WorldWideScience

Sample records for global spreading rates

  1. Predicting Agency Rating Migrations with Spread Implied Ratings

    OpenAIRE

    Jianming Kou; Dr Simone Varotto

    2005-01-01

    Investors traditionally rely on credit ratings to price debt instruments. However, rating agencies are known to be prudent in their approach to rating revisions, which results in delayed ratings adjustments to mutating credit conditions. For a large set of eurobonds we derive credit spread implied ratings and compare them with the ratings issued by rating agencies. Our results indicate that spread implied ratings often anticipate future movement of agency ratings and hence could help track cr...

  2. Age, spreading rates, and spreading asymmetry of the world's ocean crust

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The authors present four companion digital models of the age, age uncertainty, spreading rates and spreading asymmetries of the world's ocean basins as geographic...

  3. Credit ratings and bond spreads of the GIIPS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Vries, Tim; de Haan, Jakob

    2016-01-01

    We examine the relationship between credit ratings and bond yield spreads of peripheral countries in the euro area (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain) for the period 1995-2014. Since 2012, bond spreads of those countries have come down very fast, whereas credit ratings have hardly changed.

  4. The Real Interest Rate Spread as a Monetary Policy Indicator

    OpenAIRE

    Browne, Frank; Everett, Mary

    2006-01-01

    This paper employs a consumption-based capital asset pricing model to derive the generalised Fisher equation, in order to estimate the natural rate of interest and corresponding real interest rate spread for the US. Analysis reveals not only is the estimated real interest rate spread a useful measure of the degree of looseness/tightness in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance, but also the variable contributes substantially to an understanding of the evolution of US inflation over the...

  5. The global spread of HIV-1 subtype B epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magiorkinis, Gkikas; Angelis, Konstantinos; Mamais, Ioannis; Katzourakis, Aris; Hatzakis, Angelos; Albert, Jan; Lawyer, Glenn; Hamouda, Osamah; Struck, Daniel; Vercauteren, Jurgen; Wensing, Annemarie; Alexiev, Ivailo; Åsjö, Birgitta; Balotta, Claudia; Gomes, Perpétua; Camacho, Ricardo J; Coughlan, Suzie; Griskevicius, Algirdas; Grossman, Zehava; Horban, Anders; Kostrikis, Leondios G; Lepej, Snjezana J; Liitsola, Kirsi; Linka, Marek; Nielsen, Claus; Otelea, Dan; Paredes, Roger; Poljak, Mario; Puchhammer-Stöckl, Elizabeth; Schmit, Jean Claude; Sönnerborg, Anders; Staneková, Danica; Stanojevic, Maja; Stylianou, Dora C; Boucher, Charles A B; Nikolopoulos, Georgios; Vasylyeva, Tetyana; Friedman, Samuel R; van de Vijver, David; Angarano, Gioacchino; Chaix, Marie-Laure; de Luca, Andrea; Korn, Klaus; Loveday, Clive; Soriano, Vincent; Yerly, Sabine; Zazzi, Mauricio; Vandamme, Anne-Mieke; Paraskevis, Dimitrios

    2016-12-01

    Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) was discovered in the early 1980s when the virus had already established a pandemic. For at least three decades the epidemic in the Western World has been dominated by subtype B infections, as part of a sub-epidemic that traveled from Africa through Haiti to United States. However, the pattern of the subsequent spread still remains poorly understood. Here we analyze a large dataset of globally representative HIV-1 subtype B strains to map their spread around the world over the last 50years and describe significant spread patterns. We show that subtype B travelled from North America to Western Europe in different occasions, while Central/Eastern Europe remained isolated for the most part of the early epidemic. Looking with more detail in European countries we see that the United Kingdom, France and Switzerland exchanged viral isolates with non-European countries than with European ones. The observed pattern is likely to mirror geopolitical landmarks in the post-World War II era, namely the rise and the fall of the Iron Curtain and the European colonialism. In conclusion, HIV-1 spread through specific migration routes which are consistent with geopolitical factors that affected human activities during the last 50years, such as migration, tourism and trade. Our findings support the argument that epidemic control policies should be global and incorporate political and socioeconomic factors. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Epidemic spread in coupled populations with seasonally varying migration rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muzyczyn, Adam; Shaw, Leah B.

    2009-03-01

    The H5N1 strain of avian influenza has spread worldwide, and this spread may be due to seasonal migration of birds and mixing of birds from different regions in the wintering grounds. We studied a multipatch model for avian influenza with seasonally varying migration rates. The bird population was divided into two spatially distinct patches, or subpopulations. Within each patch, the disease followed the SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model for epidemic spread. Migration rates were varied periodically, with a net flux toward the breeding grounds during the spring and towards the wintering grounds during the fall. The case of two symmetric patches reduced to single-patch SIR dynamics. However, asymmetry in the birth and contact rates in the breeding grounds and wintering grounds led to bifurcations to longer period orbits and chaotic dynamics. We studied the bifurcation structure of the model and the phase relationships between outbreaks in the two patches.

  7. The Impact of Indonesia Sovereign Credit Rating Upgrades and Investment Grade Status on the Sovereign Spread Changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dwi Anggi Novianti

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Getting sovereign credit rating upgrades and achieving investment grade status are main goals for countries in order to gain lower yield spread and cost of borrowing. By using ordinary least square method, this research is aimed to analyze the impact of Indonesia sovereign credit rating up-grade and investment grade status on sovereign spread changes. The result shows that the sovereign credit rating upgrades within speculative grade category and investment grade status for Indonesia do not significantly impact sovereign spread reduction. On the other hand, the global condition, especially global risk appetite, has significant impact to Indonesia sovereign yield spread. The research also indicates that Indonesia macroeconomic fundamentals do not significantly explain the movement of sovereign yield spread. Keywords: Yield spread, sovereign credit rating, investment grade, Indonesia

  8. Determinants of Commercial banks' interest rate spreads in Botswana

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The paper investigated the determinants of commercial banks' interest rate spreads in Botswana using time series cross-sectional analysis for the period of 2004Q1 to 2014Q4. Factors empirically tested are bank-specific, industry-specific and macroeconomic data. Results indicate that bank intermediation, GDP, inflation ...

  9. Global stability of a two-mediums rumor spreading model with media coverage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huo, Liang'an; Wang, Li; Song, Guoxiang

    2017-09-01

    Rumor spreading is a typical form of social communication and plays a significant role in social life, and media coverage has a great influence on the spread of rumor. In this paper, we present a new model with two media coverage to investigate the impact of the different mediums on rumor spreading. Then, we calculate the equilibria of the model and construct the reproduction number ℜ0. And we prove the global asymptotic stability of equilibria by using Lyapunov functions. Finally, we can conclude that the transition rate of the ignorants between two mediums has a direct effect on the scale of spreaders, and different media coverage has significant effects on the dynamics behaviors of rumor spreading.

  10. Global warming and spread of infectious diseases; Globale Erwaermung und Ausbreitung von Infektionskrankheiten

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ebert, B.; Fleischer, B. [Bernhard-Nocht-Institut fuer Tropenmedizin (BNI), Hamburg (Germany)

    2005-01-15

    At the end of the twentieth century, tropical infectious diseases increased despite earlier successes of eradication campaigns. As a global warming of 1.4-5.8 C is anticipated to occur by 2100, mainly the vector-borne tropical diseases that are particularly sensitive to climate are expected to spread. Although biological reasons seemingly support this hypothesis, ecological and socio-economic factors have in the past proven to be stronger driving forces for the spread of infectious diseases than climate. (orig.)

  11. Spreading rate dependence of gravity anomalies along oceanic transform faults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregg, Patricia M; Lin, Jian; Behn, Mark D; Montési, Laurent G J

    2007-07-12

    Mid-ocean ridge morphology and crustal accretion are known to depend on the spreading rate of the ridge. Slow-spreading mid-ocean-ridge segments exhibit significant crustal thinning towards transform and non-transform offsets, which is thought to arise from a three-dimensional process of buoyant mantle upwelling and melt migration focused beneath the centres of ridge segments. In contrast, fast-spreading mid-ocean ridges are characterized by smaller, segment-scale variations in crustal thickness, which reflect more uniform mantle upwelling beneath the ridge axis. Here we present a systematic study of the residual mantle Bouguer gravity anomaly of 19 oceanic transform faults that reveals a strong correlation between gravity signature and spreading rate. Previous studies have shown that slow-slipping transform faults are marked by more positive gravity anomalies than their adjacent ridge segments, but our analysis reveals that intermediate and fast-slipping transform faults exhibit more negative gravity anomalies than their adjacent ridge segments. This finding indicates that there is a mass deficit at intermediate- and fast-slipping transform faults, which could reflect increased rock porosity, serpentinization of mantle peridotite, and/or crustal thickening. The most negative anomalies correspond to topographic highs flanking the transform faults, rather than to transform troughs (where deformation is probably focused and porosity and alteration are expected to be greatest), indicating that crustal thickening could be an important contributor to the negative gravity anomalies observed. This finding in turn suggests that three-dimensional magma accretion may occur near intermediate- and fast-slipping transform faults.

  12. Predicting online ratings based on the opinion spreading process

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Xing-Sheng; Zhou, Ming-Yang; Zhuo, Zhao; Fu, Zhong-Qian; Liu, Jian-Guo

    2015-10-01

    Predicting users' online ratings is always a challenge issue and has drawn lots of attention. In this paper, we present a rating prediction method by combining the user opinion spreading process with the collaborative filtering algorithm, where user similarity is defined by measuring the amount of opinion a user transfers to another based on the primitive user-item rating matrix. The proposed method could produce a more precise rating prediction for each unrated user-item pair. In addition, we introduce a tunable parameter λ to regulate the preferential diffusion relevant to the degree of both opinion sender and receiver. The numerical results for Movielens and Netflix data sets show that this algorithm has a better accuracy than the standard user-based collaborative filtering algorithm using Cosine and Pearson correlation without increasing computational complexity. By tuning λ, our method could further boost the prediction accuracy when using Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) as measurements. In the optimal cases, on Movielens and Netflix data sets, the corresponding algorithmic accuracy (MAE and RMSE) are improved 11.26% and 8.84%, 13.49% and 10.52% compared to the item average method, respectively.

  13. An empirical model of global spread-f occurrence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singleton, D.G.

    1974-09-01

    A method of combining models of ionospheric F-layer peak electron density and irregularity incremental electron density into a model of the occurrence probability of the frequency spreading component of spread-F is presented. The predictions of the model are compared with spread-F occurrence data obtained under sunspot maximum conditions. Good agreement is obtained for latitudes less than 70 0 geomagnetic. At higher latitudes, the inclusion of a 'blackout factor' in the model allows it to accurately represent the data and, in so doing, resolves an apparent discrepancy in the occurrence statistics at high latitudes. The blackout factor is ascribed to the effect of polar blackout on the spread-F statistics and/or the lack of a definitve incremental electron density model for irregularities at polar latitudes. Ways of isolating these effects and assessing their relative importance in the blackout factor are discussed. The model, besides providing estimates of spread-F occurrence on a worldwide basis, which will be of value in the engineering of HF and VHF communications, also furnishes a means of further checking the irregularity incremental electron density model on which it is based. (author)

  14. Comparing methods for measuring the rate of spread of invading populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marius Gilbert; Andrew. Liebhold

    2010-01-01

    Measuring rates of spread during biological invasions is important for predicting where and when invading organisms will spread in the future as well as for quantifying the influence of environmental conditions on invasion speed. While several methods have been proposed in the literature to measure spread rates, a comprehensive comparison of their accuracy when applied...

  15. Impact of the topology of global macroeconomic network on the spreading of economic crises.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Kyu-Min; Yang, Jae-Suk; Kim, Gunn; Lee, Jaesung; Goh, Kwang-Il; Kim, In-mook

    2011-03-31

    Throughout economic history, the global economy has experienced recurring crises. The persistent recurrence of such economic crises calls for an understanding of their generic features rather than treating them as singular events. The global economic system is a highly complex system and can best be viewed in terms of a network of interacting macroeconomic agents. In this regard, from the perspective of collective network dynamics, here we explore how the topology of the global macroeconomic network affects the patterns of spreading of economic crises. Using a simple toy model of crisis spreading, we demonstrate that an individual country's role in crisis spreading is not only dependent on its gross macroeconomic capacities, but also on its local and global connectivity profile in the context of the world economic network. We find that on one hand clustering of weak links at the regional scale can significantly aggravate the spread of crises, but on the other hand the current network structure at the global scale harbors higher tolerance of extreme crises compared to more "globalized" random networks. These results suggest that there can be a potential hidden cost in the ongoing globalization movement towards establishing less-constrained, trans-regional economic links between countries, by increasing vulnerability of the global economic system to extreme crises.

  16. The effects of global awareness on the spreading of epidemics in multiplex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zang, Haijuan

    2018-02-01

    It is increasingly recognized that understanding the complex interplay patterns between epidemic spreading and human behavioral is a key component of successful infection control efforts. In particular, individuals can obtain the information about epidemics and respond by altering their behaviors, which can affect the spreading dynamics as well. Besides, because the existence of herd-like behaviors, individuals are very easy to be influenced by the global awareness information. Here, in this paper, we propose a global awareness controlled spreading model (GACS) to explore the interplay between the coupled dynamical processes. Using the global microscopic Markov chain approach, we obtain the analytical results for the epidemic thresholds, which shows a high accuracy by comparison with lots of Monte Carlo simulations. Furthermore, considering other classical models used to describe the coupled dynamical processes, including the local awareness controlled contagion spreading (LACS) model, Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible-Unaware-Aware-Unaware (SIS-UAU) model and the single layer occasion, we make a detailed comparisons between the GACS with them. Although the comparisons and results depend on the parameters each model has, the GACS model always shows a strong restrain effects on epidemic spreading process. Our results give us a better understanding of the coupled dynamical processes and highlights the importance of considering the spreading of global awareness in the control of epidemics.

  17. Are the Intraday Effects of Central Bank Intervention on Exchange Rate Spreads Asymmetric and State Dependent?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fatum, Rasmus; Pedersen, Jesper; Sørensen, Peter Norman

    This paper investigates the intraday effects of unannounced foreign exchange intervention on bid-ask exchange rate spreads using official intraday intervention data provided by the Danish central bank. Our starting point is a simple theoretical model of the bid-ask spread which we use to formulate...... exert a significant influence on the exchange rate spread, but in opposite directions: intervention purchases of the smaller currency, on average, reduce the spread while intervention sales, on average, increase the spread. We also show that intervention only affects the exchange rate spread when...... the state of the market is not abnormally volatile. Our results are consistent with the notion that illiquidity arises when traders fear speculative pressure against the smaller currency and confirms the asymmetry hypothesis of our theoretical model....

  18. Estimating the spread rate of urea formaldehyde adhesive on birch (Betula pendula Roth) veneer using fluorescence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toni Antikainen; Anti Rohumaa; Christopher G. Hunt; Mari Levirinne; Mark Hughes

    2015-01-01

    In plywood production, human operators find it difficult to precisely monitor the spread rate of adhesive in real-time. In this study, macroscopic fluorescence was used to estimate spread rate (SR) of urea formaldehyde adhesive on birch (Betula pendula Roth) veneer. This method could be an option when developing automated real-time SR measurement for...

  19. Determinants of Commercial banks' interest rate spreads in Botswana

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The paper investigated the determinants of commercial banks' interest rate ... Index (HHI), a proxy measure of the degree of competition in a market ... the difference between prime lending rate and the savings account rate. ... as profit maximizing firms whose primary business is to offer deposits and loan ..... and Accounting.

  20. Epidemic spreading and global stability of an SIS model with an infective vector on complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Huiyan; Fu, Xinchu

    2015-10-01

    In this paper, we present a new SIS model with delay on scale-free networks. The model is suitable to describe some epidemics which are not only transmitted by a vector but also spread between individuals by direct contacts. In view of the biological relevance and real spreading process, we introduce a delay to denote average incubation period of disease in a vector. By mathematical analysis, we obtain the epidemic threshold and prove the global stability of equilibria. The simulation shows the delay will effect the epidemic spreading. Finally, we investigate and compare two major immunization strategies, uniform immunization and targeted immunization.

  1. PENGARUH NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH DAN TINGKAT SUKU BUNGA TERHADAP CREDIT SPREADS RATE OBLIGASI DI INDONESIA PERIODE 2011-2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nora Amelda Rizal

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Risiko kebangkrutan merupakan hal yang sangat dihindari oleh setiap investor. Risiko ini berlaku tidak hanya pada sekuritas berupa saham, namun juga berlaku pada obligasi serta turunannya. Sejak krisis global yang terjadi pada tahun 2008, risiko kebangkrutan ini jelas terlihat pada obligasi korporasi dimana risiko ini terhubung dengan risiko pasar dan risiko kredit. Menurut Rizal (2016 harga obligasi dapat dihubungkan langs ung dengan kedua risiko tersebut . R i siko pasar dapat dilihat dari tingkat pengembalian bunga ( rate of return dan tingkat inflasi ( inflation rate , sedangkan representasi dari ri siko kredit merupakan ri siko rentang kredit ( credit Spreads rate , dimana rentang kredit ini sendiri pun kembali terkait dengan pertukaran kurs asing t erhadap rupiah, seperti ri siko pasar tingkat suku bunga ( rate of return dan tingkat inflasi ( inflation rate . Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menga nalisa lebih lanjut mengenai fak tor yang mempengaruhi credit Spreads rate obligasi di Indonesia. Faktor - fakto r tersebut adalah nilai tukar rupiah dan tingkat pengembalian. Nilai tukar antara US Dollar dan Rupiah akan dipakai untuk mewakili nilai tukar rupiah. Untuk tingkat pengembalian bunga yang dipakai adalah suku bunga tetap yang dikeluarkan oleh Bank Indonesi a. Obligasi yang diteliti adalah obligasi korporasi pada sector telekomunikasi dengan rentang waktu penelitian antara 2011 - 2015. Hasil yang didapat di dalam penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa nilai tukar Rupiah mempunyai pengaruh yang signifikan dan bersif at negatif terhadap Credit Spreads Rate Obligasi di Indonesia periode 2011 - 2015. Sedangkan tingkat suku bunga tidak mempunyai pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap Credit Spreads Rate Obligasi di Indonesia periode 2011 - 2015

  2. What factors drive interest rate spread of commercial banks? Empirical evidence from Kenya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maureen Were

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper empirically investigates the determinants of interest rate spread in Kenya's banking sector based on panel data analysis. The findings show that bank-specific factors play a significant role in the determination of interest rate spreads. These include bank size, credit risk as measured by non-performing loans to total loans ratio, return on average assets and operating costs, all of which positively influence interest rate spreads. On the other hand, higher bank liquidity ratio has a negative effect on the spreads. On average, big banks have higher spreads compared to small banks. The impact of macroeconomic factors such as real economic growth is insignificant. The effect of the monetary policy rate is positive but not highly significant. The results largely reflect the structure of the banking industry, in which a few big banks control a significant share of the market.

  3. Does Central Bank Quality Determine Sovereign Ratings and Credit Default Swap Spreads: Evidence from the World?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramlall Indranarain

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This study innovates from prior research which focuses on the determinants of sovereign ratings and credit default swap spreads for a large sample of countries by incorporating the quality of central banks, let alone refined proxies. Findings show that the explanatory power of both sovereign ratings and CDS spreads model improve by a hefty 11 percent in case of sovereign ratings and 6 to 9 percent in the case of CDS spreads when central bank quality is incorporated. Such a finding bolters the notion that institutional quality does play a preponderant role when it comes to assessing country risk, making it a systematic component of institutional quality. The effect of labour participation implies that countries buffeted by stronger effects of an ageing population have greater propensity of increases in CDS spreads. Evidence is also found as to the driving dynamics of CDS spreads and sovereign ratings to be distinct. Our results hold robust post tackling for endogeneity problem.

  4. Determinants of Commercial Banks' Interest Rate Spread in Namibia ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    reduces net interest margin whilst the liquidity levels of a commercial bank increases ... and the capital ratio are not important determinants of the net interest margin. .... profitable and resilient to shocks including the recent financial crisis .... affects its business operations including its decision of what interest rate to charge.

  5. Evolution of spreading rate and H2 production by serpentinization at mid-ocean ridges from 200 Ma to Present

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreani, M.; García del Real, P.; Daniel, I.; Wright, N.; Coltice, N.

    2017-12-01

    Mid-oceanic ridge (MOR) spreading rate spatially varies today from 20 to 200 mm/yr and geological records attest of important temporal variations, at least during the past 200 My. The spreading rate has a direct impact on the mechanisms accomodating extension (magmatic vs tectonic), hence on the nature of the rocks forming the oceanic lithosphere. The latter is composed of variable amount of magmatic and mantle rocks, that dominate at fast and (ultra-) slow spreading ridges, respectively. Serpentinization of mantle rocks contributes to global fluxes and notably to those of hydrogen and carbon by providing a pathways for dihydrogen (H2) production, carbone storage by mineralization, and carbon reduction to CH4 and possibly complex organic compounds. Quantification of the global chemical impact of serpentinization through geological time requires a coupling of geochemical parameters with plate-tectonic reconstructions. Here we quantify serpentinization extent and concurrent H2 production at MOR from the Jurassic (200 Ma) to present day (0 Ma). We coupled mean values of relevant petro-chemical parameters such as the proportion of mantle rocks, initial iron in olivine, iron redox state in serpentinites, % of serpentinization to high-resolution models of plate motion within the GPlates infrastructure to estimate the lengths in 1 Myr intervals for the global MOR plate boundary (spreading and transform components), and spreading ridges as a function of their rate. The model sensitivity to selected parameters has been tested. The results show that fragmentation of Pangea resulted in elevated H2 rates (>1012 to 1013 mol/yr) starting at 160 Ma compared to Late Mesozoic (<160 Ma) rates (<1011-1012 mol/yr). From 160 Ma to present, the coupled opening of the Atlantic and Indian oceans as well as the variation in spreading rates maintained H2 generation in the 1012 mol/yr level, but with significant excursions mainly related to the length of ultra-slow spreading segments. For

  6. Global warming and interest rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rey, Francisco C.

    1999-01-01

    The socio-economical growth of our country will yield unavoidably a sustained growth on the energy demand, particularly on the electricity demand. If the expected assumptions are fulfilled, the needed power needed to cover the electrical demand between 1997 and 2020 will almost triple, and the natural gas consumption by the generating facilities and CO 2 emissions in that sector will multiply by five. If the emissions of other sector grow at the same rate as those of the electric sector the level of the emissions in our country will be equivalent to those of the developed countries at present. It is imperative to put limits to the growth of those emissions. In order to avoid that limiting of the emissions to be just a declaration, it is necessary to find and implement mechanisms that will lead to that goal. In the electric sector, and in order to promote the use of energy sources free of those emissions, the possible measures are: Application of an emission tax of U$ 10 (or higher) per ton of CO 2 and use of the resulting funds to cause a decrease in the interest rate applied to electric generation projects which do not emit greenhouse gases. Contributions by the countries responsible for the present level of CO 2 in the atmosphere to lower the incidence of the initial capital costs on the generation costs for the same type of projects (via low rate loans or subsidies). Being active any one of these two mechanisms (or both), will provoke those clean generation sources to compete successfully and will allow them to be a valuable tool to effectively diminish the growth of the emissions of those gases from the electric sector. Besides, a tax of such magnitude would not provoke an important increase on the electric energy prices. If any mechanism is implemented which intends to effectively diminish the CO 2 emissions, the first important project to be completed is the completion of the Atucha II power station. (author)

  7. Evolutionary history and global spread of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis Beijing lineage.

    OpenAIRE

    Merker Matthias; Blin Camille; Mona Stefano; Duforet-Frebourg Nicolas; Lecher Sophie; Willery Eve; Blum Michael G B; Rüsch-Gerdes Sabine; Mokrousov Igor; Aleksic Eman; Allix-Béguec Caroline; Antierens Annick; Augustynowicz-Kopec Ewa; Ballif Marie; Barletta Francesca

    2015-01-01

    International audience; Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains of the Beijing lineage are globally distributed and are associated with the massive spread of multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis in Eurasia. Here we reconstructed the biogeographical structure and evolutionary history of this lineage by genetic analysis of 4,987 isolates from 99 countries and whole-genome sequencing of 110 representative isolates. We show that this lineage initially originated in the Far East, from where it radiat...

  8. The intraday effects of central bank intervention on exchange rate spreads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fatum, Rasmus; Pedersen, Jesper; Sørensen, Peter Norman

    2013-01-01

    We investigate the intraday effects of intra-marginal intervention in a horizontal band on the exchange rate spread. Official intraday data on Danish intervention transactions in the ERM II, the Exchange Rate Mechanism of the European Union, facilitates our analysis. We show that intervention...

  9. Ocean, Spreading Centre

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Krishna, K.S.

    over the global midoceanic ridges have found some explicit relationships between spreading rate, seismic structure, and ridge-axis morphology. Bibliography Detrick, R. S., Buhl, P., Vera, E., Mutter, J., Orcutt, J., Madsen, J., and Brocher, T., 1987...

  10. A laboratory-scale comparison of rate of spread model predictions using chaparral fuel beds – preliminary results

    Science.gov (United States)

    D.R. Weise; E. Koo; X. Zhou; S. Mahalingam

    2011-01-01

    Observed fire spread rates from 240 laboratory fires in horizontally-oriented single-species live fuel beds were compared to predictions from various implementations and modifications of the Rothermel rate of spread model and a physical fire spread model developed by Pagni and Koo. Packing ratio of the laboratory fuel beds was generally greater than that observed in...

  11. Instantaneous global nitrous oxide photochemical rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnston, H.S.; Serang, O.; Podolske, J.

    1979-01-01

    In recent years, vertical profiles of nitrous oxide have been measured by balloon up to midstratosphere at several latitudes between 63 0 N and 73 0 S, including one profile in the tropical zone at 9 0 N. Two rocket flights measured nitrous oxide mixing ratios at 44 and 49 km. From these experimental data plus a large amount of interpolation and extrapolation, we have estimated a global distribution of nitrous oxide up to the altitude of 50 km. With standard global distributions of oxygen and ozone we carried out instantaneous, three-dimensional, global photochemical calculations, using recently measured temperature-dependent cross sections for nitrous oxide. The altitude of maximum photolysis rate of N 2 O is about 30 km at all latitudes, and the rate of photolysis is a maximum in tropical latitudes. The altitude of maximum rate of formation of nitric oxide is latitude dependent, about 26 km at the equator, about 23 km over temperate zones, and 20 km at the summer pole. The global rate of N 2 O destruction is 6.2 x 10 27 molecules s -1 , and the global rate of formation of NO from N 2 O is 1.4 x 10 27 molecules s -1 . The global N 2 O inventory divided by the stratospheric loss rate gives a residence time of about 175 years with respect to this loss process. From the global average N 2 O profile a vertical eddy diffusion profile was derived, and this profile agrees very closely with that of Stewart and Hoffert

  12. Role for migratory wild birds in the global spread of avian influenza H5N8

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,; Ip, Hon S.

    2016-01-01

    Avian influenza viruses affect both poultry production and public health. A subtype H5N8 (clade 2.3.4.4) virus, following an outbreak in poultry in South Korea in January 2014, rapidly spread worldwide in 2014–2015. Our analysis of H5N8 viral sequences, epidemiological investigations, waterfowl migration, and poultry trade showed that long-distance migratory birds can play a major role in the global spread of avian influenza viruses. Further, we found that the hemagglutinin of clade 2.3.4.4 virus was remarkably promiscuous, creating reassortants with multiple neuraminidase subtypes. Improving our understanding of the circumpolar circulation of avian influenza viruses in migratory waterfowl will help to provide early warning of threats from avian influenza to poultry, and potentially human, health.

  13. Evolutionary history and global spread of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis Beijing lineage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merker, Matthias; Blin, Camille; Mona, Stefano; Duforet-Frebourg, Nicolas; Lecher, Sophie; Willery, Eve; Blum, Michael G B; Rüsch-Gerdes, Sabine; Mokrousov, Igor; Aleksic, Eman; Allix-Béguec, Caroline; Antierens, Annick; Augustynowicz-Kopeć, Ewa; Ballif, Marie; Barletta, Francesca; Beck, Hans Peter; Barry, Clifton E; Bonnet, Maryline; Borroni, Emanuele; Campos-Herrero, Isolina; Cirillo, Daniela; Cox, Helen; Crowe, Suzanne; Crudu, Valeriu; Diel, Roland; Drobniewski, Francis; Fauville-Dufaux, Maryse; Gagneux, Sébastien; Ghebremichael, Solomon; Hanekom, Madeleine; Hoffner, Sven; Jiao, Wei-wei; Kalon, Stobdan; Kohl, Thomas A; Kontsevaya, Irina; Lillebæk, Troels; Maeda, Shinji; Nikolayevskyy, Vladyslav; Rasmussen, Michael; Rastogi, Nalin; Samper, Sofia; Sanchez-Padilla, Elisabeth; Savic, Branislava; Shamputa, Isdore Chola; Shen, Adong; Sng, Li-Hwei; Stakenas, Petras; Toit, Kadri; Varaine, Francis; Vukovic, Dragana; Wahl, Céline; Warren, Robin; Supply, Philip; Niemann, Stefan; Wirth, Thierry

    2015-03-01

    Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains of the Beijing lineage are globally distributed and are associated with the massive spread of multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis in Eurasia. Here we reconstructed the biogeographical structure and evolutionary history of this lineage by genetic analysis of 4,987 isolates from 99 countries and whole-genome sequencing of 110 representative isolates. We show that this lineage initially originated in the Far East, from where it radiated worldwide in several waves. We detected successive increases in population size for this pathogen over the last 200 years, practically coinciding with the Industrial Revolution, the First World War and HIV epidemics. Two MDR clones of this lineage started to spread throughout central Asia and Russia concomitantly with the collapse of the public health system in the former Soviet Union. Mutations identified in genes putatively under positive selection and associated with virulence might have favored the expansion of the most successful branches of the lineage.

  14. Dynamic Correlations of Sovereign Bond Yield Spreads in the Euro zone and the Role of Credit Rating Agencies' Downgrades

    OpenAIRE

    Antonakakis, Nikolaos

    2012-01-01

    The European debt crisis that followed the global financial crisis, erupting first with Greece, then Ireland, Portugal, Italy and Spain, has threatened the very existence of the Euro zone. In this paper we examine the evolution of dynamic co-movements of sovereign bond yield spreads (BYS) in the Euro zone and the role of credit rating agency downgrades on those co-movements. Estimation results from a multivariate DCC-GARCH model on daily BYS data for nine Euro zone countries over the period 2...

  15. Error associated with model predictions of wildland fire rate of spread

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miguel G. Cruz; Martin E. Alexander

    2015-01-01

    How well can we expect to predict the spread rate of wildfires and prescribed fires? The degree of accuracy in model predictions of wildland fire behaviour characteristics are dependent on the model's applicability to a given situation, the validity of the model's relationships, and the reliability of the model input data (Alexander and Cruz 2013b#. We...

  16. Fuel treatment effectiveness in reducing fire intensity and spread rate - An experimental overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eric Mueller; Nicholas Skowronski; Albert Simeoni; Kenneth Clark; Robert Kremens; William Mell; Michael Gallagher; Jan Thomas; Alexander Filkov; Mohamad El Houssami; John Hom; Bret Butler

    2014-01-01

    Fuel treatments represent a significant component of the wildfire mitigation strategy in the United States. However, the lack of research aimed at quantifying the explicit effectiveness of fuel treatments in reducing wildfire intensity and spread rate limits our ability to make educated decisions about the type and placement of these treatments. As part of a larger...

  17. Analytical solution of a stochastic model of risk spreading with global coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morita, Satoru; Yoshimura, Jin

    2013-11-01

    We study a stochastic matrix model to understand the mechanics of risk spreading (or bet hedging) by dispersion. Up to now, this model has been mostly dealt with numerically, except for the well-mixed case. Here, we present an analytical result that shows that optimal dispersion leads to Zipf's law. Moreover, we found that the arithmetic ensemble average of the total growth rate converges to the geometric one, because the sample size is finite.

  18. Introduction: simultaneously global and local: reassessing smallpox vaccination and its spread, 1789-1900.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharya, Sanjoy; Brimnes, Niels

    2009-01-01

    The last two decades have seen a reawakening of scholarly interest in the history of smallpox prevention. Accounts of vaccination and others efforts at controlling smallpox have moved away from heroic narratives toward more nuanced and contextualized understandings. It is now accepted that several viruses traveled under the vaccine label from the outset, and it has been demonstrated that a variety of techniques were used to perform vaccination operations. The character of nineteenth century sea voyages that took the vaccine to distant territories has also been re-examined; sometimes the spread of the vaccine was caused by private networks and ad hoc decisions, while at other times it was the result of enterprises with close resemblances to contemporary centralized vaccination campaigns. Looking beyond Europe and North America we encounter a variety of state attitudes toward vaccination, ranging from concentrated efforts to spread the technique to efforts more uncertain and diluted. Although the reluctance to accept vaccination has been amply documented, recent studies emphasize this should not be attributed to simplistic dichotomies of modernity versus tradition or science versus culture; instead, instances of resistance are best studied as specific contextualized interactions. Indeed, factors like favorable geography, strong bureaucratic structures, and the absence of variolation seem to have helped the relatively smooth transfer of vaccination technologies. Perhaps most important, recent research encourages us to continue to study smallpox vaccination as a phenomenon that was simultaneously global and local.

  19. MACROECONOMIC AND MARKET DETERMINANTS OF INTEREST RATE SPREAD: EVIDENCE FROM ALBANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brunilda NELI

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The banking system, as the most important component of the financial system in Albania, plays a crucial role in economic development. Measuring the efficiency of the intermediation system requires special attention because of its implications on the level of investments, savings, resource allocation etc. The most common indicator for the efficiency of the banking system is the cost of intermediation, measured by the spread of interest rates (the difference between the average lending rate and the average deposit rate. The study aims to analyze the trend of interest rate spread (IRS in Albania for the period 2005-2014 based on a comparative analysis with other countries and to identify the factors with significant impact on the level of IRS in the local currency. It is based on the empirical analysis of several macroeconomic and market factors that determine IRS, used in previous studies in this field, but also incorporating other elements that are associated with the characteristics of the Albanian system. Albania has experienced high IRS during the last decade, with large fluctuations, especially in the local currency. The results of the study based on quarterly panel data for the period 2005-2014 show that IRS in Albania is negatively affected by the level of development of the banking sector and the discount rate, while inflation, deficit rate and monetary supply put positive pressure on this indicator.

  20. Mitochondrial Phylogenomics Resolves the Global Spread of Higher Termites, Ecosystem Engineers of the Tropics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourguignon, Thomas; Lo, Nathan; Šobotník, Jan; Ho, Simon Y W; Iqbal, Naeem; Coissac, Eric; Lee, Maria; Jendryka, Martin M; Sillam-Dussès, David; Krížková, Barbora; Roisin, Yves; Evans, Theodore A

    2017-03-01

    The higher termites (Termitidae) are keystone species and ecosystem engineers. They have exceptional biomass and play important roles in decomposition of dead plant matter, in soil manipulation, and as the primary food for many animals, especially in the tropics. Higher termites are most diverse in rainforests, with estimated origins in the late Eocene (∼54 Ma), postdating the breakup of Pangaea and Gondwana when most continents became separated. Since termites are poor fliers, their origin and spread across the globe requires alternative explanation. Here, we show that higher termites originated 42-54 Ma in Africa and subsequently underwent at least 24 dispersal events between the continents in two main periods. Using phylogenetic analyses of mitochondrial genomes from 415 species, including all higher termite taxonomic and feeding groups, we inferred 10 dispersal events to South America and Asia 35-23 Ma, coinciding with the sharp decrease in global temperature, sea level, and rainforest cover in the Oligocene. After global temperatures increased, 23-5 Ma, there was only one more dispersal to South America but 11 to Asia and Australia, and one dispersal back to Africa. Most of these dispersal events were transoceanic and might have occurred via floating logs. The spread of higher termites across oceans was helped by the novel ecological opportunities brought about by environmental and ecosystem change, and led termites to become one of the few insect groups with specialized mammal predators. This has parallels with modern invasive species that have been able to thrive in human-impacted ecosystems. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  1. Time Scale Analysis of Interest Rate Spreads and Output Using Wavelets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Gallegati

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper adds to the literature on the information content of different spreads for real activity by explicitly taking into account the time scale relationship between a variety of monetary and financial indicators (real interest rate, term and credit spreads and output growth. By means of wavelet-based exploratory data analysis we obtain richer results relative to the aggregate analysis by identifying the dominant scales of variation in the data and the scales and location at which structural breaks have occurred. Moreover, using the “double residuals” regression analysis on a scale-by-scale basis, we find that changes in the spread in several markets have different information content for output at different time frames. This is consistent with the idea that allowing for different time scales of variation in the data can provide a fruitful understanding of the complex dynamics of economic relationships between variables with non-stationary or transient components, certainly richer than those obtained using standard time domain methods.

  2. The Relation Between Plate Spreading Rate, Crustal Thickness and Axial Relief at Mid-Ocean Ridges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Z.; Buck, W. R.

    2017-12-01

    Variations in axial valley relief and in faulting at plate spreading centers are clearly related to magma supply and axial lithospheric structure. Previous models that consider the interaction of magmatic dikes with lithospheric stretching do not successfully reproduce both of these trends. We present the first model that reproduces these trends by making simple assumptions about the partitioning of magma between dikes, gabbros and extrusives. A key concept is that dikes open not only in the brittle axial lithosphere but also into the underlying ductile crust, where they cool to form gabbro. The amount of gabbro so intruded depends on magma pressure that is related to axial relief. The deeper the valley the less magma goes into gabbros and the more magma is available for dikes to accommodate plate separation. We define the fraction of plate separation rate accommodated by dikes as M. If Mreasonable. Finally, we describe themo-mechanical models that allow us to relate plate spreading rate and crustal thickness and to axial valley depth.

  3. Real-time numerical forecast of global epidemic spreading: case study of 2009 A/H1N1pdm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tizzoni Michele

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Mathematical and computational models for infectious diseases are increasingly used to support public-health decisions; however, their reliability is currently under debate. Real-time forecasts of epidemic spread using data-driven models have been hindered by the technical challenges posed by parameter estimation and validation. Data gathered for the 2009 H1N1 influenza crisis represent an unprecedented opportunity to validate real-time model predictions and define the main success criteria for different approaches. Methods We used the Global Epidemic and Mobility Model to generate stochastic simulations of epidemic spread worldwide, yielding (among other measures the incidence and seeding events at a daily resolution for 3,362 subpopulations in 220 countries. Using a Monte Carlo Maximum Likelihood analysis, the model provided an estimate of the seasonal transmission potential during the early phase of the H1N1 pandemic and generated ensemble forecasts for the activity peaks in the northern hemisphere in the fall/winter wave. These results were validated against the real-life surveillance data collected in 48 countries, and their robustness assessed by focusing on 1 the peak timing of the pandemic; 2 the level of spatial resolution allowed by the model; and 3 the clinical attack rate and the effectiveness of the vaccine. In addition, we studied the effect of data incompleteness on the prediction reliability. Results Real-time predictions of the peak timing are found to be in good agreement with the empirical data, showing strong robustness to data that may not be accessible in real time (such as pre-exposure immunity and adherence to vaccination campaigns, but that affect the predictions for the attack rates. The timing and spatial unfolding of the pandemic are critically sensitive to the level of mobility data integrated into the model. Conclusions Our results show that large-scale models can be used to provide valuable real

  4. Flame spread over electrical wire with AC electric fields: Internal circulation, fuel vapor-jet, spread rate acceleration, and molten insulator dripping

    KAUST Repository

    Lim, Seungjae

    2015-04-01

    The effect of electric field on the characteristics of flame spread along a polyethylene (PE) insulated electrical wire was investigated experimentally by varying the AC frequency and voltage applied to the wire. The results showed that the flame spread rate was accelerated due to the convergence of electric flux near the end of wire, having three distinct regimes depending on applied voltage. In each regime, several subregimes could be identified depending on AC frequency. Flame shape (height and width) and slanted direction of the spreading flame were influenced differently. Fuel-vapor jets were ejected from the molten PE surface even for the baseline case without the application of an electric field; this could be attributed to the bursting of fuel vapor bubbles generated from internal boiling at the molten PE surface. An internal circulation of molten-PE was also observed as a result of non-uniform heating by the spreading flame. In the high voltage regime with a high AC frequency, excessive dripping of molten PE led to flame extinction.

  5. Late Cretaceous and Cenozoic seafloor and oceanic basement roughness: Spreading rate, crustal age and sediment thickness correlations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bird, Robert T.; Pockalny, Robert A.

    1994-05-01

    Single-channel seismic data from the South Australian Basin and Argentine Basin, and bathymetry data from the flanks of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, East Pacific Rise and Southwest Indian Ridge are analysed to determine the root-mean-square (RMS) roughness of the seafloor and oceanic basement created at seafloor spreading rates ranging from 3 to 80 km/Ma (half-rate). For these data, crustal ages range from near zero to 85 Ma and sediment thicknesses range from near zero to over 2 km. Our results are consistent with a negative correlation of basement roughness and spreading rate where roughness decreases dramatically through the slow-spreading regime (oceanic basement roughness and spreading rate appears to have existed since the late Cretaceous for slow and intermediate spreading rates, suggesting that the fundamental processes creating abyssal hill topography may have remained the same for this time period. Basement roughness does not appear to decrease (smooth) with increasing crustal age, and therefore off-ridge degradation of abyssal hill topography by mass wasting is not detected by our data. Seismic data reveal that sediment thickness increases with increasing crustal age in the South Australian Basin and Argentine Basin, but not monotonically and with significant regional variation. We show that minor accumulations of sediment can affect roughness significantly. Average sediment accumulations of less that 50 m (for our 100 km long sample seismic profiles and half-spreading rates ocean ridges.

  6. How heterogeneous susceptibility and recovery rates affect the spread of epidemics on networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Gou

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, an extended heterogeneous SIR model is proposed, which generalizes the heterogeneous mean-field theory. Different from the traditional heterogeneous mean-field model only taking into account the heterogeneity of degree, our model considers not only the heterogeneity of degree but also the heterogeneity of susceptibility and recovery rates. Then, we analytically study the basic reproductive number and the final epidemic size. Combining with numerical simulations, it is found that the basic reproductive number depends on the mean of distributions of susceptibility and disease course when both of them are independent. If the mean of these two distributions is identical, increasing the variance of susceptibility may block the spread of epidemics, while the corresponding increase in the variance of disease course has little effect on the final epidemic size. It is also shown that positive correlations between individual susceptibility, course of disease and the square of degree make the population more vulnerable to epidemic and avail to the epidemic prevalence, whereas the negative correlations make the population less vulnerable and impede the epidemic prevalence. Keywords: Networks, Heterogeneity, Susceptibility, Recovery rates, Correlation, The basic reproductive number, The final epidemic size

  7. The global spread of Zika virus: is public and media concern justified in regions currently unaffected?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Narayan Gyawali; Richard S.Bradbury; Andrew W.Taylor-Robinson

    2016-01-01

    Background:Zika virus,an Aedes mosquito-borne flavivirus,is fast becoming a worldwide public health concern following its suspected association with over 4000 recent cases of microcephaly among newborn infants in Brazil.Discussion:Prior to its emergence in Latin America in 2015-2016,Zika was known to exist at a relatively low prevalence in parts of Africa,Asia and the Pacific islands.An extension of its apparent global dispersion may be enabled by climate conditions suitable to support the population growth ofA.aegypti and A.albopictus mosquitoes over an expanding geographical range.In addition,increased globalisation continues to pose a risk for the spread of infection.Further,suspicions of alternative modes of virus transmission (sexual and vertical),if proven,provide a platform for outbreaks in mosquito non-endemic regions as well.Since a vaccine or anti-viral therapy is not yet available,current means of disease prevention involve protection from mosquito bites,excluding pregnant females from travelling to Zika-endemic territories,and practicing safe sex in those countries.Importantly,in countries where Zika is reported as endemic,caution is advised in planning to conceive a baby until such time as the apparent association between infection with the virus and microcephaly is either confirmed or refuted.The question arises as to what advice is appropriate to give in more economically developed countries distant to the current epidemic and in which Zika has not yet been reported.Summary:Despite understandable concern among the general public that has been fuelled by the media,in regions where Zika is not present,such as North America,Europe and Australia,at this time any outbreak (initiated by an infected traveler returning from an endemic area) would very probably be contained locally.Since Aedes spp.has very limited spatial dispersal,overlapping high population densities of mosquitoes and humans would be needed to sustain a focus of infection.However,as A

  8. The global spread of Zika virus: is public and media concern justified in regions currently unaffected?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gyawali, Narayan; Bradbury, Richard S; Taylor-Robinson, Andrew W

    2016-04-19

    Zika virus, an Aedes mosquito-borne flavivirus, is fast becoming a worldwide public health concern following its suspected association with over 4000 recent cases of microcephaly among newborn infants in Brazil. Prior to its emergence in Latin America in 2015-2016, Zika was known to exist at a relatively low prevalence in parts of Africa, Asia and the Pacific islands. An extension of its apparent global dispersion may be enabled by climate conditions suitable to support the population growth of A. aegypti and A. albopictus mosquitoes over an expanding geographical range. In addition, increased globalisation continues to pose a risk for the spread of infection. Further, suspicions of alternative modes of virus transmission (sexual and vertical), if proven, provide a platform for outbreaks in mosquito non-endemic regions as well. Since a vaccine or anti-viral therapy is not yet available, current means of disease prevention involve protection from mosquito bites, excluding pregnant females from travelling to Zika-endemic territories, and practicing safe sex in those countries. Importantly, in countries where Zika is reported as endemic, caution is advised in planning to conceive a baby until such time as the apparent association between infection with the virus and microcephaly is either confirmed or refuted. The question arises as to what advice is appropriate to give in more economically developed countries distant to the current epidemic and in which Zika has not yet been reported. Despite understandable concern among the general public that has been fuelled by the media, in regions where Zika is not present, such as North America, Europe and Australia, at this time any outbreak (initiated by an infected traveler returning from an endemic area) would very probably be contained locally. Since Aedes spp. has very limited spatial dispersal, overlapping high population densities of mosquitoes and humans would be needed to sustain a focus of infection. However, as A

  9. The rate of rise, fall and gravity spreading at Siahou diapir (Southern Iran)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aftabi, P.; Roustaie, M.

    2009-04-01

    InSAR imaging can be used for extracting three dimensional information of the diapirs surface by using the phase part of the radar signal. We used InSAR to examine the cumulative surface deformation between 920706 to 060518, in a 10×10 km region surrounding the salt diapir at Kuh-e-Namak Siahou. The interferograms span periods was between 35-70 and 1248 days. Images acquired in 12 increments provided by ESA. This technique used here involves computation and subsequent combinations of interferometric phase gradient maps were used for mapping the salt flow deformation in the Zagros. Kuh-e-Namak Siahou is one of the salt extrusions currently active in the Zagros range in Iran. Salt rises from a mother salt horizon about 4 km deep and extruded as a dome with glacier on the surface. The geometry and inferred flow pattern of the salt changed between the increments, emphasizing that the extrusion rate and gravity spreading is not steady. Elevations in the salt mountain range from 1000 to 1640 meters and the displacements exceed to 20cm per year . Our InSAR study(Fig1) suggest that the dimensions and velocity of the salt movements are changing between 2 to 20mm per year(-0.7 to0.59 mm per day).The rate of surface dissolution changed between 2 to 4 cm a-1, and its rate of rise out of its orifice at 0 to 200 mm per year. The InSAR study suggest that the vigorous salt extrusion in Siahou is probably active.The deep source probably rise at a similar rates in the past but it fall in the time of InSAR study. The rate of fall was 260 mm per year(for 14 years). The InSAR images suggest that salt extrusion in Siahou flow laterally at rate 20-25 mm per year and the namakiers felt at -2 mm per month. The InSAR results indicated concentric and radial flow in the diapir from a central point at summit and spreading glaciers in sideways.Phase differences measured in our interferograms generally in the range of 0-260 mm/yr(-260 mm) within the studied period, with exceptional high rates

  10. Poverty Mapping Project: Global Subnational Infant Mortality Rates

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Global Subnational Infant Mortality Rates consists of estimates of infant mortality rates for the year 2000. The infant mortality rate for a region or country is...

  11. Constancy of local spread rates for buffelgrass (Pennisetum ciliare L.) in the Arizona Upland of the Sonoran Desert

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsson, Aaryn D.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Crimmins, Michael A.; Marsh, Stuart E.

    2012-01-01

    In North American deserts, grass invasions threaten native vegetation via competition and altered fire regimes. Accurate prediction and successful mitigation of these invasions hinge on estimation of spread rates and their degree of constancy in time and space. We used high-resolution aerial photographs from 11 sites in the Santa Catalina Mountains, southern Arizona to reconstruct the spread of buffelgrass (Pennisetum ciliare), a C4 perennial bunchgrass, since 1980. The total area infested was fit to a logistic model and residuals of the model were compared to climatic factors of the corresponding and lagged time periods. Infestations grew from small colonizing patches in the 1980s to 66 ha in 2008, doubling every 2.26–7.04 years since 1988. Although buffelgrass germination, establishment and distribution are favored by wet summers and warm winters, climate variables did not predict spread rates. Buffelgrass has grown at a constant rate, at least since 1988, when much of its expansion took place. In the study area, minimum requirements are met almost every year for germination and reproduction, establishing a consistent baseline for spread that manifests as a constant spread rate.

  12. Molecular phylogeography of canine distemper virus: Geographic origin and global spreading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panzera, Yanina; Sarute, Nicolás; Iraola, Gregorio; Hernández, Martín; Pérez, Ruben

    2015-11-01

    Canine distemper virus (CDV) (Paramyxoviridae-Morbillivirus) is a worldwide spread virus causing a fatal systemic disease in a broad range of carnivore hosts. In this study we performed Bayesian inferences using 208 full-length hemagglutinin gene nucleotide sequences isolated in 16 countries during 37 years (1975-2011). The estimated time to the most recent common ancestor suggested that current CDV strains emerged in the United States in the 1880s. This ancestor diversified through time into two ancestral clades, the current America 1 lineage that recently spread to Asia, and other ancestral clade that diversified and spread worldwide to originate the remaining eight lineages characterized to date. The spreading of CDV was characterized by several migratory events with posterior local differentiation, and expansion of the virus host range. A significant genetic flow between domestic and wildlife hosts is displayed; being domestic hosts the main viral reservoirs worldwide. This study is an extensive and integrative description of spatio/temporal population dynamics of CDV lineages that provides a novel evolutionary paradigm about the origin and dissemination of the current strains of the virus. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. A 3D vision system for the measurement of the rate of spread and the height of fire fronts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rossi, L; Molinier, T; Tison, Y; Pieri, A; Akhloufi, M

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a three-dimensional (3D) vision-based instrumentation system for the measurement of the rate of spread and height of complex fire fronts. The proposed 3D imaging system is simple, does not require calibration, is easily deployable in indoor and outdoor environments and can handle complex fire fronts. New approaches for measuring the position, the rate of spread and the height of a fire front during its propagation are introduced. Experiments were conducted in indoor and outdoor conditions with fires of different scales. Linear and curvilinear fire front spreading were studied. The obtained results are promising and show the interesting performance of the proposed system in operational and complex fire scenarios

  14. Population-level genomics identifies the emergence and global spread of a human transmissible multidrug-resistant nontuberculous mycobacterium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez-Rincon, Daniela; Everall, Isobel; Brown, Karen P; Moreno, Pablo; Verma, Deepshikha; Hill, Emily; Drijkoningen, Judith; Gilligan, Peter; Esther, Charles R; Noone, Peadar G; Giddings, Olivia; Bell, Scott C.; Thomson, Rachel; Wainwright, Claire E.; Coulter, Chris; Pandey, Sushil; Wood, Michelle E; Stockwell, Rebecca E; Ramsay, Kay A; Sherrard, Laura J; Kidd, Timothy J; Jabbour, Nassib; Johnson, Graham R; Knibbs, Luke D; Morawska, Lidia; Sly, Peter D; Jones, Andrew; Bilton, Diana; Laurenson, Ian; Ruddy, Michael; Bourke, Stephen; Bowler, Ian CJW; Chapman, Stephen J; Clayton, Andrew; Cullen, Mairi; Daniels, Thomas; Dempsey, Owen; Denton, Miles; Desai, Maya; Drew, Richard J; Edenborough, Frank; Evans, Jason; Folb, Jonathan; Humphrey, Helen; Isalska, Barbara; Jensen-Fangel, Søren; Jönsson, Bodil; Jones, Andrew M.; Katzenstein, Terese L; Lillebaek, Troels; MacGregor, Gordon; Mayell, Sarah; Millar, Michael; Modha, Deborah; Nash, Edward F; O’Brien, Christopher; O’Brien, Deirdre; Ohri, Chandra; Pao, Caroline S; Peckham, Daniel; Perrin, Felicity; Perry, Audrey; Pressler, Tania; Prtak, Laura; Qvist, Tavs; Robb, Ali; Rodgers, Helen; Schaffer, Kirsten; Shafi, Nadia; van Ingen, Jakko; Walshaw, Martin; Watson, Danie; West, Noreen; Whitehouse, Joanna; Haworth, Charles S; Harris, Simon R; Ordway, Diane; Parkhill, Julian; Floto, R. Andres

    2016-01-01

    Lung infections with Mycobacterium abscessus, a species of multidrug resistant nontuberculous mycobacteria, are emerging as an important global threat to individuals with cystic fibrosis (CF) where they accelerate inflammatory lung damage leading to increased morbidity and mortality. Previously, M. abscessus was thought to be independently acquired by susceptible individuals from the environment. However, using whole genome analysis of a global collection of clinical isolates, we show that the majority of M. abscessus infections are acquired through transmission, potentially via fomites and aerosols, of recently emerged dominant circulating clones that have spread globally. We demonstrate that these clones are associated with worse clinical outcomes, show increased virulence in cell-based and mouse infection models, and thus represent an urgent international infection challenge. PMID:27846606

  15. Spread of endemic disease and global change in an educational project: proposition of relationships developed in a twin partnership

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michela Viale

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The sudden event of the spread of dengue fever (or break-bone fever that appeared for the first time in Cape Verde in 2009 revealed that inappropriate management of waste can be considered a major cause of the spread of this disease. Dengue fever is a tropical infectious disease that is caused by the dengue virus. Its vector, the mosquito Aedes aegypti, found an optimal environment for its life cycle in the context of Cape Verde, with the persistence of water in abandoned waste objects. The connection between the topics of Earth sciences and the spread of this disease is not obvious, but it was explored and illustrated in a school partnership. Activities with pupils and students provided an opportunity to investigate how some global phenomena, like climate change (with an increase in local rainfall and higher temperatures, are related to local events, such as the spread of dengue fever. Preventive strategies are conditioned by the geomorphology of the territory and by the complex relationships that connect the geosphere and the biosphere. For this reason, it is important to be aware of the risk of breaking these delicate balances, and hence activating unexpected consequences. The roles played by both partners linked knowledge about the natural dynamics of our planet with the development of appropriate behavior, thus contributing to the formation of responsible citizenship, to preserve and protect the environment. The partnership encouraged students to develop sustainable management strategies against dengue fever, and consequently against waste, actively involving them at school, at home, and in their community. In this study, we present a case study of the role of a school partnership in a complex problem, such as the spread of dengue fever and environmental pollution.

  16. Evaluating crown fire rate of spread predictions from physics-based models

    Science.gov (United States)

    C. M. Hoffman; J. Ziegler; J. Canfield; R. R. Linn; W. Mell; C. H. Sieg; F. Pimont

    2015-01-01

    Modeling the behavior of crown fires is challenging due to the complex set of coupled processes that drive the characteristics of a spreading wildfire and the large range of spatial and temporal scales over which these processes occur. Detailed physics-based modeling approaches such as FIRETEC and the Wildland Urban Interface Fire Dynamics Simulator (WFDS) simulate...

  17. Astronomical calibration of the Ypresian timescale: implications for seafloor spreading rates and the chaotic behavior of the solar system?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Westerhold

    2017-09-01

    magnetostratigraphy provide robust ages and durations for Chrons C21n to C24n (47–54 Ma, revealing a major change in spreading rates in the interval from 51.0 to 52.5 Ma. This major change in spreading rates is synchronous with a global reorganization of the plate–mantle system and the chaotic diffusion of the planetary orbits. The newly provided YATS also includes new absolute ages for biostratigraphic events, magnetic polarity reversals, and early Eocene hyperthermal events. Our new bio- and magnetostratigraphically calibrated stable isotope compilation may act as a reference for further paleoclimate studies of the Ypresian, which is of special interest because of the outgoing warming and increasingly cooling phase. Finally, our approach of integrating the complex comprehensive data sets unearths some challenges and uncertainties but also validates the high potential of chemostratigraphy, magnetostratigraphy, and biostratigraphy in unprecedented detail being most significant for an accurate chronostratigraphy.

  18. Hydrothermal plumes over spreading-center axes: Global distributions and geological inferences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Edward T.; German, Christopher R.; Elderfield, Henry

    Seafloor hydrothermal circulation is the principal agent of energy and mass exchange between the ocean and the earth's crust. Discharging fluids cool hot rock, construct mineral deposits, nurture biological communities, alter deep-sea mixing and circulation patterns, and profoundly influence ocean chemistry and biology. Although the active discharge orifices themselves cover only a minuscule percentage of the ridge-axis seafloor, the investigation and quantification of their effects is enhanced as a consequence of the mixing process that forms hydrothermal plumes. Hydrothermal fluids discharged from vents are rapidly diluted with ambient seawater by factors of 104-105 [Lupton et al., 1985]. During dilution, the mixture rises tens to hundreds of meters to a level of neutral buoyancy, eventually spreading laterally as a distinct hydrographic and chemical layer with a spatial scale of tens to thousands of kilometers [e.g., Lupton and Craig, 1981; Baker and Massoth, 1987; Speer and Rona, 1989].

  19. Flow Visualization in Evaporating Liquid Drops and Measurement of Dynamic Contact Angles and Spreading Rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Neng-Li; Chao, David F.

    2001-01-01

    A new hybrid optical system, consisting of reflection-refracted shadowgraphy and top-view photography, is used to visualize flow phenomena and simultaneously measure the spreading and instant dynamic contact angle in a volatile-liquid drop on a nontransparent substrate. Thermocapillary convection in the drop, induced by evaporation, and the drop real-time profile data are synchronously recorded by video recording systems. Experimental results obtained from this unique technique clearly reveal that thermocapillary convection strongly affects the spreading process and the characteristics of dynamic contact angle of the drop. Comprehensive information of a sessile drop, including the local contact angle along the periphery, the instability of the three-phase contact line, and the deformation of the drop shape is obtained and analyzed.

  20. Geographical spread of global emissions: Within-country inequalities are large and increasing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sauter, Caspar; Grether, Jean-Marie; Mathys, Nicole A.

    2016-01-01

    In spite of the extensive literature on greenhouse gas emission inequalities at the world-wide level, most of the evidence so far has been based on country-level data. However, the within-country dimension matters for both the implementation and the policy formation of climate policies. As a preliminary step towards a better understanding of within-country inequalities, this paper measures their extent for the two major greenhouse gases, CO_2 and CH_4, over the 1970–2008 period. Using Theil-index decompositions, we show that within-country inequalities account for the bulk of global inequality, and tend to increase over the sample period, in contrast with diminishing between-country inequalities. Including differences across sectors reveals that between-sector inequalities matter more than between-country inequalities, and between-sector inequalities become the dominant source of global inequality at the end of the sample period in the CO_2 case. Finally, estimated social tensions arising from the disconnection between emissions and future damages turn out to be increasing as soon as within-country disparities are taken into account. These orders of magnitude should be kept in mind while discussing the efficiency and fairness of alternative paths in combating global warming. - Highlights: • We estimate global spatial CO_2 and CH_4 inequality using grid data for 1970–2008. • Overall spatial emission inequality is constant for CO_2 and increasing for CH_4. • Within-country inequality is rising and constitutes the main bulk of overall inequality. • An important part of within country inequality is due to differences among sectors. • The gap between emitters and victims is rising within countries.

  1. The birth and spread of IWRM - A case study of global policy diffusion and translation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeremy Allouche

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available How did the idea of IWRM emerge at the global level? Why has IWRM become so popular and so resilient, at least in discourse and policy? What has caused IWRM policies to diffuse across time and space? The principal goal of this article is to identify a set of concepts and mechanisms to study the global diffusion and translation of IWRM through coercion, cooperation, or learning from the ground. The article will also highlight the extent to which this global diffusion was contested and translated into different meanings in terms of policy orientation. Overall, IWRM was a mindset of a particular period where the water policy paradigm was evolving in the same direction as sustainable development and other related paradigms in a post-Rio moment. There were no clear alternatives at the time but now IWRM is being questioned. This IWRM fatigue is leading to other framings and discourses around the water-food-energy nexus and the green economy.

  2. Searching for Grendel: origin and global spread of the C9ORF72 repeat expansion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pliner, Hannah A; Mann, David M; Traynor, Bryan J

    2014-03-01

    Recent advances are uncovering more and more of the genetic architecture underlying amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), a fatal neurodegenerative condition that affects ~6,000 Americans annually. Chief among these was the discovery that a large repeat expansion in the C9ORF72 gene is responsible for an unprecedented portion of familial and sporadic ALS cases. Much has been published on how this expansion disrupts neuronal homeostasis and how gene-based therapy might be an effective treatment in the future. Nevertheless, it is instructive to look back at the origins of this important mutation. In this opinion piece, we attempt to answer three key questions concerning C9ORF72. First, how many times did the expansion occur throughout human history? Second, how old is the expansion? And finally and perhaps most importantly, how did the expansion spread throughout Europe? We speculate that the expansion occurred only once in the past, that this event took place in the Finnish population and that the Vikings and their descendants were responsible for disseminating this mutation throughout the rest of the continent.

  3. Climate matching drives spread rate but not establishment success in recent unintentional bird introductions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abellán, Pedro; Tella, José L; Carrete, Martina; Cardador, Laura; Anadón, José D

    2017-08-29

    Understanding factors driving successful invasions is one of the cornerstones of invasion biology. Bird invasions have been frequently used as study models, and the foundation of current knowledge largely relies on species purposefully introduced during the 19th and early 20th centuries in countries colonized by Europeans. However, the profile of exotic bird species has changed radically in the last decades, as birds are now mostly introduced into the invasion process through unplanned releases from the worldwide pet and avicultural trade. Here we assessed the role of the three main drivers of invasion success (i.e., event-, species-, and location-level factors) on the establishment and spatial spread of exotic birds using an unprecedented dataset recorded throughout the last 100 y in the Iberian Peninsula. Our multimodel inference phylogenetic approach showed that the barriers that need to be overcome by a species to successfully establish or spread are not the same. Whereas establishment is largely related to event-level factors, apparently stochastic features of the introduction (time since first introduction and propagule pressure) and to the origin of introduced species (wild-caught species show higher invasiveness than captive-bred ones), the spread across the invaded region seems to be determined by the extent to which climatic conditions in the new region resemble those of the species' native range. Overall, these results contrast with what we learned from successful deliberate introductions and highlight that different management interventions should apply at different invasion stages, the most efficient strategies being related to event-level factors.

  4. Redefinition and global estimation of basal ecosystem respiration rate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yuan, Wenping [College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Luo, Yiqi [Department of Botany and Microbiology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Li, Xianglan [College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Liu, Shuguang; Yu, Guirui [Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Synthesis Research Center of Chinese Ecosystem Research Network, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Zhou, Tao [State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Bahn, Michael [Institute of Ecology, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria; Black, Andy [Faculty of Land and Food Systems, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, B. C., Canada; Desai, Ankur R. [Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Department, Center for Climatic Research, Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Cescatti, Alessandro [Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Ispra, Italy; Marcolla, Barbara [Sustainable Agro-ecosystems and Bioresources Department, Fondazione Edmund Mach-IASMA Research and Innovation Centre, San Michele all' Adige, Italy; Jacobs, Cor [Alterra, Earth System Science-Climate Change, Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands; Chen, Jiquan [Department of Earth, Ecological, and Environmental Sciences, University of Toledo, Toledo, Ohio, USA; Aurela, Mika [Climate and Global Change Research, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland; Bernhofer, Christian [Chair of Meteorology, Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology, Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, Germany; Gielen, Bert [Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, Wilrijk, Belgium; Bohrer, Gil [Department of Civil, Environmental, and Geodetic Engineering, Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, USA; Cook, David R. [Climate Research Section, Environmental Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois, USA; Dragoni, Danilo [Department of Geography, Indiana University, Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Dunn, Allison L. [Department of Physical and Earth Sciences, Worcester State College, Worcester, Massachusetts, USA; Gianelle, Damiano [Sustainable Agro-ecosystems and Bioresources Department, Fondazione Edmund Mach-IASMA Research and Innovation Centre, San Michele all' Adige, Italy; Grünwald, Thomas [Chair of Meteorology, Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology, Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, Germany; Ibrom, Andreas [Risø DTU National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy, Biosystems Division, Technical University of Denmark, Roskilde, Denmark; Leclerc, Monique Y. [Department of Crop and Soil Sciences, College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, University of Georgia, Griffin, Georgia, USA; Lindroth, Anders [Geobiosphere Science Centre, Physical Geography and Ecosystems Analysis, Lund University, Lund, Sweden; Liu, Heping [Laboratory for Atmospheric Research, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman, Washington, USA; Marchesini, Luca Belelli [Department for Innovation in Biological, Agro-Food and Forest Systems, University of Tuscia, Viterbo, Italy; Montagnani, Leonardo; Pita, Gabriel [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Instituto Superior Técnico, Lisbon, Portugal; Rodeghiero, Mirco [Sustainable Agro-ecosystems and Bioresources Department, Fondazione Edmund Mach-IASMA Research and Innovation Centre, San Michele all' Adige, Italy; Rodrigues, Abel [Unidade de Silvicultura e Produtos Florestais, Instituto Nacional dos Recursos Biológicos, Oeiras, Portugal; Starr, Gregory [Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Stoy, Paul C. [Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences, Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana, USA

    2011-10-13

    Basal ecosystem respiration rate (BR), the ecosystem respiration rate at a given temperature, is a common and important parameter in empirical models for quantifying ecosystem respiration (ER) globally. Numerous studies have indicated that BR varies in space. However, many empirical ER models still use a global constant BR largely due to the lack of a functional description for BR. In this study, we redefined BR to be ecosystem respiration rate at the mean annual temperature. To test the validity of this concept, we conducted a synthesis analysis using 276 site-years of eddy covariance data, from 79 research sites located at latitudes ranging from ~3°S to ~70°N. Results showed that mean annual ER rate closely matches ER rate at mean annual temperature. Incorporation of site-specific BR into global ER model substantially improved simulated ER compared to an invariant BR at all sites. These results confirm that ER at the mean annual

  5. Redefinition and global estimation of basal ecosystem respiration rate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yuan, Wenping; Luo, Yiqi; Li, Xianglan

    2011-01-01

    Basal ecosystem respiration rate (BR), the ecosystem respiration rate at a given temperature, is a common and important parameter in empirical models for quantifying ecosystem respiration (ER) globally. Numerous studies have indicated that BR varies in space. However, many empirical ER models sti...

  6. Cross-border spread, lineage displacement and evolutionary rate estimation of rabies virus in Yunnan Province, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yuzhen; Vrancken, Bram; Feng, Yun; Dellicour, Simon; Yang, Qiqi; Yang, Weihong; Zhang, Yunzhi; Dong, Lu; Pybus, Oliver G; Zhang, Hailin; Tian, Huaiyu

    2017-06-03

    Rabies is an important but underestimated threat to public health, with most cases reported in Asia. Since 2000, a new epidemic wave of rabies has emerged in Yunnan Province, southwestern China, which borders three countries in Southeast Asia. We estimated gene-specific evolutionary rates for rabies virus using available data in GenBank, then used this information to calibrate the timescale of rabies virus (RABV) spread in Asia. We used 452 publicly available geo-referenced complete nucleoprotein (N) gene sequences, including 52 RABV sequences that were recently generated from samples collected in Yunnan between 2008 and 2012. The RABV N gene evolutionary rate was estimated to be 1.88 × 10 -4 (1.37-2.41 × 10 -4 , 95% Bayesian credible interval, BCI) substitutions per site per year. Phylogenetic reconstructions show that the currently circulating RABV lineages in Yunnan result from at least seven independent introductions (95% BCI: 6-9 introductions) and represent each of the three main Asian RABV lineages, SEA-1, -2 and -3. We find that Yunnan is a sink location for the domestic spread of RABV and connects RABV epidemics in North China, South China, and Southeast Asia. Cross-border spread from southeast Asia (SEA) into South China, and intermixing of the North and South China epidemics is also well supported. The influx of RABV into Yunnan from SEA was not well-supported, likely due to the poor sampling of SEA RABV diversity. We found evidence for a lineage displacement of the Yunnan SEA-2 and -3 lineages by Yunnan SEA-1 strains, and considered whether this could be attributed to fitness differences. Overall, our study contributes to a better understanding of the spread of RABV that could facilitate future rabies virus control and prevention efforts.

  7. The GLEaMviz computational tool, a publicly available software to explore realistic epidemic spreading scenarios at the global scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Quaggiotto Marco

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Computational models play an increasingly important role in the assessment and control of public health crises, as demonstrated during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Much research has been done in recent years in the development of sophisticated data-driven models for realistic computer-based simulations of infectious disease spreading. However, only a few computational tools are presently available for assessing scenarios, predicting epidemic evolutions, and managing health emergencies that can benefit a broad audience of users including policy makers and health institutions. Results We present "GLEaMviz", a publicly available software system that simulates the spread of emerging human-to-human infectious diseases across the world. The GLEaMviz tool comprises three components: the client application, the proxy middleware, and the simulation engine. The latter two components constitute the GLEaMviz server. The simulation engine leverages on the Global Epidemic and Mobility (GLEaM framework, a stochastic computational scheme that integrates worldwide high-resolution demographic and mobility data to simulate disease spread on the global scale. The GLEaMviz design aims at maximizing flexibility in defining the disease compartmental model and configuring the simulation scenario; it allows the user to set a variety of parameters including: compartment-specific features, transition values, and environmental effects. The output is a dynamic map and a corresponding set of charts that quantitatively describe the geo-temporal evolution of the disease. The software is designed as a client-server system. The multi-platform client, which can be installed on the user's local machine, is used to set up simulations that will be executed on the server, thus avoiding specific requirements for large computational capabilities on the user side. Conclusions The user-friendly graphical interface of the GLEaMviz tool, along with its high level

  8. How reproductive ecology contributes to the spread of a globally invasive fish.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amy E Deacon

    Full Text Available Invasive freshwater fish represent a major threat to biodiversity. Here, we first demonstrate the dramatic, human-mediated range expansion of the Trinidadian guppy (Poecilia reticulata, an invasive fish with a reputation for negatively impacting native freshwater communities. Next, we explore possible mechanisms that might explain successful global establishment of this species. Guppies, along with some other notable invasive fish species such as mosquitofish (Gambusia spp., have reproductive adaptations to ephemeral habitats that may enable introductions of very small numbers of founders to succeed. The remarkable ability of single pregnant guppies to routinely establish viable populations is demonstrated using a replicated mesocosm set up. In 86% of cases, these populations persisted for two years (the duration of the experiment. Establishment success was independent of founder origin (high and low predation habitats, and there was no loss of behavioural performance amongst mesocosm juveniles. Behavioural "signatures" of the founding locality were, however, evident in mesocosm fish. Our results demonstrate that introductions consisting of a single individual can lead to thriving populations of this invasive fish and suggest that particular caution should be exercised when introducing this species, or other livebearers, to natural water bodies.

  9. Spread of carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii global clone 2 in Asia and AbaR-type resistance islands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Dae Hun; Choi, Ji-Young; Kim, Hae Won; Kim, So Hyun; Chung, Doo Ryeon; Peck, Kyong Ran; Thamlikitkul, Visanu; So, Thomas Man-Kit; Yasin, Rohani M D; Hsueh, Po-Ren; Carlos, Celia C; Hsu, Li Yang; Buntaran, Latre; Lalitha, M K; Song, Jae-Hoon; Ko, Kwan Soo

    2013-11-01

    In this surveillance study, we identified the genotypes, carbapenem resistance determinants, and structural variations of AbaR-type resistance islands among carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii (CRAB) isolates from nine Asian locales. Clonal complex 92 (CC92), corresponding to global clone 2 (GC2), was the most prevalent in most Asian locales (83/108 isolates; 76.9%). CC108, or GC1, was a predominant clone in India. OXA-23 oxacillinase was detected in CRAB isolates from most Asian locales except Taiwan. blaOXA-24 was found in CRAB isolates from Taiwan. AbaR4-type resistance islands, which were divided into six subtypes, were identified in most CRAB isolates investigated. Five isolates from India, Malaysia, Singapore, and Hong Kong contained AbaR3-type resistance islands. Of these, three isolates harbored both AbaR3- and AbaR4-type resistance islands simultaneously. In this study, GC2 was revealed as a prevalent clone in most Asian locales, with the AbaR4-type resistance island predominant, with diverse variants. The significance of this study lies in identifying the spread of global clones of carbapenem-resistant A. baumannii in Asia.

  10. Information spreading dynamics in hypernetworks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suo, Qi; Guo, Jin-Li; Shen, Ai-Zhong

    2018-04-01

    Contact pattern and spreading strategy fundamentally influence the spread of information. Current mathematical methods largely assume that contacts between individuals are fixed by networks. In fact, individuals are affected by all his/her neighbors in different social relationships. Here, we develop a mathematical approach to depict the information spreading process in hypernetworks. Each individual is viewed as a node, and each social relationship containing the individual is viewed as a hyperedge. Based on SIS epidemic model, we construct two spreading models. One model is based on global transmission, corresponding to RP strategy. The other is based on local transmission, corresponding to CP strategy. These models can degenerate into complex network models with a special parameter. Thus hypernetwork models extend the traditional models and are more realistic. Further, we discuss the impact of parameters including structure parameters of hypernetwork, spreading rate, recovering rate as well as information seed on the models. Propagation time and density of informed nodes can reveal the overall trend of information dissemination. Comparing these two models, we find out that there is no spreading threshold in RP, while there exists a spreading threshold in CP. The RP strategy induces a broader and faster information spreading process under the same parameters.

  11. The rate of spread of sheep scab within small groups of Merino and Dorper sheep : short communication

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Meintjies

    2002-07-01

    Full Text Available A single Merino sheep, artificially infested with the sheep scab mite, Psoroptes ovis, and a similarly infested Dorper sheep were placed with 9 uninfested Merino or 9 uninfested Dorper sheep respectively during winter and the rate of spread of infestation on the uninfested sheep observed. The same procedure was repeated in summer. It took 14 and 8 weeks respectively in winter before all sheep in the 2 groups displayed lesions of sheep scab, whereas in summer it took 10 and 12 weeks before all sheep had lesions.

  12. Global spread of mouse-adapted Staphylococcus aureus lineages CC1, CC15, and CC88 among mouse breeding facilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mrochen, Daniel M; Grumann, Dorothee; Schulz, Daniel; Gumz, Janine; Trübe, Patricia; Pritchett-Corning, Kathleen; Johnson, Sarah; Nicklas, Werner; Kirsch, Petra; Martelet, Karine; Brandt, Jens van den; Berg, Sabine; Bröker, Barbara M; Wiles, Siouxsie; Holtfreter, Silva

    2017-11-20

    We previously reported that laboratory mice from all global vendors are frequently colonized with Staphylococcus aureus (S. aureus). Genotyping of a snap sample of murine S. aureus isolates from Charles River, US, showed that mice were predominantly colonized with methicillin-sensitive CC88 strains. Here, we expanded our view and investigated whether laboratory mice from other global animal facilities are colonized with similar strains or novel S. aureus lineages, and whether the murine S. aureus isolates show features of host adaptation. In total, we genotyped 230 S. aureus isolates from various vendor facilities of laboratory mice around the globe (Charles River facilities in the USA, Canada, France, and Germany; another US facility) and university- or company-associated breeding facilities in Germany, China and New Zealand. Spa typing was performed to analyse the clonal relationship of the isolates. Moreover, multiplex PCRs were performed for human-specific virulence factors, the immune-evasion cluster (IEC) and superantigen genes (SAg). We found a total of 58 different spa types that clustered into 15 clonal complexes (CCs). Three of these S. aureus lineages had spread globally among laboratory mice and accounted for three quarters of the isolates: CC1 (13.5%), CC15 (14.3%), and CC88 (47.0%). Compared to human colonizing isolates of the same lineages, the murine isolates frequently lacked IEC genes and SAg genes on mobile genetic elements, implying long-term adaptation to the murine host. In conclusion, laboratory mice from various vendors are colonized with host-adapted S. aureus-strains of a few lineages, predominantly the CC88 lineage. S. aureus researchers must be cautioned that S. aureus colonization might be a relevant confounder in infection and vaccination studies and are therefore advised to screen their mice before experimentation. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier GmbH.. All rights reserved.

  13. Effects of raising US interest rates on global FX markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kožul Nataša

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Following the global financial crisis of 2008, many countries decreased their domestic interest rates as a means of stimulating economic growth, while also providing protection from substantial default on debt. Low interest rates reduce the incentive to save, prompting consumers to purchase assets, such as housing, thus implicitly increasing wealth. In addition, they make the currency relatively cheaper, making exports more competitive, while reducing foreign demand for holding debt in that currency. All these should stimulate economy, albeit at the cost of reduced competitiveness in the world financial markets, where return on investment is largely determined by the interest rates. Low interest rates also prompt greater borrowing, which may not be sustainable once they start to rise. In addition, those that largely depend on interest rate income may seek more speculative and high-risk investments, potentially leading to significant defaults. Finally, as the market interest rate is composed of the real rate and inflation, decreasing rates changes the balance in this relationship, which may lead to inflationary economy. Now that the US has increased its domestic rates for the first time since 2006, it is important to examine the potential effects this will have on global markets and other economies. This paper offers some insights into the dynamics of the FX markets and discusses why the US rate is so closely watched worldwide.

  14. Redefinition and global estimation of basal ecosystem respiration rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, W.; Luo, Y.; Li, X.; Liu, S.; Yu, G.; Zhou, T.; Bahn, M.; Black, A.; Desai, A.R.; Cescatti, A.; Marcolla, B.; Jacobs, C.; Chen, J.; Aurela, M.; Bernhofer, C.; Gielen, B.; Bohrer, G.; Cook, D.R.; Dragoni, D.; Dunn, A.L.; Gianelle, D.; Grnwald, T.; Ibrom, A.; Leclerc, M.Y.; Lindroth, A.; Liu, H.; Marchesini, L.B.; Montagnani, L.; Pita, G.; Rodeghiero, M.; Rodrigues, A.; Starr, G.; Stoy, Paul C.

    2011-01-01

    Basal ecosystem respiration rate (BR), the ecosystem respiration rate at a given temperature, is a common and important parameter in empirical models for quantifying ecosystem respiration (ER) globally. Numerous studies have indicated that BR varies in space. However, many empirical ER models still use a global constant BR largely due to the lack of a functional description for BR. In this study, we redefined BR to be ecosystem respiration rate at the mean annual temperature. To test the validity of this concept, we conducted a synthesis analysis using 276 site-years of eddy covariance data, from 79 research sites located at latitudes ranging from ∼3°S to ∼70°N. Results showed that mean annual ER rate closely matches ER rate at mean annual temperature. Incorporation of site-specific BR into global ER model substantially improved simulated ER compared to an invariant BR at all sites. These results confirm that ER at the mean annual temperature can be considered as BR in empirical models. A strong correlation was found between the mean annual ER and mean annual gross primary production (GPP). Consequently, GPP, which is typically more accurately modeled, can be used to estimate BR. A light use efficiency GPP model (i.e., EC-LUE) was applied to estimate global GPP, BR and ER with input data from MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications) and MODIS (Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer). The global ER was 103 Pg C yr −1, with the highest respiration rate over tropical forests and the lowest value in dry and high-latitude areas.

  15. Linking climate suitability, spread rates and host-impact when estimating the potential costs of invasive pests.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darren J Kriticos

    Full Text Available Biosecurity agencies need robust bioeconomic tools to help inform policy and allocate scarce management resources. They need to estimate the potential for each invasive alien species (IAS to create negative impacts, so that relative and absolute comparisons can be made. Using pine processionary moth (Thaumetopoea pityocampa sensu lato as an example, these needs were met by combining species niche modelling, dispersal modelling, host impact and economic modelling. Within its native range (the Mediterranean Basin and adjacent areas, T. pityocampa causes significant defoliation of pines and serious urticating injuries to humans. Such severe impacts overseas have fuelled concerns about its potential impacts, should it be introduced to New Zealand. A stochastic bioeconomic model was used to estimate the impact of PPM invasion in terms of pine production value lost due to a hypothetical invasion of New Zealand by T. pityocampa. The bioeconomic model combines a semi-mechanistic niche model to develop a climate-related damage function, a climate-related forest growth model, and a stochastic spread model to estimate the present value (PV of an invasion. Simulated invasions indicate that Thaumetopoea pityocampa could reduce New Zealand's merchantable and total pine stem volume production by 30%, reducing forest production by between NZ$1,550 M to NZ$2,560 M if left untreated. Where T. pityocampa is controlled using aerial application of an insecticide, projected losses in PV were reduced, but still significant (NZ$30 M to NZ$2,210 M. The PV estimates were more sensitive to the efficacy of the spray program than the potential rate of spread of the moth. Our novel bioeconomic method provides a refined means of estimating potential impacts of invasive alien species, taking into account climatic effects on asset values, the potential for pest impacts, and pest spread rates.

  16. Linking climate suitability, spread rates and host-impact when estimating the potential costs of invasive pests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kriticos, Darren J; Leriche, Agathe; Palmer, David J; Cook, David C; Brockerhoff, Eckehard G; Stephens, Andréa E A; Watt, Michael S

    2013-01-01

    Biosecurity agencies need robust bioeconomic tools to help inform policy and allocate scarce management resources. They need to estimate the potential for each invasive alien species (IAS) to create negative impacts, so that relative and absolute comparisons can be made. Using pine processionary moth (Thaumetopoea pityocampa sensu lato) as an example, these needs were met by combining species niche modelling, dispersal modelling, host impact and economic modelling. Within its native range (the Mediterranean Basin and adjacent areas), T. pityocampa causes significant defoliation of pines and serious urticating injuries to humans. Such severe impacts overseas have fuelled concerns about its potential impacts, should it be introduced to New Zealand. A stochastic bioeconomic model was used to estimate the impact of PPM invasion in terms of pine production value lost due to a hypothetical invasion of New Zealand by T. pityocampa. The bioeconomic model combines a semi-mechanistic niche model to develop a climate-related damage function, a climate-related forest growth model, and a stochastic spread model to estimate the present value (PV) of an invasion. Simulated invasions indicate that Thaumetopoea pityocampa could reduce New Zealand's merchantable and total pine stem volume production by 30%, reducing forest production by between NZ$1,550 M to NZ$2,560 M if left untreated. Where T. pityocampa is controlled using aerial application of an insecticide, projected losses in PV were reduced, but still significant (NZ$30 M to NZ$2,210 M). The PV estimates were more sensitive to the efficacy of the spray program than the potential rate of spread of the moth. Our novel bioeconomic method provides a refined means of estimating potential impacts of invasive alien species, taking into account climatic effects on asset values, the potential for pest impacts, and pest spread rates.

  17. Microanalytic Coding versus Global Rating of Maternal Parenting Behaviour

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morawska, Alina; Basha, Allison; Adamson, Michelle; Winter, Leanne

    2015-01-01

    This study examined the relationship between microanalytic coding and global rating systems when coding maternal parenting behaviour in two contexts. Observational data from 55 mother--child interactions with two- to four-year-old children, in either a mealtime (clinic; N?=?20 or control; N?=?20) or a playtime context (community; N?=?15), were…

  18. Estimated migration rates under scenarios of global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jay R. Malcolm; Adam Markham; Ronald P. Neilson; Michael. Oaraci

    2002-01-01

    Greefihouse-induced warming and resulting shifts in climatic zones may exceed the migration capabilities of some species. We used fourteen combinations of General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Global Vegetation Models (GVMs) to investigate possible migration rates required under CO2 doubled climatic forcing.

  19. Body size and the rate of spread of invasive ladybird beetles in North America

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hemptinne, J. L.; Magro, A.; Evans, E.W.; Dixon, Anthony F. G.

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 14, č. 3 (2012), s. 595-605 ISSN 1387-3547 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : Invasiveness * Body size * Reproductive rate * Coccinella septempunctata * Harmonia axyridis Subject RIV: EH - Ecology , Behaviour Impact factor: 2.509, year: 2012

  20. Optimizing Hybrid Spreading in Metapopulations.

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, C.; Zhou, S.; Miller, J. C.; Cox, I. J.; Chain, B. M.

    2015-01-01

    Epidemic spreading phenomena are ubiquitous in nature and society. Examples include the spreading of diseases, information, and computer viruses. Epidemics can spread by local spreading, where infected nodes can only infect a limited set of direct target nodes and global spreading, where an infected node can infect every other node. In reality, many epidemics spread using a hybrid mixture of both types of spreading. In this study we develop a theoretical framework for studying hybrid epidemic...

  1. Optimizing Hybrid Spreading in Metapopulations

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Changwang; Zhou, Shi; Miller, Joel C.; Cox, Ingemar J.; Chain, Benjamin M.

    2014-01-01

    Epidemic spreading phenomena are ubiquitous in nature and society. Examples include the spreading of diseases, information, and computer viruses. Epidemics can spread by local spreading, where infected nodes can only infect a limited set of direct target nodes and global spreading, where an infected node can infect every other node. In reality, many epidemics spread using a hybrid mixture of both types of spreading. In this study we develop a theoretical framework for studying hybrid epidemic...

  2. Changing human mobility and the spreading rate of global influenza outbreaks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slaa, Jan Willem

    2010-01-01

    Influenza, commonly called the flu, is an infectious disease which causes up to 500,000 deaths annually during seasonal epidemics. Influenza viruses circulate in many different types and in many species, such as birds, swines and humans. When a new human

  3. Assessing historical rate changes in global tsunami occurrence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geist, E.L.; Parsons, T.

    2011-01-01

    The global catalogue of tsunami events is examined to determine if transient variations in tsunami rates are consistent with a Poisson process commonly assumed for tsunami hazard assessments. The primary data analyzed are tsunamis with maximum sizes >1m. The record of these tsunamis appears to be complete since approximately 1890. A secondary data set of tsunamis >0.1m is also analyzed that appears to be complete since approximately 1960. Various kernel density estimates used to determine the rate distribution with time indicate a prominent rate change in global tsunamis during the mid-1990s. Less prominent rate changes occur in the early- and mid-20th century. To determine whether these rate fluctuations are anomalous, the distribution of annual event numbers for the tsunami catalogue is compared to Poisson and negative binomial distributions, the latter of which includes the effects of temporal clustering. Compared to a Poisson distribution, the negative binomial distribution model provides a consistent fit to tsunami event numbers for the >1m data set, but the Poisson null hypothesis cannot be falsified for the shorter duration >0.1m data set. Temporal clustering of tsunami sources is also indicated by the distribution of interevent times for both data sets. Tsunami event clusters consist only of two to four events, in contrast to protracted sequences of earthquakes that make up foreshock-main shock-aftershock sequences. From past studies of seismicity, it is likely that there is a physical triggering mechanism responsible for events within the tsunami source 'mini-clusters'. In conclusion, prominent transient rate increases in the occurrence of global tsunamis appear to be caused by temporal grouping of geographically distinct mini-clusters, in addition to the random preferential location of global M >7 earthquakes along offshore fault zones.

  4. Assessing students' communication skills: validation of a global rating.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheffer, Simone; Muehlinghaus, Isabel; Froehmel, Annette; Ortwein, Heiderose

    2008-12-01

    Communication skills training is an accepted part of undergraduate medical programs nowadays. In addition to learning experiences its importance should be emphasised by performance-based assessment. As detailed checklists have been shown to be not well suited for the assessment of communication skills for different reasons, this study aimed to validate a global rating scale. A Canadian instrument was translated to German and adapted to assess students' communication skills during an end-of-semester-OSCE. Subjects were second and third year medical students at the reformed track of the Charité-Universitaetsmedizin Berlin. Different groups of raters were trained to assess students' communication skills using the global rating scale. Validity testing included concurrent validity and construct validity: Judgements of different groups of raters were compared to expert ratings as a defined gold standard. Furthermore, the amount of agreement between scores obtained with this global rating scale and a different instrument for assessing communication skills was determined. Results show that communication skills can be validly assessed by trained non-expert raters as well as standardised patients using this instrument.

  5. Collective effect of personal behavior induced preventive measures and differential rate of transmission on spread of epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sagar, Vikram; Zhao, Yi

    2017-02-01

    In the present work, the effect of personal behavior induced preventive measures is studied on the spread of epidemics over scale free networks that are characterized by the differential rate of disease transmission. The role of personal behavior induced preventive measures is parameterized in terms of variable λ, which modulates the number of concurrent contacts a node makes with the fraction of its neighboring nodes. The dynamics of the disease is described by a non-linear Susceptible Infected Susceptible model based upon the discrete time Markov Chain method. The network mean field approach is generalized to account for the effect of non-linear coupling between the aforementioned factors on the collective dynamics of nodes. The upper bound estimates of the disease outbreak threshold obtained from the mean field theory are found to be in good agreement with the corresponding non-linear stochastic model. From the results of parametric study, it is shown that the epidemic size has inverse dependence on the preventive measures (λ). It has also been shown that the increase in the average degree of the nodes lowers the time of spread and enhances the size of epidemics.

  6. Guidelines for rating Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aas IH Monrad

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF is a scoring system for the severity of illness in psychiatry. It is used clinically in many countries, as well as in research, but studies have shown several problems with GAF, for example concerning its validity and reliability. Guidelines for rating are important. The present study aimed to identify the current status of guidelines for rating GAF, and relevant factors and gaps in knowledge for the development of improved guidelines. Methods A thorough literature search was conducted. Results Few studies of existing guidelines have been conducted; existing guidelines are short; and rating has a subjective element. Seven main categories were identified as being important in relation to further development of guidelines: (1 general points about guidelines for rating GAF; (2 introduction to guidelines, with ground rules; (3 starting scoring at the top, middle or bottom level of the scale; (4 scoring for different time periods and of different values (highest, lowest or average; (5 the finer grading of the scale; (6 different guidelines for different conditions; and (7 different languages and cultures. Little information is available about how rules for rating are understood by different raters: the final score may be affected by whether the rater starts at the top, middle or bottom of the scale; there is little data on which value/combination of GAF values to record; guidelines for scoring within 10-point intervals are limited; there is little empirical information concerning the suitability of existing guidelines for different conditions and patient characteristics; and little is known about the effects of translation into different languages or of different cultural understanding. Conclusions Few studies have dealt specifically with guidelines for rating GAF. Current guidelines for rating GAF are not comprehensive, and relevant points for new guidelines are presented. Theoretical and

  7. Assessment of competence for caesarean section with global rating scale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qureshi, R.N.; Ali, S.K.

    2013-01-01

    Objective: To establish as reliable and valid the nine-point global rating scale for assessing residents' independent performance of Caesarean Section. Methods: The validation study was conducted at the Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Aga Khan University Hospital, from April to December 2008, and comprised 15 residents during 40 Caesarean Sections over 9 months. Independently two evaluators rated each procedure and the difficulty of each case. Results: The observations per faculty ranged from 1-8 (mean 4.07+- 2.56). The Year 4 residents were observed the most i.e. 32 (40%), followed by Year 3, 30 (37.5%); Year 2; 14 (17.5%); and Year 1, 4 (5%). Mean time required for observation of the surgery was 43.81+-14.28 (range: 20-90) with a mode of 45 min. Mean aggregate rating on all items showed gradual progression with the year of residency. The assessment tool had an internal consistency reliability (Cronbach's alpha) of 0.9097 with low inter-rater reliability. Conclusion: The evaluation tool was found to be reliable and valid for evaluating a resident's competence for performing Caesarean Section. Training of the assessors is required for a better inter-rater agreement. (author)

  8. Global optimization numerical strategies for rate-independent processes

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Benešová, Barbora

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 50, č. 2 (2011), s. 197-220 ISSN 0925-5001 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP201/10/0357 Grant - others:GA MŠk(CZ) LC06052 Program:LC Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z20760514 Keywords : rate-independent processes * numerical global optimization * energy estimates based algorithm Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 1.196, year: 2011 http://math.hnue.edu.vn/portal/rss.viewpage.php?id=0000037780&ap=L3BvcnRhbC9ncmFiYmVyLnBocD9jYXRpZD0xMDEyJnBhZ2U9Mg==

  9. Role of Atmospheric Cloud Radiative Effects in the Intermodal Spread in the Shift of Southern Hemispheric Eddy-driven Jet in Responses to Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Y.; Thompson, D. W. J.; Bony, S.

    2017-12-01

    Observations and most climate models suggest storm track and extratropical eddy driven jet shifts poleward in a warmer climate, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. However, the magnitude of such shifts remains uncertain. Even for a prescribed uniform SST changes, models produce large inter-model spread in the magnitude of jet shift, suggesting that a substantial part of these uncertainties are caused by the impact of cloud radiative effects on the atmospheric heating rate per se. In this study we will investigate 1) how much do clouds contribute to the spread of the circulation response in the absence of SST coupling? 2) how much do clouds contribute to the spread of the direct CO2 and SST-only response?

  10. Peculiarities of spreading separatist trends in the Modern World in the context of development of the global processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bostan Sergii Ivanovich

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The international collaboration is entering the new era of globalization revealing not only the new ways of development and quantum growth for humanity but also new threats, problems and global conflicts. There is now doubt that humanity is facing new global range of problems, agenda of the 21st century and urgent issues of global organization of the world order and systems of global administration acceptable for all states. Preventing distribution of international confrontation between the major political players through advancement of separatist and terrorist trends must become the main priority for the international system of collective security, which should be changed according to the realities of the modern global processes.

  11. Metofluthrin: investigations into the use of a volatile spatial pyrethroid in a global spread of dengue, chikungunya and Zika viruses

    OpenAIRE

    Buhagiar, Tamara S.; Devine, Gregor J.; Ritchie, Scott A.

    2017-01-01

    Background Metofluthrin reduces biting activity in Aedes aegypti through the confusion, knockdown, and subsequent kill of a mosquito. A geographical spread in dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses, increases intervention demands. Response to a Zika outbreak may require a different strategy than dengue, as high-risk individuals, specifically pregnant women, need to be targeted. Methods In semi-field conditions within a residential property in Cairns, Queensland, the impacts of metofluthrin on ...

  12. Mind the rate. Why rate global climate change matters, and how much

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ambrosi, Ph.

    2006-01-01

    To assess climate policies in a cost-efficiency framework with constraints on the magnitude and rate of global climate change we have built RESPONSE, an optimal control integrated assessment model. Our results show that the uncertainty about climate sensitivity leads to significant short-term mitigation efforts all the more as the arrival of information regarding this parameter is belated. There exists thus a high opportunity cost to know before 2030 the true value of this parameter, which is not totally granted so far. Given this uncertainty, a +2 deg C objective could lead to rather stringent policy recommendations for the coming decades and might prove unacceptable. Furthermore, the uncertainty about climate sensitivity magnifies the influence of the rate constraint on short-term decision, leading to rather stringent policy recommendations for the coming decades. This result is particularly robust to the choice of discount rate and to the beliefs of the decision-maker about climate sensitivity. We finally show that the uncertainty about the rate constraint is even more important for short-term decision than the uncertainty about climate sensitivity or magnitude of warming. This means that the critical rate of climate change, i.e. a transient characteristic of climate risks, matters much more than the long-term objective of climate policy, i.e. the critical magnitude of climate change. Therefore, research should be aimed at better characterising climate change risks in view to help decision-makers in agreeing on a safe guardrail to limit the rate of global warming. (author)

  13. Optimizing hybrid spreading in metapopulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Changwang; Zhou, Shi; Miller, Joel C; Cox, Ingemar J; Chain, Benjamin M

    2015-04-29

    Epidemic spreading phenomena are ubiquitous in nature and society. Examples include the spreading of diseases, information, and computer viruses. Epidemics can spread by local spreading, where infected nodes can only infect a limited set of direct target nodes and global spreading, where an infected node can infect every other node. In reality, many epidemics spread using a hybrid mixture of both types of spreading. In this study we develop a theoretical framework for studying hybrid epidemics, and examine the optimum balance between spreading mechanisms in terms of achieving the maximum outbreak size. We show the existence of critically hybrid epidemics where neither spreading mechanism alone can cause a noticeable spread but a combination of the two spreading mechanisms would produce an enormous outbreak. Our results provide new strategies for maximising beneficial epidemics and estimating the worst outcome of damaging hybrid epidemics.

  14. Basic interest rate, bank competition and bank spread in personal credit operations in Brazil: A theoretical and empirical analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guilherme Jonas Costa da Silva

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The debate on the strategy of banking spread reduction in Brazil has been extended for a long time and was fundamentally concentrated in macroeconomics aspects. This paper has the goal of evaluate the new policy of banking spread reduction implemented by the federal government, which has added microeconomic aspects to this tendency. In order to do so, a mathematical model was presented that combines microeconomics aspects, such as was developed by Nakane (2001, with macroeconomics aspects, originally presented by Ho and Saunders (1981. This model was tested for the 25 largest banks in the period of March 2009 to March 2013, using the Panel Data Methodology. The GMM System model was the one that best fitted the data gathered and the results showed that both aspects are relevant in explaining the banking spread in Brazil, and should not be analyzed separately, as is frequently made in the literature, considering the econometric problems related to the omission bias of relevant variables.

  15. Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate; Laboratory Implementation and Current Global Status.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, W Greg; Jones, Graham R D

    2018-01-01

    In 2002, the Kidney Disease Outcomes Quality Initiative guidelines for identifying and treating CKD recommended that clinical laboratories report estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) with every creatinine result to assist clinical practitioners to identify people with early-stage CKD. At that time, the original Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) Study equation based on serum creatinine measurements was recommended for calculating eGFR. Because the MDRD Study equation was developed using a nonstandardized creatinine method, a Laboratory Working Group of the National Kidney Disease Education program was formed and implemented standardized calibration traceability for all creatinine methods from global manufacturers by approximately 2010. A modified MDRD Study equation for use with standardized creatinine was developed. The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration developed a new equation in 2009 that was more accurate than the MDRD Study equation at values above 60 mL/min/1.73 m 2 . As of 2017, reporting eGFR with creatinine is almost universal in many countries. A reference system for cystatin C became available in 2010, and manufacturers are in the process to standardize cystatin C assays. Equations for eGFR based on standardized cystatin C alone and with creatinine are now available from the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration and other groups. Copyright © 2017 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Effects of Degree-Biased Transmission Rate and Nonlinear Infectivity on Rumor Spreading in Complex Social Networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naimi, Y.; Roshani, F.

    2010-12-01

    We introduce the generalized rumor spreading model and analytically investigate the epidemic spreading for this model on scale-free networks. To generalize the standard rumor spreading model (rumor model in which each node's infectivity equals its degree and all links have a uniform connectivity strength), we introduce not only the infectivity function to determine the simultaneous contacts that a given node (individual) establishes to its connected neighbors but also the connectivity strength function (CSF) for the direct link between two connected nodes that lead to degree-biased propagation of rumors. In the case of nonlinear functions, the generalization enters the infectivity's exponent α and the CSF's exponent β into the analytical rumor model. We show that one can adjust the exponents α and β to control the epidemic threshold which is absent for the standard rumor spreading model. In addition, we obtain the critical threshold for the generalized model on the finite scale-free network and compare our results with the standard model on the same network. We show that the generalized model has a greater threshold than the standard model. (author)

  17. Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    F. Gerard Adams

    2008-01-01

    The rapid globalization of the world economy is causing fundamental changes in patterns of trade and finance. Some economists have argued that globalization has arrived and that the world is “flat†. While the geographic scope of markets has increased, the author argues that new patterns of trade and finance are a result of the discrepancies between “old†countries and “new†. As the differences are gradually wiped out, particularly if knowledge and technology spread worldwide, the t...

  18. A genomic portrait of the emergence, evolution, and global spread of a methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus pandemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holden, Matthew T G; Hsu, Li-Yang; Kurt, Kevin

    2013-01-01

    The widespread use of antibiotics in association with high-density clinical care has driven the emergence of drug-resistant bacteria that are adapted to thrive in hospitalized patients. Of particular concern are globally disseminated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) clones that ...

  19. Metofluthrin: investigations into the use of a volatile spatial pyrethroid in a global spread of dengue, chikungunya and Zika viruses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buhagiar, Tamara S; Devine, Gregor J; Ritchie, Scott A

    2017-05-30

    Metofluthrin reduces biting activity in Aedes aegypti through the confusion, knockdown, and subsequent kill of a mosquito. A geographical spread in dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses, increases intervention demands. Response to a Zika outbreak may require a different strategy than dengue, as high-risk individuals, specifically pregnant women, need to be targeted. In semi-field conditions within a residential property in Cairns, Queensland, the impacts of metofluthrin on biting behaviour of free-flying Wolbachia-infected Ae. aegypti were evaluated. Mortality in Ae. aegypti exposed to metofluthrin over a 22 h period was 100% compared to 2.7% in an untreated room. No biting activity was observed in mosquitoes up to 5 m from the emanator after 10 min of metofluthrin exposure. Use of metofluthrin reduced biting activity up to 8 m, regardless of the host's proximity (near or far) to a dark harbourage area (HA) (P metofluthrin emanator, the host was most likely bitten when located immediately next to a HA (within 1 m) versus 8 m away from the HA (P = 0.006). The addition of a ceiling fan (0.8 m/s airflow) prevented all biting activity after 10 min of metofluthrin exposure. Previously unexposed Ae. aegypti were less likely to reach the host in a metofluthrin-treated room [Formula: see text]= 31%) compared to an untreated room ([Formula: see text]) (P metofluthrin to infiltrate protected locations within a room causing knockdown in caged mosquitoes, required more time than exposed locations (P Metofluthrin is effective in interrupting indoor host-seeking in Ae. aegypti. Metofluthrin's efficacy is increased by centrally locating the emanator in the room, and by using a fan to increase airflow. Newly treated rooms may require a period of 2-4 h for sufficient distribution of the metofluthrin into protected locations where mosquitoes may be resting.

  20. Quantifying rates of cell migration and cell proliferation in co-culture barrier assays reveals how skin and melanoma cells interact during melanoma spreading and invasion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haridas, Parvathi; Penington, Catherine J; McGovern, Jacqui A; McElwain, D L Sean; Simpson, Matthew J

    2017-06-21

    Malignant spreading involves the migration of cancer cells amongst other native cell types. For example, in vivo melanoma invasion involves individual melanoma cells migrating through native skin, which is composed of several distinct subpopulations of cells. Here, we aim to quantify how interactions between melanoma and fibroblast cells affect the collective spreading of a heterogeneous population of these cells in vitro. We perform a suite of circular barrier assays that includes: (i) monoculture assays with fibroblast cells; (ii) monoculture assays with SK-MEL-28 melanoma cells; and (iii) a series of co-culture assays initiated with three different ratios of SK-MEL-28 melanoma cells and fibroblast cells. Using immunostaining, detailed cell density histograms are constructed to illustrate how the two subpopulations of cells are spatially arranged within the spreading heterogeneous population. Calibrating the solution of a continuum partial differential equation to the experimental results from the monoculture assays allows us to estimate the cell diffusivity and the cell proliferation rate for the melanoma and the fibroblast cells, separately. Using the parameter estimates from the monoculture assays, we then make a prediction of the spatial spreading in the co-culture assays. Results show that the parameter estimates obtained from the monoculture assays lead to a reasonably accurate prediction of the spatial arrangement of the two subpopulations in the co-culture assays. Overall, the spatial pattern of spreading of the melanoma cells and the fibroblast cells is very similar in monoculture and co-culture conditions. Therefore, we find no clear evidence of any interactions other than cell-to-cell contact and crowding effects. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Travelling Policies and Global Buzzwords: How International Non-Governmental Organizations and Charities Spread the Word about Early Childhood in the Global South

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penn, Helen

    2011-01-01

    This article is based on a web-search commissioned by an international charity to review the work of international non-governmental organizations (INGOs) and charities which promote and support early childhood education and care (ECEC) in the global South. The article examines examples of such initiatives. It is suggested that there is…

  2. Bit Error Rate Performance of a MIMO-CDMA System Employing Parity-Bit-Selected Spreading in Frequency Nonselective Rayleigh Fading

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claude D'Amours

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We analytically derive the upper bound for the bit error rate (BER performance of a single user multiple input multiple output code division multiple access (MIMO-CDMA system employing parity-bit-selected spreading in slowly varying, flat Rayleigh fading. The analysis is done for spatially uncorrelated links. The analysis presented demonstrates that parity-bit-selected spreading provides an asymptotic gain of 10log(Nt dB over conventional MIMO-CDMA when the receiver has perfect channel estimates. This analytical result concurs with previous works where the (BER is determined by simulation methods and provides insight into why the different techniques provide improvement over conventional MIMO-CDMA systems.

  3. A global airport-based risk model for the spread of dengue infection via the air transport network.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lauren Gardner

    Full Text Available The number of travel-acquired dengue infections has seen a consistent global rise over the past decade. An increased volume of international passenger air traffic originating from regions with endemic dengue has contributed to a rise in the number of dengue cases in both areas of endemicity and elsewhere. This paper reports results from a network-based risk assessment model which uses international passenger travel volumes, travel routes, travel distances, regional populations, and predictive species distribution models (for the two vector species, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus to quantify the relative risk posed by each airport in importing passengers with travel-acquired dengue infections. Two risk attributes are evaluated: (i the risk posed by through traffic at each stopover airport and (ii the risk posed by incoming travelers to each destination airport. The model results prioritize optimal locations (i.e., airports for targeted dengue surveillance. The model is easily extendible to other vector-borne diseases.

  4. Genomic analysis of globally diverse Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains provides insights into emergence and spread of multidrug resistance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manson, Abigail L.; Cohen, Keira A.; Abeel, Thomas; Desjardins, Christopher A.; Armstrong, Derek T.; Barry, Clifton E.; Brand, Jeannette; Chapman, Sinéad B.; Cho, Sang-Nae; Gabrielian, Andrei; Gomez, James; Jodals, Andreea M.; Joloba, Moses; Jureen, Pontus; Lee, Jong Seok; Malinga, Lesibana; Maiga, Mamoudou; Nordenberg, Dale; Noroc, Ecaterina; Romancenco, Elena; Salazar, Alex; Ssengooba, Willy; Velayati, A. A.; Winglee, Kathryn; Zalutskaya, Aksana; Via, Laura E.; Cassell, Gail H.; Dorman, Susan E.; Ellner, Jerrold; Farnia, Parissa; Galagan, James E.; Rosenthal, Alex; Crudu, Valeriu; Homorodean, Daniela; Hsueh, Po-Ren; Narayanan, Sujatha; Pym, Alexander S.; Skrahina, Alena; Swaminathan, Soumya; Van der Walt, Martie; Alland, David; Bishai, William R.; Cohen, Ted; Hoffner, Sven; Birren, Bruce W.; Earl, Ashlee M.

    2017-01-01

    Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB), caused by drug resistant strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis, is an increasingly serious problem worldwide. In this study, we examined a dataset of 5,310 M. tuberculosis whole genome sequences from five continents. Despite great diversity with respect to geographic point of isolation, genetic background and drug resistance, patterns of drug resistance emergence were conserved globally. We have identified harbinger mutations that often precede MDR. In particular, the katG S315T mutation, conferring resistance to isoniazid, overwhelmingly arose before rifampicin resistance across all lineages, geographic regions, and time periods. Molecular diagnostics that include markers for rifampicin resistance alone will be insufficient to identify pre-MDR strains. Incorporating knowledge of pre-MDR polymorphisms, particularly katG S315, into molecular diagnostics will enable targeted treatment of patients with pre-MDR-TB to prevent further development of MDR-TB. PMID:28092681

  5. A global synthesis of plant extinction rates in urban areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hahs, Amy K; McDonnell, Mark J; McCarthy, Michael A; Vesk, Peter A; Corlett, Richard T; Norton, Briony A; Clemants, Steven E; Duncan, Richard P; Thompson, Ken; Schwartz, Mark W; Williams, Nicholas S G

    2009-11-01

    Plant extinctions from urban areas are a growing threat to biodiversity worldwide. To minimize this threat, it is critical to understand what factors are influencing plant extinction rates. We compiled plant extinction rate data for 22 cities around the world. Two-thirds of the variation in plant extinction rates was explained by a combination of the city's historical development and the current proportion of native vegetation, with the former explaining the greatest variability. As a single variable, the amount of native vegetation remaining also influenced extinction rates, particularly in cities > 200 years old. Our study demonstrates that the legacies of landscape transformations by agrarian and urban development last for hundreds of years, and modern cities potentially carry a large extinction debt. This finding highlights the importance of preserving native vegetation in urban areas and the need for mitigation to minimize potential plant extinctions in the future.

  6. 78 FR 1277 - International Product Change-Global Expedited Package Services-Non-Published Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-08

    ... POSTAL SERVICE International Product Change--Global Expedited Package Services-- Non-Published...-- Non-Published Rates 4 (GEPS-NPR 4) to the Competitive Products List. DATES: Effective date: January 8... add Global Expedited Package Services-- Non-Published Rates 4 (GEPS-NPR 4) to the Competitive Products...

  7. Should Global Items on Student Rating Scales Be Used for Summative Decisions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berk, Ronald A.

    2013-01-01

    One of the simplest indicators of teaching or course effectiveness is student ratings on one or more global items from the entire rating scale. That approach seems intuitively sound and easy to use. Global items have even been recommended by a few researchers to get a quick-read, at-a-glance summary for summative decisions about faculty. The…

  8. The global partnership: its achievements, missed opportunities and potential to address future threats from the spread of CBRN materials and expertise - 59335

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heyes, Alan; Bowen, Wyn; Chalmers, Hugh

    2012-01-01

    Document available in abstract form only. Full text of publication follows: In 2002, the G8 launched the Global Partnership (GP) against the Spread of Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction. The partnerships budget was placed at $20 billion over 10 years, and it was supported by some 23 countries and the European Union (EU).Though it has had little public recognition, the partnership has been one of the G8's most successful initiatives and has led to many benefits, including improved international security and addressing a sizeable proportion of the Cold War nuclear and chemical weapons arsenal in the Former Soviet Union. Its future, however, remains undecided, as its funding is set to expire in less than two years. In 2009 and 2010 Kings College London with generous funding support from the US John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, carried out a detailed evaluation of the achievements and benefits of the GP to date, its failings and lost opportunities, and potential future direction. Our findings indicate that the partnership has aided security in the Former Soviet Union and had a significant number of wider benefits with the potential to continue to do the same on a broader geographic level in future. As such, it is a valuable tool to assist the international community to work together to address global threats relating to chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear materials and related expertise and the G8 should take steps to renew its funding. (authors)

  9. A globally convergent MC algorithm with an adaptive learning rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Dezhong; Yi, Zhang; Xiang, Yong; Zhang, Haixian

    2012-02-01

    This brief deals with the problem of minor component analysis (MCA). Artificial neural networks can be exploited to achieve the task of MCA. Recent research works show that convergence of neural networks based MCA algorithms can be guaranteed if the learning rates are less than certain thresholds. However, the computation of these thresholds needs information about the eigenvalues of the autocorrelation matrix of data set, which is unavailable in online extraction of minor component from input data stream. In this correspondence, we introduce an adaptive learning rate into the OJAn MCA algorithm, such that its convergence condition does not depend on any unobtainable information, and can be easily satisfied in practical applications.

  10. Epidemiology meets econometrics: using time-series analysis to observe the impact of bed occupancy rates on the spread of multidrug-resistant bacteria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaier, K; Meyer, E; Dettenkofer, M; Frank, U

    2010-10-01

    Two multivariate time-series analyses were carried out to identify the impact of bed occupancy rates, turnover intervals and the average length of hospital stay on the spread of multidrug-resistant bacteria in a teaching hospital. Epidemiological data on the incidences of meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL)-producing bacteria were collected. Time-series of bed occupancy rates, turnover intervals and the average length of stay were tested for inclusion in the models as independent variables. Incidence was defined as nosocomial cases per 1000 patient-days. This included all patients infected or colonised with MRSA/ESBL more than 48h after admission. Between January 2003 and July 2008, a mean incidence of 0.15 nosocomial MRSA cases was identified. ESBL was not included in the surveillance until January 2005. Between January 2005 and July 2008 the mean incidence of nosocomial ESBL was also 0.15 cases per 1000 patient-days. The two multivariate models demonstrate a temporal relationship between bed occupancy rates in general wards and the incidence of nosocomial MRSA and ESBL. Similarly, the temporal relationship between the monthly average length of stay in intensive care units (ICUs) and the incidence of nosocomial MRSA and ESBL was demonstrated. Overcrowding in general wards and long periods of ICU stay were identified as factors influencing the spread of multidrug-resistant bacteria in hospital settings. Copyright 2010 The Hospital Infection Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Statistics of exchange rate regimes in Nigeria | Iwueze | Global ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The three distinct exchange rate regimes of Nigeria were subjected to Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modeling in order to compare them with respect to model structure. It was found that the three regimes admit different models. Regime one admits Moving average model of order 2, Regime two admits ...

  12. Global epidemiology of hysterectomy: possible impact on gynecological cancer rates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hammer, Anne; Rositch, Anne; Kahlert, Johnny Abildgaard

    2015-01-01

    Despite the fact that hysterectomy is the most common surgical procedure worldwide in gynecology, national reporting of the incidence rate of gynecological cancers rarely removes the proportion no longer at risk of the disease from the population-at-risk-denominator (ie. women who have had a hyst...

  13. Mortality of marine planktonic copepods : global rates and patterns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hirst, A.G.; Kiørboe, Thomas

    2002-01-01

    Using life history theory we make predictions of mortality rates in marine epi-pelagic copepods from field estimates of adult fecundity, development times and adult sex ratios. Predicted mortality increases with temperature in both broadcast and sac spawning copepods, and declines with body weight...... in broadcast spawners, while mortality in sac spawners is invariant with body size. Although the magnitude of copepod mortality does lie close to the overall general pattern for pelagic animals, copepod mortality scaling is much weaker, implying that small copepods are avoiding some mortality agent....../s that other pelagic animals of a similar size do not, We compile direct in situ estimates of copepod mortality and compare these with our indirect predictions; we find the predictions generally match the field measurements well with respect to average rates and patterns. Finally, by comparing in situ adult...

  14. Global shutdown dose rate maps for a DEMO conceptual design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leichtle, D.; Pereslavtsev, P.; Sanz, J.; Catalan, J.P.; Juarez, R.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Application of R2S-method on high-resolution full torus sector mesh for DEMO. • Absorbed dose rates after shutdown for a variely of RH equipment at typical locations. • Idenification of radiation levels at several port based locations. - Abstract: For the calculations of highly reliable shutdown dose rate (SDR) maps in fusion devices like a DEMO plant, the Rigorous-2-step (R2S) method is nowadays routinely applied using high-resolution decay gamma sources from initial high-resolution neutron flux meshes activating all materials in the system. This approach has been utilized in the present paper with the objective to provide SDR results relevant for RH systems of a conceptual DEMO design developed in the EU. The primary objective was to assess specific locations of interest for RH equipment inside the vessel and along the extension of maintenance ports. To this end, a provisional DEMO MCNP model has been used, featuring HCLL-type blankets, tungsten/copper divertor, manifolds, vacuum vessel with ports and toroidal field coils. The operational scenario assumed 2.1 GW fusion power and a life-time of 20 years with plant availability of 30%, where removable parts will be extracted after 5.2 years. Results of absorbed dose rate distributions for several relevant materials are presented and discussed in terms of the different contributions from the various activated components.

  15. Global shutdown dose rate maps for a DEMO conceptual design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leichtle, D., E-mail: dieter.leichtle@f4e.europa.eu [Karlsruhe Institute of Technology KIT, Institute for Neutron Physics and Reactor Technology, Hermann-von-Helmholtz-Platz 1, 76344 Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen (Germany); Pereslavtsev, P. [Karlsruhe Institute of Technology KIT, Institute for Neutron Physics and Reactor Technology, Hermann-von-Helmholtz-Platz 1, 76344 Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen (Germany); Sanz, J.; Catalan, J.P.; Juarez, R. [Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia(UNED), E.T.S. Ingenieros Industriales, C/ Juan del Rosal 12, 28040 Madrid (Spain)

    2015-10-15

    Highlights: • Application of R2S-method on high-resolution full torus sector mesh for DEMO. • Absorbed dose rates after shutdown for a variely of RH equipment at typical locations. • Idenification of radiation levels at several port based locations. - Abstract: For the calculations of highly reliable shutdown dose rate (SDR) maps in fusion devices like a DEMO plant, the Rigorous-2-step (R2S) method is nowadays routinely applied using high-resolution decay gamma sources from initial high-resolution neutron flux meshes activating all materials in the system. This approach has been utilized in the present paper with the objective to provide SDR results relevant for RH systems of a conceptual DEMO design developed in the EU. The primary objective was to assess specific locations of interest for RH equipment inside the vessel and along the extension of maintenance ports. To this end, a provisional DEMO MCNP model has been used, featuring HCLL-type blankets, tungsten/copper divertor, manifolds, vacuum vessel with ports and toroidal field coils. The operational scenario assumed 2.1 GW fusion power and a life-time of 20 years with plant availability of 30%, where removable parts will be extracted after 5.2 years. Results of absorbed dose rate distributions for several relevant materials are presented and discussed in terms of the different contributions from the various activated components.

  16. Nuclear Power Learning and Deployment Rates; Disruption and Global Benefits Forgone

    OpenAIRE

    Peter A. Lang

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents evidence of the disruption of a transition from fossil fuels to nuclear power, and finds the benefits forgone as a consequence are substantial. Learning rates are presented for nuclear power in seven countries, comprising 58% of all power reactors ever built globally. Learning rates and deployment rates changed in the late-1960s and 1970s from rapidly falling costs and accelerating deployment to rapidly rising costs and stalled deployment. Historical nuclear global capacit...

  17. Asymmetric Effects of Global Liquidity Expansion on Foreign Portfolio Inflows, Exchange Rates, and Stock Prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dong-Eun Rhee

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the effects of global liquidity expansion on advanced and emerging economies by using panel VAR methodology. The results show that global liquidity expansion tends to boost economy by increasing GDP growth and stock prices. However, we find that the effects are asymmetric. The effects of global liquidity on GDP and stock prices are greater and more persistent in emerging economies than in liquidity recipient advanced economies. Moreover, global liquidity appreciates emerging economies' exchange rates more persistently than those of advanced economies. Lastly, while global liquidity expansion increases foreign portfolio investment inflows to Asian countries and liquidity recipient advanced economies, there is no evidence for Latin American countries.

  18. 76 FR 2930 - International Product Change-Global Expedited Package Services-Non- Published Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-18

    ... POSTAL SERVICE International Product Change--Global Expedited Package Services-- Non- Published... request with the Postal Regulatory Commission to add Global Expedited Package Services-- Non-Published...--Non-Published Rates, to the Competitive Products List, and Notice of Filing (Under Seal) the Enabling...

  19. A Global Data Set of Leaf Photosynthetic Rates, Leaf N and P, and Specific Leaf Area

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: This global data set of photosynthetic rates and leaf nutrient traits was compiled from a comprehensive literature review. It includes estimates of Vcmax...

  20. A Global Data Set of Leaf Photosynthetic Rates, Leaf N and P, and Specific Leaf Area

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This global data set of photosynthetic rates and leaf nutrient traits was compiled from a comprehensive literature review. It includes estimates of Vcmax (maximum...

  1. Global Self-rating Validation of the Measurement of Extraversion and Neuroticism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farley, Frank H.; Soper, Robert E.

    1976-01-01

    Results show that individuals identified by the personality inventory as extravert or introvert differed significantly in the expected direction on the global self ratings. The results were also obtained for neuroticism. (Author/DEP)

  2. Risk Assessment of Diabetes Mellitus by Chaotic Globals to Heart Rate Variability via Six Power Spectra

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Garner David M.

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: The priniciple objective here is to analyze cardiovascular dynamics in diabetic subjects by actions related to heart rate variability (HRV. The correlation of chaotic globals is vital to evaluate the probability of dynamical diseases.

  3. Insulin accelerates global and mitochondrial protein synthesis rates in neonatal muscle during sepsis

    Science.gov (United States)

    In neonatal pigs, sepsis decreases protein synthesis in skeletal muscle by decreasing translation initiation. However, insulin stimulates muscle protein synthesis despite persistent repression of translation initiation signaling. To determine whether the insulin-induced increase in global rates of m...

  4. Spreading, Infestation and Damage Rates and Adult Population Monitoring of Tomato Leaf Miner [Tuta absoluta (Meyrick) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae)] on Open Field Tomato Grown in the South Marmara Region of Turkey

    OpenAIRE

    ÇETİN, Gürsel; GÖKSEL, Pınar; DURA, Onur; HANTAŞ, Cemil

    2014-01-01

    This study was conducted in order to determine spreading, infestation and fruit damage rates and adult population monitoring of Tomato leaf miner, (Tuta absoluta, Meyrick) on open field tomato grown in the South Marmara Region (Bilecik, Bursa, Kocaeli, Sakarya and Yalova provinces) of Turkey in 2011-2012. As result of spreading studies carried out according to systematic sampling method, it was determined that all tomato locations in every province were infested by this pest. Infestation rate...

  5. REGIME SWITCHING DETERMINANTS OF SOVEREIGN CDS SPREADS: EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Umurcan Polat

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study, it is assessed the main determinants of sovereign CDS spreads in Turkey from January 2006 to December 2015. Before delving into the nonlinear Markov regime-switching model estimation, a conventional one-state linear model is estimated answering to what extent the sovereign credit risk is affected in between global and country-specific market variables and by credit ratings announcement changes. In broad strokes, the regime-switching analysis reveals that among domestic variables, it is the foreign exchange rate that affects the sovereign credit risk more in more volatile periods and among global variables, the indicators standing for global volatility risk premiums and international liquidity primarily influence the changes in the sovereign CDS spread in turbulent regimes whereas proxies for global risk free rate are significant more in tranquil regimes.

  6. Influence of birth rates and transmission rates on the global seasonality of rotavirus incidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitzer, Virginia E; Viboud, Cécile; Lopman, Ben A; Patel, Manish M; Parashar, Umesh D; Grenfell, Bryan T

    2011-11-07

    Rotavirus is a major cause of mortality in developing countries, and yet the dynamics of rotavirus in such settings are poorly understood. Rotavirus is typically less seasonal in the tropics, although recent observational studies have challenged the universality of this pattern. While numerous studies have examined the association between environmental factors and rotavirus incidence, here we explore the role of intrinsic factors. By fitting a mathematical model of rotavirus transmission dynamics to published age distributions of cases from 15 countries, we obtain estimates of local transmission rates. Model-predicted patterns of seasonal incidence based solely on differences in birth rates and transmission rates are significantly correlated with those observed (Spearman's ρ = 0.65, p birth rates and transmission rates and explore how vaccination may impact these patterns. Our results suggest that the relative lack of rotavirus seasonality observed in many tropical countries may be due to the high birth rates and transmission rates typical of developing countries rather than being driven primarily by environmental conditions. While vaccination is expected to decrease the overall burden of disease, it may increase the degree of seasonal variation in the incidence of rotavirus in some settings.

  7. Potential spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 by wildfowl: dispersal ranges and rates determined from large-scale satellite telemetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaidet, Nicolas; Cappelle, Julien; Takekawa, John Y.; Prosser, Diann J.; Iverson, Samuel A.; Douglas, David C.; Perry, William M.; Mundkur, Taej; Newman, Scott H.

    2010-01-01

    1. Migratory birds are major candidates for long-distance dispersal of zoonotic pathogens. In recent years, wildfowl have been suspected of contributing to the rapid geographic spread of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus. Experimental infection studies reveal that some wild ducks, geese and swans shed this virus asymptomatically and hence have the potential to spread it as they move. 2. We evaluate the dispersive potential of HPAI H5N1 viruses by wildfowl through an analysis of the movement range and movement rate of birds monitored by satellite telemetry in relation to the apparent asymptomatic infection duration (AID) measured in experimental studies. We analysed the first large-scale data set of wildfowl movements, including 228 birds from 19 species monitored by satellite telemetry in 2006–2009, over HPAI H5N1 affected regions of Asia, Europe and Africa. 3. Our results indicate that individual migratory wildfowl have the potential to disperse HPAI H5N1 over extensive distances, being able to perform movements of up to 2900 km within timeframes compatible with the duration of asymptomatic infection. 4. However, the likelihood of such virus dispersal over long distances by individual wildfowl is low: we estimate that for an individual migratory bird there are, on average, only 5–15 days per year when infection could result in the dispersal of HPAI H5N1 virus over 500 km. 5. Staging at stopover sites during migration is typically longer than the period of infection and viral shedding, preventing birds from dispersing a virus over several consecutive but interrupted long-distance movements. Intercontinental virus dispersion would therefore probably require relay transmission between a series of successively infected migratory birds. 6. Synthesis and applications. Our results provide a detailed quantitative assessment of the dispersive potential of HPAI H5N1 virus by selected migratory birds. Such dispersive potential rests on the

  8. Global Incidence and Mortality Rates of Stomach Cancer and the Human Development Index: an Ecological Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khazaei, Salman; Rezaeian, Shahab; Soheylizad, Mokhtar; Khazaei, Somayeh; Biderafsh, Azam

    2016-01-01

    Stomach cancer (SC) is the second leading cause of cancer death with the rate of 10.4% in the world. The correlation between the incidence and mortality rates of SC and human development index (HDI) has not been globally determined. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the association between the incidence and mortality rates of SC and HDI in various regions. In this global ecological study, we used the data about the incidence and mortality rate of SC and HDI from the global cancer project and the United Nations Development Programme database, respectively. In 2012, SCs were estimated to have affected a total of 951,594 individuals (crude rate: 13.5 per 100,000 individuals) with a male/female ratio of 1.97, and caused 723,073 deaths worldwide (crude rate: 10.2 per 100,000 individuals). There was a positive correlation between the HDI and both incidence (r=0.28, countries with high and very high HDI is remarkable which should be the top priority of interventions for global health policymakers. In addition, health programs should be provided to reduce the burden of this disease in the regions with high incidence and mortality rates of SC.

  9. Two-step rating-based 'double-faced applicability' test for sensory analysis of spread products as an alternative to descriptive analysis with trained panel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, In-Ah; den-Hollander, Elyn; Lee, Hye-Seong

    2018-03-01

    Descriptive analysis with a trained sensory panel has thus far been the most well defined methodology to characterize various products. However, in practical terms, intensive training in descriptive analysis has been recognized as a serious defect. To overcome this limitation, various novel rapid sensory profiling methodologies have been suggested in the literature. Among these, attribute-based methodologies such as check-all-that-apply (CATA) questions showed results comparable to those of conventional sensory descriptive analysis. Kim, Hopkinson, van Hout, and Lee (2017a, 2017b) have proposed a novel attribute-based methodology termed the two-step rating-based 'double-faced applicability' test with a novel output measure of applicability magnitude (d' A ) for measuring consumers' product usage experience throughout various product usage stages. In this paper, the potential of the two-step rating-based 'double-faced applicability' test with d' A was investigated as an alternative to conventional sensory descriptive analysis in terms of sensory characterization and product discrimination. Twelve commercial spread products were evaluated using both conventional sensory descriptive analysis with a trained sensory panel and two-step rating-based 'double-faced applicability' test with an untrained sensory panel. The results demonstrated that the 'double-faced applicability' test can be used to provide a direct measure of the applicability magnitude of sensory attributes of the samples tested in terms of d' A for sensory characterization of individual samples and multiple sample comparisons. This suggests that when the appropriate list of attributes to be used in the questionnaire is already available, the two-step rating-based 'double-faced applicability' test with d' A can be used as a more efficient alternative to conventional descriptive analysis, without requiring any intensive training process. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Simulation of the Universal-Time Diurnal Variation of the Global Electric Circuit Charging Rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackerras, D.; Darvenzia, M.; Orville, R. E.; Williams, E. R.; Goodman, S. J.

    1999-01-01

    A global lightning model that includes diurnal and annual lightning variation, and total flash density versus latitude for each major land and ocean, has been used as the basis for simulating the global electric circuit charging rate. A particular objective has been to reconcile the difference in amplitude ratios [AR=(max-min)/mean] between global lightning diurnal variation (AR approx. = 0.8) and the diurnal variation of typical atmospheric potential gradient curves (AR approx. = 0.35). A constraint on the simulation is that the annual mean charging current should be about 1000 A. The global lightning model shows that negative ground flashes can contribute, at most, about 10-15% of the required current. For the purpose of the charging rate simulation, it was assumed that each ground flash contributes 5 C to the charging process. It was necessary to assume that all electrified clouds contribute to charging by means other than lightning, that the total flash rate can serve as an indirect indicator of the rate of charge transfer, and that oceanic electrified clouds contribute to charging even though they are relatively inefficient in producing lightning. It was also found necessary to add a diurnally invariant charging current component. By trial and error it was found that charging rate diurnal variation curves in Universal time (UT) could be produced with amplitude ratios and general shapes similar to those of the potential gradient diurnal variation curves measured over ocean and arctic regions during voyages of the Carnegie Institute research vessels.

  11. Cooperative spreading processes in multiplex networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Xiang; Chen, Shihua; Wu, Xiaoqun; Ning, Di; Lu, Jun-An

    2016-06-01

    This study is concerned with the dynamic behaviors of epidemic spreading in multiplex networks. A model composed of two interacting complex networks is proposed to describe cooperative spreading processes, wherein the virus spreading in one layer can penetrate into the other to promote the spreading process. The global epidemic threshold of the model is smaller than the epidemic thresholds of the corresponding isolated networks. Thus, global epidemic onset arises in the interacting networks even though an epidemic onset does not arise in each isolated network. Simulations verify the analysis results and indicate that cooperative spreading processes in multiplex networks enhance the final infection fraction.

  12. Effects of green tea extract and α-tocopherol on the lipid oxidation rate of omega-3 oils, incorporated into table spreads, prepared using multiple emulsion technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dwyer, Sandra P O'; O'Beirne, David; Ní Eidhin, Deirdre; O'Kennedy, Brendan T

    2012-12-01

    This study examined the effectiveness of fat and water soluble antioxidants on the oxidative stability of omega (ω)-3 rich table spreads, produced using novel multiple emulsion technology. Table spreads were produced by dispersing an oil-in-water (O/W) emulsion (500 g/kg 85 camelina/15 fish oil blend) in a hardstock/rapeseed oil blend, using sodium caseinate and polyglycerol polyricinoleate as emulsifiers. The O/W and oil-in-water-in-oil (O/W/O) emulsions contained either a water soluble antioxidant (green tea extract [GTE]), an oil soluble antioxidant (α-Tocopherol), or both. Spreads containing α-Tocopherol had the highest lipid hydroperoxide values, whereas spreads containing GTE had the lowest (P < 0.05), during storage at 5°C, while p-Anisidine values did not differ significantly. Particle size was generally unaffected by antioxidant type (P < 0.05). Double emulsion (O/W/O) structures were clearly seen in confocal images of the spreads. By the end of storage, none of the spreads had significantly different G' values. Firmness (Newtons) of all spreads generally increased during storage (P < 0.05). © 2012 Institute of Food Technologists®

  13. Heat transfer and fire spread

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hal E. Anderson

    1969-01-01

    Experimental testing of a mathematical model showed that radiant heat transfer accounted for no more than 40% of total heat flux required to maintain rate of spread. A reasonable prediction of spread was possible by assuming a horizontal convective heat transfer coefficient when certain fuel and flame characteristics were known. Fuel particle size had a linear relation...

  14. Validity Evidence for the Interpretation and Use of Essential Elements of Communication Global Rating Scale Scores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, Nancy Rhoda

    2015-01-01

    Purpose. Clinical communication influences health outcomes, so medical schools are charged to prepare future physicians with the skills they need to interact effectively with patients. Communication leaders at The University of New Mexico School of Medicine (UNMSOM) developed The Essential Elements of Communication-Global Rating Scale (EEC-GRS) to…

  15. Domain-Specific Ratings of Importance and Global Self-Worth of Children with Visual Impairments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shapiro, Deborah R.; Moffett, Aaron; Lieberman, Lauren; Dummer, Gail M.

    2008-01-01

    This study examined perceived competence; ratings of importance of physical appearance, athletic competence, and social acceptance; discrepancy scores; and global self-worth of 43 children with visual impairments. The findings revealed that the children discounted the importance of physical appearance, athletic competence, and social acceptance…

  16. Modeling exchange rate volatility in CEEC countries: Impact of global financial and European sovereign debt crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miletić Siniša

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to envisage the impact of global financial (GFC and European sovereign debt crisis (ESDC on foreign exchange markets of emerg- ing countries in Central and Eastern Europe CEEC countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, poland and Serbia. The daily returns of exchange rates on Czech Republic koruna (CZK, Hungarian forint (HuF, Romanian lea (RoL, polish zloty (pLZ and Serbian dinar (RSD, all against the Euro are analyzed during the period from 3rd January 2000 to15th April 2013, in respect. To examine the impact of global financial crisis and European sovereign debt crisis, dummy variables were adopted. overall results imply that global financial crisis has no impact on exchange rate returns in selected CEEC countries, while European sovereign debt crisis inf luencing in depreciation of polish zloty by 8% and Roma- nian lea by 6%. obtained results by our calculation, imply that global financial crisis increased enhanced volatility on exchange rate returns of Czech koruna, Romanian lea and polish zloty. Moreover, results of empirical analysis imply that this impact has the strongest inf luence in volatility on exchange rate returns of polish zloty.

  17. No Evidence that Infection Alters Global Recombination Rate in House Mice.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beth L Dumont

    Full Text Available Recombination rate is a complex trait, with genetic and environmental factors shaping observed patterns of variation. Although recent studies have begun to unravel the genetic basis of recombination rate differences between organisms, less attention has focused on the environmental determinants of crossover rates. Here, we test the effect of one ubiquitous environmental pressure-bacterial infection-on global recombination frequency in mammals. We applied MLH1 mapping to assay global crossover rates in male mice infected with the pathogenic bacterium Borrelia burgdorferi, the causative agent of Lyme Disease, and uninfected control animals. Despite ample statistical power to identify biologically relevant differences between infected and uninfected animals, we find no evidence for a global recombination rate response to bacterial infection. Moreover, broad-scale patterns of crossover distribution, including the number of achiasmate bivalents, are not affected by infection status. Although pathogen exposure can plastically increase recombination in some species, our findings suggest that recombination rates in house mice may be resilient to at least some forms of infection stress. This negative result motivates future experiments with alternative house mouse pathogens to evaluate the generality of this conclusion.

  18. Marine denitrification rates determined from a global 3-D inverse model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. DeVries

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available A major impediment to understanding long-term changes in the marine nitrogen (N cycle is the persistent uncertainty about the rates, distribution, and sensitivity of its largest fluxes in the modern ocean. We use a global ocean circulation model to obtain the first 3-D estimate of marine denitrification rates that is maximally consistent with available observations of nitrate deficits and the nitrogen isotopic ratio of oceanic nitrate. We find a global rate of marine denitrification in suboxic waters and sediments of 120–240 Tg N yr−1, which is lower than many other recent estimates. The difference stems from the ability to represent the 3-D spatial structure of suboxic zones, where denitrification rates of 50–77 Tg N yr−1 result in up to 50% depletion of nitrate. This depletion reduces the effect of local isotopic enrichment on the rest of the ocean, allowing the N isotope ratio of oceanic nitrate to be achieved with a sedimentary denitrification rate about 1.3–2.3 times that of suboxic zones. This balance of N losses between sediments and suboxic zones is shown to obey a simple relationship between isotope fractionation and the degree of nitrate consumption in the core of the suboxic zones. The global denitrification rates derived here suggest that the marine nitrogen budget is likely close to balanced.

  19. A global reference for caesarean section rates (C-Model): a multicountry cross-sectional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Souza, J P; Betran, A P; Dumont, A; de Mucio, B; Gibbs Pickens, C M; Deneux-Tharaux, C; Ortiz-Panozo, E; Sullivan, E; Ota, E; Togoobaatar, G; Carroli, G; Knight, H; Zhang, J; Cecatti, J G; Vogel, J P; Jayaratne, K; Leal, M C; Gissler, M; Morisaki, N; Lack, N; Oladapo, O T; Tunçalp, Ö; Lumbiganon, P; Mori, R; Quintana, S; Costa Passos, A D; Marcolin, A C; Zongo, A; Blondel, B; Hernández, B; Hogue, C J; Prunet, C; Landman, C; Ochir, C; Cuesta, C; Pileggi-Castro, C; Walker, D; Alves, D; Abalos, E; Moises, Ecd; Vieira, E M; Duarte, G; Perdona, G; Gurol-Urganci, I; Takahiko, K; Moscovici, L; Campodonico, L; Oliveira-Ciabati, L; Laopaiboon, M; Danansuriya, M; Nakamura-Pereira, M; Costa, M L; Torloni, M R; Kramer, M R; Borges, P; Olkhanud, P B; Pérez-Cuevas, R; Agampodi, S B; Mittal, S; Serruya, S; Bataglia, V; Li, Z; Temmerman, M; Gülmezoglu, A M

    2016-02-01

    To generate a global reference for caesarean section (CS) rates at health facilities. Cross-sectional study. Health facilities from 43 countries. Thirty eight thousand three hundred and twenty-four women giving birth from 22 countries for model building and 10,045,875 women giving birth from 43 countries for model testing. We hypothesised that mathematical models could determine the relationship between clinical-obstetric characteristics and CS. These models generated probabilities of CS that could be compared with the observed CS rates. We devised a three-step approach to generate the global benchmark of CS rates at health facilities: creation of a multi-country reference population, building mathematical models, and testing these models. Area under the ROC curves, diagnostic odds ratio, expected CS rate, observed CS rate. According to the different versions of the model, areas under the ROC curves suggested a good discriminatory capacity of C-Model, with summary estimates ranging from 0.832 to 0.844. The C-Model was able to generate expected CS rates adjusted for the case-mix of the obstetric population. We have also prepared an e-calculator to facilitate use of C-Model (www.who.int/reproductivehealth/publications/maternal_perinatal_health/c-model/en/). This article describes the development of a global reference for CS rates. Based on maternal characteristics, this tool was able to generate an individualised expected CS rate for health facilities or groups of health facilities. With C-Model, obstetric teams, health system managers, health facilities, health insurance companies, and governments can produce a customised reference CS rate for assessing use (and overuse) of CS. The C-Model provides a customized benchmark for caesarean section rates in health facilities and systems. © 2015 World Health Organization; licensed by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

  20. Credit Rating As a Factor of Stability in the Global Capital Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ismail Musabegović

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Credit rating has an outstanding importance on the capital market. Opinions and assessments of rating agencies help us to improve growth, stability and efficiency of international and domestic markets, which now include over 80 trillion dollars of rated bonds and other securities with the fixed income. The contribution of the credit agencies to the market stability and efficiency is reflected in their ability to provide accurate, clear and reliable assessments of the solvency of participants on the financial markets. An adequate and proper risk assessment of securities contributes to stability. In order to achieve a given goal and to satisfy its purpose, the assessments should be based on a fundamental understanding of the key components of the credit risk. Also, in order to ensure a reliable framework for making investment decisions, the rating agencies are obliged to offer and to provide a wide range of securities, which are based on a global comparability of rating symbols and onthe support given by the credit rating assignment committee and by the other relevant decision making bodies. Markets for structured products could not have developed without the quality assurance provided by CRAs. When analyzing a securitization program CRAs examine legal and structural protections provided to investors. Since the globalization is an inevitable phenomenon in today’s world the importance of the credit rating becomes more noticeable. On the other hand, the rating agencies have an obligation to reanalyze their decision making models in order to contribute tothe reliability of the evaluation.

  1. Seafloor Age-Stacking Reveals No Evidence for Milankovitch Cycle Influence on Abyssal Hills at Intermediate, Fast and Super-Fast Spreading Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goff, J.; Zahirovic, S.; Müller, D.

    2017-12-01

    Recently published spectral analyses of seafloor bathymetry concluded that abyssal hills, highly linear ridges that are formed along seafloor spreading centers, exhibit periodicities that correspond to Milankovitch cycles - variations in Earth's orbit that affect climate on periods of 23, 41 and 100 thousand years. These studies argue that this correspondence could be explained by modulation of volcanic output at the mid-ocean ridge due to lithostatic pressure variations associated with rising and falling sea level. If true, then the implications are substantial: mapping the topography of the seafloor with sonar could be used as a way to investigate past climate change. This "Milankovitch cycle" hypothesis predicts that the rise and fall of abyssal hills will be correlated to crustal age, which can be tested by stacking, or averaging, bathymetry as a function of age; stacking will enhance any age-dependent signal while suppressing random components, such as fault-generated topography. We apply age-stacking to data flanking the Southeast Indian Ridge ( 3.6 cm/yr half rate), northern East Pacific Rise ( 5.4 cm/yr half rate) and southern East Pacific Rise ( 7.8 cm/yr half rate), where multibeam bathymetric coverage is extensive on the ridge flanks. At the greatest precision possible given magnetic anomaly data coverage, we have revised digital crustal age models in these regions with updated axis and magnetic anomaly traces. We also utilize known 2nd-order spatial statistical properties of abyssal hills to predict the variability of the age-stack under the null hypothesis that abyssal hills are entirely random with respect to crustal age; the age-stacked profile is significantly different from zero only if it exceeds this expected variability by a large margin. Our results indicate, however, that the null hypothesis satisfactorily explains the age-stacking results in all three regions of study, thus providing no support for the Milankovitch cycle hypothesis. The

  2. Phylogeographic variation in recombination rates within a global clone of Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Castillo-Ramirez, Santiago; Corander, Jukka; Marttinen, Pekka

    2012-01-01

    by employing a recently developed Bayesian approach, BRATNextGen, for detecting recombination on an expanded NGS dataset of the globally disseminated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) clone ST239. RESULTS: The data confirm strong geographical clustering at continental, national and city scales...... that the rapid global dissemination of a single pathogenic bacterial clone results in local variation in measured recombination rates. Possible explanatory variables include the size and time since emergence of each defined sub-population (as determined by the sampling frame), variation in transmission dynamics...

  3. Estimate of the global-scale joule heating rates in the thermosphere due to time mean currents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roble, R.G.; Matsushita, S.

    1975-01-01

    An estimate of the global-scale joule heating rates in the thermosphere is made based on derived global equivalent overhead electric current systems in the dynamo region during geomagnetically quiet and disturbed periods. The equivalent total electric field distribution is calculated from Ohm's law. The global-scale joule heating rates are calculated for various monthly average periods in 1965. The calculated joule heating rates maximize at high latitudes in the early evening and postmidnight sectors. During geomagnetically quiet times the daytime joule heating rates are considerably lower than heating by solar EUV radiation. However, during geomagnetically disturbed periods the estimated joule heating rates increase by an order of magnitude and can locally exceed the solar EUV heating rates. The results show that joule heating is an important and at times the dominant energy source at high latitudes. However, the global mean joule heating rates calculated near solar minimum are generally small compared to the global mean solar EUV heating rates. (auth)

  4. Estimates of global HIV/AIDS mortality, prevalence and incidence rates, and their association with the Human Development Index

    OpenAIRE

    Kamyar Mansori; Erfan Ayubi; Fatemeh Khosravi Shadmani; Shiva Mansouri Hanis; Somayeh Khazaei; Mohadeseh Sani; Yousef Moradi; Salman Khazaei; Abolfazl Mohammadbeigi

    2017-01-01

    Background: HIV/AIDS is one of greatest global public health concerns today due to the high incidence, prevalence and mortality rates. The aim of this research was investigate and estimate the global HIV/AIDS mortality, prevalence and incidence rates, and explore their associations with the Human Development Index. Methods: The global age-standardized rates of mortality, prevalence and incidence of HIV/AIDS were obtained from the UNAIDS for different countries in 2015. The human developm...

  5. Global malaria connectivity through air travel

    OpenAIRE

    Huang, Zhuojie; Tatem, Andrew J

    2013-01-01

    Background Air travel has expanded at an unprecedented rate and continues to do so. Its effects have been seen on malaria in rates of imported cases, local outbreaks in non-endemic areas and the global spread of drug resistance. With elimination and global eradication back on the agenda, changing levels and compositions of imported malaria in malaria-free countries, and the threat of artemisinin resistance spreading from Southeast Asia, there is a need to better understand how the modern flow...

  6. Integrated Strategic Planning of Global Production Networks and Financial Hedging under Uncertain Demands and Exchange Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Achim Koberstein

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we present a multi-stage stochastic programming model that integrates financial hedging decisions into the planning of strategic production networks under uncertain exchange rates and product demands. This model considers the expenses of production plants and the revenues of markets in different currency areas. Financial portfolio planning decisions for two types of financial instruments, forward contracts and options, are represented explicitly by multi-period decision variables and a multi-stage scenario tree. Using an illustrative example, we analyze the impact of exchange-rate and demand volatility, the level of investment expenses and interest rate spreads on capacity location and dimensioning decisions. In particular, we show that, in the illustrative example, the exchange-rate uncertainty cannot be completely eliminated by financial hedging in the presence of demand uncertainty. In this situation, we find that the integrated model can result in better strategic planning decisions for a risk-averse decision maker compared to traditional modeling approaches.

  7. Organic carbon burial rates in mangrove sediments: Strengthening the global budget

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breithaupt, Joshua L.; Smoak, Joseph M.; Smith, Thomas J., III; Sanders, Christian J.; Hoare, Armando

    2012-09-01

    Mangrove wetlands exist in the transition zone between terrestrial and marine environments and as such were historically overlooked in discussions of terrestrial and marine carbon cycling. In recent decades, mangroves have increasingly been credited with producing and burying large quantities of organic carbon (OC). The amount of available data regarding OC burial in mangrove soils has more than doubled since the last primary literature review (2003). This includes data from some of the largest, most developed mangrove forests in the world, providing an opportunity to strengthen the global estimate. First-time representation is now included for mangroves in Brazil, Colombia, Malaysia, Indonesia, China, Japan, Vietnam, and Thailand, along with additional data from Mexico and the United States. Our objective is to recalculate the centennial-scale burial rate of OC at both the local and global scales. Quantification of this rate enables better understanding of the current carbon sink capacity of mangroves as well as helps to quantify and/or validate the other aspects of the mangrove carbon budget such as import, export, and remineralization. Statistical analysis of the data supports use of the geometric mean as the most reliable central tendency measurement. Our estimate is that mangrove systems bury 163 (+40; -31) g OC m-2 yr-1 (95% C.I.). Globally, the 95% confidence interval for the annual burial rate is 26.1 (+6.3; -5.1) Tg OC. This equates to a burial fraction that is 42% larger than that of the most recent mangrove carbon budget (2008), and represents 10-15% of estimated annual mangrove production. This global rate supports previous conclusions that, on a centennial time scale, 8-15% of all OC burial in marine settings occurs in mangrove systems.

  8. The adaptation rate of terrestrial ecosystems as a critical factor in global climate dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fuessler, J S; Gassmann, F [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

    1999-08-01

    A conceptual climate model describing regional two-way atmosphere-vegetation interaction has been extended by a simple qualitative scheme of ecosystem adaptation to drought stress. The results of this explorative study indicate that the role of terrestrial vegetation under different forcing scenarios depends crucially on the rate of the ecosystems adaptation to drought stress. The faster the adaptation of important ecosystems such as forests the better global climate is protected from abrupt climate changes. (author) 1 fig., 3 refs.

  9. Organic carbon burial rates in mangrove sediments: strengthening the global budget

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breithaupt, J.; Smoak, Joseph M.; Smith, Thomas J.; Sanders, Christian J.; Hoare, Armando

    2012-01-01

    Mangrove wetlands exist in the transition zone between terrestrial and marine environments and as such were historically overlooked in discussions of terrestrial and marine carbon cycling. In recent decades, mangroves have increasingly been credited with producing and burying large quantities of organic carbon (OC). The amount of available data regarding OC burial in mangrove soils has more than doubled since the last primary literature review (2003). This includes data from some of the largest, most developed mangrove forests in the world, providing an opportunity to strengthen the global estimate. First-time representation is now included for mangroves in Brazil, Colombia, Malaysia, Indonesia, China, Japan, Vietnam, and Thailand, along with additional data from Mexico and the United States. Our objective is to recalculate the centennial-scale burial rate of OC at both the local and global scales. Quantification of this rate enables better understanding of the current carbon sink capacity of mangroves as well as helps to quantify and/or validate the other aspects of the mangrove carbon budget such as import, export, and remineralization. Statistical analysis of the data supports use of the geometric mean as the most reliable central tendency measurement. Our estimate is that mangrove systems bury 163 (+40; -31) g OC m-2 yr-1 (95% C.I.). Globally, the 95% confidence interval for the annual burial rate is 26.1 (+6.3; -5.1) Tg OC. This equates to a burial fraction that is 42% larger than that of the most recent mangrove carbon budget (2008), and represents 10–15% of estimated annual mangrove production. This global rate supports previous conclusions that, on a centennial time scale, 8–15% of all OC burial in marine settings occurs in mangrove systems.

  10. Intergenic DNA sequences from the human X chromosome reveal high rates of global gene flow

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wall Jeffrey D

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Despite intensive efforts devoted to collecting human polymorphism data, little is known about the role of gene flow in the ancestry of human populations. This is partly because most analyses have applied one of two simple models of population structure, the island model or the splitting model, which make unrealistic biological assumptions. Results Here, we analyze 98-kb of DNA sequence from 20 independently evolving intergenic regions on the X chromosome in a sample of 90 humans from six globally diverse populations. We employ an isolation-with-migration (IM model, which assumes that populations split and subsequently exchange migrants, to independently estimate effective population sizes and migration rates. While the maximum effective size of modern humans is estimated at ~10,000, individual populations vary substantially in size, with African populations tending to be larger (2,300–9,000 than non-African populations (300–3,300. We estimate mean rates of bidirectional gene flow at 4.8 × 10-4/generation. Bidirectional migration rates are ~5-fold higher among non-African populations (1.5 × 10-3 than among African populations (2.7 × 10-4. Interestingly, because effective sizes and migration rates are inversely related in African and non-African populations, population migration rates are similar within Africa and Eurasia (e.g., global mean Nm = 2.4. Conclusion We conclude that gene flow has played an important role in structuring global human populations and that migration rates should be incorporated as critical parameters in models of human demography.

  11. Parents' global rating of mental health correlates with SF-36 scores and health services satisfaction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mah, Jean K; Tough, Suzanne; Fung, Thomas; Douglas-England, Kathleen; Verhoef, Marja

    2006-10-01

    Patient satisfaction surveys are often used to measure quality of care. However, patient satisfaction may not be a reliable indicator of service quality because satisfaction can be influenced by clients' characteristics such as their health status. Parents of children attending a pediatric neurology clinic completed the Short Form Health Survey (SF-36) and global ratings of their physical and mental health. They also completed the Client Satisfaction Questionnaire (CSQ), the Measure of Processes of Care (MPOC), and the Family-Centered Care Survey (FCCS). 104 parents completed the survey. The correlation between the global rating of physical or mental health and their corresponding SF-36 scores was high. The majority (88%) of parents were satisfied, with a median CSQ score of 28 (IQR, 24 to 31) and a FCCS score of 4.7 (IQR, 4.2 to 4.9). Logistic regression identified parents' mental health as a significant predictor of client satisfaction (OR, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.14). Given the positive association between parents' mental health and satisfaction with care, it is important to consider mental status as a covariate in interpreting satisfaction surveys. Parents' global rating of mental health appears to be a reasonable indicator of their SF-36 mental scores.

  12. Global observation of Omori-law decay in the rate of triggered earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parsons, T.

    2001-12-01

    Triggered earthquakes can be large, damaging, and lethal as evidenced by the 1999 shocks in Turkey and the 2001 events in El Salvador. In this study, earthquakes with M greater than 7.0 from the Harvard CMT catalog are modeled as dislocations to calculate shear stress changes on subsequent earthquake rupture planes near enough to be affected. About 61% of earthquakes that occurred near the main shocks are associated with calculated shear stress increases, while ~39% are associated with shear stress decreases. If earthquakes associated with calculated shear stress increases are interpreted as triggered, then such events make up at least 8% of the CMT catalog. Globally, triggered earthquakes obey an Omori-law rate decay that lasts between ~7-11 years after the main shock. Earthquakes associated with calculated shear stress increases occur at higher rates than background up to 240 km away from the main-shock centroid. Earthquakes triggered by smaller quakes (foreshocks) also obey Omori's law, which is one of the few time-predictable patterns evident in the global occurrence of earthquakes. These observations indicate that earthquake probability calculations which include interactions from previous shocks should incorporate a transient Omori-law decay with time. In addition, a very simple model using the observed global rate change with time and spatial distribution of triggered earthquakes can be applied to immediately assess the likelihood of triggered earthquakes following large events, and can be in place until more sophisticated analyses are conducted.

  13. Process contributions to the intermodel spread in amplified Arctic warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boeke, R.; Taylor, P. C.

    2016-12-01

    The Arctic is warming at a rate more than twice the global average. This robust climate system response to an external forcing is referred to as Arctic Amplification (AA). While Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate models simulate AA, the largest intermodel spread in projected warming is also found in the Arctic. Quantifying the amount of polar warming relative to global warming influences how society adapts to climate change; a 2°C increase in global mean temperature would result in a polar warming between 4-8°C according to the intermodel spread in CMIP5 simulations. A trove of previous work has considered AA diagnostically using variations in the surface energy budget to attribute the intermodel spread in AA to an assortment of feedbacks—surface albedo, cloud, surface turbulent flux, and atmospheric and oceanic energy transport. We consider a systems-thinking approach treating AA as a process that evolves over time. We hypothesize that two specific components of the AA process are most important and influence the intermodel spread. (1) The inability of the Arctic system to effectively remove excess heat sourced from natural variability. The change in the efficiency of the `Arctic air conditioner' is thought to be due to thinner and less extensive sea ice and the resulting ice albedo feedback. (2) The process through which energy is stored in the ocean and exchanged with the atmosphere within the context of the sea ice annual cycle is also important. This study uses CMIP5 simulations from the historical and RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway; an emission scenario with forcing increasing to 8.5 W m-2 by 2100) to analyze how the AA process operates in present and future climate. The intermodel spread in these processes and the influence on the spread in AA are discussed. This approach identifies models that more realistically simulate the AA process and will aid in narrowing intermodel spread in Arctic surface temperature

  14. A global gas flaring black carbon emission rate dataset from 1994 to 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Kan; Fu, Joshua S.

    2016-11-01

    Global flaring of associated petroleum gas is a potential emission source of particulate matters (PM) and could be notable in some specific regions that are in urgent need of mitigation. PM emitted from gas flaring is mainly in the form of black carbon (BC), which is a strong short-lived climate forcer. However, BC from gas flaring has been neglected in most global/regional emission inventories and is rarely considered in climate modeling. Here we present a global gas flaring BC emission rate dataset for the period 1994-2012 in a machine-readable format. We develop a region-dependent gas flaring BC emission factor database based on the chemical compositions of associated petroleum gas at various oil fields. Gas flaring BC emission rates are estimated using this emission factor database and flaring volumes retrieved from satellite imagery. Evaluation using a chemical transport model suggests that consideration of gas flaring emissions can improve model performance. This dataset will benefit and inform a broad range of research topics, e.g., carbon budget, air quality/climate modeling, and environmental/human exposure.

  15. Database of diazotrophs in global ocean: abundance, biomass and nitrogen fixation rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y.-W. Luo

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Marine N2 fixing microorganisms, termed diazotrophs, are a key functional group in marine pelagic ecosystems. The biological fixation of dinitrogen (N2 to bioavailable nitrogen provides an important new source of nitrogen for pelagic marine ecosystems and influences primary productivity and organic matter export to the deep ocean. As one of a series of efforts to collect biomass and rates specific to different phytoplankton functional groups, we have constructed a database on diazotrophic organisms in the global pelagic upper ocean by compiling about 12 000 direct field measurements of cyanobacterial diazotroph abundances (based on microscopic cell counts or qPCR assays targeting the nifH genes and N2 fixation rates. Biomass conversion factors are estimated based on cell sizes to convert abundance data to diazotrophic biomass. The database is limited spatially, lacking large regions of the ocean especially in the Indian Ocean. The data are approximately log-normal distributed, and large variances exist in most sub-databases with non-zero values differing 5 to 8 orders of magnitude. Reporting the geometric mean and the range of one geometric standard error below and above the geometric mean, the pelagic N2 fixation rate in the global ocean is estimated to be 62 (52–73 Tg N yr−1 and the pelagic diazotrophic biomass in the global ocean is estimated to be 2.1 (1.4–3.1 Tg C from cell counts and to 89 (43–150 Tg C from nifH-based abundances. Reporting the arithmetic mean and one standard error instead, these three global estimates are 140 ± 9.2 Tg N yr−1, 18 ± 1.8 Tg C and 590 ± 70 Tg C, respectively. Uncertainties related to biomass conversion factors can change the estimate of geometric mean pelagic diazotrophic biomass in the global ocean by about ±70%. It was recently established that the most commonly applied method used to measure N2

  16. Global environmental ratings as an instrument of environmental policies: what factors determine the rank of Russia?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alekseeva, Nina; Arshinova, Marina; Milanova, Elena

    2017-04-01

    Systems of global environmental rankings have emerged as a result of the escalating need for revealing the trends of ecological development for the world and for certain countries and regions. Both the environmental indicators and indexes and the ratings made on their basis are important for the assessment and forecast of the ecological situation in order to tackle the global and regional problems of sustainable development and help to translate the research findings into policy developments. Data sources for the global environmental ratings are most often the statistical information accumulated in databases of the international organizations (World Bank, World Resources Institute, FAO, WHO, etc.) These data are highly reliable and well-comparable that makes the ratings very objective. There are also good examples of using data of sociological polls, information from social networks, etc. The global environmental ratings are produced by the international organizations (World Bank, World Resources Institute, the UN Environment Program), non-governmental associations (WWF, Climate Action Network Europe (CAN-E), Germanwatch Nord-Süd-Initiative, Friends of the Earth, World Development Movement), research structures (scientific centers of the Yale and Colombian universities, the Oak-Ridge National Laboratory, the New Economic Foundation), and also individual experts, news agencies, etc. Thematic (sectoral) ratings cover various spheres from availability of resources and anthropogenic impact on environment components to nature protection policies and perception of environmental problems. The environmental indicators cover all parameters important for understanding the current ecological situation and the trajectories of its development (the DPSIR model, i.e. drivers, pressures, state, impact and response). Complex (integral) ratings are based on environmental indexes which are combined measurement tools using a complex of aggregated indicators based on a wide range of

  17. Limiting global-mean temperature increase to 1.5–2 °C could reduce the incidence and spatial spread of dengue fever in Latin America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Ian; Osborn, Timothy J.; Steiner São Bernardo, Christine; Peres, Carlos A.; Lake, Iain R.

    2018-01-01

    The Paris Climate Agreement aims to hold global-mean temperature well below 2 °C and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels. While it is recognized that there are benefits for human health in limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, the magnitude with which those societal benefits will be accrued remains unquantified. Crucial to public health preparedness and response is the understanding and quantification of such impacts at different levels of warming. Using dengue in Latin America as a study case, a climate-driven dengue generalized additive mixed model was developed to predict global warming impacts using five different global circulation models, all scaled to represent multiple global-mean temperature assumptions. We show that policies to limit global warming to 2 °C could reduce dengue cases by about 2.8 (0.8–7.4) million cases per year by the end of the century compared with a no-policy scenario that warms by 3.7 °C. Limiting warming further to 1.5 °C produces an additional drop in cases of about 0.5 (0.2–1.1) million per year. Furthermore, we found that by limiting global warming we can limit the expansion of the disease toward areas where incidence is currently low. We anticipate our study to be a starting point for more comprehensive studies incorporating socioeconomic scenarios and how they may further impact dengue incidence. Our results demonstrate that although future climate change may amplify dengue transmission in the region, impacts may be avoided by constraining the level of warming. PMID:29844166

  18. Colonic motility and enema spreading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hardy, J.G.; Wood, E.; Clark, A.G.; Reynolds, J.R.; Queen's Medical Centre, Nottingham

    1986-01-01

    Radiolabelled enema solution was administered to eight healthy subjects, both in fasted and fed states. Enema spreading was monitored over a 4-h period using gamma scintigraphy and colonic motility was recorded simultaneously using a pressure sensitive radiotelemetry capsule. The rate and extent of enema dispersion were unaffected by eating. Spreading could be correlated with colonic motility and was inhibited by aboral propulsion of the colonic contents. (orig.)

  19. The Euro area sovereign debt crisis: safe haven, credit rating agencies and the spread of the fever from Greece, Ireland and Portugal

    OpenAIRE

    De Santis, Roberto A.

    2012-01-01

    Since the intensification of the crisis in September 2008, all euro area long-term government bond yields relative to the German Bund have been characterised by highly persistent processes with upward trends for countries with weaker fiscal fundamentals. Looking at the daily period 1 September 2008 - 4 August 2011, we find that three factors can explain the recorded developments in sovereign spreads: (i) an aggregate regional risk factor, (ii) the country-specific credit risk and (iii) the sp...

  20. Global distribution of moisture, evaporation-precipitation, and diabatic heating rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christy, John R.

    1989-01-01

    Global archives were established for ECMWF 12-hour, multilevel analysis beginning 1 January 1985; day and night IR temperatures, and solar incoming and solar absorbed. Routines were written to access these data conveniently from NASA/MSFC MASSTOR facility for diagnostic analysis. Calculations of diabatic heating rates were performed from the ECMWF data using 4-day intervals. Calculations of precipitable water (W) from 1 May 1985 were carried out using the ECMWF data. Because a major operational change on 1 May 1985 had a significant impact on the moisture field, values prior to that date are incompatible with subsequent analyses.

  1. Global water cycle amplifying at less than the Clausius-Clapeyron rate

    OpenAIRE

    Skliris, Nikolaos; Zika, Jan D.; Nurser, George; Josey, Simon A.; Marsh, Robert

    2016-01-01

    A change in the cycle of water from dry to wet regions of the globe would have far reaching impact on humanity. As air warms, its capacity to hold water increases at the Clausius-Clapeyron rate (CC, approximately 7%?°C?1). Surface ocean salinity observations have suggested the water cycle has amplified at close to CC following recent global warming, a result that was found to be at odds with state-of the art climate models. Here we employ a method based on water mass transformation theory for...

  2. Tempo of Diversification of Global Amphibians: One-Constant Rate, One-Continuous Shift or Multiple-Discrete Shifts?

    OpenAIRE

    Youhua Chen

    2014-01-01

    In this brief report, alternative time-varying diversification rate models were fitted onto the phylogeny of global amphibians by considering one-constant-rate (OCR), one-continuous-shift (OCS) and multiplediscrete- shifts (MDS) situations. The OCS diversification model was rejected by γ statistic (γ=-5.556, p⁄ 0.001), implying the existence of shifting diversification rates for global amphibian phylogeny. Through model selection, MDS diversification model outperformed OCS and OCR...

  3. Infectious diseases epidemic threats and mass gatherings: Refocusing global attention on the continuing spread of the Middle East Respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zumla, A. (Alimuddin); Alagaili, A.N. (Abdulaziz N.); Cotten, M. (Matthew); Azhar, E.I. (Esam I.)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractMedia and World Health Organization (WHO) attention on Zika virus transmission at the 2016 Rio Olympic Games and the 2015 Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa diverted the attention of global public health authorities from other lethal infectious diseases with epidemic potential. Mass

  4. A Globally Stable Lyapunov Pointing and Rate Controller for the Magnetospheric MultiScale Mission (MMS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, Neerav

    2011-01-01

    The Magnetospheric MultiScale Mission (MMS) is scheduled to launch in late 2014. Its primary goal is to discover the fundamental plasma physics processes of reconnection in the Earth's magnetosphere. Each of the four MMS spacecraft is spin-stabilized at a nominal rate of 3 RPM. Traditional spin-stabilized spacecraft have used a number of separate modes to control nutation, spin rate, and precession. To reduce the number of modes and simplify operations, the Delta-H control mode is designed to accomplish nutation control, spin rate control, and precession control simultaneously. A nonlinear design technique, Lyapunov's method, is used to design the Delta-H control mode. A global spin rate controller selected as the baseline controller for MMS, proved to be insufficient due to an ambiguity in the attitude. Lyapunov's design method was used to solve this ambiguity, resulting in a controller that meets the design goals. Simulation results show the advantage of the pointing and rate controller for maneuvers larger than 90 deg and provide insight into the performance of this controller.

  5. Extinction of fish-shaped marine reptiles associated with reduced evolutionary rates and global environmental volatility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Valentin; Bardet, Nathalie; Benson, Roger B J; Arkhangelsky, Maxim S; Friedman, Matt

    2016-03-08

    Despite their profound adaptations to the aquatic realm and their apparent success throughout the Triassic and the Jurassic, ichthyosaurs became extinct roughly 30 million years before the end-Cretaceous mass extinction. Current hypotheses for this early demise involve relatively minor biotic events, but are at odds with recent understanding of the ichthyosaur fossil record. Here, we show that ichthyosaurs maintained high but diminishing richness and disparity throughout the Early Cretaceous. The last ichthyosaurs are characterized by reduced rates of origination and phenotypic evolution and their elevated extinction rates correlate with increased environmental volatility. In addition, we find that ichthyosaurs suffered from a profound Early Cenomanian extinction that reduced their ecological diversity, likely contributing to their final extinction at the end of the Cenomanian. Our results support a growing body of evidence revealing that global environmental change resulted in a major, temporally staggered turnover event that profoundly reorganized marine ecosystems during the Cenomanian.

  6. Extraction of elementary rate constants from global network analysis of E. coli central metabolism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Broderick Gordon

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background As computational performance steadily increases, so does interest in extending one-particle-per-molecule models to larger physiological problems. Such models however require elementary rate constants to calculate time-dependent rate coefficients under physiological conditions. Unfortunately, even when in vivo kinetic data is available, it is often in the form of aggregated rate laws (ARL that do not specify the required elementary rate constants corresponding to mass-action rate laws (MRL. There is therefore a need to develop a method which is capable of automatically transforming ARL kinetic information into more detailed MRL rate constants. Results By incorporating proteomic data related to enzyme abundance into an MRL modelling framework, here we present an efficient method operating at a global network level for extracting elementary rate constants from experiment-based aggregated rate law (ARL models. The method combines two techniques that can be used to overcome the difficult properties in parameterization. The first, a hybrid MRL/ARL modelling technique, is used to divide the parameter estimation problem into sub-problems, so that the parameters of the mass action rate laws for each enzyme are estimated in separate steps. This reduces the number of parameters that have to be optimized simultaneously. The second, a hybrid algebraic-numerical simulation and optimization approach, is used to render some rate constants identifiable, as well as to greatly narrow the bounds of the other rate constants that remain unidentifiable. This is done by incorporating equality constraints derived from the King-Altman and Cleland method into the simulated annealing algorithm. We apply these two techniques to estimate the rate constants of a model of E. coli glycolytic pathways. The simulation and statistical results show that our innovative method performs well in dealing with the issues of high computation cost, stiffness, local

  7. Extraction of elementary rate constants from global network analysis of E. coli central metabolism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Jiao; Ridgway, Douglas; Broderick, Gordon; Kovalenko, Andriy; Ellison, Michael

    2008-01-01

    Background As computational performance steadily increases, so does interest in extending one-particle-per-molecule models to larger physiological problems. Such models however require elementary rate constants to calculate time-dependent rate coefficients under physiological conditions. Unfortunately, even when in vivo kinetic data is available, it is often in the form of aggregated rate laws (ARL) that do not specify the required elementary rate constants corresponding to mass-action rate laws (MRL). There is therefore a need to develop a method which is capable of automatically transforming ARL kinetic information into more detailed MRL rate constants. Results By incorporating proteomic data related to enzyme abundance into an MRL modelling framework, here we present an efficient method operating at a global network level for extracting elementary rate constants from experiment-based aggregated rate law (ARL) models. The method combines two techniques that can be used to overcome the difficult properties in parameterization. The first, a hybrid MRL/ARL modelling technique, is used to divide the parameter estimation problem into sub-problems, so that the parameters of the mass action rate laws for each enzyme are estimated in separate steps. This reduces the number of parameters that have to be optimized simultaneously. The second, a hybrid algebraic-numerical simulation and optimization approach, is used to render some rate constants identifiable, as well as to greatly narrow the bounds of the other rate constants that remain unidentifiable. This is done by incorporating equality constraints derived from the King-Altman and Cleland method into the simulated annealing algorithm. We apply these two techniques to estimate the rate constants of a model of E. coli glycolytic pathways. The simulation and statistical results show that our innovative method performs well in dealing with the issues of high computation cost, stiffness, local minima and uncertainty

  8. The Effects of Time Lag and Cure Rate on the Global Dynamics of HIV-1 Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nigar Ali

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this research article, a new mathematical model of delayed differential equations is developed which discusses the interaction among CD4 T cells, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV, and recombinant virus with cure rate. The model has two distributed intracellular delays. These delays denote the time needed for the infection of a cell. The dynamics of the model are completely described by the basic reproduction numbers represented by R0, R1, and R2. It is shown that if R0<1, then the infection-free equilibrium is locally as well as globally stable. Similarly, it is proved that the recombinant absent equilibrium is locally as well as globally asymptotically stable if 1rate have a positive role in the reduction of infected cells and the increasing of uninfected cells due to which the infection is reduced.

  9. A parsimonious characterization of change in global age-specific and total fertility rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-01

    This study aims to understand trends in global fertility from 1950-2010 though the analysis of age-specific fertility rates. This approach incorporates both the overall level, as when the total fertility rate is modeled, and different patterns of age-specific fertility to examine the relationship between changes in age-specific fertility and fertility decline. Singular value decomposition is used to capture the variation in age-specific fertility curves while reducing the number of dimensions, allowing curves to be described nearly fully with three parameters. Regional patterns and trends over time are evident in parameter values, suggesting this method provides a useful tool for considering fertility decline globally. The second and third parameters were analyzed using model-based clustering to examine patterns of age-specific fertility over time and place; four clusters were obtained. A country’s demographic transition can be traced through time by membership in the different clusters, and regional patterns in the trajectories through time and with fertility decline are identified. PMID:29377899

  10. Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  11. Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-01-01

    There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  12. What happened after the initial global spread of pandemic human influenza virus A (H1N1? A population genetics approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martinez-Hernandez Fernando

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Viral population evolution dynamics of influenza A is crucial for surveillance and control. In this paper we analyzed viral genetic features during the recent pandemic caused by the new influenza human virus A H1N1, using a conventional population genetics approach based on 4689 hemagglutinin (HA and neuraminidase (NA sequences available in GenBank submitted between March and December of 2009. This analysis showed several relevant aspects: a a scarce initial genetic variability within the viral isolates from some countries that increased along 2009 when influenza was dispersed around the world; b a worldwide virus polarized behavior identified when comparing paired countries, low differentiation and high gene flow were found in some pairs and high differentiation and moderate or scarce gene flow in others, independently of their geographical closeness, c lack of positive selection in HA and NA due to increase of the population size of virus variants, d HA and NA variants spread in a few months all over the world being identified in the same countries in different months along 2009, and e containment of viral variants in Mexico at the beginning of the outbreak, probably due to the control measures applied by the government.

  13. Global radiation damage at 300 and 260 K with dose rates approaching 1 MGy s{sup −1}

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Warkentin, Matthew; Badeau, Ryan; Hopkins, Jesse B. [Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853 (United States); Mulichak, Anne M.; Keefe, Lisa J. [Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL 60439 (United States); Thorne, Robert E., E-mail: ret6@cornell.edu [Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853 (United States)

    2012-02-01

    Approximately half of global radiation damage to thaumatin crystals can be outrun at 260 K if data are collected in less than 1 s. Global radiation damage to 19 thaumatin crystals has been measured using dose rates from 3 to 680 kGy s{sup −1}. At room temperature damage per unit dose appears to be roughly independent of dose rate, suggesting that the timescales for important damage processes are less than ∼1 s. However, at T = 260 K approximately half of the global damage manifested at dose rates of ∼10 kGy s{sup −1} can be outrun by collecting data at 680 kGy s{sup −1}. Appreciable sample-to-sample variability in global radiation sensitivity at fixed dose rate is observed. This variability cannot be accounted for by errors in dose calculation, crystal slippage or the size of the data sets in the assay.

  14. New Introductions, Spread of Existing Matrilines, and High Rates of Pyrethroid Resistance Result in Chronic Infestations of Bed Bugs (Cimex lectularius L. in Lower-Income Housing.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ronald W Raab

    Full Text Available Infestations of the common bed bug (Cimex lectularius L. have increased substantially in the United States in the past 10-15 years. The housing authority in Harrisonburg, Virginia, conducts heat-treatments after bed bugs are detected in a lower-income housing complex, by treating each infested unit at 60°C for 4-6 hours. However, a high frequency of recurrent infestations called into question the efficacy of this strategy. Genetic analysis using Bayesian clustering of polymorphic microsatellite loci from 123 bed bugs collected from 23 units from May 2012 to April 2013 in one building indicated that (a 16/21 (73% infestations were genetically similar, suggesting ineffective heat-treatments or reintroductions from within the building or from a common external source, followed by local spread of existing populations; and (b up to 5 of the infestations represented new genotypes, indicating that 5 new populations were introduced into this building in one year, assuming they were not missed in earlier screens. There was little to no gene flow among the 8 genetic clusters identified in the building. Bed bugs in the U.S. often possess one or both point mutations in the voltage-gated sodium channel, termed knockdown resistance (kdr, from valine to leucine (V419L and leucine to isoleucine (L925I that confer target-site resistance against pyrethroid insecticides. We found that 48/121 (40% bed bugs were homozygous for both kdr mutations (L419/I925, and a further 59% possessed at least one of the kdr mutations. We conclude that ineffective heat treatments, new introductions, reintroductions and local spread, and an exceptionally high frequency of pyrethroid resistance are responsible for chronic infestations in lower-income housing. Because heat treatments fail to protect from reintroductions, and pesticide use has not decreased the frequency of infestations, preventing new introductions and early detection are the most effective strategies to avoid bed bug

  15. How Is Mono Spread?

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... How Is Mono Spread? Print My sister has mononucleosis. I drank out of her drink before we ... that I have mono now? – Kyle* Mono, or mononucleosis, is spread through direct contact with saliva. This ...

  16. [Association between the decline in global fertility rate and the incorporation of women to the workforce].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stefanelli, María de Los Ángeles; Valenzuela, María Teresa; Cárcamo, Marcela; Urquidi, Cinthya; Cavada, Gabriel; San Martín P, Pamela

    2016-05-01

    The global fertility rate (GFR) is defined as the mean number of children that a woman could have in a hypothetical cohort, not exposed to death during the fertile period. GFR has fallen from 3.4 to 1.9 children per women in the period 1970-2010. To explore the relationship between the fall in GFR and the incorporation of women to work in the period 1960-2011. Data from the National Statistics Institute was used. GRF was calculated using specific fertility rates for each year considering women aged 15 to 49 years. Work rates were obtained from yearly vital statistics reports. Between 1960 and 2011, GRF decreased from 5.5 to 1.9 in Chile. The first inflection occurred in 1970. In the same period, female workforce increased from 22.4 to 40.2%. To motivate the participation of female work-force without decrease the GRF allowing population replacement, it is suggested the need to create new public policies with benefits and support from the state.

  17. Global Carrier Rates of Rare Inherited Disorders Using Population Exome Sequences.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kohei Fujikura

    Full Text Available Exome sequencing has revealed the causative mutations behind numerous rare, inherited disorders, but it is challenging to find reliable epidemiological values for rare disorders. Here, I provide a genetic epidemiology method to identify the causative mutations behind rare, inherited disorders using two population exome sequences (1000 Genomes and NHLBI. I created global maps of carrier rate distribution for 18 recessive disorders in 16 diverse ethnic populations. Out of a total of 161 mutations associated with 18 recessive disorders, I detected 24 mutations in either or both exome studies. The genetic mapping revealed strong international spatial heterogeneities in the carrier patterns of the inherited disorders. I next validated this methodology by statistically evaluating the carrier rate of one well-understood disorder, sickle cell anemia (SCA. The population exome-based epidemiology of SCA [African (allele frequency (AF = 0.0454, N = 2447, Asian (AF = 0, N = 286, European (AF = 0.000214, N = 4677, and Hispanic (AF = 0.0111, N = 362] was not significantly different from that obtained from a clinical prevalence survey. A pair-wise proportion test revealed no significant differences between the two exome projects in terms of AF (46/48 cases; P > 0.05. I conclude that population exome-based carrier rates can form the foundation for a prospectively maintained database of use to clinical geneticists. Similar modeling methods can be applied to many inherited disorders.

  18. Natural gas fugitive emissions rates constrained by global atmospheric methane and ethane.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwietzke, Stefan; Griffin, W Michael; Matthews, H Scott; Bruhwiler, Lori M P

    2014-07-15

    The amount of methane emissions released by the natural gas (NG) industry is a critical and uncertain value for various industry and policy decisions, such as for determining the climate implications of using NG over coal. Previous studies have estimated fugitive emissions rates (FER)--the fraction of produced NG (mainly methane and ethane) escaped to the atmosphere--between 1 and 9%. Most of these studies rely on few and outdated measurements, and some may represent only temporal/regional NG industry snapshots. This study estimates NG industry representative FER using global atmospheric methane and ethane measurements over three decades, and literature ranges of (i) tracer gas atmospheric lifetimes, (ii) non-NG source estimates, and (iii) fossil fuel fugitive gas hydrocarbon compositions. The modeling suggests an upper bound global average FER of 5% during 2006-2011, and a most likely FER of 2-4% since 2000, trending downward. These results do not account for highly uncertain natural hydrocarbon seepage, which could lower the FER. Further emissions reductions by the NG industry may be needed to ensure climate benefits over coal during the next few decades.

  19. Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    Andru?cã Maria Carmen

    2013-01-01

    The field of globalization has highlighted an interdependence implied by a more harmonious understanding determined by the daily interaction between nations through the inducement of peace and the management of streamlining and the effectiveness of the global economy. For the functioning of the globalization, the developing countries that can be helped by the developed ones must be involved. The international community can contribute to the institution of the development environment of the gl...

  20. Persistent fluctuations in synchronization rate in globally coupled oscillators with periodic external forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atsumi, Yu; Nakao, Hiroya

    2012-05-01

    A system of phase oscillators with repulsive global coupling and periodic external forcing undergoing asynchronous rotation is considered. The synchronization rate of the system can exhibit persistent fluctuations depending on parameters and initial phase distributions, and the amplitude of the fluctuations scales with the system size for uniformly random initial phase distributions. Using the Watanabe-Strogatz transformation that reduces the original system to low-dimensional macroscopic equations, we show that the fluctuations are collective dynamics of the system corresponding to low-dimensional trajectories of the reduced equations. It is argued that the amplitude of the fluctuations is determined by the inhomogeneity of the initial phase distribution, resulting in system-size scaling for the random case.

  1. Global existence of solutions to a tear film model with locally elevated evaporation rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Yuan; Ji, Hangjie; Liu, Jian-Guo; Witelski, Thomas P.

    2017-07-01

    Motivated by a model proposed by Peng et al. (2014) for break-up of tear films on human eyes, we study the dynamics of a generalized thin film model. The governing equations form a fourth-order coupled system of nonlinear parabolic PDEs for the film thickness and salt concentration subject to non-conservative effects representing evaporation. We analytically prove the global existence of solutions to this model with mobility exponents in several different ranges and present numerical simulations that are in agreement with the analytic results. We also numerically capture other interesting dynamics of the model, including finite-time rupture-shock phenomenon due to the instabilities caused by locally elevated evaporation rates, convergence to equilibrium and infinite-time thinning.

  2. A Globally Convergent Matrix-Free Method for Constrained Equations and Its Linear Convergence Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Min Sun

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A matrix-free method for constrained equations is proposed, which is a combination of the well-known PRP (Polak-Ribière-Polyak conjugate gradient method and the famous hyperplane projection method. The new method is not only derivative-free, but also completely matrix-free, and consequently, it can be applied to solve large-scale constrained equations. We obtain global convergence of the new method without any differentiability requirement on the constrained equations. Compared with the existing gradient methods for solving such problem, the new method possesses linear convergence rate under standard conditions, and a relax factor γ is attached in the update step to accelerate convergence. Preliminary numerical results show that it is promising in practice.

  3. The use of global rating scales for OSCEs in veterinary medicine.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emma K Read

    Full Text Available OSCEs (Objective Structured Clinical Examinations are widely used in health professions to assess clinical skills competence. Raters use standardized binary checklists (CL or multi-dimensional global rating scales (GRS to score candidates performing specific tasks. This study assessed the reliability of CL and GRS scores in the assessment of veterinary students, and is the first study to demonstrate the reliability of GRS within veterinary medical education. Twelve raters from two different schools (6 from University of Calgary [UCVM] and 6 from Royal (Dick School of Veterinary Studies [R(DSVS] were asked to score 12 students (6 from each school. All raters assessed all students (video recordings during 4 OSCE stations (bovine haltering, gowning and gloving, equine bandaging and skin suturing. Raters scored students using a CL, followed by the GRS. Novice raters (6 R(DSVS were assessed independently of expert raters (6 UCVM. Generalizability theory (G theory, analysis of variance (ANOVA and t-tests were used to determine the reliability of rater scores, assess any between school differences (by student, by rater, and determine if there were differences between CL and GRS scores. There was no significant difference in rater performance with use of the CL or the GRS. Scores from the CL were significantly higher than scores from the GRS. The reliability of checklist scores were .42 and .76 for novice and expert raters respectively. The reliability of the global rating scale scores were .7 and .86 for novice and expert raters respectively. A decision study (D-study showed that once trained using CL, GRS could be utilized to reliably score clinical skills in veterinary medicine with both novice and experienced raters.

  4. Combined Versus Detailed Evaluation Components in Medical Student Global Rating Indexes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kim L. Askew

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: To determine if there is any correlation between any of the 10 individual components of a global rating index on an emergency medicine (EM student clerkship evaluation form. If there is correlation, to determine if a weighted average of highly correlated components loses predictive value for the final clerkship grade. Methods: This study reviewed medical student evaluations collected over two years of a required fourth-year rotation in EM. Evaluation cards, comprised of a detailed 10-part evaluation, were completed after each shift. We used a correlation matrix between evaluation category average scores, using Spearman’s rho, to determine if there was any correlation of the grades between any of the 10 items on the evaluation form. Results: A total of 233 students completed the rotation over the two-year period of the study. There were strong correlations (>0.80 between assessment components of medical knowledge, history taking, physical exam, and differential diagnosis. There were also strong correlations between assessment components of team rapport, patient rapport, and motivation. When these highly correlated were combined to produce a four-component model, linear regression demonstrated similar predictive power in terms of final clerkship grade (R2 =0.71, CI95=0.65–0.77 and R2 =0.69, CI95=0.63–0.76 for the full and reduced models respectively. Conclusion: This study revealed that several components of the evaluation card had a high degree of correlation. Combining the correlated items, a reduced model containing four items (clinical skills, interpersonal skills, procedural skills, and documentation was as predictive of the student’s clinical grade as the full 10-item evaluation. Clerkship directors should be aware of the performance of their individual global rating scales when assessing medical student performance, especially if attempting to measure greater than four components.

  5. Initial spread of "1"3"7Cs from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant over the Japan continental shelf. A study using a high-resolution, global-coastal nested ocean model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lai, Z.; Chen, C.; Lin, H.; Shanghai Ocean Univ.; Beardsley, R.; Ji, R.; Shanghai Ocean Univ.; Sasaki, J.; Lin, J.

    2013-01-01

    The 11 March 2011 tsunami triggered by the M9 and M7.9 earthquakes off the Tohoku coast destroyed facilities at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP) leading to a significant long-term flow of the radionuclide "1"3"7Cs into coastal waters. A high-resolution, global-coastal nested ocean model was first constructed to simulate the 11 March tsunami and coastal inundation. Based on the model's success in reproducing the observed tsunami and coastal inundation, model experiments were then conducted with differing grid resolution to assess the initial spread of "1"3"7Cs over the eastern shelf of Japan. The "1"3"7Cs was tracked as a conservative tracer (without radioactive decay) in the three-dimensional model flow field over the period of 26 March-31 August 2011. The results clearly show that for the same "1"3"7Cs discharge, the model-predicted spreading of "1"3"7Cs was sensitive not only to model resolution but also the FNPP seawall structure. A coarse-resolution (∝2 km) model simulation led to an overestimation of lateral diffusion and thus faster dispersion of "1"3"7Cs from the coast to the deep ocean, while advective processes played a more significant role when the model resolution at and around the FNPP was refined to ∝5 m. By resolving the pathways from the leaking source to the southern and northern discharge canals, the high-resolution model better predicted the "1"3"7Cs spreading in the inner shelf where in situ measurements were made at 30 km off the coast. The overestimation of "1"3"7Cs concentration near the coast is thought to be due to the omission of sedimentation and biogeochemical processes as well as uncertainties in the amount of "1"3"7Cs leaking from the source in the model. As a result, a biogeochemical module should be included in the model for more realistic simulations of the fate and spreading of "1"3"7Cs in the ocean.

  6. Initial spread of {sup 137}Cs from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant over the Japan continental shelf. A study using a high-resolution, global-coastal nested ocean model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lai, Z. [Sun Yat-Sen Univ., Guangzhou (China). School of Marine Sciences; Univ. of Massachusetts-Dartmouth, New Bedford, MA (United States). School for Marine Science and Technology; Key Laboratory of Marine Resources and Coastal Engineering in Guangdong Province, Guangzhou (China); Chen, C.; Lin, H. [Univ. of Massachusetts-Dartmouth, New Bedford, MA (United States). School for Marine Science and Technology; Shanghai Ocean Univ. (China). International Center for Marine Studies; Beardsley, R. [Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA (United States). Dept. of Physical Oceanography; Ji, R. [Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA (United States). Dept. of Biology; Shanghai Ocean Univ. (China). International Center for Marine Studies; Sasaki, J. [The Univ. of Tokyo, Kashiwa (Japan). Dept. of Socio-Cultural Environmental Studies; Lin, J. [Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA (United States). Dept. of Geology and Geophysics

    2013-07-01

    The 11 March 2011 tsunami triggered by the M9 and M7.9 earthquakes off the Tohoku coast destroyed facilities at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP) leading to a significant long-term flow of the radionuclide {sup 137}Cs into coastal waters. A high-resolution, global-coastal nested ocean model was first constructed to simulate the 11 March tsunami and coastal inundation. Based on the model's success in reproducing the observed tsunami and coastal inundation, model experiments were then conducted with differing grid resolution to assess the initial spread of {sup 137}Cs over the eastern shelf of Japan. The {sup 137}Cs was tracked as a conservative tracer (without radioactive decay) in the three-dimensional model flow field over the period of 26 March-31 August 2011. The results clearly show that for the same {sup 137}Cs discharge, the model-predicted spreading of {sup 137}Cs was sensitive not only to model resolution but also the FNPP seawall structure. A coarse-resolution (∝2 km) model simulation led to an overestimation of lateral diffusion and thus faster dispersion of {sup 137}Cs from the coast to the deep ocean, while advective processes played a more significant role when the model resolution at and around the FNPP was refined to ∝5 m. By resolving the pathways from the leaking source to the southern and northern discharge canals, the high-resolution model better predicted the {sup 137}Cs spreading in the inner shelf where in situ measurements were made at 30 km off the coast. The overestimation of {sup 137}Cs concentration near the coast is thought to be due to the omission of sedimentation and biogeochemical processes as well as uncertainties in the amount of {sup 137}Cs leaking from the source in the model. As a result, a biogeochemical module should be included in the model for more realistic simulations of the fate and spreading of {sup 137}Cs in the ocean.

  7. New Measurements of Methyl Ethyl Ketone (MEK) Photolysis Rates and Their Relevance to Global Oxidative Capacity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brewer, J.; Ravishankara, A. R.; Mellouki, A.; Fischer, E. V.; Kukui, A.; Véronique, D.; Ait-helal, W.; Leglise, J.; Ren, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) is one of the most abundant ketones in the atmosphere. MEK can be emitted directly into the atmosphere from both anthropogenic and natural sources, and it is also formed during the gas-phase oxidation of volatile organic compounds (VOCs). MEK is lost via reaction with OH, photolysis and deposition to the surface. Similar to the other atmospheric ketones, the photolysis of MEK may represent a source of HOx (OH + HO2) radicals in the upper troposphere. The degradation of MEK also leads to the atmospheric formation of acetaldehyde and formaldehyde. This work presents a new analysis of the temperature dependence of MEK photolysis cross-sections and a quantification of MEK photolysis rates under surface pressures using the CNRS HELIOS outdoor atmospheric chamber (Chambre de simulation atmosphérique à irradiation naturelle d'Orléans; http://www.era-orleans.org/ERA-TOOLS/helios-project.html). Additionally, we use the GEOS-Chem 3-D CTM (version 10-01, www.geos-chem.org) to investigate the impact of these newly measured rates and cross-sections on the global distribution and seasonality of MEK, as well as its importance to the tropospheric oxidative capacity.

  8. Association between Global Life Satisfaction and Self-Rated Oral Health Conditions among Adolescents in Lithuania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kavaliauskienė, Aistė; Šidlauskas, Antanas; Zaborskis, Apolinaras

    2017-11-03

    Background : This study aims to explore the extent to which the perceived oral conditions predict adolescent global life satisfaction (GLS); Methods : The sample in a cross-sectional survey consisted of 1510 Lithuanian adolescents (41.7% boys) aged 11-18. The survey was conducted by means of self-report questionnaires that were administrated in school classrooms ensuring confidentiality and anonymity of the participants. The schoolchildren rated their GLS and answered the questions about perceptions of their oral health. The relationship between GLS and oral health variables was estimated using unadjusted and adjusted binary logistic regression and nonparametric correlation analyses; Results : The research showed that the majority of adolescents rated their GLS highly; however, girls, older adolescents and adolescents from less affluent families were less likely to report high scores. GLS was significantly associated with subjective overall oral health assessment. The odds of reporting low GLS were 50% higher for adolescents with good oral health (OR = 1.51; p Child Perceptions Questionnaire (.

  9. Global spread and genetic variants of the two CYP9M10 haplotype forms associated with insecticide resistance in Culex quinquefasciatus Say.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Itokawa, K; Komagata, O; Kasai, S; Kawada, H; Mwatele, C; Dida, G O; Njenga, S M; Mwandawiro, C; Tomita, T

    2013-09-01

    Insecticide resistance develops as a genetic factor (allele) conferring lower susceptibility to insecticides proliferates within a target insect population under strong positive selection. Intriguingly, a resistance allele pre-existing in a population often bears a series of further adaptive allelic variants through new mutations. This phenomenon occasionally results in replacement of the predominating resistance allele by fitter new derivatives, and consequently, development of greater resistance at the population level. The overexpression of the cytochrome P450 gene CYP9M10 is associated with pyrethroid resistance in the southern house mosquito Culex quinquefasciatus. Previously, we have found two genealogically related overexpressing CYP9M10 haplotypes, which differ in gene copy number (duplicated and non-duplicated). The duplicated haplotype was derived from the non-duplicated overproducer probably recently. In the present study, we investigated allelic series of CYP9M10 involved in three C. quinquefasciatus laboratory colonies recently collected from three different localities. Duplicated and non-duplicated overproducing haplotypes coexisted in African and Asian colonies indicating a global distribution of both haplotype lineages. The duplicated haplotypes both in the Asian and African colonies were associated with higher expression levels and stronger resistance than non-duplicated overproducing haplotypes. There were slight variation in expression level among the non-duplicated overproducing haplotypes. The nucleotide sequences in coding and upstream regions among members of this group also showed a little diversity. Non-duplicated overproducing haplotypes with relatively higher expression were genealogically closer to the duplicated haplotypes than the other non-duplicated overproducing haplotypes, suggesting multiple cis-acting mutations before duplication.

  10. A framework for predicting global silicate weathering and CO2 drawdown rates over geologic time-scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilley, George E; Porder, Stephen

    2008-11-04

    Global silicate weathering drives long-time-scale fluctuations in atmospheric CO(2). While tectonics, climate, and rock-type influence silicate weathering, it is unclear how these factors combine to drive global rates. Here, we explore whether local erosion rates, GCM-derived dust fluxes, temperature, and water balance can capture global variation in silicate weathering. Our spatially explicit approach predicts 1.9-4.6 x 10(13) mols of Si weathered globally per year, within a factor of 4-10 of estimates of global silicate fluxes derived from riverine measurements. Similarly, our watershed-based estimates are within a factor of 4-18 (mean of 5.3) of the silica fluxes measured in the world's ten largest rivers. Eighty percent of total global silicate weathering product traveling as dissolved load occurs within a narrow range (0.01-0.5 mm/year) of erosion rates. Assuming each mol of Mg or Ca reacts with 1 mol of CO(2), 1.5-3.3 x 10(8) tons/year of CO(2) is consumed by silicate weathering, consistent with previously published estimates. Approximately 50% of this drawdown occurs in the world's active mountain belts, emphasizing the importance of tectonic regulation of global climate over geologic timescales.

  11. An Efficient Approximation of the Coronal Heating Rate for use in Global Sun-Heliosphere Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cranmer, Steven R.

    2010-02-01

    The origins of the hot solar corona and the supersonically expanding solar wind are still the subject of debate. A key obstacle in the way of producing realistic simulations of the Sun-heliosphere system is the lack of a physically motivated way of specifying the coronal heating rate. Recent one-dimensional models have been found to reproduce many observed features of the solar wind by assuming the energy comes from Alfvén waves that are partially reflected, then dissipated by magnetohydrodynamic turbulence. However, the nonlocal physics of wave reflection has made it difficult to apply these processes to more sophisticated (three-dimensional) models. This paper presents a set of robust approximations to the solutions of the linear Alfvén wave reflection equations. A key ingredient of the turbulent heating rate is the ratio of inward-to-outward wave power, and the approximations developed here allow this to be written explicitly in terms of local plasma properties at any given location. The coronal heating also depends on the frequency spectrum of Alfvén waves in the open-field corona, which has not yet been measured directly. A model-based assumption is used here for the spectrum, but the results of future measurements can be incorporated easily. The resulting expression for the coronal heating rate is self-contained, computationally efficient, and applicable directly to global models of the corona and heliosphere. This paper tests and validates the approximations by comparing the results to exact solutions of the wave transport equations in several cases relevant to the fast and slow solar wind.

  12. Timing of cochlear implantation and parents' global ratings of children's health and development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, James H; Wang, Nae-Yuh; Riley, Anne W; Carson, Christine M; Meserole, Rachel L; Lin, Frank R; Eisenberg, Laurie S; Tobey, Emily A; Quittner, Alexandra L; Francis, Howard W; Niparko, John K

    2012-06-01

    To assess children's health-related quality of life (HRQL) and development after cochlear implant (CI) surgery and compare improvements between different age of implantation categories. Prospective, longitudinal study comparing outcomes of deaf children post-CI with hearing controls. Six US CI centers. Deaf children who received CI (n = 188) and hearing children of comparable ages (n = 97). CI before 5 years of age. Parental ratings of global HRQL and development, as assessed over the first 4 years of follow-up using visual analog scales. Development scores assess parental views of children's growth and development, motor skills, ability to express themselves and communicate with others, and learning abilities. Associations of baseline child and family characteristics with post-CI HRQL and development were investigated using multivariable analysis, controlling for factors that influence post-CI language learning. Baseline deficits of CI candidates relative to hearing controls were larger in development than HRQL. Development scores improved significantly by 4 years after CI, particularly in the youngest CI recipients. Developmental deficits of older CI recipients with early, extended hearing aid use were only partially remediated by CI. Overall, no significant health deficits were observed in CI children after 4 years. Cognition and speech recognition were positively associated with both HRQL and development. Parental perspectives on quality of their child's life and development provide practical insight into the optimal timing of interventions for early-onset deafness. Validity of parental global assessments is supported by clinical measures of speech perception and language learning and comparison with a well-validated health status instrument.

  13. On entanglement spreading from holography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mezei, Márk [Princeton Center for Theoretical Science, Princeton University,Princeton, NJ 08544 (United States)

    2017-05-11

    A global quench is an interesting setting where we can study thermalization of subsystems in a pure state. We investigate entanglement entropy (EE) growth in global quenches in holographic field theories and relate some of its aspects to quantities characterizing chaos. More specifically we obtain four key results: We prove holographic bounds on the entanglement velocity v{sub E} and the butterfly effect speed v{sub B} that arises in the study of chaos. We obtain the EE as a function of time for large spherical entangling surfaces analytically. We show that the EE is insensitive to the details of the initial state or quench protocol. In a thermofield double state we determine analytically the two-sided mutual information between two large concentric spheres separated in time. We derive a bound on the rate of growth of EE for arbitrary shapes, and develop an expansion for EE at early times. In a companion paper https://arxiv.org/abs/1608.05101, these results are put in the broader context of EE growth in chaotic systems: we relate EE growth to the chaotic spreading of operators, derive bounds on EE at a given time, and compare the holographic results to spin chain numerics and toy models. In this paper, we perform holographic calculations that provide the basis of arguments presented in that paper. We prove holographic bounds on the entanglement velocity v{sub E} and the butterfly effect speed v{sub B} that arises in the study of chaos. We obtain the EE as a function of time for large spherical entangling surfaces analytically. We show that the EE is insensitive to the details of the initial state or quench protocol. In a thermofield double state we determine analytically the two-sided mutual information between two large concentric spheres separated in time. We derive a bound on the rate of growth of EE for arbitrary shapes, and develop an expansion for EE at early times.

  14. The endoscopy Global Rating Scale – Canada: Development and implementation of a quality improvement tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacIntosh, Donald; Dubé, Catherine; Hollingworth, Roger; van Zanten, Sander Veldhuyzen; Daniels, Sandra; Ghattas, George

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Increasing use of gastrointestinal endoscopy, particularly for colorectal cancer screening, and increasing emphasis on health care quality highlight the need for endoscopy facilities to review the quality of the service they offer. OBJECTIVE: To adapt the United Kingdom Global Rating Scale (UK-GRS) to develop a web-based and patient-centred tool to assess and improve the quality of endoscopy services provided. METHODS: Based on feedback from 22 sites across Canada that completed the UK endoscopy GRS, and integrating results of the Canadian consensus on safety and quality indicators in endoscopy and other Canadian consensus reports, a working group of endoscopists experienced with the GRS developed the GRS-Canada (GRS-C). RESULTS: The GRS-C mirrors the two dimensions (clinical quality and quality of the patient experience) and 12 patient-centred items of the UK-GRS, but was modified to apply to Canadian health care infrastructure, language and current practice. Each item is assessed by a yes/no response to eight to 12 statements that are divided into levels graded D (basic) through A (advanced). A core team consisting of a booking clerk, charge nurse and the physician responsible for the unit is recommended to complete the GRS-C twice yearly. CONCLUSION: The GRS-C is intended to improve endoscopic services in Canada by providing endoscopy units with a straightforward process to review the quality of the service they provide. PMID:23472242

  15. The endoscopy Global Rating Scale-Canada: development and implementation of a quality improvement tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacIntosh, Donald; Dubé, Catherine; Hollingworth, Roger; Veldhuyzen van Zanten, Sander; Daniels, Sandra; Ghattas, George

    2013-02-01

    Increasing use of gastrointestinal endoscopy, particularly for colorectal cancer screening, and increasing emphasis on health care quality highlight the need for endoscopy facilities to review the quality of the service they offer. To adapt the United Kingdom Global Rating Scale (UK-GRS) to develop a web-based and patient-centred tool to assess and improve the quality of endoscopy services provided. Based on feedback from 22 sites across Canada that completed the UK endoscopy GRS, and integrating results of the Canadian consensus on safety and quality indicators in endoscopy and other Canadian consensus reports, a working group of endoscopists experienced with the GRS developed the GRS-Canada (GRS-C). The GRS-C mirrors the two dimensions (clinical quality and quality of the patient experience) and 12 patient-centred items of the UK-GRS, but was modified to apply to Canadian health care infrastructure, language and current practice. Each item is assessed by a yes⁄no response to eight to 12 statements that are divided into levels graded D (basic) through A (advanced). A core team consisting of a booking clerk, charge nurse and the physician responsible for the unit is recommended to complete the GRS-C twice yearly. The GRS-C is intended to improve endoscopic services in Canada by providing endoscopy units with a straightforward process to review the quality of the service they provide.

  16. Globalization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Plum, Maja

    Globalization is often referred to as external to education - a state of affair facing the modern curriculum with numerous challenges. In this paper it is examined as internal to curriculum; analysed as a problematization in a Foucaultian sense. That is, as a complex of attentions, worries, ways...... of reasoning, producing curricular variables. The analysis is made through an example of early childhood curriculum in Danish Pre-school, and the way the curricular variable of the pre-school child comes into being through globalization as a problematization, carried forth by the comparative practices of PISA...

  17. Impact of Exchange Rate Movements, Global Economic Activity, and the BDI Volatility on Loaded Port Cargo Throughput in South Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chang Beom Kim

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the effects of exchange rate movements, global economic activity, and the volatility of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI on South Korea's loaded port cargo throughput, based on monthly data for the period from January 2000 to October 2014. The results indicate that the BDI volatility has a negative effect on the loaded cargo throughput, while increases in the nominal exchange rate and in global economy activity have a positive effect. In addition, the error correction model results show that the error correction term is statistically significant with the negative sign.

  18. The freezer defrosting: global warming and litter decomposition rates in cold biomes. Essay review.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aerts, R.

    2006-01-01

    1 Decomposition of plant litter, a key component of the global carbon budget, is hierarchically controlled by the triad: climate > litter quality > soil organisms. Given the sensitivity of decomposition to temperature, especially in cold biomes, it has been hypothesized that global warming will lead

  19. Global and regional annual brain volume loss rates in physiological aging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schippling, Sven; Ostwaldt, Ann-Christin; Suppa, Per; Spies, Lothar; Manogaran, Praveena; Gocke, Carola; Huppertz, Hans-Jürgen; Opfer, Roland

    2017-03-01

    The objective is to estimate average global and regional percentage brain volume loss per year (BVL/year) of the physiologically ageing brain. Two independent, cross-sectional single scanner cohorts of healthy subjects were included. The first cohort (n = 248) was acquired at the Medical Prevention Center (MPCH) in Hamburg, Germany. The second cohort (n = 316) was taken from the Open Access Series of Imaging Studies (OASIS). Brain parenchyma (BP), grey matter (GM), white matter (WM), corpus callosum (CC), and thalamus volumes were calculated. A non-parametric technique was applied to fit the resulting age-volume data. For each age, the BVL/year was derived from the age-volume curves. The resulting BVL/year curves were compared between the two cohorts. For the MPCH cohort, the BVL/year curve of the BP was an increasing function starting from 0.20% at the age of 35 years increasing to 0.52% at 70 years (corresponding values for GM ranged from 0.32 to 0.55%, WM from 0.02 to 0.47%, CC from 0.07 to 0.48%, and thalamus from 0.25 to 0.54%). Mean absolute difference between BVL/year trajectories across the age range of 35-70 years was 0.02% for BP, 0.04% for GM, 0.04% for WM, 0.11% for CC, and 0.02% for the thalamus. Physiological BVL/year rates were remarkably consistent between the two cohorts and independent from the scanner applied. Average BVL/year was clearly age and compartment dependent. These results need to be taken into account when defining cut-off values for pathological annual brain volume loss in disease models, such as multiple sclerosis.

  20. Source Anonymity in WSNs against Global Adversary Utilizing Low Transmission Rates with Delay Constraints

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anas Bushnag

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Wireless sensor networks (WSN are deployed for many applications such as tracking and monitoring of endangered species, military applications, etc. which require anonymity of the origin, known as Source Location Privacy (SLP. The aim in SLP is to prevent unauthorized observers from tracing the source of a real event by analyzing the traffic in the network. Previous approaches to SLP such as Fortified Anonymous Communication Protocol (FACP employ transmission of real or fake packets in every time slot, which is inefficient. To overcome this shortcoming, we developed three different techniques presented in this paper. Dummy Uniform Distribution (DUD, Dummy Adaptive Distribution (DAD and Controlled Dummy Adaptive Distribution (CAD were developed to overcome the anonymity problem against a global adversary (which has the capability of analyzing and monitoring the entire network. Most of the current techniques try to prevent the adversary from perceiving the location and time of the real event whereas our proposed techniques confuse the adversary about the existence of the real event by introducing low rate fake messages, which subsequently lead to location and time privacy. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed techniques provide reasonable delivery ratio, delay, and overhead of a real event's packets while keeping a high level of anonymity. Three different analysis models are conducted to verify the performance of our techniques. A visualization of the simulation data is performed to confirm anonymity. Further, neural network models are developed to ensure that the introduced techniques preserve SLP. Finally, a steganography model based on probability is implemented to prove the anonymity of the techniques.

  1. Global parameter optimization for maximizing radioisotope detection probabilities at fixed false alarm rates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Portnoy, David, E-mail: david.portnoy@jhuapl.edu [Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, 11100 Johns Hopkins Road, Laurel, MD 20723 (United States); Feuerbach, Robert; Heimberg, Jennifer [Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, 11100 Johns Hopkins Road, Laurel, MD 20723 (United States)

    2011-10-01

    Today there is a tremendous amount of interest in systems that can detect radiological or nuclear threats. Many of these systems operate in extremely high throughput situations where delays caused by false alarms can have a significant negative impact. Thus, calculating the tradeoff between detection rates and false alarm rates is critical for their successful operation. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves have long been used to depict this tradeoff. The methodology was first developed in the field of signal detection. In recent years it has been used increasingly in machine learning and data mining applications. It follows that this methodology could be applied to radiological/nuclear threat detection systems. However many of these systems do not fit into the classic principles of statistical detection theory because they tend to lack tractable likelihood functions and have many parameters, which, in general, do not have a one-to-one correspondence with the detection classes. This work proposes a strategy to overcome these problems by empirically finding parameter values that maximize the probability of detection for a selected number of probabilities of false alarm. To find these parameter values a statistical global optimization technique that seeks to estimate portions of a ROC curve is proposed. The optimization combines elements of simulated annealing with elements of genetic algorithms. Genetic algorithms were chosen because they can reduce the risk of getting stuck in local minima. However classic genetic algorithms operate on arrays of Booleans values or bit strings, so simulated annealing is employed to perform mutation in the genetic algorithm. The presented initial results were generated using an isotope identification algorithm developed at Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory. The algorithm has 12 parameters: 4 real-valued and 8 Boolean. A simulated dataset was used for the optimization study; the 'threat' set of

  2. Global parameter optimization for maximizing radioisotope detection probabilities at fixed false alarm rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Portnoy, David; Feuerbach, Robert; Heimberg, Jennifer

    2011-01-01

    Today there is a tremendous amount of interest in systems that can detect radiological or nuclear threats. Many of these systems operate in extremely high throughput situations where delays caused by false alarms can have a significant negative impact. Thus, calculating the tradeoff between detection rates and false alarm rates is critical for their successful operation. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves have long been used to depict this tradeoff. The methodology was first developed in the field of signal detection. In recent years it has been used increasingly in machine learning and data mining applications. It follows that this methodology could be applied to radiological/nuclear threat detection systems. However many of these systems do not fit into the classic principles of statistical detection theory because they tend to lack tractable likelihood functions and have many parameters, which, in general, do not have a one-to-one correspondence with the detection classes. This work proposes a strategy to overcome these problems by empirically finding parameter values that maximize the probability of detection for a selected number of probabilities of false alarm. To find these parameter values a statistical global optimization technique that seeks to estimate portions of a ROC curve is proposed. The optimization combines elements of simulated annealing with elements of genetic algorithms. Genetic algorithms were chosen because they can reduce the risk of getting stuck in local minima. However classic genetic algorithms operate on arrays of Booleans values or bit strings, so simulated annealing is employed to perform mutation in the genetic algorithm. The presented initial results were generated using an isotope identification algorithm developed at Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory. The algorithm has 12 parameters: 4 real-valued and 8 Boolean. A simulated dataset was used for the optimization study; the 'threat' set of spectra

  3. Magma addition rates in continental arcs: New methods of calculation and global implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ratschbacher, B. C.; Paterson, S. R.

    2017-12-01

    The transport of mass, heat and geochemical constituents (elements and volatiles) from the mantle to the atmosphere occurs via magma addition to the lithosphere. Calculation of magma addition rates (MARs) in continental arcs based on exposed proportions of igneous arc rocks is complex and rarely consistently determined. Multiple factors influence MAR calculations such as crust versus mantle contributions to magmas, a change in MARs across the arc and with depths throughout the arc crustal column, `arc tempos' with periods of high and low magmatic activity, the loss of previous emplaced arc rocks by subsequent magmatism and return to the mantle, arc migration, variations in the intrusive versus extrusive additions and evolving arc widths and thicknesses during tectonism. All of these factors need to be considered when calculating MARs.This study makes a new attempt to calculate MARs in continental arcs by studying three arc sections: the Famatinian arc, Argentina, the Sierra Nevada batholith, California and the Coast Mountain batholith, Washington and British Columbia. Arcs are divided into fore-arc, main arc and back arc sections and `boxes' with a defined width, length and thickness spanning upper middle and lower crustal levels are assigned to each section. Representative exposed crustal slices for each depth are then used to calculate MARs based on outcrop proportions for each box. Geochemical data is used to infer crustal recycling percentages and total thickness of the arc. Preliminary results show a correlation between MARs, crustal thicknesses and magmatic flare-up durations. For instance, the Famatinian arc shows a strong decrease in MARs between the main arc section (9.4 km3/Ma/arc-km) and the fore-arc (0.61 km3/Ma/arc-km) and back-arc (1.52 km3/Ma/arc-km) regions and an increase in the amount of magmatism with depth.Global MARs over geologic timescales have the potential to investigate mantle melt generation rates and the volatile outgassing contribution

  4. Global parameter optimization for maximizing radioisotope detection probabilities at fixed false alarm rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Portnoy, David; Feuerbach, Robert; Heimberg, Jennifer

    2011-10-01

    Today there is a tremendous amount of interest in systems that can detect radiological or nuclear threats. Many of these systems operate in extremely high throughput situations where delays caused by false alarms can have a significant negative impact. Thus, calculating the tradeoff between detection rates and false alarm rates is critical for their successful operation. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves have long been used to depict this tradeoff. The methodology was first developed in the field of signal detection. In recent years it has been used increasingly in machine learning and data mining applications. It follows that this methodology could be applied to radiological/nuclear threat detection systems. However many of these systems do not fit into the classic principles of statistical detection theory because they tend to lack tractable likelihood functions and have many parameters, which, in general, do not have a one-to-one correspondence with the detection classes. This work proposes a strategy to overcome these problems by empirically finding parameter values that maximize the probability of detection for a selected number of probabilities of false alarm. To find these parameter values a statistical global optimization technique that seeks to estimate portions of a ROC curve is proposed. The optimization combines elements of simulated annealing with elements of genetic algorithms. Genetic algorithms were chosen because they can reduce the risk of getting stuck in local minima. However classic genetic algorithms operate on arrays of Booleans values or bit strings, so simulated annealing is employed to perform mutation in the genetic algorithm. The presented initial results were generated using an isotope identification algorithm developed at Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory. The algorithm has 12 parameters: 4 real-valued and 8 Boolean. A simulated dataset was used for the optimization study; the "threat" set of spectra

  5. The spreading of "global state" in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia Aparecida Guarnieri Ortigoza

    2000-12-01

    Full Text Available Assiste-se cada vez mais à entrada de grandes redes de comércio integradas ao sistema de franquias no território brasileiro, o fast food tem se destacado pelo seu adiantado estágio de evoluçào no sentido de formatação e padronização das operações. O fast food é um sistem a capaz de criar imagens e códigos decifráveis por grupos, sugerindo e encadeando comportamentos, provocando de certa forma uma homogeneização do gosto em nível mundial. O horário dedicado às refeições é escasso e o fast food entra nessa conjuntura de um "novo tempo" no urbano. Essas alterações nas relações de produção nâo se dáo bruscamente, ao contrário, são reproduzidas através de inovações graduais e de maneira sutil, somente quando atingem um grau de amadurecimento é que essas mesmas relações perm item as mudanças. O fast food é um sistema de massa que atinge um mercado maior, passando por cima de costumes e tradições. O papel da mídia é muito importante nesse processo pois invade o cotidiano, num jogo de símbolos e signos, com significados pré-determinados. É pelo "lugar" que o "mundial" é empíricamente percebido. Nessa dinâmica, a homogeneização e a diferenciação ocorrem paralelamente

  6. Global spread and control of avian influenza

    Science.gov (United States)

    H5 and H7 high pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) viruses emerge from the mutation of H5 and H7 low pathogenicity avian influenza viruses (LPAI) after circulation in terrestrial poultry for a few weeks to years. There have been 42 distinct HPAI epizootics since 1959. The largest being the H5N1 A/G...

  7. Tempo of Diversification of Global Amphibians: One-Constant Rate, One-Continuous Shift or Multiple-Discrete Shifts?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Youhua Chen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In this brief report, alternative time-varying diversification rate models were fitted onto the phylogeny of global amphibians by considering one-constant-rate (OCR, one-continuous-shift (OCS and multiplediscrete- shifts (MDS situations. The OCS diversification model was rejected by γ statistic (γ=-5.556, p⁄ 0.001, implying the existence of shifting diversification rates for global amphibian phylogeny. Through model selection, MDS diversification model outperformed OCS and OCR models using “laser” package under R environment. Moreover, MDS models, implemented using another R package “MEDUSA”, indicated that there were sixteen shifts over the internal nodes for amphibian phylogeny. Conclusively, both OCS and MDS models are recommended to compare so as to better quantify rate-shifting trends of species diversification. MDS diversification models should be preferential for large phylogenies using “MEDUSA” package in which any arbitrary numbers of shifts are allowed to model.

  8. Epidemic spreading on interconnected networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saumell-Mendiola, Anna; Serrano, M Ángeles; Boguñá, Marián

    2012-08-01

    Many real networks are not isolated from each other but form networks of networks, often interrelated in nontrivial ways. Here, we analyze an epidemic spreading process taking place on top of two interconnected complex networks. We develop a heterogeneous mean-field approach that allows us to calculate the conditions for the emergence of an endemic state. Interestingly, a global endemic state may arise in the coupled system even though the epidemics is not able to propagate on each network separately and even when the number of coupling connections is small. Our analytic results are successfully confronted against large-scale numerical simulations.

  9. Overall scores as an alternative to global ratings in patient experience surveys : A comparison of four methods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krol, M.W.; de Boer, D.; Rademakers, J.J.D.J.M.; Delnoij, D.

    2013-01-01

    Background Global ratings of healthcare by patients are a popular way of summarizing patients’ experiences. Summary scores can be used for comparing healthcare provider performance and provider rankings. As an alternative, overall scores from actual patient experiences can be constructed as summary

  10. Reduce growth rate of light-duty vehicle travel to meet 2050 global climate goals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sager, Jalel; Apte, Joshua S; Lemoine, Derek M; Kammen, Daniel M, E-mail: jalel.sager@berkeley.edu, E-mail: japte@berkeley.edu, E-mail: dlemoine@berkeley.edu, E-mail: daniel.kammen@gmail.com [Energy and Resources Group, University of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2011-04-15

    Strong policies to constrain increasing global use of light-duty vehicles (cars and light trucks) should complement fuel efficiency and carbon intensity improvements in order to meet international greenhouse gas emission and climate targets for the year 2050.

  11. Spread effects - methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    Diffusion of technology, environmental effects and rebound effects are the principal effects from the funding of renewable energy and energy economising. It is difficult to estimate the impact of the spread effects both prior to the measures are implemented and after the measures are carried out. Statistical methods can be used to estimate the spread effects, but they are insecure and always need to be complemented with qualitative and subjective evaluations. It is more adequate to evaluate potential spread effects from market and market data surveillance for a selection of technologies and parties. Based on this information qualitative indicators for spread effects can be constructed and used both ex ante and ex post (ml)

  12. The VULCANO spreading programme

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cognet, G.; Laffont, G.; Jegou, C.; Journeau, C.; Sudreau, F.; Pierre, J.; Ramacciotti, M. [CEA (Atomic Energy Commission), DRN/DER - Bat. 212, CEA Cadarache, 13108 St. Paul Lez Durance (France)

    1999-07-01

    Among the currently studied core-catcher projects, some of them suppose corium spreading before cooling, in particular the EPR (European Pressurized Reactor) core-catcher concept is based on mixing the corium with a special concrete, spreading the molten mixture on a large multi-layer surface cooled from the bottom and subsequently cooling by flooding with water. Therefore, melt spreading deserves intensive investigation in order to determine and quantify key phenomena which govern the stopping of spreading. In France, for some years, the Nuclear Reactor Division of the Atomic Energy Commission (CEA/DRN) has undertaken a large program to improve knowledge on corium behaviour and coolability. This program is based on experimental and theoretical investigations which are finally gathered in scenario and mechanistic computer codes. In this framework, the real material experimental programme, VULCANO, conducted within an European frame, is currently devoted to the study of corium spreading. In 1997 and 1998, several tests have been performed on dry corium spreading with various composition of melts. Although all the observed phenomena, in particular the differences between simulant and real material melts have not been yet totally explained, these tests have already provided a lot of information about: The behaviour of complex mixtures including refractory oxides, silica, iron oxides and in one case iron metal; Spreading progression, which was never stopped in any of these tests by a crust formation at the front; The structure of spread melts (porosity, crusts,...); Physico-chemical interaction between melt and the refractory substratum which was composed of zirconia bricks. (authors)

  13. The VULCANO spreading programme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cognet, G.; Laffont, G.; Jegou, C.; Journeau, C.; Sudreau, F.; Pierre, J.; Ramacciotti, M.

    1999-01-01

    Among the currently studied core-catcher projects, some of them suppose corium spreading before cooling, in particular the EPR (European Pressurized Reactor) core-catcher concept is based on mixing the corium with a special concrete, spreading the molten mixture on a large multi-layer surface cooled from the bottom and subsequently cooling by flooding with water. Therefore, melt spreading deserves intensive investigation in order to determine and quantify key phenomena which govern the stopping of spreading. In France, for some years, the Nuclear Reactor Division of the Atomic Energy Commission (CEA/DRN) has undertaken a large program to improve knowledge on corium behaviour and coolability. This program is based on experimental and theoretical investigations which are finally gathered in scenario and mechanistic computer codes. In this framework, the real material experimental programme, VULCANO, conducted within an European frame, is currently devoted to the study of corium spreading. In 1997 and 1998, several tests have been performed on dry corium spreading with various composition of melts. Although all the observed phenomena, in particular the differences between simulant and real material melts have not been yet totally explained, these tests have already provided a lot of information about: The behaviour of complex mixtures including refractory oxides, silica, iron oxides and in one case iron metal; Spreading progression, which was never stopped in any of these tests by a crust formation at the front; The structure of spread melts (porosity, crusts,...); Physico-chemical interaction between melt and the refractory substratum which was composed of zirconia bricks. (authors)

  14. Plume spread and atmospheric stability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weber, R O [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

    1999-08-01

    The horizontal spread of a plume in atmospheric dispersion can be described by the standard deviation of horizontal direction. The widely used Pasquill-Gifford classes of atmospheric stability have assigned typical values of the standard deviation of horizontal wind direction and of the lapse rate. A measured lapse rate can thus be used to estimate the standard deviation of wind direction. It is examined by means of a large dataset of fast wind measurements how good these estimates are. (author) 1 fig., 2 refs.

  15. Two-dimensional structure of the MAAS-Global rating list for consultation skills of doctors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Es, Judy M.; Schrijver, Charles J. W.; Oberink, Riëtta H. H.; Visser, Mechteld R. M.

    2012-01-01

    Background: The MAAS-Global (MG) is widely used to assess doctor-patient communication skills. Reliability and validity have been investigated, but little is known about its dimensionality. Assuming physicians tend to adopt certain styles or preferences in their communication with patients, a

  16. Global negative vegetation feedback to climate warming responses of leaf litter decomposition rates in cold biomes.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cornelissen, J.H.C.; van Bodegom, P.M.; Aerts, R.; Gallaghan, T.V.; van Logtestijn, R.S.P; Alatalo, J.; Chapin, F.S. III; Gerdol, R.; Gudmundsson, J.; Gwynn-Jones, D.; Hartley, A.E.; Hik, D.S.; Hofgaard, A.; Jonsdottir, I.S.; Karlsson, S.; Klein, J.A.; Laundre, J.; Magnusson, B.; Michelsel, A.; Molau, U.; Onipchenko, V.G.; Quested, H.M.; Sandvik, S.M.; Schmidt, I.K.; Shaver, G.R.; Solhleim, B.; Soudzilovskaia, N.A.; Stenstrom, A.; Tolvanen, A.; Totland, O.; Wada, N.; Welker, J.M.; Zhao, X.; Team, M.O.L.

    2007-01-01

    Whether climate change will turn cold biomes from large long-term carbon sinks into sources is hotly debated because of the great potential for ecosystem-mediated feedbacks to global climate. Critical are the direction, magnitude and generality of climate responses of plant litter decomposition.

  17. The Correlation of Human Development Index on Fertility and Mortality Rate: a Global Ecological Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amir Almasi-Hashiani

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundSeveral studies have examined the relationship between Human Development Index (HDI and various health outcomes. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between HDI, and infant mortality rate, mortality rate of children under one year and under 5 years, maternal mortality rate, and total fertility rate.Materials and MethodsIn this ecologic study, data on HDI, total fertility rate (TFR, maternal mortality rate (MMR, neonatal mortality rate (NMR, infant mortality rate (IMR and mortality rate in children under 5 years of age (< 5MR, were extracted from 188 countries in 2014 in the world. The data required in this study was obtained from the World Bank. Data analysis was performed using Pearson correlation in Stata version 12.0 software. ResultsIn this study, a negative significant correlation was observed between HDI and IMR (r = -0.878, P = 0.001, NMR (r = -0.870, 95% CI: -0.902, -0.828, P = 0.001, ConclusionIMR, children under one year old and under 5 years, and MMR mostly occur in developing countries. There was a correlation between HDI and its components, and the neonatal, infants, children under 5 years, maternal mortality rate and total fertility. The average annual percentage change of HDI also had a correlation with neonatal, infants, children under 5- year mortality rate, total fertility and maternal deaths.

  18. Reductions in soil surface albedo as a function of biochar application rate: implications for global radiative forcing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verheijen, Frank G A; Bastos, Ana Catarina; Keizer, Jan Jacob; Jeffery, Simon; Van der Velde, Marijn; Penížek, Vít; Beland, Martin

    2013-01-01

    Biochar can be defined as pyrolysed (charred) biomass produced for application to soils with the aim of mitigating global climate change while improving soil functions. Sustainable biochar application to soils has been estimated to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by 71–130 Pg CO 2 -C e over 100 years, indicating an important potential to mitigate climate change. However, these estimates ignored changes in soil surface reflection by the application of dark-coloured biochar. Through a laboratory experiment we show a strong tendency for soil surface albedo to decrease as a power decay function with increasing biochar application rate, depending on soil moisture content, biochar application method and land use. Surface application of biochar resulted in strong reductions in soil surface albedo even at relatively low application rates. As a first assessment of the implications for climate change mitigation of these biochar–albedo relationships, we applied a first order global energy balance model to compare negative radiative forcings (from avoided CO 2 emissions) with positive radiative forcings (from reduced soil surface albedos). For a global-scale biochar application equivalent to 120 t ha −1 , we obtained reductions in negative radiative forcings of 5 and 11% for croplands and 11 and 23% for grasslands, when incorporating biochar into the topsoil or applying it to the soil surface, respectively. For a lower global biochar application rate (equivalent to 10 t ha −1 ), these reductions amounted to 13 and 44% for croplands and 28 and 94% for grasslands. Thus, our findings revealed the importance of including changes in soil surface albedo in studies assessing the net climate change mitigation potential of biochar, and we discuss the urgent need for field studies and more detailed spatiotemporal modelling. (letter)

  19. Using the global positioning satellite system to determine attitude rates using doppler effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Charles E. (Inventor)

    2003-01-01

    In the absence of a gyroscope, the attitude and attitude rate of a receiver can be determined using signals received by antennae on the receiver. Based on the signals received by the antennae, the Doppler difference between the signals is calculated. The Doppler difference may then be used to determine the attitude rate. With signals received from two signal sources by three antennae pairs, the three-dimensional attitude rate is determined.

  20. Exploring similarities and differences in hospital adverse event rates between Norway and Sweden using Global Trigger Tool

    OpenAIRE

    Deilk?s, Ellen Tveter; Risberg, Madeleine Borgstedt; Haugen, Marion; Lindstr?m, Jonas Christoffer; Nyl?n, Urban; Rutberg, Hans; Michael, Soop

    2017-01-01

    Objectives: In this paper, we explore similarities and differences in hospital adverse event (AE) rates between Norway and Sweden by reviewing medical records with the Global Trigger Tool (GTT). Design: All acute care hospitals in both countries performed medical record reviews, except one in Norway. Records were randomly selected from all eligible admissions in 2013. Eligible admissions were patients 18 years of age or older, undergoing care with an in-hospital stay of at least 24 hours, exc...

  1. Terrestrial spreading centers under Venus conditions - Evaluation of a crustal spreading model for Western Aphrodite Terra

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sotin, C.; Senske, D. A.; Head, J. W.; Parmentier, E. M.

    1989-01-01

    The model of Reid and Jackson (1981) for terrestrial spreading centers is applied to Venus conditions. On the basis of spreading rate, mantle temperature, and surface temperature, the model predicts both isostatic topography and crustal thickness. The model and Pioneer Venus altimetry and gravity data are used to test the hypothesis of Head and Crumpler (1987) that Western Aphrodite Terra is the location of crustal spreading on Venus. It is concluded that a spreading center model for Ovda Regio in Western Aphrodite Terra could account for the observed topography and line-of-sight gravity anomalies found in the Pioneer data.

  2. Rain rate measurements over global oceans from IRS-P4 MSMR

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In this paper rain estimation capability of MSMR is explored. MSMR brightness temperature data of six channels corresponding to three frequencies of 10, 18 and 21 GHz are colocated with the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) derived rain rates to find a new empirical algorithm for rain rate by multiple regression. Multiple ...

  3. Does global warning increase establishment rates of invasive alien species? A centurial time series analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dingcheng Huang; Robert A. Haack; Runzhi. Zhang

    2011-01-01

    The establishment rate of invasive alien insect species has been increasing worldwide during the past century. This trend has been widely attributed to increased rates of international trade and associated species introductions, but rarely linked to environmental change. To better understand and manage the bioinvasion process, it is crucial to understand the...

  4. The antecedents and consequences of restrictive age-based ratings in the global motion picture industry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leenders, M.A.A.M.; Eliashberg, J.

    2011-01-01

    This article analyzes one key characteristic shared by a growing number of industries. Specifically, their products and services are continuously monitored and evaluated by local third-party ratings systems. In this study, we focus on understanding the local drivers of restrictive age-based ratings

  5. Rain rate measurements over global oceans from IRS-P4 MSMR

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    This algorithm explained about 82 per cent correlation (r) with rain rate, and 1.61 mm h−1 of error of estimation. ... MSMR derived monthly averaged rain rates are compared with similar estimates from. TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR), and it .... A second order polynomial fit explains corre- lation for 10 GHz vertically polarized ...

  6. The global financial crisis and the behavior of short-term interest rates: International and Serbian aspects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Đukić Đorđe

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Throughout the current global financial crisis the market has continued to fall due to a lack of confidence of those banks that are not yet prepared to lend on the interbank money market. For instance, the negative repercussions of the crisis onto the Serbian financial sector have created a number of issues including a significant increase in lending rates, a difficulty, or impossibility, for the corporate sector to use cheap cross-border loans and a reduction in the supply of foreign exchange on that basis. The inability of the National Bank of Serbia to follow the aggressive reduction of the key interest rate that has been implemented by central banks in developed countries, partly explains the lack of a decline in short-term interest rates by the Serbian banking industry. The first section of the paper focuses on the effects of the financial crisis through the behavior of short-term interest rates in the US and Europe, while the second section gives an estimation of the effects of the global financial crisis on interest rates in the banking industry in Serbia.

  7. Development and validation of a new global well-being outcomes rating scale for integrative medicine research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bell Iris R

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Researchers are finding limitations of currently available disease-focused questionnaire tools for outcome studies in complementary and alternative medicine/integrative medicine (CAM/IM. Methods Three substudies investigated the new one-item visual analogue Arizona Integrative Outcomes Scale (AIOS, which assesses self-rated global sense of spiritual, social, mental, emotional, and physical well-being over the past 24 hours and the past month. The first study tested the scale's ability to discriminate unhealthy individuals (n = 50 from healthy individuals (n = 50 in a rehabilitation outpatient clinic sample. The second study examined the concurrent validity of the AIOS by comparing ratings of global well-being to degree of psychological distress as measured by the Brief Symptom Inventory (BSI in undergraduate college students (N = 458. The third study evaluated the relationships between the AIOS and positively- and negatively-valenced tools (Positive and Negative Affect Scale and the Positive States of Mind Scale in a different sample of undergraduate students (N = 62. Results Substudy (i Rehabilitation patients scored significantly lower than the healthy controls on both forms of the AIOS and a current global health rating. The AIOS 24-hours correlated moderately and significantly with global health (patients r = 0.50; controls r = 0.45. AIOS 1-month correlations with global health were stronger within the controls (patients r = 0.36; controls r = 0.50. Controls (r = 0.64 had a higher correlation between the AIOS 24-hour and 1-month forms than did the patients (r = 0.33, which is consistent with the presumptive improvement in the patients' condition over the previous 30 days in rehabilitation. Substudy (ii In undergraduate students, AIOS scores were inversely related to distress ratings, as measured by the global severity index on the BSI (rAIOS24h = -0.42, rAIOS1month = -0.40. Substudy (iii AIOS scores were significantly

  8. Drop Spreading with Random Viscosity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Feng; Jensen, Oliver

    2016-11-01

    Airway mucus acts as a barrier to protect the lung. However as a biological material, its physical properties are known imperfectly and can be spatially heterogeneous. In this study we assess the impact of these uncertainties on the rate of spreading of a drop (representing an inhaled aerosol) over a mucus film. We model the film as Newtonian, having a viscosity that depends linearly on the concentration of a passive solute (a crude proxy for mucin proteins). Given an initial random solute (and hence viscosity) distribution, described as a Gaussian random field with a given correlation structure, we seek to quantify the uncertainties in outcomes as the drop spreads. Using lubrication theory, we describe the spreading of the drop in terms of a system of coupled nonlinear PDEs governing the evolution of film height and the vertically-averaged solute concentration. We perform Monte Carlo simulations to predict the variability in the drop centre location and width (1D) or area (2D). We show how simulation results are well described (at much lower computational cost) by a low-order model using a weak disorder expansion. Our results show for example how variability in the drop location is a non-monotonic function of the solute correlation length increases. Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council.

  9. A global database of nitrogen and phosphorus excretion rates of aquatic animals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Animals can be important in modulating ecosystem-level nutrient cycling, although their importance varies greatly among species and ecosystems. Nutrient cycling rates of individual animals represent valuable data for testing the predictions of important frameworks such as the Met...

  10. Global Prostate Cancer Incidence and Mortality Rates According to the Human Development Index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khazaei, Salman; Rezaeian, Shahab; Ayubi, Erfan; Gholamaliee, Behzad; Pishkuhi, Mahin Ahmadi; Khazaei, Somayeh; Mansori, Kamyar; Nematollahi, Shahrzad; Sani, Mohadeseh; Hanis, Shiva Mansouri

    2016-01-01

    Prostate cancer (PC) is one of the leading causes of death, especially in developed countries. The human development index (HDI) and its dimensions seem correlated with incidence and mortality rates of PC. This study aimed to assess the association of the specific components of HDI (life expectancy at birth, education, gross national income per 1000 capita, health, and living standards) with burden indicators of PC worldwide. Information of the incidence and mortality rates of PC was obtained from the GLOBOCAN cancer project in year 2012 and data about the HDI 2013 were obtained from the World Bank database. The correlation between incidence, mortality rates, and the HDI parameters were assessed using STATA software. A significant inequality of PC incidence rates was observed according to concentration indexes=0.25 with 95% CI (0.22, 0.34) and a negative mortality concentration index of -0.04 with 95% CI (-0.09, 0.01) was observed. A positive significant correlation was detected between the incidence rates of PC and the HDI and its dimensions including life expectancy at birth, education, income, urbanization level and obesity. However, there was a negative significant correlation between the standardized mortality rates and the life expectancy, income and HDI.

  11. Spread of Canine Flu

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2018-04-05

    Dr. Colin Parrish, a Professor of Virology at the College of Veterinary Medicine, Cornell University, discusses the spread of influenza among dogs.  Created: 4/5/2018 by National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (NCEZID).   Date Released: 4/5/2018.

  12. Global synchronization of complex dynamical networks through digital communication with limited data rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yan-Wu; Bian, Tao; Xiao, Jiang-Wen; Wen, Changyun

    2015-10-01

    This paper studies the global synchronization of complex dynamical network (CDN) under digital communication with limited bandwidth. To realize the digital communication, the so-called uniform-quantizer-sets are introduced to quantize the states of nodes, which are then encoded and decoded by newly designed encoders and decoders. To meet the requirement of the bandwidth constraint, a scaling function is utilized to guarantee the quantizers having bounded inputs and thus achieving bounded real-time quantization levels. Moreover, a new type of vector norm is introduced to simplify the expression of the bandwidth limit. Through mathematical induction, a sufficient condition is derived to ensure global synchronization of the CDNs. The lower bound on the sum of the real-time quantization levels is analyzed for different cases. Optimization method is employed to relax the requirements on the network topology and to determine the minimum of such lower bound for each case, respectively. Simulation examples are also presented to illustrate the established results.

  13. Large-Scale Variation in Forest Carbon Turnover Rate and its Relation to Climate - Remote Sensing vs. Global Vegetation Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalhais, N.; Thurner, M.; Beer, C.; Forkel, M.; Rademacher, T. T.; Santoro, M.; Tum, M.; Schmullius, C.

    2015-12-01

    While vegetation productivity is known to be strongly correlated to climate, there is a need for an improved understanding of the underlying processes of vegetation carbon turnover and their importance at a global scale. This shortcoming has been due to the lack of spatially extensive information on vegetation carbon stocks, which we recently have been able to overcome by a biomass dataset covering northern boreal and temperate forests originating from radar remote sensing. Based on state-of-the-art products on biomass and NPP, we are for the first time able to study the relation between carbon turnover rate and a set of climate indices in northern boreal and temperate forests. The implementation of climate-related mortality processes, for instance drought, fire, frost or insect effects, is often lacking or insufficient in current global vegetation models. In contrast to our observation-based findings, investigated models from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), including HYBRID4, JeDi, JULES, LPJml, ORCHIDEE, SDGVM, and VISIT, are able to reproduce spatial climate - turnover rate relationships only to a limited extent. While most of the models compare relatively well to observation-based NPP, simulated vegetation carbon stocks are severely biased compared to our biomass dataset. Current limitations lead to considerable uncertainties in the estimated vegetation carbon turnover, contributing substantially to the forest feedback to climate change. Our results are the basis for improving mortality concepts in global vegetation models and estimating their impact on the land carbon balance.

  14. Determinants of global left ventricular peak diastolic filling rate during rest and exercise in normal volunteers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Filiberti, A.W.; Bianco, J.A.; Baker, S.P.; Doherty; Nalivaika, L.A.; King, M.A.; Alpert, J.S.

    1984-01-01

    Early peak diastolic filling rate (PFR) of the left ventricle (LV) is said to be a sensitive index of LV dysfunction in patients with coronary disease, hypertension and hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. Radionuclide (RN0 multigated PFR was measured in 20 normal volunteers (13 males, 7 females, mean age 31 yrs., range 20-43) at rest and during supine bicycle exercise conducted to a symptomatic end-point. At rest, RN PFR was 3.4 +- SD 0.4 end-diastolic vols./sec (range 3.1 - 3.6). During exercise all normal volunteers had a progressive and numerically and statistically significant increase in PFR. Stepwise multiple linear regression (BMPD2R) was applied to the rest and exercise PFR data to develop a linear model describing the main determinants of the RN PFR. The potential independent variables which were included in the model were heart rate (HR), ejection fraction (EF), systolic arterial pressure, systolic ejection rate and exercise stage. Ranking of variables for prediction of RN PFR, and exclusion of less important variables, was done by F value criteria. The final multivariate equation was: LVPFR = -3.84437 + 0.03834 HR + 0.07537 LVEF. The model fit was highly significant (p<0.001), and accounted for 89 per cent of variability in the PFR. The authors conclude that the left ventricular peak filling rate is critically determined by heart rate and by ejection fraction at rest and during exercise

  15. Can molecular diffusion explain Space Shuttle plume spreading?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meier, R. R.; Plane, John M. C.; Stevens, Michael H.; Paxton, L. J.; Christensen, A. B.; Crowley, G.

    2010-04-01

    The satellite-borne Global Ultraviolet Imager (GUVI) has produced more than 20 images of NASA Space Shuttle main engine plumes in the lower thermosphere. These reveal atomic hydrogen and, by inference, water vapor transport over hemispherical-scale distances with speeds much faster than expected from models of thermospheric wind motions. Furthermore, the hydrogen plumes expand rapidly. We find rates that exceed the horizontal diffusion speed at nominal plume altitudes of 104-112 km. Kelley et al. (2009) have proposed a 2-D turbulence mechanism to explain the observed spreading rates (and rapid advection) of the plumes. But upon further investigation, we conclude that H atom diffusion can indeed account for the observed expansion rates by recognizing that vertical diffusion quickly conveys atoms to higher altitudes where horizontal diffusion is much more rapid. We also find evidence for H atom production directly during the Shuttle's main engine burn.

  16. Hybrid epidemic spreading - from Internet worms to HIV infection

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, C.

    2015-01-01

    Epidemic phenomena are ubiquitous, ranging from infectious diseases, computer viruses, to information dissemination. Epidemics have traditionally been studied as a single spreading process, either in a fully mixed population or on a network. Many epidemics, however, are hybrid, employing more than one spreading mechanism. For example, the Internet worm Conficker spreads locally targeting neighbouring computers in local networks as well as globally by randomly probing any computer on the Inter...

  17. Turbulent forces within river plumes affect spread

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharya, Atreyee

    2012-08-01

    When rivers drain into oceans through narrow mouths, hydraulic forces squeeze the river water into buoyant plumes that are clearly visible in satellite images. Worldwide, river plumes not only disperse freshwater, sediments, and nutrients but also spread pollutants and organisms from estuaries into the open ocean. In the United States, the Columbia River—the largest river by volume draining into the Pacific Ocean from North America—generates a plume at its mouth that transports juvenile salmon and other fish into the ocean. Clearly, the behavior and spread of river plumes, such as the Columbia River plume, affect the nation's fishing industry as well as the global economy.

  18. The impact of varicella vaccination on varicella-related hospitalization rates: global data review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirose, Maki; Gilio, Alfredo Elias; Ferronato, Angela Esposito; Ragazzi, Selma Lopes Betta

    2016-09-01

    to describe the impact of varicella vaccination on varicella-related hospitalization rates in countries that implemented universal vaccination against the disease. we identified countries that implemented universal vaccination against varicella at the http://apps.who.int/immunization_monitoring/globalsummary/schedules site of the World Health Organization and selected articles in Pubmed describing the changes (pre/post-vaccination) in the varicella-related hospitalization rates in these countries, using the Keywords "varicella", "vaccination/vaccine" and "children" (or) "hospitalization". Publications in English published between January 1995 and May 2015 were included. 24 countries with universal vaccination against varicella and 28 articles describing the impact of the vaccine on varicella-associated hospitalizations rates in seven countries were identified. The US had 81.4% -99.2% reduction in hospitalization rates in children younger than four years after 6-14 years after the onset of universal vaccination (1995), with vaccination coverage of 90%; Uruguay: 94% decrease (children aged 1-4 years) in six years, vaccination coverage of 90%; Canada: 93% decrease (age 1-4 years) in 10 years, coverage of 93%; Germany: 62.4% decrease (age 1-4 years) in 8 years, coverage of 78.2%; Australia: 76.8% decrease (age 1-4 years) in 5 years, coverage of 90%; Spain: 83.5% decrease (age <5 years) in four years, coverage of 77.2% and Italy 69.7% -73.8% decrease (general population), coverage of 60%-95%. The publications showed variations in the percentage of decrease in varicella-related hospitalization rates after universal vaccination in the assessed countries; the results probably depend on the time since the implementation of universal vaccination, differences in the studied age group, hospital admission criteria, vaccination coverage and strategy, which does not allow direct comparison between data. Copyright © 2016 Sociedade de Pediatria de São Paulo. Publicado por

  19. The impact of varicella vaccination on varicella-related hospitalization rates: global data review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maki Hirose

    Full Text Available Abstract Objective: To describe the impact of varicella vaccination on varicella-related hospitalization rates in countries that implemented universal vaccination against the disease. Data source: We identified countries that implemented universal vaccination against varicella at the http://apps.who.int/immunization_monitoring/globalsummary/schedules site of the World Health Organization and selected articles in Pubmed describing the changes (pre/post-vaccination in the varicella-related hospitalization rates in these countries, using the Keywords "varicella", "vaccination/vaccine" and "children" (or "hospitalization". Publications in English published between January 1995 and May 2015 were included. Data synthesis: 24 countries with universal vaccination against varicella and 28 articles describing the impact of the vaccine on varicella-associated hospitalizations rates in seven countries were identified. The US had 81.4%–99.2% reduction in hospitalization rates in children younger than four years, 6–14 years after the onset of universal vaccination (1995, with vaccination coverage of 90%; Uruguay: 94% decrease (children aged 1–4 years in six years, vaccination coverage of 90%; Canada: 93% decrease (age 1–4 years in 10 years, coverage of 93%; Germany: 62.4% decrease (age 1–4 years in 8 years, coverage of 78.2%; Australia: 76.8% decrease (age 1–4 years in 5 years, coverage of 90%; Spain: 83.5% decrease (age <5 years in four years, coverage of 77.2% and Italy 69.7%–73.8% decrease (general population, coverage of 60%–95%. Conclusions: The publications showed variations in the percentage of decrease in varicella-related hospitalization rates after universal vaccination in the assessed countries; the results probably depend on the time since the implementation of universal vaccination, differences in the studied age group, hospital admission criteria, vaccination coverage and strategy, which does not allow direct comparison between

  20. Combinatorics of spreads and parallelisms

    CERN Document Server

    Johnson, Norman

    2010-01-01

    Partitions of Vector Spaces Quasi-Subgeometry Partitions Finite Focal-SpreadsGeneralizing André SpreadsThe Going Up Construction for Focal-SpreadsSubgeometry Partitions Subgeometry and Quasi-Subgeometry Partitions Subgeometries from Focal-SpreadsExtended André SubgeometriesKantor's Flag-Transitive DesignsMaximal Additive Partial SpreadsSubplane Covered Nets and Baer Groups Partial Desarguesian t-Parallelisms Direct Products of Affine PlanesJha-Johnson SL(2,

  1. Global determination of rating curves in the Amazon basin from satellite altimetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paris, Adrien; Paiva, Rodrigo C. D.; Santos da Silva, Joecila; Medeiros Moreira, Daniel; Calmant, Stéphane; Collischonn, Walter; Bonnet, Marie-Paule; Seyler, Frédérique

    2014-05-01

    The Amazonian basin is the largest hydrological basin all over the world. Over the past few years, it has experienced an unusual succession of extreme droughts and floods, which origin is still a matter of debate. One of the major issues in understanding such events is to get discharge series distributed over the entire basin. Satellite altimetry can be used to improve our knowledge of the hydrological stream flow conditions in the basin, through rating curves. Rating curves are mathematical relationships between stage and discharge at a given place. The common way to determine the parameters of the relationship is to compute the non-linear regression between the discharge and stage series. In this study, the discharge data was obtained by simulation through the entire basin using the MGB-IPH model with TRMM Merge input rainfall data and assimilation of gage data, run from 1998 to 2009. The stage dataset is made of ~900 altimetry series at ENVISAT and Jason-2 virtual stations, sampling the stages over more than a hundred of rivers in the basin. Altimetry series span between 2002 and 2011. In the present work we present the benefits of using stochastic methods instead of probabilistic ones to determine a dataset of rating curve parameters which are hydrologicaly meaningful throughout the entire Amazon basin. The rating curve parameters have been computed using an optimization technique based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler and Bayesian inference scheme. This technique provides an estimate of the best value for the parameters together with their posterior probability distribution, allowing the determination of a credibility interval for calculated discharge. Also the error over discharges estimates from the MGB-IPH model is included in the rating curve determination. These MGB-IPH errors come from either errors in the discharge derived from the gage readings or errors in the satellite rainfall estimates. The present experiment shows that the stochastic approach

  2. Comparison of global storm activity rate calculated from Schumann resonance background components to electric field intensity E0 Z

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nieckarz, Zenon; Kułak, Andrzej; Zięba, Stanisław; Kubicki, Marek; Michnowski, Stanisław; Barański, Piotr

    2009-02-01

    This work presents the results of a comparison between the global storm activity rate IRS and electric field intensity E0 Z. The permanent analysis of the IRS may become an important tool for testing Global Electric Circuit models. IRS is determined by a new method that uses the background component of the first 7 Schumann resonances (SR). The rate calculations are based on ELF observations carried out in 2005 and 2006 in the observatory station "Hylaty" of the Jagiellonian University in the Eastern Carpathians (Kułak, A., Zięba, S., Micek, S., Nieckarz, Z., 2003. Solar variations in extremely low frequency propagation parameters: I. A two-dimensional telegraph equation (TDTE) model of ELF propagation and fundamental parameters of Schumann resonances, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 1270, doi:10.1029/2002JA009304). Diurnal runs of the IRS rate were compared with diurnal runs of E0 Z amplitudes registered at the Earth's surface in the Geophysical Observatory of the Polish Academy of Sciences in Świder (Kubicki, M., 2005. Results of Atmospheric Electricity and Meteorological Observations, S. Kalinowski Geophysical Observatory at Świder 2004, Pub. Inst. Geophysics Polish Academy of Sciences, D-68 (383), Warszawa.). The days with the highest values of the correlation coefficient ( R) between amplitudes of both observed parameters characterizing atmosphere electric activity are shown. The seasonal changes of R, IRS and E0 Z are also presented.

  3. Global characterization of in vivo enzyme catalytic rates and their correspondence to in vitro kcat measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidi, Dan; Noor, Elad; Liebermeister, Wolfram; Bar-Even, Arren; Flamholz, Avi; Tummler, Katja; Barenholz, Uri; Goldenfeld, Miki; Shlomi, Tomer; Milo, Ron

    2016-01-01

    Turnover numbers, also known as kcat values, are fundamental properties of enzymes. However, kcat data are scarce and measured in vitro, thus may not faithfully represent the in vivo situation. A basic question that awaits elucidation is: how representative are kcat values for the maximal catalytic rates of enzymes in vivo? Here, we harness omics data to calculate kmaxvivo, the observed maximal catalytic rate of an enzyme inside cells. Comparison with kcat values from Escherichia coli, yields a correlation of r2= 0.62 in log scale (p enzymes and the backward flux dictated by thermodynamics, we further refine the correspondence between kmaxvivo and kcat values. The approach we present here characterizes the quantitative relationship between enzymatic catalysis in vitro and in vivo and offers a high-throughput method for extracting enzyme kinetic constants from omics data. PMID:26951675

  4. Spread spectrum image steganography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marvel, L M; Boncelet, C R; Retter, C T

    1999-01-01

    In this paper, we present a new method of digital steganography, entitled spread spectrum image steganography (SSIS). Steganography, which means "covered writing" in Greek, is the science of communicating in a hidden manner. Following a discussion of steganographic communication theory and review of existing techniques, the new method, SSIS, is introduced. This system hides and recovers a message of substantial length within digital imagery while maintaining the original image size and dynamic range. The hidden message can be recovered using appropriate keys without any knowledge of the original image. Image restoration, error-control coding, and techniques similar to spread spectrum are described, and the performance of the system is illustrated. A message embedded by this method can be in the form of text, imagery, or any other digital signal. Applications for such a data-hiding scheme include in-band captioning, covert communication, image tamperproofing, authentication, embedded control, and revision tracking.

  5. Regime-dependent determinants of Euro area sovereign CDS spreads

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Blommestein, H.J.; Eijffinger, Sylvester; Qian, Zongxin

    We study the determinants of sovereign CDS spreads of five Euro area countries (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain) after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. We find that global and/or European Monetary Union (EMU)-wide factors are the main drivers of changes in the sovereign CDS spreads in

  6. Flame spread along thermally thick horizontal rods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higuera, F. J.

    2002-06-01

    An analysis is carried out of the spread of a flame along a horizontal solid fuel rod, for which a weak aiding natural convection flow is established in the underside of the rod by the action of the axial gradient of the pressure variation that gravity generates in the warm gas surrounding the flame. The spread rate is determined in the limit of infinitely fast kinetics, taking into account the effect of radiative losses from the solid surface. The effect of a small inclination of the rod is discussed, pointing out a continuous transition between upward and downward flame spread. Flame spread along flat-bottomed solid cylinders, for which the gradient of the hydrostatically generated pressure drives the flow both along and across the direction of flame propagation, is also analysed.

  7. GLOBAL STAR FORMATION RATES AND DUST EMISSION OVER THE GALAXY INTERACTION SEQUENCE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lanz, Lauranne; Zezas, Andreas; Smith, Howard A.; Ashby, Matthew L. N.; Fazio, Giovanni G.; Hernquist, Lars [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden St., Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Brassington, Nicola [School of Physics, Astronomy and Mathematics, University of Hertfordshire, College Lane, Hatfield, AL10 9AB (United Kingdom); Da Cunha, Elisabete [Max Planck Institute for Astronomy (MPIA), Koenigstuhl 17, D-69117, Heidelberg (Germany); Hayward, Christopher C. [Heidelberger Institut fuer Theoretische Studien, Schloss-Wolfsbrunnenweg 35, D-69118, Heidelberg (Germany); Jonsson, Patrik, E-mail: llanz@head.cfa.harvard.edu [Space Exploration Technologies, 1 Rocket Road, Hawthorne, CA 90250 (United States)

    2013-05-01

    We measured and modeled spectral energy distributions (SEDs) in 28 bands from the ultraviolet to the far-infrared (FIR) for 31 interacting galaxies in 14 systems. The sample is drawn from the Spitzer Interacting Galaxy Survey, which probes a range of galaxy interaction parameters at multiple wavelengths with an emphasis on the infrared bands. The subset presented in this paper consists of all galaxies for which FIR Herschel SPIRE observations are publicly available. Our SEDs combine the Herschel photometry with multi-wavelength data from Spitzer, GALEX, Swift UVOT, and 2MASS. While the shapes of the SEDs are broadly similar across our sample, strongly interacting galaxies typically have more mid-infrared emission relative to their near-infrared and FIR emission than weakly or moderately interacting galaxies. We modeled the full SEDs to derive host galaxy star formation rates (SFRs), specific star formation rates (sSFRs), stellar masses, dust temperatures, dust luminosities, and dust masses. We find increases in the dust luminosity and mass, SFR, and cold (15-25 K) dust temperature as the interaction progresses from moderately to strongly interacting and between non-interacting and strongly interacting galaxies. We also find increases in the SFR between weakly and strongly interacting galaxies. In contrast, the sSFR remains unchanged across all the interaction stages. The ultraviolet photometry is crucial for constraining the age of the stellar population and the SFR, while dust mass is primarily determined by SPIRE photometry. The SFR derived from the SED modeling agrees well with rates estimated by proportionality relations that depend on infrared emission.

  8. Collecting Information for Rating Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF): Sources of Information and Methods for Information Collection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    I H, Monrad Aas

    2014-11-01

    Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF) is an assessment instrument that is known worldwide. It is widely used for rating the severity of illness. Results from evaluations in psychiatry should characterize the patients. Rating of GAF is based on collected information. The aim of the study is to identify the factors involved in collecting information that is relevant for rating GAF, and gaps in knowledge where it is likely that further development would play a role for improved scoring. A literature search was conducted with a combination of thorough hand search and search in the bibliographic databases PubMed, PsycINFO, Google Scholar, and Campbell Collaboration Library of Systematic Reviews. Collection of information for rating GAF depends on two fundamental factors: the sources of information and the methods for information collection. Sources of information are patients, informants, health personnel, medical records, letters of referral and police records about violence and substance abuse. Methods for information collection include the many different types of interview - unstructured, semi-structured, structured, interviews for Axis I and II disorders, semistructured interviews for rating GAF, and interviews of informants - as well as instruments for rating symptoms and functioning, and observation. The different sources of information, and methods for collection, frequently result in inconsistencies in the information collected. The variation in collected information, and lack of a generally accepted algorithm for combining collected information, is likely to be important for rated GAF values, but there is a fundamental lack of knowledge about the degree of importance. Research to improve GAF has not reached a high level. Rated GAF values are likely to be influenced by both the sources of information used and the methods employed for information collection, but the lack of research-based information about these influences is fundamental. Further development of

  9. Plasma Protein Turnover Rates in Rats Using Stable Isotope Labeling, Global Proteomics, and Activity-Based Protein Profiling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Jordan N.; Tyrrell, Kimberly J.; Hansen, Joshua R.; Thomas, Dennis G.; Murphree, Taylor A.; Shukla, Anil K.; Luders, Teresa; Madden, James M.; Li, Yunying; Wright, Aaron T.; Piehowski, Paul D.

    2017-12-06

    Protein turnover is important for general health on cellular and organism scales providing a strategy to replace old, damaged, or dysfunctional proteins. Protein turnover also informs of biomarker kinetics, as a better understanding of synthesis and degradation of proteins increases the clinical utility of biomarkers. Here, turnover rates of plasma proteins in rats were measured in vivo using a pulse-chase stable isotope labeling experiment. During the pulse, rats (n=5) were fed 13C6-labeled lysine (“heavy”) feed for 23 days to label proteins. During the chase, feed was changed to an unlabeled equivalent feed (“light”), and blood was repeatedly sampled from rats over 10 time points for 28 days. Plasma samples were digested with trypsin, and analyzed with liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). MaxQuant was used to identify peptides and proteins, and quantify heavy:light lysine ratios. A system of ordinary differential equations was used to calculate protein turnover rates. Using this approach, 273 proteins were identified, and turnover rates were quantified for 157 plasma proteins with half-lives ranging 0.3-103 days. For the ~70 most abundant proteins, variability in turnover rates among rats was low (median coefficient of variation: 0.09). Activity-based protein profiling was applied to pooled plasma samples to enrich serine hydrolases using a fluorophosphonate (FP2) activity-based probe. This enrichment resulted in turnover rates for an additional 17 proteins. This study is the first to measure global plasma protein turnover rates in rats in vivo, measure variability of protein turnover rates in any animal model, and utilize activity-based protein profiling for enhancing measurements of targeted, low-abundant proteins, such as those commonly used as biomarkers. Measured protein turnover rates will be important for understanding of the role of protein turnover in cellular and organism health as well as increasing the utility of protein

  10. An empirical analysis of freight rate and vessel price volatility transmission in global dry bulk shipping market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Dai

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Global dry bulk shipping market is an important element of global economy and trade. Since newbuilding and secondhand vessels are often traded as assets and the freight rate is the key determinant of vessel price, it is important for shipping market participants to understand the market dynamics and price transmission mechanism over time to make suitable strategic decisions. To address this issue, a multi-variate GARCH model was applied in this paper to explore the volatility spillover effects across the vessel markets (including newbuilding and secondhand vessel markets and freight market. Specifically, the BEKK parameterization of the multi-variate GARCH model (BEKK GARCH was proposed to capture the volatility transmission effect from the freight market, newbuilding and secondhand vessel markets in the global dry bulk shipping industry. Empirical results reveal that significant volatility transmission effects exist in each market sector, i.e. capesize, panamax, handymax and handysize. Besides, the market volatility transmission mechanism varies among different vessel types. Moreover, some bilateral effects are found in the dry bulk shipping market, showing that lagged variances could affect the current variance in a counterpart market, regardless of the volatility transmission. A simple ratio is proposed to guide investors optimizing their portfolio allocations. The findings in this paper could provide unique insights for investors to understand the market and hedge their portfolios well.

  11. Global complication rates of type 2 diabetes in Indigenous peoples: A comprehensive review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naqshbandi, Mariam; Harris, Stewart B; Esler, James G; Antwi-Nsiah, Fred

    2008-10-01

    The world's Indigenous peoples are experiencing an unprecedented epidemic of type 2 diabetes [T2DM] but little has been published describing the complications burden. The objective of this paper was to conduct a systematic review of T2DM complications in Indigenous populations worldwide. A literature review was conducted using PubMed and EMBASE to examine available complications data. Country, Indigenous population, authors, publication year, total sample size, Indigenous sample size, age, methodology, and prevalence of nephropathy, end-stage renal disease, retinopathy, neuropathy, lower extremity amputations, cardiovascular disease, hospitalizations and mortality due to diabetes were recorded. One-hundred and eleven studies were selected. Results revealed a disproportionate burden of disease complications among all Indigenous peoples regardless of their geographic location. Complication rates were seen to vary widely across Indigenous groups. Gaps were found in the published literature on complications among Indigenous populations, especially those living in underdeveloped countries. These gaps may be in part due to the challenges caused by varying operational practices, research methodologies, and definitions of the term Indigenous, making documentation of rates among these peoples problematic. Comprehensive surveillance applying standardized definitions and methodologies is needed to design targeted prevention and disease management strategies for Indigenous peoples with T2DM.

  12. Optimal carbon emissions trajectories when damages depend on the rate or level of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peck, S.C.; Teisberg, T.J.

    1994-01-01

    The authors extend earlier work with the Carbon Emissions Trajectory Assessment model (CETA) to consider a number of issues relating to the nature of optimal carbon emissions trajectories. They first explore model results when warming costs are associated with the rate of temperature rise, rather than with its level, as in earlier work. It is found that optimal trajectories are more strongly affected by the degree of non-linearity in the warming cost function than by whether the cost function is driven by the warming level or the warming rate. The authors briefly explore the implications of simple uncertainty and risk aversion for optimal emissions trajectories to be somewhat lower, but that the effect is not noticeable in the near term and not dramatic in the long term; the long term effect on the shadow price of carbon is more marked, however. Finally, they experiment with scaling up the warming cost functions until optimal policies are approximately the same as a policy of stabilising emissions at the 1990 level. Based on the results of this experiment, it is concluded that damages would have to be very high to justify anything like a stabilization policy; and even in this case, a policy allowing intertemporal variation in emissions would be better. 18 refs., 15 figs

  13. Spreading in online social networks: the role of social reinforcement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Muhua; Lü, Linyuan; Zhao, Ming

    2013-07-01

    Some epidemic spreading models are usually applied to analyze the propagation of opinions or news. However, the dynamics of epidemic spreading and information or behavior spreading are essentially different in many aspects. Centola's experiments [Science 329, 1194 (2010)] on behavior spreading in online social networks showed that the spreading is faster and broader in regular networks than in random networks. This result contradicts with the former understanding that random networks are preferable for spreading than regular networks. To describe the spreading in online social networks, a unknown-known-approved-exhausted four-status model was proposed, which emphasizes the effect of social reinforcement and assumes that the redundant signals can improve the probability of approval (i.e., the spreading rate). Performing the model on regular and random networks, it is found that our model can well explain the results of Centola's experiments on behavior spreading and some former studies on information spreading in different parameter space. The effects of average degree and network size on behavior spreading process are further analyzed. The results again show the importance of social reinforcement and are accordant with Centola's anticipation that increasing the network size or decreasing the average degree will enlarge the difference of the density of final approved nodes between regular and random networks. Our work complements the former studies on spreading dynamics, especially the spreading in online social networks where the information usually requires individuals' confirmations before being transmitted to others.

  14. Bank Lending, Housing and Spreads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aslam, Aqib; Santoro, Emiliano

    The framework presented in this paper takes its cue from recent financial events and attempts to develop a tractable framework for policy analysis of macro-linkages, in particular a first attempt at the integration of an independent profit-maximising banking sector that lends to and borrows from...... agents in the economy, and through which changes in the monetary policy rate by the central bank are transmitted. The inter-linkages between housing and the role of the banking sector in the transmission of monetary policy is emphasized. Two competing effects are highlighted: (i) a financial accelerator...... channel, due to the presence of collateralized borrowers, and (ii) a banking attenuator effect, which crucially arises from the spread in interest rates caused by the introduction of monopolistically competitive financial intermediaries. We show how the classical amplification mechanism explored in models...

  15. Free energy analysis of cell spreading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McEvoy, Eóin; Deshpande, Vikram S; McGarry, Patrick

    2017-10-01

    In this study we present a steady-state adaptation of the thermodynamically motivated stress fiber (SF) model of Vigliotti et al. (2015). We implement this steady-state formulation in a non-local finite element setting where we also consider global conservation of the total number of cytoskeletal proteins within the cell, global conservation of the number of binding integrins on the cell membrane, and adhesion limiting ligand density on the substrate surface. We present a number of simulations of cell spreading in which we consider a limited subset of the possible deformed spread-states assumed by the cell in order to examine the hypothesis that free energy minimization drives the process of cell spreading. Simulations suggest that cell spreading can be viewed as a competition between (i) decreasing cytoskeletal free energy due to strain induced assembly of cytoskeletal proteins into contractile SFs, and (ii) increasing elastic free energy due to stretching of the mechanically passive components of the cell. The computed minimum free energy spread area is shown to be lower for a cell on a compliant substrate than on a rigid substrate. Furthermore, a low substrate ligand density is found to limit cell spreading. The predicted dependence of cell spread area on substrate stiffness and ligand density is in agreement with the experiments of Engler et al. (2003). We also simulate the experiments of Théry et al. (2006), whereby initially circular cells deform and adhere to "V-shaped" and "Y-shaped" ligand patches. Analysis of a number of different spread states reveals that deformed configurations with the lowest free energy exhibit a SF distribution that corresponds to experimental observations, i.e. a high concentration of highly aligned SFs occurs along free edges, with lower SF concentrations in the interior of the cell. In summary, the results of this study suggest that cell spreading is driven by free energy minimization based on a competition between decreasing

  16. Spreading convulsions, spreading depolarization and epileptogenesis in human cerebral cortex

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dreier, Jens P; Major, Sebastian; Pannek, Heinz-Wolfgang

    2012-01-01

    Spreading depolarization of cells in cerebral grey matter is characterized by massive ion translocation, neuronal swelling and large changes in direct current-coupled voltage recording. The near-complete sustained depolarization above the inactivation threshold for action potential generating...... stimulations. Eventually, epileptic field potentials were recorded during the period that had originally seen spreading depression of activity. Such spreading convulsions are characterized by epileptic field potentials on the final shoulder of the large slow potential change of spreading depolarization. We...

  17. Application of an Artificial Neural Network to the Prediction of OH Radical Reaction Rate Constants for Evaluating Global Warming Potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allison, Thomas C

    2016-03-03

    Rate constants for reactions of chemical compounds with hydroxyl radical are a key quantity used in evaluating the global warming potential of a substance. Experimental determination of these rate constants is essential, but it can also be difficult and time-consuming to produce. High-level quantum chemistry predictions of the rate constant can suffer from the same issues. Therefore, it is valuable to devise estimation schemes that can give reasonable results on a variety of chemical compounds. In this article, the construction and training of an artificial neural network (ANN) for the prediction of rate constants at 298 K for reactions of hydroxyl radical with a diverse set of molecules is described. Input to the ANN consists of counts of the chemical bonds and bends present in the target molecule. The ANN is trained using 792 (•)OH reaction rate constants taken from the NIST Chemical Kinetics Database. The mean unsigned percent error (MUPE) for the training set is 12%, and the MUPE of the testing set is 51%. It is shown that the present methodology yields rate constants of reasonable accuracy for a diverse set of inputs. The results are compared to high-quality literature values and to another estimation scheme. This ANN methodology is expected to be of use in a wide range of applications for which (•)OH reaction rate constants are required. The model uses only information that can be gathered from a 2D representation of the molecule, making the present approach particularly appealing, especially for screening applications.

  18. Estimation of wave directional spreading

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Deo, M.C.; Gondane, D.S.; SanilKumar, V.

    One of the useful measures of waves directional spreading at a given location is the directional spreading parameter. This paper presents a new approach to arrive at its characteristic value using the computational technique of Artificial Neural...

  19. Social networks and spreading of epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trimper, Steffen; Zheng, Dafang; Brandau, Marian

    2004-05-01

    Epidemiological processes are studied within a recently proposed social network model using the susceptible-infected-refractory dynamics (SIR) of an epidemic. Within the network model, a population of individuals may be characterized by H independent hierarchies or dimensions, each of which consists of groupings of individuals into layers of subgroups. Detailed numerical simulations reveals that for H > 1, the global spreading results regardless of the degree of homophily α of the individuals forming a social circle. For H = 1, a transition from a global to a local spread occurs as the population becomes decomposed into increasingly homophilous groups. Multiple dimensions in classifying individuals (nodes) thus make a society (computer network) highly susceptible to large scale outbreaks of infectious diseases (viruses). The SIR-model can be extended by the inclusion of waiting times resulting in modified distribution function of the recovered.

  20. Illusory spreading of watercolor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devinck, Frédéric; Hardy, Joseph L; Delahunt, Peter B; Spillmann, Lothar; Werner, John S

    2006-05-04

    The watercolor effect (WCE) is a phenomenon of long-range color assimilation occurring when a dark chromatic contour delineating a figure is flanked on the inside by a brighter chromatic contour; the brighter color spreads into the entire enclosed area. Here, we determined the optimal chromatic parameters and the cone signals supporting the WCE. To that end, we quantified the effect of color assimilation using hue cancellation as a function of hue, colorimetric purity, and cone modulation of inducing contours. When the inner and outer contours had chromaticities that were in opposite directions in color space, a stronger WCE was obtained as compared with other color directions. Additionally, equal colorimetric purity between the outer and inner contours was necessary to obtain a large effect compared with conditions in which the contours differed in colorimetric purity. However, there was no further increase in the magnitude of the effect when the colorimetric purity increased beyond a value corresponding to an equal vector length between the inner and outer contours. Finally, L-M-cone-modulated WCE was perceptually stronger than S-cone-modulated WCE for our conditions. This last result demonstrates that both L-M-cone and S-cone pathways are important for watercolor spreading. Our data suggest that the WCE depends critically upon the particular spatiochromatic arrangement in the display, with the relative chromatic contrast between the inducing contours being particularly important.

  1. Dynamical Model about Rumor Spreading with Medium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaxia Zhao

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Rumor is a kind of social remark, that is untrue, and not be confirmed, and spreads on a large scale in a short time. Usually, it can induce a cloud of pressure, anxiety, and panic. Traditionally, it is propagated by word of mouth. Nowadays, with the emergence of the internet, rumors can be spread by instant messengers, emails, or publishing. With this new pattern of spreading, an ISRW dynamical model considering the medium as a subclass is established. Beside the dynamical analysis of the model, we mainly explore the mechanism of spreading of individuals-to-individuals and medium-to-individual. By numerical simulation, we find that if we want to control the rumor spreading, it will not only need to control the rate of change of the spreader subclass, but also need to control the change of the information about rumor in medium which has larger influence. Moreover, to control the effusion of rumor is more important than deleting existing information about rumor. On the one hand, government should enhance the management of internet. On the other hand, relevant legal institutions for punishing the rumor creator and spreader on internet who can be tracked should be established. Using this way, involved authorities can propose efficient measures to control the rumor spreading to keep the stabilization of society and development of economy.

  2. Hybrid spread spectrum radio system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Stephen F [London, TN; Dress, William B [Camas, WA

    2010-02-09

    Systems and methods are described for hybrid spread spectrum radio systems. A method, includes receiving a hybrid spread spectrum signal including: fast frequency hopping demodulating and direct sequence demodulating a direct sequence spread spectrum signal, wherein multiple frequency hops occur within a single data-bit time and each bit is represented by chip transmissions at multiple frequencies.

  3. Seasonal variations of equatorial spread-F

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. V. Krishna Murthy

    Full Text Available The occurrence of spread-F at Trivandrum (8.5°N, 77°E, dip 0.5°N has been investigated on a seasonal basis in sunspot maximum and minimum years in terms of the growth rate of irregularities by the generalized collisional Rayleigh-Taylor (GRT instability mechanism which includes the gravitational and cross-field instability terms. The occurrence statistics of spread-F at Trivandrum have been obtained using quarter hourly ionograms. The nocturnal variations of the growth rate of irregularities by the GRT mechanism have been estimated for different seasons in sunspot maximum and minimum years at Trivandrum using h'F values and vertical drift velocities obtained from ionograms. It is found that the seasonal variation of spread-F occurrence at Trivandrum can, in general, be accounted for on the basis of the GRT mechanism.

  4. Seasonal variations of equatorial spread-F

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. S. V. Subbarao

    1994-01-01

    Full Text Available The occurrence of spread-F at Trivandrum (8.5°N, 77°E, dip 0.5°N has been investigated on a seasonal basis in sunspot maximum and minimum years in terms of the growth rate of irregularities by the generalized collisional Rayleigh-Taylor (GRT instability mechanism which includes the gravitational and cross-field instability terms. The occurrence statistics of spread-F at Trivandrum have been obtained using quarter hourly ionograms. The nocturnal variations of the growth rate of irregularities by the GRT mechanism have been estimated for different seasons in sunspot maximum and minimum years at Trivandrum using h'F values and vertical drift velocities obtained from ionograms. It is found that the seasonal variation of spread-F occurrence at Trivandrum can, in general, be accounted for on the basis of the GRT mechanism.

  5. Linear theory of equatorial spread F

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hudson, M.K.; Kennel, C.F.

    1975-01-01

    A fluid dispersion relation for the drift and interchange (Rayleigh-Taylor) modes in a collisional plasma forms the basis for a linear theory of equatorial spread F. The collisional drift mode growth rate will exceed the growth rate of the Rayleigh-Taylor mode at short perpendicular wavelengths and density gradient scale lengths, and the drift mode can grow on top side as well as on bottom side density gradients. However, below the F peak, where spread F predominates, it is concluded that both the drift and the Rayleigh-Taylor modes contribute to the total spread F spectrum, the Rayleigh-Taylor mode dominating at long and the drift mode at short perpendicular wavelengths above the ion Larmor radius

  6. Exploring similarities and differences in hospital adverse event rates between Norway and Sweden using Global Trigger Tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deilkås, Ellen Tveter; Risberg, Madeleine Borgstedt; Haugen, Marion; Lindstrøm, Jonas Christoffer; Nylén, Urban; Rutberg, Hans; Michael, Soop

    2017-03-20

    In this paper, we explore similarities and differences in hospital adverse event (AE) rates between Norway and Sweden by reviewing medical records with the Global Trigger Tool (GTT). All acute care hospitals in both countries performed medical record reviews, except one in Norway. Records were randomly selected from all eligible admissions in 2013. Eligible admissions were patients 18 years of age or older, undergoing care with an in-hospital stay of at least 24 hours, excluding psychiatric and care and rehabilitation. Reviews were done according to GTT methodology. Similar contexts for healthcare and similar socioeconomic and demographic characteristics have inspired the Nordic countries to exchange experiences from measuring and monitoring quality and patient safety in healthcare. The co-operation has promoted the use of GTT to monitor national and local rates of AEs in hospital care. 10 986 medical records were reviewed in Norway and 19 141 medical records in Sweden. No significant difference between overall AE rates was found between the two countries. The rate was 13.0% (95% CI 11.7% to 14.3%) in Norway and 14.4% (95% CI 12.6% to 16.3%) in Sweden. There were significantly higher AE rates of surgical complications in Norwegian hospitals compared with Swedish hospitals. Swedish hospitals had significantly higher rates of pressure ulcers, falls and 'other' AEs. Among more severe AEs, Norwegian hospitals had significantly higher rates of surgical complications than Swedish hospitals. Swedish hospitals had significantly higher rates of postpartum AEs. The level of patient safety in acute care hospitals, as assessed by GTT, was essentially the same in both countries. The differences between the countries in the rates of several types of AEs provide new incentives for Norwegian and Swedish governing bodies to address patient safety issues. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please

  7. Assessment of thema code against spreading experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spindler, B.; Veteau, J.M.; Cecco, L. de; Montanelli, P.; Pineau, D.

    2000-01-01

    In the frame work of severe accident research, the spreading code THEMA, developed at CEA/DRN, aims at predicting the spreading extent of molten core after a vessel melt-through. The code solves fluid balance equations integrated over the fluid depth for oxidic and/or metallic phases under the shallow water assumption, using a finite difference scheme. Solidification is taken into account through crust formation on the substrate and at contact with the surroundings, as well as increase of fluid viscosity with solid fraction in the melt. A separate energy equation is solved for the solid substrate, including possible ablation. The assessment of THEMA code against the spreading experiments performed in the framework of the corium spreading and coolability project of the European Union is presented. These experiments use either simulating materials at medium (RIT), or at high temperature (KATS), or corium (VULCANO, FARO), conducted at different mass flow rates and with large or low solidification interval. THEMA appears to be able to simulate the whole set of the experiments investigated. Comparison between experimental and computed spreading lengths and substrate temperatures are quite satisfactory. The results show a rather large sensitivity at mass flow rate and inlet temperature, indicating that, generally, efforts should be made to improve the accuracy of the measurements of such parameters in the experiments. (orig.)

  8. FACTORS INFLUENCING YIELD SPREADS OF THE MALAYSIAN BONDS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Norliza Ahmad

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Malaysian bond market is developing rapidly but not much is understood in terms of macroeconomic factors that could influence the yield spread of the Ringgit Malaysian denominated bonds. Based on a multifactor model, this paper examines the impact of four macroeconomic factors namely: Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI, Industry Production Index (IPI, Consumer Price Index (CPI and interest rates (IR on bond yield spread of the Malaysian Government Securities (MGS and Corporate Bonds (CBs for a period from January 2001 to December 2008. The findings support the expected hypotheses that CPI and IR are the major drivers that influence the changes in MGS yield spreads. However IPI and KLCI have weak and no influence on MGS yield spreads respectively Whilst IR, CPI and IPI have significant influence on the yield spreads of CB1, CB2 and CB3, KLCI has significant influence only on the CB1 yield spread but not on CB2 and CB3 yield spreads.

  9. Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Guangming; Wang, Xingyuan

    2014-06-01

    The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold qc. The epidemic will survive when q > qc and die when q epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure.

  10. Atmospheric chemistry of (Z)-CF3CH═CHCF3: OH radical reaction rate coefficient and global warming potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baasandorj, Munkhbayar; Ravishankara, A R; Burkholder, James B

    2011-09-29

    Rate coefficients, k, for the gas-phase reaction of the OH radical with (Z)-CF(3)CH═CHCF(3) (cis-1,1,1,4,4,4-hexafluoro-2-butene) were measured under pseudo-first-order conditions in OH using pulsed laser photolysis (PLP) to produce OH and laser-induced fluorescence (LIF) to detect it. Rate coefficients were measured over a range of temperatures (212-374 K) and bath gas pressures (20-200 Torr; He, N(2)) and found to be independent of pressure over this range of conditions. The rate coefficient has a non-Arrhenius behavior that is well-described by the expression k(1)(T) = (5.73 ± 0.60) × 10(-19) × T(2) × exp[(678 ± 10)/T] cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) where k(1)(296 K) was measured to be (4.91 ± 0.50) × 10(-13) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) and the uncertainties are at the 2σ level and include estimated systematic errors. Rate coefficients for the analogous OD radical reaction were determined over a range of temperatures (262-374 K) at 100 Torr (He) to be k(2)(T) = (4.81 ± 0.20) × 10(-19) × T(2) × exp[(776 ± 15)/T], with k(2)(296 K) = (5.73 ± 0.50) × 10(-13) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1). OH radical rate coefficients were also measured at 296, 345, and 375 K using a relative rate technique and found to be in good agreement with the PLP-LIF results. A room-temperature rate coefficient for the O(3) + (Z)-CF(3)CH═CHCF(3) reaction was measured using an absolute method with O(3) in excess to be reaction was estimated to be ~20 days. Infrared absorption spectra of (Z)-CF(3)CH═CHCF(3) measured in this work were used to determine a (Z)-CF(3)CH═CHCF(3) global warming potential (GWP) of ~9 for the 100 year time horizon. A comparison of the OH reactivity of (Z)-CF(3)CH═CHCF(3) with other unsaturated fluorinated compounds is presented.

  11. GENERAL: Epidemic spreading on networks with vaccination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Hong-Jing; Duan, Zhi-Sheng; Chen, Guan-Rong; Li, Rong

    2009-08-01

    In this paper, a new susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model on complex networks with imperfect vaccination is proposed. Two types of epidemic spreading patterns (the recovered individuals have or have not immunity) on scale-free networks are discussed. Both theoretical and numerical analyses are presented. The epidemic thresholds related to the vaccination rate, the vaccination-invalid rate and the vaccination success rate on scale-free networks are demonstrated, showing different results from the reported observations. This reveals that whether or not the epidemic can spread over a network under vaccination control is determined not only by the network structure but also by the medicine's effective duration. Moreover, for a given infective rate, the proportion of individuals to vaccinate can be calculated theoretically for the case that the recovered nodes have immunity. Finally, simulated results are presented to show how to control the disease prevalence.

  12. High-temperature spreading kinetics of metals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rauch, N.

    2005-05-15

    In this PhD work a drop transfer setup combined with high speed photography has been used to analyze the spreading of Ag on polished polycrystalline Mo and single crystalline Mo (110) and (100) substrates. The objective of this work was to unveil the basic phenomena controlling spreading in metal-metal systems. The observed spreading kinetics were compared with current theories of low and high temperature spreading such as a molecular kinetic model and a fluid flow model. Analyses of the data reveal that the molecular model does describe the fastest velocity data well for all the investigated systems. Therefore, the energy which is dissipated during the spreading process is a dissipation at the triple line rather than dissipation due to the viscosity in the liquid. A comparison of the determined free activation energy for wetting of {delta}G95{approx}145kJ/mol with literature values allows the statement that the rate determining step seems to be a surface diffusion of the Ag atoms along the triple line. In order to investigate possible ridge formation, due to local atomic diffusion of atoms of the substrate at the triple during the spreading process, grooving experiments of the polycrystalline Mo were performed to calculate the surface diffusities that will control ridge evolution. The analyses of this work showed that a ridge formation at the fastest reported wetting velocities was not possible if there is no initial perturbation for a ridge. If there was an initial perturbation for a ridge the ridge had to be much smaller than 1 nm in order to be able to move with the liquid font. Therefore ridge formation does not influence the spreading kinetics for the studied system and the chosen conditions. SEM, AFM and TEM investigations of the triple line showed that ridge formation does also not occur at the end of the wetting experiment when the drop is close to equilibrium and the wetting velocity is slow. (orig.)

  13. Credit Portfolio Management in a Turning Rates Environment

    OpenAIRE

    Berd, Arthur M.; Ranguelova, Elena; da Silva, Antonio Baldaque

    2013-01-01

    We give a detailed account of correlations between credit sector/quality and treasury curve factors, using the robust framework of the Barclays POINT Global Risk Model. Consistent with earlier studies, we find a strong negative correlation between sector spreads and rate shifts. However, we also observe that the correlations between spreads and Treasury twists reversed recently, which is likely attributable to the Fed's ongoing quantitative easing. We also find that short-term effective durat...

  14. Spreading of rock avalanches

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kamis, A.S.; Savage, S.G. [McGill Univ., Dept. of Civil Engineering, Montreal, Quebec (Canada)

    1985-07-01

    Landslides and rockfalls that initiate on a steep slope eventually come to rest after flowing for some runout distance on a flat. Rockfalls of very large masses have been observed to exhibit unexpectedly long runout distances. This problem becomes more significant as the development of resources in mountain regions becomes more intensive. As early as 1881, Albert Heim observed and described the Elm rockfall of Switzerland (quoted by as HsU). This rockfall produced a debris which moved more than 2 Km along a nearly horizontal valley floor and one of its branches surged up the side of the valley to a height of 100 m. From the deposit of the Elm and the eyewitnesses Heim concluded that the debris behaved as a flowing fluid rather than sliding solids. Davies, among others, suggested that the excessive runout distance is volume dependent and the larger the volume of the debris, the longer the relative travel distance. A summary of the numerous hypotheses which have been proposed to explain this puzzling phenomena were also presented by Davies. However, none of these have been completely satisfactory or generally accepted. A simple model of the flow and spreading of a finite mass of cohesionless granular material down incline has been developed as a part of the present preliminary investigation into the mechanics of rockfalls. (author)

  15. Global Bi-ventricular endocardial distribution of activation rate during long duration ventricular fibrillation in normal and heart failure canines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Qingzhi; Jin, Qi; Zhang, Ning; Han, Yanxin; Wang, Yilong; Huang, Shangwei; Lin, Changjian; Ling, Tianyou; Chen, Kang; Pan, Wenqi; Wu, Liqun

    2017-04-13

    The objective of this study was to detect differences in the distribution of the left and right ventricle (LV & RV) activation rate (AR) during short-duration ventricular fibrillation (SDVF, 1 min) in normal and heart failure (HF) canine hearts. Ventricular fibrillation (VF) was electrically induced in six healthy dogs (control group) and six dogs with right ventricular pacing-induced congestive HF (HF group). Two 64-electrode basket catheters deployed in the LV and RV were used for global endocardium electrical mapping. The AR of VF was estimated by fast Fourier transform analysis from each electrode. In the control group, the LV was activated faster than the RV in the first 20 s, after which there was no detectable difference in the AR between them. When analyzing the distribution of the AR within the bi-ventricles at 3 min of LDVF, the posterior LV was activated fastest, while the anterior was slowest. In the HF group, a detectable AR gradient existed between the two ventricles within 3 min of VF, with the LV activating more quickly than the RV. When analyzing the distribution of the AR within the bi-ventricles at 3 min of LDVF, the septum of the LV was activated fastest, while the anterior was activated slowest. A global bi-ventricular endocardial AR gradient existed within the first 20 s of VF but disappeared in the LDVF in healthy hearts. However, the AR gradient was always observed in both SDVF and LDVF in HF hearts. The findings of this study suggest that LDVF in HF hearts can be maintained differently from normal hearts, which accordingly should lead to the development of different management strategies for LDVF resuscitation.

  16. 中国公司债券利差影响因素研究--基于评级信息的分析%The Determinants of Credit Spreads of Corporate Bonds in China---An Analysis Based on the Rating Information

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郑玉仙

    2016-01-01

    This paper investigates the determinants of credit spread in Chinese corporate bond market based on the theory of credit spread decomposition. The findings reveal that the expected default accounts for a really small fraction of the after-tax spread in corporate rates over treasuries, and that the term structure of the risk-free rate, the liquidity risk premium and the PMI index all have strong explanatory powers for credit spread.%本文以信用利差分解理论为基础,结合债券评级信息,基于市场实际数据实证研究了中国公司债券市场信用利差的决定因素。结果表明,预期违约损失在税后信用利差中只占很小的比例,无风险利率的期限结构、流动性风险因子、宏观经济指标等因子都对信用利差有较显著的解释力。

  17. Global Rating Scales and Motion Analysis Are Valid Proficiency Metrics in Virtual and Benchtop Knee Arthroscopy Simulators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Justues; Banaszek, Daniel C; Gambrel, Jason; Bardana, Davide

    2016-04-01

    Work-hour restrictions and fatigue management strategies in surgical training programs continue to evolve in an effort to improve the learning environment and promote safer patient care. In response, training programs must reevaluate how various teaching modalities such as simulation can augment the development of surgical competence in trainees. For surgical simulators to be most useful, it is important to determine whether surgical proficiency can be reliably differentiated using them. To our knowledge, performance on both virtual and benchtop arthroscopy simulators has not been concurrently assessed in the same subjects. (1) Do global rating scales and procedure time differentiate arthroscopic expertise in virtual and benchtop knee models? (2) Can commercially available built-in motion analysis metrics differentiate arthroscopic expertise? (3) How well are performance measures on virtual and benchtop simulators correlated? (4) Are these metrics sensitive enough to differentiate by year of training? A cross-sectional study of 19 subjects (four medical students, 12 residents, and three staff) were recruited and divided into 11 novice arthroscopists (student to Postgraduate Year [PGY] 3) and eight proficient arthroscopists (PGY 4 to staff) who completed a diagnostic arthroscopy and loose-body retrieval in both virtual and benchtop knee models. Global rating scales (GRS), procedure times, and motion analysis metrics were used to evaluate performance. The proficient group scored higher on virtual (14 ± 6 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 10-18] versus 36 ± 5 [95% CI, 32-40], p virtual scope (579 ±169 [95% CI, 466-692] versus 358 ± 178 [95% CI, 210-507] seconds, p = 0.02) and benchtop knee scope + probe (480 ± 160 [95% CI, 373-588] versus 277 ± 64 [95% CI, 224-330] seconds, p = 0.002). The built-in motion analysis metrics also distinguished novices from proficient arthroscopists using the self-generated virtual loose body retrieval task scores (4 ± 1 [95% CI, 3

  18. Spreading Depression, Spreading Depolarizations, and the Cerebral Vasculature

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ayata, Cenk; Lauritzen, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Spreading depression (SD) is a transient wave of near-complete neuronal and glial depolarization associated with massive transmembrane ionic and water shifts. It is evolutionarily conserved in the central nervous systems of a wide variety of species from locust to human. The depolarization spreads...

  19. Exploring bounty and spread

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Rasmus Rex

    2018-01-01

    indications of the consequences of this shift. The article builds on existing research in the cultural industries and 'the industrial information economy' (Benkler 2006) and seeks to provide knowledge on the im- pact of music streaming on the Danish market for recorded music. Central to this topic are new......This article analyses the structural effects of the transition from the sale of music in physical and digital form to the access-based business model of music streaming. The global music streaming market is currently maturing rapidly, and as early adap- tors, the Nordic countries provide early...

  20. Flame spread over inclined electrical wires with AC electric fields

    KAUST Repository

    Lim, Seung J.

    2017-07-21

    Flame spread over polyethylene-insulated electrical wires was studied experimentally with applied alternating current (AC) by varying the inclination angle (θ), applied voltage (VAC), and frequency (fAC). For the baseline case with no electric field applied, the flame spread rate and the flame width of downwardly spreading flames (DSFs) decreased from the horizontal case for −20° ≤ θ < 0° and maintained near constant values for −90° ≤ θ < −20°, while the flame spread rate increased appreciably as the inclination angle of upwardly spreading flames (USFs) increased. When an AC electric field was applied, the behavior of flame spread rate in DSFs (USFs) could be classified into two (three) sub-regimes characterized by various functional dependences on VAC, fAC, and θ. In nearly all cases of DSFs, a globular molten polyethylene formed ahead of the spreading flame edge, occasionally dripping onto the ground. In these cases, an effective flame spread rate was defined to represent the burning rate by measuring the mass loss due to dripping. This effective spread rate was independent of AC frequency, while it decreased linearly with voltage and was independent of the inclination angle. In DSFs, when excessively high voltage and frequency were applied, the dripping led to flame extinction during propagation and the extinction frequency correlated well with applied voltage. In USFs, when high voltage and frequency were applied, multiple globular molten PEs formed at several locations, leading to ejections of multiple small flame segments from the main flame, thereby reducing the flame spread rate, which could be attributed to the electrospray phenomenon.

  1. Sociodemographic, disease status, and illness perceptions predictors of global self-ratings of health and quality of life among those with coronary heart disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aalto, Anna-Mari; Aro, Arja R; Weinman, John

    2006-01-01

    This one-year follow-up study (n = 130 at baseline, n =2745 at follow-up, aged 45-74 years) examined the relationship of patients' perceptions of coronary heart disease (CHD) and illness-related factors with global health status and global quality of life (QOL) ratings. The independent variables...... were CHD history (myocardial infarction, revascularisation), CHD severity (use of nitrates, CHD risk factors and co-morbidities) and illness perceptions. In multivariate regression analysis, CHD history and severity explained 13% of variance in global health status and 8% in global QOL ratings...... at the baseline. Illness perceptions increased the share of explained variance by 18% and 16% respectively. In the follow-up, illness perceptions explained a significant but modest share of variance in change in health status and QOL when baseline health status and QOL and CHD severity were adjusted for more...

  2. Combined Aircraft and Satellite-Derived Storm Electric Current and Lightning Rates Measurements and Implications for the Global Electric Circuit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mach, Douglas M.; Blakeslee, Richard J.; Bateman, Monte G.

    2010-01-01

    Using rotating vane electric field mills and Gerdien capacitors, we measured the electric field profile and conductivity during 850 overflights of electrified shower clouds and thunderstorms spanning regions including the Southeastern United States, the Western Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico, Central America and adjacent oceans, Central Brazil, and the South Pacific. The overflights include storms over land and ocean, with and without lightning, and with positive and negative fields above the storms. The measurements were made with the NASA ER-2 and the Altus-II high altitude aircrafts. Peak electric fields, with lightning transients removed, ranged from -1.0 kV/m to 16 kV/m, with a mean value of 0.9 kV/m. The median peak field was 0.29 kV/m. Integrating our electric field and conductivity data, we determined total conduction currents and flash rates for each overpass. With knowledge of the storm location (land or ocean) and type (with or without lightning), we determine the mean currents by location and type. The mean current for ocean storms with lightning is 1.6 A while the mean current for land storms with lightning is 1.0 A. The mean current for oceanic storms without lightning (i.e., electrified shower clouds) is 0.39 A and the mean current for land storms without lightning is 0.13 A. Thus, on average, land storms with or without lightning have about half the mean current as their corresponding oceanic storm counterparts. Over three-quarters (78%) of the land storms had detectable lightning, while less than half (43%) of the oceanic storms had lightning. We did not find any significant regional or latitudinal based patterns in our total conduction currents. By combining the aircraft derived storm currents and flash rates with diurnal lightning statistics derived from the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and Optical Transient Detector (OTD) low Earth orbiting satellites, we reproduce the diurnal variation in the global electric circuit (i.e., the Carnegie

  3. Uncertainty in the learning rates of energy technologies. An experiment in a global multi-regional energy system model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rout, Ullash K.; Blesl, Markus; Fahl, Ulrich; Remme, Uwe; Voss, Alfred

    2009-01-01

    The diffusion of promising energy technologies in the market depends on their future energy production-cost development. When analyzing these technologies in an integrated assessment model using endogenous technological learning, the uncertainty in the assumed learning rates (LRs) plays a crucial role in the production-cost development and model outcomes. This study examines the uncertainty in LRs of some energy technologies under endogenous global learning implementation and presents a floor-cost modeling procedure to systematically regulate the uncertainty in LRs of energy technologies. The article narrates the difficulties of data assimilation, as compatible with mixed integer programming segmentations, and comprehensively presents the causes of uncertainty in LRs. This work is executed using a multi-regional and long-horizon energy system model based on 'TIMES' framework. All regions receive an economic advantage to learn in a common domain, and resource-ample regions obtain a marginal advantage for better exploitation of the learning technologies, due to a lower supply-side fuel-cost development. The lowest learning investment associated with the maximum LR mobilizes more deployment of the learning technologies. The uncertainty in LRs has an impact on the diffusion of energy technologies tested, and therefore this study scrutinizes the role of policy support for some of the technologies investigated. (author)

  4. Bridging the mantle: A comparison of geomagnetic polarity reversal rate, global subduction flux, and true polar wander records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biggin, A. J.; Hounslow, M.; Domeier, M.

    2017-12-01

    The long-term variability in average geomagnetic reversal frequency over the Phanerozoic, consisting of superchrons interspersed with periods of hyper-reversal activity, remains one of the most prominent and enigmatic features evident within palaeomagnetic records. This variability is widely expected to reflect mantle convection modifying the pattern and/or magnitude of core-mantle boundary heat flow, and thereby affecting the geodynamo's operation, but actual causal links to surface geological processes remain tenuous. Previous studies have argued that mantle plumes, superplume oscillation, true polar wander, and avalanching of cold slabs into the lower mantle could all be at least partly responsible. Here we will present a re-evaluated reversal frequency record for the Phanerozoic and use it, together with published findings from numerical geodynamo simulations, to push further towards an integrated explanation of how the geomagnetic field has responded to mantle processes over the last few hundreds of million years. Recent work on absolute plate motions back through the Phanerozoic have allowed estimations to be made as to both the global subduction flux and rates of true polar wander through time. When considered alongside the outputs of numerical simulations of the geodynamo process, these can potentially explain long-timescale palaeomagnetic variations over the last few hundreds of million years.

  5. Human activity and the spread of Phytophthora ramorum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall J. Cushman; Michelle Cooper; Ross K. Meentemeyer; Shelly Benson

    2008-01-01

    Increasing numbers of studies are finding that humans can facilitate the spread of exotic plant species in protected wildlands. Hiking trails commonly serve as conduits for invaders and the number of exotic plant species occurring in protected areas is often correlated positively with visitation rates. Despite such evidence linking human activity to the spread of...

  6. Reductions in soil surface albedo as a function of biochar application rate: implications for global radiative forcing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verheijen, F.G.A.; Jeffery, S.L.; Velde, te M.; Penizek, V.; Beland, M.; Bastos, A.C.; Keizer, J.J.

    2013-01-01

    Biochar can be defined as pyrolysed (charred) biomass produced for application to soils with the aim of mitigating global climate change while improving soil functions. Sustainable biochar application to soils has been estimated to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by 71-130 Pg CO2-C-e over 100

  7. Disease spreading in real-life networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallos, Lazaros; Argyrakis, Panos

    2002-08-01

    In recent years the scientific community has shown a vivid interest in the network structure and dynamics of real-life organized systems. Many such systems, covering an extremely wide range of applications, have been recently shown to exhibit scale-free character in their connectivity distribution, meaning that they obey a power law. Modeling of epidemics on lattices and small-world networks suffers from the presence of a critical infection threshold, above which the entire population is infected. For scale-free networks, the original assumption was that the formation of a giant cluster would lead to an epidemic spreading in the same way as in simpler networks. Here we show that modeling epidemics on a scale-free network can greatly improve the predictions on the rate and efficiency of spreading, as compared to lattice models and small-world networks. We also show that the dynamics of a disease are greatly influenced by the underlying population structure. The exact same model can describe a plethora of networks, such as social networks, virus spreading in the Web, rumor spreading, signal transmission etc.

  8. Unidirectional spreading of oil under solid ice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weerasuriya, S.A.; Yapa, P.D.

    1993-01-01

    Equations are presented to describe the unidirectional spreading of oil under solid ice covers floating in calm water. These spreading equations are derived using a simplified form of the Navier-Stokes equations, and cover both the constant discharge and the constant volume modes. An equation for computing final slick length is also given. Laboratory experiments using physical models were conducted to verify the equations. The experiments used oils of different viscosities, ice cover roughnesses varying from smooth to rough, and a variety of discharge conditions. The emphasis of the study was on the dominant spreading mechanism for oil under ice, which is the buoyancy-viscous phase. The laboratory results agree closely with the theoretical predictions. Discrepancies can be attributed to the experimental difficulties and errors introduced from the assumptions made in deriving the theory. The equations presented will be useful in computing spreading rate during an accidental oil spill or in contingency planning. The equations are simple to use, suitable for hand calculations or for incorporation into numerical models for oil spill simulation. 24 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab

  9. The impact of awareness on epidemic spreading in networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qingchu; Fu, Xinchu; Small, Michael; Xu, Xin-Jian

    2012-03-01

    We explore the impact of awareness on epidemic spreading through a population represented by a scale-free network. Using a network mean-field approach, a mathematical model for epidemic spreading with awareness reactions is proposed and analyzed. We focus on the role of three forms of awareness including local, global, and contact awareness. By theoretical analysis and simulation, we show that the global awareness cannot decrease the likelihood of an epidemic outbreak while both the local awareness and the contact awareness can. Also, the influence degree of the local awareness on disease dynamics is closely related with the contact awareness.

  10. Physical model for membrane protrusions during spreading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chamaraux, F; Ali, O; Fourcade, B; Keller, S; Bruckert, F

    2008-01-01

    During cell spreading onto a substrate, the kinetics of the contact area is an observable quantity. This paper is concerned with a physical approach to modeling this process in the case of ameboid motility where the membrane detaches itself from the underlying cytoskeleton at the leading edge. The physical model we propose is based on previous reports which highlight that membrane tension regulates cell spreading. Using a phenomenological feedback loop to mimic stress-dependent biochemistry, we show that the actin polymerization rate can be coupled to the stress which builds up at the margin of the contact area between the cell and the substrate. In the limit of small variation of membrane tension, we show that the actin polymerization rate can be written in a closed form. Our analysis defines characteristic lengths which depend on elastic properties of the membrane–cytoskeleton complex, such as the membrane–cytoskeleton interaction, and on molecular parameters, the rate of actin polymerization. We discuss our model in the case of axi-symmetric and non-axi-symmetric spreading and we compute the characteristic time scales as a function of fundamental elastic constants such as the strength of membrane–cytoskeleton adherence

  11. Reliability and Efficiency of Generalized Rumor Spreading Model on Complex Social Networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naimi, Yaghoob; Naimi, Mohammad

    2013-01-01

    We introduce the generalized rumor spreading model and investigate some properties of this model on different complex social networks. Despite pervious rumor models that both the spreader-spreader (SS) and the spreader-stifler (SR) interactions have the same rate α, we define α (1) and α (2) for SS and SR interactions, respectively. The effect of variation of α (1) and α (2) on the final density of stiflers is investigated. Furthermore, the influence of the topological structure of the network in rumor spreading is studied by analyzing the behavior of several global parameters such as reliability and efficiency. Our results show that while networks with homogeneous connectivity patterns reach a higher reliability, scale-free topologies need a less time to reach a steady state with respect the rumor. (interdisciplinary physics and related areas of science and technology)

  12. Lattice model for influenza spreading with spontaneous behavioral changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fierro, Annalisa; Liccardo, Antonella

    2013-01-01

    Individual behavioral response to the spreading of an epidemic plays a crucial role in the progression of the epidemic itself. The risk perception induces individuals to adopt a protective behavior, as for instance reducing their social contacts, adopting more restrictive hygienic measures or undergoing prophylaxis procedures. In this paper, starting with a previously developed lattice-gas SIR model, we construct a coupled behavior-disease model for influenza spreading with spontaneous behavioral changes. The focus is on self-initiated behavioral changes that alter the susceptibility to the disease, without altering the contact patterns among individuals. Three different mechanisms of awareness spreading are analyzed: the local spreading due to the presence in the neighborhood of infective individuals; the global spreading due to the news published by the mass media and to educational campaigns implemented at institutional level; the local spreading occurring through the "thought contagion" among aware and unaware individuals. The peculiarity of the present approach is that the awareness spreading model is calibrated on available data on awareness and concern of the population about the risk of contagion. In particular, the model is validated against the A(H1N1) epidemic outbreak in Italy during the 2009/2010 season, by making use of the awareness data gathered by the behavioral risk factor surveillance system (PASSI). We find that, increasing the accordance between the simulated awareness spreading and the PASSI data on risk perception, the agreement between simulated and experimental epidemiological data improves as well. Furthermore, we show that, within our model, the primary mechanism to reproduce a realistic evolution of the awareness during an epidemic, is the one due to globally available information. This result highlights how crucial is the role of mass media and educational campaigns in influencing the epidemic spreading of infectious diseases.

  13. Lattice model for influenza spreading with spontaneous behavioral changes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annalisa Fierro

    Full Text Available Individual behavioral response to the spreading of an epidemic plays a crucial role in the progression of the epidemic itself. The risk perception induces individuals to adopt a protective behavior, as for instance reducing their social contacts, adopting more restrictive hygienic measures or undergoing prophylaxis procedures. In this paper, starting with a previously developed lattice-gas SIR model, we construct a coupled behavior-disease model for influenza spreading with spontaneous behavioral changes. The focus is on self-initiated behavioral changes that alter the susceptibility to the disease, without altering the contact patterns among individuals. Three different mechanisms of awareness spreading are analyzed: the local spreading due to the presence in the neighborhood of infective individuals; the global spreading due to the news published by the mass media and to educational campaigns implemented at institutional level; the local spreading occurring through the "thought contagion" among aware and unaware individuals. The peculiarity of the present approach is that the awareness spreading model is calibrated on available data on awareness and concern of the population about the risk of contagion. In particular, the model is validated against the A(H1N1 epidemic outbreak in Italy during the 2009/2010 season, by making use of the awareness data gathered by the behavioral risk factor surveillance system (PASSI. We find that, increasing the accordance between the simulated awareness spreading and the PASSI data on risk perception, the agreement between simulated and experimental epidemiological data improves as well. Furthermore, we show that, within our model, the primary mechanism to reproduce a realistic evolution of the awareness during an epidemic, is the one due to globally available information. This result highlights how crucial is the role of mass media and educational campaigns in influencing the epidemic spreading of infectious

  14. Spreading gossip in social networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lind, Pedro G.; da Silva, Luciano R.; Andrade, José S., Jr.; Herrmann, Hans J.

    2007-09-01

    We study a simple model of information propagation in social networks, where two quantities are introduced: the spread factor, which measures the average maximal reachability of the neighbors of a given node that interchange information among each other, and the spreading time needed for the information to reach such a fraction of nodes. When the information refers to a particular node at which both quantities are measured, the model can be taken as a model for gossip propagation. In this context, we apply the model to real empirical networks of social acquaintances and compare the underlying spreading dynamics with different types of scale-free and small-world networks. We find that the number of friendship connections strongly influences the probability of being gossiped. Finally, we discuss how the spread factor is able to be applied to other situations.

  15. Spread effects - methodology; Spredningseffekter - metodegrunnlag

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-07-01

    Diffusion of technology, environmental effects and rebound effects are the principal effects from the funding of renewable energy and energy economising. It is difficult to estimate the impact of the spread effects both prior to the measures are implemented and after the measures are carried out. Statistical methods can be used to estimate the spread effects, but they are insecure and always need to be complemented with qualitative and subjective evaluations. It is more adequate to evaluate potential spread effects from market and market data surveillance for a selection of technologies and parties. Based on this information qualitative indicators for spread effects can be constructed and used both ex ante and ex post (ml)

  16. Spreading gossip in social networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lind, Pedro G; da Silva, Luciano R; Andrade, José S; Herrmann, Hans J

    2007-09-01

    We study a simple model of information propagation in social networks, where two quantities are introduced: the spread factor, which measures the average maximal reachability of the neighbors of a given node that interchange information among each other, and the spreading time needed for the information to reach such a fraction of nodes. When the information refers to a particular node at which both quantities are measured, the model can be taken as a model for gossip propagation. In this context, we apply the model to real empirical networks of social acquaintances and compare the underlying spreading dynamics with different types of scale-free and small-world networks. We find that the number of friendship connections strongly influences the probability of being gossiped. Finally, we discuss how the spread factor is able to be applied to other situations.

  17. Avian Influenza spread and transmission dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourouiba, Lydia; Gourley, Stephen A.; Liu, Rongsong; Takekawa, John Y.; Wu, Jianhong; Chen, Dongmei; Moulin, Bernard; Wu, Jianhong

    2015-01-01

    The spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses of type A of subtype H5N1 has been a serious threat to global public health. Understanding the roles of various (migratory, wild, poultry) bird species in the transmission of these viruses is critical for designing and implementing effective control and intervention measures. Developing appropriate models and mathematical techniques to understand these roles and to evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation strategies have been a challenge. Recent development of the global health surveillance (especially satellite tracking and GIS techniques) and the mathematical theory of dynamical systems combined have gradually shown the promise of some cutting-edge methodologies and techniques in mathematical biology to meet this challenge.

  18. Spread and burning behavior of continuous spill fires

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Jinlong; Huang, Hong; Jomaas, Grunde

    2017-01-01

    Spill fire experiments with continuous discharge on a fireproof glass sheet were conducted to improve the understanding of spill fire spread and burning. Ethanol was used as the fuel and the discharge rate was varied from 2.8. mL/s to 7.6. mL/s. Three ignition conditions were used...... in the experiments; no ignition, instantaneous ignition and delayed ignition. The spread rate, regression rate, penetrated thermal radiation and the temperature of the bottom glass were analyzed. The experiments clearly show the entire spread process for spill fires. Further, the regression rate of spill fires...... at the quasi-steady burning was lower than that of pool fires and the ratio of the spill fires' regression rate to the pool fires' regression rate was found to be approximately 0.89. With respect to the radiative penetration and the heat conduction between the fuel layer and the glass, a regression rate...

  19. Resource Allocation with Adaptive Spread Spectrum OFDM Using 2D Spreading for Power Line Communications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baudais Jean-Yves

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Bit-loading techniques based on orthogonal frequency division mutiplexing (OFDM are frequently used over wireline channels. In the power line context, channel state information can reasonably be obtained at both transmitter and receiver sides, and adaptive loading can advantageously be carried out. In this paper, we propose to apply loading principles to an spread spectrum OFDM (SS-OFDM waveform which is a multicarrier system using 2D spreading in the time and frequency domains. The presented algorithm handles the subcarriers, spreading codes, bits and energies assignment in order to maximize the data rate and the range of the communication system. The optimization is realized at a target symbol error rate and under spectral mask constraint as usually imposed. The analytical study shows that the merging principle realized by the spreading code improves the rate and the range of the discrete multitone (DMT system in single and multiuser contexts. Simulations have been run over measured power line communication (PLC channel responses and highlight that the proposed system is all the more interesting than the received signal-to-noise ratio (SNR is low.

  20. Resource Allocation with Adaptive Spread Spectrum OFDM Using 2D Spreading for Power Line Communications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baudais, Jean-Yves; Crussière, Matthieu

    2007-12-01

    Bit-loading techniques based on orthogonal frequency division mutiplexing (OFDM) are frequently used over wireline channels. In the power line context, channel state information can reasonably be obtained at both transmitter and receiver sides, and adaptive loading can advantageously be carried out. In this paper, we propose to apply loading principles to an spread spectrum OFDM (SS-OFDM) waveform which is a multicarrier system using 2D spreading in the time and frequency domains. The presented algorithm handles the subcarriers, spreading codes, bits and energies assignment in order to maximize the data rate and the range of the communication system. The optimization is realized at a target symbol error rate and under spectral mask constraint as usually imposed. The analytical study shows that the merging principle realized by the spreading code improves the rate and the range of the discrete multitone (DMT) system in single and multiuser contexts. Simulations have been run over measured power line communication (PLC) channel responses and highlight that the proposed system is all the more interesting than the received signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is low.

  1. Global equivalent magnetization of the oceanic lithosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dyment, J.; Choi, Y.; Hamoudi, M.; Lesur, V.; Thebault, E.

    2015-11-01

    As a by-product of the construction of a new World Digital Magnetic Anomaly Map over oceanic areas, we use an original approach based on the global forward modeling of seafloor spreading magnetic anomalies and their comparison to the available marine magnetic data to derive the first map of the equivalent magnetization over the World's ocean. This map reveals consistent patterns related to the age of the oceanic lithosphere, the spreading rate at which it was formed, and the presence of mantle thermal anomalies which affects seafloor spreading and the resulting lithosphere. As for the age, the equivalent magnetization decreases significantly during the first 10-15 Myr after its formation, probably due to the alteration of crustal magnetic minerals under pervasive hydrothermal alteration, then increases regularly between 20 and 70 Ma, reflecting variations in the field strength or source effects such as the acquisition of a secondary magnetization. As for the spreading rate, the equivalent magnetization is twice as strong in areas formed at fast rate than in those formed at slow rate, with a threshold at ∼40 km/Myr, in agreement with an independent global analysis of the amplitude of Anomaly 25. This result, combined with those from the study of the anomalous skewness of marine magnetic anomalies, allows building a unified model for the magnetic structure of normal oceanic lithosphere as a function of spreading rate. Finally, specific areas affected by thermal mantle anomalies at the time of their formation exhibit peculiar equivalent magnetization signatures, such as the cold Australian-Antarctic Discordance, marked by a lower magnetization, and several hotspots, marked by a high magnetization.

  2. Global Scale Attribution of Anthropogenic and Natural Dust Sources and their Emission Rates Based on MODIS Deep Blue Aerosol Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ginoux, Paul; Prospero, Joseph M.; Gill, Thomas E.; Hsu, N. Christina; Zhao, Ming

    2012-01-01

    Our understanding of the global dust cycle is limited by a dearth of information about dust sources, especially small-scale features which could account for a large fraction of global emissions. Here we present a global-scale high-resolution (0.1 deg) mapping of sources based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Deep Blue estimates of dust optical depth in conjunction with other data sets including land use. We ascribe dust sources to natural and anthropogenic (primarily agricultural) origins, calculate their respective contributions to emissions, and extensively compare these products against literature. Natural dust sources globally account for 75% of emissions; anthropogenic sources account for 25%. North Africa accounts for 55% of global dust emissions with only 8% being anthropogenic, mostly from the Sahel. Elsewhere, anthropogenic dust emissions can be much higher (75% in Australia). Hydrologic dust sources (e.g., ephemeral water bodies) account for 31% worldwide; 15% of them are natural while 85% are anthropogenic. Globally, 20% of emissions are from vegetated surfaces, primarily desert shrublands and agricultural lands. Since anthropogenic dust sources are associated with land use and ephemeral water bodies, both in turn linked to the hydrological cycle, their emissions are affected by climate variability. Such changes in dust emissions can impact climate, air quality, and human health. Improved dust emission estimates will require a better mapping of threshold wind velocities, vegetation dynamics, and surface conditions (soil moisture and land use) especially in the sensitive regions identified here, as well as improved ability to address small-scale convective processes producing dust via cold pool (haboob) events frequent in monsoon regimes.

  3. The spreading time in SIS epidemics on networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Zhidong; Van Mieghem, Piet

    2018-03-01

    In a Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) process, we investigate the spreading time Tm, which is the time when the number of infected nodes in the metastable state is first reached, starting from the outbreak of the epidemics. We observe that the spreading time Tm resembles a lognormal-like distribution, though with different deep tails, both for the Markovian and the non-Markovian infection process, which implies that the spreading time can be very long with a relatively high probability. In addition, we show that a stronger virus, with a higher effective infection rate τ or an earlier timing of the infection attempts, does not always lead to a shorter average spreading time E [Tm ] . We numerically demonstrate that the average spreading time E [Tm ] in the complete graph and the star graph scales logarithmically as a function of the network size N for a fixed fraction of infected nodes in the metastable state.

  4. Modelling fast spreading patterns of airborne infectious diseases using complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brenner, Frank; Marwan, Norbert; Hoffmann, Peter

    2017-04-01

    The pandemics of SARS (2002/2003) and H1N1 (2009) have impressively shown the potential of epidemic outbreaks of infectious diseases in a world that is strongly connected. Global air travelling established an easy and fast opportunity for pathogens to migrate globally in only a few days. This made epidemiological prediction harder. By understanding this complex development and its link to climate change we can suggest actions to control a part of global human health affairs. In this study we combine the following data components to simulate the outbreak of an airborne infectious disease that is directly transmitted from human to human: em{Global Air Traffic Network (from openflights.org) with information on airports, airport location, direct flight connection, airplane type} em{Global population dataset (from SEDAC, NASA)} em{Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) compartmental model to simulate disease spreading in the vicinity of airports. A modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model to analyze the impact of the incubation period.} em{WATCH-Forcing-Data-ERA-Interim (WFDEI) climate data: temperature, specific humidity, surface air pressure, and water vapor pressure} These elements are implemented into a complex network. Nodes inside the network represent airports. Each single node is equipped with its own SIR/SEIR compartmental model with node specific attributes. Edges between those nodes represent direct flight connections that allow infected individuals to move between linked nodes. Therefore the interaction of the set of unique SIR models creates the model dynamics we will analyze. To better figure out the influence on climate change on disease spreading patterns, we focus on Influenza-like-Illnesses (ILI). The transmission rate of ILI has a dependency on climate parameters like humidity and temperature. Even small changes of environmental variables can trigger significant differences in the global outbreak behavior. Apart from the direct

  5. Global, regional and national levels and trends of preterm birth rates for 1990 to 2014: protocol for development of World Health Organization estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, Joshua P; Chawanpaiboon, Saifon; Watananirun, Kanokwaroon; Lumbiganon, Pisake; Petzold, Max; Moller, Ann-Beth; Thinkhamrop, Jadsada; Laopaiboon, Malinee; Seuc, Armando H; Hogan, Daniel; Tunçalp, Ozge; Allanson, Emma; Betrán, Ana Pilar; Bonet, Mercedes; Oladapo, Olufemi T; Gülmezoglu, A Metin

    2016-06-17

    The official WHO estimates of preterm birth are an essential global resource for assessing the burden of preterm birth and developing public health programmes and policies. This protocol describes the methods that will be used to identify, critically appraise and analyse all eligible preterm birth data, in order to develop global, regional and national level estimates of levels and trends in preterm birth rates for the period 1990 - 2014. We will conduct a systematic review of civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) data on preterm birth for all WHO Member States, via national Ministries of Health and Statistics Offices. For Member States with absent, limited or lower-quality CRVS data, a systematic review of surveys and/or research studies will be conducted. Modelling will be used to develop country, regional and global rates for 2014, with time trends for Member States where sufficient data are available. Member States will be invited to review the methodology and provide additional eligible data via a country consultation before final estimates are developed and disseminated. This research will be used to generate estimates on the burden of preterm birth globally for 1990 to 2014. We invite feedback on the methodology described, and call on the public health community to submit pertinent data for consideration. Registered at PROSPERO CRD42015027439 CONTACT: pretermbirth@who.int.

  6. On the role of radiation and dimensionality in predicting flow opposed flame spread over thin fuels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Chenthil; Kumar, Amit

    2012-06-01

    In this work a flame-spread model is formulated in three dimensions to simulate opposed flow flame spread over thin solid fuels. The flame-spread model is coupled to a three-dimensional gas radiation model. The experiments [1] on downward spread and zero gravity quiescent spread over finite width thin fuel are simulated by flame-spread models in both two and three dimensions to assess the role of radiation and effect of dimensionality on the prediction of the flame-spread phenomena. It is observed that while radiation plays only a minor role in normal gravity downward spread, in zero gravity quiescent spread surface radiation loss holds the key to correct prediction of low oxygen flame spread rate and quenching limit. The present three-dimensional simulations show that even in zero gravity gas radiation affects flame spread rate only moderately (as much as 20% at 100% oxygen) as the heat feedback effect exceeds the radiation loss effect only moderately. However, the two-dimensional model with the gas radiation model badly over-predicts the zero gravity flame spread rate due to under estimation of gas radiation loss to the ambient surrounding. The two-dimensional model was also found to be inadequate for predicting the zero gravity flame attributes, like the flame length and the flame width, correctly. The need for a three-dimensional model was found to be indispensable for consistently describing the zero gravity flame-spread experiments [1] (including flame spread rate and flame size) especially at high oxygen levels (>30%). On the other hand it was observed that for the normal gravity downward flame spread for oxygen levels up to 60%, the two-dimensional model was sufficient to predict flame spread rate and flame size reasonably well. Gas radiation is seen to increase the three-dimensional effect especially at elevated oxygen levels (>30% for zero gravity and >60% for normal gravity flames).

  7. Mechanistic movement models to understand epidemic spread.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fofana, Abdou Moutalab; Hurford, Amy

    2017-05-05

    An overlooked aspect of disease ecology is considering how and why animals come into contact with one and other resulting in disease transmission. Mathematical models of disease spread frequently assume mass-action transmission, justified by stating that susceptible and infectious hosts mix readily, and foregoing any detailed description of host movement. Numerous recent studies have recorded, analysed and modelled animal movement. These movement models describe how animals move with respect to resources, conspecifics and previous movement directions and have been used to understand the conditions for the occurrence and the spread of infectious diseases when hosts perform a type of movement. Here, we summarize the effect of the different types of movement on the threshold conditions for disease spread. We identify gaps in the literature and suggest several promising directions for future research. The mechanistic inclusion of movement in epidemic models may be beneficial for the following two reasons. Firstly, the estimation of the transmission coefficient in an epidemic model is possible because animal movement data can be used to estimate the rate of contacts between conspecifics. Secondly, unsuccessful transmission events, where a susceptible host contacts an infectious host but does not become infected can be quantified. Following an outbreak, this enables disease ecologists to identify 'near misses' and to explore possible alternative epidemic outcomes given shifts in ecological or immunological parameters.This article is part of the themed issue 'Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  8. Dynamics of cell area and force during spreading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brill-Karniely, Yifat; Nisenholz, Noam; Rajendran, Kavitha; Dang, Quynh; Krishnan, Ramaswamy; Zemel, Assaf

    2014-12-16

    Experiments on human pulmonary artery endothelial cells are presented to show that cell area and the force exerted on a substrate increase simultaneously, but with different rates during spreading; rapid-force increase systematically occurred several minutes past initial spreading. We examine this theoretically and present three complementary mechanisms that may accompany the development of lamellar stress during spreading and underlie the observed behavior. These include: 1), the dynamics of cytoskeleton assembly at the cell basis; 2), the strengthening of acto-myosin forces in response to the generated lamellar stresses; and 3), the passive strain-stiffening of the cytoskeleton. Copyright © 2014 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ren, Guangming, E-mail: wangxy@dlut.edu.cn, E-mail: ren-guang-ming@163.com [School of Electronic and Information, Guangdong Polytechnic Normal University, Guangzhou 510665 (China); Faculty of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China); Wang, Xingyuan, E-mail: wangxy@dlut.edu.cn, E-mail: ren-guang-ming@163.com [Faculty of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China)

    2014-06-15

    The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold q{sub c}. The epidemic will survive when q > q{sub c} and die when q < q{sub c}. These results can help understanding the impacts of human travel on the epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure.

  10. Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ren, Guangming; Wang, Xingyuan

    2014-01-01

    The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold q c . The epidemic will survive when q > q c and die when q  c . These results can help understanding the impacts of human travel on the epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure

  11. Spreading dynamics in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pei, Sen; Makse, Hernán A.

    2013-12-01

    Searching for influential spreaders in complex networks is an issue of great significance for applications across various domains, ranging from epidemic control, innovation diffusion, viral marketing, and social movement to idea propagation. In this paper, we first display some of the most important theoretical models that describe spreading processes, and then discuss the problem of locating both the individual and multiple influential spreaders respectively. Recent approaches in these two topics are presented. For the identification of privileged single spreaders, we summarize several widely used centralities, such as degree, betweenness centrality, PageRank, k-shell, etc. We investigate the empirical diffusion data in a large scale online social community—LiveJournal. With this extensive dataset, we find that various measures can convey very distinct information of nodes. Of all the users in the LiveJournal social network, only a small fraction of them are involved in spreading. For the spreading processes in LiveJournal, while degree can locate nodes participating in information diffusion with higher probability, k-shell is more effective in finding nodes with a large influence. Our results should provide useful information for designing efficient spreading strategies in reality.

  12. Spreading dynamics in complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pei, Sen; Makse, Hernán A

    2013-01-01

    Searching for influential spreaders in complex networks is an issue of great significance for applications across various domains, ranging from epidemic control, innovation diffusion, viral marketing, and social movement to idea propagation. In this paper, we first display some of the most important theoretical models that describe spreading processes, and then discuss the problem of locating both the individual and multiple influential spreaders respectively. Recent approaches in these two topics are presented. For the identification of privileged single spreaders, we summarize several widely used centralities, such as degree, betweenness centrality, PageRank, k-shell, etc. We investigate the empirical diffusion data in a large scale online social community—LiveJournal. With this extensive dataset, we find that various measures can convey very distinct information of nodes. Of all the users in the LiveJournal social network, only a small fraction of them are involved in spreading. For the spreading processes in LiveJournal, while degree can locate nodes participating in information diffusion with higher probability, k-shell is more effective in finding nodes with a large influence. Our results should provide useful information for designing efficient spreading strategies in reality. (paper)

  13. Dual polarized, heat spreading rectenna

    Science.gov (United States)

    Epp, Larry W. (Inventor); Khan, Abdur R. (Inventor); Smith, R. Peter (Inventor); Smith, Hugh K. (Inventor)

    1999-01-01

    An aperture coupled patch splits energy from two different polarization components to different locations to spread heat. In addition, there is no physical electrical connection between the slot, patch and circuitry. The circuitry is located under a ground plane which shields against harmonic radiation back to the RF source.

  14. FACTORS INFLUENCING YIELD SPREADS OF THE MALAYSIAN BONDS

    OpenAIRE

    Norliza Ahmad; Joriah Muhammad; Tajul Ariffin Masron

    2009-01-01

    Malaysian bond market is developing rapidly but not much is understood in terms of macroeconomic factors that could influence the yield spread of the Ringgit Malaysian denominated bonds. Based on a multifactor model, this paper examines the impact of four macroeconomic factors namely: Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI), Industry Production Index (IPI), Consumer Price Index (CPI) and interest rates (IR) on bond yield spread of the Malaysian Government Securities (MGS) and Corporate Bonds (CBs...

  15. Global Delivery Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manning, Stephan; Larsen, Marcus M.; Bharati, Pratyush

    2013-01-01

    This article examines antecedents and performance implications of global delivery models (GDMs) in global business services. GDMs require geographically distributed operations to exploit both proximity to clients and time-zone spread for efficient service delivery. We propose and empirically show...

  16. Globalization and democracy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DEEPAK NAYYAR

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACTThe gathering momentum of globalization in the world economy has coincided with the spread of political democracy across countries. Economies have become global. But politics remains national. This essay explores the relationship between globalization and democracy, which is neither linear nor characterized by structural rigidities. It seeks to analyze how globalization might constrain degrees of freedom for nation states and space for democratic politics, and how political democracy within countries might exercise some checks and balances on markets and globalization. The essential argument is that the relationship between globalization and democracy is dialectical and does not conform to ideological caricatures.

  17. Global financial crisis, banking crisis and first country risk in the viewpoint of domestic risk rating agencies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dr.Sc. Ingrid Shuli

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available In a period of dire financial crisis, with which all countries seem to cope, it seemed interesting to analyse the assessment of the risk for our country, viewed from the vantage point of our domestic rating agencies, but also compared to assessments made to our country by international rating agencies, such as Moody’s rating agency, Standard & Poor rating agency, Fitch ratings agency etc. The objective of this study is to recognize indicators and factors affecting the risk assessment and rating of a country, and evaluate whether there has been an impact of the financial crisis faced by other countries in the rating given to Albanian by domestic and foreign agencies. We stopped at the history of earlier financial crisis development to understand bewtter what is happening in this financial crisis. We shall develop upon a wide existing literature, and a range of credible resources such as the IMF, the World Bank, the International Institute of Finance, Economic Intelligence Unit, and local official data sources, eg. The Bank of Albania and INSTAT.

  18. A Conceptual Model for Projecting Coccolithophorid Growth, Calcification and Photosynthetic Carbon Fixation Rates in Response to Global Ocean Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natasha A. Gafar

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Temperature, light and carbonate chemistry all influence the growth, calcification and photosynthetic rates of coccolithophores to a similar degree. There have been multiple attempts to project the responses of coccolithophores to changes in carbonate chemistry, but the interaction with light and temperature remains elusive. Here we devise a simple conceptual model to derive a fit equation for coccolithophorid growth, photosynthetic and calcification rates in response to simultaneous changes in carbonate chemistry, temperature and light conditions. The fit equation is able to account for up to 88% of the variability in measured metabolic rates. Equation projections indicate that temperature, light and carbonate chemistry all have different modulating effects on both optimal growth conditions and the sensitivity of responses to extreme environmental conditions. Calculations suggest that a single extreme environmental condition (CO2, temperature, light will reduce maximum rates regardless of how optimal the other environmental conditions may be. Thus, while the response of coccolithophores to ocean change depends on multiple variables, the one which is least optimal will have the most impact on overall rates. Finally, responses to ocean change are usually reported in terms of cellular rates. However, changes in cellular rates can be a poor predictor for assessing changes in production at the community level. We therefore introduce a new metric, the calcium carbonate production potential (CCPP, which combines the independent effects of changes in growth rate and cellular calcium carbonate content to assess how environmental changes will impact coccolith production. Direct comparison of CO2 impacts on cellular CaCO3 production rates and CCPP shows that while the former is still at 45% of its pre-industrial capacity at 1,000 μatm, the latter is reduced to 10%.

  19. Emergence and spreading potential of Zika virus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alvaro Fajardo

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Zika virus (ZIKV is an arthropod-borne Flavivirus (family Flaviviridae closely related to dengue, yellow fever and West Nile viruses. ZIKV remained neglected, confined to enzootic transmission cycles in Africa and Asia, until the first significant outbreak was reported in Micronesia in 2007. Subsequent epidemics of growing incidence occurred in French Polynesia and other South Pacific Islands, and recently, in the Americas. The latter and currently ongoing outbreak of unprecedented incidence revealed the association of ZIKV infection with the occurrence of severe congenital malformations and neurological diseases, leading to a widespread concern about its potential to pose a global public health threat. Serological and molecular data suggest that the genetic and geographic diversification of ZIKV may be greatly underestimated. Here we discuss several ecological and epidemiological aspects, together with the evolutionary processes that may have driven the emergence and abrupt spread of ZIKV in the Americas.

  20. A qualitative comparison of fire spread models incorporating wind and slope effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    David R. Weise; Gregory S. Biging

    1997-01-01

    Wind velocity and slope are two critical variables that affect wildland fire rate of spread. The effects of these variables on rate of spread are often combined in rate-of-spread models using vector addition. The various methods used to combine wind and slope effects have seldom been validated or compared due to differences in the models or to lack of data. In this...

  1. AMSR-E/Aqua L2B Global Swath Rain Rate/Type GSFC Profiling Algorithm V002

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The AMSR-E/Aqua Level-2B rain product includes instantaneous rain rate and rain type over ice-free and snow-free land and ocean between 70 degrees north and south...

  2. Variation in stem mortality rates determines patterns of above-ground biomass in Amazonian forests: implications for dynamic global vegetation models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Michelle O; Galbraith, David; Gloor, Manuel; De Deurwaerder, Hannes; Guimberteau, Matthieu; Rammig, Anja; Thonicke, Kirsten; Verbeeck, Hans; von Randow, Celso; Monteagudo, Abel; Phillips, Oliver L; Brienen, Roel J W; Feldpausch, Ted R; Lopez Gonzalez, Gabriela; Fauset, Sophie; Quesada, Carlos A; Christoffersen, Bradley; Ciais, Philippe; Sampaio, Gilvan; Kruijt, Bart; Meir, Patrick; Moorcroft, Paul; Zhang, Ke; Alvarez-Davila, Esteban; Alves de Oliveira, Atila; Amaral, Ieda; Andrade, Ana; Aragao, Luiz E O C; Araujo-Murakami, Alejandro; Arets, Eric J M M; Arroyo, Luzmila; Aymard, Gerardo A; Baraloto, Christopher; Barroso, Jocely; Bonal, Damien; Boot, Rene; Camargo, Jose; Chave, Jerome; Cogollo, Alvaro; Cornejo Valverde, Fernando; Lola da Costa, Antonio C; Di Fiore, Anthony; Ferreira, Leandro; Higuchi, Niro; Honorio, Euridice N; Killeen, Tim J; Laurance, Susan G; Laurance, William F; Licona, Juan; Lovejoy, Thomas; Malhi, Yadvinder; Marimon, Bia; Marimon, Ben Hur; Matos, Darley C L; Mendoza, Casimiro; Neill, David A; Pardo, Guido; Peña-Claros, Marielos; Pitman, Nigel C A; Poorter, Lourens; Prieto, Adriana; Ramirez-Angulo, Hirma; Roopsind, Anand; Rudas, Agustin; Salomao, Rafael P; Silveira, Marcos; Stropp, Juliana; Ter Steege, Hans; Terborgh, John; Thomas, Raquel; Toledo, Marisol; Torres-Lezama, Armando; van der Heijden, Geertje M F; Vasquez, Rodolfo; Guimarães Vieira, Ima Cèlia; Vilanova, Emilio; Vos, Vincent A; Baker, Timothy R

    2016-12-01

    Understanding the processes that determine above-ground biomass (AGB) in Amazonian forests is important for predicting the sensitivity of these ecosystems to environmental change and for designing and evaluating dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). AGB is determined by inputs from woody productivity [woody net primary productivity (NPP)] and the rate at which carbon is lost through tree mortality. Here, we test whether two direct metrics of tree mortality (the absolute rate of woody biomass loss and the rate of stem mortality) and/or woody NPP, control variation in AGB among 167 plots in intact forest across Amazonia. We then compare these relationships and the observed variation in AGB and woody NPP with the predictions of four DGVMs. The observations show that stem mortality rates, rather than absolute rates of woody biomass loss, are the most important predictor of AGB, which is consistent with the importance of stand size structure for determining spatial variation in AGB. The relationship between stem mortality rates and AGB varies among different regions of Amazonia, indicating that variation in wood density and height/diameter relationships also influences AGB. In contrast to previous findings, we find that woody NPP is not correlated with stem mortality rates and is weakly positively correlated with AGB. Across the four models, basin-wide average AGB is similar to the mean of the observations. However, the models consistently overestimate woody NPP and poorly represent the spatial patterns of both AGB and woody NPP estimated using plot data. In marked contrast to the observations, DGVMs typically show strong positive relationships between woody NPP and AGB. Resolving these differences will require incorporating forest size structure, mechanistic models of stem mortality and variation in functional composition in DGVMs. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Suicide rate in relation to the Human Development Index and other health related factors: A global ecological study from 91 countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salman Khazaei

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available There has been no worldwide ecological study on suicide as a global major public health problem. This study aimed to identify the variations in suicide specific rates using the Human Development Index (HDI and some health related variables among countries around the world. In this ecological study, we obtained the data from the World Bank Report 2013. The analysis was restricted to 91 countries for which both the epidemiologic data from the suicide rates and HDI were available. Overall, the global prevalence of suicide rate was 10.5 (95% confidence intervals: 8.8, 12.2 per 100,000 individuals, which significantly varied according to gender (16.3 in males vs. 4.6 in females, p < 0.001 and different levels of human development (11.64/100,000 individuals in very high development countries, 7.93/100,000 individuals in medium development countries, and 13.94/100,000 individuals in high development countries, p = 0.004. In conclusion, the suicide rate varies greatly between countries with different development levels. Our findings also suggest that male gender and HDI components are associated with an increased risk of suicide behaviors. Hence, detecting population subgroups with a high suicide risk and reducing the inequality of socioeconomic determinants are necessary to prevent this disorder around the world.

  4. Impact of international and local conditions on sovereign bond spreads: International evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Selma Izadi

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the effect of international and domestic factors on the sovereign bond spreads for 22 developed countries in North America, Europe and Pacific Rim regions. First, for all the regions the impact of global factors on the sovereign bond spreads is more intense than regional factors. Second, the findings confirm that for the bond spreads of each region over its domestic government bonds, the countries’ local fundamentals are better determinants of the spreads compared to the spread over US government bonds as a safe haven. Third, the influence of worldwide factors in the Eurozone compared to other regions bond spreads is less. Fourth, the relationship of the market sentiment and the investor risk aversion with the sovereign bond spreads of all regions is positive. Equity market volatility plays significant role in yield speads in international bond markets.

  5. Effects of rewiring strategies on information spreading in complex dynamic networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ally, Abdulla F.; Zhang, Ning

    2018-04-01

    Recent advances in networks and communication services have attracted much interest to understand information spreading in social networks. Consequently, numerous studies have been devoted to provide effective and accurate models for mimicking information spreading. However, knowledge on how to spread information faster and more widely remains a contentious issue. Yet, most existing works are based on static networks which limit the reality of dynamism of entities that participate in information spreading. Using the SIR epidemic model, this study explores and compares effects of two rewiring models (Fermi-Dirac and Linear functions) on information spreading in scale free and small world networks. Our results show that for all the rewiring strategies, the spreading influence replenishes with time but stabilizes in a steady state at later time-steps. This means that information spreading takes-off during the initial spreading steps, after which the spreading prevalence settles toward its equilibrium, with majority of the population having recovered and thus, no longer affecting the spreading. Meanwhile, rewiring strategy based on Fermi-Dirac distribution function in one way or another impedes the spreading process, however, the structure of the networks mimic the spreading, even with a low spreading rate. The worst case can be when the spreading rate is extremely small. The results emphasize that despite a big role of such networks in mimicking the spreading, the role of the parameters cannot be simply ignored. Apparently, the probability of giant degree neighbors being informed grows much faster with the rewiring strategy of linear function compared to that of Fermi-Dirac distribution function. Clearly, rewiring model based on linear function generates the fastest spreading across the networks. Therefore, if we are interested in speeding up the spreading process in stochastic modeling, linear function may play a pivotal role.

  6. Final scientific report for DOE award title: Improving the Representation of Ice Sedimentation Rates in Global Climate Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mitchell, David L. [Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV (United States)

    2013-09-05

    It is well known that cirrus clouds play a major role in regulating the earth’s climate, but the details of how this works are just beginning to be understood. This project targeted the main property of cirrus clouds that influence climate processes; the ice fall speed. That is, this project improves the representation of the mass-weighted ice particle fall velocity, Vm, in climate models, used to predict future climate on global and regional scales. Prior to 2007, the dominant sizes of ice particles in cirrus clouds were poorly understood, making it virtually impossible to predict how cirrus clouds interact with sunlight and thermal radiation. Due to several studies investigating the performance of optical probes used to measure the ice particle size distribution (PSD), as well as the remote sensing results from our last ARM project, it is now well established that the anomalously high concentrations of small ice crystals often reported prior to 2007 were measurement artifacts. Advances in the design and data processing of optical probes have greatly reduced these ice artifacts that resulted from the shattering of ice particles on the probe tips and/or inlet tube, and PSD measurements from one of these improved probes (the 2-dimensional Stereo or 2D-S probe) are utilized in this project to parameterize Vm for climate models. Our original plan in the proposal was to parameterize the ice PSD (in terms of temperature and ice water content) and ice particle mass and projected area (in terms of mass- and area-dimensional power laws or m-D/A-D expressions) since these are the microphysical properties that determine Vm, and then proceed to calculate Vm from these parameterized properties. But the 2D-S probe directly measures ice particle projected area and indirectly estimates ice particle mass for each size bin. It soon became apparent that the original plan would introduce more uncertainty in the Vm calculations

  7. Global incidence and case fatality rate of pulmonary embolism following major surgery: a protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Temgoua, Mazou N; Tochie, Joel Noutakdie; Noubiap, Jean Jacques; Agbor, Valirie Ndip; Danwang, Celestin; Endomba, Francky Teddy A; Nkemngu, Njinkeng J

    2017-12-04

    Pulmonary embolism (PE) is a life-threatening condition common after major surgery. Although the high incidence (0.3-30%) and mortality rate (16.9-31%) of PE in patients undergoing major surgical procedures is apparent from findings of contemporary observational studies, there is a lack of a summary and meta-analysis data on the epidemiology of postoperative PE in this same regard. Hence, we propose to conduct the first systematic review to summarise existing data on the global incidence, determinants and case fatality rate of PE following major surgery. Electronic databases including MEDLINE, EMBASE, SCOPUS, WHO global health library (including LILACS), Web of Science and Google scholar from inception to April 30, 2017, will be searched for cohort studies reporting on the incidence, determinants and case fatality rate of PE occurring after major surgery. Data from grey literature will also be assessed. Two investigators will independently perform study selection and data extraction. Included studies will be evaluated for risk of bias. Appropriate meta-analytic methods will be used to pool incidence and case fatality rate estimates from studies with identical features, globally and by subgroups of major surgical procedures. Random-effects and risk ratio with 95% confidence interval will be used to summarise determinants and predictors of mortality of PE in patients undergoing major surgery. This systematic review and meta-analysis will provide the most up-to-date epidemiology of PE in patients undergoing major surgery to inform health authorities and identify further research topics based on the remaining knowledge gaps. PROSPERO CRD42017065126.

  8. Spreading of a granular droplet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clement, Eric; Sanchez, Ivan; Raynaud, Franck; Lanuza, Jose; Andreotti, Bruno; Aranson, Igor

    2008-03-01

    The influence of controlled vibrations on the granular rheology is investigated in a specifically designed experiment in which a granular film spreads under the action of horizontal vibrations. A nonlinear diffusion equation is derived theoretically that describes the evolution of the deposit shape. A self-similar parabolic shape (the``granular droplet'') and a spreading dynamics are predicted that both agree quantitatively with the experimental results. The theoretical analysis is used to extract effective friction coefficients between the base and the granular layer under sustained and controlled vibrations. A shear thickening regime characteristic of dense granular flows is evidenced at low vibration energy, both for glass beads and natural sand. Conversely, shear thinning is observed at high agitation.

  9. Information spread in networks: Games, optimal control, and stabilization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khanafer, Ali

    on the network. To this end, we propose a distributed version of the classical logic-based supervisory control scheme. Given a network of agents whose dynamics contain unknown parameters, the distributed supervisory control scheme is used to assist the agents to converge to a certain set-point without requiring them to have explicit knowledge of that set-point. Unlike the classical supervisory control scheme where a centralized supervisor makes switching decisions among the candidate controllers, in our scheme, each agent is equipped with a local supervisor that switches among the available controllers. The switching decisions made at a certain agent depend only on the information from its neighboring agents. We provide sufficient conditions for stabilization and apply our framework to the distributed averaging problem in the presence of large modeling uncertainty. For infected networks, we study the stability properties of a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) diffusion model, so-called the n-intertwined Markov model, over arbitrary network topologies. Similar to the majority of infection spread dynamics, this model exhibits a threshold phenomenon. When the curing rates in the network are high, the all-healthy state is the unique equilibrium over the network. Otherwise, an endemic equilibrium state emerges, where some infection remains within the network. Using notions from positive systems theory, we provide conditions for the global asymptotic stability of the equilibrium points in both cases over strongly and weakly connected directed networks based on the value of the basic reproduction number, a fundamental quantity in the study of epidemics. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the n-intertwined Markov model can be viewed as a best-response dynamical system of a concave game among the nodes. This characterization allows us to cast new infection spread dynamics; additionally, we provide a sufficient condition, for the global convergence to the all-healthy state

  10. Slip of Spreading Viscoplastic Droplets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jalaal, Maziyar; Balmforth, Neil J; Stoeber, Boris

    2015-11-10

    The spreading of axisymmetric viscoplastic droplets extruded slowly on glass surfaces is studied experimentally using shadowgraphy and swept-field confocal microscopy. The microscopy furnishes vertical profiles of the radial velocity using particle image velocimetry (PIV) with neutrally buoyant tracers seeded in the fluid. Experiments were conducted for two complex fluids: aqueous solutions of Carbopol and xanthan gum. On untreated glass surfaces, PIV demonstrates that both fluids experience a significant amount of effective slip. The experiments were repeated on glass that had been treated to feature positive surface charges, thereby promoting adhesion between the negatively charged polymeric constituents of the fluids and the glass surface. The Carbopol and xanthan gum droplets spread more slowly on the treated surface and to a smaller radial distance. PIV demonstrated that this reduced spreading was associated with a substantial reduction in slip. For Carbopol, the effective slip could be eliminated entirely to within the precision of the PIV measurements; the reduction in slip was less effective for xanthan gum, with a weak slip velocity remaining noticeable.

  11. Wave-like spread of Ebola Zaire.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available In the past decade the Zaire strain of Ebola virus (ZEBOV has emerged repeatedly into human populations in central Africa and caused massive die-offs of gorillas and chimpanzees. We tested the view that emergence events are independent and caused by ZEBOV variants that have been long resident at each locality. Phylogenetic analyses place the earliest known outbreak at Yambuku, Democratic Republic of Congo, very near to the root of the ZEBOV tree, suggesting that viruses causing all other known outbreaks evolved from a Yambuku-like virus after 1976. The tendency for earlier outbreaks to be directly ancestral to later outbreaks suggests that outbreaks are epidemiologically linked and may have occurred at the front of an advancing wave. While the ladder-like phylogenetic structure could also bear the signature of positive selection, our statistical power is too weak to reach a conclusion in this regard. Distances among outbreaks indicate a spread rate of about 50 km per year that remains consistent across spatial scales. Viral evolution is clocklike, and sequences show a high level of small-scale spatial structure. Genetic similarity decays with distance at roughly the same rate at all spatial scales. Our analyses suggest that ZEBOV has recently spread across the region rather than being long persistent at each outbreak locality. Controlling the impact of Ebola on wild apes and human populations may be more feasible than previously recognized.

  12. Epidemic Spreading with Heterogeneous Awareness on Human Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanling Lu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The spontaneous awareness behavioral responses of individuals have a significant impact on epidemic spreading. In this paper, a modified Susceptible-Alert-Infected-Susceptible (SAIS epidemic model with heterogeneous awareness is presented to study epidemic spreading in human networks and the impact of heterogeneous awareness on epidemic dynamics. In this model, when susceptible individuals receive awareness information about the presence of epidemic from their infected neighbor nodes, they will become alert individuals with heterogeneous awareness rate. Theoretical analysis and numerical simulations show that heterogeneous awareness can enhance the epidemic threshold with certain conditions and reduce the scale of virus outbreaks compared with no awareness. What is more, for the same awareness parameter, it also shows that heterogeneous awareness can slow effectively the spreading size and does not delay the arrival time of epidemic spreading peak compared with homogeneous awareness.

  13. Suicide rate in relation to the Human Development Index and other health related factors: A global ecological study from 91 countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khazaei, Salman; Armanmehr, Vajihe; Nematollahi, Shahrzad; Rezaeian, Shahab; Khazaei, Somayeh

    2017-06-01

    There has been no worldwide ecological study on suicide as a global major public health problem. This study aimed to identify the variations in suicide specific rates using the Human Development Index (HDI) and some health related variables among countries around the world. In this ecological study, we obtained the data from the World Bank Report 2013. The analysis was restricted to 91 countries for which both the epidemiologic data from the suicide rates and HDI were available. Overall, the global prevalence of suicide rate was 10.5 (95% confidence intervals: 8.8, 12.2) per 100,000 individuals, which significantly varied according to gender (16.3 in males vs. 4.6 in females, pgender and HDI components are associated with an increased risk of suicide behaviors. Hence, detecting population subgroups with a high suicide risk and reducing the inequality of socioeconomic determinants are necessary to prevent this disorder around the world. Copyright © 2017 Ministry of Health, Saudi Arabia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Information spread of emergency events: path searching on social networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Weihui; Hu, Hongzhi; Wu, Tunan; Dai, Yonghui

    2014-01-01

    Emergency has attracted global attentions of government and the public, and it will easily trigger a series of serious social problems if it is not supervised effectively in the dissemination process. In the Internet world, people communicate with each other and form various virtual communities based on social networks, which lead to a complex and fast information spread pattern of emergency events. This paper collects Internet data based on data acquisition and topic detection technology, analyzes the process of information spread on social networks, describes the diffusions and impacts of that information from the perspective of random graph, and finally seeks the key paths through an improved IBF algorithm. Application cases have shown that this algorithm can search the shortest spread paths efficiently, which may help us to guide and control the information dissemination of emergency events on early warning.

  15. Information Spread of Emergency Events: Path Searching on Social Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weihui Dai

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Emergency has attracted global attentions of government and the public, and it will easily trigger a series of serious social problems if it is not supervised effectively in the dissemination process. In the Internet world, people communicate with each other and form various virtual communities based on social networks, which lead to a complex and fast information spread pattern of emergency events. This paper collects Internet data based on data acquisition and topic detection technology, analyzes the process of information spread on social networks, describes the diffusions and impacts of that information from the perspective of random graph, and finally seeks the key paths through an improved IBF algorithm. Application cases have shown that this algorithm can search the shortest spread paths efficiently, which may help us to guide and control the information dissemination of emergency events on early warning.

  16. Global survey of mRNA levels and decay rates of Chlamydia trachomatis trachoma and lymphogranuloma venereum biovars

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rita Ferreira

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Interpreting the intricate bacterial transcriptomics implies understanding the dynamic relationship established between de novo transcription and the degradation of transcripts. Here, we performed a comparative overview of gene expression levels and mRNA decay rates for different-biovar (trachoma and lymphogranuloma venereum strains of the obligate intracellular bacterium Chlamydia trachomatis. By using RNA-sequencing to measure gene expression levels at mid developmental stage and mRNA decay rates upon rifampicin-based transcription blockage, we observed that: i 60–70% of the top-50 expressed genes encode proteins with unknown function and proteins involved in “Translation, ribosomal structure and biogenesis” for all strains; ii the expression ranking by genes' functional categories was in general concordant among different-biovar strains; iii the median of the half-life time (t1/2 values of transcripts were 15–17 min, indicating that the degree of transcripts’ stability seems to correlate with the bacterial intracellular life-style, as these values are considerably higher than the ones observed in other studies for facultative intracellular and free-living bacteria; iv transcript decay rates were highly heterogeneous within each C. trachomatis strain and did not correlate with steady-state expression levels; v only at very few instances (essentially at gene functional category level was possible to unveil dissimilarities potentially underlying phenotypic differences between biovars. In summary, the unveiled transcriptomic scenario, marked by a general lack of correlation between transcript production and degradation and a huge inter-transcript heterogeneity in decay rates, likely reflects the challenges underlying the unique biphasic developmental cycle of C. trachomatis and its intricate interactions with the human host, which probably exacerbate the complexity of the bacterial transcription regulation.

  17. Global survey of mRNA levels and decay rates of Chlamydia trachomatis trachoma and lymphogranuloma venereum biovars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, Rita; Borges, Vítor; Borrego, Maria José; Gomes, João Paulo

    2017-07-01

    Interpreting the intricate bacterial transcriptomics implies understanding the dynamic relationship established between de novo transcription and the degradation of transcripts. Here, we performed a comparative overview of gene expression levels and mRNA decay rates for different-biovar (trachoma and lymphogranuloma venereum) strains of the obligate intracellular bacterium Chlamydia trachomatis . By using RNA-sequencing to measure gene expression levels at mid developmental stage and mRNA decay rates upon rifampicin-based transcription blockage, we observed that: i ) 60-70% of the top-50 expressed genes encode proteins with unknown function and proteins involved in "Translation, ribosomal structure and biogenesis" for all strains; ii ) the expression ranking by genes' functional categories was in general concordant among different-biovar strains; iii ) the median of the half-life time (t 1/2 ) values of transcripts were 15-17 min, indicating that the degree of transcripts' stability seems to correlate with the bacterial intracellular life-style, as these values are considerably higher than the ones observed in other studies for facultative intracellular and free-living bacteria; iv ) transcript decay rates were highly heterogeneous within each C. trachomatis strain and did not correlate with steady-state expression levels; v ) only at very few instances (essentially at gene functional category level) was possible to unveil dissimilarities potentially underlying phenotypic differences between biovars. In summary, the unveiled transcriptomic scenario, marked by a general lack of correlation between transcript production and degradation and a huge inter-transcript heterogeneity in decay rates, likely reflects the challenges underlying the unique biphasic developmental cycle of C. trachomatis and its intricate interactions with the human host, which probably exacerbate the complexity of the bacterial transcription regulation.

  18. Initial mass function and global rates of mass, momentum, and energy input to the interstellar medium via stellar winds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Buren, D.

    1985-01-01

    Using the Michigan HD catalog volumes I--III, the all-sky sample of O stars of Garmany, Conti, and Chiosi, Lucke's map of the distribution of obscuring material within 2 kpc, and an amalgam of recent stellar evolution calculations, the number of stars formed kpc -2 yr -1 [log (M/M/sub sun/)] -1 (IMF) is psi = 5.4 x 10 -4 (M/M/sub sun/)/sup -1.03/. A calibration of mass-loss rates with stellar parameters based on published data yields m = 2.0 x 10 -13 (L/L/sub sun/)/sup 1.25/M/sub sun/ yr -1 . Energy injection into the ISM by winds and supernovae balances mechanical energy dissipation via cloud-cloud collisions. For stars M>5 M/sub sun/ there is near balance between the rate at which mass is turned into stars and the rate at which it is lost from them, implying small remnant masses

  19. Noncommunicable Diseases: Three Decades Of Global Data Show A Mixture Of Increases And Decreases In Mortality Rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, Mohammed K; Jaacks, Lindsay M; Kowalski, Alysse J; Siegel, Karen R; Ezzati, Majid

    2015-09-01

    Noncommunicable diseases are the leading health concerns of the modern era, accounting for two-thirds of global deaths, half of all disability, and rapidly growing costs. To provide a contemporary overview of the burdens caused by noncommunicable diseases, we compiled mortality data reported by authorities in forty-nine countries for atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases; diabetes; chronic respiratory diseases; and lung, colon, breast, cervical, liver, and stomach cancers. From 1980 to 2012, on average across all countries, mortality for cardiovascular disease, stomach cancer, and cervical cancer declined, while mortality for diabetes, liver cancer, and female chronic respiratory disease and lung cancer increased. In contrast to the relatively steep cardiovascular and cancer mortality declines observed in high-income countries, mortality for cardiovascular disease and chronic respiratory disease was flat in most low- and middle-income countries, which also experienced increasing breast and colon cancer mortality. These divergent mortality patterns likely reflect differences in timing and magnitude of risk exposures, health care, and policies to counteract the diseases. Improving both the coverage and the accuracy of mortality documentation in populous low- and middle-income countries is a priority, as is the need to rigorously evaluate societal-level interventions. Furthermore, given the complex, chronic, and progressive nature of noncommunicable diseases, policies and programs to prevent and control them need to be multifaceted and long-term, as returns on investment accrue with time. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

  20. Reverse preferential spread in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toyoizumi, Hiroshi; Tani, Seiichi; Miyoshi, Naoto; Okamoto, Yoshio

    2012-08-01

    Large-degree nodes may have a larger influence on the network, but they can be bottlenecks for spreading information since spreading attempts tend to concentrate on these nodes and become redundant. We discuss that the reverse preferential spread (distributing information inversely proportional to the degree of the receiving node) has an advantage over other spread mechanisms. In large uncorrelated networks, we show that the mean number of nodes that receive information under the reverse preferential spread is an upper bound among any other weight-based spread mechanisms, and this upper bound is indeed a logistic growth independent of the degree distribution.

  1. Recurrent bridgehead effects accelerate global alien ant spread

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cleo Bertelsmeier; Sébastien Ollier; Andrew M. Liebhold; Eckehard G. Brockerhoff; Darren Ward; Laurent Keller

    2018-01-01

    Biological invasions are a major threat to biological diversity, agriculture, and human health. To predict and prevent new invasions, it is crucial to develop a better understanding of the drivers of the invasion process. The analysis of 4,533 border interception events revealed that at least 51 different alien ant species were intercepted at US ports over a period of...

  2. The global spread of HIV-1 subtype B epidemic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Magiorkinis, Gkikas; Angelis, Konstantinos; Mamais, Ioannis; Katzourakis, Aris; Hatzakis, Angelos; Albert, Jan; Lawyer, Glenn; Hamouda, Osamah; Struck, Daniel; Vercauteren, Jurgen; Wensing, Annemarie; Alexiev, Ivailo; Åsjö, Birgitta; Balotta, Claudia; Gomes, Perpétua; Camacho, Ricardo J.; Coughlan, Suzie; Griskevicius, Algirdas; Grossman, Zehava; Horban, Anders; Kostrikis, Leondios G.; Lepej, Snjezana J.; Liitsola, Kirsi; Linka, Marek; Nielsen, Claus; Otelea, Dan; Paredes, Roger; Poljak, Mario; Puchhammer-Stöckl, Elizabeth; Schmit, Jean Claude; Sönnerborg, Anders; Staneková, Danica; Stanojevic, Maja; Stylianou, Dora C.; Boucher, Charles A B; Nikolopoulos, Georgios; Vasylyeva, Tetyana; Friedman, Samuel R.; van de Vijver, David; Angarano, Gioacchino; Chaix, Marie Laure; de Luca, Andrea; Korn, Klaus; Loveday, Clive; Soriano, Vincent; Yerly, Sabine; Zazzi, Mauricio; Vandamme, Anne Mieke; Paraskevis, Dimitrios

    2016-01-01

    Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) was discovered in the early 1980s when the virus had already established a pandemic. For at least three decades the epidemic in the Western World has been dominated by subtype B infections, as part of a sub-epidemic that traveled from Africa through Haiti

  3. The global spread of HIV-1 subtype B epidemic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G. Magiorkinis (Gkikas); K. Angelis (Konstantinos); I. Mamais (Ioannis); Katzourakis, A. (Aris); A. Hatzakis (Angelos); J. Albert (Jan); Lawyer, G. (Glenn); O. Hamouda (Osamah); D. Struck (Daniel); J. Vercauteren (Jurgen); A. Wensing (Amj); I. Alexiev (Ivailo); B. Åsjö (Birgitta); C. Balotta (Claudia); Gomes, P. (Perpétua); R.J. Camacho (Ricardo Jorge); S. Coughlan (Suzie); A. Griskevicius (Algirdas); Z. Grossman (Zehava); Horban, A. (Anders); L.G. Kostrikis (Leondios); Lepej, S.J. (Snjezana J.); K. Liitsola (Kirsi); M. Linka (Marek); C. Nielsen; D. Otelea (Dan); R. Paredes (Roger); M. Poljak (Mario); E. Puchhammer-Stöckl (Elisabeth); J.C. Schmit; A. Sonnerborg (Anders); D. Stanekova (Danica); M. Stanojevic (Maja); Stylianou, D.C. (Dora C.); C.A.B. Boucher (Charles); Nikolopoulos, G. (Georgios); Vasylyeva, T. (Tetyana); Friedman, S.R. (Samuel R.); D.A.M.C. van de Vijver (David); G. Angarano (Guiseppe); M.L. Chaix (Marie Laure); A. de Luca (Andrea); K. Korn (Klaus); Loveday, C. (Clive); V. Soriano (Virtudes); S. Yerly (Sabine); M. Zazzi; A.M. Vandamme (Anne Mieke); D. Paraskevis (Dimitrios)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractHuman immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) was discovered in the early 1980s when the virus had already established a pandemic. For at least three decades the epidemic in the Western World has been dominated by subtype B infections, as part of a sub-epidemic that traveled from Africa

  4. Sovereign bonds in developing countries: Drivers of issuance and spreads

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea F. Presbitero

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In the last decade there has been a new wave of sovereign bond issuances in Africa. What determines the ability of developing countries to issue bonds in international capital and what explains the spreads on these bonds? This paper examines these questions using a dataset that includes 105 developing countries during the period 1995–2014. We find that a country is more likely to issue a bond when, in comparison with non-issuing peers, it is larger in economic size, has higher per capita GDP, a lower public debt, and a more effective government. Spreads on sovereign bonds are lower for countries with strong external and fiscal positions, as well as robust economic growth and government effectiveness. We also find that primary spreads for the average Sub-Saharan African issuer are higher than in other regions. With regard to global factors, our results confirm the existing evidence that issuances are more likely during periods of global liquidity and high commodity prices, especially for Sub-Saharan African countries, and spreads are higher in periods of higher market volatility.

  5. Global minimum profile error (GMPE) - a least-squares-based approach for extracting macroscopic rate coefficients for complex gas-phase chemical reactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duong, Minh V; Nguyen, Hieu T; Mai, Tam V-T; Huynh, Lam K

    2018-01-03

    Master equation/Rice-Ramsperger-Kassel-Marcus (ME/RRKM) has shown to be a powerful framework for modeling kinetic and dynamic behaviors of a complex gas-phase chemical system on a complicated multiple-species and multiple-channel potential energy surface (PES) for a wide range of temperatures and pressures. Derived from the ME time-resolved species profiles, the macroscopic or phenomenological rate coefficients are essential for many reaction engineering applications including those in combustion and atmospheric chemistry. Therefore, in this study, a least-squares-based approach named Global Minimum Profile Error (GMPE) was proposed and implemented in the MultiSpecies-MultiChannel (MSMC) code (Int. J. Chem. Kinet., 2015, 47, 564) to extract macroscopic rate coefficients for such a complicated system. The capability and limitations of the new approach were discussed in several well-defined test cases.

  6. Coding-Spreading Tradeoff in CDMA Systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bolas, Eduardo

    2002-01-01

    .... Comparing different combinations of coding and spreading with a traditional DS-CDMA, as defined in the IS-95 standard, allows the criteria to be defined for the best coding-spreading tradeoff in CDMA systems...

  7. Lexical Ambiguity: Making a Case against Spread

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, Jennifer J.; Rogness, Neal T.; Fisher, Diane G.

    2012-01-01

    We argue for decreasing the use of the word "spread" when describing the statistical idea of dispersion or variability in introductory statistics courses. In addition, we argue for increasing the use of the word "variability" as a replacement for "spread."

  8. The influence of low air pressure on horizontal flame spread over flexible polyurethane foam and correlative smoke productions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tu, Ran; Zeng, Yi; Fang, Jun; Zhang, Yongming

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Quasi two-dimensional flame spreading behavior of flexible polyurethane (FPU) foam was investigated. • Theoretical correlation of pressure effects on global burning rate was proposed. • The influence of pressure on plume and ceiling jet temperatures was studied theoretically. • Pressure effects on soot formation and CO concentration were analyzed. - Abstract: Pressure effects on quasi two-dimensional flexible polyurethane (FPU) foam flame spreading behavior, typical product concentrations, and smoke detector responses were investigated by comparative experiments under different ambient pressures of 99.8 kPa (in Hefei) and 66.5 kPa (in Lhasa), respectively. First, significant decreases of flame spreading velocity and burning rate were observed under low pressure condition. Averaged global burning rate was found to be dependent on pressure, with an exponential factor of 4/3 theoretically based on pressure modeling. Second, the maximum temperature at a given position in axial thermal plume showed insensitivity to pressure, yet the maximum temperature in ceiling jet was obviously higher. Third, the low pressure was shown to have no effect on soot particles size distribution by scan electron microscopy (SEM) imaging. However, the soot number concentration decreased with reduced pressure attributed to the much slower soot formation rate under low pressure. This result would further have an interesting influence on the response signals of photoelectric detector and ionization detector. Finally, the pressure effects on variation of CO and O_2 volume concentration were discussed. Considering the relatively small heat release rate for FPU foam selected, the CO concentration in the far-field ceiling jet low under low pressure was found to be lower for the enhanced diffusive effect.

  9. Objective structured assessment of nontechnical skills: Reliability of a global rating scale for the in-training assessment in the operating room.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dedy, Nicolas J; Szasz, Peter; Louridas, Marisa; Bonrath, Esther M; Husslein, Heinrich; Grantcharov, Teodor P

    2015-06-01

    Nontechnical skills are critical for patient safety in the operating room (OR). As a result, regulatory bodies for accreditation and certification have mandated the integration of these competencies into postgraduate education. A generally accepted approach to the in-training assessment of nontechnical skills, however, is lacking. The goal of the present study was to develop an evidence-based and reliable tool for the in-training assessment of residents' nontechnical performance in the OR. The Objective Structured Assessment of Nontechnical Skills tool was designed as a 5-point global rating scale with descriptive anchors for each item, based on existing evidence-based frameworks of nontechnical skills, as well as resident training requirements. The tool was piloted on scripted videos and refined in an iterative process. The final version was used to rate residents' performance in recorded OR crisis simulations and during live observations in the OR. A total of 37 simulations and 10 live procedures were rated. Interrater agreement was good for total mean scores, both in simulation and in the real OR, with intraclass correlation coefficients >0.90 in all settings for average and single measures. Internal consistency of the scale was high (Cronbach's alpha = 0.80). The Objective Structured Assessment of Nontechnical Skills global rating scale was developed as an evidence-based tool for the in-training assessment of residents' nontechnical performance in the OR. Unique descriptive anchors allow for a criterion-referenced assessment of performance. Good reliability was demonstrated in different settings, supporting applications in research and education. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Modelling dengue epidemic spreading with human mobility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barmak, D. H.; Dorso, C. O.; Otero, M.

    2016-04-01

    We explored the effect of human mobility on the spatio-temporal dynamics of Dengue with a stochastic model that takes into account the epidemiological dynamics of the infected mosquitoes and humans, with different mobility patterns of the human population. We observed that human mobility strongly affects the spread of infection by increasing the final size and by changing the morphology of the epidemic outbreaks. When the spreading of the disease is driven only by mosquito dispersal (flight), a main central focus expands diffusively. On the contrary, when human mobility is taken into account, multiple foci appear throughout the evolution of the outbreaks. These secondary foci generated throughout the outbreaks could be of little importance according to their mass or size compared with the largest main focus. However, the coalescence of these foci with the main one generates an effect, through which the latter develops a size greater than the one obtained in the case driven only by mosquito dispersal. This increase in growth rate due to human mobility and the coalescence of the foci are particularly relevant in temperate cities such as the city of Buenos Aires, since they give more possibilities to the outbreak to grow before the arrival of the low-temperature season. The findings of this work indicate that human mobility could be the main driving force in the dynamics of vector epidemics.

  11. Enhancement of marine cloud albedo via controlled sea spray injections: a global model study of the influence of emission rates, microphysics and transport

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Korhonen

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Modification of cloud albedo by controlled emission of sea spray particles into the atmosphere has been suggested as a possible geoengineering option to slow global warming. Previous global studies have imposed changes in cloud drop concentration in low level clouds to explore the radiative and climatic effects. Here, we use a global aerosol transport model to quantify how an imposed flux of sea spray particles affects the natural aerosol processes, the particle size distribution, and concentrations of cloud drops. We assume that the proposed fleet of vessels emits sea spray particles with a wind speed-dependent flux into four regions of persistent stratocumulus cloud off the western coasts of continents. The model results show that fractional changes in cloud drop number concentration (CDNC vary substantially between the four regions because of differences in wind speed (which affects the spray efficiency of the vessels, transport and particle deposition rates, and because of variations in aerosols from natural and anthropogenic sources. Using spray emission rates comparable to those implied by previous studies we find that the predicted CDNC changes are very small (maximum 20% and in one of the four regions even negative. The weak or negative effect is because the added particles suppress the in-cloud supersaturation and prevent existing aerosol particles from forming cloud drops. A scenario with five times higher emissions (considerably higher than previously assumed increases CDNC on average by 45–163%, but median concentrations are still below the 375 cm−3 assumed in previous studies. An inadvertent effect of the spray emissions is that sulphur dioxide concentrations are suppressed by 1–2% in the seeded regions and sulphuric acid vapour by 64–68% due to chemical reactions on the additional salt particles. The impact of this suppression on existing aerosol is negligible in the model, but should be investigated further in

  12. Understanding the spreading patterns of mobile phone viruses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Pu; Gonzalez, Marta; Hidalgo, Cesar; Barabasi, Albert-Laszlo

    2009-03-01

    Mobile viruses are little more than a nuisance today, but given our increased reliance on wireless communication, in the near future they could pose more risk than their PC based counterparts. Despite of the more than three hundred mobile viruses known so far, little is known about their spreading pattern, partly due to a lack of data on the communication and travel patterns of mobile phone users. Starting from the traffic and the communication pattern of six million mobile phone users, we model the vulnerability of mobile communications against potential virus outbreaks. We show that viruses exploiting Bluetooth and multimedia messaging services (MMS) follow markedly different spreading patterns. The Bluetooth virus can reach all susceptible handsets, but spreads relatively slowly, as its spread is driven by human mobility. In contrast, an MMS virus can spread rapidly, but because the underlying social network is fragmented, it can reach only a small fraction of all susceptible users. This difference affects both their spreading rate, the number of infected users, as well as the defense measures one needs to take to protect the system against potential viral outbreak.

  13. A Finsler geodesic spray paradigm for wildfire spread modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Markvorsen, Steen

    2015-01-01

    represents the local fire templates. The ‘paradigm’ part of the present proposal is thus concerned with the corresponding shift of attention from the actual fire-lines to consider instead the geodesic spray - the ‘fire-particles’ - which together, side by side, mold the fire-lines at each instant of time...... and thence eventually constitute the local and global structure of the wildfire spread....

  14. Trends in spread of the particle therapy of cancers to areal bases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abe, Mitsuyuki; Aoki, Takashi; Tsujii, Hirohiko

    2009-01-01

    In Japan, the rate of cancer death accounts for 30%, now there are 8 facilities having the cancer particle therapy (PT) which is promising due to its highly effective, short term, non-surgical, not always expensive treatment, and local areas have tended to construct such facility for their people. This special article describes trends in the title concerning the areal intention for setting up the therapeutic bases, global trend of PT, research and development in manufacturers of PT equipments, and response of health insurer to the trend. The article contains following 15 topics presented by 15 authors or groups of the academia, official and company institutes, prefectural officers, manufacturers and an insurer, and by Editorial. Topics are: Significance and future view of PT in cancer treatment; Present state of construction of PT facilities in various areas; Fifteen year-results of PT in near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) and its effort to spread the therapy; Gumma University's 21st century program COE (Center of Excellence), Medical and Biological Studies with Accelerator Technology; Project for constructing Fukui Prefectural Proton PT Center; The role of Proton PT Center in southern Tohoku area as the first private facility; PT center by Foundation of Medipolis Medical Research Institute in southern Kyushu area; Global trend of PT; Spread of PT and the role of health insurance in it/Mitsui-Sumitomo's health insurance, Kirameki, the contribution to general public; Mitsubishi Electric Corp.'s effort to spread PT equipments; Toshiba's effort; Hitachi's effort; Sumitomo Heavy Industries' effort; Effort by Chiyoda Technol Corp. and Still River Systems to develop the next generation superconducting PT equipment; and Overview by Editorial/Complicated trend in invitation and construction of PT facilities. (K.T.)

  15. Credit Spread Modeling: Macro-financial versus HOC Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanja Dudaković

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to throw light on the relationship between credit spread changes and past changes of U.S. macro-financial variables when invariants do not have Gaussian distribution. The first part presents the empirical analysis which is based on 10-year AAA corporate bond yields and 10-year Treasury bond yields. Explanatory variables include lagged U.S. leading index, Russell 2000 returns, BBB bond price changes interest rate swaps, exchange rates EUR/ USD, Repo rates, S& P 500 returns and S&P 500 volatility, Treasury bill changes, liquidity index-TRSW, LIBOR rates, Moody’s default rates; credit spread volatility and Treasury bills volatility. The proposed dynamical model explains 73% of the U.S. credit spread variance for the period 1999:07-2013:07. The second part of the article introduces the parameter estimation method based on higher order cumulants. It is demonstrated empirically that much of the information about variability of Credit Spread can be extracted from higher order cumulant function (85%.

  16. Cost analysis and biological ramifications for implementing the gypsy moth Slow the Spread Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patrick C. Tobin

    2008-01-01

    The gypsy moth Slow the Spread Program aims to reduce the rate of gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar (L.), spread into new areas in the United States. The annual budget for this program has ranged from $10-13 million. Changes in funding levels can have important ramifications to the implementation of this program, and consequently affect the rate of gypsy...

  17. Does a web-based feedback training program result in improved reliability in clinicians' ratings of the Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF) Scale?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Støre-Valen, Jakob; Ryum, Truls; Pedersen, Geir A F; Pripp, Are H; Jose, Paul E; Karterud, Sigmund

    2015-09-01

    The Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF) Scale is used in routine clinical practice and research to estimate symptom and functional severity and longitudinal change. Concerns about poor interrater reliability have been raised, and the present study evaluated the effect of a Web-based GAF training program designed to improve interrater reliability in routine clinical practice. Clinicians rated up to 20 vignettes online, and received deviation scores as immediate feedback (i.e., own scores compared with expert raters) after each rating. Growth curves of absolute SD scores across the vignettes were modeled. A linear mixed effects model, using the clinician's deviation scores from expert raters as the dependent variable, indicated an improvement in reliability during training. Moderation by content of scale (symptoms; functioning), scale range (average; extreme), previous experience with GAF rating, profession, and postgraduate training were assessed. Training reduced deviation scores for inexperienced GAF raters, for individuals in clinical professions other than nursing and medicine, and for individuals with no postgraduate specialization. In addition, training was most beneficial for cases with average severity of symptoms compared with cases with extreme severity. The results support the use of Web-based training with feedback routines as a means to improve the reliability of GAF ratings performed by clinicians in mental health practice. These results especially pertain to clinicians in mental health practice who do not have a masters or doctoral degree. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

  18. Gynecologic cancer mortality in Trinidad and Tobago and comparisons of mortality-to-incidence rate ratios across global regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llanos, Adana A. M.; Warner, Wayne A.; Luciani, Silvana; Lee, Tammy Y.; Bajracharya, Smriti; Slovacek, Simeon; Roach, Veronica; Lamont-Greene, Marjorie

    2018-01-01

    Purpose To examine the factors associated with gynecologic cancer mortality risks, to estimate the mortality-to-incidence rate ratios (MIR) in Trinidad and Tobago (TT), and to compare the MIRs to those of select countries. Methods Data on 3,915 incident gynecologic cancers reported to the National Cancer Registry of TT from 1 January 1995 to 31 December 2009 were analyzed using proportional hazards models to determine factors associated with mortality. MIRs for cervical, endometrial, and ovarian cancers were calculated using cancer registry data (TT), GLOBOCAN 2012 incidence data, and WHO Mortality Database 2012 data (WHO regions and select countries). Results Among the 3,915 incident gynecologic cancers diagnosed in TT during the study period, 1,795 (45.8%) were cervical, 1,259 (32.2%) were endometrial, and 861 (22.0%) were ovarian cancers. Older age, African ancestry, geographic residence, tumor stage, and treatment non-receipt were associated with increased gynecologic cancer mortality in TT. Compared to GLOBOCAN 2012 data, TT MIR estimates for cervical (0.49 vs. 0.53), endometrial (0.61 vs. 0.65), and ovarian cancers (0.32 vs. 0.48) were elevated. While the Caribbean region had intermediate gynecologic cancer MIRs, MIRs in TT were among the highest of the countries examined in the Caribbean region. Conclusions Given its status as a high-income economy, the relatively high gynecologic cancer MIRs observed in TT are striking. These findings highlight the urgent need for improved cancer surveillance, screening, and treatment for these (and other) cancers in this Caribbean nation. PMID:28917021

  19. Sickness Absenteeism Rate in Iranian Schools during the 2009 Epidemic of Type a Influenza

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pourabbasi, Ata; Shirvani, Mahbubeh Ebrahimnegad; Khashayar, Patricia

    2012-01-01

    Influenza pandemic was a global event in 2009 and intraschool transmission was its main spread method. The present study was designed to evaluate the absenteeism rate during the type A influenza epidemic. Four hundred and eight students from both a guidance school and high school in the Iranian capital were recruited in this retrospective study.…

  20. Can Equity Volatility Explain the Global Loan Pricing Puzzle?

    OpenAIRE

    Lewis Gaul; Pinar Uysal

    2013-01-01

    This paper examines whether unobservable differences in firm volatility are responsible for the global loan pricing puzzle, which is the observation that corporate loan interest rates appear to be lower in Europe than in the United States. We analyze whether equity volatility, an error prone measure of firm volatility, can explain this difference in loan spreads. We show that using equity volatility in OLS regressions will result in biased and inconsistent estimates of the difference in U.S. ...

  1. Effects of local and global network connectivity on synergistic epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broder-Rodgers, David; Pérez-Reche, Francisco J.; Taraskin, Sergei N.

    2015-12-01

    Epidemics in networks can be affected by cooperation in transmission of infection and also connectivity between nodes. An interplay between these two properties and their influence on epidemic spread are addressed in the paper. A particular type of cooperative effects (called synergy effects) is considered, where the transmission rate between a pair of nodes depends on the number of infected neighbors. The connectivity effects are studied by constructing networks of different topology, starting with lattices with only local connectivity and then with networks that have both local and global connectivity obtained by random bond-rewiring to nodes within a certain distance. The susceptible-infected-removed epidemics were found to exhibit several interesting effects: (i) for epidemics with strong constructive synergy spreading in networks with high local connectivity, the bond rewiring has a negative role in epidemic spread, i.e., it reduces invasion probability; (ii) in contrast, for epidemics with destructive or weak constructive synergy spreading on networks of arbitrary local connectivity, rewiring helps epidemics to spread; (iii) and, finally, rewiring always enhances the spread of epidemics, independent of synergy, if the local connectivity is low.

  2. The Managing Emergencies in Paediatric Anaesthesia global rating scale is a reliable tool for simulation-based assessment in pediatric anesthesia crisis management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Everett, Tobias C; Ng, Elaine; Power, Daniel; Marsh, Christopher; Tolchard, Stephen; Shadrina, Anna; Bould, Matthew D

    2013-12-01

    The use of simulation-based assessments for high-stakes physician examinations remains controversial. The Managing Emergencies in Paediatric Anaesthesia course uses simulation to teach evidence-based management of anesthesia crises to trainee anesthetists in the United Kingdom (UK) and Canada. In this study, we investigated the feasibility and reliability of custom-designed scenario-specific performance checklists and a global rating scale (GRS) assessing readiness for independent practice. After research ethics board approval, subjects were videoed managing simulated pediatric anesthesia crises in a single Canadian teaching hospital. Each subject was randomized to two of six different scenarios. All 60 scenarios were subsequently rated by four blinded raters (two in the UK, two in Canada) using the checklists and GRS. The actual and predicted reliability of the tools was calculated for different numbers of raters using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and the Spearman-Brown prophecy formula. Average measures ICCs ranged from 'substantial' to 'near perfect' (P ≤ 0.001). The reliability of the checklists and the GRS was similar. Single measures ICCs showed more variability than average measures ICC. At least two raters would be required to achieve acceptable reliability. We have established the reliability of a GRS to assess the management of simulated crisis scenarios in pediatric anesthesia, and this tool is feasible within the setting of a research study. The global rating scale allows raters to make a judgement regarding a participant's readiness for independent practice. These tools may be used in the future research examining simulation-based assessment. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. The Stanford Microsurgery and Resident Training (SMaRT) Scale: validation of an on-line global rating scale for technical assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satterwhite, Thomas; Son, Ji; Carey, Joseph; Echo, Anthony; Spurling, Terry; Paro, John; Gurtner, Geoffrey; Chang, James; Lee, Gordon K

    2014-05-01

    We previously reported results of our on-line microsurgery training program, showing that residents who had access to our website significantly improved their cognitive and technical skills. In this study, we report an objective means for expert evaluators to reliably rate trainees' technical skills under the microscope, with the use of our novel global rating scale. "Microsurgery Essentials" (http://smartmicrosurgery.com) is our on-line training curriculum. Residents were randomly divided into 2 groups: 1 group reviewed this online resource and the other did not. Pre- and post-tests consisted of videotaped microsurgical sessions in which the trainee performed "microsurgery" on 3 different models: latex glove, penrose drain, and the dorsal vessel of a chicken foot. The SMaRT (Stanford Microsurgery and Resident Training) scale, consisting of 9 categories graded on a 5-point Likert scale, was used to assess the trainees. Results were analyzed with ANOVA and Student t test, with P less than 0.05 indicating statistical significance. Seventeen residents participated in the study. The SMaRT scale adequately differentiated the performance of more experienced senior residents (PGY-4 to PGY-6, total average score=3.43) from less experienced junior residents (PGY-1 to PGY-3, total average score=2.10, P0.05). Additionally, junior residents who had access to our website showed a significant increase in their graded technical performance by 0.7 points when compared to residents who did not have access to the website who showed an improvement of only 0.2 points (P=0.01). Our SMaRT scale is valid and reliable in assessing the microsurgical skills of residents and other trainees. Current trainees are more likely to use self-directed on-line education because of its easy accessibility and interactive format. Our global rating scale can help ensure residents are achieving appropriate technical milestones.

  4. Epidemic spreading on dual-structure networks with mobile agents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Yiyang; Zhou, Yinzuo

    2017-02-01

    The rapid development of modern society continually transforms the social structure which leads to an increasingly distinct dual structure of higher population density in urban areas and lower density in rural areas. Such structure may induce distinctive spreading behavior of epidemics which does not happen in a single type structure. In this paper, we study the epidemic spreading of mobile agents on dual structure networks based on SIRS model. First, beyond the well known epidemic threshold for generic epidemic model that when the infection rate is below the threshold a pertinent infectious disease will die out, we find the other epidemic threshold which appears when the infection rate of a disease is relatively high. This feature of two thresholds for the SIRS model may lead to the elimination of infectious disease when social network has either high population density or low population density. Interestingly, however, we find that when a high density area is connected to a low density may cause persistent spreading of the infectious disease, even though the same disease will die out when it spreads in each single area. This phenomenon indicates the critical role of the connection between the two areas which could radically change the behavior of spreading dynamics. Our findings, therefore, provide new understanding of epidemiology pertinent to the characteristic modern social structure and have potential to develop controlling strategies accordingly.

  5. Suppressing epidemic spreading in multiplex networks with social-support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xiaolong; Wang, Ruijie; Tang, Ming; Cai, Shimin; Stanley, H. Eugene; Braunstein, Lidia A.

    2018-01-01

    Although suppressing the spread of a disease is usually achieved by investing in public resources, in the real world only a small percentage of the population have access to government assistance when there is an outbreak, and most must rely on resources from family or friends. We study the dynamics of disease spreading in social-contact multiplex networks when the recovery of infected nodes depends on resources from healthy neighbors in the social layer. We investigate how degree heterogeneity affects the spreading dynamics. Using theoretical analysis and simulations we find that degree heterogeneity promotes disease spreading. The phase transition of the infected density is hybrid and increases smoothly from zero to a finite small value at the first invasion threshold and then suddenly jumps at the second invasion threshold. We also find a hysteresis loop in the transition of the infected density. We further investigate how an overlap in the edges between two layers affects the spreading dynamics. We find that when the amount of overlap is smaller than a critical value the phase transition is hybrid and there is a hysteresis loop, otherwise the phase transition is continuous and the hysteresis loop vanishes. In addition, the edge overlap allows an epidemic outbreak when the transmission rate is below the first invasion threshold, but suppresses any explosive transition when the transmission rate is above the first invasion threshold.

  6. The predictive power of yield spreads for future interest rates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tanggaard, Carsten; Engsted, Tom

    1995-01-01

    Med udgangspunkt i danske nul-kupon obligationsrenter testes 'forventningshypotesen's høj-frekvens implikationer. Resultaterne viser, at op til 1985, hvor pengepolitikken er karakteriseret ved pengemængdestyring, forudsiger rentespændet den fremtidige renteudvikling i overensstemmelse med forvent...

  7. Seafloor spreading magnetic anomalies south off Sri Lanka

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Desa, M.; Ramana, M.V.; Ramprasad, T.

    Cretaceous is estimated to have evolved with variable half-spreading rates ranging from 5.5 to 1.53 cm/yr. The trends of the fracture zones inferred from the offsets in the magnetic anomalies have been constrained using the satellite gravity mosaic...

  8. Credit ratings and the pricing of sovereign debt during the euro crisis

    OpenAIRE

    Joshua Aizenman; Mahir Binici; Michael Hutchison

    2013-01-01

    This paper investigates the impact of credit rating changes on the sovereign spreads in the European Union and investigates the macro and financial factors that account for the time-varying effects of a given credit rating change. We find that changes of ratings are informative, economically important, and highly statistically significant in panel models, even after controlling for a host of domestic and global fundamental factors and investigating various functional forms, time and country g...

  9. Similarities and Improvements of GPM Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR upon TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR in Global Precipitation Rate Estimation, Type Classification and Vertical Profiling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinyu Gao

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Spaceborne precipitation radars are powerful tools used to acquire adequate and high-quality precipitation estimates with high spatial resolution for a variety of applications in hydrological research. The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM mission, which deployed the first spaceborne Ka- and Ku-dual frequency radar (DPR, was launched in February 2014 as the upgraded successor of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM. This study matches the swath data of TRMM PR and GPM DPR Level 2 products during their overlapping periods at the global scale to investigate their similarities and DPR’s improvements concerning precipitation amount estimation and type classification of GPM DPR over TRMM PR. Results show that PR and DPR agree very well with each other in the global distribution of precipitation, while DPR improves the detectability of precipitation events significantly, particularly for light precipitation. The occurrences of total precipitation and the light precipitation (rain rates < 1 mm/h detected by GPM DPR are ~1.7 and ~2.53 times more than that of PR. With regard to type classification, the dual-frequency (Ka/Ku and single frequency (Ku methods performed similarly. In both inner (the central 25 beams and outer swaths (1–12 beams and 38–49 beams of DPR, the results are consistent. GPM DPR improves precipitation type classification remarkably, reducing the misclassification of clouds and noise signals as precipitation type “other” from 10.14% of TRMM PR to 0.5%. Generally, GPM DPR exhibits the same type division for around 82.89% (71.02% of stratiform (convective precipitation events recognized by TRMM PR. With regard to the freezing level height and bright band (BB height, both radars correspond with each other very well, contributing to the consistency in stratiform precipitation classification. Both heights show clear latitudinal dependence. Results in this study shall contribute to future development of spaceborne

  10. Assessing communication quality of consultations in primary care: initial reliability of the Global Consultation Rating Scale, based on the Calgary-Cambridge Guide to the Medical Interview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burt, Jenni; Abel, Gary; Elmore, Natasha; Campbell, John; Roland, Martin; Benson, John; Silverman, Jonathan

    2014-03-06

    To investigate initial reliability of the Global Consultation Rating Scale (GCRS: an instrument to assess the effectiveness of communication across an entire doctor-patient consultation, based on the Calgary-Cambridge guide to the medical interview), in simulated patient consultations. Multiple ratings of simulated general practitioner (GP)-patient consultations by trained GP evaluators. UK primary care. 21 GPs and six trained GP evaluators. GCRS score. 6 GP raters used GCRS to rate randomly assigned video recordings of GP consultations with simulated patients. Each of the 42 consultations was rated separately by four raters. We considered whether a fixed difference between scores had the same meaning at all levels of performance. We then examined the reliability of GCRS using mixed linear regression models. We augmented our regression model to also examine whether there were systematic biases between the scores given by different raters and to look for possible order effects. Assessing the communication quality of individual consultations, GCRS achieved a reliability of 0.73 (95% CI 0.44 to 0.79) for two raters, 0.80 (0.54 to 0.85) for three and 0.85 (0.61 to 0.88) for four. We found an average difference of 1.65 (on a 0-10 scale) in the scores given by the least and most generous raters: adjusting for this evaluator bias increased reliability to 0.78 (0.53 to 0.83) for two raters; 0.85 (0.63 to 0.88) for three and 0.88 (0.69 to 0.91) for four. There were considerable order effects, with later consultations (after 15-20 ratings) receiving, on average, scores more than one point higher on a 0-10 scale. GCRS shows good reliability with three raters assessing each consultation. We are currently developing the scale further by assessing a large sample of real-world consultations.

  11. Effects of Financial Crises on the Long Memory Volatility Dependency of Foreign Exchange Rates: the Asian Crisis vs. the Global Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Young Wook Han

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the effects of financial crises on the long memory volatility dependency of daily exchange returns focusing on the Asian crisis in 97-98 and the Global crisis in 08-09. By using the daily KRW-USD and JPY-USD exchange rates which have different trading regions and volumes, this paper first applies both the parametric FIGARCH model and the semi-parametric Local Whittle method to estimate the long memory volatility dependency of the daily returns and the temporally aggregated returns of the two exchange rates. Then it compares the effects of the two financial crises on the long memory volatility dependency of the daily returns. The estimation results reflect that the long memory volatility dependency of the KRW-USD is generally greater than that of the JPY-USD returns and the long memory dependency of the two returns appears to be invariant to temporal aggregation. And, the two financial crises appear to affect the volatility dynamics of all the returns by inducing greater long memory dependency in the volatility process of the exchange returns, but the degree of the effects of the two crises seems to be different on the exchange rates.

  12. Integrating livestock manure with a corn-soybean bioenergy cropping system improves short-term carbon sequestration rates and net global warming potential

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thelen, K.D.; Fronning, B.E.; Kravchenko, A.; Min, D.H.; Robertson, G.P. [Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824 (United States)

    2010-07-15

    Carbon cycling and the global warming potential (GWP) of bioenergy cropping systems with complete biomass removal are of agronomic and environmental concern. Corn growers who plan to remove corn stover as a feedstock for the emerging cellulosic ethanol industry will benefit from carbon amendments such as manure and compost, to replace carbon removed with the corn stover. The objective of this research was to determine the effect of beef cattle feedlot manure and composted dairy manure on short-term carbon sequestration rates and net global warming potential (GWP) in a corn-soybean rotation with complete corn-stover removal. Field experiments consisting of a corn-soybean rotation with whole-plant corn harvest, were conducted near East Lansing, MI over a three-year period beginning in 2002. Compost and manure amendments raised soil carbon (C) at a level sufficient to overcome the C debt associated with manure production, manure collection and storage, land application, and post-application field emissions. The net GWP in carbon dioxide equivalents for the manure and compost amended cropping systems was -934 and -784 g m{sup -2} y{sup -1}, respectively, compared to 52 g m{sup -2} y{sup -1} for the non-manure amended synthetic fertilizer check. This work further substantiates the environmental benefits associated with renewable fuels and demonstrates that with proper management, the integration of livestock manures in biofuel cropping systems can enhance greenhouse gas (GHG) remediation. (author)

  13. Integrating livestock manure with a corn-soybean bioenergy cropping system improves short-term carbon sequestration rates and net global warming potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thelen, K.D.; Fronning, B.E.; Kravchenko, A.; Min, D.H.; Robertson, G.P.

    2010-01-01

    Carbon cycling and the global warming potential (GWP) of bioenergy cropping systems with complete biomass removal are of agronomic and environmental concern. Corn growers who plan to remove corn stover as a feedstock for the emerging cellulosic ethanol industry will benefit from carbon amendments such as manure and compost, to replace carbon removed with the corn stover. The objective of this research was to determine the effect of beef cattle feedlot manure and composted dairy manure on short-term carbon sequestration rates and net global warming potential (GWP) in a corn-soybean rotation with complete corn-stover removal. Field experiments consisting of a corn-soybean rotation with whole-plant corn harvest, were conducted near East Lansing, MI over a three-year period beginning in 2002. Compost and manure amendments raised soil carbon (C) at a level sufficient to overcome the C debt associated with manure production, manure collection and storage, land application, and post-application field emissions. The net GWP in carbon dioxide equivalents for the manure and compost amended cropping systems was -934 and -784 g m -2 y -1 , respectively, compared to 52 g m -2 y -1 for the non-manure amended synthetic fertilizer check. This work further substantiates the environmental benefits associated with renewable fuels and demonstrates that with proper management, the integration of livestock manures in biofuel cropping systems can enhance greenhouse gas (GHG) remediation.

  14. Spread of Zika virus in the Americas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qian; Sun, Kaiyuan; Chinazzi, Matteo; Pastore Y Piontti, Ana; Dean, Natalie E; Rojas, Diana Patricia; Merler, Stefano; Mistry, Dina; Poletti, Piero; Rossi, Luca; Bray, Margaret; Halloran, M Elizabeth; Longini, Ira M; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2017-05-30

    We use a data-driven global stochastic epidemic model to analyze the spread of the Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Americas. The model has high spatial and temporal resolution and integrates real-world demographic, human mobility, socioeconomic, temperature, and vector density data. We estimate that the first introduction of ZIKV to Brazil likely occurred between August 2013 and April 2014 (90% credible interval). We provide simulated epidemic profiles of incident ZIKV infections for several countries in the Americas through February 2017. The ZIKV epidemic is characterized by slow growth and high spatial and seasonal heterogeneity, attributable to the dynamics of the mosquito vector and to the characteristics and mobility of the human populations. We project the expected timing and number of pregnancies infected with ZIKV during the first trimester and provide estimates of microcephaly cases assuming different levels of risk as reported in empirical retrospective studies. Our approach represents a modeling effort aimed at understanding the potential magnitude and timing of the ZIKV epidemic and it can be potentially used as a template for the analysis of future mosquito-borne epidemics.

  15. Spreading Culture on Quantum Entanglement and Consciousness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nobili, G.; Teodorani, M.

    The subject of "quantum entanglement" in general doesn't seem to be particularly considered in Europe in the form of popularizing books or of educational physics projects. These authors have started to spread out this kind of scientific culture in both forms, including popularizing seminars too. Concerning the entanglement phenomenon, recently, new thought experiments have been outlined, new laboratory results have come out in the form of real discoveries in quantum optics, new studies on "bio-entanglement" and 'global consciousness effects' have been carried out, and very sophisticated new ideas have been developed in the fields of quantum physics, biophysics, cosmology and epistemology. These authors intend to show their effort of diffusing widely this growing scientific knowledge. Beyond all this there is a long-term strategy aimed at inculcating new concepts in physics in order to trigger the interest of scholars at all levels, in that which is probably the most innovative and interdisciplinary subject of the human knowledge of this new millennium.

  16. Risk spreading, connectivity, and optimal reserve spacing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blowes, Shane A; Connolly, Sean R

    2012-01-01

    Two important processes determining the dynamics of spatially structured populations are dispersal and the spatial covariance of demographic fluctuations. Spatially explicit approaches to conservation, such as reserve networks, must consider the tension between these two processes and reach a balance between distances near enough to maintain connectivity, but far enough to benefit from risk spreading. Here, we model this trade-off. We show how two measures of metapopulation persistence depend on the shape of the dispersal kernel and the shape of the distance decay in demographic covariance, and we consider the implications of this trade-off for reserve spacing. The relative rates of distance decay in dispersal and demographic covariance determine whether the long-run metapopulation growth rate, and quasi-extinction risk, peak for adjacent patches or intermediately spaced patches; two local maxima in metapopulation persistence are also possible. When dispersal itself fluctuates over time, the trade-off changes. Temporal variation in mean distance that propagules are dispersed (i.e., propagule advection) decreases metapopulation persistence and decreases the likelihood that persistence will peak for adjacent patches. Conversely, variation in diffusion (the extent of random spread around mean dispersal) increases metapopulation persistence overall and causes it to peak at shorter inter-patch distances. Thus, failure to consider temporal variation in dispersal processes increases the risk that reserve spacings will fail to meet the objective of ensuring metapopulation persistence. This study identifies two phenomena that receive relatively little attention in empirical work on reserve spacing, but that can qualitatively change the effectiveness of reserve spacing strategies: (1) the functional form of the distance decay in covariance among patch-specific demographic rates and (2) temporal variation in the shape of the dispersal kernel. The sensitivity of metapopulation

  17. Epidemiological models for the spread of anti-malarial resistance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antia R

    2003-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The spread of drug resistance is making malaria control increasingly difficult. Mathematical models for the transmission dynamics of drug sensitive and resistant strains can be a useful tool to help to understand the factors that influence the spread of drug resistance, and they can therefore help in the design of rational strategies for the control of drug resistance. Methods We present an epidemiological framework to investigate the spread of anti-malarial resistance. Several mathematical models, based on the familiar Macdonald-Ross model of malaria transmission, enable us to examine the processes and parameters that are critical in determining the spread of resistance. Results In our simplest model, resistance does not spread if the fraction of infected individuals treated is less than a threshold value; if drug treatment exceeds this threshold, resistance will eventually become fixed in the population. The threshold value is determined only by the rates of infection and the infectious periods of resistant and sensitive parasites in untreated and treated hosts, whereas the intensity of transmission has no influence on the threshold value. In more complex models, where hosts can be infected by multiple parasite strains or where treatment varies spatially, resistance is generally not fixed, but rather some level of sensitivity is often maintained in the population. Conclusions The models developed in this paper are a first step in understanding the epidemiology of anti-malarial resistance and evaluating strategies to reduce the spread of resistance. However, specific recommendations for the management of resistance need to wait until we have more data on the critical parameters underlying the spread of resistance: drug use, spatial variability of treatment and parasite migration among areas, and perhaps most importantly, cost of resistance.

  18. Near limit flame spread over thick fuels in a concurrent forced flow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Di Blasi, C.; Crescitelli, S.; Russo, G.

    1988-01-01

    The influence of the ambient level of oxygen concentration on the flow assisted flame spread over thick solid fuels and the extinction of the fame is studied by means of numerical modeling. The pyrolysis spread rate decreases with the oxygen concentration, showing qualitative agreement with experimental data. In fact, as the oxygen level decreases, the flame temperature decreases, causing lower heat fluxes at the fuel surfaces and lower pyrolysis mass rates so that the spread process is slowed. The effects due to finite kinetics are of increasing importance as extinction is approached. These effects appear mainly at the upstream flame leading edge, where the extinction length (distance of the flame leading edge from the edge of the fuel slab) increases. However, the spread process continues, that is, the flame and pyrolysis lengths increase with time, until the pyrolysis spread rate is greater than the upstream extinction rate. Complete extinction occurs when the extinction distance extends to the position of the pyrolysis front

  19. SPREADING LAYERS IN ACCRETING OBJECTS: ROLE OF ACOUSTIC WAVES FOR ANGULAR MOMENTUM TRANSPORT, MIXING, AND THERMODYNAMICS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Philippov, Alexander A.; Rafikov, Roman R.; Stone, James M., E-mail: sashaph@princeton.edu [Department of Astrophysical Sciences, Princeton University, Ivy Lane, Princeton, NJ 08540 (United States)

    2016-01-20

    Disk accretion at a high rate onto a white dwarf (WD) or a neutron star has been suggested to result in the formation of a spreading layer (SL)—a belt-like structure on the object's surface, in which the accreted matter steadily spreads in the poleward (meridional) direction while spinning down. To assess its basic characteristics, we perform two-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations of supersonic SLs in the relevant morphology with a simple prescription for cooling. We demonstrate that supersonic shear naturally present at the base of the SL inevitably drives sonic instability that gives rise to large-scale acoustic modes governing the evolution of the SL. These modes dominate the transport of momentum and energy, which is intrinsically global and cannot be characterized via some form of local effective viscosity (e.g., α-viscosity). The global nature of the wave-driven transport should have important implications for triggering Type I X-ray bursts in low-mass X-ray binaries. The nonlinear evolution of waves into a system of shocks drives effective rearrangement (sensitively depending on thermodynamical properties of the flow) and deceleration of the SL, which ultimately becomes transonic and susceptible to regular Kelvin–Helmholtz instability. We interpret this evolution in terms of the global structure of the SL and suggest that mixing of the SL material with the underlying stellar fluid should become effective only at intermediate latitudes on the accreting object's surface, where the flow has decelerated appreciably. In the near-equatorial regions the transport is dominated by acoustic waves and mixing is less efficient. We speculate that this latitudinal nonuniformity of mixing in accreting WDs may be linked to the observed bipolar morphology of classical nova ejecta.

  20. Ohia forest decline: its spread and severity in Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwin Q. P. Petteys; Robert E. Burgan; Robert E. Nelson

    1975-01-01

    Ohia forest decline–its severity and rate of spread–was studied by aerial photographic techniques on a 197,000-acre (80,000-ha) portion of the island of Hawaii. In 1954, only 300 acres (121 ha) showed signs of severe decline; by 1972, the acreage of severely affected forest had increased to 85,200 acres (34,480 ha). Rate of decline and current severity were related to...

  1. Users' participation and social influence during information spreading on Twitter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xin; Han, Ding-Ding; Yang, Ruiqi; Zhang, Ziqiao

    2017-01-01

    Online Social Networks generate a prodigious wealth of real-time information at an incessant rate. In this paper we study the empirical data that crawled from Twitter to describe the topology and information spreading dynamics of Online Social Networks. We propose a measurement with three measures to state the efforts of users on Twitter to get their information spreading, based on the unique mechanisms for information retransmission on Twitter. It is noticed that small fraction of users with special performance on participation can gain great influence, while most other users play a role as middleware during the information propagation. Thus a community analysis is performed and four categories of users are found with different kinds of participation that cause the information dissemination dynamics. These suggest that exiting topological measures alone may reflect little about the influence of individuals and provide new insights for information spreading.

  2. Impact of Different Spreading Codes Using FEC on DWT Based MC-CDMA System

    OpenAIRE

    Masum, Saleh; Kabir, M. Hasnat; Islam, Md. Matiqul; Shams, Rifat Ara; Ullah, Shaikh Enayet

    2012-01-01

    The effect of different spreading codes in DWT based MC-CDMA wireless communication system is investigated. In this paper, we present the Bit Error Rate (BER) performance of different spreading codes (Walsh-Hadamard code, Orthogonal gold code and Golay complementary sequences) using Forward Error Correction (FEC) of the proposed system. The data is analyzed and is compared among different spreading codes in both coded and uncoded cases. It is found via computer simulation that the performance...

  3. Explosive spreading on complex networks: The role of synergy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Quan-Hui; Wang, Wei; Tang, Ming; Zhou, Tao; Lai, Ying-Cheng

    2017-04-01

    In spite of the vast literature on spreading dynamics on complex networks, the role of local synergy, i.e., the interaction of elements that when combined produce a total effect greater than the sum of the individual elements, has been studied but only for irreversible spreading dynamics. Reversible spreading dynamics are ubiquitous but their interplay with synergy has remained unknown. To fill this knowledge gap, we articulate a model to incorporate local synergistic effect into the classical susceptible-infected-susceptible process, in which the probability for a susceptible node to become infected through an infected neighbor is enhanced when the neighborhood of the latter contains a number of infected nodes. We derive master equations incorporating the synergistic effect, with predictions that agree well with the numerical results. A striking finding is that when a parameter characterizing the strength of the synergy reinforcement effect is above a critical value, the steady-state density of the infected nodes versus the basic transmission rate exhibits an explosively increasing behavior and a hysteresis loop emerges. In fact, increasing the synergy strength can promote the spreading and reduce the invasion and persistence thresholds of the hysteresis loop. A physical understanding of the synergy promoting explosive spreading and the associated hysteresis behavior can be obtained through a mean-field analysis.

  4. Perineural spread in head and neck tumors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brea Álvarez, B; Tuñón Gómez, M

    2014-01-01

    Perineural spread is the dissemination of some types of head and neck tumors along nervous structures. Perineural spread has negative repercussions on treatment because it requires more extensive resection and larger fields of irradiation. Moreover, perineural spread is associated with increased local recurrence, and it is considered an independent indicator of poor prognosis in the TNM classification for tumor staging. However, perineural spread often goes undetected on imaging studies. In this update, we review the concept of perineural spread, its pathogenesis, and the main pathways and connections among the facial nerves, which are essential to understand this process. Furthermore, we discuss the appropriate techniques for imaging studies, and we describe and illustrate the typical imaging signs that help identify perineural spread on CT and MRI. Finally, we discuss the differential diagnosis with other entities. Copyright © 2013 SERAM. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  5. [Globalization and infectious diseases].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirski, Tomasz; Bartoszcze, Michał; Bielawska-Drózd, Agata

    2011-01-01

    Globalization is a phenomenon characteristic of present times. It can be considered in various aspects: economic, environmental changes, demographic changes, as well as the development of new technologies. All these aspects of globalization have a definite influence on the emergence and spread of infectious diseases. Economic aspects ofglobalization are mainly the trade development, including food trade, which has an impact on the spread of food-borne diseases. The environmental changes caused by intensive development of industry, as a result of globalization, which in turn affects human health. The demographic changes are mainly people migration between countries and rural and urban areas, which essentially favors the global spread of many infectious diseases. While technological advances prevents the spread of infections, for example through better access to information, it may also increase the risk, for example through to create opportunities to travel into more world regions, including the endemic regions for various diseases. The phenomenon ofglobalization is also closely associated with the threat of terrorism, including bioterrorism. It forces the governments of many countries to develop effective programs to protect and fight against this threat.

  6. The Global Internet Pandemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, Deborah Joy

    2009-01-01

    The global rise of Internet-based education is discussed in relation to models drawn from social studies and epidemiology. Experiential and data density models are highlighted, also the capacity for technological change, and phenomena observed in the spread of disease. The lesson of these illustrations is that even apparently permanent phenomena…

  7. The global warming scare

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sunavala, P.D.

    1992-01-01

    It is argued that the present propaganda about the global warming with its disastrous consequences is a scare spread by some First World countries, especially the United States, to prevent the rapid industrialization of developing third world countries. (author). 6 refs., 1 tab

  8. Global Delivery Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manning, Stephan; Møller Larsen, Marcus; Bharati, Pratyush

    -zone spread allowing for 24/7 service delivery and access to resources. Based on comprehensive data we show that providers are likely to establish GDM configurations when clients value access to globally distributed talent pools and speed of service delivery, and in particular when services are highly...

  9. [Effects of plastic film mulching and nitrogen application rate on net global warming potential in semiarid rain-fed maize cropland].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jian Can; Wang, Ze Lin; Yue, Shan Chao; Li, Shi Qing

    2018-04-01

    A one-year field experiment was conducted to evaluate the effects of plastic film mulching (FM) and nitrogen application rates applied to rain-fed maize fields on net global warming potential (Net GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI) at the Changwu Agricultural and Ecological Experimental Station. Both GWP and GHGI were affected by the plastic film mulching and nitrogen application rate. Under the FM treatment, maize yield ranged from 1643 to 16699 kg·hm -2 , the net GWP (CO 2 -eq) ranged from 595 to 4376 kg·hm -2 ·a -1 , and the GHGI (CO 2 -eq) ranged from 213 to 358 kg·t -1 . The grain yield of maize, net GWP and GHGI for the UM (no mulching) treatment were 956 to 8821 kg·hm -2 , 342 to 4004 kg·hm -2 ·a -1 and 204 to 520 kg·t -1 , respectively. The results suggested that plastic film mulching could simultaneously improve grain yield and decrease GHGI in rain-fed cropland along with nitrogen fertilizer of 250 kg·hm -2 .

  10. MIMO Based Eigen-Space Spreading

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Eltawil, Ahmed

    2004-01-01

    .... Combination of this powerful technique with orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) based modulation and traditional time and frequency spreading techniques results in a highly secure mode of communications...

  11. COMBINED SURGERY OF SPREAD THYROID CANCER

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Zh. Brzhezovsky

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Results of treating of 99 patients with differentiated thyroid cancer spreading beyond the capsule of the organ were analysed. In most cases with spreading the tumor to the tracheal rings performing of organ-preserving operations (from “window-like” tracheal resections to circular tracheal resection with intertracheal anastomosis is possible. Choosing of type of operation to be performed depends on localisation and spread of tumor invasion of trachea, pharynx and esophagus. Using of combined operations in patients with locally-spread thyroid cancer allows to achieve long and stable remission in most of the cases.

  12. Energy Spread Sources in TESLA and TTF

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mosnier, A.; Tessier, J.M.

    1995-03-01

    The beam energy spread in the TESLA linac must be small enough to limit the emittance dilution due to the dispersive effects. This report summarizes the major sources of energy spread both for the TESLA linac and the TTF linac, where these estimations will be carefully checked with beam experiments. The first part recalls the intra-bunch energy spread while the second part looks into the bunch-to-bunch energy spread induced by rf field fluctuations within the bunch train and from pulse-to-pulse. (author). 3 refs., 4 figs

  13. Climate impact on spreading of airborne infectious diseases. Complex network based modeling of climate influences on influenza like illnesses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brenner, Frank; Marwan, Norbert; Hoffmann, Peter

    2017-06-01

    In this study we combined a wide range of data sets to simulate the outbreak of an airborne infectious disease that is directly transmitted from human to human. The basis is a complex network whose structures are inspired by global air traffic data (from openflights.org) containing information about airports, airport locations, direct flight connections and airplane types. Disease spreading inside every node is realized with a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) compartmental model. Disease transmission rates in our model are depending on the climate environment and therefore vary in time and from node to node. To implement the correlation between water vapor pressure and influenza transmission rate [J. Shaman, M. Kohn, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 106, 3243 (2009)], we use global available climate reanalysis data (WATCH-Forcing-Data-ERA-Interim, WFDEI). During our sensitivity analysis we found that disease spreading dynamics are strongly depending on network properties, the climatic environment of the epidemic outbreak location, and the season during the year in which the outbreak is happening.

  14. Onset conditions for equatorial spread F

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mendillo, M.; Baumgardner, J.; Xiaoqing Pi; Sultan, P.J.; Tsunoda, R.

    1992-01-01

    The problem of day-to-day variability in the occurrence of equatorial spread F (ESF) is addressed using multidiagnostic observations and semiempirical modeling. The observational results are derived from a two-night case study of ESF onset conditions observed at Kwajalein Atoll (Marshall Islands) using the ALTAIR incoherent scatter radar and all-sky optical imaging techniques. The major difference between nights when ESF instabilities did not occur (August 14, 1988) and did occur (August 15, 1988) in the Kwajalein sector was that the northern meridional gradient of 6300-angstrom airglow was reduced on the night of limited ESF activity. Modeling results suggest that this unusual airglow pattern is due to equatorward neutral winds. Previous researchers have shown that transequatorial thermospheric winds can exert a control over ESF seasonal and longitudinal occurrence patterns by inhibiting Rayleigh-Taylor instability growth rates. They present evidence to suggest that this picture can be extended to far shorter time scales, namely, that 'surges' in transequatoral winds acting over characteristic times of a few hours to a day can result in a stabilizing influence upon irregularity growth rates. The seemingly capricious nature of ESF onset may thus be controlled, in part, by the inherent variability of low-latitude thermospheric winds

  15. Olive oil in food spreads

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Blanco Muñoz, Miguel A.

    2004-03-01

    Full Text Available Chemical hydrogenation of unsaturated fatty acids is a commonly applied reaction to food industries. The process may imply the movement of double bonds in their positions on the fatty acid carbon chain, producing positional and geometrical isomers ( trans fatty acids. Through hydrogenation, unsaturated oils are converted to margarines and vegetable shortenings. The presence of trans fatty acids in foods is undesirable, as trans fatty acids raise the plasma levels of total and low-density lipoproteins (LDL, while decrease the plasma level of high-density lipoproteins (HDL, among other effects. The use of olive oil to prepare fat spread opens new insights into the commercial development of healthy novel foods with a positive image in terms of consumer appeal.La hidrogenación química de los ácidos grasos insaturados es una reacción que se utiliza con frecuencia en la industria alimentaria. El proceso implica el movimiento de los dobles enlaces en la cadena hidrocarbonada de los ácidos grasos, y la aparición de isómeros posicionales y geométricos (ácidos grasos trans . La ingesta inadecuada de alimentos que pueden contener cantidades significativas de ácidos grasos trans se asocia con el aumento en sangre de colesterol total y LDL, y la disminución de HDL, entre otros efectos. Por lo tanto, el uso de aceite de oliva en la preparación de grasas para untar constituye un importante avance en el desarrollo comercial de nuevos alimentos saludables con una imagen positiva para el consumidor.

  16. Anomalous diffusion spreads its wings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klafter, J. [School of Chemistry, Tel Aviv University, Tel-Aviv (Israel)]. E-mail: klafter@post.tau.ac.il; Sokolov, I.M. [Institute of Physics, Humboldt University, Berlin (Germany)]. E-mail: igor.sokolov@physik.hu-berlin.de

    2005-08-01

    An increasing number of natural phenomena do not fit into the relatively simple description of diffusion developed by Einstein a century ago. As all of us are no doubt aware, this year has been declared 'world year of physics' to celebrate the three remarkable breakthroughs made by Albert Einstein in 1905. However, it is not so well known that Einstein's work on Brownian motion - the random motion of tiny particles first observed and investigated by the botanist Robert Brown in 1827 - has been cited more times in the scientific literature than his more famous papers on special relativity and the quantum nature of light. In a series of publications that included his doctoral thesis, Einstein derived an equation for Brownian motion from microscopic principles - a feat that ultimately enabled Jean Perrin and others to prove the existence of atoms (see 'Einstein's random walk' Physics World January pp19-22). Einstein was not the only person thinking about this type of problem. The 27 July 1905 issue of Nature contained a letter with the title 'The problem of the random walk' by the British statistician Karl Pearson, who was interested in the way that mosquitoes spread malaria, which he showed was described by the well-known diffusion equation. As such, the displacement of a mosquito from its initial position is proportional to the square root of time, and the distribution of the positions of many such 'random walkers' starting from the same origin is Gaussian in form. The random walk has since turned out to be intimately linked to Einstein's work on Brownian motion, and has become a major tool for understanding diffusive processes in nature. (U.K.)

  17. Epidemic spreading between two coupled subpopulations with inner structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruan, Zhongyuan; Tang, Ming; Gu, Changgui; Xu, Jinshan

    2017-10-01

    The structure of underlying contact network and the mobility of agents are two decisive factors for epidemic spreading in reality. Here, we study a model consisting of two coupled subpopulations with intra-structures that emphasizes both the contact structure and the recurrent mobility pattern of individuals simultaneously. We show that the coupling of the two subpopulations (via interconnections between them and round trips of individuals) makes the epidemic threshold in each subnetwork to be the same. Moreover, we find that the interconnection probability between two subpopulations and the travel rate are important factors for spreading dynamics. In particular, as a function of interconnection probability, the epidemic threshold in each subpopulation decreases monotonously, which enhances the risks of an epidemic. While the epidemic threshold displays a non-monotonic variation as travel rate increases. Moreover, the asymptotic infected density as a function of travel rate in each subpopulation behaves differently depending on the interconnection probability.

  18. Wet climate and transportation routes accelerate spread of human plague

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Lei; Stige, Leif Chr.; Kausrud, Kyrre Linné; Ben Ari, Tamara; Wang, Shuchun; Fang, Xiye; Schmid, Boris V.; Liu, Qiyong; Stenseth, Nils Chr.; Zhang, Zhibin

    2014-01-01

    Currently, large-scale transmissions of infectious diseases are becoming more closely associated with accelerated globalization and climate change, but quantitative analyses are still rare. By using an extensive dataset consisting of date and location of cases for the third plague pandemic from 1772 to 1964 in China and a novel method (nearest neighbour approach) which deals with both short- and long-distance transmissions, we found the presence of major roads, rivers and coastline accelerated the spread of plague and shaped the transmission patterns. We found that plague spread velocity was positively associated with wet conditions (measured by an index of drought and flood events) in China, probably due to flood-driven transmission by people or rodents. Our study provides new insights on transmission patterns and possible mechanisms behind variability in transmission speed, with implications for prevention and control measures. The methodology may also be applicable to studies of disease dynamics or species movement in other systems. PMID:24523275

  19. Collective behavior in the spatial spreading of obesity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallos, Lazaros K.; Barttfeld, Pablo; Havlin, Shlomo; Sigman, Mariano; Makse, Hernán A.

    2012-06-01

    Obesity prevalence is increasing in many countries at alarming levels. A difficulty in the conception of policies to reverse these trends is the identification of the drivers behind the obesity epidemics. Here, we implement a spatial spreading analysis to investigate whether obesity shows spatial correlations, revealing the effect of collective and global factors acting above individual choices. We find a regularity in the spatial fluctuations of their prevalence revealed by a pattern of scale-free long-range correlations. The fluctuations are anomalous, deviating in a fundamental way from the weaker correlations found in the underlying population distribution indicating the presence of collective behavior, i.e., individual habits may have negligible influence in shaping the patterns of spreading. Interestingly, we find the same scale-free correlations in economic activities associated with food production. These results motivate future interventions to investigate the causality of this relation providing guidance for the implementation of preventive health policies.

  20. Assessing Rates of Global Warming Emissions from Port- Fuel Injection and Gasoline Direct Injection Engines in Light-Duty Passenger Vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Short, D.; , D., Vi; Durbin, T.; Karavalakis, G.; Asa-Awuku, A. A.

    2013-12-01

    . While BC emissions were 96% higher for the GDI technology. The GDI technology had a smaller effect on CO2 emissions with a 4% rise compared to the other emissions. Additional results will discuss the emission rates converted to reflect total yearly passenger vehicular emissions in the U.S. Overall, the results show increases of global warming emissions from GDI passenger vehicle technology.

  1. Assessing communication quality of consultations in primary care: initial reliability of the Global Consultation Rating Scale, based on the Calgary-Cambridge Guide to the Medical Interview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burt, Jenni; Abel, Gary; Elmore, Natasha; Campbell, John; Roland, Martin; Benson, John; Silverman, Jonathan

    2014-01-01

    Objectives To investigate initial reliability of the Global Consultation Rating Scale (GCRS: an instrument to assess the effectiveness of communication across an entire doctor–patient consultation, based on the Calgary-Cambridge guide to the medical interview), in simulated patient consultations. Design Multiple ratings of simulated general practitioner (GP)–patient consultations by trained GP evaluators. Setting UK primary care. Participants 21 GPs and six trained GP evaluators. Outcome measures GCRS score. Methods 6 GP raters used GCRS to rate randomly assigned video recordings of GP consultations with simulated patients. Each of the 42 consultations was rated separately by four raters. We considered whether a fixed difference between scores had the same meaning at all levels of performance. We then examined the reliability of GCRS using mixed linear regression models. We augmented our regression model to also examine whether there were systematic biases between the scores given by different raters and to look for possible order effects. Results Assessing the communication quality of individual consultations, GCRS achieved a reliability of 0.73 (95% CI 0.44 to 0.79) for two raters, 0.80 (0.54 to 0.85) for three and 0.85 (0.61 to 0.88) for four. We found an average difference of 1.65 (on a 0–10 scale) in the scores given by the least and most generous raters: adjusting for this evaluator bias increased reliability to 0.78 (0.53 to 0.83) for two raters; 0.85 (0.63 to 0.88) for three and 0.88 (0.69 to 0.91) for four. There were considerable order effects, with later consultations (after 15–20 ratings) receiving, on average, scores more than one point higher on a 0–10 scale. Conclusions GCRS shows good reliability with three raters assessing each consultation. We are currently developing the scale further by assessing a large sample of real-world consultations. PMID:24604483

  2. Experimental and scale up study of the flame spread over the PMMA sheets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mamourian Mojtaba

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available To explore the flame spread mechanisms over the solid fuel sheets, downward flame spread over vertical polymethylmethacrylate sheets with thicknesses from 1.75 to 5.75 mm have been examined in the quiescent environment. The dependence of the flame spread rate on the thickness of sheets is obtained by one-dimensional heat transfer model. An equation for the flame spread rate based on the thermal properties and the thickness of the sheet by scale up method is derived from this model. During combustion, temperature within the gas and solid phases is measured by a fine thermocouple. The pyrolysis temperature, the length of the pyrolysis zone, the length of the preheating zone, and the flame temperature are determined from the experimental data. Mathematical analysis has yielded realistic results. This model provides a useful formula to predict the rate of flame spread over any thin solid fuel.

  3. Searching for the most cost-effective strategy for controlling epidemics spreading on regular and small-world networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleczkowski, Adam; Oleś, Katarzyna; Gudowska-Nowak, Ewa; Gilligan, Christopher A

    2012-01-07

    We present a combined epidemiological and economic model for control of diseases spreading on local and small-world networks. The disease is characterized by a pre-symptomatic infectious stage that makes detection and control of cases more difficult. The effectiveness of local (ring-vaccination or culling) and global control strategies is analysed by comparing the net present values of the combined cost of preventive treatment and illness. The optimal strategy is then selected by minimizing the total cost of the epidemic. We show that three main strategies emerge, with treating a large number of individuals (global strategy, GS), treating a small number of individuals in a well-defined neighbourhood of a detected case (local strategy) and allowing the disease to spread unchecked (null strategy, NS). The choice of the optimal strategy is governed mainly by a relative cost of palliative and preventive treatments. If the disease spreads within the well-defined neighbourhood, the local strategy is optimal unless the cost of a single vaccine is much higher than the cost associated with hospitalization. In the latter case, it is most cost-effective to refrain from prevention. Destruction of local correlations, either by long-range (small-world) links or by inclusion of many initial foci, expands the range of costs for which the NS is most cost-effective. The GS emerges for the case when the cost of prevention is much lower than the cost of treatment and there is a substantial non-local component in the disease spread. We also show that local treatment is only desirable if the disease spreads on a small-world network with sufficiently few long-range links; otherwise it is optimal to treat globally. In the mean-field case, there are only two optimal solutions, to treat all if the cost of the vaccine is low and to treat nobody if it is high. The basic reproduction ratio, R(0), does not depend on the rate of responsive treatment in this case and the disease always invades

  4. The spread and effect of HIV-1 infection in sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buvé, Anne; Bishikwabo-Nsarhaza, Kizito; Mutangadura, Gladys

    2002-06-08

    Africa is the continent most severely affected by the global HIV-1 epidemic, with east and southern Africa in general more severely affected than west and central Africa. Differences in the spread of the epidemic can be accounted for by a complex interplay of sexual behaviour and biological factors that affect the probability of HIV-1 transmission per sex act. Sexual behaviour patterns are determined by cultural and socioeconomic contexts. In sub-Saharan Africa, some traditions and socioeconomic developments have contributed to the extensive spread of HIV-1 infection, including the subordinate position of women, impoverishment and decline of social services, rapid urbanisation and modernisation, and wars and conflicts. Populations in many parts of Africa are becoming trapped in a vicious circle as the HIV-1 epidemic leads to high mortality rates in young and economically productive age groups, and thus leads to further impoverishment. Interventions to control HIV-1 should not only target individuals, but also aim to change those aspects of cultural and socioeconomic context that increase the vulnerability to HIV-1 of people and communities.

  5. Rotated Walsh-Hadamard Spreading with Robust Channel Estimation for a Coded MC-CDMA System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raulefs Ronald

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigate rotated Walsh-Hadamard spreading matrices for a broadband MC-CDMA system with robust channel estimation in the synchronous downlink. The similarities between rotated spreading and signal space diversity are outlined. In a multiuser MC-CDMA system, possible performance improvements are based on the chosen detector, the channel code, and its Hamming distance. By applying rotated spreading in comparison to a standard Walsh-Hadamard spreading code, a higher throughput can be achieved. As combining the channel code and the spreading code forms a concatenated code, the overall minimum Hamming distance of the concatenated code increases. This asymptotically results in an improvement of the bit error rate for high signal-to-noise ratio. Higher convolutional channel code rates are mostly generated by puncturing good low-rate channel codes. The overall Hamming distance decreases significantly for the punctured channel codes. Higher channel code rates are favorable for MC-CDMA, as MC-CDMA utilizes diversity more efficiently compared to pure OFDMA. The application of rotated spreading in an MC-CDMA system allows exploiting diversity even further. We demonstrate that the rotated spreading gain is still present for a robust pilot-aided channel estimator. In a well-designed system, rotated spreading extends the performance by using a maximum likelihood detector with robust channel estimation at the receiver by about 1 dB.

  6. Modelling and mapping spread in pest risk analysis: a generic approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kehlenbeck, H.; Robinet, C.; Werf, van der W.; Kriticos, D.; Reynaud, P.; Baker, R.

    2012-01-01

    Assessing the likelihood and magnitude of spread is one of the cornerstones of pest risk analysis (PRA), and is usually based on qualitative expert judgment. This paper proposes a suite of simple ecological models to support risk assessors who also wish to estimate the rate and extent of spread,

  7. Influencing factors on vegetative cogongrass spread into pine forests on the Mississippi gulf coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jon D. Prevost; Donald L. Grebner; Jeanne C. Jones; Stephen C. Grado; Keith L. Belli; John D. Byrd

    2010-01-01

    Cogongrass [Imperata cylindrical (L.) Beauv.] is an invasive species that is spreading throughout forested ecosystems across the Southeastern United States. A field experiment was conducted in Hancock County, MS to determine if mid-rotation mechanical disturbance increased the rate of growth and spread of roadside cogongrass patches into adjacent...

  8. Dynamic wetting and spreading and the role of topography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McHale, Glen; Newton, Michael I; Shirtcliffe, Neil J

    2009-01-01

    The spreading of a droplet of a liquid on a smooth solid surface is often described by the Hoffman-de Gennes law, which relates the edge speed, v e , to the dynamic and equilibrium contact angles θ and θ e through v e ∝θ(θ 2 -θ e 2 ). When the liquid wets the surface completely and the equilibrium contact angle vanishes, the edge speed is proportional to the cube of the dynamic contact angle. When the droplets are non-volatile this law gives rise to simple power laws with time for the contact angle and other parameters in both the capillary and gravity dominated regimes. On a textured surface, the equilibrium state of a droplet is strongly modified due to the amplification of the surface chemistry induced tendencies by the topography. The most common example is the conversion of hydrophobicity into superhydrophobicity. However, when the surface chemistry favors partial wetting, topography can result in a droplet spreading completely. A further, frequently overlooked consequence of topography is that the rate at which an out-of-equilibrium droplet spreads should also be modified. In this report, we review ideas related to the idea of topography induced wetting and consider how this may relate to dynamic wetting and the rate of droplet spreading. We consider the effect of the Wenzel and Cassie-Baxter equations on the driving forces and discuss how these may modify power laws for spreading. We relate the ideas to both the hydrodynamic viscous dissipation model and the molecular-kinetic theory of spreading. This suggests roughness and solid surface fraction modified Hoffman-de Gennes laws relating the edge speed to the dynamic and equilibrium contact angle. We also consider the spreading of small droplets and stripes of non-volatile liquids in the capillary regime and large droplets in the gravity regime. In the case of small non-volatile droplets spreading completely, a roughness modified Tanner's law giving the dependence of dynamic contact angle on time is

  9. Rate of Speed

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — Rate of spread was modeled using FlamMap, an interagency fire behavior mapping and analysis program that computes potential fire behavior characteristics. The tool...

  10. Spreading to localized targets in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Ye; Ma, Long; Zeng, An; Wang, Wen-Xu

    2016-12-01

    As an important type of dynamics on complex networks, spreading is widely used to model many real processes such as the epidemic contagion and information propagation. One of the most significant research questions in spreading is to rank the spreading ability of nodes in the network. To this end, substantial effort has been made and a variety of effective methods have been proposed. These methods usually define the spreading ability of a node as the number of finally infected nodes given that the spreading is initialized from the node. However, in many real cases such as advertising and news propagation, the spreading only aims to cover a specific group of nodes. Therefore, it is necessary to study the spreading ability of nodes towards localized targets in complex networks. In this paper, we propose a reversed local path algorithm for this problem. Simulation results show that our method outperforms the existing methods in identifying the influential nodes with respect to these localized targets. Moreover, the influential spreaders identified by our method can effectively avoid infecting the non-target nodes in the spreading process.

  11. Epidemic spreading through direct and indirect interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganguly, Niloy; Krueger, Tyll; Mukherjee, Animesh; Saha, Sudipta

    2014-09-01

    In this paper we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic dynamics, considering a specialized setting where popular places (termed passive entities) are visited by agents (termed active entities). We consider two types of spreading dynamics: direct spreading, where the active entities infect each other while visiting the passive entities, and indirect spreading, where the passive entities act as carriers and the infection is spread via them. We investigate in particular the effect of selection strategy, i.e., the way passive entities are chosen, in the spread of epidemics. We introduce a mathematical framework to study the effect of an arbitrary selection strategy and derive formulas for prevalence, extinction probabilities, and epidemic thresholds for both indirect and direct spreading. We also obtain a very simple relationship between the extinction probability and the prevalence. We pay special attention to preferential selection and derive exact formulas. The analysis reveals that an increase in the diversity in the selection process lowers the epidemic thresholds. Comparing the direct and indirect spreading, we identify regions in the parameter space where the prevalence of the indirect spreading is higher than the direct one.

  12. Fluorescent visualization of a spreading surfactant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fallest, David W; Lichtenberger, Adele M; Fox, Christopher J; Daniels, Karen E, E-mail: kdaniel@ncsu.ed [Department of Physics, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695 (United States)

    2010-07-15

    The spreading of surfactants on thin films is an industrially and medically important phenomenon, but the dynamics are highly nonlinear and visualization of the surfactant dynamics has been a long-standing experimental challenge. We perform the first quantitative, spatiotemporally resolved measurements of the spreading of an insoluble surfactant on a thin fluid layer. During the spreading process, we directly observe both the radial height profile of the spreading droplet and the spatial distribution of the fluorescently tagged surfactant. We find that the leading edge of a spreading circular layer of surfactant forms a Marangoni ridge in the underlying fluid, with a trough trailing the ridge as expected. However, several novel features are observed using the fluorescence technique, including a peak in the surfactant concentration that trails the leading edge, and a flat, monolayer-scale spreading film that differs from concentration profiles predicted by current models. Both the Marangoni ridge and the surfactant leading edge can be described to spread as R{approx}t{sup {delta}}. We find spreading exponents {delta}{sub H}{approx}0.30 and {delta}{sub {Gamma}}{approx}0.22 for the ridge peak and surfactant leading edge, respectively, which are in good agreement with theoretical predictions of {delta}=1/4. In addition, we observe that the surfactant leading edge initially leads the peak of the Marangoni ridge, with the peak later catching up to the leading edge.

  13. Epidemic cholera spreads like wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Manojit; Zinck, Richard D.; Bouma, Menno J.; Pascual, Mercedes

    2014-01-01

    Cholera is on the rise globally, especially epidemic cholera which is characterized by intermittent and unpredictable outbreaks that punctuate periods of regional disease fade-out. These epidemic dynamics remain however poorly understood. Here we examine records for epidemic cholera over both contemporary and historical timelines, from Africa (1990-2006) and former British India (1882-1939). We find that the frequency distribution of outbreak size is fat-tailed, scaling approximately as a power-law. This pattern which shows strong parallels with wildfires is incompatible with existing cholera models developed for endemic regions, as it implies a fundamental role for stochastic transmission and local depletion of susceptible hosts. Application of a recently developed forest-fire model indicates that epidemic cholera dynamics are located above a critical phase transition and propagate in similar ways to aggressive wildfires. These findings have implications for the effectiveness of control measures and the mechanisms that ultimately limit the size of outbreaks.

  14. Epidemics spread in heterogeneous populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capała, Karol; Dybiec, Bartłomiej

    2017-05-01

    Individuals building populations are subject to variability. This variability affects progress of epidemic outbreaks, because individuals tend to be more or less resistant. Individuals also differ with respect to their recovery rate. Here, properties of the SIR model in inhomogeneous populations are studied. It is shown that a small change in model's parameters, e.g. recovery or infection rate, can substantially change properties of final states which is especially well-visible in distributions of the epidemic size. In addition to the epidemic size and radii distributions, the paper explores first passage time properties of epidemic outbreaks.

  15. Spread and Liquidity Issues: A markets comparison

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Strašek Sebastjan

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The financial crises are closely connected with spread changes and liquidity issues. After defining and addressing spread considerations, we research in this paper the topic of liquidity issues in times of economic crisis. We analyse the liquidity effects as recorded on spreads of securities from different markets. We stipulate that higher international risk aversion in times of financial crises coincides with widening security spreads. The paper then introduces liquidity as a risk factor into the standard value-at-risk framework, using GARCH methodology. The comparison of results of these models suggests that the size of the tested markets does not have a strong effect on the models. Thus, we find that spread analysis is an appropriate tool for analysing liquidity issues during a financial crisis.

  16. Global Governance Mechanisms to Address Antimicrobial Resistance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padiyara, Ponnu; Inoue, Hajime; Sprenger, Marc

    2018-01-01

    Since their discovery, antibiotics, and more broadly, antimicrobials, have been a cornerstone of modern medicine. But the overuse and misuse of these drugs have led to rising rates of antimicrobial resistance, which occurs when bacteria adapt in ways that render antibiotics ineffective. A world without effective antibiotics can have drastic impacts on population health, global development, and the global economy. As a global common good, antibiotic effectiveness is vulnerable to the tragedy of the commons, where a shared limited resource is overused by a community when each individual exploits the finite resource for their own benefit. A borderless threat like antimicrobial resistance requires global governance mechanisms to mitigate its emergence and spread, and it is the responsibility of all countries and relevant multilateral organizations. These mechanisms can be in the form of legally binding global governance mechanisms such as treaties and regulatory standards or nonbinding mechanisms such as political declarations, resolutions, or guidelines. In this article, we argue that while both are effective methods, the strong, swift, and coordinated action needed to address rising rates of antimicrobial resistance will be better served through legally binding governance mechanisms.

  17. Globalization, culture and psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melluish, Steve

    2014-10-01

    This article outlines the cultural and psychological effects of globalization. It looks at the impact of globalization on identity; ideas of privacy and intimacy; the way we understand and perceive psychological distress; and the development of the profession of psychology around the world. The article takes a critical perspective on globalization, seeing it as aligned with the spread of neoliberal capitalism, a tendency towards cultural homogenization, the imposition of dominant 'global north' ideas and the resultant growing inequalities in health and well-being. However, it also argues that the increased interconnectedness created by globalization allows for greater acknowledgement of our common humanity and for collective efforts to be developed to tackle what are increasingly global problems. This requires the development of more nuanced understandings of cultural differences and of indigenous psychologies.

  18. Effects of nitrogen application rates on net annual global warming potential and greenhouse gas intensity in double-rice cropping systems of the Southern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Zhongdu; Chen, Fu; Zhang, Hailin; Liu, Shengli

    2016-12-01

    The net global warming potential (NGWP) and net greenhouse gas intensity (NGHGI) of double-rice cropping systems are not well documented. We measured the NGWP and NGHGI including soil organic carbon (SOC) change and indirect emissions (IE) from double-crop rice fields with fertilizing systems in Southern China. These experiments with three different nitrogen (N) application rates since 2012 are as follows: 165 kgN ha -1 for early rice and 225 kgN ha -1 for late rice (N1), which was the local N application rates as the control; 135 kgN ha -1 for early rice and 180 kgN ha -1 for late rice (N2, 20 % reduction); and 105 kgN ha -1 for early rice and 135 kgN ha -1 for late rice (N3, 40 % reduction). Results showed that yields increased with the increase of N application rate, but without significant difference between N1 and N2 plots. Annual SOC sequestration rate under N1 was estimated to be 1.15 MgC ha -1  year -1 , which was higher than those under other fertilizing systems. Higher N application tended to increase CH 4 emissions during the flooded rice season and significantly increased N 2 O emissions from drained soils during the nonrice season, ranking as N1 > N2 > N3 with significant difference (P < 0.05). Two-year average IE has a huge contribution to GHG emissions mainly coming from the higher N inputs in the double-rice cropping system. Reducing N fertilizer usage can effectively decrease the NGWP and NGHGI in the double-rice cropping system, with the lowest NGHGI obtained in the N2 plot (0.99 kg CO 2 -eq kg -1 yield year -1 ). The results suggested that agricultural economic viability and GHG mitigation can be simultaneously achieved by properly reducing N fertilizer application in double-rice cropping systems.

  19. Physically Protected Spread Spectrum Communications

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-14

    c) it shows bit error rate (BER) performance with negligible degradation in SNR, compared to that of a coherent FH system. These advantages of the...Advanced),” IEEE International Conference on Communication Systems (ICCS), Singapore , pp. 146–150, Nov. 2010. [4] K.S. Gong, “Performance of Diversity

  20. Validation of the 17-item Hamilton Depression Rating Scale definition of response for adults with major depressive disorder using equipercentile linking to Clinical Global Impression scale ratings: analysis of Pharmacogenomic Research Network Antidepressant Medication Pharmacogenomic Study (PGRN-AMPS) data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bobo, William V; Angleró, Gabriela C; Jenkins, Gregory; Hall-Flavin, Daniel K; Weinshilboum, Richard; Biernacka, Joanna M

    2016-05-01

    The study aimed to define thresholds of clinically significant change in 17-item Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HDRS-17) scores using the Clinical Global Impression-Improvement (CGI-I) Scale as a gold standard. We conducted a secondary analysis of individual patient data from the Pharmacogenomic Research Network Antidepressant Medication Pharmacogenomic Study, an 8-week, single-arm clinical trial of citalopram or escitalopram treatment of adults with major depression. We used equipercentile linking to identify levels of absolute and percent change in HDRS-17 scores that equated with scores on the CGI-I at 4 and 8 weeks. Additional analyses equated changes in the HDRS-7 and Bech-6 scale scores with CGI-I scores. A CGI-I score of 2 (much improved) corresponded to an absolute decrease (improvement) in HDRS-17 total score of 11 points and a percent decrease of 50-57%, from baseline values. Similar results were observed for percent change in HDRS-7 and Bech-6 scores. Larger absolute (but not percent) decreases in HDRS-17 scores equated with CGI-I scores of 2 in persons with higher baseline depression severity. Our results support the consensus definition of response based on HDRS-17 scores (>50% decrease from baseline). A similar definition of response may apply to the HDRS-7 and Bech-6. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  1. Globalization and the Changing Epidemiology of Hepatitis A Virus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobsen, Kathryn H

    2018-03-02

    Increased economic interdependence, social integration, and other aspects of globalization are contributing to significant changes in hepatitis A epidemiology. Globally, the incidence of hepatitis A virus (HAV) infection is decreasing, the age at midpoint of population immunity (AMPI) is increasing, and the proportion of symptomatic cases is increasing as the average age at infection increases. In low-income countries, HAV remains endemic but improved water and sanitation systems are reducing transmission rates among young children. In high-income countries, most adults remain susceptible to HAV and foodborne outbreaks are becoming more frequent. Middle-income countries have diverse epidemiological profiles, and they play important roles in the global spread of HAV through international trade and travel. Future changes in the epidemiology of hepatitis A will be heavily influenced by globalization processes. Copyright © 2018 Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press; all rights reserved.

  2. Does media coverage influence the spread of drug addiction?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Mingju; Liu, Sanyang; Li, Jun

    2017-09-01

    In this paper, a three dimensional drug model is constructed to investigate the impact of media coverage on the spread and control of drug addiction. The dynamical behavior of the model is studied by using the basic reproduction number R0. The drug-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if R0 drug addiction equilibrium is locally stable if R0 > 1. The results demonstrate that the media effect in human population cannot change the stabilities of equilibria but can affect the number of drug addicts. Sensitivity analyses are performed to seek for effective control measures for drug treatment. Numerical simulations are given to support the theoretical results.

  3. Effects of Evaporation/Condensation on Spreading and Contact Angle of a Volatile Liquid Drop

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Nengli; Chao, David F.; Singh, Bhim S. (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    Effects of evaporation/condensation on spreading and contact angle were experimentally studied. A sessile drop of R-113 was tested at different vapor environments to determine the effects of evaporation/condensation on the evolution of contact diameter and contact angle of the drop. Condensation on the drop surface occurs at both the saturated and a nonsaturated vapor environments and promotes the spreading. When the drop is placed in the saturated vapor environment it tends to completely wetting and spreads rapidly. In a nonsaturated vapor environment, the evolution of the sessile drop is divided three stages: condensation-spreading stage, evaporation-retracting stage and rapid contracting stage. In the first stage the drop behaves as in the saturated environment. In the evaporation -retracting stage, the competition between spreading and evaporation of the drop determines the evolution characteristics of the contact diameter and the contact angle. A lower evaporation rate struggles against the spreading power to turn the drop from spreading to retracting with a continuous increase of the contact angle. The drop placed in open air has a much higher evaporation rate. The strong evaporation suppresses the spreading and accelerates the retraction of the drop with a linear decrease of the contact diameter. The contraction of the evaporating drops is gradually accelerated when the contact diameter decreases to 3 min and less till drying up, though the evaporation rate is gradually slowing down.

  4. Spread spectrum mobile communication experiment using ETS-V satellite

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ikegami, Tetsushi; Suzuki, Ryutaro; Kadowaki, Naoto; Taira, Shinichi; Sato, Nobuyasu

    1990-01-01

    The spread spectrum technique is attractive for application to mobile satellite communications, because of its random access capability, immunity to inter-system interference, and robustness to overloading. A novel direct sequence spread spectrum communication equipment is developed for land mobile satellite applications. The equipment is developed based on a matched filter technique to improve the initial acquisition performance. The data rate is 2.4 kilobits per sec. and the PN clock rate is 2.4552 mega-Hz. This equipment also has a function of measuring the multipath delay profile of land mobile satellite channel, making use of a correlation property of a PN code. This paper gives an outline of the equipment and the field test results with ETS-V satellite.

  5. Development of Pistachio (Pistacia vera L.) spread.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shakerardekani, Ahmad; Karim, Roselina; Ghazali, Hasanah Mohd; Chin, Nyuk Ling

    2013-03-01

    Pistachio nut (Pistacia vera L.) is one of the most delicious and nutritious nuts in the world. Pistachio spreads were developed using pistachio paste as the main component, icing sugar, soy protein isolate (SPI), and red palm oil (RPO), at different ratios. The highest mean scores of all the sensory attributes were depicted by spreads that were made without addition of SPI. It was found that the work of shear was 0 to 11.0 kg s for an acceptable spread. Sensory spreadability, overall texture, spreadability, and overall acceptability were negatively correlated (R > 0.83) with the work of shear of spreads. The findings indicated that the presence of RPO had a direct effect on the viscoelastic behavior of the pistachio spreads. The a values, which are related to the green color of the pistachio product ranged from 1.7 to 3.9 for spread without addition of RPO, and 4.0 to 5.3 in the presence of RPO. The development of pistachio spread would potentially increase the food uses of pistachio and introduce consumers with a healthier snack food. © 2013 Institute of Food Technologists®

  6. Assessment of Robotic Console Skills (ARCS): construct validity of a novel global rating scale for technical skills in robotically assisted surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, May; Purohit, Shreya; Mazanetz, Joshua; Allen, Whitney; Kreaden, Usha S; Curet, Myriam

    2018-01-01

    Skill assessment during robotically assisted surgery remains challenging. While the popularity of the Global Evaluative Assessment of Robotics Skills (GEARS) has grown, its lack of discrimination between independent console skills limits its usefulness. The purpose of this study was to evaluate construct validity and interrater reliability of a novel assessment designed to overcome this limitation. We created the Assessment of Robotic Console Skills (ARCS), a global rating scale with six console skill domains. Fifteen volunteers who were console surgeons for 0 ("novice"), 1-100 ("intermediate"), or >100 ("experienced") robotically assisted procedures performed three standardized tasks. Three blinded raters scored the task videos using ARCS, with a 5-point Likert scale for each skill domain. Scores were analyzed for evidence of construct validity and interrater reliability. Group demographics were indistinguishable except for the number of robotically assisted procedures performed (p = 0.001). The mean scores of experienced subjects exceeded those of novices in dexterity (3.8 > 1.4, p  1.8, p  2.2, p  1.9, p = 0.001), and force sensitivity (4.3 > 2.6, p  1.4, p = 0.002), field of view (2.8 > 1.8, p = 0.021), instrument visualization (3.2 > 2.2, p = 0.045), manipulator workspace (3.1 > 1.9, p = 0.004), and force sensitivity (3.7 > 2.6, p = 0.033). The mean scores of experienced subjects exceeded those of intermediates in dexterity (3.8 > 2.8, p = 0.003), field of view (4.1 > 2.8, p  3.2, p = 0.044). Rater agreement in each domain demonstrated statistically significant concordance (p skills plateau faster than others. Therefore, ARCS may be more useful than GEARS to evaluate distinct console skills. Future studies will examine why some domains did not adequately differentiate between subjects and applications for intraoperative use.

  7. Global Monitoring RSEM System for Crop Production by Incorporating Satellite-based Photosynthesis Rates and Anomaly Data of Sea Surface Temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaneko, D.; Sakuma, H.

    2014-12-01

    The first author has been developing RSEM crop-monitoring system using satellite-based assessment of photosynthesis, incorporating meteorological conditions. Crop production comprises of several stages and plural mechanisms based on leaf photosynthesis, surface energy balance, and the maturing of grains after fixation of CO2, along with water exchange through soil vegetation-atmosphere transfer. Grain production in prime countries appears to be randomly perturbed regionally and globally. Weather for crop plants reflects turbulent phenomena of convective and advection flows in atmosphere and surface boundary layer. It has been difficult for scientists to simulate and forecast weather correctly for sufficiently long terms to crop harvesting. However, severely poor harvests related to continental events must originate from a consistent mechanism of abnormal energetic flow in the atmosphere through both land and oceans. It should be remembered that oceans have more than 100 times of energy storage compared to atmosphere and ocean currents represent gigantic energy flows, strongly affecting climate. Anomalies of Sea Surface Temperature (SST), globally known as El Niño, Indian Ocean dipole, and Atlantic Niño etc., affect the seasonal climate on a continental scale. The authors aim to combine monitoring and seasonal forecasting, considering such mechanisms through land-ocean biosphere transfer. The present system produces assessments for all continents, specifically monitoring agricultural fields of main crops. Historical regions of poor and good harvests are compared with distributions of SST anomalies, which are provided by NASA GSFC. Those comparisons fairly suggest that the Worst harvest in 1993 and the Best in 1994 relate to the offshore distribution of low temperature anomalies and high gaps in ocean surface temperatures. However, high-temperature anomalies supported good harvests because of sufficient solar radiation for photosynthesis, and poor harvests because

  8. Pricing the option adjust spread of Brazilian Eurobonds

    OpenAIRE

    Gonçalves, Franklin de O.

    1997-01-01

    This paper presents results of a pricing system to compute the option adjusted spread ("DAS") of Eurobonds issued by Brazilian firms. The system computes the "DAS" over US treasury rates taktng imo account the embedded options present on these bonds. These options can be calls ("callable bond"), puts ("putable bond") or combinations ("callable and putable bond"). The pricing model takes into account the evolution of the term structure along time, is compatible with the observab...

  9. Experimental study on the effects of AC electric fields on flame spreading over polyethylene-insulated electric-wire

    KAUST Repository

    Jin, Young Kyu

    2010-11-01

    In this present study, we experimentally investigated the effects of electric fields on the characteristics of flames spreading over electric-wires with AC fields. The dependence of the rate at which a flame spreads over polyethylene-insulated wires on the frequency and amplitude of the applied AC electric field was examined. The spreading of the flame can be categorized into linear spreading and non-linearly accelerated spreading of flame. This categorization is based on the axial distribution of the field strength of the applied electric field. The rate at which the flame spreads is highly dependent on the inclined direction of the wire fire. It could be possible to explain the spreading of the flame on the basis of thermal balance. © 2010 The Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers.

  10. Avian Influenza: a global threat needing a global solution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Koh GCH

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract There have been three influenza pandemics since the 1900s, of which the 1919–1919 flu pandemic had the highest mortality rates. The influenza virus infects both humans and birds, and mutates using two mechanisms: antigenic drift and antigenic shift. Currently, the H5N1 avian flu virus is limited to outbreaks among poultry and persons in direct contact to infected poultry, but the mortality rate among infected humans is high. Avian influenza (AI is endemic in Asia as a result of unregulated poultry rearing in rural areas. Such birds often live in close proximity to humans and this increases the chance of genetic re-assortment between avian and human influenza viruses which may produce a mutant strain that is easily transmitted between humans. Once this happens, a global pandemic is likely. Unlike SARS, a person with influenza infection is contagious before the onset of case-defining symptoms which limits the effectiveness of case isolation as a control strategy. Researchers have shown that carefully orchestrated of public health measures could potentially limit the spread of an AI pandemic if implemented soon after the first cases appear. To successfully contain and control an AI pandemic, both national and global strategies are needed. National strategies include source surveillance and control, adequate stockpiles of anti-viral agents, timely production of flu vaccines and healthcare system readiness. Global strategies such as early integrated response, curbing the disease outbreak at source, utilization of global resources, continuing research and open communication are also critical.

  11. Measuring and Controlling the Energy Spread in CEBAF

    CERN Document Server

    Krafft, G A; Dickson, R W; Kazimi, R; Lebedev, V A; Tiefenback, M G

    2000-01-01

    As compared to electron storage rings, one advantage of recirculating linear accelerators is that the beam properties at target are no longer dominated by the equilibrium between quantum radiative diffusion and radiation damping because new beam is continually injected into the accelerator. This allows the energy spread from a CEBAF-type machine to be relatively small; the measured energy spread from CEBAF at 4 GeV is less than 100 parts per million accumulated over times of order several days. In this paper, the various subsystems contributing to the energy spread of a CEBAF-type accelerator are reviewed, as well as the machine diagnostics and controls that are used in CEBAF to ensure that a small energy spread is provided during routine running. Examples of relevant developments are (1) stable short bunches emerging from the injector, (2) precision timing and phasing of the linacs with respect to the centroid of the beam bunches on all passes, (3) implementing 2 kHz sampling rate feedback systems for final ...

  12. Term structure of sovereign spreads: a contingent claim model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katia Rocha

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a simple structural model to estimate the termstructure and the implied default probability of a selected group of emerging countries, which account for 54% of the JPMorgan EMBIG index on average for the period 2000-2005. The real exchange rate dynamic, modeled as a pure diffusion process, is assumed to trigger default. The calibrated model generates sovereign spread curves consistent to market data. The results suggest that the market is systematically overpricing spreads for Brazil in 100 basis points, whereas for Mexico, Russia and Turkey the model is able to reproduce the market behavior.Este trabalho propõe um modelo estrutural para estimar a estrutura a termo e a probabilidade implícita de default de países emergentes que representam, em média, 54% do índice EMBIG do JPMorgan no período de 2000-2005. A taxa de câmbio real, modelada como um processo de difusão simples, é considerada como indicativa de default. O modelo calibrado gera a estrutura a termo dos spreads consistente com dados de mercado, indicando que o mercado sistematicamente sobre-estima os spreads para o Brasil em 100 pontos base na média, enquanto para México, Rússia e Turquia reproduz o comportamento do mercado.

  13. Credit Spreads Across the Business Cycle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Mads Stenbo

    This paper studies how corporate bond spreads vary with the business cycle. I show that both level and slope of empirical credit spread curves are correlated with the state of the economy, and I link this to variation in idiosyncratic jump risk. I develop a structural credit risk model...... that accounts for both business cycle and jump risk, and show by estimation that the model captures the counter-cyclical level and pro-cyclical slope of empirical credit spread curves. In addition, I provide a new procedure for estimation of idiosyncratic jump risk, which is consistent with observed shocks...

  14. Modelling unidirectional liquid spreading on slanted microposts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cavalli, Andrea; Blow, Matthew L.; Yeomans, Julia M.

    2013-01-01

    A lattice Boltzmann algorithm is used to simulate the slow spreading of drops on a surface patterned with slanted micro-posts. Gibb's pinning of the interface on the sides or top of the posts leads to unidirectional spreading over a wide range of contact angles and inclination angles of the posts....... Regimes for spreading in no, one or two directions are identified, and shown to agree well with a two-dimensional theory proposed in Chu, Xiao and Wang. A more detailed numerical analysis of the contact line shapes allows us to understand deviations from the two dimensional model, and to identify...

  15. Does high yield spread dampen economic growth? : the case of US-Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yutaka Kurihara

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This article focuses on the relationship between the United States' and Japan's yield spread of interest rates and economic growth in Japan. The yield spread is defined in this article as the difference between the Japanese government bond yield minus the US government bond yield. Some studies have tackled this issue and found a negative relationship between the yield spread and economic growth; however, recent studies have shown no or a weak relationship. This problem has not yet consensus in spite of its importance. As the Japanese interest rate has been quite low since the adoption of the zero interest rate policy at the end of 1990s, the situation may change the results. The empirical results show that reliability of yield spread as a leading indicator of output growth exists in Japan; however, term structure of interest rate is not related to economic growth.

  16. Elevated global cerebral blood flow, oxygen extraction fraction and unchanged metabolic rate of oxygen in young adults with end-stage renal disease: an MRI study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zheng, Gang; Lou, Yaxian; Pan, Zhiying; Liu, Ya [Medical School of Nanjing University, Department of Medical Imaging, Jinling Hospital, Nanjing, Jiangsu (China); Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, College of Aivil Aviation, Nanjing, Jiangsu (China); Wen, Jiqiu; Li, Xue; Zhang, Zhe [Medical School of Nanjing University, National Clinical Research Center of Kidney Diseases, Jinling Hospital, Nanjing, Jiangsu (China); Lu, Hanzhang [University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Advanced Imaging Research Center, Dallas, TX (United States); Liu, Wei [Siemens Shenzhen Magnetic Resonance Ltd., Shenzhen, Guangdong (China); Liu, Hui [Siemens MR NEA Collaboration, Siemens Ltd., Shanghai (China); Chen, Huijuan; Kong, Xiang; Luo, Song; Jiang, Xiaolu; Zhang, Zongjun; Zhang, Long Jiang; Lu, Guang Ming [Medical School of Nanjing University, Department of Medical Imaging, Jinling Hospital, Nanjing, Jiangsu (China)

    2016-06-15

    To noninvasively assess global cerebral blood flow (CBF), oxygen extraction fraction (OEF) and cerebral metabolic rate of oxygen (CMRO{sub 2}) in young adults with end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Thirty-six patients and 38 healthy volunteers were included and took part in MR examinations, blood and neuropsychological tests. CBF and OEF were measured by phase-contrast and T2-relaxation-under-spin-tagging MRI techniques, respectively. CMRO{sub 2} was computed from CBF, OEF and hematocrit according to Fick's principle. Correlations were performed between MR measurements, blood biochemistry measurements and neuropsychological test scores. Compared with controls, ESRD patients had elevated CBF (72.9 ± 12.5 vs. 63.8 ± 8.5 ml min{sup -1} 100 g{sup -1}, P < 0.001), elevated OEF (47.2 ± 10.2 vs. 35.8 ± 5.4 %, P < 0.001), but unaffected CMRO{sub 2} (199.5 ± 36.4 vs. 193.8 ± 28.6 μmol O{sub 2} min{sup -1} 100 g{sup -1}, P = 0.879). Hematocrit negatively correlated with CBF (r = -0.640, P < 0.001) and OEF (r = -0.701, P < 0.001), but not with CMRO{sub 2}. Altered neuropsychological test scores of ESRD patients were associated with OEF and CBF, but not with CMRO{sub 2}. There were weak relationships between eGFR and hematocrit (r = 0.308, P = 0.068) or CBF (r = 0.318, P = 0.059). Our findings suggested that anaemic young adults with ESRD may afford higher CBF and OEF to maintain a normal CMRO{sub 2}. Despite this compensatory process, however, cognitive function was still impaired and its severity was correlated with their CBF and OEF abnormality. (orig.)

  17. Elevated global cerebral blood flow, oxygen extraction fraction and unchanged metabolic rate of oxygen in young adults with end-stage renal disease: an MRI study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zheng, Gang; Lou, Yaxian; Pan, Zhiying; Liu, Ya; Wen, Jiqiu; Li, Xue; Zhang, Zhe; Lu, Hanzhang; Liu, Wei; Liu, Hui; Chen, Huijuan; Kong, Xiang; Luo, Song; Jiang, Xiaolu; Zhang, Zongjun; Zhang, Long Jiang; Lu, Guang Ming

    2016-01-01

    To noninvasively assess global cerebral blood flow (CBF), oxygen extraction fraction (OEF) and cerebral metabolic rate of oxygen (CMRO 2 ) in young adults with end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Thirty-six patients and 38 healthy volunteers were included and took part in MR examinations, blood and neuropsychological tests. CBF and OEF were measured by phase-contrast and T2-relaxation-under-spin-tagging MRI techniques, respectively. CMRO 2 was computed from CBF, OEF and hematocrit according to Fick's principle. Correlations were performed between MR measurements, blood biochemistry measurements and neuropsychological test scores. Compared with controls, ESRD patients had elevated CBF (72.9 ± 12.5 vs. 63.8 ± 8.5 ml min -1 100 g -1 , P < 0.001), elevated OEF (47.2 ± 10.2 vs. 35.8 ± 5.4 %, P < 0.001), but unaffected CMRO 2 (199.5 ± 36.4 vs. 193.8 ± 28.6 μmol O 2 min -1 100 g -1 , P = 0.879). Hematocrit negatively correlated with CBF (r = -0.640, P < 0.001) and OEF (r = -0.701, P < 0.001), but not with CMRO 2 . Altered neuropsychological test scores of ESRD patients were associated with OEF and CBF, but not with CMRO 2 . There were weak relationships between eGFR and hematocrit (r = 0.308, P = 0.068) or CBF (r = 0.318, P = 0.059). Our findings suggested that anaemic young adults with ESRD may afford higher CBF and OEF to maintain a normal CMRO 2 . Despite this compensatory process, however, cognitive function was still impaired and its severity was correlated with their CBF and OEF abnormality. (orig.)

  18. Epidemic spreading in a hierarchical social network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grabowski, A; Kosiński, R A

    2004-09-01

    A model of epidemic spreading in a population with a hierarchical structure of interpersonal interactions is described and investigated numerically. The structure of interpersonal connections is based on a scale-free network. Spatial localization of individuals belonging to different social groups, and the mobility of a contemporary community, as well as the effectiveness of different interpersonal interactions, are taken into account. Typical relations characterizing the spreading process, like a range of epidemic and epidemic curves, are discussed. The influence of preventive vaccinations on the spreading process is investigated. The critical value of preventively vaccinated individuals that is sufficient for the suppression of an epidemic is calculated. Our results are compared with solutions of the master equation for the spreading process and good agreement of the character of this process is found.

  19. Heterogeneous incidence and propagation of spreading depolarizations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufmann, Dan; Theriot, Jeremy J; Zyuzin, Jekaterina; Service, C Austin; Chang, Joshua C; Tang, Y Tanye; Bogdanov, Vladimir B; Multon, Sylvie; Schoenen, Jean; Ju, Y Sungtaek

    2016-01-01

    Spreading depolarizations are implicated in a diverse set of neurologic diseases. They are unusual forms of nervous system activity in that they propagate very slowly and approximately concentrically, apparently not respecting the anatomic, synaptic, functional, or vascular architecture of the brain. However, there is evidence that spreading depolarizations are not truly concentric, isotropic, or homogeneous, either in space or in time. Here we present evidence from KCl-induced spreading depolarizations, in mouse and rat, in vivo and in vitro, showing the great variability that these depolarizations can exhibit. This variability can help inform the mechanistic understanding of spreading depolarizations, and it has implications for their phenomenology in neurologic disease. PMID:27562866

  20. Interference management using direct sequence spread spectrum ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Interference management using direct sequence spread spectrum (DSSS) technique ... Journal of Fundamental and Applied Sciences ... Keywords: DSSS, LTE network; Wi-Fi network; SINR; interference management and interference power.

  1. Tectonic microplates in a wax model of sea-floor spreading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Katz, Richard F; Ragnarsson, Rolf; Bodenschatz, Eberhard

    2005-01-01

    Rotating, growing microplates are observed in a wax analogue model of sea-floor spreading. Wax microplates are kinematically similar to sea-floor tectonic microplates in terms of spreading rate and growth rate. Furthermore, their spiral pseudofault geometry is quantitatively consistent with Schouten's oceanic microplate model. These results suggest that Schouten's edge-driven microplate model captures the kinematics of tectonic microplate evolution on Earth. Based on the wax observations, a theory for the nucleation of overlapping spreading centres, the precursors of tectonic microplates, is developed

  2. Credit spread variability in U.S. business cycles: the Great Moderation versus the Great Recession

    OpenAIRE

    Hylton Hollander; Guangling Liu

    2014-01-01

    This paper establishes the prevailing financial factors that influence credit spread variability, and its impact on the U.S. business cycle over the Great Moderation and Great Recession periods. To do so, we develop a dynamic general equilibrium framework with a central role of financial intermediation and equity assets. Over the Great Moderation and Great Recession periods, we find an important role for bank market power (sticky rate adjustments and loan rate markups) on credit spread variab...

  3. Credit spread variability in U.S. business cycles: The Great Moderation versus the Great Recession

    OpenAIRE

    Hylton Hollander and Guangling Liu

    2014-01-01

    This paper establishes the prevailing financial factors that influence credit spread variability, and its impact on the U.S. business cycle over the Great Moderation and Great Recession periods. To do so, we develop a dynamic general equilibrium framework with a central role of financial intermediation and equity assets. Over the Great Moderation and Great Recession periods, we find an important role for bank market power (sticky rate adjustments and loan rate markups) on credit spread variab...

  4. Spreading paths in partially observed social networks

    OpenAIRE

    Onnela, Jukka-Pekka; Christakis, Nicholas A.

    2012-01-01

    Understanding how and how far information, behaviors, or pathogens spread in social networks is an important problem, having implications for both predicting the size of epidemics, as well as for planning effective interventions. There are, however, two main challenges for inferring spreading paths in real-world networks. One is the practical difficulty of observing a dynamic process on a network, and the other is the typical constraint of only partially observing a network. Using a static, s...

  5. Mapping the Spread of Mounted Warfare

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Turchin

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Military technology is one of the most important factors affecting the evolution of complex societies. In particular, mounted warfare, the use of horse-riders in military operations, revolutionized war as it spread to different parts of Eurasia and Africa during the Ancient and Medieval eras, and to the Americas during the Early Modern period. Here we use a variety of sources to map this spread.

  6. Ignition and spread of electrical wire fires

    OpenAIRE

    Huang, Xinyan

    2012-01-01

    Ignition of electrical wires by external heating is investigated in order to gain a better understanding of the initiation of electrical-wire fires. An ignition-to- spread model is developed to systematically explain ignition and the following transition to spread. The model predicts that for a higher-conductance wire it is more difficult to achieve ignition and the weak flame may extinguish during the transition phase because of a large conductive heat loss along the wire core. Wires with tw...

  7. Spreading characteristics of proprietary rectal steroid preparations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hay, D.J.

    1982-01-01

    Three types of rectal steroid preparation were labelled with Technetium 99 or Indium 111, and the extent of spread of each within the bowel was followed, immediately after administration and at 2hrs, using a gamma camera. Patients with ulcerative colitis were compared with controls. Results indicate that 'Colifoam' enema and 'Predsol' suppository act mainly in the rectum, but 'Predsol retention' enema spreads further into the colon, making it more useful for patients with extensive ulcerative colitis. (U.K.)

  8. Self-rated health and associated factors among older South Africans: evidence from the study on global ageing and adult health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nancy Phaswana-Mafuya

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Background: Population ageing has become significant in South African society, increasing the need to improve understandings of health and well-being among the aged. Objective: To describe the self-reported ratings of overall health and functioning, and to identify factors associated with self-rated health among older South Africans. Design: A national population-based cross-sectional survey, with a sample of 3,840 individuals aged 50 years and older, was completed in South Africa in 2008. Self-reported ratings of overall health and functioning were measured using a single self-reported health state covering nine health domains (used to generate the Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health (SAGE composite health state score. Disability was measured using the World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule II (WHODAS-II activities of daily living (ADLs, instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs, perceptions of well-being, and the World Health Organization Quality of Life index/metric (WHOQoL. Results: Overall, more than three quarters (76.8% of adults rated their health as moderate or good. On balance, men reported very good or good health more often than women (p<0.001. Older people (aged 70 years and above reported significantly poorer health status than those aged 50–59 (adjusted odds ratio (AOR 1.52; 95% confidence interval (CI 1.00–2.30. Indians and Blacks were significantly more likely to report poorer health status at (AOR = 4.01; 95% CI 1.27–12.70 and (AOR = 0.42; 95% CI 0.18_0.98; 30 p < 0.045, respectively, compared to Whites. Respondents with primary education (AOR = 1.83; 95% CI 1.19–2.80 and less than primary education (AOR = 1.94; 95% CI 1.37–2.76 were more likely to report poorer health compared to those with secondary education. In terms of wealth status, those in low wealth quintile (AOR = 2.02; 95% CI 1.14–3.57 and medium wealth quintile (AOR = 1.47; 95% CI 1.01–2.13 were more likely to report poorer

  9. Gossip spread in social network Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansson, Tobias

    2017-04-01

    Gossip almost inevitably arises in real social networks. In this article we investigate the relationship between the number of friends of a person and limits on how far gossip about that person can spread in the network. How far gossip travels in a network depends on two sets of factors: (a) factors determining gossip transmission from one person to the next and (b) factors determining network topology. For a simple model where gossip is spread among people who know the victim it is known that a standard scale-free network model produces a non-monotonic relationship between number of friends and expected relative spread of gossip, a pattern that is also observed in real networks (Lind et al., 2007). Here, we study gossip spread in two social network models (Toivonen et al., 2006; Vázquez, 2003) by exploring the parameter space of both models and fitting them to a real Facebook data set. Both models can produce the non-monotonic relationship of real networks more accurately than a standard scale-free model while also exhibiting more realistic variability in gossip spread. Of the two models, the one given in Vázquez (2003) best captures both the expected values and variability of gossip spread.

  10. Roles of the spreading scope and effectiveness in spreading dynamics on multiplex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ming; Liu, Run-Ran; Peng, Dan; Jia, Chun-Xiao; Wang, Bing-Hong

    2018-02-01

    Comparing with single networks, the multiplex networks bring two main effects on the spreading process among individuals. First, the pathogen or information can be transmitted to more individuals through different layers at one time, which enlarges the spreading scope. Second, through different layers, an individual can also transmit the pathogen or information to the same individuals more than once at one time, which makes the spreading more effective. To understand the different roles of the spreading scope and effectiveness, we propose an epidemic model on multiplex networks with link overlapping, where the spreading effectiveness of each interaction as well as the variety of channels (spreading scope) can be controlled by the number of overlapping links. We find that for Poisson degree distribution, increasing the epidemic scope (the first effect) is more efficient than enhancing epidemic probability (the second effect) to facilitate the spreading process. However, for power-law degree distribution, the effects of the two factors on the spreading dynamics become complicated. Enhancing epidemic probability makes pathogen or rumor easier to outbreak in a finite system. But after that increasing epidemic scopes is still more effective for a wide spreading. Theoretical results along with reasonable explanation for these phenomena are all given in this paper, which indicates that the epidemic scope could play an important role in the spreading dynamics.

  11. Global teaching of global seismology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, S.; Wysession, M.

    2005-12-01

    Our recent textbook, Introduction to Seismology, Earthquakes, & Earth Structure (Blackwell, 2003) is used in many countries. Part of the reason for this may be our deliberate attempt to write the book for an international audience. This effort appears in several ways. We stress seismology's long tradition of global data interchange. Our brief discussions of the science's history illustrate the contributions of scientists around the world. Perhaps most importantly, our discussions of earthquakes, tectonics, and seismic hazards take a global view. Many examples are from North America, whereas others are from other areas. Our view is that non-North American students should be exposed to North American examples that are type examples, and that North American students should be similarly exposed to examples elsewhere. For example, we illustrate how the Euler vector geometry changes a plate boundary from spreading, to strike-slip, to convergence using both the Pacific-North America boundary from the Gulf of California to Alaska and the Eurasia-Africa boundary from the Azores to the Mediterranean. We illustrate diffuse plate boundary zones using western North America, the Andes, the Himalayas, the Mediterranean, and the East Africa Rift. The subduction zone discussions examine Japan, Tonga, and Chile. We discuss significant earthquakes both in the U.S. and elsewhere, and explore hazard mitigation issues in different contexts. Both comments from foreign colleagues and our experience lecturing overseas indicate that this approach works well. Beyond the specifics of our text, we believe that such a global approach is facilitated by the international traditions of the earth sciences and the world youth culture that gives students worldwide common culture. For example, a video of the scene in New Madrid, Missouri that arose from a nonsensical earthquake prediction in 1990 elicits similar responses from American and European students.

  12. Ex-vessel corium spreading: results from the VULCANO spreading tests

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Journeau, Christophe E-mail: christophe.journeau@cea.fr; Boccaccio, Eric E-mail: eric.boccaccio@cea.fr; Brayer, Claude; Cognet, Gerard E-mail: gerard.cognet@cea.fr; Haquet, Jean-Francois E-mail: haquet@eloise.cad.cea.fr; Jegou, Claude E-mail: claude.jegou@cea.fr; Piluso, Pascal E-mail: pascal.piluso@cea.fr; Monerris, Jose E-mail: jose.monerris@cea.fr

    2003-07-01

    In the hypothetical case of a nuclear reactor severe accident, the reactor core could melt and form a mixture, called corium, of highly refractory oxides (UO{sub 2}, ZrO{sub 2}) and metallic or oxidized steel, that could eventually flow out of the vessel and mix with the basemat decomposition products (generally oxides such as SiO{sub 2}, Al{sub 2}O{sub 3}, CaO, Fe{sub 2}O{sub 3}, ...). For some years, the French Atomic Energy Commission (CEA) has launched an R and D program which aimed at providing the tools for improving the mastering of severe accidents. Within this program, the VULCANO experimental facility is operated to perform experiments with prototypic corium (corium of realistic chemical composition including depleted UO{sub 2}). This is coupled with the use of specific high-temperature instrumentation requiring in situ cross calibration. This paper is devoted to the 'spreading experiments' performed in the VULCANO facility, in which the effects of flow and solidification are studied. Due to the complex behavior of corium in the solidification range, an interdisciplinary approach has been used combining thermodynamics of multicomponent mixtures, rheological models of silicic semisolid materials, heat transfer at high temperatures, free-surface flow of a fluid with temperature-dependant properties. Twelve high-temperature spreading tests have been performed and analyzed. The main experimental results are the good spreadability of corium-concrete mixtures having large solidification ranges even with viscous silicic melts, the change of microstructure due to cooling rates, the occurrence of a large thermal contact resistance at the corium-substrate interface, the presence of a steep viscosity gradient at the surface, the transient concrete ablation. Furthermore, the experiments showed the presence of the gaseous inclusions in the melt even without concrete substrate. This gas release is linked to the local oxygen content in the melt which is

  13. Effects of q-profile structure on turbulence spreading: A fluctuation intensity transport analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yi, S.; Kwon, J. M. [National Fusion Research Institute, Eoeun-dong, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-333 (Korea, Republic of); Diamond, P. H. [National Fusion Research Institute, Eoeun-dong, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-333 (Korea, Republic of); Center for Astrophysics and Space Sciences and Department of Physics, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California 92093-0429 (United States); Hahm, T. S. [Department of Nuclear Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul 151-744 (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-09-15

    This paper studies effects of q-profile structure on turbulence spreading. It reports results of numerical experiments using global gyrokinetic simulations. We examine propagation of turbulence, triggered by an identical linear instability in a source region, into an adjacent, linearly stable region with variable q-profile. The numerical experiments are designed so as to separate the physics of turbulence spreading from that of linear stability. The strength of turbulence spreading is measured by the penetration depth of turbulence. Dynamics of spreading are elucidated by fluctuation intensity balance analysis, using a model intensity evolution equation which retains nonlinear diffusion and damping, and linear growth. It is found that turbulence spreading is strongly affected by magnetic shear s, but is hardly altered by the safety factor q itself. There is an optimal range of modest magnetic shear which maximizes turbulence spreading. For high to modest shear values, the spreading is enhanced by the increase of the mode correlation length with decreasing magnetic shear. However, the efficiency of spreading drops for sufficiently low magnetic shear even though the mode correlation length is comparable to that for the case of optimal magnetic shear. The reduction of spreading is attributed to the increase in time required for the requisite nonlinear mode-mode interactions. The effect of increased interaction time dominates that of increased mode correlation length. Our findings of the reduction of spreading and the increase in interaction time at weak magnetic shear are consistent with the well-known benefit of weak or reversed magnetic shear for core confinement enhancement. Weak shear is shown to promote locality, as well as stability.

  14. Unveiling hidden properties of young star clusters: differential reddening, star-formation spread, and binary fraction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonatto, C.; Lima, E. F.; Bica, E.

    2012-04-01

    Context. Usually, important parameters of young, low-mass star clusters are very difficult to obtain by means of photometry, especially when differential reddening and/or binaries occur in large amounts. Aims: We present a semi-analytical approach (ASAmin) that, when applied to the Hess diagram of a young star cluster, is able to retrieve the values of mass, age, star-formation spread, distance modulus, foreground and differential reddening, and binary fraction. Methods: The global optimisation method known as adaptive simulated annealing (ASA) is used to minimise the residuals between the observed and simulated Hess diagrams of a star cluster. The simulations are realistic and take the most relevant parameters of young clusters into account. Important features of the simulations are a normal (Gaussian) differential reddening distribution, a time-decreasing star-formation rate, the unresolved binaries, and the smearing effect produced by photometric uncertainties on Hess diagrams. Free parameters are cluster mass, age, distance modulus, star-formation spread, foreground and differential reddening, and binary fraction. Results: Tests with model clusters built with parameters spanning a broad range of values show that ASAmin retrieves the input values with a high precision for cluster mass, distance modulus, and foreground reddening, but they are somewhat lower for the remaining parameters. Given the statistical nature of the simulations, several runs should be performed to obtain significant convergence patterns. Specifically, we find that the retrieved (absolute minimum) parameters converge to mean values with a low dispersion as the Hess residuals decrease. When applied to actual young clusters, the retrieved parameters follow convergence patterns similar to the models. We show how the stochasticity associated with the early phases may affect the results, especially in low-mass clusters. This effect can be minimised by averaging out several twin clusters in the

  15. Epidemic spreading induced by diversity of agents' mobility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Jie; Chung, Ning Ning; Chew, Lock Yue; Lai, Choy Heng

    2012-08-01

    In this paper, we study the impact of the preference of an individual for public transport on the spread of infectious disease, through a quantity known as the public mobility. Our theoretical and numerical results based on a constructed model reveal that if the average public mobility of the agents is fixed, an increase in the diversity of the agents' public mobility reduces the epidemic threshold, beyond which an enhancement in the rate of infection is observed. Our findings provide an approach to improve the resistance of a society against infectious disease, while preserving the utilization rate of the public transportation system.

  16. Human mobility and time spent at destination: impact on spatial epidemic spreading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poletto, Chiara; Tizzoni, Michele; Colizza, Vittoria

    2013-12-07

    Host mobility plays a fundamental role in the spatial spread of infectious diseases. Previous theoretical works based on the integration of network theory into the metapopulation framework have shown that the heterogeneities that characterize real mobility networks favor the propagation of epidemics. Nevertheless, the studies conducted so far assumed the mobility process to be either Markovian (in which the memory of the origin of each traveler is lost) or non-Markovian with a fixed traveling time scale (in which individuals travel to a destination and come back at a constant rate). Available statistics however show that the time spent by travelers at destination is characterized by wide fluctuations, ranging from a single day up to several months. Such varying length of stay crucially affects the chance and duration of mixing events among hosts and may therefore have a strong impact on the spread of an emerging disease. Here, we present an analytical and a computational study of epidemic processes on a complex subpopulation network where travelers have memory of their origin and spend a heterogeneously distributed time interval at their destination. Through analytical calculations and numerical simulations we show that the heterogeneity of the length of stay alters the expression of the threshold between local outbreak and global invasion, and, moreover, it changes the epidemic behavior of the system in case of a global outbreak. Additionally, our theoretical framework allows us to study the effect of changes in the traveling behavior in response to the infection, by considering a scenario in which sick individuals do not leave their home location. Finally, we compare the results of our non-Markovian framework with those obtained with a classic Markovian approach and find relevant differences between the two, in the estimate of the epidemic invasion potential, as well as of the timing and the pattern of its spatial spread. These results highlight the importance of

  17. A network model for Ebola spreading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rizzo, Alessandro; Pedalino, Biagio; Porfiri, Maurizio

    2016-04-07

    The availability of accurate models for the spreading of infectious diseases has opened a new era in management and containment of epidemics. Models are extensively used to plan for and execute vaccination campaigns, to evaluate the risk of international spreadings and the feasibility of travel bans, and to inform prophylaxis campaigns. Even when no specific therapeutical protocol is available, as for the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD), models of epidemic spreading can provide useful insight to steer interventions in the field and to forecast the trend of the epidemic. Here, we propose a novel mathematical model to describe EVD spreading based on activity driven networks (ADNs). Our approach overcomes the simplifying assumption of homogeneous mixing, which is central to most of the mathematically tractable models of EVD spreading. In our ADN-based model, each individual is not bound to contact every other, and its network of contacts varies in time as a function of an activity potential. Our model contemplates the possibility of non-ideal and time-varying intervention policies, which are critical to accurately describe EVD spreading in afflicted countries. The model is calibrated from field data of the 2014 April-to-December spreading in Liberia. We use the model as a predictive tool, to emulate the dynamics of EVD in Liberia and offer a one-year projection, until December 2015. Our predictions agree with the current vision expressed by professionals in the field, who consider EVD in Liberia at its final stage. The model is also used to perform a what-if analysis to assess the efficacy of timely intervention policies. In particular, we show that an earlier application of the same intervention policy would have greatly reduced the number of EVD cases, the duration of the outbreak, and the infrastructures needed for the implementation of the intervention. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. A Comparison of Flame Spread Characteristics over Solids in Concurrent Flow Using Two Different Pyrolysis Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ya-Ting Tseng

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Two solid pyrolysis models are employed in a concurrent-flow flame spread model to compare the flame structure and spreading characteristics. The first is a zeroth-order surface pyrolysis, and the second is a first-order in-depth pyrolysis. Comparisons are made for samples when the spread rate reaches a steady value and the flame reaches a constant length. The computed results show (1 the mass burning rate distributions at the solid surface are qualitatively different near the flame (pyrolysis base region, (2 the first-order pyrolysis model shows that the propagating flame leaves unburnt solid fuel, and (3 the flame length and spread rate dependence on sample thickness are different for the two cases.

  19. Numerical simulations of fire spread in a Pinus pinaster needles fuel bed

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Menage, D; Chetehouna, K; Mell, W

    2012-01-01

    The main aim of this paper is to extend the cases of WFDS model validation by comparing its predictions to literature data on a ground fire spreading in a Pinus pinaster needles fuel bed. This comparison is based on the experimental results of Mendes-Lopes and co-workers. This study is performed using the same domain as in the experiments (3.0m×1.2m×0.9m) with a mesh of 49,280 cells. We investigate the influence of wind (varied between 0 and 2 m/s) and moisture content (10 and 18%) on the rate of spread. The WFDS rate of spread is determined using a cross-correlation function of ground temperature profiles. The simulated rate of spread, as well as temperature, compared favourably to experimental values and show the WFDS model capacity to predict ground fires in Pinus Pinaster fuel beds.

  20. Numerical simulations of fire spread in a Pinus pinaster needles fuel bed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menage, D.; Chetehouna, K.; Mell, W.

    2012-11-01

    The main aim of this paper is to extend the cases of WFDS model validation by comparing its predictions to literature data on a ground fire spreading in a Pinus pinaster needles fuel bed. This comparison is based on the experimental results of Mendes-Lopes and co-workers. This study is performed using the same domain as in the experiments (3.0m×1.2m×0.9m) with a mesh of 49,280 cells. We investigate the influence of wind (varied between 0 and 2 m/s) and moisture content (10 and 18%) on the rate of spread. The WFDS rate of spread is determined using a cross-correlation function of ground temperature profiles. The simulated rate of spread, as well as temperature, compared favourably to experimental values and show the WFDS model capacity to predict ground fires in Pinus Pinaster fuel beds.

  1. Implications of the spatial dynamics of fire spread for the bistability of savanna and forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schertzer, E; Staver, A C; Levin, S A

    2015-01-01

    The role of fire in expanding the global distribution of savanna is well recognized. Empirical observations and modeling suggest that fire spread has a threshold response to fuel-layer continuity, which sets up a positive feedback that maintains savanna-forest bistability. However, modeling has so far failed to examine fire spread as a spatial process that interacts with vegetation. Here, we use simple, well-supported assumptions about fire spread as an infection process and its effects on trees to ask whether spatial dynamics qualitatively change the potential for savanna-forest bistability. We show that the spatial effects of fire spread are the fundamental reason that bistability is possible: because fire spread is an infection process, it exhibits a threshold response to fuel continuity followed by a rapid increase in fire size. Other ecological processes affecting fire spread may also contribute including temporal variability in demography or fire spread. Finally, including the potential for spatial aggregation increases the potential both for savanna-forest bistability and for savanna and forest to coexist in a landscape mosaic.

  2. Relationships between Participants' International Prostate Symptom Score and BPH Impact Index Changes and Global Ratings of Change in a Trial of Phytotherapy for Men with Lower Urinary Tract Symptoms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barry, Michael J.; Cantor, Alan; Roehrborn, Claus G.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose To relate changes in AUA Symptom Index (AUASI) scores with bother measures and global ratings of change among men with lower urinary tract symptoms enrolled in a trial of saw palmetto. Materials and Methods To be eligible, men were ≥45 years old, had ajpeak uroflow ≥4 ml/sec, and an AUASI score ≥ 8 and ≤ 24. Participants self-administered the AUASI, IPSS quality of life item (IPSS QoL), BPH Impact Index (BII) and two global change questions at baseline and 24, 48, and 72 weeks. Results Among 357 participants, global ratings of “a little better” were associated with mean decreases in AUASI scores from 2.8 to 4.1 points, across three time points. The analogous range for mean decreases in BII scores was 1.0 to 1.7 points, and for the IPSS QoL item 0.5 to 0.8 points. At 72 weeks, for the first global change question, each change measure could discriminate between participants rating themselves at least a little better versus unchanged or worse 70-72% of the time. A multivariable model increased discrimination to 77%. For the second global change question, each change measure correctly discriminated ratings of at least a little better versus unchanged or worse 69-74% of the time, and a multivariable model increased discrimination to 79%. Conclusions Changes in AUASI scores could discriminate between participants rating themselves at least a little better versus unchanged or worse. Our findings support the practice of powering studies to detect group mean differences in AUASI scores of at least 3 points. PMID:23017510

  3. Relationships among participant international prostate symptom score, benign prostatic hyperplasia impact index changes and global ratings of change in a trial of phytotherapy in men with lower urinary tract symptoms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barry, Michael J; Cantor, Alan; Roehrborn, Claus G

    2013-03-01

    We related changes in American Urological Association symptom index scores with bother measures and global ratings of change in men with lower urinary tract symptoms who were enrolled in a saw palmetto trial. To be eligible for study men were 45 years old or older, and had a peak uroflow of 4 ml per second or greater and an American Urological Association symptom index score of 8 to 24. Participants self-administered the American Urological Association symptom index, International Prostate Symptom Score quality of life item, Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia Impact Index and 2 global change questions at baseline, and at 24, 48 and 72 weeks. In 357 participants global ratings of a little better were associated with a mean decrease in American Urological Association symptom index scores from 2.8 to 4.1 points across 3 time points. The analogous range for mean decreases in Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia Impact Index scores was 1.0 to 1.7 points and for the International Prostate Symptom Score quality of life item it was 0.5 to 0.8 points. At 72 weeks for the first global change question each change measure discriminated between participants who rated themselves at least a little better vs unchanged or worse 70% to 72% of the time. A multivariate model increased discrimination to 77%. For the second global change question each change measure correctly discriminated ratings of at least a little better vs unchanged or worse 69% to 74% of the time and a multivariate model increased discrimination to 79%. Changes in American Urological Association symptom index scores could discriminate between participants rating themselves at least a little better vs unchanged or worse. Our findings support the practice of powering studies to detect group mean differences in American Urological Association symptom index scores of at least 3 points. Copyright © 2013 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. SEIR Model of Rumor Spreading in Online Social Network with Varying Total Population Size

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dong Suyalatu; Deng Yan-Bin; Huang Yong-Chang

    2017-01-01

    Based on the infectious disease model with disease latency, this paper proposes a new model for the rumor spreading process in online social network. In this paper what we establish an SEIR rumor spreading model to describe the online social network with varying total number of users and user deactivation rate. We calculate the exact equilibrium points and reproduction number for this model. Furthermore, we perform the rumor spreading process in the online social network with increasing population size based on the original real world Facebook network. The simulation results indicate that the SEIR model of rumor spreading in online social network with changing total number of users can accurately reveal the inherent characteristics of rumor spreading process in online social network . (paper)

  5. SEIR Model of Rumor Spreading in Online Social Network with Varying Total Population Size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Suyalatu; Deng, Yan-Bin; Huang, Yong-Chang

    2017-10-01

    Based on the infectious disease model with disease latency, this paper proposes a new model for the rumor spreading process in online social network. In this paper what we establish an SEIR rumor spreading model to describe the online social network with varying total number of users and user deactivation rate. We calculate the exact equilibrium points and reproduction number for this model. Furthermore, we perform the rumor spreading process in the online social network with increasing population size based on the original real world Facebook network. The simulation results indicate that the SEIR model of rumor spreading in online social network with changing total number of users can accurately reveal the inherent characteristics of rumor spreading process in online social network. Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 11275017 and 11173028

  6. Elevated global cerebral blood flow, oxygen extraction fraction and unchanged metabolic rate of oxygen in young adults with end-stage renal disease: an MRI study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Gang; Wen, Jiqiu; Lu, Hanzhang; Lou, Yaxian; Pan, Zhiying; Liu, Wei; Liu, Hui; Li, Xue; Zhang, Zhe; Chen, Huijuan; Kong, Xiang; Luo, Song; Jiang, Xiaolu; Liu, Ya; Zhang, Zongjun; Zhang, Long Jiang; Lu, Guang Ming

    2016-06-01

    To noninvasively assess global cerebral blood flow (CBF), oxygen extraction fraction (OEF) and cerebral metabolic rate of oxygen (CMRO2) in young adults with end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Thirty-six patients and 38 healthy volunteers were included and took part in MR examinations, blood and neuropsychological tests. CBF and OEF were measured by phase-contrast and T2-relaxation-under-spin-tagging MRI techniques, respectively. CMRO2 was computed from CBF, OEF and hematocrit according to Fick's principle. Correlations were performed between MR measurements, blood biochemistry measurements and neuropsychological test scores. Compared with controls, ESRD patients had elevated CBF (72.9 ± 12.5 vs. 63.8 ± 8.5 ml min(-1) 100 g(-1), P < 0.001), elevated OEF (47.2 ± 10.2 vs. 35.8 ± 5.4 %, P < 0.001), but unaffected CMRO2 (199.5 ± 36.4 vs. 193.8 ± 28.6 μmol O2 min(-1) 100 g(-1), P = 0.879). Hematocrit negatively correlated with CBF (r = -0.640, P < 0.001) and OEF (r = -0.701, P < 0.001), but not with CMRO2. Altered neuropsychological test scores of ESRD patients were associated with OEF and CBF, but not with CMRO2. There were weak relationships between eGFR and hematocrit (r = 0.308, P = 0.068) or CBF (r = 0.318, P = 0.059). Our findings suggested that anaemic young adults with ESRD may afford higher CBF and OEF to maintain a normal CMRO2. Despite this compensatory process, however, cognitive function was still impaired and its severity was correlated with their CBF and OEF abnormality. • Anaemic young adults with ESRD may afford higher CBF and OEF. • Anaemic young adults with ESRD maintain a normal CMRO 2 . • Cognitive function was still impaired in young ESRD adults. • The severity of cognitive dysfunction correlated with CBF and OEF changes.

  7. On the global distribution of hydrothermal vent fields: One decade later

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaulieu, S. E.; Baker, E. T.; German, C. R.

    2012-12-01

    Since the last global compilation one decade ago, the known number of active submarine hydrothermal vent fields has almost doubled. At the end of 2009, a total of 518 active vent fields was catalogued, with about half (245) visually confirmed and others (273) inferred active at the seafloor. About half (52%) of these vent fields are at mid-ocean ridges (MORs), 25% at volcanic arcs, 21% at back-arc spreading centers (BASCs), and 2% at intra-plate volcanoes and other settings. One third are in high seas, and the nations with the most known active vent fields within EEZs are Tonga, USA, Japan, and New Zealand. The increase in known vent fields reflects a number of factors, including increased national and commercial interests in seafloor hydrothermal deposits as mineral resources. Here, we have comprehensively documented the percentage of strike length at MORs and BASCs that has been systematically explored for hydrothermal activity. As of the end of 2009, almost 30% of the ~60,000 km of MORs had been surveyed at least with spaced vertical profiles to detect hydrothermal plumes. A majority of the vents discovered at MORs in the past decade occurred at segments with vs. weighted-average full spreading rate (u_s), we predicted 676 vent fields remaining to be discovered at MORs. Even accounting for the lower F_s at slower spreading rates, almost half of the vents that are predicted remaining to be discovered at MORs are at ultra-slow to slow spreading rates (explored tend to be at high latitudes, such as the ultra-slow to slow spreading Arctic MORs (e.g., Kolbeinsey and Mohns Ridges), the ultra-slow American-Antarctic Ridge, and the intermediate spreading Pacific-Antarctic Ridge. Although a greater percentage of the ~11,000 km of BASCs has been surveyed for hydrothermal activity, the discoveries at BASCs in the past decade were mainly at segments with intermediate to fast spreading rates. Using the same equation for F_s vs. u_s, we predicted 71 vent fields remaining to

  8. Spreading paths in partially observed social networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onnela, Jukka-Pekka; Christakis, Nicholas A.

    2012-03-01

    Understanding how and how far information, behaviors, or pathogens spread in social networks is an important problem, having implications for both predicting the size of epidemics, as well as for planning effective interventions. There are, however, two main challenges for inferring spreading paths in real-world networks. One is the practical difficulty of observing a dynamic process on a network, and the other is the typical constraint of only partially observing a network. Using static, structurally realistic social networks as platforms for simulations, we juxtapose three distinct paths: (1) the stochastic path taken by a simulated spreading process from source to target; (2) the topologically shortest path in the fully observed network, and hence the single most likely stochastic path, between the two nodes; and (3) the topologically shortest path in a partially observed network. In a sampled network, how closely does the partially observed shortest path (3) emulate the unobserved spreading path (1)? Although partial observation inflates the length of the shortest path, the stochastic nature of the spreading process also frequently derails the dynamic path from the shortest path. We find that the partially observed shortest path does not necessarily give an inflated estimate of the length of the process path; in fact, partial observation may, counterintuitively, make the path seem shorter than it actually is.

  9. Spreading paths in partially observed social networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onnela, Jukka-Pekka; Christakis, Nicholas A

    2012-03-01

    Understanding how and how far information, behaviors, or pathogens spread in social networks is an important problem, having implications for both predicting the size of epidemics, as well as for planning effective interventions. There are, however, two main challenges for inferring spreading paths in real-world networks. One is the practical difficulty of observing a dynamic process on a network, and the other is the typical constraint of only partially observing a network. Using static, structurally realistic social networks as platforms for simulations, we juxtapose three distinct paths: (1) the stochastic path taken by a simulated spreading process from source to target; (2) the topologically shortest path in the fully observed network, and hence the single most likely stochastic path, between the two nodes; and (3) the topologically shortest path in a partially observed network. In a sampled network, how closely does the partially observed shortest path (3) emulate the unobserved spreading path (1)? Although partial observation inflates the length of the shortest path, the stochastic nature of the spreading process also frequently derails the dynamic path from the shortest path. We find that the partially observed shortest path does not necessarily give an inflated estimate of the length of the process path; in fact, partial observation may, counterintuitively, make the path seem shorter than it actually is.

  10. Post-Tanner spreading of nematic droplets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mechkov, S; Oshanin, G; Cazabat, A M

    2009-01-01

    The quasistationary spreading of a circular liquid drop on a solid substrate typically obeys the so-called Tanner law, with the instantaneous base radius R(t) growing with time as R∼t 1/10 -an effect of the dominant role of capillary forces for a small-sized droplet. However, for droplets of nematic liquid crystals, a faster spreading law sets in at long times, so that R∼t α with α significantly larger than the Tanner exponent 1/10. In the framework of the thin film model (or lubrication approximation), we describe this 'acceleration' as a transition to a qualitatively different spreading regime driven by a strong substrate-liquid interaction specific to nematics (antagonistic anchoring at the interfaces). The numerical solution of the thin film equation agrees well with the available experimental data for nematics, even though the non-Newtonian rheology has yet to be taken into account. Thus we complement the theory of spreading with a post-Tanner stage, noting that the spreading process can be expected to cross over from the usual capillarity-dominated stage to a regime where the whole reservoir becomes a diffusive film in the sense of Derjaguin.

  11. Emergence and nosocomial spread of carbapenem-resistant OXA-232-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae in Brunei Darussalam

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Abdul Momin, Muhd Haziq Fikry; Liakopoulos, Apostolos; Phee, Lynette M.; Wareham, David W.

    2017-01-01

    Objectives Carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) are identified as a major global health concern. The success of CRE is facilitated by the emergence, acquisition and spread of successful clones carrying plasmid-encoded resistance genes. In this study, an outbreak of carbapenem-resistant

  12. Asymptotic behaviour for a system describing epidemics with migration and spatial spread of infection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirane, M.; Kouachi, S.

    1991-08-01

    A parabolic system with linear interactions is considered with specific applications to the spread of infectious diseases. Using a Payne-type functional we prove the global existence of a unique solution and analyze its large time behaviour. (author). 14 refs

  13. Diffusive spreading in nature, technology and society

    CERN Document Server

    Caro, Jürgen; Kärger, Jörg; Vogl, Gero

    2018-01-01

    This book deals with randomly moving objects and their spreading. The objects considered are particles like atoms and molecules, just as living beings like humans, animals, plants, bacteria and even abstract entities like ideas, rumors, information, innovations and linguistic features. The book explores and communicates the laws behind these movements and reports about astonishing similarities and very specific features typical of the given object under considerations. Leading scientists in disciplines as different as archeology, epidemics, linguistics and sociology, in contact with their colleagues from engineering, natural sciences and mathematics, introduce into the phenomena of spreading as relevant for their fields. An introductory chapter on “Spreading Fundamentals” provides a common basis for all these considerations, with a minimum of mathematics, selected and presented for enjoying rather than frustrating the reader.

  14. Globalization and world trade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter J. Ince; Joseph Buongiorno

    2007-01-01

    This chapter discusses economic globalization and world trade in relation to forest sector modeling for the US/North American region. It discusses drivers of economic globalization and related structural changes in US forest product markets, including currency exchange rates and differences in manufacturing costs that have contributed to the displacement of global...

  15. Global-scale attribution of anthropogenic and natural dust sources and their emission rates based on MODIS Deep Blue aerosol products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ginoux, Paul; Prospero, Joseph M.; Gill, Thomas E.; Hsu, N. Christina; Zhao, Ming

    2012-09-01

    Our understanding of the global dust cycle is limited by a dearth of information about dust sources, especially small-scale features which could account for a large fraction of global emissions. Here we present a global-scale high-resolution (0.1°) mapping of sources based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Deep Blue estimates of dust optical depth in conjunction with other data sets including land use. We ascribe dust sources to natural and anthropogenic (primarily agricultural) origins, calculate their respective contributions to emissions, and extensively compare these products against literature. Natural dust sources globally account for 75% of emissions; anthropogenic sources account for 25%. North Africa accounts for 55% of global dust emissions with only 8% being anthropogenic, mostly from the Sahel. Elsewhere, anthropogenic dust emissions can be much higher (75% in Australia). Hydrologic dust sources (e.g., ephemeral water bodies) account for 31% worldwide; 15% of them are natural while 85% are anthropogenic. Globally, 20% of emissions are from vegetated surfaces, primarily desert shrublands and agricultural lands. Since anthropogenic dust sources are associated with land use and ephemeral water bodies, both in turn linked to the hydrological cycle, their emissions are affected by climate variability. Such changes in dust emissions can impact climate, air quality, and human health. Improved dust emission estimates will require a better mapping of threshold wind velocities, vegetation dynamics, and surface conditions (soil moisture and land use) especially in the sensitive regions identified here, as well as improved ability to address small-scale convective processes producing dust via cold pool (haboob) events frequent in monsoon regimes.

  16. The spread of gossip in American schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lind, P. G.; da Silva, L. R.; Andrade, J. S., Jr.; Herrmann, H. J.

    2007-06-01

    Gossip is defined as a rumor which specifically targets one individual and essentially only propagates within its friendship connections. How fast and how far a gossip can spread is for the first time assessed quantitatively in this study. For that purpose we introduce the "spread factor" and study it on empirical networks of school friendships as well as on various models for social connections. We discover that there exists an ideal number of friendship connections an individual should have to minimize the danger of gossip propagation.

  17. Can rewiring strategy control the epidemic spreading?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Chao; Yin, Qiuju; Liu, Wenyang; Yan, Zhijun; Shi, Tianyu

    2015-11-01

    Relation existed in the social contact network can affect individuals' behaviors greatly. Considering the diversity of relation intimacy among network nodes, an epidemic propagation model is proposed by incorporating the link-breaking threshold, which is normally neglected in the rewiring strategy. The impact of rewiring strategy on the epidemic spreading in the weighted adaptive network is explored. The results show that the rewiring strategy cannot always control the epidemic prevalence, especially when the link-breaking threshold is low. Meanwhile, as well as strong links, weak links also play a significant role on epidemic spreading.

  18. Forced Spreading of Aqueous Solutions on Zwitterionic Sulfobetaine Surfaces for Rapid Evaporation and Solute Separation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Cyuan-Jhang; Singh, Vickramjeet; Sheng, Yu-Jane; Tsao, Heng-Kwong

    2017-08-01

    Solute separation of aqueous mixtures is mainly dominated by water vaporization. The evaporation rate of an aqueous drop grows with increasing the liquid-gas interfacial area. The spontaneous spreading behavior of a water droplet on a total wetting surface provides huge liquid-gas interfacial area per unit volume; however, it is halted by the self-pinning phenomenon upon addition of nonvolatile solutes. In this work, it is shown that the solute-induced self-pinning can be overcome by gravity, leading to anisotropic spreading much faster than isotropic spreading. The evaporation rate of anisotropic spreading on a zwitterionic sulfobetaine surface is 25 times larger as that on a poly(methyl methacrylate) surface. Dramatic enhancement of evaporation is demonstrated by simultaneous formation of fog atop liquid film. During anisotropic spreading, the solutes are quickly precipitated out within 30 s, showing the rapid solute-water separation. After repeated spreading process for the dye-containing solution, the mean concentration of the collection is doubled, revealing the concentration efficiency as high as 100%. Gravity-enhanced spreading on total wetting surfaces at room temperature is easy to scale-up with less energy consumption, and thus it has great potentials for the applications of solute separation and concentration.

  19. Health, globalization and developing countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cilingiroglu, Nesrin

    2005-02-01

    In health care today, scientific and technological frontiers are expanding at unprecedented rates, even as economic and financial pressures shrink profit margins, intensify competition, and constrain the funds available for investment. Therefore, the world today has more economic, and social opportunities for people than 10 or 100 years since globalization has created a new ground somewhat characterized by rapid economic transformation, deregulation of national markets by new trade regimes, amazing transport, electronic communication possibilities and high turnover of foreign investment and capital flow as well as skilled labor. These trends can easily mask great inequalities in developing countries such as importation and spreading of infectious and non-communicable diseases; miniaturization of movement of medical technology; health sector trades management driven by economics without consideration to the social and health aspects and its effects, increasing health inequalities and their economic and social burden creation; multinational companies' cheap labor employment promotion in widening income differentials; and others. As a matter of fact, all these factors are major determinants of ill health. Health authorities of developing countries have to strengthen their regulatory framework in order to ensure that national health systems derive maximum benefit in terms of equity, quality and efficiency, while reducing potential social cost to a minimum generated risky side of globalization.

  20. The spread of true and false news online.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vosoughi, Soroush; Roy, Deb; Aral, Sinan

    2018-03-09

    We investigated the differential diffusion of all of the verified true and false news stories distributed on Twitter from 2006 to 2017. The data comprise ~126,000 stories tweeted by ~3 million people more than 4.5 million times. We classified news as true or false using information from six independent fact-checking organizations that exhibited 95 to 98% agreement on the classifications. Falsehood diffused significantly farther, faster, deeper, and more broadly than the truth in all categories of information, and the effects were more pronounced for false political news than for false news about terrorism, natural disasters, science, urban legends, or financial information. We found that false news was more novel than true news, which suggests that people were more likely to share novel information. Whereas false stories inspired fear, disgust, and surprise in replies, true stories inspired anticipation, sadness, joy, and trust. Contrary to conventional wisdom, robots accelerated the spread of true and false news at the same rate, implying that false news spreads more than the truth because humans, not robots, are more likely to spread it. Copyright © 2018 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.

  1. Epidemic spreading in localized environments with recurrent mobility patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granell, Clara; Mucha, Peter J.

    2018-05-01

    The spreading of epidemics is very much determined by the structure of the contact network, which may be impacted by the mobility dynamics of the individuals themselves. In confined scenarios where a small, closed population spends most of its time in localized environments and has easily identifiable mobility patterns—such as workplaces, university campuses, or schools—it is of critical importance to identify the factors controlling the rate of disease spread. Here, we present a discrete-time, metapopulation-based model to describe the transmission of susceptible-infected-susceptible-like diseases that take place in confined scenarios where the mobilities of the individuals are not random but, rather, follow clear recurrent travel patterns. This model allows analytical determination of the onset of epidemics, as well as the ability to discern which contact structures are most suited to prevent the infection to spread. It thereby determines whether common prevention mechanisms, as isolation, are worth implementing in such a scenario and their expected impact.

  2. Warning signals for eruptive events in spreading fires.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Jerome M; Whitesides, George M

    2015-02-24

    Spreading fires are noisy (and potentially chaotic) systems in which transitions in dynamics are notoriously difficult to predict. As flames move through spatially heterogeneous environments, sudden shifts in temperature, wind, or topography can generate combustion instabilities, or trigger self-stabilizing feedback loops, that dramatically amplify the intensities and rates with which fires propagate. Such transitions are rarely captured by predictive models of fire behavior and, thus, complicate efforts in fire suppression. This paper describes a simple, remarkably instructive physical model for examining the eruption of small flames into intense, rapidly moving flames stabilized by feedback between wind and fire (i.e., "wind-fire coupling"-a mechanism of feedback particularly relevant to forest fires), and it presents evidence that characteristic patterns in the dynamics of spreading flames indicate when such transitions are likely to occur. In this model system, flames propagate along strips of nitrocellulose with one of two possible modes of propagation: a slow, structured mode, and a fast, unstructured mode sustained by wind-fire coupling. Experimental examination of patterns in dynamics that emerge near bifurcation points suggests that symptoms of critical slowing down (i.e., the slowed recovery of the system from perturbations as it approaches tipping points) warn of impending transitions to the unstructured mode. Findings suggest that slowing responses of spreading flames to sudden changes in environment (e.g., wind, terrain, temperature) may anticipate the onset of intense, feedback-stabilized modes of propagation (e.g., "blowup fires" in forests).

  3. Measuring landscape-scale spread and persistence of an invaded submerged plant community from airborne remote sensing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Maria J; Khanna, Shruti; Hestir, Erin L; Greenberg, Jonathan A; Ustin, Susan L

    2016-09-01

    Processes of spread and patterns of persistence of invasive species affect species and communities in the new environment. Predicting future rates of spread is of great interest for timely management decisions, but this depends on models that rely on understanding the processes of invasion and historic observations of spread and persistence. Unfortunately, the rates of spread and patterns of persistence are difficult to model or directly observe, especially when multiple rates of spread and diverse persistence patterns may be co-occurring over the geographic distribution of the invaded ecosystem. Remote sensing systematically acquires data over large areas at fine spatial and spectral resolutions over multiple time periods that can be used to quantify spread processes and persistence patterns. We used airborne imaging spectroscopy data acquired once a year for 5 years from 2004 to 2008 to map an invaded submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) community across 2220 km 2 of waterways in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, California, USA, and measured its spread rate and its persistence. Submerged aquatic vegetation covered 13-23 km 2 of the waterways (6-11%) every year. Yearly new growth accounted for 40-60% of the SAV area, ~50% of which survived to following year. Spread rates were overall negative and persistence decreased with time. From this dataset, we were able to identify both radial and saltatorial spread of the invaded SAV in the entire extent of the Delta over time. With both decreasing spread rate and persistence, it is possible that over time the invasion of this SAV community could decrease its ecological impact. A landscape-scale approach allows measurements of all invasion fronts and the spatial anisotropies associated with spread processes and persistence patterns, without spatial interpolation, at locations both proximate and distant to the focus of invasion at multiple points in time. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

  4. Density profile evolution and nonequilibrium effects in partial and full spreading measurements of surface diffusion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nikunen, P.; Vattulainen, Ilpo Tapio; Ala-Nissila, T.

    2001-01-01

    in D-C(theta) depend on the initial density gradient and the initial state from which the spreading starts. To this end, we carry out extensive Monte Carlo simulations for a lattice-gas model of the O/W(110) system. Studies of submonolayer spreading from an initially ordered p(2x1) phase at theta = 1....../2 reveal that the spreading and diffusion rates in directions parallel and perpendicular to rows of oxygen atoms are significantly different within the ordered phase. Aside from this effect, we find that the degree of ordering in the initial phase has a relatively small impact on the overall behavior of D...

  5. A STUDY ON DETERMINING THE REFERENCE SPREADING SEQUENCES FOR A DS/CDMACOMMUNICATION SYSTEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cebrail ÇİFTLİKLİ

    2002-02-01

    Full Text Available In a direct sequence/code division multiple access (DS/CDMA system, the role of the spreading sequences (codes is crucial since the multiple access interference (MAI is the main performance limitation. In this study, we propose an accurate criterion which enables the determination of the reference spreading codes which yield lower bit error rates (BER's in a given code set for a DS/CDMA system using despreading sequences weighted by stepping chip waveforms. The numerical results show that the spreading codes determined by the proposed criterion are the most suitable codes for using as references.

  6. Recreational sea fishing in Europe in a global context-Participation rates, fishing effort, expenditure, and implications for monitoring and assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hyder, Kieran; Weltersbach, Marc Simon; Armstrong, Mike; Ferter, Keno; Townhill, Bryony; Ahvonen, Anssi; Arlinghaus, Robert; Baikov, Andrei; Bellanger, Manuel; Birzaks, Janis; Borch, Trude; Cambie, Giulia; Graaf, De Martin; Diogo, Hugo M.C.; Dziemian, Łukasz; Gordoa, Ana; Grzebielec, Ryszard; Hartill, Bruce; Kagervall, Anders; Kapiris, Kostas; Karlsson, Martin; Kleiven, Alf Ring; Lejk, Adam M.; Levrel, Harold; Lovell, Sabrina; Lyle, Jeremy; Moilanen, Pentti; Monkman, Graham; Morales-Nin, Beatriz; Mugerza, Estanis; Martinez, Roi; O'Reilly, Paul; Olesen, Hans Jakob; Papadopoulos, Anastasios; Pita, Pablo; Radford, Zachary; Radtke, Krzysztof; Roche, William; Rocklin, Delphine; Ruiz, Jon; Scougal, Callum; Silvestri, Roberto; Skov, Christian; Steinback, Scott; Sundelöf, Andreas; Svagzdys, Arvydas; Turnbull, David; Hammen, Van Der Tessa; Voorhees, Van David; Winsen, Van Frankwin; Verleye, Thomas; Veiga, Pedro; Vølstad, Jon-Helge; Zarauz, Lucia; Zolubas, Tomas; Strehlow, Harry V.

    2018-01-01

    Marine recreational fishing (MRF) is a high-participation activity with large economic value and social benefits globally, and it impacts on some fish stocks. Although reporting MRF catches is a European Union legislative requirement, estimates are only available for some countries. Here, data on

  7. Recreational sea fishing in Europe in a global context—Participation rates, fishing effort, expenditure, and implications for monitoring and assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hyder, Kieran; Weltersbach, Marc Simon; Armstrong, Mike

    2018-01-01

    Marine recreational fishing (MRF) is a high‐participation activity with large economic value and social benefits globally, and it impacts on some fish stocks. Although reporting MRF catches is a European Union legislative requirement, estimates are only available for some countries. Here, data on...

  8. A Novel Dynamic Model Describing the Spread of the MERS-CoV and the Expression of Dipeptidyl Peptidase 4

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Siming Tang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS coronavirus, a newly identified pathogen, causes severe pneumonia in humans. MERS is caused by a coronavirus known as MERS-CoV, which attacks the respiratory system. The recently defined receptor for MERS-CoV, dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP4, is generally expressed in endothelial and epithelial cells and has been shown to be present on cultured human nonciliated bronchiolar epithelium cells. In this paper, a class of novel four-dimensional dynamic model describing the infection of MERS-CoV is given, and then global stability of the equilibria of the model is discussed. Our results show that the spread of MERS-CoV can also be controlled by decreasing the expression rate of DPP4.

  9. Fire spread simulation of a full scale cable tunnel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huhtanen, R.

    1999-11-01

    A fire simulation of a full scale tunnel was performed by using the commercial code EFFLUENT as the simulation platform. Estimation was made for fire spread on the stacked cable trays, possibility of fire spread to the cable trays on the opposite wall of the tunnel, detection time of smoke detectors in the smouldering phase and response of sprinkler heads in the flaming phase. According to the simulation, the rise of temperature in the smouldering phase is minimal, only of the order 1 deg C. The estimates of optical density of smoke show that normal smoke detectors should give an alarm within 2-4 minutes from the beginning of the smouldering phase, depending on the distance to the detector (in this case it was assumed that the thermal source connected to the smoke source was 50 W). The flow conditions at smoke detectors may be challenging, because the velocity magnitude is rather low at this phase. At 4 minutes the maximum velocity at the detectors is 0.12 m/s. During the flaming phase (beginning from 11 minutes) fire spreads on the stacked cable trays in an expected way, although the ignition criterion seems to perform poorly when ignition of new objects is considered. The Upper cable trays are forced to ignite by boundary condition definitions according to the experience found from ti full scale experiment and an earlier simulation. After 30 minutes the hot layer in the room becomes so hot that it speeds up the fire spread and the rate of heat release of burning objects. Further, the hot layer ignites the cable trays on the opposite wall of the tunnel after 45 minutes. It is estimated that the sprinkler heads would be activated at 20-22 minutes near the fire source and at 24-28 minutes little further from the fire source when fast sprinkler heads are used. The slow heads are activated between 26-32 minutes. (orig.)

  10. Spreading a medication administration intervention organizationwide in six hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kliger, Julie; Singer, Sara; Hoffman, Frank; O'Neil, Edward

    2012-02-01

    Six hospitals from the San Francisco Bay Area participated in a 12-month quality improvement project conducted by the Integrated Nurse Leadership Program (INLP). A quality improvement intervention that focused on improving medication administration accuracy was spread from two pilot units to all inpatient units in the hospitals. INLP developed a 12-month curriculum, presented in a combination of off-site training sessions and hospital-based training and consultant-led meetings, to teach clinicians the key skills needed to drive organizationwide change. Each hospital established a nurse-led project team, as well as unit teams to address six safety processes designed to improve medication administration accuracy: compare medication to the medication administration record; keep medication labeled throughout; check two patient identifications; explain drug to patient (if applicable); chart immediately after administration; and protect process from distractions and interruptions. From baseline until one year after project completion, the six hospitals improved their medication accuracy rates, on average, from 83.4% to 98.0% in the spread units. The spread units also improved safety processes overall from 83.1% to 97.2%. During the same time, the initial pilot units also continued to improve accuracy from 94.0% to 96.8% and safety processes overall from 95.3% to 97.2%. With thoughtful planning, engaging those doing the work early and focusing on the "human side of change" along with technical knowledge of improvement methodologies, organizations can spread initiatives enterprisewide. This program required significant training of frontline workers in problem-solving skills, leading change, team management, data tracking, and communication.

  11. Experiments on non-isothermal spreading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ehrhard, P.

    1992-09-01

    Experiments are performed on axisymmetric spreading of viscous drops on glass plates. Two liquids are investigated: silicone oil (M-100) spreads to 'infinity' and paraffin oil spreads to a finite-radius steady state. The experiments with silicone oil partly recover the behaviour of previous workers data; those experiments with paraffin oil provide new data. It is found that gravitational forces dominate at long enough times while at shorter times capillary forces dominate. When the plate is heated or cooled with respect to the ambient gas, thermocapillary forces generate flows that alter the spreading dynamics. Heating (cooling) the plate is found to retard (augment) the streading. Moreover, in case of partial wetting, the finally-approached drop radius is smaller (larger) for a heated (cooled) plate. These data are all new. All these observations are in excellent quantitative agreement with the related model predictions of Ehrhard and Davis (1991). A breakdown of the axisymmetric character of the flow is observed only for very long times and/or very thin liquid layers. (orig.) [de

  12. Social Distancing Strategies against Disease Spreading

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valdez, L. D.; Buono, C.; Macri, P. A.; Braunstein, L. A.

    2013-12-01

    The recurrent infectious diseases and their increasing impact on the society has promoted the study of strategies to slow down the epidemic spreading. In this review we outline the applications of percolation theory to describe strategies against epidemic spreading on complex networks. We give a general outlook of the relation between link percolation and the susceptible-infected-recovered model, and introduce the node void percolation process to describe the dilution of the network composed by healthy individual, i.e., the network that sustain the functionality of a society. Then, we survey two strategies: the quenched disorder strategy where an heterogeneous distribution of contact intensities is induced in society, and the intermittent social distancing strategy where health individuals are persuaded to avoid contact with their neighbors for intermittent periods of time. Using percolation tools, we show that both strategies may halt the epidemic spreading. Finally, we discuss the role of the transmissibility, i.e., the effective probability to transmit a disease, on the performance of the strategies to slow down the epidemic spreading.

  13. Spread of Rare Fungus from Vancouver Island

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2006-12-20

    Cryptococcus gattii, a rare fungus normally found in the tropics, has infected people and animals on Vancouver Island, Canada. Dr. David Warnock, Director, Division of Foodborne, Bacterial, and Mycotic Diseases, CDC, discusses public health concerns about further spread of this organism.  Created: 12/20/2006 by Emerging Infectious Diseases.   Date Released: 12/29/2006.

  14. DataSpread: Unifying Databases and Spreadsheets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bendre, Mangesh; Sun, Bofan; Zhang, Ding; Zhou, Xinyan; Chang, Kevin ChenChuan; Parameswaran, Aditya

    2015-08-01

    Spreadsheet software is often the tool of choice for ad-hoc tabular data management, processing, and visualization, especially on tiny data sets. On the other hand, relational database systems offer significant power, expressivity, and efficiency over spreadsheet software for data management, while lacking in the ease of use and ad-hoc analysis capabilities. We demonstrate DataSpread, a data exploration tool that holistically unifies databases and spreadsheets. It continues to offer a Microsoft Excel-based spreadsheet front-end, while in parallel managing all the data in a back-end database, specifically, PostgreSQL. DataSpread retains all the advantages of spreadsheets, including ease of use, ad-hoc analysis and visualization capabilities, and a schema-free nature, while also adding the advantages of traditional relational databases, such as scalability and the ability to use arbitrary SQL to import, filter, or join external or internal tables and have the results appear in the spreadsheet. DataSpread needs to reason about and reconcile differences in the notions of schema, addressing of cells and tuples, and the current "pane" (which exists in spreadsheets but not in traditional databases), and support data modifications at both the front-end and the back-end. Our demonstration will center on our first and early prototype of the DataSpread, and will give the attendees a sense for the enormous data exploration capabilities offered by unifying spreadsheets and databases.

  15. Modelling of fire spread in car parks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Noordijk, L.M.; Lemaire, A.D.

    2005-01-01

    Currently, design codes assume that in a car park fire at most 3-4 vehicles are on fire at the same time. Recent incidents in car parks have drawn international attention to such assumptions and have raised questions as to the fire spreading mechanism and the resulting fire load on the structure.

  16. Spread of Rare Fungus from Vancouver Island

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    Cryptococcus gattii, a rare fungus normally found in the tropics, has infected people and animals on Vancouver Island, Canada. Dr. David Warnock, Director, Division of Foodborne, Bacterial, and Mycotic Diseases, CDC, discusses public health concerns about further spread of this organism

  17. Energy spread in ion beam analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szilagyi, E.

    2000-01-01

    In ion beam analysis (IBA) the depth profiles are extracted from the experimentally determined energy profiles. The spectra, however, are subject to finite energy resolution of both extrinsic and intrinsic origin. Calculation of those effects such as instrumental beam, geometry and detection-related energy and angular spreads as well as energy straggling, multiple scattering and Doppler effects in the sample itself is not trivial, especially since it involves treatment of non-independent random processes. A proper account for energy spread is vital in IBA not only for correct extraction of elemental and isotopic depth profiles from the measured spectra, but already prior to data acquisition, in optimising experimental conditions to reach the required depth resolution at a certain depth. After a short review of the literature on the different energy spread contributions experimental examples are given from resonance, RBS, elastic BS and ERDA practice in which an account for energy spread contributions is essential. Some further examples illustrate extraction of structural information (roughness, pore size, etc.) from elaborated depth resolution calculation for such layer structures

  18. Energy spread in ion beam analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Szilagyi, E. E-mail: szilagyi@rmki.kkfki.hu

    2000-03-01

    In ion beam analysis (IBA) the depth profiles are extracted from the experimentally determined energy profiles. The spectra, however, are subject to finite energy resolution of both extrinsic and intrinsic origin. Calculation of those effects such as instrumental beam, geometry and detection-related energy and angular spreads as well as energy straggling, multiple scattering and Doppler effects in the sample itself is not trivial, especially since it involves treatment of non-independent random processes. A proper account for energy spread is vital in IBA not only for correct extraction of elemental and isotopic depth profiles from the measured spectra, but already prior to data acquisition, in optimising experimental conditions to reach the required depth resolution at a certain depth. After a short review of the literature on the different energy spread contributions experimental examples are given from resonance, RBS, elastic BS and ERDA practice in which an account for energy spread contributions is essential. Some further examples illustrate extraction of structural information (roughness, pore size, etc.) from elaborated depth resolution calculation for such layer structures.

  19. A model for multiseasonal spread of verticillium wilt of lettuce.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, B M; Subbarao, K V

    2014-09-01

    Verticillium wilt, caused by Verticillium dahliae, is a destructive disease in lettuce, and the pathogen is seedborne. Even though maximum seed infestation rates of lettuce seed lots, it is necessary to establish acceptable contamination thresholds to prevent introduction and establishment of the pathogen in lettuce production fields. However, introduction of inoculum into lettuce fields for experimental purposes to determine its long term effects is undesirable. Therefore, we constructed a simulation model to study the spread of Verticillium wilt following pathogen introduction from seed. The model consists of four components: the first for simulating infection of host plants, the second for simulating reproduction of microsclerotia on diseased plants, the third for simulating the survival of microsclerotia, and the fourth for simulating the dispersal of microsclerotia. The simulation results demonstrated that the inoculum density-disease incidence curve parameters and the dispersal gradients affect disease spread in the field. Although a steep dispersal gradient facilitated the establishment of the disease in a new field with a low inoculum density, a long-tail gradient allowed microsclerotia to be dispersed over greater distances, promoting the disease spread in fields with high inoculum density. The simulation results also revealed the importance of avoiding successive lettuce crops in the same field, reducing survival rate of microsclerotia between crops, and the need for breeding resistance against V. dahliae in lettuce cultivars to lower the number of microsclerotia formed on each diseased plant. The simulation results, however, suggested that, even with a low seed infestation rate, the pathogen would eventually become established if susceptible lettuce cultivars were grown consecutively in the same field for many years. A threshold for seed infestation can be established only when two of the three drivers of the disease-(i) low microsclerotia production per

  20. Why Do You Spread This Message? Understanding Users Sentiment in Social Media Campaigns

    OpenAIRE

    Mahmud, Jalal; Gao, Huiji

    2014-01-01

    Twitter has been increasingly used for spreading messages about campaigns. Such campaigns try to gain followers through their Twitter accounts, influence the followers and spread messages through them. In this paper, we explore the relationship between followers sentiment towards the campaign topic and their rate of retweeting of messages generated by the campaign. Our analysis with followers of multiple social-media campaigns found statistical significant correlations between such sentiment ...