WorldWideScience

Sample records for global spreading rates

  1. The Impact of Indonesia Sovereign Credit Rating Upgrades and Investment Grade Status on the Sovereign Spread Changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dwi Anggi Novianti

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Getting sovereign credit rating upgrades and achieving investment grade status are main goals for countries in order to gain lower yield spread and cost of borrowing. By using ordinary least square method, this research is aimed to analyze the impact of Indonesia sovereign credit rating up-grade and investment grade status on sovereign spread changes. The result shows that the sovereign credit rating upgrades within speculative grade category and investment grade status for Indonesia do not significantly impact sovereign spread reduction. On the other hand, the global condition, especially global risk appetite, has significant impact to Indonesia sovereign yield spread. The research also indicates that Indonesia macroeconomic fundamentals do not significantly explain the movement of sovereign yield spread. Keywords: Yield spread, sovereign credit rating, investment grade, Indonesia

  2. Predicting Agency Rating Migrations with Spread Implied Ratings

    OpenAIRE

    Jianming Kou; Dr Simone Varotto

    2005-01-01

    Investors traditionally rely on credit ratings to price debt instruments. However, rating agencies are known to be prudent in their approach to rating revisions, which results in delayed ratings adjustments to mutating credit conditions. For a large set of eurobonds we derive credit spread implied ratings and compare them with the ratings issued by rating agencies. Our results indicate that spread implied ratings often anticipate future movement of agency ratings and hence could help track cr...

  3. Global stability of a two-mediums rumor spreading model with media coverage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huo, Liang'an; Wang, Li; Song, Guoxiang

    2017-09-01

    Rumor spreading is a typical form of social communication and plays a significant role in social life, and media coverage has a great influence on the spread of rumor. In this paper, we present a new model with two media coverage to investigate the impact of the different mediums on rumor spreading. Then, we calculate the equilibria of the model and construct the reproduction number ℜ0. And we prove the global asymptotic stability of equilibria by using Lyapunov functions. Finally, we can conclude that the transition rate of the ignorants between two mediums has a direct effect on the scale of spreaders, and different media coverage has significant effects on the dynamics behaviors of rumor spreading.

  4. Age, spreading rates, and spreading asymmetry of the world's ocean crust

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The authors present four companion digital models of the age, age uncertainty, spreading rates and spreading asymmetries of the world's ocean basins as geographic...

  5. Credit ratings and bond spreads of the GIIPS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Vries, Tim; de Haan, Jakob

    2016-01-01

    We examine the relationship between credit ratings and bond yield spreads of peripheral countries in the euro area (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain) for the period 1995-2014. Since 2012, bond spreads of those countries have come down very fast, whereas credit ratings have hardly changed.

  6. Evolution of spreading rate and H2 production by serpentinization at mid-ocean ridges from 200 Ma to Present

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreani, M.; García del Real, P.; Daniel, I.; Wright, N.; Coltice, N.

    2017-12-01

    Mid-oceanic ridge (MOR) spreading rate spatially varies today from 20 to 200 mm/yr and geological records attest of important temporal variations, at least during the past 200 My. The spreading rate has a direct impact on the mechanisms accomodating extension (magmatic vs tectonic), hence on the nature of the rocks forming the oceanic lithosphere. The latter is composed of variable amount of magmatic and mantle rocks, that dominate at fast and (ultra-) slow spreading ridges, respectively. Serpentinization of mantle rocks contributes to global fluxes and notably to those of hydrogen and carbon by providing a pathways for dihydrogen (H2) production, carbone storage by mineralization, and carbon reduction to CH4 and possibly complex organic compounds. Quantification of the global chemical impact of serpentinization through geological time requires a coupling of geochemical parameters with plate-tectonic reconstructions. Here we quantify serpentinization extent and concurrent H2 production at MOR from the Jurassic (200 Ma) to present day (0 Ma). We coupled mean values of relevant petro-chemical parameters such as the proportion of mantle rocks, initial iron in olivine, iron redox state in serpentinites, % of serpentinization to high-resolution models of plate motion within the GPlates infrastructure to estimate the lengths in 1 Myr intervals for the global MOR plate boundary (spreading and transform components), and spreading ridges as a function of their rate. The model sensitivity to selected parameters has been tested. The results show that fragmentation of Pangea resulted in elevated H2 rates (>1012 to 1013 mol/yr) starting at 160 Ma compared to Late Mesozoic (<160 Ma) rates (<1011-1012 mol/yr). From 160 Ma to present, the coupled opening of the Atlantic and Indian oceans as well as the variation in spreading rates maintained H2 generation in the 1012 mol/yr level, but with significant excursions mainly related to the length of ultra-slow spreading segments. For

  7. Global warming and spread of infectious diseases; Globale Erwaermung und Ausbreitung von Infektionskrankheiten

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ebert, B.; Fleischer, B. [Bernhard-Nocht-Institut fuer Tropenmedizin (BNI), Hamburg (Germany)

    2005-01-15

    At the end of the twentieth century, tropical infectious diseases increased despite earlier successes of eradication campaigns. As a global warming of 1.4-5.8 C is anticipated to occur by 2100, mainly the vector-borne tropical diseases that are particularly sensitive to climate are expected to spread. Although biological reasons seemingly support this hypothesis, ecological and socio-economic factors have in the past proven to be stronger driving forces for the spread of infectious diseases than climate. (orig.)

  8. The effects of global awareness on the spreading of epidemics in multiplex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zang, Haijuan

    2018-02-01

    It is increasingly recognized that understanding the complex interplay patterns between epidemic spreading and human behavioral is a key component of successful infection control efforts. In particular, individuals can obtain the information about epidemics and respond by altering their behaviors, which can affect the spreading dynamics as well. Besides, because the existence of herd-like behaviors, individuals are very easy to be influenced by the global awareness information. Here, in this paper, we propose a global awareness controlled spreading model (GACS) to explore the interplay between the coupled dynamical processes. Using the global microscopic Markov chain approach, we obtain the analytical results for the epidemic thresholds, which shows a high accuracy by comparison with lots of Monte Carlo simulations. Furthermore, considering other classical models used to describe the coupled dynamical processes, including the local awareness controlled contagion spreading (LACS) model, Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible-Unaware-Aware-Unaware (SIS-UAU) model and the single layer occasion, we make a detailed comparisons between the GACS with them. Although the comparisons and results depend on the parameters each model has, the GACS model always shows a strong restrain effects on epidemic spreading process. Our results give us a better understanding of the coupled dynamical processes and highlights the importance of considering the spreading of global awareness in the control of epidemics.

  9. Impact of the topology of global macroeconomic network on the spreading of economic crises.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Kyu-Min; Yang, Jae-Suk; Kim, Gunn; Lee, Jaesung; Goh, Kwang-Il; Kim, In-mook

    2011-03-31

    Throughout economic history, the global economy has experienced recurring crises. The persistent recurrence of such economic crises calls for an understanding of their generic features rather than treating them as singular events. The global economic system is a highly complex system and can best be viewed in terms of a network of interacting macroeconomic agents. In this regard, from the perspective of collective network dynamics, here we explore how the topology of the global macroeconomic network affects the patterns of spreading of economic crises. Using a simple toy model of crisis spreading, we demonstrate that an individual country's role in crisis spreading is not only dependent on its gross macroeconomic capacities, but also on its local and global connectivity profile in the context of the world economic network. We find that on one hand clustering of weak links at the regional scale can significantly aggravate the spread of crises, but on the other hand the current network structure at the global scale harbors higher tolerance of extreme crises compared to more "globalized" random networks. These results suggest that there can be a potential hidden cost in the ongoing globalization movement towards establishing less-constrained, trans-regional economic links between countries, by increasing vulnerability of the global economic system to extreme crises.

  10. The global spread of HIV-1 subtype B epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magiorkinis, Gkikas; Angelis, Konstantinos; Mamais, Ioannis; Katzourakis, Aris; Hatzakis, Angelos; Albert, Jan; Lawyer, Glenn; Hamouda, Osamah; Struck, Daniel; Vercauteren, Jurgen; Wensing, Annemarie; Alexiev, Ivailo; Åsjö, Birgitta; Balotta, Claudia; Gomes, Perpétua; Camacho, Ricardo J; Coughlan, Suzie; Griskevicius, Algirdas; Grossman, Zehava; Horban, Anders; Kostrikis, Leondios G; Lepej, Snjezana J; Liitsola, Kirsi; Linka, Marek; Nielsen, Claus; Otelea, Dan; Paredes, Roger; Poljak, Mario; Puchhammer-Stöckl, Elizabeth; Schmit, Jean Claude; Sönnerborg, Anders; Staneková, Danica; Stanojevic, Maja; Stylianou, Dora C; Boucher, Charles A B; Nikolopoulos, Georgios; Vasylyeva, Tetyana; Friedman, Samuel R; van de Vijver, David; Angarano, Gioacchino; Chaix, Marie-Laure; de Luca, Andrea; Korn, Klaus; Loveday, Clive; Soriano, Vincent; Yerly, Sabine; Zazzi, Mauricio; Vandamme, Anne-Mieke; Paraskevis, Dimitrios

    2016-12-01

    Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) was discovered in the early 1980s when the virus had already established a pandemic. For at least three decades the epidemic in the Western World has been dominated by subtype B infections, as part of a sub-epidemic that traveled from Africa through Haiti to United States. However, the pattern of the subsequent spread still remains poorly understood. Here we analyze a large dataset of globally representative HIV-1 subtype B strains to map their spread around the world over the last 50years and describe significant spread patterns. We show that subtype B travelled from North America to Western Europe in different occasions, while Central/Eastern Europe remained isolated for the most part of the early epidemic. Looking with more detail in European countries we see that the United Kingdom, France and Switzerland exchanged viral isolates with non-European countries than with European ones. The observed pattern is likely to mirror geopolitical landmarks in the post-World War II era, namely the rise and the fall of the Iron Curtain and the European colonialism. In conclusion, HIV-1 spread through specific migration routes which are consistent with geopolitical factors that affected human activities during the last 50years, such as migration, tourism and trade. Our findings support the argument that epidemic control policies should be global and incorporate political and socioeconomic factors. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Ocean, Spreading Centre

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Krishna, K.S.

    over the global midoceanic ridges have found some explicit relationships between spreading rate, seismic structure, and ridge-axis morphology. Bibliography Detrick, R. S., Buhl, P., Vera, E., Mutter, J., Orcutt, J., Madsen, J., and Brocher, T., 1987...

  12. Comparing methods for measuring the rate of spread of invading populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marius Gilbert; Andrew. Liebhold

    2010-01-01

    Measuring rates of spread during biological invasions is important for predicting where and when invading organisms will spread in the future as well as for quantifying the influence of environmental conditions on invasion speed. While several methods have been proposed in the literature to measure spread rates, a comprehensive comparison of their accuracy when applied...

  13. The Real Interest Rate Spread as a Monetary Policy Indicator

    OpenAIRE

    Browne, Frank; Everett, Mary

    2006-01-01

    This paper employs a consumption-based capital asset pricing model to derive the generalised Fisher equation, in order to estimate the natural rate of interest and corresponding real interest rate spread for the US. Analysis reveals not only is the estimated real interest rate spread a useful measure of the degree of looseness/tightness in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance, but also the variable contributes substantially to an understanding of the evolution of US inflation over the...

  14. PENGARUH NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH DAN TINGKAT SUKU BUNGA TERHADAP CREDIT SPREADS RATE OBLIGASI DI INDONESIA PERIODE 2011-2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nora Amelda Rizal

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Risiko kebangkrutan merupakan hal yang sangat dihindari oleh setiap investor. Risiko ini berlaku tidak hanya pada sekuritas berupa saham, namun juga berlaku pada obligasi serta turunannya. Sejak krisis global yang terjadi pada tahun 2008, risiko kebangkrutan ini jelas terlihat pada obligasi korporasi dimana risiko ini terhubung dengan risiko pasar dan risiko kredit. Menurut Rizal (2016 harga obligasi dapat dihubungkan langs ung dengan kedua risiko tersebut . R i siko pasar dapat dilihat dari tingkat pengembalian bunga ( rate of return dan tingkat inflasi ( inflation rate , sedangkan representasi dari ri siko kredit merupakan ri siko rentang kredit ( credit Spreads rate , dimana rentang kredit ini sendiri pun kembali terkait dengan pertukaran kurs asing t erhadap rupiah, seperti ri siko pasar tingkat suku bunga ( rate of return dan tingkat inflasi ( inflation rate . Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menga nalisa lebih lanjut mengenai fak tor yang mempengaruhi credit Spreads rate obligasi di Indonesia. Faktor - fakto r tersebut adalah nilai tukar rupiah dan tingkat pengembalian. Nilai tukar antara US Dollar dan Rupiah akan dipakai untuk mewakili nilai tukar rupiah. Untuk tingkat pengembalian bunga yang dipakai adalah suku bunga tetap yang dikeluarkan oleh Bank Indonesi a. Obligasi yang diteliti adalah obligasi korporasi pada sector telekomunikasi dengan rentang waktu penelitian antara 2011 - 2015. Hasil yang didapat di dalam penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa nilai tukar Rupiah mempunyai pengaruh yang signifikan dan bersif at negatif terhadap Credit Spreads Rate Obligasi di Indonesia periode 2011 - 2015. Sedangkan tingkat suku bunga tidak mempunyai pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap Credit Spreads Rate Obligasi di Indonesia periode 2011 - 2015

  15. What factors drive interest rate spread of commercial banks? Empirical evidence from Kenya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maureen Were

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper empirically investigates the determinants of interest rate spread in Kenya's banking sector based on panel data analysis. The findings show that bank-specific factors play a significant role in the determination of interest rate spreads. These include bank size, credit risk as measured by non-performing loans to total loans ratio, return on average assets and operating costs, all of which positively influence interest rate spreads. On the other hand, higher bank liquidity ratio has a negative effect on the spreads. On average, big banks have higher spreads compared to small banks. The impact of macroeconomic factors such as real economic growth is insignificant. The effect of the monetary policy rate is positive but not highly significant. The results largely reflect the structure of the banking industry, in which a few big banks control a significant share of the market.

  16. Epidemic spread in coupled populations with seasonally varying migration rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muzyczyn, Adam; Shaw, Leah B.

    2009-03-01

    The H5N1 strain of avian influenza has spread worldwide, and this spread may be due to seasonal migration of birds and mixing of birds from different regions in the wintering grounds. We studied a multipatch model for avian influenza with seasonally varying migration rates. The bird population was divided into two spatially distinct patches, or subpopulations. Within each patch, the disease followed the SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model for epidemic spread. Migration rates were varied periodically, with a net flux toward the breeding grounds during the spring and towards the wintering grounds during the fall. The case of two symmetric patches reduced to single-patch SIR dynamics. However, asymmetry in the birth and contact rates in the breeding grounds and wintering grounds led to bifurcations to longer period orbits and chaotic dynamics. We studied the bifurcation structure of the model and the phase relationships between outbreaks in the two patches.

  17. REGIME SWITCHING DETERMINANTS OF SOVEREIGN CDS SPREADS: EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Umurcan Polat

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study, it is assessed the main determinants of sovereign CDS spreads in Turkey from January 2006 to December 2015. Before delving into the nonlinear Markov regime-switching model estimation, a conventional one-state linear model is estimated answering to what extent the sovereign credit risk is affected in between global and country-specific market variables and by credit ratings announcement changes. In broad strokes, the regime-switching analysis reveals that among domestic variables, it is the foreign exchange rate that affects the sovereign credit risk more in more volatile periods and among global variables, the indicators standing for global volatility risk premiums and international liquidity primarily influence the changes in the sovereign CDS spread in turbulent regimes whereas proxies for global risk free rate are significant more in tranquil regimes.

  18. Information spreading dynamics in hypernetworks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suo, Qi; Guo, Jin-Li; Shen, Ai-Zhong

    2018-04-01

    Contact pattern and spreading strategy fundamentally influence the spread of information. Current mathematical methods largely assume that contacts between individuals are fixed by networks. In fact, individuals are affected by all his/her neighbors in different social relationships. Here, we develop a mathematical approach to depict the information spreading process in hypernetworks. Each individual is viewed as a node, and each social relationship containing the individual is viewed as a hyperedge. Based on SIS epidemic model, we construct two spreading models. One model is based on global transmission, corresponding to RP strategy. The other is based on local transmission, corresponding to CP strategy. These models can degenerate into complex network models with a special parameter. Thus hypernetwork models extend the traditional models and are more realistic. Further, we discuss the impact of parameters including structure parameters of hypernetwork, spreading rate, recovering rate as well as information seed on the models. Propagation time and density of informed nodes can reveal the overall trend of information dissemination. Comparing these two models, we find out that there is no spreading threshold in RP, while there exists a spreading threshold in CP. The RP strategy induces a broader and faster information spreading process under the same parameters.

  19. Are the Intraday Effects of Central Bank Intervention on Exchange Rate Spreads Asymmetric and State Dependent?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fatum, Rasmus; Pedersen, Jesper; Sørensen, Peter Norman

    This paper investigates the intraday effects of unannounced foreign exchange intervention on bid-ask exchange rate spreads using official intraday intervention data provided by the Danish central bank. Our starting point is a simple theoretical model of the bid-ask spread which we use to formulate...... exert a significant influence on the exchange rate spread, but in opposite directions: intervention purchases of the smaller currency, on average, reduce the spread while intervention sales, on average, increase the spread. We also show that intervention only affects the exchange rate spread when...... the state of the market is not abnormally volatile. Our results are consistent with the notion that illiquidity arises when traders fear speculative pressure against the smaller currency and confirms the asymmetry hypothesis of our theoretical model....

  20. Evolutionary history and global spread of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis Beijing lineage.

    OpenAIRE

    Merker Matthias; Blin Camille; Mona Stefano; Duforet-Frebourg Nicolas; Lecher Sophie; Willery Eve; Blum Michael G B; Rüsch-Gerdes Sabine; Mokrousov Igor; Aleksic Eman; Allix-Béguec Caroline; Antierens Annick; Augustynowicz-Kopec Ewa; Ballif Marie; Barletta Francesca

    2015-01-01

    International audience; Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains of the Beijing lineage are globally distributed and are associated with the massive spread of multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis in Eurasia. Here we reconstructed the biogeographical structure and evolutionary history of this lineage by genetic analysis of 4,987 isolates from 99 countries and whole-genome sequencing of 110 representative isolates. We show that this lineage initially originated in the Far East, from where it radiat...

  1. Determinants of Commercial banks' interest rate spreads in Botswana

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The paper investigated the determinants of commercial banks' interest rate spreads in Botswana using time series cross-sectional analysis for the period of 2004Q1 to 2014Q4. Factors empirically tested are bank-specific, industry-specific and macroeconomic data. Results indicate that bank intermediation, GDP, inflation ...

  2. The intraday effects of central bank intervention on exchange rate spreads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fatum, Rasmus; Pedersen, Jesper; Sørensen, Peter Norman

    2013-01-01

    We investigate the intraday effects of intra-marginal intervention in a horizontal band on the exchange rate spread. Official intraday data on Danish intervention transactions in the ERM II, the Exchange Rate Mechanism of the European Union, facilitates our analysis. We show that intervention...

  3. Spreading rate dependence of gravity anomalies along oceanic transform faults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregg, Patricia M; Lin, Jian; Behn, Mark D; Montési, Laurent G J

    2007-07-12

    Mid-ocean ridge morphology and crustal accretion are known to depend on the spreading rate of the ridge. Slow-spreading mid-ocean-ridge segments exhibit significant crustal thinning towards transform and non-transform offsets, which is thought to arise from a three-dimensional process of buoyant mantle upwelling and melt migration focused beneath the centres of ridge segments. In contrast, fast-spreading mid-ocean ridges are characterized by smaller, segment-scale variations in crustal thickness, which reflect more uniform mantle upwelling beneath the ridge axis. Here we present a systematic study of the residual mantle Bouguer gravity anomaly of 19 oceanic transform faults that reveals a strong correlation between gravity signature and spreading rate. Previous studies have shown that slow-slipping transform faults are marked by more positive gravity anomalies than their adjacent ridge segments, but our analysis reveals that intermediate and fast-slipping transform faults exhibit more negative gravity anomalies than their adjacent ridge segments. This finding indicates that there is a mass deficit at intermediate- and fast-slipping transform faults, which could reflect increased rock porosity, serpentinization of mantle peridotite, and/or crustal thickening. The most negative anomalies correspond to topographic highs flanking the transform faults, rather than to transform troughs (where deformation is probably focused and porosity and alteration are expected to be greatest), indicating that crustal thickening could be an important contributor to the negative gravity anomalies observed. This finding in turn suggests that three-dimensional magma accretion may occur near intermediate- and fast-slipping transform faults.

  4. Does Central Bank Quality Determine Sovereign Ratings and Credit Default Swap Spreads: Evidence from the World?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramlall Indranarain

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This study innovates from prior research which focuses on the determinants of sovereign ratings and credit default swap spreads for a large sample of countries by incorporating the quality of central banks, let alone refined proxies. Findings show that the explanatory power of both sovereign ratings and CDS spreads model improve by a hefty 11 percent in case of sovereign ratings and 6 to 9 percent in the case of CDS spreads when central bank quality is incorporated. Such a finding bolters the notion that institutional quality does play a preponderant role when it comes to assessing country risk, making it a systematic component of institutional quality. The effect of labour participation implies that countries buffeted by stronger effects of an ageing population have greater propensity of increases in CDS spreads. Evidence is also found as to the driving dynamics of CDS spreads and sovereign ratings to be distinct. Our results hold robust post tackling for endogeneity problem.

  5. Dynamic Correlations of Sovereign Bond Yield Spreads in the Euro zone and the Role of Credit Rating Agencies' Downgrades

    OpenAIRE

    Antonakakis, Nikolaos

    2012-01-01

    The European debt crisis that followed the global financial crisis, erupting first with Greece, then Ireland, Portugal, Italy and Spain, has threatened the very existence of the Euro zone. In this paper we examine the evolution of dynamic co-movements of sovereign bond yield spreads (BYS) in the Euro zone and the role of credit rating agency downgrades on those co-movements. Estimation results from a multivariate DCC-GARCH model on daily BYS data for nine Euro zone countries over the period 2...

  6. Epidemic spreading and global stability of an SIS model with an infective vector on complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Huiyan; Fu, Xinchu

    2015-10-01

    In this paper, we present a new SIS model with delay on scale-free networks. The model is suitable to describe some epidemics which are not only transmitted by a vector but also spread between individuals by direct contacts. In view of the biological relevance and real spreading process, we introduce a delay to denote average incubation period of disease in a vector. By mathematical analysis, we obtain the epidemic threshold and prove the global stability of equilibria. The simulation shows the delay will effect the epidemic spreading. Finally, we investigate and compare two major immunization strategies, uniform immunization and targeted immunization.

  7. Evolutionary history and global spread of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis Beijing lineage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merker, Matthias; Blin, Camille; Mona, Stefano; Duforet-Frebourg, Nicolas; Lecher, Sophie; Willery, Eve; Blum, Michael G B; Rüsch-Gerdes, Sabine; Mokrousov, Igor; Aleksic, Eman; Allix-Béguec, Caroline; Antierens, Annick; Augustynowicz-Kopeć, Ewa; Ballif, Marie; Barletta, Francesca; Beck, Hans Peter; Barry, Clifton E; Bonnet, Maryline; Borroni, Emanuele; Campos-Herrero, Isolina; Cirillo, Daniela; Cox, Helen; Crowe, Suzanne; Crudu, Valeriu; Diel, Roland; Drobniewski, Francis; Fauville-Dufaux, Maryse; Gagneux, Sébastien; Ghebremichael, Solomon; Hanekom, Madeleine; Hoffner, Sven; Jiao, Wei-wei; Kalon, Stobdan; Kohl, Thomas A; Kontsevaya, Irina; Lillebæk, Troels; Maeda, Shinji; Nikolayevskyy, Vladyslav; Rasmussen, Michael; Rastogi, Nalin; Samper, Sofia; Sanchez-Padilla, Elisabeth; Savic, Branislava; Shamputa, Isdore Chola; Shen, Adong; Sng, Li-Hwei; Stakenas, Petras; Toit, Kadri; Varaine, Francis; Vukovic, Dragana; Wahl, Céline; Warren, Robin; Supply, Philip; Niemann, Stefan; Wirth, Thierry

    2015-03-01

    Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains of the Beijing lineage are globally distributed and are associated with the massive spread of multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis in Eurasia. Here we reconstructed the biogeographical structure and evolutionary history of this lineage by genetic analysis of 4,987 isolates from 99 countries and whole-genome sequencing of 110 representative isolates. We show that this lineage initially originated in the Far East, from where it radiated worldwide in several waves. We detected successive increases in population size for this pathogen over the last 200 years, practically coinciding with the Industrial Revolution, the First World War and HIV epidemics. Two MDR clones of this lineage started to spread throughout central Asia and Russia concomitantly with the collapse of the public health system in the former Soviet Union. Mutations identified in genes putatively under positive selection and associated with virulence might have favored the expansion of the most successful branches of the lineage.

  8. A laboratory-scale comparison of rate of spread model predictions using chaparral fuel beds – preliminary results

    Science.gov (United States)

    D.R. Weise; E. Koo; X. Zhou; S. Mahalingam

    2011-01-01

    Observed fire spread rates from 240 laboratory fires in horizontally-oriented single-species live fuel beds were compared to predictions from various implementations and modifications of the Rothermel rate of spread model and a physical fire spread model developed by Pagni and Koo. Packing ratio of the laboratory fuel beds was generally greater than that observed in...

  9. Late Cretaceous and Cenozoic seafloor and oceanic basement roughness: Spreading rate, crustal age and sediment thickness correlations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bird, Robert T.; Pockalny, Robert A.

    1994-05-01

    Single-channel seismic data from the South Australian Basin and Argentine Basin, and bathymetry data from the flanks of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, East Pacific Rise and Southwest Indian Ridge are analysed to determine the root-mean-square (RMS) roughness of the seafloor and oceanic basement created at seafloor spreading rates ranging from 3 to 80 km/Ma (half-rate). For these data, crustal ages range from near zero to 85 Ma and sediment thicknesses range from near zero to over 2 km. Our results are consistent with a negative correlation of basement roughness and spreading rate where roughness decreases dramatically through the slow-spreading regime (oceanic basement roughness and spreading rate appears to have existed since the late Cretaceous for slow and intermediate spreading rates, suggesting that the fundamental processes creating abyssal hill topography may have remained the same for this time period. Basement roughness does not appear to decrease (smooth) with increasing crustal age, and therefore off-ridge degradation of abyssal hill topography by mass wasting is not detected by our data. Seismic data reveal that sediment thickness increases with increasing crustal age in the South Australian Basin and Argentine Basin, but not monotonically and with significant regional variation. We show that minor accumulations of sediment can affect roughness significantly. Average sediment accumulations of less that 50 m (for our 100 km long sample seismic profiles and half-spreading rates ocean ridges.

  10. MACROECONOMIC AND MARKET DETERMINANTS OF INTEREST RATE SPREAD: EVIDENCE FROM ALBANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brunilda NELI

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The banking system, as the most important component of the financial system in Albania, plays a crucial role in economic development. Measuring the efficiency of the intermediation system requires special attention because of its implications on the level of investments, savings, resource allocation etc. The most common indicator for the efficiency of the banking system is the cost of intermediation, measured by the spread of interest rates (the difference between the average lending rate and the average deposit rate. The study aims to analyze the trend of interest rate spread (IRS in Albania for the period 2005-2014 based on a comparative analysis with other countries and to identify the factors with significant impact on the level of IRS in the local currency. It is based on the empirical analysis of several macroeconomic and market factors that determine IRS, used in previous studies in this field, but also incorporating other elements that are associated with the characteristics of the Albanian system. Albania has experienced high IRS during the last decade, with large fluctuations, especially in the local currency. The results of the study based on quarterly panel data for the period 2005-2014 show that IRS in Albania is negatively affected by the level of development of the banking sector and the discount rate, while inflation, deficit rate and monetary supply put positive pressure on this indicator.

  11. Optimizing Hybrid Spreading in Metapopulations.

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, C.; Zhou, S.; Miller, J. C.; Cox, I. J.; Chain, B. M.

    2015-01-01

    Epidemic spreading phenomena are ubiquitous in nature and society. Examples include the spreading of diseases, information, and computer viruses. Epidemics can spread by local spreading, where infected nodes can only infect a limited set of direct target nodes and global spreading, where an infected node can infect every other node. In reality, many epidemics spread using a hybrid mixture of both types of spreading. In this study we develop a theoretical framework for studying hybrid epidemic...

  12. Optimizing Hybrid Spreading in Metapopulations

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Changwang; Zhou, Shi; Miller, Joel C.; Cox, Ingemar J.; Chain, Benjamin M.

    2014-01-01

    Epidemic spreading phenomena are ubiquitous in nature and society. Examples include the spreading of diseases, information, and computer viruses. Epidemics can spread by local spreading, where infected nodes can only infect a limited set of direct target nodes and global spreading, where an infected node can infect every other node. In reality, many epidemics spread using a hybrid mixture of both types of spreading. In this study we develop a theoretical framework for studying hybrid epidemic...

  13. Global malaria connectivity through air travel

    OpenAIRE

    Huang, Zhuojie; Tatem, Andrew J

    2013-01-01

    Background Air travel has expanded at an unprecedented rate and continues to do so. Its effects have been seen on malaria in rates of imported cases, local outbreaks in non-endemic areas and the global spread of drug resistance. With elimination and global eradication back on the agenda, changing levels and compositions of imported malaria in malaria-free countries, and the threat of artemisinin resistance spreading from Southeast Asia, there is a need to better understand how the modern flow...

  14. Estimating the spread rate of urea formaldehyde adhesive on birch (Betula pendula Roth) veneer using fluorescence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toni Antikainen; Anti Rohumaa; Christopher G. Hunt; Mari Levirinne; Mark Hughes

    2015-01-01

    In plywood production, human operators find it difficult to precisely monitor the spread rate of adhesive in real-time. In this study, macroscopic fluorescence was used to estimate spread rate (SR) of urea formaldehyde adhesive on birch (Betula pendula Roth) veneer. This method could be an option when developing automated real-time SR measurement for...

  15. Cooperative spreading processes in multiplex networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Xiang; Chen, Shihua; Wu, Xiaoqun; Ning, Di; Lu, Jun-An

    2016-06-01

    This study is concerned with the dynamic behaviors of epidemic spreading in multiplex networks. A model composed of two interacting complex networks is proposed to describe cooperative spreading processes, wherein the virus spreading in one layer can penetrate into the other to promote the spreading process. The global epidemic threshold of the model is smaller than the epidemic thresholds of the corresponding isolated networks. Thus, global epidemic onset arises in the interacting networks even though an epidemic onset does not arise in each isolated network. Simulations verify the analysis results and indicate that cooperative spreading processes in multiplex networks enhance the final infection fraction.

  16. Time Scale Analysis of Interest Rate Spreads and Output Using Wavelets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Gallegati

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper adds to the literature on the information content of different spreads for real activity by explicitly taking into account the time scale relationship between a variety of monetary and financial indicators (real interest rate, term and credit spreads and output growth. By means of wavelet-based exploratory data analysis we obtain richer results relative to the aggregate analysis by identifying the dominant scales of variation in the data and the scales and location at which structural breaks have occurred. Moreover, using the “double residuals” regression analysis on a scale-by-scale basis, we find that changes in the spread in several markets have different information content for output at different time frames. This is consistent with the idea that allowing for different time scales of variation in the data can provide a fruitful understanding of the complex dynamics of economic relationships between variables with non-stationary or transient components, certainly richer than those obtained using standard time domain methods.

  17. An empirical model of global spread-f occurrence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singleton, D.G.

    1974-09-01

    A method of combining models of ionospheric F-layer peak electron density and irregularity incremental electron density into a model of the occurrence probability of the frequency spreading component of spread-F is presented. The predictions of the model are compared with spread-F occurrence data obtained under sunspot maximum conditions. Good agreement is obtained for latitudes less than 70 0 geomagnetic. At higher latitudes, the inclusion of a 'blackout factor' in the model allows it to accurately represent the data and, in so doing, resolves an apparent discrepancy in the occurrence statistics at high latitudes. The blackout factor is ascribed to the effect of polar blackout on the spread-F statistics and/or the lack of a definitve incremental electron density model for irregularities at polar latitudes. Ways of isolating these effects and assessing their relative importance in the blackout factor are discussed. The model, besides providing estimates of spread-F occurrence on a worldwide basis, which will be of value in the engineering of HF and VHF communications, also furnishes a means of further checking the irregularity incremental electron density model on which it is based. (author)

  18. Flame spread over electrical wire with AC electric fields: Internal circulation, fuel vapor-jet, spread rate acceleration, and molten insulator dripping

    KAUST Repository

    Lim, Seungjae

    2015-04-01

    The effect of electric field on the characteristics of flame spread along a polyethylene (PE) insulated electrical wire was investigated experimentally by varying the AC frequency and voltage applied to the wire. The results showed that the flame spread rate was accelerated due to the convergence of electric flux near the end of wire, having three distinct regimes depending on applied voltage. In each regime, several subregimes could be identified depending on AC frequency. Flame shape (height and width) and slanted direction of the spreading flame were influenced differently. Fuel-vapor jets were ejected from the molten PE surface even for the baseline case without the application of an electric field; this could be attributed to the bursting of fuel vapor bubbles generated from internal boiling at the molten PE surface. An internal circulation of molten-PE was also observed as a result of non-uniform heating by the spreading flame. In the high voltage regime with a high AC frequency, excessive dripping of molten PE led to flame extinction.

  19. Instantaneous global nitrous oxide photochemical rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnston, H.S.; Serang, O.; Podolske, J.

    1979-01-01

    In recent years, vertical profiles of nitrous oxide have been measured by balloon up to midstratosphere at several latitudes between 63 0 N and 73 0 S, including one profile in the tropical zone at 9 0 N. Two rocket flights measured nitrous oxide mixing ratios at 44 and 49 km. From these experimental data plus a large amount of interpolation and extrapolation, we have estimated a global distribution of nitrous oxide up to the altitude of 50 km. With standard global distributions of oxygen and ozone we carried out instantaneous, three-dimensional, global photochemical calculations, using recently measured temperature-dependent cross sections for nitrous oxide. The altitude of maximum photolysis rate of N 2 O is about 30 km at all latitudes, and the rate of photolysis is a maximum in tropical latitudes. The altitude of maximum rate of formation of nitric oxide is latitude dependent, about 26 km at the equator, about 23 km over temperate zones, and 20 km at the summer pole. The global rate of N 2 O destruction is 6.2 x 10 27 molecules s -1 , and the global rate of formation of NO from N 2 O is 1.4 x 10 27 molecules s -1 . The global N 2 O inventory divided by the stratospheric loss rate gives a residence time of about 175 years with respect to this loss process. From the global average N 2 O profile a vertical eddy diffusion profile was derived, and this profile agrees very closely with that of Stewart and Hoffert

  20. Constancy of local spread rates for buffelgrass (Pennisetum ciliare L.) in the Arizona Upland of the Sonoran Desert

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsson, Aaryn D.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Crimmins, Michael A.; Marsh, Stuart E.

    2012-01-01

    In North American deserts, grass invasions threaten native vegetation via competition and altered fire regimes. Accurate prediction and successful mitigation of these invasions hinge on estimation of spread rates and their degree of constancy in time and space. We used high-resolution aerial photographs from 11 sites in the Santa Catalina Mountains, southern Arizona to reconstruct the spread of buffelgrass (Pennisetum ciliare), a C4 perennial bunchgrass, since 1980. The total area infested was fit to a logistic model and residuals of the model were compared to climatic factors of the corresponding and lagged time periods. Infestations grew from small colonizing patches in the 1980s to 66 ha in 2008, doubling every 2.26–7.04 years since 1988. Although buffelgrass germination, establishment and distribution are favored by wet summers and warm winters, climate variables did not predict spread rates. Buffelgrass has grown at a constant rate, at least since 1988, when much of its expansion took place. In the study area, minimum requirements are met almost every year for germination and reproduction, establishing a consistent baseline for spread that manifests as a constant spread rate.

  1. Error associated with model predictions of wildland fire rate of spread

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miguel G. Cruz; Martin E. Alexander

    2015-01-01

    How well can we expect to predict the spread rate of wildfires and prescribed fires? The degree of accuracy in model predictions of wildland fire behaviour characteristics are dependent on the model's applicability to a given situation, the validity of the model's relationships, and the reliability of the model input data (Alexander and Cruz 2013b#. We...

  2. Optimizing hybrid spreading in metapopulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Changwang; Zhou, Shi; Miller, Joel C; Cox, Ingemar J; Chain, Benjamin M

    2015-04-29

    Epidemic spreading phenomena are ubiquitous in nature and society. Examples include the spreading of diseases, information, and computer viruses. Epidemics can spread by local spreading, where infected nodes can only infect a limited set of direct target nodes and global spreading, where an infected node can infect every other node. In reality, many epidemics spread using a hybrid mixture of both types of spreading. In this study we develop a theoretical framework for studying hybrid epidemics, and examine the optimum balance between spreading mechanisms in terms of achieving the maximum outbreak size. We show the existence of critically hybrid epidemics where neither spreading mechanism alone can cause a noticeable spread but a combination of the two spreading mechanisms would produce an enormous outbreak. Our results provide new strategies for maximising beneficial epidemics and estimating the worst outcome of damaging hybrid epidemics.

  3. Predicting online ratings based on the opinion spreading process

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Xing-Sheng; Zhou, Ming-Yang; Zhuo, Zhao; Fu, Zhong-Qian; Liu, Jian-Guo

    2015-10-01

    Predicting users' online ratings is always a challenge issue and has drawn lots of attention. In this paper, we present a rating prediction method by combining the user opinion spreading process with the collaborative filtering algorithm, where user similarity is defined by measuring the amount of opinion a user transfers to another based on the primitive user-item rating matrix. The proposed method could produce a more precise rating prediction for each unrated user-item pair. In addition, we introduce a tunable parameter λ to regulate the preferential diffusion relevant to the degree of both opinion sender and receiver. The numerical results for Movielens and Netflix data sets show that this algorithm has a better accuracy than the standard user-based collaborative filtering algorithm using Cosine and Pearson correlation without increasing computational complexity. By tuning λ, our method could further boost the prediction accuracy when using Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) as measurements. In the optimal cases, on Movielens and Netflix data sets, the corresponding algorithmic accuracy (MAE and RMSE) are improved 11.26% and 8.84%, 13.49% and 10.52% compared to the item average method, respectively.

  4. Process contributions to the intermodel spread in amplified Arctic warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boeke, R.; Taylor, P. C.

    2016-12-01

    The Arctic is warming at a rate more than twice the global average. This robust climate system response to an external forcing is referred to as Arctic Amplification (AA). While Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate models simulate AA, the largest intermodel spread in projected warming is also found in the Arctic. Quantifying the amount of polar warming relative to global warming influences how society adapts to climate change; a 2°C increase in global mean temperature would result in a polar warming between 4-8°C according to the intermodel spread in CMIP5 simulations. A trove of previous work has considered AA diagnostically using variations in the surface energy budget to attribute the intermodel spread in AA to an assortment of feedbacks—surface albedo, cloud, surface turbulent flux, and atmospheric and oceanic energy transport. We consider a systems-thinking approach treating AA as a process that evolves over time. We hypothesize that two specific components of the AA process are most important and influence the intermodel spread. (1) The inability of the Arctic system to effectively remove excess heat sourced from natural variability. The change in the efficiency of the `Arctic air conditioner' is thought to be due to thinner and less extensive sea ice and the resulting ice albedo feedback. (2) The process through which energy is stored in the ocean and exchanged with the atmosphere within the context of the sea ice annual cycle is also important. This study uses CMIP5 simulations from the historical and RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway; an emission scenario with forcing increasing to 8.5 W m-2 by 2100) to analyze how the AA process operates in present and future climate. The intermodel spread in these processes and the influence on the spread in AA are discussed. This approach identifies models that more realistically simulate the AA process and will aid in narrowing intermodel spread in Arctic surface temperature

  5. Role for migratory wild birds in the global spread of avian influenza H5N8

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,; Ip, Hon S.

    2016-01-01

    Avian influenza viruses affect both poultry production and public health. A subtype H5N8 (clade 2.3.4.4) virus, following an outbreak in poultry in South Korea in January 2014, rapidly spread worldwide in 2014–2015. Our analysis of H5N8 viral sequences, epidemiological investigations, waterfowl migration, and poultry trade showed that long-distance migratory birds can play a major role in the global spread of avian influenza viruses. Further, we found that the hemagglutinin of clade 2.3.4.4 virus was remarkably promiscuous, creating reassortants with multiple neuraminidase subtypes. Improving our understanding of the circumpolar circulation of avian influenza viruses in migratory waterfowl will help to provide early warning of threats from avian influenza to poultry, and potentially human, health.

  6. Population-level genomics identifies the emergence and global spread of a human transmissible multidrug-resistant nontuberculous mycobacterium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez-Rincon, Daniela; Everall, Isobel; Brown, Karen P; Moreno, Pablo; Verma, Deepshikha; Hill, Emily; Drijkoningen, Judith; Gilligan, Peter; Esther, Charles R; Noone, Peadar G; Giddings, Olivia; Bell, Scott C.; Thomson, Rachel; Wainwright, Claire E.; Coulter, Chris; Pandey, Sushil; Wood, Michelle E; Stockwell, Rebecca E; Ramsay, Kay A; Sherrard, Laura J; Kidd, Timothy J; Jabbour, Nassib; Johnson, Graham R; Knibbs, Luke D; Morawska, Lidia; Sly, Peter D; Jones, Andrew; Bilton, Diana; Laurenson, Ian; Ruddy, Michael; Bourke, Stephen; Bowler, Ian CJW; Chapman, Stephen J; Clayton, Andrew; Cullen, Mairi; Daniels, Thomas; Dempsey, Owen; Denton, Miles; Desai, Maya; Drew, Richard J; Edenborough, Frank; Evans, Jason; Folb, Jonathan; Humphrey, Helen; Isalska, Barbara; Jensen-Fangel, Søren; Jönsson, Bodil; Jones, Andrew M.; Katzenstein, Terese L; Lillebaek, Troels; MacGregor, Gordon; Mayell, Sarah; Millar, Michael; Modha, Deborah; Nash, Edward F; O’Brien, Christopher; O’Brien, Deirdre; Ohri, Chandra; Pao, Caroline S; Peckham, Daniel; Perrin, Felicity; Perry, Audrey; Pressler, Tania; Prtak, Laura; Qvist, Tavs; Robb, Ali; Rodgers, Helen; Schaffer, Kirsten; Shafi, Nadia; van Ingen, Jakko; Walshaw, Martin; Watson, Danie; West, Noreen; Whitehouse, Joanna; Haworth, Charles S; Harris, Simon R; Ordway, Diane; Parkhill, Julian; Floto, R. Andres

    2016-01-01

    Lung infections with Mycobacterium abscessus, a species of multidrug resistant nontuberculous mycobacteria, are emerging as an important global threat to individuals with cystic fibrosis (CF) where they accelerate inflammatory lung damage leading to increased morbidity and mortality. Previously, M. abscessus was thought to be independently acquired by susceptible individuals from the environment. However, using whole genome analysis of a global collection of clinical isolates, we show that the majority of M. abscessus infections are acquired through transmission, potentially via fomites and aerosols, of recently emerged dominant circulating clones that have spread globally. We demonstrate that these clones are associated with worse clinical outcomes, show increased virulence in cell-based and mouse infection models, and thus represent an urgent international infection challenge. PMID:27846606

  7. Analytical solution of a stochastic model of risk spreading with global coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morita, Satoru; Yoshimura, Jin

    2013-11-01

    We study a stochastic matrix model to understand the mechanics of risk spreading (or bet hedging) by dispersion. Up to now, this model has been mostly dealt with numerically, except for the well-mixed case. Here, we present an analytical result that shows that optimal dispersion leads to Zipf's law. Moreover, we found that the arithmetic ensemble average of the total growth rate converges to the geometric one, because the sample size is finite.

  8. Fuel treatment effectiveness in reducing fire intensity and spread rate - An experimental overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eric Mueller; Nicholas Skowronski; Albert Simeoni; Kenneth Clark; Robert Kremens; William Mell; Michael Gallagher; Jan Thomas; Alexander Filkov; Mohamad El Houssami; John Hom; Bret Butler

    2014-01-01

    Fuel treatments represent a significant component of the wildfire mitigation strategy in the United States. However, the lack of research aimed at quantifying the explicit effectiveness of fuel treatments in reducing wildfire intensity and spread rate limits our ability to make educated decisions about the type and placement of these treatments. As part of a larger...

  9. A 3D vision system for the measurement of the rate of spread and the height of fire fronts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rossi, L; Molinier, T; Tison, Y; Pieri, A; Akhloufi, M

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a three-dimensional (3D) vision-based instrumentation system for the measurement of the rate of spread and height of complex fire fronts. The proposed 3D imaging system is simple, does not require calibration, is easily deployable in indoor and outdoor environments and can handle complex fire fronts. New approaches for measuring the position, the rate of spread and the height of a fire front during its propagation are introduced. Experiments were conducted in indoor and outdoor conditions with fires of different scales. Linear and curvilinear fire front spreading were studied. The obtained results are promising and show the interesting performance of the proposed system in operational and complex fire scenarios

  10. Real-time numerical forecast of global epidemic spreading: case study of 2009 A/H1N1pdm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tizzoni Michele

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Mathematical and computational models for infectious diseases are increasingly used to support public-health decisions; however, their reliability is currently under debate. Real-time forecasts of epidemic spread using data-driven models have been hindered by the technical challenges posed by parameter estimation and validation. Data gathered for the 2009 H1N1 influenza crisis represent an unprecedented opportunity to validate real-time model predictions and define the main success criteria for different approaches. Methods We used the Global Epidemic and Mobility Model to generate stochastic simulations of epidemic spread worldwide, yielding (among other measures the incidence and seeding events at a daily resolution for 3,362 subpopulations in 220 countries. Using a Monte Carlo Maximum Likelihood analysis, the model provided an estimate of the seasonal transmission potential during the early phase of the H1N1 pandemic and generated ensemble forecasts for the activity peaks in the northern hemisphere in the fall/winter wave. These results were validated against the real-life surveillance data collected in 48 countries, and their robustness assessed by focusing on 1 the peak timing of the pandemic; 2 the level of spatial resolution allowed by the model; and 3 the clinical attack rate and the effectiveness of the vaccine. In addition, we studied the effect of data incompleteness on the prediction reliability. Results Real-time predictions of the peak timing are found to be in good agreement with the empirical data, showing strong robustness to data that may not be accessible in real time (such as pre-exposure immunity and adherence to vaccination campaigns, but that affect the predictions for the attack rates. The timing and spatial unfolding of the pandemic are critically sensitive to the level of mobility data integrated into the model. Conclusions Our results show that large-scale models can be used to provide valuable real

  11. Global equivalent magnetization of the oceanic lithosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dyment, J.; Choi, Y.; Hamoudi, M.; Lesur, V.; Thebault, E.

    2015-11-01

    As a by-product of the construction of a new World Digital Magnetic Anomaly Map over oceanic areas, we use an original approach based on the global forward modeling of seafloor spreading magnetic anomalies and their comparison to the available marine magnetic data to derive the first map of the equivalent magnetization over the World's ocean. This map reveals consistent patterns related to the age of the oceanic lithosphere, the spreading rate at which it was formed, and the presence of mantle thermal anomalies which affects seafloor spreading and the resulting lithosphere. As for the age, the equivalent magnetization decreases significantly during the first 10-15 Myr after its formation, probably due to the alteration of crustal magnetic minerals under pervasive hydrothermal alteration, then increases regularly between 20 and 70 Ma, reflecting variations in the field strength or source effects such as the acquisition of a secondary magnetization. As for the spreading rate, the equivalent magnetization is twice as strong in areas formed at fast rate than in those formed at slow rate, with a threshold at ∼40 km/Myr, in agreement with an independent global analysis of the amplitude of Anomaly 25. This result, combined with those from the study of the anomalous skewness of marine magnetic anomalies, allows building a unified model for the magnetic structure of normal oceanic lithosphere as a function of spreading rate. Finally, specific areas affected by thermal mantle anomalies at the time of their formation exhibit peculiar equivalent magnetization signatures, such as the cold Australian-Antarctic Discordance, marked by a lower magnetization, and several hotspots, marked by a high magnetization.

  12. Modelling fast spreading patterns of airborne infectious diseases using complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brenner, Frank; Marwan, Norbert; Hoffmann, Peter

    2017-04-01

    The pandemics of SARS (2002/2003) and H1N1 (2009) have impressively shown the potential of epidemic outbreaks of infectious diseases in a world that is strongly connected. Global air travelling established an easy and fast opportunity for pathogens to migrate globally in only a few days. This made epidemiological prediction harder. By understanding this complex development and its link to climate change we can suggest actions to control a part of global human health affairs. In this study we combine the following data components to simulate the outbreak of an airborne infectious disease that is directly transmitted from human to human: em{Global Air Traffic Network (from openflights.org) with information on airports, airport location, direct flight connection, airplane type} em{Global population dataset (from SEDAC, NASA)} em{Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) compartmental model to simulate disease spreading in the vicinity of airports. A modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model to analyze the impact of the incubation period.} em{WATCH-Forcing-Data-ERA-Interim (WFDEI) climate data: temperature, specific humidity, surface air pressure, and water vapor pressure} These elements are implemented into a complex network. Nodes inside the network represent airports. Each single node is equipped with its own SIR/SEIR compartmental model with node specific attributes. Edges between those nodes represent direct flight connections that allow infected individuals to move between linked nodes. Therefore the interaction of the set of unique SIR models creates the model dynamics we will analyze. To better figure out the influence on climate change on disease spreading patterns, we focus on Influenza-like-Illnesses (ILI). The transmission rate of ILI has a dependency on climate parameters like humidity and temperature. Even small changes of environmental variables can trigger significant differences in the global outbreak behavior. Apart from the direct

  13. The Relation Between Plate Spreading Rate, Crustal Thickness and Axial Relief at Mid-Ocean Ridges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Z.; Buck, W. R.

    2017-12-01

    Variations in axial valley relief and in faulting at plate spreading centers are clearly related to magma supply and axial lithospheric structure. Previous models that consider the interaction of magmatic dikes with lithospheric stretching do not successfully reproduce both of these trends. We present the first model that reproduces these trends by making simple assumptions about the partitioning of magma between dikes, gabbros and extrusives. A key concept is that dikes open not only in the brittle axial lithosphere but also into the underlying ductile crust, where they cool to form gabbro. The amount of gabbro so intruded depends on magma pressure that is related to axial relief. The deeper the valley the less magma goes into gabbros and the more magma is available for dikes to accommodate plate separation. We define the fraction of plate separation rate accommodated by dikes as M. If Mreasonable. Finally, we describe themo-mechanical models that allow us to relate plate spreading rate and crustal thickness and to axial valley depth.

  14. Mitochondrial Phylogenomics Resolves the Global Spread of Higher Termites, Ecosystem Engineers of the Tropics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourguignon, Thomas; Lo, Nathan; Šobotník, Jan; Ho, Simon Y W; Iqbal, Naeem; Coissac, Eric; Lee, Maria; Jendryka, Martin M; Sillam-Dussès, David; Krížková, Barbora; Roisin, Yves; Evans, Theodore A

    2017-03-01

    The higher termites (Termitidae) are keystone species and ecosystem engineers. They have exceptional biomass and play important roles in decomposition of dead plant matter, in soil manipulation, and as the primary food for many animals, especially in the tropics. Higher termites are most diverse in rainforests, with estimated origins in the late Eocene (∼54 Ma), postdating the breakup of Pangaea and Gondwana when most continents became separated. Since termites are poor fliers, their origin and spread across the globe requires alternative explanation. Here, we show that higher termites originated 42-54 Ma in Africa and subsequently underwent at least 24 dispersal events between the continents in two main periods. Using phylogenetic analyses of mitochondrial genomes from 415 species, including all higher termite taxonomic and feeding groups, we inferred 10 dispersal events to South America and Asia 35-23 Ma, coinciding with the sharp decrease in global temperature, sea level, and rainforest cover in the Oligocene. After global temperatures increased, 23-5 Ma, there was only one more dispersal to South America but 11 to Asia and Australia, and one dispersal back to Africa. Most of these dispersal events were transoceanic and might have occurred via floating logs. The spread of higher termites across oceans was helped by the novel ecological opportunities brought about by environmental and ecosystem change, and led termites to become one of the few insect groups with specialized mammal predators. This has parallels with modern invasive species that have been able to thrive in human-impacted ecosystems. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  15. Free energy analysis of cell spreading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McEvoy, Eóin; Deshpande, Vikram S; McGarry, Patrick

    2017-10-01

    In this study we present a steady-state adaptation of the thermodynamically motivated stress fiber (SF) model of Vigliotti et al. (2015). We implement this steady-state formulation in a non-local finite element setting where we also consider global conservation of the total number of cytoskeletal proteins within the cell, global conservation of the number of binding integrins on the cell membrane, and adhesion limiting ligand density on the substrate surface. We present a number of simulations of cell spreading in which we consider a limited subset of the possible deformed spread-states assumed by the cell in order to examine the hypothesis that free energy minimization drives the process of cell spreading. Simulations suggest that cell spreading can be viewed as a competition between (i) decreasing cytoskeletal free energy due to strain induced assembly of cytoskeletal proteins into contractile SFs, and (ii) increasing elastic free energy due to stretching of the mechanically passive components of the cell. The computed minimum free energy spread area is shown to be lower for a cell on a compliant substrate than on a rigid substrate. Furthermore, a low substrate ligand density is found to limit cell spreading. The predicted dependence of cell spread area on substrate stiffness and ligand density is in agreement with the experiments of Engler et al. (2003). We also simulate the experiments of Théry et al. (2006), whereby initially circular cells deform and adhere to "V-shaped" and "Y-shaped" ligand patches. Analysis of a number of different spread states reveals that deformed configurations with the lowest free energy exhibit a SF distribution that corresponds to experimental observations, i.e. a high concentration of highly aligned SFs occurs along free edges, with lower SF concentrations in the interior of the cell. In summary, the results of this study suggest that cell spreading is driven by free energy minimization based on a competition between decreasing

  16. Introduction: simultaneously global and local: reassessing smallpox vaccination and its spread, 1789-1900.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharya, Sanjoy; Brimnes, Niels

    2009-01-01

    The last two decades have seen a reawakening of scholarly interest in the history of smallpox prevention. Accounts of vaccination and others efforts at controlling smallpox have moved away from heroic narratives toward more nuanced and contextualized understandings. It is now accepted that several viruses traveled under the vaccine label from the outset, and it has been demonstrated that a variety of techniques were used to perform vaccination operations. The character of nineteenth century sea voyages that took the vaccine to distant territories has also been re-examined; sometimes the spread of the vaccine was caused by private networks and ad hoc decisions, while at other times it was the result of enterprises with close resemblances to contemporary centralized vaccination campaigns. Looking beyond Europe and North America we encounter a variety of state attitudes toward vaccination, ranging from concentrated efforts to spread the technique to efforts more uncertain and diluted. Although the reluctance to accept vaccination has been amply documented, recent studies emphasize this should not be attributed to simplistic dichotomies of modernity versus tradition or science versus culture; instead, instances of resistance are best studied as specific contextualized interactions. Indeed, factors like favorable geography, strong bureaucratic structures, and the absence of variolation seem to have helped the relatively smooth transfer of vaccination technologies. Perhaps most important, recent research encourages us to continue to study smallpox vaccination as a phenomenon that was simultaneously global and local.

  17. Poverty Mapping Project: Global Subnational Infant Mortality Rates

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Global Subnational Infant Mortality Rates consists of estimates of infant mortality rates for the year 2000. The infant mortality rate for a region or country is...

  18. Cross-border spread, lineage displacement and evolutionary rate estimation of rabies virus in Yunnan Province, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yuzhen; Vrancken, Bram; Feng, Yun; Dellicour, Simon; Yang, Qiqi; Yang, Weihong; Zhang, Yunzhi; Dong, Lu; Pybus, Oliver G; Zhang, Hailin; Tian, Huaiyu

    2017-06-03

    Rabies is an important but underestimated threat to public health, with most cases reported in Asia. Since 2000, a new epidemic wave of rabies has emerged in Yunnan Province, southwestern China, which borders three countries in Southeast Asia. We estimated gene-specific evolutionary rates for rabies virus using available data in GenBank, then used this information to calibrate the timescale of rabies virus (RABV) spread in Asia. We used 452 publicly available geo-referenced complete nucleoprotein (N) gene sequences, including 52 RABV sequences that were recently generated from samples collected in Yunnan between 2008 and 2012. The RABV N gene evolutionary rate was estimated to be 1.88 × 10 -4 (1.37-2.41 × 10 -4 , 95% Bayesian credible interval, BCI) substitutions per site per year. Phylogenetic reconstructions show that the currently circulating RABV lineages in Yunnan result from at least seven independent introductions (95% BCI: 6-9 introductions) and represent each of the three main Asian RABV lineages, SEA-1, -2 and -3. We find that Yunnan is a sink location for the domestic spread of RABV and connects RABV epidemics in North China, South China, and Southeast Asia. Cross-border spread from southeast Asia (SEA) into South China, and intermixing of the North and South China epidemics is also well supported. The influx of RABV into Yunnan from SEA was not well-supported, likely due to the poor sampling of SEA RABV diversity. We found evidence for a lineage displacement of the Yunnan SEA-2 and -3 lineages by Yunnan SEA-1 strains, and considered whether this could be attributed to fitness differences. Overall, our study contributes to a better understanding of the spread of RABV that could facilitate future rabies virus control and prevention efforts.

  19. Resource Allocation with Adaptive Spread Spectrum OFDM Using 2D Spreading for Power Line Communications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baudais, Jean-Yves; Crussière, Matthieu

    2007-12-01

    Bit-loading techniques based on orthogonal frequency division mutiplexing (OFDM) are frequently used over wireline channels. In the power line context, channel state information can reasonably be obtained at both transmitter and receiver sides, and adaptive loading can advantageously be carried out. In this paper, we propose to apply loading principles to an spread spectrum OFDM (SS-OFDM) waveform which is a multicarrier system using 2D spreading in the time and frequency domains. The presented algorithm handles the subcarriers, spreading codes, bits and energies assignment in order to maximize the data rate and the range of the communication system. The optimization is realized at a target symbol error rate and under spectral mask constraint as usually imposed. The analytical study shows that the merging principle realized by the spreading code improves the rate and the range of the discrete multitone (DMT) system in single and multiuser contexts. Simulations have been run over measured power line communication (PLC) channel responses and highlight that the proposed system is all the more interesting than the received signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is low.

  20. Hybrid epidemic spreading - from Internet worms to HIV infection

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, C.

    2015-01-01

    Epidemic phenomena are ubiquitous, ranging from infectious diseases, computer viruses, to information dissemination. Epidemics have traditionally been studied as a single spreading process, either in a fully mixed population or on a network. Many epidemics, however, are hybrid, employing more than one spreading mechanism. For example, the Internet worm Conficker spreads locally targeting neighbouring computers in local networks as well as globally by randomly probing any computer on the Inter...

  1. Redefinition and global estimation of basal ecosystem respiration rate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yuan, Wenping [College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Luo, Yiqi [Department of Botany and Microbiology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Li, Xianglan [College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Liu, Shuguang; Yu, Guirui [Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Synthesis Research Center of Chinese Ecosystem Research Network, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Zhou, Tao [State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Bahn, Michael [Institute of Ecology, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria; Black, Andy [Faculty of Land and Food Systems, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, B. C., Canada; Desai, Ankur R. [Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Department, Center for Climatic Research, Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Cescatti, Alessandro [Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Ispra, Italy; Marcolla, Barbara [Sustainable Agro-ecosystems and Bioresources Department, Fondazione Edmund Mach-IASMA Research and Innovation Centre, San Michele all' Adige, Italy; Jacobs, Cor [Alterra, Earth System Science-Climate Change, Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands; Chen, Jiquan [Department of Earth, Ecological, and Environmental Sciences, University of Toledo, Toledo, Ohio, USA; Aurela, Mika [Climate and Global Change Research, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland; Bernhofer, Christian [Chair of Meteorology, Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology, Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, Germany; Gielen, Bert [Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, Wilrijk, Belgium; Bohrer, Gil [Department of Civil, Environmental, and Geodetic Engineering, Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, USA; Cook, David R. [Climate Research Section, Environmental Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois, USA; Dragoni, Danilo [Department of Geography, Indiana University, Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Dunn, Allison L. [Department of Physical and Earth Sciences, Worcester State College, Worcester, Massachusetts, USA; Gianelle, Damiano [Sustainable Agro-ecosystems and Bioresources Department, Fondazione Edmund Mach-IASMA Research and Innovation Centre, San Michele all' Adige, Italy; Grünwald, Thomas [Chair of Meteorology, Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology, Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, Germany; Ibrom, Andreas [Risø DTU National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy, Biosystems Division, Technical University of Denmark, Roskilde, Denmark; Leclerc, Monique Y. [Department of Crop and Soil Sciences, College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, University of Georgia, Griffin, Georgia, USA; Lindroth, Anders [Geobiosphere Science Centre, Physical Geography and Ecosystems Analysis, Lund University, Lund, Sweden; Liu, Heping [Laboratory for Atmospheric Research, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman, Washington, USA; Marchesini, Luca Belelli [Department for Innovation in Biological, Agro-Food and Forest Systems, University of Tuscia, Viterbo, Italy; Montagnani, Leonardo; Pita, Gabriel [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Instituto Superior Técnico, Lisbon, Portugal; Rodeghiero, Mirco [Sustainable Agro-ecosystems and Bioresources Department, Fondazione Edmund Mach-IASMA Research and Innovation Centre, San Michele all' Adige, Italy; Rodrigues, Abel [Unidade de Silvicultura e Produtos Florestais, Instituto Nacional dos Recursos Biológicos, Oeiras, Portugal; Starr, Gregory [Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Stoy, Paul C. [Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences, Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana, USA

    2011-10-13

    Basal ecosystem respiration rate (BR), the ecosystem respiration rate at a given temperature, is a common and important parameter in empirical models for quantifying ecosystem respiration (ER) globally. Numerous studies have indicated that BR varies in space. However, many empirical ER models still use a global constant BR largely due to the lack of a functional description for BR. In this study, we redefined BR to be ecosystem respiration rate at the mean annual temperature. To test the validity of this concept, we conducted a synthesis analysis using 276 site-years of eddy covariance data, from 79 research sites located at latitudes ranging from ~3°S to ~70°N. Results showed that mean annual ER rate closely matches ER rate at mean annual temperature. Incorporation of site-specific BR into global ER model substantially improved simulated ER compared to an invariant BR at all sites. These results confirm that ER at the mean annual

  2. Molecular phylogeography of canine distemper virus: Geographic origin and global spreading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panzera, Yanina; Sarute, Nicolás; Iraola, Gregorio; Hernández, Martín; Pérez, Ruben

    2015-11-01

    Canine distemper virus (CDV) (Paramyxoviridae-Morbillivirus) is a worldwide spread virus causing a fatal systemic disease in a broad range of carnivore hosts. In this study we performed Bayesian inferences using 208 full-length hemagglutinin gene nucleotide sequences isolated in 16 countries during 37 years (1975-2011). The estimated time to the most recent common ancestor suggested that current CDV strains emerged in the United States in the 1880s. This ancestor diversified through time into two ancestral clades, the current America 1 lineage that recently spread to Asia, and other ancestral clade that diversified and spread worldwide to originate the remaining eight lineages characterized to date. The spreading of CDV was characterized by several migratory events with posterior local differentiation, and expansion of the virus host range. A significant genetic flow between domestic and wildlife hosts is displayed; being domestic hosts the main viral reservoirs worldwide. This study is an extensive and integrative description of spatio/temporal population dynamics of CDV lineages that provides a novel evolutionary paradigm about the origin and dissemination of the current strains of the virus. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Guangming; Wang, Xingyuan

    2014-06-01

    The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold qc. The epidemic will survive when q > qc and die when q epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure.

  4. Regime-dependent determinants of Euro area sovereign CDS spreads

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Blommestein, H.J.; Eijffinger, Sylvester; Qian, Zongxin

    We study the determinants of sovereign CDS spreads of five Euro area countries (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain) after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. We find that global and/or European Monetary Union (EMU)-wide factors are the main drivers of changes in the sovereign CDS spreads in

  5. Redefinition and global estimation of basal ecosystem respiration rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, W.; Luo, Y.; Li, X.; Liu, S.; Yu, G.; Zhou, T.; Bahn, M.; Black, A.; Desai, A.R.; Cescatti, A.; Marcolla, B.; Jacobs, C.; Chen, J.; Aurela, M.; Bernhofer, C.; Gielen, B.; Bohrer, G.; Cook, D.R.; Dragoni, D.; Dunn, A.L.; Gianelle, D.; Grnwald, T.; Ibrom, A.; Leclerc, M.Y.; Lindroth, A.; Liu, H.; Marchesini, L.B.; Montagnani, L.; Pita, G.; Rodeghiero, M.; Rodrigues, A.; Starr, G.; Stoy, Paul C.

    2011-01-01

    Basal ecosystem respiration rate (BR), the ecosystem respiration rate at a given temperature, is a common and important parameter in empirical models for quantifying ecosystem respiration (ER) globally. Numerous studies have indicated that BR varies in space. However, many empirical ER models still use a global constant BR largely due to the lack of a functional description for BR. In this study, we redefined BR to be ecosystem respiration rate at the mean annual temperature. To test the validity of this concept, we conducted a synthesis analysis using 276 site-years of eddy covariance data, from 79 research sites located at latitudes ranging from ∼3°S to ∼70°N. Results showed that mean annual ER rate closely matches ER rate at mean annual temperature. Incorporation of site-specific BR into global ER model substantially improved simulated ER compared to an invariant BR at all sites. These results confirm that ER at the mean annual temperature can be considered as BR in empirical models. A strong correlation was found between the mean annual ER and mean annual gross primary production (GPP). Consequently, GPP, which is typically more accurately modeled, can be used to estimate BR. A light use efficiency GPP model (i.e., EC-LUE) was applied to estimate global GPP, BR and ER with input data from MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications) and MODIS (Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer). The global ER was 103 Pg C yr −1, with the highest respiration rate over tropical forests and the lowest value in dry and high-latitude areas.

  6. Assessing historical rate changes in global tsunami occurrence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geist, E.L.; Parsons, T.

    2011-01-01

    The global catalogue of tsunami events is examined to determine if transient variations in tsunami rates are consistent with a Poisson process commonly assumed for tsunami hazard assessments. The primary data analyzed are tsunamis with maximum sizes >1m. The record of these tsunamis appears to be complete since approximately 1890. A secondary data set of tsunamis >0.1m is also analyzed that appears to be complete since approximately 1960. Various kernel density estimates used to determine the rate distribution with time indicate a prominent rate change in global tsunamis during the mid-1990s. Less prominent rate changes occur in the early- and mid-20th century. To determine whether these rate fluctuations are anomalous, the distribution of annual event numbers for the tsunami catalogue is compared to Poisson and negative binomial distributions, the latter of which includes the effects of temporal clustering. Compared to a Poisson distribution, the negative binomial distribution model provides a consistent fit to tsunami event numbers for the >1m data set, but the Poisson null hypothesis cannot be falsified for the shorter duration >0.1m data set. Temporal clustering of tsunami sources is also indicated by the distribution of interevent times for both data sets. Tsunami event clusters consist only of two to four events, in contrast to protracted sequences of earthquakes that make up foreshock-main shock-aftershock sequences. From past studies of seismicity, it is likely that there is a physical triggering mechanism responsible for events within the tsunami source 'mini-clusters'. In conclusion, prominent transient rate increases in the occurrence of global tsunamis appear to be caused by temporal grouping of geographically distinct mini-clusters, in addition to the random preferential location of global M >7 earthquakes along offshore fault zones.

  7. Can molecular diffusion explain Space Shuttle plume spreading?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meier, R. R.; Plane, John M. C.; Stevens, Michael H.; Paxton, L. J.; Christensen, A. B.; Crowley, G.

    2010-04-01

    The satellite-borne Global Ultraviolet Imager (GUVI) has produced more than 20 images of NASA Space Shuttle main engine plumes in the lower thermosphere. These reveal atomic hydrogen and, by inference, water vapor transport over hemispherical-scale distances with speeds much faster than expected from models of thermospheric wind motions. Furthermore, the hydrogen plumes expand rapidly. We find rates that exceed the horizontal diffusion speed at nominal plume altitudes of 104-112 km. Kelley et al. (2009) have proposed a 2-D turbulence mechanism to explain the observed spreading rates (and rapid advection) of the plumes. But upon further investigation, we conclude that H atom diffusion can indeed account for the observed expansion rates by recognizing that vertical diffusion quickly conveys atoms to higher altitudes where horizontal diffusion is much more rapid. We also find evidence for H atom production directly during the Shuttle's main engine burn.

  8. Social networks and spreading of epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trimper, Steffen; Zheng, Dafang; Brandau, Marian

    2004-05-01

    Epidemiological processes are studied within a recently proposed social network model using the susceptible-infected-refractory dynamics (SIR) of an epidemic. Within the network model, a population of individuals may be characterized by H independent hierarchies or dimensions, each of which consists of groupings of individuals into layers of subgroups. Detailed numerical simulations reveals that for H > 1, the global spreading results regardless of the degree of homophily α of the individuals forming a social circle. For H = 1, a transition from a global to a local spread occurs as the population becomes decomposed into increasingly homophilous groups. Multiple dimensions in classifying individuals (nodes) thus make a society (computer network) highly susceptible to large scale outbreaks of infectious diseases (viruses). The SIR-model can be extended by the inclusion of waiting times resulting in modified distribution function of the recovered.

  9. Resource Allocation with Adaptive Spread Spectrum OFDM Using 2D Spreading for Power Line Communications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baudais Jean-Yves

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Bit-loading techniques based on orthogonal frequency division mutiplexing (OFDM are frequently used over wireline channels. In the power line context, channel state information can reasonably be obtained at both transmitter and receiver sides, and adaptive loading can advantageously be carried out. In this paper, we propose to apply loading principles to an spread spectrum OFDM (SS-OFDM waveform which is a multicarrier system using 2D spreading in the time and frequency domains. The presented algorithm handles the subcarriers, spreading codes, bits and energies assignment in order to maximize the data rate and the range of the communication system. The optimization is realized at a target symbol error rate and under spectral mask constraint as usually imposed. The analytical study shows that the merging principle realized by the spreading code improves the rate and the range of the discrete multitone (DMT system in single and multiuser contexts. Simulations have been run over measured power line communication (PLC channel responses and highlight that the proposed system is all the more interesting than the received signal-to-noise ratio (SNR is low.

  10. Credit Portfolio Management in a Turning Rates Environment

    OpenAIRE

    Berd, Arthur M.; Ranguelova, Elena; da Silva, Antonio Baldaque

    2013-01-01

    We give a detailed account of correlations between credit sector/quality and treasury curve factors, using the robust framework of the Barclays POINT Global Risk Model. Consistent with earlier studies, we find a strong negative correlation between sector spreads and rate shifts. However, we also observe that the correlations between spreads and Treasury twists reversed recently, which is likely attributable to the Fed's ongoing quantitative easing. We also find that short-term effective durat...

  11. Flame spread over inclined electrical wires with AC electric fields

    KAUST Repository

    Lim, Seung J.

    2017-07-21

    Flame spread over polyethylene-insulated electrical wires was studied experimentally with applied alternating current (AC) by varying the inclination angle (θ), applied voltage (VAC), and frequency (fAC). For the baseline case with no electric field applied, the flame spread rate and the flame width of downwardly spreading flames (DSFs) decreased from the horizontal case for −20° ≤ θ < 0° and maintained near constant values for −90° ≤ θ < −20°, while the flame spread rate increased appreciably as the inclination angle of upwardly spreading flames (USFs) increased. When an AC electric field was applied, the behavior of flame spread rate in DSFs (USFs) could be classified into two (three) sub-regimes characterized by various functional dependences on VAC, fAC, and θ. In nearly all cases of DSFs, a globular molten polyethylene formed ahead of the spreading flame edge, occasionally dripping onto the ground. In these cases, an effective flame spread rate was defined to represent the burning rate by measuring the mass loss due to dripping. This effective spread rate was independent of AC frequency, while it decreased linearly with voltage and was independent of the inclination angle. In DSFs, when excessively high voltage and frequency were applied, the dripping led to flame extinction during propagation and the extinction frequency correlated well with applied voltage. In USFs, when high voltage and frequency were applied, multiple globular molten PEs formed at several locations, leading to ejections of multiple small flame segments from the main flame, thereby reducing the flame spread rate, which could be attributed to the electrospray phenomenon.

  12. Spread of endemic disease and global change in an educational project: proposition of relationships developed in a twin partnership

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michela Viale

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The sudden event of the spread of dengue fever (or break-bone fever that appeared for the first time in Cape Verde in 2009 revealed that inappropriate management of waste can be considered a major cause of the spread of this disease. Dengue fever is a tropical infectious disease that is caused by the dengue virus. Its vector, the mosquito Aedes aegypti, found an optimal environment for its life cycle in the context of Cape Verde, with the persistence of water in abandoned waste objects. The connection between the topics of Earth sciences and the spread of this disease is not obvious, but it was explored and illustrated in a school partnership. Activities with pupils and students provided an opportunity to investigate how some global phenomena, like climate change (with an increase in local rainfall and higher temperatures, are related to local events, such as the spread of dengue fever. Preventive strategies are conditioned by the geomorphology of the territory and by the complex relationships that connect the geosphere and the biosphere. For this reason, it is important to be aware of the risk of breaking these delicate balances, and hence activating unexpected consequences. The roles played by both partners linked knowledge about the natural dynamics of our planet with the development of appropriate behavior, thus contributing to the formation of responsible citizenship, to preserve and protect the environment. The partnership encouraged students to develop sustainable management strategies against dengue fever, and consequently against waste, actively involving them at school, at home, and in their community. In this study, we present a case study of the role of a school partnership in a complex problem, such as the spread of dengue fever and environmental pollution.

  13. The impact of awareness on epidemic spreading in networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qingchu; Fu, Xinchu; Small, Michael; Xu, Xin-Jian

    2012-03-01

    We explore the impact of awareness on epidemic spreading through a population represented by a scale-free network. Using a network mean-field approach, a mathematical model for epidemic spreading with awareness reactions is proposed and analyzed. We focus on the role of three forms of awareness including local, global, and contact awareness. By theoretical analysis and simulation, we show that the global awareness cannot decrease the likelihood of an epidemic outbreak while both the local awareness and the contact awareness can. Also, the influence degree of the local awareness on disease dynamics is closely related with the contact awareness.

  14. Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ren, Guangming, E-mail: wangxy@dlut.edu.cn, E-mail: ren-guang-ming@163.com [School of Electronic and Information, Guangdong Polytechnic Normal University, Guangzhou 510665 (China); Faculty of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China); Wang, Xingyuan, E-mail: wangxy@dlut.edu.cn, E-mail: ren-guang-ming@163.com [Faculty of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China)

    2014-06-15

    The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold q{sub c}. The epidemic will survive when q > q{sub c} and die when q < q{sub c}. These results can help understanding the impacts of human travel on the epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure.

  15. Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ren, Guangming; Wang, Xingyuan

    2014-01-01

    The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold q c . The epidemic will survive when q > q c and die when q  c . These results can help understanding the impacts of human travel on the epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure

  16. Crustal accretion along the global mid-ocean ridge system based on basaltic glass and olivine-hosted melt inclusion compositions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wanless, V. D.; Behn, M. D.

    2015-12-01

    The depth and distribution of crystallization at mid-ocean ridges controls the overall architecture of the oceanic crust, influences hydrothermal circulation, and determines geothermal gradients in the crust and uppermost mantle. Despite this, there is no overall consensus on how crystallization is distributed within the crust/upper mantle or how this varies with spreading rate. Here, we examine crustal accretion at mid-ocean ridges by combining crystallization pressures calculated from major element barometers on mid-ocean ridge basalt (MORB) glasses with vapor-saturation pressures from melt inclusions to produce a detailed map of crystallization depths and distributions along the global ridge system. We calculate pressures of crystallization from >11,500 MORB glasses from the global ridge system using two established major element barometers (1,2). Additionally, we use vapor-saturation pressures from >400 olivine-hosted melt inclusions from five ridges with variable spreading rates to constrain pressures and distributions of crystallization along the global ridge system. We show that (i) crystallization depths from MORB glasses increase and become less focused with decreasing spreading rate, (ii) maximum glass pressures are greater than the maximum melt inclusion pressure, which indicates that the melt inclusions do not record the deepest crystallization at mid-ocean ridges, and (iii) crystallization occurs in the lower crust/upper mantle at all ridges, indicating accretion is distributed throughout the crust at all spreading rates, including those with a steady-state magma lens. Finally, we suggest that the remarkably similar maximum vapor-saturation pressures (~ 3000 bars) in melt inclusion from all spreading rates reflects the CO2 content of the depleted upper mantle feeding the global mid-ocean ridge system. (1) Michael, P. & W. Cornell (1998), Journal of Geophysical Research, 103(B8), 18325-18356; (2) Herzberg, C. (2004), Journal of Petrology, 45(12), 2389.

  17. Lattice model for influenza spreading with spontaneous behavioral changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fierro, Annalisa; Liccardo, Antonella

    2013-01-01

    Individual behavioral response to the spreading of an epidemic plays a crucial role in the progression of the epidemic itself. The risk perception induces individuals to adopt a protective behavior, as for instance reducing their social contacts, adopting more restrictive hygienic measures or undergoing prophylaxis procedures. In this paper, starting with a previously developed lattice-gas SIR model, we construct a coupled behavior-disease model for influenza spreading with spontaneous behavioral changes. The focus is on self-initiated behavioral changes that alter the susceptibility to the disease, without altering the contact patterns among individuals. Three different mechanisms of awareness spreading are analyzed: the local spreading due to the presence in the neighborhood of infective individuals; the global spreading due to the news published by the mass media and to educational campaigns implemented at institutional level; the local spreading occurring through the "thought contagion" among aware and unaware individuals. The peculiarity of the present approach is that the awareness spreading model is calibrated on available data on awareness and concern of the population about the risk of contagion. In particular, the model is validated against the A(H1N1) epidemic outbreak in Italy during the 2009/2010 season, by making use of the awareness data gathered by the behavioral risk factor surveillance system (PASSI). We find that, increasing the accordance between the simulated awareness spreading and the PASSI data on risk perception, the agreement between simulated and experimental epidemiological data improves as well. Furthermore, we show that, within our model, the primary mechanism to reproduce a realistic evolution of the awareness during an epidemic, is the one due to globally available information. This result highlights how crucial is the role of mass media and educational campaigns in influencing the epidemic spreading of infectious diseases.

  18. Lattice model for influenza spreading with spontaneous behavioral changes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annalisa Fierro

    Full Text Available Individual behavioral response to the spreading of an epidemic plays a crucial role in the progression of the epidemic itself. The risk perception induces individuals to adopt a protective behavior, as for instance reducing their social contacts, adopting more restrictive hygienic measures or undergoing prophylaxis procedures. In this paper, starting with a previously developed lattice-gas SIR model, we construct a coupled behavior-disease model for influenza spreading with spontaneous behavioral changes. The focus is on self-initiated behavioral changes that alter the susceptibility to the disease, without altering the contact patterns among individuals. Three different mechanisms of awareness spreading are analyzed: the local spreading due to the presence in the neighborhood of infective individuals; the global spreading due to the news published by the mass media and to educational campaigns implemented at institutional level; the local spreading occurring through the "thought contagion" among aware and unaware individuals. The peculiarity of the present approach is that the awareness spreading model is calibrated on available data on awareness and concern of the population about the risk of contagion. In particular, the model is validated against the A(H1N1 epidemic outbreak in Italy during the 2009/2010 season, by making use of the awareness data gathered by the behavioral risk factor surveillance system (PASSI. We find that, increasing the accordance between the simulated awareness spreading and the PASSI data on risk perception, the agreement between simulated and experimental epidemiological data improves as well. Furthermore, we show that, within our model, the primary mechanism to reproduce a realistic evolution of the awareness during an epidemic, is the one due to globally available information. This result highlights how crucial is the role of mass media and educational campaigns in influencing the epidemic spreading of infectious

  19. Assessing students' communication skills: validation of a global rating.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheffer, Simone; Muehlinghaus, Isabel; Froehmel, Annette; Ortwein, Heiderose

    2008-12-01

    Communication skills training is an accepted part of undergraduate medical programs nowadays. In addition to learning experiences its importance should be emphasised by performance-based assessment. As detailed checklists have been shown to be not well suited for the assessment of communication skills for different reasons, this study aimed to validate a global rating scale. A Canadian instrument was translated to German and adapted to assess students' communication skills during an end-of-semester-OSCE. Subjects were second and third year medical students at the reformed track of the Charité-Universitaetsmedizin Berlin. Different groups of raters were trained to assess students' communication skills using the global rating scale. Validity testing included concurrent validity and construct validity: Judgements of different groups of raters were compared to expert ratings as a defined gold standard. Furthermore, the amount of agreement between scores obtained with this global rating scale and a different instrument for assessing communication skills was determined. Results show that communication skills can be validly assessed by trained non-expert raters as well as standardised patients using this instrument.

  20. The influence of low air pressure on horizontal flame spread over flexible polyurethane foam and correlative smoke productions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tu, Ran; Zeng, Yi; Fang, Jun; Zhang, Yongming

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Quasi two-dimensional flame spreading behavior of flexible polyurethane (FPU) foam was investigated. • Theoretical correlation of pressure effects on global burning rate was proposed. • The influence of pressure on plume and ceiling jet temperatures was studied theoretically. • Pressure effects on soot formation and CO concentration were analyzed. - Abstract: Pressure effects on quasi two-dimensional flexible polyurethane (FPU) foam flame spreading behavior, typical product concentrations, and smoke detector responses were investigated by comparative experiments under different ambient pressures of 99.8 kPa (in Hefei) and 66.5 kPa (in Lhasa), respectively. First, significant decreases of flame spreading velocity and burning rate were observed under low pressure condition. Averaged global burning rate was found to be dependent on pressure, with an exponential factor of 4/3 theoretically based on pressure modeling. Second, the maximum temperature at a given position in axial thermal plume showed insensitivity to pressure, yet the maximum temperature in ceiling jet was obviously higher. Third, the low pressure was shown to have no effect on soot particles size distribution by scan electron microscopy (SEM) imaging. However, the soot number concentration decreased with reduced pressure attributed to the much slower soot formation rate under low pressure. This result would further have an interesting influence on the response signals of photoelectric detector and ionization detector. Finally, the pressure effects on variation of CO and O_2 volume concentration were discussed. Considering the relatively small heat release rate for FPU foam selected, the CO concentration in the far-field ceiling jet low under low pressure was found to be lower for the enhanced diffusive effect.

  1. Terrestrial spreading centers under Venus conditions - Evaluation of a crustal spreading model for Western Aphrodite Terra

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sotin, C.; Senske, D. A.; Head, J. W.; Parmentier, E. M.

    1989-01-01

    The model of Reid and Jackson (1981) for terrestrial spreading centers is applied to Venus conditions. On the basis of spreading rate, mantle temperature, and surface temperature, the model predicts both isostatic topography and crustal thickness. The model and Pioneer Venus altimetry and gravity data are used to test the hypothesis of Head and Crumpler (1987) that Western Aphrodite Terra is the location of crustal spreading on Venus. It is concluded that a spreading center model for Ovda Regio in Western Aphrodite Terra could account for the observed topography and line-of-sight gravity anomalies found in the Pioneer data.

  2. Heat transfer and fire spread

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hal E. Anderson

    1969-01-01

    Experimental testing of a mathematical model showed that radiant heat transfer accounted for no more than 40% of total heat flux required to maintain rate of spread. A reasonable prediction of spread was possible by assuming a horizontal convective heat transfer coefficient when certain fuel and flame characteristics were known. Fuel particle size had a linear relation...

  3. Linear theory of equatorial spread F

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hudson, M.K.; Kennel, C.F.

    1975-01-01

    A fluid dispersion relation for the drift and interchange (Rayleigh-Taylor) modes in a collisional plasma forms the basis for a linear theory of equatorial spread F. The collisional drift mode growth rate will exceed the growth rate of the Rayleigh-Taylor mode at short perpendicular wavelengths and density gradient scale lengths, and the drift mode can grow on top side as well as on bottom side density gradients. However, below the F peak, where spread F predominates, it is concluded that both the drift and the Rayleigh-Taylor modes contribute to the total spread F spectrum, the Rayleigh-Taylor mode dominating at long and the drift mode at short perpendicular wavelengths above the ion Larmor radius

  4. [Globalization and infectious diseases].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirski, Tomasz; Bartoszcze, Michał; Bielawska-Drózd, Agata

    2011-01-01

    Globalization is a phenomenon characteristic of present times. It can be considered in various aspects: economic, environmental changes, demographic changes, as well as the development of new technologies. All these aspects of globalization have a definite influence on the emergence and spread of infectious diseases. Economic aspects ofglobalization are mainly the trade development, including food trade, which has an impact on the spread of food-borne diseases. The environmental changes caused by intensive development of industry, as a result of globalization, which in turn affects human health. The demographic changes are mainly people migration between countries and rural and urban areas, which essentially favors the global spread of many infectious diseases. While technological advances prevents the spread of infections, for example through better access to information, it may also increase the risk, for example through to create opportunities to travel into more world regions, including the endemic regions for various diseases. The phenomenon ofglobalization is also closely associated with the threat of terrorism, including bioterrorism. It forces the governments of many countries to develop effective programs to protect and fight against this threat.

  5. Credit Spread Modeling: Macro-financial versus HOC Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanja Dudaković

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to throw light on the relationship between credit spread changes and past changes of U.S. macro-financial variables when invariants do not have Gaussian distribution. The first part presents the empirical analysis which is based on 10-year AAA corporate bond yields and 10-year Treasury bond yields. Explanatory variables include lagged U.S. leading index, Russell 2000 returns, BBB bond price changes interest rate swaps, exchange rates EUR/ USD, Repo rates, S& P 500 returns and S&P 500 volatility, Treasury bill changes, liquidity index-TRSW, LIBOR rates, Moody’s default rates; credit spread volatility and Treasury bills volatility. The proposed dynamical model explains 73% of the U.S. credit spread variance for the period 1999:07-2013:07. The second part of the article introduces the parameter estimation method based on higher order cumulants. It is demonstrated empirically that much of the information about variability of Credit Spread can be extracted from higher order cumulant function (85%.

  6. Spread and burning behavior of continuous spill fires

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Jinlong; Huang, Hong; Jomaas, Grunde

    2017-01-01

    Spill fire experiments with continuous discharge on a fireproof glass sheet were conducted to improve the understanding of spill fire spread and burning. Ethanol was used as the fuel and the discharge rate was varied from 2.8. mL/s to 7.6. mL/s. Three ignition conditions were used...... in the experiments; no ignition, instantaneous ignition and delayed ignition. The spread rate, regression rate, penetrated thermal radiation and the temperature of the bottom glass were analyzed. The experiments clearly show the entire spread process for spill fires. Further, the regression rate of spill fires...... at the quasi-steady burning was lower than that of pool fires and the ratio of the spill fires' regression rate to the pool fires' regression rate was found to be approximately 0.89. With respect to the radiative penetration and the heat conduction between the fuel layer and the glass, a regression rate...

  7. Sovereign bonds in developing countries: Drivers of issuance and spreads

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea F. Presbitero

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In the last decade there has been a new wave of sovereign bond issuances in Africa. What determines the ability of developing countries to issue bonds in international capital and what explains the spreads on these bonds? This paper examines these questions using a dataset that includes 105 developing countries during the period 1995–2014. We find that a country is more likely to issue a bond when, in comparison with non-issuing peers, it is larger in economic size, has higher per capita GDP, a lower public debt, and a more effective government. Spreads on sovereign bonds are lower for countries with strong external and fiscal positions, as well as robust economic growth and government effectiveness. We also find that primary spreads for the average Sub-Saharan African issuer are higher than in other regions. With regard to global factors, our results confirm the existing evidence that issuances are more likely during periods of global liquidity and high commodity prices, especially for Sub-Saharan African countries, and spreads are higher in periods of higher market volatility.

  8. Reliability and Efficiency of Generalized Rumor Spreading Model on Complex Social Networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naimi, Yaghoob; Naimi, Mohammad

    2013-01-01

    We introduce the generalized rumor spreading model and investigate some properties of this model on different complex social networks. Despite pervious rumor models that both the spreader-spreader (SS) and the spreader-stifler (SR) interactions have the same rate α, we define α (1) and α (2) for SS and SR interactions, respectively. The effect of variation of α (1) and α (2) on the final density of stiflers is investigated. Furthermore, the influence of the topological structure of the network in rumor spreading is studied by analyzing the behavior of several global parameters such as reliability and efficiency. Our results show that while networks with homogeneous connectivity patterns reach a higher reliability, scale-free topologies need a less time to reach a steady state with respect the rumor. (interdisciplinary physics and related areas of science and technology)

  9. Linking climate suitability, spread rates and host-impact when estimating the potential costs of invasive pests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kriticos, Darren J; Leriche, Agathe; Palmer, David J; Cook, David C; Brockerhoff, Eckehard G; Stephens, Andréa E A; Watt, Michael S

    2013-01-01

    Biosecurity agencies need robust bioeconomic tools to help inform policy and allocate scarce management resources. They need to estimate the potential for each invasive alien species (IAS) to create negative impacts, so that relative and absolute comparisons can be made. Using pine processionary moth (Thaumetopoea pityocampa sensu lato) as an example, these needs were met by combining species niche modelling, dispersal modelling, host impact and economic modelling. Within its native range (the Mediterranean Basin and adjacent areas), T. pityocampa causes significant defoliation of pines and serious urticating injuries to humans. Such severe impacts overseas have fuelled concerns about its potential impacts, should it be introduced to New Zealand. A stochastic bioeconomic model was used to estimate the impact of PPM invasion in terms of pine production value lost due to a hypothetical invasion of New Zealand by T. pityocampa. The bioeconomic model combines a semi-mechanistic niche model to develop a climate-related damage function, a climate-related forest growth model, and a stochastic spread model to estimate the present value (PV) of an invasion. Simulated invasions indicate that Thaumetopoea pityocampa could reduce New Zealand's merchantable and total pine stem volume production by 30%, reducing forest production by between NZ$1,550 M to NZ$2,560 M if left untreated. Where T. pityocampa is controlled using aerial application of an insecticide, projected losses in PV were reduced, but still significant (NZ$30 M to NZ$2,210 M). The PV estimates were more sensitive to the efficacy of the spray program than the potential rate of spread of the moth. Our novel bioeconomic method provides a refined means of estimating potential impacts of invasive alien species, taking into account climatic effects on asset values, the potential for pest impacts, and pest spread rates.

  10. Linking climate suitability, spread rates and host-impact when estimating the potential costs of invasive pests.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darren J Kriticos

    Full Text Available Biosecurity agencies need robust bioeconomic tools to help inform policy and allocate scarce management resources. They need to estimate the potential for each invasive alien species (IAS to create negative impacts, so that relative and absolute comparisons can be made. Using pine processionary moth (Thaumetopoea pityocampa sensu lato as an example, these needs were met by combining species niche modelling, dispersal modelling, host impact and economic modelling. Within its native range (the Mediterranean Basin and adjacent areas, T. pityocampa causes significant defoliation of pines and serious urticating injuries to humans. Such severe impacts overseas have fuelled concerns about its potential impacts, should it be introduced to New Zealand. A stochastic bioeconomic model was used to estimate the impact of PPM invasion in terms of pine production value lost due to a hypothetical invasion of New Zealand by T. pityocampa. The bioeconomic model combines a semi-mechanistic niche model to develop a climate-related damage function, a climate-related forest growth model, and a stochastic spread model to estimate the present value (PV of an invasion. Simulated invasions indicate that Thaumetopoea pityocampa could reduce New Zealand's merchantable and total pine stem volume production by 30%, reducing forest production by between NZ$1,550 M to NZ$2,560 M if left untreated. Where T. pityocampa is controlled using aerial application of an insecticide, projected losses in PV were reduced, but still significant (NZ$30 M to NZ$2,210 M. The PV estimates were more sensitive to the efficacy of the spray program than the potential rate of spread of the moth. Our novel bioeconomic method provides a refined means of estimating potential impacts of invasive alien species, taking into account climatic effects on asset values, the potential for pest impacts, and pest spread rates.

  11. Climate impact on spreading of airborne infectious diseases. Complex network based modeling of climate influences on influenza like illnesses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brenner, Frank; Marwan, Norbert; Hoffmann, Peter

    2017-06-01

    In this study we combined a wide range of data sets to simulate the outbreak of an airborne infectious disease that is directly transmitted from human to human. The basis is a complex network whose structures are inspired by global air traffic data (from openflights.org) containing information about airports, airport locations, direct flight connections and airplane types. Disease spreading inside every node is realized with a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) compartmental model. Disease transmission rates in our model are depending on the climate environment and therefore vary in time and from node to node. To implement the correlation between water vapor pressure and influenza transmission rate [J. Shaman, M. Kohn, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 106, 3243 (2009)], we use global available climate reanalysis data (WATCH-Forcing-Data-ERA-Interim, WFDEI). During our sensitivity analysis we found that disease spreading dynamics are strongly depending on network properties, the climatic environment of the epidemic outbreak location, and the season during the year in which the outbreak is happening.

  12. Bit Error Rate Performance of a MIMO-CDMA System Employing Parity-Bit-Selected Spreading in Frequency Nonselective Rayleigh Fading

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claude D'Amours

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We analytically derive the upper bound for the bit error rate (BER performance of a single user multiple input multiple output code division multiple access (MIMO-CDMA system employing parity-bit-selected spreading in slowly varying, flat Rayleigh fading. The analysis is done for spatially uncorrelated links. The analysis presented demonstrates that parity-bit-selected spreading provides an asymptotic gain of 10log(Nt dB over conventional MIMO-CDMA when the receiver has perfect channel estimates. This analytical result concurs with previous works where the (BER is determined by simulation methods and provides insight into why the different techniques provide improvement over conventional MIMO-CDMA systems.

  13. Redefinition and global estimation of basal ecosystem respiration rate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yuan, Wenping; Luo, Yiqi; Li, Xianglan

    2011-01-01

    Basal ecosystem respiration rate (BR), the ecosystem respiration rate at a given temperature, is a common and important parameter in empirical models for quantifying ecosystem respiration (ER) globally. Numerous studies have indicated that BR varies in space. However, many empirical ER models sti...

  14. Mind the rate. Why rate global climate change matters, and how much

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ambrosi, Ph.

    2006-01-01

    To assess climate policies in a cost-efficiency framework with constraints on the magnitude and rate of global climate change we have built RESPONSE, an optimal control integrated assessment model. Our results show that the uncertainty about climate sensitivity leads to significant short-term mitigation efforts all the more as the arrival of information regarding this parameter is belated. There exists thus a high opportunity cost to know before 2030 the true value of this parameter, which is not totally granted so far. Given this uncertainty, a +2 deg C objective could lead to rather stringent policy recommendations for the coming decades and might prove unacceptable. Furthermore, the uncertainty about climate sensitivity magnifies the influence of the rate constraint on short-term decision, leading to rather stringent policy recommendations for the coming decades. This result is particularly robust to the choice of discount rate and to the beliefs of the decision-maker about climate sensitivity. We finally show that the uncertainty about the rate constraint is even more important for short-term decision than the uncertainty about climate sensitivity or magnitude of warming. This means that the critical rate of climate change, i.e. a transient characteristic of climate risks, matters much more than the long-term objective of climate policy, i.e. the critical magnitude of climate change. Therefore, research should be aimed at better characterising climate change risks in view to help decision-makers in agreeing on a safe guardrail to limit the rate of global warming. (author)

  15. Colonic motility and enema spreading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hardy, J.G.; Wood, E.; Clark, A.G.; Reynolds, J.R.; Queen's Medical Centre, Nottingham

    1986-01-01

    Radiolabelled enema solution was administered to eight healthy subjects, both in fasted and fed states. Enema spreading was monitored over a 4-h period using gamma scintigraphy and colonic motility was recorded simultaneously using a pressure sensitive radiotelemetry capsule. The rate and extent of enema dispersion were unaffected by eating. Spreading could be correlated with colonic motility and was inhibited by aboral propulsion of the colonic contents. (orig.)

  16. Nuclear Power Learning and Deployment Rates; Disruption and Global Benefits Forgone

    OpenAIRE

    Peter A. Lang

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents evidence of the disruption of a transition from fossil fuels to nuclear power, and finds the benefits forgone as a consequence are substantial. Learning rates are presented for nuclear power in seven countries, comprising 58% of all power reactors ever built globally. Learning rates and deployment rates changed in the late-1960s and 1970s from rapidly falling costs and accelerating deployment to rapidly rising costs and stalled deployment. Historical nuclear global capacit...

  17. The rate of rise, fall and gravity spreading at Siahou diapir (Southern Iran)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aftabi, P.; Roustaie, M.

    2009-04-01

    InSAR imaging can be used for extracting three dimensional information of the diapirs surface by using the phase part of the radar signal. We used InSAR to examine the cumulative surface deformation between 920706 to 060518, in a 10×10 km region surrounding the salt diapir at Kuh-e-Namak Siahou. The interferograms span periods was between 35-70 and 1248 days. Images acquired in 12 increments provided by ESA. This technique used here involves computation and subsequent combinations of interferometric phase gradient maps were used for mapping the salt flow deformation in the Zagros. Kuh-e-Namak Siahou is one of the salt extrusions currently active in the Zagros range in Iran. Salt rises from a mother salt horizon about 4 km deep and extruded as a dome with glacier on the surface. The geometry and inferred flow pattern of the salt changed between the increments, emphasizing that the extrusion rate and gravity spreading is not steady. Elevations in the salt mountain range from 1000 to 1640 meters and the displacements exceed to 20cm per year . Our InSAR study(Fig1) suggest that the dimensions and velocity of the salt movements are changing between 2 to 20mm per year(-0.7 to0.59 mm per day).The rate of surface dissolution changed between 2 to 4 cm a-1, and its rate of rise out of its orifice at 0 to 200 mm per year. The InSAR study suggest that the vigorous salt extrusion in Siahou is probably active.The deep source probably rise at a similar rates in the past but it fall in the time of InSAR study. The rate of fall was 260 mm per year(for 14 years). The InSAR images suggest that salt extrusion in Siahou flow laterally at rate 20-25 mm per year and the namakiers felt at -2 mm per month. The InSAR results indicated concentric and radial flow in the diapir from a central point at summit and spreading glaciers in sideways.Phase differences measured in our interferograms generally in the range of 0-260 mm/yr(-260 mm) within the studied period, with exceptional high rates

  18. Seasonal variations of equatorial spread-F

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. V. Krishna Murthy

    Full Text Available The occurrence of spread-F at Trivandrum (8.5°N, 77°E, dip 0.5°N has been investigated on a seasonal basis in sunspot maximum and minimum years in terms of the growth rate of irregularities by the generalized collisional Rayleigh-Taylor (GRT instability mechanism which includes the gravitational and cross-field instability terms. The occurrence statistics of spread-F at Trivandrum have been obtained using quarter hourly ionograms. The nocturnal variations of the growth rate of irregularities by the GRT mechanism have been estimated for different seasons in sunspot maximum and minimum years at Trivandrum using h'F values and vertical drift velocities obtained from ionograms. It is found that the seasonal variation of spread-F occurrence at Trivandrum can, in general, be accounted for on the basis of the GRT mechanism.

  19. Seasonal variations of equatorial spread-F

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. S. V. Subbarao

    1994-01-01

    Full Text Available The occurrence of spread-F at Trivandrum (8.5°N, 77°E, dip 0.5°N has been investigated on a seasonal basis in sunspot maximum and minimum years in terms of the growth rate of irregularities by the generalized collisional Rayleigh-Taylor (GRT instability mechanism which includes the gravitational and cross-field instability terms. The occurrence statistics of spread-F at Trivandrum have been obtained using quarter hourly ionograms. The nocturnal variations of the growth rate of irregularities by the GRT mechanism have been estimated for different seasons in sunspot maximum and minimum years at Trivandrum using h'F values and vertical drift velocities obtained from ionograms. It is found that the seasonal variation of spread-F occurrence at Trivandrum can, in general, be accounted for on the basis of the GRT mechanism.

  20. The GLEaMviz computational tool, a publicly available software to explore realistic epidemic spreading scenarios at the global scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Quaggiotto Marco

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Computational models play an increasingly important role in the assessment and control of public health crises, as demonstrated during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Much research has been done in recent years in the development of sophisticated data-driven models for realistic computer-based simulations of infectious disease spreading. However, only a few computational tools are presently available for assessing scenarios, predicting epidemic evolutions, and managing health emergencies that can benefit a broad audience of users including policy makers and health institutions. Results We present "GLEaMviz", a publicly available software system that simulates the spread of emerging human-to-human infectious diseases across the world. The GLEaMviz tool comprises three components: the client application, the proxy middleware, and the simulation engine. The latter two components constitute the GLEaMviz server. The simulation engine leverages on the Global Epidemic and Mobility (GLEaM framework, a stochastic computational scheme that integrates worldwide high-resolution demographic and mobility data to simulate disease spread on the global scale. The GLEaMviz design aims at maximizing flexibility in defining the disease compartmental model and configuring the simulation scenario; it allows the user to set a variety of parameters including: compartment-specific features, transition values, and environmental effects. The output is a dynamic map and a corresponding set of charts that quantitatively describe the geo-temporal evolution of the disease. The software is designed as a client-server system. The multi-platform client, which can be installed on the user's local machine, is used to set up simulations that will be executed on the server, thus avoiding specific requirements for large computational capabilities on the user side. Conclusions The user-friendly graphical interface of the GLEaMviz tool, along with its high level

  1. Spread of carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii global clone 2 in Asia and AbaR-type resistance islands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Dae Hun; Choi, Ji-Young; Kim, Hae Won; Kim, So Hyun; Chung, Doo Ryeon; Peck, Kyong Ran; Thamlikitkul, Visanu; So, Thomas Man-Kit; Yasin, Rohani M D; Hsueh, Po-Ren; Carlos, Celia C; Hsu, Li Yang; Buntaran, Latre; Lalitha, M K; Song, Jae-Hoon; Ko, Kwan Soo

    2013-11-01

    In this surveillance study, we identified the genotypes, carbapenem resistance determinants, and structural variations of AbaR-type resistance islands among carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii (CRAB) isolates from nine Asian locales. Clonal complex 92 (CC92), corresponding to global clone 2 (GC2), was the most prevalent in most Asian locales (83/108 isolates; 76.9%). CC108, or GC1, was a predominant clone in India. OXA-23 oxacillinase was detected in CRAB isolates from most Asian locales except Taiwan. blaOXA-24 was found in CRAB isolates from Taiwan. AbaR4-type resistance islands, which were divided into six subtypes, were identified in most CRAB isolates investigated. Five isolates from India, Malaysia, Singapore, and Hong Kong contained AbaR3-type resistance islands. Of these, three isolates harbored both AbaR3- and AbaR4-type resistance islands simultaneously. In this study, GC2 was revealed as a prevalent clone in most Asian locales, with the AbaR4-type resistance island predominant, with diverse variants. The significance of this study lies in identifying the spread of global clones of carbapenem-resistant A. baumannii in Asia.

  2. No Evidence that Infection Alters Global Recombination Rate in House Mice.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beth L Dumont

    Full Text Available Recombination rate is a complex trait, with genetic and environmental factors shaping observed patterns of variation. Although recent studies have begun to unravel the genetic basis of recombination rate differences between organisms, less attention has focused on the environmental determinants of crossover rates. Here, we test the effect of one ubiquitous environmental pressure-bacterial infection-on global recombination frequency in mammals. We applied MLH1 mapping to assay global crossover rates in male mice infected with the pathogenic bacterium Borrelia burgdorferi, the causative agent of Lyme Disease, and uninfected control animals. Despite ample statistical power to identify biologically relevant differences between infected and uninfected animals, we find no evidence for a global recombination rate response to bacterial infection. Moreover, broad-scale patterns of crossover distribution, including the number of achiasmate bivalents, are not affected by infection status. Although pathogen exposure can plastically increase recombination in some species, our findings suggest that recombination rates in house mice may be resilient to at least some forms of infection stress. This negative result motivates future experiments with alternative house mouse pathogens to evaluate the generality of this conclusion.

  3. A qualitative comparison of fire spread models incorporating wind and slope effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    David R. Weise; Gregory S. Biging

    1997-01-01

    Wind velocity and slope are two critical variables that affect wildland fire rate of spread. The effects of these variables on rate of spread are often combined in rate-of-spread models using vector addition. The various methods used to combine wind and slope effects have seldom been validated or compared due to differences in the models or to lack of data. In this...

  4. Impact of international and local conditions on sovereign bond spreads: International evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Selma Izadi

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the effect of international and domestic factors on the sovereign bond spreads for 22 developed countries in North America, Europe and Pacific Rim regions. First, for all the regions the impact of global factors on the sovereign bond spreads is more intense than regional factors. Second, the findings confirm that for the bond spreads of each region over its domestic government bonds, the countries’ local fundamentals are better determinants of the spreads compared to the spread over US government bonds as a safe haven. Third, the influence of worldwide factors in the Eurozone compared to other regions bond spreads is less. Fourth, the relationship of the market sentiment and the investor risk aversion with the sovereign bond spreads of all regions is positive. Equity market volatility plays significant role in yield speads in international bond markets.

  5. Turbulent forces within river plumes affect spread

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharya, Atreyee

    2012-08-01

    When rivers drain into oceans through narrow mouths, hydraulic forces squeeze the river water into buoyant plumes that are clearly visible in satellite images. Worldwide, river plumes not only disperse freshwater, sediments, and nutrients but also spread pollutants and organisms from estuaries into the open ocean. In the United States, the Columbia River—the largest river by volume draining into the Pacific Ocean from North America—generates a plume at its mouth that transports juvenile salmon and other fish into the ocean. Clearly, the behavior and spread of river plumes, such as the Columbia River plume, affect the nation's fishing industry as well as the global economy.

  6. Should Global Items on Student Rating Scales Be Used for Summative Decisions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berk, Ronald A.

    2013-01-01

    One of the simplest indicators of teaching or course effectiveness is student ratings on one or more global items from the entire rating scale. That approach seems intuitively sound and easy to use. Global items have even been recommended by a few researchers to get a quick-read, at-a-glance summary for summative decisions about faculty. The…

  7. Astronomical calibration of the Ypresian timescale: implications for seafloor spreading rates and the chaotic behavior of the solar system?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Westerhold

    2017-09-01

    magnetostratigraphy provide robust ages and durations for Chrons C21n to C24n (47–54 Ma, revealing a major change in spreading rates in the interval from 51.0 to 52.5 Ma. This major change in spreading rates is synchronous with a global reorganization of the plate–mantle system and the chaotic diffusion of the planetary orbits. The newly provided YATS also includes new absolute ages for biostratigraphic events, magnetic polarity reversals, and early Eocene hyperthermal events. Our new bio- and magnetostratigraphically calibrated stable isotope compilation may act as a reference for further paleoclimate studies of the Ypresian, which is of special interest because of the outgoing warming and increasingly cooling phase. Finally, our approach of integrating the complex comprehensive data sets unearths some challenges and uncertainties but also validates the high potential of chemostratigraphy, magnetostratigraphy, and biostratigraphy in unprecedented detail being most significant for an accurate chronostratigraphy.

  8. On the global distribution of hydrothermal vent fields: One decade later

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaulieu, S. E.; Baker, E. T.; German, C. R.

    2012-12-01

    Since the last global compilation one decade ago, the known number of active submarine hydrothermal vent fields has almost doubled. At the end of 2009, a total of 518 active vent fields was catalogued, with about half (245) visually confirmed and others (273) inferred active at the seafloor. About half (52%) of these vent fields are at mid-ocean ridges (MORs), 25% at volcanic arcs, 21% at back-arc spreading centers (BASCs), and 2% at intra-plate volcanoes and other settings. One third are in high seas, and the nations with the most known active vent fields within EEZs are Tonga, USA, Japan, and New Zealand. The increase in known vent fields reflects a number of factors, including increased national and commercial interests in seafloor hydrothermal deposits as mineral resources. Here, we have comprehensively documented the percentage of strike length at MORs and BASCs that has been systematically explored for hydrothermal activity. As of the end of 2009, almost 30% of the ~60,000 km of MORs had been surveyed at least with spaced vertical profiles to detect hydrothermal plumes. A majority of the vents discovered at MORs in the past decade occurred at segments with vs. weighted-average full spreading rate (u_s), we predicted 676 vent fields remaining to be discovered at MORs. Even accounting for the lower F_s at slower spreading rates, almost half of the vents that are predicted remaining to be discovered at MORs are at ultra-slow to slow spreading rates (explored tend to be at high latitudes, such as the ultra-slow to slow spreading Arctic MORs (e.g., Kolbeinsey and Mohns Ridges), the ultra-slow American-Antarctic Ridge, and the intermediate spreading Pacific-Antarctic Ridge. Although a greater percentage of the ~11,000 km of BASCs has been surveyed for hydrothermal activity, the discoveries at BASCs in the past decade were mainly at segments with intermediate to fast spreading rates. Using the same equation for F_s vs. u_s, we predicted 71 vent fields remaining to

  9. How heterogeneous susceptibility and recovery rates affect the spread of epidemics on networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Gou

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, an extended heterogeneous SIR model is proposed, which generalizes the heterogeneous mean-field theory. Different from the traditional heterogeneous mean-field model only taking into account the heterogeneity of degree, our model considers not only the heterogeneity of degree but also the heterogeneity of susceptibility and recovery rates. Then, we analytically study the basic reproductive number and the final epidemic size. Combining with numerical simulations, it is found that the basic reproductive number depends on the mean of distributions of susceptibility and disease course when both of them are independent. If the mean of these two distributions is identical, increasing the variance of susceptibility may block the spread of epidemics, while the corresponding increase in the variance of disease course has little effect on the final epidemic size. It is also shown that positive correlations between individual susceptibility, course of disease and the square of degree make the population more vulnerable to epidemic and avail to the epidemic prevalence, whereas the negative correlations make the population less vulnerable and impede the epidemic prevalence. Keywords: Networks, Heterogeneity, Susceptibility, Recovery rates, Correlation, The basic reproductive number, The final epidemic size

  10. Role of Atmospheric Cloud Radiative Effects in the Intermodal Spread in the Shift of Southern Hemispheric Eddy-driven Jet in Responses to Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Y.; Thompson, D. W. J.; Bony, S.

    2017-12-01

    Observations and most climate models suggest storm track and extratropical eddy driven jet shifts poleward in a warmer climate, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. However, the magnitude of such shifts remains uncertain. Even for a prescribed uniform SST changes, models produce large inter-model spread in the magnitude of jet shift, suggesting that a substantial part of these uncertainties are caused by the impact of cloud radiative effects on the atmospheric heating rate per se. In this study we will investigate 1) how much do clouds contribute to the spread of the circulation response in the absence of SST coupling? 2) how much do clouds contribute to the spread of the direct CO2 and SST-only response?

  11. 78 FR 1277 - International Product Change-Global Expedited Package Services-Non-Published Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-08

    ... POSTAL SERVICE International Product Change--Global Expedited Package Services-- Non-Published...-- Non-Published Rates 4 (GEPS-NPR 4) to the Competitive Products List. DATES: Effective date: January 8... add Global Expedited Package Services-- Non-Published Rates 4 (GEPS-NPR 4) to the Competitive Products...

  12. Global Delivery Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manning, Stephan; Larsen, Marcus M.; Bharati, Pratyush

    2013-01-01

    This article examines antecedents and performance implications of global delivery models (GDMs) in global business services. GDMs require geographically distributed operations to exploit both proximity to clients and time-zone spread for efficient service delivery. We propose and empirically show...

  13. Tectonic microplates in a wax model of sea-floor spreading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Katz, Richard F; Ragnarsson, Rolf; Bodenschatz, Eberhard

    2005-01-01

    Rotating, growing microplates are observed in a wax analogue model of sea-floor spreading. Wax microplates are kinematically similar to sea-floor tectonic microplates in terms of spreading rate and growth rate. Furthermore, their spiral pseudofault geometry is quantitatively consistent with Schouten's oceanic microplate model. These results suggest that Schouten's edge-driven microplate model captures the kinematics of tectonic microplate evolution on Earth. Based on the wax observations, a theory for the nucleation of overlapping spreading centres, the precursors of tectonic microplates, is developed

  14. Effects of raising US interest rates on global FX markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kožul Nataša

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Following the global financial crisis of 2008, many countries decreased their domestic interest rates as a means of stimulating economic growth, while also providing protection from substantial default on debt. Low interest rates reduce the incentive to save, prompting consumers to purchase assets, such as housing, thus implicitly increasing wealth. In addition, they make the currency relatively cheaper, making exports more competitive, while reducing foreign demand for holding debt in that currency. All these should stimulate economy, albeit at the cost of reduced competitiveness in the world financial markets, where return on investment is largely determined by the interest rates. Low interest rates also prompt greater borrowing, which may not be sustainable once they start to rise. In addition, those that largely depend on interest rate income may seek more speculative and high-risk investments, potentially leading to significant defaults. Finally, as the market interest rate is composed of the real rate and inflation, decreasing rates changes the balance in this relationship, which may lead to inflationary economy. Now that the US has increased its domestic rates for the first time since 2006, it is important to examine the potential effects this will have on global markets and other economies. This paper offers some insights into the dynamics of the FX markets and discusses why the US rate is so closely watched worldwide.

  15. Marine denitrification rates determined from a global 3-D inverse model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. DeVries

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available A major impediment to understanding long-term changes in the marine nitrogen (N cycle is the persistent uncertainty about the rates, distribution, and sensitivity of its largest fluxes in the modern ocean. We use a global ocean circulation model to obtain the first 3-D estimate of marine denitrification rates that is maximally consistent with available observations of nitrate deficits and the nitrogen isotopic ratio of oceanic nitrate. We find a global rate of marine denitrification in suboxic waters and sediments of 120–240 Tg N yr−1, which is lower than many other recent estimates. The difference stems from the ability to represent the 3-D spatial structure of suboxic zones, where denitrification rates of 50–77 Tg N yr−1 result in up to 50% depletion of nitrate. This depletion reduces the effect of local isotopic enrichment on the rest of the ocean, allowing the N isotope ratio of oceanic nitrate to be achieved with a sedimentary denitrification rate about 1.3–2.3 times that of suboxic zones. This balance of N losses between sediments and suboxic zones is shown to obey a simple relationship between isotope fractionation and the degree of nitrate consumption in the core of the suboxic zones. The global denitrification rates derived here suggest that the marine nitrogen budget is likely close to balanced.

  16. Near limit flame spread over thick fuels in a concurrent forced flow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Di Blasi, C.; Crescitelli, S.; Russo, G.

    1988-01-01

    The influence of the ambient level of oxygen concentration on the flow assisted flame spread over thick solid fuels and the extinction of the fame is studied by means of numerical modeling. The pyrolysis spread rate decreases with the oxygen concentration, showing qualitative agreement with experimental data. In fact, as the oxygen level decreases, the flame temperature decreases, causing lower heat fluxes at the fuel surfaces and lower pyrolysis mass rates so that the spread process is slowed. The effects due to finite kinetics are of increasing importance as extinction is approached. These effects appear mainly at the upstream flame leading edge, where the extinction length (distance of the flame leading edge from the edge of the fuel slab) increases. However, the spread process continues, that is, the flame and pyrolysis lengths increase with time, until the pyrolysis spread rate is greater than the upstream extinction rate. Complete extinction occurs when the extinction distance extends to the position of the pyrolysis front

  17. FACTORS INFLUENCING YIELD SPREADS OF THE MALAYSIAN BONDS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Norliza Ahmad

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Malaysian bond market is developing rapidly but not much is understood in terms of macroeconomic factors that could influence the yield spread of the Ringgit Malaysian denominated bonds. Based on a multifactor model, this paper examines the impact of four macroeconomic factors namely: Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI, Industry Production Index (IPI, Consumer Price Index (CPI and interest rates (IR on bond yield spread of the Malaysian Government Securities (MGS and Corporate Bonds (CBs for a period from January 2001 to December 2008. The findings support the expected hypotheses that CPI and IR are the major drivers that influence the changes in MGS yield spreads. However IPI and KLCI have weak and no influence on MGS yield spreads respectively Whilst IR, CPI and IPI have significant influence on the yield spreads of CB1, CB2 and CB3, KLCI has significant influence only on the CB1 yield spread but not on CB2 and CB3 yield spreads.

  18. Assessment of thema code against spreading experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spindler, B.; Veteau, J.M.; Cecco, L. de; Montanelli, P.; Pineau, D.

    2000-01-01

    In the frame work of severe accident research, the spreading code THEMA, developed at CEA/DRN, aims at predicting the spreading extent of molten core after a vessel melt-through. The code solves fluid balance equations integrated over the fluid depth for oxidic and/or metallic phases under the shallow water assumption, using a finite difference scheme. Solidification is taken into account through crust formation on the substrate and at contact with the surroundings, as well as increase of fluid viscosity with solid fraction in the melt. A separate energy equation is solved for the solid substrate, including possible ablation. The assessment of THEMA code against the spreading experiments performed in the framework of the corium spreading and coolability project of the European Union is presented. These experiments use either simulating materials at medium (RIT), or at high temperature (KATS), or corium (VULCANO, FARO), conducted at different mass flow rates and with large or low solidification interval. THEMA appears to be able to simulate the whole set of the experiments investigated. Comparison between experimental and computed spreading lengths and substrate temperatures are quite satisfactory. The results show a rather large sensitivity at mass flow rate and inlet temperature, indicating that, generally, efforts should be made to improve the accuracy of the measurements of such parameters in the experiments. (orig.)

  19. Global Governance Mechanisms to Address Antimicrobial Resistance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padiyara, Ponnu; Inoue, Hajime; Sprenger, Marc

    2018-01-01

    Since their discovery, antibiotics, and more broadly, antimicrobials, have been a cornerstone of modern medicine. But the overuse and misuse of these drugs have led to rising rates of antimicrobial resistance, which occurs when bacteria adapt in ways that render antibiotics ineffective. A world without effective antibiotics can have drastic impacts on population health, global development, and the global economy. As a global common good, antibiotic effectiveness is vulnerable to the tragedy of the commons, where a shared limited resource is overused by a community when each individual exploits the finite resource for their own benefit. A borderless threat like antimicrobial resistance requires global governance mechanisms to mitigate its emergence and spread, and it is the responsibility of all countries and relevant multilateral organizations. These mechanisms can be in the form of legally binding global governance mechanisms such as treaties and regulatory standards or nonbinding mechanisms such as political declarations, resolutions, or guidelines. In this article, we argue that while both are effective methods, the strong, swift, and coordinated action needed to address rising rates of antimicrobial resistance will be better served through legally binding governance mechanisms.

  20. Estimate of the global-scale joule heating rates in the thermosphere due to time mean currents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roble, R.G.; Matsushita, S.

    1975-01-01

    An estimate of the global-scale joule heating rates in the thermosphere is made based on derived global equivalent overhead electric current systems in the dynamo region during geomagnetically quiet and disturbed periods. The equivalent total electric field distribution is calculated from Ohm's law. The global-scale joule heating rates are calculated for various monthly average periods in 1965. The calculated joule heating rates maximize at high latitudes in the early evening and postmidnight sectors. During geomagnetically quiet times the daytime joule heating rates are considerably lower than heating by solar EUV radiation. However, during geomagnetically disturbed periods the estimated joule heating rates increase by an order of magnitude and can locally exceed the solar EUV heating rates. The results show that joule heating is an important and at times the dominant energy source at high latitudes. However, the global mean joule heating rates calculated near solar minimum are generally small compared to the global mean solar EUV heating rates. (auth)

  1. Avian Influenza spread and transmission dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourouiba, Lydia; Gourley, Stephen A.; Liu, Rongsong; Takekawa, John Y.; Wu, Jianhong; Chen, Dongmei; Moulin, Bernard; Wu, Jianhong

    2015-01-01

    The spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses of type A of subtype H5N1 has been a serious threat to global public health. Understanding the roles of various (migratory, wild, poultry) bird species in the transmission of these viruses is critical for designing and implementing effective control and intervention measures. Developing appropriate models and mathematical techniques to understand these roles and to evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation strategies have been a challenge. Recent development of the global health surveillance (especially satellite tracking and GIS techniques) and the mathematical theory of dynamical systems combined have gradually shown the promise of some cutting-edge methodologies and techniques in mathematical biology to meet this challenge.

  2. Trends in spread of the particle therapy of cancers to areal bases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abe, Mitsuyuki; Aoki, Takashi; Tsujii, Hirohiko

    2009-01-01

    In Japan, the rate of cancer death accounts for 30%, now there are 8 facilities having the cancer particle therapy (PT) which is promising due to its highly effective, short term, non-surgical, not always expensive treatment, and local areas have tended to construct such facility for their people. This special article describes trends in the title concerning the areal intention for setting up the therapeutic bases, global trend of PT, research and development in manufacturers of PT equipments, and response of health insurer to the trend. The article contains following 15 topics presented by 15 authors or groups of the academia, official and company institutes, prefectural officers, manufacturers and an insurer, and by Editorial. Topics are: Significance and future view of PT in cancer treatment; Present state of construction of PT facilities in various areas; Fifteen year-results of PT in near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) and its effort to spread the therapy; Gumma University's 21st century program COE (Center of Excellence), Medical and Biological Studies with Accelerator Technology; Project for constructing Fukui Prefectural Proton PT Center; The role of Proton PT Center in southern Tohoku area as the first private facility; PT center by Foundation of Medipolis Medical Research Institute in southern Kyushu area; Global trend of PT; Spread of PT and the role of health insurance in it/Mitsui-Sumitomo's health insurance, Kirameki, the contribution to general public; Mitsubishi Electric Corp.'s effort to spread PT equipments; Toshiba's effort; Hitachi's effort; Sumitomo Heavy Industries' effort; Effort by Chiyoda Technol Corp. and Still River Systems to develop the next generation superconducting PT equipment; and Overview by Editorial/Complicated trend in invitation and construction of PT facilities. (K.T.)

  3. Credit ratings and the pricing of sovereign debt during the euro crisis

    OpenAIRE

    Joshua Aizenman; Mahir Binici; Michael Hutchison

    2013-01-01

    This paper investigates the impact of credit rating changes on the sovereign spreads in the European Union and investigates the macro and financial factors that account for the time-varying effects of a given credit rating change. We find that changes of ratings are informative, economically important, and highly statistically significant in panel models, even after controlling for a host of domestic and global fundamental factors and investigating various functional forms, time and country g...

  4. The spread and effect of HIV-1 infection in sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buvé, Anne; Bishikwabo-Nsarhaza, Kizito; Mutangadura, Gladys

    2002-06-08

    Africa is the continent most severely affected by the global HIV-1 epidemic, with east and southern Africa in general more severely affected than west and central Africa. Differences in the spread of the epidemic can be accounted for by a complex interplay of sexual behaviour and biological factors that affect the probability of HIV-1 transmission per sex act. Sexual behaviour patterns are determined by cultural and socioeconomic contexts. In sub-Saharan Africa, some traditions and socioeconomic developments have contributed to the extensive spread of HIV-1 infection, including the subordinate position of women, impoverishment and decline of social services, rapid urbanisation and modernisation, and wars and conflicts. Populations in many parts of Africa are becoming trapped in a vicious circle as the HIV-1 epidemic leads to high mortality rates in young and economically productive age groups, and thus leads to further impoverishment. Interventions to control HIV-1 should not only target individuals, but also aim to change those aspects of cultural and socioeconomic context that increase the vulnerability to HIV-1 of people and communities.

  5. Effects of rewiring strategies on information spreading in complex dynamic networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ally, Abdulla F.; Zhang, Ning

    2018-04-01

    Recent advances in networks and communication services have attracted much interest to understand information spreading in social networks. Consequently, numerous studies have been devoted to provide effective and accurate models for mimicking information spreading. However, knowledge on how to spread information faster and more widely remains a contentious issue. Yet, most existing works are based on static networks which limit the reality of dynamism of entities that participate in information spreading. Using the SIR epidemic model, this study explores and compares effects of two rewiring models (Fermi-Dirac and Linear functions) on information spreading in scale free and small world networks. Our results show that for all the rewiring strategies, the spreading influence replenishes with time but stabilizes in a steady state at later time-steps. This means that information spreading takes-off during the initial spreading steps, after which the spreading prevalence settles toward its equilibrium, with majority of the population having recovered and thus, no longer affecting the spreading. Meanwhile, rewiring strategy based on Fermi-Dirac distribution function in one way or another impedes the spreading process, however, the structure of the networks mimic the spreading, even with a low spreading rate. The worst case can be when the spreading rate is extremely small. The results emphasize that despite a big role of such networks in mimicking the spreading, the role of the parameters cannot be simply ignored. Apparently, the probability of giant degree neighbors being informed grows much faster with the rewiring strategy of linear function compared to that of Fermi-Dirac distribution function. Clearly, rewiring model based on linear function generates the fastest spreading across the networks. Therefore, if we are interested in speeding up the spreading process in stochastic modeling, linear function may play a pivotal role.

  6. The rate of spread of sheep scab within small groups of Merino and Dorper sheep : short communication

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Meintjies

    2002-07-01

    Full Text Available A single Merino sheep, artificially infested with the sheep scab mite, Psoroptes ovis, and a similarly infested Dorper sheep were placed with 9 uninfested Merino or 9 uninfested Dorper sheep respectively during winter and the rate of spread of infestation on the uninfested sheep observed. The same procedure was repeated in summer. It took 14 and 8 weeks respectively in winter before all sheep in the 2 groups displayed lesions of sheep scab, whereas in summer it took 10 and 12 weeks before all sheep had lesions.

  7. Flame spread along thermally thick horizontal rods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higuera, F. J.

    2002-06-01

    An analysis is carried out of the spread of a flame along a horizontal solid fuel rod, for which a weak aiding natural convection flow is established in the underside of the rod by the action of the axial gradient of the pressure variation that gravity generates in the warm gas surrounding the flame. The spread rate is determined in the limit of infinitely fast kinetics, taking into account the effect of radiative losses from the solid surface. The effect of a small inclination of the rod is discussed, pointing out a continuous transition between upward and downward flame spread. Flame spread along flat-bottomed solid cylinders, for which the gradient of the hydrostatically generated pressure drives the flow both along and across the direction of flame propagation, is also analysed.

  8. Estimated migration rates under scenarios of global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jay R. Malcolm; Adam Markham; Ronald P. Neilson; Michael. Oaraci

    2002-01-01

    Greefihouse-induced warming and resulting shifts in climatic zones may exceed the migration capabilities of some species. We used fourteen combinations of General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Global Vegetation Models (GVMs) to investigate possible migration rates required under CO2 doubled climatic forcing.

  9. Avian Influenza: a global threat needing a global solution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Koh GCH

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract There have been three influenza pandemics since the 1900s, of which the 1919–1919 flu pandemic had the highest mortality rates. The influenza virus infects both humans and birds, and mutates using two mechanisms: antigenic drift and antigenic shift. Currently, the H5N1 avian flu virus is limited to outbreaks among poultry and persons in direct contact to infected poultry, but the mortality rate among infected humans is high. Avian influenza (AI is endemic in Asia as a result of unregulated poultry rearing in rural areas. Such birds often live in close proximity to humans and this increases the chance of genetic re-assortment between avian and human influenza viruses which may produce a mutant strain that is easily transmitted between humans. Once this happens, a global pandemic is likely. Unlike SARS, a person with influenza infection is contagious before the onset of case-defining symptoms which limits the effectiveness of case isolation as a control strategy. Researchers have shown that carefully orchestrated of public health measures could potentially limit the spread of an AI pandemic if implemented soon after the first cases appear. To successfully contain and control an AI pandemic, both national and global strategies are needed. National strategies include source surveillance and control, adequate stockpiles of anti-viral agents, timely production of flu vaccines and healthcare system readiness. Global strategies such as early integrated response, curbing the disease outbreak at source, utilization of global resources, continuing research and open communication are also critical.

  10. Human activity and the spread of Phytophthora ramorum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall J. Cushman; Michelle Cooper; Ross K. Meentemeyer; Shelly Benson

    2008-01-01

    Increasing numbers of studies are finding that humans can facilitate the spread of exotic plant species in protected wildlands. Hiking trails commonly serve as conduits for invaders and the number of exotic plant species occurring in protected areas is often correlated positively with visitation rates. Despite such evidence linking human activity to the spread of...

  11. Physical model for membrane protrusions during spreading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chamaraux, F; Ali, O; Fourcade, B; Keller, S; Bruckert, F

    2008-01-01

    During cell spreading onto a substrate, the kinetics of the contact area is an observable quantity. This paper is concerned with a physical approach to modeling this process in the case of ameboid motility where the membrane detaches itself from the underlying cytoskeleton at the leading edge. The physical model we propose is based on previous reports which highlight that membrane tension regulates cell spreading. Using a phenomenological feedback loop to mimic stress-dependent biochemistry, we show that the actin polymerization rate can be coupled to the stress which builds up at the margin of the contact area between the cell and the substrate. In the limit of small variation of membrane tension, we show that the actin polymerization rate can be written in a closed form. Our analysis defines characteristic lengths which depend on elastic properties of the membrane–cytoskeleton complex, such as the membrane–cytoskeleton interaction, and on molecular parameters, the rate of actin polymerization. We discuss our model in the case of axi-symmetric and non-axi-symmetric spreading and we compute the characteristic time scales as a function of fundamental elastic constants such as the strength of membrane–cytoskeleton adherence

  12. Information spread in networks: Games, optimal control, and stabilization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khanafer, Ali

    on the network. To this end, we propose a distributed version of the classical logic-based supervisory control scheme. Given a network of agents whose dynamics contain unknown parameters, the distributed supervisory control scheme is used to assist the agents to converge to a certain set-point without requiring them to have explicit knowledge of that set-point. Unlike the classical supervisory control scheme where a centralized supervisor makes switching decisions among the candidate controllers, in our scheme, each agent is equipped with a local supervisor that switches among the available controllers. The switching decisions made at a certain agent depend only on the information from its neighboring agents. We provide sufficient conditions for stabilization and apply our framework to the distributed averaging problem in the presence of large modeling uncertainty. For infected networks, we study the stability properties of a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) diffusion model, so-called the n-intertwined Markov model, over arbitrary network topologies. Similar to the majority of infection spread dynamics, this model exhibits a threshold phenomenon. When the curing rates in the network are high, the all-healthy state is the unique equilibrium over the network. Otherwise, an endemic equilibrium state emerges, where some infection remains within the network. Using notions from positive systems theory, we provide conditions for the global asymptotic stability of the equilibrium points in both cases over strongly and weakly connected directed networks based on the value of the basic reproduction number, a fundamental quantity in the study of epidemics. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the n-intertwined Markov model can be viewed as a best-response dynamical system of a concave game among the nodes. This characterization allows us to cast new infection spread dynamics; additionally, we provide a sufficient condition, for the global convergence to the all-healthy state

  13. GENERAL: Epidemic spreading on networks with vaccination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Hong-Jing; Duan, Zhi-Sheng; Chen, Guan-Rong; Li, Rong

    2009-08-01

    In this paper, a new susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model on complex networks with imperfect vaccination is proposed. Two types of epidemic spreading patterns (the recovered individuals have or have not immunity) on scale-free networks are discussed. Both theoretical and numerical analyses are presented. The epidemic thresholds related to the vaccination rate, the vaccination-invalid rate and the vaccination success rate on scale-free networks are demonstrated, showing different results from the reported observations. This reveals that whether or not the epidemic can spread over a network under vaccination control is determined not only by the network structure but also by the medicine's effective duration. Moreover, for a given infective rate, the proportion of individuals to vaccinate can be calculated theoretically for the case that the recovered nodes have immunity. Finally, simulated results are presented to show how to control the disease prevalence.

  14. Does high yield spread dampen economic growth? : the case of US-Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yutaka Kurihara

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This article focuses on the relationship between the United States' and Japan's yield spread of interest rates and economic growth in Japan. The yield spread is defined in this article as the difference between the Japanese government bond yield minus the US government bond yield. Some studies have tackled this issue and found a negative relationship between the yield spread and economic growth; however, recent studies have shown no or a weak relationship. This problem has not yet consensus in spite of its importance. As the Japanese interest rate has been quite low since the adoption of the zero interest rate policy at the end of 1990s, the situation may change the results. The empirical results show that reliability of yield spread as a leading indicator of output growth exists in Japan; however, term structure of interest rate is not related to economic growth.

  15. Effects of local and global network connectivity on synergistic epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broder-Rodgers, David; Pérez-Reche, Francisco J.; Taraskin, Sergei N.

    2015-12-01

    Epidemics in networks can be affected by cooperation in transmission of infection and also connectivity between nodes. An interplay between these two properties and their influence on epidemic spread are addressed in the paper. A particular type of cooperative effects (called synergy effects) is considered, where the transmission rate between a pair of nodes depends on the number of infected neighbors. The connectivity effects are studied by constructing networks of different topology, starting with lattices with only local connectivity and then with networks that have both local and global connectivity obtained by random bond-rewiring to nodes within a certain distance. The susceptible-infected-removed epidemics were found to exhibit several interesting effects: (i) for epidemics with strong constructive synergy spreading in networks with high local connectivity, the bond rewiring has a negative role in epidemic spread, i.e., it reduces invasion probability; (ii) in contrast, for epidemics with destructive or weak constructive synergy spreading on networks of arbitrary local connectivity, rewiring helps epidemics to spread; (iii) and, finally, rewiring always enhances the spread of epidemics, independent of synergy, if the local connectivity is low.

  16. Vector population growth and condition-dependent movement drive the spread of plant pathogens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, Allison K; Peace, Angela; Power, Alison G; Bosque-Pérez, Nilsa A

    2017-08-01

    Plant viruses, often spread by arthropod vectors, impact natural and agricultural ecosystems worldwide. Intuitively, the movement behavior and life history of vectors influence pathogen spread, but the relative contribution of each factor has not been examined. Recent research has highlighted the influence of host infection status on vector behavior and life history. Here, we developed a model to explore how vector traits influence the spread of vector-borne plant viruses. We allowed vector life history (growth rate, carrying capacity) and movement behavior (departure and settlement rates) parameters to be conditional on whether the plant host is infected or healthy and whether the vector is viruliferous (carrying the virus) or not. We ran simulations under a wide range of parameter combinations and quantified the fraction of hosts infected over time. We also ran case studies of the model for Barley yellow dwarf virus, a persistently transmitted virus, and for Potato virus Y, a non-persistently transmitted virus. We quantified the relative importance of each parameter on pathogen spread using Latin hypercube sampling with the statistical partial rank correlation coefficient technique. We found two general types of mechanisms in our model that increased the rate of pathogen spread. First, increasing factors such as vector intrinsic growth rate, carrying capacity, and departure rate from hosts (independent of whether these factors were condition-dependent) led to more vectors moving between hosts, which increased pathogen spread. Second, changing condition-dependent factors such as a vector's preference for settling on a host with a different infection status than itself, and vector tendency to leave a host of the same infection status, led to increased contact between hosts and vectors with different infection statuses, which also increased pathogen spread. Overall, our findings suggest that vector population growth rates had the greatest influence on rates of virus

  17. Collective effect of personal behavior induced preventive measures and differential rate of transmission on spread of epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sagar, Vikram; Zhao, Yi

    2017-02-01

    In the present work, the effect of personal behavior induced preventive measures is studied on the spread of epidemics over scale free networks that are characterized by the differential rate of disease transmission. The role of personal behavior induced preventive measures is parameterized in terms of variable λ, which modulates the number of concurrent contacts a node makes with the fraction of its neighboring nodes. The dynamics of the disease is described by a non-linear Susceptible Infected Susceptible model based upon the discrete time Markov Chain method. The network mean field approach is generalized to account for the effect of non-linear coupling between the aforementioned factors on the collective dynamics of nodes. The upper bound estimates of the disease outbreak threshold obtained from the mean field theory are found to be in good agreement with the corresponding non-linear stochastic model. From the results of parametric study, it is shown that the epidemic size has inverse dependence on the preventive measures (λ). It has also been shown that the increase in the average degree of the nodes lowers the time of spread and enhances the size of epidemics.

  18. Evaluating crown fire rate of spread predictions from physics-based models

    Science.gov (United States)

    C. M. Hoffman; J. Ziegler; J. Canfield; R. R. Linn; W. Mell; C. H. Sieg; F. Pimont

    2015-01-01

    Modeling the behavior of crown fires is challenging due to the complex set of coupled processes that drive the characteristics of a spreading wildfire and the large range of spatial and temporal scales over which these processes occur. Detailed physics-based modeling approaches such as FIRETEC and the Wildland Urban Interface Fire Dynamics Simulator (WFDS) simulate...

  19. On entanglement spreading from holography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mezei, Márk [Princeton Center for Theoretical Science, Princeton University,Princeton, NJ 08544 (United States)

    2017-05-11

    A global quench is an interesting setting where we can study thermalization of subsystems in a pure state. We investigate entanglement entropy (EE) growth in global quenches in holographic field theories and relate some of its aspects to quantities characterizing chaos. More specifically we obtain four key results: We prove holographic bounds on the entanglement velocity v{sub E} and the butterfly effect speed v{sub B} that arises in the study of chaos. We obtain the EE as a function of time for large spherical entangling surfaces analytically. We show that the EE is insensitive to the details of the initial state or quench protocol. In a thermofield double state we determine analytically the two-sided mutual information between two large concentric spheres separated in time. We derive a bound on the rate of growth of EE for arbitrary shapes, and develop an expansion for EE at early times. In a companion paper https://arxiv.org/abs/1608.05101, these results are put in the broader context of EE growth in chaotic systems: we relate EE growth to the chaotic spreading of operators, derive bounds on EE at a given time, and compare the holographic results to spin chain numerics and toy models. In this paper, we perform holographic calculations that provide the basis of arguments presented in that paper. We prove holographic bounds on the entanglement velocity v{sub E} and the butterfly effect speed v{sub B} that arises in the study of chaos. We obtain the EE as a function of time for large spherical entangling surfaces analytically. We show that the EE is insensitive to the details of the initial state or quench protocol. In a thermofield double state we determine analytically the two-sided mutual information between two large concentric spheres separated in time. We derive a bound on the rate of growth of EE for arbitrary shapes, and develop an expansion for EE at early times.

  20. Experimental and scale up study of the flame spread over the PMMA sheets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mamourian Mojtaba

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available To explore the flame spread mechanisms over the solid fuel sheets, downward flame spread over vertical polymethylmethacrylate sheets with thicknesses from 1.75 to 5.75 mm have been examined in the quiescent environment. The dependence of the flame spread rate on the thickness of sheets is obtained by one-dimensional heat transfer model. An equation for the flame spread rate based on the thermal properties and the thickness of the sheet by scale up method is derived from this model. During combustion, temperature within the gas and solid phases is measured by a fine thermocouple. The pyrolysis temperature, the length of the pyrolysis zone, the length of the preheating zone, and the flame temperature are determined from the experimental data. Mathematical analysis has yielded realistic results. This model provides a useful formula to predict the rate of flame spread over any thin solid fuel.

  1. Rotated Walsh-Hadamard Spreading with Robust Channel Estimation for a Coded MC-CDMA System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raulefs Ronald

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigate rotated Walsh-Hadamard spreading matrices for a broadband MC-CDMA system with robust channel estimation in the synchronous downlink. The similarities between rotated spreading and signal space diversity are outlined. In a multiuser MC-CDMA system, possible performance improvements are based on the chosen detector, the channel code, and its Hamming distance. By applying rotated spreading in comparison to a standard Walsh-Hadamard spreading code, a higher throughput can be achieved. As combining the channel code and the spreading code forms a concatenated code, the overall minimum Hamming distance of the concatenated code increases. This asymptotically results in an improvement of the bit error rate for high signal-to-noise ratio. Higher convolutional channel code rates are mostly generated by puncturing good low-rate channel codes. The overall Hamming distance decreases significantly for the punctured channel codes. Higher channel code rates are favorable for MC-CDMA, as MC-CDMA utilizes diversity more efficiently compared to pure OFDMA. The application of rotated spreading in an MC-CDMA system allows exploiting diversity even further. We demonstrate that the rotated spreading gain is still present for a robust pilot-aided channel estimator. In a well-designed system, rotated spreading extends the performance by using a maximum likelihood detector with robust channel estimation at the receiver by about 1 dB.

  2. Globalization and democracy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DEEPAK NAYYAR

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACTThe gathering momentum of globalization in the world economy has coincided with the spread of political democracy across countries. Economies have become global. But politics remains national. This essay explores the relationship between globalization and democracy, which is neither linear nor characterized by structural rigidities. It seeks to analyze how globalization might constrain degrees of freedom for nation states and space for democratic politics, and how political democracy within countries might exercise some checks and balances on markets and globalization. The essential argument is that the relationship between globalization and democracy is dialectical and does not conform to ideological caricatures.

  3. Spreading, Infestation and Damage Rates and Adult Population Monitoring of Tomato Leaf Miner [Tuta absoluta (Meyrick) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae)] on Open Field Tomato Grown in the South Marmara Region of Turkey

    OpenAIRE

    ÇETİN, Gürsel; GÖKSEL, Pınar; DURA, Onur; HANTAŞ, Cemil

    2014-01-01

    This study was conducted in order to determine spreading, infestation and fruit damage rates and adult population monitoring of Tomato leaf miner, (Tuta absoluta, Meyrick) on open field tomato grown in the South Marmara Region (Bilecik, Bursa, Kocaeli, Sakarya and Yalova provinces) of Turkey in 2011-2012. As result of spreading studies carried out according to systematic sampling method, it was determined that all tomato locations in every province were infested by this pest. Infestation rate...

  4. Disease spreading in real-life networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallos, Lazaros; Argyrakis, Panos

    2002-08-01

    In recent years the scientific community has shown a vivid interest in the network structure and dynamics of real-life organized systems. Many such systems, covering an extremely wide range of applications, have been recently shown to exhibit scale-free character in their connectivity distribution, meaning that they obey a power law. Modeling of epidemics on lattices and small-world networks suffers from the presence of a critical infection threshold, above which the entire population is infected. For scale-free networks, the original assumption was that the formation of a giant cluster would lead to an epidemic spreading in the same way as in simpler networks. Here we show that modeling epidemics on a scale-free network can greatly improve the predictions on the rate and efficiency of spreading, as compared to lattice models and small-world networks. We also show that the dynamics of a disease are greatly influenced by the underlying population structure. The exact same model can describe a plethora of networks, such as social networks, virus spreading in the Web, rumor spreading, signal transmission etc.

  5. On the role of radiation and dimensionality in predicting flow opposed flame spread over thin fuels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Chenthil; Kumar, Amit

    2012-06-01

    In this work a flame-spread model is formulated in three dimensions to simulate opposed flow flame spread over thin solid fuels. The flame-spread model is coupled to a three-dimensional gas radiation model. The experiments [1] on downward spread and zero gravity quiescent spread over finite width thin fuel are simulated by flame-spread models in both two and three dimensions to assess the role of radiation and effect of dimensionality on the prediction of the flame-spread phenomena. It is observed that while radiation plays only a minor role in normal gravity downward spread, in zero gravity quiescent spread surface radiation loss holds the key to correct prediction of low oxygen flame spread rate and quenching limit. The present three-dimensional simulations show that even in zero gravity gas radiation affects flame spread rate only moderately (as much as 20% at 100% oxygen) as the heat feedback effect exceeds the radiation loss effect only moderately. However, the two-dimensional model with the gas radiation model badly over-predicts the zero gravity flame spread rate due to under estimation of gas radiation loss to the ambient surrounding. The two-dimensional model was also found to be inadequate for predicting the zero gravity flame attributes, like the flame length and the flame width, correctly. The need for a three-dimensional model was found to be indispensable for consistently describing the zero gravity flame-spread experiments [1] (including flame spread rate and flame size) especially at high oxygen levels (>30%). On the other hand it was observed that for the normal gravity downward flame spread for oxygen levels up to 60%, the two-dimensional model was sufficient to predict flame spread rate and flame size reasonably well. Gas radiation is seen to increase the three-dimensional effect especially at elevated oxygen levels (>30% for zero gravity and >60% for normal gravity flames).

  6. Organic carbon burial rates in mangrove sediments: strengthening the global budget

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breithaupt, J.; Smoak, Joseph M.; Smith, Thomas J.; Sanders, Christian J.; Hoare, Armando

    2012-01-01

    Mangrove wetlands exist in the transition zone between terrestrial and marine environments and as such were historically overlooked in discussions of terrestrial and marine carbon cycling. In recent decades, mangroves have increasingly been credited with producing and burying large quantities of organic carbon (OC). The amount of available data regarding OC burial in mangrove soils has more than doubled since the last primary literature review (2003). This includes data from some of the largest, most developed mangrove forests in the world, providing an opportunity to strengthen the global estimate. First-time representation is now included for mangroves in Brazil, Colombia, Malaysia, Indonesia, China, Japan, Vietnam, and Thailand, along with additional data from Mexico and the United States. Our objective is to recalculate the centennial-scale burial rate of OC at both the local and global scales. Quantification of this rate enables better understanding of the current carbon sink capacity of mangroves as well as helps to quantify and/or validate the other aspects of the mangrove carbon budget such as import, export, and remineralization. Statistical analysis of the data supports use of the geometric mean as the most reliable central tendency measurement. Our estimate is that mangrove systems bury 163 (+40; -31) g OC m-2 yr-1 (95% C.I.). Globally, the 95% confidence interval for the annual burial rate is 26.1 (+6.3; -5.1) Tg OC. This equates to a burial fraction that is 42% larger than that of the most recent mangrove carbon budget (2008), and represents 10–15% of estimated annual mangrove production. This global rate supports previous conclusions that, on a centennial time scale, 8–15% of all OC burial in marine settings occurs in mangrove systems.

  7. Organic carbon burial rates in mangrove sediments: Strengthening the global budget

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breithaupt, Joshua L.; Smoak, Joseph M.; Smith, Thomas J., III; Sanders, Christian J.; Hoare, Armando

    2012-09-01

    Mangrove wetlands exist in the transition zone between terrestrial and marine environments and as such were historically overlooked in discussions of terrestrial and marine carbon cycling. In recent decades, mangroves have increasingly been credited with producing and burying large quantities of organic carbon (OC). The amount of available data regarding OC burial in mangrove soils has more than doubled since the last primary literature review (2003). This includes data from some of the largest, most developed mangrove forests in the world, providing an opportunity to strengthen the global estimate. First-time representation is now included for mangroves in Brazil, Colombia, Malaysia, Indonesia, China, Japan, Vietnam, and Thailand, along with additional data from Mexico and the United States. Our objective is to recalculate the centennial-scale burial rate of OC at both the local and global scales. Quantification of this rate enables better understanding of the current carbon sink capacity of mangroves as well as helps to quantify and/or validate the other aspects of the mangrove carbon budget such as import, export, and remineralization. Statistical analysis of the data supports use of the geometric mean as the most reliable central tendency measurement. Our estimate is that mangrove systems bury 163 (+40; -31) g OC m-2 yr-1 (95% C.I.). Globally, the 95% confidence interval for the annual burial rate is 26.1 (+6.3; -5.1) Tg OC. This equates to a burial fraction that is 42% larger than that of the most recent mangrove carbon budget (2008), and represents 10-15% of estimated annual mangrove production. This global rate supports previous conclusions that, on a centennial time scale, 8-15% of all OC burial in marine settings occurs in mangrove systems.

  8. A metric of influential spreading during contagion dynamics through the air transportation network.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christos Nicolaides

    Full Text Available The spread of infectious diseases at the global scale is mediated by long-range human travel. Our ability to predict the impact of an outbreak on human health requires understanding the spatiotemporal signature of early-time spreading from a specific location. Here, we show that network topology, geography, traffic structure and individual mobility patterns are all essential for accurate predictions of disease spreading. Specifically, we study contagion dynamics through the air transportation network by means of a stochastic agent-tracking model that accounts for the spatial distribution of airports, detailed air traffic and the correlated nature of mobility patterns and waiting-time distributions of individual agents. From the simulation results and the empirical air-travel data, we formulate a metric of influential spreading--the geographic spreading centrality--which accounts for spatial organization and the hierarchical structure of the network traffic, and provides an accurate measure of the early-time spreading power of individual nodes.

  9. Microanalytic Coding versus Global Rating of Maternal Parenting Behaviour

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morawska, Alina; Basha, Allison; Adamson, Michelle; Winter, Leanne

    2015-01-01

    This study examined the relationship between microanalytic coding and global rating systems when coding maternal parenting behaviour in two contexts. Observational data from 55 mother--child interactions with two- to four-year-old children, in either a mealtime (clinic; N?=?20 or control; N?=?20) or a playtime context (community; N?=?15), were…

  10. Measuring landscape-scale spread and persistence of an invaded submerged plant community from airborne remote sensing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Maria J; Khanna, Shruti; Hestir, Erin L; Greenberg, Jonathan A; Ustin, Susan L

    2016-09-01

    Processes of spread and patterns of persistence of invasive species affect species and communities in the new environment. Predicting future rates of spread is of great interest for timely management decisions, but this depends on models that rely on understanding the processes of invasion and historic observations of spread and persistence. Unfortunately, the rates of spread and patterns of persistence are difficult to model or directly observe, especially when multiple rates of spread and diverse persistence patterns may be co-occurring over the geographic distribution of the invaded ecosystem. Remote sensing systematically acquires data over large areas at fine spatial and spectral resolutions over multiple time periods that can be used to quantify spread processes and persistence patterns. We used airborne imaging spectroscopy data acquired once a year for 5 years from 2004 to 2008 to map an invaded submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) community across 2220 km 2 of waterways in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, California, USA, and measured its spread rate and its persistence. Submerged aquatic vegetation covered 13-23 km 2 of the waterways (6-11%) every year. Yearly new growth accounted for 40-60% of the SAV area, ~50% of which survived to following year. Spread rates were overall negative and persistence decreased with time. From this dataset, we were able to identify both radial and saltatorial spread of the invaded SAV in the entire extent of the Delta over time. With both decreasing spread rate and persistence, it is possible that over time the invasion of this SAV community could decrease its ecological impact. A landscape-scale approach allows measurements of all invasion fronts and the spatial anisotropies associated with spread processes and persistence patterns, without spatial interpolation, at locations both proximate and distant to the focus of invasion at multiple points in time. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

  11. The spreading time in SIS epidemics on networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Zhidong; Van Mieghem, Piet

    2018-03-01

    In a Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) process, we investigate the spreading time Tm, which is the time when the number of infected nodes in the metastable state is first reached, starting from the outbreak of the epidemics. We observe that the spreading time Tm resembles a lognormal-like distribution, though with different deep tails, both for the Markovian and the non-Markovian infection process, which implies that the spreading time can be very long with a relatively high probability. In addition, we show that a stronger virus, with a higher effective infection rate τ or an earlier timing of the infection attempts, does not always lead to a shorter average spreading time E [Tm ] . We numerically demonstrate that the average spreading time E [Tm ] in the complete graph and the star graph scales logarithmically as a function of the network size N for a fixed fraction of infected nodes in the metastable state.

  12. Dependence of credit spread and macro-conditions based on an alterable structure model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-01

    The fat-tail financial data and cyclical financial market makes it difficult for the fixed structure model based on Gaussian distribution to characterize the dynamics of corporate bonds spreads. Using a flexible structure model based on generalized error distribution, this paper focuses on the impact of macro-level factors on the spreads of corporate bonds in China. It is found that in China's corporate bonds market, macroeconomic conditions have obvious structural transformational effects on bonds spreads, and their structural features remain stable with the downgrade of bonds ratings. The impact of macroeconomic conditions on spreads is significant for different structures, and the differences between the structures increase as ratings decline. For different structures, the persistent characteristics of bonds spreads are obviously stronger than those of recursive ones, which suggest an obvious speculation in bonds market. It is also found that the structure switching of bonds with different ratings is not synchronous, which indicates the shift of investment between different grades of bonds. PMID:29723295

  13. Dependence of credit spread and macro-conditions based on an alterable structure model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Yun; Tian, Yixiang; Xiao, Zhuang; Zhou, Xiangyun

    2018-01-01

    The fat-tail financial data and cyclical financial market makes it difficult for the fixed structure model based on Gaussian distribution to characterize the dynamics of corporate bonds spreads. Using a flexible structure model based on generalized error distribution, this paper focuses on the impact of macro-level factors on the spreads of corporate bonds in China. It is found that in China's corporate bonds market, macroeconomic conditions have obvious structural transformational effects on bonds spreads, and their structural features remain stable with the downgrade of bonds ratings. The impact of macroeconomic conditions on spreads is significant for different structures, and the differences between the structures increase as ratings decline. For different structures, the persistent characteristics of bonds spreads are obviously stronger than those of recursive ones, which suggest an obvious speculation in bonds market. It is also found that the structure switching of bonds with different ratings is not synchronous, which indicates the shift of investment between different grades of bonds.

  14. How We Got to the Northern Hemisphere Ice Ages: Late Miocene Global Cooling and Plate Tectonic CO2 Forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herbert, T.; Dalton, C. A.; Carchedi, C.

    2017-12-01

    The evolution of Earth's climate between "refrigeration" of East Antarctica and the onset of cyclic Northern Hemisphere glaciation spanned more than 11 Myr. In the latest Miocene (Messinian) time, approximately half way on this journey, changes on land, ranging from the expansion of arid zones to major floral and faunal ecosystem shifts, accelerated. Recent compilations of marine surface temperatures reveal that global cooling from the Miocene Optimum (14-16Ma) also accelerated in late Miocene (7-5.35 Ma) time to reach temperatures not much above Holocene conditions. Both hemispheres cooled in parallel, with the changes amplified at higher latitudes in comparison to the tropics. Despite the strong circumstantial case for CO2 decline as the dominant cause of late Miocene climatic and evolutionary change, proxy indicators of CO2concentrations paint an equivocal picture of greenhouse forcing. Here we provide evidence that global sea floor spreading (SFS) rates decelerated at exactly the times of major climatic cooling, linking a decline in tectonic degassing (at both subduction zones and mid-ocean ridges) to fundamental shifts in the global carbon cycle. Our work utilizes newly available global compilations of seafloor fabric and marine magnetic anomalies provided by the NSF-funded Global Seafloor Fabric and Magnetic Lineation Data Base Project. Previous global compilations of SFS typically binned estimates over 10 Myr increments, losing critical resolution on the timescale of late Neogene climate changes. We further improve the signal:noise of SFS estimates by incorporating recent advances in the astronomical calibration of the Miocene geomagnetic polarity timescale. We use two approaches to compile spreading rate estimates over the past 20 Myr at each spreading system: optimized finite rotation calculations, and averages of sea floor-spreading derived from the distances of magnetic lineations along flow lines on the sea floor. Weighted by ridge length, we find an 25

  15. Epidemic spreading on interconnected networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saumell-Mendiola, Anna; Serrano, M Ángeles; Boguñá, Marián

    2012-08-01

    Many real networks are not isolated from each other but form networks of networks, often interrelated in nontrivial ways. Here, we analyze an epidemic spreading process taking place on top of two interconnected complex networks. We develop a heterogeneous mean-field approach that allows us to calculate the conditions for the emergence of an endemic state. Interestingly, a global endemic state may arise in the coupled system even though the epidemics is not able to propagate on each network separately and even when the number of coupling connections is small. Our analytic results are successfully confronted against large-scale numerical simulations.

  16. Numerical simulations of fire spread in a Pinus pinaster needles fuel bed

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Menage, D; Chetehouna, K; Mell, W

    2012-01-01

    The main aim of this paper is to extend the cases of WFDS model validation by comparing its predictions to literature data on a ground fire spreading in a Pinus pinaster needles fuel bed. This comparison is based on the experimental results of Mendes-Lopes and co-workers. This study is performed using the same domain as in the experiments (3.0m×1.2m×0.9m) with a mesh of 49,280 cells. We investigate the influence of wind (varied between 0 and 2 m/s) and moisture content (10 and 18%) on the rate of spread. The WFDS rate of spread is determined using a cross-correlation function of ground temperature profiles. The simulated rate of spread, as well as temperature, compared favourably to experimental values and show the WFDS model capacity to predict ground fires in Pinus Pinaster fuel beds.

  17. Numerical simulations of fire spread in a Pinus pinaster needles fuel bed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menage, D.; Chetehouna, K.; Mell, W.

    2012-11-01

    The main aim of this paper is to extend the cases of WFDS model validation by comparing its predictions to literature data on a ground fire spreading in a Pinus pinaster needles fuel bed. This comparison is based on the experimental results of Mendes-Lopes and co-workers. This study is performed using the same domain as in the experiments (3.0m×1.2m×0.9m) with a mesh of 49,280 cells. We investigate the influence of wind (varied between 0 and 2 m/s) and moisture content (10 and 18%) on the rate of spread. The WFDS rate of spread is determined using a cross-correlation function of ground temperature profiles. The simulated rate of spread, as well as temperature, compared favourably to experimental values and show the WFDS model capacity to predict ground fires in Pinus Pinaster fuel beds.

  18. 76 FR 2930 - International Product Change-Global Expedited Package Services-Non- Published Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-18

    ... POSTAL SERVICE International Product Change--Global Expedited Package Services-- Non- Published... request with the Postal Regulatory Commission to add Global Expedited Package Services-- Non-Published...--Non-Published Rates, to the Competitive Products List, and Notice of Filing (Under Seal) the Enabling...

  19. Searching for the most cost-effective strategy for controlling epidemics spreading on regular and small-world networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleczkowski, Adam; Oleś, Katarzyna; Gudowska-Nowak, Ewa; Gilligan, Christopher A

    2012-01-07

    We present a combined epidemiological and economic model for control of diseases spreading on local and small-world networks. The disease is characterized by a pre-symptomatic infectious stage that makes detection and control of cases more difficult. The effectiveness of local (ring-vaccination or culling) and global control strategies is analysed by comparing the net present values of the combined cost of preventive treatment and illness. The optimal strategy is then selected by minimizing the total cost of the epidemic. We show that three main strategies emerge, with treating a large number of individuals (global strategy, GS), treating a small number of individuals in a well-defined neighbourhood of a detected case (local strategy) and allowing the disease to spread unchecked (null strategy, NS). The choice of the optimal strategy is governed mainly by a relative cost of palliative and preventive treatments. If the disease spreads within the well-defined neighbourhood, the local strategy is optimal unless the cost of a single vaccine is much higher than the cost associated with hospitalization. In the latter case, it is most cost-effective to refrain from prevention. Destruction of local correlations, either by long-range (small-world) links or by inclusion of many initial foci, expands the range of costs for which the NS is most cost-effective. The GS emerges for the case when the cost of prevention is much lower than the cost of treatment and there is a substantial non-local component in the disease spread. We also show that local treatment is only desirable if the disease spreads on a small-world network with sufficiently few long-range links; otherwise it is optimal to treat globally. In the mean-field case, there are only two optimal solutions, to treat all if the cost of the vaccine is low and to treat nobody if it is high. The basic reproduction ratio, R(0), does not depend on the rate of responsive treatment in this case and the disease always invades

  20. Globalization and the Changing Epidemiology of Hepatitis A Virus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobsen, Kathryn H

    2018-03-02

    Increased economic interdependence, social integration, and other aspects of globalization are contributing to significant changes in hepatitis A epidemiology. Globally, the incidence of hepatitis A virus (HAV) infection is decreasing, the age at midpoint of population immunity (AMPI) is increasing, and the proportion of symptomatic cases is increasing as the average age at infection increases. In low-income countries, HAV remains endemic but improved water and sanitation systems are reducing transmission rates among young children. In high-income countries, most adults remain susceptible to HAV and foodborne outbreaks are becoming more frequent. Middle-income countries have diverse epidemiological profiles, and they play important roles in the global spread of HAV through international trade and travel. Future changes in the epidemiology of hepatitis A will be heavily influenced by globalization processes. Copyright © 2018 Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press; all rights reserved.

  1. Information spread of emergency events: path searching on social networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Weihui; Hu, Hongzhi; Wu, Tunan; Dai, Yonghui

    2014-01-01

    Emergency has attracted global attentions of government and the public, and it will easily trigger a series of serious social problems if it is not supervised effectively in the dissemination process. In the Internet world, people communicate with each other and form various virtual communities based on social networks, which lead to a complex and fast information spread pattern of emergency events. This paper collects Internet data based on data acquisition and topic detection technology, analyzes the process of information spread on social networks, describes the diffusions and impacts of that information from the perspective of random graph, and finally seeks the key paths through an improved IBF algorithm. Application cases have shown that this algorithm can search the shortest spread paths efficiently, which may help us to guide and control the information dissemination of emergency events on early warning.

  2. Information Spread of Emergency Events: Path Searching on Social Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weihui Dai

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Emergency has attracted global attentions of government and the public, and it will easily trigger a series of serious social problems if it is not supervised effectively in the dissemination process. In the Internet world, people communicate with each other and form various virtual communities based on social networks, which lead to a complex and fast information spread pattern of emergency events. This paper collects Internet data based on data acquisition and topic detection technology, analyzes the process of information spread on social networks, describes the diffusions and impacts of that information from the perspective of random graph, and finally seeks the key paths through an improved IBF algorithm. Application cases have shown that this algorithm can search the shortest spread paths efficiently, which may help us to guide and control the information dissemination of emergency events on early warning.

  3. Dynamics of cell area and force during spreading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brill-Karniely, Yifat; Nisenholz, Noam; Rajendran, Kavitha; Dang, Quynh; Krishnan, Ramaswamy; Zemel, Assaf

    2014-12-16

    Experiments on human pulmonary artery endothelial cells are presented to show that cell area and the force exerted on a substrate increase simultaneously, but with different rates during spreading; rapid-force increase systematically occurred several minutes past initial spreading. We examine this theoretically and present three complementary mechanisms that may accompany the development of lamellar stress during spreading and underlie the observed behavior. These include: 1), the dynamics of cytoskeleton assembly at the cell basis; 2), the strengthening of acto-myosin forces in response to the generated lamellar stresses; and 3), the passive strain-stiffening of the cytoskeleton. Copyright © 2014 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Database of diazotrophs in global ocean: abundance, biomass and nitrogen fixation rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y.-W. Luo

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Marine N2 fixing microorganisms, termed diazotrophs, are a key functional group in marine pelagic ecosystems. The biological fixation of dinitrogen (N2 to bioavailable nitrogen provides an important new source of nitrogen for pelagic marine ecosystems and influences primary productivity and organic matter export to the deep ocean. As one of a series of efforts to collect biomass and rates specific to different phytoplankton functional groups, we have constructed a database on diazotrophic organisms in the global pelagic upper ocean by compiling about 12 000 direct field measurements of cyanobacterial diazotroph abundances (based on microscopic cell counts or qPCR assays targeting the nifH genes and N2 fixation rates. Biomass conversion factors are estimated based on cell sizes to convert abundance data to diazotrophic biomass. The database is limited spatially, lacking large regions of the ocean especially in the Indian Ocean. The data are approximately log-normal distributed, and large variances exist in most sub-databases with non-zero values differing 5 to 8 orders of magnitude. Reporting the geometric mean and the range of one geometric standard error below and above the geometric mean, the pelagic N2 fixation rate in the global ocean is estimated to be 62 (52–73 Tg N yr−1 and the pelagic diazotrophic biomass in the global ocean is estimated to be 2.1 (1.4–3.1 Tg C from cell counts and to 89 (43–150 Tg C from nifH-based abundances. Reporting the arithmetic mean and one standard error instead, these three global estimates are 140 ± 9.2 Tg N yr−1, 18 ± 1.8 Tg C and 590 ± 70 Tg C, respectively. Uncertainties related to biomass conversion factors can change the estimate of geometric mean pelagic diazotrophic biomass in the global ocean by about ±70%. It was recently established that the most commonly applied method used to measure N2

  5. Effect of AC electric fields on flame spread over electrical wire

    KAUST Repository

    Kim, Minkuk

    2011-01-01

    The effect of electric fields on the characteristics of flame spread over insulated electrical wire has been investigated experimentally by varying AC voltage and frequency applied to the wire in the normal gravity condition. The polyethylene (PE) insulated electrical wire was placed horizontally on electrically non-conducting posts and one end of the wire was connected to the high voltage terminal. Thus, the electrical system is the single electrode configuration. The wire was ignited at one end and the flame spread rate along the wire has been measured from the images using a video camera. Two distinct regimes existed depending on the applied AC frequency. In the low frequency regime, the flame spread rate decreased with the frequency and voltage. While in the high frequency regime, it decreased initially with voltage and then increased. At high frequency, the spread rate was even over that without applying electric fields. This result implies that fire safety codes developed without considering the effect of electric fields may require modifications. © 2010 Published by Elsevier Inc. on behalf of The Combustion Institute. All rights reserved.

  6. Spreading dynamics of an e-commerce preferential information model on scale-free networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Chen; Li, Tao; Guan, Zhi-Hong; Wang, Yuanmei; Liu, Xiongding

    2017-02-01

    In order to study the influence of the preferential degree and the heterogeneity of underlying networks on the spread of preferential e-commerce information, we propose a novel susceptible-infected-beneficial model based on scale-free networks. The spreading dynamics of the preferential information are analyzed in detail using the mean-field theory. We determine the basic reproductive number and equilibria. The theoretical analysis indicates that the basic reproductive number depends mainly on the preferential degree and the topology of the underlying networks. We prove the global stability of the information-elimination equilibrium. The permanence of preferential information and the global attractivity of the information-prevailing equilibrium are also studied in detail. Some numerical simulations are presented to verify the theoretical results.

  7. Understanding the spreading patterns of mobile phone viruses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Pu; Gonzalez, Marta; Hidalgo, Cesar; Barabasi, Albert-Laszlo

    2009-03-01

    Mobile viruses are little more than a nuisance today, but given our increased reliance on wireless communication, in the near future they could pose more risk than their PC based counterparts. Despite of the more than three hundred mobile viruses known so far, little is known about their spreading pattern, partly due to a lack of data on the communication and travel patterns of mobile phone users. Starting from the traffic and the communication pattern of six million mobile phone users, we model the vulnerability of mobile communications against potential virus outbreaks. We show that viruses exploiting Bluetooth and multimedia messaging services (MMS) follow markedly different spreading patterns. The Bluetooth virus can reach all susceptible handsets, but spreads relatively slowly, as its spread is driven by human mobility. In contrast, an MMS virus can spread rapidly, but because the underlying social network is fragmented, it can reach only a small fraction of all susceptible users. This difference affects both their spreading rate, the number of infected users, as well as the defense measures one needs to take to protect the system against potential viral outbreak.

  8. Epidemic Spreading with Heterogeneous Awareness on Human Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanling Lu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The spontaneous awareness behavioral responses of individuals have a significant impact on epidemic spreading. In this paper, a modified Susceptible-Alert-Infected-Susceptible (SAIS epidemic model with heterogeneous awareness is presented to study epidemic spreading in human networks and the impact of heterogeneous awareness on epidemic dynamics. In this model, when susceptible individuals receive awareness information about the presence of epidemic from their infected neighbor nodes, they will become alert individuals with heterogeneous awareness rate. Theoretical analysis and numerical simulations show that heterogeneous awareness can enhance the epidemic threshold with certain conditions and reduce the scale of virus outbreaks compared with no awareness. What is more, for the same awareness parameter, it also shows that heterogeneous awareness can slow effectively the spreading size and does not delay the arrival time of epidemic spreading peak compared with homogeneous awareness.

  9. Spreading convulsions, spreading depolarization and epileptogenesis in human cerebral cortex

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dreier, Jens P; Major, Sebastian; Pannek, Heinz-Wolfgang

    2012-01-01

    Spreading depolarization of cells in cerebral grey matter is characterized by massive ion translocation, neuronal swelling and large changes in direct current-coupled voltage recording. The near-complete sustained depolarization above the inactivation threshold for action potential generating...... stimulations. Eventually, epileptic field potentials were recorded during the period that had originally seen spreading depression of activity. Such spreading convulsions are characterized by epileptic field potentials on the final shoulder of the large slow potential change of spreading depolarization. We...

  10. Effect of applied DC electric fields in flame spread over polyethylene-coated electrical wire

    KAUST Repository

    Jin, Young Kyu

    2011-03-01

    We experimentally investigated the effect of applied DC electric fields on the flame spread over polyethylene-coated electrical wire. The flame-spread rates over electrical wire with negative and positive DC electric fields from 0 to ±7 kV were measured and analyzed. We compared the results for DC electric fields with previous results for AC electric fields. We explored whether or not various flame shapes could be obtained with DC electric fields and the main reason for the flame-spread acceleration, particularly at the end of the electrical wire, for AC electric fields. We found that DC electric fields do not significantly affect the flame-spread rates. However, the flame shape is mildly altered by the ionic wind effect even for DC electric fields. The flame-spread rate is relevant to the flame shape and the slanted direction in spite of the mild impact. A possible explanation for the flame spread is given by a thermal-balance mechanism and fuel-vapor jet. © 2011 The Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers.

  11. Dynamical Model about Rumor Spreading with Medium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaxia Zhao

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Rumor is a kind of social remark, that is untrue, and not be confirmed, and spreads on a large scale in a short time. Usually, it can induce a cloud of pressure, anxiety, and panic. Traditionally, it is propagated by word of mouth. Nowadays, with the emergence of the internet, rumors can be spread by instant messengers, emails, or publishing. With this new pattern of spreading, an ISRW dynamical model considering the medium as a subclass is established. Beside the dynamical analysis of the model, we mainly explore the mechanism of spreading of individuals-to-individuals and medium-to-individual. By numerical simulation, we find that if we want to control the rumor spreading, it will not only need to control the rate of change of the spreader subclass, but also need to control the change of the information about rumor in medium which has larger influence. Moreover, to control the effusion of rumor is more important than deleting existing information about rumor. On the one hand, government should enhance the management of internet. On the other hand, relevant legal institutions for punishing the rumor creator and spreader on internet who can be tracked should be established. Using this way, involved authorities can propose efficient measures to control the rumor spreading to keep the stabilization of society and development of economy.

  12. FACTORS INFLUENCING YIELD SPREADS OF THE MALAYSIAN BONDS

    OpenAIRE

    Norliza Ahmad; Joriah Muhammad; Tajul Ariffin Masron

    2009-01-01

    Malaysian bond market is developing rapidly but not much is understood in terms of macroeconomic factors that could influence the yield spread of the Ringgit Malaysian denominated bonds. Based on a multifactor model, this paper examines the impact of four macroeconomic factors namely: Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI), Industry Production Index (IPI), Consumer Price Index (CPI) and interest rates (IR) on bond yield spread of the Malaysian Government Securities (MGS) and Corporate Bonds (CBs...

  13. Global Self-rating Validation of the Measurement of Extraversion and Neuroticism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farley, Frank H.; Soper, Robert E.

    1976-01-01

    Results show that individuals identified by the personality inventory as extravert or introvert differed significantly in the expected direction on the global self ratings. The results were also obtained for neuroticism. (Author/DEP)

  14. Modeling the worldwide spread of pandemic influenza: baseline case and containment interventions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vittoria Colizza

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza virus, which is now widespread in Southeast Asia and which diffused recently in some areas of the Balkans region and Western Europe, has raised a public alert toward the potential occurrence of a new severe influenza pandemic. Here we study the worldwide spread of a pandemic and its possible containment at a global level taking into account all available information on air travel. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We studied a metapopulation stochastic epidemic model on a global scale that considers airline travel flow data among urban areas. We provided a temporal and spatial evolution of the pandemic with a sensitivity analysis of different levels of infectiousness of the virus and initial outbreak conditions (both geographical and seasonal. For each spreading scenario we provided the timeline and the geographical impact of the pandemic in 3,100 urban areas, located in 220 different countries. We compared the baseline cases with different containment strategies, including travel restrictions and the therapeutic use of antiviral (AV drugs. We investigated the effect of the use of AV drugs in the event that therapeutic protocols can be carried out with maximal coverage for the populations in all countries. In view of the wide diversity of AV stockpiles in different regions of the world, we also studied scenarios in which only a limited number of countries are prepared (i.e., have considerable AV supplies. In particular, we compared different plans in which, on the one hand, only prepared and wealthy countries benefit from large AV resources, with, on the other hand, cooperative containment scenarios in which countries with large AV stockpiles make a small portion of their supplies available worldwide. CONCLUSIONS: We show that the inclusion of air transportation is crucial in the assessment of the occurrence probability of global outbreaks. The large-scale therapeutic usage of AV drugs in all hit

  15. Epidemic spreading on dual-structure networks with mobile agents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Yiyang; Zhou, Yinzuo

    2017-02-01

    The rapid development of modern society continually transforms the social structure which leads to an increasingly distinct dual structure of higher population density in urban areas and lower density in rural areas. Such structure may induce distinctive spreading behavior of epidemics which does not happen in a single type structure. In this paper, we study the epidemic spreading of mobile agents on dual structure networks based on SIRS model. First, beyond the well known epidemic threshold for generic epidemic model that when the infection rate is below the threshold a pertinent infectious disease will die out, we find the other epidemic threshold which appears when the infection rate of a disease is relatively high. This feature of two thresholds for the SIRS model may lead to the elimination of infectious disease when social network has either high population density or low population density. Interestingly, however, we find that when a high density area is connected to a low density may cause persistent spreading of the infectious disease, even though the same disease will die out when it spreads in each single area. This phenomenon indicates the critical role of the connection between the two areas which could radically change the behavior of spreading dynamics. Our findings, therefore, provide new understanding of epidemiology pertinent to the characteristic modern social structure and have potential to develop controlling strategies accordingly.

  16. Suppressing epidemic spreading in multiplex networks with social-support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xiaolong; Wang, Ruijie; Tang, Ming; Cai, Shimin; Stanley, H. Eugene; Braunstein, Lidia A.

    2018-01-01

    Although suppressing the spread of a disease is usually achieved by investing in public resources, in the real world only a small percentage of the population have access to government assistance when there is an outbreak, and most must rely on resources from family or friends. We study the dynamics of disease spreading in social-contact multiplex networks when the recovery of infected nodes depends on resources from healthy neighbors in the social layer. We investigate how degree heterogeneity affects the spreading dynamics. Using theoretical analysis and simulations we find that degree heterogeneity promotes disease spreading. The phase transition of the infected density is hybrid and increases smoothly from zero to a finite small value at the first invasion threshold and then suddenly jumps at the second invasion threshold. We also find a hysteresis loop in the transition of the infected density. We further investigate how an overlap in the edges between two layers affects the spreading dynamics. We find that when the amount of overlap is smaller than a critical value the phase transition is hybrid and there is a hysteresis loop, otherwise the phase transition is continuous and the hysteresis loop vanishes. In addition, the edge overlap allows an epidemic outbreak when the transmission rate is below the first invasion threshold, but suppresses any explosive transition when the transmission rate is above the first invasion threshold.

  17. Plume spread and atmospheric stability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weber, R O [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

    1999-08-01

    The horizontal spread of a plume in atmospheric dispersion can be described by the standard deviation of horizontal direction. The widely used Pasquill-Gifford classes of atmospheric stability have assigned typical values of the standard deviation of horizontal wind direction and of the lapse rate. A measured lapse rate can thus be used to estimate the standard deviation of wind direction. It is examined by means of a large dataset of fast wind measurements how good these estimates are. (author) 1 fig., 2 refs.

  18. Can Equity Volatility Explain the Global Loan Pricing Puzzle?

    OpenAIRE

    Lewis Gaul; Pinar Uysal

    2013-01-01

    This paper examines whether unobservable differences in firm volatility are responsible for the global loan pricing puzzle, which is the observation that corporate loan interest rates appear to be lower in Europe than in the United States. We analyze whether equity volatility, an error prone measure of firm volatility, can explain this difference in loan spreads. We show that using equity volatility in OLS regressions will result in biased and inconsistent estimates of the difference in U.S. ...

  19. Global Incidence and Mortality Rates of Stomach Cancer and the Human Development Index: an Ecological Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khazaei, Salman; Rezaeian, Shahab; Soheylizad, Mokhtar; Khazaei, Somayeh; Biderafsh, Azam

    2016-01-01

    Stomach cancer (SC) is the second leading cause of cancer death with the rate of 10.4% in the world. The correlation between the incidence and mortality rates of SC and human development index (HDI) has not been globally determined. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the association between the incidence and mortality rates of SC and HDI in various regions. In this global ecological study, we used the data about the incidence and mortality rate of SC and HDI from the global cancer project and the United Nations Development Programme database, respectively. In 2012, SCs were estimated to have affected a total of 951,594 individuals (crude rate: 13.5 per 100,000 individuals) with a male/female ratio of 1.97, and caused 723,073 deaths worldwide (crude rate: 10.2 per 100,000 individuals). There was a positive correlation between the HDI and both incidence (r=0.28, countries with high and very high HDI is remarkable which should be the top priority of interventions for global health policymakers. In addition, health programs should be provided to reduce the burden of this disease in the regions with high incidence and mortality rates of SC.

  20. Effects of Evaporation/Condensation on Spreading and Contact Angle of a Volatile Liquid Drop

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Nengli; Chao, David F.; Singh, Bhim S. (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    Effects of evaporation/condensation on spreading and contact angle were experimentally studied. A sessile drop of R-113 was tested at different vapor environments to determine the effects of evaporation/condensation on the evolution of contact diameter and contact angle of the drop. Condensation on the drop surface occurs at both the saturated and a nonsaturated vapor environments and promotes the spreading. When the drop is placed in the saturated vapor environment it tends to completely wetting and spreads rapidly. In a nonsaturated vapor environment, the evolution of the sessile drop is divided three stages: condensation-spreading stage, evaporation-retracting stage and rapid contracting stage. In the first stage the drop behaves as in the saturated environment. In the evaporation -retracting stage, the competition between spreading and evaporation of the drop determines the evolution characteristics of the contact diameter and the contact angle. A lower evaporation rate struggles against the spreading power to turn the drop from spreading to retracting with a continuous increase of the contact angle. The drop placed in open air has a much higher evaporation rate. The strong evaporation suppresses the spreading and accelerates the retraction of the drop with a linear decrease of the contact diameter. The contraction of the evaporating drops is gradually accelerated when the contact diameter decreases to 3 min and less till drying up, though the evaporation rate is gradually slowing down.

  1. Spreading in online social networks: the role of social reinforcement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Muhua; Lü, Linyuan; Zhao, Ming

    2013-07-01

    Some epidemic spreading models are usually applied to analyze the propagation of opinions or news. However, the dynamics of epidemic spreading and information or behavior spreading are essentially different in many aspects. Centola's experiments [Science 329, 1194 (2010)] on behavior spreading in online social networks showed that the spreading is faster and broader in regular networks than in random networks. This result contradicts with the former understanding that random networks are preferable for spreading than regular networks. To describe the spreading in online social networks, a unknown-known-approved-exhausted four-status model was proposed, which emphasizes the effect of social reinforcement and assumes that the redundant signals can improve the probability of approval (i.e., the spreading rate). Performing the model on regular and random networks, it is found that our model can well explain the results of Centola's experiments on behavior spreading and some former studies on information spreading in different parameter space. The effects of average degree and network size on behavior spreading process are further analyzed. The results again show the importance of social reinforcement and are accordant with Centola's anticipation that increasing the network size or decreasing the average degree will enlarge the difference of the density of final approved nodes between regular and random networks. Our work complements the former studies on spreading dynamics, especially the spreading in online social networks where the information usually requires individuals' confirmations before being transmitted to others.

  2. Effects of Degree-Biased Transmission Rate and Nonlinear Infectivity on Rumor Spreading in Complex Social Networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naimi, Y.; Roshani, F.

    2010-12-01

    We introduce the generalized rumor spreading model and analytically investigate the epidemic spreading for this model on scale-free networks. To generalize the standard rumor spreading model (rumor model in which each node's infectivity equals its degree and all links have a uniform connectivity strength), we introduce not only the infectivity function to determine the simultaneous contacts that a given node (individual) establishes to its connected neighbors but also the connectivity strength function (CSF) for the direct link between two connected nodes that lead to degree-biased propagation of rumors. In the case of nonlinear functions, the generalization enters the infectivity's exponent α and the CSF's exponent β into the analytical rumor model. We show that one can adjust the exponents α and β to control the epidemic threshold which is absent for the standard rumor spreading model. In addition, we obtain the critical threshold for the generalized model on the finite scale-free network and compare our results with the standard model on the same network. We show that the generalized model has a greater threshold than the standard model. (author)

  3. Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    F. Gerard Adams

    2008-01-01

    The rapid globalization of the world economy is causing fundamental changes in patterns of trade and finance. Some economists have argued that globalization has arrived and that the world is “flat†. While the geographic scope of markets has increased, the author argues that new patterns of trade and finance are a result of the discrepancies between “old†countries and “new†. As the differences are gradually wiped out, particularly if knowledge and technology spread worldwide, the t...

  4. Unidirectional spreading of oil under solid ice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weerasuriya, S.A.; Yapa, P.D.

    1993-01-01

    Equations are presented to describe the unidirectional spreading of oil under solid ice covers floating in calm water. These spreading equations are derived using a simplified form of the Navier-Stokes equations, and cover both the constant discharge and the constant volume modes. An equation for computing final slick length is also given. Laboratory experiments using physical models were conducted to verify the equations. The experiments used oils of different viscosities, ice cover roughnesses varying from smooth to rough, and a variety of discharge conditions. The emphasis of the study was on the dominant spreading mechanism for oil under ice, which is the buoyancy-viscous phase. The laboratory results agree closely with the theoretical predictions. Discrepancies can be attributed to the experimental difficulties and errors introduced from the assumptions made in deriving the theory. The equations presented will be useful in computing spreading rate during an accidental oil spill or in contingency planning. The equations are simple to use, suitable for hand calculations or for incorporation into numerical models for oil spill simulation. 24 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab

  5. Dynamics of epidemic spreading model with drug-resistant variation on scale-free networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Chen; Li, Tao; Zhang, Wu; Dong, Jing

    2018-03-01

    Considering the influence of the virus' drug-resistant variation, a novel SIVRS (susceptible-infected-variant-recovered-susceptible) epidemic spreading model with variation characteristic on scale-free networks is proposed in this paper. By using the mean-field theory, the spreading dynamics of the model is analyzed in detail. Then, the basic reproductive number R0 and equilibriums are derived. Studies show that the existence of disease-free equilibrium is determined by the basic reproductive number R0. The relationships between the basic reproductive number R0, the variation characteristic and the topology of the underlying networks are studied in detail. Furthermore, our studies prove the global stability of the disease-free equilibrium, the permanence of epidemic and the global attractivity of endemic equilibrium. Numerical simulations are performed to confirm the analytical results.

  6. Ensemble Forecasts with Useful Skill-Spread Relationships for African meningitis and Asia Streamflow Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopson, T. M.

    2014-12-01

    One potential benefit of an ensemble prediction system (EPS) is its capacity to forecast its own forecast error through the ensemble spread-error relationship. In practice, an EPS is often quite limited in its ability to represent the variable expectation of forecast error through the variable dispersion of the ensemble, and perhaps more fundamentally, in its ability to provide enough variability in the ensembles dispersion to make the skill-spread relationship even potentially useful (irrespective of whether the EPS is well-calibrated or not). In this paper we examine the ensemble skill-spread relationship of an ensemble constructed from the TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) dataset of global forecasts and a combination of multi-model and post-processing approaches. Both of the multi-model and post-processing techniques are based on quantile regression (QR) under a step-wise forward selection framework leading to ensemble forecasts with both good reliability and sharpness. The methodology utilizes the ensemble's ability to self-diagnose forecast instability to produce calibrated forecasts with informative skill-spread relationships. A context for these concepts is provided by assessing the constructed ensemble in forecasting district-level humidity impacting the incidence of meningitis in the meningitis belt of Africa, and in forecasting flooding events in the Brahmaputra and Ganges basins of South Asia.

  7. Spreading Depression, Spreading Depolarizations, and the Cerebral Vasculature

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ayata, Cenk; Lauritzen, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Spreading depression (SD) is a transient wave of near-complete neuronal and glial depolarization associated with massive transmembrane ionic and water shifts. It is evolutionarily conserved in the central nervous systems of a wide variety of species from locust to human. The depolarization spreads...

  8. International business of banking: the pricing example of retail currency spreads

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enn Listra

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the pricing of a specific service of currency exchange based on the retail exchange rate spreads is studied on the example of four international banking groups. The aim of this study is to explore pricing of currency exchange services based on bid-ask differences in some commercial banks and possible price discrimination in this segment of market comparing the behaviour of Western mothers and Eastern daughters in European international banking groups. The retail currency rate spreads in different bank groups and countries are compared with each other. The main results of the study are that statistically significant differences exist in the spreads set by banking groups in different countries. All banking groups in the pilot sample offer more favourable rates in Western countries indicating that the pricing policy of bank groups may be discriminatory. The volatility of spreads over different currencies suggests that different decision making mechanisms may be present in the groups depending on the location of banking unit. The results of this pilot study suggest that further research is needed to understand the extent and the mechanism of findings.

  9. A comparison of chemical compositions of reported altered oceanic crusts and global MORB data set: implication for isotopic heterogeneity of recycled materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimoda, G.; Kogiso, T.

    2017-12-01

    Chemical composition of altered oceanic crust is one of important constraints to delineate chemical heterogeneity of the mantle. Accordingly, many researchers have been studied to determine bulk chemical composition of altered oceanic crust mainly based on chemical compositions of old oceanic crusts at Site 801 and Site 417/418, and young crust at Site 504 (e.g., Staudigel et al., 1996; Bach et al. 2003; Kuo et al., 2016). Their careful estimation provided reliable bulk chemical compositions of these Sites and revealed common geochemical feature of alteration. To assess effect of recycling of altered oceanic crust on chemical evolution of the mantle, it might be meaningful to discuss whether the reported chemical compositions of altered oceanic crusts can represent chemical composition of globally subducted oceanic crusts. Reported chemical compositions of fresh glass or less altered samples from Site 801, 417/418 and 504 were highly depleted compared to that of global MORB reported by Gale et al. (2013), suggesting that there might be sampling bias. Hence, it could be important to consider chemical difference between oceanic crusts of these three Sites and global MORB to discuss effect of recycling of oceanic crust on isotopic heterogeneity of the mantle. It has been suggested that one of controlling factors of chemical variation of oceanic crust is crustal spreading rate because different degree of partial melting affects chemical composition of magmas produced at a mid-ocean ridge. Crustal spreading rate could also affect intensity of alteration. Namely, oceanic crusts produced at slow-spreading ridges may prone to be altered due to existence of larger displacement faults compared to fast spreading ridges which have relatively smooth topography. Thus, it might be significant to evaluate isotopic evolution of oceanic crusts those were produced at different spreading rates. In this presentation, we will provide a possible chemical variation of altered oceanic

  10. Measuring and Controlling the Energy Spread in CEBAF

    CERN Document Server

    Krafft, G A; Dickson, R W; Kazimi, R; Lebedev, V A; Tiefenback, M G

    2000-01-01

    As compared to electron storage rings, one advantage of recirculating linear accelerators is that the beam properties at target are no longer dominated by the equilibrium between quantum radiative diffusion and radiation damping because new beam is continually injected into the accelerator. This allows the energy spread from a CEBAF-type machine to be relatively small; the measured energy spread from CEBAF at 4 GeV is less than 100 parts per million accumulated over times of order several days. In this paper, the various subsystems contributing to the energy spread of a CEBAF-type accelerator are reviewed, as well as the machine diagnostics and controls that are used in CEBAF to ensure that a small energy spread is provided during routine running. Examples of relevant developments are (1) stable short bunches emerging from the injector, (2) precision timing and phasing of the linacs with respect to the centroid of the beam bunches on all passes, (3) implementing 2 kHz sampling rate feedback systems for final ...

  11. A Finsler geodesic spray paradigm for wildfire spread modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Markvorsen, Steen

    2015-01-01

    represents the local fire templates. The ‘paradigm’ part of the present proposal is thus concerned with the corresponding shift of attention from the actual fire-lines to consider instead the geodesic spray - the ‘fire-particles’ - which together, side by side, mold the fire-lines at each instant of time...... and thence eventually constitute the local and global structure of the wildfire spread....

  12. COPING WITH GLOBAL MELTDOWN: INDIA’S EXTERNAL SECTOR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nandita Sethi

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available n 2008 the world economy landed itself in the midst of the most severe financial recession which originated in the developed countries and spread to the developing countries which were hit hard through capital reversals, rising borrowing costs, collapsing world trade and commodity prices, and subsiding remittances. India’s engagement with the global economy became deeper from the 1990s and this made it inevitable to be affected by the global meltdown. This paper attempts to analyze the impact of the global recession on the external sector of the Indian economy. A pre and post recession (2008 analysis is undertaken to see the impact on trade, capital flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves and external debt. The analysis reveals that while India was adversely impacted due to the slowdown in trade, capital flows and outsourcing; the impact has not been as much as in many other Asian economies. The capital flows were soon back, as India seemed like a save haven for funds with reasonable growth and interest rates. The Indian banking and regulatory system has been credited for following prudential norms and India’s huge domestic market and fiscal stimulus have got the economy almost back on track with growth rates looking up again.

  13. Modelling and mapping spread in pest risk analysis: a generic approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kehlenbeck, H.; Robinet, C.; Werf, van der W.; Kriticos, D.; Reynaud, P.; Baker, R.

    2012-01-01

    Assessing the likelihood and magnitude of spread is one of the cornerstones of pest risk analysis (PRA), and is usually based on qualitative expert judgment. This paper proposes a suite of simple ecological models to support risk assessors who also wish to estimate the rate and extent of spread,

  14. A global reference model of Curie-point depths based on EMAG2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chun-Feng; Lu, Yu; Wang, Jian

    2017-03-01

    In this paper, we use a robust inversion algorithm, which we have tested in many regional studies, to obtain the first global model of Curie-point depth (GCDM) from magnetic anomaly inversion based on fractal magnetization. Statistically, the oceanic Curie depth mean is smaller than the continental one, but continental Curie depths are almost bimodal, showing shallow Curie points in some old cratons. Oceanic Curie depths show modifications by hydrothermal circulations in young oceanic lithosphere and thermal perturbations in old oceanic lithosphere. Oceanic Curie depths also show strong dependence on the spreading rate along active spreading centers. Curie depths and heat flow are correlated, following optimal theoretical curves of average thermal conductivities K = ~2.0 W(m°C)-1 for the ocean and K = ~2.5 W(m°C)-1 for the continent. The calculated heat flow from Curie depths and large-interval gridding of measured heat flow all indicate that the global heat flow average is about 70.0 mW/m2, leading to a global heat loss ranging from ~34.6 to 36.6 TW.

  15. Sickness Absenteeism Rate in Iranian Schools during the 2009 Epidemic of Type a Influenza

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pourabbasi, Ata; Shirvani, Mahbubeh Ebrahimnegad; Khashayar, Patricia

    2012-01-01

    Influenza pandemic was a global event in 2009 and intraschool transmission was its main spread method. The present study was designed to evaluate the absenteeism rate during the type A influenza epidemic. Four hundred and eight students from both a guidance school and high school in the Iranian capital were recruited in this retrospective study.…

  16. High-temperature spreading kinetics of metals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rauch, N.

    2005-05-15

    In this PhD work a drop transfer setup combined with high speed photography has been used to analyze the spreading of Ag on polished polycrystalline Mo and single crystalline Mo (110) and (100) substrates. The objective of this work was to unveil the basic phenomena controlling spreading in metal-metal systems. The observed spreading kinetics were compared with current theories of low and high temperature spreading such as a molecular kinetic model and a fluid flow model. Analyses of the data reveal that the molecular model does describe the fastest velocity data well for all the investigated systems. Therefore, the energy which is dissipated during the spreading process is a dissipation at the triple line rather than dissipation due to the viscosity in the liquid. A comparison of the determined free activation energy for wetting of {delta}G95{approx}145kJ/mol with literature values allows the statement that the rate determining step seems to be a surface diffusion of the Ag atoms along the triple line. In order to investigate possible ridge formation, due to local atomic diffusion of atoms of the substrate at the triple during the spreading process, grooving experiments of the polycrystalline Mo were performed to calculate the surface diffusities that will control ridge evolution. The analyses of this work showed that a ridge formation at the fastest reported wetting velocities was not possible if there is no initial perturbation for a ridge. If there was an initial perturbation for a ridge the ridge had to be much smaller than 1 nm in order to be able to move with the liquid font. Therefore ridge formation does not influence the spreading kinetics for the studied system and the chosen conditions. SEM, AFM and TEM investigations of the triple line showed that ridge formation does also not occur at the end of the wetting experiment when the drop is close to equilibrium and the wetting velocity is slow. (orig.)

  17. Flame Spread and Group-Combustion Excitation in Randomly Distributed Droplet Clouds with Low-Volatility Fuel near the Excitation Limit: a Percolation Approach Based on Flame-Spread Characteristics in Microgravity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikami, Masato; Saputro, Herman; Seo, Takehiko; Oyagi, Hiroshi

    2018-03-01

    Stable operation of liquid-fueled combustors requires the group combustion of fuel spray. Our study employs a percolation approach to describe unsteady group-combustion excitation based on findings obtained from microgravity experiments on the flame spread of fuel droplets. We focus on droplet clouds distributed randomly in three-dimensional square lattices with a low-volatility fuel, such as n-decane in room-temperature air, where the pre-vaporization effect is negligible. We also focus on the flame spread in dilute droplet clouds near the group-combustion-excitation limit, where the droplet interactive effect is assumed negligible. The results show that the occurrence probability of group combustion sharply decreases with the increase in mean droplet spacing around a specific value, which is termed the critical mean droplet spacing. If the lattice size is at smallest about ten times as large as the flame-spread limit distance, the flame-spread characteristics are similar to those over an infinitely large cluster. The number density of unburned droplets remaining after completion of burning attained maximum around the critical mean droplet spacing. Therefore, the critical mean droplet spacing is a good index for stable combustion and unburned hydrocarbon. In the critical condition, the flame spreads through complicated paths, and thus the characteristic time scale of flame spread over droplet clouds has a very large value. The overall flame-spread rate of randomly distributed droplet clouds is almost the same as the flame-spread rate of a linear droplet array except over the flame-spread limit.

  18. Implications of the spatial dynamics of fire spread for the bistability of savanna and forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schertzer, E; Staver, A C; Levin, S A

    2015-01-01

    The role of fire in expanding the global distribution of savanna is well recognized. Empirical observations and modeling suggest that fire spread has a threshold response to fuel-layer continuity, which sets up a positive feedback that maintains savanna-forest bistability. However, modeling has so far failed to examine fire spread as a spatial process that interacts with vegetation. Here, we use simple, well-supported assumptions about fire spread as an infection process and its effects on trees to ask whether spatial dynamics qualitatively change the potential for savanna-forest bistability. We show that the spatial effects of fire spread are the fundamental reason that bistability is possible: because fire spread is an infection process, it exhibits a threshold response to fuel continuity followed by a rapid increase in fire size. Other ecological processes affecting fire spread may also contribute including temporal variability in demography or fire spread. Finally, including the potential for spatial aggregation increases the potential both for savanna-forest bistability and for savanna and forest to coexist in a landscape mosaic.

  19. Tempo of Diversification of Global Amphibians: One-Constant Rate, One-Continuous Shift or Multiple-Discrete Shifts?

    OpenAIRE

    Youhua Chen

    2014-01-01

    In this brief report, alternative time-varying diversification rate models were fitted onto the phylogeny of global amphibians by considering one-constant-rate (OCR), one-continuous-shift (OCS) and multiplediscrete- shifts (MDS) situations. The OCS diversification model was rejected by γ statistic (γ=-5.556, p⁄ 0.001), implying the existence of shifting diversification rates for global amphibian phylogeny. Through model selection, MDS diversification model outperformed OCS and OCR...

  20. A framework for predicting global silicate weathering and CO2 drawdown rates over geologic time-scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilley, George E; Porder, Stephen

    2008-11-04

    Global silicate weathering drives long-time-scale fluctuations in atmospheric CO(2). While tectonics, climate, and rock-type influence silicate weathering, it is unclear how these factors combine to drive global rates. Here, we explore whether local erosion rates, GCM-derived dust fluxes, temperature, and water balance can capture global variation in silicate weathering. Our spatially explicit approach predicts 1.9-4.6 x 10(13) mols of Si weathered globally per year, within a factor of 4-10 of estimates of global silicate fluxes derived from riverine measurements. Similarly, our watershed-based estimates are within a factor of 4-18 (mean of 5.3) of the silica fluxes measured in the world's ten largest rivers. Eighty percent of total global silicate weathering product traveling as dissolved load occurs within a narrow range (0.01-0.5 mm/year) of erosion rates. Assuming each mol of Mg or Ca reacts with 1 mol of CO(2), 1.5-3.3 x 10(8) tons/year of CO(2) is consumed by silicate weathering, consistent with previously published estimates. Approximately 50% of this drawdown occurs in the world's active mountain belts, emphasizing the importance of tectonic regulation of global climate over geologic timescales.

  1. Global spread of mouse-adapted Staphylococcus aureus lineages CC1, CC15, and CC88 among mouse breeding facilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mrochen, Daniel M; Grumann, Dorothee; Schulz, Daniel; Gumz, Janine; Trübe, Patricia; Pritchett-Corning, Kathleen; Johnson, Sarah; Nicklas, Werner; Kirsch, Petra; Martelet, Karine; Brandt, Jens van den; Berg, Sabine; Bröker, Barbara M; Wiles, Siouxsie; Holtfreter, Silva

    2017-11-20

    We previously reported that laboratory mice from all global vendors are frequently colonized with Staphylococcus aureus (S. aureus). Genotyping of a snap sample of murine S. aureus isolates from Charles River, US, showed that mice were predominantly colonized with methicillin-sensitive CC88 strains. Here, we expanded our view and investigated whether laboratory mice from other global animal facilities are colonized with similar strains or novel S. aureus lineages, and whether the murine S. aureus isolates show features of host adaptation. In total, we genotyped 230 S. aureus isolates from various vendor facilities of laboratory mice around the globe (Charles River facilities in the USA, Canada, France, and Germany; another US facility) and university- or company-associated breeding facilities in Germany, China and New Zealand. Spa typing was performed to analyse the clonal relationship of the isolates. Moreover, multiplex PCRs were performed for human-specific virulence factors, the immune-evasion cluster (IEC) and superantigen genes (SAg). We found a total of 58 different spa types that clustered into 15 clonal complexes (CCs). Three of these S. aureus lineages had spread globally among laboratory mice and accounted for three quarters of the isolates: CC1 (13.5%), CC15 (14.3%), and CC88 (47.0%). Compared to human colonizing isolates of the same lineages, the murine isolates frequently lacked IEC genes and SAg genes on mobile genetic elements, implying long-term adaptation to the murine host. In conclusion, laboratory mice from various vendors are colonized with host-adapted S. aureus-strains of a few lineages, predominantly the CC88 lineage. S. aureus researchers must be cautioned that S. aureus colonization might be a relevant confounder in infection and vaccination studies and are therefore advised to screen their mice before experimentation. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier GmbH.. All rights reserved.

  2. Simulation of the Universal-Time Diurnal Variation of the Global Electric Circuit Charging Rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackerras, D.; Darvenzia, M.; Orville, R. E.; Williams, E. R.; Goodman, S. J.

    1999-01-01

    A global lightning model that includes diurnal and annual lightning variation, and total flash density versus latitude for each major land and ocean, has been used as the basis for simulating the global electric circuit charging rate. A particular objective has been to reconcile the difference in amplitude ratios [AR=(max-min)/mean] between global lightning diurnal variation (AR approx. = 0.8) and the diurnal variation of typical atmospheric potential gradient curves (AR approx. = 0.35). A constraint on the simulation is that the annual mean charging current should be about 1000 A. The global lightning model shows that negative ground flashes can contribute, at most, about 10-15% of the required current. For the purpose of the charging rate simulation, it was assumed that each ground flash contributes 5 C to the charging process. It was necessary to assume that all electrified clouds contribute to charging by means other than lightning, that the total flash rate can serve as an indirect indicator of the rate of charge transfer, and that oceanic electrified clouds contribute to charging even though they are relatively inefficient in producing lightning. It was also found necessary to add a diurnally invariant charging current component. By trial and error it was found that charging rate diurnal variation curves in Universal time (UT) could be produced with amplitude ratios and general shapes similar to those of the potential gradient diurnal variation curves measured over ocean and arctic regions during voyages of the Carnegie Institute research vessels.

  3. A Comparison of Flame Spread Characteristics over Solids in Concurrent Flow Using Two Different Pyrolysis Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ya-Ting Tseng

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Two solid pyrolysis models are employed in a concurrent-flow flame spread model to compare the flame structure and spreading characteristics. The first is a zeroth-order surface pyrolysis, and the second is a first-order in-depth pyrolysis. Comparisons are made for samples when the spread rate reaches a steady value and the flame reaches a constant length. The computed results show (1 the mass burning rate distributions at the solid surface are qualitatively different near the flame (pyrolysis base region, (2 the first-order pyrolysis model shows that the propagating flame leaves unburnt solid fuel, and (3 the flame length and spread rate dependence on sample thickness are different for the two cases.

  4. Estimates of global HIV/AIDS mortality, prevalence and incidence rates, and their association with the Human Development Index

    OpenAIRE

    Kamyar Mansori; Erfan Ayubi; Fatemeh Khosravi Shadmani; Shiva Mansouri Hanis; Somayeh Khazaei; Mohadeseh Sani; Yousef Moradi; Salman Khazaei; Abolfazl Mohammadbeigi

    2017-01-01

    Background: HIV/AIDS is one of greatest global public health concerns today due to the high incidence, prevalence and mortality rates. The aim of this research was investigate and estimate the global HIV/AIDS mortality, prevalence and incidence rates, and explore their associations with the Human Development Index. Methods: The global age-standardized rates of mortality, prevalence and incidence of HIV/AIDS were obtained from the UNAIDS for different countries in 2015. The human developm...

  5. Epidemiology meets econometrics: using time-series analysis to observe the impact of bed occupancy rates on the spread of multidrug-resistant bacteria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaier, K; Meyer, E; Dettenkofer, M; Frank, U

    2010-10-01

    Two multivariate time-series analyses were carried out to identify the impact of bed occupancy rates, turnover intervals and the average length of hospital stay on the spread of multidrug-resistant bacteria in a teaching hospital. Epidemiological data on the incidences of meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL)-producing bacteria were collected. Time-series of bed occupancy rates, turnover intervals and the average length of stay were tested for inclusion in the models as independent variables. Incidence was defined as nosocomial cases per 1000 patient-days. This included all patients infected or colonised with MRSA/ESBL more than 48h after admission. Between January 2003 and July 2008, a mean incidence of 0.15 nosocomial MRSA cases was identified. ESBL was not included in the surveillance until January 2005. Between January 2005 and July 2008 the mean incidence of nosocomial ESBL was also 0.15 cases per 1000 patient-days. The two multivariate models demonstrate a temporal relationship between bed occupancy rates in general wards and the incidence of nosocomial MRSA and ESBL. Similarly, the temporal relationship between the monthly average length of stay in intensive care units (ICUs) and the incidence of nosocomial MRSA and ESBL was demonstrated. Overcrowding in general wards and long periods of ICU stay were identified as factors influencing the spread of multidrug-resistant bacteria in hospital settings. Copyright 2010 The Hospital Infection Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Dynamic wetting and spreading and the role of topography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McHale, Glen; Newton, Michael I; Shirtcliffe, Neil J

    2009-01-01

    The spreading of a droplet of a liquid on a smooth solid surface is often described by the Hoffman-de Gennes law, which relates the edge speed, v e , to the dynamic and equilibrium contact angles θ and θ e through v e ∝θ(θ 2 -θ e 2 ). When the liquid wets the surface completely and the equilibrium contact angle vanishes, the edge speed is proportional to the cube of the dynamic contact angle. When the droplets are non-volatile this law gives rise to simple power laws with time for the contact angle and other parameters in both the capillary and gravity dominated regimes. On a textured surface, the equilibrium state of a droplet is strongly modified due to the amplification of the surface chemistry induced tendencies by the topography. The most common example is the conversion of hydrophobicity into superhydrophobicity. However, when the surface chemistry favors partial wetting, topography can result in a droplet spreading completely. A further, frequently overlooked consequence of topography is that the rate at which an out-of-equilibrium droplet spreads should also be modified. In this report, we review ideas related to the idea of topography induced wetting and consider how this may relate to dynamic wetting and the rate of droplet spreading. We consider the effect of the Wenzel and Cassie-Baxter equations on the driving forces and discuss how these may modify power laws for spreading. We relate the ideas to both the hydrodynamic viscous dissipation model and the molecular-kinetic theory of spreading. This suggests roughness and solid surface fraction modified Hoffman-de Gennes laws relating the edge speed to the dynamic and equilibrium contact angle. We also consider the spreading of small droplets and stripes of non-volatile liquids in the capillary regime and large droplets in the gravity regime. In the case of small non-volatile droplets spreading completely, a roughness modified Tanner's law giving the dependence of dynamic contact angle on time is

  7. Experimental study on the effects of AC electric fields on flame spreading over polyethylene-insulated electric-wire

    KAUST Repository

    Jin, Young Kyu

    2010-11-01

    In this present study, we experimentally investigated the effects of electric fields on the characteristics of flames spreading over electric-wires with AC fields. The dependence of the rate at which a flame spreads over polyethylene-insulated wires on the frequency and amplitude of the applied AC electric field was examined. The spreading of the flame can be categorized into linear spreading and non-linearly accelerated spreading of flame. This categorization is based on the axial distribution of the field strength of the applied electric field. The rate at which the flame spreads is highly dependent on the inclined direction of the wire fire. It could be possible to explain the spreading of the flame on the basis of thermal balance. © 2010 The Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers.

  8. Cost analysis and biological ramifications for implementing the gypsy moth Slow the Spread Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patrick C. Tobin

    2008-01-01

    The gypsy moth Slow the Spread Program aims to reduce the rate of gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar (L.), spread into new areas in the United States. The annual budget for this program has ranged from $10-13 million. Changes in funding levels can have important ramifications to the implementation of this program, and consequently affect the rate of gypsy...

  9. Global optimization numerical strategies for rate-independent processes

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Benešová, Barbora

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 50, č. 2 (2011), s. 197-220 ISSN 0925-5001 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP201/10/0357 Grant - others:GA MŠk(CZ) LC06052 Program:LC Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z20760514 Keywords : rate-independent processes * numerical global optimization * energy estimates based algorithm Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 1.196, year: 2011 http://math.hnue.edu.vn/portal/rss.viewpage.php?id=0000037780&ap=L3BvcnRhbC9ncmFiYmVyLnBocD9jYXRpZD0xMDEyJnBhZ2U9Mg==

  10. Roles of the spreading scope and effectiveness in spreading dynamics on multiplex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ming; Liu, Run-Ran; Peng, Dan; Jia, Chun-Xiao; Wang, Bing-Hong

    2018-02-01

    Comparing with single networks, the multiplex networks bring two main effects on the spreading process among individuals. First, the pathogen or information can be transmitted to more individuals through different layers at one time, which enlarges the spreading scope. Second, through different layers, an individual can also transmit the pathogen or information to the same individuals more than once at one time, which makes the spreading more effective. To understand the different roles of the spreading scope and effectiveness, we propose an epidemic model on multiplex networks with link overlapping, where the spreading effectiveness of each interaction as well as the variety of channels (spreading scope) can be controlled by the number of overlapping links. We find that for Poisson degree distribution, increasing the epidemic scope (the first effect) is more efficient than enhancing epidemic probability (the second effect) to facilitate the spreading process. However, for power-law degree distribution, the effects of the two factors on the spreading dynamics become complicated. Enhancing epidemic probability makes pathogen or rumor easier to outbreak in a finite system. But after that increasing epidemic scopes is still more effective for a wide spreading. Theoretical results along with reasonable explanation for these phenomena are all given in this paper, which indicates that the epidemic scope could play an important role in the spreading dynamics.

  11. Drop Spreading with Random Viscosity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Feng; Jensen, Oliver

    2016-11-01

    Airway mucus acts as a barrier to protect the lung. However as a biological material, its physical properties are known imperfectly and can be spatially heterogeneous. In this study we assess the impact of these uncertainties on the rate of spreading of a drop (representing an inhaled aerosol) over a mucus film. We model the film as Newtonian, having a viscosity that depends linearly on the concentration of a passive solute (a crude proxy for mucin proteins). Given an initial random solute (and hence viscosity) distribution, described as a Gaussian random field with a given correlation structure, we seek to quantify the uncertainties in outcomes as the drop spreads. Using lubrication theory, we describe the spreading of the drop in terms of a system of coupled nonlinear PDEs governing the evolution of film height and the vertically-averaged solute concentration. We perform Monte Carlo simulations to predict the variability in the drop centre location and width (1D) or area (2D). We show how simulation results are well described (at much lower computational cost) by a low-order model using a weak disorder expansion. Our results show for example how variability in the drop location is a non-monotonic function of the solute correlation length increases. Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council.

  12. Autopsy on a dead spreading center: The Phoenix Ridge, Drake Passage, Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Livermore, Roy; Balanyá, Juan Carlos; Maldonado, Andrés; Martínez, José Miguel; Rodríguez-Fernández, José; Sanz de Galdeano, Carlos; Galindo Zaldívar, Jesús; Jabaloy, Antonio; Barnolas, Antonio; Somoza, Luis; Hernández-Molina, Javier; Suriñach, Emma; Viseras, César

    2000-07-01

    New bathymetric and magnetic anomaly data from the Phoenix Ridge, Antarctica, show that extinction of all three remaining segments occurred at the time of magnetic chron C2A (3.3 ± 0.2 Ma), synchronous with a ridge-trench collision south of the Hero Fracture Zone. This implies that the ultimate cause of extinction was a change in plate boundary forces occasioned by this collision. Spreading rates slowed abruptly at the time of chron C4 (7.8 ± 0.3 Ma), probably as a result of extinction of the West Scotia Ridge, which would have led to an increase in slip rate and transpressional stress across the Shackleton Fracture Zone. Spectacular, high-relief ridges flanking the extinct spreading center, mapped for the first time using multibeam swath bathymetry, are interpreted as a consequence of a reduction in spreading rate, involving a temporary magma oversupply immediately prior to extinction.

  13. Delay-induced rebounds in CO2 emissions and critical time-scales to meet global warming targets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manoli, Gabriele; Katul, Gabriel G.; Marani, Marco

    2016-12-01

    While climate science debates are focused on the attainment of peak anthropogenic CO2 emissions and policy tools to reduce peak temperatures, the human-energy-climate system can hold "rebound" surprises beyond this peak. Following the second industrial revolution, global per capita CO2 emissions (cc) experienced a punctuated growth of about 100% every 60 years, mainly attributable to technological development and its global spread. A model of the human-energy-climate system capable of reproducing past punctuated dynamics shows that rebounds in global CO2 emissions emerge due to delays intrinsic to the diffusion of innovations. Such intrinsic delays in the adoption and spread of low-carbon emitting technologies, together with projected population growth, upset the warming target set by the Paris Agreement. To avoid rebounds and their negative climate effects, model calculations show that the diffusion of climate-friendly technologies must occur with lags one-order of magnitude shorter (i.e., ˜6 years) than the characteristic timescale of past punctuated growth in cc. Radically new strategies to globally implement the technological advances at unprecedented rates are needed if the current emission goals are to be achieved.

  14. Human mobility and time spent at destination: impact on spatial epidemic spreading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poletto, Chiara; Tizzoni, Michele; Colizza, Vittoria

    2013-12-07

    Host mobility plays a fundamental role in the spatial spread of infectious diseases. Previous theoretical works based on the integration of network theory into the metapopulation framework have shown that the heterogeneities that characterize real mobility networks favor the propagation of epidemics. Nevertheless, the studies conducted so far assumed the mobility process to be either Markovian (in which the memory of the origin of each traveler is lost) or non-Markovian with a fixed traveling time scale (in which individuals travel to a destination and come back at a constant rate). Available statistics however show that the time spent by travelers at destination is characterized by wide fluctuations, ranging from a single day up to several months. Such varying length of stay crucially affects the chance and duration of mixing events among hosts and may therefore have a strong impact on the spread of an emerging disease. Here, we present an analytical and a computational study of epidemic processes on a complex subpopulation network where travelers have memory of their origin and spend a heterogeneously distributed time interval at their destination. Through analytical calculations and numerical simulations we show that the heterogeneity of the length of stay alters the expression of the threshold between local outbreak and global invasion, and, moreover, it changes the epidemic behavior of the system in case of a global outbreak. Additionally, our theoretical framework allows us to study the effect of changes in the traveling behavior in response to the infection, by considering a scenario in which sick individuals do not leave their home location. Finally, we compare the results of our non-Markovian framework with those obtained with a classic Markovian approach and find relevant differences between the two, in the estimate of the epidemic invasion potential, as well as of the timing and the pattern of its spatial spread. These results highlight the importance of

  15. A global reference for caesarean section rates (C-Model): a multicountry cross-sectional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Souza, J P; Betran, A P; Dumont, A; de Mucio, B; Gibbs Pickens, C M; Deneux-Tharaux, C; Ortiz-Panozo, E; Sullivan, E; Ota, E; Togoobaatar, G; Carroli, G; Knight, H; Zhang, J; Cecatti, J G; Vogel, J P; Jayaratne, K; Leal, M C; Gissler, M; Morisaki, N; Lack, N; Oladapo, O T; Tunçalp, Ö; Lumbiganon, P; Mori, R; Quintana, S; Costa Passos, A D; Marcolin, A C; Zongo, A; Blondel, B; Hernández, B; Hogue, C J; Prunet, C; Landman, C; Ochir, C; Cuesta, C; Pileggi-Castro, C; Walker, D; Alves, D; Abalos, E; Moises, Ecd; Vieira, E M; Duarte, G; Perdona, G; Gurol-Urganci, I; Takahiko, K; Moscovici, L; Campodonico, L; Oliveira-Ciabati, L; Laopaiboon, M; Danansuriya, M; Nakamura-Pereira, M; Costa, M L; Torloni, M R; Kramer, M R; Borges, P; Olkhanud, P B; Pérez-Cuevas, R; Agampodi, S B; Mittal, S; Serruya, S; Bataglia, V; Li, Z; Temmerman, M; Gülmezoglu, A M

    2016-02-01

    To generate a global reference for caesarean section (CS) rates at health facilities. Cross-sectional study. Health facilities from 43 countries. Thirty eight thousand three hundred and twenty-four women giving birth from 22 countries for model building and 10,045,875 women giving birth from 43 countries for model testing. We hypothesised that mathematical models could determine the relationship between clinical-obstetric characteristics and CS. These models generated probabilities of CS that could be compared with the observed CS rates. We devised a three-step approach to generate the global benchmark of CS rates at health facilities: creation of a multi-country reference population, building mathematical models, and testing these models. Area under the ROC curves, diagnostic odds ratio, expected CS rate, observed CS rate. According to the different versions of the model, areas under the ROC curves suggested a good discriminatory capacity of C-Model, with summary estimates ranging from 0.832 to 0.844. The C-Model was able to generate expected CS rates adjusted for the case-mix of the obstetric population. We have also prepared an e-calculator to facilitate use of C-Model (www.who.int/reproductivehealth/publications/maternal_perinatal_health/c-model/en/). This article describes the development of a global reference for CS rates. Based on maternal characteristics, this tool was able to generate an individualised expected CS rate for health facilities or groups of health facilities. With C-Model, obstetric teams, health system managers, health facilities, health insurance companies, and governments can produce a customised reference CS rate for assessing use (and overuse) of CS. The C-Model provides a customized benchmark for caesarean section rates in health facilities and systems. © 2015 World Health Organization; licensed by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

  16. Credit Rating As a Factor of Stability in the Global Capital Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ismail Musabegović

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Credit rating has an outstanding importance on the capital market. Opinions and assessments of rating agencies help us to improve growth, stability and efficiency of international and domestic markets, which now include over 80 trillion dollars of rated bonds and other securities with the fixed income. The contribution of the credit agencies to the market stability and efficiency is reflected in their ability to provide accurate, clear and reliable assessments of the solvency of participants on the financial markets. An adequate and proper risk assessment of securities contributes to stability. In order to achieve a given goal and to satisfy its purpose, the assessments should be based on a fundamental understanding of the key components of the credit risk. Also, in order to ensure a reliable framework for making investment decisions, the rating agencies are obliged to offer and to provide a wide range of securities, which are based on a global comparability of rating symbols and onthe support given by the credit rating assignment committee and by the other relevant decision making bodies. Markets for structured products could not have developed without the quality assurance provided by CRAs. When analyzing a securitization program CRAs examine legal and structural protections provided to investors. Since the globalization is an inevitable phenomenon in today’s world the importance of the credit rating becomes more noticeable. On the other hand, the rating agencies have an obligation to reanalyze their decision making models in order to contribute tothe reliability of the evaluation.

  17. Effects of q-profile structure on turbulence spreading: A fluctuation intensity transport analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yi, S.; Kwon, J. M. [National Fusion Research Institute, Eoeun-dong, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-333 (Korea, Republic of); Diamond, P. H. [National Fusion Research Institute, Eoeun-dong, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-333 (Korea, Republic of); Center for Astrophysics and Space Sciences and Department of Physics, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California 92093-0429 (United States); Hahm, T. S. [Department of Nuclear Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul 151-744 (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-09-15

    This paper studies effects of q-profile structure on turbulence spreading. It reports results of numerical experiments using global gyrokinetic simulations. We examine propagation of turbulence, triggered by an identical linear instability in a source region, into an adjacent, linearly stable region with variable q-profile. The numerical experiments are designed so as to separate the physics of turbulence spreading from that of linear stability. The strength of turbulence spreading is measured by the penetration depth of turbulence. Dynamics of spreading are elucidated by fluctuation intensity balance analysis, using a model intensity evolution equation which retains nonlinear diffusion and damping, and linear growth. It is found that turbulence spreading is strongly affected by magnetic shear s, but is hardly altered by the safety factor q itself. There is an optimal range of modest magnetic shear which maximizes turbulence spreading. For high to modest shear values, the spreading is enhanced by the increase of the mode correlation length with decreasing magnetic shear. However, the efficiency of spreading drops for sufficiently low magnetic shear even though the mode correlation length is comparable to that for the case of optimal magnetic shear. The reduction of spreading is attributed to the increase in time required for the requisite nonlinear mode-mode interactions. The effect of increased interaction time dominates that of increased mode correlation length. Our findings of the reduction of spreading and the increase in interaction time at weak magnetic shear are consistent with the well-known benefit of weak or reversed magnetic shear for core confinement enhancement. Weak shear is shown to promote locality, as well as stability.

  18. Spread effects - methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    Diffusion of technology, environmental effects and rebound effects are the principal effects from the funding of renewable energy and energy economising. It is difficult to estimate the impact of the spread effects both prior to the measures are implemented and after the measures are carried out. Statistical methods can be used to estimate the spread effects, but they are insecure and always need to be complemented with qualitative and subjective evaluations. It is more adequate to evaluate potential spread effects from market and market data surveillance for a selection of technologies and parties. Based on this information qualitative indicators for spread effects can be constructed and used both ex ante and ex post (ml)

  19. Spread spectrum mobile communication experiment using ETS-V satellite

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ikegami, Tetsushi; Suzuki, Ryutaro; Kadowaki, Naoto; Taira, Shinichi; Sato, Nobuyasu

    1990-01-01

    The spread spectrum technique is attractive for application to mobile satellite communications, because of its random access capability, immunity to inter-system interference, and robustness to overloading. A novel direct sequence spread spectrum communication equipment is developed for land mobile satellite applications. The equipment is developed based on a matched filter technique to improve the initial acquisition performance. The data rate is 2.4 kilobits per sec. and the PN clock rate is 2.4552 mega-Hz. This equipment also has a function of measuring the multipath delay profile of land mobile satellite channel, making use of a correlation property of a PN code. This paper gives an outline of the equipment and the field test results with ETS-V satellite.

  20. Modeling exchange rate volatility in CEEC countries: Impact of global financial and European sovereign debt crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miletić Siniša

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to envisage the impact of global financial (GFC and European sovereign debt crisis (ESDC on foreign exchange markets of emerg- ing countries in Central and Eastern Europe CEEC countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, poland and Serbia. The daily returns of exchange rates on Czech Republic koruna (CZK, Hungarian forint (HuF, Romanian lea (RoL, polish zloty (pLZ and Serbian dinar (RSD, all against the Euro are analyzed during the period from 3rd January 2000 to15th April 2013, in respect. To examine the impact of global financial crisis and European sovereign debt crisis, dummy variables were adopted. overall results imply that global financial crisis has no impact on exchange rate returns in selected CEEC countries, while European sovereign debt crisis inf luencing in depreciation of polish zloty by 8% and Roma- nian lea by 6%. obtained results by our calculation, imply that global financial crisis increased enhanced volatility on exchange rate returns of Czech koruna, Romanian lea and polish zloty. Moreover, results of empirical analysis imply that this impact has the strongest inf luence in volatility on exchange rate returns of polish zloty.

  1. Global observation of Omori-law decay in the rate of triggered earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parsons, T.

    2001-12-01

    Triggered earthquakes can be large, damaging, and lethal as evidenced by the 1999 shocks in Turkey and the 2001 events in El Salvador. In this study, earthquakes with M greater than 7.0 from the Harvard CMT catalog are modeled as dislocations to calculate shear stress changes on subsequent earthquake rupture planes near enough to be affected. About 61% of earthquakes that occurred near the main shocks are associated with calculated shear stress increases, while ~39% are associated with shear stress decreases. If earthquakes associated with calculated shear stress increases are interpreted as triggered, then such events make up at least 8% of the CMT catalog. Globally, triggered earthquakes obey an Omori-law rate decay that lasts between ~7-11 years after the main shock. Earthquakes associated with calculated shear stress increases occur at higher rates than background up to 240 km away from the main-shock centroid. Earthquakes triggered by smaller quakes (foreshocks) also obey Omori's law, which is one of the few time-predictable patterns evident in the global occurrence of earthquakes. These observations indicate that earthquake probability calculations which include interactions from previous shocks should incorporate a transient Omori-law decay with time. In addition, a very simple model using the observed global rate change with time and spatial distribution of triggered earthquakes can be applied to immediately assess the likelihood of triggered earthquakes following large events, and can be in place until more sophisticated analyses are conducted.

  2. Synergistic interactions promote behavior spreading and alter phase transitions on multiplex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Quan-Hui; Wang, Wei; Cai, Shi-Min; Tang, Ming; Lai, Ying-Cheng

    2018-02-01

    Synergistic interactions are ubiquitous in the real world. Recent studies have revealed that, for a single-layer network, synergy can enhance spreading and even induce an explosive contagion. There is at the present a growing interest in behavior spreading dynamics on multiplex networks. What is the role of synergistic interactions in behavior spreading in such networked systems? To address this question, we articulate a synergistic behavior spreading model on a double layer network, where the key manifestation of the synergistic interactions is that the adoption of one behavior by a node in one layer enhances its probability of adopting the behavior in the other layer. A general result is that synergistic interactions can greatly enhance the spreading of the behaviors in both layers. A remarkable phenomenon is that the interactions can alter the nature of the phase transition associated with behavior adoption or spreading dynamics. In particular, depending on the transmission rate of one behavior in a network layer, synergistic interactions can lead to a discontinuous (first-order) or a continuous (second-order) transition in the adoption scope of the other behavior with respect to its transmission rate. A surprising two-stage spreading process can arise: due to synergy, nodes having adopted one behavior in one layer adopt the other behavior in the other layer and then prompt the remaining nodes in this layer to quickly adopt the behavior. Analytically, we develop an edge-based compartmental theory and perform a bifurcation analysis to fully understand, in the weak synergistic interaction regime where the dynamical correlation between the network layers is negligible, the role of the interactions in promoting the social behavioral spreading dynamics in the whole system.

  3. Rumor spreading model with consideration of forgetting mechanism: A case of online blogging LiveJournal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Laijun; Wang, Qin; Cheng, Jingjing; Chen, Yucheng; Wang, Jiajia; Huang, Wei

    2011-07-01

    Rumor is an important form of social interaction, and its spreading has a significant impact on people’s lives. In the age of Web, people are using electronic media more frequently than ever before, and blog has become one of the main online social interactions. Therefore, it is essential to learn the evolution mechanism of rumor spreading on homogeneous network in consideration of the forgetting mechanism of spreaders. Here we study a rumor spreading model on an online social blogging platform called LiveJournal. In comparison with the Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model, we provide a more detailed and realistic description of rumor spreading process with combination of forgetting mechanism and the SIR model of epidemics. A mathematical model has been presented and numerical solutions of the model were used to analyze the impact factors of rumor spreading, such as the average degree, forgetting rate and stifling rate. Our results show that there exist a threshold of the average degree of LiveJournal and above which the influence of rumor reaches saturation. Forgetting mechanism and stifling rate exert great influence on rumor spreading on online social network. The analysis results can guide people’s behaviors in view of the theoretical and practical aspects.

  4. Global Delivery Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manning, Stephan; Møller Larsen, Marcus; Bharati, Pratyush

    -zone spread allowing for 24/7 service delivery and access to resources. Based on comprehensive data we show that providers are likely to establish GDM configurations when clients value access to globally distributed talent pools and speed of service delivery, and in particular when services are highly...

  5. Collective behavior in the spatial spreading of obesity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallos, Lazaros K.; Barttfeld, Pablo; Havlin, Shlomo; Sigman, Mariano; Makse, Hernán A.

    2012-06-01

    Obesity prevalence is increasing in many countries at alarming levels. A difficulty in the conception of policies to reverse these trends is the identification of the drivers behind the obesity epidemics. Here, we implement a spatial spreading analysis to investigate whether obesity shows spatial correlations, revealing the effect of collective and global factors acting above individual choices. We find a regularity in the spatial fluctuations of their prevalence revealed by a pattern of scale-free long-range correlations. The fluctuations are anomalous, deviating in a fundamental way from the weaker correlations found in the underlying population distribution indicating the presence of collective behavior, i.e., individual habits may have negligible influence in shaping the patterns of spreading. Interestingly, we find the same scale-free correlations in economic activities associated with food production. These results motivate future interventions to investigate the causality of this relation providing guidance for the implementation of preventive health policies.

  6. Opposed-flow Flame Spread Over Solid Fuels in Microgravity: the Effect of Confined Spaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Shuangfeng; Hu, Jun; Xiao, Yuan; Ren, Tan; Zhu, Feng

    2015-09-01

    Effects of confined spaces on flame spread over thin solid fuels in a low-speed opposing flow is investigated by combined use of microgravity experiments and computations. The flame behaviors are observed to depend strongly on the height of the flow tunnel. In particular, a non-monotonic trend of flame spread rate versus tunnel height is found, with the fastest flame occurring in the 3 cm high tunnel. The flame length and the total heat release rate from the flame also change with tunnel height, and a faster flame has a larger length and a higher heat release rate. The computation analyses indicate that a confined space modifies the flow around the spreading flame. The confinement restricts the thermal expansion and accelerates the flow in the streamwise direction. Above the flame, the flow deflects back from the tunnel wall. This inward flow pushes the flame towards the fuel surface, and increases oxygen transport into the flame. Such a flow modification explains the variations of flame spread rate and flame length with tunnel height. The present results suggest that the confinement effects on flame behavior in microgravity should be accounted to assess accurately the spacecraft fire hazard.

  7. Asymptotic behaviour for a system describing epidemics with migration and spatial spread of infection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirane, M.; Kouachi, S.

    1991-08-01

    A parabolic system with linear interactions is considered with specific applications to the spread of infectious diseases. Using a Payne-type functional we prove the global existence of a unique solution and analyze its large time behaviour. (author). 14 refs

  8. Measuring the Spread Components of Oil and Gas Companies from CDS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juliano Ribeiro de Almeida

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we use the information from the credit default swap market to measure the main components of the oil and gas companies spread. Using nearly 20 companies of this industry with different ratings and nearly 80 bonds, the result was that the majority of the oil and gas spread is due to the default risk. We also find that the spread component related to the non-default is strongly associated with some liquidity measures of bond markets, what suggest that liquidity has a very important role in the valuation of fixed income assets. On the other side, we do not find evidence that the non-default component of the spread is related to tax matters.

  9. Phase Transitions of an Epidemic Spreading Model in Small-World Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hua, Da-Yin; Gao, Ke

    2011-06-01

    We propose a modified susceptible-infected-refractory-susceptible (SIRS) model to investigate the global oscillations of the epidemic spreading in Watts—Strogatz (WS) small-world networks. It is found that when an individual immunity does not change or decays slowly in an immune period, the system can exhibit complex transition from an infecting stationary state to a large amplitude sustained oscillation or an absorbing state with no infection. When the immunity decays rapidly in the immune period, the transition to the global oscillation disappears and there is no oscillation. Furthermore, based on the spatio-temporal evolution patterns and the phase diagram, it is disclosed that a long immunity period takes an important role in the emergence of the global oscillation in small-world networks.

  10. Graphene as transparent and current spreading electrode in silicon solar cell

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Behura, Sanjay K., E-mail: sanjaybehura@gmail.com; Nayak, Sasmita; Jani, Omkar [Solar Energy Research Wing, Gujarat Energy Research and Management Institute - Research, Innovation and Incubation Centre, Gandhinagar 382007, Gujarat (India); Mahala, Pramila [School of Solar Energy, Pandit Deendayal Petroleum University, Gandhinagar 382007, Gujarat (India)

    2014-11-15

    Fabricated bi-layer graphene (BLG) has been studied as transparent and current spreading electrode (TCSE) for silicon solar cell, using TCAD-Silvaco 2D simulation. We have carried out comparative study using both Ag grids and BLG as current spreading electrode (CSE) and TCSE, respectively. Our study reveals that BLG based solar cell shows better efficiency of 24.85% than Ag-based cell (21.44%), in all of the critical aspects, including generation rate, recombination rate, electric field, potential and quantum efficiency. Further BLG based cell exhibits pronounce rectifying behavior, low saturation current, and good turn-on voltage while studying in dark.

  11. Combinatorics of spreads and parallelisms

    CERN Document Server

    Johnson, Norman

    2010-01-01

    Partitions of Vector Spaces Quasi-Subgeometry Partitions Finite Focal-SpreadsGeneralizing André SpreadsThe Going Up Construction for Focal-SpreadsSubgeometry Partitions Subgeometry and Quasi-Subgeometry Partitions Subgeometries from Focal-SpreadsExtended André SubgeometriesKantor's Flag-Transitive DesignsMaximal Additive Partial SpreadsSubplane Covered Nets and Baer Groups Partial Desarguesian t-Parallelisms Direct Products of Affine PlanesJha-Johnson SL(2,

  12. SPREADING LAYERS IN ACCRETING OBJECTS: ROLE OF ACOUSTIC WAVES FOR ANGULAR MOMENTUM TRANSPORT, MIXING, AND THERMODYNAMICS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Philippov, Alexander A.; Rafikov, Roman R.; Stone, James M., E-mail: sashaph@princeton.edu [Department of Astrophysical Sciences, Princeton University, Ivy Lane, Princeton, NJ 08540 (United States)

    2016-01-20

    Disk accretion at a high rate onto a white dwarf (WD) or a neutron star has been suggested to result in the formation of a spreading layer (SL)—a belt-like structure on the object's surface, in which the accreted matter steadily spreads in the poleward (meridional) direction while spinning down. To assess its basic characteristics, we perform two-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations of supersonic SLs in the relevant morphology with a simple prescription for cooling. We demonstrate that supersonic shear naturally present at the base of the SL inevitably drives sonic instability that gives rise to large-scale acoustic modes governing the evolution of the SL. These modes dominate the transport of momentum and energy, which is intrinsically global and cannot be characterized via some form of local effective viscosity (e.g., α-viscosity). The global nature of the wave-driven transport should have important implications for triggering Type I X-ray bursts in low-mass X-ray binaries. The nonlinear evolution of waves into a system of shocks drives effective rearrangement (sensitively depending on thermodynamical properties of the flow) and deceleration of the SL, which ultimately becomes transonic and susceptible to regular Kelvin–Helmholtz instability. We interpret this evolution in terms of the global structure of the SL and suggest that mixing of the SL material with the underlying stellar fluid should become effective only at intermediate latitudes on the accreting object's surface, where the flow has decelerated appreciably. In the near-equatorial regions the transport is dominated by acoustic waves and mixing is less efficient. We speculate that this latitudinal nonuniformity of mixing in accreting WDs may be linked to the observed bipolar morphology of classical nova ejecta.

  13. Seafloor spreading magnetic anomalies south off Sri Lanka

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Desa, M.; Ramana, M.V.; Ramprasad, T.

    Cretaceous is estimated to have evolved with variable half-spreading rates ranging from 5.5 to 1.53 cm/yr. The trends of the fracture zones inferred from the offsets in the magnetic anomalies have been constrained using the satellite gravity mosaic...

  14. Climate matching drives spread rate but not establishment success in recent unintentional bird introductions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abellán, Pedro; Tella, José L; Carrete, Martina; Cardador, Laura; Anadón, José D

    2017-08-29

    Understanding factors driving successful invasions is one of the cornerstones of invasion biology. Bird invasions have been frequently used as study models, and the foundation of current knowledge largely relies on species purposefully introduced during the 19th and early 20th centuries in countries colonized by Europeans. However, the profile of exotic bird species has changed radically in the last decades, as birds are now mostly introduced into the invasion process through unplanned releases from the worldwide pet and avicultural trade. Here we assessed the role of the three main drivers of invasion success (i.e., event-, species-, and location-level factors) on the establishment and spatial spread of exotic birds using an unprecedented dataset recorded throughout the last 100 y in the Iberian Peninsula. Our multimodel inference phylogenetic approach showed that the barriers that need to be overcome by a species to successfully establish or spread are not the same. Whereas establishment is largely related to event-level factors, apparently stochastic features of the introduction (time since first introduction and propagule pressure) and to the origin of introduced species (wild-caught species show higher invasiveness than captive-bred ones), the spread across the invaded region seems to be determined by the extent to which climatic conditions in the new region resemble those of the species' native range. Overall, these results contrast with what we learned from successful deliberate introductions and highlight that different management interventions should apply at different invasion stages, the most efficient strategies being related to event-level factors.

  15. Epidemic spreading between two coupled subpopulations with inner structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruan, Zhongyuan; Tang, Ming; Gu, Changgui; Xu, Jinshan

    2017-10-01

    The structure of underlying contact network and the mobility of agents are two decisive factors for epidemic spreading in reality. Here, we study a model consisting of two coupled subpopulations with intra-structures that emphasizes both the contact structure and the recurrent mobility pattern of individuals simultaneously. We show that the coupling of the two subpopulations (via interconnections between them and round trips of individuals) makes the epidemic threshold in each subnetwork to be the same. Moreover, we find that the interconnection probability between two subpopulations and the travel rate are important factors for spreading dynamics. In particular, as a function of interconnection probability, the epidemic threshold in each subpopulation decreases monotonously, which enhances the risks of an epidemic. While the epidemic threshold displays a non-monotonic variation as travel rate increases. Moreover, the asymptotic infected density as a function of travel rate in each subpopulation behaves differently depending on the interconnection probability.

  16. A global gas flaring black carbon emission rate dataset from 1994 to 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Kan; Fu, Joshua S.

    2016-11-01

    Global flaring of associated petroleum gas is a potential emission source of particulate matters (PM) and could be notable in some specific regions that are in urgent need of mitigation. PM emitted from gas flaring is mainly in the form of black carbon (BC), which is a strong short-lived climate forcer. However, BC from gas flaring has been neglected in most global/regional emission inventories and is rarely considered in climate modeling. Here we present a global gas flaring BC emission rate dataset for the period 1994-2012 in a machine-readable format. We develop a region-dependent gas flaring BC emission factor database based on the chemical compositions of associated petroleum gas at various oil fields. Gas flaring BC emission rates are estimated using this emission factor database and flaring volumes retrieved from satellite imagery. Evaluation using a chemical transport model suggests that consideration of gas flaring emissions can improve model performance. This dataset will benefit and inform a broad range of research topics, e.g., carbon budget, air quality/climate modeling, and environmental/human exposure.

  17. Changing human mobility and the spreading rate of global influenza outbreaks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slaa, Jan Willem

    2010-01-01

    Influenza, commonly called the flu, is an infectious disease which causes up to 500,000 deaths annually during seasonal epidemics. Influenza viruses circulate in many different types and in many species, such as birds, swines and humans. When a new human

  18. Quantifying rates of cell migration and cell proliferation in co-culture barrier assays reveals how skin and melanoma cells interact during melanoma spreading and invasion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haridas, Parvathi; Penington, Catherine J; McGovern, Jacqui A; McElwain, D L Sean; Simpson, Matthew J

    2017-06-21

    Malignant spreading involves the migration of cancer cells amongst other native cell types. For example, in vivo melanoma invasion involves individual melanoma cells migrating through native skin, which is composed of several distinct subpopulations of cells. Here, we aim to quantify how interactions between melanoma and fibroblast cells affect the collective spreading of a heterogeneous population of these cells in vitro. We perform a suite of circular barrier assays that includes: (i) monoculture assays with fibroblast cells; (ii) monoculture assays with SK-MEL-28 melanoma cells; and (iii) a series of co-culture assays initiated with three different ratios of SK-MEL-28 melanoma cells and fibroblast cells. Using immunostaining, detailed cell density histograms are constructed to illustrate how the two subpopulations of cells are spatially arranged within the spreading heterogeneous population. Calibrating the solution of a continuum partial differential equation to the experimental results from the monoculture assays allows us to estimate the cell diffusivity and the cell proliferation rate for the melanoma and the fibroblast cells, separately. Using the parameter estimates from the monoculture assays, we then make a prediction of the spatial spreading in the co-culture assays. Results show that the parameter estimates obtained from the monoculture assays lead to a reasonably accurate prediction of the spatial arrangement of the two subpopulations in the co-culture assays. Overall, the spatial pattern of spreading of the melanoma cells and the fibroblast cells is very similar in monoculture and co-culture conditions. Therefore, we find no clear evidence of any interactions other than cell-to-cell contact and crowding effects. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Flow Visualization in Evaporating Liquid Drops and Measurement of Dynamic Contact Angles and Spreading Rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Neng-Li; Chao, David F.

    2001-01-01

    A new hybrid optical system, consisting of reflection-refracted shadowgraphy and top-view photography, is used to visualize flow phenomena and simultaneously measure the spreading and instant dynamic contact angle in a volatile-liquid drop on a nontransparent substrate. Thermocapillary convection in the drop, induced by evaporation, and the drop real-time profile data are synchronously recorded by video recording systems. Experimental results obtained from this unique technique clearly reveal that thermocapillary convection strongly affects the spreading process and the characteristics of dynamic contact angle of the drop. Comprehensive information of a sessile drop, including the local contact angle along the periphery, the instability of the three-phase contact line, and the deformation of the drop shape is obtained and analyzed.

  20. Global Reproduction and Transformation of Science Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tobin, Kenneth

    2011-01-01

    Neoliberalism has spread globally and operates hegemonically in many fields, including science education. I use historical auto/ethnography to examine global referents that have mediated the production of contemporary science education to explore how the roles of teachers and learners are related to macrostructures such as neoliberalism and…

  1. Export Processing Zones and Global Class Formation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Neveling, Patrick

    2015-01-01

    This chapter is concerned with one of the most striking developments in the global political economy of capitalism after the Second World War; the rise of export processing zones and special economic zones. Building on long-term ethnohistorical research on the zones’ global spread from one zone in

  2. The global warming scare

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sunavala, P.D.

    1992-01-01

    It is argued that the present propaganda about the global warming with its disastrous consequences is a scare spread by some First World countries, especially the United States, to prevent the rapid industrialization of developing third world countries. (author). 6 refs., 1 tab

  3. Measuring the international spreading of the knowledge produced by French dental master theses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillet, D; Bérard, A; Faivre, O; Sarrazy, B

    2013-02-01

    We estimated the international spreading of the knowledge produced by French dental master theses by searching for corresponding publications, either as articles in Medline-indexed journals or abstracts of IADR meetings published in the Journal of Dental Research. From the 634 theses defended in 2010 in the 16 French odontology faculties, we found only one article, in a journal without impact factor, and six abstracts, over a 3-year period (2009-2011). This corresponds to a spreading rate of 0.6%. The participation rate of French odontology faculties at IADR meetings varies from 37.5% to 81.3% depending on the year. Although there are very few studies available on the matter, it appears that this international spreading rate is much lower than both the one found by Nieminen for odontology in Finland (8.2%) and typical spreading rates of medical theses (from 6% to 41% depending on the country). This great discrepancy could be explained by the lack of specific training provided to the students; the low awareness and little engagement of the students themselves, usually more concerned with their own private practice work; and the inadequate involvement of their supervisors. To tackle the lack of appropriate training, we suggest that a specific course on scientific writing should be offered to the students in the last year of their dental master studies. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

  4. Epidemic spreading in scale-free networks including the effect of individual vigilance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gong Yong-Wang; Song Yu-Rong; Jiang Guo-Ping

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we study the epidemic spreading in scale-free networks and propose a new susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model that includes the effect of individual vigilance. In our model, the effective spreading rate is dynamically adjusted with the time evolution at the vigilance period. Using the mean-field theory, an analytical result is derived. It shows that individual vigilance has no effect on the epidemic threshold. The numerical simulations agree well with the analytical result. Furthermore, we investigate the effect of individual vigilance on the epidemic spreading speed. It is shown that individual vigilance can slow the epidemic spreading speed effectively and delay the arrival of peak epidemic infection. (general)

  5. Ecosystem Interactions Underlie the Spread of Avian Influenza A Viruses with Pandemic Potential.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justin Bahl

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Despite evidence for avian influenza A virus (AIV transmission between wild and domestic ecosystems, the roles of bird migration and poultry trade in the spread of viruses remain enigmatic. In this study, we integrate ecosystem interactions into a phylogeographic model to assess the contribution of wild and domestic hosts to AIV distribution and persistence. Analysis of globally sampled AIV datasets shows frequent two-way transmission between wild and domestic ecosystems. In general, viral flow from domestic to wild bird populations was restricted to within a geographic region. In contrast, spillover from wild to domestic populations occurred both within and between regions. Wild birds mediated long-distance dispersal at intercontinental scales whereas viral spread among poultry populations was a major driver of regional spread. Viral spread between poultry flocks frequently originated from persistent lineages circulating in regions of intensive poultry production. Our analysis of long-term surveillance data demonstrates that meaningful insights can be inferred from integrating ecosystem into phylogeographic reconstructions that may be consequential for pandemic preparedness and livestock protection.

  6. Ecosystem Interactions Underlie the Spread of Avian Influenza A Viruses with Pandemic Potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bahl, Justin; Pham, Truc T.; Hill, Nichola J.; Hussein, Islam T. M.; Ma, Eric J.; Easterday, Bernard C.; Halpin, Rebecca A.; Stockwell, Timothy B.; Wentworth, David E.; Kayali, Ghazi; Krauss, Scott; Schultz-Cherry, Stacey; Webster, Robert G.; Webby, Richard J.; Swartz, Michael D.; Smith, Gavin J. D.; Runstadler, Jonathan A.

    2016-01-01

    Despite evidence for avian influenza A virus (AIV) transmission between wild and domestic ecosystems, the roles of bird migration and poultry trade in the spread of viruses remain enigmatic. In this study, we integrate ecosystem interactions into a phylogeographic model to assess the contribution of wild and domestic hosts to AIV distribution and persistence. Analysis of globally sampled AIV datasets shows frequent two-way transmission between wild and domestic ecosystems. In general, viral flow from domestic to wild bird populations was restricted to within a geographic region. In contrast, spillover from wild to domestic populations occurred both within and between regions. Wild birds mediated long-distance dispersal at intercontinental scales whereas viral spread among poultry populations was a major driver of regional spread. Viral spread between poultry flocks frequently originated from persistent lineages circulating in regions of intensive poultry production. Our analysis of long-term surveillance data demonstrates that meaningful insights can be inferred from integrating ecosystem into phylogeographic reconstructions that may be consequential for pandemic preparedness and livestock protection. PMID:27166585

  7. Global radiation damage at 300 and 260 K with dose rates approaching 1 MGy s{sup −1}

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Warkentin, Matthew; Badeau, Ryan; Hopkins, Jesse B. [Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853 (United States); Mulichak, Anne M.; Keefe, Lisa J. [Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL 60439 (United States); Thorne, Robert E., E-mail: ret6@cornell.edu [Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853 (United States)

    2012-02-01

    Approximately half of global radiation damage to thaumatin crystals can be outrun at 260 K if data are collected in less than 1 s. Global radiation damage to 19 thaumatin crystals has been measured using dose rates from 3 to 680 kGy s{sup −1}. At room temperature damage per unit dose appears to be roughly independent of dose rate, suggesting that the timescales for important damage processes are less than ∼1 s. However, at T = 260 K approximately half of the global damage manifested at dose rates of ∼10 kGy s{sup −1} can be outrun by collecting data at 680 kGy s{sup −1}. Appreciable sample-to-sample variability in global radiation sensitivity at fixed dose rate is observed. This variability cannot be accounted for by errors in dose calculation, crystal slippage or the size of the data sets in the assay.

  8. Education, Meritocracy and the Global War for Talent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Phillip; Tannock, Stuart

    2009-01-01

    Talk of the rise of a global war for talent and emergence of a new global meritocracy has spread from the literature on human resource management to shape nation-state discourse on managed migration and immigration reform. This article examines the implications that the global war for talent have for education policy. Given that this talent war is…

  9. Impact of Different Spreading Codes Using FEC on DWT Based MC-CDMA System

    OpenAIRE

    Masum, Saleh; Kabir, M. Hasnat; Islam, Md. Matiqul; Shams, Rifat Ara; Ullah, Shaikh Enayet

    2012-01-01

    The effect of different spreading codes in DWT based MC-CDMA wireless communication system is investigated. In this paper, we present the Bit Error Rate (BER) performance of different spreading codes (Walsh-Hadamard code, Orthogonal gold code and Golay complementary sequences) using Forward Error Correction (FEC) of the proposed system. The data is analyzed and is compared among different spreading codes in both coded and uncoded cases. It is found via computer simulation that the performance...

  10. Identifying influential spreaders in complex networks through local effective spreading paths

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiaojie; Zhang, Xue; Yi, Dongyun; Zhao, Chengli

    2017-05-01

    How to effectively identify a set of influential spreaders in complex networks is of great theoretical and practical value, which can help to inhibit the rapid spread of epidemics, promote the sales of products by word-of-mouth advertising, and so on. A naive strategy is to select the top ranked nodes as identified by some centrality indices, and other strategies are mainly based on greedy methods and heuristic methods. However, most of those approaches did not concern the connections between nodes. Usually, the distances between the selected spreaders are very close, leading to a serious overlapping of their influence. As a consequence, the global influence of the spreaders in networks will be greatly reduced, which largely restricts the performance of those methods. In this paper, a simple and efficient method is proposed to identify a set of discrete yet influential spreaders. By analyzing the spreading paths in the network, we present the concept of effective spreading paths and measure the influence of nodes via expectation calculation. The numerical analysis in undirected and directed networks all show that our proposed method outperforms many other centrality-based and heuristic benchmarks, especially in large-scale networks. Besides, experimental results on different spreading models and parameters demonstrates the stability and wide applicability of our method.

  11. Globalization, culture and psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melluish, Steve

    2014-10-01

    This article outlines the cultural and psychological effects of globalization. It looks at the impact of globalization on identity; ideas of privacy and intimacy; the way we understand and perceive psychological distress; and the development of the profession of psychology around the world. The article takes a critical perspective on globalization, seeing it as aligned with the spread of neoliberal capitalism, a tendency towards cultural homogenization, the imposition of dominant 'global north' ideas and the resultant growing inequalities in health and well-being. However, it also argues that the increased interconnectedness created by globalization allows for greater acknowledgement of our common humanity and for collective efforts to be developed to tackle what are increasingly global problems. This requires the development of more nuanced understandings of cultural differences and of indigenous psychologies.

  12. Spreading and solidification behavior of molten Si droplets impinging on substrates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagashio, K.; Murata, H.; Kuribayashi, K.

    2004-01-01

    This paper focuses on an effect of initial undercoolings on the spreading and solidification behavior of Si dropped on a silicon wafer, which was directly observed through it by the infrared imaging system. For an overheated droplet, the melt spreading occurred first and solidified later. The final splat shape was a typical disc. On the other hand, for a droplet with large initial undercooling, the solidification took place at the faster rate than the melt spreading, which resulted in a spherical shape of final splat. It is indicated that the final shape is considerably affected by the initial undercooling in the measurable-scale experiment with large droplets (∼mm size) and low impingement rates (∼m/s order). Moreover, equiaxed grains were found throughout the quenched surface by an electron backscatter pattern analysis. That is, the microstructure formation was nucleation-controlled since the growth parallel to the substrate was suppressed by the time-dependent contact of melt/substrate governed by the melt deformation

  13. Graphene as transparent and current spreading electrode in silicon solar cell

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanjay K. Behura

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Fabricated bi-layer graphene (BLG has been studied as transparent and current spreading electrode (TCSE for silicon solar cell, using TCAD-Silvaco 2D simulation. We have carried out comparative study using both Ag grids and BLG as current spreading electrode (CSE and TCSE, respectively. Our study reveals that BLG based solar cell shows better efficiency of 24.85% than Ag-based cell (21.44%, in all of the critical aspects, including generation rate, recombination rate, electric field, potential and quantum efficiency. Further BLG based cell exhibits pronounce rectifying behavior, low saturation current, and good turn-on voltage while studying in dark.

  14. Medical Tourism, Medical Migration, and Global Justice: Implications for Biosecurity in a Globalized World.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, I Glenn

    2017-05-01

    We live in the age of globalization. In medicine, that globalization has brought many benefits such as the diffusion of technology and the spread of health care training, but it has also brought threats to biosecurity. This article examines how medical tourism and medical migration pose risks to biosecurity. It also argues that designing legal responses to these risks requires not only technical competence but also a theory of global justice to guide that design. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press; all rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  15. Explosive spreading on complex networks: The role of synergy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Quan-Hui; Wang, Wei; Tang, Ming; Zhou, Tao; Lai, Ying-Cheng

    2017-04-01

    In spite of the vast literature on spreading dynamics on complex networks, the role of local synergy, i.e., the interaction of elements that when combined produce a total effect greater than the sum of the individual elements, has been studied but only for irreversible spreading dynamics. Reversible spreading dynamics are ubiquitous but their interplay with synergy has remained unknown. To fill this knowledge gap, we articulate a model to incorporate local synergistic effect into the classical susceptible-infected-susceptible process, in which the probability for a susceptible node to become infected through an infected neighbor is enhanced when the neighborhood of the latter contains a number of infected nodes. We derive master equations incorporating the synergistic effect, with predictions that agree well with the numerical results. A striking finding is that when a parameter characterizing the strength of the synergy reinforcement effect is above a critical value, the steady-state density of the infected nodes versus the basic transmission rate exhibits an explosively increasing behavior and a hysteresis loop emerges. In fact, increasing the synergy strength can promote the spreading and reduce the invasion and persistence thresholds of the hysteresis loop. A physical understanding of the synergy promoting explosive spreading and the associated hysteresis behavior can be obtained through a mean-field analysis.

  16. PREDICTION OF DENGUE FEVER EPIDEMIC SPREADING USING DYNAMICS TRANSMISSION VECTOR MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Retno Widyaningrum

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Increasing number of dengue cases in Surabaya shows that its city has high potential of dengue fever epidemic. Although some policies were designed by Surabaya Health Department, such as fogging and mosquito’s nest eradication, but these efforts still out of target because of inaccurate predictions. Ineffectiveness eradication of dengue fever epidemic is caused by lack of information and knowledge on environmental conditions in Surabaya. Developing spread and prediction system to minimize dengue fever epidemic is necessary to be conducted immediately. Spread and prediction system can improve eradication and prevention accuracy. The transmission dynamics vector simulation will be used as an approach to draw a complex system ofmosquito life cycle in which involve a lot offactors. Dynamics transmission model used to build model in mosquito model (oviposition rate and pre adult mosquito, infected and death cases in dengue fever. The model of mosquito and infected population can represent system. The output of this research is website of spread and prediction system of dengue fever epidemics to predict growth rate of Aedes Aegypti mosquito, infected, and death population because of dengue fever epidemics. The deviation of infected population is 0,519. The model of death cases in dengue fever is less precision with the deviation 1,229. Death cases model need improvement by adding some variables that influence to dengue fever death cases. Spread ofdengue fever prediction will help the government, health department to decide the best policies in minimizing the spread ofdengue fever epidemics.

  17. Asymmetric Effects of Global Liquidity Expansion on Foreign Portfolio Inflows, Exchange Rates, and Stock Prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dong-Eun Rhee

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the effects of global liquidity expansion on advanced and emerging economies by using panel VAR methodology. The results show that global liquidity expansion tends to boost economy by increasing GDP growth and stock prices. However, we find that the effects are asymmetric. The effects of global liquidity on GDP and stock prices are greater and more persistent in emerging economies than in liquidity recipient advanced economies. Moreover, global liquidity appreciates emerging economies' exchange rates more persistently than those of advanced economies. Lastly, while global liquidity expansion increases foreign portfolio investment inflows to Asian countries and liquidity recipient advanced economies, there is no evidence for Latin American countries.

  18. The VULCANO spreading programme

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cognet, G.; Laffont, G.; Jegou, C.; Journeau, C.; Sudreau, F.; Pierre, J.; Ramacciotti, M. [CEA (Atomic Energy Commission), DRN/DER - Bat. 212, CEA Cadarache, 13108 St. Paul Lez Durance (France)

    1999-07-01

    Among the currently studied core-catcher projects, some of them suppose corium spreading before cooling, in particular the EPR (European Pressurized Reactor) core-catcher concept is based on mixing the corium with a special concrete, spreading the molten mixture on a large multi-layer surface cooled from the bottom and subsequently cooling by flooding with water. Therefore, melt spreading deserves intensive investigation in order to determine and quantify key phenomena which govern the stopping of spreading. In France, for some years, the Nuclear Reactor Division of the Atomic Energy Commission (CEA/DRN) has undertaken a large program to improve knowledge on corium behaviour and coolability. This program is based on experimental and theoretical investigations which are finally gathered in scenario and mechanistic computer codes. In this framework, the real material experimental programme, VULCANO, conducted within an European frame, is currently devoted to the study of corium spreading. In 1997 and 1998, several tests have been performed on dry corium spreading with various composition of melts. Although all the observed phenomena, in particular the differences between simulant and real material melts have not been yet totally explained, these tests have already provided a lot of information about: The behaviour of complex mixtures including refractory oxides, silica, iron oxides and in one case iron metal; Spreading progression, which was never stopped in any of these tests by a crust formation at the front; The structure of spread melts (porosity, crusts,...); Physico-chemical interaction between melt and the refractory substratum which was composed of zirconia bricks. (authors)

  19. The VULCANO spreading programme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cognet, G.; Laffont, G.; Jegou, C.; Journeau, C.; Sudreau, F.; Pierre, J.; Ramacciotti, M.

    1999-01-01

    Among the currently studied core-catcher projects, some of them suppose corium spreading before cooling, in particular the EPR (European Pressurized Reactor) core-catcher concept is based on mixing the corium with a special concrete, spreading the molten mixture on a large multi-layer surface cooled from the bottom and subsequently cooling by flooding with water. Therefore, melt spreading deserves intensive investigation in order to determine and quantify key phenomena which govern the stopping of spreading. In France, for some years, the Nuclear Reactor Division of the Atomic Energy Commission (CEA/DRN) has undertaken a large program to improve knowledge on corium behaviour and coolability. This program is based on experimental and theoretical investigations which are finally gathered in scenario and mechanistic computer codes. In this framework, the real material experimental programme, VULCANO, conducted within an European frame, is currently devoted to the study of corium spreading. In 1997 and 1998, several tests have been performed on dry corium spreading with various composition of melts. Although all the observed phenomena, in particular the differences between simulant and real material melts have not been yet totally explained, these tests have already provided a lot of information about: The behaviour of complex mixtures including refractory oxides, silica, iron oxides and in one case iron metal; Spreading progression, which was never stopped in any of these tests by a crust formation at the front; The structure of spread melts (porosity, crusts,...); Physico-chemical interaction between melt and the refractory substratum which was composed of zirconia bricks. (authors)

  20. Emergence and nosocomial spread of carbapenem-resistant OXA-232-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae in Brunei Darussalam

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Abdul Momin, Muhd Haziq Fikry; Liakopoulos, Apostolos; Phee, Lynette M.; Wareham, David W.

    2017-01-01

    Objectives Carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) are identified as a major global health concern. The success of CRE is facilitated by the emergence, acquisition and spread of successful clones carrying plasmid-encoded resistance genes. In this study, an outbreak of carbapenem-resistant

  1. Forced Spreading of Aqueous Solutions on Zwitterionic Sulfobetaine Surfaces for Rapid Evaporation and Solute Separation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Cyuan-Jhang; Singh, Vickramjeet; Sheng, Yu-Jane; Tsao, Heng-Kwong

    2017-08-01

    Solute separation of aqueous mixtures is mainly dominated by water vaporization. The evaporation rate of an aqueous drop grows with increasing the liquid-gas interfacial area. The spontaneous spreading behavior of a water droplet on a total wetting surface provides huge liquid-gas interfacial area per unit volume; however, it is halted by the self-pinning phenomenon upon addition of nonvolatile solutes. In this work, it is shown that the solute-induced self-pinning can be overcome by gravity, leading to anisotropic spreading much faster than isotropic spreading. The evaporation rate of anisotropic spreading on a zwitterionic sulfobetaine surface is 25 times larger as that on a poly(methyl methacrylate) surface. Dramatic enhancement of evaporation is demonstrated by simultaneous formation of fog atop liquid film. During anisotropic spreading, the solutes are quickly precipitated out within 30 s, showing the rapid solute-water separation. After repeated spreading process for the dye-containing solution, the mean concentration of the collection is doubled, revealing the concentration efficiency as high as 100%. Gravity-enhanced spreading on total wetting surfaces at room temperature is easy to scale-up with less energy consumption, and thus it has great potentials for the applications of solute separation and concentration.

  2. Guidelines for rating Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aas IH Monrad

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF is a scoring system for the severity of illness in psychiatry. It is used clinically in many countries, as well as in research, but studies have shown several problems with GAF, for example concerning its validity and reliability. Guidelines for rating are important. The present study aimed to identify the current status of guidelines for rating GAF, and relevant factors and gaps in knowledge for the development of improved guidelines. Methods A thorough literature search was conducted. Results Few studies of existing guidelines have been conducted; existing guidelines are short; and rating has a subjective element. Seven main categories were identified as being important in relation to further development of guidelines: (1 general points about guidelines for rating GAF; (2 introduction to guidelines, with ground rules; (3 starting scoring at the top, middle or bottom level of the scale; (4 scoring for different time periods and of different values (highest, lowest or average; (5 the finer grading of the scale; (6 different guidelines for different conditions; and (7 different languages and cultures. Little information is available about how rules for rating are understood by different raters: the final score may be affected by whether the rater starts at the top, middle or bottom of the scale; there is little data on which value/combination of GAF values to record; guidelines for scoring within 10-point intervals are limited; there is little empirical information concerning the suitability of existing guidelines for different conditions and patient characteristics; and little is known about the effects of translation into different languages or of different cultural understanding. Conclusions Few studies have dealt specifically with guidelines for rating GAF. Current guidelines for rating GAF are not comprehensive, and relevant points for new guidelines are presented. Theoretical and

  3. Multidrug-resistant Gram-negative bacteria: a product of globalization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawkey, P M

    2015-04-01

    Global trade and mobility of people has increased rapidly over the last 20 years. This has had profound consequences for the evolution and the movement of antibiotic resistance genes. There is increasing exposure of populations all around the world to resistant bacteria arising in the emerging economies. Arguably the most important development of the last two decades in the field of antibiotic resistance is the emergence and spread of extended-spectrum β-lactamases (ESBLs) of the CTX-M group. A consequence of the very high rates of ESBL production among Enterobacteriaceae in Asian countries is that there is a substantial use of carbapenem antibiotics, resulting in the emergence of plasmid-mediated resistance to carbapenems. This article reviews the emergence and spread of multidrug-resistant Gram-negative bacteria, focuses on three particular carbapenemases--imipenem carbapenemases, Klebsiella pneumoniae carbapenemase, and New Delhi metallo-β-lactamase--and highlights the importance of control of antibiotic use. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  4. Hyperactive Around the World? The History of ADHD in Global Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Matthew

    2017-11-01

    A recent study has claimed that the global rate of Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) is 5.29%. Any variation in such rates in specific studies, argue the authors, was due to methodological problems, rather than differences in the actual distribution of ADHD. Such reports strengthen the flawed notion that ADHD is a universal and essential disorder, found in all human populations across time and place. While it is true that the concept of ADHD has spread from the USA, where it emerged during the late 1950s, to most corners of the globe, such superficial pronouncements mask profound differences in how ADHD has been interpreted in different countries and regions. In this paper, I compare ADHD's emergence in Canada, the UK, Scandinavia, China and India, arguing that, while ADHD can be considered a global phenomenon, behavioural and educational imperfections remain very much a product of local historical, cultural and political factors.

  5. Did the Chicxulub meteorite impact trigger eruptions at mid-ocean ridges globally?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrnes, J. S.; Karlstrom, L.

    2017-12-01

    Are there causal links between the eruption of large igneous provinces, meteorite impacts, and mass extinctions? Recent dating suggests that state shifts in Deccan Traps eruptions, including erupted volumes, feeder dike orientations, and magma chemistry, occurred shortly after the Chicxulub impact. A proposed explanation for this observation is an increase in upper mantle permeability following the Chicxulub impact that accelerated the pace of Deccan volcanism [Richards et al., 2015]. If such triggering occurred, at global distances not associated with the impact antipode, it is reasonable to hypothesize that other reservoirs of stored melt may have been perturbed as well. We present evidence that mid-ocean ridge activity increased globally following the impact. Anomalously concentrated free-air gravity and sea-floor topographic roughness suggest volumes of excess oceanic ridge magmatism in the range of 2 x 105 to 106 km3 within 1 Myrs of the Chicxulub impact. This signal is only clearly observed for half-spreading rates above 35 mm/yr, possibly because crust formed at slower spreading rates is too complex to preserve the signal. Because similar anomalies are observed separately in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, and because the timing of the signal does not clearly align with changes in spreading rates, we do not favor plume activity as an explanation. Widespread mobilization of existing mantle melt by post-impact seismic radiation, and subsequent emplacement of melt as crustal intrusions and eruptions, can explain the volume and distribution of anomalous crust without invoking impact-induced melt production. Although the mechanism for increasing permeability is not clear at either Deccan or mid-ocean ridges, these results support the hypothesis that the causes and consequences of the Deccan Traps, Chicxulub impact, and K-Pg mass extinction should not be considered in isolation. We conclude by discussing several enigmatic observations from K-Pg time that heightened

  6. Insulin accelerates global and mitochondrial protein synthesis rates in neonatal muscle during sepsis

    Science.gov (United States)

    In neonatal pigs, sepsis decreases protein synthesis in skeletal muscle by decreasing translation initiation. However, insulin stimulates muscle protein synthesis despite persistent repression of translation initiation signaling. To determine whether the insulin-induced increase in global rates of m...

  7. Intergenic DNA sequences from the human X chromosome reveal high rates of global gene flow

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wall Jeffrey D

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Despite intensive efforts devoted to collecting human polymorphism data, little is known about the role of gene flow in the ancestry of human populations. This is partly because most analyses have applied one of two simple models of population structure, the island model or the splitting model, which make unrealistic biological assumptions. Results Here, we analyze 98-kb of DNA sequence from 20 independently evolving intergenic regions on the X chromosome in a sample of 90 humans from six globally diverse populations. We employ an isolation-with-migration (IM model, which assumes that populations split and subsequently exchange migrants, to independently estimate effective population sizes and migration rates. While the maximum effective size of modern humans is estimated at ~10,000, individual populations vary substantially in size, with African populations tending to be larger (2,300–9,000 than non-African populations (300–3,300. We estimate mean rates of bidirectional gene flow at 4.8 × 10-4/generation. Bidirectional migration rates are ~5-fold higher among non-African populations (1.5 × 10-3 than among African populations (2.7 × 10-4. Interestingly, because effective sizes and migration rates are inversely related in African and non-African populations, population migration rates are similar within Africa and Eurasia (e.g., global mean Nm = 2.4. Conclusion We conclude that gene flow has played an important role in structuring global human populations and that migration rates should be incorporated as critical parameters in models of human demography.

  8. Experimental Study on Downwardly Spreading Flame over Inclined Polyethylene-insulated Electrical Wire with Applied AC Electric Fields

    KAUST Repository

    Lim, Seung Jae

    2014-12-30

    An experimental study on downwardly spreading flame over slanted electrical wire, which is insulated by Polyethylene (PE), was conducted with applied AC electric fields. The result showed that the flame spread rate decreased initially with increase in inclination angle of wire and then became nearly constant. The flame shape was modified significantly with applied AC electric field due to the effect of ionic wind. Such a variation in flame spread rate could be explained by a thermal balance mechanism, depending on flame shape and slanted direction of flame. Extinction of the spreading flame was not related to angle of inclination, and was described well by a functional dependency upon the frequency and voltage at extinction.

  9. The Vietnamese lending rate, policy-related rate, and monetary policy post-1997 Asian financial crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chu V. Nguyen

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Asymmetries in the Vietnamese lending central bank’s policy-related rate spread were documented. Empirical results revealed that the spread adjusts to the threshold faster when the central bank’s policy-related rates decrease relative to the lending rates than when the central bank’s policy-related rates move in the opposite direction. Additionally, the empirical findings indicate that Vietnamese commercial banks exhibit competitive rate setting behavior which may be attributable to graft maximization by bank’s management. The results also show bidirectional Granger causality between the Vietnamese lending rate and the central bank’s policy-related rate, indicating that the lending rate and the central bank’s policy-related rate affect each other’s movements. These results suggest that monetary authority can use its countercyclical monetary policy instruments to achieve its macroeconomics objectives. However, the estimation results of the GARCH (2, 3-in-Mean model suggest that they should intervene more frequently and by small policy measures to minimize the conditional variance of the spread to minimize the magnitude of the cycle of the lending rate.

  10. Influencing factors on vegetative cogongrass spread into pine forests on the Mississippi gulf coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jon D. Prevost; Donald L. Grebner; Jeanne C. Jones; Stephen C. Grado; Keith L. Belli; John D. Byrd

    2010-01-01

    Cogongrass [Imperata cylindrical (L.) Beauv.] is an invasive species that is spreading throughout forested ecosystems across the Southeastern United States. A field experiment was conducted in Hancock County, MS to determine if mid-rotation mechanical disturbance increased the rate of growth and spread of roadside cogongrass patches into adjacent...

  11. A comprehensive database of the geographic spread of past human Ebola outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mylne, Adrian; Brady, Oliver J; Huang, Zhi; Pigott, David M; Golding, Nick; Kraemer, Moritz U G; Hay, Simon I

    2014-01-01

    Ebola is a zoonotic filovirus that has the potential to cause outbreaks of variable magnitude in human populations. This database collates our existing knowledge of all known human outbreaks of Ebola for the first time by extracting details of their suspected zoonotic origin and subsequent human-to-human spread from a range of published and non-published sources. In total, 22 unique Ebola outbreaks were identified, composed of 117 unique geographic transmission clusters. Details of the index case and geographic spread of secondary and imported cases were recorded as well as summaries of patient numbers and case fatality rates. A brief text summary describing suspected routes and means of spread for each outbreak was also included. While we cannot yet include the ongoing Guinea and DRC outbreaks until they are over, these data and compiled maps can be used to gain an improved understanding of the initial spread of past Ebola outbreaks and help evaluate surveillance and control guidelines for limiting the spread of future epidemics.

  12. Global climate change and vector-borne diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ginsberg, H.S.

    2002-01-01

    Global warming will have different effects on different diseases because of the complex and idiosynchratic interactions between vectors, hosts, and pathogens that influence transmission dynamics of each pathogen. Human activities, including urbanization, rapid global travel, and vector management, have profound effects on disease transmission that can operate on more rapid time scales than does global climate change. The general concern about global warming encouraging the spread of tropical diseases is legitimate, but the effects vary among diseases, and the ecological implications are difficult to predict.

  13. SEIR Model of Rumor Spreading in Online Social Network with Varying Total Population Size

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dong Suyalatu; Deng Yan-Bin; Huang Yong-Chang

    2017-01-01

    Based on the infectious disease model with disease latency, this paper proposes a new model for the rumor spreading process in online social network. In this paper what we establish an SEIR rumor spreading model to describe the online social network with varying total number of users and user deactivation rate. We calculate the exact equilibrium points and reproduction number for this model. Furthermore, we perform the rumor spreading process in the online social network with increasing population size based on the original real world Facebook network. The simulation results indicate that the SEIR model of rumor spreading in online social network with changing total number of users can accurately reveal the inherent characteristics of rumor spreading process in online social network . (paper)

  14. Epidemiological models for the spread of anti-malarial resistance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antia R

    2003-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The spread of drug resistance is making malaria control increasingly difficult. Mathematical models for the transmission dynamics of drug sensitive and resistant strains can be a useful tool to help to understand the factors that influence the spread of drug resistance, and they can therefore help in the design of rational strategies for the control of drug resistance. Methods We present an epidemiological framework to investigate the spread of anti-malarial resistance. Several mathematical models, based on the familiar Macdonald-Ross model of malaria transmission, enable us to examine the processes and parameters that are critical in determining the spread of resistance. Results In our simplest model, resistance does not spread if the fraction of infected individuals treated is less than a threshold value; if drug treatment exceeds this threshold, resistance will eventually become fixed in the population. The threshold value is determined only by the rates of infection and the infectious periods of resistant and sensitive parasites in untreated and treated hosts, whereas the intensity of transmission has no influence on the threshold value. In more complex models, where hosts can be infected by multiple parasite strains or where treatment varies spatially, resistance is generally not fixed, but rather some level of sensitivity is often maintained in the population. Conclusions The models developed in this paper are a first step in understanding the epidemiology of anti-malarial resistance and evaluating strategies to reduce the spread of resistance. However, specific recommendations for the management of resistance need to wait until we have more data on the critical parameters underlying the spread of resistance: drug use, spatial variability of treatment and parasite migration among areas, and perhaps most importantly, cost of resistance.

  15. Hydrothermal plumes over spreading-center axes: Global distributions and geological inferences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Edward T.; German, Christopher R.; Elderfield, Henry

    Seafloor hydrothermal circulation is the principal agent of energy and mass exchange between the ocean and the earth's crust. Discharging fluids cool hot rock, construct mineral deposits, nurture biological communities, alter deep-sea mixing and circulation patterns, and profoundly influence ocean chemistry and biology. Although the active discharge orifices themselves cover only a minuscule percentage of the ridge-axis seafloor, the investigation and quantification of their effects is enhanced as a consequence of the mixing process that forms hydrothermal plumes. Hydrothermal fluids discharged from vents are rapidly diluted with ambient seawater by factors of 104-105 [Lupton et al., 1985]. During dilution, the mixture rises tens to hundreds of meters to a level of neutral buoyancy, eventually spreading laterally as a distinct hydrographic and chemical layer with a spatial scale of tens to thousands of kilometers [e.g., Lupton and Craig, 1981; Baker and Massoth, 1987; Speer and Rona, 1989].

  16. Ex-vessel corium spreading: results from the VULCANO spreading tests

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Journeau, Christophe E-mail: christophe.journeau@cea.fr; Boccaccio, Eric E-mail: eric.boccaccio@cea.fr; Brayer, Claude; Cognet, Gerard E-mail: gerard.cognet@cea.fr; Haquet, Jean-Francois E-mail: haquet@eloise.cad.cea.fr; Jegou, Claude E-mail: claude.jegou@cea.fr; Piluso, Pascal E-mail: pascal.piluso@cea.fr; Monerris, Jose E-mail: jose.monerris@cea.fr

    2003-07-01

    In the hypothetical case of a nuclear reactor severe accident, the reactor core could melt and form a mixture, called corium, of highly refractory oxides (UO{sub 2}, ZrO{sub 2}) and metallic or oxidized steel, that could eventually flow out of the vessel and mix with the basemat decomposition products (generally oxides such as SiO{sub 2}, Al{sub 2}O{sub 3}, CaO, Fe{sub 2}O{sub 3}, ...). For some years, the French Atomic Energy Commission (CEA) has launched an R and D program which aimed at providing the tools for improving the mastering of severe accidents. Within this program, the VULCANO experimental facility is operated to perform experiments with prototypic corium (corium of realistic chemical composition including depleted UO{sub 2}). This is coupled with the use of specific high-temperature instrumentation requiring in situ cross calibration. This paper is devoted to the 'spreading experiments' performed in the VULCANO facility, in which the effects of flow and solidification are studied. Due to the complex behavior of corium in the solidification range, an interdisciplinary approach has been used combining thermodynamics of multicomponent mixtures, rheological models of silicic semisolid materials, heat transfer at high temperatures, free-surface flow of a fluid with temperature-dependant properties. Twelve high-temperature spreading tests have been performed and analyzed. The main experimental results are the good spreadability of corium-concrete mixtures having large solidification ranges even with viscous silicic melts, the change of microstructure due to cooling rates, the occurrence of a large thermal contact resistance at the corium-substrate interface, the presence of a steep viscosity gradient at the surface, the transient concrete ablation. Furthermore, the experiments showed the presence of the gaseous inclusions in the melt even without concrete substrate. This gas release is linked to the local oxygen content in the melt which is

  17. The Global Internet Pandemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, Deborah Joy

    2009-01-01

    The global rise of Internet-based education is discussed in relation to models drawn from social studies and epidemiology. Experiential and data density models are highlighted, also the capacity for technological change, and phenomena observed in the spread of disease. The lesson of these illustrations is that even apparently permanent phenomena…

  18. Determinants of Commercial banks' interest rate spreads in Botswana

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The paper investigated the determinants of commercial banks' interest rate ... Index (HHI), a proxy measure of the degree of competition in a market ... the difference between prime lending rate and the savings account rate. ... as profit maximizing firms whose primary business is to offer deposits and loan ..... and Accounting.

  19. Journalism in the jaw of globalism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Đorđević Živorad

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Globalism has always been an important factor of both survival and development of human civilization. However, contemporary processes of globalization are founded upon accomplishment of interests of powerful states, powerful individuals and their domination. Journalism has made a great contribution to the accomplishment of goals of contemporary globalism. Instead of creative engagement in spreading of truth and objective informing, journalists are becoming transmission in publicity control and redirecting of its consciousness toward virtual. Hence the weaking of position and reputation of journalism.

  20. Epidemic spreading in localized environments with recurrent mobility patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granell, Clara; Mucha, Peter J.

    2018-05-01

    The spreading of epidemics is very much determined by the structure of the contact network, which may be impacted by the mobility dynamics of the individuals themselves. In confined scenarios where a small, closed population spends most of its time in localized environments and has easily identifiable mobility patterns—such as workplaces, university campuses, or schools—it is of critical importance to identify the factors controlling the rate of disease spread. Here, we present a discrete-time, metapopulation-based model to describe the transmission of susceptible-infected-susceptible-like diseases that take place in confined scenarios where the mobilities of the individuals are not random but, rather, follow clear recurrent travel patterns. This model allows analytical determination of the onset of epidemics, as well as the ability to discern which contact structures are most suited to prevent the infection to spread. It thereby determines whether common prevention mechanisms, as isolation, are worth implementing in such a scenario and their expected impact.

  1. Interrogating globalization and culture in anthropological perspective the Indian experience

    OpenAIRE

    Mondal, Sekh

    2012-01-01

    The present article is an attempt to examine and highlight the issues of cultural globalization and globalization of cultures with particular reference to India. To deal with these, I will discuss and analyze the concepts of globalization, cultural globalization and the nature of interrelation between global and local cultures in general and of India in particular. How the non-Indian global cultural elements are spreading among the Indians and how the Indian cultural elements are diffusing ov...

  2. Reverse preferential spread in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toyoizumi, Hiroshi; Tani, Seiichi; Miyoshi, Naoto; Okamoto, Yoshio

    2012-08-01

    Large-degree nodes may have a larger influence on the network, but they can be bottlenecks for spreading information since spreading attempts tend to concentrate on these nodes and become redundant. We discuss that the reverse preferential spread (distributing information inversely proportional to the degree of the receiving node) has an advantage over other spread mechanisms. In large uncorrelated networks, we show that the mean number of nodes that receive information under the reverse preferential spread is an upper bound among any other weight-based spread mechanisms, and this upper bound is indeed a logistic growth independent of the degree distribution.

  3. Credit spread variability in U.S. business cycles: the Great Moderation versus the Great Recession

    OpenAIRE

    Hylton Hollander; Guangling Liu

    2014-01-01

    This paper establishes the prevailing financial factors that influence credit spread variability, and its impact on the U.S. business cycle over the Great Moderation and Great Recession periods. To do so, we develop a dynamic general equilibrium framework with a central role of financial intermediation and equity assets. Over the Great Moderation and Great Recession periods, we find an important role for bank market power (sticky rate adjustments and loan rate markups) on credit spread variab...

  4. Credit spread variability in U.S. business cycles: The Great Moderation versus the Great Recession

    OpenAIRE

    Hylton Hollander and Guangling Liu

    2014-01-01

    This paper establishes the prevailing financial factors that influence credit spread variability, and its impact on the U.S. business cycle over the Great Moderation and Great Recession periods. To do so, we develop a dynamic general equilibrium framework with a central role of financial intermediation and equity assets. Over the Great Moderation and Great Recession periods, we find an important role for bank market power (sticky rate adjustments and loan rate markups) on credit spread variab...

  5. [Globalization and infectious diseases: the past and future].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scotto, Gaetano

    2011-03-01

    Globalization is a widely-used term that can be defined in a number of different ways. When used in an economic context, it refers to the reduction and removal of barriers between national borders in order to facilitate the flow of goods, capital, services and labour. Globalization is not a new phenomenon. Today the concept of globalization can be extended to include global exposure to infectious diseases, which is becoming more apparent. The aim of this article is to examine the influence of globalization on the outbreak and spread of infections in the world.

  6. Integrated Strategic Planning of Global Production Networks and Financial Hedging under Uncertain Demands and Exchange Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Achim Koberstein

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we present a multi-stage stochastic programming model that integrates financial hedging decisions into the planning of strategic production networks under uncertain exchange rates and product demands. This model considers the expenses of production plants and the revenues of markets in different currency areas. Financial portfolio planning decisions for two types of financial instruments, forward contracts and options, are represented explicitly by multi-period decision variables and a multi-stage scenario tree. Using an illustrative example, we analyze the impact of exchange-rate and demand volatility, the level of investment expenses and interest rate spreads on capacity location and dimensioning decisions. In particular, we show that, in the illustrative example, the exchange-rate uncertainty cannot be completely eliminated by financial hedging in the presence of demand uncertainty. In this situation, we find that the integrated model can result in better strategic planning decisions for a risk-averse decision maker compared to traditional modeling approaches.

  7. A parsimonious characterization of change in global age-specific and total fertility rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-01

    This study aims to understand trends in global fertility from 1950-2010 though the analysis of age-specific fertility rates. This approach incorporates both the overall level, as when the total fertility rate is modeled, and different patterns of age-specific fertility to examine the relationship between changes in age-specific fertility and fertility decline. Singular value decomposition is used to capture the variation in age-specific fertility curves while reducing the number of dimensions, allowing curves to be described nearly fully with three parameters. Regional patterns and trends over time are evident in parameter values, suggesting this method provides a useful tool for considering fertility decline globally. The second and third parameters were analyzed using model-based clustering to examine patterns of age-specific fertility over time and place; four clusters were obtained. A country’s demographic transition can be traced through time by membership in the different clusters, and regional patterns in the trajectories through time and with fertility decline are identified. PMID:29377899

  8. How Is Mono Spread?

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... How Is Mono Spread? Print My sister has mononucleosis. I drank out of her drink before we ... that I have mono now? – Kyle* Mono, or mononucleosis, is spread through direct contact with saliva. This ...

  9. Ohia forest decline: its spread and severity in Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwin Q. P. Petteys; Robert E. Burgan; Robert E. Nelson

    1975-01-01

    Ohia forest decline–its severity and rate of spread–was studied by aerial photographic techniques on a 197,000-acre (80,000-ha) portion of the island of Hawaii. In 1954, only 300 acres (121 ha) showed signs of severe decline; by 1972, the acreage of severely affected forest had increased to 85,200 acres (34,480 ha). Rate of decline and current severity were related to...

  10. Melt spreading code assessment, modifications, and application to the EPR core catcher design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farmer, M.T.

    2009-01-01

    The Evolutionary Power Reactor (EPR) is under consideration by various utilities in the United States to provide base load electrical production, and as a result the design is undergoing a certification review by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The severe accident design philosophy for this reactor is based upon the fact that the projected power rating results in a narrow margin for in-vessel melt retention by external cooling of the reactor vessel. As a result, the design addresses ex-vessel core melt stabilization using a mitigation strategy that includes: (1) an external core melt retention system to temporarily hold core melt released from the vessel; (2) a layer of 'sacrificial' material that is admixed with the melt while in the core melt retention system; (3) a melt plug in the lower part of the retention system that, when failed, provides a pathway for the mixture to spread to a large core spreading chamber; and finally, (4) cooling and stabilization of the spread melt by controlled top and bottom flooding. The overall concept is illustrated in Figure 1.1. The melt spreading process relies heavily on inertial flow of a low-viscosity admixed melt to a segmented spreading chamber, and assumes that the melt mass will be distributed to a uniform height in the chamber. The spreading phenomenon thus needs to be modeled properly in order to adequately assess the EPR design. The MELTSPREAD code, developed at Argonne National Laboratory, can model segmented, and both uniform and nonuniform spreading. The NRC is thus utilizing MELTSPREAD to evaluate melt spreading in the EPR design. MELTSPREAD was originally developed to support resolution of the Mark I containment shell vulnerability issue. Following closure of this issue, development of MELTSPREAD ceased in the early 1990's, at which time the melt spreading database upon which the code had been validated was rather limited. In particular, the database that was utilized for initial validation consisted

  11. A STUDY ON DETERMINING THE REFERENCE SPREADING SEQUENCES FOR A DS/CDMACOMMUNICATION SYSTEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cebrail ÇİFTLİKLİ

    2002-02-01

    Full Text Available In a direct sequence/code division multiple access (DS/CDMA system, the role of the spreading sequences (codes is crucial since the multiple access interference (MAI is the main performance limitation. In this study, we propose an accurate criterion which enables the determination of the reference spreading codes which yield lower bit error rates (BER's in a given code set for a DS/CDMA system using despreading sequences weighted by stepping chip waveforms. The numerical results show that the spreading codes determined by the proposed criterion are the most suitable codes for using as references.

  12. Parents' global rating of mental health correlates with SF-36 scores and health services satisfaction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mah, Jean K; Tough, Suzanne; Fung, Thomas; Douglas-England, Kathleen; Verhoef, Marja

    2006-10-01

    Patient satisfaction surveys are often used to measure quality of care. However, patient satisfaction may not be a reliable indicator of service quality because satisfaction can be influenced by clients' characteristics such as their health status. Parents of children attending a pediatric neurology clinic completed the Short Form Health Survey (SF-36) and global ratings of their physical and mental health. They also completed the Client Satisfaction Questionnaire (CSQ), the Measure of Processes of Care (MPOC), and the Family-Centered Care Survey (FCCS). 104 parents completed the survey. The correlation between the global rating of physical or mental health and their corresponding SF-36 scores was high. The majority (88%) of parents were satisfied, with a median CSQ score of 28 (IQR, 24 to 31) and a FCCS score of 4.7 (IQR, 4.2 to 4.9). Logistic regression identified parents' mental health as a significant predictor of client satisfaction (OR, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.14). Given the positive association between parents' mental health and satisfaction with care, it is important to consider mental status as a covariate in interpreting satisfaction surveys. Parents' global rating of mental health appears to be a reasonable indicator of their SF-36 mental scores.

  13. Understanding students visions about environmental global problems. Experience and lessons learned of teaching in Lithuania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, Paulo; Siarova, Hanna; Misiūnė, Ieva; Cerda, Artemi; Úbeda, Xavier

    2015-04-01

    Nowadays, environment is accepted to be an important element of our welfare. Our activities and societal status are strongly related with the quality of the environment where we live. On the other hand historical and cultural backgrounds shape importantly our views about the environment and how we act towards it in our daily life. In a context of globalization and increase of competition at international level, knowledge appears to be one of the key components for the advance of the word. Most of the knowledge produced comes from high level education institutions and research centres, which have responsibility to create and encourage critical thinking. Individuals aware of the problems can be more active and can push things forward. We think that environmental knowledge and awareness are fundamental for the future of the society. In order to develop better methodologies are developed if we have a better perception of students understanding of environmental problems. The objective of this work is to study the Lithuanian university level student's perception about some environmental challenges of our society. We selected several questions for the students rate according the relevance of the question, as "Air Pollution", "Waste Management", "Resources overexplotation", "Biodiversity reduction", "Human Overpopulation" "Poverty", "Global Warming/Climate change", Natural disasters", "Terrorism", "Economical crisis", "War and armed conflicts" and the "Spread of infectious diseases". We ask to the respondents to rate the importance using a likert scale (1=Not Important, 2= not so important, 3=important, 4=very important, 5=the most important). Among all the questions, the most rated where the Water pollution, the Spread of infectious diseases and Air Pollution and the less important where Biodiversity Reduction, Human overpopulation and climate change. These results helped us to identify where some efforts should be taken to raise student's awareness about global

  14. Wet climate and transportation routes accelerate spread of human plague

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Lei; Stige, Leif Chr.; Kausrud, Kyrre Linné; Ben Ari, Tamara; Wang, Shuchun; Fang, Xiye; Schmid, Boris V.; Liu, Qiyong; Stenseth, Nils Chr.; Zhang, Zhibin

    2014-01-01

    Currently, large-scale transmissions of infectious diseases are becoming more closely associated with accelerated globalization and climate change, but quantitative analyses are still rare. By using an extensive dataset consisting of date and location of cases for the third plague pandemic from 1772 to 1964 in China and a novel method (nearest neighbour approach) which deals with both short- and long-distance transmissions, we found the presence of major roads, rivers and coastline accelerated the spread of plague and shaped the transmission patterns. We found that plague spread velocity was positively associated with wet conditions (measured by an index of drought and flood events) in China, probably due to flood-driven transmission by people or rodents. Our study provides new insights on transmission patterns and possible mechanisms behind variability in transmission speed, with implications for prevention and control measures. The methodology may also be applicable to studies of disease dynamics or species movement in other systems. PMID:24523275

  15. Foreign exchange risk in terms of global financial crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michał Buszko

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Fx risk is one of the most important types of risk of financial activity. In practice, this risk comprises several risk aspects related to currencies exchanging, however most often it is identified with unexpected changes of their prices. In terms of the global financial crisis of 2007–2009, the fx risk has raised significantly, revealing a high daily volatility, increased spreads and the reversal of long-term exchange rate trends. Such increased risk especially influenced emerging markets economies, including Poland. Its consequence was quick strengthening of Polish currency at the beginning of the global crisis followed by a very sudden fall of its value. This event led to a substantial increase of banking risk, investment funds and corporate operations. It changed the structure of GDP sources as well as generated huge losses for exporting companies, using currency options hedging strategies.

  16. Tempo of Diversification of Global Amphibians: One-Constant Rate, One-Continuous Shift or Multiple-Discrete Shifts?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Youhua Chen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In this brief report, alternative time-varying diversification rate models were fitted onto the phylogeny of global amphibians by considering one-constant-rate (OCR, one-continuous-shift (OCS and multiplediscrete- shifts (MDS situations. The OCS diversification model was rejected by γ statistic (γ=-5.556, p⁄ 0.001, implying the existence of shifting diversification rates for global amphibian phylogeny. Through model selection, MDS diversification model outperformed OCS and OCR models using “laser” package under R environment. Moreover, MDS models, implemented using another R package “MEDUSA”, indicated that there were sixteen shifts over the internal nodes for amphibian phylogeny. Conclusively, both OCS and MDS models are recommended to compare so as to better quantify rate-shifting trends of species diversification. MDS diversification models should be preferential for large phylogenies using “MEDUSA” package in which any arbitrary numbers of shifts are allowed to model.

  17. The Mirage of Global Democracy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Wilde, J.H.

    The literature about global democracy deals with two different types of democratization: Type 1 is about spreading democracy across sovereign states as the basis for good governance. It focuses on the quality of the state/society-nexus: the balance between coercion, reward and identity. Type 2 is

  18. Multi-station investigation of spread F over Europe during low to high solar activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, Krishnendu Sekhar; Haralambous, Haris; Oikonomou, Christina; Paul, Ashik; Belehaki, Anna; Ioanna, Tsagouri; Kouba, Daniel; Buresova, Dalia

    2018-04-01

    Spread F is an ionospheric phenomenon which has been reported and analyzed extensively over equatorial regions on the basis of the Rayleigh-Taylor (R-T) instability. It has also been investigated over midlatitude regions, mostly over the Southern Hemisphere with its generation attributed to the Perkins instability mechanism. Over midlatitudes it has also been correlated with geomagnetic storms through the excitation of travelling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) and subsequent F region uplifts. The present study deals with the occurrence rate of nighttime spread F events and their diurnal, seasonal and solar cycle variation observed over three stations in the European longitude sector namely Nicosia (geographic Lat: 35.29 °N, Long: 33.38 °E geographic: geomagnetic Lat: 29.38 °N), Athens (geographic Lat: 37.98 °N, Long: 23.73 °E geographic: geomagnetic Lat: 34.61 °N) and Pruhonice (geographic Lat: 50.05 °N, Long: 14.41 °E geographic: geomagnetic Lat: 47.7 °N) during 2009, 2015 and 2016 encompassing periods of low, medium and high solar activity, respectively. The latitudinal and longitudinal variation of spread F occurrence was examined by considering different instability triggering mechanisms and precursors which past literature identified as critical to the generation of spread F events. The main findings of this investigation is an inverse solar cycle and annual temporal dependence of the spread F occurrence rate and a different dominant spread F type between low and high European midlatitudes.

  19. Uncovered Interest Parity in Central and Eastern Europe: Convergence and the Global Financial Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabio Filipozzi

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents tests of uncovered interest parity in Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania; all countries in Central and Eastern Europe with floating exchange rates. Data are monthly and the trading horizon is three months. The estimations show that the UIP hypothesis is rejected for the full sample from 1999 to 2011 for all five countries. A number of reasons for the rejection were investigated. Rolling regressions show that standard versions of the UIP essentially lose all explanatory power in 2008-10, which was a period in which the global financial crisis led to instability in currency and interest markets in Central and Eastern Europe. Two indicators of global risk aversion were also found to enter significantly in the many UIP estimations. Finally, the size of the interest rates spread also seems to be of importance, at least for Poland and Romania

  20. The global partnership: its achievements, missed opportunities and potential to address future threats from the spread of CBRN materials and expertise - 59335

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heyes, Alan; Bowen, Wyn; Chalmers, Hugh

    2012-01-01

    Document available in abstract form only. Full text of publication follows: In 2002, the G8 launched the Global Partnership (GP) against the Spread of Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction. The partnerships budget was placed at $20 billion over 10 years, and it was supported by some 23 countries and the European Union (EU).Though it has had little public recognition, the partnership has been one of the G8's most successful initiatives and has led to many benefits, including improved international security and addressing a sizeable proportion of the Cold War nuclear and chemical weapons arsenal in the Former Soviet Union. Its future, however, remains undecided, as its funding is set to expire in less than two years. In 2009 and 2010 Kings College London with generous funding support from the US John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, carried out a detailed evaluation of the achievements and benefits of the GP to date, its failings and lost opportunities, and potential future direction. Our findings indicate that the partnership has aided security in the Former Soviet Union and had a significant number of wider benefits with the potential to continue to do the same on a broader geographic level in future. As such, it is a valuable tool to assist the international community to work together to address global threats relating to chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear materials and related expertise and the G8 should take steps to renew its funding. (authors)

  1. A comprehensive database of the geographic spread of past human Ebola outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mylne, Adrian; Brady, Oliver J.; Huang, Zhi; Pigott, David M.; Golding, Nick; Kraemer, Moritz U.G.; Hay, Simon I.

    2014-01-01

    Ebola is a zoonotic filovirus that has the potential to cause outbreaks of variable magnitude in human populations. This database collates our existing knowledge of all known human outbreaks of Ebola for the first time by extracting details of their suspected zoonotic origin and subsequent human-to-human spread from a range of published and non-published sources. In total, 22 unique Ebola outbreaks were identified, composed of 117 unique geographic transmission clusters. Details of the index case and geographic spread of secondary and imported cases were recorded as well as summaries of patient numbers and case fatality rates. A brief text summary describing suspected routes and means of spread for each outbreak was also included. While we cannot yet include the ongoing Guinea and DRC outbreaks until they are over, these data and compiled maps can be used to gain an improved understanding of the initial spread of past Ebola outbreaks and help evaluate surveillance and control guidelines for limiting the spread of future epidemics. PMID:25984346

  2. Term structure of sovereign spreads: a contingent claim model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katia Rocha

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a simple structural model to estimate the termstructure and the implied default probability of a selected group of emerging countries, which account for 54% of the JPMorgan EMBIG index on average for the period 2000-2005. The real exchange rate dynamic, modeled as a pure diffusion process, is assumed to trigger default. The calibrated model generates sovereign spread curves consistent to market data. The results suggest that the market is systematically overpricing spreads for Brazil in 100 basis points, whereas for Mexico, Russia and Turkey the model is able to reproduce the market behavior.Este trabalho propõe um modelo estrutural para estimar a estrutura a termo e a probabilidade implícita de default de países emergentes que representam, em média, 54% do índice EMBIG do JPMorgan no período de 2000-2005. A taxa de câmbio real, modelada como um processo de difusão simples, é considerada como indicativa de default. O modelo calibrado gera a estrutura a termo dos spreads consistente com dados de mercado, indicando que o mercado sistematicamente sobre-estima os spreads para o Brasil em 100 pontos base na média, enquanto para México, Rússia e Turquia reproduz o comportamento do mercado.

  3. SEIR Model of Rumor Spreading in Online Social Network with Varying Total Population Size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Suyalatu; Deng, Yan-Bin; Huang, Yong-Chang

    2017-10-01

    Based on the infectious disease model with disease latency, this paper proposes a new model for the rumor spreading process in online social network. In this paper what we establish an SEIR rumor spreading model to describe the online social network with varying total number of users and user deactivation rate. We calculate the exact equilibrium points and reproduction number for this model. Furthermore, we perform the rumor spreading process in the online social network with increasing population size based on the original real world Facebook network. The simulation results indicate that the SEIR model of rumor spreading in online social network with changing total number of users can accurately reveal the inherent characteristics of rumor spreading process in online social network. Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 11275017 and 11173028

  4. Hybrid spread spectrum radio system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Stephen F [London, TN; Dress, William B [Camas, WA

    2010-02-09

    Systems and methods are described for hybrid spread spectrum radio systems. A method, includes receiving a hybrid spread spectrum signal including: fast frequency hopping demodulating and direct sequence demodulating a direct sequence spread spectrum signal, wherein multiple frequency hops occur within a single data-bit time and each bit is represented by chip transmissions at multiple frequencies.

  5. Bank Lending, Housing and Spreads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aslam, Aqib; Santoro, Emiliano

    The framework presented in this paper takes its cue from recent financial events and attempts to develop a tractable framework for policy analysis of macro-linkages, in particular a first attempt at the integration of an independent profit-maximising banking sector that lends to and borrows from...... agents in the economy, and through which changes in the monetary policy rate by the central bank are transmitted. The inter-linkages between housing and the role of the banking sector in the transmission of monetary policy is emphasized. Two competing effects are highlighted: (i) a financial accelerator...... channel, due to the presence of collateralized borrowers, and (ii) a banking attenuator effect, which crucially arises from the spread in interest rates caused by the introduction of monopolistically competitive financial intermediaries. We show how the classical amplification mechanism explored in models...

  6. Aristides Leão: a birth centennial homage with comments on his spreading depression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eliasz Engelhardt

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The year of 2014 is the birth centenary of Aristides Azevedo Pacheco Leão (1914-1993, and also marks seventy years of the publication of his discovery of the novel electrophysiological phenomenon, named by him “spreading depression” (SD, soon designated “Leão’s wave” or “Leão’s spreading depression”. This was a remarkable scientific milestone, and the author must be celebrated for this achievement, as the studies he triggered proceeded worldwide, with new concepts, as spreading depolarization, until the present days. Robust experimental and clinical evidence emerged to suggest that these and related electrophysiological phenomena are involved in the mechanisms of migraine aura, acute cerebrovascular diseases, traumatic brain injury, transient global amnesia, epileptic seizures, and their pathophysiological characteristics come to offer new therapeutic perspectives. He was a remarkable and complex personality, and the authors remit the readers to a paper where his personal life is contemplated.

  7. Users' participation and social influence during information spreading on Twitter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xin; Han, Ding-Ding; Yang, Ruiqi; Zhang, Ziqiao

    2017-01-01

    Online Social Networks generate a prodigious wealth of real-time information at an incessant rate. In this paper we study the empirical data that crawled from Twitter to describe the topology and information spreading dynamics of Online Social Networks. We propose a measurement with three measures to state the efforts of users on Twitter to get their information spreading, based on the unique mechanisms for information retransmission on Twitter. It is noticed that small fraction of users with special performance on participation can gain great influence, while most other users play a role as middleware during the information propagation. Thus a community analysis is performed and four categories of users are found with different kinds of participation that cause the information dissemination dynamics. These suggest that exiting topological measures alone may reflect little about the influence of individuals and provide new insights for information spreading.

  8. Global distribution of moisture, evaporation-precipitation, and diabatic heating rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christy, John R.

    1989-01-01

    Global archives were established for ECMWF 12-hour, multilevel analysis beginning 1 January 1985; day and night IR temperatures, and solar incoming and solar absorbed. Routines were written to access these data conveniently from NASA/MSFC MASSTOR facility for diagnostic analysis. Calculations of diabatic heating rates were performed from the ECMWF data using 4-day intervals. Calculations of precipitable water (W) from 1 May 1985 were carried out using the ECMWF data. Because a major operational change on 1 May 1985 had a significant impact on the moisture field, values prior to that date are incompatible with subsequent analyses.

  9. Geographical spread of global emissions: Within-country inequalities are large and increasing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sauter, Caspar; Grether, Jean-Marie; Mathys, Nicole A.

    2016-01-01

    In spite of the extensive literature on greenhouse gas emission inequalities at the world-wide level, most of the evidence so far has been based on country-level data. However, the within-country dimension matters for both the implementation and the policy formation of climate policies. As a preliminary step towards a better understanding of within-country inequalities, this paper measures their extent for the two major greenhouse gases, CO_2 and CH_4, over the 1970–2008 period. Using Theil-index decompositions, we show that within-country inequalities account for the bulk of global inequality, and tend to increase over the sample period, in contrast with diminishing between-country inequalities. Including differences across sectors reveals that between-sector inequalities matter more than between-country inequalities, and between-sector inequalities become the dominant source of global inequality at the end of the sample period in the CO_2 case. Finally, estimated social tensions arising from the disconnection between emissions and future damages turn out to be increasing as soon as within-country disparities are taken into account. These orders of magnitude should be kept in mind while discussing the efficiency and fairness of alternative paths in combating global warming. - Highlights: • We estimate global spatial CO_2 and CH_4 inequality using grid data for 1970–2008. • Overall spatial emission inequality is constant for CO_2 and increasing for CH_4. • Within-country inequality is rising and constitutes the main bulk of overall inequality. • An important part of within country inequality is due to differences among sectors. • The gap between emitters and victims is rising within countries.

  10. Fire safety in space – Investigating flame spread interaction over wires

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Citerne, Jean-Marie; Dutilleul, Hugo; Kizawa, Koki

    2016-01-01

    time, the influence of neighboring spread on the mass burning rate was assessed in microgravity. The observations are contrasted with the influence characterized in normal gravity. The experimental results are expected to deliver meaningful guidelines for future, planned experiments at a larger scale...... samples will be tested in a series of flight experiments (SAFFIRE 1-3) conducted in Cygnus vehicles after they have undocked from the ISS. These experiments will allow the study of ignition and possible flame spread in real spacecraft conditions, i.e. over real length scale samples within real time scales...

  11. Why Do You Spread This Message? Understanding Users Sentiment in Social Media Campaigns

    OpenAIRE

    Mahmud, Jalal; Gao, Huiji

    2014-01-01

    Twitter has been increasingly used for spreading messages about campaigns. Such campaigns try to gain followers through their Twitter accounts, influence the followers and spread messages through them. In this paper, we explore the relationship between followers sentiment towards the campaign topic and their rate of retweeting of messages generated by the campaign. Our analysis with followers of multiple social-media campaigns found statistical significant correlations between such sentiment ...

  12. Investors’ Risk Appetite and Global Financial Market Conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo

    2008-01-01

    A structural vector autoregression model is developed to analyze the dynamics of bond spreads among a sample of mature and developing countries during periods of financial stress in the last decade. The model identifies and quantifies the contribution on bond spreads from global market conditions (including funding liquidity, market liquidity, as well as credit and volatility risks), contagion effects, and idiosyncratic factors. While idiosyncratic factors explain a large amount of the change...

  13. Researches on thermal and rheological properties of cream- and vegetable spread

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. N. Ostrikov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Researches of thermal and rheological properties of cream- and vegetable spread are necessary for the scientific substantiation of their obtaining process, namely mixing and crystallization processes. As the object of research, we chose a cream- and vegetable spread, with the following composition: peanut butter 10%; wheat germ oil 10%; linseed oil 20%; butter 59.8%; emulsifier 0.2%. With the data obtained in the course of research of the rheological properties of cream- and vegetable spread, one can subsequently generate recommendations for optimization of technological modes of production. In particular, one can solve problems of intensification of hydro-mechanical and thermal processes by carrying them out at such a temperature and speed when the maximum preservation of the produced product structure will be achieved. Determination of thermal characteristics was carried out in the apparatus for the study of thermal and rheological properties of viscoelastic liquids Coesfeld RT-1394H. Rheological researches of cream- and vegetable spread were carried out on a series of viscometers SV-10 and PB-8m. The graphs of spread dynamic viscosity dependence on the temperature, and the dependence of the effective viscosity of the spread and vegetable oils on the shear rate were built according to experimental data. The data obtained is rational to choose the equipment for processing and production of cream- and vegetable spread, to simulate processes taking place in the production process, to solve problems of intensification of thermal and hydro-mechanical processes reasonably, by conducting the production process at temperatures that do not cause the destruction of the product structure.

  14. Would There Be One Standard English as the Global Language?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ienneke Indra Dewi

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Article intends to investigate whether there is the possibility of having English as a global language used all over the world with one variety only. One variety of English will reduce the miscommunication among people speaking English. The research was conducted by library research by looking at the requirements of a global language, its spread in the world, and the related problems. The results show that English has fulfilled the requirements of a global language looking from its history and the spread of its speakers. However, it has a lot of varieties in either English speaking countries or in the developing countries where English functions as a second and foreign language. The varieties are found not only in the pronunciation, but in the vocabulary and grammar as well. Usually the native languages play an important role in these varieties. All these facts indicate that English might become a global language. However, having one variety of English still needs a long time to go.

  15. Global and local targeted immunization in networks with community structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yan, Shu; Tang, Shaoting; Pei, Sen; Zheng, Zhiming; Fang, Wenyi

    2015-01-01

    Immunization plays an important role in the field of epidemic spreading in complex networks. In previous studies, targeted immunization has been proved to be an effective strategy. However, when extended to networks with community structure, it is unknown whether the superior strategy is to vaccinate the nodes who have the most connections in the entire network (global strategy), or those in the original community where epidemic starts to spread (local strategy). In this work, by using both analytic approaches and simulations, we observe that the answer depends on the closeness between communities. If communities are tied closely, the global strategy is superior to the local strategy. Otherwise, the local targeted immunization is advantageous. The existence of a transitional value of closeness implies that we should adopt different strategies. Furthermore, we extend our investigation from two-community networks to multi-community networks. We consider the mode of community connection and the location of community where epidemic starts to spread. Both simulation results and theoretical predictions show that local strategy is a better option for immunization in most cases. But if the epidemic begins from a core community, global strategy is superior in some cases. (paper)

  16. Assessment of competence for caesarean section with global rating scale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qureshi, R.N.; Ali, S.K.

    2013-01-01

    Objective: To establish as reliable and valid the nine-point global rating scale for assessing residents' independent performance of Caesarean Section. Methods: The validation study was conducted at the Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Aga Khan University Hospital, from April to December 2008, and comprised 15 residents during 40 Caesarean Sections over 9 months. Independently two evaluators rated each procedure and the difficulty of each case. Results: The observations per faculty ranged from 1-8 (mean 4.07+- 2.56). The Year 4 residents were observed the most i.e. 32 (40%), followed by Year 3, 30 (37.5%); Year 2; 14 (17.5%); and Year 1, 4 (5%). Mean time required for observation of the surgery was 43.81+-14.28 (range: 20-90) with a mode of 45 min. Mean aggregate rating on all items showed gradual progression with the year of residency. The assessment tool had an internal consistency reliability (Cronbach's alpha) of 0.9097 with low inter-rater reliability. Conclusion: The evaluation tool was found to be reliable and valid for evaluating a resident's competence for performing Caesarean Section. Training of the assessors is required for a better inter-rater agreement. (author)

  17. Global analysis of seagrass restoration: the importance of large-scale planting

    KAUST Repository

    van Katwijk, Marieke M.; Thorhaug, Anitra; Marbà , Nú ria; Orth, Robert J.; Duarte, Carlos M.; Kendrick, Gary A.; Althuizen, Inge H. J.; Balestri, Elena; Bernard, Guillaume; Cambridge, Marion L.; Cunha, Alexandra; Durance, Cynthia; Giesen, Wim; Han, Qiuying; Hosokawa, Shinya; Kiswara, Wawan; Komatsu, Teruhisa; Lardicci, Claudio; Lee, Kun-Seop; Meinesz, Alexandre; Nakaoka, Masahiro; O'Brien, Katherine R.; Paling, Erik I.; Pickerell, Chris; Ransijn, Aryan M. A.; Verduin, Jennifer J.

    2015-01-01

    In coastal and estuarine systems, foundation species like seagrasses, mangroves, saltmarshes or corals provide important ecosystem services. Seagrasses are globally declining and their reintroduction has been shown to restore ecosystem functions. However, seagrass restoration is often challenging, given the dynamic and stressful environment that seagrasses often grow in. From our world-wide meta-analysis of seagrass restoration trials (1786 trials), we describe general features and best practice for seagrass restoration. We confirm that removal of threats is important prior to replanting. Reduced water quality (mainly eutrophication), and construction activities led to poorer restoration success than, for instance, dredging, local direct impact and natural causes. Proximity to and recovery of donor beds were positively correlated with trial performance. Planting techniques can influence restoration success. The meta-analysis shows that both trial survival and seagrass population growth rate in trials that survived are positively affected by the number of plants or seeds initially transplanted. This relationship between restoration scale and restoration success was not related to trial characteristics of the initial restoration. The majority of the seagrass restoration trials have been very small, which may explain the low overall trial survival rate (i.e. estimated 37%). Successful regrowth of the foundation seagrass species appears to require crossing a minimum threshold of reintroduced individuals. Our study provides the first global field evidence for the requirement of a critical mass for recovery, which may also hold for other foundation species showing strong positive feedback to a dynamic environment. Synthesis and applications. For effective restoration of seagrass foundation species in its typically dynamic, stressful environment, introduction of large numbers is seen to be beneficial and probably serves two purposes. First, a large-scale planting

  18. Global analysis of seagrass restoration: the importance of large-scale planting

    KAUST Repository

    van Katwijk, Marieke M.

    2015-10-28

    In coastal and estuarine systems, foundation species like seagrasses, mangroves, saltmarshes or corals provide important ecosystem services. Seagrasses are globally declining and their reintroduction has been shown to restore ecosystem functions. However, seagrass restoration is often challenging, given the dynamic and stressful environment that seagrasses often grow in. From our world-wide meta-analysis of seagrass restoration trials (1786 trials), we describe general features and best practice for seagrass restoration. We confirm that removal of threats is important prior to replanting. Reduced water quality (mainly eutrophication), and construction activities led to poorer restoration success than, for instance, dredging, local direct impact and natural causes. Proximity to and recovery of donor beds were positively correlated with trial performance. Planting techniques can influence restoration success. The meta-analysis shows that both trial survival and seagrass population growth rate in trials that survived are positively affected by the number of plants or seeds initially transplanted. This relationship between restoration scale and restoration success was not related to trial characteristics of the initial restoration. The majority of the seagrass restoration trials have been very small, which may explain the low overall trial survival rate (i.e. estimated 37%). Successful regrowth of the foundation seagrass species appears to require crossing a minimum threshold of reintroduced individuals. Our study provides the first global field evidence for the requirement of a critical mass for recovery, which may also hold for other foundation species showing strong positive feedback to a dynamic environment. Synthesis and applications. For effective restoration of seagrass foundation species in its typically dynamic, stressful environment, introduction of large numbers is seen to be beneficial and probably serves two purposes. First, a large-scale planting

  19. Default Spread dan Term Spread sebagai Variabel Proxy Siklus Bisnis pada Model Fama-French

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edwin Hendra

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available This research aims to apply the Fama-French models and test the effect of alternative variable of bond yield spread, default spread (RBBB – RAAA and RAAA – RF, and the term spread (RSUN10-RSUN1, as proxy variables of the business cycle, in IDX stock data during 2005-2010. Four types of asset pricing models tested are Sharpe-Lintner CAPM, Fama-French models, Hwang et al.model, and hybrid model. The results showed that the size effect and value effect has an impact on excess stock returns. Slopes of market beta, SMB, and HML are more sensitive to stock big size and high B / M. Default spreads and term spreads in Hwang et al. model can explain the value effect, and weakly explain the size effect, meanwhile the power of explanation disappeared on Hybrid models. Based on the assessment adjusted R2 and the frequency of rejection of non-zero alpha, is found that the hybrid model is the most suitable model.  

  20. Wave-like spread of Ebola Zaire.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available In the past decade the Zaire strain of Ebola virus (ZEBOV has emerged repeatedly into human populations in central Africa and caused massive die-offs of gorillas and chimpanzees. We tested the view that emergence events are independent and caused by ZEBOV variants that have been long resident at each locality. Phylogenetic analyses place the earliest known outbreak at Yambuku, Democratic Republic of Congo, very near to the root of the ZEBOV tree, suggesting that viruses causing all other known outbreaks evolved from a Yambuku-like virus after 1976. The tendency for earlier outbreaks to be directly ancestral to later outbreaks suggests that outbreaks are epidemiologically linked and may have occurred at the front of an advancing wave. While the ladder-like phylogenetic structure could also bear the signature of positive selection, our statistical power is too weak to reach a conclusion in this regard. Distances among outbreaks indicate a spread rate of about 50 km per year that remains consistent across spatial scales. Viral evolution is clocklike, and sequences show a high level of small-scale spatial structure. Genetic similarity decays with distance at roughly the same rate at all spatial scales. Our analyses suggest that ZEBOV has recently spread across the region rather than being long persistent at each outbreak locality. Controlling the impact of Ebola on wild apes and human populations may be more feasible than previously recognized.

  1. Modelling indirect interactions during failure spreading in a project activity network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellinas, Christos

    2018-03-12

    Spreading broadly refers to the notion of an entity propagating throughout a networked system via its interacting components. Evidence of its ubiquity and severity can be seen in a range of phenomena, from disease epidemics to financial systemic risk. In order to understand the dynamics of these critical phenomena, computational models map the probability of propagation as a function of direct exposure, typically in the form of pairwise interactions between components. By doing so, the important role of indirect interactions remains unexplored. In response, we develop a simple model that accounts for the effect of both direct and subsequent exposure, which we deploy in the novel context of failure propagation within a real-world engineering project. We show that subsequent exposure has a significant effect in key aspects, including the: (a) final spreading event size, (b) propagation rate, and (c) spreading event structure. In addition, we demonstrate the existence of 'hidden influentials' in large-scale spreading events, and evaluate the role of direct and subsequent exposure in their emergence. Given the evidence of the importance of subsequent exposure, our findings offer new insight on particular aspects that need to be included when modelling network dynamics in general, and spreading processes specifically.

  2. A Novel Dynamic Model Describing the Spread of the MERS-CoV and the Expression of Dipeptidyl Peptidase 4

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Siming Tang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS coronavirus, a newly identified pathogen, causes severe pneumonia in humans. MERS is caused by a coronavirus known as MERS-CoV, which attacks the respiratory system. The recently defined receptor for MERS-CoV, dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP4, is generally expressed in endothelial and epithelial cells and has been shown to be present on cultured human nonciliated bronchiolar epithelium cells. In this paper, a class of novel four-dimensional dynamic model describing the infection of MERS-CoV is given, and then global stability of the equilibria of the model is discussed. Our results show that the spread of MERS-CoV can also be controlled by decreasing the expression rate of DPP4.

  3. Effects of Global Warming on Vibrio Ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vezzulli, Luigi; Pezzati, Elisabetta; Brettar, Ingrid; Höfle, Manfred; Pruzzo, Carla

    2015-06-01

    Vibrio-related infections are increasing worldwide both in humans and aquatic animals. Rise in global sea surface temperature (SST), which is approximately 1 °C higher now than 140 years ago and is one of the primary physical impacts of global warming, has been linked to such increases. In this chapter, major known effects of increasing SST on the biology and ecology of vibrios are described. They include the effects on bacterial growth rate, both in the field and in laboratory, culturability, expression of pathogenicity traits, and interactions with aquatic organisms and abiotic surfaces. Special emphasis is given to the effect of ocean warming on Vibrio interactions with zooplankters, which represent one of the most important aquatic reservoirs for these bacteria. The reported findings highlight the biocomplexity of the interactions between vibrios and their natural environment in a climate change scenario, posing the need for interdisciplinary studies to properly understand the connection between ocean warming and persistence and spread of vibrios in sea waters and the epidemiology of the diseases they cause.

  4. Domain-Specific Ratings of Importance and Global Self-Worth of Children with Visual Impairments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shapiro, Deborah R.; Moffett, Aaron; Lieberman, Lauren; Dummer, Gail M.

    2008-01-01

    This study examined perceived competence; ratings of importance of physical appearance, athletic competence, and social acceptance; discrepancy scores; and global self-worth of 43 children with visual impairments. The findings revealed that the children discounted the importance of physical appearance, athletic competence, and social acceptance…

  5. Global environmental ratings as an instrument of environmental policies: what factors determine the rank of Russia?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alekseeva, Nina; Arshinova, Marina; Milanova, Elena

    2017-04-01

    Systems of global environmental rankings have emerged as a result of the escalating need for revealing the trends of ecological development for the world and for certain countries and regions. Both the environmental indicators and indexes and the ratings made on their basis are important for the assessment and forecast of the ecological situation in order to tackle the global and regional problems of sustainable development and help to translate the research findings into policy developments. Data sources for the global environmental ratings are most often the statistical information accumulated in databases of the international organizations (World Bank, World Resources Institute, FAO, WHO, etc.) These data are highly reliable and well-comparable that makes the ratings very objective. There are also good examples of using data of sociological polls, information from social networks, etc. The global environmental ratings are produced by the international organizations (World Bank, World Resources Institute, the UN Environment Program), non-governmental associations (WWF, Climate Action Network Europe (CAN-E), Germanwatch Nord-Süd-Initiative, Friends of the Earth, World Development Movement), research structures (scientific centers of the Yale and Colombian universities, the Oak-Ridge National Laboratory, the New Economic Foundation), and also individual experts, news agencies, etc. Thematic (sectoral) ratings cover various spheres from availability of resources and anthropogenic impact on environment components to nature protection policies and perception of environmental problems. The environmental indicators cover all parameters important for understanding the current ecological situation and the trajectories of its development (the DPSIR model, i.e. drivers, pressures, state, impact and response). Complex (integral) ratings are based on environmental indexes which are combined measurement tools using a complex of aggregated indicators based on a wide range of

  6. Spread effects - methodology; Spredningseffekter - metodegrunnlag

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-07-01

    Diffusion of technology, environmental effects and rebound effects are the principal effects from the funding of renewable energy and energy economising. It is difficult to estimate the impact of the spread effects both prior to the measures are implemented and after the measures are carried out. Statistical methods can be used to estimate the spread effects, but they are insecure and always need to be complemented with qualitative and subjective evaluations. It is more adequate to evaluate potential spread effects from market and market data surveillance for a selection of technologies and parties. Based on this information qualitative indicators for spread effects can be constructed and used both ex ante and ex post (ml)

  7. Direct and indirect impact of sewage sludge compost spreading on Quercus coccifera monoterpene emissions in a Mediterranean shrubland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olivier, Romain [Aix-Marseille Universite - Institut Mediterraneen d' Ecologie et de Paleoecologie (IMEP), UMR 6111, Equipe Diversite Fonctionnelle des Communautes Vegetales - Centre de St Charles, Case 4, 13331 Marseille Cedex 03 (France); Staudt, Michael [Departement Fonctionnement des Ecosystemes, Centre d' Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE, UMR 5175), 1919 Route de Mende, 34293 Montpellier Cedex 5 (France); Lavoir, Anne-Violette; Ormeno, Elena; Rizvi, Syed Hussain; Baldy, Virginie; Rivoal, Annabelle; Greff, Stephane; Lecareux, Caroline [Aix-Marseille Universite - Institut Mediterraneen d' Ecologie et de Paleoecologie (IMEP), UMR 6111, Equipe Diversite Fonctionnelle des Communautes Vegetales - Centre de St Charles, Case 4, 13331 Marseille Cedex 03 (France); Fernandez, Catherine, E-mail: catherine.fernandez@univ-provence.fr [Aix-Marseille Universite - Institut Mediterraneen d' Ecologie et de Paleoecologie (IMEP), UMR 6111, Equipe Diversite Fonctionnelle des Communautes Vegetales - Centre de St Charles, Case 4, 13331 Marseille Cedex 03 (France)

    2011-04-15

    Monoterpene emissions of Quercus coccifera L. were repeatedly measured during the two years following the spreading of a sewage sludge compost at rates of 50 Mg ha{sup -1} and 100 Mg ha{sup -1}, in a twelve-year-old post-fire Mediterranean shrubland. We also monitored the patterns of change in soil and leaf nutrient content, plant water potential, chlorophyll fluorescence, and plant growth. Compost spreading resulted in weak changes in leaf nutrient content and plant water status, and therefore no significant effect on monoterpene emissions at leaf scale, except during one summer sampling, probably related to advanced leaf maturity with the highest compost rate. However, compost increased plant growth, particularly the leaf biomass. The results suggest that compost spreading in Mediterranean shrublands has no strong short-term effect on Q. coccifera monoterpene emissions at leaf level, but may indirectly increase volatile organic compound fluxes at the stand scale, which may contribute to regional ozone pollution. - Research highlights: > Compost spreading had weak effects on leaf terpene emissions of Quercus coccifera. > Compost spreading increased leaf biomass of Q. coccifera. > Compost spreading indirectly increased Q. coccifera biogenic emissions, at the landscape scale. - Compost spreading in Mediterranean shrublands has no strong short-term effect on Q. coccifera monoterpene emissions at leaf level.

  8. Direct and indirect impact of sewage sludge compost spreading on Quercus coccifera monoterpene emissions in a Mediterranean shrubland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olivier, Romain; Staudt, Michael; Lavoir, Anne-Violette; Ormeno, Elena; Rizvi, Syed Hussain; Baldy, Virginie; Rivoal, Annabelle; Greff, Stephane; Lecareux, Caroline; Fernandez, Catherine

    2011-01-01

    Monoterpene emissions of Quercus coccifera L. were repeatedly measured during the two years following the spreading of a sewage sludge compost at rates of 50 Mg ha -1 and 100 Mg ha -1 , in a twelve-year-old post-fire Mediterranean shrubland. We also monitored the patterns of change in soil and leaf nutrient content, plant water potential, chlorophyll fluorescence, and plant growth. Compost spreading resulted in weak changes in leaf nutrient content and plant water status, and therefore no significant effect on monoterpene emissions at leaf scale, except during one summer sampling, probably related to advanced leaf maturity with the highest compost rate. However, compost increased plant growth, particularly the leaf biomass. The results suggest that compost spreading in Mediterranean shrublands has no strong short-term effect on Q. coccifera monoterpene emissions at leaf level, but may indirectly increase volatile organic compound fluxes at the stand scale, which may contribute to regional ozone pollution. - Research highlights: → Compost spreading had weak effects on leaf terpene emissions of Quercus coccifera. → Compost spreading increased leaf biomass of Q. coccifera. → Compost spreading indirectly increased Q. coccifera biogenic emissions, at the landscape scale. - Compost spreading in Mediterranean shrublands has no strong short-term effect on Q. coccifera monoterpene emissions at leaf level.

  9. Epidemic spreading on adaptively weighted scale-free networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Mengfeng; Zhang, Haifeng; Kang, Huiyan; Zhu, Guanghu; Fu, Xinchu

    2017-04-01

    We introduce three modified SIS models on scale-free networks that take into account variable population size, nonlinear infectivity, adaptive weights, behavior inertia and time delay, so as to better characterize the actual spread of epidemics. We develop new mathematical methods and techniques to study the dynamics of the models, including the basic reproduction number, and the global asymptotic stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibria. We show the disease-free equilibrium cannot undergo a Hopf bifurcation. We further analyze the effects of local information of diseases and various immunization schemes on epidemic dynamics. We also perform some stochastic network simulations which yield quantitative agreement with the deterministic mean-field approach.

  10. Globalization, Sustainable Development and Universities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toakley, Arthur Raymond

    2004-01-01

    Globalization is a natural outcome of the sustained technological and economic growth, which originated with the Industrial Revolution in Britain during the 18th century. This path to continuing economic growth spread initially to continental Europe and North America, and brought with it the creation of large towns and substantial social change.…

  11. Unveiling hidden properties of young star clusters: differential reddening, star-formation spread, and binary fraction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonatto, C.; Lima, E. F.; Bica, E.

    2012-04-01

    Context. Usually, important parameters of young, low-mass star clusters are very difficult to obtain by means of photometry, especially when differential reddening and/or binaries occur in large amounts. Aims: We present a semi-analytical approach (ASAmin) that, when applied to the Hess diagram of a young star cluster, is able to retrieve the values of mass, age, star-formation spread, distance modulus, foreground and differential reddening, and binary fraction. Methods: The global optimisation method known as adaptive simulated annealing (ASA) is used to minimise the residuals between the observed and simulated Hess diagrams of a star cluster. The simulations are realistic and take the most relevant parameters of young clusters into account. Important features of the simulations are a normal (Gaussian) differential reddening distribution, a time-decreasing star-formation rate, the unresolved binaries, and the smearing effect produced by photometric uncertainties on Hess diagrams. Free parameters are cluster mass, age, distance modulus, star-formation spread, foreground and differential reddening, and binary fraction. Results: Tests with model clusters built with parameters spanning a broad range of values show that ASAmin retrieves the input values with a high precision for cluster mass, distance modulus, and foreground reddening, but they are somewhat lower for the remaining parameters. Given the statistical nature of the simulations, several runs should be performed to obtain significant convergence patterns. Specifically, we find that the retrieved (absolute minimum) parameters converge to mean values with a low dispersion as the Hess residuals decrease. When applied to actual young clusters, the retrieved parameters follow convergence patterns similar to the models. We show how the stochasticity associated with the early phases may affect the results, especially in low-mass clusters. This effect can be minimised by averaging out several twin clusters in the

  12. The phylogeography and spatiotemporal spread of south-central skunk rabies virus.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalia A Kuzmina

    Full Text Available The south-central skunk rabies virus (SCSK is the most broadly distributed terrestrial viral lineage in North America. Skunk rabies has not been efficiently targeted by oral vaccination campaigns and represents a natural system of pathogen invasion, yielding insights to rabies emergence. In the present study we reconstructed spatiotemporal spread of SCSK in the whole territory of its circulation using a combination of Bayesian methods. The analysis based on 241 glycoprotein gene sequences demonstrated that SCSK is much more divergent phylogenetically than was appreciated previously. According to our analyses the SCSK originated in the territory of Texas ~170 years ago, and spread geographically during the following decades. The wavefront velocity in the northward direction was significantly greater than in the eastward and westward directions. Rivers (except the Mississippi River and Rio Grande River did not constitute significant barriers for epizootic spread, in contrast to deserts and mountains. The mean dispersal rate of skunk rabies was lower than that of the raccoon and fox rabies. Viral lineages circulate in their areas with limited evidence of geographic spread during decades. However, spatiotemporal reconstruction shows that after a long period of stability the dispersal rate and wavefront velocity of SCSK are increasing. Our results indicate that there is a need to develop control measures for SCSK, and suggest how such measure can be implemented most efficiently. Our approach can be extrapolated to other rabies reservoirs and used as a tool for investigation of epizootic patterns and planning interventions towards disease elimination.

  13. Basic interest rate, bank competition and bank spread in personal credit operations in Brazil: A theoretical and empirical analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guilherme Jonas Costa da Silva

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The debate on the strategy of banking spread reduction in Brazil has been extended for a long time and was fundamentally concentrated in macroeconomics aspects. This paper has the goal of evaluate the new policy of banking spread reduction implemented by the federal government, which has added microeconomic aspects to this tendency. In order to do so, a mathematical model was presented that combines microeconomics aspects, such as was developed by Nakane (2001, with macroeconomics aspects, originally presented by Ho and Saunders (1981. This model was tested for the 25 largest banks in the period of March 2009 to March 2013, using the Panel Data Methodology. The GMM System model was the one that best fitted the data gathered and the results showed that both aspects are relevant in explaining the banking spread in Brazil, and should not be analyzed separately, as is frequently made in the literature, considering the econometric problems related to the omission bias of relevant variables.

  14. Indications of marine bioinvasion from network theory. An analysis of the global cargo ship network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kölzsch, A.; Blasius, B.

    2011-12-01

    The transport of huge amounts of small aquatic organisms in the ballast tanks and at the hull of large cargo ships leads to ever increasing rates of marine bioinvasion. In this study, we apply a network theoretic approach to examine the introduction of invasive species into new ports by global shipping. This is the first stage of the invasion process where it is still possible to intervene with regulating measures. We compile a selection of widely used and newly developed network properties and apply these to analyse the structure and spread characteristics of the directed and weighted global cargo ship network (GCSN). Our results reveal that the GCSN is highly efficient, shows small world characteristics and is positive assortative, indicating that quick spread of invasive organisms between ports is likely. The GCSN shows strong community structure and contains two large communities, the Atlantic and Pacific trading groups. Ports that appear as connector hubs and are of high centralities are the Suez and Panama Canal, Singapore and Shanghai. Furthermore, from robustness analyses and the network's percolation behaviour, we evaluate differences of onboard and in-port ballast water treatment, set them into context with previous studies and advise bioinvasion management strategies.

  15. Epidemic spreading induced by diversity of agents' mobility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Jie; Chung, Ning Ning; Chew, Lock Yue; Lai, Choy Heng

    2012-08-01

    In this paper, we study the impact of the preference of an individual for public transport on the spread of infectious disease, through a quantity known as the public mobility. Our theoretical and numerical results based on a constructed model reveal that if the average public mobility of the agents is fixed, an increase in the diversity of the agents' public mobility reduces the epidemic threshold, beyond which an enhancement in the rate of infection is observed. Our findings provide an approach to improve the resistance of a society against infectious disease, while preserving the utilization rate of the public transportation system.

  16. Globalization, English Language Policy, and Teacher Agency: Focus on Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamid, M. Obaidul; Nguyen, Hoa Thi Mai

    2016-01-01

    This paper focuses on English teachers in Asia in the context of globalization, the global spread of English and the emergence of English as an "Asian language." It highlights the dilemmas facing these teachers in meeting the growing social demands of English proficiency in a technology-influenced, managerial and neoliberal education…

  17. The reconciliation of an F-region irregularity model with sunspot-cycle variations in spread-F occurrence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singleton, D.G.

    1974-11-01

    A recently proposed means of combining models of ionospheric F-layer peak electron density and irregularity incremental electron density (ΔN) so as to simulate the global occurrence probability of the frequency spreading component of spread-F is discussed. This procedure is then used to model experimental spread-F occurrence results. It is found possible to readily simulate the sunspot-maximum results, independently of season, with only small adjustments to the amplitudes of the empirical expressions used to ΔN in the several latitude regimes. However, at sunspot minimum and for each season, the ΔN model requires modification in the equatorial and mid-latitude regions of high irregularity incidence, before successful simulations of the spread-F data can be obtained. These modifications, which include a broadening of the equatorial region and a polewards shift to the mid-latitude region with decreasing sunspot number, are discussed in detail. It is concluded that the scintillation data base, from which the original ΔN model derives, is not sufficiently representative with regard to sunspot number and magnetic index. The use of the spread-F adaptation of the ΔN model, as well as its original scintillation version, to rectify these failings of the ΔN model are also discussed. (author)

  18. Fluorescent visualization of a spreading surfactant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fallest, David W; Lichtenberger, Adele M; Fox, Christopher J; Daniels, Karen E, E-mail: kdaniel@ncsu.ed [Department of Physics, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695 (United States)

    2010-07-15

    The spreading of surfactants on thin films is an industrially and medically important phenomenon, but the dynamics are highly nonlinear and visualization of the surfactant dynamics has been a long-standing experimental challenge. We perform the first quantitative, spatiotemporally resolved measurements of the spreading of an insoluble surfactant on a thin fluid layer. During the spreading process, we directly observe both the radial height profile of the spreading droplet and the spatial distribution of the fluorescently tagged surfactant. We find that the leading edge of a spreading circular layer of surfactant forms a Marangoni ridge in the underlying fluid, with a trough trailing the ridge as expected. However, several novel features are observed using the fluorescence technique, including a peak in the surfactant concentration that trails the leading edge, and a flat, monolayer-scale spreading film that differs from concentration profiles predicted by current models. Both the Marangoni ridge and the surfactant leading edge can be described to spread as R{approx}t{sup {delta}}. We find spreading exponents {delta}{sub H}{approx}0.30 and {delta}{sub {Gamma}}{approx}0.22 for the ridge peak and surfactant leading edge, respectively, which are in good agreement with theoretical predictions of {delta}=1/4. In addition, we observe that the surfactant leading edge initially leads the peak of the Marangoni ridge, with the peak later catching up to the leading edge.

  19. Global environment and cogeneration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miyahara, Atsushi

    1992-01-01

    The environment problems on global scale have been highlighted in addition to the local problems due to the rapid increase of population, the increase of energy demand and so on. The global environment summit was held in Brazil. Now, global environment problems are the problems for mankind, and their importance seems to increase toward 21st century. In such circumstances, cogeneration can reduce carbon dioxide emission in addition to energy conservation, therefore, attention has been paid as the countermeasure for global environment. The background of global environment problems is explained. As to the effectiveness of cogeneration for global environment, the suitability of city gas to environment, energy conservation, the reduction of carbon dioxide and nitrogen oxides emission are discussed. As for the state of spread of cogeneration, as of March, 1992, those of 2250 MW in terms of power generation capacity have been installed in Japan. It is forecast that cogeneration will increase hereafter. As the future systems of cogeneration, city and industry energy center conception, industrial repowering, multiple house cogeneration and fuel cells are described. (K.I.)

  20. The global financial crisis and the behavior of short-term interest rates: International and Serbian aspects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Đukić Đorđe

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Throughout the current global financial crisis the market has continued to fall due to a lack of confidence of those banks that are not yet prepared to lend on the interbank money market. For instance, the negative repercussions of the crisis onto the Serbian financial sector have created a number of issues including a significant increase in lending rates, a difficulty, or impossibility, for the corporate sector to use cheap cross-border loans and a reduction in the supply of foreign exchange on that basis. The inability of the National Bank of Serbia to follow the aggressive reduction of the key interest rate that has been implemented by central banks in developed countries, partly explains the lack of a decline in short-term interest rates by the Serbian banking industry. The first section of the paper focuses on the effects of the financial crisis through the behavior of short-term interest rates in the US and Europe, while the second section gives an estimation of the effects of the global financial crisis on interest rates in the banking industry in Serbia.

  1. Global water cycle amplifying at less than the Clausius-Clapeyron rate

    OpenAIRE

    Skliris, Nikolaos; Zika, Jan D.; Nurser, George; Josey, Simon A.; Marsh, Robert

    2016-01-01

    A change in the cycle of water from dry to wet regions of the globe would have far reaching impact on humanity. As air warms, its capacity to hold water increases at the Clausius-Clapeyron rate (CC, approximately 7%?°C?1). Surface ocean salinity observations have suggested the water cycle has amplified at close to CC following recent global warming, a result that was found to be at odds with state-of the art climate models. Here we employ a method based on water mass transformation theory for...

  2. Reinforcement-driven spread of innovations and fads

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krapivsky, P L; Redner, S; Volovik, D

    2011-01-01

    We investigate how social reinforcement drives the spread of permanent innovations and transient fads. We account for social reinforcement by endowing each individual with M + 1 possible awareness states 0, 1, 2,..., M, with state M corresponding to adopting an innovation. An individual with awareness k 1−1/M for M > 1. When individuals can abandon the innovation at rate λ, the population fraction that remains clueless about the fad undergoes a phase transition at a critical rate λ c ; this transition is second order for M = 1 and first order for M > 1, with macroscopic fluctuations accompanying the latter. The time for the fad to disappear has an intriguing non-monotonic dependence on λ

  3. Phylogeographic variation in recombination rates within a global clone of Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Castillo-Ramirez, Santiago; Corander, Jukka; Marttinen, Pekka

    2012-01-01

    by employing a recently developed Bayesian approach, BRATNextGen, for detecting recombination on an expanded NGS dataset of the globally disseminated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) clone ST239. RESULTS: The data confirm strong geographical clustering at continental, national and city scales...... that the rapid global dissemination of a single pathogenic bacterial clone results in local variation in measured recombination rates. Possible explanatory variables include the size and time since emergence of each defined sub-population (as determined by the sampling frame), variation in transmission dynamics...

  4. The Impact of the Term Auction Facility on the Liquidity Risk Premium and Unsecured Interbank Spreads

    OpenAIRE

    Syrstad, Olav

    2014-01-01

    This paper investigates the effectiveness of the Federal Reserve's Term Auction Facility (TAF) in alleviating the liquidity shortage in USD and reducing the spread between the 3-month Libor rate and the expected policy rate. I construct a proxy for the 3-month liquidity risk premium based on data from the FX forward market which enables me to (i) decompose the Libor spread into a liquidity premium and a credit premium, and (ii) test the effectiveness of the TAF in reducing the liquidity premi...

  5. Language Learning Motivation, Global English and Study Modes: A Comparative Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lanvers, Ursula

    2017-01-01

    Exploring the popular explanation that the global spread of English may demotivate students with English as their first language to learn other languages, this study investigates relations between student motivation and perception of Global English and tests for differences between traditional "campus" and distance university students…

  6. Turbulence Spreading into Linearly Stable Zone and Transport Scaling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hahm, T.S.; Diamond, P.H.; Lin, Z.; Itoh, K.; Itoh, S.-I.

    2003-01-01

    We study the simplest problem of turbulence spreading corresponding to the spatio-temporal propagation of a patch of turbulence from a region where it is locally excited to a region of weaker excitation, or even local damping. A single model equation for the local turbulence intensity I(x, t) includes the effects of local linear growth and damping, spatially local nonlinear coupling to dissipation and spatial scattering of turbulence energy induced by nonlinear coupling. In the absence of dissipation, the front propagation into the linearly stable zone occurs with the property of rapid progression at small t, followed by slower subdiffusive progression at late times. The turbulence radial spreading into the linearly stable zone reduces the turbulent intensity in the linearly unstable zone, and introduces an additional dependence on the rho* is always equal to rho i/a to the turbulent intensity and the transport scaling. These are in broad, semi-quantitative agreements with a number of global gyrokinetic simulation results with zonal flows and without zonal flows. The front propagation stops when the radial flux of fluctuation energy from the linearly unstable region is balanced by local dissipation in the linearly stable region

  7. Does media coverage influence the spread of drug addiction?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Mingju; Liu, Sanyang; Li, Jun

    2017-09-01

    In this paper, a three dimensional drug model is constructed to investigate the impact of media coverage on the spread and control of drug addiction. The dynamical behavior of the model is studied by using the basic reproduction number R0. The drug-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if R0 drug addiction equilibrium is locally stable if R0 > 1. The results demonstrate that the media effect in human population cannot change the stabilities of equilibria but can affect the number of drug addicts. Sensitivity analyses are performed to seek for effective control measures for drug treatment. Numerical simulations are given to support the theoretical results.

  8. Heat Transfer to a Thin Solid Combustible in Flame Spreading at Microgravity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharjee, S.; Altenkirch, R. A.; Olson, S. L.; Sotos, R. G.

    1991-01-01

    The heat transfer rate to a thin solid combustible from an attached diffusion flame, spreading across the surface of the combustible in a quiescent, microgravity environment, was determined from measurements made in the drop tower facility at NASA-Lewis Research Center. With first-order Arrhenius pyrolysis kinetics, the solid-phase mass and energy equations along with the measured spread rate and surface temperature profiles were used to calculate the net heat flux to the surface. Results of the measurements are compared to the numerical solution of the complete set of coupled differential equations that describes the temperature, species, and velocity fields in the gas and solid phases. The theory and experiment agree on the major qualitative features of the heat transfer. Some fundamental differences are attributed to the neglect of radiation in the theoretical model.

  9. The spread of true and false news online.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vosoughi, Soroush; Roy, Deb; Aral, Sinan

    2018-03-09

    We investigated the differential diffusion of all of the verified true and false news stories distributed on Twitter from 2006 to 2017. The data comprise ~126,000 stories tweeted by ~3 million people more than 4.5 million times. We classified news as true or false using information from six independent fact-checking organizations that exhibited 95 to 98% agreement on the classifications. Falsehood diffused significantly farther, faster, deeper, and more broadly than the truth in all categories of information, and the effects were more pronounced for false political news than for false news about terrorism, natural disasters, science, urban legends, or financial information. We found that false news was more novel than true news, which suggests that people were more likely to share novel information. Whereas false stories inspired fear, disgust, and surprise in replies, true stories inspired anticipation, sadness, joy, and trust. Contrary to conventional wisdom, robots accelerated the spread of true and false news at the same rate, implying that false news spreads more than the truth because humans, not robots, are more likely to spread it. Copyright © 2018 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.

  10. The landscape genetics of infectious disease emergence and spread.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biek, Roman; Real, Leslie A

    2010-09-01

    The spread of parasites is inherently a spatial process often embedded in physically complex landscapes. It is therefore not surprising that infectious disease researchers are increasingly taking a landscape genetics perspective to elucidate mechanisms underlying basic ecological processes driving infectious disease dynamics and to understand the linkage between spatially dependent population processes and the geographic distribution of genetic variation within both hosts and parasites. The increasing availability of genetic information on hosts and parasites when coupled to their ecological interactions can lead to insights for predicting patterns of disease emergence, spread and control. Here, we review research progress in this area based on four different motivations for the application of landscape genetics approaches: (i) assessing the spatial organization of genetic variation in parasites as a function of environmental variability, (ii) using host population genetic structure as a means to parameterize ecological dynamics that indirectly influence parasite populations, for example, gene flow and movement pathways across heterogeneous landscapes and the concurrent transport of infectious agents, (iii) elucidating the temporal and spatial scales of disease processes and (iv) reconstructing and understanding infectious disease invasion. Throughout this review, we emphasize that landscape genetic principles are relevant to infection dynamics across a range of scales from within host dynamics to global geographic patterns and that they can also be applied to unconventional 'landscapes' such as heterogeneous contact networks underlying the spread of human and livestock diseases. We conclude by discussing some general considerations and problems for inferring epidemiological processes from genetic data and try to identify possible future directions and applications for this rapidly expanding field.

  11. Actomyosin organisation for adhesion, spreading, growth and movement in chick fibroblasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Couchman, J R; Rees, D A

    1979-01-01

    for anchorage-dependent growth, rather than facilitate their movement. The fibroblasts specialized for movement from the explants, though equally well spread, make contact with substratum through extensive areas of relatively unspecialized membrane, have less well developed stress fibres and a low growth rate....

  12. A Global Data Set of Leaf Photosynthetic Rates, Leaf N and P, and Specific Leaf Area

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: This global data set of photosynthetic rates and leaf nutrient traits was compiled from a comprehensive literature review. It includes estimates of Vcmax...

  13. A Global Data Set of Leaf Photosynthetic Rates, Leaf N and P, and Specific Leaf Area

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This global data set of photosynthetic rates and leaf nutrient traits was compiled from a comprehensive literature review. It includes estimates of Vcmax (maximum...

  14. [Environmental drivers of emergence and spreading of Vibrio epidemics in South America].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gavilán, Ronnie G; Martínez-Urtaza, Jaime

    2011-03-01

    Vibrio cholerae and V. parahaemolyticus are the two Vibrio species with a major impact on human health. Diseases caused by both pathogens are acquiring increasing relevance due to their expansion at global scale. In this paper, we resume the ecological aspects associated with the arrival and spreading of infections caused by V. parahaemolyticus and V. cholerae in Peru from a South American perspective. Moreover, we discuss the similarities in the emergence in Peru of cholera cases in 1991 and V. parahaemolyticus infections in 1997. These constituted exceptional experiments to evaluate the relationships between the Vibrio epidemics and changes in the environment. The epidemic radiations of V. cholerae and V. parahaemolyticus constitute to clear examples supporting the oceanic dispersion of pathogenic vibrios and have enabled the identification of El Niño events as a potential mechanism for the spreading of diseases through the ocean.

  15. Global health in an open world requires an open mind

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sodemann, Morten

    Why global health? Health has never been more clearly global than now. Social media have reorganized our way of talking, discussing and interacting globally by spreading happiness, hate speech, obesity and knowledge at the same time. Diseases have never had respect for border control. Polio has s...... is not a fashionable subject anymore but the story of HIV/AIDS is a lesson to global health decision makers. Rephrasing Elisabeth Pisani: whores have wisdom, and we had better open our minds and face it...

  16. Spreading to localized targets in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Ye; Ma, Long; Zeng, An; Wang, Wen-Xu

    2016-12-01

    As an important type of dynamics on complex networks, spreading is widely used to model many real processes such as the epidemic contagion and information propagation. One of the most significant research questions in spreading is to rank the spreading ability of nodes in the network. To this end, substantial effort has been made and a variety of effective methods have been proposed. These methods usually define the spreading ability of a node as the number of finally infected nodes given that the spreading is initialized from the node. However, in many real cases such as advertising and news propagation, the spreading only aims to cover a specific group of nodes. Therefore, it is necessary to study the spreading ability of nodes towards localized targets in complex networks. In this paper, we propose a reversed local path algorithm for this problem. Simulation results show that our method outperforms the existing methods in identifying the influential nodes with respect to these localized targets. Moreover, the influential spreaders identified by our method can effectively avoid infecting the non-target nodes in the spreading process.

  17. Active spreading processes at ultraslow mid-ocean ridges: The 1999-2001 seismo-volcanic episode at 85°E Gakkel ridge, Arctic Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlindwein, Vera; Riedel, Carsten; Korger, Edith; Läderach, Christine

    2010-05-01

    The rate of magma and crustal production at mid-ocean ridges is thought to decrease with decreasing spreading rate. At ultraslow spreading rates below 10-20 mm/y full rate, heat loss by conduction greatly reduces melt production with less melt produced at increasingly greater depths. Gakkel Ridge, the actively spreading mid-ocean ridge in the Arctic Ocean, opens at rates of 14 mm/y in the west decreasing to less than 6 mm/y at its eastern termination and demonstrates that magma production is not only a function of spreading rate. Whereas amagmatic spreading takes place at rates of about 12-10 mm/y, focussed melt production occurs at even lower spreading rates in long-lived discrete volcanic centres. One such centre is the 85°E volcanic complex at eastern Gakkel ridge where in 1999 a teleseismically recorded earthquake swarm consisting of more than 250 earthquakes over 9 months signalled the onset of an active spreading episode. The earthquake swarm is believed to be associated with volcanic activity although no concurrent lava effusion was found. We analysed the teleseismic earthquake swarm together with visual observation and microseismic data recorded at this site in 2001 and 2007 and noted the following characteristics which may be indicative for volcanic spreading events at the still poorly explored ultraslow spreading ridges: - unusual duration: The 1999 earthquake swarm lasted over 9 months rather than a few weeks as observed on faster spreading ridges. In addition, in 2001 seismoacoustic sounds which we interpret as gas discharge in Strombolian eruptions and a giant event plume maintained over more than one year indicate waxing and waning volcanic activity since 1999. - unusual strength: The earthquake swarm was detected at teleseismic distances of more than 1000 km and included 11 events with a magnitude >5. No other confirmed mid-ocean ridge eruption released a comparable seismic moment. Rather than focussing in a narrow area or showing pronounced

  18. Estimation of wave directional spreading

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Deo, M.C.; Gondane, D.S.; SanilKumar, V.

    One of the useful measures of waves directional spreading at a given location is the directional spreading parameter. This paper presents a new approach to arrive at its characteristic value using the computational technique of Artificial Neural...

  19. Metabolic and hemodynamic activation of postischemic rat brain by cortical spreading depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kocher, M

    1990-07-01

    Following transient ischemia of the brain, the coupling between somatosensory activation and the hemodynamic-metabolic response is abolished for a certain period despite the partial recovery of somatosensory evoked responses. To determine whether this disturbance is due to alterations of the stimulus-induced neuronal excitation or to a breakdown of the coupling mechanisms, cortical spreading depression was used as a metabolic stimulus in rats before and after ischemia. Adult rats were subjected to 30 min of global forebrain ischemia and 3-6 h of recirculation. EEG, cortical direct current (DC) potential, and laser-Doppler flow were continuously recorded. Local CBF (LCBF), local CMRglc (LCMRglc), regional tissue contents of ATP, glucose, and lactate, and regional pH were determined by quantitative autoradiography, substrate-induced bioluminescence, and fluorometry. Amplitude and frequency of the DC shifts did not differ between groups. In control animals, spreading depression induced a 77% rise in cortical glucose consumption, a 66% rise in lactate content, and a drop in tissue pH of 0.3 unit. ATP and glucose contents were not depleted. During the passage of DC shifts, transient increases (less than 2 min) in laser-Doppler flow were observed, followed by a post-spreading depression hypoperfusion. A comparable although less expressed pattern of hemodynamic and metabolic changes was observed in the postischemic rats. Although baseline LCMRglc was depressed after ischemia, it was activated 47% during spreading depression. Lactate increased by 26%, pH decreased by 0.3 unit, and ATP and glucose remained unchanged. The extent of the transient increase in laser-Doppler flow did not differ from that of the control group, and a post-spreading depression hypoperfusion was also found.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

  20. Invasive Plants on Rangelands: a Global Threat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Invasive plant species are spreading and invading rangelands at an unprecedented rate costing ranchers billions of dollars to control invasive plants each year. In its simplest form, the invasion process has four primary stages, including introduction, establishment, spread and colonization. Th...

  1. Review Essay: Moving beyond Global Encounters toward Global Reciprocity: Christian Education in East Asian Perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hyun-Sook

    2015-01-01

    Christianity as a world religion was propagated from Europe and North America to Africa and Asia. Global Christianity spread to East Asia when Robert Morrison (1782-1843) arrived in Canton, China in 1807, and later in the late 19th-century Protestant missionaries from North America arrived in Japan and Korea. This Christianity experienced a modern…

  2. Health, globalization and developing countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cilingiroglu, Nesrin

    2005-02-01

    In health care today, scientific and technological frontiers are expanding at unprecedented rates, even as economic and financial pressures shrink profit margins, intensify competition, and constrain the funds available for investment. Therefore, the world today has more economic, and social opportunities for people than 10 or 100 years since globalization has created a new ground somewhat characterized by rapid economic transformation, deregulation of national markets by new trade regimes, amazing transport, electronic communication possibilities and high turnover of foreign investment and capital flow as well as skilled labor. These trends can easily mask great inequalities in developing countries such as importation and spreading of infectious and non-communicable diseases; miniaturization of movement of medical technology; health sector trades management driven by economics without consideration to the social and health aspects and its effects, increasing health inequalities and their economic and social burden creation; multinational companies' cheap labor employment promotion in widening income differentials; and others. As a matter of fact, all these factors are major determinants of ill health. Health authorities of developing countries have to strengthen their regulatory framework in order to ensure that national health systems derive maximum benefit in terms of equity, quality and efficiency, while reducing potential social cost to a minimum generated risky side of globalization.

  3. Demostration of 520 Gb/s/λ pre-equalized DFT-spread PDM-16QAM-OFDM signal transmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fan; Yu, Jianjun; Cao, Zizheng; Chen, Ming; Zhang, Junwen; Li, Xinying

    2016-02-08

    In this paper, we successfully transmit 8 × 520 Gb/s pre-equalized DFT-spread PDM-16QAM orthogonal frequency-division multiplexing (OFDM) signal over 840 km SMF with BER under 2.4 × 10(-2). We discuss how to obtain accurate tranceivers' response during pre-equalization for DFT-spread OFDM with coherent detection and we find conventional OFDM symbols training sequences (TSs) outperform DFT-spread OFDM symbols TSs in obtaining channel response for pre-equalization and equalization. Additionally, the optimal IFFT/FFT size is explored for the pre-equalized DFT-spread PDM-16QAM-OFDM transmission systems. It is the first time to realize 400 Gb/s/λ net rate OFDM signal transmission.

  4. Spreading gossip in social networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lind, Pedro G.; da Silva, Luciano R.; Andrade, José S., Jr.; Herrmann, Hans J.

    2007-09-01

    We study a simple model of information propagation in social networks, where two quantities are introduced: the spread factor, which measures the average maximal reachability of the neighbors of a given node that interchange information among each other, and the spreading time needed for the information to reach such a fraction of nodes. When the information refers to a particular node at which both quantities are measured, the model can be taken as a model for gossip propagation. In this context, we apply the model to real empirical networks of social acquaintances and compare the underlying spreading dynamics with different types of scale-free and small-world networks. We find that the number of friendship connections strongly influences the probability of being gossiped. Finally, we discuss how the spread factor is able to be applied to other situations.

  5. Spreading gossip in social networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lind, Pedro G; da Silva, Luciano R; Andrade, José S; Herrmann, Hans J

    2007-09-01

    We study a simple model of information propagation in social networks, where two quantities are introduced: the spread factor, which measures the average maximal reachability of the neighbors of a given node that interchange information among each other, and the spreading time needed for the information to reach such a fraction of nodes. When the information refers to a particular node at which both quantities are measured, the model can be taken as a model for gossip propagation. In this context, we apply the model to real empirical networks of social acquaintances and compare the underlying spreading dynamics with different types of scale-free and small-world networks. We find that the number of friendship connections strongly influences the probability of being gossiped. Finally, we discuss how the spread factor is able to be applied to other situations.

  6. Population History and Pathways of Spread of the Plant Pathogen Phytophthora plurivora

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoebel, Corine N.; Stewart, Jane; Gruenwald, Niklaus J.; Rigling, Daniel; Prospero, Simone

    2014-01-01

    Human activity has been shown to considerably affect the spread of dangerous pests and pathogens worldwide. Therefore, strict regulations of international trade exist for particularly harmful pathogenic organisms. Phytophthora plurivora, which is not subject to regulations, is a plant pathogen frequently found on a broad range of host species, both in natural and artificial environments. It is supposed to be native to Europe while resident populations are also present in the US. We characterized a hierarchical sample of isolates from Europe and the US and conducted coalescent-, migration, and population genetic analysis of sequence and microsatellite data, to determine the pathways of spread and the demographic history of this pathogen. We found P. plurivora populations to be moderately diverse but not geographically structured. High levels of gene flow were observed within Europe and unidirectional from Europe to the US. Coalescent analyses revealed a signal of a recent expansion of the global P. plurivora population. Our study shows that P. plurivora has most likely been spread around the world by nursery trade of diseased plant material. In particular, P. plurivora was introduced into the US from Europe. International trade has allowed the pathogen to colonize new environments and/or hosts, resulting in population growth. PMID:24427303

  7. COMBINED SURGERY OF SPREAD THYROID CANCER

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Zh. Brzhezovsky

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Results of treating of 99 patients with differentiated thyroid cancer spreading beyond the capsule of the organ were analysed. In most cases with spreading the tumor to the tracheal rings performing of organ-preserving operations (from “window-like” tracheal resections to circular tracheal resection with intertracheal anastomosis is possible. Choosing of type of operation to be performed depends on localisation and spread of tumor invasion of trachea, pharynx and esophagus. Using of combined operations in patients with locally-spread thyroid cancer allows to achieve long and stable remission in most of the cases.

  8. Pricing the option adjust spread of Brazilian Eurobonds

    OpenAIRE

    Gonçalves, Franklin de O.

    1997-01-01

    This paper presents results of a pricing system to compute the option adjusted spread ("DAS") of Eurobonds issued by Brazilian firms. The system computes the "DAS" over US treasury rates taktng imo account the embedded options present on these bonds. These options can be calls ("callable bond"), puts ("putable bond") or combinations ("callable and putable bond"). The pricing model takes into account the evolution of the term structure along time, is compatible with the observab...

  9. Development and validation of a new global well-being outcomes rating scale for integrative medicine research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bell Iris R

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Researchers are finding limitations of currently available disease-focused questionnaire tools for outcome studies in complementary and alternative medicine/integrative medicine (CAM/IM. Methods Three substudies investigated the new one-item visual analogue Arizona Integrative Outcomes Scale (AIOS, which assesses self-rated global sense of spiritual, social, mental, emotional, and physical well-being over the past 24 hours and the past month. The first study tested the scale's ability to discriminate unhealthy individuals (n = 50 from healthy individuals (n = 50 in a rehabilitation outpatient clinic sample. The second study examined the concurrent validity of the AIOS by comparing ratings of global well-being to degree of psychological distress as measured by the Brief Symptom Inventory (BSI in undergraduate college students (N = 458. The third study evaluated the relationships between the AIOS and positively- and negatively-valenced tools (Positive and Negative Affect Scale and the Positive States of Mind Scale in a different sample of undergraduate students (N = 62. Results Substudy (i Rehabilitation patients scored significantly lower than the healthy controls on both forms of the AIOS and a current global health rating. The AIOS 24-hours correlated moderately and significantly with global health (patients r = 0.50; controls r = 0.45. AIOS 1-month correlations with global health were stronger within the controls (patients r = 0.36; controls r = 0.50. Controls (r = 0.64 had a higher correlation between the AIOS 24-hour and 1-month forms than did the patients (r = 0.33, which is consistent with the presumptive improvement in the patients' condition over the previous 30 days in rehabilitation. Substudy (ii In undergraduate students, AIOS scores were inversely related to distress ratings, as measured by the global severity index on the BSI (rAIOS24h = -0.42, rAIOS1month = -0.40. Substudy (iii AIOS scores were significantly

  10. Initial spread of {sup 137}Cs from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant over the Japan continental shelf. A study using a high-resolution, global-coastal nested ocean model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lai, Z. [Sun Yat-Sen Univ., Guangzhou (China). School of Marine Sciences; Univ. of Massachusetts-Dartmouth, New Bedford, MA (United States). School for Marine Science and Technology; Key Laboratory of Marine Resources and Coastal Engineering in Guangdong Province, Guangzhou (China); Chen, C.; Lin, H. [Univ. of Massachusetts-Dartmouth, New Bedford, MA (United States). School for Marine Science and Technology; Shanghai Ocean Univ. (China). International Center for Marine Studies; Beardsley, R. [Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA (United States). Dept. of Physical Oceanography; Ji, R. [Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA (United States). Dept. of Biology; Shanghai Ocean Univ. (China). International Center for Marine Studies; Sasaki, J. [The Univ. of Tokyo, Kashiwa (Japan). Dept. of Socio-Cultural Environmental Studies; Lin, J. [Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA (United States). Dept. of Geology and Geophysics

    2013-07-01

    The 11 March 2011 tsunami triggered by the M9 and M7.9 earthquakes off the Tohoku coast destroyed facilities at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP) leading to a significant long-term flow of the radionuclide {sup 137}Cs into coastal waters. A high-resolution, global-coastal nested ocean model was first constructed to simulate the 11 March tsunami and coastal inundation. Based on the model's success in reproducing the observed tsunami and coastal inundation, model experiments were then conducted with differing grid resolution to assess the initial spread of {sup 137}Cs over the eastern shelf of Japan. The {sup 137}Cs was tracked as a conservative tracer (without radioactive decay) in the three-dimensional model flow field over the period of 26 March-31 August 2011. The results clearly show that for the same {sup 137}Cs discharge, the model-predicted spreading of {sup 137}Cs was sensitive not only to model resolution but also the FNPP seawall structure. A coarse-resolution (∝2 km) model simulation led to an overestimation of lateral diffusion and thus faster dispersion of {sup 137}Cs from the coast to the deep ocean, while advective processes played a more significant role when the model resolution at and around the FNPP was refined to ∝5 m. By resolving the pathways from the leaking source to the southern and northern discharge canals, the high-resolution model better predicted the {sup 137}Cs spreading in the inner shelf where in situ measurements were made at 30 km off the coast. The overestimation of {sup 137}Cs concentration near the coast is thought to be due to the omission of sedimentation and biogeochemical processes as well as uncertainties in the amount of {sup 137}Cs leaking from the source in the model. As a result, a biogeochemical module should be included in the model for more realistic simulations of the fate and spreading of {sup 137}Cs in the ocean.

  11. Reductions in soil surface albedo as a function of biochar application rate: implications for global radiative forcing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verheijen, Frank G A; Bastos, Ana Catarina; Keizer, Jan Jacob; Jeffery, Simon; Van der Velde, Marijn; Penížek, Vít; Beland, Martin

    2013-01-01

    Biochar can be defined as pyrolysed (charred) biomass produced for application to soils with the aim of mitigating global climate change while improving soil functions. Sustainable biochar application to soils has been estimated to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by 71–130 Pg CO 2 -C e over 100 years, indicating an important potential to mitigate climate change. However, these estimates ignored changes in soil surface reflection by the application of dark-coloured biochar. Through a laboratory experiment we show a strong tendency for soil surface albedo to decrease as a power decay function with increasing biochar application rate, depending on soil moisture content, biochar application method and land use. Surface application of biochar resulted in strong reductions in soil surface albedo even at relatively low application rates. As a first assessment of the implications for climate change mitigation of these biochar–albedo relationships, we applied a first order global energy balance model to compare negative radiative forcings (from avoided CO 2 emissions) with positive radiative forcings (from reduced soil surface albedos). For a global-scale biochar application equivalent to 120 t ha −1 , we obtained reductions in negative radiative forcings of 5 and 11% for croplands and 11 and 23% for grasslands, when incorporating biochar into the topsoil or applying it to the soil surface, respectively. For a lower global biochar application rate (equivalent to 10 t ha −1 ), these reductions amounted to 13 and 44% for croplands and 28 and 94% for grasslands. Thus, our findings revealed the importance of including changes in soil surface albedo in studies assessing the net climate change mitigation potential of biochar, and we discuss the urgent need for field studies and more detailed spatiotemporal modelling. (letter)

  12. Epidemic spreading through direct and indirect interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganguly, Niloy; Krueger, Tyll; Mukherjee, Animesh; Saha, Sudipta

    2014-09-01

    In this paper we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic dynamics, considering a specialized setting where popular places (termed passive entities) are visited by agents (termed active entities). We consider two types of spreading dynamics: direct spreading, where the active entities infect each other while visiting the passive entities, and indirect spreading, where the passive entities act as carriers and the infection is spread via them. We investigate in particular the effect of selection strategy, i.e., the way passive entities are chosen, in the spread of epidemics. We introduce a mathematical framework to study the effect of an arbitrary selection strategy and derive formulas for prevalence, extinction probabilities, and epidemic thresholds for both indirect and direct spreading. We also obtain a very simple relationship between the extinction probability and the prevalence. We pay special attention to preferential selection and derive exact formulas. The analysis reveals that an increase in the diversity in the selection process lowers the epidemic thresholds. Comparing the direct and indirect spreading, we identify regions in the parameter space where the prevalence of the indirect spreading is higher than the direct one.

  13. A model for multiseasonal spread of verticillium wilt of lettuce.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, B M; Subbarao, K V

    2014-09-01

    Verticillium wilt, caused by Verticillium dahliae, is a destructive disease in lettuce, and the pathogen is seedborne. Even though maximum seed infestation rates of lettuce seed lots, it is necessary to establish acceptable contamination thresholds to prevent introduction and establishment of the pathogen in lettuce production fields. However, introduction of inoculum into lettuce fields for experimental purposes to determine its long term effects is undesirable. Therefore, we constructed a simulation model to study the spread of Verticillium wilt following pathogen introduction from seed. The model consists of four components: the first for simulating infection of host plants, the second for simulating reproduction of microsclerotia on diseased plants, the third for simulating the survival of microsclerotia, and the fourth for simulating the dispersal of microsclerotia. The simulation results demonstrated that the inoculum density-disease incidence curve parameters and the dispersal gradients affect disease spread in the field. Although a steep dispersal gradient facilitated the establishment of the disease in a new field with a low inoculum density, a long-tail gradient allowed microsclerotia to be dispersed over greater distances, promoting the disease spread in fields with high inoculum density. The simulation results also revealed the importance of avoiding successive lettuce crops in the same field, reducing survival rate of microsclerotia between crops, and the need for breeding resistance against V. dahliae in lettuce cultivars to lower the number of microsclerotia formed on each diseased plant. The simulation results, however, suggested that, even with a low seed infestation rate, the pathogen would eventually become established if susceptible lettuce cultivars were grown consecutively in the same field for many years. A threshold for seed infestation can be established only when two of the three drivers of the disease-(i) low microsclerotia production per

  14. Microfluidic high viability neural cell separation using viscoelastically tuned hydrodynamic spreading

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Zhigang; Hjort, Klas; Wicher, Grzegorz

    2008-01-01

    polymer solution of alginic sodium, the spreading behavior was investigated at different polymer concentrations and flow rates. Particle separation was studied in the same detail for 9.9 microm and 1.9 microm latex beads. Using buffered aqueous solutions and further surface treatments to protect from cell...

  15. 中国公司债券利差影响因素研究--基于评级信息的分析%The Determinants of Credit Spreads of Corporate Bonds in China---An Analysis Based on the Rating Information

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郑玉仙

    2016-01-01

    This paper investigates the determinants of credit spread in Chinese corporate bond market based on the theory of credit spread decomposition. The findings reveal that the expected default accounts for a really small fraction of the after-tax spread in corporate rates over treasuries, and that the term structure of the risk-free rate, the liquidity risk premium and the PMI index all have strong explanatory powers for credit spread.%本文以信用利差分解理论为基础,结合债券评级信息,基于市场实际数据实证研究了中国公司债券市场信用利差的决定因素。结果表明,预期违约损失在税后信用利差中只占很小的比例,无风险利率的期限结构、流动性风险因子、宏观经济指标等因子都对信用利差有较显著的解释力。

  16. Superficial Spreading Melanoma „Slumbered“ Behind the Shadow of Onychomycosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trayanova E.

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Malignant melanoma is the most aggressive form of cutaneous cancer. Due to the continuously increasing rate of newly detected cases each year and because of its particular low survival rate, the scientific interest in this type of neoplasia is constantly growing. Sun exposure is identified as the major etiologic factor for malignant transformation of the melanocytes. According to the WHO, malignant melanoma is divided into four main groups, as the superficial spreading form is defined as the most “gentle” among them. The name of this subspecies does not have to “drowse” the attention of dermatologists considering the possible metastasic risk, even at a later stage. Due to lack of subjective complaints, patients do not seek active consultation on this occasion, as this type of lesions often remain missed within the clinical examination. Early diagnosis, however, as well as early surgical removal is the key to increasing the survival rate of the patients. We present a case of a 88 year-old female patient consulted with dermatologist on occasion of severe onychomycosis, as a pigment lesion on the anterior surface of the right leg. Clinically and dermatoscopically suspected superficial spreading melanoma was detected within the examination.

  17. Global health politics: neither solidarity nor policy: Comment on "Globalization and the diffusion of ideas: why we should acknowledge the roots of mainstream ideas in global health".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Méndez, Claudio A

    2014-07-01

    The global health agenda has been dominating the current global health policy debate. Furthermore, it has compelled countries to embrace strategies for tackling health inequalities in a wide range of public health areas. The article by Robert and colleagues highlights that although globalization has increased opportunities to share and spread ideas, there is still great asymmetry of power according to the countries' economic and political development. It also emphasizes how policy diffusion from High Income Countries (HICs) to Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs) have had flaws at understanding their political, economic, and cultural backgrounds while they are pursuing knowledge translation. Achieving a fair global health policy diffusion of ideas would imply a call for a renewal on political elites worldwide at coping global health politics. Accordingly, moving towards fairness in disseminating global health ideas should be driven by politics not only as one of the social determinants of health, but the main determinant of health and well-being among-and within-societies.

  18. The establishment and spread of myxomatosis and its effect on rabbit populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, J; Tittensor, A M

    1986-12-15

    The establishment of myxomatosis, the spread of the disease and its effects on rabbit populations in Australia and in Britain are briefly reviewed. Though the disease is endemic, with regular outbreaks in most rabbit populations, its effect is now much less dramatic than previously. Recent epidemiological studies have shown that the rate of spread of infection, the proportion of rabbits infected and the proportion dying from the disease are very much smaller than recorded in earlier outbreaks. The reasons for these changes are discussed, and the epidemiology of the disease in Britain is compared with that in Australia.

  19. Forecasting oil price movements with crack spread futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murat, Atilim; Tokat, Ekin

    2009-01-01

    In oil markets, the crack spread refers to the crude-product price relationship. Refiners are major participants in oil markets and they are primarily exposed to the crack spread. In other words, refiner activity is substantially driven by the objective of protecting the crack spread. Moreover, oil consumers are active participants in the oil hedging market and they are frequently exposed to the crack spread. From another perspective, hedge funds are heavily using crack spread to speculate in oil markets. Based on the high volume of crack spread futures trading in oil markets, the question we want to raise is whether the crack spread futures can be a good predictor of oil price movements. We investigated first whether there is a causal relationship between the crack spread futures and the spot oil markets in a vector error correction framework. We found the causal impact of crack spread futures on spot oil market both in the long- and the short-run after April 2003 where we detected a structural break in the model. To examine the forecasting performance, we use the random walk model (RWM) as a benchmark, and we also evaluate the forecasting power of crack spread futures against the crude oil futures. The results showed that (a) both the crack spread futures and the crude oil futures outperformed the RWM; and (b) the crack spread futures are almost as good as the crude oil futures in predicting the movements in spot oil markets. (author)

  20. Density profile evolution and nonequilibrium effects in partial and full spreading measurements of surface diffusion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nikunen, P.; Vattulainen, Ilpo Tapio; Ala-Nissila, T.

    2001-01-01

    in D-C(theta) depend on the initial density gradient and the initial state from which the spreading starts. To this end, we carry out extensive Monte Carlo simulations for a lattice-gas model of the O/W(110) system. Studies of submonolayer spreading from an initially ordered p(2x1) phase at theta = 1....../2 reveal that the spreading and diffusion rates in directions parallel and perpendicular to rows of oxygen atoms are significantly different within the ordered phase. Aside from this effect, we find that the degree of ordering in the initial phase has a relatively small impact on the overall behavior of D...

  1. Liquid spreading on ceramic-coated carbon nanotube films and patterned microstructures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Hangbo; Hart, A. John

    2015-11-01

    We study the capillary-driven liquid spreading behavior on films and microstructures of ceramic-coated vertically aligned carbon nanotubes (CNTs) fabricated on quartz substrates. The nanoscale porosity and micro-scale dimensions of the CNT structures, which can be precisely varied by the fabrication process, enable quantitative measurements that can be related to analytical models of the spreading behavior. Moreover, the conformal alumina coating by atomic layer deposition (ALD) prevents capillary-induced deformation of the CNTs upon meniscus recession, which has complicated previous studies of this topic. Washburn-like liquid spreading behavior is observed on non-patterned CNT surfaces, and is explained using a scaling model based on the balance of capillary driving force and the viscous drag force. Using these insights, we design patterned surfaces with controllable spreading rates and study the contact line pinning-depinning behavior. The nanoscale porosity, controllable surface chemistry, and mechanical stability of coated CNTs provide significantly enhanced liquid-solid interfacial area compared to solid microstructures. As a result, these surface designs may be useful for applications such as phase-change heat transfer and electrochemical energy storage. Funding for this project is provided by the National Institutes of Health and the MIT Center for Clean Water and Clean Energy supported by the King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals.

  2. The use of global rating scales for OSCEs in veterinary medicine.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emma K Read

    Full Text Available OSCEs (Objective Structured Clinical Examinations are widely used in health professions to assess clinical skills competence. Raters use standardized binary checklists (CL or multi-dimensional global rating scales (GRS to score candidates performing specific tasks. This study assessed the reliability of CL and GRS scores in the assessment of veterinary students, and is the first study to demonstrate the reliability of GRS within veterinary medical education. Twelve raters from two different schools (6 from University of Calgary [UCVM] and 6 from Royal (Dick School of Veterinary Studies [R(DSVS] were asked to score 12 students (6 from each school. All raters assessed all students (video recordings during 4 OSCE stations (bovine haltering, gowning and gloving, equine bandaging and skin suturing. Raters scored students using a CL, followed by the GRS. Novice raters (6 R(DSVS were assessed independently of expert raters (6 UCVM. Generalizability theory (G theory, analysis of variance (ANOVA and t-tests were used to determine the reliability of rater scores, assess any between school differences (by student, by rater, and determine if there were differences between CL and GRS scores. There was no significant difference in rater performance with use of the CL or the GRS. Scores from the CL were significantly higher than scores from the GRS. The reliability of checklist scores were .42 and .76 for novice and expert raters respectively. The reliability of the global rating scale scores were .7 and .86 for novice and expert raters respectively. A decision study (D-study showed that once trained using CL, GRS could be utilized to reliably score clinical skills in veterinary medicine with both novice and experienced raters.

  3. Risk Assessment of Diabetes Mellitus by Chaotic Globals to Heart Rate Variability via Six Power Spectra

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Garner David M.

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: The priniciple objective here is to analyze cardiovascular dynamics in diabetic subjects by actions related to heart rate variability (HRV. The correlation of chaotic globals is vital to evaluate the probability of dynamical diseases.

  4. Spreading a medication administration intervention organizationwide in six hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kliger, Julie; Singer, Sara; Hoffman, Frank; O'Neil, Edward

    2012-02-01

    Six hospitals from the San Francisco Bay Area participated in a 12-month quality improvement project conducted by the Integrated Nurse Leadership Program (INLP). A quality improvement intervention that focused on improving medication administration accuracy was spread from two pilot units to all inpatient units in the hospitals. INLP developed a 12-month curriculum, presented in a combination of off-site training sessions and hospital-based training and consultant-led meetings, to teach clinicians the key skills needed to drive organizationwide change. Each hospital established a nurse-led project team, as well as unit teams to address six safety processes designed to improve medication administration accuracy: compare medication to the medication administration record; keep medication labeled throughout; check two patient identifications; explain drug to patient (if applicable); chart immediately after administration; and protect process from distractions and interruptions. From baseline until one year after project completion, the six hospitals improved their medication accuracy rates, on average, from 83.4% to 98.0% in the spread units. The spread units also improved safety processes overall from 83.1% to 97.2%. During the same time, the initial pilot units also continued to improve accuracy from 94.0% to 96.8% and safety processes overall from 95.3% to 97.2%. With thoughtful planning, engaging those doing the work early and focusing on the "human side of change" along with technical knowledge of improvement methodologies, organizations can spread initiatives enterprisewide. This program required significant training of frontline workers in problem-solving skills, leading change, team management, data tracking, and communication.

  5. Existence of global attractor for the Trojan Y Chromosome model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaopeng Zhao

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with the long time behavior of solution for the equation derived by the Trojan Y Chromosome (TYC model with spatial spread. Based on the regularity estimates for the semigroups and the classical existence theorem of global attractors, we prove that this equations possesses a global attractor in $H^k(\\Omega^4$ $(k\\geq 0$ space.

  6. Gossip spread in social network Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansson, Tobias

    2017-04-01

    Gossip almost inevitably arises in real social networks. In this article we investigate the relationship between the number of friends of a person and limits on how far gossip about that person can spread in the network. How far gossip travels in a network depends on two sets of factors: (a) factors determining gossip transmission from one person to the next and (b) factors determining network topology. For a simple model where gossip is spread among people who know the victim it is known that a standard scale-free network model produces a non-monotonic relationship between number of friends and expected relative spread of gossip, a pattern that is also observed in real networks (Lind et al., 2007). Here, we study gossip spread in two social network models (Toivonen et al., 2006; Vázquez, 2003) by exploring the parameter space of both models and fitting them to a real Facebook data set. Both models can produce the non-monotonic relationship of real networks more accurately than a standard scale-free model while also exhibiting more realistic variability in gossip spread. Of the two models, the one given in Vázquez (2003) best captures both the expected values and variability of gossip spread.

  7. Perineural spread in head and neck tumors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brea Álvarez, B; Tuñón Gómez, M

    2014-01-01

    Perineural spread is the dissemination of some types of head and neck tumors along nervous structures. Perineural spread has negative repercussions on treatment because it requires more extensive resection and larger fields of irradiation. Moreover, perineural spread is associated with increased local recurrence, and it is considered an independent indicator of poor prognosis in the TNM classification for tumor staging. However, perineural spread often goes undetected on imaging studies. In this update, we review the concept of perineural spread, its pathogenesis, and the main pathways and connections among the facial nerves, which are essential to understand this process. Furthermore, we discuss the appropriate techniques for imaging studies, and we describe and illustrate the typical imaging signs that help identify perineural spread on CT and MRI. Finally, we discuss the differential diagnosis with other entities. Copyright © 2013 SERAM. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  8. Mechanistic movement models to understand epidemic spread.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fofana, Abdou Moutalab; Hurford, Amy

    2017-05-05

    An overlooked aspect of disease ecology is considering how and why animals come into contact with one and other resulting in disease transmission. Mathematical models of disease spread frequently assume mass-action transmission, justified by stating that susceptible and infectious hosts mix readily, and foregoing any detailed description of host movement. Numerous recent studies have recorded, analysed and modelled animal movement. These movement models describe how animals move with respect to resources, conspecifics and previous movement directions and have been used to understand the conditions for the occurrence and the spread of infectious diseases when hosts perform a type of movement. Here, we summarize the effect of the different types of movement on the threshold conditions for disease spread. We identify gaps in the literature and suggest several promising directions for future research. The mechanistic inclusion of movement in epidemic models may be beneficial for the following two reasons. Firstly, the estimation of the transmission coefficient in an epidemic model is possible because animal movement data can be used to estimate the rate of contacts between conspecifics. Secondly, unsuccessful transmission events, where a susceptible host contacts an infectious host but does not become infected can be quantified. Following an outbreak, this enables disease ecologists to identify 'near misses' and to explore possible alternative epidemic outcomes given shifts in ecological or immunological parameters.This article is part of the themed issue 'Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  9. Development and Characterization of Carob Flour Based Functional Spread for Increasing Use as Nutritious Snack for Children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sema Aydın

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Carob flour enriched functional spread was developed and textural, sensory, colour, and some nutritional properties of the product were investigated. Spread samples were prepared with major ingredients for optimisation and minor ingredients for improving texture and aroma. Major ingredients were carob flour and hydrogenated palm oil (HPO and minor ingredients were commercial skim milk powder, soya flour, lecithin, and hazelnut puree. The ratio of major ingredients was optimised using sensory scores and instrumental texture values to produce a carob spread that most closely resembles commercial chocolate spread (control, in both spreadability and overall acceptability. The amounts of minor ingredients (milk powder, 10%; soybean flour, 5%; lecithin, 1%; hazelnut puree, 4% were kept in constant ratio (20%. Addition of hydrogenated palm oil (HPO decreased the hardness and hardness work done (HWD values in contrast to carob flour. Higher rates of carob flour were linked to lower lightness, greenness, and yellowness values. Spread was optimised at 38 g carob flour/100 g spread and 42 g hydrogenated palm oil/100 g spread level and the formulation tended to receive the highest sensory scores compared to other spreads and presented closer instrumental spreadability values to control samples. This indicates a strong market potential for optimised carob spreads.

  10. Initial spread of "1"3"7Cs from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant over the Japan continental shelf. A study using a high-resolution, global-coastal nested ocean model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lai, Z.; Chen, C.; Lin, H.; Shanghai Ocean Univ.; Beardsley, R.; Ji, R.; Shanghai Ocean Univ.; Sasaki, J.; Lin, J.

    2013-01-01

    The 11 March 2011 tsunami triggered by the M9 and M7.9 earthquakes off the Tohoku coast destroyed facilities at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP) leading to a significant long-term flow of the radionuclide "1"3"7Cs into coastal waters. A high-resolution, global-coastal nested ocean model was first constructed to simulate the 11 March tsunami and coastal inundation. Based on the model's success in reproducing the observed tsunami and coastal inundation, model experiments were then conducted with differing grid resolution to assess the initial spread of "1"3"7Cs over the eastern shelf of Japan. The "1"3"7Cs was tracked as a conservative tracer (without radioactive decay) in the three-dimensional model flow field over the period of 26 March-31 August 2011. The results clearly show that for the same "1"3"7Cs discharge, the model-predicted spreading of "1"3"7Cs was sensitive not only to model resolution but also the FNPP seawall structure. A coarse-resolution (∝2 km) model simulation led to an overestimation of lateral diffusion and thus faster dispersion of "1"3"7Cs from the coast to the deep ocean, while advective processes played a more significant role when the model resolution at and around the FNPP was refined to ∝5 m. By resolving the pathways from the leaking source to the southern and northern discharge canals, the high-resolution model better predicted the "1"3"7Cs spreading in the inner shelf where in situ measurements were made at 30 km off the coast. The overestimation of "1"3"7Cs concentration near the coast is thought to be due to the omission of sedimentation and biogeochemical processes as well as uncertainties in the amount of "1"3"7Cs leaking from the source in the model. As a result, a biogeochemical module should be included in the model for more realistic simulations of the fate and spreading of "1"3"7Cs in the ocean.

  11. Empirical closures for particulate debris bed spreading induced by gas–liquid flow

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Basso, S., E-mail: simoneb@kth.se; Konovalenko, A.; Kudinov, P.

    2016-02-15

    Highlights: • Experimental study of the debris bed self-leveling phenomenon. • A scaling approach and a non-dimensional model to describe particle flow rate are proposed. • The model is validated against experiments with particles of different properties and at different gas injection conditions. - Abstract: Efficient removal of decay heat from the nuclear reactor core debris is paramount for termination of severe accident progression. One of the strategies is based on melt fragmentation, quenching and cooling in a deep pool of water under the reactor vessel. Geometrical configuration of the debris bed is among the important factors which determine possibility of removing the decay heat from the debris bed by natural circulation of the coolant. For instance, a tall mound-shape debris bed can be non-coolable, while the same debris can be coolable if spread uniformly. Decay heat generates a significant amount of thermal energy which goes to production of steam inside the debris bed. Two-phase flow escaping through the top layer of the bed becomes a source of mechanical energy which can move the particulate debris along the slope of the bed. The motion of the debris will lead to flattening of the bed. Such process is often called “self-leveling” phenomenon. Spreading of the debris bed by the self-leveling process can take significant time, depending on the initial debris bed configuration and other parameters. There is a competition between the time scales for reaching (i) a coolable configuration of the bed, and (ii) onset of dryout and re-melting of the debris. In the previous work we have demonstrated that the rate of particulate debris spreading is determined by local gas velocity and local slope angle of the bed. In this work we develop a scaling approach and a closure for prediction of debris spreading rate based on generalization of available experimental data. We demonstrate that introduced scaling criteria are universal for particles of different

  12. Development of Pistachio (Pistacia vera L.) spread.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shakerardekani, Ahmad; Karim, Roselina; Ghazali, Hasanah Mohd; Chin, Nyuk Ling

    2013-03-01

    Pistachio nut (Pistacia vera L.) is one of the most delicious and nutritious nuts in the world. Pistachio spreads were developed using pistachio paste as the main component, icing sugar, soy protein isolate (SPI), and red palm oil (RPO), at different ratios. The highest mean scores of all the sensory attributes were depicted by spreads that were made without addition of SPI. It was found that the work of shear was 0 to 11.0 kg s for an acceptable spread. Sensory spreadability, overall texture, spreadability, and overall acceptability were negatively correlated (R > 0.83) with the work of shear of spreads. The findings indicated that the presence of RPO had a direct effect on the viscoelastic behavior of the pistachio spreads. The a values, which are related to the green color of the pistachio product ranged from 1.7 to 3.9 for spread without addition of RPO, and 4.0 to 5.3 in the presence of RPO. The development of pistachio spread would potentially increase the food uses of pistachio and introduce consumers with a healthier snack food. © 2013 Institute of Food Technologists®

  13. Spatio-temporal dynamics of global H5N1 outbreaks match bird migration patterns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yali Si

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available The global spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 in poultry, wild birds and humans, poses a significant pandemic threat and a serious public health risk. An efficient surveillance and disease control system relies on the understanding of the dispersion patterns and spreading mechanisms of the virus. A space-time cluster analysis of H5N1 outbreaks was used to identify spatio-temporal patterns at a global scale and over an extended period of time. Potential mechanisms explaining the spread of the H5N1 virus, and the role of wild birds, were analyzed. Between December 2003 and December 2006, three global epidemic phases of H5N1 influenza were identified. These H5N1 outbreaks showed a clear seasonal pattern, with a high density of outbreaks in winter and early spring (i.e., October to March. In phase I and II only the East Asia Australian flyway was affected. During phase III, the H5N1 viruses started to appear in four other flyways: the Central Asian flyway, the Black Sea Mediterranean flyway, the East Atlantic flyway and the East Africa West Asian flyway. Six disease cluster patterns along these flyways were found to be associated with the seasonal migration of wild birds. The spread of the H5N1 virus, as demonstrated by the space-time clusters, was associated with the patterns of migration of wild birds. Wild birds may therefore play an important role in the spread of H5N1 over long distances. Disease clusters were also detected at sites where wild birds are known to overwinter and at times when migratory birds were present. This leads to the suggestion that wild birds may also be involved in spreading the H5N1 virus over short distances.

  14. Impact of the Internet on Globalization : Industrial Internet

    OpenAIRE

    Jukics, Márk

    2016-01-01

    The thesis consists of two main parts. The first part is the theoretical framework, the second part is about assisting in a project of Centria University of Applied Sciences. The theoretical part of the thesis expounds the evolution and the benefits of the industrial internet. It explains the roots of globalization, internet, and industries. Lean manufacturing and management is also involved in the theory, as this way of management is successfully spreading by the help of globalization. I...

  15. Essays on globalization, monetary policy and financial crisis'

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Qian, Z.

    2012-01-01

    This thesis focuses on three interlinked topics. Chapter 2 studies the determinants of sovereign CDS spreads in Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain during the recent global financial crisis and European debt crisis. Chapter 3 introduces a model on the interactions between monetary policy

  16. Emergence and spreading potential of Zika virus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alvaro Fajardo

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Zika virus (ZIKV is an arthropod-borne Flavivirus (family Flaviviridae closely related to dengue, yellow fever and West Nile viruses. ZIKV remained neglected, confined to enzootic transmission cycles in Africa and Asia, until the first significant outbreak was reported in Micronesia in 2007. Subsequent epidemics of growing incidence occurred in French Polynesia and other South Pacific Islands, and recently, in the Americas. The latter and currently ongoing outbreak of unprecedented incidence revealed the association of ZIKV infection with the occurrence of severe congenital malformations and neurological diseases, leading to a widespread concern about its potential to pose a global public health threat. Serological and molecular data suggest that the genetic and geographic diversification of ZIKV may be greatly underestimated. Here we discuss several ecological and epidemiological aspects, together with the evolutionary processes that may have driven the emergence and abrupt spread of ZIKV in the Americas.

  17. Effects of green tea extract and α-tocopherol on the lipid oxidation rate of omega-3 oils, incorporated into table spreads, prepared using multiple emulsion technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dwyer, Sandra P O'; O'Beirne, David; Ní Eidhin, Deirdre; O'Kennedy, Brendan T

    2012-12-01

    This study examined the effectiveness of fat and water soluble antioxidants on the oxidative stability of omega (ω)-3 rich table spreads, produced using novel multiple emulsion technology. Table spreads were produced by dispersing an oil-in-water (O/W) emulsion (500 g/kg 85 camelina/15 fish oil blend) in a hardstock/rapeseed oil blend, using sodium caseinate and polyglycerol polyricinoleate as emulsifiers. The O/W and oil-in-water-in-oil (O/W/O) emulsions contained either a water soluble antioxidant (green tea extract [GTE]), an oil soluble antioxidant (α-Tocopherol), or both. Spreads containing α-Tocopherol had the highest lipid hydroperoxide values, whereas spreads containing GTE had the lowest (P < 0.05), during storage at 5°C, while p-Anisidine values did not differ significantly. Particle size was generally unaffected by antioxidant type (P < 0.05). Double emulsion (O/W/O) structures were clearly seen in confocal images of the spreads. By the end of storage, none of the spreads had significantly different G' values. Firmness (Newtons) of all spreads generally increased during storage (P < 0.05). © 2012 Institute of Food Technologists®

  18. Experiments on non-isothermal spreading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ehrhard, P.

    1992-09-01

    Experiments are performed on axisymmetric spreading of viscous drops on glass plates. Two liquids are investigated: silicone oil (M-100) spreads to 'infinity' and paraffin oil spreads to a finite-radius steady state. The experiments with silicone oil partly recover the behaviour of previous workers data; those experiments with paraffin oil provide new data. It is found that gravitational forces dominate at long enough times while at shorter times capillary forces dominate. When the plate is heated or cooled with respect to the ambient gas, thermocapillary forces generate flows that alter the spreading dynamics. Heating (cooling) the plate is found to retard (augment) the streading. Moreover, in case of partial wetting, the finally-approached drop radius is smaller (larger) for a heated (cooled) plate. These data are all new. All these observations are in excellent quantitative agreement with the related model predictions of Ehrhard and Davis (1991). A breakdown of the axisymmetric character of the flow is observed only for very long times and/or very thin liquid layers. (orig.) [de

  19. Suppressing epidemic spreading by risk-averse migration in dynamical networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Han-Xin; Tang, Ming; Wang, Zhen

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, we study the interplay between individual behaviors and epidemic spreading in a dynamical network. We distribute agents on a square-shaped region with periodic boundary conditions. Every agent is regarded as a node of the network and a wireless link is established between two agents if their geographical distance is less than a certain radius. At each time, every agent assesses the epidemic situation and make decisions on whether it should stay in or leave its current place. An agent will leave its current place with a speed if the number of infected neighbors reaches or exceeds a critical value E. Owing to the movement of agents, the network's structure is dynamical. Interestingly, we find that there exists an optimal value of E leading to the maximum epidemic threshold. This means that epidemic spreading can be effectively controlled by risk-averse migration. Besides, we find that the epidemic threshold increases as the recovering rate increases, decreases as the contact radius increases, and is maximized by an optimal moving speed. Our findings offer a deeper understanding of epidemic spreading in dynamical networks.

  20. A study on the spreading ability of radiation-sterilized male moth of bombyx mandarin in field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang Rongxin; Xia Darong; Gu Weiping; Zhang Yanjun

    1998-01-01

    The mulberry wild silkworm (MWS), belong to the Bombycidae of Lepidoptera, is serious pest of sericulture. The female moth of MWS is sterile and the male moth is sub-sterile when they were treated with 250 Gy 60 Co γ-ray (dose rate: 1.05 Gy/min), and their filial generations was sterile. The spreading ability of male moth of MWS in field and retrieving the marked MWS male moth with the trapping method was studied. The trapping solution was composed of sugar, vinegar, wine and alive female moth. The retrieving rate of MWS male moth amounted to 12.6%∼13.5% of released moth in field. The spreading range in 24 hours for sterile MWS male moth reached to 700 m, and 90.8% of MWS male moth was in an area of 5 m radius from the releasing centre. It is concluded that thirty releasing centres per hectare are needed to make the irradiated sterilized insects spread for controlling the MWS in field

  1. Towards Data-Driven Simulations of Wildfire Spread using Ensemble-based Data Assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rochoux, M. C.; Bart, J.; Ricci, S. M.; Cuenot, B.; Trouvé, A.; Duchaine, F.; Morel, T.

    2012-12-01

    Real-time predictions of a propagating wildfire remain a challenging task because the problem involves both multi-physics and multi-scales. The propagation speed of wildfires, also called the rate of spread (ROS), is indeed determined by complex interactions between pyrolysis, combustion and flow dynamics, atmospheric dynamics occurring at vegetation, topographical and meteorological scales. Current operational fire spread models are mainly based on a semi-empirical parameterization of the ROS in terms of vegetation, topographical and meteorological properties. For the fire spread simulation to be predictive and compatible with operational applications, the uncertainty on the ROS model should be reduced. As recent progress made in remote sensing technology provides new ways to monitor the fire front position, a promising approach to overcome the difficulties found in wildfire spread simulations is to integrate fire modeling and fire sensing technologies using data assimilation (DA). For this purpose we have developed a prototype data-driven wildfire spread simulator in order to provide optimal estimates of poorly known model parameters [*]. The data-driven simulation capability is adapted for more realistic wildfire spread : it considers a regional-scale fire spread model that is informed by observations of the fire front location. An Ensemble Kalman Filter algorithm (EnKF) based on a parallel computing platform (OpenPALM) was implemented in order to perform a multi-parameter sequential estimation where wind magnitude and direction are in addition to vegetation properties (see attached figure). The EnKF algorithm shows its good ability to track a small-scale grassland fire experiment and ensures a good accounting for the sensitivity of the simulation outcomes to the control parameters. As a conclusion, it was shown that data assimilation is a promising approach to more accurately forecast time-varying wildfire spread conditions as new airborne-like observations of

  2. Energy Spread Sources in TESLA and TTF

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mosnier, A.; Tessier, J.M.

    1995-03-01

    The beam energy spread in the TESLA linac must be small enough to limit the emittance dilution due to the dispersive effects. This report summarizes the major sources of energy spread both for the TESLA linac and the TTF linac, where these estimations will be carefully checked with beam experiments. The first part recalls the intra-bunch energy spread while the second part looks into the bunch-to-bunch energy spread induced by rf field fluctuations within the bunch train and from pulse-to-pulse. (author). 3 refs., 4 figs

  3. Economic growth, urbanization, globalization, and the risks of emerging infectious diseases in China: A review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Tong; Perrings, Charles; Kinzig, Ann; Collins, James P; Minteer, Ben A; Daszak, Peter

    2017-02-01

    Three interrelated world trends may be exacerbating emerging zoonotic risks: income growth, urbanization, and globalization. Income growth is associated with rising animal protein consumption in developing countries, which increases the conversion of wild lands to livestock production, and hence the probability of zoonotic emergence. Urbanization implies the greater concentration and connectedness of people, which increases the speed at which new infections are spread. Globalization-the closer integration of the world economy-has facilitated pathogen spread among countries through the growth of trade and travel. High-risk areas for the emergence and spread of infectious disease are where these three trends intersect with predisposing socioecological conditions including the presence of wild disease reservoirs, agricultural practices that increase contact between wildlife and livestock, and cultural practices that increase contact between humans, wildlife, and livestock. Such an intersection occurs in China, which has been a "cradle" of zoonoses from the Black Death to avian influenza and SARS. Disease management in China is thus critical to the mitigation of global zoonotic risks.

  4. Coding-Spreading Tradeoff in CDMA Systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bolas, Eduardo

    2002-01-01

    .... Comparing different combinations of coding and spreading with a traditional DS-CDMA, as defined in the IS-95 standard, allows the criteria to be defined for the best coding-spreading tradeoff in CDMA systems...

  5. Deterministic ripple-spreading model for complex networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Xiao-Bing; Wang, Ming; Leeson, Mark S; Hines, Evor L; Di Paolo, Ezequiel

    2011-04-01

    This paper proposes a deterministic complex network model, which is inspired by the natural ripple-spreading phenomenon. The motivations and main advantages of the model are the following: (i) The establishment of many real-world networks is a dynamic process, where it is often observed that the influence of a few local events spreads out through nodes, and then largely determines the final network topology. Obviously, this dynamic process involves many spatial and temporal factors. By simulating the natural ripple-spreading process, this paper reports a very natural way to set up a spatial and temporal model for such complex networks. (ii) Existing relevant network models are all stochastic models, i.e., with a given input, they cannot output a unique topology. Differently, the proposed ripple-spreading model can uniquely determine the final network topology, and at the same time, the stochastic feature of complex networks is captured by randomly initializing ripple-spreading related parameters. (iii) The proposed model can use an easily manageable number of ripple-spreading related parameters to precisely describe a network topology, which is more memory efficient when compared with traditional adjacency matrix or similar memory-expensive data structures. (iv) The ripple-spreading model has a very good potential for both extensions and applications.

  6. Rapid Spread of Zika Virus in The Americas--Implications for Public Health Preparedness for Mass Gatherings at the 2016 Brazil Olympic Games.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersen, Eskild; Wilson, Mary E; Touch, Sok; McCloskey, Brian; Mwaba, Peter; Bates, Matthew; Dar, Osman; Mattes, Frank; Kidd, Mike; Ippolito, Giuseppe; Azhar, Esam I; Zumla, Alimuddin

    2016-03-01

    Mass gatherings at major international sporting events put millions of international travelers and local host-country residents at risk of acquiring infectious diseases, including locally endemic infectious diseases. The mosquito-borne Zika virus (ZIKV) has recently aroused global attention due to its rapid spread since its first detection in May 2015 in Brazil to 22 other countries and other territories in the Americas. The ZIKV outbreak in Brazil, has also been associated with a significant rise in the number of babies born with microcephaly and neurological disorders, and has been declared a 'Global Emergency by the World Health Organization. This explosive spread of ZIKV in Brazil poses challenges for public health preparedness and surveillance for the Olympics and Paralympics which are due to be held in Rio De Janeiro in August, 2016. We review the epidemiology and clinical features of the current ZIKV outbreak in Brazil, highlight knowledge gaps, and review the public health implications of the current ZIKV outbreak in the Americas. We highlight the urgent need for a coordinated collaborative response for prevention and spread of infectious diseases with epidemic potential at mass gatherings events. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  7. Dynamics of Ionic Shifts in Cortical Spreading Depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enger, Rune; Tang, Wannan; Vindedal, Gry Fluge; Jensen, Vidar; Johannes Helm, P; Sprengel, Rolf; Looger, Loren L; Nagelhus, Erlend A

    2015-11-01

    Cortical spreading depression is a slowly propagating wave of near-complete depolarization of brain cells followed by temporary suppression of neuronal activity. Accumulating evidence indicates that cortical spreading depression underlies the migraine aura and that similar waves promote tissue damage in stroke, trauma, and hemorrhage. Cortical spreading depression is characterized by neuronal swelling, profound elevation of extracellular potassium and glutamate, multiphasic blood flow changes, and drop in tissue oxygen tension. The slow speed of the cortical spreading depression wave implies that it is mediated by diffusion of a chemical substance, yet the identity of this substance and the pathway it follows are unknown. Intercellular spread between gap junction-coupled neurons or glial cells and interstitial diffusion of K(+) or glutamate have been proposed. Here we use extracellular direct current potential recordings, K(+)-sensitive microelectrodes, and 2-photon imaging with ultrasensitive Ca(2+) and glutamate fluorescent probes to elucidate the spatiotemporal dynamics of ionic shifts associated with the propagation of cortical spreading depression in the visual cortex of adult living mice. Our data argue against intercellular spread of Ca(2+) carrying the cortical spreading depression wavefront and are in favor of interstitial K(+) diffusion, rather than glutamate diffusion, as the leading event in cortical spreading depression. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press.

  8. Natural gas fugitive emissions rates constrained by global atmospheric methane and ethane.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwietzke, Stefan; Griffin, W Michael; Matthews, H Scott; Bruhwiler, Lori M P

    2014-07-15

    The amount of methane emissions released by the natural gas (NG) industry is a critical and uncertain value for various industry and policy decisions, such as for determining the climate implications of using NG over coal. Previous studies have estimated fugitive emissions rates (FER)--the fraction of produced NG (mainly methane and ethane) escaped to the atmosphere--between 1 and 9%. Most of these studies rely on few and outdated measurements, and some may represent only temporal/regional NG industry snapshots. This study estimates NG industry representative FER using global atmospheric methane and ethane measurements over three decades, and literature ranges of (i) tracer gas atmospheric lifetimes, (ii) non-NG source estimates, and (iii) fossil fuel fugitive gas hydrocarbon compositions. The modeling suggests an upper bound global average FER of 5% during 2006-2011, and a most likely FER of 2-4% since 2000, trending downward. These results do not account for highly uncertain natural hydrocarbon seepage, which could lower the FER. Further emissions reductions by the NG industry may be needed to ensure climate benefits over coal during the next few decades.

  9. Rate of Speed

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — Rate of spread was modeled using FlamMap, an interagency fire behavior mapping and analysis program that computes potential fire behavior characteristics. The tool...

  10. Combined Versus Detailed Evaluation Components in Medical Student Global Rating Indexes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kim L. Askew

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: To determine if there is any correlation between any of the 10 individual components of a global rating index on an emergency medicine (EM student clerkship evaluation form. If there is correlation, to determine if a weighted average of highly correlated components loses predictive value for the final clerkship grade. Methods: This study reviewed medical student evaluations collected over two years of a required fourth-year rotation in EM. Evaluation cards, comprised of a detailed 10-part evaluation, were completed after each shift. We used a correlation matrix between evaluation category average scores, using Spearman’s rho, to determine if there was any correlation of the grades between any of the 10 items on the evaluation form. Results: A total of 233 students completed the rotation over the two-year period of the study. There were strong correlations (>0.80 between assessment components of medical knowledge, history taking, physical exam, and differential diagnosis. There were also strong correlations between assessment components of team rapport, patient rapport, and motivation. When these highly correlated were combined to produce a four-component model, linear regression demonstrated similar predictive power in terms of final clerkship grade (R2 =0.71, CI95=0.65–0.77 and R2 =0.69, CI95=0.63–0.76 for the full and reduced models respectively. Conclusion: This study revealed that several components of the evaluation card had a high degree of correlation. Combining the correlated items, a reduced model containing four items (clinical skills, interpersonal skills, procedural skills, and documentation was as predictive of the student’s clinical grade as the full 10-item evaluation. Clerkship directors should be aware of the performance of their individual global rating scales when assessing medical student performance, especially if attempting to measure greater than four components.

  11. Warning signals for eruptive events in spreading fires.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Jerome M; Whitesides, George M

    2015-02-24

    Spreading fires are noisy (and potentially chaotic) systems in which transitions in dynamics are notoriously difficult to predict. As flames move through spatially heterogeneous environments, sudden shifts in temperature, wind, or topography can generate combustion instabilities, or trigger self-stabilizing feedback loops, that dramatically amplify the intensities and rates with which fires propagate. Such transitions are rarely captured by predictive models of fire behavior and, thus, complicate efforts in fire suppression. This paper describes a simple, remarkably instructive physical model for examining the eruption of small flames into intense, rapidly moving flames stabilized by feedback between wind and fire (i.e., "wind-fire coupling"-a mechanism of feedback particularly relevant to forest fires), and it presents evidence that characteristic patterns in the dynamics of spreading flames indicate when such transitions are likely to occur. In this model system, flames propagate along strips of nitrocellulose with one of two possible modes of propagation: a slow, structured mode, and a fast, unstructured mode sustained by wind-fire coupling. Experimental examination of patterns in dynamics that emerge near bifurcation points suggests that symptoms of critical slowing down (i.e., the slowed recovery of the system from perturbations as it approaches tipping points) warn of impending transitions to the unstructured mode. Findings suggest that slowing responses of spreading flames to sudden changes in environment (e.g., wind, terrain, temperature) may anticipate the onset of intense, feedback-stabilized modes of propagation (e.g., "blowup fires" in forests).

  12. Spread and Liquidity Issues: A markets comparison

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Strašek Sebastjan

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The financial crises are closely connected with spread changes and liquidity issues. After defining and addressing spread considerations, we research in this paper the topic of liquidity issues in times of economic crisis. We analyse the liquidity effects as recorded on spreads of securities from different markets. We stipulate that higher international risk aversion in times of financial crises coincides with widening security spreads. The paper then introduces liquidity as a risk factor into the standard value-at-risk framework, using GARCH methodology. The comparison of results of these models suggests that the size of the tested markets does not have a strong effect on the models. Thus, we find that spread analysis is an appropriate tool for analysing liquidity issues during a financial crisis.

  13. Focus: global currents in national histories of science: the "global turn" and the history of science in Latin America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCook, Stuart

    2013-12-01

    The "global turn" in the history of science offers new ways to think about how to do national and regional histories of science, in this case the history of science in Latin America. For example, it questions structuralist and diffusionist models of the spread of science and shows the often active role that people in Latin America (and the rest of the Global South) played in the construction of "universal" scientific knowledge. It suggests that even national or regional histories of science must be situated in a global context; all too often, such histories have treated global processes as a distant backdrop. At the same time, historians need to pay constant attention to the role of power in the construction of scientific knowledge. Finally, this essay highlights a methodological tool for writing globally inflected histories of science: the method of "following".

  14. Criteria for the spreading of oxide melts: Test series miniKATS-1 to -5

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eppinger, B.; Fieg, G.; Massier, H.; Schuetz, W.; Stegmaier, U.; Stern, G.

    2001-09-01

    In a long series of larger spreading tests with high temperature oxide melts (KATS tests) many parameters have been varied which are influencing the spreading behaviour (viscosity, pouring rate, substratum of spreading surface, presence of water). In spite of an extensive instrumentation using different thermocouples, an infrared camera and several video cameras, only in very few cases the behaviour of the melt front at the very moment of immobilization could be detected in detail. Therefore in the additional miniKATS series five small scale (5 kg) spreading tests with oxide melts have been conducted to investigate the mechanical properties of the spreading front in the moment of immobilization. It turned out that in all cases the bulk of the melt at this moment was still liquid at a temperature close to the initial one. Depending on the initial melt properties two distinct phenomena have been observed which control the immobilization of the melt: the first phenomena is the crust formation at the surface, the crusts at the bottom combined with the crust at the surface of the melt. In the other case the whole melt front was still above the liquid temperature at the moment of immobilization. Here the surface tension was controlling the spreading, it was in balance with the driving gravitational force. In none of the test bulk freezing has been detected. (orig.)

  15. Global science: the eruption of Krakatau.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dörries, Matthias

    2003-01-01

    The eruption of the volcano Krakatau in the Netherlands East Indies (Indonesia) in 1883 had worldwide impact. This was perceived in the three quite different types of global propagation that occurred after the eruption: a rapid pressure wave, noticeable only to measuring instruments, followed a few hours later by the spread of the news of the event, succeeded by a slowly expanding optical phenomenon that lasted for a couple of years. Krakatau was the first natural catastrophe of global magnitude that was almost immediately recognized as such throughout the world, largely thanks to the recently installed worldwide telegraphic network.

  16. Asymmetric gravitational spreading - Analogue experiments on the Svecofennian orogen

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikkilä, Kaisa; Korja, Annakaisa; Koyi, Hemin; Eklund, Olav

    2015-04-01

    Over-thickened orogenic crust may suffer from rheological, gravitational and topographical unbalancing resulting in discharging via gravitational spreading. If the thickened orogen is also hot, then increased temperature may reduce the viscosity of the crust that may induce large-scale horizontal flow. The effect of flow on the crustal architecture has previously been modeled with symmetric two-way spreading or asymmetric one- or two-way spreading (like channel flow) experiments. Most models do not take into account of the contrasting mechanical properties of the juxtaposed terranes. We have made analogue experiments to study gravitational one-way spreading and the interplay between two crustal blocks with contrasting rheological properties. The models are 3 cm thick replicas of 60 km thick crust. They have three horizontal layers representing strong lower, weak middle and brittle upper crust. The models have cuts to study the effect of inherited crustal-scale weakness zones. The experiments have been conducted within a large centrifuge in the Hans Ramberg Tectonic Laboratory at Uppsala University. The analogue models propose that asymmetric, unilateral flow has different effect on the contrasting crustal units, in both horizontal and vertical directions. The laterally heterogeneous crust flows towards the direction of extension, and it rotates and extends the pre-existing weakness zones. The weakness zones facilitate exhumation and they increase strain rate. The weakness zones split the crust into subblocks, which stretch individually and which may show signatures of compression or rotation. The changes in thickness of the model reflect changes in the layers, which may thin or thicken depending on the mechanical properties of crustal layers. A consequence of this the total amount of flattening is less than the model extension. The results are compared to geophysical and geological data from Precambrian Svecofennian orogen in Fennoscandia. The comparison suggest

  17. Bias and spread in extreme value theory measurements of probability of error

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, J. G.

    1972-01-01

    Extreme value theory is examined to explain the cause of the bias and spread in performance of communications systems characterized by low bit rates and high data reliability requirements, for cases in which underlying noise is Gaussian or perturbed Gaussian. Experimental verification is presented and procedures that minimize these effects are suggested. Even under these conditions, however, extreme value theory test results are not particularly more significant than bit error rate tests.

  18. Design, Implementation, and Evaluation of a Hybrid DS/FFH Spread-Spectrum Radio Transceiver

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olama, Mohammed M [ORNL; Killough, Stephen M [ORNL; Kuruganti, Teja [ORNL; Carroll, Thomas E. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

    2014-01-01

    In recent years there has been great interest in using hybrid spread-spectrum (HSS) techniques for commercial applications, particularly in the Smart Grid, in addition to their inherent uses in military communications. This is because HSS can accommodate high data rates with high link integrity, even in the presence of significant multipath effects and interfering signals. A highly useful form of this transmission technique for many types of command, control, and sensing applications is the specific code-related combination of standard direct-sequence modulation with "fast" frequency-hopping, denoted hybrid DS/FFH, wherein multiple frequency hops occur within a single data-bit time. In this paper, we present the efforts carried out at Oak Ridge National Laboratory toward exploring the design, implementation, and evaluation of a hybrid DS/FFH spread-spectrum radio transceiver using a single Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA). The FPGA allows the various subsystems to quickly communicate with each other and thereby maintain tight synchronization. We also investigate various hopping sequences against robustness to interference and jamming. Experimental results are presented that show the receiver sensitivity, radio data-rate/bit-error evaluations, and jamming and interference rejection capabilities of the implemented hybrid DS/FFH spread-spectrum system under widely varying design parameters.

  19. Evaluating the links between climate, disease spread, and amphibian declines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohr, Jason R; Raffel, Thomas R; Romansic, John M; McCallum, Hamish; Hudson, Peter J

    2008-11-11

    Human alteration of the environment has arguably propelled the Earth into its sixth mass extinction event and amphibians, the most threatened of all vertebrate taxa, are at the forefront. Many of the worldwide amphibian declines have been caused by the chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), and two contrasting hypotheses have been proposed to explain these declines. Positive correlations between global warming and Bd-related declines sparked the chytrid-thermal-optimum hypothesis, which proposes that global warming increased cloud cover in warm years that drove the convergence of daytime and nighttime temperatures toward the thermal optimum for Bd growth. In contrast, the spatiotemporal-spread hypothesis states that Bd-related declines are caused by the introduction and spread of Bd, independent of climate change. We provide a rigorous test of these hypotheses by evaluating (i) whether cloud cover, temperature convergence, and predicted temperature-dependent Bd growth are significant positive predictors of amphibian extinctions in the genus Atelopus and (ii) whether spatial structure in the timing of these extinctions can be detected without making assumptions about the location, timing, or number of Bd emergences. We show that there is spatial structure to the timing of Atelopus spp. extinctions but that the cause of this structure remains equivocal, emphasizing the need for further molecular characterization of Bd. We also show that the reported positive multi-decade correlation between Atelopus spp. extinctions and mean tropical air temperature in the previous year is indeed robust, but the evidence that it is causal is weak because numerous other variables, including regional banana and beer production, were better predictors of these extinctions. Finally, almost all of our findings were opposite to the predictions of the chytrid-thermal-optimum hypothesis. Although climate change is likely to play an important role in worldwide amphibian declines

  20. Topology dependent epidemic spreading velocity in weighted networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duan, Wei; Qiu, Xiaogang; Quax, Rick; Lees, Michael; Sloot, Peter M A

    2014-01-01

    Many diffusive processes occur on structured networks with weighted links, such as disease spread by airplane transport or information diffusion in social networks or blogs. Understanding the impact of weight-connectivity correlations on epidemic spreading in weighted networks is crucial to support decision-making on disease control and other diffusive processes. However, a real understanding of epidemic spreading velocity in weighted networks is still lacking. Here we conduct a numerical study of the velocity of a Reed–Frost epidemic spreading process in various weighted network topologies as a function of the correlations between edge weights and node degrees. We find that a positive weight-connectivity correlation leads to a faster epidemic spreading compared to an unweighted network. In contrast, we find that both uncorrelated and negatively correlated weight distributions lead to slower spreading processes. In the case of positive weight-connectivity correlations, the acceleration of spreading velocity is weak when the heterogeneity of weight distribution increases. (paper)

  1. Explaining the luminosity spread in young clusters: proto and pre-main sequence stellar evolution in a molecular cloud environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, Sigurd S.; Haugbølle, Troels

    2018-02-01

    Hertzsprung-Russell diagrams of star-forming regions show a large luminosity spread. This is incompatible with well-defined isochrones based on classic non-accreting protostellar evolution models. Protostars do not evolve in isolation of their environment, but grow through accretion of gas. In addition, while an age can be defined for a star-forming region, the ages of individual stars in the region will vary. We show how the combined effect of a protostellar age spread, a consequence of sustained star formation in the molecular cloud, and time-varying protostellar accretion for individual protostars can explain the observed luminosity spread. We use a global magnetohydrodynamic simulation including a sub-scale sink particle model of a star-forming region to follow the accretion process of each star. The accretion profiles are used to compute stellar evolution models for each star, incorporating a model of how the accretion energy is distributed to the disc, radiated away at the accretion shock, or incorporated into the outer layers of the protostar. Using a modelled cluster age of 5 Myr, we naturally reproduce the luminosity spread and find good agreement with observations of the Collinder 69 cluster, and the Orion Nebular Cluster. It is shown how stars in binary and multiple systems can be externally forced creating recurrent episodic accretion events. We find that in a realistic global molecular cloud model massive stars build up mass over relatively long time-scales. This leads to an important conceptual change compared to the classic picture of non-accreting stellar evolution segmented into low-mass Hayashi tracks and high-mass Henyey tracks.

  2. A network model for Ebola spreading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rizzo, Alessandro; Pedalino, Biagio; Porfiri, Maurizio

    2016-04-07

    The availability of accurate models for the spreading of infectious diseases has opened a new era in management and containment of epidemics. Models are extensively used to plan for and execute vaccination campaigns, to evaluate the risk of international spreadings and the feasibility of travel bans, and to inform prophylaxis campaigns. Even when no specific therapeutical protocol is available, as for the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD), models of epidemic spreading can provide useful insight to steer interventions in the field and to forecast the trend of the epidemic. Here, we propose a novel mathematical model to describe EVD spreading based on activity driven networks (ADNs). Our approach overcomes the simplifying assumption of homogeneous mixing, which is central to most of the mathematically tractable models of EVD spreading. In our ADN-based model, each individual is not bound to contact every other, and its network of contacts varies in time as a function of an activity potential. Our model contemplates the possibility of non-ideal and time-varying intervention policies, which are critical to accurately describe EVD spreading in afflicted countries. The model is calibrated from field data of the 2014 April-to-December spreading in Liberia. We use the model as a predictive tool, to emulate the dynamics of EVD in Liberia and offer a one-year projection, until December 2015. Our predictions agree with the current vision expressed by professionals in the field, who consider EVD in Liberia at its final stage. The model is also used to perform a what-if analysis to assess the efficacy of timely intervention policies. In particular, we show that an earlier application of the same intervention policy would have greatly reduced the number of EVD cases, the duration of the outbreak, and the infrastructures needed for the implementation of the intervention. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Post-Tanner spreading of nematic droplets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mechkov, S; Oshanin, G; Cazabat, A M

    2009-01-01

    The quasistationary spreading of a circular liquid drop on a solid substrate typically obeys the so-called Tanner law, with the instantaneous base radius R(t) growing with time as R∼t 1/10 -an effect of the dominant role of capillary forces for a small-sized droplet. However, for droplets of nematic liquid crystals, a faster spreading law sets in at long times, so that R∼t α with α significantly larger than the Tanner exponent 1/10. In the framework of the thin film model (or lubrication approximation), we describe this 'acceleration' as a transition to a qualitatively different spreading regime driven by a strong substrate-liquid interaction specific to nematics (antagonistic anchoring at the interfaces). The numerical solution of the thin film equation agrees well with the available experimental data for nematics, even though the non-Newtonian rheology has yet to be taken into account. Thus we complement the theory of spreading with a post-Tanner stage, noting that the spreading process can be expected to cross over from the usual capillarity-dominated stage to a regime where the whole reservoir becomes a diffusive film in the sense of Derjaguin.

  4. Ideas and institutions in global governance - the case of microcredit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aagaard, Peter

    There is a growing demand for effective strategic problem solving in relation to a wide array of global policy problems such as AIDS, poverty, global warming, etc. This makes the introduction of new policy ideas for institutional change increasingly important in global governance. But researchers...... need a new approach in order to better grasp the complexity in global problem solving. We need to know more about how ideas emerge, spread and transform in a complex, networked global environment. New literature on institutional dynamics can inform the literature on global governance networks......, especially when it comes to the meta-governance of global networks. Based on a case study of microcredit and its emergence as a policy idea in development policy, the paper will illustrate the use of institutional dynamic conceptualisation in global governance....

  5. A Role for Human Skin Mast Cells in Dengue Virus Infection and Systemic Spread.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Troupin, Andrea; Shirley, Devon; Londono-Renteria, Berlin; Watson, Alan M; McHale, Cody; Hall, Alex; Hartstone-Rose, Adam; Klimstra, William B; Gomez, Gregorio; Colpitts, Tonya M

    2016-12-01

    Dengue virus (DENV) is a mosquito-borne flavivirus that causes serious global human disease and mortality. Skin immune cells are an important component of initial DENV infection and systemic spread. Here, we show that mast cells are a target of DENV in human skin and that DENV infection of skin mast cells induces degranulation and alters cytokine and growth factor expression profiles. Importantly, to our knowledge, we also demonstrate for the first time that DENV localizes within secretory granules in infected skin mast cells. In addition, DENV within extracellular granules was infectious in vitro and in vivo, trafficking through lymph to draining lymph nodes in mice. We demonstrate an important role for human skin mast cells in DENV infection and identify a novel mechanism for systemic spread of DENV infection from the initial peripheral mosquito injection site. Copyright © 2016 by The American Association of Immunologists, Inc.

  6. Introduced pathogens follow the invasion front of a spreading alien host

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ann E. Hajek; Patrick C. Tobin

    2011-01-01

    When an invasive species first colonizes an area, there is an interval before any host-specific natural enemies arrive at the new location. Population densities of newly invading species are low, and the spatial and temporal interactions between spreading invasive species and specific natural enemies that follow are poorly understood. We measured infection rates of two...

  7. Spreading dynamics in complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pei, Sen; Makse, Hernán A

    2013-01-01

    Searching for influential spreaders in complex networks is an issue of great significance for applications across various domains, ranging from epidemic control, innovation diffusion, viral marketing, and social movement to idea propagation. In this paper, we first display some of the most important theoretical models that describe spreading processes, and then discuss the problem of locating both the individual and multiple influential spreaders respectively. Recent approaches in these two topics are presented. For the identification of privileged single spreaders, we summarize several widely used centralities, such as degree, betweenness centrality, PageRank, k-shell, etc. We investigate the empirical diffusion data in a large scale online social community—LiveJournal. With this extensive dataset, we find that various measures can convey very distinct information of nodes. Of all the users in the LiveJournal social network, only a small fraction of them are involved in spreading. For the spreading processes in LiveJournal, while degree can locate nodes participating in information diffusion with higher probability, k-shell is more effective in finding nodes with a large influence. Our results should provide useful information for designing efficient spreading strategies in reality. (paper)

  8. Spreading dynamics in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pei, Sen; Makse, Hernán A.

    2013-12-01

    Searching for influential spreaders in complex networks is an issue of great significance for applications across various domains, ranging from epidemic control, innovation diffusion, viral marketing, and social movement to idea propagation. In this paper, we first display some of the most important theoretical models that describe spreading processes, and then discuss the problem of locating both the individual and multiple influential spreaders respectively. Recent approaches in these two topics are presented. For the identification of privileged single spreaders, we summarize several widely used centralities, such as degree, betweenness centrality, PageRank, k-shell, etc. We investigate the empirical diffusion data in a large scale online social community—LiveJournal. With this extensive dataset, we find that various measures can convey very distinct information of nodes. Of all the users in the LiveJournal social network, only a small fraction of them are involved in spreading. For the spreading processes in LiveJournal, while degree can locate nodes participating in information diffusion with higher probability, k-shell is more effective in finding nodes with a large influence. Our results should provide useful information for designing efficient spreading strategies in reality.

  9. Governance by Diffusion: Transnational Municipal Networks and the Spread of Local Climate Strategies in Europe

    OpenAIRE

    Lukas Hakelberg

    2014-01-01

    Cities have become crucial actors for the global governance of climate change. Their increased activity in this field is reflected by the rising number of adoptions of local climate strategies in an original sample of 274 European cities from 1992 to 2009. Using event history analysis, I find that this spread is promoted by transnational municipal networks (TMNs) successfully deploying strategies for governance by diffusion, their impact exceeding that of most alternative explanatory factors ...

  10. The Influence of Globalization on Turkish Sports

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahin, Mehmet

    2018-01-01

    This paper addresses the phenomenon of globalization, which has also spread to sports, in terms of its economic, social and cultural aspects; while discussing the concept based on examples from the discipline of football in the premier league of Turkey. In this framework, sports labor emigration mobility is handled, and sponsorship and the effects…

  11. The Effects of Time Lag and Cure Rate on the Global Dynamics of HIV-1 Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nigar Ali

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this research article, a new mathematical model of delayed differential equations is developed which discusses the interaction among CD4 T cells, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV, and recombinant virus with cure rate. The model has two distributed intracellular delays. These delays denote the time needed for the infection of a cell. The dynamics of the model are completely described by the basic reproduction numbers represented by R0, R1, and R2. It is shown that if R0<1, then the infection-free equilibrium is locally as well as globally stable. Similarly, it is proved that the recombinant absent equilibrium is locally as well as globally asymptotically stable if 1rate have a positive role in the reduction of infected cells and the increasing of uninfected cells due to which the infection is reduced.

  12. Scale-free correlations in the geographical spreading of obesity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallos, Lazaros; Barttfeld, Pablo; Havlin, Shlomo; Sigman, Mariano; Makse, Hernan

    2012-02-01

    Obesity levels have been universally increasing. A crucial problem is to determine the influence of global and local drivers behind the obesity epidemic, to properly guide effective policies. Despite the numerous factors that affect the obesity evolution, we show a remarkable regularity expressed in a predictable pattern of spatial long-range correlations in the geographical spreading of obesity. We study the spatial clustering of obesity and a number of related health and economic indicators, and we use statistical physics methods to characterize the growth of the resulting clusters. The resulting scaling exponents allow us to broadly classify these indicators into two separate universality classes, weakly or strongly correlated. Weak correlations are found in generic human activity such as population distribution and the growth of the whole economy. Strong correlations are recovered, among others, for obesity, diabetes, and the food industry sectors associated with food consumption. Obesity turns out to be a global problem where local details are of little importance. The long-range correlations suggest influence that extends to large scales, hinting that the physical model of obesity clustering can be mapped to a long-range correlated percolation process.

  13. An analytical study of the improved nonlinear tolerance of DFT-spread OFDM and its unitary-spread OFDM generalization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shulkind, Gal; Nazarathy, Moshe

    2012-11-05

    DFT-spread (DFT-S) coherent optical OFDM was numerically and experimentally shown to provide improved nonlinear tolerance over an optically amplified dispersion uncompensated fiber link, relative to both conventional coherent OFDM and single-carrier transmission. Here we provide an analytic model rigorously accounting for this numerical result and precisely predicting the optimal bandwidth per DFT-S sub-band (or equivalently the optimal number of sub-bands per optical channel) required in order to maximize the link non-linear tolerance (NLT). The NLT advantage of DFT-S OFDM is traced to the particular statistical dependency introduced among the OFDM sub-carriers by means of the DFT spreading operation. We further extend DFT-S to a unitary-spread generalized modulation format which includes as special cases the DFT-S scheme as well as a new format which we refer to as wavelet-spread (WAV-S) OFDM, replacing the spreading DFTs by Hadamard matrices which have elements +/-1 hence are multiplier-free. The extra complexity incurred in the spreading operation is almost negligible, however the performance improvement with WAV-S relative to plain OFDM is more modest than that achieved by DFT-S, which remains the preferred format for nonlinear tolerance improvement, outperforming both plain OFDM and single-carrier schemes.

  14. Development of a hull-less pumpkin (Cucurbita pepo L.) seed oil press-cake spread.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radočaj, Olga; Dimić, Etelka; Vujasinović, Vesna

    2012-09-01

    A stable, oil-based spread rich in the omega-3 (ω-3) and omega-6 (ω-6) fatty acids was developed using a hull-less pumpkin seed (Cucurbita pepo L.) oil press-cake, a by-product of the pumpkin oil pressing process, along with cold-pressed hemp oil. Response surface methodology (RSM) was applied to investigate the effects of two factors, as the formulation's compositional variables: a commercial stabilizer (X(1) ) and cold-pressed hemp oil (X(2) ) added to the pumpkin seed oil press-cake in the spread formulations. A central composite, 2-factorial experimental design on 5 levels was used to optimize the spreads where model responses were ω-3 fatty acids content, spreadability (hardness), oil separation, and sensory evaluation. The selected responses were significantly affected by both variables (P spreads resembled commercial peanut butter, both in appearance, texture and spreadability; were a source of ω-3 fatty acids and with no visual oil separation after 1 mo of storage. An optimum spread was produced using 1.25% (w/w) of stabilizer and 80% of hemp oil (w/w, of the total added oil) which had 0.97 g of ω-3 fatty acids per serving size; penetration depth of 68.4 mm; oil separation of 9.2% after 3 mo of storage; and a sensory score of 17.5. A use of by-products generated from different food processing technologies, where the edible waste is successfully incorporated as a value-added ingredient, has become a very important area of research to support global sustainability efforts. This study contributes to the knowledge of a product design process for oil-based spread development, where oil press-cake, a by-product of the oil pressing process of the naked pumpkin seeds, was used and where results have demonstrated that a new product can be successfully developed and potentially manufactured as a functional food. © 2012 Institute of Food Technologists®

  15. Spreading Culture on Quantum Entanglement and Consciousness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nobili, G.; Teodorani, M.

    The subject of "quantum entanglement" in general doesn't seem to be particularly considered in Europe in the form of popularizing books or of educational physics projects. These authors have started to spread out this kind of scientific culture in both forms, including popularizing seminars too. Concerning the entanglement phenomenon, recently, new thought experiments have been outlined, new laboratory results have come out in the form of real discoveries in quantum optics, new studies on "bio-entanglement" and 'global consciousness effects' have been carried out, and very sophisticated new ideas have been developed in the fields of quantum physics, biophysics, cosmology and epistemology. These authors intend to show their effort of diffusing widely this growing scientific knowledge. Beyond all this there is a long-term strategy aimed at inculcating new concepts in physics in order to trigger the interest of scholars at all levels, in that which is probably the most innovative and interdisciplinary subject of the human knowledge of this new millennium.

  16. Status of the assessment of the spreading code Thema against the Corine experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spindler, B.; Veteau, J.M.

    1999-01-01

    In the framework of severe accident research on PWR, the Thema code aims at predicting the spreading extent of Corium in given conditions of pouring rate, initial Corium composition and temperature and considers phenomena as complex as top, bottom freezing and melting of the substrate. This paper makes the current status of the assessment of the code against the Corine experimental program which considers separate effect tests working out non freezing and low melting point simulating materials to validate some essential models present in spreading codes. Isothermal tests using water-glycerol mixtures are first considered to investigate the validity of the friction law and the extent of surface tension effects at the front. Non isothermal spreading with bottom freezing is then considered. Comparison of results of the code with known solutions of different problems related to solidification of a moving warm liquid, thermal chock and conduction in the bottom plate appears to be a very useful tool to verify the relevance of the models and to adjust numerical parameters. Finally, first spreading calculations with bottom freezing are compared with Corine experiments using the eutectic Bismuth-Tin alloy as working material. (author)

  17. Validity Evidence for the Interpretation and Use of Essential Elements of Communication Global Rating Scale Scores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, Nancy Rhoda

    2015-01-01

    Purpose. Clinical communication influences health outcomes, so medical schools are charged to prepare future physicians with the skills they need to interact effectively with patients. Communication leaders at The University of New Mexico School of Medicine (UNMSOM) developed The Essential Elements of Communication-Global Rating Scale (EEC-GRS) to…

  18. Spreading dynamics of power-law fluid droplets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liang Zhanpeng; Peng Xiaofeng; Wang Xiaodong; Lee, D-J; Su Ay

    2009-01-01

    This paper aims at providing a summary of the theoretical models available for non-Newtonian fluid spreading dynamics. Experimental findings and model predictions for a Newtonian fluid spreading test are briefly reviewed. Then how the complete wetting and partial wetting power-law fluids spread over a solid substrate is examined. The possible extension of Newtonian fluid models to power-law fluids is also discussed.

  19. Asymmetrically interacting spreading dynamics on complex layered networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wei; Tang, Ming; Yang, Hui; Younghae Do; Lai, Ying-Cheng; Lee, GyuWon

    2014-05-29

    The spread of disease through a physical-contact network and the spread of information about the disease on a communication network are two intimately related dynamical processes. We investigate the asymmetrical interplay between the two types of spreading dynamics, each occurring on its own layer, by focusing on the two fundamental quantities underlying any spreading process: epidemic threshold and the final infection ratio. We find that an epidemic outbreak on the contact layer can induce an outbreak on the communication layer, and information spreading can effectively raise the epidemic threshold. When structural correlation exists between the two layers, the information threshold remains unchanged but the epidemic threshold can be enhanced, making the contact layer more resilient to epidemic outbreak. We develop a physical theory to understand the intricate interplay between the two types of spreading dynamics.

  20. Information spreading in Delay Tolerant Networks based on nodes' behaviors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yahui; Deng, Su; Huang, Hongbin

    2014-07-01

    Information spreading in DTNs (Delay Tolerant Networks) adopts a store-carry-forward method, and nodes receive the message from others directly. However, it is hard to judge whether the information is safe in this communication mode. In this case, a node may observe other nodes' behaviors. At present, there is no theoretical model to describe the varying rule of the nodes' trusting level. In addition, due to the uncertainty of the connectivity in DTN, a node is hard to get the global state of the network. Therefore, a rational model about the node's trusting level should be a function of the node's own observing result. For example, if a node finds k nodes carrying a message, it may trust the information with probability p(k). This paper does not explore the real distribution of p(k), but instead presents a unifying theoretical framework to evaluate the performance of the information spreading in above case. This framework is an extension of the traditional SI (susceptible-infected) model, and is useful when p(k) conforms to any distribution. Simulations based on both synthetic and real motion traces show the accuracy of the framework. Finally, we explore the impact of the nodes' behaviors based on certain special distributions through numerical results.

  1. Global Carrier Rates of Rare Inherited Disorders Using Population Exome Sequences.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kohei Fujikura

    Full Text Available Exome sequencing has revealed the causative mutations behind numerous rare, inherited disorders, but it is challenging to find reliable epidemiological values for rare disorders. Here, I provide a genetic epidemiology method to identify the causative mutations behind rare, inherited disorders using two population exome sequences (1000 Genomes and NHLBI. I created global maps of carrier rate distribution for 18 recessive disorders in 16 diverse ethnic populations. Out of a total of 161 mutations associated with 18 recessive disorders, I detected 24 mutations in either or both exome studies. The genetic mapping revealed strong international spatial heterogeneities in the carrier patterns of the inherited disorders. I next validated this methodology by statistically evaluating the carrier rate of one well-understood disorder, sickle cell anemia (SCA. The population exome-based epidemiology of SCA [African (allele frequency (AF = 0.0454, N = 2447, Asian (AF = 0, N = 286, European (AF = 0.000214, N = 4677, and Hispanic (AF = 0.0111, N = 362] was not significantly different from that obtained from a clinical prevalence survey. A pair-wise proportion test revealed no significant differences between the two exome projects in terms of AF (46/48 cases; P > 0.05. I conclude that population exome-based carrier rates can form the foundation for a prospectively maintained database of use to clinical geneticists. Similar modeling methods can be applied to many inherited disorders.

  2. Scaling laws with current for equilibrium momentum spread and emittances from intrabeam scattering and electron cooling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hasse, R.W.; Boine-Frankenheim, O.

    2004-01-01

    Based on the theories of Piwinski, Bjorken-Mtingawa and Martini of Coulomb scattering, expressions for the heating rates due to intrabeam scattering were known since a long time. Simplifications by Wei-Parzen and Rao and Piwinski led to analytic approximations which are easily applicable to existing lattices. We use these approximations and also the formulae from thermal equilibration of Struckmeier and equate them to either constant cooling rates from electron cooling or to the Novosibirsk cooling rates for electron cooling to calculate the equilibrium values of the horizontal and vertical emittances and the momentum spread (longitudinal emittance) for typical beams in the ESR or in the HESR. For constant cooling and all approximation formulae the ratio of current to the product of the three emittances remains almost constant. This yields a slope of the momentum spread with current between 0.2 and 0.3, in agreement with experimental data. Using the Novosibirsk cooling rates this slope is much larger

  3. The small world yields the most effective information spreading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lü Linyuan; Chen Duanbing; Zhou Tao

    2011-01-01

    The spreading dynamics of information and diseases are usually analyzed by using a unified framework and analogous models. In this paper, we propose a model to emphasize the essential difference between information spreading and epidemic spreading, where the memory effects, the social reinforcement and the non-redundancy of contacts are taken into account. Under certain conditions, the information spreads faster and broader in regular networks than in random networks, which to some extent supports the recent experimental observation of spreading in online society (Centola D 2010 Science 329 1194). At the same time, the simulation result indicates that the random networks tend to be favorable for effective spreading when the network size increases. This challenges the validity of the above-mentioned experiment for large-scale systems. More importantly, we show that the spreading effectiveness can be sharply enhanced by introducing a little randomness into the regular structure, namely the small-world networks yield the most effective information spreading. This work provides insights into the role of local clustering in information spreading. (paper)

  4. Fire spread in chaparral – a comparison of laboratory data and model predictions in burning live fuels

    Science.gov (United States)

    David R. Weise; Eunmo Koo; Xiangyang Zhou; Shankar Mahalingam; Frédéric Morandini; Jacques-Henri Balbi

    2016-01-01

    Fire behaviour data from 240 laboratory fires in high-density live chaparral fuel beds were compared with model predictions. Logistic regression was used to develop a model to predict fire spread success in the fuel beds and linear regression was used to predict rate of spread. Predictions from the Rothermel equation and three proposed changes as well as two physically...

  5. Population Movement and Virus Spreading: HEV Spreading in a Pilgrimage City, Mashhad in Northeast Iran; an Example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmadi Ghezeldasht, Sanaz; Miri, Rahele; Hedayatimoghadam, Mohamadreza; Shamsian, Aliakbar; Bidkhori, Hamidreza; Fathimoghadam, Fahad; Rezaee, Seyyed Abdorrahim

    2013-01-01

    Hepatitis E Virus (HEV) infection is a significant public health concern and responsible for large outbreaks of acute hepatitis in poor sanitary and living conditions. To investigate the impact of population movements on virus spreading, a large-scale population-based survey was performed in a pilgrimage- tourism area, the great Mashhad, capital city of Khorasan province. A cross-sectional study was carried out among 1582 randomly selected individuals from general population of Mashhad, north east of Iran, between May to September 2009. Serum samples were tested for total anti-HEV antibody using a specific enzyme linked immunoassay (ELISA) kit. The prevalence of HEV infection was 14.2% (225/1582) with a maximum of 25.5 % (14/55) in densely populated areas. The highest prevalence was observed in visitant areas (≥ 20%) near the holly shrine with crowded hotels and inns. The differences between these areas and other districts were statistically significant (P socio-economic status, Illiterate individuals were significantly at higher risk for infection than educated persons (P < 0.001). These findings demonstrated that, high prevalence of HEV is related to populated district, which can reach to the highest rate in hotels and inns close to visitants. Traditional sanitation and water supplying systems are the second important factor for the virus transmission. Therefore, it can be concluded that such areas need efficient surveillance systems to prevent the spreading of infectious diseases.

  6. Credit Spreads Across the Business Cycle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Mads Stenbo

    This paper studies how corporate bond spreads vary with the business cycle. I show that both level and slope of empirical credit spread curves are correlated with the state of the economy, and I link this to variation in idiosyncratic jump risk. I develop a structural credit risk model...... that accounts for both business cycle and jump risk, and show by estimation that the model captures the counter-cyclical level and pro-cyclical slope of empirical credit spread curves. In addition, I provide a new procedure for estimation of idiosyncratic jump risk, which is consistent with observed shocks...

  7. Drought Persistence Errors in Global Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moon, H.; Gudmundsson, L.; Seneviratne, S. I.

    2018-04-01

    The persistence of drought events largely determines the severity of socioeconomic and ecological impacts, but the capability of current global climate models (GCMs) to simulate such events is subject to large uncertainties. In this study, the representation of drought persistence in GCMs is assessed by comparing state-of-the-art GCM model simulations to observation-based data sets. For doing so, we consider dry-to-dry transition probabilities at monthly and annual scales as estimates for drought persistence, where a dry status is defined as negative precipitation anomaly. Though there is a substantial spread in the drought persistence bias, most of the simulations show systematic underestimation of drought persistence at global scale. Subsequently, we analyzed to which degree (i) inaccurate observations, (ii) differences among models, (iii) internal climate variability, and (iv) uncertainty of the employed statistical methods contribute to the spread in drought persistence errors using an analysis of variance approach. The results show that at monthly scale, model uncertainty and observational uncertainty dominate, while the contribution from internal variability is small in most cases. At annual scale, the spread of the drought persistence error is dominated by the statistical estimation error of drought persistence, indicating that the partitioning of the error is impaired by the limited number of considered time steps. These findings reveal systematic errors in the representation of drought persistence in current GCMs and suggest directions for further model improvement.

  8. Risk spreading, connectivity, and optimal reserve spacing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blowes, Shane A; Connolly, Sean R

    2012-01-01

    Two important processes determining the dynamics of spatially structured populations are dispersal and the spatial covariance of demographic fluctuations. Spatially explicit approaches to conservation, such as reserve networks, must consider the tension between these two processes and reach a balance between distances near enough to maintain connectivity, but far enough to benefit from risk spreading. Here, we model this trade-off. We show how two measures of metapopulation persistence depend on the shape of the dispersal kernel and the shape of the distance decay in demographic covariance, and we consider the implications of this trade-off for reserve spacing. The relative rates of distance decay in dispersal and demographic covariance determine whether the long-run metapopulation growth rate, and quasi-extinction risk, peak for adjacent patches or intermediately spaced patches; two local maxima in metapopulation persistence are also possible. When dispersal itself fluctuates over time, the trade-off changes. Temporal variation in mean distance that propagules are dispersed (i.e., propagule advection) decreases metapopulation persistence and decreases the likelihood that persistence will peak for adjacent patches. Conversely, variation in diffusion (the extent of random spread around mean dispersal) increases metapopulation persistence overall and causes it to peak at shorter inter-patch distances. Thus, failure to consider temporal variation in dispersal processes increases the risk that reserve spacings will fail to meet the objective of ensuring metapopulation persistence. This study identifies two phenomena that receive relatively little attention in empirical work on reserve spacing, but that can qualitatively change the effectiveness of reserve spacing strategies: (1) the functional form of the distance decay in covariance among patch-specific demographic rates and (2) temporal variation in the shape of the dispersal kernel. The sensitivity of metapopulation

  9. Red brome (Bromus rubens subsp. madritensis) in North America: Possible modes for early introductions, subsequent spread

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salo, L.F.

    2005-01-01

    Although invasions by exotic plants have increased dramatically as human travel and commerce have increased, few have been comprehensively described. Understanding the patterns of invasive species spread over space and time will help guide management activities and policy. Tracing the earliest appearances of an exotic plant reveals likely sites of introduction, paving the way for genetic studies to quantify founder events and identify potential source populations. Red brome (Bromus madritensis subsp. rubens) is a Mediterranean winter annual grass that has invaded even relatively undisturbed areas of western North America, where it threatens native plant communities. This study used herbarium records and contemporary published accounts to trace the early introductions and subsequent spread of red brome in western North America. The results challenge the most frequently cited sources describing the early history of this grass and suggest three possible modes for early introductions: the California Gold Rush and Central Valley wheat, southern California shipping, and northern California sheep. Subsequent periods of most rapid spread into new areas, from 1930 to 1942, and of greatest spread into new regions, during the past 50 years, coincide with warm Pacific Decadal Oscillation regimes, which are linked to increased winter precipitation in the southwestern USA and northern Mexico. Global environmental change, including increased atmospheric CO2 levels and N deposition, may be contributing to the success of red brome, relative to native species.

  10. Generation and reception of spread-spectrum signals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moser, R.

    1983-05-01

    The term 'spread-spectrum' implies a technique whereby digitized information is added to a pseudo-random number sequence and the resultant bit stream changes some parameter of the carrier frequency in discrete increments. The discrete modulation of the carrier frequency is usually realized either as a multiple level phase shift keyed or frequency shift keyed signal. The resultant PSK-modulated frequency spectrum is referred to as direct sequence spread-spectrum, whereas the FSK-modulated carrier frequency is referred to as a frequency hopped spread spectrum. These can be considered the major subsets of the more general term 'spread-spectrum'. In discussing signal reception, it is pointed out that active correlation methods are used for channel synchronization when the psuedo random sequences are long or when the processing gain is large, whereas the passive methods may be used for either short pseudo-random noise generation codes or to assist in attaining initial synchronization in long sequence spread-spectrum systems.

  11. Determinants of Commercial Banks' Interest Rate Spread in Namibia ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    reduces net interest margin whilst the liquidity levels of a commercial bank increases ... and the capital ratio are not important determinants of the net interest margin. .... profitable and resilient to shocks including the recent financial crisis .... affects its business operations including its decision of what interest rate to charge.

  12. Quantitative risk assessment of continuous liquid spill fires based on spread and burning behaviours

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Jinlong; Huang, Hong; Li, Yuntao

    2017-01-01

    Spill fires usually occur during the storage and transportation of hazardous materials, posing a threat to the people and environment in their immediate proximity. In this paper, a classical Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) method is used to assess the risk of spill fires. In this method......, the maximum spread area and the steady burning area are introduced as parameters to clearly assess the range of influence of the spill fire. In the calculations, a modified spread model that takes into consideration the burning rate variation is established to calculate the maximum spread area. Furthermore......, large-scale experiments of spill fires on water and a glass sheet were conducted to verify the accuracy and application of the model. The results show that the procedure we developed can be used to quantitatively calculate the risk associated with a continuous spill fire....

  13. ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS OF GLOBALIZATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oana CHINDRIS-VASIOIU

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The confrontation between third millennium will not be between civilizations but between forces of globalization and global agents. Already live in a global economy, context in which it is necessary to understand by globalization the modernization process of life world by spreading economic means of production and communication at world level. Globalization produces a capitalism healthy whereas stimulates competition beneficial between an ever-increasing number of companies. Economic and political unification under the global financial corporate banner is accompanied by mixing spiritual values and return unique realm. After internationalism political correctness (multiculturalism, feminism, ecological radically administered Western individualism typical bruising, it seems that the ground is ready for the big toe-in. Globalization can be seen as a crucial stage of expansion and economic interdependence. This stage is completing a process of aggregation of relatively autonomous local economies whose element mainly in the past has been constant widening of the space for the exchange of each economic savings. Economic renewal based on knowledge of known but a contrary geospatial evolution. Advances in knowledge are favored and intimately linked to the possibility of communication. So, they are favored by communication infrastructure and communication technologies.

  14. Impact of Exchange Rate Movements, Global Economic Activity, and the BDI Volatility on Loaded Port Cargo Throughput in South Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chang Beom Kim

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the effects of exchange rate movements, global economic activity, and the volatility of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI on South Korea's loaded port cargo throughput, based on monthly data for the period from January 2000 to October 2014. The results indicate that the BDI volatility has a negative effect on the loaded cargo throughput, while increases in the nominal exchange rate and in global economy activity have a positive effect. In addition, the error correction model results show that the error correction term is statistically significant with the negative sign.

  15. Heterogeneous incidence and propagation of spreading depolarizations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufmann, Dan; Theriot, Jeremy J; Zyuzin, Jekaterina; Service, C Austin; Chang, Joshua C; Tang, Y Tanye; Bogdanov, Vladimir B; Multon, Sylvie; Schoenen, Jean; Ju, Y Sungtaek

    2016-01-01

    Spreading depolarizations are implicated in a diverse set of neurologic diseases. They are unusual forms of nervous system activity in that they propagate very slowly and approximately concentrically, apparently not respecting the anatomic, synaptic, functional, or vascular architecture of the brain. However, there is evidence that spreading depolarizations are not truly concentric, isotropic, or homogeneous, either in space or in time. Here we present evidence from KCl-induced spreading depolarizations, in mouse and rat, in vivo and in vitro, showing the great variability that these depolarizations can exhibit. This variability can help inform the mechanistic understanding of spreading depolarizations, and it has implications for their phenomenology in neurologic disease. PMID:27562866

  16. Peculiarities of spreading separatist trends in the Modern World in the context of development of the global processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bostan Sergii Ivanovich

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The international collaboration is entering the new era of globalization revealing not only the new ways of development and quantum growth for humanity but also new threats, problems and global conflicts. There is now doubt that humanity is facing new global range of problems, agenda of the 21st century and urgent issues of global organization of the world order and systems of global administration acceptable for all states. Preventing distribution of international confrontation between the major political players through advancement of separatist and terrorist trends must become the main priority for the international system of collective security, which should be changed according to the realities of the modern global processes.

  17. Melt spreading code assessment, modifications, and initial application to the EPR core catcher design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farmer, M.T.; Basu, S.

    2009-01-01

    The Evolutionary Power Reactor (EPR) is a 1,600-MWe Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) that is undergoing a design certification review by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The EPR severe accident design philosophy is predicated upon the fact that the projected power rating results in a narrow margin for in-vessel melt retention by external flooding. As a result, the design addresses ex-vessel core melt stabilization using a mitigation strategy that includes: 1) an external core melt retention system to temporarily hold core melt released from the vessel; 2) a layer of 'sacrificial' material that is admixed with the melt while in the core melt retention system; 3) a melt plug that, when failed, provides a pathway for the mixture to spread to a large core spreading chamber; and finally, 4) cooling and stabilization of the spread melt by controlled top and bottom flooding. The melt spreading process relies heavily on inertial flow of a low-viscosity admixed melt to a segmented spreading chamber, and assumes that the melt mass will be distributed to a uniform height in the chamber. The spreading phenomenon thus needs to be modeled properly in order to adequately assess the EPR design. The MELTSPREAD code, developed at Argonne National Laboratory, can model segmented, and both uniform and non-uniform spreading. The NRC is using MELTSPREAD to evaluate melt spreading in the EPR design. The development of MELTSPREAD ceased in the early 1990's, and so the code was first assessed against the more contemporary spreading database and code modifications, as warranted, were carried out before performing confirmatory plant calculations. This paper provides principle findings from the MELTSPREAD assessment activities and resulting code modifications, and also summarizes the results of initial scoping calculations for the EPR plant design and preliminary plant analyses, along with the plan for performing the final set of plant calculations including sensitivity studies

  18. An Exploration of Iranian EFL Teachers' Perceptions on the Globalization and Hegemony of English

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safari, Parvin; Razmjoo, Seyyed Ayatollah

    2016-01-01

    Globalization as an increasingly influencing force has led English language to become the lingua franca of the world. However, the global spread of English is considered as linguistic and cultural imperialism of English speaking countries to exert their dominance, power, culture, ideology and language over the periphery countries. The devastating…

  19. Non-isothermal spreading of liquid drops on horizontal plates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ehrhard, P.; Davis, S.H.

    1990-05-01

    A viscous-liquid drop spreads on a smooth horizontal surface, which is uniformly heated or cooled. Lubrication theory is used to study thin drops subject to capillary, thermocapillary and gravity forces, and a variety of contact-angle-versus-speed conditions. It is found for isothermal drops that gravity is very important at large times and determines the power law for unlimited spreading. Predictions compare well with the experimental data on isothermal spreading for both two-dimensional and axisymmetric configurations. It is found that heating (cooling) retards (augments) the spreading process. When the advancing contact angle is zero, heating will cause the drop to spread only finitely far. For positive advancing contact angles, sufficient cooling will cause unlimited spreading. Thus, the heat transfer serves as a sentitive control on the spreading. (orig.) [de

  20. Global oral inequalities in HIV infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Challacombe, S J

    2016-04-01

    Analysis of the prevalence and incidence of HIV infection globally reveal striking variances with regard to continent, country, region and gender. Of the global total of 33 million people infected with HIV, approximately 65% are in sub-Saharan African countries and 15% in South and South-East Asia with the remaining 20% spread over the rest of the world. As a percentage of the population, the Caribbean at 1.1% is second only to sub-Saharan Africa (5.5%). The majority of the world's HIV is in women. Deaths from HIV are twenty-fold greater in Africa than in Europe or the USA. Individual countries in sub-Saharan Africa show huge variances in the HIV+ prevalence with most West African countries having a rate of less than 2% whilst southern African countries including Swaziland and Botswana have rates of around 25%. Environment, education and social habits all contribute to the HIV infection rates. Similar variations between countries are seen in SE Asia with Cambodia and Papua New Guinea having rates three times greater than Pakistan. One of the most striking examples of inequality is in life years added to HIV populations as a result of antiretroviral therapy. UN AIDS figures over 1996-2008 suggest an average of 2.88 added years in the USA and Europe, but only 0.1 in sub-Saharan Africa, a thirty-fold difference largely due to accessibility to ART. ART leads to a reduction in oral lesions but it is estimated that some 10 million HIV+ subjects do not have access to oral care. Thus, inequalities exist both for HIV infection and for the associated oral lesions, mainly related to ART access. HIV infection and oral mucosal lesions both appear to be related to general social determinants of health. Oral HCW must be part of mainstream healthcare teams to address these inequalities. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. Overall scores as an alternative to global ratings in patient experience surveys : A comparison of four methods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krol, M.W.; de Boer, D.; Rademakers, J.J.D.J.M.; Delnoij, D.

    2013-01-01

    Background Global ratings of healthcare by patients are a popular way of summarizing patients’ experiences. Summary scores can be used for comparing healthcare provider performance and provider rankings. As an alternative, overall scores from actual patient experiences can be constructed as summary

  2. Uneven futures of human lifespans: reckonings from Gompertz mortality rates, climate change, and air pollution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finch, Caleb E; Beltrán-Sánchez, Hiram; Crimmins, Eileen M

    2014-01-01

    The past 200 years have enabled remarkable increases in human lifespans through improvements in the living environment that have nearly eliminated infections as a cause of death through improved hygiene, public health, medicine, and nutrition. We argue that the limit to lifespan may be approaching. Since 1997, no one has exceeded Jeanne Calment's record of 122.5 years, despite an exponential increase of centenarians. Moreover, the background mortality may be approaching a lower limit. We calculate from Gompertz coefficients that further increases in longevity to approach a life expectancy of 100 years in 21st century cohorts would require 50% slower mortality rate accelerations, which would be a fundamental change in the rate of human aging. Looking into the 21st century, we see further challenges to health and longevity from the continued burning of fossil fuels that contribute to air pollution as well as global warming. Besides increased heat waves to which elderly are vulnerable, global warming is anticipated to increase ozone levels and facilitate the spread of pathogens. We anticipate continuing socioeconomic disparities in life expectancy.

  3. Hotel chains of the global South: The internationalization of South African hotel brands

    OpenAIRE

    Rogerson, Jayne M.

    2016-01-01

    The global hotel industry is at the heart of the tourism production system and dominated by chain affiliated hotels. Understanding the international spread of hotel chains is a critical issue in contemporary tourism scholarship. Although the internationalization of hotel chains based in the global North is extensively researched, limited work exists on hotel chains based in the global South. This paper addresses the internationalization and destination choice in Africa of South African based ...

  4. The global spread of Zika virus: is public and media concern justified in regions currently unaffected?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Narayan Gyawali; Richard S.Bradbury; Andrew W.Taylor-Robinson

    2016-01-01

    Background:Zika virus,an Aedes mosquito-borne flavivirus,is fast becoming a worldwide public health concern following its suspected association with over 4000 recent cases of microcephaly among newborn infants in Brazil.Discussion:Prior to its emergence in Latin America in 2015-2016,Zika was known to exist at a relatively low prevalence in parts of Africa,Asia and the Pacific islands.An extension of its apparent global dispersion may be enabled by climate conditions suitable to support the population growth ofA.aegypti and A.albopictus mosquitoes over an expanding geographical range.In addition,increased globalisation continues to pose a risk for the spread of infection.Further,suspicions of alternative modes of virus transmission (sexual and vertical),if proven,provide a platform for outbreaks in mosquito non-endemic regions as well.Since a vaccine or anti-viral therapy is not yet available,current means of disease prevention involve protection from mosquito bites,excluding pregnant females from travelling to Zika-endemic territories,and practicing safe sex in those countries.Importantly,in countries where Zika is reported as endemic,caution is advised in planning to conceive a baby until such time as the apparent association between infection with the virus and microcephaly is either confirmed or refuted.The question arises as to what advice is appropriate to give in more economically developed countries distant to the current epidemic and in which Zika has not yet been reported.Summary:Despite understandable concern among the general public that has been fuelled by the media,in regions where Zika is not present,such as North America,Europe and Australia,at this time any outbreak (initiated by an infected traveler returning from an endemic area) would very probably be contained locally.Since Aedes spp.has very limited spatial dispersal,overlapping high population densities of mosquitoes and humans would be needed to sustain a focus of infection.However,as A

  5. The global spread of Zika virus: is public and media concern justified in regions currently unaffected?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gyawali, Narayan; Bradbury, Richard S; Taylor-Robinson, Andrew W

    2016-04-19

    Zika virus, an Aedes mosquito-borne flavivirus, is fast becoming a worldwide public health concern following its suspected association with over 4000 recent cases of microcephaly among newborn infants in Brazil. Prior to its emergence in Latin America in 2015-2016, Zika was known to exist at a relatively low prevalence in parts of Africa, Asia and the Pacific islands. An extension of its apparent global dispersion may be enabled by climate conditions suitable to support the population growth of A. aegypti and A. albopictus mosquitoes over an expanding geographical range. In addition, increased globalisation continues to pose a risk for the spread of infection. Further, suspicions of alternative modes of virus transmission (sexual and vertical), if proven, provide a platform for outbreaks in mosquito non-endemic regions as well. Since a vaccine or anti-viral therapy is not yet available, current means of disease prevention involve protection from mosquito bites, excluding pregnant females from travelling to Zika-endemic territories, and practicing safe sex in those countries. Importantly, in countries where Zika is reported as endemic, caution is advised in planning to conceive a baby until such time as the apparent association between infection with the virus and microcephaly is either confirmed or refuted. The question arises as to what advice is appropriate to give in more economically developed countries distant to the current epidemic and in which Zika has not yet been reported. Despite understandable concern among the general public that has been fuelled by the media, in regions where Zika is not present, such as North America, Europe and Australia, at this time any outbreak (initiated by an infected traveler returning from an endemic area) would very probably be contained locally. Since Aedes spp. has very limited spatial dispersal, overlapping high population densities of mosquitoes and humans would be needed to sustain a focus of infection. However, as A

  6. Persistent increase in oxygen consumption and impaired neurovascular coupling after spreading depression in rat neocortex

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Henning Piilgaard; Lauritzen, Martin

    2009-01-01

    trauma. Here we tested the hypothesis that single episodes of CSD induced acute hypoxia, and prolonged impairment of neurovascular and neurometabolic coupling. Cortical spreading depression was induced in rat frontal cortex, whereas cortical electrical activity and local field potentials (LFPs) were......Cortical spreading depression (CSD) is associated with a dramatic failure of brain ion homeostasis and increased energy metabolism. There is strong clinical and experimental evidence to suggest that CSD is the mechanism of migraine, and involved in progressive neuronal injury in stroke and head...... recorded by glass microelectrodes, cerebral blood flow (CBF) by laser-Doppler flowmetry, and tissue oxygen tension (tpO(2)) with polarographic microelectrodes. Cortical spreading depression increased cerebral metabolic rate of oxygen (CMRO(2)) by 71%+/-6.7% and CBF by 238%+/-48.1% for 1 to 2 mins...

  7. The adaptation rate of terrestrial ecosystems as a critical factor in global climate dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fuessler, J S; Gassmann, F [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

    1999-08-01

    A conceptual climate model describing regional two-way atmosphere-vegetation interaction has been extended by a simple qualitative scheme of ecosystem adaptation to drought stress. The results of this explorative study indicate that the role of terrestrial vegetation under different forcing scenarios depends crucially on the rate of the ecosystems adaptation to drought stress. The faster the adaptation of important ecosystems such as forests the better global climate is protected from abrupt climate changes. (author) 1 fig., 3 refs.

  8. Potential spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 by wildfowl: dispersal ranges and rates determined from large-scale satellite telemetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaidet, Nicolas; Cappelle, Julien; Takekawa, John Y.; Prosser, Diann J.; Iverson, Samuel A.; Douglas, David C.; Perry, William M.; Mundkur, Taej; Newman, Scott H.

    2010-01-01

    1. Migratory birds are major candidates for long-distance dispersal of zoonotic pathogens. In recent years, wildfowl have been suspected of contributing to the rapid geographic spread of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus. Experimental infection studies reveal that some wild ducks, geese and swans shed this virus asymptomatically and hence have the potential to spread it as they move. 2. We evaluate the dispersive potential of HPAI H5N1 viruses by wildfowl through an analysis of the movement range and movement rate of birds monitored by satellite telemetry in relation to the apparent asymptomatic infection duration (AID) measured in experimental studies. We analysed the first large-scale data set of wildfowl movements, including 228 birds from 19 species monitored by satellite telemetry in 2006–2009, over HPAI H5N1 affected regions of Asia, Europe and Africa. 3. Our results indicate that individual migratory wildfowl have the potential to disperse HPAI H5N1 over extensive distances, being able to perform movements of up to 2900 km within timeframes compatible with the duration of asymptomatic infection. 4. However, the likelihood of such virus dispersal over long distances by individual wildfowl is low: we estimate that for an individual migratory bird there are, on average, only 5–15 days per year when infection could result in the dispersal of HPAI H5N1 virus over 500 km. 5. Staging at stopover sites during migration is typically longer than the period of infection and viral shedding, preventing birds from dispersing a virus over several consecutive but interrupted long-distance movements. Intercontinental virus dispersion would therefore probably require relay transmission between a series of successively infected migratory birds. 6. Synthesis and applications. Our results provide a detailed quantitative assessment of the dispersive potential of HPAI H5N1 virus by selected migratory birds. Such dispersive potential rests on the

  9. The birth and spread of IWRM - A case study of global policy diffusion and translation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeremy Allouche

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available How did the idea of IWRM emerge at the global level? Why has IWRM become so popular and so resilient, at least in discourse and policy? What has caused IWRM policies to diffuse across time and space? The principal goal of this article is to identify a set of concepts and mechanisms to study the global diffusion and translation of IWRM through coercion, cooperation, or learning from the ground. The article will also highlight the extent to which this global diffusion was contested and translated into different meanings in terms of policy orientation. Overall, IWRM was a mindset of a particular period where the water policy paradigm was evolving in the same direction as sustainable development and other related paradigms in a post-Rio moment. There were no clear alternatives at the time but now IWRM is being questioned. This IWRM fatigue is leading to other framings and discourses around the water-food-energy nexus and the green economy.

  10. Spread of anti-malarial drug resistance: Mathematical model with implications for ACT drug policies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dondorp Arjen M

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Most malaria-endemic countries are implementing a change in anti-malarial drug policy to artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT. The impact of different drug choices and implementation strategies is uncertain. Data from many epidemiological studies in different levels of malaria endemicity and in areas with the highest prevalence of drug resistance like borders of Thailand are certainly valuable. Formulating an appropriate dynamic data-driven model is a powerful predictive tool for exploring the impact of these strategies quantitatively. Methods A comprehensive model was constructed incorporating important epidemiological and biological factors of human, mosquito, parasite and treatment. The iterative process of developing the model, identifying data needed, and parameterization has been taken to strongly link the model to the empirical evidence. The model provides quantitative measures of outcomes, such as malaria prevalence/incidence and treatment failure, and illustrates the spread of resistance in low and high transmission settings. The model was used to evaluate different anti-malarial policy options focusing on ACT deployment. Results The model predicts robustly that in low transmission settings drug resistance spreads faster than in high transmission settings, and treatment failure is the main force driving the spread of drug resistance. In low transmission settings, ACT slows the spread of drug resistance to a partner drug, especially at high coverage rates. This effect decreases exponentially with increasing delay in deploying the ACT and decreasing rates of coverage. In the high transmission settings, however, drug resistance is driven by the proportion of the human population with a residual drug level, which gives resistant parasites some survival advantage. The spread of drug resistance could be slowed down by controlling presumptive drug use and avoiding the use of combination therapies containing drugs with

  11. Quantitative Infrared Image Analysis Of Simultaneous Upstream and Downstream Microgravity Flame Spread over Thermally-Thin Cellulose in Low Speed Forced Flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olson, S. L.; Lee, J. R.; Fujita, O.; Kikuchi, M.; Kashiwagi, T.

    2013-01-01

    The effect of low velocity forced flow on microgravity flame spread is examined using quantitative analysis of infrared video imaging. The objective of the quantitative analysis is to provide insight into the mechanisms of flame spread in microgravity where the flame is able to spread from a central location on the fuel surface, rather than from an edge. Surface view calibrated infrared images of ignition and flame spread over a thin cellulose fuel were obtained along with a color video of the surface view and color images of the edge view using 35 mm color film at 2 Hz. The cellulose fuel samples were mounted in the center of a 12 cm wide by 16 cm tall flow duct and were ignited in microgravity using a straight hot wire across the center of the 7.5 cm wide by 14 cm long samples. Four cases, at 1 atm. 35%O2 in N2, at forced flows from 2 cm/s to 20 cm/s are presented here. This flow range captures flame spread from strictly upstream spread at low flows, to predominantly downstream spread at high flow. Surface temperature profiles are evaluated as a function of time, and temperature gradients for upstream and downstream flame spread are measured. Flame spread rates from IR image data are compared to visible image spread rate data. IR blackbody temperatures are compared to surface thermocouple readings to evaluate the effective emissivity of the pyrolyzing surface. Preheat lengths and pyrolysis lengths are evaluated both upstream and downstream of the central ignition point. A surface energy balance estimates the net heat flux from the flame to the fuel surface along the length of the fuel. Surface radiative loss and gas-phase radiation from soot are measured relative to the net heat feedback from the flame. At high surface heat loss relative to heat feedback, the downstream flame spread does not occur.

  12. Opposed-Flow Flame Spread over Thin Solid Fuels in a Narrow Channel under Different Gravity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xia; Yu, Yong; Wan, Shixin; Wei, Minggang; Hu, Wen-Rui

    Flame spread over solid surface is critical in combustion science due to its importance in fire safety in both ground and manned spacecraft. Eliminating potential fuels from materials is the basic method to protect spacecraft from fire. The criterion of material screening is its flamma-bility [1]. Since gas flow speed has strong effect on flame spread, the combustion behaviors of materials in normal and microgravity will be different due to their different natural convec-tion. To evaluate the flammability of materials used in the manned spacecraft, tests should be performed under microgravity. Nevertheless, the cost is high, so apparatus to simulate mi-crogravity combustion under normal gravity was developed. The narrow channel is such an apparatus in which the buoyant flow is restricted effectively [2, 3]. The experimental results of the horizontal narrow channel are consistent qualitatively with those of Mir Space Station. Quantitatively, there still are obvious differences. However, the effect of the channel size on flame spread has only attracted little attention, in which concurrent-flow flame spread over thin solid in microgravity is numerically studied[4], while the similarity of flame spread in different gravity is still an open question. In addition, the flame spread experiments under microgravity are generally carried out in large wind tunnels without considering the effects of the tunnel size [5]. Actually, the materials are always used in finite space. Therefore, the flammability given by experiments using large wind tunnels will not correctly predict the flammability of materials in the real environment. In the present paper, the effect of the channel size on opposed-flow flame spread over thin solid fuels in both normal and microgravity was investigated and compared. In the horizontal narrow channel, the flame spread rate increased before decreased as forced flow speed increased. In low speed gas flows, flame spread appeared the same trend as that in

  13. Global achievements in soil and water conservation: The case of Conservation Agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Kassam

    2014-03-01

    In 2011, CA had spread over 125 million hectares (9% of the global cropped land across all continents and most agro-ecologies, including small and large farms. In addition, there is a significant area of CA orchards in the Mediterranean countries. CA is now considered to be a practical agro-ecological approach to achieving sustainable agriculture intensification. It offers environmental, economic and social advantages that are not fully possible with tillage-based production systems, as well as improved productivity and resilience, and improved ecosystem services while minimizing the excessive use of agrochemicals, energy and heavy machinery. While there are challenges to the adoption of CA, there is also increasing interest from producers, the civil society, donors and private sector institutions to further promote and service the uptake and spread of CA globally.

  14. Social Distancing Strategies against Disease Spreading

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valdez, L. D.; Buono, C.; Macri, P. A.; Braunstein, L. A.

    2013-12-01

    The recurrent infectious diseases and their increasing impact on the society has promoted the study of strategies to slow down the epidemic spreading. In this review we outline the applications of percolation theory to describe strategies against epidemic spreading on complex networks. We give a general outlook of the relation between link percolation and the susceptible-infected-recovered model, and introduce the node void percolation process to describe the dilution of the network composed by healthy individual, i.e., the network that sustain the functionality of a society. Then, we survey two strategies: the quenched disorder strategy where an heterogeneous distribution of contact intensities is induced in society, and the intermittent social distancing strategy where health individuals are persuaded to avoid contact with their neighbors for intermittent periods of time. Using percolation tools, we show that both strategies may halt the epidemic spreading. Finally, we discuss the role of the transmissibility, i.e., the effective probability to transmit a disease, on the performance of the strategies to slow down the epidemic spreading.

  15. Energy spread in ion beam analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szilagyi, E.

    2000-01-01

    In ion beam analysis (IBA) the depth profiles are extracted from the experimentally determined energy profiles. The spectra, however, are subject to finite energy resolution of both extrinsic and intrinsic origin. Calculation of those effects such as instrumental beam, geometry and detection-related energy and angular spreads as well as energy straggling, multiple scattering and Doppler effects in the sample itself is not trivial, especially since it involves treatment of non-independent random processes. A proper account for energy spread is vital in IBA not only for correct extraction of elemental and isotopic depth profiles from the measured spectra, but already prior to data acquisition, in optimising experimental conditions to reach the required depth resolution at a certain depth. After a short review of the literature on the different energy spread contributions experimental examples are given from resonance, RBS, elastic BS and ERDA practice in which an account for energy spread contributions is essential. Some further examples illustrate extraction of structural information (roughness, pore size, etc.) from elaborated depth resolution calculation for such layer structures

  16. Energy spread in ion beam analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Szilagyi, E. E-mail: szilagyi@rmki.kkfki.hu

    2000-03-01

    In ion beam analysis (IBA) the depth profiles are extracted from the experimentally determined energy profiles. The spectra, however, are subject to finite energy resolution of both extrinsic and intrinsic origin. Calculation of those effects such as instrumental beam, geometry and detection-related energy and angular spreads as well as energy straggling, multiple scattering and Doppler effects in the sample itself is not trivial, especially since it involves treatment of non-independent random processes. A proper account for energy spread is vital in IBA not only for correct extraction of elemental and isotopic depth profiles from the measured spectra, but already prior to data acquisition, in optimising experimental conditions to reach the required depth resolution at a certain depth. After a short review of the literature on the different energy spread contributions experimental examples are given from resonance, RBS, elastic BS and ERDA practice in which an account for energy spread contributions is essential. Some further examples illustrate extraction of structural information (roughness, pore size, etc.) from elaborated depth resolution calculation for such layer structures.

  17. Is globalization healthy: a statistical indicator analysis of the impacts of globalization on health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martens, Pim; Akin, Su-Mia; Maud, Huynen; Mohsin, Raza

    2010-09-17

    It is clear that globalization is something more than a purely economic phenomenon manifesting itself on a global scale. Among the visible manifestations of globalization are the greater international movement of goods and services, financial capital, information and people. In addition, there are technological developments, more transboundary cultural exchanges, facilitated by the freer trade of more differentiated products as well as by tourism and immigration, changes in the political landscape and ecological consequences. In this paper, we link the Maastricht Globalization Index with health indicators to analyse if more globalized countries are doing better in terms of infant mortality rate, under-five mortality rate, and adult mortality rate. The results indicate a positive association between a high level of globalization and low mortality rates. In view of the arguments that globalization provides winners and losers, and might be seen as a disequalizing process, we should perhaps be careful in interpreting the observed positive association as simple evidence that globalization is mostly good for our health. It is our hope that a further analysis of health impacts of globalization may help in adjusting and optimising the process of globalization on every level in the direction of a sustainable and healthy development for all.

  18. Is globalization healthy: a statistical indicator analysis of the impacts of globalization on health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martens Pim

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract It is clear that globalization is something more than a purely economic phenomenon manifesting itself on a global scale. Among the visible manifestations of globalization are the greater international movement of goods and services, financial capital, information and people. In addition, there are technological developments, more transboundary cultural exchanges, facilitated by the freer trade of more differentiated products as well as by tourism and immigration, changes in the political landscape and ecological consequences. In this paper, we link the Maastricht Globalization Index with health indicators to analyse if more globalized countries are doing better in terms of infant mortality rate, under-five mortality rate, and adult mortality rate. The results indicate a positive association between a high level of globalization and low mortality rates. In view of the arguments that globalization provides winners and losers, and might be seen as a disequalizing process, we should perhaps be careful in interpreting the observed positive association as simple evidence that globalization is mostly good for our health. It is our hope that a further analysis of health impacts of globalization may help in adjusting and optimising the process of globalization on every level in the direction of a sustainable and healthy development for all.

  19. A Global Computing Grid for LHC; Una red global de computacion para LHC

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hernandez Calama, J. M.; Colino Arriero, N.

    2013-06-01

    An innovative computing infrastructure has played an instrumental role in the recent discovery of the Higgs boson in the LHC and has enabled scientists all over the world to store, process and analyze enormous amounts of data in record time. The Grid computing technology has made it possible to integrate computing center resources spread around the planet, including the CIEMAT, into a distributed system where these resources can be shared and accessed via Internet on a transparent, uniform basis. A global supercomputer for the LHC experiments. (Author)

  20. Epidemic spreading in a hierarchical social network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grabowski, A; Kosiński, R A

    2004-09-01

    A model of epidemic spreading in a population with a hierarchical structure of interpersonal interactions is described and investigated numerically. The structure of interpersonal connections is based on a scale-free network. Spatial localization of individuals belonging to different social groups, and the mobility of a contemporary community, as well as the effectiveness of different interpersonal interactions, are taken into account. Typical relations characterizing the spreading process, like a range of epidemic and epidemic curves, are discussed. The influence of preventive vaccinations on the spreading process is investigated. The critical value of preventively vaccinated individuals that is sufficient for the suppression of an epidemic is calculated. Our results are compared with solutions of the master equation for the spreading process and good agreement of the character of this process is found.

  1. The burden of non-communicable diseases in Nigeria; in the context of globalization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maiyaki, Musa Baba; Garbati, Musa Abubakar

    2014-01-01

    This paper highlights the tenets of globalization and how its elements have spread to sub-Saharan Africa, and Nigeria in particular. It assesses the growing burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in Nigeria and its relationship with globalization. It further describes the conceptual framework on which to view the impact of globalization on NCDs in Nigeria. It assesses the Nigerian dimension of the relationship between the risk factors of NCDs and globalization. Appropriate recommendations on tackling the burden of NCDs in Nigeria based on cost-effective, culturally sensitive, and evidence-based interventions are highlighted.

  2. A stakeholder-driven agenda for advancing the science and practice of scale-up and spread in health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norton, Wynne E; McCannon, C Joseph; Schall, Marie W; Mittman, Brian S

    2012-12-06

    Although significant advances have been made in implementation science, comparatively less attention has been paid to broader scale-up and spread of effective health programs at the regional, national, or international level. To address this gap in research, practice and policy attention, representatives from key stakeholder groups launched an initiative to identify gaps and stimulate additional interest and activity in scale-up and spread of effective health programs. We describe the background and motivation for this initiative and the content, process, and outcomes of two main phases comprising the core of the initiative: a state-of-the-art conference to develop recommendations for advancing scale-up and spread and a follow-up activity to operationalize and prioritize the recommendations. The conference was held in Washington, D.C. during July 2010 and attended by 100 representatives from research, practice, policy, public health, healthcare, and international health communities; the follow-up activity was conducted remotely the following year. Conference attendees identified and prioritized five recommendations (and corresponding sub-recommendations) for advancing scale-up and spread in health: increase awareness, facilitate information exchange, develop new methods, apply new approaches for evaluation, and expand capacity. In the follow-up activity, 'develop new methods' was rated as most important recommendation; expanding capacity was rated as least important, although differences were relatively minor. Based on the results of these efforts, we discuss priority activities that are needed to advance research, practice and policy to accelerate the scale-up and spread of effective health programs.

  3. Effects of multiple spreaders in community networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Zhao-Long; Ren, Zhuo-Ming; Yang, Guang-Yong; Liu, Jian-Guo

    2014-12-01

    Human contact networks exhibit the community structure. Understanding how such community structure affects the epidemic spreading could provide insights for preventing the spreading of epidemics between communities. In this paper, we explore the spreading of multiple spreaders in community networks. A network based on the clustering preferential mechanism is evolved, whose communities are detected by the Girvan-Newman (GN) algorithm. We investigate the spreading effectiveness by selecting the nodes as spreaders in the following ways: nodes with the largest degree in each community (community hubs), the same number of nodes with the largest degree from the global network (global large-degree) and randomly selected one node within each community (community random). The experimental results on the SIR model show that the spreading effectiveness based on the global large-degree and community hubs methods is the same in the early stage of the infection and the method of community random is the worst. However, when the infection rate exceeds the critical value, the global large-degree method embodies the worst spreading effectiveness. Furthermore, the discrepancy of effectiveness for the three methods will decrease as the infection rate increases. Therefore, we should immunize the hubs in each community rather than those hubs in the global network to prevent the outbreak of epidemics.

  4. A Globally Stable Lyapunov Pointing and Rate Controller for the Magnetospheric MultiScale Mission (MMS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, Neerav

    2011-01-01

    The Magnetospheric MultiScale Mission (MMS) is scheduled to launch in late 2014. Its primary goal is to discover the fundamental plasma physics processes of reconnection in the Earth's magnetosphere. Each of the four MMS spacecraft is spin-stabilized at a nominal rate of 3 RPM. Traditional spin-stabilized spacecraft have used a number of separate modes to control nutation, spin rate, and precession. To reduce the number of modes and simplify operations, the Delta-H control mode is designed to accomplish nutation control, spin rate control, and precession control simultaneously. A nonlinear design technique, Lyapunov's method, is used to design the Delta-H control mode. A global spin rate controller selected as the baseline controller for MMS, proved to be insufficient due to an ambiguity in the attitude. Lyapunov's design method was used to solve this ambiguity, resulting in a controller that meets the design goals. Simulation results show the advantage of the pointing and rate controller for maneuvers larger than 90 deg and provide insight into the performance of this controller.

  5. Gasification of the southern spread of Bolivia-Brazil gas pipeline

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frisoli, Caetano; Senna, Ferando Jose Ennes de; Faria, Jose Aurelio Carvalho de

    2000-01-01

    As to the commissioning of the Northern spread, Inert Direct Purging was also adopted for purging the Southern Spread of Bolivia-Brazil Gas Pipeline. This section is 1191 km long and lies between the city of Paulinia in the State of Sao Paulo up to Canoas in the Sate of Rio Grande do Sul. The Inert Direct Purging is based on the principle of high gas injection flow rates at the initial point and the purging of air at the other end, separated by a nitrogen plug. A purging model, developed by The Gas Research Institute, was used in conjunction with the software Pipeline Studio for planning purposes. The arrival of gas at each valve and the size of gas/nitrogen/air interfaces were also recorded. Graphs and tables compare calculated and recorded data. Final results demonstrated model accuracy and its suitable applicability for purging, as well as the Inert Direct Purging method for gas pipelines of extensive lengths. (author)

  6. The Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) and its impacts on the Indian Ocean during the global warming slowdown period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makarim, S.; Liu, Z.; Yu, W.; Yan, X.; Sprintall, J.

    2016-12-01

    The global warming slowdown indicated by a slower warming rate at the surface layer accompanied by stronger heat transport into the deeper layers has been explored in the Indian Ocean. Although the mechanisms of the global warming slowdown are still under warm debate, some clues have been recognized that decadal La Nina like-pattern induced decadal cooling in the Pacific Ocean and generated an increase of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) transport in 2004-2010. However, how the ITF spreading to the interior of the Indian Ocean and the impact of ITF changes on the Indian Ocean, in particular its water mass transformation and current system are still unknown. To this end, we analyzed thermohaline structure and current system at different depths in the Indian Ocean both during and just before the global warming slowdown period using the ORAS4 and ARGO dataset. Here, we found the new edge of ITF at off Sumatra presumably as northward deflection of ITF Lombok Strait, and The Monsoon Onset Monitoring and Social Ecology Impact (MOMSEI) and Java Upwelling Variation Observation (JUVO) dataset confirmed this evident. An isopycnal mixing method initially proposed by Du et al. (2013) is adopted to quantify the spreading of ITF water in the Indian Ocean, and therefore the impacts of ITF changes on the variation of the Agulhas Current, Leuween Current, Bay of Bengal Water. This study also prevailed the fresher salinity in the Indian Ocean during the slowdown warming period were not only contributed by stronger transport of the ITF, but also by freshening Arabian Sea and infiltrating Antartic Intermediate Water (AAIW).

  7. Global warming and mycoflora in the Baltic Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hanns Kreisel

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The author discusses possible effects of global warming on distribution and ecology of larger fungi, and presents examples of suggested indicator species which apparently are spreading from south to north. Only Basidiomycetes are corncerned, while actually no case of non-lichenized Ascomycetes is known. A continued monitoring of the mentioned species is recommended.

  8. Assimilative and non-assimilative color spreading in the watercolor configuration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eiji eKimura

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available A colored line flanking a darker contour will appear to spread its color onto an area enclosed by the line (watercolor effect. The watercolor effect has been characterized as an assimilative effect, but non-assimilative color spreading has also been demonstrated in the same spatial configuration; e.g., when a black inner contour (IC is paired with a blue outer contour (OC, yellow color spreading can be observed. To elucidate visual mechanisms underlying these different color spreading effects, this study investigated the effects of luminance ratio between the double contours on the induced color by systematically manipulating the IC and OC luminances (Experiment 1 as well as the background luminance (Experiment 2. The results showed that the luminance conditions suitable for assimilative and non-assimilative color spreading were nearly opposite. When the Weber contrast of the IC to the background luminances (IC contrast was smaller than that of the OC (OC contrast, the induced color became similar to the IC color (assimilative spreading. In contrast, when the OC contrast was smaller than or equal to the IC contrast, the induced color became yellow (non-assimilative spreading. Extending these findings, Experiment 3 showed that bilateral color spreading, e.g., assimilative spreading on one side and non-assimilative spreading on the other side, can also be observed in the watercolor configuration. These results suggest that the assimilative and non-assimilative spreading were mediated by different visual mechanisms. The properties of the assimilative spreading are consistent with the model proposed to account for neon color spreading [Grossberg, S. & Mingolla, E. (1985 Percept. Psychophys., 38, 141-171] and extended for the watercolor effect [Pinna, B., & Grossberg, S. (2005 J. Opt. Soc. Am. A, 22, 2207-2221]. However, the present results suggest that additional mechanisms are needed to account for the non-assimilative color spreading.

  9. Assimilative and non-assimilative color spreading in the watercolor configuration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimura, Eiji; Kuroki, Mikako

    2014-01-01

    A colored line flanking a darker contour will appear to spread its color onto an area enclosed by the line (watercolor effect). The watercolor effect has been characterized as an assimilative effect, but non-assimilative color spreading has also been demonstrated in the same spatial configuration; e.g., when a black inner contour (IC) is paired with a blue outer contour (OC), yellow color spreading can be observed. To elucidate visual mechanisms underlying these different color spreading effects, this study investigated the effects of luminance ratio between the double contours on the induced color by systematically manipulating the IC and the OC luminance (Experiment 1) as well as the background luminance (Experiment 2). The results showed that the luminance conditions suitable for assimilative and non-assimilative color spreading were nearly opposite. When the Weber contrast of the IC to the background luminance (IC contrast) was smaller in size than that of the OC (OC contrast), the induced color became similar to the IC color (assimilative spreading). In contrast, when the OC contrast was smaller than or equal to the IC contrast, the induced color became yellow (non-assimilative spreading). Extending these findings, Experiment 3 showed that bilateral color spreading, i.e., assimilative spreading on one side and non-assimilative spreading on the other side, can also be observed in the watercolor configuration. These results suggest that the assimilative and the non-assimilative spreading were mediated by different visual mechanisms. The properties of the assimilative spreading are consistent with the model proposed to account for neon color spreading (Grossberg and Mingolla, 1985) and extended for the watercolor effect (Pinna and Grossberg, 2005). However, the present results suggest that additional mechanisms are needed to account for the non-assimilative color spreading.

  10. The role of international travel in the worldwide spread of multiresistant Enterobacteriaceae.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Bij, Akke K; Pitout, Johann D D

    2012-09-01

    From international tourists to war-displaced refugees, more people are on the move than ever before. This provides the opportunity for a variety of antimicrobial-resistant bacteria to be carried from one geographic location to another. The Enterobacteriaceae are among the most important causes of serious hospital-acquired and community-onset bacterial infections in humans, and resistance to antimicrobial agents in these bacteria has become an increasingly relevant problem. International travel and tourism are important modes for the acquisition and spread of antimicrobial-resistant Enterobacteriaceae, especially CTX-M-producing Escherichia coli. Infections with KPC-, VIM-, OXA-48- and NDM-producing Enterobacteriaceae in developed countries have been associated with visiting and being hospitalized in endemic areas such as the USA, Greece and Israel for KPCs, Greece for VIMs, Turkey for OXA-48, and the Indian subcontinent for NDMs. To combat the spread of antimicrobial-resistant Enterobacteriaceae, the French Healthcare Safety Advisory Committee recently issued national recommendations for screening and contact isolation precautions for patients transferred from, or hospitalized outside, France. For effective public and patient health interventions, it is important to understand the role of international travel in the spread of antimicrobial-resistant Enterobacteriaceae. We urgently need well-designed studies to evaluate the transmission potential and risks for colonization and infections due to multiresistant Enterobacteriaceae in travellers who have recently visited or have been hospitalized in endemic areas. The emergence of CTX-M-, KPC- and NDM-producing bacteria is a good example of the role that globalization plays in the rapid dissemination of new antibiotic resistance mechanisms.

  11. Spread-F occurrences and relationships with foF2 and h'F at low- and mid-latitudes in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ning; Guo, Lixin; Zhao, Zhenwei; Ding, Zonghua; Lin, Leke

    2018-04-01

    Ionospheric irregularities are an important phenomenon in scientific studies and applications of radio-wave propagation. Spread-F echoes in ionograms are a type of high-frequency band irregularities that include frequency spread-F (FSF), range spread-F (RSF), and mixed spread-F (MSF) events. In this study, we obtained spread-F data from four ionosondes at low- and mid-latitudes near the 120°E chain in China during the 23rd solar cycle. We used these data to investigate spread-F occurrence percentages and variations with local time, season, latitude, and solar activity. The four ionosondes were located at Haikou (HK) (20°N, 110.34°E), Guangzhou (GZ) (23.14°N, 113.36°E), Beijing (BJ) (40.11°N, 116.28°E), and Changchun (CC) (43.84°N, 125.28°E). We also present possible correlations between spread-Fs and other ionospheric parameters, such as the critical frequency of the F2-layer (foF2) and the virtual height of the bottom-side F-layer (h'F). In particular, we investigated the possible threshold of the foF2 affecting the FSF and the relationship between the h'F and the RSF. The main conclusions are as follows: (a) the FSF occurrence percentages were anti-correlated with solar activity at all four sites; meanwhile, RSF occurrence rates increased with the increase in solar activity at HK, but not at the other three sites; (b) FSF occurrence rates were larger at the mid-latitudes than expected, while FSFs occurred more often after midnight; (c) the highest FSF occurrence rates mostly appeared during the summer months, while RSFs occurred mostly in the equinoctial months of 2000-2002 at HK and GZ; (d) a lower foF2 was suitable for FSF events; nevertheless, h'F and RSF occurrences satisfied the parabolic relationship; (e) the foF2 thresholds for FSFs were 15, 14, 7.6, and 7.8 MHz at HK, GZ, BJ, and CC, respectively. The h'Fs occurring between 240 and 290 km were more favorable for RSF occurrences. These results are important for understanding ionospheric

  12. Global warming causes sinkhole collapse – Case study in Florida, USA

    OpenAIRE

    Meng, Yan; Jia, Long

    2018-01-01

    The occurrence frequency and intensity of many natural geohazards, such as landslides, debris flows and earthquakes, have increased in response to global warming. However, the effects of such on development and spread of sinkholes has been largely overlooked. Most research shows that water pumping and related drawdown is the most important factor in sinkhole development, but in this paper evidence is presented which highlights the role played by global warming in causing sinkholes. The state ...

  13. Sociodemographic, disease status, and illness perceptions predictors of global self-ratings of health and quality of life among those with coronary heart disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aalto, Anna-Mari; Aro, Arja R; Weinman, John

    2006-01-01

    This one-year follow-up study (n = 130 at baseline, n =2745 at follow-up, aged 45-74 years) examined the relationship of patients' perceptions of coronary heart disease (CHD) and illness-related factors with global health status and global quality of life (QOL) ratings. The independent variables...... were CHD history (myocardial infarction, revascularisation), CHD severity (use of nitrates, CHD risk factors and co-morbidities) and illness perceptions. In multivariate regression analysis, CHD history and severity explained 13% of variance in global health status and 8% in global QOL ratings...... at the baseline. Illness perceptions increased the share of explained variance by 18% and 16% respectively. In the follow-up, illness perceptions explained a significant but modest share of variance in change in health status and QOL when baseline health status and QOL and CHD severity were adjusted for more...

  14. 3-D Simulation of Tectonic Evolution in Mariana with a Coupled Model of Plate Subduction and Back-Arc Spreading

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashima, A.; Matsu'Ura, M.

    2006-12-01

    We obtained the expressions for internal deformation fields due to a moment tensor in an elastic-viscoelastic layered holf-space. This unified formulation of internal deformation fields for shear faulting and crack opening enabled us to deal with the problem of tectonic deformation at a composite type of plate boundary zones. The tectonic deformation can be ascribed to mechanical interaction at plate boundaries, which make a closed circuit with the mode of relative plate motion changing from divergence to convergence through transcurrent motion. One of the rational ways to represent mechanical interaction at plate boundaries is specifying the increase rates of normal or tangential displacement discontinuity across plate interfaces. On the basis of such a basic idea we developed a 3-D simulation model for the nonlinear, coupled system of plate subduction and back-arc spreading in Mariana. Through numerical simulations we revealed the evolution process of back-arc spreading. At the first stage, steady plate subduction (shear faulting at a plate interface) gradually forms tensile stress fields in the back-arc region of the overriding plate. When the accumulated tensile stress reaches a critical level, back-arc spreading (crack opening) starts at a structurally weak portion of the overriding plate. The horizontal motion of the frontal part of the overriding plate due to back-arc spreading pushes out the plate boundary toward the oceanic plate. In steady-state plate subduction the shear stress acting on a plate interface must balance with the maximum frictional resistance (shear strength) of the plate interface. Therefore, the increase of shear stress at the plate interface leads to the increase of slip rate at the plate interface. The local increase of slip rate at the plate interface produces the additional tensile stress in the back-arc region. The increased tensile stress must be canceled out by the additional crack opening. Such a feedback mechanism between plate

  15. Lexical Ambiguity: Making a Case against Spread

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, Jennifer J.; Rogness, Neal T.; Fisher, Diane G.

    2012-01-01

    We argue for decreasing the use of the word "spread" when describing the statistical idea of dispersion or variability in introductory statistics courses. In addition, we argue for increasing the use of the word "variability" as a replacement for "spread."

  16. A review of recent results on spread F theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ossakow, S.L.

    1979-01-01

    Ionospheric Spread F was discovered some four decades ago. Yet only in the past few years has significant progress been made in the theoretical explanation of such phenomena. In particular, considerable effort has been expended to explain equatorial Spread F and the attendant satellite signal propagation scintillation phenomena. The present review dwells mainly in this low latitude area. The various linear plasma instabilities thought to initiate equatorial Spread F are discussed. Recent theoretical and numerical simulation studies of the nonlinear evolution of the collisional Rayleigh-Taylor instability in equatorial Spread F are reviewed. Also, analytical studies of rising equatorial Spread F bubbles in the collisional and collisionless Rayleigh-Taylor regime are discussed, as well as the nohlinear saturation of instabilities in these two regimes. Current theories on very small scale (< approx 10 meters) size irregularities observed by radar backscatter during equatorial Spread F and their relation to the larger wavelength scintillation causing irregularities are discussed. Application of turbulence theory to equatorial Spread F phenomena is reviewed. Remaining problems to be dealt with at equatorial latitudes are summarized. (Auth.)

  17. Spread of Zika virus in the Americas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qian; Sun, Kaiyuan; Chinazzi, Matteo; Pastore Y Piontti, Ana; Dean, Natalie E; Rojas, Diana Patricia; Merler, Stefano; Mistry, Dina; Poletti, Piero; Rossi, Luca; Bray, Margaret; Halloran, M Elizabeth; Longini, Ira M; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2017-05-30

    We use a data-driven global stochastic epidemic model to analyze the spread of the Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Americas. The model has high spatial and temporal resolution and integrates real-world demographic, human mobility, socioeconomic, temperature, and vector density data. We estimate that the first introduction of ZIKV to Brazil likely occurred between August 2013 and April 2014 (90% credible interval). We provide simulated epidemic profiles of incident ZIKV infections for several countries in the Americas through February 2017. The ZIKV epidemic is characterized by slow growth and high spatial and seasonal heterogeneity, attributable to the dynamics of the mosquito vector and to the characteristics and mobility of the human populations. We project the expected timing and number of pregnancies infected with ZIKV during the first trimester and provide estimates of microcephaly cases assuming different levels of risk as reported in empirical retrospective studies. Our approach represents a modeling effort aimed at understanding the potential magnitude and timing of the ZIKV epidemic and it can be potentially used as a template for the analysis of future mosquito-borne epidemics.

  18. Epidemic spread over networks with agent awareness and social distancing

    KAUST Repository

    Paarporn, Keith

    2016-04-20

    We study an SIS epidemic model over an arbitrary connected network topology when the agents receive personalized information about the current epidemic state. The agents utilize their available information to either reduce interactions with their neighbors (social distancing) when they believe the epidemic is currently prevalent or resume normal interactions when they believe there is low risk of becoming infected. The information is a weighted combination of three sources: 1) the average states of nodes in contact neighborhoods 2) the average states of nodes in an information network 3) a global broadcast of the average epidemic state of the network. A 2n-state Markov Chain is first considered to model the disease dynamics with awareness, from which a mean-field discrete-time n-state dynamical system is derived, where each state corresponds to an agent\\'s probability of being infected. The nonlinear model is a lower bound of its linearized version about the origin. Hence, global stability of the origin (the diseasefree equilibrium) in the linear model implies global stability in the nonlinear model. When the origin is not stable, we show the existence of a nontrivial fixed point in the awareness model, which obeys a strict partial order in relation to the nontrivial fixed point of the dynamics without distancing. In simulations, we define two performance metrics to understand the effectiveness agent awareness has in reducing the spread of an epidemic. © 2015 IEEE.

  19. Uptake of phosphorus from surfactant solutions by wheat leaves: spreading kinetics, wetted area, and drying time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peirce, Courtney A E; Priest, Craig; McBeath, Therese M; McLaughlin, Mike J

    2016-01-07

    The delivery and uptake of nutrients at the surface of plant leaves is an important physicochemical phenomenon that depends on leaf surface morphology and chemistry, fertilizer formulation chemistry (including adjuvant and associated surfactants), wetting dynamics, and many other physical, chemical and biological factors. In this study, the role of spreading dynamics in determining uptake of the macronutrient phosphorus from phosphoric acid fertilizer solution in combination with three different adjuvants was measured in the absence of droplet run-off and splashing. When run-off and splashing losses were zero, spreading and drying rates had a small to negligible effect on the uptake efficiency. The results suggest that uptake may be much less sensitive to the specific choice of adjuvant and long time-scale spreading behaviour than one might intuitively expect.

  20. Modelling dengue epidemic spreading with human mobility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barmak, D. H.; Dorso, C. O.; Otero, M.

    2016-04-01

    We explored the effect of human mobility on the spatio-temporal dynamics of Dengue with a stochastic model that takes into account the epidemiological dynamics of the infected mosquitoes and humans, with different mobility patterns of the human population. We observed that human mobility strongly affects the spread of infection by increasing the final size and by changing the morphology of the epidemic outbreaks. When the spreading of the disease is driven only by mosquito dispersal (flight), a main central focus expands diffusively. On the contrary, when human mobility is taken into account, multiple foci appear throughout the evolution of the outbreaks. These secondary foci generated throughout the outbreaks could be of little importance according to their mass or size compared with the largest main focus. However, the coalescence of these foci with the main one generates an effect, through which the latter develops a size greater than the one obtained in the case driven only by mosquito dispersal. This increase in growth rate due to human mobility and the coalescence of the foci are particularly relevant in temperate cities such as the city of Buenos Aires, since they give more possibilities to the outbreak to grow before the arrival of the low-temperature season. The findings of this work indicate that human mobility could be the main driving force in the dynamics of vector epidemics.