WorldWideScience

Sample records for global seasonality score

  1. Global Seasonality of Rotavirus Disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Manish M.; Pitzer, Virginia; Alonso, Wladimir J.; Vera, David; Lopman, Ben; Tate, Jacqueline; Viboud, Cecile; Parashar, Umesh D.

    2012-01-01

    Background A substantial number of surveillance studies have documented rotavirus prevalence among children admitted for dehydrating diarrhea. We sought to establish global seasonal patterns of rotavirus disease before widespread vaccine introduction. Methods We reviewed studies of rotavirus detection in children with diarrhea published since 1995. We assessed potential relationships between seasonal prevalence and locality by plotting the average monthly proportion of diarrhea cases positive for rotavirus according to geography, country development, and latitude. We used linear regression to identify variables that were potentially associated with the seasonal intensity of rotavirus. Results Among a total of 99 studies representing all six geographical regions of the world, patterns of year-round disease were more evident in low- and low-middle income countries compared with upper-middle and high income countries where disease was more likely to be seasonal. The level of country development was a stronger predictor of strength of seasonality (P=0.001) than geographical location or climate. However, the observation of distinctly different seasonal patterns of rotavirus disease in some countries with similar geographical location, climate and level of development indicate that a single unifying explanation for variation in seasonality of rotavirus disease is unlikely. Conclusion While no unifying explanation emerged for varying rotavirus seasonality globally, the country income level was somewhat more predictive of the likelihood of having seasonal disease than other factors. Future evaluation of the effect of rotavirus vaccination on seasonal patterns of disease in different settings may help understand factors that drive the global seasonality of rotavirus disease. PMID:23190782

  2. Integrating Seasonal Oscillations into Basel II Behavioural Scoring Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goran Klepac

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available The article introduces a new methodology of temporal influence measurement (seasonal oscillations, temporal patterns for behavioural scoring development purposes. The paper shows how significant temporal variables can be recognised and then integrated into the behavioural scoring models in order to improve model performance. Behavioural scoring models are integral parts of the Basel II standard on Internal Ratings-Based Approaches (IRB. The IRB approach much more precisely reflects individual risk bank profile.A solution of the problem of how to analyze and integrate macroeconomic and microeconomic factors represented in time series into behavioural scorecard models will be shown in the paper by using the REF II model.

  3. Seasonality of Kawasaki Disease: A Global Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, Jane C.; Herzog, Lauren; Fabri, Olivia; Tremoulet, Adriana H.; Rodó, Xavier; Uehara, Ritei; Burgner, David; Bainto, Emelia; Pierce, David; Tyree, Mary; Cayan, Daniel

    2013-01-01

    Background Understanding global seasonal patterns of Kawasaki disease (KD) may provide insight into the etiology of this vasculitis that is now the most common cause of acquired heart disease in children in developed countries worldwide. Methods Data from 1970-2012 from 25 countries distributed over the globe were analyzed for seasonality. The number of KD cases from each location was normalized to minimize the influence of greater numbers from certain locations. The presence of seasonal variation of KD at the individual locations was evaluated using three different tests: time series modeling, spectral analysis, and a Monte Carlo technique. Results A defined seasonal structure emerged demonstrating broad coherence in fluctuations in KD cases across the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical latitudes. In the extra-tropical latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, KD case numbers were highest in January through March and approximately 40% higher than in the months of lowest case numbers from August through October. Datasets were much sparser in the tropics and the Southern Hemisphere extra-tropics and statistical significance of the seasonality tests was weak, but suggested a maximum in May through June, with approximately 30% higher number of cases than in the least active months of February, March and October. The seasonal pattern in the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics was consistent across the first and second halves of the sample period. Conclusion Using the first global KD time series, analysis of sites located in the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics revealed statistically significant and consistent seasonal fluctuations in KD case numbers with high numbers in winter and low numbers in late summer and fall. Neither the tropics nor the Southern Hemisphere extra-tropics registered a statistically significant aggregate seasonal cycle. These data suggest a seasonal exposure to a KD agent that operates over large geographic regions and is concentrated during winter

  4. A global empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eden, J. M.; van Oldenborgh, G. J.; Hawkins, E.; Suckling, E. B.

    2015-12-01

    Preparing for episodes with risks of anomalous weather a month to a year ahead is an important challenge for governments, non-governmental organisations, and private companies and is dependent on the availability of reliable forecasts. The majority of operational seasonal forecasts are made using process-based dynamical models, which are complex, computationally challenging and prone to biases. Empirical forecast approaches built on statistical models to represent physical processes offer an alternative to dynamical systems and can provide either a benchmark for comparison or independent supplementary forecasts. Here, we present a simple empirical system based on multiple linear regression for producing probabilistic forecasts of seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation across the globe. The global CO2-equivalent concentration is taken as the primary predictor; subsequent predictors, including large-scale modes of variability in the climate system and local-scale information, are selected on the basis of their physical relationship with the predictand. The focus given to the climate change signal as a source of skill and the probabilistic nature of the forecasts produced constitute a novel approach to global empirical prediction. Hindcasts for the period 1961-2013 are validated against observations using deterministic (correlation of seasonal means) and probabilistic (continuous rank probability skill scores) metrics. Good skill is found in many regions, particularly for surface air temperature and most notably in much of Europe during the spring and summer seasons. For precipitation, skill is generally limited to regions with known El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections. The system is used in a quasi-operational framework to generate empirical seasonal forecasts on a monthly basis.

  5. GloFAS-Seasonal: Operational Seasonal Ensemble River Flow Forecasts at the Global Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emerton, Rebecca; Zsoter, Ervin; Smith, Paul; Salamon, Peter

    2017-04-01

    Seasonal hydrological forecasting has potential benefits for many sectors, including agriculture, water resources management and humanitarian aid. At present, no global scale seasonal hydrological forecasting system exists operationally; although smaller scale systems have begun to emerge around the globe over the past decade, a system providing consistent global scale seasonal forecasts would be of great benefit in regions where no other forecasting system exists, and to organisations operating at the global scale, such as disaster relief. We present here a new operational global ensemble seasonal hydrological forecast, currently under development at ECMWF as part of the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). The proposed system, which builds upon the current version of GloFAS, takes the long-range forecasts from the ECMWF System4 ensemble seasonal forecast system (which incorporates the HTESSEL land surface scheme) and uses this runoff as input to the Lisflood routing model, producing a seasonal river flow forecast out to 4 months lead time, for the global river network. The seasonal forecasts will be evaluated using the global river discharge reanalysis, and observations where available, to determine the potential value of the forecasts across the globe. The seasonal forecasts will be presented as a new layer in the GloFAS interface, which will provide a global map of river catchments, indicating whether the catchment-averaged discharge forecast is showing abnormally high or low flows during the 4-month lead time. Each catchment will display the corresponding forecast as an ensemble hydrograph of the weekly-averaged discharge forecast out to 4 months, with percentile thresholds shown for comparison with the discharge climatology. The forecast visualisation is based on a combination of the current medium-range GloFAS forecasts and the operational EFAS (European Flood Awareness System) seasonal outlook, and aims to effectively communicate the nature of a seasonal

  6. Thrombotic risk assessment in APS: the Global APS Score (GAPSS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sciascia, S; Bertolaccini, M L

    2014-10-01

    Recently, we developed a risk score for antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) (Global APS Score or GAPSS). This score derived from the combination of independent risk factors for thrombosis and pregnancy loss, taking into account the antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL) profile (criteria and non-criteria aPL), the conventional cardiovascular risk factors, and the autoimmune antibodies profile. We demonstrate that risk profile in APS can be successfully assessed, suggesting that GAPSS can be a potential quantitative marker of APS-related clinical manifestations. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

  7. Reliability of scored patient generated subjective global assessment ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objective: Establish the reliability of the scored Patient Generated-Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA) in determining nutritional status among Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) naive HIV-infected adults. Methods: A descriptive, cross sectional study among outpatient medical clinics, in The AIDS Support Organization ...

  8. Responses of Seasonal Precipitation Intensity to Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lan, Chia-Wei; Lo, Min-Hui; Chou, Chia

    2016-04-01

    Under global warming, the water vapor increases with rising temperature at the rate of 7%/K. Most previous studies focus on the spatial differences of precipitation and suggest that wet regions become wetter and dry regions become drier. Our recent studies show a temporal disparity of global precipitation, which the wet season becomes wetter and dry season becomes drier; therefore, the annual range increases. However, such changes in the annual range are not homogeneous globally, and in fact, the drier trend over the ocean is much larger than that over the land, where the dry season does not become drier. Such precipitation change over land is likely because of decreased omega at 500hPa (more upward motion) in the reanalysis datasets from 1980 to 2013. The trends of vertical velocity and moist static energy profile over the increased precipitation regions become more unstable. The instability is most likely attributed to the change in specific humility below 400hPa. Further, we will use Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) archives to investigate whether the precipitation responses in dry season are different between the ocean and land under global warming.

  9. Scores of a web-based version of the seasonal pattern assessment questionnaire in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denis Martinez

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Seasonal affective disorder (SAD is a proposed mental disorder still controversial. This condition is prevalent in northern latitudes, but few studies have been conducted at locations in the southern hemisphere. It is usually assessed by the Seasonal Pattern Assessment Questionnaire (SPAQ. This study aimed to evaluate, through on-line questionnaire, the hypothesis that, in the Brazilian population, latitude and longitude influence SPAQ scores. Methods: An advertisement was posted on a sleep medicine website inviting visitors to investigate seasonal patterns of behavior and mood, using a Brazilian Portuguese version of the SPAQ. The geographic coordinates of the place of residence of each respondent were analyzed as a continuous variable or distributed in quartiles of latitude and longitude. The psychometric properties of the SPAQ were assessed by reliability and factor analyses. Results: Answers from 1001 respondents out of 1045 were considered eligible. High SPAQ scores were observed in 287 respondents, equally distributed among all latitude and longitude quartiles. Data collected in different seasons and during daylight saving time did not differ significantly in any of the scores for SPAQ dimensions. No correlations between SPAQ scores and latitude or longitude were observed. Psychometric properties of the SPAQ were preserved in all geographic locations. Conclusion: The finding of similar SPAQ scores at a wide latitude range defies the concept of SAD symptoms as latitude or longitude-dependent phenomena.

  10. Vivaldi's Four Seasons and the Globalization of Musical Taste

    OpenAIRE

    Pryer, Anthony J.

    2004-01-01

    "Vivaldi's Four Seasons, or at least parts of it, can be recognised by enormous numbers of people on this planet, and its sounds seem to come from almost every elevator shaft, mobile phone, restaurant and television advert in the world. It stands as the very epitome of a globalized artwork, and therefore it would be reasonable to suppose that globalization theories would be a great help in explaining its success. That this may not be the case is one of the main points of this paper -�� but be...

  11. Examining the value of global seasonal reference evapotranspiration forecasts tosupport FEWS NET's food insecurity outlooks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shukla, S.; McEvoy, D.; Hobbins, M.; Husak, G. J.; Huntington, J. L.; Funk, C.; Verdin, J.; Macharia, D.

    2017-12-01

    The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) team provides food insecurity outlooks for several developing countries in Africa, Central Asia, and Central America. Thus far in terms of agroclimatic conditions that influence food insecurity, FEWS NET's primary focus has been on the seasonal precipitation forecasts while not adequately accounting for the atmospheric evaporative demand, which is also directly related to agricultural production and hence food insecurity, and is most often estimated by reference evapotranspiration (ETo). This presentation reports on the development of a new global ETo seasonal reforecast and skill evaluation with a particular emphasis on the potential use of this dataset by the FEWS NET to support food insecurity early warning. The ETo reforecasts span the 1982-2009 period and are calculated following ASCE's formulation of Penman-Monteith method driven by seasonal climate forecasts of monthly mean temperature, humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation from NCEP's CFSv2 and NASA's GEOS-5 models. The skill evaluation using deterministic and probabilistic scores focuses on the December-February (DJF), March-May (MAM), June-August (JJA) and September-November (SON) seasons. The results indicate that ETo forecasts are a promising tool for early warning of drought and food insecurity. The FEWS NET regions with promising level of skill (correlation >0.35 at lead times of 3 months) include Northern Sub-Saharan Africa (DJF, dry season), Central America (DJF, dry season), parts of East Africa (JJA, wet Season), Southern Africa (JJA, dry season), and Central Asia (MAM, wet season). A case study over parts of East Africa for the JJA season shows that, in combination with the precipitation forecasts, ETo forecasts could have provided early warning of recent severe drought events (e.g., 2002, 2004, 2009) that contributed to substantial food insecurity in the region.

  12. Global drought outlook by means of seasonal forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziese, Markus; Fröhlich, Kristina; Rustemeier, Elke; Becker, Andreas

    2017-04-01

    Droughts are naturally occurring phenomena which are caused by a shortage of available water due to lower than normal precipitation and/or above normal evaporation. Depending on the length of the droughts, several sectors are affected starting with agriculture, then river and ground water levels and finally socio-economic losses at the long end of the spectrum of drought persistence. Droughts are extreme events that affect much larger areas and last much longer than floods, but are less geared towards media than floods being more short-scale in persistence and impacts. Finally the slow onset of droughts make the detection and early warning of their beginning difficult and time is lost for preparatory measures. Drought indices are developed to detect and classify droughts based on (meteorological) observations and possible additional information tailored to specific user needs, e.g. in agriculture, hydrology and other sectors. Not all drought indices can be utilized for global applications as not all input parameters are available at this scale. Therefore the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) developed a drought index as combination of the Standardized Drought Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), the GPCC-DI. The GPCC-DI is applied to drought monitoring and retrospective analyses on a global scale. As the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) operates a seasonal forecast system in cooperation with Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology Hamburg and University of Hamburg, these data are also used for an outlook of drought conditions by means of the GPCC-DI. The reliability of seasonal precipitation forecasts is limited, so the drought outlook is available only for forecast months two to four. Based on the GPCC-DI, DWD provides a retrospective analysis, near-real-time monitoring and outlook of drought conditions on a global scale and regular basis.

  13. Empirical Percentile Growth Curves with Z-scores Considering Seasonal Compensatory Growths for Japanese Thoroughbred Horses

    Science.gov (United States)

    ONODA, Tomoaki; YAMAMOTO, Ryuta; SAWAMURA, Kyohei; MURASE, Harutaka; NAMBO, Yasuo; INOUE, Yoshinobu; MATSUI, Akira; MIYAKE, Takeshi; HIRAI, Nobuhiro

    2013-01-01

    Percentile growth curves are often used as a clinical indicator to evaluate variations of children’s growth status. In this study, we propose empirical percentile growth curves using Z-scores adapted for Japanese Thoroughbred horses, with considerations of the seasonal compensatory growth that is a typical characteristic of seasonal breeding animals. We previously developed new growth curve equations for Japanese Thoroughbreds adjusting for compensatory growth. Individual horses and residual effects were included as random effects in the growth curve equation model and their variance components were estimated. Based on the Z-scores of the estimated variance components, empirical percentile growth curves were constructed. A total of 5,594 and 5,680 body weight and age measurements of male and female Thoroughbreds, respectively, and 3,770 withers height and age measurements were used in the analyses. The developed empirical percentile growth curves using Z-scores are computationally feasible and useful for monitoring individual growth parameters of body weight and withers height of young Thoroughbred horses, especially during compensatory growth periods. PMID:24834004

  14. Global assessment of seasonal potential distribution of Mediterranean fruit fly, Ceratitis capitata (Diptera: Tephritidae)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szyniszewska, Anna M.; Tatem, Andrew J.

    2015-01-01

    The Mediterranean fruit fly (Medfly) is one of the world's most economically damaging pests. It displays highly seasonal population dynamics, and the environmental conditions suitable for its abundance are not constant throughout the year in most places. An extensive literature search was performed to obtain the most comprehensive data on the historical and contemporary spatio-temporal occurrence of the pest globally. The database constructed contained 2328 unique geo-located entries on Medfly detection sites from 43 countries and nearly 500 unique localities, as well as information on hosts, life stages and capture method. Of these, 125 localities had information on the month when Medfly was recorded and these data were complemented by additional material found in comprehensive databases available online. Records from 1980 until present were used for medfly environmental niche modeling. Maximum Entropy Algorithm (MaxEnt) and a set of seasonally varying environmental covariates were used to predict the fundamental niche of the Medfly on a global scale. Three seasonal maps were also produced: January-April, May- August and September-December. Models performed significantly better than random achieving high accuracy scores, indicating a good discrimination of suitable versus unsuitable areas for the presence of the species. (author)

  15. The global anti-phospholipid syndrome score in primary APS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sciascia, Savino; Sanna, Giovanni; Murru, Veronica; Roccatello, Dario; Khamashta, Munther A; Bertolaccini, Maria Laura

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the clinical relevance of the global APS score (GAPSS) in a cohort of primary APS patients. This study included 62 consecutive patients with primary APS. Data on clinical manifestations, conventional cardiovascular risk factors and aPL profile were collected. The GAPSS was calculated for each patient by adding together the points corresponding to the risk factors, based on a linear transformation derived from the β regression coefficient as follows: 3 for hyperlipidaemia, 1 for arterial hypertension, 5 for aCL IgG/IgM, 4 for anti-β2 glycoprotein I IgG/IgM, 3 for aPS-PT IgG/IgM and 4 for LA. Higher GAPSS values were seen in patients who experienced thrombosis alone when compared with those with pregnancy loss alone [11.5 (S.D. 4.6) and 8.7 (S.D. 3.2), P = 0.04]. Patients with both thrombosis and pregnancy loss showed higher GAPSS than those with pregnancy loss alone [12.5 (S.D. 4.6) vs 8.7 (S.D. 3.2), P = 0.02]. Higher GAPSS values were also shown after subgrouping for the site of thrombosis when compared with pregnancy loss alone [12.2 (S.D. 5.2) for arterial thrombosis, 12.0 (S.D. 4.0) for venous vs 8.7 (S.D. 3.2), P = 0.02 and P = 0.04, respectively]. Patients with thrombotic recurrences showed higher GAPSS values when compared with those without recurrence [13.7 (S.D. 3.1) vs 9.4 (S.D. 3.9), P = 0.02]. This was also seen when comparing recurrences vs no recurrences independently of the site of the thrombotic event [13.9 (S.D. 3.6) vs 11.0 (S.D. 4.3), P = 0.01 for arterial and 13.6 (S.D. 2.18) vs 8.91 (S.D. 3.6), P APS. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  16. Associations among body condition score, body weight, and reproductive performance in seasonal-calving dairy cattle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roche, J R; Macdonald, K A; Burke, C R; Lee, J M; Berry, D P

    2007-01-01

    The objective of the present study was to identify and quantify relationships between body condition score (BCS) and body weight (BW) in dairy cows with reproduction variables in pasture-based, seasonal-calving dairy herds. Over 2,500 lactation records from 897 spring-calving Holstein-Friesian dairy cows were used in the analyses. Eleven BCS- and 11 BW-related variables were generated, including observations at calving, nadir, planned start of mating (PSM), and first service, as well as days to nadir and the amount and rate of change between periods. The binary reproductive variables were cycling by PSM, mated in the first 21 d from PSM, pregnant to first service, and pregnant in the first 21, 42, and 84 d of the seasonal mating period. Generalized estimating equations were used to identify BCS and BW variables that significantly affected the probability of a successful reproductive outcome. After adjusting for the fixed effect of year of calving, parity (for cycling by PSM only), and the interval from calving to either first service or PSM, reproductive performance was found to be significantly affected by BW or BCS at key points, and by BCS and BW change during lactation. All reproductive response measures were negatively affected when BCS and BW measures indicated an increased severity and duration of the postpartum negative energy balance. In particular, cycling by PSM was positively associated with calving BCS, whereas pregnancy at 21, 42, and 84 d post-PSM were positively associated with nadir BCS and BW gain post-PSM, and negatively associated with BCS loss between calving and nadir. The results highlight the important role that BCS and BW loss has on reproductive performance, especially in seasonal-calving dairy systems because of the short period between calving and PSM.

  17. Attribution of Large-Scale Climate Patterns to Seasonal Peak-Flow and Prospects for Prediction Globally

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Donghoon; Ward, Philip; Block, Paul

    2018-02-01

    Flood-related fatalities and impacts on society surpass those from all other natural disasters globally. While the inclusion of large-scale climate drivers in streamflow (or high-flow) prediction has been widely studied, an explicit link to global-scale long-lead prediction is lacking, which can lead to an improved understanding of potential flood propensity. Here we attribute seasonal peak-flow to large-scale climate patterns, including the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), using streamflow station observations and simulations from PCR-GLOBWB, a global-scale hydrologic model. Statistically significantly correlated climate patterns and streamflow autocorrelation are subsequently applied as predictors to build a global-scale season-ahead prediction model, with prediction performance evaluated by the mean squared error skill score (MSESS) and the categorical Gerrity skill score (GSS). Globally, fair-to-good prediction skill (20% ≤ MSESS and 0.2 ≤ GSS) is evident for a number of locations (28% of stations and 29% of land area), most notably in data-poor regions (e.g., West and Central Africa). The persistence of such relevant climate patterns can improve understanding of the propensity for floods at the seasonal scale. The prediction approach developed here lays the groundwork for further improving local-scale seasonal peak-flow prediction by identifying relevant global-scale climate patterns. This is especially attractive for regions with limited observations and or little capacity to develop flood early warning systems.

  18. Seasonal prevalence, body condition score and risk factors of bovine fasciolosis in South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ishmael Festus Jaja

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Fasciolosis is an important zoonotic disease that is responsible for a significant loss in food resource and animal productivity. The objectives of this study were to determine the seasonal prevalence and risk factors associated with Fasciola infection in cattle. The results were obtained by coprology, antemortem and post-mortem survey of three abattoirs (HTPA1, n = 500, HTPA2, n = 400, and LTPA, n = 220. The seasonal prevalence of Fasciola infection was 10.4%, 12.8% and 10.9%, during summer, 11.2%, 10.8% and 8.6%, during autumn, 9.8%, 6.5% and 5.9% during winter and 8.2%, 7.8% and 5.9%, during spring in the three abattoirs HTPA1, HTPA and LTPA respectively. There was a significant association (p < 0.05 between the intensity of infection and body condition score (BCS of cattle at each abattoir. Factors such as age [HTPA1 (OR = 3.6, CI = 1.2, 10.2, and LTPA (OR = 3.8, CI= 2.4, 6.1], sex [LTPA (OR = 4.2, CI= 2.5, 7.0], breed [HTPA2 (OR = 2.3, CI = 1.3, 4.1 and LTPA (OR = 2.5, CI= 1.3, 5.0] and BCS had significant (p < 0.01–0.001 influence on the prevalence of fasciolosis. In conclusion, the infection with Fasciola spp was higher in the summer than in the winter; a positive association was established between the prevalence of fasciolosis and poor body condition in study animals. This study, therefore, suggests that fasciolosis could be causing substantial production losses, mainly due to cattle weight loss and liver condemnation.

  19. Soil moisture effects on seasonal temperature and precipitation forecast scores in Europe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hurk, Bart van den; Camargo, Helio [Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, KNMI, PO Box 201, AE De Bilt (Netherlands); Doblas-Reyes, Francisco [Catalan Institute of Climate Sciences (IC3), Barcelona (Spain); European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Reading (United Kingdom); Balsamo, Gianpaolo [European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Reading (United Kingdom); Koster, Randal D. [NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, Greenbelt, MD (United States); Seneviratne, Sonia I. [Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Zurich (Switzerland)

    2012-01-15

    The Second Global Land Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE2) is designed to explore the improvement of forecast skill of summertime temperature and precipitation up to 8 weeks ahead by using realistic soil moisture initialization. For the European continent, we show in this study that for temperature the skill does indeed increase up to 6 weeks, but areas with (statistically significant) lower skill also exist at longer lead times. The skill improvement is smaller than shown earlier for the US, partly because of a lower potential predictability of the European climate at seasonal time scales. Selection of extreme soil moisture conditions or a subset of models with similar initial soil moisture conditions does improve the forecast skill, and sporadic positive effects are also demonstrated for precipitation. Using realistic initial soil moisture data increases the interannual variability of temperature compared to the control simulations in the South-Central European area at longer lead times. This leads to better temperature forecasts in a remote area in Western Europe. However, the covered range of forecast dates (1986-1995) is too short to isolate a clear physical mechanism for this remote correlation. (orig.)

  20. Skill of a global seasonal streamflow forecasting system, relative roles of initial conditions and meteorological forcing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Candogan Yossef, N.; Winsemius, H.C.; Weerts, A.; Van Beek, R.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2013-01-01

    We investigate the relative contributions of initial conditions (ICs) and meteorological forcing (MF) to the skill of the global seasonal streamflow forecasting system FEWS-World, using the global hydrological model PCRaster Global Water Balance. Potential improvement in forecasting skill through

  1. Normal Variability of Weekly Musculoskeletal Screening Scores and the Influence of Training Load across an Australian Football League Season.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esmaeili, Alireza; Stewart, Andrew M; Hopkins, William G; Elias, George P; Lazarus, Brendan H; Rowell, Amber E; Aughey, Robert J

    2018-01-01

    Aim: The sit and reach test (S&R), dorsiflexion lunge test (DLT), and adductor squeeze test (AST) are commonly used in weekly musculoskeletal screening for athlete monitoring and injury prevention purposes. The aim of this study was to determine the normal week to week variability of the test scores, individual differences in variability, and the effects of training load on the scores. Methods: Forty-four elite Australian rules footballers from one club completed the weekly screening tests on day 2 or 3 post-main training (pre-season) or post-match (in-season) over a 10 month season. Ratings of perceived exertion and session duration for all training sessions were used to derive various measures of training load via both simple summations and exponentially weighted moving averages. Data were analyzed via linear and quadratic mixed modeling and interpreted using magnitude-based inference. Results: Substantial small to moderate variability was found for the tests at both season phases; for example over the in-season, the normal variability ±90% confidence limits were as follows: S&R ±1.01 cm, ±0.12; DLT ±0.48 cm, ±0.06; AST ±7.4%, ±0.6%. Small individual differences in variability existed for the S&R and AST (factor standard deviations between 1.31 and 1.66). All measures of training load had trivial effects on the screening scores. Conclusion: A change in a test score larger than the normal variability is required to be considered a true change. Athlete monitoring and flagging systems need to account for the individual differences in variability. The tests are not sensitive to internal training load when conducted 2 or 3 days post-training or post-match, and the scores should be interpreted cautiously when used as measures of recovery.

  2. Seasonal Forecasting of Fire Weather Based on a New Global Fire Weather Database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dowdy, Andrew J.; Field, Robert D.; Spessa, Allan C.

    2016-01-01

    Seasonal forecasting of fire weather is examined based on a recently produced global database of the Fire Weather Index (FWI) system beginning in 1980. Seasonal average values of the FWI are examined in relation to measures of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The results are used to examine seasonal forecasts of fire weather conditions throughout the world.

  3. Global Rice Atlas: Disaggregated seasonal crop calendar and production

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Balanza, Jane Girly; Gutierrez, Mary Anne; Villano, Lorena; Nelson, A.D.; Zwart, S.J.; Boschetti, Mirco; Koo, Jawoo; Reinke, Russell; Murty, M. V.R.; Laborte, Alice G.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: Rice is an important staple crop cultivated in more than 163 million ha globally. Although information on the distribution of global rice production is available by country and, at times, at subnational level, information on its distribution within a year is often lacking in different rice

  4. Statistical distributions of optimal global alignment scores of random protein sequences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tang Jiaowei

    2005-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The inference of homology from statistically significant sequence similarity is a central issue in sequence alignments. So far the statistical distribution function underlying the optimal global alignments has not been completely determined. Results In this study, random and real but unrelated sequences prepared in six different ways were selected as reference datasets to obtain their respective statistical distributions of global alignment scores. All alignments were carried out with the Needleman-Wunsch algorithm and optimal scores were fitted to the Gumbel, normal and gamma distributions respectively. The three-parameter gamma distribution performs the best as the theoretical distribution function of global alignment scores, as it agrees perfectly well with the distribution of alignment scores. The normal distribution also agrees well with the score distribution frequencies when the shape parameter of the gamma distribution is sufficiently large, for this is the scenario when the normal distribution can be viewed as an approximation of the gamma distribution. Conclusion We have shown that the optimal global alignment scores of random protein sequences fit the three-parameter gamma distribution function. This would be useful for the inference of homology between sequences whose relationship is unknown, through the evaluation of gamma distribution significance between sequences.

  5. Assessing pediatric ileocolonic Crohn's disease activity based on global MR enterography scores

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pomerri, Fabio; Zuliani, Monica; Giorgi, Benedetta; Muzzio, Pier Carlo [University of Padova, Department of Medicine-DIMED, Padova (Italy); Al Bunni, Faise [Rovigo Hospital, Radiology Unit, S. Maria della Misericordia, Rovigo (Italy); Guariso, Graziella; Gasparetto, Marco; Cananzi, Mara [University of Padova, Department of Women and Child Health, Padova (Italy)

    2017-03-15

    This study was aimed at correlating a magnetic resonance index of activity (MaRIA) and a magnetic resonance enterography global score (MEGS) with activity indexes in a paediatric population with Crohn's disease (CD). This retrospective study included 32 paediatric patients (median age 14.5 years, 18 male) with proven CD who underwent magnetic resonance enterography (MRE). A correlation analysis was performed on the MRE-based scores, the simplified endoscopic score for CD (SES-CD), the paediatric Crohn's disease activity index (PCDAI), and C-reactive protein (CRP) levels. Based on PCDAI, comparison of both global MaRIA and MEGS was made between patients with mild and moderate/severe disease activity. Global MaRIA correlated with SES-CD (r = 0.70, p = 0.001) and PCDAI (r = 0.42, p = 0.016). MEGS correlated with PCDAI (r = 0.46, p = 0.007) and CRP levels (r = 0.35, p = 0.046). MEGS differed significantly (p = 0.027) between patients grouped by clinical disease severity. MRE-based global scores correlated with clinical indexes of CD activity. Therefore, they represent a potential useful tool to predict CD activity and severity, as well as a possible promising alternative to endoscopy, to monitor paediatric patients with CD during their follow-up. (orig.)

  6. Seasonal distributions of diabatic heating during the First GARP Global Experiment

    OpenAIRE

    Ying Wei, Ming; Johnson, Donald R.; Townsend, Ronald D.

    2011-01-01

    The seasonal and annual global distributions of diabatic heating during the First GARP Global Experiment (FGGE) are estimated using the isentropic mass continuity equation. The data used are from the FGGE Level IIIa analyses generated by the United States National Meteorological Center. Spatially and temporally coherent diabatic heating distributions are obtained from the isentropic planetary scale mass circulation that is forced by large-scale heat sources and sinks. The diabatic heating in...

  7. Global Trends in Seasonality of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, 1982–2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Assaf Anyamba

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available A 30-year series of global monthly Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI imagery derived from the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS NDVI3g archive was analyzed for the presence of trends in changing seasonality. Using the Seasonal Trend Analysis (STA procedure, over half (56.30% of land surfaces were found to exhibit significant trends. Almost half (46.10% of the significant trends belonged to three classes of seasonal trends (or changes. Class 1 consisted of areas that experienced a uniform increase in NDVI throughout the year, and was primarily associated with forested areas, particularly broadleaf forests. Class 2 consisted of areas experiencing an increase in the amplitude of the annual seasonal signal whereby increases in NDVI in the green season were balanced by decreases in the brown season. These areas were found primarily in grassland and shrubland regions. Class 3 was found primarily in the Taiga and Tundra biomes and exhibited increases in the annual summer peak in NDVI. While no single attribution of cause could be determined for each of these classes, it was evident that they are primarily found in natural areas (as opposed to anthropogenic land cover conversions and that they are consistent with climate-related ameliorations of growing conditions during the study period.

  8. Parents' global rating of mental health correlates with SF-36 scores and health services satisfaction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mah, Jean K; Tough, Suzanne; Fung, Thomas; Douglas-England, Kathleen; Verhoef, Marja

    2006-10-01

    Patient satisfaction surveys are often used to measure quality of care. However, patient satisfaction may not be a reliable indicator of service quality because satisfaction can be influenced by clients' characteristics such as their health status. Parents of children attending a pediatric neurology clinic completed the Short Form Health Survey (SF-36) and global ratings of their physical and mental health. They also completed the Client Satisfaction Questionnaire (CSQ), the Measure of Processes of Care (MPOC), and the Family-Centered Care Survey (FCCS). 104 parents completed the survey. The correlation between the global rating of physical or mental health and their corresponding SF-36 scores was high. The majority (88%) of parents were satisfied, with a median CSQ score of 28 (IQR, 24 to 31) and a FCCS score of 4.7 (IQR, 4.2 to 4.9). Logistic regression identified parents' mental health as a significant predictor of client satisfaction (OR, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.14). Given the positive association between parents' mental health and satisfaction with care, it is important to consider mental status as a covariate in interpreting satisfaction surveys. Parents' global rating of mental health appears to be a reasonable indicator of their SF-36 mental scores.

  9. Global Analysis of Empirical Relationships Between Annual Climate and Seasonality of NDVI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potter, C. S.

    1997-01-01

    This study describes the use of satellite data to calibrate a new climate-vegetation greenness function for global change studies. We examined statistical relationships between annual climate indexes (temperature, precipitation, and surface radiation) and seasonal attributes of the AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series for the mid-1980s in order to refine our empirical understanding of intraannual patterns and global abiotic controls on natural vegetation dynamics. Multiple linear regression results using global l(sup o) gridded data sets suggest that three climate indexes: growing degree days, annual precipitation total, and an annual moisture index together can account to 70-80 percent of the variation in the NDVI seasonal extremes (maximum and minimum values) for the calibration year 1984. Inclusion of the same climate index values from the previous year explained no significant additional portion of the global scale variation in NDVI seasonal extremes. The monthly timing of NDVI extremes was closely associated with seasonal patterns in maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall, with lag times of 1 to 2 months. We separated well-drained areas from l(sup o) grid cells mapped as greater than 25 percent inundated coverage for estimation of both the magnitude and timing of seasonal NDVI maximum values. Predicted monthly NDVI, derived from our climate-based regression equations and Fourier smoothing algorithms, shows good agreement with observed NDVI at a series of ecosystem test locations from around the globe. Regions in which NDVI seasonal extremes were not accurately predicted are mainly high latitude ecosystems and other remote locations where climate station data are sparse.

  10. Defining global neuroendocrine gene expression patterns associated with reproductive seasonality in fish.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dapeng Zhang

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Many vertebrates, including the goldfish, exhibit seasonal reproductive rhythms, which are a result of interactions between external environmental stimuli and internal endocrine systems in the hypothalamo-pituitary-gonadal axis. While it is long believed that differential expression of neuroendocrine genes contributes to establishing seasonal reproductive rhythms, no systems-level investigation has yet been conducted. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In the present study, by analyzing multiple female goldfish brain microarray datasets, we have characterized global gene expression patterns for a seasonal cycle. A core set of genes (873 genes in the hypothalamus were identified to be differentially expressed between May, August and December, which correspond to physiologically distinct stages that are sexually mature (prespawning, sexual regression, and early gonadal redevelopment, respectively. Expression changes of these genes are also shared by another brain region, the telencephalon, as revealed by multivariate analysis. More importantly, by examining one dataset obtained from fish in October who were kept under long-daylength photoperiod (16 h typical of the springtime breeding season (May, we observed that the expression of identified genes appears regulated by photoperiod, a major factor controlling vertebrate reproductive cyclicity. Gene ontology analysis revealed that hormone genes and genes functionally involved in G-protein coupled receptor signaling pathway and transmission of nerve impulses are significantly enriched in an expression pattern, whose transition is located between prespawning and sexually regressed stages. The existence of seasonal expression patterns was verified for several genes including isotocin, ependymin II, GABA(A gamma2 receptor, calmodulin, and aromatase b by independent samplings of goldfish brains from six seasonal time points and real-time PCR assays. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Using both

  11. The impact of global warming on seasonality of ocean primary production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Henson

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The seasonal cycle (i.e. phenology of oceanic primary production (PP is expected to change in response to climate warming. Here, we use output from 6 global biogeochemical models to examine the response in the seasonal amplitude of PP and timing of peak PP to the IPCC AR5 warming scenario. We also investigate whether trends in PP phenology may be more rapidly detectable than trends in annual mean PP. The seasonal amplitude of PP decreases by an average of 1–2% per year by 2100 in most biomes, with the exception of the Arctic which sees an increase of ~1% per year. This is accompanied by an advance in the timing of peak PP by ~0.5–1 months by 2100 over much of the globe, and particularly pronounced in the Arctic. These changes are driven by an increase in seasonal amplitude of sea surface temperature (where the maxima get hotter faster than the minima and a decrease in the seasonal amplitude of the mixed layer depth and surface nitrate concentration. Our results indicate a transformation of currently strongly seasonal (bloom forming regions, typically found at high latitudes, into weakly seasonal (non-bloom regions, characteristic of contemporary subtropical conditions. On average, 36 yr of data are needed to detect a climate-change-driven trend in the seasonal amplitude of PP, compared to 32 yr for mean annual PP. Monthly resolution model output is found to be inadequate for resolving phenological changes. We conclude that analysis of phytoplankton seasonality is not necessarily a shortcut to detecting climate change impacts on ocean productivity.

  12. Seasonal variation of photosynthetic model parameters and leaf area index from global Fluxnet eddy covariance data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groenendijk, M.; Dolman, A. J.; Ammann, C.; Arneth, A.; Cescatti, A.; Dragoni, D.; Gash, J. H. C.; Gianelle, D.; Gioli, B.; Kiely, G.; Knohl, A.; Law, B. E.; Lund, M.; Marcolla, B.; van der Molen, M. K.; Montagnani, L.; Moors, E.; Richardson, A. D.; Roupsard, O.; Verbeeck, H.; Wohlfahrt, G.

    2011-12-01

    Global vegetation models require the photosynthetic parameters, maximum carboxylation capacity (Vcm), and quantum yield (α) to parameterize their plant functional types (PFTs). The purpose of this work is to determine how much the scaling of the parameters from leaf to ecosystem level through a seasonally varying leaf area index (LAI) explains the parameter variation within and between PFTs. Using Fluxnet data, we simulate a seasonally variable LAIF for a large range of sites, comparable to the LAIM derived from MODIS. There are discrepancies when LAIF reach zero levels and LAIM still provides a small positive value. We find that temperature is the most common constraint for LAIF in 55% of the simulations, while global radiation and vapor pressure deficit are the key constraints for 18% and 27% of the simulations, respectively, while large differences in this forcing still exist when looking at specific PFTs. Despite these differences, the annual photosynthesis simulations are comparable when using LAIF or LAIM (r2 = 0.89). We investigated further the seasonal variation of ecosystem-scale parameters derived with LAIF. Vcm has the largest seasonal variation. This holds for all vegetation types and climates. The parameter α is less variable. By including ecosystem-scale parameter seasonality we can explain a considerable part of the ecosystem-scale parameter variation between PFTs. The remaining unexplained leaf-scale PFT variation still needs further work, including elucidating the precise role of leaf and soil level nitrogen.

  13. Scored patient-generated Subjective Global Assessment: Length of hospital stay and mortality in cancer patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexsandro Ferreira dos SANTOS

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective To determine the association of a scored patient-generated Subjective Global Assessment with mortality and length of hospital stay in cancer patients. Methods Cross-sectional study carried out between July and September 2014 using secondary data collection using data from 366 medical records of patients admitted to a hospital recognized as a cancer center of excellence. The present study included patients with hospital stay over than or equal three days and minimum age of 20 years. The patient-generated Subjective Global Assessment scores were calculated and compared with the patients’ clinical and anthropometric characteristics and outcomes (death and long length of stay in hospital. Results Of the 366 patients evaluated, 36.0% were malnourished. The presence of malnutrition, according to the scored patient-generated Subjective Global Assessment, was statistically associated with the presence of metastasis (52.4%. On the other hand, malnutrition, according to the body mass index in adults (55.8% and in older elderly patients (54.2%, was associated with death (55.0%. The adjusted logistic regression model showed that the following factors were associated with prolonged hospitalization: early nutritional screening, presence of severe malnutrition, radiotherapy and chemotherapy, and surgical procedures. As for mortality, the associated factors were: male reproductive system tumor, presence of metastasis, clinical treatment, prolonged hospitalization, and the presence of some degree of malnutrition. Conclusion The patient-generated Subjective Global Assessment score is an important risk marker of prolonged hospitalization and mortality rates. It is a useful tool capable of circumventing significant biases in the nutritional evaluation of cancer patients.

  14. Annual and seasonal tornado activity in the United States and the global wind oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Todd W.

    2017-08-01

    Previous studies have searched for relationships between tornado activity and atmospheric teleconnections to provide insight on the relationship between tornadoes, their environments, and larger scale patterns in the climate system. Knowledge of these relationships is practical because it can improve seasonal and sub-seasonal predictions of tornado probability and, therefore, help mitigate tornado-related losses. This study explores the relationships between the annual and seasonal tornado activity in the United States and the Global Wind Oscillation. Time series herein show that phases of the Global Wind Oscillation, and atmospheric angular momentum anomalies, vary over a period of roughly 20-25 years. Rank correlations indicate that tornado activity is weakly correlated with phases 2, 3, and 4 (positive) and 6, 7, and 8 (negative) of the Global Wind Oscillation in winter, spring, and fall. The correlation is not as clear in summer or at the annual scale. Non-parametric Mann-Whitney U tests indicate that winters and springs with more phase 2, 3, and 4 and fewer phase 6, 7, and 8 days tend to have more tornadoes. Lastly, logistic regression models indicate that winters and springs with more phase 2, 3, and 4 days have greater likelihoods of having more than normal tornado activity. Combined, these analyses suggest that seasons with more low atmospheric angular momentum days, or phase 2, 3, and 4 days, tend to have greater tornado activity than those with fewer days, and that this relationship is most evident in winter and spring.

  15. Annual and seasonal tornado activity in the United States and the global wind oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Todd W.

    2018-06-01

    Previous studies have searched for relationships between tornado activity and atmospheric teleconnections to provide insight on the relationship between tornadoes, their environments, and larger scale patterns in the climate system. Knowledge of these relationships is practical because it can improve seasonal and sub-seasonal predictions of tornado probability and, therefore, help mitigate tornado-related losses. This study explores the relationships between the annual and seasonal tornado activity in the United States and the Global Wind Oscillation. Time series herein show that phases of the Global Wind Oscillation, and atmospheric angular momentum anomalies, vary over a period of roughly 20-25 years. Rank correlations indicate that tornado activity is weakly correlated with phases 2, 3, and 4 (positive) and 6, 7, and 8 (negative) of the Global Wind Oscillation in winter, spring, and fall. The correlation is not as clear in summer or at the annual scale. Non-parametric Mann-Whitney U tests indicate that winters and springs with more phase 2, 3, and 4 and fewer phase 6, 7, and 8 days tend to have more tornadoes. Lastly, logistic regression models indicate that winters and springs with more phase 2, 3, and 4 days have greater likelihoods of having more than normal tornado activity. Combined, these analyses suggest that seasons with more low atmospheric angular momentum days, or phase 2, 3, and 4 days, tend to have greater tornado activity than those with fewer days, and that this relationship is most evident in winter and spring.

  16. Seasonal variation of the global mixed layer depth: comparison between Argo data and FIO-ESM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yutong; Xu, Haiming; Qiao, Fangli; Dong, Changming

    2018-03-01

    The present study evaluates a simulation of the global ocean mixed layer depth (MLD) using the First Institute of Oceanography-Earth System Model (FIOESM). The seasonal variation of the global MLD from the FIO-ESM simulation is compared to Argo observational data. The Argo data show that the global ocean MLD has a strong seasonal variation with a deep MLD in winter and a shallow MLD in summer, while the spring and fall seasons act as transitional periods. Overall, the FIO-ESM simulation accurately captures the seasonal variation in MLD in most areas. It exhibits a better performance during summer and fall than during winter and spring. The simulated MLD in the Southern Hemisphere is much closer to observations than that in the Northern Hemisphere. In general, the simulated MLD over the South Atlantic Ocean matches the observation best among the six areas. Additionally, the model slightly underestimates the MLD in parts of the North Atlantic Ocean, and slightly overestimates the MLD over the other ocean basins.

  17. Recalibration of the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events risk score in a multiethnic Asian population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Mark Y; Shah, Bimal R; Gao, Fei; Sim, Ling Ling; Chua, Terrance; Tan, Huay Cheem; Yeo, Tiong Cheng; Ong, Hean Yee; Foo, David; Goh, Ping Ping; Surrun, Soondal K; Pieper, Karen S; Granger, Christopher B; Koh, Tian Hai; Salim, Agus; Tai, E Shyong

    2011-08-01

    Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is a leading cause of mortality in Asia. However, quantitative risk scores to predict mortality after AMI were developed without the participation of Asian countries. We evaluated the performance of the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) in-hospital mortality risk score, directly and after recalibration, in a large Singaporean cohort representing 3 major Asian ethnicities. The GRACE cohort included 11,389 patients, predominantly of European descent, hospitalized for AMI or unstable angina from 2002 to 2003. The Singapore cohort included 10,100 Chinese, 3,005 Malay, and 2,046 Indian patients hospitalized for AMI from 2002 to 2005.Using the original GRACE score, predicted in-hospital mortality was 2.4% (Chinese), 2.0% (Malay), and 1.6% (Indian). However, observed in-hospital mortality was much greater at 9.8% (Chinese), 7.6% (Malay), and 6.4% (Indian). The c statistic for Chinese, Malays, and Indians was 0.86, 0.86, and 0.84, respectively, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic was 250, 56, and 41, respectively. Recalibration of the GRACE score, using the mean-centered constants derived from the Singapore cohort, did not change the c statistic but substantially improved the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic to 90, 24, and 18, respectively. The recalibrated GRACE score predicted in-hospital mortality as follows: 7.7% (Chinese), 6.0% (Malay), and 5.2% (Indian). In this large cohort of 3 major Asian ethnicities, the original GRACE score, derived from populations outside Asia, underestimated in-hospital mortality after AMI. Recalibration improved risk estimation substantially and may help adapt externally developed risk scores for local practice. Copyright © 2011 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Seasonality of cholera from 1974 to 2005: a review of global patterns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feldacker Caryl

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The seasonality of cholera is described in various study areas throughout the world. However, no study examines how temporal cycles of the disease vary around the world or reviews its hypothesized causes. This paper reviews the literature on the seasonality of cholera and describes its temporal cycles by compiling and analyzing 32 years of global cholera data. This paper also provides a detailed literature review on regional patterns and environmental and climatic drivers of cholera patterns. Data, Methods, and Results Cholera data are compiled from 1974 to 2005 from the World Health Organization Weekly Epidemiological Reports, a database that includes all reported cholera cases in 140 countries. The data are analyzed to measure whether season, latitude, and their interaction are significantly associated with the country-level number of outbreaks in each of the 12 preceding months using separate negative binomial regression models for northern, southern, and combined hemispheres. Likelihood ratios tests are used to determine the model of best fit. The results suggest that cholera outbreaks demonstrate seasonal patterns in higher absolute latitudes, but closer to the equator, cholera outbreaks do not follow a clear seasonal pattern. Conclusion The findings suggest that environmental and climatic factors partially control the temporal variability of cholera. These results also indirectly contribute to the growing debate about the effects of climate change and global warming. As climate change threatens to increase global temperature, resulting rises in sea levels and temperatures may influence the temporal fluctuations of cholera, potentially increasing the frequency and duration of cholera outbreaks.

  19. Role of body condition score and body weight in the control of seasonal reproduction in Blanca Andaluza goats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallego-Calvo, L; Gatica, M C; Guzmán, J L; Zarazaga, L A

    2014-12-30

    The reproductive activity of 84 female Blanca Andaluza goats was monitored over 17 months to determine the role of body condition score (BCS) and body weight (BW) in its control. Following a 3×2 factorial experimental design, the animals were allocated to three groups: low BCS (≤2.50, n=24), medium BCS (BCS=2.75-3.00, n=31) and high BCS (≥3.25, n=29). The same animals, irrespective of the BCS group categorization, were also divided into two groups depending on BW: low BW (≤40kg, n=44) and high BW (>40kg, n=40). Oestrus was evaluated daily using vasectomised males. The ovulation rate was assessed by trans-rectal ultrasonography after the identification of oestrus. Ovulations were determined by monitoring the plasma progesterone concentration weekly. The BCS and BW were recorded once a week and nutritional status adjusted to maintain the initial differences in BW and BCS between the groups. Both BCS and BW had a significant (at least Preproductive activity recorded in does with a BCS of ≥2.75 and BW of >40kg. No significant interaction between these variables was observed. Some (11.7%) of the does in the groups with animals of BCS≥2.75 had ovulations during seasonal anoestrus. None of the does with a BCS of ≤2.5 had ovulations during seasonal anoestrus. The ovulation rate of the first and last oestrus was influenced by BW (Preproductive seasonality that is clearly and independently modulated by BCS and BW. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. A vegetation control on seasonal variations in global atmospheric mercury concentrations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiskra, Martin; Sonke, Jeroen E.; Obrist, Daniel; Bieser, Johannes; Ebinghaus, Ralf; Myhre, Cathrine Lund; Pfaffhuber, Katrine Aspmo; Wängberg, Ingvar; Kyllönen, Katriina; Worthy, Doug; Martin, Lynwill G.; Labuschagne, Casper; Mkololo, Thumeka; Ramonet, Michel; Magand, Olivier; Dommergue, Aurélien

    2018-04-01

    Anthropogenic mercury emissions are transported through the atmosphere as gaseous elemental mercury (Hg(0)) before they are deposited to Earth's surface. Strong seasonality in atmospheric Hg(0) concentrations in the Northern Hemisphere has been explained by two factors: anthropogenic Hg(0) emissions are thought to peak in winter due to higher energy consumption, and atmospheric oxidation rates of Hg(0) are faster in summer. Oxidation-driven Hg(0) seasonality should be equally pronounced in the Southern Hemisphere, which is inconsistent with observations of constant year-round Hg(0) levels. Here, we assess the role of Hg(0) uptake by vegetation as an alternative mechanism for driving Hg(0) seasonality. We find that at terrestrial sites in the Northern Hemisphere, Hg(0) co-varies with CO2, which is known to exhibit a minimum in summer when CO2 is assimilated by vegetation. The amplitude of seasonal oscillations in the atmospheric Hg(0) concentration increases with latitude and is larger at inland terrestrial sites than coastal sites. Using satellite data, we find that the photosynthetic activity of vegetation correlates with Hg(0) levels at individual sites and across continents. We suggest that terrestrial vegetation acts as a global Hg(0) pump, which can contribute to seasonal variations of atmospheric Hg(0), and that decreasing Hg(0) levels in the Northern Hemisphere over the past 20 years can be partly attributed to increased terrestrial net primary production.

  1. Sub-seasonal predictability of water scarcity at global and local scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wanders, N.; Wada, Y.; Wood, E. F.

    2016-12-01

    Forecasting the water demand and availability for agriculture and energy production has been neglected in previous research, partly due to the fact that most large-scale hydrological models lack the skill to forecast human water demands at sub-seasonal time scale. We study the potential of a sub-seasonal water scarcity forecasting system for improved water management decision making and improved estimates of water demand and availability. We have generated 32 years of global sub-seasonal multi-model water availability, demand and scarcity forecasts. The quality of the forecasts is compared to a reference forecast derived from resampling historic weather observations. The newly developed system has been evaluated for both the global scale and in a real-time local application in the Sacramento valley for the Trinity, Shasta and Oroville reservoirs, where the water demand for agriculture and hydropower is high. On the global scale we find that the reference forecast shows high initial forecast skill (up to 8 months) for water scarcity in the eastern US, Central Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Adding dynamical sub-seasonal forecasts results in a clear improvement for most regions in the world, increasing the forecasts' lead time by 2 or more months on average. The strongest improvements are found in the US, Brazil, Central Asia and Australia. For the Sacramento valley we can accurately predict anomalies in the reservoir inflow, hydropower potential and the downstream irrigation water demand 6 months in advance. This allow us to forecast potential water scarcity in the Sacramento valley and adjust the reservoir management to prevent deficits in energy or irrigation water availability. The newly developed forecast system shows that it is possible to reduce the vulnerability to upcoming water scarcity events and allows optimization of the distribution of the available water between the agricultural and energy sector half a year in advance.

  2. Identification of symmetric and asymmetric responses in seasonal streamflow globally to ENSO phase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Donghoon; Ward, Philip J.; Block, Paul

    2018-04-01

    The phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has large-ranging effects on streamflow and hydrologic conditions globally. While many studies have evaluated this relationship through correlation analysis between annual streamflow and ENSO indices, an assessment of potential asymmetric relationships between ENSO and streamflow is lacking. Here, we evaluate seasonal variations in streamflow by ENSO phase to identify asymmetric (AR) and symmetric (SR) spatial pattern responses globally and further corroborate with local precipitation and hydrological condition. The AR and SR patterns between seasonal precipitation and streamflow are identified at many locations for the first time. Our results identify strong SR patterns in particular regions including northwestern and southern US, northeastern and southeastern South America, northeastern and southern Africa, southwestern Europe, and central-south Russia. The seasonally lagged anomalous streamflow patterns are also identified and attributed to snowmelt, soil moisture, and/or cumulative hydrological processes across river basins. These findings may be useful in water resources management and natural hazards planning by better characterizing the propensity of flood or drought conditions by ENSO phase.

  3. Global assessment of surfing conditions: seasonal, interannual and long-term variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Espejo, A.; Losada, I.; Mendez, F.

    2012-12-01

    International surfing destinations owe a great debt to specific combinations of wind-wave, thermal conditions and local bathymetry. As surf quality depends on a vast number of geophysical variables, a multivariable standardized index on the basis of expert judgment is proposed to analyze surf resource in a worldwide domain. Data needed is obtained by combining several datasets (reanalyses): 60-year satellite-calibrated spectral wave hindcast (GOW, WaveWatchIII), wind fields from NCEP/NCAR, global sea surface temperature from ERSST.v3b, and global tides from TPXO7.1. A summary of the global surf resource is presented, which highlights the high degree of variability in surfable events. According to general atmospheric circulation, results show that west facing low to middle latitude coasts are more suitable for surfing, especially those in Southern Hemisphere. Month to month analysis reveals strong seasonal changes in the occurrence of surfable events, enhancing those in North Atlantic or North Pacific. Interannual variability is investigated by comparing occurrence values with global and regional climate patterns showing a great influence at both, global and regional scales. Analysis of long term trends shows an increase in the probability of surfable events over the west facing coasts on the planet (i.e. + 30 hours/year in California). The resulting maps provide useful information for surfers and surf related stakeholders, coastal planning, education, and basic research.; Figure 1. Global distribution of medium quality (a) and high quality surf conditions probability (b).

  4. Evaluation of variability in high-resolution protein structures by global distance scoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Risa Anzai

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Systematic analysis of the statistical and dynamical properties of proteins is critical to understanding cellular events. Extraction of biologically relevant information from a set of high-resolution structures is important because it can provide mechanistic details behind the functional properties of protein families, enabling rational comparison between families. Most of the current structural comparisons are pairwise-based, which hampers the global analysis of increasing contents in the Protein Data Bank. Additionally, pairing of protein structures introduces uncertainty with respect to reproducibility because it frequently accompanies other settings for superimposition. This study introduces intramolecular distance scoring for the global analysis of proteins, for each of which at least several high-resolution structures are available. As a pilot study, we have tested 300 human proteins and showed that the method is comprehensively used to overview advances in each protein and protein family at the atomic level. This method, together with the interpretation of the model calculations, provide new criteria for understanding specific structural variation in a protein, enabling global comparison of the variability in proteins from different species.

  5. Evaluation of variability in high-resolution protein structures by global distance scoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anzai, Risa; Asami, Yoshiki; Inoue, Waka; Ueno, Hina; Yamada, Koya; Okada, Tetsuji

    2018-01-01

    Systematic analysis of the statistical and dynamical properties of proteins is critical to understanding cellular events. Extraction of biologically relevant information from a set of high-resolution structures is important because it can provide mechanistic details behind the functional properties of protein families, enabling rational comparison between families. Most of the current structural comparisons are pairwise-based, which hampers the global analysis of increasing contents in the Protein Data Bank. Additionally, pairing of protein structures introduces uncertainty with respect to reproducibility because it frequently accompanies other settings for superimposition. This study introduces intramolecular distance scoring for the global analysis of proteins, for each of which at least several high-resolution structures are available. As a pilot study, we have tested 300 human proteins and showed that the method is comprehensively used to overview advances in each protein and protein family at the atomic level. This method, together with the interpretation of the model calculations, provide new criteria for understanding specific structural variation in a protein, enabling global comparison of the variability in proteins from different species.

  6. Improvement in depression scores after 1 hour of light therapy treatment in patients with seasonal affective disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reeves, Gloria M; Nijjar, Gagan Virk; Langenberg, Patricia; Johnson, Mary A; Khabazghazvini, Baharak; Sleemi, Aamar; Vaswani, Dipika; Lapidus, Manana; Manalai, Partam; Tariq, Muhammad; Acharya, Monika; Cabassa, Johanna; Snitker, Soren; Postolache, Teodor T

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate possible rapid effects of light therapy on depressed mood in patients with seasonal affective disorder. Participants received 1 hour of bright light therapy and 1 hour of placebo dim red light in a randomized order crossover design. Depressed mood was measured at baseline and after each hour of light treatment using two self-report depression scales (Profile of Mood States-Depression-Dejection [POMS-D] subscale and the Beck Depression Inventory II [BDI-II]). When light effects were grouped for the two sessions, there was significantly greater reduction in self-report depression scores by -1.3 (p = 0.02) on the BDI-II and -1.2 (p = 0.02) on the POMS-D. A significant but modest improvement was detected after a single active light session. This is the first study, to our knowledge, to document an immediate improvement with light treatment using a placebo-controlled design with a clinical sample of depressed individuals.

  7. Overall scores as an alternative to global ratings in patient experience surveys : A comparison of four methods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krol, M.W.; de Boer, D.; Rademakers, J.J.D.J.M.; Delnoij, D.

    2013-01-01

    Background Global ratings of healthcare by patients are a popular way of summarizing patients’ experiences. Summary scores can be used for comparing healthcare provider performance and provider rankings. As an alternative, overall scores from actual patient experiences can be constructed as summary

  8. A Bayesian modelling method for post-processing daily sub-seasonal to seasonal rainfall forecasts from global climate models and evaluation for 12 Australian catchments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Schepen

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall forecasts are an integral part of hydrological forecasting systems at sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales. In seasonal forecasting, global climate models (GCMs are now the go-to source for rainfall forecasts. For hydrological applications however, GCM forecasts are often biased and unreliable in uncertainty spread, and calibration is therefore required before use. There are sophisticated statistical techniques for calibrating monthly and seasonal aggregations of the forecasts. However, calibration of seasonal forecasts at the daily time step typically uses very simple statistical methods or climate analogue methods. These methods generally lack the sophistication to achieve unbiased, reliable and coherent forecasts of daily amounts and seasonal accumulated totals. In this study, we propose and evaluate a Rainfall Post-Processing method for Seasonal forecasts (RPP-S, which is based on the Bayesian joint probability modelling approach for calibrating daily forecasts and the Schaake Shuffle for connecting the daily ensemble members of different lead times. We apply the method to post-process ACCESS-S forecasts for 12 perennial and ephemeral catchments across Australia and for 12 initialisation dates. RPP-S significantly reduces bias in raw forecasts and improves both skill and reliability. RPP-S forecasts are also more skilful and reliable than forecasts derived from ACCESS-S forecasts that have been post-processed using quantile mapping, especially for monthly and seasonal accumulations. Several opportunities to improve the robustness and skill of RPP-S are identified. The new RPP-S post-processed forecasts will be used in ensemble sub-seasonal to seasonal streamflow applications.

  9. A Bayesian modelling method for post-processing daily sub-seasonal to seasonal rainfall forecasts from global climate models and evaluation for 12 Australian catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schepen, Andrew; Zhao, Tongtiegang; Wang, Quan J.; Robertson, David E.

    2018-03-01

    Rainfall forecasts are an integral part of hydrological forecasting systems at sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales. In seasonal forecasting, global climate models (GCMs) are now the go-to source for rainfall forecasts. For hydrological applications however, GCM forecasts are often biased and unreliable in uncertainty spread, and calibration is therefore required before use. There are sophisticated statistical techniques for calibrating monthly and seasonal aggregations of the forecasts. However, calibration of seasonal forecasts at the daily time step typically uses very simple statistical methods or climate analogue methods. These methods generally lack the sophistication to achieve unbiased, reliable and coherent forecasts of daily amounts and seasonal accumulated totals. In this study, we propose and evaluate a Rainfall Post-Processing method for Seasonal forecasts (RPP-S), which is based on the Bayesian joint probability modelling approach for calibrating daily forecasts and the Schaake Shuffle for connecting the daily ensemble members of different lead times. We apply the method to post-process ACCESS-S forecasts for 12 perennial and ephemeral catchments across Australia and for 12 initialisation dates. RPP-S significantly reduces bias in raw forecasts and improves both skill and reliability. RPP-S forecasts are also more skilful and reliable than forecasts derived from ACCESS-S forecasts that have been post-processed using quantile mapping, especially for monthly and seasonal accumulations. Several opportunities to improve the robustness and skill of RPP-S are identified. The new RPP-S post-processed forecasts will be used in ensemble sub-seasonal to seasonal streamflow applications.

  10. Survival analysis of colorectal cancer patients with tumor recurrence using global score test methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zain, Zakiyah, E-mail: zac@uum.edu.my; Ahmad, Yuhaniz, E-mail: yuhaniz@uum.edu.my [School of Quantitative Sciences, Universiti Utara Malaysia, UUM Sintok 06010, Kedah (Malaysia); Azwan, Zairul, E-mail: zairulazwan@gmail.com, E-mail: farhanaraduan@gmail.com, E-mail: drisagap@yahoo.com; Raduan, Farhana, E-mail: zairulazwan@gmail.com, E-mail: farhanaraduan@gmail.com, E-mail: drisagap@yahoo.com; Sagap, Ismail, E-mail: zairulazwan@gmail.com, E-mail: farhanaraduan@gmail.com, E-mail: drisagap@yahoo.com [Surgery Department, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia Medical Centre, Jalan Yaacob Latif, 56000 Bandar Tun Razak, Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia); Aziz, Nazrina, E-mail: nazrina@uum.edu.my

    2014-12-04

    Colorectal cancer is the third and the second most common cancer worldwide in men and women respectively, and the second in Malaysia for both genders. Surgery, chemotherapy and radiotherapy are among the options available for treatment of patients with colorectal cancer. In clinical trials, the main purpose is often to compare efficacy between experimental and control treatments. Treatment comparisons often involve several responses or endpoints, and this situation complicates the analysis. In the case of colorectal cancer, sets of responses concerned with survival times include: times from tumor removal until the first, the second and the third tumor recurrences, and time to death. For a patient, the time to recurrence is correlated to the overall survival. In this study, global score test methodology is used in combining the univariate score statistics for comparing treatments with respect to each survival endpoint into a single statistic. The data of tumor recurrence and overall survival of colorectal cancer patients are taken from a Malaysian hospital. The results are found to be similar to those computed using the established Wei, Lin and Weissfeld method. Key factors such as ethnic, gender, age and stage at diagnose are also reported.

  11. Assessment of nutritional status using abridged scored patient-generated subjective global assessment in cancer patient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahvazi, Simin; Onvani, Shokouh; Heydari, Marziyeh; Mehrzad, Valiollah; Nadjarzadeh, Azadeh; Fallahzadeh, Hosseyn

    2017-01-01

    Malnutrition is a common problem among cancer patients, usually occurs due to poor appetite, low food intake, and changes in body metabolism. The aim of this study is to determine the prevalence of malnutrition in patients receiving chemotherapy on an outpatient basis. This cross-sectional study conducted on 300 cancer patients referred to hospital. The prevalence of malnutrition among patients was assessed using the abridged scored patient-generated subjective global assessment (abPG-SGA) standard questionnaire. Moreover, patient's weight and 24 h dietary recall were measured. Descriptive statistics were used to present characteristics of patients and dietary recalls. For revealing the correlation, Spearman correlation was used. The average abPG-SGA score was 7.6 (standard deviation [SD] = 5.4) and 60.7% of patients were malnourished and required nutritional intervention. Patients mean age and mean duration of illness were 54.2 (SD = 14.7(years, 25 months, respectively. The most common complaint of patients included fatigue (51.3%), anorexia (43.3%), and dry mouth (41%). Reduction in food intake in past month was reported by 41.7% of patients. According to the high prevalence of cancers and increasing growth of them in recent years with regard to outpatient treatment development for cancer patients, using the abPG-SGA standard questionnaire by nutritionist or nurses can be effective to detect malnourished patients and reduce complications caused by disease.

  12. Toward Seasonal Forecasting of Global Droughts: Evaluation over USA and Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Eric; Yuan, Xing; Roundy, Joshua; Sheffield, Justin; Pan, Ming

    2013-04-01

    Extreme hydrologic events in the form of droughts are significant sources of social and economic damage. In the United States according to the National Climatic Data Center, the losses from drought exceed US210 billion during 1980-2011, and account for about 24% of all losses from major weather disasters. Internationally, especially for the developing world, drought has had devastating impacts on local populations through food insecurity and famine. Providing reliable drought forecasts with sufficient early warning will help the governments to move from the management of drought crises to the management of drought risk. After working on drought monitoring and forecasting over the USA for over 10 years, the Princeton land surface hydrology group is now developing a global drought monitoring and forecasting system using a dynamical seasonal climate-hydrologic LSM-model (CHM) approach. Currently there is an active debate on the merits of the CHM-based seasonal hydrologic forecasts as compared to Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP). We use NCEP's operational forecast system, the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) and its previous version CFSv1, to investigate the value of seasonal climate model forecasts by conducting a set of 27-year seasonal hydrologic hindcasts over the USA. Through Bayesian downscaling, climate models have higher squared correlation (R2) and smaller error than ESP for monthly precipitation averaged over major river basins across the USA, and the forecasts conditional on ENSO show further improvements (out to four months) over river basins in the southern USA. All three approaches have plausible predictions of soil moisture drought frequency over central USA out to six months because of strong soil moisture memory, and seasonal climate models provide better results over central and eastern USA. The R2 of drought extent is higher for arid basins and for the forecasts initiated during dry seasons, but significant improvements from CFSv2 occur

  13. GlobAl Distribution of GEnetic Traits (GADGET) web server: polygenic trait scores worldwide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chande, Aroon T; Wang, Lu; Rishishwar, Lavanya; Conley, Andrew B; Norris, Emily T; Valderrama-Aguirre, Augusto; Jordan, I King

    2018-05-18

    Human populations from around the world show striking phenotypic variation across a wide variety of traits. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) are used to uncover genetic variants that influence the expression of heritable human traits; accordingly, population-specific distributions of GWAS-implicated variants may shed light on the genetic basis of human phenotypic diversity. With this in mind, we developed the GlobAl Distribution of GEnetic Traits web server (GADGET http://gadget.biosci.gatech.edu). The GADGET web server provides users with a dynamic visual platform for exploring the relationship between worldwide genetic diversity and the genetic architecture underlying numerous human phenotypes. GADGET integrates trait-implicated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from GWAS, with population genetic data from the 1000 Genomes Project, to calculate genome-wide polygenic trait scores (PTS) for 818 phenotypes in 2504 individual genomes. Population-specific distributions of PTS are shown for 26 human populations across 5 continental population groups, with traits ordered based on the extent of variation observed among populations. Users of GADGET can also upload custom trait SNP sets to visualize global PTS distributions for their own traits of interest.

  14. Constructing seasonal LAI trajectory by data-model fusion for global evergreen needle-leaf forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, R.; Chen, J.; Mo, G.

    2010-12-01

    For decades, advancements in optical remote sensors made it possible to produce maps of a biophysical parameter--the Leaf Area Index (LAI), which is critically necessary in regional and global modeling of exchanges of carbon, water, energy and other substances, across large areas in a fast way. Quite a few global LAI products have been generated since 2000, e.g. GLOBCARBON (Deng et al., 2006), MODIS Collection 5 (Shabanov et al., 2007), CYCLOPES (Baret et al., 2007), etc. Albeit these progresses, the basic physics behind the technology restrains it from accurate estimation of LAI in winter, especially for northern high-latitude evergreen needle-leaf forests. Underestimation of winter LAI in these regions has been reported in literature (Yang et al., 2000; Cohen et al., 2003; Tian et al., 2004; Weiss et al., 2007; Pisek et al., 2007), and the distortion is usually attributed to the variations of canopy reflectance caused by understory change (Weiss et al., 2007) as well as by the presence of ice and snow on leaves and ground (Cohen, 2003; Tian et al., 2004). Seasonal changes in leaf pigments can also be another reason for low LAI retrieved in winter. Low conifer LAI values in winter retrieved from remote sensing make them unusable for surface energy budget calculations. To avoid these drawbacks of remote sensing approaches, we attempt to reconstruct the seasonal LAI trajectory through model-data fusion. A 1-degree LAI map of global evergreen needle-leaf forests at 10-day interval is produced based on the carbon allocation principle in trees. With net primary productivity (NPP) calculated by the Boreal Ecosystems Productivity Simulator (BEPS) (Chen et al., 1999), carbon allocated to needles is quantitatively evaluated and then can be further transformed into LAI using the specific leaf area (SLA). A leaf-fall scheme is developed to mimic the carbon loss caused by falling needles throughout the year. The seasonally maximum LAI from remote sensing data for each pixel

  15. Prediction of seasonal climate-induced variations in global food production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iizumi, Toshichika; Sakuma, Hirofumi; Yokozawa, Masayuki; Luo, Jing-Jia; Challinor, Andrew J.; Brown, Molly E.; Sakurai, Gen; Yamagata, Toshio

    2013-10-01

    Consumers, including the poor in many countries, are increasingly dependent on food imports and are thus exposed to variations in yields, production and export prices in the major food-producing regions of the world. National governments and commercial entities are therefore paying increased attention to the cropping forecasts of important food-exporting countries as well as to their own domestic food production. Given the increased volatility of food markets and the rising incidence of climatic extremes affecting food production, food price spikes may increase in prevalence in future years. Here we present a global assessment of the reliability of crop failure hindcasts for major crops at two lead times derived by linking ensemble seasonal climatic forecasts with statistical crop models. We found that moderate-to-marked yield loss over a substantial percentage (26-33%) of the harvested area of these crops is reliably predictable if climatic forecasts are near perfect. However, only rice and wheat production are reliably predictable at three months before the harvest using within-season hindcasts. The reliabilities of estimates varied substantially by crop--rice and wheat yields were the most predictable, followed by soybean and maize. The reasons for variation in the reliability of the estimates included the differences in crop sensitivity to the climate and the technology used by the crop-producing regions. Our findings reveal that the use of seasonal climatic forecasts to predict crop failures will be useful for monitoring global food production and will encourage the adaptation of food systems toclimatic extremes.

  16. Whole-word response scoring underestimates functional spelling ability for some individuals with global agraphia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Tesla Demarco

    2015-05-01

    These data suggest that conventional whole-word scoring may significantly underestimate functional spelling performance. Because by-letter scoring boosted pre-treatment scores to the same extent as post-treatment scores, the magnitude of treatment gains was no greater than estimates from conventional whole-word scoring. Nonetheless, the surprisingly large disparity between conventional whole-word scoring and by-letter scoring suggests that by-letter scoring methods may warrant further investigation. Because by-letter analyses may hold interest to others, we plan to make the software tool used in this study available on-line for use to researchers and clinicians at large.

  17. Global emissions of refrigerants HCFC-22 and HFC-134a: Unforeseen seasonal contributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiang, Bin; Montzka, Stephen A.; Miller, Scot M.; Elkins, James W.; Moore, Fred L.; Atlas, Elliot L.; Miller, Ben R.; Weiss, Ray F.; Prinn, Ronald G.; Wofsy, Steven C.

    2014-01-01

    HCFC-22 (CHClF2) and HFC-134a (CH2FCF3) are two major gases currently used worldwide in domestic and commercial refrigeration and air conditioning. HCFC-22 contributes to stratospheric ozone depletion, and both species are potent greenhouse gases. In this work, we study in situ observations of HCFC-22 and HFC-134a taken from research aircraft over the Pacific Ocean in a 3-y span [HIaper-Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) 2009–2011] and combine these data with long-term ground observations from global surface sites [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) networks]. We find the global annual emissions of HCFC-22 and HFC-134a have increased substantially over the past two decades. Emissions of HFC-134a are consistently higher compared with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) inventory since 2000, by 60% more in recent years (2009–2012). Apart from these decadal emission constraints, we also quantify recent seasonal emission patterns showing that summertime emissions of HCFC-22 and HFC-134a are two to three times higher than wintertime emissions. This unforeseen large seasonal variation indicates that unaccounted mechanisms controlling refrigerant gas emissions are missing in the existing inventory estimates. Possible mechanisms enhancing refrigerant losses in summer are (i) higher vapor pressure in the sealed compartment of the system at summer high temperatures and (ii) more frequent use and service of refrigerators and air conditioners in summer months. Our results suggest that engineering (e.g., better temperature/vibration-resistant system sealing and new system design of more compact/efficient components) and regulatory (e.g., reinforcing system service regulations) steps to improve containment of these gases from working devices could effectively reduce their release to the atmosphere. PMID:25422438

  18. Pre-season adductor squeeze test and HAGOS function sport and recreation subscale scores predict groin injury in Gaelic football players.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delahunt, Eamonn; Fitzpatrick, Helen; Blake, Catherine

    2017-01-01

    To determine if pre-season adductor squeeze test and HAGOS function, sport and recreation subscale scores can identify Gaelic football players at risk of developing groin injury. Prospective study. Senior inter-county Gaelic football team. Fifty-five male elite Gaelic football players (age = 24.0 ± 2.8 years, body mass = 84.48 ± 7.67 kg, height = 1.85 ± 0.06 m, BMI = 24.70 ± 1.77 kg/m 2 ) from a single senior inter-county Gaelic football team. Occurrence of groin injury during the season. Ten time-loss groin injuries were registered representing 13% of all injuries. The odds ratio for sustaining a groin injury if pre-season adductor squeeze test score was below 225 mmHg, was 7.78. The odds ratio for sustaining a groin injury if pre-season HAGOS function, sport and recreation subscale score was football players at risk of developing groin injury. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. The global distribution of leaf chlorophyll content and seasonal controls on carbon uptake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Croft, H.; Chen, J. M.; Luo, X.; Bartlett, P. A.; Staebler, R. M.; He, L.; Mo, G.; Luo, S.; Simic, A.; Arabian, J.; He, Y.; Zhang, Y.; Beringer, J.; Hutley, L. B.; Noland, T. L.; Arellano, P.; Stahl, C.; Homolová, L.; Bonal, D.; Malenovský, Z.; Yi, Q.; Amiri, R.

    2017-12-01

    Leaf chlorophyll (ChlLeaf) is crucial to biosphere-atmosphere exchanges of carbon and water, and the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems. Improving the accuracy of modelled photosynthetic carbon uptake is a central priority for understanding ecosystem response to a changing climate. A source of uncertainty within gross primary productivity (GPP) estimates is the failure to explicitly consider seasonal controls on leaf photosynthetic potential. Whilst the inclusion of ChlLeafinto carbon models has shown potential to provide a physiological constraint, progress has been hampered by the absence of a spatially-gridded, global chlorophyll product. Here, we present the first spatially-continuous, global view of terrestrial ChlLeaf, at weekly intervals. Satellite-derived ChlLeaf was modelled using a physically-based radiative transfer modelling approach, with a two stage model inversion method. 4-Scale and SAIL canopy models were first used to model leaf-level reflectance from ENIVSAT MERIS 300m satellite data. The PROSPECT leaf model was then used to derive ChlLeaf from the modelled leaf reflectance. This algorithm was validated using measured ChlLeaf data from 248 measurements within 26 field locations, covering six plant functional types (PFTs). Modelled results show very good relationships with measured data, particularly for deciduous broadleaf forests (R2 = 0.67; pmake an important step towards improving the accuracy of global carbon budgets.

  20. Guiding automated NMR structure determination using a global optimization metric, the NMR DP score

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huang, Yuanpeng Janet, E-mail: yphuang@cabm.rutgers.edu; Mao, Binchen; Xu, Fei; Montelione, Gaetano T., E-mail: gtm@rutgers.edu [Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Department of Molecular Biology and Biochemistry, Center for Advanced Biotechnology and Medicine, and Northeast Structural Genomics Consortium (United States)

    2015-08-15

    ASDP is an automated NMR NOE assignment program. It uses a distinct bottom-up topology-constrained network anchoring approach for NOE interpretation, with 2D, 3D and/or 4D NOESY peak lists and resonance assignments as input, and generates unambiguous NOE constraints for iterative structure calculations. ASDP is designed to function interactively with various structure determination programs that use distance restraints to generate molecular models. In the CASD–NMR project, ASDP was tested and further developed using blinded NMR data, including resonance assignments, either raw or manually-curated (refined) NOESY peak list data, and in some cases {sup 15}N–{sup 1}H residual dipolar coupling data. In these blinded tests, in which the reference structure was not available until after structures were generated, the fully-automated ASDP program performed very well on all targets using both the raw and refined NOESY peak list data. Improvements of ASDP relative to its predecessor program for automated NOESY peak assignments, AutoStructure, were driven by challenges provided by these CASD–NMR data. These algorithmic improvements include (1) using a global metric of structural accuracy, the discriminating power score, for guiding model selection during the iterative NOE interpretation process, and (2) identifying incorrect NOESY cross peak assignments caused by errors in the NMR resonance assignment list. These improvements provide a more robust automated NOESY analysis program, ASDP, with the unique capability of being utilized with alternative structure generation and refinement programs including CYANA, CNS, and/or Rosetta.

  1. Effects of Global Warming on Predatory Bugs Supported by Data Across Geographic and Seasonal Climatic Gradients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuldiner-Harpaz, Tarryn; Coll, Moshe

    2013-01-01

    Global warming may affect species abundance and distribution, as well as temperature-dependent morphometric traits. In this study, we first used historical data to document changes in Orius (Heteroptera: Anthocoridae) species assemblage and individual morphometric traits over the past seven decades in Israel. We then tested whether these changes could have been temperature driven by searching for similar patterns across seasonal and geographic climatic gradients in a present survey. The historical records indicated a shift in the relative abundance of dominant Orius species; the relative abundance of O. albidipennis, a desert-adapted species, increased while that of O. laevigatus decreased in recent decades by 6 and 10–15 folds, respectively. These shifts coincided with an overall increase of up to 2.1°C in mean daily temperatures over the last 25 years in Israel. Similar trends were found in contemporary data across two other climatic gradients, seasonal and geographic; O. albidipennis dominated Orius assemblages under warm conditions. Finally, specimens collected in the present survey were significantly smaller than those from the 1980’s, corresponding to significantly smaller individuals collected now during warmer than colder seasons. Taken together, results provide strong support to the hypothesis that temperature is the most likely driver of the observed shifts in species composition and body sizes because (1) historical changes in both species assemblage and body size were associated with rising temperatures in the study region over the last few decades; and (2) similar changes were observed as a result of contemporary drivers that are associated with temperature. PMID:23805249

  2. TES ammonia retrieval strategy and global observations of the spatial and seasonal variability of ammonia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. W. Shephard

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Presently only limited sets of tropospheric ammonia (NH3 measurements in the Earth's atmosphere have been reported from satellite and surface station measurements, despite the well-documented negative impact of NH3 on the environment and human health. Presented here is a detailed description of the satellite retrieval strategy and analysis for the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES using simulations and measurements. These results show that: (i the level of detectability for a representative boundary layer TES NH3 mixing ratio value is ~0.4 ppbv, which typically corresponds to a profile that contains a maximum level value of ~1 ppbv; (ii TES NH3 retrievals generally provide at most one degree of freedom for signal (DOFS, with peak sensitivity between 700 and 900 mbar; (iii TES NH3 retrievals show significant spatial and seasonal variability of NH3 globally; (iv initial comparisons of TES observations with GEOS-CHEM estimates show TES values being higher overall. Important differences and similarities between modeled and observed seasonal and spatial trends are noted, with discrepancies indicating areas where the timing and magnitude of modeled NH3 emissions from agricultural sources, and to lesser extent biomass burning sources, need further study.

  3. Methanol from TES global observations: retrieval algorithm and seasonal and spatial variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. E. Cady-Pereira

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available We present a detailed description of the TES methanol (CH3OH retrieval algorithm, along with initial global results showing the seasonal and spatial distribution of methanol in the lower troposphere. The full development of the TES methanol retrieval is described, including microwindow selection, error analysis, and the utilization of a priori and initial guess information provided by the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model. Retrieval simulations and a sensitivity analysis using the developed retrieval strategy show that TES: (i generally provides less than 1.0 piece of information, (ii is sensitive in the lower troposphere with peak sensitivity typically occurring between ~900–700 hPa (~1–3 km at a vertical resolution of ~5 km, (iii has a limit of detectability between 0.5 and 1.0 ppbv Representative Volume Mixing Ratio (RVMR depending on the atmospheric conditions, corresponding roughly to a profile with a maximum concentration of at least 1 to 2 ppbv, and (iv in a simulation environment has a mean bias of 0.16 ppbv with a standard deviation of 0.34 ppbv. Applying the newly derived TES retrieval globally and comparing the results with corresponding GEOS-Chem output, we find generally consistent large-scale patterns between the two. However, TES often reveals higher methanol concentrations than simulated in the Northern Hemisphere spring, summer and fall. In the Southern Hemisphere, the TES methanol observations indicate a model overestimate over the bulk of South America from December through July, and a model underestimate during the biomass burning season.

  4. Exploring diurnal and seasonal characteristics of global carbon cycle with GISS Model E2 GCM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aleinov, I. D.; Kiang, N. Y.; Romanou, A.

    2017-12-01

    The ability to properly model surface carbon fluxes on the diurnal and seasonal time scale is a necessary requirement for understanding of the global carbon cycle. It is also one of the most challenging tasks faced by modern General Circulation Models (GCMs) due to complexity of the algorithms and variety of relevant spatial and temporal scales. The observational data, though abundant, is difficult to interpret at the global scale, because flux tower observations are very sparse for large impact areas (such as Amazon and African rainforest and most of Siberia) and satellite missions often struggle to produce sufficiently high confidence data over the land and may be missing CO2 amounts near the surface due to the nature of the method. In this work we use the GISS Model E2 GCM to perform a subset of experiments proposed by the Coupled Climate-Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) and relate the results to available observations.The GISS Model E2 GCM is currently equipped with a complete global carbon cycle algorithm. Its surface carbon fluxes are computed by the Ent Terrestrial Biosphere Model (Ent TBM) over the land with observed leaf area index of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) and by the NASA Ocean Biogeochemistry Model (NOBM) over the ocean. The propagation of atmospheric CO2 is performed by a generic Model E2 tracer algorithm, which is based on a quadratic upstream method (Prather 1986). We perform a series spin-up experiments for preindustrial climate conditions and fixed preindustrial atmospheric CO2 concentration. First, we perform separate spin-up simulations each for terrestrial and ocean carbon. We then combine the spun-up states and perform a coupled spin-up simulation until the model reaches a sufficient equilibrium. We then release restrictions on CO2 concentration and allow it evolve freely, driven only by simulated surface fluxes. We then study the results of the unforced run, comparing the amplitude and the phase

  5. Neuropsychological profile in Chinese patients with Parkinson's disease and normal global cognition according to Mini-Mental State Examination Score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiao, Jin; Zheng, Xiyuan; Wang, Xiaoyan; Lu, Wenhui; Cao, Hongmei; Qin, Xing

    2015-01-01

    Cognitive impairments have been reported to be more common in non-demented patients with Parkinson's disease (PD) and education levels play an important role in intelligence. The studies on cognitive impairments in Chinese PD patients with higher education levels and normal global cognition according to Mini-Mental State Examination Score (MMSE) have not been reported. We enrolled 69 consecutive PD patients with over 6 years education levels and a MMSE score above 24 (of 30) and performed a battery of neuropsychological scales. There are extensive cognitive domain impairments in PD patients with "normal" global cognitive according to MMSE. Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) is a highly sensitive scale to screen cognitive impairments in PD. The cutoff score of 28 on the MMSE screening for cognitive impairment in Chinese PD patients with high education levels may be more appropriate.

  6. Global seasonal strain and stress models derived from GRACE loading, and their impact on seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chanard, K.; Fleitout, L.; Calais, E.; Craig, T. J.; Rebischung, P.; Avouac, J. P.

    2017-12-01

    Loading by continental water, atmosphere and oceans deforms the Earth at various spatio-temporal scales, inducing crustal and mantelic stress perturbations that may play a role in earthquake triggering.Deformation of the Earth by this surface loading is observed in GNSS position time series. While various models predict well vertical observations, explaining horizontal displacements remains challenging. We model the elastic deformation induced by loading derived from GRACE for coefficients 2 and higher. We estimate the degree-1 deformation field by comparison between predictions of our model and IGS-repro2 solutions at a globally distributed network of 700 GNSS sites, separating the horizontal and vertical components to avoid biases between components. The misfit between model and data is reduced compared to previous studies, particularly on the horizontal component. The associated geocenter motion time series are consistent with results derived from other datasets. We also discuss the impact on our results of systematic errors in GNSS geodetic products, in particular of the draconitic error.We then compute stress tensors time series induced by GRACE loads and discuss the potential link between large scale seasonal mass redistributions and seismicity. Within the crust, we estimate hydrologically induced stresses in the intraplate New Madrid Seismic Zone, where secular stressing rates are unmeasurably low. We show that a significant variation in the rate of micro-earthquakes at annual and multi-annual timescales coincides with stresses induced by hydrological loading in the upper Mississippi embayment, with no significant phase-lag, directly modulating regional seismicity. We also investigate pressure variations in the mantle transition zone and discuss potential correlations between the statistically significant observed seasonality of deep-focus earthquakes, most likely due to mineralogical transformations, and surface hydrological loading.

  7. Integrated rice-duck farming mitigates the global warming potential in rice season.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Guochun; Liu, Xin; Wang, Qiangsheng; Yu, Xichen; Hang, Yuhao

    2017-01-01

    Integrated rice-duck farming (IRDF), as a mode of ecological agriculture, is an important way to realize sustainable development of agriculture. A 2-year split-plot field experiment was performed to evaluate the effects of IRDF on methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions and its ecological mechanism in rice season. This experiment was conducted with two rice farming systems (FS) of IRDF and conventional farming (CF) under four paddy-upland rotation systems (PUR): rice-fallow (RF), annual straw incorporating in rice-wheat rotation system (RWS), annual straw-based biogas residues incorporating in rice-wheat rotation system (RWB), and rice-green manure (RGM). During the rice growing seasons, IRDF decreased the CH 4 emission by 8.80-16.68%, while increased the N 2 O emission by 4.23-15.20%, when compared to CF. Given that CH 4 emission contributed to 85.83-96.22% of global warming potential (GWP), the strong reduction in CH 4 emission led to a significantly lower GWP of IRDF as compared to CF. The reason for this trend was because IRDF has significant effect on dissolved oxygen (DO) and soil redox potential (Eh), which were two pivotal factors for CH 4 and N 2 O emissions in this study. The IRDF not only mitigates the GWP, but also increases the rice yield by 0.76-2.43% compared to CF. Moreover, compared to RWS system, RF, RWB and RGM systems significantly reduced CH 4 emission by 50.17%, 44.89% and 39.51%, respectively, while increased N 2 O emission by 10.58%, 14.60% and 23.90%, respectively. And RWS system had the highest GWP. These findings suggest that mitigating GWP and improving rice yield could be simultaneously achieved by the IRDF, and employing suitable PUR would benefit for relieving greenhouse effect. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. The influence of eruption season on the global aerosol evolution and radiative impact of tropical volcanic eruptions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Toohey

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Simulations of tropical volcanic eruptions using a general circulation model with coupled aerosol microphysics are used to assess the influence of season of eruption on the aerosol evolution and radiative impacts at the Earth's surface. This analysis is presented for eruptions with SO2 injection magnitudes of 17 and 700 Tg, the former consistent with estimates of the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption, the later a near-"super eruption". For each eruption magnitude, simulations are performed with eruptions at 15° N, at four equally spaced times of year. Sensitivity to eruption season of aerosol optical depth (AOD, clear-sky and all-sky shortwave (SW radiative flux is quantified by first integrating each field for four years after the eruption, then calculating for each cumulative field the absolute or percent difference between the maximum and minimum response from the four eruption seasons. Eruption season has a significant influence on AOD and clear-sky SW radiative flux anomalies for both eruption magnitudes. The sensitivity to eruption season for both fields is generally weak in the tropics, but increases in the mid- and high latitudes, reaching maximum values of ~75 %. Global mean AOD and clear-sky SW anomalies show sensitivity to eruption season on the order of 15–20 %, which results from differences in aerosol effective radius for the different eruption seasons. Smallest aerosol size and largest cumulative impact result from a January eruption for Pinatubo-magnitude eruption, and from a July eruption for the near-super eruption. In contrast to AOD and clear-sky SW anomalies, all-sky SW anomalies are found to be insensitive to season of eruption for the Pinatubo-magnitude eruption experiment, due to the reflection of solar radiation by clouds in the mid- to high latitudes. However, differences in all-sky SW anomalies between eruptions in different seasons are significant for the larger eruption magnitude, and the ~15 % sensitivity to

  9. Reliability of ultrasound grading traditional score and new global OMERACT-EULAR score system (GLOESS): results from an inter- and intra-reading exercise by rheumatologists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ventura-Ríos, Lucio; Hernández-Díaz, Cristina; Ferrusquia-Toríz, Diana; Cruz-Arenas, Esteban; Rodríguez-Henríquez, Pedro; Alvarez Del Castillo, Ana Laura; Campaña-Parra, Alfredo; Canul, Efrén; Guerrero Yeo, Gerardo; Mendoza-Ruiz, Juan Jorge; Pérez Cristóbal, Mario; Sicsik, Sandra; Silva Luna, Karina

    2017-12-01

    This study aims to test the reliability of ultrasound to graduate synovitis in static and video images, evaluating separately grayscale and power Doppler (PD), and combined. Thirteen trained rheumatologist ultrasonographers participated in two separate rounds reading 42 images, 15 static and 27 videos, of the 7-joint count [wrist, 2nd and 3rd metacarpophalangeal (MCP), 2nd and 3rd interphalangeal (IPP), 2nd and 5th metatarsophalangeal (MTP) joints]. The images were from six patients with rheumatoid arthritis, performed by one ultrasonographer. Synovitis definition was according to OMERACT. Scoring system in grayscale, PD separately, and combined (GLOESS-Global OMERACT-EULAR Score System) were reviewed before exercise. Reliability intra- and inter-reading was calculated with Cohen's kappa weighted, according to Landis and Koch. Kappa values for inter-reading were good to excellent. The minor kappa was for GLOESS in static images, and the highest was for the same scoring in videos (k 0.59 and 0.85, respectively). Excellent values were obtained for static PD in 5th MTP joint and for PD video in 2nd MTP joint. Results for GLOESS in general were good to moderate. Poor agreement was observed in 3rd MCP and 3rd IPP in all kinds of images. Intra-reading agreement were greater in grayscale and GLOESS in static images than in videos (k 0.86 vs. 0.77 and k 0.86 vs. 0.71, respectively), but PD was greater in videos than in static images (k 1.0 vs. 0.79). The reliability of the synovitis scoring through static images and videos is in general good to moderate when using grayscale and PD separately or combined.

  10. The effect of length, duration, and intensity of psychological therapy on CORE global distress scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Lauren Jayne; Beck, Alison; Burdett, Mark

    2017-09-01

    This study explores whether improvements, as measured by the CORE-OM/10, as a result of psychological therapy were related to length of treatment in weeks, number of treatment sessions, or treatment intensity, as well as any effect of diagnostic group. Pre- and post-therapy CORE-OM/10 scores were extracted from the clinical records of all secondary care adult psychological therapy team patients who undertook psychological therapy between 2010 and 2013 in one mental health trust. Of the 4,877 patients identified, 925 had complete records. Length of therapy was divided by the number of sessions to create 'treatment intensity' (sessions per week). Nonparametric analyses were used, initial score was controlled for, and diagnostic group was explored. No relationship was found between change in score and the number of sessions, therapy length, or treatment intensity; however, change in score was positively correlated with first-session score. Patients with higher initial scores had longer therapies; however, treatment intensity was similar for patients with lower pre-therapy distress. There were differences in treatment length (weeks) between diagnostic groups. Demographic differences were found between patients with and without complete records, prompting caution in terms of generalizability. These findings are consistent with the responsive regulation model (Barkham et al., 1996) which proposes that patients vary in their response to treatment, resulting in no associations between session numbers or treatment intensity and therapeutic gain with aggregated scores. Patients with higher CORE scores at the outset of psychological therapy had longer not more intensive therapy. There was variation in treatment intensity between diagnostic clusters. Number of sessions, length of therapy (in weeks), and treatment intensity (the number of sessions per week between the first and last therapy sessions) were not related to therapeutic gains. These results fit with a responsive

  11. Seasonal and global behavior of water vapor in the Mars atmosphere: Complete global results of the Viking atmospheric water detector experiment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jakosky, B.M.; Farmer, C.B.

    1982-01-01

    The water vapor content of the Mars atmosphere was measured from the Viking Orbiter Mars Atmospheric Water Detectors (MAWD) for a period of more than 1 Martian year, from June 1976 through April 1979. Results are presented in the form of global maps of column abundance for 24 periods throughout each Mars year. The data reduction incorporates spatial and seasonal variations in surface pressure and supplements earlier published versions of less complete data

  12. Assessment of GloSea4 seasonal forecasts for SADC and the global oceans

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available totals during the austral spring (SON), mid-summer (DJF) and autumn (MAM) seasons in the region, and by testing for monthly sea-surface temperature anomalies during mid-summer. The model’s ability to simulate the region’s intra-seasonal rainfall and low...

  13. Global and Seasonal Distributions of CHOCHO and HCHO Observed by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument on EOS Aura

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurosu, T. P.; Fu, T.; Volkamer, R.; Millet, D. B.; Chance, K.

    2006-12-01

    Over the two years since its launch in July 2004, the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on EOS Aura has demonstrated the capability to routinely monitor the volatile organic compounds (VOCs) formaldehyde (HCHO) and glyoxal (CHOCHO). OMI's daily global coverage and spatial resolution as high as 13x24 km provides a unique data set of these molecules for the study of air quality from space. We present the first study of global seasonal distributions of CHOCHO from space, derived from a year of OMI observations. CHOCHO distributions are compared to simultaneous retrievals of HCHO from OMI, providing a first indication of seasonally resolved ratios of these VOCs on a global scale. Satellite retrievals are compared to global simulations of HCHO and CHOCHO, based on current knowledge of sources and sinks, using the GEOS-Chem global chemistry and transport model. Formaldehyde is both directly emitted and also produced from the oxidation of many VOCs, notably biogenic isoprene, and is removed by photolysis and oxidation. Precursors of glyoxal include isoprene, monoterpenes, and aromatics from anthropogenic, biogenic, and biomass burning emissions; it is removed by photolysis, oxidation by OH, dry/wet deposition, and aerosol uptake. As a case study, satellite observations will also be compared to ground-based measurements taken during the Pearl River Delta 2006 field campaign near Guangzhou, China, where high glyoxal concentrations are frequently observed from space.

  14. Validity Evidence for the Interpretation and Use of Essential Elements of Communication Global Rating Scale Scores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, Nancy Rhoda

    2015-01-01

    Purpose. Clinical communication influences health outcomes, so medical schools are charged to prepare future physicians with the skills they need to interact effectively with patients. Communication leaders at The University of New Mexico School of Medicine (UNMSOM) developed The Essential Elements of Communication-Global Rating Scale (EEC-GRS) to…

  15. Posttraumatic stress disorder among refugees: Measurement invariance of Harvard Trauma Questionnaire scores across global regions and response patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasmussen, Andrew; Verkuilen, Jay; Ho, Emily; Fan, Yuyu

    2015-12-01

    Despite the central role of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in international humanitarian aid work, there has been little examination of the measurement invariance of PTSD measures across culturally defined refugee subgroups. This leaves mental health workers in disaster settings with little to support inferences made using the results of standard clinical assessment tools, such as the severity of symptoms and prevalence rates. We examined measurement invariance in scores from the most widely used PTSD measure in refugee populations, the Harvard Trauma Questionnaire (HTQ; Mollica et al., 1992), in a multinational and multilingual sample of asylum seekers from 81 countries of origin in 11 global regions. Clustering HTQ responses to justify grouping regional groups by response patterns resulted in 3 groups for testing measurement invariance: West Africans, Himalayans, and all others. Comparing log-likelihood ratios showed that while configural invariance seemed to hold, metric and scalar invariance did not. These findings call into question the common practice of using standard cut-off scores on PTSD measures across culturally dissimilar refugee populations. In addition, high correlation between factors suggests that the construct validity of scores from North American and European measures of PTSD may not hold globally. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  16. State-trait decomposition of Name Letter Test scores and relationships with global self-esteem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perinelli, Enrico; Alessandri, Guido; Donnellan, M Brent; Łaguna, Mariola

    2018-06-01

    The Name Letter Test (NLT) assesses the degree that participants show a preference for an individual's own initials. The NLT was often thought to measure implicit self-esteem, but recent literature reviews do not equivocally support this hypothesis. Several authors have argued that the NLT is most strongly associated with the state component of self-esteem. The current research uses a modified STARTS model to (a) estimate the percentage of stable and transient components of the NLT and (b) estimate the covariances between stable/transient components of the NLT and stable/transient components of self-esteem and positive and negative affect. Two longitudinal studies were conducted with different time lags: In Study 1, participants were assessed daily for 7 consecutive days, whereas in Study 2, participants were assessed weekly for 8 consecutive weeks. Participants also completed a battery of questionnaires including global self-esteem, positive affect, and negative affect. In both studies, the NLT showed (a) high stability across time, (b) a high percentage of stable variance, (c) no significant covariance with stable and transient factors for global self-esteem, and (d) a different pattern of correlations with stable and transient factors of affect than global self-esteem. Collectively, these results further undermine the claim that the NLT is a valid measure of implicit self-esteem. Future work is needed to identify theoretically grounded correlates of the NLT. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  17. Seasonality of global and Arctic black carbon processes in the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme models: Global and Arctic Black Carbon Processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahmood, Rashed [School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria British Columbia Canada; Department of Meteorology, COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, Islamabad Pakistan; von Salzen, Knut [School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria British Columbia Canada; Canadian Center for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, University of Victoria, Victoria British Columbia Canada; Flanner, Mark [Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor Michigan USA; Sand, Maria [Center for International Climate and Environmental Research-Oslo, Oslo Norway; Langner, Joakim [Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping Sweden; Wang, Hailong [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Huang, Lin [Climate Chemistry Measurements and Research, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto Ontario Canada

    2016-06-22

    This study quantifies black carbon (BC) processes in three global climate models and one chemistry transport model, with focus on the seasonality of BC transport, emissions, wet and dry deposition in the Arctic. In the models, transport of BC to the Arctic from lower latitudes is the major BC source for this region while Arctic emissions are very small. All models simulated a similar annual cycle of BC transport from lower latitudes to the Arctic, with maximum transport occurring in July. Substantial differences were found in simulated BC burdens and vertical distributions, with CanAM (NorESM) producing the strongest (weakest) seasonal cycle. CanAM also has the shortest annual mean residence time for BC in the Arctic followed by SMHI-MATCH, CESM and NorESM. The relative contribution of wet and dry deposition rates in removing BC varies seasonally and is one of the major factors causing seasonal variations in BC burdens in the Arctic. Overall, considerable differences in wet deposition efficiencies in the models exist and are a leading cause of differences in simulated BC burdens. Results from model sensitivity experiments indicate that scavenging of BC in convective clouds acts to substantially increase the overall efficiency of BC wet deposition in the Arctic, which leads to low BC burdens and a more pronounced seasonal cycle compared to simulations without convective BC scavenging. In contrast, the simulated seasonality of BC concentrations in the upper troposphere is only weakly influenced by wet deposition in stratiform (layer) clouds whereas lower tropospheric concentrations are highly sensitive.

  18. Evolution of Indian Ocean biases in the summer monsoon season hindcasts from the Met Office Global Seasonal Forecasting System GloSea5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chevuturi, A.; Turner, A. G.; Woolnough, S. J.

    2016-12-01

    In this study we investigate the development of biases in the Indian Ocean region in summer hindcasts of the UK Met Office coupled initialised global seasonal forecasting system, GloSea5-GC2. Previous work has demonstrated the rapid evolution of strong monsoon circulation biases over India from seasonal forecasts initialised in early May, together with coupled strong easterly wind biases on the equator. We analyse a set of three springtime start dates for the 20-year hindcast period (1992-2011) and fifteen total ensemble members for each year. We use comparisons with a variety of observations to test the rate of evolving mean-state biases in the Arabian Sea, over India, and over the equatorial Indian Ocean. Biases are all shown to develop rapidly, particularly for the circulation bias over India that is connected to convection. These circulation biases later reach the surface and lead to responses in Arabian Sea SST in accordance with coastal and Ekman upwelling processes. We also assess the evolution of radiation and turbulent heat fluxes at the surface. Meanwhile at the equator, easterly biases in surface winds are shown to develop rapidly, consistent with an SST pattern that is consistent with positive-Indian Ocean dipole mean state conditions (warm western equatorial Indian Ocean, cold east). This bias develops consistent with coupled ocean-atmosphere exchanges and Bjerknes feedback. We hypothesize that lower tropospheric easterly wind biases developing in the equatorial region originate from the surface, and also that signals of the cold bias in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean propagate to the Bay of Bengal via coastal Kelvin waves. Earlier work has shown the utility of wind-stress corrections in the Indian Ocean for correcting the easterly winds bias there and ultimately improving the evolution of the Indian Ocean Dipole. We identify and test this wind-stress correction technique in case study years from the hindcast period to see their impact on seasonal

  19. Alimentary Habits, Physical Activity, and Framingham Global Risk Score in Metabolic Syndrome

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soares, Thays Soliman; Piovesan, Carla Haas; Gustavo, Andréia da Silva; Macagnan, Fabrício Edler; Bodanese, Luiz Carlos; Feoli, Ana Maria Pandolfo, E-mail: anamariafeoli@hotmail.com [Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio Grande do Sul (PUCRS), Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil)

    2014-04-15

    Metabolic syndrome is a complex disorder represented by a set of cardiovascular risk factors. A healthy lifestyle is strongly related to improve Quality of Life and interfere positively in the control of risk factors presented in this condition. To evaluate the effect of a program of lifestyle modification on the Framingham General Cardiovascular Risk Profile in subjects diagnosed with metabolic syndrome. A sub-analysis study of a randomized clinical trial controlled blind that lasted three months. Participants were randomized into four groups: dietary intervention + placebo (DIP), dietary intervention + supplementation of omega 3 (fish oil 3 g/day) (DIS3), dietary intervention + placebo + physical activity (DIPE) and dietary intervention + physical activity + supplementation of omega 3 (DIS3PE). The general cardiovascular risk profile of each individual was calculated before and after the intervention. The study included 70 subjects. Evaluating the score between the pre and post intervention yielded a significant value (p < 0.001). We obtained a reduction for intermediate risk in 25.7% of subjects. After intervention, there was a significant reduction (p < 0.01) on cardiovascular age, this being more significant in groups DIP (5.2%) and DIPE (5.3%). Proposed interventions produced beneficial effects for reducing cardiovascular risk score. This study emphasizes the importance of lifestyle modification in the prevention and treatment of cardiovascular diseases.

  20. Alimentary Habits, Physical Activity, and Framingham Global Risk Score in Metabolic Syndrome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soares, Thays Soliman; Piovesan, Carla Haas; Gustavo, Andréia da Silva; Macagnan, Fabrício Edler; Bodanese, Luiz Carlos; Feoli, Ana Maria Pandolfo

    2014-01-01

    Metabolic syndrome is a complex disorder represented by a set of cardiovascular risk factors. A healthy lifestyle is strongly related to improve Quality of Life and interfere positively in the control of risk factors presented in this condition. To evaluate the effect of a program of lifestyle modification on the Framingham General Cardiovascular Risk Profile in subjects diagnosed with metabolic syndrome. A sub-analysis study of a randomized clinical trial controlled blind that lasted three months. Participants were randomized into four groups: dietary intervention + placebo (DIP), dietary intervention + supplementation of omega 3 (fish oil 3 g/day) (DIS3), dietary intervention + placebo + physical activity (DIPE) and dietary intervention + physical activity + supplementation of omega 3 (DIS3PE). The general cardiovascular risk profile of each individual was calculated before and after the intervention. The study included 70 subjects. Evaluating the score between the pre and post intervention yielded a significant value (p < 0.001). We obtained a reduction for intermediate risk in 25.7% of subjects. After intervention, there was a significant reduction (p < 0.01) on cardiovascular age, this being more significant in groups DIP (5.2%) and DIPE (5.3%). Proposed interventions produced beneficial effects for reducing cardiovascular risk score. This study emphasizes the importance of lifestyle modification in the prevention and treatment of cardiovascular diseases

  1. Seasonal patterns in human A (H5N1 virus infection: analysis of global cases.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maya B Mathur

    Full Text Available Human cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI A (H5N1 have high mortality. Despite abundant data on seasonal patterns in influenza epidemics, it is unknown whether similar patterns exist for human HPAI H5N1 cases worldwide. Such knowledge could help decrease avian-to-human transmission through increased prevention and control activities during peak periods.We performed a systematic search of published human HPAI H5N1 cases to date, collecting month, year, country, season, hemisphere, and climate data. We used negative binomial regression to predict changes in case incidence as a function of season. To investigate hemisphere as a potential moderator, we used AIC and the likelihood-ratio test to compare the season-only model to nested models including a main effect or interaction with hemisphere. Finally, we visually assessed replication of seasonal patterns across climate groups based on the Köppen-Geiger climate classification.We identified 617 human cases (611 with complete seasonal data occurring in 15 countries in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. Case occurrence was much higher in winter (n = 285, p = 0.03 than summer (n = 64, and the winter peak occurred across diverse climate groups. There was no significant interaction between hemisphere and season.Across diverse climates, HPAI H5N1 virus infection in humans increases significantly in winter. This is consistent with increased poultry outbreaks and HPAI H5N1 virus transmission during cold and dry conditions. Prioritizing prevention and control activities among poultry and focusing public health messaging to reduce poultry exposures during winter months may help to reduce zoonotic transmission of HPAI H5N1 virus in resource-limited settings.

  2. Global warming related transient albedo feedback in the Arctic and its relation to the seasonality of sea ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andry, Olivier; Bintanja, Richard; Hazeleger, Wilco

    2015-04-01

    The Arctic is warming two to three times faster than the global average. Arctic sea ice cover is very sensitive to this warming and has reached historic minima in late summer in recent years (i.e. 2007, 2012). Considering that the Arctic Ocean is mainly ice-covered and that the albedo of sea ice is very high compared to that of open water, the change in sea ice cover is very likely to have a strong impact on the local surface albedo feedback. Here we quantify the temporal changes in surface albedo feedback in response to global warming. Usually feedbacks are evaluated as being representative and constant for long time periods, but we show here that the strength of climate feedbacks in fact varies strongly with time. For instance, time series of the amplitude of the surface albedo feedback, derived from future climate simulations (CIMP5, RCP8.5 up to year 2300) using a kernel method, peaks around the year 2100. This maximum is likely caused by an increased seasonality in sea-ice cover that is inherently associated with sea ice retreat. We demonstrate that the Arctic average surface albedo has a strong seasonal signature with a maximum in spring and a minimum in late summer/autumn. In winter when incoming solar radiation is minimal the surface albedo doesn't have an important effect on the energy balance of the climate system. The annual mean surface albedo is thus determined by the seasonality of both downwelling shortwave radiation and sea ice cover. As sea ice cover reduces the seasonal signature is modified, the transient part from maximum sea ice cover to its minimum is shortened and sharpened. The sea ice cover is reduced when downwelling shortwave radiation is maximum and thus the annual surface albedo is drastically smaller. Consequently the change in annual surface albedo with time will become larger and so will the surface albedo feedback. We conclude that a stronger seasonality in sea ice leads to a stronger surface albedo feedback, which accelerates

  3. The surface energy, water, carbon flux and their intercorrelated seasonality in a global climate-vegetation coupled model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Dan.; Jinjun Ji

    2007-01-01

    The sensible and latent heat fluxes, representatives of the physical exchange processes of energy and water between land and air, are the two crucial variables controlling the surface energy partitioning related to temperature and humidity. The net primary production (NPP), the major carbon flux exchange between vegetation and atmosphere, is of great importance for the terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle. The fluxes are simulated by a two-way coupled model, Atmosphere-Vegetation Interaction Model-Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model (AVIM-GOALS) in which the surface physical and physiological processes are coupled with general circulation model (GCM), and the global spatial and temporal variation of the fluxes is studied. The simulated terrestrial surface physical fluxes are consistent with the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis (ERA40) in the global distribution, but the magnitudes are generally 20-40 W/m 2 underestimated. The annual NPP agrees well with the International Geosphere Biosphere Programme (IGBP) NPP data except for the lower value in northern high latitudes. The surface physical fluxes, leaf area index (LAI) and NPP of the global mid-latitudes, especially between 30 deg N-50 deg N, show great variation in annual oscillation amplitudes. And all physical and biological fields in northern mid-latitudes have the largest seasonality with a high statistical significance of 99.9%. The seasonality of surface physical fluxes, LAI and NPP are highly correlated with each other. The meridional three-peak pattern of seasonal change emerges in northern mid-latitudes, which indicates the interaction of topographical gradient variation of surface fluxes and vegetation phenology on these three latitudinal belts

  4. Global biogeography of seed dormancy is determined by seasonality and seed size: a case study in the legumes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubio de Casas, Rafael; Willis, Charles G; Pearse, William D; Baskin, Carol C; Baskin, Jerry M; Cavender-Bares, Jeannine

    2017-06-01

    Seed dormancy is expected to provide ecological advantages by adjusting germination to the favorable growth period. However, many species produce nondormant seeds, particularly in wet tropical forests, a biogeographic pattern that is not well accounted for in current models. We hypothesized that the global distribution of dormant seeds derives from their adaptive value in predictably fluctuating (i.e. seasonal) environments. However, the advantage conferred by dormancy might ultimately depend on other seed attributes, particularly size. This general model was tested within a phylogenetically informed framework using a data set comprising > 216 000 world-wide observations of Fabaceae, spanning three orders of magnitude in seed size and including both dormant and nondormant seeds. Our results confirmed our hypothesis: nondormant seeds can only evolve in climates with long growing seasons and/or in lineages that produce larger seeds. Conversely, dormancy should be evolutionarily stable in temperate lineages with small seeds. When the favorable season is fleeting, seed dormancy is the only adaptive strategy. Based on these results, we predict that, within a given lineage, taxa producing larger, nondormant seeds will necessarily predominate in aseasonal environments, while plants bearing small, dormant seeds will be dominant under short growing seasons. © 2017 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2017 New Phytologist Trust.

  5. Influence of melatonin receptor 1A gene polymorphisms on seasonal reproduction in Sarda ewes with different body condition scores and ages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mura, M C; Luridiana, S; Bodano, S; Daga, C; Cosso, G; Diaz, M L; Bini, P P; Carcangiu, V

    2014-10-01

    In several species, circadian changes in melatonin concentrations play a key role in the photoperiodic control of seasonality. In sheep, two silent mutations in the melatonin receptor 1A gene (MTNR1A) at positions 606 and 612 of the exon II are associated with seasonal reproduction. However, in some sheep breeds, no relationships have been found between MTNR1A polymorphisms and reproductive seasonality. This lack of relationship could be due to effects of breed, body condition, age, and/or environmental conditions. Thus, the present study was conducted with the Sarda sheep breed with the aim of documenting the effect of MTNR1A gene polymorphisms on reproductive resumption and to evaluate whether such this effect was modified by differences in body condition score (BCS) and age. Six hundred three- to six-year-old multiparous ewes with BCSs between 2.5 and 3.5 were selected. Genomic DNA was extracted and subjected to PCR to amplify the ovine exon II of the MTNR1A gene. The amplicons were subjected to digestion with the restriction enzymes RsaI and MnlI to detect the T606C and A612G polymorphisms, respectively. Ewes carrying the G/G, G/A, C/C, and C/T genotypes exhibited higher fertility rates (Preproductive resumption in the Sarda sheep breed. Moreover, the data also indicated that, over the limited ranges evaluated in this study, BCS and age had no significant influence on reproductive activity. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Alimentary habits, physical activity, and Framingham global risk score in metabolic syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soares, Thays Soliman; Piovesan, Carla Haas; Gustavo, Andréia da Silva; Macagnan, Fabrício Edler; Bodanese, Luiz Carlos; Feoli, Ana Maria Pandolfo

    2014-04-01

    Metabolic syndrome is a complex disorder represented by a set of cardiovascular risk factors. A healthy lifestyle is strongly related to improve Quality of Life and interfere positively in the control of risk factors presented in this condition. To evaluate the effect of a program of lifestyle modification on the Framingham General Cardiovascular Risk Profile in subjects diagnosed with metabolic syndrome. A sub-analysis study of a randomized clinical trial controlled blind that lasted three months. Participants were randomized into four groups: dietary intervention + placebo (DIP), dietary intervention + supplementation of omega 3 (fish oil 3 g/day) (DIS3), dietary intervention + placebo + physical activity (DIPE) and dietary intervention + physical activity + supplementation of omega 3 (DIS3PE). The general cardiovascular risk profile of each individual was calculated before and after the intervention. The study included 70 subjects. Evaluating the score between the pre and post intervention yielded a significant value (p study emphasizes the importance of lifestyle modification in the prevention and treatment of cardiovascular diseases.

  7. Influence of birth rates and transmission rates on the global seasonality of rotavirus incidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitzer, Virginia E; Viboud, Cécile; Lopman, Ben A; Patel, Manish M; Parashar, Umesh D; Grenfell, Bryan T

    2011-11-07

    Rotavirus is a major cause of mortality in developing countries, and yet the dynamics of rotavirus in such settings are poorly understood. Rotavirus is typically less seasonal in the tropics, although recent observational studies have challenged the universality of this pattern. While numerous studies have examined the association between environmental factors and rotavirus incidence, here we explore the role of intrinsic factors. By fitting a mathematical model of rotavirus transmission dynamics to published age distributions of cases from 15 countries, we obtain estimates of local transmission rates. Model-predicted patterns of seasonal incidence based solely on differences in birth rates and transmission rates are significantly correlated with those observed (Spearman's ρ = 0.65, p birth rates and transmission rates and explore how vaccination may impact these patterns. Our results suggest that the relative lack of rotavirus seasonality observed in many tropical countries may be due to the high birth rates and transmission rates typical of developing countries rather than being driven primarily by environmental conditions. While vaccination is expected to decrease the overall burden of disease, it may increase the degree of seasonal variation in the incidence of rotavirus in some settings.

  8. Global and regional seasonal variations of the geoid detected by GRACE

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kostelecký, J.; Bezděk, Aleš; Klokočník, Jaroslav

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 10, č. 3 (2013), s. 285-291 ISSN 1214-9705 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-36843S Grant - others:EU(XE) NTIS CZ1.05/1.1.00/02.0090 Institutional support: RVO:67985815 Keywords : GRACE mission * seasonal variations * geoid Subject RIV: BN - Astronomy, Celestial Mechanics, Astrophysics Impact factor: 0.667, year: 2013

  9. Impact of lengthening open water season on food security in Alaska coastal communities: Global impacts may outweigh local "frontline" effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rolph, R.; Mahoney, A. R.

    2015-12-01

    Using ice concentration data from the Alaska Sea Ice Atlas from 1953-2013 for selected communities in Alaska, we find a consistent trend toward later freeze up and earlier breakup, leading a lengthened open water period. Such changes are often considered to bring a variety of "frontline" local impacts to Arctic coastal communities such as increased rates of coastal erosion. However, direct consequences of these changes to local food security (e.g. through impacts on subsistence activities and marine transport of goods) may be outweighed at least in the short term by the effects of large scale Arctic sea ice change coupled with global oil markets. For example, a later freeze-up might delay local hunters' transition from boats to snow-machines, but whether this trend will affect hunting success, especially in the next few years, is uncertain. Likewise, the magnitude of change in open water season length is unlikely to be sufficient to increase the frequency with which communities are served by barges. However, an expanding open water season throughout the Arctic has implications for the global economy, which can have indirect effects on local communities. In the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, where rapid sea ice change has been accompanied by increased interest in oil and gas development, the U.S. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management currently requires drilling operations to cease 38 days prior to freeze up. Taking this into account, the lengthening open water season has effectively extended the drilling season for oil companies by 184% since the 1950s. If oil development goes ahead, local communities will likely experience a range of indirect impacts on food security due to increased vessel traffic and demand on infrastructure coupled with changes in local economies and employment opportunities. Increased likelihood of an oil spill in coastal waters also poses a significant threat to local food security. Thus, while Arctic coastal communities are already experiencing

  10. Seasonal and temporal CO2 dynamics in three tropical mangrove creeks - A revision of global mangrove CO2 emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosentreter, Judith A.; Maher, D. T.; Erler, D. V.; Murray, R.; Eyre, B. D.

    2018-02-01

    Continuous high-resolution surface water pCO2 and δ13C-CO2 and 222Rn (dry season only) were measured over two tidal cycles in the wet and dry season in three tropical tidal mangrove creeks on the north-eastern coast of Queensland, Australia. Mangrove surface water pCO2 followed a clear tidal pattern (ranging from 387 to 13,031 μatm) with higher pCO2-values in the wet season than in the dry season. The δ13C-CO2 in the mangrove waters ranged from -21.7 to -8.8‰ and was rather indicative of a mixed source than a distinct mangrove signature. Surface water CO2 was likely driven by a combination of mangrove and external carbon sources, e.g. exchange with groundwater/pore water enriched in 13C, or terrestrial carbon inputs with a significant contribution of C4-vegetation (sugar cane) source. The kinetic and equilibrium fractionation during the gas exchange at the water-atmosphere interface may have further caused a 13C-enrichment of the CO2 pool in the mangrove surface waters. Average CO2 evasion rates (58.7-277.6 mmol m-2 d-1) were calculated using different empirical gas transfer velocity models. Using our high-resolution time series data and previously published data, the average CO2 flux rate in mangrove ecosystems was estimated to be 56.5 ± 8.9 mmol m-2 d-1, which corresponds to a revised global mangrove CO2 emission of 34.1 ± 5.4 Tg C per year.

  11. Seasonal variation of photosynthetic model parameters and leaf area index from global Fluxnet eddy covariance data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groenendijk, M.; Dolman, A.J.; Ammann, C.; Arneth, A.; Cescatti, A.; Molen, van der M.K.; Moors, E.J.

    2011-01-01

    Global vegetation models require the photosynthetic parameters, maximum carboxylation capacity (Vcm), and quantum yield (a) to parameterize their plant functional types (PFTs). The purpose of this work is to determine how much the scaling of the parameters from leaf to ecosystem level through a

  12. On the comparison between seasonal predictive skill of global circulation models: Coupled versus uncoupled

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Beraki, AF

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The study compares one- and two-tiered forecasting systems as represented by the South African Weather Service Coupled Model and its atmosphere-only version. In this comparative framework, the main difference between these global climate models...

  13. Surface ozone seasonality under global change: Influence from dry deposition and isoprene emissions at northern mid-latitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clifton, O.; Paulot, F.; Fiore, A. M.; Horowitz, L. W.; Malyshev, S.; Shevliakova, E.; Correa, G. J. P.; Lin, M.

    2017-12-01

    Identifying the contributions of nonlinear chemistry and transport to observed surface ozone seasonal cycles over land using global models relies on an accurate representation of ozone uptake by vegetation (dry deposition). It is well established that in the absence of ozone precursor emission changes, a warming climate will increase surface ozone in polluted regions, and that a rise in temperature-dependent isoprene emissions would exacerbate this "climate penalty". However, the influence of changes in ozone dry deposition, expected to evolve with climate and land use, is often overlooked in air quality projections. With a new scheme that represents dry deposition within the NOAA GFDL dynamic vegetation land model (LM3) coupled to the NOAA GFDL atmospheric chemistry-climate model (AM3), we simulate the impact of 21st century climate and land use on ozone dry deposition and isoprene emissions. This dry deposition parameterization is a version of the Wesely scheme, but uses parameters explicitly calculated by LM3 that respond to climate and land use (e.g., stomatal conductance, canopy interception of water, leaf area index). The parameterization includes a nonstomatal deposition dependence on humidity. We evaluate climatological present-day seasonal cycles of ozone deposition velocities and abundances with those observed at northern mid-latitude sites. With a set of 2010s and 2090s decadal simulations under a high climate warming scenario (RCP8.5) and a sensitivity simulation with well-mixed greenhouse gases following RCP8.5 but air pollutants held at 2010 levels (RCP8.5_WMGG), we examine changes in surface ozone seasonal cycles. We build on our previous findings, which indicate that strong reductions in anthropogenic NOx emissions under RCP8.5 cause the surface ozone seasonal cycle over the NE USA to reverse, shifting from a summer peak at present to a winter peak by 2100. Under RCP8.5_WMGG, we parse the separate effects of climate and land use on ozone dry

  14. Global distribution and seasonal variability of coastal low-level jets derived from ERA-Interim reanalysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raza Ranjha

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available A low-level wind maximum is often found over the oceans near many coasts around the world. These Coastal Low-Level Jets (CLLJs play an important role in the coastal weather and have significant impacts on regional climate and ecology as well as on a number of human activities. The presence of CLLJs is related to various local circumstances such as land-sea temperature contrasts, upwelling, coastal terrain, orientation of the coast, and so on, but also to the large-scale atmospheric dynamics. This makes studies of CLLJs not only interesting but also challenging. In this study, based on ERA-Interim reanalysis data, the global distribution, spatio-temporal structure and the seasonal variability of CLLJs are documented. Seasonal data from 1980 to 2011 are used to identify areas where CLLJs are frequently found in the lowest 2 km, following criteria based on the vertical profiles of wind speed and temperature. The results are analysed to highlight the fundamental aspects and distinctive features of the CLLJs across the globe, including their occurrence rate, jet height, maximum wind speed and horizontal extent. Global maps of CLLJs are constructed for the summer and winter seasons. The west coasts of North America, the Iberian Peninsula, north-western Africa and the south-eastern coast of the Arabian Peninsula make up the Northern Hemispheric CLLJ regions, while the west coasts of South America, Australia, and southern Africa comprise the South Hemispheric equivalents. The existence and characteristics of CLLJs along the southern coast of Oman and the western coast of the Iberian Peninsula regions are also discussed, not fully envisaged before in the context of CLLJs. The highest occurrence of CLLJs is found during the summer in both hemispheres, and the coast of Oman has the globally highest CLLJ frequency, with also the highest maximum wind speeds. The most commonly found CLLJ has a maximum wind speed between 9 and 15 m s−1, and occurs at

  15. The Global Drivers of Photosynthesis and Light Use Efficiency Seasonality: A Granger Frequency Causality Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nemani, Ramakrishna R.

    2016-01-01

    Photosynthesis and light use efficiency (LUE) are major factors in the evolution of the continental carbon cycle due to their contribution to gross primary production (GPP). However, while the drivers of photosynthesis and LUE on a plant or canopy scale can often be identified, significant uncertainties exist when modeling these on a global scale. This is due to sparse observations in regions such as the tropics and the lack of a direct global observation dataset. Although others have attempted to address this issue using correlations (Beer, 2010) or calculating GPP from vegetation indices (Running, 2004), in this study we take a new approach. We combine the statistical method of Granger frequency causality and partial Granger frequency causality with remote sensing data products (including sun-induced fluorescence used as a proxy for GPP) to determine the main environmental drivers of GPP across the globe.

  16. Global and Seasonal Scintillation Morphology in the Equatorial Region Derived from ROCSAT-1 In-situ Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yen-Hung Liu

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The global/seasonal distributions of the scintillation occurrence rate are obtained from the in-situ density measurement of the ROCSAT-1 using a modified procedure reported by Wernik et al. (2007. A least-squares curve fitting in the optimal trust region is used to obtain the spectral slope for the density irregularity structure and the outer scale of the scintillation. The distribution of the S4 index for the weak scintillation (S4 < 0.3 is almost identical to that of the equatorial irregularity distribution reported in the literature. However, as the scintillation becomes stronger (0.3 < S4 < 0.6, the latitudinal distribution moves to the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA region. In addition, the distributions of the outer scale values that are useful for the study of the physical evolution of the irregularity structure are also obtained. The occurrence distribution of scintillation activity with several parameters such as dip-latitude, longitude, local time, solar activity, and geomagnetic activity during different seasons are presented and discussed in this paper.

  17. Global evaluation of a semiempirical model for yield anomalies and application to within-season yield forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schauberger, Bernhard; Gornott, Christoph; Wechsung, Frank

    2017-11-01

    Quantifying the influence of weather on yield variability is decisive for agricultural management under current and future climate anomalies. We extended an existing semiempirical modeling scheme that allows for such quantification. Yield anomalies, measured as interannual differences, were modeled for maize, soybeans, and wheat in the United States and 32 other main producer countries. We used two yield data sets, one derived from reported yields and the other from a global yield data set deduced from remote sensing. We assessed the capacity of the model to forecast yields within the growing season. In the United States, our model can explain at least two-thirds (63%-81%) of observed yield anomalies. Its out-of-sample performance (34%-55%) suggests a robust yield projection capacity when applied to unknown weather. Out-of-sample performance is lower when using remote sensing-derived yield data. The share of weather-driven yield fluctuation varies spatially, and estimated coefficients agree with expectations. Globally, the explained variance in yield anomalies based on the remote sensing data set is similar to the United States (71%-84%). But the out-of-sample performance is lower (15%-42%). The performance discrepancy is likely due to shortcomings of the remote sensing yield data as it diminishes when using reported yield anomalies instead. Our model allows for robust forecasting of yields up to 2 months before harvest for several main producer countries. An additional experiment suggests moderate yield losses under mean warming, assuming no major changes in temperature extremes. We conclude that our model can detect weather influences on yield anomalies and project yields with unknown weather. It requires only monthly input data and has a low computational demand. Its within-season yield forecasting capacity provides a basis for practical applications like local adaptation planning. Our study underlines high-quality yield monitoring and statistics as critical

  18. Evaluation of WRF Performance Driven by GISS-E2-R Global Model for the 2014 Rainy Season in Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almanza, V.; Zavala, M. A.; Lei, W.; Shindell, D. T.; Molina, L. T.

    2017-12-01

    Precipitation and cloud fields as well as the spatial distribution of emissions are important during the estimation of the radiative effects of atmospheric pollutants in future climate applications. In particular, landfalling hurricanes and tropical storms greatly affect the amount and distribution of annual precipitation, and thus have a direct impact on the wet deposition of pollutants and aerosol-cloud interactions. Therefore, long-term simulations in chemistry mode driven by the outputs of a global model need to consider the influence of these phenomena on the radiative effects, particularly for countries such as Mexico that have high number of landfalling hurricanes and tropical storms. In this work the NASA earth system GISS-E2-R global model is downscaled with the WRF model over a domain encompassing Mexico. We use the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) and Era-Interim reanalysis, along with available surface observations and data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) products to evaluate the contribution of spectral nudging, domain size and resolution in resolving the precipitation and cloud fraction fields for the rainy season in 2014. We focus on this year since 10 tropical cyclones made landfall in central Mexico. The results of the evaluation are useful to assess the performance of the model in representing the present conditions of precipitation and cloud fraction in Mexico. In addition, it provides guidelines for conducting the operational runs in chemistry mode for the future years.

  19. Global variation in the long-term seasonal changes observed in ionospheric F region data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. J. Scott

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Long-term variability has previously been observed in the relative magnitude of annual and semi-annual variations in the critical frequency (related to the peak electron concentration of the ionospheric F2 layer (foF2. In this paper we investigate the global patterns in such variability by calculating the time varying power ratio of semi-annual to annual components seen in ionospheric foF2 data sequences from 77 ionospheric monitoring stations around the world. The temporal variation in power ratios observed at each station was then correlated with the same parameter calculated from similar epochs for the Slough/Chilton data set (for which there exists the longest continuous sequence of ionospheric data. This technique reveals strong regional variation in the data, which bears a striking similarity to the regional variation observed in long-term changes to the height of the ionospheric F2 layer. We argue that since both the height and peak density of the ionospheric F2 region are influenced by changes to thermospheric circulation and composition, the observed long-term and regional variability can be explained by such changes. In the absence of long-term measurements of thermospheric composition, detailed modelling work is required to investigate these processes.

  20. Development of an Experimental African Drought Monitoring and Seasonal Forecasting System: A First Step towards a Global Drought Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, E. F.; Chaney, N.; Sheffield, J.; Yuan, X.

    2012-12-01

    forecasts are bias corrected, downscaled and used as inputs to the VIC LSM as well as forecasts based on ESP and CPC official seasonal outlook. For Africa, data from a combination of remote sensing (TMPA-based precipitation, land cover characteristics) and GFS analysis fields (temperature and wind) are used to monitor drought using our soil moisture drought index as well as 1, 3 and and 6-month SPI. River discharge is also estimated at over 900 locations. Seasonal forecasts have been developed using CFSv2 climate forecasts following the approaches used over CONUS. We will discuss the performance of the system to evaluate the depiction of drought over various scales, from regional to the African continent, and over a number of years to capture multiple drought events. Furthermore, the hindcasts from the seasonal drought forecast system are analyzed to assess the ability of seasonal climate models to detect drought on-set and its recovery. Finally, we will discuss whether our ADM provides a pathway to a Global Drought Information System, a goal of the WCRP Drought Task Force.

  1. Comparison of visual scoring and quantitative planimetry methods for estimation of global infarct size on delayed enhanced cardiac MRI and validation with myocardial enzymes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mewton, Nathan, E-mail: nmewton@gmail.com [Hopital Cardiovasculaire Louis Pradel, 28, Avenue Doyen Lepine, 69677 Bron cedex, Hospices Civils de Lyon (France); CREATIS-LRMN (Centre de Recherche et d' Applications en Traitement de l' Image et du Signal), Universite Claude Bernard Lyon 1, UMR CNRS 5220, U 630 INSERM (France); Revel, Didier [Hopital Cardiovasculaire Louis Pradel, 28, Avenue Doyen Lepine, 69677 Bron cedex, Hospices Civils de Lyon (France); CREATIS-LRMN (Centre de Recherche et d' Applications en Traitement de l' Image et du Signal), Universite Claude Bernard Lyon 1, UMR CNRS 5220, U 630 INSERM (France); Bonnefoy, Eric [Hopital Cardiovasculaire Louis Pradel, 28, Avenue Doyen Lepine, 69677 Bron cedex, Hospices Civils de Lyon (France); Ovize, Michel [Hopital Cardiovasculaire Louis Pradel, 28, Avenue Doyen Lepine, 69677 Bron cedex, Hospices Civils de Lyon (France); INSERM Unite 886 (France); Croisille, Pierre [Hopital Cardiovasculaire Louis Pradel, 28, Avenue Doyen Lepine, 69677 Bron cedex, Hospices Civils de Lyon (France); CREATIS-LRMN (Centre de Recherche et d' Applications en Traitement de l' Image et du Signal), Universite Claude Bernard Lyon 1, UMR CNRS 5220, U 630 INSERM (France)

    2011-04-15

    Purpose: Although delayed enhanced CMR has become a reference method for infarct size quantification, there is no ideal method to quantify total infarct size in a routine clinical practice. In a prospective study we compared the performance and post-processing time of a global visual scoring method to standard quantitative planimetry and we compared both methods to the peak values of myocardial biomarkers. Materials and methods: This study had local ethics committee approval; all patients gave written informed consent. One hundred and three patients admitted with reperfused AMI to our intensive care unit had a complete CMR study with gadolinium-contrast injection 4 {+-} 2 days after admission. A global visual score was defined on a 17-segment model and compared with the quantitative planimetric evaluation of hyperenhancement. The peak values of serum Troponin I (TnI) and creatine kinase (CK) release were measured in each patient. Results: The mean percentage of total left ventricular myocardium with hyperenhancement determined by the quantitative planimetry method was (20.1 {+-} 14.6) with a range of 1-68%. There was an excellent correlation between quantitative planimetry and visual global scoring for the hyperenhancement extent's measurement (r = 0.94; y = 1.093x + 0.87; SEE = 1.2; P < 0.001) The Bland-Altman plot showed a good concordance between the two approaches (mean of the differences = 1.9% with a standard deviation of 4.7). Mean post-processing time for quantitative planimetry was significantly longer than visual scoring post-processing time (23.7 {+-} 5.7 min vs 5.0 {+-} 1.1 min respectively, P < 0.001). Correlation between peak CK and quantitative planimetry was r = 0.82 (P < 0.001) and r = 0.83 (P < 0.001) with visual global scoring. Correlation between peak Troponin I and quantitative planimetry was r = 0.86 (P < 0.001) and r = 0.85 (P < 0.001) with visual global scoring. Conclusion: A visual approach based on a 17-segment model allows a rapid

  2. Comparison of visual scoring and quantitative planimetry methods for estimation of global infarct size on delayed enhanced cardiac MRI and validation with myocardial enzymes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mewton, Nathan; Revel, Didier; Bonnefoy, Eric; Ovize, Michel; Croisille, Pierre

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: Although delayed enhanced CMR has become a reference method for infarct size quantification, there is no ideal method to quantify total infarct size in a routine clinical practice. In a prospective study we compared the performance and post-processing time of a global visual scoring method to standard quantitative planimetry and we compared both methods to the peak values of myocardial biomarkers. Materials and methods: This study had local ethics committee approval; all patients gave written informed consent. One hundred and three patients admitted with reperfused AMI to our intensive care unit had a complete CMR study with gadolinium-contrast injection 4 ± 2 days after admission. A global visual score was defined on a 17-segment model and compared with the quantitative planimetric evaluation of hyperenhancement. The peak values of serum Troponin I (TnI) and creatine kinase (CK) release were measured in each patient. Results: The mean percentage of total left ventricular myocardium with hyperenhancement determined by the quantitative planimetry method was (20.1 ± 14.6) with a range of 1-68%. There was an excellent correlation between quantitative planimetry and visual global scoring for the hyperenhancement extent's measurement (r = 0.94; y = 1.093x + 0.87; SEE = 1.2; P < 0.001) The Bland-Altman plot showed a good concordance between the two approaches (mean of the differences = 1.9% with a standard deviation of 4.7). Mean post-processing time for quantitative planimetry was significantly longer than visual scoring post-processing time (23.7 ± 5.7 min vs 5.0 ± 1.1 min respectively, P < 0.001). Correlation between peak CK and quantitative planimetry was r = 0.82 (P < 0.001) and r = 0.83 (P < 0.001) with visual global scoring. Correlation between peak Troponin I and quantitative planimetry was r = 0.86 (P < 0.001) and r = 0.85 (P < 0.001) with visual global scoring. Conclusion: A visual approach based on a 17-segment model allows a rapid and accurate

  3. The global surface composition of 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko nucleus by Rosetta/VIRTIS. II) Diurnal and seasonal variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciarniello, M.; Raponi, A.; Capaccioni, F.; Filacchione, G.; Tosi, F.; De Sanctis, M. C.; Kappel, D.; Rousseau, B.; Arnold, G.; Capria, M. T.; Barucci, M. A.; Quirico, E.; Longobardo, A.; Kuehrt, E.; Mottola, S.; Erard, S.; Bockelée-Morvan, D.; Leyrat, C.; Migliorini, A.; Zinzi, A.; Palomba, E.; Schmitt, B.; Piccioni, G.; Cerroni, P.; Ip, W.-H.; Rinaldi, G.; Salatti, M.

    2016-11-01

    VIRTIS-M observations of the nucleus of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko acquired from 2014 August to 2015 May have been analysed to investigate surface temporal variability at both seasonal and diurnal scales. The measured reflectance spectra are studied by means of comet spectral indicators (CSI) such as slopes in the visible and infrared ranges, and 3.2 μm band area and band centre. CSI maps derived from data acquired at different heliocentric distances (from 3.62 to 1.72 au) along the inbound leg of the comet's orbit are used to infer surface water ice abundance. We measure a global scale enrichment of water ice from 2014 August to 2015 May across the body of the comet, along with variability at small spatial scale, possibly related with the local insolation conditions. Analysis of water ice diurnal variability is performed on 2014 August observations. Water ice appears at the border of receding shadows in the neck of the comet (Hapi), sublimating in less than 1 h, after exposure to sunlight. As similar variability is not observed in other regions of the comet, we interpreted this as the expression of a diurnal cycle of sublimation and re-condensation of water ice, triggered by sudden shadowing produced on the neck by the body and the head of the nucleus.

  4. A Maturing Global Testing Regime Meets the World Economy: Test Scores and Economic Growth, 1960-2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamens, David H.

    2015-01-01

    This article considers the growth of the international testing regime. It discusses sources of growth and empirically examines two related sets of issues: (1) the stability of countries' achievement scores, and (2) the influence of those national scores on subsequent economic development over different time lags. The article suggests that…

  5. Improving dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) simulation of western U.S. rangelands vegetation seasonal phenology and productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerns, B. K.; Kim, J. B.; Day, M. A.; Pitts, B.; Drapek, R. J.

    2017-12-01

    Ecosystem process models are increasingly being used in regional assessments to explore potential changes in future vegetation and NPP due to climate change. We use the dynamic global vegetation model MAPSS-Century 2 (MC2) as one line of evidence for regional climate change vulnerability assessments for the US Forest Service, focusing our fine tuning model calibration from observational sources related to forest vegetation. However, there is much interest in understanding projected changes for arid rangelands in the western US such as grasslands, shrublands, and woodlands. Rangelands provide many ecosystem service benefits and local rural human community sustainability, habitat for threatened and endangered species, and are threatened by annual grass invasion. Past work suggested MC2 performance related to arid rangeland plant functional types (PFT's) was poor, and the model has difficulty distinguishing annual versus perennial grasslands. Our objectives are to increase the model performance for rangeland simulations and explore the potential for splitting the grass plant functional type into annual and perennial. We used the tri-state Blue Mountain Ecoregion as our study area and maps of potential vegetation from interpolated ground data, the National Land Cover Data Database, and ancillary NPP data derived from the MODIS satellite. MC2 historical simulations for the area overestimated woodland occurrence and underestimated shrubland and grassland PFT's. The spatial location of the rangeland PFT's also often did not align well with observational data. While some disagreement may be due to differences in the respective classification rules, the errors are largely linked to MC2's tree and grass biogeography and physiology algorithms. Presently, only grass and forest productivity measures and carbon stocks are used to distinguish PFT's. MC2 grass and tree productivity simulation is problematic, in particular grass seasonal phenology in relation to seasonal patterns

  6. Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer Patients Receiving Radio-Chemotherapy: A Novel Clinical-Pathologic Score Correlates With Global Outcome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berardi, Rossana; Mantello, Giovanna; Scartozzi, Mario; Del Prete, Stefano; Luppi, Gabriele; Martinelli, Roberto; Fumagalli, Marco; Grillo-Ruggieri, Filippo; Bearzi, Italo; Mandolesi, Alessandra; Marmorale, Cristina; Cascinu, Stefano

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: To determine the importance of downstaging of locally advanced rectal cancer after neoadjuvant treatment. Methods and Materials: The study included all consecutive patients with locally advanced rectal cancer who underwent neoadjuvant treatment (chemotherapy and/or radiotherapy) in different Italian centers from June 1996 to December 2003. A novel score was used, calculated as the sum of numbers obtained by giving a negative or positive point, respectively, to each degree of increase or decrease in clinical to pathologic T and N status. Results: A total of 317 patients were eligible for analysis. Neoadjuvant treatments performed were as follows: radiotherapy alone in 75 of 317 patients (23.7%), radiotherapy plus chemotherapy in 242 of 317 patients (76.3%). Worse disease-free survival was observed in patients with a lower score (Score 1 = -3 to +3 vs. Score 2 = +4 to +7; p = 0.04). Conclusions: Our results suggest that a novel score, calculated from preoperative and pathologic tumor and lymph node status, could represent an important parameter to predict outcome in patients receiving neoadjuvant treatment for rectal cancer. The score could be useful to select patients for adjuvant chemotherapy after neoadjuvant treatment and surgery.

  7. Malnutrition in Geriatric Rehabilitation: Prevalence, Patient Outcomes, and Criterion Validity of the Scored Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment and the Mini Nutritional Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Skye; Young, Adrienne; Bauer, Judith; Isenring, Elizabeth

    2016-05-01

    Accurate identification and management of malnutrition is essential so that patient outcomes can be improved and resources used efficaciously. In malnourished older adults admitted to rehabilitation: 1) report the prevalence, health and aged care use, and mortality of malnourished older adults; 2) determine and compare the criterion (concurrent and predictive) validity of the Scored Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA) and the Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA) in diagnosing malnutrition; and 3) identify the Scored PG-SGA score cut-off value associated with malnutrition. Observational, prospective cohort. Participants were 57 older adults (65 years and older; mean±standard deviation age=79.1±7.3 years) from two rural rehabilitation units in New South Wales, Australia. Scored PG-SGA; MNA; and the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Health Related Problems, 10th revision, Australian Modification (ICD-10-AM) classification of malnutrition were compared to establish concurrent validity and report malnutrition prevalence. Length of stay, discharge location, rehospitalization, admission to a residential aged care facility, and mortality were measured to report health-related outcomes and to establish predictive validity. Malnutrition prevalence varied according to assessment tool (ICD-10-AM: 46%; Scored PG-SGA: 53%; MNA: 28%). Using the ICD-10-AM as the reference standard, the Scored PG-SGA ratings (sensitivity 100%, specificity 87%) and score (sensitivity 92%, specificity 84%, ROC AUC [receiver operating characteristics area under the curve]=0.910±0.038) showed strong concurrent validity, and the MNA had moderate concurrent validity (sensitivity 58%, specificity 97%, receiver operating characteristics area under the curve=0.854±0.052). The Scored PG-SGA rating, Scored PG-SGA score, and MNA showed good predictive validity. Malnutrition can increase the risk of longer rehospitalization length of stay, admission to a residential

  8. Influenza epidemiology and influenza vaccine effectiveness during the 2014–2015 season: annual report from the Global Influenza Hospital Surveillance Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joan Puig-Barberà

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The Global Influenza Hospital Surveillance Network (GIHSN has established a prospective, active surveillance, hospital-based epidemiological study to collect epidemiological and virological data for the Northern and Southern Hemispheres over several consecutive seasons. It focuses exclusively on severe cases of influenza requiring hospitalization. A standard protocol is shared between sites allowing comparison and pooling of results. During the 2014–2015 influenza season, the GIHSN included seven coordinating sites from six countries (St. Petersburg and Moscow, Russian Federation; Prague, Czech Republic; Istanbul, Turkey; Beijing, China; Valencia, Spain; and Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Here, we present the detailed epidemiological and influenza vaccine effectiveness findings for the Northern Hemisphere 2014–2015 influenza season.

  9. Measuring mental workload with the NASA-TLX needs to examine each dimension rather than relying on the global score: an example with driving.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galy, Edith; Paxion, Julie; Berthelon, Catherine

    2018-04-01

    The distinction between several components of mental workload is often made in the ergonomics literature. However, measurements used are often established from a global score, notably with several questionnaires that originally reflect several dimensions. The present study tested the effect of driving situation complexity, experience and subjective levels of tension and alertness on each dimension of the NASA-TLX questionnaire of workload, in order to highlight the potential influence of intrinsic, extraneous and germane load factors. The results showed that, in complex situation, mental, temporal and physical demand (load dimensions) increased, and that novice drivers presented high physical demand when subjective tension was low on performance. Moreover, increase of mental and physical demand increased effort. It thus, appears essential to distinguish the different components of mental workload used in the NASA-TLX questionnaire. Practitioner Summary: Currently, global score of NASA-TLX questionnaire is used to measure mental workload. Here, we considered independently each dimension of NASA-TLX, and results showed that mental load factors (driving situation complexity, experience, subjective tension and alertness) had a different effect on dimensions, questioning global score use to evaluate workload.

  10. Montreal Cognitive Assessment Performance in Patients with Parkinson’s Disease with “Normal” Global Cognition According to Mini-Mental State Examination Score

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nazem, Sarra; Siderowf, Andrew D.; Duda, John E.; Have, Tom Ten; Colcher, Amy; Horn, Stacy S.; Moberg, Paul J.; Wilkinson, Jayne R.; Hurtig, Howard I.; Stern, Matthew B.; Weintraub, Daniel

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVES To examine Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) performance in patients with Parkinson’s disease (PD) with “normal” global cognition according to Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score. DESIGN A cross-sectional comparison of the MoCA and the MMSE. SETTING Two movement disorders centers at the University of Pennsylvania and the Philadelphia Veterans Affairs Medical Center. PARTICIPANTS A convenience sample of 131 patients with idiopathic PD who were screened for cognitive and psychiatric complications. MEASUREMENTS Subjects were administered the MoCA and MMSE, and only subjects defined as having a normal age- and education-adjusted MMSE score were included in the analyses (N = 100). As previously recommended in patients without PD, a MoCA score less than 26 was used to indicate the presence of at least mild cognitive impairment (MCI). RESULTS Mean MMSE and MoCA scores ± standard deviation were 28.8 ± 1.1 and 24.9 ± 3.1, respectively. More than half (52.0%) of subjects with normal MMSE scores had cognitive impairment according to their MoCA score. Impairments were seen in numerous cognitive domains, including memory, visuospatial and executive abilities, attention, and language. Predictors of cognitive impairment on the MoCA using univariate analyses were male sex, older age, lower educational level, and greater disease severity; older age was the only predictor in a multivariate model. CONCLUSION Approximately half of patients with PD with a normal MMSE score have cognitive impairment based on the recommended MoCA cutoff score. These results suggest that MCI is common in PD and that the MoCA is a more sensitive instrument than the MMSE for its detection. PMID:19170786

  11. Association between Global Assessment of Functioning scores and indicators of functioning, severity, and prognosis in first-time schizophrenia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Köhler-Forsberg, Ole; Horsdal, Henriette Thisted; Baandrup, Lone

    2016-01-01

    are associated with other indicators of functioning, severity, and hospitalization. METHODS: A Danish population-based cohort study of adults (≥18 years) with a recorded GAF-F score at first-time schizophrenia diagnosis during 2004-2011 was performed. The internal validity of GAF-F was evaluated by assessing its...... of schizophrenia with a GAF-F score at first-time diagnosis (73.0% inpatients; 62.6% males). GAF-F was associated with several baseline measures of functioning and illness severity, such as female sex, being in work, and a longer baseline hospitalization. Lower GAF-F scores were associated with higher.......36-3.90), fitting a dose-response relationship (P=0.031). This association was not found in females. CONCLUSION: GAF-F at first-time schizophrenia diagnosis showed good internal validity against other measures of functionality in a Danish hospital setting. Severe impairment (as measured by the GAF-F score) at first...

  12. Evolution of biological sequences implies an extreme value distribution of type I for both global and local pairwise alignment scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bastien, Olivier; Maréchal, Eric

    2008-08-07

    Confidence in pairwise alignments of biological sequences, obtained by various methods such as Blast or Smith-Waterman, is critical for automatic analyses of genomic data. Two statistical models have been proposed. In the asymptotic limit of long sequences, the Karlin-Altschul model is based on the computation of a P-value, assuming that the number of high scoring matching regions above a threshold is Poisson distributed. Alternatively, the Lipman-Pearson model is based on the computation of a Z-value from a random score distribution obtained by a Monte-Carlo simulation. Z-values allow the deduction of an upper bound of the P-value (1/Z-value2) following the TULIP theorem. Simulations of Z-value distribution is known to fit with a Gumbel law. This remarkable property was not demonstrated and had no obvious biological support. We built a model of evolution of sequences based on aging, as meant in Reliability Theory, using the fact that the amount of information shared between an initial sequence and the sequences in its lineage (i.e., mutual information in Information Theory) is a decreasing function of time. This quantity is simply measured by a sequence alignment score. In systems aging, the failure rate is related to the systems longevity. The system can be a machine with structured components, or a living entity or population. "Reliability" refers to the ability to operate properly according to a standard. Here, the "reliability" of a sequence refers to the ability to conserve a sufficient functional level at the folded and maturated protein level (positive selection pressure). Homologous sequences were considered as systems 1) having a high redundancy of information reflected by the magnitude of their alignment scores, 2) which components are the amino acids that can independently be damaged by random DNA mutations. From these assumptions, we deduced that information shared at each amino acid position evolved with a constant rate, corresponding to the

  13. Evolution of biological sequences implies an extreme value distribution of type I for both global and local pairwise alignment scores

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maréchal Eric

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Confidence in pairwise alignments of biological sequences, obtained by various methods such as Blast or Smith-Waterman, is critical for automatic analyses of genomic data. Two statistical models have been proposed. In the asymptotic limit of long sequences, the Karlin-Altschul model is based on the computation of a P-value, assuming that the number of high scoring matching regions above a threshold is Poisson distributed. Alternatively, the Lipman-Pearson model is based on the computation of a Z-value from a random score distribution obtained by a Monte-Carlo simulation. Z-values allow the deduction of an upper bound of the P-value (1/Z-value2 following the TULIP theorem. Simulations of Z-value distribution is known to fit with a Gumbel law. This remarkable property was not demonstrated and had no obvious biological support. Results We built a model of evolution of sequences based on aging, as meant in Reliability Theory, using the fact that the amount of information shared between an initial sequence and the sequences in its lineage (i.e., mutual information in Information Theory is a decreasing function of time. This quantity is simply measured by a sequence alignment score. In systems aging, the failure rate is related to the systems longevity. The system can be a machine with structured components, or a living entity or population. "Reliability" refers to the ability to operate properly according to a standard. Here, the "reliability" of a sequence refers to the ability to conserve a sufficient functional level at the folded and maturated protein level (positive selection pressure. Homologous sequences were considered as systems 1 having a high redundancy of information reflected by the magnitude of their alignment scores, 2 which components are the amino acids that can independently be damaged by random DNA mutations. From these assumptions, we deduced that information shared at each amino acid position evolved with a

  14. Dutch Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA): training improves scores for comprehensibility and difficulty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Danique Haven; Martine J. Sealy; Jan Roodenburg; Dr. C.P. van der Schans; Dr. Harriët Jager-Wittenaar; Anne van der Braak; Faith Ottery

    2015-01-01

    The Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA) is a validated instrument to assess and monitor malnutrition. The PG-SGA consists of both patient-reported and professional-reported items. A professional should be able to correctly interpret all items. Untrained professionals may

  15. Factors influencing export of dissolved inorganic nitrogen by major rivers: A new seasonal, global-scale model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Understanding sub-annual patterns of catchment dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) export is critical for predicting and mitigating impacts of coastal eutrophication, such as algal blooms and hypoxic areas, which are often seasonal phenomena. We developed the first calibrated glob...

  16. A comprehensive set of benchmark tests for a land surface model of simultaneous fluxes of water and carbon at both the global and seasonal scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Blyth

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Evaluating the models we use in prediction is important as it allows us to identify uncertainties in prediction as well as guiding the priorities for model development. This paper describes a set of benchmark tests that is designed to quantify the performance of the land surface model that is used in the UK Hadley Centre General Circulation Model (JULES: Joint UK Land Environment Simulator. The tests are designed to assess the ability of the model to reproduce the observed fluxes of water and carbon at the global and regional spatial scale, and on a seasonal basis. Five datasets are used to test the model: water and carbon dioxide fluxes from ten FLUXNET sites covering the major global biomes, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations at four representative stations from the global network, river flow from seven catchments, the seasonal mean NDVI over the seven catchments and the potential land cover of the globe (after the estimated anthropogenic changes have been removed. The model is run in various configurations and results are compared with the data.

    A few examples are chosen to demonstrate the importance of using combined use of observations of carbon and water fluxes in essential in order to understand the causes of model errors. The benchmarking approach is suitable for application to other global models.

  17. Interrupting seasonal transmission of Schistosoma haematobium and control of soil-transmitted helminthiasis in northern and central Côte d'Ivoire: a SCORE study protocol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian-Bi, Yves-Nathan T; Ouattara, Mamadou; Knopp, Stefanie; Coulibaly, Jean T; Hürlimann, Eveline; Webster, Bonnie; Allan, Fiona; Rollinson, David; Meïté, Aboulaye; Diakité, Nana R; Konan, Cyrille K; N'Goran, Eliézer K; Utzinger, Jürg

    2018-01-29

    To achieve a world free of schistosomiasis, the objective is to scale up control and elimination efforts in all endemic countries. Where interruption of transmission is considered feasible, countries are encouraged to implement a comprehensive intervention package, including preventive chemotherapy, information, education and communication (IEC), water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH), and snail control. In northern and central Côte d'Ivoire, transmission of Schistosoma haematobium is seasonal and elimination might be achieved. In a cluster-randomised trial, we will assess different treatment schemes to interrupt S. haematobium transmission and control soil-transmitted helminthiasis over a 3-year period. We will compare the impact of (i) arm A: annual mass drug administration (MDA) with praziquantel and albendazole before the peak schistosomiasis transmission season; (ii) arm B: annual MDA after the peak schistosomiasis transmission season; (iii) arm C: two yearly treatments before and after peak schistosomiasis transmission; and (iv) arm D: annual MDA before peak schistosomiasis transmission, coupled with chemical snail control using niclosamide. The prevalence and intensity of S. haematobium and soil-transmitted helminth infections will be assessed using urine filtration and Kato-Katz thick smears, respectively, in six administrative regions in northern and central parts of Côte d'Ivoire. Once a year, urine and stool samples will be collected and examined from 50 children aged 5-8 years, 100 children aged 9-12 years and 50 adults aged 20-55 years in each of 60 selected villages. Changes in S. haematobium and soil-transmitted helminth prevalence and intensity will be assessed between years and stratified by intervention arm. In the 15 villages randomly assigned to intervention arm D, intermediate host snails will be collected three times per year, before niclosamide is applied to the selected freshwater bodies. The snail abundance and infection rates over time

  18. Monitoring Crohn's disease during anti-TNF-α therapy: validation of the magnetic resonance enterography global score (MEGS) against a combined clinical reference standard

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prezzi, Davide; Bhatnagar, Gauraang; Makanyanga, Jesica; Halligan, Steve; Taylor, Stuart Andrew; Vega, Roser

    2016-01-01

    To assess the ability of magnetic resonance enterography global score (MEGS) to characterise Crohn's disease (CD) response to anti-TNF-α therapy. Thirty-six CD patients (median age 26 years, 20 males) commencing anti-TNF-α therapy with concomitant baseline MRI enterography (MRE) were identified retrospectively. Patients' clinical course was followed and correlated with subsequent MREs. Scan order was randomised and MEGS (a global activity score) was applied by two blinded radiologists. A physician's global assessment of the disease activity (remission, mild, moderate or severe) at the time of MRE was assigned. The cohort was divided into clinical responders and non-responders and MEGS compared according to activity status and treatment response. Interobserver agreement was assessed. Median MEGS decreased significantly between baseline and first follow-up in responders (28 versus 6, P < 0.001) but was unchanged in non-responders (26 versus 18, P = 0.28). The median MEGS was significantly lower in clinical remission (9) than in moderate (14) or severe (29) activity (P < 0.001). MEGS correlated significantly with clinical activity (r = 0.53; P < 0.001). Interobserver Bland-Altman limits of agreement (BA LoA) were -19.7 to 18.5. MEGS decreases significantly in clinical responders to anti-TNF-α therapy but not in non-responders, demonstrates good interobserver agreement and moderate correlation with clinical disease activity. (orig.)

  19. Changes in Allergy Symptoms and Depression Scores Are Positively Correlated In Patients With Recurrent Mood Disorders Exposed to Seasonal Peaks in Aeroallergens

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teodor T. Postolache

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Although growing evidence supports an association between allergy, allergens and depression, it remains unknown if this relationship is between “states” (possible triggers or “traits” (possible vulnerabilities. We hypothesized that patients with recurrent mood disorders who are sensitized to tree pollen (as determined by allergen specific IgE antibodies, in comparison to those who are not sensitized, would report larger negative changes in mood during exposure to tree pollen in spring. We also hypothesized that differences between high and low tree pollen periods in self reported allergy symptoms would correlate positively with differences in self reported depression scores. We present 1-year preliminary data on the first 51 patients with unipolar or bipolar disorder (age: 19-63 years, 65% female, twelve patients were tree-pollen IgE positive. Ratings of mood and allergic disease status were performed once during the peak airborne pollen counts and once during the period of low airborne pollen counts, as reported by two local pollen counting stations. Linear regression models were developed to examine associations of changes in depression scores (dependent variable with tree pollen sensitization, changes in the allergy symptom severity score, adjusted for gender and order of testing. We did not confirm the hypothesized relationship between a specific tree pollen sensitization and changes in mood during tree pollen exposure. We did confirm the hypothesized positive relationship between the changes in allergy symptoms and changes in subjects' depression scores (adjusted p<0.05. This result is consistent with previous epidemiological evidence connecting allergy with depression, as well as our recent reports of increased expression of cytokines in the prefrontal cortex in victims of suicide and in experimental animals sensitized and exposed to tree pollen. A relationship between changes in allergy symptom scores and changes in depression

  20. Global sampling of the seasonal changes in vegetation biophysical properties and associated carbon flux dynamics: using the synergy of information captured by spectral time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, P. K. E.; Huemmrich, K. F.; Middleton, E.; Voorhis, S.; Landis, D.

    2016-12-01

    Spatial heterogeneity and seasonal dynamics in vegetation function contribute significantly to the uncertainties in regional and global CO2 budgets. High spectral resolution imaging spectroscopy ( 10 nm, 400-2500 nm) provides an efficient tool for synoptic evaluation of the factors significantly affecting the ability of the vegetation to sequester carbon and to reflect radiation, due to changes in vegetation chemical and structural composition. EO-1 Hyperion has collected more than 15 years of repeated observations for vegetation studies, and currently Hyperion time series are available for study of vegetation carbon dynamics at a number of FLUX sites. This study presents results from the analysis of EO-1 Hyperion and FLUX seasonal composites for a range of ecosystems across the globe. Spectral differences and seasonal trends were evaluated for each vegetation type and specific phenology. Evaluating the relationships between CO2 flux parameters (e.g., Net ecosystem production - NEP; Gross Ecosystem Exchange - GEE, CO2 flux, μmol m-2 s-1) and spectral parameters for these very different ecosystems, high correlations were established to parameters associated with canopy water and chlorophyll content for deciduous, and photosynthetic function for conifers. Imaging spectrometry provided high spatial resolution maps of CO2 fluxes absorbed by vegetation, and was efficient in tracing seasonal flux dynamics. This study will present examples for key ecosystem tipes to demonstrate the ability of imaging spectrometry and EO-1 Hyperion to map and compare CO2 flux dynamics across the globe.

  1. Application of Quaternion in improving the quality of global sequence alignment scores for an ambiguous sequence target in Streptococcus pneumoniae DNA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lestari, D.; Bustamam, A.; Novianti, T.; Ardaneswari, G.

    2017-07-01

    DNA sequence can be defined as a succession of letters, representing the order of nucleotides within DNA, using a permutation of four DNA base codes including adenine (A), guanine (G), cytosine (C), and thymine (T). The precise code of the sequences is determined using DNA sequencing methods and technologies, which have been developed since the 1970s and currently become highly developed, advanced and highly throughput sequencing technologies. So far, DNA sequencing has greatly accelerated biological and medical research and discovery. However, in some cases DNA sequencing could produce any ambiguous and not clear enough sequencing results that make them quite difficult to be determined whether these codes are A, T, G, or C. To solve these problems, in this study we can introduce other representation of DNA codes namely Quaternion Q = (PA, PT, PG, PC), where PA, PT, PG, PC are the probability of A, T, G, C bases that could appear in Q and PA + PT + PG + PC = 1. Furthermore, using Quaternion representations we are able to construct the improved scoring matrix for global sequence alignment processes, by applying a dot product method. Moreover, this scoring matrix produces better and higher quality of the match and mismatch score between two DNA base codes. In implementation, we applied the Needleman-Wunsch global sequence alignment algorithm using Octave, to analyze our target sequence which contains some ambiguous sequence data. The subject sequences are the DNA sequences of Streptococcus pneumoniae families obtained from the Genebank, meanwhile the target DNA sequence are received from our collaborator database. As the results we found the Quaternion representations improve the quality of the sequence alignment score and we can conclude that DNA sequence target has maximum similarity with Streptococcus pneumoniae.

  2. Validation of a Novel Scoring System for Changes in Skeletal Manifestations of Hypophosphatasia in Newborns, Infants, and Children: The Radiographic Global Impression of Change Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whyte, Michael P; Fujita, Kenji P; Moseley, Scott; Thompson, David D; McAlister, William H

    2018-05-01

    Hypophosphatasia (HPP) is the heritable metabolic disease characterized by impaired skeletal mineralization due to low activity of the tissue-nonspecific isoenzyme of alkaline phosphatase. Although HPP during growth often manifests with distinctive radiographic skeletal features, no validated method was available to quantify them, including changes over time. We created the Radiographic Global Impression of Change (RGI-C) scale to assess changes in the skeletal burden of pediatric HPP. Site-specific pairs of radiographs of newborns, infants, and children with HPP from three clinical studies of asfotase alfa, an enzyme replacement therapy for HPP, were obtained at baseline and during treatment. Each pair was scored by three pediatric radiologists ("raters"), with nine raters across the three studies. Intrarater and interrater agreement was determined by weighted Kappa coefficients. Interrater reliability was assessed using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) and by two-way random effects analysis of variance (ANOVA) and a mixed-model repeated measures ANOVA. Pearson correlation coefficients evaluated relationships of the RGI-C to the Rickets Severity Scale (RSS), Pediatric Outcomes Data Collection Instrument Global Function Parent Normative Score, Childhood Health Assessment Questionnaire Disability Index, 6-Minute Walk Test percent predicted, and Z-score for height in patients aged 6 to 12 years at baseline. Eighty-nine percent (8/9) of raters showed substantial or almost perfect intrarater agreement of sequential RGI-C scores (weighted Kappa coefficients, 0.72 to 0.93) and moderate or substantial interrater agreement (weighted Kappa coefficients, 0.53 to 0.71) in patients aged 0 to 12 years at baseline. Moderate-to-good interrater reliability was observed (ICC, 0.57 to 0.65). RGI-C scores were significantly (p ≤ 0.0065) correlated with the RSS and with measures of global function, disability, endurance, and growth in the patients aged 6 to 12 years at

  3. Factors influencing export of dissolved inorganic nitrogen by major rivers: A new, seasonal, spatially explicit, global model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Substantial effort has focused on understanding spatial variation in dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) export to the coastal zone and specific basins have been studied in depth. Much less is known, however, about seasonal patterns and controls of coastal DIN delivery across larg...

  4. Factors influencing export of dissolved inorganic nitrogen by major rivers: A new seasonal, spatially explicit, global model - 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Background/Question/Methods Substantial effort has focused on understanding spatial variation in dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) export to the coastal zone and specific basins have been studied in some depth. Much less is known, however, about seasonal patterns and zone and ...

  5. Effect of the omega-3 fatty acid plus vitamin E supplementation on subjective global assessment score, glucose metabolism, and lipid concentrations in chronic hemodialysis patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asemi, Zatollah; Soleimani, Alireza; Bahmani, Fereshteh; Shakeri, Hossein; Mazroii, Navid; Abedi, Fatemeh; Fallah, Melika; Mohammadi, Ali Akbar; Esmaillzadeh, Ahmad

    2016-02-01

    This study was conducted to determine the effects of omega-3 fatty acid plus vitamin E supplementation on subjective global assessment (SGA) score and metabolic profiles in chronic hemodialysis (HD) patients. This randomized double-blind placebo-controlled clinical trial was conducted among 120 chronic HD patients. Participants were randomly divided into four groups to receive: (i) 1250 mg/day omega-3 fatty acid containing 600 mg eicosapentaenoic acid and 300 mg docosahexaenoic acid + vitamin E placebo (n = 30), (ii) 400 IU/day vitamin E + omega-3 fatty acids placebo (n = 30), (iii) 1250 mg omega-3 fatty acids/day + 400 IU/day vitamin E (n = 30), and (iv) omega-3 fatty acids placebo + vitamin E placebo (n = 30) for 12 wk. Fasting blood samples were taken at baseline and after 12-wk intervention to measure metabolic profiles. Patients who received combined omega-3 fatty acids and vitamin E supplements compared with vitamin E, omega-3 fatty acids, and placebo had significantly decreased SGA score (p acids plus vitamin E supplementation for 12 wk among HD patients had beneficial effects on SGA score and metabolic profiles. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  6. A new mechanism for warm-season precipitation response to global warming based on convection-permitting simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Aiguo; Rasmussen, Roy M.; Liu, Changhai; Ikeda, Kyoko; Prein, Andreas F.

    2017-08-01

    Climate models project increasing precipitation intensity but decreasing frequency as greenhouse gases increase. However, the exact mechanism for the frequency decrease remains unclear. Here we investigate this by analyzing hourly data from regional climate change simulations with 4 km grid spacing covering most of North America using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. The model was forced with present and future boundary conditions, with the latter being derived by adding the CMIP5 19-model ensemble mean changes to the ERA-interim reanalysis. The model reproduces well the observed seasonal and spatial variations in precipitation frequency and histograms, and the dry interval between rain events over the contiguous US. Results show that overall precipitation frequency indeed decreases during the warm season mainly due to fewer light-moderate precipitation (0.1 2.0 mm/h) events, while heavy (2 10 mm/h) events increase. Dry spells become longer and more frequent, together with a reduction in time-mean relative humidity (RH) in the lower troposphere during the warm season. The increased dry hours and decreased RH lead to a reduction in overall precipitation frequency and also for light-moderate precipitation events, while water vapor-induced increases in precipitation intensity and the positive latent heating feedback in intense storms may be responsible for the large increase in intense precipitation. The size of intense storms increases while their number decreases in the future climate, which helps explain the increase in local frequency of heavy precipitation. The results generally support a new hypothesis for future warm-season precipitation: each rainstorm removes ≥7% more moisture from the air per 1 K local warming, and surface evaporation and moisture advection take slightly longer than currently to replenish the depleted moisture before the next storm forms, leading to longer dry spells and a reduction in precipitation frequency, as well as

  7. Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  8. Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-01-01

    There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  9. Seasonal Water Transport in the Atmosphere of Mars: Applications of a Mars General Circulation Model Using Mars Global Surveyor Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Bridger, Alison F. C.; Haberle, Robert M.

    1999-01-01

    This is a Final Report for a Joint Research Interchange (JRI) between NASA Ames Research Center and San Jose State University, Department of Meteorology. We present below a summary of progress made during the duration of this JRI. The focus of this JRI has been to investigate seasonal water vapor transport in the atmosphere of Mars and its effects on the planet's present climate. To this end, the primary task has been to adapt a new dynamical processor for the adiabatic tendencies of the atmospheric circulation into the NASA Ames Mars general circulation model (MGCM). Using identical boundary and initial conditions, several comparative tests between the new and old MGCMs have been performed and the nature of the simulated circulations have been diagnosed. With confidence that the updated version of the Ames MGCM produces quite similar mean and eddy circulation statistics, the new climate model is well poised as a tool to pursue fundamental questions related to the spatial and seasonal variations of atmospheric water vapor on Mars, and to explore exchanges of water with non-atmospheric reservoirs and transport within its atmosphere. In particular, the role of surface sources and sinks can be explored, the range of water-vapor saturation altitudes can be investigated, and plausible precipitation mechanisms can be studied, for a range of atmospheric dust loadings. Such future investigations can contribute to a comprehensive study of surface inventories, exchange mechanisms, and the relative importance of atmospheric transport Mars' water cycle. A listing of presentations made and manuscripts submitted during the course of this project is provided.

  10. Global tilt and lumbar lordosis index: two parameters correlating with health-related quality of life scores-but how do they truly impact disability?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boissière, Louis; Takemoto, Mitsuru; Bourghli, Anouar; Vital, Jean-Marc; Pellisé, Ferran; Alanay, Ahmet; Yilgor, Caglar; Acaroglu, Emre; Perez-Grueso, Francisco Javier; Kleinstück, Frank; Obeid, Ibrahim

    2017-04-01

    Many radiological parameters have been reported to correlate with patient's disability including sagittal vertical axis (SVA), pelvic tilt (PT), and pelvic incidence minus lumbar lordosis (PI-LL). European literature reports other parameters such as lumbar lordosis index (LLI) and the global tilt (GT). If most parameters correlate with health-related quality of life scores (HRQLs), their impact on disability remains unclear. This study aimed to validate these parameters by investigating their correlation with HRQLs. It also aimed to evaluate the relationship between each of these sagittal parameters and HRQLs to fully understand the impact in adult spinal deformity management. A retrospective review of a multicenter, prospective database was carried out. The database inclusion criteria were adults (>18 years old) presenting any of the following radiographic parameters: scoliosis (Cobb ≥20°), SVA ≥5 cm, thoracic kyphosis ≥60° or PT ≥25°. All patients with complete data at baseline were included. Health-related quality of life scores, demographic variables (DVs), and radiographic parameters were collected at baseline. Differences in HRQLs among groups of each DV were assessed with analyses of variance. Correlations between radiographic variables and HRQLs were assessed using the Spearman rank correlation. Multivariate linear regression models were fitted for each of the HRQLs (Oswestry Disability Index [ODI], Scoliosis Research Society-22 subtotal score, or physical component summaries) with sagittal parameters and covariants as independent variables. A p<.05 value was considered statistically significant. Among a total of 755 included patients (mean age, 52.1 years), 431 were non-surgical candidates and 324 were surgical candidates. Global tilt and LLI significantly correlated with HRQLs (r=0.4 and -0.3, respectively) for univariate analysis. Demographic variables such as age, gender, body mass index, past surgery, and surgical or non-surgical candidate

  11. Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    Andru?cã Maria Carmen

    2013-01-01

    The field of globalization has highlighted an interdependence implied by a more harmonious understanding determined by the daily interaction between nations through the inducement of peace and the management of streamlining and the effectiveness of the global economy. For the functioning of the globalization, the developing countries that can be helped by the developed ones must be involved. The international community can contribute to the institution of the development environment of the gl...

  12. Seasonal mood changes in patients with obsessive-compulsive disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Oğuz; Metin, Barış; Ünsalver, Barış Önen; Sayar, Gökben Hızlı

    2017-12-01

    Obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) is frequently associated with mood disorders. However, to date, the co-occurrence of OCD with seasonal affective disorder (SAD) has not been investigated. We have aimed to estimate the prevalence of seasonal mood changes in patients with OCD and explore the contribution of seasonality in mood to the severity of OCD. The Seasonal Pattern Assessment Questionnaire (SPAQ), the Yale-Brown Obsession and Compulsion Scale (Y-BOCS), the Hamilton Depression Rating Scale-17 Items (HDRS-17), and the Beck Anxiety Inventory (BAI) were administered to patients with OCD (n=104) and controls (n=125). The degree of seasonality was measured by the Global Seasonality Score (GSS) calculated from the SPAQ. SAD and subsyndromal seasonal affective disorder (S-SAD) were significantly more prevalent in patients with OCD (53%, n=55) than controls (25%, n=31). When patients were assessed in the season in which SAD occurs, depression and compulsions (but not obsessions, OCD or anxiety) were more severe than those assessed in a season during which SAD does not occur. SAD frequently co-occurs with OCD and, given this co-occurrence, depression symptoms in some patients with OCD might be expected to vary on a seasonal basis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Relationships among participant international prostate symptom score, benign prostatic hyperplasia impact index changes and global ratings of change in a trial of phytotherapy in men with lower urinary tract symptoms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barry, Michael J; Cantor, Alan; Roehrborn, Claus G

    2013-03-01

    We related changes in American Urological Association symptom index scores with bother measures and global ratings of change in men with lower urinary tract symptoms who were enrolled in a saw palmetto trial. To be eligible for study men were 45 years old or older, and had a peak uroflow of 4 ml per second or greater and an American Urological Association symptom index score of 8 to 24. Participants self-administered the American Urological Association symptom index, International Prostate Symptom Score quality of life item, Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia Impact Index and 2 global change questions at baseline, and at 24, 48 and 72 weeks. In 357 participants global ratings of a little better were associated with a mean decrease in American Urological Association symptom index scores from 2.8 to 4.1 points across 3 time points. The analogous range for mean decreases in Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia Impact Index scores was 1.0 to 1.7 points and for the International Prostate Symptom Score quality of life item it was 0.5 to 0.8 points. At 72 weeks for the first global change question each change measure discriminated between participants who rated themselves at least a little better vs unchanged or worse 70% to 72% of the time. A multivariate model increased discrimination to 77%. For the second global change question each change measure correctly discriminated ratings of at least a little better vs unchanged or worse 69% to 74% of the time and a multivariate model increased discrimination to 79%. Changes in American Urological Association symptom index scores could discriminate between participants rating themselves at least a little better vs unchanged or worse. Our findings support the practice of powering studies to detect group mean differences in American Urological Association symptom index scores of at least 3 points. Copyright © 2013 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. The adjusted Global AntiphosPholipid Syndrome Score (aGAPSS) for risk stratification in young APS patients with acute myocardial infarction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radin, M; Schreiber, K; Costanzo, P; Cecchi, I; Roccatello, D; Baldovino, S; Bazzan, M; Cuadrado, M J; Sciascia, S

    2017-08-01

    Young adults with acute myocardial infarction are a critical group to examine for the purpose of risk factor stratification and modification. In this study we aimed to assess the clinical utility of the adjusted Global AntiphosPholipid Syndrome Score (aGAPSS) for the risk stratification of acute myocardial infarction in a cohort of young patients with antiphospholipid syndrome (APS). The analysis included 83 consecutive APS patients (≤50years old) who presented with arterial or venous thromboembolic events. Data on cardiovascular risk factors and antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL) positivity were retrospectively collected. The aGAPSS was calculated by adding the points corresponding to the risk factors, based on a linear transformation derived from the ß-regression coefficient as follows: 3 for hyperlipidaemia, 1 for arterial hypertension, 5 for aCL IgG/IgM, 4 for anti-b2 glycoprotein I IgG/IgM and 4 for LA. Higher aGAPSS values were observed in patients with acute myocardial infarction when compared to the others [mean aGAPSS 11.9 (S.D. 4.15, range 4-18) Vs. mean aGAPSS 9.2 (S.D. 5.1, range 1-17); T test: psyndrome compared to patients with a history of peripheral or cerebrovascular arterial thrombotic events [mean aGAPSS 11.9 (S.D. 4.15, range 4-18) Vs. mean aGAPSS 6.7 (S.D. 5.7, range 1-17); T test: P<0.005]. The aGAPSS is based upon a quantitative score and could aid risk stratifying APS patients younger than 50years for the likelihood of developing coronary thrombotic events and may guide pharmacological treatment for high-risk patients. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Development and Validation of MRI Sacroiliac Joint Scoring Methods for the Semiaxial Scan Plane Corresponding to the Berlin and SPARCC MRI Scoring Methods, and of a New Global MRI Sacroiliac Joint Method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hededal, Pernille; Østergaard, Mikkel; Sørensen, Inge Juul

    2018-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To develop semiaxial magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scoring methods for assessment of sacroiliac joint (SIJ) bone marrow edema (BME) in patients with axial spondyloarthritis, and to compare the reliability with equivalent semicoronal scoring methods. METHODS: Two semiaxial SIJ MRI sc...

  16. Globalization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Plum, Maja

    Globalization is often referred to as external to education - a state of affair facing the modern curriculum with numerous challenges. In this paper it is examined as internal to curriculum; analysed as a problematization in a Foucaultian sense. That is, as a complex of attentions, worries, ways...... of reasoning, producing curricular variables. The analysis is made through an example of early childhood curriculum in Danish Pre-school, and the way the curricular variable of the pre-school child comes into being through globalization as a problematization, carried forth by the comparative practices of PISA...

  17. Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    F. Gerard Adams

    2008-01-01

    The rapid globalization of the world economy is causing fundamental changes in patterns of trade and finance. Some economists have argued that globalization has arrived and that the world is “flat†. While the geographic scope of markets has increased, the author argues that new patterns of trade and finance are a result of the discrepancies between “old†countries and “new†. As the differences are gradually wiped out, particularly if knowledge and technology spread worldwide, the t...

  18. Diurnal, seasonal and long-term variations of global formaldehyde columns inferred from combined OMI and GOME-2 observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Smedt, I.; Stavrakou, T.; Hendrick, F.; Danckaert, T.; Vlemmix, T.; Pinardi, G.; Theys, N.; Lerot, C.; Gielen, C.; Vigouroux, C.; Hermans, C.; Fayt, C.; Veefkind, P.; Müller, J.-F.; Van Roozendael, M.

    2015-11-01

    We present the new version (v14) of the BIRA-IASB algorithm for the retrieval of formaldehyde (H2CO) columns from spaceborne UV-visible sensors. Applied to OMI measurements from Aura and to GOME-2 measurements from MetOp-A and MetOp-B, this algorithm is used to produce global distributions of H2CO representative of mid-morning and early afternoon conditions. Its main features include (1) a new iterative DOAS scheme involving three fitting intervals to better account for the O2-O2 absorption, (2) the use of earthshine radiances averaged in the equatorial Pacific as reference spectra, and (3) a destriping correction and background normalisation resolved in the across-swath position. For the air mass factor calculation, a priori vertical profiles calculated by the IMAGES chemistry transport model at 09:30 and 13:30 LT are used. Although the resulting GOME-2 and OMI H2CO vertical columns are found to be highly correlated, some systematic differences are observed. Afternoon columns are generally larger than morning ones, especially in mid-latitude regions. In contrast, over tropical rainforests, morning H2CO columns significantly exceed those observed in the afternoon. These differences are discussed in terms of the H2CO column variation between mid-morning and early afternoon, using ground-based MAX-DOAS measurements available from seven stations in Europe, China and Africa. Validation results confirm the capacity of the combined satellite measurements to resolve diurnal variations in H2CO columns. Furthermore, vertical profiles derived from MAX-DOAS measurements in the Beijing area and in Bujumbura are used for a more detailed validation exercise. In both regions, we find an agreement better than 15 % when MAX-DOAS profiles are used as a priori for the satellite retrievals. Finally, regional trends in H2CO columns are estimated for the 2004-2014 period using SCIAMACHY and GOME-2 data for morning conditions, and OMI for early afternoon conditions. Consistent features

  19. A Space-Based Perspective of the 2017 Hurricane Season from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skofronick Jackson, G.; Petersen, W. A.; Huffman, G. J.; Kirschbaum, D.; Wolff, D. B.; Tan, J.; Zavodsky, B.

    2017-12-01

    The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission collected unique, near real time 3-D satellite-based views of hurricanes in 2017 together with estimated precipitation accumulation using merged satellite data for scientific studies and societal applications. Central to GPM is the NASA-JAXA GPM Core Observatory (CO). The GPM-CO carries an advanced dual-frequency precipitation radar (DPR) and a well-calibrated, multi-frequency passive microwave radiometer that together serve as an on orbit reference for precipitation measurements made by the international GPM satellite constellation. GPM-CO overpasses of major Hurricanes such as Harvey, Irma, Maria, and Ophelia revealed intense convective structures in DPR radar reflectivity together with deep ice-phase microphysics in both the eyewalls and outer rain bands. Of considerable scientific interest, and yet to be determined, will be DPR-diagnosed characteristics of the rain drop size distribution as a function of convective structure, intensity and microphysics. The GPM-CO active/passive suite also provided important decision support information. For example, the National Hurricane Center used GPM-CO observations as a tool to inform track and intensity estimates in their forecast briefings. Near-real-time rainfall accumulation from the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) was also provided via the NASA SPoRT team to Puerto Rico following Hurricane Maria when ground-based radar systems on the island failed. Comparisons between IMERG, NOAA Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor data, and rain gauge rainfall accumulations near Houston, Texas during Hurricane Harvey revealed spatial biases between ground and IMERG satellite estimates, and a general underestimation of IMERG rain accumulations associated with infrared observations, collectively illustrating the difficulty of measuring rainfall in hurricanes.GPM data continue to advance scientific research on tropical cyclone intensification and structure, and contribute to

  20. First-year results of the Global Influenza Hospital Surveillance Network: 2012–2013 Northern hemisphere influenza season

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background The Global Influenza Hospital Surveillance Network (GIHSN) was developed to improve understanding of severe influenza infection, as represented by hospitalized cases. The GIHSN is composed of coordinating sites, mainly affiliated with health authorities, each of which supervises and compiles data from one to seven hospitals. This report describes the distribution of influenza viruses A(H1N1), A(H3N2), B/Victoria, and B/Yamagata resulting in hospitalization during 2012–2013, the network’s first year. Methods In 2012–2013, the GIHSN included 21 hospitals (five in Spain, five in France, four in the Russian Federation, and seven in Turkey). All hospitals used a reference protocol and core questionnaire to collect data, and data were consolidated at five coordinating sites. Influenza infection was confirmed by reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction. Hospitalized patients admitted within 7 days of onset of influenza-like illness were included in the analysis. Results Of 5034 patients included with polymerase chain reaction results, 1545 (30.7%) were positive for influenza. Influenza A(H1N1), A(H3N2), and both B lineages co-circulated, although distributions varied greatly between coordinating sites and over time. All age groups were affected. A(H1N1) was the most common influenza strain isolated among hospitalized adults 18–64 years of age at four of five coordinating sites, whereas A(H3N2) and B viruses were isolated more often than A(H1N1) in adults ≥65 years of age at all five coordinating sites. A total of 16 deaths and 20 intensive care unit admissions were recorded among patients with influenza. Conclusions Influenza strains resulting in hospitalization varied greatly between coordinating sites and over time. These first-year results of the GIHSN are relevant, useful, and timely. Due to its broad regional representativeness and sustainable framework, this growing network should contribute substantially to understanding the

  1. Relationships between Participants' International Prostate Symptom Score and BPH Impact Index Changes and Global Ratings of Change in a Trial of Phytotherapy for Men with Lower Urinary Tract Symptoms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barry, Michael J.; Cantor, Alan; Roehrborn, Claus G.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose To relate changes in AUA Symptom Index (AUASI) scores with bother measures and global ratings of change among men with lower urinary tract symptoms enrolled in a trial of saw palmetto. Materials and Methods To be eligible, men were ≥45 years old, had ajpeak uroflow ≥4 ml/sec, and an AUASI score ≥ 8 and ≤ 24. Participants self-administered the AUASI, IPSS quality of life item (IPSS QoL), BPH Impact Index (BII) and two global change questions at baseline and 24, 48, and 72 weeks. Results Among 357 participants, global ratings of “a little better” were associated with mean decreases in AUASI scores from 2.8 to 4.1 points, across three time points. The analogous range for mean decreases in BII scores was 1.0 to 1.7 points, and for the IPSS QoL item 0.5 to 0.8 points. At 72 weeks, for the first global change question, each change measure could discriminate between participants rating themselves at least a little better versus unchanged or worse 70-72% of the time. A multivariable model increased discrimination to 77%. For the second global change question, each change measure correctly discriminated ratings of at least a little better versus unchanged or worse 69-74% of the time, and a multivariable model increased discrimination to 79%. Conclusions Changes in AUASI scores could discriminate between participants rating themselves at least a little better versus unchanged or worse. Our findings support the practice of powering studies to detect group mean differences in AUASI scores of at least 3 points. PMID:23017510

  2. CORRELATION BETWEEN ANTHROPOMETRY, BIOCHEMICAL MARKERS AND SUBJECTIVE GLOBAL ASSESSMENT – DIALYSIS MALNUTRITION SCORE AS PREDICTORS OF NUTRITIONAL STATUS OF THE MAINTENANCE HEMODIALYSIS PATIENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vanitha Rani N, S. Kavimani, Soundararajan P, Chamundeeswari D, Kannan Gopal

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: Protein energy malnutrition is the major cause of poor prognostic outcome in patients on maintenance hemodialysis (MHD. The assessment of nutritional status in patients on maintenance hemodialysis should be done both subjectively and objectively by integrating clinical, biochemical and anthropometric measurements. A study was conducted to assess the possible correlations between the subjective global assessment-dialysis malnutrition score (SGA-DMS, anthropometric measurements, and biochemical parameters in hemodialysis patients. Methods: The study included 90 patients (55 males and 35 females; age range of 25 to 73 years; mean age 52.62 ± 11.7 years undergoing twice/thrice weekly maintenance hemodialysis for six months and above in the dialysis unit of a tertiary care teaching hospital. The MHD patients were assessed by SGA -DMS, anthropometry and biochemical indicators (serum albumin, iron, ferritin and transferrin of nutritional status. Results: According to the SGA-DMS 54.4 % were moderate to severely malnourished, 31% were mild to moderately nourished and 14.4% were well nourished. There was a highly significant negative correlation between SGA –DMS and serum albumin, iron, transferrin; positive correlation between SGA-DMS and ferritin (P<0.0001. Body mass index, upper arm circumferences, and skin fold thickness had a highly significant negative correlation with SGA-DMS (P<0.001, where as the lean body mass, total body water and the fat free mass had a significant negative correlation (P<0.05. Conclusion: SGA-DMS correlated with anthropometric and biochemical parameters that are indicative of nutritional status. SGA –DMS used in conjunction with other objective nutritional assessment methods may be of greater impact in determining nutritional status of hemodialysis patients.

  3. Evaluating Photographs as a Replacement for the In-Person Physical Examination of the Scored Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment in Elderly Hospital Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Michelle; Thomas, Jolene; Suen, Jenni; Ong, De Sheng; Sharma, Yogesh

    2018-05-01

    Undernourished patients discharged from the hospital require follow-up; however, attendance at return visits is low. Teleconsultations may allow remote follow-up of undernourished patients; however, no valid method to remotely perform physical examination, a critical component of assessing nutritional status, exists. This study aims to compare agreement between photographs taken by trained dietitians and in-person physical examinations conducted by trained dietitians to rate the overall physical examination section of the scored Patient Generated Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA). Nested cross-sectional study. Adults aged ≥60 years, admitted to the general medicine unit at Flinders Medical Centre between March 2015 and March 2016, were eligible. All components of the PG-SGA and photographs of muscle and fat sites were collected from 192 participants either in the hospital or at their place of residence after discharge. Validity of photograph-based physical examination was determined by collecting photographic and PG-SGA data from each participant at one encounter by trained dietitians. A dietitian blinded to data collection later assessed de-identified photographs on a computer. Percentage agreement, weighted kappa agreement, sensitivity, and specificity between the photographs and in-person physical examinations were calculated. All data collected were included in the analysis. Overall, the photograph-based physical examination rating achieved a percentage agreement of 75.8% against the in-person assessment, with a weighted kappa agreement of 0.526 (95% CI: 0.416, 0.637; Pexamination by trained dietitians achieved a nearly acceptable percentage agreement, moderate weighted kappa, and fair sensitivity-specificity pair. Methodological refinement before field testing with other personnel may improve the agreement and accuracy of photograph-based physical examination. Copyright © 2018 Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights

  4. Vertical profiles of Mars 1.27 μm O2 dayglow from MRO CRISM limb spectra: Seasonal/global behaviors, comparisons to LMDGCM simulations, and a global definition for Mars water vapor profiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todd Clancy, R.; Smith, Michael D.; Lefèvre, Franck; McConnochie, Timothy H.; Sandor, Brad J.; Wolff, Michael J.; Lee, Steven W.; Murchie, Scott L.; Toigo, Anthony D.; Nair, Hari; Navarro, Thomas

    2017-09-01

    Since July of 2009, The Compact Reconnaissance Imaging Spectral Mapper (CRISM) onboard the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) has periodically obtained pole-to-pole observations (i.e., full MRO orbits) of limb scanned visible/near IR spectra (λ = 0.4 - 4.0 μ m, △λ ∼ 10 nm- Murchie et al., 2007). These CRISM limb observations support the first seasonally and spatially extensive set of Mars 1.27 μm O2(1△g) dayglow profile retrievals (∼ 1100) over ≥ 8-80 km altitudes. Their comparison to Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD) global climate model (GCM) simulated O2(1△g) volume emission rate (VER) profiles, as a function of altitude, latitude, and season (solar longitude, Ls), supports several key conclusions regarding Mars atmospheric water vapor (which is derived from O2(1△g) emission rates), Mars O3, and the collisional de-excitation of O2(1△g) in the Mars CO2 atmosphere. Current (Navarro et al., 2014) LMDGCM simulations of Mars atmospheric water vapor fall 2-3 times below CRISM derived water vapor abundances at 20-40 km altitudes over low-to-mid latitudes in northern spring (Ls = 30-60°), and northern mid-to-high latitudes over northern summer (Ls = 60-140°). In contrast, LMDGCM simulated water vapor is 2-5 times greater than CRISM derived values at all latitudes and seasons above 40 km, within the aphelion cloud belt (ACB), and over high-southern to mid-southern latitudes in southern summer (Ls = 190-340°) at 15-35 km altitudes. Overall, the solstitial summer-to-winter hemisphere gradients in water vapor are reversed between the LMDGCM modeled versus the CRISM derived water vapor abundances above 10-30 km altitudes. LMDGCM-CRISM differences in water vapor profiles correlate with LMDGCM-CRISM differences in cloud mixing profiles; and likely reflect limitations in simulating cloud microphysics and radiative forcing, both of which restrict meridional transport of water from summer-to-winter hemispheres on Mars (Clancy et al., 1996

  5. Combined Value of Red Blood Cell Distribution Width and Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events Risk Score for Predicting Cardiovascular Events in Patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Na; Mi, Lan; Liu, Xiaojun; Pan, Shuo; Xu, Jiaojiao; Xia, Dongyu; Liu, Zhongwei; Zhang, Yong; Xiang, Yu; Yuan, Zuyi; Guan, Gongchang; Wang, Junkui

    2015-01-01

    Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score and red blood cell distribution width (RDW) content can both independently predict major adverse cardiac events (MACEs) in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). We investigated the combined predictive value of RDW and GRACE risk score for cardiovascular events in patients with ACS undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for the first time. We enrolled 480 ACS patients. During a median follow-up time of 37.2 months, 70 (14.58%) patients experienced MACEs. Patients were divided into tertiles according to the baseline RDW content (11.30-12.90, 13.00-13.50, 13.60-16.40). GRACE score was positively correlated with RDW content. Multivariate Cox analysis showed that both GRACE score and RDW content were independent predictors of MACEs (hazard ratio 1.039; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.024-1.055; p risk of MACEs increased with increasing RDW content (p value of combining RDW content and GRACE risk score was significantly improved, also shown by the net reclassification improvement (NRI = 0.352, p value of RDW and GRACE risk score yielded a more accurate predictive value for long-term cardiovascular events in ACS patients who underwent PCI as compared to each measure alone.

  6. Increased health risk in subjects with high self-reported seasonality.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolas M Øyane

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Seasonal variations in mood and behaviour, termed seasonality, are commonly reported in the general population. As a part of a large cross-sectional health survey in Hordaland, Norway, we investigated the relationship between seasonality, objective health measurements and health behaviours. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A total of 11,545 subjects between 40-44 years old participated, completing the Global Seasonality Score, measuring seasonality. Waist/hip circumference, BMI and blood pressure were measured, and blood samples were analyzed for total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, triglycerides and glucose. Subjects also completed a questionnaire on miscellaneous health behaviours (exercise, smoking, alcohol consumption. Hierarchical linear regression analyses were used to investigate associations between seasonality and objective health measurements, while binary logistic regression was used for analysing associations between seasonality and health behaviours. Analyses were adjusted for sociodemographic factors, month of questionnaire completion and sleep duration. Seasonality was positively associated with high waist-hip-ratio, BMI, triglyceride levels, and in men high total cholesterol. Seasonality was negatively associated with HDL cholesterol. In women seasonality was negatively associated with prevalence of exercise and positively associated with daily cigarette smoking. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: High seasonality was associated with objective health risk factors and in women also with health behaviours associated with an increased risk for cardiovascular disease.

  7. High prevalence of seasonal affective disorder among persons with severe visual impairment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Helle Østergaard; Dam, Henrik; Hageman, Ida

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Light severely affects the occurrence of seasonal affective disorder (SAD). AIMS: To compare the prevalence of SAD in persons with severe visual impairment and persons with full sight, and in persons with severe visual impairment with or without light perception. METHOD: This cross......-sectional study assessed the Global Seasonality Score (GSS) and the prevalence of SAD among 2781 persons with visual impairment and 4099 persons with full sight using the Seasonal Pattern Assessment Questionnaire (SPAQ). RESULTS: Respondents with visual impairment had significantly higher GSS and prevalence...... of SAD compared with full sight controls, Pvisual impairment and SPAQ-defined SAD parameters...

  8. Score de diversité alimentaire, un moyen pour une évaluation globale de l'alimentation chez l'adolescent [Score of food diversity, amethod for overall assessment of diet in adolescents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rabiâa KAROUNE

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. The use of Food Diversity Score (SDA has become the choice method for the overall evaluation of the diet. Objective. Definition and use of SDA for food assessment in adolescents. Material and Methods. A descriptive cross-sectional survey was conducted among 327 teenagers (11-19 years in eastern Algeria. A food frequency questionnaire was used. SDA was calculated to assess adequacy of diet with the recommendations of the National Nutrition and Health Program (PNNS, France. Results. The SDA was 0 to 7. More it was high, more the diet was healthy. SDA 4.6 was found in both girls and boys (46.6% vs 53.3%, p = 0.21. Lean teenagers represented 6% against 25% of overweight or obesity. Fruits and vegetables consumption less than 3 times/day was noted in 69% of girls versus 53% of boys ( = 0.003. Over 31% of girls consumed less than one dairy product / day against 12% of boys (p = 0.0003. Sweeteners were consumed more than twice / day mainly by girls (73% vs 57%, p=0.002. Conclusion. Compared with PNNS benchmarks, adolescents feeding has many shortcomings. The low consumption of fruits, vegetables and dairy products, and high consumption of sweeteners can have adverse consequences on the development and corpulence of adolescents. This can have health problems in adulthood.

  9. Epidemiology of Hospital Admissions with Influenza during the 2013/2014 Northern Hemisphere Influenza Season: Results from the Global Influenza Hospital Surveillance Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puig-Barberà, Joan; Natividad-Sancho, Angels; Trushakova, Svetlana; Sominina, Anna; Pisareva, Maria; Ciblak, Meral A.; Badur, Selim; Yu, Hongjie; Cowling, Benjamin J.; El Guerche-Séblain, Clotilde; Mira-Iglesias, Ainara; Kisteneva, Lidiya; Stolyarov, Kirill; Yurtcu, Kubra; Feng, Luzhao; López-Labrador, Xavier; Burtseva, Elena

    2016-01-01

    Background The Global Influenza Hospital Surveillance Network was established in 2012 to obtain valid epidemiologic data on hospital admissions with influenza-like illness. Here we describe the epidemiology of admissions with influenza within the Northern Hemisphere sites during the 2013/2014 influenza season, identify risk factors for severe outcomes and complications, and assess the impact of different influenza viruses on clinically relevant outcomes in at-risk populations. Methods Eligible consecutive admissions were screened for inclusion at 19 hospitals in Russia, Turkey, China, and Spain using a prospective, active surveillance approach. Patients that fulfilled a common case definition were enrolled and epidemiological data were collected. Risk factors for hospitalization with laboratory-confirmed influenza were identified by multivariable logistic regression. Findings 5303 of 9507 consecutive admissions were included in the analysis. Of these, 1086 were influenza positive (534 A(H3N2), 362 A(H1N1), 130 B/Yamagata lineage, 3 B/Victoria lineage, 40 untyped A, and 18 untyped B). The risk of hospitalization with influenza (adjusted odds ratio [95% confidence interval]) was elevated for patients with cardiovascular disease (1.63 [1.33–2.02]), asthma (2.25 [1.67–3.03]), immunosuppression (2.25 [1.23–4.11]), renal disease (2.11 [1.48–3.01]), liver disease (1.94 [1.18–3.19], autoimmune disease (2.97 [1.58–5.59]), and pregnancy (3.84 [2.48–5.94]). Patients without comorbidities accounted for 60% of admissions with influenza. The need for intensive care or in-hospital death was not significantly different between patients with or without influenza. Influenza vaccination was associated with a lower risk of confirmed influenza (adjusted odds ratio = 0.61 [0.48–0.77]). Conclusions Influenza infection was detected among hospital admissions with and without known risk factors. Pregnancy and underlying comorbidity increased the risk of detecting influenza

  10. Relationships between high-stakes clinical skills exam scores and program director global competency ratings of first-year pediatric residents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erik E. Langenau

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Responding to mandates from the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME and American Osteopathic Association (AOA, residency programs have developed competency-based assessment tools. One such tool is the American College of Osteopathic Pediatricians (ACOP program directors’ annual report. High-stakes clinical skills licensing examinations, such as the Comprehensive Osteopathic Medical Licensing Examination Level 2-Performance Evaluation (COMLEX-USA Level 2-PE, also assess competency in several clinical domains.The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationships between program director competency ratings of first-year osteopathic residents in pediatrics and COMLEX-USA Level 2-PE scores from 2005 to 2009.The sample included all 94 pediatric first-year residents who took COMLEX-USA Level 2-PE and whose training was reviewed by the ACOP for approval of training between 2005 and 2009. Program director competency ratings and COMLEX-USA Level 2-PE scores (domain and component were merged and analyzed for relationships.Biomedical/biomechanical domain scores were positively correlated with overall program director competency ratings. Humanistic domain scores were not significantly correlated with overall program director competency ratings, but did show moderate correlation with ratings for interpersonal and communication skills. The six ACGME or seven AOA competencies assessed empirically by the ACOP program directors’ annual report could not be recovered by principal component analysis; instead, three factors were identified, accounting for 86% of the variance between competency ratings.A few significant correlations were noted between COMLEX-USA Level 2-PE scores and program director competency ratings. Exploring relationships between different clinical skills assessments is inherently difficult because of the heterogeneity of tools used and overlap of constructs within the AOA and ACGME core competencies.

  11. Relationships between high-stakes clinical skills exam scores and program director global competency ratings of first-year pediatric residents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langenau, Erik E.; Pugliano, Gina; Roberts, William L.

    2011-01-01

    Background Responding to mandates from the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) and American Osteopathic Association (AOA), residency programs have developed competency-based assessment tools. One such tool is the American College of Osteopathic Pediatricians (ACOP) program directors’ annual report. High-stakes clinical skills licensing examinations, such as the Comprehensive Osteopathic Medical Licensing Examination Level 2-Performance Evaluation (COMLEX-USA Level 2-PE), also assess competency in several clinical domains. Objective The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationships between program director competency ratings of first-year osteopathic residents in pediatrics and COMLEX-USA Level 2-PE scores from 2005 to 2009. Methods The sample included all 94 pediatric first-year residents who took COMLEX-USA Level 2-PE and whose training was reviewed by the ACOP for approval of training between 2005 and 2009. Program director competency ratings and COMLEX-USA Level 2-PE scores (domain and component) were merged and analyzed for relationships. Results Biomedical/biomechanical domain scores were positively correlated with overall program director competency ratings. Humanistic domain scores were not significantly correlated with overall program director competency ratings, but did show moderate correlation with ratings for interpersonal and communication skills. The six ACGME or seven AOA competencies assessed empirically by the ACOP program directors’ annual report could not be recovered by principal component analysis; instead, three factors were identified, accounting for 86% of the variance between competency ratings. Discussion A few significant correlations were noted between COMLEX-USA Level 2-PE scores and program director competency ratings. Exploring relationships between different clinical skills assessments is inherently difficult because of the heterogeneity of tools used and overlap of constructs within the AOA

  12. A comparison of global rating scale and checklist scores in the validation of an evaluation tool to assess performance in the resuscitation of critically ill patients during simulated emergencies (abbreviated as "CRM simulator study IB").

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, John; Neilipovitz, David; Cardinal, Pierre; Chiu, Michelle

    2009-01-01

    Crisis resource management (CRM) skills are a set of nonmedical skills required to manage medical emergencies. There is currently no gold standard for evaluation of CRM performance. A prior study examined the use of a global rating scale (GRS) to evaluate CRM performance. This current study compared the use of a GRS and a checklist as formal rating instruments to evaluate CRM performance during simulated emergencies. First-year and third-year residents participated in two simulator scenarios each. Three raters then evaluated resident performance in CRM using edited video recordings using both a GRS and a checklist. The Ottawa GRS provides a seven-point anchored ordinal scale for performance in five categories of CRM, and an overall performance score. The Ottawa CRM checklist provides 12 items in the five categories of CRM, with a maximum cumulative score of 30 points. Construct validity was measured on the basis of content validity, response process, internal structure, and response to other variables. T-test analysis of Ottawa GRS scores was conducted to examine response to the variable of level of training. Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) scores were used to measure inter-rater reliability for both scenarios. Thirty-two first-year and 28 third-year residents participated in the study. Third-year residents produced higher mean scores for overall CRM performance than first-year residents (P CRM checklist (P CRM checklist. Users indicated a strong preference for the Ottawa GRS given ease of scoring, presence of an overall score, and the potential for formative evaluation. Construct validity seems to be present when using both the Ottawa GRS and CRM checklist to evaluate CRM performance during simulated emergencies. Data also indicate the presence of moderate inter-rater reliability when using both the Ottawa GRS and CRM checklist.

  13. Combined Value of Red Blood Cell Distribution Width and Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events Risk Score for Predicting Cardiovascular Events in Patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Na Zhao

    Full Text Available Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE risk score and red blood cell distribution width (RDW content can both independently predict major adverse cardiac events (MACEs in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS. We investigated the combined predictive value of RDW and GRACE risk score for cardiovascular events in patients with ACS undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI for the first time. We enrolled 480 ACS patients. During a median follow-up time of 37.2 months, 70 (14.58% patients experienced MACEs. Patients were divided into tertiles according to the baseline RDW content (11.30-12.90, 13.00-13.50, 13.60-16.40. GRACE score was positively correlated with RDW content. Multivariate Cox analysis showed that both GRACE score and RDW content were independent predictors of MACEs (hazard ratio 1.039; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.024-1.055; p < 0.001; 1.699; 1.294-2.232; p < 0.001; respectively. Furthermore, Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated that the risk of MACEs increased with increasing RDW content (p < 0.001. For GRACE score alone, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve for MACEs was 0.749 (95% CI: 0.707-0.787. The area under the ROC curve for MACEs increased to 0.805 (0.766-0.839, p = 0.034 after adding RDW content. The incremental predictive value of combining RDW content and GRACE risk score was significantly improved, also shown by the net reclassification improvement (NRI = 0.352, p < 0.001 and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI = 0.023, p = 0.002. Combining the predictive value of RDW and GRACE risk score yielded a more accurate predictive value for long-term cardiovascular events in ACS patients who underwent PCI as compared to each measure alone.

  14. Estimating NHL Scoring Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Buttrey, Samuel E.; Washburn, Alan R.; Price, Wilson L.; Operations Research

    2011-01-01

    The article of record as published may be located at http://dx.doi.org/10.2202/1559-0410.1334 We propose a model to estimate the rates at which NHL teams score and yield goals. In the model, goals occur as if from a Poisson process whose rate depends on the two teams playing, the home-ice advantage, and the manpower (power-play, short-handed) situation. Data on all the games from the 2008-2009 season was downloaded and processed into a form suitable for the analysis. The model...

  15. Seasonal difference in brain serotonin transporter binding predicts symptom severity in patients with seasonal affective disorder

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mc Mahon, Brenda; Andersen, Sofie B.; Madsen, Martin K.

    2016-01-01

    controls with low seasonality scores and 17 patients diagnosed with seasonal affective disorder were scanned in both summer and winter to investigate differences in cerebral serotonin transporter binding across groups and across seasons. The two groups had similar cerebral serotonin transporter binding...... between summer and winter (Psex-(P = 0.02) and genotype-(P = 0.04) dependent. In the patients with seasonal affective disorder, the seasonal change in serotonin transporter binding was positively associated with change in depressive symptom...

  16. [Prognostic scores for pulmonary embolism].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junod, Alain

    2016-03-23

    Nine prognostic scores for pulmonary embolism (PE), based on retrospective and prospective studies, published between 2000 and 2014, have been analyzed and compared. Most of them aim at identifying PE cases with a low risk to validate their ambulatory care. Important differences in the considered outcomes: global mortality, PE-specific mortality, other complications, sizes of low risk groups, exist between these scores. The most popular score appears to be the PESI and its simplified version. Few good quality studies have tested the applicability of these scores to PE outpatient care, although this approach tends to already generalize in the medical practice.

  17. Seasonal Variations in Mood and Behavior in Romanian Postgraduate Students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph J. Soriano

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available To our knowledge, this paper is the first to estimate seasonality of mood in a predominantly Caucasian sample, living in areas with hot summers and a relative unavailability of air conditioning. As a summer pattern of seasonal depression was previously associated with a vulnerability to heat exposure, we hypothesized that those with access to air conditioners would have a lower rate of summer seasonal affective disorder (SAD compared to those without air conditioning. A convenience sample of 476 Romanian postgraduate students completed the Seasonal Pattern Assessment Questionnaire (SPAQ, which was used to calculate a global seasonality score (GSS and to estimate the rates of winter- and summer-type SAD. The ratio of summer- vs. winter-type SAD was compared using multinomial probability distribution tests. We also compared the ratio of summer SAD in individuals with vs. without air conditioners. Winter SAD and winter subsyndromal SAD (S-SAD were significantly more prevalent than summer SAD and summer S-SAD. Those with access to air conditioners had a higher, rather than a lower, rate of summer SAD. Our results are consistent with prior studies that reported a lower prevalence of summer than winter SAD in Caucasian populations. Finding an increased rate of summer SAD in the minority of those with access to air conditioners was surprising and deserves replication.

  18. Seasonal Changes in Central England Temperatures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Proietti, Tommaso; Hillebrand, Eric

    The aim of this paper is to assess how climate change is reflected in the variation of the seasonal patterns of the monthly Central England Temperature time series between 1772 and 2013. In particular, we model changes in the amplitude and phase of the seasonal cycle. Starting from the seminal work...... by Thomson (“The Seasons, Global Temperature and Precession”, Science, 7 April 1995, vol 268, p. 59–68), a number of studies have documented a shift in the phase of the annual cycle implying an earlier onset of the spring season at various European locations. A significant reduction in the amplitude...... and stochastic trends, as well as seasonally varying autocorrelation and residual variances. The model can be summarized as containing a permanent and a transitory component, where global warming is captured in the permanent component, on which the seasons load differentially. The phase of the seasonal cycle...

  19. An empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eden, Jonathan; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Hawkins, Ed; Suckling, Emma

    2016-04-01

    Preparing for episodes with risks of anomalous weather a month to a year ahead is an important challenge for governments, non-governmental organisations, and private companies and is dependent on the availability of reliable forecasts. The majority of operational seasonal forecasts are made using process-based dynamical models, which are complex, computationally challenging and prone to biases. Empirical forecast approaches built on statistical models to represent physical processes offer an alternative to dynamical systems and can provide either a benchmark for comparison or independent supplementary forecasts. Here, we present a simple empirical system based on multiple linear regression for producing probabilistic forecasts of seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation across the globe. The global CO2-equivalent concentration is taken as the primary predictor; subsequent predictors, including large-scale modes of variability in the climate system and local-scale information, are selected on the basis of their physical relationship with the predictand. The focus given to the climate change signal as a source of skill and the probabilistic nature of the forecasts produced constitute a novel approach to global empirical prediction. Hindcasts for the period 1961-2013 are validated against observations using deterministic (correlation of seasonal means) and probabilistic (continuous rank probability skill scores) metrics. Good skill is found in many regions, particularly for surface air temperature and most notably in much of Europe during the spring and summer seasons. For precipitation, skill is generally limited to regions with known El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections. The system is used in a quasi-operational framework to generate empirical seasonal forecasts on a monthly basis.

  20. Allegheny County Walk Scores

    Data.gov (United States)

    Allegheny County / City of Pittsburgh / Western PA Regional Data Center — Walk Score measures the walkability of any address using a patented system developed by the Walk Score company. For each 2010 Census Tract centroid, Walk Score...

  1. Seasonal changes, sleep length and circadian preference among twins with bipolar disorder

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Koskenvuo Markku

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background We aimed at studying the seasonal changes in mood and behaviour, the distribution of hospital admissions by season, and the persistence of the circadian type in twins with bipolar disorder and their healthy co-twins. Methods All Finnish like-sex twins born from 1940 to 1969 were screened for a diagnosis of bipolar type I disorder. The diagnosis was assessed with a structured research interview, and the study subjects (n = 67 filled in the Seasonal Pattern Assessment Questionnaire (SPAQ and the Morningness-Eveningness Questionnaire (MEQ. For studying the persistence of the habitual sleep length and circadian type, we used data derived from the Finnish Twin Cohort Questionnaire (FTCQ. Bipolar twins were compared with their healthy co-twins. Results Bipolar twins had greater seasonal changes in sleep length (p = 0.01 and mood (p = 0.01, and higher global seasonality scores (p = 0.03 as compared with their co-twins with no mental disorder. Sunny days (p = 0.03 had a greater positive effect on wellbeing in the bipolar than healthy co-twins. Conclusions Our results support the view that bipolar disorder is sensitive to the environmental influence in general and to the seasonal effect in specific. Exposure to natural light appears to have a substantial effect on wellbeing in twins with bipolar disorder.

  2. Seasonal changes in mood and behavior are linked to metabolic syndrome.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reeta Rintamäki

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Obesity is a major public health problem worldwide. Metabolic syndrome is a risk factor to the cardiovascular diseases. It has been reported that disruptions of the circadian clockwork are associated with and may predispose to metabolic syndrome. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: 8028 individuals attended a nationwide health examination survey in Finland. Data were collected with a face-to-face interview at home and during an individual health status examination. The waist circumference, height, weight and blood pressure were measured and samples were taken for laboratory tests. Participants were assessed using the ATP-III criteria for metabolic syndrome and with the Seasonal Pattern Assessment Questionnaire for their seasonal changes in mood and behavior. Seasonal changes in weight in particular were a risk factor of metabolic syndrome, after controlling for a number of known risk and potential confounding factors. CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE: Metabolic syndrome is associated with high global scores on the seasonal changes in mood and behavior, and with those in weight in particular. Assessment of these changes may serve as a useful indicator of metabolic syndrome, because of easy assessment. Abnormalities in the circadian clockwork which links seasonal fluctuations to metabolic cycles may predispose to seasonal changes in weight and to metabolic syndrome.

  3. Influenza Seasonal Summary, 2014-2015 Season

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-08-14

    Influenza Seasonal Summarv 2014-2015 Season EpiData Center Department Communicable Disease Division NMCPHC-EDC-TR-394-2015 REPORT DOCUMENTATION... Influenza Seasonal Summary, 2014-2015 Season Sb. GRANT NUMBER $c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHORjS) Sd. PROJECT NUMBER Ashleigh K McCabe, Kristen R...SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 1<l. ABSTRACT This report summartzes influenza activity among Department of Navy (DON) and Depar1ment of Defense (DOD

  4. Seasonality, mobility, and livability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-31

    Signature project 4a, Seasonality, Mobility, and Livability investigated the effects of weather, season, built environment, community amenities, attitudes, and demographics on mobility and quality of life (QOL). A four season panel survey exami...

  5. Effects of road transportation on excitability scores of pigs ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    STORAGESEVER

    2010-02-08

    Feb 8, 2010 ... excitability scores of pigs administered ascorbic acid (AA) during the hot-dry season in Northern. Nigeria. Thirteen .... the Northern Guinea Savannah zone of Nigeria for transportation of pigs was .... modern swine production.

  6. A Lotka-Volterra competition model with seasonal succession.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Sze-Bi; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

    2012-01-01

    A complete classification for the global dynamics of a Lotka-Volterra two species competition model with seasonal succession is obtained via the stability analysis of equilibria and the theory of monotone dynamical systems. The effects of two death rates in the bad season and the proportion of the good season on the competition outcomes are also discussed. © Springer-Verlag 2011

  7. Combination of synoptical-analogous and dynamical methods to increase skill score of monthly air temperature forecasts over Northern Eurasia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Valentina; Tscepelev, Valery; Vilfand, Roman; Kulikova, Irina; Kruglova, Ekaterina; Tischenko, Vladimir

    2016-04-01

    Long-range forecasts at monthly-seasonal time scale are in great demand of socio-economic sectors for exploiting climate-related risks and opportunities. At the same time, the quality of long-range forecasts is not fully responding to user application necessities. Different approaches, including combination of different prognostic models, are used in forecast centers to increase the prediction skill for specific regions and globally. In the present study, two forecasting methods are considered which are exploited in operational practice of Hydrometeorological Center of Russia. One of them is synoptical-analogous method of forecasting of surface air temperature at monthly scale. Another one is dynamical system based on the global semi-Lagrangian model SL-AV, developed in collaboration of Institute of Numerical Mathematics and Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia. The seasonal version of this model has been used to issue global and regional forecasts at monthly-seasonal time scales. This study presents results of the evaluation of surface air temperature forecasts generated with using above mentioned synoptical-statistical and dynamical models, and their combination to potentially increase skill score over Northern Eurasia. The test sample of operational forecasts is encompassing period from 2010 through 2015. The seasonal and interannual variability of skill scores of these methods has been discussed. It was noticed that the quality of all forecasts is highly dependent on the inertia of macro-circulation processes. The skill scores of forecasts are decreasing during significant alterations of synoptical fields for both dynamical and empirical schemes. Procedure of combination of forecasts from different methods, in some cases, has demonstrated its effectiveness. For this study the support has been provided by Grant of Russian Science Foundation (№14-37-00053).

  8. Seasonality of mood and behavior in the Old Order Amish.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raheja, Uttam K; Stephens, Sarah H; Mitchell, Braxton D; Rohan, Kelly J; Vaswani, Dipika; Balis, Theodora G; Nijjar, Gagan V; Sleemi, Aamar; Pollin, Toni I; Ryan, Kathleen; Reeves, Gloria M; Weitzel, Nancy; Morrissey, Mary; Yousufi, Hassaan; Langenberg, Patricia; Shuldiner, Alan R; Postolache, Teodor T

    2013-05-01

    We examined seasonality and winter seasonal affective disorder (SAD) in the Old Order Amish of Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, a unique population that prohibits use of network electric light in their homes. We estimated SAD using the seasonal pattern assessment questionnaire (SPAQ) in 1306 Amish adults and compared the frequencies of SAD and total SAD (i.e., presence of either SAD or subsyndromal-SAD) between men and women, young and old, and awareness of (ever vs. never heard about) SAD. Heritability of global seasonality score (GSS) was estimated using the maximum likelihood method, including a household effect to capture shared environmental effects. The mean (±SD) GSS was 4.36 (±3.38). Prevalence was 0.84% (95% CI: 0.36-1.58) for SAD and 2.59% (95% CI: 1.69-3.73) for total SAD. Heritability of GSS was 0.14±0.06 (SE) (p=0.002) after adjusting for age, gender, and household effects. Limitations include likely overestimation of the rates of SAD by SPAQ, possible selection bias and recall bias, and limited generalizability of the study. In the Amish, GSS and SAD prevalence were lower than observed in earlier SPAQ-based studies in other predominantly Caucasian populations. Low heritability of SAD suggests dominant environmental effects. The effects of awareness, age and gender on SAD risk were similar as in previous studies. Identifying factors of resilience to SAD in the face of seasonal changes in the Amish could suggest novel preventative and therapeutic approaches to reduce the impact of SAD in the general population. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Epidemiology, Seasonality and Factors Associated with Rotavirus Infection among Children with Moderate-to-Severe Diarrhea in Rural Western Kenya, 2008-2012: The Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard Omore

    Full Text Available To evaluate factors associated with rotavirus diarrhea and to describe severity of illness among children <5 years old with non-dysenteric, moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD in rural western Kenya.We analyzed data from children <5 years old with non-dysenteric MSD enrolled as cases in the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS in Kenya. A non-dysenteric MSD case was defined as a child with ≥3 loose stools in 24 hrs. and one or more of the following: sunken eyes, skin tenting, intravenous rehydration, or hospitalization, who sought care at a sentinel health center within 7 days of illness onset. Rotavirus antigens in stool samples were detected by ELISA. Demographic and clinical information was collected at enrollment and during a single follow-up home visit at approximately 60 days. We analyzed diarrhea severity using a GEMS 17 point numerical scoring system adapted from the Vesikari score. We used logistic regression to evaluate factors associated with rotavirus infection.From January 31, 2008 to September 30, 2012, among 1,637 (92% non-dysenteric MSD cases, rotavirus was detected in stools of 245 (15.0%. Rotavirus-positive compared with negative cases were: younger (median age, 8 vs. 13 months; p<0.0001, had more severe illness (median severity score, 9 vs 8; p<0.0001 and had to be hospitalized more frequently (37/245 [15.1%] vs. 134/1,392 [9.6%], p <0.013. Independent factors associated with rotavirus infection included age 0-11 months old (aOR = 5.29, 95% CI 3.14-8.89 and presenting with vomiting ≥3 times/24hrs (aOR = 2.58, 95% CI [1.91-3.48]. Rotavirus was detected more commonly in warm and dry months than in the cool and rainy months (142/691 [20%] vs 70/673 [10%] p<0.0001.Diarrhea caused by rotavirus is associated with severe symptoms leading to hospitalization. Consistent with other settings, infants had the greatest burden of disease.

  10. Mood Sensitivity to Seasonal Changes in African College Students Living in the Greater Washington D.C. Metropolitan Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alvaro Guzman

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to estimate the degree of seasonality and prevalence of winter- and summer-type seasonal affective disorder (SAD in African immigrant college students in comparison with African American peers. A convenience sample of 246 African immigrants and 599 African Americans studying in Washington, D.C. completed the Seasonal Pattern Assessment Questionnaire (SPAQ, which was used to calculate a global seasonality score (GSS and to estimate the prevalence of winter- and summer-type SAD. Degree of seasonality was related to a complex interaction between having general awareness of SAD, ethnicity, and gender. A greater percentage of African students reported experiencing a problem with seasonal changes relative to African American students, and had summer SAD, but the groups did not differ on GSS and winter SAD. African students reported more difficulties with seasonal changes than their African American peers, which could represent a manifestation of incomplete acclimatization to a higher latitude and temperate climate. As Africans also had a greater rate of summer SAD, this argues against acclimatization to heat.

  11. The Zhongshan Score

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Lin; Guo, Jianming; Wang, Hang; Wang, Guomin

    2015-01-01

    Abstract In the zero ischemia era of nephron-sparing surgery (NSS), a new anatomic classification system (ACS) is needed to adjust to these new surgical techniques. We devised a novel and simple ACS, and compared it with the RENAL and PADUA scores to predict the risk of NSS outcomes. We retrospectively evaluated 789 patients who underwent NSS with available imaging between January 2007 and July 2014. Demographic and clinical data were assessed. The Zhongshan (ZS) score consisted of three parameters. RENAL, PADUA, and ZS scores are divided into three groups, that is, high, moderate, and low scores. For operative time (OT), significant differences were seen between any two groups of ZS score and PADUA score (all P RENAL showed no significant difference between moderate and high complexity in OT, WIT, estimated blood loss, and increase in SCr. Compared with patients with a low score of ZS, those with a high or moderate score had 8.1-fold or 3.3-fold higher risk of surgical complications, respectively (all P RENAL score, patients with a high or moderate score had 5.7-fold or 1.9-fold higher risk of surgical complications, respectively (all P RENAL and PADUA scores. ZS score could be used to reflect the surgical complexity and predict the risk of surgical complications in patients undergoing NSS. PMID:25654399

  12. Previsões climáticas sazonais sobre o Brasil: avaliação do RegCM3 aninhado no modelo global CPTEC/COLA Seasonal climatic forecast over Brazil: evaluation of the RegCM3 model nested to the CPTEC/COLA global model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rubinei Dorneles Machado

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Este trabalho avalia o desempenho de previsões sazonais do modelo climático regional RegCM3, aninhado ao modelo global CPTEC/COLA. As previsões com o RegCM3 utilizaram 60 km de resolução horizontal num domínio que inclui grande parte da América do Sul. As previsões do RegCM3 e CPTEC/COLA foram avaliadas utilizando as análises de chuva e temperatura do ar do Climate Prediction Center (CPC e National Centers for Enviromental Prediction (NCEP, respectivamente. Entre maio de 2005 e julho de 2007, 27 previsões sazonais de chuva e temperatura do ar (exceto a temperatura do CPTEC/COLA, que possui 26 previsões foram avaliadas em três regiões do Brasil: Nordeste (NDE, Sudeste (SDE e Sul (SUL. As previsões do RegCM3 também foram comparadas com as climatologias das análises. De acordo com os índices estatísticos (bias, coeficiente de correlação, raiz quadrada do erro médio quadrático e coeficiente de eficiência, nas três regiões (NDE, SDE e SUL a chuva sazonal prevista pelo RegCM3 é mais próxima da observada do que a prevista pelo CPTEC/COLA. Além disto, o RegCM3 também é melhor previsor da chuva sazonal do que da média das observações nas três regiões. Para temperatura, as previsões do RegCM3 são superiores às do CPTEC/COLA nas áreas NDE e SUL, enquanto o CPTEC/COLA é superior no SDE. Finalmente, as previsões de chuva e temperatura do RegCM3 são mais próximas das observações do que a climatologia observada. Estes resultados indicam o potencial de utilização do RegCM3 para previsão sazonal, que futuramente deverá ser explorado através de previsão por conjunto.This study presents an assessment of seasonal forecasts from the regional climate model RegCM3 nested to the CPTEC/COLA global model. The used RegCM3 version is 60 km horizontal resolution over an area that includes large part of South America. RegCM3 and CPTEC/COLA forecasts were evaluated using the rainfall and air temperature analyses from Climate

  13. Sorting Out Seasonal Allergies

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Close ‹ Back to Healthy Living Sorting Out Seasonal Allergies Sneezing, runny nose, nasal congestion. Symptoms of the ... How do I know if I have seasonal allergies? According to Dr. Georgeson, the best way to ...

  14. How to score questionnaires

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hofstee, W.K.B.; Ten Berge, J.M.F.; Hendriks, A.A.J.

    The standard practice in scoring questionnaires consists of adding item scores and standardizing these sums. We present a set of alternative procedures, consisting of (a) correcting for the acquiescence variance that disturbs the structure of the questionnaire; (b) establishing item weights through

  15. SCORE - A DESCRIPTION.

    Science.gov (United States)

    SLACK, CHARLES W.

    REINFORCEMENT AND ROLE-REVERSAL TECHNIQUES ARE USED IN THE SCORE PROJECT, A LOW-COST PROGRAM OF DELINQUENCY PREVENTION FOR HARD-CORE TEENAGE STREET CORNER BOYS. COMMITTED TO THE BELIEF THAT THE BOYS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ETHICAL BEHAVIOR, THE SCORE WORKER FOLLOWS B.F. SKINNER'S THEORY OF OPERANT CONDITIONING AND REINFORCES THE DELINQUENT'S GOOD…

  16. Seasonal Allergies (Hay Fever)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Safe Videos for Educators Search English Español Seasonal Allergies (Hay Fever) KidsHealth / For Parents / Seasonal Allergies (Hay ... español Alergia estacional (fiebre del heno) About Seasonal Allergies "Achoo!" It's your son's third sneezing fit of ...

  17. Seasonal Variation in Epidemiology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marrero, Osvaldo

    2013-01-01

    Seasonality analyses are important in medical research. If the incidence of a disease shows a seasonal pattern, then an environmental factor must be considered in its etiology. We discuss a method for the simultaneous analysis of seasonal variation in multiple groups. The nuts and bolts are explained using simple trigonometry, an elementary…

  18. Seasonality and dietary requirements: will eating seasonal food contribute to health and environmental sustainability?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macdiarmid, Jennie I

    2014-08-01

    Eating more seasonal food is one proposal for moving towards more sustainable consumption patterns, based on the assumption that it could reduce the environmental impact of the diet. The aim of the present paper is to consider the implications of eating seasonal food on the different elements of sustainability (i.e. health, economics, society), not just the environment. Seasonality can be defined as either globally seasonal (i.e. produced in the natural production season but consumed anywhere in the world) or locally seasonal (i.e. produced in the natural production season and consumed within the same climatic zone). The environmental, health, economic and societal impact varies by the definition used. Global seasonality has the nutritional benefit of providing a more varied and consistent supply of fresh produce year round, but this increases demand for foods that in turn can have a high environmental cost in the country of production (e.g. water stress, land use change with loss of biodiversity). Greenhouse gas emissions of globally seasonal food are not necessarily higher than food produced locally as it depends more on the production system used than transportation. Eating more seasonal food, however, is only one element of a sustainable diet and should not overshadow some of the potentially more difficult dietary behaviours to change that could have greater environmental and health benefits (e.g. reducing overconsumption or meat consumption). For future guidelines for sustainable diets to be realistic they will need to take into account modern lifestyles, cultural and social expectations in the current food environment.

  19. Personality and Examination Score Correlates of Abnormal Psychology Course Ratings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pauker, Jerome D.

    The relationship between the ratings students assigned to an evening undergraduate abnormal psychology class and their scores on objective personality tests and course examinations was investigated. Students (N=70) completed the MMPI and made global ratings of the course; these scores were correlated separately by sex with the T scores of 13 MMPI…

  20. The Bandim tuberculosis score

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rudolf, Frauke; Joaquim, Luis Carlos; Vieira, Cesaltina

    2013-01-01

    Background: This study was carried out in Guinea-Bissau ’ s capital Bissau among inpatients and outpatients attending for tuberculosis (TB) treatment within the study area of the Bandim Health Project, a Health and Demographic Surveillance Site. Our aim was to assess the variability between 2...... physicians in performing the Bandim tuberculosis score (TBscore), a clinical severity score for pulmonary TB (PTB), and to compare it to the Karnofsky performance score (KPS). Method : From December 2008 to July 2009 we assessed the TBscore and the KPS of 100 PTB patients at inclusion in the TB cohort and...

  1. Volleyball Scoring Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calhoun, William; Dargahi-Noubary, G. R.; Shi, Yixun

    2002-01-01

    The widespread interest in sports in our culture provides an excellent opportunity to catch students' attention in mathematics and statistics classes. One mathematically interesting aspect of volleyball, which can be used to motivate students, is the scoring system. (MM)

  2. Insight in seasonal affective disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghaemi, S N; Sachs, G S; Baldassano, C F; Truman, C J

    1997-01-01

    Lack of insight complicates the evaluation and treatment of patients with psychotic and affective disorders. No studies of insight in seasonal affective disorder (SAD) have been reported. Thirty patients with SAD diagnosed by the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-III-R but no other axis I conditions were treated short-term with light-therapy. Insight was measured with the Scale to Assess Unawareness of Mental Disorder (SUMD) as modified by the authors to assess the self-report of insight into depressive symptoms. Increasing scores (1 to 5) indicated increasing unawareness of illness (i.e., less insight). SAD patients displayed a moderate amount of insight when depressed (mean SUMD score, 2.5). When recovered, they showed no significant change in insight into past depressive symptoms (mean SUMD score, 2.8). Greater insight into current depressive symptoms correlated with more depressive symptoms on the Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression score ([HRSD] r = .35, P depressive symptoms that does not change after recovery, a result in agreement with studies of insight in psychosis and mania. Further, in SAD, increased severity of illness may be associated with increased insight into depressive symptoms, consistent with the hypothesis of depressive realism.

  3. Seasonal soil moisture patterns in contrasting habitats in the Willamette Valley, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Changing seasonal soil moisture regimes caused by global warming may alter plant community composition in sensitive habitats such as wetlands and oak savannas. To evaluate such changes, an understanding of typical seasonal soil moisture regimes is necessary. The primary objective...

  4. Variabilidade sazonal da relação entre a radiação fotossinteticamente ativa e a radiação global na bacia do rio Doce, Estado de Minas Gerais = Seasonal variability of the relationship between the photosynthetically active radiation and the global radiation at the river Doce basin, Minas Gerais State

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio José Steidle Neto

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available O conhecimento da Radiação Fotossinteticamente Ativa (RFA é importante para diferentes áreas relacionadas à fisiologia vegetal e ciências agrárias. Modelos de estimativa de RFA a partir da Radiação Global (Rg são extremamente úteis, visto que a Rg é convencionalmente medida nas estações meteorológicas. Assim, analisou-se a variabilidade sazonal da relação RFA/Rg em cinco áreas localizadas na bacia do rio Doce, Estado de Minas Gerais, considerando-se os períodos secos e chuvosos dos anos de 2001 a 2004. As relações RFA/Rg obtidas para os períodos secos e chuvosos, assim como para todos os dados, apresentaram concordância com as relações determinadas por diversos pesquisadores em diferentes áreas do mundo. Analisando-se os resultados, constatou-se que, de maneira geral,as relações RFA/Rg tendem a ser superiores durante os períodos chuvosos comparativamente aos secos. Por este estudo, pôde-se concluir que existe variação interanual desta relação, demonstrando assim a necessidade de se considerar esta variabilidade para estimaradequadamente a RFA a partir da Rg. The knowledge of the Photosynthetically Active Radiation (PAR is important to different areas of vegetal physiology and agricultural sciences. Estimation models of the PAR based on the Global Radiation (GR are extremely useful, since the GR is conventionally measured atthe meteorological stations. Thus, the seasonal variability of the relationship PAR/GR was analyzed in five areas located at the river Doce basin, Minas Gerais State, Brazil, considering the dry and wet periods of the years 2001 to 2004. The relationships PAR/GR obtained for the dry and wet periods, and also to all data, presented agreement with those ones determined by several researchers in different areas of the world. Results showed that the relationshipsPAR/GR generally tend to be greater during the wet periods when compared with the dry ones. By this work, it could be concluded that

  5. Timing of Seasonal Sales.

    OpenAIRE

    Courty, Pascal; Li, Hao

    1999-01-01

    We present a model of timing of seasonal sales where stores choose several designs at the beginning of the season without knowing wich one, if any, will be fashionable. Fashionable designs have a chance to fetch high prices in fashion markets while non-fashionable ones must be sold in a discount market. In the beginning of the season, stores charge high prices in the hope of capturing their fashion market. As the end of the season approaches with goods still on the shelves, stores adjust down...

  6. Instant MuseScore

    CERN Document Server

    Shinn, Maxwell

    2013-01-01

    Get to grips with a new technology, understand what it is and what it can do for you, and then get to work with the most important features and tasks. Instant MuseScore is written in an easy-to follow format, packed with illustrations that will help you get started with this music composition software.This book is for musicians who would like to learn how to notate music digitally with MuseScore. Readers should already have some knowledge about musical terminology; however, no prior experience with music notation software is necessary.

  7. Genome-wide analysis of positively selected genes in seasonal and non-seasonal breeding species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuhuan Meng

    Full Text Available Some mammals breed throughout the year, while others breed only at certain times of year. These differences in reproductive behavior can be explained by evolution. We identified positively-selected genes in two sets of species with different degrees of relatedness including seasonal and non-seasonal breeding species, using branch-site models. After stringent filtering by sum of pairs scoring, we revealed that more genes underwent positive selection in seasonal compared with non-seasonal breeding species. Positively-selected genes were verified by cDNA mapping of the positive sites with the corresponding cDNA sequences. The design of the evolutionary analysis can effectively lower the false-positive rate and thus identify valid positive genes. Validated, positively-selected genes, including CGA, DNAH1, INVS, and CD151, were related to reproductive behaviors such as spermatogenesis and cell proliferation in non-seasonal breeding species. Genes in seasonal breeding species, including THRAP3, TH1L, and CMTM6, may be related to the evolution of sperm and the circadian rhythm system. Identification of these positively-selected genes might help to identify the molecular mechanisms underlying seasonal and non-seasonal reproductive behaviors.

  8. The lod score method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rice, J P; Saccone, N L; Corbett, J

    2001-01-01

    The lod score method originated in a seminal article by Newton Morton in 1955. The method is broadly concerned with issues of power and the posterior probability of linkage, ensuring that a reported linkage has a high probability of being a true linkage. In addition, the method is sequential, so that pedigrees or lod curves may be combined from published reports to pool data for analysis. This approach has been remarkably successful for 50 years in identifying disease genes for Mendelian disorders. After discussing these issues, we consider the situation for complex disorders, where the maximum lod score (MLS) statistic shares some of the advantages of the traditional lod score approach but is limited by unknown power and the lack of sharing of the primary data needed to optimally combine analytic results. We may still learn from the lod score method as we explore new methods in molecular biology and genetic analysis to utilize the complete human DNA sequence and the cataloging of all human genes.

  9. The Bayesian Score Statistic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleibergen, F.R.; Kleijn, R.; Paap, R.

    2000-01-01

    We propose a novel Bayesian test under a (noninformative) Jeffreys'priorspecification. We check whether the fixed scalar value of the so-calledBayesian Score Statistic (BSS) under the null hypothesis is aplausiblerealization from its known and standardized distribution under thealternative. Unlike

  10. South African Scoring System

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2014-11-18

    Nov 18, 2014 ... for 80% (SASS score) and 75% (NOT) of the variation in the regression model. Consequently, SASS ... further investigation: spatial analyses of macroinvertebrate assemblages; and the use of structural and functional metrics. Keywords: .... conductivity levels was assessed using multiple linear regres- sion.

  11. Developing Scoring Algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    We developed scoring procedures to convert screener responses to estimates of individual dietary intake for fruits and vegetables, dairy, added sugars, whole grains, fiber, and calcium using the What We Eat in America 24-hour dietary recall data from the 2003-2006 NHANES.

  12. Seasonal Dynamics of Academic Achievement Inequality by Socioeconomic Status and Race/Ethnicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinn, David M.; Cooc, North; McIntyre, Joe; Gomez, Celia J.

    2016-01-01

    Early studies examining seasonal variation in academic achievement inequality generally concluded that socioeconomic test score gaps grew more over the summer than the school year, suggesting schools served as "equalizers." In this study, we analyze seasonal trends in socioeconomic status (SES) and racial/ethnic test score gaps using…

  13. Credit scoring methods

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Vojtek, Martin; Kočenda, Evžen

    2006-01-01

    Roč. 56, 3-4 (2006), s. 152-167 ISSN 0015-1920 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/05/0931 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : banking sector * credit scoring * discrimination analysis Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.190, year: 2006 http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1050_s_152_167.pdf

  14. Seasonality of absolute humidity explains seasonality of influenza-like illness in Vietnam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thai, Pham Quang; Choisy, Marc; Duong, Tran Nhu; Thiem, Vu Dinh; Yen, Nguyen Thu; Hien, Nguyen Tran; Weiss, Daniel J; Boni, Maciej F; Horby, Peter

    2015-12-01

    Experimental and ecological studies have shown the role of climatic factors in driving the epidemiology of influenza. In particular, low absolute humidity (AH) has been shown to increase influenza virus transmissibility and has been identified to explain the onset of epidemics in temperate regions. Here, we aim to study the potential climatic drivers of influenza-like illness (ILI) epidemiology in Vietnam, a tropical country characterized by a high diversity of climates. We specifically focus on quantifying and explaining the seasonality of ILI. We used 18 years (1993-2010) of monthly ILI notifications aggregated by province (52) and monthly climatic variables (minimum, mean, maximum temperatures, absolute and relative humidities, rainfall and hours of sunshine) from 67 weather stations across Vietnam. Seasonalities were quantified from global wavelet spectra, using the value of the power at the period of 1 year as a measure of the intensity of seasonality. The 7 climatic time series were characterized by 534 summary statistics which were entered into a regression tree to identify factors associated with the seasonality of AH. Results were extrapolated to the global scale using simulated climatic times series from the NCEP/NCAR project. The intensity of ILI seasonality in Vietnam is best explained by the intensity of AH seasonality. We find that ILI seasonality is weak in provinces experiencing weak seasonal fluctuations in AH (annual power power >17.6). In Vietnam, AH and ILI are positively correlated. Our results identify a role for AH in driving the epidemiology of ILI in a tropical setting. However, in contrast to temperate regions, high rather than low AH is associated with increased ILI activity. Fluctuation in AH may be the climate factor that underlies and unifies the seasonality of ILI in both temperate and tropical regions. Alternatively, the mechanism of action of AH on disease transmission may be different in cold-dry versus hot-humid settings

  15. Credit scoring for individuals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria DIMITRIU

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Lending money to different borrowers is profitable, but risky. The profits come from the interest rate and the fees earned on the loans. Banks do not want to make loans to borrowers who cannot repay them. Even if the banks do not intend to make bad loans, over time, some of them can become bad. For instance, as a result of the recent financial crisis, the capability of many borrowers to repay their loans were affected, many of them being on default. That’s why is important for the bank to monitor the loans. The purpose of this paper is to focus on credit scoring main issues. As a consequence of this, we presented in this paper the scoring model of an important Romanian Bank. Based on this credit scoring model and taking into account the last lending requirements of the National Bank of Romania, we developed an assessment tool, in Excel, for retail loans which is presented in the case study.

  16. Seasonality in the Austrian Economy: Common Seasonals and Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Kunst, Robert M.

    1992-01-01

    Abstract: Seasonal cointegration generalizes the idea of cointegration to processes with unit roots at frequencies different from 0. Here, also the dual notion of common trends, "common seasonals", is adopted for the seasonal case. Using a five-variable macroeconomic core system of the Austrian economy, it is demonstrated how common seasonals and seasonal cointegrating vectors look in practice. Statistical tests provide clear evidence on seasonal cointegration in the system. However, it is sh...

  17. Should seasonal rainfall forecasts be used for flood preparedness?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Coughlan de Perez

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available In light of strong encouragement for disaster managers to use climate services for flood preparation, we question whether seasonal rainfall forecasts should indeed be used as indicators of the likelihood of flooding. Here, we investigate the primary indicators of flooding at the seasonal timescale across sub-Saharan Africa. Given the sparsity of hydrological observations, we input bias-corrected reanalysis rainfall into the Global Flood Awareness System to identify seasonal indicators of floodiness. Results demonstrate that in some regions of western, central, and eastern Africa with typically wet climates, even a perfect tercile forecast of seasonal total rainfall would provide little to no indication of the seasonal likelihood of flooding. The number of extreme events within a season shows the highest correlations with floodiness consistently across regions. Otherwise, results vary across climate regimes: floodiness in arid regions in southern and eastern Africa shows the strongest correlations with seasonal average soil moisture and seasonal total rainfall. Floodiness in wetter climates of western and central Africa and Madagascar shows the strongest relationship with measures of the intensity of seasonal rainfall. Measures of rainfall patterns, such as the length of dry spells, are least related to seasonal floodiness across the continent. Ultimately, identifying the drivers of seasonal flooding can be used to improve forecast information for flood preparedness and to avoid misleading decision-makers.

  18. College Math Assessment: SAT Scores vs. College Math Placement Scores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foley-Peres, Kathleen; Poirier, Dawn

    2008-01-01

    Many colleges and university's use SAT math scores or math placement tests to place students in the appropriate math course. This study compares the use of math placement scores and SAT scores for 188 freshman students. The student's grades and faculty observations were analyzed to determine if the SAT scores and/or college math assessment scores…

  19. Seasonality of Suicidal Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woo, Jong-Min; Okusaga, Olaoluwa; Postolache, Teodor T.

    2012-01-01

    A seasonal suicide peak in spring is highly replicated, but its specific cause is unknown. We reviewed the literature on suicide risk factors which can be associated with seasonal variation of suicide rates, assessing published articles from 1979 to 2011. Such risk factors include environmental determinants, including physical, chemical, and biological factors. We also summarized the influence of potential demographic and clinical characteristics such as age, gender, month of birth, socioeconomic status, methods of prior suicide attempt, and comorbid psychiatric and medical diseases. Comprehensive evaluation of risk factors which could be linked to the seasonal variation in suicide is important, not only to identify the major driving force for the seasonality of suicide, but also could lead to better suicide prevention in general. PMID:22470308

  20. Seasonal Affective Disorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... than any non-seasonal depressions. Symptoms of Major Depression Feeling depressed most of the day, nearly every ... Bethesda, MD 20892-9663 Follow Us Facebook Twitter YouTube Google Plus NIMH Newsletter NIMH RSS Feed NIMH ...

  1. CCAA seasonal forecasting

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Integrating meteorological and indigenous knowledge-based seasonal climate forecasts in ..... Explanation is based on spiritual and social values. Taught by .... that provided medicine and food became the subject of strict rules and practices ...

  2. The International Bleeding Risk Score

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laursen, Stig Borbjerg; Laine, L.; Dalton, H.

    2017-01-01

    The International Bleeding Risk Score: A New Risk Score that can Accurately Predict Mortality in Patients with Upper GI-Bleeding.......The International Bleeding Risk Score: A New Risk Score that can Accurately Predict Mortality in Patients with Upper GI-Bleeding....

  3. Global patterns in seasonal activity of influenza A/H3N2, A/H1N1, and B from 1997 to 2005: viral coexistence and latitudinal gradients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian S Finkelman

    Full Text Available Despite a mass of research on the epidemiology of seasonal influenza, overall patterns of infection have not been fully described on broad geographic scales and for specific types and subtypes of the influenza virus. Here we provide a descriptive analysis of laboratory-confirmed influenza surveillance data by type and subtype (A/H3N2, A/H1N1, and B for 19 temperate countries in the Northern and Southern hemispheres from 1997 to 2005, compiled from a public database maintained by WHO (FluNet. Key findings include patterns of large scale co-occurrence of influenza type A and B, interhemispheric synchrony for subtype A/H3N2, and latitudinal gradients in epidemic timing for type A. These findings highlight the need for more countries to conduct year-round viral surveillance and report reliable incidence data at the type and subtype level, especially in the Tropics.

  4. Seasonal temperature extremes in Potsdam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kundzewicz, Zbigniew; Huang, Shaochun

    2010-12-01

    The awareness of global warming is well established and results from the observations made on thousands of stations. This paper complements the large-scale results by examining a long time-series of high-quality temperature data from the Secular Meteorological Station in Potsdam, where observation records over the last 117 years, i.e., from January 1893 are available. Tendencies of change in seasonal temperature-related climate extremes are demonstrated. "Cold" extremes have become less frequent and less severe than in the past, while "warm" extremes have become more frequent and more severe. Moreover, the interval of the occurrence of frost has been decreasing, while the interval of the occurrence of hot days has been increasing. However, many changes are not statistically significant, since the variability of temperature indices at the Potsdam station has been very strong.

  5. A comparison of methods to quantify the in-season training load of professional soccer players.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Brendan R; Lockie, Robert G; Knight, Timothy J; Clark, Andrew C; Janse de Jonge, Xanne A K

    2013-03-01

    To compare various measures of training load (TL) derived from physiological (heart rate [HR]), perceptual (rating of perceived exertion [RPE]), and physical (global positioning system [GPS] and accelerometer) data during in-season field-based training for professional soccer. Fifteen professional male soccer players (age 24.9 ± 5.4 y, body mass 77.6 ± 7.5 kg, height 181.1 ± 6.9 cm) were assessed in-season across 97 individual training sessions. Measures of external TL (total distance [TD], the volume of low-speed activity [LSA; 14.4 km/h], very high-speed running [VHSR; >19.8 km/h], and player load), HR and session-RPE (sRPE) scores were recorded. Internal TL scores (HR-based and sRPE-based) were calculated, and their relationships with measures of external TL were quantified using Pearson product-moment correlations. Physical measures of TD, LSA volume, and player load provided large, significant (r = .71-.84; P physical-performance measures of TD, LSA volume, and player load appear to be more acceptable indicators of external TL, due to the greater magnitude of their correlations with measures of internal TL.

  6. Epidemiology, Seasonality and Factors Associated with Rotavirus Infection among Children with Moderate-to-Severe Diarrhea in Rural Western Kenya, 2008–2012: The Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omore, Richard; Tate, Jacqueline E.; O’Reilly, Ciara E.; Ayers, Tracy; Williamson, John; Moke, Feny; Schilling, Katie A.; Awuor, Alex O.; Jaron, Peter; Ochieng, John B.; Oundo, Joseph; Parashar, Umesh D.; Parsons, Michele B.; Bopp, Cheryl C.; Nasrin, Dilruba; Farag, Tamer H.; Kotloff, Karen L.; Nataro, James P.; Panchalingam, Sandra; Levine, Myron M.; Laserson, Kayla F.; Nuorti, J. Pekka; Mintz, Eric D.; Breiman, Robert F.

    2016-01-01

    Objective To evaluate factors associated with rotavirus diarrhea and to describe severity of illness among children Rotavirus antigens in stool samples were detected by ELISA. Demographic and clinical information was collected at enrollment and during a single follow-up home visit at approximately 60 days. We analyzed diarrhea severity using a GEMS 17 point numerical scoring system adapted from the Vesikari score. We used logistic regression to evaluate factors associated with rotavirus infection. Results From January 31, 2008 to September 30, 2012, among 1,637 (92%) non-dysenteric MSD cases, rotavirus was detected in stools of 245 (15.0%). Rotavirus-positive compared with negative cases were: younger (median age, 8 vs. 13 months; protavirus infection included age 0–11 months old (aOR = 5.29, 95% CI 3.14–8.89) and presenting with vomiting ≥3 times/24hrs (aOR = 2.58, 95% CI [1.91–3.48]). Rotavirus was detected more commonly in warm and dry months than in the cool and rainy months (142/691 [20%] vs 70/673 [10%]) protavirus is associated with severe symptoms leading to hospitalization. Consistent with other settings, infants had the greatest burden of disease. PMID:27494517

  7. Cold season emissions dominate the Arctic tundra methane budget

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zona, Donatella; Gioli, Beniamino; Commane, Róisín; Lindaas, Jakob; Wofsy, Steven C.; Miller, Charles E.; Dinardo, Steven J.; Dengel, Sigrid; Sweeney, Colm; Karion, Anna; Chang, Rachel Y.-W.; Henderson, John M.; Murphy, Patrick C.; Goodrich, Jordan P.; Moreaux, Virginie; Liljedahl, Anna; Watts, Jennifer D.; Kimball, John S.; Lipson, David A.; Oechel, Walter C.

    2016-01-01

    Arctic terrestrial ecosystems are major global sources of methane (CH4); hence, it is important to understand the seasonal and climatic controls on CH4 emissions from these systems. Here, we report year-round CH4 emissions from Alaskan Arctic tundra eddy flux sites and regional fluxes derived from aircraft data. We find that emissions during the cold season (September to May) account for ≥50% of the annual CH4 flux, with the highest emissions from noninundated upland tundra. A major fraction of cold season emissions occur during the "zero curtain" period, when subsurface soil temperatures are poised near 0 °C. The zero curtain may persist longer than the growing season, and CH4 emissions are enhanced when the duration is extended by a deep thawed layer as can occur with thick snow cover. Regional scale fluxes of CH4 derived from aircraft data demonstrate the large spatial extent of late season CH4 emissions. Scaled to the circumpolar Arctic, cold season fluxes from tundra total 12 ± 5 (95% confidence interval) Tg CH4 y-1, ∼25% of global emissions from extratropical wetlands, or ∼6% of total global wetland methane emissions. The dominance of late-season emissions, sensitivity to soil environmental conditions, and importance of dry tundra are not currently simulated in most global climate models. Because Arctic warming disproportionally impacts the cold season, our results suggest that higher cold-season CH4 emissions will result from observed and predicted increases in snow thickness, active layer depth, and soil temperature, representing important positive feedbacks on climate warming.

  8. Seasonal Influenza: An Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Christina; Freedman, Marian

    2009-01-01

    Seasonal influenza is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the United States. It also has major social and economic consequences in the form of high rates of absenteeism from school and work as well as significant treatment and hospitalization costs. In fact, annual influenza epidemics and the resulting deaths and lost days of productivity…

  9. Seasonal atmospheric extinction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mikhail, J.S.

    1979-01-01

    Mean monochromatic extinction coefficients at various wavelengths at the Kottamia Observatory site have shown the existence of a seasonal variation of atmospheric extinction. The extinction of aerosol compontnts with wavelengths at winter represent exceedingly good conditions. Spring gives the highest extinction due to aerosol. (orig.)

  10. Seasonality of Rural Finance

    OpenAIRE

    Khandker, Shahidur R.; Samad, Hussain A.; Badruddoza, Syed

    2017-01-01

    Simultaneity of borrowing, withdrawal of savings, and loan defaults due to the pronounced seasonality of agriculture often leads to investment failure of rural financial institutions. Lack of borrowing leads to lack of in-come- and consumption-smoothing, and in turn, causes inefficient resource allocation by rural households. Financial institutions that are active in rural areas take diffe...

  11. The Hungry Season

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    start to go some way towards addressing this fundamental question. A delightful animation of The Hungry Season, commissioned by Leonie Joubert and funded by the University of Cape Town's Criminology. Department and the Embassy of Finland, is available online at http://www.youtube.com/ watch?v=iX77NZttLKo.

  12. Antiviral Drugs: Seasonal Flu

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2010-09-29

    In this podcast, Dr. Joe Bresee explains the nature of antiviral drugs and how they are used for seasonal flu.  Created: 9/29/2010 by National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (NCIRD).   Date Released: 9/29/2010.

  13. Warning Signs: Seasonal Flu

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2010-09-29

    In this podcast, Dr. Joe Bresee describes the main symptoms of seasonal flu and when it is serious enough to seek medical help.  Created: 9/29/2010 by National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (NCIRD).   Date Released: 9/29/2010.

  14. Take Three: Seasonal Flu

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2010-09-29

    In this podcast, Dr. Joe Bresee describes how to keep from getting seasonal flu and spreading it to others by taking these three steps.  Created: 9/29/2010 by National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (NCIRD).   Date Released: 9/29/2010.

  15. Do Test Scores Buy Happiness?

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCluskey, Neal

    2017-01-01

    Since at least the enactment of No Child Left Behind in 2002, standardized test scores have served as the primary measures of public school effectiveness. Yet, such scores fail to measure the ultimate goal of education: maximizing happiness. This exploratory analysis assesses nation level associations between test scores and happiness, controlling…

  16. Predicting occupational personality test scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furnham, A; Drakeley, R

    2000-01-01

    The relationship between students' actual test scores and their self-estimated scores on the Hogan Personality Inventory (HPI; R. Hogan & J. Hogan, 1992), an omnibus personality questionnaire, was examined. Despite being given descriptive statistics and explanations of each of the dimensions measured, the students tended to overestimate their scores; yet all correlations between actual and estimated scores were positive and significant. Correlations between self-estimates and actual test scores were highest for sociability, ambition, and adjustment (r = .62 to r = .67). The results are discussed in terms of employers' use and abuse of personality assessment for job recruitment.

  17. Bayesian analyses of seasonal runoff forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krzysztofowicz, R.; Reese, S.

    1991-12-01

    Forecasts of seasonal snowmelt runoff volume provide indispensable information for rational decision making by water project operators, irrigation district managers, and farmers in the western United States. Bayesian statistical models and communication frames have been researched in order to enhance the forecast information disseminated to the users, and to characterize forecast skill from the decision maker's point of view. Four products are presented: (i) a Bayesian Processor of Forecasts, which provides a statistical filter for calibrating the forecasts, and a procedure for estimating the posterior probability distribution of the seasonal runoff; (ii) the Bayesian Correlation Score, a new measure of forecast skill, which is related monotonically to the ex ante economic value of forecasts for decision making; (iii) a statistical predictor of monthly cumulative runoffs within the snowmelt season, conditional on the total seasonal runoff forecast; and (iv) a framing of the forecast message that conveys the uncertainty associated with the forecast estimates to the users. All analyses are illustrated with numerical examples of forecasts for six gauging stations from the period 1971 1988.

  18. Evaluation of Real-Time Convection-Permitting Precipitation Forecasts in China During the 2013-2014 Summer Season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Kefeng; Xue, Ming; Zhou, Bowen; Zhao, Kun; Sun, Zhengqi; Fu, Peiling; Zheng, Yongguang; Zhang, Xiaoling; Meng, Qingtao

    2018-01-01

    Forecasts at a 4 km convection-permitting resolution over China during the summer season have been produced with the Weather Research and Forecasting model at Nanjing University since 2013. Precipitation forecasts from 2013 to 2014 are evaluated with dense rain gauge observations and compared with operational global model forecasts. Overall, the 4 km forecasts show very good agreement with observations over most parts of China, outperforming global forecasts in terms of spatial distribution, intensity, and diurnal variation. Quantitative evaluations with the Gilbert skill score further confirm the better performance of the 4 km forecasts over global forecasts for heavy precipitation, especially for the thresholds of 100 and 150 mm d-1. Besides bulk characteristics, the representations of some unique features of summer precipitation in China under the influence of the East Asian summer monsoon are further evaluated. These include the northward progression and southward retreat of the main rainband through the summer season, the diurnal variations of precipitation, and the meridional and zonal propagation of precipitation episodes associated with background synoptic flow and the embedded mesoscale convective systems. The 4 km forecast is able to faithfully reproduce most of the features while overprediction of afternoon convection near the southern China coast is found to be a main deficiency that requires further investigations.

  19. Differences of wells scores accuracy, caprini scores and padua scores in deep vein thrombosis diagnosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gatot, D.; Mardia, A. I.

    2018-03-01

    Deep Vein Thrombosis (DVT) is the venous thrombus in lower limbs. Diagnosis is by using venography or ultrasound compression. However, these examinations are not available yet in some health facilities. Therefore many scoring systems are developed for the diagnosis of DVT. The scoring method is practical and safe to use in addition to efficacy, and effectiveness in terms of treatment and costs. The existing scoring systems are wells, caprini and padua score. There have been many studies comparing the accuracy of this score but not in Medan. Therefore, we are interested in comparative research of wells, capriniand padua score in Medan.An observational, analytical, case-control study was conducted to perform diagnostic tests on the wells, caprini and padua score to predict the risk of DVT. The study was at H. Adam Malik Hospital in Medan.From a total of 72 subjects, 39 people (54.2%) are men and the mean age are 53.14 years. Wells score, caprini score and padua score has a sensitivity of 80.6%; 61.1%, 50% respectively; specificity of 80.65; 66.7%; 75% respectively, and accuracy of 87.5%; 64.3%; 65.7% respectively.Wells score has better sensitivity, specificity and accuracy than caprini and padua score in diagnosing DVT.

  20. Seasonal hydroclimatic impacts of Sun Corridor expansion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Georgescu, M; Mahalov, A; Moustaoui, M

    2012-01-01

    Conversion of natural to urban land forms imparts influence on local and regional hydroclimate via modification of the surface energy and water balance, and consideration of such effects due to rapidly expanding megapolitan areas is necessary in light of the growing global share of urban inhabitants. Based on a suite of ensemble-based, multi-year simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, we quantify seasonally varying hydroclimatic impacts of the most rapidly expanding megapolitan area in the US: Arizona’s Sun Corridor, centered upon the Greater Phoenix metropolitan area. Using a scenario-based urban expansion approach that accounts for the full range of Sun Corridor growth uncertainty through 2050, we show that built environment induced warming for the maximum development scenario is greatest during the summer season (regionally averaged warming over AZ exceeds 1 °C). Warming remains significant during the spring and fall seasons (regionally averaged warming over AZ approaches 0.9 °C during both seasons), and is least during the winter season (regionally averaged warming over AZ of 0.5 °C). Impacts from a minimum expansion scenario are reduced, with regionally averaged warming ranging between 0.1 and 0.3 °C for all seasons except winter, when no warming impacts are diagnosed. Integration of highly reflective cool roofs within the built environment, increasingly recognized as a cost-effective option intended to offset the warming influence of urban complexes, reduces urban-induced warming considerably. However, impacts on the hydrologic cycle are aggravated via enhanced evapotranspiration reduction, leading to a 4% total accumulated precipitation decrease relative to the non-adaptive maximum expansion scenario. Our results highlight potentially unintended consequences of this adaptation approach within rapidly expanding megapolitan areas, and emphasize the need for undeniably sustainable development paths that account for

  1. Potential for western US seasonal snowpack prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kapnick, Sarah B.; Yang, Xiaosong; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Delworth, Thomas L.; Gudgel, Rich; Malyshev, Sergey; Milly, Paul C. D.; Shevliakova, Elena; Underwood, Seth; Margulis, Steven A.

    2018-01-01

    Western US snowpack—snow that accumulates on the ground in the mountains—plays a critical role in regional hydroclimate and water supply, with 80% of snowmelt runoff being used for agriculture. While climate projections provide estimates of snowpack loss by the end of th ecentury and weather forecasts provide predictions of weather conditions out to 2 weeks, less progress has been made for snow predictions at seasonal timescales (months to 2 years), crucial for regional agricultural decisions (e.g., plant choice and quantity). Seasonal predictions with climate models first took the form of El Niño predictions 3 decades ago, with hydroclimate predictions emerging more recently. While the field has been focused on single-season predictions (3 months or less), we are now poised to advance our predictions beyond this timeframe. Utilizing observations, climate indices, and a suite of global climate models, we demonstrate the feasibility of seasonal snowpack predictions and quantify the limits of predictive skill 8 month sin advance. This physically based dynamic system outperforms observation-based statistical predictions made on July 1 for March snowpack everywhere except the southern Sierra Nevada, a region where prediction skill is nonexistent for every predictor presently tested. Additionally, in the absence of externally forced negative trends in snowpack, narrow maritime mountain ranges with high hydroclimate variability pose a challenge for seasonal prediction in our present system; natural snowpack variability may inherently be unpredictable at this timescale. This work highlights present prediction system successes and gives cause for optimism for developing seasonal predictions for societal needs.

  2. Vaccination against seasonal flu

    CERN Multimedia

    2015-01-01

    The Medical Service once again recommends you to get your annual flu vaccination for the year.   Vaccination is the most effective way of avoiding the illness and any serious consequences and protecting those around you. The flu can have especially serious consequences for people with chronic conditions (diabetes, cardio-vascular disease, etc.), pregnant women, infants, and people over 65 years of age. Remember, anyone working on the CERN site who wishes to be vaccinated against seasonal flu should go to the Infirmary (Building 57, ground floor) with their vaccine. The Medical Service will issue a prescription on the day of the vaccination for the purposes of reimbursement by UNIQA. NB: The Medical Service cannot provide this vaccination service for family members or retired members of the personnel. For more information: • The "Seasonal flu" flyer by the Medical Service • Recommendations of the Swiss Federal Office of Public...

  3. Vaccination against seasonal influenza

    CERN Multimedia

    DG Unit

    2009-01-01

    As every year, the Medical Service is taking part in the campaign to promote vaccination against seasonal influenza. Vaccination against seasonal influenza is especially recommended for people suffering from chronic lung, cardio-vascular or kidney conditions or diabetes, for those recovering from a serious illness or surgical operation and for everyone over the age of 65. The influenza virus is transmitted by air and contact with contaminated surfaces, hence the importance of washing hands regularly with soap and / or disinfection using a hydro-alcoholic solution. From the onset of symptoms (fever> 38°, chills, cough, muscle aches and / or joint pain, fatigue) you are strongly recommended to stay at home to avoid spreading the virus. In the present context of the influenza A (H1N1) pandemic, it is important to dissociate these two illnesses and emphasise that the two viruses and the vaccines used to combat them are quite different and that protection against one will not pr...

  4. Seasonality constraints to livestock grazing intensity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fetzel, Tamara; Havlik, Petr; Herrero, Mario; Erb, Karl-Heinz

    2017-04-01

    Increasing food production is essential to meet the future food demand of a growing world population. In light of pressing sustainability challenges such as climate change and the importance of the global livestock system for food security as well as GHG emissions, finding ways to increasing food production sustainably and without increasing competition for food crops is essential. Yet, many unknowns relate to livestock grazing, in particular grazing intensity, an essential variable to assess the sustainability of livestock systems. Here, we explore ecological limits to grazing intensity (GI; i.e. the fraction of net primary production consumed by grazing animals) by analysing the role of seasonality in natural grasslands. We estimate seasonal limitations to GI by combining monthly net primary production data and a map of global livestock distribution with assumptions on the length of nonfavourable periods that can be bridged by livestock (e.g. by browsing dead standing biomass, storage systems or biomass conservation). This allows us to derive a seasonality-limited potential GI, which we compare with the GI prevailing in 2000. We find that GI in 2000 lies below its potential on 39% of the total global natural grasslands, which has a potential for increasing biomass extraction of up to 181 MtC/yr. In contrast, on 61% of the area GI exceeds the potential, made possible by management. Mobilizing this potential could increase milk production by 5%, meat production by 4% or contribute to free up to 2.8 Mio km² of grassland area at the global scale if the numerous socio-ecological constraints can be overcome. We discuss socio-ecological trade-offs, which may reduce the estimated potential considerably and require the establishment of sound monitoring systems and an improved understanding of livestock system's role in the Earth system. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Global Distribution of Marine Radioactivity. Chapter 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zal U'yun Wan Mahmood; Abdul Kadir Ishak; Norfaizal Mohamad; Wo, Y.M.; Kamarudin Samuding

    2015-01-01

    The global distribution of radionuclide activity in marine environments are totally different for each regions. This is because the sources for the supply, space, time, season, nature (physical, chemical and geochemical) and the nature of ocean physical (waves) differentiates it.

  6. Summer season | Cafeteria closures

    CERN Multimedia

    2013-01-01

    Please note the following cafeteria closures over the summer season: Bldg. 54 closed from 29/07/2013 to 06/09/2013. Bldg. 13: closed from 13/07/2013 to 06/09/2013. Restaurant No. 2, table service (brasserie and restaurant): closed from 01/08/2013 to 06/09/2013. Bldg. 864: closed from 29/07/2013 to 06/09/2013. Bldg. 865: closed from 29/07/2013 to 06/09/2013.

  7. Nursing Activities Score and Acute Kidney Injury

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filipe Utuari de Andrade Coelho

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective: to evaluate the nursing workload in intensive care patients with acute kidney injury (AKI. Method: A quantitative study, conducted in an intensive care unit, from April to August of 2015. The Nursing Activities Score (NAS and Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO were used to measure nursing workload and to classify the stage of AKI, respectively. Results: A total of 190 patients were included. Patients who developed AKI (44.2% had higher NAS when compared to those without AKI (43.7% vs 40.7%, p <0.001. Patients with stage 1, 2 and 3 AKI showed higher NAS than those without AKI. A relationship was identified between stage 2 and 3 with those without AKI (p = 0.002 and p <0.001. Conclusion: The NAS was associated with the presence of AKI, the score increased with the progression of the stages, and it was associated with AKI, stage 2 and 3.

  8. Direct contamination - seasonality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aarkrog, A.

    1994-01-01

    Direct contamination is the primary pathway to terrestrial vegetation in the first period after an activity release to the atmosphere. All radionuclides are able to be transferred via this pathway. Deposition, interception and retention are the three processes involved in direct contamination of crops. Wet deposition is more important than dry deposition in temperature regions. Resuspension and rainsplash both belong to secondary direct deposition and became evident for e.g. radiocaesium after the Chernobyl accident. Seasonality is the varying response to radioactive contamination of crops according to the time of the year when the contamination occurs. Shortlived radionuclides (as 131 I) and those that mainly enter the foodchain by direct contamination (e.g. 137 Cs) are especially important in this connection. In particular, the contamination of cereal crops is influenced by seasonality. As a result of seasonality the impact of the Chernobyl accident on the radioactive contamination of human diet was for the same deposition density higher in southern than in northern Europe. (orig.)

  9. Vaccination against seasonal influenza

    CERN Multimedia

    GS Department

    2010-01-01

    This year, as usual, the Medical Service is helping to promote vaccination against seasonal influenza. Vaccination against seasonal flu is especially recommended for anyone who suffers from chronic pulmonary, cardio-vascular or kidney disease or diabetes, is recovering from a serious illness or major surgery, or is over 65 years of age. The flu virus is transmitted through the air and through contact with contaminated surfaces, so frequent hand-washing with soap and/or an antiseptic hand wash is of great importance. As soon as the first symptoms appear (fever above 38°, shivering, coughing, muscle and/or joint pains, generalised weakness), you are strongly recommended to stay at home to avoid spreading the virus. Anyone working on the CERN site who wishes to be vaccinated against seasonal flu should go to the Infirmary (Building 57, ground floor), with their dose of vaccine. The Medical Service will issue a prescription on the day of the vaccination for the purposes of reimbursement through UNIQA...

  10. Flublok Seasonal Influenza (Flu) Vaccination

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... type="submit" value="Submit" /> Archived Flu Emails Influenza Types Seasonal Avian Swine Variant Pandemic Other Flublok Seasonal Influenza (Flu) Vaccine Questions & Answers Language: English (US) Español ...

  11. Seasonally asymmetric enhancement of northern vegetation productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, T.; Myneni, R.

    2017-12-01

    Multiple evidences of widespread greening and increasing terrestrial carbon uptake have been documented. In particular, enhanced gross productivity of northern vegetation has been a critical role leading to observed carbon uptake trend. However, seasonal photosynthetic activity and its contribution to observed annual carbon uptake trend and interannual variability are not well understood. Here, we introduce a multiple-source of datasets including ground, atmospheric and satellite observations, and multiple process-based global vegetation models to understand how seasonal variation of land surface vegetation controls a large-scale carbon exchange. Our analysis clearly shows a seasonally asymmetric enhancement of northern vegetation productivity in growing season during last decades. Particularly, increasing gross productivity in late spring and early summer is obvious and dominant driver explaining observed trend and variability. We observe more asymmetric productivity enhancement in warmer region and this spatially varying asymmetricity in northern vegetation are likely explained by canopy development rate, thermal and light availability. These results imply that continued warming may facilitate amplifying asymmetric vegetation activity and cause these trends to become more pervasive, in turn warming induced regime shift in northern land.

  12. [Propensity score matching in SPSS].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Fuqiang; DU, Chunlin; Sun, Menghui; Ning, Bing; Luo, Ying; An, Shengli

    2015-11-01

    To realize propensity score matching in PS Matching module of SPSS and interpret the analysis results. The R software and plug-in that could link with the corresponding versions of SPSS and propensity score matching package were installed. A PS matching module was added in the SPSS interface, and its use was demonstrated with test data. Score estimation and nearest neighbor matching was achieved with the PS matching module, and the results of qualitative and quantitative statistical description and evaluation were presented in the form of a graph matching. Propensity score matching can be accomplished conveniently using SPSS software.

  13. NEW SEASON NEW HOPES: OFF-SEASON OPTIMISM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oguz Ersan

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available While literature on the relation between on-field sports performance and stock returns is ample, there is very limited evidence on off-season stage. Constituting around 3 months, off-seasons do not only occupy a significant part of the year but also represent totally different characteristics than on-seasons. They lack the periodic, unambiguous news events in on-seasons (match results, instead they are associated with highly uncertain transfer news and rumors. We show that this distinction has several impacts on the stock market performances of soccer clubs. Most notably, off-seasons generate substantially higher (excess returns. After controlling for other variables, the estimated effect of off-season periods is as high as 38.75%, annually. In line with several seminal studies, we link this fact to increased optimism and betting behavior through uncertain periods; and periods prior to the start of a new calendar (in our case, new season. For all of the examined 7 clubs (3 from Italy and 4 from Turkey, mean excess returns over the market are positive (negative in off-seasons (on-seasons. On-seasons are associated with increased trading activity due to more frequent news. Stocks of Italian clubs are evidently more volatile through off-seasons while volatility results for the stocks of Turkish clubs are not consistent.

  14. The Predictability of Dry-Season Precipitation in Tropical West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knippertz, P.; Davis, J.; Fink, A. H.

    2012-04-01

    Precipitation during the boreal winter dry season in tropical West Africa is rare but occasionally connected to high-impacts for the local population. Previous work has shown that these events are usually connected to a trough over northwestern Africa, an extensive cloud plume on its eastern side, unusual precipitation at the northern and western fringes of the Sahara, and reduced surface pressure over the southern Sahara and Sahel, which allows an inflow of moist southerlies from the Gulf of Guinea to feed the unusual dry-season rainfalls. These results also suggest that the extratropical influence enhances the predictability of these events on the synoptic timescale. Here we further investigate this question for the 11 dry seasons (November-March) 1998/99-2008/09 using rainfall estimates from TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) and GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project), and operational ensemble predictions from the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts (ECMWF). All fields are averaged over the study area 7.5-15°N, 10°W-10°E that spans most of southern West Africa. For each 0000 UTC analysis time, the daily precipitation estimates are accumulated to pentads and compared with 120-hour predictions starting at the same time. Compared to TRMM, the ensemble mean shows a weak positive bias, whereas there is a substantial negative bias with regard to GPCP. Temporal correlations reach a high value of 0.8 for both datasets, showing similar synoptic variability despite the differences in total amount. Standard probabilistic evaluation methods such as relative operating characteristic (ROC) diagrams indicate remarkably good reliability, resolution and skill, particularly for lower precipitation thresholds. Not surprisingly, forecasts cluster at low probabilities for higher thresholds, but the reliability and ROC score are still reasonably high. The results show that global ensemble prediction systems are capable to predict dry-season rainfall events

  15. The Jump Training Program. In Season Conditioning for Women's Basketball.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannam, Sue; And Others

    1988-01-01

    Women athletes have been successful in maintaining and/or increasing their conditioning and vertical jump levels when they participate in the in-season circuit training program described in this article. An exercise guide, sample individual score card, and photos of women practicing the exercises are included. (IAH)

  16. In-season monitoring of hip and groin strength, health and function in elite youth soccer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wollin, Martin; Thorborg, Kristian; Welvaert, Marijke

    2018-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: The primary purpose of this study was to describe an early detection and management strategy when monitoring in-season hip and groin strength, health and function in soccer. Secondly to compare pre-season to in-season test results. DESIGN: Longitudinal cohort study. METHODS: Twenty......-seven elite male youth soccer players (age: 15.07±0.73years) volunteered to participate in the study. Monitoring tests included: adductor strength, adductor/abductor strength ratio and hip and groin outcome scores (HAGOS). Data were recorded at pre-season and at 22 monthly intervals in-season. Thresholds.......09, CI95%: 0.04, 0.13 respectively). HAGOS subscale scores were lowest at baseline with all, except Physical Activity, showing significant improvements at time-point one (ptime-loss were classified minimal or mild. CONCLUSIONS: In-season monitoring aimed at early detection...

  17. Literature in focus: How to Score

    CERN Document Server

    2006-01-01

    What is the perfect way to take a free kick? Which players are under more stress: attackers, midfielders or defenders? How do we know when a ball has crossed the goal-line? And how can teams win a penalty shoot out? From international team formations to the psychology of the pitch and the changing room... The World Cup might be a time to forget about physics for a while, but not for Ken Bray, a theoretical physicist and visiting Fellow of the Sport and Exercise Science Group at the University of Bath who specializes in the science of football. Dr Bray will visit CERN to talk exclusively about his book: How to Score. As a well-seasoned speaker and advisor to professional football teams, this presentation promises to be a fascinating and timely insight into the secret science that lies behind 'the beautiful game'. If you play or just watch football, don't miss this event! Ken Bray - How to Score Thursday 22 June at 3 p.m. (earlier than usual to avoid clashes with World Cup matches!) Central Library reading ...

  18. D-score: a search engine independent MD-score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaudel, Marc; Breiter, Daniela; Beck, Florian; Rahnenführer, Jörg; Martens, Lennart; Zahedi, René P

    2013-03-01

    While peptides carrying PTMs are routinely identified in gel-free MS, the localization of the PTMs onto the peptide sequences remains challenging. Search engine scores of secondary peptide matches have been used in different approaches in order to infer the quality of site inference, by penalizing the localization whenever the search engine similarly scored two candidate peptides with different site assignments. In the present work, we show how the estimation of posterior error probabilities for peptide candidates allows the estimation of a PTM score called the D-score, for multiple search engine studies. We demonstrate the applicability of this score to three popular search engines: Mascot, OMSSA, and X!Tandem, and evaluate its performance using an already published high resolution data set of synthetic phosphopeptides. For those peptides with phosphorylation site inference uncertainty, the number of spectrum matches with correctly localized phosphorylation increased by up to 25.7% when compared to using Mascot alone, although the actual increase depended on the fragmentation method used. Since this method relies only on search engine scores, it can be readily applied to the scoring of the localization of virtually any modification at no additional experimental or in silico cost. © 2013 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  19. Trends in Classroom Observation Scores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casabianca, Jodi M.; Lockwood, J. R.; McCaffrey, Daniel F.

    2015-01-01

    Observations and ratings of classroom teaching and interactions collected over time are susceptible to trends in both the quality of instruction and rater behavior. These trends have potential implications for inferences about teaching and for study design. We use scores on the Classroom Assessment Scoring System-Secondary (CLASS-S) protocol from…

  20. Quadratic prediction of factor scores

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wansbeek, T

    1999-01-01

    Factor scores are naturally predicted by means of their conditional expectation given the indicators y. Under normality this expectation is linear in y but in general it is an unknown function of y. II is discussed that under nonnormality factor scores can be more precisely predicted by a quadratic

  1. The Machine Scoring of Writing

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCurry, Doug

    2010-01-01

    This article provides an introduction to the kind of computer software that is used to score student writing in some high stakes testing programs, and that is being promoted as a teaching and learning tool to schools. It sketches the state of play with machines for the scoring of writing, and describes how these machines work and what they do.…

  2. Matching score based face recognition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boom, B.J.; Beumer, G.M.; Spreeuwers, Lieuwe Jan; Veldhuis, Raymond N.J.

    2006-01-01

    Accurate face registration is of vital importance to the performance of a face recognition algorithm. We propose a new method: matching score based face registration, which searches for optimal alignment by maximizing the matching score output of a classifier as a function of the different

  3. Modelling sequentially scored item responses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Akkermans, W.

    2000-01-01

    The sequential model can be used to describe the variable resulting from a sequential scoring process. In this paper two more item response models are investigated with respect to their suitability for sequential scoring: the partial credit model and the graded response model. The investigation is

  4. A Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Techniques for Credit Scoring

    OpenAIRE

    Nwulu, Nnamdi; Oroja, Shola; İlkan, Mustafa

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Credit Scoring has become an oft researched topic in light of the increasing volatility of the global economy and the recent world financial crisis. Amidst the many methods used for credit scoring, machine learning techniques are becoming increasingly popular due to their efficient and accurate nature and relative simplicity. Furthermore machine learning techniques minimize the risk of human bias and error and maximize speed as they are able to perform computation...

  5. Benefits of seasonal forecasts of crop yields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakurai, G.; Okada, M.; Nishimori, M.; Yokozawa, M.

    2017-12-01

    Major factors behind recent fluctuations in food prices include increased biofuel production and oil price fluctuations. In addition, several extreme climate events that reduced worldwide food production coincided with upward spikes in food prices. The stabilization of crop yields is one of the most important tasks to stabilize food prices and thereby enhance food security. Recent development of technologies related to crop modeling and seasonal weather forecasting has made it possible to forecast future crop yields for maize and soybean. However, the effective use of these technologies remains limited. Here we present the potential benefits of seasonal crop-yield forecasts on a global scale for choice of planting day. For this purpose, we used a model (PRYSBI-2) that can well replicate past crop yields both for maize and soybean. This model system uses a Bayesian statistical approach to estimate the parameters of a basic process-based model of crop growth. The spatial variability of model parameters was considered by estimating the posterior distribution of the parameters from historical yield data by using the Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method with a resolution of 1.125° × 1.125°. The posterior distributions of model parameters were estimated for each spatial grid with 30 000 MCMC steps of 10 chains each. By using this model and the estimated parameter distributions, we were able to estimate not only crop yield but also levels of associated uncertainty. We found that the global average crop yield increased about 30% as the result of the optimal selection of planting day and that the seasonal forecast of crop yield had a large benefit in and near the eastern part of Brazil and India for maize and the northern area of China for soybean. In these countries, the effects of El Niño and Indian Ocean dipole are large. The results highlight the importance of developing a system to forecast global crop yields.

  6. Music season coming soon

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN Bulletin in collaboration with Julio Rosenfeld

    2012-01-01

    On 16 June, CERN’s music season will open with Music on the Lawn. The event is the CERN Music Club’s contribution to the Fete de la Musique and will take place on the terrace of Restaurant 1 from 2 p.m. to 8 p.m. The Hardronic Festival, CERN’s long-running rock festival, will be held on the evenings of 20 and 21 July in Prévessin, on the terrace behind Restaurant 3. If you would like to help with the organisation, please contact the Music Club by e-mail: music.club@cern.ch.   The Canettes Blues Band during the 2011 Hardronic Festival. (© Christoph Balle, 2010). Summer is coming, and along with it comes the music season. CERN will be hosting its two annual rock music concerts: Music on the Lawn and the Hardronic Festival. The two events are organised by the CERN Music Club, which has been sharing the enjoyment of good music with its numerous fans for many years. “Music on the Lawn was originally created so that the members of the Mus...

  7. Flu season and trehalose

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robbins RA

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Most of us who are practicing medicine know that we are in a very active flu season. This was brought home to me when last week trying to admit a patient to the hospital from the office. She was a bone marrow transplant patient who had severe diarrhea and dehydration probably secondary to C. difficile. Hospital admissions said the patient had to be sent to the Emergency Room because the hospital was full due to the flu epidemic. Nationwide there has been a dramatic increase in the number of hospitalizations due to influenza over the past week from 13.7 to 22.7 per 100,000 (1. Influenza A(H3N2 has been the most common form of influenza reported this season. These viruses are often linked to more severe illness, especially in children and people age 65 years and older. Fortunately, the CDC also says that the flu cases may be peaking. However, at ...

  8. Vaccination against seasonal influenza

    CERN Multimedia

    SC Unit

    2009-01-01

    As every year, the Medical Service is taking part in the campaign to promote vaccination against seasonal influenza. Vaccination against seasonal influenza is especially recommended for people suffering from chronic lung, cardio-vascular or kidney conditions or diabetes, for those recovering from a serious illness or surgical operation and for everyone over the age of 65. The influenza virus is transmitted by air and contact with contaminated surfaces, hence the importance of washing hands regularly with soap and / or disinfection using a hydro-alcoholic solution. From the onset of symptoms (fever> 38°, chills, cough, muscle aches and / or joint pain, fatigue) you are strongly recommended to stay at home to avoid spreading the virus. In the present context of the influenza A (H1N1) pandemic, it is important to dissociate these two illnesses and emphasise that the two viruses and the vaccines used to combat them are quite different and that protection against one will not provide protection against the...

  9. Evaluation of Scoring Skills and Non Scoring Skills in the Brazilian SuperLeague Women’s Volleyball

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aluizio Otávio Gouvêa Ferreira Oliveira

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzed all the games (n=253 from the 2011/2012 and 2012/2013 Seasons of Brazilian SuperLeague Women’s Volleyball, to identify the game-related factors that discriminate in favor of winning and losing teams. In the 2011/2012 Season, the Total Shares Setting (TAL and Total Points Attack (TPA were factors that discriminated in favor of a defeat. The factors that determined the victory were the Total Shares Serve (TAS, Total Shares Defense (TAD, Total Shares Reception (TAR and Total Defense Excellent (TDE. In the 2012/2013 Season, the factor (TAD most often discriminated in favor of victory and the factor that led to defeat was the Total Points Made (TPF. The scoring skills (TPA and (TPF discriminated against the final outcome of the game, but surprisingly are associated with defeat and the (TAS supposed to victory. The non-scoring skills (TAD, (TAR and (TDE discriminate the end result of the game and this may be associated with the victory. The non-scoring skill (TAL determines the outcome of the game and is supposedly associated with the defeat.

  10. Extension of the lod score: the mod score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clerget-Darpoux, F

    2001-01-01

    In 1955 Morton proposed the lod score method both for testing linkage between loci and for estimating the recombination fraction between them. If a disease is controlled by a gene at one of these loci, the lod score computation requires the prior specification of an underlying model that assigns the probabilities of genotypes from the observed phenotypes. To address the case of linkage studies for diseases with unknown mode of inheritance, we suggested (Clerget-Darpoux et al., 1986) extending the lod score function to a so-called mod score function. In this function, the variables are both the recombination fraction and the disease model parameters. Maximizing the mod score function over all these parameters amounts to maximizing the probability of marker data conditional on the disease status. Under the absence of linkage, the mod score conforms to a chi-square distribution, with extra degrees of freedom in comparison to the lod score function (MacLean et al., 1993). The mod score is asymptotically maximum for the true disease model (Clerget-Darpoux and Bonaïti-Pellié, 1992; Hodge and Elston, 1994). Consequently, the power to detect linkage through mod score will be highest when the space of models where the maximization is performed includes the true model. On the other hand, one must avoid overparametrization of the model space. For example, when the approach is applied to affected sibpairs, only two constrained disease model parameters should be used (Knapp et al., 1994) for the mod score maximization. It is also important to emphasize the existence of a strong correlation between the disease gene location and the disease model. Consequently, there is poor resolution of the location of the susceptibility locus when the disease model at this locus is unknown. Of course, this is true regardless of the statistics used. The mod score may also be applied in a candidate gene strategy to model the potential effect of this gene in the disease. Since, however, it

  11. Global warning, global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benarde, M.A.

    1992-01-01

    This book provides insights into the formidable array of issues which, in a warmer world, could impinge upon every facet of readers lives. It examines climatic change and long-term implications of global warming for the ecosystem. Topics include the ozone layer and how it works; the greenhouse effect; the dangers of imbalance and its effects on human and animal life; disruptions to the basic ecology of the planet; and the real scientific evidence for and against aberrant climatic shifts. The author also examines workable social and political programs and changes that must be instituted to avoid ecological disaster

  12. Modelling the predictive performance of credit scoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shi-Wei Shen

    2013-07-01

    Research purpose: The purpose of this empirical paper was to examine the predictive performance of credit scoring systems in Taiwan. Motivation for the study: Corporate lending remains a major business line for financial institutions. However, in light of the recent global financial crises, it has become extremely important for financial institutions to implement rigorous means of assessing clients seeking access to credit facilities. Research design, approach and method: Using a data sample of 10 349 observations drawn between 1992 and 2010, logistic regression models were utilised to examine the predictive performance of credit scoring systems. Main findings: A test of Goodness of fit demonstrated that credit scoring models that incorporated the Taiwan Corporate Credit Risk Index (TCRI, micro- and also macroeconomic variables possessed greater predictive power. This suggests that macroeconomic variables do have explanatory power for default credit risk. Practical/managerial implications: The originality in the study was that three models were developed to predict corporate firms’ defaults based on different microeconomic and macroeconomic factors such as the TCRI, asset growth rates, stock index and gross domestic product. Contribution/value-add: The study utilises different goodness of fits and receiver operator characteristics during the examination of the robustness of the predictive power of these factors.

  13. Inter-Seasonal Influenza is Characterized by Extended Virus Transmission and Persistence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patterson Ross, Zoe; Komadina, Naomi; Deng, Yi-Mo; Spirason, Natalie; Kelly, Heath A.; Sullivan, Sheena G.; Barr, Ian G.; Holmes, Edward C.

    2015-01-01

    The factors that determine the characteristic seasonality of influenza remain enigmatic. Current models predict that occurrences of influenza outside the normal surveillance season within a temperate region largely reflect the importation of viruses from the alternate hemisphere or from equatorial regions in Asia. To help reveal the drivers of seasonality we investigated the origins and evolution of influenza viruses sampled during inter-seasonal periods in Australia. To this end we conducted an expansive phylogenetic analysis of 9912, 3804, and 3941 hemagglutinnin (HA) sequences from influenza A/H1N1pdm, A/H3N2, and B, respectively, collected globally during the period 2009-2014. Of the 1475 viruses sampled from Australia, 396 (26.8% of Australian, or 2.2% of global set) were sampled outside the monitored temperate influenza surveillance season (1 May – 31 October). Notably, rather than simply reflecting short-lived importations of virus from global localities with higher influenza prevalence, we documented a variety of more complex inter-seasonal transmission patterns including “stragglers” from the preceding season and “heralds” of the forthcoming season, and which included viruses sampled from clearly temperate regions within Australia. We also provide evidence for the persistence of influenza B virus between epidemic seasons, in which transmission of a viral lineage begins in one season and continues throughout the inter-seasonal period into the following season. Strikingly, a disproportionately high number of inter-seasonal influenza transmission events occurred in tropical and subtropical regions of Australia, providing further evidence that climate plays an important role in shaping patterns of influenza seasonality. PMID:26107631

  14. Probiotics (Lactobacillus gasseri KS-13, Bifidobacterium bifidum G9-1, and Bifidobacterium longum MM-2) improve rhinoconjunctivitis-specific quality of life in individuals with seasonal allergies: a double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennis-Wall, Jennifer C; Culpepper, Tyler; Nieves, Carmelo; Rowe, Cassie C; Burns, Alyssa M; Rusch, Carley T; Federico, Ashton; Ukhanova, Maria; Waugh, Sheldon; Mai, Volker; Christman, Mary C; Langkamp-Henken, Bobbi

    2017-03-01

    Background: Rhinoconjunctivitis-specific quality of life is often reduced during seasonal allergies. The Mini Rhinoconjunctivitis Quality of Life Questionnaire (MRQLQ) is a validated tool used to measure quality of life in people experiencing allergies (0 = not troubled to 6 = extremely troubled). Probiotics may improve quality of life during allergy season by increasing the percentage of regulatory T cells (Tregs) and inducing tolerance. Objective: The objective of this study was to determine whether consuming Lactobacillus gasseri KS-13, Bifidobacterium bifidum G9-1, and B. longum MM-2 compared with placebo would result in beneficial effects on MRQLQ scores throughout allergy season in individuals who typically experience seasonal allergies. Secondary outcomes included changes in immune markers as part of a potential mechanism for changes in MRQLQ scores. Design: In this double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel, randomized clinical trial, 173 participants (mean ± SEM: age 27 ± 1 y) who self-identified as having seasonal allergies received either a probiotic (2 capsules/d, 1.5 billion colony-forming units/capsule) or placebo during spring allergy season for 8 wk. MRQLQ scores were collected weekly throughout the study. Fasting blood samples were taken from a subgroup (placebo, n = 37; probiotic, n = 35) at baseline and week 6 (predicted peak of pollen) to determine serum immunoglobulin (Ig) E concentrations and Treg percentages. Results: The probiotic group reported an improvement in the MRQLQ global score from baseline to pollen peak (-0.68 ± 0.13) when compared with the placebo group (-0.19 ± 0.14; P = 0.0092). Both serum total IgE and the percentage of Tregs increased from baseline to week 6, but changes were not different between groups. Conclusions: This combination probiotic improved rhinoconjunctivitis-specific quality of life during allergy season for healthy individuals with self-reported seasonal allergies; however, the associated mechanism is

  15. Seasonal variation of the South Indian tropical gyre

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aguiar-González, B.; Ponsoni, Leandro; Ridderinkhof, H.; van Aken, H.M.; de Ruijter, W.P.M.; Maas, L.R.M.

    2016-01-01

    Based on satellite altimeter data and global atlases of temperature, salinity, wind stress and wind-driven circulation we investigate the seasonal variation of the South Indian tropical gyre and its associated open-ocean upwelling system, known as the Seychelles–Chagos Thermocline Ridge (SCTR).

  16. Multiple Score Comparison: a network meta-analysis approach to comparison and external validation of prognostic scores

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah R. Haile

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Prediction models and prognostic scores have been increasingly popular in both clinical practice and clinical research settings, for example to aid in risk-based decision making or control for confounding. In many medical fields, a large number of prognostic scores are available, but practitioners may find it difficult to choose between them due to lack of external validation as well as lack of comparisons between them. Methods Borrowing methodology from network meta-analysis, we describe an approach to Multiple Score Comparison meta-analysis (MSC which permits concurrent external validation and comparisons of prognostic scores using individual patient data (IPD arising from a large-scale international collaboration. We describe the challenges in adapting network meta-analysis to the MSC setting, for instance the need to explicitly include correlations between the scores on a cohort level, and how to deal with many multi-score studies. We propose first using IPD to make cohort-level aggregate discrimination or calibration scores, comparing all to a common comparator. Then, standard network meta-analysis techniques can be applied, taking care to consider correlation structures in cohorts with multiple scores. Transitivity, consistency and heterogeneity are also examined. Results We provide a clinical application, comparing prognostic scores for 3-year mortality in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease using data from a large-scale collaborative initiative. We focus on the discriminative properties of the prognostic scores. Our results show clear differences in performance, with ADO and eBODE showing higher discrimination with respect to mortality than other considered scores. The assumptions of transitivity and local and global consistency were not violated. Heterogeneity was small. Conclusions We applied a network meta-analytic methodology to externally validate and concurrently compare the prognostic properties

  17. Against Globalization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Philipsen, Lotte; Baggesgaard, Mads Anders

    2013-01-01

    In order to understand globalization, we need to consider what globalization is not. That is, in order to understand the mechanisms and elements that work toward globalization, we must, in a sense, read against globalization, highlighting the limitations of the concept and its inherent conflicts....... Only by employing this as a critical practice will we be analytically able to gain a dynamic understanding of the forces of globalization as they unfold today and as they have developed historically....

  18. Seasonal soybean crop reflectance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemaster, E. W. (Principal Investigator); Chance, J. E.

    1983-01-01

    Data are presented from field measurements of 1980 including 5 acquisitions of handheld radiometer reflectance measurements, 7 complete sets of parameters for implementing the Suits mode, and other biophysical parameters to characterize the soybean canopy. LANDSAT calculations on the simulated Brazilian soybean reflectance are included along with data collected during the summer and fall on 1981 on soybean single leaf optical parameters for three irrigation treatments. Tests of the Suits vegetative canopy reflectance model for the full hemisphere of observer directions as well as the nadir direction show moderate agreement for the visible channels of the MSS and poor agreement in the near infrared channel. Temporal changes in the spectral characteristics of the single leaves were seen to occur as a function of maturity which demonstrates that the absorptance of a soybean single leaf is more a function of thetransmittancee characteristics than the seasonally consistent single leaf reflectance.

  19. From Rasch scores to regression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Karl Bang

    2006-01-01

    Rasch models provide a framework for measurement and modelling latent variables. Having measured a latent variable in a population a comparison of groups will often be of interest. For this purpose the use of observed raw scores will often be inadequate because these lack interval scale propertie....... This paper compares two approaches to group comparison: linear regression models using estimated person locations as outcome variables and latent regression models based on the distribution of the score....

  20. Global Warming on Triton

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliot, J. L.; Hammel, H. B.; Wasserman, L. H.; Franz, O. G.; McDonald, S. W.; Person, M. J.; Olkin, C. B.; Dunham, E. J.; Spencer, J. R.; Stansberry, J. A.; hide

    1998-01-01

    Triton, Neptune's largest moon, has been predicted to undergo significant seasonal changes that would reveal themselves as changes in its mean frost temperature. But whether this temperature should at the present time be increasing, decreasing or constant depends on a number of parameters (such as the thermal properties of the surface, and frost migration patterns) that are unknown. Here we report observations of a recent stellar occultation by Triton which, when combined with earlier results, show that Triton has undergone a period of global warming since 1989. Our most conservative estimates of the rate of temperature and surface-pressure increase during this period imply that the atmosphere is doubling in bulk every 10 years, significantly faster than predicted by any published frost model for Triton. Our result suggests that permanent polar caps on Triton play a c dominant role in regulating seasonal atmospheric changes. Similar processes should also be active on Pluto.

  1. Seasonal climate change patterns due to cumulative CO2 emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Leduc, Martin; Damon Matthews, H.

    2017-07-01

    Cumulative CO2 emissions are near linearly related to both global and regional changes in annual-mean surface temperature. These relationships are known as the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE) and the regional TCRE (RTCRE), and have been shown to remain approximately constant over a wide range of cumulative emissions. Here, we assessed how well this relationship holds for seasonal patterns of temperature change, as well as for annual-mean and seasonal precipitation patterns. We analyzed an idealized scenario with CO2 concentration growing at an annual rate of 1% using data from 12 Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Seasonal RTCRE values for temperature varied considerably, with the highest seasonal variation evident in the Arctic, where RTCRE was about 5.5 °C per Tt C for boreal winter and about 2.0 °C per Tt C for boreal summer. Also the precipitation response in the Arctic during boreal winter was stronger than during other seasons. We found that emission-normalized seasonal patterns of temperature change were relatively robust with respect to time, though they were sub-linear with respect to emissions particularly near the Arctic. Moreover, RTCRE patterns for precipitation could not be quantified robustly due to the large internal variability of precipitation. Our results suggest that cumulative CO2 emissions are a useful metric to predict regional and seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature. This extension of the TCRE framework to seasonal and regional climate change is helpful for communicating the link between emissions and climate change to policy-makers and the general public, and is well-suited for impact studies that could make use of estimated regional-scale climate changes that are consistent with the carbon budgets associated with global temperature targets.

  2. Re-Scoring the Game’s Score

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gasselseder, Hans-Peter

    2014-01-01

    This study explores immersive presence as well as emotional valence and arousal in the context of dynamic and non-dynamic music scores in the 3rd person action-adventure video game genre while also considering relevant personality traits of the player. 60 subjects answered self-report questionnai......This study explores immersive presence as well as emotional valence and arousal in the context of dynamic and non-dynamic music scores in the 3rd person action-adventure video game genre while also considering relevant personality traits of the player. 60 subjects answered self......-temporal alignment in the resulting emotional congruency of nondiegetic music. Whereas imaginary aspects of immersive presence are systemically affected by the presentation of dynamic music, sensory spatial aspects show higher sensitivity towards the arousal potential of the music score. It is argued...

  3. Seasonal pH and carbondioxide level as indicator of vulnerability of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Seasonal pH and carbondioxide level as indicator of vulnerability of fresh and marine ... are already evident but the impact of these changes on marine and coastal living ... and their potential impacts on global climate and aquatic ecosystems.

  4. Seasonal variability in distribution and fluxes of methane in the Arabian Sea

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Patra, P.K.; Lal, S.; Venkataramani, S.; Gauns, M.; Sarma, V.V.S.S.

    Methane, a biogeochemically important gas in Earth's atmosphere was measured in the water column and air in the Arabian Sea in different seasons, viz., northeast monsoon, intermonsoon, and southwest monsoon, as part of the Joint Global Ocean Flux...

  5. Seasonal variations in inorganic carbon components in the central and eastern Arabian Sea

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sarma, V.V.S.S; DileepKumar, M.; George, M.D.; Rajendran, A

    Extensive observations have been made on the carbon dioxide system in the Arabian Sea during three different seasons as part of the Indian Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS) Programme. Concentrations of total carbon dioxide and partial pressure...

  6. Seasonal Climate Extremes : Mechanism, Predictability and Responses to Global Warming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shongwe, M.E.

    2010-01-01

    Climate extremes are rarely occurring natural phenomena in the climate system. They often pose one of the greatest environmental threats to human and natural systems. Statistical methods are commonly used to investigate characteristics of climate extremes. The fitted statistical properties are often

  7. Correlation of Head Impacts to Change in Balance Error Scoring System Scores in Division I Men's Lacrosse Players.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miyashita, Theresa L; Diakogeorgiou, Eleni; Marrie, Kaitlyn

    Investigation into the effect of cumulative subconcussive head impacts has yielded various results in the literature, with many supporting a link to neurological deficits. Little research has been conducted on men's lacrosse and associated balance deficits from head impacts. (1) Athletes will commit more errors on the postseason Balance Error Scoring System (BESS) test. (2) There will be a positive correlation to change in BESS scores and head impact exposure data. Prospective longitudinal study. Level 3. Thirty-four Division I men's lacrosse players (age, 19.59 ± 1.42 years) wore helmets instrumented with a sensor to collect head impact exposure data over the course of a competitive season. Players completed a BESS test at the start and end of the competitive season. The number of errors from pre- to postseason increased during the double-leg stance on foam ( P impacts sustained over the course of 1 lacrosse season, as measured by average linear acceleration, head injury criteria, and Gadd Severity Index scores. If there is microtrauma to the vestibular system due to repetitive subconcussive impacts, only an assessment that highly stresses the vestibular system may be able to detect these changes. Cumulative subconcussive impacts may result in neurocognitive dysfunction, including balance deficits, which are associated with an increased risk for injury. The development of a strategy to reduce total number of head impacts may curb the associated sequelae. Incorporation of a modified BESS test, firm surface only, may not be recommended as it may not detect changes due to repetitive impacts over the course of a competitive season.

  8. Atmospheric modelling and prediction at time scales from days to seasons

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available to seasonal forecasts, and produce multi-decadal climate change projections. This paper focuses on the shorter time-range from days to seasons. The conformal-cubic atmospheric model (CCAM) is an atmospheric global circulation model (AGCM) that can operate...

  9. Seasonality affects dietary diversity of school-age children in northern Ghana.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdul-Razak Abizari

    Full Text Available Dietary diversity score (DDS is relatively easy to measure and is shown to be a very useful indicator of the probability of adequate micronutrient intake. Dietary diversity, however, is usually assessed during a single period and little is known about the effect of seasonality on it. This study investigates whether dietary diversity is influenced by seasonality.Two cross-sectional surveys were conducted in two different seasons-dry season (October 2010 and rainy season (May 2011 among the same school-age children (SAC in two rural schools in northern Ghana. The study population consisted of 228 school-age children. A qualitative 24-hour dietary recall was conducted in both seasons. Based on 13 food groups, a score of 1 was given if a child consumed a food item belonging to a particular food group, else 0. Individual scores were aggregated into DDS for each child. Differences in mean DDS between seasons were compared using linear mixed model analysis.The dietary pattern of the SAC was commonly plant foods with poor consumption of animal source foods. The mean DDS was significantly higher (P < 0.001 in the rainy season (6.95 ± 0.55 compared to the dry season (6.44 ± 0.55 after adjusting for potential confounders such as age, sex, occupation (household head and mother and education of household head. The difference in mean DDS between dry and rainy seasons was mainly due to the difference in the consumption of Vitamin A-rich fruits and vegetables between the seasons. While vitamin A-rich fruits (64.0% vs. 0.9%; P < 0.0001 and vitamin A rich dark green leafy vegetables (52.6% vs. 23.3%, P < .0001 were consumed more during the rainy season than the dry season, more children consumed vitamin A-rich deep yellow, orange and red vegetables during the dry season than during the rainy season (73.7% vs. 36.4%, P <0.001.Seasonality has an effect on DDS and may affect the quality of dietary intake of SAC; in such a context, it would be useful to measure DDS

  10. Global Strategy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Peter Ping

    2013-01-01

    Global strategy differs from domestic strategy in terms of content and process as well as context and structure. The content of global strategy can contain five key elements, while the process of global strategy can have six major stages. These are expounded below. Global strategy is influenced...... by rich and complementary local contexts with diverse resource pools and game rules at the national level to form a broad ecosystem at the global level. Further, global strategy dictates the interaction or balance between different entry strategies at the levels of internal and external networks....

  11. Global predictability of temperature extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coughlan de Perez, Erin; van Aalst, Maarten; Bischiniotis, Konstantinos; Mason, Simon; Nissan, Hannah; Pappenberger, Florian; Stephens, Elisabeth; Zsoter, Ervin; van den Hurk, Bart

    2018-05-01

    Extreme temperatures are one of the leading causes of death and disease in both developed and developing countries, and heat extremes are projected to rise in many regions. To reduce risk, heatwave plans and cold weather plans have been effectively implemented around the world. However, much of the world’s population is not yet protected by such systems, including many data-scarce but also highly vulnerable regions. In this study, we assess at a global level where such systems have the potential to be effective at reducing risk from temperature extremes, characterizing (1) long-term average occurrence of heatwaves and coldwaves, (2) seasonality of these extremes, and (3) short-term predictability of these extreme events three to ten days in advance. Using both the NOAA and ECMWF weather forecast models, we develop global maps indicating a first approximation of the locations that are likely to benefit from the development of seasonal preparedness plans and/or short-term early warning systems for extreme temperature. The extratropics generally show both short-term skill as well as strong seasonality; in the tropics, most locations do also demonstrate one or both. In fact, almost 5 billion people live in regions that have seasonality and predictability of heatwaves and/or coldwaves. Climate adaptation investments in these regions can take advantage of seasonality and predictability to reduce risks to vulnerable populations.

  12. Can bias correction and statistical downscaling methods improve the skill of seasonal precipitation forecasts?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manzanas, R.; Lucero, A.; Weisheimer, A.; Gutiérrez, J. M.

    2018-02-01

    Statistical downscaling methods are popular post-processing tools which are widely used in many sectors to adapt the coarse-resolution biased outputs from global climate simulations to the regional-to-local scale typically required by users. They range from simple and pragmatic Bias Correction (BC) methods, which directly adjust the model outputs of interest (e.g. precipitation) according to the available local observations, to more complex Perfect Prognosis (PP) ones, which indirectly derive local predictions (e.g. precipitation) from appropriate upper-air large-scale model variables (predictors). Statistical downscaling methods have been extensively used and critically assessed in climate change applications; however, their advantages and limitations in seasonal forecasting are not well understood yet. In particular, a key problem in this context is whether they serve to improve the forecast quality/skill of raw model outputs beyond the adjustment of their systematic biases. In this paper we analyze this issue by applying two state-of-the-art BC and two PP methods to downscale precipitation from a multimodel seasonal hindcast in a challenging tropical region, the Philippines. To properly assess the potential added value beyond the reduction of model biases, we consider two validation scores which are not sensitive to changes in the mean (correlation and reliability categories). Our results show that, whereas BC methods maintain or worsen the skill of the raw model forecasts, PP methods can yield significant skill improvement (worsening) in cases for which the large-scale predictor variables considered are better (worse) predicted by the model than precipitation. For instance, PP methods are found to increase (decrease) model reliability in nearly 40% of the stations considered in boreal summer (autumn). Therefore, the choice of a convenient downscaling approach (either BC or PP) depends on the region and the season.

  13. ASSOCIATIONS BETWEEN SEASONAL SLEEP CHANGE AND INDOOR TANNING1,2

    Science.gov (United States)

    CULNAN, ELIZABETH; KLOSS, JACQUELINE D.; DARLOW, SUSAN; HECKMAN, CAROLYN J.

    2015-01-01

    Summary Identification of risk factors for indoor tanning may ultimately aid the development of better indoor tanning prevention strategies, which is pertinent given the association between indoor tanning and skin cancer. This study aimed to examine the relationship between seasonal sleep change and indoor tanning. Women tanners (N= 139) completed self-report measures including items relating to seasonal sleep changes, seasonal affective disorder (SAD), reasons for tanning, tanning during the winter months, and the Tanning Pathology Scale (TAPS), which measures problematic tanning motives and symptoms of tanning dependence. It was hypothesized that seasonal sleep change and SAD would be associated with greater indoor tanning during the winter, more tanning to improve mood and to relax, and higher scores on the TAPS. Findings indicated that more seasonal sleep change was associated with tanning to improve mood and higher scores on the TAPS. Similarly, the presence of SAD was related to tanning to improve mood, tanning to relax, and more problematic tanning. PMID:25730744

  14. Regional-seasonal weather forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abarbanel, H.; Foley, H.; MacDonald, G.; Rothaus, O.; Rudermann, M.; Vesecky, J.

    1980-08-01

    In the interest of allocating heating fuels optimally, the state-of-the-art for seasonal weather forecasting is reviewed. A model using an enormous data base of past weather data is contemplated to improve seasonal forecasts, but present skills do not make that practicable. 90 references. (PSB)

  15. Recruitment factors which affect the outcome of a seasonal allergic rhinitis trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Shilpy; Vasnani, Raj; De Tineo, Marcella; Du, Gaixin; Pinto, Jayant M; Baroody, Fuad M; Naclerio, Robert M

    2011-01-01

    Although intranasal corticosteroids (INSs) are the first-line treatment for seasonal allergic rhinitis (SAR), some patients do not respond adequately, reflecting biological heterogeneity or confounding conditions. The objective of this study was to determine what recruitment factors identify SAR subjects who will be unresponsive to mometasone furoate (MF). We performed a 2-week, double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel study on 40 subjects with SAR. Each subject underwent a decongestant test using oxymetazoline. Baseline nasal symptoms, nasal peak inspiratory flow (NPIF) and Rhinoconjunctivitis Quality of Life Questionnaire (RQLQ) scores were recorded. Next, subjects were randomized to either 200 μg of MF or placebo. Symptom diaries and NPIF measurements were completed twice daily. After 2 weeks, subjects repeated the RQLQ and the global assessment of symptoms. There was a significant reduction in symptoms in the MF group compared with placebo (p ≤ 0.05) in patients with baseline total symptom scores of ≥6. Multivariate analysis showed that treatment (MF versus placebo; p = 0.049) and amount of decongestion (percent change in NPIF after oxymetazoline; p = 0.008) predicted the improvement in total nasal symptoms. In clinical trials, SAR subjects must report multiple symptoms to be responsive to treatment with INSs. Our results also support the use of the decongestant test for choice of appropriate study volunteers, both to ensure participation of potentially responsive subjects and to eliminate those with confounding issues.

  16. Skin scoring in systemic sclerosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zachariae, Hugh; Bjerring, Peter; Halkier-Sørensen, Lars

    1994-01-01

    Forty-one patients with systemic sclerosis were investigated with a new and simple skin score method measuring the degree of thickening and pliability in seven regions together with area involvement in each region. The highest values were, as expected, found in diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis...... (type III SS) and the lowest in limited cutaneous systemic sclerosis (type I SS) with no lesions extending above wrists and ancles. A positive correlation was found to the aminoterminal propeptide of type III procollagen, a serological marker for synthesis of type III collagen. The skin score...

  17. Global Europa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manners, Ian

    2010-01-01

    at the mythology of ‘global Europa' - the EU in the world. It concludes with a reflection on the way in which the many diverse myths of global Europa compete for daily attention, whether as lore, ideology, or pleasure. In this respect the mythology of global Europa is part of our everyday existence, part of the EU...

  18. The persistence of depression score

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spijker, J.; de Graaf, R.; Ormel, J.; Nolen, W. A.; Grobbee, D. E.; Burger, H.

    2006-01-01

    Objective: To construct a score that allows prediction of major depressive episode (MDE) persistence in individuals with MDE using determinants of persistence identified in previous research. Method: Data were derived from 250 subjects from the general population with new MDE according to DSM-III-R.

  19. Score distributions in information retrieval

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arampatzis, A.; Robertson, S.; Kamps, J.

    2009-01-01

    We review the history of modeling score distributions, focusing on the mixture of normal-exponential by investigating the theoretical as well as the empirical evidence supporting its use. We discuss previously suggested conditions which valid binary mixture models should satisfy, such as the

  20. Developing Scoring Algorithms (Earlier Methods)

    Science.gov (United States)

    We developed scoring procedures to convert screener responses to estimates of individual dietary intake for fruits and vegetables, dairy, added sugars, whole grains, fiber, and calcium using the What We Eat in America 24-hour dietary recall data from the 2003-2006 NHANES.

  1. Communicating efficacy information based on composite scores in direct-to-consumer prescription drug advertising.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Pamela A; O'Donoghue, Amie C; Sullivan, Helen W; Willoughby, Jessica Fitts; Squire, Claudia; Parvanta, Sarah; Betts, Kevin R

    2016-04-01

    Drug efficacy can be measured by composite scores, which consist of two or more symptoms or other clinical components of a disease. We evaluated how individuals interpret composite scores in direct-to-consumer (DTC) prescription drug advertising. We conducted an experimental study of seasonal allergy sufferers (n=1967) who viewed a fictitious print DTC ad that varied by the type of information featured (general indication, list of symptoms, or definition of composite scores) and the presence or absence of an educational intervention about composite scores. We measured composite score recognition and comprehension, and perceived drug efficacy and risk. Ads that featured either (1) the composite score definition alone or (2) the list of symptoms or general indication information along with the educational intervention improved composite score comprehension. Ads that included the composite score definition or the educational intervention led to lower confidence in the drug's benefits. The composite score definition improved composite score recognition and lowered drug risk perceptions. Adding composite score information to DTC print ads may improve individuals' comprehension of composite scores and affect their perceptions of the drug. Providing composite score information may lead to more informed patient-provider prescription drug decisions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Global usability

    CERN Document Server

    Douglas, Ian

    2011-01-01

    The concept of usability has become an increasingly important consideration in the design of all kinds of technology. As more products are aimed at global markets and developed through internationally distributed teams, usability design needs to be addressed in global terms. Interest in usability as a design issue and specialist area of research and education has developed steadily in North America and Europe since the 1980's. However, it is only over the last ten years that it has emerged as a global concern. Global Usability provides an introduction to the important issues in globalizing des

  3. Meteorological analysis of symptom data for people with seasonal affective disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarran, Christophe; Albers, Casper; Sachon, Patrick; Meesters, Ybe

    2017-11-01

    It is thought that variation in natural light levels affect people with Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD). Several meteorological factors related to luminance can be forecast but little is known about which factors are most indicative of worsening SAD symptoms. The aim of this meteorological analysis is to determine which factors are linked to SAD symptoms. The symptoms of 291 individuals with SAD in and near Groningen have been evaluated over the period 2003-2009. Meteorological factors linked to periods of low natural light (sunshine, global radiation, horizontal visibility, cloud cover and mist) and others (temperature, humidity and pressure) were obtained from weather observation stations. A Bayesian zero adjusted auto-correlated multilevel Poisson model was carried out to assess which variables influence the SAD symptom score BDI-II. The outcome of the study suggests that the variable sunshine duration, for both the current and previous week, and global radiation for the previous week, are significantly linked to SAD symptoms. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Copenhagen hip and groin outcome score (HAGOS) in male soccer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorborg, Kristian; Branci, Sonia; Stensbirk, Frederik

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND/AIM: Reference values are needed in order to interpret the Copenhagen Hip and Groin Outcome Score (HAGOS) in male soccer players with hip and groin pain. The aim of this study was to establish reference values for HAGOS in hip and groin injury-free male soccer players. METHODS: We...... included 444 groin injury-free soccer players from 40 clubs (divisions 1-4) in Eastern Denmark, mean age (SD) 23.6 (4.4), training soccer 3.4 (1) times per week. All players were hip and groin injury-free at the time of inclusion (beginning of season, 2011). RESULTS: Of the 444 hip and groin injury...... HAGOS subscales (psoccer players, with no pain in the previous or present season (n=301), are: pain: 80.1-100, symptoms: 64.3-100, activities of daily living: 80...

  5. Seasonal Variations in Color Preference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schloss, Karen B; Nelson, Rolf; Parker, Laura; Heck, Isobel A; Palmer, Stephen E

    2017-08-01

    We investigated how color preferences vary according to season and whether those changes could be explained by the ecological valence theory (EVT). To do so, we assessed the same participants' preferences for the same colors during fall, winter, spring, and summer in the northeastern United States, where there are large seasonal changes in environmental colors. Seasonal differences were most pronounced between fall and the other three seasons. Participants liked fall-associated dark-warm colors-for example, dark-red, dark-orange (brown), dark-yellow (olive), and dark-chartreuse-more during fall than other seasons. The EVT could explain these changes with a modified version of Palmer and Schloss' (2010) weighted affective valence estimate (WAVE) procedure that added an activation term to the WAVE equation. The results indicate that color preferences change according to season, as color-associated objects become more/less activated in the observer. These seasonal changes in color preferences could not be characterized by overall shifts in weights along cone-contrast axes. Copyright © 2016 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  6. Polygons in Seasonal Frost

    Science.gov (United States)

    2004-01-01

    8 February 2004 This Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) image shows a summertime scene in the south polar region of the red planet. A patch of bright frost--possibly water ice--is seen in the lower third of the image. Polygon patterns that have developed in the ice as it sublimes away can be seen; these are not evident in the defrosted surfaces, so they are thought to have formed in the frost. This image is located near 82.6oS, 352.5oW. Sunlight illuminates this scene from the upper left; the image covers an area 3 km (1.9 mi) wide.

  7. Seasonal Forecast Skill And Teleconnections Over East Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacLeod, D.; Palmer, T.

    2017-12-01

    Many people living in East Africa are significantly exposed to risks arising from climate variability. The region experiences two rainy seasons and poor performance of either or both of these (such as seen recently in 2016/17) reduces agricultural productivity and threatens food security. In combination with other factors this can lead to famine. By utilizing seasonal climate forecasts, preparatory actions can be taken in order to mitigate the risks arising from such climate variability. As part of the project ForPAc: "Towards forecast-based preparedness action", we are working with humanitarian agencies in Kenya to build such early warning systems on subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales. Here, the seasonal predictability and forecast skill of the two East African rainy seasons will be presented. Results from the new ECMWF operational forecasting system SEAS5 will be shown and compared to the previous System 4. Analysis of a new 110 year long atmosphere-only simulation will also be discussed, demonstrating impacts of atmosphere-ocean coupling as well as putting operational forecast skill in a long-term context. Particular focus will be given to the model representation of teleconnections of seasonal climate with global sea surface temperatures; highlighting sources of forecast error and informing future model development.

  8. Nursing Activities Score and Acute Kidney Injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coelho, Filipe Utuari de Andrade; Watanabe, Mirian; Fonseca, Cassiane Dezoti da; Padilha, Katia Grillo; Vattimo, Maria de Fátima Fernandes

    2017-01-01

    to evaluate the nursing workload in intensive care patients with acute kidney injury (AKI). A quantitative study, conducted in an intensive care unit, from April to August of 2015. The Nursing Activities Score (NAS) and Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) were used to measure nursing workload and to classify the stage of AKI, respectively. A total of 190 patients were included. Patients who developed AKI (44.2%) had higher NAS when compared to those without AKI (43.7% vs 40.7%), p <0.001. Patients with stage 1, 2 and 3 AKI showed higher NAS than those without AKI. A relationship was identified between stage 2 and 3 with those without AKI (p = 0.002 and p <0.001). The NAS was associated with the presence of AKI, the score increased with the progression of the stages, and it was associated with AKI, stage 2 and 3. avaliar a carga de trabalho de enfermagem em pacientes de terapia intensiva com lesão renal aguda (LRA). estudo quantitativo, em Unidade de Terapia Intensiva, no período de abril a agosto de 2015. O Nursing Activities Score (NAS) e o Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) foram utilizados para medir a carga de trabalho de enfermagem e classificar o estágio da LRA, respectivamente. foram incluídos 190 pacientes. Os pacientes que desenvolveram LRA (44,2%) possuíam NAS superiores quando comparados aos sem LRA (43,7% vs 40,7%), p<0,001. Os pacientes com LRA nos estágios 1, 2 e 3 de LRA demonstraram NAS superiores aos sem LRA, houve relação entre os estágios 2 e 3 com os sem LRA, p=0,002 e p<0,001. o NAS apresentou associação com a existência de LRA, visto que seu valor aumenta com a progressão dos estágios, tendo associação com os estágios 2 e 3 de LRA.

  9. A simple climatology of westerly jet streams in global reanalysis datasets part 1: mid-latitude upper tropospheric jets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rikus, Lawrie

    2018-04-01

    A simple closed contour object identification scheme has been applied to the zonal mean monthly mean zonal wind fields from nine global reanalysis data sets for 31 years of the satellite era (1979-2009) to identify objects corresponding to westerly jet streams. The results cluster naturally into six individual jet streams but only the mid-latitude upper-tropospheric jets are considered here. The time series of the jet properties from all reanalyses are decomposed into seasonal means and anomalies, and correlations between variables are evaluated, with the aim of identifying robust features which can form the basis of evaluation metrics for climate model simulations of the twentieth century. There is substantial agreement between all the reanalyses for all jet properties although there are some systematic differences with particular data sets. Some of the results from the object identification applied to the reanalyses are used in a simple example of a model evaluation score for the zonal mean jet seasonal cycle.

  10. Evaluation of pre-breeding reproductive tract scoring as a predictor of long term reproductive performance in beef heifers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Holm, D E; Nielen, M; Jorritsma, R; Irons, P C; Thompson, P N

    2015-01-01

    In a 7-year longitudinal study 292 Bovelder beef cows in a restricted breeding system in South Africa were observed from 1 to 2 days before their first breeding season, when reproductive tract scoring (RTS, scored from 1 to 5) was performed, until weaning their 5th calves. The objective was to

  11. Seasonal Allergies: Diagnosis, Treatment & Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... this page please turn JavaScript on. Feature: Seasonal Allergies Diagnosis, Treatment & Research Past Issues / Spring 2015 Table of Contents Diagnosis Testing for Allergies Knowing exactly what you are allergic to can ...

  12. 2012 Swimming Season Fact Sheets

    Science.gov (United States)

    To help beachgoers make informed decisions about swimming at U.S. beaches, EPA annually publishes state-by-state data about beach closings and advisories for the previous year's swimming season. These fact sheets summarize that information by state.

  13. Atlas of the global distribution of atmospheric heating during the global weather experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaack, Todd K.; Johnson, Donald R.

    1991-01-01

    Global distributions of atmospheric heating for the annual cycle of the Global Weather Experiment are estimated from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Level 3b data set. Distributions of monthly, seasonally, and annually averaged heating are presented for isentropic and isobaric layers within the troposphere and for the troposphere as a whole. The distributions depict a large-scale structure of atmospheric heating that appears spatially and temporally consistent with known features of the global circulation and the seasonal evolution.

  14. Development of a monthly to seasonal forecast framework tailored to inland waterway transport in central Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meißner, Dennis; Klein, Bastian; Ionita, Monica

    2017-12-01

    Traditionally, navigation-related forecasts in central Europe cover short- to medium-range lead times linked to the travel times of vessels to pass the main waterway bottlenecks leaving the loading ports. Without doubt, this aspect is still essential for navigational users, but in light of the growing political intention to use the free capacity of the inland waterway transport in Europe, additional lead time supporting strategic decisions is more and more in demand. However, no such predictions offering extended lead times of several weeks up to several months currently exist for considerable parts of the European waterway network. This paper describes the set-up of a monthly to seasonal forecasting system for the German stretches of the international waterways of the Rhine, Danube and Elbe rivers. Two competitive forecast approaches have been implemented: the dynamical set-up forces a hydrological model with post-processed outputs from ECMWF general circulation model System 4, whereas the statistical approach is based on the empirical relationship (teleconnection) of global oceanic, climate and regional hydro-meteorological data with river flows. The performance of both forecast methods is evaluated in relation to the climatological forecast (ensemble of historical streamflow) and the well-known ensemble streamflow prediction approach (ESP, ensemble based on historical meteorology) using common performance indicators (correlation coefficient; mean absolute error, skill score; mean squared error, skill score; and continuous ranked probability, skill score) and an impact-based evaluation quantifying the potential economic gain. The following four key findings result from this study: (1) as former studies for other regions of central Europe indicate, the accuracy and/or skill of the meteorological forcing used has a larger effect than the quality of initial hydrological conditions for relevant stations along the German waterways. (2) Despite the predictive

  15. Combining Teacher Assessment Scores with External Examination ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Combining Teacher Assessment Scores with External Examination Scores for Certification: Comparative Study of Four Statistical Models. ... University entrance examination scores in mathematics were obtained for a subsample of 115 ...

  16. Scoring System Improvements to Three Leadership Predictors

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Dela

    1997-01-01

    .... The modified scoring systems were evaluated by rescoring responses randomly selected from the sample which had been scored according to the scoring systems originally developed for the leadership research...

  17. SHADOW GLOBALIZATION

    OpenAIRE

    Larissa Mihaylovna Kapitsa

    2014-01-01

    The article reviews some development trends brought about by globalization, particularly, a growing tax evasion and tax avoidance, an expansion of illicit financial flows and the proliferation of a global criminal network. The author draws attention to some new phenomena, particularly, cosmopolitanization of some parts of national elites and a deepening divide between national interests and the private interests of elites as a consequence of financial globalization. Modern mass media, both Ru...

  18. Global Mindset

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Olav Jull

    2016-01-01

    The concept of Global Mindset (GM) – the way to think about the global reality – is on the agenda of multinational companies concomitant with the increase in global complexity, uncertainty and diversity. In spite of a number of studies, the concept is still fluid and far from a managerial.......e. the capability to sense (quickly), reflect (constructively) and act purposefully (for mutual benefit). A case on an MNC is used at the end to show the organizational manifestations of a GM....

  19. Interpreting force concept inventory scores: Normalized gain and SAT scores

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey J. Steinert

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Preinstruction SAT scores and normalized gains (G on the force concept inventory (FCI were examined for individual students in interactive engagement (IE courses in introductory mechanics at one high school (N=335 and one university (N=292 , and strong, positive correlations were found for both populations ( r=0.57 and r=0.46 , respectively. These correlations are likely due to the importance of cognitive skills and abstract reasoning in learning physics. The larger correlation coefficient for the high school population may be a result of the much shorter time interval between taking the SAT and studying mechanics, because the SAT may provide a more current measure of abilities when high school students begin the study of mechanics than it does for college students, who begin mechanics years after the test is taken. In prior research a strong correlation between FCI G and scores on Lawson’s Classroom Test of Scientific Reasoning for students from the same two schools was observed. Our results suggest that, when interpreting class average normalized FCI gains and comparing different classes, it is important to take into account the variation of students’ cognitive skills, as measured either by the SAT or by Lawson’s test. While Lawson’s test is not commonly given to students in most introductory mechanics courses, SAT scores provide a readily available alternative means of taking account of students’ reasoning abilities. Knowing the students’ cognitive level before instruction also allows one to alter instruction or to use an intervention designed to improve students’ cognitive level.

  20. Interpreting force concept inventory scores: Normalized gain and SAT scores

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vincent P. Coletta

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Preinstruction SAT scores and normalized gains (G on the force concept inventory (FCI were examined for individual students in interactive engagement (IE courses in introductory mechanics at one high school (N=335 and one university (N=292, and strong, positive correlations were found for both populations (r=0.57 and r=0.46, respectively. These correlations are likely due to the importance of cognitive skills and abstract reasoning in learning physics. The larger correlation coefficient for the high school population may be a result of the much shorter time interval between taking the SAT and studying mechanics, because the SAT may provide a more current measure of abilities when high school students begin the study of mechanics than it does for college students, who begin mechanics years after the test is taken. In prior research a strong correlation between FCI G and scores on Lawson’s Classroom Test of Scientific Reasoning for students from the same two schools was observed. Our results suggest that, when interpreting class average normalized FCI gains and comparing different classes, it is important to take into account the variation of students’ cognitive skills, as measured either by the SAT or by Lawson’s test. While Lawson’s test is not commonly given to students in most introductory mechanics courses, SAT scores provide a readily available alternative means of taking account of students’ reasoning abilities. Knowing the students’ cognitive level before instruction also allows one to alter instruction or to use an intervention designed to improve students’ cognitive level.

  1. Morphologic and functional scoring of cystic fibrosis lung disease using MRI

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eichinger, Monika; Optazaite, Daiva-Elzbieta; Kopp-Schneider, Annette; Hintze, Christian; Biederer, Jürgen; Niemann, Anne; Mall, Marcus A.; Wielpütz, Mark O.; Kauczor, Hans-Ulrich; Puderbach, Michael

    2012-01-01

    Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) gains increasing importance in the assessment of cystic fibrosis (CF) lung disease. The aim of this study was to develop a morpho-functional MR-scoring-system and to evaluate its intra- and inter-observer reproducibility and clinical practicability to monitor CF lung disease over a broad severity range from infancy to adulthood. 35 CF patients with broad age range (mean 15.3 years; range 0.5–42) were examined by morphological and functional MRI. Lobe based analysis was performed for parameters bronchiectasis/bronchial-wall-thickening, mucus plugging, abscesses/sacculations, consolidations, special findings and perfusion defects. The maximum global score was 72. Two experienced radiologists scored the images at two time points (interval 10 weeks). Upper and lower limits of agreement, concordance correlation coefficients (CCC), total deviation index and coverage probability were calculated for global, morphology, function, component and lobar scores. Global scores ranged from 6 to 47. Intra- and inter-reader agreement for global scores were good (CCC: 0.98 (R1), 0.94 (R2), 0.97 (R1/R2)) and were comparable between high and low scores. Our results indicate that the proposed morpho-functional MR-scoring-system is reproducible and applicable for semi-quantitative evaluation of a large spectrum of CF lung disease severity. This scoring-system can be applied for the routine assessment of CF lung disease and maybe as endpoint for clinical trials.

  2. The Effects of the Clock and Kickoff Rule Changes on Actual and Market-Based Expected Scoring in NCAA Football

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenneth Linna

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Clock rule changes were introduced in the 2006 season with the goal of reducing the average duration of the game; these changes were reversed in 2007. In addition, in 2007 the kickoff rule was changed to create more excitement and potentially more scoring. We examine what happened to actual and expected scoring during these National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA football seasons. The clock rule change in 2006 led to lower scoring which was not fully encompassed in the betting market, leading to significant returns to betting the under. Multiple rule changes in 2007 led to volatility in the betting market that subsided by season’s end.

  3. Blind Grid Scoring Record No. 290

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Overbay, Larry; Robitaille, George

    2005-01-01

    ...) utilizing the APG Standardized UXO Technology Demonstration Site Blind Grid. Scoring Records have been coordinated by Larry Overbay and the Standardized UXO Technology Demonstration Site Scoring Committee...

  4. Blind Grid Scoring Record No. 293

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Overbay, Larry; Robitaille, George; Archiable, Robert; Fling, Rick; McClung, Christina

    2005-01-01

    ...) utilizing the YPG Standardized UXO Technology Demonstration Site Blind Grid. Scoring Records have been coordinated by Larry Overbay and the Standardized UXO Technology Demonstration Site Scoring Committee...

  5. Open Field Scoring Record No. 298

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Overbay, Jr., Larry; Robitaille, George; Fling, Rick; McClung, Christina

    2005-01-01

    ...) utilizing the APG Standardized UXO Technology Demonstration Site Open Field. Scoring Records have been coordinated by Larry Overbay and the Standardized UXO Technology Demonstration Site Scoring Committee...

  6. Open Field Scoring Record No. 299

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Overbay, Larry; Robitaille, George

    2005-01-01

    ...) utilizing the YPG Standardized UXO Technology Demonstration Site Open Field. Scoring Records have been coordinated by Larry Overbay and the standardized UXO Technology Demonstration Site Scoring Committee...

  7. Advance and prospectus of seasonal prediction: assessment of the APCC/CliPAS 14-model ensemble retrospective seasonal prediction (1980-2004)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Bin; Lee, June-Yi; Kang, In-Sik; Shukla, J.; Park, C.-K.; Kumar, A.; Schemm, J.; Cocke, S.; Kug, J.-S.; Luo, J.-J.; Zhou, T.; Wang, B.; Fu, X.; Yun, W.-T.; Alves, O.; Jin, E. K.; Kinter, J.; Kirtman, B.; Krishnamurti, T.; Lau, N. C.; Lau, W.; Liu, P.; Pegion, P.; Rosati, T.; Schubert, S.; Stern, W.; Suarez, M.; Yamagata, T.

    2009-07-01

    Temperature (SST) anomalies are primary sources of atmospheric climate variability worldwide. The MME 1-month lead hindcast can predict, with high fidelity, the spatial-temporal structures of the first two leading empirical orthogonal modes of the equatorial SST anomalies for both boreal summer (JJA) and winter (DJF), which account for about 80-90% of the total variance. The major bias is a westward shift of SST anomaly between the dateline and 120°E, which may potentially degrade global teleconnection associated with it. The TCC score for SST predictions over the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean reaches about 0.68 with a 6-month lead forecast. However, the TCC score for Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index drops below 0.40 at a 3-month lead for both the May and November initial conditions due to the prediction barriers across July, and January, respectively. The MME prediction skills are well correlated with the amplitude of Niño 3.4 SST variation. The forecasts for 2 m air temperature are better in El Niño years than in La Niña years. The precipitation and circulation are predicted better in ENSO-decaying JJA than in ENSO-developing JJA. There is virtually no skill in ENSO-neutral years. Continuing improvement of the one-tier climate model’s slow coupled dynamics in reproducing realistic amplitude, spatial patterns, and temporal evolution of ENSO cycle is a key for long-lead seasonal forecast. Forecast of monsoon precipitation remains a major challenge. The seasonal rainfall predictions over land and during local summer have little skill, especially over tropical Africa. The differences in forecast skills over land areas between the CliPAS and DEMETER MMEs indicate potentials for further improvement of prediction over land. There is an urgent need to assess impacts of land surface initialization on the skill of seasonal and monthly forecast using a multi-model framework.

  8. Advance and prospectus of seasonal prediction: assessment of the APCC/CliPAS 14-model ensemble retrospective seasonal prediction (1980-2004)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Bin; Lee, June-Yi; Fu, X.; Liu, P. [University of Hawaii, Department of Meteorology and International Pacific Research Center, IPRC, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, Honolulu, HI (United States); Kang, In-Sik; Kug, J.S. [Seoul National University, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul (Korea); Shukla, J.; Jin, E.K.; Kinter, J.; Kirtman, B. [George Mason University and COLA, Climate Dynamics Program, Calverton, MD (United States); Park, C.K. [APEC Climate Center, Busan (Korea); Kumar, A.; Schemm, J. [Climate Prediction Center/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Cocke, S.; Krishnamurti, T. [Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL (United States); Luo, J.J. [Frontier Research Center for Global Chnage, Yokohama (Japan); Zhou, T.; Wang, B. [Chinese Academy of Sciences, LASG/Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing (China); Yun, W.T. [Korean Meteorological Administration, Seoul (Korea); Alves, O. [Bureau of Meteorology Research Center, Melburne (Australia); Lau, N.C.; Rosati, T.; Stern, W. [Princeton University, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA, Princeton, NJ (United States); Lau, W.; Pegion, P.; Schubert, S.; Suarez, M. [Godard Space Flight Center/NASA, Greenbelt, MD (United States)

    2009-07-15

    Temperature (SST) anomalies are primary sources of atmospheric climate variability worldwide. The MME 1-month lead hindcast can predict, with high fidelity, the spatial-temporal structures of the first two leading empirical orthogonal modes of the equatorial SST anomalies for both boreal summer (JJA) and winter (DJF), which account for about 80-90% of the total variance. The major bias is a westward shift of SST anomaly between the dateline and 120 E, which may potentially degrade global teleconnection associated with it. The TCC score for SST predictions over the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean reaches about 0.68 with a 6-month lead forecast. However, the TCC score for Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index drops below 0.40 at a 3-month lead for both the May and November initial conditions due to the prediction barriers across July, and January, respectively. The MME prediction skills are well correlated with the amplitude of Nino 3.4 SST variation. The forecasts for 2 m air temperature are better in El Nino years than in La Nina years. The precipitation and circulation are predicted better in ENSO-decaying JJA than in ENSO-developing JJA. There is virtually no skill in ENSO-neutral years. Continuing improvement of the one-tier climate model's slow coupled dynamics in reproducing realistic amplitude, spatial patterns, and temporal evolution of ENSO cycle is a key for long-lead seasonal forecast. Forecast of monsoon precipitation remains a major challenge. The seasonal rainfall predictions over land and during local summer have little skill, especially over tropical Africa. The differences in forecast skills over land areas between the CliPAS and DEMETER MMEs indicate potentials for further improvement of prediction over land. There is an urgent need to assess impacts of land surface initialization on the skill of seasonal and monthly forecast using a multi-model framework. (orig.)

  9. Brain Networks Implicated in Seasonal Affective Disorder

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nørgaard, Martin; Ganz, Melanie; Svarer, Claus

    2017-01-01

    , patients with SAD fail to globally downregulate their cerebral serotonin transporter (5-HTT) in winter, and that this effect seemed to be particularly pronounced in female S-carriers of the 5-HTTLPR genotype. The purpose of this study was to identify a 5-HTT brain network that accounts for the adaption...... without SAD; it included the right superior frontal gyrus, brainstem, globus pallidus (bilaterally) and the left hippocampus. Across seasons, female S' carriers without SAD showed nominally higher 5-HTT levels in these regions compared to female S' carriers with SAD, but the group difference was only...... winter compared to female S' carriers without SAD. Limitations: The study is preliminary and limited by small sample size in the SAD group (N = 6). Conclusions: These findings provide novel exploratory evidence for a wintertime state-dependent difference in 5-HTT levels that may leave SAD females...

  10. Modeled seasonality of glacial abrupt climate events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flueckiger, Jacqueline [Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States); Environmental Physics, Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics, ETH Zuerich, Zurich (Switzerland); Knutti, Reto [Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zuerich, Zurich (Switzerland); White, James W.C. [Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States); Renssen, Hans [Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2008-11-15

    Greenland ice cores, as well as many other paleo-archives from the northern hemisphere, recorded a series of 25 warm interstadial events, the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, during the last glacial period. We use the three-dimensional coupled global ocean-atmosphere-sea ice model ECBILT-CLIO and force it with freshwater input into the North Atlantic to simulate abrupt glacial climate events, which we use as analogues for D-O events. We focus our analysis on the Northern Hemisphere. The simulated events show large differences in the regional and seasonal distribution of the temperature and precipitation changes. While the temperature changes in high northern latitudes and in the North Atlantic region are dominated by winter changes, the largest temperature increases in most other land regions are seen in spring. Smallest changes over land are found during the summer months. Our model simulations also demonstrate that the temperature and precipitation change patterns for different intensifications of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation are not linear. The extent of the transitions varies, and local non-linearities influence the amplitude of the annual mean response as well as the response in different seasons. Implications for the interpretation of paleo-records are discussed. (orig.)

  11. Gendering Globalization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Siim, Birte

    2009-01-01

    The current global financial situation bluntly and brutally brings home the fact that the global and local are closely connected in times of opportunity as well as crises. The articles in this issue of Asia Insights are about ontra-action between Asia, particularly China, and the Nordic countries...

  12. Developing Globalization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Annette Skovsted

    2017-01-01

    This chapter is the first qualitative micro case study of one aspect of globalization: personal networks as a concrete outcome of development assistance spending. The empirical findings related in this paper present circumstantial evidence that Japanese foreign aid has contributed to globalization...

  13. Global Uddannelse

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Niels Rosendal

    Antologien handler om "demokratiproblemer i den globale sammenhæng" (del I) og "demokratiproblemer i uddannelse og for de offentligt ansatte" (del II), bundet sammen af et mellemstykke, der rækker ud mod begge poler både det globale og det lokale ved at knytte det til forholdet mellem marked...

  14. Extended season for northern butterflies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karlsson, Bengt

    2014-07-01

    Butterflies are like all insects in that they are temperature sensitive and a changing climate with higher temperatures might effect their phenology. Several studies have found support for earlier flight dates among the investigated species. A comparative study with data from a citizen science project, including 66 species of butterflies in Sweden, was undertaken, and the result confirms that most butterfly species now fly earlier during the season. This is especially evident for butterflies overwintering as adults or as pupae. However, the advancement in phenology is correlated with flight date, and some late season species show no advancement or have even postponed their flight dates and are now flying later in the season. The results also showed that latitude had a strong effect on the adult flight date, and most of the investigated species showed significantly later flights towards the north. Only some late flying species showed an opposite trend, flying earlier in the north. A majority of the investigated species in this study showed a general response to temperature and advanced their flight dates with warmer temperatures (on average they advanced their flight dates by 3.8 days/°C), although not all species showed this response. In essence, a climate with earlier springs and longer growing seasons seems not to change the appearance patterns in a one-way direction. We now see butterflies on the wings both earlier and later in the season and some consequences of these patterns are discussed. So far, studies have concentrated mostly on early season butterfly-plant interactions but also late season studies are needed for a better understanding of long-term population consequences.

  15. Global Mindsets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Global Mindsets: Exploration and Perspectives seeks to tackle a topic that is relatively new in research and practice, and is considered by many to be critical for firms seeking to conduct global business. It argues that multiple mindsets exist (across and within organizations), that they operate...... in a global context, and that they are dynamic and undergo change and action. Part of the mindset(s) may depend upon place, situation and context where individuals and organizations operate. The book will examine the notion of "mindset" is situational and dynamic, especially in a global setting, why...... it is important for future scholars and managers and how it could be conceptualized. Global Mindsets: Exploration and Perspectives is split into two major sections; the first examines where the literature currently is with respect to the knowledge in the field and what conceptual frameworks guide the thinking...

  16. Global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    Canada's Green Plan strategy for dealing with global warming is being implemented as a multidepartmental partnership involving all Canadians and the international community. Many of the elements of this strategy are built on an existing base of activities predating the Green Plan. Elements of the strategy include programs to limit emissions of greenhouse gases, such as initiatives to encourage more energy-efficient practices and development of alternate fuel sources; studies and policy developments to help Canadians prepare and adapt to climate change; research on the global warming phenomenon; and stimulation of international action on global warming, including obligations arising out of the Framework Convention on Climate Change. All the program elements have been approved, funded, and announced. Major achievements to date are summarized, including improvements in the Energy Efficiency Act, studies on the socioeconomic impacts of global warming, and participation in monitoring networks. Milestones associated with the remaining global warming initiatives are listed

  17. Interval Coded Scoring: a toolbox for interpretable scoring systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lieven Billiet

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Over the last decades, clinical decision support systems have been gaining importance. They help clinicians to make effective use of the overload of available information to obtain correct diagnoses and appropriate treatments. However, their power often comes at the cost of a black box model which cannot be interpreted easily. This interpretability is of paramount importance in a medical setting with regard to trust and (legal responsibility. In contrast, existing medical scoring systems are easy to understand and use, but they are often a simplified rule-of-thumb summary of previous medical experience rather than a well-founded system based on available data. Interval Coded Scoring (ICS connects these two approaches, exploiting the power of sparse optimization to derive scoring systems from training data. The presented toolbox interface makes this theory easily applicable to both small and large datasets. It contains two possible problem formulations based on linear programming or elastic net. Both allow to construct a model for a binary classification problem and establish risk profiles that can be used for future diagnosis. All of this requires only a few lines of code. ICS differs from standard machine learning through its model consisting of interpretable main effects and interactions. Furthermore, insertion of expert knowledge is possible because the training can be semi-automatic. This allows end users to make a trade-off between complexity and performance based on cross-validation results and expert knowledge. Additionally, the toolbox offers an accessible way to assess classification performance via accuracy and the ROC curve, whereas the calibration of the risk profile can be evaluated via a calibration curve. Finally, the colour-coded model visualization has particular appeal if one wants to apply ICS manually on new observations, as well as for validation by experts in the specific application domains. The validity and applicability

  18. Climate model biases in seasonality of continental water storage revealed by satellite gravimetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swenson, Sean; Milly, P.C.D.

    2006-01-01

    Satellite gravimetric observations of monthly changes in continental water storage are compared with outputs from five climate models. All models qualitatively reproduce the global pattern of annual storage amplitude, and the seasonal cycle of global average storage is reproduced well, consistent with earlier studies. However, global average agreements mask systematic model biases in low latitudes. Seasonal extrema of low‐latitude, hemispheric storage generally occur too early in the models, and model‐specific errors in amplitude of the low‐latitude annual variations are substantial. These errors are potentially explicable in terms of neglected or suboptimally parameterized water stores in the land models and precipitation biases in the climate models.

  19. Genetic relationships among Body condition score, Body weight, Milk yield and Fertility in Dairy Cows

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berry, D.P.; Buckley, F.; Dillon, P.; Evans, R.D.; Rath, M.; Veerkamp, R.F.

    2003-01-01

    Genetic (co)variances between body condition score (BCS), body weight (BW), milk production, and fertility-related traits were estimated. The data analyzed included 8591 multiparous Holstein-Friesian cows with records for BCS, BW, milk production, and/or fertility from 78 seasonal calving

  20. Assessing Hourly Precipitation Forecast Skill with the Fractions Skill Score

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Bin; Zhang, Bo

    2018-02-01

    Statistical methods for category (yes/no) forecasts, such as the Threat Score, are typically used in the verification of precipitation forecasts. However, these standard methods are affected by the so-called "double-penalty" problem caused by slight displacements in either space or time with respect to the observations. Spatial techniques have recently been developed to help solve this problem. The fractions skill score (FSS), a neighborhood spatial verification method, directly compares the fractional coverage of events in windows surrounding the observations and forecasts. We applied the FSS to hourly precipitation verification by taking hourly forecast products from the GRAPES (Global/Regional Assimilation Prediction System) regional model and quantitative precipitation estimation products from the National Meteorological Information Center of China during July and August 2016, and investigated the difference between these results and those obtained with the traditional category score. We found that the model spin-up period affected the assessment of stability. Systematic errors had an insignificant role in the fraction Brier score and could be ignored. The dispersion of observations followed a diurnal cycle and the standard deviation of the forecast had a similar pattern to the reference maximum of the fraction Brier score. The coefficient of the forecasts and the observations is similar to the FSS; that is, the FSS may be a useful index that can be used to indicate correlation. Compared with the traditional skill score, the FSS has obvious advantages in distinguishing differences in precipitation time series, especially in the assessment of heavy rainfall.

  1. Sub-seasonal-to-seasonal Reservoir Inflow Forecast using Bayesian Hierarchical Hidden Markov Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukhopadhyay, S.; Arumugam, S.

    2017-12-01

    Sub-seasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) (15-90 days) streamflow forecasting is an emerging area of research that provides seamless information for reservoir operation from weather time scales to seasonal time scales. From an operational perspective, sub-seasonal inflow forecasts are highly valuable as these enable water managers to decide short-term releases (15-30 days), while holding water for seasonal needs (e.g., irrigation and municipal supply) and to meet end-of-the-season target storage at a desired level. We propose a Bayesian Hierarchical Hidden Markov Model (BHHMM) to develop S2S inflow forecasts for the Tennessee Valley Area (TVA) reservoir system. Here, the hidden states are predicted by relevant indices that influence the inflows at S2S time scale. The hidden Markov model also captures the both spatial and temporal hierarchy in predictors that operate at S2S time scale with model parameters being estimated as a posterior distribution using a Bayesian framework. We present our work in two steps, namely single site model and multi-site model. For proof of concept, we consider inflows to Douglas Dam, Tennessee, in the single site model. For multisite model we consider reservoirs in the upper Tennessee valley. Streamflow forecasts are issued and updated continuously every day at S2S time scale. We considered precipitation forecasts obtained from NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) GCM as predictors for developing S2S streamflow forecasts along with relevant indices for predicting hidden states. Spatial dependence of the inflow series of reservoirs are also preserved in the multi-site model. To circumvent the non-normality of the data, we consider the HMM in a Generalized Linear Model setting. Skill of the proposed approach is tested using split sample validation against a traditional multi-site canonical correlation model developed using the same set of predictors. From the posterior distribution of the inflow forecasts, we also highlight different system behavior

  2. Seasonal variation in sports participation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schüttoff, Ute; Pawlowski, Tim

    2018-02-01

    This study explores indicators describing socio-demographics, sports participation characteristics and motives which are associated with variation in sports participation across seasons. Data were drawn from the German Socio-Economic Panel which contains detailed information on the sports behaviour of adults in Germany. Overall, two different measures of seasonal variation are developed and used as dependent variables in our regression models. The first variable measures the coefficient of (seasonal) variation in sport-related energy expenditure per week. The second variable measures whether activity drops below the threshold as defined by the World Health Organization (WHO). Results suggest that the organisational setting, the intensity and number of sports practised, and the motive for participation are strongly correlated with the variation measures used. For example, both, participation in a sports club and a commercial facility, are associated with reduced seasonal variation and a significantly higher probability of participating at a volume above the WHO threshold across all seasons. These findings give some impetus for policymaking and the planning of sports programmes as well as future research directions.

  3. Exploring a Source of Uneven Score Equity across the Test Score Range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huggins-Manley, Anne Corinne; Qiu, Yuxi; Penfield, Randall D.

    2018-01-01

    Score equity assessment (SEA) refers to an examination of population invariance of equating across two or more subpopulations of test examinees. Previous SEA studies have shown that score equity may be present for examinees scoring at particular test score ranges but absent for examinees scoring at other score ranges. No studies to date have…

  4. SHADOW GLOBALIZATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Larissa Mihaylovna Kapitsa

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The article reviews some development trends brought about by globalization, particularly, a growing tax evasion and tax avoidance, an expansion of illicit financial flows and the proliferation of a global criminal network. The author draws attention to some new phenomena, particularly, cosmopolitanization of some parts of national elites and a deepening divide between national interests and the private interests of elites as a consequence of financial globalization. Modern mass media, both Russian and foreign, tend to interpret globalization processes exclusively from the position of conformism, and for some of the researchers globalization became the "sacred cow", which one may only worship. Critical analysis of the processes associated with globalization is given a hostile reception. In response to criticism of globalization, one can hear the very same argument: "globalization in inevitable!" Such a state of affairs, the very least, causes perplexity. Some of the world development trends been observed over the past years raise serious concerns about the security and welfare of the peoples of the world. One of such trends has been the globalization of shadow economic activities. Methods of fight against the criminal economy been applied in international practice can be grouped into: 1 punitive enforcement (or criminal-legal methods and 2 socio-economic methods. As the results of various research works evidence punitive enforcement methods not supported by socio-economic measures not effective enough. Toughening the control over criminal economic activities in the absence of preventive and corrective actions aiming to neutralize institutional, social and other stimuli facilitating criminalization of economic activities can result in large losses of financial assets in the form of mass capital flight

  5. Shadow Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Larissa Mihaylovna Kapitsa

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The article reviews some development trends brought about by globalization, particularly, a growing tax evasion and tax avoidance, an expansion of illicit financial flows and the proliferation of a global criminal network. The author draws attention to some new phenomena, particularly, cosmopolitanization of some parts of national elites and a deepening divide between national interests and the private interests of elites as a consequence of financial globalization. Modern mass media, both Russian and foreign, tend to interpret globalization processes exclusively from the position of conformism, and for some of the researchers globalization became the "sacred cow", which one may only worship. Critical analysis of the processes associated with globalization is given a hostile reception. In response to criticism of globalization, one can hear the very same argument: "globalization in inevitable!" Such a state of affairs, the very least, causes perplexity. Some of the world development trends been observed over the past years raise serious concerns about the security and welfare of the peoples of the world. One of such trends has been the globalization of shadow economic activities. Methods of fight against the criminal economy been applied in international practice can be grouped into: 1 punitive enforcement (or criminal-legal methods and 2 socio-economic methods. As the results of various research works evidence punitive enforcement methods not supported by socio-economic measures not effective enough. Toughening the control over criminal economic activities in the absence of preventive and corrective actions aiming to neutralize institutional, social and other stimuli facilitating criminalization of economic activities can result in large losses of financial assets in the form of mass capital flight

  6. Global scenarios and trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    The 21st century brings with it a number of disturbing challenges. They may even threaten to disrupt world order. Many agree the most critical and urgent challenge of all confronting human kind today is climate change. Global warming has reached a level which can trigger drastic shifts in world weather. There is convincing evidence to show that global warming is significantly attributed to mans own activities. If man is responsible for the warming of the planet, then only man can help stop global warming. Only man can reverse climate change. Climate change has the power to literally destruct the world. The adverse effects of global climate change are increasingly evident from the frequency and ferocity of natural disasters like the recent severe drought and flood in Queensland, Australia; the prolonged drought in East Africa; the destructive typhoon Nargis in Myanmar; the terrifying hurricane Katrina which brought New Orleans to its knees; the disastrous Mississippi flood and killer cyclones in USA and the out of season drought and flood in the Yangtze river basin. The list does not end there. Dr. R. K. Pachauri, Chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in his lecture on 28 April 2011 at UNITEN, entitled Fukushima, Energy and Climate Change reaffirmed that the warming of the earths climate system is unequivocal. That climate change is mans common enemy is no longer in doubt. This is the reason why many see climate change as the single most important driver of the expanding global interest in green technology and a low carbon economy. (author)

  7. Retrospective assessment of seasonal allergic symptoms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bødtger, Uffe; Poulsen, L K; Malling, H-J

    2003-01-01

    in a double-blind study. Assessment of severity of symptoms from the nose, eyes and lungs were performed daily during the season 2000, and post-seasonally 6 months after the season in 1999 and 2000. A four-point verbal descriptor scale (VDS-4) was used at all occasions. A mean in-seasonal symptom rating...

  8. In-season monitoring of hip and groin strength, health and function in elite youth soccer: Implementing an early detection and management strategy over two consecutive seasons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wollin, Martin; Thorborg, Kristian; Welvaert, Marijke; Pizzari, Tania

    2018-03-14

    The primary purpose of this study was to describe an early detection and management strategy when monitoring in-season hip and groin strength, health and function in soccer. Secondly to compare pre-season to in-season test results. Longitudinal cohort study. Twenty-seven elite male youth soccer players (age: 15.07±0.73years) volunteered to participate in the study. Monitoring tests included: adductor strength, adductor/abductor strength ratio and hip and groin outcome scores (HAGOS). Data were recorded at pre-season and at 22 monthly intervals in-season. Thresholds for alerts to initiate further investigations were defined as any of the following: adductor strength reductions >15%, adductor/abductor strength ratio time-point one (ptime-loss were classified minimal or mild. In-season monitoring aimed at early detection and management of hip and groin strength, health and function appears promising. Hip and groin strength, health and function improved quickly from pre-season to in-season in a high-risk population for ongoing hip and groin problems. Copyright © 2018 Sports Medicine Australia. All rights reserved.

  9. Global Rome

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Is 21st-century Rome a global city? Is it part of Europe's core or periphery? This volume examines the “real city” beyond Rome's historical center, exploring the diversity and challenges of life in neighborhoods affected by immigration, neoliberalism, formal urban planning, and grassroots social...... movements. The contributors engage with themes of contemporary urban studies–the global city, the self-made city, alternative modernities, capital cities and nations, urban change from below, and sustainability. Global Rome serves as a provocative introduction to the Eternal City and makes an original...

  10. Late Cretaceous seasonal ocean variability from the Arctic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, Andrew; Kemp, Alan E S; Pike, Jennifer

    2009-07-09

    The modern Arctic Ocean is regarded as a barometer of global change and amplifier of global warming and therefore records of past Arctic change are critical for palaeoclimate reconstruction. Little is known of the state of the Arctic Ocean in the greenhouse period of the Late Cretaceous epoch (65-99 million years ago), yet records from such times may yield important clues to Arctic Ocean behaviour in near-future warmer climates. Here we present a seasonally resolved Cretaceous sedimentary record from the Alpha ridge of the Arctic Ocean. This palaeo-sediment trap provides new insight into the workings of the Cretaceous marine biological carbon pump. Seasonal primary production was dominated by diatom algae but was not related to upwelling as was previously hypothesized. Rather, production occurred within a stratified water column, involving specially adapted species in blooms resembling those of the modern North Pacific subtropical gyre, or those indicated for the Mediterranean sapropels. With increased CO(2) levels and warming currently driving increased stratification in the global ocean, this style of production that is adapted to stratification may become more widespread. Our evidence for seasonal diatom production and flux testify to an ice-free summer, but thin accumulations of terrigenous sediment within the diatom ooze are consistent with the presence of intermittent sea ice in the winter, supporting a wide body of evidence for low temperatures in the Late Cretaceous Arctic Ocean, rather than recent suggestions of a 15 degrees C mean annual temperature at this time.

  11. Seasonality in ocean microbial communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giovannoni, Stephen J; Vergin, Kevin L

    2012-02-10

    Ocean warming occurs every year in seasonal cycles that can help us to understand long-term responses of plankton to climate change. Rhythmic seasonal patterns of microbial community turnover are revealed when high-resolution measurements of microbial plankton diversity are applied to samples collected in lengthy time series. Seasonal cycles in microbial plankton are complex, but the expansion of fixed ocean stations monitoring long-term change and the development of automated instrumentation are providing the time-series data needed to understand how these cycles vary across broad geographical scales. By accumulating data and using predictive modeling, we gain insights into changes that will occur as the ocean surface continues to warm and as the extent and duration of ocean stratification increase. These developments will enable marine scientists to predict changes in geochemical cycles mediated by microbial communities and to gauge their broader impacts.

  12. Dutch validation of the low anterior resection syndrome score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hupkens, B J P; Breukink, S O; Olde Reuver Of Briel, C; Tanis, P J; de Noo, M E; van Duijvendijk, P; van Westreenen, H L; Dekker, J W T; Chen, T Y T; Juul, T

    2018-04-21

    The aim of this study was to validate the Dutch translation of the low anterior resection syndrome (LARS) score in a population of Dutch rectal cancer patients. Patients who underwent surgery for rectal cancer received the LARS score questionnaire, a single quality of life (QoL) category question and the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) QLQ-C30 questionnaire. A subgroup of patients received the LARS score twice to assess the test-retest reliability. A total of 165 patients were included in the analysis, identified in six Dutch centres. The response rate was 62.0%. The percentage of patients who reported 'major LARS' was 59.4%. There was a high proportion of patients with a perfect or moderate fit between the QoL category question and the LARS score, showing a good convergent validity. The LARS score was able to discriminate between patients with or without neoadjuvant radiotherapy (P = 0.003), between total and partial mesorectal excision (P = 0.008) and between age groups (P = 0.039). There was a statistically significant association between a higher LARS score and an impaired function on the global QoL subscale and the physical, role, emotional and social functioning subscales of the EORTC QLQ-C30 questionnaire. The test-retest reliability of the LARS score was good, with an interclass correlation coefficient of 0.79. The good psychometric properties of the Dutch version of the LARS score are comparable overall to the earlier validations in other countries. Therefore, the Dutch translation can be considered to be a valid tool for assessing LARS in Dutch rectal cancer patients. Colorectal Disease © 2018 The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland.

  13. Global Managers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barakat, Livia L.; Lorenz, Melanie P.; Ramsey, Jase R.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: – The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of cultural intelligence (CQ) on the job performance of global managers. Design/methodology/approach: – In total, 332 global managers were surveyed from multinational companies operating in Brazil. The mediating effect of job...... satisfaction was tested on the CQ-job performance relationship. Findings: – The findings suggest that job satisfaction transmits the effect of CQ to job performance, such that global managers high in CQ exhibit more job satisfaction in an international setting, and therefore perform better at their jobs....... Practical implications: – Results imply that global managers should increase their CQ in order to improve their job satisfaction and ultimately perform better in an international context. Originality/value: – The authors make three primary contributions to the international business literature. First...

  14. Globalization & technology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Narula, Rajneesh

    Technology and globalization are interdependent processes. Globalization has a fundamental influence on the creation and diffusion of technology, which, in turn, affects the interdependence of firms and locations. This volume examines the international aspect of this interdependence at two levels...... of innovation" understanding of learning. Narula and Smith reconcile an important paradox. On the one hand, locations and firms are increasingly interdependent through supranational organisations, regional integration, strategic alliances, and the flow of investments, technologies, ideas and people...

  15. Another globalization

    OpenAIRE

    Prof. Ph.D. Ion Bucur

    2007-01-01

    Finding the anachronisms and the failures of the present globalization, as well as the vitiated system of world-wide government, has stimulated the debates regarding the identification of a more equitable form of globalization to favor the acceleration of the economic increase and the reduction of poverty.The deficiency of the present international economic institutions, especially the lack of transparency and democratic responsibility, claims back with acuteness the reformation of ...

  16. Gendered globalization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Milwertz, Cecilia Nathansen; Cai, Yiping

    2017-01-01

    Both the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Nordic countries (Sweden, Iceland, Denmark, Norway and Finland) view gender equality as a social justice issue and are politically committed towards achieving gender equality nationally and internationally. Since China has taken a proactive position...... on globalization and global governance, gender equality is possibly an area that China may wish to explore in collaboration with the Nordic countries....

  17. Global warming

    CERN Document Server

    Hulme, M

    1998-01-01

    Global warming-like deforestation, the ozone hole and the loss of species- has become one of the late 20the century icons of global environmental damage. The threat, is not the reality, of such a global climate change has motivated governments. businesses and environmental organisations, to take serious action ot try and achieve serious control of the future climate. This culminated last December in Kyoto in the agreement for legally-binding climate protocol. In this series of three lectures I will provide a perspective on the phenomenon of global warming that accepts the scientific basis for our concern, but one that also recognises the dynamic interaction between climate and society that has always exited The future will be no different. The challenge of global warning is not to pretend it is not happening (as with some pressure groups), nor to pretend it threatens global civilisation (as with other pressure groups), and it is not even a challenge to try and stop it from happening-we are too far down the ro...

  18. Trends in land surface phenology and atmospheric CO2 seasonality in the Northern Hemisphere terrestrial ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonsamo, A.; Chen, J. M.

    2017-12-01

    Northern terrestrial ecosystems have shown global warming-induced advances in start, delays in end, and thus increased lengths of growing season and gross photosynthesis in recent decades. The tradeoffs between seasonal dynamics of two opposing fluxes, CO2 uptake through photosynthesis and release through respiration, determine the influence of the terrestrial ecosystems on the atmospheric CO2 concentration and 13C/12C isotope ratio seasonality. Atmospheric CO2 and 13C/12C seasonality is controlled by vegetation phenology, but is not identical because growth will typically commence some time before and terminate some time after the net carbon exchange changes sign in spring and autumn, respectively. Here, we use 34-year satellite normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) observations to determine how changes in vegetation productivity and phenology affect both the atmospheric CO2 and 13C/12C seasonality. Differences and similarities in recent trends of CO2 and 13C/12C seasonality and vegetation phenology will be discussed. Furthermore, we use the NDVI observations, and atmospheric CO2 and 13C/12C data to show the trends and variability of the timing of peak season plant activity. Preliminary results show that the peak season plant activity of the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical terrestrial ecosystems is shifting towards spring, largely in response to the warming-induced advance of the start of growing season. Besides, the spring-ward shift of the peak plant activity is contributing the most to the increasing peak season productivity. In other words, earlier start of growing season is highly linked to earlier arrival of peak of season and higher NDVI. Changes in the timing of peak season plant activity are expected to disrupt the synchrony of biotic interaction and exert strong biophysical feedbacks on climate by modifying the surface albedo and energy budget.

  19. Out-of-season recollection of drug use for seasonal IgE-mediated rhinitis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bødtger, Uffe; Malling, Hans-Jørgen; Poulsen, Lars K

    2005-01-01

    in a double-blind study. Drug use was recorded daily during the season 2000 and out-seasonally 6 months after the seasons 1999 and 2000. The mean daily drug use was transformed into a 4-point categorical scale for simplicity and was calculated for the out-seasonal rating and for 6 in-seasonal periods...

  20. Consequences of cool-season drought induced plant mortality to Chihuahuan Desert grassland ecosystem and soil respiration dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Global climate change is predicted to increase the severity and frequency of cool-season drought across the arid Southwest US. We quantified net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange (NEE), ecosystem respiration (Reco), and gross ecosystem photosynthesis (GEP) in response to interannual seasonal precip...

  1. Linking small-scale circulation dynamics with large-scale seasonal production (phytoplankton) in the Southern Ocean

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Nicholson, S

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the seasonal and intra-seasonal (daily to weekly) changes of the upper ocean and the impact on the primary production in the Southern Ocean is key to better understanding the sensitivities of the global carbon cycle....

  2. Seasonality of cardiovascular risk factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marti-Soler, Helena; Gubelmann, Cédric; Aeschbacher, Stefanie

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To assess the seasonality of cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) in a large set of population-based studies. METHODS: Cross-sectional data from 24 population-based studies from 15 countries, with a total sample size of 237 979 subjects. CVRFs included Body Mass Index (BMI) and waist...

  3. Mood disorders and season ofpresentation

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Srarisrical Manual of Menral Disorders (DSM-III-R)), were looked at, and no attempt was made to delineate the occurrence of specific mood disorders. Reviewing publications on the association between season and its impact on mood, the findings are generally inconsistent but highly suggestive of an association.' However ...

  4. Creation of Norms for the Purpose of Global Talent Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hedricks, Cynthia A.; Robie, Chet; Harnisher, John V.

    2008-01-01

    Personality scores were used to construct three databases of global norms. The composition of the three databases varied according to percentage of cases by global region, occupational group, applicant status, and gender of the job candidate. Comparison of personality scores across the three norms databases revealed that the magnitude of the…

  5. Prediction uncertainty in seasonal partial duration series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Peter Funder; Rosbjerg, Dan

    1991-01-01

    In order to obtain a good description of the exceedances in a partial duration series it is often necessary to divide the year into a number (2-4) of seasons. Hereby a stationary exceedance distribution can be maintained within each season. This type of seasonal models may, however, not be suitable...... for prediction purposes due to the large number of parameters required. In the particular case with exponentially distributed exceedances and Poissonian occurrence times the precision of the T year event estimator has been thoroughly examined considering both seasonal and nonseasonal models. The two......-seasonal probability density function of the T year event estimator has been deduced and used in the assessment of the precision of approximate moments. The nonseasonal approach covered both a total omission of seasonality by pooling data from different flood seasons and a discarding of nonsignificant season(s) before...

  6. Linkage between company scores and stock returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saban Celik

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Previous studies on company scores conducted at firm-level, generally concluded that there exists a positive relation between company scores and stock returns. Motivated by these studies, this study examines the relationship between company scores (Corporate Governance Score, Economic Score, Environmental Score, and Social Score and stock returns, both at portfolio-level analysis and firm-level cross-sectional regressions. In portfolio-level analysis, stocks are sorted based on each company scores and quintile portfolio are formed with different levels of company scores. Then, existence and significance of raw returns and risk-adjusted returns difference between portfolios with the extreme company scores (portfolio 10 and portfolio 1 is tested. In addition, firm-level cross-sectional regression is performed to examine the significance of company scores effects with control variables. While portfolio-level analysis results indicate that there is no significant relation between company scores and stock returns; firm-level analysis indicates that economic, environmental, and social scores have effect on stock returns, however, significance and direction of these effects change, depending on the included control variables in the cross-sectional regression.

  7. Sub-Seasonal Climate Forecast Rodeo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, R. S.; Nowak, K.; Cifelli, R.; Brekke, L. D.

    2017-12-01

    The Bureau of Reclamation, as the largest water wholesaler and the second largest producer of hydropower in the United States, benefits from skillful forecasts of future water availability. Researchers, water managers from local, regional, and federal agencies, and groups such as the Western States Water Council agree that improved precipitation and temperature forecast information at the sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescale is an area with significant potential benefit to water management. In response, and recognizing NOAA's leadership in forecasting, Reclamation has partnered with NOAA to develop and implement a real-time S2S forecasting competition. For a year, solvers are submitting forecasts of temperature and precipitation for weeks 3&4 and 5&6 every two weeks on a 1x1 degree grid for the 17 western state domain where Reclamation operates. The competition began on April 18, 2017 and the final real-time forecast is due April 3, 2018. Forecasts are evaluated once observational data become available using spatial anomaly correlation. Scores are posted on a competition leaderboard hosted by the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS). The leaderboard can be accessed at: https://www.drought.gov/drought/sub-seasonal-climate-forecast-rodeo. To be eligible for cash prizes - which total $800,000 - solvers must outperform two benchmark forecasts during the real-time competition as well as in a required 11-year hind-cast. To receive a prize, competitors must grant a non-exclusive license to practice their forecast technique and make it available as open source software. At approximately one quarter complete, there are teams outperforming the benchmarks in three of the four competition categories. With prestige and monetary incentives on the line, it is hoped that the competition will spur innovation of improved S2S forecasts through novel approaches, enhancements to established models, or otherwise. Additionally, the competition aims to raise

  8. Global Governance: Old and New Issues

    OpenAIRE

    Gary Clyde Hufbauer

    2008-01-01

    This paper opens with a short recollection of the Kiel Week Conference of 2002, recorded in a volume edited by Horst Siebert, titled Global Governance: An Architecture for the World Economy. Assess-ments and forecasts made at that time are scored against subsequent developments. Security relations between the great powers are asserted to define the space for global economic governance. Over the next thirty years, the security context is not likely to provide the same inspiration for global ec...

  9. Seasonal versus perennial immunotherapy: evaluation after three years of treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz Lejarazu, D; Bernaola, G; Fernández, E; Audícana, M; Ventas, P; Martín, S; Fernández de Corres, L

    1993-01-01

    We have performed a comparative study to evaluate seasonal and perennial schedules after 3 years of immunotherapy. Sixty patients suffering from rhinitis and/or asthma due to grass pollen sensitization were randomly allocated to receive a semi-depot extract of Phleum pratense according to a perennial or seasonal schedule. The last year of the study, 14 patients were recruited as a control group without immunotherapy. The cumulative dose was 602 BU in the perennial group and 372 BU in the seasonal group. The frequency and severity of side-effects were similar and very low in both treated groups. The IgE level was significantly lower after perennial immunotherapy at the end of the first 2 years. A seasonal decrease in specific IgG levels was observed in patients who interrupted immunotherapy, while this was not observed in patients under the perennial schedule. Symptoms and medication scores did not show differences between groups. Nevertheless, we found a significant difference between treated patients and the control group.

  10. Global Issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seitz, J.L.

    2001-10-15

    Global Issues is an introduction to the nature and background of some of the central issues - economic, social, political, environmental - of modern times. This new edition of this text has been fully updated throughout and features expanded sections on issues such as global warming, biotechnology, and energy. Fully updated throughout and features expanded sections on issues such as global warming, biotechnology, and energy. An introduction to the nature and background of some of the central issues - economic, social, political, environmental - of modern times. Covers a range of perspectives on a variety of societies, developed and developing. Extensively illustrated with diagrams and photographs, contains guides to further reading, media, and internet resources, and includes suggestions for discussion and studying the material. (author)

  11. Global Inequality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Niño-Zarazúa, Miguel; Roope, Laurence; Tarp, Finn

    2017-01-01

    This paper measures trends in global interpersonal inequality during 1975–2010 using data from the most recent version of the World Income Inequality Database (WIID). The picture that emerges using ‘absolute,’ and even ‘centrist’ measures of inequality, is very different from the results obtained...... using standard ‘relative’ inequality measures such as the Gini coefficient or Coefficient of Variation. Relative global inequality has declined substantially over the decades. In contrast, ‘absolute’ inequality, as captured by the Standard Deviation and Absolute Gini, has increased considerably...... and unabated. Like these ‘absolute’ measures, our ‘centrist’ inequality indicators, the Krtscha measure and an intermediate Gini, also register a pronounced increase in global inequality, albeit, in the case of the latter, with a decline during 2005 to 2010. A critical question posed by our findings is whether...

  12. Global Inequality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Niño-Zarazúa, Miguel; Roope, Laurence; Tarp, Finn

    2017-01-01

    This paper measures trends in global interpersonal inequality during 1975–2010 using data from the most recent version of the World Income Inequality Database (WIID). The picture that emerges using ‘absolute,’ and even ‘centrist’ measures of inequality, is very different from the results obtained...... by centrist measures such as the Krtscha, could return to 1975 levels, at today's domestic and global per capita income levels, but this would require quite dramatic structural reforms to reduce domestic inequality levels in most countries....... using standard ‘relative’ inequality measures such as the Gini coefficient or Coefficient of Variation. Relative global inequality has declined substantially over the decades. In contrast, ‘absolute’ inequality, as captured by the Standard Deviation and Absolute Gini, has increased considerably...

  13. Global Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindberg Christensen, Lars; Russo, P.

    2009-05-01

    IYA2009 is a global collaboration between almost 140 nations and more than 50 international organisations sharing the same vision. Besides the common brand, mission, vision and goals, IAU established eleven cornerstones programmes to support the different IYA2009 stakeholder to organize events, activities under a common umbrella. These are global activities centred on specific themes and are aligned with IYA2009's main goals. Whether it is the support and promotion of women in astronomy, the preservation of dark-sky sites around the world or educating and explaining the workings of the Universe to millions, the eleven Cornerstones are key elements in the success of IYA2009. However, the process of implementing global projects across cultural boundaries is challenging and needs central coordination to preserve the pre-established goals. During this talk we will examine the ups and downs of coordinating such a project and present an overview of the principal achievements for the Cornerstones so far.

  14. Global rotation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosquist, K.

    1980-01-01

    Global rotation in cosmological models is defined on an observational basis. A theorem is proved saying that, for rigid motion, the global rotation is equal to the ordinary local vorticity. The global rotation is calculated in the space-time homogeneous class III models, with Godel's model as a special case. It is shown that, with the exception of Godel's model, the rotation in these models becomes infinite for finite affine parameter values. In some directions the rotation changes sign and becomes infinite in a direction opposite to the local vorticity. The points of infinite rotation are identified as conjugate points along the null geodesics. The physical interpretation of the infinite rotation is discussed, and a comparison with the behaviour of the area distance at conjugate points is given. (author)

  15. Cardiovascular risk scores for coronary atherosclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yalcin, Murat; Kardesoglu, Ejder; Aparci, Mustafa; Isilak, Zafer; Uz, Omer; Yiginer, Omer; Ozmen, Namik; Cingozbay, Bekir Yilmaz; Uzun, Mehmet; Cebeci, Bekir Sitki

    2012-10-01

    The objective of this study was to compare frequently used cardiovascular risk scores in predicting the presence of coronary artery disease (CAD) and 3-vessel disease. In 350 consecutive patients (218 men and 132 women) who underwent coronary angiography, the cardiovascular risk level was determined using the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), the Modified Framingham Risk Score (MFRS), the Prospective Cardiovascular Münster (PROCAM) score, and the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE). The area under the curve for receiver operating characteristic curves showed that FRS had more predictive value than the other scores for CAD (area under curve, 0.76, P MFRS, PROCAM, and SCORE) may predict the presence and severity of coronary atherosclerosis.The FRS had better predictive value than the other scores.

  16. Another globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prof. Ph.D. Ion Bucur

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Finding the anachronisms and the failures of the present globalization, as well as the vitiated system of world-wide government, has stimulated the debates regarding the identification of a more equitable form of globalization to favor the acceleration of the economic increase and the reduction of poverty.The deficiency of the present international economic institutions, especially the lack of transparency and democratic responsibility, claims back with acuteness the reformation of the architecture of the international institutional system and the promotion of those economical policies which must ensure the stability world-wide economy and the amelioration of the international equity.

  17. Measuring Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    Andersen, Torben M.; Herbertsson, Tryggvi Thor

    2003-01-01

    The multivariate technique of factor analysis is used to combine several indicators of economic integration and international transactions into a single measure or index of globalization. The index is an alternative to the simple measure of openness based on trade, and it produces a ranking of countries over time for 23 OECD countries. Ireland is ranked as the most globalized country during the 1990?s, while the UK was at the top during the 1980?s. Some of the most notable changes in the rank...

  18. Going global

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meade, W.; Poirier, J.L.

    1992-01-01

    This article discusses the global market for independent power projects and the increased competition and strategic alliances that are occurring to take advantage of the increasing demand. The topics of the article include the amount of involvement of US companies in the global market, the forces driving the market toward independent power, markets in the United Kingdom, North America, Turkey, Central America, South America, the Caribbean, Europe, the Federal Republic of Germany, India, the former Eastern European countries, Asia and the Pacific nations, and niche markets

  19. Modeling seasonal surface temperature variations in secondary tropical dry forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Sen; Sanchez-Azofeifa, Arturo

    2017-10-01

    Secondary tropical dry forests (TDFs) provide important ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration, biodiversity conservation, and nutrient cycle regulation. However, their biogeophysical processes at the canopy-atmosphere interface remain unknown, limiting our understanding of how this endangered ecosystem influences, and responds to the ongoing global warming. To facilitate future development of conservation policies, this study characterized the seasonal land surface temperature (LST) behavior of three successional stages (early, intermediate, and late) of a TDF, at the Santa Rosa National Park (SRNP), Costa Rica. A total of 38 Landsat-8 Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS) data and the Surface Reflectance (SR) product were utilized to model LST time series from July 2013 to July 2016 using a radiative transfer equation (RTE) algorithm. We further related the LST time series to seven vegetation indices which reflect different properties of TDFs, and soil moisture data obtained from a Wireless Sensor Network (WSN). Results showed that the LST in the dry season was 15-20 K higher than in the wet season at SRNP. We found that the early successional stages were about 6-8 K warmer than the intermediate successional stages and were 9-10 K warmer than the late successional stages in the middle of the dry season; meanwhile, a minimum LST difference (0-1 K) was observed at the end of the wet season. Leaf phenology and canopy architecture explained most LST variations in both dry and wet seasons. However, our analysis revealed that it is precipitation that ultimately determines the LST variations through both biogeochemical (leaf phenology) and biogeophysical processes (evapotranspiration) of the plants. Results of this study could help physiological modeling studies in secondary TDFs.

  20. Interobserver variability of the neurological optimality score

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Monincx, W. M.; Smolders-de Haas, H.; Bonsel, G. J.; Zondervan, H. A.

    1999-01-01

    To assess the interobserver reliability of the neurological optimality score. The neurological optimality score of 21 full term healthy, neurologically normal newborn infants was determined by two well trained observers. The interclass correlation coefficient was 0.31. Kappa for optimality (score of

  1. Semiparametric score level fusion: Gaussian copula approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Susyanyo, N.; Klaassen, C.A.J.; Veldhuis, Raymond N.J.; Spreeuwers, Lieuwe Jan

    2015-01-01

    Score level fusion is an appealing method for combining multi-algorithms, multi- representations, and multi-modality biometrics due to its simplicity. Often, scores are assumed to be independent, but even for dependent scores, accord- ing to the Neyman-Pearson lemma, the likelihood ratio is the

  2. An Objective Fluctuation Score for Parkinson's Disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horne, Malcolm K.; McGregor, Sarah; Bergquist, Filip

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Establishing the presence and severity of fluctuations is important in managing Parkinson’s Disease yet there is no reliable, objective means of doing this. In this study we have evaluated a Fluctuation Score derived from variations in dyskinesia and bradykinesia scores produced by an accelerometry based system. Methods The Fluctuation Score was produced by summing the interquartile range of bradykinesia scores and dyskinesia scores produced every 2 minutes between 0900-1800 for at least 6 days by the accelerometry based system and expressing it as an algorithm. Results This Score could distinguish between fluctuating and non-fluctuating patients with high sensitivity and selectivity and was significant lower following activation of deep brain stimulators. The scores following deep brain stimulation lay in a band just above the score separating fluctuators from non-fluctuators, suggesting a range representing adequate motor control. When compared with control subjects the score of newly diagnosed patients show a loss of fluctuation with onset of PD. The score was calculated in subjects whose duration of disease was known and this showed that newly diagnosed patients soon develop higher scores which either fall under or within the range representing adequate motor control or instead go on to develop more severe fluctuations. Conclusion The Fluctuation Score described here promises to be a useful tool for identifying patients whose fluctuations are progressing and may require therapeutic changes. It also shows promise as a useful research tool. Further studies are required to more accurately identify therapeutic targets and ranges. PMID:25928634

  3. Breaking of scored tablets : a review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Santen, E; Barends, D M; Frijlink, H W

    The literature was reviewed regarding advantages, problems and performance indicators of score lines. Scored tablets provide dose flexibility, ease of swallowing and may reduce the costs of medication. However, many patients are confronted with scored tablets that are broken unequally and with

  4. Validation of Automated Scoring of Science Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ou Lydia; Rios, Joseph A.; Heilman, Michael; Gerard, Libby; Linn, Marcia C.

    2016-01-01

    Constructed response items can both measure the coherence of student ideas and serve as reflective experiences to strengthen instruction. We report on new automated scoring technologies that can reduce the cost and complexity of scoring constructed-response items. This study explored the accuracy of c-rater-ML, an automated scoring engine…

  5. SPATIO-TEMPORAL ESTIMATION OF INTEGRATED WATER VAPOUR OVER THE MALAYSIAN PENINSULA DURING MONSOON SEASON

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Salihin

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides the precise information on spatial-temporal distribution of water vapour that was retrieved from Zenith Path Delay (ZPD which was estimated by Global Positioning System (GPS processing over the Malaysian Peninsular. A time series analysis of these ZPD and Integrated Water Vapor (IWV values was done to capture the characteristic on their seasonal variation during monsoon seasons. This study was found that the pattern and distribution of atmospheric water vapour over Malaysian Peninsular in whole four years periods were influenced by two inter-monsoon and two monsoon seasons which are First Inter-monsoon, Second Inter-monsoon, Southwest monsoon and Northeast monsoon.

  6. Seasonal body size reductions with warming covary with major body size gradients in arthropod species

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Horne, Curtis R.; Hirst, Andrew G.; Atkinson, David

    2017-01-01

    experience different developmental conditions. Yet, unlike other size patterns, these common seasonal temperature–size gradients have never been collectively analysed. We undertake the largest analysis to date of seasonal temperature-size gradients in multivoltine arthropods, including 102 aquatic...... and terrestrial species from 71 global locations. Adult size declines in warmer seasons in 86% of the species examined. Aquatic species show approximately 2.5-fold greater reduction in size per °C of warming than terrestrial species, supporting the hypothesis that greater oxygen limitation in water than in air...

  7. Global Games

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Bottenburg, Maarten

    2001-01-01

    Why is soccer the sport of choice in South America, while baseball has soared to popularity in the Carribean? How did cricket become India's national sport, while China is a stronghold of table tennis? In Global Games, Maarten van Bottenburg asserts that it is the 'hidden competition' of social and

  8. Going global?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fejerskov, Adam Moe; Rasmussen, Christel

    2016-01-01

    occurred at a more micro level. This article explores this issue by studying the international activities of Danish foundations. It finds that grant-making on global issues is increasing, and that several foundations have undergone transformations in their approach to grantmaking, making them surprisingly...

  9. Justice Globalism

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wilson, Erin; Steger, Manfred; Siracusa, Joseph; Battersby, Paul

    2014-01-01

    The pursuit of a global order founded on universal rules extends beyond economics into the normative spheres of law, politics and justice. Justice globalists claim universal principles applicable to all societies irrespective of religion or ideology. This view privileges human rights, democracy and

  10. The response of archaeal species to seasonal variables in a subtropical aerated soil: insight into the low abundant methanogens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Wei; Jiao, Na; Ma, Cenling; Fang, Sa; Phelps, Tommy J; Zhu, Ruixin; Zhang, Chuanlun

    2017-08-01

    Archaea are cosmopolitan in aerated soils around the world. While the dominance of Thaumarchaeota has been reported in most soils, the methanogens are recently found to be ubiquitous but with low abundances in the aerated soil globally. However, the seasonal changes of Archaea community in the aerated soils are still in the mist. In this study, we investigated the change of Archaea in the context of environmental variables over a period of 12 months in a subtropical soil on the Chongming Island, China. The results showed that Nitrososphaera spp. were the dominant archaeal population while the methanogens were in low proportions but highly diverse (including five genera: Methanobacterium, Methanocella, Methanosaeta, Methanosarcina, and Methanomassiliicoccus) in the aerated soil samples determined by high throughput sequencing. A total of 126 LSA correlations were found in the dataset including all the 72 archaeal OTUs and 8 environmental factors. A significance index defined as the pagerank score of each OTU divided by its relative abundance was used to evaluate the significance of each OTU. The results showed that five out of 17 methanogen OTUs were significantly positively correlated with temperature, suggesting those methanogens might increase with temperature rather than being dormant in the aerated soils. Given the metabolic response of methanogens to temperature under aerated soil conditions, their contribution to the global methane cycle warrants evaluation.

  11. Seasonality as a Parrondian game

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peacock-Lopez, Enrique, E-mail: epeacock@williams.edu [Department of Chemistry, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, 7701 Cape Town (South Africa)

    2011-08-15

    Switching strategies can be related to the so-called Parrondian games, where the alternation of two losing games yields a winning game. We consider two dynamics that by themselves yield undesirable behaviors, but when alternated, yield a desirable oscillatory behavior. In the analysis of the alternate-logistic map, we prove that alternating parameter values yielding extinction with parameter values associated with chaotic dynamics results in periodic trajectories. Ultimately, we consider a four season logistic model with either migration or immigration. -- Highlights: → We consider the logistic map as a population model and include parameter switching. → From bifurcation diagrams, we find parameters that follow the Parrondian Paradox. → We study a four-season Parrondian model that includes migration or immigration.

  12. Seasonality as a Parrondian game

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peacock-Lopez, Enrique

    2011-01-01

    Switching strategies can be related to the so-called Parrondian games, where the alternation of two losing games yields a winning game. We consider two dynamics that by themselves yield undesirable behaviors, but when alternated, yield a desirable oscillatory behavior. In the analysis of the alternate-logistic map, we prove that alternating parameter values yielding extinction with parameter values associated with chaotic dynamics results in periodic trajectories. Ultimately, we consider a four season logistic model with either migration or immigration. -- Highlights: → We consider the logistic map as a population model and include parameter switching. → From bifurcation diagrams, we find parameters that follow the Parrondian Paradox. → We study a four-season Parrondian model that includes migration or immigration.

  13. Seasonal Changes in Titan's Meteorology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turtle, E. P.; DelGenio, A. D.; Barbara, J. M.; Perry, J. E.; Schaller, E. L.; McEwen, A. S.; West, R. A.; Ray, T. L.

    2011-01-01

    The Cassini Imaging Science Subsystem has observed Titan for 1/4 Titan year, and we report here the first evidence of seasonal shifts in preferred locations of tropospheric methane clouds. South \\polar convective cloud activity, common in late southern summer, has become rare. North \\polar and northern mid \\latitude clouds appeared during the approach to the northern spring equinox in August 2009. Recent observations have shown extensive cloud systems at low latitudes. In contrast, southern mid \\latitude and subtropical clouds have appeared sporadically throughout the mission, exhibiting little seasonality to date. These differences in behavior suggest that Titan s clouds, and thus its general circulation, are influenced by both the rapid temperature response of a low \\thermal \\inertia surface and the much longer radiative timescale of Titan s cold thick troposphere. North \\polar clouds are often seen near lakes and seas, suggesting that local increases in methane concentration and/or lifting generated by surface roughness gradients may promote cloud formation. Citation

  14. Seasonal Nitrogen Cycles on Pluto

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Candice J.; Paige, David A.

    1996-01-01

    A thermal model, developed to predict seasonal nitrogen cycles on Triton, has been modified and applied to Pluto. The model was used to calculate the partitioning of nitrogen between surface frost deposits and the atmosphere, as a function of time for various sets of input parameters. Volatile transport was confirmed to have a significant effect on Pluto's climate as nitrogen moved around on a seasonal time scale between hemispheres, and sublimed into and condensed out of the atmosphere. Pluto's high obliquity was found to have a significant effect on the distribution of frost on its surface. Conditions that would lead to permanent polar caps on Triton were found to lead to permanent zonal frost bands on Pluto. In some instances, frost sublimed from the middle of a seasonal cap outward, resulting in a "polar bald spot". Frost which was darker than the substrate did not satisfy observables on Pluto, in contrast to our findings for Triton. Bright frost (brighter than the substrate) came closer to matching observables. Atmospheric pressure varied seasonally. The amplitudes, and to a lesser extent the phase, of the variation depended significantly on frost and substrate properties. Atmospheric pressure was found to be determined both by Pluto's distance from the sun and by the subsolar latitude. In most cases two peaks in atmospheric pressure were observed annually: a greater one associated with the sublimation of the north polar cap just as Pluto receded from perihelion, and a lesser one associated with the sublimation of the south polar cap as Pluto approached perihelion. Our model predicted frost-free dark substrate surface temperatures in the 50 to 60 K range, while frost temperatures typically ranged between 30 to 40 K. Temporal changes in frost coverage illustrated by our results, and changes in the viewing geometry of Pluto from the Earth, may be important for interpretation of ground-based measurements of Pluto's thermal emission.

  15. Light Therapy Boxes for Seasonal Affective Disorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seasonal affective disorder treatment: Choosing a light therapy box Light therapy boxes can offer an effective treatment for seasonal affective disorder. Features such as light intensity, safety, cost and ...

  16. Yearly, seasonal and monthly daily average diffuse sky radiation models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kassem, A.S.; Mujahid, A.M.; Turner, D.W.

    1993-01-01

    A daily average diffuse sky radiation regression model based on daily global radiation was developed utilizing two year data taken near Blytheville, Arkansas (Lat. =35.9 0 N, Long. = 89.9 0 W), U.S.A. The model has a determination coefficient of 0.91 and 0.092 standard error of estimate. The data were also analyzed for a seasonal dependence and four seasonal average daily models were developed for the spring, summer, fall and winter seasons. The coefficient of determination is 0.93, 0.81, 0.94 and 0.93, whereas the standard error of estimate is 0.08, 0.102, 0.042 and 0.075 for spring, summer, fall and winter, respectively. A monthly average daily diffuse sky radiation model was also developed. The coefficient of determination is 0.92 and the standard error of estimate is 0.083. A seasonal monthly average model was also developed which has 0.91 coefficient of determination and 0.085 standard error of estimate. The developed monthly daily average and daily models compare well with a selected number of previously developed models. (author). 11 ref., figs., tabs

  17. SEASONAL MARKETING: STRATEGIES USING THE CALENDAR

    OpenAIRE

    Dr Anil Sardana; Dr PoojaTalwar; Shruti Gulati

    2018-01-01

    In this ever-dynamic world, the only thing that is constant is change. Change when happens, applies to all; then why should marketing remain the same? Each year is a witness to various seasons, and each season requires separate marketing efforts to be carried out differently. Seasonal marketing thus helps to capitalise on the varied demand through varied marketing. Every season requires special efforts and hence leads to different sales.

  18. Mapping global diversity patterns for migratory birds.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marius Somveille

    Full Text Available Nearly one in five bird species has separate breeding and overwintering distributions, and the regular migrations of these species cause a substantial seasonal redistribution of avian diversity across the world. However, despite its ecological importance, bird migration has been largely ignored in studies of global avian biodiversity, with few studies having addressed it from a macroecological perspective. Here, we analyse a dataset on the global distribution of the world's birds in order to examine global spatial patterns in the diversity of migratory species, including: the seasonal variation in overall species diversity due to migration; the contribution of migratory birds to local bird diversity; and the distribution of narrow-range and threatened migratory birds. Our analyses reveal a striking asymmetry between the Northern and Southern hemispheres, evident in all of the patterns investigated. The highest migratory bird diversity was found in the Northern Hemisphere, with high inter-continental turnover in species composition between breeding and non-breeding seasons, and extensive regions (at high latitudes where migratory birds constitute the majority of the local avifauna. Threatened migratory birds are concentrated mainly in Central and Southern Asia, whereas narrow-range migratory species are mainly found in Central America, the Himalayas and Patagonia. Overall, global patterns in the diversity of migratory birds indicate that bird migration is mainly a Northern Hemisphere phenomenon. The asymmetry between the Northern and Southern hemispheres could not have easily been predicted from the combined results of regional scale studies, highlighting the importance of a global perspective.

  19. Seasonal variation in thoracic vessel calcifications: Evidence from a chest computed tomography study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vehmas, Tapio; Leino-Arjas, Paeivi (Health and Work Ability, Finnish Inst. of Occupational Health, Helsinki (Finland)), e-mail: tapio.vehmas@ttl.fi; Hiltunen, Asta (Dept. of Radiology, Central Hospital of Laensi-Pohja, Kemi (Finland))

    2010-01-15

    Background: Cardiovascular disease incidence and mortality exhibit a winter peak and a summer trough, a fact that could have radiological manifestations. Purpose: To identify possible seasonal trends in the occurrence of thoracic vessel calcifications. Material and Methods: 505 male construction workers (aged 39-80 years) were each imaged once with chest spiral computed tomography (CT) during a 2-year period. Based on visual assessment of calcified plaques (0=no, 1=slight, 2=moderate, 3=extensive calcification), sum scores of atherosclerosis in coronary arteries, in the thoracic aorta, in the pre-cervical artery bases, and overall were constructed. The scores were regressed on the annual rank number of the CT day. Results: By using the cubic regression model, seasonal variation in calcified plaques in coronary arteries (P=0.003), in pre-cervical artery origins (P=0.015), and in the overall sum score (P=0.004) was observed. The peak occurred in January-February and the nadir in August. Depending on the model, about 2-3% of the variation in atherosclerotic calcifications could be explained by the season of imaging. Conclusion: The observed seasonal trend in calcifications parallels with mortality reports. Seasonal variations should be considered in atherosclerosis treatment studies. Confirmatory studies using modern imaging technology are needed in different countries and geographical locations, preferably with repeat imaging of the same individuals

  20. 7 CFR 916.15 - Marketing season.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 8 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Marketing season. 916.15 Section 916.15 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements... Regulating Handling Definitions § 916.15 Marketing season. Marketing season means the period beginning on...

  1. End-of-season heating fuel report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    The year-end report notes that the 1991-92 heating season had lower average oil prices (retail home heating fuel) than the past two winters and prices remained relatively stable throughout the season. This year, the heating season average was $.87 per gallon, $1.05 for kerosene, and $1.33 for propane

  2. Statistical properties of the seasonal fractionally integrated ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    We investigate the properties of this new model providing stationary conditions, some explicit form of the autocovariance function and the spectral density. We also establish the asymptotic behaviour of the spectral density function near the seasonal frequencies. Keywords: Seasonality; Spatial short memory; Seasonal long ...

  3. Global swindle of global warming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zeiler, W.

    2007-01-01

    Voor sommige mensen is het nog steeds niet aannemelijk dat we te maken hebben met de effecten van ‘Global Warming’, de opwarming van de aarde door voornamelijk de broeikasgassen die vrijkomen bij de verbranding van fossiele brandstoffen. In de media worden voor- en tegenstanders aan het woord

  4. GRACE score predicts heart failure admission following acute coronary syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAllister, David A; Halbesma, Nynke; Carruthers, Kathryn; Denvir, Martin; Fox, Keith A

    2015-04-01

    Congestive heart failure (CHF) is a common and preventable complication of acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Nevertheless, ACS risk scores have not been shown to predict CHF risk. We investigated whether the at-discharge Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score predicts heart failure admission following ACS. Five-year mortality and hospitalization data were obtained for patients admitted with ACS from June 1999 to September 2009 to a single centre of the GRACE registry. CHF was defined as any admission assigned WHO International Classification of Diseases 10 diagnostic code I50. The hazard ratio (HR) for CHF according to GRACE score was estimated in Cox models adjusting for age, gender and the presence of CHF on index admission. Among 1,956 patients, CHF was recorded on index admission in 141 patients (7%), and 243 (12%) were admitted with CHF over 3.8 median years of follow-up. Compared to the lowest quintile, patients in the highest GRACE score quintile had more CHF admissions (116 vs 17) and a shorter time to first admission (1.2 vs 2.0 years, HR 9.87, 95% CI 5.93-16.43). Per standard deviation increment in GRACE score, the instantaneous risk was more than two-fold higher (HR 2.28; 95% CI 2.02-2.57), including after adjustment for CHF on index admission, age and gender (HR 2.49; 95% CI 2.06-3.02). The C-statistic for CHF admission at 1-year was 0.74 (95% CI 0.70-0.79). The GRACE score predicts CHF admission, and may therefore be used to target ACS patients at high risk of CHF with clinical monitoring and therapies. © The European Society of Cardiology 2014.

  5. Conceived globals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cheraghi, Maryam; Schøtt, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    and culture which have separate effects. Being man, young, educated and having entrepreneurial competencies promote transnational networking extensively. Networking is embedded in culture, in the way that transnational networking is more extensive in secular-rational culture than in traditional culture.......A firm may be conceived global, in the sense that, before its birth, the founding entrepreneur has a transnational network of advisors which provides an embedding for organising the upstart that may include assembling resources and marketing abroad. The purpose is to account for the entrepreneurs...... the intending, starting and operating phases, fairly constantly with only small fluctuations. The firm is conceived global in terms of the entrepreneur's transnational networking already in the pre-birth phase, when the entrepreneur is intending to start the firm. These phase effects hardly depend on attributes...

  6. Global Derivatives

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Torben Juul

    approaches to dealing in the global business environment." - Sharon Brown-Hruska, Commissioner, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, USA. "This comprehensive survey of modern risk management using derivative securities is a fine demonstration of the practical relevance of modern derivatives theory to risk......" provides comprehensive coverage of different types of derivatives, including exchange traded contracts and over-the-counter instruments as well as real options. There is an equal emphasis on the practical application of derivatives and their actual uses in business transactions and corporate risk...... management situations. Its key features include: derivatives are introduced in a global market perspective; describes major derivative pricing models for practical use, extending these principles to valuation of real options; practical applications of derivative instruments are richly illustrated...

  7. Predictability of soil moisture and river flows over France for the spring season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singla, S.; Céron, J.-P.; Martin, E.; Regimbeau, F.; Déqué, M.; Habets, F.; Vidal, J.-P.

    2012-01-01

    Sources of spring predictability of the hydrological system over France were studied on a seasonal time scale over the 1960-2005 period. Two random sampling experiments were set up in order to test the relative importance of the land surface initial state and the atmospheric forcing. The experiments were based on the SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU hydrometeorological suite which computed soil moisture and river flow forecasts over a 8-km grid and more than 880 river-gauging stations. Results showed that the predictability of hydrological variables primarily depended on the seasonal atmospheric forcing (mostly temperature and total precipitation) over most plains, whereas it mainly depended on snow cover over high mountains. However, the Seine catchment area was an exception as the skill mainly came from the initial state of its large and complex aquifers. Seasonal meteorological hindcasts with the Météo-France ARPEGE climate model were then used to force the ISBA-MODCOU hydrological model and obtain seasonal hydrological forecasts from 1960 to 2005 for the entire March-April-May period. Scores from this seasonal hydrological forecasting suite could thus be compared with the random atmospheric experiment. Soil moisture and river flow skill scores clearly showed the added value in seasonal meteorological forecasts in the north of France, contrary to the Mediterranean area where values worsened.

  8. Energy globalization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tierno Andres

    1997-01-01

    Toward the future, the petroleum could stop to be the main energy source in the world and the oil companies will only survive if they are adjusted to the new winds that blow in the general energy sector. It will no longer be enough to be the owner of the resource (petroleum or gas) so that a company subsists and be profitable in the long term. The future, it will depend in great measure of the vision with which the oil companies face the globalization concept that begins to experience the world in the energy sector. Concepts like globalization, competition, integration and diversification is something that the companies of the hydrocarbons sector will have very present. Globalization means that it should be been attentive to what happens in the world, beyond of the limits of its territory, or to be caught by competitive surprises that can originate in very distant places. The search of cleaner and friendlier energy sources with the means it is not the only threat that it should fear the petroleum. Their substitution for electricity in the big projects of massive transport, the technology of the communications, the optic fiber and the same relationships with the aboriginal communities are aspects that also compete with the future of the petroleum

  9. Global overeksponering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosenstand, Claus A. Foss

    2007-01-01

    forandringer. Den globale orientering kommer blandt andet til udtryk i det relativt store internationale netværk, som bakker de unge op i deres protester - enten ved tilstedeværelse i København eller andre sympatiaktioner. Siden den 11. september, 2001, er globale realiteter blevet eksponeret i massemedierne...... så bliver der blændet fuldt op for linsen d. 11. september, 2001 til en global verden, hvor de demokratiske værdier ikke gælder. Lad mig blot give et eksempel: Guatanamo. Jeg skal hverken tale for eller imod den måde verden er indrettet på - da det er denne analyse uvedkommende - men blot pege på...... med væsentligt større kraft end tidligere. Før den 11. september blev globaliseringen udelukkende tegnet af jetsettet. Altså internationale politikere, kulturkoryfæer, videnskabsfolk og forretningsfolk, der har handler ud fra kendte rationaler. Men jetsettet har ikke længere den privilegeret position...

  10. Oswestry Disability Index scoring made easy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehra, A; Baker, D; Disney, S; Pynsent, P B

    2008-09-01

    Low back pain effects up to 80% of the population at some time during their active life. Questionnaires are available to help measure pain and disability. The Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) is the most commonly used outcome measure for low back pain. The aim of this study was to see if training in completing the ODI forms improved the scoring accuracy. The last 100 ODI forms completed in a hospital's spinal clinic were reviewed retrospectively and errors in the scoring were identified. Staff members involved in scoring the questionnaire were made aware of the errors and the correct method of scoring explained. A chart was created with all possible scores to aid the staff with scoring. A prospective audit on 50 questionnaires was subsequently performed. The retrospective study showed that 33 of the 100 forms had been incorrectly scored. All questionnaires where one or more sections were not completed by the patient were incorrectly scored. A scoring chart was developed and staff training was implemented. This reduced the error rate to 14% in the prospective audit. Clinicians applying outcome measures should read the appropriate literature to ensure they understand the scoring system. Staff must then be given adequate training in the application of the questionnaires.

  11. Combination of scoring schemes for protein docking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schomburg Dietmar

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Docking algorithms are developed to predict in which orientation two proteins are likely to bind under natural conditions. The currently used methods usually consist of a sampling step followed by a scoring step. We developed a weighted geometric correlation based on optimised atom specific weighting factors and combined them with our previously published amino acid specific scoring and with a comprehensive SVM-based scoring function. Results The scoring with the atom specific weighting factors yields better results than the amino acid specific scoring. In combination with SVM-based scoring functions the percentage of complexes for which a near native structure can be predicted within the top 100 ranks increased from 14% with the geometric scoring to 54% with the combination of all scoring functions. Especially for the enzyme-inhibitor complexes the results of the ranking are excellent. For half of these complexes a near-native structure can be predicted within the first 10 proposed structures and for more than 86% of all enzyme-inhibitor complexes within the first 50 predicted structures. Conclusion We were able to develop a combination of different scoring schemes which considers a series of previously described and some new scoring criteria yielding a remarkable improvement of prediction quality.

  12. Forecasting the value of credit scoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saad, Shakila; Ahmad, Noryati; Jaffar, Maheran Mohd

    2017-08-01

    Nowadays, credit scoring system plays an important role in banking sector. This process is important in assessing the creditworthiness of customers requesting credit from banks or other financial institutions. Usually, the credit scoring is used when customers send the application for credit facilities. Based on the score from credit scoring, bank will be able to segregate the "good" clients from "bad" clients. However, in most cases the score is useful at that specific time only and cannot be used to forecast the credit worthiness of the same applicant after that. Hence, bank will not know if "good" clients will always be good all the time or "bad" clients may become "good" clients after certain time. To fill up the gap, this study proposes an equation to forecast the credit scoring of the potential borrowers at a certain time by using the historical score related to the assumption. The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is used to measure the accuracy of the forecast scoring. Result shows the forecast scoring is highly accurate as compared to actual credit scoring.

  13. Development of the siriraj clinical asthma score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vichyanond, Pakit; Veskitkul, Jittima; Rienmanee, Nuanphong; Pacharn, Punchama; Jirapongsananuruk, Orathai; Visitsunthorn, Nualanong

    2013-09-01

    Acute asthmatic attack in children commonly occurs despite the introduction of effective controllers such as inhaled corticosteroids and leukotriene modifiers. Treatment of acute asthmatic attack requires proper evaluation of attack severity and appropriate selection of medical therapy. In children, measurement of lung function is difficult during acute attack and thus clinical asthma scoring may aid physician in making further decision regarding treatment and admission. We enrolled 70 children with acute asthmatic attack with age range from 1 to 12 years (mean ± SD = 51.5 ± 31.8 months) into the study. Twelve selected asthma severity items were assessed by 2 independent observers prior to administration of salbutamol nebulization (up to 3 doses at 20 minutes interval). Decision for further therapy and admission was made by emergency department physician. Three different scoring systems were constructed from items with best validity. Sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of these scores were assessed. Inter-rater reliability was assessed for each score. Review of previous scoring systems was also conducted and reported. Three severity items had poor validity, i.e., cyanosis, depressed cerebral function, and I:E ratio (p > 0.05). Three items had poor inter-rater reliability, i.e., breath sound quality, air entry, and I:E ratio. These items were omitted and three new clinical scores were constructed from the remaining items. Clinical scoring system comprised retractions, dyspnea, O2 saturation, respiratory rate and wheezing (rangeof score 0-10) gave the best accuracy and inter-rater variability and were chosen for clinical use-Siriraj Clinical Asthma Score (SCAS). A Clinical Asthma Score that is simple, relatively easy to administer and with good validity and variability is essential for treatment of acute asthma in children. Several good candidate scores have been introduced in the past. We described the development of the Siriraj Clinical Asthma Score (SCAS) in

  14. A diagnostic scoring system for myxedema coma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popoveniuc, Geanina; Chandra, Tanu; Sud, Anchal; Sharma, Meeta; Blackman, Marc R; Burman, Kenneth D; Mete, Mihriye; Desale, Sameer; Wartofsky, Leonard

    2014-08-01

    To develop diagnostic criteria for myxedema coma (MC), a decompensated state of extreme hypothyroidism with a high mortality rate if untreated, in order to facilitate its early recognition and treatment. The frequencies of characteristics associated with MC were assessed retrospectively in patients from our institutions in order to derive a semiquantitative diagnostic point scale that was further applied on selected patients whose data were retrieved from the literature. Logistic regression analysis was used to test the predictive power of the score. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed to test the discriminative power of the score. Of the 21 patients examined, 7 were reclassified as not having MC (non-MC), and they were used as controls. The scoring system included a composite of alterations of thermoregulatory, central nervous, cardiovascular, gastrointestinal, and metabolic systems, and presence or absence of a precipitating event. All 14 of our MC patients had a score of ≥60, whereas 6 of 7 non-MC patients had scores of 25 to 50. A total of 16 of 22 MC patients whose data were retrieved from the literature had a score ≥60, and 6 of 22 of these patients scored between 45 and 55. The odds ratio per each score unit increase as a continuum was 1.09 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01 to 1.16; P = .019); a score of 60 identified coma, with an odds ratio of 1.22. The area under the ROC curve was 0.88 (95% CI, 0.65 to 1.00), and the score of 60 had 100% sensitivity and 85.71% specificity. A score ≥60 in the proposed scoring system is potentially diagnostic for MC, whereas scores between 45 and 59 could classify patients at risk for MC.

  15. Self-perceived personality characteristics in seasonal affective disorder and their implications for severity of depression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hjordt, Liv Vadskjær; Dam, Vibeke H; Ozenne, Brice

    2018-01-01

    The personality traits Neuroticism and Extraversion may be involved in the development of seasonal affective disorder (SAD). However, the impact of personality traits on SAD severity and whether such self-reported traits fluctuate with season is unknown. We investigated the association between...... Neuroticism, as acquired in a symptom-free phase and depression severity in individuals with SAD and seasonal changes in personality traits in individuals with SAD compared to healthy controls. Twenty-nine individuals diagnosed with SAD and thirty demographically matched controls completed the NEO Personality...... Inventory-Revised and the Major Depression Inventory twice: in summer when individuals with SAD were symptom-free, and in winter when they experienced SAD symptoms. In summer, the groups scored similarly on their personality traits, and the controls did not score any different in winter compared to summer...

  16. Changing Seasonality and the Role of the Shoulder Season - Evidence from Denamrk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Nils Karl

    2009-01-01

    the issue of the shoulder season in a time series framework. Departing from a discussion of the nature of types of seasonal variation, a test is set up in order to examine the impact of the shoulder season. The test examines the impact on the mean share of hotel nights in the shoulder season months in two...

  17. A Comparison of Two Scoring Methods for an Automated Speech Scoring System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xi, Xiaoming; Higgins, Derrick; Zechner, Klaus; Williamson, David

    2012-01-01

    This paper compares two alternative scoring methods--multiple regression and classification trees--for an automated speech scoring system used in a practice environment. The two methods were evaluated on two criteria: construct representation and empirical performance in predicting human scores. The empirical performance of the two scoring models…

  18. The percutaneous nephrolithotomy global study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Labate, Gaston; Modi, Pranjal; Timoney, Anthony

    2011-01-01

    PCNL Global Study collected prospective data for consecutive patients who were treated with PCNL at centers around the world for 1 year. Complications were evaluated by the modified Clavien classification system. RESULTS: Of 5724 patients with Clavien scores, 1175 (20.5%) patients experienced one......PURPOSE: This study evaluated postoperative complications of percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL) and the influence of selected factors on the risk of complications using the Clinical Research Office of the Endourological Society (CROES) PCNL Global Study database. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The CROES...... grade I. Two patients died in the postoperative period. The largest absolute increases in mean Clavien score were associated with American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) physical status classification IV (0.75) or III (0.34), anticoagulant medication use (0.29), positive microbiologic culture from...

  19. Harvest season, high polluted season in East China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang Xin; Song Yu; Li Mengmeng; Li Jianfeng; Zhu Tong

    2012-01-01

    East China, a major agricultural zone with a dense population, suffers from severe air pollution during June, the agricultural harvest season, every year. Crop burning emits tremendous amounts of combustion products into the atmosphere, not only rapidly degrading the local air quality but also affecting the tropospheric chemistry, threatening public health and affecting climate change. Recently, in mid-June 2012, crop fires left a thick pall of haze over East China. We evaluated the PM 10 , PM 2.5 (particulates less than 10 and 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter) and BC (black carbon) emissions by analyzing detailed census data and moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) remote sensing images and then simulated the consequent pollution using meteorological and dispersion models. The results show that the crop fires sweeping from the south to the north are responsible for the intensive air pollution during harvest season. It is necessary for scientists and governments to pay more attention to this issue. (letter)

  20. Seasonal water chemistry variability in the Pangani River basin, Tanzania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selemani, Juma R; Zhang, Jing; Muzuka, Alfred N N; Njau, Karoli N; Zhang, Guosen; Maggid, Arafa; Mzuza, Maureen K; Jin, Jie; Pradhan, Sonali

    2017-11-01

    The stable isotopes of δ 18 O, δ 2 H, and 87 Sr/ 86 Sr and dissolved major ions were used to assess spatial and seasonal water chemistry variability, chemical weathering, and hydrological cycle in the Pangani River Basin (PRB), Tanzania. Water in PRB was NaHCO 3 type dominated by carbonate weathering with moderate total dissolved solids. Major ions varied greatly, increasing from upstream to downstream. In some stations, content of fluoride and sodium was higher than the recommended drinking water standards. Natural and anthropogenic factors contributed to the lowering rate of chemical weathering; the rate was lower than most of tropical rivers. The rate of weathering was higher in Precambrian than volcanic rocks. 87 Sr/ 86 Sr was lower than global average whereas concentration of strontium was higher than global average with mean annual flux of 0.13 × 10 6  mol year -1 . Evaporation and altitude effects have caused enrichment of δ 18 O and δ 2 H in dry season and downstream of the river. Higher d-excess value than global average suggests that most of the stations were supplied by recycled moisture. Rainfall and groundwater were the major sources of surface flowing water in PRB; nevertheless, glacier from Mt. Kilimanjaro has insignificant contribution to the surface water. We recommend measures to be taken to reduce the level of fluoride and sodium before domestic use.

  1. [The diagnostic scores for deep venous thrombosis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junod, A

    2015-08-26

    Seven diagnostic scores for the deep venous thrombosis (DVT) of lower limbs are analyzed and compared. Two features make this exer- cise difficult: the problem of distal DVT and of their proximal extension and the status of patients, whether out- or in-patients. The most popular score is the Wells score (1997), modi- fied in 2003. It includes one subjective ele- ment based on clinical judgment. The Primary Care score 12005), less known, has similar pro- perties, but uses only objective data. The pre- sent trend is to associate clinical scores with the dosage of D-Dimers to rule out with a good sensitivity the probability of TVP. For the upper limb DVT, the Constans score (2008) is available, which can also be coupled with D-Dimers testing (Kleinjan).

  2. Global Simulation of Aviation Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sridhar, Banavar; Sheth, Kapil; Ng, Hok Kwan; Morando, Alex; Li, Jinhua

    2016-01-01

    The simulation and analysis of global air traffic is limited due to a lack of simulation tools and the difficulty in accessing data sources. This paper provides a global simulation of aviation operations combining flight plans and real air traffic data with historical commercial city-pair aircraft type and schedule data and global atmospheric data. The resulting capability extends the simulation and optimization functions of NASA's Future Air Traffic Management Concept Evaluation Tool (FACET) to global scale. This new capability is used to present results on the evolution of global air traffic patterns from a concentration of traffic inside US, Europe and across the Atlantic Ocean to a more diverse traffic pattern across the globe with accelerated growth in Asia, Australia, Africa and South America. The simulation analyzes seasonal variation in the long-haul wind-optimal traffic patterns in six major regions of the world and provides potential time-savings of wind-optimal routes compared with either great circle routes or current flight-plans if available.

  3. Scoring an Abstract Contemporary Silent Film

    OpenAIRE

    Frost, Crystal

    2014-01-01

    I composed an original digital audio film score with full sound design for a contemporary silent film called Apple Tree. The film is highly conceptual and interpretive and required a very involved, intricate score to successfully tell the story. In the process of scoring this film, I learned new ways to convey an array of contrasting emotions through music and sound. After analyzing the film's emotional journey, I determined that six defining emotions were the foundation on which to build an ...

  4. A further contribution to the seasonal variation of weighted mean temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Maohua; Hu, Wusheng

    2017-12-01

    The weighted mean temperature Tm is a variable parameter in the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) meteorology and the Askne-Nordius zenith wet delay (ZWD) model. Some parameters about the Tm seasonal variation (e.g. the annual mean value, the annual range, the annual and semi-annual amplitudes, and the long-term trend) were discussed before. In this study, some additional results about the Tm seasonal variation on a global scale were found by using the Tm time series at 309 global radiosonde sites. Periodic signals of the annual and semi-annual variations were detected in these Tm time series by using the Lomb-Scargle periodogram. The annual variation is the main component of the periodic Tm in non-tropical regions, while the annual variation or the semiannual variation can be the main component of the periodic Tm in tropics. The mean annual Tm almost keeps constant with the increasing latitude in tropics, while it decreases with the increasing latitude in non-tropical regions. From a global perspective, Tm has an increasing trend of 0.22 K/decade on average, which may be caused by the global warming effects. The annual phase is almost found in about January for the non-tropical regions of the Southern Hemisphere and in about July for the non-tropical regions of the Northern Hemisphere, but it has no clear symmetry in tropics. Unlike the annual phase, the geographical distributions of semi-annual phase do not follow obvious rules. In non-tropical regions, the maximum and minimum Tm of the seasonal model are usually found in respective summer and winter days while the maximum and minimum Tm are distributed over a whole year but not in any fixed seasons for tropical regions. The seasonal model errors increase with the increasing value of annual amplitude. A primary reason for the irregular seasonal variation in tropics is that Tm has rather small variations in this region.

  5. Seasonal cycles of isoprene concentrations in the Amazonian rainforest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trostdorf, C. R.; Gatti, L. V.; Yamazaki, A.; Potosnak, M. J.; Guenther, A.; Martins, W. C.; Munger, J. W.

    2004-03-01

    Tropical forests are an important global source of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and other atmospheric trace gases. The high biodiversity in tropical rainforests complicates the extrapolation of biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions from leaf-level measurements to landscape and regional or global scales. In Amazónia, a significant fraction of the carbon emitted from the biosphere to the atmosphere is emitted in the form of BVOCs, and the knowledge of these emissions is important to our understanding of tropical and global atmospheric chemistry and carbon cycling. As part of the Large scale Biosphere-atmosphere experiment in Amazónia (LBA). VOC concentrations were measured at two sites near Santarém, Para State, Brazil. The two sites are located in the National Forest of Tapajós, the first corresponding to primary forest and the second to a forest, that was selectively logged. The samples were collected simultaneously at heights of 65 and 55 m (20 and 10 m above forest canopy, respectively). The average isoprene mixing ratio was 2.2-2.5 ppb at the two sites and the standard deviations within a site ranged from 1 to 1.2 ppb. A strong seasonality of isoprene mixing ratio was observed and associated with the wet and dry seasons. The lowest mixing ratios were found during the transition between the wet to dry season, while at the start of the biomass burning season the mixing ratios increase. A qualitative analysis of a one dimensional model demonstrates that the seasonal cycle in concentrations reflects changes in isoprene production by the ecosystem, not changes in boundary layer dynamics or chemistry. The magnitude of the cycle indicates that the physiological capacity of the ecosystem to emit isoprene may depend on water availability although phenological changes could also contribute to the observed variations. A simple 1-D model that assumes mean daytime isoprene fluxes of 1.5 mg m-2h-1 and 0.9 mg m-2h-1 scaled by an algorithm depending on

  6. Geographical and seasonal correlation of multiple sclerosis to sporadic schizophrenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fritzsche Markus

    2002-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Clusters by season and locality reveal a striking epidemiological overlap between sporadic schizophrenia and multiple sclerosis (MS. As the birth excesses of those individuals who later in life develop schizophrenia mirror the seasonal distribution of Ixodid ticks, a meta analysis has been performed between all neuropsychiatric birth excesses including MS and the epidemiology of spirochaetal infectious diseases. Results The prevalence of MS and schizophrenic birth excesses entirely spares the tropical belt where human treponematoses are endemic, whereas in more temperate climates infection rates of Borrelia garinii in ticks collected from seabirds match the global geographic distribution of MS. If the seasonal fluctuations of Lyme borreliosis in Europe are taken into account, the birth excesses of MS and those of schizophrenia are nine months apart, reflecting the activity of Ixodes ricinus at the time of embryonic implantation and birth. In America, this nine months' shift between MS and schizophrenic births is also reflected by the periodicity of Borrelia burgdorferi transmitting Ixodes pacificus ticks along the West Coast and the periodicity of Ixodes scapularis along the East Coast. With respect to Ixodid tick activity, amongst the neuropsychiatric birth excesses only amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS shows a similar seasonal trend. Conclusion It cannot be excluded at present that maternal infection by Borrelia burgdorferi poses a risk to the unborn. The seasonal and geographical overlap between schizophrenia, MS and neuroborreliosis rather emphasises a causal relation that derives from exposure to a flagellar virulence factor at conception and delivery. It is hoped that the pathogenic correlation of spirochaetal virulence to temperature and heat shock proteins (HSP might encourage a new direction of research in molecular epidemiology.

  7. The FAt Spondyloarthritis Spine Score (FASSS)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Susanne Juhl; Zhao, Zheng; Lambert, Robert Gw

    2013-01-01

    an important measure of treatment efficacy as well as a surrogate marker for new bone formation. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a new scoring method for fat lesions in the spine, the Fat SpA Spine Score (FASSS), which in contrast to the existing scoring method addresses the localization......Studies have shown that fat lesions follow resolution of inflammation in the spine of patients with axial spondyloarthritis (SpA). Fat lesions at vertebral corners have also been shown to predict development of new syndesmophytes. Therefore, scoring of fat lesions in the spine may constitute both...

  8. Recognition Using Classification and Segmentation Scoring

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kimball, Owen; Ostendorf, Mari; Rohlicek, Robin

    1992-01-01

    .... We describe an approach to connected word recognition that allows the use of segmental information through an explicit decomposition of the recognition criterion into classification and segmentation scoring...

  9. Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnal, Louise; Cloke, Hannah L.; Stephens, Elisabeth; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Prudhomme, Christel; Neumann, Jessica; Krzeminski, Blazej; Pappenberger, Florian

    2018-04-01

    This paper considers whether there is any added value in using seasonal climate forecasts instead of historical meteorological observations for forecasting streamflow on seasonal timescales over Europe. A Europe-wide analysis of the skill of the newly operational EFAS (European Flood Awareness System) seasonal streamflow forecasts (produced by forcing the Lisflood model with the ECMWF System 4 seasonal climate forecasts), benchmarked against the ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) forecasting approach (produced by forcing the Lisflood model with historical meteorological observations), is undertaken. The results suggest that, on average, the System 4 seasonal climate forecasts improve the streamflow predictability over historical meteorological observations for the first month of lead time only (in terms of hindcast accuracy, sharpness and overall performance). However, the predictability varies in space and time and is greater in winter and autumn. Parts of Europe additionally exhibit a longer predictability, up to 7 months of lead time, for certain months within a season. In terms of hindcast reliability, the EFAS seasonal streamflow hindcasts are on average less skilful than the ESP for all lead times. The results also highlight the potential usefulness of the EFAS seasonal streamflow forecasts for decision-making (measured in terms of the hindcast discrimination for the lower and upper terciles of the simulated streamflow). Although the ESP is the most potentially useful forecasting approach in Europe, the EFAS seasonal streamflow forecasts appear more potentially useful than the ESP in some regions and for certain seasons, especially in winter for almost 40 % of Europe. Patterns in the EFAS seasonal streamflow hindcast skill are however not mirrored in the System 4 seasonal climate hindcasts, hinting at the need for a better understanding of the link between hydrological and meteorological variables on seasonal timescales, with the aim of improving climate

  10. Global safety

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dorien J. DeTombe

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Global Safety is a container concept referring to various threats such as HIV/Aids, floods and terrorism; threats with different causes and different effects. These dangers threaten people, the global economy and the slity of states. Policy making for this kind of threats often lack an overview of the real causes and the interventions are based on a too shallow analysis of the problem, mono-disciplinary and focus mostly only on the effects. It would be more appropriate to develop policy related to these issues by utilizing the approaches, methods and tools that have been developed for complex societal problems. Handling these complex societal problems should be done multidisciplinary instead of mono-disciplinary. In order to give politicians the opportunity to handle complex problems multidisciplinary, multidisciplinary research institutes should be created. These multidisciplinary research institutes would provide politicians with better approaches to handle this type of problem. In these institutes the knowledge necessary for the change of these problems can be created through the use of the Compram methodology which has been developed specifically for handling complex societal problems. In a six step approach, experts, actors and policymakers discuss the content of the problem and the possible changes. The framework method uses interviewing, the Group Decision Room, simulation models and scenario's in a cooperative way. The methodology emphasizes the exchange of knowledge and understanding by communication among and between the experts, actors and politicians meanwhile keeping emotion in mind. The Compram methodology will be further explained in relation to global safety in regard to terrorism, economy, health care and agriculture.

  11. Global ambitions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scruton, M.

    1996-01-01

    The article discusses global ambitions concerning the Norwegian petroleum industry. With the advent of the NORSOK (Forum for development and operation) cost reduction programme and a specific focus on key sectors of the market, the Norwegian oil industry is beginning to market its considerable technological achievements internationally. Obviously, the good fortune of having tested this technology in a very demanding domestic arena means that Norwegian offshore support companies, having succeeded at home, are perfectly poised to export their expertise to the international sector. Drawing on the traditional strengths of the country's maritime heritage, with mobile rig and specialized vessel business featuring strongly, other key technologies have been developed. 5 figs., 1 tab

  12. Self-perceived personality characteristics in seasonal affective disorder and their implications for severity of depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hjordt, Liv Vadskjær; Dam, Vibeke H; Ozenne, Brice; Hageman, Ida; Mc Mahon, Brenda; Mortensen, Erik Lykke; Knudsen, Gitte M; Stenbæk, Dea Siggaard

    2018-04-01

    The personality traits Neuroticism and Extraversion may be involved in the development of seasonal affective disorder (SAD). However, the impact of personality traits on SAD severity and whether such self-reported traits fluctuate with season is unknown. We investigated the association between Neuroticism, as acquired in a symptom-free phase and depression severity in individuals with SAD and seasonal changes in personality traits in individuals with SAD compared to healthy controls. Twenty-nine individuals diagnosed with SAD and thirty demographically matched controls completed the NEO Personality Inventory-Revised and the Major Depression Inventory twice: in summer when individuals with SAD were symptom-free, and in winter when they experienced SAD symptoms. In summer, the groups scored similarly on their personality traits, and the controls did not score any different in winter compared to summer. High scores on Neuroticism in summer was associated with more severe depressive symptoms in winter in SAD individuals. In winter, individuals with SAD scored higher on Neuroticism and lower on Extraversion, both compared to controls and to their own summer scores. Our results support that Neuroticism may represent a vulnerability marker related to SAD, and during a depressive episode Neuroticism and Extraversion may be sensitive markers of SAD pathology. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. A study on the predictability of the transition day from the dry to the rainy season over South Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sang-Min; Nam, Ji-Eun; Choi, Hee-Wook; Ha, Jong-Chul; Lee, Yong Hee; Kim, Yeon-Hee; Kang, Hyun-Suk; Cho, ChunHo

    2016-08-01

    This study was conducted to evaluate the prediction accuracies of THe Observing system Research and Predictability EXperiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) data at six operational forecast centers using the root-mean square difference (RMSD) and Brier score (BS) from April to July 2012. And it was performed to test the precipitation predictability of ensemble prediction systems (EPS) on the onset of the summer rainy season, the day of withdrawal in spring drought over South Korea on 29 June 2012 with use of the ensemble mean precipitation, ensemble probability precipitation, 10-day lag ensemble forecasts (ensemble mean and probability precipitation), and effective drought index (EDI). The RMSD analysis of atmospheric variables (geopotential-height at 500 hPa, temperature at 850 hPa, sea-level pressure and specific humidity at 850 hPa) showed that the prediction accuracies of the EPS at the Meteorological Service of Canada (CMC) and China Meteorological Administration (CMA) were poor and those at the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) were good. Also, ECMWF and KMA showed better results than other EPSs for predicting precipitation in the BS distributions. It is also evaluated that the onset of the summer rainy season could be predicted using ensemble-mean precipitation from 4-day leading time at all forecast centers. In addition, the spatial distributions of predicted precipitation of the EPS at KMA and the Met Office of the United Kingdom (UKMO) were similar to those of observed precipitation; thus, the predictability showed good performance. The precipitation probability forecasts of EPS at CMA, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), and UKMO (ECMWF and KMA) at 1-day lead time produced over-forecasting (under-forecasting) in the reliability diagram. And all the ones at 2˜4-day lead time showed under-forecasting. Also, the precipitation on onset day of

  14. Seasonal effect on physiological, reproductive and fertility profiles in breeding mithun bulls

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P Perumal

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To analyse the seasonal effect on physiological parameters, reproductive profiles and in vitro fertility in breeding mithun bulls.Methods: A total of ten adult mithun bulls age of 5 to 6 years old with good body condition (score 5-6 were selected from ICAR-NRC on Mithun, Jharnapani, Nagaland, India. The seasons were categorised into winter, spring, summer and autumn seasons based on the meteorological data and sunshine hours. The physiological parameters, reproductive profiles and in vitro fertility parameters were assessed during different seasons in mithun under the semi-intensive system of management.Results: The statistical analysis revealed that these experimental parameters were differed significantly (P<0.05 among the seasons and in overall spring and winter seasons were more beneficial in mithun breeding programme, although, the breeding in mithun occurred throughout the year with variation.Conclusions: It is concluded that collection & preservation of mithun semen and artificial insemination in mithun species during the season of spring and winter has significant beneficial effect in terms of semen production, freezability and fertility for artificial breeding programme in mithun under the semi-intensive system.

  15. Critical Care Nurses Inadequately Assess SAPS II Scores of Very Ill Patients in Real Life

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Perren

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Reliable ICU severity scores have been achieved by various healthcare workers but nothing is known regarding the accuracy in real life of severity scores registered by untrained nurses. Methods. In this retrospective multicentre audit, three reviewers independently reassessed 120 SAPS II scores. Correlation and agreement of the sum-scores/variables among reviewers and between nurses and the reviewers’ gold standard were assessed globally and for tertiles. Bland and Altman (gold standard—nurses of sum scores and regression of the difference were determined. A logistic regression model identifying risk factors for erroneous assessments was calculated. Results. Correlation for sum scores among reviewers was almost perfect (mean ICC = 0.985. The mean (±SD nurse-registered SAPS II sum score was 40.3±20.2 versus 44.2±24.9 of the gold standard (32 points scores. The lowest agreement was found in high SAPS II tertiles for haemodynamics (k = 0.45–0.51. Conclusions. In real life, nurse-registered SAPS II scores of very ill patients are inaccurate. Accuracy of scores was not associated with nurses’ characteristics.

  16. Application and verification of ECMWF seasonal forecast for wind energy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Žagar, Mark; Marić, Tomislav; Qvist, Martin; Gulstad, Line

    2015-04-01

    A good understanding of long-term annual energy production (AEP) is crucial when assessing the business case of investing in green energy like wind power. The art of wind-resource assessment has emerged into a scientific discipline on its own, which has advanced at high pace over the last decade. This has resulted in continuous improvement of the AEP accuracy and, therefore, increase in business case certainty. Harvesting the full potential output of a wind farm or a portfolio of wind farms depends heavily on optimizing operation and management strategy. The necessary information for short-term planning (up to 14 days) is provided by standard weather and power forecasting services, and the long-term plans are based on climatology. However, the wind-power industry is lacking quality information on intermediate scales of the expected variability in seasonal and intra-annual variations and their geographical distribution. The seasonal power forecast presented here is designed to bridge this gap. The seasonal power production forecast is based on the ECMWF seasonal weather forecast and the Vestas' high-resolution, mesoscale weather library. The seasonal weather forecast is enriched through a layer of statistical post-processing added to relate large-scale wind speed anomalies to mesoscale climatology. The resulting predicted energy production anomalies, thus, include mesoscale effects not captured by the global forecasting systems. The turbine power output is non-linearly related to the wind speed, which has important implications for the wind power forecast. In theory, the wind power is proportional to the cube of wind speed. However, due to the nature of turbine design, this exponent is close to 3 only at low wind speeds, becomes smaller as the wind speed increases, and above 11-13 m/s the power output remains constant, called the rated power. The non-linear relationship between wind speed and the power output generally increases sensitivity of the forecasted power

  17. Global health and global health ethics

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Benatar, S. R; Brock, Gillian

    2011-01-01

    ...? What are our responsibilities and how can we improve global health? Global Health and Global Health Ethics addresses these questions from the perspective of a range of disciplines, including medicine, philosophy and the social sciences...

  18. Equating error in observed-score equating

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Linden, Willem J.

    2006-01-01

    Traditionally, error in equating observed scores on two versions of a test is defined as the difference between the transformations that equate the quantiles of their distributions in the sample and population of test takers. But it is argued that if the goal of equating is to adjust the scores of

  19. Correlating continuous assessment scores to junior secondary ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study investigated the relationship between continuous assessment scores and junior secondary school certificate examination(JSCE) final scores in Imo State. A sample of four hundred students were purposively selected from thirty eight thousand students who took the 1997 JSCE in Imo State. The data used were ...

  20. Summary of Score Changes (in other Tests).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cleary, T. Anne; McCandless, Sam A.

    Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT) scores have declined during the last 14 years. Similar score declines have been observed in many different testing programs, many groups, and tested areas. The declines, while not large in any given year, have been consistent over time, area, and group. The period around 1965 is critical for the interpretation of…

  1. More Issues in Observed-Score Equating

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Linden, Wim J.

    2013-01-01

    This article is a response to the commentaries on the position paper on observed-score equating by van der Linden (this issue). The response focuses on the more general issues in these commentaries, such as the nature of the observed scores that are equated, the importance of test-theory assumptions in equating, the necessity to use multiple…

  2. Clinical scoring scales in thyroidology: A compendium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanjay Kalra

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This compendium brings together traditional as well as contemporary scoring and grading systems used for the screening and diagnosis of various thyroid diseases, dysfunctions, and complications. The article discusses scores used to help diagnose hypo-and hyperthyroidism, to grade and manage goiter and ophthalmopathy, and to assess the risk of thyroid malignancy.

  3. Semiparametric Copula Models for Biometric Score Level

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Caselli, M.

    2016-01-01

    In biometric recognition systems, biometric samples (images of faces, finger- prints, voices, gaits, etc.) of people are compared and classifiers (matchers) indicate the level of similarity between any pair of samples by a score. If two samples of the same person are compared, a genuine score is

  4. Intelligence Score Profiles of Female Juvenile Offenders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werner, Shelby Spare; Hart, Kathleen J.; Ficke, Susan L.

    2016-01-01

    Previous studies have found that male juvenile offenders typically obtain low scores on measures of intelligence, often with a pattern of higher scores on measures of nonverbal relative to verbal tasks. The research on the intelligence performance of female juvenile offenders is limited. This study explored the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for…

  5. Global teaching of global seismology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, S.; Wysession, M.

    2005-12-01

    Our recent textbook, Introduction to Seismology, Earthquakes, & Earth Structure (Blackwell, 2003) is used in many countries. Part of the reason for this may be our deliberate attempt to write the book for an international audience. This effort appears in several ways. We stress seismology's long tradition of global data interchange. Our brief discussions of the science's history illustrate the contributions of scientists around the world. Perhaps most importantly, our discussions of earthquakes, tectonics, and seismic hazards take a global view. Many examples are from North America, whereas others are from other areas. Our view is that non-North American students should be exposed to North American examples that are type examples, and that North American students should be similarly exposed to examples elsewhere. For example, we illustrate how the Euler vector geometry changes a plate boundary from spreading, to strike-slip, to convergence using both the Pacific-North America boundary from the Gulf of California to Alaska and the Eurasia-Africa boundary from the Azores to the Mediterranean. We illustrate diffuse plate boundary zones using western North America, the Andes, the Himalayas, the Mediterranean, and the East Africa Rift. The subduction zone discussions examine Japan, Tonga, and Chile. We discuss significant earthquakes both in the U.S. and elsewhere, and explore hazard mitigation issues in different contexts. Both comments from foreign colleagues and our experience lecturing overseas indicate that this approach works well. Beyond the specifics of our text, we believe that such a global approach is facilitated by the international traditions of the earth sciences and the world youth culture that gives students worldwide common culture. For example, a video of the scene in New Madrid, Missouri that arose from a nonsensical earthquake prediction in 1990 elicits similar responses from American and European students.

  6. [The use of scores in general medicine].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huber, Ursula; Rösli, Andreas; Ballmer, Peter E; Rippin, Sarah Jane

    2013-10-01

    Scores are tools to combine complex information into a numerical value. In General Medicine, there are scores to assist in making diagnoses and prognoses, scores to assist therapeutic decision making and to evaluate therapeutic results and scores to help physicians when informing and advising patients. We review six of the scoring systems that have the greatest utility for the General Physician in hospital-based care and in General Practice. The Nutritional Risk Screening (NRS 2002) tool is designed to identify hospital patients in danger of malnutrition. The aim is to improve the nutritional status of these patients. The CURB-65 score predicts 30-day mortality in patients with community acquired pneumonia. Patients with a low score can be considered for home treatment, patients with an elevated score require hospitalisation and those with a high score should be treated as having severe pneumonia; treatment in the intensive care unit should be considered. The IAS-AGLA score of the Working Group on Lipids and Atherosclerosis of the Swiss Society of Cardiology calculates the 10-year risk of a myocardial infarction for people living in Switzerland. The working group makes recommendations for preventative treatment according to the calculated risk status. The Body Mass Index, which is calculated by dividing the body weight in kilograms by the height in meters squared and then divided into weight categories, is used to classify people as underweight, of normal weight, overweight or obese. The prognostic value of this classification is discussed. The Mini-Mental State Examination allows the physician to assess important cognitive functions in a simple and standardised form. The Glasgow Coma Scale is used to classify the level of consciousness in patients with head injury. It can be used for triage and correlates with prognosis.

  7. Globalizing Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selmer, Jan; Lauring, Jakob

    2013-01-01

    countries to keep up the process of globalization may be substantial, and the economic gains for such countries from adjusting to a more internationally integrated world economy are clear. However, in small- population economies, especially social-democratic welfare states, the internal pressure......This exploratory article examines the paradox of being open-minded while ethnocentric as expressed in Danish international management practices at the micro level. With a population of 5.4 million, Denmark is one of the smallest of the European countries. The pressure on many small advanced...... to integrate counteracts to some extent the need to maintain openness to differences. Thus, a strong economy and a feeling of smug ethnocentrism in Denmark generate a central paradox in thinking about internationalization in Danish society....

  8. Global Geomorphology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas, I.

    1985-01-01

    Any global view of landforms must include an evaluation of the link between plate tectonics and geomorphology. To explain the broad features of the continents and ocean floors, a basic distinction between the tectogene and cratogene part of the Earth's surface must be made. The tectogene areas are those that are dominated by crustal movements, earthquakes and volcanicity at the present time and are essentially those of the great mountain belts and mid ocean ridges. Cratogene areas comprise the plate interiors, especially the old lands of Gondwanaland and Laurasia. Fundamental as this division between plate margin areas and plate interiors is, it cannot be said to be a simple case of a distinction between tectonically active and stable areas. Indeed, in terms of megageomorphology, former plate margins and tectonic activity up to 600 million years ago have to be considered.

  9. Global engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Plass, L.

    2001-01-01

    This article considers the challenges posed by the declining orders in the plant engineering and contracting business in Germany, the need to remain competitive, and essential preconditions for mastering the challenge. The change in engineering approach is illustrated by the building of a methanol plant in Argentina by Lurgi with the basic engineering completed in Frankfurt with involvement of key personnel from Poland, completely engineered subsystems from a Brazilian subsupplier, and detailed engineering work in Frankfurt. The production of methanol from natural gas using the LurgiMega/Methanol process is used as a typical example of the industrial plant construction sector. The prerequisites for successful global engineering are listed, and error costs in plant construction, possible savings, and process intensification are discussed

  10. Global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Houghton, John

    2005-01-01

    'Global warming' is a phrase that refers to the effect on the climate of human activities, in particular the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) and large-scale deforestation, which cause emissions to the atmosphere of large amounts of 'greenhouse gases', of which the most important is carbon dioxide. Such gases absorb infrared radiation emitted by the Earth's surface and act as blankets over the surface keeping it warmer than it would otherwise be. Associated with this warming are changes of climate. The basic science of the 'greenhouse effect' that leads to the warming is well understood. More detailed understanding relies on numerical models of the climate that integrate the basic dynamical and physical equations describing the complete climate system. Many of the likely characteristics of the resulting changes in climate (such as more frequent heat waves, increases in rainfall, increase in frequency and intensity of many extreme climate events) can be identified. Substantial uncertainties remain in knowledge of some of the feedbacks within the climate system (that affect the overall magnitude of change) and in much of the detail of likely regional change. Because of its negative impacts on human communities (including for instance substantial sea-level rise) and on ecosystems, global warming is the most important environmental problem the world faces. Adaptation to the inevitable impacts and mitigation to reduce their magnitude are both necessary. International action is being taken by the world's scientific and political communities. Because of the need for urgent action, the greatest challenge is to move rapidly to much increased energy efficiency and to non-fossil-fuel energy sources

  11. Global gamesmanship.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacMillan, Ian C; van Putten, Alexander B; McGrath, Rita Gunther

    2003-05-01

    Competition among multinationals these days is likely to be a three-dimensional game of global chess: The moves an organization makes in one market are designed to achieve goals in another in ways that aren't immediately apparent to its rivals. The authors--all management professors-call this approach "competing under strategic interdependence," or CSI. And where this interdependence exists, the complexity of the situation can quickly overwhelm ordinary analysis. Indeed, most business strategists are terrible at anticipating the consequences of interdependent choices, and they're even worse at using interdependency to their advantage. In this article, the authors offer a process for mapping the competitive landscape and anticipating how your company's moves in one market can influence its competitive interactions in others. They outline the six types of CSI campaigns--onslaughts, contests, guerrilla campaigns, feints, gambits, and harvesting--available to any multiproduct or multimarket corporation that wants to compete skillfully. They cite real-world examples such as the U.S. pricing battle Philip Morris waged with R.J. Reynolds--not to gain market share in the domestic cigarette market but to divert R.J. Reynolds's resources and attention from the opportunities Philip Morris was pursuing in Eastern Europe. And, using data they collected from their studies of consumer-products companies Procter & Gamble and Unilever, the authors describe how to create CSI tables and bubble charts that present a graphical look at the competitive landscape and that may uncover previously hidden opportunities. The CSI mapping process isn't just for global corporations, the authors explain. Smaller organizations that compete with a portfolio of products in just one national or regional market may find it just as useful for planning their next business moves.

  12. Seasonal influenza vaccine policy, use and effectiveness in the tropics and subtropics: a systematic literature review.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hirve, S.; Lambach, P.; Paget, J.; Vandemaele, K.; Fitzner, J.; Zhang, W.

    2016-01-01

    Aim: The evidence needed for tropical countries to take informed decisions on influenza vaccination is scarce. This paper reviews policy, availability, use and effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccine in tropical and subtropical countries. Method: Global health databases were searched in three

  13. Seasonal influenza vaccine policy, use and effectiveness in the tropics and subtropics - a systematic literature review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hirve, S.; Lambach, P.; Paget, J.; Vandemaele, K.; Fitzner, J.; Zhang, W.

    2016-01-01

    AIM: The evidence needed for tropical countries to take informed decisions on influenza vaccination is scarce. This article reviews policy, availability, use and effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccine in tropical and subtropical countries. METHOD: Global health databases were searched in three

  14. Summer of Seasons Workshop Program for Emerging Educators in Earth System Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaudhury, S. Raj

    2002-01-01

    Norfolk State University BEST Lab successfully hosted three Summer of Seasons programs from 1998-2001. The Summer of Seasons program combined activities during the summer with additional seminars and workshops to provide broad outreach in the number of students and teachers who participated. Lessons learned from the each of the first two years of this project were incorporated into the design of the final year's activities. The "Summer of Seasons" workshop program provided emerging educators with the familiarity and knowledge to utilize in the classroom curriculum materials developed through NASA sponsorship on Earth System Science. A special emphasis was placed on the use of advanced technologies to dispel the commonly held misconceptions regarding seasonal, climactic and global change phenomena.

  15. Seasonal Overturning Circulation in the Red Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, F.; Hoteit, I.; Koehl, A.

    2010-12-01

    The Red Sea exhibits a distinct seasonal overturning circulation. In winter, a typical two-layer exchange structure, with a fresher inflow from the Gulf of Aden on top of an outflow from the Red Sea, is established. In summer months (June to September) this circulation pattern is changed to a three-layer structure: a surface outflow from the Red Sea on top of a subsurface intrusion of the Gulf of Aden Intermediate Water and a weakened deep outflow. This seasonal variability is studied using a general circulation model, MITgcm, with 6 hourly NCEP atmospheric forcing. The model is able to reproduce the observed seasonal variability very well. The forcing mechanisms of the seasonal variability related to seasonal surface wind stress and buoyancy flux, and water mass transformation processes associated with the seasonal overturning circulation are analyzed and presented.

  16. Evidences of Seasonal Variation in Altimetry Derived Ocean Tides in the Subarctic Ocean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hok Sum Fok

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available While the barotropic ocean tides in the deep ocean are well modeled to ~2 cm RMS, accurate tidal prediction in the ice-covered polar oceans and near coastal regions remain elusive. A notable reason is that the most accurate satellite altimeters (TOPEX/Jason-1/-2, whose orbits are optimized to minimize the tidal aliasing effect, have spatial coverage limited to largely outside of the polar ocean. Here, we update the assessment of tidal models using 7 contemporary global and regional models, and show that the altimetry sea surface height (SSH anomaly residual after tidal correction is 9 - 12 cm RMS in the Subarctic Ocean. We then address the hypothesis whether plausible evidence of variable tidal signals exist in the seasonally ice-covered Subarctic Ocean, where the sea ice cover is undergoing rapid thinning. We first found a difference in variance reduction for multi-mission altimeter SSH anomaly residuals during the summer and winter seasons, with the residual during winter season 15 - 30% larger than that during the summer season. Experimental seasonal ocean tide solutions derived from satellite altimetry reveals that the recovered winter and summer tidal constituents generally differ by a few cm in amplitude and tens of degrees in phase. Relatively larger seasonal tidal patterns, in particular for M2, S2 and K1 tides, have been identified in the Chukchi Sea study region near eastern Siberia, coincident with the seasonal presence and movement of sea ice.

  17. An Evaluation of the Predictability of Austral Summer Season Precipitation over South America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Misra, Vasubandhu

    2004-03-01

    In this study predictability of austral summer seasonal precipitation over South America is investigated using a 12-yr set of a 3.5-month range (seasonal) and a 17-yr range (continuous multiannual) five-member ensemble integrations of the Center for Ocean Land Atmosphere Studies (COLA) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). These integrations were performed with prescribed observed sea surface temperature (SST); therefore, skill attained represents an estimate of the upper bound of the skill achievable by COLA AGCM with predicted SST. The seasonal runs outperform the multiannual model integrations both in deterministic and probabilistic skill. The simulation of the January February March (JFM) seasonal climatology of precipitation is vastly superior in the seasonal runs except over the Nordeste region where the multiannual runs show a marginal improvement. The teleconnection of the ensemble mean JFM precipitation over tropical South America with global contemporaneous observed sea surface temperature in the seasonal runs conforms more closely to observations than in the multiannual runs. Both the sets of runs clearly beat persistence in predicting the interannual precipitation anomalies over the Amazon River basin, Nordeste, South Atlantic convergence zone, and subtropical South America. However, both types of runs display poorer simulations over subtropical regions than the tropical areas of South America. The examination of probabilistic skill of precipitation supports the conclusions from deterministic skill analysis that the seasonal runs yield superior simulations than the multiannual-type runs.

  18. Amazon Forests Maintain Consistent Canopy Structure and Greenness During the Dry Season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, Douglas C.; Nagol, Jyoteshwar; Carabajal, Claudia C.; Rosette, Jacqueline; Palace, Michael; Cook, Bruce D.; Vermote, Eric F.; Harding, David J.; North, Peter R. J.

    2014-01-01

    The seasonality of sunlight and rainfall regulates net primary production in tropical forests. Previous studies have suggested that light is more limiting than water for tropical forest productivity, consistent with greening of Amazon forests during the dry season in satellite data.We evaluated four potential mechanisms for the seasonal green-up phenomenon, including increases in leaf area or leaf reflectance, using a sophisticated radiative transfer model and independent satellite observations from lidar and optical sensors. Here we show that the apparent green up of Amazon forests in optical remote sensing data resulted from seasonal changes in near-infrared reflectance, an artefact of variations in sun-sensor geometry. Correcting this bidirectional reflectance effect eliminated seasonal changes in surface reflectance, consistent with independent lidar observations and model simulations with unchanging canopy properties. The stability of Amazon forest structure and reflectance over seasonal timescales challenges the paradigm of light-limited net primary production in Amazon forests and enhanced forest growth during drought conditions. Correcting optical remote sensing data for artefacts of sun-sensor geometry is essential to isolate the response of global vegetation to seasonal and interannual climate variability.

  19. THE EFFICIENCY OF TENNIS DOUBLES SCORING SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Geoff Pollard

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper a family of scoring systems for tennis doubles for testing the hypothesis that pair A is better than pair B versus the alternative hypothesis that pair B is better than A, is established. This family or benchmark of scoring systems can be used as a benchmark against which the efficiency of any doubles scoring system can be assessed. Thus, the formula for the efficiency of any doubles scoring system is derived. As in tennis singles, one scoring system based on the play-the-loser structure is shown to be more efficient than the benchmark systems. An expression for the relative efficiency of two doubles scoring systems is derived. Thus, the relative efficiency of the various scoring systems presently used in doubles can be assessed. The methods of this paper can be extended to a match between two teams of 2, 4, 8, …doubles pairs, so that it is possible to establish a measure for the relative efficiency of the various systems used for tennis contests between teams of players.

  20. A comparison between modified Alvarado score and RIPASA score in the diagnosis of acute appendicitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singla, Anand; Singla, Satpaul; Singh, Mohinder; Singla, Deeksha

    2016-12-01

    Acute appendicitis is a common but elusive surgical condition and remains a diagnostic dilemma. It has many clinical mimickers and diagnosis is primarily made on clinical grounds, leading to the evolution of clinical scoring systems for pin pointing the right diagnosis. The modified Alvarado and RIPASA scoring systems are two important scoring systems, for diagnosis of acute appendicitis. We prospectively compared the two scoring systems for diagnosing acute appendicitis in 50 patients presenting with right iliac fossa pain. The RIPASA score correctly classified 88 % of patients with histologically confirmed acute appendicitis compared with 48.0 % with modified Alvarado score, indicating that RIPASA score is more superior to Modified Alvarado score in our clinical settings.

  1. Space Radar Image of Bebedauro, Brazil, seasonal

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-01-01

    This is an X-band image showing seasonal changes at the hydrological test site of Bebedouro in Brazil. The image is centered at 9 degrees south latitude and 40.2 degrees west longitude. This image was acquired by the Spaceborne Imaging Radar-C and X-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SIR-C/X-SAR) aboard the space shuttle Endeavour on April 10, 1994, during the first flight of the radar system, and on October 1, 1994, during the second mission. The swath width is approximately 16.5 kilometers (10.5 miles) wide. The image channels have the following color assignments: red represents data acquired on April 10; green represents data acquired on October 1; blue corresponds to the ratio of the two data sets. Agriculture plays an important economic and social role in Brazil. One of the major problems related to Brazilian agriculture is estimating the size of planting areas and their productivity. Due to cloud cover and the rainy season, which occurs from November through April, optical and infrared Earth observations are seldom used to survey the region. An additional goal of monitoring this region is to watch the floodplains of rivers like Rio Sao Francisco in order to determine suitable locations for additional agricultural fields. This area belongs to the semi-arid northeastern region of Brazil, where estimates have suggested that about 10 times more land could be used for agriculture, including some locations which could be used for irrigation projects. Monitoring of soil moisture during the important summer crop season is of high priority for the future development and productivity of this region. In April the area was covered with vegetation because of the moisture of the soil and only small differences could be seen in X-band data. In October the run-off channels of this hilly region stand out quite clearly because the greenish areas indicated much less soil moisture and water content in plants. Spaceborne Imaging Radar-C and X-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SIR

  2. Technical Efficiency of Wet Season Melon Farming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ananti Yekti

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Melon is one of high-value horticulture commodity which is cultivated widely in Kulon Progo regency. The nature of agricultural products is heavily dependent on the season, so it causes the prices of agricultural products always fluctuated every time. In wet season the price of agricultural products tends to be more expensive. Melon cultivation in wet season provide an opportunity to earn higher profits than in the dry season. The price of agricultural products tends to be more expensive in wet season, thus melon cultivation in wet season prospectively generate high profits. In order to achieve high profitability, melon farming has to be done efficiently. Objective of this study was to 1 determined the factors that influence melon production in wet season 2 measured technical efficiency of melon farming and 3 identified the factors that influanced technical efficiency. Data collected during April – June 2014. Location determined by multistage cluster sampling. 45 samples of farmers who cultivated melon during wet season obtained based on quota sampling technique. Technical efficiency was measured using Cobb-Douglas Stochastic Frontier. The result reveals that 1 land use, quantity of seed, K fertilizer contributed significantly increasing melon production, while N fertilizer decreased melon production significantly 2 technical efficiency indeces ranged from 0.40 to 0.99, with a mean of  0.77; 3 farmer’s experience gave significant influence to technical efficiency of melon farming in wet season.

  3. German central solar heating plants with seasonal heat storage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bauer, D.; Marx, R.; Nussbicker-Lux, J.; Ochs, F.; Heidemann, W. [Institute of Thermodynamics and Thermal Engineering (ITW), University of Stuttgart, Pfaffenwaldring 6, D-70550 Stuttgart (Germany); Mueller-Steinhagen, H. [Institute of Thermodynamics and Thermal Engineering (ITW), University of Stuttgart, Pfaffenwaldring 6, D-70550 Stuttgart (Germany); Institute of Technical Thermodynamics (ITT), German Aerospace Centre (DLR), Stuttgart (Germany)

    2010-04-15

    Central solar heating plants contribute to the reduction of CO{sub 2}-emissions and global warming. The combination of central solar heating plants with seasonal heat storage enables high solar fractions of 50% and more. Several pilot central solar heating plants with seasonal heat storage (CSHPSS) built in Germany since 1996 have proven the appropriate operation of these systems and confirmed the high solar fractions. Four different types of seasonal thermal energy stores have been developed, tested and monitored under realistic operation conditions: Hot-water thermal energy store (e.g. in Friedrichshafen), gravel-water thermal energy store (e.g. in Steinfurt-Borghorst), borehole thermal energy store (in Neckarsulm) and aquifer thermal energy store (in Rostock). In this paper, measured heat balances of several German CSHPSS are presented. The different types of thermal energy stores and the affiliated central solar heating plants and district heating systems are described. Their operational characteristics are compared using measured data gained from an extensive monitoring program. Thus long-term operational experiences such as the influence of net return temperatures are shown. (author)

  4. Influenza seasonality in Madagascar: the mysterious African free-runner.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonso, Wladimir Jimenez; Guillebaud, Julia; Viboud, Cecile; Razanajatovo, Norosoa Harline; Orelle, Arnaud; Zhou, Steven Zhixiang; Randrianasolo, Laurence; Heraud, Jean-Michel

    2015-05-01

    The seasonal drivers of influenza activity remain debated in tropical settings where epidemics are not clearly phased. Antananarivo is a particularly interesting case study because it is in Madagascar, an island situated in the tropics and with quantifiable connectivity levels to other countries. We aimed at disentangling the role of environmental forcing and population fluxes on influenza seasonality in Madagascar. We compiled weekly counts of laboratory-confirmed influenza-positive specimens for the period 2002 to 2012 collected in Antananarivo, with data available from sub-Saharan countries and countries contributing most foreign travelers to Madagascar. Daily climate indicators were compiled for the study period. Overall, influenza activity detected in Antananarivo predated that identified in temperate Northern Hemisphere locations. This activity presented poor temporal matching with viral activity in other countries from the African continent or countries highly connected to Madagascar excepted for A(H1N1)pdm09. Influenza detection in Antananarivo was not associated with travel activity and, although it was positively correlated with all climatic variables studied, such association was weak. The timing of influenza activity in Antananarivo is irregular, is not driven by climate, and does not align with that of countries in geographic proximity or highly connected to Madagascar. This work opens fresh questions regarding the drivers of influenza seasonality globally particularly in mid-latitude and less-connected regions to tailor vaccine strategies locally. © 2015 The Authors. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Dry season aerosol iron solubility in tropical northern Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. H. L. Winton

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Marine nitrogen fixation is co-limited by the supply of iron (Fe and phosphorus in large regions of the global ocean. The deposition of soluble aerosol Fe can initiate nitrogen fixation and trigger toxic algal blooms in nitrate-poor tropical waters. We present dry season soluble Fe data from the Savannah Fires in the Early Dry Season (SAFIRED campaign in northern Australia that reflects coincident dust and biomass burning sources of soluble aerosol Fe. The mean soluble and total aerosol Fe concentrations were 40 and 500 ng m−3 respectively. Our results show that while biomass burning species may not be a direct source of soluble Fe, biomass burning may substantially enhance the solubility of mineral dust. We observed fractional Fe solubility up to 12 % in mixed aerosols. Thus, Fe in dust may be more soluble in the tropics compared to higher latitudes due to higher concentrations of biomass-burning-derived reactive organic species in the atmosphere. In addition, biomass-burning-derived particles can act as a surface for aerosol Fe to bind during atmospheric transport and subsequently be released to the ocean upon deposition. As the aerosol loading is dominated by biomass burning emissions over the tropical waters in the dry season, additions of biomass-burning-derived soluble Fe could have harmful consequences for initiating nitrogen-fixing toxic algal blooms. Future research is required to quantify biomass-burning-derived particle sources of soluble Fe over tropical waters.

  6. Modeling seasonal changes of atmospheric carbon dioxide and carbon 13

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gillette, D.A.; Box, E.O.

    1986-01-01

    A two-dimensional (latitude-altitude) model of atmospheric CO 2 and δ 13 C was constructed to simulate some features of seasonal carbon cycle fluctuations. The model simulates air-sea exchange, atmospheric diffusion, and fossil fuel carbon sources, which are functions of time and latitude. In addition, it uses biosphere-atmosphere fluxes of carbon that are based on global-scale biological models of vegetation growth and decay. Results of the model show fair agreement with observational results for CO 2 and δ 13 C seasonal fluctuations. Their model results have far northern fluctuations with smaller amplitudes than are observed. Analysis of sources of CO 2 change at given latitudes shows that, for far southern latitudes, southern hemisphere biospheric fluxes are dominant in affecting the seasonal CO 2 fluctuations. Long-term decrease of δ 13 C for the model is larger than for observations. This may be due to errors in the formulation for oceanic fluxes for 13 C in the model or to a net uptake of carbon by the biosphere

  7. Eocene Antarctic seasonality inferred from high-resolution stable isotope profiles of fossil bivalves and driftwood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Judd, E. J.; Ivany, L. C.; Miklus, N. M.; Uveges, B. T.; Junium, C. K.

    2017-12-01

    The Eocene Epoch was a time of large-scale global climate change, experiencing both the warmest temperatures of the Cenozoic and the onset of southern hemisphere glaciation. The record of average global temperatures throughout this transition is reasonably well constrained, however considerably less is known about the accompanying changes in seasonality. Seasonally resolved temperature data provide a wealth of information not readily available from mean annual temperature data alone. These data are particularly important in the climatically sensitive high latitudes, as they can elucidate the means by which climate changes and the conditions necessary for the growth of ice sheets. Several recent studies, however, have suggested the potential for monsoonal precipitation regimes in the early-middle Eocene high latitudes, which complicates interpretation of seasonally resolved oxygen isotope records in shallow nearshore marine settings. Seasonal precipitation and runoff could create a brackish, isotopically depleted lens in these environments, depleting summertime δ18Ocarb and thereby inflating the inferred mean and range of isotope-derived temperatures. Here, we assess intra-annual variations in temperature in shallow nearshore Antarctic waters during the middle and late Eocene, inferred from high-resolution oxygen isotope profiles from accretionary bivalves of the La Meseta Formation, Seymour Island, Antarctica. To address concerns related to precipitation and runoff, we also subsample exceptionally preserved fossil driftwood from within the formation and use seasonal differences in δ13Corg values to estimate the ratio of summertime to wintertime precipitation. Late Eocene oxygen isotope profiles exhibit strongly attenuated seasonal amplitudes and more enriched mean annual values in comparison with data from the middle Eocene. Preliminary fossil wood data are not indicative of a strongly seasonal precipitation regime, implying that intra-annual variation in oxygen

  8. Comparison of empirical strategies to maximize GENEHUNTER lod scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, C H; Finch, S J; Mendell, N R; Gordon, D

    1999-01-01

    We compare four strategies for finding the settings of genetic parameters that maximize the lod scores reported in GENEHUNTER 1.2. The four strategies are iterated complete factorial designs, iterated orthogonal Latin hypercubes, evolutionary operation, and numerical optimization. The genetic parameters that are set are the phenocopy rate, penetrance, and disease allele frequency; both recessive and dominant models are considered. We selected the optimization of a recessive model on the Collaborative Study on the Genetics of Alcoholism (COGA) data of chromosome 1 for complete analysis. Convergence to a setting producing a local maximum required the evaluation of over 100 settings (for a time budget of 800 minutes on a Pentium II 300 MHz PC). Two notable local maxima were detected, suggesting the need for a more extensive search before claiming that a global maximum had been found. The orthogonal Latin hypercube design was the best strategy for finding areas that produced high lod scores with small numbers of evaluations. Numerical optimization starting from a region producing high lod scores was the strategy that found the highest maximum observed.

  9. Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression Applied to Credit Scoring Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro Henrique Melo Albuquerque

    Full Text Available Abstract This study used real data from a Brazilian financial institution on transactions involving Consumer Direct Credit (CDC, granted to clients residing in the Distrito Federal (DF, to construct credit scoring models via Logistic Regression and Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression (GWLR techniques. The aims were: to verify whether the factors that influence credit risk differ according to the borrower’s geographic location; to compare the set of models estimated via GWLR with the global model estimated via Logistic Regression, in terms of predictive power and financial losses for the institution; and to verify the viability of using the GWLR technique to develop credit scoring models. The metrics used to compare the models developed via the two techniques were the AICc informational criterion, the accuracy of the models, the percentage of false positives, the sum of the value of false positive debt, and the expected monetary value of portfolio default compared with the monetary value of defaults observed. The models estimated for each region in the DF were distinct in their variables and coefficients (parameters, with it being concluded that credit risk was influenced differently in each region in the study. The Logistic Regression and GWLR methodologies presented very close results, in terms of predictive power and financial losses for the institution, and the study demonstrated viability in using the GWLR technique to develop credit scoring models for the target population in the study.

  10. An Assessment of the Skill of GEOS-5 Seasonal Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ham, Yoo-Geun; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Rienecker, Michele M.

    2013-01-01

    The seasonal forecast skill of the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office coupled global climate model (CGCM) is evaluated based on an ensemble of 9-month lead forecasts for the period 1993 to 2010. The results from the current version (V2) of the CGCM consisting of the GEOS-5 AGM coupled to the MOM4 ocean model are compared with those from an earlier version (V1) in which the AGCM (the NSIPP model) was coupled to the Poseidon Ocean Model. It was found that the correlation skill of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) forecasts is generally better in V2, especially over the sub-tropical and tropical central and eastern Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean. Furthermore, the improvement in skill in V2 mainly comes from better forecasts of the developing phase of ENSO from boreal spring to summer. The skill of ENSO forecasts initiated during the boreal winter season, however, shows no improvement in terms of correlation skill, and is in fact slightly worse in terms of root mean square error (RMSE). The degradation of skill is found to be due to an excessive ENSO amplitude. For V1, the ENSO amplitude is too strong in forecasts starting in boreal spring and summer, which causes large RMSE in the forecast. For V2, the ENSO amplitude is slightly stronger than that in observations and V1 for forecasts starting in boreal winter season. An analysis of the terms in the SST tendency equation, shows that this is mainly due to an excessive zonal advective feedback. In addition, V2 forecasts that are initiated during boreal winter season, exhibit a slower phase transition of El Nino, which is consistent with larger amplitude of ENSO after the ENSO peak season. It is found that this is due to weak discharge of equatorial Warm Water Volume (WWV). In both observations and V1, the discharge of equatorial WWV leads the equatorial geostrophic easterly current so as to damp the El Nino starting in January. This process is delayed by about 2 months in V2 due to the slower phase

  11. The influence of crop production and socioeconomic factors on seasonal household dietary diversity in Burkina Faso.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Somé, Jérôme W; Jones, Andrew D

    2018-01-01

    Households in low-income settings are vulnerable to seasonal changes in dietary diversity because of fluctuations in food availability and access. We assessed seasonal differences in household dietary diversity in Burkina Faso, and determined the extent to which household socioeconomic status and crop production diversity modify changes in dietary diversity across seasons, using data from the nationally representative 2014 Burkina Faso Continuous Multisectoral Survey (EMC). A household dietary diversity score based on nine food groups was created from household food consumption data collected during four rounds of the 2014 EMC. Plot-level crop production data, and data on household assets and education were used to create variables on crop diversity and household socioeconomic status, respectively. Analyses included data for 10,790 households for which food consumption data were available for at least one round. Accounting for repeated measurements and controlling for the complex survey design and confounding covariates using a weighted multi-level model, household dietary diversity was significantly higher during both lean seasons periods, and higher still during the harvest season as compared to the post-harvest season (mean: post-harvest: 4.76 (SE 0.04); beginning of lean: 5.13 (SE 0.05); end of lean: 5.21 (SE 0.05); harvest: 5.72 (SE 0.04)), but was not different between the beginning and the end of lean season. Seasonal differences in household dietary diversity were greater among households with higher food expenditures, greater crop production, and greater monetary value of crops sale (P<0.05). Seasonal changes in household dietary diversity in Burkina Faso may reflect nutritional differences among agricultural households, and may be modified both by households' socioeconomic status and agricultural characteristics.

  12. CERAD Neuropsychological Total Scores Reflect Cortical Thinning in Prodromal Alzheimer's Disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Paajanen

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: Sensitive cognitive global scores are beneficial in screening and monitoring for prodromal Alzheimer's disease (AD. Early cortical changes provide a novel opportunity for validating established cognitive total scores against the biological disease markers. Methods: We examined how two different total scores of the Consortium to Establish a Registry for Alzheimer's Disease (CERAD battery and the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE are associated with cortical thickness (CTH in mild cognitive impairment (MCI and prodromal AD. Cognitive and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI data of 22 progressive MCI, 78 stable MCI, and 98 control subjects, and MRI data of 103 AD patients of the prospective multicenter study were analyzed. Results: CERAD total scores correlated with mean CTH more strongly (r = 0.34-0.38, p Conclusion: CERAD total scores are sensitive to the CTH signature of prodromal AD, which supports their biological validity in detecting early disease-related cognitive changes.

  13. Facilitating the Interpretation of English Language Proficiency Scores: Combining Scale Anchoring and Test Score Mapping Methodologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powers, Donald; Schedl, Mary; Papageorgiou, Spiros

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this study was to develop, for the benefit of both test takers and test score users, enhanced "TOEFL ITP"® test score reports that go beyond the simple numerical scores that are currently reported. To do so, we applied traditional scale anchoring (proficiency scaling) to item difficulty data in order to develop performance…

  14. Seasonality shows evidence for polygenic architecture and genetic correlation with schizophrenia and bipolar disorder – a meta-analysis of genetic studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrne, Enda M; Raheja, Uttam; Stephens, Sarah H.; Heath, Andrew C; Madden, Pamela AF; Vaswani, Dipika; Nijjar, Gagan V.; Ryan, Kathleen A.; Youssufi, Hassaan; Gehrman, Philip R; Shuldiner, Alan R; Martin, Nicholas G; Montgomery, Grant W; Wray, Naomi R; Nelson, Elliot C; Mitchell, Braxton D; Postolache, Teodor T

    2015-01-01

    Objective To test common genetic variants for association with seasonality (seasonal changes in mood and behavior) and to investigate whether there are shared genetic risk factors between psychiatric disorders and seasonality. Methods A meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) conducted in Australian and Amish populations in whom the Seasonal Pattern Assessment Questionnaire (SPAQ) had been administered. The total sample size was 4,156 individuals. Genetic risk scores based on results from prior large GWAS studies of bipolar disorder (BD), major depressive disorder (MDD), and schizophrenia (SCZ) were calculated to test for overlap in risk between psychiatric disorders and seasonality. Results The most significant association was with rs11825064 (p = 1.7 × 10−6, β = 0.64, S.E = 0.13), an intergenic SNP found on chromosome 11. The evidence for overlap in risk factors was strongest for SCZ and seasonality, with the SCZ genetic profile scores explaining 3% of the variance in log-transformed GSS. BD genetic profile scores were also significantly associated with seasonality, although at much weaker levels, and no evidence for overlap in risk was detected between MDD and seasonality. Conclusions Common SNPs of very large effect likely do not exist for seasonality in the populations examined. As expected, there was overlapping genetic risk factors for BD (but not MDD) with seasonality. Unexpectedly, the risk for SCZ and seasonality had the largest overlap, an unprecedented finding that requires replication in other populations, and has potential clinical implications considering overlapping cognitive deficits in seasonal affective disorders and SCZ PMID:25562672

  15. Surgical Apgar Score Predicts Post- Laparatomy Complications

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    calculated Surgical Apgar Scores for 152 patients during a 6-month study ... major postoperative complications and/or death within. 30 days of ... respond to and control hemodynamic changes during a ... abdominal injury (18.42%). Intestinal ...

  16. Budget Scoring: An Impediment to Alternative Financing

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Summers, Donald E; San Miguel, Joseph G

    2007-01-01

    .... One of the major impediments to using alternative forms of procurement financing for acquiring defense capabilities is in the budgetary treatment, or scoring, of these initiatives by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO...

  17. Film scoring today - Theory, practice and analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Flach, Paula Sophie

    2012-01-01

    This thesis considers film scoring by taking a closer look at the theoretical discourse throughout the last decades, examining current production practice of film music and showcasing a musical analysis of the film Inception (2010).

  18. Climiate Resilience Screening Index and Domain Scores

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — CRSI and related-domain scores for all 50 states and 3135 counties in the U.S. This dataset is not publicly accessible because: They are already available within the...

  19. Seasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in NCEP CFSv2: forecast and predictability error

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pokhrel, Samir; Saha, Subodh Kumar; Dhakate, Ashish; Rahman, Hasibur; Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S.; Salunke, Kiran; Hazra, Anupam; Sujith, K.; Sikka, D. R.

    2016-04-01

    A detailed analysis of sensitivity to the initial condition for the simulation of the Indian summer monsoon using retrospective forecast by the latest version of the Climate Forecast System version-2 (CFSv2) is carried out. This study primarily focuses on the tropical region of Indian and Pacific Ocean basin, with special emphasis on the Indian land region. The simulated seasonal mean and the inter-annual standard deviations of rainfall, upper and lower level atmospheric circulations and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) tend to be more skillful as the lead forecast time decreases (5 month lead to 0 month lead time i.e. L5-L0). In general spatial correlation (bias) increases (decreases) as forecast lead time decreases. This is further substantiated by their averaged value over the selected study regions over the Indian and Pacific Ocean basins. The tendency of increase (decrease) of model bias with increasing (decreasing) forecast lead time also indicates the dynamical drift of the model. Large scale lower level circulation (850 hPa) shows enhancement of anomalous westerlies (easterlies) over the tropical region of the Indian Ocean (Western Pacific Ocean), which indicates the enhancement of model error with the decrease in lead time. At the upper level circulation (200 hPa) biases in both tropical easterly jet and subtropical westerlies jet tend to decrease as the lead time decreases. Despite enhancement of the prediction skill, mean SST bias seems to be insensitive to the initialization. All these biases are significant and together they make CFSv2 vulnerable to seasonal uncertainties in all the lead times. Overall the zeroth lead (L0) seems to have the best skill, however, in case of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), the 3 month lead forecast time (L3) has the maximum ISMR prediction skill. This is valid using different independent datasets, wherein these maximum skill scores are 0.64, 0.42 and 0.57 with respect to the Global Precipitation Climatology Project

  20. Seasonal reproduction of vampire bats and its relation to seasonality of bovine rabies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lord, R D

    1992-04-01

    Studies of pregnancy and lactation in vampire bats (Desmodus rotundus) in northern Argentina over a 4 yr period showed an inverse relationship between prevalence of pregnancy and lactation, the consequence of birth and onset of lactation, which was correlated with the wet season. The seasonal influx of young susceptibles into the vampire population in the wet season coincided with the well known increase in vampire transmitted rabies in that season.

  1. Strategies for Primary Prevention of Coronary Heart Disease Based on Risk Stratification by the ACC/AHA Lipid Guidelines, ATP III Guidelines, Coronary Calcium Scoring, and C-Reactive Protein, and a Global Treat-All Strategy: A Comparative--Effectiveness Modeling Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin Z Galper

    Full Text Available Several approaches have been proposed for risk-stratification and primary prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD, but their comparative and cost-effectiveness is unknown.We constructed a state-transition microsimulation model to compare multiple approaches to the primary prevention of CHD in a simulated cohort of men aged 45-75 and women 55-75. Risk-stratification strategies included the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA guidelines on the treatment of blood cholesterol, the Adult Treatment Panel (ATP III guidelines, and approaches based on coronary artery calcium (CAC scoring and C-reactive protein (CRP. Additionally we assessed a treat-all strategy in which all individuals were prescribed either moderate-dose or high-dose statins and all males received low-dose aspirin. Outcome measures included CHD events, costs, medication-related side effects, radiation-attributable cancers, and quality-adjusted-life-years (QALYs over a 30-year timeframe.Treat-all with high-dose statins dominated all other strategies for both men and women, gaining 15.7 million QALYs, preventing 7.3 million myocardial infarctions, and saving over $238 billion, compared to the status quo, far outweighing its associated adverse events including bleeding, hepatitis, myopathy, and new-onset diabetes. ACC/AHA guidelines were more cost-effective than ATP III guidelines for both men and women despite placing 8.7 million more people on statins. For women at low CHD risk, treat-all with high-dose statins was more likely to cause a statin-related adverse event than to prevent a CHD event.Despite leading to a greater proportion of the population placed on statin therapy, the ACC/AHA guidelines are more cost-effective than ATP III. Even so, at generic prices, treating all men and women with statins and all men with low-dose aspirin appears to be more cost-effective than all risk-stratification approaches for the primary prevention of CHD

  2. Strategies for Primary Prevention of Coronary Heart Disease Based on Risk Stratification by the ACC/AHA Lipid Guidelines, ATP III Guidelines, Coronary Calcium Scoring, and C-Reactive Protein, and a Global Treat-All Strategy: A Comparative--Effectiveness Modeling Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galper, Benjamin Z.; Wang, Y. Claire; Einstein, Andrew J.

    2015-01-01

    Background Several approaches have been proposed for risk-stratification and primary prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD), but their comparative and cost-effectiveness is unknown. Methods We constructed a state-transition microsimulation model to compare multiple approaches to the primary prevention of CHD in a simulated cohort of men aged 45–75 and women 55–75. Risk-stratification strategies included the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) guidelines on the treatment of blood cholesterol, the Adult Treatment Panel (ATP) III guidelines, and approaches based on coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring and C-reactive protein (CRP). Additionally we assessed a treat-all strategy in which all individuals were prescribed either moderate-dose or high-dose statins and all males received low-dose aspirin. Outcome measures included CHD events, costs, medication-related side effects, radiation-attributable cancers, and quality-adjusted-life-years (QALYs) over a 30-year timeframe. Results Treat-all with high-dose statins dominated all other strategies for both men and women, gaining 15.7 million QALYs, preventing 7.3 million myocardial infarctions, and saving over $238 billion, compared to the status quo, far outweighing its associated adverse events including bleeding, hepatitis, myopathy, and new-onset diabetes. ACC/AHA guidelines were more cost-effective than ATP III guidelines for both men and women despite placing 8.7 million more people on statins. For women at low CHD risk, treat-all with high-dose statins was more likely to cause a statin-related adverse event than to prevent a CHD event. Conclusions Despite leading to a greater proportion of the population placed on statin therapy, the ACC/AHA guidelines are more cost-effective than ATP III. Even so, at generic prices, treating all men and women with statins and all men with low-dose aspirin appears to be more cost-effective than all risk-stratification approaches for the

  3. Model for predicting the injury severity score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagiwara, Shuichi; Oshima, Kiyohiro; Murata, Masato; Kaneko, Minoru; Aoki, Makoto; Kanbe, Masahiko; Nakamura, Takuro; Ohyama, Yoshio; Tamura, Jun'ichi

    2015-07-01

    To determine the formula that predicts the injury severity score from parameters that are obtained in the emergency department at arrival. We reviewed the medical records of trauma patients who were transferred to the emergency department of Gunma University Hospital between January 2010 and December 2010. The injury severity score, age, mean blood pressure, heart rate, Glasgow coma scale, hemoglobin, hematocrit, red blood cell count, platelet count, fibrinogen, international normalized ratio of prothrombin time, activated partial thromboplastin time, and fibrin degradation products, were examined in those patients on arrival. To determine the formula that predicts the injury severity score, multiple linear regression analysis was carried out. The injury severity score was set as the dependent variable, and the other parameters were set as candidate objective variables. IBM spss Statistics 20 was used for the statistical analysis. Statistical significance was set at P  Watson ratio was 2.200. A formula for predicting the injury severity score in trauma patients was developed with ordinary parameters such as fibrin degradation products and mean blood pressure. This formula is useful because we can predict the injury severity score easily in the emergency department.

  4. Technology Performance Level (TPL) Scoring Tool

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weber, Jochem [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Roberts, Jesse D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Costello, Ronan [Wave Venture, Penstraze (United Kingdom); Bull, Diana L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Babarit, Aurelien [Ecole Centrale de Nantes (France). Lab. of Research in Hydrodynamics, Energetics, and Atmospheric Environment (LHEEA); Neilson, Kim [Ramboll, Copenhagen (Denmark); Bittencourt, Claudio [DNV GL, London (United Kingdom); Kennedy, Ben [Wave Venture, Penstraze (United Kingdom)

    2016-09-01

    Three different ways of combining scores are used in the revised formulation. These are arithmetic mean, geometric mean and multiplication with normalisation. Arithmetic mean is used when combining scores that measure similar attributes, e.g. used for combining costs. The arithmetic mean has the property that it is similar to a logical OR, e.g. when combining costs it does not matter what the individual costs are only what the combined cost is. Geometric mean and Multiplication are used when combining scores that measure disparate attributes. Multiplication is similar to a logical AND, it is used to combine ‘must haves.’ As a result, this method is more punitive than the geometric mean; to get a good score in the combined result it is necessary to have a good score in ALL of the inputs. e.g. the different types of survivability are ‘must haves.’ On balance, the revised TPL is probably less punitive than the previous spreadsheet, multiplication is used sparingly as a method of combining scores. This is in line with the feedback of the Wave Energy Prize judges.

  5. GalaxyDock BP2 score: a hybrid scoring function for accurate protein-ligand docking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baek, Minkyung; Shin, Woong-Hee; Chung, Hwan Won; Seok, Chaok

    2017-07-01

    Protein-ligand docking is a useful tool for providing atomic-level understanding of protein functions in nature and design principles for artificial ligands or proteins with desired properties. The ability to identify the true binding pose of a ligand to a target protein among numerous possible candidate poses is an essential requirement for successful protein-ligand docking. Many previously developed docking scoring functions were trained to reproduce experimental binding affinities and were also used for scoring binding poses. However, in this study, we developed a new docking scoring function, called GalaxyDock BP2 Score, by directly training the scoring power of binding poses. This function is a hybrid of physics-based, empirical, and knowledge-based score terms that are balanced to strengthen the advantages of each component. The performance of the new scoring function exhibits significant improvement over existing scoring functions in decoy pose discrimination tests. In addition, when the score is used with the GalaxyDock2 protein-ligand docking program, it outperformed other state-of-the-art docking programs in docking tests on the Astex diverse set, the Cross2009 benchmark set, and the Astex non-native set. GalaxyDock BP2 Score and GalaxyDock2 with this score are freely available at http://galaxy.seoklab.org/softwares/galaxydock.html.

  6. Conjunctival provocation tests: a predictive factor for patients' seasonal allergic rhinoconjunctivitis symptoms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kruse, Kristian; Gerwin, Eva; Eichel, Andrea; Shah-Hosseini, Kija; Mösges, Ralph

    2015-01-01

    No parameters currently exist that can reliably predict the impact of preseasonal immunotherapy on the symptoms occurring during the season. The purpose of our studies was to prove a correlation between preseasonal conjunctival allergen challenge and coseasonal primary clinical endpoints using the total combined score, ie, a combination of symptoms and medication score, as the primary outcome parameter. Twelve weeks before both the birch and the grass pollen seasons, 2 separate prospective, double-blind, randomized, controlled studies were conducted followed by posttrial observations for each study during the active season. In the studies, patients who reacted to conjunctival allergen challenge were treated with sublingual immunotherapy tablets that contain either birch and/or alder or grass pollen allergoids. In all, 158 patients were included in the grass and 160 in the tree pollen study; of these, 100 and 109 patients, respectively, took part in the posttrial observations. When comparing patients with and without a positive reaction in the final conjunctival allergen challenge, the results revealed a significant difference in the total combined score (grass: P < .001; birch: P = .025). The same applied to the rescue medication score (P = .005; P = .025). A significant difference regarding the rhinoconjunctivitis symptom score was shown in the grass pollen study (P = .002), and the difference of well days was significant in the tree pollen study (P = .049). When comparing patients based on their reaction to allergen challenge after immunotherapy, each study leads to similarly significant results. Therefore, conjunctival allergen challenge can be used effectively as a parameter to predict allergic rhinoconjunctivitis symptoms during the season in patients treated with preseasonal sublingual immunotherapy tablets. Whether this can be transferred to untreated patients needs to be determined. Copyright © 2015 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology

  7. Reliability, validity and sensitivity to change of neurogenic bowel dysfunction score in patients with spinal cord injury

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Erdem, D.; Hava, D.; Keskinoglu, P.

    2017-01-01

    cord injury (SCI). The reliability of NBD score was assessed by test-retest reliability and internal consistency. Cronbach's alpha coefficient was calculated to determine internal consistency. The construct validity was evaluated by exploring correlations between the NBD score and SF-36 scales, patient...... assessment of impact of NBD on quality of life (QoL) and the physician global assessment (PGA). The Global Rating of Change (GRC) scale was used to assess the change of NBD to investigate the sensitivity of the score to change. Results: Cronbach's alpha coefficient was 0.547. In test-retest reliability...

  8. Global challenges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blix, H.

    1990-01-01

    A major challenge now facing the world is the supply of energy needed for growth and development in a manner which is not only economically viable but also environmentally acceptable and sustainable in view of the demands of and risks to future generations. The internationally most significant pollutants from energy production through fossil fuels are SO 2 and NO x which cause acid rain, and CO 2 which is the most significant contributor to the greenhouse effect. Nuclear power, now providing about 17% of the world's electricity and 5% of the primary energy already is making a notable contribution to avoiding these emissions. While the industrialized countries will need more energy and especially electricity in the future, the needs of the developing countries are naturally much larger and present a tremendous challenge to the shaping of the world's future energy supply system. The advanced countries will have to accept special responsibilities, as they can most easily use advanced technologies and they have been and remain the main contributors to the environmental problems we now face. Energy conservation and resort to new renewable energy sources, though highly desirable, appear inadequate alone to meet the challenges. The world can hardly afford to do without an increased use of nuclear power, although it is strongly contested in many countries. The objections raised against the nuclear option focus on safety, waste management and disposal problems and the risk for proliferation of nuclear weapons. These issues are not without their problems. The risk of proliferation exists but will not appreciably diminish with lesser global reliance on nuclear power. The waste issue is more of a political than a technical problem. The use of nuclear power, or any other energy source, will never be at zero risk, but the risks are constantly reduced by new techniques and practices. The IAEA sees it as one of its priority tasks to promote such techniques. (author)

  9. Carrier portfolio management for shipping seasonal products

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lu, T.; Fransoo, J.C.; Lee, C.-Y.

    2017-01-01

    Many seasonal products are transported via ocean carriers from origin to destination markets. The shipments arriving earlier in the market may sell at higher prices, but faster shipping services can be costly. In this paper, we study a newsvendor-type shipper who transports and sells seasonal

  10. Seasonality of congenital anomalies in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Luteijn, Johannes Michiel; Dolk, Helen; Addor, Marie-Claude

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: This study describes seasonality of congenital anomalies in Europe to provide a baseline against which to assess the impact of specific time varying exposures such as the H1N1 pandemic influenza, and to provide a comprehensive and recent picture of seasonality and its possible relatio...

  11. Ensemble methods for seasonal limited area forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arritt, Raymond W.; Anderson, Christopher J.; Takle, Eugene S.

    2004-01-01

    The ensemble prediction methods used for seasonal limited area forecasts were examined by comparing methods for generating ensemble simulations of seasonal precipitation. The summer 1993 model over the north-central US was used as a test case. The four methods examined included the lagged-average...

  12. 489 SEASONAL VARIATION IN PHYSICO-CHEMICAL ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Osondu

    higher concentration during the wet season than in the dry season in all the Groups, except for BOD, sulphate and iron. ... availability and quality of groundwater due to waste and ... using 1 litre plastic containers that were treated with 3-4ml of ...

  13. Retrospective assessment of seasonal allergic symptoms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bodtger, U; Poulsen, Lars K.; Malling, H-J

    2003-01-01

    The history of the severity of seasonal allergic symptoms is often obtained post-seasonally as a retrospective assessment. Correct rating is essential when determining the efficacy of pharmaceutical treatment, indications for allergen-specific immunotherapy (SIT), or inclusion into controlled cli...

  14. Modeling seasonality in bimonthly time series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    1992-01-01

    textabstractA recurring issue in modeling seasonal time series variables is the choice of the most adequate model for the seasonal movements. One selection method for quarterly data is proposed in Hylleberg et al. (1990). Market response models are often constructed for bimonthly variables, and

  15. Markov Chain Estimation of Avian Seasonal Fecundity

    Science.gov (United States)

    To explore the consequences of modeling decisions on inference about avian seasonal fecundity we generalize previous Markov chain (MC) models of avian nest success to formulate two different MC models of avian seasonal fecundity that represent two different ways to model renestin...

  16. Seasonality of Congenital Anomalies in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Luteijn, Johannes Michiel; Dolk, Helen; Addor, Marie-Claude; Arriola, Larraitz; Barisic, Ingeborg; Bianchi, Fabrizio; Calzolari, Elisa; Draper, Elizabeth; Garne, Ester; Gatt, Miriam; Haeusler, Martin; Khoshnood, Babak; McDonnell, Bob; Nelen, Vera; O'Mahony, Mary; Mullaney, Carmel; Queisser-Luft, Annette; Rankin, Judith; Tucker, David; Verellen-Dumoulin, Christine; de Walle, Hermien; Yevtushok, Lyubov

    BackgroundThis study describes seasonality of congenital anomalies in Europe to provide a baseline against which to assess the impact of specific time varying exposures such as the H1N1 pandemic influenza, and to provide a comprehensive and recent picture of seasonality and its possible relation to

  17. Seasonal variations in hospital admissions for mania

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Medici, Clara Reece; Vestergaard, Claus Høstrup; Hadzi-Pavlovic, Dusan

    2016-01-01

    in summer. Higher admission rates were associated with more sunshine, more ultraviolet radiation, higher temperature and less snow but were unassociated with rainfall. We did not find a secular trend in the seasonal pattern. Finally, neither gender nor admission status impacted on the overall seasonal...

  18. Seasonal inter-relationships in atmospheric methane and companion delta13C values: effects of sinks and sources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lassey, K. R.; Mikaloff Fletcher, S. E. (NIWA, Wellington (New Zealand)), e-mail: k.lassey@niwa.co.nz; Allan, W. (Allan Planning and Research Ltd., Petone (New Zealand))

    2011-07-15

    Recent developments in applying carbon-isotope information to better understand regional and global methane budgets infer a strong role by a highly fractionating seasonal sink such as atomic chlorine. Specifically, OH as the predominant seasonal sink cannot account for the 'phase ellipses' based on observed seasonal cycles of methane mixing ratio and isotope ratio, delta13C. Although a strong role by atomic chlorine is inferred empirically, open questions remain about the interplay between sources and sinks in determining the properties of phase ellipses. This paper employs a simple didactic model of the seasonal cycling of atmospheric methane to understand such interplay. We demonstrate that a single seasonal sink and seasonal source act together to imprint anti-phase seasonalities on atmospheric methane and delta13C, which lead to phase ellipses that collapse onto a straight line with slope characteristic of that sink. This explains empirical findings of these anti-phase relationships in three-dimensional modelling studies. We also demonstrate that multiple seasonal sinks acting with a seasonal source can yield surprising properties for the phase ellipse that not only explain some features of phase ellipses reported in modelling studies but also have the potential to explain marked inter-annual variation in phase ellipses based on observation

  19. Poverty Mapping Project: Global Subnational Prevalence of Child Malnutrition

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Global Subnational Prevalence of Child Malnutrition dataset consists of estimates of the percentage of children with weight-for-age z-scores that are more than...

  20. Seasonal streamflow prediction by a combined climate-hydrologic system for river basins of Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuo, Chun-Chao; Gan, Thian Yew; Yu, Pao-Shan

    2010-06-01

    SummaryA combined, climate-hydrologic system with three components to predict the streamflow of two river basins of Taiwan at one season (3-month) lead time for the NDJ and JFM seasons was developed. The first component consists of the wavelet-based, ANN-GA model (Artificial Neural Network calibrated by Genetic Algorithm) which predicts the seasonal rainfall by using selected sea surface temperature (SST) as predictors, given that SST are generally predictable by climate models up to 6-month lead time. For the second component, three disaggregation models, Valencia and Schaake (VS), Lane, and Canonical Random Cascade Model (CRCM), were tested to compare the accuracy of seasonal rainfall disaggregated by these three models to 3-day time scale rainfall data. The third component consists of the continuous rainfall-runoff model modified from HBV (called the MHBV) and calibrated by a global optimization algorithm against the observed rainfall and streamflow data of the Shihmen and Tsengwen river basins of Taiwan. The proposed system was tested, first by disaggregating the predicted seasonal rainfall of ANN-GA to rainfall of 3-day time step using the Lane model; then the disaggregated rainfall data was used to drive the calibrated MHBV to predict the streamflow for both river basins at 3-day time step up to a season's lead time. Overall, the streamflow predicted by this combined system for the NDJ season, which is better than that of the JFM season, will be useful for the seasonal planning and management of water resources of these two river basins of Taiwan.

  1. A season of football injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stokes, M A; McKeever, J A; McQuillan, R F; O'Higgins, N J

    1994-06-01

    All rugby and soccer players presenting to the Accident & Emergency department during the football season 1992-1993 (a total of 871) were prospectively studied to compare the injuries sustained in the two sports. The nature and site of injury, treatment required, age, fitness, experience and position of the player, situation giving rise to injury, and medical attention at the grounds were all analysed. The results show that rugby and soccer players had the same number of injuries, and while there were some differences in the nature of the injuries, there was no difference in overall severity. Rugby flankers and soccer goalkeepers are particularly at risk. Competitive matches produce more injuries than training sessions. Experience or fitness did not appear to be a factor and 45% of rugby injuries and 15% of soccer injuries were from school matches. Law changes (e.g. the rugby scrum and the use of gum-shields) have reduced some injuries, but other areas (e.g. jumping for the ball in soccer, rucks and mauls in rugby) also warrant consideration. There was one death, but no spinal cord injuries. Medical attention at the grounds was limited. Rugby injuries, therefore, do not appear to be more numerous or severe than soccer injuries. Law changes have been of benefit but they need to be enforced and perhaps more should be considered. Medical attention at sports grounds could be improved and Registers of injuries kept by the sporting bodies would be of benefit.

  2. Mars’ seasonal mesospheric transport seen through nitric oxide nightglow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milby, Zachariah; Stiepen, Arnaud; Jain, Sonal; Schneider, Nicholas M.; Deighan, Justin; Gonzalez-Galindo, Francisco; Gerard, Jean-Claude; Stevens, Michael H.; Bougher, Stephen W.; Evans, J. Scott; Stewart, A. Ian; Chaffin, Michael; Crismani, Matteo; McClintock, William E.; Clarke, John T.; Holsclaw, Greg; Montmessin, Franck; Lefevre, Franck; Forget, Francois; Lo, Daniel Y.; Hubert, Benoît; Jakosky, Bruce

    2017-10-01

    We analyze the ultraviolet nightglow in the atmosphere of Mars through nitric oxide (NO) δ and γ band emissions as observed by the Imaging UltraViolet Spectrograph (IUVS) instrument onboard the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) spacecraft when it is at apoapse and periapse.In the dayside thermosphere of Mars, solar extreme-ultraviolet radiation dissociates CO2 and N2 molecules. O(3P) and N(4S) atoms are carried from the dayside to the nightside by the day-night hemispheric transport process, where they descend through the nightside mesosphere and can radiatively recombine to form NO(C2Π). The excited molecules rapidly relax by emitting photons in the UV δ and γ bands. These emissions are indicators of the N and O atom fluxes from the dayside to Mars’ nightside and the descending circulation pattern from the nightside thermosphere to the mesosphere (e.g. Bertaux et al., 2005 ; Bougher et al., 1990 ; Cox et al., 2008 ; Gagné et al., 2013 ; Gérard et al., 2008 ; Stiepen et al., 2015, 2017).Observations of these emissions are gathered from a large dataset spanning different seasonal conditions.We present discussion on the variability in the brightness and altitude of the emission with season, geographical position (longitude), and local time, along with possible interpretation by local and global changes in the mesosphere dynamics. We show the possible impact of atmospheric waves forcing longitudinal variability and data-to-model comparisons indicating a wave-3 structure in Mars’ nightside mesosphere. Quantitative comparison with calculations of the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique-Mars Global Climate Model (LMD-MGCM) suggests the model reproduces both the global trend of NO nightglow emission and its seasonal variation. However, it also indicates large discrepancies, with the emission up to a factor 50 times fainter in the model, suggesting that the predicted transport is too efficient toward the night winter pole in the thermosphere by

  3. REPRODUCTIVE SEASONALITY OF SHEEP IN MEXICO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaime Arroyo

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available In order to discuss and analyze the available information concerning the seasonal breeding behavior of sheep in Mexico, this review was conducted. We analyzed the neuroendocrine basis that modulate the annual reproductive cycle in sheep and then discussed the degree of reproductive seasonality in Creole sheep wool, breeds originating in high latitudes and hair sheep, mainly in Pelibuey ewes. The Creole sheep wool show continuous annual reproductive activity and short seasonal anestrous. The females of northern origin, express seasonal reproductive activity, similar to that observed in individuals geographically located at latitudes above 35º. Pelibuey sheep show variable annual reproductive behavior with reduced anestrus or lack thereof.  It is suggested that the neuroendocrine mechanisms regulating seasonal anestrus in ewes, are active in the sheep of northern origin that live in Mexico, in a manner contrary is not activated in Creole and hair sheep.

  4. A Malthusian Model for all Seasons

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sharp, Paul Richard; Weisdorf, Jacob Louis

    It has become popular to argue (e.g. Clark 2007) that all societies were Malthusian until about 1800. At the same time, the phenomenon of surplus labour is well-documented for historical (as well as modern) pre-industrial societies. This study discusses the paradox of surplus labour in a Malthusian...... economy. Inspired by the work of Boserup (1965) and others, and in contrast to the Lewis (1954) approach, we suggest that the phenomenon of surplus labour is best understood through an acceptance of the importance of seasonality in agriculture. Boserup observed that the harvest season was invariably...... associated with labour shortages (the high-season bottleneck on production), although there might be labour surplus during the low season. We introduce the concept of seasonality into a stylized Malthusian model, and endogenize the extent of agricultural labour input, which is then used to calculate labour...

  5. Season of birth shapes neonatal immune function

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thysen, Anna Hammerich; Rasmussen, Morten Arendt; Kreiner-Møller, Eskil

    2016-01-01

    Birth season has been reported to be a risk factor for several immune-mediated diseases. We hypothesized that this association is mediated by differential changes in neonatal immune phenotype and function with birth season. We sought to investigate the influence of season of birth on cord blood...... immune cell subsets and inflammatory mediators in neonatal airways. Cord blood was phenotyped for 26 different immune cell subsets, and at 1 month of age, 20 cytokines and chemokines were quantified in airway mucosal lining fluid. Multivariate partial least squares discriminant analyses were applied...... to determine whether certain immune profiles dominate by birth season, and correlations between individual cord blood immune cells and early airway immune mediators were defined. We found a birth season-related fluctuation in neonatal immune cell subsets and in early-life airway mucosal immune function...

  6. A new prognostic scoring system for perforation peritonitis secondary to duodenal ulcers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nomani, A.Z.; Qureshi, M.S.

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To identify prognostic factors for perforated duodenal ulcers and to devise and assess a new scoring system. Methods: The observational prospective study was conducted at the Mayo Hospital, Lahore in two phases: from March 2010 to September 2011; and from October 2011 to July 2012. It included patients with duodenal ulcer perforation who were observed for identifying factors predicting 30-day prognosis. Each of the predictive factor was given a score based on its severity to devise a new scoring system. Chi-square was used for univariate analysis. Multivariate analysis was done using forward stepwise regression. Accuracy of the new scoring system was calculated using receiver operating curve analysis and its validity was evaluated in the second phase of the study. Results: Predictors of poor prognosis included multiple gut perforations, size of largest perforation >0.5cm, amount of peritoneal fluid >1000ml, simple closure, development of complications, post-operative systemic septicaemia and winter/autumn season of presentation. Overall 30-day mortality rate was 32.3% (n=32) and morbidity rate was 21.2% (n=21). The mean score was higher in the ones with poor prognosis (p=0.001). Similarly, the mean score was greater in those with grave prognosis (p=0.001). The scoring system had an overall sensitivity of 85.12% and specificity of 80.67% and was favourably comparable to other scoring systems. Conclusion: The new scoring system is a useful tool in predicting 30-day prognosis for perforated duodenal ulcers in acid peptic disease. (author)

  7. Seasonal variations in sleep disorders of nurses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Yuanmay; Lam, Calvin; Chen, Su-Ru; Sithole, Trevor; Chung, Min-Huey

    2017-04-01

    To investigate the difference between nurses and the general population regarding seasonal variations in sleep disorders during 2004-2008. The effects of season and group interaction on sleep disorders with regard to different comorbidities were also examined. Studies on seasonal variations in sleep disorders were mainly conducted in Norway for the general population. Furthermore, whether different comorbidities cause seasonal variations in sleep disorders in nurses remains unknown. A retrospective study. Data from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database were used in generalised estimating equation Poisson distribution models to investigate the differences in sleep disorders between nurses and the general population diagnosed with sleep disorders (each n = 7643) as well as the interaction effects of sleep disorders between the groups with respect to different seasons. Furthermore, the interaction effects between groups and seasons on sleep disorders in the subgroups of comorbid anxiety disorders and depressive disorders were studied. Both the nurses and the general population had fewer outpatient visits for sleep disorders in winter than in other seasons. The nurses had fewer outpatient visits for sleep disorders than the general population did in each season. The nurses had more outpatient visits for sleep disorders in winter than in summer compared with the general population in the comorbid depressive disorder subgroup but not in the comorbid anxiety disorder subgroup. Nurses and the general population exhibited similar seasonal patterns of sleep disorders, but nurses had fewer outpatient visits for sleep disorders than the general population did in each season. For nurses with comorbid depressive disorders, outpatient visits for sleep disorders were more numerous in winter than in summer, potentially because nurses with comorbid depressive disorders are affected by shorter daylight exposure during winter. Depression and daylight exposure may

  8. Evapotranspiration seasonality across the Amazon Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eiji Maeda, Eduardo; Ma, Xuanlong; Wagner, Fabien Hubert; Kim, Hyungjun; Oki, Taikan; Eamus, Derek; Huete, Alfredo

    2017-06-01

    Evapotranspiration (ET) of Amazon forests is a main driver of regional climate patterns and an important indicator of ecosystem functioning. Despite its importance, the seasonal variability of ET over Amazon forests, and its relationship with environmental drivers, is still poorly understood. In this study, we carry out a water balance approach to analyse seasonal patterns in ET and their relationships with water and energy drivers over five sub-basins across the Amazon Basin. We used in situ measurements of river discharge, and remotely sensed estimates of terrestrial water storage, rainfall, and solar radiation. We show that the characteristics of ET seasonality in all sub-basins differ in timing and magnitude. The highest mean annual ET was found in the northern Rio Negro basin (˜ 1497 mm year-1) and the lowest values in the Solimões River basin (˜ 986 mm year-1). For the first time in a basin-scale study, using observational data, we show that factors limiting ET vary across climatic gradients in the Amazon, confirming local-scale eddy covariance studies. Both annual mean and seasonality in ET are driven by a combination of energy and water availability, as neither rainfall nor radiation alone could explain patterns in ET. In southern basins, despite seasonal rainfall deficits, deep root water uptake allows increasing rates of ET during the dry season, when radiation is usually higher than in the wet season. We demonstrate contrasting ET seasonality with satellite greenness across Amazon forests, with strong asynchronous relationships in ever-wet watersheds, and positive correlations observed in seasonally dry watersheds. Finally, we compared our results with estimates obtained by two ET models, and we conclude that neither of the two tested models could provide a consistent representation of ET seasonal patterns across the Amazon.

  9. MODIFIED ALVARADO SCORING IN ACUTE APPENDICITIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Varadarajan Sujath

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND Acute appendicitis is one of the most common surgical emergencies with a lifetime presentation of approximately 1 in 7. Its incidence is 1.5-1.9/1000 in males and females. Surgery for acute appendicitis is based on history, clinical examination and laboratory investigations (e.g. WBC count. Imaging techniques add very little to the efficacy in the diagnosis of appendix. A negative appendicectomy rate of 20-40% has been reported in literature. A difficulty in diagnosis is experienced in very young patients and females of reproductive age. The diagnostic accuracy in assessing acute appendicitis has not improved in spite of rapid advances in management. MATERIALS AND METHODS The modified Alvarado score was applied and assessed for its accuracy in preparation diagnosis of acute appendicitis in 50 patients. The aim of our study is to understand the various presentations of acute appendicitis including the age and gender incidence and the application of the modified Alvarado scoring system in our hospital setup and assessment of the efficacy of the score. RESULTS Our study shows that most involved age group is 3 rd decade with male preponderance. On application of Alvarado score, nausea and vomiting present in 50% and anorexia in 30%, leucocytosis was found in 75% of cases. Sensitivity and specificity of our study were 65% and 40% respectively with positive predictive value of 85% and negative predictive value of 15%. CONCLUSION This study showed that clinical scoring like the Alvarado score can be a cheap and quick tool to apply in emergency departments to rule out acute appendicitis. The implementation of modified Alvarado score is simple and cost effective.

  10. The Seasonal and Spatial Distribution of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Fossil Fuels in Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregg, J. S.; Andres, R. J.

    2006-12-01

    Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil-fuel consumption are presented for the five Asian countries that are among the global leaders in anthropogenic carbon emissions: China (13% of global total), Japan (5% of global total), India (5% of global total), South Korea (2% of global total), and Indonesia (1% of global total). Together, these five countries represent over a quarter of the world's fossil-fuel based carbon emissions. Moreover, these countries are rapidly developing and energy demand has grown dramatically in the last two decades. A method is developed to estimate the spatial and seasonal flux of fossil-fuel consumption, thereby greatly improving the temporal and spatial resolution of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions. Currently, only national annual data for anthropogenic carbon emissions are available, and as such, no understanding of seasonal or sub-national patterns of emissions are possible. This methodology employs fuel distribution data from representative sectors of the fossil-fuel market to determine the temporal and spatial patterns of fuel consumption. These patterns of fuel consumption are then converted to patterns of carbon emissions. The annual total emissions estimates produced by this method are consistent to those maintained by the United Nations. Improved estimates of temporal and spatial resolution of the human based carbon emissions allows for better projections about future energy demands, carbon emissions, and ultimately the global carbon cycle.

  11. A cross-sectional study of the Birmingham Vasculitis Activity Score version 3 in systemic vasculitis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Suppiah, Ravi; Mukhtyar, Chetan; Flossmann, Oliver; Alberici, Federico; Baslund, Bo; Batra, Rajbir; Brown, Denise; Holle, Julia; Hruskova, Zdenka; Jayne, David R. W.; Judge, Andrew; Little, Mark A.; Palmisano, Alessandra; Stegeman, Coen; Tesar, Vladimir; Vaglio, Augusto; Westman, Kerstin; Luqmani, Raashid

    Methods. A total of 238 patients with vasculitis from seven countries in Europe were evaluated at a single time point. Spearman's correlation coefficients were calculated between BVAS v. 3 scores, vasculitis activity index (VAI), physician's global assessment (PGA), the physician's treatment

  12. Heart valve surgery: EuroSCORE vs. EuroSCORE II vs. Society of Thoracic Surgeons score

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Sharoz Rabbani

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Background This is a validation study comparing the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE II with the previous additive (AES and logistic EuroSCORE (LES and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons’ (STS risk prediction algorithm, for patients undergoing valve replacement with or without bypass in Pakistan. Patients and Methods Clinical data of 576 patients undergoing valve replacement surgery between 2006 and 2013 were retrospectively collected and individual expected risks of death were calculated by all four risk prediction algorithms. Performance of these risk algorithms was evaluated in terms of discrimination and calibration. Results There were 28 deaths (4.8% among 576 patients, which was lower than the predicted mortality of 5.16%, 6.96% and 4.94% by AES, LES and EuroSCORE II but was higher than 2.13% predicted by STS scoring system. For single and double valve replacement procedures, EuroSCORE II was the best predictor of mortality with highest Hosmer and Lemmeshow test (H-L p value (0.346 to 0.689 and area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve (0.637 to 0.898. For valve plus concomitant coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG patients actual mortality was 1.88%. STS calculator came out to be the best predictor of mortality for this subgroup with H-L p value (0.480 to 0.884 and ROC (0.657 to 0.775. Conclusions For Pakistani population EuroSCORE II is an accurate predictor for individual operative risk in patients undergoing isolated valve surgery, whereas STS performs better in the valve plus CABG group.

  13. Global extent and determinants of savanna and forest as alternative biome states

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Staver, C

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Theoretically, fire–tree cover feedbacks can maintain savanna and forest as alternative stable states. However, the global extent of fire- driven discontinuities in tree cover is unknown, especially accounting for seasonality and soils. The authors...

  14. SF-36 total score as a single measure of health-related quality of life: Scoping review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lins, Liliane; Carvalho, Fernando Martins

    2016-01-01

    According to the 36-Item Short Form Health Survey questionnaire developers, a global measure of health-related quality of life such as the "SF-36 Total/Global/Overall Score" cannot be generated from the questionnaire. However, studies keep on reporting such measure. This study aimed to evaluate the frequency and to describe some characteristics of articles reporting the SF-36 Total/Global/Overall Score in the scientific literature. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses method was adapted to a scoping review. We performed searches in PubMed, Web of Science, SCOPUS, BVS, and Cochrane Library databases for articles using such scores. We found 172 articles published between 1997 and 2015; 110 (64.0%) of them were published from 2010 onwards; 30.0% appeared in journals with Impact Factor 3.00 or greater. Overall, 129 (75.0%) out of the 172 studies did not specify the method for calculating the "SF-36 Total Score"; 13 studies did not specify their methods but referred to the SF-36 developers' studies or others; and 30 articles used different strategies for calculating such score, the most frequent being arithmetic averaging of the eight SF-36 domains scores. We concluded that the "SF-36 Total/Global/Overall Score" has been increasingly reported in the scientific literature. Researchers should be aware of this procedure and of its possible impacts upon human health.

  15. Globally important nitrous oxide emissions from croplands induced by freeze-thaw cycles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wagner-Riddle, Claudia; Congreves, Katelyn A.; Abalos Rodriguez, Diego; Berg, Aaron A.; Brown, Shannon E.; Ambadan, Jaison Thomas; Gao, Xiaopeng; Tenuta, Mario

    2017-01-01

    Seasonal freezing induces large thaw emissions of nitrous oxide, a trace gas that contributes to stratospheric ozone destruction and atmospheric warming. Cropland soils are by far the largest anthropogenic source of nitrous oxide. However, the global contribution of seasonal freezing to nitrous

  16. WebScore: An Effective Page Scoring Approach for Uncertain Web Social Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shaojie Qiao

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available To effectively score pages with uncertainty in web social networks, we first proposed a new concept called transition probability matrix and formally defined the uncertainty in web social networks. Second, we proposed a hybrid page scoring algorithm, called WebScore, based on the PageRank algorithm and three centrality measures including degree, betweenness, and closeness. Particularly,WebScore takes into a full consideration of the uncertainty of web social networks by computing the transition probability from one page to another. The basic idea ofWebScore is to: (1 integrate uncertainty into PageRank in order to accurately rank pages, and (2 apply the centrality measures to calculate the importance of pages in web social networks. In order to verify the performance of WebScore, we developed a web social network analysis system which can partition web pages into distinct groups and score them in an effective fashion. Finally, we conducted extensive experiments on real data and the results show that WebScore is effective at scoring uncertain pages with less time deficiency than PageRank and centrality measures based page scoring algorithms.

  17. Asymmetry during preseason Functional Movement Screen testing is associated with injury during a junior Australian football season.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chalmers, Samuel; Fuller, Joel T; Debenedictis, Thomas A; Townsley, Samuel; Lynagh, Matthew; Gleeson, Cara; Zacharia, Andrew; Thomson, Stuart; Magarey, Mary

    2017-07-01

    The Functional Movement Screen (FMS) is a popular screening tool, however, the postulated relationship between prospective injury and FMS scoring remains sparsely explored in adolescent athletes. The aim of the study was to examine the association between pre-season FMS scores and injuries sustained during one regular season competition in elite adolescent Australian football players. Prospective cohort study. 237 elite junior Australian football players completed FMS testing during the late pre-season phase and had their weekly playing status monitored during the regular season. The definition of an injury was 'a trauma which caused a player to miss a competitive match'. The median composite FMS score was 14 (mean=13.5±2.3). An apriori analysis revealed that the presence of ≥1 asymmetrical sub-test was associated with a moderate increase in the risk of injury (hazard ratio=2.2 [1.0-4.8]; relative risk=1.9; p=0.047; sensitivity=78.4%; specificity=41.0%). Notably, post-hoc analysis identified that the presence of ≥2 asymmetrical sub-tests was associated with an even greater increase in risk of prospective injury (hazard ratio=3.7 [1.6-8.6]; relative risk=2.8; p=0.003; sensitivity=66.7%; specificity=78.0%). Achieving a composite score of ≤14 did not substantially increase the risk of prospective injury (hazard ratio=1.1 [0.5-2.1]; p=0.834). Junior Australian football players demonstrating asymmetrical movement during pre-season FMS testing were more likely to sustain an injury during the regular season than players without asymmetry. Findings suggest that the commonly reported composite FMS threshold score of ≤14 was not associated with injury in elite junior AF players. Copyright © 2017 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Decadal Seasonal Shifts of Precipitation and Temperature in TRMM and AIRS Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savtchenko, Andrey; Huffman, George; Meyer, David; Vollmer, Bruce

    2018-01-01

    We present results from an analysis of seasonal phase shifts in the global precipitation and surface temperatures. We use data from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) Multi-satellite Precipitation Algorithm (TMPA), and the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on Aqua satellite, all hosted at NASA Goddard Earth Science Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). We explore the information content and data usability by first aggregating daily grids from the entire records of both missions to pentad (5-day) series which are then processed using Singular Value Decomposition approach. A strength of this approach is the normalized principal components that can then be easily converted from real to complex time series. Thus, we can separate the most informative, the seasonal, components and analyze unambiguously for potential seasonal phase drifts. TMPA and AIRS records represent correspondingly 20 and 15 years of data, which allows us to run simple “phase learning†from the first 5 years of records and use it as reference. The most recent 5 years are then phase-compared with the reference. We demonstrate that the seasonal phase of global precipitation and surface temperatures has been stable in the past two decades. However, a small global trend of delayed precipitation, and earlier arrival of surface temperatures seasons, are detectable at 95% confidence level. Larger phase shifts are detectable at regional level, in regions recognizable from the Eigen vectors to having strong seasonal patterns. For instance, in Central North America, including the North American Monsoon region, confident phase shifts of 1-2 days per decade are detected at 95% confidence level. While seemingly symbolic, these shifts are indicative of larger changes in the Earth Climate System. We thus also demonstrate a potential usability scenario of Earth Science Data Records curated at the NASA GES DISC in partnership with Earth Science Missions.

  19. Gambling scores for earthquake predictions and forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, Jiancang

    2010-04-01

    This paper presents a new method, namely the gambling score, for scoring the performance earthquake forecasts or predictions. Unlike most other scoring procedures that require a regular scheme of forecast and treat each earthquake equally, regardless their magnitude, this new scoring method compensates the risk that the forecaster has taken. Starting with a certain number of reputation points, once a forecaster makes a prediction or forecast, he is assumed to have betted some points of his reputation. The reference model, which plays the role of the house, determines how many reputation points the forecaster can gain if he succeeds, according to a fair rule, and also takes away the reputation points betted by the forecaster if he loses. This method is also extended to the continuous case of point process models, where the reputation points betted by the forecaster become a continuous mass on the space-time-magnitude range of interest. We also calculate the upper bound of the gambling score when the true model is a renewal process, the stress release model or the ETAS model and when the reference model is the Poisson model.

  20. Quality scores for 32,000 genomes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Land, Miriam L.; Hyatt, Doug; Jun, Se-Ran

    2014-01-01

    Background More than 80% of the microbial genomes in GenBank are of ‘draft’ quality (12,553 draft vs. 2,679 finished, as of October, 2013). We have examined all the microbial DNA sequences available for complete, draft, and Sequence Read Archive genomes in GenBank as well as three other major...... public databases, and assigned quality scores for more than 30,000 prokaryotic genome sequences. Results Scores were assigned using four categories: the completeness of the assembly, the presence of full-length rRNA genes, tRNA composition and the presence of a set of 102 conserved genes in prokaryotes....... Most (~88%) of the genomes had quality scores of 0.8 or better and can be safely used for standard comparative genomics analysis. We compared genomes across factors that may influence the score. We found that although sequencing depth coverage of over 100x did not ensure a better score, sequencing read...