Social contact patterns relevant to the spread of respiratory infectious diseases in Hong Kong.

Science.gov (United States)

Leung, Kathy; Jit, Mark; Lau, Eric H Y; Wu, Joseph T

2017-08-11

The spread of many respiratory infections is determined by contact patterns between infectious and susceptible individuals in the population. There are no published data for quantifying social contact patterns relevant to the spread of respiratory infectious diseases in Hong Kong which is a hotspot for emerging infectious diseases due to its high population density and connectivity in the air transportation network. We adopted a commonly used diary-based design to conduct a social contact survey in Hong Kong in 2015/16 using both paper and online questionnaires. Participants using paper questionnaires reported more contacts and longer contact duration than those using online questionnaires. Participants reported 13 person-hours of contact and 8 contacts per day on average, which decreased over age but increased with household size, years of education and income level. Prolonged and frequent contacts, and contacts at home, school and work were more likely to involve physical contacts. Strong age-assortativity was observed in all age groups. We evaluated the characteristics of social contact patterns relevant to the spread of respiratory infectious diseases in Hong Kong. Our findings could help to improve the design of future social contact surveys, parameterize transmission models of respiratory infectious diseases, and inform intervention strategies based on model outputs.

Evolutionary history and global spread of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis Beijing lineage.

OpenAIRE

Merker Matthias; Blin Camille; Mona Stefano; Duforet-Frebourg Nicolas; Lecher Sophie; Willery Eve; Blum Michael G B; Rüsch-Gerdes Sabine; Mokrousov Igor; Aleksic Eman; Allix-Béguec Caroline; Antierens Annick; Augustynowicz-Kopec Ewa; Ballif Marie; Barletta Francesca

2015-01-01

International audience; Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains of the Beijing lineage are globally distributed and are associated with the massive spread of multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis in Eurasia. Here we reconstructed the biogeographical structure and evolutionary history of this lineage by genetic analysis of 4,987 isolates from 99 countries and whole-genome sequencing of 110 representative isolates. We show that this lineage initially originated in the Far East, from where it radiat...

A metric of influential spreading during contagion dynamics through the air transportation network.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christos Nicolaides

Full Text Available The spread of infectious diseases at the global scale is mediated by long-range human travel. Our ability to predict the impact of an outbreak on human health requires understanding the spatiotemporal signature of early-time spreading from a specific location. Here, we show that network topology, geography, traffic structure and individual mobility patterns are all essential for accurate predictions of disease spreading. Specifically, we study contagion dynamics through the air transportation network by means of a stochastic agent-tracking model that accounts for the spatial distribution of airports, detailed air traffic and the correlated nature of mobility patterns and waiting-time distributions of individual agents. From the simulation results and the empirical air-travel data, we formulate a metric of influential spreading--the geographic spreading centrality--which accounts for spatial organization and the hierarchical structure of the network traffic, and provides an accurate measure of the early-time spreading power of individual nodes.

A numerical study of three-dimensional droplets spreading on chemically patterned surfaces

KAUST Repository

Zhong, Hua

2016-09-26

We study numerically the three-dimensional droplets spreading on physically flat chemically patterned surfaces with periodic squares separated by channels. Our model consists of the Navier-Stokes-Cahn-Hilliard equations with the generalized Navier boundary conditions. Stick-slip behavior and con-tact angle hysteresis are observed. Moreover, we also study the relationship between the effective advancing/receding angle and the two intrinsic angles of the surface patterns. By increasing the volume of droplet gradually, we find that the advancing contact line tends gradually to an equiangular octagon with the length ratio of the two adjacent sides equal to a fixed value that depends on the geometry of the pattern.

Epidemic spreading and global stability of an SIS model with an infective vector on complex networks

Science.gov (United States)

Kang, Huiyan; Fu, Xinchu

2015-10-01

In this paper, we present a new SIS model with delay on scale-free networks. The model is suitable to describe some epidemics which are not only transmitted by a vector but also spread between individuals by direct contacts. In view of the biological relevance and real spreading process, we introduce a delay to denote average incubation period of disease in a vector. By mathematical analysis, we obtain the epidemic threshold and prove the global stability of equilibria. The simulation shows the delay will effect the epidemic spreading. Finally, we investigate and compare two major immunization strategies, uniform immunization and targeted immunization.

Evolutionary history and global spread of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis Beijing lineage.

Science.gov (United States)

Merker, Matthias; Blin, Camille; Mona, Stefano; Duforet-Frebourg, Nicolas; Lecher, Sophie; Willery, Eve; Blum, Michael G B; Rüsch-Gerdes, Sabine; Mokrousov, Igor; Aleksic, Eman; Allix-Béguec, Caroline; Antierens, Annick; Augustynowicz-Kopeć, Ewa; Ballif, Marie; Barletta, Francesca; Beck, Hans Peter; Barry, Clifton E; Bonnet, Maryline; Borroni, Emanuele; Campos-Herrero, Isolina; Cirillo, Daniela; Cox, Helen; Crowe, Suzanne; Crudu, Valeriu; Diel, Roland; Drobniewski, Francis; Fauville-Dufaux, Maryse; Gagneux, Sébastien; Ghebremichael, Solomon; Hanekom, Madeleine; Hoffner, Sven; Jiao, Wei-wei; Kalon, Stobdan; Kohl, Thomas A; Kontsevaya, Irina; Lillebæk, Troels; Maeda, Shinji; Nikolayevskyy, Vladyslav; Rasmussen, Michael; Rastogi, Nalin; Samper, Sofia; Sanchez-Padilla, Elisabeth; Savic, Branislava; Shamputa, Isdore Chola; Shen, Adong; Sng, Li-Hwei; Stakenas, Petras; Toit, Kadri; Varaine, Francis; Vukovic, Dragana; Wahl, Céline; Warren, Robin; Supply, Philip; Niemann, Stefan; Wirth, Thierry

2015-03-01

Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains of the Beijing lineage are globally distributed and are associated with the massive spread of multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis in Eurasia. Here we reconstructed the biogeographical structure and evolutionary history of this lineage by genetic analysis of 4,987 isolates from 99 countries and whole-genome sequencing of 110 representative isolates. We show that this lineage initially originated in the Far East, from where it radiated worldwide in several waves. We detected successive increases in population size for this pathogen over the last 200 years, practically coinciding with the Industrial Revolution, the First World War and HIV epidemics. Two MDR clones of this lineage started to spread throughout central Asia and Russia concomitantly with the collapse of the public health system in the former Soviet Union. Mutations identified in genes putatively under positive selection and associated with virulence might have favored the expansion of the most successful branches of the lineage.

Lattice model for influenza spreading with spontaneous behavioral changes.

Science.gov (United States)

Fierro, Annalisa; Liccardo, Antonella

2013-01-01

Individual behavioral response to the spreading of an epidemic plays a crucial role in the progression of the epidemic itself. The risk perception induces individuals to adopt a protective behavior, as for instance reducing their social contacts, adopting more restrictive hygienic measures or undergoing prophylaxis procedures. In this paper, starting with a previously developed lattice-gas SIR model, we construct a coupled behavior-disease model for influenza spreading with spontaneous behavioral changes. The focus is on self-initiated behavioral changes that alter the susceptibility to the disease, without altering the contact patterns among individuals. Three different mechanisms of awareness spreading are analyzed: the local spreading due to the presence in the neighborhood of infective individuals; the global spreading due to the news published by the mass media and to educational campaigns implemented at institutional level; the local spreading occurring through the "thought contagion" among aware and unaware individuals. The peculiarity of the present approach is that the awareness spreading model is calibrated on available data on awareness and concern of the population about the risk of contagion. In particular, the model is validated against the A(H1N1) epidemic outbreak in Italy during the 2009/2010 season, by making use of the awareness data gathered by the behavioral risk factor surveillance system (PASSI). We find that, increasing the accordance between the simulated awareness spreading and the PASSI data on risk perception, the agreement between simulated and experimental epidemiological data improves as well. Furthermore, we show that, within our model, the primary mechanism to reproduce a realistic evolution of the awareness during an epidemic, is the one due to globally available information. This result highlights how crucial is the role of mass media and educational campaigns in influencing the epidemic spreading of infectious diseases.

Lattice model for influenza spreading with spontaneous behavioral changes.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Annalisa Fierro

Full Text Available Individual behavioral response to the spreading of an epidemic plays a crucial role in the progression of the epidemic itself. The risk perception induces individuals to adopt a protective behavior, as for instance reducing their social contacts, adopting more restrictive hygienic measures or undergoing prophylaxis procedures. In this paper, starting with a previously developed lattice-gas SIR model, we construct a coupled behavior-disease model for influenza spreading with spontaneous behavioral changes. The focus is on self-initiated behavioral changes that alter the susceptibility to the disease, without altering the contact patterns among individuals. Three different mechanisms of awareness spreading are analyzed: the local spreading due to the presence in the neighborhood of infective individuals; the global spreading due to the news published by the mass media and to educational campaigns implemented at institutional level; the local spreading occurring through the "thought contagion" among aware and unaware individuals. The peculiarity of the present approach is that the awareness spreading model is calibrated on available data on awareness and concern of the population about the risk of contagion. In particular, the model is validated against the A(H1N1 epidemic outbreak in Italy during the 2009/2010 season, by making use of the awareness data gathered by the behavioral risk factor surveillance system (PASSI. We find that, increasing the accordance between the simulated awareness spreading and the PASSI data on risk perception, the agreement between simulated and experimental epidemiological data improves as well. Furthermore, we show that, within our model, the primary mechanism to reproduce a realistic evolution of the awareness during an epidemic, is the one due to globally available information. This result highlights how crucial is the role of mass media and educational campaigns in influencing the epidemic spreading of infectious

Collective behavior in the spatial spreading of obesity

Science.gov (United States)

Gallos, Lazaros K.; Barttfeld, Pablo; Havlin, Shlomo; Sigman, Mariano; Makse, Hernán A.

2012-06-01

Obesity prevalence is increasing in many countries at alarming levels. A difficulty in the conception of policies to reverse these trends is the identification of the drivers behind the obesity epidemics. Here, we implement a spatial spreading analysis to investigate whether obesity shows spatial correlations, revealing the effect of collective and global factors acting above individual choices. We find a regularity in the spatial fluctuations of their prevalence revealed by a pattern of scale-free long-range correlations. The fluctuations are anomalous, deviating in a fundamental way from the weaker correlations found in the underlying population distribution indicating the presence of collective behavior, i.e., individual habits may have negligible influence in shaping the patterns of spreading. Interestingly, we find the same scale-free correlations in economic activities associated with food production. These results motivate future interventions to investigate the causality of this relation providing guidance for the implementation of preventive health policies.

Optimizing Hybrid Spreading in Metapopulations.

OpenAIRE

Zhang, C.; Zhou, S.; Miller, J. C.; Cox, I. J.; Chain, B. M.

2015-01-01

Epidemic spreading phenomena are ubiquitous in nature and society. Examples include the spreading of diseases, information, and computer viruses. Epidemics can spread by local spreading, where infected nodes can only infect a limited set of direct target nodes and global spreading, where an infected node can infect every other node. In reality, many epidemics spread using a hybrid mixture of both types of spreading. In this study we develop a theoretical framework for studying hybrid epidemic...

Optimizing Hybrid Spreading in Metapopulations

OpenAIRE

Zhang, Changwang; Zhou, Shi; Miller, Joel C.; Cox, Ingemar J.; Chain, Benjamin M.

2014-01-01

Epidemic spreading phenomena are ubiquitous in nature and society. Examples include the spreading of diseases, information, and computer viruses. Epidemics can spread by local spreading, where infected nodes can only infect a limited set of direct target nodes and global spreading, where an infected node can infect every other node. In reality, many epidemics spread using a hybrid mixture of both types of spreading. In this study we develop a theoretical framework for studying hybrid epidemic...

Cooperative spreading processes in multiplex networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Wei, Xiang; Chen, Shihua; Wu, Xiaoqun; Ning, Di; Lu, Jun-An

2016-06-01

This study is concerned with the dynamic behaviors of epidemic spreading in multiplex networks. A model composed of two interacting complex networks is proposed to describe cooperative spreading processes, wherein the virus spreading in one layer can penetrate into the other to promote the spreading process. The global epidemic threshold of the model is smaller than the epidemic thresholds of the corresponding isolated networks. Thus, global epidemic onset arises in the interacting networks even though an epidemic onset does not arise in each isolated network. Simulations verify the analysis results and indicate that cooperative spreading processes in multiplex networks enhance the final infection fraction.

Identification of global oil trade patterns: An empirical research based on complex network theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ji, Qiang; Zhang, Hai-Ying; Fan, Ying

2014-01-01

Highlights: • A global oil trade core network is analyzed using complex network theory. • The global oil export core network displays a scale-free behaviour. • The current global oil trade network can be divided into three trading blocs. • The global oil trade network presents a ‘robust and yet fragile’ characteristic. - Abstract: The Global oil trade pattern becomes increasingly complex, which has become one of the most important factors affecting every country’s energy strategy and economic development. In this paper, a global oil trade core network is constructed to analyze the overall features, regional characteristics and stability of the oil trade using complex network theory. The results indicate that the global oil export core network displays a scale-free behaviour, in which the trade position of nodes presents obvious heterogeneity and the ‘hub nodes’ play a ‘bridge’ role in the formation process of the trade network. The current global oil trade network can be divided into three trading blocs, including the ‘South America-West Africa-North America’ trading bloc, the ‘Middle East–Asian–Pacific region’ trading bloc, and ‘the former Soviet Union–North Africa–Europe’ trading bloc. Geopolitics and diplomatic relations are the two main reasons for this regional oil trade structure. Moreover, the global oil trade network presents a ‘robust but yet fragile’ characteristic, and the impacts of trade interruption always tend to spread throughout the whole network even if the occurrence of export disruptions is localised

An empirical model of global spread-f occurrence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Singleton, D.G.

1974-09-01

A method of combining models of ionospheric F-layer peak electron density and irregularity incremental electron density into a model of the occurrence probability of the frequency spreading component of spread-F is presented. The predictions of the model are compared with spread-F occurrence data obtained under sunspot maximum conditions. Good agreement is obtained for latitudes less than 70 0 geomagnetic. At higher latitudes, the inclusion of a 'blackout factor' in the model allows it to accurately represent the data and, in so doing, resolves an apparent discrepancy in the occurrence statistics at high latitudes. The blackout factor is ascribed to the effect of polar blackout on the spread-F statistics and/or the lack of a definitve incremental electron density model for irregularities at polar latitudes. Ways of isolating these effects and assessing their relative importance in the blackout factor are discussed. The model, besides providing estimates of spread-F occurrence on a worldwide basis, which will be of value in the engineering of HF and VHF communications, also furnishes a means of further checking the irregularity incremental electron density model on which it is based. (author)

Information spread of emergency events: path searching on social networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Dai, Weihui; Hu, Hongzhi; Wu, Tunan; Dai, Yonghui

2014-01-01

Emergency has attracted global attentions of government and the public, and it will easily trigger a series of serious social problems if it is not supervised effectively in the dissemination process. In the Internet world, people communicate with each other and form various virtual communities based on social networks, which lead to a complex and fast information spread pattern of emergency events. This paper collects Internet data based on data acquisition and topic detection technology, analyzes the process of information spread on social networks, describes the diffusions and impacts of that information from the perspective of random graph, and finally seeks the key paths through an improved IBF algorithm. Application cases have shown that this algorithm can search the shortest spread paths efficiently, which may help us to guide and control the information dissemination of emergency events on early warning.

Information Spread of Emergency Events: Path Searching on Social Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Weihui Dai

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Emergency has attracted global attentions of government and the public, and it will easily trigger a series of serious social problems if it is not supervised effectively in the dissemination process. In the Internet world, people communicate with each other and form various virtual communities based on social networks, which lead to a complex and fast information spread pattern of emergency events. This paper collects Internet data based on data acquisition and topic detection technology, analyzes the process of information spread on social networks, describes the diffusions and impacts of that information from the perspective of random graph, and finally seeks the key paths through an improved IBF algorithm. Application cases have shown that this algorithm can search the shortest spread paths efficiently, which may help us to guide and control the information dissemination of emergency events on early warning.

Mapping global diversity patterns for migratory birds.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marius Somveille

Full Text Available Nearly one in five bird species has separate breeding and overwintering distributions, and the regular migrations of these species cause a substantial seasonal redistribution of avian diversity across the world. However, despite its ecological importance, bird migration has been largely ignored in studies of global avian biodiversity, with few studies having addressed it from a macroecological perspective. Here, we analyse a dataset on the global distribution of the world's birds in order to examine global spatial patterns in the diversity of migratory species, including: the seasonal variation in overall species diversity due to migration; the contribution of migratory birds to local bird diversity; and the distribution of narrow-range and threatened migratory birds. Our analyses reveal a striking asymmetry between the Northern and Southern hemispheres, evident in all of the patterns investigated. The highest migratory bird diversity was found in the Northern Hemisphere, with high inter-continental turnover in species composition between breeding and non-breeding seasons, and extensive regions (at high latitudes where migratory birds constitute the majority of the local avifauna. Threatened migratory birds are concentrated mainly in Central and Southern Asia, whereas narrow-range migratory species are mainly found in Central America, the Himalayas and Patagonia. Overall, global patterns in the diversity of migratory birds indicate that bird migration is mainly a Northern Hemisphere phenomenon. The asymmetry between the Northern and Southern hemispheres could not have easily been predicted from the combined results of regional scale studies, highlighting the importance of a global perspective.

Wet climate and transportation routes accelerate spread of human plague

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Lei; Stige, Leif Chr.; Kausrud, Kyrre Linné; Ben Ari, Tamara; Wang, Shuchun; Fang, Xiye; Schmid, Boris V.; Liu, Qiyong; Stenseth, Nils Chr.; Zhang, Zhibin

2014-01-01

Currently, large-scale transmissions of infectious diseases are becoming more closely associated with accelerated globalization and climate change, but quantitative analyses are still rare. By using an extensive dataset consisting of date and location of cases for the third plague pandemic from 1772 to 1964 in China and a novel method (nearest neighbour approach) which deals with both short- and long-distance transmissions, we found the presence of major roads, rivers and coastline accelerated the spread of plague and shaped the transmission patterns. We found that plague spread velocity was positively associated with wet conditions (measured by an index of drought and flood events) in China, probably due to flood-driven transmission by people or rodents. Our study provides new insights on transmission patterns and possible mechanisms behind variability in transmission speed, with implications for prevention and control measures. The methodology may also be applicable to studies of disease dynamics or species movement in other systems. PMID:24523275

Optimizing hybrid spreading in metapopulations.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Changwang; Zhou, Shi; Miller, Joel C; Cox, Ingemar J; Chain, Benjamin M

2015-04-29

Epidemic spreading phenomena are ubiquitous in nature and society. Examples include the spreading of diseases, information, and computer viruses. Epidemics can spread by local spreading, where infected nodes can only infect a limited set of direct target nodes and global spreading, where an infected node can infect every other node. In reality, many epidemics spread using a hybrid mixture of both types of spreading. In this study we develop a theoretical framework for studying hybrid epidemics, and examine the optimum balance between spreading mechanisms in terms of achieving the maximum outbreak size. We show the existence of critically hybrid epidemics where neither spreading mechanism alone can cause a noticeable spread but a combination of the two spreading mechanisms would produce an enormous outbreak. Our results provide new strategies for maximising beneficial epidemics and estimating the worst outcome of damaging hybrid epidemics.

Global patterns of evolutionary distinct and globally endangered amphibians and mammals.

Science.gov (United States)

Safi, Kamran; Armour-Marshall, Katrina; Baillie, Jonathan E M; Isaac, Nick J B

2013-01-01

Conservation of phylogenetic diversity allows maximising evolutionary information preserved within fauna and flora. The "EDGE of Existence" programme is the first institutional conservation initiative that prioritises species based on phylogenetic information. Species are ranked in two ways: one according to their evolutionary distinctiveness (ED) and second, by including IUCN extinction status, their evolutionary distinctiveness and global endangerment (EDGE). Here, we describe the global patterns in the spatial distribution of priority ED and EDGE species, in order to identify conservation areas for mammalian and amphibian communities. In addition, we investigate whether environmental conditions can predict the observed spatial pattern in ED and EDGE globally. Priority zones with high concentrations of ED and EDGE scores were defined using two different methods. The overlap between mammal and amphibian zones was very small, reflecting the different phylo-biogeographic histories. Mammal ED zones were predominantly found on the African continent and the neotropical forests, whereas in amphibians, ED zones were concentrated in North America. Mammal EDGE zones were mainly in South-East Asia, southern Africa and Madagascar; for amphibians they were in central and south America. The spatial pattern of ED and EDGE was poorly described by a suite of environmental variables. Mapping the spatial distribution of ED and EDGE provides an important step towards identifying priority areas for the conservation of mammalian and amphibian phylogenetic diversity in the EDGE of existence programme.

Spread patterns of lymph nodes and the value of elective neck irradiation for esthesioneuroblastoma.

Science.gov (United States)

Yin, Zhen-zhen; Luo, Jing-wei; Gao, Li; Yi, Jun-lin; Huang, Xiao-dong; Qu, Yuan; Wang, Kai; Zhang, Shi-ping; Xiao, Jian-ping; Xu, Guo-zhen; Li, Ye-xiong

2015-11-01

This study was aimed to characterize patterns of lymphatic spread and assess the value of prophylactic elective neck irradiation (ENI) for esthesioneuroblastoma (ENB). A retrospectively analysis of 116 patients with newly diagnosed ENB at our institution over 35-year period was undertaken. 32 patients (28%) presented lymph node metastasis at initial diagnosis, the common sites involved were level II, Ib, level III and VIIa. Among 80 N-negative patients staged in Modified Kadish B/C, 50 patients were delivered with ENI, 30 patients were not. The 5-year regional failure-free survival was 98% in patients treated with ENI and 75% in patients without ENI (p=0.005), regional failure rate decreased significantly from 23% (7/30) to 2% (1/50) after ENI (p=0.002). Multivariate analysis also suggested that ENI was an independent favorable predictor for regional controlling (HR, 0.102; 95% CI: 0.012-0.848; p=0.035). This is the largest cohort of ENB so far in a single institute, and also the first detailed description of nodal spread patterns of N-positive ENB. Elective neck irradiation reduced the regional failure significantly and should be recommended as a part of initial treatment strategy for patients staged with Modified Kadish B/C. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatio-temporal cerebral blood flow perfusion patterns in cortical spreading depression

Science.gov (United States)

Verisokin, Andrey Yu.; Verveyko, Darya V.; Postnov, Dmitry E.

2017-04-01

Cortical spreading depression (CSD) is an example of one of the most common abnormalities in biophysical brain functioning. Despite the fact that there are many mathematical models describing the cortical spreading depression (CSD), most of them do not take into consideration the role of redistribution of cerebral blood flow (CBF), that results in the formation of spatio-temporal patterns. The paper presents a mathematical model, which successfully explains the CBD role in the CSD process. Numerical study of this model has revealed the formation of stationary dissipative structures, visually analogous to Turing structures. However, the mechanism of their formation is not diffusion. We show these structures occur due to another type of spatial coupling, that is related to tissue perfusion rate. The proposed model predicts that at similar state of neurons the distribution of blood flow and oxygenation may by different. Currently, this effect is not taken into account when the Blood oxygen-level dependent (BOLD) contrast imaging used in functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Thus, the diagnosis on the BOLD signal can be ambiguous. We believe that our results can be used in the future for a more correct interpretation of the data obtained with fMRI, NIRS and other similar methods for research of the brain activity.

Global patterns of evolutionary distinct and globally endangered amphibians and mammals.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kamran Safi

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Conservation of phylogenetic diversity allows maximising evolutionary information preserved within fauna and flora. The "EDGE of Existence" programme is the first institutional conservation initiative that prioritises species based on phylogenetic information. Species are ranked in two ways: one according to their evolutionary distinctiveness (ED and second, by including IUCN extinction status, their evolutionary distinctiveness and global endangerment (EDGE. Here, we describe the global patterns in the spatial distribution of priority ED and EDGE species, in order to identify conservation areas for mammalian and amphibian communities. In addition, we investigate whether environmental conditions can predict the observed spatial pattern in ED and EDGE globally. METHODS AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Priority zones with high concentrations of ED and EDGE scores were defined using two different methods. The overlap between mammal and amphibian zones was very small, reflecting the different phylo-biogeographic histories. Mammal ED zones were predominantly found on the African continent and the neotropical forests, whereas in amphibians, ED zones were concentrated in North America. Mammal EDGE zones were mainly in South-East Asia, southern Africa and Madagascar; for amphibians they were in central and south America. The spatial pattern of ED and EDGE was poorly described by a suite of environmental variables. CONCLUSIONS: Mapping the spatial distribution of ED and EDGE provides an important step towards identifying priority areas for the conservation of mammalian and amphibian phylogenetic diversity in the EDGE of existence programme.

Phase Transitions of an Epidemic Spreading Model in Small-World Networks

Science.gov (United States)

Hua, Da-Yin; Gao, Ke

2011-06-01

We propose a modified susceptible-infected-refractory-susceptible (SIRS) model to investigate the global oscillations of the epidemic spreading in Watts—Strogatz (WS) small-world networks. It is found that when an individual immunity does not change or decays slowly in an immune period, the system can exhibit complex transition from an infecting stationary state to a large amplitude sustained oscillation or an absorbing state with no infection. When the immunity decays rapidly in the immune period, the transition to the global oscillation disappears and there is no oscillation. Furthermore, based on the spatio-temporal evolution patterns and the phase diagram, it is disclosed that a long immunity period takes an important role in the emergence of the global oscillation in small-world networks.

Accounting for sampling patterns reverses the relative importance of trade and climate for the global sharing of exotic plants

Science.gov (United States)

Sofaer, Helen R.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.

2017-01-01

AimThe distributions of exotic species reflect patterns of human-mediated dispersal, species climatic tolerances and a suite of other biotic and abiotic factors. The relative importance of each of these factors will shape how the spread of exotic species is affected by ongoing economic globalization and climate change. However, patterns of trade may be correlated with variation in scientific sampling effort globally, potentially confounding studies that do not account for sampling patterns.LocationGlobal.Time periodMuseum records, generally from the 1800s up to 2015.Major taxa studiedPlant species exotic to the United States.MethodsWe used data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) to summarize the number of plant species with exotic occurrences in the United States that also occur in each other country world-wide. We assessed the relative importance of trade and climatic similarity for explaining variation in the number of shared species while evaluating several methods to account for variation in sampling effort among countries.ResultsAccounting for variation in sampling effort reversed the relative importance of trade and climate for explaining numbers of shared species. Trade was strongly correlated with numbers of shared U.S. exotic plants between the United States and other countries before, but not after, accounting for sampling variation among countries. Conversely, accounting for sampling effort strengthened the relationship between climatic similarity and species sharing. Using the number of records as a measure of sampling effort provided a straightforward approach for the analysis of occurrence data, whereas species richness estimators and rarefaction were less effective at removing sampling bias.Main conclusionsOur work provides support for broad-scale climatic limitation on the distributions of exotic species, illustrates the need to account for variation in sampling effort in large biodiversity databases, and highlights the

Patient referral patterns and the spread of hospital-acquired infections through national health care networks.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tjibbe Donker

2010-03-01

Full Text Available Rates of hospital-acquired infections, such as methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA, are increasingly used as quality indicators for hospital hygiene. Alternatively, these rates may vary between hospitals, because hospitals differ in admission and referral of potentially colonized patients. We assessed if different referral patterns between hospitals in health care networks can influence rates of hospital-acquired infections like MRSA. We used the Dutch medical registration of 2004 to measure the connectedness between hospitals. This allowed us to reconstruct the network of hospitals in the Netherlands. We used mathematical models to assess the effect of different patient referral patterns on the potential spread of hospital-acquired infections between hospitals, and between categories of hospitals (University medical centers, top clinical hospitals and general hospitals. University hospitals have a higher number of shared patients than teaching or general hospitals, and are therefore more likely to be among the first to receive colonized patients. Moreover, as the network is directional towards university hospitals, they have a higher prevalence, even when infection control measures are equally effective in all hospitals. Patient referral patterns have a profound effect on the spread of health care-associated infections like hospital-acquired MRSA. The MRSA prevalence therefore differs between hospitals with the position of each hospital within the health care network. Any comparison of MRSA rates between hospitals, as a benchmark for hospital hygiene, should therefore take the position of a hospital within the network into account.

Ocean, Spreading Centre

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Krishna, K.S.

over the global midoceanic ridges have found some explicit relationships between spreading rate, seismic structure, and ridge-axis morphology. Bibliography Detrick, R. S., Buhl, P., Vera, E., Mutter, J., Orcutt, J., Madsen, J., and Brocher, T., 1987...

Satellite communications - Intelsat and global patterns

Science.gov (United States)

Astrain, S.

1983-10-01

The global pattern of mankind's population growth is examined, taking into account the exponential increase in population which began only in the 17th century. As world population has grown, trade has increased, and transportation and communications have become vitally important. A revolution in global communications was initiated when Intelsat launched the first international communications satellite, 'Early Bird', in April 1965. Since April 1965, a tremendous development in global communications by means of satellites has taken place. The Intelsat VI satellite will have a capacity of 36,000 telephone circuits plus 2 TV channels, while the capacity of Early Bird was only 240 telephone circuits. Today, Intelsat is truly an international organization which includes 108 member countries. Attention is given to the particular importance of the Intelsat services to the developing countries, the exploration of new technologies and system concepts, and the extension of services to those portions of the global village which have remained electronically isolated.

Role for migratory wild birds in the global spread of avian influenza H5N8

Science.gov (United States)

,; Ip, Hon S.

2016-01-01

Avian influenza viruses affect both poultry production and public health. A subtype H5N8 (clade 2.3.4.4) virus, following an outbreak in poultry in South Korea in January 2014, rapidly spread worldwide in 2014–2015. Our analysis of H5N8 viral sequences, epidemiological investigations, waterfowl migration, and poultry trade showed that long-distance migratory birds can play a major role in the global spread of avian influenza viruses. Further, we found that the hemagglutinin of clade 2.3.4.4 virus was remarkably promiscuous, creating reassortants with multiple neuraminidase subtypes. Improving our understanding of the circumpolar circulation of avian influenza viruses in migratory waterfowl will help to provide early warning of threats from avian influenza to poultry, and potentially human, health.

Population-level genomics identifies the emergence and global spread of a human transmissible multidrug-resistant nontuberculous mycobacterium

Science.gov (United States)

Rodriguez-Rincon, Daniela; Everall, Isobel; Brown, Karen P; Moreno, Pablo; Verma, Deepshikha; Hill, Emily; Drijkoningen, Judith; Gilligan, Peter; Esther, Charles R; Noone, Peadar G; Giddings, Olivia; Bell, Scott C.; Thomson, Rachel; Wainwright, Claire E.; Coulter, Chris; Pandey, Sushil; Wood, Michelle E; Stockwell, Rebecca E; Ramsay, Kay A; Sherrard, Laura J; Kidd, Timothy J; Jabbour, Nassib; Johnson, Graham R; Knibbs, Luke D; Morawska, Lidia; Sly, Peter D; Jones, Andrew; Bilton, Diana; Laurenson, Ian; Ruddy, Michael; Bourke, Stephen; Bowler, Ian CJW; Chapman, Stephen J; Clayton, Andrew; Cullen, Mairi; Daniels, Thomas; Dempsey, Owen; Denton, Miles; Desai, Maya; Drew, Richard J; Edenborough, Frank; Evans, Jason; Folb, Jonathan; Humphrey, Helen; Isalska, Barbara; Jensen-Fangel, Søren; Jönsson, Bodil; Jones, Andrew M.; Katzenstein, Terese L; Lillebaek, Troels; MacGregor, Gordon; Mayell, Sarah; Millar, Michael; Modha, Deborah; Nash, Edward F; O’Brien, Christopher; O’Brien, Deirdre; Ohri, Chandra; Pao, Caroline S; Peckham, Daniel; Perrin, Felicity; Perry, Audrey; Pressler, Tania; Prtak, Laura; Qvist, Tavs; Robb, Ali; Rodgers, Helen; Schaffer, Kirsten; Shafi, Nadia; van Ingen, Jakko; Walshaw, Martin; Watson, Danie; West, Noreen; Whitehouse, Joanna; Haworth, Charles S; Harris, Simon R; Ordway, Diane; Parkhill, Julian; Floto, R. Andres

2016-01-01

Lung infections with Mycobacterium abscessus, a species of multidrug resistant nontuberculous mycobacteria, are emerging as an important global threat to individuals with cystic fibrosis (CF) where they accelerate inflammatory lung damage leading to increased morbidity and mortality. Previously, M. abscessus was thought to be independently acquired by susceptible individuals from the environment. However, using whole genome analysis of a global collection of clinical isolates, we show that the majority of M. abscessus infections are acquired through transmission, potentially via fomites and aerosols, of recently emerged dominant circulating clones that have spread globally. We demonstrate that these clones are associated with worse clinical outcomes, show increased virulence in cell-based and mouse infection models, and thus represent an urgent international infection challenge. PMID:27846606

Competition, transmission and pattern evolution: A network analysis of global oil trade

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Hai-Ying; Ji, Qiang; Fan, Ying

2014-01-01

This paper studies the competition among oil importers using complex network theory, combined with several alternative measures of competition intensity, to analyze the evolution of the pattern and transmission of oil-trading competition. The results indicate that oil trade has formed a global competition pattern and that the role played by the Asian-Pacific region in the evolution of this competition pattern is becoming increasingly prominent. In addition, global competition intensity has continued to rise, and non-OECD countries have become the main driving force for this increase in global competition intensity. The large oil importers are the most significant parts of the global oil-trading competition pattern. They are not only the major participants in the competition for oil resources but also play important roles in the transmission of oil-trading competition. China and the United States especially display the feature of globalization, whose impacts of transmission reach across the whole oil-trading competition network. Finally, a “5C” (changeability, contestability, cooperation, commitment and circumstances) policy framework is put forward to maintain the stability of oil trade and improve the energy security of oil importers in various aspects. - Highlights: • An oil-trading competition network is constructed using complex network theory. • Oil trade has formed a global competition pattern and its intensity has kept rising. • The status of the Asian-Pacific region in the competition pattern becomes prominent. • Large oil importers play important roles in transmitting the trading competition. • A “5C” policy framework is put forward to cope with the intensive competition

Dielectric fluid directional spreading under the action of corona discharge

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Shangru; Liu, Jie; Hu, Qun; Jiang, Teng; Yang, Jinchu; Liu, Sheng; Zheng, Huai

2018-01-01

Liquid spreading is a very common nature phenomenon and of significant importance for a broad range of applications. In this study, a dielectric fluid directional spreading phenomenon is presented. Under the action of corona discharge, a dielectric fluid, here a typical silicone directionally spreads along conductive patterns on conductive/nonconductive substrates. Directional spreading behaviors of silicone were experimentally observed on different conductive patterns in detail. Spreading speeds were analyzed at different driving voltages, which induced the corona discharge. The presented phenomenon may be useful to inspire several techniques of manipulating liquid transportation and fabricating micropatterns.

The landscape genetics of infectious disease emergence and spread.

Science.gov (United States)

Biek, Roman; Real, Leslie A

2010-09-01

The spread of parasites is inherently a spatial process often embedded in physically complex landscapes. It is therefore not surprising that infectious disease researchers are increasingly taking a landscape genetics perspective to elucidate mechanisms underlying basic ecological processes driving infectious disease dynamics and to understand the linkage between spatially dependent population processes and the geographic distribution of genetic variation within both hosts and parasites. The increasing availability of genetic information on hosts and parasites when coupled to their ecological interactions can lead to insights for predicting patterns of disease emergence, spread and control. Here, we review research progress in this area based on four different motivations for the application of landscape genetics approaches: (i) assessing the spatial organization of genetic variation in parasites as a function of environmental variability, (ii) using host population genetic structure as a means to parameterize ecological dynamics that indirectly influence parasite populations, for example, gene flow and movement pathways across heterogeneous landscapes and the concurrent transport of infectious agents, (iii) elucidating the temporal and spatial scales of disease processes and (iv) reconstructing and understanding infectious disease invasion. Throughout this review, we emphasize that landscape genetic principles are relevant to infection dynamics across a range of scales from within host dynamics to global geographic patterns and that they can also be applied to unconventional 'landscapes' such as heterogeneous contact networks underlying the spread of human and livestock diseases. We conclude by discussing some general considerations and problems for inferring epidemiological processes from genetic data and try to identify possible future directions and applications for this rapidly expanding field.

Hydrothermal plumes over spreading-center axes: Global distributions and geological inferences

Science.gov (United States)

Baker, Edward T.; German, Christopher R.; Elderfield, Henry

Seafloor hydrothermal circulation is the principal agent of energy and mass exchange between the ocean and the earth's crust. Discharging fluids cool hot rock, construct mineral deposits, nurture biological communities, alter deep-sea mixing and circulation patterns, and profoundly influence ocean chemistry and biology. Although the active discharge orifices themselves cover only a minuscule percentage of the ridge-axis seafloor, the investigation and quantification of their effects is enhanced as a consequence of the mixing process that forms hydrothermal plumes. Hydrothermal fluids discharged from vents are rapidly diluted with ambient seawater by factors of 104-105 [Lupton et al., 1985]. During dilution, the mixture rises tens to hundreds of meters to a level of neutral buoyancy, eventually spreading laterally as a distinct hydrographic and chemical layer with a spatial scale of tens to thousands of kilometers [e.g., Lupton and Craig, 1981; Baker and Massoth, 1987; Speer and Rona, 1989].

Mitochondrial Phylogenomics Resolves the Global Spread of Higher Termites, Ecosystem Engineers of the Tropics.

Science.gov (United States)

Bourguignon, Thomas; Lo, Nathan; Šobotník, Jan; Ho, Simon Y W; Iqbal, Naeem; Coissac, Eric; Lee, Maria; Jendryka, Martin M; Sillam-Dussès, David; Krížková, Barbora; Roisin, Yves; Evans, Theodore A

2017-03-01

The higher termites (Termitidae) are keystone species and ecosystem engineers. They have exceptional biomass and play important roles in decomposition of dead plant matter, in soil manipulation, and as the primary food for many animals, especially in the tropics. Higher termites are most diverse in rainforests, with estimated origins in the late Eocene (∼54 Ma), postdating the breakup of Pangaea and Gondwana when most continents became separated. Since termites are poor fliers, their origin and spread across the globe requires alternative explanation. Here, we show that higher termites originated 42-54 Ma in Africa and subsequently underwent at least 24 dispersal events between the continents in two main periods. Using phylogenetic analyses of mitochondrial genomes from 415 species, including all higher termite taxonomic and feeding groups, we inferred 10 dispersal events to South America and Asia 35-23 Ma, coinciding with the sharp decrease in global temperature, sea level, and rainforest cover in the Oligocene. After global temperatures increased, 23-5 Ma, there was only one more dispersal to South America but 11 to Asia and Australia, and one dispersal back to Africa. Most of these dispersal events were transoceanic and might have occurred via floating logs. The spread of higher termites across oceans was helped by the novel ecological opportunities brought about by environmental and ecosystem change, and led termites to become one of the few insect groups with specialized mammal predators. This has parallels with modern invasive species that have been able to thrive in human-impacted ecosystems. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Global patterns in mangrove soil carbon stocks and losses

KAUST Repository

Atwood, Trisha B.

2017-06-26

Mangrove soils represent a large sink for otherwise rapidly recycled carbon (C). However, widespread deforestation threatens the preservation of this important C stock. It is therefore imperative that global patterns in mangrove soil C stocks and their susceptibility to remineralization are understood. Here, we present patterns in mangrove soil C stocks across hemispheres, latitudes, countries and mangrove community compositions, and estimate potential annual CO2 emissions for countries where mangroves occur. Global potential CO2 emissions from soils as a result of mangrove loss were estimated to be ~7.0 Tg CO2e yr−1. Countries with the highest potential CO2 emissions from soils are Indonesia (3,410 Gg CO2e yr−1) and Malaysia (1,288 Gg CO2e yr−1). The patterns described serve as a baseline by which countries can assess their mangrove soil C stocks and potential emissions from mangrove deforestation.

Definition of spatial patterns of bark beetle Ips typographus (L.) outbreak spreading in Tatra Mountains (Central Europe), using GIS

Science.gov (United States)

Rastislav Jakus; Wojciech Grodzki; Marek Jezik; Marcin Jachym

2003-01-01

The spread of bark beetle outbreaks in the Tatra Mountains was explored by using both terrestrial and remote sensing techniques. Both approaches have proven to be useful for studying spatial patterns of bark beetle population dynamics. The terrestrial methods were applied on existing forestry databases. Vegetation change analysis (image differentiation), digital...

Global vegetation-fire pattern under different land use and climate conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Thonicke, K.; Poulter, B.; Heyder, U.; Gumpenberger, M.; Cramer, W.

2008-12-01

Fire is a process of global significance in the Earth System influencing vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling and biophysical feedbacks. Naturally ignited wildfires have long history in the Earth System. Humans have been using fire to shape the landscape for their purposes for many millenia, sometimes influencing the status of the vegetation remarkably as for example in Mediterranean-type ecosystems. Processes and drivers describing fire danger, ignitions, fire spread and effects are relatively well-known for many fire-prone ecosystems. Modeling these has a long tradition in fire-affected regions to predict fire risk and behavior for fire-fighting purposes. On the other hand, the global vegetation community realized the importance of disturbances to be recognized in their global vegetation models with fire being globally most important and so-far best studied. First attempts to simulate fire globally considered a minimal set of drivers, whereas recent developments attempt to consider each fire process separately. The process-based fire model SPITFIRE (SPread and InTensity of FIRE) simulates these processes embedded in the LPJ DGVM. Uncertainties still arise from missing measurements for some parameters in less-studied fire regimes, or from broad PFT classifications which subsume different fire-ecological adaptations and tolerances. Some earth observation data sets as well as fire emission models help to evaluate seasonality and spatial distribution of simulated fire ignitions, area burnt and fire emissions within SPITFIRE. Deforestation fires are a major source of carbon released to the atmosphere in the tropics; in the Amazon basin it is the second-largest contributor to Brazils GHG emissions. How ongoing deforestation affects fire regimes, forest stability and biogeochemical cycling in the Amazon basin under present climate conditions will be presented. Relative importance of fire vs. climate and land use change is analyzed. Emissions resulting from

Global Dispersal Pattern of HIV Type 1 Subtype CRF01_AE

OpenAIRE

Poljak, Mario; Angelis, Konstantinos; Albert, Jan; Mamais, Ioannis; Magiorkinis, Gkikas; Hatzakis, Angelos; Hamouda, Osamah; Stuck, Daniel; Vercauteren, Jurgen; Wensing, Annemarie; Alexiev, Ivailo

2016-01-01

Background. Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) subtype CRF01_AE originated in Africa and then passed to Thailand, where it established a major epidemic. Despite the global presence of CRF01_AE, little is known about its subsequent dispersal pattern. Methods. We assembled a global data set of 2736 CRF01_AE sequences by pooling sequences from public databases and patient-cohort studies. We estimated viral dispersal patterns, using statistical phylogeographic analysis run over bootstrap...

Detection of viruses and the spatial and temporal spread patterns of viral diseases of cucurbits (Cucurbitaceae spp.) in the coastal savannah zone of Ghana

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gyamena, A. E

2013-07-01

Cucurbits are susceptible to over 35 plant viruses; each of these viruses is capable of causing total crop failure in a poorly managed virus pathosystem. The objectives of this study were to detect the viruses that infect six cucurbit species in the coastal savannah zone of Ghana and to describe the spatial and temporal spread patterns of virus epidemics in zucchini squash (Cucurbita pepo L.) by the use of mathematical and geostatistical models. Cucumber (Cucumis sativus L.), watermelon (Citrullus lanatus Thunb.), zucchini squash (Cucurbita pepo L.), butternut squash (Cucurbita moschata Duchesne), egushi (Citrullus colocynthis L. Schrad.) and melon (Cucumis melo L.) were grown on an experimental field in the coastal savannah zone of Ghana and were monitored for the expression of virus and virus-like symptoms. The observed symptoms were further confirmed by Double Antibody Sandwich Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay (DAS ELISA) and mechanical inoculation of indicator plants. The temporal spread patterns of virus disease in zucchini squash were analyzed by exponential logistic, monomolecular and gompertz mechanistic models. The spatial patterns of virus disease spread in zucchini squash field were analyzed by semivariograms and inverse distance weighing (IDW) methods. Cucumber, zucchini squash, melon and butternut squash were infected by both Cucumber mosaic virus (CMW) and Papaya ringspot virus (PRSV-W). Egushi was infected by CMW but not PRSV-W. None of the six cucurbit species were infected by Watermelon mosaic virus (WMV) or Zucchini yellow mosaic virus (ZYMV). The temporal pattern of disease incidence in the zucchini squash field followed the gompertz function with an average apparent infection rate of 0.026 per day. The temporal pattern of disease severity was best described by the exponential model with coefficient of determination of 94.38 % and rate of progress disease severity of 0.114 per day. As at 49 days after planting (DAP), disease incidence and

Hurricane Activity and the Large-Scale Pattern of Spread of an Invasive Plant Species

Science.gov (United States)

Bhattarai, Ganesh P.; Cronin, James T.

2014-01-01

Disturbances are a primary facilitator of the growth and spread of invasive species. However, the effects of large-scale disturbances, such as hurricanes and tropical storms, on the broad geographic patterns of invasive species growth and spread have not been investigated. We used historical aerial imagery to determine the growth rate of invasive Phragmites australis patches in wetlands along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the United States. These were relatively undisturbed wetlands where P. australis had room for unrestricted growth. Over the past several decades, invasive P. australis stands expanded in size by 6–35% per year. Based on tropical storm and hurricane activity over that same time period, we found that the frequency of hurricane-force winds explained 81% of the variation in P. australis growth over this broad geographic range. The expansion of P. australis stands was strongly and positively correlated with hurricane frequency. In light of the many climatic models that predict an increase in the frequency and intensity of hurricanes over the next century, these results suggest a strong link between climate change and species invasion and a challenging future ahead for the management of invasive species. PMID:24878928

Reliability and Efficiency of Generalized Rumor Spreading Model on Complex Social Networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Naimi, Yaghoob; Naimi, Mohammad

2013-01-01

We introduce the generalized rumor spreading model and investigate some properties of this model on different complex social networks. Despite pervious rumor models that both the spreader-spreader (SS) and the spreader-stifler (SR) interactions have the same rate α, we define α (1) and α (2) for SS and SR interactions, respectively. The effect of variation of α (1) and α (2) on the final density of stiflers is investigated. Furthermore, the influence of the topological structure of the network in rumor spreading is studied by analyzing the behavior of several global parameters such as reliability and efficiency. Our results show that while networks with homogeneous connectivity patterns reach a higher reliability, scale-free topologies need a less time to reach a steady state with respect the rumor. (interdisciplinary physics and related areas of science and technology)

HANPP Collection: Global Patterns in Net Primary Productivity (NPP)

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Global Patterns in Net Primary Productivity (NPP) portion of the Human Appropriation of Net Primary Productivity (HANPP) Collection maps the net amount of solar...

Free energy analysis of cell spreading.

Science.gov (United States)

McEvoy, Eóin; Deshpande, Vikram S; McGarry, Patrick

2017-10-01

In this study we present a steady-state adaptation of the thermodynamically motivated stress fiber (SF) model of Vigliotti et al. (2015). We implement this steady-state formulation in a non-local finite element setting where we also consider global conservation of the total number of cytoskeletal proteins within the cell, global conservation of the number of binding integrins on the cell membrane, and adhesion limiting ligand density on the substrate surface. We present a number of simulations of cell spreading in which we consider a limited subset of the possible deformed spread-states assumed by the cell in order to examine the hypothesis that free energy minimization drives the process of cell spreading. Simulations suggest that cell spreading can be viewed as a competition between (i) decreasing cytoskeletal free energy due to strain induced assembly of cytoskeletal proteins into contractile SFs, and (ii) increasing elastic free energy due to stretching of the mechanically passive components of the cell. The computed minimum free energy spread area is shown to be lower for a cell on a compliant substrate than on a rigid substrate. Furthermore, a low substrate ligand density is found to limit cell spreading. The predicted dependence of cell spread area on substrate stiffness and ligand density is in agreement with the experiments of Engler et al. (2003). We also simulate the experiments of Théry et al. (2006), whereby initially circular cells deform and adhere to "V-shaped" and "Y-shaped" ligand patches. Analysis of a number of different spread states reveals that deformed configurations with the lowest free energy exhibit a SF distribution that corresponds to experimental observations, i.e. a high concentration of highly aligned SFs occurs along free edges, with lower SF concentrations in the interior of the cell. In summary, the results of this study suggest that cell spreading is driven by free energy minimization based on a competition between decreasing

HANPP Collection: Global Patterns in Net Primary Productivity (NPP)

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Global Patterns in Net Primary Productivity (NPP) portion of the HANPP Collection maps the net amount of solar energy converted to plant organic matter through...

Modelling Global Pattern Formations for Collaborative Learning Environments

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Grappiolo, Corrado; Cheong, Yun-Gyung; Khaled, Rilla

2012-01-01

We present our research towards the design of a computational framework capable of modelling the formation and evolution of global patterns (i.e. group structures) in a population of social individuals. The framework is intended to be used in collaborative environments, e.g. social serious games...

Global patterns of phytoplankton dynamics in coastal ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Paerl, H.; Yin, Kedong; Cloern, J.

2011-01-01

Scientific Committee on Ocean Research Working Group 137 Meeting; Hangzhou, China, 17-21 October 2010; Phytoplankton biomass and community structure have undergone dramatic changes in coastal ecosystems over the past several decades in response to climate variability and human disturbance. These changes have short- and long-term impacts on global carbon and nutrient cycling, food web structure and productivity, and coastal ecosystem services. There is a need to identify the underlying processes and measure the rates at which they alter coastal ecosystems on a global scale. Hence, the Scientific Committee on Ocean Research (SCOR) formed Working Group 137 (WG 137), "Global Patterns of Phytoplankton Dynamics in Coastal Ecosystems: A Comparative Analysis of Time Series Observations" (http://wg137.net/). This group evolved from a 2007 AGU-sponsored Chapman Conference entitled "Long Time-Series Observations in Coastal Ecosystems: Comparative Analyses of Phytoplankton Dynamics on Regional to Global Scales.".

Introduction: simultaneously global and local: reassessing smallpox vaccination and its spread, 1789-1900.

Science.gov (United States)

Bhattacharya, Sanjoy; Brimnes, Niels

2009-01-01

The last two decades have seen a reawakening of scholarly interest in the history of smallpox prevention. Accounts of vaccination and others efforts at controlling smallpox have moved away from heroic narratives toward more nuanced and contextualized understandings. It is now accepted that several viruses traveled under the vaccine label from the outset, and it has been demonstrated that a variety of techniques were used to perform vaccination operations. The character of nineteenth century sea voyages that took the vaccine to distant territories has also been re-examined; sometimes the spread of the vaccine was caused by private networks and ad hoc decisions, while at other times it was the result of enterprises with close resemblances to contemporary centralized vaccination campaigns. Looking beyond Europe and North America we encounter a variety of state attitudes toward vaccination, ranging from concentrated efforts to spread the technique to efforts more uncertain and diluted. Although the reluctance to accept vaccination has been amply documented, recent studies emphasize this should not be attributed to simplistic dichotomies of modernity versus tradition or science versus culture; instead, instances of resistance are best studied as specific contextualized interactions. Indeed, factors like favorable geography, strong bureaucratic structures, and the absence of variolation seem to have helped the relatively smooth transfer of vaccination technologies. Perhaps most important, recent research encourages us to continue to study smallpox vaccination as a phenomenon that was simultaneously global and local.

What drives the formation of global oil trade patterns?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Hai-Ying; Ji, Qiang; Fan, Ying

2015-01-01

In this paper, the spatial characteristics of current global oil trade patterns are investigated by proposing a new indicator Moran-F. Meanwhile, the factors that influence the formation of oil trade patterns are identified by constructing four different kinds of spatial econometric models. The findings indicate that most oil exporters have an obvious export focus in North America and a relatively balanced export in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region. Besides supply and demand factors, technological progress and energy efficiency have also significantly influenced the oil trade. Moreover, there is a spillover effect of trade flow among different regions, but its impact is weak. In addition, oil importers in the same region have the potential to cooperate due to their similar import sources. Finally, promotion of oil importers' R&D investments can effectively reduce the demand for global oil trade. - Highlights: • A new spatial association Moran-F indicator that applies to trade flows is proposed. • Driving factors affecting the formation of oil trade patterns are identified. • Oil-exporting countries implement various export strategies in different regions. • Supply, demand and technological factors contribute to the oil trade patterns. • Spillover effect of each factor affecting oil trade flows does exist but is limited

Global biogeography of human infectious diseases.

Science.gov (United States)

Murray, Kris A; Preston, Nicholas; Allen, Toph; Zambrana-Torrelio, Carlos; Hosseini, Parviez R; Daszak, Peter

2015-10-13

The distributions of most infectious agents causing disease in humans are poorly resolved or unknown. However, poorly known and unknown agents contribute to the global burden of disease and will underlie many future disease risks. Existing patterns of infectious disease co-occurrence could thus play a critical role in resolving or anticipating current and future disease threats. We analyzed the global occurrence patterns of 187 human infectious diseases across 225 countries and seven epidemiological classes (human-specific, zoonotic, vector-borne, non-vector-borne, bacterial, viral, and parasitic) to show that human infectious diseases exhibit distinct spatial grouping patterns at a global scale. We demonstrate, using outbreaks of Ebola virus as a test case, that this spatial structuring provides an untapped source of prior information that could be used to tighten the focus of a range of health-related research and management activities at early stages or in data-poor settings, including disease surveillance, outbreak responses, or optimizing pathogen discovery. In examining the correlates of these spatial patterns, among a range of geographic, epidemiological, environmental, and social factors, mammalian biodiversity was the strongest predictor of infectious disease co-occurrence overall and for six of the seven disease classes examined, giving rise to a striking congruence between global pathogeographic and "Wallacean" zoogeographic patterns. This clear biogeographic signal suggests that infectious disease assemblages remain fundamentally constrained in their distributions by ecological barriers to dispersal or establishment, despite the homogenizing forces of globalization. Pathogeography thus provides an overarching context in which other factors promoting infectious disease emergence and spread are set.

A hydroclimatic model of global fire patterns

Science.gov (United States)

Boer, Matthias

2015-04-01

Satellite-based earth observation is providing an increasingly accurate picture of global fire patterns. The highest fire activity is observed in seasonally dry (sub-)tropical environments of South America, Africa and Australia, but fires occur with varying frequency, intensity and seasonality in almost all biomes on Earth. The particular combination of these fire characteristics, or fire regime, is known to emerge from the combined influences of climate, vegetation, terrain and land use, but has so far proven difficult to reproduce by global models. Uncertainty about the biophysical drivers and constraints that underlie current global fire patterns is propagated in model predictions of how ecosystems, fire regimes and biogeochemical cycles may respond to projected future climates. Here, I present a hydroclimatic model of global fire patterns that predicts the mean annual burned area fraction (F) of 0.25° x 0.25° grid cells as a function of the climatic water balance. Following Bradstock's four-switch model, long-term fire activity levels were assumed to be controlled by fuel productivity rates and the likelihood that the extant fuel is dry enough to burn. The frequency of ignitions and favourable fire weather were assumed to be non-limiting at long time scales. Fundamentally, fuel productivity and fuel dryness are a function of the local water and energy budgets available for the production and desiccation of plant biomass. The climatic water balance summarizes the simultaneous availability of biologically usable energy and water at a site, and may therefore be expected to explain a significant proportion of global variation in F. To capture the effect of the climatic water balance on fire activity I focused on the upper quantiles of F, i.e. the maximum level of fire activity for a given climatic water balance. Analysing GFED4 data for annual burned area together with gridded climate data, I found that nearly 80% of the global variation in the 0.99 quantile of F

Comparison of tests for spatial heterogeneity on data with global clustering patterns and outliers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hachey Mark

2009-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The ability to evaluate geographic heterogeneity of cancer incidence and mortality is important in cancer surveillance. Many statistical methods for evaluating global clustering and local cluster patterns are developed and have been examined by many simulation studies. However, the performance of these methods on two extreme cases (global clustering evaluation and local anomaly (outlier detection has not been thoroughly investigated. Methods We compare methods for global clustering evaluation including Tango's Index, Moran's I, and Oden's I*pop; and cluster detection methods such as local Moran's I and SaTScan elliptic version on simulated count data that mimic global clustering patterns and outliers for cancer cases in the continental United States. We examine the power and precision of the selected methods in the purely spatial analysis. We illustrate Tango's MEET and SaTScan elliptic version on a 1987-2004 HIV and a 1950-1969 lung cancer mortality data in the United States. Results For simulated data with outlier patterns, Tango's MEET, Moran's I and I*pop had powers less than 0.2, and SaTScan had powers around 0.97. For simulated data with global clustering patterns, Tango's MEET and I*pop (with 50% of total population as the maximum search window had powers close to 1. SaTScan had powers around 0.7-0.8 and Moran's I has powers around 0.2-0.3. In the real data example, Tango's MEET indicated the existence of global clustering patterns in both the HIV and lung cancer mortality data. SaTScan found a large cluster for HIV mortality rates, which is consistent with the finding from Tango's MEET. SaTScan also found clusters and outliers in the lung cancer mortality data. Conclusion SaTScan elliptic version is more efficient for outlier detection compared with the other methods evaluated in this article. Tango's MEET and Oden's I*pop perform best in global clustering scenarios among the selected methods. The use of SaTScan for

Avian influenza shedding patterns in waterfowl: implications for surveillance, environmental transmission, and disease spread

Science.gov (United States)

Henaux, Viviane; Samuel, Michael D.

2011-01-01

Despite the recognized importance of fecal/oral transmission of low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) via contaminated wetlands, little is known about the length, quantity, or route of AI virus shed by wild waterfowl. We used published laboratory challenge studies to evaluate the length and quantity of low pathogenic (LP) and highly pathogenic (HP) virus shed via oral and cloacal routes by AI-infected ducks and geese, and how these factors might influence AI epidemiology and virus detection. We used survival analysis to estimate the duration of infection (from virus inoculation to the last day virus was shed) and nonlinear models to evaluate temporal patterns in virus shedding. We found higher mean virus titer and longer median infectious period for LPAI-infected ducks (10–11.5 days in oral and cloacal swabs) than HPAI-infected ducks (5 days) and geese (7.5 days). Based on the median bird infectious dose, we found that environmental contamination is two times higher for LPAI- than HPAI-infectious ducks, which implies that susceptible birds may have a higher probability of infection during LPAI than HPAI outbreaks. Less environmental contamination during the course of infection and previously documented shorter environmental persistence for HPAI than LPAI suggest that the environment is a less favorable reservoir for HPAI. The longer infectious period, higher virus titers, and subclinical infections with LPAI viruses favor the spread of these viruses by migratory birds in comparison to HPAI. Given the lack of detection of HPAI viruses through worldwide surveillance, we suggest monitoring for AI should aim at improving our understanding of AI dynamics (in particular, the role of the environment and immunity) using long-term comprehensive live bird, serologic, and environmental sampling at targeted areas. Our findings on LPAI and HPAI shedding patterns over time provide essential information to parameterize environmental transmission and virus spread in predictive

Analysis of Roanoke Region Weather Patterns Under Global Teleconnections

OpenAIRE

LaRocque, Eric John

2006-01-01

This work attempts to relate global teleconnections, through physical phenomena such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Artic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern to synoptic-scale weather patterns and precipitation in the Roanoke, Virginia region. The first chapter describes the behavior of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by implementing non-homogeneous and homogeneous Markov Chain models on a monthly time series o...

Coupled local facilitation and global hydrologic inhibition drive landscape geometry in a patterned peatland

Science.gov (United States)

Acharya, S.; Kaplan, D. A.; Casey, S.; Cohen, M. J.; Jawitz, J. W.

2015-05-01

Self-organized landscape patterning can arise in response to multiple processes. Discriminating among alternative patterning mechanisms, particularly where experimental manipulations are untenable, requires process-based models. Previous modeling studies have attributed patterning in the Everglades (Florida, USA) to sediment redistribution and anisotropic soil hydraulic properties. In this work, we tested an alternate theory, the self-organizing-canal (SOC) hypothesis, by developing a cellular automata model that simulates pattern evolution via local positive feedbacks (i.e., facilitation) coupled with a global negative feedback based on hydrology. The model is forced by global hydroperiod that drives stochastic transitions between two patch types: ridge (higher elevation) and slough (lower elevation). We evaluated model performance using multiple criteria based on six statistical and geostatistical properties observed in reference portions of the Everglades landscape: patch density, patch anisotropy, semivariogram ranges, power-law scaling of ridge areas, perimeter area fractal dimension, and characteristic pattern wavelength. Model results showed strong statistical agreement with reference landscapes, but only when anisotropically acting local facilitation was coupled with hydrologic global feedback, for which several plausible mechanisms exist. Critically, the model correctly generated fractal landscapes that had no characteristic pattern wavelength, supporting the invocation of global rather than scale-specific negative feedbacks.

Global patterns of fragmentation and connectivity of mammalian carnivore habitat

OpenAIRE

Crooks, Kevin R.; Burdett, Christopher L.; Theobald, David M.; Rondinini, Carlo; Boitani, Luigi

2011-01-01

Although mammalian carnivores are vulnerable to habitat fragmentation and require landscape connectivity, their global patterns of fragmentation and connectivity have not been examined. We use recently developed high-resolution habitat suitability models to conduct comparative analyses and to identify global hotspots of fragmentation and connectivity for the world's terrestrial carnivores. Species with less fragmentation (i.e. more interior high-quality habitat) had larger geographical ranges...

Hybrid epidemic spreading - from Internet worms to HIV infection

OpenAIRE

Zhang, C.

2015-01-01

Epidemic phenomena are ubiquitous, ranging from infectious diseases, computer viruses, to information dissemination. Epidemics have traditionally been studied as a single spreading process, either in a fully mixed population or on a network. Many epidemics, however, are hybrid, employing more than one spreading mechanism. For example, the Internet worm Conficker spreads locally targeting neighbouring computers in local networks as well as globally by randomly probing any computer on the Inter...

Global Dispersal Pattern of HIV Type 1 Subtype CRF01_AE: A Genetic Trace of Human Mobility Related to Heterosexual Sexual Activities Centralized in Southeast Asia.

Science.gov (United States)

Angelis, Konstantinos; Albert, Jan; Mamais, Ioannis; Magiorkinis, Gkikas; Hatzakis, Angelos; Hamouda, Osamah; Struck, Daniel; Vercauteren, Jurgen; Wensing, Annemarie M J; Alexiev, Ivailo; Åsjö, Birgitta; Balotta, Claudia; Camacho, Ricardo J; Coughlan, Suzie; Griskevicius, Algirdas; Grossman, Zehava; Horban, Andrzej; Kostrikis, Leondios G; Lepej, Snjezana; Liitsola, Kirsi; Linka, Marek; Nielsen, Claus; Otelea, Dan; Paredes, Roger; Poljak, Mario; Puchhammer-Stöckl, Elisabeth; Schmit, Jean-Claude; Sönnerborg, Anders; Staneková, Danica; Stanojevic, Maja; Boucher, Charles A B; Kaplan, Lauren; Vandamme, Anne-Mieke; Paraskevis, Dimitrios

2015-06-01

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) subtype CRF01_AE originated in Africa and then passed to Thailand, where it established a major epidemic. Despite the global presence of CRF01_AE, little is known about its subsequent dispersal pattern. We assembled a global data set of 2736 CRF01_AE sequences by pooling sequences from public databases and patient-cohort studies. We estimated viral dispersal patterns, using statistical phylogeographic analysis run over bootstrap trees estimated by the maximum likelihood method. We show that Thailand has been the source of viral dispersal to most areas worldwide, including 17 of 20 sampled countries in Europe. Japan, Singapore, Vietnam, and other Asian countries have played a secondary role in the viral dissemination. In contrast, China and Taiwan have mainly imported strains from neighboring Asian countries, North America, and Africa without any significant viral exportation. The central role of Thailand in the global spread of CRF01_AE can be probably explained by the popularity of Thailand as a vacation destination characterized by sex tourism and by Thai emigration to the Western world. Our study highlights the unique case of CRF01_AE, the only globally distributed non-B clade whose global dispersal did not originate in Africa. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Molecular phylogeography of canine distemper virus: Geographic origin and global spreading.

Science.gov (United States)

Panzera, Yanina; Sarute, Nicolás; Iraola, Gregorio; Hernández, Martín; Pérez, Ruben

2015-11-01

Canine distemper virus (CDV) (Paramyxoviridae-Morbillivirus) is a worldwide spread virus causing a fatal systemic disease in a broad range of carnivore hosts. In this study we performed Bayesian inferences using 208 full-length hemagglutinin gene nucleotide sequences isolated in 16 countries during 37 years (1975-2011). The estimated time to the most recent common ancestor suggested that current CDV strains emerged in the United States in the 1880s. This ancestor diversified through time into two ancestral clades, the current America 1 lineage that recently spread to Asia, and other ancestral clade that diversified and spread worldwide to originate the remaining eight lineages characterized to date. The spreading of CDV was characterized by several migratory events with posterior local differentiation, and expansion of the virus host range. A significant genetic flow between domestic and wildlife hosts is displayed; being domestic hosts the main viral reservoirs worldwide. This study is an extensive and integrative description of spatio/temporal population dynamics of CDV lineages that provides a novel evolutionary paradigm about the origin and dissemination of the current strains of the virus. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Spread of edema with brain tumors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hosoya, Takaaki

1987-01-01

Cerebral edema associated with brain tumors is visualized on CT as a hypodensity lesion involving mainly the white matter. The detailed features of its evolution were investigated in a review of CT examinations performed on 56 patients with brain tumors, with the following results. 1. The susceptibility to edema varied according to the types of fibers. Association fibers were more sensitive to edema than projection and commissural fibers. 2. The edema had a characteristic of spreading along not only the association fibers but also the projection and commissural fibers. 3. The spread of edema along the association fibers was interupted in sites of convergence of the fibers such as the external capsule and just beneath the central sulcus in the certrum semiovale. 4. In some cases with intra-axial tumors, the edema extended mainly in the projection and commissural fibers considered to be more resistant to it. For example, in cases with parietal and temporal intra-axial tumors, the posterior limb of the internal capsule was often more edematous than the external capsule. 5. The edema associated with meningioma had a characteristic of spreading mainly along the association fibers. When situated close to the corpus callosum, however, the commissural fibers were also involved. Edema extending mainly in the internal capsule, thus, was rarely observed in meningioma. 6. There was unique pattern of spread of edema in frontal tumors, which differentiated their CT pattern. Therefore, the location of the tumor could be correctly diagnosed by the pattern of the edema extension, even near the central sulcus or in the operculum region. (author)

Regime-dependent determinants of Euro area sovereign CDS spreads

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Blommestein, H.J.; Eijffinger, Sylvester; Qian, Zongxin

We study the determinants of sovereign CDS spreads of five Euro area countries (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain) after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. We find that global and/or European Monetary Union (EMU)-wide factors are the main drivers of changes in the sovereign CDS spreads in

The Globalization of Food Systems: A Conceptual Framework and Empirical Patterns

OpenAIRE

Senauer, Benjamin; Venturini, Luciano

2005-01-01

This paper discusses a number of stylized facts and empirical patterns regarding agri-food trade flows as well as foreign direct investments in food processing and retailing. This evidence supports the hypothesis of an increasingly global food system. We identify the main factors at work such as push/supply side, pull/demand-side, and enabling/external factors. We show how the shift from national to global retailing is a recent phenomenon whose relevance for the globalization of upstream sect...

Social networks and spreading of epidemics

Science.gov (United States)

Trimper, Steffen; Zheng, Dafang; Brandau, Marian

2004-05-01

Epidemiological processes are studied within a recently proposed social network model using the susceptible-infected-refractory dynamics (SIR) of an epidemic. Within the network model, a population of individuals may be characterized by H independent hierarchies or dimensions, each of which consists of groupings of individuals into layers of subgroups. Detailed numerical simulations reveals that for H > 1, the global spreading results regardless of the degree of homophily α of the individuals forming a social circle. For H = 1, a transition from a global to a local spread occurs as the population becomes decomposed into increasingly homophilous groups. Multiple dimensions in classifying individuals (nodes) thus make a society (computer network) highly susceptible to large scale outbreaks of infectious diseases (viruses). The SIR-model can be extended by the inclusion of waiting times resulting in modified distribution function of the recovered.

Spread of endemic disease and global change in an educational project: proposition of relationships developed in a twin partnership

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michela Viale

2012-07-01

Full Text Available The sudden event of the spread of dengue fever (or break-bone fever that appeared for the first time in Cape Verde in 2009 revealed that inappropriate management of waste can be considered a major cause of the spread of this disease. Dengue fever is a tropical infectious disease that is caused by the dengue virus. Its vector, the mosquito Aedes aegypti, found an optimal environment for its life cycle in the context of Cape Verde, with the persistence of water in abandoned waste objects. The connection between the topics of Earth sciences and the spread of this disease is not obvious, but it was explored and illustrated in a school partnership. Activities with pupils and students provided an opportunity to investigate how some global phenomena, like climate change (with an increase in local rainfall and higher temperatures, are related to local events, such as the spread of dengue fever. Preventive strategies are conditioned by the geomorphology of the territory and by the complex relationships that connect the geosphere and the biosphere. For this reason, it is important to be aware of the risk of breaking these delicate balances, and hence activating unexpected consequences. The roles played by both partners linked knowledge about the natural dynamics of our planet with the development of appropriate behavior, thus contributing to the formation of responsible citizenship, to preserve and protect the environment. The partnership encouraged students to develop sustainable management strategies against dengue fever, and consequently against waste, actively involving them at school, at home, and in their community. In this study, we present a case study of the role of a school partnership in a complex problem, such as the spread of dengue fever and environmental pollution.

Neural Global Pattern Similarity Underlies True and False Memories.

Science.gov (United States)

Ye, Zhifang; Zhu, Bi; Zhuang, Liping; Lu, Zhonglin; Chen, Chuansheng; Xue, Gui

2016-06-22

The neural processes giving rise to human memory strength signals remain poorly understood. Inspired by formal computational models that posit a central role of global matching in memory strength, we tested a novel hypothesis that the strengths of both true and false memories arise from the global similarity of an item's neural activation pattern during retrieval to that of all the studied items during encoding (i.e., the encoding-retrieval neural global pattern similarity [ER-nGPS]). We revealed multiple ER-nGPS signals that carried distinct information and contributed differentially to true and false memories: Whereas the ER-nGPS in the parietal regions reflected semantic similarity and was scaled with the recognition strengths of both true and false memories, ER-nGPS in the visual cortex contributed solely to true memory. Moreover, ER-nGPS differences between the parietal and visual cortices were correlated with frontal monitoring processes. By combining computational and neuroimaging approaches, our results advance a mechanistic understanding of memory strength in recognition. What neural processes give rise to memory strength signals, and lead to our conscious feelings of familiarity? Using fMRI, we found that the memory strength of a given item depends not only on how it was encoded during learning, but also on the similarity of its neural representation with other studied items. The global neural matching signal, mainly in the parietal lobule, could account for the memory strengths of both studied and unstudied items. Interestingly, a different global matching signal, originated from the visual cortex, could distinguish true from false memories. The findings reveal multiple neural mechanisms underlying the memory strengths of events registered in the brain. Copyright © 2016 the authors 0270-6474/16/366792-11$15.00/0.

Food, Populations and Health — global Patterns and Challenges

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

2016-01-01

The present volume is based on presentations at a symposium at the Royal Danish Academy of Sciences and Letters in September 2014 with the title Food, Population and Health – global Patterns and Challenges. Food has played a fundamental role in the history of all societies over the World. Availab...

The impact of awareness on epidemic spreading in networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Qingchu; Fu, Xinchu; Small, Michael; Xu, Xin-Jian

2012-03-01

We explore the impact of awareness on epidemic spreading through a population represented by a scale-free network. Using a network mean-field approach, a mathematical model for epidemic spreading with awareness reactions is proposed and analyzed. We focus on the role of three forms of awareness including local, global, and contact awareness. By theoretical analysis and simulation, we show that the global awareness cannot decrease the likelihood of an epidemic outbreak while both the local awareness and the contact awareness can. Also, the influence degree of the local awareness on disease dynamics is closely related with the contact awareness.

Towards global patterns in the diversity and community structure of ectomycorrhizal fungi

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tedersoo, Leho; Bahram, Mohammad; Toots, Märt

2012-01-01

Global species richness patterns of soil micro-organisms remain poorly understood compared to macro-organisms. We use a global analysis to disentangle the global determinants of diversity and community composition for ectomycorrhizal (EcM) fungi—microbial symbionts that play key roles in plant...... nutrition in most temperate and many tropical forest ecosystems. Host plant family has the strongest effect on the phylogenetic community composition of fungi, whereas temperature and precipitation mostly affect EcM fungal richness that peaks in the temperate and boreal forest biomes, contrasting...... with latitudinal patterns of macro-organisms. Tropical ecosystems experience rapid turnover of organic material and have weak soil stratification, suggesting that poor habitat conditions may contribute to the relatively low richness of EcM fungi, and perhaps other soil biota, in most tropical ecosystems. For EcM...

REGIME SWITCHING DETERMINANTS OF SOVEREIGN CDS SPREADS: EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Umurcan Polat

2017-12-01

Full Text Available In this study, it is assessed the main determinants of sovereign CDS spreads in Turkey from January 2006 to December 2015. Before delving into the nonlinear Markov regime-switching model estimation, a conventional one-state linear model is estimated answering to what extent the sovereign credit risk is affected in between global and country-specific market variables and by credit ratings announcement changes. In broad strokes, the regime-switching analysis reveals that among domestic variables, it is the foreign exchange rate that affects the sovereign credit risk more in more volatile periods and among global variables, the indicators standing for global volatility risk premiums and international liquidity primarily influence the changes in the sovereign CDS spread in turbulent regimes whereas proxies for global risk free rate are significant more in tranquil regimes.

Modelling unidirectional liquid spreading on slanted microposts

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cavalli, Andrea; Blow, Matthew L.; Yeomans, Julia M.

2013-01-01

A lattice Boltzmann algorithm is used to simulate the slow spreading of drops on a surface patterned with slanted micro-posts. Gibb's pinning of the interface on the sides or top of the posts leads to unidirectional spreading over a wide range of contact angles and inclination angles of the posts....... Regimes for spreading in no, one or two directions are identified, and shown to agree well with a two-dimensional theory proposed in Chu, Xiao and Wang. A more detailed numerical analysis of the contact line shapes allows us to understand deviations from the two dimensional model, and to identify...

Over the hills and further away from coast: global geospatial patterns of human and environment over the 20th-21st centuries

Science.gov (United States)

Kummu, Matti; de Moel, Hans; Salvucci, Gianluigi; Viviroli, Daniel; Ward, Philip J.; Varis, Olli

2016-03-01

Proximity to the coast and elevation are important geographical considerations for human settlement. Little is known, however, about how spatial variation in these factors exactly relates to human settlements and activities, and how this has developed over time. Such knowledge is important for identifying vulnerable regions that are at risk from phenomena such as food shortages and water stress. Human activities are a key driving force in global change, and thus detailed information on population distribution is an important input to any research framework on global change. In this paper we assess the global geospatial patterns of the distribution of human population and related factors, with regard to the altitude above sea level and proximity to the coast. The investigated factors are physical conditions, urbanisation, agricultural practices, economy, and environmental stress. An important novel element in this study, is that we included the temporal evolution in various factors related to human settlements and agricultural practices over the 20th century, and used projections for some of these factors up to the year 2050. We found population pressure in the proximity of the coast to be somewhat greater than was found in other studies. Yet, the distribution of population, urbanisation and wealth are evolving to become more evenly spread across the globe than they were in the past. Therefore, the commonly believed tendency of accumulation of people and wealth along coasts is not supported by our results. At the same time, food production is becoming increasingly decoupled from the trends in population density. Croplands are spreading from highly populated coastal zones towards inland zones. Our results thus indicate that even though people and wealth continue to accumulate in proximity to the coast, population densities and economic productivity are becoming less diverse in relation to elevation and distance from the coast.

Global patterns of drought recovery

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schwalm, Christopher R.; Anderegg, William R. L.; Michalak, Anna M.; Fisher, Joshua B.; Biondi, Franco; Koch, George; Litvak, Marcy; Ogle, Kiona; Shaw, John D.; Wolf, Adam; Huntzinger, Deborah N.; Schaefer, Kevin; Cook, Robert; Wei, Yaxing; Fang, Yuanyuan; Hayes, Daniel; Huang, Maoyi; Jain, Atul; Tian, Hanqin

2017-08-09

Drought is a recurring multi-factor phenomenon with major impacts on natural and human systems1-3. Drought is especially important for land carbon sink variability, influencing climate regulation of the terrestrial biosphere4. While 20th Century trends in drought regime are ambiguous, “more extreme extremes” as well as more frequent and severe droughts3,7 are expected in the 21st Century. Recovery time, the length of time an ecosystem requires to revert to its pre-drought functional state, is a critical metric of drought impact. Yet the spatiotemporal patterning and controls of drought recovery are largely unknown. Here we use three distinct global datasets of gross primary productivity to show that across diverse terrestrial ecosystems drought recovery times are driven by biological productivity and biodiversity, with drought length and severity of secondary importance. Recovery time, especially for extreme droughts, and the areal extent of ecosystems in recovery from drought generally increase over the 20th Century, supporting an increase globally in drought impact8. Our results indicate that if future Anthropocene droughts become more widespread as expected, that droughts will become more frequent relative to recovery time. This increases the risk of entering a new regime where vegetation never recovers to its original state and widespread degradation of the land carbon sink ensues.

Regional mantle upwelling on Venus: The Beta-Atla-Themis anomaly and correlation with global tectonic patterns

Science.gov (United States)

Crumpler, L. S.; Head, J. W.; Aubele, Jayne C.

1993-01-01

The morphology and global distribution of volcanic centers and their association with other geological characteristics offers significant insight into the global patterns of geology, tectonic style, thermal state, and interior dynamics of Venus. Magellan data permit the detailed geological interpretation necessary to address questions about interior dynamics of Venus particularly as they reflect relatively physical, chemical, and thermal conditions of the interior. This paper focuses on the distribution of anomalous concentrations of volcanic centers on Venus and regional patterns of tectonic deformation as it may relate to the identification of global internal anomalies, including mantle dynamic, petrological, or thermal patterns.

Assessing the drivers shaping global patterns of urban vegetation landscape structure.

Science.gov (United States)

Dobbs, C; Nitschke, C; Kendal, D

2017-08-15

Vegetation is one of the main resources involve in ecosystem functioning and providing ecosystem services in urban areas. Little is known on the landscape structure patterns of vegetation existing in urban areas at the global scale and the drivers of these patterns. We studied the landscape structure of one hundred cities around the globe, and their relation to demography (population), socioeconomic factors (GDP, Gini Index), climate factors (temperature and rain) and topographic characteristics (altitude, variation in altitude). The data revealed that the best descriptors of landscape structure were amount, fragmentation and spatial distribution of vegetation. Populated cities tend to have less, more fragmented, less connected vegetation with a centre of the city with low vegetation cover. Results also provided insights on the influence of socioeconomics at a global scale, as landscape structure was more fragmented in areas that are economically unequal and coming from emergent economies. This study shows the effects of the social system and climate on urban landscape patterns that gives useful insights for the distribution in the provision of ecosystem services in urban areas and therefore the maintenance of human well-being. This information can support local and global policy and planning which is committing our cities to provide accessible and inclusive green space for all urban inhabitants. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Turing-like structures in a functional model of cortical spreading depression

Science.gov (United States)

Verisokin, A. Yu.; Verveyko, D. V.; Postnov, D. E.

2017-12-01

Cortical spreading depression (CSD) along with migraine waves and spreading depolarization events with stroke or injures are the front-line examples of extreme physiological behaviors of the brain cortex which manifest themselves via the onset and spreading of localized areas of neuronal hyperactivity followed by their depression. While much is known about the physiological pathways involved, the dynamical mechanisms of the formation and evolution of complex spatiotemporal patterns during CSD are still poorly understood, in spite of the number of modeling studies that have been already performed. Recently we have proposed a relatively simple mathematical model of cortical spreading depression which counts the effects of neurovascular coupling and cerebral blood flow redistribution during CSD. In the present study, we address the main dynamical consequences of newly included pathways, namely, the changes in the formation and propagation speed of the CSD front and the pattern formation features in two dimensions. Our most notable finding is that the combination of vascular-mediated spatial coupling with local regulatory mechanisms results in the formation of stationary Turing-like patterns during a CSD event.

[Globalization and infectious diseases].

Science.gov (United States)

Mirski, Tomasz; Bartoszcze, Michał; Bielawska-Drózd, Agata

2011-01-01

Globalization is a phenomenon characteristic of present times. It can be considered in various aspects: economic, environmental changes, demographic changes, as well as the development of new technologies. All these aspects of globalization have a definite influence on the emergence and spread of infectious diseases. Economic aspects ofglobalization are mainly the trade development, including food trade, which has an impact on the spread of food-borne diseases. The environmental changes caused by intensive development of industry, as a result of globalization, which in turn affects human health. The demographic changes are mainly people migration between countries and rural and urban areas, which essentially favors the global spread of many infectious diseases. While technological advances prevents the spread of infections, for example through better access to information, it may also increase the risk, for example through to create opportunities to travel into more world regions, including the endemic regions for various diseases. The phenomenon ofglobalization is also closely associated with the threat of terrorism, including bioterrorism. It forces the governments of many countries to develop effective programs to protect and fight against this threat.

Prediction of DHF disease spreading patterns using inverse distances weighted (IDW), ordinary and universal kriging

Science.gov (United States)

Prasetiyowati, S. S.; Sibaroni, Y.

2018-03-01

Dengue hemorrhagic disease, is a disease caused by the Dengue virus of the Flavivirus genus Flaviviridae family. Indonesia is the country with the highest case of dengue in Southeast Asia. In addition to mosquitoes as vectors and humans as hosts, other environmental and social factors are also the cause of widespread dengue fever. To prevent the occurrence of the epidemic of the disease, fast and accurate action is required. Rapid and accurate action can be taken, if there is appropriate information support on the occurrence of the epidemic. Therefore, a complete and accurate information on the spread pattern of endemic areas is necessary, so that precautions can be done as early as possible. The information on dispersal patterns can be obtained by various methods, which are based on empirical and theoretical considerations. One of the methods used is based on the estimated number of infected patients in a region based on spatial and time. The first step of this research is conducted by predicting the number of DHF patients in 2016 until 2018 based on 2010 to 2015 data using GSTAR (1, 1). In the second phase, the distribution pattern prediction of dengue disease area is conducted. Furthermore, based on the characteristics of DHF epidemic trends, i.e. down, stable or rising, the analysis of distribution patterns of dengue fever distribution areas with IDW and Kriging (ordinary and universal Kriging) were conducted in this study. The difference between IDW and Kriging, is the initial process that underlies the prediction process. Based on the experimental results, it is known that the dispersion pattern of epidemic areas of dengue disease with IDW and Ordinary Kriging is similar in the period of time.

Attribution of Large-Scale Climate Patterns to Seasonal Peak-Flow and Prospects for Prediction Globally

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Donghoon; Ward, Philip; Block, Paul

2018-02-01

Flood-related fatalities and impacts on society surpass those from all other natural disasters globally. While the inclusion of large-scale climate drivers in streamflow (or high-flow) prediction has been widely studied, an explicit link to global-scale long-lead prediction is lacking, which can lead to an improved understanding of potential flood propensity. Here we attribute seasonal peak-flow to large-scale climate patterns, including the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), using streamflow station observations and simulations from PCR-GLOBWB, a global-scale hydrologic model. Statistically significantly correlated climate patterns and streamflow autocorrelation are subsequently applied as predictors to build a global-scale season-ahead prediction model, with prediction performance evaluated by the mean squared error skill score (MSESS) and the categorical Gerrity skill score (GSS). Globally, fair-to-good prediction skill (20% ≤ MSESS and 0.2 ≤ GSS) is evident for a number of locations (28% of stations and 29% of land area), most notably in data-poor regions (e.g., West and Central Africa). The persistence of such relevant climate patterns can improve understanding of the propensity for floods at the seasonal scale. The prediction approach developed here lays the groundwork for further improving local-scale seasonal peak-flow prediction by identifying relevant global-scale climate patterns. This is especially attractive for regions with limited observations and or little capacity to develop flood early warning systems.

Global Patterns of the Isotopic Composition of Soil and Plant Nitrogen

Science.gov (United States)

Amundson, R.; Yoo, K.

2014-12-01

From a societal perspective, soil N follows only soil C in the importance of soil to 21st century environmental issues. Amundson et al (2003) developed a mass balance model for soil N and the ratio of 15N/14N, and provided the first global projections of the spatial patterns of soil and plant δ15N values. It was hypothesized that state factors, particularly climate, should drive broad patterns of soil and plant δ15N values in a manner analogous to the known patterns of total soil N (e.g. Post et al., 1984). At that time, the N isotope data available to explore the effect of individual factors was modest. In the past decade, numerous papers from a broad spectrum of locations have created a rich database that can be used to further refine the initial projections made more than a decade ago. In this paper, hundreds of published measurements will be used to more deeply examine the climatic impacts on soil and plant δ15N values. Additionally, we will focus on the local controls of topography on ecosystem N cycling, which can create local isotopic variation that is similar in magnitude to the global effects of climate. The adoption of process-based models from the hillslope geomorphology community appears to be a powerful tool for explaining some existing data from toposequences, designing new studies of topographic controls on biogeochemistry, and particularly for parameterization in global models. Amundson, R., A.T. Austin, E.A.G. Schuur, K. Yoo, V. Matzek, C. Kendall, A. Uebersax, D. Brenner, and W.T. Baisden. 2003. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 17(1):1031.

Measuring landscape-scale spread and persistence of an invaded submerged plant community from airborne remote sensing.

Science.gov (United States)

Santos, Maria J; Khanna, Shruti; Hestir, Erin L; Greenberg, Jonathan A; Ustin, Susan L

2016-09-01

Processes of spread and patterns of persistence of invasive species affect species and communities in the new environment. Predicting future rates of spread is of great interest for timely management decisions, but this depends on models that rely on understanding the processes of invasion and historic observations of spread and persistence. Unfortunately, the rates of spread and patterns of persistence are difficult to model or directly observe, especially when multiple rates of spread and diverse persistence patterns may be co-occurring over the geographic distribution of the invaded ecosystem. Remote sensing systematically acquires data over large areas at fine spatial and spectral resolutions over multiple time periods that can be used to quantify spread processes and persistence patterns. We used airborne imaging spectroscopy data acquired once a year for 5 years from 2004 to 2008 to map an invaded submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) community across 2220 km 2 of waterways in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, California, USA, and measured its spread rate and its persistence. Submerged aquatic vegetation covered 13-23 km 2 of the waterways (6-11%) every year. Yearly new growth accounted for 40-60% of the SAV area, ~50% of which survived to following year. Spread rates were overall negative and persistence decreased with time. From this dataset, we were able to identify both radial and saltatorial spread of the invaded SAV in the entire extent of the Delta over time. With both decreasing spread rate and persistence, it is possible that over time the invasion of this SAV community could decrease its ecological impact. A landscape-scale approach allows measurements of all invasion fronts and the spatial anisotropies associated with spread processes and persistence patterns, without spatial interpolation, at locations both proximate and distant to the focus of invasion at multiple points in time. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

The spread and effect of HIV-1 infection in sub-Saharan Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Buvé, Anne; Bishikwabo-Nsarhaza, Kizito; Mutangadura, Gladys

2002-06-08

Africa is the continent most severely affected by the global HIV-1 epidemic, with east and southern Africa in general more severely affected than west and central Africa. Differences in the spread of the epidemic can be accounted for by a complex interplay of sexual behaviour and biological factors that affect the probability of HIV-1 transmission per sex act. Sexual behaviour patterns are determined by cultural and socioeconomic contexts. In sub-Saharan Africa, some traditions and socioeconomic developments have contributed to the extensive spread of HIV-1 infection, including the subordinate position of women, impoverishment and decline of social services, rapid urbanisation and modernisation, and wars and conflicts. Populations in many parts of Africa are becoming trapped in a vicious circle as the HIV-1 epidemic leads to high mortality rates in young and economically productive age groups, and thus leads to further impoverishment. Interventions to control HIV-1 should not only target individuals, but also aim to change those aspects of cultural and socioeconomic context that increase the vulnerability to HIV-1 of people and communities.

Sovereign bonds in developing countries: Drivers of issuance and spreads

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrea F. Presbitero

2016-06-01

Full Text Available In the last decade there has been a new wave of sovereign bond issuances in Africa. What determines the ability of developing countries to issue bonds in international capital and what explains the spreads on these bonds? This paper examines these questions using a dataset that includes 105 developing countries during the period 1995–2014. We find that a country is more likely to issue a bond when, in comparison with non-issuing peers, it is larger in economic size, has higher per capita GDP, a lower public debt, and a more effective government. Spreads on sovereign bonds are lower for countries with strong external and fiscal positions, as well as robust economic growth and government effectiveness. We also find that primary spreads for the average Sub-Saharan African issuer are higher than in other regions. With regard to global factors, our results confirm the existing evidence that issuances are more likely during periods of global liquidity and high commodity prices, especially for Sub-Saharan African countries, and spreads are higher in periods of higher market volatility.

Global patterns in mangrove soil carbon stocks and losses

KAUST Repository

Atwood, Trisha B.; Connolly, Rod M.; Almahasheer, Hanan; Carnell, Paul E.; Duarte, Carlos M.; Ewers Lewis, Carolyn J.; Irigoien, Xabier; Kelleway, Jeffrey J.; Lavery, Paul S.; Macreadie, Peter I.; Serrano, Oscar; Sanders, Christian J.; Santos, Isaac; Steven, Andrew D. L.; Lovelock, Catherine E.

2017-01-01

. Global potential CO2 emissions from soils as a result of mangrove loss were estimated to be ~7.0 Tg CO2e yr−1. Countries with the highest potential CO2 emissions from soils are Indonesia (3,410 Gg CO2e yr−1) and Malaysia (1,288 Gg CO2e yr−1). The patterns

Gossip spread in social network Models

Science.gov (United States)

Johansson, Tobias

2017-04-01

Gossip almost inevitably arises in real social networks. In this article we investigate the relationship between the number of friends of a person and limits on how far gossip about that person can spread in the network. How far gossip travels in a network depends on two sets of factors: (a) factors determining gossip transmission from one person to the next and (b) factors determining network topology. For a simple model where gossip is spread among people who know the victim it is known that a standard scale-free network model produces a non-monotonic relationship between number of friends and expected relative spread of gossip, a pattern that is also observed in real networks (Lind et al., 2007). Here, we study gossip spread in two social network models (Toivonen et al., 2006; Vázquez, 2003) by exploring the parameter space of both models and fitting them to a real Facebook data set. Both models can produce the non-monotonic relationship of real networks more accurately than a standard scale-free model while also exhibiting more realistic variability in gossip spread. Of the two models, the one given in Vázquez (2003) best captures both the expected values and variability of gossip spread.

Global equivalent magnetization of the oceanic lithosphere

Science.gov (United States)

Dyment, J.; Choi, Y.; Hamoudi, M.; Lesur, V.; Thebault, E.

2015-11-01

As a by-product of the construction of a new World Digital Magnetic Anomaly Map over oceanic areas, we use an original approach based on the global forward modeling of seafloor spreading magnetic anomalies and their comparison to the available marine magnetic data to derive the first map of the equivalent magnetization over the World's ocean. This map reveals consistent patterns related to the age of the oceanic lithosphere, the spreading rate at which it was formed, and the presence of mantle thermal anomalies which affects seafloor spreading and the resulting lithosphere. As for the age, the equivalent magnetization decreases significantly during the first 10-15 Myr after its formation, probably due to the alteration of crustal magnetic minerals under pervasive hydrothermal alteration, then increases regularly between 20 and 70 Ma, reflecting variations in the field strength or source effects such as the acquisition of a secondary magnetization. As for the spreading rate, the equivalent magnetization is twice as strong in areas formed at fast rate than in those formed at slow rate, with a threshold at ∼40 km/Myr, in agreement with an independent global analysis of the amplitude of Anomaly 25. This result, combined with those from the study of the anomalous skewness of marine magnetic anomalies, allows building a unified model for the magnetic structure of normal oceanic lithosphere as a function of spreading rate. Finally, specific areas affected by thermal mantle anomalies at the time of their formation exhibit peculiar equivalent magnetization signatures, such as the cold Australian-Antarctic Discordance, marked by a lower magnetization, and several hotspots, marked by a high magnetization.

Process contributions to the intermodel spread in amplified Arctic warming

Science.gov (United States)

Boeke, R.; Taylor, P. C.

2016-12-01

The Arctic is warming at a rate more than twice the global average. This robust climate system response to an external forcing is referred to as Arctic Amplification (AA). While Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate models simulate AA, the largest intermodel spread in projected warming is also found in the Arctic. Quantifying the amount of polar warming relative to global warming influences how society adapts to climate change; a 2°C increase in global mean temperature would result in a polar warming between 4-8°C according to the intermodel spread in CMIP5 simulations. A trove of previous work has considered AA diagnostically using variations in the surface energy budget to attribute the intermodel spread in AA to an assortment of feedbacks—surface albedo, cloud, surface turbulent flux, and atmospheric and oceanic energy transport. We consider a systems-thinking approach treating AA as a process that evolves over time. We hypothesize that two specific components of the AA process are most important and influence the intermodel spread. (1) The inability of the Arctic system to effectively remove excess heat sourced from natural variability. The change in the efficiency of the `Arctic air conditioner' is thought to be due to thinner and less extensive sea ice and the resulting ice albedo feedback. (2) The process through which energy is stored in the ocean and exchanged with the atmosphere within the context of the sea ice annual cycle is also important. This study uses CMIP5 simulations from the historical and RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway; an emission scenario with forcing increasing to 8.5 W m-2 by 2100) to analyze how the AA process operates in present and future climate. The intermodel spread in these processes and the influence on the spread in AA are discussed. This approach identifies models that more realistically simulate the AA process and will aid in narrowing intermodel spread in Arctic surface temperature

Epidemic spread in bipartite network by considering risk awareness

Science.gov (United States)

Han, She; Sun, Mei; Ampimah, Benjamin Chris; Han, Dun

2018-02-01

Human awareness plays an important role in the spread of infectious diseases and the control of propagation patterns. Exploring the interplay between human awareness and epidemic spreading is a topic that has been receiving increasing attention. Considering the fact, some well-known diseases only spread between different species we propose a theoretical analysis of the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic spread from the perspective of bipartite network and risk aversion. Using mean field theory, the epidemic threshold is calculated theoretically. Simulation results are consistent with the proposed analytic model. The results show that, the final infection density is negative linear with the value of individuals' risk awareness. Therefore, the epidemic spread could be effectively suppressed by improving individuals' risk awareness.

The Determination of Children's Knowledge of Global Lunar Patterns from Online Essays Using Text Mining Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Cheon, Jongpil; Lee, Sangno; Smith, Walter; Song, Jaeki; Kim, Yongjin

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study was to use text mining analysis of early adolescents' online essays to determine their knowledge of global lunar patterns. Australian and American students in grades five to seven wrote about global lunar patterns they had discovered by sharing observations with each other via the Internet. These essays were analyzed for…

Scale-free correlations in the geographical spreading of obesity

Science.gov (United States)

Gallos, Lazaros; Barttfeld, Pablo; Havlin, Shlomo; Sigman, Mariano; Makse, Hernan

2012-02-01

Obesity levels have been universally increasing. A crucial problem is to determine the influence of global and local drivers behind the obesity epidemic, to properly guide effective policies. Despite the numerous factors that affect the obesity evolution, we show a remarkable regularity expressed in a predictable pattern of spatial long-range correlations in the geographical spreading of obesity. We study the spatial clustering of obesity and a number of related health and economic indicators, and we use statistical physics methods to characterize the growth of the resulting clusters. The resulting scaling exponents allow us to broadly classify these indicators into two separate universality classes, weakly or strongly correlated. Weak correlations are found in generic human activity such as population distribution and the growth of the whole economy. Strong correlations are recovered, among others, for obesity, diabetes, and the food industry sectors associated with food consumption. Obesity turns out to be a global problem where local details are of little importance. The long-range correlations suggest influence that extends to large scales, hinting that the physical model of obesity clustering can be mapped to a long-range correlated percolation process.

Spread of white-nose syndrome on a network regulated by geography and climate.

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Maher, Sean P; Kramer, Andrew M; Pulliam, J Tomlin; Zokan, Marcus A; Bowden, Sarah E; Barton, Heather D; Magori, Krisztian; Drake, John M

2012-01-01

Wildlife and plant diseases can reduce biodiversity, disrupt ecosystem services and threaten human health. Emerging pathogens have displayed a variety of spatial spread patterns due to differences in host ecology, including diffusive spread from an epicentre (West Nile virus), jump dispersal on a network (foot-and-mouth disease), or a combination of these (Sudden oak death). White-nose syndrome is a highly pathogenic infectious disease of bats currently spreading across North America. Understanding how bat ecology influences this spread is crucial to management of infected and vulnerable populations. Here we show that white-nose syndrome spread is not diffusive but rather mediated by patchily distributed habitat and large-scale gradients in winter climate. Simulations predict rapid expansion and infection of most counties with caves in the contiguous United States by winter 2105-2106. Our findings show the unique pattern of white-nose syndrome spread corresponds to ecological traits of the host and suggest hypotheses for transmission mechanisms acting at the local scale.

Mars Global Digital Dune Database (MGD3): Global dune distribution and wind pattern observations

Science.gov (United States)

Hayward, Rosalyn K.; Fenton, Lori; Titus, Timothy N.

2014-01-01

The Mars Global Digital Dune Database (MGD3) is complete and now extends from 90°N to 90°S latitude. The recently released south pole (SP) portion (MC-30) of MGD3 adds ∼60,000 km2 of medium to large-size dark dune fields and ∼15,000 km2 of sand deposits and smaller dune fields to the previously released equatorial (EQ, ∼70,000 km2), and north pole (NP, ∼845,000 km2) portions of the database, bringing the global total to ∼975,000 km2. Nearly all NP dunes are part of large sand seas, while the majority of EQ and SP dune fields are individual dune fields located in craters. Despite the differences between Mars and Earth, their dune and dune field morphologies are strikingly similar. Bullseye dune fields, named for their concentric ring pattern, are the exception, possibly owing their distinctive appearance to winds that are unique to the crater environment. Ground-based wind directions are derived from slipface (SF) orientation and dune centroid azimuth (DCA), a measure of the relative location of a dune field inside a crater. SF and DCA often preserve evidence of different wind directions, suggesting the importance of local, topographically influenced winds. In general however, ground-based wind directions are broadly consistent with expected global patterns, such as polar easterlies. Intriguingly, between 40°S and 80°S latitude both SF and DCA preserve their strongest, though different, dominant wind direction, with transport toward the west and east for SF-derived winds and toward the north and west for DCA-derived winds.

Seasonality of cholera from 1974 to 2005: a review of global patterns

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Feldacker Caryl

2008-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The seasonality of cholera is described in various study areas throughout the world. However, no study examines how temporal cycles of the disease vary around the world or reviews its hypothesized causes. This paper reviews the literature on the seasonality of cholera and describes its temporal cycles by compiling and analyzing 32 years of global cholera data. This paper also provides a detailed literature review on regional patterns and environmental and climatic drivers of cholera patterns. Data, Methods, and Results Cholera data are compiled from 1974 to 2005 from the World Health Organization Weekly Epidemiological Reports, a database that includes all reported cholera cases in 140 countries. The data are analyzed to measure whether season, latitude, and their interaction are significantly associated with the country-level number of outbreaks in each of the 12 preceding months using separate negative binomial regression models for northern, southern, and combined hemispheres. Likelihood ratios tests are used to determine the model of best fit. The results suggest that cholera outbreaks demonstrate seasonal patterns in higher absolute latitudes, but closer to the equator, cholera outbreaks do not follow a clear seasonal pattern. Conclusion The findings suggest that environmental and climatic factors partially control the temporal variability of cholera. These results also indirectly contribute to the growing debate about the effects of climate change and global warming. As climate change threatens to increase global temperature, resulting rises in sea levels and temperatures may influence the temporal fluctuations of cholera, potentially increasing the frequency and duration of cholera outbreaks.

Are child eating patterns being transformed globally?

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Adair, Linda S; Popkin, Barry M

2005-07-01

To examine the extent to which child dietary patterns and trends are changing globally. Diets of children 2 to 19 years of age were studied with nationally representative data from Russia and the United States, nationwide data from China, and regional data from metropolitan Cebu, Philippines. Twenty-four-hour dietary recalls were examined at several points in time to examine trends in calories consumed away from home, snacking behavior, and soft drink and modern fast food consumption. Urban-rural trends were compared. U.S. and Cebu youth consume more than one-third of their daily calories and a higher proportion of snack calories from foods prepared away from home. In contrast, away from home food consumption is minimal in Chinese and Russian children. U.S. and Cebu youth consume about one-fifth of their total daily energy from snacks, but snacks provide a much lower proportion of energy in Russia ( approximately 16%) and China (where snacks provide only approximately 1% of energy). Fast food plays a much more dominant role in the American diet ( approximately 20% of energy vs. 2% to 7% in the other countries), but as yet does not contribute substantially to children's diets in the other countries. Urban-rural differences were found to be important, but narrowing over time, for China and Cebu, whereas they are widening for Russia. This research suggests that globalization of the fast food and other modern food sectors is beginning to affect child eating patterns in several countries undergoing nutrition transition. However, the contribution of fast food and soft drinks to the diet of children remains relatively small in China, Russia, and Cebu, Philippines, relative to the United States.

fMRI orientation decoding in V1 does not require global maps or globally coherent orientation stimuli.

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Alink, Arjen; Krugliak, Alexandra; Walther, Alexander; Kriegeskorte, Nikolaus

2013-01-01

The orientation of a large grating can be decoded from V1 functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data, even at low resolution (3-mm isotropic voxels). This finding has suggested that columnar-level neuronal information might be accessible to fMRI at 3T. However, orientation decodability might alternatively arise from global orientation-preference maps. Such global maps across V1 could result from bottom-up processing, if the preferences of V1 neurons were biased toward particular orientations (e.g., radial from fixation, or cardinal, i.e., vertical or horizontal). Global maps could also arise from local recurrent or top-down processing, reflecting pre-attentive perceptual grouping, attention spreading, or predictive coding of global form. Here we investigate whether fMRI orientation decoding with 2-mm voxels requires (a) globally coherent orientation stimuli and/or (b) global-scale patterns of V1 activity. We used opposite-orientation gratings (balanced about the cardinal orientations) and spirals (balanced about the radial orientation), along with novel patch-swapped variants of these stimuli. The two stimuli of a patch-swapped pair have opposite orientations everywhere (like their globally coherent parent stimuli). However, the two stimuli appear globally similar, a patchwork of opposite orientations. We find that all stimulus pairs are robustly decodable, demonstrating that fMRI orientation decoding does not require globally coherent orientation stimuli. Furthermore, decoding remained robust after spatial high-pass filtering for all stimuli, showing that fine-grained components of the fMRI patterns reflect visual orientations. Consistent with previous studies, we found evidence for global radial and vertical preference maps in V1. However, these were weak or absent for patch-swapped stimuli, suggesting that global preference maps depend on globally coherent orientations and might arise through recurrent or top-down processes related to the perception of

HANPP Collection: Global Patterns in Human Appropriation of Net Primary Productivity (HANPP)

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National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Global Patterns in Human Appropriation of Net Primary Productivity (HANPP) portion of the HANPP Collection represents a digital map of human appropriation of net...

Global control of colored moiré pattern in layered optical structures

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Kunyang; Zhou, Yangui; Pan, Di; Ma, Xueyan; Ma, Hongqin; Liang, Haowen; Zhou, Jianying

2018-05-01

Accurate description of visual effect of colored moiré pattern caused by layered optical structures consisting of gratings and Fresnel lens is proposed in this work. The colored moiré arising from the periodic and quasi-periodic structures is numerically simulated and experimentally verified. It is found that the visibility of moiré pattern generated by refractive optical elements is related to not only the spatial structures of gratings but also the viewing angles. To effectively control the moiré visibility, two constituting gratings are slightly separated. Such scheme is proved to be effective to globally eliminate moiré pattern for displays containing refractive optical films with quasi-periodic structures.

Physical Proximity and Spreading in Dynamic Social Networks

OpenAIRE

Stopczynski, Arkadiusz; Pentland, Alex Sandy; Lehmann, Sune

2015-01-01

Most infectious diseases spread on a dynamic network of human interactions. Recent studies of social dynamics have provided evidence that spreading patterns may depend strongly on detailed micro-dynamics of the social system. We have recorded every single interaction within a large population, mapping out---for the first time at scale---the complete proximity network for a densely-connected system. Here we show the striking impact of interaction-distance on the network structure and dynamics ...

Unifying Viral Genetics and Human Transportation Data to Predict the Global Transmission Dynamics of Human Influenza H3N2

NARCIS (Netherlands)

P. Lemey (Philippe); A. Rambaut (Andrew); T. Bedford (Trevor); R. Faria (Rui); F. Bielejec (Filip); G. Baele (Guy); C.A. Russell (Colin); D.J. Smith (Derek James); O. Pybus (Oliver); K. Brockmann; M.A. Suchard (Marc)

2014-01-01

textabstractInformation on global human movement patterns is central to spatial epidemiological models used to predict the behavior of influenza and other infectious diseases. Yet it remains difficult to test which modes of dispersal drive pathogen spread at various geographic scales using standard

Metabolic and hemodynamic activation of postischemic rat brain by cortical spreading depression.

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Kocher, M

1990-07-01

Following transient ischemia of the brain, the coupling between somatosensory activation and the hemodynamic-metabolic response is abolished for a certain period despite the partial recovery of somatosensory evoked responses. To determine whether this disturbance is due to alterations of the stimulus-induced neuronal excitation or to a breakdown of the coupling mechanisms, cortical spreading depression was used as a metabolic stimulus in rats before and after ischemia. Adult rats were subjected to 30 min of global forebrain ischemia and 3-6 h of recirculation. EEG, cortical direct current (DC) potential, and laser-Doppler flow were continuously recorded. Local CBF (LCBF), local CMRglc (LCMRglc), regional tissue contents of ATP, glucose, and lactate, and regional pH were determined by quantitative autoradiography, substrate-induced bioluminescence, and fluorometry. Amplitude and frequency of the DC shifts did not differ between groups. In control animals, spreading depression induced a 77% rise in cortical glucose consumption, a 66% rise in lactate content, and a drop in tissue pH of 0.3 unit. ATP and glucose contents were not depleted. During the passage of DC shifts, transient increases (less than 2 min) in laser-Doppler flow were observed, followed by a post-spreading depression hypoperfusion. A comparable although less expressed pattern of hemodynamic and metabolic changes was observed in the postischemic rats. Although baseline LCMRglc was depressed after ischemia, it was activated 47% during spreading depression. Lactate increased by 26%, pH decreased by 0.3 unit, and ATP and glucose remained unchanged. The extent of the transient increase in laser-Doppler flow did not differ from that of the control group, and a post-spreading depression hypoperfusion was also found.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

The GLEaMviz computational tool, a publicly available software to explore realistic epidemic spreading scenarios at the global scale

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Quaggiotto Marco

2011-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Computational models play an increasingly important role in the assessment and control of public health crises, as demonstrated during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Much research has been done in recent years in the development of sophisticated data-driven models for realistic computer-based simulations of infectious disease spreading. However, only a few computational tools are presently available for assessing scenarios, predicting epidemic evolutions, and managing health emergencies that can benefit a broad audience of users including policy makers and health institutions. Results We present "GLEaMviz", a publicly available software system that simulates the spread of emerging human-to-human infectious diseases across the world. The GLEaMviz tool comprises three components: the client application, the proxy middleware, and the simulation engine. The latter two components constitute the GLEaMviz server. The simulation engine leverages on the Global Epidemic and Mobility (GLEaM framework, a stochastic computational scheme that integrates worldwide high-resolution demographic and mobility data to simulate disease spread on the global scale. The GLEaMviz design aims at maximizing flexibility in defining the disease compartmental model and configuring the simulation scenario; it allows the user to set a variety of parameters including: compartment-specific features, transition values, and environmental effects. The output is a dynamic map and a corresponding set of charts that quantitatively describe the geo-temporal evolution of the disease. The software is designed as a client-server system. The multi-platform client, which can be installed on the user's local machine, is used to set up simulations that will be executed on the server, thus avoiding specific requirements for large computational capabilities on the user side. Conclusions The user-friendly graphical interface of the GLEaMviz tool, along with its high level

The Impact of Indonesia Sovereign Credit Rating Upgrades and Investment Grade Status on the Sovereign Spread Changes

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Dwi Anggi Novianti

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Getting sovereign credit rating upgrades and achieving investment grade status are main goals for countries in order to gain lower yield spread and cost of borrowing. By using ordinary least square method, this research is aimed to analyze the impact of Indonesia sovereign credit rating up-grade and investment grade status on sovereign spread changes. The result shows that the sovereign credit rating upgrades within speculative grade category and investment grade status for Indonesia do not significantly impact sovereign spread reduction. On the other hand, the global condition, especially global risk appetite, has significant impact to Indonesia sovereign yield spread. The research also indicates that Indonesia macroeconomic fundamentals do not significantly explain the movement of sovereign yield spread. Keywords: Yield spread, sovereign credit rating, investment grade, Indonesia

Spread of carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii global clone 2 in Asia and AbaR-type resistance islands.

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Kim, Dae Hun; Choi, Ji-Young; Kim, Hae Won; Kim, So Hyun; Chung, Doo Ryeon; Peck, Kyong Ran; Thamlikitkul, Visanu; So, Thomas Man-Kit; Yasin, Rohani M D; Hsueh, Po-Ren; Carlos, Celia C; Hsu, Li Yang; Buntaran, Latre; Lalitha, M K; Song, Jae-Hoon; Ko, Kwan Soo

2013-11-01

In this surveillance study, we identified the genotypes, carbapenem resistance determinants, and structural variations of AbaR-type resistance islands among carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii (CRAB) isolates from nine Asian locales. Clonal complex 92 (CC92), corresponding to global clone 2 (GC2), was the most prevalent in most Asian locales (83/108 isolates; 76.9%). CC108, or GC1, was a predominant clone in India. OXA-23 oxacillinase was detected in CRAB isolates from most Asian locales except Taiwan. blaOXA-24 was found in CRAB isolates from Taiwan. AbaR4-type resistance islands, which were divided into six subtypes, were identified in most CRAB isolates investigated. Five isolates from India, Malaysia, Singapore, and Hong Kong contained AbaR3-type resistance islands. Of these, three isolates harbored both AbaR3- and AbaR4-type resistance islands simultaneously. In this study, GC2 was revealed as a prevalent clone in most Asian locales, with the AbaR4-type resistance island predominant, with diverse variants. The significance of this study lies in identifying the spread of global clones of carbapenem-resistant A. baumannii in Asia.

Global patterns of renewable energy innovation, 1990–2009

OpenAIRE

Bayer, Patrick; Dolan, Lindsay; Urpelainen, Johannes

2013-01-01

Cost-effective approaches to mitigating climate change depend on advances in clean energy technologies, such as solar and wind power. Given increased technology innovation in developing countries, led by China, we focus our attention on global patterns of renewable energy innovation. Utilizing highly valuable international patents as our indicator of innovation, we examine the economic and political determinants of energy innovation in 74 countries across the world, 1990–2009. We find that hi...

Allocating Scarce Resources Strategically - An Evaluation and Discussion of the Global Fund's Pattern of Disbursements

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McCoy, David; Kinyua, Kelvin

2012-01-01

Background The Global Fund is under pressure to improve its rationing of financial support. This study describes the GF's pattern of disbursements in relation to total health expenditure (THE), government health expenditure (GHE), income status and the burden of HIV/AIDS, TB and malaria. It also examines the potential for recipient countries to increase domestic public financing for health. Methods This is a cross-sectional study of 104 countries that received Global Fund disbursements in 2009. It analyses data on Global Fund disbursements; health financing indicators; government revenue and expenditure; and burden of disease. Findings Global Fund disbursements made up 0.37% of THE across all 104 countries; but with considerable country variation ranging from 0.002% to 53.4%. Global Fund disbursements to government amounted to 0.47% of GHE across the 104 countries, but again with considerable variation (in three countries more than half of GHE was based on Global Fund support). Although the Global Fund provides progressively more funding for lower income countries on average, there is much variation at the country such that here was no correlation between per capita GF disbursements and per capita THE, nor between per capita GF disbursement to government and per capita GHE. There was only a slight positive correlation between per capita GF disbursement and burden of disease. Several countries with a high degree of 'financial dependency' upon the Fund have the potential to increase levels of domestic financing for health. Discussion The Global Fund can improve its targeting of resources so that it better matches the pattern of global need. To do this it needs to: a) reduce the extent to which funds are allocated on a demand-driven basis; and b) align its funding model to broader health systems financing and patterns of health expenditure beyond the three diseases. PMID:22590496

Allocating scarce resources strategically--an evaluation and discussion of the Global Fund's pattern of disbursements.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David McCoy

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The Global Fund is under pressure to improve its rationing of financial support. This study describes the GF's pattern of disbursements in relation to total health expenditure (THE, government health expenditure (GHE, income status and the burden of HIV/AIDS, TB and malaria. It also examines the potential for recipient countries to increase domestic public financing for health. METHODS: This is a cross-sectional study of 104 countries that received Global Fund disbursements in 2009. It analyses data on Global Fund disbursements; health financing indicators; government revenue and expenditure; and burden of disease. FINDINGS: Global Fund disbursements made up 0.37% of THE across all 104 countries; but with considerable country variation ranging from 0.002% to 53.4%. Global Fund disbursements to government amounted to 0.47% of GHE across the 104 countries, but again with considerable variation (in three countries more than half of GHE was based on Global Fund support. Although the Global Fund provides progressively more funding for lower income countries on average, there is much variation at the country such that here was no correlation between per capita GF disbursements and per capita THE, nor between per capita GF disbursement to government and per capita GHE. There was only a slight positive correlation between per capita GF disbursement and burden of disease. Several countries with a high degree of 'financial dependency' upon the Fund have the potential to increase levels of domestic financing for health. DISCUSSION: The Global Fund can improve its targeting of resources so that it better matches the pattern of global need. To do this it needs to: a reduce the extent to which funds are allocated on a demand-driven basis; and b align its funding model to broader health systems financing and patterns of health expenditure beyond the three diseases.

Large-scale distribution patterns of mangrove nematodes: A global meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Brustolin, Marco C; Nagelkerken, Ivan; Fonseca, Gustavo

2018-05-01

Mangroves harbor diverse invertebrate communities, suggesting that macroecological distribution patterns of habitat-forming foundation species drive the associated faunal distribution. Whether these are driven by mangrove biogeography is still ambiguous. For small-bodied taxa, local factors and landscape metrics might be as important as macroecology. We performed a meta-analysis to address the following questions: (1) can richness of mangrove trees explain macroecological patterns of nematode richness? and (2) do local landscape attributes have equal or higher importance than biogeography in structuring nematode richness? Mangrove areas of Caribbean-Southwest Atlantic, Western Indian, Central Indo-Pacific, and Southwest Pacific biogeographic regions. We used random-effects meta-analyses based on natural logarithm of the response ratio (lnRR) to assess the importance of macroecology (i.e., biogeographic regions, latitude, longitude), local factors (i.e., aboveground mangrove biomass and tree richness), and landscape metrics (forest area and shape) in structuring nematode richness from 34 mangroves sites around the world. Latitude, mangrove forest area, and forest shape index explained 19% of the heterogeneity across studies. Richness was higher at low latitudes, closer to the equator. At local scales, richness increased slightly with landscape complexity and decreased with forest shape index. Our results contrast with biogeographic diversity patterns of mangrove-associated taxa. Global-scale nematode diversity may have evolved independently of mangrove tree richness, and diversity of small-bodied metazoans is probably more closely driven by latitude and associated climates, rather than local, landscape, or global biogeographic patterns.

Three-pattern decomposition of global atmospheric circulation: part I—decomposition model and theorems

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Shujuan; Chou, Jifan; Cheng, Jianbo

2018-04-01

In order to study the interactions between the atmospheric circulations at the middle-high and low latitudes from the global perspective, the authors proposed the mathematical definition of three-pattern circulations, i.e., horizontal, meridional and zonal circulations with which the actual atmospheric circulation is expanded. This novel decomposition method is proved to accurately describe the actual atmospheric circulation dynamics. The authors used the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data to calculate the climate characteristics of those three-pattern circulations, and found that the decomposition model agreed with the observed results. Further dynamical analysis indicates that the decomposition model is more accurate to capture the major features of global three dimensional atmospheric motions, compared to the traditional definitions of Rossby wave, Hadley circulation and Walker circulation. The decomposition model for the first time realized the decomposition of global atmospheric circulation using three orthogonal circulations within the horizontal, meridional and zonal planes, offering new opportunities to study the large-scale interactions between the middle-high latitudes and low latitudes circulations.

Global and Regional Patterns in Riverine Fish Species Richness: A Review

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Thierry Oberdorff

2011-01-01

Full Text Available We integrate the respective role of global and regional factors driving riverine fish species richness patterns, to develop a synthetic model of potential mechanisms and processes generating these patterns. This framework allows species richness to be broken down into different components specific to each spatial extent and to establish links between these components and the processes involved. This framework should help to answer the questions that are currently being asked by society, including the effects of species invasions, habitat loss, or fragmentation and climate change on freshwater biodiversity.

Red brome (Bromus rubens subsp. madritensis) in North America: Possible modes for early introductions, subsequent spread

Science.gov (United States)

Salo, L.F.

2005-01-01

Although invasions by exotic plants have increased dramatically as human travel and commerce have increased, few have been comprehensively described. Understanding the patterns of invasive species spread over space and time will help guide management activities and policy. Tracing the earliest appearances of an exotic plant reveals likely sites of introduction, paving the way for genetic studies to quantify founder events and identify potential source populations. Red brome (Bromus madritensis subsp. rubens) is a Mediterranean winter annual grass that has invaded even relatively undisturbed areas of western North America, where it threatens native plant communities. This study used herbarium records and contemporary published accounts to trace the early introductions and subsequent spread of red brome in western North America. The results challenge the most frequently cited sources describing the early history of this grass and suggest three possible modes for early introductions: the California Gold Rush and Central Valley wheat, southern California shipping, and northern California sheep. Subsequent periods of most rapid spread into new areas, from 1930 to 1942, and of greatest spread into new regions, during the past 50 years, coincide with warm Pacific Decadal Oscillation regimes, which are linked to increased winter precipitation in the southwestern USA and northern Mexico. Global environmental change, including increased atmospheric CO2 levels and N deposition, may be contributing to the success of red brome, relative to native species.

Impact of international and local conditions on sovereign bond spreads: International evidence

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Selma Izadi

2018-03-01

Full Text Available This paper examines the effect of international and domestic factors on the sovereign bond spreads for 22 developed countries in North America, Europe and Pacific Rim regions. First, for all the regions the impact of global factors on the sovereign bond spreads is more intense than regional factors. Second, the findings confirm that for the bond spreads of each region over its domestic government bonds, the countries’ local fundamentals are better determinants of the spreads compared to the spread over US government bonds as a safe haven. Third, the influence of worldwide factors in the Eurozone compared to other regions bond spreads is less. Fourth, the relationship of the market sentiment and the investor risk aversion with the sovereign bond spreads of all regions is positive. Equity market volatility plays significant role in yield speads in international bond markets.

Molecular inference of sources and spreading patterns of Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasites in internally displaced persons settlements in Myanmar-China border area.

Science.gov (United States)

Lo, Eugenia; Zhou, Guofa; Oo, Winny; Lee, Ming-Chieh; Baum, Elisabeth; Felgner, Philip L; Yang, Zhaoqing; Cui, Liwang; Yan, Guiyun

2015-07-01

In Myanmar, civil unrest and establishment of internally displaced persons (IDP) settlement along the Myanmar-China border have impacted malaria transmission. The growing IDP populations raise deep concerns about health impact on local communities. Microsatellite markers were used to examine the source and spreading patterns of Plasmodium falciparum between IDP settlement and surrounding villages in Myanmar along the China border. Genotypic structure of P. falciparum was compared over the past three years from the same area and the demographic history was inferred to determine the source of recent infections. In addition, we examined if border migration is a factor of P. falciparum infections in China by determining gene flow patterns across borders. Compared to local community, the IDP samples showed a reduced and consistently lower genetic diversity over the past three years. A strong signature of genetic bottleneck was detected in the IDP samples. P. falciparum infections from the border regions in China were genetically similar to Myanmar and parasite gene flow was not constrained by geographical distance. Reduced genetic diversity of P. falciparum suggested intense malaria control within the IDP settlement. Human movement was a key factor to the spread of malaria both locally in Myanmar and across the international border. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Turbulent forces within river plumes affect spread

Science.gov (United States)

Bhattacharya, Atreyee

2012-08-01

When rivers drain into oceans through narrow mouths, hydraulic forces squeeze the river water into buoyant plumes that are clearly visible in satellite images. Worldwide, river plumes not only disperse freshwater, sediments, and nutrients but also spread pollutants and organisms from estuaries into the open ocean. In the United States, the Columbia River—the largest river by volume draining into the Pacific Ocean from North America—generates a plume at its mouth that transports juvenile salmon and other fish into the ocean. Clearly, the behavior and spread of river plumes, such as the Columbia River plume, affect the nation's fishing industry as well as the global economy.

Local control of globally competing patterns in coupled Swift-Hohenberg equations

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Becker, Maximilian; Frenzel, Thomas; Niedermayer, Thomas; Reichelt, Sina; Mielke, Alexander; Bär, Markus

2018-04-01

We present analytical and numerical investigations of two anti-symmetrically coupled 1D Swift-Hohenberg equations (SHEs) with cubic nonlinearities. The SHE provides a generic formulation for pattern formation at a characteristic length scale. A linear stability analysis of the homogeneous state reveals a wave instability in addition to the usual Turing instability of uncoupled SHEs. We performed weakly nonlinear analysis in the vicinity of the codimension-two point of the Turing-wave instability, resulting in a set of coupled amplitude equations for the Turing pattern as well as left- and right-traveling waves. In particular, these complex Ginzburg-Landau-type equations predict two major things: there exists a parameter regime where multiple different patterns are stable with respect to each other and that the amplitudes of different patterns interact by local mutual suppression. In consequence, different patterns can coexist in distinct spatial regions, separated by localized interfaces. We identified specific mechanisms for controlling the position of these interfaces, which distinguish what kinds of patterns the interface connects and thus allow for global pattern selection. Extensive simulations of the original SHEs confirm our results.

Global patterns in post-dispersal seed removal by invertebrates and vertebrates.

Science.gov (United States)

Peco, Begoña; Laffan, Shawn W; Moles, Angela T

2014-01-01

It is commonly accepted that species interactions such as granivory are more intense in the tropics. However, this has rarely been tested. A global dataset of post-dispersal seed removal by invertebrates and vertebrates for 79 native plant species from semi-natural and natural terrestrial habitats ranging from 55° N to 45° S, was compiled from the global literature to test the hypothesis that post-dispersal seed removal by invertebrates and vertebrates is more intense at lower latitudes. We also quantified the relationship between post-dispersal seed removal by vertebrates and by invertebrates to global climatic features including temperature, actual evapotranspiration (AET) and rainfall seasonality. Linear mixed effect models were applied to describe the relationships between seed removal and latitude, hemisphere and climatic variables controlling for the effect of seed mass. Post-dispersal seed removal by invertebrates was negatively related to latitude. In contrast, post-dispersal seed removal by vertebrates was positively but weakly related to latitude. Mean annual temperature and actual evapotranspiration were positively related to post-dispersal seed removal by invertebrates, but not to post-dispersal seed removal by vertebrates, which was only marginally negatively related to rainfall seasonality. The inclusion of seed mass improved the fit of all models, but the term for seed mass was not significant in any model. Although a good climatic model for predicting post-dispersal seed predation by vertebrates at the global level was not found, our results suggest different and opposite latitudinal patterns of post-dispersal seed removal by invertebrates vs vertebrates. This is the first time that a negative relationship between post-dispersal seed removal by invertebrates and latitude, and a positive relationship with temperature and AET have been documented at a global-scale. These results have important implications for understanding global patterns in plant

Patterns of Primary Tumor Invasion and Regional Lymph Node Spread Based on Magnetic Resonance Imaging in Early-Stage Nasal NK/T-cell Lymphoma: Implications for Clinical Target Volume Definition and Prognostic Significance

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wu, Run-Ye [Department of Radiation Oncology, National Cancer Center/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing (China); Liu, Kang [Department of Imaging Diagnosis, National Cancer Center/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing (China); Wang, Wei-Hu; Jin, Jing; Song, Yong-Wen; Wang, Shu-Lian; Liu, Yue-Ping; Ren, Hua; Fang, Hui; Liu, Qing-Feng; Yang, Yong; Chen, Bo; Qi, Shu-Nan; Lu, Ning-Ning; Tang, Yu; Tang, Yuan; Li, Ning [Department of Radiation Oncology, National Cancer Center/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing (China); Ouyang, Han [Department of Imaging Diagnosis, National Cancer Center/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing (China); Li, Ye-Xiong, E-mail: yexiong12@163.com [Department of Radiation Oncology, National Cancer Center/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing (China)

2017-01-01

Purpose: This study aimed to determine the pathways of primary tumor invasion (PTI) and regional lymph node (LN) spread based on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in early-stage nasal NK/T-cell lymphoma (NKTCL), to improve clinical target volume (CTV) delineation and evaluate the prognostic value of locoregional extension patterns. Methods and Materials: A total of 105 patients with newly diagnosed early-stage nasal NKTCL who underwent pretreatment MRI were retrospectively reviewed. All patients received radiation therapy with or without chemotherapy. Results: The incidences of PTI and regional LN involvement were 64.7% and 25.7%, respectively. Based on the incidence of PTI, involved sites surrounding the nasal cavity were classified into 3 risk subgroups: high-risk (>20%), intermediate-risk (5%-20%), and low-risk (<5%). The most frequently involved site was the nasopharynx (35.2%), followed by the maxillary (21.9%) and ethmoid (21.9%) sinuses. Local disease and regional LN spread followed an orderly pattern without LN skipping. The retropharyngeal nodes (RPNs) were most frequently involved (19.0%), followed by level II (11.4%). The 5-year overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and locoregional control (LRC) rates for all patients were 72.8%, 65.2%, and 90.0%, respectively. The presence of PTI and regional LN involvement based on MRI significantly and negatively affected PFS and OS. Conclusions: Early-stage nasal NKTCL presents with a high incidence of PTI but a relatively low incidence of regional LN spread. Locoregional spread followed an orderly pattern, and PTI and regional LN spread are powerful prognostic factors for poorer survival outcomes. CTV reduction may be feasible for selected patients.

Dynamical Model about Rumor Spreading with Medium

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Xiaxia Zhao

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Rumor is a kind of social remark, that is untrue, and not be confirmed, and spreads on a large scale in a short time. Usually, it can induce a cloud of pressure, anxiety, and panic. Traditionally, it is propagated by word of mouth. Nowadays, with the emergence of the internet, rumors can be spread by instant messengers, emails, or publishing. With this new pattern of spreading, an ISRW dynamical model considering the medium as a subclass is established. Beside the dynamical analysis of the model, we mainly explore the mechanism of spreading of individuals-to-individuals and medium-to-individual. By numerical simulation, we find that if we want to control the rumor spreading, it will not only need to control the rate of change of the spreader subclass, but also need to control the change of the information about rumor in medium which has larger influence. Moreover, to control the effusion of rumor is more important than deleting existing information about rumor. On the one hand, government should enhance the management of internet. On the other hand, relevant legal institutions for punishing the rumor creator and spreader on internet who can be tracked should be established. Using this way, involved authorities can propose efficient measures to control the rumor spreading to keep the stabilization of society and development of economy.

The Influence of Low-carbon Economy on Global Trade Pattern

Science.gov (United States)

Xiao-jing, Guo

Since global warming has seriously endangered the living environment of human being and their health and safety, the development of low-carbon economy has become an irreversible global trend. Under the background of economic globalization, low-carbon economy will surely exert a significant impact on global trade pattern. Countries are paying more and more attention to the green trade. The emission permits trade of carbon between the developed countries and the developing countries has become more mature than ever. The carbon tariff caused by the distribution of the "big cake" will make the low-cost advantage in developing countries cease to exist, which will, in turn, affect the foreign trade, economic development, employment and people's living in developing countries. Therefore, under the background of this trend, we should perfect the relevant laws and regulations on trade and environment as soon as possible, optimize trade structure, promote greatly the development of service trade, transform thoroughly the mode of development in foreign trade, take advantage of the international carbon trading market by increasing the added value of export products resulted from technological innovation to achieve mutual benefit and win-win results and promote common development.

Global Delivery Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Manning, Stephan; Larsen, Marcus M.; Bharati, Pratyush

2013-01-01

This article examines antecedents and performance implications of global delivery models (GDMs) in global business services. GDMs require geographically distributed operations to exploit both proximity to clients and time-zone spread for efficient service delivery. We propose and empirically show...

A model of spreading of sudden events on social networks

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Wu, Jiao; Zheng, Muhua; Zhang, Zi-Ke; Wang, Wei; Gu, Changgui; Liu, Zonghua

2018-03-01

Information spreading has been studied for decades, but its underlying mechanism is still under debate, especially for those ones spreading extremely fast through the Internet. By focusing on the information spreading data of six typical events on Sina Weibo, we surprisingly find that the spreading of modern information shows some new features, i.e., either extremely fast or slow, depending on the individual events. To understand its mechanism, we present a susceptible-accepted-recovered model with both information sensitivity and social reinforcement. Numerical simulations show that the model can reproduce the main spreading patterns of the six typical events. By this model, we further reveal that the spreading can be speeded up by increasing either the strength of information sensitivity or social reinforcement. Depending on the transmission probability and information sensitivity, the final accepted size can change from continuous to discontinuous transition when the strength of the social reinforcement is large. Moreover, an edge-based compartmental theory is presented to explain the numerical results. These findings may be of significance on the control of information spreading in modern society.

A lattice model for influenza spreading.

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Antonella Liccardo

Full Text Available We construct a stochastic SIR model for influenza spreading on a D-dimensional lattice, which represents the dynamic contact network of individuals. An age distributed population is placed on the lattice and moves on it. The displacement from a site to a nearest neighbor empty site, allows individuals to change the number and identities of their contacts. The dynamics on the lattice is governed by an attractive interaction between individuals belonging to the same age-class. The parameters, which regulate the pattern dynamics, are fixed fitting the data on the age-dependent daily contact numbers, furnished by the Polymod survey. A simple SIR transmission model with a nearest neighbors interaction and some very basic adaptive mobility restrictions complete the model. The model is validated against the age-distributed Italian epidemiological data for the influenza A(H1N1 during the [Formula: see text] season, with sensible predictions for the epidemiological parameters. For an appropriate topology of the lattice, we find that, whenever the accordance between the contact patterns of the model and the Polymod data is satisfactory, there is a good agreement between the numerical and the experimental epidemiological data. This result shows how rich is the information encoded in the average contact patterns of individuals, with respect to the analysis of the epidemic spreading of an infectious disease.

Spreading depolarizations and late secondary insults after traumatic brain injury

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hartings, Jed A; Strong, Anthony J; Fabricius, Martin

2009-01-01

Here we investigated the incidence of cortical spreading depolarizations (spreading depression and peri-infarct depolarization) after traumatic brain injury (TBI) and their relationship to systemic physiologic values during neurointensive care. Subdural electrode strips were placed on peri......-contusional cortex in 32 patients who underwent surgical treatment for TBI. Prospective electrocorticography was performed during neurointensive care with retrospective analysis of hourly nursing chart data. Recordings were 84 hr (median) per patient and 2,503 hr in total. In 17 patients (53%), 280 spreading...... depolarizations (spreading depressions and peri-infarct depolarizations) were observed. Depolarizations occurred in a bimodal pattern with peak incidence on days 1 and 7. The probability of a depolarization occurring increased significantly as a function of declining mean arterial pressure (MAP; R(2) = 0.78; p...

Various oscillation patterns in phase models with locally attractive and globally repulsive couplings.

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Sato, Katsuhiko; Shima, Shin-ichiro

2015-10-01

We investigate a phase model that includes both locally attractive and globally repulsive coupling in one dimension. This model exhibits nontrivial spatiotemporal patterns that have not been observed in systems that contain only local or global coupling. Depending on the relative strengths of the local and global coupling and on the form of global coupling, the system can show a spatially uniform state (in-phase synchronization), a monotonically increasing state (traveling wave), and three types of oscillations of relative phase difference. One of the oscillations of relative phase difference has the characteristic of being locally unstable but globally attractive. That is, any small perturbation to the periodic orbit in phase space destroys its periodic motion, but after a long time the system returns to the original periodic orbit. This behavior is closely related to the emergence of saddle two-cluster states for global coupling only, which are connected to each other by attractive heteroclinic orbits. The mechanism of occurrence of this type of oscillation is discussed.

Global patterns of NDVI-indicated vegetation extremes and their sensitivity to climate extremes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu Guo; Liu Hongyan; Yin Yi

2013-01-01

Extremes in climate have significant impacts on ecosystems and are expected to increase under future climate change. Extremes in vegetation could capture such impacts and indicate the vulnerability of ecosystems, but currently have not received a global long-term assessment. In this study, a robust method has been developed to detect significant extremes (low values) in biweekly time series of global normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from 1982 to 2006 and thus to acquire a global pattern of vegetation extreme frequency. This pattern coincides with vegetation vulnerability patterns suggested by earlier studies using different methods over different time spans, indicating a consistent mechanism of regulation. Vegetation extremes were found to aggregate in Amazonia and in the semi-arid and semi-humid regions in low and middle latitudes, while they seldom occurred in high latitudes. Among the environmental variables studied, extreme low precipitation has the highest slope against extreme vegetation. For the eight biomes analyzed, these slopes are highest in temperate broadleaf forest and temperate grassland, suggesting a higher sensitivity in these environments. The results presented here contradict the hypothesis that vegetation in water-limited semi-arid and semi-humid regions might be adapted to drought and suggest that vegetation in these regions (especially temperate broadleaf forest and temperate grassland) is highly prone to vegetation extreme events under more severe precipitation extremes. It is also suggested here that more attention be paid to precipitation-induced vegetation changes than to temperature-induced events. (letter)

Avian Influenza spread and transmission dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Bourouiba, Lydia; Gourley, Stephen A.; Liu, Rongsong; Takekawa, John Y.; Wu, Jianhong; Chen, Dongmei; Moulin, Bernard; Wu, Jianhong

2015-01-01

The spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses of type A of subtype H5N1 has been a serious threat to global public health. Understanding the roles of various (migratory, wild, poultry) bird species in the transmission of these viruses is critical for designing and implementing effective control and intervention measures. Developing appropriate models and mathematical techniques to understand these roles and to evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation strategies have been a challenge. Recent development of the global health surveillance (especially satellite tracking and GIS techniques) and the mathematical theory of dynamical systems combined have gradually shown the promise of some cutting-edge methodologies and techniques in mathematical biology to meet this challenge.

Antibiotic resistance as a global threat: Evidence from China, Kuwait and the United States

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Rotimi Vincent

2006-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Antimicrobial resistance is an under-appreciated threat to public health in nations around the globe. With globalization booming, it is important to understand international patterns of resistance. If countries already experience similar patterns of resistance, it may be too late to worry about international spread. If large countries or groups of countries that are likely to leap ahead in their integration with the rest of the world – China being the standout case – have high and distinctive patterns of resistance, then a coordinated response could substantially help to control the spread of resistance. The literature to date provides only limited evidence on these issues. Methods We study the recent patterns of antibiotic resistance in three geographically separated, and culturally and economically distinct countries – China, Kuwait and the United States – to gauge the range and depth of this global health threat, and its potential for growth as globalization expands. Our primary measures are the prevalence of resistance of specific bacteria to specific antibiotics. We also propose and illustrate methods for aggregating specific "bug-drug" data. We use these aggregate measures to summarize the resistance pattern for each country and to study the extent of correlation between countries' patterns of drug resistance. Results We find that China has the highest level of antibiotic resistance, followed by Kuwait and the U.S. In a study of resistance patterns of several most common bacteria in China in 1999 and 2001, the mean prevalence of resistance among hospital-acquired infections was as high as 41% (with a range from 23% to 77% and that among community- acquired infections was 26% (with a range from 15% to 39%. China also has the most rapid growth rate of resistance (22% average growth in a study spanning 1994 to 2000. Kuwait is second (17% average growth in a period from 1999 to 2003, and the U.S. the lowest (6% from

Information Spreading in Epidemics and in Communication Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Uekermann, Florian Philipp

The PhD thesis revolves mainly around models of disease spreading and human behavior. We present models for different epidemic patterns of infectious diseases. This includes investigations of the trajectory of the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West-Africa, influenza evolution and the seasonal dynamics...

Global patterns of foliar nitrogen isotopes and their relationships with climate, mycorrhizal fungi, foliar nutrient concentrations, and nitrogen availability

Science.gov (United States)

Joseph M. Craine; Andrew J. Elmore; Marcos P. M. Aidar; Mercedes Bustamante; Todd E. Dawson; Erik A. Hobbie; Ansgar Kahmen; Michelle C. Mack; Kendra K. McLauchlan; Anders Michelsen; Gabriela Nardoto; Linda H. Pardo; Josep Penuelas; Peter B. Reich; Edward A.G. Schuur; William D. Stock; Pamela H. Templer; Ross A. Virginia; Jeffrey M. Welker; Ian J. Wright

2009-01-01

Ratios of nitrogen (N) isotopes in leaves could elucidate underlying patterns of N cycling across ecological gradients. To better understand global-scale patterns of N cycling, we compiled data on foliar N isotope ratios, foliar N concentrations, mycorrhizal type and climate for over 11 000 plants worldwide. Global-scale comparisons of other components of the N cycle...

Retrospective analysis of EAB spread: understanding the effect of landscape pattern on invasion and propagation

Science.gov (United States)

Susan J. Crocker; Greg C. Liknes; Dacia M. Meneguzzo

2011-01-01

Spread of emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire, EAB) in the United States has been rapid and extensive. Nearly 10 years after its initial detection near Detroit, Michigan, EAB is now found in 15 states spanning a radius greater than 500 miles. While human activity has been central to facilitating the spread of EAB over long distances, the...

Invasive cyprinid fish in Europe originate from the single introduction of an admixed source population followed by a complex pattern of spread.

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Andrea Simon

Full Text Available The Asian cyprinid fish, the topmouth gudgeon (Pseudorasbora parva, was introduced into Europe in the 1960s. A highly invasive freshwater fish, it is currently found in at least 32 countries outside its native range. Here we analyse a 700 base pair fragment of the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene to examine different models of colonisation and spread within the invasive range, and to investigate the factors that may have contributed to their invasion success. Haplotype and nucleotide diversity of the introduced populations from continental Europe was higher than that of the native populations, although two recently introduced populations from the British Isles showed low levels of variability. Based on coalescent theory, all introduced and some native populations showed a relative excess of nucleotide diversity compared to haplotype diversity. This suggests that these populations are not in mutation-drift equilibrium, but rather that the relative inflated level of nucleotide diversity is consistent with recent admixture. This study elucidates the colonisation patterns of P. parva in Europe and provides an evolutionary framework of their invasion. It supports the hypothesis that their European colonisation was initiated by their introduction to a single location or small geographic area with subsequent complex pattern of spread including both long distance and stepping-stone dispersal. Furthermore, it was preceded by, or associated with, the admixture of genetically diverse source populations that may have augmented its invasive-potential.

Measurements of monopolar and bipolar current spreads using forward-masking with a fixed probe.

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Bingabr, Mohamed G; Espinoza-Varas, Blas; Sigdel, Saroj

2014-05-01

This research employed a forward-masking paradigm to estimate the current spread of monopolar (MP) and bipolar (BP) maskers, with current amplitudes adjusted to elicit the same loudness. Since the spatial separation between active and return electrodes is smaller in BP than in MP configurations, the BP current spread is more localized and presumably superior in terms of speech intelligibility. Because matching the loudness requires higher current in BP than in MP stimulation, previous forward-masking studies show that BP current spread is not consistently narrower across subjects or electrodes within a subject. The present forward-masking measures of current spread differ from those of previous studies by using the same BP probe electrode configuration for both MP and BP masker configurations, and adjusting the current levels of the MP and BP maskers so as to match them in loudness. With this method, the estimate of masker current spread would not be contaminated by differences in probe current spread. Forward masking was studied in four cochlear implant patients, two females and two males, with speech recognition scores higher than 50%; that is, their auditory-nerve survival status was more than adequate to carry out the experiments. The data showed that MP and BP masker configurations produce equivalent masking patterns (and current spreads) in three participants. A fourth participant displayed asymmetrical patterns with enhancement rather than masking in some cases, especially when the probe and masker were at the same location. This study showed equivalent masking patterns for MP and BP maskers when the BP masker current amplitude was increased to match the loudness of the MP masker, and the same BP probe configuration is used with both maskers. This finding could help to explain why cochlear implant users often fail to accrue higher speech intelligibility benefit from BP stimulation.

An agent-based computational model of the spread of tuberculosis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Espíndola, Aquino L; Bauch, Chris T; Troca Cabella, Brenno C; Martinez, Alexandre Souto

2011-01-01

In this work we propose an alternative model of the spread of tuberculosis (TB) and the emergence of drug resistance due to the treatment with antibiotics. We implement the simulations by an agent-based model computational approach where the spatial structure is taken into account. The spread of tuberculosis occurs according to probabilities defined by the interactions among individuals. The model was validated by reproducing results already known from the literature in which different treatment regimes yield the emergence of drug resistance. The different patterns of TB spread can be visualized at any time of the system evolution. The implementation details as well as some results of this alternative approach are discussed

Analysis of Architectural Building Design Influences on Fire Spread in Densely Urban Settlement using Cellular Automata

Science.gov (United States)

Tambunan, L.; Salamah, H.; Asriana, N.

2017-03-01

This study aims to determine the influence of architectural design on the risk of fire spread in densely urban settlement area. Cellular Automata (CA) is used to analyse the fire spread pattern, speed, and the extent of damage. Four cells represent buildings, streets, and fields characteristic in the simulated area, as well as their flammability level and fire spread capabilities. Two fire scenarios are used to model the spread of fire: (1) fire origin in a building with concrete and wood material majority, and (2) fire origin in building with wood material majority. Building shape, building distance, road width, and total area of wall openings are considered constant, while wind is ignored. The result shows that fire spread faster in the building area with wood majority than with concrete majority. Significant amount of combustible building material, absence of distance between buildings, narrow streets and limited fields are factors which influence fire spread speed and pattern as well as extent of damage when fire occurs in the densely urban settlement area.

Spread pattern of the first dengue epidemic in the city of Salvador, Brazil

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Carvalho Marilia S

2008-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The explosive epidemics of dengue that have been occurring in various countries have stimulated investigation into new approaches to improve understanding of the problem and to develop new strategies for controlling the disease. The objective of this study was to evaluate the characteristics of diffusion of the first dengue epidemic that occurred in the city of Salvador in 1995. Methods The epidemiological charts and records of notified cases of dengue in Salvador in 1995 constituted the source of data. The cases of the disease were georeferenced according to census areas (spatial units and epidemiological weeks (temporal unit. Kernel density estimation was used to identify the pattern of spatial diffusion using the R-Project computer software program. Results Of the 2,006 census areas in the city, 1,400 (70% registered cases of dengue in 1995 and the spatial distribution of these records revealed that by the end of 1995 practically the entire city had been affected by the virus, with the largest concentration of cases occurring in the western region, composed of census areas with a high population density and predominantly horizontal residences compared to the eastern region of the city, where there is a predominance of vertical residential buildings. Conclusion The pattern found in this study shows the characteristics of the classic process of spreading by contagion that is common to most infectious diseases. It was possible to identify the epicenter of the epidemic from which centrifugal waves of the disease emanated. Our results suggest that, if a more agile control instrument existed that would be capable of rapidly reducing the vector population within a few days or of raising the group immunity of the population by means of a vaccine, it would theoretically be possible to adopt control actions around the epicenter of the epidemic and consequently reduce the incidence of the disease in the city. This finding emphasizes

GLOBALIZATION, CONSUMPTION PATTERNS AND POLITICAL STABILITY

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Grzegorz Malinowski

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Rapid changes in technology and economy that we observe nowadays are accompanied by rapid changes in traditional values and attitudes. In the contemporary world, a permanent proximity of internet, computer, television or smartphone makes us all citizens of the globalised, virtual world rather than a physical, geographical, real one. But even if people consider themselves to be citizens of the “global village”, a political architecture of the real world has remained based on the nation-state. One of the main characteristics of a nation-state is its territory defined by its borders. Recognition and respect of nation-state borders is considered to be a principle of national sovereignty, national interest and territorial independence, which shape international relations. Historically, rulers always usurped the right to control what happens on their territory, but there were some areas that had escaped their supervision. The first one is the sphere of science and more broadly – ideas. Whether it was religion, superstition or steam engine, ideas were unstoppable even for isolated countries. Second area is a realm of trade. Rulers were usually rather kind for merchants, therefore borders were always wide open for business people. It is worth mentioning that both ideas and trade are significant driving forces in the history of world. Their influence is sometimes stronger and sometimes weaker but it is always meaningful. Yet the very hypothesis of this article states that in contemporary, globalised world a third important factor has arrived. It was always present but until the economy hasn’t become globalized, its impact wasn’t noticeable. This third factor can be described as universalisation of western consumption patterns and it plays an important role particularly in developing countries.

Globalization and democracy

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DEEPAK NAYYAR

2015-09-01

Full Text Available ABSTRACTThe gathering momentum of globalization in the world economy has coincided with the spread of political democracy across countries. Economies have become global. But politics remains national. This essay explores the relationship between globalization and democracy, which is neither linear nor characterized by structural rigidities. It seeks to analyze how globalization might constrain degrees of freedom for nation states and space for democratic politics, and how political democracy within countries might exercise some checks and balances on markets and globalization. The essential argument is that the relationship between globalization and democracy is dialectical and does not conform to ideological caricatures.

Biodiversity patterns, environmental drivers and indicator species on a high-temperature hydrothermal edifice, Mid-Atlantic Ridge

OpenAIRE

Sarrazin, Jozée; Legendre, Pierre; de Busserolles, Fanny; Fabri, Marie-Claire; Guilini, Katja; Ivanenko, Viatcheslav N.; Morineaux, Marie; Vanreusel, Ann; Sarradin, Pierre-Marie

2015-01-01

Knowledge on quantitative faunal distribution patterns of hydrothermal communities in slow-spreading vent fields is particularly scarce, despite the importance of these ridges in the global mid-ocean system. This study assessed the composition, abundance and diversity of 12 benthic faunal assemblages from various locations on the Eiffel Tower edifice (Lucky Strike vent field, Mid-Atlantic Ridge) and investigated the role of key environmental conditions (temperature, total dissolved iron (TdFe...

Globalization and disease: in an unequal world, unequal health!

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Buss Paulo Marchiori

2002-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper, originally presented at an event held by the National Institutes of Health (NIH in the United States, the author analyzes the repercussions of globalization on various health aspects: the spread of infectious and parasitic diseases, bioterrorism, and new behavioral patterns in health, among others. He goes on to examine the positive and negative effects of international agreements on health, particularly in the trade area, including the TRIPS Agreement on medicines in the area of public health. The paper concludes that the resumption of cooperation among nations is the best way to achieve world progress in public health.

Global Patterns in the Implementation of Payments for Environmental Services.

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Driss Ezzine-de-Blas

Full Text Available Assessing global tendencies and impacts of conditional payments for environmental services (PES programs is challenging because of their heterogeneity, and scarcity of comparative studies. This meta-study systematizes 55 PES schemes worldwide in a quantitative database. Using categorical principal component analysis to highlight clustering patterns, we reconfirm frequently hypothesized differences between public and private PES schemes, but also identify diverging patterns between commercial and non-commercial private PES vis-à-vis their service focus, area size, and market orientation. When do these PES schemes likely achieve significant environmental additionality? Using binary logistical regression, we find additionality to be positively influenced by three theoretically recommended PES 'best design' features: spatial targeting, payment differentiation, and strong conditionality, alongside some contextual controls (activity paid for and implementation time elapsed. Our results thus stress the preeminence of customized design over operational characteristics when assessing what determines the outcomes of PES implementation.

Human mobility and time spent at destination: impact on spatial epidemic spreading.

Science.gov (United States)

Poletto, Chiara; Tizzoni, Michele; Colizza, Vittoria

2013-12-07

Host mobility plays a fundamental role in the spatial spread of infectious diseases. Previous theoretical works based on the integration of network theory into the metapopulation framework have shown that the heterogeneities that characterize real mobility networks favor the propagation of epidemics. Nevertheless, the studies conducted so far assumed the mobility process to be either Markovian (in which the memory of the origin of each traveler is lost) or non-Markovian with a fixed traveling time scale (in which individuals travel to a destination and come back at a constant rate). Available statistics however show that the time spent by travelers at destination is characterized by wide fluctuations, ranging from a single day up to several months. Such varying length of stay crucially affects the chance and duration of mixing events among hosts and may therefore have a strong impact on the spread of an emerging disease. Here, we present an analytical and a computational study of epidemic processes on a complex subpopulation network where travelers have memory of their origin and spend a heterogeneously distributed time interval at their destination. Through analytical calculations and numerical simulations we show that the heterogeneity of the length of stay alters the expression of the threshold between local outbreak and global invasion, and, moreover, it changes the epidemic behavior of the system in case of a global outbreak. Additionally, our theoretical framework allows us to study the effect of changes in the traveling behavior in response to the infection, by considering a scenario in which sick individuals do not leave their home location. Finally, we compare the results of our non-Markovian framework with those obtained with a classic Markovian approach and find relevant differences between the two, in the estimate of the epidemic invasion potential, as well as of the timing and the pattern of its spatial spread. These results highlight the importance of

Global malaria connectivity through air travel

OpenAIRE

Huang, Zhuojie; Tatem, Andrew J

2013-01-01

Background Air travel has expanded at an unprecedented rate and continues to do so. Its effects have been seen on malaria in rates of imported cases, local outbreaks in non-endemic areas and the global spread of drug resistance. With elimination and global eradication back on the agenda, changing levels and compositions of imported malaria in malaria-free countries, and the threat of artemisinin resistance spreading from Southeast Asia, there is a need to better understand how the modern flow...

Modelling the introduction and spread of non-native species: international trade and climate change drive ragweed invasion.

Science.gov (United States)

Chapman, Daniel S; Makra, László; Albertini, Roberto; Bonini, Maira; Páldy, Anna; Rodinkova, Victoria; Šikoparija, Branko; Weryszko-Chmielewska, Elżbieta; Bullock, James M

2016-09-01

Biological invasions are a major driver of global change, for which models can attribute causes, assess impacts and guide management. However, invasion models typically focus on spread from known introduction points or non-native distributions and ignore the transport processes by which species arrive. Here, we developed a simulation model to understand and describe plant invasion at a continental scale, integrating repeated transport through trade pathways, unintentional release events and the population dynamics and local anthropogenic dispersal that drive subsequent spread. We used the model to simulate the invasion of Europe by common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia), a globally invasive plant that causes serious harm as an aeroallergen and crop weed. Simulations starting in 1950 accurately reproduced ragweed's current distribution, including the presence of records in climatically unsuitable areas as a result of repeated introduction. Furthermore, the model outputs were strongly correlated with spatial and temporal patterns of ragweed pollen concentrations, which are fully independent of the calibration data. The model suggests that recent trends for warmer summers and increased volumes of international trade have accelerated the ragweed invasion. For the latter, long distance dispersal because of trade within the invaded continent is highlighted as a key invasion process, in addition to import from the native range. Biosecurity simulations, whereby transport through trade pathways is halted, showed that effective control is only achieved by early action targeting all relevant pathways. We conclude that invasion models would benefit from integrating introduction processes (transport and release) with spread dynamics, to better represent propagule pressure from native sources as well as mechanisms for long-distance dispersal within invaded continents. Ultimately, such integration may facilitate better prediction of spatial and temporal variation in invasion

Modeling the effects of social impact on epidemic spreading in complex networks

Science.gov (United States)

Ni, Shunjiang; Weng, Wenguo; Zhang, Hui

2011-11-01

We investigate by mean-field analysis and extensive simulations the effects of social impact on epidemic spreading in various typical networks with two types of nodes: active nodes and passive nodes, of which the behavior patterns are modeled according to the social impact theory. In this study, nodes are not only the media to spread the virus, but also disseminate their opinions on the virus-whether there is a need for certain self-protection measures to be taken to reduce the risk of being infected. Our results indicate that the interaction between epidemic spreading and opinion dynamics can have significant influences on the spreading of infectious diseases and related applications, such as the implementation of prevention and control measures against the infectious diseases.

Patterns of Spatial Variation of Assemblages Associated with Intertidal Rocky Shores: A Global Perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Cruz-Motta, Juan José; Miloslavich, Patricia; Palomo, Gabriela; Iken, Katrin; Konar, Brenda; Pohle, Gerhard; Trott, Tom; Benedetti-Cecchi, Lisandro; Herrera, César; Hernández, Alejandra; Sardi, Adriana; Bueno, Andrea; Castillo, Julio; Klein, Eduardo; Guerra-Castro, Edlin; Gobin, Judith; Gómez, Diana Isabel; Riosmena-Rodríguez, Rafael; Mead, Angela; Bigatti, Gregorio; Knowlton, Ann; Shirayama, Yoshihisa

2010-01-01

Assemblages associated with intertidal rocky shores were examined for large scale distribution patterns with specific emphasis on identifying latitudinal trends of species richness and taxonomic distinctiveness. Seventy-two sites distributed around the globe were evaluated following the standardized sampling protocol of the Census of Marine Life NaGISA project (www.nagisa.coml.org). There were no clear patterns of standardized estimators of species richness along latitudinal gradients or among Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs); however, a strong latitudinal gradient in taxonomic composition (i.e., proportion of different taxonomic groups in a given sample) was observed. Environmental variables related to natural influences were strongly related to the distribution patterns of the assemblages on the LME scale, particularly photoperiod, sea surface temperature (SST) and rainfall. In contrast, no environmental variables directly associated with human influences (with the exception of the inorganic pollution index) were related to assemblage patterns among LMEs. Correlations of the natural assemblages with either latitudinal gradients or environmental variables were equally strong suggesting that neither neutral models nor models based solely on environmental variables sufficiently explain spatial variation of these assemblages at a global scale. Despite the data shortcomings in this study (e.g., unbalanced sample distribution), we show the importance of generating biological global databases for the use in large-scale diversity comparisons of rocky intertidal assemblages to stimulate continued sampling and analyses. PMID:21179546

Patterns of spatial variation of assemblages associated with intertidal rocky shores: a global perspective.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Juan José Cruz-Motta

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Assemblages associated with intertidal rocky shores were examined for large scale distribution patterns with specific emphasis on identifying latitudinal trends of species richness and taxonomic distinctiveness. Seventy-two sites distributed around the globe were evaluated following the standardized sampling protocol of the Census of Marine Life NaGISA project (www.nagisa.coml.org. There were no clear patterns of standardized estimators of species richness along latitudinal gradients or among Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs; however, a strong latitudinal gradient in taxonomic composition (i.e., proportion of different taxonomic groups in a given sample was observed. Environmental variables related to natural influences were strongly related to the distribution patterns of the assemblages on the LME scale, particularly photoperiod, sea surface temperature (SST and rainfall. In contrast, no environmental variables directly associated with human influences (with the exception of the inorganic pollution index were related to assemblage patterns among LMEs. Correlations of the natural assemblages with either latitudinal gradients or environmental variables were equally strong suggesting that neither neutral models nor models based solely on environmental variables sufficiently explain spatial variation of these assemblages at a global scale. Despite the data shortcomings in this study (e.g., unbalanced sample distribution, we show the importance of generating biological global databases for the use in large-scale diversity comparisons of rocky intertidal assemblages to stimulate continued sampling and analyses.

Epidemic spreading on interconnected networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Saumell-Mendiola, Anna; Serrano, M Ángeles; Boguñá, Marián

2012-08-01

Many real networks are not isolated from each other but form networks of networks, often interrelated in nontrivial ways. Here, we analyze an epidemic spreading process taking place on top of two interconnected complex networks. We develop a heterogeneous mean-field approach that allows us to calculate the conditions for the emergence of an endemic state. Interestingly, a global endemic state may arise in the coupled system even though the epidemics is not able to propagate on each network separately and even when the number of coupling connections is small. Our analytic results are successfully confronted against large-scale numerical simulations.

Global patterns of fragmentation and connectivity of mammalian carnivore habitat.

Science.gov (United States)

Crooks, Kevin R; Burdett, Christopher L; Theobald, David M; Rondinini, Carlo; Boitani, Luigi

2011-09-27

Although mammalian carnivores are vulnerable to habitat fragmentation and require landscape connectivity, their global patterns of fragmentation and connectivity have not been examined. We use recently developed high-resolution habitat suitability models to conduct comparative analyses and to identify global hotspots of fragmentation and connectivity for the world's terrestrial carnivores. Species with less fragmentation (i.e. more interior high-quality habitat) had larger geographical ranges, a greater proportion of habitat within their range, greater habitat connectivity and a lower risk of extinction. Species with higher connectivity (i.e. less habitat isolation) also had a greater proportion of high-quality habitat, but had smaller, not larger, ranges, probably reflecting shorter distances between habitat patches for species with restricted distributions; such species were also more threatened, as would be expected given the negative relationship between range size and extinction risk. Fragmentation and connectivity did not differ among Carnivora families, and body mass was associated with connectivity but not fragmentation. On average, only 54.3 per cent of a species' geographical range comprised high-quality habitat, and more troubling, only 5.2 per cent of the range comprised such habitat within protected areas. Identification of global hotspots of fragmentation and connectivity will help guide strategic priorities for carnivore conservation.

Linking global climate and temperature variability to widespread amphibian declines putatively caused by disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Rohr, Jason R; Raffel, Thomas R

2010-05-04

The role of global climate change in the decline of biodiversity and the emergence of infectious diseases remains controversial, and the effect of climatic variability, in particular, has largely been ignored. For instance, it was recently revealed that the proposed link between climate change and widespread amphibian declines, putatively caused by the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), was tenuous because it was based on a temporally confounded correlation. Here we provide temporally unconfounded evidence that global El Niño climatic events drive widespread amphibian losses in genus Atelopus via increased regional temperature variability, which can reduce amphibian defenses against pathogens. Of 26 climate variables tested, only factors associated with temperature variability could account for the spatiotemporal patterns of declines thought to be associated with Bd. Climatic predictors of declines became significant only after controlling for a pattern consistent with epidemic spread (by temporally detrending the data). This presumed spread accounted for 59% of the temporal variation in amphibian losses, whereas El Niño accounted for 59% of the remaining variation. Hence, we could account for 83% of the variation in declines with these two variables alone. Given that global climate change seems to increase temperature variability, extreme climatic events, and the strength of Central Pacific El Niño episodes, climate change might exacerbate worldwide enigmatic declines of amphibians, presumably by increasing susceptibility to disease. These results suggest that changes to temperature variability associated with climate change might be as significant to biodiversity losses and disease emergence as changes to mean temperature.

The complex network of global cargo ship movements.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaluza, Pablo; Kölzsch, Andrea; Gastner, Michael T; Blasius, Bernd

2010-07-06

Transportation networks play a crucial role in human mobility, the exchange of goods and the spread of invasive species. With 90 per cent of world trade carried by sea, the global network of merchant ships provides one of the most important modes of transportation. Here, we use information about the itineraries of 16 363 cargo ships during the year 2007 to construct a network of links between ports. We show that the network has several features that set it apart from other transportation networks. In particular, most ships can be classified into three categories: bulk dry carriers, container ships and oil tankers. These three categories do not only differ in the ships' physical characteristics, but also in their mobility patterns and networks. Container ships follow regularly repeating paths whereas bulk dry carriers and oil tankers move less predictably between ports. The network of all ship movements possesses a heavy-tailed distribution for the connectivity of ports and for the loads transported on the links with systematic differences between ship types. The data analysed in this paper improve current assumptions based on gravity models of ship movements, an important step towards understanding patterns of global trade and bioinvasion.

Defining global neuroendocrine gene expression patterns associated with reproductive seasonality in fish.

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Dapeng Zhang

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Many vertebrates, including the goldfish, exhibit seasonal reproductive rhythms, which are a result of interactions between external environmental stimuli and internal endocrine systems in the hypothalamo-pituitary-gonadal axis. While it is long believed that differential expression of neuroendocrine genes contributes to establishing seasonal reproductive rhythms, no systems-level investigation has yet been conducted. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In the present study, by analyzing multiple female goldfish brain microarray datasets, we have characterized global gene expression patterns for a seasonal cycle. A core set of genes (873 genes in the hypothalamus were identified to be differentially expressed between May, August and December, which correspond to physiologically distinct stages that are sexually mature (prespawning, sexual regression, and early gonadal redevelopment, respectively. Expression changes of these genes are also shared by another brain region, the telencephalon, as revealed by multivariate analysis. More importantly, by examining one dataset obtained from fish in October who were kept under long-daylength photoperiod (16 h typical of the springtime breeding season (May, we observed that the expression of identified genes appears regulated by photoperiod, a major factor controlling vertebrate reproductive cyclicity. Gene ontology analysis revealed that hormone genes and genes functionally involved in G-protein coupled receptor signaling pathway and transmission of nerve impulses are significantly enriched in an expression pattern, whose transition is located between prespawning and sexually regressed stages. The existence of seasonal expression patterns was verified for several genes including isotocin, ependymin II, GABA(A gamma2 receptor, calmodulin, and aromatase b by independent samplings of goldfish brains from six seasonal time points and real-time PCR assays. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Using both

Warning signals for eruptive events in spreading fires.

Science.gov (United States)

Fox, Jerome M; Whitesides, George M

2015-02-24

Spreading fires are noisy (and potentially chaotic) systems in which transitions in dynamics are notoriously difficult to predict. As flames move through spatially heterogeneous environments, sudden shifts in temperature, wind, or topography can generate combustion instabilities, or trigger self-stabilizing feedback loops, that dramatically amplify the intensities and rates with which fires propagate. Such transitions are rarely captured by predictive models of fire behavior and, thus, complicate efforts in fire suppression. This paper describes a simple, remarkably instructive physical model for examining the eruption of small flames into intense, rapidly moving flames stabilized by feedback between wind and fire (i.e., "wind-fire coupling"-a mechanism of feedback particularly relevant to forest fires), and it presents evidence that characteristic patterns in the dynamics of spreading flames indicate when such transitions are likely to occur. In this model system, flames propagate along strips of nitrocellulose with one of two possible modes of propagation: a slow, structured mode, and a fast, unstructured mode sustained by wind-fire coupling. Experimental examination of patterns in dynamics that emerge near bifurcation points suggests that symptoms of critical slowing down (i.e., the slowed recovery of the system from perturbations as it approaches tipping points) warn of impending transitions to the unstructured mode. Findings suggest that slowing responses of spreading flames to sudden changes in environment (e.g., wind, terrain, temperature) may anticipate the onset of intense, feedback-stabilized modes of propagation (e.g., "blowup fires" in forests).

Spontaneous Spreading of a Droplet: The Role of Solid Continuity and Advancing Contact Angle.

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, Youhua; Sun, Yujin; Drelich, Jaroslaw W; Choi, Chang-Hwan

2018-05-01

Spontaneous spreading of a droplet on a solid surface is poorly understood from a macroscopic level down to a molecular level. Here, we investigate the effect of surface topography and wettability on spontaneous spreading of a water droplet. Spreading force is measured for a suspended droplet that minimizes interference of kinetic energy in the spontaneous spreading during its contact with solid surfaces of discontinuous (pillar) and continuous (pore) patterns with various shapes and dimensions. Results show that a droplet cannot spread spontaneously on pillared surfaces regardless of their shapes or dimensions because of the solid discontinuity. On the contrary, a droplet on pored surfaces can undergo spontaneous spreading whose force increases with a decrease in the advancing contact angle. Theoretical models based on both the system free energy and capillary force along the contact line validate the direct and universal dependency of the spontaneous spreading force on the advancing contact angle.

Real-time numerical forecast of global epidemic spreading: case study of 2009 A/H1N1pdm

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Tizzoni Michele

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Mathematical and computational models for infectious diseases are increasingly used to support public-health decisions; however, their reliability is currently under debate. Real-time forecasts of epidemic spread using data-driven models have been hindered by the technical challenges posed by parameter estimation and validation. Data gathered for the 2009 H1N1 influenza crisis represent an unprecedented opportunity to validate real-time model predictions and define the main success criteria for different approaches. Methods We used the Global Epidemic and Mobility Model to generate stochastic simulations of epidemic spread worldwide, yielding (among other measures the incidence and seeding events at a daily resolution for 3,362 subpopulations in 220 countries. Using a Monte Carlo Maximum Likelihood analysis, the model provided an estimate of the seasonal transmission potential during the early phase of the H1N1 pandemic and generated ensemble forecasts for the activity peaks in the northern hemisphere in the fall/winter wave. These results were validated against the real-life surveillance data collected in 48 countries, and their robustness assessed by focusing on 1 the peak timing of the pandemic; 2 the level of spatial resolution allowed by the model; and 3 the clinical attack rate and the effectiveness of the vaccine. In addition, we studied the effect of data incompleteness on the prediction reliability. Results Real-time predictions of the peak timing are found to be in good agreement with the empirical data, showing strong robustness to data that may not be accessible in real time (such as pre-exposure immunity and adherence to vaccination campaigns, but that affect the predictions for the attack rates. The timing and spatial unfolding of the pandemic are critically sensitive to the level of mobility data integrated into the model. Conclusions Our results show that large-scale models can be used to provide valuable real

Spreading dynamics of an e-commerce preferential information model on scale-free networks

Science.gov (United States)

Wan, Chen; Li, Tao; Guan, Zhi-Hong; Wang, Yuanmei; Liu, Xiongding

2017-02-01

In order to study the influence of the preferential degree and the heterogeneity of underlying networks on the spread of preferential e-commerce information, we propose a novel susceptible-infected-beneficial model based on scale-free networks. The spreading dynamics of the preferential information are analyzed in detail using the mean-field theory. We determine the basic reproductive number and equilibria. The theoretical analysis indicates that the basic reproductive number depends mainly on the preferential degree and the topology of the underlying networks. We prove the global stability of the information-elimination equilibrium. The permanence of preferential information and the global attractivity of the information-prevailing equilibrium are also studied in detail. Some numerical simulations are presented to verify the theoretical results.

Spreading convulsions, spreading depolarization and epileptogenesis in human cerebral cortex

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dreier, Jens P; Major, Sebastian; Pannek, Heinz-Wolfgang

2012-01-01

Spreading depolarization of cells in cerebral grey matter is characterized by massive ion translocation, neuronal swelling and large changes in direct current-coupled voltage recording. The near-complete sustained depolarization above the inactivation threshold for action potential generating...... stimulations. Eventually, epileptic field potentials were recorded during the period that had originally seen spreading depression of activity. Such spreading convulsions are characterized by epileptic field potentials on the final shoulder of the large slow potential change of spreading depolarization. We...

GIS-supported analysis of global patterns of anthropogenic forest degradation. A sectoral application of the syndrome concept

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cassel-Gintz, M.

2001-06-01

The geographical analysis of a Syndrome is performed in several steps integrating GIS with concepts of fuzzy logic and qualitative reasoning. In the first step a syndrome specific network of interactions is formulated by analysing case studies, theories and expert assessments. Based on this systemic representation the natural and socio-economic conditions under which the syndrome specific mechanisms can be active are identified. This evaluation is called the disposition of a region towards a specific Syndrome. The resulting indicator can be used as an early warning indicator for the possible germination of a non-sustainable development. Based on the constituting elements of the Syndrome, a complex indicator for the intensity of the active Syndrome is derived in the next step of the analysis. This indicator assesses the critical states in the dynamical evolution of the non-sustainable patterns of civilisation nature interaction. Complete Syndrome analyses are performed for the main Syndromes of deforestation. The resulting spatial distribution of the combined dispositions and intensities of the different Syndromes present a unique global assessment describing the current damage and future regional threats to forests by their underlying global cause-effect patterns of civilisation-nature interaction. Specially the assessment of the threat by coupling of momentarily active and potentially active cause-effect patterns provides a previously not achieved systematic insight into the complex interaction of different patterns of global deforestation and forest degradation. (orig.)

Emerging pattern of global change in the upper atmosphere and ionosphere

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J. Laštovička

2008-05-01

Full Text Available In the upper atmosphere, greenhouse gases produce a cooling effect, instead of a warming effect. Increases in greenhouse gas concentrations are expected to induce substantial changes in the mesosphere, thermosphere, and ionosphere, including a thermal contraction of these layers. In this article we construct for the first time a pattern of the observed long-term global change in the upper atmosphere, based on trend studies of various parameters. The picture we obtain is qualitative, and contains several gaps and a few discrepancies, but the overall pattern of observed long-term changes throughout the upper atmosphere is consistent with model predictions of the effect of greenhouse gas increases. Together with the large body of lower atmospheric trend research, our synthesis indicates that anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are affecting the atmosphere at nearly all altitudes between ground and space.

Scattering and the Point Spread Function of the New Generation Space Telescope

Science.gov (United States)

Schreur, Julian J.

1996-01-01

Preliminary design work on the New Generation Space Telescope (NGST) is currently under way. This telescope is envisioned as a lightweight, deployable Cassegrain reflector with an aperture of 8 meters, and an effective focal length of 80 meters. It is to be folded into a small-diameter package for launch by an Atlas booster, and unfolded in orbit. The primary is to consist of an octagon with a hole at the center, and with eight segments arranged in a flower petal configuration about the octagon. The comers of the petal-shaped segments are to be trimmed so that the package will fit atop the Atlas booster. This mirror, along with its secondary will focus the light from a point source into an image which is spread from a point by diffraction effects, figure errors, and scattering of light from the surface. The distribution of light in the image of a point source is called a point spread function (PSF). The obstruction of the incident light by the secondary mirror and its support structure, the trimmed corners of the petals, and the grooves between the segments all cause the diffraction pattern characterizing an ideal point spread function to be changed, with the trimmed comers causing the rings of the Airy pattern to become broken up, and the linear grooves causing diffraction spikes running radially away from the central spot, or Airy disk. Any figure errors the mirror segments may have, or any errors in aligning the petals with the central octagon will also spread the light out from the ideal point spread function. A point spread function for a mirror the size of the NGST and having an incident wavelength of 900 nm is considered. Most of the light is confined in a circle with a diameter of 0.05 arc seconds. The ring pattern ranges in intensity from 10(exp -2) near the center to 10(exp -6) near the edge of the plotted field, and can be clearly discerned in a log plot of the intensity. The total fraction of the light scattered from this point spread function is called

Montane ecosystem productivity responds more to global circulation patterns than climatic trends

Science.gov (United States)

Desai, A. R.; Wohlfahrt, G.; Zeeman, M. J.; Katata, G.; Eugster, W.; Montagnani, L.; Gianelle, D.; Mauder, M.; Schmid, H.-P.

2016-02-01

Regional ecosystem productivity is highly sensitive to inter-annual climate variability, both within and outside the primary carbon uptake period. However, Earth system models lack sufficient spatial scales and ecosystem processes to resolve how these processes may change in a warming climate. Here, we show, how for the European Alps, mid-latitude Atlantic ocean winter circulation anomalies drive high-altitude summer forest and grassland productivity, through feedbacks among orographic wind circulation patterns, snowfall, winter and spring temperatures, and vegetation activity. Therefore, to understand future global climate change influence to regional ecosystem productivity, Earth systems models need to focus on improvements towards topographic downscaling of changes in regional atmospheric circulation patterns and to lagged responses in vegetation dynamics to non-growing season climate anomalies.

Montane ecosystem productivity responds more to global circulation patterns than climatic trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Desai, A R; Wohlfahrt, G; Zeeman, M J; Katata, G; Mauder, M; Schmid, H-P; Eugster, W; Montagnani, L; Gianelle, D

2016-01-01

Regional ecosystem productivity is highly sensitive to inter-annual climate variability, both within and outside the primary carbon uptake period. However, Earth system models lack sufficient spatial scales and ecosystem processes to resolve how these processes may change in a warming climate. Here, we show, how for the European Alps, mid-latitude Atlantic ocean winter circulation anomalies drive high-altitude summer forest and grassland productivity, through feedbacks among orographic wind circulation patterns, snowfall, winter and spring temperatures, and vegetation activity. Therefore, to understand future global climate change influence to regional ecosystem productivity, Earth systems models need to focus on improvements towards topographic downscaling of changes in regional atmospheric circulation patterns and to lagged responses in vegetation dynamics to non-growing season climate anomalies. (letter)

Altitudinal Barrier to the Spread of an Invasive Species: Could the Pyrenean Chain Slow the Natural Spread of the Pinewood Nematode?

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Julien Haran

Full Text Available Mountain ranges may delimit the distribution of native species as well as constitute potential barriers to the spread of invasive species. The invasive pinewood nematode, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, is a severe forest pest inducing pine wilt disease. It is vectored in Europe by a native long-horned beetle, Monochamus galloprovincialis. This study explored the potential of the Pyrenean chain to slow or prevent the natural spread of nematode-infested beetles from the Iberian Peninsula, where the nematode is established and is expanding its range, towards France and the rest of Europe. An analysis of the genetic structure and migration patterns of the beetle populations throughout the Pyrenean mountain range was combined with a spread model simulating the potential movements of nematode-infested beetles across it. The central part of the Pyrenees, which corresponds to the highest elevation zone, was shown to prevent gene flow between the French and Spanish populations of M. galloprovincialis on each side of the mountains. Conversely, strong admixture was detected between populations located on both sides of low elevation hills, and especially at the east and west extremities of the mountain range. Simulations of the spread of nematode-infested beetles under various thresholds of beetle survival and pine wilt disease expression gave results consistent with the variation in genetic make-up, suggesting that western and eastern hillsides may represent corridors favoring natural spread of the nematode from the Iberian Peninsula to France. Simulations also showed that temperature rise due to climate change may significantly reduce the extent of the barrier formed by highest elevations. Our results support the hypothesis that the Pyrenean chain represents a partial barrier to the natural spread of nematode-infested beetles. These results, which have to be considered together with potential human-assisted long-distance spread of the nematode, highlight

Dynamics of epidemic spreading model with drug-resistant variation on scale-free networks

Science.gov (United States)

Wan, Chen; Li, Tao; Zhang, Wu; Dong, Jing

2018-03-01

Considering the influence of the virus' drug-resistant variation, a novel SIVRS (susceptible-infected-variant-recovered-susceptible) epidemic spreading model with variation characteristic on scale-free networks is proposed in this paper. By using the mean-field theory, the spreading dynamics of the model is analyzed in detail. Then, the basic reproductive number R0 and equilibriums are derived. Studies show that the existence of disease-free equilibrium is determined by the basic reproductive number R0. The relationships between the basic reproductive number R0, the variation characteristic and the topology of the underlying networks are studied in detail. Furthermore, our studies prove the global stability of the disease-free equilibrium, the permanence of epidemic and the global attractivity of endemic equilibrium. Numerical simulations are performed to confirm the analytical results.

Ensemble Forecasts with Useful Skill-Spread Relationships for African meningitis and Asia Streamflow Forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Hopson, T. M.

2014-12-01

One potential benefit of an ensemble prediction system (EPS) is its capacity to forecast its own forecast error through the ensemble spread-error relationship. In practice, an EPS is often quite limited in its ability to represent the variable expectation of forecast error through the variable dispersion of the ensemble, and perhaps more fundamentally, in its ability to provide enough variability in the ensembles dispersion to make the skill-spread relationship even potentially useful (irrespective of whether the EPS is well-calibrated or not). In this paper we examine the ensemble skill-spread relationship of an ensemble constructed from the TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) dataset of global forecasts and a combination of multi-model and post-processing approaches. Both of the multi-model and post-processing techniques are based on quantile regression (QR) under a step-wise forward selection framework leading to ensemble forecasts with both good reliability and sharpness. The methodology utilizes the ensemble's ability to self-diagnose forecast instability to produce calibrated forecasts with informative skill-spread relationships. A context for these concepts is provided by assessing the constructed ensemble in forecasting district-level humidity impacting the incidence of meningitis in the meningitis belt of Africa, and in forecasting flooding events in the Brahmaputra and Ganges basins of South Asia.

Spreading Depression, Spreading Depolarizations, and the Cerebral Vasculature

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ayata, Cenk; Lauritzen, Martin

2015-01-01

Spreading depression (SD) is a transient wave of near-complete neuronal and glial depolarization associated with massive transmembrane ionic and water shifts. It is evolutionarily conserved in the central nervous systems of a wide variety of species from locust to human. The depolarization spreads...

Global diversity patterns of freshwater fishes - potential victims of their own success

OpenAIRE

Pelayo-Villamil, P.; Guisande, C.; Vari, R. P.; Manjarres-Hernandez, A.; Garcia-Rosello, E.; Gonzalez-Dacosta, J.; Heine, J.; Vilas, L. G.; Patti, B.; Quinci, E. M.; Jimenez, L. F.; Granado-Lorencio, C.; Tedesco, Pablo; Lobo, J. M.

2015-01-01

AimTo examine the pattern and cumulative curve of descriptions of freshwater fishes world-wide, the geographical biases in the available information on that fauna, the relationship between species richness and geographical rarity of such fishes, as well as to assess the relative contributions of different environmental factors on these variables. LocationGlobal. MethodsModestR was used to summarize the geographical distribution of freshwater fish species using information available from data-...

Spatial patterns and temporal dynamics of global scale climate-groundwater interactions

Science.gov (United States)

Cuthbert, M. O.; Gleeson, T. P.; Moosdorf, N.; Schneider, A. C.; Hartmann, J.; Befus, K. M.; Lehner, B.

2017-12-01

The interactions between groundwater and climate are important to resolve in both space and time as they influence mass and energy transfers at Earth's land surface. Despite the significance of these processes, little is known about the spatio-temporal distribution of such interactions globally, and many large-scale climate, hydrological and land surface models oversimplify groundwater or exclude it completely. In this study we bring together diverse global geomatic data sets to map spatial patterns in the sensitivity and degree of connectedness between the water table and the land surface, and use the output from a global groundwater model to assess the locations where the lateral import or export of groundwater is significant. We also quantify the groundwater response time, the characteristic time for groundwater systems to respond to a change in boundary conditions, and map its distribution globally to assess the likely dynamics of groundwater's interaction with climate. We find that more than half of the global land surface significantly exports or imports groundwater laterally. Nearly 40% of Earth's landmass has water tables that are strongly coupled to topography with water tables shallow enough to enable a bi-directional exchange of moisture with the climate system. However, only a small proportion (around 12%) of such regions have groundwater response times of 100 years or less and have groundwater fluxes that would significantly respond to rapid environmental changes over this timescale. We last explore fundamental relationships between aridity, groundwater response times and groundwater turnover times. Our results have wide ranging implications for understanding and modelling changes in Earth's water and energy balance and for informing robust future water management and security decisions.

A Finsler geodesic spray paradigm for wildfire spread modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Markvorsen, Steen

2015-01-01

represents the local fire templates. The ‘paradigm’ part of the present proposal is thus concerned with the corresponding shift of attention from the actual fire-lines to consider instead the geodesic spray - the ‘fire-particles’ - which together, side by side, mold the fire-lines at each instant of time...... and thence eventually constitute the local and global structure of the wildfire spread....

Implications of the spatial dynamics of fire spread for the bistability of savanna and forest.

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Schertzer, E; Staver, A C; Levin, S A

2015-01-01

The role of fire in expanding the global distribution of savanna is well recognized. Empirical observations and modeling suggest that fire spread has a threshold response to fuel-layer continuity, which sets up a positive feedback that maintains savanna-forest bistability. However, modeling has so far failed to examine fire spread as a spatial process that interacts with vegetation. Here, we use simple, well-supported assumptions about fire spread as an infection process and its effects on trees to ask whether spatial dynamics qualitatively change the potential for savanna-forest bistability. We show that the spatial effects of fire spread are the fundamental reason that bistability is possible: because fire spread is an infection process, it exhibits a threshold response to fuel continuity followed by a rapid increase in fire size. Other ecological processes affecting fire spread may also contribute including temporal variability in demography or fire spread. Finally, including the potential for spatial aggregation increases the potential both for savanna-forest bistability and for savanna and forest to coexist in a landscape mosaic.

Analytical solution of a stochastic model of risk spreading with global coupling

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Morita, Satoru; Yoshimura, Jin

2013-11-01

We study a stochastic matrix model to understand the mechanics of risk spreading (or bet hedging) by dispersion. Up to now, this model has been mostly dealt with numerically, except for the well-mixed case. Here, we present an analytical result that shows that optimal dispersion leads to Zipf's law. Moreover, we found that the arithmetic ensemble average of the total growth rate converges to the geometric one, because the sample size is finite.

Spread of Ebola disease with susceptible exposed infected isolated recovered (SEIIhR) model

Science.gov (United States)

Azizah, Afina; Widyaningsih, Purnami; Retno Sari Saputro, Dewi

2017-06-01

Ebola is a deadly infectious disease and has caused an epidemic on several countries in West Africa. Mathematical modeling to study the spread of Ebola disease has been developed, including through models susceptible infected removed (SIR) and susceptible exposed infected removed (SEIR). Furthermore, susceptible exposed infected isolated recovered (SEIIhR) model has been derived. The aims of this research are to derive SEIIhR model for Ebola disease, to determine the patterns of its spread, to determine the equilibrium point and stability of the equilibrium point using phase plane analysis, and also to apply the SEIIhR model on Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone in 2014. The SEIIhR model is a differential equation system. Pattern of ebola disease spread with SEIIhR model is solution of the differential equation system. The equilibrium point of SEIIhR model is unique and it is a disease-free equilibrium point that stable. Application of the model is based on the data Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone. The free-disease equilibrium point (Se; Ee; Ie; Ihe; Re )=(5743865, 0, 0, 0, 0) is stable.

The Global Precipitation Patterns Associated with Short-Term Extratropical Climate Fluctuations

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Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.; Bolvin, David T.

1999-01-01

Two globally-complete, observation-only precipitation datasets have recently been developed for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Both depend heavily on a variety of satellite input, as well as gauge data over land. The first, Version 2x79, provides monthly estimates on a 2.5 deg. x 2.5 deg. lat/long grid for the period 1979 through late 1999 (by the time of the conference). The second, the One-Degree Daily (1DD), provides daily estimates on a 1 deg. x l deg. grid for the period 1997 through late 1999 (by the time of the conference). Both are in beta test preparatory to release as official GPCP products. These datasets provide a unique perspective on the hydrological effects of the various atmospheric flow anomalies that have been identified by meteorologists. In this paper we discuss the regional precipitation effects that result from persistent extratropical flow anomalies. We will focus on the Pacific-North America (PNA) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) patterns. Each characteristically becomes established on synoptic time scales, but then persists for periods that can exceed a month. The onset phase of each appears to have systematic mobile features, while the mature phase tend to be more stationary. Accordingly, composites of monthly data for outstanding positive and negative events (separately) contained in the 20-year record reveal the climatological structure of the precipitation during the mature phase. The climatological anomalies of the positive, negative, and (positive-negative) composites show the expected storm-track-related shifts in precipitation, and provide the advantage of putting the known precipitation effects over land in the context of the total pattern over land and ocean. As well, this global perspective points out some unexpected areas of correlation. Day-by-day composites of daily data anchored to the onset date demonstrate the systematic features during the onset. Although the 1DD has a fairly short record, some

Modeling urbanization patterns at a global scale with generative adversarial networks

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Albert, A. T.; Strano, E.; Gonzalez, M.

2017-12-01

Current demographic projections show that, in the next 30 years, global population growth will mostly take place in developing countries. Coupled with a decrease in density, such population growth could potentially double the land occupied by settlements by 2050. The lack of reliable and globally consistent socio-demographic data, coupled with the limited predictive performance underlying traditional urban spatial explicit models, call for developing better predictive methods, calibrated using a globally-consistent dataset. Thus, richer models of the spatial interplay between the urban built-up land, population distribution and energy use are central to the discussion around the expansion and development of cities, and their impact on the environment in the context of a changing climate. In this talk we discuss methods for, and present an analysis of, urban form, defined as the spatial distribution of macroeconomic quantities that characterize a city, using modern machine learning methods and best-available remote-sensing data for the world's largest 25,000 cities. We first show that these cities may be described by a small set of patterns in radial building density, nighttime luminosity, and population density, which highlight, to first order, differences in development and land use across the world. We observe significant, spatially-dependent variance around these typical patterns, which would be difficult to model using traditional statistical methods. We take a first step in addressing this challenge by developing CityGAN, a conditional generative adversarial network model for simulating realistic urban forms. To guide learning and measure the quality of the simulated synthetic cities, we develop a specialized loss function for GAN optimization that incorporates standard spatial statistics used by urban analysis experts. Our framework is a stark departure from both the standard physics-based approaches in the literature (that view urban forms as fractals with a

GENERAL: Epidemic spreading on networks with vaccination

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Shi, Hong-Jing; Duan, Zhi-Sheng; Chen, Guan-Rong; Li, Rong

2009-08-01

In this paper, a new susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model on complex networks with imperfect vaccination is proposed. Two types of epidemic spreading patterns (the recovered individuals have or have not immunity) on scale-free networks are discussed. Both theoretical and numerical analyses are presented. The epidemic thresholds related to the vaccination rate, the vaccination-invalid rate and the vaccination success rate on scale-free networks are demonstrated, showing different results from the reported observations. This reveals that whether or not the epidemic can spread over a network under vaccination control is determined not only by the network structure but also by the medicine's effective duration. Moreover, for a given infective rate, the proportion of individuals to vaccinate can be calculated theoretically for the case that the recovered nodes have immunity. Finally, simulated results are presented to show how to control the disease prevalence.

Global spread of mouse-adapted Staphylococcus aureus lineages CC1, CC15, and CC88 among mouse breeding facilities.

Science.gov (United States)

Mrochen, Daniel M; Grumann, Dorothee; Schulz, Daniel; Gumz, Janine; Trübe, Patricia; Pritchett-Corning, Kathleen; Johnson, Sarah; Nicklas, Werner; Kirsch, Petra; Martelet, Karine; Brandt, Jens van den; Berg, Sabine; Bröker, Barbara M; Wiles, Siouxsie; Holtfreter, Silva

2017-11-20

We previously reported that laboratory mice from all global vendors are frequently colonized with Staphylococcus aureus (S. aureus). Genotyping of a snap sample of murine S. aureus isolates from Charles River, US, showed that mice were predominantly colonized with methicillin-sensitive CC88 strains. Here, we expanded our view and investigated whether laboratory mice from other global animal facilities are colonized with similar strains or novel S. aureus lineages, and whether the murine S. aureus isolates show features of host adaptation. In total, we genotyped 230 S. aureus isolates from various vendor facilities of laboratory mice around the globe (Charles River facilities in the USA, Canada, France, and Germany; another US facility) and university- or company-associated breeding facilities in Germany, China and New Zealand. Spa typing was performed to analyse the clonal relationship of the isolates. Moreover, multiplex PCRs were performed for human-specific virulence factors, the immune-evasion cluster (IEC) and superantigen genes (SAg). We found a total of 58 different spa types that clustered into 15 clonal complexes (CCs). Three of these S. aureus lineages had spread globally among laboratory mice and accounted for three quarters of the isolates: CC1 (13.5%), CC15 (14.3%), and CC88 (47.0%). Compared to human colonizing isolates of the same lineages, the murine isolates frequently lacked IEC genes and SAg genes on mobile genetic elements, implying long-term adaptation to the murine host. In conclusion, laboratory mice from various vendors are colonized with host-adapted S. aureus-strains of a few lineages, predominantly the CC88 lineage. S. aureus researchers must be cautioned that S. aureus colonization might be a relevant confounder in infection and vaccination studies and are therefore advised to screen their mice before experimentation. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier GmbH.. All rights reserved.

Population migration and the spread of types 1 and 2 human immunodeficiency viruses.

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Quinn, T C

1994-03-29

Over 14 million people are estimated to be infected with the human immunodeficiency viruses (HIV), with nearly three-fourths of the infected persons residing in developing countries. One factor responsible for dissemination of both HIV-1 and HIV-2 worldwide was the intense migration of individuals, from rural to urban centers with subsequent return migration and internationally due to civil wars, tourism, business purposes, and the drug trade. In sub-Saharan Africa, between 1960 and 1980, urban centers with more than 500,000 inhabitants increased from 3 to 28, and more than 75 military coups occurred in 30 countries. The result was a massive migration of rural inhabitants to urban centers concomitant with the spread of HIV-1 to large population centers. With the associated demographic, economic, and social changes, an epidemic of sexually transmitted diseases and HIV-1 was ignited. Migratory patterns were also responsible for the spread of endemic HIV-2 to neighboring West African countries and eventually to Europe, the Americans, and India. Although Southeast Asia was the last region in which HIV-1 was introduced, it has the greatest potential for rapid spread due to population density and inherent risk behaviors. Thus, the migration of poor, rural, and young sexually active individuals to urban centers coupled with large international movements of HIV-infected individuals played a prominent role in the dissemination of HIV globally. The economic recession has aggravated the transmission of HIV by directly increasing the population at risk through increased urban migration, disruption of rural families and cultural values, poverty, and prostitution and indirectly through a decrease in health care provision. Consequently, social and economic reform as well as sexual behavior education need to be intensified if HIV transmission is to be controlled.

Spatial spreading of infectious disease via local and national mobility networks in South Korea

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Kwon, Okyu; Son, Woo-Sik

2017-12-01

We study the spread of infectious disease based on local- and national-scale mobility networks. We construct a local mobility network using data on urban bus services to estimate local-scale movement of people. We also construct a national mobility network from orientation-destination data of vehicular traffic between highway tollgates to evaluate national-scale movement of people. A metapopulation model is used to simulate the spread of epidemics. Thus, the number of infected people is simulated using a susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model within the administrative division, and inter-division spread of infected people is determined through local and national mobility networks. In this paper, we consider two scenarios for epidemic spread. In the first, the infectious disease only spreads through local-scale movement of people, that is, the local mobility network. In the second, it spreads via both local and national mobility networks. For the former, the simulation results show infected people sequentially spread to neighboring divisions. Yet for the latter, we observe a faster spreading pattern to distant divisions. Thus, we confirm the national mobility network enhances synchronization among the incidence profiles of all administrative divisions.

A global analysis of bird plumage patterns reveals no association between habitat and camouflage

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marius Somveille

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Evidence suggests that animal patterns (motifs function in camouflage. Irregular mottled patterns can facilitate concealment when stationary in cluttered habitats, whereas regular patterns typically prevent capture during movement in open habitats. Bird plumage patterns have predominantly converged on just four types—mottled (irregular, scales, bars and spots (regular—and habitat could be driving convergent evolution in avian patterning. Based on sensory ecology, we therefore predict that irregular patterns would be associated with visually noisy closed habitats and that regular patterns would be associated with open habitats. Regular patterns have also been shown to function in communication for sexually competing males to stand-out and attract females, so we predict that male breeding plumage patterns evolved in both open and closed habitats. Here, taking phylogenetic relatedness into account, we investigate ecological selection for bird plumage patterns across the class Aves. We surveyed plumage patterns in 80% of all avian species worldwide. Of these, 2,756 bird species have regular and irregular plumage patterns as well as habitat information. In this subset, we tested whether adult breeding/non-breeding plumages in each sex, and juvenile plumages, were associated with the habitat types found within the species’ geographical distributions. We found no evidence for an association between habitat and plumage patterns across the world’s birds and little phylogenetic signal. We also found that species with regular and irregular plumage patterns were distributed randomly across the world’s eco-regions without being affected by habitat type. These results indicate that at the global spatial and taxonomic scale, habitat does not predict convergent evolution in bird plumage patterns, contrary to the camouflage hypothesis.

A global analysis of bird plumage patterns reveals no association between habitat and camouflage.

Science.gov (United States)

Somveille, Marius; Marshall, Kate L A; Gluckman, Thanh-Lan

2016-01-01

Evidence suggests that animal patterns (motifs) function in camouflage. Irregular mottled patterns can facilitate concealment when stationary in cluttered habitats, whereas regular patterns typically prevent capture during movement in open habitats. Bird plumage patterns have predominantly converged on just four types-mottled (irregular), scales, bars and spots (regular)-and habitat could be driving convergent evolution in avian patterning. Based on sensory ecology, we therefore predict that irregular patterns would be associated with visually noisy closed habitats and that regular patterns would be associated with open habitats. Regular patterns have also been shown to function in communication for sexually competing males to stand-out and attract females, so we predict that male breeding plumage patterns evolved in both open and closed habitats. Here, taking phylogenetic relatedness into account, we investigate ecological selection for bird plumage patterns across the class Aves. We surveyed plumage patterns in 80% of all avian species worldwide. Of these, 2,756 bird species have regular and irregular plumage patterns as well as habitat information. In this subset, we tested whether adult breeding/non-breeding plumages in each sex, and juvenile plumages, were associated with the habitat types found within the species' geographical distributions. We found no evidence for an association between habitat and plumage patterns across the world's birds and little phylogenetic signal. We also found that species with regular and irregular plumage patterns were distributed randomly across the world's eco-regions without being affected by habitat type. These results indicate that at the global spatial and taxonomic scale, habitat does not predict convergent evolution in bird plumage patterns, contrary to the camouflage hypothesis.

Investigation on the Patterns of Global Vegetation Change Using a Satellite-Sensed Vegetation Index

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ainong Li

2010-06-01

Full Text Available The pattern of vegetation change in response to global change still remains a controversial issue. A Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI dataset compiled by the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS was used for analysis. For the period 1982–2006, GIMMS-NDVI analysis indicated that monthly NDVI changes show homogenous trends in middle and high latitude areas in the northern hemisphere and within, or near, the Tropic of Cancer and Capricorn; with obvious spatio-temporal heterogeneity on a global scale over the past two decades. The former areas featured increasing vegetation activity during growth seasons, and the latter areas experienced an even greater amplitude in places where precipitation is adequate. The discussion suggests that one should be cautious of using the NDVI time-series to analyze local vegetation dynamics because of its coarse resolution and uncertainties.

Discovering significant evolution patterns from satellite image time series.

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Petitjean, François; Masseglia, Florent; Gançarski, Pierre; Forestier, Germain

2011-12-01

Satellite Image Time Series (SITS) provide us with precious information on land cover evolution. By studying these series of images we can both understand the changes of specific areas and discover global phenomena that spread over larger areas. Changes that can occur throughout the sensing time can spread over very long periods and may have different start time and end time depending on the location, which complicates the mining and the analysis of series of images. This work focuses on frequent sequential pattern mining (FSPM) methods, since this family of methods fits the above-mentioned issues. This family of methods consists of finding the most frequent evolution behaviors, and is actually able to extract long-term changes as well as short term ones, whenever the change may start and end. However, applying FSPM methods to SITS implies confronting two main challenges, related to the characteristics of SITS and the domain's constraints. First, satellite images associate multiple measures with a single pixel (the radiometric levels of different wavelengths corresponding to infra-red, red, etc.), which makes the search space multi-dimensional and thus requires specific mining algorithms. Furthermore, the non evolving regions, which are the vast majority and overwhelm the evolving ones, challenge the discovery of these patterns. We propose a SITS mining framework that enables discovery of these patterns despite these constraints and characteristics. Our proposal is inspired from FSPM and provides a relevant visualization principle. Experiments carried out on 35 images sensed over 20 years show the proposed approach makes it possible to extract relevant evolution behaviors.

Role of human-mediated dispersal in the spread of the pinewood nematode in China.

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Robinet, Christelle; Roques, Alain; Pan, Hongyang; Fang, Guofei; Ye, Jianren; Zhang, Yanzhuo; Sun, Jianghua

2009-01-01

Intensification of world trade is responsible for an increase in the number of alien species introductions. Human-mediated dispersal promotes not only introductions but also expansion of the species distribution via long-distance dispersal. Thus, understanding the role of anthropogenic pathways in the spread of invading species has become one of the most important challenges nowadays. We analysed the invasion pattern of the pinewood nematode in China based on invasion data from 1982 to 2005 and monitoring data on 7 locations over 15 years. Short distance spread mediated by long-horned beetles was estimated at 7.5 km per year. Infested sites located further away represented more than 90% of observations and the mean long distance spread was estimated at 111-339 km. Railways, river ports, and lakes had significant effects on the spread pattern. Human population density levels explained 87% of the variation in the invasion probability (Pclimate scenarios (stable climate or moderate warming), projections of the invasion probability suggest that this pest could expand its distribution 40-55% by 2025. This study provides evidence that human-induced dispersal plays a fundamental role in the spread of the pinewood nematode, and appropriate control measures should be taken to stop or slow its expansion. This model can be applied to Europe, where the nematode had been introduced later, and is currently expanding its distribution. Similar models could also be derived for other species that could be accidentally transported by humans.

Roles of the spreading scope and effectiveness in spreading dynamics on multiplex networks

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Ming; Liu, Run-Ran; Peng, Dan; Jia, Chun-Xiao; Wang, Bing-Hong

2018-02-01

Comparing with single networks, the multiplex networks bring two main effects on the spreading process among individuals. First, the pathogen or information can be transmitted to more individuals through different layers at one time, which enlarges the spreading scope. Second, through different layers, an individual can also transmit the pathogen or information to the same individuals more than once at one time, which makes the spreading more effective. To understand the different roles of the spreading scope and effectiveness, we propose an epidemic model on multiplex networks with link overlapping, where the spreading effectiveness of each interaction as well as the variety of channels (spreading scope) can be controlled by the number of overlapping links. We find that for Poisson degree distribution, increasing the epidemic scope (the first effect) is more efficient than enhancing epidemic probability (the second effect) to facilitate the spreading process. However, for power-law degree distribution, the effects of the two factors on the spreading dynamics become complicated. Enhancing epidemic probability makes pathogen or rumor easier to outbreak in a finite system. But after that increasing epidemic scopes is still more effective for a wide spreading. Theoretical results along with reasonable explanation for these phenomena are all given in this paper, which indicates that the epidemic scope could play an important role in the spreading dynamics.

Spatio-temporal patterns and climate variables controlling of biomass carbon stock of global grassland ecosystems from 1982 to 2006

Science.gov (United States)

Xia, Jiangzhou; Liu, Shuguang; Liang, Shunlin; Chen, Yang; Xu, Wenfang; Yuan, Wenping

2014-01-01

Grassland ecosystems play an important role in subsistence agriculture and the global carbon cycle. However, the global spatio-temporal patterns and environmental controls of grassland biomass are not well quantified and understood. The goal of this study was to estimate the spatial and temporal patterns of the global grassland biomass and analyze their driving forces using field measurements, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series from satellite data, climate reanalysis data, and a satellite-based statistical model. Results showed that the NDVI-based biomass carbon model developed from this study explained 60% of the variance across 38 sites globally. The global carbon stock in grassland aboveground live biomass was 1.05 Pg·C, averaged from 1982 to 2006, and increased at a rate of 2.43 Tg·C·y−1 during this period. Temporal change of the global biomass was significantly and positively correlated with temperature and precipitation. The distribution of biomass carbon density followed the precipitation gradient. The dynamics of regional grassland biomass showed various trends largely determined by regional climate variability, disturbances, and management practices (such as grazing for meat production). The methods and results from this study can be used to monitor the dynamics of grassland aboveground biomass and evaluate grassland susceptibility to climate variability and change, disturbances, and management.

Global patterns of foliar nitrogen isotopes and their relationships with climate, mycorrhizal fungi, foliar nutrient concentrations, and nitrogen availability

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Craine, J M; Elmore, A J; Aidar, M P M

2009-01-01

Ratios of nitrogen (N) isotopes in leaves could elucidate underlying patterns of N cycling across ecological gradients. To better understand global-scale patterns of N cycling, we compiled data on foliar N isotope ratios (d15N), foliar N concentrations, mycorrhizal type and climate for over 11 00...

Effects of q-profile structure on turbulence spreading: A fluctuation intensity transport analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yi, S.; Kwon, J. M. [National Fusion Research Institute, Eoeun-dong, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-333 (Korea, Republic of); Diamond, P. H. [National Fusion Research Institute, Eoeun-dong, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-333 (Korea, Republic of); Center for Astrophysics and Space Sciences and Department of Physics, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California 92093-0429 (United States); Hahm, T. S. [Department of Nuclear Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul 151-744 (Korea, Republic of)

2014-09-15

This paper studies effects of q-profile structure on turbulence spreading. It reports results of numerical experiments using global gyrokinetic simulations. We examine propagation of turbulence, triggered by an identical linear instability in a source region, into an adjacent, linearly stable region with variable q-profile. The numerical experiments are designed so as to separate the physics of turbulence spreading from that of linear stability. The strength of turbulence spreading is measured by the penetration depth of turbulence. Dynamics of spreading are elucidated by fluctuation intensity balance analysis, using a model intensity evolution equation which retains nonlinear diffusion and damping, and linear growth. It is found that turbulence spreading is strongly affected by magnetic shear s, but is hardly altered by the safety factor q itself. There is an optimal range of modest magnetic shear which maximizes turbulence spreading. For high to modest shear values, the spreading is enhanced by the increase of the mode correlation length with decreasing magnetic shear. However, the efficiency of spreading drops for sufficiently low magnetic shear even though the mode correlation length is comparable to that for the case of optimal magnetic shear. The reduction of spreading is attributed to the increase in time required for the requisite nonlinear mode-mode interactions. The effect of increased interaction time dominates that of increased mode correlation length. Our findings of the reduction of spreading and the increase in interaction time at weak magnetic shear are consistent with the well-known benefit of weak or reversed magnetic shear for core confinement enhancement. Weak shear is shown to promote locality, as well as stability.

Greater future global warming inferred from Earth's recent energy budget.

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Patrick T; Caldeira, Ken

2017-12-06

Climate models provide the principal means of projecting global warming over the remainder of the twenty-first century but modelled estimates of warming vary by a factor of approximately two even under the same radiative forcing scenarios. Across-model relationships between currently observable attributes of the climate system and the simulated magnitude of future warming have the potential to inform projections. Here we show that robust across-model relationships exist between the global spatial patterns of several fundamental attributes of Earth's top-of-atmosphere energy budget and the magnitude of projected global warming. When we constrain the model projections with observations, we obtain greater means and narrower ranges of future global warming across the major radiative forcing scenarios, in general. In particular, we find that the observationally informed warming projection for the end of the twenty-first century for the steepest radiative forcing scenario is about 15 per cent warmer (+0.5 degrees Celsius) with a reduction of about a third in the two-standard-deviation spread (-1.2 degrees Celsius) relative to the raw model projections reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our results suggest that achieving any given global temperature stabilization target will require steeper greenhouse gas emissions reductions than previously calculated.

Spread effects - methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-01-01

Diffusion of technology, environmental effects and rebound effects are the principal effects from the funding of renewable energy and energy economising. It is difficult to estimate the impact of the spread effects both prior to the measures are implemented and after the measures are carried out. Statistical methods can be used to estimate the spread effects, but they are insecure and always need to be complemented with qualitative and subjective evaluations. It is more adequate to evaluate potential spread effects from market and market data surveillance for a selection of technologies and parties. Based on this information qualitative indicators for spread effects can be constructed and used both ex ante and ex post (ml)

Modelling the wind-borne spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus between farms.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amos Ssematimba

Full Text Available A quantitative understanding of the spread of contaminated farm dust between locations is a prerequisite for obtaining much-needed insight into one of the possible mechanisms of disease spread between farms. Here, we develop a model to calculate the quantity of contaminated farm-dust particles deposited at various locations downwind of a source farm and apply the model to assess the possible contribution of the wind-borne route to the transmission of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza virus (HPAI during the 2003 epidemic in the Netherlands. The model is obtained from a Gaussian Plume Model by incorporating the dust deposition process, pathogen decay, and a model for the infection process on exposed farms. Using poultry- and avian influenza-specific parameter values we calculate the distance-dependent probability of between-farm transmission by this route. A comparison between the transmission risk pattern predicted by the model and the pattern observed during the 2003 epidemic reveals that the wind-borne route alone is insufficient to explain the observations although it could contribute substantially to the spread over short distance ranges, for example, explaining 24% of the transmission over distances up to 25 km.

Spread of Ebola disease with susceptible exposed infected isolated recovered (SEIIhR) model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Azizah, Afina; Widyaningsih, Purnami; Saputro, Dewi Retno Sari

2017-01-01

Ebola is a deadly infectious disease and has caused an epidemic on several countries in West Africa. Mathematical modeling to study the spread of Ebola disease has been developed, including through models susceptible infected removed (SIR) and susceptible exposed infected removed (SEIR). Furthermore, susceptible exposed infected isolated recovered (SEII h R) model has been derived. The aims of this research are to derive SEII h R model for Ebola disease, to determine the patterns of its spread, to determine the equilibrium point and stability of the equilibrium point using phase plane analysis, and also to apply the SEII h R model on Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone in 2014. The SEII h R model is a differential equation system. Pattern of ebola disease spread with SEII h R model is solution of the differential equation system. The equilibrium point of SEII h R model is unique and it is a disease-free equilibrium point that stable. Application of the model is based on the data Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone. The free-disease equilibrium point ( S e ; E e ; I e ; I he ; R e )=(5743865, 0, 0, 0, 0) is stable. (paper)

Global Delivery Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Manning, Stephan; Møller Larsen, Marcus; Bharati, Pratyush

-zone spread allowing for 24/7 service delivery and access to resources. Based on comprehensive data we show that providers are likely to establish GDM configurations when clients value access to globally distributed talent pools and speed of service delivery, and in particular when services are highly...

Recent Global Warming As Depicted by AIRS, GISSTEMP, and MERRA-2

Science.gov (United States)

Susskind, J.; Iredell, L. F.; Lee, J. N.

2017-12-01

We observed anomalously warm global mean surface temperatures since 2015. The year 2016 represents the warmest annual mean surface skin and surface air temperatures in the AIRS observational period, September 2002 through August 2017. Additionally, AIRS monthly mean surface skin temperature, from January 2016 through September 2016, and November 2016, were the warmest observed for each month of the year. Continuing this trend, the AIRS global surface temperatures of 2017 February and April show the second greatest positive anomalies from average. This recent warming is particularly significant over the Arctic where the snow and sea ice melt is closely tied to the spring and summer surface temperatures. In this paper, we show the global distribution of surface temperature anomalies as observed by AIRS over the period September 2002 through August 2017 and compare them with those from the GISSTEMP and MERRA-2 surface temperatures. The spatial patterns of warm and cold anomalies for a given month show reasonably good agreement in all three data set. AIRS anomalies, which do not have the benefit of in-situ measurements, are in almost perfect agreement with those of MERRA-2, which does use in-situ surface measurements. GISSTEMP anomaly patterns for the most part look similar to those of AIRS and MERRA-2, but are more spread out spatially, and consequently are also weaker.

Global Disparities Since 1800: Trends and Regional Patterns

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Shahid Alam

2015-08-01

Full Text Available This paper reviews the growing body of evidence on the relative economic standing of different regions of the world in the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries. In general, it does not find support for Euro-centric claims regarding Western Europe’s early economic lead. The Eurocentric claims are based primarily on estimates of per capita income, which are plagued by conceptual problems, make demands on historical data that are generally unavailable, and use questionable assumptions to reconstruct early per capita income. A careful examination of these conjectural estimates of per capita income, however, does not support claims that Western Europe had a substantial lead over the rest of the world at the beginning of the nineteenth century. An examination of several alternative indices of living standards in the late eighteenth or early nineteenth centuries—such as real wages, labor productivity in agriculture, and urbanization—also fails to confirm claims of European superiority. In addition, this paper examines the progress of global disparities—including the presence of regional patterns—using estimates of per capita income.

Novel measurement of spreading pattern of influenza epidemic by using weighted standard distance method: retrospective spatial statistical study of influenza, Japan, 1999-2009.

Science.gov (United States)

Shobugawa, Yugo; Wiafe, Seth A; Saito, Reiko; Suzuki, Tsubasa; Inaida, Shinako; Taniguchi, Kiyosu; Suzuki, Hiroshi

2012-06-19

Annual influenza epidemics occur worldwide resulting in considerable morbidity and mortality. Spreading pattern of influenza is not well understood because it is often hampered by the quality of surveillance data that limits the reliability of analysis. In Japan, influenza is reported on a weekly basis from 5,000 hospitals and clinics nationwide under the scheme of the National Infectious Disease Surveillance. The collected data are available to the public as weekly reports which were summarized into number of patient visits per hospital or clinic in each of the 47 prefectures. From this surveillance data, we analyzed the spatial spreading patterns of influenza epidemics using weekly weighted standard distance (WSD) from the 1999/2000 through 2008/2009 influenza seasons in Japan. WSD is a single numerical value representing the spatial compactness of influenza outbreak, which is small in case of clustered distribution and large in case of dispersed distribution. We demonstrated that the weekly WSD value or the measure of spatial compactness of the distribution of reported influenza cases, decreased to its lowest value before each epidemic peak in nine out of ten seasons analyzed. The duration between the lowest WSD week and the peak week of influenza cases ranged from minus one week to twenty weeks. The duration showed significant negative association with the proportion of influenza A/H3N2 cases in early phase of each outbreak (correlation coefficient was -0.75, P = 0.012) and significant positive association with the proportion of influenza B cases in the early phase (correlation coefficient was 0.64, P = 0.045), but positively correlated with the proportion of influenza A/H1N1 strain cases (statistically not significant). It is assumed that the lowest WSD values just before influenza peaks are due to local outbreak which results in small standard distance values. As influenza cases disperse nationwide and an epidemic reaches its peak, WSD value changed to be a

Asymptotic behaviour for a system describing epidemics with migration and spatial spread of infection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kirane, M.; Kouachi, S.

1991-08-01

A parabolic system with linear interactions is considered with specific applications to the spread of infectious diseases. Using a Payne-type functional we prove the global existence of a unique solution and analyze its large time behaviour. (author). 14 refs

The global pattern of urbanization and economic growth: evidence from the last three decades.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Mingxing; Zhang, Hua; Liu, Weidong; Zhang, Wenzhong

2014-01-01

The relationship between urbanization and economic growth has been perplexing. In this paper, we identify the pattern of global change and the correlation of urbanization and economic growth, using cross-sectional, panel estimation and geographic information systems (GIS) methods. The analysis has been carried out on a global geographical scale, while the timescale of the study spans the last 30 years. The data shows that urbanization levels have changed substantially during these three decades. Empirical findings from cross-sectional data and panel data support the general notion of close links between urbanization levels and GDP per capita. However, we also present significant evidence that there is no correlation between urbanization speed and economic growth rate at the global level. Hence, we conclude that a given country cannot obtain the expected economic benefits from accelerated urbanization, especially if it takes the form of government-led urbanization. In addition, only when all facets are taken into consideration can we fully assess the urbanization process.

The global pattern of urbanization and economic growth: evidence from the last three decades.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mingxing Chen

Full Text Available The relationship between urbanization and economic growth has been perplexing. In this paper, we identify the pattern of global change and the correlation of urbanization and economic growth, using cross-sectional, panel estimation and geographic information systems (GIS methods. The analysis has been carried out on a global geographical scale, while the timescale of the study spans the last 30 years. The data shows that urbanization levels have changed substantially during these three decades. Empirical findings from cross-sectional data and panel data support the general notion of close links between urbanization levels and GDP per capita. However, we also present significant evidence that there is no correlation between urbanization speed and economic growth rate at the global level. Hence, we conclude that a given country cannot obtain the expected economic benefits from accelerated urbanization, especially if it takes the form of government-led urbanization. In addition, only when all facets are taken into consideration can we fully assess the urbanization process.

Cancers of the Brain and CNS: Global Patterns and Trends in Incidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Mortazavi, S M J; Mortazavi, S A R; Paknahad, M

2018-03-01

Miranda-Filho et al. in their recently published paper entitled "Cancers of the brain and CNS: global patterns and trends in incidence" provided a global status report of the geographic and temporal variations in the incidence of brain and CNS cancers in different countries across continents worldwide. While the authors confirm the role of genetic risk factors and ionizing radiation exposures, they claimed that no firm conclusion could be drawn about the role of exposure to non-ionizing radiation. The paper authored by Miranda-Filho et al. not only addresses a challenging issue, it can be considered as a good contribution in the field of brain and CNS cancers. However, our correspondence addresses a basic shortcoming of this paper about the role of electromagnetic fields and cancers and provides evidence showing that exposure to radiofrequency electromagnetic fields (RF-EMFs), at least at high levels and long durations, can increases the risk of cancer.

Combinatorics of spreads and parallelisms

CERN Document Server

Johnson, Norman

2010-01-01

Partitions of Vector Spaces Quasi-Subgeometry Partitions Finite Focal-SpreadsGeneralizing André SpreadsThe Going Up Construction for Focal-SpreadsSubgeometry Partitions Subgeometry and Quasi-Subgeometry Partitions Subgeometries from Focal-SpreadsExtended André SubgeometriesKantor's Flag-Transitive DesignsMaximal Additive Partial SpreadsSubplane Covered Nets and Baer Groups Partial Desarguesian t-Parallelisms Direct Products of Affine PlanesJha-Johnson SL(2,

Spatial and temporal patterns of stranded intertidal marine debris: is there a picture of global change?

Science.gov (United States)

Browne, Mark Anthony; Chapman, M Gee; Thompson, Richard C; Amaral Zettler, Linda A; Jambeck, Jenna; Mallos, Nicholas J

2015-06-16

Floating and stranded marine debris is widespread. Increasing sea levels and altered rainfall, solar radiation, wind speed, waves, and oceanic currents associated with climatic change are likely to transfer more debris from coastal cities into marine and coastal habitats. Marine debris causes economic and ecological impacts, but understanding the scope of these requires quantitative information on spatial patterns and trends in the amounts and types of debris at a global scale. There are very few large-scale programs to measure debris, but many peer-reviewed and published scientific studies of marine debris describe local patterns. Unfortunately, methods of defining debris, sampling, and interpreting patterns in space or time vary considerably among studies, yet if data could be synthesized across studies, a global picture of the problem may be avaliable. We analyzed 104 published scientific papers on marine debris in order to determine how to evaluate this. Although many studies were well designed to answer specific questions, definitions of what constitutes marine debris, the methods used to measure, and the scale of the scope of the studies means that no general picture can emerge from this wealth of data. These problems are detailed to guide future studies and guidelines provided to enable the collection of more comparable data to better manage this growing problem.

Evaluating the accuracy of climate change pattern emulation for low warming targets

Science.gov (United States)

Tebaldi, Claudia; Knutti, Reto

2018-05-01

Global climate policy is increasingly debating the value of very low warming targets, yet not many experiments conducted with global climate models in their fully coupled versions are currently available to help inform studies of the corresponding impacts. This raises the question whether a map of warming or precipitation change in a world 1.5 °C warmer than preindustrial can be emulated from existing simulations that reach higher warming targets, or whether entirely new simulations are required. Here we show that also for this type of low warming in strong mitigation scenarios, climate change signals are quite linear as a function of global temperature. Therefore, emulation techniques amounting to linear rescaling on the basis of global temperature change ratios (like simple pattern scaling) provide a viable way forward. The errors introduced are small relative to the spread in the forced response to a given scenario that we can assess from a multi-model ensemble. They are also small relative to the noise introduced into the estimates of the forced response by internal variability within a single model, which we can assess from either control simulations or initial condition ensembles. Challenges arise when scaling inadvertently reduces the inter-model spread or suppresses the internal variability, both important sources of uncertainty for impact assessment, or when the scenarios have very different characteristics in the composition of the forcings. Taking advantage of an available suite of coupled model simulations under low-warming and intermediate scenarios, we evaluate the accuracy of these emulation techniques and show that they are unlikely to represent a substantial contribution to the total uncertainty.

Role of human-mediated dispersal in the spread of the pinewood nematode in China.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christelle Robinet

Full Text Available Intensification of world trade is responsible for an increase in the number of alien species introductions. Human-mediated dispersal promotes not only introductions but also expansion of the species distribution via long-distance dispersal. Thus, understanding the role of anthropogenic pathways in the spread of invading species has become one of the most important challenges nowadays.We analysed the invasion pattern of the pinewood nematode in China based on invasion data from 1982 to 2005 and monitoring data on 7 locations over 15 years. Short distance spread mediated by long-horned beetles was estimated at 7.5 km per year. Infested sites located further away represented more than 90% of observations and the mean long distance spread was estimated at 111-339 km. Railways, river ports, and lakes had significant effects on the spread pattern. Human population density levels explained 87% of the variation in the invasion probability (P<0.05. Since 2001, the number of new records of the nematode was multiplied by a factor of 5 and the spread distance by a factor of 2. We combined a diffusion model to describe the short distance spread with a stochastic, individual based model to describe the long distance jumps. This combined model generated an error of only 13% when used to predict the presence of the nematode. Under two climate scenarios (stable climate or moderate warming, projections of the invasion probability suggest that this pest could expand its distribution 40-55% by 2025.This study provides evidence that human-induced dispersal plays a fundamental role in the spread of the pinewood nematode, and appropriate control measures should be taken to stop or slow its expansion. This model can be applied to Europe, where the nematode had been introduced later, and is currently expanding its distribution. Similar models could also be derived for other species that could be accidentally transported by humans.

International spread of multidrug-resistant Salmonella Schwarzengrund in food products

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Aarestrup, Frank Møller; Hendriksen, Rene S.; Lockett, Jana

2007-01-01

We compared 581 Salmonella enterica serotype Schwarzengrund isolates from persons, food, and food animals in Denmark, Thailand, and the United States by antimicrobial drug susceptibility and pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) typing. Resistance, including resistance to nalidixic acid......, was frequent among isolates from persons and chickens in Thailand, persons in the United States, and food imported from Thailand to Denmark and the United States. A total of 183 PFGE patterns were observed, and 136 (23.4%) isolates had the 3 most common patterns. Seven of 14 isolates from persons in Denmark...... had patterns found in persons and chicken meat in Thailand; 22 of 390 human isolates from the United States had patterns found in Denmark and Thailand. This study suggests spread of multidrug-resistant S. Schwarzengrund from chickens to persons in Thailand, and from imported Thai food products...

Spatio-temporal pattern analysis for evaluation of the spread of human infections with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus in China, 2013-2014.

Science.gov (United States)

Dong, Wen; Yang, Kun; Xu, Quanli; Liu, Lin; Chen, Juan

2017-10-24

A large number (n = 460) of A(H7N9) human infections have been reported in China from March 2013 through December 2014, and H7N9 outbreaks in humans became an emerging issue for China health, which have caused numerous disease outbreaks in domestic poultry and wild bird populations, and threatened human health severely. The aims of this study were to investigate the directional trend of the epidemic and to identify the significant presence of spatial-temporal clustering of influenza A(H7N9) human cases between March 2013 and December 2014. Three distinct epidemic phases of A(H7N9) human infections were identified in this study. In each phase, standard deviational ellipse analysis was conducted to examine the directional trend of disease spreading, and retrospective space-time permutation scan statistic was then used to identify the spatio-temporal cluster patterns of H7N9 outbreaks in humans. The ever-changing location and the increasing size of the three identified standard deviational ellipses showed that the epidemic moved from east to southeast coast, and hence to some central regions, with a future epidemiological trend of continue dispersing to more central regions of China, and a few new human cases might also appear in parts of the western China. Furthermore, A(H7N9) human infections were clustering in space and time in the first two phases with five significant spatio-temporal clusters (p < 0.05), but there was no significant cluster identified in phase III. There was a new epidemiologic pattern that the decrease in significant spatio-temporal cluster of A(H7N9) human infections was accompanied with an obvious spatial expansion of the outbreaks during the study period, and identification of the spatio-temporal patterns of the epidemic can provide valuable insights for better understanding the spreading dynamics of the disease in China.

Intensity-dependent point spread image processing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cornsweet, T.N.; Yellott, J.I.

1984-01-01

There is ample anatomical, physiological and psychophysical evidence that the mammilian retina contains networks that mediate interactions among neighboring receptors, resulting in intersecting transformations between input images and their corresponding neural output patterns. The almost universally accepted view is that the principal form of interaction involves lateral inhibition, resulting in an output pattern that is the convolution of the input with a ''Mexican hat'' or difference-of-Gaussians spread function, having a positive center and a negative surround. A closely related process is widely applied in digital image processing, and in photography as ''unsharp masking''. The authors show that a simple and fundamentally different process, involving no inhibitory or subtractive terms can also account for the physiological and psychophysical findings that have been attributed to lateral inhibition. This process also results in a number of fundamental effects that occur in mammalian vision and that would be of considerable significance in robotic vision, but which cannot be explained by lateral inhibitory interaction

Age, spreading rates, and spreading asymmetry of the world's ocean crust

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The authors present four companion digital models of the age, age uncertainty, spreading rates and spreading asymmetries of the world's ocean basins as geographic...

Greater future global warming inferred from Earth’s recent energy budget

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Patrick T.; Caldeira, Ken

2017-12-01

Climate models provide the principal means of projecting global warming over the remainder of the twenty-first century but modelled estimates of warming vary by a factor of approximately two even under the same radiative forcing scenarios. Across-model relationships between currently observable attributes of the climate system and the simulated magnitude of future warming have the potential to inform projections. Here we show that robust across-model relationships exist between the global spatial patterns of several fundamental attributes of Earth’s top-of-atmosphere energy budget and the magnitude of projected global warming. When we constrain the model projections with observations, we obtain greater means and narrower ranges of future global warming across the major radiative forcing scenarios, in general. In particular, we find that the observationally informed warming projection for the end of the twenty-first century for the steepest radiative forcing scenario is about 15 per cent warmer (+0.5 degrees Celsius) with a reduction of about a third in the two-standard-deviation spread (-1.2 degrees Celsius) relative to the raw model projections reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our results suggest that achieving any given global temperature stabilization target will require steeper greenhouse gas emissions reductions than previously calculated.

Global Reproduction and Transformation of Science Education

Science.gov (United States)

Tobin, Kenneth

2011-01-01

Neoliberalism has spread globally and operates hegemonically in many fields, including science education. I use historical auto/ethnography to examine global referents that have mediated the production of contemporary science education to explore how the roles of teachers and learners are related to macrostructures such as neoliberalism and…

Export Processing Zones and Global Class Formation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Neveling, Patrick

2015-01-01

This chapter is concerned with one of the most striking developments in the global political economy of capitalism after the Second World War; the rise of export processing zones and special economic zones. Building on long-term ethnohistorical research on the zones’ global spread from one zone in

Intermodel spread of the double-ITCZ bias in coupled GCMs tied to land surface temperature in AMIP GCMs

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Wenyu; Xie, Shang-Ping

2017-08-01

Global climate models (GCMs) have long suffered from biases of excessive tropical precipitation in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). The severity of the double-Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) bias, defined here as the interhemispheric difference in zonal mean tropical precipitation, varies strongly among models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble. Models with a more severe double-ITCZ bias feature warmer tropical sea surface temperature (SST) in the SH, coupled with weaker southeast trades. While previous studies focus on coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions, here we show that the intermodel spread in the severity of the double-ITCZ bias is closely related to land surface temperature biases, which can be further traced back to those in the Atmosphere Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations. By perturbing land temperature in models, we demonstrate that cooler land can indeed lead to a more severe double-ITCZ bias by inducing the above coupled SST-trade wind pattern in the tropics. The response to land temperature can be consistently explained from both the dynamic and energetic perspectives. Although this intermodel spread from the land temperature variation does not account for the ensemble model mean double-ITCZ bias, identifying the land temperature effect provides insights into simulating a realistic ITCZ for the right reasons.

The global warming scare

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sunavala, P.D.

1992-01-01

It is argued that the present propaganda about the global warming with its disastrous consequences is a scare spread by some First World countries, especially the United States, to prevent the rapid industrialization of developing third world countries. (author). 6 refs., 1 tab

Ecosystem Interactions Underlie the Spread of Avian Influenza A Viruses with Pandemic Potential.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Justin Bahl

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Despite evidence for avian influenza A virus (AIV transmission between wild and domestic ecosystems, the roles of bird migration and poultry trade in the spread of viruses remain enigmatic. In this study, we integrate ecosystem interactions into a phylogeographic model to assess the contribution of wild and domestic hosts to AIV distribution and persistence. Analysis of globally sampled AIV datasets shows frequent two-way transmission between wild and domestic ecosystems. In general, viral flow from domestic to wild bird populations was restricted to within a geographic region. In contrast, spillover from wild to domestic populations occurred both within and between regions. Wild birds mediated long-distance dispersal at intercontinental scales whereas viral spread among poultry populations was a major driver of regional spread. Viral spread between poultry flocks frequently originated from persistent lineages circulating in regions of intensive poultry production. Our analysis of long-term surveillance data demonstrates that meaningful insights can be inferred from integrating ecosystem into phylogeographic reconstructions that may be consequential for pandemic preparedness and livestock protection.

Ecosystem Interactions Underlie the Spread of Avian Influenza A Viruses with Pandemic Potential

Science.gov (United States)

Bahl, Justin; Pham, Truc T.; Hill, Nichola J.; Hussein, Islam T. M.; Ma, Eric J.; Easterday, Bernard C.; Halpin, Rebecca A.; Stockwell, Timothy B.; Wentworth, David E.; Kayali, Ghazi; Krauss, Scott; Schultz-Cherry, Stacey; Webster, Robert G.; Webby, Richard J.; Swartz, Michael D.; Smith, Gavin J. D.; Runstadler, Jonathan A.

2016-01-01

Despite evidence for avian influenza A virus (AIV) transmission between wild and domestic ecosystems, the roles of bird migration and poultry trade in the spread of viruses remain enigmatic. In this study, we integrate ecosystem interactions into a phylogeographic model to assess the contribution of wild and domestic hosts to AIV distribution and persistence. Analysis of globally sampled AIV datasets shows frequent two-way transmission between wild and domestic ecosystems. In general, viral flow from domestic to wild bird populations was restricted to within a geographic region. In contrast, spillover from wild to domestic populations occurred both within and between regions. Wild birds mediated long-distance dispersal at intercontinental scales whereas viral spread among poultry populations was a major driver of regional spread. Viral spread between poultry flocks frequently originated from persistent lineages circulating in regions of intensive poultry production. Our analysis of long-term surveillance data demonstrates that meaningful insights can be inferred from integrating ecosystem into phylogeographic reconstructions that may be consequential for pandemic preparedness and livestock protection. PMID:27166585

Comparing fire spread algorithms using equivalence testing and neutral landscape models

Science.gov (United States)

Brian R. Miranda; Brian R. Sturtevant; Jian Yang; Eric J. Gustafson

2009-01-01

We demonstrate a method to evaluate the degree to which a meta-model approximates spatial disturbance processes represented by a more detailed model across a range of landscape conditions, using neutral landscapes and equivalence testing. We illustrate this approach by comparing burn patterns produced by a relatively simple fire spread algorithm with those generated by...

Education, Meritocracy and the Global War for Talent

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Phillip; Tannock, Stuart

2009-01-01

Talk of the rise of a global war for talent and emergence of a new global meritocracy has spread from the literature on human resource management to shape nation-state discourse on managed migration and immigration reform. This article examines the implications that the global war for talent have for education policy. Given that this talent war is…

Identifying influential spreaders in complex networks through local effective spreading paths

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Xiaojie; Zhang, Xue; Yi, Dongyun; Zhao, Chengli

2017-05-01

How to effectively identify a set of influential spreaders in complex networks is of great theoretical and practical value, which can help to inhibit the rapid spread of epidemics, promote the sales of products by word-of-mouth advertising, and so on. A naive strategy is to select the top ranked nodes as identified by some centrality indices, and other strategies are mainly based on greedy methods and heuristic methods. However, most of those approaches did not concern the connections between nodes. Usually, the distances between the selected spreaders are very close, leading to a serious overlapping of their influence. As a consequence, the global influence of the spreaders in networks will be greatly reduced, which largely restricts the performance of those methods. In this paper, a simple and efficient method is proposed to identify a set of discrete yet influential spreaders. By analyzing the spreading paths in the network, we present the concept of effective spreading paths and measure the influence of nodes via expectation calculation. The numerical analysis in undirected and directed networks all show that our proposed method outperforms many other centrality-based and heuristic benchmarks, especially in large-scale networks. Besides, experimental results on different spreading models and parameters demonstrates the stability and wide applicability of our method.

Spreading and solidification behavior of molten Si droplets impinging on substrates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nagashio, K.; Murata, H.; Kuribayashi, K.

2004-01-01

This paper focuses on an effect of initial undercoolings on the spreading and solidification behavior of Si dropped on a silicon wafer, which was directly observed through it by the infrared imaging system. For an overheated droplet, the melt spreading occurred first and solidified later. The final splat shape was a typical disc. On the other hand, for a droplet with large initial undercooling, the solidification took place at the faster rate than the melt spreading, which resulted in a spherical shape of final splat. It is indicated that the final shape is considerably affected by the initial undercooling in the measurable-scale experiment with large droplets (∼mm size) and low impingement rates (∼m/s order). Moreover, equiaxed grains were found throughout the quenched surface by an electron backscatter pattern analysis. That is, the microstructure formation was nucleation-controlled since the growth parallel to the substrate was suppressed by the time-dependent contact of melt/substrate governed by the melt deformation

Globalization, culture and psychology.

Science.gov (United States)

Melluish, Steve

2014-10-01

This article outlines the cultural and psychological effects of globalization. It looks at the impact of globalization on identity; ideas of privacy and intimacy; the way we understand and perceive psychological distress; and the development of the profession of psychology around the world. The article takes a critical perspective on globalization, seeing it as aligned with the spread of neoliberal capitalism, a tendency towards cultural homogenization, the imposition of dominant 'global north' ideas and the resultant growing inequalities in health and well-being. However, it also argues that the increased interconnectedness created by globalization allows for greater acknowledgement of our common humanity and for collective efforts to be developed to tackle what are increasingly global problems. This requires the development of more nuanced understandings of cultural differences and of indigenous psychologies.

Methods for simultaneously identifying coherent local clusters with smooth global patterns in gene expression profiles

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lee Yun-Shien

2008-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The hierarchical clustering tree (HCT with a dendrogram 1 and the singular value decomposition (SVD with a dimension-reduced representative map 2 are popular methods for two-way sorting the gene-by-array matrix map employed in gene expression profiling. While HCT dendrograms tend to optimize local coherent clustering patterns, SVD leading eigenvectors usually identify better global grouping and transitional structures. Results This study proposes a flipping mechanism for a conventional agglomerative HCT using a rank-two ellipse (R2E, an improved SVD algorithm for sorting purpose seriation by Chen 3 as an external reference. While HCTs always produce permutations with good local behaviour, the rank-two ellipse seriation gives the best global grouping patterns and smooth transitional trends. The resulting algorithm automatically integrates the desirable properties of each method so that users have access to a clustering and visualization environment for gene expression profiles that preserves coherent local clusters and identifies global grouping trends. Conclusion We demonstrate, through four examples, that the proposed method not only possesses better numerical and statistical properties, it also provides more meaningful biomedical insights than other sorting algorithms. We suggest that sorted proximity matrices for genes and arrays, in addition to the gene-by-array expression matrix, can greatly aid in the search for comprehensive understanding of gene expression structures. Software for the proposed methods can be obtained at http://gap.stat.sinica.edu.tw/Software/GAP.

Global Neural Pattern Similarity as a Common Basis for Categorization and Recognition Memory

Science.gov (United States)

Xue, Gui; Love, Bradley C.; Preston, Alison R.; Poldrack, Russell A.

2014-01-01

Familiarity, or memory strength, is a central construct in models of cognition. In previous categorization and long-term memory research, correlations have been found between psychological measures of memory strength and activation in the medial temporal lobes (MTLs), which suggests a common neural locus for memory strength. However, activation alone is insufficient for determining whether the same mechanisms underlie neural function across domains. Guided by mathematical models of categorization and long-term memory, we develop a theory and a method to test whether memory strength arises from the global similarity among neural representations. In human subjects, we find significant correlations between global similarity among activation patterns in the MTLs and both subsequent memory confidence in a recognition memory task and model-based measures of memory strength in a category learning task. Our work bridges formal cognitive theories and neuroscientific models by illustrating that the same global similarity computations underlie processing in multiple cognitive domains. Moreover, by establishing a link between neural similarity and psychological memory strength, our findings suggest that there may be an isomorphism between psychological and neural representational spaces that can be exploited to test cognitive theories at both the neural and behavioral levels. PMID:24872552

Relation of major volcanic center concentration on Venus to global tectonic patterns

Science.gov (United States)

Crumpler, L. S.; Head, James W.; Aubele, Jayne C.

1993-01-01

Global analysis of Magellan image data indicates that a major concentration of volcanic centers covering about 40 percent of the surface of Venus occurs between the Beta, Atla, and Themis regions. Associated with this enhanced concentration are geological characteristics commonly interpreted as rifting and mantle upwelling. Interconnected low plains in an annulus around this concentration are characterized by crustal shortening and infrequent volcanic centers that may represent sites of mantle return flow and net downwelling. Together, these observations suggest the existence of relatively simple, large-scale patterns of mantle circulation similar to those associated with concentrations of intraplate volcanism on earth.

Global patterns of organic carbon export and sequestration in the ocean (Arne Richter Award for Outstanding Young Scientists)

Science.gov (United States)

Henson, S.; Sanders, R.; Madsen, E.; Le Moigne, F.; Quartly, G.

2012-04-01

A major term in the global carbon cycle is the ocean's biological carbon pump which is dominated by sinking of small organic particles from the surface ocean to its interior. Here we examine global patterns in particle export efficiency (PEeff), the proportion of primary production that is exported from the surface ocean, and transfer efficiency (Teff), the fraction of exported organic matter that reaches the deep ocean. This is achieved through extrapolating from in situ estimates of particulate organic carbon export to the global scale using satellite-derived data. Global scale estimates derived from satellite data show, in keeping with earlier studies, that PEeff is high at high latitudes and low at low latitudes, but that Teff is low at high latitudes and high at low latitudes. However, in contrast to the relationship observed for deep biomineral fluxes in previous studies, we find that Teff is strongly negatively correlated with opal export flux from the upper ocean, but uncorrelated with calcium carbonate export flux. We hypothesise that the underlying factor governing the spatial patterns observed in Teff is ecosystem function, specifically the degree of recycling occurring in the upper ocean, rather than the availability of calcium carbonate for ballasting. Finally, our estimate of global integrated carbon export is only 50% of previous estimates. The lack of consensus amongst different methodologies on the strength of the biological carbon pump emphasises that our knowledge of a major planetary carbon flux remains incomplete.

Medical Tourism, Medical Migration, and Global Justice: Implications for Biosecurity in a Globalized World.

Science.gov (United States)

Cohen, I Glenn

2017-05-01

We live in the age of globalization. In medicine, that globalization has brought many benefits such as the diffusion of technology and the spread of health care training, but it has also brought threats to biosecurity. This article examines how medical tourism and medical migration pose risks to biosecurity. It also argues that designing legal responses to these risks requires not only technical competence but also a theory of global justice to guide that design. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press; all rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Spread of porcine circovirus associated disease (PCVAD in Ontario (Canada swine herds: Part II. Matched case-control study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Young Beth

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The emergence of porcine circovirus associated disease (PCVAD was associated with high mortality in swine populations worldwide. Studies performed in different regions identified spatial, temporal, and spatio-temporal trends as factors contributing to patterns of the disease spread. Patterns consistent with spatial trend and spatio-temporal clustering were already identified in this dataset. On the basis of these results, we have further investigated the nature of local spread in this report. The primary objective of this study was to evaluate risk factors for incidence cases of reported PCVAD. Results A time-matched case-control study was used as a study design approach, and conditional logistic regression as the analytical method. The main exposure of interest was local spread, which was defined as an unidentified mechanism of PCVAD spread between premises located within 3 kilometers of the Euclidean distance. Various modifications of variables indicative of local spread were also evaluated. The dataset contained 278 swine herds from Ontario originally sampled either from diagnostic laboratory submissions or directly from the target population. A PCVAD case was defined on the basis of the producer's recall. Existence of apparent local spread over the entire study period was confirmed (OR = 2.26, 95% CI: 1.06, 4.83, and was further identified to be time-varying in nature - herds experiencing outbreaks in the later part of the epidemic were more likely than control herds to be exposed to neighboring herds experiencing recent PCVAD outbreaks. More importantly, the pattern of local spread was driven by concurrent occurrence of PCVAD on premises under the same ownership (OREXACTwithin ownership = 25.6, 95% CI: 3.4, +inf; OREXACToutside ownership = 1.3, 95% CI: 0.45, 3.3. Other significant factors included PRRSv status of a herd (OREXACT = 1.9, 95% CI: 1.0, 3.9, after adjusting for geographical location by including the binary

Spreading Of Avian Flu On Duck And Its Impact On Social Economy: Lesson Learnt From Avian Flu Cases On Chicken

OpenAIRE

Nyak Ilham

2013-01-01

Bird flu disease that attacks duck dismissed the notion of duck immune to bird flu disease. Learning from the experience of bird flu disease that attacks poultry in the year of 2004-2005, necessary to measure the spread of disease prevention bird flu in ducks. This paper aims to describe the business and trade patterns of duck associated with the spread of avian influenza and predict the socio-economic impact of bird flu on duck farms in Indonesia. Duck rearing patterns mostly are in the e...

The VULCANO spreading programme

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cognet, G.; Laffont, G.; Jegou, C.; Journeau, C.; Sudreau, F.; Pierre, J.; Ramacciotti, M. [CEA (Atomic Energy Commission), DRN/DER - Bat. 212, CEA Cadarache, 13108 St. Paul Lez Durance (France)

1999-07-01

Among the currently studied core-catcher projects, some of them suppose corium spreading before cooling, in particular the EPR (European Pressurized Reactor) core-catcher concept is based on mixing the corium with a special concrete, spreading the molten mixture on a large multi-layer surface cooled from the bottom and subsequently cooling by flooding with water. Therefore, melt spreading deserves intensive investigation in order to determine and quantify key phenomena which govern the stopping of spreading. In France, for some years, the Nuclear Reactor Division of the Atomic Energy Commission (CEA/DRN) has undertaken a large program to improve knowledge on corium behaviour and coolability. This program is based on experimental and theoretical investigations which are finally gathered in scenario and mechanistic computer codes. In this framework, the real material experimental programme, VULCANO, conducted within an European frame, is currently devoted to the study of corium spreading. In 1997 and 1998, several tests have been performed on dry corium spreading with various composition of melts. Although all the observed phenomena, in particular the differences between simulant and real material melts have not been yet totally explained, these tests have already provided a lot of information about: The behaviour of complex mixtures including refractory oxides, silica, iron oxides and in one case iron metal; Spreading progression, which was never stopped in any of these tests by a crust formation at the front; The structure of spread melts (porosity, crusts,...); Physico-chemical interaction between melt and the refractory substratum which was composed of zirconia bricks. (authors)

The VULCANO spreading programme

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cognet, G.; Laffont, G.; Jegou, C.; Journeau, C.; Sudreau, F.; Pierre, J.; Ramacciotti, M.

1999-01-01

Among the currently studied core-catcher projects, some of them suppose corium spreading before cooling, in particular the EPR (European Pressurized Reactor) core-catcher concept is based on mixing the corium with a special concrete, spreading the molten mixture on a large multi-layer surface cooled from the bottom and subsequently cooling by flooding with water. Therefore, melt spreading deserves intensive investigation in order to determine and quantify key phenomena which govern the stopping of spreading. In France, for some years, the Nuclear Reactor Division of the Atomic Energy Commission (CEA/DRN) has undertaken a large program to improve knowledge on corium behaviour and coolability. This program is based on experimental and theoretical investigations which are finally gathered in scenario and mechanistic computer codes. In this framework, the real material experimental programme, VULCANO, conducted within an European frame, is currently devoted to the study of corium spreading. In 1997 and 1998, several tests have been performed on dry corium spreading with various composition of melts. Although all the observed phenomena, in particular the differences between simulant and real material melts have not been yet totally explained, these tests have already provided a lot of information about: The behaviour of complex mixtures including refractory oxides, silica, iron oxides and in one case iron metal; Spreading progression, which was never stopped in any of these tests by a crust formation at the front; The structure of spread melts (porosity, crusts,...); Physico-chemical interaction between melt and the refractory substratum which was composed of zirconia bricks. (authors)

Asymmetric responses to simulated global warming by populations of Colobanthus quitensis along a latitudinal gradient

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Ian S. Acuña-Rodríguez

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The increase in temperature as consequence of the recent global warming has been reported to generate new ice-free areas in the Antarctic continent, facilitating the colonization and spread of plant populations. Consequently, Antarctic vascular plants have been observed extending their southern distribution. But as the environmental conditions toward southern localities become progressively more departed from the species’ physiological optimum, the ecophysiological responses and survival to the expected global warming could be reduced. However, if processes of local adaptation are the main cause of the observed southern expansion, those populations could appear constrained to respond positively to the expected global warming. Using individuals from the southern tip of South America, the South Shetland Islands and the Antarctic Peninsula, we assess with a long term experiment (three years under controlled conditions if the responsiveness of Colobanthus quitensis populations to the expected global warming, is related with their different foliar traits and photoprotective mechanisms along the latitudinal gradient. In addition, we tested if the release of the stress condition by the global warming in these cold environments increases the ecophysiological performance. For this, we describe the latitudinal pattern of net photosynthetic capacity, biomass accumulation, and number of flowers under current and future temperatures respective to each site of origin after three growing seasons. Overall, was found a clinal trend was found in the foliar traits and photoprotective mechanisms in the evaluated C. quitensis populations. On the other hand, an asymmetric response to warming was observed for southern populations in all ecophysiological traits evaluated, suggesting that low temperature is limiting the performance of C. quitensis populations. Our results suggest that under a global warming scenario, plant populations that inhabiting cold zones at

Asymmetric responses to simulated global warming by populations of Colobanthus quitensis along a latitudinal gradient.

Science.gov (United States)

Acuña-Rodríguez, Ian S; Torres-Díaz, Cristian; Hereme, Rasme; Molina-Montenegro, Marco A

2017-01-01

The increase in temperature as consequence of the recent global warming has been reported to generate new ice-free areas in the Antarctic continent, facilitating the colonization and spread of plant populations. Consequently, Antarctic vascular plants have been observed extending their southern distribution. But as the environmental conditions toward southern localities become progressively more departed from the species' physiological optimum, the ecophysiological responses and survival to the expected global warming could be reduced. However, if processes of local adaptation are the main cause of the observed southern expansion, those populations could appear constrained to respond positively to the expected global warming. Using individuals from the southern tip of South America, the South Shetland Islands and the Antarctic Peninsula, we assess with a long term experiment (three years) under controlled conditions if the responsiveness of Colobanthus quitensis populations to the expected global warming, is related with their different foliar traits and photoprotective mechanisms along the latitudinal gradient. In addition, we tested if the release of the stress condition by the global warming in these cold environments increases the ecophysiological performance. For this, we describe the latitudinal pattern of net photosynthetic capacity, biomass accumulation, and number of flowers under current and future temperatures respective to each site of origin after three growing seasons. Overall, was found a clinal trend was found in the foliar traits and photoprotective mechanisms in the evaluated C. quitensis populations. On the other hand, an asymmetric response to warming was observed for southern populations in all ecophysiological traits evaluated, suggesting that low temperature is limiting the performance of C. quitensis populations. Our results suggest that under a global warming scenario, plant populations that inhabiting cold zones at high latitudes could

Emergence and nosocomial spread of carbapenem-resistant OXA-232-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae in Brunei Darussalam

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Abdul Momin, Muhd Haziq Fikry; Liakopoulos, Apostolos; Phee, Lynette M.; Wareham, David W.

2017-01-01

Objectives Carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) are identified as a major global health concern. The success of CRE is facilitated by the emergence, acquisition and spread of successful clones carrying plasmid-encoded resistance genes. In this study, an outbreak of carbapenem-resistant

Novel measurement of spreading pattern of influenza epidemic by using weighted standard distance method: retrospective spatial statistical study of influenza, Japan, 1999–2009

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Shobugawa Yugo

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Annual influenza epidemics occur worldwide resulting in considerable morbidity and mortality. Spreading pattern of influenza is not well understood because it is often hampered by the quality of surveillance data that limits the reliability of analysis. In Japan, influenza is reported on a weekly basis from 5,000 hospitals and clinics nationwide under the scheme of the National Infectious Disease Surveillance. The collected data are available to the public as weekly reports which were summarized into number of patient visits per hospital or clinic in each of the 47 prefectures. From this surveillance data, we analyzed the spatial spreading patterns of influenza epidemics using weekly weighted standard distance (WSD from the 1999/2000 through 2008/2009 influenza seasons in Japan. WSD is a single numerical value representing the spatial compactness of influenza outbreak, which is small in case of clustered distribution and large in case of dispersed distribution. Results We demonstrated that the weekly WSD value or the measure of spatial compactness of the distribution of reported influenza cases, decreased to its lowest value before each epidemic peak in nine out of ten seasons analyzed. The duration between the lowest WSD week and the peak week of influenza cases ranged from minus one week to twenty weeks. The duration showed significant negative association with the proportion of influenza A/H3N2 cases in early phase of each outbreak (correlation coefficient was −0.75, P = 0.012 and significant positive association with the proportion of influenza B cases in the early phase (correlation coefficient was 0.64, P = 0.045, but positively correlated with the proportion of influenza A/H1N1 strain cases (statistically not significant. It is assumed that the lowest WSD values just before influenza peaks are due to local outbreak which results in small standard distance values. As influenza cases disperse nationwide and an

Novel measurement of spreading pattern of influenza epidemic by using weighted standard distance method: retrospective spatial statistical study of influenza, Japan, 1999–2009

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

Background Annual influenza epidemics occur worldwide resulting in considerable morbidity and mortality. Spreading pattern of influenza is not well understood because it is often hampered by the quality of surveillance data that limits the reliability of analysis. In Japan, influenza is reported on a weekly basis from 5,000 hospitals and clinics nationwide under the scheme of the National Infectious Disease Surveillance. The collected data are available to the public as weekly reports which were summarized into number of patient visits per hospital or clinic in each of the 47 prefectures. From this surveillance data, we analyzed the spatial spreading patterns of influenza epidemics using weekly weighted standard distance (WSD) from the 1999/2000 through 2008/2009 influenza seasons in Japan. WSD is a single numerical value representing the spatial compactness of influenza outbreak, which is small in case of clustered distribution and large in case of dispersed distribution. Results We demonstrated that the weekly WSD value or the measure of spatial compactness of the distribution of reported influenza cases, decreased to its lowest value before each epidemic peak in nine out of ten seasons analyzed. The duration between the lowest WSD week and the peak week of influenza cases ranged from minus one week to twenty weeks. The duration showed significant negative association with the proportion of influenza A/H3N2 cases in early phase of each outbreak (correlation coefficient was −0.75, P = 0.012) and significant positive association with the proportion of influenza B cases in the early phase (correlation coefficient was 0.64, P = 0.045), but positively correlated with the proportion of influenza A/H1N1 strain cases (statistically not significant). It is assumed that the lowest WSD values just before influenza peaks are due to local outbreak which results in small standard distance values. As influenza cases disperse nationwide and an epidemic reaches its peak

Human Development Inequality Index and Cancer Pattern: a Global Distributive Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Rezaeian, Shahab; Khazaei, Salman; Khazaei, Somayeh; Mansori, Kamyar; Sanjari Moghaddam, Ali; Ayubi, Erfan

2016-01-01

This study aimed to quantify associations of the human development inequality (HDI) index with incidence, mortality, and mortality to incidence ratios for eight common cancers among different countries. In this ecological study, data about incidence and mortality rates of cancers was obtained from the Global Cancer Project for 169 countries. HDI indices for the same countries was obtained from the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) database. The concentration index was defined as the covariance between cumulative percentage of cancer indicators (incidence, mortality and mortality to incidence ratio) and the cumulative percentage of economic indicators (country economic rank). Results indicated that incidences of cancers of liver, cervix and esophagus were mainly concentrated in countries with a low HDI index while cancers of lung, breast, colorectum, prostate and stomach were concentrated mainly in countries with a high HDI index. The same pattern was observed for mortality from cancer except for prostate cancer that was more concentrated in countries with a low HDI index. Higher MIRs for all cancers were more concentrated in countries with a low HDI index. It was concluded that patterns of cancer occurrence correlate with care disparities at the country level.

Fleet size estimation for spreading operation considering road geometry, weather and traffic

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Steven I-Jy Chien

2014-02-01

Full Text Available Extreme weather conditions(i.e. snow storm in winter time have caused significant travel disruptions and increased delay and traffic accidents. Snow plowing and salt spreading are the most common counter-measures for making our roads safer for motorists. To assist highway maintenance authorities with better planning and allocation of winter maintenance resources, this study introduces an analytical model to estimate the required number of trucks for spreading operation subjective to pre-specified service time constraints considering road geometry, weather and traffic. The complexity of the research problem lies in dealing with heterogeneous road geometry of road sections, truck capacities, spreading patterns, and traffic speeds under different weather conditions and time periods of an event. The proposed model is applied to two maintenance yards with seven road sections in New Jersey (USA, which demonstrates itself fairly practical to be implemented, considering diverse operational conditions.

Of Asian forests and European fields: Eastern U.S. plant invasions in a global floristic context.

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Jason D Fridley

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Biogeographic patterns of species invasions hold important clues to solving the recalcitrant 'who', 'where', and 'why' questions of invasion biology, but the few existing studies make no attempt to distinguish alien floras (all non-native occurrences from invasive floras (rapidly spreading species of significant management concern, nor have invasion biologists asked whether particular habitats are consistently invaded by species from particular regions. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Here I describe the native floristic provenances of the 2629 alien plant taxa of the Eastern Deciduous Forest of the Eastern U.S. (EUS, and contrast these to the subset of 449 taxa that EUS management agencies have labeled 'invasive'. Although EUS alien plants come from all global floristic regions, nearly half (45% have native ranges that include central and northern Europe or the Mediterranean (39%. In contrast, EUS invasive species are most likely to come from East Asia (29%, a pattern that is magnified when the invasive pool is restricted to species that are native to a single floristic region (25% from East Asia, compared to only 11% from northern/central Europe and 2% from the Mediterranean. Moreover, East Asian invaders are mostly woody (56%, compared to just 23% of the total alien flora and are significantly more likely to invade intact forests and riparian areas than European species, which dominate managed or disturbed ecosystems. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These patterns suggest that the often-invoked 'imperialist dogma' view of global invasions equating invasion events with the spread of European colonialism is at best a restricted framework for invasion in disturbed ecosystems. This view must be superseded by a biogeographic invasion theory that is explicitly habitat-specific and can explain why particular world biotas tend to dominate particular environments.

Modelling control of epidemics spreading by long-range interactions.

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Dybiec, Bartłomiej; Kleczkowski, Adam; Gilligan, Christopher A

2009-10-06

We have studied the spread of epidemics characterized by a mixture of local and non-local interactions. The infection spreads on a two-dimensional lattice with the fixed nearest neighbour connections. In addition, long-range dynamical links are formed by moving agents (vectors). Vectors perform random walks, with step length distributed according to a thick-tail distribution. Two distributions are considered in this paper, an alpha-stable distribution describing self-similar vector movement, yet characterized by an infinite variance and an exponential power characterized by a large but finite variance. Such long-range interactions are hard to track and make control of epidemics very difficult. We also allowed for cryptic infection, whereby an infected individual on the lattice can be infectious prior to showing any symptoms of infection or disease. To account for such cryptic spread, we considered a control strategy in which not only detected, i.e. symptomatic, individuals but also all individuals within a certain control neighbourhood are treated upon the detection of disease. We show that it is possible to eradicate the disease by using such purely local control measures, even in the presence of long-range jumps. In particular, we show that the success of local control and the choice of the optimal strategy depend in a non-trivial way on the dispersal patterns of the vectors. By characterizing these patterns using the stability index of the alpha-stable distribution to change the power-law behaviour or the exponent characterizing the decay of an exponential power distribution, we show that infection can be successfully contained using relatively small control neighbourhoods for two limiting cases for long-distance dispersal and for vectors that are much more limited in their dispersal range.

Global Drainage Patterns to Modern Terrestrial Sedimentary Basins and its Influence on Large River Systems

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Nyberg, B.; Helland-Hansen, W.

2017-12-01

Long-term preservation of alluvial sediments is dependent on the hydrological processes that deposit sediments solely within an area that has available accomodation space and net subsidence know as a sedimentary basin. An understanding of the river processes contributing to terrestrial sedimentary basins is essential to fundamentally constrain and quantify controls on the modern terrestrial sink. Furthermore, the terrestrial source to sink controls place constraints on the entire coastal, shelf and deep marine sediment routing systems. In addition, the geographical importance of modern terrestrial sedimentary basins for agriculture and human settlements has resulted in significant upstream anthropogenic catchment modification for irrigation and energy needs. Yet to our knowledge, a global catchment model depicting the drainage patterns to modern terrestrial sedimentary basins has previously not been established that may be used to address these challenging issues. Here we present a new database of 180,737 global catchments that show the surface drainage patterns to modern terrestrial sedimentary basins. This is achieved by using high resolution river networks derived from digital elevation models in relation to newly acquired maps on global modern sedimentary basins to identify terrestrial sinks. The results show that active tectonic regimes are typically characterized by larger terrestrial sedimentary basins, numerous smaller source catchments and a high source to sink relief ratio. To the contrary passive margins drain catchments to smaller terrestrial sedimentary basins, are composed of fewer source catchments that are relatively larger and a lower source to sink relief ratio. The different geomorphological characteristics of source catchments by tectonic setting influence the spatial and temporal patterns of fluvial architecture within sedimentary basins and the anthropogenic methods of exploiting those rivers. The new digital database resource is aimed to help

Magnetic resonance imaging for assessment of parametrial tumour spread and regression patterns in adaptive cervix cancer radiotherapy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schmid, Maximilian P.; Fidarova, Elena [Dept. of Radiotherapy, Comprehensive Cancer Center, Medical Univ. of Vienna, Vienna (Austria)], e-mail: maximilian.schmid@akhwien.at; Poetter, Richard [Dept. of Radiotherapy, Comprehensive Cancer Center, Medical Univ. of Vienna, Vienna (Austria); Christian Doppler Lab. for Medical Radiation Research for Radiation Oncology, Medical Univ. of Vienna (Austria)] [and others

2013-10-15

Purpose: To investigate the impact of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-morphologic differences in parametrial infiltration on tumour response during primary radio chemotherapy in cervical cancer. Material and methods: Eighty-five consecutive cervical cancer patients with FIGO stages IIB (n = 59) and IIIB (n = 26), treated by external beam radiotherapy ({+-}chemotherapy) and image-guided adaptive brachytherapy, underwent T2-weighted MRI at the time of diagnosis and at the time of brachytherapy. MRI patterns of parametrial tumour infiltration at the time of diagnosis were assessed with regard to predominant morphology and maximum extent of parametrial tumour infiltration and were stratified into five tumour groups (TG): 1) expansive with spiculae; 2) expansive with spiculae and infiltrating parts; 3) infiltrative into the inner third of the parametrial space (PM); 4) infiltrative into the middle third of the PM; and 5) infiltrative into the outer third of the PM. MRI at the time of brachytherapy was used for identifying presence (residual vs. no residual disease) and signal intensity (high vs. intermediate) of residual disease within the PM. Left and right PM of each patient were evaluated separately at both time points. The impact of the TG on tumour remission status within the PM was analysed using {chi}2-test and logistic regression analysis. Results: In total, 170 PM were analysed. The TG 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 were present in 12%, 11%, 35%, 25% and 12% of the cases, respectively. Five percent of the PM were tumour-free. Residual tumour in the PM was identified in 19%, 68%, 88%, 90% and 85% of the PM for the TG 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5, respectively. The TG 3 - 5 had significantly higher rates of residual tumour in the PM in comparison to TG 1 + 2 (88% vs. 43%, p < 0.01). Conclusion: MRI-morphologic features of PM infiltration appear to allow for prediction of tumour response during external beam radiotherapy and chemotherapy. A predominantly infiltrative tumour spread at the

Spread of dwarf mistletoe from discrete seed sources into young stands of ponderosa and Jeffrey pines

Science.gov (United States)

J. R. Parmeter Jr.

1972-01-01

The maximum distance of spread of dwarf mistletoes from isolated overstory pines into surrounding reproduction averages 120 feet. The rate of infection in young trees declined as distance from the seed source increased and was generally greatest in the direction of prevailing winds. This pattern of infection was similar to the previously reported pattern of seed...

Evolution of spreading rate and H2 production by serpentinization at mid-ocean ridges from 200 Ma to Present

Science.gov (United States)

Andreani, M.; García del Real, P.; Daniel, I.; Wright, N.; Coltice, N.

2017-12-01

Mid-oceanic ridge (MOR) spreading rate spatially varies today from 20 to 200 mm/yr and geological records attest of important temporal variations, at least during the past 200 My. The spreading rate has a direct impact on the mechanisms accomodating extension (magmatic vs tectonic), hence on the nature of the rocks forming the oceanic lithosphere. The latter is composed of variable amount of magmatic and mantle rocks, that dominate at fast and (ultra-) slow spreading ridges, respectively. Serpentinization of mantle rocks contributes to global fluxes and notably to those of hydrogen and carbon by providing a pathways for dihydrogen (H2) production, carbone storage by mineralization, and carbon reduction to CH4 and possibly complex organic compounds. Quantification of the global chemical impact of serpentinization through geological time requires a coupling of geochemical parameters with plate-tectonic reconstructions. Here we quantify serpentinization extent and concurrent H2 production at MOR from the Jurassic (200 Ma) to present day (0 Ma). We coupled mean values of relevant petro-chemical parameters such as the proportion of mantle rocks, initial iron in olivine, iron redox state in serpentinites, % of serpentinization to high-resolution models of plate motion within the GPlates infrastructure to estimate the lengths in 1 Myr intervals for the global MOR plate boundary (spreading and transform components), and spreading ridges as a function of their rate. The model sensitivity to selected parameters has been tested. The results show that fragmentation of Pangea resulted in elevated H2 rates (>1012 to 1013 mol/yr) starting at 160 Ma compared to Late Mesozoic (<160 Ma) rates (<1011-1012 mol/yr). From 160 Ma to present, the coupled opening of the Atlantic and Indian oceans as well as the variation in spreading rates maintained H2 generation in the 1012 mol/yr level, but with significant excursions mainly related to the length of ultra-slow spreading segments. For

Lateral spread affects nitrogen leaching from urine patches.

Science.gov (United States)

Cichota, Rogerio; Vogeler, Iris; Snow, Val; Shepherd, Mark; McAuliffe, Russell; Welten, Brendon

2018-09-01

Nitrate leaching from urine deposited by grazing animals is a critical constraint for sustainable dairy farming in New Zealand. While considerable progress has been made to understand the fate of nitrogen (N) under urine patches, little consideration has been given to the spread of urinary N beyond the wetted area. In this study, we modelled the lateral spread of nitrogen from the wetted area of a urine patch to the soil outside the patch using a combination of two process-based models (HYDRUS and APSIM). The simulations provided insights on the extent and temporal pattern for the redistribution of N in the soil following a urine deposition and enabled investigating the effect of lateral spread of urinary N on plant growth and N leaching. The APSIM simulation, using an implementation of a dispersion-diffusion function, was tested against experimental data from a field experiment conducted in spring on a well-drained soil. Depending on the geometry considered for the dispersion-diffusion function (plate or cylindrical) the area-averaged N leaching decreased by 8 and 37% compared with simulations without lateral N spread; this was due to additional N uptake from pasture on the edge area. A sensitivity analysis showed that area-averaged pasture growth was not greatly affected by the value of the dispersion factor used in the model, whereas N leaching was very sensitive. Thus, the need to account for the edge effect may depend on the objective of the simulations. The modelling results also showed that considering lateral spread of urinary N was sufficient to describe the experimental data, but plant root uptake across urine patch zones may still be relevant in other conditions. Although further work is needed for improving accuracy, the simulated and experimental results demonstrate that accounting for the edge effect is important for determining N leaching from urine-affected areas. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Global climate change and vector-borne diseases

Science.gov (United States)

Ginsberg, H.S.

2002-01-01

Global warming will have different effects on different diseases because of the complex and idiosynchratic interactions between vectors, hosts, and pathogens that influence transmission dynamics of each pathogen. Human activities, including urbanization, rapid global travel, and vector management, have profound effects on disease transmission that can operate on more rapid time scales than does global climate change. The general concern about global warming encouraging the spread of tropical diseases is legitimate, but the effects vary among diseases, and the ecological implications are difficult to predict.

Patterns of accentuated grey-white differentiation on diffusion-weighted imaging or the apparent diffusion coefficient maps in comatose survivors after global brain injury

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, E.; Sohn, C.-H.; Chang, K.-H.; Chang, H.-W.; Lee, D.H.

2011-01-01

Aim: To determine what disease entities show accentuated grey-white differentiation of the cerebral hemisphere on diffusion-weighted images (DWI) or apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) maps, and whether there is a correlation between the different patterns and the cause of the brain injury. Methods and materials: The DWI and ADC maps of 19 patients with global brain injury were reviewed and evaluated to investigate whether there was a correlation between the different patterns seen on the DWI and ADC maps and the cause of global brain injury. The ADC values were measured for quantitative analysis. Results: There were three different patterns of ADC decrease: a predominant ADC decrease in only the cerebral cortex (n = 8; pattern I); an ADC decrease in both the cerebral cortex and white matter (WM) and a predominant decrease in the WM (n = 9; pattern II); and a predominant ADC decrease in only the WM (n = 3; pattern III). Conclusion: Pattern I is cerebral cortical injury, suggesting cortical laminar necrosis in hypoxic brain injury. Pattern II is cerebral cortical and WM injury, frequently seen in brain death, while pattern 3 is mainly WM injury, especially found in hypoglycaemic brain injury. It is likely that pattern I is decorticate injury and pattern II is decerebrate injury in hypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy.Patterns I and II are found in severe hypoxic brain injury, and pattern II is frequently shown in brain death, whereas pattern III was found in severe hypoglycaemic injury.

Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate.

Science.gov (United States)

Milly, P C D; Dunne, K A; Vecchia, A V

2005-11-17

Water availability on the continents is important for human health, economic activity, ecosystem function and geophysical processes. Because the saturation vapour pressure of water in air is highly sensitive to temperature, perturbations in the global water cycle are expected to accompany climate warming. Regional patterns of warming-induced changes in surface hydroclimate are complex and less certain than those in temperature, however, with both regional increases and decreases expected in precipitation and runoff. Here we show that an ensemble of 12 climate models exhibits qualitative and statistically significant skill in simulating observed regional patterns of twentieth-century multidecadal changes in streamflow. These models project 10-40% increases in runoff in eastern equatorial Africa, the La Plata basin and high-latitude North America and Eurasia, and 10-30% decreases in runoff in southern Africa, southern Europe, the Middle East and mid-latitude western North America by the year 2050. Such changes in sustainable water availability would have considerable regional-scale consequences for economies as well as ecosystems.

Global patterns and predictions of seafloor biomass using random forests.

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Chih-Lin Wei

Full Text Available A comprehensive seafloor biomass and abundance database has been constructed from 24 oceanographic institutions worldwide within the Census of Marine Life (CoML field projects. The machine-learning algorithm, Random Forests, was employed to model and predict seafloor standing stocks from surface primary production, water-column integrated and export particulate organic matter (POM, seafloor relief, and bottom water properties. The predictive models explain 63% to 88% of stock variance among the major size groups. Individual and composite maps of predicted global seafloor biomass and abundance are generated for bacteria, meiofauna, macrofauna, and megafauna (invertebrates and fishes. Patterns of benthic standing stocks were positive functions of surface primary production and delivery of the particulate organic carbon (POC flux to the seafloor. At a regional scale, the census maps illustrate that integrated biomass is highest at the poles, on continental margins associated with coastal upwelling and with broad zones associated with equatorial divergence. Lowest values are consistently encountered on the central abyssal plains of major ocean basins The shift of biomass dominance groups with depth is shown to be affected by the decrease in average body size rather than abundance, presumably due to decrease in quantity and quality of food supply. This biomass census and associated maps are vital components of mechanistic deep-sea food web models and global carbon cycling, and as such provide fundamental information that can be incorporated into evidence-based management.

Global patterns of diversity and selection in human tyrosinase gene.

Science.gov (United States)

Hudjashov, Georgi; Villems, Richard; Kivisild, Toomas

2013-01-01

Global variation in skin pigmentation is one of the most striking examples of environmental adaptation in humans. More than two hundred loci have been identified as candidate genes in model organisms and a few tens of these have been found to be significantly associated with human skin pigmentation in genome-wide association studies. However, the evolutionary history of different pigmentation genes is rather complex: some loci have been subjected to strong positive selection, while others evolved under the relaxation of functional constraints in low UV environment. Here we report the results of a global study of the human tyrosinase gene, which is one of the key enzymes in melanin production, to assess the role of its variation in the evolution of skin pigmentation differences among human populations. We observe a higher rate of non-synonymous polymorphisms in the European sample consistent with the relaxation of selective constraints. A similar pattern was previously observed in the MC1R gene and concurs with UV radiation-driven model of skin color evolution by which mutations leading to lower melanin levels and decreased photoprotection are subject to purifying selection at low latitudes while being tolerated or even favored at higher latitudes because they facilitate UV-dependent vitamin D production. Our coalescent date estimates suggest that the non-synonymous variants, which are frequent in Europe and North Africa, are recent and have emerged after the separation of East and West Eurasian populations.

The Global Internet Pandemic

Science.gov (United States)

Carter, Deborah Joy

2009-01-01

The global rise of Internet-based education is discussed in relation to models drawn from social studies and epidemiology. Experiential and data density models are highlighted, also the capacity for technological change, and phenomena observed in the spread of disease. The lesson of these illustrations is that even apparently permanent phenomena…

Journalism in the jaw of globalism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Đorđević Živorad

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Globalism has always been an important factor of both survival and development of human civilization. However, contemporary processes of globalization are founded upon accomplishment of interests of powerful states, powerful individuals and their domination. Journalism has made a great contribution to the accomplishment of goals of contemporary globalism. Instead of creative engagement in spreading of truth and objective informing, journalists are becoming transmission in publicity control and redirecting of its consciousness toward virtual. Hence the weaking of position and reputation of journalism.

Unveiling hidden properties of young star clusters: differential reddening, star-formation spread, and binary fraction

Science.gov (United States)

Bonatto, C.; Lima, E. F.; Bica, E.

2012-04-01

Context. Usually, important parameters of young, low-mass star clusters are very difficult to obtain by means of photometry, especially when differential reddening and/or binaries occur in large amounts. Aims: We present a semi-analytical approach (ASAmin) that, when applied to the Hess diagram of a young star cluster, is able to retrieve the values of mass, age, star-formation spread, distance modulus, foreground and differential reddening, and binary fraction. Methods: The global optimisation method known as adaptive simulated annealing (ASA) is used to minimise the residuals between the observed and simulated Hess diagrams of a star cluster. The simulations are realistic and take the most relevant parameters of young clusters into account. Important features of the simulations are a normal (Gaussian) differential reddening distribution, a time-decreasing star-formation rate, the unresolved binaries, and the smearing effect produced by photometric uncertainties on Hess diagrams. Free parameters are cluster mass, age, distance modulus, star-formation spread, foreground and differential reddening, and binary fraction. Results: Tests with model clusters built with parameters spanning a broad range of values show that ASAmin retrieves the input values with a high precision for cluster mass, distance modulus, and foreground reddening, but they are somewhat lower for the remaining parameters. Given the statistical nature of the simulations, several runs should be performed to obtain significant convergence patterns. Specifically, we find that the retrieved (absolute minimum) parameters converge to mean values with a low dispersion as the Hess residuals decrease. When applied to actual young clusters, the retrieved parameters follow convergence patterns similar to the models. We show how the stochasticity associated with the early phases may affect the results, especially in low-mass clusters. This effect can be minimised by averaging out several twin clusters in the

Spatio-Temporal Patterns and Climate Variables Controlling of Biomass Carbon Stock of Global Grassland Ecosystems from 1982 to 2006

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Jiangzhou Xia

2014-02-01

Full Text Available Grassland ecosystems play an important role in subsistence agriculture and the global carbon cycle. However, the global spatio-temporal patterns and environmental controls of grassland biomass are not well quantified and understood. The goal of this study was to estimate the spatial and temporal patterns of the global grassland biomass and analyze their driving forces using field measurements, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI time series from satellite data, climate reanalysis data, and a satellite-based statistical model. Results showed that the NDVI-based biomass carbon model developed from this study explained 60% of the variance across 38 sites globally. The global carbon stock in grassland aboveground live biomass was 1.05 Pg·C, averaged from 1982 to 2006, and increased at a rate of 2.43 Tg·C·y−1 during this period. Temporal change of the global biomass was significantly and positively correlated with temperature and precipitation. The distribution of biomass carbon density followed the precipitation gradient. The dynamics of regional grassland biomass showed various trends largely determined by regional climate variability, disturbances, and management practices (such as grazing for meat production. The methods and results from this study can be used to monitor the dynamics of grassland aboveground biomass and evaluate grassland susceptibility to climate variability and change, disturbances, and management.

How does increasing immunity change spread kernel parameters in subsequent outbreaks? – A simulation study on Bluetongue Virus

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Græsbøll, Kaare; Bødker, Rene; Enøe, Claes

Modelling the spatial spread of vector borne diseases, one may choose methods ranging from statistic to process oriented. One often used statistic tool is the empirical spread kernel. An empiric spread kernel fitted to outbreak data provides hints on the spread mechanisms, and may provide a good...... estimate on how future epidemics could proceed under similar conditions. However, a number of variables influence the spread of vector borne diseases. If one of these changes significantly after an outbreak, it needs to be incorporated into the model to improve the prediction on future outbreaks. Examples...... of such changes are: vaccinations, acquired immunity, vector density and control, meteorological variations, wind pattern, and so on. Including more and more variables leads to a more process oriented model. A full process oriented approach simulates the movement of virus between vectors and host, describing...

Disease spread across multiple scales in a spatial hierarchy: effect of host spatial structure and of inoculum quantity and distribution.

Science.gov (United States)

Gosme, Marie; Lucas, Philippe

2009-07-01

Spatial patterns of both the host and the disease influence disease spread and crop losses. Therefore, the manipulation of these patterns might help improve control strategies. Considering disease spread across multiple scales in a spatial hierarchy allows one to capture important features of epidemics developing in space without using explicitly spatialized variables. Thus, if the system under study is composed of roots, plants, and planting hills, the effect of host spatial pattern can be studied by varying the number of plants per planting hill. A simulation model based on hierarchy theory was used to simulate the effects of large versus small planting hills, low versus high level of initial infections, and aggregated versus uniform distribution of initial infections. The results showed that aggregating the initially infected plants always resulted in slower epidemics than spreading out the initial infections uniformly. Simulation results also showed that, in most cases, disease epidemics were slower in the case of large host aggregates (100 plants/hill) than with smaller aggregates (25 plants/hill), except when the initially infected plants were both numerous and spread out uniformly. The optimal strategy for disease control depends on several factors, including initial conditions. More importantly, the model offers a framework to account for the interplay between the spatial characteristics of the system, rates of infection, and aggregation of the disease.

Interrogating globalization and culture in anthropological perspective the Indian experience

OpenAIRE

Mondal, Sekh

2012-01-01

The present article is an attempt to examine and highlight the issues of cultural globalization and globalization of cultures with particular reference to India. To deal with these, I will discuss and analyze the concepts of globalization, cultural globalization and the nature of interrelation between global and local cultures in general and of India in particular. How the non-Indian global cultural elements are spreading among the Indians and how the Indian cultural elements are diffusing ov...

Reverse preferential spread in complex networks

Science.gov (United States)

Toyoizumi, Hiroshi; Tani, Seiichi; Miyoshi, Naoto; Okamoto, Yoshio

2012-08-01

Large-degree nodes may have a larger influence on the network, but they can be bottlenecks for spreading information since spreading attempts tend to concentrate on these nodes and become redundant. We discuss that the reverse preferential spread (distributing information inversely proportional to the degree of the receiving node) has an advantage over other spread mechanisms. In large uncorrelated networks, we show that the mean number of nodes that receive information under the reverse preferential spread is an upper bound among any other weight-based spread mechanisms, and this upper bound is indeed a logistic growth independent of the degree distribution.

Epidemic spreading between two coupled subpopulations with inner structures

Science.gov (United States)

Ruan, Zhongyuan; Tang, Ming; Gu, Changgui; Xu, Jinshan

2017-10-01

The structure of underlying contact network and the mobility of agents are two decisive factors for epidemic spreading in reality. Here, we study a model consisting of two coupled subpopulations with intra-structures that emphasizes both the contact structure and the recurrent mobility pattern of individuals simultaneously. We show that the coupling of the two subpopulations (via interconnections between them and round trips of individuals) makes the epidemic threshold in each subnetwork to be the same. Moreover, we find that the interconnection probability between two subpopulations and the travel rate are important factors for spreading dynamics. In particular, as a function of interconnection probability, the epidemic threshold in each subpopulation decreases monotonously, which enhances the risks of an epidemic. While the epidemic threshold displays a non-monotonic variation as travel rate increases. Moreover, the asymptotic infected density as a function of travel rate in each subpopulation behaves differently depending on the interconnection probability.

[Globalization and infectious diseases: the past and future].

Science.gov (United States)

Scotto, Gaetano

2011-03-01

Globalization is a widely-used term that can be defined in a number of different ways. When used in an economic context, it refers to the reduction and removal of barriers between national borders in order to facilitate the flow of goods, capital, services and labour. Globalization is not a new phenomenon. Today the concept of globalization can be extended to include global exposure to infectious diseases, which is becoming more apparent. The aim of this article is to examine the influence of globalization on the outbreak and spread of infections in the world.

Volcanic spreading forcing and feedback in geothermal reservoir development, Amiata Volcano, Italia

Science.gov (United States)

Borgia, Andrea; Mazzoldi, Alberto; Brunori, Carlo Alberto; Allocca, Carmine; Delcroix, Carlo; Micheli, Luigi; Vercellino, Alberto; Grieco, Giovanni

2014-09-01

We made a stratigraphic, structural and morphologic study of the Amiata Volcano in Italy. We find that the edifice is dissected by intersecting grabens that accommodate the collapse of the higher sectors of the volcano. In turn, a number of compressive structures and diapirs exist around the margin of the volcano. These structures create an angular drainage pattern, with stream damming and captures, and a set of lakes within and around the volcano. We interpret these structures as the result of volcanic spreading of Amiata on its weak substratum, formed by the late Triassic evaporites (Burano Anhydrites) and the Middle-Jurassic to Early-Cretaceous clayey chaotic complexes (Ligurian Complex). Regional doming created a slope in the basement facilitating the outward flow and spreading of the ductile layers forced by the volcanic load. We model the dynamics of spreading with a scaled lubrication approximation of the Navier Stokes equations, and numerically study a set of solutions. In the model we include simple functions for volcanic deposition and surface erosion that change the topography over time. Scaling indicates that spreading at Amiata could still be active. The numerical solution shows that, as the central part of the edifice sinks into the weak basement, diapiric structures of the underlying formations form around the base of the volcano. Deposition of volcanic rocks within the volcano and surface erosion away from it both enhance spreading. In addition, a sloping basement may constitute a trigger for spreading and formation of trains of adjacent diapirs. As a feedback, the hot hydrothermal fluids decrease the shear strength of the anhydrites facilitating the spreading process. Finally, we observe that volcanic spreading has created ideal heat traps that constitute todays' exploited geothermal fields at Amiata. Normal faults generated by volcanic spreading, volcanic conduits, and direct contact between volcanic rocks (which host an extensive fresh

How Is Mono Spread?

Science.gov (United States)

... How Is Mono Spread? Print My sister has mononucleosis. I drank out of her drink before we ... that I have mono now? – Kyle* Mono, or mononucleosis, is spread through direct contact with saliva. This ...

Module-based complexity formation: periodic patterning in feathers and hairs.

Science.gov (United States)

Chuong, Cheng-Ming; Yeh, Chao-Yuan; Jiang, Ting-Xin; Widelitz, Randall

2013-01-01

Patterns describe order which emerges from homogeneity. Complex patterns on the integument are striking because of their visibility throughout an organism’s lifespan. Periodic patterning is an effective design because the ensemble of hair or feather follicles (modules) allows the generation of complexity, including regional variations and cyclic regeneration, giving the skin appendages a new lease on life. Spatial patterns include the arrangements of feathers and hairs in specific number, size, and spacing.We explorehowa field of equivalent progenitor cells can generate periodically arranged modules based on genetic information, physical–chemical rules and developmental timing. Reconstitution experiments suggest a competitive equilibrium regulated by activators/inhibitors involving Turing reaction-diffusion. Temporal patterns result from oscillating stem cell activities within each module (microenvironment regulation), reflected as growth (anagen) and resting (telogen) phases during the cycling of feather and hair follicles. Stimulating modules with activators initiates the spread of regenerative hair waves, while global inhibitors outside each module (macroenvironment) prevent this. Different wave patterns can be simulated by cellular automata principles. Hormonal status and seasonal changes can modulate appendage phenotypes, leading to ‘organ metamorphosis’, with multiple ectodermal organ phenotypes generated from the same precursors. We discuss potential novel evolutionary steps using this module-based complexity in several amniote integument organs, exemplified by the spectacular peacock feather pattern. We thus explore the application of the acquired knowledge of patterning in tissue engineering. New hair follicles can be generated after wounding. Hairs and feathers can be reconstituted through self-organization of dissociated progenitor cells. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Global patterns and trends in human-wildlife conflict compensation.

Science.gov (United States)

Ravenelle, Jeremy; Nyhus, Philip J

2017-12-01

Human-wildlife conflict is a major conservation challenge, and compensation for wildlife damage is a widely used economic tool to mitigate this conflict. The effectiveness of this management tool is widely debated. The relative importance of factors associated with compensation success is unclear, and little is known about global geographic or taxonomic differences in the application of compensation programs. We reviewed research on wildlife-damage compensation to determine geographic and taxonomic gaps, analyze patterns of positive and negative comments related to compensation, and assess the relative magnitude of global compensation payments. We analyzed 288 publications referencing wildlife compensation and identified 138 unique compensation programs. These publications reported US$222 million (adjusted for inflation) spent on compensation in 50 countries since 1980. Europeans published the most articles, and compensation funding was highest in Europe, where depredation by wolves and bears was the most frequently compensated damage. Authors of the publications we reviewed made twice as many negative comments as positive comments about compensation. Three-quarters of the negative comments related to program administration. Conversely, three-quarters of the positive comments related to program outcomes. The 3 most common suggestions to improve compensation programs included requiring claimants to employ damage-prevention practices, such as improving livestock husbandry or fencing of crops to receive compensation (n = 25, 15%); modifying ex post compensation schemes to some form of outcome-based performance payment (n = 21, 12%); and altering programs to make compensation payments more quickly (n = 14, 8%). We suggest that further understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of compensation as a conflict-mitigation tool will require more systematic evaluation of the factors driving these opinions and that differentiating process and outcomes and understanding

The Mirage of Global Democracy

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Wilde, J.H.

The literature about global democracy deals with two different types of democratization: Type 1 is about spreading democracy across sovereign states as the basis for good governance. It focuses on the quality of the state/society-nexus: the balance between coercion, reward and identity. Type 2 is

The global partnership: its achievements, missed opportunities and potential to address future threats from the spread of CBRN materials and expertise - 59335

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heyes, Alan; Bowen, Wyn; Chalmers, Hugh

2012-01-01

Document available in abstract form only. Full text of publication follows: In 2002, the G8 launched the Global Partnership (GP) against the Spread of Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction. The partnerships budget was placed at $20 billion over 10 years, and it was supported by some 23 countries and the European Union (EU).Though it has had little public recognition, the partnership has been one of the G8's most successful initiatives and has led to many benefits, including improved international security and addressing a sizeable proportion of the Cold War nuclear and chemical weapons arsenal in the Former Soviet Union. Its future, however, remains undecided, as its funding is set to expire in less than two years. In 2009 and 2010 Kings College London with generous funding support from the US John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, carried out a detailed evaluation of the achievements and benefits of the GP to date, its failings and lost opportunities, and potential future direction. Our findings indicate that the partnership has aided security in the Former Soviet Union and had a significant number of wider benefits with the potential to continue to do the same on a broader geographic level in future. As such, it is a valuable tool to assist the international community to work together to address global threats relating to chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear materials and related expertise and the G8 should take steps to renew its funding. (authors)

Limit-order book resiliency after effective market orders: spread, depth and intensity

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Hai-Chuan; Chen, Wei; Xiong, Xiong; Zhang, Wei; Zhou, Wei-Xing; Stanley, H. Eugene

2017-07-01

In order-driven markets, limit-order book (LOB) resiliency is an important microscopic indicator of market quality when the order book is hit by a liquidity shock and plays an essential role in the design of optimal submission strategies of large orders. However, the evolutionary behavior of LOB resilience around liquidity shocks is not well understood empirically. Using order flow data sets of Chinese stocks, we quantify and compare the LOB dynamics characterized by the bid-ask spread, the LOB depth and the order intensity surrounding effective market orders with different aggressiveness. We find that traders are more likely to submit effective market orders when the spreads are relatively low, the same-side depth is high, and the opposite-side depth is low. Such phenomenon is especially significant when the initial spread is 1 tick. Although the resiliency patterns show obvious diversity after different types of market orders, the spread and depth can return to the sample average within 20 best limit updates. The price resiliency behavior is dominant following aggressive market buy orders, while the price continuation behavior is dominant following less-aggressive market sell orders. Moreover, the resiliency stimulus of buy-sell shock is asymmetrical. The intensities of limit sell orders after market buy orders’ shock are always higher than the intensities of limit buy orders after market sell orders’ shock. The resiliency behavior of spread and depth is linked to limit order intensity.

Genomic analysis of globally diverse Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains provides insights into emergence and spread of multidrug resistance

Science.gov (United States)

Manson, Abigail L.; Cohen, Keira A.; Abeel, Thomas; Desjardins, Christopher A.; Armstrong, Derek T.; Barry, Clifton E.; Brand, Jeannette; Chapman, Sinéad B.; Cho, Sang-Nae; Gabrielian, Andrei; Gomez, James; Jodals, Andreea M.; Joloba, Moses; Jureen, Pontus; Lee, Jong Seok; Malinga, Lesibana; Maiga, Mamoudou; Nordenberg, Dale; Noroc, Ecaterina; Romancenco, Elena; Salazar, Alex; Ssengooba, Willy; Velayati, A. A.; Winglee, Kathryn; Zalutskaya, Aksana; Via, Laura E.; Cassell, Gail H.; Dorman, Susan E.; Ellner, Jerrold; Farnia, Parissa; Galagan, James E.; Rosenthal, Alex; Crudu, Valeriu; Homorodean, Daniela; Hsueh, Po-Ren; Narayanan, Sujatha; Pym, Alexander S.; Skrahina, Alena; Swaminathan, Soumya; Van der Walt, Martie; Alland, David; Bishai, William R.; Cohen, Ted; Hoffner, Sven; Birren, Bruce W.; Earl, Ashlee M.

2017-01-01

Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB), caused by drug resistant strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis, is an increasingly serious problem worldwide. In this study, we examined a dataset of 5,310 M. tuberculosis whole genome sequences from five continents. Despite great diversity with respect to geographic point of isolation, genetic background and drug resistance, patterns of drug resistance emergence were conserved globally. We have identified harbinger mutations that often precede MDR. In particular, the katG S315T mutation, conferring resistance to isoniazid, overwhelmingly arose before rifampicin resistance across all lineages, geographic regions, and time periods. Molecular diagnostics that include markers for rifampicin resistance alone will be insufficient to identify pre-MDR strains. Incorporating knowledge of pre-MDR polymorphisms, particularly katG S315, into molecular diagnostics will enable targeted treatment of patients with pre-MDR-TB to prevent further development of MDR-TB. PMID:28092681

Effect of Heterogeneity of Vertex Activation on Epidemic Spreading in Temporal Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yixin Zhu

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Development of sensor technologies and the prevalence of electronic communication services provide us with a huge amount of data on human communication behavior, including face-to-face conversations, e-mail exchanges, phone calls, message exchanges, and other types of interactions in various online forums. These indirect or direct interactions form potential bridges of the virus spread. For a long time, the study of virus spread is based on the aggregate static network. However, the interaction patterns containing diverse temporal properties may affect dynamic processes as much as the network topology does. Some empirical studies show that the activation time and duration of vertices and links are highly heterogeneous, which means intense activity may be followed by longer intervals of inactivity. We take heterogeneous distribution of the node interactivation time as the research background to build an asynchronous communication model. The two sides of the communication do not have to be active at the same time. One derives the threshold of virus spreading on the communication mode and analyzes the reason the heterogeneous distribution of the vertex interactivation time suppresses the spread of virus. At last, the analysis and results from the model are verified on the BA network.

Uncertainty in Indian Ocean Dipole response to global warming: the role of internal variability

Science.gov (United States)

Hui, Chang; Zheng, Xiao-Tong

2018-01-01

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is one of the leading modes of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). The response of IOD to global warming is quite uncertain in climate model projections. In this study, the uncertainty in IOD change under global warming, especially that resulting from internal variability, is investigated based on the community earth system model large ensemble (CESM-LE). For the IOD amplitude change, the inter-member uncertainty in CESM-LE is about 50% of the intermodel uncertainty in the phase 5 of the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble, indicating the important role of internal variability in IOD future projection. In CESM-LE, both the ensemble mean and spread in mean SST warming show a zonal positive IOD-like (pIOD-like) pattern in the TIO. This pIOD-like mean warming regulates ocean-atmospheric feedbacks of the interannual IOD mode, and weakens the skewness of the interannual variability. However, as the changes in oceanic and atmospheric feedbacks counteract each other, the inter-member variability in IOD amplitude change is not correlated with that of the mean state change. Instead, the ensemble spread in IOD amplitude change is correlated with that in ENSO amplitude change in CESM-LE, reflecting the close inter-basin relationship between the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean in this model.

Isolation of multi-drug resistant Paenibacillus sp. from fertile soil: An imminent menace of spreading resistance.

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Pednekar, P.B.; Jain, R.; Thakur, N.L.; Mahajan, G.B.

There are a good number of reports in the literature stating spread of resistance from normal soil flora to nosocomial microorganism through various ways. Similarly during the study of antimicrobial susceptibility pattern in the microflora, a multi...

Hybrid spread spectrum radio system

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Stephen F [London, TN; Dress, William B [Camas, WA

2010-02-09

Systems and methods are described for hybrid spread spectrum radio systems. A method, includes receiving a hybrid spread spectrum signal including: fast frequency hopping demodulating and direct sequence demodulating a direct sequence spread spectrum signal, wherein multiple frequency hops occur within a single data-bit time and each bit is represented by chip transmissions at multiple frequencies.

Thyroid Autoantibodies Display both “Original Antigenic Sin” and Epitope Spreading

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sandra M. McLachlan

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Evidence for original antigenic sin in spontaneous thyroid autoimmunity is revealed by autoantibody interactions with immunodominant regions on thyroid autoantigens, thyroglobulin (Tg, thyroid peroxidase (TPO, and the thyrotropin receptor (TSHR A-subunit. In contrast, antibodies induced by immunization of rabbits or mice recognize diverse epitopes. Recognition of immunodominant regions persists despite fluctuations in autoantibody levels following treatment or over time. The enhancement of spontaneously arising pathogenic TSHR antibodies in transgenic human thyrotropin receptor/NOD.H2h4 mice by injecting a non-pathogenic form of TSHR A-subunit protein also provides evidence for original antigenic sin. From other studies, antigen presentation by B cells, not dendritic cells, is likely responsible for original antigenic sin. Recognition of restricted epitopes on the large glycosylated thyroid autoantigens (60-kDa A-subunit, 100-kDa TPO, and 600-kDa Tg facilitates exploring the amino acid locations in the immunodominant regions. Epitope spreading has also been revealed by autoantibodies in thyroid autoimmunity. In humans, and in mice that spontaneously develop autoimmunity to all three thyroid autoantigens, autoantibodies develop first to Tg and later to TPO and the TSHR A-subunit. The pattern of intermolecular epitope spreading is related in part to the thyroidal content of Tg, TPO and TSHR A-subunit and to the molecular sizes of these proteins. Importantly, the epitope spreading pattern provides a rationale for future antigen-specific manipulation to block the development of all thyroid autoantibodies by inducing tolerance to Tg, first in the autoantigen cascade. Because of its abundance, Tg may be the autoantigen of choice to explore antigen-specific treatment, preventing the development of pathogenic TSHR antibodies.

Aristides Leão: a birth centennial homage with comments on his spreading depression

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eliasz Engelhardt

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The year of 2014 is the birth centenary of Aristides Azevedo Pacheco Leão (1914-1993, and also marks seventy years of the publication of his discovery of the novel electrophysiological phenomenon, named by him “spreading depression” (SD, soon designated “Leão’s wave” or “Leão’s spreading depression”. This was a remarkable scientific milestone, and the author must be celebrated for this achievement, as the studies he triggered proceeded worldwide, with new concepts, as spreading depolarization, until the present days. Robust experimental and clinical evidence emerged to suggest that these and related electrophysiological phenomena are involved in the mechanisms of migraine aura, acute cerebrovascular diseases, traumatic brain injury, transient global amnesia, epileptic seizures, and their pathophysiological characteristics come to offer new therapeutic perspectives. He was a remarkable and complex personality, and the authors remit the readers to a paper where his personal life is contemplated.

Metastatic spread pattern after curative colorectal cancer surgery. A retrospective, longitudinal analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Augestad, K M; Bakaki, P M; Rose, J; Crawshaw, B P; Lindsetmo, R O; Dørum, L M; Koroukian, S M; Delaney, C P

2015-10-01

The most common sites of colorectal cancer (CRC) recurrence are the local tissues, liver or lungs. The objective was to identify risk factors associated with the primary CRC tumor and cancer recurrence in these anatomical sites. Retrospective, longitudinal analyses of data on CRC survivors. Multivariable Cox regression analysis was performed to examine the association between possible cofounders with recurrence to various anatomical sites. Data for 10,398CRC survivors (tumor location right colon=3870, left colon=2898, high rectum=2569, low rectum=1061) were analyzed; follow up time was up to five years. Mean age at curative surgery was 71.5 (SD 11.8) years, 20.2% received radio-chemotherapy, stage T3 (64.4%) and N0 (65.1%) were most common. Overall 1632 (15.7%) had cancer recurrence (Isolated liver n=412, 3,8%;  isolated lung n=252, 2,4%; isolated local n=223, 2.1%). Risk factors associated with recurrent CRC were identified, i.e. isolated liver metastases (male: Adjusted Hazard Ratio (AHR) 1,45; colon left: AHR 1,63; N2 disease: AHR 3,35; T2 disease: AHR 2,82), isolated lung metastases (colon left: AHR 1,53; rectum high: AHR 2,48; rectum low: AHR 2,65; N2 disease 3,76), and local recurrence (glands examined<12: AHR 1,51; CRM <3mm: AHR 1,60; rectum high: AHR 2,15; N2 disease: AHR 2,58) (all p values <0001). Our study finds that the site of the primary CRC tumor is associated with location of subsequent metastasis. Left sided colon cancers have increased risk of metastatic spread to the liver, whereas rectal cancers have increased risk of local recurrence and metastatic spread to the lungs. These results, in combination with other risk factors for CRC recurrence, should be taken into consideration when designing risk adapted post-treatment CRC surveillance programs. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Geographical spread of global emissions: Within-country inequalities are large and increasing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sauter, Caspar; Grether, Jean-Marie; Mathys, Nicole A.

2016-01-01

In spite of the extensive literature on greenhouse gas emission inequalities at the world-wide level, most of the evidence so far has been based on country-level data. However, the within-country dimension matters for both the implementation and the policy formation of climate policies. As a preliminary step towards a better understanding of within-country inequalities, this paper measures their extent for the two major greenhouse gases, CO_2 and CH_4, over the 1970–2008 period. Using Theil-index decompositions, we show that within-country inequalities account for the bulk of global inequality, and tend to increase over the sample period, in contrast with diminishing between-country inequalities. Including differences across sectors reveals that between-sector inequalities matter more than between-country inequalities, and between-sector inequalities become the dominant source of global inequality at the end of the sample period in the CO_2 case. Finally, estimated social tensions arising from the disconnection between emissions and future damages turn out to be increasing as soon as within-country disparities are taken into account. These orders of magnitude should be kept in mind while discussing the efficiency and fairness of alternative paths in combating global warming. - Highlights: • We estimate global spatial CO_2 and CH_4 inequality using grid data for 1970–2008. • Overall spatial emission inequality is constant for CO_2 and increasing for CH_4. • Within-country inequality is rising and constitutes the main bulk of overall inequality. • An important part of within country inequality is due to differences among sectors. • The gap between emitters and victims is rising within countries.

Investors’ Risk Appetite and Global Financial Market Conditions

OpenAIRE

Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo

2008-01-01

A structural vector autoregression model is developed to analyze the dynamics of bond spreads among a sample of mature and developing countries during periods of financial stress in the last decade. The model identifies and quantifies the contribution on bond spreads from global market conditions (including funding liquidity, market liquidity, as well as credit and volatility risks), contagion effects, and idiosyncratic factors. While idiosyncratic factors explain a large amount of the change...

Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate

Science.gov (United States)

Milly, P.C.D.; Dunne, K.A.; Vecchia, A.V.

2005-01-01

Water availability on the continents is important for human health, economic activity, ecosystem function and geophysical processes. Because the saturation vapour pressure of water in air is highly sensitive to temperature, perturbations in the global water cycle are expected to accompany climate warming. Regional patterns of warming-induced changes in surface hydroclimate are complex and less certain than those in temperature, however, with both regional increases and decreases expected in precipitation and runoff. Here we show that an ensemble of 12 climate models exhibits qualitative and statistically significant skill in simulating observed regional patterns of twentieth-century multidecadal changes in streamflow. These models project 10–40% increases in runoff in eastern equatorial Africa, the La Plata basin and high-latitude North America and Eurasia, and 10–30% decreases in runoff in southern Africa, southern Europe, the Middle East and mid-latitude western North America by the year 2050. Such changes in sustainable water availability would have considerable regional-scale consequences for economies as well as ecosystems.

Global fishery development patterns are driven by profit but not trophic level.

Science.gov (United States)

Sethi, Suresh A; Branch, Trevor A; Watson, Reg

2010-07-06

Successful ocean management needs to consider not only fishing impacts but drivers of harvest. Consolidating post-1950 global catch and economic data, we assess which attributes of fisheries are good indicators for fishery development. Surprisingly, year of development and economic value are not correlated with fishery trophic levels. Instead, patterns emerge of profit-driven fishing for attributes related to costs and revenues. Post-1950 fisheries initially developed on shallow ranging species with large catch, high price, and big body size, and then expanded to less desirable species. Revenues expected from developed fisheries declined 95% from 1951 to 1999, and few high catch or valuable fishing opportunities remain. These results highlight the importance of economic attributes of species as leading indicators for harvest-related impacts in ocean ecosystems.

Untangling the Interplay between Epidemic Spread and Transmission Network Dynamics.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christel Kamp

Full Text Available The epidemic spread of infectious diseases is ubiquitous and often has a considerable impact on public health and economic wealth. The large variability in the spatio-temporal patterns of epidemics prohibits simple interventions and requires a detailed analysis of each epidemic with respect to its infectious agent and the corresponding routes of transmission. To facilitate this analysis, we introduce a mathematical framework which links epidemic patterns to the topology and dynamics of the underlying transmission network. The evolution, both in disease prevalence and transmission network topology, is derived from a closed set of partial differential equations for infections without allowing for recovery. The predictions are in excellent agreement with complementarily conducted agent-based simulations. The capacity of this new method is demonstrated in several case studies on HIV epidemics in synthetic populations: it allows us to monitor the evolution of contact behavior among healthy and infected individuals and the contributions of different disease stages to the spreading of the epidemic. This gives both direction to and a test bed for targeted intervention strategies for epidemic control. In conclusion, this mathematical framework provides a capable toolbox for the analysis of epidemics from first principles. This allows for fast, in silico modeling--and manipulation--of epidemics and is especially powerful if complemented with adequate empirical data for parameterization.

Bulgarian regional patterns of contamination by global fallout (strontium 90)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boyadzhiev, A.; Shopov, N.; Simova, G.; Andreev, E.; Mikha lov, M.G.

1980-01-01

For selected districts in the country, mean annual atmospheric precipitation rates were related to strontium-90 contents in milk over the period 1970-1977. Strontium-90 in milk was determined by the method of Popov, using Va-Z-310 counters for activity measurements. The impact of annual precipitation means was examined by monofactorial spread analysis, with sites distributed into three groups according to precipitation rates observed over longer time periods: up to 650 l/m 2 from 650 to 750 l/m 2 ; and above 750 L/M 2 . Values of coefficient F were estimated, representing the ratio of group to random spreads. These figures were compared with critical values in Student's tables for 0.05 significance level. The F data indicated a definite alternative relationship to exist between strontium-90 amounts in mils and annual precipitation rates, which is prognostically meaningful from the strandpoint of radiological protection of the population

Epidemic Spread of Symbiotic and Non-Symbiotic Bradyrhizobium Genotypes Across California.

Science.gov (United States)

Hollowell, A C; Regus, J U; Gano, K A; Bantay, R; Centeno, D; Pham, J; Lyu, J Y; Moore, D; Bernardo, A; Lopez, G; Patil, A; Patel, S; Lii, Y; Sachs, J L

2016-04-01

The patterns and drivers of bacterial strain dominance remain poorly understood in natural populations. Here, we cultured 1292 Bradyrhizobium isolates from symbiotic root nodules and the soil root interface of the host plant Acmispon strigosus across a >840-km transect in California. To investigate epidemiology and the potential role of accessory loci as epidemic drivers, isolates were genotyped at two chromosomal loci and were assayed for presence or absence of accessory "symbiosis island" loci that encode capacity to form nodules on hosts. We found that Bradyrhizobium populations were very diverse but dominated by few haplotypes-with a single "epidemic" haplotype constituting nearly 30 % of collected isolates and spreading nearly statewide. In many Bradyrhizobium lineages, we inferred presence and absence of the symbiosis island suggesting recurrent evolutionary gain and or loss of symbiotic capacity. We did not find statistical phylogenetic evidence that the symbiosis island acquisition promotes strain dominance and both symbiotic and non-symbiotic strains exhibited population dominance and spatial spread. Our dataset reveals that a strikingly few Bradyrhizobium genotypes can rapidly spread to dominate a landscape and suggests that these epidemics are not driven by the acquisition of accessory loci as occurs in key human pathogens.

Would There Be One Standard English as the Global Language?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ienneke Indra Dewi

2010-04-01

Full Text Available Article intends to investigate whether there is the possibility of having English as a global language used all over the world with one variety only. One variety of English will reduce the miscommunication among people speaking English. The research was conducted by library research by looking at the requirements of a global language, its spread in the world, and the related problems. The results show that English has fulfilled the requirements of a global language looking from its history and the spread of its speakers. However, it has a lot of varieties in either English speaking countries or in the developing countries where English functions as a second and foreign language. The varieties are found not only in the pronunciation, but in the vocabulary and grammar as well. Usually the native languages play an important role in these varieties. All these facts indicate that English might become a global language. However, having one variety of English still needs a long time to go.

On the existence of a threshold for preventive behavioral responses to suppress epidemic spreading.

Science.gov (United States)

Sahneh, Faryad Darabi; Chowdhury, Fahmida N; Scoglio, Caterina M

2012-01-01

The spontaneous behavioral responses of individuals to the progress of an epidemic are recognized to have a significant impact on how the infection spreads. One observation is that, even if the infection strength is larger than the classical epidemic threshold, the initially growing infection can diminish as the result of preventive behavioral patterns adopted by the individuals. In order to investigate such dynamics of the epidemic spreading, we use a simple behavioral model coupled with the individual-based SIS epidemic model where susceptible individuals adopt a preventive behavior when sensing infection. We show that, given any infection strength and contact topology, there exists a region in the behavior-related parameter space such that infection cannot survive in long run and is completely contained. Several simulation results, including a spreading scenario in a realistic contact network from a rural district in the State of Kansas, are presented to support our analytical arguments.

Global and local targeted immunization in networks with community structure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yan, Shu; Tang, Shaoting; Pei, Sen; Zheng, Zhiming; Fang, Wenyi

2015-01-01

Immunization plays an important role in the field of epidemic spreading in complex networks. In previous studies, targeted immunization has been proved to be an effective strategy. However, when extended to networks with community structure, it is unknown whether the superior strategy is to vaccinate the nodes who have the most connections in the entire network (global strategy), or those in the original community where epidemic starts to spread (local strategy). In this work, by using both analytic approaches and simulations, we observe that the answer depends on the closeness between communities. If communities are tied closely, the global strategy is superior to the local strategy. Otherwise, the local targeted immunization is advantageous. The existence of a transitional value of closeness implies that we should adopt different strategies. Furthermore, we extend our investigation from two-community networks to multi-community networks. We consider the mode of community connection and the location of community where epidemic starts to spread. Both simulation results and theoretical predictions show that local strategy is a better option for immunization in most cases. But if the epidemic begins from a core community, global strategy is superior in some cases. (paper)

Social Contacts and Mixing Patterns Relevant to the Spread of Infectious Diseases

Science.gov (United States)

Mossong, Joël; Hens, Niel; Jit, Mark; Beutels, Philippe; Auranen, Kari; Mikolajczyk, Rafael; Massari, Marco; Salmaso, Stefania; Tomba, Gianpaolo Scalia; Wallinga, Jacco; Heijne, Janneke; Sadkowska-Todys, Malgorzata; Rosinska, Magdalena; Edmunds, W. John

2008-01-01

Background Mathematical modelling of infectious diseases transmitted by the respiratory or close-contact route (e.g., pandemic influenza) is increasingly being used to determine the impact of possible interventions. Although mixing patterns are known to be crucial determinants for model outcome, researchers often rely on a priori contact assumptions with little or no empirical basis. We conducted a population-based prospective survey of mixing patterns in eight European countries using a common paper-diary methodology. Methods and Findings 7,290 participants recorded characteristics of 97,904 contacts with different individuals during one day, including age, sex, location, duration, frequency, and occurrence of physical contact. We found that mixing patterns and contact characteristics were remarkably similar across different European countries. Contact patterns were highly assortative with age: schoolchildren and young adults in particular tended to mix with people of the same age. Contacts lasting at least one hour or occurring on a daily basis mostly involved physical contact, while short duration and infrequent contacts tended to be nonphysical. Contacts at home, school, or leisure were more likely to be physical than contacts at the workplace or while travelling. Preliminary modelling indicates that 5- to 19-year-olds are expected to suffer the highest incidence during the initial epidemic phase of an emerging infection transmitted through social contacts measured here when the population is completely susceptible. Conclusions To our knowledge, our study provides the first large-scale quantitative approach to contact patterns relevant for infections transmitted by the respiratory or close-contact route, and the results should lead to improved parameterisation of mathematical models used to design control strategies. PMID:18366252

Default Spread dan Term Spread sebagai Variabel Proxy Siklus Bisnis pada Model Fama-French

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edwin Hendra

2015-08-01

Full Text Available This research aims to apply the Fama-French models and test the effect of alternative variable of bond yield spread, default spread (RBBB – RAAA and RAAA – RF, and the term spread (RSUN10-RSUN1, as proxy variables of the business cycle, in IDX stock data during 2005-2010. Four types of asset pricing models tested are Sharpe-Lintner CAPM, Fama-French models, Hwang et al.model, and hybrid model. The results showed that the size effect and value effect has an impact on excess stock returns. Slopes of market beta, SMB, and HML are more sensitive to stock big size and high B / M. Default spreads and term spreads in Hwang et al. model can explain the value effect, and weakly explain the size effect, meanwhile the power of explanation disappeared on Hybrid models. Based on the assessment adjusted R2 and the frequency of rejection of non-zero alpha, is found that the hybrid model is the most suitable model.  

THE EXPANSION OF FDI FLOWS – A MAJOR FACTOR OF GLOBALIZATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

CLAUDIA ISAC

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Globalization is the process whereby geographical distance becomes a less important factor in establishing and developing cross-border economic, political and socio-cultural relations; therefore production networks and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI flows represent the main factors that play a key role in the process of getting international and worldwide spreading. Globalization phenomenon involves a process of deepening and widening of interdependence relations between different economic entities and spheres and takes into account international trade relations, the cross-border movement of international production factors, but mostly the expansion of FDI flows, having significant positive effects on the welfare of nations or geographical areas. The impact of the global economic crisis on FDI flows is a heterogeneous one, as the effects of the depression came to light in many different ways, depending on the level of development, the geographical area or the economic field. The overall fall in global FDI flows during the crisis was accompanied by a significant shift in the traditional pattern of FDI: emerging countries well-endowed with natural resources were becoming a growing source of FDI for developed countries, due to internationalization strategies carried out by their multinational companies (MNCs. Based on recent forecasts, UNCTAD specialists estimate that global FDI will recover to its pre-crisis level in 2011, rising to $1.4-1.6 trillion, approaching its 2007 peak in 2013. However, the business environment remains volatile and MNCs are cautious rather than optimistic regarding their investment plans.

A camera-phone based study reveals erratic eating pattern and disrupted daily eating-fasting cycle among adults in India.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Neelu Jain Gupta

Full Text Available The daily rhythm of feeding-fasting and meal-timing are emerging as important determinants of health. Circadian rhythm research in animal models and retrospective analyses of human nutrition data have shown that reduced length of overnight fasting or increased late night eating increases risk for metabolic diseases including obesity and diabetes. However, the daily rhythm in eating pattern in humans is rarely measured. Traditional methods to collect nutrition information through food diary and food log pay little attention to the timing of eating which may also change from day to day. We adopted a novel cell-phone based approach to longitudinally record all events of food and beverage intake in adults. In a feasibility study daily food-eating patterns of 93 healthy individuals were recorded for 21 days using camera phones. Analysis of the daily eating patterns of these individuals indicates deviation from conventional assumption that people eat three meals-a-day within a 12 h interval. We found that eating events are widespread throughout the day, with 30% consumed in evening and late night hours. There was little difference in eating pattern between weekdays and weekends. In this cohort more than 50% of people spread their caloric intake events over 15 h or longer. One decile of the cohort who were spouses of shift-workers or had flexible work schedule spread their caloric intake over 20 h. Although the nutrition quality and diversity of food consumed is different between South-East Asian and Western countries, such overall disruption of daily eating-fasting rhythm is similar. Therefore, in view of hypothesis that disrupted daily eating pattern may contribute to the global increase in metabolic diseases and modification of daily eating pattern is a potential modifiable behavior to contain these diseases, monitoring eating pattern is an important aspect of lifestyle.

A camera-phone based study reveals erratic eating pattern and disrupted daily eating-fasting cycle among adults in India.

Science.gov (United States)

Gupta, Neelu Jain; Kumar, Vinod; Panda, Satchidananda

2017-01-01

The daily rhythm of feeding-fasting and meal-timing are emerging as important determinants of health. Circadian rhythm research in animal models and retrospective analyses of human nutrition data have shown that reduced length of overnight fasting or increased late night eating increases risk for metabolic diseases including obesity and diabetes. However, the daily rhythm in eating pattern in humans is rarely measured. Traditional methods to collect nutrition information through food diary and food log pay little attention to the timing of eating which may also change from day to day. We adopted a novel cell-phone based approach to longitudinally record all events of food and beverage intake in adults. In a feasibility study daily food-eating patterns of 93 healthy individuals were recorded for 21 days using camera phones. Analysis of the daily eating patterns of these individuals indicates deviation from conventional assumption that people eat three meals-a-day within a 12 h interval. We found that eating events are widespread throughout the day, with 30% consumed in evening and late night hours. There was little difference in eating pattern between weekdays and weekends. In this cohort more than 50% of people spread their caloric intake events over 15 h or longer. One decile of the cohort who were spouses of shift-workers or had flexible work schedule spread their caloric intake over 20 h. Although the nutrition quality and diversity of food consumed is different between South-East Asian and Western countries, such overall disruption of daily eating-fasting rhythm is similar. Therefore, in view of hypothesis that disrupted daily eating pattern may contribute to the global increase in metabolic diseases and modification of daily eating pattern is a potential modifiable behavior to contain these diseases, monitoring eating pattern is an important aspect of lifestyle.

Spread effects - methodology; Spredningseffekter - metodegrunnlag

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2004-07-01

Diffusion of technology, environmental effects and rebound effects are the principal effects from the funding of renewable energy and energy economising. It is difficult to estimate the impact of the spread effects both prior to the measures are implemented and after the measures are carried out. Statistical methods can be used to estimate the spread effects, but they are insecure and always need to be complemented with qualitative and subjective evaluations. It is more adequate to evaluate potential spread effects from market and market data surveillance for a selection of technologies and parties. Based on this information qualitative indicators for spread effects can be constructed and used both ex ante and ex post (ml)

Epidemic spreading on adaptively weighted scale-free networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Mengfeng; Zhang, Haifeng; Kang, Huiyan; Zhu, Guanghu; Fu, Xinchu

2017-04-01

We introduce three modified SIS models on scale-free networks that take into account variable population size, nonlinear infectivity, adaptive weights, behavior inertia and time delay, so as to better characterize the actual spread of epidemics. We develop new mathematical methods and techniques to study the dynamics of the models, including the basic reproduction number, and the global asymptotic stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibria. We show the disease-free equilibrium cannot undergo a Hopf bifurcation. We further analyze the effects of local information of diseases and various immunization schemes on epidemic dynamics. We also perform some stochastic network simulations which yield quantitative agreement with the deterministic mean-field approach.

Globalization, Sustainable Development and Universities

Science.gov (United States)

Toakley, Arthur Raymond

2004-01-01

Globalization is a natural outcome of the sustained technological and economic growth, which originated with the Industrial Revolution in Britain during the 18th century. This path to continuing economic growth spread initially to continental Europe and North America, and brought with it the creation of large towns and substantial social change.…

A description of the spread of injectate after psoas compartment block using magnetic resonance imaging.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Mannion, Stephen

2012-02-03

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) provides for excellent visualization of spread of solution after peripheral nerve block. The aim of this observational study was to utilize MRI to describe the distribution of injectate (gadopentetate dimeglumine) administered for continuous psoas compartment block (PCB) performed by use of two approaches (Capdevila and modified Winnie) and to describe the spread of injectate to the lumbar plexus. METHODS: Four volunteers were enrolled in a prospective crossover study. Each volunteer underwent PCB with catheter placement performed by use of Capdevila\\'s approach followed 1 week later by PCB, with catheter placement performed by use of a modified Winnie approach. MRI of injectate distribution was performed after each PCB. RESULTS: The catheter was unable to be inserted in 1 volunteer undergoing Winnie\\'s approach; therefore, 7 sets of MR images were analyzed. In 6 of 7 cases (4 Capdevila and 2 Winnie) spread was primarily within the psoas muscle. Contrast surrounded the L2-3 lumbar branch of the femoral nerve at L4 and cleaved the fascial plane within the psoas muscle and spread cephalad to reach the lumbar nerve roots. In 1 case (Winnie approach) contrast spread between the psoas and quadratus lumborum muscles. Contrast surrounded the femoral and obturator nerves where they lie outside the psoas muscle at L5. CONCLUSION: The most common pattern of injectate spread seen on MRI with both approaches to PCB was spread within the body of the psoas muscle around the lumbar branches (L2-4), with cephalad spread to the lumbar nerve roots. One catheter resulted in injectate between the psoas and quadratus lumborum muscles.

Deciphering spreading mechanisms in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: clinical evidence and potential molecular processes.

Science.gov (United States)

Pradat, Pierre-François; Kabashi, Edor; Desnuelle, Claude

2015-10-01

The aim of this review is to refer to recent arguments supporting the existence of specific propagation mechanisms associated with spreading of neuron injury in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). Misfolded ALS-linked protein accumulation can induce aggregation of their native equivalent isoforms through a mechanism analogous to the infectious prion proteins initiation and its propagation. Although ALS is clinically heterogeneous, a shared characteristic is the focal onset and the progressive extension to all body regions. Being viewed until now as just summation of the increased number of affected neurons, dispersion is now rather considered as the result of a seeded self-propagating process. A sequential regional spreading pattern is supported by the distribution of TDP-43 aggregates in ALS autopsy cases. Electrophysiology and advanced neuroimaging methods also recently provided some evidence for propagation of lesions both in the brain and spinal cord, more longitudinal studies being still needed. Lesions are supposed to spread cell-to-cell regionally or through connected neuronal pathway. At the molecular level, the prion-like spreading is an emerging mechanism hypothesis, but other machineries such as those that are in charge of dealing with misfolded proteins and secretion of deleterious peptides may be involved in the propagation of neuron loss. Deciphering the mechanisms underlying spreading of ALS symptoms is of crucial importance to better understand this neurodegenerative disease, build new and appropriate animal models and to define novel therapeutic targets.

Global impact of Danish drama series

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Pia Majbritt

2016-01-01

In recent years Danish TV series have experienced a global export boom. This article maps the regional and global export patterns over the last fifteen years in order to assess the international impact of Danish TV drama.......In recent years Danish TV series have experienced a global export boom. This article maps the regional and global export patterns over the last fifteen years in order to assess the international impact of Danish TV drama....

Trends in spread of the particle therapy of cancers to areal bases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abe, Mitsuyuki; Aoki, Takashi; Tsujii, Hirohiko

2009-01-01

In Japan, the rate of cancer death accounts for 30%, now there are 8 facilities having the cancer particle therapy (PT) which is promising due to its highly effective, short term, non-surgical, not always expensive treatment, and local areas have tended to construct such facility for their people. This special article describes trends in the title concerning the areal intention for setting up the therapeutic bases, global trend of PT, research and development in manufacturers of PT equipments, and response of health insurer to the trend. The article contains following 15 topics presented by 15 authors or groups of the academia, official and company institutes, prefectural officers, manufacturers and an insurer, and by Editorial. Topics are: Significance and future view of PT in cancer treatment; Present state of construction of PT facilities in various areas; Fifteen year-results of PT in near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) and its effort to spread the therapy; Gumma University's 21st century program COE (Center of Excellence), Medical and Biological Studies with Accelerator Technology; Project for constructing Fukui Prefectural Proton PT Center; The role of Proton PT Center in southern Tohoku area as the first private facility; PT center by Foundation of Medipolis Medical Research Institute in southern Kyushu area; Global trend of PT; Spread of PT and the role of health insurance in it/Mitsui-Sumitomo's health insurance, Kirameki, the contribution to general public; Mitsubishi Electric Corp.'s effort to spread PT equipments; Toshiba's effort; Hitachi's effort; Sumitomo Heavy Industries' effort; Effort by Chiyoda Technol Corp. and Still River Systems to develop the next generation superconducting PT equipment; and Overview by Editorial/Complicated trend in invitation and construction of PT facilities. (K.T.)

Globalization, English Language Policy, and Teacher Agency: Focus on Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Hamid, M. Obaidul; Nguyen, Hoa Thi Mai

2016-01-01

This paper focuses on English teachers in Asia in the context of globalization, the global spread of English and the emergence of English as an "Asian language." It highlights the dilemmas facing these teachers in meeting the growing social demands of English proficiency in a technology-influenced, managerial and neoliberal education…

Reconstruction of global gridded monthly sectoral water withdrawals for 1971-2010 and analysis of their spatiotemporal patterns

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Zhongwei; Hejazi, Mohamad; Li, Xinya; Tang, Qiuhong; Vernon, Chris; Leng, Guoyong; Liu, Yaling; Döll, Petra; Eisner, Stephanie; Gerten, Dieter; Hanasaki, Naota; Wada, Yoshihide

2018-04-01

Human water withdrawal has increasingly altered the global water cycle in past decades, yet our understanding of its driving forces and patterns is limited. Reported historical estimates of sectoral water withdrawals are often sparse and incomplete, mainly restricted to water withdrawal estimates available at annual and country scales, due to a lack of observations at seasonal and local scales. In this study, through collecting and consolidating various sources of reported data and developing spatial and temporal statistical downscaling algorithms, we reconstruct a global monthly gridded (0.5°) sectoral water withdrawal dataset for the period 1971-2010, which distinguishes six water use sectors, i.e., irrigation, domestic, electricity generation (cooling of thermal power plants), livestock, mining, and manufacturing. Based on the reconstructed dataset, the spatial and temporal patterns of historical water withdrawal are analyzed. Results show that total global water withdrawal has increased significantly during 1971-2010, mainly driven by the increase in irrigation water withdrawal. Regions with high water withdrawal are those densely populated or with large irrigated cropland production, e.g., the United States (US), eastern China, India, and Europe. Seasonally, irrigation water withdrawal in summer for the major crops contributes a large percentage of total annual irrigation water withdrawal in mid- and high-latitude regions, and the dominant season of irrigation water withdrawal is also different across regions. Domestic water withdrawal is mostly characterized by a summer peak, while water withdrawal for electricity generation has a winter peak in high-latitude regions and a summer peak in low-latitude regions. Despite the overall increasing trend, irrigation in the western US and domestic water withdrawal in western Europe exhibit a decreasing trend. Our results highlight the distinct spatial pattern of human water use by sectors at the seasonal and annual

The reconciliation of an F-region irregularity model with sunspot-cycle variations in spread-F occurrence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Singleton, D.G.

1974-11-01

A recently proposed means of combining models of ionospheric F-layer peak electron density and irregularity incremental electron density (ΔN) so as to simulate the global occurrence probability of the frequency spreading component of spread-F is discussed. This procedure is then used to model experimental spread-F occurrence results. It is found possible to readily simulate the sunspot-maximum results, independently of season, with only small adjustments to the amplitudes of the empirical expressions used to ΔN in the several latitude regimes. However, at sunspot minimum and for each season, the ΔN model requires modification in the equatorial and mid-latitude regions of high irregularity incidence, before successful simulations of the spread-F data can be obtained. These modifications, which include a broadening of the equatorial region and a polewards shift to the mid-latitude region with decreasing sunspot number, are discussed in detail. It is concluded that the scintillation data base, from which the original ΔN model derives, is not sufficiently representative with regard to sunspot number and magnetic index. The use of the spread-F adaptation of the ΔN model, as well as its original scintillation version, to rectify these failings of the ΔN model are also discussed. (author)

Fluorescent visualization of a spreading surfactant

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fallest, David W; Lichtenberger, Adele M; Fox, Christopher J; Daniels, Karen E, E-mail: kdaniel@ncsu.ed [Department of Physics, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695 (United States)

2010-07-15

The spreading of surfactants on thin films is an industrially and medically important phenomenon, but the dynamics are highly nonlinear and visualization of the surfactant dynamics has been a long-standing experimental challenge. We perform the first quantitative, spatiotemporally resolved measurements of the spreading of an insoluble surfactant on a thin fluid layer. During the spreading process, we directly observe both the radial height profile of the spreading droplet and the spatial distribution of the fluorescently tagged surfactant. We find that the leading edge of a spreading circular layer of surfactant forms a Marangoni ridge in the underlying fluid, with a trough trailing the ridge as expected. However, several novel features are observed using the fluorescence technique, including a peak in the surfactant concentration that trails the leading edge, and a flat, monolayer-scale spreading film that differs from concentration profiles predicted by current models. Both the Marangoni ridge and the surfactant leading edge can be described to spread as R{approx}t{sup {delta}}. We find spreading exponents {delta}{sub H}{approx}0.30 and {delta}{sub {Gamma}}{approx}0.22 for the ridge peak and surfactant leading edge, respectively, which are in good agreement with theoretical predictions of {delta}=1/4. In addition, we observe that the surfactant leading edge initially leads the peak of the Marangoni ridge, with the peak later catching up to the leading edge.

Global environment and cogeneration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miyahara, Atsushi

1992-01-01

The environment problems on global scale have been highlighted in addition to the local problems due to the rapid increase of population, the increase of energy demand and so on. The global environment summit was held in Brazil. Now, global environment problems are the problems for mankind, and their importance seems to increase toward 21st century. In such circumstances, cogeneration can reduce carbon dioxide emission in addition to energy conservation, therefore, attention has been paid as the countermeasure for global environment. The background of global environment problems is explained. As to the effectiveness of cogeneration for global environment, the suitability of city gas to environment, energy conservation, the reduction of carbon dioxide and nitrogen oxides emission are discussed. As for the state of spread of cogeneration, as of March, 1992, those of 2250 MW in terms of power generation capacity have been installed in Japan. It is forecast that cogeneration will increase hereafter. As the future systems of cogeneration, city and industry energy center conception, industrial repowering, multiple house cogeneration and fuel cells are described. (K.I.)

Information spread in networks: Games, optimal control, and stabilization

Science.gov (United States)

Khanafer, Ali

This thesis focuses on designing efficient mechanisms for controlling information spread in networks. We consider two models for information spread. The first one is the well-known distributed averaging dynamics. The second model is a nonlinear one that describes virus spread in computer and biological networks. We seek to design optimal, robust, and stabilizing controllers under practical constraints. For distributed averaging networks, we study the interaction between a network designer and an adversary. We consider two types of attacks on the network. In Attack-I, the adversary strategically disconnects a set of links to prevent the nodes from reaching consensus. Meanwhile, the network designer assists the nodes in reaching consensus by changing the weights of a limited number of links in the network. We formulate two problems to describe this competition where the order in which the players act is reversed in the two problems. Although the canonical equations provided by the Pontryagin's Maximum Principle (MP) seem to be intractable, we provide an alternative characterization for the optimal strategies that makes connection to potential theory. Further, we provide a sufficient condition for the existence of a saddle-point equilibrium (SPE) for the underlying zero-sum game. In Attack-II, the designer and the adversary are both capable of altering the measurements of all nodes in the network by injecting global signals. We impose two constraints on both players: a power constraint and an energy constraint. We assume that the available energy to each player is not sufficient to operate at maximum power throughout the horizon of the game. We show the existence of an SPE and derive the optimal strategies in closed form for this attack scenario. As an alternative to the "network designer vs. adversary" framework, we investigate the possibility of stabilizing unknown network diffusion processes using a distributed mechanism, where the uncertainty is due to an attack

Globalization, land use and the invasion of West Nile virus

Science.gov (United States)

Kilpatrick, A. Marm

2012-01-01

Many invasive species that have been spread through the globalization of trade and travel are infectious pathogens. A paradigmatic case is the introduction of West Nile virus (WNV) into North America in 1999. A decade of research on the ecology and evolution of WNV includes three findings that provide insight into the outcome of future viral introductions. First, WNV transmission in North America is highest in urbanized and agricultural habitats, in part because the hosts and vectors of WNV are abundant in human-modified areas. Second, after its introduction, the virus quickly adapted to infect local mosquito vectors more efficiently than the originally introduced strain. Third, highly focused feeding patterns of the mosquito vectors of WNV result in unexpected host species being important for transmission. These findings provide a framework for predicting and preventing the emergence of foreign vector-borne pathogens. PMID:22021850

Temporal patterns of diversification across global cichlid biodiversity (Acanthomorpha: Cichlidae.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Caleb D McMahan

Full Text Available The contrasting distribution of species diversity across the major lineages of cichlids makes them an ideal group for investigating macroevolutionary processes. In this study, we investigate whether different rates of diversification may explain the disparity in species richness across cichlid lineages globally. We present the most taxonomically robust time-calibrated hypothesis of cichlid evolutionary relationships to date. We then utilize this temporal framework to investigate whether both species-rich and depauperate lineages are associated with rapid shifts in diversification rates and if exceptional species richness can be explained by clade age alone. A single significant rapid rate shift increase is detected within the evolutionary history of the African subfamily Pseudocrenilabrinae, which includes the haplochromins of the East African Great Lakes. Several lineages from the subfamilies Pseudocrenilabrinae (Australotilapiini, Oreochromini and Cichlinae (Heroini exhibit exceptional species richness given their clade age, a net rate of diversification, and relative rates of extinction, indicating that clade age alone is not a sufficient explanation for their increased diversity. Our results indicate that the Neotropical Cichlinae includes lineages that have not experienced a significant rapid burst in diversification when compared to certain African lineages (rift lake. Neotropical cichlids have remained comparatively understudied with regard to macroevolutionary patterns relative to African lineages, and our results indicate that of Neotropical lineages, the tribe Heroini may have an elevated rate of diversification in contrast to other Neotropical cichlids. These findings provide insight into our understanding of the diversification patterns across taxonomically disparate lineages in this diverse clade of freshwater fishes and one of the most species-rich families of vertebrates.

Terrestrial spreading centers under Venus conditions - Evaluation of a crustal spreading model for Western Aphrodite Terra

Science.gov (United States)

Sotin, C.; Senske, D. A.; Head, J. W.; Parmentier, E. M.

1989-01-01

The model of Reid and Jackson (1981) for terrestrial spreading centers is applied to Venus conditions. On the basis of spreading rate, mantle temperature, and surface temperature, the model predicts both isostatic topography and crustal thickness. The model and Pioneer Venus altimetry and gravity data are used to test the hypothesis of Head and Crumpler (1987) that Western Aphrodite Terra is the location of crustal spreading on Venus. It is concluded that a spreading center model for Ovda Regio in Western Aphrodite Terra could account for the observed topography and line-of-sight gravity anomalies found in the Pioneer data.

REPRODUCTIVE NUMBERS, EPIDEMIC SPREAD AND CONTROL IN A COMMUNITY OF HOUSEHOLDS

OpenAIRE

Goldstein, E.; Paur, K.; Fraser, C.; Kenah, E.; Wallinga, J.; Lipsitch, M.

2009-01-01

Many of the studies on emerging epidemics (such as SARS and pandemic flu) use mass action models to estimate reproductive numbers and the needed control measures. In reality, transmission patterns are more complex due to the presence of various social networks. One level of complexity can be accommodated by considering a community of households. Our study of transmission dynamics in a community of households emphasizes five types of reproductive numbers for the epidemic spread: household-to-h...

Direct and indirect impact of sewage sludge compost spreading on Quercus coccifera monoterpene emissions in a Mediterranean shrubland

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Olivier, Romain [Aix-Marseille Universite - Institut Mediterraneen d' Ecologie et de Paleoecologie (IMEP), UMR 6111, Equipe Diversite Fonctionnelle des Communautes Vegetales - Centre de St Charles, Case 4, 13331 Marseille Cedex 03 (France); Staudt, Michael [Departement Fonctionnement des Ecosystemes, Centre d' Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE, UMR 5175), 1919 Route de Mende, 34293 Montpellier Cedex 5 (France); Lavoir, Anne-Violette; Ormeno, Elena; Rizvi, Syed Hussain; Baldy, Virginie; Rivoal, Annabelle; Greff, Stephane; Lecareux, Caroline [Aix-Marseille Universite - Institut Mediterraneen d' Ecologie et de Paleoecologie (IMEP), UMR 6111, Equipe Diversite Fonctionnelle des Communautes Vegetales - Centre de St Charles, Case 4, 13331 Marseille Cedex 03 (France); Fernandez, Catherine, E-mail: catherine.fernandez@univ-provence.fr [Aix-Marseille Universite - Institut Mediterraneen d' Ecologie et de Paleoecologie (IMEP), UMR 6111, Equipe Diversite Fonctionnelle des Communautes Vegetales - Centre de St Charles, Case 4, 13331 Marseille Cedex 03 (France)

2011-04-15

Monoterpene emissions of Quercus coccifera L. were repeatedly measured during the two years following the spreading of a sewage sludge compost at rates of 50 Mg ha{sup -1} and 100 Mg ha{sup -1}, in a twelve-year-old post-fire Mediterranean shrubland. We also monitored the patterns of change in soil and leaf nutrient content, plant water potential, chlorophyll fluorescence, and plant growth. Compost spreading resulted in weak changes in leaf nutrient content and plant water status, and therefore no significant effect on monoterpene emissions at leaf scale, except during one summer sampling, probably related to advanced leaf maturity with the highest compost rate. However, compost increased plant growth, particularly the leaf biomass. The results suggest that compost spreading in Mediterranean shrublands has no strong short-term effect on Q. coccifera monoterpene emissions at leaf level, but may indirectly increase volatile organic compound fluxes at the stand scale, which may contribute to regional ozone pollution. - Research highlights: > Compost spreading had weak effects on leaf terpene emissions of Quercus coccifera. > Compost spreading increased leaf biomass of Q. coccifera. > Compost spreading indirectly increased Q. coccifera biogenic emissions, at the landscape scale. - Compost spreading in Mediterranean shrublands has no strong short-term effect on Q. coccifera monoterpene emissions at leaf level.

Direct and indirect impact of sewage sludge compost spreading on Quercus coccifera monoterpene emissions in a Mediterranean shrubland

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Olivier, Romain; Staudt, Michael; Lavoir, Anne-Violette; Ormeno, Elena; Rizvi, Syed Hussain; Baldy, Virginie; Rivoal, Annabelle; Greff, Stephane; Lecareux, Caroline; Fernandez, Catherine

2011-01-01

Monoterpene emissions of Quercus coccifera L. were repeatedly measured during the two years following the spreading of a sewage sludge compost at rates of 50 Mg ha -1 and 100 Mg ha -1 , in a twelve-year-old post-fire Mediterranean shrubland. We also monitored the patterns of change in soil and leaf nutrient content, plant water potential, chlorophyll fluorescence, and plant growth. Compost spreading resulted in weak changes in leaf nutrient content and plant water status, and therefore no significant effect on monoterpene emissions at leaf scale, except during one summer sampling, probably related to advanced leaf maturity with the highest compost rate. However, compost increased plant growth, particularly the leaf biomass. The results suggest that compost spreading in Mediterranean shrublands has no strong short-term effect on Q. coccifera monoterpene emissions at leaf level, but may indirectly increase volatile organic compound fluxes at the stand scale, which may contribute to regional ozone pollution. - Research highlights: → Compost spreading had weak effects on leaf terpene emissions of Quercus coccifera. → Compost spreading increased leaf biomass of Q. coccifera. → Compost spreading indirectly increased Q. coccifera biogenic emissions, at the landscape scale. - Compost spreading in Mediterranean shrublands has no strong short-term effect on Q. coccifera monoterpene emissions at leaf level.

Language Learning Motivation, Global English and Study Modes: A Comparative Study

Science.gov (United States)

Lanvers, Ursula

2017-01-01

Exploring the popular explanation that the global spread of English may demotivate students with English as their first language to learn other languages, this study investigates relations between student motivation and perception of Global English and tests for differences between traditional "campus" and distance university students…

Worldwide patterns of fish biodiversity in estuaries: Effect of global vs. local factors

Science.gov (United States)

Pasquaud, Stéphanie; Vasconcelos, Rita P.; França, Susana; Henriques, Sofia; Costa, Maria José; Cabral, Henrique

2015-03-01

The main ecological patterns and the functioning of estuarine ecosystems are difficult to evaluate due to natural and human induced complexity and variability. Broad geographical approaches appear particularly useful. This study tested, at a worldwide scale, the influence of global and local variables in fish species richness in estuaries, aiming to determine the latitudinal pattern of species richness, and patterns which could be driven by local features such as estuary area, estuary mouth width, river flow and intertidal area. Seventy one estuarine systems were considered with data obtained from the literature and geographical information system. Correlation tests and generalized linear models (GLM) were used in data analyses. Species richness varied from 23 to 153 fish species. GLM results showed that estuary area was the most important factor explaining species richness, followed by latitude and mouth width. Species richness increased towards the equator, and higher values were found in larger estuaries and with a wide mouth. All these trends showed a high variability. A larger estuary area probably reflects a higher diversity of habitats and/or productivity, which are key features for estuarine ecosystem functioning and biota. The mouth width effect is particularly notorious for marine and diadromous fish species, enhancing connectivity between marine and freshwater realms. The effects of river flow and intertidal area on the fish species richness appear to be less evident. These two factors may have a marked influence in the trophic structure of fish assemblages.

Turbulence Spreading into Linearly Stable Zone and Transport Scaling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hahm, T.S.; Diamond, P.H.; Lin, Z.; Itoh, K.; Itoh, S.-I.

2003-01-01

We study the simplest problem of turbulence spreading corresponding to the spatio-temporal propagation of a patch of turbulence from a region where it is locally excited to a region of weaker excitation, or even local damping. A single model equation for the local turbulence intensity I(x, t) includes the effects of local linear growth and damping, spatially local nonlinear coupling to dissipation and spatial scattering of turbulence energy induced by nonlinear coupling. In the absence of dissipation, the front propagation into the linearly stable zone occurs with the property of rapid progression at small t, followed by slower subdiffusive progression at late times. The turbulence radial spreading into the linearly stable zone reduces the turbulent intensity in the linearly unstable zone, and introduces an additional dependence on the rho* is always equal to rho i/a to the turbulent intensity and the transport scaling. These are in broad, semi-quantitative agreements with a number of global gyrokinetic simulation results with zonal flows and without zonal flows. The front propagation stops when the radial flux of fluctuation energy from the linearly unstable region is balanced by local dissipation in the linearly stable region

Does media coverage influence the spread of drug addiction?

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Mingju; Liu, Sanyang; Li, Jun

2017-09-01

In this paper, a three dimensional drug model is constructed to investigate the impact of media coverage on the spread and control of drug addiction. The dynamical behavior of the model is studied by using the basic reproduction number R0. The drug-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if R0 drug addiction equilibrium is locally stable if R0 > 1. The results demonstrate that the media effect in human population cannot change the stabilities of equilibria but can affect the number of drug addicts. Sensitivity analyses are performed to seek for effective control measures for drug treatment. Numerical simulations are given to support the theoretical results.

A global assessment of market accessibility and market influence for global environmental change studies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Verburg, Peter H [Institute for Environmental Studies, Amsterdam Global Change Institute, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV Amsterdam (Netherlands); Ellis, Erle C [Department of Geography and Environmental Systems, University of Maryland, Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD 21250 (United States); Letourneau, Aurelien, E-mail: Peter.Verburg@ivm.vu.nl [UMR 5175 Centre d' Ecologie Fonctionnelle and Evolutive, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, 1919 Route de Mende, 34293 Montpellier cedex 5 (France)

2011-07-15

Markets influence the global patterns of urbanization, deforestation, agriculture and other land use systems. Yet market influence is rarely incorporated into spatially explicit global studies of environmental change, largely because consistent global data are lacking below the national level. Here we present the first high spatial resolution gridded data depicting market influence globally. The data jointly represent variations in both market strength and accessibility based on three market influence indices derived from an index of accessibility to market locations and national level gross domestic product (purchasing power parity). These indices show strong correspondence with human population density while also revealing several distinct and useful relationships with other global environmental patterns. As market influence grows, the need for high resolution global data on market influence and its dynamics will become increasingly important to understanding and forecasting global environmental change.

A global assessment of market accessibility and market influence for global environmental change studies

Science.gov (United States)

Verburg, Peter H.; Ellis, Erle C.; Letourneau, Aurelien

2011-07-01

Markets influence the global patterns of urbanization, deforestation, agriculture and other land use systems. Yet market influence is rarely incorporated into spatially explicit global studies of environmental change, largely because consistent global data are lacking below the national level. Here we present the first high spatial resolution gridded data depicting market influence globally. The data jointly represent variations in both market strength and accessibility based on three market influence indices derived from an index of accessibility to market locations and national level gross domestic product (purchasing power parity). These indices show strong correspondence with human population density while also revealing several distinct and useful relationships with other global environmental patterns. As market influence grows, the need for high resolution global data on market influence and its dynamics will become increasingly important to understanding and forecasting global environmental change.

A global assessment of market accessibility and market influence for global environmental change studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Verburg, Peter H; Ellis, Erle C; Letourneau, Aurelien

2011-01-01

Markets influence the global patterns of urbanization, deforestation, agriculture and other land use systems. Yet market influence is rarely incorporated into spatially explicit global studies of environmental change, largely because consistent global data are lacking below the national level. Here we present the first high spatial resolution gridded data depicting market influence globally. The data jointly represent variations in both market strength and accessibility based on three market influence indices derived from an index of accessibility to market locations and national level gross domestic product (purchasing power parity). These indices show strong correspondence with human population density while also revealing several distinct and useful relationships with other global environmental patterns. As market influence grows, the need for high resolution global data on market influence and its dynamics will become increasingly important to understanding and forecasting global environmental change.

Global Pattern of The Evolutions of the Sub-Auroral Polarization Streams

Science.gov (United States)

He, F.; Zhang, X.; Wang, W.; Wan, W.

2017-12-01

Due to the spatial and temporal limitations of the in-situ measurements from the low altitude polar orbiting satellites or the ionospheric scan by incoherent scatter radars, the global configuration and evolution of SAPS are still not very clear. Here, we present multi-satellite observations of the evolution of subauroral polarization streams (SAPS) during the main phase of a server geomagnetic storm occurred on 31 March 2001. DMSP F12 to F15 observations indicate that the SAPS were first generated in the dusk sector at the beginning of the main phase. Then the SAPS channel expanded towards the midnight and moved to lower latitudes as the main phase went on. The peak velocity, latitudinal width, latitudinal alignment, and longitudinal span of the SAPS channels were highly dynamic during the storm main phase. The global evolution of the SAPS corresponds well with that of the region-2 field-aligned currents, which are mainly determined by the azimuthal pressure gradient of the ring current. Further studies on 37 storms and 30 isolated substorms indicate that the lifetime of the SAPS channel was proportional to the period of time for southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). The SAPS channel disappeared after northward turning of the IMF. During the recovery phase, if the IMF kept northward, no SAPS channel was generated, if the IMF turned to southward again, however, SAPS channel will be generated again with lifetime proportional to the duration of the southward IMF. During isolated substorms, the SAPS channel was also controlled by IMF. The SAPS channel was generated after substorm onset and the peak drift velocity of the SAPS channel achieved its maximum during the recovery phase of the substorm. It is suggested that, SAPS channel were mainly controlled by IMF, more works should be done with observations or simulations of investigate the global patterns of the SAPS and the magnetosphere-ionosphere couplings.

GLOBAL PATTERNS OF LEPTOSPIRA PREVALENCE IN VERTEBRATE RESERVOIR HOSTS.

Science.gov (United States)

Andersen-Ranberg, Emilie U; Pipper, Christian; Jensen, Per M

2016-07-01

Leptospirosis is a widespread emerging bacterial zoonosis. As the transmission is believed to be predominantly waterborne, human incidence is expected to increase in conjunction with global climate change and associated extreme weather events. Providing more accurate predictions of human leptospirosis requires more detailed information on animal reservoirs that are the source of human infection. We evaluated the prevalence of Leptospira in vertebrates worldwide and its association with taxonomy, geographic region, host biology, ambient temperature, and precipitation patterns. A multivariate regression analysis with a meta-analysis-like approach was used to analyze compiled data extracted from 300 Leptospira-related peer reviewed papers. A fairly uniform Leptospira infection prevalence of about 15% was found in the majority of mammalian families. Higher prevalence was frequently associated with species occupying urban habitats, and this may explain why climatic factors were not significantly correlated with prevalence as consistently as expected. Across different approaches of the multiple regression analyses, the variables most frequently correlated with Leptospira infection prevalence were the host's ability to swim, minimum ambient temperature, and methodologic quality of the study. Prevalence in carnivores was not associated with any climatic variable, and the importance of environmental risk factors were indicated to be of lesser consequence in nonhuman mammals. The dataset is made available for further analysis.

Global Simulation of Aviation Operations

Science.gov (United States)

Sridhar, Banavar; Sheth, Kapil; Ng, Hok Kwan; Morando, Alex; Li, Jinhua

2016-01-01

The simulation and analysis of global air traffic is limited due to a lack of simulation tools and the difficulty in accessing data sources. This paper provides a global simulation of aviation operations combining flight plans and real air traffic data with historical commercial city-pair aircraft type and schedule data and global atmospheric data. The resulting capability extends the simulation and optimization functions of NASA's Future Air Traffic Management Concept Evaluation Tool (FACET) to global scale. This new capability is used to present results on the evolution of global air traffic patterns from a concentration of traffic inside US, Europe and across the Atlantic Ocean to a more diverse traffic pattern across the globe with accelerated growth in Asia, Australia, Africa and South America. The simulation analyzes seasonal variation in the long-haul wind-optimal traffic patterns in six major regions of the world and provides potential time-savings of wind-optimal routes compared with either great circle routes or current flight-plans if available.

[Environmental drivers of emergence and spreading of Vibrio epidemics in South America].

Science.gov (United States)

Gavilán, Ronnie G; Martínez-Urtaza, Jaime

2011-03-01

Vibrio cholerae and V. parahaemolyticus are the two Vibrio species with a major impact on human health. Diseases caused by both pathogens are acquiring increasing relevance due to their expansion at global scale. In this paper, we resume the ecological aspects associated with the arrival and spreading of infections caused by V. parahaemolyticus and V. cholerae in Peru from a South American perspective. Moreover, we discuss the similarities in the emergence in Peru of cholera cases in 1991 and V. parahaemolyticus infections in 1997. These constituted exceptional experiments to evaluate the relationships between the Vibrio epidemics and changes in the environment. The epidemic radiations of V. cholerae and V. parahaemolyticus constitute to clear examples supporting the oceanic dispersion of pathogenic vibrios and have enabled the identification of El Niño events as a potential mechanism for the spreading of diseases through the ocean.

The ripples of "The Big (agricultural) Bang": the spread of early wheat cultivation.

Science.gov (United States)

Abbo, Shahal; Gopher, Avi; Peleg, Zvi; Saranga, Yehoshua; Fahima, Tzion; Salamini, Francesco; Lev-Yadun, Simcha

2006-08-01

Demographic expansion and (or) migrations leave their mark in the pattern of DNA polymorphisms of the respective populations. Likewise, the spread of cultural phenomena can be traced by dating archaeological finds and reconstructing their direction and pace. A similar course of events is likely to have taken place following the "Big Bang" of the agricultural spread in the Neolithic Near East from its core area in southeastern Turkey. Thus far, no attempts have been made to track the movement of the founder genetic stocks of the first crop plants from their core area based on the genetic structure of living plants. In this minireview, we re-interpret recent wheat DNA polymorphism data to detect the genetic ripples left by the early wave of advance of Neolithic wheat farming from its core area. This methodology may help to suggest a model charting the spread of the first farming phase prior to the emergence of truly domesticated wheat types (and other such crops), thereby increasing our resolution power in studying this revolutionary period of human cultural, demographic, and social evolution.

Simulation of Spread of African Swine Fever, Including the Effects of Residues from Dead Animals

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq; Boklund, Anette; Bøtner, Anette

2016-01-01

To study the spread of African swine fever (ASF) within a pig unit and the impact of unit size on ASF spread, a simulation model was created. In the model, an animal can be in one of the following stages: susceptible, latent, subclinical, clinical, or recovered. Animals can be infectious during...... the subclinical stage and are fully infectious during the clinical stage. ASF virus (ASFV) infection through residues of dead animals in the slurries was also modeled in an exponentially fading-out pattern. Low and high transmission rates for ASFV were tested in the model. Robustness analysis was carried out...... in order to study the impact of uncertain parameters on model predictions. The results showed that the disease may fade out within the pig unit without a major outbreak. Furthermore, they showed that spread of ASFV is dependent on the infectiousness of subclinical animals and the residues of dead animals...

Characterization of spatio-temporal patterns for various GRACE- and GLDAS-born estimates for changes of global terrestrial water storage

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Tao; Wang, Chao; Yu, Zhongbo; Xu, Feng

2013-10-01

Since the launch in March 2002, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission has provided us with a new method to estimate terrestrial water storage (TWS) variations by measuring earth gravity change with unprecedented accuracy. Thus far, a number of standardized GRACE-born TWS products are published by different international research teams. However, no characterization of spatio-temporal patterns for different GRACE hydrology products from the global perspective could be found. It is still a big challenge for the science community to identify the reliable global measurement of TWS anomalies due to our limited knowledge on the true value. Hence, it is urgently necessary to evaluate the uncertainty for various global estimates of the GRACE-born TWS changes by a number of international research organizations. Toward this end, this article presents an in-depth analysis for various GRACE-born and GLDAS-based estimates for changes of global terrestrial water storage. The work characterizes the inter-annual and intra-annual variability, probability density variations, and spatial patterns among different GRACE-born TWS estimates over six major continents, and compares them with results from GLDAS simulations. The underlying causes of inconsistency between GRACE- and GLDAS-born TWS estimates are thoroughly analyzed with an aim to improve our current knowledge in monitoring global TWS change. With a comprehensive consideration of the advantages and disadvantages among GRACE- and GLDAS-born TWS anomalies, a summary is thereafter recommended as a rapid reference for scientists, end-users, and policy-makers in the practices of global TWS change research. To our best knowledge, this work is the first attempt to characterize difference and uncertainty among various GRACE-born terrestrial water storage changes over the major continents estimated by a number of international research organizations. The results can provide beneficial reference to usage of

Global health in an open world requires an open mind

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sodemann, Morten

Why global health? Health has never been more clearly global than now. Social media have reorganized our way of talking, discussing and interacting globally by spreading happiness, hate speech, obesity and knowledge at the same time. Diseases have never had respect for border control. Polio has s...... is not a fashionable subject anymore but the story of HIV/AIDS is a lesson to global health decision makers. Rephrasing Elisabeth Pisani: whores have wisdom, and we had better open our minds and face it...

Global patterns of socioeconomic biomass flows in the year 2000. A comprehensive assessment of supply, consumption and constraints

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krausmann, Fridolin; Erb, Karl-Heinz; Gingrich, Simone; Lauk, Christian; Haberl, Helmut

2008-01-01

Human use of biomass has become a major component of the global biogeochemical cycles of carbon and nitrogen. The use of land for biomass production (e.g. cropland) is among the most important pressures on biodiversity. At the same time, biomass is indispensable for humans as food, animal feed, raw material and energy source. In order to support research into these complex issues, we here present a comprehensive assessment of global socioeconomic biomass harvest, use and trade for the year 2000. We developed country-level livestock balances and a consistent set of factors to estimate flows of used biomass not covered by international statistics (e.g. grazed biomass, crop residues) and indirect flows (i.e. biomass destroyed during harvest but not used). We found that current global terrestrial biomass appropriation amounted to 18.7 billion tonnes dry matter per year (Pg/yr) or 16% of global terrestrial NPP of which 6.6 Pg/yr were indirect flows. Only 12% of the economically used plant biomass (12.1 Pg/yr) directly served as human food, while 58% were used as feed for livestock, 20% as raw material and 10% as fuelwood. There are considerable regional variations in biomass supply and use. Distinguishing 11 world regions, we found that extraction of used biomass ranged from 0.3 to 2.8 t/ha/yr, per-capita values varied between 1.2 and 11.7 t/cap/yr (dry matter). Aggregate global biomass trade amounted to 7.5% of all extracted biomass. An analysis of these regional patterns revealed that the level of biomass use per capita is determined by historically evolved patterns of land use and population density rather than by affluence or economic development status. Regions with low population density have the highest level of per-capita biomass use, high-density regions the lowest. Livestock, consuming 30-75% of all harvested biomass, is another important factor explaining regional variations in biomass use. Global biomass demand is expected to grow during the next decades

Two-stage effects of awareness cascade on epidemic spreading in multiplex networks

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Quantong; Jiang, Xin; Lei, Yanjun; Li, Meng; Ma, Yifang; Zheng, Zhiming

2015-01-01

Human awareness plays an important role in the spread of infectious diseases and the control of propagation patterns. The dynamic process with human awareness is called awareness cascade, during which individuals exhibit herd-like behavior because they are making decisions based on the actions of other individuals [Borge-Holthoefer et al., J. Complex Networks 1, 3 (2013), 10.1093/comnet/cnt006]. In this paper, to investigate the epidemic spreading with awareness cascade, we propose a local awareness controlled contagion spreading model on multiplex networks. By theoretical analysis using a microscopic Markov chain approach and numerical simulations, we find the emergence of an abrupt transition of epidemic threshold βc with the local awareness ratio α approximating 0.5 , which induces two-stage effects on epidemic threshold and the final epidemic size. These findings indicate that the increase of α can accelerate the outbreak of epidemics. Furthermore, a simple 1D lattice model is investigated to illustrate the two-stage-like sharp transition at αc≈0.5 . The results can give us a better understanding of why some epidemics cannot break out in reality and also provide a potential access to suppressing and controlling the awareness cascading systems.

Spreading to localized targets in complex networks

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Ye; Ma, Long; Zeng, An; Wang, Wen-Xu

2016-12-01

As an important type of dynamics on complex networks, spreading is widely used to model many real processes such as the epidemic contagion and information propagation. One of the most significant research questions in spreading is to rank the spreading ability of nodes in the network. To this end, substantial effort has been made and a variety of effective methods have been proposed. These methods usually define the spreading ability of a node as the number of finally infected nodes given that the spreading is initialized from the node. However, in many real cases such as advertising and news propagation, the spreading only aims to cover a specific group of nodes. Therefore, it is necessary to study the spreading ability of nodes towards localized targets in complex networks. In this paper, we propose a reversed local path algorithm for this problem. Simulation results show that our method outperforms the existing methods in identifying the influential nodes with respect to these localized targets. Moreover, the influential spreaders identified by our method can effectively avoid infecting the non-target nodes in the spreading process.

The Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) and its impacts on the Indian Ocean during the global warming slowdown period

Science.gov (United States)

Makarim, S.; Liu, Z.; Yu, W.; Yan, X.; Sprintall, J.

2016-12-01

The global warming slowdown indicated by a slower warming rate at the surface layer accompanied by stronger heat transport into the deeper layers has been explored in the Indian Ocean. Although the mechanisms of the global warming slowdown are still under warm debate, some clues have been recognized that decadal La Nina like-pattern induced decadal cooling in the Pacific Ocean and generated an increase of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) transport in 2004-2010. However, how the ITF spreading to the interior of the Indian Ocean and the impact of ITF changes on the Indian Ocean, in particular its water mass transformation and current system are still unknown. To this end, we analyzed thermohaline structure and current system at different depths in the Indian Ocean both during and just before the global warming slowdown period using the ORAS4 and ARGO dataset. Here, we found the new edge of ITF at off Sumatra presumably as northward deflection of ITF Lombok Strait, and The Monsoon Onset Monitoring and Social Ecology Impact (MOMSEI) and Java Upwelling Variation Observation (JUVO) dataset confirmed this evident. An isopycnal mixing method initially proposed by Du et al. (2013) is adopted to quantify the spreading of ITF water in the Indian Ocean, and therefore the impacts of ITF changes on the variation of the Agulhas Current, Leuween Current, Bay of Bengal Water. This study also prevailed the fresher salinity in the Indian Ocean during the slowdown warming period were not only contributed by stronger transport of the ITF, but also by freshening Arabian Sea and infiltrating Antartic Intermediate Water (AAIW).

Spatial And Temporal Patterns As Well As Major Influencing Factors Of Global And Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance Over China: 1960-2014

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, H.; Sun, F.

2017-12-01

Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) on Earth is a central element of climate systems. With changes in the climate and regional development, the patterns and influencing factors of GHI, in addition to presenting global consistency, are increasingly showing regional particularities. Based on data for GHI, Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance (DHI) and potential impact factors (geographical position, elevation, cloud cover, water vapor, and ground atmospheric transparency related variables) from 1960 to 2014 in China, we analyzed the pattern and major influencing factors of GHI and DHI. The results showed that the major influencing factors of the GHI spatial pattern were the total cloud cover (TCC) and relative humidity (RH) in China. Dividing all of China into two regions, the major factors were the water vapor pressure (WVP) in the northern region and TCC in the southern region. And we divided the GHI and DHI data into two periods (1960-1987 and 1988-2014) due to global dimming and brightening observed in China in the late 1980's. The temporal GHI showed that 31 of 58 decreased significantly with an average decreasing rate of 95 MJ.10yr-1 during the periods of 1960-2014 and 49 of 76 stations decreased significantly with an rate of 342 MJ.10yr-1 during 1960-1987, whereas 57 of 88 stations did not change and 24 stations increased significantly with an rate of 201 MJ.10yr-1 during the period of 1988-2014. The temporal DHI showed that 40 of 61sites did not change significantly from 1960 to 1987. The major influencing factors for temporal changes of GHI in nine typical cities from 1960 to 2013 were as follows: air quality-related variables in super cities, sandstorms and wind in desert oasis cities, clouds in cities with good air quality and a low cloud amount (LCA) and annual fog days (FD) in Chengdu. Overall, we identified characteristics of GHI and DHI based on global climate change and regional urban development and found that the spatial characteristics of GHI results for

Estimation of wave directional spreading

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Deo, M.C.; Gondane, D.S.; SanilKumar, V.

One of the useful measures of waves directional spreading at a given location is the directional spreading parameter. This paper presents a new approach to arrive at its characteristic value using the computational technique of Artificial Neural...

Searching for the most cost-effective strategy for controlling epidemics spreading on regular and small-world networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Kleczkowski, Adam; Oleś, Katarzyna; Gudowska-Nowak, Ewa; Gilligan, Christopher A

2012-01-07

We present a combined epidemiological and economic model for control of diseases spreading on local and small-world networks. The disease is characterized by a pre-symptomatic infectious stage that makes detection and control of cases more difficult. The effectiveness of local (ring-vaccination or culling) and global control strategies is analysed by comparing the net present values of the combined cost of preventive treatment and illness. The optimal strategy is then selected by minimizing the total cost of the epidemic. We show that three main strategies emerge, with treating a large number of individuals (global strategy, GS), treating a small number of individuals in a well-defined neighbourhood of a detected case (local strategy) and allowing the disease to spread unchecked (null strategy, NS). The choice of the optimal strategy is governed mainly by a relative cost of palliative and preventive treatments. If the disease spreads within the well-defined neighbourhood, the local strategy is optimal unless the cost of a single vaccine is much higher than the cost associated with hospitalization. In the latter case, it is most cost-effective to refrain from prevention. Destruction of local correlations, either by long-range (small-world) links or by inclusion of many initial foci, expands the range of costs for which the NS is most cost-effective. The GS emerges for the case when the cost of prevention is much lower than the cost of treatment and there is a substantial non-local component in the disease spread. We also show that local treatment is only desirable if the disease spreads on a small-world network with sufficiently few long-range links; otherwise it is optimal to treat globally. In the mean-field case, there are only two optimal solutions, to treat all if the cost of the vaccine is low and to treat nobody if it is high. The basic reproduction ratio, R(0), does not depend on the rate of responsive treatment in this case and the disease always invades

Onset conditions for equatorial spread F

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mendillo, M.; Baumgardner, J.; Xiaoqing Pi; Sultan, P.J.; Tsunoda, R.

1992-01-01

The problem of day-to-day variability in the occurrence of equatorial spread F (ESF) is addressed using multidiagnostic observations and semiempirical modeling. The observational results are derived from a two-night case study of ESF onset conditions observed at Kwajalein Atoll (Marshall Islands) using the ALTAIR incoherent scatter radar and all-sky optical imaging techniques. The major difference between nights when ESF instabilities did not occur (August 14, 1988) and did occur (August 15, 1988) in the Kwajalein sector was that the northern meridional gradient of 6300-angstrom airglow was reduced on the night of limited ESF activity. Modeling results suggest that this unusual airglow pattern is due to equatorward neutral winds. Previous researchers have shown that transequatorial thermospheric winds can exert a control over ESF seasonal and longitudinal occurrence patterns by inhibiting Rayleigh-Taylor instability growth rates. They present evidence to suggest that this picture can be extended to far shorter time scales, namely, that 'surges' in transequatoral winds acting over characteristic times of a few hours to a day can result in a stabilizing influence upon irregularity growth rates. The seemingly capricious nature of ESF onset may thus be controlled, in part, by the inherent variability of low-latitude thermospheric winds

The phylogeography and spatiotemporal spread of south-central skunk rabies virus.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Natalia A Kuzmina

Full Text Available The south-central skunk rabies virus (SCSK is the most broadly distributed terrestrial viral lineage in North America. Skunk rabies has not been efficiently targeted by oral vaccination campaigns and represents a natural system of pathogen invasion, yielding insights to rabies emergence. In the present study we reconstructed spatiotemporal spread of SCSK in the whole territory of its circulation using a combination of Bayesian methods. The analysis based on 241 glycoprotein gene sequences demonstrated that SCSK is much more divergent phylogenetically than was appreciated previously. According to our analyses the SCSK originated in the territory of Texas ~170 years ago, and spread geographically during the following decades. The wavefront velocity in the northward direction was significantly greater than in the eastward and westward directions. Rivers (except the Mississippi River and Rio Grande River did not constitute significant barriers for epizootic spread, in contrast to deserts and mountains. The mean dispersal rate of skunk rabies was lower than that of the raccoon and fox rabies. Viral lineages circulate in their areas with limited evidence of geographic spread during decades. However, spatiotemporal reconstruction shows that after a long period of stability the dispersal rate and wavefront velocity of SCSK are increasing. Our results indicate that there is a need to develop control measures for SCSK, and suggest how such measure can be implemented most efficiently. Our approach can be extrapolated to other rabies reservoirs and used as a tool for investigation of epizootic patterns and planning interventions towards disease elimination.

Review Essay: Moving beyond Global Encounters toward Global Reciprocity: Christian Education in East Asian Perspectives

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Kim, Hyun-Sook

2015-01-01

Christianity as a world religion was propagated from Europe and North America to Africa and Asia. Global Christianity spread to East Asia when Robert Morrison (1782-1843) arrived in Canton, China in 1807, and later in the late 19th-century Protestant missionaries from North America arrived in Japan and Korea. This Christianity experienced a modern…

Spreading gossip in social networks

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Lind, Pedro G.; da Silva, Luciano R.; Andrade, José S., Jr.; Herrmann, Hans J.

2007-09-01

We study a simple model of information propagation in social networks, where two quantities are introduced: the spread factor, which measures the average maximal reachability of the neighbors of a given node that interchange information among each other, and the spreading time needed for the information to reach such a fraction of nodes. When the information refers to a particular node at which both quantities are measured, the model can be taken as a model for gossip propagation. In this context, we apply the model to real empirical networks of social acquaintances and compare the underlying spreading dynamics with different types of scale-free and small-world networks. We find that the number of friendship connections strongly influences the probability of being gossiped. Finally, we discuss how the spread factor is able to be applied to other situations.

Spreading gossip in social networks.

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Lind, Pedro G; da Silva, Luciano R; Andrade, José S; Herrmann, Hans J

2007-09-01

We study a simple model of information propagation in social networks, where two quantities are introduced: the spread factor, which measures the average maximal reachability of the neighbors of a given node that interchange information among each other, and the spreading time needed for the information to reach such a fraction of nodes. When the information refers to a particular node at which both quantities are measured, the model can be taken as a model for gossip propagation. In this context, we apply the model to real empirical networks of social acquaintances and compare the underlying spreading dynamics with different types of scale-free and small-world networks. We find that the number of friendship connections strongly influences the probability of being gossiped. Finally, we discuss how the spread factor is able to be applied to other situations.

Modelling dengue epidemic spreading with human mobility

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Barmak, D. H.; Dorso, C. O.; Otero, M.

2016-04-01

We explored the effect of human mobility on the spatio-temporal dynamics of Dengue with a stochastic model that takes into account the epidemiological dynamics of the infected mosquitoes and humans, with different mobility patterns of the human population. We observed that human mobility strongly affects the spread of infection by increasing the final size and by changing the morphology of the epidemic outbreaks. When the spreading of the disease is driven only by mosquito dispersal (flight), a main central focus expands diffusively. On the contrary, when human mobility is taken into account, multiple foci appear throughout the evolution of the outbreaks. These secondary foci generated throughout the outbreaks could be of little importance according to their mass or size compared with the largest main focus. However, the coalescence of these foci with the main one generates an effect, through which the latter develops a size greater than the one obtained in the case driven only by mosquito dispersal. This increase in growth rate due to human mobility and the coalescence of the foci are particularly relevant in temperate cities such as the city of Buenos Aires, since they give more possibilities to the outbreak to grow before the arrival of the low-temperature season. The findings of this work indicate that human mobility could be the main driving force in the dynamics of vector epidemics.

Population History and Pathways of Spread of the Plant Pathogen Phytophthora plurivora

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Schoebel, Corine N.; Stewart, Jane; Gruenwald, Niklaus J.; Rigling, Daniel; Prospero, Simone

2014-01-01

Human activity has been shown to considerably affect the spread of dangerous pests and pathogens worldwide. Therefore, strict regulations of international trade exist for particularly harmful pathogenic organisms. Phytophthora plurivora, which is not subject to regulations, is a plant pathogen frequently found on a broad range of host species, both in natural and artificial environments. It is supposed to be native to Europe while resident populations are also present in the US. We characterized a hierarchical sample of isolates from Europe and the US and conducted coalescent-, migration, and population genetic analysis of sequence and microsatellite data, to determine the pathways of spread and the demographic history of this pathogen. We found P. plurivora populations to be moderately diverse but not geographically structured. High levels of gene flow were observed within Europe and unidirectional from Europe to the US. Coalescent analyses revealed a signal of a recent expansion of the global P. plurivora population. Our study shows that P. plurivora has most likely been spread around the world by nursery trade of diseased plant material. In particular, P. plurivora was introduced into the US from Europe. International trade has allowed the pathogen to colonize new environments and/or hosts, resulting in population growth. PMID:24427303

COMBINED SURGERY OF SPREAD THYROID CANCER

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. Zh. Brzhezovsky

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Results of treating of 99 patients with differentiated thyroid cancer spreading beyond the capsule of the organ were analysed. In most cases with spreading the tumor to the tracheal rings performing of organ-preserving operations (from “window-like” tracheal resections to circular tracheal resection with intertracheal anastomosis is possible. Choosing of type of operation to be performed depends on localisation and spread of tumor invasion of trachea, pharynx and esophagus. Using of combined operations in patients with locally-spread thyroid cancer allows to achieve long and stable remission in most of the cases.

Initial spread of {sup 137}Cs from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant over the Japan continental shelf. A study using a high-resolution, global-coastal nested ocean model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lai, Z. [Sun Yat-Sen Univ., Guangzhou (China). School of Marine Sciences; Univ. of Massachusetts-Dartmouth, New Bedford, MA (United States). School for Marine Science and Technology; Key Laboratory of Marine Resources and Coastal Engineering in Guangdong Province, Guangzhou (China); Chen, C.; Lin, H. [Univ. of Massachusetts-Dartmouth, New Bedford, MA (United States). School for Marine Science and Technology; Shanghai Ocean Univ. (China). International Center for Marine Studies; Beardsley, R. [Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA (United States). Dept. of Physical Oceanography; Ji, R. [Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA (United States). Dept. of Biology; Shanghai Ocean Univ. (China). International Center for Marine Studies; Sasaki, J. [The Univ. of Tokyo, Kashiwa (Japan). Dept. of Socio-Cultural Environmental Studies; Lin, J. [Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA (United States). Dept. of Geology and Geophysics

2013-07-01

The 11 March 2011 tsunami triggered by the M9 and M7.9 earthquakes off the Tohoku coast destroyed facilities at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP) leading to a significant long-term flow of the radionuclide {sup 137}Cs into coastal waters. A high-resolution, global-coastal nested ocean model was first constructed to simulate the 11 March tsunami and coastal inundation. Based on the model's success in reproducing the observed tsunami and coastal inundation, model experiments were then conducted with differing grid resolution to assess the initial spread of {sup 137}Cs over the eastern shelf of Japan. The {sup 137}Cs was tracked as a conservative tracer (without radioactive decay) in the three-dimensional model flow field over the period of 26 March-31 August 2011. The results clearly show that for the same {sup 137}Cs discharge, the model-predicted spreading of {sup 137}Cs was sensitive not only to model resolution but also the FNPP seawall structure. A coarse-resolution (∝2 km) model simulation led to an overestimation of lateral diffusion and thus faster dispersion of {sup 137}Cs from the coast to the deep ocean, while advective processes played a more significant role when the model resolution at and around the FNPP was refined to ∝5 m. By resolving the pathways from the leaking source to the southern and northern discharge canals, the high-resolution model better predicted the {sup 137}Cs spreading in the inner shelf where in situ measurements were made at 30 km off the coast. The overestimation of {sup 137}Cs concentration near the coast is thought to be due to the omission of sedimentation and biogeochemical processes as well as uncertainties in the amount of {sup 137}Cs leaking from the source in the model. As a result, a biogeochemical module should be included in the model for more realistic simulations of the fate and spreading of {sup 137}Cs in the ocean.

Experience drives innovation of new migration patterns of whooping cranes in response to global change.

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Teitelbaum, Claire S; Converse, Sarah J; Fagan, William F; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin; O'Hara, Robert B; Lacy, Anne E; Mueller, Thomas

2016-09-06

Anthropogenic changes in climate and land use are driving changes in migration patterns of birds worldwide. Spatial changes in migration have been related to long-term temperature trends, but the intrinsic mechanisms by which migratory species adapt to environmental change remain largely unexplored. We show that, for a long-lived social species, older birds with more experience are critical for innovating new migration behaviours. Groups containing older, more experienced individuals establish new overwintering sites closer to the breeding grounds, leading to a rapid population-level shift in migration patterns. Furthermore, these new overwintering sites are in areas where changes in climate have increased temperatures and where food availability from agriculture is high, creating favourable conditions for overwintering. Our results reveal that the age structure of populations is critical for the behavioural mechanisms that allow species to adapt to global change, particularly for long-lived animals, where changes in behaviour can occur faster than evolution.

Experience drives innovation of new migration patterns of whooping cranes in response to global change

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Teitelbaum, Claire S.; Converse, Sarah J.; Fagan, William F.; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin; O'Hara, Robert B.; Lacy, Anne E; Mueller, Thomas

2016-01-01

Anthropogenic changes in climate and land use are driving changes in migration patterns of birds worldwide. Spatial changes in migration have been related to long-term temperature trends, but the intrinsic mechanisms by which migratory species adapt to environmental change remain largely unexplored. We show that, for a long-lived social species, older birds with more experience are critical for innovating new migration behaviours. Groups containing older, more experienced individuals establish new overwintering sites closer to the breeding grounds, leading to a rapid population-level shift in migration patterns. Furthermore, these new overwintering sites are in areas where changes in climate have increased temperatures and where food availability from agriculture is high, creating favourable conditions for overwintering. Our results reveal that the age structure of populations is critical for the behavioural mechanisms that allow species to adapt to global change, particularly for long-lived animals, where changes in behaviour can occur faster than evolution.

Epidemic spreading through direct and indirect interactions.

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Ganguly, Niloy; Krueger, Tyll; Mukherjee, Animesh; Saha, Sudipta

2014-09-01

In this paper we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic dynamics, considering a specialized setting where popular places (termed passive entities) are visited by agents (termed active entities). We consider two types of spreading dynamics: direct spreading, where the active entities infect each other while visiting the passive entities, and indirect spreading, where the passive entities act as carriers and the infection is spread via them. We investigate in particular the effect of selection strategy, i.e., the way passive entities are chosen, in the spread of epidemics. We introduce a mathematical framework to study the effect of an arbitrary selection strategy and derive formulas for prevalence, extinction probabilities, and epidemic thresholds for both indirect and direct spreading. We also obtain a very simple relationship between the extinction probability and the prevalence. We pay special attention to preferential selection and derive exact formulas. The analysis reveals that an increase in the diversity in the selection process lowers the epidemic thresholds. Comparing the direct and indirect spreading, we identify regions in the parameter space where the prevalence of the indirect spreading is higher than the direct one.

Statistical analysis of midlatitude spread F using multi-station digisonde observations

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Bhaneja, P.; Earle, G. D.; Bullett, T. W.

2018-01-01

A comprehensive statistical study of midlatitude spread F (MSF) is presented for five midlatitude stations in the North American sector. These stations include Ramey AFB, Puerto Rico (18.5°N, 67.1°W, -14° declination angle), Wallops Island, Virginia (37.95°N, 75.5°W, -11° declination angle), Dyess, Texas (32.4°N, 99.8°W, 6.9° declination angle), Boulder, Colorado (40°N, 105.3°W, 10° declination angle), and Vandenberg AFB, California (34.8°N, 120.5°W, 13° declination angle). Pattern recognition algorithms are used to determine the presence of both range and frequency spread F. Data from 1996 to 2011 are analyzed, covering all of Solar Cycle 23 and the beginning of Solar Cycle 24. Variations with respect to season and solar activity are presented, including the effects of the extended minimum between cycles 23 and 24.

A global assessment of market accessibility and market influence for global environmental change studies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verburg, P.H.; Ellis, E.C.; Letourneau, A.

2011-01-01

Markets influence the global patterns of urbanization, deforestation, agriculture and other land use systems. Yet market influence is rarely incorporated into spatially explicit global studies of environmental change, largely because consistent global data are lacking below the national level. Here

Reconstruction of global gridded monthly sectoral water withdrawals for 1971–2010 and analysis of their spatiotemporal patterns

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Z. Huang

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Human water withdrawal has increasingly altered the global water cycle in past decades, yet our understanding of its driving forces and patterns is limited. Reported historical estimates of sectoral water withdrawals are often sparse and incomplete, mainly restricted to water withdrawal estimates available at annual and country scales, due to a lack of observations at seasonal and local scales. In this study, through collecting and consolidating various sources of reported data and developing spatial and temporal statistical downscaling algorithms, we reconstruct a global monthly gridded (0.5° sectoral water withdrawal dataset for the period 1971–2010, which distinguishes six water use sectors, i.e., irrigation, domestic, electricity generation (cooling of thermal power plants, livestock, mining, and manufacturing. Based on the reconstructed dataset, the spatial and temporal patterns of historical water withdrawal are analyzed. Results show that total global water withdrawal has increased significantly during 1971–2010, mainly driven by the increase in irrigation water withdrawal. Regions with high water withdrawal are those densely populated or with large irrigated cropland production, e.g., the United States (US, eastern China, India, and Europe. Seasonally, irrigation water withdrawal in summer for the major crops contributes a large percentage of total annual irrigation water withdrawal in mid- and high-latitude regions, and the dominant season of irrigation water withdrawal is also different across regions. Domestic water withdrawal is mostly characterized by a summer peak, while water withdrawal for electricity generation has a winter peak in high-latitude regions and a summer peak in low-latitude regions. Despite the overall increasing trend, irrigation in the western US and domestic water withdrawal in western Europe exhibit a decreasing trend. Our results highlight the distinct spatial pattern of human water use by sectors at

[Applications of 2D and 3D landscape pattern indices in landscape pattern analysis of mountainous area at county level].

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Lu, Chao; Qi, Wei; Li, Le; Sun, Yao; Qin, Tian-Tian; Wang, Na-Na

2012-05-01

Landscape pattern indices are the commonly used tools for the quantitative analysis of landscape pattern. However, the traditional 2D landscape pattern indices neglect the effects of terrain on landscape, existing definite limitations in quantitatively describing the landscape patterns in mountains areas. Taking the Qixia City, a typical mountainous and hilly region in Shandong Province of East China, as a case, this paper compared the differences between 2D and 3D landscape pattern indices in quantitatively describing the landscape patterns and their dynamic changes in mountainous areas. On the basis of terrain structure analysis, a set of landscape pattern indices were selected, including area and density (class area and mean patch size), edge and shape (edge density, landscape shape index, and fractal dimension of mean patch), diversity (Shannon's diversity index and evenness index) , and gathering and spread (contagion index). There existed obvious differences between the 3D class area, mean patch area, and edge density and the corresponding 2D indices, but no significant differences between the 3D landscape shape index, fractal dimension of mean patch, and Shannon' s diversity index and evenness index and the corresponding 2D indices. The 3D contagion index and 2D contagion index had no difference. Because the 3D landscape pattern indices were calculated by using patch surface area and surface perimeter whereas the 2D landscape pattern indices were calculated by adopting patch projective area and projective perimeter, the 3D landscape pattern indices could be relative accurate and efficient in describing the landscape area, density and borderline, in mountainous areas. However, there were no distinct differences in describing landscape shape, diversity, and gathering and spread between the 3D and 2D landscape pattern indices. Generally, by introducing 3D landscape pattern indices to topographic pattern, the description of landscape pattern and its dynamic

Global health politics: neither solidarity nor policy: Comment on "Globalization and the diffusion of ideas: why we should acknowledge the roots of mainstream ideas in global health".

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Méndez, Claudio A

2014-07-01

The global health agenda has been dominating the current global health policy debate. Furthermore, it has compelled countries to embrace strategies for tackling health inequalities in a wide range of public health areas. The article by Robert and colleagues highlights that although globalization has increased opportunities to share and spread ideas, there is still great asymmetry of power according to the countries' economic and political development. It also emphasizes how policy diffusion from High Income Countries (HICs) to Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs) have had flaws at understanding their political, economic, and cultural backgrounds while they are pursuing knowledge translation. Achieving a fair global health policy diffusion of ideas would imply a call for a renewal on political elites worldwide at coping global health politics. Accordingly, moving towards fairness in disseminating global health ideas should be driven by politics not only as one of the social determinants of health, but the main determinant of health and well-being among-and within-societies.

A General Model of Negative Frequency Dependent Selection Explains Global Patterns of Human ABO Polymorphism.

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Fernando A Villanea

Full Text Available The ABO locus in humans is characterized by elevated heterozygosity and very similar allele frequencies among populations scattered across the globe. Using knowledge of ABO protein function, we generated a simple model of asymmetric negative frequency dependent selection and genetic drift to explain the maintenance of ABO polymorphism and its loss in human populations. In our models, regardless of the strength of selection, models with large effective population sizes result in ABO allele frequencies that closely match those observed in most continental populations. Populations must be moderately small to fall out of equilibrium and lose either the A or B allele (N(e ≤ 50 and much smaller (N(e ≤ 25 for the complete loss of diversity, which nearly always involved the fixation of the O allele. A pattern of low heterozygosity at the ABO locus where loss of polymorphism occurs in our model is consistent with small populations, such as Native American populations. This study provides a general evolutionary model to explain the observed global patterns of polymorphism at the ABO locus and the pattern of allele loss in small populations. Moreover, these results inform the range of population sizes associated with the recent human colonization of the Americas.

Rethinking pattern formation in reaction-diffusion systems

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Halatek, J.; Frey, E.

2018-05-01

The present theoretical framework for the analysis of pattern formation in complex systems is mostly limited to the vicinity of fixed (global) equilibria. Here we present a new theoretical approach to characterize dynamical states arbitrarily far from (global) equilibrium. We show that reaction-diffusion systems that are driven by locally mass-conserving interactions can be understood in terms of local equilibria of diffusively coupled compartments. Diffusive coupling generically induces lateral redistribution of the globally conserved quantities, and the variable local amounts of these quantities determine the local equilibria in each compartment. We find that, even far from global equilibrium, the system is well characterized by its moving local equilibria. We apply this framework to in vitro Min protein pattern formation, a paradigmatic model for biological pattern formation. Within our framework we can predict and explain transitions between chemical turbulence and order arbitrarily far from global equilibrium. Our results reveal conceptually new principles of self-organized pattern formation that may well govern diverse dynamical systems.

Globally Stable Microresonator Turing Pattern Formation for Coherent High-Power THz Radiation On-Chip

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Huang, Shu-Wei; Yang, Jinghui; Yang, Shang-Hua; Yu, Mingbin; Kwong, Dim-Lee; Zelevinsky, T.; Jarrahi, Mona; Wong, Chee Wei

2017-10-01

In nonlinear microresonators driven by continuous-wave (cw) lasers, Turing patterns have been studied in the formalism of the Lugiato-Lefever equation with emphasis on their high coherence and exceptional robustness against perturbations. Destabilization of Turing patterns and the transition to spatiotemporal chaos, however, limit the available energy carried in the Turing rolls and prevent further harvest of their high coherence and robustness to noise. Here, we report a novel scheme to circumvent such destabilization, by incorporating the effect of local mode hybridizations, and we attain globally stable Turing pattern formation in chip-scale nonlinear oscillators with significantly enlarged parameter space, achieving a record-high power-conversion efficiency of 45% and an elevated peak-to-valley contrast of 100. The stationary Turing pattern is discretely tunable across 430 GHz on a THz carrier, with a fractional frequency sideband nonuniformity measured at 7.3 ×10-14 . We demonstrate the simultaneous microwave and optical coherence of the Turing rolls at different evolution stages through ultrafast optical correlation techniques. The free-running Turing-roll coherence, 9 kHz in 200 ms and 160 kHz in 20 minutes, is transferred onto a plasmonic photomixer for one of the highest-power THz coherent generations at room temperature, with 1.1% optical-to-THz power conversion. Its long-term stability can be further improved by more than 2 orders of magnitude, reaching an Allan deviation of 6 ×10-10 at 100 s, with a simple computer-aided slow feedback control. The demonstrated on-chip coherent high-power Turing-THz system is promising to find applications in astrophysics, medical imaging, and wireless communications.

Forecasting oil price movements with crack spread futures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murat, Atilim; Tokat, Ekin

2009-01-01

In oil markets, the crack spread refers to the crude-product price relationship. Refiners are major participants in oil markets and they are primarily exposed to the crack spread. In other words, refiner activity is substantially driven by the objective of protecting the crack spread. Moreover, oil consumers are active participants in the oil hedging market and they are frequently exposed to the crack spread. From another perspective, hedge funds are heavily using crack spread to speculate in oil markets. Based on the high volume of crack spread futures trading in oil markets, the question we want to raise is whether the crack spread futures can be a good predictor of oil price movements. We investigated first whether there is a causal relationship between the crack spread futures and the spot oil markets in a vector error correction framework. We found the causal impact of crack spread futures on spot oil market both in the long- and the short-run after April 2003 where we detected a structural break in the model. To examine the forecasting performance, we use the random walk model (RWM) as a benchmark, and we also evaluate the forecasting power of crack spread futures against the crude oil futures. The results showed that (a) both the crack spread futures and the crude oil futures outperformed the RWM; and (b) the crack spread futures are almost as good as the crude oil futures in predicting the movements in spot oil markets. (author)

The workforce for health in a globalized context--global shortages and international migration.

Science.gov (United States)

Aluttis, Christoph; Bishaw, Tewabech; Frank, Martina W

2014-01-01

The 'crisis in human resources' in the health sector has been described as one of the most pressing global health issues of our time. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that the world faces a global shortage of almost 4.3 million doctors, midwives, nurses, and other healthcare professionals. A global undersupply of these threatens the quality and sustainability of health systems worldwide. This undersupply is concurrent with globalization and the resulting liberalization of markets, which allow health workers to offer their services in countries other than those of their origin. The opportunities of health workers to seek employment abroad has led to a complex migration pattern, characterized by a flow of health professionals from low- to high-income countries. This global migration pattern has sparked a broad international debate about the consequences for health systems worldwide, including questions about sustainability, justice, and global social accountabilities. This article provides a review of this phenomenon and gives an overview of the current scope of health workforce migration patterns. It further focuses on the scientific discourse regarding health workforce migration and its effects on both high- and low-income countries in an interdependent world. The article also reviews the internal and external factors that fuel health worker migration and illustrates how health workforce migration is a classic global health issue of our time. Accordingly, it elaborates on the international community's approach to solving the workforce crisis, focusing in particular on the WHO Code of Practice, established in 2010.

Population genetic structure of a common host predicts the spread of white-nose syndrome, an emerging infectious disease in bats.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilder, Aryn P; Kunz, Thomas H; Sorenson, Michael D

2015-11-01

Landscape complexity influences patterns of animal dispersal, which in turn may affect both gene flow and the spread of pathogens. White-nose syndrome (WNS) is an introduced fungal disease that has spread rapidly throughout eastern North America, causing massive mortality in bat populations. We tested for a relationship between the population genetic structure of the most common host, the little brown myotis (Myotis lucifugus), and the geographic spread of WNS to date by evaluating logistic regression models of WNS risk among hibernating colonies in eastern North America. We hypothesized that risk of WNS to susceptible host colonies should increase with both geographic proximity and genetic similarity, reflecting historical connectivity, to infected colonies. Consistent with this hypothesis, inclusion of genetic distance between infected and susceptible colonies significantly improved models of disease spread, capturing heterogeneity in the spatial expansion of WNS despite low levels of genetic differentiation among eastern populations. Expanding our genetic analysis to the continental range of little brown myotis reveals strongly contrasting patterns of population structure between eastern and western North America. Genetic structure increases markedly moving westward into the northern Great Plains, beyond the current distribution of WNS. In western North America, genetic differentiation of geographically proximate populations often exceeds levels observed across the entire eastern region, suggesting infrequent and/or locally restricted dispersal, and thus relatively limited opportunities for pathogen introduction in western North America. Taken together, our analyses suggest a possibly slower future rate of spread of the WNS pathogen, at least as mediated by little brown myotis. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Ocean Circulation and Mixing Relevant to the Global System

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Gordon, Arnold

1999-01-01

.... Arlindo's goal is to resolve the circulation and water mass stratification within the Indonesian Seas in order to formulate a thorough description of the source, spreading patterns, inter-ocean...

Global VDET pattern recognition for ALEPH

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bazarko, Andrew; Pusztaszeri, Jean-Francois; Rensing, Paul E.; Brown, David; Gay, Pascal

1996-01-01

With the current reliance on high-precision vertex detectors to provide very accurate information about the primary and secondary vertices in an event, the accuracy and efficiency of the assignment of vertex detectors hits to tracks has become crucial. This paper discusses new software written for ALEPH which attempts to make this assignment in a global manner using interger programming techniques. (author)

Global dispersal pattern of HIV type 1 subtype CRF01-AE : A genetic trace of human mobility related to heterosexual sexual activities centralized in southeast Asia

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Angelis, Konstantinos; Albert, Jan; Mamais, Ioannis; Magiorkinis, Gkikas; Hatzakis, Angelos; Hamouda, Osamah; Struck, Daniel; Vercauteren, Jurgen; Wensing, Annemarie M J; Alexiev, Ivailo; Åsjö, Birgitta; Balotta, Claudia; Camacho, Ricardo J.; Coughlan, Suzie; Griskevicius, Algirdas; Grossman, Zehava; Horban, Andrzej; Kostrikis, Leondios G.; Lepej, Snjezana; Liitsola, Kirsi; Linka, Marek; Nielsen, Claus; Otelea, Dan; Paredes, Roger; Poljak, Mario; Puchhammer-Stöckl, Elisabeth; Schmit, Jean Claude; Sönnerborg, Anders; Staneková, Danica; Stanojevic, Maja; Boucher, Charles A B; Kaplan, Lauren; Vandamme, Anne Mieke; Paraskevis, Dimitrios

2015-01-01

Background. Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) subtype CRF01-AE originated in Africa and then passed to Thailand, where it established a major epidemic. Despite the global presence of CRF01-AE, little is known about its subsequent dispersal pattern. Methods. We assembled a global data set

Existence of global attractor for the Trojan Y Chromosome model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaopeng Zhao

2012-04-01

Full Text Available This paper is concerned with the long time behavior of solution for the equation derived by the Trojan Y Chromosome (TYC model with spatial spread. Based on the regularity estimates for the semigroups and the classical existence theorem of global attractors, we prove that this equations possesses a global attractor in $H^k(\\Omega^4$ $(k\\geq 0$ space.

Making sense of the global health crisis: policy narratives, conflict, and global health governance.

Science.gov (United States)

Ney, Steven

2012-04-01

Health has become a policy issue of global concern. Worried that the unstructured, polycentric, and pluralist nature of global health governance is undermining the ability to serve emergent global public health interests, some commentators are calling for a more systematic institutional response to the "global health crisis." Yet global health is a complex and uncertain policy issue. This article uses narrative analysis to explore how actors deal with these complexities and how uncertainties affect global health governance. By comparing three narratives in terms of their basic assumptions, the way they define problems as well as the solutions they propose, the analysis shows how the unstructured pluralism of global health policy making creates a wide scope of policy conflict over the global health crisis. This wide scope of conflict enables effective policy-oriented learning about global health issues. The article also shows how exclusionary patterns of cooperation and competition are emerging in health policy making at the global level. These patterns threaten effective learning by risking both polarization of the policy debate and unanticipated consequences of health policy. Avoiding these pitfalls, the analysis suggests, means creating global health governance regimes that promote openness and responsiveness in deliberation about the global health crisis.

Global bioethics -- myth or reality?

Science.gov (United States)

Holm, Søren; Williams-Jones, Bryn

2006-09-11

There has been debate on whether a global or unified field of bioethics exists. If bioethics is a unified global field, or at the very least a closely shared way of thinking, then we should expect bioethicists to behave the same way in their academic activities anywhere in the world. This paper investigates whether there is a 'global bioethics' in the sense of a unified academic community. To address this question, we study the web-linking patterns of bioethics institutions, the citation patterns of bioethics papers and the buying patterns of bioethics books. All three analyses indicate that there are geographical and institutional differences in the academic behavior of bioethicists and bioethics institutions. These exploratory studies support the position that there is no unified global field of bioethics. This is a problem if the only reason is parochialism. But these regional differences are probably of less concern if one notices that bioethics comes in many not always mutually understandable dialects.

Perineural spread in head and neck tumors.

Science.gov (United States)

Brea Álvarez, B; Tuñón Gómez, M

2014-01-01

Perineural spread is the dissemination of some types of head and neck tumors along nervous structures. Perineural spread has negative repercussions on treatment because it requires more extensive resection and larger fields of irradiation. Moreover, perineural spread is associated with increased local recurrence, and it is considered an independent indicator of poor prognosis in the TNM classification for tumor staging. However, perineural spread often goes undetected on imaging studies. In this update, we review the concept of perineural spread, its pathogenesis, and the main pathways and connections among the facial nerves, which are essential to understand this process. Furthermore, we discuss the appropriate techniques for imaging studies, and we describe and illustrate the typical imaging signs that help identify perineural spread on CT and MRI. Finally, we discuss the differential diagnosis with other entities. Copyright © 2013 SERAM. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Global stability and pattern formation in a nonlocal diffusive Lotka-Volterra competition model

Science.gov (United States)

Ni, Wenjie; Shi, Junping; Wang, Mingxin

2018-06-01

A diffusive Lotka-Volterra competition model with nonlocal intraspecific and interspecific competition between species is formulated and analyzed. The nonlocal competition strength is assumed to be determined by a diffusion kernel function to model the movement pattern of the biological species. It is shown that when there is no nonlocal intraspecific competition, the dynamics properties of nonlocal diffusive competition problem are similar to those of classical diffusive Lotka-Volterra competition model regardless of the strength of nonlocal interspecific competition. Global stability of nonnegative constant equilibria are proved using Lyapunov or upper-lower solution methods. On the other hand, strong nonlocal intraspecific competition increases the system spatiotemporal dynamic complexity. For the weak competition case, the nonlocal diffusive competition model may possess nonconstant positive equilibria for some suitably large nonlocal intraspecific competition coefficients.

Global cancer patterns: causes and prevention.

Science.gov (United States)

Vineis, Paolo; Wild, Christopher P

2014-02-08

Cancer is a global and growing, but not uniform, problem. An increasing proportion of the burden is falling on low-income and middle-income countries because of not only demographic change but also a transition in risk factors, whereby the consequences of the globalisation of economies and behaviours are adding to an existing burden of cancers of infectious origin. We argue that primary prevention is a particularly effective way to fight cancer, with between a third and a half of cancers being preventable on the basis of present knowledge of risk factors. Primary prevention has several advantages: the effectiveness could have benefits for people other than those directly targeted, avoidance of exposure to carcinogenic agents is likely to prevent other non-communicable diseases, and the cause could be removed or reduced in the long term--eg, through regulatory measures against occupational or environmental exposures (ie, the preventive effort does not need to be renewed with every generation, which is especially important when resources are in short supply). Primary prevention must therefore be prioritised as an integral part of global cancer control. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Initial spread of "1"3"7Cs from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant over the Japan continental shelf. A study using a high-resolution, global-coastal nested ocean model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lai, Z.; Chen, C.; Lin, H.; Shanghai Ocean Univ.; Beardsley, R.; Ji, R.; Shanghai Ocean Univ.; Sasaki, J.; Lin, J.

2013-01-01

The 11 March 2011 tsunami triggered by the M9 and M7.9 earthquakes off the Tohoku coast destroyed facilities at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP) leading to a significant long-term flow of the radionuclide "1"3"7Cs into coastal waters. A high-resolution, global-coastal nested ocean model was first constructed to simulate the 11 March tsunami and coastal inundation. Based on the model's success in reproducing the observed tsunami and coastal inundation, model experiments were then conducted with differing grid resolution to assess the initial spread of "1"3"7Cs over the eastern shelf of Japan. The "1"3"7Cs was tracked as a conservative tracer (without radioactive decay) in the three-dimensional model flow field over the period of 26 March-31 August 2011. The results clearly show that for the same "1"3"7Cs discharge, the model-predicted spreading of "1"3"7Cs was sensitive not only to model resolution but also the FNPP seawall structure. A coarse-resolution (∝2 km) model simulation led to an overestimation of lateral diffusion and thus faster dispersion of "1"3"7Cs from the coast to the deep ocean, while advective processes played a more significant role when the model resolution at and around the FNPP was refined to ∝5 m. By resolving the pathways from the leaking source to the southern and northern discharge canals, the high-resolution model better predicted the "1"3"7Cs spreading in the inner shelf where in situ measurements were made at 30 km off the coast. The overestimation of "1"3"7Cs concentration near the coast is thought to be due to the omission of sedimentation and biogeochemical processes as well as uncertainties in the amount of "1"3"7Cs leaking from the source in the model. As a result, a biogeochemical module should be included in the model for more realistic simulations of the fate and spreading of "1"3"7Cs in the ocean.

Patterns of spread and persistence of foot-and-mouth disease types A, O and Asia-1 in Turkey: a meta-population approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Gilbert, M; Aktas, S; Mohammed, H; Roeder, P; Sumption, K; Tufan, M; Slingenbergh, J

2005-06-01

Despite significant control efforts, foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) persists in Turkey, and new strains of serotypes A, O and Asia-1 are periodically reported to enter the country from the east. The status of FMD in Turkey is important regionally because the country forms a natural bridge between Asia where the disease is endemic, and Europe which has disease-free status. This study analysed spatial and temporal patterns of FMD occurrence in Turkey to explore factors associated with the disease's persistence and spread. Annual records of FMD distribution in Turkish provinces throughout 1990-2002, grouped by serotype (O, A and Asia 1), were analysed using geostatistical techniques to explore their spatial and temporal patterns. A meta-population model was used to test how disease status, expressed in terms of presence/absence, extinction, and colonization, and measured at the province level throughout the periods 1990-1996 and 1997 2002, could be predicted using province-level data on: ruminant livestock numbers; meat production-demand discrepancy (as a surrogate measure of animal and animal products marketing, i.e. long-distance contagion through the traffic of mainly live animals to urban centres); and the disease prevalence distribution as recorded for the previous year. A drastic overall reduction in FMD occurrence was observed from the period 1990-1996 to 1997-2002 when the disease was shown to retract into persistence islands. FMD occurrence was associated with host abundance, short distance contagion from adjacent provinces, and meat production-demand discrepancies. With FMD retracting into identified provinces, a shift in predictors of FMD occurrence was observed with a lower contribution of short-distance contagion, and a relatively higher association with meat production-demand discrepancies leading to live animal transport over long distances, and hence presenting opportunities for identifying critical-control points. The pattern of persistence differed

Using friends as sensors to detect global-scale contagious outbreaks.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Manuel Garcia-Herranz

Full Text Available Recent research has focused on the monitoring of global-scale online data for improved detection of epidemics, mood patterns, movements in the stock market political revolutions, box-office revenues, consumer behaviour and many other important phenomena. However, privacy considerations and the sheer scale of data available online are quickly making global monitoring infeasible, and existing methods do not take full advantage of local network structure to identify key nodes for monitoring. Here, we develop a model of the contagious spread of information in a global-scale, publicly-articulated social network and show that a simple method can yield not just early detection, but advance warning of contagious outbreaks. In this method, we randomly choose a small fraction of nodes in the network and then we randomly choose a friend of each node to include in a group for local monitoring. Using six months of data from most of the full Twittersphere, we show that this friend group is more central in the network and it helps us to detect viral outbreaks of the use of novel hashtags about 7 days earlier than we could with an equal-sized randomly chosen group. Moreover, the method actually works better than expected due to network structure alone because highly central actors are both more active and exhibit increased diversity in the information they transmit to others. These results suggest that local monitoring is not just more efficient, but also more effective, and it may be applied to monitor contagious processes in global-scale networks.

Development of Pistachio (Pistacia vera L.) spread.

Science.gov (United States)

Shakerardekani, Ahmad; Karim, Roselina; Ghazali, Hasanah Mohd; Chin, Nyuk Ling

2013-03-01

Pistachio nut (Pistacia vera L.) is one of the most delicious and nutritious nuts in the world. Pistachio spreads were developed using pistachio paste as the main component, icing sugar, soy protein isolate (SPI), and red palm oil (RPO), at different ratios. The highest mean scores of all the sensory attributes were depicted by spreads that were made without addition of SPI. It was found that the work of shear was 0 to 11.0 kg s for an acceptable spread. Sensory spreadability, overall texture, spreadability, and overall acceptability were negatively correlated (R > 0.83) with the work of shear of spreads. The findings indicated that the presence of RPO had a direct effect on the viscoelastic behavior of the pistachio spreads. The a values, which are related to the green color of the pistachio product ranged from 1.7 to 3.9 for spread without addition of RPO, and 4.0 to 5.3 in the presence of RPO. The development of pistachio spread would potentially increase the food uses of pistachio and introduce consumers with a healthier snack food. © 2013 Institute of Food Technologists®

Global patterns of current and future road infrastructure

Science.gov (United States)

Meijer, Johan R.; Huijbregts, Mark A. J.; Schotten, Kees C. G. J.; Schipper, Aafke M.

2018-06-01

Georeferenced information on road infrastructure is essential for spatial planning, socio-economic assessments and environmental impact analyses. Yet current global road maps are typically outdated or characterized by spatial bias in coverage. In the Global Roads Inventory Project we gathered, harmonized and integrated nearly 60 geospatial datasets on road infrastructure into a global roads dataset. The resulting dataset covers 222 countries and includes over 21 million km of roads, which is two to three times the total length in the currently best available country-based global roads datasets. We then related total road length per country to country area, population density, GDP and OECD membership, resulting in a regression model with adjusted R 2 of 0.90, and found that that the highest road densities are associated with densely populated and wealthier countries. Applying our regression model to future population densities and GDP estimates from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios, we obtained a tentative estimate of 3.0–4.7 million km additional road length for the year 2050. Large increases in road length were projected for developing nations in some of the world’s last remaining wilderness areas, such as the Amazon, the Congo basin and New Guinea. This highlights the need for accurate spatial road datasets to underpin strategic spatial planning in order to reduce the impacts of roads in remaining pristine ecosystems.

Pattern of NDVI-based vegetation greening along an altitudinal gradient in the eastern Himalayas and its response to global warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Haidong; Jiang, Jiang; Chen, Bin; Li, Yingkui; Xu, Yuyue; Shen, Weishou

2016-03-01

The eastern Himalayas, especially the Yarlung Zangbo Grand Canyon Nature Reserve (YNR), is a global hotspot of biodiversity because of a wide variety of climatic conditions and elevations ranging from 500 to > 7000 m above sea level (a.s.l.). The mountain ecosystems at different elevations are vulnerable to climate change; however, there has been little research into the patterns of vegetation greening and their response to global warming. The objective of this paper is to examine the pattern of vegetation greening in different altitudinal zones in the YNR and its relationship with vegetation types and climatic factors. Specifically, the inter-annual change of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and its variation along altitudinal gradient between 1999 and 2013 was investigated using SPOT-VGT NDVI data and ASTER global digital elevation model (GDEM) data. We found that annual NDVI increased by 17.58% in the YNR from 1999 to 2013, especially in regions dominated by broad-leaved and coniferous forests at lower elevations. The vegetation greening rate decreased significantly as elevation increased, with a threshold elevation of approximately 3000 m. Rising temperature played a dominant role in driving the increase in NDVI, while precipitation has no statistical relationship with changes in NDVI in this region. This study provides useful information to develop an integrated management and conservation plan for climate change adaptation and promote biodiversity conservation in the YNR.

Insecticide-driven patterns of genetic variation in the dengue vector Aedes aegypti in Martinique Island.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sébastien Marcombe

Full Text Available Effective vector control is currently challenged worldwide by the evolution of resistance to all classes of chemical insecticides in mosquitoes. In Martinique, populations of the dengue vector Aedes aegypti have been intensively treated with temephos and deltamethrin insecticides over the last fifty years, resulting in heterogeneous levels of resistance across the island. Resistance spreading depends on standing genetic variation, selection intensity and gene flow among populations. To determine gene flow intensity, we first investigated neutral patterns of genetic variability in sixteen populations representative of the many environments found in Martinique and experiencing various levels of insecticide pressure, using 6 microsatellites. Allelic richness was lower in populations resistant to deltamethrin, and consanguinity was higher in populations resistant to temephos, consistent with a negative effect of insecticide pressure on neutral genetic diversity. The global genetic differentiation was low, suggesting high gene flow among populations, but significant structure was found, with a pattern of isolation-by-distance at the global scale. Then, we investigated adaptive patterns of divergence in six out of the 16 populations using 319 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs. Five SNP outliers displaying levels of genetic differentiation out of neutral expectations were detected, including the kdr-V1016I mutation in the voltage-gated sodium channel gene. Association tests revealed a total of seven SNPs associated with deltamethrin resistance. Six other SNPs were associated with temephos resistance, including two non-synonymous substitutions in an alkaline phosphatase and in a sulfotransferase respectively. Altogether, both neutral and adaptive patterns of genetic variation in mosquito populations appear to be largely driven by insecticide pressure in Martinique.

Three-pattern decomposition of global atmospheric circulation: part II—dynamical equations of horizontal, meridional and zonal circulations

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Shujuan; Cheng, Jianbo; Xu, Ming; Chou, Jifan

2018-04-01

The three-pattern decomposition of global atmospheric circulation (TPDGAC) partitions three-dimensional (3D) atmospheric circulation into horizontal, meridional and zonal components to study the 3D structures of global atmospheric circulation. This paper incorporates the three-pattern decomposition model (TPDM) into primitive equations of atmospheric dynamics and establishes a new set of dynamical equations of the horizontal, meridional and zonal circulations in which the operator properties are studied and energy conservation laws are preserved, as in the primitive equations. The physical significance of the newly established equations is demonstrated. Our findings reveal that the new equations are essentially the 3D vorticity equations of atmosphere and that the time evolution rules of the horizontal, meridional and zonal circulations can be described from the perspective of 3D vorticity evolution. The new set of dynamical equations includes decomposed expressions that can be used to explore the source terms of large-scale atmospheric circulation variations. A simplified model is presented to demonstrate the potential applications of the new equations for studying the dynamics of the Rossby, Hadley and Walker circulations. The model shows that the horizontal air temperature anomaly gradient (ATAG) induces changes in meridional and zonal circulations and promotes the baroclinic evolution of the horizontal circulation. The simplified model also indicates that the absolute vorticity of the horizontal circulation is not conserved, and its changes can be described by changes in the vertical vorticities of the meridional and zonal circulations. Moreover, the thermodynamic equation shows that the induced meridional and zonal circulations and advection transport by the horizontal circulation in turn cause a redistribution of the air temperature. The simplified model reveals the fundamental rules between the evolution of the air temperature and the horizontal, meridional

Global variation in elevational diversity patterns

Science.gov (United States)

Qinfeng Guo; Douglas A. Kelt; Zhongyu Sun; Hongxiao Liu; Liangjun Hu; Hai Ren; Jun We

2013-01-01

While horizontal gradients of biodiversity have been examined extensively in the past, vertical diversity gradients (elevation, water depth) are attracting increasing attention. We compiled data from 443 elevational gradients involving diverse organisms worldwide to investigate how elevational diversity patterns may vary between the Northern and Southern hemispheres...

Impact of the Internet on Globalization : Industrial Internet

OpenAIRE

Jukics, Márk

2016-01-01

The thesis consists of two main parts. The first part is the theoretical framework, the second part is about assisting in a project of Centria University of Applied Sciences. The theoretical part of the thesis expounds the evolution and the benefits of the industrial internet. It explains the roots of globalization, internet, and industries. Lean manufacturing and management is also involved in the theory, as this way of management is successfully spreading by the help of globalization. I...

Essays on globalization, monetary policy and financial crisis'

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Qian, Z.

2012-01-01

This thesis focuses on three interlinked topics. Chapter 2 studies the determinants of sovereign CDS spreads in Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain during the recent global financial crisis and European debt crisis. Chapter 3 introduces a model on the interactions between monetary policy

Global patterns in lake ecosystem responses to warming based on the temperature dependence of metabolism.

Science.gov (United States)

Kraemer, Benjamin M; Chandra, Sudeep; Dell, Anthony I; Dix, Margaret; Kuusisto, Esko; Livingstone, David M; Schladow, S Geoffrey; Silow, Eugene; Sitoki, Lewis M; Tamatamah, Rashid; McIntyre, Peter B

2017-05-01

Climate warming is expected to have large effects on ecosystems in part due to the temperature dependence of metabolism. The responses of metabolic rates to climate warming may be greatest in the tropics and at low elevations because mean temperatures are warmer there and metabolic rates respond exponentially to temperature (with exponents >1). However, if warming rates are sufficiently fast in higher latitude/elevation lakes, metabolic rate responses to warming may still be greater there even though metabolic rates respond exponentially to temperature. Thus, a wide range of global patterns in the magnitude of metabolic rate responses to warming could emerge depending on global patterns of temperature and warming rates. Here we use the Boltzmann-Arrhenius equation, published estimates of activation energy, and time series of temperature from 271 lakes to estimate long-term (1970-2010) changes in 64 metabolic processes in lakes. The estimated responses of metabolic processes to warming were usually greatest in tropical/low-elevation lakes even though surface temperatures in higher latitude/elevation lakes are warming faster. However, when the thermal sensitivity of a metabolic process is especially weak, higher latitude/elevation lakes had larger responses to warming in parallel with warming rates. Our results show that the sensitivity of a given response to temperature (as described by its activation energy) provides a simple heuristic for predicting whether tropical/low-elevation lakes will have larger or smaller metabolic responses to warming than higher latitude/elevation lakes. Overall, we conclude that the direct metabolic consequences of lake warming are likely to be felt most strongly at low latitudes and low elevations where metabolism-linked ecosystem services may be most affected. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Emergence and spreading potential of Zika virus

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alvaro Fajardo

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Zika virus (ZIKV is an arthropod-borne Flavivirus (family Flaviviridae closely related to dengue, yellow fever and West Nile viruses. ZIKV remained neglected, confined to enzootic transmission cycles in Africa and Asia, until the first significant outbreak was reported in Micronesia in 2007. Subsequent epidemics of growing incidence occurred in French Polynesia and other South Pacific Islands, and recently, in the Americas. The latter and currently ongoing outbreak of unprecedented incidence revealed the association of ZIKV infection with the occurrence of severe congenital malformations and neurological diseases, leading to a widespread concern about its potential to pose a global public health threat. Serological and molecular data suggest that the genetic and geographic diversification of ZIKV may be greatly underestimated. Here we discuss several ecological and epidemiological aspects, together with the evolutionary processes that may have driven the emergence and abrupt spread of ZIKV in the Americas.

Microbial Community Structure of Deep-sea Hydrothermal Vents on the Ultraslow Spreading Southwest Indian Ridge

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jian Ding

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Southwest Indian Ridge (SWIR is a typical oceanic ultraslow spreading ridge with intensive hydrothermal activities. The microbial communities in hydrothermal fields including primary producers to support the entire ecosystem by utilizing geochemical energy generated from rock-seawater interactions. Here we have examined the microbial community structures on four hydrothermal vents from SWIR, representing distinct characteristics in terms of temperature, pH and metal compositions, by using Illumina sequencing of the 16S small subunit ribosomal RNA (rRNA genes, to correlate bacterial and archaeal populations with the nature of the vents influenced by ultraslow spreading features. Epsilon-, Gamma-, Alpha-, and Deltaproteobacteria and members of the phylum Bacteroidetes and Planctomycetes, as well as Thaumarchaeota, Woesearchaeota, and Euryarchaeota were dominant in all the samples. Both bacterial and archaeal community structures showed distinguished patterns compared to those in the fast-spreading East Pacific Ridge or the slow-spreading Mid-Atlantic Ridge as previously reported. Furthermore, within SWIR, the microbial communities are highly correlated with the local temperatures. For example, the sulfur-oxidizing bacteria were dominant within bacteria from low-temperature vents, but were not represented as the dominating group recovered from high temperature (over 300°C venting chimneys in SWIR. Meanwhile, Thaumarchaeota, the ammonium oxidizing archaea, only showed high relative abundance of amplicons in the vents with high-temperature in SWIR. These findings provide insights on the microbial community in ultraslow spreading hydrothermal fields, and therefore assist us in the understanding of geochemical cycling therein.

Experiments on non-isothermal spreading

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ehrhard, P.

1992-09-01

Experiments are performed on axisymmetric spreading of viscous drops on glass plates. Two liquids are investigated: silicone oil (M-100) spreads to 'infinity' and paraffin oil spreads to a finite-radius steady state. The experiments with silicone oil partly recover the behaviour of previous workers data; those experiments with paraffin oil provide new data. It is found that gravitational forces dominate at long enough times while at shorter times capillary forces dominate. When the plate is heated or cooled with respect to the ambient gas, thermocapillary forces generate flows that alter the spreading dynamics. Heating (cooling) the plate is found to retard (augment) the streading. Moreover, in case of partial wetting, the finally-approached drop radius is smaller (larger) for a heated (cooled) plate. These data are all new. All these observations are in excellent quantitative agreement with the related model predictions of Ehrhard and Davis (1991). A breakdown of the axisymmetric character of the flow is observed only for very long times and/or very thin liquid layers. (orig.) [de

Heat transfer and fire spread

Science.gov (United States)

Hal E. Anderson

1969-01-01

Experimental testing of a mathematical model showed that radiant heat transfer accounted for no more than 40% of total heat flux required to maintain rate of spread. A reasonable prediction of spread was possible by assuming a horizontal convective heat transfer coefficient when certain fuel and flame characteristics were known. Fuel particle size had a linear relation...

Energy Spread Sources in TESLA and TTF

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mosnier, A.; Tessier, J.M.

1995-03-01

The beam energy spread in the TESLA linac must be small enough to limit the emittance dilution due to the dispersive effects. This report summarizes the major sources of energy spread both for the TESLA linac and the TTF linac, where these estimations will be carefully checked with beam experiments. The first part recalls the intra-bunch energy spread while the second part looks into the bunch-to-bunch energy spread induced by rf field fluctuations within the bunch train and from pulse-to-pulse. (author). 3 refs., 4 figs

Linking Global Patterns of Nitrogen Resorption with Nitrogen Mineralization During Litter Decomposition

Science.gov (United States)

Deng, M.; Liu, L.; Jiang, L.

2017-12-01

The nitrogen (N) cycle in terrestrial ecosystems is strongly influenced by resorption prior to litter fall and by mineralization after litter fall. Although both resorption and mineralization make N available to plants and are influenced by climate, their linkage in a changing environment remains largely unknown. Here, we show that, at the global scale, increasing N resorption efficiency has a negative effect on the N mineralization rate. With increasing temperature and precipitation, the increasing rate of the N cycle is closely related to the shift from the more conservative resorption pathway to an acquiring mineralization pathway. Furthermore, systems with faster N-cycle rates support plants with higher foliar N:P ratios and microbes with lower fungi:bacteria ratios. We highlight the importance of considering the geographic pattern and the dynamic interaction between N resorption and N mineralization, which should be incorporated into earth-system models to improve the simulation of nutrient constraints on ecosystem productivity.

Economic growth, urbanization, globalization, and the risks of emerging infectious diseases in China: A review.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Tong; Perrings, Charles; Kinzig, Ann; Collins, James P; Minteer, Ben A; Daszak, Peter

2017-02-01

Three interrelated world trends may be exacerbating emerging zoonotic risks: income growth, urbanization, and globalization. Income growth is associated with rising animal protein consumption in developing countries, which increases the conversion of wild lands to livestock production, and hence the probability of zoonotic emergence. Urbanization implies the greater concentration and connectedness of people, which increases the speed at which new infections are spread. Globalization-the closer integration of the world economy-has facilitated pathogen spread among countries through the growth of trade and travel. High-risk areas for the emergence and spread of infectious disease are where these three trends intersect with predisposing socioecological conditions including the presence of wild disease reservoirs, agricultural practices that increase contact between wildlife and livestock, and cultural practices that increase contact between humans, wildlife, and livestock. Such an intersection occurs in China, which has been a "cradle" of zoonoses from the Black Death to avian influenza and SARS. Disease management in China is thus critical to the mitigation of global zoonotic risks.

Coding-Spreading Tradeoff in CDMA Systems

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Bolas, Eduardo

2002-01-01

.... Comparing different combinations of coding and spreading with a traditional DS-CDMA, as defined in the IS-95 standard, allows the criteria to be defined for the best coding-spreading tradeoff in CDMA systems...

A first look at the SAPFLUXNET database: global patterns in whole-plant transpiration and implications for ecohydrological research

Science.gov (United States)

Poyatos, R.; Granda, V.; Mencuccini, M.; Flo, V.; Oren, R.; Molowny-Horas, R.; Katul, G. G.; Mahecha, M. D.; Steppe, K.; Cabon, A.; De Cáceres, M.; Martínez-Vilalta, J.

2017-12-01

Plant transpiration is the fundamental process linking water and vegetation and it is therefore a central topic in ecohydrological research. Globally, plants display a huge variety of coordinated adjustments in their physiology and structure to regulate transpiration in response to fluctuations of water demand and supply at multiple temporal scales. Sap flow measured in plant stems reveals the temporal patterns of these responses but sap flow data have remained fragmentary and generally unavailable for syntheses of regional to global scope. Here we present the first global database of sap flow measurements from individual plants (SAPFLUXNET, http://sapfluxnet.creaf.cat/), which has been compiled from > 150 datasets contributed by researchers worldwide. Received datasets were harmonised and conveniently stored in custom-designed R objects holding sap flow and environmental data time series, together with several ancillary metadata, enabling data access for synthesis activities. SAPFLUXNET covers most vegetated biomes and holds data for > 1500 individual plants, mostly trees, belonging to >100 species and > 50 genera. We retrieved water use traits indicative of maximum transpiration rates and of transpiration sensitivity to vapour pressure deficit using quantile regression approaches and moving window analyses. Global patterns of these water use traits were then analysed as a function of climate, plant functional type and stand characteristics. For example, maximum transpiration rates at a given plant diameter or sapwood area tended to be higher for Angiosperms compared to Gymnosperms, but this relationships converged to a more similar scaling between transpiration and leaf area across these groups. SAPFLUXNET is also a valuable tool to evaluate water balance components in ecosystem models. We combined SAPFLUXNET data with the MEDFATE model (https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/medfate/index.html) to validate an ecohydrological optimisation approach to retrieve

Deterministic ripple-spreading model for complex networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Xiao-Bing; Wang, Ming; Leeson, Mark S; Hines, Evor L; Di Paolo, Ezequiel

2011-04-01

This paper proposes a deterministic complex network model, which is inspired by the natural ripple-spreading phenomenon. The motivations and main advantages of the model are the following: (i) The establishment of many real-world networks is a dynamic process, where it is often observed that the influence of a few local events spreads out through nodes, and then largely determines the final network topology. Obviously, this dynamic process involves many spatial and temporal factors. By simulating the natural ripple-spreading process, this paper reports a very natural way to set up a spatial and temporal model for such complex networks. (ii) Existing relevant network models are all stochastic models, i.e., with a given input, they cannot output a unique topology. Differently, the proposed ripple-spreading model can uniquely determine the final network topology, and at the same time, the stochastic feature of complex networks is captured by randomly initializing ripple-spreading related parameters. (iii) The proposed model can use an easily manageable number of ripple-spreading related parameters to precisely describe a network topology, which is more memory efficient when compared with traditional adjacency matrix or similar memory-expensive data structures. (iv) The ripple-spreading model has a very good potential for both extensions and applications.

Rapid Spread of Zika Virus in The Americas--Implications for Public Health Preparedness for Mass Gatherings at the 2016 Brazil Olympic Games.

Science.gov (United States)

Petersen, Eskild; Wilson, Mary E; Touch, Sok; McCloskey, Brian; Mwaba, Peter; Bates, Matthew; Dar, Osman; Mattes, Frank; Kidd, Mike; Ippolito, Giuseppe; Azhar, Esam I; Zumla, Alimuddin

2016-03-01

Mass gatherings at major international sporting events put millions of international travelers and local host-country residents at risk of acquiring infectious diseases, including locally endemic infectious diseases. The mosquito-borne Zika virus (ZIKV) has recently aroused global attention due to its rapid spread since its first detection in May 2015 in Brazil to 22 other countries and other territories in the Americas. The ZIKV outbreak in Brazil, has also been associated with a significant rise in the number of babies born with microcephaly and neurological disorders, and has been declared a 'Global Emergency by the World Health Organization. This explosive spread of ZIKV in Brazil poses challenges for public health preparedness and surveillance for the Olympics and Paralympics which are due to be held in Rio De Janeiro in August, 2016. We review the epidemiology and clinical features of the current ZIKV outbreak in Brazil, highlight knowledge gaps, and review the public health implications of the current ZIKV outbreak in the Americas. We highlight the urgent need for a coordinated collaborative response for prevention and spread of infectious diseases with epidemic potential at mass gatherings events. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Dynamics of Ionic Shifts in Cortical Spreading Depression.

Science.gov (United States)

Enger, Rune; Tang, Wannan; Vindedal, Gry Fluge; Jensen, Vidar; Johannes Helm, P; Sprengel, Rolf; Looger, Loren L; Nagelhus, Erlend A

2015-11-01

Cortical spreading depression is a slowly propagating wave of near-complete depolarization of brain cells followed by temporary suppression of neuronal activity. Accumulating evidence indicates that cortical spreading depression underlies the migraine aura and that similar waves promote tissue damage in stroke, trauma, and hemorrhage. Cortical spreading depression is characterized by neuronal swelling, profound elevation of extracellular potassium and glutamate, multiphasic blood flow changes, and drop in tissue oxygen tension. The slow speed of the cortical spreading depression wave implies that it is mediated by diffusion of a chemical substance, yet the identity of this substance and the pathway it follows are unknown. Intercellular spread between gap junction-coupled neurons or glial cells and interstitial diffusion of K(+) or glutamate have been proposed. Here we use extracellular direct current potential recordings, K(+)-sensitive microelectrodes, and 2-photon imaging with ultrasensitive Ca(2+) and glutamate fluorescent probes to elucidate the spatiotemporal dynamics of ionic shifts associated with the propagation of cortical spreading depression in the visual cortex of adult living mice. Our data argue against intercellular spread of Ca(2+) carrying the cortical spreading depression wavefront and are in favor of interstitial K(+) diffusion, rather than glutamate diffusion, as the leading event in cortical spreading depression. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press.

Global patterns of city size distributions and their fundamental drivers.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ethan H Decker

2007-09-01

Full Text Available Urban areas and their voracious appetites are increasingly dominating the flows of energy and materials around the globe. Understanding the size distribution and dynamics of urban areas is vital if we are to manage their growth and mitigate their negative impacts on global ecosystems. For over 50 years, city size distributions have been assumed to universally follow a power function, and many theories have been put forth to explain what has become known as Zipf's law (the instance where the exponent of the power function equals unity. Most previous studies, however, only include the largest cities that comprise the tail of the distribution. Here we show that national, regional and continental city size distributions, whether based on census data or inferred from cluster areas of remotely-sensed nighttime lights, are in fact lognormally distributed through the majority of cities and only approach power functions for the largest cities in the distribution tails. To explore generating processes, we use a simple model incorporating only two basic human dynamics, migration and reproduction, that nonetheless generates distributions very similar to those found empirically. Our results suggest that macroscopic patterns of human settlements may be far more constrained by fundamental ecological principles than more fine-scale socioeconomic factors.

Resource Allocation with Adaptive Spread Spectrum OFDM Using 2D Spreading for Power Line Communications

Science.gov (United States)

Baudais, Jean-Yves; Crussière, Matthieu

2007-12-01

Bit-loading techniques based on orthogonal frequency division mutiplexing (OFDM) are frequently used over wireline channels. In the power line context, channel state information can reasonably be obtained at both transmitter and receiver sides, and adaptive loading can advantageously be carried out. In this paper, we propose to apply loading principles to an spread spectrum OFDM (SS-OFDM) waveform which is a multicarrier system using 2D spreading in the time and frequency domains. The presented algorithm handles the subcarriers, spreading codes, bits and energies assignment in order to maximize the data rate and the range of the communication system. The optimization is realized at a target symbol error rate and under spectral mask constraint as usually imposed. The analytical study shows that the merging principle realized by the spreading code improves the rate and the range of the discrete multitone (DMT) system in single and multiuser contexts. Simulations have been run over measured power line communication (PLC) channel responses and highlight that the proposed system is all the more interesting than the received signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is low.

Spread and Liquidity Issues: A markets comparison

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Strašek Sebastjan

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The financial crises are closely connected with spread changes and liquidity issues. After defining and addressing spread considerations, we research in this paper the topic of liquidity issues in times of economic crisis. We analyse the liquidity effects as recorded on spreads of securities from different markets. We stipulate that higher international risk aversion in times of financial crises coincides with widening security spreads. The paper then introduces liquidity as a risk factor into the standard value-at-risk framework, using GARCH methodology. The comparison of results of these models suggests that the size of the tested markets does not have a strong effect on the models. Thus, we find that spread analysis is an appropriate tool for analysing liquidity issues during a financial crisis.

Focus: global currents in national histories of science: the "global turn" and the history of science in Latin America.

Science.gov (United States)

McCook, Stuart

2013-12-01

The "global turn" in the history of science offers new ways to think about how to do national and regional histories of science, in this case the history of science in Latin America. For example, it questions structuralist and diffusionist models of the spread of science and shows the often active role that people in Latin America (and the rest of the Global South) played in the construction of "universal" scientific knowledge. It suggests that even national or regional histories of science must be situated in a global context; all too often, such histories have treated global processes as a distant backdrop. At the same time, historians need to pay constant attention to the role of power in the construction of scientific knowledge. Finally, this essay highlights a methodological tool for writing globally inflected histories of science: the method of "following".

Global science: the eruption of Krakatau.

Science.gov (United States)

Dörries, Matthias

2003-01-01

The eruption of the volcano Krakatau in the Netherlands East Indies (Indonesia) in 1883 had worldwide impact. This was perceived in the three quite different types of global propagation that occurred after the eruption: a rapid pressure wave, noticeable only to measuring instruments, followed a few hours later by the spread of the news of the event, succeeded by a slowly expanding optical phenomenon that lasted for a couple of years. Krakatau was the first natural catastrophe of global magnitude that was almost immediately recognized as such throughout the world, largely thanks to the recently installed worldwide telegraphic network.

Diurnal global variability of the Earth's magnetic field during geomagnetically quiet conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Klausner, V.

2012-12-01

This work proposes a methodology (or treatment) to establish a representative signal of the global magnetic diurnal variation. It is based on a spatial distribution in both longitude and latitude of a set of magnetic stations as well as their magnetic behavior on a time basis. We apply the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) technique using gapped wavelet transform and wavelet correlation. This new approach was used to describe the characteristics of the magnetic variations at Vassouras (Brazil) and 12 other magnetic stations spread around the terrestrial globe. Using magnetograms from 2007, we have investigated the global dominant pattern of the Sq variation as a function of low solar activity. This year was divided into two seasons for seasonal variation analysis: solstices (June and December) and equinoxes (March and September). We aim to reconstruct the original geomagnetic data series of the H component taking into account only the diurnal variations with periods of 24 hours on geomagnetically quiet days. We advance a proposal to reconstruct the Sq baseline using only the PCA first mode. The first interpretation of the results suggests that PCA/wavelet method could be used to the reconstruction of the Sq baseline.

Global temporal patterns of pancreatic cancer and association with socioeconomic development.

Science.gov (United States)

Wong, Martin C S; Jiang, Johnny Y; Liang, Miaoyin; Fang, Yuan; Yeung, Ming Sze; Sung, Joseph J Y

2017-06-09

Pancreatic cancer induces a substantial global burden. We examined its global incidence/mortality rates and their correlation with socioeconomic development (Human Development Index [HDI] and Gross Domestic Product [GDP] in 2000 as proxy measures). Data on age-standardized incidence/mortality rates in 2012 were retrieved from the GLOBOCAN database. Temporal patterns in 1998-2007 were assessed for 39 countries according to gender. The Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) of the incidence/mortality trends was evaluated using joinpoint regression analysis. The age-standardized incidence ranged between 0.8-8.9/100,000. When compared among countries, Brazil (AAPC = 10.4, 95%C.I. = 0.8,21) and France (AAPC = 4.7, 95%C.I. = 3.6,5.9) reported the highest incidence rise in men. The greatest increase in women was reported in Thailand (AAPC = 7, 95%C.I. = 2.1,12.1) and Ecuador (AAPC = 4.3, 95%C.I. = 1.3,7.3). For mortality, the Philippines (APCC = 4.3, 95%C.I. = 2,6.6) and Croatia (AAPC = 2, 95% C.I. = 0,3.9) reported the biggest increase among men. The Philippines (AAPC = 5.8, 95% C.I. 4.5,7.2) and Slovakia (AAPC = 3.1, 95% C.I. 0.9,5.3) showed the most prominent rise among women. Its incidence was positively correlated with HDI (men: r = 0.66; women: r = 0.70) and GDP (men: r = 0.29; women: r = 0.28, all p GDP]). In summary, the incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer were rising in many countries, requiring regular surveillance.

Evaluating the links between climate, disease spread, and amphibian declines.

Science.gov (United States)

Rohr, Jason R; Raffel, Thomas R; Romansic, John M; McCallum, Hamish; Hudson, Peter J

2008-11-11

Human alteration of the environment has arguably propelled the Earth into its sixth mass extinction event and amphibians, the most threatened of all vertebrate taxa, are at the forefront. Many of the worldwide amphibian declines have been caused by the chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), and two contrasting hypotheses have been proposed to explain these declines. Positive correlations between global warming and Bd-related declines sparked the chytrid-thermal-optimum hypothesis, which proposes that global warming increased cloud cover in warm years that drove the convergence of daytime and nighttime temperatures toward the thermal optimum for Bd growth. In contrast, the spatiotemporal-spread hypothesis states that Bd-related declines are caused by the introduction and spread of Bd, independent of climate change. We provide a rigorous test of these hypotheses by evaluating (i) whether cloud cover, temperature convergence, and predicted temperature-dependent Bd growth are significant positive predictors of amphibian extinctions in the genus Atelopus and (ii) whether spatial structure in the timing of these extinctions can be detected without making assumptions about the location, timing, or number of Bd emergences. We show that there is spatial structure to the timing of Atelopus spp. extinctions but that the cause of this structure remains equivocal, emphasizing the need for further molecular characterization of Bd. We also show that the reported positive multi-decade correlation between Atelopus spp. extinctions and mean tropical air temperature in the previous year is indeed robust, but the evidence that it is causal is weak because numerous other variables, including regional banana and beer production, were better predictors of these extinctions. Finally, almost all of our findings were opposite to the predictions of the chytrid-thermal-optimum hypothesis. Although climate change is likely to play an important role in worldwide amphibian declines

Topology dependent epidemic spreading velocity in weighted networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duan, Wei; Qiu, Xiaogang; Quax, Rick; Lees, Michael; Sloot, Peter M A

2014-01-01

Many diffusive processes occur on structured networks with weighted links, such as disease spread by airplane transport or information diffusion in social networks or blogs. Understanding the impact of weight-connectivity correlations on epidemic spreading in weighted networks is crucial to support decision-making on disease control and other diffusive processes. However, a real understanding of epidemic spreading velocity in weighted networks is still lacking. Here we conduct a numerical study of the velocity of a Reed–Frost epidemic spreading process in various weighted network topologies as a function of the correlations between edge weights and node degrees. We find that a positive weight-connectivity correlation leads to a faster epidemic spreading compared to an unweighted network. In contrast, we find that both uncorrelated and negatively correlated weight distributions lead to slower spreading processes. In the case of positive weight-connectivity correlations, the acceleration of spreading velocity is weak when the heterogeneity of weight distribution increases. (paper)

FACTORS INFLUENCING YIELD SPREADS OF THE MALAYSIAN BONDS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Norliza Ahmad

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Malaysian bond market is developing rapidly but not much is understood in terms of macroeconomic factors that could influence the yield spread of the Ringgit Malaysian denominated bonds. Based on a multifactor model, this paper examines the impact of four macroeconomic factors namely: Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI, Industry Production Index (IPI, Consumer Price Index (CPI and interest rates (IR on bond yield spread of the Malaysian Government Securities (MGS and Corporate Bonds (CBs for a period from January 2001 to December 2008. The findings support the expected hypotheses that CPI and IR are the major drivers that influence the changes in MGS yield spreads. However IPI and KLCI have weak and no influence on MGS yield spreads respectively Whilst IR, CPI and IPI have significant influence on the yield spreads of CB1, CB2 and CB3, KLCI has significant influence only on the CB1 yield spread but not on CB2 and CB3 yield spreads.

Explaining the luminosity spread in young clusters: proto and pre-main sequence stellar evolution in a molecular cloud environment

Science.gov (United States)

Jensen, Sigurd S.; Haugbølle, Troels

2018-02-01

Hertzsprung-Russell diagrams of star-forming regions show a large luminosity spread. This is incompatible with well-defined isochrones based on classic non-accreting protostellar evolution models. Protostars do not evolve in isolation of their environment, but grow through accretion of gas. In addition, while an age can be defined for a star-forming region, the ages of individual stars in the region will vary. We show how the combined effect of a protostellar age spread, a consequence of sustained star formation in the molecular cloud, and time-varying protostellar accretion for individual protostars can explain the observed luminosity spread. We use a global magnetohydrodynamic simulation including a sub-scale sink particle model of a star-forming region to follow the accretion process of each star. The accretion profiles are used to compute stellar evolution models for each star, incorporating a model of how the accretion energy is distributed to the disc, radiated away at the accretion shock, or incorporated into the outer layers of the protostar. Using a modelled cluster age of 5 Myr, we naturally reproduce the luminosity spread and find good agreement with observations of the Collinder 69 cluster, and the Orion Nebular Cluster. It is shown how stars in binary and multiple systems can be externally forced creating recurrent episodic accretion events. We find that in a realistic global molecular cloud model massive stars build up mass over relatively long time-scales. This leads to an important conceptual change compared to the classic picture of non-accreting stellar evolution segmented into low-mass Hayashi tracks and high-mass Henyey tracks.

A network model for Ebola spreading.

Science.gov (United States)

Rizzo, Alessandro; Pedalino, Biagio; Porfiri, Maurizio

2016-04-07

The availability of accurate models for the spreading of infectious diseases has opened a new era in management and containment of epidemics. Models are extensively used to plan for and execute vaccination campaigns, to evaluate the risk of international spreadings and the feasibility of travel bans, and to inform prophylaxis campaigns. Even when no specific therapeutical protocol is available, as for the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD), models of epidemic spreading can provide useful insight to steer interventions in the field and to forecast the trend of the epidemic. Here, we propose a novel mathematical model to describe EVD spreading based on activity driven networks (ADNs). Our approach overcomes the simplifying assumption of homogeneous mixing, which is central to most of the mathematically tractable models of EVD spreading. In our ADN-based model, each individual is not bound to contact every other, and its network of contacts varies in time as a function of an activity potential. Our model contemplates the possibility of non-ideal and time-varying intervention policies, which are critical to accurately describe EVD spreading in afflicted countries. The model is calibrated from field data of the 2014 April-to-December spreading in Liberia. We use the model as a predictive tool, to emulate the dynamics of EVD in Liberia and offer a one-year projection, until December 2015. Our predictions agree with the current vision expressed by professionals in the field, who consider EVD in Liberia at its final stage. The model is also used to perform a what-if analysis to assess the efficacy of timely intervention policies. In particular, we show that an earlier application of the same intervention policy would have greatly reduced the number of EVD cases, the duration of the outbreak, and the infrastructures needed for the implementation of the intervention. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Ren, Guangming; Wang, Xingyuan

2014-06-01

The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold qc. The epidemic will survive when q > qc and die when q epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure.

Post-Tanner spreading of nematic droplets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mechkov, S; Oshanin, G; Cazabat, A M

2009-01-01

The quasistationary spreading of a circular liquid drop on a solid substrate typically obeys the so-called Tanner law, with the instantaneous base radius R(t) growing with time as R∼t 1/10 -an effect of the dominant role of capillary forces for a small-sized droplet. However, for droplets of nematic liquid crystals, a faster spreading law sets in at long times, so that R∼t α with α significantly larger than the Tanner exponent 1/10. In the framework of the thin film model (or lubrication approximation), we describe this 'acceleration' as a transition to a qualitatively different spreading regime driven by a strong substrate-liquid interaction specific to nematics (antagonistic anchoring at the interfaces). The numerical solution of the thin film equation agrees well with the available experimental data for nematics, even though the non-Newtonian rheology has yet to be taken into account. Thus we complement the theory of spreading with a post-Tanner stage, noting that the spreading process can be expected to cross over from the usual capillarity-dominated stage to a regime where the whole reservoir becomes a diffusive film in the sense of Derjaguin.

Ideas and institutions in global governance - the case of microcredit

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Aagaard, Peter

There is a growing demand for effective strategic problem solving in relation to a wide array of global policy problems such as AIDS, poverty, global warming, etc. This makes the introduction of new policy ideas for institutional change increasingly important in global governance. But researchers...... need a new approach in order to better grasp the complexity in global problem solving. We need to know more about how ideas emerge, spread and transform in a complex, networked global environment. New literature on institutional dynamics can inform the literature on global governance networks......, especially when it comes to the meta-governance of global networks. Based on a case study of microcredit and its emergence as a policy idea in development policy, the paper will illustrate the use of institutional dynamic conceptualisation in global governance....

A Role for Human Skin Mast Cells in Dengue Virus Infection and Systemic Spread.

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Troupin, Andrea; Shirley, Devon; Londono-Renteria, Berlin; Watson, Alan M; McHale, Cody; Hall, Alex; Hartstone-Rose, Adam; Klimstra, William B; Gomez, Gregorio; Colpitts, Tonya M

2016-12-01

Dengue virus (DENV) is a mosquito-borne flavivirus that causes serious global human disease and mortality. Skin immune cells are an important component of initial DENV infection and systemic spread. Here, we show that mast cells are a target of DENV in human skin and that DENV infection of skin mast cells induces degranulation and alters cytokine and growth factor expression profiles. Importantly, to our knowledge, we also demonstrate for the first time that DENV localizes within secretory granules in infected skin mast cells. In addition, DENV within extracellular granules was infectious in vitro and in vivo, trafficking through lymph to draining lymph nodes in mice. We demonstrate an important role for human skin mast cells in DENV infection and identify a novel mechanism for systemic spread of DENV infection from the initial peripheral mosquito injection site. Copyright © 2016 by The American Association of Immunologists, Inc.

Leachate pollution management to overcome global climate change impact in Piyungan Landfill, Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Harjito; Suntoro; Gunawan, T.; Maskuri, M.

2018-03-01

Environmental problems associated with the landfill system are generated by domestic waste landfills, especially those with open dumping systems. In these systems, waste degrades and produces some gases, namely methane gas (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2), which can cause global climate change. This research aimed at identifying the areas that experience groundwater pollution and the spread pattern of leachate movement to the vicinity as well as to develop a leachate management model. The Electricity Resistivity Tomography (ERT) survey is deployed to assess the distribution of electrical resistivity in the polluted areas. In this study, the groundwater contamination is at a very low in the aquifer zone, i.e., 3-9 Ωm. It is caused by the downward migration of leachate to water table that raises the ion concentration of groundwater. These ions will increase the electrical conductivity (EC), i.e., up to 1,284 μmhos/cm, and decrease the electrical resistivity. The leachate spreads westward and northward at a depth of 6-17 m (aquifer) with a thickness of pollution between 4 and11 m.The recommended landfill management model involves the installation of rainwater drainage, use of cover and baseliner made of waterproof materials, and massive waste treatment.

Spreading dynamics in complex networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pei, Sen; Makse, Hernán A

2013-01-01

Searching for influential spreaders in complex networks is an issue of great significance for applications across various domains, ranging from epidemic control, innovation diffusion, viral marketing, and social movement to idea propagation. In this paper, we first display some of the most important theoretical models that describe spreading processes, and then discuss the problem of locating both the individual and multiple influential spreaders respectively. Recent approaches in these two topics are presented. For the identification of privileged single spreaders, we summarize several widely used centralities, such as degree, betweenness centrality, PageRank, k-shell, etc. We investigate the empirical diffusion data in a large scale online social community—LiveJournal. With this extensive dataset, we find that various measures can convey very distinct information of nodes. Of all the users in the LiveJournal social network, only a small fraction of them are involved in spreading. For the spreading processes in LiveJournal, while degree can locate nodes participating in information diffusion with higher probability, k-shell is more effective in finding nodes with a large influence. Our results should provide useful information for designing efficient spreading strategies in reality. (paper)

Spreading dynamics in complex networks

Science.gov (United States)

Pei, Sen; Makse, Hernán A.

2013-12-01

Searching for influential spreaders in complex networks is an issue of great significance for applications across various domains, ranging from epidemic control, innovation diffusion, viral marketing, and social movement to idea propagation. In this paper, we first display some of the most important theoretical models that describe spreading processes, and then discuss the problem of locating both the individual and multiple influential spreaders respectively. Recent approaches in these two topics are presented. For the identification of privileged single spreaders, we summarize several widely used centralities, such as degree, betweenness centrality, PageRank, k-shell, etc. We investigate the empirical diffusion data in a large scale online social community—LiveJournal. With this extensive dataset, we find that various measures can convey very distinct information of nodes. Of all the users in the LiveJournal social network, only a small fraction of them are involved in spreading. For the spreading processes in LiveJournal, while degree can locate nodes participating in information diffusion with higher probability, k-shell is more effective in finding nodes with a large influence. Our results should provide useful information for designing efficient spreading strategies in reality.

Governance by Diffusion: Transnational Municipal Networks and the Spread of Local Climate Strategies in Europe

OpenAIRE

Lukas Hakelberg

2014-01-01

Cities have become crucial actors for the global governance of climate change. Their increased activity in this field is reflected by the rising number of adoptions of local climate strategies in an original sample of 274 European cities from 1992 to 2009. Using event history analysis, I find that this spread is promoted by transnational municipal networks (TMNs) successfully deploying strategies for governance by diffusion, their impact exceeding that of most alternative explanatory factors ...

The Influence of Globalization on Turkish Sports

Science.gov (United States)

Sahin, Mehmet

2018-01-01

This paper addresses the phenomenon of globalization, which has also spread to sports, in terms of its economic, social and cultural aspects; while discussing the concept based on examples from the discipline of football in the premier league of Turkey. In this framework, sports labor emigration mobility is handled, and sponsorship and the effects…

An analytical study of the improved nonlinear tolerance of DFT-spread OFDM and its unitary-spread OFDM generalization.

Science.gov (United States)

Shulkind, Gal; Nazarathy, Moshe

2012-11-05

DFT-spread (DFT-S) coherent optical OFDM was numerically and experimentally shown to provide improved nonlinear tolerance over an optically amplified dispersion uncompensated fiber link, relative to both conventional coherent OFDM and single-carrier transmission. Here we provide an analytic model rigorously accounting for this numerical result and precisely predicting the optimal bandwidth per DFT-S sub-band (or equivalently the optimal number of sub-bands per optical channel) required in order to maximize the link non-linear tolerance (NLT). The NLT advantage of DFT-S OFDM is traced to the particular statistical dependency introduced among the OFDM sub-carriers by means of the DFT spreading operation. We further extend DFT-S to a unitary-spread generalized modulation format which includes as special cases the DFT-S scheme as well as a new format which we refer to as wavelet-spread (WAV-S) OFDM, replacing the spreading DFTs by Hadamard matrices which have elements +/-1 hence are multiplier-free. The extra complexity incurred in the spreading operation is almost negligible, however the performance improvement with WAV-S relative to plain OFDM is more modest than that achieved by DFT-S, which remains the preferred format for nonlinear tolerance improvement, outperforming both plain OFDM and single-carrier schemes.

North-South precipitation patterns in western North America on interannual-to-decadal timescales

Science.gov (United States)

Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Diaz, Henry F.; Meko, D.M.

1998-01-01

The overall amount of precipitation deposited along the West Coast and western cordillera of North America from 25??to 55??N varies from year to year, and superimposed on this domain-average variability are varying north-south contrasts on timescales from at least interannual to interdecadal. In order to better understand the north-south precipitation contrasts, their interannual and decadal variations are studied in terms of how much they affect overall precipitation amounts and how they are related to large-scale climatic patterns. Spatial empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) and spatial moments (domain average, central latitude, and latitudinal spread) of zonally averaged precipitation anomalies along the westernmost parts of North America are analyzed, and each is correlated with global sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature series, on interannual (defined here as 3-7 yr) and decadal (>7 yr) timescales. The interannual band considered here corresponds to timescales that are particularly strong in tropical climate variations and thus is expected to contain much precipitation variability that is related to El Nino-Southern Oscillation; the decadal scale is defined so as to capture the whole range of long-term climatic variations affecting western North America. Zonal EOFs of the interannual and decadal filtered versions of the zonal-precipitation series are remarkably similar. At both timescales, two leading EOFs describe 1) a north-south seesaw of precipitation pivoting near 40??N and 2) variations in precipitation near 40??N, respectively. The amount of overall precipitation variability is only about 10% of the mean and is largely determined by precipitation variations around 40??-45??N and most consistently influenced by nearby circulation patterns; in this sense, domain-average precipitation is closely related to the second EOF. The central latitude and latitudinal spread of precipitation distributions are strongly influenced by precipitation

Development of a hull-less pumpkin (Cucurbita pepo L.) seed oil press-cake spread.

Science.gov (United States)

Radočaj, Olga; Dimić, Etelka; Vujasinović, Vesna

2012-09-01

A stable, oil-based spread rich in the omega-3 (ω-3) and omega-6 (ω-6) fatty acids was developed using a hull-less pumpkin seed (Cucurbita pepo L.) oil press-cake, a by-product of the pumpkin oil pressing process, along with cold-pressed hemp oil. Response surface methodology (RSM) was applied to investigate the effects of two factors, as the formulation's compositional variables: a commercial stabilizer (X(1) ) and cold-pressed hemp oil (X(2) ) added to the pumpkin seed oil press-cake in the spread formulations. A central composite, 2-factorial experimental design on 5 levels was used to optimize the spreads where model responses were ω-3 fatty acids content, spreadability (hardness), oil separation, and sensory evaluation. The selected responses were significantly affected by both variables (P spreads resembled commercial peanut butter, both in appearance, texture and spreadability; were a source of ω-3 fatty acids and with no visual oil separation after 1 mo of storage. An optimum spread was produced using 1.25% (w/w) of stabilizer and 80% of hemp oil (w/w, of the total added oil) which had 0.97 g of ω-3 fatty acids per serving size; penetration depth of 68.4 mm; oil separation of 9.2% after 3 mo of storage; and a sensory score of 17.5. A use of by-products generated from different food processing technologies, where the edible waste is successfully incorporated as a value-added ingredient, has become a very important area of research to support global sustainability efforts. This study contributes to the knowledge of a product design process for oil-based spread development, where oil press-cake, a by-product of the oil pressing process of the naked pumpkin seeds, was used and where results have demonstrated that a new product can be successfully developed and potentially manufactured as a functional food. © 2012 Institute of Food Technologists®

The workforce for health in a globalized context – global shortages and international migration

Science.gov (United States)

Aluttis, Christoph; Bishaw, Tewabech; Frank, Martina W.

2014-01-01

The ‘crisis in human resources’ in the health sector has been described as one of the most pressing global health issues of our time. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that the world faces a global shortage of almost 4.3 million doctors, midwives, nurses, and other healthcare professionals. A global undersupply of these threatens the quality and sustainability of health systems worldwide. This undersupply is concurrent with globalization and the resulting liberalization of markets, which allow health workers to offer their services in countries other than those of their origin. The opportunities of health workers to seek employment abroad has led to a complex migration pattern, characterized by a flow of health professionals from low- to high-income countries. This global migration pattern has sparked a broad international debate about the consequences for health systems worldwide, including questions about sustainability, justice, and global social accountabilities. This article provides a review of this phenomenon and gives an overview of the current scope of health workforce migration patterns. It further focuses on the scientific discourse regarding health workforce migration and its effects on both high- and low-income countries in an interdependent world. The article also reviews the internal and external factors that fuel health worker migration and illustrates how health workforce migration is a classic global health issue of our time. Accordingly, it elaborates on the international community's approach to solving the workforce crisis, focusing in particular on the WHO Code of Practice, established in 2010. PMID:24560265

Effects of local and global network connectivity on synergistic epidemics

Science.gov (United States)

Broder-Rodgers, David; Pérez-Reche, Francisco J.; Taraskin, Sergei N.

2015-12-01

Epidemics in networks can be affected by cooperation in transmission of infection and also connectivity between nodes. An interplay between these two properties and their influence on epidemic spread are addressed in the paper. A particular type of cooperative effects (called synergy effects) is considered, where the transmission rate between a pair of nodes depends on the number of infected neighbors. The connectivity effects are studied by constructing networks of different topology, starting with lattices with only local connectivity and then with networks that have both local and global connectivity obtained by random bond-rewiring to nodes within a certain distance. The susceptible-infected-removed epidemics were found to exhibit several interesting effects: (i) for epidemics with strong constructive synergy spreading in networks with high local connectivity, the bond rewiring has a negative role in epidemic spread, i.e., it reduces invasion probability; (ii) in contrast, for epidemics with destructive or weak constructive synergy spreading on networks of arbitrary local connectivity, rewiring helps epidemics to spread; (iii) and, finally, rewiring always enhances the spread of epidemics, independent of synergy, if the local connectivity is low.

Changes in yields and their variability at different levels of global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Childers, Katelin

2015-04-01

An assessment of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming is crucial to inform the political discussion about mitigation targets as well as for the inclusion of climate change impacts in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) that generally only provide global mean temperature change as an indicator of climate change. While there is a well-established framework for the scalability of regional temperature and precipitation changes with global mean temperature change we provide an assessment of the extent to which impacts such as crop yield changes can also be described in terms of global mean temperature changes without accounting for the specific underlying emissions scenario. Based on multi-crop-model simulations of the four major cereal crops (maize, rice, soy, and wheat) on a 0.5 x 0.5 degree global grid generated within ISI-MIP, we show the average spatial patterns of projected crop yield changes at one half degree warming steps. We find that emissions scenario dependence is a minor component of the overall variance of projected yield changes at different levels of global warming. Furthermore, scenario dependence can be reduced by accounting for the direct effects of CO2 fertilization in each global climate model (GCM)/impact model combination through an inclusion of the global atmospheric CO2 concentration as a second predictor. The choice of GCM output used to force the crop model simulations accounts for a slightly larger portion of the total yield variance, but the greatest contributor to variance in both global and regional crop yields and at all levels of warming, is the inter-crop-model spread. The unique multi impact model ensemble available with ISI-MIP data also indicates that the overall variability of crop yields is projected to increase in conjunction with increasing global mean temperature. This result is consistent throughout the ensemble of impact models and across many world regions. Such a hike in yield volatility could have

Spreading Culture on Quantum Entanglement and Consciousness

Science.gov (United States)

Nobili, G.; Teodorani, M.

The subject of "quantum entanglement" in general doesn't seem to be particularly considered in Europe in the form of popularizing books or of educational physics projects. These authors have started to spread out this kind of scientific culture in both forms, including popularizing seminars too. Concerning the entanglement phenomenon, recently, new thought experiments have been outlined, new laboratory results have come out in the form of real discoveries in quantum optics, new studies on "bio-entanglement" and 'global consciousness effects' have been carried out, and very sophisticated new ideas have been developed in the fields of quantum physics, biophysics, cosmology and epistemology. These authors intend to show their effort of diffusing widely this growing scientific knowledge. Beyond all this there is a long-term strategy aimed at inculcating new concepts in physics in order to trigger the interest of scholars at all levels, in that which is probably the most innovative and interdisciplinary subject of the human knowledge of this new millennium.

Resource Allocation with Adaptive Spread Spectrum OFDM Using 2D Spreading for Power Line Communications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Baudais Jean-Yves

2007-01-01

Full Text Available Bit-loading techniques based on orthogonal frequency division mutiplexing (OFDM are frequently used over wireline channels. In the power line context, channel state information can reasonably be obtained at both transmitter and receiver sides, and adaptive loading can advantageously be carried out. In this paper, we propose to apply loading principles to an spread spectrum OFDM (SS-OFDM waveform which is a multicarrier system using 2D spreading in the time and frequency domains. The presented algorithm handles the subcarriers, spreading codes, bits and energies assignment in order to maximize the data rate and the range of the communication system. The optimization is realized at a target symbol error rate and under spectral mask constraint as usually imposed. The analytical study shows that the merging principle realized by the spreading code improves the rate and the range of the discrete multitone (DMT system in single and multiuser contexts. Simulations have been run over measured power line communication (PLC channel responses and highlight that the proposed system is all the more interesting than the received signal-to-noise ratio (SNR is low.

Global bioethics – myth or reality?

Science.gov (United States)

Holm, Søren; Williams-Jones, Bryn

2006-01-01

Background There has been debate on whether a global or unified field of bioethics exists. If bioethics is a unified global field, or at the very least a closely shared way of thinking, then we should expect bioethicists to behave the same way in their academic activities anywhere in the world. This paper investigates whether there is a 'global bioethics' in the sense of a unified academic community. Methods To address this question, we study the web-linking patterns of bioethics institutions, the citation patterns of bioethics papers and the buying patterns of bioethics books. Results All three analyses indicate that there are geographical and institutional differences in the academic behavior of bioethicists and bioethics institutions. Conclusion These exploratory studies support the position that there is no unified global field of bioethics. This is a problem if the only reason is parochialism. But these regional differences are probably of less concern if one notices that bioethics comes in many not always mutually understandable dialects. PMID:16965631

Spreading dynamics of power-law fluid droplets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liang Zhanpeng; Peng Xiaofeng; Wang Xiaodong; Lee, D-J; Su Ay

2009-01-01

This paper aims at providing a summary of the theoretical models available for non-Newtonian fluid spreading dynamics. Experimental findings and model predictions for a Newtonian fluid spreading test are briefly reviewed. Then how the complete wetting and partial wetting power-law fluids spread over a solid substrate is examined. The possible extension of Newtonian fluid models to power-law fluids is also discussed.

Asymmetrically interacting spreading dynamics on complex layered networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Wei; Tang, Ming; Yang, Hui; Younghae Do; Lai, Ying-Cheng; Lee, GyuWon

2014-05-29

The spread of disease through a physical-contact network and the spread of information about the disease on a communication network are two intimately related dynamical processes. We investigate the asymmetrical interplay between the two types of spreading dynamics, each occurring on its own layer, by focusing on the two fundamental quantities underlying any spreading process: epidemic threshold and the final infection ratio. We find that an epidemic outbreak on the contact layer can induce an outbreak on the communication layer, and information spreading can effectively raise the epidemic threshold. When structural correlation exists between the two layers, the information threshold remains unchanged but the epidemic threshold can be enhanced, making the contact layer more resilient to epidemic outbreak. We develop a physical theory to understand the intricate interplay between the two types of spreading dynamics.

Information spreading in Delay Tolerant Networks based on nodes' behaviors

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Yahui; Deng, Su; Huang, Hongbin

2014-07-01

Information spreading in DTNs (Delay Tolerant Networks) adopts a store-carry-forward method, and nodes receive the message from others directly. However, it is hard to judge whether the information is safe in this communication mode. In this case, a node may observe other nodes' behaviors. At present, there is no theoretical model to describe the varying rule of the nodes' trusting level. In addition, due to the uncertainty of the connectivity in DTN, a node is hard to get the global state of the network. Therefore, a rational model about the node's trusting level should be a function of the node's own observing result. For example, if a node finds k nodes carrying a message, it may trust the information with probability p(k). This paper does not explore the real distribution of p(k), but instead presents a unifying theoretical framework to evaluate the performance of the information spreading in above case. This framework is an extension of the traditional SI (susceptible-infected) model, and is useful when p(k) conforms to any distribution. Simulations based on both synthetic and real motion traces show the accuracy of the framework. Finally, we explore the impact of the nodes' behaviors based on certain special distributions through numerical results.

The small world yields the most effective information spreading

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lü Linyuan; Chen Duanbing; Zhou Tao

2011-01-01

The spreading dynamics of information and diseases are usually analyzed by using a unified framework and analogous models. In this paper, we propose a model to emphasize the essential difference between information spreading and epidemic spreading, where the memory effects, the social reinforcement and the non-redundancy of contacts are taken into account. Under certain conditions, the information spreads faster and broader in regular networks than in random networks, which to some extent supports the recent experimental observation of spreading in online society (Centola D 2010 Science 329 1194). At the same time, the simulation result indicates that the random networks tend to be favorable for effective spreading when the network size increases. This challenges the validity of the above-mentioned experiment for large-scale systems. More importantly, we show that the spreading effectiveness can be sharply enhanced by introducing a little randomness into the regular structure, namely the small-world networks yield the most effective information spreading. This work provides insights into the role of local clustering in information spreading. (paper)

Quantifier spreading in child eye movements: A case of the Russian quantifier kazhdyj ‘every'

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Irina A. Sekerina

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Extensive cross-linguistic work has documented that children up to the age of 9–10 make errors when performing a sentence-picture verification task that pairs spoken sentences with the universal quantifier 'every 'and pictures with entities in partial one-to-one correspondence. These errors stem from children’s difficulties in restricting the domain of a universal quantifier to the appropriate noun phrase and are referred in the literature as 'quantifier-spreading '('q'-spreading. We adapted the task to be performed in conjunction with eye-movement recordings using the Visual World Paradigm. Russian-speaking 5-to-6-year-old children ('N '= 31 listened to sentences like 'Kazhdyj alligator lezhit v vanne '‘Every alligator is lying in a bathtub’ and viewed pictures with three alligators, each in a bathtub, and two extra empty bathtubs. Non-spreader children ('N '= 12 were adult-like in their accuracy whereas 'q'-spreading ones ('N '= 19 were only 43% correct in interpreting such sentences compared to the control sentences. Eye movements of 'q'-spreading children revealed that more looks to the extra containers (two empty bathtubs correlated with higher error rates reflecting the processing pattern of 'q'-spreading. In contrast, more looks to the distractors in control sentences did not lead to errors in interpretation. We argue that 'q'-spreading errors are caused by interference from the extra entities in the visual context, and our results support the processing difficulty account of acquisition of quantification. Interference results in cognitive overload as children have to integrate multiple sources of information, i.e., visual context with salient extra entities and the spoken sentence in which these entities are mentioned in real-time processing.   This article is part of the special collection: Acquisition of Quantification

Credit Spreads Across the Business Cycle

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Mads Stenbo

This paper studies how corporate bond spreads vary with the business cycle. I show that both level and slope of empirical credit spread curves are correlated with the state of the economy, and I link this to variation in idiosyncratic jump risk. I develop a structural credit risk model...... that accounts for both business cycle and jump risk, and show by estimation that the model captures the counter-cyclical level and pro-cyclical slope of empirical credit spread curves. In addition, I provide a new procedure for estimation of idiosyncratic jump risk, which is consistent with observed shocks...

Colonic motility and enema spreading

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hardy, J.G.; Wood, E.; Clark, A.G.; Reynolds, J.R.; Queen's Medical Centre, Nottingham

1986-01-01

Radiolabelled enema solution was administered to eight healthy subjects, both in fasted and fed states. Enema spreading was monitored over a 4-h period using gamma scintigraphy and colonic motility was recorded simultaneously using a pressure sensitive radiotelemetry capsule. The rate and extent of enema dispersion were unaffected by eating. Spreading could be correlated with colonic motility and was inhibited by aboral propulsion of the colonic contents. (orig.)

Drought Persistence Errors in Global Climate Models

Science.gov (United States)

Moon, H.; Gudmundsson, L.; Seneviratne, S. I.

2018-04-01

The persistence of drought events largely determines the severity of socioeconomic and ecological impacts, but the capability of current global climate models (GCMs) to simulate such events is subject to large uncertainties. In this study, the representation of drought persistence in GCMs is assessed by comparing state-of-the-art GCM model simulations to observation-based data sets. For doing so, we consider dry-to-dry transition probabilities at monthly and annual scales as estimates for drought persistence, where a dry status is defined as negative precipitation anomaly. Though there is a substantial spread in the drought persistence bias, most of the simulations show systematic underestimation of drought persistence at global scale. Subsequently, we analyzed to which degree (i) inaccurate observations, (ii) differences among models, (iii) internal climate variability, and (iv) uncertainty of the employed statistical methods contribute to the spread in drought persistence errors using an analysis of variance approach. The results show that at monthly scale, model uncertainty and observational uncertainty dominate, while the contribution from internal variability is small in most cases. At annual scale, the spread of the drought persistence error is dominated by the statistical estimation error of drought persistence, indicating that the partitioning of the error is impaired by the limited number of considered time steps. These findings reveal systematic errors in the representation of drought persistence in current GCMs and suggest directions for further model improvement.

Role of Atmospheric Cloud Radiative Effects in the Intermodal Spread in the Shift of Southern Hemispheric Eddy-driven Jet in Responses to Global Warming

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Y.; Thompson, D. W. J.; Bony, S.

2017-12-01

Observations and most climate models suggest storm track and extratropical eddy driven jet shifts poleward in a warmer climate, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. However, the magnitude of such shifts remains uncertain. Even for a prescribed uniform SST changes, models produce large inter-model spread in the magnitude of jet shift, suggesting that a substantial part of these uncertainties are caused by the impact of cloud radiative effects on the atmospheric heating rate per se. In this study we will investigate 1) how much do clouds contribute to the spread of the circulation response in the absence of SST coupling? 2) how much do clouds contribute to the spread of the direct CO2 and SST-only response?

Longitudinal Variations in the Variability of Spread F Occurrence

Science.gov (United States)

Groves, K. M.; Bridgwood, C.; Carrano, C. S.

2017-12-01

The complex dynamics of the equatorial ionosphere have attracted the interest and attention of researchers for many decades. The relatively local processes that give rise to large meridional gradients have been well documented and the associated terminology has entered the common lexicon of ionospheric research (e.g., fountain effect, equatorial anomaly, bubbles, Spread F). Zonal variations have also been noted, principally at the level of determining longitudinal differences in seasonal activity patterns. Due to a historical lack of high resolution ground-based observations at low latitudes, the primary source of data for such analyses has been space-based observations from satellites such as ROCSAT, DMSP, C/NOFS that measure in situ electron density variations. An important longitudinal variation in electron density structure associated with non-migrating diurnal tides was discovered by Immel et al. in 2006 using data from the FUV sensor aboard the NASA IMAGE satellite. These satellite observations have been very helpful in identifying the structural characteristics of the equatorial ionosphere and the occurrence of Spread F, but they provide little insight into variations in scintillation features and potential differences in bubble development characteristics. Moreover space-based studies tend towards the statistics of occurrence frequency over periods of weeks to months. A recent analysis of daily spread F occurrence as determined by low latitude VHF scintillation activity shows that statistical results that are consistent with previous space-based observations, but the level of variability in the occurrence data show marked variations with longitude. For example, the American sector shows very low in-season variability while the African and Asian sectors exhibit true day-to-day variability regardless of seasonal variations. The results have significant implications for space weather as they suggest that long-term forecasts of equatorial scintillation may be

Generation and reception of spread-spectrum signals

Science.gov (United States)

Moser, R.

1983-05-01

The term 'spread-spectrum' implies a technique whereby digitized information is added to a pseudo-random number sequence and the resultant bit stream changes some parameter of the carrier frequency in discrete increments. The discrete modulation of the carrier frequency is usually realized either as a multiple level phase shift keyed or frequency shift keyed signal. The resultant PSK-modulated frequency spectrum is referred to as direct sequence spread-spectrum, whereas the FSK-modulated carrier frequency is referred to as a frequency hopped spread spectrum. These can be considered the major subsets of the more general term 'spread-spectrum'. In discussing signal reception, it is pointed out that active correlation methods are used for channel synchronization when the psuedo random sequences are long or when the processing gain is large, whereas the passive methods may be used for either short pseudo-random noise generation codes or to assist in attaining initial synchronization in long sequence spread-spectrum systems.

Experimental investigation of particulate debris spreading in a pool

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Konovalenko, A., E-mail: kono@kth.se [Division of Nuclear Power Safety, Royal Institute of Technology (KTH) , Roslagstullsbacken 21, Stockholm 106 91 (Sweden); Basso, S., E-mail: simoneb@kth.se [Division of Nuclear Power Safety, Royal Institute of Technology (KTH) , Roslagstullsbacken 21, Stockholm 106 91 (Sweden); Kudinov, P., E-mail: pkudinov@kth.se [Division of Nuclear Power Safety, Royal Institute of Technology (KTH) , Roslagstullsbacken 21, Stockholm 106 91 (Sweden); Yakush, S.E., E-mail: yakush@ipmnet.ru [Institute for Problems in Mechanics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Ave. Vernadskogo 101 Bldg 1, Moscow 119526 (Russian Federation)

2016-02-15

Termination of severe accident progression by core debris cooling in a deep pool of water under reactor vessel is considered in several designs of light water reactors. However, success of this accident mitigation strategy is contingent upon the effectiveness of heat removal by natural circulation from the debris bed. It is assumed that a porous bed will be formed in the pool in the process of core melt fragmentation and quenching. Debris bed coolability depends on its properties and system conditions. The properties of the bed, including its geometry are the outcomes of the debris bed formation process. Spreading of the debris particles in the pool by two-phase turbulent flows induced by the heat generated in the bed can affect the shape of the bed and thus influence its coolability. The goal of this work is to provide experimental data on spreading of solid particles in the pool by large-scale two-phase flow. The aim is to provide data necessary for understanding of separate effects and for development and validation of models and codes. Validated codes can be then used for prediction of debris bed formation under prototypic severe accident conditions. In PDS-P (Particulate Debris Spreading in the Pool) experiments, air injection at the bottom of the test section is employed as a means to create large-scale flow in the pool in isothermal conditions. The test section is a rectangular tank with a 2D slice geometry, it has fixed width (72 mm), adjustable length (up to 1.5 m) and allows water filling to the depth of up to 1 m. Variable pool length and depth allows studying two-phase circulating flows of different characteristic sizes and patterns. The average void fraction in the pool is determined by video recording and subsequent image processing. Particles are supplied from the top of the facility above the water surface. Results of several series of PDS-P experiments are reported in this paper. The influence of the gas flow rate, pool dimensions, particle density

ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS OF GLOBALIZATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oana CHINDRIS-VASIOIU

2013-12-01

Full Text Available The confrontation between third millennium will not be between civilizations but between forces of globalization and global agents. Already live in a global economy, context in which it is necessary to understand by globalization the modernization process of life world by spreading economic means of production and communication at world level. Globalization produces a capitalism healthy whereas stimulates competition beneficial between an ever-increasing number of companies. Economic and political unification under the global financial corporate banner is accompanied by mixing spiritual values and return unique realm. After internationalism political correctness (multiculturalism, feminism, ecological radically administered Western individualism typical bruising, it seems that the ground is ready for the big toe-in. Globalization can be seen as a crucial stage of expansion and economic interdependence. This stage is completing a process of aggregation of relatively autonomous local economies whose element mainly in the past has been constant widening of the space for the exchange of each economic savings. Economic renewal based on knowledge of known but a contrary geospatial evolution. Advances in knowledge are favored and intimately linked to the possibility of communication. So, they are favored by communication infrastructure and communication technologies.

Transmission loss patterns from acoustic harassment and deterrent devices do not always follow geometrical spreading predictions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Shapiro, A.D.; Tougaard, J.; Jørgensen, P.B.

2009-01-01

and cylindrical spreading models and conflicted with the classic concept of concentric zones of increasing disturbance with decreasing range. Under such conditions, animals may encounter difficulties when trying to determine the direction to and location of a sound source, which may complicate or jeopardize...... level for all sources in each of the environments. This variability was likely caused by source directionality, inter-ping source level variation and multipath interference. Rapid and unpredictable variations in the sound level as a function of range deviated from expectations derived from spherical...

Climate impact on spreading of airborne infectious diseases. Complex network based modeling of climate influences on influenza like illnesses

Science.gov (United States)

Brenner, Frank; Marwan, Norbert; Hoffmann, Peter

2017-06-01

In this study we combined a wide range of data sets to simulate the outbreak of an airborne infectious disease that is directly transmitted from human to human. The basis is a complex network whose structures are inspired by global air traffic data (from openflights.org) containing information about airports, airport locations, direct flight connections and airplane types. Disease spreading inside every node is realized with a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) compartmental model. Disease transmission rates in our model are depending on the climate environment and therefore vary in time and from node to node. To implement the correlation between water vapor pressure and influenza transmission rate [J. Shaman, M. Kohn, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 106, 3243 (2009)], we use global available climate reanalysis data (WATCH-Forcing-Data-ERA-Interim, WFDEI). During our sensitivity analysis we found that disease spreading dynamics are strongly depending on network properties, the climatic environment of the epidemic outbreak location, and the season during the year in which the outbreak is happening.

Heterogeneous incidence and propagation of spreading depolarizations

Science.gov (United States)

Kaufmann, Dan; Theriot, Jeremy J; Zyuzin, Jekaterina; Service, C Austin; Chang, Joshua C; Tang, Y Tanye; Bogdanov, Vladimir B; Multon, Sylvie; Schoenen, Jean; Ju, Y Sungtaek

2016-01-01

Spreading depolarizations are implicated in a diverse set of neurologic diseases. They are unusual forms of nervous system activity in that they propagate very slowly and approximately concentrically, apparently not respecting the anatomic, synaptic, functional, or vascular architecture of the brain. However, there is evidence that spreading depolarizations are not truly concentric, isotropic, or homogeneous, either in space or in time. Here we present evidence from KCl-induced spreading depolarizations, in mouse and rat, in vivo and in vitro, showing the great variability that these depolarizations can exhibit. This variability can help inform the mechanistic understanding of spreading depolarizations, and it has implications for their phenomenology in neurologic disease. PMID:27562866

Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ren, Guangming, E-mail: wangxy@dlut.edu.cn, E-mail: ren-guang-ming@163.com [School of Electronic and Information, Guangdong Polytechnic Normal University, Guangzhou 510665 (China); Faculty of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China); Wang, Xingyuan, E-mail: wangxy@dlut.edu.cn, E-mail: ren-guang-ming@163.com [Faculty of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China)

2014-06-15

The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold q{sub c}. The epidemic will survive when q > q{sub c} and die when q < q{sub c}. These results can help understanding the impacts of human travel on the epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure.

Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ren, Guangming; Wang, Xingyuan

2014-01-01

The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold q c . The epidemic will survive when q > q c and die when q  c . These results can help understanding the impacts of human travel on the epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure

Peculiarities of spreading separatist trends in the Modern World in the context of development of the global processes