WorldWideScience

Sample records for global spreading patterns

  1. The global spread of HIV-1 subtype B epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magiorkinis, Gkikas; Angelis, Konstantinos; Mamais, Ioannis; Katzourakis, Aris; Hatzakis, Angelos; Albert, Jan; Lawyer, Glenn; Hamouda, Osamah; Struck, Daniel; Vercauteren, Jurgen; Wensing, Annemarie; Alexiev, Ivailo; Åsjö, Birgitta; Balotta, Claudia; Gomes, Perpétua; Camacho, Ricardo J; Coughlan, Suzie; Griskevicius, Algirdas; Grossman, Zehava; Horban, Anders; Kostrikis, Leondios G; Lepej, Snjezana J; Liitsola, Kirsi; Linka, Marek; Nielsen, Claus; Otelea, Dan; Paredes, Roger; Poljak, Mario; Puchhammer-Stöckl, Elizabeth; Schmit, Jean Claude; Sönnerborg, Anders; Staneková, Danica; Stanojevic, Maja; Stylianou, Dora C; Boucher, Charles A B; Nikolopoulos, Georgios; Vasylyeva, Tetyana; Friedman, Samuel R; van de Vijver, David; Angarano, Gioacchino; Chaix, Marie-Laure; de Luca, Andrea; Korn, Klaus; Loveday, Clive; Soriano, Vincent; Yerly, Sabine; Zazzi, Mauricio; Vandamme, Anne-Mieke; Paraskevis, Dimitrios

    2016-12-01

    Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) was discovered in the early 1980s when the virus had already established a pandemic. For at least three decades the epidemic in the Western World has been dominated by subtype B infections, as part of a sub-epidemic that traveled from Africa through Haiti to United States. However, the pattern of the subsequent spread still remains poorly understood. Here we analyze a large dataset of globally representative HIV-1 subtype B strains to map their spread around the world over the last 50years and describe significant spread patterns. We show that subtype B travelled from North America to Western Europe in different occasions, while Central/Eastern Europe remained isolated for the most part of the early epidemic. Looking with more detail in European countries we see that the United Kingdom, France and Switzerland exchanged viral isolates with non-European countries than with European ones. The observed pattern is likely to mirror geopolitical landmarks in the post-World War II era, namely the rise and the fall of the Iron Curtain and the European colonialism. In conclusion, HIV-1 spread through specific migration routes which are consistent with geopolitical factors that affected human activities during the last 50years, such as migration, tourism and trade. Our findings support the argument that epidemic control policies should be global and incorporate political and socioeconomic factors. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Understanding the spreading patterns of mobile phone viruses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Pu; Gonzalez, Marta; Hidalgo, Cesar; Barabasi, Albert-Laszlo

    2009-03-01

    Mobile viruses are little more than a nuisance today, but given our increased reliance on wireless communication, in the near future they could pose more risk than their PC based counterparts. Despite of the more than three hundred mobile viruses known so far, little is known about their spreading pattern, partly due to a lack of data on the communication and travel patterns of mobile phone users. Starting from the traffic and the communication pattern of six million mobile phone users, we model the vulnerability of mobile communications against potential virus outbreaks. We show that viruses exploiting Bluetooth and multimedia messaging services (MMS) follow markedly different spreading patterns. The Bluetooth virus can reach all susceptible handsets, but spreads relatively slowly, as its spread is driven by human mobility. In contrast, an MMS virus can spread rapidly, but because the underlying social network is fragmented, it can reach only a small fraction of all susceptible users. This difference affects both their spreading rate, the number of infected users, as well as the defense measures one needs to take to protect the system against potential viral outbreak.

  3. Impact of the topology of global macroeconomic network on the spreading of economic crises.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Kyu-Min; Yang, Jae-Suk; Kim, Gunn; Lee, Jaesung; Goh, Kwang-Il; Kim, In-mook

    2011-03-31

    Throughout economic history, the global economy has experienced recurring crises. The persistent recurrence of such economic crises calls for an understanding of their generic features rather than treating them as singular events. The global economic system is a highly complex system and can best be viewed in terms of a network of interacting macroeconomic agents. In this regard, from the perspective of collective network dynamics, here we explore how the topology of the global macroeconomic network affects the patterns of spreading of economic crises. Using a simple toy model of crisis spreading, we demonstrate that an individual country's role in crisis spreading is not only dependent on its gross macroeconomic capacities, but also on its local and global connectivity profile in the context of the world economic network. We find that on one hand clustering of weak links at the regional scale can significantly aggravate the spread of crises, but on the other hand the current network structure at the global scale harbors higher tolerance of extreme crises compared to more "globalized" random networks. These results suggest that there can be a potential hidden cost in the ongoing globalization movement towards establishing less-constrained, trans-regional economic links between countries, by increasing vulnerability of the global economic system to extreme crises.

  4. The effects of global awareness on the spreading of epidemics in multiplex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zang, Haijuan

    2018-02-01

    It is increasingly recognized that understanding the complex interplay patterns between epidemic spreading and human behavioral is a key component of successful infection control efforts. In particular, individuals can obtain the information about epidemics and respond by altering their behaviors, which can affect the spreading dynamics as well. Besides, because the existence of herd-like behaviors, individuals are very easy to be influenced by the global awareness information. Here, in this paper, we propose a global awareness controlled spreading model (GACS) to explore the interplay between the coupled dynamical processes. Using the global microscopic Markov chain approach, we obtain the analytical results for the epidemic thresholds, which shows a high accuracy by comparison with lots of Monte Carlo simulations. Furthermore, considering other classical models used to describe the coupled dynamical processes, including the local awareness controlled contagion spreading (LACS) model, Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible-Unaware-Aware-Unaware (SIS-UAU) model and the single layer occasion, we make a detailed comparisons between the GACS with them. Although the comparisons and results depend on the parameters each model has, the GACS model always shows a strong restrain effects on epidemic spreading process. Our results give us a better understanding of the coupled dynamical processes and highlights the importance of considering the spreading of global awareness in the control of epidemics.

  5. Epidemic spreading in localized environments with recurrent mobility patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granell, Clara; Mucha, Peter J.

    2018-05-01

    The spreading of epidemics is very much determined by the structure of the contact network, which may be impacted by the mobility dynamics of the individuals themselves. In confined scenarios where a small, closed population spends most of its time in localized environments and has easily identifiable mobility patterns—such as workplaces, university campuses, or schools—it is of critical importance to identify the factors controlling the rate of disease spread. Here, we present a discrete-time, metapopulation-based model to describe the transmission of susceptible-infected-susceptible-like diseases that take place in confined scenarios where the mobilities of the individuals are not random but, rather, follow clear recurrent travel patterns. This model allows analytical determination of the onset of epidemics, as well as the ability to discern which contact structures are most suited to prevent the infection to spread. It thereby determines whether common prevention mechanisms, as isolation, are worth implementing in such a scenario and their expected impact.

  6. Global warming and spread of infectious diseases; Globale Erwaermung und Ausbreitung von Infektionskrankheiten

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ebert, B.; Fleischer, B. [Bernhard-Nocht-Institut fuer Tropenmedizin (BNI), Hamburg (Germany)

    2005-01-15

    At the end of the twentieth century, tropical infectious diseases increased despite earlier successes of eradication campaigns. As a global warming of 1.4-5.8 C is anticipated to occur by 2100, mainly the vector-borne tropical diseases that are particularly sensitive to climate are expected to spread. Although biological reasons seemingly support this hypothesis, ecological and socio-economic factors have in the past proven to be stronger driving forces for the spread of infectious diseases than climate. (orig.)

  7. Modelling fast spreading patterns of airborne infectious diseases using complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brenner, Frank; Marwan, Norbert; Hoffmann, Peter

    2017-04-01

    The pandemics of SARS (2002/2003) and H1N1 (2009) have impressively shown the potential of epidemic outbreaks of infectious diseases in a world that is strongly connected. Global air travelling established an easy and fast opportunity for pathogens to migrate globally in only a few days. This made epidemiological prediction harder. By understanding this complex development and its link to climate change we can suggest actions to control a part of global human health affairs. In this study we combine the following data components to simulate the outbreak of an airborne infectious disease that is directly transmitted from human to human: em{Global Air Traffic Network (from openflights.org) with information on airports, airport location, direct flight connection, airplane type} em{Global population dataset (from SEDAC, NASA)} em{Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) compartmental model to simulate disease spreading in the vicinity of airports. A modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model to analyze the impact of the incubation period.} em{WATCH-Forcing-Data-ERA-Interim (WFDEI) climate data: temperature, specific humidity, surface air pressure, and water vapor pressure} These elements are implemented into a complex network. Nodes inside the network represent airports. Each single node is equipped with its own SIR/SEIR compartmental model with node specific attributes. Edges between those nodes represent direct flight connections that allow infected individuals to move between linked nodes. Therefore the interaction of the set of unique SIR models creates the model dynamics we will analyze. To better figure out the influence on climate change on disease spreading patterns, we focus on Influenza-like-Illnesses (ILI). The transmission rate of ILI has a dependency on climate parameters like humidity and temperature. Even small changes of environmental variables can trigger significant differences in the global outbreak behavior. Apart from the direct

  8. Global patterns of drought recovery

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schwalm, Christopher R.; Anderegg, William R. L.; Michalak, Anna M.; Fisher, Joshua B.; Biondi, Franco; Koch, George; Litvak, Marcy; Ogle, Kiona; Shaw, John D.; Wolf, Adam; Huntzinger, Deborah N.; Schaefer, Kevin; Cook, Robert; Wei, Yaxing; Fang, Yuanyuan; Hayes, Daniel; Huang, Maoyi; Jain, Atul; Tian, Hanqin

    2017-08-09

    Drought is a recurring multi-factor phenomenon with major impacts on natural and human systems1-3. Drought is especially important for land carbon sink variability, influencing climate regulation of the terrestrial biosphere4. While 20th Century trends in drought regime are ambiguous, “more extreme extremes” as well as more frequent and severe droughts3,7 are expected in the 21st Century. Recovery time, the length of time an ecosystem requires to revert to its pre-drought functional state, is a critical metric of drought impact. Yet the spatiotemporal patterning and controls of drought recovery are largely unknown. Here we use three distinct global datasets of gross primary productivity to show that across diverse terrestrial ecosystems drought recovery times are driven by biological productivity and biodiversity, with drought length and severity of secondary importance. Recovery time, especially for extreme droughts, and the areal extent of ecosystems in recovery from drought generally increase over the 20th Century, supporting an increase globally in drought impact8. Our results indicate that if future Anthropocene droughts become more widespread as expected, that droughts will become more frequent relative to recovery time. This increases the risk of entering a new regime where vegetation never recovers to its original state and widespread degradation of the land carbon sink ensues.

  9. An empirical model of global spread-f occurrence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singleton, D.G.

    1974-09-01

    A method of combining models of ionospheric F-layer peak electron density and irregularity incremental electron density into a model of the occurrence probability of the frequency spreading component of spread-F is presented. The predictions of the model are compared with spread-F occurrence data obtained under sunspot maximum conditions. Good agreement is obtained for latitudes less than 70 0 geomagnetic. At higher latitudes, the inclusion of a 'blackout factor' in the model allows it to accurately represent the data and, in so doing, resolves an apparent discrepancy in the occurrence statistics at high latitudes. The blackout factor is ascribed to the effect of polar blackout on the spread-F statistics and/or the lack of a definitve incremental electron density model for irregularities at polar latitudes. Ways of isolating these effects and assessing their relative importance in the blackout factor are discussed. The model, besides providing estimates of spread-F occurrence on a worldwide basis, which will be of value in the engineering of HF and VHF communications, also furnishes a means of further checking the irregularity incremental electron density model on which it is based. (author)

  10. A numerical study of three-dimensional droplets spreading on chemically patterned surfaces

    KAUST Repository

    Zhong, Hua; Wang, Xiao-Ping; Sun, Shuyu

    2016-01-01

    We study numerically the three-dimensional droplets spreading on physically flat chemically patterned surfaces with periodic squares separated by channels. Our model consists of the Navier-Stokes-Cahn-Hilliard equations with the generalized Navier

  11. MRI findings and spreading patterns of necrotizing external otitis: Is a poor outcome predictable?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kwon, B.J. [Department of Radiology, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Han, M.H. [Department of Radiology, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of) and Clinical Research Institute, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul (Korea, Republic of) and Institute of Radiation Medicine, Seoul National University Medical Research Center, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)]. E-mail: hanmh@radcom.snu.ac.kr; Oh, S.H. [Department of Otorhinolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Song, J.J. [Department of Otorhinolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Chang, K.-H. [Department of Radiology, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Clinical Research Institute, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Institute of Radiation Medicine, Seoul National University Medical Research Center, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2006-06-15

    AIM: To evaluate spreading patterns of necrotizing external otitis (NEO) by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and to identify spreading patterns related to a poor outcome. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Fourteen patients with NEO were divided into good and poor outcome groups according to their final clinical outcomes. Initial MRI images were retrospectively reviewed for regional abnormalities, and follow-up MRI images were reviewed for ICA flow void abnormality and for the following five spreading patterns: medial, crossed, anterior, intracranial, and combined. The frequencies of the abnormal flow void or spreading patterns were compared between the good and poor response groups. RESULTS: Seven (50%) and seven (50%) patients were respectively allocated to the good and poor outcome groups. Retrocondylar fat infiltration was the most commonest finding on initial MRI images (93%). The frequencies of the abnormal flow void and spreading patterns in the good and poor groups, respectively, were: abnormal flow void, 0 and four (57%); anterior, two (29%) and three (43%); medial, six (86%) and seven (100%); crossed, six (86%) and seven (100%); intracranial middle cranial fossa, one (14%) and four (57%); intracranial posterior cranial fossa, four (57%) and six (86%); intracranial foramen magnum, one (14%) and six (86%). CONCLUSIONS: NEO almost always involves the retrocondylar fat and spreads via various pathways to extracranial or intracranial spaces. The presence of an abnormal flow void and intracranial dural enhancement, particularly in the middle cranial fossa and foramen magnum, may indicate a poor prognosis.

  12. MRI findings and spreading patterns of necrotizing external otitis: Is a poor outcome predictable?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kwon, B.J.; Han, M.H.; Oh, S.H.; Song, J.J.; Chang, K.-H.

    2006-01-01

    AIM: To evaluate spreading patterns of necrotizing external otitis (NEO) by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and to identify spreading patterns related to a poor outcome. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Fourteen patients with NEO were divided into good and poor outcome groups according to their final clinical outcomes. Initial MRI images were retrospectively reviewed for regional abnormalities, and follow-up MRI images were reviewed for ICA flow void abnormality and for the following five spreading patterns: medial, crossed, anterior, intracranial, and combined. The frequencies of the abnormal flow void or spreading patterns were compared between the good and poor response groups. RESULTS: Seven (50%) and seven (50%) patients were respectively allocated to the good and poor outcome groups. Retrocondylar fat infiltration was the most commonest finding on initial MRI images (93%). The frequencies of the abnormal flow void and spreading patterns in the good and poor groups, respectively, were: abnormal flow void, 0 and four (57%); anterior, two (29%) and three (43%); medial, six (86%) and seven (100%); crossed, six (86%) and seven (100%); intracranial middle cranial fossa, one (14%) and four (57%); intracranial posterior cranial fossa, four (57%) and six (86%); intracranial foramen magnum, one (14%) and six (86%). CONCLUSIONS: NEO almost always involves the retrocondylar fat and spreads via various pathways to extracranial or intracranial spaces. The presence of an abnormal flow void and intracranial dural enhancement, particularly in the middle cranial fossa and foramen magnum, may indicate a poor prognosis

  13. Global patterns of amphibian phylogenetic diversity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fritz, Susanne; Rahbek, Carsten

    2012-01-01

    Aim  Phylogenetic diversity can provide insight into how evolutionary processes may have shaped contemporary patterns of species richness. Here, we aim to test for the influence of phylogenetic history on global patterns of amphibian species richness, and to identify areas where macroevolutionary...... processes such as diversification and dispersal have left strong signatures on contemporary species richness. Location  Global; equal-area grid cells of approximately 10,000 km2. Methods  We generated an amphibian global supertree (6111 species) and repeated analyses with the largest available molecular...... phylogeny (2792 species). We combined each tree with global species distributions to map four indices of phylogenetic diversity. To investigate congruence between global spatial patterns of amphibian species richness and phylogenetic diversity, we selected Faith’s phylogenetic diversity (PD) index...

  14. Epidemic spreading and global stability of an SIS model with an infective vector on complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Huiyan; Fu, Xinchu

    2015-10-01

    In this paper, we present a new SIS model with delay on scale-free networks. The model is suitable to describe some epidemics which are not only transmitted by a vector but also spread between individuals by direct contacts. In view of the biological relevance and real spreading process, we introduce a delay to denote average incubation period of disease in a vector. By mathematical analysis, we obtain the epidemic threshold and prove the global stability of equilibria. The simulation shows the delay will effect the epidemic spreading. Finally, we investigate and compare two major immunization strategies, uniform immunization and targeted immunization.

  15. Optimizing human activity patterns using global sensitivity analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fairchild, Geoffrey; Hickmann, Kyle S; Mniszewski, Susan M; Del Valle, Sara Y; Hyman, James M

    2014-12-01

    Implementing realistic activity patterns for a population is crucial for modeling, for example, disease spread, supply and demand, and disaster response. Using the dynamic activity simulation engine, DASim, we generate schedules for a population that capture regular (e.g., working, eating, and sleeping) and irregular activities (e.g., shopping or going to the doctor). We use the sample entropy (SampEn) statistic to quantify a schedule's regularity for a population. We show how to tune an activity's regularity by adjusting SampEn, thereby making it possible to realistically design activities when creating a schedule. The tuning process sets up a computationally intractable high-dimensional optimization problem. To reduce the computational demand, we use Bayesian Gaussian process regression to compute global sensitivity indices and identify the parameters that have the greatest effect on the variance of SampEn. We use the harmony search (HS) global optimization algorithm to locate global optima. Our results show that HS combined with global sensitivity analysis can efficiently tune the SampEn statistic with few search iterations. We demonstrate how global sensitivity analysis can guide statistical emulation and global optimization algorithms to efficiently tune activities and generate realistic activity patterns. Though our tuning methods are applied to dynamic activity schedule generation, they are general and represent a significant step in the direction of automated tuning and optimization of high-dimensional computer simulations.

  16. Bursty communication patterns facilitate spreading in a threshold-based epidemic dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takaguchi, Taro; Masuda, Naoki; Holme, Petter

    2013-01-01

    Records of social interactions provide us with new sources of data for understanding how interaction patterns affect collective dynamics. Such human activity patterns are often bursty, i.e., they consist of short periods of intense activity followed by long periods of silence. This burstiness has been shown to affect spreading phenomena; it accelerates epidemic spreading in some cases and slows it down in other cases. We investigate a model of history-dependent contagion. In our model, repeated interactions between susceptible and infected individuals in a short period of time is needed for a susceptible individual to contract infection. We carry out numerical simulations on real temporal network data to find that bursty activity patterns facilitate epidemic spreading in our model.

  17. Bursty communication patterns facilitate spreading in a threshold-based epidemic dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taro Takaguchi

    Full Text Available Records of social interactions provide us with new sources of data for understanding how interaction patterns affect collective dynamics. Such human activity patterns are often bursty, i.e., they consist of short periods of intense activity followed by long periods of silence. This burstiness has been shown to affect spreading phenomena; it accelerates epidemic spreading in some cases and slows it down in other cases. We investigate a model of history-dependent contagion. In our model, repeated interactions between susceptible and infected individuals in a short period of time is needed for a susceptible individual to contract infection. We carry out numerical simulations on real temporal network data to find that bursty activity patterns facilitate epidemic spreading in our model.

  18. Global stability of a two-mediums rumor spreading model with media coverage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huo, Liang'an; Wang, Li; Song, Guoxiang

    2017-09-01

    Rumor spreading is a typical form of social communication and plays a significant role in social life, and media coverage has a great influence on the spread of rumor. In this paper, we present a new model with two media coverage to investigate the impact of the different mediums on rumor spreading. Then, we calculate the equilibria of the model and construct the reproduction number ℜ0. And we prove the global asymptotic stability of equilibria by using Lyapunov functions. Finally, we can conclude that the transition rate of the ignorants between two mediums has a direct effect on the scale of spreaders, and different media coverage has significant effects on the dynamics behaviors of rumor spreading.

  19. Exploring the Complex Pattern of Information Spreading in Online Blog Communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pei, Sen; Muchnik, Lev; Tang, Shaoting; Zheng, Zhiming; Makse, Hernán A.

    2015-01-01

    Information spreading in online social communities has attracted tremendous attention due to its utmost practical values in applications. Despite that several individual-level diffusion data have been investigated, we still lack the detailed understanding of the spreading pattern of information. Here, by comparing information flows and social links in a blog community, we find that the diffusion processes are induced by three different spreading mechanisms: social spreading, self-promotion and broadcast. Although numerous previous studies have employed epidemic spreading models to simulate information diffusion, we observe that such models fail to reproduce the realistic diffusion pattern. In respect to users behaviors, strikingly, we find that most users would stick to one specific diffusion mechanism. Moreover, our observations indicate that the social spreading is not only crucial for the structure of diffusion trees, but also capable of inducing more subsequent individuals to acquire the information. Our findings suggest new directions for modeling of information diffusion in social systems, and could inform design of efficient propagation strategies based on users behaviors. PMID:25985081

  20. Mapping global diversity patterns for migratory birds.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marius Somveille

    Full Text Available Nearly one in five bird species has separate breeding and overwintering distributions, and the regular migrations of these species cause a substantial seasonal redistribution of avian diversity across the world. However, despite its ecological importance, bird migration has been largely ignored in studies of global avian biodiversity, with few studies having addressed it from a macroecological perspective. Here, we analyse a dataset on the global distribution of the world's birds in order to examine global spatial patterns in the diversity of migratory species, including: the seasonal variation in overall species diversity due to migration; the contribution of migratory birds to local bird diversity; and the distribution of narrow-range and threatened migratory birds. Our analyses reveal a striking asymmetry between the Northern and Southern hemispheres, evident in all of the patterns investigated. The highest migratory bird diversity was found in the Northern Hemisphere, with high inter-continental turnover in species composition between breeding and non-breeding seasons, and extensive regions (at high latitudes where migratory birds constitute the majority of the local avifauna. Threatened migratory birds are concentrated mainly in Central and Southern Asia, whereas narrow-range migratory species are mainly found in Central America, the Himalayas and Patagonia. Overall, global patterns in the diversity of migratory birds indicate that bird migration is mainly a Northern Hemisphere phenomenon. The asymmetry between the Northern and Southern hemispheres could not have easily been predicted from the combined results of regional scale studies, highlighting the importance of a global perspective.

  1. Satellite communications - Intelsat and global patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Astrain, S.

    1983-10-01

    The global pattern of mankind's population growth is examined, taking into account the exponential increase in population which began only in the 17th century. As world population has grown, trade has increased, and transportation and communications have become vitally important. A revolution in global communications was initiated when Intelsat launched the first international communications satellite, 'Early Bird', in April 1965. Since April 1965, a tremendous development in global communications by means of satellites has taken place. The Intelsat VI satellite will have a capacity of 36,000 telephone circuits plus 2 TV channels, while the capacity of Early Bird was only 240 telephone circuits. Today, Intelsat is truly an international organization which includes 108 member countries. Attention is given to the particular importance of the Intelsat services to the developing countries, the exploration of new technologies and system concepts, and the extension of services to those portions of the global village which have remained electronically isolated.

  2. Evolutionary history and global spread of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis Beijing lineage.

    OpenAIRE

    Merker Matthias; Blin Camille; Mona Stefano; Duforet-Frebourg Nicolas; Lecher Sophie; Willery Eve; Blum Michael G B; Rüsch-Gerdes Sabine; Mokrousov Igor; Aleksic Eman; Allix-Béguec Caroline; Antierens Annick; Augustynowicz-Kopec Ewa; Ballif Marie; Barletta Francesca

    2015-01-01

    International audience; Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains of the Beijing lineage are globally distributed and are associated with the massive spread of multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis in Eurasia. Here we reconstructed the biogeographical structure and evolutionary history of this lineage by genetic analysis of 4,987 isolates from 99 countries and whole-genome sequencing of 110 representative isolates. We show that this lineage initially originated in the Far East, from where it radiat...

  3. Liquid spreading on ceramic-coated carbon nanotube films and patterned microstructures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Hangbo; Hart, A. John

    2015-11-01

    We study the capillary-driven liquid spreading behavior on films and microstructures of ceramic-coated vertically aligned carbon nanotubes (CNTs) fabricated on quartz substrates. The nanoscale porosity and micro-scale dimensions of the CNT structures, which can be precisely varied by the fabrication process, enable quantitative measurements that can be related to analytical models of the spreading behavior. Moreover, the conformal alumina coating by atomic layer deposition (ALD) prevents capillary-induced deformation of the CNTs upon meniscus recession, which has complicated previous studies of this topic. Washburn-like liquid spreading behavior is observed on non-patterned CNT surfaces, and is explained using a scaling model based on the balance of capillary driving force and the viscous drag force. Using these insights, we design patterned surfaces with controllable spreading rates and study the contact line pinning-depinning behavior. The nanoscale porosity, controllable surface chemistry, and mechanical stability of coated CNTs provide significantly enhanced liquid-solid interfacial area compared to solid microstructures. As a result, these surface designs may be useful for applications such as phase-change heat transfer and electrochemical energy storage. Funding for this project is provided by the National Institutes of Health and the MIT Center for Clean Water and Clean Energy supported by the King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals.

  4. Social contact patterns relevant to the spread of respiratory infectious diseases in Hong Kong.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leung, Kathy; Jit, Mark; Lau, Eric H Y; Wu, Joseph T

    2017-08-11

    The spread of many respiratory infections is determined by contact patterns between infectious and susceptible individuals in the population. There are no published data for quantifying social contact patterns relevant to the spread of respiratory infectious diseases in Hong Kong which is a hotspot for emerging infectious diseases due to its high population density and connectivity in the air transportation network. We adopted a commonly used diary-based design to conduct a social contact survey in Hong Kong in 2015/16 using both paper and online questionnaires. Participants using paper questionnaires reported more contacts and longer contact duration than those using online questionnaires. Participants reported 13 person-hours of contact and 8 contacts per day on average, which decreased over age but increased with household size, years of education and income level. Prolonged and frequent contacts, and contacts at home, school and work were more likely to involve physical contacts. Strong age-assortativity was observed in all age groups. We evaluated the characteristics of social contact patterns relevant to the spread of respiratory infectious diseases in Hong Kong. Our findings could help to improve the design of future social contact surveys, parameterize transmission models of respiratory infectious diseases, and inform intervention strategies based on model outputs.

  5. Role for migratory wild birds in the global spread of avian influenza H5N8

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,; Ip, Hon S.

    2016-01-01

    Avian influenza viruses affect both poultry production and public health. A subtype H5N8 (clade 2.3.4.4) virus, following an outbreak in poultry in South Korea in January 2014, rapidly spread worldwide in 2014–2015. Our analysis of H5N8 viral sequences, epidemiological investigations, waterfowl migration, and poultry trade showed that long-distance migratory birds can play a major role in the global spread of avian influenza viruses. Further, we found that the hemagglutinin of clade 2.3.4.4 virus was remarkably promiscuous, creating reassortants with multiple neuraminidase subtypes. Improving our understanding of the circumpolar circulation of avian influenza viruses in migratory waterfowl will help to provide early warning of threats from avian influenza to poultry, and potentially human, health.

  6. Evolutionary history and global spread of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis Beijing lineage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merker, Matthias; Blin, Camille; Mona, Stefano; Duforet-Frebourg, Nicolas; Lecher, Sophie; Willery, Eve; Blum, Michael G B; Rüsch-Gerdes, Sabine; Mokrousov, Igor; Aleksic, Eman; Allix-Béguec, Caroline; Antierens, Annick; Augustynowicz-Kopeć, Ewa; Ballif, Marie; Barletta, Francesca; Beck, Hans Peter; Barry, Clifton E; Bonnet, Maryline; Borroni, Emanuele; Campos-Herrero, Isolina; Cirillo, Daniela; Cox, Helen; Crowe, Suzanne; Crudu, Valeriu; Diel, Roland; Drobniewski, Francis; Fauville-Dufaux, Maryse; Gagneux, Sébastien; Ghebremichael, Solomon; Hanekom, Madeleine; Hoffner, Sven; Jiao, Wei-wei; Kalon, Stobdan; Kohl, Thomas A; Kontsevaya, Irina; Lillebæk, Troels; Maeda, Shinji; Nikolayevskyy, Vladyslav; Rasmussen, Michael; Rastogi, Nalin; Samper, Sofia; Sanchez-Padilla, Elisabeth; Savic, Branislava; Shamputa, Isdore Chola; Shen, Adong; Sng, Li-Hwei; Stakenas, Petras; Toit, Kadri; Varaine, Francis; Vukovic, Dragana; Wahl, Céline; Warren, Robin; Supply, Philip; Niemann, Stefan; Wirth, Thierry

    2015-03-01

    Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains of the Beijing lineage are globally distributed and are associated with the massive spread of multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis in Eurasia. Here we reconstructed the biogeographical structure and evolutionary history of this lineage by genetic analysis of 4,987 isolates from 99 countries and whole-genome sequencing of 110 representative isolates. We show that this lineage initially originated in the Far East, from where it radiated worldwide in several waves. We detected successive increases in population size for this pathogen over the last 200 years, practically coinciding with the Industrial Revolution, the First World War and HIV epidemics. Two MDR clones of this lineage started to spread throughout central Asia and Russia concomitantly with the collapse of the public health system in the former Soviet Union. Mutations identified in genes putatively under positive selection and associated with virulence might have favored the expansion of the most successful branches of the lineage.

  7. A numerical study of three-dimensional droplets spreading on chemically patterned surfaces

    KAUST Repository

    Zhong, Hua

    2016-09-26

    We study numerically the three-dimensional droplets spreading on physically flat chemically patterned surfaces with periodic squares separated by channels. Our model consists of the Navier-Stokes-Cahn-Hilliard equations with the generalized Navier boundary conditions. Stick-slip behavior and con-tact angle hysteresis are observed. Moreover, we also study the relationship between the effective advancing/receding angle and the two intrinsic angles of the surface patterns. By increasing the volume of droplet gradually, we find that the advancing contact line tends gradually to an equiangular octagon with the length ratio of the two adjacent sides equal to a fixed value that depends on the geometry of the pattern.

  8. A hydroclimatic model of global fire patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boer, Matthias

    2015-04-01

    Satellite-based earth observation is providing an increasingly accurate picture of global fire patterns. The highest fire activity is observed in seasonally dry (sub-)tropical environments of South America, Africa and Australia, but fires occur with varying frequency, intensity and seasonality in almost all biomes on Earth. The particular combination of these fire characteristics, or fire regime, is known to emerge from the combined influences of climate, vegetation, terrain and land use, but has so far proven difficult to reproduce by global models. Uncertainty about the biophysical drivers and constraints that underlie current global fire patterns is propagated in model predictions of how ecosystems, fire regimes and biogeochemical cycles may respond to projected future climates. Here, I present a hydroclimatic model of global fire patterns that predicts the mean annual burned area fraction (F) of 0.25° x 0.25° grid cells as a function of the climatic water balance. Following Bradstock's four-switch model, long-term fire activity levels were assumed to be controlled by fuel productivity rates and the likelihood that the extant fuel is dry enough to burn. The frequency of ignitions and favourable fire weather were assumed to be non-limiting at long time scales. Fundamentally, fuel productivity and fuel dryness are a function of the local water and energy budgets available for the production and desiccation of plant biomass. The climatic water balance summarizes the simultaneous availability of biologically usable energy and water at a site, and may therefore be expected to explain a significant proportion of global variation in F. To capture the effect of the climatic water balance on fire activity I focused on the upper quantiles of F, i.e. the maximum level of fire activity for a given climatic water balance. Analysing GFED4 data for annual burned area together with gridded climate data, I found that nearly 80% of the global variation in the 0.99 quantile of F

  9. Spatio-temporal dynamics of global H5N1 outbreaks match bird migration patterns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yali Si

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available The global spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 in poultry, wild birds and humans, poses a significant pandemic threat and a serious public health risk. An efficient surveillance and disease control system relies on the understanding of the dispersion patterns and spreading mechanisms of the virus. A space-time cluster analysis of H5N1 outbreaks was used to identify spatio-temporal patterns at a global scale and over an extended period of time. Potential mechanisms explaining the spread of the H5N1 virus, and the role of wild birds, were analyzed. Between December 2003 and December 2006, three global epidemic phases of H5N1 influenza were identified. These H5N1 outbreaks showed a clear seasonal pattern, with a high density of outbreaks in winter and early spring (i.e., October to March. In phase I and II only the East Asia Australian flyway was affected. During phase III, the H5N1 viruses started to appear in four other flyways: the Central Asian flyway, the Black Sea Mediterranean flyway, the East Atlantic flyway and the East Africa West Asian flyway. Six disease cluster patterns along these flyways were found to be associated with the seasonal migration of wild birds. The spread of the H5N1 virus, as demonstrated by the space-time clusters, was associated with the patterns of migration of wild birds. Wild birds may therefore play an important role in the spread of H5N1 over long distances. Disease clusters were also detected at sites where wild birds are known to overwinter and at times when migratory birds were present. This leads to the suggestion that wild birds may also be involved in spreading the H5N1 virus over short distances.

  10. Patient referral patterns and the spread of hospital-acquired infections through national health care networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tjibbe Donker

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Rates of hospital-acquired infections, such as methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA, are increasingly used as quality indicators for hospital hygiene. Alternatively, these rates may vary between hospitals, because hospitals differ in admission and referral of potentially colonized patients. We assessed if different referral patterns between hospitals in health care networks can influence rates of hospital-acquired infections like MRSA. We used the Dutch medical registration of 2004 to measure the connectedness between hospitals. This allowed us to reconstruct the network of hospitals in the Netherlands. We used mathematical models to assess the effect of different patient referral patterns on the potential spread of hospital-acquired infections between hospitals, and between categories of hospitals (University medical centers, top clinical hospitals and general hospitals. University hospitals have a higher number of shared patients than teaching or general hospitals, and are therefore more likely to be among the first to receive colonized patients. Moreover, as the network is directional towards university hospitals, they have a higher prevalence, even when infection control measures are equally effective in all hospitals. Patient referral patterns have a profound effect on the spread of health care-associated infections like hospital-acquired MRSA. The MRSA prevalence therefore differs between hospitals with the position of each hospital within the health care network. Any comparison of MRSA rates between hospitals, as a benchmark for hospital hygiene, should therefore take the position of a hospital within the network into account.

  11. Are child eating patterns being transformed globally?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adair, Linda S; Popkin, Barry M

    2005-07-01

    To examine the extent to which child dietary patterns and trends are changing globally. Diets of children 2 to 19 years of age were studied with nationally representative data from Russia and the United States, nationwide data from China, and regional data from metropolitan Cebu, Philippines. Twenty-four-hour dietary recalls were examined at several points in time to examine trends in calories consumed away from home, snacking behavior, and soft drink and modern fast food consumption. Urban-rural trends were compared. U.S. and Cebu youth consume more than one-third of their daily calories and a higher proportion of snack calories from foods prepared away from home. In contrast, away from home food consumption is minimal in Chinese and Russian children. U.S. and Cebu youth consume about one-fifth of their total daily energy from snacks, but snacks provide a much lower proportion of energy in Russia ( approximately 16%) and China (where snacks provide only approximately 1% of energy). Fast food plays a much more dominant role in the American diet ( approximately 20% of energy vs. 2% to 7% in the other countries), but as yet does not contribute substantially to children's diets in the other countries. Urban-rural differences were found to be important, but narrowing over time, for China and Cebu, whereas they are widening for Russia. This research suggests that globalization of the fast food and other modern food sectors is beginning to affect child eating patterns in several countries undergoing nutrition transition. However, the contribution of fast food and soft drinks to the diet of children remains relatively small in China, Russia, and Cebu, Philippines, relative to the United States.

  12. Spread patterns of lymph nodes and the value of elective neck irradiation for esthesioneuroblastoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Zhen-zhen; Luo, Jing-wei; Gao, Li; Yi, Jun-lin; Huang, Xiao-dong; Qu, Yuan; Wang, Kai; Zhang, Shi-ping; Xiao, Jian-ping; Xu, Guo-zhen; Li, Ye-xiong

    2015-11-01

    This study was aimed to characterize patterns of lymphatic spread and assess the value of prophylactic elective neck irradiation (ENI) for esthesioneuroblastoma (ENB). A retrospectively analysis of 116 patients with newly diagnosed ENB at our institution over 35-year period was undertaken. 32 patients (28%) presented lymph node metastasis at initial diagnosis, the common sites involved were level II, Ib, level III and VIIa. Among 80 N-negative patients staged in Modified Kadish B/C, 50 patients were delivered with ENI, 30 patients were not. The 5-year regional failure-free survival was 98% in patients treated with ENI and 75% in patients without ENI (p=0.005), regional failure rate decreased significantly from 23% (7/30) to 2% (1/50) after ENI (p=0.002). Multivariate analysis also suggested that ENI was an independent favorable predictor for regional controlling (HR, 0.102; 95% CI: 0.012-0.848; p=0.035). This is the largest cohort of ENB so far in a single institute, and also the first detailed description of nodal spread patterns of N-positive ENB. Elective neck irradiation reduced the regional failure significantly and should be recommended as a part of initial treatment strategy for patients staged with Modified Kadish B/C. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    F. Gerard Adams

    2008-01-01

    The rapid globalization of the world economy is causing fundamental changes in patterns of trade and finance. Some economists have argued that globalization has arrived and that the world is “flat†. While the geographic scope of markets has increased, the author argues that new patterns of trade and finance are a result of the discrepancies between “old†countries and “new†. As the differences are gradually wiped out, particularly if knowledge and technology spread worldwide, the t...

  14. Introduction: simultaneously global and local: reassessing smallpox vaccination and its spread, 1789-1900.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharya, Sanjoy; Brimnes, Niels

    2009-01-01

    The last two decades have seen a reawakening of scholarly interest in the history of smallpox prevention. Accounts of vaccination and others efforts at controlling smallpox have moved away from heroic narratives toward more nuanced and contextualized understandings. It is now accepted that several viruses traveled under the vaccine label from the outset, and it has been demonstrated that a variety of techniques were used to perform vaccination operations. The character of nineteenth century sea voyages that took the vaccine to distant territories has also been re-examined; sometimes the spread of the vaccine was caused by private networks and ad hoc decisions, while at other times it was the result of enterprises with close resemblances to contemporary centralized vaccination campaigns. Looking beyond Europe and North America we encounter a variety of state attitudes toward vaccination, ranging from concentrated efforts to spread the technique to efforts more uncertain and diluted. Although the reluctance to accept vaccination has been amply documented, recent studies emphasize this should not be attributed to simplistic dichotomies of modernity versus tradition or science versus culture; instead, instances of resistance are best studied as specific contextualized interactions. Indeed, factors like favorable geography, strong bureaucratic structures, and the absence of variolation seem to have helped the relatively smooth transfer of vaccination technologies. Perhaps most important, recent research encourages us to continue to study smallpox vaccination as a phenomenon that was simultaneously global and local.

  15. GLOBALIZATION, CONSUMPTION PATTERNS AND POLITICAL STABILITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grzegorz Malinowski

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Rapid changes in technology and economy that we observe nowadays are accompanied by rapid changes in traditional values and attitudes. In the contemporary world, a permanent proximity of internet, computer, television or smartphone makes us all citizens of the globalised, virtual world rather than a physical, geographical, real one. But even if people consider themselves to be citizens of the “global village”, a political architecture of the real world has remained based on the nation-state. One of the main characteristics of a nation-state is its territory defined by its borders. Recognition and respect of nation-state borders is considered to be a principle of national sovereignty, national interest and territorial independence, which shape international relations. Historically, rulers always usurped the right to control what happens on their territory, but there were some areas that had escaped their supervision. The first one is the sphere of science and more broadly – ideas. Whether it was religion, superstition or steam engine, ideas were unstoppable even for isolated countries. Second area is a realm of trade. Rulers were usually rather kind for merchants, therefore borders were always wide open for business people. It is worth mentioning that both ideas and trade are significant driving forces in the history of world. Their influence is sometimes stronger and sometimes weaker but it is always meaningful. Yet the very hypothesis of this article states that in contemporary, globalised world a third important factor has arrived. It was always present but until the economy hasn’t become globalized, its impact wasn’t noticeable. This third factor can be described as universalisation of western consumption patterns and it plays an important role particularly in developing countries.

  16. Mitochondrial Phylogenomics Resolves the Global Spread of Higher Termites, Ecosystem Engineers of the Tropics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourguignon, Thomas; Lo, Nathan; Šobotník, Jan; Ho, Simon Y W; Iqbal, Naeem; Coissac, Eric; Lee, Maria; Jendryka, Martin M; Sillam-Dussès, David; Krížková, Barbora; Roisin, Yves; Evans, Theodore A

    2017-03-01

    The higher termites (Termitidae) are keystone species and ecosystem engineers. They have exceptional biomass and play important roles in decomposition of dead plant matter, in soil manipulation, and as the primary food for many animals, especially in the tropics. Higher termites are most diverse in rainforests, with estimated origins in the late Eocene (∼54 Ma), postdating the breakup of Pangaea and Gondwana when most continents became separated. Since termites are poor fliers, their origin and spread across the globe requires alternative explanation. Here, we show that higher termites originated 42-54 Ma in Africa and subsequently underwent at least 24 dispersal events between the continents in two main periods. Using phylogenetic analyses of mitochondrial genomes from 415 species, including all higher termite taxonomic and feeding groups, we inferred 10 dispersal events to South America and Asia 35-23 Ma, coinciding with the sharp decrease in global temperature, sea level, and rainforest cover in the Oligocene. After global temperatures increased, 23-5 Ma, there was only one more dispersal to South America but 11 to Asia and Australia, and one dispersal back to Africa. Most of these dispersal events were transoceanic and might have occurred via floating logs. The spread of higher termites across oceans was helped by the novel ecological opportunities brought about by environmental and ecosystem change, and led termites to become one of the few insect groups with specialized mammal predators. This has parallels with modern invasive species that have been able to thrive in human-impacted ecosystems. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  17. Hydrothermal plumes over spreading-center axes: Global distributions and geological inferences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Edward T.; German, Christopher R.; Elderfield, Henry

    Seafloor hydrothermal circulation is the principal agent of energy and mass exchange between the ocean and the earth's crust. Discharging fluids cool hot rock, construct mineral deposits, nurture biological communities, alter deep-sea mixing and circulation patterns, and profoundly influence ocean chemistry and biology. Although the active discharge orifices themselves cover only a minuscule percentage of the ridge-axis seafloor, the investigation and quantification of their effects is enhanced as a consequence of the mixing process that forms hydrothermal plumes. Hydrothermal fluids discharged from vents are rapidly diluted with ambient seawater by factors of 104-105 [Lupton et al., 1985]. During dilution, the mixture rises tens to hundreds of meters to a level of neutral buoyancy, eventually spreading laterally as a distinct hydrographic and chemical layer with a spatial scale of tens to thousands of kilometers [e.g., Lupton and Craig, 1981; Baker and Massoth, 1987; Speer and Rona, 1989].

  18. Hurricane Activity and the Large-Scale Pattern of Spread of an Invasive Plant Species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattarai, Ganesh P.; Cronin, James T.

    2014-01-01

    Disturbances are a primary facilitator of the growth and spread of invasive species. However, the effects of large-scale disturbances, such as hurricanes and tropical storms, on the broad geographic patterns of invasive species growth and spread have not been investigated. We used historical aerial imagery to determine the growth rate of invasive Phragmites australis patches in wetlands along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the United States. These were relatively undisturbed wetlands where P. australis had room for unrestricted growth. Over the past several decades, invasive P. australis stands expanded in size by 6–35% per year. Based on tropical storm and hurricane activity over that same time period, we found that the frequency of hurricane-force winds explained 81% of the variation in P. australis growth over this broad geographic range. The expansion of P. australis stands was strongly and positively correlated with hurricane frequency. In light of the many climatic models that predict an increase in the frequency and intensity of hurricanes over the next century, these results suggest a strong link between climate change and species invasion and a challenging future ahead for the management of invasive species. PMID:24878928

  19. Spatio-temporal cerebral blood flow perfusion patterns in cortical spreading depression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verisokin, Andrey Yu.; Verveyko, Darya V.; Postnov, Dmitry E.

    2017-04-01

    Cortical spreading depression (CSD) is an example of one of the most common abnormalities in biophysical brain functioning. Despite the fact that there are many mathematical models describing the cortical spreading depression (CSD), most of them do not take into consideration the role of redistribution of cerebral blood flow (CBF), that results in the formation of spatio-temporal patterns. The paper presents a mathematical model, which successfully explains the CBD role in the CSD process. Numerical study of this model has revealed the formation of stationary dissipative structures, visually analogous to Turing structures. However, the mechanism of their formation is not diffusion. We show these structures occur due to another type of spatial coupling, that is related to tissue perfusion rate. The proposed model predicts that at similar state of neurons the distribution of blood flow and oxygenation may by different. Currently, this effect is not taken into account when the Blood oxygen-level dependent (BOLD) contrast imaging used in functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Thus, the diagnosis on the BOLD signal can be ambiguous. We believe that our results can be used in the future for a more correct interpretation of the data obtained with fMRI, NIRS and other similar methods for research of the brain activity.

  20. Prediction of DHF disease spreading patterns using inverse distances weighted (IDW), ordinary and universal kriging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasetiyowati, S. S.; Sibaroni, Y.

    2018-03-01

    Dengue hemorrhagic disease, is a disease caused by the Dengue virus of the Flavivirus genus Flaviviridae family. Indonesia is the country with the highest case of dengue in Southeast Asia. In addition to mosquitoes as vectors and humans as hosts, other environmental and social factors are also the cause of widespread dengue fever. To prevent the occurrence of the epidemic of the disease, fast and accurate action is required. Rapid and accurate action can be taken, if there is appropriate information support on the occurrence of the epidemic. Therefore, a complete and accurate information on the spread pattern of endemic areas is necessary, so that precautions can be done as early as possible. The information on dispersal patterns can be obtained by various methods, which are based on empirical and theoretical considerations. One of the methods used is based on the estimated number of infected patients in a region based on spatial and time. The first step of this research is conducted by predicting the number of DHF patients in 2016 until 2018 based on 2010 to 2015 data using GSTAR (1, 1). In the second phase, the distribution pattern prediction of dengue disease area is conducted. Furthermore, based on the characteristics of DHF epidemic trends, i.e. down, stable or rising, the analysis of distribution patterns of dengue fever distribution areas with IDW and Kriging (ordinary and universal Kriging) were conducted in this study. The difference between IDW and Kriging, is the initial process that underlies the prediction process. Based on the experimental results, it is known that the dispersion pattern of epidemic areas of dengue disease with IDW and Ordinary Kriging is similar in the period of time.

  1. Avian influenza shedding patterns in waterfowl: implications for surveillance, environmental transmission, and disease spread

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henaux, Viviane; Samuel, Michael D.

    2011-01-01

    Despite the recognized importance of fecal/oral transmission of low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) via contaminated wetlands, little is known about the length, quantity, or route of AI virus shed by wild waterfowl. We used published laboratory challenge studies to evaluate the length and quantity of low pathogenic (LP) and highly pathogenic (HP) virus shed via oral and cloacal routes by AI-infected ducks and geese, and how these factors might influence AI epidemiology and virus detection. We used survival analysis to estimate the duration of infection (from virus inoculation to the last day virus was shed) and nonlinear models to evaluate temporal patterns in virus shedding. We found higher mean virus titer and longer median infectious period for LPAI-infected ducks (10–11.5 days in oral and cloacal swabs) than HPAI-infected ducks (5 days) and geese (7.5 days). Based on the median bird infectious dose, we found that environmental contamination is two times higher for LPAI- than HPAI-infectious ducks, which implies that susceptible birds may have a higher probability of infection during LPAI than HPAI outbreaks. Less environmental contamination during the course of infection and previously documented shorter environmental persistence for HPAI than LPAI suggest that the environment is a less favorable reservoir for HPAI. The longer infectious period, higher virus titers, and subclinical infections with LPAI viruses favor the spread of these viruses by migratory birds in comparison to HPAI. Given the lack of detection of HPAI viruses through worldwide surveillance, we suggest monitoring for AI should aim at improving our understanding of AI dynamics (in particular, the role of the environment and immunity) using long-term comprehensive live bird, serologic, and environmental sampling at targeted areas. Our findings on LPAI and HPAI shedding patterns over time provide essential information to parameterize environmental transmission and virus spread in predictive

  2. Definition of spatial patterns of bark beetle Ips typographus (L.) outbreak spreading in Tatra Mountains (Central Europe), using GIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rastislav Jakus; Wojciech Grodzki; Marek Jezik; Marcin Jachym

    2003-01-01

    The spread of bark beetle outbreaks in the Tatra Mountains was explored by using both terrestrial and remote sensing techniques. Both approaches have proven to be useful for studying spatial patterns of bark beetle population dynamics. The terrestrial methods were applied on existing forestry databases. Vegetation change analysis (image differentiation), digital...

  3. Global VDET pattern recognition for ALEPH

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bazarko, Andrew; Pusztaszeri, Jean-Francois; Rensing, Paul E.; Brown, David; Gay, Pascal

    1996-01-01

    With the current reliance on high-precision vertex detectors to provide very accurate information about the primary and secondary vertices in an event, the accuracy and efficiency of the assignment of vertex detectors hits to tracks has become crucial. This paper discusses new software written for ALEPH which attempts to make this assignment in a global manner using interger programming techniques. (author)

  4. Retrospective analysis of EAB spread: understanding the effect of landscape pattern on invasion and propagation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susan J. Crocker; Greg C. Liknes; Dacia M. Meneguzzo

    2011-01-01

    Spread of emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire, EAB) in the United States has been rapid and extensive. Nearly 10 years after its initial detection near Detroit, Michigan, EAB is now found in 15 states spanning a radius greater than 500 miles. While human activity has been central to facilitating the spread of EAB over long distances, the...

  5. Trend patterns in global sea surface temperature

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barbosa, S.M.; Andersen, Ole Baltazar

    2009-01-01

    Isolating long-term trend in sea surface temperature (SST) from El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) variability is fundamental for climate studies. In the present study, trend-empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, a robust space-time method for extracting trend patterns, is applied to iso...

  6. Global variation in elevational diversity patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qinfeng Guo; Douglas A. Kelt; Zhongyu Sun; Hongxiao Liu; Liangjun Hu; Hai Ren; Jun We

    2013-01-01

    While horizontal gradients of biodiversity have been examined extensively in the past, vertical diversity gradients (elevation, water depth) are attracting increasing attention. We compiled data from 443 elevational gradients involving diverse organisms worldwide to investigate how elevational diversity patterns may vary between the Northern and Southern hemispheres...

  7. HANPP Collection: Global Patterns in Net Primary Productivity (NPP)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Global Patterns in Net Primary Productivity (NPP) portion of the Human Appropriation of Net Primary Productivity (HANPP) Collection maps the net amount of solar...

  8. HANPP Collection: Global Patterns in Net Primary Productivity (NPP)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Global Patterns in Net Primary Productivity (NPP) portion of the HANPP Collection maps the net amount of solar energy converted to plant organic matter through...

  9. Spread pattern of the first dengue epidemic in the city of Salvador, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carvalho Marilia S

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The explosive epidemics of dengue that have been occurring in various countries have stimulated investigation into new approaches to improve understanding of the problem and to develop new strategies for controlling the disease. The objective of this study was to evaluate the characteristics of diffusion of the first dengue epidemic that occurred in the city of Salvador in 1995. Methods The epidemiological charts and records of notified cases of dengue in Salvador in 1995 constituted the source of data. The cases of the disease were georeferenced according to census areas (spatial units and epidemiological weeks (temporal unit. Kernel density estimation was used to identify the pattern of spatial diffusion using the R-Project computer software program. Results Of the 2,006 census areas in the city, 1,400 (70% registered cases of dengue in 1995 and the spatial distribution of these records revealed that by the end of 1995 practically the entire city had been affected by the virus, with the largest concentration of cases occurring in the western region, composed of census areas with a high population density and predominantly horizontal residences compared to the eastern region of the city, where there is a predominance of vertical residential buildings. Conclusion The pattern found in this study shows the characteristics of the classic process of spreading by contagion that is common to most infectious diseases. It was possible to identify the epicenter of the epidemic from which centrifugal waves of the disease emanated. Our results suggest that, if a more agile control instrument existed that would be capable of rapidly reducing the vector population within a few days or of raising the group immunity of the population by means of a vaccine, it would theoretically be possible to adopt control actions around the epicenter of the epidemic and consequently reduce the incidence of the disease in the city. This finding emphasizes

  10. Global cancer patterns: causes and prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vineis, Paolo; Wild, Christopher P

    2014-02-08

    Cancer is a global and growing, but not uniform, problem. An increasing proportion of the burden is falling on low-income and middle-income countries because of not only demographic change but also a transition in risk factors, whereby the consequences of the globalisation of economies and behaviours are adding to an existing burden of cancers of infectious origin. We argue that primary prevention is a particularly effective way to fight cancer, with between a third and a half of cancers being preventable on the basis of present knowledge of risk factors. Primary prevention has several advantages: the effectiveness could have benefits for people other than those directly targeted, avoidance of exposure to carcinogenic agents is likely to prevent other non-communicable diseases, and the cause could be removed or reduced in the long term--eg, through regulatory measures against occupational or environmental exposures (ie, the preventive effort does not need to be renewed with every generation, which is especially important when resources are in short supply). Primary prevention must therefore be prioritised as an integral part of global cancer control. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. The global spread of Zika virus: is public and media concern justified in regions currently unaffected?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Narayan Gyawali; Richard S.Bradbury; Andrew W.Taylor-Robinson

    2016-01-01

    Background:Zika virus,an Aedes mosquito-borne flavivirus,is fast becoming a worldwide public health concern following its suspected association with over 4000 recent cases of microcephaly among newborn infants in Brazil.Discussion:Prior to its emergence in Latin America in 2015-2016,Zika was known to exist at a relatively low prevalence in parts of Africa,Asia and the Pacific islands.An extension of its apparent global dispersion may be enabled by climate conditions suitable to support the population growth ofA.aegypti and A.albopictus mosquitoes over an expanding geographical range.In addition,increased globalisation continues to pose a risk for the spread of infection.Further,suspicions of alternative modes of virus transmission (sexual and vertical),if proven,provide a platform for outbreaks in mosquito non-endemic regions as well.Since a vaccine or anti-viral therapy is not yet available,current means of disease prevention involve protection from mosquito bites,excluding pregnant females from travelling to Zika-endemic territories,and practicing safe sex in those countries.Importantly,in countries where Zika is reported as endemic,caution is advised in planning to conceive a baby until such time as the apparent association between infection with the virus and microcephaly is either confirmed or refuted.The question arises as to what advice is appropriate to give in more economically developed countries distant to the current epidemic and in which Zika has not yet been reported.Summary:Despite understandable concern among the general public that has been fuelled by the media,in regions where Zika is not present,such as North America,Europe and Australia,at this time any outbreak (initiated by an infected traveler returning from an endemic area) would very probably be contained locally.Since Aedes spp.has very limited spatial dispersal,overlapping high population densities of mosquitoes and humans would be needed to sustain a focus of infection.However,as A

  12. The global spread of Zika virus: is public and media concern justified in regions currently unaffected?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gyawali, Narayan; Bradbury, Richard S; Taylor-Robinson, Andrew W

    2016-04-19

    Zika virus, an Aedes mosquito-borne flavivirus, is fast becoming a worldwide public health concern following its suspected association with over 4000 recent cases of microcephaly among newborn infants in Brazil. Prior to its emergence in Latin America in 2015-2016, Zika was known to exist at a relatively low prevalence in parts of Africa, Asia and the Pacific islands. An extension of its apparent global dispersion may be enabled by climate conditions suitable to support the population growth of A. aegypti and A. albopictus mosquitoes over an expanding geographical range. In addition, increased globalisation continues to pose a risk for the spread of infection. Further, suspicions of alternative modes of virus transmission (sexual and vertical), if proven, provide a platform for outbreaks in mosquito non-endemic regions as well. Since a vaccine or anti-viral therapy is not yet available, current means of disease prevention involve protection from mosquito bites, excluding pregnant females from travelling to Zika-endemic territories, and practicing safe sex in those countries. Importantly, in countries where Zika is reported as endemic, caution is advised in planning to conceive a baby until such time as the apparent association between infection with the virus and microcephaly is either confirmed or refuted. The question arises as to what advice is appropriate to give in more economically developed countries distant to the current epidemic and in which Zika has not yet been reported. Despite understandable concern among the general public that has been fuelled by the media, in regions where Zika is not present, such as North America, Europe and Australia, at this time any outbreak (initiated by an infected traveler returning from an endemic area) would very probably be contained locally. Since Aedes spp. has very limited spatial dispersal, overlapping high population densities of mosquitoes and humans would be needed to sustain a focus of infection. However, as A

  13. Global patterns in marine predatory fish

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van Denderen, Pieter Daniël; Lindegren, Martin; MacKenzie, Brian

    2017-01-01

    known. Here, we show how latitudinal differences in predatory fish can essentially be explained by the inflow of energy at the base of the pelagic and benthic food chain. A low productive benthic energy pathway favours large pelagic species, whereas equal productivities support large demersal......Large teleost (bony) fish are a dominant group of predators in the oceans and constitute a major source of food and livelihood for humans. These species differ markedly in morphology and feeding habits across oceanic regions; large pelagic species such as tunas and billfish typically occur...... in the tropics, whereas demersal species of gadoids and flatfish dominate boreal and temperate regions. Despite their importance for fisheries and the structuring of marine ecosystems, the underlying factors determining the global distribution and productivity of these two groups of teleost predators are poorly...

  14. Molecular phylogeography of canine distemper virus: Geographic origin and global spreading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panzera, Yanina; Sarute, Nicolás; Iraola, Gregorio; Hernández, Martín; Pérez, Ruben

    2015-11-01

    Canine distemper virus (CDV) (Paramyxoviridae-Morbillivirus) is a worldwide spread virus causing a fatal systemic disease in a broad range of carnivore hosts. In this study we performed Bayesian inferences using 208 full-length hemagglutinin gene nucleotide sequences isolated in 16 countries during 37 years (1975-2011). The estimated time to the most recent common ancestor suggested that current CDV strains emerged in the United States in the 1880s. This ancestor diversified through time into two ancestral clades, the current America 1 lineage that recently spread to Asia, and other ancestral clade that diversified and spread worldwide to originate the remaining eight lineages characterized to date. The spreading of CDV was characterized by several migratory events with posterior local differentiation, and expansion of the virus host range. A significant genetic flow between domestic and wildlife hosts is displayed; being domestic hosts the main viral reservoirs worldwide. This study is an extensive and integrative description of spatio/temporal population dynamics of CDV lineages that provides a novel evolutionary paradigm about the origin and dissemination of the current strains of the virus. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Population-level genomics identifies the emergence and global spread of a human transmissible multidrug-resistant nontuberculous mycobacterium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez-Rincon, Daniela; Everall, Isobel; Brown, Karen P; Moreno, Pablo; Verma, Deepshikha; Hill, Emily; Drijkoningen, Judith; Gilligan, Peter; Esther, Charles R; Noone, Peadar G; Giddings, Olivia; Bell, Scott C.; Thomson, Rachel; Wainwright, Claire E.; Coulter, Chris; Pandey, Sushil; Wood, Michelle E; Stockwell, Rebecca E; Ramsay, Kay A; Sherrard, Laura J; Kidd, Timothy J; Jabbour, Nassib; Johnson, Graham R; Knibbs, Luke D; Morawska, Lidia; Sly, Peter D; Jones, Andrew; Bilton, Diana; Laurenson, Ian; Ruddy, Michael; Bourke, Stephen; Bowler, Ian CJW; Chapman, Stephen J; Clayton, Andrew; Cullen, Mairi; Daniels, Thomas; Dempsey, Owen; Denton, Miles; Desai, Maya; Drew, Richard J; Edenborough, Frank; Evans, Jason; Folb, Jonathan; Humphrey, Helen; Isalska, Barbara; Jensen-Fangel, Søren; Jönsson, Bodil; Jones, Andrew M.; Katzenstein, Terese L; Lillebaek, Troels; MacGregor, Gordon; Mayell, Sarah; Millar, Michael; Modha, Deborah; Nash, Edward F; O’Brien, Christopher; O’Brien, Deirdre; Ohri, Chandra; Pao, Caroline S; Peckham, Daniel; Perrin, Felicity; Perry, Audrey; Pressler, Tania; Prtak, Laura; Qvist, Tavs; Robb, Ali; Rodgers, Helen; Schaffer, Kirsten; Shafi, Nadia; van Ingen, Jakko; Walshaw, Martin; Watson, Danie; West, Noreen; Whitehouse, Joanna; Haworth, Charles S; Harris, Simon R; Ordway, Diane; Parkhill, Julian; Floto, R. Andres

    2016-01-01

    Lung infections with Mycobacterium abscessus, a species of multidrug resistant nontuberculous mycobacteria, are emerging as an important global threat to individuals with cystic fibrosis (CF) where they accelerate inflammatory lung damage leading to increased morbidity and mortality. Previously, M. abscessus was thought to be independently acquired by susceptible individuals from the environment. However, using whole genome analysis of a global collection of clinical isolates, we show that the majority of M. abscessus infections are acquired through transmission, potentially via fomites and aerosols, of recently emerged dominant circulating clones that have spread globally. We demonstrate that these clones are associated with worse clinical outcomes, show increased virulence in cell-based and mouse infection models, and thus represent an urgent international infection challenge. PMID:27846606

  16. Global patterns of fragmentation and connectivity of mammalian carnivore habitat

    OpenAIRE

    Crooks, Kevin R.; Burdett, Christopher L.; Theobald, David M.; Rondinini, Carlo; Boitani, Luigi

    2011-01-01

    Although mammalian carnivores are vulnerable to habitat fragmentation and require landscape connectivity, their global patterns of fragmentation and connectivity have not been examined. We use recently developed high-resolution habitat suitability models to conduct comparative analyses and to identify global hotspots of fragmentation and connectivity for the world's terrestrial carnivores. Species with less fragmentation (i.e. more interior high-quality habitat) had larger geographical ranges...

  17. Analytical solution of a stochastic model of risk spreading with global coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morita, Satoru; Yoshimura, Jin

    2013-11-01

    We study a stochastic matrix model to understand the mechanics of risk spreading (or bet hedging) by dispersion. Up to now, this model has been mostly dealt with numerically, except for the well-mixed case. Here, we present an analytical result that shows that optimal dispersion leads to Zipf's law. Moreover, we found that the arithmetic ensemble average of the total growth rate converges to the geometric one, because the sample size is finite.

  18. Spread of endemic disease and global change in an educational project: proposition of relationships developed in a twin partnership

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michela Viale

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The sudden event of the spread of dengue fever (or break-bone fever that appeared for the first time in Cape Verde in 2009 revealed that inappropriate management of waste can be considered a major cause of the spread of this disease. Dengue fever is a tropical infectious disease that is caused by the dengue virus. Its vector, the mosquito Aedes aegypti, found an optimal environment for its life cycle in the context of Cape Verde, with the persistence of water in abandoned waste objects. The connection between the topics of Earth sciences and the spread of this disease is not obvious, but it was explored and illustrated in a school partnership. Activities with pupils and students provided an opportunity to investigate how some global phenomena, like climate change (with an increase in local rainfall and higher temperatures, are related to local events, such as the spread of dengue fever. Preventive strategies are conditioned by the geomorphology of the territory and by the complex relationships that connect the geosphere and the biosphere. For this reason, it is important to be aware of the risk of breaking these delicate balances, and hence activating unexpected consequences. The roles played by both partners linked knowledge about the natural dynamics of our planet with the development of appropriate behavior, thus contributing to the formation of responsible citizenship, to preserve and protect the environment. The partnership encouraged students to develop sustainable management strategies against dengue fever, and consequently against waste, actively involving them at school, at home, and in their community. In this study, we present a case study of the role of a school partnership in a complex problem, such as the spread of dengue fever and environmental pollution.

  19. Analysis of Roanoke Region Weather Patterns Under Global Teleconnections

    OpenAIRE

    LaRocque, Eric John

    2006-01-01

    This work attempts to relate global teleconnections, through physical phenomena such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Artic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern to synoptic-scale weather patterns and precipitation in the Roanoke, Virginia region. The first chapter describes the behavior of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by implementing non-homogeneous and homogeneous Markov Chain models on a monthly time series o...

  20. Modelling Global Pattern Formations for Collaborative Learning Environments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grappiolo, Corrado; Cheong, Yun-Gyung; Khaled, Rilla

    2012-01-01

    We present our research towards the design of a computational framework capable of modelling the formation and evolution of global patterns (i.e. group structures) in a population of social individuals. The framework is intended to be used in collaborative environments, e.g. social serious games...

  1. Food, Populations and Health — global Patterns and Challenges

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2016-01-01

    The present volume is based on presentations at a symposium at the Royal Danish Academy of Sciences and Letters in September 2014 with the title Food, Population and Health – global Patterns and Challenges. Food has played a fundamental role in the history of all societies over the World. Availab...

  2. Transmission loss patterns from acoustic harassment and deterrent devices do not always follow geometrical spreading predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shapiro, A.D.; Tougaard, J.; Jørgensen, P.B.

    2009-01-01

    and cylindrical spreading models and conflicted with the classic concept of concentric zones of increasing disturbance with decreasing range. Under such conditions, animals may encounter difficulties when trying to determine the direction to and location of a sound source, which may complicate or jeopardize...... level for all sources in each of the environments. This variability was likely caused by source directionality, inter-ping source level variation and multipath interference. Rapid and unpredictable variations in the sound level as a function of range deviated from expectations derived from spherical...

  3. Global patterns in mangrove soil carbon stocks and losses

    KAUST Repository

    Atwood, Trisha B.

    2017-06-26

    Mangrove soils represent a large sink for otherwise rapidly recycled carbon (C). However, widespread deforestation threatens the preservation of this important C stock. It is therefore imperative that global patterns in mangrove soil C stocks and their susceptibility to remineralization are understood. Here, we present patterns in mangrove soil C stocks across hemispheres, latitudes, countries and mangrove community compositions, and estimate potential annual CO2 emissions for countries where mangroves occur. Global potential CO2 emissions from soils as a result of mangrove loss were estimated to be ~7.0 Tg CO2e yr−1. Countries with the highest potential CO2 emissions from soils are Indonesia (3,410 Gg CO2e yr−1) and Malaysia (1,288 Gg CO2e yr−1). The patterns described serve as a baseline by which countries can assess their mangrove soil C stocks and potential emissions from mangrove deforestation.

  4. Global patterns of phytoplankton dynamics in coastal ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paerl, H.; Yin, Kedong; Cloern, J.

    2011-01-01

    Scientific Committee on Ocean Research Working Group 137 Meeting; Hangzhou, China, 17-21 October 2010; Phytoplankton biomass and community structure have undergone dramatic changes in coastal ecosystems over the past several decades in response to climate variability and human disturbance. These changes have short- and long-term impacts on global carbon and nutrient cycling, food web structure and productivity, and coastal ecosystem services. There is a need to identify the underlying processes and measure the rates at which they alter coastal ecosystems on a global scale. Hence, the Scientific Committee on Ocean Research (SCOR) formed Working Group 137 (WG 137), "Global Patterns of Phytoplankton Dynamics in Coastal Ecosystems: A Comparative Analysis of Time Series Observations" (http://wg137.net/). This group evolved from a 2007 AGU-sponsored Chapman Conference entitled "Long Time-Series Observations in Coastal Ecosystems: Comparative Analyses of Phytoplankton Dynamics on Regional to Global Scales.".

  5. Identification of global oil trade patterns: An empirical research based on complex network theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ji, Qiang; Zhang, Hai-Ying; Fan, Ying

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A global oil trade core network is analyzed using complex network theory. • The global oil export core network displays a scale-free behaviour. • The current global oil trade network can be divided into three trading blocs. • The global oil trade network presents a ‘robust and yet fragile’ characteristic. - Abstract: The Global oil trade pattern becomes increasingly complex, which has become one of the most important factors affecting every country’s energy strategy and economic development. In this paper, a global oil trade core network is constructed to analyze the overall features, regional characteristics and stability of the oil trade using complex network theory. The results indicate that the global oil export core network displays a scale-free behaviour, in which the trade position of nodes presents obvious heterogeneity and the ‘hub nodes’ play a ‘bridge’ role in the formation process of the trade network. The current global oil trade network can be divided into three trading blocs, including the ‘South America-West Africa-North America’ trading bloc, the ‘Middle East–Asian–Pacific region’ trading bloc, and ‘the former Soviet Union–North Africa–Europe’ trading bloc. Geopolitics and diplomatic relations are the two main reasons for this regional oil trade structure. Moreover, the global oil trade network presents a ‘robust but yet fragile’ characteristic, and the impacts of trade interruption always tend to spread throughout the whole network even if the occurrence of export disruptions is localised

  6. Bifurcation and spatial pattern formation in spreading of disease with incubation period in a phytoplankton dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Randhir Singh Baghel

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available In this article, we propose a three dimensional mathematical model of phytoplankton dynamics with the help of reaction-diffusion equations that studies the bifurcation and pattern formation mechanism. We provide an analytical explanation for understanding phytoplankton dynamics with three population classes: susceptible, incubated, and infected. This model has a Holling type II response function for the population transformation from susceptible to incubated class in an aquatic ecosystem. Our main goal is to provide a qualitative analysis of Hopf bifurcation mechanisms, taking death rate of infected phytoplankton as bifurcation parameter, and to study further spatial patterns formation due to spatial diffusion. Here analytical findings are supported by the results of numerical experiments. It is observed that the coexistence of all classes of population depends on the rate of diffusion. Also we obtained the time evaluation pattern formation of the spatial system.

  7. Geographical spread of global emissions: Within-country inequalities are large and increasing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sauter, Caspar; Grether, Jean-Marie; Mathys, Nicole A.

    2016-01-01

    In spite of the extensive literature on greenhouse gas emission inequalities at the world-wide level, most of the evidence so far has been based on country-level data. However, the within-country dimension matters for both the implementation and the policy formation of climate policies. As a preliminary step towards a better understanding of within-country inequalities, this paper measures their extent for the two major greenhouse gases, CO_2 and CH_4, over the 1970–2008 period. Using Theil-index decompositions, we show that within-country inequalities account for the bulk of global inequality, and tend to increase over the sample period, in contrast with diminishing between-country inequalities. Including differences across sectors reveals that between-sector inequalities matter more than between-country inequalities, and between-sector inequalities become the dominant source of global inequality at the end of the sample period in the CO_2 case. Finally, estimated social tensions arising from the disconnection between emissions and future damages turn out to be increasing as soon as within-country disparities are taken into account. These orders of magnitude should be kept in mind while discussing the efficiency and fairness of alternative paths in combating global warming. - Highlights: • We estimate global spatial CO_2 and CH_4 inequality using grid data for 1970–2008. • Overall spatial emission inequality is constant for CO_2 and increasing for CH_4. • Within-country inequality is rising and constitutes the main bulk of overall inequality. • An important part of within country inequality is due to differences among sectors. • The gap between emitters and victims is rising within countries.

  8. The birth and spread of IWRM - A case study of global policy diffusion and translation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeremy Allouche

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available How did the idea of IWRM emerge at the global level? Why has IWRM become so popular and so resilient, at least in discourse and policy? What has caused IWRM policies to diffuse across time and space? The principal goal of this article is to identify a set of concepts and mechanisms to study the global diffusion and translation of IWRM through coercion, cooperation, or learning from the ground. The article will also highlight the extent to which this global diffusion was contested and translated into different meanings in terms of policy orientation. Overall, IWRM was a mindset of a particular period where the water policy paradigm was evolving in the same direction as sustainable development and other related paradigms in a post-Rio moment. There were no clear alternatives at the time but now IWRM is being questioned. This IWRM fatigue is leading to other framings and discourses around the water-food-energy nexus and the green economy.

  9. Searching for Grendel: origin and global spread of the C9ORF72 repeat expansion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pliner, Hannah A; Mann, David M; Traynor, Bryan J

    2014-03-01

    Recent advances are uncovering more and more of the genetic architecture underlying amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), a fatal neurodegenerative condition that affects ~6,000 Americans annually. Chief among these was the discovery that a large repeat expansion in the C9ORF72 gene is responsible for an unprecedented portion of familial and sporadic ALS cases. Much has been published on how this expansion disrupts neuronal homeostasis and how gene-based therapy might be an effective treatment in the future. Nevertheless, it is instructive to look back at the origins of this important mutation. In this opinion piece, we attempt to answer three key questions concerning C9ORF72. First, how many times did the expansion occur throughout human history? Second, how old is the expansion? And finally and perhaps most importantly, how did the expansion spread throughout Europe? We speculate that the expansion occurred only once in the past, that this event took place in the Finnish population and that the Vikings and their descendants were responsible for disseminating this mutation throughout the rest of the continent.

  10. Metastatic spread pattern after curative colorectal cancer surgery. A retrospective, longitudinal analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Augestad, K M; Bakaki, P M; Rose, J; Crawshaw, B P; Lindsetmo, R O; Dørum, L M; Koroukian, S M; Delaney, C P

    2015-10-01

    The most common sites of colorectal cancer (CRC) recurrence are the local tissues, liver or lungs. The objective was to identify risk factors associated with the primary CRC tumor and cancer recurrence in these anatomical sites. Retrospective, longitudinal analyses of data on CRC survivors. Multivariable Cox regression analysis was performed to examine the association between possible cofounders with recurrence to various anatomical sites. Data for 10,398CRC survivors (tumor location right colon=3870, left colon=2898, high rectum=2569, low rectum=1061) were analyzed; follow up time was up to five years. Mean age at curative surgery was 71.5 (SD 11.8) years, 20.2% received radio-chemotherapy, stage T3 (64.4%) and N0 (65.1%) were most common. Overall 1632 (15.7%) had cancer recurrence (Isolated liver n=412, 3,8%;  isolated lung n=252, 2,4%; isolated local n=223, 2.1%). Risk factors associated with recurrent CRC were identified, i.e. isolated liver metastases (male: Adjusted Hazard Ratio (AHR) 1,45; colon left: AHR 1,63; N2 disease: AHR 3,35; T2 disease: AHR 2,82), isolated lung metastases (colon left: AHR 1,53; rectum high: AHR 2,48; rectum low: AHR 2,65; N2 disease 3,76), and local recurrence (glands examined<12: AHR 1,51; CRM <3mm: AHR 1,60; rectum high: AHR 2,15; N2 disease: AHR 2,58) (all p values <0001). Our study finds that the site of the primary CRC tumor is associated with location of subsequent metastasis. Left sided colon cancers have increased risk of metastatic spread to the liver, whereas rectal cancers have increased risk of local recurrence and metastatic spread to the lungs. These results, in combination with other risk factors for CRC recurrence, should be taken into consideration when designing risk adapted post-treatment CRC surveillance programs. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  11. Social Contacts and Mixing Patterns Relevant to the Spread of Infectious Diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mossong, Joël; Hens, Niel; Jit, Mark; Beutels, Philippe; Auranen, Kari; Mikolajczyk, Rafael; Massari, Marco; Salmaso, Stefania; Tomba, Gianpaolo Scalia; Wallinga, Jacco; Heijne, Janneke; Sadkowska-Todys, Malgorzata; Rosinska, Magdalena; Edmunds, W. John

    2008-01-01

    Background Mathematical modelling of infectious diseases transmitted by the respiratory or close-contact route (e.g., pandemic influenza) is increasingly being used to determine the impact of possible interventions. Although mixing patterns are known to be crucial determinants for model outcome, researchers often rely on a priori contact assumptions with little or no empirical basis. We conducted a population-based prospective survey of mixing patterns in eight European countries using a common paper-diary methodology. Methods and Findings 7,290 participants recorded characteristics of 97,904 contacts with different individuals during one day, including age, sex, location, duration, frequency, and occurrence of physical contact. We found that mixing patterns and contact characteristics were remarkably similar across different European countries. Contact patterns were highly assortative with age: schoolchildren and young adults in particular tended to mix with people of the same age. Contacts lasting at least one hour or occurring on a daily basis mostly involved physical contact, while short duration and infrequent contacts tended to be nonphysical. Contacts at home, school, or leisure were more likely to be physical than contacts at the workplace or while travelling. Preliminary modelling indicates that 5- to 19-year-olds are expected to suffer the highest incidence during the initial epidemic phase of an emerging infection transmitted through social contacts measured here when the population is completely susceptible. Conclusions To our knowledge, our study provides the first large-scale quantitative approach to contact patterns relevant for infections transmitted by the respiratory or close-contact route, and the results should lead to improved parameterisation of mathematical models used to design control strategies. PMID:18366252

  12. Global patterns in mangrove soil carbon stocks and losses

    KAUST Repository

    Atwood, Trisha B.; Connolly, Rod M.; Almahasheer, Hanan; Carnell, Paul E.; Duarte, Carlos M.; Ewers Lewis, Carolyn J.; Irigoien, Xabier; Kelleway, Jeffrey J.; Lavery, Paul S.; Macreadie, Peter I.; Serrano, Oscar; Sanders, Christian J.; Santos, Isaac; Steven, Andrew D. L.; Lovelock, Catherine E.

    2017-01-01

    . Global potential CO2 emissions from soils as a result of mangrove loss were estimated to be ~7.0 Tg CO2e yr−1. Countries with the highest potential CO2 emissions from soils are Indonesia (3,410 Gg CO2e yr−1) and Malaysia (1,288 Gg CO2e yr−1). The patterns

  13. Global patterns of renewable energy innovation, 1990–2009

    OpenAIRE

    Bayer, Patrick; Dolan, Lindsay; Urpelainen, Johannes

    2013-01-01

    Cost-effective approaches to mitigating climate change depend on advances in clean energy technologies, such as solar and wind power. Given increased technology innovation in developing countries, led by China, we focus our attention on global patterns of renewable energy innovation. Utilizing highly valuable international patents as our indicator of innovation, we examine the economic and political determinants of energy innovation in 74 countries across the world, 1990–2009. We find that hi...

  14. Glial tumors in brodmann area 6: spread pattern and relationships to motor areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, Komal B; Hayman, L Anne; Chavali, Lakshmi S; Hamilton, Jackson D; Prabhu, Sujit S; Wangaryattawanich, Pattana; Kumar, Vinodh A; Kumar, Ashok J

    2015-01-01

    The posterior frontal lobe of the brain houses Brodmann area 4, which is the primary motor cortex, and Brodmann area 6, which consists of the supplementary motor area on the medial portion of the hemisphere and the premotor cortex on the lateral portion. In this area, safe resection is dependent on accurate localization of the motor cortex and the central sulcus, which can usually be achieved by using thin-section imaging and confirmed by using other techniques. The most reliable anatomic landmarks are the "hand knob" area and the marginal ramus of the cingulate sulcus. Postoperatively, motor deficits can occur not only because of injury to primary motor cortex but also because of injury to the supplementary motor area. Unlike motor cortex injury, the supplementary motor area syndrome is transient, if it occurs at all. On the lateral hemisphere, motor and language deficits can also occur because of premotor cortex injury, but a dense motor deficit would indicate subcortical injury to the corticospinal tract. The close relationship of the subcortical motor fibers and premotor cortex is illustrated. In contrast to the more constant landmarks of the central sulcus and marginal ramus, which aid in preoperative localization, the variable interruptions in the precentral and cingulate sulci of the posterior frontal lobe seem to provide "cortical bridges" for spread of infiltrating gliomas. (©)RSNA, 2015.

  15. What drives the formation of global oil trade patterns?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Hai-Ying; Ji, Qiang; Fan, Ying

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, the spatial characteristics of current global oil trade patterns are investigated by proposing a new indicator Moran-F. Meanwhile, the factors that influence the formation of oil trade patterns are identified by constructing four different kinds of spatial econometric models. The findings indicate that most oil exporters have an obvious export focus in North America and a relatively balanced export in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region. Besides supply and demand factors, technological progress and energy efficiency have also significantly influenced the oil trade. Moreover, there is a spillover effect of trade flow among different regions, but its impact is weak. In addition, oil importers in the same region have the potential to cooperate due to their similar import sources. Finally, promotion of oil importers' R&D investments can effectively reduce the demand for global oil trade. - Highlights: • A new spatial association Moran-F indicator that applies to trade flows is proposed. • Driving factors affecting the formation of oil trade patterns are identified. • Oil-exporting countries implement various export strategies in different regions. • Supply, demand and technological factors contribute to the oil trade patterns. • Spillover effect of each factor affecting oil trade flows does exist but is limited

  16. Endemic versus epidemic viral spreads display distinct patterns of HTLV-2b replication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gabet, Anne-Sophie; Moules, Vincent; Sibon, David; Nass, Catharie C.; Mortreux, Franck; Mauclere, Philippe; Gessain, Antoine; Murphy, Edward L.; Wattel, Eric

    2006-01-01

    As the replication pattern of leukemogenic PTLVs possesses a strong pathogenic impact, we investigated HTLV-2 replication in vivo in asymptomatic carriers belonging into 2 distinct populations infected by the same HTLV-2b subtype. They include epidemically infected American blood donors, in whom HTLV-2b has been present for only 30 years, and endemically infected Bakola Pygmies from Cameroon, characterized by a long viral endemicity (at least few generations). In blood donors, both the circulating proviral loads and the degree of infected cell proliferation were largely lower than those characterizing asymptomatic carriers infected with leukemogenic PTLVs (HTLV-1, STLV-1). This might contribute to explain the lack of known link between HTLV-2b infection and the development of malignancies in this population. In contrast, endemically infected individuals displayed high proviral loads resulting from the extensive proliferation of infected cells. The route and/or the duration of infection, viral genetic drift, host immune response, genetic background, co-infections or a combination thereof might have contributed to these differences between endemically and epidemically infected subjects. As the clonality pattern observed in endemically infected individuals is very reminiscent of that of leukemogenic PTLVs at the pre-leukemic stage, our results highlight the possible oncogenic effect of HTLV-2b infection in such population

  17. Neural Global Pattern Similarity Underlies True and False Memories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Zhifang; Zhu, Bi; Zhuang, Liping; Lu, Zhonglin; Chen, Chuansheng; Xue, Gui

    2016-06-22

    The neural processes giving rise to human memory strength signals remain poorly understood. Inspired by formal computational models that posit a central role of global matching in memory strength, we tested a novel hypothesis that the strengths of both true and false memories arise from the global similarity of an item's neural activation pattern during retrieval to that of all the studied items during encoding (i.e., the encoding-retrieval neural global pattern similarity [ER-nGPS]). We revealed multiple ER-nGPS signals that carried distinct information and contributed differentially to true and false memories: Whereas the ER-nGPS in the parietal regions reflected semantic similarity and was scaled with the recognition strengths of both true and false memories, ER-nGPS in the visual cortex contributed solely to true memory. Moreover, ER-nGPS differences between the parietal and visual cortices were correlated with frontal monitoring processes. By combining computational and neuroimaging approaches, our results advance a mechanistic understanding of memory strength in recognition. What neural processes give rise to memory strength signals, and lead to our conscious feelings of familiarity? Using fMRI, we found that the memory strength of a given item depends not only on how it was encoded during learning, but also on the similarity of its neural representation with other studied items. The global neural matching signal, mainly in the parietal lobule, could account for the memory strengths of both studied and unstudied items. Interestingly, a different global matching signal, originated from the visual cortex, could distinguish true from false memories. The findings reveal multiple neural mechanisms underlying the memory strengths of events registered in the brain. Copyright © 2016 the authors 0270-6474/16/366792-11$15.00/0.

  18. The GLEaMviz computational tool, a publicly available software to explore realistic epidemic spreading scenarios at the global scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Quaggiotto Marco

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Computational models play an increasingly important role in the assessment and control of public health crises, as demonstrated during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Much research has been done in recent years in the development of sophisticated data-driven models for realistic computer-based simulations of infectious disease spreading. However, only a few computational tools are presently available for assessing scenarios, predicting epidemic evolutions, and managing health emergencies that can benefit a broad audience of users including policy makers and health institutions. Results We present "GLEaMviz", a publicly available software system that simulates the spread of emerging human-to-human infectious diseases across the world. The GLEaMviz tool comprises three components: the client application, the proxy middleware, and the simulation engine. The latter two components constitute the GLEaMviz server. The simulation engine leverages on the Global Epidemic and Mobility (GLEaM framework, a stochastic computational scheme that integrates worldwide high-resolution demographic and mobility data to simulate disease spread on the global scale. The GLEaMviz design aims at maximizing flexibility in defining the disease compartmental model and configuring the simulation scenario; it allows the user to set a variety of parameters including: compartment-specific features, transition values, and environmental effects. The output is a dynamic map and a corresponding set of charts that quantitatively describe the geo-temporal evolution of the disease. The software is designed as a client-server system. The multi-platform client, which can be installed on the user's local machine, is used to set up simulations that will be executed on the server, thus avoiding specific requirements for large computational capabilities on the user side. Conclusions The user-friendly graphical interface of the GLEaMviz tool, along with its high level

  19. How reproductive ecology contributes to the spread of a globally invasive fish.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amy E Deacon

    Full Text Available Invasive freshwater fish represent a major threat to biodiversity. Here, we first demonstrate the dramatic, human-mediated range expansion of the Trinidadian guppy (Poecilia reticulata, an invasive fish with a reputation for negatively impacting native freshwater communities. Next, we explore possible mechanisms that might explain successful global establishment of this species. Guppies, along with some other notable invasive fish species such as mosquitofish (Gambusia spp., have reproductive adaptations to ephemeral habitats that may enable introductions of very small numbers of founders to succeed. The remarkable ability of single pregnant guppies to routinely establish viable populations is demonstrated using a replicated mesocosm set up. In 86% of cases, these populations persisted for two years (the duration of the experiment. Establishment success was independent of founder origin (high and low predation habitats, and there was no loss of behavioural performance amongst mesocosm juveniles. Behavioural "signatures" of the founding locality were, however, evident in mesocosm fish. Our results demonstrate that introductions consisting of a single individual can lead to thriving populations of this invasive fish and suggest that particular caution should be exercised when introducing this species, or other livebearers, to natural water bodies.

  20. Information spreading dynamics in hypernetworks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suo, Qi; Guo, Jin-Li; Shen, Ai-Zhong

    2018-04-01

    Contact pattern and spreading strategy fundamentally influence the spread of information. Current mathematical methods largely assume that contacts between individuals are fixed by networks. In fact, individuals are affected by all his/her neighbors in different social relationships. Here, we develop a mathematical approach to depict the information spreading process in hypernetworks. Each individual is viewed as a node, and each social relationship containing the individual is viewed as a hyperedge. Based on SIS epidemic model, we construct two spreading models. One model is based on global transmission, corresponding to RP strategy. The other is based on local transmission, corresponding to CP strategy. These models can degenerate into complex network models with a special parameter. Thus hypernetwork models extend the traditional models and are more realistic. Further, we discuss the impact of parameters including structure parameters of hypernetwork, spreading rate, recovering rate as well as information seed on the models. Propagation time and density of informed nodes can reveal the overall trend of information dissemination. Comparing these two models, we find out that there is no spreading threshold in RP, while there exists a spreading threshold in CP. The RP strategy induces a broader and faster information spreading process under the same parameters.

  1. Spread of carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii global clone 2 in Asia and AbaR-type resistance islands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Dae Hun; Choi, Ji-Young; Kim, Hae Won; Kim, So Hyun; Chung, Doo Ryeon; Peck, Kyong Ran; Thamlikitkul, Visanu; So, Thomas Man-Kit; Yasin, Rohani M D; Hsueh, Po-Ren; Carlos, Celia C; Hsu, Li Yang; Buntaran, Latre; Lalitha, M K; Song, Jae-Hoon; Ko, Kwan Soo

    2013-11-01

    In this surveillance study, we identified the genotypes, carbapenem resistance determinants, and structural variations of AbaR-type resistance islands among carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii (CRAB) isolates from nine Asian locales. Clonal complex 92 (CC92), corresponding to global clone 2 (GC2), was the most prevalent in most Asian locales (83/108 isolates; 76.9%). CC108, or GC1, was a predominant clone in India. OXA-23 oxacillinase was detected in CRAB isolates from most Asian locales except Taiwan. blaOXA-24 was found in CRAB isolates from Taiwan. AbaR4-type resistance islands, which were divided into six subtypes, were identified in most CRAB isolates investigated. Five isolates from India, Malaysia, Singapore, and Hong Kong contained AbaR3-type resistance islands. Of these, three isolates harbored both AbaR3- and AbaR4-type resistance islands simultaneously. In this study, GC2 was revealed as a prevalent clone in most Asian locales, with the AbaR4-type resistance island predominant, with diverse variants. The significance of this study lies in identifying the spread of global clones of carbapenem-resistant A. baumannii in Asia.

  2. Global Patterns in the Implementation of Payments for Environmental Services.

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    Driss Ezzine-de-Blas

    Full Text Available Assessing global tendencies and impacts of conditional payments for environmental services (PES programs is challenging because of their heterogeneity, and scarcity of comparative studies. This meta-study systematizes 55 PES schemes worldwide in a quantitative database. Using categorical principal component analysis to highlight clustering patterns, we reconfirm frequently hypothesized differences between public and private PES schemes, but also identify diverging patterns between commercial and non-commercial private PES vis-à-vis their service focus, area size, and market orientation. When do these PES schemes likely achieve significant environmental additionality? Using binary logistical regression, we find additionality to be positively influenced by three theoretically recommended PES 'best design' features: spatial targeting, payment differentiation, and strong conditionality, alongside some contextual controls (activity paid for and implementation time elapsed. Our results thus stress the preeminence of customized design over operational characteristics when assessing what determines the outcomes of PES implementation.

  3. The Vein Patterning 1 (VEP1 gene family laterally spread through an ecological network.

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    Rosa Tarrío

    Full Text Available Lateral gene transfer (LGT is a major evolutionary mechanism in prokaryotes. Knowledge about LGT--particularly, multicellular--eukaryotes has only recently started to accumulate. A widespread assumption sees the gene as the unit of LGT, largely because little is yet known about how LGT chances are affected by structural/functional features at the subgenic level. Here we trace the evolutionary trajectory of VEin Patterning 1, a novel gene family known to be essential for plant development and defense. At the subgenic level VEP1 encodes a dinucleotide-binding Rossmann-fold domain, in common with members of the short-chain dehydrogenase/reductase (SDR protein family. We found: i VEP1 likely originated in an aerobic, mesophilic and chemoorganotrophic α-proteobacterium, and was laterally propagated through nets of ecological interactions, including multiple LGTs between phylogenetically distant green plant/fungi-associated bacteria, and five independent LGTs to eukaryotes. Of these latest five transfers, three are ancient LGTs, implicating an ancestral fungus, the last common ancestor of land plants and an ancestral trebouxiophyte green alga, and two are recent LGTs to modern embryophytes. ii VEP1's rampant LGT behavior was enabled by the robustness and broad utility of the dinucleotide-binding Rossmann-fold, which provided a platform for the evolution of two unprecedented departures from the canonical SDR catalytic triad. iii The fate of VEP1 in eukaryotes has been different in different lineages, being ubiquitous and highly conserved in land plants, whereas fungi underwent multiple losses. And iv VEP1-harboring bacteria include non-phytopathogenic and phytopathogenic symbionts which are non-randomly distributed with respect to the type of harbored VEP1 gene. Our findings suggest that VEP1 may have been instrumental for the evolutionary transition of green plants to land, and point to a LGT-mediated 'Trojan Horse' mechanism for the evolution of

  4. Global spread of mouse-adapted Staphylococcus aureus lineages CC1, CC15, and CC88 among mouse breeding facilities.

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    Mrochen, Daniel M; Grumann, Dorothee; Schulz, Daniel; Gumz, Janine; Trübe, Patricia; Pritchett-Corning, Kathleen; Johnson, Sarah; Nicklas, Werner; Kirsch, Petra; Martelet, Karine; Brandt, Jens van den; Berg, Sabine; Bröker, Barbara M; Wiles, Siouxsie; Holtfreter, Silva

    2017-11-20

    We previously reported that laboratory mice from all global vendors are frequently colonized with Staphylococcus aureus (S. aureus). Genotyping of a snap sample of murine S. aureus isolates from Charles River, US, showed that mice were predominantly colonized with methicillin-sensitive CC88 strains. Here, we expanded our view and investigated whether laboratory mice from other global animal facilities are colonized with similar strains or novel S. aureus lineages, and whether the murine S. aureus isolates show features of host adaptation. In total, we genotyped 230 S. aureus isolates from various vendor facilities of laboratory mice around the globe (Charles River facilities in the USA, Canada, France, and Germany; another US facility) and university- or company-associated breeding facilities in Germany, China and New Zealand. Spa typing was performed to analyse the clonal relationship of the isolates. Moreover, multiplex PCRs were performed for human-specific virulence factors, the immune-evasion cluster (IEC) and superantigen genes (SAg). We found a total of 58 different spa types that clustered into 15 clonal complexes (CCs). Three of these S. aureus lineages had spread globally among laboratory mice and accounted for three quarters of the isolates: CC1 (13.5%), CC15 (14.3%), and CC88 (47.0%). Compared to human colonizing isolates of the same lineages, the murine isolates frequently lacked IEC genes and SAg genes on mobile genetic elements, implying long-term adaptation to the murine host. In conclusion, laboratory mice from various vendors are colonized with host-adapted S. aureus-strains of a few lineages, predominantly the CC88 lineage. S. aureus researchers must be cautioned that S. aureus colonization might be a relevant confounder in infection and vaccination studies and are therefore advised to screen their mice before experimentation. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier GmbH.. All rights reserved.

  5. Real-time numerical forecast of global epidemic spreading: case study of 2009 A/H1N1pdm

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    Tizzoni Michele

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Mathematical and computational models for infectious diseases are increasingly used to support public-health decisions; however, their reliability is currently under debate. Real-time forecasts of epidemic spread using data-driven models have been hindered by the technical challenges posed by parameter estimation and validation. Data gathered for the 2009 H1N1 influenza crisis represent an unprecedented opportunity to validate real-time model predictions and define the main success criteria for different approaches. Methods We used the Global Epidemic and Mobility Model to generate stochastic simulations of epidemic spread worldwide, yielding (among other measures the incidence and seeding events at a daily resolution for 3,362 subpopulations in 220 countries. Using a Monte Carlo Maximum Likelihood analysis, the model provided an estimate of the seasonal transmission potential during the early phase of the H1N1 pandemic and generated ensemble forecasts for the activity peaks in the northern hemisphere in the fall/winter wave. These results were validated against the real-life surveillance data collected in 48 countries, and their robustness assessed by focusing on 1 the peak timing of the pandemic; 2 the level of spatial resolution allowed by the model; and 3 the clinical attack rate and the effectiveness of the vaccine. In addition, we studied the effect of data incompleteness on the prediction reliability. Results Real-time predictions of the peak timing are found to be in good agreement with the empirical data, showing strong robustness to data that may not be accessible in real time (such as pre-exposure immunity and adherence to vaccination campaigns, but that affect the predictions for the attack rates. The timing and spatial unfolding of the pandemic are critically sensitive to the level of mobility data integrated into the model. Conclusions Our results show that large-scale models can be used to provide valuable real

  6. Global patterns of evolutionary distinct and globally endangered amphibians and mammals.

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    Safi, Kamran; Armour-Marshall, Katrina; Baillie, Jonathan E M; Isaac, Nick J B

    2013-01-01

    Conservation of phylogenetic diversity allows maximising evolutionary information preserved within fauna and flora. The "EDGE of Existence" programme is the first institutional conservation initiative that prioritises species based on phylogenetic information. Species are ranked in two ways: one according to their evolutionary distinctiveness (ED) and second, by including IUCN extinction status, their evolutionary distinctiveness and global endangerment (EDGE). Here, we describe the global patterns in the spatial distribution of priority ED and EDGE species, in order to identify conservation areas for mammalian and amphibian communities. In addition, we investigate whether environmental conditions can predict the observed spatial pattern in ED and EDGE globally. Priority zones with high concentrations of ED and EDGE scores were defined using two different methods. The overlap between mammal and amphibian zones was very small, reflecting the different phylo-biogeographic histories. Mammal ED zones were predominantly found on the African continent and the neotropical forests, whereas in amphibians, ED zones were concentrated in North America. Mammal EDGE zones were mainly in South-East Asia, southern Africa and Madagascar; for amphibians they were in central and south America. The spatial pattern of ED and EDGE was poorly described by a suite of environmental variables. Mapping the spatial distribution of ED and EDGE provides an important step towards identifying priority areas for the conservation of mammalian and amphibian phylogenetic diversity in the EDGE of existence programme.

  7. Global patterns of evolutionary distinct and globally endangered amphibians and mammals.

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    Kamran Safi

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Conservation of phylogenetic diversity allows maximising evolutionary information preserved within fauna and flora. The "EDGE of Existence" programme is the first institutional conservation initiative that prioritises species based on phylogenetic information. Species are ranked in two ways: one according to their evolutionary distinctiveness (ED and second, by including IUCN extinction status, their evolutionary distinctiveness and global endangerment (EDGE. Here, we describe the global patterns in the spatial distribution of priority ED and EDGE species, in order to identify conservation areas for mammalian and amphibian communities. In addition, we investigate whether environmental conditions can predict the observed spatial pattern in ED and EDGE globally. METHODS AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Priority zones with high concentrations of ED and EDGE scores were defined using two different methods. The overlap between mammal and amphibian zones was very small, reflecting the different phylo-biogeographic histories. Mammal ED zones were predominantly found on the African continent and the neotropical forests, whereas in amphibians, ED zones were concentrated in North America. Mammal EDGE zones were mainly in South-East Asia, southern Africa and Madagascar; for amphibians they were in central and south America. The spatial pattern of ED and EDGE was poorly described by a suite of environmental variables. CONCLUSIONS: Mapping the spatial distribution of ED and EDGE provides an important step towards identifying priority areas for the conservation of mammalian and amphibian phylogenetic diversity in the EDGE of existence programme.

  8. Global patterns of fragmentation and connectivity of mammalian carnivore habitat.

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    Crooks, Kevin R; Burdett, Christopher L; Theobald, David M; Rondinini, Carlo; Boitani, Luigi

    2011-09-27

    Although mammalian carnivores are vulnerable to habitat fragmentation and require landscape connectivity, their global patterns of fragmentation and connectivity have not been examined. We use recently developed high-resolution habitat suitability models to conduct comparative analyses and to identify global hotspots of fragmentation and connectivity for the world's terrestrial carnivores. Species with less fragmentation (i.e. more interior high-quality habitat) had larger geographical ranges, a greater proportion of habitat within their range, greater habitat connectivity and a lower risk of extinction. Species with higher connectivity (i.e. less habitat isolation) also had a greater proportion of high-quality habitat, but had smaller, not larger, ranges, probably reflecting shorter distances between habitat patches for species with restricted distributions; such species were also more threatened, as would be expected given the negative relationship between range size and extinction risk. Fragmentation and connectivity did not differ among Carnivora families, and body mass was associated with connectivity but not fragmentation. On average, only 54.3 per cent of a species' geographical range comprised high-quality habitat, and more troubling, only 5.2 per cent of the range comprised such habitat within protected areas. Identification of global hotspots of fragmentation and connectivity will help guide strategic priorities for carnivore conservation.

  9. Optimizing Hybrid Spreading in Metapopulations.

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    Zhang, C.; Zhou, S.; Miller, J. C.; Cox, I. J.; Chain, B. M.

    2015-01-01

    Epidemic spreading phenomena are ubiquitous in nature and society. Examples include the spreading of diseases, information, and computer viruses. Epidemics can spread by local spreading, where infected nodes can only infect a limited set of direct target nodes and global spreading, where an infected node can infect every other node. In reality, many epidemics spread using a hybrid mixture of both types of spreading. In this study we develop a theoretical framework for studying hybrid epidemic...

  10. Optimizing Hybrid Spreading in Metapopulations

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Changwang; Zhou, Shi; Miller, Joel C.; Cox, Ingemar J.; Chain, Benjamin M.

    2014-01-01

    Epidemic spreading phenomena are ubiquitous in nature and society. Examples include the spreading of diseases, information, and computer viruses. Epidemics can spread by local spreading, where infected nodes can only infect a limited set of direct target nodes and global spreading, where an infected node can infect every other node. In reality, many epidemics spread using a hybrid mixture of both types of spreading. In this study we develop a theoretical framework for studying hybrid epidemic...

  11. Global patterns of diversity and selection in human tyrosinase gene.

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    Hudjashov, Georgi; Villems, Richard; Kivisild, Toomas

    2013-01-01

    Global variation in skin pigmentation is one of the most striking examples of environmental adaptation in humans. More than two hundred loci have been identified as candidate genes in model organisms and a few tens of these have been found to be significantly associated with human skin pigmentation in genome-wide association studies. However, the evolutionary history of different pigmentation genes is rather complex: some loci have been subjected to strong positive selection, while others evolved under the relaxation of functional constraints in low UV environment. Here we report the results of a global study of the human tyrosinase gene, which is one of the key enzymes in melanin production, to assess the role of its variation in the evolution of skin pigmentation differences among human populations. We observe a higher rate of non-synonymous polymorphisms in the European sample consistent with the relaxation of selective constraints. A similar pattern was previously observed in the MC1R gene and concurs with UV radiation-driven model of skin color evolution by which mutations leading to lower melanin levels and decreased photoprotection are subject to purifying selection at low latitudes while being tolerated or even favored at higher latitudes because they facilitate UV-dependent vitamin D production. Our coalescent date estimates suggest that the non-synonymous variants, which are frequent in Europe and North Africa, are recent and have emerged after the separation of East and West Eurasian populations.

  12. Global patterns and predictions of seafloor biomass using random forests.

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    Chih-Lin Wei

    Full Text Available A comprehensive seafloor biomass and abundance database has been constructed from 24 oceanographic institutions worldwide within the Census of Marine Life (CoML field projects. The machine-learning algorithm, Random Forests, was employed to model and predict seafloor standing stocks from surface primary production, water-column integrated and export particulate organic matter (POM, seafloor relief, and bottom water properties. The predictive models explain 63% to 88% of stock variance among the major size groups. Individual and composite maps of predicted global seafloor biomass and abundance are generated for bacteria, meiofauna, macrofauna, and megafauna (invertebrates and fishes. Patterns of benthic standing stocks were positive functions of surface primary production and delivery of the particulate organic carbon (POC flux to the seafloor. At a regional scale, the census maps illustrate that integrated biomass is highest at the poles, on continental margins associated with coastal upwelling and with broad zones associated with equatorial divergence. Lowest values are consistently encountered on the central abyssal plains of major ocean basins The shift of biomass dominance groups with depth is shown to be affected by the decrease in average body size rather than abundance, presumably due to decrease in quantity and quality of food supply. This biomass census and associated maps are vital components of mechanistic deep-sea food web models and global carbon cycling, and as such provide fundamental information that can be incorporated into evidence-based management.

  13. Magnetic resonance imaging for assessment of parametrial tumour spread and regression patterns in adaptive cervix cancer radiotherapy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schmid, Maximilian P.; Fidarova, Elena [Dept. of Radiotherapy, Comprehensive Cancer Center, Medical Univ. of Vienna, Vienna (Austria)], e-mail: maximilian.schmid@akhwien.at; Poetter, Richard [Dept. of Radiotherapy, Comprehensive Cancer Center, Medical Univ. of Vienna, Vienna (Austria); Christian Doppler Lab. for Medical Radiation Research for Radiation Oncology, Medical Univ. of Vienna (Austria)] [and others

    2013-10-15

    Purpose: To investigate the impact of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-morphologic differences in parametrial infiltration on tumour response during primary radio chemotherapy in cervical cancer. Material and methods: Eighty-five consecutive cervical cancer patients with FIGO stages IIB (n = 59) and IIIB (n = 26), treated by external beam radiotherapy ({+-}chemotherapy) and image-guided adaptive brachytherapy, underwent T2-weighted MRI at the time of diagnosis and at the time of brachytherapy. MRI patterns of parametrial tumour infiltration at the time of diagnosis were assessed with regard to predominant morphology and maximum extent of parametrial tumour infiltration and were stratified into five tumour groups (TG): 1) expansive with spiculae; 2) expansive with spiculae and infiltrating parts; 3) infiltrative into the inner third of the parametrial space (PM); 4) infiltrative into the middle third of the PM; and 5) infiltrative into the outer third of the PM. MRI at the time of brachytherapy was used for identifying presence (residual vs. no residual disease) and signal intensity (high vs. intermediate) of residual disease within the PM. Left and right PM of each patient were evaluated separately at both time points. The impact of the TG on tumour remission status within the PM was analysed using {chi}2-test and logistic regression analysis. Results: In total, 170 PM were analysed. The TG 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 were present in 12%, 11%, 35%, 25% and 12% of the cases, respectively. Five percent of the PM were tumour-free. Residual tumour in the PM was identified in 19%, 68%, 88%, 90% and 85% of the PM for the TG 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5, respectively. The TG 3 - 5 had significantly higher rates of residual tumour in the PM in comparison to TG 1 + 2 (88% vs. 43%, p < 0.01). Conclusion: MRI-morphologic features of PM infiltration appear to allow for prediction of tumour response during external beam radiotherapy and chemotherapy. A predominantly infiltrative tumour spread at the

  14. Genomic analysis of globally diverse Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains provides insights into emergence and spread of multidrug resistance

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    Manson, Abigail L.; Cohen, Keira A.; Abeel, Thomas; Desjardins, Christopher A.; Armstrong, Derek T.; Barry, Clifton E.; Brand, Jeannette; Chapman, Sinéad B.; Cho, Sang-Nae; Gabrielian, Andrei; Gomez, James; Jodals, Andreea M.; Joloba, Moses; Jureen, Pontus; Lee, Jong Seok; Malinga, Lesibana; Maiga, Mamoudou; Nordenberg, Dale; Noroc, Ecaterina; Romancenco, Elena; Salazar, Alex; Ssengooba, Willy; Velayati, A. A.; Winglee, Kathryn; Zalutskaya, Aksana; Via, Laura E.; Cassell, Gail H.; Dorman, Susan E.; Ellner, Jerrold; Farnia, Parissa; Galagan, James E.; Rosenthal, Alex; Crudu, Valeriu; Homorodean, Daniela; Hsueh, Po-Ren; Narayanan, Sujatha; Pym, Alexander S.; Skrahina, Alena; Swaminathan, Soumya; Van der Walt, Martie; Alland, David; Bishai, William R.; Cohen, Ted; Hoffner, Sven; Birren, Bruce W.; Earl, Ashlee M.

    2017-01-01

    Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB), caused by drug resistant strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis, is an increasingly serious problem worldwide. In this study, we examined a dataset of 5,310 M. tuberculosis whole genome sequences from five continents. Despite great diversity with respect to geographic point of isolation, genetic background and drug resistance, patterns of drug resistance emergence were conserved globally. We have identified harbinger mutations that often precede MDR. In particular, the katG S315T mutation, conferring resistance to isoniazid, overwhelmingly arose before rifampicin resistance across all lineages, geographic regions, and time periods. Molecular diagnostics that include markers for rifampicin resistance alone will be insufficient to identify pre-MDR strains. Incorporating knowledge of pre-MDR polymorphisms, particularly katG S315, into molecular diagnostics will enable targeted treatment of patients with pre-MDR-TB to prevent further development of MDR-TB. PMID:28092681

  15. Global patterns and trends in human-wildlife conflict compensation.

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    Ravenelle, Jeremy; Nyhus, Philip J

    2017-12-01

    Human-wildlife conflict is a major conservation challenge, and compensation for wildlife damage is a widely used economic tool to mitigate this conflict. The effectiveness of this management tool is widely debated. The relative importance of factors associated with compensation success is unclear, and little is known about global geographic or taxonomic differences in the application of compensation programs. We reviewed research on wildlife-damage compensation to determine geographic and taxonomic gaps, analyze patterns of positive and negative comments related to compensation, and assess the relative magnitude of global compensation payments. We analyzed 288 publications referencing wildlife compensation and identified 138 unique compensation programs. These publications reported US$222 million (adjusted for inflation) spent on compensation in 50 countries since 1980. Europeans published the most articles, and compensation funding was highest in Europe, where depredation by wolves and bears was the most frequently compensated damage. Authors of the publications we reviewed made twice as many negative comments as positive comments about compensation. Three-quarters of the negative comments related to program administration. Conversely, three-quarters of the positive comments related to program outcomes. The 3 most common suggestions to improve compensation programs included requiring claimants to employ damage-prevention practices, such as improving livestock husbandry or fencing of crops to receive compensation (n = 25, 15%); modifying ex post compensation schemes to some form of outcome-based performance payment (n = 21, 12%); and altering programs to make compensation payments more quickly (n = 14, 8%). We suggest that further understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of compensation as a conflict-mitigation tool will require more systematic evaluation of the factors driving these opinions and that differentiating process and outcomes and understanding

  16. Temporal patterns of diversification across global cichlid biodiversity (Acanthomorpha: Cichlidae.

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    Caleb D McMahan

    Full Text Available The contrasting distribution of species diversity across the major lineages of cichlids makes them an ideal group for investigating macroevolutionary processes. In this study, we investigate whether different rates of diversification may explain the disparity in species richness across cichlid lineages globally. We present the most taxonomically robust time-calibrated hypothesis of cichlid evolutionary relationships to date. We then utilize this temporal framework to investigate whether both species-rich and depauperate lineages are associated with rapid shifts in diversification rates and if exceptional species richness can be explained by clade age alone. A single significant rapid rate shift increase is detected within the evolutionary history of the African subfamily Pseudocrenilabrinae, which includes the haplochromins of the East African Great Lakes. Several lineages from the subfamilies Pseudocrenilabrinae (Australotilapiini, Oreochromini and Cichlinae (Heroini exhibit exceptional species richness given their clade age, a net rate of diversification, and relative rates of extinction, indicating that clade age alone is not a sufficient explanation for their increased diversity. Our results indicate that the Neotropical Cichlinae includes lineages that have not experienced a significant rapid burst in diversification when compared to certain African lineages (rift lake. Neotropical cichlids have remained comparatively understudied with regard to macroevolutionary patterns relative to African lineages, and our results indicate that of Neotropical lineages, the tribe Heroini may have an elevated rate of diversification in contrast to other Neotropical cichlids. These findings provide insight into our understanding of the diversification patterns across taxonomically disparate lineages in this diverse clade of freshwater fishes and one of the most species-rich families of vertebrates.

  17. Mars Global Digital Dune Database (MGD3): Global dune distribution and wind pattern observations

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    Hayward, Rosalyn K.; Fenton, Lori; Titus, Timothy N.

    2014-01-01

    The Mars Global Digital Dune Database (MGD3) is complete and now extends from 90°N to 90°S latitude. The recently released south pole (SP) portion (MC-30) of MGD3 adds ∼60,000 km2 of medium to large-size dark dune fields and ∼15,000 km2 of sand deposits and smaller dune fields to the previously released equatorial (EQ, ∼70,000 km2), and north pole (NP, ∼845,000 km2) portions of the database, bringing the global total to ∼975,000 km2. Nearly all NP dunes are part of large sand seas, while the majority of EQ and SP dune fields are individual dune fields located in craters. Despite the differences between Mars and Earth, their dune and dune field morphologies are strikingly similar. Bullseye dune fields, named for their concentric ring pattern, are the exception, possibly owing their distinctive appearance to winds that are unique to the crater environment. Ground-based wind directions are derived from slipface (SF) orientation and dune centroid azimuth (DCA), a measure of the relative location of a dune field inside a crater. SF and DCA often preserve evidence of different wind directions, suggesting the importance of local, topographically influenced winds. In general however, ground-based wind directions are broadly consistent with expected global patterns, such as polar easterlies. Intriguingly, between 40°S and 80°S latitude both SF and DCA preserve their strongest, though different, dominant wind direction, with transport toward the west and east for SF-derived winds and toward the north and west for DCA-derived winds.

  18. GLOBAL PATTERNS OF LEPTOSPIRA PREVALENCE IN VERTEBRATE RESERVOIR HOSTS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen-Ranberg, Emilie U; Pipper, Christian; Jensen, Per M

    2016-07-01

    Leptospirosis is a widespread emerging bacterial zoonosis. As the transmission is believed to be predominantly waterborne, human incidence is expected to increase in conjunction with global climate change and associated extreme weather events. Providing more accurate predictions of human leptospirosis requires more detailed information on animal reservoirs that are the source of human infection. We evaluated the prevalence of Leptospira in vertebrates worldwide and its association with taxonomy, geographic region, host biology, ambient temperature, and precipitation patterns. A multivariate regression analysis with a meta-analysis-like approach was used to analyze compiled data extracted from 300 Leptospira-related peer reviewed papers. A fairly uniform Leptospira infection prevalence of about 15% was found in the majority of mammalian families. Higher prevalence was frequently associated with species occupying urban habitats, and this may explain why climatic factors were not significantly correlated with prevalence as consistently as expected. Across different approaches of the multiple regression analyses, the variables most frequently correlated with Leptospira infection prevalence were the host's ability to swim, minimum ambient temperature, and methodologic quality of the study. Prevalence in carnivores was not associated with any climatic variable, and the importance of environmental risk factors were indicated to be of lesser consequence in nonhuman mammals. The dataset is made available for further analysis.

  19. Global patterns of city size distributions and their fundamental drivers.

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    Ethan H Decker

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Urban areas and their voracious appetites are increasingly dominating the flows of energy and materials around the globe. Understanding the size distribution and dynamics of urban areas is vital if we are to manage their growth and mitigate their negative impacts on global ecosystems. For over 50 years, city size distributions have been assumed to universally follow a power function, and many theories have been put forth to explain what has become known as Zipf's law (the instance where the exponent of the power function equals unity. Most previous studies, however, only include the largest cities that comprise the tail of the distribution. Here we show that national, regional and continental city size distributions, whether based on census data or inferred from cluster areas of remotely-sensed nighttime lights, are in fact lognormally distributed through the majority of cities and only approach power functions for the largest cities in the distribution tails. To explore generating processes, we use a simple model incorporating only two basic human dynamics, migration and reproduction, that nonetheless generates distributions very similar to those found empirically. Our results suggest that macroscopic patterns of human settlements may be far more constrained by fundamental ecological principles than more fine-scale socioeconomic factors.

  20. Global Disparities Since 1800: Trends and Regional Patterns

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    M. Shahid Alam

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper reviews the growing body of evidence on the relative economic standing of different regions of the world in the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries. In general, it does not find support for Euro-centric claims regarding Western Europe’s early economic lead. The Eurocentric claims are based primarily on estimates of per capita income, which are plagued by conceptual problems, make demands on historical data that are generally unavailable, and use questionable assumptions to reconstruct early per capita income. A careful examination of these conjectural estimates of per capita income, however, does not support claims that Western Europe had a substantial lead over the rest of the world at the beginning of the nineteenth century. An examination of several alternative indices of living standards in the late eighteenth or early nineteenth centuries—such as real wages, labor productivity in agriculture, and urbanization—also fails to confirm claims of European superiority. In addition, this paper examines the progress of global disparities—including the presence of regional patterns—using estimates of per capita income.

  1. Accounting for sampling patterns reverses the relative importance of trade and climate for the global sharing of exotic plants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sofaer, Helen R.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.

    2017-01-01

    AimThe distributions of exotic species reflect patterns of human-mediated dispersal, species climatic tolerances and a suite of other biotic and abiotic factors. The relative importance of each of these factors will shape how the spread of exotic species is affected by ongoing economic globalization and climate change. However, patterns of trade may be correlated with variation in scientific sampling effort globally, potentially confounding studies that do not account for sampling patterns.LocationGlobal.Time periodMuseum records, generally from the 1800s up to 2015.Major taxa studiedPlant species exotic to the United States.MethodsWe used data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) to summarize the number of plant species with exotic occurrences in the United States that also occur in each other country world-wide. We assessed the relative importance of trade and climatic similarity for explaining variation in the number of shared species while evaluating several methods to account for variation in sampling effort among countries.ResultsAccounting for variation in sampling effort reversed the relative importance of trade and climate for explaining numbers of shared species. Trade was strongly correlated with numbers of shared U.S. exotic plants between the United States and other countries before, but not after, accounting for sampling variation among countries. Conversely, accounting for sampling effort strengthened the relationship between climatic similarity and species sharing. Using the number of records as a measure of sampling effort provided a straightforward approach for the analysis of occurrence data, whereas species richness estimators and rarefaction were less effective at removing sampling bias.Main conclusionsOur work provides support for broad-scale climatic limitation on the distributions of exotic species, illustrates the need to account for variation in sampling effort in large biodiversity databases, and highlights the

  2. Global adaptation patterns of Australian and CIMMYT spring bread wheat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathews, Ky L; Chapman, Scott C; Trethowan, Richard; Pfeiffer, Wolfgang; van Ginkel, Maarten; Crossa, Jose; Payne, Thomas; Delacy, Ian; Fox, Paul N; Cooper, Mark

    2007-10-01

    The International Adaptation Trial (IAT) is a special purpose nursery designed to investigate the genotype-by-environment interactions and worldwide adaptation for grain yield of Australian and CIMMYT spring bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and durum wheat (T. turgidum L. var. durum). The IAT contains lines representing Australian and CIMMYT wheat breeding programs and was distributed to 91 countries between 2000 and 2004. Yield data of 41 reference lines from 106 trials were analysed. A multiplicative mixed model accounted for trial variance heterogeneity and inter-trial correlations characteristic of multi-environment trials. A factor analytic model explained 48% of the genetic variance for the reference lines. Pedigree information was then incorporated to partition the genetic line effects into additive and non-additive components. This model explained 67 and 56% of the additive by environment and non-additive by environment genetic variances, respectively. Australian and CIMMYT germplasm showed good adaptation to their respective target production environments. In general, Australian lines performed well in south and west Australia, South America, southern Africa, Iran and high latitude European and Canadian locations. CIMMYT lines performed well at CIMMYT's key yield testing location in Mexico (CIANO), north-eastern Australia, the Indo-Gangetic plains, West Asia North Africa and locations in Europe and Canada. Maturity explained some of the global adaptation patterns. In general, southern Australian germplasm were later maturing than CIMMYT material. While CIANO continues to provide adapted lines to northern Australia, selecting for yield among later maturing CIMMYT material in CIANO may identify lines adapted to southern and western Australian environments.

  3. The Determination of Children's Knowledge of Global Lunar Patterns from Online Essays Using Text Mining Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheon, Jongpil; Lee, Sangno; Smith, Walter; Song, Jaeki; Kim, Yongjin

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to use text mining analysis of early adolescents' online essays to determine their knowledge of global lunar patterns. Australian and American students in grades five to seven wrote about global lunar patterns they had discovered by sharing observations with each other via the Internet. These essays were analyzed for…

  4. Bulgarian regional patterns of contamination by global fallout (strontium 90)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boyadzhiev, A.; Shopov, N.; Simova, G.; Andreev, E.; Mikha lov, M.G.

    1980-01-01

    For selected districts in the country, mean annual atmospheric precipitation rates were related to strontium-90 contents in milk over the period 1970-1977. Strontium-90 in milk was determined by the method of Popov, using Va-Z-310 counters for activity measurements. The impact of annual precipitation means was examined by monofactorial spread analysis, with sites distributed into three groups according to precipitation rates observed over longer time periods: up to 650 l/m 2 from 650 to 750 l/m 2 ; and above 750 L/M 2 . Values of coefficient F were estimated, representing the ratio of group to random spreads. These figures were compared with critical values in Student's tables for 0.05 significance level. The F data indicated a definite alternative relationship to exist between strontium-90 amounts in mils and annual precipitation rates, which is prognostically meaningful from the strandpoint of radiological protection of the population

  5. Ocean, Spreading Centre

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Krishna, K.S.

    over the global midoceanic ridges have found some explicit relationships between spreading rate, seismic structure, and ridge-axis morphology. Bibliography Detrick, R. S., Buhl, P., Vera, E., Mutter, J., Orcutt, J., Madsen, J., and Brocher, T., 1987...

  6. Peculiarities of spreading separatist trends in the Modern World in the context of development of the global processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bostan Sergii Ivanovich

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The international collaboration is entering the new era of globalization revealing not only the new ways of development and quantum growth for humanity but also new threats, problems and global conflicts. There is now doubt that humanity is facing new global range of problems, agenda of the 21st century and urgent issues of global organization of the world order and systems of global administration acceptable for all states. Preventing distribution of international confrontation between the major political players through advancement of separatist and terrorist trends must become the main priority for the international system of collective security, which should be changed according to the realities of the modern global processes.

  7. Metofluthrin: investigations into the use of a volatile spatial pyrethroid in a global spread of dengue, chikungunya and Zika viruses

    OpenAIRE

    Buhagiar, Tamara S.; Devine, Gregor J.; Ritchie, Scott A.

    2017-01-01

    Background Metofluthrin reduces biting activity in Aedes aegypti through the confusion, knockdown, and subsequent kill of a mosquito. A geographical spread in dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses, increases intervention demands. Response to a Zika outbreak may require a different strategy than dengue, as high-risk individuals, specifically pregnant women, need to be targeted. Methods In semi-field conditions within a residential property in Cairns, Queensland, the impacts of metofluthrin on ...

  8. A Global Online Handwriting Recognition Approach Based on Frequent Patterns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Gmati

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available In this article, the handwriting signals are represented based on geometric and spatio-temporal characteristics to increase the feature vectors relevance of each object. The main goal was to extract features in the form of a numeric vector based on the extraction of frequent patterns. We used two types of frequent motifs (closed frequent patterns and maximal frequent patterns that can represent handwritten characters pertinently. These common features patterns are generated from a raw data transformation method to achieve high relevance. A database of words consisting of two different letters was created. The proposed application gives promising results and highlights the advantages that frequent pattern extraction algorithms can achieve, as well as the central role played by the “minimum threshold” parameter in the overall description of the characters.

  9. Optimizing hybrid spreading in metapopulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Changwang; Zhou, Shi; Miller, Joel C; Cox, Ingemar J; Chain, Benjamin M

    2015-04-29

    Epidemic spreading phenomena are ubiquitous in nature and society. Examples include the spreading of diseases, information, and computer viruses. Epidemics can spread by local spreading, where infected nodes can only infect a limited set of direct target nodes and global spreading, where an infected node can infect every other node. In reality, many epidemics spread using a hybrid mixture of both types of spreading. In this study we develop a theoretical framework for studying hybrid epidemics, and examine the optimum balance between spreading mechanisms in terms of achieving the maximum outbreak size. We show the existence of critically hybrid epidemics where neither spreading mechanism alone can cause a noticeable spread but a combination of the two spreading mechanisms would produce an enormous outbreak. Our results provide new strategies for maximising beneficial epidemics and estimating the worst outcome of damaging hybrid epidemics.

  10. Detection of viruses and the spatial and temporal spread patterns of viral diseases of cucurbits (Cucurbitaceae spp.) in the coastal savannah zone of Ghana

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gyamena, A. E

    2013-07-01

    Cucurbits are susceptible to over 35 plant viruses; each of these viruses is capable of causing total crop failure in a poorly managed virus pathosystem. The objectives of this study were to detect the viruses that infect six cucurbit species in the coastal savannah zone of Ghana and to describe the spatial and temporal spread patterns of virus epidemics in zucchini squash (Cucurbita pepo L.) by the use of mathematical and geostatistical models. Cucumber (Cucumis sativus L.), watermelon (Citrullus lanatus Thunb.), zucchini squash (Cucurbita pepo L.), butternut squash (Cucurbita moschata Duchesne), egushi (Citrullus colocynthis L. Schrad.) and melon (Cucumis melo L.) were grown on an experimental field in the coastal savannah zone of Ghana and were monitored for the expression of virus and virus-like symptoms. The observed symptoms were further confirmed by Double Antibody Sandwich Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay (DAS ELISA) and mechanical inoculation of indicator plants. The temporal spread patterns of virus disease in zucchini squash were analyzed by exponential logistic, monomolecular and gompertz mechanistic models. The spatial patterns of virus disease spread in zucchini squash field were analyzed by semivariograms and inverse distance weighing (IDW) methods. Cucumber, zucchini squash, melon and butternut squash were infected by both Cucumber mosaic virus (CMW) and Papaya ringspot virus (PRSV-W). Egushi was infected by CMW but not PRSV-W. None of the six cucurbit species were infected by Watermelon mosaic virus (WMV) or Zucchini yellow mosaic virus (ZYMV). The temporal pattern of disease incidence in the zucchini squash field followed the gompertz function with an average apparent infection rate of 0.026 per day. The temporal pattern of disease severity was best described by the exponential model with coefficient of determination of 94.38 % and rate of progress disease severity of 0.114 per day. As at 49 days after planting (DAP), disease incidence and

  11. Global patterns of Leptospira prevalence in vertebrate reservoir hosts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen-Ranberg, Emilie U.; Pipper, Christian Bressen; Jensen, Per Moestrup

    2016-01-01

    leptospirosis requires more detailed information on animal reservoirs that are the source of human infection. We evaluated the prevalence of Leptospira in vertebrates worldwide and its association with taxonomy, geographic region, host biology, ambient temperature, and precipitation patterns. A multivariate...

  12. Evolution and patterns of global health financing 1995-2014

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dieleman, Joseph; Campbell, Madeline; Chapin, Abigail; Eldrenkamp, Erika; Fan, Victoria Y.; Haakenstad, Annie; Kates, Jennifer; Liu, Yingying; Matyasz, Taylor; Micah, Angela; Reynolds, Alex; Sadat, Nafis; Schneider, Matthew T.; Sorensen, Reed; Evans, Tim; Evans, David; Kurowski, Christoph; Tandon, Ajay; Abbas, Kaja M.; Abera, Semaw Ferede; Ahmad Kiadaliri, Aliasghar; Ahmed, Kedir Yimam; Ahmed, Muktar Beshir; Alam, Khurshid; Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza; Alkerwi, A.; Amini, Erfan; Ammar, Walid; Amrock, Stephen Marc; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T.; Atey, Tesfay Mehari; Avila-Burgos, Leticia; Awasthi, Ashish; Barac, Aleksandra; Bernal, Oscar Alberto; Beyene, Addisu Shunu; Beyene, Tariku Jibat; Birungi, Charles; Bizuayehu, Habtamu Mellie; Breitborde, Nicholas J.K.; Cahuana-Hurtado, Lucero; Castro, Ruben Estanislao; Catalá-López, Ferran; Dalal, Koustuv; Dandona, Lalit; Dandona, Rakhi; Jager, De Pieter; Dharmaratne, Samath D.; Dubey, Manisha; Sa Farinha, Carla Sofia E.; Faro, Andre; Feigl, Andrea B.; Fischer, Florian; Fitchett, Joseph Robert Anderson; Foigt, Nataliya; Giref, Ababi Zergaw; Gupta, Rahul; Hamidi, Samer; Harb, Hilda L.; Hay, Simon I.; Hendrie, Delia; Horino, Masako; Jürisson, Mikk; Jakovljevic, Mihajlo B.; Javanbakht, Mehdi; John, Denny; Jonas, Jost B.; Karimi, Seyed M.; Khang, Young Ho; Khubchandani, Jagdish; Kim, Yun Jin; Kinge, Jonas M.; Krohn, Kristopher J.; Kumar, G.A.; Magdy Abd El Razek, Hassan; Magdy Abd El Razek, Mohammed; Majeed, Azeem; Malekzadeh, Reza; Masiye, Felix; Meier, Toni; Meretoja, Atte; Miller, Ted R.; Mirrakhimov, Erkin M.; Mohammed, Shafiu; Nangia, Vinay; Olgiati, Stefano; Osman, Abdalla Sidahmed; Owolabi, Mayowa O.; Patel, Tejas; Paternina Caicedo, Angel J.; Pereira, David M.; Perelman, Julian; Polinder, Suzanne; Rafay, Anwar; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa; Rai, Rajesh Kumar; Ram, Usha; Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal; Roba, Hirbo Shore; Salama, Joseph; Savic, Miloje; Sepanlou, Sadaf G.; Shrime, Mark G.; Talongwa, Roberto Tchio; Ao, Te Braden J.; Tediosi, Fabrizio; Tesema, Azeb Gebresilassie; Thomson, Alan J.; Tobe-Gai, Ruoyan; Topor-Madry, Roman; Undurraga, Eduardo A.; Vasankari, Tommi; Violante, Francesco S.; Werdecker, Andrea; Wijeratne, Tissa; Xu, Gelin; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Younis, Mustafa Z.; Yu, Chuanhua; Zaidi, Zoubida; Sayed Zaki, El Maysaa; Murray, Christopher J.L.

    2017-01-01

    Background: An adequate amount of prepaid resources for health is important to ensure access to health services and for the pursuit of universal health coverage. Previous studies on global health financing have described the relationship between economic development and health financing. In this

  13. Global patterns of current and future road infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meijer, Johan R.; Huijbregts, Mark A. J.; Schotten, Kees C. G. J.; Schipper, Aafke M.

    2018-06-01

    Georeferenced information on road infrastructure is essential for spatial planning, socio-economic assessments and environmental impact analyses. Yet current global road maps are typically outdated or characterized by spatial bias in coverage. In the Global Roads Inventory Project we gathered, harmonized and integrated nearly 60 geospatial datasets on road infrastructure into a global roads dataset. The resulting dataset covers 222 countries and includes over 21 million km of roads, which is two to three times the total length in the currently best available country-based global roads datasets. We then related total road length per country to country area, population density, GDP and OECD membership, resulting in a regression model with adjusted R 2 of 0.90, and found that that the highest road densities are associated with densely populated and wealthier countries. Applying our regression model to future population densities and GDP estimates from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios, we obtained a tentative estimate of 3.0–4.7 million km additional road length for the year 2050. Large increases in road length were projected for developing nations in some of the world’s last remaining wilderness areas, such as the Amazon, the Congo basin and New Guinea. This highlights the need for accurate spatial road datasets to underpin strategic spatial planning in order to reduce the impacts of roads in remaining pristine ecosystems.

  14. Global Warming and Changing Temperature Patterns over Mauritius ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper discusses the changing temperature pattern over Mauritius. We observe an increase of the annual mean temperature at Pamplemousses since 1876 with an average rate of 0.009oC per year with a significant correlation coefficient of 0.67. Compared to the mean temperature for the period of 1951 to 1960, we ...

  15. National Income, Inequality and Global Patterns of Cigarette Use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pampel, Fred

    2007-01-01

    Declining tobacco use in high-income nations and rising tobacco use in low- and middle-income nations raises questions about the sources of worldwide patterns of smoking. Theories posit a curvilinear influence of national income based on the balance of affordability and health-cost effects. In addition, however, economic inequality, gender…

  16. Characteristics of diurnal pattern of global photosynthetically-active ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A two year data (September 1992 August 1994) on photosynhetically-active radiation (PAR) measured at Ilorin (Lat.: 832´N. Long.:434´E) using LI-190SA quantum sensor are analysed both on daily and monthly mean diurnal bases. This was done with the aim of characterizing the diurnal pattern of this radiation at this ...

  17. HANPP Collection: Global Patterns in Human Appropriation of Net Primary Productivity (HANPP)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Global Patterns in Human Appropriation of Net Primary Productivity (HANPP) portion of the HANPP Collection represents a digital map of human appropriation of net...

  18. Hydropower versus irrigation—an analysis of global patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Ruijie; Cai, Ximing; Ringler, Claudia; Zhu, Tingju

    2017-03-01

    Numerous reservoirs around the world provide multiple flow regulation functions; key among these are hydroelectricity production and water releases for irrigation. These functions contribute to energy and food security at national, regional and global levels. While reservoir operations for hydroelectricity production might support irrigation, there are also well-known cases where hydroelectricity production reduces water availability for irrigated food production. This study assesses these relationships at the global level using machine-learning techniques and multi-source datasets. We find that 54% of global installed hydropower capacity (around 507 thousand Megawatt) competes with irrigation. Regions where such competition exists include the Central United States, northern Europe, India, Central Asia and Oceania. On the other hand, 8% of global installed hydropower capacity (around 79 thousand Megawatt) complements irrigation, particularly in the Yellow and Yangtze River Basins of China, the East and West Coasts of the United States and most river basins of Southeast Asia, Canada and Russia. No significant relationship is found for the rest of the world. We further analyze the impact of climate variables on the relationships between hydropower and irrigation. Reservoir flood control functions that operate under increased precipitation levels appear to constrain hydroelectricity production in various river basins of the United States, South China and most basins in Europe and Oceania. On the other hand, increased reservoir evaporative losses and higher irrigation requirements due to higher potential evaporation levels may lead to increased tradeoffs between irrigation and hydropower due to reduced water availability in regions with warmer climates, such as India, South China, and the Southern United States. With most reservoirs today being built for multiple purposes, it is important for policymakers to understand and plan for growing tradeoffs between key

  19. Global patterns of aboveground carbon stock and sequestration in mangroves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GUSTAVO C.D. ESTRADA

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT In order to contribute to understand the factors that control the provisioning of the ecosystem service of carbon storage by mangroves, data on carbon stock and sequestration in the aboveground biomass (AGB from 73 articles were averaged and tested for the dependence on latitude, climatic parameters, physiographic types and age. Global means of carbon stock (78.0 ± 64.5 tC.ha-1 and sequestration (2.9 ± 2.2 tC.ha-1.yr-1 showed that mangroves are among the forest ecosystems with greater capacity of carbon storage in AGB per area. On the global scale, carbon stock increases toward the equator (R²=0.22 and is dependent on 13 climatic parameters, which can be integrated in the following predictive equation: Carbon Stock in AGB = -16.342 + (8.341 x Isothermality + (0.021 x Annual Precipitation [R²=0.34; p < 0.05]. It was shown that almost 70% of carbon stock variability is explained by age. Carbon stock and sequestration also vary according to physiographic types, indicating the importance of hydroperiod and edaphic parameters to the local variability of carbon stock. By demonstrating the contribution of local and regional-global factors to carbon stock, this study provides information to the forecast of the effects of future climate changes and local anthropogenic forcings on this ecosystem service.

  20. Global Dispersal Pattern of HIV Type 1 Subtype CRF01_AE

    OpenAIRE

    Poljak, Mario; Angelis, Konstantinos; Albert, Jan; Mamais, Ioannis; Magiorkinis, Gkikas; Hatzakis, Angelos; Hamouda, Osamah; Stuck, Daniel; Vercauteren, Jurgen; Wensing, Annemarie; Alexiev, Ivailo

    2016-01-01

    Background. Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) subtype CRF01_AE originated in Africa and then passed to Thailand, where it established a major epidemic. Despite the global presence of CRF01_AE, little is known about its subsequent dispersal pattern. Methods. We assembled a global data set of 2736 CRF01_AE sequences by pooling sequences from public databases and patient-cohort studies. We estimated viral dispersal patterns, using statistical phylogeographic analysis run over bootstrap...

  1. A genomic portrait of the emergence, evolution, and global spread of a methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus pandemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holden, Matthew T G; Hsu, Li-Yang; Kurt, Kevin

    2013-01-01

    The widespread use of antibiotics in association with high-density clinical care has driven the emergence of drug-resistant bacteria that are adapted to thrive in hospitalized patients. Of particular concern are globally disseminated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) clones that ...

  2. Mortality of marine planktonic copepods : global rates and patterns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hirst, A.G.; Kiørboe, Thomas

    2002-01-01

    Using life history theory we make predictions of mortality rates in marine epi-pelagic copepods from field estimates of adult fecundity, development times and adult sex ratios. Predicted mortality increases with temperature in both broadcast and sac spawning copepods, and declines with body weight...... in broadcast spawners, while mortality in sac spawners is invariant with body size. Although the magnitude of copepod mortality does lie close to the overall general pattern for pelagic animals, copepod mortality scaling is much weaker, implying that small copepods are avoiding some mortality agent....../s that other pelagic animals of a similar size do not, We compile direct in situ estimates of copepod mortality and compare these with our indirect predictions; we find the predictions generally match the field measurements well with respect to average rates and patterns. Finally, by comparing in situ adult...

  3. Global patterns of terrestrial vertebrate diversity and conservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, Clinton N.; Pimm, Stuart L.; Joppa, Lucas N.

    2013-01-01

    Identifying priority areas for biodiversity is essential for directing conservation resources. Fundamentally, we must know where individual species live, which ones are vulnerable, where human actions threaten them, and their levels of protection. As conservation knowledge and threats change, we must reevaluate priorities. We mapped priority areas for vertebrates using newly updated data on >21,000 species of mammals, amphibians, and birds. For each taxon, we identified centers of richness for all species, small-ranged species, and threatened species listed with the International Union for the Conservation of Nature. Importantly, all analyses were at a spatial grain of 10 × 10 km, 100 times finer than previous assessments. This fine scale is a significant methodological improvement, because it brings mapping to scales comparable with regional decisions on where to place protected areas. We also mapped recent species discoveries, because they suggest where as-yet-unknown species might be living. To assess the protection of the priority areas, we calculated the percentage of priority areas within protected areas using the latest data from the World Database of Protected Areas, providing a snapshot of how well the planet’s protected area system encompasses vertebrate biodiversity. Although the priority areas do have more protection than the global average, the level of protection still is insufficient given the importance of these areas for preventing vertebrate extinctions. We also found substantial differences between our identified vertebrate priorities and the leading map of global conservation priorities, the biodiversity hotspots. Our findings suggest a need to reassess the global allocation of conservation resources to reflect today’s improved knowledge of biodiversity and conservation. PMID:23803854

  4. Global timber trade pattern: the cards have changed

    OpenAIRE

    Roda Jean-Marc; Rohana Abd Rahman; Ismariah Ahmad; Lim Hin Fui; Mohd Parid Mamat

    2011-01-01

    Since the 1960s, the global timber trade has gradually evolved from a South-North trade to a South-South trade, with an acceleration of the phenomenon in the mid 1990s. Nowadays, Asia consumes more than 70% (in round wood equivalent) of the forest products originating from the tropics. Africa becomes the new frontier for the supplies of wood material for Asian giants, which now source raw wood from all over the world. Since the mid 1990s, the dynamics of the tropical timber trade have been in...

  5. The Globalization of Food Systems: A Conceptual Framework and Empirical Patterns

    OpenAIRE

    Senauer, Benjamin; Venturini, Luciano

    2005-01-01

    This paper discusses a number of stylized facts and empirical patterns regarding agri-food trade flows as well as foreign direct investments in food processing and retailing. This evidence supports the hypothesis of an increasingly global food system. We identify the main factors at work such as push/supply side, pull/demand-side, and enabling/external factors. We show how the shift from national to global retailing is a recent phenomenon whose relevance for the globalization of upstream sect...

  6. Global Patterns of Legacy Nitrate Storage in the Vadose Zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ascott, M.; Gooddy, D.; Wang, L.; Stuart, M.; Lewis, M.; Ward, R.; Binley, A. M.

    2017-12-01

    Global-scale nitrogen (N) budgets have been developed to quantify the impact of man's influence on the nitrogen cycle. However, these budgets often do not consider legacy effects such as accumulation of nitrate in the deep vadose zone. In this presentation we show that the vadose zone is an important store of nitrate which should be considered in future nitrogen budgets for effective policymaking. Using estimates of depth to groundwater and nitrate leaching for 1900-2000, we quantify for the first time the peak global storage of nitrate in the vadose zone, estimated as 605 - 1814 Teragrams (Tg). Estimates of nitrate storage are validated using previous national and basin scale estimates of N storage and observed groundwater nitrate data for North America and Europe. Nitrate accumulation per unit area is greatest in North America, China and Central and Eastern Europe where thick vadose zones are present and there is an extensive history of agriculture. In these areas the long solute travel time in the vadose zone means that the anticipated impact of changes in agricultural practices on groundwater quality may be substantially delayed. We argue that in these areas use of conventional nitrogen budget approaches is inappropriate and their continued use will lead to significant errors.

  7. Global patterns of materials use. A socioeconomic and geophysical analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Steinberger, Julia K.; Krausmann, Fridolin; Eisenmenger, Nina [Institute of Social Ecology Vienna, IFF, University of Klagenfurt, Schottenfeldgasse 29, A-1070 Wien (Austria)

    2010-03-15

    Human use of materials is a major driver of global environmental change. The links between materials use and economic development are central to the challenge of decoupling of materials use and economic growth (dematerialization). This article presents a new global material flow dataset compiled for the year 2000, covering 175 countries, including both extraction and trade flows, and comprising four major material categories: biomass, construction minerals, fossil energy carriers and ores/industrial minerals. First, we quantify the variability and distributional inequality (Gini coefficients) in international material consumption. We then measure the influence of the drivers population, GDP, land area and climate. This analysis yields international income elasticities of material use. Finally, we examine the coupling between material flows, and between income and material productivity, measured in economic production per tonne material consumed. Material productivity is strongly coupled to income, and may thus not be suitable as an international indicator of environmental progress - a finding which we relate to the economic inelasticity of material consumption. The results demonstrate striking differences between the material groups. Biomass is the most equitably distributed resource, economically the most inelastic, and is not correlated to any of the mineral materials. The three mineral material groups are closely coupled to each other and economic activity, indicating that the challenge of dematerializing industrial economies may require fundamental structural transformation. Our analysis provides a first systematic investigation of international differences in material use and their drivers, and thus serves as the basis for more detailed future work. (author)

  8. Systematic change in global patterns of streamflow following volcanic eruptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iles, Carley E; Hegerl, Gabriele C

    2015-11-01

    Following large explosive volcanic eruptions precipitation decreases over much of the globe1-6, particularly in climatologically wet regions4,5. Stratospheric volcanic aerosols reflect sunlight, which reduces evaporation, whilst surface cooling stabilises the atmosphere and reduces its water-holding capacity7. Circulation changes modulate this global precipitation reduction on regional scales1,8-10. Despite the importance of rivers to people, it has been unclear whether volcanism causes detectable changes in streamflow given large natural variability. Here we analyse observational records of streamflow volume for fifty large rivers from around the world which cover between two and 6 major volcanic eruptions in the 20 th and late 19 th century. We find statistically significant reductions in flow following eruptions for the Amazon, Congo, Nile, Orange, Ob, Yenisey and Kolyma amongst others. When data from neighbouring rivers are combined - based on the areas where climate models simulate either an increase or a decrease in precipitation following eruptions - a significant (peruptions is detected in northern South American, central African and high-latitude Asian rivers, and on average across wet tropical and subtropical regions. We also detect a significant increase in southern South American and SW North American rivers. This suggests that future volcanic eruptions could substantially affect global water availability.

  9. The DELPHI Silicon Tracker in the global pattern recognition

    CERN Document Server

    Elsing, M

    2000-01-01

    ALEPH and DELPHI were the first experiments operating a silicon vertex detector at LEP. During the past 10 years of data taking the DELPHI Silicon Tracker was upgraded three times to follow the different tracking requirements for LEP 1 and LEP 2 as well as to improve the tracking performance. Several steps in the development of the pattern recognition software were done in order to understand and fully exploit the silicon tracker information. This article gives an overview of the final algorithms and concepts of the track reconstruction using the Silicon Tracker in DELPHI.

  10. The DELPHI Silicon Tracker in the global pattern recognition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elsing, M.

    2000-01-01

    ALEPH and DELPHI were the first experiments operating a silicon vertex detector at LEP. During the past 10 years of data taking the DELPHI Silicon Tracker was upgraded three times to follow the different tracking requirements for LEP 1 and LEP 2 as well as to improve the tracking performance. Several steps in the development of the pattern recognition software were done in order to understand and fully exploit the silicon tracker information. This article gives an overview of the final algorithms and concepts of the track reconstruction using the Silicon Tracker in DELPHI

  11. Molecular inference of sources and spreading patterns of Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasites in internally displaced persons settlements in Myanmar-China border area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo, Eugenia; Zhou, Guofa; Oo, Winny; Lee, Ming-Chieh; Baum, Elisabeth; Felgner, Philip L; Yang, Zhaoqing; Cui, Liwang; Yan, Guiyun

    2015-07-01

    In Myanmar, civil unrest and establishment of internally displaced persons (IDP) settlement along the Myanmar-China border have impacted malaria transmission. The growing IDP populations raise deep concerns about health impact on local communities. Microsatellite markers were used to examine the source and spreading patterns of Plasmodium falciparum between IDP settlement and surrounding villages in Myanmar along the China border. Genotypic structure of P. falciparum was compared over the past three years from the same area and the demographic history was inferred to determine the source of recent infections. In addition, we examined if border migration is a factor of P. falciparum infections in China by determining gene flow patterns across borders. Compared to local community, the IDP samples showed a reduced and consistently lower genetic diversity over the past three years. A strong signature of genetic bottleneck was detected in the IDP samples. P. falciparum infections from the border regions in China were genetically similar to Myanmar and parasite gene flow was not constrained by geographical distance. Reduced genetic diversity of P. falciparum suggested intense malaria control within the IDP settlement. Human movement was a key factor to the spread of malaria both locally in Myanmar and across the international border. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Invasive cyprinid fish in Europe originate from the single introduction of an admixed source population followed by a complex pattern of spread.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Simon

    Full Text Available The Asian cyprinid fish, the topmouth gudgeon (Pseudorasbora parva, was introduced into Europe in the 1960s. A highly invasive freshwater fish, it is currently found in at least 32 countries outside its native range. Here we analyse a 700 base pair fragment of the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene to examine different models of colonisation and spread within the invasive range, and to investigate the factors that may have contributed to their invasion success. Haplotype and nucleotide diversity of the introduced populations from continental Europe was higher than that of the native populations, although two recently introduced populations from the British Isles showed low levels of variability. Based on coalescent theory, all introduced and some native populations showed a relative excess of nucleotide diversity compared to haplotype diversity. This suggests that these populations are not in mutation-drift equilibrium, but rather that the relative inflated level of nucleotide diversity is consistent with recent admixture. This study elucidates the colonisation patterns of P. parva in Europe and provides an evolutionary framework of their invasion. It supports the hypothesis that their European colonisation was initiated by their introduction to a single location or small geographic area with subsequent complex pattern of spread including both long distance and stepping-stone dispersal. Furthermore, it was preceded by, or associated with, the admixture of genetically diverse source populations that may have augmented its invasive-potential.

  13. Global Ocean Sedimentation Patterns: Plate Tectonic History Versus Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goswami, A.; Reynolds, E.; Olson, P.; Hinnov, L. A.; Gnanadesikan, A.

    2014-12-01

    Global sediment data (Whittaker et al., 2013) and carbonate content data (Archer, 1996) allows examination of ocean sedimentation evolution with respect to age of the underlying ocean crust (Müller et al., 2008). From these data, we construct time series of ocean sediment thickness and carbonate deposition rate for the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian ocean basins for the past 120 Ma. These time series are unique to each basin and reflect an integrated response to plate tectonics and climate change. The goal is to parameterize ocean sedimentation tied to crustal age for paleoclimate studies. For each basin, total sediment thickness and carbonate deposition rate from 0.1 x 0.1 degree cells are binned according to basement crustal age; area-corrected moments (mean, variance, etc.) are calculated for each bin. Segmented linear fits identify trends in present-day carbonate deposition rates and changes in ocean sedimentation from 0 to 120 Ma. In the North and South Atlantic and Indian oceans, mean sediment thickness versus crustal age is well represented by three linear segments, with the slope of each segment increasing with increasing crustal age. However, the transition age between linear segments varies among the three basins. In contrast, mean sediment thickness in the North and South Pacific oceans are numerically smaller and well represented by two linear segments with slopes that decrease with increasing crustal age. These opposing trends are more consistent with the plate tectonic history of each basin being the controlling factor in sedimentation rates, rather than climate change. Unlike total sediment thickness, carbonate deposition rates decrease smoothly with crustal age in all basins, with the primary controls being ocean chemistry and water column depth.References: Archer, D., 1996, Global Biogeochem. Cycles 10, 159-174.Müller, R.D., et al., 2008, Science, 319, 1357-1362.Whittaker, J., et al., 2013, Geochem., Geophys., Geosyst. DOI: 10.1002/ggge.20181

  14. Temporal Pattern of Online Communication Spike Trains in Spreading a Scientific Rumor: How Often, Who Interacts with Whom?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ceyda eSanli

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available We study complex time series (spike trains of online user communication while spreading messages about the discovery of the Higgs boson in Twitter. We focus on online social interactions among users such as retweet, mention, and reply, and construct different types of active (performing an action and passive (receiving an action spike trains for each user. The spike trains are analyzed by means of local variation, to quantify the temporal behavior of active and passive users, as a function of their activity and popularity. We show that the active spike trains are bursty, independently of their activation frequency. For passive spike trains, in contrast, the local variation of popular users presents uncorrelated (Poisson random dynamics. We further characterize the correlations of the local variation in different interactions. We obtain high values of correlation, and thus consistent temporal behavior, between retweets and mentions, but only for popular users, indicating that creating online attention suggests an alignment in the dynamics of the two interactions.

  15. Global Research Patterns on Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gizzi, Fabrizio Terenzio; Leucci, Giovanni

    2018-05-01

    The article deals with the analysis of worldwide research patterns concerning ground penetrating radar (GPR) during 1995-2014. To do this, the Thomson Reuters' Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED) and the Social Sciences Citation Index accessed via the Web of Science Core Collection were the two bibliographic databases taken as a reference. We pay attention to the document typology and language, the publication trend and citations, the subject categories and journals, the collaborations between authors, the productivity of the authors, the most cited articles, the countries and the institutions involved, and other hot issues. Concerning the main research subfields involving GPR use, there were five, physical-mathematical, sedimentological-stratigraphical, civil engineering/engineering geology/cultural heritage, hydrological (HD), and glaciological (GL), subfields.

  16. Patterns and Features of Global Uranium Resources and Production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Feifei; Song, Zisheng; Cheng, Xianghu; Huanhuan, MA

    2017-11-01

    With the entry into force of the Paris Agreement, the development of clean and low-carbon energy has become the consensus of the world. Nuclear power is one energy that can be vigorously developed today and in the future. Its sustainable development depends on a sufficient supply of uranium resources. It is of great practical significance to understand the distribution pattern of uranium resources and production. Based on the latest international authoritative reports and data, this paper analysed the distribution of uranium resources, the distribution of resources and production in the world, and the developing tendency in future years. The results show that the distribution of uranium resources is uneven in the world, and the discrepancies between different type deposits is very large. Among them, sandstone-type uranium deposits will become the main type owing to their advantages of wide distribution, minor environmental damage, mature mining technology and high economic benefit.

  17. Global patterns of interaction specialization in bird-flower networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zanata, Thais B.; Dalsgaard, Bo; Passos, Fernando C.

    2017-01-01

    , such as plant species richness, asymmetry, latitude, insularity, topography, sampling methods and intensity. Results: Hummingbird–flower networks were more specialized than honeyeater–flower networks. Specifically, hummingbird–flower networks had a lower proportion of realized interactions (lower C), decreased...... in the interaction patterns with their floral resources. Location: Americas, Africa, Asia and Oceania/Australia. Methods: We compiled interaction networks between birds and floral resources for 79 hummingbird, nine sunbird and 33 honeyeater communities. Interaction specialization was quantified through connectance...... (C), complementary specialization (H2′), binary (QB) and weighted modularity (Q), with both observed and null-model corrected values. We compared interaction specialization among the three types of bird–flower communities, both independently and while controlling for potential confounding variables...

  18. Metofluthrin: investigations into the use of a volatile spatial pyrethroid in a global spread of dengue, chikungunya and Zika viruses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buhagiar, Tamara S; Devine, Gregor J; Ritchie, Scott A

    2017-05-30

    Metofluthrin reduces biting activity in Aedes aegypti through the confusion, knockdown, and subsequent kill of a mosquito. A geographical spread in dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses, increases intervention demands. Response to a Zika outbreak may require a different strategy than dengue, as high-risk individuals, specifically pregnant women, need to be targeted. In semi-field conditions within a residential property in Cairns, Queensland, the impacts of metofluthrin on biting behaviour of free-flying Wolbachia-infected Ae. aegypti were evaluated. Mortality in Ae. aegypti exposed to metofluthrin over a 22 h period was 100% compared to 2.7% in an untreated room. No biting activity was observed in mosquitoes up to 5 m from the emanator after 10 min of metofluthrin exposure. Use of metofluthrin reduced biting activity up to 8 m, regardless of the host's proximity (near or far) to a dark harbourage area (HA) (P metofluthrin emanator, the host was most likely bitten when located immediately next to a HA (within 1 m) versus 8 m away from the HA (P = 0.006). The addition of a ceiling fan (0.8 m/s airflow) prevented all biting activity after 10 min of metofluthrin exposure. Previously unexposed Ae. aegypti were less likely to reach the host in a metofluthrin-treated room [Formula: see text]= 31%) compared to an untreated room ([Formula: see text]) (P metofluthrin to infiltrate protected locations within a room causing knockdown in caged mosquitoes, required more time than exposed locations (P Metofluthrin is effective in interrupting indoor host-seeking in Ae. aegypti. Metofluthrin's efficacy is increased by centrally locating the emanator in the room, and by using a fan to increase airflow. Newly treated rooms may require a period of 2-4 h for sufficient distribution of the metofluthrin into protected locations where mosquitoes may be resting.

  19. In-roads to the spread of antibiotic resistance: regional patterns of microbial transmission in northern coastal Ecuador

    OpenAIRE

    Eisenberg, Joseph N. S.; Goldstick, Jason; Cevallos, William; Trueba, Gabriel; Levy, Karen; Scott, James; Percha, Bethany; Segovia, Rosana; Ponce, Karina; Hubbard, Alan; Marrs, Carl; Foxman, Betsy; Smith, David L.; Trostle, James

    2011-01-01

    The evolution of antibiotic resistance (AR) increases treatment cost and probability of failure, threatening human health worldwide. The relative importance of individual antibiotic use, environmental transmission and rates of introduction of resistant bacteria in explaining community AR patterns is poorly understood. Evaluating their relative importance requires studying a region where they vary. The construction of a new road in a previously roadless area of northern coastal Ecuador provide...

  20. Global patterns in threats to vertebrates by biological invasions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellard, C.; Genovesi, P.; Jeschke, J. M.

    2016-01-01

    Biological invasions as drivers of biodiversity loss have recently been challenged. Fundamentally, we must know where species that are threatened by invasive alien species (IAS) live, and the degree to which they are threatened. We report the first study linking 1372 vertebrates threatened by more than 200 IAS from the completely revised Global Invasive Species Database. New maps of the vulnerability of threatened vertebrates to IAS permit assessments of whether IAS have a major influence on biodiversity, and if so, which taxonomic groups are threatened and where they are threatened. We found that centres of IAS-threatened vertebrates are concentrated in the Americas, India, Indonesia, Australia and New Zealand. The areas in which IAS-threatened species are located do not fully match the current hotspots of invasions, or the current hotspots of threatened species. The relative importance of biological invasions as drivers of biodiversity loss clearly varies across regions and taxa, and changes over time, with mammals from India, Indonesia, Australia and Europe are increasingly being threatened by IAS. The chytrid fungus primarily threatens amphibians, whereas invasive mammals primarily threaten other vertebrates. The differences in IAS threats between regions and taxa can help efficiently target IAS, which is essential for achieving the Strategic Plan 2020 of the Convention on Biological Diversity. PMID:26817767

  1. Spatial and temporal patterns of global onshore wind speed distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou, Yuyu; Smith, Steven J

    2013-01-01

    Wind power, a renewable energy source, can play an important role in electrical energy generation. Information regarding wind energy potential is important both for energy related modeling and for decision-making in the policy community. While wind speed datasets with high spatial and temporal resolution are often ultimately used for detailed planning, simpler assumptions are often used in analysis work. An accurate representation of the wind speed frequency distribution is needed in order to properly characterize wind energy potential. Using a power density method, this study estimated global variation in wind parameters as fitted to a Weibull density function using NCEP/climate forecast system reanalysis (CFSR) data over land areas. The Weibull distribution performs well in fitting the time series wind speed data at most locations according to R 2 , root mean square error, and power density error. The wind speed frequency distribution, as represented by the Weibull k parameter, exhibits a large amount of spatial variation, a regionally varying amount of seasonal variation, and relatively low decadal variation. We also analyzed the potential error in wind power estimation when a commonly assumed Rayleigh distribution (Weibull k = 2) is used. We find that the assumption of the same Weibull parameter across large regions can result in non-negligible errors. While large-scale wind speed data are often presented in the form of mean wind speeds, these results highlight the need to also provide information on the wind speed frequency distribution. (letter)

  2. Global patterns in human consumption of net primary production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imhoff, Marc L.; Bounoua, Lahouari; Ricketts, Taylor; Loucks, Colby; Harriss, Robert; Lawrence, William T.

    2004-06-01

    The human population and its consumption profoundly affect the Earth's ecosystems. A particularly compelling measure of humanity's cumulative impact is the fraction of the planet's net primary production that we appropriate for our own use. Net primary production-the net amount of solar energy converted to plant organic matter through photosynthesis-can be measured in units of elemental carbon and represents the primary food energy source for the world's ecosystems. Human appropriation of net primary production, apart from leaving less for other species to use, alters the composition of the atmosphere, levels of biodiversity, energy flows within food webs and the provision of important ecosystem services. Here we present a global map showing the amount of net primary production required by humans and compare it to the total amount generated on the landscape. We then derive a spatial balance sheet of net primary production `supply' and `demand' for the world. We show that human appropriation of net primary production varies spatially from almost zero to many times the local primary production. These analyses reveal the uneven footprint of human consumption and related environmental impacts, indicate the degree to which human populations depend on net primary production `imports' and suggest policy options for slowing future growth of human appropriation of net primary production.

  3. Travelling Policies and Global Buzzwords: How International Non-Governmental Organizations and Charities Spread the Word about Early Childhood in the Global South

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penn, Helen

    2011-01-01

    This article is based on a web-search commissioned by an international charity to review the work of international non-governmental organizations (INGOs) and charities which promote and support early childhood education and care (ECEC) in the global South. The article examines examples of such initiatives. It is suggested that there is…

  4. Spatio-temporal pattern analysis for evaluation of the spread of human infections with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus in China, 2013-2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Wen; Yang, Kun; Xu, Quanli; Liu, Lin; Chen, Juan

    2017-10-24

    A large number (n = 460) of A(H7N9) human infections have been reported in China from March 2013 through December 2014, and H7N9 outbreaks in humans became an emerging issue for China health, which have caused numerous disease outbreaks in domestic poultry and wild bird populations, and threatened human health severely. The aims of this study were to investigate the directional trend of the epidemic and to identify the significant presence of spatial-temporal clustering of influenza A(H7N9) human cases between March 2013 and December 2014. Three distinct epidemic phases of A(H7N9) human infections were identified in this study. In each phase, standard deviational ellipse analysis was conducted to examine the directional trend of disease spreading, and retrospective space-time permutation scan statistic was then used to identify the spatio-temporal cluster patterns of H7N9 outbreaks in humans. The ever-changing location and the increasing size of the three identified standard deviational ellipses showed that the epidemic moved from east to southeast coast, and hence to some central regions, with a future epidemiological trend of continue dispersing to more central regions of China, and a few new human cases might also appear in parts of the western China. Furthermore, A(H7N9) human infections were clustering in space and time in the first two phases with five significant spatio-temporal clusters (p < 0.05), but there was no significant cluster identified in phase III. There was a new epidemiologic pattern that the decrease in significant spatio-temporal cluster of A(H7N9) human infections was accompanied with an obvious spatial expansion of the outbreaks during the study period, and identification of the spatio-temporal patterns of the epidemic can provide valuable insights for better understanding the spreading dynamics of the disease in China.

  5. Patterns of change: whose fingerprint is seen in global warming?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hegerl, Gabriele; Zwiers, Francis; Tebaldi, Claudia

    2011-01-01

    Attributing observed climate change to causes is challenging. This letter communicates the physical arguments used in attribution, and the statistical methods applied to explore to what extent different possible causes can be used to explain the recent climate records. The methods use fingerprints of climate change that are identified on the basis of the physics governing our climate system, and through the use of climate model experiments. These fingerprints characterize the geographical and vertical pattern of the expected changes caused by external influences, for example, greenhouse gas increases and changes in solar radiation, taking also into account how these forcings and their effects vary over time. These time–space fingerprints can be used to discriminate between observed climate changes caused by different external factors. Attribution assessments necessarily take the natural variability of the climate system into account as well, evaluating whether an observed change can be explained in terms of this internal variability alone, and estimating the contribution of this source of variability to the observed change. Hence the assessment that a large part of the observed recent warming is anthropogenic is based on a rigorous quantitative analysis of these joint drivers and their effects, and proceeds through a much more comprehensive and layered analysis than a comparison at face value of model simulations with observations.

  6. Global patterns in the poleward expansion of mangrove forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavanaugh, K. C.; Feller, I. C.

    2016-12-01

    Understanding the processes that limit the geographic ranges of species is one of the central goals of ecology and biogeography. This issue is particularly relevant for coastal wetlands given that climate change is expected to lead to a `tropicalization' of temperate coastal and marine ecosystems. In coastal wetlands around the world, there have already been observations of mangroves expanding into salt marshes near the current poleward range limits of mangroves. However, there is still uncertainty regarding regional variability in the factors that control mangrove range limits. Here we used time series of Landsat satellite imagery to characterize patterns of mangrove abundance near their poleward range limits around the world. We tested the commonly held assumption that temporal variation in abundance should increase towards the edge of the range. We also compared variability in mangrove abundance to climate factors thought to set mangrove range limits (air temperature, water temperature, and aridity). In general, variability in mangrove abundance at range edges was high relative to range centers and this variability was correlated to one or more climate factors. However, the strength of these relationships varied among poleward range limits, suggesting that some mangrove range limits are control by processes other than climate, such as dispersal limitation.

  7. Global patterns of protection of elevational gradients in mountain ranges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elsen, Paul R; Monahan, William B; Merenlender, Adina M

    2018-05-21

    Protected areas (PAs) that span elevational gradients enhance protection for taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity and facilitate species range shifts under climate change. We quantified the global protection of elevational gradients by analyzing the elevational distributions of 44,155 PAs in 1,010 mountain ranges using the highest resolution digital elevation models available. We show that, on average, mountain ranges in Africa and Asia have the lowest elevational protection, ranges in Europe and South America have intermediate elevational protection, and ranges in North America and Oceania have the highest elevational protection. We use the Convention on Biological Diversity's Aichi Target 11 to assess the proportion of elevational gradients meeting the 17% suggested minimum target and examine how different protection categories contribute to elevational protection. When considering only strict PAs [International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) categories I-IV, n = 24,706], nearly 40% of ranges do not contain any PAs, roughly half fail to meet the 17% target at any elevation, and ∼75% fail to meet the target throughout ≥50% of the elevational gradient. Observed elevational protection is well below optimal, and frequently below a null model of elevational protection. Including less stringent PAs (IUCN categories V-VI and nondesignated PAs, n = 19,449) significantly enhances elevational protection for most continents, but several highly biodiverse ranges require new or expanded PAs to increase elevational protection. Ensuring conservation outcomes for PAs with lower IUCN designations as well as strategically placing PAs to better represent and connect elevational gradients will enhance ecological representation and facilitate species range shifts under climate change. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

  8. A global airport-based risk model for the spread of dengue infection via the air transport network.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lauren Gardner

    Full Text Available The number of travel-acquired dengue infections has seen a consistent global rise over the past decade. An increased volume of international passenger air traffic originating from regions with endemic dengue has contributed to a rise in the number of dengue cases in both areas of endemicity and elsewhere. This paper reports results from a network-based risk assessment model which uses international passenger travel volumes, travel routes, travel distances, regional populations, and predictive species distribution models (for the two vector species, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus to quantify the relative risk posed by each airport in importing passengers with travel-acquired dengue infections. Two risk attributes are evaluated: (i the risk posed by through traffic at each stopover airport and (ii the risk posed by incoming travelers to each destination airport. The model results prioritize optimal locations (i.e., airports for targeted dengue surveillance. The model is easily extendible to other vector-borne diseases.

  9. Coupled local facilitation and global hydrologic inhibition drive landscape geometry in a patterned peatland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acharya, S.; Kaplan, D. A.; Casey, S.; Cohen, M. J.; Jawitz, J. W.

    2015-05-01

    Self-organized landscape patterning can arise in response to multiple processes. Discriminating among alternative patterning mechanisms, particularly where experimental manipulations are untenable, requires process-based models. Previous modeling studies have attributed patterning in the Everglades (Florida, USA) to sediment redistribution and anisotropic soil hydraulic properties. In this work, we tested an alternate theory, the self-organizing-canal (SOC) hypothesis, by developing a cellular automata model that simulates pattern evolution via local positive feedbacks (i.e., facilitation) coupled with a global negative feedback based on hydrology. The model is forced by global hydroperiod that drives stochastic transitions between two patch types: ridge (higher elevation) and slough (lower elevation). We evaluated model performance using multiple criteria based on six statistical and geostatistical properties observed in reference portions of the Everglades landscape: patch density, patch anisotropy, semivariogram ranges, power-law scaling of ridge areas, perimeter area fractal dimension, and characteristic pattern wavelength. Model results showed strong statistical agreement with reference landscapes, but only when anisotropically acting local facilitation was coupled with hydrologic global feedback, for which several plausible mechanisms exist. Critically, the model correctly generated fractal landscapes that had no characteristic pattern wavelength, supporting the invocation of global rather than scale-specific negative feedbacks.

  10. Competition, transmission and pattern evolution: A network analysis of global oil trade

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Hai-Ying; Ji, Qiang; Fan, Ying

    2014-01-01

    This paper studies the competition among oil importers using complex network theory, combined with several alternative measures of competition intensity, to analyze the evolution of the pattern and transmission of oil-trading competition. The results indicate that oil trade has formed a global competition pattern and that the role played by the Asian-Pacific region in the evolution of this competition pattern is becoming increasingly prominent. In addition, global competition intensity has continued to rise, and non-OECD countries have become the main driving force for this increase in global competition intensity. The large oil importers are the most significant parts of the global oil-trading competition pattern. They are not only the major participants in the competition for oil resources but also play important roles in the transmission of oil-trading competition. China and the United States especially display the feature of globalization, whose impacts of transmission reach across the whole oil-trading competition network. Finally, a “5C” (changeability, contestability, cooperation, commitment and circumstances) policy framework is put forward to maintain the stability of oil trade and improve the energy security of oil importers in various aspects. - Highlights: • An oil-trading competition network is constructed using complex network theory. • Oil trade has formed a global competition pattern and its intensity has kept rising. • The status of the Asian-Pacific region in the competition pattern becomes prominent. • Large oil importers play important roles in transmitting the trading competition. • A “5C” policy framework is put forward to cope with the intensive competition

  11. The global partnership: its achievements, missed opportunities and potential to address future threats from the spread of CBRN materials and expertise - 59335

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heyes, Alan; Bowen, Wyn; Chalmers, Hugh

    2012-01-01

    Document available in abstract form only. Full text of publication follows: In 2002, the G8 launched the Global Partnership (GP) against the Spread of Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction. The partnerships budget was placed at $20 billion over 10 years, and it was supported by some 23 countries and the European Union (EU).Though it has had little public recognition, the partnership has been one of the G8's most successful initiatives and has led to many benefits, including improved international security and addressing a sizeable proportion of the Cold War nuclear and chemical weapons arsenal in the Former Soviet Union. Its future, however, remains undecided, as its funding is set to expire in less than two years. In 2009 and 2010 Kings College London with generous funding support from the US John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, carried out a detailed evaluation of the achievements and benefits of the GP to date, its failings and lost opportunities, and potential future direction. Our findings indicate that the partnership has aided security in the Former Soviet Union and had a significant number of wider benefits with the potential to continue to do the same on a broader geographic level in future. As such, it is a valuable tool to assist the international community to work together to address global threats relating to chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear materials and related expertise and the G8 should take steps to renew its funding. (authors)

  12. Comparison of tests for spatial heterogeneity on data with global clustering patterns and outliers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hachey Mark

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The ability to evaluate geographic heterogeneity of cancer incidence and mortality is important in cancer surveillance. Many statistical methods for evaluating global clustering and local cluster patterns are developed and have been examined by many simulation studies. However, the performance of these methods on two extreme cases (global clustering evaluation and local anomaly (outlier detection has not been thoroughly investigated. Methods We compare methods for global clustering evaluation including Tango's Index, Moran's I, and Oden's I*pop; and cluster detection methods such as local Moran's I and SaTScan elliptic version on simulated count data that mimic global clustering patterns and outliers for cancer cases in the continental United States. We examine the power and precision of the selected methods in the purely spatial analysis. We illustrate Tango's MEET and SaTScan elliptic version on a 1987-2004 HIV and a 1950-1969 lung cancer mortality data in the United States. Results For simulated data with outlier patterns, Tango's MEET, Moran's I and I*pop had powers less than 0.2, and SaTScan had powers around 0.97. For simulated data with global clustering patterns, Tango's MEET and I*pop (with 50% of total population as the maximum search window had powers close to 1. SaTScan had powers around 0.7-0.8 and Moran's I has powers around 0.2-0.3. In the real data example, Tango's MEET indicated the existence of global clustering patterns in both the HIV and lung cancer mortality data. SaTScan found a large cluster for HIV mortality rates, which is consistent with the finding from Tango's MEET. SaTScan also found clusters and outliers in the lung cancer mortality data. Conclusion SaTScan elliptic version is more efficient for outlier detection compared with the other methods evaluated in this article. Tango's MEET and Oden's I*pop perform best in global clustering scenarios among the selected methods. The use of SaTScan for

  13. Novel measurement of spreading pattern of influenza epidemic by using weighted standard distance method: retrospective spatial statistical study of influenza, Japan, 1999-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shobugawa, Yugo; Wiafe, Seth A; Saito, Reiko; Suzuki, Tsubasa; Inaida, Shinako; Taniguchi, Kiyosu; Suzuki, Hiroshi

    2012-06-19

    Annual influenza epidemics occur worldwide resulting in considerable morbidity and mortality. Spreading pattern of influenza is not well understood because it is often hampered by the quality of surveillance data that limits the reliability of analysis. In Japan, influenza is reported on a weekly basis from 5,000 hospitals and clinics nationwide under the scheme of the National Infectious Disease Surveillance. The collected data are available to the public as weekly reports which were summarized into number of patient visits per hospital or clinic in each of the 47 prefectures. From this surveillance data, we analyzed the spatial spreading patterns of influenza epidemics using weekly weighted standard distance (WSD) from the 1999/2000 through 2008/2009 influenza seasons in Japan. WSD is a single numerical value representing the spatial compactness of influenza outbreak, which is small in case of clustered distribution and large in case of dispersed distribution. We demonstrated that the weekly WSD value or the measure of spatial compactness of the distribution of reported influenza cases, decreased to its lowest value before each epidemic peak in nine out of ten seasons analyzed. The duration between the lowest WSD week and the peak week of influenza cases ranged from minus one week to twenty weeks. The duration showed significant negative association with the proportion of influenza A/H3N2 cases in early phase of each outbreak (correlation coefficient was -0.75, P = 0.012) and significant positive association with the proportion of influenza B cases in the early phase (correlation coefficient was 0.64, P = 0.045), but positively correlated with the proportion of influenza A/H1N1 strain cases (statistically not significant). It is assumed that the lowest WSD values just before influenza peaks are due to local outbreak which results in small standard distance values. As influenza cases disperse nationwide and an epidemic reaches its peak, WSD value changed to be a

  14. Novel measurement of spreading pattern of influenza epidemic by using weighted standard distance method: retrospective spatial statistical study of influenza, Japan, 1999–2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shobugawa Yugo

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Annual influenza epidemics occur worldwide resulting in considerable morbidity and mortality. Spreading pattern of influenza is not well understood because it is often hampered by the quality of surveillance data that limits the reliability of analysis. In Japan, influenza is reported on a weekly basis from 5,000 hospitals and clinics nationwide under the scheme of the National Infectious Disease Surveillance. The collected data are available to the public as weekly reports which were summarized into number of patient visits per hospital or clinic in each of the 47 prefectures. From this surveillance data, we analyzed the spatial spreading patterns of influenza epidemics using weekly weighted standard distance (WSD from the 1999/2000 through 2008/2009 influenza seasons in Japan. WSD is a single numerical value representing the spatial compactness of influenza outbreak, which is small in case of clustered distribution and large in case of dispersed distribution. Results We demonstrated that the weekly WSD value or the measure of spatial compactness of the distribution of reported influenza cases, decreased to its lowest value before each epidemic peak in nine out of ten seasons analyzed. The duration between the lowest WSD week and the peak week of influenza cases ranged from minus one week to twenty weeks. The duration showed significant negative association with the proportion of influenza A/H3N2 cases in early phase of each outbreak (correlation coefficient was −0.75, P = 0.012 and significant positive association with the proportion of influenza B cases in the early phase (correlation coefficient was 0.64, P = 0.045, but positively correlated with the proportion of influenza A/H1N1 strain cases (statistically not significant. It is assumed that the lowest WSD values just before influenza peaks are due to local outbreak which results in small standard distance values. As influenza cases disperse nationwide and an

  15. Novel measurement of spreading pattern of influenza epidemic by using weighted standard distance method: retrospective spatial statistical study of influenza, Japan, 1999–2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background Annual influenza epidemics occur worldwide resulting in considerable morbidity and mortality. Spreading pattern of influenza is not well understood because it is often hampered by the quality of surveillance data that limits the reliability of analysis. In Japan, influenza is reported on a weekly basis from 5,000 hospitals and clinics nationwide under the scheme of the National Infectious Disease Surveillance. The collected data are available to the public as weekly reports which were summarized into number of patient visits per hospital or clinic in each of the 47 prefectures. From this surveillance data, we analyzed the spatial spreading patterns of influenza epidemics using weekly weighted standard distance (WSD) from the 1999/2000 through 2008/2009 influenza seasons in Japan. WSD is a single numerical value representing the spatial compactness of influenza outbreak, which is small in case of clustered distribution and large in case of dispersed distribution. Results We demonstrated that the weekly WSD value or the measure of spatial compactness of the distribution of reported influenza cases, decreased to its lowest value before each epidemic peak in nine out of ten seasons analyzed. The duration between the lowest WSD week and the peak week of influenza cases ranged from minus one week to twenty weeks. The duration showed significant negative association with the proportion of influenza A/H3N2 cases in early phase of each outbreak (correlation coefficient was −0.75, P = 0.012) and significant positive association with the proportion of influenza B cases in the early phase (correlation coefficient was 0.64, P = 0.045), but positively correlated with the proportion of influenza A/H1N1 strain cases (statistically not significant). It is assumed that the lowest WSD values just before influenza peaks are due to local outbreak which results in small standard distance values. As influenza cases disperse nationwide and an epidemic reaches its peak

  16. Allocating Scarce Resources Strategically - An Evaluation and Discussion of the Global Fund's Pattern of Disbursements

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCoy, David; Kinyua, Kelvin

    2012-01-01

    Background The Global Fund is under pressure to improve its rationing of financial support. This study describes the GF's pattern of disbursements in relation to total health expenditure (THE), government health expenditure (GHE), income status and the burden of HIV/AIDS, TB and malaria. It also examines the potential for recipient countries to increase domestic public financing for health. Methods This is a cross-sectional study of 104 countries that received Global Fund disbursements in 2009. It analyses data on Global Fund disbursements; health financing indicators; government revenue and expenditure; and burden of disease. Findings Global Fund disbursements made up 0.37% of THE across all 104 countries; but with considerable country variation ranging from 0.002% to 53.4%. Global Fund disbursements to government amounted to 0.47% of GHE across the 104 countries, but again with considerable variation (in three countries more than half of GHE was based on Global Fund support). Although the Global Fund provides progressively more funding for lower income countries on average, there is much variation at the country such that here was no correlation between per capita GF disbursements and per capita THE, nor between per capita GF disbursement to government and per capita GHE. There was only a slight positive correlation between per capita GF disbursement and burden of disease. Several countries with a high degree of 'financial dependency' upon the Fund have the potential to increase levels of domestic financing for health. Discussion The Global Fund can improve its targeting of resources so that it better matches the pattern of global need. To do this it needs to: a) reduce the extent to which funds are allocated on a demand-driven basis; and b) align its funding model to broader health systems financing and patterns of health expenditure beyond the three diseases. PMID:22590496

  17. Allocating scarce resources strategically--an evaluation and discussion of the Global Fund's pattern of disbursements.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David McCoy

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The Global Fund is under pressure to improve its rationing of financial support. This study describes the GF's pattern of disbursements in relation to total health expenditure (THE, government health expenditure (GHE, income status and the burden of HIV/AIDS, TB and malaria. It also examines the potential for recipient countries to increase domestic public financing for health. METHODS: This is a cross-sectional study of 104 countries that received Global Fund disbursements in 2009. It analyses data on Global Fund disbursements; health financing indicators; government revenue and expenditure; and burden of disease. FINDINGS: Global Fund disbursements made up 0.37% of THE across all 104 countries; but with considerable country variation ranging from 0.002% to 53.4%. Global Fund disbursements to government amounted to 0.47% of GHE across the 104 countries, but again with considerable variation (in three countries more than half of GHE was based on Global Fund support. Although the Global Fund provides progressively more funding for lower income countries on average, there is much variation at the country such that here was no correlation between per capita GF disbursements and per capita THE, nor between per capita GF disbursement to government and per capita GHE. There was only a slight positive correlation between per capita GF disbursement and burden of disease. Several countries with a high degree of 'financial dependency' upon the Fund have the potential to increase levels of domestic financing for health. DISCUSSION: The Global Fund can improve its targeting of resources so that it better matches the pattern of global need. To do this it needs to: a reduce the extent to which funds are allocated on a demand-driven basis; and b align its funding model to broader health systems financing and patterns of health expenditure beyond the three diseases.

  18. Relative roles of climatic suitability and anthropogenic influence in determining the pattern of spread in a global invader

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Roura-Pascual, Núria; Hui, Cang; Ikeda, Takayoshi

    2011-01-01

    Because invasive species threaten the integrity of natural ecosystems, a major goal in ecology is to develop predictive models to determine which species may become widespread and where they may invade. Indeed, considerable progress has been made in understanding the factors that influence the lo...

  19. A global analysis of bird plumage patterns reveals no association between habitat and camouflage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marius Somveille

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Evidence suggests that animal patterns (motifs function in camouflage. Irregular mottled patterns can facilitate concealment when stationary in cluttered habitats, whereas regular patterns typically prevent capture during movement in open habitats. Bird plumage patterns have predominantly converged on just four types—mottled (irregular, scales, bars and spots (regular—and habitat could be driving convergent evolution in avian patterning. Based on sensory ecology, we therefore predict that irregular patterns would be associated with visually noisy closed habitats and that regular patterns would be associated with open habitats. Regular patterns have also been shown to function in communication for sexually competing males to stand-out and attract females, so we predict that male breeding plumage patterns evolved in both open and closed habitats. Here, taking phylogenetic relatedness into account, we investigate ecological selection for bird plumage patterns across the class Aves. We surveyed plumage patterns in 80% of all avian species worldwide. Of these, 2,756 bird species have regular and irregular plumage patterns as well as habitat information. In this subset, we tested whether adult breeding/non-breeding plumages in each sex, and juvenile plumages, were associated with the habitat types found within the species’ geographical distributions. We found no evidence for an association between habitat and plumage patterns across the world’s birds and little phylogenetic signal. We also found that species with regular and irregular plumage patterns were distributed randomly across the world’s eco-regions without being affected by habitat type. These results indicate that at the global spatial and taxonomic scale, habitat does not predict convergent evolution in bird plumage patterns, contrary to the camouflage hypothesis.

  20. A global analysis of bird plumage patterns reveals no association between habitat and camouflage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Somveille, Marius; Marshall, Kate L A; Gluckman, Thanh-Lan

    2016-01-01

    Evidence suggests that animal patterns (motifs) function in camouflage. Irregular mottled patterns can facilitate concealment when stationary in cluttered habitats, whereas regular patterns typically prevent capture during movement in open habitats. Bird plumage patterns have predominantly converged on just four types-mottled (irregular), scales, bars and spots (regular)-and habitat could be driving convergent evolution in avian patterning. Based on sensory ecology, we therefore predict that irregular patterns would be associated with visually noisy closed habitats and that regular patterns would be associated with open habitats. Regular patterns have also been shown to function in communication for sexually competing males to stand-out and attract females, so we predict that male breeding plumage patterns evolved in both open and closed habitats. Here, taking phylogenetic relatedness into account, we investigate ecological selection for bird plumage patterns across the class Aves. We surveyed plumage patterns in 80% of all avian species worldwide. Of these, 2,756 bird species have regular and irregular plumage patterns as well as habitat information. In this subset, we tested whether adult breeding/non-breeding plumages in each sex, and juvenile plumages, were associated with the habitat types found within the species' geographical distributions. We found no evidence for an association between habitat and plumage patterns across the world's birds and little phylogenetic signal. We also found that species with regular and irregular plumage patterns were distributed randomly across the world's eco-regions without being affected by habitat type. These results indicate that at the global spatial and taxonomic scale, habitat does not predict convergent evolution in bird plumage patterns, contrary to the camouflage hypothesis.

  1. Global Dispersal Pattern of HIV Type 1 Subtype CRF01_AE: A Genetic Trace of Human Mobility Related to Heterosexual Sexual Activities Centralized in Southeast Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angelis, Konstantinos; Albert, Jan; Mamais, Ioannis; Magiorkinis, Gkikas; Hatzakis, Angelos; Hamouda, Osamah; Struck, Daniel; Vercauteren, Jurgen; Wensing, Annemarie M J; Alexiev, Ivailo; Åsjö, Birgitta; Balotta, Claudia; Camacho, Ricardo J; Coughlan, Suzie; Griskevicius, Algirdas; Grossman, Zehava; Horban, Andrzej; Kostrikis, Leondios G; Lepej, Snjezana; Liitsola, Kirsi; Linka, Marek; Nielsen, Claus; Otelea, Dan; Paredes, Roger; Poljak, Mario; Puchhammer-Stöckl, Elisabeth; Schmit, Jean-Claude; Sönnerborg, Anders; Staneková, Danica; Stanojevic, Maja; Boucher, Charles A B; Kaplan, Lauren; Vandamme, Anne-Mieke; Paraskevis, Dimitrios

    2015-06-01

    Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) subtype CRF01_AE originated in Africa and then passed to Thailand, where it established a major epidemic. Despite the global presence of CRF01_AE, little is known about its subsequent dispersal pattern. We assembled a global data set of 2736 CRF01_AE sequences by pooling sequences from public databases and patient-cohort studies. We estimated viral dispersal patterns, using statistical phylogeographic analysis run over bootstrap trees estimated by the maximum likelihood method. We show that Thailand has been the source of viral dispersal to most areas worldwide, including 17 of 20 sampled countries in Europe. Japan, Singapore, Vietnam, and other Asian countries have played a secondary role in the viral dissemination. In contrast, China and Taiwan have mainly imported strains from neighboring Asian countries, North America, and Africa without any significant viral exportation. The central role of Thailand in the global spread of CRF01_AE can be probably explained by the popularity of Thailand as a vacation destination characterized by sex tourism and by Thai emigration to the Western world. Our study highlights the unique case of CRF01_AE, the only globally distributed non-B clade whose global dispersal did not originate in Africa. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  2. Towards global patterns in the diversity and community structure of ectomycorrhizal fungi

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tedersoo, Leho; Bahram, Mohammad; Toots, Märt

    2012-01-01

    Global species richness patterns of soil micro-organisms remain poorly understood compared to macro-organisms. We use a global analysis to disentangle the global determinants of diversity and community composition for ectomycorrhizal (EcM) fungi—microbial symbionts that play key roles in plant...... nutrition in most temperate and many tropical forest ecosystems. Host plant family has the strongest effect on the phylogenetic community composition of fungi, whereas temperature and precipitation mostly affect EcM fungal richness that peaks in the temperate and boreal forest biomes, contrasting...... with latitudinal patterns of macro-organisms. Tropical ecosystems experience rapid turnover of organic material and have weak soil stratification, suggesting that poor habitat conditions may contribute to the relatively low richness of EcM fungi, and perhaps other soil biota, in most tropical ecosystems. For EcM...

  3. Global vegetation-fire pattern under different land use and climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thonicke, K.; Poulter, B.; Heyder, U.; Gumpenberger, M.; Cramer, W.

    2008-12-01

    Fire is a process of global significance in the Earth System influencing vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling and biophysical feedbacks. Naturally ignited wildfires have long history in the Earth System. Humans have been using fire to shape the landscape for their purposes for many millenia, sometimes influencing the status of the vegetation remarkably as for example in Mediterranean-type ecosystems. Processes and drivers describing fire danger, ignitions, fire spread and effects are relatively well-known for many fire-prone ecosystems. Modeling these has a long tradition in fire-affected regions to predict fire risk and behavior for fire-fighting purposes. On the other hand, the global vegetation community realized the importance of disturbances to be recognized in their global vegetation models with fire being globally most important and so-far best studied. First attempts to simulate fire globally considered a minimal set of drivers, whereas recent developments attempt to consider each fire process separately. The process-based fire model SPITFIRE (SPread and InTensity of FIRE) simulates these processes embedded in the LPJ DGVM. Uncertainties still arise from missing measurements for some parameters in less-studied fire regimes, or from broad PFT classifications which subsume different fire-ecological adaptations and tolerances. Some earth observation data sets as well as fire emission models help to evaluate seasonality and spatial distribution of simulated fire ignitions, area burnt and fire emissions within SPITFIRE. Deforestation fires are a major source of carbon released to the atmosphere in the tropics; in the Amazon basin it is the second-largest contributor to Brazils GHG emissions. How ongoing deforestation affects fire regimes, forest stability and biogeochemical cycling in the Amazon basin under present climate conditions will be presented. Relative importance of fire vs. climate and land use change is analyzed. Emissions resulting from

  4. Global patterns of foliar nitrogen isotopes and their relationships with climate, mycorrhizal fungi, foliar nutrient concentrations, and nitrogen availability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph M. Craine; Andrew J. Elmore; Marcos P. M. Aidar; Mercedes Bustamante; Todd E. Dawson; Erik A. Hobbie; Ansgar Kahmen; Michelle C. Mack; Kendra K. McLauchlan; Anders Michelsen; Gabriela Nardoto; Linda H. Pardo; Josep Penuelas; Peter B. Reich; Edward A.G. Schuur; William D. Stock; Pamela H. Templer; Ross A. Virginia; Jeffrey M. Welker; Ian J. Wright

    2009-01-01

    Ratios of nitrogen (N) isotopes in leaves could elucidate underlying patterns of N cycling across ecological gradients. To better understand global-scale patterns of N cycling, we compiled data on foliar N isotope ratios, foliar N concentrations, mycorrhizal type and climate for over 11 000 plants worldwide. Global-scale comparisons of other components of the N cycle...

  5. Global and Regional Patterns in Riverine Fish Species Richness: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thierry Oberdorff

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We integrate the respective role of global and regional factors driving riverine fish species richness patterns, to develop a synthetic model of potential mechanisms and processes generating these patterns. This framework allows species richness to be broken down into different components specific to each spatial extent and to establish links between these components and the processes involved. This framework should help to answer the questions that are currently being asked by society, including the effects of species invasions, habitat loss, or fragmentation and climate change on freshwater biodiversity.

  6. Local control of globally competing patterns in coupled Swift-Hohenberg equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, Maximilian; Frenzel, Thomas; Niedermayer, Thomas; Reichelt, Sina; Mielke, Alexander; Bär, Markus

    2018-04-01

    We present analytical and numerical investigations of two anti-symmetrically coupled 1D Swift-Hohenberg equations (SHEs) with cubic nonlinearities. The SHE provides a generic formulation for pattern formation at a characteristic length scale. A linear stability analysis of the homogeneous state reveals a wave instability in addition to the usual Turing instability of uncoupled SHEs. We performed weakly nonlinear analysis in the vicinity of the codimension-two point of the Turing-wave instability, resulting in a set of coupled amplitude equations for the Turing pattern as well as left- and right-traveling waves. In particular, these complex Ginzburg-Landau-type equations predict two major things: there exists a parameter regime where multiple different patterns are stable with respect to each other and that the amplitudes of different patterns interact by local mutual suppression. In consequence, different patterns can coexist in distinct spatial regions, separated by localized interfaces. We identified specific mechanisms for controlling the position of these interfaces, which distinguish what kinds of patterns the interface connects and thus allow for global pattern selection. Extensive simulations of the original SHEs confirm our results.

  7. Various oscillation patterns in phase models with locally attractive and globally repulsive couplings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, Katsuhiko; Shima, Shin-ichiro

    2015-10-01

    We investigate a phase model that includes both locally attractive and globally repulsive coupling in one dimension. This model exhibits nontrivial spatiotemporal patterns that have not been observed in systems that contain only local or global coupling. Depending on the relative strengths of the local and global coupling and on the form of global coupling, the system can show a spatially uniform state (in-phase synchronization), a monotonically increasing state (traveling wave), and three types of oscillations of relative phase difference. One of the oscillations of relative phase difference has the characteristic of being locally unstable but globally attractive. That is, any small perturbation to the periodic orbit in phase space destroys its periodic motion, but after a long time the system returns to the original periodic orbit. This behavior is closely related to the emergence of saddle two-cluster states for global coupling only, which are connected to each other by attractive heteroclinic orbits. The mechanism of occurrence of this type of oscillation is discussed.

  8. Global diversity patterns of freshwater fishes - potential victims of their own success

    OpenAIRE

    Pelayo-Villamil, P.; Guisande, C.; Vari, R. P.; Manjarres-Hernandez, A.; Garcia-Rosello, E.; Gonzalez-Dacosta, J.; Heine, J.; Vilas, L. G.; Patti, B.; Quinci, E. M.; Jimenez, L. F.; Granado-Lorencio, C.; Tedesco, Pablo; Lobo, J. M.

    2015-01-01

    AimTo examine the pattern and cumulative curve of descriptions of freshwater fishes world-wide, the geographical biases in the available information on that fauna, the relationship between species richness and geographical rarity of such fishes, as well as to assess the relative contributions of different environmental factors on these variables. LocationGlobal. MethodsModestR was used to summarize the geographical distribution of freshwater fish species using information available from data-...

  9. Patterns of spread and persistence of foot-and-mouth disease types A, O and Asia-1 in Turkey: a meta-population approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilbert, M; Aktas, S; Mohammed, H; Roeder, P; Sumption, K; Tufan, M; Slingenbergh, J

    2005-06-01

    Despite significant control efforts, foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) persists in Turkey, and new strains of serotypes A, O and Asia-1 are periodically reported to enter the country from the east. The status of FMD in Turkey is important regionally because the country forms a natural bridge between Asia where the disease is endemic, and Europe which has disease-free status. This study analysed spatial and temporal patterns of FMD occurrence in Turkey to explore factors associated with the disease's persistence and spread. Annual records of FMD distribution in Turkish provinces throughout 1990-2002, grouped by serotype (O, A and Asia 1), were analysed using geostatistical techniques to explore their spatial and temporal patterns. A meta-population model was used to test how disease status, expressed in terms of presence/absence, extinction, and colonization, and measured at the province level throughout the periods 1990-1996 and 1997 2002, could be predicted using province-level data on: ruminant livestock numbers; meat production-demand discrepancy (as a surrogate measure of animal and animal products marketing, i.e. long-distance contagion through the traffic of mainly live animals to urban centres); and the disease prevalence distribution as recorded for the previous year. A drastic overall reduction in FMD occurrence was observed from the period 1990-1996 to 1997-2002 when the disease was shown to retract into persistence islands. FMD occurrence was associated with host abundance, short distance contagion from adjacent provinces, and meat production-demand discrepancies. With FMD retracting into identified provinces, a shift in predictors of FMD occurrence was observed with a lower contribution of short-distance contagion, and a relatively higher association with meat production-demand discrepancies leading to live animal transport over long distances, and hence presenting opportunities for identifying critical-control points. The pattern of persistence differed

  10. Assessing the drivers shaping global patterns of urban vegetation landscape structure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobbs, C; Nitschke, C; Kendal, D

    2017-08-15

    Vegetation is one of the main resources involve in ecosystem functioning and providing ecosystem services in urban areas. Little is known on the landscape structure patterns of vegetation existing in urban areas at the global scale and the drivers of these patterns. We studied the landscape structure of one hundred cities around the globe, and their relation to demography (population), socioeconomic factors (GDP, Gini Index), climate factors (temperature and rain) and topographic characteristics (altitude, variation in altitude). The data revealed that the best descriptors of landscape structure were amount, fragmentation and spatial distribution of vegetation. Populated cities tend to have less, more fragmented, less connected vegetation with a centre of the city with low vegetation cover. Results also provided insights on the influence of socioeconomics at a global scale, as landscape structure was more fragmented in areas that are economically unequal and coming from emergent economies. This study shows the effects of the social system and climate on urban landscape patterns that gives useful insights for the distribution in the provision of ecosystem services in urban areas and therefore the maintenance of human well-being. This information can support local and global policy and planning which is committing our cities to provide accessible and inclusive green space for all urban inhabitants. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Global patterns of NDVI-indicated vegetation extremes and their sensitivity to climate extremes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Guo; Liu Hongyan; Yin Yi

    2013-01-01

    Extremes in climate have significant impacts on ecosystems and are expected to increase under future climate change. Extremes in vegetation could capture such impacts and indicate the vulnerability of ecosystems, but currently have not received a global long-term assessment. In this study, a robust method has been developed to detect significant extremes (low values) in biweekly time series of global normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from 1982 to 2006 and thus to acquire a global pattern of vegetation extreme frequency. This pattern coincides with vegetation vulnerability patterns suggested by earlier studies using different methods over different time spans, indicating a consistent mechanism of regulation. Vegetation extremes were found to aggregate in Amazonia and in the semi-arid and semi-humid regions in low and middle latitudes, while they seldom occurred in high latitudes. Among the environmental variables studied, extreme low precipitation has the highest slope against extreme vegetation. For the eight biomes analyzed, these slopes are highest in temperate broadleaf forest and temperate grassland, suggesting a higher sensitivity in these environments. The results presented here contradict the hypothesis that vegetation in water-limited semi-arid and semi-humid regions might be adapted to drought and suggest that vegetation in these regions (especially temperate broadleaf forest and temperate grassland) is highly prone to vegetation extreme events under more severe precipitation extremes. It is also suggested here that more attention be paid to precipitation-induced vegetation changes than to temperature-induced events. (letter)

  12. Investigation on the Patterns of Global Vegetation Change Using a Satellite-Sensed Vegetation Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ainong Li

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The pattern of vegetation change in response to global change still remains a controversial issue. A Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI dataset compiled by the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS was used for analysis. For the period 1982–2006, GIMMS-NDVI analysis indicated that monthly NDVI changes show homogenous trends in middle and high latitude areas in the northern hemisphere and within, or near, the Tropic of Cancer and Capricorn; with obvious spatio-temporal heterogeneity on a global scale over the past two decades. The former areas featured increasing vegetation activity during growth seasons, and the latter areas experienced an even greater amplitude in places where precipitation is adequate. The discussion suggests that one should be cautious of using the NDVI time-series to analyze local vegetation dynamics because of its coarse resolution and uncertainties.

  13. Large-scale distribution patterns of mangrove nematodes: A global meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brustolin, Marco C; Nagelkerken, Ivan; Fonseca, Gustavo

    2018-05-01

    Mangroves harbor diverse invertebrate communities, suggesting that macroecological distribution patterns of habitat-forming foundation species drive the associated faunal distribution. Whether these are driven by mangrove biogeography is still ambiguous. For small-bodied taxa, local factors and landscape metrics might be as important as macroecology. We performed a meta-analysis to address the following questions: (1) can richness of mangrove trees explain macroecological patterns of nematode richness? and (2) do local landscape attributes have equal or higher importance than biogeography in structuring nematode richness? Mangrove areas of Caribbean-Southwest Atlantic, Western Indian, Central Indo-Pacific, and Southwest Pacific biogeographic regions. We used random-effects meta-analyses based on natural logarithm of the response ratio (lnRR) to assess the importance of macroecology (i.e., biogeographic regions, latitude, longitude), local factors (i.e., aboveground mangrove biomass and tree richness), and landscape metrics (forest area and shape) in structuring nematode richness from 34 mangroves sites around the world. Latitude, mangrove forest area, and forest shape index explained 19% of the heterogeneity across studies. Richness was higher at low latitudes, closer to the equator. At local scales, richness increased slightly with landscape complexity and decreased with forest shape index. Our results contrast with biogeographic diversity patterns of mangrove-associated taxa. Global-scale nematode diversity may have evolved independently of mangrove tree richness, and diversity of small-bodied metazoans is probably more closely driven by latitude and associated climates, rather than local, landscape, or global biogeographic patterns.

  14. Patterns of Spatial Variation of Assemblages Associated with Intertidal Rocky Shores: A Global Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruz-Motta, Juan José; Miloslavich, Patricia; Palomo, Gabriela; Iken, Katrin; Konar, Brenda; Pohle, Gerhard; Trott, Tom; Benedetti-Cecchi, Lisandro; Herrera, César; Hernández, Alejandra; Sardi, Adriana; Bueno, Andrea; Castillo, Julio; Klein, Eduardo; Guerra-Castro, Edlin; Gobin, Judith; Gómez, Diana Isabel; Riosmena-Rodríguez, Rafael; Mead, Angela; Bigatti, Gregorio; Knowlton, Ann; Shirayama, Yoshihisa

    2010-01-01

    Assemblages associated with intertidal rocky shores were examined for large scale distribution patterns with specific emphasis on identifying latitudinal trends of species richness and taxonomic distinctiveness. Seventy-two sites distributed around the globe were evaluated following the standardized sampling protocol of the Census of Marine Life NaGISA project (www.nagisa.coml.org). There were no clear patterns of standardized estimators of species richness along latitudinal gradients or among Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs); however, a strong latitudinal gradient in taxonomic composition (i.e., proportion of different taxonomic groups in a given sample) was observed. Environmental variables related to natural influences were strongly related to the distribution patterns of the assemblages on the LME scale, particularly photoperiod, sea surface temperature (SST) and rainfall. In contrast, no environmental variables directly associated with human influences (with the exception of the inorganic pollution index) were related to assemblage patterns among LMEs. Correlations of the natural assemblages with either latitudinal gradients or environmental variables were equally strong suggesting that neither neutral models nor models based solely on environmental variables sufficiently explain spatial variation of these assemblages at a global scale. Despite the data shortcomings in this study (e.g., unbalanced sample distribution), we show the importance of generating biological global databases for the use in large-scale diversity comparisons of rocky intertidal assemblages to stimulate continued sampling and analyses. PMID:21179546

  15. Patterns of spatial variation of assemblages associated with intertidal rocky shores: a global perspective.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan José Cruz-Motta

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Assemblages associated with intertidal rocky shores were examined for large scale distribution patterns with specific emphasis on identifying latitudinal trends of species richness and taxonomic distinctiveness. Seventy-two sites distributed around the globe were evaluated following the standardized sampling protocol of the Census of Marine Life NaGISA project (www.nagisa.coml.org. There were no clear patterns of standardized estimators of species richness along latitudinal gradients or among Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs; however, a strong latitudinal gradient in taxonomic composition (i.e., proportion of different taxonomic groups in a given sample was observed. Environmental variables related to natural influences were strongly related to the distribution patterns of the assemblages on the LME scale, particularly photoperiod, sea surface temperature (SST and rainfall. In contrast, no environmental variables directly associated with human influences (with the exception of the inorganic pollution index were related to assemblage patterns among LMEs. Correlations of the natural assemblages with either latitudinal gradients or environmental variables were equally strong suggesting that neither neutral models nor models based solely on environmental variables sufficiently explain spatial variation of these assemblages at a global scale. Despite the data shortcomings in this study (e.g., unbalanced sample distribution, we show the importance of generating biological global databases for the use in large-scale diversity comparisons of rocky intertidal assemblages to stimulate continued sampling and analyses.

  16. Global control of colored moiré pattern in layered optical structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Kunyang; Zhou, Yangui; Pan, Di; Ma, Xueyan; Ma, Hongqin; Liang, Haowen; Zhou, Jianying

    2018-05-01

    Accurate description of visual effect of colored moiré pattern caused by layered optical structures consisting of gratings and Fresnel lens is proposed in this work. The colored moiré arising from the periodic and quasi-periodic structures is numerically simulated and experimentally verified. It is found that the visibility of moiré pattern generated by refractive optical elements is related to not only the spatial structures of gratings but also the viewing angles. To effectively control the moiré visibility, two constituting gratings are slightly separated. Such scheme is proved to be effective to globally eliminate moiré pattern for displays containing refractive optical films with quasi-periodic structures.

  17. Global Patterns of the Isotopic Composition of Soil and Plant Nitrogen

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amundson, R.; Yoo, K.

    2014-12-01

    From a societal perspective, soil N follows only soil C in the importance of soil to 21st century environmental issues. Amundson et al (2003) developed a mass balance model for soil N and the ratio of 15N/14N, and provided the first global projections of the spatial patterns of soil and plant δ15N values. It was hypothesized that state factors, particularly climate, should drive broad patterns of soil and plant δ15N values in a manner analogous to the known patterns of total soil N (e.g. Post et al., 1984). At that time, the N isotope data available to explore the effect of individual factors was modest. In the past decade, numerous papers from a broad spectrum of locations have created a rich database that can be used to further refine the initial projections made more than a decade ago. In this paper, hundreds of published measurements will be used to more deeply examine the climatic impacts on soil and plant δ15N values. Additionally, we will focus on the local controls of topography on ecosystem N cycling, which can create local isotopic variation that is similar in magnitude to the global effects of climate. The adoption of process-based models from the hillslope geomorphology community appears to be a powerful tool for explaining some existing data from toposequences, designing new studies of topographic controls on biogeochemistry, and particularly for parameterization in global models. Amundson, R., A.T. Austin, E.A.G. Schuur, K. Yoo, V. Matzek, C. Kendall, A. Uebersax, D. Brenner, and W.T. Baisden. 2003. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 17(1):1031.

  18. Seasonality of cholera from 1974 to 2005: a review of global patterns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feldacker Caryl

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The seasonality of cholera is described in various study areas throughout the world. However, no study examines how temporal cycles of the disease vary around the world or reviews its hypothesized causes. This paper reviews the literature on the seasonality of cholera and describes its temporal cycles by compiling and analyzing 32 years of global cholera data. This paper also provides a detailed literature review on regional patterns and environmental and climatic drivers of cholera patterns. Data, Methods, and Results Cholera data are compiled from 1974 to 2005 from the World Health Organization Weekly Epidemiological Reports, a database that includes all reported cholera cases in 140 countries. The data are analyzed to measure whether season, latitude, and their interaction are significantly associated with the country-level number of outbreaks in each of the 12 preceding months using separate negative binomial regression models for northern, southern, and combined hemispheres. Likelihood ratios tests are used to determine the model of best fit. The results suggest that cholera outbreaks demonstrate seasonal patterns in higher absolute latitudes, but closer to the equator, cholera outbreaks do not follow a clear seasonal pattern. Conclusion The findings suggest that environmental and climatic factors partially control the temporal variability of cholera. These results also indirectly contribute to the growing debate about the effects of climate change and global warming. As climate change threatens to increase global temperature, resulting rises in sea levels and temperatures may influence the temporal fluctuations of cholera, potentially increasing the frequency and duration of cholera outbreaks.

  19. Lattice model for influenza spreading with spontaneous behavioral changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fierro, Annalisa; Liccardo, Antonella

    2013-01-01

    Individual behavioral response to the spreading of an epidemic plays a crucial role in the progression of the epidemic itself. The risk perception induces individuals to adopt a protective behavior, as for instance reducing their social contacts, adopting more restrictive hygienic measures or undergoing prophylaxis procedures. In this paper, starting with a previously developed lattice-gas SIR model, we construct a coupled behavior-disease model for influenza spreading with spontaneous behavioral changes. The focus is on self-initiated behavioral changes that alter the susceptibility to the disease, without altering the contact patterns among individuals. Three different mechanisms of awareness spreading are analyzed: the local spreading due to the presence in the neighborhood of infective individuals; the global spreading due to the news published by the mass media and to educational campaigns implemented at institutional level; the local spreading occurring through the "thought contagion" among aware and unaware individuals. The peculiarity of the present approach is that the awareness spreading model is calibrated on available data on awareness and concern of the population about the risk of contagion. In particular, the model is validated against the A(H1N1) epidemic outbreak in Italy during the 2009/2010 season, by making use of the awareness data gathered by the behavioral risk factor surveillance system (PASSI). We find that, increasing the accordance between the simulated awareness spreading and the PASSI data on risk perception, the agreement between simulated and experimental epidemiological data improves as well. Furthermore, we show that, within our model, the primary mechanism to reproduce a realistic evolution of the awareness during an epidemic, is the one due to globally available information. This result highlights how crucial is the role of mass media and educational campaigns in influencing the epidemic spreading of infectious diseases.

  20. Lattice model for influenza spreading with spontaneous behavioral changes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annalisa Fierro

    Full Text Available Individual behavioral response to the spreading of an epidemic plays a crucial role in the progression of the epidemic itself. The risk perception induces individuals to adopt a protective behavior, as for instance reducing their social contacts, adopting more restrictive hygienic measures or undergoing prophylaxis procedures. In this paper, starting with a previously developed lattice-gas SIR model, we construct a coupled behavior-disease model for influenza spreading with spontaneous behavioral changes. The focus is on self-initiated behavioral changes that alter the susceptibility to the disease, without altering the contact patterns among individuals. Three different mechanisms of awareness spreading are analyzed: the local spreading due to the presence in the neighborhood of infective individuals; the global spreading due to the news published by the mass media and to educational campaigns implemented at institutional level; the local spreading occurring through the "thought contagion" among aware and unaware individuals. The peculiarity of the present approach is that the awareness spreading model is calibrated on available data on awareness and concern of the population about the risk of contagion. In particular, the model is validated against the A(H1N1 epidemic outbreak in Italy during the 2009/2010 season, by making use of the awareness data gathered by the behavioral risk factor surveillance system (PASSI. We find that, increasing the accordance between the simulated awareness spreading and the PASSI data on risk perception, the agreement between simulated and experimental epidemiological data improves as well. Furthermore, we show that, within our model, the primary mechanism to reproduce a realistic evolution of the awareness during an epidemic, is the one due to globally available information. This result highlights how crucial is the role of mass media and educational campaigns in influencing the epidemic spreading of infectious

  1. Methods for simultaneously identifying coherent local clusters with smooth global patterns in gene expression profiles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lee Yun-Shien

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The hierarchical clustering tree (HCT with a dendrogram 1 and the singular value decomposition (SVD with a dimension-reduced representative map 2 are popular methods for two-way sorting the gene-by-array matrix map employed in gene expression profiling. While HCT dendrograms tend to optimize local coherent clustering patterns, SVD leading eigenvectors usually identify better global grouping and transitional structures. Results This study proposes a flipping mechanism for a conventional agglomerative HCT using a rank-two ellipse (R2E, an improved SVD algorithm for sorting purpose seriation by Chen 3 as an external reference. While HCTs always produce permutations with good local behaviour, the rank-two ellipse seriation gives the best global grouping patterns and smooth transitional trends. The resulting algorithm automatically integrates the desirable properties of each method so that users have access to a clustering and visualization environment for gene expression profiles that preserves coherent local clusters and identifies global grouping trends. Conclusion We demonstrate, through four examples, that the proposed method not only possesses better numerical and statistical properties, it also provides more meaningful biomedical insights than other sorting algorithms. We suggest that sorted proximity matrices for genes and arrays, in addition to the gene-by-array expression matrix, can greatly aid in the search for comprehensive understanding of gene expression structures. Software for the proposed methods can be obtained at http://gap.stat.sinica.edu.tw/Software/GAP.

  2. Three-pattern decomposition of global atmospheric circulation: part I—decomposition model and theorems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Shujuan; Chou, Jifan; Cheng, Jianbo

    2018-04-01

    In order to study the interactions between the atmospheric circulations at the middle-high and low latitudes from the global perspective, the authors proposed the mathematical definition of three-pattern circulations, i.e., horizontal, meridional and zonal circulations with which the actual atmospheric circulation is expanded. This novel decomposition method is proved to accurately describe the actual atmospheric circulation dynamics. The authors used the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data to calculate the climate characteristics of those three-pattern circulations, and found that the decomposition model agreed with the observed results. Further dynamical analysis indicates that the decomposition model is more accurate to capture the major features of global three dimensional atmospheric motions, compared to the traditional definitions of Rossby wave, Hadley circulation and Walker circulation. The decomposition model for the first time realized the decomposition of global atmospheric circulation using three orthogonal circulations within the horizontal, meridional and zonal planes, offering new opportunities to study the large-scale interactions between the middle-high latitudes and low latitudes circulations.

  3. Regional mantle upwelling on Venus: The Beta-Atla-Themis anomaly and correlation with global tectonic patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crumpler, L. S.; Head, J. W.; Aubele, Jayne C.

    1993-01-01

    The morphology and global distribution of volcanic centers and their association with other geological characteristics offers significant insight into the global patterns of geology, tectonic style, thermal state, and interior dynamics of Venus. Magellan data permit the detailed geological interpretation necessary to address questions about interior dynamics of Venus particularly as they reflect relatively physical, chemical, and thermal conditions of the interior. This paper focuses on the distribution of anomalous concentrations of volcanic centers on Venus and regional patterns of tectonic deformation as it may relate to the identification of global internal anomalies, including mantle dynamic, petrological, or thermal patterns.

  4. Online respondent-driven sampling for studying contact patterns relevant for the spread of close-contact pathogens : A pilot study in Thailand

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stein, Mart L.; van Steenbergen, Jim E.; Chanyasanha, Charnchudhi; Tipayamongkholgul, Mathuros; Buskens, Vincent; van der Heijden, Peter G. M.; Sabaiwan, Wasamon; Bengtsson, Linus; Lu, Xin; Thorson, Anna E.; Kretzschmar, Mirjam E. E.

    2014-01-01

    Background: Information on social interactions is needed to understand the spread of airborne infections through a population. Previous studies mostly collected egocentric information of independent respondents with self-reported information about contacts. Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) is a

  5. Spatial and temporal patterns of stranded intertidal marine debris: is there a picture of global change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Browne, Mark Anthony; Chapman, M Gee; Thompson, Richard C; Amaral Zettler, Linda A; Jambeck, Jenna; Mallos, Nicholas J

    2015-06-16

    Floating and stranded marine debris is widespread. Increasing sea levels and altered rainfall, solar radiation, wind speed, waves, and oceanic currents associated with climatic change are likely to transfer more debris from coastal cities into marine and coastal habitats. Marine debris causes economic and ecological impacts, but understanding the scope of these requires quantitative information on spatial patterns and trends in the amounts and types of debris at a global scale. There are very few large-scale programs to measure debris, but many peer-reviewed and published scientific studies of marine debris describe local patterns. Unfortunately, methods of defining debris, sampling, and interpreting patterns in space or time vary considerably among studies, yet if data could be synthesized across studies, a global picture of the problem may be avaliable. We analyzed 104 published scientific papers on marine debris in order to determine how to evaluate this. Although many studies were well designed to answer specific questions, definitions of what constitutes marine debris, the methods used to measure, and the scale of the scope of the studies means that no general picture can emerge from this wealth of data. These problems are detailed to guide future studies and guidelines provided to enable the collection of more comparable data to better manage this growing problem.

  6. The Influence of Low-carbon Economy on Global Trade Pattern

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao-jing, Guo

    Since global warming has seriously endangered the living environment of human being and their health and safety, the development of low-carbon economy has become an irreversible global trend. Under the background of economic globalization, low-carbon economy will surely exert a significant impact on global trade pattern. Countries are paying more and more attention to the green trade. The emission permits trade of carbon between the developed countries and the developing countries has become more mature than ever. The carbon tariff caused by the distribution of the "big cake" will make the low-cost advantage in developing countries cease to exist, which will, in turn, affect the foreign trade, economic development, employment and people's living in developing countries. Therefore, under the background of this trend, we should perfect the relevant laws and regulations on trade and environment as soon as possible, optimize trade structure, promote greatly the development of service trade, transform thoroughly the mode of development in foreign trade, take advantage of the international carbon trading market by increasing the added value of export products resulted from technological innovation to achieve mutual benefit and win-win results and promote common development.

  7. Cancers of the Brain and CNS: Global Patterns and Trends in Incidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mortazavi, S M J; Mortazavi, S A R; Paknahad, M

    2018-03-01

    Miranda-Filho et al. in their recently published paper entitled "Cancers of the brain and CNS: global patterns and trends in incidence" provided a global status report of the geographic and temporal variations in the incidence of brain and CNS cancers in different countries across continents worldwide. While the authors confirm the role of genetic risk factors and ionizing radiation exposures, they claimed that no firm conclusion could be drawn about the role of exposure to non-ionizing radiation. The paper authored by Miranda-Filho et al. not only addresses a challenging issue, it can be considered as a good contribution in the field of brain and CNS cancers. However, our correspondence addresses a basic shortcoming of this paper about the role of electromagnetic fields and cancers and provides evidence showing that exposure to radiofrequency electromagnetic fields (RF-EMFs), at least at high levels and long durations, can increases the risk of cancer.

  8. Cooperative spreading processes in multiplex networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Xiang; Chen, Shihua; Wu, Xiaoqun; Ning, Di; Lu, Jun-An

    2016-06-01

    This study is concerned with the dynamic behaviors of epidemic spreading in multiplex networks. A model composed of two interacting complex networks is proposed to describe cooperative spreading processes, wherein the virus spreading in one layer can penetrate into the other to promote the spreading process. The global epidemic threshold of the model is smaller than the epidemic thresholds of the corresponding isolated networks. Thus, global epidemic onset arises in the interacting networks even though an epidemic onset does not arise in each isolated network. Simulations verify the analysis results and indicate that cooperative spreading processes in multiplex networks enhance the final infection fraction.

  9. Global Drainage Patterns to Modern Terrestrial Sedimentary Basins and its Influence on Large River Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyberg, B.; Helland-Hansen, W.

    2017-12-01

    Long-term preservation of alluvial sediments is dependent on the hydrological processes that deposit sediments solely within an area that has available accomodation space and net subsidence know as a sedimentary basin. An understanding of the river processes contributing to terrestrial sedimentary basins is essential to fundamentally constrain and quantify controls on the modern terrestrial sink. Furthermore, the terrestrial source to sink controls place constraints on the entire coastal, shelf and deep marine sediment routing systems. In addition, the geographical importance of modern terrestrial sedimentary basins for agriculture and human settlements has resulted in significant upstream anthropogenic catchment modification for irrigation and energy needs. Yet to our knowledge, a global catchment model depicting the drainage patterns to modern terrestrial sedimentary basins has previously not been established that may be used to address these challenging issues. Here we present a new database of 180,737 global catchments that show the surface drainage patterns to modern terrestrial sedimentary basins. This is achieved by using high resolution river networks derived from digital elevation models in relation to newly acquired maps on global modern sedimentary basins to identify terrestrial sinks. The results show that active tectonic regimes are typically characterized by larger terrestrial sedimentary basins, numerous smaller source catchments and a high source to sink relief ratio. To the contrary passive margins drain catchments to smaller terrestrial sedimentary basins, are composed of fewer source catchments that are relatively larger and a lower source to sink relief ratio. The different geomorphological characteristics of source catchments by tectonic setting influence the spatial and temporal patterns of fluvial architecture within sedimentary basins and the anthropogenic methods of exploiting those rivers. The new digital database resource is aimed to help

  10. Relation of major volcanic center concentration on Venus to global tectonic patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crumpler, L. S.; Head, James W.; Aubele, Jayne C.

    1993-01-01

    Global analysis of Magellan image data indicates that a major concentration of volcanic centers covering about 40 percent of the surface of Venus occurs between the Beta, Atla, and Themis regions. Associated with this enhanced concentration are geological characteristics commonly interpreted as rifting and mantle upwelling. Interconnected low plains in an annulus around this concentration are characterized by crustal shortening and infrequent volcanic centers that may represent sites of mantle return flow and net downwelling. Together, these observations suggest the existence of relatively simple, large-scale patterns of mantle circulation similar to those associated with concentrations of intraplate volcanism on earth.

  11. Experience drives innovation of new migration patterns of whooping cranes in response to global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teitelbaum, Claire S; Converse, Sarah J; Fagan, William F; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin; O'Hara, Robert B; Lacy, Anne E; Mueller, Thomas

    2016-09-06

    Anthropogenic changes in climate and land use are driving changes in migration patterns of birds worldwide. Spatial changes in migration have been related to long-term temperature trends, but the intrinsic mechanisms by which migratory species adapt to environmental change remain largely unexplored. We show that, for a long-lived social species, older birds with more experience are critical for innovating new migration behaviours. Groups containing older, more experienced individuals establish new overwintering sites closer to the breeding grounds, leading to a rapid population-level shift in migration patterns. Furthermore, these new overwintering sites are in areas where changes in climate have increased temperatures and where food availability from agriculture is high, creating favourable conditions for overwintering. Our results reveal that the age structure of populations is critical for the behavioural mechanisms that allow species to adapt to global change, particularly for long-lived animals, where changes in behaviour can occur faster than evolution.

  12. Montane ecosystem productivity responds more to global circulation patterns than climatic trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desai, A. R.; Wohlfahrt, G.; Zeeman, M. J.; Katata, G.; Eugster, W.; Montagnani, L.; Gianelle, D.; Mauder, M.; Schmid, H.-P.

    2016-02-01

    Regional ecosystem productivity is highly sensitive to inter-annual climate variability, both within and outside the primary carbon uptake period. However, Earth system models lack sufficient spatial scales and ecosystem processes to resolve how these processes may change in a warming climate. Here, we show, how for the European Alps, mid-latitude Atlantic ocean winter circulation anomalies drive high-altitude summer forest and grassland productivity, through feedbacks among orographic wind circulation patterns, snowfall, winter and spring temperatures, and vegetation activity. Therefore, to understand future global climate change influence to regional ecosystem productivity, Earth systems models need to focus on improvements towards topographic downscaling of changes in regional atmospheric circulation patterns and to lagged responses in vegetation dynamics to non-growing season climate anomalies.

  13. Montane ecosystem productivity responds more to global circulation patterns than climatic trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Desai, A R; Wohlfahrt, G; Zeeman, M J; Katata, G; Mauder, M; Schmid, H-P; Eugster, W; Montagnani, L; Gianelle, D

    2016-01-01

    Regional ecosystem productivity is highly sensitive to inter-annual climate variability, both within and outside the primary carbon uptake period. However, Earth system models lack sufficient spatial scales and ecosystem processes to resolve how these processes may change in a warming climate. Here, we show, how for the European Alps, mid-latitude Atlantic ocean winter circulation anomalies drive high-altitude summer forest and grassland productivity, through feedbacks among orographic wind circulation patterns, snowfall, winter and spring temperatures, and vegetation activity. Therefore, to understand future global climate change influence to regional ecosystem productivity, Earth systems models need to focus on improvements towards topographic downscaling of changes in regional atmospheric circulation patterns and to lagged responses in vegetation dynamics to non-growing season climate anomalies. (letter)

  14. Emerging pattern of global change in the upper atmosphere and ionosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Laštovička

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available In the upper atmosphere, greenhouse gases produce a cooling effect, instead of a warming effect. Increases in greenhouse gas concentrations are expected to induce substantial changes in the mesosphere, thermosphere, and ionosphere, including a thermal contraction of these layers. In this article we construct for the first time a pattern of the observed long-term global change in the upper atmosphere, based on trend studies of various parameters. The picture we obtain is qualitative, and contains several gaps and a few discrepancies, but the overall pattern of observed long-term changes throughout the upper atmosphere is consistent with model predictions of the effect of greenhouse gas increases. Together with the large body of lower atmospheric trend research, our synthesis indicates that anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are affecting the atmosphere at nearly all altitudes between ground and space.

  15. Experience drives innovation of new migration patterns of whooping cranes in response to global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teitelbaum, Claire S.; Converse, Sarah J.; Fagan, William F.; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin; O'Hara, Robert B.; Lacy, Anne E; Mueller, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    Anthropogenic changes in climate and land use are driving changes in migration patterns of birds worldwide. Spatial changes in migration have been related to long-term temperature trends, but the intrinsic mechanisms by which migratory species adapt to environmental change remain largely unexplored. We show that, for a long-lived social species, older birds with more experience are critical for innovating new migration behaviours. Groups containing older, more experienced individuals establish new overwintering sites closer to the breeding grounds, leading to a rapid population-level shift in migration patterns. Furthermore, these new overwintering sites are in areas where changes in climate have increased temperatures and where food availability from agriculture is high, creating favourable conditions for overwintering. Our results reveal that the age structure of populations is critical for the behavioural mechanisms that allow species to adapt to global change, particularly for long-lived animals, where changes in behaviour can occur faster than evolution.

  16. Patterns of Primary Tumor Invasion and Regional Lymph Node Spread Based on Magnetic Resonance Imaging in Early-Stage Nasal NK/T-cell Lymphoma: Implications for Clinical Target Volume Definition and Prognostic Significance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, Run-Ye [Department of Radiation Oncology, National Cancer Center/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing (China); Liu, Kang [Department of Imaging Diagnosis, National Cancer Center/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing (China); Wang, Wei-Hu; Jin, Jing; Song, Yong-Wen; Wang, Shu-Lian; Liu, Yue-Ping; Ren, Hua; Fang, Hui; Liu, Qing-Feng; Yang, Yong; Chen, Bo; Qi, Shu-Nan; Lu, Ning-Ning; Tang, Yu; Tang, Yuan; Li, Ning [Department of Radiation Oncology, National Cancer Center/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing (China); Ouyang, Han [Department of Imaging Diagnosis, National Cancer Center/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing (China); Li, Ye-Xiong, E-mail: yexiong12@163.com [Department of Radiation Oncology, National Cancer Center/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing (China)

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: This study aimed to determine the pathways of primary tumor invasion (PTI) and regional lymph node (LN) spread based on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in early-stage nasal NK/T-cell lymphoma (NKTCL), to improve clinical target volume (CTV) delineation and evaluate the prognostic value of locoregional extension patterns. Methods and Materials: A total of 105 patients with newly diagnosed early-stage nasal NKTCL who underwent pretreatment MRI were retrospectively reviewed. All patients received radiation therapy with or without chemotherapy. Results: The incidences of PTI and regional LN involvement were 64.7% and 25.7%, respectively. Based on the incidence of PTI, involved sites surrounding the nasal cavity were classified into 3 risk subgroups: high-risk (>20%), intermediate-risk (5%-20%), and low-risk (<5%). The most frequently involved site was the nasopharynx (35.2%), followed by the maxillary (21.9%) and ethmoid (21.9%) sinuses. Local disease and regional LN spread followed an orderly pattern without LN skipping. The retropharyngeal nodes (RPNs) were most frequently involved (19.0%), followed by level II (11.4%). The 5-year overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and locoregional control (LRC) rates for all patients were 72.8%, 65.2%, and 90.0%, respectively. The presence of PTI and regional LN involvement based on MRI significantly and negatively affected PFS and OS. Conclusions: Early-stage nasal NKTCL presents with a high incidence of PTI but a relatively low incidence of regional LN spread. Locoregional spread followed an orderly pattern, and PTI and regional LN spread are powerful prognostic factors for poorer survival outcomes. CTV reduction may be feasible for selected patients.

  17. Defining global neuroendocrine gene expression patterns associated with reproductive seasonality in fish.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dapeng Zhang

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Many vertebrates, including the goldfish, exhibit seasonal reproductive rhythms, which are a result of interactions between external environmental stimuli and internal endocrine systems in the hypothalamo-pituitary-gonadal axis. While it is long believed that differential expression of neuroendocrine genes contributes to establishing seasonal reproductive rhythms, no systems-level investigation has yet been conducted. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In the present study, by analyzing multiple female goldfish brain microarray datasets, we have characterized global gene expression patterns for a seasonal cycle. A core set of genes (873 genes in the hypothalamus were identified to be differentially expressed between May, August and December, which correspond to physiologically distinct stages that are sexually mature (prespawning, sexual regression, and early gonadal redevelopment, respectively. Expression changes of these genes are also shared by another brain region, the telencephalon, as revealed by multivariate analysis. More importantly, by examining one dataset obtained from fish in October who were kept under long-daylength photoperiod (16 h typical of the springtime breeding season (May, we observed that the expression of identified genes appears regulated by photoperiod, a major factor controlling vertebrate reproductive cyclicity. Gene ontology analysis revealed that hormone genes and genes functionally involved in G-protein coupled receptor signaling pathway and transmission of nerve impulses are significantly enriched in an expression pattern, whose transition is located between prespawning and sexually regressed stages. The existence of seasonal expression patterns was verified for several genes including isotocin, ependymin II, GABA(A gamma2 receptor, calmodulin, and aromatase b by independent samplings of goldfish brains from six seasonal time points and real-time PCR assays. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Using both

  18. Global patterns in post-dispersal seed removal by invertebrates and vertebrates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peco, Begoña; Laffan, Shawn W; Moles, Angela T

    2014-01-01

    It is commonly accepted that species interactions such as granivory are more intense in the tropics. However, this has rarely been tested. A global dataset of post-dispersal seed removal by invertebrates and vertebrates for 79 native plant species from semi-natural and natural terrestrial habitats ranging from 55° N to 45° S, was compiled from the global literature to test the hypothesis that post-dispersal seed removal by invertebrates and vertebrates is more intense at lower latitudes. We also quantified the relationship between post-dispersal seed removal by vertebrates and by invertebrates to global climatic features including temperature, actual evapotranspiration (AET) and rainfall seasonality. Linear mixed effect models were applied to describe the relationships between seed removal and latitude, hemisphere and climatic variables controlling for the effect of seed mass. Post-dispersal seed removal by invertebrates was negatively related to latitude. In contrast, post-dispersal seed removal by vertebrates was positively but weakly related to latitude. Mean annual temperature and actual evapotranspiration were positively related to post-dispersal seed removal by invertebrates, but not to post-dispersal seed removal by vertebrates, which was only marginally negatively related to rainfall seasonality. The inclusion of seed mass improved the fit of all models, but the term for seed mass was not significant in any model. Although a good climatic model for predicting post-dispersal seed predation by vertebrates at the global level was not found, our results suggest different and opposite latitudinal patterns of post-dispersal seed removal by invertebrates vs vertebrates. This is the first time that a negative relationship between post-dispersal seed removal by invertebrates and latitude, and a positive relationship with temperature and AET have been documented at a global-scale. These results have important implications for understanding global patterns in plant

  19. Role of Atmospheric Cloud Radiative Effects in the Intermodal Spread in the Shift of Southern Hemispheric Eddy-driven Jet in Responses to Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Y.; Thompson, D. W. J.; Bony, S.

    2017-12-01

    Observations and most climate models suggest storm track and extratropical eddy driven jet shifts poleward in a warmer climate, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. However, the magnitude of such shifts remains uncertain. Even for a prescribed uniform SST changes, models produce large inter-model spread in the magnitude of jet shift, suggesting that a substantial part of these uncertainties are caused by the impact of cloud radiative effects on the atmospheric heating rate per se. In this study we will investigate 1) how much do clouds contribute to the spread of the circulation response in the absence of SST coupling? 2) how much do clouds contribute to the spread of the direct CO2 and SST-only response?

  20. Spatial patterns and temporal dynamics of global scale climate-groundwater interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuthbert, M. O.; Gleeson, T. P.; Moosdorf, N.; Schneider, A. C.; Hartmann, J.; Befus, K. M.; Lehner, B.

    2017-12-01

    The interactions between groundwater and climate are important to resolve in both space and time as they influence mass and energy transfers at Earth's land surface. Despite the significance of these processes, little is known about the spatio-temporal distribution of such interactions globally, and many large-scale climate, hydrological and land surface models oversimplify groundwater or exclude it completely. In this study we bring together diverse global geomatic data sets to map spatial patterns in the sensitivity and degree of connectedness between the water table and the land surface, and use the output from a global groundwater model to assess the locations where the lateral import or export of groundwater is significant. We also quantify the groundwater response time, the characteristic time for groundwater systems to respond to a change in boundary conditions, and map its distribution globally to assess the likely dynamics of groundwater's interaction with climate. We find that more than half of the global land surface significantly exports or imports groundwater laterally. Nearly 40% of Earth's landmass has water tables that are strongly coupled to topography with water tables shallow enough to enable a bi-directional exchange of moisture with the climate system. However, only a small proportion (around 12%) of such regions have groundwater response times of 100 years or less and have groundwater fluxes that would significantly respond to rapid environmental changes over this timescale. We last explore fundamental relationships between aridity, groundwater response times and groundwater turnover times. Our results have wide ranging implications for understanding and modelling changes in Earth's water and energy balance and for informing robust future water management and security decisions.

  1. Over the hills and further away from coast: global geospatial patterns of human and environment over the 20th-21st centuries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kummu, Matti; de Moel, Hans; Salvucci, Gianluigi; Viviroli, Daniel; Ward, Philip J.; Varis, Olli

    2016-03-01

    Proximity to the coast and elevation are important geographical considerations for human settlement. Little is known, however, about how spatial variation in these factors exactly relates to human settlements and activities, and how this has developed over time. Such knowledge is important for identifying vulnerable regions that are at risk from phenomena such as food shortages and water stress. Human activities are a key driving force in global change, and thus detailed information on population distribution is an important input to any research framework on global change. In this paper we assess the global geospatial patterns of the distribution of human population and related factors, with regard to the altitude above sea level and proximity to the coast. The investigated factors are physical conditions, urbanisation, agricultural practices, economy, and environmental stress. An important novel element in this study, is that we included the temporal evolution in various factors related to human settlements and agricultural practices over the 20th century, and used projections for some of these factors up to the year 2050. We found population pressure in the proximity of the coast to be somewhat greater than was found in other studies. Yet, the distribution of population, urbanisation and wealth are evolving to become more evenly spread across the globe than they were in the past. Therefore, the commonly believed tendency of accumulation of people and wealth along coasts is not supported by our results. At the same time, food production is becoming increasingly decoupled from the trends in population density. Croplands are spreading from highly populated coastal zones towards inland zones. Our results thus indicate that even though people and wealth continue to accumulate in proximity to the coast, population densities and economic productivity are becoming less diverse in relation to elevation and distance from the coast.

  2. The global pattern of urbanization and economic growth: evidence from the last three decades.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Mingxing; Zhang, Hua; Liu, Weidong; Zhang, Wenzhong

    2014-01-01

    The relationship between urbanization and economic growth has been perplexing. In this paper, we identify the pattern of global change and the correlation of urbanization and economic growth, using cross-sectional, panel estimation and geographic information systems (GIS) methods. The analysis has been carried out on a global geographical scale, while the timescale of the study spans the last 30 years. The data shows that urbanization levels have changed substantially during these three decades. Empirical findings from cross-sectional data and panel data support the general notion of close links between urbanization levels and GDP per capita. However, we also present significant evidence that there is no correlation between urbanization speed and economic growth rate at the global level. Hence, we conclude that a given country cannot obtain the expected economic benefits from accelerated urbanization, especially if it takes the form of government-led urbanization. In addition, only when all facets are taken into consideration can we fully assess the urbanization process.

  3. Global Neural Pattern Similarity as a Common Basis for Categorization and Recognition Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Gui; Love, Bradley C.; Preston, Alison R.; Poldrack, Russell A.

    2014-01-01

    Familiarity, or memory strength, is a central construct in models of cognition. In previous categorization and long-term memory research, correlations have been found between psychological measures of memory strength and activation in the medial temporal lobes (MTLs), which suggests a common neural locus for memory strength. However, activation alone is insufficient for determining whether the same mechanisms underlie neural function across domains. Guided by mathematical models of categorization and long-term memory, we develop a theory and a method to test whether memory strength arises from the global similarity among neural representations. In human subjects, we find significant correlations between global similarity among activation patterns in the MTLs and both subsequent memory confidence in a recognition memory task and model-based measures of memory strength in a category learning task. Our work bridges formal cognitive theories and neuroscientific models by illustrating that the same global similarity computations underlie processing in multiple cognitive domains. Moreover, by establishing a link between neural similarity and psychological memory strength, our findings suggest that there may be an isomorphism between psychological and neural representational spaces that can be exploited to test cognitive theories at both the neural and behavioral levels. PMID:24872552

  4. The global pattern of urbanization and economic growth: evidence from the last three decades.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mingxing Chen

    Full Text Available The relationship between urbanization and economic growth has been perplexing. In this paper, we identify the pattern of global change and the correlation of urbanization and economic growth, using cross-sectional, panel estimation and geographic information systems (GIS methods. The analysis has been carried out on a global geographical scale, while the timescale of the study spans the last 30 years. The data shows that urbanization levels have changed substantially during these three decades. Empirical findings from cross-sectional data and panel data support the general notion of close links between urbanization levels and GDP per capita. However, we also present significant evidence that there is no correlation between urbanization speed and economic growth rate at the global level. Hence, we conclude that a given country cannot obtain the expected economic benefits from accelerated urbanization, especially if it takes the form of government-led urbanization. In addition, only when all facets are taken into consideration can we fully assess the urbanization process.

  5. Global patterns of foliar nitrogen isotopes and their relationships with climate, mycorrhizal fungi, foliar nutrient concentrations, and nitrogen availability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Craine, J M; Elmore, A J; Aidar, M P M

    2009-01-01

    Ratios of nitrogen (N) isotopes in leaves could elucidate underlying patterns of N cycling across ecological gradients. To better understand global-scale patterns of N cycling, we compiled data on foliar N isotope ratios (d15N), foliar N concentrations, mycorrhizal type and climate for over 11 00...

  6. A General Model of Negative Frequency Dependent Selection Explains Global Patterns of Human ABO Polymorphism.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando A Villanea

    Full Text Available The ABO locus in humans is characterized by elevated heterozygosity and very similar allele frequencies among populations scattered across the globe. Using knowledge of ABO protein function, we generated a simple model of asymmetric negative frequency dependent selection and genetic drift to explain the maintenance of ABO polymorphism and its loss in human populations. In our models, regardless of the strength of selection, models with large effective population sizes result in ABO allele frequencies that closely match those observed in most continental populations. Populations must be moderately small to fall out of equilibrium and lose either the A or B allele (N(e ≤ 50 and much smaller (N(e ≤ 25 for the complete loss of diversity, which nearly always involved the fixation of the O allele. A pattern of low heterozygosity at the ABO locus where loss of polymorphism occurs in our model is consistent with small populations, such as Native American populations. This study provides a general evolutionary model to explain the observed global patterns of polymorphism at the ABO locus and the pattern of allele loss in small populations. Moreover, these results inform the range of population sizes associated with the recent human colonization of the Americas.

  7. Worldwide patterns of fish biodiversity in estuaries: Effect of global vs. local factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasquaud, Stéphanie; Vasconcelos, Rita P.; França, Susana; Henriques, Sofia; Costa, Maria José; Cabral, Henrique

    2015-03-01

    The main ecological patterns and the functioning of estuarine ecosystems are difficult to evaluate due to natural and human induced complexity and variability. Broad geographical approaches appear particularly useful. This study tested, at a worldwide scale, the influence of global and local variables in fish species richness in estuaries, aiming to determine the latitudinal pattern of species richness, and patterns which could be driven by local features such as estuary area, estuary mouth width, river flow and intertidal area. Seventy one estuarine systems were considered with data obtained from the literature and geographical information system. Correlation tests and generalized linear models (GLM) were used in data analyses. Species richness varied from 23 to 153 fish species. GLM results showed that estuary area was the most important factor explaining species richness, followed by latitude and mouth width. Species richness increased towards the equator, and higher values were found in larger estuaries and with a wide mouth. All these trends showed a high variability. A larger estuary area probably reflects a higher diversity of habitats and/or productivity, which are key features for estuarine ecosystem functioning and biota. The mouth width effect is particularly notorious for marine and diadromous fish species, enhancing connectivity between marine and freshwater realms. The effects of river flow and intertidal area on the fish species richness appear to be less evident. These two factors may have a marked influence in the trophic structure of fish assemblages.

  8. Globally Stable Microresonator Turing Pattern Formation for Coherent High-Power THz Radiation On-Chip

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Shu-Wei; Yang, Jinghui; Yang, Shang-Hua; Yu, Mingbin; Kwong, Dim-Lee; Zelevinsky, T.; Jarrahi, Mona; Wong, Chee Wei

    2017-10-01

    In nonlinear microresonators driven by continuous-wave (cw) lasers, Turing patterns have been studied in the formalism of the Lugiato-Lefever equation with emphasis on their high coherence and exceptional robustness against perturbations. Destabilization of Turing patterns and the transition to spatiotemporal chaos, however, limit the available energy carried in the Turing rolls and prevent further harvest of their high coherence and robustness to noise. Here, we report a novel scheme to circumvent such destabilization, by incorporating the effect of local mode hybridizations, and we attain globally stable Turing pattern formation in chip-scale nonlinear oscillators with significantly enlarged parameter space, achieving a record-high power-conversion efficiency of 45% and an elevated peak-to-valley contrast of 100. The stationary Turing pattern is discretely tunable across 430 GHz on a THz carrier, with a fractional frequency sideband nonuniformity measured at 7.3 ×10-14 . We demonstrate the simultaneous microwave and optical coherence of the Turing rolls at different evolution stages through ultrafast optical correlation techniques. The free-running Turing-roll coherence, 9 kHz in 200 ms and 160 kHz in 20 minutes, is transferred onto a plasmonic photomixer for one of the highest-power THz coherent generations at room temperature, with 1.1% optical-to-THz power conversion. Its long-term stability can be further improved by more than 2 orders of magnitude, reaching an Allan deviation of 6 ×10-10 at 100 s, with a simple computer-aided slow feedback control. The demonstrated on-chip coherent high-power Turing-THz system is promising to find applications in astrophysics, medical imaging, and wireless communications.

  9. Information spread of emergency events: path searching on social networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Weihui; Hu, Hongzhi; Wu, Tunan; Dai, Yonghui

    2014-01-01

    Emergency has attracted global attentions of government and the public, and it will easily trigger a series of serious social problems if it is not supervised effectively in the dissemination process. In the Internet world, people communicate with each other and form various virtual communities based on social networks, which lead to a complex and fast information spread pattern of emergency events. This paper collects Internet data based on data acquisition and topic detection technology, analyzes the process of information spread on social networks, describes the diffusions and impacts of that information from the perspective of random graph, and finally seeks the key paths through an improved IBF algorithm. Application cases have shown that this algorithm can search the shortest spread paths efficiently, which may help us to guide and control the information dissemination of emergency events on early warning.

  10. Information Spread of Emergency Events: Path Searching on Social Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weihui Dai

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Emergency has attracted global attentions of government and the public, and it will easily trigger a series of serious social problems if it is not supervised effectively in the dissemination process. In the Internet world, people communicate with each other and form various virtual communities based on social networks, which lead to a complex and fast information spread pattern of emergency events. This paper collects Internet data based on data acquisition and topic detection technology, analyzes the process of information spread on social networks, describes the diffusions and impacts of that information from the perspective of random graph, and finally seeks the key paths through an improved IBF algorithm. Application cases have shown that this algorithm can search the shortest spread paths efficiently, which may help us to guide and control the information dissemination of emergency events on early warning.

  11. Opportunities for Intervention Strategies for Weight Management: Global Actions on Fluid Intake Patterns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Max Lafontan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Summary: Water is an essential nutrient for all physiological functions and particularly important for thermoregulation. About 60% of our body weight is made of water. Under standard conditions (18-20 °C and moderate activity, water balance is regulated within 0.2 % of body weight over a 24-hour period. Water requirement varies between individuals and according to environmental conditions. Concerning considerations related to obesity, the health impact of fluid intake is commonly overlooked. Fluid intake advices are missing in most of food pyramids offered to the public, and water requirements and hydration challenges remain often neglected. The purpose of this paper is to emphasize and discuss the role of water consumption in the context of other important public health measures for weight management. Attention will be focused on fluid intake patterns and hydration-related questions in the context of global interventions and/or physical activity programs settled in weight management protocols.

  12. Opportunities for Intervention Strategies for Weight Management: Global Actions on Fluid Intake Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lafontan, Max; Visscher, Tommy L.S.; Farpour-Lambert, Nathalie; Yumuk, Volkan

    2015-01-01

    Water is an essential nutrient for all physiological functions and particularly important for thermoregulation. About 60% of our body weight is made of water. Under standard conditions (18-20 °C and moderate activity), water balance is regulated within 0.2 % of body weight over a 24-hour period. Water requirement varies between individuals and according to environmental conditions. Concerning considerations related to obesity, the health impact of fluid intake is commonly overlooked. Fluid intake advices are missing in most of food pyramids offered to the public, and water requirements and hydration challenges remain often neglected. The purpose of this paper is to emphasize and discuss the role of water consumption in the context of other important public health measures for weight management. Attention will be focused on fluid intake patterns and hydration-related questions in the context of global interventions and/or physical activity programs settled in weight management protocols. PMID:25765164

  13. Global fishery development patterns are driven by profit but not trophic level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sethi, Suresh A; Branch, Trevor A; Watson, Reg

    2010-07-06

    Successful ocean management needs to consider not only fishing impacts but drivers of harvest. Consolidating post-1950 global catch and economic data, we assess which attributes of fisheries are good indicators for fishery development. Surprisingly, year of development and economic value are not correlated with fishery trophic levels. Instead, patterns emerge of profit-driven fishing for attributes related to costs and revenues. Post-1950 fisheries initially developed on shallow ranging species with large catch, high price, and big body size, and then expanded to less desirable species. Revenues expected from developed fisheries declined 95% from 1951 to 1999, and few high catch or valuable fishing opportunities remain. These results highlight the importance of economic attributes of species as leading indicators for harvest-related impacts in ocean ecosystems.

  14. Global stability and pattern formation in a nonlocal diffusive Lotka-Volterra competition model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ni, Wenjie; Shi, Junping; Wang, Mingxin

    2018-06-01

    A diffusive Lotka-Volterra competition model with nonlocal intraspecific and interspecific competition between species is formulated and analyzed. The nonlocal competition strength is assumed to be determined by a diffusion kernel function to model the movement pattern of the biological species. It is shown that when there is no nonlocal intraspecific competition, the dynamics properties of nonlocal diffusive competition problem are similar to those of classical diffusive Lotka-Volterra competition model regardless of the strength of nonlocal interspecific competition. Global stability of nonnegative constant equilibria are proved using Lyapunov or upper-lower solution methods. On the other hand, strong nonlocal intraspecific competition increases the system spatiotemporal dynamic complexity. For the weak competition case, the nonlocal diffusive competition model may possess nonconstant positive equilibria for some suitably large nonlocal intraspecific competition coefficients.

  15. Linking Global Patterns of Nitrogen Resorption with Nitrogen Mineralization During Litter Decomposition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, M.; Liu, L.; Jiang, L.

    2017-12-01

    The nitrogen (N) cycle in terrestrial ecosystems is strongly influenced by resorption prior to litter fall and by mineralization after litter fall. Although both resorption and mineralization make N available to plants and are influenced by climate, their linkage in a changing environment remains largely unknown. Here, we show that, at the global scale, increasing N resorption efficiency has a negative effect on the N mineralization rate. With increasing temperature and precipitation, the increasing rate of the N cycle is closely related to the shift from the more conservative resorption pathway to an acquiring mineralization pathway. Furthermore, systems with faster N-cycle rates support plants with higher foliar N:P ratios and microbes with lower fungi:bacteria ratios. We highlight the importance of considering the geographic pattern and the dynamic interaction between N resorption and N mineralization, which should be incorporated into earth-system models to improve the simulation of nutrient constraints on ecosystem productivity.

  16. Global patterns in lake ecosystem responses to warming based on the temperature dependence of metabolism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kraemer, Benjamin M; Chandra, Sudeep; Dell, Anthony I; Dix, Margaret; Kuusisto, Esko; Livingstone, David M; Schladow, S Geoffrey; Silow, Eugene; Sitoki, Lewis M; Tamatamah, Rashid; McIntyre, Peter B

    2017-05-01

    Climate warming is expected to have large effects on ecosystems in part due to the temperature dependence of metabolism. The responses of metabolic rates to climate warming may be greatest in the tropics and at low elevations because mean temperatures are warmer there and metabolic rates respond exponentially to temperature (with exponents >1). However, if warming rates are sufficiently fast in higher latitude/elevation lakes, metabolic rate responses to warming may still be greater there even though metabolic rates respond exponentially to temperature. Thus, a wide range of global patterns in the magnitude of metabolic rate responses to warming could emerge depending on global patterns of temperature and warming rates. Here we use the Boltzmann-Arrhenius equation, published estimates of activation energy, and time series of temperature from 271 lakes to estimate long-term (1970-2010) changes in 64 metabolic processes in lakes. The estimated responses of metabolic processes to warming were usually greatest in tropical/low-elevation lakes even though surface temperatures in higher latitude/elevation lakes are warming faster. However, when the thermal sensitivity of a metabolic process is especially weak, higher latitude/elevation lakes had larger responses to warming in parallel with warming rates. Our results show that the sensitivity of a given response to temperature (as described by its activation energy) provides a simple heuristic for predicting whether tropical/low-elevation lakes will have larger or smaller metabolic responses to warming than higher latitude/elevation lakes. Overall, we conclude that the direct metabolic consequences of lake warming are likely to be felt most strongly at low latitudes and low elevations where metabolism-linked ecosystem services may be most affected. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Global Pattern of The Evolutions of the Sub-Auroral Polarization Streams

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, F.; Zhang, X.; Wang, W.; Wan, W.

    2017-12-01

    Due to the spatial and temporal limitations of the in-situ measurements from the low altitude polar orbiting satellites or the ionospheric scan by incoherent scatter radars, the global configuration and evolution of SAPS are still not very clear. Here, we present multi-satellite observations of the evolution of subauroral polarization streams (SAPS) during the main phase of a server geomagnetic storm occurred on 31 March 2001. DMSP F12 to F15 observations indicate that the SAPS were first generated in the dusk sector at the beginning of the main phase. Then the SAPS channel expanded towards the midnight and moved to lower latitudes as the main phase went on. The peak velocity, latitudinal width, latitudinal alignment, and longitudinal span of the SAPS channels were highly dynamic during the storm main phase. The global evolution of the SAPS corresponds well with that of the region-2 field-aligned currents, which are mainly determined by the azimuthal pressure gradient of the ring current. Further studies on 37 storms and 30 isolated substorms indicate that the lifetime of the SAPS channel was proportional to the period of time for southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). The SAPS channel disappeared after northward turning of the IMF. During the recovery phase, if the IMF kept northward, no SAPS channel was generated, if the IMF turned to southward again, however, SAPS channel will be generated again with lifetime proportional to the duration of the southward IMF. During isolated substorms, the SAPS channel was also controlled by IMF. The SAPS channel was generated after substorm onset and the peak drift velocity of the SAPS channel achieved its maximum during the recovery phase of the substorm. It is suggested that, SAPS channel were mainly controlled by IMF, more works should be done with observations or simulations of investigate the global patterns of the SAPS and the magnetosphere-ionosphere couplings.

  18. A second life for old data: Global patterns in pollution ecology revealed from published observational studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kozlov, Mikhail V., E-mail: mikoz@utu.fi [Section of Ecology, University of Turku, 20014 Turku (Finland); Zvereva, Elena L. [Section of Ecology, University of Turku, 20014 Turku (Finland)

    2011-05-15

    A synthesis of research on the responses of terrestrial biota (1095 effect sizes) to industrial pollution (206 point emission sources) was conducted to reveal regional and global patterns from small-scale observational studies. A meta-analysis, in combination with other statistical methods, showed that the effects of pollution depend on characteristics of the specific polluter (type, amount of emission, duration of impact on biota), the affected organism (trophic group, life history), the level at which the response was measured (organism, population, community), and the environment (biome, climate). In spite of high heterogeneity in responses, we have detected several general patterns. We suggest that the development of evolutionary adaptations to pollution is a common phenomenon and that the harmful effects of pollution on terrestrial ecosystems are likely to increase as the climate warms. We argue that community- and ecosystem-level responses to pollution should be explored directly, rather than deduced from organism-level studies. - Research synthesis demonstrated that the harmful effects of pollution on terrestrial ecosystems are likely to increase as the climate warms.

  19. A second life for old data: Global patterns in pollution ecology revealed from published observational studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kozlov, Mikhail V.; Zvereva, Elena L.

    2011-01-01

    A synthesis of research on the responses of terrestrial biota (1095 effect sizes) to industrial pollution (206 point emission sources) was conducted to reveal regional and global patterns from small-scale observational studies. A meta-analysis, in combination with other statistical methods, showed that the effects of pollution depend on characteristics of the specific polluter (type, amount of emission, duration of impact on biota), the affected organism (trophic group, life history), the level at which the response was measured (organism, population, community), and the environment (biome, climate). In spite of high heterogeneity in responses, we have detected several general patterns. We suggest that the development of evolutionary adaptations to pollution is a common phenomenon and that the harmful effects of pollution on terrestrial ecosystems are likely to increase as the climate warms. We argue that community- and ecosystem-level responses to pollution should be explored directly, rather than deduced from organism-level studies. - Research synthesis demonstrated that the harmful effects of pollution on terrestrial ecosystems are likely to increase as the climate warms.

  20. Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milly, P.C.D.; Dunne, K.A.; Vecchia, A.V.

    2005-01-01

    Water availability on the continents is important for human health, economic activity, ecosystem function and geophysical processes. Because the saturation vapour pressure of water in air is highly sensitive to temperature, perturbations in the global water cycle are expected to accompany climate warming. Regional patterns of warming-induced changes in surface hydroclimate are complex and less certain than those in temperature, however, with both regional increases and decreases expected in precipitation and runoff. Here we show that an ensemble of 12 climate models exhibits qualitative and statistically significant skill in simulating observed regional patterns of twentieth-century multidecadal changes in streamflow. These models project 10–40% increases in runoff in eastern equatorial Africa, the La Plata basin and high-latitude North America and Eurasia, and 10–30% decreases in runoff in southern Africa, southern Europe, the Middle East and mid-latitude western North America by the year 2050. Such changes in sustainable water availability would have considerable regional-scale consequences for economies as well as ecosystems.

  1. Simple vs. Complex Carbohydrate Dietary Patterns and the Global Overweight and Obesity Pandemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferretti, Fabrizio; Mariani, Michele

    2017-10-04

    Nowadays, obesity and being overweight are among the major global health concerns. Many, diet-related diseases impose high tangible and intangible costs, and threaten the sustainability of health-care systems worldwide. In this study, we model, at the macroeconomic level, the impact of energy intake from different types of carbohydrates on the population's BMI (body mass index). We proceed in three steps. First, we develop a framework to analyse both the consumption choices between simple and complex carbohydrates and the effects of these choices on people health conditions. Second, we collect figures for 185 countries (over the period 2012-2014) regarding the shares of simple (sugar and sweetener) and complex (cereal) carbohydrates in each country's total dietary energy supply. Third, we use regression techniques to: (1) estimate the impact of these shares on the country's prevalence of obesity and being overweight; (2) compute for each country an indicator of dietary pattern based on the ratio between simple and complex carbohydrates, weighted by their estimated effects on the prevalence of obesity and being overweight; and (3) measure the elasticity of the prevalence of obesity and being overweight with respect to changes in both carbohydrate dietary pattern and income per capita. We find that unhealthy eating habits and the associated prevalence of excessive body fat accumulation tend to behave as a 'normal good' in low, medium- and high-HDI (Human Development Index) countries, but as an 'inferior good' in very high-HDI countries.

  2. Human Development Inequality Index and Cancer Pattern: a Global Distributive Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rezaeian, Shahab; Khazaei, Salman; Khazaei, Somayeh; Mansori, Kamyar; Sanjari Moghaddam, Ali; Ayubi, Erfan

    2016-01-01

    This study aimed to quantify associations of the human development inequality (HDI) index with incidence, mortality, and mortality to incidence ratios for eight common cancers among different countries. In this ecological study, data about incidence and mortality rates of cancers was obtained from the Global Cancer Project for 169 countries. HDI indices for the same countries was obtained from the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) database. The concentration index was defined as the covariance between cumulative percentage of cancer indicators (incidence, mortality and mortality to incidence ratio) and the cumulative percentage of economic indicators (country economic rank). Results indicated that incidences of cancers of liver, cervix and esophagus were mainly concentrated in countries with a low HDI index while cancers of lung, breast, colorectum, prostate and stomach were concentrated mainly in countries with a high HDI index. The same pattern was observed for mortality from cancer except for prostate cancer that was more concentrated in countries with a low HDI index. Higher MIRs for all cancers were more concentrated in countries with a low HDI index. It was concluded that patterns of cancer occurrence correlate with care disparities at the country level.

  3. Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milly, P C D; Dunne, K A; Vecchia, A V

    2005-11-17

    Water availability on the continents is important for human health, economic activity, ecosystem function and geophysical processes. Because the saturation vapour pressure of water in air is highly sensitive to temperature, perturbations in the global water cycle are expected to accompany climate warming. Regional patterns of warming-induced changes in surface hydroclimate are complex and less certain than those in temperature, however, with both regional increases and decreases expected in precipitation and runoff. Here we show that an ensemble of 12 climate models exhibits qualitative and statistically significant skill in simulating observed regional patterns of twentieth-century multidecadal changes in streamflow. These models project 10-40% increases in runoff in eastern equatorial Africa, the La Plata basin and high-latitude North America and Eurasia, and 10-30% decreases in runoff in southern Africa, southern Europe, the Middle East and mid-latitude western North America by the year 2050. Such changes in sustainable water availability would have considerable regional-scale consequences for economies as well as ecosystems.

  4. The Global Precipitation Patterns Associated with Short-Term Extratropical Climate Fluctuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.; Bolvin, David T.

    1999-01-01

    Two globally-complete, observation-only precipitation datasets have recently been developed for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Both depend heavily on a variety of satellite input, as well as gauge data over land. The first, Version 2x79, provides monthly estimates on a 2.5 deg. x 2.5 deg. lat/long grid for the period 1979 through late 1999 (by the time of the conference). The second, the One-Degree Daily (1DD), provides daily estimates on a 1 deg. x l deg. grid for the period 1997 through late 1999 (by the time of the conference). Both are in beta test preparatory to release as official GPCP products. These datasets provide a unique perspective on the hydrological effects of the various atmospheric flow anomalies that have been identified by meteorologists. In this paper we discuss the regional precipitation effects that result from persistent extratropical flow anomalies. We will focus on the Pacific-North America (PNA) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) patterns. Each characteristically becomes established on synoptic time scales, but then persists for periods that can exceed a month. The onset phase of each appears to have systematic mobile features, while the mature phase tend to be more stationary. Accordingly, composites of monthly data for outstanding positive and negative events (separately) contained in the 20-year record reveal the climatological structure of the precipitation during the mature phase. The climatological anomalies of the positive, negative, and (positive-negative) composites show the expected storm-track-related shifts in precipitation, and provide the advantage of putting the known precipitation effects over land in the context of the total pattern over land and ocean. As well, this global perspective points out some unexpected areas of correlation. Day-by-day composites of daily data anchored to the onset date demonstrate the systematic features during the onset. Although the 1DD has a fairly short record, some

  5. Modeling urbanization patterns at a global scale with generative adversarial networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albert, A. T.; Strano, E.; Gonzalez, M.

    2017-12-01

    Current demographic projections show that, in the next 30 years, global population growth will mostly take place in developing countries. Coupled with a decrease in density, such population growth could potentially double the land occupied by settlements by 2050. The lack of reliable and globally consistent socio-demographic data, coupled with the limited predictive performance underlying traditional urban spatial explicit models, call for developing better predictive methods, calibrated using a globally-consistent dataset. Thus, richer models of the spatial interplay between the urban built-up land, population distribution and energy use are central to the discussion around the expansion and development of cities, and their impact on the environment in the context of a changing climate. In this talk we discuss methods for, and present an analysis of, urban form, defined as the spatial distribution of macroeconomic quantities that characterize a city, using modern machine learning methods and best-available remote-sensing data for the world's largest 25,000 cities. We first show that these cities may be described by a small set of patterns in radial building density, nighttime luminosity, and population density, which highlight, to first order, differences in development and land use across the world. We observe significant, spatially-dependent variance around these typical patterns, which would be difficult to model using traditional statistical methods. We take a first step in addressing this challenge by developing CityGAN, a conditional generative adversarial network model for simulating realistic urban forms. To guide learning and measure the quality of the simulated synthetic cities, we develop a specialized loss function for GAN optimization that incorporates standard spatial statistics used by urban analysis experts. Our framework is a stark departure from both the standard physics-based approaches in the literature (that view urban forms as fractals with a

  6. Limiting global-mean temperature increase to 1.5–2 °C could reduce the incidence and spatial spread of dengue fever in Latin America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Ian; Osborn, Timothy J.; Steiner São Bernardo, Christine; Peres, Carlos A.; Lake, Iain R.

    2018-01-01

    The Paris Climate Agreement aims to hold global-mean temperature well below 2 °C and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels. While it is recognized that there are benefits for human health in limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, the magnitude with which those societal benefits will be accrued remains unquantified. Crucial to public health preparedness and response is the understanding and quantification of such impacts at different levels of warming. Using dengue in Latin America as a study case, a climate-driven dengue generalized additive mixed model was developed to predict global warming impacts using five different global circulation models, all scaled to represent multiple global-mean temperature assumptions. We show that policies to limit global warming to 2 °C could reduce dengue cases by about 2.8 (0.8–7.4) million cases per year by the end of the century compared with a no-policy scenario that warms by 3.7 °C. Limiting warming further to 1.5 °C produces an additional drop in cases of about 0.5 (0.2–1.1) million per year. Furthermore, we found that by limiting global warming we can limit the expansion of the disease toward areas where incidence is currently low. We anticipate our study to be a starting point for more comprehensive studies incorporating socioeconomic scenarios and how they may further impact dengue incidence. Our results demonstrate that although future climate change may amplify dengue transmission in the region, impacts may be avoided by constraining the level of warming. PMID:29844166

  7. Wet climate and transportation routes accelerate spread of human plague

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Lei; Stige, Leif Chr.; Kausrud, Kyrre Linné; Ben Ari, Tamara; Wang, Shuchun; Fang, Xiye; Schmid, Boris V.; Liu, Qiyong; Stenseth, Nils Chr.; Zhang, Zhibin

    2014-01-01

    Currently, large-scale transmissions of infectious diseases are becoming more closely associated with accelerated globalization and climate change, but quantitative analyses are still rare. By using an extensive dataset consisting of date and location of cases for the third plague pandemic from 1772 to 1964 in China and a novel method (nearest neighbour approach) which deals with both short- and long-distance transmissions, we found the presence of major roads, rivers and coastline accelerated the spread of plague and shaped the transmission patterns. We found that plague spread velocity was positively associated with wet conditions (measured by an index of drought and flood events) in China, probably due to flood-driven transmission by people or rodents. Our study provides new insights on transmission patterns and possible mechanisms behind variability in transmission speed, with implications for prevention and control measures. The methodology may also be applicable to studies of disease dynamics or species movement in other systems. PMID:24523275

  8. Collective behavior in the spatial spreading of obesity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallos, Lazaros K.; Barttfeld, Pablo; Havlin, Shlomo; Sigman, Mariano; Makse, Hernán A.

    2012-06-01

    Obesity prevalence is increasing in many countries at alarming levels. A difficulty in the conception of policies to reverse these trends is the identification of the drivers behind the obesity epidemics. Here, we implement a spatial spreading analysis to investigate whether obesity shows spatial correlations, revealing the effect of collective and global factors acting above individual choices. We find a regularity in the spatial fluctuations of their prevalence revealed by a pattern of scale-free long-range correlations. The fluctuations are anomalous, deviating in a fundamental way from the weaker correlations found in the underlying population distribution indicating the presence of collective behavior, i.e., individual habits may have negligible influence in shaping the patterns of spreading. Interestingly, we find the same scale-free correlations in economic activities associated with food production. These results motivate future interventions to investigate the causality of this relation providing guidance for the implementation of preventive health policies.

  9. Global temporal patterns of pancreatic cancer and association with socioeconomic development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Martin C S; Jiang, Johnny Y; Liang, Miaoyin; Fang, Yuan; Yeung, Ming Sze; Sung, Joseph J Y

    2017-06-09

    Pancreatic cancer induces a substantial global burden. We examined its global incidence/mortality rates and their correlation with socioeconomic development (Human Development Index [HDI] and Gross Domestic Product [GDP] in 2000 as proxy measures). Data on age-standardized incidence/mortality rates in 2012 were retrieved from the GLOBOCAN database. Temporal patterns in 1998-2007 were assessed for 39 countries according to gender. The Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) of the incidence/mortality trends was evaluated using joinpoint regression analysis. The age-standardized incidence ranged between 0.8-8.9/100,000. When compared among countries, Brazil (AAPC = 10.4, 95%C.I. = 0.8,21) and France (AAPC = 4.7, 95%C.I. = 3.6,5.9) reported the highest incidence rise in men. The greatest increase in women was reported in Thailand (AAPC = 7, 95%C.I. = 2.1,12.1) and Ecuador (AAPC = 4.3, 95%C.I. = 1.3,7.3). For mortality, the Philippines (APCC = 4.3, 95%C.I. = 2,6.6) and Croatia (AAPC = 2, 95% C.I. = 0,3.9) reported the biggest increase among men. The Philippines (AAPC = 5.8, 95% C.I. 4.5,7.2) and Slovakia (AAPC = 3.1, 95% C.I. 0.9,5.3) showed the most prominent rise among women. Its incidence was positively correlated with HDI (men: r = 0.66; women: r = 0.70) and GDP (men: r = 0.29; women: r = 0.28, all p GDP]). In summary, the incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer were rising in many countries, requiring regular surveillance.

  10. Global patterns in Earth's dynamic topography since the Jurassic: the role of subducted slabs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Rubey

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available We evaluate the spatial and temporal evolution of Earth's long-wavelength surface dynamic topography since the Jurassic using a series of high-resolution global mantle convection models. These models are Earth-like in terms of convective vigour, thermal structure, surface heat-flux and the geographic distribution of heterogeneity. The models generate a degree-2-dominated spectrum of dynamic topography with negative amplitudes above subducted slabs (i.e. circum-Pacific regions and southern Eurasia and positive amplitudes elsewhere (i.e. Africa, north-western Eurasia and the central Pacific. Model predictions are compared with published observations and subsidence patterns from well data, both globally and for the Australian and southern African regions. We find that our models reproduce the long-wavelength component of these observations, although observed smaller-scale variations are not reproduced. We subsequently define geodynamic rules for how different surface tectonic settings are affected by mantle processes: (i locations in the vicinity of a subduction zone show large negative dynamic topography amplitudes; (ii regions far away from convergent margins feature long-term positive dynamic topography; and (iii rapid variations in dynamic support occur along the margins of overriding plates (e.g. the western US and at points located on a plate that rapidly approaches a subduction zone (e.g. India and the Arabia Peninsula. Our models provide a predictive quantitative framework linking mantle convection with plate tectonics and sedimentary basin evolution, thus improving our understanding of how subduction and mantle convection affect the spatio-temporal evolution of basin architecture.

  11. Global patterns and clines in the growth of common carp Cyprinus carpio.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilizzi, L; Copp, G H

    2017-07-01

    This review provides a meta-analytical assessment of the global patterns and clines in the growth of Cyprinus carpio as measured by length-at-age (L t ) or von Bertalanffy growth function (VBGF) parameters, mass-length relationship (W-L t ) and condition factor, based on literature data. In total, 284 studies were retrieved spanning 91 years of research and carried out on 381 waterbodies-locations in 50 countries in all five continents. Although native C. carpio achieved larger (asymptotic) size relative to its non-native counterpart, the latter grew faster during the first 7 years of life. Lentic populations (especially in natural lakes) also achieved larger sizes relative to lotic ones and the same was true for populations in cold and temperate v. arid climates. Unlike previous studies (on much more restricted datasets), only weak latitudinal clines in instantaneous growth rate, L t at age 3 and mortality were observed globally and this was probably due to the presence of counter-gradient growth variation at all representative age classes (i.e. 1-10 years). Slightly negative allometry was revealed by the W-L t and the related form factor tended to distinguish the more elongated and torpedo-shaped body typical of the wild form from the deeper body of feral-domesticated C. carpio. Existing population dynamics models for C. carpio will benefit from the comprehensive range of waterbody type × climate class-specific VBGF parameters provided in the present study; whereas, more studies are needed on the species' growth in tropical regions and to unravel the possibility of confounding effects on age estimation due to both historical and methodological reasons. © 2017 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

  12. Simple vs. Complex Carbohydrate Dietary Patterns and the Global Overweight and Obesity Pandemic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabrizio Ferretti

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, obesity and being overweight are among the major global health concerns. Many, diet-related diseases impose high tangible and intangible costs, and threaten the sustainability of health-care systems worldwide. In this study, we model, at the macroeconomic level, the impact of energy intake from different types of carbohydrates on the population’s BMI (body mass index. We proceed in three steps. First, we develop a framework to analyse both the consumption choices between simple and complex carbohydrates and the effects of these choices on people health conditions. Second, we collect figures for 185 countries (over the period 2012–2014 regarding the shares of simple (sugar and sweetener and complex (cereal carbohydrates in each country’s total dietary energy supply. Third, we use regression techniques to: (1 estimate the impact of these shares on the country’s prevalence of obesity and being overweight; (2 compute for each country an indicator of dietary pattern based on the ratio between simple and complex carbohydrates, weighted by their estimated effects on the prevalence of obesity and being overweight; and (3 measure the elasticity of the prevalence of obesity and being overweight with respect to changes in both carbohydrate dietary pattern and income per capita. We find that unhealthy eating habits and the associated prevalence of excessive body fat accumulation tend to behave as a ‘normal good’ in low, medium- and high-HDI (Human Development Index countries, but as an ‘inferior good’ in very high-HDI countries.

  13. Global Incidence and Mortality for Prostate Cancer: Analysis of Temporal Patterns and Trends in 36 Countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Martin C S; Goggins, William B; Wang, Harry H X; Fung, Franklin D H; Leung, Colette; Wong, Samuel Y S; Ng, Chi Fai; Sung, Joseph J Y

    2016-11-01

    Prostate cancer (PCa) is a leading cause of mortality and morbidity globally, but its specific geographic patterns and temporal trends are under-researched. To test the hypotheses that PCa incidence is higher and PCa mortality is lower in countries with higher socioeconomic development, and that temporal trends for PCa incidence have increased while mortality has decreased over time. Data on age-standardized incidence and mortality rates in 2012 were retrieved from the GLOBOCAN database. Temporal patterns were assessed for 36 countries using data obtained from Cancer incidence in five continents volumes I-X and the World Health Organization mortality database. Correlations between incidence or mortality rates and socioeconomic indicators (human development index [HDI] and gross domestic product [GDP]) were evaluated. The average annual percent change in PCa incidence and mortality in the most recent 10 yr according to join-point regression. Reported PCa incidence rates varied more than 25-fold worldwide in 2012, with the highest incidence rates observed in Micronesia/Polynesia, the USA, and European countries. Mortality rates paralleled the incidence rates except for Africa, where PCa mortality rates were the highest. Countries with higher HDI (r=0.58) and per capita GDP (r=0.62) reported greater incidence rates. According to the most recent 10-yr temporal data available, most countries experienced increases in incidence, with sharp rises in incidence rates in Asia and Northern and Western Europe. A substantial reduction in mortality rates was reported in most countries, except in some Asian countries and Eastern Europe, where mortality increased. Data in regional registries could be underestimated. PCa incidence has increased while PCa mortality has decreased in most countries. The reported incidence was higher in countries with higher socioeconomic development. The incidence of prostate cancer has shown high variations geographically and over time, with smaller

  14. Infectious diseases epidemic threats and mass gatherings: Refocusing global attention on the continuing spread of the Middle East Respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zumla, A. (Alimuddin); Alagaili, A.N. (Abdulaziz N.); Cotten, M. (Matthew); Azhar, E.I. (Esam I.)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractMedia and World Health Organization (WHO) attention on Zika virus transmission at the 2016 Rio Olympic Games and the 2015 Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa diverted the attention of global public health authorities from other lethal infectious diseases with epidemic potential. Mass

  15. The wide-spread presence of rib-like patterns in basal shear of ice streams detected by surface data inversion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sergienko, O. V.

    2013-12-01

    The direct observations of the basal conditions under continental-scale ice sheets are logistically impossible. A possible approach to estimate conditions at the ice - bed interface is from surface observations by means of inverse methods. The recent advances in remote and ground-based observations have allowed to acquire a wealth observations from Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Using high-resolution data sets of ice surface and bed elevations and surface velocities, inversions for basal conditions have been performed for several ice streams in Greenland and Antarctica. The inversion results reveal the wide-spread presence of rib-like spatial structures in basal shear. The analysis of the hydraulic potential distribution shows that these rib-like structures co-locate with highs of the gradient of hydraulic potential. This suggests that subglacial water plays a role in the development and evolution of the basal shear ribs.

  16. Frost and leaf-size gradients in forests: global patterns and experimental evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lusk, Christopher H; Clearwater, Michael J; Laughlin, Daniel C; Harrison, Sandy P; Prentice, Iain Colin; Nordenstahl, Marisa; Smith, Benjamin

    2018-05-16

    Explanations of leaf size variation commonly focus on water availability, yet leaf size also varies with latitude and elevation in environments where water is not strongly limiting. We provide the first conclusive test of a prediction of leaf energy balance theory that may explain this pattern: large leaves are more vulnerable to night-time chilling, because their thick boundary layers impede convective exchange with the surrounding air. Seedlings of 15 New Zealand evergreens spanning 12-fold variation in leaf width were exposed to clear night skies, and leaf temperatures were measured with thermocouples. We then used a global dataset to assess several climate variables as predictors of leaf size in forest assemblages. Leaf minus air temperature was strongly correlated with leaf width, ranging from -0.9 to -3.2°C in the smallest- and largest-leaved species, respectively. Mean annual temperature and frost-free period were good predictors of evergreen angiosperm leaf size in forest assemblages, but no climate variable predicted deciduous leaf size. Although winter deciduousness makes large leaves possible in strongly seasonal climates, large-leaved evergreens are largely confined to frost-free climates because of their susceptibility to radiative cooling. Evergreen leaf size data can therefore be used to enhance vegetation models, and to infer palaeotemperatures from fossil leaf assemblages. © 2018 The Authors New Phytologist © 2018 New Phytologist Trust.

  17. Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  18. Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-01-01

    There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  19. What happened after the initial global spread of pandemic human influenza virus A (H1N1? A population genetics approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martinez-Hernandez Fernando

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Viral population evolution dynamics of influenza A is crucial for surveillance and control. In this paper we analyzed viral genetic features during the recent pandemic caused by the new influenza human virus A H1N1, using a conventional population genetics approach based on 4689 hemagglutinin (HA and neuraminidase (NA sequences available in GenBank submitted between March and December of 2009. This analysis showed several relevant aspects: a a scarce initial genetic variability within the viral isolates from some countries that increased along 2009 when influenza was dispersed around the world; b a worldwide virus polarized behavior identified when comparing paired countries, low differentiation and high gene flow were found in some pairs and high differentiation and moderate or scarce gene flow in others, independently of their geographical closeness, c lack of positive selection in HA and NA due to increase of the population size of virus variants, d HA and NA variants spread in a few months all over the world being identified in the same countries in different months along 2009, and e containment of viral variants in Mexico at the beginning of the outbreak, probably due to the control measures applied by the government.

  20. Spatio-temporal patterns and climate variables controlling of biomass carbon stock of global grassland ecosystems from 1982 to 2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Jiangzhou; Liu, Shuguang; Liang, Shunlin; Chen, Yang; Xu, Wenfang; Yuan, Wenping

    2014-01-01

    Grassland ecosystems play an important role in subsistence agriculture and the global carbon cycle. However, the global spatio-temporal patterns and environmental controls of grassland biomass are not well quantified and understood. The goal of this study was to estimate the spatial and temporal patterns of the global grassland biomass and analyze their driving forces using field measurements, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series from satellite data, climate reanalysis data, and a satellite-based statistical model. Results showed that the NDVI-based biomass carbon model developed from this study explained 60% of the variance across 38 sites globally. The global carbon stock in grassland aboveground live biomass was 1.05 Pg·C, averaged from 1982 to 2006, and increased at a rate of 2.43 Tg·C·y−1 during this period. Temporal change of the global biomass was significantly and positively correlated with temperature and precipitation. The distribution of biomass carbon density followed the precipitation gradient. The dynamics of regional grassland biomass showed various trends largely determined by regional climate variability, disturbances, and management practices (such as grazing for meat production). The methods and results from this study can be used to monitor the dynamics of grassland aboveground biomass and evaluate grassland susceptibility to climate variability and change, disturbances, and management.

  1. Attribution of Large-Scale Climate Patterns to Seasonal Peak-Flow and Prospects for Prediction Globally

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Donghoon; Ward, Philip; Block, Paul

    2018-02-01

    Flood-related fatalities and impacts on society surpass those from all other natural disasters globally. While the inclusion of large-scale climate drivers in streamflow (or high-flow) prediction has been widely studied, an explicit link to global-scale long-lead prediction is lacking, which can lead to an improved understanding of potential flood propensity. Here we attribute seasonal peak-flow to large-scale climate patterns, including the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), using streamflow station observations and simulations from PCR-GLOBWB, a global-scale hydrologic model. Statistically significantly correlated climate patterns and streamflow autocorrelation are subsequently applied as predictors to build a global-scale season-ahead prediction model, with prediction performance evaluated by the mean squared error skill score (MSESS) and the categorical Gerrity skill score (GSS). Globally, fair-to-good prediction skill (20% ≤ MSESS and 0.2 ≤ GSS) is evident for a number of locations (28% of stations and 29% of land area), most notably in data-poor regions (e.g., West and Central Africa). The persistence of such relevant climate patterns can improve understanding of the propensity for floods at the seasonal scale. The prediction approach developed here lays the groundwork for further improving local-scale seasonal peak-flow prediction by identifying relevant global-scale climate patterns. This is especially attractive for regions with limited observations and or little capacity to develop flood early warning systems.

  2. The ecology of methane in streams and rivers: Patterns, controls, and global significance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanley, Emily H.; Casson, Nora J.; Christel, Samuel T.; Crawford, John T.; Loken, Luke C.; Oliver, Samantha K.

    2016-01-01

    Streams and rivers can substantially modify organic carbon (OC) inputs from terrestrial landscapes, and much of this processing is the result of microbial respiration. While carbon dioxide (CO2) is the major end-product of ecosystem respiration, methane (CH4) is also present in many fluvial environments even though methanogenesis typically requires anoxic conditions that may be scarce in these systems. Given recent recognition of the pervasiveness of this greenhouse gas in streams and rivers, we synthesized existing research and data to identify patterns and drivers of CH4, knowledge gaps, and research opportunities. This included examining the history of lotic CH4 research, creating a database of concentrations and fluxes (MethDB) to generate a global-scale estimate of fluvial CH4 efflux, and developing a conceptual framework and using this framework to consider how human activities may modify fluvial CH4 dynamics. Current understanding of CH4 in streams and rivers has been strongly influenced by goals of understanding OC processing and quantifying the contribution of CH4 to ecosystem C fluxes. Less effort has been directed towards investigating processes that dictate in situ CH4 production and loss. CH4 makes a meager contribution to watershed or landscape C budgets, but streams and rivers are often significant CH4 sources to the atmosphere across these same spatial extents. Most fluvial systems are supersaturated with CH4 and we estimate an annual global emission of 26.8 Tg CH4, equivalent to ~15-40% of wetland and lake effluxes, respectively. Less clear is the role of CH4 oxidation, methanogenesis, and total anaerobic respiration to whole ecosystem production and respiration. Controls on CH4 generation and persistence can be viewed in terms of proximate controls that influence methanogenesis (organic matter, temperature, alternative electron acceptors, nutrients) and distal geomorphic and hydrologic drivers. Multiple controls combined with its

  3. Travel patterns during pregnancy: comparison between Global Positioning System (GPS) tracking and questionnaire data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jun; Jiang, Chengsheng; Jaimes, Guillermo; Bartell, Scott; Dang, Andy; Baker, Dean; Delfino, Ralph J

    2013-10-09

    Maternal exposures to traffic-related air pollution have been associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes. Exposures to traffic-related air pollutants are strongly influenced by time spent near traffic. However, little is known about women's travel activities during pregnancy and whether questionnaire-based data can provide reliable information on travel patterns during pregnancy. Examine women's in-vehicle travel behavior during pregnancy and examine the difference in travel data collected by questionnaire and global positioning system (GPS) and their potential for exposure error. We measured work-related travel patterns in 56 pregnant women using a questionnaire and one-week GPS tracking three times during pregnancy (30 weeks of gestation). We compared self-reported activities with GPS-derived trip distance and duration, and examined potentially influential factors that may contribute to differences. We also described in-vehicle travel behavior by pregnancy periods and influences of demographic and personal factors on daily travel times. Finally, we estimated personal exposure to particle-bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PB-PAH) and examined the magnitude of exposure misclassification using self-reported vs. GPS travel data. Subjects overestimated both trip duration and trip distance compared to the GPS data. We observed moderately high correlations between self-reported and GPS-recorded travel distance (home to work trips: r = 0.88; work to home trips: r = 0.80). Better agreement was observed between the GPS and the self-reported travel time for home to work trips (r = 0.77) than work to home trips (r = 0.64). The subjects on average spent 69 and 93 minutes traveling in vehicles daily based on the GPS and self-reported data, respectively. Longer daily travel time was observed among participants in early pregnancy, and during certain pregnancy periods in women with higher education attainment, higher income, and no children. When comparing

  4. Sauces, spices, and condiments: definitions, potential benefits, consumption patterns, and global markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Casal, Maria Nieves; Peña-Rosas, Juan Pablo; Malavé, Heber Gómez-

    2016-09-01

    Spices and condiments are an important part of human history and nutrition, and have played an important role in the development of most cultures around the world. According to the Codex Alimentarius, the category of salts, spices, soups, sauces, salads, and protein products includes substances added to foods to enhance aroma and taste. Spices have been reported to have health benefits as antioxidant, antibiotic, antiviral, anticoagulant, anticarcinogenic, and anti-inflammatory agents. Health claims about the benefits of condiments for disease prevention or health improvement need to be science based and extensively supported by evidence; data on their preventive or protective potential in humans are currently limited. The condiments market has been growing continuously over the last few years, with the quantity of products sold under the category of sauces, dressings, and condiments during the period 2008-2013 increasing from 31,749,000 to 35,795,000 metric tons. About 50 of the 86 spices produced in the world are grown in India. From 2008 to 2013, the United States was the largest importer of spices, followed by Australia, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Russia. The main buyers of fish sauce are Vietnam and Thailand, with purchases of 333,000 and 284,000 metric tons in 2013, respectively. The sauces and condiments category is dynamic, with large differences in consumption in habits and practices among countries. This paper aims to establish definitions and discuss potential health benefits, consumption patterns, and global markets for sauces, spices, and condiments. © 2016 New York Academy of Sciences.

  5. How Is Mono Spread?

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... How Is Mono Spread? Print My sister has mononucleosis. I drank out of her drink before we ... that I have mono now? – Kyle* Mono, or mononucleosis, is spread through direct contact with saliva. This ...

  6. NERBio: using selected word conjunctions, term normalization, and global patterns to improve biomedical named entity recognition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hung Hsieh-Chuan

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Biomedical named entity recognition (Bio-NER is a challenging problem because, in general, biomedical named entities of the same category (e.g., proteins and genes do not follow one standard nomenclature. They have many irregularities and sometimes appear in ambiguous contexts. In recent years, machine-learning (ML approaches have become increasingly common and now represent the cutting edge of Bio-NER technology. This paper addresses three problems faced by ML-based Bio-NER systems. First, most ML approaches usually employ singleton features that comprise one linguistic property (e.g., the current word is capitalized and at least one class tag (e.g., B-protein, the beginning of a protein name. However, such features may be insufficient in cases where multiple properties must be considered. Adding conjunction features that contain multiple properties can be beneficial, but it would be infeasible to include all conjunction features in an NER model since memory resources are limited and some features are ineffective. To resolve the problem, we use a sequential forward search algorithm to select an effective set of features. Second, variations in the numerical parts of biomedical terms (e.g., "2" in the biomedical term IL2 cause data sparseness and generate many redundant features. In this case, we apply numerical normalization, which solves the problem by replacing all numerals in a term with one representative numeral to help classify named entities. Third, the assignment of NE tags does not depend solely on the target word's closest neighbors, but may depend on words outside the context window (e.g., a context window of five consists of the current word plus two preceding and two subsequent words. We use global patterns generated by the Smith-Waterman local alignment algorithm to identify such structures and modify the results of our ML-based tagger. This is called pattern-based post-processing. Results To develop our ML

  7. NERBio: using selected word conjunctions, term normalization, and global patterns to improve biomedical named entity recognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, Richard Tzong-Han; Sung, Cheng-Lung; Dai, Hong-Jie; Hung, Hsieh-Chuan; Sung, Ting-Yi; Hsu, Wen-Lian

    2006-12-18

    Biomedical named entity recognition (Bio-NER) is a challenging problem because, in general, biomedical named entities of the same category (e.g., proteins and genes) do not follow one standard nomenclature. They have many irregularities and sometimes appear in ambiguous contexts. In recent years, machine-learning (ML) approaches have become increasingly common and now represent the cutting edge of Bio-NER technology. This paper addresses three problems faced by ML-based Bio-NER systems. First, most ML approaches usually employ singleton features that comprise one linguistic property (e.g., the current word is capitalized) and at least one class tag (e.g., B-protein, the beginning of a protein name). However, such features may be insufficient in cases where multiple properties must be considered. Adding conjunction features that contain multiple properties can be beneficial, but it would be infeasible to include all conjunction features in an NER model since memory resources are limited and some features are ineffective. To resolve the problem, we use a sequential forward search algorithm to select an effective set of features. Second, variations in the numerical parts of biomedical terms (e.g., "2" in the biomedical term IL2) cause data sparseness and generate many redundant features. In this case, we apply numerical normalization, which solves the problem by replacing all numerals in a term with one representative numeral to help classify named entities. Third, the assignment of NE tags does not depend solely on the target word's closest neighbors, but may depend on words outside the context window (e.g., a context window of five consists of the current word plus two preceding and two subsequent words). We use global patterns generated by the Smith-Waterman local alignment algorithm to identify such structures and modify the results of our ML-based tagger. This is called pattern-based post-processing. To develop our ML-based Bio-NER system, we employ conditional

  8. GIS-supported analysis of global patterns of anthropogenic forest degradation. A sectoral application of the syndrome concept

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cassel-Gintz, M.

    2001-06-01

    The geographical analysis of a Syndrome is performed in several steps integrating GIS with concepts of fuzzy logic and qualitative reasoning. In the first step a syndrome specific network of interactions is formulated by analysing case studies, theories and expert assessments. Based on this systemic representation the natural and socio-economic conditions under which the syndrome specific mechanisms can be active are identified. This evaluation is called the disposition of a region towards a specific Syndrome. The resulting indicator can be used as an early warning indicator for the possible germination of a non-sustainable development. Based on the constituting elements of the Syndrome, a complex indicator for the intensity of the active Syndrome is derived in the next step of the analysis. This indicator assesses the critical states in the dynamical evolution of the non-sustainable patterns of civilisation nature interaction. Complete Syndrome analyses are performed for the main Syndromes of deforestation. The resulting spatial distribution of the combined dispositions and intensities of the different Syndromes present a unique global assessment describing the current damage and future regional threats to forests by their underlying global cause-effect patterns of civilisation-nature interaction. Specially the assessment of the threat by coupling of momentarily active and potentially active cause-effect patterns provides a previously not achieved systematic insight into the complex interaction of different patterns of global deforestation and forest degradation. (orig.)

  9. Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    Andru?cã Maria Carmen

    2013-01-01

    The field of globalization has highlighted an interdependence implied by a more harmonious understanding determined by the daily interaction between nations through the inducement of peace and the management of streamlining and the effectiveness of the global economy. For the functioning of the globalization, the developing countries that can be helped by the developed ones must be involved. The international community can contribute to the institution of the development environment of the gl...

  10. Global patterns of organic carbon export and sequestration in the ocean (Arne Richter Award for Outstanding Young Scientists)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henson, S.; Sanders, R.; Madsen, E.; Le Moigne, F.; Quartly, G.

    2012-04-01

    A major term in the global carbon cycle is the ocean's biological carbon pump which is dominated by sinking of small organic particles from the surface ocean to its interior. Here we examine global patterns in particle export efficiency (PEeff), the proportion of primary production that is exported from the surface ocean, and transfer efficiency (Teff), the fraction of exported organic matter that reaches the deep ocean. This is achieved through extrapolating from in situ estimates of particulate organic carbon export to the global scale using satellite-derived data. Global scale estimates derived from satellite data show, in keeping with earlier studies, that PEeff is high at high latitudes and low at low latitudes, but that Teff is low at high latitudes and high at low latitudes. However, in contrast to the relationship observed for deep biomineral fluxes in previous studies, we find that Teff is strongly negatively correlated with opal export flux from the upper ocean, but uncorrelated with calcium carbonate export flux. We hypothesise that the underlying factor governing the spatial patterns observed in Teff is ecosystem function, specifically the degree of recycling occurring in the upper ocean, rather than the availability of calcium carbonate for ballasting. Finally, our estimate of global integrated carbon export is only 50% of previous estimates. The lack of consensus amongst different methodologies on the strength of the biological carbon pump emphasises that our knowledge of a major planetary carbon flux remains incomplete.

  11. Initial spread of "1"3"7Cs from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant over the Japan continental shelf. A study using a high-resolution, global-coastal nested ocean model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lai, Z.; Chen, C.; Lin, H.; Shanghai Ocean Univ.; Beardsley, R.; Ji, R.; Shanghai Ocean Univ.; Sasaki, J.; Lin, J.

    2013-01-01

    The 11 March 2011 tsunami triggered by the M9 and M7.9 earthquakes off the Tohoku coast destroyed facilities at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP) leading to a significant long-term flow of the radionuclide "1"3"7Cs into coastal waters. A high-resolution, global-coastal nested ocean model was first constructed to simulate the 11 March tsunami and coastal inundation. Based on the model's success in reproducing the observed tsunami and coastal inundation, model experiments were then conducted with differing grid resolution to assess the initial spread of "1"3"7Cs over the eastern shelf of Japan. The "1"3"7Cs was tracked as a conservative tracer (without radioactive decay) in the three-dimensional model flow field over the period of 26 March-31 August 2011. The results clearly show that for the same "1"3"7Cs discharge, the model-predicted spreading of "1"3"7Cs was sensitive not only to model resolution but also the FNPP seawall structure. A coarse-resolution (∝2 km) model simulation led to an overestimation of lateral diffusion and thus faster dispersion of "1"3"7Cs from the coast to the deep ocean, while advective processes played a more significant role when the model resolution at and around the FNPP was refined to ∝5 m. By resolving the pathways from the leaking source to the southern and northern discharge canals, the high-resolution model better predicted the "1"3"7Cs spreading in the inner shelf where in situ measurements were made at 30 km off the coast. The overestimation of "1"3"7Cs concentration near the coast is thought to be due to the omission of sedimentation and biogeochemical processes as well as uncertainties in the amount of "1"3"7Cs leaking from the source in the model. As a result, a biogeochemical module should be included in the model for more realistic simulations of the fate and spreading of "1"3"7Cs in the ocean.

  12. Initial spread of {sup 137}Cs from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant over the Japan continental shelf. A study using a high-resolution, global-coastal nested ocean model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lai, Z. [Sun Yat-Sen Univ., Guangzhou (China). School of Marine Sciences; Univ. of Massachusetts-Dartmouth, New Bedford, MA (United States). School for Marine Science and Technology; Key Laboratory of Marine Resources and Coastal Engineering in Guangdong Province, Guangzhou (China); Chen, C.; Lin, H. [Univ. of Massachusetts-Dartmouth, New Bedford, MA (United States). School for Marine Science and Technology; Shanghai Ocean Univ. (China). International Center for Marine Studies; Beardsley, R. [Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA (United States). Dept. of Physical Oceanography; Ji, R. [Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA (United States). Dept. of Biology; Shanghai Ocean Univ. (China). International Center for Marine Studies; Sasaki, J. [The Univ. of Tokyo, Kashiwa (Japan). Dept. of Socio-Cultural Environmental Studies; Lin, J. [Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA (United States). Dept. of Geology and Geophysics

    2013-07-01

    The 11 March 2011 tsunami triggered by the M9 and M7.9 earthquakes off the Tohoku coast destroyed facilities at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP) leading to a significant long-term flow of the radionuclide {sup 137}Cs into coastal waters. A high-resolution, global-coastal nested ocean model was first constructed to simulate the 11 March tsunami and coastal inundation. Based on the model's success in reproducing the observed tsunami and coastal inundation, model experiments were then conducted with differing grid resolution to assess the initial spread of {sup 137}Cs over the eastern shelf of Japan. The {sup 137}Cs was tracked as a conservative tracer (without radioactive decay) in the three-dimensional model flow field over the period of 26 March-31 August 2011. The results clearly show that for the same {sup 137}Cs discharge, the model-predicted spreading of {sup 137}Cs was sensitive not only to model resolution but also the FNPP seawall structure. A coarse-resolution (∝2 km) model simulation led to an overestimation of lateral diffusion and thus faster dispersion of {sup 137}Cs from the coast to the deep ocean, while advective processes played a more significant role when the model resolution at and around the FNPP was refined to ∝5 m. By resolving the pathways from the leaking source to the southern and northern discharge canals, the high-resolution model better predicted the {sup 137}Cs spreading in the inner shelf where in situ measurements were made at 30 km off the coast. The overestimation of {sup 137}Cs concentration near the coast is thought to be due to the omission of sedimentation and biogeochemical processes as well as uncertainties in the amount of {sup 137}Cs leaking from the source in the model. As a result, a biogeochemical module should be included in the model for more realistic simulations of the fate and spreading of {sup 137}Cs in the ocean.

  13. Global spread and genetic variants of the two CYP9M10 haplotype forms associated with insecticide resistance in Culex quinquefasciatus Say.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Itokawa, K; Komagata, O; Kasai, S; Kawada, H; Mwatele, C; Dida, G O; Njenga, S M; Mwandawiro, C; Tomita, T

    2013-09-01

    Insecticide resistance develops as a genetic factor (allele) conferring lower susceptibility to insecticides proliferates within a target insect population under strong positive selection. Intriguingly, a resistance allele pre-existing in a population often bears a series of further adaptive allelic variants through new mutations. This phenomenon occasionally results in replacement of the predominating resistance allele by fitter new derivatives, and consequently, development of greater resistance at the population level. The overexpression of the cytochrome P450 gene CYP9M10 is associated with pyrethroid resistance in the southern house mosquito Culex quinquefasciatus. Previously, we have found two genealogically related overexpressing CYP9M10 haplotypes, which differ in gene copy number (duplicated and non-duplicated). The duplicated haplotype was derived from the non-duplicated overproducer probably recently. In the present study, we investigated allelic series of CYP9M10 involved in three C. quinquefasciatus laboratory colonies recently collected from three different localities. Duplicated and non-duplicated overproducing haplotypes coexisted in African and Asian colonies indicating a global distribution of both haplotype lineages. The duplicated haplotypes both in the Asian and African colonies were associated with higher expression levels and stronger resistance than non-duplicated overproducing haplotypes. There were slight variation in expression level among the non-duplicated overproducing haplotypes. The nucleotide sequences in coding and upstream regions among members of this group also showed a little diversity. Non-duplicated overproducing haplotypes with relatively higher expression were genealogically closer to the duplicated haplotypes than the other non-duplicated overproducing haplotypes, suggesting multiple cis-acting mutations before duplication.

  14. Cardiac tissue geometry as a determinant of unidirectional conduction block: assessment of microscopic excitation spread by optical mapping in patterned cell cultures and in a computer model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fast, V G; Kléber, A G

    1995-05-01

    Unidirectional conduction block (UCB) and reentry may occur as a consequence of an abrupt tissue expansion and a related change in the electrical load. The aim of this study was to evaluate critical dimensions of the tissue necessary for establishing UCB in heart cell culture. Neonatal rat heart cell cultures with cell strands of variable width emerging into a large cell area were grown using a technique of patterned cell growth. Action potential upstrokes were measured using a voltage sensitive dye (RH-237) and a linear array of 10 photodiodes with a 15 microns resolution. A mathematical model was used to relate action potential wave shapes to underlying ionic currents. UCB (block of a single impulse in anterograde direction - from a strand to a large area - and conduction in the retrograde direction) occurred in narrow cell strands with a width of 15(SD 4) microns (1-2 cells in width, n = 7) and there was no conduction block in strands with a width of 31(8) microns (n = 9, P multiple rising phases. Mathematical modelling showed that two rising phases were caused by electronic current flow, whereas local ionic current did not coincide with the rising portions of the upstrokes. (1) High resolution optical mapping shows multiphasic action potential upstrokes at the region of abrupt expansion. At the site of the maximum decrement in conduction, these peaks were largely determined by the electrotonus and not by the local ionic current. (2) Unidirectional conduction block occurred in strands with a width of 15(4) microns (1-2 cells).

  15. Global biogeographical pattern of ecosystem functional types derived from earth observation data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ivits, Eva; Cherlet, Michael; Horion, Stéphanie Marie Anne F

    2013-01-01

    correspondence of the EFTs to global climate and also to land use classification. The results show the great potential of Earth Observation derived parameters for the quantification of ecosystem functional dynamics and for providing reference status information for future assessments of ecosystem changes........ The association of the EFTs with existing climate and land cover classifications was demonstrated via Detrended Correspondence Analysis (DCA). The ordination indicated good description of the global environmental gradient by the EFTs, supporting the understanding of phenological and productivity dynamics...... of global ecosystems. Climatic constraints of vegetation growth explained 50% of variation in the phenological data along the EFTs showing that part of the variation in the global phenological gradient is not climate related but is unique to the Earth Observation derived variables. DCA demonstrated good...

  16. A metric of influential spreading during contagion dynamics through the air transportation network.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christos Nicolaides

    Full Text Available The spread of infectious diseases at the global scale is mediated by long-range human travel. Our ability to predict the impact of an outbreak on human health requires understanding the spatiotemporal signature of early-time spreading from a specific location. Here, we show that network topology, geography, traffic structure and individual mobility patterns are all essential for accurate predictions of disease spreading. Specifically, we study contagion dynamics through the air transportation network by means of a stochastic agent-tracking model that accounts for the spatial distribution of airports, detailed air traffic and the correlated nature of mobility patterns and waiting-time distributions of individual agents. From the simulation results and the empirical air-travel data, we formulate a metric of influential spreading--the geographic spreading centrality--which accounts for spatial organization and the hierarchical structure of the network traffic, and provides an accurate measure of the early-time spreading power of individual nodes.

  17. Globalization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Plum, Maja

    Globalization is often referred to as external to education - a state of affair facing the modern curriculum with numerous challenges. In this paper it is examined as internal to curriculum; analysed as a problematization in a Foucaultian sense. That is, as a complex of attentions, worries, ways...... of reasoning, producing curricular variables. The analysis is made through an example of early childhood curriculum in Danish Pre-school, and the way the curricular variable of the pre-school child comes into being through globalization as a problematization, carried forth by the comparative practices of PISA...

  18. Defect Localization Capabilities of a Global Detection Scheme: Spatial Pattern Recognition Using Full-field Vibration Test Data in Plates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saleeb, A. F.; Prabhu, M.; Arnold, S. M. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    Recently, a conceptually simple approach, based on the notion of defect energy in material space has been developed and extensively studied (from the theoretical and computational standpoints). The present study focuses on its evaluation from the viewpoint of damage localization capabilities in case of two-dimensional plates; i.e., spatial pattern recognition on surfaces. To this end, two different experimental modal test results are utilized; i.e., (1) conventional modal testing using (white noise) excitation and accelerometer-type sensors and (2) pattern recognition using Electronic speckle pattern interferometry (ESPI), a full field method capable of analyzing the mechanical vibration of complex structures. Unlike the conventional modal testing technique (using contacting accelerometers), these emerging ESPI technologies operate in a non-contacting mode, can be used even under hazardous conditions with minimal or no presence of noise and can simultaneously provide measurements for both translations and rotations. Results obtained have clearly demonstrated the robustness and versatility of the global NDE scheme developed. The vectorial character of the indices used, which enabled the extraction of distinct patterns for localizing damages proved very useful. In the context of the targeted pattern recognition paradigm, two algorithms were developed for the interrogation of test measurements; i.e., intensity contour maps for the damaged index, and the associated defect energy vector field plots.

  19. Into and out of the tropics: global diversification patterns in a hyperdiverse clade of ectomycorrhizal fungi.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Looney, Brian P; Ryberg, Martin; Hampe, Felix; Sánchez-García, Marisol; Matheny, P Brandon

    2016-01-01

    Ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungi, symbiotic mutualists of many dominant tree and shrub species, exhibit a biogeographic pattern counter to the established latitudinal diversity gradient of most macroflora and fauna. However, an evolutionary basis for this pattern has not been explicitly tested in a diverse lineage. In this study, we reconstructed a mega-phylogeny of a cosmopolitan and hyperdiverse genus of ECM fungi, Russula, sampling from annotated collections and utilizing publically available sequences deposited in GenBank. Metadata from molecular operational taxonomic unit cluster sets were examined to infer the distribution and plant association of the genus. This allowed us to test for differences in patterns of diversification between tropical and extratropical taxa, as well as how their associations with different plant lineages may be a driver of diversification. Results show that Russula is most species-rich at temperate latitudes and ancestral state reconstruction shows that the genus initially diversified in temperate areas. Migration into and out of the tropics characterizes the early evolution of the genus, and these transitions have been frequent since this time. We propose the 'generalized diversification rate' hypothesis to explain the reversed latitudinal diversity gradient pattern in Russula as we detect a higher net diversification rate in extratropical lineages. Patterns of diversification with plant associates support host switching and host expansion as driving diversification, with a higher diversification rate in lineages associated with Pinaceae and frequent transitions to association with angiosperms. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Harrison

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Despite recent research identifying a clear anthropogenic impact on glacier recession, the effect of recent climate change on glacier-related hazards is at present unclear. Here we present the first global spatio-temporal assessment of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs focusing explicitly on lake drainage following moraine dam failure. These floods occur as mountain glaciers recede and downwaste. GLOFs can have an enormous impact on downstream communities and infrastructure. Our assessment of GLOFs associated with the rapid drainage of moraine-dammed lakes provides insights into the historical trends of GLOFs and their distributions under current and future global climate change. We observe a clear global increase in GLOF frequency and their regularity around 1930, which likely represents a lagged response to post-Little Ice Age warming. Notably, we also show that GLOF frequency and regularity – rather unexpectedly – have declined in recent decades even during a time of rapid glacier recession. Although previous studies have suggested that GLOFs will increase in response to climate warming and glacier recession, our global results demonstrate that this has not yet clearly happened. From an assessment of the timing of climate forcing, lag times in glacier recession, lake formation and moraine-dam failure, we predict increased GLOF frequencies during the next decades and into the 22nd century.

  1. Global patterns of plant root colonization intensity by mycorrhizal fungi explained by climate and soil chemistry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soudzilovskaia, N.A.; Douma, J.C.; Akhmetzhanova, A.A.; van Bodegom, P.M.; Cornwell, W.K.; Moens, E.J.; Treseder, K.K.; Tibbett, M.; Wang, Y.P.; Cornelissen, J.H.C.

    2015-01-01

    Aim Most vascular plants on Earth form mycorrhizae, a symbiotic relationship between plants and fungi. Despite the broad recognition of the importance of mycorrhizae for global carbon and nutrient cycling, we do not know how soil and climate variables relate to the intensity of colonization of plant

  2. The sequential patterning of tactics: Activism in the global sports apparel industry, 1988–2002

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    den Hond, F.; de Bakker, F.G.A.; de Haan, P.

    2010-01-01

    Purpose – Activist groups apply a range of tactics in order to improve labour conditions in the global sports and apparel industry. The accumulation of these tactics leads to the build-up of pressure on firms within this industry (brands, retailers) to change their policies and activities on labour

  3. Predicting changes in alluvial channel patterns in North-European Russia under conditions of global warming.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anisimov, O.; Vandenberghe, J.; Lobanov, V.; Kondratiev, A.

    2008-01-01

    Global climate change may have a noticeable impact on the northern environment, leading to changes in permafrost, vegetation and fluvial morphology. In this paper we compare the results from three geomorphological models and study the potential effects of changing climatic factors on the river

  4. Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, Stephan; Kargel, Jeffrey S.; Huggel, Christian; Reynolds, John; Shugar, Dan H.; Betts, Richard A.; Emmer, Adam; Glasser, Neil; Haritashya, Umesh K.; Klimeš, Jan; Reinhardt, Liam; Schaub, Yvonne; Wiltshire, Andy; Regmi, Dhananjay; Vilímek, Vít

    2018-04-01

    Despite recent research identifying a clear anthropogenic impact on glacier recession, the effect of recent climate change on glacier-related hazards is at present unclear. Here we present the first global spatio-temporal assessment of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) focusing explicitly on lake drainage following moraine dam failure. These floods occur as mountain glaciers recede and downwaste. GLOFs can have an enormous impact on downstream communities and infrastructure. Our assessment of GLOFs associated with the rapid drainage of moraine-dammed lakes provides insights into the historical trends of GLOFs and their distributions under current and future global climate change. We observe a clear global increase in GLOF frequency and their regularity around 1930, which likely represents a lagged response to post-Little Ice Age warming. Notably, we also show that GLOF frequency and regularity - rather unexpectedly - have declined in recent decades even during a time of rapid glacier recession. Although previous studies have suggested that GLOFs will increase in response to climate warming and glacier recession, our global results demonstrate that this has not yet clearly happened. From an assessment of the timing of climate forcing, lag times in glacier recession, lake formation and moraine-dam failure, we predict increased GLOF frequencies during the next decades and into the 22nd century.

  5. Reconstruction of global gridded monthly sectoral water withdrawals for 1971-2010 and analysis of their spatiotemporal patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Zhongwei; Hejazi, Mohamad; Li, Xinya; Tang, Qiuhong; Vernon, Chris; Leng, Guoyong; Liu, Yaling; Döll, Petra; Eisner, Stephanie; Gerten, Dieter; Hanasaki, Naota; Wada, Yoshihide

    2018-04-01

    Human water withdrawal has increasingly altered the global water cycle in past decades, yet our understanding of its driving forces and patterns is limited. Reported historical estimates of sectoral water withdrawals are often sparse and incomplete, mainly restricted to water withdrawal estimates available at annual and country scales, due to a lack of observations at seasonal and local scales. In this study, through collecting and consolidating various sources of reported data and developing spatial and temporal statistical downscaling algorithms, we reconstruct a global monthly gridded (0.5°) sectoral water withdrawal dataset for the period 1971-2010, which distinguishes six water use sectors, i.e., irrigation, domestic, electricity generation (cooling of thermal power plants), livestock, mining, and manufacturing. Based on the reconstructed dataset, the spatial and temporal patterns of historical water withdrawal are analyzed. Results show that total global water withdrawal has increased significantly during 1971-2010, mainly driven by the increase in irrigation water withdrawal. Regions with high water withdrawal are those densely populated or with large irrigated cropland production, e.g., the United States (US), eastern China, India, and Europe. Seasonally, irrigation water withdrawal in summer for the major crops contributes a large percentage of total annual irrigation water withdrawal in mid- and high-latitude regions, and the dominant season of irrigation water withdrawal is also different across regions. Domestic water withdrawal is mostly characterized by a summer peak, while water withdrawal for electricity generation has a winter peak in high-latitude regions and a summer peak in low-latitude regions. Despite the overall increasing trend, irrigation in the western US and domestic water withdrawal in western Europe exhibit a decreasing trend. Our results highlight the distinct spatial pattern of human water use by sectors at the seasonal and annual

  6. The spreading of "global state" in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia Aparecida Guarnieri Ortigoza

    2000-12-01

    Full Text Available Assiste-se cada vez mais à entrada de grandes redes de comércio integradas ao sistema de franquias no território brasileiro, o fast food tem se destacado pelo seu adiantado estágio de evoluçào no sentido de formatação e padronização das operações. O fast food é um sistem a capaz de criar imagens e códigos decifráveis por grupos, sugerindo e encadeando comportamentos, provocando de certa forma uma homogeneização do gosto em nível mundial. O horário dedicado às refeições é escasso e o fast food entra nessa conjuntura de um "novo tempo" no urbano. Essas alterações nas relações de produção nâo se dáo bruscamente, ao contrário, são reproduzidas através de inovações graduais e de maneira sutil, somente quando atingem um grau de amadurecimento é que essas mesmas relações perm item as mudanças. O fast food é um sistema de massa que atinge um mercado maior, passando por cima de costumes e tradições. O papel da mídia é muito importante nesse processo pois invade o cotidiano, num jogo de símbolos e signos, com significados pré-determinados. É pelo "lugar" que o "mundial" é empíricamente percebido. Nessa dinâmica, a homogeneização e a diferenciação ocorrem paralelamente

  7. Global spread and control of avian influenza

    Science.gov (United States)

    H5 and H7 high pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) viruses emerge from the mutation of H5 and H7 low pathogenicity avian influenza viruses (LPAI) after circulation in terrestrial poultry for a few weeks to years. There have been 42 distinct HPAI epizootics since 1959. The largest being the H5N1 A/G...

  8. Dielectric fluid directional spreading under the action of corona discharge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Shangru; Liu, Jie; Hu, Qun; Jiang, Teng; Yang, Jinchu; Liu, Sheng; Zheng, Huai

    2018-01-01

    Liquid spreading is a very common nature phenomenon and of significant importance for a broad range of applications. In this study, a dielectric fluid directional spreading phenomenon is presented. Under the action of corona discharge, a dielectric fluid, here a typical silicone directionally spreads along conductive patterns on conductive/nonconductive substrates. Directional spreading behaviors of silicone were experimentally observed on different conductive patterns in detail. Spreading speeds were analyzed at different driving voltages, which induced the corona discharge. The presented phenomenon may be useful to inspire several techniques of manipulating liquid transportation and fabricating micropatterns.

  9. A first look at the SAPFLUXNET database: global patterns in whole-plant transpiration and implications for ecohydrological research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poyatos, R.; Granda, V.; Mencuccini, M.; Flo, V.; Oren, R.; Molowny-Horas, R.; Katul, G. G.; Mahecha, M. D.; Steppe, K.; Cabon, A.; De Cáceres, M.; Martínez-Vilalta, J.

    2017-12-01

    Plant transpiration is the fundamental process linking water and vegetation and it is therefore a central topic in ecohydrological research. Globally, plants display a huge variety of coordinated adjustments in their physiology and structure to regulate transpiration in response to fluctuations of water demand and supply at multiple temporal scales. Sap flow measured in plant stems reveals the temporal patterns of these responses but sap flow data have remained fragmentary and generally unavailable for syntheses of regional to global scope. Here we present the first global database of sap flow measurements from individual plants (SAPFLUXNET, http://sapfluxnet.creaf.cat/), which has been compiled from > 150 datasets contributed by researchers worldwide. Received datasets were harmonised and conveniently stored in custom-designed R objects holding sap flow and environmental data time series, together with several ancillary metadata, enabling data access for synthesis activities. SAPFLUXNET covers most vegetated biomes and holds data for > 1500 individual plants, mostly trees, belonging to >100 species and > 50 genera. We retrieved water use traits indicative of maximum transpiration rates and of transpiration sensitivity to vapour pressure deficit using quantile regression approaches and moving window analyses. Global patterns of these water use traits were then analysed as a function of climate, plant functional type and stand characteristics. For example, maximum transpiration rates at a given plant diameter or sapwood area tended to be higher for Angiosperms compared to Gymnosperms, but this relationships converged to a more similar scaling between transpiration and leaf area across these groups. SAPFLUXNET is also a valuable tool to evaluate water balance components in ecosystem models. We combined SAPFLUXNET data with the MEDFATE model (https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/medfate/index.html) to validate an ecohydrological optimisation approach to retrieve

  10. Patterns of accentuated grey-white differentiation on diffusion-weighted imaging or the apparent diffusion coefficient maps in comatose survivors after global brain injury

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, E.; Sohn, C.-H.; Chang, K.-H.; Chang, H.-W.; Lee, D.H.

    2011-01-01

    Aim: To determine what disease entities show accentuated grey-white differentiation of the cerebral hemisphere on diffusion-weighted images (DWI) or apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) maps, and whether there is a correlation between the different patterns and the cause of the brain injury. Methods and materials: The DWI and ADC maps of 19 patients with global brain injury were reviewed and evaluated to investigate whether there was a correlation between the different patterns seen on the DWI and ADC maps and the cause of global brain injury. The ADC values were measured for quantitative analysis. Results: There were three different patterns of ADC decrease: a predominant ADC decrease in only the cerebral cortex (n = 8; pattern I); an ADC decrease in both the cerebral cortex and white matter (WM) and a predominant decrease in the WM (n = 9; pattern II); and a predominant ADC decrease in only the WM (n = 3; pattern III). Conclusion: Pattern I is cerebral cortical injury, suggesting cortical laminar necrosis in hypoxic brain injury. Pattern II is cerebral cortical and WM injury, frequently seen in brain death, while pattern 3 is mainly WM injury, especially found in hypoglycaemic brain injury. It is likely that pattern I is decorticate injury and pattern II is decerebrate injury in hypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy.Patterns I and II are found in severe hypoxic brain injury, and pattern II is frequently shown in brain death, whereas pattern III was found in severe hypoglycaemic injury.

  11. Trade Policies and the Changing Patterns of Protectionism during the Global Financial and Economic Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agnes Ghibuțiu

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The Great Recession of 2008–09 provided a fertile ground for protectionist pressures to increase. It caused a negative shock to the global economy that is comparable with the Great Depression of the 1930s. International trade suffered a historical collapse in 2009, but trade flows quickly rebounded thereafter. And unlike the Great Depression of the 1930s, the recent global economic contraction did not trigger a massive wave of protectionism as expected. Despite important adjustments in many countries’ trade policies during the crisis and, hence, a quite notable increase in the incidence of protectionist measures, there is a widely shared belief that crisis related protectionism has been kept under control, being rather modest and limited compared with both the negative effects of the crisis and the initial concerns. A large agreement emerged also among analysts on the important role of WTO’s multilateral rules and disciplines in preventing exacerbation of economic nationalism and protectionism. The views on intensity, dynamics and potential impact of current contemporary protectionism continue, however, to diverge as they reflect in part the significant differences between the results of the different monitoring exercises, carried out particularly by the WTO and Global Trade Alert. But beyond these differences, the latest monitoring reports contain alarming signs of escalating protectionism over the post-crisis years due to the growing difficulties in the world economy. This paper takes a look at the main trends in global protectionism during and after the crisis and some of its potential implications. In doing so, the paper starts by contrasting protectionism that accompanied the Great Depression of the 1930s with the present-day protectionist phenomenon in order to briefly outline the peculiarities of the latter. Then it addresses the main factors contributing to staving off trade protectionism during the recent crisis. Relying on the

  12. A pilot study using global positioning systems (GPS) devices and surveys to ascertain older adults' travel patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yen, Irene H; Leung, Cindy W; Lan, Mars; Sarrafzadeh, Majid; Kayekjian, Karen C; Duru, O Kenrik

    2015-04-01

    Some studies indicate that older adults lead active lives and travel to many destinations including those not in their immediate residential neighborhoods. We used global positioning system (GPS) devices to track the travel patterns of 40 older adults (mean age: 69) in San Francisco and Los Angeles. Study participants wore the GPS devices for 7 days in fall 2010 and winter 2011. We collected survey responses concurrently about travel patterns. GPS data showed a mean of four trips/day, and a mean trip distance of 7.6 km. Survey data indicated that older adults commonly made trips for four activities (e.g., volunteering, work, visiting friends) at least once each week. Older adults regularly travel outside their residential neighborhoods. GPS can document the mode of travel, the path of travel, and the destinations. Surveys can document the purpose of the travel and the impressions or experiences in the specific locations. © The Author(s) 2013.

  13. Toward Global Communication Networks: How Television is Forging New Thinking Patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Dennis M.; Fuchs, Mary

    1986-01-01

    Recent alliances between communication providers and computer manufacturers will lead to new technological combinations that will deliver visually-based ideas and information to a worldwide audience. Urges that those in charge of future video programs to consider their effects on children's language skills, thinking patterns, and intellectual…

  14. Genetic patterns across multiple introductions of the globally invasive crab genus Carcinus

    Science.gov (United States)

    The European green crab Carcinus maenas is one of the world's most successful aquatic invaders, having established populations on every continent with temperate shores. Here we describe patterns of genetic diversity across both the native and introduced ranges of C. maenas and it...

  15. Towards an ethnographic understanding of the European Marriage Pattern: Global correlates and links with female status

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carmichael, S.G.; van Zanden, J.L.

    2015-01-01

    This contribution compares the EMP, and the associated Western European family system (inheritance practices, intergenerational co-residence and exogamy), with what is known about family systems and marriage patterns in the rest of the world, with a special focus on the consequences of these family

  16. An analysis of rainfall patterns in Nigeria | Odjugo | Global Journal of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The rainfall pattern has also enhanced wind erosion/desertification, soil erosion and coastal flooding in the north, east and coastal areas of Nigeria respectively. With these impacts, the paper therefore recommends some adaptive and mitigation measures that could help to revert the current situation. Keywords: changing ...

  17. Epidemic spreading on interconnected networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saumell-Mendiola, Anna; Serrano, M Ángeles; Boguñá, Marián

    2012-08-01

    Many real networks are not isolated from each other but form networks of networks, often interrelated in nontrivial ways. Here, we analyze an epidemic spreading process taking place on top of two interconnected complex networks. We develop a heterogeneous mean-field approach that allows us to calculate the conditions for the emergence of an endemic state. Interestingly, a global endemic state may arise in the coupled system even though the epidemics is not able to propagate on each network separately and even when the number of coupling connections is small. Our analytic results are successfully confronted against large-scale numerical simulations.

  18. Global spatio-temporal patterns in human migration: a complex network perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Kyle F; D'Odorico, Paolo; Laio, Francesco; Ridolfi, Luca

    2013-01-01

    Migration is a powerful adaptive strategy for humans to navigate hardship and pursue a better quality of life. As a universal vehicle facilitating exchanges of ideas, culture, money and goods, international migration is a major contributor to globalization. Consisting of countries linked by multiple connections of human movements, global migration constitutes a network. Despite the important role of human migration in connecting various communities in different parts of the world, the topology and behavior of the international migration network and its changes through time remain poorly understood. Here we show that the global human migration network became more interconnected during the latter half of the twentieth century and that migrant destination choice partly reflects colonial and postcolonial histories, language, religion, and distances. From 1960 to 2000 we found a steady increase in network transitivity (i.e. connectivity between nodes connected to the same node), a decrease in average path length and an upward shift in degree distribution, all of which strengthened the 'small-world' behavior of the migration network. Furthermore, we found that distinct groups of countries preferentially interact to form migration communities based largely on historical, cultural and economic factors.

  19. Global spatio-temporal patterns in human migration: a complex network perspective.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyle F Davis

    Full Text Available Migration is a powerful adaptive strategy for humans to navigate hardship and pursue a better quality of life. As a universal vehicle facilitating exchanges of ideas, culture, money and goods, international migration is a major contributor to globalization. Consisting of countries linked by multiple connections of human movements, global migration constitutes a network. Despite the important role of human migration in connecting various communities in different parts of the world, the topology and behavior of the international migration network and its changes through time remain poorly understood. Here we show that the global human migration network became more interconnected during the latter half of the twentieth century and that migrant destination choice partly reflects colonial and postcolonial histories, language, religion, and distances. From 1960 to 2000 we found a steady increase in network transitivity (i.e. connectivity between nodes connected to the same node, a decrease in average path length and an upward shift in degree distribution, all of which strengthened the 'small-world' behavior of the migration network. Furthermore, we found that distinct groups of countries preferentially interact to form migration communities based largely on historical, cultural and economic factors.

  20. Global patterns of socioeconomic biomass flows in the year 2000. A comprehensive assessment of supply, consumption and constraints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krausmann, Fridolin; Erb, Karl-Heinz; Gingrich, Simone; Lauk, Christian; Haberl, Helmut

    2008-01-01

    Human use of biomass has become a major component of the global biogeochemical cycles of carbon and nitrogen. The use of land for biomass production (e.g. cropland) is among the most important pressures on biodiversity. At the same time, biomass is indispensable for humans as food, animal feed, raw material and energy source. In order to support research into these complex issues, we here present a comprehensive assessment of global socioeconomic biomass harvest, use and trade for the year 2000. We developed country-level livestock balances and a consistent set of factors to estimate flows of used biomass not covered by international statistics (e.g. grazed biomass, crop residues) and indirect flows (i.e. biomass destroyed during harvest but not used). We found that current global terrestrial biomass appropriation amounted to 18.7 billion tonnes dry matter per year (Pg/yr) or 16% of global terrestrial NPP of which 6.6 Pg/yr were indirect flows. Only 12% of the economically used plant biomass (12.1 Pg/yr) directly served as human food, while 58% were used as feed for livestock, 20% as raw material and 10% as fuelwood. There are considerable regional variations in biomass supply and use. Distinguishing 11 world regions, we found that extraction of used biomass ranged from 0.3 to 2.8 t/ha/yr, per-capita values varied between 1.2 and 11.7 t/cap/yr (dry matter). Aggregate global biomass trade amounted to 7.5% of all extracted biomass. An analysis of these regional patterns revealed that the level of biomass use per capita is determined by historically evolved patterns of land use and population density rather than by affluence or economic development status. Regions with low population density have the highest level of per-capita biomass use, high-density regions the lowest. Livestock, consuming 30-75% of all harvested biomass, is another important factor explaining regional variations in biomass use. Global biomass demand is expected to grow during the next decades

  1. Modelling unidirectional liquid spreading on slanted microposts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cavalli, Andrea; Blow, Matthew L.; Yeomans, Julia M.

    2013-01-01

    A lattice Boltzmann algorithm is used to simulate the slow spreading of drops on a surface patterned with slanted micro-posts. Gibb's pinning of the interface on the sides or top of the posts leads to unidirectional spreading over a wide range of contact angles and inclination angles of the posts....... Regimes for spreading in no, one or two directions are identified, and shown to agree well with a two-dimensional theory proposed in Chu, Xiao and Wang. A more detailed numerical analysis of the contact line shapes allows us to understand deviations from the two dimensional model, and to identify...

  2. Global and Regional Patterns of Tobacco Smoking and Tobacco Control Policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Islami, Farhad; Stoklosa, Michal; Drope, Jeffrey; Jemal, Ahmedin

    2015-08-01

    Tobacco smoking is a major worldwide cause of morbidity and mortality from various diseases, including urologic diseases. We reviewed, at global and regional levels, the prevalence and trends of tobacco smoking and legislative and regulatory efforts around tobacco control. We also provided information about electronic cigarette (e-cigarette) use. We used several sources to present the most up-to-date information from national surveys, including the Global Adult Tobacco Survey, the Global Tobacco Control Report, and the Global Youth Tobacco Survey. Smoking prevalence has been decreasing globally, although trends in smoking vary substantially across countries and by gender. Among men, smoking prevalence in most high-income countries started to decrease in the mid-1990s, followed after a few decades by generally smaller decreases in some low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, there has been no change, or there has even been an increase, in smoking prevalence in many other LMICs. Countries with the highest male smoking prevalence are located in East Asia, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe. Similar to men, smoking prevalence for women has been decreasing in most high-income countries and some LMICs, although the decrease began later and was slower than that for men. Except in a few countries, smoking is much less common for women than for men. Most countries with the highest smoking prevalence in women are in Europe. Countries that have implemented the best practices for tobacco control, including monitoring, smoke-free policies, cessation programs, health warnings, advertising bans, and taxation, have been able to reduce smoking rates and related harms. E-cigarette use has rapidly increased since its introduction to the market. Health care providers should advise smoking patients about quitting smoking. Countries must improve the implementation and enforcement of tobacco control policies. Particular attention should be paid to preventing an increase in

  3. Global gene expression patterns in the post-pneumonectomy lung of adult mice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ingenito Edward P

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Adult mice have a remarkable capacity to regenerate functional alveoli following either lung resection or injury that exceeds the regenerative capacity observed in larger adult mammals. The molecular basis for this unique capability in mice is largely unknown. We examined the transcriptomic responses to single lung pneumonectomy in adult mice in order to elucidate prospective molecular signaling mechanisms used in this species during lung regeneration. Methods Unilateral left pneumonectomy or sham thoracotomy was performed under general anesthesia (n = 8 mice per group for each of the four time points. Total RNA was isolated from the remaining lung tissue at four time points post-surgery (6 hours, 1 day, 3 days, 7 days and analyzed using microarray technology. Results The observed transcriptomic patterns revealed mesenchymal cell signaling, including up-regulation of genes previously associated with activated fibroblasts (Tnfrsf12a, Tnc, Eln, Col3A1, as well as modulation of Igf1-mediated signaling. The data set also revealed early down-regulation of pro-inflammatory cytokine transcripts and up-regulation of genes involved in T cell development/function, but few similarities to transcriptomic patterns observed during embryonic or post-natal lung development. Immunohistochemical analysis suggests that early fibroblast but not myofibroblast proliferation is important during lung regeneration and may explain the preponderance of mesenchymal-associated genes that are over-expressed in this model. This again appears to differ from embryonic alveologenesis. Conclusion These data suggest that modulation of mesenchymal cell transcriptome patterns and proliferation of S100A4 positive mesenchymal cells, as well as modulation of pro-inflammatory transcriptome patterns, are important during post-pneumonectomy lung regeneration in adult mice.

  4. Global metabolomic responses of Nitrosomonas europaea 19718 to cold stress and altered ammonia feeding patterns

    KAUST Repository

    Lu, Huijie

    2015-11-05

    © 2015 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg The model ammonia-oxidizing bacterium Nitrosomonas europaea represents one of the environmentally and biotechnologically significant microorganisms. Genome-based studies over the last decade have led to many intriguing discoveries about its cellular biochemistry and physiology. However, knowledge regarding the regulation of overall metabolic routes in response to various environmental stresses is limited due to a lack of comprehensive, time-resolved metabolomic analyses. In this study, gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC-MS)-based metabolic profiling was performed to characterize the temporal variations of N. europaea 19718 intercellular metabolites in response to varied temperature (23 and 10 °C) and ammonia feeding patterns (shock loading and continuous feeding of 20 mg N/L). Approximately 87 metabolites were successfully identified and mapped to the existing pathways of N. europaea 19718, allowing interpretation of the influence of temperature and feeding pattern on metabolite levels. In general, varied temperature had a more profound influence on the overall metabolism than varied feeding patterns. Total extracellular metabolite concentrations (relative to internal standards and normalized to biomass weight) were lower under cold stress and shock loading conditions compared with the control (continuous feeding at 23 °C). Cold stress caused the widespread downregulation of metabolites involved in central carbon metabolism, amino acid, and lipid synthesis (e.g., malonic acid, succinic acid, putrescine, and phosphonolpyruvate). Metabolites that showed differences under varied feeding patterns were mainly involved in nucleotide acid, amino acid, and lipid metabolism (e.g., adenine, uracil, and spermidine). This study highlighted the roles of central carbon and nitrogen metabolism in countering cold stress and altered ammonia availability. In addition, transcriptomic, proteomic, and metabolomic data from three

  5. Global metabolomic responses of Nitrosomonas europaea 19718 to cold stress and altered ammonia feeding patterns

    KAUST Repository

    Lu, Huijie; Ulanov, Alexander V.; Nobu, Masaru; Liu, Wen-Tso

    2015-01-01

    © 2015 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg The model ammonia-oxidizing bacterium Nitrosomonas europaea represents one of the environmentally and biotechnologically significant microorganisms. Genome-based studies over the last decade have led to many intriguing discoveries about its cellular biochemistry and physiology. However, knowledge regarding the regulation of overall metabolic routes in response to various environmental stresses is limited due to a lack of comprehensive, time-resolved metabolomic analyses. In this study, gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC-MS)-based metabolic profiling was performed to characterize the temporal variations of N. europaea 19718 intercellular metabolites in response to varied temperature (23 and 10 °C) and ammonia feeding patterns (shock loading and continuous feeding of 20 mg N/L). Approximately 87 metabolites were successfully identified and mapped to the existing pathways of N. europaea 19718, allowing interpretation of the influence of temperature and feeding pattern on metabolite levels. In general, varied temperature had a more profound influence on the overall metabolism than varied feeding patterns. Total extracellular metabolite concentrations (relative to internal standards and normalized to biomass weight) were lower under cold stress and shock loading conditions compared with the control (continuous feeding at 23 °C). Cold stress caused the widespread downregulation of metabolites involved in central carbon metabolism, amino acid, and lipid synthesis (e.g., malonic acid, succinic acid, putrescine, and phosphonolpyruvate). Metabolites that showed differences under varied feeding patterns were mainly involved in nucleotide acid, amino acid, and lipid metabolism (e.g., adenine, uracil, and spermidine). This study highlighted the roles of central carbon and nitrogen metabolism in countering cold stress and altered ammonia availability. In addition, transcriptomic, proteomic, and metabolomic data from three

  6. Global metabolomic responses of Nitrosomonas europaea 19718 to cold stress and altered ammonia feeding patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Huijie; Ulanov, Alexander V; Nobu, Masaru; Liu, Wen-Tso

    2016-02-01

    The model ammonia-oxidizing bacterium Nitrosomonas europaea represents one of the environmentally and biotechnologically significant microorganisms. Genome-based studies over the last decade have led to many intriguing discoveries about its cellular biochemistry and physiology. However, knowledge regarding the regulation of overall metabolic routes in response to various environmental stresses is limited due to a lack of comprehensive, time-resolved metabolomic analyses. In this study, gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS)-based metabolic profiling was performed to characterize the temporal variations of N. europaea 19718 intercellular metabolites in response to varied temperature (23 and 10 °C) and ammonia feeding patterns (shock loading and continuous feeding of 20 mg N/L). Approximately 87 metabolites were successfully identified and mapped to the existing pathways of N. europaea 19718, allowing interpretation of the influence of temperature and feeding pattern on metabolite levels. In general, varied temperature had a more profound influence on the overall metabolism than varied feeding patterns. Total extracellular metabolite concentrations (relative to internal standards and normalized to biomass weight) were lower under cold stress and shock loading conditions compared with the control (continuous feeding at 23 °C). Cold stress caused the widespread downregulation of metabolites involved in central carbon metabolism, amino acid, and lipid synthesis (e.g., malonic acid, succinic acid, putrescine, and phosphonolpyruvate). Metabolites that showed differences under varied feeding patterns were mainly involved in nucleotide acid, amino acid, and lipid metabolism (e.g., adenine, uracil, and spermidine). This study highlighted the roles of central carbon and nitrogen metabolism in countering cold stress and altered ammonia availability. In addition, transcriptomic, proteomic, and metabolomic data from three studies on N. europaea were compared to achieve a

  7. Compare local pocket and global protein structure models by small structure patterns

    KAUST Repository

    Cui, Xuefeng

    2015-09-09

    Researchers proposed several criteria to assess the quality of predicted protein structures because it is one of the essential tasks in the Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction (CASP) competitions. Popular criteria include root mean squared deviation (RMSD), MaxSub score, TM-score, GDT-TS and GDT-HA scores. All these criteria require calculation of rigid transformations to superimpose the the predicted protein structure to the native protein structure. Yet, how to obtain the rigid transformations is unknown or with high time complexity, and, hence, heuristic algorithms were proposed. In this work, we carefully design various small structure patterns, including the ones specifically tuned for local pockets. Such structure patterns are biologically meaningful, and address the issue of relying on a sufficient number of backbone residue fragments for existing methods. We sample the rigid transformations from these small structure patterns; and the optimal superpositions yield by these small structures are refined and reported. As a result, among 11; 669 pairs of predicted and native local protein pocket models from the CASP10 dataset, the GDT-TS scores calculated by our method are significantly higher than those calculated by LGA. Moreover, our program is computationally much more efficient. Source codes and executables are publicly available at http://www.cbrc.kaust.edu.sa/prosta/

  8. Global dispersal pattern of HIV type 1 subtype CRF01-AE : A genetic trace of human mobility related to heterosexual sexual activities centralized in southeast Asia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Angelis, Konstantinos; Albert, Jan; Mamais, Ioannis; Magiorkinis, Gkikas; Hatzakis, Angelos; Hamouda, Osamah; Struck, Daniel; Vercauteren, Jurgen; Wensing, Annemarie M J; Alexiev, Ivailo; Åsjö, Birgitta; Balotta, Claudia; Camacho, Ricardo J.; Coughlan, Suzie; Griskevicius, Algirdas; Grossman, Zehava; Horban, Andrzej; Kostrikis, Leondios G.; Lepej, Snjezana; Liitsola, Kirsi; Linka, Marek; Nielsen, Claus; Otelea, Dan; Paredes, Roger; Poljak, Mario; Puchhammer-Stöckl, Elisabeth; Schmit, Jean Claude; Sönnerborg, Anders; Staneková, Danica; Stanojevic, Maja; Boucher, Charles A B; Kaplan, Lauren; Vandamme, Anne Mieke; Paraskevis, Dimitrios

    2015-01-01

    Background. Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) subtype CRF01-AE originated in Africa and then passed to Thailand, where it established a major epidemic. Despite the global presence of CRF01-AE, little is known about its subsequent dispersal pattern. Methods. We assembled a global data set

  9. Patterns of globalized reproduction: Egg cells regulation in Israel and Austria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shalev Carmel

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Since the successful introduction of in vitro fertilization in 1978, medically assisted reproduction (MAR has proliferated in multiple clinical innovations. Consequently, egg cells have become an object of demand for both infertility treatment and stem cell research, and this raises complex legal, ethical, social and economic issues. In this paper we compare how the procurement and use of human egg cells is regulated in two countries: Israel and Austria. Israel is known for its scientific leadership, generous public funding, high utilization and liberal regulation of assisted reproductive technology (ART. Austria lies at the other extreme of the regulatory spectrum in terms of restrictions on reproductive interventions. In both countries, however, there is a constant increase in the use of the technology, and recent legal developments make egg cells more accessible. Also, in both countries the scarcity of egg cells in concert with the rising demand for donations has led to the emergence of cross-border markets and global 'reproductive tourism' practices. In Israel, in particular, a scandal known as the 'eggs affair' was followed by regulation that allowed egg cell donations from outside the country under certain conditions. Cross-border markets are developed by medical entrepreneurs, driven by global economic gaps, made possible by trans-national regulatory lacunae and find expression as consumer demand. The transnational practice of egg cell donations indicates the emergence of a global public health issue, but there is a general lack of medical and epidemiological data on its efficacy and safety. We conclude that there is need for harmonisation of domestic laws and formulation of new instruments for international governance.

  10. Patterns of globalized reproduction: Egg cells regulation in Israel and Austria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shalev, Carmel; Werner-Felmayer, Gabriele

    2012-04-18

    Since the successful introduction of in vitro fertilization in 1978, medically assisted reproduction (MAR) has proliferated in multiple clinical innovations. Consequently, egg cells have become an object of demand for both infertility treatment and stem cell research, and this raises complex legal, ethical, social and economic issues.In this paper we compare how the procurement and use of human egg cells is regulated in two countries: Israel and Austria. Israel is known for its scientific leadership, generous public funding, high utilization and liberal regulation of assisted reproductive technology (ART). Austria lies at the other extreme of the regulatory spectrum in terms of restrictions on reproductive interventions.In both countries, however, there is a constant increase in the use of the technology, and recent legal developments make egg cells more accessible. Also, in both countries the scarcity of egg cells in concert with the rising demand for donations has led to the emergence of cross-border markets and global 'reproductive tourism' practices. In Israel, in particular, a scandal known as the 'eggs affair' was followed by regulation that allowed egg cell donations from outside the country under certain conditions.Cross-border markets are developed by medical entrepreneurs, driven by global economic gaps, made possible by trans-national regulatory lacunae and find expression as consumer demand. The transnational practice of egg cell donations indicates the emergence of a global public health issue, but there is a general lack of medical and epidemiological data on its efficacy and safety. We conclude that there is need for harmonisation of domestic laws and formulation of new instruments for international governance.

  11. Analysis on Patterns of Globally Coupled Phase Oscillators with Attractive and Repulsive Interactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Peng-Fei; Xu Zhong-Bin; Ruan Xiao-Dong; Fu Xin

    2015-01-01

    The Hong–Strogatz (HS) model of globally coupled phase oscillators with attractive and repulsive interactions reflects the fact that each individual (oscillator) has its own attitude (attractive or repulsive) to the same environment (mean field). Previous studies on HS model focused mainly on the stable states on Ott–Antonsen (OA) manifold. In this paper, the eigenvalues of the Jacobi matrix of each fixed point in HS model are explicitly derived, with the aim to understand the local dynamics around each fixed point. Phase transitions are described according to relative population and coupling strength. Besides, the dynamics off OA manifold is studied. (paper)

  12. Spatial and temporal patterns of global H5N1 outbreaks

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Si, YL

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available -96. Walter, C., Mcbratney, A. B., Rossel, R. A. V. and Markus, J. A., 2005. Spatial point-process statistics: concepts and application to the analysis of lead contamination in urban soil. Environmetrics, 16, pp. 339-355. Ward, M. P., Maftei, D., Apostu... OF GLOBAL H5N1 OUTBREAKS Y.L. Si a,c, *, P. Debba b, A. K. Skidmore a, A. G. Toxopeus a, L. Li c a ITC, Department of Natural Resources, 7500AA Enschede, The Netherlands – (yali, skidmore, toxopeus)@itc.nl b Council for Scientific and Industrial...

  13. Global and local approaches to population analysis: Bonding patterns in superheavy element compounds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oleynichenko, Alexander; Zaitsevskii, Andréi; Romanov, Stepan; Skripnikov, Leonid V.; Titov, Anatoly V.

    2018-03-01

    Relativistic effective atomic configurations of superheavy elements Cn, Nh and Fl and their lighter homologues (Hg, Tl and Pb) in their simple compounds with fluorine and oxygen are determined using the analysis of local properties of molecular Kohn-Sham density matrices in the vicinity of heavy nuclei. The difference in populations of atomic spinors with the same orbital angular momentum and different total angular momenta is demonstrated to be essential for understanding the peculiarities of chemical bonding in superheavy element compounds. The results are fully compatible with those obtained by the relativistic iterative version of conventional projection analysis of global density matrices.

  14. Spread effects - methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    Diffusion of technology, environmental effects and rebound effects are the principal effects from the funding of renewable energy and energy economising. It is difficult to estimate the impact of the spread effects both prior to the measures are implemented and after the measures are carried out. Statistical methods can be used to estimate the spread effects, but they are insecure and always need to be complemented with qualitative and subjective evaluations. It is more adequate to evaluate potential spread effects from market and market data surveillance for a selection of technologies and parties. Based on this information qualitative indicators for spread effects can be constructed and used both ex ante and ex post (ml)

  15. The VULCANO spreading programme

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cognet, G.; Laffont, G.; Jegou, C.; Journeau, C.; Sudreau, F.; Pierre, J.; Ramacciotti, M. [CEA (Atomic Energy Commission), DRN/DER - Bat. 212, CEA Cadarache, 13108 St. Paul Lez Durance (France)

    1999-07-01

    Among the currently studied core-catcher projects, some of them suppose corium spreading before cooling, in particular the EPR (European Pressurized Reactor) core-catcher concept is based on mixing the corium with a special concrete, spreading the molten mixture on a large multi-layer surface cooled from the bottom and subsequently cooling by flooding with water. Therefore, melt spreading deserves intensive investigation in order to determine and quantify key phenomena which govern the stopping of spreading. In France, for some years, the Nuclear Reactor Division of the Atomic Energy Commission (CEA/DRN) has undertaken a large program to improve knowledge on corium behaviour and coolability. This program is based on experimental and theoretical investigations which are finally gathered in scenario and mechanistic computer codes. In this framework, the real material experimental programme, VULCANO, conducted within an European frame, is currently devoted to the study of corium spreading. In 1997 and 1998, several tests have been performed on dry corium spreading with various composition of melts. Although all the observed phenomena, in particular the differences between simulant and real material melts have not been yet totally explained, these tests have already provided a lot of information about: The behaviour of complex mixtures including refractory oxides, silica, iron oxides and in one case iron metal; Spreading progression, which was never stopped in any of these tests by a crust formation at the front; The structure of spread melts (porosity, crusts,...); Physico-chemical interaction between melt and the refractory substratum which was composed of zirconia bricks. (authors)

  16. The VULCANO spreading programme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cognet, G.; Laffont, G.; Jegou, C.; Journeau, C.; Sudreau, F.; Pierre, J.; Ramacciotti, M.

    1999-01-01

    Among the currently studied core-catcher projects, some of them suppose corium spreading before cooling, in particular the EPR (European Pressurized Reactor) core-catcher concept is based on mixing the corium with a special concrete, spreading the molten mixture on a large multi-layer surface cooled from the bottom and subsequently cooling by flooding with water. Therefore, melt spreading deserves intensive investigation in order to determine and quantify key phenomena which govern the stopping of spreading. In France, for some years, the Nuclear Reactor Division of the Atomic Energy Commission (CEA/DRN) has undertaken a large program to improve knowledge on corium behaviour and coolability. This program is based on experimental and theoretical investigations which are finally gathered in scenario and mechanistic computer codes. In this framework, the real material experimental programme, VULCANO, conducted within an European frame, is currently devoted to the study of corium spreading. In 1997 and 1998, several tests have been performed on dry corium spreading with various composition of melts. Although all the observed phenomena, in particular the differences between simulant and real material melts have not been yet totally explained, these tests have already provided a lot of information about: The behaviour of complex mixtures including refractory oxides, silica, iron oxides and in one case iron metal; Spreading progression, which was never stopped in any of these tests by a crust formation at the front; The structure of spread melts (porosity, crusts,...); Physico-chemical interaction between melt and the refractory substratum which was composed of zirconia bricks. (authors)

  17. Assessing historical global sulfur emission patterns for the period 1850--1990

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lefohn, A.S. [A.S.L. and Associates, Helena, MT (United States); Husar, J.D.; Husar, R.B. [Washington Univ., St. Louis, MO (United States). Center for Air Pollution Impact and Trend Analysis; Brimblecombe, P. [Univ. of East Anglia, Norwich (United Kingdom)

    1996-07-19

    Anthropogenic sulfur dioxide emissions from energy-producing and metal production activities have become an important factor in better understanding the relationship between humans and the environment. Concerns about (1) acid rain effects on the environment and (2) anthropogenic aerosols affecting possible global change have prompted interest in the transformation and fate of sulfur in the environment. One step in assessing the importance of sulfur emissions is the development of a reliable regional emission inventory of sulfur as a function of time. The objective of this research effort was to create a homogeneous database for historical sulfur emission estimates for the world. The time from 1850--1990 was selected to include the period of industrialization form the time the main production of fuels and minerals began until the most recent year for which complete production data exist. This research effort attempts to correct some of the deficiencies associated with previous global sulfur emission estimates by (1) identifying those production activities that resulted in sulfur emissions by country and (2) calculating historical emission trends by country across years. An important component of this study was the comparison of the sulfur emission results with those of previous studies.

  18. Staying in the Global City: Patterns of Luxury Hotel Localization in Santiago de Chile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodrigo Hidalgo

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Chile, for a long time a backwater of international tourism, is about to turn itself into a top–end destination, with the capital Santiago taking a leading role. In recent decades, international chains have constructed numerous luxury hotels aimed at the requirements of international city and business tourists. The continuing bicentric orientation of the city (core city and ‘modern town’, which has withstood all fragmentation processes, has led to a polycentric distribution of luxury hotels, with the largest, most expensive and most luxurious hotels situated in the ‘modern town’. The airport, the innovation centers and business parks, as well as the city center, have also seen investment. When compared with models of hotel localization in cities, it is evident that Santiago has overcome the traditional model of city tourism under the influence of globalization trends. Today the needs of global travelers, both city and business tourists, transport links and the surroundings of the hotels play an important role. This is reflected in the pricing structure and the distribution of luxury hotels across the city.

  19. Patterns and Variability in Global Ocean Chlorophyll: Satellite Observations and Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregg, Watson

    2004-01-01

    Recent analyses of SeaWiFS data have shown that global ocean chlorophyll has increased more than 4% since 1998. The North Pacific ocean basin has increased nearly 19%. These trend analyses follow earlier results showing decadal declines in global ocean chlorophyll and primary production. To understand the causes of these changes and trends we have applied the newly developed NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Assimilation Model (OBAM), which is driven in mechanistic fashion by surface winds, sea surface temperature, atmospheric iron deposition, sea ice, and surface irradiance. The model utilizes chlorophyll from SeaWiFS in a daily assimilation. The model has in place many of the climatic variables that can be expected to produce the changes observed in SeaWiFS data. This enables us to diagnose the model performance, the assimilation performance, and possible causes for the increase in chlorophyll. A full discussion of the changes and trends, possible causes, modeling approaches, and data assimilation will be the focus of the seminar.

  20. [Predicting the impact of global warming on the geographical distribution pattern of Quercus variabilis in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yao; Zhang, Xing-wang; Fang, Yan-ming

    2014-12-01

    The geographical distribution of Quercus variabilis in China with its climate characteristics was analyzed based on DIVA-GIS which was also used to estimate the response of future potential distribution to global warming by Bioclim and Domain models. Analysis results showed the geographical distribution of Q. variabilis could be divided into 7 subregions: Henduan Mountains, Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, North China, East China, Liaodong-Shandong Peninsula, Taiwan Island, and Qinling-Daba Mountains. These subregions are across 7 temperature zones, 2 moisture regions and 17 climatic subregions, including 8 climate types. The modern abundance center of Q. variabilis is Qinling, Daba and Funiu mountains. The condition of mean annual temperature 7.5-19.8 degrees C annual precipitation 471-1511 mm, is suitable for Q. variabilis. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC values), of Domain and Boiclim models were 0.910, 0.779; the former predicted that the potential regions of high suitability for Q. variabilis are Qinling, Daba, Funiu, Tongbai, and Dabie mountains, eastern and western Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, hills of southern Jiangsu and Anhui, part of the mountains in North China. Global warming might lead to the shrinking in suitable region and retreating from the south for Q. variabilis.

  1. Patterns of inequality: Dynamics of income distribution in USA and global energy consumption distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banerjee, Anand; Yakovenko, Victor

    2010-03-01

    Applying the principle of entropy maximization, we argued that the distribution of money in a closed economic system should be exponential [1], see also recent review [2]. In this talk, we show that income distribution in USA is exponential for the majority of population (about 97%). However, the high-income tail follows a power law and is highly dynamical, i.e., out of equilibrium. The fraction of income going to the tail swelled to 20% of all income in 2000 and 2006 at the peaks of speculative bubbles followed by spectacular crashes. Next, we analyze the global distribution of energy consumption per capita among different countries. In the first approximation, it is reasonably well captured by the exponential function. Comparing the data for 1990 and 2005, we observe that the distribution is getting closer to the exponential, presumably as a result of globalization of the world economy.[4pt] [1] A. A. Dragulescu and V. M. Yakovenko, Eur. Phys. J. B 17, 723 (2000). [2] V. M. Yakovenko and J. B. Rosser, to appear in Rev. Mod. Phys. (2009), arXiv:0905.1518.

  2. Global Observations of the 630-nm Nightglow and Patterns of Brightness Measured by ISUAL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chih-Yu Chiang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the distributions and occurrence mechanisms of the global local-midnight airglow brightness through FORMOSAT-2/ISUAL satellite imaging observations. We focus on the OI 630.0 nm nightglow emission at altitudes of ~250 km along equatorial space. The database used in this study included data from 2007 to 2008 under solar minimum conditions. The data were classified into four specified types in the statistical study. We found that the occurrence of equatorial brightness was often in the vicinity of the geographic equator and mostly at equinoxes with a tendency to move toward the summer hemisphere as the season changes. Conjugate brightness occurring simultaneously on both sides of the geomagnetic equator was observed predominantly in the northern winter. Furthermore, midnight brightness appeared to have lower luminosity from May to July. We suggest that the global midnight brightness associated with the locations and seasons was the result of several effects which include the influence of the thermospheric midnight temperature maximum (MTM, summer-to-winter neutral wind, and ionospheric anomalies.

  3. The Space-Time Variation of Global Crop Yields, Detecting Simultaneous Outliers and Identifying the Teleconnections with Climatic Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Najafi, E.; Devineni, N.; Pal, I.; Khanbilvardi, R.

    2017-12-01

    An understanding of the climate factors that influence the space-time variability of crop yields is important for food security purposes and can help us predict global food availability. In this study, we address how the crop yield trends of countries globally were related to each other during the last several decades and the main climatic variables that triggered high/low crop yields simultaneously across the world. Robust Principal Component Analysis (rPCA) is used to identify the primary modes of variation in wheat, maize, sorghum, rice, soybeans, and barley yields. Relations between these modes of variability and important climatic variables, especially anomalous sea surface temperature (SSTa), are examined from 1964 to 2010. rPCA is also used to identify simultaneous outliers in each year, i.e. systematic high/low crop yields across the globe. The results demonstrated spatiotemporal patterns of these crop yields and the climate-related events that caused them as well as the connection of outliers with weather extremes. We find that among climatic variables, SST has had the most impact on creating simultaneous crop yields variability and yield outliers in many countries. An understanding of this phenomenon can benefit global crop trade networks.

  4. Three-pattern decomposition of global atmospheric circulation: part II—dynamical equations of horizontal, meridional and zonal circulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Shujuan; Cheng, Jianbo; Xu, Ming; Chou, Jifan

    2018-04-01

    The three-pattern decomposition of global atmospheric circulation (TPDGAC) partitions three-dimensional (3D) atmospheric circulation into horizontal, meridional and zonal components to study the 3D structures of global atmospheric circulation. This paper incorporates the three-pattern decomposition model (TPDM) into primitive equations of atmospheric dynamics and establishes a new set of dynamical equations of the horizontal, meridional and zonal circulations in which the operator properties are studied and energy conservation laws are preserved, as in the primitive equations. The physical significance of the newly established equations is demonstrated. Our findings reveal that the new equations are essentially the 3D vorticity equations of atmosphere and that the time evolution rules of the horizontal, meridional and zonal circulations can be described from the perspective of 3D vorticity evolution. The new set of dynamical equations includes decomposed expressions that can be used to explore the source terms of large-scale atmospheric circulation variations. A simplified model is presented to demonstrate the potential applications of the new equations for studying the dynamics of the Rossby, Hadley and Walker circulations. The model shows that the horizontal air temperature anomaly gradient (ATAG) induces changes in meridional and zonal circulations and promotes the baroclinic evolution of the horizontal circulation. The simplified model also indicates that the absolute vorticity of the horizontal circulation is not conserved, and its changes can be described by changes in the vertical vorticities of the meridional and zonal circulations. Moreover, the thermodynamic equation shows that the induced meridional and zonal circulations and advection transport by the horizontal circulation in turn cause a redistribution of the air temperature. The simplified model reveals the fundamental rules between the evolution of the air temperature and the horizontal, meridional

  5. Seasonal patterns in human A (H5N1 virus infection: analysis of global cases.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maya B Mathur

    Full Text Available Human cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI A (H5N1 have high mortality. Despite abundant data on seasonal patterns in influenza epidemics, it is unknown whether similar patterns exist for human HPAI H5N1 cases worldwide. Such knowledge could help decrease avian-to-human transmission through increased prevention and control activities during peak periods.We performed a systematic search of published human HPAI H5N1 cases to date, collecting month, year, country, season, hemisphere, and climate data. We used negative binomial regression to predict changes in case incidence as a function of season. To investigate hemisphere as a potential moderator, we used AIC and the likelihood-ratio test to compare the season-only model to nested models including a main effect or interaction with hemisphere. Finally, we visually assessed replication of seasonal patterns across climate groups based on the Köppen-Geiger climate classification.We identified 617 human cases (611 with complete seasonal data occurring in 15 countries in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. Case occurrence was much higher in winter (n = 285, p = 0.03 than summer (n = 64, and the winter peak occurred across diverse climate groups. There was no significant interaction between hemisphere and season.Across diverse climates, HPAI H5N1 virus infection in humans increases significantly in winter. This is consistent with increased poultry outbreaks and HPAI H5N1 virus transmission during cold and dry conditions. Prioritizing prevention and control activities among poultry and focusing public health messaging to reduce poultry exposures during winter months may help to reduce zoonotic transmission of HPAI H5N1 virus in resource-limited settings.

  6. Global patterns and substrate-based mechanisms of the terrestrial nitrogen cycle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Niu, Shuli; Classen, Aimee Taylor; Dukes, Jeffrey S.

    2016-01-01

    availability but increase exponentially and become the dominant fate of N at high loading rates. The original N saturation hypothesis emphasises sequential N saturation from plant uptake to soil retention before N losses occur. However, biogeochemical models that simulate simultaneous competition for soil N...... substrates by multiple processes match the observed patterns of N losses better than models based on sequential competition. To enable better prediction of terrestrial N cycle responses to N loading, we recommend that future research identifies the response functions of different N processes to substrate...

  7. E-book usage on a global scale: patterns, trends and opportunities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Levine-Clark

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This study examines worldwide usage of over 600,000 e-books from EBL and ebrary. Using multiple modes of analysis, the study shows that there are variations in usage by geographic region as well as by subject. The study examines usage in relation to availability of titles, different types of usage per session, usage of the top ten percent of titles, and intensive and extensive use. These patterns can be used for benchmarking and as a model for local e-book studies.

  8. The ghosts of mammals past: biological and geographical patterns of global mammalian extinction across the Holocene.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turvey, Samuel T; Fritz, Susanne A

    2011-09-12

    Although the recent historical period is usually treated as a temporal base-line for understanding patterns of mammal extinction, mammalian biodiversity loss has also taken place throughout the Late Quaternary. We explore the spatial, taxonomic and phylogenetic patterns of 241 mammal species extinctions known to have occurred during the Holocene up to the present day. To assess whether our understanding of mammalian threat processes has been affected by excluding these taxa, we incorporate extinct species data into analyses of the impact of body mass on extinction risk. We find that Holocene extinctions have been phylogenetically and spatially concentrated in specific taxa and geographical regions, which are often not congruent with those disproportionately at risk today. Large-bodied mammals have also been more extinction-prone in most geographical regions across the Holocene. Our data support the extinction filter hypothesis, whereby regional faunas from which susceptible species have already become extinct now appear less threatened; they may also suggest that different processes are responsible for driving past and present extinctions. We also find overall incompleteness and inter-regional biases in extinction data from the recent fossil record. Although direct use of fossil data in future projections of extinction risk is therefore not straightforward, insights into extinction processes from the Holocene record are still useful in understanding mammalian threat.

  9. Design of Driving Behavior Pattern Measurements Using Smartphone Global Positioning System Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoyu Zhu

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The emergence of new technologies such as GPS, cellphone, Bluetooth device, etc. offers opportunities for collecting high-fidelity temporal-spatial travel data in a cost-effective manner. With the vehicle trajectory data achieved from a smartphone app Metropia, this study targets on exploring the trajectory data and designing the measurements of the driving pattern. Metropia is a recently available mobile traffic app that uses prediction and coordinating technology combined with user rewards to incentivize drivers to cooperate, balance traffic load on the network, and reduce traffic congestion. Speed and celeration (acceleration and deceleration are obtained from the Metropia platform directly and parameterized as individual and system measurements related to traffic, spatial and temporal conditions. A case study is provided in this paper to demonstrate the feasibility of this approach utilizing the trajectory data from the actual app usage. The driving behaviors at both individual and system levels are quantified from the microscopic speed and celeration records. The results from this study reveal distinct driving behavior pattern and shed lights for further opportunities to identify behavior characteristics beyond safety and environmental considerations.

  10. Author Correction: Global patterns in mangrove soil carbon stocks and losses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atwood, Trisha B.; Connolly, Rod M.; Almahasheer, Hanan; Carnell, Paul E.; Duarte, Carlos M.; Lewis, Carolyn J. Ewers; Irigoien, Xabier; Kelleway, Jeffrey J.; Lavery, Paul S.; Macreadie, Peter I.; Serrano, Oscar; Sanders, Christian J.; Santos, Isaac; Steven, Andrew D. L.; Lovelock, Catherine E.

    2018-03-01

    In the version of this Article originally published, the potential carbon loss from soils as a result of mangrove deforestation was incorrectly given as `2.0-75 Tg C yr-1'; this should have read `2-8 Tg C yr-1'. The corresponding emissions were incorrectly given as ` 7.3-275 Tg of CO2e'; this should have read ` 7-29 Tg of CO2e'. The corresponding percentage equivalent of these emissions compared with those from global terrestrial deforestation was incorrectly given as `0.2-6%'; this should have read `0.6-2.4%'. These errors have now been corrected in all versions of the Article.

  11. Analysis on Patterns of Globally Coupled Phase Oscillators with Attractive and Repulsive Interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Peng-Fei; Ruan, Xiao-Dong; Xu, Zhong-Bin; Fu, Xin

    2015-11-01

    The Hong-Strogatz (HS) model of globally coupled phase oscillators with attractive and repulsive interactions reflects the fact that each individual (oscillator) has its own attitude (attractive or repulsive) to the same environment (mean field). Previous studies on HS model focused mainly on the stable states on Ott-Antonsen (OA) manifold. In this paper, the eigenvalues of the Jacobi matrix of each fixed point in HS model are explicitly derived, with the aim to understand the local dynamics around each fixed point. Phase transitions are described according to relative population and coupling strength. Besides, the dynamics off OA manifold is studied. Supported by the National Basic Research Program of China under Grant No. 2015CB057301, the Applied Research Project of Public Welfare Technology of Zhejiang Province under Grant No. 201SC31109 and China Postdoctoral Science Foundation under Grant No. 2014M560483

  12. Global Diffusion Pattern and Hot SPOT Analysis of Vaccine-Preventable Diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Y.; Fan, F.; Zanoni, I. Holly; Li, Y.

    2017-10-01

    Spatial characteristics reveal the concentration of vaccine-preventable disease in Africa and the Near East and that disease dispersion is variable depending on disease. The exception is whooping cough, which has a highly variable center of concentration from year to year. Measles exhibited the only statistically significant spatial autocorrelation among all the diseases under investigation. Hottest spots of measles are in Africa and coldest spots are in United States, warm spots are in Near East and cool spots are in Western Europe. Finally, cases of measles could not be explained by the independent variables, including Gini index, health expenditure, or rate of immunization. Since the literature confirms that each of the selected variables is considered determinants of disease dissemination, it is anticipated that the global dataset of disease cases was influenced by reporting bias.

  13. GLOBAL DIFFUSION PATTERN AND HOT SPOT ANALYSIS OF VACCINE-PREVENTABLE DISEASES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Jiang

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Spatial characteristics reveal the concentration of vaccine-preventable disease in Africa and the Near East and that disease dispersion is variable depending on disease. The exception is whooping cough, which has a highly variable center of concentration from year to year. Measles exhibited the only statistically significant spatial autocorrelation among all the diseases under investigation. Hottest spots of measles are in Africa and coldest spots are in United States, warm spots are in Near East and cool spots are in Western Europe. Finally, cases of measles could not be explained by the independent variables, including Gini index, health expenditure, or rate of immunization. Since the literature confirms that each of the selected variables is considered determinants of disease dissemination, it is anticipated that the global dataset of disease cases was influenced by reporting bias.

  14. Temperature drives global patterns in forest biomass distribution in leaves, stems, and roots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reich, Peter B; Luo, Yunjian; Bradford, John B; Poorter, Hendrik; Perry, Charles H; Oleksyn, Jacek

    2014-09-23

    Whether the fraction of total forest biomass distributed in roots, stems, or leaves varies systematically across geographic gradients remains unknown despite its importance for understanding forest ecology and modeling global carbon cycles. It has been hypothesized that plants should maintain proportionally more biomass in the organ that acquires the most limiting resource. Accordingly, we hypothesize greater biomass distribution in roots and less in stems and foliage in increasingly arid climates and in colder environments at high latitudes. Such a strategy would increase uptake of soil water in dry conditions and of soil nutrients in cold soils, where they are at low supply and are less mobile. We use a large global biomass dataset (>6,200 forests from 61 countries, across a 40 °C gradient in mean annual temperature) to address these questions. Climate metrics involving temperature were better predictors of biomass partitioning than those involving moisture availability, because, surprisingly, fractional distribution of biomass to roots or foliage was unrelated to aridity. In contrast, in increasingly cold climates, the proportion of total forest biomass in roots was greater and in foliage was smaller for both angiosperm and gymnosperm forests. These findings support hypotheses about adaptive strategies of forest trees to temperature and provide biogeographically explicit relationships to improve ecosystem and earth system models. They also will allow, for the first time to our knowledge, representations of root carbon pools that consider biogeographic differences, which are useful for quantifying whole-ecosystem carbon stocks and cycles and for assessing the impact of climate change on forest carbon dynamics.

  15. Phase analysis of regional and global ventricular contraction patterns in Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Konishi, Tokuji; Koyama, Takao; Ichikawa, Takehiko

    1989-01-01

    Multigated blood pool scintigraphy was performed in 20 normal subjects and 39 patients with various intraventricular conduction abnormalities, including 25 patients with Wolff-Parkinson-White (WPW) syndrome. Cardiac imaging was performed in the modified left anterior oblique, right anterior oblique, and left lateral projections. In WPW syndrome, early contraction sites which were not seen in normal subjects were detected at the ventricular base in phase images. These anomalous early contraction sites disappeared after successful suppression of conduction through an accessory pathway by intravenous procainamide. These sites are believed to correspond to the location of the bundle of Kent and were consistent with the electrocardiographic findings. Phase mapping is a suitable noninvasive method to locate the position of the bundle of Kent and evaluate the ventricular contraction pattern in WPW syndrome and other intraventricular conduction abnormalities. (author)

  16. Reconstruction of global gridded monthly sectoral water withdrawals for 1971–2010 and analysis of their spatiotemporal patterns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Huang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Human water withdrawal has increasingly altered the global water cycle in past decades, yet our understanding of its driving forces and patterns is limited. Reported historical estimates of sectoral water withdrawals are often sparse and incomplete, mainly restricted to water withdrawal estimates available at annual and country scales, due to a lack of observations at seasonal and local scales. In this study, through collecting and consolidating various sources of reported data and developing spatial and temporal statistical downscaling algorithms, we reconstruct a global monthly gridded (0.5° sectoral water withdrawal dataset for the period 1971–2010, which distinguishes six water use sectors, i.e., irrigation, domestic, electricity generation (cooling of thermal power plants, livestock, mining, and manufacturing. Based on the reconstructed dataset, the spatial and temporal patterns of historical water withdrawal are analyzed. Results show that total global water withdrawal has increased significantly during 1971–2010, mainly driven by the increase in irrigation water withdrawal. Regions with high water withdrawal are those densely populated or with large irrigated cropland production, e.g., the United States (US, eastern China, India, and Europe. Seasonally, irrigation water withdrawal in summer for the major crops contributes a large percentage of total annual irrigation water withdrawal in mid- and high-latitude regions, and the dominant season of irrigation water withdrawal is also different across regions. Domestic water withdrawal is mostly characterized by a summer peak, while water withdrawal for electricity generation has a winter peak in high-latitude regions and a summer peak in low-latitude regions. Despite the overall increasing trend, irrigation in the western US and domestic water withdrawal in western Europe exhibit a decreasing trend. Our results highlight the distinct spatial pattern of human water use by sectors at

  17. Sensitivity of leaf size and shape to climate: Global patterns and paleoclimatic applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peppe, D.J.; Royer, D.L.; Cariglino, B.; Oliver, S.Y.; Newman, S.; Leight, E.; Enikolopov, G.; Fernandez-Burgos, M.; Herrera, F.; Adams, J.M.; Correa, E.; Currano, E.D.; Erickson, J.M.; Hinojosa, L.F.; Hoganson, J.W.; Iglesias, A.; Jaramillo, C.A.; Johnson, K.R.; Jordan, G.J.; Kraft, N.J.B.; Lovelock, E.C.; Lusk, C.H.; Niinemets, U.; Penuelas, J.; Rapson, G.; Wing, S.L.; Wright, I.J.

    2011-01-01

    Paleobotanists have long used models based on leaf size and shape to reconstruct paleoclimate. However, most models incorporate a single variable or use traits that are not physiologically or functionally linked to climate, limiting their predictive power. Further, they often underestimate paleotemperature relative to other proxies. Here we quantify leaf-climate correlations from 92 globally distributed, climatically diverse sites, and explore potential confounding factors. Multiple linear regression models for mean annual temperature (MAT) and mean annual precipitation (MAP) are developed and applied to nine well-studied fossil floras. We find that leaves in cold climates typically have larger, more numerous teeth, and are more highly dissected. Leaf habit (deciduous vs evergreen), local water availability, and phylogenetic history all affect these relationships. Leaves in wet climates are larger and have fewer, smaller teeth. Our multivariate MAT and MAP models offer moderate improvements in precision over univariate approaches (??4.0 vs 4.8??C for MAT) and strong improvements in accuracy. For example, our provisional MAT estimates for most North American fossil floras are considerably warmer and in better agreement with independent paleoclimate evidence. Our study demonstrates that the inclusion of additional leaf traits that are functionally linked to climate improves paleoclimate reconstructions. This work also illustrates the need for better understanding of the impact of phylogeny and leaf habit on leaf-climate relationships. ?? 2011 The Authors. New Phytologist ?? 2011 New Phytologist Trust.

  18. Global land use patterns and the production of bioenergy to 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smeets, E.; Faaij, A.; Lewandowski, I.

    2004-05-01

    The results of a bottom-up analysis of the theoretical global bioenergy production potential are presented and discussed, with specific attention for the impact of underlying factors, existing studies on agriculture and forestry and gaps in the knowledge base that explain ranges in estimates. The impact of various factors is analysed by means of scenario analysis. Results indicate that the key factor for bioenergy production on surplus agricultural land is the type of agricultural management system. Theoretically, 70% of the present agricultural land use can be made available for bioenergy production, without further deforestation or endangering the future supply of food. The bioenergy potential from surplus agricultural land is estimated at 215 EJy -1 to 1471 EJy -1 in 2050. The bulk of this potential comes from the developing regions South America and the Carribean (47-221 EJy -1 ) and sub-Saharan Africa (31-317 EJy -1 ) and the transition economies of the CIS and Baltic States (45-199 EJy -1 )

  19. Temporal Patterns of Happiness and Information in a Global Social Network: Hedonometrics and Twitter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dodds, Peter Sheridan; Harris, Kameron Decker; Kloumann, Isabel M.; Bliss, Catherine A.; Danforth, Christopher M.

    2011-01-01

    Individual happiness is a fundamental societal metric. Normally measured through self-report, happiness has often been indirectly characterized and overshadowed by more readily quantifiable economic indicators such as gross domestic product. Here, we examine expressions made on the online, global microblog and social networking service Twitter, uncovering and explaining temporal variations in happiness and information levels over timescales ranging from hours to years. Our data set comprises over 46 billion words contained in nearly 4.6 billion expressions posted over a 33 month span by over 63 million unique users. In measuring happiness, we construct a tunable, real-time, remote-sensing, and non-invasive, text-based hedonometer. In building our metric, made available with this paper, we conducted a survey to obtain happiness evaluations of over 10,000 individual words, representing a tenfold size improvement over similar existing word sets. Rather than being ad hoc, our word list is chosen solely by frequency of usage, and we show how a highly robust and tunable metric can be constructed and defended. PMID:22163266

  20. Global patterns of insect diversification: towards a reconciliation of fossil and molecular evidence?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Condamine, Fabien L; Clapham, Matthew E; Kergoat, Gael J

    2016-01-18

    Macroevolutionary studies of insects at diverse taxonomic scales often reveal dynamic evolutionary patterns, with multiple inferred diversification rate shifts. Responses to major past environmental changes, such as the Cretaceous Terrestrial Revolution, or the development of major key innovations, such as wings or complete metamorphosis are usually invoked as potential evolutionary triggers. However this view is partially contradicted by studies on the family-level fossil record showing that insect diversification was relatively constant through time. In an attempt to reconcile both views, we investigate large-scale insect diversification dynamics at family level using two distinct types of diversification analyses on a molecular timetree representing ca. 82% of the extant families, and reassess the insect fossil diversity using up-to-date records. Analyses focusing on the fossil record recovered an early burst of diversification, declining to low and steady rates through time, interrupted by extinction events. Phylogenetic analyses showed that major shifts of diversification rates only occurred in the four richest holometabolous orders. Both suggest that neither the development of flight or complete metamorphosis nor the Cretaceous Terrestrial Revolution environmental changes induced immediate changes in diversification regimes; instead clade-specific innovations likely promoted the diversification of major insect orders.

  1. Global patterns and substrate-based mechanisms of the terrestrial nitrogen cycle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niu, Shuli; Classen, Aimée T; Dukes, Jeffrey S; Kardol, Paul; Liu, Lingli; Luo, Yiqi; Rustad, Lindsey; Sun, Jian; Tang, Jianwu; Templer, Pamela H; Thomas, R Quinn; Tian, Dashuan; Vicca, Sara; Wang, Ying-Ping; Xia, Jianyang; Zaehle, Sönke

    2016-06-01

    Nitrogen (N) deposition is impacting the services that ecosystems provide to humanity. However, the mechanisms determining impacts on the N cycle are not fully understood. To explore the mechanistic underpinnings of N impacts on N cycle processes, we reviewed and synthesised recent progress in ecosystem N research through empirical studies, conceptual analysis and model simulations. Experimental and observational studies have revealed that the stimulation of plant N uptake and soil retention generally diminishes as N loading increases, while dissolved and gaseous losses of N occur at low N availability but increase exponentially and become the dominant fate of N at high loading rates. The original N saturation hypothesis emphasises sequential N saturation from plant uptake to soil retention before N losses occur. However, biogeochemical models that simulate simultaneous competition for soil N substrates by multiple processes match the observed patterns of N losses better than models based on sequential competition. To enable better prediction of terrestrial N cycle responses to N loading, we recommend that future research identifies the response functions of different N processes to substrate availability using manipulative experiments, and incorporates the measured N saturation response functions into conceptual, theoretical and quantitative analyses. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  2. Confirmation of a change in the global shear velocity pattern at around 1000 km depth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durand, S.; Debayle, E.; Ricard, Y.; Zaroli, C.; Lambotte, S.

    2017-12-01

    In this study, we confirm the existence of a change in the shear velocity spectrum around 1000 km depth based on a new shear velocity tomographic model of the Earth's mantle, SEISGLOB2. This model is based on Rayleigh surface wave phase velocities, self- and cross-coupling structure coefficients of spheroidal normal modes and body wave traveltimes which are, for the first time, combined in a tomographic inversion. SEISGLOB2 is developed up to spherical harmonic degree 40 and in 21 radial spline functions. The spectrum of SEISGLOB2 is the flattest (i.e. richest in 'short' wavelengths corresponding to spherical harmonic degrees greater than 10) around 1000 km depth and this flattening occurs between 670 and 1500 km depth. We also confirm various changes in the continuity of slabs and mantle plumes all around 1000 km depth where we also observed the upper boundary of Large Low Shear Velocity Provinces. The existence of a flatter spectrum, richer in short-wavelength heterogeneities, in a region of the mid-mantle can have great impacts on our understanding of the mantle dynamics and should thus be better understood in the future. Although a viscosity increase, a phase change or a compositional change can all concur to induce this change of pattern, its precise origin is still very uncertain.

  3. Not just a fallback food: global patterns of insect consumption related to geography, not agriculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lesnik, Julie J

    2017-07-08

    Insects as food are often viewed as fallback resources and associated with marginal environments. This study investigates the relationship between insect consumption and noncultivated landscapes as well as with other independent variables including latitude, area, population, and gross domestic product. Data were obtained from online databases including the World List of Edible Insects, the World Bank, and the World Factbook. A logistic regression model found that latitude could correctly predict the presence of edible insects 80% of the time and that arable land and gross domestic product showed no effect. Spearman rank-order correlation with number of insect species found significant relationships between area and population (but not density) and per capita gross domestic product as well as latitude. Further analysis of latitude using paired Mann-Whitney tests identified a general gradient pattern in reduction of edible insects with increased latitude. Results suggest that insect consumption represents a dynamic human-environment interaction, whereby insects are utilized in some of the world's lushest environments as well as areas where people have had great impact on the ecosystem. The concept that insects are a fallback food is an oversimplification that is likely rooted in Western bias against this food source. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  4. Connectivity diagnostics in the Mediterranean obtained from Lagrangian Flow Networks; global patterns, sensitivity and robustness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monroy, Pedro; Rossi, Vincent; Ser-Giacomi, Enrico; López, Cristóbal; Hernández-García, Emilio

    2017-04-01

    Lagrangian Flow Network (LFN) is a modeling framework in which geographical sub-areas of the ocean are represented as nodes in a network and are interconnected by links representing the transport of water, substances or propagules (eggs and larvae) by currents. Here we compute for the surface of the whole Mediterranean basin four connectivity metrics derived from LFN that measure retention and exchange processes, thus providing a systematic characterization of propagule dispersal driven by the ocean circulation. Then we assess the sensitivity and robustness of the results with respect to the most relevant parameters: the density of released particles, the node size (spatial-scales of discretization), the Pelagic Larval Duration (PLD) and the modality of spawning. We find a threshold for the number of particles per node that guarantees reliable values for most of the metrics examined, independently of node size. For our setup, this threshold is 100 particles per node. We also find that the size of network nodes has a non-trivial influence on the spatial variability of both exchange and retention metrics. Although the spatio-temporal fluctuations of the circulation affect larval transport in a complex and unpredictable manner, our analyses evidence how specific biological parametrization impact the robustness of connectivity diagnostics. Connectivity estimates for long PLDs are more robust against biological uncertainties (PLD and spawning date) than for short PLDs. Furthermore, our model suggests that for mass-spawners that release propagules over short periods (≃ 2 to 10 days), daily release must be simulated to properly consider connectivity fluctuations. In contrast, average connectivity estimates for species that spawn repeatedly over longer duration (a few weeks to a few months) remain robust even using longer periodicity (5 to 10 days). Our results give a global view of the surface connectivity of the Mediterranean Sea and have implications for the design of

  5. Medical Information Exchange: Pattern of Global Mobile Messenger Usage among Otolaryngologists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegal, Gil; Dagan, Elad; Wolf, Michael; Duvdevani, Shay; Alon, Eran E

    2016-11-01

    Information technology has revolutionized health care. However, the development of dedicated mobile health software has been lagging, leading to the use of general mobile applications to fill in the void. The use of such applications has several legal, ethical, and regulatory implications. We examined the experience and practices governing the usage of a global mobile messenger application (WhatsApp) for mobile health purposes in a national cohort of practicing otolaryngologists in Israel, a known early adaptor information technology society. Cross-sectional data were collected from practicing otolaryngologists and otolaryngology residents via self-administered questionnaire. The questionnaire was composed of a demographic section, a section surveying the practices of mobile application use, mobile health application use, and knowledge regarding institutional policies governing the transmission of medical data. The sample included 22 otolaryngology residents and 47 practicing otolaryngologists. Of the physicians, 83% worked in academic centers, and 88% and 40% of the physicians who worked in a hospital setting or a community clinic used WhatsApp for medical use, respectively. Working with residents increased the medical usage of WhatsApp from 50% to 91% (P = .006). Finally, 72% were unfamiliar with any institutional policy regarding the transfer of medical information by personal smartphones. Mobile health is becoming an integral part of modern medical systems, improving accessibility, efficiency, and possibly quality of medical care. The need to incorporate personal mobile devices in the overall information technology standards, guidelines, and regulation is becoming more acute. Nonetheless, practices must be properly instituted to prevent unwanted consequences. © American Academy of Otolaryngology—Head and Neck Surgery Foundation 2016.

  6. Global patterns and trends in stomach cancer incidence: Age, period and birth cohort analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Ganfeng; Zhang, Yanting; Guo, Pi; Wang, Li; Huang, Yuanwei; Li, Ke

    2017-10-01

    The cases of stomach cancer (SC) incidence are increasing per year and the SC burden has remained very high in some countries. We aimed to evaluate the global geographical variation in SC incidence and temporal trends from 1978 to 2007, with an emphasis on the effect of birth cohort. Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort model were applied. From 2003 to 2007, male rate were 1.5- to 3-fold higher than female in all countries. Rates were highest in Eastern Asian and South American countries. Except for Uganda, all countries showed favorable trends. Pronounced cohort-specific increases in risk for recent birth cohorts were seen in Brazil, Colombia, Iceland, New Zealand, Norway, Uganda and US white people for males and in Australia, Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Czech Republic, Ecuador, Iceland, India, Malta, New Zealand, Norway, Switzerland, United Kingdom, Uganda, US black and white people for females. The cohort-specific ratio for male significantly decreased in Japan, Malta and Spain for cohorts born since 1950 and in Austria, China, Croatia, Ecuador, Russia, Switzerland and Thailand for cohorts born since 1960 and for female in Japan for cohorts born since 1950 and in Canada, China, Croatia, Latvia, Russia and Thailand for cohorts born since 1960. Disparities in incidence and carcinogenic risk persist worldwide. The favorable trends may be due to changes in environmental exposure and lifestyle, including decreased Helicobacter pylori prevalence, increased intake of fresh fruits and vegetables, the availability of refrigeration and decreased intake of salted and preserved food and smoking prevalence. © 2017 UICC.

  7. Coal and Oil: The Dark Monarchs of Global Energy: Understanding Supply and Extraction Patterns and their Importance for Future Production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoeoek, Mikael

    2010-01-01

    The formation of modern society has been dominated by coal and oil, and together these two fossil fuels account for nearly two thirds of all primary energy used by mankind. This makes future production a key question for future social development and this thesis attempts to answer whether it is possible to rely on an assumption of ever increasing production of coal and oil. Both coal and oil are finite resources, created over long time scales by geological processes. It is thus impossible to extract more fossil fuels than geologically available. In other words, there are limits to growth imposed by nature. The concept of depletion and exhaustion of recoverable resources is a fundamental question for the future extraction of coal and oil. Historical experience shows that peaking is a well established phenomenon in production of various natural resources. Coal and oil are no exceptions, and historical data shows that easily exploitable resources are exhausted while more challenging deposits are left for the future. For oil, depletion can also be tied directly to the physical laws governing fluid flows in reservoirs. Understanding and predicting behaviour of individual fields, in particularly giant fields, are essential for understanding future production. Based on comprehensive databases with reserve and production data for hundreds of oilfields, typical patterns were found. Alternatively, depletion can manifest itself indirectly through various mechanisms. This has been studied for coal. Over 60% of the global crude oil production is derived from only around 330 giant oilfields, where many of them are becoming increasingly mature. The annual decline in existing oil production has been determined to be around 6% and it is unrealistic that this will be offset by new field developments, additional discoveries or unconventional oil. This implies that the peak of the oil age is here. For coal a similar picture emerges, where 90% of the global coal production originates

  8. Global patterns of extinction risk in marine and non-marine systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Thomas J; Mindel, Beth L

    2015-02-16

    Despite increasing concern over the effects of human activities on marine ecosystems, extinction in the sea remains scarce: 19-24 out of a total of >850 recorded extinctions implies a 9-fold lower marine extinction rate compared to non-marine systems. The extent of threats faced by marine systems, and their resilience to them, receive considerable attention, but the detectability of marine extinctions is less well understood. Before its extinction or threat status is recorded, a species must be both taxonomically described and then formally assessed; lower rates of either process for marine species could thus impact patterns of extinction risk, especially as species missing from taxonomic inventories may often be more vulnerable than described species. We combine data on taxonomic description with conservation assessments from the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) to test these possibilities across almost all marine and non-marine eukaryotes. We find that the 9-fold lower rate of recorded extinctions and 4-fold lower rate of ongoing extinction risk across marine species can be explained in part by differences in the proportion of species assessed by the IUCN (3% cf. 4% of non-marine species). Furthermore, once taxonomic knowledge and conservation assessments pass a threshold level, differences in extinction risk between marine and non-marine groups largely disappear. Indeed, across the best-studied taxonomic groups, there is no difference between marine and non-marine systems, with on average between 20% and 25% of species being threatened with extinction, regardless of realm. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Effectiveness of biological surrogates for predicting patterns of marine biodiversity: a global meta-analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camille Mellin

    Full Text Available The use of biological surrogates as proxies for biodiversity patterns is gaining popularity, particularly in marine systems where field surveys can be expensive and species richness high. Yet, uncertainty regarding their applicability remains because of inconsistency of definitions, a lack of standard methods for estimating effectiveness, and variable spatial scales considered. We present a Bayesian meta-analysis of the effectiveness of biological surrogates in marine ecosystems. Surrogate effectiveness was defined both as the proportion of surrogacy tests where predictions based on surrogates were better than random (i.e., low probability of making a Type I error; P and as the predictability of targets using surrogates (R(2. A total of 264 published surrogacy tests combined with prior probabilities elicited from eight international experts demonstrated that the habitat, spatial scale, type of surrogate and statistical method used all influenced surrogate effectiveness, at least according to either P or R(2. The type of surrogate used (higher-taxa, cross-taxa or subset taxa was the best predictor of P, with the higher-taxa surrogates outperforming all others. The marine habitat was the best predictor of R(2, with particularly low predictability in tropical reefs. Surrogate effectiveness was greatest for higher-taxa surrogates at a <10-km spatial scale, in low-complexity marine habitats such as soft bottoms, and using multivariate-based methods. Comparisons with terrestrial studies in terms of the methods used to study surrogates revealed that marine applications still ignore some problems with several widely used statistical approaches to surrogacy. Our study provides a benchmark for the reliable use of biological surrogates in marine ecosystems, and highlights directions for future development of biological surrogates in predicting biodiversity.

  10. Regionalizing Africa: Patterns of Precipitation Variability in Observations and Global Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badr, Hamada S.; Dezfuli, Amin K.; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

    2016-01-01

    Many studies have documented dramatic climatic and environmental changes that have affected Africa over different time scales. These studies often raise questions regarding the spatial extent and regional connectivity of changes inferred from observations and proxies and/or derived from climate models. Objective regionalization offers a tool for addressing these questions. To demonstrate this potential, applications of hierarchical climate regionalizations of Africa using observations and GCM historical simulations and future projections are presented. First, Africa is regionalized based on interannual precipitation variability using Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) data for the period 19812014. A number of data processing techniques and clustering algorithms are tested to ensure a robust definition of climate regions. These regionalization results highlight the seasonal and even month-to-month specificity of regional climate associations across the continent, emphasizing the need to consider time of year as well as research question when defining a coherent region for climate analysis. CHIRPS regions are then compared to those of five GCMs for the historic period, with a focus on boreal summer. Results show that some GCMs capture the climatic coherence of the Sahel and associated teleconnections in a manner that is similar to observations, while other models break the Sahel into uncorrelated subregions or produce a Sahel-like region of variability that is spatially displaced from observations. Finally, shifts in climate regions under projected twenty-first-century climate change for different GCMs and emissions pathways are examined. A projected change is found in the coherence of the Sahel, in which the western and eastern Sahel become distinct regions with different teleconnections. This pattern is most pronounced in high-emissions scenarios.

  11. Global distribution and vertical patterns of a prymnesiophyte-cyanobacteria obligate symbiosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cabello, Ana M; Cornejo-Castillo, Francisco M; Raho, Nicolas; Blasco, Dolors; Vidal, Montserrat; Audic, Stéphane; de Vargas, Colomban; Latasa, Mikel; Acinas, Silvia G; Massana, Ramon

    2016-03-01

    A marine symbiosis has been recently discovered between prymnesiophyte species and the unicellular diazotrophic cyanobacterium UCYN-A. At least two different UCYN-A phylotypes exist, the clade UCYN-A1 in symbiosis with an uncultured small prymnesiophyte and the clade UCYN-A2 in symbiosis with the larger Braarudosphaera bigelowii. We targeted the prymnesiophyte-UCYN-A1 symbiosis by double CARD-FISH (catalyzed reporter deposition-fluorescence in situ hybridization) and analyzed its abundance in surface samples from the MALASPINA circumnavigation expedition. Our use of a specific probe for the prymnesiophyte partner allowed us to verify that this algal species virtually always carried the UCYN-A symbiont, indicating that the association was also obligate for the host. The prymnesiophyte-UCYN-A1 symbiosis was detected in all ocean basins, displaying a patchy distribution with abundances (up to 500 cells ml(-1)) that could vary orders of magnitude. Additional vertical profiles taken at the NE Atlantic showed that this symbiosis occupied the upper water column and disappeared towards the Deep Chlorophyll Maximum, where the biomass of the prymnesiophyte assemblage peaked. Moreover, sequences of both prymnesiophyte partners were searched within a large 18S rDNA metabarcoding data set from the Tara-Oceans expedition around the world. This sequence-based analysis supported the patchy distribution of the UCYN-A1 host observed by CARD-FISH and highlighted an unexpected homogeneous distribution (at low relative abundance) of B. bigelowii in the open ocean. Our results demonstrate that partners are always in symbiosis in nature and show contrasted ecological patterns of the two related lineages.

  12. Global distribution and vertical patterns of a prymnesiophyte–cyanobacteria obligate symbiosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cabello, Ana M; Cornejo-Castillo, Francisco M; Raho, Nicolas; Blasco, Dolors; Vidal, Montserrat; Audic, Stéphane; de Vargas, Colomban; Latasa, Mikel; Acinas, Silvia G; Massana, Ramon

    2016-01-01

    A marine symbiosis has been recently discovered between prymnesiophyte species and the unicellular diazotrophic cyanobacterium UCYN-A. At least two different UCYN-A phylotypes exist, the clade UCYN-A1 in symbiosis with an uncultured small prymnesiophyte and the clade UCYN-A2 in symbiosis with the larger Braarudosphaera bigelowii. We targeted the prymnesiophyte–UCYN-A1 symbiosis by double CARD-FISH (catalyzed reporter deposition-fluorescence in situ hybridization) and analyzed its abundance in surface samples from the MALASPINA circumnavigation expedition. Our use of a specific probe for the prymnesiophyte partner allowed us to verify that this algal species virtually always carried the UCYN-A symbiont, indicating that the association was also obligate for the host. The prymnesiophyte–UCYN-A1 symbiosis was detected in all ocean basins, displaying a patchy distribution with abundances (up to 500 cells ml−1) that could vary orders of magnitude. Additional vertical profiles taken at the NE Atlantic showed that this symbiosis occupied the upper water column and disappeared towards the Deep Chlorophyll Maximum, where the biomass of the prymnesiophyte assemblage peaked. Moreover, sequences of both prymnesiophyte partners were searched within a large 18S rDNA metabarcoding data set from the Tara-Oceans expedition around the world. This sequence-based analysis supported the patchy distribution of the UCYN-A1 host observed by CARD-FISH and highlighted an unexpected homogeneous distribution (at low relative abundance) of B. bigelowii in the open ocean. Our results demonstrate that partners are always in symbiosis in nature and show contrasted ecological patterns of the two related lineages. PMID:26405830

  13. The Impact of Global Warming on Precipitation Patterns in Ilorin and the Hydrological Balance of the Awun Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayanshola, Ayanniyi; Olofintoye, Oluwatosin; Obadofin, Ebenezer

    2018-03-01

    This study presents the impact of global warming on precipitation patterns in Ilorin, Nigeria, and its implications on the hydrological balance of the Awun basin under the prevailing climate conditions. The study analyzes 39 years of rainfall and temperature data of relevant stations within the study areas. Simulated data from the Coupled Global Climate model for historical and future datasets were investigated under the A2 emission scenario. Statistical regression and a Mann-Kendall analysis were performed to determine the nature of the trends in the hydrological variables and their significance levels, while a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to estimate the water balance and derive the stream flow and yield of the Awun basin. The study revealed that while minimum and maximum temperatures in Ilorin are increasing, rainfall is generally decreasing. The assessment of the trends in the water balance parameters in the basin indicates that there is no improvement in the water yield as the population increases. This may result in major stresses to the water supply in the near future.

  14. Posttraumatic stress disorder among refugees: Measurement invariance of Harvard Trauma Questionnaire scores across global regions and response patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasmussen, Andrew; Verkuilen, Jay; Ho, Emily; Fan, Yuyu

    2015-12-01

    Despite the central role of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in international humanitarian aid work, there has been little examination of the measurement invariance of PTSD measures across culturally defined refugee subgroups. This leaves mental health workers in disaster settings with little to support inferences made using the results of standard clinical assessment tools, such as the severity of symptoms and prevalence rates. We examined measurement invariance in scores from the most widely used PTSD measure in refugee populations, the Harvard Trauma Questionnaire (HTQ; Mollica et al., 1992), in a multinational and multilingual sample of asylum seekers from 81 countries of origin in 11 global regions. Clustering HTQ responses to justify grouping regional groups by response patterns resulted in 3 groups for testing measurement invariance: West Africans, Himalayans, and all others. Comparing log-likelihood ratios showed that while configural invariance seemed to hold, metric and scalar invariance did not. These findings call into question the common practice of using standard cut-off scores on PTSD measures across culturally dissimilar refugee populations. In addition, high correlation between factors suggests that the construct validity of scores from North American and European measures of PTSD may not hold globally. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  15. Methane emission from global livestock sector during 1890-2014: Magnitude, trends and spatiotemporal patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dangal, Shree R S; Tian, Hanqin; Zhang, Bowen; Pan, Shufen; Lu, Chaoqun; Yang, Jia

    2017-10-01

    Human demand for livestock products has increased rapidly during the past few decades largely due to dietary transition and population growth, with significant impact on climate and the environment. The contribution of ruminant livestock to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions has been investigated extensively at various scales from regional to global, but the long-term trend, regional variation and drivers of methane (CH 4 ) emission remain unclear. In this study, we use Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier II guidelines to quantify the evolution of CH 4 emissions from ruminant livestock during 1890-2014. We estimate that total CH 4 emissions in 2014 was 97.1 million tonnes (MT) CH 4 or 2.72 Gigatonnes (Gt) CO 2 -eq (1 MT = 10 12 g, 1 Gt = 10 15 g) from ruminant livestock, which accounted for 47%-54% of all non-CO 2 GHG emissions from the agricultural sector. Our estimate shows that CH 4 emissions from the ruminant livestock had increased by 332% (73.6 MT CH 4 or 2.06 Gt CO 2 -eq) since the 1890s. Our results further indicate that livestock sector in drylands had 36% higher emission intensity (CH 4 emissions/km 2 ) compared to that in nondrylands in 2014, due to the combined effect of higher rate of increase in livestock population and low feed quality. We also find that the contribution of developing regions (Africa, Asia and Latin America) to the total CH 4 emissions had increased from 51.7% in the 1890s to 72.5% in the 2010s. These changes were driven by increases in livestock numbers (LU units) by up to 121% in developing regions, but decreases in livestock numbers and emission intensity (emission/km 2 ) by up to 47% and 32%, respectively, in developed regions. Our results indicate that future increases in livestock production would likely contribute to higher CH 4 emissions, unless effective strategies to mitigate GHG emissions in livestock system are implemented. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Exploring Patterns of Soil Organic Matter Decomposition with Students and the Public Through the Global Decomposition Project (GDP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, J. H.; Natali, S.

    2014-12-01

    The Global Decomposition Project (GDP) is a program designed to introduce and educate students and the general public about soil organic matter and decomposition through a standardized protocol for collecting, reporting, and sharing data. This easy-to-use hands-on activity focuses on questions such as "How do environmental conditions control decomposition of organic matter in soil?" and "Why do some areas accumulate organic matter and others do not?" Soil organic matter is important to local ecosystems because it affects soil structure, regulates soil moisture and temperature, and provides energy and nutrients to soil organisms. It is also important globally because it stores a large amount of carbon, and when microbes "eat", or decompose organic matter they release greenhouse gasses such as carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere, which affects the earth's climate. The protocol describes a commonly used method to measure decomposition using a paper made of cellulose, a component of plant cell walls. Participants can receive pre-made cellulose decomposition bags, or make decomposition bags using instructions in the protocol and easily obtained materials (e.g., window screen and lignin-free paper). Individual results will be shared with all participants and the broader public through an online database. We will present decomposition bag results from a research site in Alaskan tundra, as well as from a middle-school-student led experiment in California. The GDP demonstrates how scientific methods can be extended to educate broader audiences, while at the same time, data collected by students and the public can provide new insight into global patterns of soil decomposition. The GDP provides a pathway for scientists and educators to interact and reach meaningful education and research goals.

  17. Global Patterns in Ecological Indicators of Marine Food Webs: A Modelling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heymans, Johanna Jacomina; Coll, Marta; Libralato, Simone; Morissette, Lyne; Christensen, Villy

    2014-01-01

    , and invertebrates). Keystone groups were prevalent in estuarine or small/shallow systems, and in systems with reduced fishing pressure. Changes to the abundance of key functional groups might have significant implications for the functioning of ecosystems and should be avoided through management. Conclusion/significance Our results provide additional understanding of patterns of structural and functional indicators in different ecosystems. Ecosystem traits such as type, size, depth, and location need to be accounted for when setting reference levels as these affect absolute values of ecological indicators. Therefore, establishing absolute reference values for ecosystem indicators may not be suitable to the ecosystem-based, precautionary approach. Reference levels for ecosystem indicators should be developed for individual ecosystems or ecosystems with the same typologies (similar location, ecosystem type, etc.) and not benchmarked against all other ecosystems. PMID:24763610

  18. Global patterns in ecological indicators of marine food webs: a modelling approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johanna Jacomina Heymans

    seagrass and macroalgae, and invertebrates. Keystone groups were prevalent in estuarine or small/shallow systems, and in systems with reduced fishing pressure. Changes to the abundance of key functional groups might have significant implications for the functioning of ecosystems and should be avoided through management. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results provide additional understanding of patterns of structural and functional indicators in different ecosystems. Ecosystem traits such as type, size, depth, and location need to be accounted for when setting reference levels as these affect absolute values of ecological indicators. Therefore, establishing absolute reference values for ecosystem indicators may not be suitable to the ecosystem-based, precautionary approach. Reference levels for ecosystem indicators should be developed for individual ecosystems or ecosystems with the same typologies (similar location, ecosystem type, etc. and not benchmarked against all other ecosystems.

  19. Spread of Canine Flu

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2018-04-05

    Dr. Colin Parrish, a Professor of Virology at the College of Veterinary Medicine, Cornell University, discusses the spread of influenza among dogs.  Created: 4/5/2018 by National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (NCEZID).   Date Released: 4/5/2018.

  20. The effects of MicroRNA transfections on global patterns of gene expression in ovarian cancer cells are functionally coordinated

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shahab Shubin W

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background MicroRNAs (miRNAs are a class of small RNAs that have been linked to a number of diseases including cancer. The potential application of miRNAs in the diagnostics and therapeutics of ovarian and other cancers is an area of intense interest. A current challenge is the inability to accurately predict the functional consequences of exogenous modulations in the levels of potentially therapeutic miRNAs. Methods In an initial effort to systematically address this issue, we conducted miRNA transfection experiments using two miRNAs (miR-7, miR-128. We monitored the consequent changes in global patterns of gene expression by microarray and quantitative (real-time polymerase chain reaction. Network analysis of the expression data was used to predict the consequence of each transfection on cellular function and these predictions were experimentally tested. Results While ~20% of the changes in expression patterns of hundreds to thousands of genes could be attributed to direct miRNA-mRNA interactions, the majority of the changes are indirect, involving the downstream consequences of miRNA-mediated changes in regulatory gene expression. The changes in gene expression induced by individual miRNAs are functionally coordinated but distinct between the two miRNAs. MiR-7 transfection into ovarian cancer cells induces changes in cell adhesion and other developmental networks previously associated with epithelial-mesenchymal transitions (EMT and other processes linked with metastasis. In contrast, miR-128 transfection induces changes in cell cycle control and other processes commonly linked with cellular replication. Conclusions The functionally coordinated patterns of gene expression displayed by different families of miRNAs have the potential to provide clinicians with a strategy to treat cancers from a systems rather than a single gene perspective.

  1. Hybrid epidemic spreading - from Internet worms to HIV infection

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, C.

    2015-01-01

    Epidemic phenomena are ubiquitous, ranging from infectious diseases, computer viruses, to information dissemination. Epidemics have traditionally been studied as a single spreading process, either in a fully mixed population or on a network. Many epidemics, however, are hybrid, employing more than one spreading mechanism. For example, the Internet worm Conficker spreads locally targeting neighbouring computers in local networks as well as globally by randomly probing any computer on the Inter...

  2. Turbulent forces within river plumes affect spread

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharya, Atreyee

    2012-08-01

    When rivers drain into oceans through narrow mouths, hydraulic forces squeeze the river water into buoyant plumes that are clearly visible in satellite images. Worldwide, river plumes not only disperse freshwater, sediments, and nutrients but also spread pollutants and organisms from estuaries into the open ocean. In the United States, the Columbia River—the largest river by volume draining into the Pacific Ocean from North America—generates a plume at its mouth that transports juvenile salmon and other fish into the ocean. Clearly, the behavior and spread of river plumes, such as the Columbia River plume, affect the nation's fishing industry as well as the global economy.

  3. Combinatorics of spreads and parallelisms

    CERN Document Server

    Johnson, Norman

    2010-01-01

    Partitions of Vector Spaces Quasi-Subgeometry Partitions Finite Focal-SpreadsGeneralizing André SpreadsThe Going Up Construction for Focal-SpreadsSubgeometry Partitions Subgeometry and Quasi-Subgeometry Partitions Subgeometries from Focal-SpreadsExtended André SubgeometriesKantor's Flag-Transitive DesignsMaximal Additive Partial SpreadsSubplane Covered Nets and Baer Groups Partial Desarguesian t-Parallelisms Direct Products of Affine PlanesJha-Johnson SL(2,

  4. The landscape genetics of infectious disease emergence and spread.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biek, Roman; Real, Leslie A

    2010-09-01

    The spread of parasites is inherently a spatial process often embedded in physically complex landscapes. It is therefore not surprising that infectious disease researchers are increasingly taking a landscape genetics perspective to elucidate mechanisms underlying basic ecological processes driving infectious disease dynamics and to understand the linkage between spatially dependent population processes and the geographic distribution of genetic variation within both hosts and parasites. The increasing availability of genetic information on hosts and parasites when coupled to their ecological interactions can lead to insights for predicting patterns of disease emergence, spread and control. Here, we review research progress in this area based on four different motivations for the application of landscape genetics approaches: (i) assessing the spatial organization of genetic variation in parasites as a function of environmental variability, (ii) using host population genetic structure as a means to parameterize ecological dynamics that indirectly influence parasite populations, for example, gene flow and movement pathways across heterogeneous landscapes and the concurrent transport of infectious agents, (iii) elucidating the temporal and spatial scales of disease processes and (iv) reconstructing and understanding infectious disease invasion. Throughout this review, we emphasize that landscape genetic principles are relevant to infection dynamics across a range of scales from within host dynamics to global geographic patterns and that they can also be applied to unconventional 'landscapes' such as heterogeneous contact networks underlying the spread of human and livestock diseases. We conclude by discussing some general considerations and problems for inferring epidemiological processes from genetic data and try to identify possible future directions and applications for this rapidly expanding field.

  5. Dynamical Model about Rumor Spreading with Medium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaxia Zhao

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Rumor is a kind of social remark, that is untrue, and not be confirmed, and spreads on a large scale in a short time. Usually, it can induce a cloud of pressure, anxiety, and panic. Traditionally, it is propagated by word of mouth. Nowadays, with the emergence of the internet, rumors can be spread by instant messengers, emails, or publishing. With this new pattern of spreading, an ISRW dynamical model considering the medium as a subclass is established. Beside the dynamical analysis of the model, we mainly explore the mechanism of spreading of individuals-to-individuals and medium-to-individual. By numerical simulation, we find that if we want to control the rumor spreading, it will not only need to control the rate of change of the spreader subclass, but also need to control the change of the information about rumor in medium which has larger influence. Moreover, to control the effusion of rumor is more important than deleting existing information about rumor. On the one hand, government should enhance the management of internet. On the other hand, relevant legal institutions for punishing the rumor creator and spreader on internet who can be tracked should be established. Using this way, involved authorities can propose efficient measures to control the rumor spreading to keep the stabilization of society and development of economy.

  6. Gossip spread in social network Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansson, Tobias

    2017-04-01

    Gossip almost inevitably arises in real social networks. In this article we investigate the relationship between the number of friends of a person and limits on how far gossip about that person can spread in the network. How far gossip travels in a network depends on two sets of factors: (a) factors determining gossip transmission from one person to the next and (b) factors determining network topology. For a simple model where gossip is spread among people who know the victim it is known that a standard scale-free network model produces a non-monotonic relationship between number of friends and expected relative spread of gossip, a pattern that is also observed in real networks (Lind et al., 2007). Here, we study gossip spread in two social network models (Toivonen et al., 2006; Vázquez, 2003) by exploring the parameter space of both models and fitting them to a real Facebook data set. Both models can produce the non-monotonic relationship of real networks more accurately than a standard scale-free model while also exhibiting more realistic variability in gossip spread. Of the two models, the one given in Vázquez (2003) best captures both the expected values and variability of gossip spread.

  7. Spread spectrum image steganography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marvel, L M; Boncelet, C R; Retter, C T

    1999-01-01

    In this paper, we present a new method of digital steganography, entitled spread spectrum image steganography (SSIS). Steganography, which means "covered writing" in Greek, is the science of communicating in a hidden manner. Following a discussion of steganographic communication theory and review of existing techniques, the new method, SSIS, is introduced. This system hides and recovers a message of substantial length within digital imagery while maintaining the original image size and dynamic range. The hidden message can be recovered using appropriate keys without any knowledge of the original image. Image restoration, error-control coding, and techniques similar to spread spectrum are described, and the performance of the system is illustrated. A message embedded by this method can be in the form of text, imagery, or any other digital signal. Applications for such a data-hiding scheme include in-band captioning, covert communication, image tamperproofing, authentication, embedded control, and revision tracking.

  8. Regime-dependent determinants of Euro area sovereign CDS spreads

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Blommestein, H.J.; Eijffinger, Sylvester; Qian, Zongxin

    We study the determinants of sovereign CDS spreads of five Euro area countries (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain) after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. We find that global and/or European Monetary Union (EMU)-wide factors are the main drivers of changes in the sovereign CDS spreads in

  9. Discovering New Global Climate Patterns: Curating a 21-Year High Temporal (Hourly) and Spatial (40km) Resolution Reanalysis Dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, C. Y.; Dattore, R.; Peng, G. S.

    2014-12-01

    The National Center for Atmospheric Research's Global Climate Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation (CFDDA) Hourly 40km Reanalysis dataset is a dynamically downscaled dataset with high temporal and spatial resolution. The dataset contains three-dimensional hourly analyses in netCDF format for the global atmospheric state from 1985 to 2005 on a 40km horizontal grid (0.4°grid increment) with 28 vertical levels, providing good representation of local forcing and diurnal variation of processes in the planetary boundary layer. This project aimed to make the dataset publicly available, accessible, and usable in order to provide a unique resource to allow and promote studies of new climate characteristics. When the curation project started, it had been five years since the data files were generated. Also, although the Principal Investigator (PI) had generated a user document at the end of the project in 2009, the document had not been maintained. Furthermore, the PI had moved to a new institution, and the remaining team members were reassigned to other projects. These factors made data curation in the areas of verifying data quality, harvest metadata descriptions, documenting provenance information especially challenging. As a result, the project's curation process found that: Data curator's skill and knowledge helped make decisions, such as file format and structure and workflow documentation, that had significant, positive impact on the ease of the dataset's management and long term preservation. Use of data curation tools, such as the Data Curation Profiles Toolkit's guidelines, revealed important information for promoting the data's usability and enhancing preservation planning. Involving data curators during each stage of the data curation life cycle instead of at the end could improve the curation process' efficiency. Overall, the project showed that proper resources invested in the curation process would give datasets the best chance to fulfill their potential to

  10. Geomagnetic field, global pattern

    OpenAIRE

    Macmillan, Susan

    2011-01-01

    The geomagnetic field is generated in the fluid outer core region of the Earth by electrical currents flowing in the slowly moving molten iron. In addition to sources in the Earth’s core, the geomagnetic field observable on the Earth’s surface has sources in the crust and in the ionosphere and magnetosphere. The signal from the core dominates, accounting for over 95% of the field at the Earth’s surface. The geomagnetic field varies on a range of scales, both temporal and spatial; the...

  11. Changing Patterns of Emerging Zoonotic Diseases in Wildlife, Domestic Animals, and Humans Linked to Biodiversity Loss and Globalization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguirre, A Alonso

    2017-12-15

    The fundamental human threats to biodiversity including habitat destruction, globalization, and species loss have led to ecosystem disruptions altering infectious disease transmission patterns, the accumulation of toxic pollutants, and the invasion of alien species and pathogens. To top it all, the profound role of climate change on many ecological processes has affected the inability of many species to adapt to these relatively rapid changes. This special issue, "Zoonotic Disease Ecology: Effects on Humans, Domestic Animals and Wildlife," explores the complex interactions of emerging infectious diseases across taxa linked to many of these anthropogenic and environmental drivers. Selected emerging zoonoses including RNA viruses, Rift Valley fever, trypanosomiasis, Hanta virus infection, and other vector-borne diseases are discussed in detail. Also, coprophagous beetles are proposed as important vectors in the transmission and maintenance of infectious pathogens. An overview of the impacts of climate change in emerging disease ecology within the context of Brazil as a case study is provided. Animal Care and Use Committee requirements were investigated, concluding that ecology journals have low rates of explicit statements regarding the welfare and wellbing of wildlife during experimental studies. Most of the solutions to protect biodiversity and predicting and preventing the next epidemic in humans originating from wildlife are oriented towards the developed world and are less useful for biodiverse, low-income economies. We need the development of regional policies to address these issues at the local level.

  12. Free energy analysis of cell spreading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McEvoy, Eóin; Deshpande, Vikram S; McGarry, Patrick

    2017-10-01

    In this study we present a steady-state adaptation of the thermodynamically motivated stress fiber (SF) model of Vigliotti et al. (2015). We implement this steady-state formulation in a non-local finite element setting where we also consider global conservation of the total number of cytoskeletal proteins within the cell, global conservation of the number of binding integrins on the cell membrane, and adhesion limiting ligand density on the substrate surface. We present a number of simulations of cell spreading in which we consider a limited subset of the possible deformed spread-states assumed by the cell in order to examine the hypothesis that free energy minimization drives the process of cell spreading. Simulations suggest that cell spreading can be viewed as a competition between (i) decreasing cytoskeletal free energy due to strain induced assembly of cytoskeletal proteins into contractile SFs, and (ii) increasing elastic free energy due to stretching of the mechanically passive components of the cell. The computed minimum free energy spread area is shown to be lower for a cell on a compliant substrate than on a rigid substrate. Furthermore, a low substrate ligand density is found to limit cell spreading. The predicted dependence of cell spread area on substrate stiffness and ligand density is in agreement with the experiments of Engler et al. (2003). We also simulate the experiments of Théry et al. (2006), whereby initially circular cells deform and adhere to "V-shaped" and "Y-shaped" ligand patches. Analysis of a number of different spread states reveals that deformed configurations with the lowest free energy exhibit a SF distribution that corresponds to experimental observations, i.e. a high concentration of highly aligned SFs occurs along free edges, with lower SF concentrations in the interior of the cell. In summary, the results of this study suggest that cell spreading is driven by free energy minimization based on a competition between decreasing

  13. Spreading convulsions, spreading depolarization and epileptogenesis in human cerebral cortex

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dreier, Jens P; Major, Sebastian; Pannek, Heinz-Wolfgang

    2012-01-01

    Spreading depolarization of cells in cerebral grey matter is characterized by massive ion translocation, neuronal swelling and large changes in direct current-coupled voltage recording. The near-complete sustained depolarization above the inactivation threshold for action potential generating...... stimulations. Eventually, epileptic field potentials were recorded during the period that had originally seen spreading depression of activity. Such spreading convulsions are characterized by epileptic field potentials on the final shoulder of the large slow potential change of spreading depolarization. We...

  14. Estimation of wave directional spreading

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Deo, M.C.; Gondane, D.S.; SanilKumar, V.

    One of the useful measures of waves directional spreading at a given location is the directional spreading parameter. This paper presents a new approach to arrive at its characteristic value using the computational technique of Artificial Neural...

  15. Social networks and spreading of epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trimper, Steffen; Zheng, Dafang; Brandau, Marian

    2004-05-01

    Epidemiological processes are studied within a recently proposed social network model using the susceptible-infected-refractory dynamics (SIR) of an epidemic. Within the network model, a population of individuals may be characterized by H independent hierarchies or dimensions, each of which consists of groupings of individuals into layers of subgroups. Detailed numerical simulations reveals that for H > 1, the global spreading results regardless of the degree of homophily α of the individuals forming a social circle. For H = 1, a transition from a global to a local spread occurs as the population becomes decomposed into increasingly homophilous groups. Multiple dimensions in classifying individuals (nodes) thus make a society (computer network) highly susceptible to large scale outbreaks of infectious diseases (viruses). The SIR-model can be extended by the inclusion of waiting times resulting in modified distribution function of the recovered.

  16. Spatio-Temporal Patterns and Climate Variables Controlling of Biomass Carbon Stock of Global Grassland Ecosystems from 1982 to 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiangzhou Xia

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Grassland ecosystems play an important role in subsistence agriculture and the global carbon cycle. However, the global spatio-temporal patterns and environmental controls of grassland biomass are not well quantified and understood. The goal of this study was to estimate the spatial and temporal patterns of the global grassland biomass and analyze their driving forces using field measurements, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI time series from satellite data, climate reanalysis data, and a satellite-based statistical model. Results showed that the NDVI-based biomass carbon model developed from this study explained 60% of the variance across 38 sites globally. The global carbon stock in grassland aboveground live biomass was 1.05 Pg·C, averaged from 1982 to 2006, and increased at a rate of 2.43 Tg·C·y−1 during this period. Temporal change of the global biomass was significantly and positively correlated with temperature and precipitation. The distribution of biomass carbon density followed the precipitation gradient. The dynamics of regional grassland biomass showed various trends largely determined by regional climate variability, disturbances, and management practices (such as grazing for meat production. The methods and results from this study can be used to monitor the dynamics of grassland aboveground biomass and evaluate grassland susceptibility to climate variability and change, disturbances, and management.

  17. Illusory spreading of watercolor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devinck, Frédéric; Hardy, Joseph L; Delahunt, Peter B; Spillmann, Lothar; Werner, John S

    2006-05-04

    The watercolor effect (WCE) is a phenomenon of long-range color assimilation occurring when a dark chromatic contour delineating a figure is flanked on the inside by a brighter chromatic contour; the brighter color spreads into the entire enclosed area. Here, we determined the optimal chromatic parameters and the cone signals supporting the WCE. To that end, we quantified the effect of color assimilation using hue cancellation as a function of hue, colorimetric purity, and cone modulation of inducing contours. When the inner and outer contours had chromaticities that were in opposite directions in color space, a stronger WCE was obtained as compared with other color directions. Additionally, equal colorimetric purity between the outer and inner contours was necessary to obtain a large effect compared with conditions in which the contours differed in colorimetric purity. However, there was no further increase in the magnitude of the effect when the colorimetric purity increased beyond a value corresponding to an equal vector length between the inner and outer contours. Finally, L-M-cone-modulated WCE was perceptually stronger than S-cone-modulated WCE for our conditions. This last result demonstrates that both L-M-cone and S-cone pathways are important for watercolor spreading. Our data suggest that the WCE depends critically upon the particular spatiochromatic arrangement in the display, with the relative chromatic contrast between the inducing contours being particularly important.

  18. Hybrid spread spectrum radio system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Stephen F [London, TN; Dress, William B [Camas, WA

    2010-02-09

    Systems and methods are described for hybrid spread spectrum radio systems. A method, includes receiving a hybrid spread spectrum signal including: fast frequency hopping demodulating and direct sequence demodulating a direct sequence spread spectrum signal, wherein multiple frequency hops occur within a single data-bit time and each bit is represented by chip transmissions at multiple frequencies.

  19. Global patterns and environmental controls of perchlorate and nitrate co-occurrence in arid and semi-arid environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, W Andrew; Böhlke, John Karl; Andraski, Brian J.; Fahlquist, Lynne S.; Bexfield, Laura M.; Eckardt, Frank D.; Gates, John B.; Davila, Alfonso F.; McKay, Christopher P.; Rao, Balaji; Sevanthi, Ritesh; Rajagopalan, Srinath; Estrada, Nubia; Sturchio, Neil C.; Hatzinger, Paul B.; Anderson, Todd A.; Orris, Greta J.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Stonestrom, David A.; Latorre, Claudio; Li, Yanhe; Harvey, Gregory J.

    2015-01-01

    Natural perchlorate (ClO4−) is of increasing interest due to its wide-spread occurrence on Earth and Mars, yet little information exists on the relative abundance of ClO4− compared to other major anions, its stability, or long-term variations in production that may impact the observed distributions. Our objectives were to evaluate the occurrence and fate of ClO4− in groundwater and soils/caliche in arid and semi-arid environments (southwestern United States, southern Africa, United Arab Emirates, China, Antarctica, and Chile) and the relationship of ClO4− to the more well-studied atmospherically deposited anions NO3−and Cl− as a means to understand the prevalent processes that affect the accumulation of these species over various time scales. ClO4− is globally distributed in soil and groundwater in arid and semi-arid regions on Earth at concentrations ranging from 10−1to 106 μg/kg. Generally, the ClO4− concentration in these regions increases with aridity index, but also depends on the duration of arid conditions. In many arid and semi-arid areas, NO3− and ClO4− co-occur at molar ratios (NO3−/ClO4−) that vary between ∼104and 105. We hypothesize that atmospheric deposition ratios are largely preserved in hyper-arid areas that support little or no biological activity (e.g. plants or bacteria), but can be altered in areas with more active biological processes including N2 fixation, N mineralization, nitrification, denitrification, and microbial ClO4− reduction, as indicated in part by NO3− isotope data. In contrast, much larger ranges of Cl−/ClO4− and Cl−/NO3−ratios indicate Cl− varies independently from both ClO4− and NO3−. The general lack of correlation between Cl− and ClO4− or NO3− implies that Cl− is not a good indicator of co-deposition and should be used with care when interpreting oxyanion cycling in arid systems. The Atacama Desert appears to be unique compared to all other terrestrial locations having a

  20. Global patterns and environmental controls of perchlorate and nitrate co-occurrence in arid and semi-arid environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, W. Andrew; Böhlke, J. K.; Andraski, Brian J.; Fahlquist, Lynne; Bexfield, Laura; Eckardt, Frank D.; Gates, John B.; Davila, Alfonso F.; McKay, Christopher P.; Rao, Balaji; Sevanthi, Ritesh; Rajagopalan, Srinath; Estrada, Nubia; Sturchio, Neil; Hatzinger, Paul B.; Anderson, Todd A.; Orris, Greta; Betancourt, Julio; Stonestrom, David; Latorre, Claudio; Li, Yanhe; Harvey, Gregory J.

    2015-09-01

    Natural perchlorate (ClO4-) is of increasing interest due to its wide-spread occurrence on Earth and Mars, yet little information exists on the relative abundance of ClO4- compared to other major anions, its stability, or long-term variations in production that may impact the observed distributions. Our objectives were to evaluate the occurrence and fate of ClO4- in groundwater and soils/caliche in arid and semi-arid environments (southwestern United States, southern Africa, United Arab Emirates, China, Antarctica, and Chile) and the relationship of ClO4- to the more well-studied atmospherically deposited anions NO3- and Cl- as a means to understand the prevalent processes that affect the accumulation of these species over various time scales. ClO4- is globally distributed in soil and groundwater in arid and semi-arid regions on Earth at concentrations ranging from 10-1 to 106 μg/kg. Generally, the ClO4- concentration in these regions increases with aridity index, but also depends on the duration of arid conditions. In many arid and semi-arid areas, NO3- and ClO4- co-occur at molar ratios (NO3-/ClO4-) that vary between ∼104 and 105. We hypothesize that atmospheric deposition ratios are largely preserved in hyper-arid areas that support little or no biological activity (e.g. plants or bacteria), but can be altered in areas with more active biological processes including N2 fixation, N mineralization, nitrification, denitrification, and microbial ClO4- reduction, as indicated in part by NO3- isotope data. In contrast, much larger ranges of Cl-/ClO4- and Cl-/NO3- ratios indicate Cl- varies independently from both ClO4- and NO3-. The general lack of correlation between Cl- and ClO4- or NO3- implies that Cl- is not a good indicator of co-deposition and should be used with care when interpreting oxyanion cycling in arid systems. The Atacama Desert appears to be unique compared to all other terrestrial locations having a NO3-/ClO4- molar ratio ∼103. The relative

  1. Comparison of global positioning system (GPS) tracking and parent-report diaries to characterize children's time-location patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elgethun, Kai; Yost, Michael G; Fitzpatrick, Cole T E; Nyerges, Timothy L; Fenske, Richard A

    2007-03-01

    Respondent error, low resolution, and study participant burden are known limitations of diary timelines used in exposure studies such as the National Human Exposure Assessment Survey (NHEXAS). Recent advances in global positioning system (GPS) technology have produced tracking devices sufficiently portable, functional and affordable to utilize in exposure assessment science. In this study, a differentially corrected GPS (dGPS) tracking device was compared to the NHEXAS diary timeline. The study also explored how GPS can be used to evaluate and improve such diary timelines by determining which location categories and which respondents are least likely to record "correct" time-location responses. A total of 31 children ages 3-5 years old wore a dGPS device for all waking hours on a weekend day while their parents completed the NHEXAS diary timeline to document the child's time-location pattern. Parents misclassified child time-location approximately 48% of the time using the NHEXAS timeline in comparison to dGPS. Overall concordance between methods was marginal (kappa=0.33-0.35). The dGPS device found that on average, children spent 76% of the 24-h study period in the home. The diary underestimated time the child spent in the home by 17%, while overestimating time spent inside other locations, outside at home, outside in other locations, and time spent in transit. Diary data for time spent outside at home and time in transit had the lowest response concordance with dGPS. The diaries of stay-at-home mothers and mothers working unskilled labor jobs had lower concordance with dGPS than did those of the other participants. The ability of dGPS tracking to collect continuous rather than categorical (ordinal) data was also demonstrated. It is concluded that automated GPS tracking measurements can improve the quality and collection efficiency of time-location data in exposure assessment studies, albeit for small cohorts.

  2. Phase Transitions of an Epidemic Spreading Model in Small-World Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hua, Da-Yin; Gao, Ke

    2011-06-01

    We propose a modified susceptible-infected-refractory-susceptible (SIRS) model to investigate the global oscillations of the epidemic spreading in Watts—Strogatz (WS) small-world networks. It is found that when an individual immunity does not change or decays slowly in an immune period, the system can exhibit complex transition from an infecting stationary state to a large amplitude sustained oscillation or an absorbing state with no infection. When the immunity decays rapidly in the immune period, the transition to the global oscillation disappears and there is no oscillation. Furthermore, based on the spatio-temporal evolution patterns and the phase diagram, it is disclosed that a long immunity period takes an important role in the emergence of the global oscillation in small-world networks.

  3. Reliability and Efficiency of Generalized Rumor Spreading Model on Complex Social Networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naimi, Yaghoob; Naimi, Mohammad

    2013-01-01

    We introduce the generalized rumor spreading model and investigate some properties of this model on different complex social networks. Despite pervious rumor models that both the spreader-spreader (SS) and the spreader-stifler (SR) interactions have the same rate α, we define α (1) and α (2) for SS and SR interactions, respectively. The effect of variation of α (1) and α (2) on the final density of stiflers is investigated. Furthermore, the influence of the topological structure of the network in rumor spreading is studied by analyzing the behavior of several global parameters such as reliability and efficiency. Our results show that while networks with homogeneous connectivity patterns reach a higher reliability, scale-free topologies need a less time to reach a steady state with respect the rumor. (interdisciplinary physics and related areas of science and technology)

  4. A Holocene temperature reconstruction from northern New Zealand: a test of North Atlantic Holocene climate patterns as a global template

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Bos, Valerie; Rees, Andrew; Newnham, Rewi; Augustinus, Paul

    2017-04-01

    Holocene climate variability has been well defined in the North Atlantic (Walker et al., 2012), but the global extent of this climate change stratigraphy is debatable. If the North Atlantic serves as a global template for Holocene climate, then New Zealand (NZ) is ideally positioned to test this assertion, as it is distal from the northern drivers. Additionally, it is one of the few landmasses in the Southern Hemisphere that is influenced by both sub-tropical and extra-tropical climatic regimes, which may be more important controls in the southern mid-latitudes. Although much work has been done to characterise the Holocene in NZ using pollen, most of these records lack the resolution or sensitivity to determine whether abrupt or short-lived events occurred. The NZ-INTIMATE climate event stratigraphy lacks a type section for the Holocene (Alloway et al., 2007). Records from northern NZ typically show little change, other than a possible early Holocene warming. Here, we present a combined pollen and chironomid temperature reconstruction from Lake Pupuke (northern NZ), the first of its kind in NZ that covers the entire Holocene. By comparing mean annual temperatures reconstructed from fossil pollen and mean summer temperatures inferred from chironomid remains, we can assess changes in seasonality. Mean summer temperature was reconstructed from the chironomid record using a weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS) model (n comp = 2, r2booth = 0.77, RMSEP = 1.4°C) developed from an expanded version of Dieffenbacher-Krall et al. (2007)'s chironomid training set. Preliminary results show evidence for cool summers during the early Holocene as well as around the period of the Little Ice Age as defined in the North Atlantic region. These and other climate patterns determined from the Pupuke chironomid and pollen records will be compared with other evidence from northern New Zealand and with the North Atlantic record of Holocene climate variability. References

  5. Red brome (Bromus rubens subsp. madritensis) in North America: Possible modes for early introductions, subsequent spread

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salo, L.F.

    2005-01-01

    Although invasions by exotic plants have increased dramatically as human travel and commerce have increased, few have been comprehensively described. Understanding the patterns of invasive species spread over space and time will help guide management activities and policy. Tracing the earliest appearances of an exotic plant reveals likely sites of introduction, paving the way for genetic studies to quantify founder events and identify potential source populations. Red brome (Bromus madritensis subsp. rubens) is a Mediterranean winter annual grass that has invaded even relatively undisturbed areas of western North America, where it threatens native plant communities. This study used herbarium records and contemporary published accounts to trace the early introductions and subsequent spread of red brome in western North America. The results challenge the most frequently cited sources describing the early history of this grass and suggest three possible modes for early introductions: the California Gold Rush and Central Valley wheat, southern California shipping, and northern California sheep. Subsequent periods of most rapid spread into new areas, from 1930 to 1942, and of greatest spread into new regions, during the past 50 years, coincide with warm Pacific Decadal Oscillation regimes, which are linked to increased winter precipitation in the southwestern USA and northern Mexico. Global environmental change, including increased atmospheric CO2 levels and N deposition, may be contributing to the success of red brome, relative to native species.

  6. Spreading of rock avalanches

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kamis, A.S.; Savage, S.G. [McGill Univ., Dept. of Civil Engineering, Montreal, Quebec (Canada)

    1985-07-01

    Landslides and rockfalls that initiate on a steep slope eventually come to rest after flowing for some runout distance on a flat. Rockfalls of very large masses have been observed to exhibit unexpectedly long runout distances. This problem becomes more significant as the development of resources in mountain regions becomes more intensive. As early as 1881, Albert Heim observed and described the Elm rockfall of Switzerland (quoted by as HsU). This rockfall produced a debris which moved more than 2 Km along a nearly horizontal valley floor and one of its branches surged up the side of the valley to a height of 100 m. From the deposit of the Elm and the eyewitnesses Heim concluded that the debris behaved as a flowing fluid rather than sliding solids. Davies, among others, suggested that the excessive runout distance is volume dependent and the larger the volume of the debris, the longer the relative travel distance. A summary of the numerous hypotheses which have been proposed to explain this puzzling phenomena were also presented by Davies. However, none of these have been completely satisfactory or generally accepted. A simple model of the flow and spreading of a finite mass of cohesionless granular material down incline has been developed as a part of the present preliminary investigation into the mechanics of rockfalls. (author)

  7. Spread of edema with brain tumors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hosoya, Takaaki

    1987-01-01

    Cerebral edema associated with brain tumors is visualized on CT as a hypodensity lesion involving mainly the white matter. The detailed features of its evolution were investigated in a review of CT examinations performed on 56 patients with brain tumors, with the following results. 1. The susceptibility to edema varied according to the types of fibers. Association fibers were more sensitive to edema than projection and commissural fibers. 2. The edema had a characteristic of spreading along not only the association fibers but also the projection and commissural fibers. 3. The spread of edema along the association fibers was interupted in sites of convergence of the fibers such as the external capsule and just beneath the central sulcus in the certrum semiovale. 4. In some cases with intra-axial tumors, the edema extended mainly in the projection and commissural fibers considered to be more resistant to it. For example, in cases with parietal and temporal intra-axial tumors, the posterior limb of the internal capsule was often more edematous than the external capsule. 5. The edema associated with meningioma had a characteristic of spreading mainly along the association fibers. When situated close to the corpus callosum, however, the commissural fibers were also involved. Edema extending mainly in the internal capsule, thus, was rarely observed in meningioma. 6. There was unique pattern of spread of edema in frontal tumors, which differentiated their CT pattern. Therefore, the location of the tumor could be correctly diagnosed by the pattern of the edema extension, even near the central sulcus or in the operculum region. (author)

  8. Spreading Depression, Spreading Depolarizations, and the Cerebral Vasculature

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ayata, Cenk; Lauritzen, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Spreading depression (SD) is a transient wave of near-complete neuronal and glial depolarization associated with massive transmembrane ionic and water shifts. It is evolutionarily conserved in the central nervous systems of a wide variety of species from locust to human. The depolarization spreads...

  9. Characterization of spatio-temporal patterns for various GRACE- and GLDAS-born estimates for changes of global terrestrial water storage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Tao; Wang, Chao; Yu, Zhongbo; Xu, Feng

    2013-10-01

    Since the launch in March 2002, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission has provided us with a new method to estimate terrestrial water storage (TWS) variations by measuring earth gravity change with unprecedented accuracy. Thus far, a number of standardized GRACE-born TWS products are published by different international research teams. However, no characterization of spatio-temporal patterns for different GRACE hydrology products from the global perspective could be found. It is still a big challenge for the science community to identify the reliable global measurement of TWS anomalies due to our limited knowledge on the true value. Hence, it is urgently necessary to evaluate the uncertainty for various global estimates of the GRACE-born TWS changes by a number of international research organizations. Toward this end, this article presents an in-depth analysis for various GRACE-born and GLDAS-based estimates for changes of global terrestrial water storage. The work characterizes the inter-annual and intra-annual variability, probability density variations, and spatial patterns among different GRACE-born TWS estimates over six major continents, and compares them with results from GLDAS simulations. The underlying causes of inconsistency between GRACE- and GLDAS-born TWS estimates are thoroughly analyzed with an aim to improve our current knowledge in monitoring global TWS change. With a comprehensive consideration of the advantages and disadvantages among GRACE- and GLDAS-born TWS anomalies, a summary is thereafter recommended as a rapid reference for scientists, end-users, and policy-makers in the practices of global TWS change research. To our best knowledge, this work is the first attempt to characterize difference and uncertainty among various GRACE-born terrestrial water storage changes over the major continents estimated by a number of international research organizations. The results can provide beneficial reference to usage of

  10. Exploring bounty and spread

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Rasmus Rex

    2018-01-01

    indications of the consequences of this shift. The article builds on existing research in the cultural industries and 'the industrial information economy' (Benkler 2006) and seeks to provide knowledge on the im- pact of music streaming on the Danish market for recorded music. Central to this topic are new......This article analyses the structural effects of the transition from the sale of music in physical and digital form to the access-based business model of music streaming. The global music streaming market is currently maturing rapidly, and as early adap- tors, the Nordic countries provide early...

  11. Scale-free correlations in the geographical spreading of obesity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallos, Lazaros; Barttfeld, Pablo; Havlin, Shlomo; Sigman, Mariano; Makse, Hernan

    2012-02-01

    Obesity levels have been universally increasing. A crucial problem is to determine the influence of global and local drivers behind the obesity epidemic, to properly guide effective policies. Despite the numerous factors that affect the obesity evolution, we show a remarkable regularity expressed in a predictable pattern of spatial long-range correlations in the geographical spreading of obesity. We study the spatial clustering of obesity and a number of related health and economic indicators, and we use statistical physics methods to characterize the growth of the resulting clusters. The resulting scaling exponents allow us to broadly classify these indicators into two separate universality classes, weakly or strongly correlated. Weak correlations are found in generic human activity such as population distribution and the growth of the whole economy. Strong correlations are recovered, among others, for obesity, diabetes, and the food industry sectors associated with food consumption. Obesity turns out to be a global problem where local details are of little importance. The long-range correlations suggest influence that extends to large scales, hinting that the physical model of obesity clustering can be mapped to a long-range correlated percolation process.

  12. Epigenetic factors in cancer risk: effect of chemical carcinogens on global DNA methylation pattern in human TK6 cells.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali M Tabish

    Full Text Available In the current study, we assessed the global DNA methylation changes in human lymphoblastoid (TK6 cells in vitro in response to 5 direct and 10 indirect-acting genotoxic agents. TK6 cells were exposed to the selected agents for 24 h in the presence and/or absence of S9 metabolic mix. Liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry was used for quantitative profiling of 5-methyl-2'-deoxycytidine. The effect of exposure on 5-methyl-2'-deoxycytidine between control and exposed cultures was assessed by applying the marginal model with correlated residuals on % global DNA methylation data. We reported the induction of global DNA hypomethylation in TK6 cells in response to S9 metabolic mix, under the current experimental settings. Benzene, hydroquinone, styrene, carbon tetrachloride and trichloroethylene induced global DNA hypomethylation in TK6 cells. Furthermore, we showed that dose did not have an effect on global DNA methylation in TK6 cells. In conclusion we report changes in global DNA methylation as an early event in response to agents traditionally considered as genotoxic.

  13. Heat transfer and fire spread

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hal E. Anderson

    1969-01-01

    Experimental testing of a mathematical model showed that radiant heat transfer accounted for no more than 40% of total heat flux required to maintain rate of spread. A reasonable prediction of spread was possible by assuming a horizontal convective heat transfer coefficient when certain fuel and flame characteristics were known. Fuel particle size had a linear relation...

  14. Epidemic cholera spreads like wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Manojit; Zinck, Richard D.; Bouma, Menno J.; Pascual, Mercedes

    2014-01-01

    Cholera is on the rise globally, especially epidemic cholera which is characterized by intermittent and unpredictable outbreaks that punctuate periods of regional disease fade-out. These epidemic dynamics remain however poorly understood. Here we examine records for epidemic cholera over both contemporary and historical timelines, from Africa (1990-2006) and former British India (1882-1939). We find that the frequency distribution of outbreak size is fat-tailed, scaling approximately as a power-law. This pattern which shows strong parallels with wildfires is incompatible with existing cholera models developed for endemic regions, as it implies a fundamental role for stochastic transmission and local depletion of susceptible hosts. Application of a recently developed forest-fire model indicates that epidemic cholera dynamics are located above a critical phase transition and propagate in similar ways to aggressive wildfires. These findings have implications for the effectiveness of control measures and the mechanisms that ultimately limit the size of outbreaks.

  15. GENERAL: Epidemic spreading on networks with vaccination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Hong-Jing; Duan, Zhi-Sheng; Chen, Guan-Rong; Li, Rong

    2009-08-01

    In this paper, a new susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model on complex networks with imperfect vaccination is proposed. Two types of epidemic spreading patterns (the recovered individuals have or have not immunity) on scale-free networks are discussed. Both theoretical and numerical analyses are presented. The epidemic thresholds related to the vaccination rate, the vaccination-invalid rate and the vaccination success rate on scale-free networks are demonstrated, showing different results from the reported observations. This reveals that whether or not the epidemic can spread over a network under vaccination control is determined not only by the network structure but also by the medicine's effective duration. Moreover, for a given infective rate, the proportion of individuals to vaccinate can be calculated theoretically for the case that the recovered nodes have immunity. Finally, simulated results are presented to show how to control the disease prevalence.

  16. Economic diversification: Explaining the pattern of diversification in the global economy and its implications for fostering diversification in poorer countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Freire Junior, Clovis

    2017-01-01

    Economic diversification is very relevant for poorer developing countries to create jobs and foster economic development. That need has been recognised in key internationally agreed development goals. The empirical economic literature has identified several stylised facts about the pattern of

  17. Epidemic spread in bipartite network by considering risk awareness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, She; Sun, Mei; Ampimah, Benjamin Chris; Han, Dun

    2018-02-01

    Human awareness plays an important role in the spread of infectious diseases and the control of propagation patterns. Exploring the interplay between human awareness and epidemic spreading is a topic that has been receiving increasing attention. Considering the fact, some well-known diseases only spread between different species we propose a theoretical analysis of the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic spread from the perspective of bipartite network and risk aversion. Using mean field theory, the epidemic threshold is calculated theoretically. Simulation results are consistent with the proposed analytic model. The results show that, the final infection density is negative linear with the value of individuals' risk awareness. Therefore, the epidemic spread could be effectively suppressed by improving individuals' risk awareness.

  18. On entanglement spreading from holography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mezei, Márk [Princeton Center for Theoretical Science, Princeton University,Princeton, NJ 08544 (United States)

    2017-05-11

    A global quench is an interesting setting where we can study thermalization of subsystems in a pure state. We investigate entanglement entropy (EE) growth in global quenches in holographic field theories and relate some of its aspects to quantities characterizing chaos. More specifically we obtain four key results: We prove holographic bounds on the entanglement velocity v{sub E} and the butterfly effect speed v{sub B} that arises in the study of chaos. We obtain the EE as a function of time for large spherical entangling surfaces analytically. We show that the EE is insensitive to the details of the initial state or quench protocol. In a thermofield double state we determine analytically the two-sided mutual information between two large concentric spheres separated in time. We derive a bound on the rate of growth of EE for arbitrary shapes, and develop an expansion for EE at early times. In a companion paper https://arxiv.org/abs/1608.05101, these results are put in the broader context of EE growth in chaotic systems: we relate EE growth to the chaotic spreading of operators, derive bounds on EE at a given time, and compare the holographic results to spin chain numerics and toy models. In this paper, we perform holographic calculations that provide the basis of arguments presented in that paper. We prove holographic bounds on the entanglement velocity v{sub E} and the butterfly effect speed v{sub B} that arises in the study of chaos. We obtain the EE as a function of time for large spherical entangling surfaces analytically. We show that the EE is insensitive to the details of the initial state or quench protocol. In a thermofield double state we determine analytically the two-sided mutual information between two large concentric spheres separated in time. We derive a bound on the rate of growth of EE for arbitrary shapes, and develop an expansion for EE at early times.

  19. How Choice of Depth Horizon Influences the Estimated Spatial Patterns and Global Magnitude of Ocean Carbon Export Flux

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palevsky, Hilary I.; Doney, Scott C.

    2018-05-01

    Estimated rates and efficiency of ocean carbon export flux are sensitive to differences in the depth horizons used to define export, which often vary across methodological approaches. We evaluate sinking particulate organic carbon (POC) flux rates and efficiency (e-ratios) in a global earth system model, using a range of commonly used depth horizons: the seasonal mixed layer depth, the particle compensation depth, the base of the euphotic zone, a fixed depth horizon of 100 m, and the maximum annual mixed layer depth. Within this single dynamically consistent model framework, global POC flux rates vary by 30% and global e-ratios by 21% across different depth horizon choices. Zonal variability in POC flux and e-ratio also depends on the export depth horizon due to pronounced influence of deep winter mixing in subpolar regions. Efforts to reconcile conflicting estimates of export need to account for these systematic discrepancies created by differing depth horizon choices.

  20. Pattern of NDVI-based vegetation greening along an altitudinal gradient in the eastern Himalayas and its response to global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Haidong; Jiang, Jiang; Chen, Bin; Li, Yingkui; Xu, Yuyue; Shen, Weishou

    2016-03-01

    The eastern Himalayas, especially the Yarlung Zangbo Grand Canyon Nature Reserve (YNR), is a global hotspot of biodiversity because of a wide variety of climatic conditions and elevations ranging from 500 to > 7000 m above sea level (a.s.l.). The mountain ecosystems at different elevations are vulnerable to climate change; however, there has been little research into the patterns of vegetation greening and their response to global warming. The objective of this paper is to examine the pattern of vegetation greening in different altitudinal zones in the YNR and its relationship with vegetation types and climatic factors. Specifically, the inter-annual change of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and its variation along altitudinal gradient between 1999 and 2013 was investigated using SPOT-VGT NDVI data and ASTER global digital elevation model (GDEM) data. We found that annual NDVI increased by 17.58% in the YNR from 1999 to 2013, especially in regions dominated by broad-leaved and coniferous forests at lower elevations. The vegetation greening rate decreased significantly as elevation increased, with a threshold elevation of approximately 3000 m. Rising temperature played a dominant role in driving the increase in NDVI, while precipitation has no statistical relationship with changes in NDVI in this region. This study provides useful information to develop an integrated management and conservation plan for climate change adaptation and promote biodiversity conservation in the YNR.

  1. Global patterns and impacts of El Niño events on coral reefs: A meta-analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Claar, Danielle C.; Szostek, Lisa; McDevitt-Irwin, Jamie M.; Schanze, Julian J.; Baum, Julia K.

    2018-01-01

    Impacts of global climate change on coral reefs are being amplified by pulse heat stress events, including El Niño, the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Despite reports of extensive coral bleaching and up to 97% coral mortality induced by El Niño events, a quantitative synthesis of the nature, intensity, and drivers of El Niño and La Niña impacts on corals is lacking. Herein, we first present a global meta-analysis of studies quantifying the effects of El Niño/La Niña-wa...

  2. Physical Proximity and Spreading in Dynamic Social Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Stopczynski, Arkadiusz; Pentland, Alex Sandy; Lehmann, Sune

    2015-01-01

    Most infectious diseases spread on a dynamic network of human interactions. Recent studies of social dynamics have provided evidence that spreading patterns may depend strongly on detailed micro-dynamics of the social system. We have recorded every single interaction within a large population, mapping out---for the first time at scale---the complete proximity network for a densely-connected system. Here we show the striking impact of interaction-distance on the network structure and dynamics ...

  3. Effects of early focal brain injury on memory for visuospatial patterns: selective deficits of global-local processing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stiles, Joan; Stern, Catherine; Appelbaum, Mark; Nass, Ruth; Trauner, Doris; Hesselink, John

    2008-01-01

    Selective deficits in visuospatial processing are present early in development among children with perinatal focal brain lesions (PL). Children with right hemisphere PL (RPL) are impaired in configural processing, while children with left hemisphere PL (LPL) are impaired in featural processing. Deficits associated with LPL are less pervasive than those observed with RPL, but this difference may reflect the structure of the tasks used for assessment. Many of the tasks used to date may place greater demands on configural processing, thus highlighting this deficit in the RPL group. This study employed a task designed to place comparable demands on configural and featural processing, providing the opportunity to obtain within-task evidence of differential deficit. Sixty-two 5- to 14-year-old children (19 RPL, 19 LPL, and 24 matched controls) reproduced from memory a series of hierarchical forms (large forms composed of small forms). Global- and local-level reproduction accuracy was scored. Controls were equally accurate on global- and local-level reproduction. Children with RPL were selectively impaired on global accuracy, and children with LPL on local accuracy, thus documenting a double dissociation in global-local processing.

  4. Do economic globalization and industry growth destabilize careers? An analysis of career complexity and career patterns over time

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Biemann, T.; Fasang, A.E.; Grunow, D.

    2011-01-01

    We analyze the impact of economic globalization and industry growth on the complexity of early work careers in Germany. We conceptualize complexity as the absolute number of employer changes, the regularity in the order of job changes, and the variability of the durations spent in different

  5. A lattice model for influenza spreading.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonella Liccardo

    Full Text Available We construct a stochastic SIR model for influenza spreading on a D-dimensional lattice, which represents the dynamic contact network of individuals. An age distributed population is placed on the lattice and moves on it. The displacement from a site to a nearest neighbor empty site, allows individuals to change the number and identities of their contacts. The dynamics on the lattice is governed by an attractive interaction between individuals belonging to the same age-class. The parameters, which regulate the pattern dynamics, are fixed fitting the data on the age-dependent daily contact numbers, furnished by the Polymod survey. A simple SIR transmission model with a nearest neighbors interaction and some very basic adaptive mobility restrictions complete the model. The model is validated against the age-distributed Italian epidemiological data for the influenza A(H1N1 during the [Formula: see text] season, with sensible predictions for the epidemiological parameters. For an appropriate topology of the lattice, we find that, whenever the accordance between the contact patterns of the model and the Polymod data is satisfactory, there is a good agreement between the numerical and the experimental epidemiological data. This result shows how rich is the information encoded in the average contact patterns of individuals, with respect to the analysis of the epidemic spreading of an infectious disease.

  6. Regional pattern and interannual variations in global terrestrial carbon uptake in response to changes in climate and atmospheric CO2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cao, Mingkui; Tao, B.; Li, Kerang; Prince, Stephen D.; Small, J.

    2005-01-01

    Atmospheric measurements indicate that the terrestrial carbon sink increased substantially from the 1980s to the 1990s, but which factors and regions were responsible for the increase are not well identified yet. Using process- and remote sensing-based ecosystem models, we show that changes in climate and atmospheric CO 2 in the period 1981-2000 enhanced net ecosystem production (NEP) and caused major geographical changes in the global distribution of NEP. In the 1980s the Americas accounted for almost all of the global NEP, but in the 1990s NEP in Eurasia and Africa became higher than that of the Americas. The year-to-year variation in global NEP was up to 2.5 Pg C (1 Pg = 10 15 g), in which 1.4 Pg C was attributable to the El Nino Southern Oscillation cycle (ENSO). NEP clearly decreased in El Nino and increased in La Nina in South America and Africa, but the response in North America and Eurasia was mixed. The estimated NEP increases accounted for only 30% of the global terrestrial carbon sink but can explain almost all of the increase from the 1980s to the 1990s. Because a large part of the increase in NEP was driven by the long-term trend of climate and atmospheric CO 2 , the increase in the global terrestrial carbon sink from the 1980s to the 1990s was a continuation of the trend since the middle of the twentieth century, rather than merely a consequence of short-time climate variability

  7. The impact of awareness on epidemic spreading in networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qingchu; Fu, Xinchu; Small, Michael; Xu, Xin-Jian

    2012-03-01

    We explore the impact of awareness on epidemic spreading through a population represented by a scale-free network. Using a network mean-field approach, a mathematical model for epidemic spreading with awareness reactions is proposed and analyzed. We focus on the role of three forms of awareness including local, global, and contact awareness. By theoretical analysis and simulation, we show that the global awareness cannot decrease the likelihood of an epidemic outbreak while both the local awareness and the contact awareness can. Also, the influence degree of the local awareness on disease dynamics is closely related with the contact awareness.

  8. Metabolic and hemodynamic activation of postischemic rat brain by cortical spreading depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kocher, M

    1990-07-01

    Following transient ischemia of the brain, the coupling between somatosensory activation and the hemodynamic-metabolic response is abolished for a certain period despite the partial recovery of somatosensory evoked responses. To determine whether this disturbance is due to alterations of the stimulus-induced neuronal excitation or to a breakdown of the coupling mechanisms, cortical spreading depression was used as a metabolic stimulus in rats before and after ischemia. Adult rats were subjected to 30 min of global forebrain ischemia and 3-6 h of recirculation. EEG, cortical direct current (DC) potential, and laser-Doppler flow were continuously recorded. Local CBF (LCBF), local CMRglc (LCMRglc), regional tissue contents of ATP, glucose, and lactate, and regional pH were determined by quantitative autoradiography, substrate-induced bioluminescence, and fluorometry. Amplitude and frequency of the DC shifts did not differ between groups. In control animals, spreading depression induced a 77% rise in cortical glucose consumption, a 66% rise in lactate content, and a drop in tissue pH of 0.3 unit. ATP and glucose contents were not depleted. During the passage of DC shifts, transient increases (less than 2 min) in laser-Doppler flow were observed, followed by a post-spreading depression hypoperfusion. A comparable although less expressed pattern of hemodynamic and metabolic changes was observed in the postischemic rats. Although baseline LCMRglc was depressed after ischemia, it was activated 47% during spreading depression. Lactate increased by 26%, pH decreased by 0.3 unit, and ATP and glucose remained unchanged. The extent of the transient increase in laser-Doppler flow did not differ from that of the control group, and a post-spreading depression hypoperfusion was also found.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

  9. Spreading gossip in social networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lind, Pedro G.; da Silva, Luciano R.; Andrade, José S., Jr.; Herrmann, Hans J.

    2007-09-01

    We study a simple model of information propagation in social networks, where two quantities are introduced: the spread factor, which measures the average maximal reachability of the neighbors of a given node that interchange information among each other, and the spreading time needed for the information to reach such a fraction of nodes. When the information refers to a particular node at which both quantities are measured, the model can be taken as a model for gossip propagation. In this context, we apply the model to real empirical networks of social acquaintances and compare the underlying spreading dynamics with different types of scale-free and small-world networks. We find that the number of friendship connections strongly influences the probability of being gossiped. Finally, we discuss how the spread factor is able to be applied to other situations.

  10. Spread effects - methodology; Spredningseffekter - metodegrunnlag

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-07-01

    Diffusion of technology, environmental effects and rebound effects are the principal effects from the funding of renewable energy and energy economising. It is difficult to estimate the impact of the spread effects both prior to the measures are implemented and after the measures are carried out. Statistical methods can be used to estimate the spread effects, but they are insecure and always need to be complemented with qualitative and subjective evaluations. It is more adequate to evaluate potential spread effects from market and market data surveillance for a selection of technologies and parties. Based on this information qualitative indicators for spread effects can be constructed and used both ex ante and ex post (ml)

  11. Spreading gossip in social networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lind, Pedro G; da Silva, Luciano R; Andrade, José S; Herrmann, Hans J

    2007-09-01

    We study a simple model of information propagation in social networks, where two quantities are introduced: the spread factor, which measures the average maximal reachability of the neighbors of a given node that interchange information among each other, and the spreading time needed for the information to reach such a fraction of nodes. When the information refers to a particular node at which both quantities are measured, the model can be taken as a model for gossip propagation. In this context, we apply the model to real empirical networks of social acquaintances and compare the underlying spreading dynamics with different types of scale-free and small-world networks. We find that the number of friendship connections strongly influences the probability of being gossiped. Finally, we discuss how the spread factor is able to be applied to other situations.

  12. Avian Influenza spread and transmission dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourouiba, Lydia; Gourley, Stephen A.; Liu, Rongsong; Takekawa, John Y.; Wu, Jianhong; Chen, Dongmei; Moulin, Bernard; Wu, Jianhong

    2015-01-01

    The spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses of type A of subtype H5N1 has been a serious threat to global public health. Understanding the roles of various (migratory, wild, poultry) bird species in the transmission of these viruses is critical for designing and implementing effective control and intervention measures. Developing appropriate models and mathematical techniques to understand these roles and to evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation strategies have been a challenge. Recent development of the global health surveillance (especially satellite tracking and GIS techniques) and the mathematical theory of dynamical systems combined have gradually shown the promise of some cutting-edge methodologies and techniques in mathematical biology to meet this challenge.

  13. Spatial And Temporal Patterns As Well As Major Influencing Factors Of Global And Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance Over China: 1960-2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, H.; Sun, F.

    2017-12-01

    Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) on Earth is a central element of climate systems. With changes in the climate and regional development, the patterns and influencing factors of GHI, in addition to presenting global consistency, are increasingly showing regional particularities. Based on data for GHI, Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance (DHI) and potential impact factors (geographical position, elevation, cloud cover, water vapor, and ground atmospheric transparency related variables) from 1960 to 2014 in China, we analyzed the pattern and major influencing factors of GHI and DHI. The results showed that the major influencing factors of the GHI spatial pattern were the total cloud cover (TCC) and relative humidity (RH) in China. Dividing all of China into two regions, the major factors were the water vapor pressure (WVP) in the northern region and TCC in the southern region. And we divided the GHI and DHI data into two periods (1960-1987 and 1988-2014) due to global dimming and brightening observed in China in the late 1980's. The temporal GHI showed that 31 of 58 decreased significantly with an average decreasing rate of 95 MJ.10yr-1 during the periods of 1960-2014 and 49 of 76 stations decreased significantly with an rate of 342 MJ.10yr-1 during 1960-1987, whereas 57 of 88 stations did not change and 24 stations increased significantly with an rate of 201 MJ.10yr-1 during the period of 1988-2014. The temporal DHI showed that 40 of 61sites did not change significantly from 1960 to 1987. The major influencing factors for temporal changes of GHI in nine typical cities from 1960 to 2013 were as follows: air quality-related variables in super cities, sandstorms and wind in desert oasis cities, clouds in cities with good air quality and a low cloud amount (LCA) and annual fog days (FD) in Chengdu. Overall, we identified characteristics of GHI and DHI based on global climate change and regional urban development and found that the spatial characteristics of GHI results for

  14. Inter-firm R&D networks in the global software industry : An overview of major trends and patterns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cloodt, M.M.A.H.; Hagedoorn, J.; Roijakkers, N.

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of some major historical trends in inter-firm R&D partnering in the international software industry during the period 1970–1999. Our research demonstrates an overall growth pattern of newly made R&D partnerships and reveals the important role played by leading firms.

  15. Colonic motility and enema spreading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hardy, J.G.; Wood, E.; Clark, A.G.; Reynolds, J.R.; Queen's Medical Centre, Nottingham

    1986-01-01

    Radiolabelled enema solution was administered to eight healthy subjects, both in fasted and fed states. Enema spreading was monitored over a 4-h period using gamma scintigraphy and colonic motility was recorded simultaneously using a pressure sensitive radiotelemetry capsule. The rate and extent of enema dispersion were unaffected by eating. Spreading could be correlated with colonic motility and was inhibited by aboral propulsion of the colonic contents. (orig.)

  16. Global 21 cm Signal Extraction from Foreground and Instrumental Effects. I. Pattern Recognition Framework for Separation Using Training Sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tauscher, Keith; Rapetti, David; Burns, Jack O.; Switzer, Eric

    2018-02-01

    The sky-averaged (global) highly redshifted 21 cm spectrum from neutral hydrogen is expected to appear in the VHF range of ∼20–200 MHz and its spectral shape and strength are determined by the heating properties of the first stars and black holes, by the nature and duration of reionization, and by the presence or absence of exotic physics. Measurements of the global signal would therefore provide us with a wealth of astrophysical and cosmological knowledge. However, the signal has not yet been detected because it must be seen through strong foregrounds weighted by a large beam, instrumental calibration errors, and ionospheric, ground, and radio-frequency-interference effects, which we collectively refer to as “systematics.” Here, we present a signal extraction method for global signal experiments which uses Singular Value Decomposition of “training sets” to produce systematics basis functions specifically suited to each observation. Instead of requiring precise absolute knowledge of the systematics, our method effectively requires precise knowledge of how the systematics can vary. After calculating eigenmodes for the signal and systematics, we perform a weighted least square fit of the corresponding coefficients and select the number of modes to include by minimizing an information criterion. We compare the performance of the signal extraction when minimizing various information criteria and find that minimizing the Deviance Information Criterion most consistently yields unbiased fits. The methods used here are built into our widely applicable, publicly available Python package, pylinex, which analytically calculates constraints on signals and systematics from given data, errors, and training sets.

  17. Global patterns and impacts of El Niño events on coral reefs: A meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Claar, Danielle C; Szostek, Lisa; McDevitt-Irwin, Jamie M; Schanze, Julian J; Baum, Julia K

    2018-01-01

    Impacts of global climate change on coral reefs are being amplified by pulse heat stress events, including El Niño, the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Despite reports of extensive coral bleaching and up to 97% coral mortality induced by El Niño events, a quantitative synthesis of the nature, intensity, and drivers of El Niño and La Niña impacts on corals is lacking. Herein, we first present a global meta-analysis of studies quantifying the effects of El Niño/La Niña-warming on corals, surveying studies from both the primary literature and International Coral Reef Symposium (ICRS) Proceedings. Overall, the strongest signal for El Niño/La Niña-associated coral bleaching was long-term mean temperature; bleaching decreased with decreasing long-term mean temperature (n = 20 studies). Additionally, coral cover losses during El Niño/La Niña were shaped by localized maximum heat stress and long-term mean temperature (n = 28 studies). Second, we present a method for quantifying coral heat stress which, for any coral reef location in the world, allows extraction of remotely-sensed degree heating weeks (DHW) for any date (since 1982), quantification of the maximum DHW, and the time lag since the maximum DHW. Using this method, we show that the 2015/16 El Niño event instigated unprecedented global coral heat stress across the world's oceans. With El Niño events expected to increase in frequency and severity this century, it is imperative that we gain a clear understanding of how these thermal stress anomalies impact different coral species and coral reef regions. We therefore finish with recommendations for future coral bleaching studies that will foster improved syntheses, as well as predictive and adaptive capacity to extreme warming events.

  18. Global patterns and impacts of El Niño events on coral reefs: A meta-analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danielle C Claar

    Full Text Available Impacts of global climate change on coral reefs are being amplified by pulse heat stress events, including El Niño, the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO. Despite reports of extensive coral bleaching and up to 97% coral mortality induced by El Niño events, a quantitative synthesis of the nature, intensity, and drivers of El Niño and La Niña impacts on corals is lacking. Herein, we first present a global meta-analysis of studies quantifying the effects of El Niño/La Niña-warming on corals, surveying studies from both the primary literature and International Coral Reef Symposium (ICRS Proceedings. Overall, the strongest signal for El Niño/La Niña-associated coral bleaching was long-term mean temperature; bleaching decreased with decreasing long-term mean temperature (n = 20 studies. Additionally, coral cover losses during El Niño/La Niña were shaped by localized maximum heat stress and long-term mean temperature (n = 28 studies. Second, we present a method for quantifying coral heat stress which, for any coral reef location in the world, allows extraction of remotely-sensed degree heating weeks (DHW for any date (since 1982, quantification of the maximum DHW, and the time lag since the maximum DHW. Using this method, we show that the 2015/16 El Niño event instigated unprecedented global coral heat stress across the world's oceans. With El Niño events expected to increase in frequency and severity this century, it is imperative that we gain a clear understanding of how these thermal stress anomalies impact different coral species and coral reef regions. We therefore finish with recommendations for future coral bleaching studies that will foster improved syntheses, as well as predictive and adaptive capacity to extreme warming events.

  19. REGIME SWITCHING DETERMINANTS OF SOVEREIGN CDS SPREADS: EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Umurcan Polat

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study, it is assessed the main determinants of sovereign CDS spreads in Turkey from January 2006 to December 2015. Before delving into the nonlinear Markov regime-switching model estimation, a conventional one-state linear model is estimated answering to what extent the sovereign credit risk is affected in between global and country-specific market variables and by credit ratings announcement changes. In broad strokes, the regime-switching analysis reveals that among domestic variables, it is the foreign exchange rate that affects the sovereign credit risk more in more volatile periods and among global variables, the indicators standing for global volatility risk premiums and international liquidity primarily influence the changes in the sovereign CDS spread in turbulent regimes whereas proxies for global risk free rate are significant more in tranquil regimes.

  20. Intensity-dependent point spread image processing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cornsweet, T.N.; Yellott, J.I.

    1984-01-01

    There is ample anatomical, physiological and psychophysical evidence that the mammilian retina contains networks that mediate interactions among neighboring receptors, resulting in intersecting transformations between input images and their corresponding neural output patterns. The almost universally accepted view is that the principal form of interaction involves lateral inhibition, resulting in an output pattern that is the convolution of the input with a ''Mexican hat'' or difference-of-Gaussians spread function, having a positive center and a negative surround. A closely related process is widely applied in digital image processing, and in photography as ''unsharp masking''. The authors show that a simple and fundamentally different process, involving no inhibitory or subtractive terms can also account for the physiological and psychophysical findings that have been attributed to lateral inhibition. This process also results in a number of fundamental effects that occur in mammalian vision and that would be of considerable significance in robotic vision, but which cannot be explained by lateral inhibitory interaction

  1. Process contributions to the intermodel spread in amplified Arctic warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boeke, R.; Taylor, P. C.

    2016-12-01

    The Arctic is warming at a rate more than twice the global average. This robust climate system response to an external forcing is referred to as Arctic Amplification (AA). While Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate models simulate AA, the largest intermodel spread in projected warming is also found in the Arctic. Quantifying the amount of polar warming relative to global warming influences how society adapts to climate change; a 2°C increase in global mean temperature would result in a polar warming between 4-8°C according to the intermodel spread in CMIP5 simulations. A trove of previous work has considered AA diagnostically using variations in the surface energy budget to attribute the intermodel spread in AA to an assortment of feedbacks—surface albedo, cloud, surface turbulent flux, and atmospheric and oceanic energy transport. We consider a systems-thinking approach treating AA as a process that evolves over time. We hypothesize that two specific components of the AA process are most important and influence the intermodel spread. (1) The inability of the Arctic system to effectively remove excess heat sourced from natural variability. The change in the efficiency of the `Arctic air conditioner' is thought to be due to thinner and less extensive sea ice and the resulting ice albedo feedback. (2) The process through which energy is stored in the ocean and exchanged with the atmosphere within the context of the sea ice annual cycle is also important. This study uses CMIP5 simulations from the historical and RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway; an emission scenario with forcing increasing to 8.5 W m-2 by 2100) to analyze how the AA process operates in present and future climate. The intermodel spread in these processes and the influence on the spread in AA are discussed. This approach identifies models that more realistically simulate the AA process and will aid in narrowing intermodel spread in Arctic surface temperature

  2. Effects of altered maternal folic acid, vitamin B12 and docosahexaenoic acid on placental global DNA methylation patterns in Wistar rats.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asmita Kulkarni

    Full Text Available Potential adverse effects of excess maternal folic acid supplementation on a vegetarian population deficient in vitamin B(12 are poorly understood. We have previously shown in a rat model that maternal folic acid supplementation at marginal protein levels reduces brain omega-3 fatty acid levels in the adult offspring. We have also reported that reduced docosahexaenoic acid (DHA levels may result in diversion of methyl groups towards DNA in the one carbon metabolic pathway ultimately resulting in DNA methylation. This study was designed to examine the effect of normal and excess folic acid in the absence and presence of vitamin B(12 deficiency on global methylation patterns in the placenta. Further, the effect of maternal omega 3 fatty acid supplementation on the above vitamin B(12 deficient diets was also examined. Our results suggest maternal folic acid supplementation in the absence of vitamin B(12 lowers plasma and placental DHA levels (p<0.05 and reduces global DNA methylation levels (p<0.05. When this group was supplemented with omega 3 fatty acids there was an increase in placental DHA levels and subsequently DNA methylation levels revert back to the levels of the control group. Our results suggest for the first time that DHA plays an important role in one carbon metabolism thereby influencing global DNA methylation in the placenta.

  3. Global patterns of land-atmosphere fluxes of carbon dioxide, latent heat, and sensible heat derived from eddy covariance, satellite, and meteorological observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, J.; Reichstein, M.

    2012-12-01

    We upscaled FLUXNET observations of carbon dioxide, water and energy fluxes to the global scale using the machine learning technique, Model Tree Ensembles (MTE). We trained MTE to predict site-level gross primary productivity (GPP), terrestrial ecosystem respiration (TER), net ecosystem exchange (NEE), latent energy (LE), and sensible heat (H) based on remote sensing indices, climate and meteorological data, and information on land use. We applied the trained MTEs to generate global flux fields at a 0.5° x 0.5o spatial resolution and a monthly temporal resolution from 1982-2008. Cross-validation analyses revealed good performance of MTE in predicting among-site flux variability with modeling efficiencies (MEf) between 0.64 and 0.84, except for NEE (MEf = 0.32). Performance was also good for predicting seasonal patterns (MEf between 0.84 and 0.89, except for NEE (0.64)). By comparison, predictions of monthly anomalies were weak. Our products are increasingly used to evaluate global land surface models. However, depending on the flux of interest (e.g. gross primary production, terrestrial ecosystem respiration, net ecosystem exchange, evapotranspiration) and the pattern of interest (mean annual map, seasonal cycles, interannual variability, trends) the robustness and uncertainty of these products varies considerably. To avoid pitfalls, this talk also aims at providing an overview of uncertainties associated with these products, and to provide recommendations on the usage for land surface model evaluations. Finally, we present FLUXCOM - an ongoing activity that aims at generating an ensemble of data-driven FLUXNET based products based on diverse approaches.

  4. A model of spreading of sudden events on social networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jiao; Zheng, Muhua; Zhang, Zi-Ke; Wang, Wei; Gu, Changgui; Liu, Zonghua

    2018-03-01

    Information spreading has been studied for decades, but its underlying mechanism is still under debate, especially for those ones spreading extremely fast through the Internet. By focusing on the information spreading data of six typical events on Sina Weibo, we surprisingly find that the spreading of modern information shows some new features, i.e., either extremely fast or slow, depending on the individual events. To understand its mechanism, we present a susceptible-accepted-recovered model with both information sensitivity and social reinforcement. Numerical simulations show that the model can reproduce the main spreading patterns of the six typical events. By this model, we further reveal that the spreading can be speeded up by increasing either the strength of information sensitivity or social reinforcement. Depending on the transmission probability and information sensitivity, the final accepted size can change from continuous to discontinuous transition when the strength of the social reinforcement is large. Moreover, an edge-based compartmental theory is presented to explain the numerical results. These findings may be of significance on the control of information spreading in modern society.

  5. The reliability and validity of subjective notational analysis in comparison to global positioning system tracking to assess athlete movement patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doğramac, Sera N; Watsford, Mark L; Murphy, Aron J

    2011-03-01

    Subjective notational analysis can be used to track players and analyse movement patterns during match-play of team sports such as futsal. The purpose of this study was to establish the validity and reliability of the Event Recorder for subjective notational analysis. A course was designed, replicating ten minutes of futsal match-play movement patterns, where ten participants undertook the course. The course allowed a comparison of data derived from subjective notational analysis, to the known distances of the course, and to GPS data. The study analysed six locomotor activity categories, focusing on total distance covered, total duration of activities and total frequency of activities. The values between the known measurements and the Event Recorder were similar, whereas the majority of significant differences were found between the Event Recorder and GPS values. The reliability of subjective notational analysis was established with all ten participants being analysed on two occasions, as well as analysing five random futsal players twice during match-play. Subjective notational analysis is a valid and reliable method of tracking player movements, and may be a preferred and more effective method than GPS, particularly for indoor sports such as futsal, and field sports where short distances and changes in direction are observed.

  6. Spreading depolarizations and late secondary insults after traumatic brain injury

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hartings, Jed A; Strong, Anthony J; Fabricius, Martin

    2009-01-01

    Here we investigated the incidence of cortical spreading depolarizations (spreading depression and peri-infarct depolarization) after traumatic brain injury (TBI) and their relationship to systemic physiologic values during neurointensive care. Subdural electrode strips were placed on peri......-contusional cortex in 32 patients who underwent surgical treatment for TBI. Prospective electrocorticography was performed during neurointensive care with retrospective analysis of hourly nursing chart data. Recordings were 84 hr (median) per patient and 2,503 hr in total. In 17 patients (53%), 280 spreading...... depolarizations (spreading depressions and peri-infarct depolarizations) were observed. Depolarizations occurred in a bimodal pattern with peak incidence on days 1 and 7. The probability of a depolarization occurring increased significantly as a function of declining mean arterial pressure (MAP; R(2) = 0.78; p...

  7. Unifying Viral Genetics and Human Transportation Data to Predict the Global Transmission Dynamics of Human Influenza H3N2

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P. Lemey (Philippe); A. Rambaut (Andrew); T. Bedford (Trevor); R. Faria (Rui); F. Bielejec (Filip); G. Baele (Guy); C.A. Russell (Colin); D.J. Smith (Derek James); O. Pybus (Oliver); K. Brockmann; M.A. Suchard (Marc)

    2014-01-01

    textabstractInformation on global human movement patterns is central to spatial epidemiological models used to predict the behavior of influenza and other infectious diseases. Yet it remains difficult to test which modes of dispersal drive pathogen spread at various geographic scales using standard

  8. Exploring Global Patterns in Human Appropriation of Net Primary Production Using Earth Observation Satellites and Statistical Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imhoff, M.; Bounoua, L.

    2004-12-01

    A unique combination of satellite and socio-economic data were used to explore the relationship between human consumption and the carbon cycle. Biophysical models were applied to consumption data to estimate the annual amount of Earth's terrestrial net primary production humans require for food, fiber and fuel using the same modeling architecture as satellite-supported NPP measurements. The amount of Earth's NPP required to support human activities is a powerful measure of the aggregate human impacts on the biosphere and indicator of societal vulnerability to climate change. Equations were developed estimating the amount of landscape-level NPP required to generate all the products consumed by 230 countries including; vegetal foods, meat, milk, eggs, wood, fuel-wood, paper and fiber. The amount of NPP required was calculated on a per capita basis and projected onto a global map of population to create a spatially explicit map of NPP-carbon demand in units of elemental carbon. NPP demand was compared to a map of Earth's average annual net primary production or supply created using 17 years (1982-1998) of AVHRR vegetation index to produce a geographically accurate balance sheet of terrestrial NPP-carbon supply and demand. Globally, humans consume 20 percent of Earth's total net primary production on land. Regionally the NPP-carbon balance percentage varies from 6 to over 70 percent and locally from near 0 to over 30,000 percent in major urban areas. The uneven distribution of NPP-carbon supply and demand, indicate the degree to which various human populations rely on NPP imports, are vulnerable to climate change and suggest policy options for slowing future growth in NPP demand.

  9. Spatial and temporal patterns of CH4 and N2O fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems of North America during 1979–2008: application of a global biogeochemistry model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Lu

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Continental-scale estimations of terrestrial methane (CH4 and nitrous oxide (N2O fluxes over a long time period are crucial to accurately assess the global balance of greenhouse gases and enhance our understanding and prediction of global climate change and terrestrial ecosystem feedbacks. Using a process-based global biogeochemical model, the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM, we quantified simultaneously CH4 and N2O fluxes in North America's terrestrial ecosystems from 1979 to 2008. During the past 30 years, approximately 14.69 ± 1.64 T g C a−1 (1 T g = 1012 g of CH4, and 1.94 ± 0.1 T g N a−1 of N2O were released from terrestrial ecosystems in North America. At the country level, both the US and Canada acted as CH4 sources to the atmosphere, but Mexico mainly oxidized and consumed CH4 from the atmosphere. Wetlands in North America contributed predominantly to the regional CH4 source, while all other ecosystems acted as sinks for atmospheric CH4, of which forests accounted for 36.8%. Regarding N2O emission in North America, the US, Canada, and Mexico contributed 56.19%, 18.23%, and 25.58%, respectively, to the continental source over the past 30 years. Forests and croplands were the two ecosystems that contributed most to continental N2O emission. The inter-annual variations of CH4 and N2O fluxes in North America were mainly attributed to year-to-year climatic variability. While only annual precipitation was found to have a significant effect on annual CH4 flux, both mean annual temperature and annual precipitation were significantly correlated to annual N2O flux. The regional estimates and spatiotemporal patterns of terrestrial ecosystem CH4 and N2O fluxes in North America generated in this study provide useful information for global change research and policy making.

  10. Phase analysis of regional and global ventricular contraction patterns in Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome. Assessment by radionuclide ventriculography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Konishi, Tokuji; Koyama, Takao; Ichikawa, Takehiko and others

    1989-04-01

    Multigated blood pool scintigraphy was performed in 20 normal subjects and 39 patients with various intraventricular conduction abnormalities, including 25 patients with Wolff-Parkinson-White (WPW) syndrome. Cardiac imaging was performed in the modified left anterior oblique, right anterior oblique, and left lateral projections. In WPW syndrome, early contraction sites which were not seen in normal subjects were detected at the ventricular base in phase images. These anomalous early contraction sites disappeared after successful suppression of conduction through an accessory pathway by intravenous procainamide. These sites are believed to correspond to the location of the bundle of Kent and were consistent with the electrocardiographic findings. Phase mapping is a suitable noninvasive method to locate the position of the bundle of Kent and evaluate the ventricular contraction pattern in WPW syndrome and other intraventricular conduction abnormalities. (author).

  11. From One Pixel to One Earth: Building a Living Atlas in the Cloud to Analyze and Monitor Global Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moody, D.; Brumby, S. P.; Chartrand, R.; Franco, E.; Keisler, R.; Kelton, T.; Kontgis, C.; Mathis, M.; Raleigh, D.; Rudelis, X.; Skillman, S.; Warren, M. S.; Longbotham, N.

    2016-12-01

    The recent computing performance revolution has driven improvements in sensor, communication, and storage technology. Historical, multi-decadal remote sensing datasets at the petabyte scale are now available in commercial clouds, with new satellite constellations generating petabytes per year of high-resolution imagery with daily global coverage. Cloud computing and storage, combined with recent advances in machine learning and open software, are enabling understanding of the world at an unprecedented scale and detail. We have assembled all available satellite imagery from the USGS Landsat, NASA MODIS, and ESA Sentinel programs, as well as commercial PlanetScope and RapidEye imagery, and have analyzed over 2.8 quadrillion multispectral pixels. We leveraged the commercial cloud to generate a tiled, spatio-temporal mosaic of the Earth for fast iteration and development of new algorithms combining analysis techniques from remote sensing, machine learning, and scalable compute infrastructure. Our data platform enables processing at petabytes per day rates using multi-source data to produce calibrated, georeferenced imagery stacks at desired points in time and space that can be used for pixel level or global scale analysis. We demonstrate our data platform capability by using the European Space Agency's (ESA) published 2006 and 2009 GlobCover 20+ category label maps to train and test a Land Cover Land Use (LCLU) classifier, and generate current self-consistent LCLU maps in Brazil. We train a standard classifier on 2006 GlobCover categories using temporal imagery stacks, and we validate our results on co-registered 2009 Globcover LCLU maps and 2009 imagery. We then extend the derived LCLU model to current imagery stacks to generate an updated, in-season label map. Changes in LCLU labels can now be seamlessly monitored for a given location across the years in order to track, for example, cropland expansion, forest growth, and urban developments. An example of change

  12. Counterintuitive effects of global warming-induced wind patterns on primary production in the Northern Humboldt Current System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mogollón, Rodrigo; R Calil, Paulo H

    2018-04-14

    It has been hypothesized that global warming will strengthen upwelling-favorable winds in the Northern Humboldt Current System (NHCS) as a consequence of the increase of the land-sea thermal gradient along the Peruvian coast. The effect of strengthened winds in this region is assessed with the use of a coupled physical-biogeochemical model forced with projected and climatological winds. Strengthened winds induce an increase in primary production of 2% per latitudinal degree from 9.5°S to 5°S. In some important coastal upwelling sites primary production is reduced. This is due to a complex balance between nutrient availability, nutrient use efficiency, as well as eddy- and wind-driven factors. Mesoscale activity induces a net offshore transport of inorganic nutrients, thus reducing primary production in the coastal upwelling region. Wind mixing, in general disadvantageous for primary producers, leads to shorter residence times in the southern and central coastal zones. Overall, instead of a proportional enhancement in primary production due to increased winds, the NHCS becomes only 5% more productive (+5 mol C m -2 year -1 ), 10% less limited by nutrients and 15% less efficient due to eddy-driven effects. It is found that regions with a initial strong nutrient limitation are more efficient in terms of nutrient assimilation which makes them more resilient in face of the acceleration of the upwelling circulation. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Spreading dynamics in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pei, Sen; Makse, Hernán A.

    2013-12-01

    Searching for influential spreaders in complex networks is an issue of great significance for applications across various domains, ranging from epidemic control, innovation diffusion, viral marketing, and social movement to idea propagation. In this paper, we first display some of the most important theoretical models that describe spreading processes, and then discuss the problem of locating both the individual and multiple influential spreaders respectively. Recent approaches in these two topics are presented. For the identification of privileged single spreaders, we summarize several widely used centralities, such as degree, betweenness centrality, PageRank, k-shell, etc. We investigate the empirical diffusion data in a large scale online social community—LiveJournal. With this extensive dataset, we find that various measures can convey very distinct information of nodes. Of all the users in the LiveJournal social network, only a small fraction of them are involved in spreading. For the spreading processes in LiveJournal, while degree can locate nodes participating in information diffusion with higher probability, k-shell is more effective in finding nodes with a large influence. Our results should provide useful information for designing efficient spreading strategies in reality.

  14. Spreading dynamics in complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pei, Sen; Makse, Hernán A

    2013-01-01

    Searching for influential spreaders in complex networks is an issue of great significance for applications across various domains, ranging from epidemic control, innovation diffusion, viral marketing, and social movement to idea propagation. In this paper, we first display some of the most important theoretical models that describe spreading processes, and then discuss the problem of locating both the individual and multiple influential spreaders respectively. Recent approaches in these two topics are presented. For the identification of privileged single spreaders, we summarize several widely used centralities, such as degree, betweenness centrality, PageRank, k-shell, etc. We investigate the empirical diffusion data in a large scale online social community—LiveJournal. With this extensive dataset, we find that various measures can convey very distinct information of nodes. Of all the users in the LiveJournal social network, only a small fraction of them are involved in spreading. For the spreading processes in LiveJournal, while degree can locate nodes participating in information diffusion with higher probability, k-shell is more effective in finding nodes with a large influence. Our results should provide useful information for designing efficient spreading strategies in reality. (paper)

  15. Dual polarized, heat spreading rectenna

    Science.gov (United States)

    Epp, Larry W. (Inventor); Khan, Abdur R. (Inventor); Smith, R. Peter (Inventor); Smith, Hugh K. (Inventor)

    1999-01-01

    An aperture coupled patch splits energy from two different polarization components to different locations to spread heat. In addition, there is no physical electrical connection between the slot, patch and circuitry. The circuitry is located under a ground plane which shields against harmonic radiation back to the RF source.

  16. Information Spreading in Epidemics and in Communication Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Uekermann, Florian Philipp

    The PhD thesis revolves mainly around models of disease spreading and human behavior. We present models for different epidemic patterns of infectious diseases. This includes investigations of the trajectory of the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West-Africa, influenza evolution and the seasonal dynamics...

  17. Nitrate and ammonium lead to distinct global dynamic phosphorylation patterns when resupplied to nitrogen-starved Arabidopsis seedlings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engelsberger, Wolfgang R; Schulze, Waltraud X

    2012-03-01

    Nitrogen is an essential macronutrient for plant growth and development. Inorganic nitrogen and its assimilation products control various metabolic, physiological and developmental processes. Although the transcriptional responses induced by nitrogen have been extensively studied in the past, our work here focused on the discovery of candidate proteins for regulatory events that are complementary to transcriptional changes. Most signaling pathways involve modulation of protein abundance and/or activity by protein phosphorylation. Therefore, we analyzed the dynamic changes in protein phosphorylation in membrane and soluble proteins from plants exposed to rapid changes in nutrient availability over a time course of 30 min. Plants were starved of nitrogen and subsequently resupplied with nitrogen in the form of nitrate or ammonium. Proteins with maximum change in their phosphorylation level at up to 5 min after nitrogen resupply (fast responses) included GPI-anchored proteins, receptor kinases and transcription factors, while proteins with maximum change in their phosphorylation level after 10 min of nitrogen resupply (late responses) included proteins involved in protein synthesis and degradation, as well as proteins with functions in central metabolism and hormone metabolism. Resupply of nitrogen in the form of nitrate or ammonium resulted in distinct phosphorylation patterns, mainly of proteins with signaling functions, transcription factors and transporters. © 2011 The Authors. The Plant Journal © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  18. The online database MaarjAM reveals global and ecosystemic distribution patterns in arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (Glomeromycota).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Opik, M; Vanatoa, A; Vanatoa, E; Moora, M; Davison, J; Kalwij, J M; Reier, U; Zobel, M

    2010-10-01

    • Here, we describe a new database, MaarjAM, that summarizes publicly available Glomeromycota DNA sequence data and associated metadata. The goal of the database is to facilitate the description of distribution and richness patterns in this group of fungi. • Small subunit (SSU) rRNA gene sequences and available metadata were collated from all suitable taxonomic and ecological publications. These data have been made accessible in an open-access database (http://maarjam.botany.ut.ee). • Two hundred and eighty-two SSU rRNA gene virtual taxa (VT) were described based on a comprehensive phylogenetic analysis of all collated Glomeromycota sequences. Two-thirds of VT showed limited distribution ranges, occurring in single current or historic continents or climatic zones. Those VT that associated with a taxonomically wide range of host plants also tended to have a wide geographical distribution, and vice versa. No relationships were detected between VT richness and latitude, elevation or vascular plant richness. • The collated Glomeromycota molecular diversity data suggest limited distribution ranges in most Glomeromycota taxa and a positive relationship between the width of a taxon's geographical range and its host taxonomic range. Inconsistencies between molecular and traditional taxonomy of Glomeromycota, and shortage of data from major continents and ecosystems, are highlighted.

  19. Global gene transcription patterns in in vitro-cultured fertilized embryos and diploid and haploid murine parthenotes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cui Xiangshun; Li Xingyu; Kim, Nam-Hyung

    2007-01-01

    To gain insights into the roles the paternal genome and chromosome number play in pre-implantation development, we cultured fertilized embryos and diploid and haploid parthenotes (DPs and HPs, respectively), and compared their development and gene expression patterns. The DPs and fertilized embryos did not differ in developmental ability but HPs development was slower and characterized by impaired compaction and blastocoel formation. Microarray analysis revealed that fertilized blastocysts expressed several genes at higher levels than DP blastocysts; these included the Y-chromosome-specific gene eukaryotic translation initiation factor 2, subunit 3, structural gene Y-linked (Eif2s3y) and the imprinting gene U2 small nuclear ribonucleoprotein auxiliary factor 1, related sequence 1 (U2af1-rs1). We also found that when DPs and HPs were both harvested at 44 and 58 h of culture, they differed in the expression of 38 and 665 genes, respectively. However, when DPs and HPs were harvested at the midpoints of 4-cell stage (44 and 49 h, respectively), no differences in expression was observed. Similarly, when the DPs and HPs were harvested when they became blastocysts (102 and 138 h, respectively), only 15 genes showed disparate expression. These results suggest that while transcripts needed for early development are delayed in HPs, it does progress sufficiently for the generation of the various developmental stages despite the lack of genetic components

  20. Patterns of Coral-Reef Finfish Species Disappearances Inferred from Fishers' Knowledge in Global Epicentre of Marine Shorefish Diversity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margarita N Lavides

    Full Text Available In the Philippines, very high fishing pressure coincides with the globally greatest number of shorefish species, yet no long-term fisheries data are available to explore species-level changes that may have occurred widely in the most species rich and vulnerable marine ecosystem, namely coral reefs. Through 2655 face-to-face interviews conducted between August 2012 and July 2014, we used fishers' recall of past catch rates of reef-associated finfish to infer species disappearances from catches in five marine key biodiversity areas (Lanuza Bay, Danajon Bank, Verde Island Passage, Polillo Islands and Honda Bay. We modeled temporal trends in perceived catch per unit effort (CPUE based on fishers' reports of typical good days' catches using Generalized Linear Mixed Modelling. Fifty-nine different finfish disappeared from catches between the 1950s and 2014; 42 fish were identified to species level, two to genus, seven to family and eight to local name only. Five species occurring at all sites with the greatest number of fishers reporting zero catches were the green bumphead parrotfish (Bolbometopon muricatum, humphead wrasse (Cheilinus undulatus, African pompano (Alectis ciliaris, giant grouper (Epinephelus lanceolatus and mangrove red snapper (Lutjanus argentimaculatus. Between the 1950s and 2014, the mean perceived CPUE of bumphead parrotfish declined by 88%, that of humphead wrasse by 82%, African pompano by 66%, giant grouper by 74% and mangrove red snapper by 64%. These declines were mainly associated with excess and uncontrolled fishing, fish life-history traits like maximum body size and socio-economic factors like access to market infrastructure and services, and overpopulation. The fishers' knowledge is indicative of extirpations where evidence for these losses was otherwise lacking. Our models provide information as basis for area-based conservation and regional resource management particularly for the more vulnerable, once common, large

  1. Patterns of Coral-Reef Finfish Species Disappearances Inferred from Fishers' Knowledge in Global Epicentre of Marine Shorefish Diversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavides, Margarita N; Molina, Erina Pauline V; de la Rosa, Gregorio E; Mill, Aileen C; Rushton, Stephen P; Stead, Selina M; Polunin, Nicholas V C

    2016-01-01

    In the Philippines, very high fishing pressure coincides with the globally greatest number of shorefish species, yet no long-term fisheries data are available to explore species-level changes that may have occurred widely in the most species rich and vulnerable marine ecosystem, namely coral reefs. Through 2655 face-to-face interviews conducted between August 2012 and July 2014, we used fishers' recall of past catch rates of reef-associated finfish to infer species disappearances from catches in five marine key biodiversity areas (Lanuza Bay, Danajon Bank, Verde Island Passage, Polillo Islands and Honda Bay). We modeled temporal trends in perceived catch per unit effort (CPUE) based on fishers' reports of typical good days' catches using Generalized Linear Mixed Modelling. Fifty-nine different finfish disappeared from catches between the 1950s and 2014; 42 fish were identified to species level, two to genus, seven to family and eight to local name only. Five species occurring at all sites with the greatest number of fishers reporting zero catches were the green bumphead parrotfish (Bolbometopon muricatum), humphead wrasse (Cheilinus undulatus), African pompano (Alectis ciliaris), giant grouper (Epinephelus lanceolatus) and mangrove red snapper (Lutjanus argentimaculatus). Between the 1950s and 2014, the mean perceived CPUE of bumphead parrotfish declined by 88%, that of humphead wrasse by 82%, African pompano by 66%, giant grouper by 74% and mangrove red snapper by 64%. These declines were mainly associated with excess and uncontrolled fishing, fish life-history traits like maximum body size and socio-economic factors like access to market infrastructure and services, and overpopulation. The fishers' knowledge is indicative of extirpations where evidence for these losses was otherwise lacking. Our models provide information as basis for area-based conservation and regional resource management particularly for the more vulnerable, once common, large, yet wide

  2. Global Delivery Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manning, Stephan; Larsen, Marcus M.; Bharati, Pratyush

    2013-01-01

    This article examines antecedents and performance implications of global delivery models (GDMs) in global business services. GDMs require geographically distributed operations to exploit both proximity to clients and time-zone spread for efficient service delivery. We propose and empirically show...

  3. Globalization and democracy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DEEPAK NAYYAR

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACTThe gathering momentum of globalization in the world economy has coincided with the spread of political democracy across countries. Economies have become global. But politics remains national. This essay explores the relationship between globalization and democracy, which is neither linear nor characterized by structural rigidities. It seeks to analyze how globalization might constrain degrees of freedom for nation states and space for democratic politics, and how political democracy within countries might exercise some checks and balances on markets and globalization. The essential argument is that the relationship between globalization and democracy is dialectical and does not conform to ideological caricatures.

  4. Emergence and spreading potential of Zika virus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alvaro Fajardo

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Zika virus (ZIKV is an arthropod-borne Flavivirus (family Flaviviridae closely related to dengue, yellow fever and West Nile viruses. ZIKV remained neglected, confined to enzootic transmission cycles in Africa and Asia, until the first significant outbreak was reported in Micronesia in 2007. Subsequent epidemics of growing incidence occurred in French Polynesia and other South Pacific Islands, and recently, in the Americas. The latter and currently ongoing outbreak of unprecedented incidence revealed the association of ZIKV infection with the occurrence of severe congenital malformations and neurological diseases, leading to a widespread concern about its potential to pose a global public health threat. Serological and molecular data suggest that the genetic and geographic diversification of ZIKV may be greatly underestimated. Here we discuss several ecological and epidemiological aspects, together with the evolutionary processes that may have driven the emergence and abrupt spread of ZIKV in the Americas.

  5. Amino acid and nucleotide recurrence in aligned sequences: synonymous substitution patterns in association with global and local base compositions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishizawa, M; Nishizawa, K

    2000-10-01

    The tendency for repetitiveness of nucleotides in DNA sequences has been reported for a variety of organisms. We show that the tendency for repetitive use of amino acids is widespread and is observed even for segments conserved between human and Drosophila melanogaster at the level of >50% amino acid identity. This indicates that repetitiveness influences not only the weakly constrained segments but also those sequence segments conserved among phyla. Not only glutamine (Q) but also many of the 20 amino acids show a comparable level of repetitiveness. Repetitiveness in bases at codon position 3 is stronger for human than for D.melanogaster, whereas local repetitiveness in intron sequences is similar between the two organisms. While genes for immune system-specific proteins, but not ancient human genes (i.e. human homologs of Escherichia coli genes), have repetitiveness at codon bases 1 and 2, repetitiveness at codon base 3 for these groups is similar, suggesting that the human genome has at least two mechanisms generating local repetitiveness. Neither amino acid nor nucleotide repetitiveness is observed beyond the exon boundary, denying the possibility that such repetitiveness could mainly stem from natural selection on mRNA or protein sequences. Analyses of mammalian sequence alignments show that while the 'between gene' GC content heterogeneity, which is linked to 'isochores', is a principal factor associated with the bias in substitution patterns in human, 'within gene' heterogeneity in nucleotide composition is also associated with such bias on a more local scale. The relationship amongst the various types of repetitiveness is discussed.

  6. Global Patterns of Material Flows and their Socio-Economic and Environmental Implications: A MFA Study on All Countries World-Wide from 1980 to 2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Giljum

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper assesses world-wide patterns of material extraction, trade, consumption and productivity based on a new data set for economy-wide material flows, covering used materials for all countries world-wide between 1980 and 2009. We show that global material extraction has grown by more than 90% over the past 30 years and is reaching almost 70 billion tonnes today. Also, trade volumes in physical terms have increased by a factor of 2.5 over the past 30 years, and in 2009, 9.3 billion tonnes of raw materials and products were traded around the globe. China has turned into the biggest consumer of materials world-wide and together with the US, India, Brazil and Russia, consumes more than 50% of all globally extracted materials. We also show that the per-capita consumption levels are very uneven, with a factor of more than 60 between the country with the lowest and highest consumption in 2009. On average, each human being consumed 10 tonnes of materials in 2009, 2 tonnes more than in 1980. We discuss whether decoupling of economies’ growth from resource use has occurred and analyse interrelations of material use with human development. Finally, we elaborate on key environmental problems related to various material groups.

  7. Cigarettes point of purchase patterns in 19 low-income and middle-income countries: Global Adult Tobacco Survey, 2008-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mbulo, Lazarous; Kruger, Judy; Hsia, Jason; Yin, Shaoman; Salandy, Simone; Orlan, Elizabeth N; Agaku, Israel; Ribisl, Kurt M

    2018-04-05

    There is little information on cigarette-purchasing behaviour among smokers globally. Understanding cigarette purchase and point-of-sale patterns can help guide the development and implementation of tobacco-control strategies in retail environments. The purpose of this study was to identify where adults in 19 countries last purchased cigarettes. Data were from 19 low-income and middle-income countries that conducted the Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS) during 2008-2012. GATS is a nationally representative household survey of adults aged 15 years or older using a standardised protocol to measure tobacco-related behaviours. Data were weighted to yield nationally representative estimates within each country and summarised by using descriptive statistics. Overall prevalence of current cigarette smoking ranged from 3.7% in Nigeria to 38.5% in the Russian Federation. Among current cigarette smokers, locations of last purchase were as follows: stores, from 14.6% in Argentina to 98.7% in Bangladesh (median=66.8%); street vendors, from 0% in Thailand to 35.7% in Vietnam (median=3.0%); kiosks, from 0.1% in Thailand to 77.3% in Argentina (median=16.1%); other locations, from 0.3% in China and Egypt to 57.5% in Brazil (median=2.6%). Cigarettes are purchased at various retail locations globally. However, stores and kiosks were the main cigarette purchase locations in 18 of the 19 countries assessed. Knowledge of where cigarette purchases occur could help guide interventions to reduce cigarette accessibility and use. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  8. Impact of international and local conditions on sovereign bond spreads: International evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Selma Izadi

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the effect of international and domestic factors on the sovereign bond spreads for 22 developed countries in North America, Europe and Pacific Rim regions. First, for all the regions the impact of global factors on the sovereign bond spreads is more intense than regional factors. Second, the findings confirm that for the bond spreads of each region over its domestic government bonds, the countries’ local fundamentals are better determinants of the spreads compared to the spread over US government bonds as a safe haven. Third, the influence of worldwide factors in the Eurozone compared to other regions bond spreads is less. Fourth, the relationship of the market sentiment and the investor risk aversion with the sovereign bond spreads of all regions is positive. Equity market volatility plays significant role in yield speads in international bond markets.

  9. Symbiotic specificity, association patterns, and function determine community responses to global changes: defining critical research areas for coral-Symbiodinium symbioses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fabina, Nicholas S; Putnam, Hollie M; Franklin, Erik C; Stat, Michael; Gates, Ruth D

    2013-11-01

    Climate change-driven stressors threaten the persistence of coral reefs worldwide. Symbiotic relationships between scleractinian corals and photosynthetic endosymbionts (genus Symbiodinium) are the foundation of reef ecosystems, and these associations are differentially impacted by stress. Here, we couple empirical data from the coral reefs of Moorea, French Polynesia, and a network theoretic modeling approach to evaluate how patterns in coral-Symbiodinium associations influence community stability under climate change. To introduce the effect of climate perturbations, we simulate local 'extinctions' that represent either the loss of coral species or the ability to engage in symbiotic interactions. Community stability is measured by determining the duration and number of species that persist through the simulated extinctions. Our results suggest that four factors greatly increase coral-Symbiodinium community stability in response to global changes: (i) the survival of generalist hosts and symbionts maximizes potential symbiotic unions; (ii) elevated symbiont diversity provides redundant or complementary symbiotic functions; (iii) compatible symbiotic assemblages create the potential for local recolonization; and (iv) the persistence of certain traits associate with symbiotic diversity and redundancy. Symbiodinium may facilitate coral persistence through novel environmental regimes, but this capacity is mediated by symbiotic specificity, association patterns, and the functional performance of the symbionts. Our model-based approach identifies general trends and testable hypotheses in coral-Symbiodinium community responses. Future studies should consider similar methods when community size and/or environmental complexity preclude experimental approaches. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Modelling dengue epidemic spreading with human mobility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barmak, D. H.; Dorso, C. O.; Otero, M.

    2016-04-01

    We explored the effect of human mobility on the spatio-temporal dynamics of Dengue with a stochastic model that takes into account the epidemiological dynamics of the infected mosquitoes and humans, with different mobility patterns of the human population. We observed that human mobility strongly affects the spread of infection by increasing the final size and by changing the morphology of the epidemic outbreaks. When the spreading of the disease is driven only by mosquito dispersal (flight), a main central focus expands diffusively. On the contrary, when human mobility is taken into account, multiple foci appear throughout the evolution of the outbreaks. These secondary foci generated throughout the outbreaks could be of little importance according to their mass or size compared with the largest main focus. However, the coalescence of these foci with the main one generates an effect, through which the latter develops a size greater than the one obtained in the case driven only by mosquito dispersal. This increase in growth rate due to human mobility and the coalescence of the foci are particularly relevant in temperate cities such as the city of Buenos Aires, since they give more possibilities to the outbreak to grow before the arrival of the low-temperature season. The findings of this work indicate that human mobility could be the main driving force in the dynamics of vector epidemics.

  11. Spreading of a granular droplet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clement, Eric; Sanchez, Ivan; Raynaud, Franck; Lanuza, Jose; Andreotti, Bruno; Aranson, Igor

    2008-03-01

    The influence of controlled vibrations on the granular rheology is investigated in a specifically designed experiment in which a granular film spreads under the action of horizontal vibrations. A nonlinear diffusion equation is derived theoretically that describes the evolution of the deposit shape. A self-similar parabolic shape (the``granular droplet'') and a spreading dynamics are predicted that both agree quantitatively with the experimental results. The theoretical analysis is used to extract effective friction coefficients between the base and the granular layer under sustained and controlled vibrations. A shear thickening regime characteristic of dense granular flows is evidenced at low vibration energy, both for glass beads and natural sand. Conversely, shear thinning is observed at high agitation.

  12. Global equivalent magnetization of the oceanic lithosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dyment, J.; Choi, Y.; Hamoudi, M.; Lesur, V.; Thebault, E.

    2015-11-01

    As a by-product of the construction of a new World Digital Magnetic Anomaly Map over oceanic areas, we use an original approach based on the global forward modeling of seafloor spreading magnetic anomalies and their comparison to the available marine magnetic data to derive the first map of the equivalent magnetization over the World's ocean. This map reveals consistent patterns related to the age of the oceanic lithosphere, the spreading rate at which it was formed, and the presence of mantle thermal anomalies which affects seafloor spreading and the resulting lithosphere. As for the age, the equivalent magnetization decreases significantly during the first 10-15 Myr after its formation, probably due to the alteration of crustal magnetic minerals under pervasive hydrothermal alteration, then increases regularly between 20 and 70 Ma, reflecting variations in the field strength or source effects such as the acquisition of a secondary magnetization. As for the spreading rate, the equivalent magnetization is twice as strong in areas formed at fast rate than in those formed at slow rate, with a threshold at ∼40 km/Myr, in agreement with an independent global analysis of the amplitude of Anomaly 25. This result, combined with those from the study of the anomalous skewness of marine magnetic anomalies, allows building a unified model for the magnetic structure of normal oceanic lithosphere as a function of spreading rate. Finally, specific areas affected by thermal mantle anomalies at the time of their formation exhibit peculiar equivalent magnetization signatures, such as the cold Australian-Antarctic Discordance, marked by a lower magnetization, and several hotspots, marked by a high magnetization.

  13. Drop Spreading with Random Viscosity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Feng; Jensen, Oliver

    2016-11-01

    Airway mucus acts as a barrier to protect the lung. However as a biological material, its physical properties are known imperfectly and can be spatially heterogeneous. In this study we assess the impact of these uncertainties on the rate of spreading of a drop (representing an inhaled aerosol) over a mucus film. We model the film as Newtonian, having a viscosity that depends linearly on the concentration of a passive solute (a crude proxy for mucin proteins). Given an initial random solute (and hence viscosity) distribution, described as a Gaussian random field with a given correlation structure, we seek to quantify the uncertainties in outcomes as the drop spreads. Using lubrication theory, we describe the spreading of the drop in terms of a system of coupled nonlinear PDEs governing the evolution of film height and the vertically-averaged solute concentration. We perform Monte Carlo simulations to predict the variability in the drop centre location and width (1D) or area (2D). We show how simulation results are well described (at much lower computational cost) by a low-order model using a weak disorder expansion. Our results show for example how variability in the drop location is a non-monotonic function of the solute correlation length increases. Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council.

  14. Slip of Spreading Viscoplastic Droplets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jalaal, Maziyar; Balmforth, Neil J; Stoeber, Boris

    2015-11-10

    The spreading of axisymmetric viscoplastic droplets extruded slowly on glass surfaces is studied experimentally using shadowgraphy and swept-field confocal microscopy. The microscopy furnishes vertical profiles of the radial velocity using particle image velocimetry (PIV) with neutrally buoyant tracers seeded in the fluid. Experiments were conducted for two complex fluids: aqueous solutions of Carbopol and xanthan gum. On untreated glass surfaces, PIV demonstrates that both fluids experience a significant amount of effective slip. The experiments were repeated on glass that had been treated to feature positive surface charges, thereby promoting adhesion between the negatively charged polymeric constituents of the fluids and the glass surface. The Carbopol and xanthan gum droplets spread more slowly on the treated surface and to a smaller radial distance. PIV demonstrated that this reduced spreading was associated with a substantial reduction in slip. For Carbopol, the effective slip could be eliminated entirely to within the precision of the PIV measurements; the reduction in slip was less effective for xanthan gum, with a weak slip velocity remaining noticeable.

  15. Spontaneous Spreading of a Droplet: The Role of Solid Continuity and Advancing Contact Angle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Youhua; Sun, Yujin; Drelich, Jaroslaw W; Choi, Chang-Hwan

    2018-05-01

    Spontaneous spreading of a droplet on a solid surface is poorly understood from a macroscopic level down to a molecular level. Here, we investigate the effect of surface topography and wettability on spontaneous spreading of a water droplet. Spreading force is measured for a suspended droplet that minimizes interference of kinetic energy in the spontaneous spreading during its contact with solid surfaces of discontinuous (pillar) and continuous (pore) patterns with various shapes and dimensions. Results show that a droplet cannot spread spontaneously on pillared surfaces regardless of their shapes or dimensions because of the solid discontinuity. On the contrary, a droplet on pored surfaces can undergo spontaneous spreading whose force increases with a decrease in the advancing contact angle. Theoretical models based on both the system free energy and capillary force along the contact line validate the direct and universal dependency of the spontaneous spreading force on the advancing contact angle.

  16. Reverse preferential spread in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toyoizumi, Hiroshi; Tani, Seiichi; Miyoshi, Naoto; Okamoto, Yoshio

    2012-08-01

    Large-degree nodes may have a larger influence on the network, but they can be bottlenecks for spreading information since spreading attempts tend to concentrate on these nodes and become redundant. We discuss that the reverse preferential spread (distributing information inversely proportional to the degree of the receiving node) has an advantage over other spread mechanisms. In large uncorrelated networks, we show that the mean number of nodes that receive information under the reverse preferential spread is an upper bound among any other weight-based spread mechanisms, and this upper bound is indeed a logistic growth independent of the degree distribution.

  17. Recurrent bridgehead effects accelerate global alien ant spread

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cleo Bertelsmeier; Sébastien Ollier; Andrew M. Liebhold; Eckehard G. Brockerhoff; Darren Ward; Laurent Keller

    2018-01-01

    Biological invasions are a major threat to biological diversity, agriculture, and human health. To predict and prevent new invasions, it is crucial to develop a better understanding of the drivers of the invasion process. The analysis of 4,533 border interception events revealed that at least 51 different alien ant species were intercepted at US ports over a period of...

  18. The global spread of HIV-1 subtype B epidemic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Magiorkinis, Gkikas; Angelis, Konstantinos; Mamais, Ioannis; Katzourakis, Aris; Hatzakis, Angelos; Albert, Jan; Lawyer, Glenn; Hamouda, Osamah; Struck, Daniel; Vercauteren, Jurgen; Wensing, Annemarie; Alexiev, Ivailo; Åsjö, Birgitta; Balotta, Claudia; Gomes, Perpétua; Camacho, Ricardo J.; Coughlan, Suzie; Griskevicius, Algirdas; Grossman, Zehava; Horban, Anders; Kostrikis, Leondios G.; Lepej, Snjezana J.; Liitsola, Kirsi; Linka, Marek; Nielsen, Claus; Otelea, Dan; Paredes, Roger; Poljak, Mario; Puchhammer-Stöckl, Elizabeth; Schmit, Jean Claude; Sönnerborg, Anders; Staneková, Danica; Stanojevic, Maja; Stylianou, Dora C.; Boucher, Charles A B; Nikolopoulos, Georgios; Vasylyeva, Tetyana; Friedman, Samuel R.; van de Vijver, David; Angarano, Gioacchino; Chaix, Marie Laure; de Luca, Andrea; Korn, Klaus; Loveday, Clive; Soriano, Vincent; Yerly, Sabine; Zazzi, Mauricio; Vandamme, Anne Mieke; Paraskevis, Dimitrios

    2016-01-01

    Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) was discovered in the early 1980s when the virus had already established a pandemic. For at least three decades the epidemic in the Western World has been dominated by subtype B infections, as part of a sub-epidemic that traveled from Africa through Haiti

  19. The global spread of HIV-1 subtype B epidemic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G. Magiorkinis (Gkikas); K. Angelis (Konstantinos); I. Mamais (Ioannis); Katzourakis, A. (Aris); A. Hatzakis (Angelos); J. Albert (Jan); Lawyer, G. (Glenn); O. Hamouda (Osamah); D. Struck (Daniel); J. Vercauteren (Jurgen); A. Wensing (Amj); I. Alexiev (Ivailo); B. Åsjö (Birgitta); C. Balotta (Claudia); Gomes, P. (Perpétua); R.J. Camacho (Ricardo Jorge); S. Coughlan (Suzie); A. Griskevicius (Algirdas); Z. Grossman (Zehava); Horban, A. (Anders); L.G. Kostrikis (Leondios); Lepej, S.J. (Snjezana J.); K. Liitsola (Kirsi); M. Linka (Marek); C. Nielsen; D. Otelea (Dan); R. Paredes (Roger); M. Poljak (Mario); E. Puchhammer-Stöckl (Elisabeth); J.C. Schmit; A. Sonnerborg (Anders); D. Stanekova (Danica); M. Stanojevic (Maja); Stylianou, D.C. (Dora C.); C.A.B. Boucher (Charles); Nikolopoulos, G. (Georgios); Vasylyeva, T. (Tetyana); Friedman, S.R. (Samuel R.); D.A.M.C. van de Vijver (David); G. Angarano (Guiseppe); M.L. Chaix (Marie Laure); A. de Luca (Andrea); K. Korn (Klaus); Loveday, C. (Clive); V. Soriano (Virtudes); S. Yerly (Sabine); M. Zazzi; A.M. Vandamme (Anne Mieke); D. Paraskevis (Dimitrios)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractHuman immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) was discovered in the early 1980s when the virus had already established a pandemic. For at least three decades the epidemic in the Western World has been dominated by subtype B infections, as part of a sub-epidemic that traveled from Africa

  20. Variation in stem mortality rates determines patterns of above-ground biomass in Amazonian forests: implications for dynamic global vegetation models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Michelle O; Galbraith, David; Gloor, Manuel; De Deurwaerder, Hannes; Guimberteau, Matthieu; Rammig, Anja; Thonicke, Kirsten; Verbeeck, Hans; von Randow, Celso; Monteagudo, Abel; Phillips, Oliver L; Brienen, Roel J W; Feldpausch, Ted R; Lopez Gonzalez, Gabriela; Fauset, Sophie; Quesada, Carlos A; Christoffersen, Bradley; Ciais, Philippe; Sampaio, Gilvan; Kruijt, Bart; Meir, Patrick; Moorcroft, Paul; Zhang, Ke; Alvarez-Davila, Esteban; Alves de Oliveira, Atila; Amaral, Ieda; Andrade, Ana; Aragao, Luiz E O C; Araujo-Murakami, Alejandro; Arets, Eric J M M; Arroyo, Luzmila; Aymard, Gerardo A; Baraloto, Christopher; Barroso, Jocely; Bonal, Damien; Boot, Rene; Camargo, Jose; Chave, Jerome; Cogollo, Alvaro; Cornejo Valverde, Fernando; Lola da Costa, Antonio C; Di Fiore, Anthony; Ferreira, Leandro; Higuchi, Niro; Honorio, Euridice N; Killeen, Tim J; Laurance, Susan G; Laurance, William F; Licona, Juan; Lovejoy, Thomas; Malhi, Yadvinder; Marimon, Bia; Marimon, Ben Hur; Matos, Darley C L; Mendoza, Casimiro; Neill, David A; Pardo, Guido; Peña-Claros, Marielos; Pitman, Nigel C A; Poorter, Lourens; Prieto, Adriana; Ramirez-Angulo, Hirma; Roopsind, Anand; Rudas, Agustin; Salomao, Rafael P; Silveira, Marcos; Stropp, Juliana; Ter Steege, Hans; Terborgh, John; Thomas, Raquel; Toledo, Marisol; Torres-Lezama, Armando; van der Heijden, Geertje M F; Vasquez, Rodolfo; Guimarães Vieira, Ima Cèlia; Vilanova, Emilio; Vos, Vincent A; Baker, Timothy R

    2016-12-01

    Understanding the processes that determine above-ground biomass (AGB) in Amazonian forests is important for predicting the sensitivity of these ecosystems to environmental change and for designing and evaluating dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). AGB is determined by inputs from woody productivity [woody net primary productivity (NPP)] and the rate at which carbon is lost through tree mortality. Here, we test whether two direct metrics of tree mortality (the absolute rate of woody biomass loss and the rate of stem mortality) and/or woody NPP, control variation in AGB among 167 plots in intact forest across Amazonia. We then compare these relationships and the observed variation in AGB and woody NPP with the predictions of four DGVMs. The observations show that stem mortality rates, rather than absolute rates of woody biomass loss, are the most important predictor of AGB, which is consistent with the importance of stand size structure for determining spatial variation in AGB. The relationship between stem mortality rates and AGB varies among different regions of Amazonia, indicating that variation in wood density and height/diameter relationships also influences AGB. In contrast to previous findings, we find that woody NPP is not correlated with stem mortality rates and is weakly positively correlated with AGB. Across the four models, basin-wide average AGB is similar to the mean of the observations. However, the models consistently overestimate woody NPP and poorly represent the spatial patterns of both AGB and woody NPP estimated using plot data. In marked contrast to the observations, DGVMs typically show strong positive relationships between woody NPP and AGB. Resolving these differences will require incorporating forest size structure, mechanistic models of stem mortality and variation in functional composition in DGVMs. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. Global biogeography of human infectious diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Kris A; Preston, Nicholas; Allen, Toph; Zambrana-Torrelio, Carlos; Hosseini, Parviez R; Daszak, Peter

    2015-10-13

    The distributions of most infectious agents causing disease in humans are poorly resolved or unknown. However, poorly known and unknown agents contribute to the global burden of disease and will underlie many future disease risks. Existing patterns of infectious disease co-occurrence could thus play a critical role in resolving or anticipating current and future disease threats. We analyzed the global occurrence patterns of 187 human infectious diseases across 225 countries and seven epidemiological classes (human-specific, zoonotic, vector-borne, non-vector-borne, bacterial, viral, and parasitic) to show that human infectious diseases exhibit distinct spatial grouping patterns at a global scale. We demonstrate, using outbreaks of Ebola virus as a test case, that this spatial structuring provides an untapped source of prior information that could be used to tighten the focus of a range of health-related research and management activities at early stages or in data-poor settings, including disease surveillance, outbreak responses, or optimizing pathogen discovery. In examining the correlates of these spatial patterns, among a range of geographic, epidemiological, environmental, and social factors, mammalian biodiversity was the strongest predictor of infectious disease co-occurrence overall and for six of the seven disease classes examined, giving rise to a striking congruence between global pathogeographic and "Wallacean" zoogeographic patterns. This clear biogeographic signal suggests that infectious disease assemblages remain fundamentally constrained in their distributions by ecological barriers to dispersal or establishment, despite the homogenizing forces of globalization. Pathogeography thus provides an overarching context in which other factors promoting infectious disease emergence and spread are set.

  2. Plume spread and atmospheric stability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weber, R O [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

    1999-08-01

    The horizontal spread of a plume in atmospheric dispersion can be described by the standard deviation of horizontal direction. The widely used Pasquill-Gifford classes of atmospheric stability have assigned typical values of the standard deviation of horizontal wind direction and of the lapse rate. A measured lapse rate can thus be used to estimate the standard deviation of wind direction. It is examined by means of a large dataset of fast wind measurements how good these estimates are. (author) 1 fig., 2 refs.

  3. Sovereign bonds in developing countries: Drivers of issuance and spreads

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea F. Presbitero

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In the last decade there has been a new wave of sovereign bond issuances in Africa. What determines the ability of developing countries to issue bonds in international capital and what explains the spreads on these bonds? This paper examines these questions using a dataset that includes 105 developing countries during the period 1995–2014. We find that a country is more likely to issue a bond when, in comparison with non-issuing peers, it is larger in economic size, has higher per capita GDP, a lower public debt, and a more effective government. Spreads on sovereign bonds are lower for countries with strong external and fiscal positions, as well as robust economic growth and government effectiveness. We also find that primary spreads for the average Sub-Saharan African issuer are higher than in other regions. With regard to global factors, our results confirm the existing evidence that issuances are more likely during periods of global liquidity and high commodity prices, especially for Sub-Saharan African countries, and spreads are higher in periods of higher market volatility.

  4. Coding-Spreading Tradeoff in CDMA Systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bolas, Eduardo

    2002-01-01

    .... Comparing different combinations of coding and spreading with a traditional DS-CDMA, as defined in the IS-95 standard, allows the criteria to be defined for the best coding-spreading tradeoff in CDMA systems...

  5. Lexical Ambiguity: Making a Case against Spread

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, Jennifer J.; Rogness, Neal T.; Fisher, Diane G.

    2012-01-01

    We argue for decreasing the use of the word "spread" when describing the statistical idea of dispersion or variability in introductory statistics courses. In addition, we argue for increasing the use of the word "variability" as a replacement for "spread."

  6. Onset conditions for equatorial spread F

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mendillo, M.; Baumgardner, J.; Xiaoqing Pi; Sultan, P.J.; Tsunoda, R.

    1992-01-01

    The problem of day-to-day variability in the occurrence of equatorial spread F (ESF) is addressed using multidiagnostic observations and semiempirical modeling. The observational results are derived from a two-night case study of ESF onset conditions observed at Kwajalein Atoll (Marshall Islands) using the ALTAIR incoherent scatter radar and all-sky optical imaging techniques. The major difference between nights when ESF instabilities did not occur (August 14, 1988) and did occur (August 15, 1988) in the Kwajalein sector was that the northern meridional gradient of 6300-angstrom airglow was reduced on the night of limited ESF activity. Modeling results suggest that this unusual airglow pattern is due to equatorward neutral winds. Previous researchers have shown that transequatorial thermospheric winds can exert a control over ESF seasonal and longitudinal occurrence patterns by inhibiting Rayleigh-Taylor instability growth rates. They present evidence to suggest that this picture can be extended to far shorter time scales, namely, that 'surges' in transequatoral winds acting over characteristic times of a few hours to a day can result in a stabilizing influence upon irregularity growth rates. The seemingly capricious nature of ESF onset may thus be controlled, in part, by the inherent variability of low-latitude thermospheric winds

  7. Patterns of Global Terrorism 2001

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2002-01-01

    .... Country by country, region by region, we have strengthened law enforcement and intelligence cooperation and we have tightened border controls to make it harder for terrorists to move about, communicate, and plot...

  8. Patterns of Global Terrorism 2003

    Science.gov (United States)

    2004-04-01

    authorities provided the United States Department of Homeland Security and FBI with evidence leading to the A Russian man crouches near a carnation ...Righteous • Continuity Irish Republican Army (CIRA)–a.k.a. Continuity Army Council • Orange Volunteers (OV) • Red Hand Defenders (RHD) • New

  9. Patterns of Global Terrorism 2001

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-05-01

    United States to stand trial since 1993. Others included Ramzi Yousef and Mir Aimal Kansi (refer to full list at appendix D). Third, isolate and apply...resulting in deaths as well. Azerbaijan Azerbaijan and the United States have a good record of cooperation on counterterrorism issues that predates the...on US Embassy, Jakarta) June 1997 Mir Aimal Kansi Rendition (January 1993 shooting outside CIA headquarters) June 1998 Mohammed Rashid Rendition

  10. Patterns of Global Terrorism 2002

    Science.gov (United States)

    2003-04-01

    Lebanon. On 25 July, SEPRINTE raided the Ciudad del Este office and apartment of alleged money launderer Fajkumar Naraindas Sabnani, who is allegedly...Saint-Jean-De- Luz , unidentified persons threw gasoline bombs at a police headquarters, causing material damage to police barracks and three parked...sustaining. 121 Revolutionary Organization 17 November a.k.a. 17 November Revolutionary People’s Liberation Party/Front (DHKP/C) a.k.a. Devrimci Sol

  11. Patterns of Global Terrorism 1999

    Science.gov (United States)

    2000-04-01

    subsidiary of Swiss-owned Nestle Multinational. The explosion caused major damage but no injuries. India Official sources reported that unidentified militants... Malaysia , a local Bishop, two UNICEF officials, two local journalists, and 16 Sierra Leonean nationals. No one was injured in the attack. The rebels...one German, one US citizen, and several citizens from Malaysia , Singapore, and Thailand. The group, calling itself the Vigorous Burmese Student

  12. A Finsler geodesic spray paradigm for wildfire spread modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Markvorsen, Steen

    2015-01-01

    represents the local fire templates. The ‘paradigm’ part of the present proposal is thus concerned with the corresponding shift of attention from the actual fire-lines to consider instead the geodesic spray - the ‘fire-particles’ - which together, side by side, mold the fire-lines at each instant of time...... and thence eventually constitute the local and global structure of the wildfire spread....

  13. What Happens to Patterns of Food Consumption when Food Prices Change? Evidence from A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Food Price Elasticities Globally.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cornelsen, Laura; Green, Rosemary; Turner, Rachel; Dangour, Alan D; Shankar, Bhavani; Mazzocchi, Mario; Smith, Richard D

    2015-12-01

    Recent years have seen considerable interest in examining the impact of food prices on food consumption and subsequent health consequences. Fiscal policies targeting the relative price of unhealthy foods are frequently put forward as ways to address the obesity epidemic. Conversely, various food subsidy interventions are used in attempts to reduce levels of under-nutrition. Information on price elasticities is essential for understanding how such changes in food prices affect food consumption. It is crucial to know not only own-price elasticities but also cross-price elasticities, as food substitution patterns may have significant implications for policy recommendations. While own-price elasticities are common in analyses of the impact of food price changes on health, cross-price effects, even though generally acknowledged, are much less frequently included in analyses, especially in the public health literature. This article systematically reviews the global evidence on cross-price elasticities and provides combined estimates for seven food groups in low-income, middle-income and high-income countries alongside previously estimated own-price elasticities. Changes in food prices had the largest own-price effects in low-income countries. Cross-price effects were more varied and depending on country income level were found to be reinforcing, undermining or alleviating own-price effects. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  14. Differences in Spatial Physical Activity Patterns between Weekdays and Weekends in Primary School Children: A Cross-Sectional Study Using Accelerometry and Global Positioning System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahel Bürgi

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Targeting the weekend to promote physical activity (PA in children seems to be promising given that they tend to be less physically active and, particularly, as the age-related decline in PA is more marked during weekends. Considering the ambiguity of why children are not able to maintain their PA level on weekends, the aim of the present study was to objectively investigate differences in children’s spatial PA patterns between week and weekend days using the combination of Global Positioning System (GPS and accelerometry. Seventy-four second graders (aged 7–9 years and 98 sixth graders (aged 11–14 years wore an accelerometer and GPS sensor for seven consecutive days to determine where children spend time and engage in PA. Time-matched accelerometer and GPS data was mapped with a geographic information system and multilevel analyses accounting for the hierarchical structure of the data were conducted. Differences between weekdays and weekends regarding the total time spent and the absolute and relative level of PA in various settings were found in both age groups. The findings support previous research pointing to the importance of targeting weekend PA, especially when children grow older. Future interventions should encourage children to use outdoor spaces more frequently on weekends, rather than stay at home, and to commute actively to destinations other than school.

  15. The spread and effect of HIV-1 infection in sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buvé, Anne; Bishikwabo-Nsarhaza, Kizito; Mutangadura, Gladys

    2002-06-08

    Africa is the continent most severely affected by the global HIV-1 epidemic, with east and southern Africa in general more severely affected than west and central Africa. Differences in the spread of the epidemic can be accounted for by a complex interplay of sexual behaviour and biological factors that affect the probability of HIV-1 transmission per sex act. Sexual behaviour patterns are determined by cultural and socioeconomic contexts. In sub-Saharan Africa, some traditions and socioeconomic developments have contributed to the extensive spread of HIV-1 infection, including the subordinate position of women, impoverishment and decline of social services, rapid urbanisation and modernisation, and wars and conflicts. Populations in many parts of Africa are becoming trapped in a vicious circle as the HIV-1 epidemic leads to high mortality rates in young and economically productive age groups, and thus leads to further impoverishment. Interventions to control HIV-1 should not only target individuals, but also aim to change those aspects of cultural and socioeconomic context that increase the vulnerability to HIV-1 of people and communities.

  16. Drought-associated tree mortality: Global patterns and insights from tree-ring studies in the southwestern U.S.A

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macalady, Alison Kelly

    Forests play an important role in the earth system, regulating climate, maintaining biodiversity, and provisioning human communities with water, food and fuel. Interactions between climate and forest dynamics are not well constrained, and high uncertainty characterizes projections of global warming impacts on forests and associated ecosystem services. Recently observed tree mortality and forest die-off forewarn an acceleration of forest change with rising temperature and increased drought. However, the processes leading to tree death during drought are poorly understood, limiting our ability to anticipate future forest dynamics. The objective of this dissertation was to improve understanding of drought-associated tree mortality through literature synthesis and tree-ring studies on trees that survived and died during droughts in the southwestern USA. Specifically, this dissertation 1) documented global tree mortality patterns and identified emerging trends and research gaps; 2) quantified relationships between growth, climate, competition and mortality of pinon pine during droughts in New Mexico; 3) investigated tree defense anatomy as a potentially key element in pinon avoidance of death; and, 4) characterized the climate sensitivity of pinon resin ducts in order to gain insight into potential trends in tree defenses with climate variability and change. There has been an increase in studies reporting tree mortality linked to drought, heat, and the associated activity of insects and pathogens. Cases span the forested continents and occurred in water, light and temperature-limited forests. We hypothesized that increased tree mortality may be an emerging global phenomenon related to rising temperatures and drought (Appendix A). Recent radial growth was 53% higher on average in pinon that survived versus died during two episodes of drought-associated mortality, and statistical models of mortality risk based on average growth, growth variability, and abrupt growth

  17. Hydroclimatological And Anthropogenic Drivers For Cholera Spreading

    Science.gov (United States)

    Righetto, Lorenzo; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Mari, Lorenzo; Casagrandi, Renato; Gatto, Marino; Rinaldo, Andrea

    2010-05-01

    The nature of waterborne diseases, among which cholera has a prominent importance, calls for a better understanding of the link between epidemic spreading, water and climate. To this end, we have developed a framework which involves a network-based description of a river system, connected with local communities which act as nodes of the network. This has allowed us to produce consistent simulations of real case studies. More recent investigations comprise the evaluation of the spreading velocity of an epidemic wave by means of a reaction-diffusion modeling approach. In particular, we have found that both transport processes and epidemiological quantities, such as the basic reproduction number, have a crucial effect in controlling the spreading of the epidemics. We first developed a description of bacterial movement along the network driven by advection and diffusion; afterward, we have included the movement of human populations. This latter model allowed us to establish the conditions that can trigger epidemic waves that start from the coastal region, where bacteria are autochthonous, and travel inland. In particular, our findings suggest that even relatively low values of human diffusion can have the epidemic propagate upstream. The interaction between climate, hydrology and epidemic events is still much debated, since no clear correlation between climatologic and epidemiological phenomena has emerged so far. However, a spatial assessment of hydrological and epidemiological mechanisms could be crucial to understand the evolution of cholera outbreaks. In particular, a hotly debated topic is the understanding of the mechanisms that can generate patterns of cholera incidence that exhibit an intra-annual double peak, as frequently observed in endemic region such as Bangladesh. One of the possible explanations proposed in the literature is that spring droughts cause bacteria concentration in water to rise dramatically, triggering the first peak. On the other hand

  18. fMRI orientation decoding in V1 does not require global maps or globally coherent orientation stimuli.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alink, Arjen; Krugliak, Alexandra; Walther, Alexander; Kriegeskorte, Nikolaus

    2013-01-01

    The orientation of a large grating can be decoded from V1 functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data, even at low resolution (3-mm isotropic voxels). This finding has suggested that columnar-level neuronal information might be accessible to fMRI at 3T. However, orientation decodability might alternatively arise from global orientation-preference maps. Such global maps across V1 could result from bottom-up processing, if the preferences of V1 neurons were biased toward particular orientations (e.g., radial from fixation, or cardinal, i.e., vertical or horizontal). Global maps could also arise from local recurrent or top-down processing, reflecting pre-attentive perceptual grouping, attention spreading, or predictive coding of global form. Here we investigate whether fMRI orientation decoding with 2-mm voxels requires (a) globally coherent orientation stimuli and/or (b) global-scale patterns of V1 activity. We used opposite-orientation gratings (balanced about the cardinal orientations) and spirals (balanced about the radial orientation), along with novel patch-swapped variants of these stimuli. The two stimuli of a patch-swapped pair have opposite orientations everywhere (like their globally coherent parent stimuli). However, the two stimuli appear globally similar, a patchwork of opposite orientations. We find that all stimulus pairs are robustly decodable, demonstrating that fMRI orientation decoding does not require globally coherent orientation stimuli. Furthermore, decoding remained robust after spatial high-pass filtering for all stimuli, showing that fine-grained components of the fMRI patterns reflect visual orientations. Consistent with previous studies, we found evidence for global radial and vertical preference maps in V1. However, these were weak or absent for patch-swapped stimuli, suggesting that global preference maps depend on globally coherent orientations and might arise through recurrent or top-down processes related to the perception of

  19. Bank Lending, Housing and Spreads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aslam, Aqib; Santoro, Emiliano

    The framework presented in this paper takes its cue from recent financial events and attempts to develop a tractable framework for policy analysis of macro-linkages, in particular a first attempt at the integration of an independent profit-maximising banking sector that lends to and borrows from...... agents in the economy, and through which changes in the monetary policy rate by the central bank are transmitted. The inter-linkages between housing and the role of the banking sector in the transmission of monetary policy is emphasized. Two competing effects are highlighted: (i) a financial accelerator...... channel, due to the presence of collateralized borrowers, and (ii) a banking attenuator effect, which crucially arises from the spread in interest rates caused by the introduction of monopolistically competitive financial intermediaries. We show how the classical amplification mechanism explored in models...

  20. Geodesic patterns

    KAUST Repository

    Pottmann, Helmut; Huang, Qixing; Deng, Bailin; Schiftner, Alexander; Kilian, Martin; Guibas, Leonidas J.; Wallner, Johannes

    2010-01-01

    Geodesic curves in surfaces are not only minimizers of distance, but they are also the curves of zero geodesic (sideways) curvature. It turns out that this property makes patterns of geodesics the basic geometric entity when dealing with the cladding of a freeform surface with wooden panels which do not bend sideways. Likewise a geodesic is the favored shape of timber support elements in freeform architecture, for reasons of manufacturing and statics. Both problem areas are fundamental in freeform architecture, but so far only experimental solutions have been available. This paper provides a systematic treatment and shows how to design geodesic patterns in different ways: The evolution of geodesic curves is good for local studies and simple patterns; the level set formulation can deal with the global layout of multiple patterns of geodesics; finally geodesic vector fields allow us to interactively model geodesic patterns and perform surface segmentation into panelizable parts. © 2010 ACM.

  1. Geodesic patterns

    KAUST Repository

    Pottmann, Helmut

    2010-07-26

    Geodesic curves in surfaces are not only minimizers of distance, but they are also the curves of zero geodesic (sideways) curvature. It turns out that this property makes patterns of geodesics the basic geometric entity when dealing with the cladding of a freeform surface with wooden panels which do not bend sideways. Likewise a geodesic is the favored shape of timber support elements in freeform architecture, for reasons of manufacturing and statics. Both problem areas are fundamental in freeform architecture, but so far only experimental solutions have been available. This paper provides a systematic treatment and shows how to design geodesic patterns in different ways: The evolution of geodesic curves is good for local studies and simple patterns; the level set formulation can deal with the global layout of multiple patterns of geodesics; finally geodesic vector fields allow us to interactively model geodesic patterns and perform surface segmentation into panelizable parts. © 2010 ACM.

  2. Population migration and the spread of types 1 and 2 human immunodeficiency viruses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinn, T C

    1994-03-29

    Over 14 million people are estimated to be infected with the human immunodeficiency viruses (HIV), with nearly three-fourths of the infected persons residing in developing countries. One factor responsible for dissemination of both HIV-1 and HIV-2 worldwide was the intense migration of individuals, from rural to urban centers with subsequent return migration and internationally due to civil wars, tourism, business purposes, and the drug trade. In sub-Saharan Africa, between 1960 and 1980, urban centers with more than 500,000 inhabitants increased from 3 to 28, and more than 75 military coups occurred in 30 countries. The result was a massive migration of rural inhabitants to urban centers concomitant with the spread of HIV-1 to large population centers. With the associated demographic, economic, and social changes, an epidemic of sexually transmitted diseases and HIV-1 was ignited. Migratory patterns were also responsible for the spread of endemic HIV-2 to neighboring West African countries and eventually to Europe, the Americans, and India. Although Southeast Asia was the last region in which HIV-1 was introduced, it has the greatest potential for rapid spread due to population density and inherent risk behaviors. Thus, the migration of poor, rural, and young sexually active individuals to urban centers coupled with large international movements of HIV-infected individuals played a prominent role in the dissemination of HIV globally. The economic recession has aggravated the transmission of HIV by directly increasing the population at risk through increased urban migration, disruption of rural families and cultural values, poverty, and prostitution and indirectly through a decrease in health care provision. Consequently, social and economic reform as well as sexual behavior education need to be intensified if HIV transmission is to be controlled.

  3. SCOR Working Group 137: "Global Patterns of Phytoplankton Dynamics in Coastal Ecosystems": An introduction to the special issue of Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paerl, Hans W.; Yin, Kedong; O'Brien, Todd D.

    2015-09-01

    Phytoplankton form the base of most aquatic food webs and play a central role in assimilation and processing of carbon and nutrients, including nitrogen, phosphorus, silicon, iron and a wide range of trace elements (Reynolds, 2006). In the marine environment, estuarine and coastal ecosystems (jointly termed coastal here) are among the most productive, resourceful and dynamic habitats on Earth (Malone et al., 1999; Day et al., 2012). These ecosystems constitute only ∼10% of the global oceans' surface, but account for over 30% of its primary production (Day et al., 2012). They process vast amounts of nutrients, sediments, carbonaceous, and xenobiotic compounds generated in coastal watersheds, in which approximately 70% of the world's human population resides (Nixon, 1995; Vitousek et al., 1997; NOAA, 2013). Estuarine and coastal ecosystems are also strongly influenced by localized nutrient enrichment from coastal upwelling, with major impacts on the structure and function of phytoplankton communities and the food webs they support (Legendre and Rassoulzadegan, 2012; Paerl and Justić, 2012). In addition, introductions and invasions of exotic plant and animal species have led to significant "top down" mediated changes in phytoplankton community structure and function (Carlton, 1999; Thompson, 2005). Lastly, the coastal zone is the "front line" of climatically-induced environmental change, including warming, altered rainfall patterns, intensities and magnitudes (Trenberth, 2005; IPCC, 2012), which jointly impact phytoplankton community structure and function (Cloern and Jassby, 2012; Hall et al., 2013). The combined effects of these pressures translate into a myriad of changes in phytoplankton production and community structure along geomorphological and geographic gradients (Fig. 1), with cascading quantitative and qualitative impacts on biogeochemical cycling, food web structure and function, water quality and overall resourcefulness and sustainability of these

  4. Spread of Zika virus in the Americas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qian; Sun, Kaiyuan; Chinazzi, Matteo; Pastore Y Piontti, Ana; Dean, Natalie E; Rojas, Diana Patricia; Merler, Stefano; Mistry, Dina; Poletti, Piero; Rossi, Luca; Bray, Margaret; Halloran, M Elizabeth; Longini, Ira M; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2017-05-30

    We use a data-driven global stochastic epidemic model to analyze the spread of the Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Americas. The model has high spatial and temporal resolution and integrates real-world demographic, human mobility, socioeconomic, temperature, and vector density data. We estimate that the first introduction of ZIKV to Brazil likely occurred between August 2013 and April 2014 (90% credible interval). We provide simulated epidemic profiles of incident ZIKV infections for several countries in the Americas through February 2017. The ZIKV epidemic is characterized by slow growth and high spatial and seasonal heterogeneity, attributable to the dynamics of the mosquito vector and to the characteristics and mobility of the human populations. We project the expected timing and number of pregnancies infected with ZIKV during the first trimester and provide estimates of microcephaly cases assuming different levels of risk as reported in empirical retrospective studies. Our approach represents a modeling effort aimed at understanding the potential magnitude and timing of the ZIKV epidemic and it can be potentially used as a template for the analysis of future mosquito-borne epidemics.

  5. Spreading Culture on Quantum Entanglement and Consciousness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nobili, G.; Teodorani, M.

    The subject of "quantum entanglement" in general doesn't seem to be particularly considered in Europe in the form of popularizing books or of educational physics projects. These authors have started to spread out this kind of scientific culture in both forms, including popularizing seminars too. Concerning the entanglement phenomenon, recently, new thought experiments have been outlined, new laboratory results have come out in the form of real discoveries in quantum optics, new studies on "bio-entanglement" and 'global consciousness effects' have been carried out, and very sophisticated new ideas have been developed in the fields of quantum physics, biophysics, cosmology and epistemology. These authors intend to show their effort of diffusing widely this growing scientific knowledge. Beyond all this there is a long-term strategy aimed at inculcating new concepts in physics in order to trigger the interest of scholars at all levels, in that which is probably the most innovative and interdisciplinary subject of the human knowledge of this new millennium.

  6. Spread of Traditional Medicines in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srinivasan, R.; Sugumar, V. Raji

    2015-01-01

    For the first time, we have a comprehensive database on usage of AYUSH (acronym for Ayurveda, naturopathy and Yoga, Unani, Siddha, and Homeopathy) in India at the household level. This article aims at exploring the spread of the traditional medical systems in India and the perceptions of people on the access and effectiveness of these medical systems using this database. The article uses the unit level data purchased from the National Sample Survey Organization, New Delhi. Household is the basic unit of survey and the data are the collective opinion of the household. This survey shows that less than 30% of Indian households use the traditional medical systems. There is also a regional pattern in the usage of particular type of traditional medicine, reflecting the regional aspects of the development of such medical systems. The strong faith in AYUSH is the main reason for its usage; lack of need for AYUSH and lack of awareness about AYUSH are the main reasons for not using it. With regard to source of medicines in the traditional medical systems, home is the main source in the Indian medical system and private sector is the main source in Homeopathy. This shows that there is need for creating awareness and improving access to traditional medical systems in India. By and large, the users of AYUSH are also convinced about the effectiveness of these traditional medicines. PMID:26438717

  7. Perineural spread in head and neck tumors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brea Álvarez, B; Tuñón Gómez, M

    2014-01-01

    Perineural spread is the dissemination of some types of head and neck tumors along nervous structures. Perineural spread has negative repercussions on treatment because it requires more extensive resection and larger fields of irradiation. Moreover, perineural spread is associated with increased local recurrence, and it is considered an independent indicator of poor prognosis in the TNM classification for tumor staging. However, perineural spread often goes undetected on imaging studies. In this update, we review the concept of perineural spread, its pathogenesis, and the main pathways and connections among the facial nerves, which are essential to understand this process. Furthermore, we discuss the appropriate techniques for imaging studies, and we describe and illustrate the typical imaging signs that help identify perineural spread on CT and MRI. Finally, we discuss the differential diagnosis with other entities. Copyright © 2013 SERAM. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  8. [Globalization and infectious diseases].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirski, Tomasz; Bartoszcze, Michał; Bielawska-Drózd, Agata

    2011-01-01

    Globalization is a phenomenon characteristic of present times. It can be considered in various aspects: economic, environmental changes, demographic changes, as well as the development of new technologies. All these aspects of globalization have a definite influence on the emergence and spread of infectious diseases. Economic aspects ofglobalization are mainly the trade development, including food trade, which has an impact on the spread of food-borne diseases. The environmental changes caused by intensive development of industry, as a result of globalization, which in turn affects human health. The demographic changes are mainly people migration between countries and rural and urban areas, which essentially favors the global spread of many infectious diseases. While technological advances prevents the spread of infections, for example through better access to information, it may also increase the risk, for example through to create opportunities to travel into more world regions, including the endemic regions for various diseases. The phenomenon ofglobalization is also closely associated with the threat of terrorism, including bioterrorism. It forces the governments of many countries to develop effective programs to protect and fight against this threat.

  9. The Global Internet Pandemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, Deborah Joy

    2009-01-01

    The global rise of Internet-based education is discussed in relation to models drawn from social studies and epidemiology. Experiential and data density models are highlighted, also the capacity for technological change, and phenomena observed in the spread of disease. The lesson of these illustrations is that even apparently permanent phenomena…

  10. The global warming scare

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sunavala, P.D.

    1992-01-01

    It is argued that the present propaganda about the global warming with its disastrous consequences is a scare spread by some First World countries, especially the United States, to prevent the rapid industrialization of developing third world countries. (author). 6 refs., 1 tab

  11. Global Delivery Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manning, Stephan; Møller Larsen, Marcus; Bharati, Pratyush

    -zone spread allowing for 24/7 service delivery and access to resources. Based on comprehensive data we show that providers are likely to establish GDM configurations when clients value access to globally distributed talent pools and speed of service delivery, and in particular when services are highly...

  12. MIMO Based Eigen-Space Spreading

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Eltawil, Ahmed

    2004-01-01

    .... Combination of this powerful technique with orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) based modulation and traditional time and frequency spreading techniques results in a highly secure mode of communications...

  13. COMBINED SURGERY OF SPREAD THYROID CANCER

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Zh. Brzhezovsky

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Results of treating of 99 patients with differentiated thyroid cancer spreading beyond the capsule of the organ were analysed. In most cases with spreading the tumor to the tracheal rings performing of organ-preserving operations (from “window-like” tracheal resections to circular tracheal resection with intertracheal anastomosis is possible. Choosing of type of operation to be performed depends on localisation and spread of tumor invasion of trachea, pharynx and esophagus. Using of combined operations in patients with locally-spread thyroid cancer allows to achieve long and stable remission in most of the cases.

  14. Energy Spread Sources in TESLA and TTF

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mosnier, A.; Tessier, J.M.

    1995-03-01

    The beam energy spread in the TESLA linac must be small enough to limit the emittance dilution due to the dispersive effects. This report summarizes the major sources of energy spread both for the TESLA linac and the TTF linac, where these estimations will be carefully checked with beam experiments. The first part recalls the intra-bunch energy spread while the second part looks into the bunch-to-bunch energy spread induced by rf field fluctuations within the bunch train and from pulse-to-pulse. (author). 3 refs., 4 figs

  15. The Impact of Indonesia Sovereign Credit Rating Upgrades and Investment Grade Status on the Sovereign Spread Changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dwi Anggi Novianti

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Getting sovereign credit rating upgrades and achieving investment grade status are main goals for countries in order to gain lower yield spread and cost of borrowing. By using ordinary least square method, this research is aimed to analyze the impact of Indonesia sovereign credit rating up-grade and investment grade status on sovereign spread changes. The result shows that the sovereign credit rating upgrades within speculative grade category and investment grade status for Indonesia do not significantly impact sovereign spread reduction. On the other hand, the global condition, especially global risk appetite, has significant impact to Indonesia sovereign yield spread. The research also indicates that Indonesia macroeconomic fundamentals do not significantly explain the movement of sovereign yield spread. Keywords: Yield spread, sovereign credit rating, investment grade, Indonesia

  16. Olive oil in food spreads

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Blanco Muñoz, Miguel A.

    2004-03-01

    Full Text Available Chemical hydrogenation of unsaturated fatty acids is a commonly applied reaction to food industries. The process may imply the movement of double bonds in their positions on the fatty acid carbon chain, producing positional and geometrical isomers ( trans fatty acids. Through hydrogenation, unsaturated oils are converted to margarines and vegetable shortenings. The presence of trans fatty acids in foods is undesirable, as trans fatty acids raise the plasma levels of total and low-density lipoproteins (LDL, while decrease the plasma level of high-density lipoproteins (HDL, among other effects. The use of olive oil to prepare fat spread opens new insights into the commercial development of healthy novel foods with a positive image in terms of consumer appeal.La hidrogenación química de los ácidos grasos insaturados es una reacción que se utiliza con frecuencia en la industria alimentaria. El proceso implica el movimiento de los dobles enlaces en la cadena hidrocarbonada de los ácidos grasos, y la aparición de isómeros posicionales y geométricos (ácidos grasos trans . La ingesta inadecuada de alimentos que pueden contener cantidades significativas de ácidos grasos trans se asocia con el aumento en sangre de colesterol total y LDL, y la disminución de HDL, entre otros efectos. Por lo tanto, el uso de aceite de oliva en la preparación de grasas para untar constituye un importante avance en el desarrollo comercial de nuevos alimentos saludables con una imagen positiva para el consumidor.

  17. Anomalous diffusion spreads its wings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klafter, J. [School of Chemistry, Tel Aviv University, Tel-Aviv (Israel)]. E-mail: klafter@post.tau.ac.il; Sokolov, I.M. [Institute of Physics, Humboldt University, Berlin (Germany)]. E-mail: igor.sokolov@physik.hu-berlin.de

    2005-08-01

    An increasing number of natural phenomena do not fit into the relatively simple description of diffusion developed by Einstein a century ago. As all of us are no doubt aware, this year has been declared 'world year of physics' to celebrate the three remarkable breakthroughs made by Albert Einstein in 1905. However, it is not so well known that Einstein's work on Brownian motion - the random motion of tiny particles first observed and investigated by the botanist Robert Brown in 1827 - has been cited more times in the scientific literature than his more famous papers on special relativity and the quantum nature of light. In a series of publications that included his doctoral thesis, Einstein derived an equation for Brownian motion from microscopic principles - a feat that ultimately enabled Jean Perrin and others to prove the existence of atoms (see 'Einstein's random walk' Physics World January pp19-22). Einstein was not the only person thinking about this type of problem. The 27 July 1905 issue of Nature contained a letter with the title 'The problem of the random walk' by the British statistician Karl Pearson, who was interested in the way that mosquitoes spread malaria, which he showed was described by the well-known diffusion equation. As such, the displacement of a mosquito from its initial position is proportional to the square root of time, and the distribution of the positions of many such 'random walkers' starting from the same origin is Gaussian in form. The random walk has since turned out to be intimately linked to Einstein's work on Brownian motion, and has become a major tool for understanding diffusive processes in nature. (U.K.)

  18. Risk spreading, connectivity, and optimal reserve spacing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blowes, Shane A; Connolly, Sean R

    2012-01-01

    Two important processes determining the dynamics of spatially structured populations are dispersal and the spatial covariance of demographic fluctuations. Spatially explicit approaches to conservation, such as reserve networks, must consider the tension between these two processes and reach a balance between distances near enough to maintain connectivity, but far enough to benefit from risk spreading. Here, we model this trade-off. We show how two measures of metapopulation persistence depend on the shape of the dispersal kernel and the shape of the distance decay in demographic covariance, and we consider the implications of this trade-off for reserve spacing. The relative rates of distance decay in dispersal and demographic covariance determine whether the long-run metapopulation growth rate, and quasi-extinction risk, peak for adjacent patches or intermediately spaced patches; two local maxima in metapopulation persistence are also possible. When dispersal itself fluctuates over time, the trade-off changes. Temporal variation in mean distance that propagules are dispersed (i.e., propagule advection) decreases metapopulation persistence and decreases the likelihood that persistence will peak for adjacent patches. Conversely, variation in diffusion (the extent of random spread around mean dispersal) increases metapopulation persistence overall and causes it to peak at shorter inter-patch distances. Thus, failure to consider temporal variation in dispersal processes increases the risk that reserve spacings will fail to meet the objective of ensuring metapopulation persistence. This study identifies two phenomena that receive relatively little attention in empirical work on reserve spacing, but that can qualitatively change the effectiveness of reserve spacing strategies: (1) the functional form of the distance decay in covariance among patch-specific demographic rates and (2) temporal variation in the shape of the dispersal kernel. The sensitivity of metapopulation

  19. Modelling the introduction and spread of non-native species: international trade and climate change drive ragweed invasion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, Daniel S; Makra, László; Albertini, Roberto; Bonini, Maira; Páldy, Anna; Rodinkova, Victoria; Šikoparija, Branko; Weryszko-Chmielewska, Elżbieta; Bullock, James M

    2016-09-01

    Biological invasions are a major driver of global change, for which models can attribute causes, assess impacts and guide management. However, invasion models typically focus on spread from known introduction points or non-native distributions and ignore the transport processes by which species arrive. Here, we developed a simulation model to understand and describe plant invasion at a continental scale, integrating repeated transport through trade pathways, unintentional release events and the population dynamics and local anthropogenic dispersal that drive subsequent spread. We used the model to simulate the invasion of Europe by common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia), a globally invasive plant that causes serious harm as an aeroallergen and crop weed. Simulations starting in 1950 accurately reproduced ragweed's current distribution, including the presence of records in climatically unsuitable areas as a result of repeated introduction. Furthermore, the model outputs were strongly correlated with spatial and temporal patterns of ragweed pollen concentrations, which are fully independent of the calibration data. The model suggests that recent trends for warmer summers and increased volumes of international trade have accelerated the ragweed invasion. For the latter, long distance dispersal because of trade within the invaded continent is highlighted as a key invasion process, in addition to import from the native range. Biosecurity simulations, whereby transport through trade pathways is halted, showed that effective control is only achieved by early action targeting all relevant pathways. We conclude that invasion models would benefit from integrating introduction processes (transport and release) with spread dynamics, to better represent propagule pressure from native sources as well as mechanisms for long-distance dispersal within invaded continents. Ultimately, such integration may facilitate better prediction of spatial and temporal variation in invasion

  20. Warning signals for eruptive events in spreading fires.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Jerome M; Whitesides, George M

    2015-02-24

    Spreading fires are noisy (and potentially chaotic) systems in which transitions in dynamics are notoriously difficult to predict. As flames move through spatially heterogeneous environments, sudden shifts in temperature, wind, or topography can generate combustion instabilities, or trigger self-stabilizing feedback loops, that dramatically amplify the intensities and rates with which fires propagate. Such transitions are rarely captured by predictive models of fire behavior and, thus, complicate efforts in fire suppression. This paper describes a simple, remarkably instructive physical model for examining the eruption of small flames into intense, rapidly moving flames stabilized by feedback between wind and fire (i.e., "wind-fire coupling"-a mechanism of feedback particularly relevant to forest fires), and it presents evidence that characteristic patterns in the dynamics of spreading flames indicate when such transitions are likely to occur. In this model system, flames propagate along strips of nitrocellulose with one of two possible modes of propagation: a slow, structured mode, and a fast, unstructured mode sustained by wind-fire coupling. Experimental examination of patterns in dynamics that emerge near bifurcation points suggests that symptoms of critical slowing down (i.e., the slowed recovery of the system from perturbations as it approaches tipping points) warn of impending transitions to the unstructured mode. Findings suggest that slowing responses of spreading flames to sudden changes in environment (e.g., wind, terrain, temperature) may anticipate the onset of intense, feedback-stabilized modes of propagation (e.g., "blowup fires" in forests).

  1. Spread of dwarf mistletoe from discrete seed sources into young stands of ponderosa and Jeffrey pines

    Science.gov (United States)

    J. R. Parmeter Jr.

    1972-01-01

    The maximum distance of spread of dwarf mistletoes from isolated overstory pines into surrounding reproduction averages 120 feet. The rate of infection in young trees declined as distance from the seed source increased and was generally greatest in the direction of prevailing winds. This pattern of infection was similar to the previously reported pattern of seed...

  2. Spreading to localized targets in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Ye; Ma, Long; Zeng, An; Wang, Wen-Xu

    2016-12-01

    As an important type of dynamics on complex networks, spreading is widely used to model many real processes such as the epidemic contagion and information propagation. One of the most significant research questions in spreading is to rank the spreading ability of nodes in the network. To this end, substantial effort has been made and a variety of effective methods have been proposed. These methods usually define the spreading ability of a node as the number of finally infected nodes given that the spreading is initialized from the node. However, in many real cases such as advertising and news propagation, the spreading only aims to cover a specific group of nodes. Therefore, it is necessary to study the spreading ability of nodes towards localized targets in complex networks. In this paper, we propose a reversed local path algorithm for this problem. Simulation results show that our method outperforms the existing methods in identifying the influential nodes with respect to these localized targets. Moreover, the influential spreaders identified by our method can effectively avoid infecting the non-target nodes in the spreading process.

  3. Epidemic spreading through direct and indirect interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganguly, Niloy; Krueger, Tyll; Mukherjee, Animesh; Saha, Sudipta

    2014-09-01

    In this paper we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic dynamics, considering a specialized setting where popular places (termed passive entities) are visited by agents (termed active entities). We consider two types of spreading dynamics: direct spreading, where the active entities infect each other while visiting the passive entities, and indirect spreading, where the passive entities act as carriers and the infection is spread via them. We investigate in particular the effect of selection strategy, i.e., the way passive entities are chosen, in the spread of epidemics. We introduce a mathematical framework to study the effect of an arbitrary selection strategy and derive formulas for prevalence, extinction probabilities, and epidemic thresholds for both indirect and direct spreading. We also obtain a very simple relationship between the extinction probability and the prevalence. We pay special attention to preferential selection and derive exact formulas. The analysis reveals that an increase in the diversity in the selection process lowers the epidemic thresholds. Comparing the direct and indirect spreading, we identify regions in the parameter space where the prevalence of the indirect spreading is higher than the direct one.

  4. Fluorescent visualization of a spreading surfactant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fallest, David W; Lichtenberger, Adele M; Fox, Christopher J; Daniels, Karen E, E-mail: kdaniel@ncsu.ed [Department of Physics, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695 (United States)

    2010-07-15

    The spreading of surfactants on thin films is an industrially and medically important phenomenon, but the dynamics are highly nonlinear and visualization of the surfactant dynamics has been a long-standing experimental challenge. We perform the first quantitative, spatiotemporally resolved measurements of the spreading of an insoluble surfactant on a thin fluid layer. During the spreading process, we directly observe both the radial height profile of the spreading droplet and the spatial distribution of the fluorescently tagged surfactant. We find that the leading edge of a spreading circular layer of surfactant forms a Marangoni ridge in the underlying fluid, with a trough trailing the ridge as expected. However, several novel features are observed using the fluorescence technique, including a peak in the surfactant concentration that trails the leading edge, and a flat, monolayer-scale spreading film that differs from concentration profiles predicted by current models. Both the Marangoni ridge and the surfactant leading edge can be described to spread as R{approx}t{sup {delta}}. We find spreading exponents {delta}{sub H}{approx}0.30 and {delta}{sub {Gamma}}{approx}0.22 for the ridge peak and surfactant leading edge, respectively, which are in good agreement with theoretical predictions of {delta}=1/4. In addition, we observe that the surfactant leading edge initially leads the peak of the Marangoni ridge, with the peak later catching up to the leading edge.

  5. Age, spreading rates, and spreading asymmetry of the world's ocean crust

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The authors present four companion digital models of the age, age uncertainty, spreading rates and spreading asymmetries of the world's ocean basins as geographic...

  6. Human mobility and time spent at destination: impact on spatial epidemic spreading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poletto, Chiara; Tizzoni, Michele; Colizza, Vittoria

    2013-12-07

    Host mobility plays a fundamental role in the spatial spread of infectious diseases. Previous theoretical works based on the integration of network theory into the metapopulation framework have shown that the heterogeneities that characterize real mobility networks favor the propagation of epidemics. Nevertheless, the studies conducted so far assumed the mobility process to be either Markovian (in which the memory of the origin of each traveler is lost) or non-Markovian with a fixed traveling time scale (in which individuals travel to a destination and come back at a constant rate). Available statistics however show that the time spent by travelers at destination is characterized by wide fluctuations, ranging from a single day up to several months. Such varying length of stay crucially affects the chance and duration of mixing events among hosts and may therefore have a strong impact on the spread of an emerging disease. Here, we present an analytical and a computational study of epidemic processes on a complex subpopulation network where travelers have memory of their origin and spend a heterogeneously distributed time interval at their destination. Through analytical calculations and numerical simulations we show that the heterogeneity of the length of stay alters the expression of the threshold between local outbreak and global invasion, and, moreover, it changes the epidemic behavior of the system in case of a global outbreak. Additionally, our theoretical framework allows us to study the effect of changes in the traveling behavior in response to the infection, by considering a scenario in which sick individuals do not leave their home location. Finally, we compare the results of our non-Markovian framework with those obtained with a classic Markovian approach and find relevant differences between the two, in the estimate of the epidemic invasion potential, as well as of the timing and the pattern of its spatial spread. These results highlight the importance of

  7. Spread and Liquidity Issues: A markets comparison

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Strašek Sebastjan

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The financial crises are closely connected with spread changes and liquidity issues. After defining and addressing spread considerations, we research in this paper the topic of liquidity issues in times of economic crisis. We analyse the liquidity effects as recorded on spreads of securities from different markets. We stipulate that higher international risk aversion in times of financial crises coincides with widening security spreads. The paper then introduces liquidity as a risk factor into the standard value-at-risk framework, using GARCH methodology. The comparison of results of these models suggests that the size of the tested markets does not have a strong effect on the models. Thus, we find that spread analysis is an appropriate tool for analysing liquidity issues during a financial crisis.

  8. Globalization, culture and psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melluish, Steve

    2014-10-01

    This article outlines the cultural and psychological effects of globalization. It looks at the impact of globalization on identity; ideas of privacy and intimacy; the way we understand and perceive psychological distress; and the development of the profession of psychology around the world. The article takes a critical perspective on globalization, seeing it as aligned with the spread of neoliberal capitalism, a tendency towards cultural homogenization, the imposition of dominant 'global north' ideas and the resultant growing inequalities in health and well-being. However, it also argues that the increased interconnectedness created by globalization allows for greater acknowledgement of our common humanity and for collective efforts to be developed to tackle what are increasingly global problems. This requires the development of more nuanced understandings of cultural differences and of indigenous psychologies.

  9. Globalization and disease: in an unequal world, unequal health!

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Buss Paulo Marchiori

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, originally presented at an event held by the National Institutes of Health (NIH in the United States, the author analyzes the repercussions of globalization on various health aspects: the spread of infectious and parasitic diseases, bioterrorism, and new behavioral patterns in health, among others. He goes on to examine the positive and negative effects of international agreements on health, particularly in the trade area, including the TRIPS Agreement on medicines in the area of public health. The paper concludes that the resumption of cooperation among nations is the best way to achieve world progress in public health.

  10. Epidemic spreading between two coupled subpopulations with inner structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruan, Zhongyuan; Tang, Ming; Gu, Changgui; Xu, Jinshan

    2017-10-01

    The structure of underlying contact network and the mobility of agents are two decisive factors for epidemic spreading in reality. Here, we study a model consisting of two coupled subpopulations with intra-structures that emphasizes both the contact structure and the recurrent mobility pattern of individuals simultaneously. We show that the coupling of the two subpopulations (via interconnections between them and round trips of individuals) makes the epidemic threshold in each subnetwork to be the same. Moreover, we find that the interconnection probability between two subpopulations and the travel rate are important factors for spreading dynamics. In particular, as a function of interconnection probability, the epidemic threshold in each subpopulation decreases monotonously, which enhances the risks of an epidemic. While the epidemic threshold displays a non-monotonic variation as travel rate increases. Moreover, the asymptotic infected density as a function of travel rate in each subpopulation behaves differently depending on the interconnection probability.

  11. Lateral spread affects nitrogen leaching from urine patches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cichota, Rogerio; Vogeler, Iris; Snow, Val; Shepherd, Mark; McAuliffe, Russell; Welten, Brendon

    2018-09-01

    Nitrate leaching from urine deposited by grazing animals is a critical constraint for sustainable dairy farming in New Zealand. While considerable progress has been made to understand the fate of nitrogen (N) under urine patches, little consideration has been given to the spread of urinary N beyond the wetted area. In this study, we modelled the lateral spread of nitrogen from the wetted area of a urine patch to the soil outside the patch using a combination of two process-based models (HYDRUS and APSIM). The simulations provided insights on the extent and temporal pattern for the redistribution of N in the soil following a urine deposition and enabled investigating the effect of lateral spread of urinary N on plant growth and N leaching. The APSIM simulation, using an implementation of a dispersion-diffusion function, was tested against experimental data from a field experiment conducted in spring on a well-d