Propagation of stationary Rossby waves in the Martian lower atmosphere

Science.gov (United States)

Ghosh, Priyanka; Thokuluwa, Ramkumar

The Martian lower atmospheric (-1.5 km to 29.3 km) temperature, measured by radio occultation technique during the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) mission launched by US in November 1996, at the Northern winter hemispheric latitude of about 63(°) N clearly shows a statistically significant (above 95 percent confidential level white noise) and strong 3.5-day oscillation during 1-10 January 2006. This strong signal occurs in the longitudinal sectors of 0-30(°) E and 190-230(°) E but statistically insignificant in almost all the other longitudes. This 180 degree separation between the two peaks of occurrence of strong 3.5 day oscillation indicates that this may be associated with zonal wave number 2 structure global scale wave. At the lowest height of -1.5 km, the power observed in the longitude of 0-30(°) E is 50 K (2) and it increased gradually to the maximum power of 130 K (2) at the height of 0.8 - 1.7 km. Above this height, the power decreased monotonously and gradually to insignificant level at the height of 3.7 km (20 K (2) ). This gradual decrease of power above the height of 1.7 km indicates that radiative damping (infra red cooling due to large abundance of CO _{2} molecules and dust particles) would have played an important role in the dissipation of waves. The height and longitudinal profiles of phase of the 3.5-day wave indicate that this wave is a vertically standing and eastward propagating planetary wave respectively. Since the statistically significant spectral amplitude occurs near the high topography structures, it seems that the wave is generated by flows over the topography. In the Northern winter, it is possible that the large gradient of temperature between the low and high latitudes would lead to flow of winds from the tropical to polar latitudes. Due to the Coriolis effect, this flow would in turn move towards the right and incite wave generation when the air flows over the high topographic structures. This lead to speculate that the observed 3

Instability of coupled gravity-inertial-Rossby waves on a β-plane in solar system atmospheres

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. F. McKenzie

2009-11-01

Full Text Available This paper provides an analysis of the combined theory of gravity-inertial-Rossby waves on a β-plane in the Boussinesq approximation. The wave equation for the system is fifth order in space and time and demonstrates how gravity-inertial waves on the one hand are coupled to Rossby waves on the other through the combined effects of β, the stratification characterized by the Väisälä-Brunt frequency N, the Coriolis frequency f at a given latitude, and vertical propagation which permits buoyancy modes to interact with westward propagating Rossby waves. The corresponding dispersion equation shows that the frequency of a westward propagating gravity-inertial wave is reduced by the coupling, whereas the frequency of a Rossby wave is increased. If the coupling is sufficiently strong these two modes coalesce giving rise to an instability. The instability condition translates into a curve of critical latitude Θ_c versus effective equatorial rotational Mach number M, with the region below this curve exhibiting instability. "Supersonic" fast rotators are unstable in a narrow band of latitudes around the equator. For example Θ_c~12° for Jupiter. On the other hand slow "subsonic" rotators (e.g. Mercury, Venus and the Sun's Corona are unstable at all latitudes except very close to the poles where the β effect vanishes. "Transonic" rotators, such as the Earth and Mars, exhibit instability within latitudes of 34° and 39°, respectively, around the Equator. Similar results pertain to Oceans. In the case of an Earth's Ocean of depth 4km say, purely westward propagating waves are unstable up to 26° about the Equator. The nonlinear evolution of this instability which feeds off rotational energy and gravitational buoyancy may play an important role in atmospheric dynamics.

On Long Baroclinic Rossby Waves in the Tropical North Atlantic Observed From Profiling Floats

Science.gov (United States)

2007-05-16

15b and 15c). Reclosing of vortex isolines while forming a new corotating eddy pair typically indicates excitation of periodical auto-oscillations in...important dynamical effect as reclosing of vortex isolines between corotating eddies, which are components of the semiannual standing Rossby wave

Reduced interdecadal variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under global warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Jun; Liu, Zhengyu; Zhang, Shaoqing; Liu, Wei; Dong, Lina; Liu, Peng; Li, Hongli

2016-03-22

Interdecadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC-IV) plays an important role in climate variation and has significant societal impacts. Past climate reconstruction indicates that AMOC-IV has likely undergone significant changes. Despite some previous studies, responses of AMOC-IV to global warming remain unclear, in particular regarding its amplitude and time scale. In this study, we analyze the responses of AMOC-IV under various scenarios of future global warming in multiple models and find that AMOC-IV becomes weaker and shorter with enhanced global warming. From the present climate condition to the strongest future warming scenario, on average, the major period of AMOC-IV is shortened from ∼50 y to ∼20 y, and the amplitude is reduced by ∼60%. These reductions in period and amplitude of AMOC-IV are suggested to be associated with increased oceanic stratification under global warming and, in turn, the speedup of oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves.

Reduced interdecadal variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Jun; Liu, Zhengyu; Zhang, Shaoqing; Liu, Wei; Dong, Lina; Liu, Peng; Li, Hongli

2016-01-01

Interdecadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC-IV) plays an important role in climate variation and has significant societal impacts. Past climate reconstruction indicates that AMOC-IV has likely undergone significant changes. Despite some previous studies, responses of AMOC-IV to global warming remain unclear, in particular regarding its amplitude and time scale. In this study, we analyze the responses of AMOC-IV under various scenarios of future global warming in multiple models and find that AMOC-IV becomes weaker and shorter with enhanced global warming. From the present climate condition to the strongest future warming scenario, on average, the major period of AMOC-IV is shortened from ∼50 y to ∼20 y, and the amplitude is reduced by ∼60%. These reductions in period and amplitude of AMOC-IV are suggested to be associated with increased oceanic stratification under global warming and, in turn, the speedup of oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves. PMID:26951654

DOUBLE DYNAMO SIGNATURES IN A GLOBAL MHD SIMULATION AND MEAN-FIELD DYNAMOS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Beaudoin, Patrice; Simard, Corinne; Cossette, Jean-François; Charbonneau, Paul [Département de Physique, Université de Montréal, C.P. 6128, Succ. Centre-Ville, Montréal, Québec, H3C 3J7 (Canada)

2016-08-01

The 11 year solar activity cycle is the most prominent periodic manifestation of the magnetohydrodynamical (MHD) large-scale dynamo operating in the solar interior, yet longer and shorter (quasi-) periodicities are also present. The so-called “quasi-biennial” signal appearing in many proxies of solar activity has been gaining increasing attention since its detection in p -mode frequency shifts, which suggests a subphotospheric origin. A number of candidate mechanisms have been proposed, including beating between co-existing global dynamo modes, dual dynamos operating in spatially separated regions of the solar interior, and Rossby waves driving short-period oscillations in the large-scale solar magnetic field produced by the 11 year activity cycle. In this article, we analyze a global MHD simulation of solar convection producing regular large-scale magnetic cycles, and detect and characterize shorter periodicities developing therein. By constructing kinematic mean-field α {sup 2}Ω dynamo models incorporating the turbulent electromotive force (emf) extracted from that same simulation, we find that dual-dynamo behavior materializes in fairly wide regions of the model’s parameters space. This suggests that the origin of the similar behavior detected in the MHD simulation lies with the joint complexity of the turbulent emf and differential rotation profile, rather that with dynamical interactions such as those mediated by Rossby waves. Analysis of the simulation also reveals that the dual dynamo operating therein leaves a double-period signature in the temperature field, consistent with a dual-period helioseismic signature. Order-of-magnitude estimates for the magnitude of the expected frequency shifts are commensurate with helioseismic measurements. Taken together, our results support the hypothesis that the solar quasi-biennial oscillations are associated with a secondary dynamo process operating in the outer reaches of the solar convection zone.

Dynamo Scaling Laws for Uranus and Neptune: The Role of Convective Shell Thickness on Dipolarity

Science.gov (United States)

Stanley, Sabine; Yunsheng Tian, Bob

2017-10-01

Previous dynamo scaling law studies (Christensen and Aubert, 2006) have demonstrated that the morphology of a planet’s magnetic field is determined by the local Rossby number (Ro_l): a non-dimensional diagnostic variable that quantifies the ratio of inertial forces to Coriolis forces on the average length scale of the flow. Dynamos with Ro_l ~ 0.1 produce multipolar magnetic fields. Scaling studies have also determined the dependence of the local Rossby number on non-dimensional parameters governing the system - specifically the Ekman, Prandtl, magnetic Prandtl and flux-based Rayleigh numbers (Olson and Christensen, 2006). When these scaling laws are applied to the planets, it appears that Uranus and Neptune should have dipole-dominated fields, contrary to observations. However, those scaling laws were derived using the specific convective shell thickness of the Earth’s core. Here we investigate the role of convective shell thickness on dynamo scaling laws. We find that the local Rossby number depends exponentially on the convective shell thickness. Including this new dependence on convective shell thickness, we find that the dynamo scaling laws now predict that Uranus and Neptune reside deeply in the multipolar regime, thereby resolving the previous contradiction with observations.

The Effect of Surface Topography on the Nonlinear Dynamics of Rossby Waves

Science.gov (United States)

Abarzhi, S. I.; Desjardins, O.; Pitsch, H.

2003-01-01

Boussinesq convection in rotating systems attracts a sustained attention of the fluid dynamics community, because it has intricate non-linear dynamics (Cross & Hohenberg 1993) and plays an important role in geophysical and astrophysical applications, such as the motion of the liquid outer core of Earth, the Red Spot in Jupiter, the giant cells in the Sun etc. (Alridge et al. 1990). A fundamental distinction between the real geo- and astrophysical problems and the idealized laboratory studies is that natural systems are inhomogeneous (Alridge et al. 1990). Heterogeneities modulate the flow and influence significantly the dynamics of convective patterns (Alridge et al. 1990; Hide 1971). The effect of modulations on pattern formation and transition to turbulence in Boussinesq convection is far from being completely understood (Cross & Hohenberg 1993; Aranson & Kramer 2002). It is generally accepted that in the liquid outer core of the Earth the transport of the angular momentum and internal heat occurs via thermal Rossby waves (Zhang et al. 2001; Kuang & Bloxham 1999). These waves been visualized in laboratory experiments in rotating liquid-filled spheres and concentric spherical shells (Zhang et al. 2001; Kuang & Bloxham 1999). The basic dynamical features of Rossby waves have been reproduced in a cylindrical annulus, a system much simpler than the spherical ones (Busse & Or 1986; Or & Busse 1987). For convection in a cylindrical annulus, the fluid motion is two-dimensional, and gravity is replaced by a centrifugal force, (Busse & Or 1986; Or & Busse 1987). Hide (1971) has suggested that the momentum and heat transport in the core might be influenced significantly by so-called bumps, which are heterogeneities on the mantle-core boundary. To model the effect of surface topography on the transport of momentum and energy in the liquid outer core of the Earth, Bell & Soward (1996), Herrmann & Busse (1998) and Westerburg & Busse (2001) have studied the nonlinear dynamics

Scaling a Convection-Resolving RCM to Near-Global Scales

Science.gov (United States)

Leutwyler, D.; Fuhrer, O.; Chadha, T.; Kwasniewski, G.; Hoefler, T.; Lapillonne, X.; Lüthi, D.; Osuna, C.; Schar, C.; Schulthess, T. C.; Vogt, H.

2017-12-01

In the recent years, first decade-long kilometer-scale resolution RCM simulations have been performed on continental-scale computational domains. However, the size of the planet Earth is still an order of magnitude larger and thus the computational implications of performing global climate simulations at this resolution are challenging. We explore the gap between the currently established RCM simulations and global simulations by scaling the GPU accelerated version of the COSMO model to a near-global computational domain. To this end, the evolution of an idealized moist baroclinic wave has been simulated over the course of 10 days with a grid spacing of up to 930 m. The computational mesh employs 36'000 x 16'001 x 60 grid points and covers 98.4% of the planet's surface. The code shows perfect weak scaling up to 4'888 Nodes of the Piz Daint supercomputer and yields 0.043 simulated years per day (SYPD) which is approximately one seventh of the 0.2-0.3 SYPD required to conduct AMIP-type simulations. However, at half the resolution (1.9 km) we've observed 0.23 SYPD. Besides formation of frontal precipitating systems containing embedded explicitly-resolved convective motions, the simulations reveal a secondary instability that leads to cut-off warm-core cyclonic vortices in the cyclone's core, once the grid spacing is refined to the kilometer scale. The explicit representation of embedded moist convection and the representation of the previously unresolved instabilities exhibit a physically different behavior in comparison to coarser-resolution simulations. The study demonstrates that global climate simulations using kilometer-scale resolution are imminent and serves as a baseline benchmark for global climate model applications and future exascale supercomputing systems.

Free and forced Rossby normal modes in a rectangular gulf of arbitrary orientation

Science.gov (United States)

Graef, Federico

2016-09-01

A free Rossby normal mode in a rectangular gulf of arbitrary orientation is constructed by considering the reflection of a Rossby mode in a channel at the head of the gulf. Therefore, it is the superposition of four Rossby waves in an otherwise unbounded ocean with the same frequency and wavenumbers perpendicular to the gulf axis whose difference is equal to 2mπ/W, where m is a positive integer and W the gulf's width. The lower (or higher) modes with small m (or large m) are oscillatory (evanescent) in the coordinate along the gulf; these are elucidated geometrically. However for oceanographically realistic parameter values, most of the modes are evanescent. When the gulf is forced at the mouth with a single Fourier component, the response is in general an infinite sum of modes that are needed to match the value of the streamfunction at the gulf's entrance. The dominant mode of the response is the resonant one, which corresponds to forcing with a frequency ω and wavenumber normal to the gulf axis η appropriate to a gulf mode: η =- β sin α/(2ω) ± Mπ/W, where α is the angle between the gulf's axis and the eastern direction (+ve clockwise) and M the resonant's mode number. For zonal gulfs ω drops out of the resonance condition. For the special cases η = 0 in which the free surface goes up and down at the mouth with no flow through it, or a flow with a sinusoidal profile, resonant modes can get excited for very specific frequencies (only for non-zonal gulfs in the η = 0 case). The resonant mode is around the annual frequency for a wide range of gulf orientations α ∈ [40°, 130°] or α ∈ [220°, 310°] and gulf widths between 150 and 200 km; these include the Gulf of California and the Adriatic Sea. If η is imaginary, i.e. a flow with an exponential profile, there is no resonance. In general less modes get excited if the gulf is zonally oriented.

Variability patterns of Rossby wave source

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shimizu, Marilia Harumi; Albuquerque Cavalcanti, Iracema Fonseca de [National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies (CPTEC), Sao Jose dos Campos (Brazil)

2011-08-15

Rossby waves (RW) propagation due to a local forcing is one of the mechanisms responsible for wave trains configurations known as teleconnections. The term teleconnection refers to anomalies patterns that are correlated in several regions of the world, causing large-scale changes in atmospheric waves patterns and temperature and precipitation regimes. The aim of teleconnections studies is to provide a better understanding of atmospheric variability and their mechanisms of action in order to identify patterns that can be tracked and predicted. The purpose of this study was to characterize seasonal and spatial variability of atmospheric RW sources. The RW source at 200 hPa was calculated for the four seasons with reanalysis data of zonal and meridional wind. In the Northern Hemisphere (NH), the RW sources were located on East Asia, North America, North Atlantic and Pacific. The main RW sources in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) were located over Intertropical, South Pacific, South Atlantic and South Indian Convergence Zones. Extratropical regions were also identified, mainly to the south of Australia. The vortex stretching term (S1) and the advection of absolute vorticity by the divergent wind (S2) were analyzed to discuss the physical mechanisms for RW generation. In the NH, the source at East Asia in DJF changed to a sink in JJA, related to the dominance of S1 term in DJF and S2 term in JJA. In the SH, the vortex stretching term had the dominant contribution for RW source located to the south of Australia. The main forcing for RW sources at east of Australia was the advection of absolute vorticity by divergent flow. Over South America, both terms contributed to the source in DJF. The main modes of RW source variability were discussed by using empirical orthogonal functions analysis. RW variability was characterized by wave trains configurations in both hemispheres over regions of jet streams and storm tracks, associated with favorable and unfavorable areas for RW

MAGNETIC ROSSBY WAVES IN THE SOLAR TACHOCLINE AND RIEGER-TYPE PERIODICITIES

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zaqarashvili, Teimuraz V.; Carbonell, Marc; Oliver, Ramon; Ballester, Jose Luis

2010-01-01

Apart from the eleven-year solar cycle, another periodicity around 155-160 days was discovered during solar cycle 21 in high-energy solar flares, and its presence in sunspot areas and strong magnetic flux has been also reported. This periodicity has an elusive and enigmatic character, since it usually appears only near the maxima of solar cycles, and seems to be related with a periodic emergence of strong magnetic flux at the solar surface. Therefore, it is probably connected with the tachocline, a thin layer located near the base of the solar convection zone, where a strong dynamo magnetic field is stored. We study the dynamics of Rossby waves in the tachocline in the presence of a toroidal magnetic field and latitudinal differential rotation. Our analysis shows that the magnetic Rossby waves are generally unstable and that the growth rates are sensitive to the magnetic field strength and to the latitudinal differential rotation parameters. Variation of the differential rotation and the magnetic field strength throughout the solar cycle enhance the growth rate of a particular harmonic in the upper part of the tachocline around the maximum of the solar cycle. This harmonic is symmetric with respect to the equator and has a period of 155-160 days. A rapid increase of the wave amplitude could give rise to a magnetic flux emergence leading to observed periodicities in solar activity indicators related to magnetic flux.

Stationary drift-Rossby vortices in shear flows

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Horihata, Satoshi; Irie, Haruyuki; Sato, Masatomo

1990-01-01

Starting from Hasegawa-Mima equation with the generalized vorticity q which describes both electrostatic drift waves in plasmas and Rossby waves in the atmosphere of rotating planets, the stationary solutions of this equation in the (x, y) plane were considered assuming that the equilibrium density no depends on x and the electron temperature T 0 is constant. The arbitrary function F(φ) yielded from integration of transformed Hasegawa-Mima equation was taken either linear or nonlinear in φ, where φ is the stream function. When F is linear, vortex solutions were obtained by dividing the entire plane into internal and external regions by a closed boundary curve. Imposing the boundary conditions at the boundary curve, the constants in the solutions φ ex and φ in were determined. 4 examples are figured. When F is nonlinear, isolated (localized) vortex was considered. Deriving the equation to determine F, the equation for ψ, the internal vortical motion beyond the boundary was given. 2 examples are shown. (M.T.)

Forced solitary Rossby waves under the influence of slowly varying topography with time

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang Hong-Wei; Yin Bao-Shu; Yang De-Zhou; Xu Zhen-Hua

2011-01-01

By using a weakly nonlinear and perturbation method, the generalized inhomogeneous Korteweg—de Vries (KdV)—Burgers equation is derived, which governs the evolution of the amplitude of Rossby waves under the influence of dissipation and slowly varying topography with time. The analysis indicates that dissipation and slowly varying topography with time are important factors in causing variation in the mass and energy of solitary waves. (general)

Discovery Of A Rossby Wave In Jupiter's South Equatorial Region

Science.gov (United States)

Simon-Miller, Amy A.; Choi, D. S.; Rogers, J. H.; Gierasch, P. J.

2012-01-01

A detailed study of the chevron-shaped dark spots on the strong southern equatorial wind jet near 7.5 deg S planetographic latitude shows variations in velocity with longitude and time. The chevrons move with velocities near the maximum wind jet velocity of approx.140 m/s, as deduced by the history of velocities at this latitude and the magnitude of the symmetric wind jet near 7 deg N latitude. Their repetitive nature is consistent with an inertia-gravity wave (n = 75-100) with phase speed up to 25 m/s, relative to the local flow, but the identity of this wave mode is not well constrained. However, high spatial resolution movies from Cassini images show that the chevrons oscillate in latitude with a approx.7-day period. This oscillating motion has a wavelength of approx.20 deg and a speed of approx.100 m/s, following a pattern similar to that seen in the Rossby wave plumes of the North Equatorial Zone, and possibly reinforced by it, though they are not perfectly in phase. The transient anticyclonic South Equatorial Disturbance (SED) may be a similar wave feature, but moves at slower velocity. All data show chevron latitude variability, but it is unclear if this Rossby wave is present during other epochs, without time series movies that fully delineate it. In the presence of multiple wave modes, the difference in dominant cloud appearance between 7 deg N and 7.5 deg S may be due to the presence of the Great Red Spot, either through changes in stratification and stability or by acting as a wave boundary.

Global scale groundwater flow model

Science.gov (United States)

Sutanudjaja, Edwin; de Graaf, Inge; van Beek, Ludovicus; Bierkens, Marc

2013-04-01

As the world's largest accessible source of freshwater, groundwater plays vital role in satisfying the basic needs of human society. It serves as a primary source of drinking water and supplies water for agricultural and industrial activities. During times of drought, groundwater sustains water flows in streams, rivers, lakes and wetlands, and thus supports ecosystem habitat and biodiversity, while its large natural storage provides a buffer against water shortages. Yet, the current generation of global scale hydrological models does not include a groundwater flow component that is a crucial part of the hydrological cycle and allows the simulation of groundwater head dynamics. In this study we present a steady-state MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh, 1988) groundwater model on the global scale at 5 arc-minutes resolution. Aquifer schematization and properties of this groundwater model were developed from available global lithological model (e.g. Dürr et al., 2005; Gleeson et al., 2010; Hartmann and Moorsdorff, in press). We force the groundwtaer model with the output from the large-scale hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB (van Beek et al., 2011), specifically the long term net groundwater recharge and average surface water levels derived from routed channel discharge. We validated calculated groundwater heads and depths with available head observations, from different regions, including the North and South America and Western Europe. Our results show that it is feasible to build a relatively simple global scale groundwater model using existing information, and estimate water table depths within acceptable accuracy in many parts of the world.

Three-pattern decomposition of global atmospheric circulation: part I—decomposition model and theorems

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Shujuan; Chou, Jifan; Cheng, Jianbo

2018-04-01

In order to study the interactions between the atmospheric circulations at the middle-high and low latitudes from the global perspective, the authors proposed the mathematical definition of three-pattern circulations, i.e., horizontal, meridional and zonal circulations with which the actual atmospheric circulation is expanded. This novel decomposition method is proved to accurately describe the actual atmospheric circulation dynamics. The authors used the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data to calculate the climate characteristics of those three-pattern circulations, and found that the decomposition model agreed with the observed results. Further dynamical analysis indicates that the decomposition model is more accurate to capture the major features of global three dimensional atmospheric motions, compared to the traditional definitions of Rossby wave, Hadley circulation and Walker circulation. The decomposition model for the first time realized the decomposition of global atmospheric circulation using three orthogonal circulations within the horizontal, meridional and zonal planes, offering new opportunities to study the large-scale interactions between the middle-high latitudes and low latitudes circulations.

The Hamburg large scale geostrophic ocean general circulation model. Cycle 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maier-Reimer, E.; Mikolajewicz, U.

1992-02-01

The rationale for the Large Scale Geostrophic ocean circulation model (LSG-OGCM) is based on the observations that for a large scale ocean circulation model designed for climate studies, the relevant characteristic spatial scales are large compared with the internal Rossby radius throughout most of the ocean, while the characteristic time scales are large compared with the periods of gravity modes and barotropic Rossby wave modes. In the present version of the model, the fast modes have been filtered out by a conventional technique of integrating the full primitive equations, including all terms except the nonlinear advection of momentum, by an implicit time integration method. The free surface is also treated prognostically, without invoking a rigid lid approximation. The numerical scheme is unconditionally stable and has the additional advantage that it can be applied uniformly to the entire globe, including the equatorial and coastal current regions. (orig.)

Groundwater development stress: Global-scale indices compared to regional modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Alley, William; Clark, Brian R.; Ely, Matt; Faunt, Claudia

2018-01-01

The increased availability of global datasets and technologies such as global hydrologic models and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites have resulted in a growing number of global-scale assessments of water availability using simple indices of water stress. Developed initially for surface water, such indices are increasingly used to evaluate global groundwater resources. We compare indices of groundwater development stress for three major agricultural areas of the United States to information available from regional water budgets developed from detailed groundwater modeling. These comparisons illustrate the potential value of regional-scale analyses to supplement global hydrological models and GRACE analyses of groundwater depletion. Regional-scale analyses allow assessments of water stress that better account for scale effects, the dynamics of groundwater flow systems, the complexities of irrigated agricultural systems, and the laws, regulations, engineering, and socioeconomic factors that govern groundwater use. Strategic use of regional-scale models with global-scale analyses would greatly enhance knowledge of the global groundwater depletion problem.

Globalizing Lessons Learned from Regional-scale Observatories

Science.gov (United States)

Glenn, S. M.

2016-02-01

The Mid Atlantic Regional Association Coastal Ocean Observing System (MARACOOS) has accumulated a decade of experience designing, building and operating a Regional Coastal Ocean Observing System for the U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS). MARACOOS serves societal goals and supports scientific discovery at the scale of a Large Marine Ecosystem (LME). Societal themes include maritime safety, ecosystem decision support, coastal inundation, water quality and offshore energy. Scientific results that feed back on societal goals with better products include improved understanding of seasonal transport pathways and their impact on phytoplankton blooms and hypoxia, seasonal evolution of the subsurface Mid Atlantic Cold Pool and its impact on fisheries, biogeochemical transformations in coastal plumes, coastal ocean evolution and impact on hurricane intensities, and storm sediment transport pathways. As the global ocean observing requirements grow to support additional societal needs for information on fisheries and aquaculture, ocean acidification and deoxygenation, water quality and offshore development, global observing will necessarily evolve to include more coastal observations and forecast models at the scale of the world's many LMEs. Here we describe our efforts to share lessons learned between the observatory operators at the regional-scale of the LMEs. Current collaborators are spread across Europe, and also include Korea, Indonesia, Australia, Brazil and South Africa. Specific examples include the development of a world standard QA/QC approach for HF Radar data that will foster the sharing of data between countries, basin-scale underwater glider missions between internationally-distributed glider ports to developed a shared understanding of operations and an ongoing evaluation of the global ocean models in which the regional models for the LME will be nested, and joint training programs to develop the distributed teams of scientists and technicians

Globalization: Ecological consequences of global-scale connectivity in people, resources and information

Science.gov (United States)

Globalization is a phenomenon affecting all facets of the Earth System. Within the context of ecological systems, it is becoming increasingly apparent that global connectivity among terrestrial systems, the atmosphere, and oceans is driving many ecological dynamics at finer scales and pushing thresh...

Lagrangian transport in poleward breaking Rossby waves in the North Atlantic - Europe tropopause region

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bartels, J; Peters, D [Rostock Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Atmosphaerenphysik

1998-12-31

The poleward advection of upper-tropospheric air is investigated for poleward Rossby wave breaking events. During boreal winter months the isentropic deformations of the tropopause are examined using maps of Ertel`s potential vorticity (EPV) and contour advection (CA) calculations. The role of ambient baro-tropic flow is further examined by idealized numerical models. In the vicinity of the tropopause the characteristic Lagrangian transport of air masses for ECMWF-analysis data are compared with high resolution (T106) ECHAM4 experiments. (author) 3 refs.

Lagrangian transport in poleward breaking Rossby waves in the North Atlantic - Europe tropopause region

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bartels, J.; Peters, D. [Rostock Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Atmosphaerenphysik

1997-12-31

The poleward advection of upper-tropospheric air is investigated for poleward Rossby wave breaking events. During boreal winter months the isentropic deformations of the tropopause are examined using maps of Ertel`s potential vorticity (EPV) and contour advection (CA) calculations. The role of ambient baro-tropic flow is further examined by idealized numerical models. In the vicinity of the tropopause the characteristic Lagrangian transport of air masses for ECMWF-analysis data are compared with high resolution (T106) ECHAM4 experiments. (author) 3 refs.

A high-resolution global-scale groundwater model

Science.gov (United States)

de Graaf, I. E. M.; Sutanudjaja, E. H.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

2015-02-01

Groundwater is the world's largest accessible source of fresh water. It plays a vital role in satisfying basic needs for drinking water, agriculture and industrial activities. During times of drought groundwater sustains baseflow to rivers and wetlands, thereby supporting ecosystems. Most global-scale hydrological models (GHMs) do not include a groundwater flow component, mainly due to lack of geohydrological data at the global scale. For the simulation of lateral flow and groundwater head dynamics, a realistic physical representation of the groundwater system is needed, especially for GHMs that run at finer resolutions. In this study we present a global-scale groundwater model (run at 6' resolution) using MODFLOW to construct an equilibrium water table at its natural state as the result of long-term climatic forcing. The used aquifer schematization and properties are based on available global data sets of lithology and transmissivities combined with the estimated thickness of an upper, unconfined aquifer. This model is forced with outputs from the land-surface PCRaster Global Water Balance (PCR-GLOBWB) model, specifically net recharge and surface water levels. A sensitivity analysis, in which the model was run with various parameter settings, showed that variation in saturated conductivity has the largest impact on the groundwater levels simulated. Validation with observed groundwater heads showed that groundwater heads are reasonably well simulated for many regions of the world, especially for sediment basins (R2 = 0.95). The simulated regional-scale groundwater patterns and flow paths demonstrate the relevance of lateral groundwater flow in GHMs. Inter-basin groundwater flows can be a significant part of a basin's water budget and help to sustain river baseflows, especially during droughts. Also, water availability of larger aquifer systems can be positively affected by additional recharge from inter-basin groundwater flows.

ROSSBY WAVE INSTABILITY AT DEAD ZONE BOUNDARIES IN THREE-DIMENSIONAL RESISTIVE MAGNETOHYDRODYNAMICAL GLOBAL MODELS OF PROTOPLANETARY DISKS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lyra, Wladimir; Mac Low, Mordecai-Mark

2012-01-01

It has been suggested that the transition between magnetorotationally active and dead zones in protoplanetary disks should be prone to the excitation of vortices via Rossby wave instability (RWI). However, the only numerical evidence for this has come from alpha disk models, where the magnetic field evolution is not followed, and the effect of turbulence is parameterized by Laplacian viscosity. We aim to establish the phenomenology of the flow in the transition in three-dimensional resistive-magnetohydrodynamical models. We model the transition by a sharp jump in resistivity, as expected in the inner dead zone boundary, using the PENCIL CODE to simulate the flow. We find that vortices are readily excited in the dead side of the transition. We measure the mass accretion rate finding similar levels of Reynolds stress at the dead and active zones, at the α ≈ 10 –2 level. The vortex sits in a pressure maximum and does not migrate, surviving until the end of the simulation. A pressure maximum in the active zone also triggers the RWI. The magnetized vortex that results should be disrupted by parasitical magneto-elliptic instabilities, yet it subsists in high resolution. This suggests that either the parasitic modes are still numerically damped or that the RWI supplies vorticity faster than they can destroy it. We conclude that the resistive transition between the active and dead zones in the inner regions of protoplanetary disks, if sharp enough, can indeed excite vortices via RWI. Our results lend credence to previous works that relied on the alpha-disk approximation, and caution against the use of overly reduced azimuthal coverage on modeling this transition.

Scale-dependency of the global mean surface temperature trend and its implication for the recent hiatus of global warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Yong; Franzke, Christian L E

2015-08-11

Studies of the global mean surface temperature trend are typically conducted at a single (usually annual or decadal) time scale. The used scale does not necessarily correspond to the intrinsic scales of the natural temperature variability. This scale mismatch complicates the separation of externally forced temperature trends from natural temperature fluctuations. The hiatus of global warming since 1999 has been claimed to show that human activities play only a minor role in global warming. Most likely this claim is wrong due to the inadequate consideration of the scale-dependency in the global surface temperature (GST) evolution. Here we show that the variability and trend of the global mean surface temperature anomalies (GSTA) from January 1850 to December 2013, which incorporate both land and sea surface data, is scale-dependent and that the recent hiatus of global warming is mainly related to natural long-term oscillations. These results provide a possible explanation of the recent hiatus of global warming and suggest that the hiatus is only temporary.

LONG-TERM VARIATION IN THE SUN’S ACTIVITY CAUSED BY MAGNETIC ROSSBY WAVES IN THE TACHOCLINE

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zaqarashvili, Teimuraz V. [Space Research Institute, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Schmiedlstrasse 6, 8042 Graz (Austria); Oliver, Ramon; Ballester, Jose Luis [Departament de Física, Universitat de les Illes Balears, E-07122 Palma de Mallorca (Spain); Hanslmeier, Arnold [Institute für Physik, Geophysik Astrophysik und Meteorologie, University of Graz, Univ.-Platz 5, 8010 Graz (Austria); Carbonell, Marc [Departament de Matemàtiques i Informàtica, Universitat de les Illes Balears, E-07122 Palma de Mallorca (Spain); Gachechiladze, Tamar [Abastumani Astrophysical Observatory at Ilia State University, Tbilisi, Georgia (United States); Usoskin, Ilya G., E-mail: teimuraz.zaqarashvili@oeaw.ac.at [Sodankylä Geophysical Observatory and ReSoLVE Centre of Excellence, University of Oulu, FI-90014 Oulo (Finland)

2015-06-01

Long-term records of sunspot number and concentrations of cosmogenic radionuclides (10Be and 14C) on the Earth reveal the variation of the Sun's magnetic activity over hundreds and thousands of years. We identify several clear periods in sunspot, 10Be, and 14C data as 1000, 500, 350, 200, and 100 years. We found that the periods of the first five spherical harmonics of the slow magnetic Rossby mode in the presence of a steady toroidal magnetic field of 1200–1300 G in the lower tachocline are in perfect agreement with the timescales of observed variations. The steady toroidal magnetic field can be generated in the lower tachocline either due to the steady dynamo magnetic field for low magnetic diffusivity or due to the action of the latitudinal differential rotation on the weak poloidal primordial magnetic field, which penetrates from the radiative interior. The slow magnetic Rossby waves lead to variations of the steady toroidal magnetic field in the lower tachocline, which modulate the dynamo magnetic field and consequently the solar cycle strength. This result constitutes a key point for long-term prediction of the cycle strength. According to our model, the next deep minimum in solar activity is expected during the first half of this century.

LONG-TERM VARIATION IN THE SUN’S ACTIVITY CAUSED BY MAGNETIC ROSSBY WAVES IN THE TACHOCLINE

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zaqarashvili, Teimuraz V.; Oliver, Ramon; Ballester, Jose Luis; Hanslmeier, Arnold; Carbonell, Marc; Gachechiladze, Tamar; Usoskin, Ilya G.

2015-01-01

Long-term records of sunspot number and concentrations of cosmogenic radionuclides (10Be and 14C) on the Earth reveal the variation of the Sun's magnetic activity over hundreds and thousands of years. We identify several clear periods in sunspot, 10Be, and 14C data as 1000, 500, 350, 200, and 100 years. We found that the periods of the first five spherical harmonics of the slow magnetic Rossby mode in the presence of a steady toroidal magnetic field of 1200–1300 G in the lower tachocline are in perfect agreement with the timescales of observed variations. The steady toroidal magnetic field can be generated in the lower tachocline either due to the steady dynamo magnetic field for low magnetic diffusivity or due to the action of the latitudinal differential rotation on the weak poloidal primordial magnetic field, which penetrates from the radiative interior. The slow magnetic Rossby waves lead to variations of the steady toroidal magnetic field in the lower tachocline, which modulate the dynamo magnetic field and consequently the solar cycle strength. This result constitutes a key point for long-term prediction of the cycle strength. According to our model, the next deep minimum in solar activity is expected during the first half of this century

Scaling behaviour of the global tropopause

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Varotsos

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Detrended fluctuation analysis is applied to the time series of the global tropopause height derived from the 1980–2004 daily radiosonde data, in order to detect long-range correlations in its time evolution.

Global tropopause height fluctuations in small time-intervals are found to be positively correlated to those in larger time intervals in a power-law fashion. The exponent of this dependence is larger in the tropics than in the middle and high latitudes in both hemispheres. Greater persistence is observed in the tropopause of the Northern than in the Southern Hemisphere. A plausible physical explanation of the fact that long-range correlations in tropopause variability decreases with increasing latitude is that the column ozone fluctuations (that are closely related with the tropopause ones exhibit long range correlations, which are larger in tropics than in the middle and high latitudes at long time scales.

This finding for the tropopause height variability should reduce the existing uncertainties in assessing the climatic characteristics. More specifically the reliably modelled values of a climatic variable (i.e. past and future simulations must exhibit the same scaling behaviour with that possibly existing in the real observations of the variable under consideration. An effort has been made to this end by applying the detrended fluctuation analysis to the global mean monthly land and sea surface temperature anomalies during the period January 1850–August 2008. The result obtained supports the findings presented above, notably: the correlations between the fluctuations in the global mean monthly land and sea surface temperature display scaling behaviour which must characterizes any projection.

Scale-dependency of the global mean surface temperature trend and its implication for the recent hiatus of global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Yong; Franzke, Christian L. E.

2015-01-01

Studies of the global mean surface temperature trend are typically conducted at a single (usually annual or decadal) time scale. The used scale does not necessarily correspond to the intrinsic scales of the natural temperature variability. This scale mismatch complicates the separation of externally forced temperature trends from natural temperature fluctuations. The hiatus of global warming since 1999 has been claimed to show that human activities play only a minor role in global warming. Most likely this claim is wrong due to the inadequate consideration of the scale-dependency in the global surface temperature (GST) evolution. Here we show that the variability and trend of the global mean surface temperature anomalies (GSTA) from January 1850 to December 2013, which incorporate both land and sea surface data, is scale-dependent and that the recent hiatus of global warming is mainly related to natural long-term oscillations. These results provide a possible explanation of the recent hiatus of global warming and suggest that the hiatus is only temporary. PMID:26259555

Effects of climate variability on global scale flood risk

Science.gov (United States)

Ward, P.; Dettinger, M. D.; Kummu, M.; Jongman, B.; Sperna Weiland, F.; Winsemius, H.

2013-12-01

In this contribution we demonstrate the influence of climate variability on flood risk. Globally, flooding is one of the worst natural hazards in terms of economic damages; Munich Re estimates global losses in the last decade to be in excess of $240 billion. As a result, scientifically sound estimates of flood risk at the largest scales are increasingly needed by industry (including multinational companies and the insurance industry) and policy communities. Several assessments of global scale flood risk under current and conditions have recently become available, and this year has seen the first studies assessing how flood risk may change in the future due to global change. However, the influence of climate variability on flood risk has as yet hardly been studied, despite the fact that: (a) in other fields (drought, hurricane damage, food production) this variability is as important for policy and practice as long term change; and (b) climate variability has a strong influence in peak riverflows around the world. To address this issue, this contribution illustrates the influence of ENSO-driven climate variability on flood risk, at both the globally aggregated scale and the scale of countries and large river basins. Although it exerts significant and widespread influences on flood peak discharges in many parts of the world, we show that ENSO does not have a statistically significant influence on flood risk once aggregated to global totals. At the scale of individual countries, though, strong relationships exist over large parts of the Earth's surface. For example, we find particularly strong anomalies of flood risk in El Niño or La Niña years (compared to all years) in southern Africa, parts of western Africa, Australia, parts of Central Eurasia (especially for El Niño), the western USA (especially for La Niña), and parts of South America. These findings have large implications for both decadal climate-risk projections and long-term future climate change

The scaling structure of the global road network.

Science.gov (United States)

Strano, Emanuele; Giometto, Andrea; Shai, Saray; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Mucha, Peter J; Rinaldo, Andrea

2017-10-01

Because of increasing global urbanization and its immediate consequences, including changes in patterns of food demand, circulation and land use, the next century will witness a major increase in the extent of paved roads built worldwide. To model the effects of this increase, it is crucial to understand whether possible self-organized patterns are inherent in the global road network structure. Here, we use the largest updated database comprising all major roads on the Earth, together with global urban and cropland inventories, to suggest that road length distributions within croplands are indistinguishable from urban ones, once rescaled to account for the difference in mean road length. Such similarity extends to road length distributions within urban or agricultural domains of a given area. We find two distinct regimes for the scaling of the mean road length with the associated area, holding in general at small and at large values of the latter. In suitably large urban and cropland domains, we find that mean and total road lengths increase linearly with their domain area, differently from earlier suggestions. Scaling regimes suggest that simple and universal mechanisms regulate urban and cropland road expansion at the global scale. As such, our findings bear implications for global road infrastructure growth based on land-use change and for planning policies sustaining urban expansions.

Propagation properties of Rossby waves for latitudinal β-plane variations of f and zonal variations of the shallow water speed

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. T. Duba

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Using the shallow water equations for a rotating layer of fluid, the wave and dispersion equations for Rossby waves are developed for the cases of both the standard β-plane approximation for the latitudinal variation of the Coriolis parameter f and a zonal variation of the shallow water speed. It is well known that the wave normal diagram for the standard (mid-latitude Rossby wave on a β-plane is a circle in wave number (ky,kx space, whose centre is displaced −β/2 ω units along the negative kx axis, and whose radius is less than this displacement, which means that phase propagation is entirely westward. This form of anisotropy (arising from the latitudinal y variation of f, combined with the highly dispersive nature of the wave, gives rise to a group velocity diagram which permits eastward as well as westward propagation. It is shown that the group velocity diagram is an ellipse, whose centre is displaced westward, and whose major and minor axes give the maximum westward, eastward and northward (southward group speeds as functions of the frequency and a parameter m which measures the ratio of the low frequency-long wavelength Rossby wave speed to the shallow water speed. We believe these properties of group velocity diagram have not been elucidated in this way before. We present a similar derivation of the wave normal diagram and its associated group velocity curve for the case of a zonal (x variation of the shallow water speed, which may arise when the depth of an ocean varies zonally from a continental shelf.

ARE PROTOPLANETARY DISKS BORN WITH VORTICES? ROSSBY WAVE INSTABILITY DRIVEN BY PROTOSTELLAR INFALL

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bae, Jaehan; Hartmann, Lee [Deptartment of Astronomy, University of Michigan, 1085 S. University Ave., Ann Arbor, MI 48109 (United States); Zhu, Zhaohuan, E-mail: jaehbae@umich.edu, E-mail: lhartm@umich.edu, E-mail: zhuzh@astro.princeton.edu [Department of Astrophysical Sciences, Princeton University, 4 Ivy Lane, Peyton Hall, Princeton, NJ 08544 (United States)

2015-05-20

We carry out two-fluid, two-dimensional global hydrodynamic simulations to test whether protostellar infall can trigger the Rossby wave instability (RWI) in protoplanetry disks. Our results show that infall can trigger the RWI and generate vortices near the outer edge of the mass landing on the disk (i.e., centrifugal radius). We find that the RWI is triggered under a variety of conditions, although the details depend on the disk parameters and the infall pattern. The common key feature of triggering the RWI is the steep radial gradient of the azimuthal velocity induced by the local increase in density at the outer edge of the infall region. Vortices form when the instability enters the nonlinear regime. In our standard model where self-gravity is neglected, vortices merge together to a single vortex within ∼20 local orbital times, and the merged vortex survives for the remaining duration of the calculation (>170 local orbital times). The vortex takes part in outward angular momentum transport, with a Reynolds stress of ≲10{sup −2}. Our two-fluid calculations show that vortices efficiently trap dust particles with stopping times of the order of the orbital time, locally enhancing the dust to gas ratio for particles of the appropriate size by a factor of ∼40 in our standard model. When self-gravity is considered, however, vortices tend to be impeded from merging and may eventually dissipate. We conclude it may well be that protoplanetary disks have favorable conditions for vortex formation during the protostellar infall phase, which might enhance early planetary core formation.

ARE PROTOPLANETARY DISKS BORN WITH VORTICES? ROSSBY WAVE INSTABILITY DRIVEN BY PROTOSTELLAR INFALL

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bae, Jaehan; Hartmann, Lee; Zhu, Zhaohuan

2015-01-01

We carry out two-fluid, two-dimensional global hydrodynamic simulations to test whether protostellar infall can trigger the Rossby wave instability (RWI) in protoplanetry disks. Our results show that infall can trigger the RWI and generate vortices near the outer edge of the mass landing on the disk (i.e., centrifugal radius). We find that the RWI is triggered under a variety of conditions, although the details depend on the disk parameters and the infall pattern. The common key feature of triggering the RWI is the steep radial gradient of the azimuthal velocity induced by the local increase in density at the outer edge of the infall region. Vortices form when the instability enters the nonlinear regime. In our standard model where self-gravity is neglected, vortices merge together to a single vortex within ∼20 local orbital times, and the merged vortex survives for the remaining duration of the calculation (>170 local orbital times). The vortex takes part in outward angular momentum transport, with a Reynolds stress of ≲10 −2 . Our two-fluid calculations show that vortices efficiently trap dust particles with stopping times of the order of the orbital time, locally enhancing the dust to gas ratio for particles of the appropriate size by a factor of ∼40 in our standard model. When self-gravity is considered, however, vortices tend to be impeded from merging and may eventually dissipate. We conclude it may well be that protoplanetary disks have favorable conditions for vortex formation during the protostellar infall phase, which might enhance early planetary core formation

Conservation laws of wave action and potential enstrophy for Rossby waves in a stratified atmosphere

Science.gov (United States)

Straus, D. M.

1983-01-01

The evolution of wave energy, enstrophy, and wave motion for atmospheric Rossby waves in a variable mean flow are discussed from a theoretical and pedagogic standpoint. In the absence of mean flow gradients, the wave energy density satisfies a local conservation law, with the appropriate flow velocity being the group velocity. In the presence of mean flow variations, wave energy is not conserved, but wave action is, provided the mean flow is independent of longitude. Wave enstrophy is conserved for arbitrary variations of the mean flow. Connections with Eliassen-Palm flux are also discussed.

Global terrestrial biogeochemistry: Perturbations, interactions, and time scales

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Braswell, B.H. Jr.

1996-12-01

Global biogeochemical processes are being perturbed by human activity, principally that which is associated with industrial activity and expansion of urban and agricultural complexes. Perturbations have manifested themselves at least since the beginning of the 19th Century, and include emissions of CO{sub 2} and other pollutants from fossil fuel combustion, agricultural emissions of reactive nitrogen, and direct disruption of ecosystem function through land conversion. These perturbations yield local impacts, but there are also global consequences that are the sum of local-scale influences. Several approaches to understanding the global-scale implications of chemical perturbations to the Earth system are discussed. The lifetime of anthropogenic CO{sub 2} in the atmosphere is an important concept for understanding the current and future commitment to an altered atmospheric heat budget. The importance of the terrestrial biogeochemistry relative to the lifetime of excess CO{sub 2} is demonstrated using dynamic, aggregated models of the global carbon cycle.

Development and Psychometric Evaluation of a Clinical Global Impression for Schizoaffective Disorder Scale

OpenAIRE

Allen, Michael H; Daniel, David G; Revicki, Dennis A; Canuso, Carla M; Turkoz, Ibrahim; Fu, Dong-Jing; Alphs, Larry; Ishak, K. Jack; Bartko, John J; Lindenmayer, Jean-Pierre

2012-01-01

Objective: The Clinical Global Impression for Schizoaffective Disorder scale is a new rating scale adapted from the Clinical Global Impression scale for use in patients with schizoaffective disorder. The psychometric characteristics of the Clinical Global Impression for Schizoaffective Disorder are described.

Development and psychometric evaluation of a clinical global impression for schizoaffective disorder scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, Michael H; Daniel, David G; Revicki, Dennis A; Canuso, Carla M; Turkoz, Ibrahim; Fu, Dong-Jing; Alphs, Larry; Ishak, K Jack; Bartko, John J; Lindenmayer, Jean-Pierre

2012-01-01

The Clinical Global Impression for Schizoaffective Disorder scale is a new rating scale adapted from the Clinical Global Impression scale for use in patients with schizoaffective disorder. The psychometric characteristics of the Clinical Global Impression for Schizoaffective Disorder are described. Content validity was assessed using an investigator questionnaire. Inter-rater reliability was determined with 12 sets of videotaped interviews rated independently by two trained individuals. Test-retest reliability was assessed using 30 randomly selected raters from clinical trials who evaluated the same videos on separate occasions two weeks apart. Convergent and divergent validity and effect size were evaluated by comparing scores between the Clinical Global Impression for Schizoaffective Disorder and the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale, 21-item Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression, and Young Mania Rating Scale scales using pooled patient data from two clinical trials. Clinical Global Impression for Schizoaffective Disorder scores were then linked to corresponding Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale scores. Content validity was strong. Inter-rater agreement was good to excellent for most scales and subscales (intra-class correlation coefficient ≥ 0.50). Test-retest showed good reproducibility, with intraclass correlation coefficients ranging from 0.444 to 0.898. Spearman correlations between Clinical Global Impression for Schizoaffective Disorder domains and corresponding symptom scales were 0.60 or greater, and effect sizes for Clinical Global Impression for Schizoaffective Disorder overall and domain scores were similar to Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale Young Mania Rating Scale, and 21-item Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression scores. Raters anticipated that the scale might be less effective in distinguishing negative from depressive symptoms, and, in fact, the results here may reflect that clinical reality. Multiple lines of evidence support the

Global scale ionospheric irregularities associated with thunderstorm activity

CERN Document Server

Pulinets, S A

2002-01-01

The potential difference near 280 kV exists between ground and ionosphere. This potential difference is generated by thunderstorm discharges all over the world, and return current closes the circuit in the areas of fair weather (so-called fair weather current). The model calculations and experimental measurements clearly demonstrate non-uniform latitude-longitude distribution of electric field within the atmosphere. The recent calculations show that the strong large scale vertical atmospheric electric field can penetrate into the ionosphere and create large scale irregularities of the electron concentration. To check this the global distributions of thunderstorm activity obtained with the satellite monitoring for different seasons were compared with the global distributions of ionosphere critical frequency (which is equivalent to peak electron concentration) obtained with the help of satellite topside sounding. The similarity of the obtained global distributions clearly demonstrates the effects of thunderstor...

Global scale ionospheric irregularities associated with thunderstorm activity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pulinets, Sergey A.; Depuev, Victor H.

2003-01-01

The potential difference near 280 kV exists between ground and ionosphere. This potential difference is generated by thunderstorm discharges all over the world, and return current closes the circuit in the areas of fair weather (so-called fair weather current). The model calculations and experimental measurements clearly demonstrate non-uniform latitude-longitude distribution of electric field within the atmosphere. The recent calculations show that the strong large scale vertical atmospheric electric field can penetrate into the ionosphere and create large scale irregularities of the electron concentration. To check this the global distributions of thunderstorm activity obtained with the satellite monitoring for different seasons were compared with the global distributions of ionosphere critical frequency (which is equivalent to peak electron concentration) obtained with the help of satellite topside sounding. The similarity of the obtained global distributions clearly demonstrates the effects of thunderstorm electric fields onto the Earth's ionosphere. (author)

Emergence of global scaling behaviour in the coupled Earth-atmosphere interaction

OpenAIRE

Fallah, Bijan; Saberi, Abbas Ali; Sodoudi, Sahar

2016-01-01

Scale invariance property in the global geometry of Earth may lead to a coupled interactive behaviour between various components of the climate system. One of the most interesting correlations exists between spatial statistics of the global topography and the temperature on Earth. Here we show that the power-law behaviour observed in the Earth topography via different approaches, resembles a scaling law in the global spatial distribution of independent atmospheric parameters. We report on obs...

Continent-scale global change attribution in European birds - combining annual and decadal time scales

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jørgensen, Peter Søgaard; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin; Thorup, Kasper

2016-01-01

foundation for attributing species responses to global change may be achieved by complementing an attributes-based approach by one estimating the relationship between repeated measures of organismal and environmental changes over short time scales. To assess the benefit of this multiscale perspective, we...... on or in the peak of the breeding season with the largest effect sizes observed in cooler parts of species' climatic ranges. Our results document the potential of combining time scales and integrating both species attributes and environmental variables for global change attribution. We suggest such an approach......Species attributes are commonly used to infer impacts of environmental change on multiyear species trends, e.g. decadal changes in population size. However, by themselves attributes are of limited value in global change attribution since they do not measure the changing environment. A broader...

Toward a global multi-scale heliophysics observatory

Science.gov (United States)

Semeter, J. L.

2017-12-01

We live within the only known stellar-planetary system that supports life. What we learn about this system is not only relevant to human society and its expanding reach beyond Earth's surface, but also to our understanding of the origins and evolution of life in the universe. Heliophysics is focused on solar-terrestrial interactions mediated by the magnetic and plasma environment surrounding the planet. A defining feature of energy flow through this environment is interaction across physical scales. A solar disturbance aimed at Earth can excite geospace variability on scales ranging from thousands of kilometers (e.g., global convection, region 1 and 2 currents, electrojet intensifications) to 10's of meters (e.g., equatorial spread-F, dispersive Alfven waves, plasma instabilities). Most "geospace observatory" concepts are focused on a single modality (e.g., HF/UHF radar, magnetometer, optical) providing a limited parameter set over a particular spatiotemporal resolution. Data assimilation methods have been developed to couple heterogeneous and distributed observations, but resolution has typically been prescribed a-priori and according to physical assumptions. This paper develops a conceptual framework for the next generation multi-scale heliophysics observatory, capable of revealing and quantifying the complete spectrum of cross-scale interactions occurring globally within the geospace system. The envisioned concept leverages existing assets, enlists citizen scientists, and exploits low-cost access to the geospace environment. Examples are presented where distributed multi-scale observations have resulted in substantial new insight into the inner workings of our stellar-planetary system.

Bringing the Global Scale to Education in Natural Resources Management

Science.gov (United States)

Turner, D. P.

2017-12-01

Given the ominous trajectory of rapid global environmental change, environmental managers must grapple with global scale structures, processes, and concepts. The concept of the Anthropocene Epoch, albeit contested, is highly integrative across disciplines and temporal scales, and thus potentially helpful in the context of educating environmental managers. It can be framed temporally in terms of the geologic history of the global environment, the initiation and acceleration of anthropogenic impacts on the environment, and a future global environment that is highly dependent on human decisions. A key lesson from Earth's pre-human geologic history is that global climate has generally been linked to greenhouse gas concentrations, and many mass extinction events were associated with high greenhouse gas concentrations. The pervasive impacts of the contemporary technosphere on the biosphere point especially to the need to conserve biosphere capital. Scenarios of Earth's future environment, based on Earth system models, suggest that business-as-usual technologies and economic practices will set the stage for a biophysical environment that is hostile (if not inimical) to a high technology global civilization. These lessons can inform and inspire sub-global management efforts to mitigate and adapt to global environmental change.

Atmospheric Rivers across Multi-scales of the Hydrologic cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, H.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) are defined as filamentary structures with strong water vapor transport in the atmosphere, moving as much water as is discharged by the Amazon River. As a large-scale phenomenon, ARs are embedded in the planetary-scale Rossby waves and account for the majority of poleward moisture transport in the midlatitudes. On the other hand, AR is the fundamental physical mechanism leading to extreme basin-scale precipitation and flooding over the U.S. West Coast in the winter season. The moisture transported by ARs is forced to rise and generate precipitation when it impinges on the mountainous coastal lands. My goal is to build the connection between the multi-scale features associated with ARs with their impacts on local hydrology, with particular focus on the U.S. West Coast. Moving across the different scales I have: (1) examined the planetary-scale dynamics in the upper-troposphere, and established a robust relationship between the two regimes of Rossby wave breaking and AR-precipitation and streamflow along the West Coast; (2) quantified the contribution from the tropics/subtropics to AR-related precipitation intensity and found a significant modulation from the large-scale thermodynamics; (3) developed a water tracer tool in a land surface model to track the lifecycle of the water collected from AR precipitation over the terrestrial system, so that the role of catchment-scale factors in modulating ARs' hydrological consequences could be examined. Ultimately, the information gather from these studies will indicate how the dynamic and thermodynamic changes as a response to climate change could affect the local flooding and water resource, which would be helpful in decision making.

Role of Interaction between Magnetic Rossby Waves and Tachocline Differential Rotation in Producing Solar Seasons

Science.gov (United States)

Dikpati, Mausumi; McIntosh, Scott W.; Bothun, Gregory; Cally, Paul S.; Ghosh, Siddhartha S.; Gilman, Peter A.; Umurhan, Orkan M.

2018-02-01

We present a nonlinear magnetohydrodynamic shallow-water model for the solar tachocline (MHD-SWT) that generates quasi-periodic tachocline nonlinear oscillations (TNOs) that can be identified with the recently discovered solar “seasons.” We discuss the properties of the hydrodynamic and magnetohydrodynamic Rossby waves that interact with the differential rotation and toroidal fields to sustain these oscillations, which occur due to back-and-forth energy exchanges among potential, kinetic, and magnetic energies. We perform model simulations for a few years, for selected example cases, in both hydrodynamic and magnetohydrodynamic regimes and show that the TNOs are robust features of the MHD-SWT model, occurring with periods of 2–20 months. We find that in certain cases multiple unstable shallow-water modes govern the dynamics, and TNO periods vary with time. In hydrodynamically governed TNOs, the energy exchange mechanism is simple, occurring between the Rossby waves and differential rotation. But in MHD cases, energy exchange becomes much more complex, involving energy flow among six energy reservoirs by means of eight different energy conversion processes. For toroidal magnetic bands of 5 and 35 kG peak amplitudes, both placed at 45° latitude and oppositely directed in north and south hemispheres, we show that the energy transfers responsible for TNO, as well as westward phase propagation, are evident in synoptic maps of the flow, magnetic field, and tachocline top-surface deformations. Nonlinear mode–mode interaction is particularly dramatic in the strong-field case. We also find that the TNO period increases with a decrease in rotation rate, implying that the younger Sun had more frequent seasons.

The ecology of dust: local- to global-scale perspectives

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Whicker, Jeffrey J [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Field, Jason P [UA; Belnap, Jayne [NON LANL; Breshears, David D [UA; Neff, Jason [CU; Okin, Gregory S [UCLA; Painter, Thomas H [UNIV OF ARIZONA; Ravi, Sujith [UNIV OF ARIZONA; Reheis, Marith C [UCLA; Reynolds, Richard L [NON LANL

2009-01-01

Emission and redistribution of dust due to wind erosion in drylands drives major biogeochemical dynamics and provides important aeolian environmental connectivity at scales from individual plants up to the global scale. Yet, perhaps because most relevant research on aeolian processes has been presented in a geosciences rather than ecological context, most ecological studies do not explicitly consider dust-driven processes. To bridge this disciplinary gap, we provide a general overview of the ecological importance of dust, examine complex interactions between wind erosion and ecosystem dynamics from the plant-interspace scale to regional and global scales, and highlight specific examples of how disturbance affects these interactions and their consequences. Changes in climate and intensification of land use will both likely lead to increased dust production. To address these challenges, environmental scientists, land managers and policy makers need to more explicitly consider dust in resource management decisions.

The Tunneling Method for Global Optimization in Multidimensional Scaling.

Science.gov (United States)

Groenen, Patrick J. F.; Heiser, Willem J.

1996-01-01

A tunneling method for global minimization in multidimensional scaling is introduced and adjusted for multidimensional scaling with general Minkowski distances. The method alternates a local search step with a tunneling step in which a different configuration is sought with the same STRESS implementation. (SLD)

Complete classification of discrete resonant Rossby/drift wave triads on periodic domains

Science.gov (United States)

Bustamante, Miguel D.; Hayat, Umar

2013-09-01

We consider the set of Diophantine equations that arise in the context of the partial differential equation called "barotropic vorticity equation" on periodic domains, when nonlinear wave interactions are studied to leading order in the amplitudes. The solutions to this set of Diophantine equations are of interest in atmosphere (Rossby waves) and Tokamak plasmas (drift waves), because they provide the values of the spectral wavevectors that interact resonantly via three-wave interactions. These wavenumbers come in "triads", i.e., groups of three wavevectors. We provide the full solution to the Diophantine equations in the physically sensible limit when the Rossby deformation radius is infinite. The method is completely new, and relies on mapping the unknown variables via rational transformations, first to rational points on elliptic curves and surfaces, and from there to rational points on quadratic forms of "Minkowski" type (such as the familiar space-time in special relativity). Classical methods invented centuries ago by Fermat, Euler, Lagrange, Minkowski, are used to classify all solutions to our original Diophantine equations, thus providing a computational method to generate numerically all the resonant triads in the system. Computationally speaking, our method has a clear advantage over brute-force numerical search: on a 10,0002 grid, the brute-force search would take 15 years using optimised C codes on a cluster, whereas our method takes about 40 min using a laptop. Moreover, the method is extended to generate so-called quasi-resonant triads, which are defined by relaxing the resonant condition on the frequencies, allowing for a small mismatch. Quasi-resonant triads' distribution in wavevector space is robust with respect to physical perturbations, unlike resonant triads' distribution. Therefore, the extended method is really valuable in practical terms. We show that the set of quasi-resonant triads form an intricate network of connected triads, forming

Instabilities at planetary gap edges in 3D self-gravitating disks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lin Min-Kai

2013-04-01

Full Text Available Numerical simulations are presented to study the stability of gaps opened by giant planets in 3D self-gravitating disks. In weakly self-gravitating disks, a few vortices develop at the gap edge and merge on orbital time-scales. The result is one large but weak vortex with Rossby number -0.01. In moderately self-gravitating disks, more vortices develop and their merging is resisted on dynamical time-scales. Self-gravity can sustain multi-vortex configurations, with Rossby number -0.2 to -0.1, over a time-scale of order 100 orbits. Self-gravity also enhances the vortex vertical density stratification, even in disks with initial Toomre parameter of order 10. However, vortex formation is suppressed in strongly self-gravitating disks and replaced by a global spiral instability associated with the gap edge which develops during gap formation.

Continental and global scale flood forecasting systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Emerton, Rebecca E.; Stephens, Elisabeth M.; Pappenberger, Florian; Pagano, Thomas P.; Weerts, A.H.; Wood, A.; Salamon, Peter; Brown, James D.; Hjerdt, Niclas; Donnelly, Chantal; Baugh, Calum A.; Cloke, Hannah L.

2016-01-01

Floods are the most frequent of natural disasters, affecting millions of people across the globe every year. The anticipation and forecasting of floods at the global scale is crucial to preparing for severe events and providing early awareness where local flood models and warning services may not

Carbon budgets of biological soil crusts at micro-, meso-, and global scales

Science.gov (United States)

Sancho, Leopoldo G; Belnap, Jayne; Colesie, Claudia; Raggio, Jose; Weber, Bettina

2016-01-01

The importance of biocrusts in the ecology of arid lands across all continents is widely recognized. In spite of this broad distribution, contributions of biocrusts to the global biogeochemical cycles have only recently been considered. While these studies opened a new view on the global role of biocrusts, they also clearly revealed the lack of data for many habitats and of overall standards for measurements and analysis. In order to understand carbon cycling in biocrusts and the progress which has been made during the last 15 years, we offer a multi-scale approach covering different climatic regions. We also include a discussion on available measurement techniques at each scale: A micro-scale section focuses on the individual organism level, including modeling based on the combination of field and lab data. The meso-scale section addresses the CO2 exchange of a complete ecosystem or at the community level. Finally, we consider the contribution of biocrusts at a global scale, giving a general perspective of the most relevant findings regarding the role of biological soil crusts in the global terrestrial carbon cycle.

Globalization of Brewing and Economies of Scale

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Erik Strøjer; Wu, Yanqing

The globalization of the brewing industry after the turn of the century through a large wave of mergers and acquisitions has changed the structure of the world beer markets. The paper tracks the development in industry concentrations from 2002 to 2012 and points to high transportation costs...... for beers and economies of scale in advertising and sales efforts as the main factors behind the wave of cross-country mergers and acquisitions. Using firm-level data from the largest breweries, the estimations verify significant economies of scale in marketing and distribution costs. Based on information...

Spatial Scaling of Global Rainfall and Flood Extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Devineni, Naresh; Lall, Upmanu; Xi, Chen; Ward, Philip

2014-05-01

Floods associated with severe storms are a significant source of risk for property, life and supply chains. These property losses tend to be determined as much by the duration and spatial extent of flooding as by the depth and velocity of inundation. High duration floods are typically induced by persistent rainfall (up to 30 day duration) as seen recently in Thailand, Pakistan, the Ohio and the Mississippi Rivers, France, and Germany. Events related to persistent and recurrent rainfall appear to correspond to the persistence of specific global climate patterns that may be identifiable from global, historical data fields, and also from climate models that project future conditions. In this paper, we investigate the statistical properties of the spatial manifestation of the rainfall exceedances and floods. We present the first ever results on a global analysis of the scaling characteristics of extreme rainfall and flood event duration, volumes and contiguous flooded areas as a result of large scale organization of long duration rainfall events. Results are organized by latitude and with reference to the phases of ENSO, and reveal surprising invariance across latitude. Speculation as to the potential relation to the dynamical factors is presented

DIPOLE COLLAPSE AND DYNAMO WAVES IN GLOBAL DIRECT NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schrinner, Martin; Dormy, Emmanuel [MAG (ENS/IPGP), LRA, Ecole Normale Superieure, 24 Rue Lhomond, 75252 Paris Cedex 05 (France); Petitdemange, Ludovic, E-mail: martin@schrinner.eu [Previously at Max-Planck-Institut fuer Astronomie, Koenigstuhl 17, 69117 Heidelberg, Germany. (Germany)

2012-06-20

Magnetic fields of low-mass stars and planets are thought to originate from self-excited dynamo action in their convective interiors. Observations reveal a variety of field topologies ranging from large-scale, axial dipoles to more structured magnetic fields. In this article, we investigate more than 70 three-dimensional, self-consistent dynamo models in the Boussinesq approximation obtained by direct numerical simulations. The control parameters, the aspect ratio, and the mechanical boundary conditions have been varied to build up this sample of models. Both strongly dipolar and multipolar models have been obtained. We show that these dynamo regimes in general can be distinguished by the ratio of a typical convective length scale to the Rossby radius. Models with a predominantly dipolar magnetic field were obtained, if the convective length scale is at least an order of magnitude larger than the Rossby radius. Moreover, we highlight the role of the strong shear associated with the geostrophic zonal flow for models with stress-free boundary conditions. In this case the above transition disappears and is replaced by a region of bistability for which dipolar and multipolar dynamos coexist. We interpret our results in terms of dynamo eigenmodes using the so-called test-field method. We can thus show that models in the dipolar regime are characterized by an isolated 'single mode'. Competing overtones become significant as the boundary to multipolar dynamos is approached. We discuss how these findings relate to previous models and to observations.

Global-scale hydrological response to future glacier mass loss

Science.gov (United States)

Huss, Matthias; Hock, Regine

2018-01-01

Worldwide glacier retreat and associated future runoff changes raise major concerns over the sustainability of global water resources1-4, but global-scale assessments of glacier decline and the resulting hydrological consequences are scarce5,6. Here we compute global glacier runoff changes for 56 large-scale glacierized drainage basins to 2100 and analyse the glacial impact on streamflow. In roughly half of the investigated basins, the modelled annual glacier runoff continues to rise until a maximum (`peak water') is reached, beyond which runoff steadily declines. In the remaining basins, this tipping point has already been passed. Peak water occurs later in basins with larger glaciers and higher ice-cover fractions. Typically, future glacier runoff increases in early summer but decreases in late summer. Although most of the 56 basins have less than 2% ice coverage, by 2100 one-third of them might experience runoff decreases greater than 10% due to glacier mass loss in at least one month of the melt season, with the largest reductions in central Asia and the Andes. We conclude that, even in large-scale basins with minimal ice-cover fraction, the downstream hydrological effects of continued glacier wastage can be substantial, but the magnitudes vary greatly among basins and throughout the melt season.

Drifting and meandering of Olive Ridley Sea turtles in the Bay of Bengal: Role of oceanic Rossby waves

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Ram, P.S.; Rao, S.A.; Sadhuram, Y.

in the direction of geostrophic currents. It is found that the locations of these thermal fronts in the Bay of Bengal are primarily determined by the Oceanic Rossby waves and local Ekman pumping. Key Words: Bay of Bengal, Circulation, Cyclonic and Anti... drawn with black dots shows the meandering path of the rest of the three turtles. Locations of the turtles at different times are also shown as white stars. A strong anti-cyclonic gyre (warm core eddy) centered at 17º N with SSHD above 30 cm...

Transforming Global Health by Improving the Science of Scale-Up.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Margaret E Kruk

2016-03-01

Full Text Available In its report Global Health 2035, the Commission on Investing in Health proposed that health investments can reduce mortality in nearly all low- and middle-income countries to very low levels, thereby averting 10 million deaths per year from 2035 onward. Many of these gains could be achieved through scale-up of existing technologies and health services. A key instrument to close this gap is policy and implementation research (PIR that aims to produce generalizable evidence on what works to implement successful interventions at scale. Rigorously designed PIR promotes global learning and local accountability. Much greater national and global investments in PIR capacity will be required to enable the scaling of effective approaches and to prevent the recycling of failed ideas. Sample questions for the PIR research agenda include how to close the gap in the delivery of essential services to the poor, which population interventions for non-communicable diseases are most applicable in different contexts, and how to engage non-state actors in equitable provision of health services in the context of universal health coverage.

Using friends as sensors to detect global-scale contagious outbreaks.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Manuel Garcia-Herranz

Full Text Available Recent research has focused on the monitoring of global-scale online data for improved detection of epidemics, mood patterns, movements in the stock market political revolutions, box-office revenues, consumer behaviour and many other important phenomena. However, privacy considerations and the sheer scale of data available online are quickly making global monitoring infeasible, and existing methods do not take full advantage of local network structure to identify key nodes for monitoring. Here, we develop a model of the contagious spread of information in a global-scale, publicly-articulated social network and show that a simple method can yield not just early detection, but advance warning of contagious outbreaks. In this method, we randomly choose a small fraction of nodes in the network and then we randomly choose a friend of each node to include in a group for local monitoring. Using six months of data from most of the full Twittersphere, we show that this friend group is more central in the network and it helps us to detect viral outbreaks of the use of novel hashtags about 7 days earlier than we could with an equal-sized randomly chosen group. Moreover, the method actually works better than expected due to network structure alone because highly central actors are both more active and exhibit increased diversity in the information they transmit to others. These results suggest that local monitoring is not just more efficient, but also more effective, and it may be applied to monitor contagious processes in global-scale networks.

Global and local confinement scaling laws of NBI-heated gas-puffing plasmas on LHD

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamazaki, K.; Miyazawa, J.; Sakakibara, S.; Yamada, H.; Narihara, K.; Tanaka, K.; Osakabe, M.

2003-01-01

The relation between global confinement scaling laws and local transport characteristics is evaluated on the Large Helical Device (LHD). Previous 'new LHD' global scaling laws are revised using the precise plasma edge definition and the recent LHD data of 4th, 5th and 6th experimental campaigns. Strong Gyro-Bohm-like feature of global confinement is reconfirmed. The magnetic field dependence and geometrical scale dependence are stronger than the conventional scaling laws. Using same database of LHD data, the radial profiles of transport coefficients are evaluated, and it is reconfirmed that the local transport in the core is Gyro-Bohm-like, and that near the boundary is strong Gyro-Bohm-like. The global confinement property is consistent with effective transport coefficient near the edge. (author)

Prospects for improving the representation of coastal and shelf seas in global ocean models

Science.gov (United States)

Holt, Jason; Hyder, Patrick; Ashworth, Mike; Harle, James; Hewitt, Helene T.; Liu, Hedong; New, Adrian L.; Pickles, Stephen; Porter, Andrew; Popova, Ekaterina; Icarus Allen, J.; Siddorn, John; Wood, Richard

2017-02-01

Accurately representing coastal and shelf seas in global ocean models represents one of the grand challenges of Earth system science. They are regions of immense societal importance through the goods and services they provide, hazards they pose and their role in global-scale processes and cycles, e.g. carbon fluxes and dense water formation. However, they are poorly represented in the current generation of global ocean models. In this contribution, we aim to briefly characterise the problem, and then to identify the important physical processes, and their scales, needed to address this issue in the context of the options available to resolve these scales globally and the evolving computational landscape.We find barotropic and topographic scales are well resolved by the current state-of-the-art model resolutions, e.g. nominal 1/12°, and still reasonably well resolved at 1/4°; here, the focus is on process representation. We identify tides, vertical coordinates, river inflows and mixing schemes as four areas where modelling approaches can readily be transferred from regional to global modelling with substantial benefit. In terms of finer-scale processes, we find that a 1/12° global model resolves the first baroclinic Rossby radius for only ˜ 8 % of regions benefit of improved resolution and process representation using 1/12° global- and basin-scale northern North Atlantic nucleus for a European model of the ocean (NEMO) simulations; the latter includes tides and a k-ɛ vertical mixing scheme. These are compared with global stratification observations and 19 models from CMIP5. In terms of correlation and basin-wide rms error, the high-resolution models outperform all these CMIP5 models. The model with tides shows improved seasonal cycles compared to the high-resolution model without tides. The benefits of resolution are particularly apparent in eastern boundary upwelling zones.To explore the balance between the size of a globally refined model and that of

The Spatial Scaling of Global Rainfall Extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Devineni, N.; Xi, C.; Lall, U.; Rahill-Marier, B.

2013-12-01

Floods associated with severe storms are a significant source of risk for property, life and supply chains. These property losses tend to be determined as much by the duration of flooding as by the depth and velocity of inundation. High duration floods are typically induced by persistent rainfall (upto 30 day duration) as seen recently in Thailand, Pakistan, the Ohio and the Mississippi Rivers, France, and Germany. Events related to persistent and recurrent rainfall appear to correspond to the persistence of specific global climate patterns that may be identifiable from global, historical data fields, and also from climate models that project future conditions. A clear understanding of the space-time rainfall patterns for events or for a season will enable in assessing the spatial distribution of areas likely to have a high/low inundation potential for each type of rainfall forcing. In this paper, we investigate the statistical properties of the spatial manifestation of the rainfall exceedances. We also investigate the connection of persistent rainfall events at different latitudinal bands to large-scale climate phenomena such as ENSO. Finally, we present the scaling phenomena of contiguous flooded areas as a result of large scale organization of long duration rainfall events. This can be used for spatially distributed flood risk assessment conditional on a particular rainfall scenario. Statistical models for spatio-temporal loss simulation including model uncertainty to support regional and portfolio analysis can be developed.

Irrational Delay Revisited: Examining Five Procrastination Scales in a Global Sample

OpenAIRE

Frode Svartdal; Piers Steel

2017-01-01

Source at http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2017.01927 Scales attempting to measure procrastination focus on different facets of the phenomenon, yet they share a common understanding of procrastination as an unnecessary, unwanted, and disadvantageous delay. The present paper examines in a global sample (N = 4,169) five different procrastination scales – Decisional Procrastination Scale (DPS), Irrational Procrastination Scale (IPS), Pure Procrastination Scale (PPS), Adult Inventory of Procr...

Empirical scaling law connecting persistence and severity of global terrorism

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Jianbo; Fang, Peng; Liu, Feiyan

2017-09-01

Terrorism and counterterrorism have both been evolving rapidly. From time to time, there have been debates on whether the new terrorism is evolutionary or revolutionary. Such debate often becomes more heated after major terrorist activities, such as the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001 and the November 13, 2015 coordinated Paris terror attack. Using country-wide terrorism data since 1970, we show that there exist scaling laws governing the continuity and persistence of world-wide terrorism, with the long-term scaling parameter for each country closely related to its yearly global terrorism index. This suggests that the new terrorism is more accurately considered evolutionary. It is further shown that the imbalance in the seesaw of terrorism and counterterrorism is not only responsible for the scaling behavior found here, but also provides new means of quantifying the severity of the global terrorism.

Condiciones medias de invierno y ondas cuasi-estacionarias de Rossby asociadas a la frecuencia invernal de noches frias y cálidas en Argentina subtropical Mean winter conditions and quasi-stationary Rossby waves associated with the winter frequency of warm and cold nights in subtropical Argentina

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eduardo A Agosta

2012-12-01

nights (TN10 and warm nights (TN90 during winter (JJA over subtropical Argentina, to the north of 40°S and surrounding areas (ASA from meteorological stations and NCEP/DOE AMIP-II and ECMWF ERA-interim reanalysis data. It is found that the frequency of warm nights (Tmin over percentile 90, TN90 is modulated at interannual scales by quasi-stationary wave propagation induced by convection anomalies in the Indic and Pacific. The high frequency of warm nights is associated with anomalous warming over the central equatorial Pacific (positive phase of El Niño-Southern Oscillation, ENSO. The low frequency of warm nights is linked to anomalous convection over the monsoon Indian area and the western tropical southern Indic. Hence quasi-stationary Rossby wave activity propagation is favored over the Indic, Pacific and southern South America. Such a teleconnection favors in turn the high fequency of cold nights (Tmin below percentile 10, TN10. Instead, the low frequency of cold nights is linked to the low-frequency variability of the Southern Hemisphere high-latitude mode (SAM. It is found that winters with high (low frequency of cold (warm nights are characterized by a strengthening (weakening of the subtropical jet over southern South America and adjacent areas. The current remote forcings are related with atmospheric/oceanic processes that are interconnected at seasonal-interseasonal scales, which could allow us to develop statistical-dynamical forecasts for the higher or lower occurrence of warm or cold nights in winter.

Attribution of Large-Scale Climate Patterns to Seasonal Peak-Flow and Prospects for Prediction Globally

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Donghoon; Ward, Philip; Block, Paul

2018-02-01

Flood-related fatalities and impacts on society surpass those from all other natural disasters globally. While the inclusion of large-scale climate drivers in streamflow (or high-flow) prediction has been widely studied, an explicit link to global-scale long-lead prediction is lacking, which can lead to an improved understanding of potential flood propensity. Here we attribute seasonal peak-flow to large-scale climate patterns, including the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), using streamflow station observations and simulations from PCR-GLOBWB, a global-scale hydrologic model. Statistically significantly correlated climate patterns and streamflow autocorrelation are subsequently applied as predictors to build a global-scale season-ahead prediction model, with prediction performance evaluated by the mean squared error skill score (MSESS) and the categorical Gerrity skill score (GSS). Globally, fair-to-good prediction skill (20% ≤ MSESS and 0.2 ≤ GSS) is evident for a number of locations (28% of stations and 29% of land area), most notably in data-poor regions (e.g., West and Central Africa). The persistence of such relevant climate patterns can improve understanding of the propensity for floods at the seasonal scale. The prediction approach developed here lays the groundwork for further improving local-scale seasonal peak-flow prediction by identifying relevant global-scale climate patterns. This is especially attractive for regions with limited observations and or little capacity to develop flood early warning systems.

A dynamic global-coefficient mixed subgrid-scale model for large-eddy simulation of turbulent flows

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Singh, Satbir; You, Donghyun

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► A new SGS model is developed for LES of turbulent flows in complex geometries. ► A dynamic global-coefficient SGS model is coupled with a scale-similarity model. ► Overcome some of difficulties associated with eddy-viscosity closures. ► Does not require averaging or clipping of the model coefficient for stabilization. ► The predictive capability is demonstrated in a number of turbulent flow simulations. -- Abstract: A dynamic global-coefficient mixed subgrid-scale eddy-viscosity model for large-eddy simulation of turbulent flows in complex geometries is developed. In the present model, the subgrid-scale stress is decomposed into the modified Leonard stress, cross stress, and subgrid-scale Reynolds stress. The modified Leonard stress is explicitly computed assuming a scale similarity, while the cross stress and the subgrid-scale Reynolds stress are modeled using the global-coefficient eddy-viscosity model. The model coefficient is determined by a dynamic procedure based on the global-equilibrium between the subgrid-scale dissipation and the viscous dissipation. The new model relieves some of the difficulties associated with an eddy-viscosity closure, such as the nonalignment of the principal axes of the subgrid-scale stress tensor and the strain rate tensor and the anisotropy of turbulent flow fields, while, like other dynamic global-coefficient models, it does not require averaging or clipping of the model coefficient for numerical stabilization. The combination of the global-coefficient eddy-viscosity model and a scale-similarity model is demonstrated to produce improved predictions in a number of turbulent flow simulations

The Lifespan Self-Esteem Scale: Initial Validation of a New Measure of Global Self-Esteem.

Science.gov (United States)

Harris, Michelle A; Donnellan, M Brent; Trzesniewski, Kali H

2018-01-01

This article introduces the Lifespan Self-Esteem Scale (LSE), a short measure of global self-esteem suitable for populations drawn from across the lifespan. Many existing measures of global self-esteem cannot be used across multiple developmental periods due to changes in item content, response formats, and other scale characteristics. This creates a need for a new lifespan scale so that changes in global self-esteem over time can be studied without confounding maturational changes with alterations in the measure. The LSE is a 4-item measure with a 5-point response format using items inspired by established self-esteem scales. The scale is essentially unidimensional and internally consistent, and it converges with existing self-esteem measures across ages 5 to 93 (N = 2,714). Thus, the LSE appears to be a useful measure of global self-esteem suitable for use across the lifespan as well as contexts where a short measure is desirable, such as populations with short attention spans or large projects assessing multiple constructs. Moreover, the LSE is one of the first global self-esteem scales to be validated for children younger than age 8, which provides the opportunity to broaden the field to include research on early formation and development of global self-esteem, an area that has previously been limited.

Regional-Scale Forcing and Feedbacks from Alternative Scenarios of Global-Scale Land Use Change

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, A. D.; Chini, L. P.; Collins, W.; Janetos, A. C.; Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Thomson, A. M.; Torn, M. S.

2011-12-01

Future patterns of land use change depend critically on the degree to which terrestrial carbon management strategies, such as biological carbon sequestration and biofuels, are utilized in order to mitigate global climate change. Furthermore, land use change associated with terrestrial carbon management induces biogeophysical changes to surface energy budgets that perturb climate at regional and possibly global scales, activating different feedback processes depending on the nature and location of the land use change. As a first step in a broader effort to create an integrated earth system model, we examine two scenarios of future anthropogenic activity generated by the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) within the full-coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM). Each scenario stabilizes radiative forcing from greenhouse gases and aerosols at 4.5 W/m^2. In the first, stabilization is achieved through a universal carbon tax that values terrestrial carbon equally with fossil carbon, leading to modest afforestation globally and low biofuel utilization. In the second scenario, stabilization is achieved with a tax on fossil fuel and industrial carbon alone. In this case, biofuel utilization increases dramatically and crop area expands to claim approximately 50% of forest cover globally. By design, these scenarios exhibit identical climate forcing from atmospheric constituents. Thus, differences among them can be attributed to the biogeophysical effects of land use change. In addition, we utilize offline radiative transfer and offline land model simulations to identify forcing and feedback mechanisms operating in different regions. We find that boreal deforestation has a strong climatic signature due to significant albedo change coupled with a regional-scale water vapor feedback. Tropical deforestation, on the other hand, has more subtle effects on climate. Globally, the two scenarios yield warming trends over the 21st century that differ by 0.5 degrees Celsius. This

A new technique based on the transformation of variables for nonlinear drift and Rossby vortices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Orito, Kohtaro

1996-07-01

The quasi-two-dimensional nonlinear equations for drift and Rossby vortices have some stationary multipole solutions, and especially the dipole vortex solution is called modon. These solutions are valid only in the lowest order where the fluid velocity has a stream function. In order to investigate features of the multipole solutions more accurately, the effect of the higher order terms, for example the polarization drift in a plasma or the Coriolis force in a rotating planet, needs to be considered. It is shown that the higher order analysis through a new technique based on a transformation of variables is much easier than a straightforward iteration. The solutions in this analysis are obtained by inverse transformation to the original coordinates, where the profiles of potentials are distorted by the effects of higher order terms. (author)

The East Atlantic - West Russia Teleconnection in the North Atlantic: Climate Impact and Relation to Rossby Wave Propagation

Science.gov (United States)

Lim, Young-Kwon

2014-01-01

Large-scale winter teleconnection of the East Atlantic - West Russia (EA-WR) over the Atlantic and surrounding regions is examined in order to quantify its impacts on temperature and precipitation and identify the physical mechanisms responsible for its existence. A rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) analysis of the upper-tropospheric monthly height field captures successfully the EA-WR pattern and its interannual variation, with the North Atlantic Oscillation as the first mode. EA-WRs climate impact extends from eastern North America to Eurasia. The positive (negative) EA-WR produces positive (negative) temperature anomalies over the eastern US, western Europe and Russia east of Caspian Sea, with negative (positive) anomalies over eastern Canada, eastern Europe including Ural Mountains and the Middle East. These anomalies are largely explained by lower-tropospheric temperature advections. Positive (negative) precipitation anomalies are found over the mid-latitude Atlantic and central Russia around 60E, where lower-level cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation anomaly is dominant. The eastern Canada and the western Europe are characterized by negative (positive) precipitation anomalies.The EA-WR is found to be closely associated with Rossby wave propagation. Wave activity fluxes show that it is strongly tied to large-scale stationary waves. Furthermore, a stationary wave model (SWM) forced with vorticity transients in the mid-latitude Atlantic (approximately 40N) or diabatic heat source over the subtropical Atlantic near the Caribbean Sea produces well-organized EA-WR-like wave patterns, respectively. Sensitivity tests with the SWM indicate improvement in the simulation of the EA-WR when the mean state is modified to have a positive NAO component that enhances upper-level westerlies between 40-60N.

Nonstandard scaling law of fluctuations in finite-size systems of globally coupled oscillators.

Science.gov (United States)

Nishikawa, Isao; Tanaka, Gouhei; Aihara, Kazuyuki

2013-08-01

Universal scaling laws form one of the central issues in physics. A nonstandard scaling law or a breakdown of a standard scaling law, on the other hand, can often lead to the finding of a new universality class in physical systems. Recently, we found that a statistical quantity related to fluctuations follows a nonstandard scaling law with respect to the system size in a synchronized state of globally coupled nonidentical phase oscillators [I. Nishikawa et al., Chaos 22, 013133 (2012)]. However, it is still unclear how widely this nonstandard scaling law is observed. In the present paper, we discuss the conditions required for the unusual scaling law in globally coupled oscillator systems and validate the conditions by numerical simulations of several different models.

Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) and the Continental-scale International Project (GCIP)

Science.gov (United States)

Vane, Deborah

1993-01-01

A discussion of the objectives of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) and the Continental-scale International Project (GCIP) is presented in vugraph form. The objectives of GEWEX are as follows: determine the hydrological cycle by global measurements; model the global hydrological cycle; improve observations and data assimilation; and predict response to environmental change. The objectives of GCIP are as follows: determine the time/space variability of the hydrological cycle over a continental-scale region; develop macro-scale hydrologic models that are coupled to atmospheric models; develop information retrieval schemes; and support regional climate change impact assessment.

Challenges and Opportunities in Modeling of the Global Atmosphere

Science.gov (United States)

Janjic, Zavisa; Djurdjevic, Vladimir; Vasic, Ratko

2016-04-01

are comparable to the scales of the dominant Rossby waves, such fictitious solutions are hard to identify and remove. Another new challenge on the global scale is that the limit of validity of the hydrostatic approximation is rapidly being approached. Relaxing the hydrostatic approximation requieres careful reformulation of the model dynamics and more computations and communications. The unified Non-hydrostatic Multi-scale Model (NMMB) will be briefly discussed as an example. The non-hydrostatic dynamics were designed in such a way as to avoid over-specification. The global version is run on the latitude-longitude grid, and the polar filter selectively slows down the waves that would otherwise be unstable without modifying their amplitudes. The model has been successfully tested on various scales. The skill of the medium range forecasts produced by the NMMB is comparable to that of other major medium range models, and its computational efficiency on parallel computers is good.

Towards understanding resprouting at the global scale

Science.gov (United States)

Pausas, Juli G.; Pratt, R. Brandon; Keeley, Jon E.; Jacobsen, Anna L.; Ramirez, Aaron R.; Vilagrosa, Alberto; Paula, Susana; Kanekua-Pia, Iolana N.; Davis, Stephen D.

2016-01-01

Understanding and predicting plant response to disturbance is of paramount importance in our changing world. Resprouting ability is often considered a simple qualitative trait and used in many ecological studies. Our aim is to show some of the complexities of resprouting while highlighting cautions that need be taken in using resprouting ability to predict vegetation responses across disturbance types and biomes. There are marked differences in resprouting depending on the disturbance type, and fire is often the most severe disturbance because it includes both defoliation and lethal temperatures. In the Mediterranean biome, there are differences in functional strategies to cope with water deficit between resprouters (dehydration avoiders) and nonresprouters (dehydration tolerators); however, there is little research to unambiguously extrapolate these results to other biomes. Furthermore, predictions of vegetation responses to changes in disturbance regimes require consideration not only of resprouting, but also other relevant traits (e.g. seeding, bark thickness) and the different correlations among traits observed in different biomes; models lacking these details would behave poorly at the global scale. Overall, the lessons learned from a given disturbance regime and biome (e.g. crown-fire Mediterranean ecosystems) can guide research in other ecosystems but should not be extrapolated at the global scale.

Multi-scale climate modelling over Southern Africa using a variable-resolution global model

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Engelbrecht, FA

2011-12-01

Full Text Available -mail: fengelbrecht@csir.co.za Multi-scale climate modelling over Southern Africa using a variable-resolution global model FA Engelbrecht1, 2*, WA Landman1, 3, CJ Engelbrecht4, S Landman5, MM Bopape1, B Roux6, JL McGregor7 and M Thatcher7 1 CSIR Natural... improvement. Keywords: multi-scale climate modelling, variable-resolution atmospheric model Introduction Dynamic climate models have become the primary tools for the projection of future climate change, at both the global and regional scales. Dynamic...

Challenges in Modeling of the Global Atmosphere

Science.gov (United States)

Janjic, Zavisa; Djurdjevic, Vladimir; Vasic, Ratko; Black, Tom

2015-04-01

") with significant amplitudes can develop. Due to their large scales, that are comparable to the scales of the dominant Rossby waves, such fictitious solutions are hard to identify and remove. Another new challenge on the global scale is that the limit of validity of the hydrostatic approximation is rapidly being approached. Having in mind the sensitivity of extended deterministic forecasts to small disturbances, we may need global non-hydrostatic models sooner than we think. The unified Non-hydrostatic Multi-scale Model (NMMB) that is being developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) as a part of the new NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) will be discussed as an example. The non-hydrostatic dynamics were designed in such a way as to avoid over-specification. The global version is run on the latitude-longitude grid, and the polar filter selectively slows down the waves that would otherwise be unstable. The model formulation has been successfully tested on various scales. A global forecasting system based on the NMMB has been run in order to test and tune the model. The skill of the medium range forecasts produced by the NMMB is comparable to that of other major medium range models. The computational efficiency of the global NMMB on parallel computers is good.

Climate Controls AM Fungal Distributions from Global to Local Scales

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Kivlin, S. N.; Hawkes, C.; Muscarella, R.; Treseder, K. K.; Kazenel, M.; Lynn, J.; Rudgers, J.

2016-12-01

Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi have key functions in terrestrial biogeochemical processes; thus, determining the relative importance of climate, edaphic factors, and plant community composition on their geographic distributions can improve predictions of their sensitivity to global change. Local adaptation by AM fungi to plant hosts, soil nutrients, and climate suggests that all of these factors may control fungal geographic distributions, but their relative importance is unknown. We created species distribution models for 142 AM fungal taxa at the global scale with data from GenBank. We compared climate variables (BioClim and soil moisture), edaphic variables (phosphorus, carbon, pH, and clay content), and plant variables using model selection on models with (1) all variables, (2) climatic variables only (including soil moisture) and (3) resource-related variables only (all other soil parameters and NPP) using the MaxEnt algorithm evaluated with ENMEval. We also evaluated whether drivers of AM fungal distributions were phylogenetically conserved. To test whether global correlates of AM fungal distributions were reflected at local scales, we then surveyed AM fungi in nine plant hosts along three elevation gradients in the Upper Gunnison Basin, Colorado, USA. At the global scale, the distributions of 55% of AM fungal taxa were affected by both climate and soil resources, whereas 16% were only affected by climate and 29% were only affected by soil resources. Even for AM fungi that were affected by both climate and resources, the effects of climatic variables nearly always outweighed those of resources. Soil moisture and isothermality were the main climatic and NPP and soil carbon the main resource related factors influencing AM fungal distributions. Distributions of closely related AM fungal taxa were similarly affected by climate, but not by resources. Local scale surveys of AM fungi across elevations confirmed that climate was a key driver of AM fungal

Global hydrobelts: improved reporting scale for water-related issues?

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Meybeck, M.; Kummu, M.; Dürr, H. H.

2012-08-01

Questions related to water such as its availability, water needs or stress, or management, are mapped at various resolutions at the global scale. They are reported at many scales, mostly along political or continental boundaries. As such, they ignore the fundamental heterogeneity of the hydroclimate and the natural boundaries of the river basins. Here, we describe the continental landmasses according to eight global-scale hydrobelts strictly limited by river basins, defined at a 30' (0.5°) resolution. The belts were defined and delineated, based primarily on the annual average temperature (T) and runoff (q), to maximise interbelt differences and minimise intrabelt variability. The belts were further divided into 29 hydroregions based on continental limits. This new global puzzle defines homogeneous and near-contiguous entities with similar hydrological and thermal regimes, glacial and postglacial basin histories, endorheism distribution and sensitivity to climate variations. The Mid-Latitude, Dry and Subtropical belts have northern and southern analogues and a general symmetry can be observed for T and q between them. The Boreal and Equatorial belts are unique. The hydroregions (median size 4.7 Mkm2) contrast strongly, with the average q ranging between 6 and 1393 mm yr-1 and the average T between -9.7 and +26.3 °C. Unlike the hydroclimate, the population density between the North and South belts and between the continents varies greatly, resulting in pronounced differences between the belts with analogues in both hemispheres. The population density ranges from 0.7 to 0.8 p km-2 for the North American Boreal and some Australian hydroregions to 280 p km-2 for the Asian part of the Northern Mid-Latitude belt. The combination of population densities and hydroclimate features results in very specific expressions of water-related characteristics in each of the 29 hydroregions. Our initial tests suggest that hydrobelt and hydroregion divisions are often more

Terrestrial nitrogen-carbon cycle interactions at the global scale.

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Zaehle, S

2013-07-05

Interactions between the terrestrial nitrogen (N) and carbon (C) cycles shape the response of ecosystems to global change. However, the global distribution of nitrogen availability and its importance in global biogeochemistry and biogeochemical interactions with the climate system remain uncertain. Based on projections of a terrestrial biosphere model scaling ecological understanding of nitrogen-carbon cycle interactions to global scales, anthropogenic nitrogen additions since 1860 are estimated to have enriched the terrestrial biosphere by 1.3 Pg N, supporting the sequestration of 11.2 Pg C. Over the same time period, CO2 fertilization has increased terrestrial carbon storage by 134.0 Pg C, increasing the terrestrial nitrogen stock by 1.2 Pg N. In 2001-2010, terrestrial ecosystems sequestered an estimated total of 27 Tg N yr(-1) (1.9 Pg C yr(-1)), of which 10 Tg N yr(-1) (0.2 Pg C yr(-1)) are due to anthropogenic nitrogen deposition. Nitrogen availability already limits terrestrial carbon sequestration in the boreal and temperate zone, and will constrain future carbon sequestration in response to CO2 fertilization (regionally by up to 70% compared with an estimate without considering nitrogen-carbon interactions). This reduced terrestrial carbon uptake will probably dominate the role of the terrestrial nitrogen cycle in the climate system, as it accelerates the accumulation of anthropogenic CO2 in the atmosphere. However, increases of N2O emissions owing to anthropogenic nitrogen and climate change (at a rate of approx. 0.5 Tg N yr(-1) per 1°C degree climate warming) will add an important long-term climate forcing.

The benefits of global scaling in multi-criteria decision analysis

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Jamie P. Monat

2009-10-01

Full Text Available When there are multiple competing objectives in a decision-making process, Multi-Attribute Choice scoring models are excellent tools, permitting the incorporation of both subjective and objective attributes. However, their accuracy depends upon the subjective techniques used to construct the attribute scales and their concomitant weights. Conventional techniques using local scales tend to overemphasize small differences in attribute measures, which may yield erroneous conclusions. The Range Sensitivity Principle (RSP is often invoked to adjust attribute weights when local scales are used. In practice, however, decision makers often do not follow the prescriptions of the Range Sensitivity Principle and under-adjust the weights, resulting in potentially poor decisions. Examples are discussed as is a proposed solution: the use of global scales instead of local scales.

On global H-mode scaling laws for JET

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kardaun, O.; Lackner, K.; Thomsen, K.; Christiansen, J.; Cordey, J.; Gottardi, N.; Keilhacker, M.; Smeulders, P.

1989-01-01

Investigation of the scaling of the energy confinement time τ E with various plasma parameters has since long been an interesting, albeit not uncontroversial topic in plasma physics. Various global scaling laws have been derived for ohmic as well as (NBI and/or RF heated) L-mode discharges. Due to the scarce availability of computerised, extensive and validated H-mode datasets, systematic statistical analysis of H-mode scaling behaviour has hitherto been limited. A common approach is to fit the available H-mode data by an L-mode scaling law (e.g., Kaye-Goldston, Rebut-Lallia) with one or two adjustable constant terms. In this contribution we will consider the alternative approach of fitting all free parameters of various simple scaling models to two recently compiled datasets consisting of about 140 ELM-free and 40 ELMy H-mode discharges, measured at JET in the period 1986-1988. From this period, approximately all known H-mode shots have been included that satisfy the following criteria: D-injected D + discharges with no RF heating, a sufficiently long (≥300 ms) and regular P NBI flat-top, and validated main diagnostics. (author) 13 refs., 1 tab

Water dependency and water exploitation at global scale as indicators of water security

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De Roo, A. P. J.; Beck, H.; Burek, P.; Bernard, B.

2015-12-01

A water dependency index has been developed indicating the dependency of water consumption from upstream sources of water, sometimes across (multiple) national border. This index is calculated at global scale using the 0.1 global LISFLOOD hydrological modelling system forced by WFDEI meteorological data for the timeframe 1979-2012. The global LISFLOOD model simulates the most important hydrological processes, as well as water abstraction and consumption from various sectors, and flood routing, at daily scale, with sub-timesteps for routing and subgrid parameterization related to elevation and landuse. The model contains also options for water allocation, to allow preferences of water use for particular sectors in water scarce periods. LISFLOOD is also used for the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS), the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS), continental scale climate change impact studies on floods and droughts. The water dependency indicator is calculated on a monthly basis, and various annual and multiannual indicators are derived from it. In this study, the indicator will be compared against water security areas known from other studies. Other indicators calculated are the Water Exploitation Index (WEI+), which is a commonly use water security indicator in Europe, and freshwater resources per capita indicators at regional, national and river basin scale. Several climate scnearios are run to indicate future trends in water security.

A revised method of presenting wavenumber-frequency power spectrum diagrams that reveals the asymmetric nature of tropical large-scale waves

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chao, Winston C. [NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, Mail Code 610.1, Greenbelt, MD (United States); Yang, Bo; Fu, Xiouhua [University of Hawaii at Manoa, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, HI (United States)

2009-11-15

The popular method of presenting wavenumber-frequency power spectrum diagrams for studying tropical large-scale waves in the literature is shown to give an incomplete presentation of these waves. The so-called ''convectively coupled Kelvin (mixed Rossby-gravity) waves'' are presented as existing only in the symmetric (anti-symmetric) component of the diagrams. This is obviously not consistent with the published composite/regression studies of ''convectively coupled Kelvin waves,'' which illustrate the asymmetric nature of these waves. The cause of this inconsistency is revealed in this note and a revised method of presenting the power spectrum diagrams is proposed. When this revised method is used, ''convectively coupled Kelvin waves'' do show anti-symmetric components, and ''convectively coupled mixed Rossby-gravity waves (also known as Yanai waves)'' do show a hint of symmetric components. These results bolster a published proposal that these waves should be called ''chimeric Kelvin waves,'' ''chimeric mixed Rossby-gravity waves,'' etc. This revised method of presenting power spectrum diagrams offers an additional means of comparing the GCM output with observations by calling attention to the capability of GCMs to correctly simulate the asymmetric characteristics of equatorial waves. (orig.)

The Scaling LInear Macroweather model (SLIM): using scaling to forecast global scale macroweather from months to decades

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Lovejoy, S.; del Rio Amador, L.; Hébert, R.

2015-03-01

At scales of ≈ 10 days (the lifetime of planetary scale structures), there is a drastic transition from high frequency weather to low frequency macroweather. This scale is close to the predictability limits of deterministic atmospheric models; so that in GCM macroweather forecasts, the weather is a high frequency noise. But neither the GCM noise nor the GCM climate is fully realistic. In this paper we show how simple stochastic models can be developped that use empirical data to force the statistics and climate to be realistic so that even a two parameter model can outperform GCM's for annual global temperature forecasts. The key is to exploit the scaling of the dynamics and the enormous stochastic memories that it implies. Since macroweather intermittency is low, we propose using the simplest model based on fractional Gaussian noise (fGn): the Scaling LInear Macroweather model (SLIM). SLIM is based on a stochastic ordinary differential equations, differing from usual linear stochastic models (such as the Linear Inverse Modelling, LIM) in that it is of fractional rather than integer order. Whereas LIM implicitly assumes there is no low frequency memory, SLIM has a huge memory that can be exploited. Although the basic mathematical forecast problem for fGn has been solved, we approach the problem in an original manner notably using the method of innovations to obtain simpler results on forecast skill and on the size of the effective system memory. A key to successful forecasts of natural macroweather variability is to first remove the low frequency anthropogenic component. A previous attempt to use fGn for forecasts had poor results because this was not done. We validate our theory using hindcasts of global and Northern Hemisphere temperatures at monthly and annual resolutions. Several nondimensional measures of forecast skill - with no adjustable parameters - show excellent agreement with hindcasts and these show some skill even at decadal scales. We also compare

GloFAS-Seasonal: Operational Seasonal Ensemble River Flow Forecasts at the Global Scale

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Emerton, Rebecca; Zsoter, Ervin; Smith, Paul; Salamon, Peter

2017-04-01

Seasonal hydrological forecasting has potential benefits for many sectors, including agriculture, water resources management and humanitarian aid. At present, no global scale seasonal hydrological forecasting system exists operationally; although smaller scale systems have begun to emerge around the globe over the past decade, a system providing consistent global scale seasonal forecasts would be of great benefit in regions where no other forecasting system exists, and to organisations operating at the global scale, such as disaster relief. We present here a new operational global ensemble seasonal hydrological forecast, currently under development at ECMWF as part of the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). The proposed system, which builds upon the current version of GloFAS, takes the long-range forecasts from the ECMWF System4 ensemble seasonal forecast system (which incorporates the HTESSEL land surface scheme) and uses this runoff as input to the Lisflood routing model, producing a seasonal river flow forecast out to 4 months lead time, for the global river network. The seasonal forecasts will be evaluated using the global river discharge reanalysis, and observations where available, to determine the potential value of the forecasts across the globe. The seasonal forecasts will be presented as a new layer in the GloFAS interface, which will provide a global map of river catchments, indicating whether the catchment-averaged discharge forecast is showing abnormally high or low flows during the 4-month lead time. Each catchment will display the corresponding forecast as an ensemble hydrograph of the weekly-averaged discharge forecast out to 4 months, with percentile thresholds shown for comparison with the discharge climatology. The forecast visualisation is based on a combination of the current medium-range GloFAS forecasts and the operational EFAS (European Flood Awareness System) seasonal outlook, and aims to effectively communicate the nature of a seasonal

Evidence of Boundary Reflection of Kelvin and First-Mode Rossby Waves from Topex/Poseidon Sea Level Data

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Boulanger, Jean-Philippe; Fu, Lee-Lueng

1996-01-01

The TOPEX/POSEIDON sea level data lead to new opportunities to investigate some theoretical mechanisms suggested to be involved in the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon in the tropical Pacific ocean. In particular, we are interested in studying the western boundary reflection, a process crucial for the delayed action oscillator theory, by using the TOPEX/POSEIDON data from November 1992 to May 1995. We first projected the sea level data onto Kelvin and first-mode Ross waves. Then we estimated the contribution of wind forcing to these waves by using a single baroclinic mode simple wave model forced by the ERS-1 wind data. Wave propagation was clearly observed with amplitudes well explained by the wind forcing in the ocean interior. Evidence of wave reflection was detected at both the western and eastern boundaries of the tropical Pacific ocean. At the eastern boundary, Kelvin waves were seen to reflect as first-mode Rossby waves during the entire period. The reflection efficiency (in terms of wave amplitude) of the South American coasts was estimated to be 80% of that of an infinite meridional wall. At the western boundary, reflection was observed in April-August 1993, in January-June 1994, and, later, in December 1994 to February 1995. Although the general roles of these reflection events in the variability observed in the equatorial Pacific ocean are not clear, the data suggest that the reflections in January-June 1994 have played a role in the onset of the warm conditions observed in late 1994 to early 1995. Indeed, during the January-June 1994 period, as strong downwelling first-mode Rossby waves reflected into downwelling Kelvin waves, easterly wind and cold sea surface temperature anomalies located near the date line weakened and eventually reversed in June-July 1994. The presence of the warm anomalies near the date line then favored convection and westerly wind anomalies that triggered strong downwelling Kelvin waves propagating throughout the basin

The (in)effectiveness of Global Land Policies on Large-Scale Land Acquisition

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verhoog, S.M.

2014-01-01

Due to current crises, large-scale land acquisition (LSLA) is becoming a topic of growing concern. Public data from the ‘Land Matrix Global Observatory’ project (Land Matrix 2014a) demonstrates that since 2000, 1,664 large-scale land transactions in low- and middle-income countries were reported,

From Global to Cloud Resolving Scale: Experiments with a Scale- and Aerosol-Aware Physics Package and Impact on Tracer Transport

Science.gov (United States)

Grell, G. A.; Freitas, S. R.; Olson, J.; Bela, M.

2017-12-01

We will start by providing a summary of the latest cumulus parameterization modeling efforts at NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) will be presented on both regional and global scales. The physics package includes a scale-aware parameterization of subgrid cloudiness feedback to radiation (coupled PBL, microphysics, radiation, shallow and congestus type convection), the stochastic Grell-Freitas (GF) scale- and aerosol-aware convective parameterization, and an aerosol aware microphysics package. GF is based on a stochastic approach originally implemented by Grell and Devenyi (2002) and described in more detail in Grell and Freitas (2014, ACP). It was expanded to include PDF's for vertical mass flux, as well as modifications to improve the diurnal cycle. This physics package will be used on different scales, spanning global to cloud resolving, to look at the impact on scalar transport and numerical weather prediction.

A high resolution global scale groundwater model

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de Graaf, Inge; Sutanudjaja, Edwin; van Beek, Rens; Bierkens, Marc

2014-05-01

As the world's largest accessible source of freshwater, groundwater plays a vital role in satisfying the basic needs of human society. It serves as a primary source of drinking water and supplies water for agricultural and industrial activities. During times of drought, groundwater storage provides a large natural buffer against water shortage and sustains flows to rivers and wetlands, supporting ecosystem habitats and biodiversity. Yet, the current generation of global scale hydrological models (GHMs) do not include a groundwater flow component, although it is a crucial part of the hydrological cycle. Thus, a realistic physical representation of the groundwater system that allows for the simulation of groundwater head dynamics and lateral flows is essential for GHMs that increasingly run at finer resolution. In this study we present a global groundwater model with a resolution of 5 arc-minutes (approximately 10 km at the equator) using MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh, 1988). With this global groundwater model we eventually intend to simulate the changes in the groundwater system over time that result from variations in recharge and abstraction. Aquifer schematization and properties of this groundwater model were developed from available global lithological maps and datasets (Dürr et al., 2005; Gleeson et al., 2010; Hartmann and Moosdorf, 2013), combined with our estimate of aquifer thickness for sedimentary basins. We forced the groundwater model with the output from the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB (van Beek et al., 2011), specifically the net groundwater recharge and average surface water levels derived from routed channel discharge. For the parameterization, we relied entirely on available global datasets and did not calibrate the model so that it can equally be expanded to data poor environments. Based on our sensitivity analysis, in which we run the model with various hydrogeological parameter settings, we observed that most variance in groundwater

Should Global Items on Student Rating Scales Be Used for Summative Decisions?

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Berk, Ronald A.

2013-01-01

One of the simplest indicators of teaching or course effectiveness is student ratings on one or more global items from the entire rating scale. That approach seems intuitively sound and easy to use. Global items have even been recommended by a few researchers to get a quick-read, at-a-glance summary for summative decisions about faculty. The…

Large-Scale and Global Hydrology. Chapter 92

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Rodell, Matthew; Beaudoing, Hiroko Kato; Koster, Randal; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Famiglietti, James S.; Lakshmi, Venkat

2016-01-01

Powered by the sun, water moves continuously between and through Earths oceanic, atmospheric, and terrestrial reservoirs. It enables life, shapes Earths surface, and responds to and influences climate change. Scientists measure various features of the water cycle using a combination of ground, airborne, and space-based observations, and seek to characterize it at multiple scales with the aid of numerical models. Over time our understanding of the water cycle and ability to quantify it have improved, owing to advances in observational capabilities, the extension of the data record, and increases in computing power and storage. Here we present some of the most recent estimates of global and continental ocean basin scale water cycle stocks and fluxes and provide examples of modern numerical modeling systems and reanalyses.Further, we discuss prospects for predicting water cycle variability at seasonal and longer scales, which is complicated by a changing climate and direct human impacts related to water management and agriculture. Changes to the water cycle will be among the most obvious and important facets of climate change, thus it is crucial that we continue to invest in our ability to monitor it.

Persistent and energetic bottom-trapped topographic Rossby waves observed in the southern South China Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Shu, Yeqiang; Xue, Huijie; Wang, Dongxiao; Chai, Fei; Xie, Qiang; Cai, Shuqun; Chen, Rongyu; Chen, Ju; Li, Jian; He, Yunkai

2016-01-01

Energetic fluctuations with periods of 9–14 days below a depth of 1400 m were observed in the southern South China Sea (SCS) from 5 years of direct measurements. We interpreted such fluctuations as topographic Rossby waves (TRWs) because they obey the dispersion relation. The TRWs persisted from May 24, 2009 to August 23, 2013, and their bottom current speed with a maximum of ~10 cm/s was one order of magnitude greater than the mean current and comparable to the tidal currents near the bottom. The bottom-trapped TRWs had an approximate trapping depth of 325 m and reference wavelength of ~82 km, which were likely excited by eddies above. Upper layer current speed that peaked approximately every 2 months could offer the energy sources for the persistent TRWs in the southern SCS. Energetic bottom-trapped TRWs may have a comparable role in deep circulation to tides in areas with complex topography. PMID:27075644

Current and future levels of mercury atmospheric pollution on a global scale

Science.gov (United States)

Pacyna, Jozef M.; Travnikov, Oleg; De Simone, Francesco; Hedgecock, Ian M.; Sundseth, Kyrre; Pacyna, Elisabeth G.; Steenhuisen, Frits; Pirrone, Nicola; Munthe, John; Kindbom, Karin

2016-10-01

An assessment of current and future emissions, air concentrations, and atmospheric deposition of mercury worldwide is presented on the basis of results obtained during the performance of the EU GMOS (Global Mercury Observation System) project. Emission estimates for mercury were prepared with the main goal of applying them in models to assess current (2013) and future (2035) air concentrations and atmospheric deposition of this contaminant. The combustion of fossil fuels (mainly coal) for energy and heat production in power plants and in industrial and residential boilers, as well as artisanal and small-scale gold mining, is one of the major anthropogenic sources of Hg emissions to the atmosphere at present. These sources account for about 37 and 25 % of the total anthropogenic Hg emissions globally, estimated to be about 2000 t. Emissions in Asian countries, particularly in China and India, dominate the total emissions of Hg. The current estimates of mercury emissions from natural processes (primary mercury emissions and re-emissions), including mercury depletion events, were estimated to be 5207 t year-1, which represents nearly 70 % of the global mercury emission budget. Oceans are the most important sources (36 %), followed by biomass burning (9 %). A comparison of the 2035 anthropogenic emissions estimated for three different scenarios with current anthropogenic emissions indicates a reduction of these emissions in 2035 up to 85 % for the best-case scenario. Two global chemical transport models (GLEMOS and ECHMERIT) have been used for the evaluation of future mercury pollution levels considering future emission scenarios. Projections of future changes in mercury deposition on a global scale simulated by these models for three anthropogenic emissions scenarios of 2035 indicate a decrease in up to 50 % deposition in the Northern Hemisphere and up to 35 % in Southern Hemisphere for the best-case scenario. The EU GMOS project has proved to be a very important

Current and future levels of mercury atmospheric pollution on a global scale

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. M. Pacyna

2016-10-01

Full Text Available An assessment of current and future emissions, air concentrations, and atmospheric deposition of mercury worldwide is presented on the basis of results obtained during the performance of the EU GMOS (Global Mercury Observation System project. Emission estimates for mercury were prepared with the main goal of applying them in models to assess current (2013 and future (2035 air concentrations and atmospheric deposition of this contaminant. The combustion of fossil fuels (mainly coal for energy and heat production in power plants and in industrial and residential boilers, as well as artisanal and small-scale gold mining, is one of the major anthropogenic sources of Hg emissions to the atmosphere at present. These sources account for about 37 and 25 % of the total anthropogenic Hg emissions globally, estimated to be about 2000 t. Emissions in Asian countries, particularly in China and India, dominate the total emissions of Hg. The current estimates of mercury emissions from natural processes (primary mercury emissions and re-emissions, including mercury depletion events, were estimated to be 5207 t year−1, which represents nearly 70 % of the global mercury emission budget. Oceans are the most important sources (36 %, followed by biomass burning (9 %. A comparison of the 2035 anthropogenic emissions estimated for three different scenarios with current anthropogenic emissions indicates a reduction of these emissions in 2035 up to 85 % for the best-case scenario. Two global chemical transport models (GLEMOS and ECHMERIT have been used for the evaluation of future mercury pollution levels considering future emission scenarios. Projections of future changes in mercury deposition on a global scale simulated by these models for three anthropogenic emissions scenarios of 2035 indicate a decrease in up to 50 % deposition in the Northern Hemisphere and up to 35 % in Southern Hemisphere for the best-case scenario. The EU GMOS project has

Global Stability of Complex-Valued Genetic Regulatory Networks with Delays on Time Scales

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Wang Yajing

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper, the global exponential stability of complex-valued genetic regulatory networks with delays is investigated. Besides presenting conditions guaranteeing the existence of a unique equilibrium pattern, its global exponential stability is discussed. Some numerical examples for different time scales.

Irrational Delay Revisited: Examining Five Procrastination Scales in a Global Sample.

Science.gov (United States)

Svartdal, Frode; Steel, Piers

2017-01-01

Scales attempting to measure procrastination focus on different facets of the phenomenon, yet they share a common understanding of procrastination as an unnecessary, unwanted, and disadvantageous delay. The present paper examines in a global sample ( N = 4,169) five different procrastination scales - Decisional Procrastination Scale (DPS), Irrational Procrastination Scale (IPS), Pure Procrastination Scale (PPS), Adult Inventory of Procrastination Scale (AIP), and General Procrastination Scale (GPS), focusing on factor structures and item functioning using Confirmatory Factor Analysis and Item Response Theory. The results indicated that The PPS (12 items selected from DPS, AIP, and GPS) measures different facets of procrastination even better than the three scales it is based on. An even shorter version of the PPS (5 items focusing on irrational delay), corresponds well to the nine-item IPS. Both scales demonstrate good psychometric properties and appear to be superior measures of core procrastination attributes than alternative procrastination scales.

Assessing flood risk at the global scale: model setup, results, and sensitivity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ward, Philip J; Jongman, Brenden; Weiland, Frederiek Sperna; Winsemius, Hessel C; Bouwman, Arno; Ligtvoet, Willem; Van Beek, Rens; Bierkens, Marc F P

2013-01-01

Globally, economic losses from flooding exceeded $19 billion in 2012, and are rising rapidly. Hence, there is an increasing need for global-scale flood risk assessments, also within the context of integrated global assessments. We have developed and validated a model cascade for producing global flood risk maps, based on numerous flood return-periods. Validation results indicate that the model simulates interannual fluctuations in flood impacts well. The cascade involves: hydrological and hydraulic modelling; extreme value statistics; inundation modelling; flood impact modelling; and estimating annual expected impacts. The initial results estimate global impacts for several indicators, for example annual expected exposed population (169 million); and annual expected exposed GDP ($1383 billion). These results are relatively insensitive to the extreme value distribution employed to estimate low frequency flood volumes. However, they are extremely sensitive to the assumed flood protection standard; developing a database of such standards should be a research priority. Also, results are sensitive to the use of two different climate forcing datasets. The impact model can easily accommodate new, user-defined, impact indicators. We envisage several applications, for example: identifying risk hotspots; calculating macro-scale risk for the insurance industry and large companies; and assessing potential benefits (and costs) of adaptation measures. (letter)

Constraining the global carbon budget from global to regional scales - The measurement challenge

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Francey, R.J.; Rayner, P.J.; Allison, C.E.

2002-01-01

The Global Carbon Cycle can be modelled by a Bayesian synthesis inversion technique, where measured atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and isotopic compositions are analysed by use of an atmospheric transport model and estimates of regional sources and sinks of atmospheric carbon. The uncertainty associated to carbon flux estimates even on a regional scale can be improved considerably using the inversion technique. In this approach, besides the necessary control on the precision of atmospheric transport models and on the constraints for surface fluxes, an important component is the calibration of atmospheric CO 2 concentration and isotope measurements. The recent improved situation in respect to data comparability is discussed using results of conducted interlaboratory comparison exercises and larger scale calibration programs are proposed for the future to further improve the comparability of analytical data. (author)

Act local, think global: how the Malawi experience of scaling up antiretroviral treatment has informed global policy

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Anthony D. Harries

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract The scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART in Malawi was based on a public health approach adapted to its resource-poor setting, with principles and practices borrowed from the successful tuberculosis control framework. From 2004 to 2015, the number of new patients started on ART increased from about 3000 to over 820,000. Despite being a small country, Malawi has made a significant contribution to the 15 million people globally on ART and has also contributed policy and service delivery innovations that have supported international guidelines and scale up in other countries. The first set of global guidelines for scaling up ART released by the World Health Organization (WHO in 2002 focused on providing clinical guidance. In Malawi, the ART guidelines adopted from the outset a more operational and programmatic approach with recommendations on health systems and services that were needed to deliver HIV treatment to affected populations. Seven years after the start of national scale-up, Malawi launched a new strategy offering all HIV-infected pregnant women lifelong ART regardless of the CD4-cell count, named Option B+. This strategy was subsequently incorporated into a WHO programmatic guide in 2012 and WHO ART guidelines in 2013, and has since then been adopted by the majority of countries worldwide. In conclusion, the Malawi experience of ART scale-up has become a blueprint for a public health response to HIV and has informed international efforts to end the AIDS epidemic by 2030.

Act local, think global: how the Malawi experience of scaling up antiretroviral treatment has informed global policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Harries, Anthony D; Ford, Nathan; Jahn, Andreas; Schouten, Erik J; Libamba, Edwin; Chimbwandira, Frank; Maher, Dermot

2016-09-06

The scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Malawi was based on a public health approach adapted to its resource-poor setting, with principles and practices borrowed from the successful tuberculosis control framework. From 2004 to 2015, the number of new patients started on ART increased from about 3000 to over 820,000. Despite being a small country, Malawi has made a significant contribution to the 15 million people globally on ART and has also contributed policy and service delivery innovations that have supported international guidelines and scale up in other countries. The first set of global guidelines for scaling up ART released by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2002 focused on providing clinical guidance. In Malawi, the ART guidelines adopted from the outset a more operational and programmatic approach with recommendations on health systems and services that were needed to deliver HIV treatment to affected populations. Seven years after the start of national scale-up, Malawi launched a new strategy offering all HIV-infected pregnant women lifelong ART regardless of the CD4-cell count, named Option B+. This strategy was subsequently incorporated into a WHO programmatic guide in 2012 and WHO ART guidelines in 2013, and has since then been adopted by the majority of countries worldwide. In conclusion, the Malawi experience of ART scale-up has become a blueprint for a public health response to HIV and has informed international efforts to end the AIDS epidemic by 2030.

ENSO impacts on flood risk at the global scale

Science.gov (United States)

Ward, Philip; Dettinger, Michael; Jongman, Brenden; Kummu, Matti; Winsemius, Hessel

2014-05-01

We present the impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on society and the economy, via relationships between ENSO and the hydrological cycle. We also discuss ways in which this knowledge can be used in disaster risk management and risk reduction. This contribution provides the most recent results of an ongoing 4-year collaborative research initiative to assess and map the impacts of large scale interannual climate variability on flood hazard and risk at the global scale. We have examined anomalies in flood risk between ENSO phases, whereby flood risk is expressed in terms of indicators such as: annual expected damage; annual expected affected population; annual expected affected Gross Domestic Product (GDP). We show that large anomalies in flood risk occur during El Niño or La Niña years in basins covering large parts of the Earth's surface. These anomalies reach statistical significance river basins covering almost two-thirds of the Earth's surface. Particularly strong anomalies exist in southern Africa, parts of western Africa, Australia, parts of Central Eurasia (especially for El Niño), the western USA (especially La Niña anomalies), and parts of South America. We relate these anomalies to possible causal relationships between ENSO and flood hazard, using both modelled and observed data on flood occurrence and extremity. The implications for flood risk management are many-fold. In those regions where disaster risk is strongly influenced by ENSO, the potential predictably of ENSO could be used to develop probabilistic flood risk projections with lead times up to several seasons. Such data could be used by the insurance industry in managing risk portfolios and by multinational companies for assessing the robustness of their supply chains to potential flood-related interruptions. Seasonal forecasts of ENSO influence of peak flows could also allow for improved flood early warning and regulation by dam operators, which could also reduce overall risks

"Annotated Lectures": Student-Instructor Interaction in Large-Scale Global Education

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roger Diehl

2009-10-01

Full Text Available We describe an "Annotated Lectures" system, which will be used in a global virtual teaching and student collaboration event on embodied intelligence presented by the University of Zurich. The lectures will be broadcasted via video-conference to lecture halls of different universities around the globe. Among other collaboration features, an "Annotated Lectures" system will be implemented in a 3D collaborative virtual environment and used by the participating students to make annotations to the video-recorded lectures, which will be sent to and answered by their supervisors, and forwarded to the lecturers in an aggregated way. The "Annotated Lectures" system aims to overcome the issues of limited studentinstructor interaction in large-scale education, and to foster an intercultural and multidisciplinary discourse among students who review the lectures in a group. After presenting the concept of the "Annotated Lectures" system, we discuss a prototype version including a description of the technical components and its expected benefit for large-scale global education.

Optimizing rice yields while minimizing yield-scaled global warming potential.

Science.gov (United States)

Pittelkow, Cameron M; Adviento-Borbe, Maria A; van Kessel, Chris; Hill, James E; Linquist, Bruce A

2014-05-01

To meet growing global food demand with limited land and reduced environmental impact, agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are increasingly evaluated with respect to crop productivity, i.e., on a yield-scaled as opposed to area basis. Here, we compiled available field data on CH4 and N2 O emissions from rice production systems to test the hypothesis that in response to fertilizer nitrogen (N) addition, yield-scaled global warming potential (GWP) will be minimized at N rates that maximize yields. Within each study, yield N surplus was calculated to estimate deficit or excess N application rates with respect to the optimal N rate (defined as the N rate at which maximum yield was achieved). Relationships between yield N surplus and GHG emissions were assessed using linear and nonlinear mixed-effects models. Results indicate that yields increased in response to increasing N surplus when moving from deficit to optimal N rates. At N rates contributing to a yield N surplus, N2 O and yield-scaled N2 O emissions increased exponentially. In contrast, CH4 emissions were not impacted by N inputs. Accordingly, yield-scaled CH4 emissions decreased with N addition. Overall, yield-scaled GWP was minimized at optimal N rates, decreasing by 21% compared to treatments without N addition. These results are unique compared to aerobic cropping systems in which N2 O emissions are the primary contributor to GWP, meaning yield-scaled GWP may not necessarily decrease for aerobic crops when yields are optimized by N fertilizer addition. Balancing gains in agricultural productivity with climate change concerns, this work supports the concept that high rice yields can be achieved with minimal yield-scaled GWP through optimal N application rates. Moreover, additional improvements in N use efficiency may further reduce yield-scaled GWP, thereby strengthening the economic and environmental sustainability of rice systems. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The sensitivity of soil respiration to soil temperature, moisture, and carbon supply at the global scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Hursh, Andrew; Ballantyne, Ashley; Cooper, Leila; Maneta, Marco; Kimball, John; Watts, Jennifer

2017-05-01

Soil respiration (Rs) is a major pathway by which fixed carbon in the biosphere is returned to the atmosphere, yet there are limits to our ability to predict respiration rates using environmental drivers at the global scale. While temperature, moisture, carbon supply, and other site characteristics are known to regulate soil respiration rates at plot scales within certain biomes, quantitative frameworks for evaluating the relative importance of these factors across different biomes and at the global scale require tests of the relationships between field estimates and global climatic data. This study evaluates the factors driving Rs at the global scale by linking global datasets of soil moisture, soil temperature, primary productivity, and soil carbon estimates with observations of annual Rs from the Global Soil Respiration Database (SRDB). We find that calibrating models with parabolic soil moisture functions can improve predictive power over similar models with asymptotic functions of mean annual precipitation. Soil temperature is comparable with previously reported air temperature observations used in predicting Rs and is the dominant driver of Rs in global models; however, within certain biomes soil moisture and soil carbon emerge as dominant predictors of Rs. We identify regions where typical temperature-driven responses are further mediated by soil moisture, precipitation, and carbon supply and regions in which environmental controls on high Rs values are difficult to ascertain due to limited field data. Because soil moisture integrates temperature and precipitation dynamics, it can more directly constrain the heterotrophic component of Rs, but global-scale models tend to smooth its spatial heterogeneity by aggregating factors that increase moisture variability within and across biomes. We compare statistical and mechanistic models that provide independent estimates of global Rs ranging from 83 to 108 Pg yr -1 , but also highlight regions of uncertainty

The ScaLIng Macroweather Model (SLIMM): using scaling to forecast global-scale macroweather from months to decades

Science.gov (United States)

Lovejoy, S.; del Rio Amador, L.; Hébert, R.

2015-09-01

On scales of ≈ 10 days (the lifetime of planetary-scale structures), there is a drastic transition from high-frequency weather to low-frequency macroweather. This scale is close to the predictability limits of deterministic atmospheric models; thus, in GCM (general circulation model) macroweather forecasts, the weather is a high-frequency noise. However, neither the GCM noise nor the GCM climate is fully realistic. In this paper we show how simple stochastic models can be developed that use empirical data to force the statistics and climate to be realistic so that even a two-parameter model can perform as well as GCMs for annual global temperature forecasts. The key is to exploit the scaling of the dynamics and the large stochastic memories that we quantify. Since macroweather temporal (but not spatial) intermittency is low, we propose using the simplest model based on fractional Gaussian noise (fGn): the ScaLIng Macroweather Model (SLIMM). SLIMM is based on a stochastic ordinary differential equation, differing from usual linear stochastic models (such as the linear inverse modelling - LIM) in that it is of fractional rather than integer order. Whereas LIM implicitly assumes that there is no low-frequency memory, SLIMM has a huge memory that can be exploited. Although the basic mathematical forecast problem for fGn has been solved, we approach the problem in an original manner, notably using the method of innovations to obtain simpler results on forecast skill and on the size of the effective system memory. A key to successful stochastic forecasts of natural macroweather variability is to first remove the low-frequency anthropogenic component. A previous attempt to use fGn for forecasts had disappointing results because this was not done. We validate our theory using hindcasts of global and Northern Hemisphere temperatures at monthly and annual resolutions. Several nondimensional measures of forecast skill - with no adjustable parameters - show excellent

Primary sources of selected POPs: regional and global scale emission inventories

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Breivik, Knut; Alcock, Ruth; Li Yifan; Bailey, Robert E.; Fiedler, Heidelore; Pacyna, Jozef M

2004-03-01

During the last decade, a number of studies have been devoted to the sources and emissions of Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) at regional and global scales. While significant improvements in knowledge have been achieved for some pesticides, the quantitative understanding of the emission processes and emission patterns for 'non-pesticide' POPs are still considered limited. The key issues remaining for the non-pesticide POPs are in part determined by their general source classification. For industrial chemicals, such as the polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), there is considerable uncertainty with respect to the relative importance of atmospheric emissions from various source categories. For PCBs, temperature is discussed as a potential key factor influencing atmospheric emission levels and patterns. When it comes to the unintentional by-products of combustion and industrial processes (PCDD/Fs), there is still a large uncertainty with respect to the relative contribution of emissions from unregulated sources such as backyard barrel burning that requires further consideration and characterisation. For hexachlorobenzene (HCB), the relative importance of primary and secondary atmospheric emissions in controlling current atmospheric concentrations remains one of the key uncertainties. While these and other issues may remain unresolved, knowledge concerning the emissions of POPs is a prerequisite for any attempt to understand and predict the distribution and fate of these chemicals on a regional and global scale as well as to efficiently minimise future environmental burdens. - Knowledge of primary emissions is a prerequisite for understanding and predicting POPs on a regional/global scale.

Primary sources of selected POPs: regional and global scale emission inventories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Breivik, Knut; Alcock, Ruth; Li Yifan; Bailey, Robert E.; Fiedler, Heidelore; Pacyna, Jozef M.

2004-01-01

During the last decade, a number of studies have been devoted to the sources and emissions of Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) at regional and global scales. While significant improvements in knowledge have been achieved for some pesticides, the quantitative understanding of the emission processes and emission patterns for 'non-pesticide' POPs are still considered limited. The key issues remaining for the non-pesticide POPs are in part determined by their general source classification. For industrial chemicals, such as the polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), there is considerable uncertainty with respect to the relative importance of atmospheric emissions from various source categories. For PCBs, temperature is discussed as a potential key factor influencing atmospheric emission levels and patterns. When it comes to the unintentional by-products of combustion and industrial processes (PCDD/Fs), there is still a large uncertainty with respect to the relative contribution of emissions from unregulated sources such as backyard barrel burning that requires further consideration and characterisation. For hexachlorobenzene (HCB), the relative importance of primary and secondary atmospheric emissions in controlling current atmospheric concentrations remains one of the key uncertainties. While these and other issues may remain unresolved, knowledge concerning the emissions of POPs is a prerequisite for any attempt to understand and predict the distribution and fate of these chemicals on a regional and global scale as well as to efficiently minimise future environmental burdens. - Knowledge of primary emissions is a prerequisite for understanding and predicting POPs on a regional/global scale

Teach for All: Storytelling "Shared Solutions" and Scaling Global Reform

Science.gov (United States)

Ahmann, Chloe

2015-01-01

"Teach For All" is a global network of state-based organizations that translate "Teach For America's" market model of school reform into moral projects of nation-building abroad. Referring to this challenge as one of "scaling" the organization, its leaders elaborate a theory of change that hinges on replicability: in…

NASA/MSFC FY91 Global Scale Atmospheric Processes Research Program Review

Science.gov (United States)

Leslie, Fred W. (Editor)

1991-01-01

The reports presented at the annual Marshall Research Review of Earth Science and Applications are compiled. The following subject areas are covered: understanding of atmospheric processes in a variety of spatial and temporal scales; measurements of geophysical parameters; measurements on a global scale from space; the Mission to Planet Earth Program (comprised of and Earth Observation System and the scientific strategy to analyze these data); and satellite data analysis and fundamental studies of atmospheric dynamics.

Global scaling analysis for the pebble bed advanced high temperature reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blandford, E.D.; Peterson, P.F.

2009-01-01

Scaled Integral Effects Test (IET) facilities play a critical role in the design certification process of innovative reactor designs. Best-estimate system analysis codes, which minimize deliberate conservatism, require confirmatory data during the validation process to ensure an acceptable level of accuracy as defined by the regulator. The modular Pebble Bed Advanced High Temperature Reactor (PB-AHTR), with a nominal power output of 900 MWth, is the most recent UC Berkeley design for a liquid fluoride salt cooled, solid fuel reactor. The PB-AHTR takes advantage of technologies developed for gas-cooled high temperature thermal and fast reactors, sodium fast reactors, and molten salt reactors. In this paper, non-dimensional scaling groups and similarity criteria are presented at the global system level for a loss of forced circulation transient, where single-phase natural circulation is the primary mechanism for decay heat removal following a primary pump trip. Due to very large margin to fuel damage temperatures, the peak metal temperature of primary-loop components was identified as the key safety parameter of interest. Fractional Scaling Analysis (FSA) methods were used to quantify the intensity of each transfer process during the transient and subsequently rank them by their relative importance while identifying key sources of distortion between the prototype and model. The results show that the development of a scaling hierarchy at the global system level informs the bottom-up scaling analysis. (author)

Sub-seasonal predictability of water scarcity at global and local scale

Science.gov (United States)

Wanders, N.; Wada, Y.; Wood, E. F.

2016-12-01

Forecasting the water demand and availability for agriculture and energy production has been neglected in previous research, partly due to the fact that most large-scale hydrological models lack the skill to forecast human water demands at sub-seasonal time scale. We study the potential of a sub-seasonal water scarcity forecasting system for improved water management decision making and improved estimates of water demand and availability. We have generated 32 years of global sub-seasonal multi-model water availability, demand and scarcity forecasts. The quality of the forecasts is compared to a reference forecast derived from resampling historic weather observations. The newly developed system has been evaluated for both the global scale and in a real-time local application in the Sacramento valley for the Trinity, Shasta and Oroville reservoirs, where the water demand for agriculture and hydropower is high. On the global scale we find that the reference forecast shows high initial forecast skill (up to 8 months) for water scarcity in the eastern US, Central Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Adding dynamical sub-seasonal forecasts results in a clear improvement for most regions in the world, increasing the forecasts' lead time by 2 or more months on average. The strongest improvements are found in the US, Brazil, Central Asia and Australia. For the Sacramento valley we can accurately predict anomalies in the reservoir inflow, hydropower potential and the downstream irrigation water demand 6 months in advance. This allow us to forecast potential water scarcity in the Sacramento valley and adjust the reservoir management to prevent deficits in energy or irrigation water availability. The newly developed forecast system shows that it is possible to reduce the vulnerability to upcoming water scarcity events and allows optimization of the distribution of the available water between the agricultural and energy sector half a year in advance.

Global-scale assessment and combination of SMAP with ASCAT (Active) and AMSR2 (Passive) soil moisture products

Science.gov (United States)

Global-scale surface soil moisture (SSM) products retrieved from active and passive microwave remote sensing provide an effective method for monitoring near-real-time SSM content with nearly daily temporal resolution. In the present study, we first inter-compared global-scale error patterns and comb...

Global scaling properties of the spectrum for the Fibonacci chains

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, W. M.

1987-02-01

By means of the approximate renormalization approach of Niu and Nori [Phys. Rev. Lett. 57, 2057 (1986)] the widths of subband segments in the spectrum and the occupation probabilities on subbands are obtained to the lowest order for the two-value Fibonacci chains. The global scaling properties of the spectrum are then analytically calculated.

Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Neelin, J David; Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N; Bernstein, Diana N

2017-02-07

Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff.

Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale

Science.gov (United States)

Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N.; Bernstein, Diana N.

2017-01-01

Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff. PMID:28115693

MODELING THE SUN’S SMALL-SCALE GLOBAL PHOTOSPHERIC MAGNETIC FIELD

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Meyer, K. A. [Division of Computing and Mathematics, Abertay University, Kydd Building, Dundee, Bell Street, DD1 1HG, Scotland (United Kingdom); Mackay, D. H., E-mail: k.meyer@abertay.ac.uk [School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of St Andrews, North Haugh, St Andrews, KY16 9SS, Scotland (United Kingdom)

2016-10-20

We present a new model for the Sun’s global photospheric magnetic field during a deep minimum of activity, in which no active regions emerge. The emergence and subsequent evolution of small-scale magnetic features across the full solar surface is simulated, subject to the influence of a global supergranular flow pattern. Visually, the resulting simulated magnetograms reproduce the typical structure and scale observed in quiet Sun magnetograms. Quantitatively, the simulation quickly reaches a steady state, resulting in a mean field and flux distribution that are in good agreement with those determined from observations. A potential coronal magnetic field is extrapolated from the simulated full Sun magnetograms to consider the implications of such a quiet photospheric magnetic field on the corona and inner heliosphere. The bulk of the coronal magnetic field closes very low down, in short connections between small-scale features in the simulated magnetic network. Just 0.1% of the photospheric magnetic flux is found to be open at 2.5 R {sub ⊙}, around 10–100 times less than that determined for typical Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager synoptic map observations. If such conditions were to exist on the Sun, this would lead to a significantly weaker interplanetary magnetic field than is currently observed, and hence a much higher cosmic ray flux at Earth.

Building capacity in biodiversity monitoring at the global scale

Science.gov (United States)

Schmeller, Dirk S.; Bohm, Monika; Arvanitidis, Christos; Barber-Meyer, Shannon; Brummitt, Neil; Chandler, Mark; Chatzinikolaou, Eva; Costello, Mark J.; Ding, Hui; García-Moreno, Jaime; Gill, Michael J.; Haase, Peter; Jones, Miranda; Juillard, Romain; Magnusson, William E.; Martin, Corinne S.; McGeoch, Melodie A.; Mihoub, Jean-Baptiste; Pettorelli, Nathalie; Proença, Vânia; Peng, Cui; Regan, Eugenie; Schmiedel, Ute; Simsika, John P.; Weatherdon, Lauren; Waterman, Carly; Xu, Haigen; Belnap, Jayne

2017-01-01

Human-driven global change is causing ongoing declines in biodiversity worldwide. In order to address these declines, decision-makers need accurate assessments of the status of and pressures on biodiversity. However, these are heavily constrained by incomplete and uneven spatial, temporal and taxonomic coverage. For instance, data from regions such as Europe and North America are currently used overwhelmingly for large-scale biodiversity assessments due to lesser availability of suitable data from other, more biodiversity-rich, regions. These data-poor regions are often those experiencing the strongest threats to biodiversity, however. There is therefore an urgent need to fill the existing gaps in global biodiversity monitoring. Here, we review current knowledge on best practice in capacity building for biodiversity monitoring and provide an overview of existing means to improve biodiversity data collection considering the different types of biodiversity monitoring data. Our review comprises insights from work in Africa, South America, Polar Regions and Europe; in government-funded, volunteer and citizen-based monitoring in terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems. The key steps to effectively building capacity in biodiversity monitoring are: identifying monitoring questions and aims; identifying the key components, functions, and processes to monitor; identifying the most suitable monitoring methods for these elements, carrying out monitoring activities; managing the resultant data; and interpreting monitoring data. Additionally, biodiversity monitoring should use multiple approaches including extensive and intensive monitoring through volunteers and professional scientists but also harnessing new technologies. Finally, we call on the scientific community to share biodiversity monitoring data, knowledge and tools to ensure the accessibility, interoperability, and reporting of biodiversity data at a global scale.

NASA/MSFC FY88 Global Scale Atmospheric Processes Research Program Review

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Greg S. (Editor); Leslie, Fred W. (Editor); Arnold, J. E. (Editor)

1989-01-01

Interest in environmental issues and the magnitude of the environmental changes continues. One way to gain more understanding of the atmosphere is to make measurements on a global scale from space. The Earth Observation System is a series of new sensors to measure globally atmospheric parameters. Analysis of satellite data by developing algorithms to interpret the radiance information improves the understanding and also defines requirements for these sensors. One measure of knowledge of the atmosphere lies in the ability to predict its behavior. Use of numerical and experimental models provides a better understanding of these processes. These efforts are described in the context of satellite data analysis and fundamental studies of atmospheric dynamics which examine selected processes important to the global circulation.

Variations in tropical convection as an amplifier of global climate change at the millennial scale

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ivanochkoa, T.S.; Ganeshram, R.S.; Brummer, G.J.A.; Ganssen, G.M.; Jung, S.J.A.; Moreton, S.G.; Kroon, D.

2005-01-01

The global expression of millennial-scale climatic change during the glacial period and the persistence of this signal in Holocene records point to atmospheric teleconnections as the mechanism propagating rapid climate variations. We suggest rearrangements in the tropical convection system globally

Significant uncertainty in global scale hydrological modeling from precipitation data errors

Science.gov (United States)

Sperna Weiland, Frederiek C.; Vrugt, Jasper A.; van Beek, Rens (L.) P. H.; Weerts, Albrecht H.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

2015-10-01

In the past decades significant progress has been made in the fitting of hydrologic models to data. Most of this work has focused on simple, CPU-efficient, lumped hydrologic models using discharge, water table depth, soil moisture, or tracer data from relatively small river basins. In this paper, we focus on large-scale hydrologic modeling and analyze the effect of parameter and rainfall data uncertainty on simulated discharge dynamics with the global hydrologic model PCR-GLOBWB. We use three rainfall data products; the CFSR reanalysis, the ERA-Interim reanalysis, and a combined ERA-40 reanalysis and CRU dataset. Parameter uncertainty is derived from Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) using monthly discharge data from five of the largest river systems in the world. Our results demonstrate that the default parameterization of PCR-GLOBWB, derived from global datasets, can be improved by calibrating the model against monthly discharge observations. Yet, it is difficult to find a single parameterization of PCR-GLOBWB that works well for all of the five river basins considered herein and shows consistent performance during both the calibration and evaluation period. Still there may be possibilities for regionalization based on catchment similarities. Our simulations illustrate that parameter uncertainty constitutes only a minor part of predictive uncertainty. Thus, the apparent dichotomy between simulations of global-scale hydrologic behavior and actual data cannot be resolved by simply increasing the model complexity of PCR-GLOBWB and resolving sub-grid processes. Instead, it would be more productive to improve the characterization of global rainfall amounts at spatial resolutions of 0.5° and smaller.

The improved Clinical Global Impression Scale (iCGI: development and validation in depression

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kadouri Alane

2007-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The Clinical Global Impression scale (CGI is frequently used in medical care and clinical research because of its face validity and practicability. This study proposes to improve the reliability of the Clinical Global Impression (CGI scale in depressive disorders by the use of a semi-standardized interview, a new response format, and a Delphi procedure. Methods Thirty patients hospitalised for a major depressive episode were filmed at T1 (first week in hospital and at T2 (2 weeks later during a 5' specific interview. The Hamilton Depressive Rating Scale and the Symptom Check List were also rated. Eleven psychiatrists rated these videos using either the usual CGI response format or an improved response format, with or without a Delphi procedure. Results The new response format slightly improved (but not significantly the interrater agreement, the Delphi procedure did not. The best results were obtained when ratings by 4 independent raters were averaged. In this situation, intraclass correlation coefficients were about 0.9. Conclusion The Clinical Global Impression is a useful approach in psychiatry since it apprehends patients in their entirety. This study shows that it is possible to quantify such impressions with a high level of interrater agreement.

Orographic precipitation at global and regional scales: Observational uncertainty and evaluation of 25-km global model simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Schiemann, Reinhard; Roberts, Charles J.; Bush, Stephanie; Demory, Marie-Estelle; Strachan, Jane; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Mizielinski, Matthew S.; Roberts, Malcolm J.

2015-04-01

Precipitation over land exhibits a high degree of variability due to the complex interaction of the precipitation generating atmospheric processes with coastlines, the heterogeneous land surface, and orography. Global general circulation models (GCMs) have traditionally had very limited ability to capture this variability on the mesoscale (here ~50-500 km) due to their low resolution. This has changed with recent investments in resolution and ensembles of multidecadal climate simulations of atmospheric GCMs (AGCMs) with ~25 km grid spacing are becoming increasingly available. Here, we evaluate the mesoscale precipitation distribution in one such set of simulations obtained in the UPSCALE (UK on PrACE - weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk) modelling campaign with the HadGEM-GA3 AGCM. Increased model resolution also poses new challenges to the observational datasets used to evaluate models. Global gridded data products such as those provided by the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) are invaluable for assessing large-scale features of the precipitation distribution but may not sufficiently resolve mesoscale structures. In the absence of independent estimates, the intercomparison of different observational datasets may be the only way to get some insight into the uncertainties associated with these observations. Here, we focus on mid-latitude continental regions where observations based on higher-density gauge networks are available in addition to the global data sets: Europe/the Alps, South and East Asia, and the continental US. The ability of GCMs to represent mesoscale variability is of interest in its own right, as climate information on this scale is required by impact studies. An additional motivation for the research proposed here arises from continuing efforts to quantify the components of the global radiation budget and water cycle. Recent estimates based on radiation measurements suggest that the global mean

Global scale climate-crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lobell, David B; Field, Christopher B

2007-01-01

Changes in the global production of major crops are important drivers of food prices, food security and land use decisions. Average global yields for these commodities are determined by the performance of crops in millions of fields distributed across a range of management, soil and climate regimes. Despite the complexity of global food supply, here we show that simple measures of growing season temperatures and precipitation-spatial averages based on the locations of each crop-explain ∼30% or more of year-to-year variations in global average yields for the world's six most widely grown crops. For wheat, maize and barley, there is a clearly negative response of global yields to increased temperatures. Based on these sensitivities and observed climate trends, we estimate that warming since 1981 has resulted in annual combined losses of these three crops representing roughly 40 Mt or $5 billion per year, as of 2002. While these impacts are small relative to the technological yield gains over the same period, the results demonstrate already occurring negative impacts of climate trends on crop yields at the global scale

Global Wildfire Forecasts Using Large Scale Climate Indices

Science.gov (United States)

Shen, Huizhong; Tao, Shu

2016-04-01

Using weather readings, fire early warning can provided forecast 4-6 hour in advance to minimize fire loss. The benefit would be dramatically enhanced if relatively accurate long-term projection can be also provided. Here we present a novel method for predicting global fire season severity (FSS) at least three months in advance using multiple large-scale climate indices (CIs). The predictive ability is proven effective for various geographic locations and resolution. Globally, as well as in most continents, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant driving force controlling interannual FSS variability, whereas other CIs also play indispensable roles. We found that a moderate El Niño event is responsible for 465 (272-658 as interquartile range) Tg carbon release and an annual increase of 29,500 (24,500-34,800) deaths from inhalation exposure to air pollutants. Southeast Asia accounts for half of the deaths. Both intercorrelation and interaction of WPs and CIs are revealed, suggesting possible climate-induced modification of fire responses to weather conditions. Our models can benefit fire management in response to climate change.

Causes and consequences of mid–21st-century rapid ice loss events simulated by the Rossby centre regional atmosphere-ocean model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jean-Philippe Paquin

2013-08-01

Full Text Available Recent observations and modelling studies suggest that the Arctic climate is undergoing important transition. One manifestation of this change is seen in the rapid sea-ice cover decrease as experienced in 2007 and 2012. Although most numerical climate models cannot adequately reproduce the recent changes, some models produce similar Rapid Ice Loss Events (RILEs during the mid–21st-century. This study presents an analysis of four specific RILEs clustered around 2040 in three transient climate projections performed with the coupled Rossby Centre regional Atmosphere-Ocean model (RCAO. The analysis shows that long-term thinning causes increased vulnerability of the Arctic Ocean sea-ice cover. In the Atlantic sector, pre-conditioning (thinning of sea ice combined with anomalous atmospheric and oceanic heat transport causes large ice loss, while in the Pacific sector of the Arctic Ocean sea-ice albedo feedback appears important, particularly along the retreating sea-ice margin. Although maximum sea-ice loss occurs in the autumn, response in surface air temperature occurs in early winter, caused by strong increase in ocean-atmosphere surface energy fluxes, mainly the turbulent fluxes. Synchronicity of the events around 2040 in the projections is caused by a strong large-scale atmospheric circulation anomaly at the Atlantic lateral boundary of the regional model. The limited impact on land is caused by vertical propagation of the surface heat anomaly rather than horizontal, caused by the absence of low-level temperature inversion over the ocean.

Evaluating the Long-term Water Cycle Trends at a Global-scale using Satellite and Assimilation Datasets

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, H.; Lakshmi, V.

2017-12-01

Global-scale soil moisture and rainfall products retrieved from remotely sensed and assimilation datasets provide an effective way to monitor near surface soil moisture content and precipitation with sub-daily temporal resolution. In the present study, we employed the concept of the stored precipitation fraction Fp(f) in order to examine the long-term water cycle trends at a global-scale. The analysis was done for Fp(f) trends with the various geophysical aspects such as climate zone, land use classifications, amount of vegetation, and soil properties. Furthermore, we compared a global-scale Fp(f) using different microwave-based satellite soil moisture datasets. The Fp(f) is calculated by utilized surface soil moisture dataset from Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity, Advanced Scatterometer, Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2, and precipitation information from Global Precipitation Measurement Mission and Global Land Data Assimilation System. Different results from microwave-based soil moisture dataset showed discordant results particularly over arid and highly vegetated regions. The results of this study provide us new insights of the long-term water cycle trends over different land surface areas. Thereby also highlighting the advantages of the recently available GPM and SMAP datasets for the uses in various hydrometeorological applications.

Interannual Variation in Phytoplankton Primary Production at a Global Scale

Science.gov (United States)

Rousseaux, Cecile Severine; Gregg, Watson W.

2013-01-01

We used the NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM) combined with remote sensing data via assimilation to evaluate the contribution of four phytoplankton groups to the total primary production. First, we assessed the contribution of each phytoplankton groups to the total primary production at a global scale for the period 1998-2011. Globally, diatoms contributed the most to the total phytoplankton production ((is)approximately 50%, the equivalent of 20 PgC·y1). Coccolithophores and chlorophytes each contributed approximately 20% ((is) approximately 7 PgC·y1) of the total primary production and cyanobacteria represented about 10% ((is) approximately 4 PgC·y1) of the total primary production. Primary production by diatoms was highest in the high latitudes ((is) greater than 40 deg) and in major upwelling systems (Equatorial Pacific and Benguela system). We then assessed interannual variability of this group-specific primary production over the period 1998-2011. Globally the annual relative contribution of each phytoplankton groups to the total primary production varied by maximum 4% (1-2 PgC·y1). We assessed the effects of climate variability on group-specific primary production using global (i.e., Multivariate El Niño Index, MEI) and "regional" climate indices (e.g., Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)). Most interannual variability occurred in the Equatorial Pacific and was associated with climate variability as indicated by significant correlation (p (is) less than 0.05) between the MEI and the group-specific primary production from all groups except coccolithophores. In the Atlantic, climate variability as indicated by NAO was significantly correlated to the primary production of 2 out of the 4 groups in the North Central Atlantic (diatoms/cyanobacteria) and in the North Atlantic (chlorophytes and coccolithophores). We found that climate variability as indicated by SAM had only a limited effect

Global Scale Remote Sensing Monitoring of Endorheic Lake Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Scuderi, L. A.

2010-12-01

Semi-arid regions of the world contain thousands of endorheic lakes in large shallow basins. Due to their generally remote locations few are continuously monitored. Documentation of recent variability is essential to assessing how endorheic lakes respond to short-term meteorological conditions and longer-term decadal-scale climatic variability and is critical in determining future disturbance of hydrological regimes with respect to predicted warming and drying in the mid-latitudes. Short- and long-term departures from climatic averages, rapid environmental shifts and increased population pressures may result in significant fluctuations in the hydrologic budgets of these lakes and adversely impact endorheic lake/basin ecosystems. Information on flooding variability is also critical in estimating changes in P/E balances and on the production of exposed and easily deflated surfaces that may impact dust loading locally and regionally. In order to provide information on how these lakes respond we need to understand how entire systems respond hydrologically to different climatic inputs. This requires monitoring and analysis of regional to continental-scale systems. To date, this level of monitoring has not been achieved in an operational system. In order to assess the possibility of creating a global-scale lake inundation database we analyzed two contrasting lake systems in western North America (Mexico and New Mexico, USA) and China (Inner Mongolia). We asked two major questions: 1) is it possible to quickly and accurately quantify current lake inundation events in near real time using remote sensing? and, 2) is it possible to differentiate variable meteorological sources and resultant lake inundation responses using this type of database? With respect to these results we outline an automated lake monitoring approach using MODIS data and real-time processing systems that may provide future global monitoring capabilities.

Large-scale dynamics associated with clustering of extratropical cyclones affecting Western Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Pinto, Joaquim G.; Gómara, Iñigo; Masato, Giacomo; Dacre, Helen F.; Woollings, Tim; Caballero, Rodrigo

2015-04-01

Some recent winters in Western Europe have been characterized by the occurrence of multiple extratropical cyclones following a similar path. The occurrence of such cyclone clusters leads to large socio-economic impacts due to damaging winds, storm surges, and floods. Recent studies have statistically characterized the clustering of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and Europe and hypothesized potential physical mechanisms responsible for their formation. Here we analyze 4 months characterized by multiple cyclones over Western Europe (February 1990, January 1993, December 1999, and January 2007). The evolution of the eddy driven jet stream, Rossby wave-breaking, and upstream/downstream cyclone development are investigated to infer the role of the large-scale flow and to determine if clustered cyclones are related to each other. Results suggest that optimal conditions for the occurrence of cyclone clusters are provided by a recurrent extension of an intensified eddy driven jet toward Western Europe lasting at least 1 week. Multiple Rossby wave-breaking occurrences on both the poleward and equatorward flanks of the jet contribute to the development of these anomalous large-scale conditions. The analysis of the daily weather charts reveals that upstream cyclone development (secondary cyclogenesis, where new cyclones are generated on the trailing fronts of mature cyclones) is strongly related to cyclone clustering, with multiple cyclones developing on a single jet streak. The present analysis permits a deeper understanding of the physical reasons leading to the occurrence of cyclone families over the North Atlantic, enabling a better estimation of the associated cumulative risk over Europe.

GEM-AQ/EC, an on-line global multi-scale chemical weather modelling system: model development and evaluation of global aerosol climatology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. L. Gong

2012-09-01

Full Text Available A global air quality modeling system GEM-AQ/EC was developed by implementing tropospheric chemistry and aerosol processes on-line into the Global Environmental Multiscale weather prediction model – GEM. Due to the multi-scale features of the GEM, the integrated model, GEM-AQ/EC, is able to investigate chemical weather at scales from global to urban domains. The current chemical mechanism is comprised of 50 gas-phase species, 116 chemical and 19 photolysis reactions, and is complemented by a sectional aerosol module CAM (The Canadian Aerosol Module with 5 aerosols types: sulphate, black carbon, organic carbon, sea-salt and soil dust. Monthly emission inventories of black carbon and organic carbon from boreal and temperate vegetation fires were assembled using the most reliable areas burned datasets by countries, from statistical databases and derived from remote sensing products of 1995–2004. The model was run for ten years from from 1995–2004 with re-analyzed meteorology on a global uniform 1° × 1° horizontal resolution domain and 28 hybrid levels extending up to 10 hPa. The simulating results were compared with various observations including surface network around the globe and satellite data. Regional features of global aerosols are reasonably captured including emission, surface concentrations and aerosol optical depth. For various types of aerosols, satisfactory correlations were achieved between modeled and observed with some degree of systematic bias possibly due to large uncertainties in the emissions used in this study. A global distribution of natural aerosol contributions to the total aerosols is obtained and compared with observations.

Estimate of the global-scale joule heating rates in the thermosphere due to time mean currents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roble, R.G.; Matsushita, S.

1975-01-01

An estimate of the global-scale joule heating rates in the thermosphere is made based on derived global equivalent overhead electric current systems in the dynamo region during geomagnetically quiet and disturbed periods. The equivalent total electric field distribution is calculated from Ohm's law. The global-scale joule heating rates are calculated for various monthly average periods in 1965. The calculated joule heating rates maximize at high latitudes in the early evening and postmidnight sectors. During geomagnetically quiet times the daytime joule heating rates are considerably lower than heating by solar EUV radiation. However, during geomagnetically disturbed periods the estimated joule heating rates increase by an order of magnitude and can locally exceed the solar EUV heating rates. The results show that joule heating is an important and at times the dominant energy source at high latitudes. However, the global mean joule heating rates calculated near solar minimum are generally small compared to the global mean solar EUV heating rates. (auth)

The role of zonally asymmetric heating in the vertical and temporal structure of the global scale flow fields during FGGE SOP-1

Science.gov (United States)

Paegle, J.; Kalnay, E.; Baker, W. E.

1981-01-01

The global scale structure of atmospheric flow is best documented on time scales longer than a few days. Theoretical and observational studies of ultralong waves have emphasized forcing due to global scale variations of topography and surface heat flux, possibly interacting with baroclinically unstable or vertically refracting basic flows. Analyses of SOP-1 data in terms of global scale spherical harmonics is documented with emphasis upon weekly transitions.

Scale and Scope Economies in the Global Advertising and Marketing Services Business

OpenAIRE

Alvin J. Silk; Ernst R. Berndt

2003-01-01

We assess size and scope-related economies in the global advertising and marketing services business. A translog cost function is employed wherein a firm's costs vary according to its scale and two dimensions of the scope of its operations. Parameters of the model are estimated via three stage least squares using annual data for 1989-2001 for an unbalanced panel consisting of the eight largest firms in this industry. A firm's total variable costs are affected by its scale, scope (mix of servi...

The Children's Global Assessment Scale (CGAS) and Global Assessment of Psychosocial Disability (GAPD) in clinical practice--substance and reliability as judged by intraclass correlations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dyrborg, J; Larsen, F W; Nielsen, S

2000-01-01

Studies on the inter-rater reliability on the Children's Global Assessment Scale (CGAS) and the Global Assessment of Psychosocial Disability (GAPD) involving different subgroups of 145 outpatients from 4 to 16 years of age showed fair to substantial intraclass correlations of 0.59 to 0.90. Raters...

Exploration of time-course combinations of outcome scales for use in a global test of stroke recovery.

Science.gov (United States)

Goldie, Fraser C; Fulton, Rachael L; Dawson, Jesse; Bluhmki, Erich; Lees, Kennedy R

2014-08-01

Clinical trials for acute ischemic stroke treatment require large numbers of participants and are expensive to conduct. Methods that enhance statistical power are therefore desirable. We explored whether this can be achieved by a measure incorporating both early and late measures of outcome (e.g. seven-day NIH Stroke Scale combined with 90-day modified Rankin scale). We analyzed sensitivity to treatment effect, using proportional odds logistic regression for ordinal scales and generalized estimating equation method for global outcomes, with all analyses adjusted for baseline severity and age. We ran simulations to assess relations between sample size and power for ordinal scales and corresponding global outcomes. We used R version 2·12·1 (R Development Core Team. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria) for simulations and SAS 9·2 (SAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC, USA) for all other analyses. Each scale considered for combination was sensitive to treatment effect in isolation. The mRS90 and NIHSS90 had adjusted odds ratio of 1·56 and 1·62, respectively. Adjusted odds ratio for global outcomes of the combination of mRS90 with NIHSS7 and NIHSS90 with NIHSS7 were 1·69 and 1·73, respectively. The smallest sample sizes required to generate statistical power ≥80% for mRS90, NIHSS7, and global outcomes of mRS90 and NIHSS7 combined and NIHSS90 and NIHSS7 combined were 500, 490, 400, and 380, respectively. When data concerning both early and late outcomes are combined into a global measure, there is increased sensitivity to treatment effect compared with solitary ordinal scales. This delivers a 20% reduction in required sample size at 80% power. Combining early with late outcomes merits further consideration. © 2013 The Authors. International Journal of Stroke © 2013 World Stroke Organization.

The global financial crisis and health: scaling up our effort.

Science.gov (United States)

Labonté, Ronald

2009-01-01

Economic events of the past year are beginning to create hardships for tens of thousands of Canadians. There are likely to be health effects as well, to the extent that unemployment and poverty rates rise. Conditions, however, will be much worse for those living in poorer countries. High-income countries are committing trillions of dollars in countercyclical spending and banking bail-outs. Poorer countries need to do the same, but lack the resources to do so. Yet foreign aid and fairer trade are widely expected to be among the first high-income country victims of the recession fallout as nations turn inwards and protectionist. This is neither good for global health nor necessary given the scale of untaxed (or unfairly taxed) wealth that could be harnessed for a truly global rescue package. Policy choices confront us. The Canadian public health community must hold our political leadership accountable for making those choices that will improve health globally and not further imperil the well-being of much of the world's population in efforts to secure our own future economic revival.

Traveling-wave reactors: A truly sustainable and full-scale resource for global energy needs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ellis, T.; Petroski, R.; Hejzlar, P.; Zimmerman, G.; McAlees, D.; Whitmer, C.; Touran, N.; Hejzlar, J.; Weave, K.; Walter, J. C.; McWhirter, J.; Ahlfeld, C.; Burke, T.; Odedra, A.; Hyde, R.; Gilleland, J.; Ishikawa, Y.; Wood, L.; Myhrvold, N.; Gates Iii, W. H.

2010-01-01

Rising environmental and economic concerns have signaled a desire to reduce dependence on hydrocarbon fuels. These concerns have brought the world to an inflection point and decisions made today will dictate what the global energy landscape will look like for the next half century or more. An optimal energy technology for the future must meet stricter standards than in the past; in addition to being economically attractive, it now must also be environmentally benign, sustainable and scalable to global use. For stationary energy, only one existing resource comes close to fitting all of the societal requirements for an optimal energy source: nuclear energy. Its demonstrated economic performance, power density, and emissions-free benefits significantly elevate nuclear electricity generation above other energy sources. However, the current nuclear fuel cycle has some attributes that make it challenging to expand on a global scale. Traveling-wave reactor (TWR) technology, being developed by TerraPower, LLC, represents a potential solution to these limitations by offering a nuclear energy resource which is truly sustainable at full global scale for the indefinite future and is deployable in the near-term. TWRs are capable of offering a ∼40-fold gain in fuel utilization efficiency compared to conventional light-water reactors burning enriched fuel. Such high fuel efficiency, combined with an ability to use uranium recovered from river water or sea-water (which has been recently demonstrated to be technically and economically feasible) suggests that enough fuel is readily available for TWRs to generate electricity for 10 billion people at United States per capita levels for million-year time-scales. Interestingly, the Earth's rivers carry into the ocean a flux of uranium several times greater than that required to replace the implied rate-of-consumption, so that the Earth's slowly-eroding crust will provide a readily-accessible flow of uranium sufficient for all of

Aerosol-cloud interactions from urban, regional to global scales

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Yuan

2015-01-01

The studies in this dissertation aim at advancing our scientific understandings about physical processes involved in the aerosol-cloud-precipitation interaction and quantitatively assessing the impacts of aerosols on the cloud systems with diverse scales over the globe on the basis of the observational data analysis and various modeling studies. As recognized in the Fifth Assessment Report by the Inter-government Panel on Climate Change, the magnitude of radiative forcing by atmospheric aerosols is highly uncertain, representing the largest uncertainty in projections of future climate by anthropogenic activities. By using a newly implemented cloud microphysical scheme in the cloud-resolving model, the thesis assesses aerosol-cloud interaction for distinct weather systems, ranging from individual cumulus to mesoscale convective systems. This thesis also introduces a novel hierarchical modeling approach that solves a long outstanding mismatch between simulations by regional weather models and global climate models in the climate modeling community. More importantly, the thesis provides key scientific solutions to several challenging questions in climate science, including the global impacts of the Asian pollution. As scientists wrestle with the complexities of climate change in response to varied anthropogenic forcing, perhaps no problem is more challenging than the understanding of the impacts of atmospheric aerosols from air pollution on clouds and the global circulation.

Aerosol-cloud interactions from urban, regional to global scales

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Yuan [California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA (United States). Seismological Lab.

2015-10-01

The studies in this dissertation aim at advancing our scientific understandings about physical processes involved in the aerosol-cloud-precipitation interaction and quantitatively assessing the impacts of aerosols on the cloud systems with diverse scales over the globe on the basis of the observational data analysis and various modeling studies. As recognized in the Fifth Assessment Report by the Inter-government Panel on Climate Change, the magnitude of radiative forcing by atmospheric aerosols is highly uncertain, representing the largest uncertainty in projections of future climate by anthropogenic activities. By using a newly implemented cloud microphysical scheme in the cloud-resolving model, the thesis assesses aerosol-cloud interaction for distinct weather systems, ranging from individual cumulus to mesoscale convective systems. This thesis also introduces a novel hierarchical modeling approach that solves a long outstanding mismatch between simulations by regional weather models and global climate models in the climate modeling community. More importantly, the thesis provides key scientific solutions to several challenging questions in climate science, including the global impacts of the Asian pollution. As scientists wrestle with the complexities of climate change in response to varied anthropogenic forcing, perhaps no problem is more challenging than the understanding of the impacts of atmospheric aerosols from air pollution on clouds and the global circulation.

Introduction to the Special Issue: Across the horizon: scale effects in global change research.

Science.gov (United States)

Gornish, Elise S; Leuzinger, Sebastian

2015-01-01

As a result of the increasing speed and magnitude in which habitats worldwide are experiencing environmental change, making accurate predictions of the effects of global change on ecosystems and the organisms that inhabit them have become an important goal for ecologists. Experimental and modelling approaches aimed at understanding the linkages between factors of global change and biotic responses have become numerous and increasingly complex in order to adequately capture the multifarious dynamics associated with these relationships. However, constrained by resources, experiments are often conducted at small spatiotemporal scales (e.g. looking at a plot of a few square metres over a few years) and at low organizational levels (looking at organisms rather than ecosystems) in spite of both theoretical and experimental work that suggests ecological dynamics across scales can be dissimilar. This phenomenon has been hypothesized to occur because the mechanisms that drive dynamics across scales differ. A good example is the effect of elevated CO2 on transpiration. While at the leaf level, transpiration can be reduced, at the stand level, transpiration can increase because leaf area per unit ground area increases. The reported net effect is then highly dependent on the spatiotemporal scale. This special issue considers the biological relevancy inherent in the patterns associated with the magnitude and type of response to changing environmental conditions, across scales. This collection of papers attempts to provide a comprehensive treatment of this phenomenon in order to help develop an understanding of the extent of, and mechanisms involved with, ecological response to global change. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company.

Kinetics programs for simulation of tropospheric photochemistry on the global scale

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Elliott, S.; Kao, C.Y.J.; Turco, R.P.; Zhao, X.P.

1993-08-01

The study of tropospheric kinetics underlies global change because key greenhouse gases are photochemically active. Modeling of tropospheric chemistry on a global scale is essential because some indirect greenhouse gases are short-lived and interact in a non-linear fashion. It is also extremely challenging, however; the global change grid is extensive in both the physical and temporal domains, and critical lower atmospheric species include the organics and their oxidized derivatives, which are numerous. Several types of optimization may be incorporated into kinetics modules to enhance their ability to simulate the complete lower atmospheric gas phase chemical system. (1) The photochemical integrator can be accelerated by avoiding matrix and iterative solutions and by establishing families. Accuracy and mass conservation are sacrificed in the absence of iteration, but atom balancing is restorable post hoc. (2) Chemistry can be arranged upon the massive grid to exploit parallel processing, and solutions to its continuity equations can be automated to permit experimentation with species and reaction lists or family definitions. Costs in programming effort will be incurred in these cases. (3) Complex hydrocarbon decay sequences can be streamlined either through structural lumping methods descended from smog investigations, which require considerable calibration, or by defining surrogates for classes of compounds, with a loss in constituent detail. From among the available options, the most advantageous permutations will vary with the specific nature of any eventual global scale study, and there is likely to be demand for many approaches. Tracer transport codes serve as a foundation upon which tropospheric chemistry packages will be tested. Encroachment of the NO x sphere of influence upon tropical rain forests and the upper free troposphere are two examples of specific problems to which full three-dimensional chemical simulations might be applied

Large-scale groundwater modeling using global datasets: A test case for the Rhine-Meuse basin

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sutanudjaja, E.H.; Beek, L.P.H. van; Jong, S.M. de; Geer, F.C. van; Bierkens, M.F.P.

2011-01-01

Large-scale groundwater models involving aquifers and basins of multiple countries are still rare due to a lack of hydrogeological data which are usually only available in developed countries. In this study, we propose a novel approach to construct large-scale groundwater models by using global

Water balance creates a threshold in soil pH at the global scale

Science.gov (United States)

Slessarev, E. W.; Lin, Y.; Bingham, N. L.; Johnson, J. E.; Dai, Y.; Schimel, J. P.; Chadwick, O. A.

2016-12-01

Soil pH regulates the capacity of soils to store and supply nutrients, and thus contributes substantially to controlling productivity in terrestrial ecosystems. However, soil pH is not an independent regulator of soil fertility—rather, it is ultimately controlled by environmental forcing. In particular, small changes in water balance cause a steep transition from alkaline to acid soils across natural climate gradients. Although the processes governing this threshold in soil pH are well understood, the threshold has not been quantified at the global scale, where the influence of climate may be confounded by the effects of topography and mineralogy. Here we evaluate the global relationship between water balance and soil pH by extracting a spatially random sample (n = 20,000) from an extensive compilation of 60,291 soil pH measurements. We show that there is an abrupt transition from alkaline to acid soil pH that occurs at the point where mean annual precipitation begins to exceed mean annual potential evapotranspiration. We evaluate deviations from this global pattern, showing that they may result from seasonality, climate history, erosion and mineralogy. These results demonstrate that climate creates a nonlinear pattern in soil solution chemistry at the global scale; they also reveal conditions under which soils maintain pH out of equilibrium with modern climate.

Scaling future tropical cyclone damage with global mean temperature

Science.gov (United States)

Geiger, T.; Bresch, D.; Frieler, K.

2017-12-01

Tropical cyclones (TC) are one of the most damaging natural hazards and severely affectmany countries around the globe each year. Their nominal impact is projected to increasesubstantially as the exposed coastal population grows, per capita income increases, andanthropogenic climate change manifests. The magnitude of this increase, however, variesacross regions and is obscured by the stochastic behaviour of TCs, so far impeding arigorous quantification of trends in TC damage with global mean temperature (GMT) rise. Here, we build on the large sample of spatially explicit TCs simulations generated withinISIMIP(2b) for 1) pre-industrial conditions, 2) the historical period, and 3) future projectionsunder RCP2.6 and RCP6.0 to estimate future TC damage assuming fixed present-daysocio-economic conditions or SSP-based future projections of population patterns andincome. Damage estimates will be based on region-specific empirical damage modelsderived from reported damages and accounting for regional characteristics of vulnerability.Different combinations of 1) socio-economic drivers with pre-industrial climate or 2) changingclimate with fixed socio-economic conditions will be used to derive functional relationshipsbetween regionally aggregated changes in damages on one hand and global meantemperature and socio-economic predictors on the other hand. The obtained region-specific scaling of future TC damage with GMT provides valuable inputfor IPCC's special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C by quantifying theincremental changes in impact with global warming. The approach allows for an update ofdamage functions used in integrated assessment models, and contributes to assessing theadequateness of climate mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Developing and testing a global-scale regression model to quantify mean annual streamflow

Science.gov (United States)

Barbarossa, Valerio; Huijbregts, Mark A. J.; Hendriks, A. Jan; Beusen, Arthur H. W.; Clavreul, Julie; King, Henry; Schipper, Aafke M.

2017-01-01

Quantifying mean annual flow of rivers (MAF) at ungauged sites is essential for assessments of global water supply, ecosystem integrity and water footprints. MAF can be quantified with spatially explicit process-based models, which might be overly time-consuming and data-intensive for this purpose, or with empirical regression models that predict MAF based on climate and catchment characteristics. Yet, regression models have mostly been developed at a regional scale and the extent to which they can be extrapolated to other regions is not known. In this study, we developed a global-scale regression model for MAF based on a dataset unprecedented in size, using observations of discharge and catchment characteristics from 1885 catchments worldwide, measuring between 2 and 106 km2. In addition, we compared the performance of the regression model with the predictive ability of the spatially explicit global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB by comparing results from both models to independent measurements. We obtained a regression model explaining 89% of the variance in MAF based on catchment area and catchment averaged mean annual precipitation and air temperature, slope and elevation. The regression model performed better than PCR-GLOBWB for the prediction of MAF, as root-mean-square error (RMSE) values were lower (0.29-0.38 compared to 0.49-0.57) and the modified index of agreement (d) was higher (0.80-0.83 compared to 0.72-0.75). Our regression model can be applied globally to estimate MAF at any point of the river network, thus providing a feasible alternative to spatially explicit process-based global hydrological models.

Seventh meeting of the Global Alliance to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis: reaching the vision by scaling up, scaling down, and reaching out

Science.gov (United States)

2014-01-01

This report summarizes the 7th meeting of the Global Alliance to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GAELF), Washington DC, November 18–19, 2012. The theme, “A Future Free of Lymphatic Filariasis: Reaching the Vision by Scaling Up, Scaling Down and Reaching Out”, emphasized new strategies and partnerships necessary to reach the 2020 goal of elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF) as a public-health problem. PMID:24450283

Global forward-predicting dynamic routing for traffic concurrency space stereo multi-layer scale-free network

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xie Wei-Hao; Zhou Bin; Liu En-Xiao; Lu Wei-Dang; Zhou Ting

2015-01-01

Many real communication networks, such as oceanic monitoring network and land environment observation network, can be described as space stereo multi-layer structure, and the traffic in these networks is concurrent. Understanding how traffic dynamics depend on these real communication networks and finding an effective routing strategy that can fit the circumstance of traffic concurrency and enhance the network performance are necessary. In this light, we propose a traffic model for space stereo multi-layer complex network and introduce two kinds of global forward-predicting dynamic routing strategies, global forward-predicting hybrid minimum queue (HMQ) routing strategy and global forward-predicting hybrid minimum degree and queue (HMDQ) routing strategy, for traffic concurrency space stereo multi-layer scale-free networks. By applying forward-predicting strategy, the proposed routing strategies achieve better performances in traffic concurrency space stereo multi-layer scale-free networks. Compared with the efficient routing strategy and global dynamic routing strategy, HMDQ and HMQ routing strategies can optimize the traffic distribution, alleviate the number of congested packets effectively and reach much higher network capacity. (paper)

Modeling the impact of large-scale energy conversion systems on global climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Williams, J.

There are three energy options which could satisfy a projected energy requirement of about 30 TW and these are the solar, nuclear and (to a lesser extent) coal options. Climate models can be used to assess the impact of large scale deployment of these options. The impact of waste heat has been assessed using energy balance models and general circulation models (GCMs). Results suggest that the impacts are significant when the heat imput is very high and studies of more realistic scenarios are required. Energy balance models, radiative-convective models and a GCM have been used to study the impact of doubling the atmospheric CO 2 concentration. State-of-the-art models estimate a surface temperature increase of 1.5-3.0 0 C with large amplification near the poles, but much uncertainty remains. Very few model studies have been made of the impact of particles on global climate, more information on the characteristics of particle input are required. The impact of large-scale deployment of solar energy conversion systems has received little attention but model studies suggest that large scale changes in surface characteristics associated with such systems (surface heat balance, roughness and hydrological characteristics and ocean surface temperature) could have significant global climatic effects. (Auth.)

Bioremediation at a global scale: from the test tube to planet Earth.

Science.gov (United States)

de Lorenzo, Víctor; Marlière, Philippe; Solé, Ricard

2016-09-01

Planet Earth's biosphere has evolved over billions of years as a balanced bio-geological system ultimately sustained by sunpower and the large-scale cycling of elements largely run by the global environmental microbiome. Humans have been part of this picture for much of their existence. But the industrial revolution started in the XIX century and the subsequent advances in medicine, chemistry, agriculture and communications have impacted such balances to an unprecedented degree - and the problem has nothing but exacerbated in the last 20 years. Human overpopulation, industrial growth along with unsustainable use of natural resources have driven many sites and perhaps the planetary ecosystem as a whole, beyond recovery by spontaneous natural means, even if the immediate causes could be stopped. The most conspicuous indications of such a state of affairs include the massive change in land use, the accelerated increase in the levels of greenhouse gases, the frequent natural disasters associated to climate change and the growing non-recyclable waste (e.g. plastics and recalcitrant chemicals) that we release to the Environment. While the whole planet is afflicted at a global scale by chemical pollution and anthropogenic emissions, the ongoing development of systems and synthetic biology, metagenomics, modern chemistry and some key concepts from ecological theory allow us to tackle this phenomenal challenge and propose large-scale interventions aimed at reversing and even improving the situation. This involves (i) identification of key reactions or processes that need to be re-established (or altogether created) for ecosystem reinstallation, (ii) implementation of such reactions in natural or designer hosts able to self-replicate and deliver the corresponding activities when/where needed in a fashion guided by sound ecological modelling, (iii) dispersal of niche-creating agents at a global scale and (iv) containment, monitoring and risk assessment of the whole process

A suite of global, cross-scale topographic variables for environmental and biodiversity modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Amatulli, Giuseppe; Domisch, Sami; Tuanmu, Mao-Ning; Parmentier, Benoit; Ranipeta, Ajay; Malczyk, Jeremy; Jetz, Walter

2018-03-01

Topographic variation underpins a myriad of patterns and processes in hydrology, climatology, geography and ecology and is key to understanding the variation of life on the planet. A fully standardized and global multivariate product of different terrain features has the potential to support many large-scale research applications, however to date, such datasets are unavailable. Here we used the digital elevation model products of global 250 m GMTED2010 and near-global 90 m SRTM4.1dev to derive a suite of topographic variables: elevation, slope, aspect, eastness, northness, roughness, terrain roughness index, topographic position index, vector ruggedness measure, profile/tangential curvature, first/second order partial derivative, and 10 geomorphological landform classes. We aggregated each variable to 1, 5, 10, 50 and 100 km spatial grains using several aggregation approaches. While a cross-correlation underlines the high similarity of many variables, a more detailed view in four mountain regions reveals local differences, as well as scale variations in the aggregated variables at different spatial grains. All newly-developed variables are available for download at Data Citation 1 and for download and visualization at http://www.earthenv.org/topography.

Landslide susceptibility mapping on a global scale using the method of logistic regression

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. Lin

2017-08-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a statistical model for mapping global landslide susceptibility based on logistic regression. After investigating explanatory factors for landslides in the existing literature, five factors were selected for model landslide susceptibility: relative relief, extreme precipitation, lithology, ground motion and soil moisture. When building the model, 70 % of landslide and nonlandslide points were randomly selected for logistic regression, and the others were used for model validation. To evaluate the accuracy of predictive models, this paper adopts several criteria including a receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve method. Logistic regression experiments found all five factors to be significant in explaining landslide occurrence on a global scale. During the modeling process, percentage correct in confusion matrix of landslide classification was approximately 80 % and the area under the curve (AUC was nearly 0.87. During the validation process, the above statistics were about 81 % and 0.88, respectively. Such a result indicates that the model has strong robustness and stable performance. This model found that at a global scale, soil moisture can be dominant in the occurrence of landslides and topographic factor may be secondary.

Spatial modeling of agricultural land use change at global scale

Science.gov (United States)

Meiyappan, P.; Dalton, M.; O'Neill, B. C.; Jain, A. K.

2014-11-01

Long-term modeling of agricultural land use is central in global scale assessments of climate change, food security, biodiversity, and climate adaptation and mitigation policies. We present a global-scale dynamic land use allocation model and show that it can reproduce the broad spatial features of the past 100 years of evolution of cropland and pastureland patterns. The modeling approach integrates economic theory, observed land use history, and data on both socioeconomic and biophysical determinants of land use change, and estimates relationships using long-term historical data, thereby making it suitable for long-term projections. The underlying economic motivation is maximization of expected profits by hypothesized landowners within each grid cell. The model predicts fractional land use for cropland and pastureland within each grid cell based on socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors that change with time. The model explicitly incorporates the following key features: (1) land use competition, (2) spatial heterogeneity in the nature of driving factors across geographic regions, (3) spatial heterogeneity in the relative importance of driving factors and previous land use patterns in determining land use allocation, and (4) spatial and temporal autocorrelation in land use patterns. We show that land use allocation approaches based solely on previous land use history (but disregarding the impact of driving factors), or those accounting for both land use history and driving factors by mechanistically fitting models for the spatial processes of land use change do not reproduce well long-term historical land use patterns. With an example application to the terrestrial carbon cycle, we show that such inaccuracies in land use allocation can translate into significant implications for global environmental assessments. The modeling approach and its evaluation provide an example that can be useful to the land use, Integrated Assessment, and the Earth system modeling

BETR global - A geographically-explicit global-scale multimedia contaminant fate model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

MacLeod, Matthew; Waldow, Harald von; Tay, Pascal; Armitage, James M.; Woehrnschimmel, Henry; Riley, William J.; McKone, Thomas E.; Hungerbuhler, Konrad

2011-01-01

We present two new software implementations of the BETR Global multimedia contaminant fate model. The model uses steady-state or non-steady-state mass-balance calculations to describe the fate and transport of persistent organic pollutants using a desktop computer. The global environment is described using a database of long-term average monthly conditions on a 15 o x 15 o grid. We demonstrate BETR Global by modeling the global sources, transport, and removal of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5). - Two new software implementations of the Berkeley-Trent Global Contaminant Fate Model are available. The new model software is illustrated using a case study of the global fate of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5).

Analysis of global multiscale finite element methods for wave equations with continuum spatial scales

KAUST Repository

Jiang, Lijian; Efendiev, Yalchin; Ginting, Victor

2010-01-01

In this paper, we discuss a numerical multiscale approach for solving wave equations with heterogeneous coefficients. Our interest comes from geophysics applications and we assume that there is no scale separation with respect to spatial variables. To obtain the solution of these multiscale problems on a coarse grid, we compute global fields such that the solution smoothly depends on these fields. We present a Galerkin multiscale finite element method using the global information and provide a convergence analysis when applied to solve the wave equations. We investigate the relation between the smoothness of the global fields and convergence rates of the global Galerkin multiscale finite element method for the wave equations. Numerical examples demonstrate that the use of global information renders better accuracy for wave equations with heterogeneous coefficients than the local multiscale finite element method. © 2010 IMACS.

Analysis of global multiscale finite element methods for wave equations with continuum spatial scales

KAUST Repository

Jiang, Lijian

2010-08-01

In this paper, we discuss a numerical multiscale approach for solving wave equations with heterogeneous coefficients. Our interest comes from geophysics applications and we assume that there is no scale separation with respect to spatial variables. To obtain the solution of these multiscale problems on a coarse grid, we compute global fields such that the solution smoothly depends on these fields. We present a Galerkin multiscale finite element method using the global information and provide a convergence analysis when applied to solve the wave equations. We investigate the relation between the smoothness of the global fields and convergence rates of the global Galerkin multiscale finite element method for the wave equations. Numerical examples demonstrate that the use of global information renders better accuracy for wave equations with heterogeneous coefficients than the local multiscale finite element method. © 2010 IMACS.

Transforming Global Health by Improving the Science of Scale-Up

OpenAIRE

Kruk, Margaret E.; Yamey, Gavin; Angell, Sonia Y.; Beith, Alix; Cotlear, Daniel; Guanais, Frederico; Jacobs, Lisa; Saxenian, Helen; Victora, Cesar; Goosby, Eric

2016-01-01

In its report Global Health 2035, the Commission on Investing in Health proposed that health investments can reduce mortality in nearly all low- and middle-income countries to very low levels, thereby averting 10 million deaths per year from 2035 onward. Many of these gains could be achieved through scale-up of existing technologies and health services. A key instrument to close this gap is policy and implementation research (PIR) that aims to produce generalizable evidence on what works to i...

Spatial scaling of bacterial community diversity at shallow hydrothermal vents: a global comparison

Science.gov (United States)

Pop Ristova, P.; Hassenrueck, C.; Molari, M.; Fink, A.; Bühring, S. I.

2016-02-01

Marine shallow hydrothermal vents are extreme environments, often characterized by discharge of fluids with e.g. high temperatures, low pH, and laden with elements toxic to higher organisms. They occur at continental margins around the world's oceans, but represent fragmented, isolated habitats of locally small areal coverage. Microorganisms contribute the main biomass at shallow hydrothermal vent ecosystems and build the basis of the food chain by autotrophic fixation of carbon both via chemosynthesis and photosynthesis, occurring simultaneously. Despite their importance and unique capacity to adapt to these extreme environments, little is known about the spatial scales on which the alpha- and beta-diversity of microbial communities vary at shallow vents, and how the geochemical habitat heterogeneity influences shallow vent biodiversity. Here for the first time we investigated the spatial scaling of microbial biodiversity patterns and their interconnectivity at geochemically diverse shallow vents on a global scale. This study presents data on the comparison of bacterial community structures on large (> 1000 km) and small (0.1 - 100 m) spatial scales as derived from ARISA and Illumina sequencing. Despite the fragmented global distribution of shallow hydrothermal vents, similarity of vent bacterial communities decreased with geographic distance, confirming the ubiquity of distance-decay relationship. Moreover, at all investigated vents, pH was the main factor locally structuring these communities, while temperature influenced both the alpha- and beta-diversity.

African Journal of Science and Technology (AJST) SOLITARY ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

1993), and energy exchanges between different modes of the waves (Lenouo et ... Rossby's β-plane model, in which the northerly gradient of the vertical ... role of westward-travelling planetary (Rossby) waves in ... theory to examine the behaviour of the large-scale waves ..... requires the choice of additional wind speed C1.

Towards monitoring land-cover and land-use changes at a global scale: the global land survey 2005

Science.gov (United States)

Gutman, G.; Byrnes, Raymond A.; Masek, J.; Covington, S.; Justice, C.; Franks, S.; Headley, Rachel

2008-01-01

Land cover is a critical component of the Earth system, infl uencing land-atmosphere interactions, greenhouse gas fl uxes, ecosystem health, and availability of food, fi ber, and energy for human populations. The recent Integrated Global Observations of Land (IGOL) report calls for the generation of maps documenting global land cover at resolutions between 10m and 30m at least every fi ve years (Townshend et al., in press). Moreover, despite 35 years of Landsat observations, there has not been a unifi ed global analysis of land-cover trends nor has there been a global assessment of land-cover change at Landsat-like resolution. Since the 1990s, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) have supported development of data sets based on global Landsat observations (Tucker et al., 2004). These land survey data sets, usually referred to as GeoCover ™, provide global, orthorectifi ed, typically cloud-free Landsat imagery centered on the years 1975, 1990, and 2000, with a preference for leaf-on conditions. Collectively, these data sets provided a consistent set of observations to assess land-cover changes at a decadal scale. These data are freely available via the Internet from the USGS Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) (see http://earthexplorer.usgs.gov or http://glovis.usgs.gov). This has resulted in unprecedented downloads of data, which are widely used in scientifi c studies of land-cover change (e.g., Boone et al., 2007; Harris et al., 2005; Hilbert, 2006; Huang et al. 2007; Jantz et al., 2005, Kim et al., 2007; Leimgruber, 2005; Masek et al., 2006). NASA and USGS are continuing to support land-cover change research through the development of GLS2005 - an additional global Landsat assessment circa 20051 . Going beyond the earlier initiatives, this data set will establish a baseline for monitoring changes on a 5-year interval and will pave the way toward continuous global land

Modelling Groundwater Depletion at Regional and Global Scales: Present State and Future Prospects.

Science.gov (United States)

Wada, Yoshihide

2015-01-01

Except for frozen water in ice and glaciers, groundwater is the world's largest distributed store of freshwater and has strategic importance to global food and water security. In this paper, the most recent advances quantifying groundwater depletion (GWD) are comprehensively reviewed. This paper critically evaluates the recently advanced modeling approaches estimating GWD at regional and global scales, and the evidence of feedbacks to the Earth system including sea-level rise associated with GWD. Finally, critical challenges and opportunities in the use of groundwater are identified for the adaption to growing food demand and uncertain climate.

Global Scale Periodic Responses in Saturn’s Magnetosphere

Science.gov (United States)

Jia, Xianzhe; Kivelson, Margaret G.

2017-10-01

Despite having an axisymmetric internal magnetic field, Saturn’s magnetosphere exhibits periodic modulations in a variety of properties at periods close to the planetary rotation period. While the source of the periodicity remains unidentified, it is evident from Cassini observations that much of Saturn’s magnetospheric structure and dynamics is dominated by global-scale responses to the driving source of the periodicity. We have developed a global MHD model in which a rotating field-aligned current system is introduced by imposing vortical flows in the high-latitude ionosphere in order to simulate the magnetospheric periodicities. The model has been utilized to quantitatively characterize various periodic responses in the magnetosphere, such as the displacement of the magnetopause and bow shock and flapping of the tail plasma sheet, all of which show quantitative agreement with Cassini observations. One of our model predictions is periodic release of plasmoids in the tail that occurs preferentially in the midnight-to-dawn local time sector during each rotation cycle. Here we present detailed analysis of the periodic responses seen in our simulations focusing on the properties of plasmoids predicted by the model, including their spatial distribution, occurrence frequency, and mass loss rate. We will compare these modeled parameters with published Cassini observations, and discuss their implications for interpreting in-situ measurements.

Fractal Markets Hypothesis and the Global Financial Crisis: Scaling, Investment Horizons and Liquidity

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Krištoufek, Ladislav

2012-01-01

Roč. 15, č. 6 (2012), 1250065-1-1250065-13 ISSN 0219-5259 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/09/0965 Grant - others:GA UK(CZ) 118310; SVV(CZ) 265 504 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : fractal markets hypothesis * scaling * fractality * investment horizons * efficient markets hypothesis Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.647, year: 2012 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2012/E/kristoufek-fractal markets hypothesis and the global financial crisis scaling investment horizons and liquidity.pdf

Top-down constraints on disturbance dynamics in the terrestrial carbon cycle: effects at global and regional scales

Science.gov (United States)

Bloom, A. A.; Exbrayat, J. F.; van der Velde, I.; Peters, W.; Williams, M.

2014-12-01

Large uncertainties preside over terrestrial carbon flux estimates on a global scale. In particular, the strongly coupled dynamics between net ecosystem productivity and disturbance C losses are poorly constrained. To gain an improved understanding of ecosystem C dynamics from regional to global scale, we apply a Markov Chain Monte Carlo based model-data-fusion approach into the CArbon DAta-MOdel fraMework (CARDAMOM). We assimilate MODIS LAI and burned area, plant-trait data, and use the Harmonized World Soil Database (HWSD) and maps of above ground biomass as prior knowledge for initial conditions. We optimize model parameters based on (a) globally spanning observations and (b) ecological and dynamic constraints that force single parameter values and parameter inter-dependencies to be representative of real world processes. We determine the spatial and temporal dynamics of major terrestrial C fluxes and model parameter values on a global scale (GPP = 123 +/- 8 Pg C yr-1 & NEE = -1.8 +/- 2.7 Pg C yr-1). We further show that the incorporation of disturbance fluxes, and accounting for their instantaneous or delayed effect, is of critical importance in constraining global C cycle dynamics, particularly in the tropics. In a higher resolution case study centred on the Amazon Basin we show how fires not only trigger large instantaneous emissions of burned matter, but also how they are responsible for a sustained reduction of up to 50% in plant uptake following the depletion of biomass stocks. The combination of these two fire-induced effects leads to a 1 g C m-2 d-1reduction in the strength of the net terrestrial carbon sink. Through our simulations at regional and global scale, we advocate the need to assimilate disturbance metrics in global terrestrial carbon cycle models to bridge the gap between globally spanning terrestrial carbon cycle data and the full dynamics of the ecosystem C cycle. Disturbances are especially important because their quick occurrence may have

The Global-Scale Observations of the Limb and Disk (GOLD) Mission

Science.gov (United States)

Eastes, R. W.; McClintock, W. E.; Burns, A. G.; Anderson, D. N.; Andersson, L.; Codrescu, M.; Correira, J. T.; Daniell, R. E.; England, S. L.; Evans, J. S.; Harvey, J.; Krywonos, A.; Lumpe, J. D.; Richmond, A. D.; Rusch, D. W.; Siegmund, O.; Solomon, S. C.; Strickland, D. J.; Woods, T. N.; Aksnes, A.; Budzien, S. A.; Dymond, K. F.; Eparvier, F. G.; Martinis, C. R.; Oberheide, J.

2017-10-01

The Earth's thermosphere and ionosphere constitute a dynamic system that varies daily in response to energy inputs from above and from below. This system can exhibit a significant response within an hour to changes in those inputs, as plasma and fluid processes compete to control its temperature, composition, and structure. Within this system, short wavelength solar radiation and charged particles from the magnetosphere deposit energy, and waves propagating from the lower atmosphere dissipate. Understanding the global-scale response of the thermosphere-ionosphere ( T-I) system to these drivers is essential to advancing our physical understanding of coupling between the space environment and the Earth's atmosphere. Previous missions have successfully determined how the "climate" of the T-I system responds. The Global-scale Observations of the Limb and Disk (GOLD) mission will determine how the "weather" of the T-I responds, taking the next step in understanding the coupling between the space environment and the Earth's atmosphere. Operating in geostationary orbit, the GOLD imaging spectrograph will measure the Earth's emissions from 132 to 162 nm. These measurements will be used image two critical variables—thermospheric temperature and composition, near 160 km—on the dayside disk at half-hour time scales. At night they will be used to image the evolution of the low latitude ionosphere in the same regions that were observed earlier during the day. Due to the geostationary orbit being used the mission observes the same hemisphere repeatedly, allowing the unambiguous separation of spatial and temporal variability over the Americas.

Top-down constraints on disturbance dynamics in the terrestrial carbon cycle: effects at global and regional scales

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bloom, A. A.; Exbrayat, J. F.; van der Velde, I.; Peters, W.; Williams, M.

2014-01-01

Large uncertainties preside over terrestrial carbon flux estimates on a global scale. In particular, the strongly coupled dynamics between net ecosystem productivity and disturbance C losses are poorly constrained. To gain an improved understanding of ecosystem C dynamics from regional to global

Using Scaling to Understand, Model and Predict Global Scale Anthropogenic and Natural Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Lovejoy, S.; del Rio Amador, L.

2014-12-01

The atmosphere is variable over twenty orders of magnitude in time (≈10-3 to 1017 s) and almost all of the variance is in the spectral "background" which we show can be divided into five scaling regimes: weather, macroweather, climate, macroclimate and megaclimate. We illustrate this with instrumental and paleo data. Based the signs of the fluctuation exponent H, we argue that while the weather is "what you get" (H>0: fluctuations increasing with scale), that it is macroweather (Hdecreasing with scale) - not climate - "that you expect". The conventional framework that treats the background as close to white noise and focuses on quasi-periodic variability assumes a spectrum that is in error by a factor of a quadrillion (≈ 1015). Using this scaling framework, we can quantify the natural variability, distinguish it from anthropogenic variability, test various statistical hypotheses and make stochastic climate forecasts. For example, we estimate the probability that the warming is simply a giant century long natural fluctuation is less than 1%, most likely less than 0.1% and estimate return periods for natural warming events of different strengths and durations, including the slow down ("pause") in the warming since 1998. The return period for the pause was found to be 20-50 years i.e. not very unusual; however it immediately follows a 6 year "pre-pause" warming event of almost the same magnitude with a similar return period (30 - 40 years). To improve on these unconditional estimates, we can use scaling models to exploit the long range memory of the climate process to make accurate stochastic forecasts of the climate including the pause. We illustrate stochastic forecasts on monthly and annual scale series of global and northern hemisphere surface temperatures. We obtain forecast skill nearly as high as the theoretical (scaling) predictability limits allow: for example, using hindcasts we find that at 10 year forecast horizons we can still explain ≈ 15% of the

Interannual Variation in Phytoplankton Class-Specific Primary Production at a Global Scale

Science.gov (United States)

Rousseaux, Cecile Severine; Gregg, Watson W.

2014-01-01

We used the NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM) combined with remote sensing data via assimilation to evaluate the contribution of 4 phytoplankton groups to the total primary production. First we assessed the contribution of each phytoplankton groups to the total primary production at a global scale for the period 1998-2011. Globally, diatoms were the group that contributed the most to the total phytoplankton production (50, the equivalent of 20 PgC y-1. Coccolithophores and chlorophytes each contributed to 20 (7 PgC y-1 of the total primary production and cyanobacteria represented about 10 (4 PgC y(sub-1) of the total primary production. Primary production by diatoms was highest in high latitude (45) and in major upwelling systems (Equatorial Pacific and Benguela system). We then assessed interannual variability of this group-specific primary production over the period 1998-2011. Globally the annual relative contribution of each phytoplankton groups to the total primary production varied by maximum 4 (1-2 PgC y-1. We assessed the effects of climate variability on the class-specific primary production using global (i.e. Multivariate El Nio Index, MEI) and regional climate indices (e.g. Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)). Most interannual variability occurred in the Equatorial Pacific and was associated with climate variability as indicated by significant correlation (p 0.05) between the MEI and the class-specific primary production from all groups except coccolithophores. In the Atlantic, climate variability as indicated by NAO was significantly correlated to the primary production of 2 out of the 4 groups in the North Central Atlantic (diatomscyanobacteria) and in the North Atlantic (chlorophytes and coccolithophores). We found that climate variability as indicated by SAM had only a limited effect on the class-specific primary production in the Southern Ocean. These results provide a modeling and

How important is biological ice nucleation in clouds on a global scale?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoose, C; Kristjansson, J E; Burrows, S M

2010-01-01

The high ice nucleating ability of some biological particles has led to speculations about living and dead organisms being involved in cloud ice and precipitation formation, exerting a possibly significant influence on weather and climate. In the present study, the role of primary biological aerosol particles (PBAPs) as heterogeneous ice nuclei is investigated with a global model. Emission parametrizations for bacteria, fungal spores and pollen based on recent literature are introduced, as well as an immersion freezing parametrization based on classical nucleation theory and laboratory measurements. The simulated contribution of PBAPs to the global average ice nucleation rate is only 10 -5 %, with an uppermost estimate of 0.6%. At the same time, observed PBAP concentrations in air and biological ice nucleus concentrations in snow are reasonably well captured by the model. This implies that 'bioprecipitation' processes (snow and rain initiated by PBAPs) are of minor importance on the global scale.

Optimal Stomatal Behaviour Around the World: Synthesis of a Global Stomatal Conductance Database and Scaling from Leaf to Ecosystem

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Y. S.; Medlyn, B. E.; Duursma, R.; Prentice, I. C.; Wang, H.

2014-12-01

Stomatal conductance (gs) is a key land surface attribute as it links transpiration, the dominant component of global land evapotranspiration and a key element of the global water cycle, and photosynthesis, the driving force of the global carbon cycle. Despite the pivotal role of gs in predictions of global water and carbon cycles, a global scale database and an associated globally applicable model of gs that allow predictions of stomatal behaviour are lacking. We present a unique database of globally distributed gs obtained in the field for a wide range of plant functional types (PFTs) and biomes. We employed a model of optimal stomatal conductance to assess differences in stomatal behaviour, and estimated the model slope coefficient, g1, which is directly related to the marginal carbon cost of water, for each dataset. We found that g1 varies considerably among PFTs, with evergreen savanna trees having the largest g1 (least conservative water use), followed by C3 grasses and crops, angiosperm trees, gymnosperm trees, and C4 grasses. Amongst angiosperm trees, species with higher wood density had a higher marginal carbon cost of water, as predicted by the theory underpinning the optimal stomatal model. There was an interactive effect between temperature and moisture availability on g1: for wet environments, g1 was largest in high temperature environments, indicated by high mean annual temperature during the period when temperature above 0oC (Tm), but it did not vary with Tm across dry environments. We examine whether these differences in leaf-scale behaviour are reflected in ecosystem-scale differences in water-use efficiency. These findings provide a robust theoretical framework for understanding and predicting the behaviour of stomatal conductance across biomes and across PFTs that can be applied to regional, continental and global-scale modelling of productivity and ecohydrological processes in a future changing climate.

Black Carbon Absorption at the Global Scale Is Affected by Particle-Scale Diversity in Composition

Science.gov (United States)

Fierce, Laura; Bond, Tami C.; Bauer, Susanne E.; Mena, Francisco; Riemer, Nicole

2016-01-01

Atmospheric black carbon (BC) exerts a strong, but uncertain, warming effect on the climate. BC that is coated with non-absorbing material absorbs more strongly than the same amount of BC in an uncoated particle, but the magnitude of this absorption enhancement (E(sub abs)) is not well constrained. Modelling studies and laboratory measurements have found stronger absorption enhancement than has been observed in the atmosphere. Here, using a particle-resolved aerosol model to simulate diverse BC populations, we show that absorption is overestimated by as much as a factor of two if diversity is neglected and population-averaged composition is assumed across all BC-containing particles. If, instead, composition diversity is resolved, we find E(sub abs) = 1 - 1.5 at low relative humidity, consistent with ambient observations. This study offers not only an explanation for the discrepancy between modelled and observed absorption enhancement, but also demonstrates how particle-scale simulations can be used to develop relationships for global-scale models.

The Stanford Microsurgery and Resident Training (SMaRT) Scale: validation of an on-line global rating scale for technical assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Satterwhite, Thomas; Son, Ji; Carey, Joseph; Echo, Anthony; Spurling, Terry; Paro, John; Gurtner, Geoffrey; Chang, James; Lee, Gordon K

2014-05-01

We previously reported results of our on-line microsurgery training program, showing that residents who had access to our website significantly improved their cognitive and technical skills. In this study, we report an objective means for expert evaluators to reliably rate trainees' technical skills under the microscope, with the use of our novel global rating scale. "Microsurgery Essentials" (http://smartmicrosurgery.com) is our on-line training curriculum. Residents were randomly divided into 2 groups: 1 group reviewed this online resource and the other did not. Pre- and post-tests consisted of videotaped microsurgical sessions in which the trainee performed "microsurgery" on 3 different models: latex glove, penrose drain, and the dorsal vessel of a chicken foot. The SMaRT (Stanford Microsurgery and Resident Training) scale, consisting of 9 categories graded on a 5-point Likert scale, was used to assess the trainees. Results were analyzed with ANOVA and Student t test, with P less than 0.05 indicating statistical significance. Seventeen residents participated in the study. The SMaRT scale adequately differentiated the performance of more experienced senior residents (PGY-4 to PGY-6, total average score=3.43) from less experienced junior residents (PGY-1 to PGY-3, total average score=2.10, P0.05). Additionally, junior residents who had access to our website showed a significant increase in their graded technical performance by 0.7 points when compared to residents who did not have access to the website who showed an improvement of only 0.2 points (P=0.01). Our SMaRT scale is valid and reliable in assessing the microsurgical skills of residents and other trainees. Current trainees are more likely to use self-directed on-line education because of its easy accessibility and interactive format. Our global rating scale can help ensure residents are achieving appropriate technical milestones.

Distinguishing globally-driven changes from regional- and local-scale impacts: The case for long-term and broad-scale studies of recovery from pollution.

Science.gov (United States)

Hawkins, S J; Evans, A J; Mieszkowska, N; Adams, L C; Bray, S; Burrows, M T; Firth, L B; Genner, M J; Leung, K M Y; Moore, P J; Pack, K; Schuster, H; Sims, D W; Whittington, M; Southward, E C

2017-11-30

Marine ecosystems are subject to anthropogenic change at global, regional and local scales. Global drivers interact with regional- and local-scale impacts of both a chronic and acute nature. Natural fluctuations and those driven by climate change need to be understood to diagnose local- and regional-scale impacts, and to inform assessments of recovery. Three case studies are used to illustrate the need for long-term studies: (i) separation of the influence of fishing pressure from climate change on bottom fish in the English Channel; (ii) recovery of rocky shore assemblages from the Torrey Canyon oil spill in the southwest of England; (iii) interaction of climate change and chronic Tributyltin pollution affecting recovery of rocky shore populations following the Torrey Canyon oil spill. We emphasize that "baselines" or "reference states" are better viewed as envelopes that are dependent on the time window of observation. Recommendations are made for adaptive management in a rapidly changing world. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

A new approach to inventorying bodies of water, from local to global scale

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bartout, Pascal

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Having reliable estimates of the number of water bodies on different geographical scales is of great importance to better understand biogeochemical cycles and to tackle the social issues related to the economic and cultural use of water bodies. However, limnological research suffers from a lack of reliable inventories; the available scientific references are predominately based on water bodies of natural origin, large in size and preferentially located in previously glaciated areas. Artificial, small and randomly distributed water bodies, especially ponds, are usually not inventoried. Following Wetzel’s theory (1990, some authors included them in global inventories by using remote sensing or mathematical extrapolation, but fieldwork on the ground has been done on a very limited amount of territory. These studies have resulted in an explosive increase in the estimated number of water bodies, going from 8.44 million lakes (Meybeck 1995 to 3.5 billion water bodies (Downing 2010. These numbers raise several questions, especially about the methodology used for counting small-sized water bodies and the methodological treatment of spatial variables. In this study, we use inventories of water bodies for Sweden, Finland, Estonia and France to show incoherencies generated by the “global to local” approach. We demonstrate that one universal relationship does not suffice for generating the regional or global inventories of water bodies because local conditions vary greatly from one region to another and cannot be offset adequately by each other. The current paradigm for global estimates of water bodies in limnology, which is based on one representative model applied to different territories, does not produce sufficiently exact global inventories. The step-wise progression from the local to the global scale requires the development of many regional equations based on fieldwork; a specific equation that adequately reflects the actual relationship

Applying the global RCP-SSP-SPA scenario framework at sub-national scale: A multi-scale and participatory scenario approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Kebede, Abiy S; Nicholls, Robert J; Allan, Andrew; Arto, Iñaki; Cazcarro, Ignacio; Fernandes, Jose A; Hill, Chris T; Hutton, Craig W; Kay, Susan; Lázár, Attila N; Macadam, Ian; Palmer, Matthew; Suckall, Natalie; Tompkins, Emma L; Vincent, Katharine; Whitehead, Paul W

2018-09-01

To better anticipate potential impacts of climate change, diverse information about the future is required, including climate, society and economy, and adaptation and mitigation. To address this need, a global RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways), SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathways), and SPA (Shared climate Policy Assumptions) (RCP-SSP-SPA) scenario framework has been developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR5). Application of this full global framework at sub-national scales introduces two key challenges: added complexity in capturing the multiple dimensions of change, and issues of scale. Perhaps for this reason, there are few such applications of this new framework. Here, we present an integrated multi-scale hybrid scenario approach that combines both expert-based and participatory methods. The framework has been developed and applied within the DECCMA 1 project with the purpose of exploring migration and adaptation in three deltas across West Africa and South Asia: (i) the Volta delta (Ghana), (ii) the Mahanadi delta (India), and (iii) the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta (Bangladesh/India). Using a climate scenario that encompasses a wide range of impacts (RCP8.5) combined with three SSP-based socio-economic scenarios (SSP2, SSP3, SSP5), we generate highly divergent and challenging scenario contexts across multiple scales against which robustness of the human and natural systems within the deltas are tested. In addition, we consider four distinct adaptation policy trajectories: Minimum intervention, Economic capacity expansion, System efficiency enhancement, and System restructuring, which describe alternative future bundles of adaptation actions/measures under different socio-economic trajectories. The paper highlights the importance of multi-scale (combined top-down and bottom-up) and participatory (joint expert-stakeholder) scenario methods for addressing uncertainty in adaptation decision

Multi-scale spatial modeling of human exposure from local sources to global intake

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wannaz, Cedric; Fantke, Peter; Jolliet, Olivier

2018-01-01

Exposure studies, used in human health risk and impact assessments of chemicals are largely performed locally or regionally. It is usually not known how global impacts resulting from exposure to point source emissions compare to local impacts. To address this problem, we introduce Pangea......, an innovative multi-scale, spatial multimedia fate and exposure assessment model. We study local to global population exposure associated with emissions from 126 point sources matching locations of waste-to-energy plants across France. Results for three chemicals with distinct physicochemical properties...... occur within a 100 km radius from the source. This suggests that, by neglecting distant low-level exposure, local assessments might only account for fractions of global cumulative intakes. We also study ~10,000 emission locations covering France more densely to determine per chemical and exposure route...

BETR Global - A geographically explicit global-scale multimedia contaminant fate model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Macleod, M.; Waldow, H. von; Tay, P.; Armitage, J. M.; Wohrnschimmel, H.; Riley, W.; McKone, T. E.; Hungerbuhler, K.

2011-04-01

We present two new software implementations of the BETR Global multimedia contaminant fate model. The model uses steady-state or non-steady-state mass-balance calculations to describe the fate and transport of persistent organic pollutants using a desktop computer. The global environment is described using a database of long-term average monthly conditions on a 15{sup o} x 15{sup o} grid. We demonstrate BETR Global by modeling the global sources, transport, and removal of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5).

The magnetic strip(s) in the advanced phases of stellar evolution. Theoretical convective turnover timescale and Rossby number for low- and intermediate-mass stars up to the AGB at various metallicities

Science.gov (United States)

Charbonnel, C.; Decressin, T.; Lagarde, N.; Gallet, F.; Palacios, A.; Aurière, M.; Konstantinova-Antova, R.; Mathis, S.; Anderson, R. I.; Dintrans, B.

2017-09-01

Context. Recent spectropolarimetric observations of otherwise ordinary (in terms e.g. of surface rotation and chemical properties) G, K, and M giants have revealed localized magnetic strips in the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram coincident with the regions where the first dredge-up and core helium burning occur. Aims: We seek to understand the origin of magnetic fields in such late-type giant stars, which is currently unexplained. In analogy with late-type dwarf stars, we focus primarily on parameters known to influence the generation of magnetic fields in the outer convective envelope. Methods: We compute the classical dynamo parameters along the evolutionary tracks of low- and intermediate-mass stars at various metallicities using stellar models that have been extensively tested by spectroscopic and asteroseismic observations. Specifically, these include convective turnover timescales and convective Rossby numbers, computed from the pre-main sequence (PMS) to the tip of the red giant branch (RGB) or the early asymptotic giant branch (AGB) phase. To investigate the effects of the very extended outer convective envelope, we compute these parameters both for the entire convective envelope and locally, that is, at different depths within the envelope. We also compute the turnover timescales and corresponding Rossby numbers for the convective cores of intermediate-mass stars on the main sequence. Results: Our models show that the Rossby number of the convective envelope becomes lower than unity in the well-delimited locations of the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram where magnetic fields have indeed been detected. Conclusions: We show that α - Ω dynamo processes might not be continuously operating, but that they are favored in the stellar convective envelope at two specific moments along the evolution tracks, that is, during the first dredge-up at the base of the RGB and during central helium burning in the helium-burning phase and early-AGB. This general behavior can explain

Global Exponential Stability of Delayed Cohen-Grossberg BAM Neural Networks with Impulses on Time Scales

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yongkun Li

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Based on the theory of calculus on time scales, the homeomorphism theory, Lyapunov functional method, and some analysis techniques, sufficient conditions are obtained for the existence, uniqueness, and global exponential stability of the equilibrium point of Cohen-Grossberg bidirectional associative memory (BAM neural networks with distributed delays and impulses on time scales. This is the first time applying the time-scale calculus theory to unify the discrete-time and continuous-time Cohen-Grossberg BAM neural network with impulses under the same framework.

Diversification and intensification of agricultural adaptation from global to local scales.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Minjie Chen

Full Text Available Smallholder farming systems are vulnerable to a number of challenges, including continued population growth, urbanization, income disparities, land degradation, decreasing farm size and productivity, all of which are compounded by uncertainty of climatic patterns. Understanding determinants of smallholder farming practices is critical for designing and implementing successful interventions, including climate change adaptation programs. We examine two dimensions wherein smallholder farmers may adapt agricultural practices; through intensification (i.e., adopt more practices or diversification (i.e. adopt different practices. We use data on 5314 randomly sampled households located in 38 sites in 15 countries across four regions (East and West Africa, South Asia, and Central America. We estimate empirical models designed to assess determinants of both intensification and diversification of adaptation activities at global scales. Aspects of adaptive capacity that are found to increase intensification of adaptation globally include variables associated with access to information and human capital, financial considerations, assets, household infrastructure and experience. In contrast, there are few global drivers of adaptive diversification, with a notable exception being access to weather information, which also increases adaptive intensification. Investigating reasons for adaptation indicate that conditions present in underdeveloped markets provide the primary impetus for adaptation, even in the context of climate change. We also compare determinants across spatial scales, which reveals a variety of local avenues through which policy interventions can relax economic constraints and boost agricultural adaptation for both intensification and diversification. For example, access to weather information does not affect intensification adaptation in Africa, but is significant at several sites in Bangladesh and India. Moreover, this information leads to

Diversification and intensification of agricultural adaptation from global to local scales

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Minjie; Wichmann, Bruno; Luckert, Marty; Winowiecki, Leigh; Förch, Wiebke

2018-01-01

Smallholder farming systems are vulnerable to a number of challenges, including continued population growth, urbanization, income disparities, land degradation, decreasing farm size and productivity, all of which are compounded by uncertainty of climatic patterns. Understanding determinants of smallholder farming practices is critical for designing and implementing successful interventions, including climate change adaptation programs. We examine two dimensions wherein smallholder farmers may adapt agricultural practices; through intensification (i.e., adopt more practices) or diversification (i.e. adopt different practices). We use data on 5314 randomly sampled households located in 38 sites in 15 countries across four regions (East and West Africa, South Asia, and Central America). We estimate empirical models designed to assess determinants of both intensification and diversification of adaptation activities at global scales. Aspects of adaptive capacity that are found to increase intensification of adaptation globally include variables associated with access to information and human capital, financial considerations, assets, household infrastructure and experience. In contrast, there are few global drivers of adaptive diversification, with a notable exception being access to weather information, which also increases adaptive intensification. Investigating reasons for adaptation indicate that conditions present in underdeveloped markets provide the primary impetus for adaptation, even in the context of climate change. We also compare determinants across spatial scales, which reveals a variety of local avenues through which policy interventions can relax economic constraints and boost agricultural adaptation for both intensification and diversification. For example, access to weather information does not affect intensification adaptation in Africa, but is significant at several sites in Bangladesh and India. Moreover, this information leads to diversification of

Global and exponential attractors of the three dimensional viscous primitive equations of large-scale moist atmosphere

OpenAIRE

You, Bo; Li, Fang

2016-01-01

This paper is concerned with the long-time behavior of solutions for the three dimensional viscous primitive equations of large-scale moist atmosphere. We prove the existence of a global attractor for the three dimensional viscous primitive equations of large-scale moist atmosphere by asymptotic a priori estimate and construct an exponential attractor by using the smoothing property of the semigroup generated by the three dimensional viscous primitive equations of large-scale moist atmosphere...

Effects of land cover change on the tropical circulation in a GCM

Science.gov (United States)

Jonko, Alexandra Karolina; Hense, Andreas; Feddema, Johannes Jan

2010-09-01

Multivariate statistics are used to investigate sensitivity of the tropical atmospheric circulation to scenario-based global land cover change (LCC), with the largest changes occurring in the tropics. Three simulations performed with the fully coupled Parallel Climate Model (PCM) are compared: (1) a present day control run; (2) a simulation with present day land cover and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 greenhouse gas (GHG) projections; and (3) a simulation with SRES A2 land cover and GHG projections. Dimensionality of PCM data is reduced by projection onto a priori specified eigenvectors, consisting of Rossby and Kelvin waves produced by a linearized, reduced gravity model of the tropical circulation. A Hotelling T 2 test is performed on projection amplitudes. Effects of LCC evaluated by this method are limited to diabatic heating. A statistically significant and recurrent signal is detected for 33% of all tests performed for various combinations of parameters. Taking into account uncertainties and limitations of the present methodology, this signal can be interpreted as a Rossby wave response to prescribed LCC. The Rossby waves are shallow, large-scale motions, trapped at the equator and most pronounced in boreal summer. Differences in mass and flow fields indicate a shift of the tropical Walker circulation patterns with an anomalous subsidence over tropical South America.

The evolution of an unsteady translating nonlinear rossby-wave critical layer

Science.gov (United States)

Haynes, Peter H.; Cowley, Stephen J.

When a monochromatic Rossby wave is forced on a flow which is slowly varying in time, the location of the critical line, where the phase speed of the wave is equal to that of the flow, also slowly changes. It is shown that this translation can play an important role in the vorticity balance near the critical line. The behavior of the translating critical layer is analyzed for various values of y, a parameter which measures the relative importance of nonlinear advection and translation. First, the vorticity equation in the critical layer is solved numerically in an important special case, where the velocity field in the critical layer is independent of the vorticity distribution and constant in time. The solutions reveal a number of new aspects of the behavior which are introduced by the translation, including the formation of a wake behind the critical layer, and the possibility of "trapping" of fluid particles in the critical layer if y exceeds a threshold value. Viewed in a frame of reference moving with the critical line the vorticity distribution may tend to a steady state, except in a "vorticity front" far downstream in the wake. If streamlines in the critical layer are open this steady state may be a predominantly inviscid one; if they are closed a steady state is possible only with non-zero dissipation. For both the unsteady and steady flows the translation allows the "logarithmic phase jump" across the critical layer, 4, to be non-zero and negative. Hence, even when the viscosity is vanishingly small, the critical layer can act as a strong "absorber" of Eliassen-Palm wave activity. Second, steady-state solutions are obtained numerically for a case when the velocity field in the critical layer is not independent of the vorticity distribution there. The interaction restricts the formation of closed streamlines, and an asymptotic open-streamline solution for large y can be found. The critical layer again acts an absorber of wave activity, but with decreasing e

Scaling up Corporate Social Investments in Education: Five Strategies That Work. Global Views. Policy Paper 2012-01

Science.gov (United States)

van Fleet, Justin W.

2012-01-01

Scaling up good corporate social investment practices in developing countries is crucial to realizing the "Education for All" and "Millennium Development Goals". Yet very few corporate social investments have the right mix of vision, financing, cross-sector engagement and leadership to come to scale. Globally, 67 million…

Preparing the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) for global retrospective air quality modeling

Science.gov (United States)

The US EPA has a plan to leverage recent advances in meteorological modeling to develop a "Next-Generation" air quality modeling system that will allow consistent modeling of problems from global to local scale. The meteorological model of choice is the Model for Predic...

Use of a hybrid code for global-scale plasma simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Swift, D.W.

1996-01-01

This paper presents a demonstration of the use of a hybrid code to model the Earth's magnetosphere on a global scale. The typical hybrid code calculates the interaction of fully kinetic ions and a massless electron fluid with the magnetic field. This code also includes a fluid ion component to approximate the cold ionospheric plasma that spatially overlaps with the discrete particle component. Other innovative features of the code include a numerically generated curvilinear coordinate system and subcycling of the magnetic field update to the particle push. These innovations allow the code to accommodate disparate time and distance scales. The demonstration is a simulation of the noon meridian plane of the magnetosphere. The code exhibits the formation of fast and slow-mode shocks and tearing reconnection at the magnetopause. New results include particle acceleration in the cusp and nearly field aligned currents linking the cusp and polar ionosphere. The paper also describes a density depletion instability and measures to avoid it. 27 refs., 4 figs

Global-scale combustion sources of organic aerosols: sensitivity to formation and removal mechanisms

Science.gov (United States)

Tsimpidi, Alexandra P.; Karydis, Vlassis A.; Pandis, Spyros N.; Lelieveld, Jos

2017-06-01

Organic compounds from combustion sources such as biomass burning and fossil fuel use are major contributors to the global atmospheric load of aerosols. We analyzed the sensitivity of model-predicted global-scale organic aerosols (OA) to parameters that control primary emissions, photochemical aging, and the scavenging efficiency of organic vapors. We used a computationally efficient module for the description of OA composition and evolution in the atmosphere (ORACLE) of the global chemistry-climate model EMAC (ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry). A global dataset of aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) measurements was used to evaluate simulated primary (POA) and secondary (SOA) OA concentrations. Model results are sensitive to the emission rates of intermediate-volatility organic compounds (IVOCs) and POA. Assuming enhanced reactivity of semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOCs) and IVOCs with OH substantially improved the model performance for SOA. The use of a hybrid approach for the parameterization of the aging of IVOCs had a small effect on predicted SOA levels. The model performance improved by assuming that freshly emitted organic compounds are relatively hydrophobic and become increasingly hygroscopic due to oxidation.

Three-pattern decomposition of global atmospheric circulation: part II—dynamical equations of horizontal, meridional and zonal circulations

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Shujuan; Cheng, Jianbo; Xu, Ming; Chou, Jifan

2018-04-01

The three-pattern decomposition of global atmospheric circulation (TPDGAC) partitions three-dimensional (3D) atmospheric circulation into horizontal, meridional and zonal components to study the 3D structures of global atmospheric circulation. This paper incorporates the three-pattern decomposition model (TPDM) into primitive equations of atmospheric dynamics and establishes a new set of dynamical equations of the horizontal, meridional and zonal circulations in which the operator properties are studied and energy conservation laws are preserved, as in the primitive equations. The physical significance of the newly established equations is demonstrated. Our findings reveal that the new equations are essentially the 3D vorticity equations of atmosphere and that the time evolution rules of the horizontal, meridional and zonal circulations can be described from the perspective of 3D vorticity evolution. The new set of dynamical equations includes decomposed expressions that can be used to explore the source terms of large-scale atmospheric circulation variations. A simplified model is presented to demonstrate the potential applications of the new equations for studying the dynamics of the Rossby, Hadley and Walker circulations. The model shows that the horizontal air temperature anomaly gradient (ATAG) induces changes in meridional and zonal circulations and promotes the baroclinic evolution of the horizontal circulation. The simplified model also indicates that the absolute vorticity of the horizontal circulation is not conserved, and its changes can be described by changes in the vertical vorticities of the meridional and zonal circulations. Moreover, the thermodynamic equation shows that the induced meridional and zonal circulations and advection transport by the horizontal circulation in turn cause a redistribution of the air temperature. The simplified model reveals the fundamental rules between the evolution of the air temperature and the horizontal, meridional

Global Burden of Disease of Mercury Used in Artisanal Small-Scale Gold Mining.

Science.gov (United States)

Steckling, Nadine; Tobollik, Myriam; Plass, Dietrich; Hornberg, Claudia; Ericson, Bret; Fuller, Richard; Bose-O'Reilly, Stephan

Artisanal small-scale gold mining (ASGM) is the world's largest anthropogenic source of mercury emission. Gold miners are highly exposed to metallic mercury and suffer occupational mercury intoxication. The global disease burden as a result of this exposure is largely unknown because the informal character of ASGM restricts the availability of reliable data. To estimate the prevalence of occupational mercury intoxication and the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to chronic metallic mercury vapor intoxication (CMMVI) among ASGM gold miners globally and in selected countries. Estimates of the number of artisanal small-scale gold (ASG) miners were extracted from reviews supplemented by a literature search. Prevalence of moderate CMMVI among miners was determined by compiling a dataset of available studies that assessed frequency of intoxication in gold miners using a standardized diagnostic tool and biomonitoring data on mercury in urine. Severe cases of CMMVI were not included because it was assumed that these persons can no longer be employed as miners. Cases in workers' families and communities were not considered. Years lived with disability as a result of CMMVI among ASG miners were quantified by multiplying the number of prevalent cases of CMMVI by the appropriate disability weight. No deaths are expected to result from CMMVI and therefore years of life lost were not calculated. Disease burden was calculated by multiplying the prevalence rate with the number of miners for each country and the disability weight. Sensitivity analyses were performed using different assumptions on the number of miners and the intoxication prevalence rate. Globally, 14-19 million workers are employed as ASG miners. Based on human biomonitoring data, between 25% and 33% of these miners-3.3-6.5 million miners globally-suffer from moderate CMMVI. The resulting global burden of disease is estimated to range from 1.22 (uncertainty interval [UI] 0.87-1.61) to 2.39 (UI 1

Influence of ENSO on coastal flood hazard and exposure at the global-scale

Science.gov (United States)

Muis, S.; Haigh, I. D.; Guimarães Nobre, G.; Aerts, J.; Ward, P.

2017-12-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant signal of interannual climate variability. The unusually warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the tropical Pacific drives interannual variability in both mean and extreme sea levels, which in turn may influence the probabilities and impacts of coastal flooding. We assess the influence of ENSO on coastal flood hazard and exposure using daily timeseries from the Global Time and Surge Reanalysis (GTSR) dataset (Muis et al., 2016). As the GTSR timeseries do not include steric effects (i.e. density differences), we improve the GTSR timeseries by adding steric sea levels. Evaluation against observed sea levels shows that the including steric sea levels leads to a much better representation of the seasonal and interannual variability. We show that sea level anomalies occur during ENSO years with higher sea levels during La Niña in the South-Atlantic, Indian Ocean and the West Pacific, whereas sea levels are lower in the east Pacific. The pattern is generally inversed for El Niño. We also find an effect of ENSO in the number of people exposed to coastal flooding. Although the effect is minor at the global-scale, it may be important for flood risk management to consider at the national or sub national levels. Previous studies at the global-scale have used tide gauge observation to assess the influence of ENSO on extreme sea levels. The advantage of our approach over observations is that GTSR provides a consistent dataset with a full global coverage for the period 1979-2014. This allows us to assess ENSO's influence on sea level extremes anywhere in the world. Furthermore, it enables us to also calculate the impacts of extreme sea levels in terms of coastal flooding and exposed population. ReferencesMuis et al (2016) A global reanalysis of storm surges and extreme sea levels. Nature Communications.7:11969. doi:10.1038/ncomms11969.

Spatial patterns and temporal dynamics of global scale climate-groundwater interactions

Science.gov (United States)

Cuthbert, M. O.; Gleeson, T. P.; Moosdorf, N.; Schneider, A. C.; Hartmann, J.; Befus, K. M.; Lehner, B.

2017-12-01

The interactions between groundwater and climate are important to resolve in both space and time as they influence mass and energy transfers at Earth's land surface. Despite the significance of these processes, little is known about the spatio-temporal distribution of such interactions globally, and many large-scale climate, hydrological and land surface models oversimplify groundwater or exclude it completely. In this study we bring together diverse global geomatic data sets to map spatial patterns in the sensitivity and degree of connectedness between the water table and the land surface, and use the output from a global groundwater model to assess the locations where the lateral import or export of groundwater is significant. We also quantify the groundwater response time, the characteristic time for groundwater systems to respond to a change in boundary conditions, and map its distribution globally to assess the likely dynamics of groundwater's interaction with climate. We find that more than half of the global land surface significantly exports or imports groundwater laterally. Nearly 40% of Earth's landmass has water tables that are strongly coupled to topography with water tables shallow enough to enable a bi-directional exchange of moisture with the climate system. However, only a small proportion (around 12%) of such regions have groundwater response times of 100 years or less and have groundwater fluxes that would significantly respond to rapid environmental changes over this timescale. We last explore fundamental relationships between aridity, groundwater response times and groundwater turnover times. Our results have wide ranging implications for understanding and modelling changes in Earth's water and energy balance and for informing robust future water management and security decisions.

Can We Use Regression Modeling to Quantify Mean Annual Streamflow at a Global-Scale?

Science.gov (United States)

Barbarossa, V.; Huijbregts, M. A. J.; Hendriks, J. A.; Beusen, A.; Clavreul, J.; King, H.; Schipper, A.

2016-12-01

Quantifying mean annual flow of rivers (MAF) at ungauged sites is essential for a number of applications, including assessments of global water supply, ecosystem integrity and water footprints. MAF can be quantified with spatially explicit process-based models, which might be overly time-consuming and data-intensive for this purpose, or with empirical regression models that predict MAF based on climate and catchment characteristics. Yet, regression models have mostly been developed at a regional scale and the extent to which they can be extrapolated to other regions is not known. In this study, we developed a global-scale regression model for MAF using observations of discharge and catchment characteristics from 1,885 catchments worldwide, ranging from 2 to 106 km2 in size. In addition, we compared the performance of the regression model with the predictive ability of the spatially explicit global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB [van Beek et al., 2011] by comparing results from both models to independent measurements. We obtained a regression model explaining 89% of the variance in MAF based on catchment area, mean annual precipitation and air temperature, average slope and elevation. The regression model performed better than PCR-GLOBWB for the prediction of MAF, as root-mean-square error values were lower (0.29 - 0.38 compared to 0.49 - 0.57) and the modified index of agreement was higher (0.80 - 0.83 compared to 0.72 - 0.75). Our regression model can be applied globally at any point of the river network, provided that the input parameters are within the range of values employed in the calibration of the model. The performance is reduced for water scarce regions and further research should focus on improving such an aspect for regression-based global hydrological models.

Agricultural insecticides threaten surface waters at the global scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Stehle, Sebastian; Schulz, Ralf

2015-05-05

Compared with nutrient levels and habitat degradation, the importance of agricultural pesticides in surface water may have been underestimated due to a lack of comprehensive quantitative analysis. Increasing pesticide contamination results in decreasing regional aquatic biodiversity, i.e., macroinvertebrate family richness is reduced by ∼30% at pesticide concentrations equaling the legally accepted regulatory threshold levels (RTLs). This study provides a comprehensive metaanalysis of 838 peer-reviewed studies (>2,500 sites in 73 countries) that evaluates, for the first time to our knowledge on a global scale, the exposure of surface waters to particularly toxic agricultural insecticides. We tested whether measured insecticide concentrations (MICs; i.e., quantified insecticide concentrations) exceed their RTLs and how risks depend on insecticide development over time and stringency of environmental regulation. Our analysis reveals that MICs occur rarely (i.e., an estimated 97.4% of analyses conducted found no MICs) and there is a complete lack of scientific monitoring data for ∼90% of global cropland. Most importantly, of the 11,300 MICs, 52.4% (5,915 cases; 68.5% of the sites) exceeded the RTL for either surface water (RTLSW) or sediments. Thus, the biological integrity of global water resources is at a substantial risk. RTLSW exceedances depend on the catchment size, sampling regime, and sampling date; are significantly higher for newer-generation insecticides (i.e., pyrethroids); and are high even in countries with stringent environmental regulations. These results suggest the need for worldwide improvements to current pesticide regulations and agricultural pesticide application practices and for intensified research efforts on the presence and effects of pesticides under real-world conditions.

Global-scale high-resolution ( 1 km) modelling of mean, maximum and minimum annual streamflow

Science.gov (United States)

Barbarossa, Valerio; Huijbregts, Mark; Hendriks, Jan; Beusen, Arthur; Clavreul, Julie; King, Henry; Schipper, Aafke

2017-04-01

Quantifying mean, maximum and minimum annual flow (AF) of rivers at ungauged sites is essential for a number of applications, including assessments of global water supply, ecosystem integrity and water footprints. AF metrics can be quantified with spatially explicit process-based models, which might be overly time-consuming and data-intensive for this purpose, or with empirical regression models that predict AF metrics based on climate and catchment characteristics. Yet, so far, regression models have mostly been developed at a regional scale and the extent to which they can be extrapolated to other regions is not known. We developed global-scale regression models that quantify mean, maximum and minimum AF as function of catchment area and catchment-averaged slope, elevation, and mean, maximum and minimum annual precipitation and air temperature. We then used these models to obtain global 30 arc-seconds (˜ 1 km) maps of mean, maximum and minimum AF for each year from 1960 through 2015, based on a newly developed hydrologically conditioned digital elevation model. We calibrated our regression models based on observations of discharge and catchment characteristics from about 4,000 catchments worldwide, ranging from 100 to 106 km2 in size, and validated them against independent measurements as well as the output of a number of process-based global hydrological models (GHMs). The variance explained by our regression models ranged up to 90% and the performance of the models compared well with the performance of existing GHMs. Yet, our AF maps provide a level of spatial detail that cannot yet be achieved by current GHMs.

Global asymptotic stabilization of large-scale hydraulic networks using positive proportional controls

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Tom Nørgaard; Wisniewski, Rafal

2014-01-01

An industrial case study involving a large-scale hydraulic network underlying a district heating system subject to structural changes is considered. The problem of controlling the pressure drop across the so-called end-user valves in the network to a designated vector of reference values under...... directional actuator constraints is addressed. The proposed solution consists of a set of decentralized positively constrained proportional control actions. The results show that the closed-loop system always has a globally asymptotically stable equilibrium point independently on the number of end......-users. Furthermore, by a proper design of controller gains the closed-loop equilibrium point can be designed to belong to an arbitrarily small neighborhood of the desired equilibrium point. Since there exists a globally asymptotically stable equilibrium point independently on the number of end-users in the system...

Sensitivity of Water Scarcity Events to ENSO-Driven Climate Variability at the Global Scale

Science.gov (United States)

Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Eisner, S.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

2015-01-01

Globally, freshwater shortage is one of the most dangerous risks for society. Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have aggravated water scarcity over the past decades. A wide range of studies show that water scarcity will intensify in the future, as a result of both increased consumptive water use and, in some regions, climate change. Although it is well-known that El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects patterns of precipitation and drought at global and regional scales, little attention has yet been paid to the impacts of climate variability on water scarcity conditions, despite its importance for adaptation planning. Therefore, we present the first global-scale sensitivity assessment of water scarcity to ENSO, the most dominant signal of climate variability. We show that over the time period 1961-2010, both water availability and water scarcity conditions are significantly correlated with ENSO-driven climate variability over a large proportion of the global land area (> 28.1 %); an area inhabited by more than 31.4% of the global population. We also found, however, that climate variability alone is often not enough to trigger the actual incidence of water scarcity events. The sensitivity of a region to water scarcity events, expressed in terms of land area or population exposed, is determined by both hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Currently, the population actually impacted by water scarcity events consists of 39.6% (CTA: consumption-to-availability ratio) and 41.1% (WCI: water crowding index) of the global population, whilst only 11.4% (CTA) and 15.9% (WCI) of the global population is at the same time living in areas sensitive to ENSO-driven climate variability. These results are contrasted, however, by differences in growth rates found under changing socioeconomic conditions, which are relatively high in regions exposed to water scarcity events. Given the correlations found between ENSO and water availability and scarcity

Bioremediation at a global scale: from the test tube to planet Earth

OpenAIRE

de Lorenzo, V?ctor; Marli?re, Philippe; Sol?, Ricard

2016-01-01

Summary Planet Earth's biosphere has evolved over billions of years as a balanced bio?geological system ultimately sustained by sunpower and the large?scale cycling of elements largely run by the global environmental microbiome. Humans have been part of this picture for much of their existence. But the industrial revolution started in the XIX century and the subsequent advances in medicine, chemistry, agriculture and communications have impacted such balances to an unprecedented degree ? and ...

Large-scale distribution patterns of mangrove nematodes: A global meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Brustolin, Marco C; Nagelkerken, Ivan; Fonseca, Gustavo

2018-05-01

Mangroves harbor diverse invertebrate communities, suggesting that macroecological distribution patterns of habitat-forming foundation species drive the associated faunal distribution. Whether these are driven by mangrove biogeography is still ambiguous. For small-bodied taxa, local factors and landscape metrics might be as important as macroecology. We performed a meta-analysis to address the following questions: (1) can richness of mangrove trees explain macroecological patterns of nematode richness? and (2) do local landscape attributes have equal or higher importance than biogeography in structuring nematode richness? Mangrove areas of Caribbean-Southwest Atlantic, Western Indian, Central Indo-Pacific, and Southwest Pacific biogeographic regions. We used random-effects meta-analyses based on natural logarithm of the response ratio (lnRR) to assess the importance of macroecology (i.e., biogeographic regions, latitude, longitude), local factors (i.e., aboveground mangrove biomass and tree richness), and landscape metrics (forest area and shape) in structuring nematode richness from 34 mangroves sites around the world. Latitude, mangrove forest area, and forest shape index explained 19% of the heterogeneity across studies. Richness was higher at low latitudes, closer to the equator. At local scales, richness increased slightly with landscape complexity and decreased with forest shape index. Our results contrast with biogeographic diversity patterns of mangrove-associated taxa. Global-scale nematode diversity may have evolved independently of mangrove tree richness, and diversity of small-bodied metazoans is probably more closely driven by latitude and associated climates, rather than local, landscape, or global biogeographic patterns.

Psychometric properties of the Portuguese version of the Global Transformational Leadership (GTL scale

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Patrícia van Beveren

2017-07-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study is to adapt and consequently validate theGlobal Transformational Leadershipmeasuring scale (GTL. The scale was therefore applied to a sample of 456 members of 70 work groups, belonging to 26 organizations. The factorial structure of the scale was analysed through the exploratory factor analysis (EFA and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA, with the sample being split in two equal parts: EFA was conducted in both sub-samples and CFA was applied in the second sub-sample. The internal consistency was evaluated via Cronbach's alpha and the nomological validity was analysed via the evaluation of the GTL's correlations with both team-level autonomy and quality of group experience. The results revealed the presence of a unidimensional scale with a good level of internal consistency. Regarding the nomological validity, the results pointed to hypothetical relations, since the GTL showed positive correlations with the variables considered. Thus, the Portuguese version of the GTL is presented as a useful instrument for evaluating transformational leadership.

Global multi-scale segmentation of continental and coastal waters from the watersheds to the continental margins

KAUST Repository

Laruelle, G. G.; Dü rr, H. H.; Lauerwald, R.; Hartmann, J.; Slomp, C. P.; Goossens, N.; Regnier, P. A. G.

2013-01-01

Past characterizations of the land-ocean continuum were constructed either from a continental perspective through an analysis of watershed river basin properties (COSCATs: COastal Segmentation and related CATchments) or from an oceanic perspective, through a regionalization of the proximal and distal continental margins (LMEs: large marine ecosystems). Here, we present a global-scale coastal segmentation, composed of three consistent levels, that includes the whole aquatic continuum with its riverine, estuarine and shelf sea components. Our work delineates comprehensive ensembles by harmonizing previous segmentations and typologies in order to retain the most important physical characteristics of both the land and shelf areas. The proposed multi-scale segmentation results in a distribution of global exorheic watersheds, estuaries and continental shelf seas among 45 major zones (MARCATS: MARgins and CATchments Segmentation) and 149 sub-units (COSCATs). Geographic and hydrologic parameters such as the surface area, volume and freshwater residence time are calculated for each coastal unit as well as different hypsometric profiles. Our analysis provides detailed insights into the distributions of coastal and continental shelf areas and how they connect with incoming riverine fluxes. The segmentation is also used to re-evaluate the global estuarine CO2 flux at the air-water interface combining global and regional average emission rates derived from local studies. © 2013 Author(s).

Global multi-scale segmentation of continental and coastal waters from the watersheds to the continental margins

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. G. Laruelle

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Past characterizations of the land–ocean continuum were constructed either from a continental perspective through an analysis of watershed river basin properties (COSCATs: COastal Segmentation and related CATchments or from an oceanic perspective, through a regionalization of the proximal and distal continental margins (LMEs: large marine ecosystems. Here, we present a global-scale coastal segmentation, composed of three consistent levels, that includes the whole aquatic continuum with its riverine, estuarine and shelf sea components. Our work delineates comprehensive ensembles by harmonizing previous segmentations and typologies in order to retain the most important physical characteristics of both the land and shelf areas. The proposed multi-scale segmentation results in a distribution of global exorheic watersheds, estuaries and continental shelf seas among 45 major zones (MARCATS: MARgins and CATchments Segmentation and 149 sub-units (COSCATs. Geographic and hydrologic parameters such as the surface area, volume and freshwater residence time are calculated for each coastal unit as well as different hypsometric profiles. Our analysis provides detailed insights into the distributions of coastal and continental shelf areas and how they connect with incoming riverine fluxes. The segmentation is also used to re-evaluate the global estuarine CO2 flux at the air–water interface combining global and regional average emission rates derived from local studies.

Global multi-scale segmentation of continental and coastal waters from the watersheds to the continental margins

KAUST Repository

Laruelle, G. G.

2012-10-04

Past characterizations of the land–ocean continuum were constructed either from a continental perspective through an analysis of watershed river basin properties (COSCATs: COastal Segmentation and related CATchments) or from an oceanic perspective, through a regionalization of the proximal and distal continental margins (LMEs: large marine ecosystems). Here, we present a global-scale coastal segmentation, composed of three consistent levels, that includes the whole aquatic continuum with its riverine, estuarine and shelf sea components. Our work delineates comprehensive ensembles by harmonizing previous segmentations and typologies in order to retain the most important physical characteristics of both the land and shelf areas. The proposed multi-scale segmentation results in a distribution of global exorheic watersheds, estuaries and continental shelf seas among 45 major zones (MARCATS: MARgins and CATchments Segmentation) and 149 sub-units (COSCATs). Geographic and hydrologic parameters such as the surface area, volume and freshwater residence time are calculated for each coastal unit as well as different hypsometric pro- files. Our analysis provides detailed insights into the distributions of coastal and continental shelf areas and how they connect with incoming riverine fluxes. The segmentation is also used to re-evaluate the global estuarine CO2 flux at the air–water interface combining global and regional average emission rates derived from local studies.

Global multi-scale segmentation of continental and coastal waters from the watersheds to the continental margins

KAUST Repository

Laruelle, G. G.

2013-05-29

Past characterizations of the land-ocean continuum were constructed either from a continental perspective through an analysis of watershed river basin properties (COSCATs: COastal Segmentation and related CATchments) or from an oceanic perspective, through a regionalization of the proximal and distal continental margins (LMEs: large marine ecosystems). Here, we present a global-scale coastal segmentation, composed of three consistent levels, that includes the whole aquatic continuum with its riverine, estuarine and shelf sea components. Our work delineates comprehensive ensembles by harmonizing previous segmentations and typologies in order to retain the most important physical characteristics of both the land and shelf areas. The proposed multi-scale segmentation results in a distribution of global exorheic watersheds, estuaries and continental shelf seas among 45 major zones (MARCATS: MARgins and CATchments Segmentation) and 149 sub-units (COSCATs). Geographic and hydrologic parameters such as the surface area, volume and freshwater residence time are calculated for each coastal unit as well as different hypsometric profiles. Our analysis provides detailed insights into the distributions of coastal and continental shelf areas and how they connect with incoming riverine fluxes. The segmentation is also used to re-evaluate the global estuarine CO2 flux at the air-water interface combining global and regional average emission rates derived from local studies. © 2013 Author(s).

Global Precipitation Analyses at Time Scales of Monthly to 3-Hourly

Science.gov (United States)

Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George; Curtis, Scott; Bolvin, David; Nelkin, Eric; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Global precipitation analysis covering the last few decades and the impact of the new TRMM precipitation observations are discussed. The 20+ year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to explore global and regional variations and trends and is compared to the much shorter TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) tropical data set. The GPCP data set shows no significant trend in precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. Regional trends are also analyzed. A trend pattern that is a combination of both El Nino and La Nina precipitation features is evident in the Goodyear data set. This pattern is related to an increase with time in the number of combined months of El Nino and La Nina during the Goodyear period. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENRON variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The GPCP daily, 1 degree latitude-longitude analysis, which is available from January 1997 to the present is described and the evolution of precipitation patterns on this time scale related to El Nino and La Nina is described. Finally, a TRMM-based Based analysis is described that uses TRMM to calibrate polar-orbit microwave observations from SSM/I and geosynchronous OR observations and merges the various calibrated observations into a final, Baehr resolution map. This TRMM standard product will be available for the entire TRMM period (January Represent). A real-time version of this merged product is being produced and is available at 0.25 degree latitude-longitude resolution over the latitude range from 50 deg. N -50 deg. S. Examples will be shown, including its use in monitoring flood conditions.

Modification of the Clinical Global Impressions (CGI) Scale for use in bipolar illness (BP): the CGI-BP.

Science.gov (United States)

Spearing, M K; Post, R M; Leverich, G S; Brandt, D; Nolen, W

1997-12-05

The Clinical Global Impressions Scale (CGI) was modified specifically for use in assessing global illness severity and change in patients with bipolar disorder. Criticisms of the original CGI were addressed by correcting inconsistencies in scaling, identifying time frames for comparison, clarifying definitions of illness severity and change, and separating out assessment of treatment side effects from illness improvement during treatment. A Detailed User's Guide was developed to train clinicians in the use of the new CGI-Bipolar Version (CGI-BP) for rating severity of manic and depressive episodes and the degree of change from the immediately preceding phase and from the worst phase of illness. The revised scale and manual provide a focused set of instructions to facilitate the reliability of these ratings of mania, depression, and overall bipolar illness during treatment of an acute episode or in longer-term illness prophylaxis. Interrater reliability of the scale was demonstrated in preliminary analyses. Thus, the modified CGI-BP is anticipated to be more useful than the original CGI in studies of bipolar disorder.

Existence and global exponential stability of periodic solutions for n-dimensional neutral dynamic equations on time scales.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Bing; Li, Yongkun; Zhang, Xuemei

2016-01-01

In this paper, by using the existence of the exponential dichotomy of linear dynamic equations on time scales and the theory of calculus on time scales, we study the existence and global exponential stability of periodic solutions for a class of n-dimensional neutral dynamic equations on time scales. We also present an example to illustrate the feasibility of our results. The results of this paper are completely new and complementary to the previously known results even in both the case of differential equations (time scale [Formula: see text]) and the case of difference equations (time scale [Formula: see text]).

Leaf optical properties shed light on foliar trait variability at individual to global scales

Science.gov (United States)

Shiklomanov, A. N.; Serbin, S.; Dietze, M.

2017-12-01

Recent syntheses of large trait databases have contributed immensely to our understanding of drivers of plant function at the global scale. However, the global trade-offs revealed by such syntheses, such as the trade-off between leaf productivity and resilience (i.e. "leaf economics spectrum"), are often absent at smaller scales and fail to correlate with actual functional limitations. An improved understanding of how traits vary among communities, species, and individuals is critical to accurate representations of vegetation ecophysiology and ecological dynamics in ecosystem models. Spectral data from both field observations and remote sensing platforms present a rich and widely available source of information on plant traits. Here, we apply Bayesian inversion of the PROSPECT leaf radiative transfer model to a large global database of over 60,000 field spectra and plant traits to (1) comprehensively assess the accuracy of leaf trait estimation using PROSPECT spectral inversion; (2) investigate the correlations between optical traits estimable from PROSPECT and other important foliar traits such as nitrogen and lignin concentrations; and (3) identify dominant sources of variability and characterize trade-offs in optical and non-optical foliar traits. Our work provides a key methodological contribution by validating physically-based retrieval of plant traits from remote sensing observations, and provides insights about trait trade-offs related to plant acclimation, adaptation, and community assembly.

Modeling urbanization patterns at a global scale with generative adversarial networks

Science.gov (United States)

Albert, A. T.; Strano, E.; Gonzalez, M.

2017-12-01

Current demographic projections show that, in the next 30 years, global population growth will mostly take place in developing countries. Coupled with a decrease in density, such population growth could potentially double the land occupied by settlements by 2050. The lack of reliable and globally consistent socio-demographic data, coupled with the limited predictive performance underlying traditional urban spatial explicit models, call for developing better predictive methods, calibrated using a globally-consistent dataset. Thus, richer models of the spatial interplay between the urban built-up land, population distribution and energy use are central to the discussion around the expansion and development of cities, and their impact on the environment in the context of a changing climate. In this talk we discuss methods for, and present an analysis of, urban form, defined as the spatial distribution of macroeconomic quantities that characterize a city, using modern machine learning methods and best-available remote-sensing data for the world's largest 25,000 cities. We first show that these cities may be described by a small set of patterns in radial building density, nighttime luminosity, and population density, which highlight, to first order, differences in development and land use across the world. We observe significant, spatially-dependent variance around these typical patterns, which would be difficult to model using traditional statistical methods. We take a first step in addressing this challenge by developing CityGAN, a conditional generative adversarial network model for simulating realistic urban forms. To guide learning and measure the quality of the simulated synthetic cities, we develop a specialized loss function for GAN optimization that incorporates standard spatial statistics used by urban analysis experts. Our framework is a stark departure from both the standard physics-based approaches in the literature (that view urban forms as fractals with a

Free Global Dsm Assessment on Large Scale Areas Exploiting the Potentialities of the Innovative Google Earth Engine Platform

Science.gov (United States)

Nascetti, A.; Di Rita, M.; Ravanelli, R.; Amicuzi, M.; Esposito, S.; Crespi, M.

2017-05-01

The high-performance cloud-computing platform Google Earth Engine has been developed for global-scale analysis based on the Earth observation data. In particular, in this work, the geometric accuracy of the two most used nearly-global free DSMs (SRTM and ASTER) has been evaluated on the territories of four American States (Colorado, Michigan, Nevada, Utah) and one Italian Region (Trentino Alto- Adige, Northern Italy) exploiting the potentiality of this platform. These are large areas characterized by different terrain morphology, land covers and slopes. The assessment has been performed using two different reference DSMs: the USGS National Elevation Dataset (NED) and a LiDAR acquisition. The DSMs accuracy has been evaluated through computation of standard statistic parameters, both at global scale (considering the whole State/Region) and in function of the terrain morphology using several slope classes. The geometric accuracy in terms of Standard deviation and NMAD, for SRTM range from 2-3 meters in the first slope class to about 45 meters in the last one, whereas for ASTER, the values range from 5-6 to 30 meters. In general, the performed analysis shows a better accuracy for the SRTM in the flat areas whereas the ASTER GDEM is more reliable in the steep areas, where the slopes increase. These preliminary results highlight the GEE potentialities to perform DSM assessment on a global scale.

FREE GLOBAL DSM ASSESSMENT ON LARGE SCALE AREAS EXPLOITING THE POTENTIALITIES OF THE INNOVATIVE GOOGLE EARTH ENGINE PLATFORM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Nascetti

2017-05-01

Full Text Available The high-performance cloud-computing platform Google Earth Engine has been developed for global-scale analysis based on the Earth observation data. In particular, in this work, the geometric accuracy of the two most used nearly-global free DSMs (SRTM and ASTER has been evaluated on the territories of four American States (Colorado, Michigan, Nevada, Utah and one Italian Region (Trentino Alto- Adige, Northern Italy exploiting the potentiality of this platform. These are large areas characterized by different terrain morphology, land covers and slopes. The assessment has been performed using two different reference DSMs: the USGS National Elevation Dataset (NED and a LiDAR acquisition. The DSMs accuracy has been evaluated through computation of standard statistic parameters, both at global scale (considering the whole State/Region and in function of the terrain morphology using several slope classes. The geometric accuracy in terms of Standard deviation and NMAD, for SRTM range from 2-3 meters in the first slope class to about 45 meters in the last one, whereas for ASTER, the values range from 5-6 to 30 meters. In general, the performed analysis shows a better accuracy for the SRTM in the flat areas whereas the ASTER GDEM is more reliable in the steep areas, where the slopes increase. These preliminary results highlight the GEE potentialities to perform DSM assessment on a global scale.

Power spectral density and scaling exponent of high frequency global solar radiation sequences

Science.gov (United States)

Calif, Rudy; Schmitt, François G.; Huang, Yongxiang

2013-04-01

The part of the solar power production from photovlotaïcs systems is constantly increasing in the electric grids. Solar energy converter devices such as photovoltaic cells are very sensitive to instantaneous solar radiation fluctuations. Thus rapid variation of solar radiation due to changes in the local meteorological condition can induce large amplitude fluctuations of the produced electrical power and reduce the overall efficiency of the system. When large amount of photovoltaic electricity is send into a weak or small electricity network such as island network, the electric grid security can be in jeopardy due to these power fluctuations. The integration of this energy in the electrical network remains a major challenge, due to the high variability of solar radiation in time and space. To palliate these difficulties, it is essential to identify the characteristic of these fluctuations in order to anticipate the eventuality of power shortage or power surge. The objective of this study is to present an approach based on Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT) to highlight the scaling properties of global solar irradiance data G(t). The scale of invariance is detected on this dataset using the Empirical Mode Decomposition in association with arbitrary-order Hilbert spectral analysis, a generalization of (HHT) or Hilbert Spectral Analysis (HSA). The first step is the EMD, consists in decomposing the normalized global solar radiation data G'(t) into several Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMF) Ci(t) without giving an a priori basis. Consequently, the normalized original solar radiation sequence G'(t) can be written as a sum of Ci(t) with a residual rn. From all IMF modes, a joint PDF P(f,A) of locally and instantaneous frequency f and amplitude A, is estimated. To characterize the scaling behavior in amplitude-frequency space, an arbitrary-order Hilbert marginal spectrum is defined to: Iq(f) = 0 P (f,A)A dA (1) with q × 0 In case of scale

Phosphorus in agricultural soils: drivers of its distribution at the global scale

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ringeval, Bruno [ISPA, Villenave d' Ornon (France); Augusto, Laurent [ISPA, Villenave d' Ornon (France); Monod, Herve [Univ. Paris-Saclay, Jouy-en-Josas (France); van Apeldoorn, Dirk [Utrecht Univ., Utrecht (The Netherlands); Bouwman, Lex [Utrecht Univ., Utrecht (The Netherlands); Yang, Xiaojuan [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Achat, David L. [ISPA, Villenave d' Ornon (France); Chini, Louise P. [Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Van Oost, Kristof [Univ. Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium); Guenet, Bertrand [Univ. Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Wang, Rong [Univ. Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Peking Univ., Beijing (China); Decharme, Bertrand [CNRS/Meteo-France, Toulouse (France); Nesme, Thomas [ISPA, Villenave d' Ornon (France); Pellerin, Sylvain [ISPA, Villenave d' Ornon (France)

2017-01-09

Phosphorus (P) availability in soils limits crop yields in many regions of the world, while excess of soil P triggers aquatic eutrophication in other regions. Numerous processes drive the global spatial distribution of P in agricultural soils, but their relative roles remain unclear. Here, we combined several global datasets describing these drivers with a soil P dynamics model to simulate the distribution of P in agricultural soils and to assess the contributions of the different drivers at the global scale. We analyzed both the labile inorganic P (P_ILAB), a proxy of the pool involved in plant nutrition and the total soil P (P_TOT). We found that the soil biogeochemical background (BIOG) and farming practices (FARM) were the main drivers of the spatial variability in cropland soil P content but that their contribution varied between P_TOT vs P_ILAB. Indeed, 97% of the P_TOT spatial variability could be explained by BIOG, while BIOG and FARM explained 41% and 58% of P_ILAB spatial variability, respectively. Other drivers such as climate, soil erosion, atmospheric P deposition and soil buffering capacity made only very small contribution. Lastly, our study is a promising approach to investigate the potential effect of P as a limiting factor for agricultural ecosystems and for global food production. Additionally, we quantified the anthropogenic perturbation of P cycle and demonstrated how the different drivers are combined to explain the global distribution of agricultural soil P.

Unsupervised Video Shot Detection Using Clustering Ensemble with a Color Global Scale-Invariant Feature Transform Descriptor

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuchou Chang

2008-02-01

Full Text Available Scale-invariant feature transform (SIFT transforms a grayscale image into scale-invariant coordinates of local features that are invariant to image scale, rotation, and changing viewpoints. Because of its scale-invariant properties, SIFT has been successfully used for object recognition and content-based image retrieval. The biggest drawback of SIFT is that it uses only grayscale information and misses important visual information regarding color. In this paper, we present the development of a novel color feature extraction algorithm that addresses this problem, and we also propose a new clustering strategy using clustering ensembles for video shot detection. Based on Fibonacci lattice-quantization, we develop a novel color global scale-invariant feature transform (CGSIFT for better description of color contents in video frames for video shot detection. CGSIFT first quantizes a color image, representing it with a small number of color indices, and then uses SIFT to extract features from the quantized color index image. We also develop a new space description method using small image regions to represent global color features as the second step of CGSIFT. Clustering ensembles focusing on knowledge reuse are then applied to obtain better clustering results than using single clustering methods for video shot detection. Evaluation of the proposed feature extraction algorithm and the new clustering strategy using clustering ensembles reveals very promising results for video shot detection.

Unsupervised Video Shot Detection Using Clustering Ensemble with a Color Global Scale-Invariant Feature Transform Descriptor

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hong Yi

2008-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Scale-invariant feature transform (SIFT transforms a grayscale image into scale-invariant coordinates of local features that are invariant to image scale, rotation, and changing viewpoints. Because of its scale-invariant properties, SIFT has been successfully used for object recognition and content-based image retrieval. The biggest drawback of SIFT is that it uses only grayscale information and misses important visual information regarding color. In this paper, we present the development of a novel color feature extraction algorithm that addresses this problem, and we also propose a new clustering strategy using clustering ensembles for video shot detection. Based on Fibonacci lattice-quantization, we develop a novel color global scale-invariant feature transform (CGSIFT for better description of color contents in video frames for video shot detection. CGSIFT first quantizes a color image, representing it with a small number of color indices, and then uses SIFT to extract features from the quantized color index image. We also develop a new space description method using small image regions to represent global color features as the second step of CGSIFT. Clustering ensembles focusing on knowledge reuse are then applied to obtain better clustering results than using single clustering methods for video shot detection. Evaluation of the proposed feature extraction algorithm and the new clustering strategy using clustering ensembles reveals very promising results for video shot detection.

Development and validation of a new global well-being outcomes rating scale for integrative medicine research

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bell Iris R

2004-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Researchers are finding limitations of currently available disease-focused questionnaire tools for outcome studies in complementary and alternative medicine/integrative medicine (CAM/IM. Methods Three substudies investigated the new one-item visual analogue Arizona Integrative Outcomes Scale (AIOS, which assesses self-rated global sense of spiritual, social, mental, emotional, and physical well-being over the past 24 hours and the past month. The first study tested the scale's ability to discriminate unhealthy individuals (n = 50 from healthy individuals (n = 50 in a rehabilitation outpatient clinic sample. The second study examined the concurrent validity of the AIOS by comparing ratings of global well-being to degree of psychological distress as measured by the Brief Symptom Inventory (BSI in undergraduate college students (N = 458. The third study evaluated the relationships between the AIOS and positively- and negatively-valenced tools (Positive and Negative Affect Scale and the Positive States of Mind Scale in a different sample of undergraduate students (N = 62. Results Substudy (i Rehabilitation patients scored significantly lower than the healthy controls on both forms of the AIOS and a current global health rating. The AIOS 24-hours correlated moderately and significantly with global health (patients r = 0.50; controls r = 0.45. AIOS 1-month correlations with global health were stronger within the controls (patients r = 0.36; controls r = 0.50. Controls (r = 0.64 had a higher correlation between the AIOS 24-hour and 1-month forms than did the patients (r = 0.33, which is consistent with the presumptive improvement in the patients' condition over the previous 30 days in rehabilitation. Substudy (ii In undergraduate students, AIOS scores were inversely related to distress ratings, as measured by the global severity index on the BSI (rAIOS24h = -0.42, rAIOS1month = -0.40. Substudy (iii AIOS scores were significantly

How to scale SaaS business  from local to global markets? : Case of ad servers

OpenAIRE

PANDERS, TOMS

2014-01-01

This thesis will describe SaaS (Software as a Service) business in a global environment. The prior focus will be to give suggestions of models and good examples of how to scale local business into global markets. The necessary theoretical framework on software product and scalability issues is given. Qualitative research is carried out to find out how the suggested models are adopted among selected ad serving companies. The results from three different companies were analyzed to find similari...

The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service: facilitating the prediction of air quality from global to local scales

Science.gov (United States)

Engelen, R. J.; Peuch, V. H.

2017-12-01

The European Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) operationally provides daily forecasts of global atmospheric composition and regional air quality. The global forecasting system is using ECMWF's Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), which is used for numerical weather prediction and which has been extended with modules for atmospheric chemistry, aerosols and greenhouse gases. The regional forecasts are produced by an ensemble of seven operational European air quality models that take their boundary conditions from the global system and provide an ensemble median with ensemble spread as their main output. Both the global and regional forecasting systems are feeding their output into air quality models on a variety of scales in various parts of the world. We will introduce the CAMS service chain and provide illustrations of its use in downstream applications. Both the usage of the daily forecasts and the usage of global and regional reanalyses will be addressed.

The global land rush: what the evidence reveals about scale and geography

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cotula, Lorenzo; Polack, Emily

2012-04-15

In developing countries, millions of people depend on land for their food and livelihoods. But a global 'land rush' — moves to acquire large tracts of land across the world — is increasing competition for this vital resource. A growing body of evidence points to the scale, geography, players and key characteristics of the phenomenon. Some of this is based on media reports and some on country level inventories. Much of the data cannot be compared due to variations in methodology, timescale and the differing criteria for what makes a land deal. Further improving data and analysis is critical. But while exact numbers will keep changing, all evidence indicates that land acquisitions are happening quickly and on a large scale. So we urgently need to get on with developing appropriate responses.

Scaling-up treatment of depression and anxiety: a global return on investment analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Chisholm, Dan; Sweeny, Kim; Sheehan, Peter; Rasmussen, Bruce; Smit, Filip; Cuijpers, Pim; Saxena, Shekhar

2016-05-01

Depression and anxiety disorders are highly prevalent and disabling disorders, which result not only in an enormous amount of human misery and lost health, but also lost economic output. Here we propose a global investment case for a scaled-up response to the public health and economic burden of depression and anxiety disorders. In this global return on investment analysis, we used the mental health module of the OneHealth tool to calculate treatment costs and health outcomes in 36 countries between 2016 and 2030. We assumed a linear increase in treatment coverage. We factored in a modest improvement of 5% in both the ability to work and productivity at work as a result of treatment, subsequently mapped to the prevailing rates of labour participation and gross domestic product (GDP) per worker in each country. The net present value of investment needed over the period 2016-30 to substantially scale up effective treatment coverage for depression and anxiety disorders is estimated to be US$147 billion. The expected returns to this investment are also substantial. In terms of health impact, scaled-up treatment leads to 43 million extra years of healthy life over the scale-up period. Placing an economic value on these healthy life-years produces a net present value of $310 billion. As well as these intrinsic benefits associated with improved health, scaled-up treatment of common mental disorders also leads to large economic productivity gains (a net present value of $230 billion for scaled-up depression treatment and $169 billion for anxiety disorders). Across country income groups, resulting benefit to cost ratios amount to 2·3-3·0 to 1 when economic benefits only are considered, and 3·3-5·7 to 1 when the value of health returns is also included. Return on investment analysis of the kind reported here can contribute strongly to a balanced investment case for enhanced action to address the large and growing burden of common mental disorders worldwide. Grand

AgMIP 1.5°C Assessment: Mitigation and Adaptation at Coordinated Global and Regional Scales

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenzweig, C.

2016-12-01

The AgMIP 1.5°C Coordinated Global and Regional Integrated Assessments of Climate Change and Food Security (AgMIP 1.5 CGRA) is linking site-based crop and livestock models with similar models run on global grids, and then links these biophysical components with economics models and nutrition metrics at regional and global scales. The AgMIP 1.5 CGRA assessment brings together experts in climate, crop, livestock, economics, nutrition, and food security to define the 1.5°C Protocols and guide the process throughout the assessment. Scenarios are designed to consistently combine elements of intertwined storylines of future society including socioeconomic development (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways), greenhouse gas concentrations (Representative Concentration Pathways), and specific pathways of agricultural sector development (Representative Agricultural Pathways). Shared Climate Policy Assumptions will be extended to provide additional agricultural detail on mitigation and adaptation strategies. The multi-model, multi-disciplinary, multi-scale integrated assessment framework is using scenarios of economic development, adaptation, mitigation, food policy, and food security. These coordinated assessments are grounded in the expertise of AgMIP partners around the world, leading to more consistent results and messages for stakeholders, policymakers, and the scientific community. The early inclusion of nutrition and food security experts has helped to ensure that assessment outputs include important metrics upon which investment and policy decisions may be based. The CGRA builds upon existing AgMIP research groups (e.g., the AgMIP Wheat Team and the AgMIP Global Gridded Crop Modeling Initiative; GGCMI) and regional programs (e.g., AgMIP Regional Teams in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia), with new protocols for cross-scale and cross-disciplinary linkages to ensure the propagation of expert judgment and consistent assumptions.

Cultivating sources of competitive advantage : Opportunities for small-scale African farmers in global value chains

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Olthaar, Matthias

2015-01-01

Small-scale farmers in developing countries often appropriate little of the value created in global value chains. The farmers typically receive only a fraction of what consumers pay for a certain product. In the current thesis we studied which resources farmers have access to that enable them to

On the mechanism of self gravitating Rossby interfacial waves in proto-stellar accretion discs

Science.gov (United States)

Yellin-Bergovoy, Ron; Heifetz, Eyal; Umurhan, Orkan M.

2016-05-01

The dynamical response of edge waves under the influence of self-gravity is examined in an idealised two-dimensional model of a proto-stellar disc, characterised in steady state as a rotating vertically infinite cylinder of fluid with constant density except for a single density interface at some radius ?. The fluid in basic state is prescribed to rotate with a Keplerian profile ? modified by some additional azimuthal sheared flow. A linear analysis shows that there are two azimuthally propagating edge waves, kin to the familiar Rossby waves and surface gravity waves in terrestrial studies, which move opposite to one another with respect to the local basic state rotation rate at the interface. Instability only occurs if the radial pressure gradient is opposite to that of the density jump (unstably stratified) where self-gravity acts as a wave stabiliser irrespective of the stratification of the system. The propagation properties of the waves are discussed in detail in the language of vorticity edge waves. The roles of both Boussinesq and non-Boussinesq effects upon the stability and propagation of these waves with and without the inclusion of self-gravity are then quantified. The dynamics involved with self-gravity non-Boussinesq effect is shown to be a source of vorticity production where there is a jump in the basic state density In addition, self-gravity also alters the dynamics via the radial main pressure gradient, which is a Boussinesq effect. Further applications of these mechanical insights are presented in the conclusion including the ways in which multiple density jumps or gaps may or may not be stable.

Cross-scale intercomparison of climate change impacts simulated by regional and global hydrological models in eleven large river basins

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hattermann, F. F.; Krysanova, V.; Gosling, S. N.; Dankers, R.; Daggupati, P.; Donnelly, C.; Flörke, M.; Huang, S.; Motovilov, Y.; Buda, S.; Yang, T.; Müller, C.; Leng, G.; Tang, Q.; Portmann, F. T.; Hagemann, S.; Gerten, D.; Wada, Y.; Masaki, Y.; Alemayehu, T.; Satoh, Y.; Samaniego, L.

2017-01-04

Ideally, the results from models operating at different scales should agree in trend direction and magnitude of impacts under climate change. However, this implies that the sensitivity of impact models designed for either scale to climate variability and change is comparable. In this study, we compare hydrological changes simulated by 9 global and 9 regional hydrological models (HM) for 11 large river basins in all continents under reference and scenario conditions. The foci are on model validation runs, sensitivity of annual discharge to climate variability in the reference period, and sensitivity of the long-term average monthly seasonal dynamics to climate change. One major result is that the global models, mostly not calibrated against observations, often show a considerable bias in mean monthly discharge, whereas regional models show a much better reproduction of reference conditions. However, the sensitivity of two HM ensembles to climate variability is in general similar. The simulated climate change impacts in terms of long-term average monthly dynamics evaluated for HM ensemble medians and spreads show that the medians are to a certain extent comparable in some cases with distinct differences in others, and the spreads related to global models are mostly notably larger. Summarizing, this implies that global HMs are useful tools when looking at large-scale impacts of climate change and variability, but whenever impacts for a specific river basin or region are of interest, e.g. for complex water management applications, the regional-scale models validated against observed discharge should be used.

Active listening in medical consultations: development of the Active Listening Observation Scale (ALOS-global).

Science.gov (United States)

Fassaert, Thijs; van Dulmen, Sandra; Schellevis, François; Bensing, Jozien

2007-11-01

Active listening is a prerequisite for a successful healthcare encounter, bearing potential therapeutic value especially in clinical situations that require no specific medical intervention. Although generally acknowledged as such, active listening has not been studied in depth. This paper describes the development of the Active Listening Observation Scale (ALOS-global), an observation instrument measuring active listening and its validation in a sample of general practice consultations for minor ailments. Five hundred and twenty-four videotaped general practice consultations involving minor ailments were observed with the ALOS-global. Hypotheses were tested to determine validity, incorporating patients' perception of GPs' affective performance, GPs' verbal attention, patients' self-reported anxiety level and gender differences. The final 7-item ALOS-global had acceptable inter- and intra-observer agreement. Factor analysis revealed one homogeneous dimension. The scalescore was positively related to verbal attention measured by RIAS, to patients' perception of GPs' performance and to their pre-visit anxiety level. Female GPs received higher active listening scores. The results of this study are promising concerning the psychometric properties of the ALOS-global. More research is needed to confirm these preliminary findings. After establishing how active listening differentiates between health professionals, the ALOS-global may become a valuable tool in feedback and training aimed at increasing listening skills.

Synthesis and review: Tackling the nitrogen management challenge: from global to local scales

Science.gov (United States)

Reis, Stefan; Bekunda, Mateete; Howard, Clare M.; Karanja, Nancy; Winiwarter, Wilfried; Yan, Xiaoyuan; Bleeker, Albert; Sutton, Mark A.

2016-12-01

One of the ‘grand challenges’ of this age is the anthropogenic impact exerted on the nitrogen cycle. Issues of concern range from an excess of fixed nitrogen resulting in environmental pressures for some regions, while for other regions insufficient fixed nitrogen affects food security and may lead to health risks. To address these issues, nitrogen needs to be managed in an integrated fashion, at a variety of scales (from global to local). Such management has to be based on a thorough understanding of the sources of reactive nitrogen released into the environment, its deposition and effects. This requires a comprehensive assessment of the key drivers of changes in the nitrogen cycle both spatially, at the field, regional and global scale and over time. In this focus issue, we address the challenges of managing reactive nitrogen in the context of food production and its impacts on human and ecosystem health. In addition, we discuss the scope for and design of management approaches in regions with too much and too little nitrogen. This focus issue includes several contributions from authors who participated at the N2013 conference in Kampala in November 2013, where delegates compiled and agreed upon the ‘Kampala Statement-for-Action on Reactive Nitrogen in Africa and Globally’. These contributions further underline scientifically the claims of the ‘Kampala Statement’, that simultaneously reducing pollution and increasing nitrogen available in the food system, by improved nitrogen management offers win-wins for environment, health and food security in both developing and developed economies. The specific messages conveyed in the Kampala Statement focus on improving nitrogen management (I), including the reduction of nitrogen losses from agriculture, industry, transport and energy sectors, as well as improving waste treatment and informing individuals and institutions (II). Highlighting the need for innovation and increased awareness among stakeholders (III

Matching Social and Biophysical Scales in Extensive Livestock Production as a Basis for Adaptation to Global Change

Science.gov (United States)

Sayre, N. F.; Bestelmeyer, B.

2015-12-01

Global livestock production is heterogeneous, and its benefits and costs vary widely across global contexts. Extensive grazing lands (or rangelands) constitute the vast majority of the land dedicated to livestock production globally, but they are relatively minor contributors to livestock-related environmental impacts. Indeed, the greatest potential for environmental damage in these lands lies in their potential for conversion to other uses, including agriculture, mining, energy production and urban development. Managing such conversion requires improving the sustainability of livestock production in the face of fragmentation, ecological and economic marginality and climate change. We present research from Mongolia and the United States demonstrating methods of improving outcomes on rangelands by improving the fit between the scales of social and biophysical processes. Especially in arid and semi-arid settings, rangelands exhibit highly variable productivity over space and time and non-linear or threshold dynamics in vegetation; climate change is projected to exacerbate these challenges and, in some cases, diminish overall productivity. Policy and governance frameworks that enable landscape-scale management and administration enable range livestock producers to adapt to these conditions. Similarly, livestock breeds that have evolved to withstand climate and vegetation change improve producers' prospects in the face of increasing variability and declining productivity. A focus on the relationships among primary production, animal production, spatial connectivity, and scale must underpin adaptation strategies in rangelands.

Global Scale Attribution of Anthropogenic and Natural Dust Sources and their Emission Rates Based on MODIS Deep Blue Aerosol Products

Science.gov (United States)

Ginoux, Paul; Prospero, Joseph M.; Gill, Thomas E.; Hsu, N. Christina; Zhao, Ming

2012-01-01

Our understanding of the global dust cycle is limited by a dearth of information about dust sources, especially small-scale features which could account for a large fraction of global emissions. Here we present a global-scale high-resolution (0.1 deg) mapping of sources based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Deep Blue estimates of dust optical depth in conjunction with other data sets including land use. We ascribe dust sources to natural and anthropogenic (primarily agricultural) origins, calculate their respective contributions to emissions, and extensively compare these products against literature. Natural dust sources globally account for 75% of emissions; anthropogenic sources account for 25%. North Africa accounts for 55% of global dust emissions with only 8% being anthropogenic, mostly from the Sahel. Elsewhere, anthropogenic dust emissions can be much higher (75% in Australia). Hydrologic dust sources (e.g., ephemeral water bodies) account for 31% worldwide; 15% of them are natural while 85% are anthropogenic. Globally, 20% of emissions are from vegetated surfaces, primarily desert shrublands and agricultural lands. Since anthropogenic dust sources are associated with land use and ephemeral water bodies, both in turn linked to the hydrological cycle, their emissions are affected by climate variability. Such changes in dust emissions can impact climate, air quality, and human health. Improved dust emission estimates will require a better mapping of threshold wind velocities, vegetation dynamics, and surface conditions (soil moisture and land use) especially in the sensitive regions identified here, as well as improved ability to address small-scale convective processes producing dust via cold pool (haboob) events frequent in monsoon regimes.

Global-scale attribution of anthropogenic and natural dust sources and their emission rates based on MODIS Deep Blue aerosol products

Science.gov (United States)

Ginoux, Paul; Prospero, Joseph M.; Gill, Thomas E.; Hsu, N. Christina; Zhao, Ming

2012-09-01

Our understanding of the global dust cycle is limited by a dearth of information about dust sources, especially small-scale features which could account for a large fraction of global emissions. Here we present a global-scale high-resolution (0.1°) mapping of sources based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Deep Blue estimates of dust optical depth in conjunction with other data sets including land use. We ascribe dust sources to natural and anthropogenic (primarily agricultural) origins, calculate their respective contributions to emissions, and extensively compare these products against literature. Natural dust sources globally account for 75% of emissions; anthropogenic sources account for 25%. North Africa accounts for 55% of global dust emissions with only 8% being anthropogenic, mostly from the Sahel. Elsewhere, anthropogenic dust emissions can be much higher (75% in Australia). Hydrologic dust sources (e.g., ephemeral water bodies) account for 31% worldwide; 15% of them are natural while 85% are anthropogenic. Globally, 20% of emissions are from vegetated surfaces, primarily desert shrublands and agricultural lands. Since anthropogenic dust sources are associated with land use and ephemeral water bodies, both in turn linked to the hydrological cycle, their emissions are affected by climate variability. Such changes in dust emissions can impact climate, air quality, and human health. Improved dust emission estimates will require a better mapping of threshold wind velocities, vegetation dynamics, and surface conditions (soil moisture and land use) especially in the sensitive regions identified here, as well as improved ability to address small-scale convective processes producing dust via cold pool (haboob) events frequent in monsoon regimes.

Global-Scale Hydrology: Simple Characterization of Complex Simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Koster, Randal D.

1999-01-01

Atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMS) are unique and valuable tools for the analysis of large-scale hydrology. AGCM simulations of climate provide tremendous amounts of hydrological data with a spatial and temporal coverage unmatched by observation systems. To the extent that the AGCM behaves realistically, these data can shed light on the nature of the real world's hydrological cycle. In the first part of the seminar, I will describe the hydrological cycle in a typical AGCM, with some emphasis on the validation of simulated precipitation against observations. The second part of the seminar will focus on a key goal in large-scale hydrology studies, namely the identification of simple, overarching controls on hydrological behavior hidden amidst the tremendous amounts of data produced by the highly complex AGCM parameterizations. In particular, I will show that a simple 50-year-old climatological relation (and a recent extension we made to it) successfully predicts, to first order, both the annual mean and the interannual variability of simulated evaporation and runoff fluxes. The seminar will conclude with an example of a practical application of global hydrology studies. The accurate prediction of weather statistics several months in advance would have tremendous societal benefits, and conventional wisdom today points at the use of coupled ocean-atmosphere-land models for such seasonal-to-interannual prediction. Understanding the hydrological cycle in AGCMs is critical to establishing the potential for such prediction. Our own studies show, among other things, that soil moisture retention can lead to significant precipitation predictability in many midlatitude and tropical regions.

Excess entropy scaling for the segmental and global dynamics of polyethylene melts.

Science.gov (United States)

Voyiatzis, Evangelos; Müller-Plathe, Florian; Böhm, Michael C

2014-11-28

The range of validity of the Rosenfeld and Dzugutov excess entropy scaling laws is analyzed for unentangled linear polyethylene chains. We consider two segmental dynamical quantities, i.e. the bond and the torsional relaxation times, and two global ones, i.e. the chain diffusion coefficient and the viscosity. The excess entropy is approximated by either a series expansion of the entropy in terms of the pair correlation function or by an equation of state for polymers developed in the context of the self associating fluid theory. For the whole range of temperatures and chain lengths considered, the two estimates of the excess entropy are linearly correlated. The scaled bond and torsional relaxation times fall into a master curve irrespective of the chain length and the employed scaling scheme. Both quantities depend non-linearly on the excess entropy. For a fixed chain length, the reduced diffusion coefficient and viscosity scale linearly with the excess entropy. An empirical reduction to a chain length-independent master curve is accessible for both dynamic quantities. The Dzugutov scheme predicts an increased value of the scaled diffusion coefficient with increasing chain length which contrasts physical expectations. The origin of this trend can be traced back to the density dependence of the scaling factors. This finding has not been observed previously for Lennard-Jones chain systems (Macromolecules, 2013, 46, 8710-8723). Thus, it limits the applicability of the Dzugutov approach to polymers. In connection with diffusion coefficients and viscosities, the Rosenfeld scaling law appears to be of higher quality than the Dzugutov approach. An empirical excess entropy scaling is also proposed which leads to a chain length-independent correlation. It is expected to be valid for polymers in the Rouse regime.

Genome-wide evolutionary dynamics of influenza B viruses on a global scale.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pinky Langat

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The global-scale epidemiology and genome-wide evolutionary dynamics of influenza B remain poorly understood compared with influenza A viruses. We compiled a spatio-temporally comprehensive dataset of influenza B viruses, comprising over 2,500 genomes sampled worldwide between 1987 and 2015, including 382 newly-sequenced genomes that fill substantial gaps in previous molecular surveillance studies. Our contributed data increase the number of available influenza B virus genomes in Europe, Africa and Central Asia, improving the global context to study influenza B viruses. We reveal Yamagata-lineage diversity results from co-circulation of two antigenically-distinct groups that also segregate genetically across the entire genome, without evidence of intra-lineage reassortment. In contrast, Victoria-lineage diversity stems from geographic segregation of different genetic clades, with variability in the degree of geographic spread among clades. Differences between the lineages are reflected in their antigenic dynamics, as Yamagata-lineage viruses show alternating dominance between antigenic groups, while Victoria-lineage viruses show antigenic drift of a single lineage. Structural mapping of amino acid substitutions on trunk branches of influenza B gene phylogenies further supports these antigenic differences and highlights two potential mechanisms of adaptation for polymerase activity. Our study provides new insights into the epidemiological and molecular processes shaping influenza B virus evolution globally.

Genome-wide evolutionary dynamics of influenza B viruses on a global scale

Science.gov (United States)

Langat, Pinky; Bowden, Thomas A.; Edwards, Stephanie; Gall, Astrid; Rambaut, Andrew; Daniels, Rodney S.; Russell, Colin A.; Pybus, Oliver G.; McCauley, John

2017-01-01

The global-scale epidemiology and genome-wide evolutionary dynamics of influenza B remain poorly understood compared with influenza A viruses. We compiled a spatio-temporally comprehensive dataset of influenza B viruses, comprising over 2,500 genomes sampled worldwide between 1987 and 2015, including 382 newly-sequenced genomes that fill substantial gaps in previous molecular surveillance studies. Our contributed data increase the number of available influenza B virus genomes in Europe, Africa and Central Asia, improving the global context to study influenza B viruses. We reveal Yamagata-lineage diversity results from co-circulation of two antigenically-distinct groups that also segregate genetically across the entire genome, without evidence of intra-lineage reassortment. In contrast, Victoria-lineage diversity stems from geographic segregation of different genetic clades, with variability in the degree of geographic spread among clades. Differences between the lineages are reflected in their antigenic dynamics, as Yamagata-lineage viruses show alternating dominance between antigenic groups, while Victoria-lineage viruses show antigenic drift of a single lineage. Structural mapping of amino acid substitutions on trunk branches of influenza B gene phylogenies further supports these antigenic differences and highlights two potential mechanisms of adaptation for polymerase activity. Our study provides new insights into the epidemiological and molecular processes shaping influenza B virus evolution globally. PMID:29284042

The use of global rating scales for OSCEs in veterinary medicine.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emma K Read

Full Text Available OSCEs (Objective Structured Clinical Examinations are widely used in health professions to assess clinical skills competence. Raters use standardized binary checklists (CL or multi-dimensional global rating scales (GRS to score candidates performing specific tasks. This study assessed the reliability of CL and GRS scores in the assessment of veterinary students, and is the first study to demonstrate the reliability of GRS within veterinary medical education. Twelve raters from two different schools (6 from University of Calgary [UCVM] and 6 from Royal (Dick School of Veterinary Studies [R(DSVS] were asked to score 12 students (6 from each school. All raters assessed all students (video recordings during 4 OSCE stations (bovine haltering, gowning and gloving, equine bandaging and skin suturing. Raters scored students using a CL, followed by the GRS. Novice raters (6 R(DSVS were assessed independently of expert raters (6 UCVM. Generalizability theory (G theory, analysis of variance (ANOVA and t-tests were used to determine the reliability of rater scores, assess any between school differences (by student, by rater, and determine if there were differences between CL and GRS scores. There was no significant difference in rater performance with use of the CL or the GRS. Scores from the CL were significantly higher than scores from the GRS. The reliability of checklist scores were .42 and .76 for novice and expert raters respectively. The reliability of the global rating scale scores were .7 and .86 for novice and expert raters respectively. A decision study (D-study showed that once trained using CL, GRS could be utilized to reliably score clinical skills in veterinary medicine with both novice and experienced raters.

Global Ocean Circulation in Thermohaline Coordinates and Small-scale and Mesoscale mixing: An Inverse Estimate.

Science.gov (United States)

Groeskamp, S.; Zika, J. D.; McDougall, T. J.; Sloyan, B.

2016-02-01

I will present results of a new inverse technique that infers small-scale turbulent diffusivities and mesoscale eddy diffusivities from an ocean climatology of Salinity (S) and Temperature (T) in combination with surface freshwater and heat fluxes.First, the ocean circulation is represented in (S,T) coordinates, by the diathermohaline streamfunction. Framing the ocean circulation in (S,T) coordinates, isolates the component of the circulation that is directly related to water-mass transformation.Because water-mass transformation is directly related to fluxes of salt and heat, this framework allows for the formulation of an inverse method in which the diathermohaline streamfunction is balanced with known air-sea forcing and unknown mixing. When applying this inverse method to observations, we obtain observationally based estimates for both the streamfunction and the mixing. The results reveal new information about the component of the global ocean circulation due to water-mass transformation and its relation to surface freshwater and heat fluxes and small-scale and mesoscale mixing. The results provide global constraints on spatially varying patterns of diffusivities, in order to obtain a realistic overturning circulation. We find that mesoscale isopycnal mixing is much smaller than expected. These results are important for our understanding of the relation between global ocean circulation and mixing and may lead to improved parameterisations in numerical ocean models.

Authentication and Interpretation of Weight Data Collected from Accountability Scales at Global Nuclear Fuels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fitzgerald, Peter; Laughter, Mark D.; Martyn, Rose; Richardson, Dave; Rowe, Nathan C.; Pickett, Chris A.; Younkin, James R.; Shephard, Adam M.

2010-01-01

Accountability scale data from the Global Nuclear Fuels (GNF) fuel fabrication facility in Wilmington, NC has been collected and analyzed as a part of the Cylinder Accountability and Tracking System (CATS) field trial in 2009. The purpose of the data collection was to demonstrate an authentication method for safeguards applications, and the use of load cell data in cylinder accountability. The scale data was acquired using a commercial off-the-shelf communication server with authentication and encryption capabilities. The authenticated weight data was then analyzed to determine facility operating activities. The data allowed for the determination of the number of full and empty cylinders weighed and the respective weights along with other operational activities. Data authentication concepts, practices and methods, the details of the GNF weight data authentication implementation and scale data interpretation results will be presented.

Active listening in medical consultations: development of the Active Listening Observation Scale (ALOS-global).

OpenAIRE

Fassaert, T.; Dulmen, S. van; Schellevis, F.; Bensing, J.

2007-01-01

OBJECTIVE: Active listening is a prerequisite for a successful healthcare encounter, bearing potential therapeutic value especially in clinical situations that require no specific medical intervention. Although generally acknowledged as such, active listening has not been studied in depth. This paper describes the development of the Active Listening Observation Scale (ALOS-global), an observation instrument measuring active listening and its validation in a sample of general practice consulta...

The role of zonally asymmetric heating in the vertical and temporal structure of the global scale flow fields during FGGE SOP-1. [First Global Atmospheric Research Program Global Experiment (FGGE); Special Observing Period (SOP)

Science.gov (United States)

Paegle, J.; Kalnay-Rivas, E.; Baker, W. E.

1981-01-01

By examining the vertical structure of the low order spherical harmonics of the divergence and vorticity fields, the relative contribution of tropical and monsoonal circulations upon the global wind fields was estimated. This indicates that the overall flow over North America and the Pacific between January and February is quite distinct both in the lower and upper troposphere. In these longitudes there is a stronger tropical overturning and subtropical jet stream in January than February. The divergent flow reversed between 850 and 200 mb. Poleward rotational flow at upper levels is associated with an equatorward rotational flow at low levels. This suggests that the monsoon and other tropical circulations project more amplitude upon low order (global scale) representations of the flow than do the typical midlatitude circulations and that their structures show conspicuous changes on a time scale of a week or less.

A framework for predicting global silicate weathering and CO2 drawdown rates over geologic time-scales.

Science.gov (United States)

Hilley, George E; Porder, Stephen

2008-11-04

Global silicate weathering drives long-time-scale fluctuations in atmospheric CO(2). While tectonics, climate, and rock-type influence silicate weathering, it is unclear how these factors combine to drive global rates. Here, we explore whether local erosion rates, GCM-derived dust fluxes, temperature, and water balance can capture global variation in silicate weathering. Our spatially explicit approach predicts 1.9-4.6 x 10(13) mols of Si weathered globally per year, within a factor of 4-10 of estimates of global silicate fluxes derived from riverine measurements. Similarly, our watershed-based estimates are within a factor of 4-18 (mean of 5.3) of the silica fluxes measured in the world's ten largest rivers. Eighty percent of total global silicate weathering product traveling as dissolved load occurs within a narrow range (0.01-0.5 mm/year) of erosion rates. Assuming each mol of Mg or Ca reacts with 1 mol of CO(2), 1.5-3.3 x 10(8) tons/year of CO(2) is consumed by silicate weathering, consistent with previously published estimates. Approximately 50% of this drawdown occurs in the world's active mountain belts, emphasizing the importance of tectonic regulation of global climate over geologic timescales.

Development of convection along the SPCZ within a Madden-Julian oscillation

OpenAIRE

Matthews, Adrian J.; Hoskins, Brian J.; Slingo, Julia M.; Blackburn, Mike

1996-01-01

A subtropical Rossby-wave propagation mechanism is proposed to account for the poleward and eastward progression of intraseasonal convective anomalies along the South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) that is observed in a significant proportion of Madden–Julian oscillations (MJOs). Large-scale convection, associated with an MJO, is assumed to be already established over the Indonesian region. The latent heating associated with this convection forces an equatorial Rossby-wave response with an u...

Development of convection along the SPCZ within a Madden-Julian oscillation

OpenAIRE

Matthews, AJ; Hoskins, BJ; Slingo, JM; Blackburn, M

1996-01-01

A subtropical Rossby wave propagation mechanism is proposed to account for the poleward and eastward progression of intraseasonal convective anomalies along the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) that is observed in a significant proportion of Madden-Julian Oscillations (MJOs). Large scale convection, associated with an MJO, is assumed to be already established over the Indonesian region. The latent heating associated with this convection forces an equatorial Rossby wave response with an u...

Large-Scale Flows and Magnetic Fields Produced by Rotating Convection in a Quasi-Geostrophic Model of Planetary Cores

Science.gov (United States)

Guervilly, C.; Cardin, P.

2017-12-01

Convection is the main heat transport process in the liquid cores of planets. The convective flows are thought to be turbulent and constrained by rotation (corresponding to high Reynolds numbers Re and low Rossby numbers Ro). Under these conditions, and in the absence of magnetic fields, the convective flows can produce coherent Reynolds stresses that drive persistent large-scale zonal flows. The formation of large-scale flows has crucial implications for the thermal evolution of planets and the generation of large-scale magnetic fields. In this work, we explore this problem with numerical simulations using a quasi-geostrophic approximation to model convective and zonal flows at Re 104 and Ro 10-4 for Prandtl numbers relevant for liquid metals (Pr 0.1). The formation of intense multiple zonal jets strongly affects the convective heat transport, leading to the formation of a mean temperature staircase. We also study the generation of magnetic fields by the quasi-geostrophic flows at low magnetic Prandtl numbers.

Global analysis of seagrass restoration: the importance of large-scale planting

KAUST Repository

van Katwijk, Marieke M.; Thorhaug, Anitra; Marbà , Nú ria; Orth, Robert J.; Duarte, Carlos M.; Kendrick, Gary A.; Althuizen, Inge H. J.; Balestri, Elena; Bernard, Guillaume; Cambridge, Marion L.; Cunha, Alexandra; Durance, Cynthia; Giesen, Wim; Han, Qiuying; Hosokawa, Shinya; Kiswara, Wawan; Komatsu, Teruhisa; Lardicci, Claudio; Lee, Kun-Seop; Meinesz, Alexandre; Nakaoka, Masahiro; O'Brien, Katherine R.; Paling, Erik I.; Pickerell, Chris; Ransijn, Aryan M. A.; Verduin, Jennifer J.

2015-01-01

In coastal and estuarine systems, foundation species like seagrasses, mangroves, saltmarshes or corals provide important ecosystem services. Seagrasses are globally declining and their reintroduction has been shown to restore ecosystem functions. However, seagrass restoration is often challenging, given the dynamic and stressful environment that seagrasses often grow in. From our world-wide meta-analysis of seagrass restoration trials (1786 trials), we describe general features and best practice for seagrass restoration. We confirm that removal of threats is important prior to replanting. Reduced water quality (mainly eutrophication), and construction activities led to poorer restoration success than, for instance, dredging, local direct impact and natural causes. Proximity to and recovery of donor beds were positively correlated with trial performance. Planting techniques can influence restoration success. The meta-analysis shows that both trial survival and seagrass population growth rate in trials that survived are positively affected by the number of plants or seeds initially transplanted. This relationship between restoration scale and restoration success was not related to trial characteristics of the initial restoration. The majority of the seagrass restoration trials have been very small, which may explain the low overall trial survival rate (i.e. estimated 37%). Successful regrowth of the foundation seagrass species appears to require crossing a minimum threshold of reintroduced individuals. Our study provides the first global field evidence for the requirement of a critical mass for recovery, which may also hold for other foundation species showing strong positive feedback to a dynamic environment. Synthesis and applications. For effective restoration of seagrass foundation species in its typically dynamic, stressful environment, introduction of large numbers is seen to be beneficial and probably serves two purposes. First, a large-scale planting

Global analysis of seagrass restoration: the importance of large-scale planting

KAUST Repository

van Katwijk, Marieke M.

2015-10-28

In coastal and estuarine systems, foundation species like seagrasses, mangroves, saltmarshes or corals provide important ecosystem services. Seagrasses are globally declining and their reintroduction has been shown to restore ecosystem functions. However, seagrass restoration is often challenging, given the dynamic and stressful environment that seagrasses often grow in. From our world-wide meta-analysis of seagrass restoration trials (1786 trials), we describe general features and best practice for seagrass restoration. We confirm that removal of threats is important prior to replanting. Reduced water quality (mainly eutrophication), and construction activities led to poorer restoration success than, for instance, dredging, local direct impact and natural causes. Proximity to and recovery of donor beds were positively correlated with trial performance. Planting techniques can influence restoration success. The meta-analysis shows that both trial survival and seagrass population growth rate in trials that survived are positively affected by the number of plants or seeds initially transplanted. This relationship between restoration scale and restoration success was not related to trial characteristics of the initial restoration. The majority of the seagrass restoration trials have been very small, which may explain the low overall trial survival rate (i.e. estimated 37%). Successful regrowth of the foundation seagrass species appears to require crossing a minimum threshold of reintroduced individuals. Our study provides the first global field evidence for the requirement of a critical mass for recovery, which may also hold for other foundation species showing strong positive feedback to a dynamic environment. Synthesis and applications. For effective restoration of seagrass foundation species in its typically dynamic, stressful environment, introduction of large numbers is seen to be beneficial and probably serves two purposes. First, a large-scale planting

Large-scale groundwater modeling using global datasets: a test case for the Rhine-Meuse basin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. H. Sutanudjaja

2011-09-01

Full Text Available The current generation of large-scale hydrological models does not include a groundwater flow component. Large-scale groundwater models, involving aquifers and basins of multiple countries, are still rare mainly due to a lack of hydro-geological data which are usually only available in developed countries. In this study, we propose a novel approach to construct large-scale groundwater models by using global datasets that are readily available. As the test-bed, we use the combined Rhine-Meuse basin that contains groundwater head data used to verify the model output. We start by building a distributed land surface model (30 arc-second resolution to estimate groundwater recharge and river discharge. Subsequently, a MODFLOW transient groundwater model is built and forced by the recharge and surface water levels calculated by the land surface model. Results are promising despite the fact that we still use an offline procedure to couple the land surface and MODFLOW groundwater models (i.e. the simulations of both models are separately performed. The simulated river discharges compare well to the observations. Moreover, based on our sensitivity analysis, in which we run several groundwater model scenarios with various hydro-geological parameter settings, we observe that the model can reasonably well reproduce the observed groundwater head time series. However, we note that there are still some limitations in the current approach, specifically because the offline-coupling technique simplifies the dynamic feedbacks between surface water levels and groundwater heads, and between soil moisture states and groundwater heads. Also the current sensitivity analysis ignores the uncertainty of the land surface model output. Despite these limitations, we argue that the results of the current model show a promise for large-scale groundwater modeling practices, including for data-poor environments and at the global scale.

Vorticity-divergence semi-Lagrangian global atmospheric model SL-AV20: dynamical core

Science.gov (United States)

Tolstykh, Mikhail; Shashkin, Vladimir; Fadeev, Rostislav; Goyman, Gordey

2017-05-01

SL-AV (semi-Lagrangian, based on the absolute vorticity equation) is a global hydrostatic atmospheric model. Its latest version, SL-AV20, provides global operational medium-range weather forecast with 20 km resolution over Russia. The lower-resolution configurations of SL-AV20 are being tested for seasonal prediction and climate modeling. The article presents the model dynamical core. Its main features are a vorticity-divergence formulation at the unstaggered grid, high-order finite-difference approximations, semi-Lagrangian semi-implicit discretization and the reduced latitude-longitude grid with variable resolution in latitude. The accuracy of SL-AV20 numerical solutions using a reduced lat-lon grid and the variable resolution in latitude is tested with two idealized test cases. Accuracy and stability of SL-AV20 in the presence of the orography forcing are tested using the mountain-induced Rossby wave test case. The results of all three tests are in good agreement with other published model solutions. It is shown that the use of the reduced grid does not significantly affect the accuracy up to the 25 % reduction in the number of grid points with respect to the regular grid. Variable resolution in latitude allows us to improve the accuracy of a solution in the region of interest.

Global direct pressures on biodiversity by large-scale metal mining: Spatial distribution and implications for conservation.

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Murguía, Diego I; Bringezu, Stefan; Schaldach, Rüdiger

2016-09-15

Biodiversity loss is widely recognized as a serious global environmental change process. While large-scale metal mining activities do not belong to the top drivers of such change, these operations exert or may intensify pressures on biodiversity by adversely changing habitats, directly and indirectly, at local and regional scales. So far, analyses of global spatial dynamics of mining and its burden on biodiversity focused on the overlap between mines and protected areas or areas of high value for conservation. However, it is less clear how operating metal mines are globally exerting pressure on zones of different biodiversity richness; a similar gap exists for unmined but known mineral deposits. By using vascular plants' diversity as a proxy to quantify overall biodiversity, this study provides a first examination of the global spatial distribution of mines and deposits for five key metals across different biodiversity zones. The results indicate that mines and deposits are not randomly distributed, but concentrated within intermediate and high diversity zones, especially bauxite and silver. In contrast, iron, gold, and copper mines and deposits are closer to a more proportional distribution while showing a high concentration in the intermediate biodiversity zone. Considering the five metals together, 63% and 61% of available mines and deposits, respectively, are located in intermediate diversity zones, comprising 52% of the global land terrestrial surface. 23% of mines and 20% of ore deposits are located in areas of high plant diversity, covering 17% of the land. 13% of mines and 19% of deposits are in areas of low plant diversity, comprising 31% of the land surface. Thus, there seems to be potential for opening new mines in areas of low biodiversity in the future. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development OF A Multi-Scale Framework for Mapping Global Evapotranspiration

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Hain, Christopher R.; Anderson, Martha C.; Schull, Mitchell; Neale, Christopher; Zhan, Xiwu

2017-01-01

As the worlds water resources come under increasing tension due to dual stressors of climate change and population growth, accurate knowledge of water consumption through evapotranspiration (ET) over a range in spatial scales will be critical in developing adaptation strategies. Remote sensing methods for monitoring consumptive water use (e.g, ET) are becoming increasingly important, especially in areas of significant water and food insecurity. One method to estimate ET from satellite-based methods, the Atmosphere Land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) model uses the change in mid-morning land surface temperature to estimate the partitioning of sensible and latent heat fluxes which are then used to estimate daily ET. This presentation will outline several recent enhancements to the ALEXI modeling system, with a focus on global ET and drought monitoring.

Validity Evidence for the Interpretation and Use of Essential Elements of Communication Global Rating Scale Scores

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Schneider, Nancy Rhoda

2015-01-01

Purpose. Clinical communication influences health outcomes, so medical schools are charged to prepare future physicians with the skills they need to interact effectively with patients. Communication leaders at The University of New Mexico School of Medicine (UNMSOM) developed The Essential Elements of Communication-Global Rating Scale (EEC-GRS) to…

Assessing the influence of watershed characteristics on chlorophyll a in waterbodies at global and regional scales

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Woelmer, Whitney; Kao, Yu-Chun; Bunnell, David B.; Deines, Andrew M.; Bennion, David; Rogers, Mark W.; Brooks, Colin N.; Sayers, Michael J.; Banach, David M.; Grimm, Amanda G.; Shuchman, Robert A.

2016-01-01

Prediction of primary production of lentic water bodies (i.e., lakes and reservoirs) is valuable to researchers and resource managers alike, but is very rarely done at the global scale. With the development of remote sensing technologies, it is now feasible to gather large amounts of data across the world, including understudied and remote regions. To determine which factors were most important in explaining the variation of chlorophyll a (Chl-a), an indicator of primary production in water bodies, at global and regional scales, we first developed a geospatial database of 227 water bodies and watersheds with corresponding Chl-a, nutrient, hydrogeomorphic, and climate data. Then we used a generalized additive modeling approach and developed model selection criteria to select models that most parsimoniously related Chl-a to predictor variables for all 227 water bodies and for 51 lakes in the Laurentian Great Lakes region in the data set. Our best global model contained two hydrogeomorphic variables (water body surface area and the ratio of watershed to water body surface area) and a climate variable (average temperature in the warmest model selection criteria to select models that most parsimoniously related Chl-a to predictor variables quarter) and explained ~ 30% of variation in Chl-a. Our regional model contained one hydrogeomorphic variable (flow accumulation) and the same climate variable, but explained substantially more variation (58%). Our results indicate that a regional approach to watershed modeling may be more informative to predicting Chl-a, and that nearly a third of global variability in Chl-a may be explained using hydrogeomorphic and climate variables.

Interannual Variation in Phytoplankton Class-specific Primary Production at a Global Scale

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Rousseaux, Cecile; Gregg, Watson

2014-01-01

Phytoplankton is responsible for over half of the net primary production on earth. The knowledge on the contribution of various phytoplankton groups to the total primary production is still poorly understood. Data from satellite observations suggest that for upwelling regions, photosynthetic rates by microplankton is higher than that of nanoplankton but that when the spatial extent is considered, the production by nanoplankton is comparable or even larger than microplankton. Here, we used the NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM) combined with remote sensing data via assimilation to evaluate the contribution of 4 phytoplankton groups to the total primary production. Globally, diatoms were the group that contributed the most to the total phytoplankton production (approx. 50%) followed by coccolithophores and chlorophytes. Primary production by diatoms was highest in high latitude (>45 deg) and in major upwelling systems (Equatorial Pacific and Benguela system). We assessed the effects of climate variability on the class-specific primary production using global (i.e. Multivariate El Nino Index, MEI) and 'regional' climate indices (e.g. Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)). Most interannual variability occurred in the Equatorial Pacific and was associated with climate variability. These results provide a modeling and data assimilation perspective to phytoplankton partitioning of primary production and contribute to our understanding of the dynamics of the carbon cycle in the oceans at a global scale.

Rapid global ocean-atmosphere response to Southern Ocean freshening during the last glacial.

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Turney, Chris S M; Jones, Richard T; Phipps, Steven J; Thomas, Zoë; Hogg, Alan; Kershaw, A Peter; Fogwill, Christopher J; Palmer, Jonathan; Bronk Ramsey, Christopher; Adolphi, Florian; Muscheler, Raimund; Hughen, Konrad A; Staff, Richard A; Grosvenor, Mark; Golledge, Nicholas R; Rasmussen, Sune Olander; Hutchinson, David K; Haberle, Simon; Lorrey, Andrew; Boswijk, Gretel; Cooper, Alan

2017-09-12

Contrasting Greenland and Antarctic temperatures during the last glacial period (115,000 to 11,650 years ago) are thought to have been driven by imbalances in the rates of formation of North Atlantic and Antarctic Deep Water (the 'bipolar seesaw'). Here we exploit a bidecadally resolved 14 C data set obtained from New Zealand kauri (Agathis australis) to undertake high-precision alignment of key climate data sets spanning iceberg-rafted debris event Heinrich 3 and Greenland Interstadial (GI) 5.1 in the North Atlantic (~30,400 to 28,400 years ago). We observe no divergence between the kauri and Atlantic marine sediment 14 C data sets, implying limited changes in deep water formation. However, a Southern Ocean (Atlantic-sector) iceberg rafted debris event appears to have occurred synchronously with GI-5.1 warming and decreased precipitation over the western equatorial Pacific and Atlantic. An ensemble of transient meltwater simulations shows that Antarctic-sourced salinity anomalies can generate climate changes that are propagated globally via an atmospheric Rossby wave train.A challenge for testing mechanisms of past climate change is the precise correlation of palaeoclimate records. Here, through climate modelling and the alignment of terrestrial, ice and marine 14 C and 10 Be records, the authors show that Southern Ocean freshwater hosing can trigger global change.

A global classification of coastal flood hazard climates associated with large-scale oceanographic forcing.

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Rueda, Ana; Vitousek, Sean; Camus, Paula; Tomás, Antonio; Espejo, Antonio; Losada, Inigo J; Barnard, Patrick L; Erikson, Li H; Ruggiero, Peter; Reguero, Borja G; Mendez, Fernando J

2017-07-11

Coastal communities throughout the world are exposed to numerous and increasing threats, such as coastal flooding and erosion, saltwater intrusion and wetland degradation. Here, we present the first global-scale analysis of the main drivers of coastal flooding due to large-scale oceanographic factors. Given the large dimensionality of the problem (e.g. spatiotemporal variability in flood magnitude and the relative influence of waves, tides and surge levels), we have performed a computer-based classification to identify geographical areas with homogeneous climates. Results show that 75% of coastal regions around the globe have the potential for very large flooding events with low probabilities (unbounded tails), 82% are tide-dominated, and almost 49% are highly susceptible to increases in flooding frequency due to sea-level rise.

Sea surface salinity and temperature-based predictive modeling of southwestern US winter precipitation: improvements, errors, and potential mechanisms

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Liu, T.; Schmitt, R. W.; Li, L.

2017-12-01

Using 69 years of historical data from 1948-2017, we developed a method to globally search for sea surface salinity (SSS) and temperature (SST) predictors of regional terrestrial precipitation. We then applied this method to build an autumn (SON) SSS and SST-based 3-month lead predictive model of winter (DJF) precipitation in southwestern United States. We also find that SSS-only models perform better than SST-only models. We previously used an arbitrary correlation coefficient (r) threshold, |r| > 0.25, to define SSS and SST predictor polygons for best subset regression of southwestern US winter precipitation; from preliminary sensitivity tests, we find that |r| > 0.18 yields the best models. The observed below-average precipitation (0.69 mm/day) in winter 2015-2016 falls within the 95% confidence interval of the prediction model. However, the model underestimates the anomalous high precipitation (1.78 mm/day) in winter 2016-2017 by more than three-fold. Moisture transport mainly attributed to "pineapple express" atmospheric rivers (ARs) in winter 2016-2017 suggests that the model falls short on a sub-seasonal scale, in which case storms from ARs contribute a significant portion of seasonal terrestrial precipitation. Further, we identify a potential mechanism for long-range SSS and precipitation teleconnections: standing Rossby waves. The heat applied to the atmosphere from anomalous tropical rainfall can generate standing Rossby waves that propagate to higher latitudes. SSS anomalies may be indicative of anomalous tropical rainfall, and by extension, standing Rossby waves that provide the long-range teleconnections.

Spatiotemporal models of global soil organic carbon stock to support land degradation assessments at regional and global scales: limitations, challenges and opportunities

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Hengl, Tomislav; Heuvelink, Gerard; Sanderman, Jonathan; MacMillan, Robert

2017-04-01

There is an increasing interest in fitting and applying spatiotemporal models that can be used to assess and monitor soil organic carbon stocks (SOCS), for example, in support of the '4 pourmille' initiative aiming at soil carbon sequestration towards climate change adaptation and mitigation and UN's Land Degradation Neutrality indicators and similar degradation assessment projects at regional and global scales. The land cover mapping community has already produced several spatiotemporal data sets with global coverage and at relatively fine resolution e.g. USGS MODIS land cover annual maps for period 2000-2014; European Space Agency land cover maps at 300 m resolution for the year 2000, 2005 and 2010; Chinese GlobeLand30 dataset available for years 2000 and 2010; Columbia University's WRI GlobalForestWatch with deforestation maps at 30 m resolution for the period 2000-2016 (Hansen et al. 2013). These data sets can be used for land degradation assessment and scenario testing at global and regional scales (Wei et al 2014). Currently, however, no compatible global spatiotemporal data sets exist on status of soil quality and/or soil health (Powlson et al. 2013). This paper describes an initial effort to devise and evaluate a procedure for mapping spatio-temporal changes in SOC stocks using a complete stack of soil forming factors (climate, relief, land cover, land use, lithology and living organisms) represented mainly through remote sensing based time series of Earth images. For model building we used some 75,000 geo-referenced soil profiles and a stacks space-time covariates (land cover, land use, biomass, climate) at two standard resolutions: (1) 10 km resolution with data available for period 1920-2014 and (2) 1000 m resolution with data available for period 2000-2014. The initial results show that, although it is technically feasible to produce space time estimates of SOCS that demonstrate the procedure, the estimates are relatively uncertain (<45% of variation

From global circulation to flood loss: Coupling models across the scales

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Felder, Guido; Gomez-Navarro, Juan Jose; Bozhinova, Denica; Zischg, Andreas; Raible, Christoph C.; Ole, Roessler; Martius, Olivia; Weingartner, Rolf

2017-04-01

The prediction and the prevention of flood losses requires an extensive understanding of underlying meteorological, hydrological, hydraulic and damage processes. Coupled models help to improve the understanding of such underlying processes and therefore contribute the understanding of flood risk. Using such a modelling approach to determine potentially flood-affected areas and damages requires a complex coupling between several models operating at different spatial and temporal scales. Although the isolated parts of the single modelling components are well established and commonly used in the literature, a full coupling including a mesoscale meteorological model driven by a global circulation one, a hydrologic model, a hydrodynamic model and a flood impact and loss model has not been reported so far. In the present study, we tackle the application of such a coupled model chain in terms of computational resources, scale effects, and model performance. From a technical point of view, results show the general applicability of such a coupled model, as well as good model performance. From a practical point of view, such an approach enables the prediction of flood-induced damages, although some future challenges have been identified.

Zonal Wave Number 2 Rossby Wave (3.5-day oscillation) Over The Martian Lower Atmosphere

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Ghosh, P.; Thokuluwa, R. K.

2013-12-01

Over the Mars, height (800-50 Pascal pressure coordinate) profiles of temperature (K), measured by radio occultation technique during the MGS (Mars Global Surveyor) mission, obtained for the period of 1-10 January 2006 at the Martian latitude of ~63N in almost all the longitudes are analyzed to study the characteristics of the 3.5-day oscillation. To avoid significant data gaps in a particular longitude sector, we selected a set of 7 Mars longitude regions with ranges of 0-30E, 35-60E, 65-95E, 190-230E, 250-280E, 290-320E, and 325-360E to study the global characteristics of the 3.5-day oscillation. The 3.5-day oscillation is not selected as a-priori but observed as a most significant oscillation during this period of 1-10 January 2006. It is observed that in the longitude of 0-30E, the 3.5-day oscillation shows statistically significant power (above the 95% confidence level white noise) from the lowest height (800 Pascal, 8 hPa) itself and up to the height of 450 Pascal level with the maximum power of ~130 K^2 at the 600 & 650 Pascal levels. It started to grow from the power of ~ 50 K^2 at the lowest height of 800 Pascal level and reached the maximum power in the height of 600-650 Pascal level and then it started to get lessened monotonously up to the height of 450 Pascal level where its power is ~ 20 K^2. Beyond this height and up to the height of 50 Pascal level, the wave amplitude is below the white noise level. As the phase of the wave is almost constant at all the height levels, it seems that the observed 3.5-day oscillation is a stationary wave with respect to the height. In the 35-60 E longitude sector, the vertical structure of the 3.5-day oscillation is similar to what observed for the 0-30 E longitude region but the power is statistically insignificant at all the heights. However in the 65-95E longitude sector, the wave grows from the lowest level (70 K^2) of 800 Pascal to its maximum power of 280 K^2 in the height of 700 Pascal level and then it started

The Centre for Mountain Studies: Active From Scottish to Global Scales

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Amy Woolvin

2016-11-01

Full Text Available The Centre for Mountain Studies (CMS, located at Perth College, University of the Highlands and Islands, Scotland, hosts the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization Chair in Sustainable Mountain Development. Since 2000, CMS staff and students have been active in research and knowledge exchange activities at scales from the local—in Scotland—to the global (Price 2011; Glass et al 2013. In addition to hosting the Mountains of our Future Earth conference (Perth III, recent international activities have focused on climate change, biosphere reserves, social innovation, and stakeholder engagement in biodiversity research. Projects in Scotland have mainly addressed land management and local communities. The CMS also runs a part-time online MSc program in Sustainable Mountain Development.

EOF analysis of COSMIC observations on the global zonal mean temperature structure of the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere from 2007 to 2013

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Salinas, Cornelius Csar Jude H.; Chang, Loren C.

2018-06-01

This work presents the results of a Conventional Empirical Orthogonal Function Analysis on daily global zonal mean temperature profiles in the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere (15-35 km), as measured by the FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC mission from January 2007 to June 2013. For validation, results were compared with ERA-Interim reanalysis. Results show that, the leading global EOF mode (27%) from COSMIC is consistent with temperature anomalies due to the tropical cooling associated with boreal winter Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSW). The second global EOF mode from COSMIC (15.3%) is consistent with temperature anomalies due to the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO). The third global mode from COSMIC (10.9%) is consistent with temperature anomalies due to the El Nino Southern Oscillation. This work also shows that the second northern hemisphere EOF mode from COSMIC (16.8%) is consistent with temperature anomalies due Rossby-wave breaking (RWB) which is expected to only be resolved by a high vertical and temporal resolution dataset like COSMIC. Our work concludes that the use of a high vertical and temporal resolution dataset like COSMIC yields non-seasonal EOF modes that are consistent with relatively more intricate temperature anomalies due to the SSW, QBO, ENSO and RWB.

Regional scaling of annual mean precipitation and water availability with global temperature change

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Greve, Peter; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2018-03-01

Changes in regional water availability belong to the most crucial potential impacts of anthropogenic climate change, but are highly uncertain. It is thus of key importance for stakeholders to assess the possible implications of different global temperature thresholds on these quantities. Using a subset of climate model simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), we derive here the sensitivity of regional changes in precipitation and in precipitation minus evapotranspiration to global temperature changes. The simulations span the full range of available emission scenarios, and the sensitivities are derived using a modified pattern scaling approach. The applied approach assumes linear relationships on global temperature changes while thoroughly addressing associated uncertainties via resampling methods. This allows us to assess the full distribution of the simulations in a probabilistic sense. Northern high-latitude regions display robust responses towards wetting, while subtropical regions display a tendency towards drying but with a large range of responses. Even though both internal variability and the scenario choice play an important role in the overall spread of the simulations, the uncertainty stemming from the climate model choice usually accounts for about half of the total uncertainty in most regions. We additionally assess the implications of limiting global mean temperature warming to values below (i) 2 K or (ii) 1.5 K (as stated within the 2015 Paris Agreement). We show that opting for the 1.5 K target might just slightly influence the mean response, but could substantially reduce the risk of experiencing extreme changes in regional water availability.

Very small glaciers under climate change: from the local to the global scale

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Huss, M.; Fischer, M.

2015-12-01

Very small glaciers (climate archive. Very small glaciers have generally shorter response times than valley glaciers and their mass balance is strongly dependent on snow redistribution processes. Worldwide glacier monitoring has focused on medium-sized to large glaciers leaving us with a relatively limited understanding of the behavior of very small glaciers. With warming climate there is an increasing concern that very small glaciers might be the first to disappear. Already in the next decades this might result in the complete deglaciation of mountain ranges with glacier equilibrium lines close to the highest peaks, such as in the Rocky Mountains, the European Alps, the Andes or parts of High Mountain Asia. In this contribution, we present a comprehensive modelling framework to assess past and future changes in very small glaciers at the mountain-range scale. Among other processes our model accounts for snow redistribution, changes in glacier geometry and dynamic changes in debris-coverage, and computes e.g. distributed mass balance, englacial temperature and proglacial runoff. Detailed glacier projections until 2060 are shown for the Swiss Alps based on new data sets, and the 21st century contribution of all very small glaciers worldwide to sea-level rise is quantified using a global model. Grid-based modelling of surface mass balance and retreat for 1133 very small glaciers in Switzerland indicates that 70% of them will completely vanish within the next 25 years. However, a few avalanche-fed glaciers at low elevation might be able to survive even substantial atmospheric warming. We find relatively high static and dynamic sensitivities for gently-sloping glaciers. At the global scale, glaciers presently smaller than 1 km2 make up for only 0.7% of total ice volume but account for 6.7% of sea-level rise contribution during the period 2015-2025. This indicates that very small glaciers are a non-negligible component of global glacier change, at least in the near

Google Earth Engine: a new cloud-computing platform for global-scale earth observation data and analysis

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Moore, R. T.; Hansen, M. C.

2011-12-01

Google Earth Engine is a new technology platform that enables monitoring and measurement of changes in the earth's environment, at planetary scale, on a large catalog of earth observation data. The platform offers intrinsically-parallel computational access to thousands of computers in Google's data centers. Initial efforts have focused primarily on global forest monitoring and measurement, in support of REDD+ activities in the developing world. The intent is to put this platform into the hands of scientists and developing world nations, in order to advance the broader operational deployment of existing scientific methods, and strengthen the ability for public institutions and civil society to better understand, manage and report on the state of their natural resources. Earth Engine currently hosts online nearly the complete historical Landsat archive of L5 and L7 data collected over more than twenty-five years. Newly-collected Landsat imagery is downloaded from USGS EROS Center into Earth Engine on a daily basis. Earth Engine also includes a set of historical and current MODIS data products. The platform supports generation, on-demand, of spatial and temporal mosaics, "best-pixel" composites (for example to remove clouds and gaps in satellite imagery), as well as a variety of spectral indices. Supervised learning methods are available over the Landsat data catalog. The platform also includes a new application programming framework, or "API", that allows scientists access to these computational and data resources, to scale their current algorithms or develop new ones. Under the covers of the Google Earth Engine API is an intrinsically-parallel image-processing system. Several forest monitoring applications powered by this API are currently in development and expected to be operational in 2011. Combining science with massive data and technology resources in a cloud-computing framework can offer advantages of computational speed, ease-of-use and collaboration, as

Scaled biotic disruption during early Eocene global warming events

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S. J. Gibbs

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Late Paleocene and early Eocene hyperthermals are transient warming events associated with massive perturbations of the global carbon cycle, and are considered partial analogues for current anthropogenic climate change. Because the magnitude of carbon release varied between the events, they are natural experiments ideal for exploring the relationship between carbon cycle perturbations, climate change and biotic response. Here we quantify marine biotic variability through three million years of the early Eocene that include five hyperthermals, utilizing a method that allows us to integrate the records of different plankton groups through scenarios ranging from background to major extinction events. Our long time-series calcareous nannoplankton record indicates a scaling of biotic disruption to climate change associated with the amount of carbon released during the various hyperthermals. Critically, only the three largest hyperthermals, the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM2 and the I1 event, show above-background variance, suggesting that the magnitude of carbon input and associated climate change needs to surpass a threshold value to cause significant biotic disruption.

Integrated modelling of anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change on the global scale

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Schaldach, R.; Koch, J.; Alcamo, J.

2009-04-01

In many cases land-use activities go hand in hand with substantial modifications of the physical and biological cover of the Earth's surface, resulting in direct effects on energy and matter fluxes between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. For instance, the conversion of forest to cropland is changing climate relevant surface parameters (e.g. albedo) as well as evapotranspiration processes and carbon flows. In turn, human land-use decisions are also influenced by environmental processes. Changing temperature and precipitation patterns for example are important determinants for location and intensity of agriculture. Due to these close linkages, processes of land-use and related land-cover change should be considered as important components in the construction of Earth System models. A major challenge in modelling land-use change on the global scale is the integration of socio-economic aspects and human decision making with environmental processes. One of the few global approaches that integrates functional components to represent both anthropogenic and environmental aspects of land-use change, is the LandSHIFT model. It simulates the spatial and temporal dynamics of the human land-use activities settlement, cultivation of food crops and grazing management, which compete for the available land resources. The rational of the model is to regionalize the demands for area intensive commodities (e.g. crop production) and services (e.g. space for housing) from the country-level to a global grid with the spatial resolution of 5 arc-minutes. The modelled land-use decisions within the agricultural sector are influenced by changing climate and the resulting effects on biomass productivity. Currently, this causal chain is modelled by integrating results from the process-based vegetation model LPJmL model for changing crop yields and net primary productivity of grazing land. Model output of LandSHIFT is a time series of grid maps with land-use/land-cover information

Characterizing the utility of the TMPA real-time product for hydrologic predictions over global river basins across scales

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Gao, H.; Zhang, S.; Nijssen, B.; Zhou, T.; Voisin, N.; Sheffield, J.; Lee, K.; Shukla, S.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2017-12-01

Despite its errors and uncertainties, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis real-time product (TMPA-RT) has been widely used for hydrological monitoring and forecasting due to its timely availability for real-time applications. To evaluate the utility of TMPA-RT in hydrologic predictions, many studies have compared modeled streamflows driven by TMPA-RT against gauge data. However, because of the limited availability of streamflow observations in data sparse regions, there is still a lack of comprehensive comparisons for TMPA-RT based hydrologic predictions at the global scale. Furthermore, it is expected that its skill is less optimal at the subbasin scale than the basin scale. In this study, we evaluate and characterize the utility of the TMPA-RT product over selected global river basins during the period of 1998 to 2015 using the TMPA research product (TMPA-RP) as a reference. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, which was calibrated and validated previously, is adopted to simulate streamflows driven by TMPA-RT and TMPA-RP, respectively. The objective of this study is to analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of the hydrologic predictions by answering the following questions: (1) How do the precipitation errors associated with the TMPA-RT product transform into streamflow errors with respect to geographical and climatological characteristics? (2) How do streamflow errors vary across scales within a basin?

Sources of uncertainties in modelling black carbon at the global scale

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E. Vignati

2010-03-01

Full Text Available Our understanding of the global black carbon (BC cycle is essentially qualitative due to uncertainties in our knowledge of its properties. This work investigates two source of uncertainties in modelling black carbon: those due to the use of different schemes for BC ageing and its removal rate in the global Transport-Chemistry model TM5 and those due to the uncertainties in the definition and quantification of the observations, which propagate through to both the emission inventories, and the measurements used for the model evaluation.

The schemes for the atmospheric processing of black carbon that have been tested with the model are (i a simple approach considering BC as bulk aerosol and a simple treatment of the removal with fixed 70% of in-cloud black carbon concentrations scavenged by clouds and removed when rain is present and (ii a more complete description of microphysical ageing within an aerosol dynamics model, where removal is coupled to the microphysical properties of the aerosol, which results in a global average of 40% in-cloud black carbon that is scavenged in clouds and subsequently removed by rain, thus resulting in a longer atmospheric lifetime. This difference is reflected in comparisons between both sets of modelled results and the measurements. Close to the sources, both anthropogenic and vegetation fire source regions, the model results do not differ significantly, indicating that the emissions are the prevailing mechanism determining the concentrations and the choice of the aerosol scheme does not influence the levels. In more remote areas such as oceanic and polar regions the differences can be orders of magnitude, due to the differences between the two schemes. The more complete description reproduces the seasonal trend of the black carbon observations in those areas, although not always the magnitude of the signal, while the more simplified approach underestimates black carbon concentrations by orders of

Global-scale assessment and combination of SMAP with ASCAT (active) and AMSR2 (passive) soil moisture products

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Kim, Hyunglok; Parinussa, Robert; Konings, Alexandra G.; Wagner, Wolfgang; Cosh, Michael H.; Lakshmi, Venkat; Zohaib, Muhammad; Choi, Minha

2018-01-01

Global-scale surface soil moisture (SSM) products retrieved from active and passive microwave remote sensing provide an effective method for monitoring near-real-time SSM content with nearly daily temporal resolution. In the present study, we first inter-compared global-scale error patterns and combined the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT), and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) SSM products using a triple collocation (TC) analysis and the maximized Pearson correlation coefficient (R) method from April 2015 to December 2016. The Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) and global in situ observations were utilized to investigate and to compare the quality of satellite-based SSM products. The average R-values of SMAP, ASCAT, and AMSR2 were 0.74, 0.64, and 0.65 when they compared with in situ networks, respectively. The ubRMSD values were (0.0411, 0.0625, and 0.0708) m3 m- 3; and the bias values were (- 0.0460, 0.0010, and 0.0418) m3 m- 3 for SMAP, ASCAT, and AMSR2, respectively. The highest average R-values from SMAP against the in situ results are very encouraging; only SMAP showed higher R-values than GLDAS in several in situ networks with low ubRMSD (0.0438 m3 m- 3). Overall, SMAP showed a dry bias (- 0.0460 m3 m- 3) and AMSR2 had a wet bias (0.0418 m3 m- 3); while ASCAT showed the least bias (0.0010 m3 m- 3) among all the products. Each product was evaluated using TC metrics with respect to the different ranges of vegetation optical depth (VOD). Under vegetation scarce conditions (VOD 0.40) ASCAT showed comparatively better performance than did the other products. Using the maximized R method, SMAP, ASCAT, and AMSR2 products were combined one by one using the GLDAS dataset for reference SSM values. When the satellite products were combined, R-values of the combined products were improved or degraded depending on the VOD ranges produced, when compared with the results from the original products alone. The

The sensitivity of the atmospheric branch of the global water cycle to temperature fluctuations at synoptic to decadal time-scales in different satellite- and model-based products

Science.gov (United States)

Nogueira, Miguel

2018-02-01

Spectral analysis of global-mean precipitation, P, evaporation, E, precipitable water, W, and surface temperature, Ts, revealed significant variability from sub-daily to multi-decadal time-scales, superposed on high-amplitude diurnal and yearly peaks. Two distinct regimes emerged from a transition in the spectral exponents, β. The weather regime covering time-scales 1-2 years, while at time-scales global-ocean and full-globe averages, ρDCCA showed large spread of the C-C importance for P and E variability amongst different datasets at multi-year time-scales, ranging from negligible (governing mechanisms.

The Open Global Glacier Model

Science.gov (United States)

Marzeion, B.; Maussion, F.

2017-12-01

Mountain glaciers are one of the few remaining sub-systems of the global climate system for which no globally applicable, open source, community-driven model exists. Notable examples from the ice sheet community include the Parallel Ice Sheet Model or Elmer/Ice. While the atmospheric modeling community has a long tradition of sharing models (e.g. the Weather Research and Forecasting model) or comparing them (e.g. the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project or CMIP), recent initiatives originating from the glaciological community show a new willingness to better coordinate global research efforts following the CMIP example (e.g. the Glacier Model Intercomparison Project or the Glacier Ice Thickness Estimation Working Group). In the recent past, great advances have been made in the global availability of data and methods relevant for glacier modeling, spanning glacier outlines, automatized glacier centerline identification, bed rock inversion methods, and global topographic data sets. Taken together, these advances now allow the ice dynamics of glaciers to be modeled on a global scale, provided that adequate modeling platforms are available. Here, we present the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM), developed to provide a global scale, modular, and open source numerical model framework for consistently simulating past and future global scale glacier change. Global not only in the sense of leading to meaningful results for all glaciers combined, but also for any small ensemble of glaciers, e.g. at the headwater catchment scale. Modular to allow combinations of different approaches to the representation of ice flow and surface mass balance, enabling a new kind of model intercomparison. Open source so that the code can be read and used by anyone and so that new modules can be added and discussed by the community, following the principles of open governance. Consistent in order to provide uncertainty measures at all realizable scales.

Evaluating the effects of terrestrial ecosystems, climate and carbon dioxide on weathering over geological time: a global-scale process-based approach

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, Lyla L.; Banwart, Steve A.; Valdes, Paul J.; Leake, Jonathan R.; Beerling, David J.

2012-01-01

Global weathering of calcium and magnesium silicate rocks provides the long-term sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) on a timescale of millions of years by causing precipitation of calcium carbonates on the seafloor. Catchment-scale field studies consistently indicate that vegetation increases silicate rock weathering, but incorporating the effects of trees and fungal symbionts into geochemical carbon cycle models has relied upon simple empirical scaling functions. Here, we describe the development and application of a process-based approach to deriving quantitative estimates of weathering by plant roots, associated symbiotic mycorrhizal fungi and climate. Our approach accounts for the influence of terrestrial primary productivity via nutrient uptake on soil chemistry and mineral weathering, driven by simulations using a dynamic global vegetation model coupled to an ocean–atmosphere general circulation model of the Earth's climate. The strategy is successfully validated against observations of weathering in watersheds around the world, indicating that it may have some utility when extrapolated into the past. When applied to a suite of six global simulations from 215 to 50 Ma, we find significantly larger effects over the past 220 Myr relative to the present day. Vegetation and mycorrhizal fungi enhanced climate-driven weathering by a factor of up to 2. Overall, we demonstrate a more realistic process-based treatment of plant fungal–geosphere interactions at the global scale, which constitutes a first step towards developing ‘next-generation’ geochemical models. PMID:22232768

Global-Scale Patterns of Forest Fragmentation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kurt Riitters

2000-12-01

Full Text Available We report an analysis of forest fragmentation based on 1-km resolution land-cover maps for the globe. Measurements in analysis windows from 81 km 2 (9 x 9 pixels, "small" scale to 59,049 km 2 (243 x 243 pixels, "large" scale were used to characterize the fragmentation around each forested pixel. We identified six categories of fragmentation (interior, perforated, edge, transitional, patch, and undetermined from the amount of forest and its occurrence as adjacent forest pixels. Interior forest exists only at relatively small scales; at larger scales, forests are dominated by edge and patch conditions. At the smallest scale, there were significant differences in fragmentation among continents; within continents, there were significant differences among individual forest types. Tropical rain forest fragmentation was most severe in North America and least severe in Europe-Asia. Forest types with a high percentage of perforated conditions were mainly in North America (five types and Europe-Asia (four types, in both temperate and subtropical regions. Transitional and patch conditions were most common in 11 forest types, of which only a few would be considered as "naturally patchy" (e.g., dry woodland. The five forest types with the highest percentage of interior conditions were in North America; in decreasing order, they were cool rain forest, coniferous, conifer boreal, cool mixed, and cool broadleaf.

Global-scale patterns of forest fragmentation

Science.gov (United States)

Riitters, K.; Wickham, J.; O'Neill, R.; Jones, B.; Smith, E.

2000-01-01

We report an analysis of forest fragmentation based on 1-km resolution land-cover maps for the globe. Measurements in analysis windows from 81 km 2 (9 ?? 9 pixels, "small" scale) to 59,049 km 2 (243 ?? 243 pixels, "large" scale) were used to characterize the fragmentation around each forested pixel. We identified six categories of fragmentation (interior, perforated, edge, transitional, patch, and undetermined) from the amount of forest and its occurrence as adjacent forest pixels. Interior forest exists only at relatively small scales; at larger scales, forests are dominated by edge and patch conditions. At the smallest scale, there were significant differences in fragmentation among continents; within continents, there were significant differences among individual forest types. Tropical rain forest fragmentation was most severe in North America and least severe in Europe - Asia. Forest types with a high percentage of perforated conditions were mainly in North America (five types) and Europe - Asia (four types), in both temperate and subtropical regions. Transitional and patch conditions were most common in 11 forest types, of which only a few would be considered as "naturally patchy" (e.g., dry woodland). The five forest types with the highest percentage of interior conditions were in North America; in decreasing order, they were cool rain forest, coniferous, conifer boreal, cool mixed, and cool broadleaf. Copyright ?? 2000 by The Resilience Alliance.

Prospects for resilience and sustainability of urban socio-techno-ecological systems to evolving stressors at global, regional, and local scales (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Grimm, N. B.

2013-12-01

Urbanization is occurring at an accelerating rate against a backdrop of the numerous other globally significant environmental changes that are the hallmark of the Anthropocene. Thus an understanding of the environmental impacts of urbanization must recognize the multiscalar context of other environmental changes. Cities are focal points of human population, production, and consumption, including the generation of waste and most of the critical emissions to the atmosphere. They are highly modified and dominated by built structure. They are generally depauperate of species and harbor their own microclimates and hot spots of pollutants. But they also are centers of human creative activities, and in that capacity may provide platforms for the transition to a more sustainable world. A view of the city, a complex social-technological-ecological system, as both driver and responder to these multiple stressors is key to developing appropriate conceptual frameworks for understanding urban ecosystem change. The convergence of global environmental change, including climate change, and worldwide urbanization presents numerous challenges for sustainability that are manifest at global, regional, and local scales. This presentation will explore the current reality and future prospects for resilience of cities and, more specifically, urban water systems, to extant and changing stressors at these three scales. At the global scale, challenges of supplying water for three billion new urban residents in the coming decades are explored through a geography of water availability, quality, and accessibility. At regional scales, I highlight differences in solutions to climate change-related challenges that derive from geophysical and socioecological gradients. And, at the local scale, blended technological and ecological solutions to the challenges of urban stormwater and the 'new normal' are discussed, based on a case study in an arid urban ecosystem. Urban resilience and sustainability

High-Resolution Global Modeling of the Effects of Subgrid-Scale Clouds and Turbulence on Precipitating Cloud Systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bogenschutz, Peter [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Moeng, Chin-Hoh [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

2015-10-13

The PI’s at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Chin-Hoh Moeng and Peter Bogenschutz, have primarily focused their time on the implementation of the Simplified-Higher Order Turbulence Closure (SHOC; Bogenschutz and Krueger 2013) to the Multi-scale Modeling Framework (MMF) global model and testing of SHOC on deep convective cloud regimes.

The carbon cycle in a land surface model: modelling, validation and implementation at a global scale; Cycle du carbone dans un modele de surface continentale: modelisation, validation et mise en oeuvre a l'echelle globale

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gibelin, A L

2007-05-15

ISBA-A-gs is an option of the CNRM land surface model ISBA which allows for the simulation of carbon exchanges between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere. The model was implemented for the first time at the global scale as a stand-alone model. Several global simulations were performed to assess the sensitivity of the turbulent fluxes and Leaf Area Index to a doubling of the CO{sub 2} atmospheric concentration, and to the climate change simulated by the end of the 21. century. In addition, a new option of ISBA, referred to as ISBA-CC, was developed in order to simulate a more detailed ecosystem respiration by separating the autotrophic respiration and the heterotrophic respiration. The vegetation dynamics and the carbon fluxes were validated at a global scale using satellite datasets, and at a local scale using data from 26 sites of the FLUXNET network. All these results show that the model is sufficiently realistic to be coupled with a general circulation model, in order to account for interactions between the terrestrial biosphere, the atmosphere and the carbon cycle. (author)

Preparing for Exascale: Towards convection-permitting, global atmospheric simulations with the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS)

Science.gov (United States)

Heinzeller, Dominikus; Duda, Michael G.; Kunstmann, Harald

2017-04-01

With strong financial and political support from national and international initiatives, exascale computing is projected for the end of this decade. Energy requirements and physical limitations imply the use of accelerators and the scaling out to orders of magnitudes larger numbers of cores then today to achieve this milestone. In order to fully exploit the capabilities of these Exascale computing systems, existing applications need to undergo significant development. The Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) is a novel set of Earth system simulation components and consists of an atmospheric core, an ocean core, a land-ice core and a sea-ice core. Its distinct features are the use of unstructured Voronoi meshes and C-grid discretisation to address shortcomings of global models on regular grids and the use of limited area models nested in a forcing data set, with respect to parallel scalability, numerical accuracy and physical consistency. Here, we present work towards the application of the atmospheric core (MPAS-A) on current and future high performance computing systems for problems at extreme scale. In particular, we address the issue of massively parallel I/O by extending the model to support the highly scalable SIONlib library. Using global uniform meshes with a convection-permitting resolution of 2-3km, we demonstrate the ability of MPAS-A to scale out to half a million cores while maintaining a high parallel efficiency. We also demonstrate the potential benefit of a hybrid parallelisation of the code (MPI/OpenMP) on the latest generation of Intel's Many Integrated Core Architecture, the Intel Xeon Phi Knights Landing.

Leaf optical properties shed light on foliar trait variability at individual to global scales

Science.gov (United States)

Shiklomanov, A. N.; Serbin, S.; Dietze, M.

2016-12-01

Recent syntheses of large trait databases have contributed immensely to our understanding of drivers of plant function at the global scale. However, the global trade-offs revealed by such syntheses, such as the trade-off between leaf productivity and resilience (i.e. "leaf economics spectrum"), are often absent at smaller scales and fail to correlate with actual functional limitations. An improved understanding of how traits vary within communities, species, and individuals is critical to accurate representations of vegetation ecophysiology and ecological dynamics in ecosystem models. Spectral data from both field observations and remote sensing platforms present a potentially rich and widely available source of information on plant traits. In particular, the inversion of physically-based radiative transfer models (RTMs) is an effective and general method for estimating plant traits from spectral measurements. Here, we apply Bayesian inversion of the PROSPECT leaf RTM to a large database of field spectra and plant traits spanning tropical, temperate, and boreal forests, agricultural plots, arid shrublands, and tundra to identify dominant sources of variability and characterize trade-offs in plant functional traits. By leveraging such a large and diverse dataset, we re-calibrate the empirical absorption coefficients underlying the PROSPECT model and expand its scope to include additional leaf biochemical components, namely leaf nitrogen content. Our work provides a key methodological contribution as a physically-based retrieval of leaf nitrogen from remote sensing observations, and provides substantial insights about trait trade-offs related to plant acclimation, adaptation, and community assembly.

The Winter Cooling Trend in Eastern China during the Recent Global Warming Hiatus Period and Its Possible Reason

Science.gov (United States)

Lei, T.; Li, S.; Luo, F.; Han, Z.

2017-12-01

The authors analyzed the observed winter surface air temperature in eastern mainland China during the recent global warming hiatus period through 1998-2013. The results suggest a substantial cooling trend of about -1.0°/decade in Eastern China, Northeast China and Southeast China. Mechanism exploration indicates that the displacement of the East Asian upper-tropospheric jet and the associated Rossby wave may have contributed to the cooling trend. A southward shift of the East Asian polar together with a northward shift of the subtropical jet caused the enhancement of the northern East Asian trough and Siberian High. A diagnostic analysis suggests that the Arctic sea ice loss, ENSO and North Atlantic SST all play a role. With the three factors removed, the air temperature trend is -0.35, -0.08 and -0.44°/decade over East China, Northeast China and Southeast China, respectively.

NEWS Climatology Project: The State of the Water Cycle at Continental to Global Scales

Science.gov (United States)

Rodell, Matthew; LEcuyer, Tristan; Beaudoing, Hiroko Kato; Olson, Bill

2011-01-01

NASA's Energy and Water Cycle Study (NEWS) program fosters collaborative research towards improved quantification and prediction of water and energy cycle consequences of climate change. In order to measure change, it is first necessary to describe current conditions. The goal of the NEWS Water and Energy Cycle Climatology project is to develop "state of the global water cycle" and "state of the global energy cycle" assessments based on data from modern ground and space based observing systems and data integrating models. The project is a multiinstitutional collaboration with more than 20 active contributors. This presentation will describe results of the first stage of the water budget analysis, whose goal was to characterize the current state of the water cycle on mean monthly, continental scales. We examine our success in closing the water budget within the expected uncertainty range and the effects of forcing budget closure as a method for refining individual flux estimates.

Space Observations for Global Change

Science.gov (United States)

Rasool, S. I.

1991-01-01

There is now compelling evidence that man's activities are changing both the composition of the atmospheric and the global landscape quite drastically. The consequences of these changes on the global climate of the 21st century is currently a hotly debated subject. Global models of a coupled Earth-ocean-atmosphere system are still very primitive and progress in this area appears largely data limited, specially over the global biosphere. A concerted effort on monitoring biospheric functions on scales from pixels to global and days to decades needs to be coordinated on an international scale in order to address the questions related to global change. An international program of space observations and ground research was described.

A human-scale perspective on global warming: Zero emission year and personal quotas

Science.gov (United States)

Rojas, Maisa; Mac Lean, Claudia

2017-01-01

This article builds on the premise that human consumption of goods, food and transport are the ultimate drivers of climate change. However, the nature of the climate change problem (well described as a tragedy of the commons) makes it difficult for individuals to recognise their personal duty to implement behavioural changes to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Consequently, this article aims to analyse the climate change issue from a human-scale perspective, in which each of us has a clearly defined personal quota of CO2 emissions that limits our activity and there is a finite time during which CO2 emissions must be eliminated to achieve the “well below 2°C” warming limit set by the Paris Agreement of 2015 (COP21). Thus, this work’s primary contribution is to connect an equal per capita fairness approach to a global carbon budget, linking personal levels with planetary levels. Here, we show that a personal quota of 5.0 tons of CO2 yr-1 p-1 is a representative value for both past and future emissions; for this level of a constant per-capita emissions and without considering any mitigation, the global accumulated emissions compatible with the “well below 2°C” and 2°C targets will be exhausted by 2030 and 2050, respectively. These are references years that provide an order of magnitude of the time that is left to reverse the global warming trend. More realistic scenarios that consider a smooth transition toward a zero-emission world show that the global accumulated emissions compatible with the “well below 2°C” and 2°C targets will be exhausted by 2040 and 2080, respectively. Implications of this paper include a return to personal responsibility following equity principles among individuals, and a definition of boundaries to the personal emissions of CO2. PMID:28628676

A human-scale perspective on global warming: Zero emission year and personal quotas.

Science.gov (United States)

de la Fuente, Alberto; Rojas, Maisa; Mac Lean, Claudia

2017-01-01

This article builds on the premise that human consumption of goods, food and transport are the ultimate drivers of climate change. However, the nature of the climate change problem (well described as a tragedy of the commons) makes it difficult for individuals to recognise their personal duty to implement behavioural changes to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Consequently, this article aims to analyse the climate change issue from a human-scale perspective, in which each of us has a clearly defined personal quota of CO2 emissions that limits our activity and there is a finite time during which CO2 emissions must be eliminated to achieve the "well below 2°C" warming limit set by the Paris Agreement of 2015 (COP21). Thus, this work's primary contribution is to connect an equal per capita fairness approach to a global carbon budget, linking personal levels with planetary levels. Here, we show that a personal quota of 5.0 tons of CO2 yr-1 p-1 is a representative value for both past and future emissions; for this level of a constant per-capita emissions and without considering any mitigation, the global accumulated emissions compatible with the "well below 2°C" and 2°C targets will be exhausted by 2030 and 2050, respectively. These are references years that provide an order of magnitude of the time that is left to reverse the global warming trend. More realistic scenarios that consider a smooth transition toward a zero-emission world show that the global accumulated emissions compatible with the "well below 2°C" and 2°C targets will be exhausted by 2040 and 2080, respectively. Implications of this paper include a return to personal responsibility following equity principles among individuals, and a definition of boundaries to the personal emissions of CO2.

Consolidating drug data on a global scale using Linked Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Jovanovik, Milos; Trajanov, Dimitar

2017-01-21

Drug product data is available on the Web in a distributed fashion. The reasons lie within the regulatory domains, which exist on a national level. As a consequence, the drug data available on the Web are independently curated by national institutions from each country, leaving the data in varying languages, with a varying structure, granularity level and format, on different locations on the Web. Therefore, one of the main challenges in the realm of drug data is the consolidation and integration of large amounts of heterogeneous data into a comprehensive dataspace, for the purpose of developing data-driven applications. In recent years, the adoption of the Linked Data principles has enabled data publishers to provide structured data on the Web and contextually interlink them with other public datasets, effectively de-siloing them. Defining methodological guidelines and specialized tools for generating Linked Data in the drug domain, applicable on a global scale, is a crucial step to achieving the necessary levels of data consolidation and alignment needed for the development of a global dataset of drug product data. This dataset would then enable a myriad of new usage scenarios, which can, for instance, provide insight into the global availability of different drug categories in different parts of the world. We developed a methodology and a set of tools which support the process of generating Linked Data in the drug domain. Using them, we generated the LinkedDrugs dataset by seamlessly transforming, consolidating and publishing high-quality, 5-star Linked Drug Data from twenty-three countries, containing over 248,000 drug products, over 99,000,000 RDF triples and over 278,000 links to generic drugs from the LOD Cloud. Using the linked nature of the dataset, we demonstrate its ability to support advanced usage scenarios in the drug domain. The process of generating the LinkedDrugs dataset demonstrates the applicability of the methodological guidelines and the

Untitled

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

6–7 thousand kilometers similar to the observed ENSO anomaly scales). For such planetary scale phenomena, the nonlinear effects are not expected to be strong as the equatorial Rossby number, U/ſo Lº (where U is a typical velocity scale, Llength scale and flo is equatorial gradient of the Coriolis parameter) is quite small.

Education for Y'All: Global Neoliberalism and the Case for a Politics of Scale in Sustainability Education Policy

Science.gov (United States)

McKenzie, Marcia

2012-01-01

This article addresses the effects of neoliberalism as it operates through global and local educational policy, and in particular in relation to the United Nations' Education for Sustainable Development initiatives. It examines how a politics of scale is necessary in enabling critique and in rearticulating forms of education policy-making and…

Dry deposition velocities in the global multi-scale CTM MOCAGE

Science.gov (United States)

Michou, M.; Peuch, V.-H.

2003-04-01

Surface exchanges considered in the MOCAGE multiscale Chemistry and Transport Model (CTM) of Météo-France include dry deposition of gaseous species. To compute realistic time-dependent fluxes at the surface, a 2D interface between MOCAGE and ARPEGE, the French operational numerical weather prediction model, has been developed. Dry deposition of species including ozone, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen-containing compounds, long-lived and short-lived intermediates organic compounds, have been parameterised according to the [Wesely, 1989] scheme. A number of modifications has been made, for instance concerning the deposition against wet surfaces. The formulation of the aerodynamic resistance follows [Louis, 1979], and that of the stomatal resistance, the Interaction Soil Biosphere Atmosphere (ISBA) Météo-France scheme. Resistances are computed using the surface meteorological fields obtained from the analyses or forecasts of ARPEGE. Vegetation fields such as the Leaf Area Index are prescribed with a one-degree spatial resolution at the global scale, and a five-minute resolution over Europe. Calculated dry deposition velocities of ozone, sulfur dioxide and nitric acid have been evaluated against field experimental data at various locations around the world, from tropical regions, rain forest or savannah over Central Africa and Amazonia (EXPRESSO and LBA campaigns), to Mediterranean regions, including forested and crop sites (ESCOMPTE campaign), and temperate areas (deciduous and evergreen forests). Hourly values, monthly and seasonal means have been examined, as well as the impact of the model resolution, from 2 degrees over the globe to 0.08 degrees over regional domains. The contributions to the global budget of ozone of the deposition fluxes in these different regions of the globe will be also presented.

The carbon cycle in a land surface model: modelling, validation and implementation at a global scale; Cycle du carbone dans un modele de surface continentale: modelisation, validation et mise en oeuvre a l'echelle globale

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gibelin, A.L

2007-05-15

ISBA-A-gs is an option of the CNRM land surface model ISBA which allows for the simulation of carbon exchanges between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere. The model was implemented for the first time at the global scale as a stand-alone model. Several global simulations were performed to assess the sensitivity of the turbulent fluxes and Leaf Area Index to a doubling of the CO{sub 2} atmospheric concentration, and to the climate change simulated by the end of the 21. century. In addition, a new option of ISBA, referred to as ISBA-CC, was developed in order to simulate a more detailed ecosystem respiration by separating the autotrophic respiration and the heterotrophic respiration. The vegetation dynamics and the carbon fluxes were validated at a global scale using satellite datasets, and at a local scale using data from 26 sites of the FLUXNET network. All these results show that the model is sufficiently realistic to be coupled with a general circulation model, in order to account for interactions between the terrestrial biosphere, the atmosphere and the carbon cycle. (author)

Multi-Scale Governance of Sustainable Natural Resource Use—Challenges and Opportunities for Monitoring and Institutional Development at the National and Global Level

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stefan Bringezu

2016-08-01

Full Text Available In a globalized economy, the use of natural resources is determined by the demand of modern production and consumption systems, and by infrastructure development. Sustainable natural resource use will require good governance and management based on sound scientific information, data and indicators. There is a rich literature on natural resource management, yet the national and global scale and macro-economic policy making has been underrepresented. We provide an overview of the scholarly literature on multi-scale governance of natural resources, focusing on the information required by relevant actors from local to global scale. Global natural resource use is largely determined by national, regional, and local policies. We observe that in recent decades, the development of public policies of natural resource use has been fostered by an “inspiration cycle” between the research, policy and statistics community, fostering social learning. Effective natural resource policies require adequate monitoring tools, in particular indicators for the use of materials, energy, land, and water as well as waste and GHG emissions of national economies. We summarize the state-of-the-art of the application of accounting methods and data sources for national material flow accounts and indicators, including territorial and product-life-cycle based approaches. We show how accounts on natural resource use can inform the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs and argue that information on natural resource use, and in particular footprint indicators, will be indispensable for a consistent implementation of the SDGs. We recognize that improving the knowledge base for global natural resource use will require further institutional development including at national and international levels, for which we outline options.

Coordinating AgMIP data and models across global and regional scales for 1.5°C and 2.0°C assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alex C.; Antle, John; Elliott, Joshua; Ashfaq, Muhammad; Chatta, Ashfaq Ahmad; Ewert, Frank; Folberth, Christian; Hathie, Ibrahima; Havlik, Petr; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; MacCarthy, Dilys S.; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Contreras, Erik Mencos; Müller, Christoph; Perez-Dominguez, Ignacio; Phillips, Meridel; Porter, Cheryl; Raymundo, Rubi M.; Sands, Ronald D.; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Valdivia, Roberto O.; Valin, Hugo; Wiebe, Keith

2018-05-01

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has developed novel methods for Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of agriculture and food security in a changing world. The present study aims to perform a proof of concept of the CGRA to demonstrate advantages and challenges of the proposed framework. This effort responds to the request by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for the implications of limiting global temperature increases to 1.5°C and 2.0°C above pre-industrial conditions. The protocols for the 1.5°C/2.0°C assessment establish explicit and testable linkages across disciplines and scales, connecting outputs and inputs from the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs), Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble scenarios, global gridded crop models, global agricultural economics models, site-based crop models and within-country regional economics models. The CGRA consistently links disciplines, models and scales in order to track the complex chain of climate impacts and identify key vulnerabilities, feedbacks and uncertainties in managing future risk. CGRA proof-of-concept results show that, at the global scale, there are mixed areas of positive and negative simulated wheat and maize yield changes, with declines in some breadbasket regions, at both 1.5°C and 2.0°C. Declines are especially evident in simulations that do not take into account direct CO2 effects on crops. These projected global yield changes mostly resulted in increases in prices and areas of wheat and maize in two global economics models. Regional simulations for 1.5°C and 2.0°C using site-based crop models had mixed results depending on the region and the crop. In conjunction with price changes from the global economics models, productivity declines in the Punjab, Pakistan, resulted in

Coordinating AgMIP data and models across global and regional scales for 1.5°C and 2.0°C assessments.

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alex C; Antle, John; Elliott, Joshua; Ashfaq, Muhammad; Chatta, Ashfaq Ahmad; Ewert, Frank; Folberth, Christian; Hathie, Ibrahima; Havlik, Petr; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; MacCarthy, Dilys S; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Contreras, Erik Mencos; Müller, Christoph; Perez-Dominguez, Ignacio; Phillips, Meridel; Porter, Cheryl; Raymundo, Rubi M; Sands, Ronald D; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Valdivia, Roberto O; Valin, Hugo; Wiebe, Keith

2018-05-13

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has developed novel methods for Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of agriculture and food security in a changing world. The present study aims to perform a proof of concept of the CGRA to demonstrate advantages and challenges of the proposed framework. This effort responds to the request by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for the implications of limiting global temperature increases to 1.5°C and 2.0°C above pre-industrial conditions. The protocols for the 1.5°C/2.0°C assessment establish explicit and testable linkages across disciplines and scales, connecting outputs and inputs from the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs), Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble scenarios, global gridded crop models, global agricultural economics models, site-based crop models and within-country regional economics models. The CGRA consistently links disciplines, models and scales in order to track the complex chain of climate impacts and identify key vulnerabilities, feedbacks and uncertainties in managing future risk. CGRA proof-of-concept results show that, at the global scale, there are mixed areas of positive and negative simulated wheat and maize yield changes, with declines in some breadbasket regions, at both 1.5°C and 2.0°C. Declines are especially evident in simulations that do not take into account direct CO 2 effects on crops. These projected global yield changes mostly resulted in increases in prices and areas of wheat and maize in two global economics models. Regional simulations for 1.5°C and 2.0°C using site-based crop models had mixed results depending on the region and the crop. In conjunction with price changes from the global economics models, productivity declines in the Punjab, Pakistan, resulted in

Intermediate Models of Planetary Circulations in the Atmosphere and Ocean.

Science.gov (United States)

McWilliams, James C.; Gent, Peter R.

1980-08-01

Large-scale extratropical motions (with dimensions comparable to, or somewhat smaller than, the planetary radius) in the atmosphere and ocean exhibit a more restricted range of phenomena than are admissible in the primitive equations for fluid motions, and there have been many previous proposals for simpler, more phenomenologically limited models of these motions. The oldest and most successful of these is the quasi-geostrophic model. An extensive discussion is made of models intermediate between the quasi-geostrophic and primitive ones, some of which have been previously proposed [e.g., the balance equations (BE), where tendencies in the equation for the divergent component of velocity are neglected, or the geostrophic momentum approximation (GM), where ageostrophic accelerations are neglected relative to geostrophic ones] and some of which are derived here. Virtues of these models are assessed in the dual measure of nearly geostrophic momentum balance (i.e., small Rossby number) and approximate frontal structure (i.e., larger along-axis velocities and length scales than their cross-axis counterparts), since one or both of these circumstances is usually characteristic of planetary motions. Consideration is also given to various coordinate transformations, since they can yield simpler expressions for the governing differential equations of the intermediate models. In particular, a new set of coordinates is proposed, isentropic geostrophic coordinates,(IGC), which has the advantage of making implicit the advections due to ageostrophic horizontal and vertical velocities under various approximations. A generalization of quasi-geostrophy is made. named hypo-geostrophy (HG), which is an asymptotic approximation of one higher order accuracy in Rossby number. The governing equations are simplest in IGC for both HG and GM; we name the latter in these coordinates isentropic semi-geostrophy (ISG), in analogy to Hoskins' (1975) semi-geostrophy (SG). HG, GM and BE are, in our

Spring and Its Global Echo: Quantitative Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. V. Korotayev

2017-01-01

Full Text Available It is shown that the Arab Spring acted as a trigger for a global wave of socio-political destabilization, which signifi cantly exceeded the scale of the Arab Spring itself and affected absolutely all world-system zones. Only in 2011 the growth of the global number of largescale anti-government demonstrations, riots and political strikes was to a high degree (although not entirely due to their growth in the Arab world. In the ensuing years, the Arab countries rather made a negative contribution to a very noticeable further increase in the global number of large-scale anti-government demonstrations, riots and general strikes (the global intensity of all these three important types of socio-political destabilization continued to grow despite the decline in the Arab world. Thus, for all these three important indicators of sociopolitical destabilization, the scale of the global echo of the Arab Spring has overshadowed the scale of the Arab Spring itself. Only as regards the fourth considered indicator (major terrorist attacks / guerrilla warfare the scale of the global echo for the entire period considered did not overshadow the scale of the Arab Spring (and, incidentally, «Winter» - and in 2014-2015 Arab countries continued to make a disproportionate contribution to the historically record global values of this sad indicator – global number of major terrorist attacks/ guerilla warfare. To conclude, triggered by the Arab Spring, the global wave of socio-political destabilization led after 2010 to a very signifi cant growth of socio-political instability in absolutely all World System zones. However, this global destabilization wave manifested itself in different World System zones in different ways and not completely synchronously.

Tracking global change at local scales: Phenology for science, outreach, conservation

Science.gov (United States)

Sharron, Ed; Mitchell, Brian

2011-06-01

A Workshop Exploring the Use of Phenology Studies for Public Engagement; New Orleans, Louisiana, 14 March 2011 ; During a George Wright Society Conference session that was led by the USA National Phenology Network (USANPN; http://www.usanpn.org) and the National Park Service (NPS), professionals from government organizations, nonprofits, and higher-education institutions came together to explore the possibilities of using phenology monitoring to engage the public. One of the most visible effects of global change on ecosystems is shifts in phenology: the timing of biological events such as leafing and flowering, maturation of agricultural plants, emergence of insects, and migration of birds. These shifts are already occurring and reflect biological responses to climate change at local to regional scales. Changes in phenology have important implications for species ecology and resource management and, because they are place-based and tangible, serve as an ideal platform for education, outreach, and citizen science.

The thermal environment of the human being on the global scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Jendritzky, Gerd; Tinz, Birger

2009-11-11

The close relationship between human health, performance, well-being and the thermal environment is obvious. Nevertheless, most studies of climate and climate change impacts show amazing shortcomings in the assessment of the environment. Populations living in different climates have different susceptibilities, due to socio-economic reasons, and different customary behavioural adaptations. The global distribution of risks of hazardous thermal exposure has not been analysed before. To produce maps of the baseline and future bioclimate that allows a direct comparison of the differences in the vulnerability of populations to thermal stress across the world. The required climatological data fields are obtained from climate simulations with the global General Circulation Model ECHAM4 in T106-resolution. For the thermo-physiologically relevant assessment of these climate data a complete heat budget model of the human being, the 'Perceived Temperature' procedure has been applied which already comprises adaptation by clothing to a certain degree. Short-term physiological acclimatisation is considered via Health Related Assessment of the Thermal Environment. The global maps 1971-1980 (control run, assumed as baseline climate) show a pattern of thermal stress intensities as frequencies of heat. The heat load for people living in warm-humid climates is the highest. Climate change will lead to clear differences in health-related thermal stress between baseline climate and the future bioclimate 2041-2050 based on the 'business-as-usual' greenhouse gas scenario IS92a. The majority of the world's population will be faced with more frequent and more intense heat strain in spite of an assumed level of acclimatisation. Further adaptation measures are crucial in order to reduce the vulnerability of the populations. This bioclimatology analysis provides a tool for various questions in climate and climate change impact research. Considerations of regional or local scale require climate

The MUSIC of galaxy clusters - II. X-ray global properties and scaling relations

Science.gov (United States)

Biffi, V.; Sembolini, F.; De Petris, M.; Valdarnini, R.; Yepes, G.; Gottlöber, S.

2014-03-01

We present the X-ray properties and scaling relations of a large sample of clusters extracted from the Marenostrum MUltidark SImulations of galaxy Clusters (MUSIC) data set. We focus on a sub-sample of 179 clusters at redshift z ˜ 0.11, with 3.2 × 1014 h-1 M⊙ mass. We employed the X-ray photon simulator PHOX to obtain synthetic Chandra observations and derive observable-like global properties of the intracluster medium (ICM), as X-ray temperature (TX) and luminosity (LX). TX is found to slightly underestimate the true mass-weighted temperature, although tracing fairly well the cluster total mass. We also study the effects of TX on scaling relations with cluster intrinsic properties: total (M500 and gas Mg,500 mass; integrated Compton parameter (YSZ) of the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ) thermal effect; YX = Mg,500 TX. We confirm that YX is a very good mass proxy, with a scatter on M500-YX and YSZ-YX lower than 5 per cent. The study of scaling relations among X-ray, intrinsic and SZ properties indicates that simulated MUSIC clusters reasonably resemble the self-similar prediction, especially for correlations involving TX. The observational approach also allows for a more direct comparison with real clusters, from which we find deviations mainly due to the physical description of the ICM, affecting TX and, particularly, LX.

HIV scale-up in Mozambique: Exceptionalism, normalisation and global health

Science.gov (United States)

Høg, Erling

2014-01-01

The large-scale introduction of HIV and AIDS services in Mozambique from 2000 onwards occurred in the context of deep political commitment to sovereign nation-building and an important transition in the nation's health system. Simultaneously, the international community encountered a willing state partner that recognised the need to take action against the HIV epidemic. This article examines two critical policy shifts: sustained international funding and public health system integration (the move from parallel to integrated HIV services). The Mozambican government struggles to support its national health system against privatisation, NGO competition and internal brain drain. This is a sovereignty issue. However, the dominant discourse on self-determination shows a contradictory twist: it is part of the political rhetoric to keep the sovereignty discourse alive, while the real challenge is coordination, not partnerships. Nevertheless, we need more anthropological studies to understand the political implications of global health funding and governance. Other studies need to examine the consequences of public health system integration for the quality of access to health care. PMID:24499102

An index-based framework for assessing patterns and trends in river fragmentation and flow regulation by global dams at multiple scales

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grill, Günther; Lehner, Bernhard; Lumsdon, Alexander E; Zarfl, Christiane; MacDonald, Graham K; Reidy Liermann, Catherine

2015-01-01

The global number of dam constructions has increased dramatically over the past six decades and is forecast to continue to rise, particularly in less industrialized regions. Identifying development pathways that can deliver the benefits of new infrastructure while also maintaining healthy and productive river systems is a great challenge that requires understanding the multifaceted impacts of dams at a range of scales. New approaches and advanced methodologies are needed to improve predictions of how future dam construction will affect biodiversity, ecosystem functioning, and fluvial geomorphology worldwide, helping to frame a global strategy to achieve sustainable dam development. Here, we respond to this need by applying a graph-based river routing model to simultaneously assess flow regulation and fragmentation by dams at multiple scales using data at high spatial resolution. We calculated the cumulative impact of a set of 6374 large existing dams and 3377 planned or proposed dams on river connectivity and river flow at basin and subbasin scales by fusing two novel indicators to create a holistic dam impact matrix for the period 1930–2030. Static network descriptors such as basin area or channel length are of limited use in hierarchically nested and dynamic river systems, so we developed the river fragmentation index and the river regulation index, which are based on river volume. These indicators are less sensitive to the effects of network configuration, offering increased comparability among studies with disparate hydrographies as well as across scales. Our results indicate that, on a global basis, 48% of river volume is moderately to severely impacted by either flow regulation, fragmentation, or both. Assuming completion of all dams planned and under construction in our future scenario, this number would nearly double to 93%, largely due to major dam construction in the Amazon Basin. We provide evidence for the importance of considering small to medium

A comparison of changes in river runoff from multiple global and catchment-scale hydrological models under global warming scenarios of 1 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gosling, S.N.; Zaherpour, J.J.; Mount, N.J.; Hattermann, F.F.; Dankers, R.; Arheimer, B.; Breuer, L.; Ding, J.; Haddeland, I.; Kumar, R.; Kundu, D.; Liu, J.; van Griensven, A.; Veldkamp, T.I.E.; Vetter, T.; Wang, X.; Zhang, X.

2017-01-01

We present one of the first climate change impact assessments on river runoff that utilises an ensemble of global hydrological models (Glob-HMs) and an ensemble of catchment-scale hydrological models (Cat-HMs), across multiple catchments: the upper Amazon, Darling, Ganges, Lena, upper Mississippi,

Regionalizing global climate models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pitman, A.J.; Arneth, A.; Ganzeveld, L.N.

2012-01-01

Global climate models simulate the Earth's climate impressively at scales of continents and greater. At these scales, large-scale dynamics and physics largely define the climate. At spatial scales relevant to policy makers, and to impacts and adaptation, many other processes may affect regional and

The population genomics of begomoviruses: global scale population structure and gene flow

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Prasanna HC

2010-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The rapidly growing availability of diverse full genome sequences from across the world is increasing the feasibility of studying the large-scale population processes that underly observable pattern of virus diversity. In particular, characterizing the genetic structure of virus populations could potentially reveal much about how factors such as geographical distributions, host ranges and gene flow between populations combine to produce the discontinuous patterns of genetic diversity that we perceive as distinct virus species. Among the richest and most diverse full genome datasets that are available is that for the dicotyledonous plant infecting genus, Begomovirus, in the Family Geminiviridae. The begomoviruses all share the same whitefly vector, are highly recombinogenic and are distributed throughout tropical and subtropical regions where they seriously threaten the food security of the world's poorest people. Results We focus here on using a model-based population genetic approach to identify the genetically distinct sub-populations within the global begomovirus meta-population. We demonstrate the existence of at least seven major sub-populations that can further be sub-divided into as many as thirty four significantly differentiated and genetically cohesive minor sub-populations. Using the population structure framework revealed in the present study, we further explored the extent of gene flow and recombination between genetic populations. Conclusions Although geographical barriers are apparently the most significant underlying cause of the seven major population sub-divisions, within the framework of these sub-divisions, we explore patterns of gene flow to reveal that both host range differences and genetic barriers to recombination have probably been major contributors to the minor population sub-divisions that we have identified. We believe that the global Begomovirus population structure revealed here could

Developing and Deploying Knowledge on a Global Scale

OpenAIRE

Borron, James; Morales, David; Klahr, Philip

1996-01-01

Reuters is a worldwide company focused on supplying financial and news information to its more than 40,000 subscribers around the world. To enhance the quality and consistency of its customer- support organization, Reuters embarked on a global knowledge development and reuse project. The resulting system is in operational use in North America, Europe, and Asia. The system supports 38 Reuter products worldwide. This article presents a case study of Reuter experience in putting a global knowled...

Climate change, livelihoods and the multiple determinants of water adequacy: two approaches at regional to global scale

Science.gov (United States)

Lissner, Tabea; Reusser, Dominik

2015-04-01

Inadequate access to water is already a problem in many regions of the world and processes of global change are expected to further exacerbate the situation. Many aspects determine the adequacy of water resources: beside actual physical water stress, where the resource itself is limited, economic and social water stress can be experienced if access to resource is limited by inadequate infrastructure, political or financial constraints. To assess the adequacy of water availability for human use, integrated approaches are needed that allow to view the multiple determinants in conjunction and provide sound results as a basis for informed decisions. This contribution proposes two parts of an integrated approach to look at the multiple dimensions of water scarcity at regional to global scale. These were developed in a joint project with the German Development Agency (GIZ). It first outlines the AHEAD approach to measure Adequate Human livelihood conditions for wEll-being And Development, implemented at global scale and at national resolution. This first approach allows viewing impacts of climate change, e.g. changes in water availability, within the wider context of AHEAD conditions. A specific focus lies on the uncertainties in projections of climate change and future water availability. As adequate water access is not determined by water availability alone, in a second step we develop an approach to assess the water requirements for different sectors in more detail, including aspects of quantity, quality as well as access, in an integrated way. This more detailed approach is exemplified at region-scale in Indonesia and South Africa. Our results show that in many regions of the world, water scarcity is a limitation to AHEAD conditions in many countries, regardless of differing modelling output. The more detailed assessments highlight the relevance of additional aspects to assess the adequacy of water for human use, showing that in many regions, quality and

Local to Global Scale Time Series Analysis of US Dryland Degradation Using Landsat, AVHRR, and MODIS

Science.gov (United States)

Washington-Allen, R. A.; Ramsey, R. D.; West, N. E.; Kulawardhana, W.; Reeves, M. C.; Mitchell, J. E.; Van Niel, T. G.

2011-12-01

Drylands cover 41% of the terrestrial land surface and annually generate $1 trillion in ecosystem goods and services for 38% of the global population, yet estimates of the global extent of Dryland degradation is uncertain with a range of 10 - 80%. It is currently understood that Drylands exhibit topological complexity including self-organization of parameters of different levels-of-organization, e.g., ecosystem and landscape parameters such as soil and vegetation pattern and structure, that gradually or discontinuously shift to multiple basins of attraction in response to herbivory, fire, and climatic drivers at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Our research has shown that at large geographic scales, contemporaneous time series of 10 to 20 years for response and driving variables across two or more spatial scales is required to replicate and differentiate between the impact of climate and land use activities such as commercial grazing. For example, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a major driver of Dryland net primary productivity (NPP), biodiversity, and ecological resilience with a 10-year return interval, thus 20 years of data are required to replicate its impact. Degradation is defined here as a change in physiognomic composition contrary to management goals, a persistent reduction in vegetation response, e.g., NPP, accelerated soil erosion, a decline in soil quality, and changes in landscape configuration and structure that lead to a loss of ecosystem function. Freely available Landsat, Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradimeter (MODIS) archives of satellite imagery exist that provide local to global spatial coverage and time series between 1972 to the present from which proxies of land degradation can be derived. This paper presents time series assessments between 1972 and 2011 of US Dryland degradation including early detection of dynamic regime shifts in the Mojave and landscape pattern and

Towards forecasting volcanic eruptions on a global scale

Science.gov (United States)

Hooper, A. J.; Heimisson, E. R.; Gaddes, M.; Bagnardi, M.; Sigmundsson, F.; Spaans, K.; Parks, M.; Gudmundsson, M. T.; Ebmeier, S. K.; Holohan, E. P.; Wright, T. J.; Jonsdottir, K.; Hreinsdottir, S.; Dumont, S.; Ofeigsson, B.; Vogfjord, K. S.

2016-12-01

Volcanic eruptions can cause loss of life, damage health, and have huge economic impacts, providing strong societal motivation for predicting eruptive behavior prior to and during eruptions. I will present here recent progress we have made in mechanical modelling with a predictive capacity, and how we are expanding volcano monitoring to a global scale. The eruption of Bardarbunga volcano, Iceland, in 2014-2015 was the largest eruption there for more than 200 years, producing 1.6 km3of lava. Prior to eruption, magma propagated almost 50 km beneath the surface, over a period of two weeks. Key questions to answer in advance of such eruptions are: will it erupt, where, how much and for how long? We developed a model based on magma taking a path that maximizes energy release, which aligns well with the actual direction taken. Our model also predicts eruption in a topographic low, as actually occurred. As magma was withdrawn, the volcano surface sagged downwards. A coupled model of magma flow and piston-like collapse predicts a declining magma flow rate and ground subsidence rate, in accordance with that observed. With such a model, observations can be used to predict the timescale and rates of eruption, even before one starts. The primary data needed to constrain these predictive models are measurements of surface deformation. In Iceland, this is achieved using high accuracy GPS, however, most volcanoes have no ground instrumentation. A recent ESA mission, Sentinel-1, can potentially image deformation at almost all subaerial volcanoes every 6 days, using a technique called interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR). This will allow us to detect early stages of magma migration at any volcano, then task other satellites to acquire data at a higher rate. We are working on a system to process all Sentinel-1 data in near-real time, which is a big data challenge. We have also developed new algorithms that maximize signal extraction from each new acquisition and

Satellite Leaf Area Index: Global Scale Analysis of the Tendencies Per Vegetation Type Over the Last 17 Years

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Simon Munier

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The main objective of this study is to detect and quantify changes in the vegetation dynamics of each vegetation type at the global scale over the last 17 years. With recent advances in remote sensing techniques, it is now possible to study the Leaf Area Index (LAI seasonal and interannual variability at the global scale and in a consistent way over the last decades. However, the coarse spatial resolution of these satellite-derived products does not permit distinguishing vegetation types within mixed pixels. Considering only the dominant type per pixel has two main drawbacks: the LAI of the dominant vegetation type is contaminated by spurious signal from other vegetation types and at the global scale, significant areas of individual vegetation types are neglected. In this study, we first developed a Kalman Filtering (KF approach to disaggregate the satellite-derived LAI from GEOV1 over nine main vegetation types, including grasslands and crops as well as evergreen, broadleaf and coniferous forests. The KF approach permits the separation of distinct LAI values for individual vegetation types that coexist within a pixel. The disaggregated LAI product, called LAI-MC (Multi-Cover, consists of world-wide LAI maps provided every 10 days for each vegetation type over the 1999–2015 period. A trend analysis of the original GEOV1 LAI product and of the disaggregated LAI time series was conducted using the Mann-Kendall test. Resulting trends of the GEOV1 LAI (which accounts for all vegetation types compare well with previous regional or global studies, showing a greening over a large part of the globe. When considering each vegetation type individually, the largest global trend from LAI-MC is found for coniferous forests (0.0419 m 2 m − 2 yr − 1 followed by summer crops (0.0394 m 2 m − 2 yr − 1 , while winter crops and grasslands show the smallest global trends (0.0261 m 2 m − 2 yr − 1 and 0.0279 m 2 m − 2 yr − 1 , respectively. The LAI

The Effects of Bursty Bulk Flows on Global-Scale Current Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Y.; Cao, J.; Fu, H.; Lu, H.; Yao, Z.

2017-12-01

Using a global magnetospheric MHD model coupled with a kinetic ring current model, we investigate the effects of magnetotail dynamics, particularly the earthward bursty bulk flows (BBFs) produced by the tail reconnection, on the global-scale current systems. The simulation results indicate that after BBFs brake around X = -10 RE due to the dipolar "magnetic wall," vortices are generated on the edge of the braking region and inside the inner magnetosphere. Each pair of vortex in the inner magnetosphere disturbs the westward ring current to arc radially inward as well as toward high latitudes. The resultant pressure gradient on the azimuthal direction induces region-1 sense field-aligned component from the ring current, which eventually is diverted into the ionosphere at high latitudes, giving rise to a pair of field-aligned current (FAC) eddies in the ionosphere. On the edge of the flow braking region where vortices also emerge, a pair of region-1 sense FACs arises, diverted fromthe cross-tail duskward current, generating a substorm current wedge. This is again attributed to the increase of thermal pressure ahead of the bursty flows turning azimuthally. It is further found that when multiple BBFs, despite their localization, continually and rapidly impinge on the "wall," carrying sufficient tail plasma sheet population toward the Earth, they can lead to the formation of a new ring current. These results indicate the important role that BBFs play in bridging the tail and the inner magnetosphere ring current and bring new insight into the storm-substorm relation.

Comparison and Evaluation of Global Scale Studies of Vulnerability and Risks to Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Muccione, Veruska; Allen, Simon K.; Huggel, Christian; Birkmann, Joern

2015-04-01

Understanding the present and future distribution of different climate change impacts and vulnerability to climate change is a central subject in the context of climate justice and international climate policy. Commonly, it is claimed that poor countries that contributed little to anthropogenic climate change are those most affected and most vulnerable to climate change. Such statements are backed by a number of global-scale vulnerability studies, which identified poor countries as most vulnerable. However, some studies have challenged this view, likewise highlighting the high vulnerability of richer countries. Overall, no consensus has been reached so far about which concept of vulnerability should be applied and what type of indicators should be considered. Furthermore, there is little agreement which specific countries are most vulnerable. This is a major concern in view of the need to inform international climate policy, all the more if such assessments should contribute to allocate climate adaptation funds as was invoked at some instances. We argue that next to the analysis of who is most vulnerable, it is also important to better understand and compare different vulnerability profiles assessed in present global studies. We perform a systematic literature review of global vulnerability assessments with the scope to highlight vulnerability distribution patterns. We then compare these distributions with global risk distributions in line with revised and adopted concepts by most recent IPCC reports. It emerges that improved differentiation of key drivers of risk and the understanding of different vulnerability profiles are important contributions, which can inform future adaptation policies at the regional and national level. This can change the perspective on, and basis for distributional issues in view of climate burden share, and therefore can have implications for UNFCCC financing instruments (e.g. Green Climate Fund). However, in order to better compare

Field Strain Measurement on the Fiber Scale in Carbon Fiber Reinforced Polymers Using Global Finite-Element Based Digital Image Correlation

KAUST Repository

Tao, Ran

2015-01-01

is aimed to accurately measure the displacement and strain fields at the fiber-matrix scale in a cross-ply composite. First, the theories of both local subset-based digital image correlation (DIC) and global finite-element based DIC are outlined. Second, in

A new synoptic scale resolving global climate simulation using the Community Earth System Model

Science.gov (United States)

Small, R. Justin; Bacmeister, Julio; Bailey, David; Baker, Allison; Bishop, Stuart; Bryan, Frank; Caron, Julie; Dennis, John; Gent, Peter; Hsu, Hsiao-ming; Jochum, Markus; Lawrence, David; Muñoz, Ernesto; diNezio, Pedro; Scheitlin, Tim; Tomas, Robert; Tribbia, Joseph; Tseng, Yu-heng; Vertenstein, Mariana

2014-12-01

High-resolution global climate modeling holds the promise of capturing planetary-scale climate modes and small-scale (regional and sometimes extreme) features simultaneously, including their mutual interaction. This paper discusses a new state-of-the-art high-resolution Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulation that was performed with these goals in mind. The atmospheric component was at 0.25° grid spacing, and ocean component at 0.1°. One hundred years of "present-day" simulation were completed. Major results were that annual mean sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial Pacific and El-Niño Southern Oscillation variability were well simulated compared to standard resolution models. Tropical and southern Atlantic SST also had much reduced bias compared to previous versions of the model. In addition, the high resolution of the model enabled small-scale features of the climate system to be represented, such as air-sea interaction over ocean frontal zones, mesoscale systems generated by the Rockies, and Tropical Cyclones. Associated single component runs and standard resolution coupled runs are used to help attribute the strengths and weaknesses of the fully coupled run. The high-resolution run employed 23,404 cores, costing 250 thousand processor-hours per simulated year and made about two simulated years per day on the NCAR-Wyoming supercomputer "Yellowstone."

Environmental degradation, global food production, and risk for large-scale migrations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doeoes, B.R.

1994-01-01

This paper attempts to estimate to what extent global food production is affected by the ongoing environmental degradation through processes, such as soil erosion, salinization, chemical contamination, ultraviolet radiation, and biotic stress. Estimates have also been made of available opportunities to improve food production efficiency by, e.g., increased use of fertilizers, irrigation, and biotechnology, as well as improved management. Expected losses and gains of agricultural land in competition with urbanization, industrial development, and forests have been taken into account. Although estimated gains in food production deliberately have been overestimated and losses underestimated, calculations indicate that during the next 30-35 years the annual net gain in food production will be significantly lower than the rate of world population growth. An attempt has also been made to identify possible scenarios for large-scale migrations, caused mainly by rapid population growth in combination with insufficient local food production and poverty. 18 refs, 7 figs, 6 tabs

Calculating Clinically Significant Change: Applications of the Clinical Global Impressions (CGI) Scale to Evaluate Client Outcomes in Private Practice

Science.gov (United States)

Kelly, Peter James

2010-01-01

The Clinical Global Impressions (CGI) scale is a therapist-rated measure of client outcome that has been widely used within the research literature. The current study aimed to develop reliable and clinically significant change indices for the CGI, and to demonstrate its application in private psychological practice. Following the guidelines…

Chapter 6. Scaling Up Solutions to State, National and Global Levels

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel Kammen

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Scaling-up solutions require learning and adapting lessons between locations and at different scales. To accomplish this, common metrics are vital to building a shared language. For California, this has meant careful financial, cradle-to-grave life-cycle assessment methods leading to carbon accounting in many avenues of government (via the Low Carbon Fuel Standard or the Cap and Trade program. These methods themselves interact, such as the use of carbon accounting for the resources needed to manage water and other key resources; the use of criteria air pollution monitoring to identify environmental injustices; and the use of carbon market revenues to address these inequalities, through investment in best available abatement technologies (BACT and in job creation in disadvantaged communities anticipated in the emerging clean energy sector.  Creating interdisciplinary partnerships across the UC Campuses and the National Laboratories to innovate science and technology is critical to scalable carbon neutrality solutions. As an example, we can build coordinated research and development programs across UC and California, with strong partnerships with the Federal government to coordinate and “multiply” resources that accelerate development and deployment. These partnerships should be strongly goal-focused, i.e., they are created to solve specific, large problems, to enable quantitatively measurable outcomes within energy generation, efficiency and CO2 abatement categories. Intersectoral partnerships should be fostered across campuses, laboratories, with state, federal and multi-lateral organizations funding to develop technologies and deploy solutions at scale. Integrated partnerships with industry are required to influence markets, deploy solutions, and create new industries and jobs.  Beyond California, we need to establish consortia with industry and foundations to deploy solutions at the regional, state, national, and international scale to

Inter-rater reliability of the German version of the Nurses' Global Assessment of Suicide Risk scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Kozel, Bernd; Grieser, Manuela; Abderhalden, Christoph; Cutcliffe, John R

2016-10-01

In comparison to the general population, the suicide rates of psychiatric inpatient populations in Germany and Switzerland are very high. An important preventive contribution to the lowering of the suicide rates in mental health care is to ensure that the risk of suicide of psychiatric inpatients is assessed as accurately as possible. While risk-assessment instruments can serve an important function in determining such risk, very few have been translated to German. Therefore, in the present study, we reported on the German version of Nurses' Global Assessment of Suicide Risk (NGASR) scale. After translating the original instrument into German and pretesting the German version, we tested the inter-rater reliability of the instrument. Twelve video case studies were evaluated by 13 raters with the NGASR scale in a 'laboratory' trial. In each case, the observer's agreement was calculated for the single items, the overall scale, the risk levels, and the sum scores. The statistical data analysis was conducted with kappa and AC1 statistics for dichotomous (items, scale) scales. A high-to-very high observers' agreement (AC1: 0.62-1.00, kappa: 0.00-1.00) was determined for 16 items of the German version of the NGASR scale. We conclude that the German version of the NGASR scale is a reliable instrument for evaluating risk factors for suicide. A reliable application in the clinical practise appears to be enhanced by training in the use of the instrument and the right implementation instructions. © 2016 Australian College of Mental Health Nurses Inc.

Dissonance and harmony between global and regional-scale seismic anisotropy and mantle dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Becker, T. W.

2017-12-01

Huge numbers of SKS splitting observations and improved surface-wave based models of azimuthal anisotropy have advanced our understanding of how convection is recorded in mantle fabrics in the upper mantle. However, we are still debating the relative importance of frozen to actively forming olivine fabrics, subduction zone anisotropy lacks a clear reference model, and regional marine studies yield conflicting evidence as to what exactly is going on at the base of the plates and below. Here, I review the degree of agreement between regional and global observations of seismic anisotropy and how well those may be matched by first-order mantle convection models. Updated bean counting can help contextualize the spatial scales of alignment, and I discuss several examples of the relative roles of plate shear to mantle density anomalies and frozen-in structure for oceanic and continental plates. Resolution of seismological models is globally uneven, but there are some locales where such exercises may yield information on the relative strength of asthenosphere and mantle. Another long-standing question is how olivine fabrics record flow under different stress and volatile conditions. I illustrate how different petrological assumptions might be used to reconcile observations of azimuthal dependency of wave speeds for both Love and Rayleigh waves, and how this could improve our models of the upper mantle, much in the spirit of Montagner's vectorial tomography. This is but one approach to improve the regional realism of global geodynamic background models to understand where in space and time dissonance arises, and if a harmonious model may yet be constructed given our assumptions about the workings of the mantle.

Modeling Root Exudation, Priming and Protection in Soil Carbon Responses to Elevated CO2 from Ecosystem to Global Scales

Science.gov (United States)

Sulman, B. N.; Phillips, R.; Shevliakova, E.; Oishi, A. C.; Pacala, S. W.

2014-12-01

The sensitivity of soil organic carbon (SOC) to changing environmental conditions represents a critical uncertainty in coupled carbon cycle-climate models. Much of this uncertainty arises from our limited understanding of the extent to which plants induce SOC losses (through accelerated decomposition or "priming") or promote SOC gains (via stabilization through physico-chemical protection). We developed a new SOC model, "Carbon, Organisms, Rhizosphere and Protection in the Soil Environment" (CORPSE), to examine the net effect of priming and protection in response to rising atmospheric CO2, and conducted simulations of rhizosphere priming effects at both ecosystem and global scales. At the ecosystem scale, the model successfully captured and explained disparate SOC responses at the Duke and Oak Ridge free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiments. We show that stabilization of "new" carbon in protected SOC pools may equal or exceed microbial priming of "old" SOC in ecosystems with readily decomposable litter (e.g. Oak Ridge). In contrast, carbon losses owing to priming dominate the net SOC response in ecosystems with more resistant litters (e.g. Duke). For global simulations, the model was fully integrated into the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) land model LM3. Globally, priming effects driven by enhanced root exudation and expansion of the rhizosphere reduced SOC storage in the majority of terrestrial areas, partially counterbalancing SOC gains from the enhanced ecosystem productivity driven by CO2 fertilization. Collectively, our results suggest that SOC stocks globally depend not only on temperature and moisture, but also on vegetation responses to environmental changes, and that protected C may provide an important constraint on priming effects.

Assessment of competence for caesarean section with global rating scale

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qureshi, R.N.; Ali, S.K.

2013-01-01

Objective: To establish as reliable and valid the nine-point global rating scale for assessing residents' independent performance of Caesarean Section. Methods: The validation study was conducted at the Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Aga Khan University Hospital, from April to December 2008, and comprised 15 residents during 40 Caesarean Sections over 9 months. Independently two evaluators rated each procedure and the difficulty of each case. Results: The observations per faculty ranged from 1-8 (mean 4.07+- 2.56). The Year 4 residents were observed the most i.e. 32 (40%), followed by Year 3, 30 (37.5%); Year 2; 14 (17.5%); and Year 1, 4 (5%). Mean time required for observation of the surgery was 43.81+-14.28 (range: 20-90) with a mode of 45 min. Mean aggregate rating on all items showed gradual progression with the year of residency. The assessment tool had an internal consistency reliability (Cronbach's alpha) of 0.9097 with low inter-rater reliability. Conclusion: The evaluation tool was found to be reliable and valid for evaluating a resident's competence for performing Caesarean Section. Training of the assessors is required for a better inter-rater agreement. (author)

Wintertime westward-traveling planetary-scale perturbations over the Euro-Atlantic region

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Doblas-Reyes, F.J. [Centro de Astrobiologia, INTA, Madrid (Spain); Pastor, M.A.; Casado, M.J. [Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia, Madrid (Spain); Deque, M. [CNRM, Meteo-France, Toulouse (France)

2001-07-01

The features of the wintertime westward-traveling planetary scale perturbations over the Euro-Atlantic region are examined through the use of space-time spectral analysis applied to the 500 hPa geopotential height field. The intention is to understand the nature of these phenomena and the performance of climate models. Data from both ECMWF re-analyses and a simulation from the ARPEGE general circulation model are used. Westward-traveling planetary scale transients are found over the region as local perturbations resembling Rossby normal modes, with a maximum power over the Eastern Atlantic. The westward-traveling planetary scale transients north of 40 {sup circle} N have periods larger than 20 days. South of this latitude, wave periods are shifted to a band around 10 days, so that they can be related to subtropical transient waves. The atmospheric model used, like other models which exhibit reasonable mean climatic properties, tend to have less overall intraseasonal variability than observed. Nevertheless, the model is able to capture most of the features of the westward-traveling low-frequency transients. The differences in basic state, partially produced by scale interactions, would lead to the generation of westward-traveling waves in the model distinct from the observed. However, it is suggested that the improvement of the present model version with regard to previous model versions is due to a better simulation of the time-mean state. The reasonable simulation of the synoptic-scale variability south of 50 {sup circle} N, and thus of its barotropic forcing on the basic state, may also help to explain the realistic westward-traveling transients in the model. (orig.)

Global fits of GUT-scale SUSY models with GAMBIT

Science.gov (United States)

Athron, Peter; Balázs, Csaba; Bringmann, Torsten; Buckley, Andy; Chrząszcz, Marcin; Conrad, Jan; Cornell, Jonathan M.; Dal, Lars A.; Edsjö, Joakim; Farmer, Ben; Jackson, Paul; Krislock, Abram; Kvellestad, Anders; Mahmoudi, Farvah; Martinez, Gregory D.; Putze, Antje; Raklev, Are; Rogan, Christopher; de Austri, Roberto Ruiz; Saavedra, Aldo; Savage, Christopher; Scott, Pat; Serra, Nicola; Weniger, Christoph; White, Martin

2017-12-01

We present the most comprehensive global fits to date of three supersymmetric models motivated by grand unification: the constrained minimal supersymmetric standard model (CMSSM), and its Non-Universal Higgs Mass generalisations NUHM1 and NUHM2. We include likelihoods from a number of direct and indirect dark matter searches, a large collection of electroweak precision and flavour observables, direct searches for supersymmetry at LEP and Runs I and II of the LHC, and constraints from Higgs observables. Our analysis improves on existing results not only in terms of the number of included observables, but also in the level of detail with which we treat them, our sampling techniques for scanning the parameter space, and our treatment of nuisance parameters. We show that stau co-annihilation is now ruled out in the CMSSM at more than 95% confidence. Stop co-annihilation turns out to be one of the most promising mechanisms for achieving an appropriate relic density of dark matter in all three models, whilst avoiding all other constraints. We find high-likelihood regions of parameter space featuring light stops and charginos, making them potentially detectable in the near future at the LHC. We also show that tonne-scale direct detection will play a largely complementary role, probing large parts of the remaining viable parameter space, including essentially all models with multi-TeV neutralinos.

Global fits of GUT-scale SUSY models with GAMBIT

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Athron, Peter [Monash University, School of Physics and Astronomy, Melbourne, VIC (Australia); Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Particle Physics at the Tera-scale (Australia); Balazs, Csaba [Monash University, School of Physics and Astronomy, Melbourne, VIC (Australia); Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Particle Physics at the Tera-scale (Australia); Bringmann, Torsten; Dal, Lars A.; Krislock, Abram; Raklev, Are [University of Oslo, Department of Physics, Oslo (Norway); Buckley, Andy [University of Glasgow, SUPA, School of Physics and Astronomy, Glasgow (United Kingdom); Chrzaszcz, Marcin [Universitaet Zuerich, Physik-Institut, Zurich (Switzerland); H. Niewodniczanski Institute of Nuclear Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Krakow (Poland); Conrad, Jan; Edsjoe, Joakim; Farmer, Ben [AlbaNova University Centre, Oskar Klein Centre for Cosmoparticle Physics, Stockholm (Sweden); Stockholm University, Department of Physics, Stockholm (Sweden); Cornell, Jonathan M. [McGill University, Department of Physics, Montreal, QC (Canada); Jackson, Paul; White, Martin [Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Particle Physics at the Tera-scale (Australia); University of Adelaide, Department of Physics, Adelaide, SA (Australia); Kvellestad, Anders; Savage, Christopher [NORDITA, Stockholm (Sweden); Mahmoudi, Farvah [Univ Lyon, Univ Lyon 1, CNRS, ENS de Lyon, Centre de Recherche Astrophysique de Lyon UMR5574, Saint-Genis-Laval (France); Theoretical Physics Department, CERN, Geneva (Switzerland); Martinez, Gregory D. [University of California, Physics and Astronomy Department, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Putze, Antje [LAPTh, Universite de Savoie, CNRS, Annecy-le-Vieux (France); Rogan, Christopher [Harvard University, Department of Physics, Cambridge, MA (United States); Ruiz de Austri, Roberto [IFIC-UV/CSIC, Instituto de Fisica Corpuscular, Valencia (Spain); Saavedra, Aldo [Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Particle Physics at the Tera-scale (Australia); The University of Sydney, Faculty of Engineering and Information Technologies, Centre for Translational Data Science, School of Physics, Camperdown, NSW (Australia); Scott, Pat [Imperial College London, Department of Physics, Blackett Laboratory, London (United Kingdom); Serra, Nicola [Universitaet Zuerich, Physik-Institut, Zurich (Switzerland); Weniger, Christoph [University of Amsterdam, GRAPPA, Institute of Physics, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Collaboration: The GAMBIT Collaboration

2017-12-15

We present the most comprehensive global fits to date of three supersymmetric models motivated by grand unification: the constrained minimal supersymmetric standard model (CMSSM), and its Non-Universal Higgs Mass generalisations NUHM1 and NUHM2. We include likelihoods from a number of direct and indirect dark matter searches, a large collection of electroweak precision and flavour observables, direct searches for supersymmetry at LEP and Runs I and II of the LHC, and constraints from Higgs observables. Our analysis improves on existing results not only in terms of the number of included observables, but also in the level of detail with which we treat them, our sampling techniques for scanning the parameter space, and our treatment of nuisance parameters. We show that stau co-annihilation is now ruled out in the CMSSM at more than 95% confidence. Stop co-annihilation turns out to be one of the most promising mechanisms for achieving an appropriate relic density of dark matter in all three models, whilst avoiding all other constraints. We find high-likelihood regions of parameter space featuring light stops and charginos, making them potentially detectable in the near future at the LHC. We also show that tonne-scale direct detection will play a largely complementary role, probing large parts of the remaining viable parameter space, including essentially all models with multi-TeV neutralinos. (orig.)

EQUATORIAL SUPERROTATION ON TIDALLY LOCKED EXOPLANETS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Showman, Adam P.; Polvani, Lorenzo M.

2011-01-01

The increasing richness of exoplanet observations has motivated a variety of three-dimensional (3D) atmospheric circulation models of these planets. Under strongly irradiated conditions, models of tidally locked, short-period planets (both hot Jupiters and terrestrial planets) tend to exhibit a circulation dominated by a fast eastward, or 'superrotating', jet stream at the equator. When the radiative and advection timescales are comparable, this phenomenon can cause the hottest regions to be displaced eastward from the substellar point by tens of degrees longitude. Such an offset has been subsequently observed on HD 189733b, supporting the possibility of equatorial jets on short-period exoplanets. Despite its relevance, however, the dynamical mechanisms responsible for generating the equatorial superrotation in such models have not been identified. Here, we show that the equatorial jet results from the interaction of the mean flow with standing Rossby waves induced by the day-night thermal forcing. The strong longitudinal variations in radiative heating-namely intense dayside heating and nightside cooling-trigger the formation of standing, planetary-scale equatorial Rossby and Kelvin waves. The Rossby waves develop phase tilts that pump eastward momentum from high latitudes to the equator, thereby inducing equatorial superrotation. We present an analytic theory demonstrating this mechanism and explore its properties in a hierarchy of one-layer (shallow-water) calculations and fully 3D models. The wave-mean-flow interaction produces an equatorial jet whose latitudinal width is comparable to that of the Rossby waves, namely the equatorial Rossby deformation radius modified by radiative and frictional effects. For conditions typical of synchronously rotating hot Jupiters, this length is comparable to a planetary radius, explaining the broad scale of the equatorial jet obtained in most hot-Jupiter models. Our theory illuminates the dependence of the equatorial jet

Turbulence in Accretion Discs. The Global Baroclinic Instability

Science.gov (United States)

Klahr, Hubert; Bodenheimer, Peter

The transport of angular momentum away from the central object is a sufficient condition for a protoplanetary disk to accrete matter onto the star and spin it down. Magnetic fields cannot be of importance for this process in a large part of the cold and dusty disk where the planets supposedly form. Our new hypothesis on the angular momentum transport based on radiation hydro simulations is as follows: We present the global baroclinic instability as a source for vigorous turbulence leading to angular momentum transport in Keplerian accretion disks. We show by analytical considerations and three-dimensional radiation hydro simulations that, in particular, protoplanetary disks have a negative radial entropy gradient, which makes them baroclinic. Two-dimensional numerical simulations show that this baroclinic flow is unstable and produces turbulence. These findings are currently tested for numerical effects by performing barotropic simulations which show that imposed turbulence rapidly decays. The turbulence in baroclinic disks draws energy from the background shear, transports angular momentum outward and creates a radially inward bound accretion of matter, thus forming a self consistent process. Gravitational energy is transformed into turbulent kinetic energy, which is then dissipated, as in the classical accretion paradigm. We measure accretion rates in 2D and 3D simulations of dot M= - 10-9 to -10-7 Msolar yr-1 and viscosity parameters of α = 10-4 - 10-2, which fit perfectly together and agree reasonably with observations. The turbulence creates pressure waves, Rossby waves, and vortices in the (r-φ) plane of the disk. We demonstrate in a global simulation that these vortices tend to form out of little background noise and to be long-lasting features, which have already been suggested to lead to the formation of planets.

Continuous dynamic assimilation of the inner region data in hydrodynamics modelling: optimization approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F. I. Pisnitchenko

2008-11-01

Full Text Available In meteorological and oceanological studies the classical approach for finding the numerical solution of the regional model consists in formulating and solving a Cauchy-Dirichlet problem. The boundary conditions are obtained by linear interpolation of coarse-grid data provided by a global model. Errors in boundary conditions due to interpolation may cause large deviations from the correct regional solution. The methods developed to reduce these errors deal with continuous dynamic assimilation of known global data available inside the regional domain. One of the approaches of this assimilation procedure performs a nudging of large-scale components of regional model solution to large-scale global data components by introducing relaxation forcing terms into the regional model equations. As a result, the obtained solution is not a valid numerical solution to the original regional model. Another approach is the use a four-dimensional variational data assimilation procedure which is free from the above-mentioned shortcoming. In this work we formulate the joint problem of finding the regional model solution and data assimilation as a PDE-constrained optimization problem. Three simple model examples (ODE Burgers equation, Rossby-Oboukhov equation, Korteweg-de Vries equation are considered in this paper. Numerical experiments indicate that the optimization approach can significantly improve the precision of the regional solution.

Cloud Geospatial Analysis Tools for Global-Scale Comparisons of Population Models for Decision Making

Science.gov (United States)

Hancher, M.; Lieber, A.; Scott, L.

2017-12-01

The volume of satellite and other Earth data is growing rapidly. Combined with information about where people are, these data can inform decisions in a range of areas including food and water security, disease and disaster risk management, biodiversity, and climate adaptation. Google's platform for planetary-scale geospatial data analysis, Earth Engine, grants access to petabytes of continually updating Earth data, programming interfaces for analyzing the data without the need to download and manage it, and mechanisms for sharing the analyses and publishing results for data-driven decision making. In addition to data about the planet, data about the human planet - population, settlement and urban models - are now available for global scale analysis. The Earth Engine APIs enable these data to be joined, combined or visualized with economic or environmental indicators such as nighttime lights trends, global surface water, or climate projections, in the browser without the need to download anything. We will present our newly developed application intended to serve as a resource for government agencies, disaster response and public health programs, or other consumers of these data to quickly visualize the different population models, and compare them to ground truth tabular data to determine which model suits their immediate needs. Users can further tap into the power of Earth Engine and other Google technologies to perform a range of analysis from simple statistics in custom regions to more complex machine learning models. We will highlight case studies in which organizations around the world have used Earth Engine to combine population data with multiple other sources of data, such as water resources and roads data, over deep stacks of temporal imagery to model disease risk and accessibility to inform decisions.

Regional and urban down scaling of global climate scenarios for health impact assessments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

San Jose, R.; Perez, J. L.; Perez, L.; Gonzalez, R. M.; Pecci, J.; Garzon, A.; Palacios, M.

2015-07-01

In this contribution we have used global climate RCP IPCC scenarios to produce climate and air pollution maps at regional (25 km resolution) and urban scale with 200 m spatial resolution over Europe and five European cities in order to investigate the impact on meteorological variables and pollutant concentrations . We have used the very well known mesoscale meteorological model WRF-Chem (NOAA, US). We have used 2011 as control past year and two RCP scenarios from CCSM global climate model with 4.5 W/m2 and 8.5 W/m2 for 2030, 2050 and 2100 years. After running WRF-Chem model, using the boundary conditions provided by RCP scenarios with the emissions of 2011, we have performed a detailed down scaling process using CALMET diagnostic model to obtain a full 200 m spatial resolution map of five European cities (London, Antwerp, Madrid, Milan, and Helsinki). We will show the results and the health impacts for future RCP IPCC climate scenarios in comparison with the 2011 control year information for climate and health indicators. Finally, we have also investigated the impact of the aerosol effects in the short wave radiation mean value. Two simulations with the WRF-Chem model have been performed over Europe in 2010. A baseline simulation without any feedback effects and a second simulation including the direct effects affecting the solar radiation reaching the surface as well as the indirect aerosol effect with potential impacts on increasing or decreasing the precipitation rates. Aerosol effects produce an increase of incoming radiation over Atlantic Ocean (up to 70%) because the prescribed aerosol concentrations in the WRF-Chem without feedbacks is substantially higher than the aerosol concentrations produced when we activate the feedback effects. The decrease in solar radiation in the Sahara area (10%) is found to be produced because the prescribed aerosol concentration in the no feedback simulation is lower than when we activate the feedback effects. (Author)

Global relationships in river hydromorphology

Science.gov (United States)

Pavelsky, T.; Lion, C.; Allen, G. H.; Durand, M. T.; Schumann, G.; Beighley, E.; Yang, X.

2017-12-01

Since the widespread adoption of digital elevation models (DEMs) in the 1980s, most global and continental-scale analysis of river flow characteristics has been focused on measurements derived from DEMs such as drainage area, elevation, and slope. These variables (especially drainage area) have been related to other quantities of interest such as river width, depth, and velocity via empirical relationships that often take the form of power laws. More recently, a number of groups have developed more direct measurements of river location and some aspects of planform geometry from optical satellite imagery on regional, continental, and global scales. However, these satellite-derived datasets often lack many of the qualities that make DEM=derived datasets attractive, including robust network topology. Here, we present analysis of a dataset that combines the Global River Widths from Landsat (GRWL) database of river location, width, and braiding index with a river database extracted from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission DEM and the HydroSHEDS dataset. Using these combined tools, we present a dataset that includes measurements of river width, slope, braiding index, upstream drainage area, and other variables. The dataset is available everywhere that both datasets are available, which includes all continental areas south of 60N with rivers sufficiently large to be observed with Landsat imagery. We use the dataset to examine patterns and frequencies of river form across continental and global scales as well as global relationships among variables including width, slope, and drainage area. The results demonstrate the complex relationships among different dimensions of river hydromorphology at the global scale.

Theory and evidence of global Rossby waves in upper main-sequence stars

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Saio, Hideyuki; Kurtz, Donald W.; Murphy, Simon J.

2018-01-01

in the observational frame by considering the visibility of these modes. We find that the frequencies of r modes of azimuthal order m appear as groups at slightly lower frequency than m times the rotation frequency. Comparing the visibility curves for r modes with Fourier amplitude spectra of Kepler light curves...

A Global-Scale Estimate of Ecosystem Services from Urban Agriculture: Understanding Incentives for Natural Capital in Cities

Science.gov (United States)

Clinton, N.; Stuhlmacher, M.; Miles, A.; Uludere, N.; Wagner, M.; Georgescu, M.; Herwig, C.; Gong, P.

2017-12-01

Despite substantial interest in urban agriculture, little is known about the aggregate benefits conferred by natural capital for growing food in cities. Here we perform a scenario-based analysis to quantify ecosystem services from adoption of urban agriculture at varying intensity. To drive the scenarios, we created global-scale estimates of vacant land, rooftop and building surface area, at one kilometer resolution, from remotely sensed and modeled geospatial data. We used national scale agricultural reports, climate and other geospatial data at global scale to estimate agricultural production and economic returns, storm-water avoidance, energy savings from avoided heating and cooling costs, and ecosystem services provided by nitrogen sequestration, pollination and biocontrol of pests. The results indicate that vacant lands, followed by rooftops, represent the largest opportunities for natural capital put to agricultural use in urban areas. Ecosystem services from putting such spaces to productive use are dominated by agricultural returns, but energy savings conferred by insulative characteristics of growth substrate also provide economic incentives. Storm water avoidance was estimated to be substantial, but no economic value was estimated. Relatively low economic returns were estimated from the other ecosystem services examined. In aggregate, approximately $10-100 billion in economic incentives, before costs, were estimated. The results showed that relatively developed, high-income countries stand the most to gain from urban agricultural adoption due to the unique combination of climate, crop mixture and crop prices. While the results indicate that urban agriculture is not a panacea for urban food security issues, there is potential to simultaneously ameliorate multiple issues around food, energy and water in urbanized areas.

Evaluating the impact of climate change on landslide occurrence, hazard, and risk: from global to regional scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Gariano, Stefano Luigi; Guzzetti, Fausto

2017-04-01

According to the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, "warming of the climate system is unequivocal". The influence of climate changes on slope stability and landslides is also undisputable. Nevertheless, the quantitative evaluation of the impact of global warming, and the related changes in climate, on landslides remains a complex question to be solved. The evidence that climate and landslides act at only partially overlapping spatial and temporal scales complicates the evaluation. Different research fields, including e.g., climatology, physics, hydrology, geology, hydrogeology, geotechnics, soil science, environmental science, and social science, must be considered. Climatic, environmental, demographic, and economic changes are strictly correlated, with complex feedbacks, to landslide occurrence and variation. Thus, a holistic, multidisciplinary approach is necessary. We reviewed the literature on landslide-climate studies, and found a bias in their geographical distribution, with several studies centered in Europe and North America, and large parts of the world not investigated. We examined advantages and drawbacks of the approaches adopted to evaluate the effects of climate variations on landslides, including prospective modelling and retrospective methods that use landslide and climate records, and paleo-environmental information. We found that the results of landslide-climate studies depend more on the emission scenarios, the global circulation models, the regional climate models, and the methods to downscale the climate variables, than on the description of the variables controlling slope processes. Using ensembles of projections based on a range of emissions scenarios would reduce (or at least quantify) the uncertainties in the obtained results. We performed a preliminary global assessment of the future landslide impact, presenting a global distribution of the projected impact of climate change on landslide activity and abundance

The Nature of Global Large-scale Sea Level Variability in Relation to Atmospheric Forcing: A Modeling Study

Science.gov (United States)

Fukumori, I.; Raghunath, R.; Fu, L. L.

1996-01-01

The relation between large-scale sea level variability and ocean circulation is studied using a numerical model. A global primitive equaiton model of the ocean is forced by daily winds and climatological heat fluxes corresponding to the period from January 1992 to February 1996. The physical nature of the temporal variability from periods of days to a year, are examined based on spectral analyses of model results and comparisons with satellite altimetry and tide gauge measurements.

Optimization Model for Mitigating Global Warming at the Farm Scale: An Application to Japanese Rice Farms

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kiyotaka Masuda

2016-06-01

Full Text Available In Japan, greenhouse gas emissions from rice production, especially CH4 emissions in rice paddy fields, are the primary contributors to global warming from agriculture. When prolonged midseason drainage for mitigating CH4 emissions from rice paddy fields is practiced with environmentally friendly rice production based on reduced use of synthetic pesticides and chemical fertilizers, Japanese rice farmers can receive an agri-environmental direct payment. This paper examines the economic and environmental effects of the agri-environmental direct payment on the adoption of a measure to mitigate global warming in Japanese rice farms using a combined application of linear programming and life cycle assessment at the farm scale. Eco-efficiency, which is defined as net farm income divided by global warming potential, is used as an integrated indicator for assessing the economic and environmental feasibilities. The results show that under the current direct payment level, the prolonged midseason drainage technique does not improve the eco-efficiency of Japanese rice farms because the practice of this technique in environmentally friendly rice production causes large economic disadvantages in exchange for small environmental advantages. The direct payment rates for agri-environmental measures should be determined based on the condition that environmentally friendly agricultural practices improve eco-efficiency compared with conventional agriculture.

The amplitude of the deep solar convection and the origin of the solar supergranulation

Science.gov (United States)

Rast, Mark

2017-11-01

Recent observations and models have raised questions about our understanding of the dynamics of the deep solar convection. In particular, the amplitude of low wavenumber convective motions appears to be too high in both local area radiative magnetohydrodynamic and global spherical shell magnetohydrodynamic simulations. In global simulations this results in weaker than needed rotational constraints and consequent non solar-like differential rotation profiles. In deep local area simulations it yields strong horizontal flows in the photosphere on scales much larger than the observed supergranulation. We have undertaken numerical studies that suggest that solution to this problem is closely related to the long standing question of the origin of the solar supergranulation. Two possibilities have emerged. One suggests that small scale photospherically driven motions dominate convecive transport even at depth, descending through a very nearly adiabatic interior (more more nearly adiabatic than current convection models achieve). Convection of this form can meet Rossby number constraints set by global scale motions and implies that the solar supergranulation is the largest buoyantly driven scale of motion in the Sun. The other possibility is that large scale convection driven deeep in the Sun dynamically couples to the near surface shear layer, perhaps as its origin. In this case supergranulation would be the largest non-coupled convective mode, or only weakly coupled and thus potentially explaining the observed excess power in the prograde direction. Recent helioseismic results lend some support to this. We examind both of these possibilities using carefully designed numerical experiments, and weigh thier plausibilities in light of recent observations.

How Can the Evidence from Global Large-scale Clinical Trials for Cardiovascular Diseases be Improved?

Science.gov (United States)

Sawata, Hiroshi; Tsutani, Kiichiro

2011-06-29

Clinical investigations are important for obtaining evidence to improve medical treatment. Large-scale clinical trials with thousands of participants are particularly important for this purpose in cardiovascular diseases. Conducting large-scale clinical trials entails high research costs. This study sought to investigate global trends in large-scale clinical trials in cardiovascular diseases. We searched for trials using clinicaltrials.gov (URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/) using the key words 'cardio' and 'event' in all fields on 10 April, 2010. We then selected trials with 300 or more participants examining cardiovascular diseases. The search revealed 344 trials that met our criteria. Of 344 trials, 71% were randomized controlled trials, 15% involved more than 10,000 participants, and 59% were funded by industry. In RCTs whose results were disclosed, 55% of industry-funded trials and 25% of non-industry funded trials reported statistically significant superiority over control (p = 0.012, 2-sided Fisher's exact test). Our findings highlighted concerns regarding potential bias related to funding sources, and that researchers should be aware of the importance of trial information disclosures and conflicts of interest. We should keep considering management and training regarding information disclosures and conflicts of interest for researchers. This could lead to better clinical evidence and further improvements in the development of medical treatment worldwide.

Display of the β-effect in the Black Sea Two-Layer Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A.A. Pavlushin

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The research is a continuation of a series of numerical experiments on modeling formation of wind currents and eddies in the Black Sea within the framework of a two-layer eddy-resolving model. The main attention is focused on studying the β-effect role. The stationary cyclonic wind is used as an external forcing and the bottom topography is not considered. It is shown that at the β-effect being taken into account, the Rossby waves propagating from east to west are observed both during the currents’ formation and at the statistical equilibrium mode when the mesoscale eddies are formed. In the integral flows’ field the waves are visually manifested in a form of the alternate large-scale cyclonic gyres and zones in which the meso-scale anti-cyclones are formed. This spatial pattern constantly propagates to the west that differs from the results of calculations using the constant Coriolis parameter when the spatially alternate cyclonic and anti-cyclonic vortices are formed, but hold a quasi-stationary position. The waves with the parameters of the Rossby wave first barotropic mode for the closed basin are most clearly pronounced. Interaction of the Rossby waves with large-scale circulation results in intensification of the of the currents’ hydrodynamic instability and in formation of the mesoscale eddies. Significant decrease of kinetic and available potential energy as compared to the values obtained at the constant Coriolis parameter is also a consequence of the eddy formation intensification.

Structures and mechanisms of the first-branch northward-propagating intraseasonal oscillation over the tropical Indian Ocean

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Li, K.; Yu, W.; Li, T.; Murty, V.S.N.; Khokiattiwong, S.; Adi, T.R.; Budi, S.

the instability of equatorial Kelvin and Rossby waves. This requires further theoretical analysis and/or modeling validation. Further studies are also nee- ded to understand the role of the other environmental conditions and multi-scale interactions in causing...

Global energy confinement in TORE SUPRA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoang, G.T.; Bizarro, J.P.; Genile, B. de; Hutter, Th.; Laurent, L.; Litaudon, X.; Moreau, D.; Peysson, Y.; Tonon, G.; Houtte, D. van

1992-01-01

The global energy confinement behaviour of mixed Ohmic/Lower Hybrid driven Tore Supra plasmas has been analysed at various densities. In contradiction with L-mode ITER scaling law, this analysis indicates that the global energy confinement time depends strongly on the plasma density and the isotopic dependence seems not to be observed. The thermal electron energy content of steady-state discharges is in good agreement with the offset linear Rebut-Lallia scaling law. During current ramp experiments, the global energy confinement time was found to depend on the internal self-inductance (li). Improved confinement has been obtained for a steady-state 0.8 MA plasma where the plasma current profile is peaked by LH waves (li ∼1.8). In this case, the global confinement time is found to be about 40% higher than the value predicted by the Rebut-Lallia scaling law. (author) 3 refs., 6 figs

Global water cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Robertson, Franklin; Goodman, Steven J.; Christy, John R.; Fitzjarrald, Daniel E.; Chou, Shi-Hung; Crosson, William; Wang, Shouping; Ramirez, Jorge

1993-01-01

This research is the MSFC component of a joint MSFC/Pennsylvania State University Eos Interdisciplinary Investigation on the global water cycle extension across the earth sciences. The primary long-term objective of this investigation is to determine the scope and interactions of the global water cycle with all components of the Earth system and to understand how it stimulates and regulates change on both global and regional scales. Significant accomplishments in the past year are presented and include the following: (1) water vapor variability; (2) multi-phase water analysis; (3) global modeling; and (4) optimal precipitation and stream flow analysis and hydrologic processes.

Geoscience Meets Social Science: A Flexible Data Driven Approach for Developing High Resolution Population Datasets at Global Scale

Science.gov (United States)

Rose, A.; McKee, J.; Weber, E.; Bhaduri, B. L.

2017-12-01

Leveraging decades of expertise in population modeling, and in response to growing demand for higher resolution population data, Oak Ridge National Laboratory is now generating LandScan HD at global scale. LandScan HD is conceived as a 90m resolution population distribution where modeling is tailored to the unique geography and data conditions of individual countries or regions by combining social, cultural, physiographic, and other information with novel geocomputation methods. Similarities among these areas are exploited in order to leverage existing training data and machine learning algorithms to rapidly scale development. Drawing on ORNL's unique set of capabilities, LandScan HD adapts highly mature population modeling methods developed for LandScan Global and LandScan USA, settlement mapping research and production in high-performance computing (HPC) environments, land use and neighborhood mapping through image segmentation, and facility-specific population density models. Adopting a flexible methodology to accommodate different geographic areas, LandScan HD accounts for the availability, completeness, and level of detail of relevant ancillary data. Beyond core population and mapped settlement inputs, these factors determine the model complexity for an area, requiring that for any given area, a data-driven model could support either a simple top-down approach, a more detailed bottom-up approach, or a hybrid approach.

Storm Time Global Observations of Large-Scale TIDs From Ground-Based and In Situ Satellite Measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Habarulema, John Bosco; Yizengaw, Endawoke; Katamzi-Joseph, Zama T.; Moldwin, Mark B.; Buchert, Stephan

2018-01-01

This paper discusses the ionosphere's response to the largest storm of solar cycle 24 during 16-18 March 2015. We have used the Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) total electron content data to study large-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) over the American, African, and Asian regions. Equatorward large-scale TIDs propagated and crossed the equator to the other side of the hemisphere especially over the American and Asian sectors. Poleward TIDs with velocities in the range ≈400-700 m/s have been observed during local daytime over the American and African sectors with origin from around the geomagnetic equator. Our investigation over the American sector shows that poleward TIDs may have been launched by increased Lorentz coupling as a result of penetrating electric field during the southward turning of the interplanetary magnetic field, Bz. We have observed increase in SWARM satellite electron density (Ne) at the same time when equatorward large-scale TIDs are visible over the European-African sector. The altitude Ne profiles from ionosonde observations show a possible link that storm-induced TIDs may have influenced the plasma distribution in the topside ionosphere at SWARM satellite altitude.

Validation of a global scale to assess the quality of interprofessional teamwork in mental health settings.

Science.gov (United States)

Tomizawa, Ryoko; Yamano, Mayumi; Osako, Mitue; Hirabayashi, Naotugu; Oshima, Nobuo; Sigeta, Masahiro; Reeves, Scott

2017-12-01

Few scales currently exist to assess the quality of interprofessional teamwork through team members' perceptions of working together in mental health settings. The purpose of this study was to revise and validate an interprofessional scale to assess the quality of teamwork in inpatient psychiatric units and to use it multi-nationally. A literature review was undertaken to identify evaluative teamwork tools and develop an additional 12 items to ensure a broad global focus. Focus group discussions considered adaptation to different care systems using subjective judgements from 11 participants in a pre-test of items. Data quality, construct validity, reproducibility, and internal consistency were investigated in the survey using an international comparative design. Exploratory factor analysis yielded five factors with 21 items: 'patient/community centred care', 'collaborative communication', 'interprofessional conflict', 'role clarification', and 'environment'. High overall internal consistency, reproducibility, adequate face validity, and reasonable construct validity were shown in the USA and Japan. The revised Collaborative Practice Assessment Tool (CPAT) is a valid measure to assess the quality of interprofessional teamwork in psychiatry and identifies the best strategies to improve team performance. Furthermore, the revised scale will generate more rigorous evidence for collaborative practice in psychiatry internationally.

Development of the Global Disability Scale (Glo.Di.S: preliminary results

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fountoulakis Konstantinos N

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The assessment of functioning and disability is an important part of the clinical evaluation, since it measures disease burden and reflects the effectiveness of therapeutic planning and interventions. The aim of the current study was to develop such a self-report instrument on the basis of a review of the literature, and compatible with the WHO approach. Material and methods The review of the literature led to the development of the Global Disability Scale (Glo.Di.S with 25 items assessing different aspects of disability. The study sample included 728 persons from vulnerable populations (homeless, jobless, very low income, single parent families etc.; (29.12% males and 70.88% females; aged 55.96 ± 15.22 years. The protocol included also the STAI and the CES-D. The statistical analysis included factor analysis item analysis and ANCOVA. Results The factor analysis revealed the presence of 4 factors explaining 71% of total variance (Everyday functioning, Social and interpersonal functioning, Severity and Mental disability. Chronbach’s alpha for the whole scale was 0.95 and for subscales were 0.74–0.94. Discussion The results of the current study suggest that the Glo.Di.S. has the potential to serve as a reliable and valid tool for assessing functioning and disability. Further research is needed to prove that it could be useful across countries, populations and diseases, and whether it provides data that are culturally meaningful and comparable. It can be used in surveys and in clinical research settings and it can generate information of use in evaluating health needs and the effectiveness of interventions to reduce disability and improve health.

The Global Drought Information System - A Decision Support Tool with Global Applications

Science.gov (United States)

Arndt, D. S.; Brewer, M.; Heim, R. R., Jr.

2014-12-01

Drought is a natural hazard which can cause famine in developing countries and severe economic hardship in developed countries. Given current concerns with the increasing frequency and magnitude of droughts in many regions of the world, especially in the light of expected climate change, drought monitoring and dissemination of early warning information in a timely fashion on a global scale is a critical concern as an important adaptation and mitigation strategy. While a number of nations, and a few continental-scale activities have developed drought information system activities, a global drought early warning system (GDEWS) remains elusive, despite the benefits highlighted by ministers to the Global Earth Observation System of System in 2008. In an effort to begin a process of drought monitoring with international collaboration, the National Integrated Drought Information System's (NIDIS) U.S. Drought Portal, a web-based information system created to address drought services and early warning in the United States, including drought monitoring, forecasting, impacts, mitigation, research, and education, volunteered to develop a prototype Global Drought Monitoring Portal (GDMP). Through integration of data and information at the global level, and with four continental-level partners, the GDMP has proven successful as a tool to monitor drought around the globe. At a past meeting between NIDIS, the World Meteorological Organization, and the Global Earth Observation System of Systems, it was recommended that the GDMP form the basis for a Global Drought Information System (GDIS). Currently, GDIS activities are focused around providing operational global drought monitoring products and assessments, incorporating additional drought monitoring information, especially from those areas without regional or continental-scale input, and incorporating drought-specific climate forecast information from the World Climate Research Programme. Additional GDIS pilot activities are

Natural and anthropogenic mercury sources and their impact on the air-surface exchange of mercury on regional and global scales

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ebinghaus, R.; Tripathi, R.M.; Wallschlaeger, D.; Lindberg, S.E.

1998-12-31

Mercury is outstanding among the global environmental pollutants of continuing concern. Especially in the last decade of the 20th century, environmental scientists, legislators, politicians and the public have become aware of mercury pollution in the global environment. It has often been suggested that anthropogenic emissions are leading to a general increase in mercury on local, regional, and global scales (Lindqvist et al. 1991; Expert Panel 1994). Mercury is emitted into the atmosphere from a number of natural as well as anthropogenic sources. In contrast with most of the other heavy metals, mercury and many of its compounds behave exceptionally in the environment due to their volatility and capability for methylation. Long-range atmospheric transport of mercury, its transformation to more toxic methylmercury compounds, and their bioaccumulation in the aquatic foodchain have motivated intensive research on mercury as a pollutant of global concern. Mercury takes part in a number of complex environmental cycles, and special interest is focused on the aquatic-biological and the atmospheric cycles. (orig./SR)

Natural and anthropogenic mercury sources and their impact on the air-surface exchange of mercury on regional and global scales

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ebinghaus, R; Tripathi, R M; Wallschlaeger, D; Lindberg, S E

1999-12-31

Mercury is outstanding among the global environmental pollutants of continuing concern. Especially in the last decade of the 20th century, environmental scientists, legislators, politicians and the public have become aware of mercury pollution in the global environment. It has often been suggested that anthropogenic emissions are leading to a general increase in mercury on local, regional, and global scales (Lindqvist et al. 1991; Expert Panel 1994). Mercury is emitted into the atmosphere from a number of natural as well as anthropogenic sources. In contrast with most of the other heavy metals, mercury and many of its compounds behave exceptionally in the environment due to their volatility and capability for methylation. Long-range atmospheric transport of mercury, its transformation to more toxic methylmercury compounds, and their bioaccumulation in the aquatic foodchain have motivated intensive research on mercury as a pollutant of global concern. Mercury takes part in a number of complex environmental cycles, and special interest is focused on the aquatic-biological and the atmospheric cycles. (orig./SR)

Simulated global-scale response of the climate system to Dansgaard/Oeschger and Heinrich events

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Claussen, M. [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P-O Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam (Germany); Institute of Physics, Potsdam University, P-O Box 601553, 14415 Potsdam (Germany); Ganopolski, A.; Brovkin, V.; Gerstengarbe, F.W.; Werner, P. [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P-O Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam (Germany)

2003-11-01

By using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity we have studied the global-scale response of the glacial climate system during marine isotope stage (MIS) 3 to perturbations at high northern latitudes and the tropics. These perturbations include changes in inland-ice volume over North America, in freshwater flux into the northern North Atlantic and in surface temperatures of the tropical Pacific. The global pattern of temperature series resulting from an experiment in which perturbations of inland ice and freshwater budget are imposed at high northern latitudes only, agree with paleoclimatic reconstructions. In particular, a positive correlation of temperature variations near Greenland and variations in all regions of the Northern Hemisphere and some parts of the southern tropics is found. Over the southern oceans a weak negative correlation appears which is strongest at a time lag of approximately 500 years. Further experimentation with prescribed temperature anomalies applied to the tropical Pacific suggests that perturbation of tropical sea-surface temperatures and hence, the tropical water cycle, is unlikely to have triggered Dansgaard/Oeschger (D/O) events. However, together with random freshwater anomalies prescribed at high northern latitudes, tropical perturbations would be able to synchronize the occurrence of D/O events via the mechanism of stochastic resonance. (orig.)

PROMIS GH (Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System Global Health) Scale in Stroke: A Validation Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Katzan, Irene L; Lapin, Brittany

2018-01-01

The International Consortium for Health Outcomes Measurement recently included the 10-item PROMIS GH (Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System Global Health) scale as part of their recommended Standard Set of Stroke Outcome Measures. Before collection of PROMIS GH is broadly implemented, it is necessary to assess its performance in the stroke population. The objective of this study was to evaluate the psychometric properties of PROMIS GH in patients with ischemic stroke and intracerebral hemorrhage. PROMIS GH and 6 PROMIS domain scales measuring same/similar constructs were electronically collected on 1102 patients with ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes at various stages of recovery from their stroke who were seen in a cerebrovascular clinic from October 12, 2015, through June 2, 2017. Confirmatory factor analysis was performed to evaluate the adequacy of 2-factor structure of component scores. Test-retest reliability and convergent validity of PROMIS GH items and component scores were assessed. Discriminant validity and responsiveness were compared between PROMIS GH and PROMIS domain scales measuring the same or related constructs. Analyses were repeated stratified by stroke subtype and modified Rankin Scale score validity was good with significant correlations between all PROMIS GH items and PROMIS domain scales ( P 0.5) was demonstrated for 8 of the 10 PROMIS GH items. Reliability and validity remained consistent across stroke subtype and disability level (modified Rankin Scale, <2 versus ≥2). PROMIS GH exhibits acceptable performance in patients with stroke. Our findings support International Consortium for Health Outcomes Measurement recommendation to use PROMIS GH as part of the standard set of outcome measures in stroke. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Plant diversity increases with the strength of negative density dependence at the global scale

Science.gov (United States)

LaManna, Joseph A.; Mangan, Scott A.; Alonso, Alfonso; Bourg, Norman; Brockelman, Warren Y.; Bunyavejchewin, Sarayudh; Chang, Li-Wan; Chiang, Jyh-Min; Chuyong, George B.; Clay, Keith; Condit, Richard; Cordell, Susan; Davies, Stuart J.; Furniss, Tucker J.; Giardina, Christian P.; Gunatilleke, I.A.U. Nimal; Gunatilleke, C.V. Savitri; He, Fangliang; Howe, Robert W.; Hubbell, Stephen P.; Hsieh, Chang-Fu; Inman-Narahari, Faith M.; Janik, David; Johnson, Daniel J.; Kenfack, David; Korte, Lisa; Kral, Kamil; Larson, Andrew J.; Lutz, James A.; McMahon, Sean M.; McShea, William J.; Memiaghe, Herve R.; Nathalang, Anuttara; Novotny, Vojtech; Ong, Perry S.; Orwig, David A.; Ostertag, Rebecca; Parker, Geoffrey G.; Phillips, Richard P.; Sack, Lawren; Sun, I-Fang; Tello, J. Sebastian; Thomas, Duncan W.; Turner, Benjamin L.; Vela Diaz, Dilys M.; Vrska, Tomas; Weiblen, George D.; Wolf, Amy; Yap, Sandra; Myers, Jonathan A.

2017-01-01

Theory predicts that higher biodiversity in the tropics is maintained by specialized interactions among plants and their natural enemies that result in conspecific negative density dependence (CNDD). By using more than 3000 species and nearly 2.4 million trees across 24 forest plots worldwide, we show that global patterns in tree species diversity reflect not only stronger CNDD at tropical versus temperate latitudes but also a latitudinal shift in the relationship between CNDD and species abundance. CNDD was stronger for rare species at tropical versus temperate latitudes, potentially causing the persistence of greater numbers of rare species in the tropics. Our study reveals fundamental differences in the nature of local-scale biotic interactions that contribute to the maintenance of species diversity across temperate and tropical communities.

Modeling Aircraft Emissions for Regional-scale Air Quality: Adapting a New Global Aircraft Emissions Database for the U.S

Science.gov (United States)

Arunachalam, S.; Baek, B. H.; Vennam, P. L.; Woody, M. C.; Omary, M.; Binkowski, F.; Fleming, G.

2012-12-01

Commercial aircraft emit substantial amounts of pollutants during their complete activity cycle that ranges from landing-and-takeoff (LTO) at airports to cruising in upper elevations of the atmosphere, and affect both air quality and climate. Since these emissions are not uniformly emitted over the earth, and have substantial temporal and spatial variability, it is vital to accurately evaluate and quantify the relative impacts of aviation emissions on ambient air quality. Regional-scale air quality modeling applications do not routinely include these aircraft emissions from all cycles. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has developed the Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT), a software system that dynamically models aircraft performance in space and time to calculate fuel burn and emissions from gate-to-gate for all commercial aviation activity from all airports globally. To process in-flight aircraft emissions and to provide a realistic representation of these for treatment in grid-based air quality models, we have developed an interface processor called AEDTproc that accurately distributes full-flight chorded emissions in time and space to create gridded, hourly model-ready emissions input data. Unlike the traditional emissions modeling approach of treating aviation emissions as ground-level sources or processing emissions only from the LTO cycles in regional-scale air quality studies, AEDTproc distributes chorded inventories of aircraft emissions during LTO cycles and cruise activities into a time-variant 3-D gridded structure. We will present results of processed 2006 global emissions from AEDT over a continental U.S. modeling domain to support a national-scale air quality assessment of the incremental impacts of aircraft emissions on surface air quality. This includes about 13.6 million flights within the U.S. out of 31.2 million flights globally. We will focus on assessing spatio-temporal variability of these commercial aircraft emissions, and

Evaluation of rainfall simulations over West Africa in dynamically downscaled CMIP5 global circulation models

Science.gov (United States)

Akinsanola, A. A.; Ajayi, V. O.; Adejare, A. T.; Adeyeri, O. E.; Gbode, I. E.; Ogunjobi, K. O.; Nikulin, G.; Abolude, A. T.

2018-04-01

This study presents evaluation of the ability of Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model (RCA4) driven by nine global circulation models (GCMs), to skilfully reproduce the key features of rainfall climatology over West Africa for the period of 1980-2005. The seasonal climatology and annual cycle of the RCA4 simulations were assessed over three homogenous subregions of West Africa (Guinea coast, Savannah, and Sahel) and evaluated using observed precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Furthermore, the model output was evaluated using a wide range of statistical measures. The interseasonal and interannual variability of the RCA4 were further assessed over the subregions and the whole of the West Africa domain. Results indicate that the RCA4 captures the spatial and interseasonal rainfall pattern adequately but exhibits a weak performance over the Guinea coast. Findings from the interannual rainfall variability indicate that the model performance is better over the larger West Africa domain than the subregions. The largest difference across the RCA4 simulated annual rainfall was found in the Sahel. Result from the Mann-Kendall test showed no significant trend for the 1980-2005 period in annual rainfall either in GPCP observation data or in the model simulations over West Africa. In many aspects, the RCA4 simulation driven by the HadGEM2-ES perform best over the region. The use of the multimodel ensemble mean has resulted to the improved representation of rainfall characteristics over the study domain.

Global resource sharing

CERN Document Server

Frederiksen, Linda; Nance, Heidi

2011-01-01

Written from a global perspective, this book reviews sharing of library resources on a global scale. With expanded discovery tools and massive digitization projects, the rich and extensive holdings of the world's libraries are more visible now than at any time in the past. Advanced communication and transmission technologies, along with improved international standards, present a means for the sharing of library resources around the globe. Despite these significant improvements, a number of challenges remain. Global Resource Sharing provides librarians and library managers with a comprehensive

Large-scale global convection in the mantle beneath Australia from 55 Ma to now

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, M.

1999-01-01

Full text: The global-scale mantle convection cells in the asthenosphere are not geochemically homogeneous. The heterogeneity is most prominently reflected in the isotopic compositions (Pb-Sr-Nd) of the mid-ocean ridge basalts (MORB) that are direct partial melts from the underlying asthenosphere. Of particular relevance to Australia's geodynamic evolution from about 100 million years, are the distinctive geochemical signatures of the asthenosphere beneath the Pacific Ocean (Pacific MORB) and Indian Ocean (Indian MORB). Therefore, delineation of the boundary between the two distinct mantle reservoirs and any change in that boundary with time provide information about the patterns of global-scale asthenospheric mantle convection. This information has also allowed us to track large-scale mantle chemical reservoirs such as the distinctive Gondwana lithospheric mantle, and hence better understand the geodynamic evolution of the Australian continent from the time of Gondwana dispersal. Pb-Sr-Nd isotope data for Cenozoic basalts in eastern Australia (Zhang et al, 1999) indicate that Pacific-MORB type isotopic signatures characterise the lava-field basalts (55-14 Ma) in southeastern Australia, whereas Indian-MORB type isotopic signatures characterise younger basalts (6-0 Ma) from northeastern Australia. This discovery helps to constrain the changing locus of the major asthenospheric mantle convection cells represented by the Pacific and Indian MORB sources during and following the breakup of the eastern part of Gondwana, and locates, for the first time, the boundary of these convection cells beneath the Australian continent. This extends previous work in the SW Pacific back-arc basins (eg Hickey-Vargas et al., 1995) and the Southern Ocean (Lanyon et al., 1995) that indicates that the 1- and P-MORB mantle convection cells have been moving in opposite directions since the early Tertiary. These new data also indicate that the Indian-MORB source is a long-term asthenospheric

Solitary Rossby waves in the lower tropical troposphere | Lenouo ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Weakly nonlinear approximation is used to study the theoretical comportment of large-scale disturbances around the inter-tropical mid-tropospheric jet. We show here that the Korteweg de Vries (KdV) theory is appropriated to describe the structure of the streamlines around the African easterly jet (AEJ) region.

Towards large-scale mapping of urban three-dimensional structure using Landsat imagery and global elevation datasets

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, P.; Huang, C.

2017-12-01

The three-dimensional (3D) structure of buildings and infrastructures is fundamental to understanding and modelling of the impacts and challenges of urbanization in terms of energy use, carbon emissions, and earthquake vulnerabilities. However, spatially detailed maps of urban 3D structure have been scarce, particularly in fast-changing developing countries. We present here a novel methodology to map the volume of buildings and infrastructures at 30 meter resolution using a synergy of Landsat imagery and openly available global digital surface models (DSMs), including the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), ASTER Global Digital Elevation Map (GDEM), ALOS World 3D - 30m (AW3D30), and the recently released global DSM from the TanDEM-X mission. Our method builds on the concept of object-based height profile to extract height metrics from the DSMs and use a machine learning algorithm to predict height and volume from the height metrics. We have tested this algorithm in the entire England and assessed our result using Lidar measurements in 25 England cities. Our initial assessments achieved a RMSE of 1.4 m (R2 = 0.72) for building height and a RMSE of 1208.7 m3 (R2 = 0.69) for building volume, demonstrating the potential of large-scale applications and fully automated mapping of urban structure.

Improving Prediction of Large-scale Regime Transitions

Science.gov (United States)

Gyakum, J. R.; Roebber, P.; Bosart, L. F.; Honor, A.; Bunker, E.; Low, Y.; Hart, J.; Bliankinshtein, N.; Kolly, A.; Atallah, E.; Huang, Y.

2017-12-01

Cool season atmospheric predictability over the CONUS on subseasonal times scales (1-4 weeks) is critically dependent upon the structure, configuration, and evolution of the North Pacific jet stream (NPJ). The NPJ can be perturbed on its tropical side on synoptic time scales by recurving and transitioning tropical cyclones (TCs) and on subseasonal time scales by longitudinally varying convection associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Likewise, the NPJ can be perturbed on its poleward side on synoptic time scales by midlatitude and polar disturbances that originate over the Asian continent. These midlatitude and polar disturbances can often trigger downstream Rossby wave propagation across the North Pacific, North America, and the North Atlantic. The project team is investigating the following multiscale processes and features: the spatiotemporal distribution of cyclone clustering over the Northern Hemisphere; cyclone clustering as influenced by atmospheric blocking and the phases and amplitudes of the major teleconnection indices, ENSO and the MJO; composite and case study analyses of representative cyclone clustering events to establish the governing dynamics; regime change predictability horizons associated with cyclone clustering events; Arctic air mass generation and modification; life cycles of the MJO; and poleward heat and moisture transports of subtropical air masses. A critical component of the study is weather regime classification. These classifications are defined through: the spatiotemporal clustering of surface cyclogenesis; a general circulation metric combining data at 500-hPa and the dynamic tropopause; Self Organizing Maps (SOM), constructed from dynamic tropopause and 850 hPa equivalent potential temperature data. The resultant lattice of nodes is used to categorize synoptic classes and their predictability, as well as to determine the robustness of the CFSv2 model climate relative to observations. Transition pathways between these

Building Global Learning Communities

Science.gov (United States)

Cochrane, Thomas; Buchem, Ilona; Camacho, Mar; Cronin, Catherine; Gordon, Averill; Keegan, Helen

2013-01-01

Within the background where education is increasingly driven by the economies of scale and research funding, we propose an alternative online open and connected framework (OOC) for building global learning communities using mobile social media. We critique a three year action research case study involving building collaborative global learning…

How Can the Evidence from Global Large-scale Clinical Trials for Cardiovascular Diseases be Improved?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tsutani Kiichiro

2011-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Clinical investigations are important for obtaining evidence to improve medical treatment. Large-scale clinical trials with thousands of participants are particularly important for this purpose in cardiovascular diseases. Conducting large-scale clinical trials entails high research costs. This study sought to investigate global trends in large-scale clinical trials in cardiovascular diseases. Findings We searched for trials using clinicaltrials.gov (URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ using the key words 'cardio' and 'event' in all fields on 10 April, 2010. We then selected trials with 300 or more participants examining cardiovascular diseases. The search revealed 344 trials that met our criteria. Of 344 trials, 71% were randomized controlled trials, 15% involved more than 10,000 participants, and 59% were funded by industry. In RCTs whose results were disclosed, 55% of industry-funded trials and 25% of non-industry funded trials reported statistically significant superiority over control (p = 0.012, 2-sided Fisher's exact test. Conclusions Our findings highlighted concerns regarding potential bias related to funding sources, and that researchers should be aware of the importance of trial information disclosures and conflicts of interest. We should keep considering management and training regarding information disclosures and conflicts of interest for researchers. This could lead to better clinical evidence and further improvements in the development of medical treatment worldwide.

Global Mechanical Response and Its Relation to Deformation and Failure Modes at Various Length Scales Under Shock Impact in Alumina AD995 Armor Ceramic

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Dandekar, D. P; McCauley, J. W; Green, W. H; Bourne, N. K; Chen, M. W

2008-01-01

... maps relating the experimentally measured global mechanical response of a material through matured shock wave diagnostics to the nature of concurrent deformation and damage generated at varying length scales under shock wave loading.

Porto Alegre as a Counter-Hegemonic "Global City": Building Globalization from below in Governance and Education

Science.gov (United States)

Gandin, Luis Armando

2011-01-01

This paper analyzes the case of Porto Alegre, Brazil as a counter-hegemonic global city. Porto Alegre is a city with no particular relevance to neoliberal globalization that, nevertheless, was launched to a global scale by transformations in local governance. New mechanisms of deliberative democracy captured the attention of social actors…

Liver diseases: A major, neglected global public health problem requiring urgent actions and large-scale screening.

Science.gov (United States)

Marcellin, Patrick; Kutala, Blaise K

2018-02-01

CLDs represent an important, and certainly underestimated, global public health problem. CLDs are highly prevalent and silent, related to different, sometimes associated causes. The distribution of the causes of these diseases is slowly changing, and within the next decade, the proportion of virus-induced CLDs will certainly decrease significantly while the proportion of NASH will increase. There is an urgent need for effective global actions including education, prevention and early diagnosis to manage and treat CLDs, thus preventing cirrhosis-related morbidity and mortality. Our role is to increase the awareness of the public, healthcare professionals and public health authorities to encourage active policies for early management that will decrease the short- and long-term public health burden of these diseases. Because necroinflammation is the key mechanism in the progression of CLDs, it should be detected early. Thus, large-scale screening for CLDs is needed. ALT levels are an easy and inexpensive marker of liver necroinflammation and could be the first-line tool in this process. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Study of short-period RS Canum Venaticorum and W Ursae Majoris binary systems: The global nature of Hα

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barden, S.C.

1985-01-01

I present the rotation versus emission characteristics of the Hα line for several short-period (P -5 ) and the Rossby number (the ratio between the rotational period and the convective time scale) is seen for those components showing emission. Such a correlation suggests that the Hα line is a good diagnostic for the study of the magnetic-related activity in late-type stellar systems. Plotting the L/sub Halpha//L/sub bol/ against a measure of the tidal amplitude of Scharlemann shows that the activity of the W UMa secondary components may be shut off by the tidal forces of the primaries. The shut-off appears in those components having a tidal amplitude > or approx. =0.02. It is, however, unclear whether the tidal damping of the differential rotation is the sole mechanism responsible for the shut-off of the Hα emission, as the activity damping may also be attributable to the contact nature of the W UMa systems

Decadal-scale teleconnection between South Atlantic SST and southeast Australia surface air temperature in austral summer

Science.gov (United States)

Xue, Jiaqing; Li, Jianping; Sun, Cheng; Zhao, Sen; Mao, Jiangyu; Dong, Di; Li, Yanjie; Feng, Juan

2018-04-01

Austral summer (December-February) surface air temperature over southeast Australia (SEA) is found to be remotely influenced by sea surface temperature (SST) in the South Atlantic at decadal time scales. In austral summer, warm SST anomalies in the southwest South Atlantic induce concurrent above-normal surface air temperature over SEA. This decadal-scale teleconnection occurs through the eastward propagating South Atlantic-Australia (SAA) wave train triggered by SST anomalies in the southwest South Atlantic. The excitation of the SAA wave train is verified by forcing experiments based on both linear barotropic and baroclinic models, propagation pathway and spatial scale of the observed SAA wave train are further explained by the Rossby wave ray tracing analysis in non-uniform basic flow. The SAA wave train forced by southwest South Atlantic warming is characterized by an anomalous anticyclone off the eastern coast of the Australia. Temperature diagnostic analyses based on the thermodynamic equation suggest anomalous northerly flows on western flank of this anticyclone can induce low-level warm advection anomaly over SEA, which thus lead to the warming of surface air temperature there. Finally, SST-forced atmospheric general circulation model ensemble experiments also demonstrate that SST forcing in the South Atlantic is associated with the SAA teleconnection wave train in austral summer, this wave train then modulate surface air temperature over SEA on decadal timescales. Hence, observations combined with numerical simulations consistently demonstrate the decadal-scale teleconnection between South Atlantic SST and summertime surface air temperature over SEA.

Fine-scale structure of the mid-mantle characterised by global stacks of PP precursors

Science.gov (United States)

Bentham, H. L. M.; Rost, S.; Thorne, M. S.

2017-08-01

Subduction zones are likely a major source of compositional heterogeneities in the mantle, which may preserve a record of the subduction history and mantle convection processes. The fine-scale structure associated with mantle heterogeneities can be studied using the scattered seismic wavefield that arrives as coda to or as energy preceding many body wave arrivals. In this study we analyse precursors to PP by creating stacks recorded at globally distributed stations. We create stacks aligned on the PP arrival in 5° distance bins (with range 70-120°) from 600 earthquakes recorded at 193 stations stacking a total of 7320 seismic records. As the energy trailing the direct P arrival, the P coda, interferes with the PP precursors, we suppress the P coda by subtracting a best fitting exponential curve to this energy. The resultant stacks show that PP precursors related to scattering from heterogeneities in the mantle are present for all distances. Lateral variations are explored by producing two regional stacks across the Atlantic and Pacific hemispheres, but we find only negligible differences in the precursory signature between these two regions. The similarity of these two regions suggests that well mixed subducted material can survive at upper and mid-mantle depth. To describe the scattered wavefield in the mantle, we compare the global stacks to synthetic seismograms generated using a Monte Carlo phonon scattering technique. We propose a best-fitting layered heterogeneity model, BRT2017, characterised by a three layer mantle with a background heterogeneity strength (ɛ = 0.8%) and a depth-interval of increased heterogeneity strength (ɛ = 1%) between 1000 km and 1800 km. The scalelength of heterogeneity is found to be 8 km throughout the mantle. Since mantle heterogeneity of 8 km scale may be linked to subducted oceanic crust, the detection of increased heterogeneity at mid-mantle depths could be associated with stalled slabs due to increases in viscosity

Ecosystem service trade-offs across global contexts and scales

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jeannine Cavender-Bares

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Meeting human needs while sustaining the planet's life support systems is the fundamental challenge of our time. What role sustenance of biodiversity and contrasting ecosystem services should play in achieving a sustainable future varies along philosophical, cultural, institutional, societal, and governmental divisions. Contrasting biophysical constraints and perspectives on human well-being arise both within and across countries that span the tropics and temperate zone. Direct sustenance of livelihoods from ecosystem services in East Africa contrasts with the complex and diverse relationships with the land in Mexico and the highly monetary-based economy of the United States. Lack of understanding of the contrasting contexts in which decision-making about trade-offs occurs creates impediments to collective global efforts to sustain the Earth's life support systems. While theoretical notions of the goals of sustainability science seek a unified path forward, realities on the ground present challenges. This Special Feature seeks to provide both an analytical framework and a series of case studies to illuminate impediments posed to sustainability by contrasting biophysical constraints and human perspectives on what should be sustained. The contributors aim to clarify the trade-offs posed to human welfare in sustaining biodiversity and ecosystem services and the challenges in managing for a sustainable future in which human well-being is not compromised as compared to today. Our goal is to provide novel insights on how sustainability can be achieved internationally through exploration of constraints, trade-offs, and human values examined at multiple scales, and across geographic regions from a range of cultural perspectives.

Investigating synoptic-scale monsoonal disturbances in an idealized moist model

Science.gov (United States)

Clark, S.; Ming, Y.

2017-12-01

Recent studies have highlighted the potential utility of a theory for a "moisture-dynamical" instability in explaining the time and spatial scales of intra-seasonal variability associated with the Indian summer monsoon. These studies suggest that a localized region in the subtropics with mean low-level westerly winds and mean temperature increasing poleward will allow the formation of westward propagating precipitation anomalies associated with moist Rossby-like waves. Here we test this theory in an idealized moist model with realistic radiative transfer by inducing a local poleward-increasing temperature gradient by placing a continent with simplified hydrology in the subtropics. We experiment with different treatments of land-surface hydrology, ranging from the extreme (treating land as having the same heat capacity as the slab ocean used in the model, and turning off evaporation completely over land) to the more realistic (bucket hydrology, with a decreased heat capacity over land), and different continental shapes, ranging from a zonally-symmetric continent, to Earth-like continental geometry. Precipitation rates produced by the simulations are analyzed using space-time spectral analysis, and connected to variability in the winds through regression analysis. The observed behavior is discussed with respect to predictions from the theory.

Deriving Scaling Factors Using a Global Hydrological Model to Restore GRACE Total Water Storage Changes for China's Yangtze River Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Long, Di; Yang, Yuting; Yoshihide, Wada; Hong, Yang; Liang, Wei; Chen, Yaning; Yong, Bin; Hou, Aizhong; Wei, Jiangfeng; Chen, Lu

2015-01-01

This study used a global hydrological model (GHM), PCR-GLOBWB, which simulates surface water storage changes, natural and human induced groundwater storage changes, and the interactions between surface water and subsurface water, to generate scaling factors by mimicking low-pass filtering of GRACE signals. Signal losses in GRACE data were subsequently restored by the scaling factors from PCR-GLOBWB. Results indicate greater spatial heterogeneity in scaling factor from PCR-GLOBWB and CLM4.0 than that from GLDAS-1 Noah due to comprehensive simulation of surface and subsurface water storage changes for PCR-GLOBWB and CLM4.0. Filtered GRACE total water storage (TWS) changes applied with PCR-GLOBWB scaling factors show closer agreement with water budget estimates of TWS changes than those with scaling factors from other land surface models (LSMs) in China's Yangtze River basin. Results of this study develop a further understanding of the behavior of scaling factors from different LSMs or GHMs over hydrologically complex basins, and could be valuable in providing more accurate TWS changes for hydrological applications (e.g., monitoring drought and groundwater storage depletion) over regions where human-induced interactions between surface water and subsurface water are intensive.

Picosecond scale experimental verification of a globally convergent algorithm for a coefficient inverse problem

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klibanov, Michael V; Pantong, Natee; Fiddy, Michael A; Schenk, John; Beilina, Larisa

2010-01-01

A globally convergent algorithm by the first and third authors for a 3D hyperbolic coefficient inverse problem is verified on experimental data measured in the picosecond scale regime. Quantifiable images of dielectric abnormalities are obtained. The total measurement timing of a 100 ps pulse for one detector location was 1.2 ns with 20 ps (=0.02 ns) time step between two consecutive readings. Blind tests have consistently demonstrated an accurate imaging of refractive indexes of dielectric abnormalities. At the same time, it is shown that a modified gradient method is inapplicable to this kind of experimental data. This inverse algorithm is also applicable to other types of imaging modalities, e.g. acoustics. Potential applications are in airport security, imaging of land mines, imaging of defects in non-distractive testing, etc

Multi-scale symbolic transfer entropy analysis of EEG

Science.gov (United States)

Yao, Wenpo; Wang, Jun

2017-10-01

From both global and local perspectives, we symbolize two kinds of EEG and analyze their dynamic and asymmetrical information using multi-scale transfer entropy. Multi-scale process with scale factor from 1 to 199 and step size of 2 is applied to EEG of healthy people and epileptic patients, and then the permutation with embedding dimension of 3 and global approach are used to symbolize the sequences. The forward and reverse symbol sequences are taken as the inputs of transfer entropy. Scale factor intervals of permutation and global way are (37, 57) and (65, 85) where the two kinds of EEG have satisfied entropy distinctions. When scale factor is 67, transfer entropy of the healthy and epileptic subjects of permutation, 0.1137 and 0.1028, have biggest difference. And the corresponding values of the global symbolization is 0.0641 and 0.0601 which lies in the scale factor of 165. Research results show that permutation which takes contribution of local information has better distinction and is more effectively applied to our multi-scale transfer entropy analysis of EEG.

Cosmic microwave background constraints for global strings and global monopoles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lopez-Eiguren, Asier; Lizarraga, Joanes; Urrestilla, Jon; Hindmarsh, Mark

2017-01-01

We present the first cosmic microwave background (CMB) power spectra from numerical simulations of the global O( N ) linear σ-model, with N =2,3, which have global strings and monopoles as topological defects. In order to compute the CMB power spectra we compute the unequal time correlators (UETCs) of the energy-momentum tensor, showing that they fall off at high wave number faster than naive estimates based on the geometry of the defects, indicating non-trivial (anti-)correlations between the defects and the surrounding Goldstone boson field. We obtain source functions for Einstein-Boltzmann solvers from the UETCs, using a recently developed method that improves the modelling at the radiation-matter transition. We show that the interpolation function that mimics the transition is similar to other defect models, but not identical, confirming the non-universality of the interpolation function. The CMB power spectra for global strings and global monopoles have the same overall shape as those obtained using the non-linear σ-model approximation, which is well captured by a large- N calculation. However, the amplitudes are larger than the large- N calculation would naively predict, and in the case of global strings much larger: a factor of 20 at the peak. Finally we compare the CMB power spectra with the latest CMB data in other to put limits on the allowed contribution to the temperature power spectrum at multipole l = 10 of 1.7% for global strings and 2.4% for global monopoles. These limits correspond to symmetry-breaking scales of 2.9× 10 15 GeV (6.3× 10 14 GeV with the expected logarithmic scaling of the effective string tension between the simulation time and decoupling) and 6.4× 10 15 GeV respectively. The bound on global strings is a significant one for the ultra-light axion scenario with axion masses m a ∼< 10 −28 eV . These upper limits indicate that gravitational waves from global topological defects will not be observable at the gravitational wave

Xenophobic Killings In South Africa And Economic Globalization ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Globalization entails the growing integration of economies and societies and sometimes referred to as economic globalization. It is the growth of worldwide networks of interdependence which include the large scale operation of finance and business in world scale irrespective of national borders. IFE Psychologia – Special ...

Medicalization of global health 2: The medicalization of global mental health.

Science.gov (United States)

Clark, Jocalyn

2014-01-01

Once an orphan field, 'global mental health' now has wide acknowledgement and prominence on the global health agenda. Increased recognition draws needed attention to individual suffering and the population impacts, but medicalizing global mental health produces a narrow view of the problems and solutions. Early framing by advocates of the global mental health problem emphasised biological disease, linked psychiatry with neurology, and reinforced categories of mental health disorders. Universality of biomedical concepts across culture is assumed in the globalisation of mental health but is strongly disputed by transcultural psychiatrists and anthropologists. Global mental health movement priorities take an individualised view, emphasising treatment and scale-up and neglecting social and structural determinants of health. To meet international targets and address the problem's broad social and cultural dimensions, the global mental health movement and advocates must develop more comprehensive strategies and include more diverse perspectives.

Single-grain 40Ar-39Ar ages of glauconies: implications for the geologic time scale and global sea level variations

Science.gov (United States)

Smith; Evensen; York; Odin

1998-03-06

The mineral series glaucony supplies 40% of the absolute-age database for the geologic time scale of the last 250 million years. However, glauconies have long been suspected of giving young potassium-argon ages on bulk samples. Laser-probe argon-argon dating shows that glaucony populations comprise grains with a wide range of ages, suggesting a period of genesis several times longer ( approximately 5 million years) than previously thought. An estimate of the age of their enclosing sediments (and therefore of time scale boundaries) is given by the oldest nonrelict grains in the glaucony populations, whereas the formation times of the younger grains appear to be modulated by global sea level.

Global Multihazard Mortality Risks and Distribution

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Multihazard Mortality Risks and Distribution is a 2.5 minute grid identifying and characterizing the nature of multihazard risk at the global scale. For this...

Think global, act local: Preserving the global commons

OpenAIRE

Hauser, Oliver P.; Hendriks, Achim; Rand, David G.; Nowak, Martin A.

2016-01-01

Preserving global public goods, such as the planet’s ecosystem, depends on large-scale cooperation, which is difficult to achieve because the standard reciprocity mechanisms weaken in large groups. Here we demonstrate a method by which reciprocity can maintain cooperation in a large-scale public goods game (PGG). In a first experiment, participants in groups of on average 39 people play one round of a Prisoner’s Dilemma (PD) with their two nearest neighbours on a cyclic network after each PGG...

Thermal Tides During the 2001 Martian Global-Scale Dust Storm

Science.gov (United States)

Guzewich, Scott D.; Wilson, R. John; McConnochie, Timothy H.; Toigo, Anthony D.; Bandfield, Donald J.; Smith, Michael D.

2014-01-01

The 2001 (Mars Year 25) global dust storm radically altered the dynamics of the Martian atmosphere. Using observations from the Thermal Emission Spectrometer onboard the Mars Global Surveyor spacecraft and Mars WRF general circulation model simulations, we examine the changes to thermal tides and planetary waves caused by the storm. We find that the extratropical diurnal migrating tide is dramatically enhanced during the storm, particularly in the southern hemisphere, reaching amplitudes of more than 20 K. The tropical diurnal migrating tide is weakened to almost undetectable levels. The diurnal Kelvin waves are also significantly weakened, particularly during the period of global expansion at Ls=200deg-210deg. In contrast, the westward propagating diurnal wavenumber 2 tide strengthens to 4-8 K at altitudes above 30km. The wavenumber 1 stationary wave reaches amplitudes of 10-12 K at 50deg-70degN, far larger than is typically seen during this time of year. The phase of this stationary wave and the enhancement of the diurnal wavenumber 2 tide appear to be responses to the high-altitude westward propagating equatorial wavenumber 1 structure in dust mixing ratio observed during the storm in previous works. This work provides a global picture of dust storm wave dynamics that reveals the coupling between the tropics and high-latitude wave responses. We conclude that the zonal distribution of thermotidal forcing from atmospheric aerosol concentration is as important to understanding the atmospheric wave response as the total global mean aerosol optical depth.

Does a General Temperature-Dependent Q10 Model of Soil Respiration Exist at Biome and Global Scale?

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Hua CHEN; Han-Qin TIAN

2005-01-01

Soil respiration (SR) is commonly modeled by a Q10 (an indicator of temperature sensitivity)function in ecosystem models. Q10is usually treated as a constant of 2 in these models, although Q10 value of SR often decreases with increasing temperatures. It remains unclear whether a general temperaturedependent Q10 model of SR exists at biome and global scale. In this paper, we have compiled the long-term Q10 data of 38 SR studies ranging from the Boreal, Temperate, to Tropical/Subtropical biome on four continents.Our analysis indicated that the general temperature-dependent biome Q10 models of SR existed, especially in the Boreal and Temperate biomes. A single-exponential model was better than a simple linear model in fitting the average Q10 values at the biome scale. Average soil temperature is a better predictor of Q10 value than average air temperature in these models, especially in the Boreal biome. Soil temperature alone could explain about 50% of the Q10 variations in both the Boreal and Temperate biome single-exponential Q10 model. Q10 value of SR decreased with increasing soil temperature but at quite different rates among the three biome Q10 models. The k values (Q10 decay rate constants) were 0.09, 0.07, and 0.02/℃ in the Boreal, Temperate, and Tropical/Subtropical biome, respectively, suggesting that Q10 value is the most sensitive to soil temperature change in the Boreal biome, the second in the Temperate biome, and the least sensitive in the Tropical/Subtropical biome. This also indirectly confirms that acclimation of SR in many soil warming experiments probably occurs. The k value in the "global" single-exponential Q10 model which combined both the Boreal and Temperate biome data set was 0.08/℃. However, the global general temperature-dependent Q10model developed using the data sets of the three biomes is not adequate for predicting Q10 values of SR globally.The existence of the general temperature-dependent Q10 models of SR in the Boreal and

Assessment of Global Functioning in Adolescents with Autism Spectrum Disorders: Utility of the Developmental Disability-Child Global Assessment Scale

Science.gov (United States)

White, Susan W.; Smith, Laura A.; Schry, Amie R.

2014-01-01

Assessment of global functioning is an important consideration in treatment outcome research; yet, there is little guidance on its evidence-based assessment for children with autism spectrum disorders. This study investigated the utility and validity of clinician-rated global functioning using the Developmental Disability-Child Global Assessment…

Spatial scale separation in regional climate modelling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Feser, F.

2005-07-01

In this thesis the concept of scale separation is introduced as a tool for first improving regional climate model simulations and, secondly, to explicitly detect and describe the added value obtained by regional modelling. The basic idea behind this is that global and regional climate models have their best performance at different spatial scales. Therefore the regional model should not alter the global model's results at large scales. The for this purpose designed concept of nudging of large scales controls the large scales within the regional model domain and keeps them close to the global forcing model whereby the regional scales are left unchanged. For ensemble simulations nudging of large scales strongly reduces the divergence of the different simulations compared to the standard approach ensemble that occasionally shows large differences for the individual realisations. For climate hindcasts this method leads to results which are on average closer to observed states than the standard approach. Also the analysis of the regional climate model simulation can be improved by separating the results into different spatial domains. This was done by developing and applying digital filters that perform the scale separation effectively without great computational effort. The separation of the results into different spatial scales simplifies model validation and process studies. The search for 'added value' can be conducted on the spatial scales the regional climate model was designed for giving clearer results than by analysing unfiltered meteorological fields. To examine the skill of the different simulations pattern correlation coefficients were calculated between the global reanalyses, the regional climate model simulation and, as a reference, of an operational regional weather analysis. The regional climate model simulation driven with large-scale constraints achieved a high increase in similarity to the operational analyses for medium-scale 2 meter

Global Atmosphere Watch Workshop on Measurement-Model Fusion for Global Total Atmospheric Deposition (MMF-GTAD)

Science.gov (United States)

The World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) Programme coordinates high-quality observations of atmospheric composition from global to local scales with the aim to drive high-quality and high-impact science while co-producing a new generation of pro...

Revisiting the contemporary sea-level budget on global and regional scales.

Science.gov (United States)

Rietbroek, Roelof; Brunnabend, Sandra-Esther; Kusche, Jürgen; Schröter, Jens; Dahle, Christoph

2016-02-09

Dividing the sea-level budget into contributions from ice sheets and glaciers, the water cycle, steric expansion, and crustal movement is challenging, especially on regional scales. Here, Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) gravity observations and sea-level anomalies from altimetry are used in a joint inversion, ensuring a consistent decomposition of the global and regional sea-level rise budget. Over the years 2002-2014, we find a global mean steric trend of 1.38 ± 0.16 mm/y, compared with a total trend of 2.74 ± 0.58 mm/y. This is significantly larger than steric trends derived from in situ temperature/salinity profiles and models which range from 0.66 ± 0.2 to 0.94 ± 0.1 mm/y. Mass contributions from ice sheets and glaciers (1.37 ± 0.09 mm/y, accelerating with 0.03 ± 0.02 mm/y(2)) are offset by a negative hydrological component (-0.29 ± 0.26 mm/y). The combined mass rate (1.08 ± 0.3 mm/y) is smaller than previous GRACE estimates (up to 2 mm/y), but it is consistent with the sum of individual contributions (ice sheets, glaciers, and hydrology) found in literature. The altimetric sea-level budget is closed by coestimating a remaining component of 0.22 ± 0.26 mm/y. Well above average sea-level rise is found regionally near the Philippines (14.7 ± 4.39 mm/y) and Indonesia (8.3 ± 4.7 mm/y) which is dominated by steric components (11.2 ± 3.58 mm/y and 6.4 ± 3.18 mm/y, respectively). In contrast, in the central and Eastern part of the Pacific, negative steric trends (down to -2.8 ± 1.53 mm/y) are detected. Significant regional components are found, up to 5.3 ± 2.6 mm/y in the northwest Atlantic, which are likely due to ocean bottom pressure variations.

Wheat yield loss attributable to heat waves, drought and water excess at the global, national and subnational scales

Science.gov (United States)

Zampieri, M.; Ceglar, A.; Dentener, F.; Toreti, A.

2017-06-01

Heat waves and drought are often considered the most damaging climatic stressors for wheat. In this study, we characterize and attribute the effects of these climate extremes on wheat yield anomalies (at global and national scales) from 1980 to 2010. Using a combination of up-to-date heat wave and drought indexes (the latter capturing both excessively dry and wet conditions), we have developed a composite indicator that is able to capture the spatio-temporal characteristics of the underlying physical processes in the different agro-climatic regions of the world. At the global level, our diagnostic explains a significant portion (more than 40%) of the inter-annual production variability. By quantifying the contribution of national yield anomalies to global fluctuations, we have found that just two concurrent yield anomalies affecting the larger producers of the world could be responsible for more than half of the global annual fluctuations. The relative importance of heat stress and drought in determining the yield anomalies depends on the region. Moreover, in contrast to common perception, water excess affects wheat production more than drought in several countries. We have also performed the same analysis at the subnational level for France, which is the largest wheat producer of the European Union, and home to a range of climatic zones. Large subnational variability of inter-annual wheat yield is mostly captured by the heat and water stress indicators, consistently with the country-level result.

Building essential biodiversity variables (EBVs) of species distribution and abundance at a global scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Kissling, W Daniel; Ahumada, Jorge A; Bowser, Anne; Fernandez, Miguel; Fernández, Néstor; García, Enrique Alonso; Guralnick, Robert P; Isaac, Nick J B; Kelling, Steve; Los, Wouter; McRae, Louise; Mihoub, Jean-Baptiste; Obst, Matthias; Santamaria, Monica; Skidmore, Andrew K; Williams, Kristen J; Agosti, Donat; Amariles, Daniel; Arvanitidis, Christos; Bastin, Lucy; De Leo, Francesca; Egloff, Willi; Elith, Jane; Hobern, Donald; Martin, David; Pereira, Henrique M; Pesole, Graziano; Peterseil, Johannes; Saarenmaa, Hannu; Schigel, Dmitry; Schmeller, Dirk S; Segata, Nicola; Turak, Eren; Uhlir, Paul F; Wee, Brian; Hardisty, Alex R

2018-02-01

Much biodiversity data is collected worldwide, but it remains challenging to assemble the scattered knowledge for assessing biodiversity status and trends. The concept of Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) was introduced to structure biodiversity monitoring globally, and to harmonize and standardize biodiversity data from disparate sources to capture a minimum set of critical variables required to study, report and manage biodiversity change. Here, we assess the challenges of a 'Big Data' approach to building global EBV data products across taxa and spatiotemporal scales, focusing on species distribution and abundance. The majority of currently available data on species distributions derives from incidentally reported observations or from surveys where presence-only or presence-absence data are sampled repeatedly with standardized protocols. Most abundance data come from opportunistic population counts or from population time series using standardized protocols (e.g. repeated surveys of the same population from single or multiple sites). Enormous complexity exists in integrating these heterogeneous, multi-source data sets across space, time, taxa and different sampling methods. Integration of such data into global EBV data products requires correcting biases introduced by imperfect detection and varying sampling effort, dealing with different spatial resolution and extents, harmonizing measurement units from different data sources or sampling methods, applying statistical tools and models for spatial inter- or extrapolation, and quantifying sources of uncertainty and errors in data and models. To support the development of EBVs by the Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network (GEO BON), we identify 11 key workflow steps that will operationalize the process of building EBV data products within and across research infrastructures worldwide. These workflow steps take multiple sequential activities into account, including identification and

Broadband Electrophysiological Dynamics Contribute to Global Resting-State fMRI Signal.

Science.gov (United States)

Wen, Haiguang; Liu, Zhongming

2016-06-01

Spontaneous activity observed with resting-state fMRI is used widely to uncover the brain's intrinsic functional networks in health and disease. Although many networks appear modular and specific, global and nonspecific fMRI fluctuations also exist and both pose a challenge and present an opportunity for characterizing and understanding brain networks. Here, we used a multimodal approach to investigate the neural correlates to the global fMRI signal in the resting state. Like fMRI, resting-state power fluctuations of broadband and arrhythmic, or scale-free, macaque electrocorticography and human magnetoencephalography activity were correlated globally. The power fluctuations of scale-free human electroencephalography (EEG) were coupled with the global component of simultaneously acquired resting-state fMRI, with the global hemodynamic change lagging the broadband spectral change of EEG by ∼5 s. The levels of global and nonspecific fluctuation and synchronization in scale-free population activity also varied across and depended on arousal states. Together, these results suggest that the neural origin of global resting-state fMRI activity is the broadband power fluctuation in scale-free population activity observable with macroscopic electrical or magnetic recordings. Moreover, the global fluctuation in neurophysiological and hemodynamic activity is likely modulated through diffuse neuromodulation pathways that govern arousal states and vigilance levels. This study provides new insights into the neural origin of resting-state fMRI. Results demonstrate that the broadband power fluctuation of scale-free electrophysiology is globally synchronized and directly coupled with the global component of spontaneous fMRI signals, in contrast to modularly synchronized fluctuations in oscillatory neural activity. These findings lead to a new hypothesis that scale-free and oscillatory neural processes account for global and modular patterns of functional connectivity observed

Global monthly water stress: II. Water demand and severity of water

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wada, Y.; Beek, L.P.H. van; Viviroli, D.; Dürr, H.H.; Weingartner, R.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

2011-01-01

This paper assesses global water stress at a finer temporal scale compared to conventional assessments. To calculate time series of global water stress at a monthly time scale, global water availability, as obtained from simulations of monthly river discharge from the companion paper, is confronted

The Global Economic Crisis and the Global Accumulation of Capital

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wojciech Błasiak

2010-06-01

Full Text Available The article presents a thesis that the current global economic crisis is the Second Great Depression, after the First Great Depression of the 30s. This is a global crisis of capital accumulation, which is caused by insufficient global demand. The author analy - ses the theoretical output of John Maynard Keynes, Michał Kalecki, Paul Baran and Paul Sweezy. The post-war „Golden Age” of the capitalist economy ended in 1973 with a de - ep stag flation of the 70s and 80s. Capitals searching for profitable investment, started to be invested in financial speculation, growing since the 80s. This speculation was enabled on a global scale by the Washington Consensus in the 90s. The explosion of financializa - tion of the global economy began. The author presents the analyses of Paul Sweezy and Harry Magdoff, who argued that this was financialization of global accumulation of ca - pital in a form of world financial speculation. This process was completed by the finan - cial crash in 2008, which was the implosion of global speculative balloons. Economics and global economic policy faced challenges of creating new world economic order.

The Demographic Crisis and Global Migration - Selected Issues

Science.gov (United States)

Frątczak, Ewa Zofia

2016-01-01

Currently the world is undergoing a serious demographic shift, characterised by slowing population growth in developed countries. However, the population in certain less-developed regions of the world is still increasing. According to UN data, as of 2015, (World...2015), 244 million people (or 3.3% of the global population) lived outside their country of birth. While most of these migrants travel abroad looking for better economic and social conditions, there are also those forced to move by political crises, revolutions and war. Such migration is being experienced currently in Europe, a continent which is thus going through both a demographic crisis related to the low fertility rate and population ageing, and a migration crisis. Global migrations link up inseparably with demographic transformation processes taking place globally and resulting in the changing tempo of population growth. Attracting and discouraging migration factors are changing at the same time, as is the scale and range of global migration, and with these also the global consequences. The focus of work addressed in this paper is on global population, the demographic transformation and the role of global migrations, as well as the range and scale of international migration, and selected aspects of global migrations including participation in the global labour market, the scale of monetary transfers (remittances) and the place of global migration in the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (Transforming...2015) and the Europe of two crises (Domeny 2016).

Atlas of the global distribution of atmospheric heating during the global weather experiment

Science.gov (United States)

Schaack, Todd K.; Johnson, Donald R.

1991-01-01

Global distributions of atmospheric heating for the annual cycle of the Global Weather Experiment are estimated from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Level 3b data set. Distributions of monthly, seasonally, and annually averaged heating are presented for isentropic and isobaric layers within the troposphere and for the troposphere as a whole. The distributions depict a large-scale structure of atmospheric heating that appears spatially and temporally consistent with known features of the global circulation and the seasonal evolution.

Cross-scale modelling of the climate-change mitigation potential of biochar systems: Global implications of nano-scale processes

Science.gov (United States)

Woolf, Dominic; Lehmann, Johannes

2014-05-01

With CO2 emissions still tracking the upper bounds of projected emissions scenarios, it is becoming increasingly urgent to reduce net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and increasingly likely that restricting future atmospheric GHG concentrations to within safe limits will require an eventual transition towards net negative GHG emissions. Few measures capable of providing negative emissions at a globally-significant scale are currently known. Two that are most often considered include carbon sequestration in biomass and soil, and biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). In common with these two approaches, biochar also relies on the use of photosynthetically-bound carbon in biomass. But, because biomass and land are limited, it is critical that these resources are efficiently allocated between biomass/soil sequestration, bioenergy, BECCS, biochar, and other competing uses such as food, fiber and biodiversity. In many situations, biochar can offer advantages that may make it the preferred use of a limited biomass supply. These advantages include that: 1) Biochar can provide valuable benefits to agriculture by improving soil fertility and crop production, and reducing fertlizer and irrigation requirements. 2) Biochar is significantly more stable than biomass or other forms of soil carbon, thus lowering the risk of future losses compared to sequestration in biomass or soil organic carbon. 3) Gases and volatiles produced by pyrolysis can be combusted for energy (which may offset fossil fuel emissions). 4) Biochar can further lower GHG emissions by reducing nitrous oxide emissions from soil and by enhancing net primary production. Determining the optimal use of biomass requires that we are able to model not only the climate-change mitigation impact of each option, but also their economic and wider environmental impacts. Thus, what is required is a systems modelling approach that integrates components representing soil biogeochemistry, hydrology, crop

Global-scale Observations of the Limb and Disk (GOLD): Science Implementation

Science.gov (United States)

Solomon, S. C.; McClintock, W. E.; Eastes, R.; Anderson, D. N.; Andersson, L.; Burns, A. G.; Codrescu, M.; Daniell, R. E.; England, S.; Eparvier, F. G.; Evans, J. S.; Krywonos, A.; Lumpe, J. D.; Richmond, A. D.; Rusch, D. W.; Siegmund, O.; Woods, T. N.

2017-12-01

The Global-scale Observations of the Limb and Disk (GOLD) is a NASA mission of opportunity that will image the Earth's thermosphere and ionosphere from geostationary orbit. GOLD will investigate how the thermosphere-ionosphere (T-I) system responds to geomagnetic storms, solar radiation, and upward propagating tides and how the structure of the equatorial ionosphere influences the formation and evolution of equatorial plasma density irregularities. GOLD consists of a pair of identical imaging spectrographs that will measure airglow emissions at far-ultraviolet wavelengths from 132 to 162 nm. On the disk, temperature and composition will be determined during the day using emissions from molecular nitrogen Lyman-Birge-Hopfield (LBH) band and atomic oxygen 135.6 nm, and electron density will be derived at night from 135.6 nm emission. On the limb, exospheric temperature will be derived from LBH emission profiles, and molecular oxygen density will be measured using stellar occultations. This presentation describes the GOLD mission science implementation including the as-built instrument performance and the planned observing scenario. It also describes the results of simulations performed by the GOLD team to validate that the measured instrument performance and observing plan will return adequate data to address the science objectives of the mission.

Synoptic-scale fire weather conditions in Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Hayasaka, Hiroshi; Tanaka, Hiroshi L.; Bieniek, Peter A.

2016-09-01

Recent concurrent widespread fires in Alaska are evaluated to assess their associated synoptic-scale weather conditions. Several periods of high fire activity from 2003 to 2015 were identified using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) hotspot data by considering the number of daily hotspots and their continuity. Fire weather conditions during the top six periods of high fire activity in the fire years of 2004, 2005, 2009, and 2015 were analyzed using upper level (500 hPa) and near surface level (1000 hPa) atmospheric reanalysis data. The top four fire-periods occurred under similar unique high-pressure fire weather conditions related to Rossby wave breaking (RWB). Following the ignition of wildfires, fire weather conditions related to RWB events typically result in two hotspot peaks occurring before and after high-pressure systems move from south to north across Alaska. A ridge in the Gulf of Alaska resulted in southwesterly wind during the first hotspot peak. After the high-pressure system moved north under RWB conditions, the Beaufort Sea High developed and resulted in relatively strong easterly wind in Interior Alaska and a second (largest) hotspot peak during each fire period. Low-pressure-related fire weather conditions occurring under cyclogenesis in the Arctic also resulted in high fire activity under southwesterly wind with a single large hot-spot peak.

Scaling up towards international targets for AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria: contribution of global fund-supported programs in 2011-2015.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Itamar Katz

Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: The paper projects the contribution to 2011-2015 international targets of three major pandemics by programs in 140 countries funded by the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, the largest external financier of tuberculosis and malaria programs and a major external funder of HIV programs in low and middle income countries. DESIGN: Estimates, using past trends, for the period 2011-2015 of the number of persons receiving antiretroviral (ARV treatment, tuberculosis case detection using the internationally approved DOTS strategy, and insecticide-treated nets (ITNs to be delivered by programs in low and middle income countries supported by the Global Fund compared to international targets established by UNAIDS, Stop TB Partnership, Roll Back Malaria Partnership and the World Health Organisation. RESULTS: Global Fund-supported programs are projected to provide ARV treatment to 5.5-5.8 million people, providing 30%-31% of the 2015 international target. Investments in tuberculosis and malaria control will enable reaching in 2015 60%-63% of the international target for tuberculosis case detection and 30%-35% of the ITN distribution target in sub-Saharan Africa. CONCLUSION: Global Fund investments will substantially contribute to the achievement by 2015 of international targets for HIV, TB and malaria. However, additional large scale international and domestic financing is needed if these targets are to be reached by 2015.

Modifying a dynamic global vegetation model for simulating large spatial scale land surface water balance

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, G.; Bartlein, P. J.

2012-01-01

Water balance models of simple structure are easier to grasp and more clearly connect cause and effect than models of complex structure. Such models are essential for studying large spatial scale land surface water balance in the context of climate and land cover change, both natural and anthropogenic. This study aims to (i) develop a large spatial scale water balance model by modifying a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM), and (ii) test the model's performance in simulating actual evapotranspiration (ET), soil moisture and surface runoff for the coterminous United States (US). Toward these ends, we first introduced development of the "LPJ-Hydrology" (LH) model by incorporating satellite-based land covers into the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) DGVM instead of dynamically simulating them. We then ran LH using historical (1982-2006) climate data and satellite-based land covers at 2.5 arc-min grid cells. The simulated ET, soil moisture and surface runoff were compared to existing sets of observed or simulated data for the US. The results indicated that LH captures well the variation of monthly actual ET (R2 = 0.61, p 0.46, p 0.52) with observed values over the years 1982-2006, respectively. The modeled spatial patterns of annual ET and surface runoff are in accordance with previously published data. Compared to its predecessor, LH simulates better monthly stream flow in winter and early spring by incorporating effects of solar radiation on snowmelt. Overall, this study proves the feasibility of incorporating satellite-based land-covers into a DGVM for simulating large spatial scale land surface water balance. LH developed in this study should be a useful tool for studying effects of climate and land cover change on land surface hydrology at large spatial scales.

"Developing culturally sensitive affect scales for global mental health research and practice: Emotional balance, not named syndromes, in Indian Adivasi subjective well-being".

Science.gov (United States)

Snodgrass, Jeffrey G; Lacy, Michael G; Upadhyay, Chakrapani

2017-08-01

We present a perspective to analyze mental health without either a) imposing Western illness categories or b) adopting local or "native" categories of mental distress. Our approach takes as axiomatic only that locals within any culture share a cognitive and verbal lexicon of salient positive and negative emotional experiences, which an appropriate and repeatable set of ethnographic procedures can elicit. Our approach is provisionally agnostic with respect to either Western or native nosological categories, and instead focuses on persons' relative frequency of experiencing emotions. Putting this perspective into practice in India, our ethnographic fieldwork (2006-2014) and survey analysis (N = 219) resulted in a 40-item Positive and Negative Affect Scale (PANAS), which we used to assess the mental well-being of Indigenous persons (the tribal Sahariya) in the Indian states of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. Generated via standard cognitive anthropological procedures that can be replicated elsewhere, measures such as this possess features of psychiatric scales favored by leaders in global mental health initiatives. Though not capturing locally named distress syndromes, our scale is nonetheless sensitive to local emotional experiences, frames of meaning, and "idioms of distress." By sharing traits of both global and also locally-derived diagnoses, approaches like ours can help identify synergies between them. For example, employing data reduction techniques such as factor analysis-where diagnostic and screening categories emerge inductively ex post facto from emotional symptom clusters, rather than being deduced or assigned a priori by either global mental health experts or locals themselves-reveals hidden overlaps between local wellness idioms and global ones. Practically speaking, our perspective, which assesses both emotional frailty and also potential sources of emotional resilience and balance, while eschewing all named illness categories, can be deployed in

Interactions Between Atmospheric Aerosols and Marine Boundary Layer Clouds on Regional and Global Scales

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Zhen

Airborne aerosols are crucial atmospheric constituents that are involved in global climate change and human life qualities. Understanding the nature and magnitude of aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions is critical in model predictions for atmospheric radiation budget and the water cycle. The interactions depend on a variety of factors including aerosol physicochemical complexity, cloud types, meteorological and thermodynamic regimes and data processing techniques. This PhD work is an effort to quantify the relationships among aerosol, clouds, and precipitation on both global and regional scales by using satellite retrievals and aircraft measurements. The first study examines spatial distributions of conversion rate of cloud water to rainwater in warm maritime clouds over the globe by using NASA A-Train satellite data. This study compares the time scale of the onset of precipitation with different aerosol categories defined by values of aerosol optical depth, fine mode fraction, and Angstrom Exponent. The results indicate that conversion time scales are actually quite sensitive to lower tropospheric static stability (LTSS) and cloud liquid water path (LWP), in addition to aerosol type. Analysis shows that tropical Pacific Ocean is dominated by the highest average conversion rate while subtropical warm cloud regions (far northeastern Pacific Ocean, far southeastern Pacific Ocean, Western Africa coastal area) exhibit the opposite result. Conversion times are mostly shorter for lower LTSS regimes. When LTSS condition is fixed, higher conversion rates coincide with higher LWP and lower aerosol index categories. After a general global view of physical property quantifications, the rest of the presented PhD studies is focused on regional airborne observations, especially bulk cloud water chemistry and aerosol aqueous-phase reactions during the summertime off the California coast. Local air mass origins are categorized into three distinct types (ocean, ships, and land

Global Climate Forcing from Albedo Change Caused by Large-scale Deforestation and Reforestation: Quantification and Attribution of Geographic Variation

Science.gov (United States)

Jiao, Tong; Williams, Christopher A.; Ghimire, Bardan; Masek, Jeffrey; Gao, Feng; Schaaf, Crystal

2017-01-01

Large-scale deforestation and reforestation have contributed substantially to historical and contemporary global climate change in part through albedo-induced radiative forcing, with meaningful implications for forest management aiming to mitigate climate change. Associated warming or cooling varies widely across the globe due to a range of factors including forest type, snow cover, and insolation, but resulting geographic variation remain spoorly described and has been largely based on model assessments. This study provides an observation-based approach to quantify local and global radiative forcings from large-scale deforestation and reforestation and further examines mechanisms that result in the spatial heterogeneity of radiative forcing. We incorporate a new spatially and temporally explicit land cover-specific albedo product derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer with a historical land use data set (Land Use Harmonization product). Spatial variation in radiative forcing was attributed to four mechanisms, including the change in snow-covered albedo, change in snow-free albedo, snow cover fraction, and incoming solar radiation. We find an albedo-only radiative forcing (RF) of -0.819 W m(exp -2) if year 2000 forests were completely deforested and converted to croplands. Albedo RF from global reforestation of present-day croplands to recover year 1700 forests is estimated to be 0.161 W m)exp -2). Snow-cover fraction is identified as the primary factor in determining the spatial variation of radiative forcing in winter, while the magnitude of the change in snow-free albedo is the primary factor determining variations in summertime RF. Findings reinforce the notion that, for conifers at the snowier high latitudes, albedo RF diminishes the warming from forest loss and the cooling from forest gain more so than for other forest types, latitudes, and climate settings.

Global quantum discord and matrix product density operators

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Hai-Lin; Cheng, Hong-Guang; Guo, Xiao; Zhang, Duo; Wu, Yuyin; Xu, Jian; Sun, Zhao-Yu

2018-06-01

In a previous study, we have proposed a procedure to study global quantum discord in 1D chains whose ground states are described by matrix product states [Z.-Y. Sun et al., Ann. Phys. 359, 115 (2015)]. In this paper, we show that with a very simple generalization, the procedure can be used to investigate quantum mixed states described by matrix product density operators, such as quantum chains at finite temperatures and 1D subchains in high-dimensional lattices. As an example, we study the global discord in the ground state of a 2D transverse-field Ising lattice, and pay our attention to the scaling behavior of global discord in 1D sub-chains of the lattice. We find that, for any strength of the magnetic field, global discord always shows a linear scaling behavior as the increase of the length of the sub-chains. In addition, global discord and the so-called "discord density" can be used to indicate the quantum phase transition in the model. Furthermore, based upon our numerical results, we make some reliable predictions about the scaling of global discord defined on the n × n sub-squares in the lattice.

Cosmic microwave background constraints for global strings and global monopoles

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lopez-Eiguren, Asier; Lizarraga, Joanes; Urrestilla, Jon [Department of Theoretical Physics, University of the Basque Country UPV/EHU, 48080 Bilbao (Spain); Hindmarsh, Mark, E-mail: asier.lopez@ehu.eus, E-mail: joanes.lizarraga@ehu.eus, E-mail: m.b.hindmarsh@sussex.ac.uk, E-mail: jon.urrestilla@ehu.eus [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Sussex, Brighton, BN1 9QH (United Kingdom)

2017-07-01

We present the first cosmic microwave background (CMB) power spectra from numerical simulations of the global O( N ) linear σ-model, with N =2,3, which have global strings and monopoles as topological defects. In order to compute the CMB power spectra we compute the unequal time correlators (UETCs) of the energy-momentum tensor, showing that they fall off at high wave number faster than naive estimates based on the geometry of the defects, indicating non-trivial (anti-)correlations between the defects and the surrounding Goldstone boson field. We obtain source functions for Einstein-Boltzmann solvers from the UETCs, using a recently developed method that improves the modelling at the radiation-matter transition. We show that the interpolation function that mimics the transition is similar to other defect models, but not identical, confirming the non-universality of the interpolation function. The CMB power spectra for global strings and global monopoles have the same overall shape as those obtained using the non-linear σ-model approximation, which is well captured by a large- N calculation. However, the amplitudes are larger than the large- N calculation would naively predict, and in the case of global strings much larger: a factor of 20 at the peak. Finally we compare the CMB power spectra with the latest CMB data in other to put limits on the allowed contribution to the temperature power spectrum at multipole l = 10 of 1.7% for global strings and 2.4% for global monopoles. These limits correspond to symmetry-breaking scales of 2.9× 10{sup 15} GeV (6.3× 10{sup 14} GeV with the expected logarithmic scaling of the effective string tension between the simulation time and decoupling) and 6.4× 10{sup 15} GeV respectively. The bound on global strings is a significant one for the ultra-light axion scenario with axion masses m {sub a} ∼< 10{sup −28} eV . These upper limits indicate that gravitational waves from global topological defects will not be observable at

Globalization : Countries, Cities and Multinationals

NARCIS (Netherlands)

McCann, Philip; Acs, Zoltan J.

2011-01-01

McCann P. and Acs Z. J. Globalization: countries, cities and multinationals, Regional Studies. This paper explores the relationship between the size of a country, the size of its cities, and the importance of economies of scale in the modern era of globalization. In order to do this, it integrates

Voxel Scale Complex Networks of Functional Connectivity in the Rat Brain: Neurochemical State Dependence of Global and Local Topological Properties

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adam J. Schwarz

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Network analysis of functional imaging data reveals emergent features of the brain as a function of its topological properties. However, the brain is not a homogeneous network, and the dependence of functional connectivity parameters on neuroanatomical substrate and parcellation scale is a key issue. Moreover, the extent to which these topological properties depend on underlying neurochemical changes remains unclear. In the present study, we investigated both global statistical properties and the local, voxel-scale distribution of connectivity parameters of the rat brain. Different neurotransmitter systems were stimulated by pharmacological challenge (d-amphetamine, fluoxetine, and nicotine to discriminate between stimulus-specific functional connectivity and more general features of the rat brain architecture. Although global connectivity parameters were similar, mapping of local connectivity parameters at high spatial resolution revealed strong neuroanatomical dependence of functional connectivity in the rat brain, with clear differentiation between the neocortex and older brain regions. Localized foci of high functional connectivity independent of drug challenge were found in the sensorimotor cortices, consistent with the high neuronal connectivity in these regions. Conversely, the topological properties and node roles in subcortical regions varied with neurochemical state and were dependent on the specific dynamics of the different functional processes elicited.

Multi-Scale Models for the Scale Interaction of Organized Tropical Convection

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Qiu

Assessing the upscale impact of organized tropical convection from small spatial and temporal scales is a research imperative, not only for having a better understanding of the multi-scale structures of dynamical and convective fields in the tropics, but also for eventually helping in the design of new parameterization strategies to improve the next-generation global climate models. Here self-consistent multi-scale models are derived systematically by following the multi-scale asymptotic methods and used to describe the hierarchical structures of tropical atmospheric flows. The advantages of using these multi-scale models lie in isolating the essential components of multi-scale interaction and providing assessment of the upscale impact of the small-scale fluctuations onto the large-scale mean flow through eddy flux divergences of momentum and temperature in a transparent fashion. Specifically, this thesis includes three research projects about multi-scale interaction of organized tropical convection, involving tropical flows at different scaling regimes and utilizing different multi-scale models correspondingly. Inspired by the observed variability of tropical convection on multiple temporal scales, including daily and intraseasonal time scales, the goal of the first project is to assess the intraseasonal impact of the diurnal cycle on the planetary-scale circulation such as the Hadley cell. As an extension of the first project, the goal of the second project is to assess the intraseasonal impact of the diurnal cycle over the Maritime Continent on the Madden-Julian Oscillation. In the third project, the goals are to simulate the baroclinic aspects of the ITCZ breakdown and assess its upscale impact on the planetary-scale circulation over the eastern Pacific. These simple multi-scale models should be useful to understand the scale interaction of organized tropical convection and help improve the parameterization of unresolved processes in global climate models.

Interannual Variability, Global Teleconnection, and Potential Predictability Associated with the Asian Summer Monsoon

Science.gov (United States)

Lau, K. M.; Kim, K. M.; Li, J. Y.

2001-01-01

In this Chapter, aspects of global teleconnections associated with the interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) are discussed. The basic differences in the basic dynamics of the South Asian Monsoon and the East Asian monsoon, and their implications on global linkages are discussed. Two teleconnection modes linking ASM variability to summertime precipitation over the continental North America were identified. These modes link regional circulation and precipitation anomalies over East Asia and continental North America, via coupled atmosphere-ocean variations over the North Pacific. The first mode has a large zonally symmetrical component and appears to be associated with subtropical jetstream variability and the second mode with Rossby wave dispersion. Both modes possess strong sea surface temperature (SST) expressions in the North Pacific. Results show that the two teleconnection modes may have its origin in intrinsic modes of sea surface temperature variability in the extratropical oceans, which are forced in part by atmospheric variability and in part by air-sea interaction. The potential predictability of the ASM associated with SST variability in different ocean basins is explored using a new canonical ensemble correlation prediction scheme. It is found that SST anomalies in tropical Pacific, i.e., El Nino, is the most dominant forcing for the ASM, especially over the maritime continent and eastern Australia. SST anomalies in the India Ocean may trump the influence from El Nino in western Australia and western maritime continent. Both El Nino, and North Pacific SSTs contribute to monsoon precipitation anomalies over Japan, southern Korea, northern and central China. By optimizing SST variability signals from the world ocean basins using CEC, the overall predictability of ASM can be substantially improved.

The Global and Small-scale Magnetic Fields of Fully Convective, Rapidly Spinning M Dwarf Pair GJ65 A and B

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kochukhov, Oleg; Lavail, Alexis [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Uppsala University, Box 516, Uppsala SE-75120 (Sweden)

2017-01-20

The nearby M dwarf binary GJ65 AB, also known as BL Cet and UV Cet, is a unique benchmark for investigation of dynamo-driven activity of low-mass stars. Magnetic activity of GJ65 was repeatedly assessed by indirect means, such as studies of flares, photometric variability, X-ray, and radio emission. Here, we present a direct analysis of large-scale and local surface magnetic fields in both components. Interpreting high-resolution circular polarization spectra (sensitive to a large-scale field geometry) we uncovered a remarkable difference of the global stellar field topologies. Despite nearly identical masses and rotation rates, the secondary exhibits an axisymmetric, dipolar-like global field with an average strength of 1.3 kG while the primary has a much weaker, more complex, and non-axisymmetric 0.3 kG field. On the other hand, an analysis of the differential Zeeman intensification (sensitive to the total magnetic flux) shows the two stars having similar magnetic fluxes of 5.2 and 6.7 kG for GJ65 A and B, respectively, although there is evidence that the field strength distribution in GJ65 B is shifted toward a higher field strength compared to GJ65 A. Based on these complementary magnetic field diagnostic results, we suggest that the dissimilar radio and X-ray variability of GJ65 A and B is linked to their different global magnetic field topologies. However, this difference appears to be restricted to the upper atmospheric layers but does not encompass the bulk of the stars and has no influence on the fundamental stellar properties.

A General-Purpose Spatial Survey Design for Collaborative Science and Monitoring of Global Environmental Change: The Global Grid

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David M. Theobald

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Recent guidance on environmental modeling and global land-cover validation stresses the need for a probability-based design. Additionally, spatial balance has also been recommended as it ensures more efficient sampling, which is particularly relevant for understanding land use change. In this paper I describe a global sample design and database called the Global Grid (GG that has both of these statistical characteristics, as well as being flexible, multi-scale, and globally comprehensive. The GG is intended to facilitate collaborative science and monitoring of land changes among local, regional, and national groups of scientists and citizens, and it is provided in a variety of open source formats to promote collaborative and citizen science. Since the GG sample grid is provided at multiple scales and is globally comprehensive, it provides a universal, readily-available sample. It also supports uneven probability sample designs through filtering sample locations by user-defined strata. The GG is not appropriate for use at locations above ±85° because the shape and topological distortion of quadrants becomes extreme near the poles. Additionally, the file sizes of the GG datasets are very large at fine scale (resolution ~600 m × 600 m and require a 64-bit integer representation.

Dependency of high coastal water level and river discharge at the global scale

Science.gov (United States)

Ward, P.; Couasnon, A.; Haigh, I. D.; Muis, S.; Veldkamp, T.; Winsemius, H.; Wahl, T.

2017-12-01

It is widely recognized that floods cause huge socioeconomic impacts. From 1980-2013, global flood losses exceeded $1 trillion, with 220,000 fatalities. These impacts are particularly hard felt in low-lying densely populated deltas and estuaries, whose location at the coast-land interface makes them naturally prone to flooding. When river and coastal floods coincide, their impacts in these deltas and estuaries are often worse than when they occur in isolation. Such floods are examples of so-called `compound events'. In this contribution, we present the first global scale analysis of the statistical dependency of high coastal water levels (and the storm surge component alone) and river discharge. We show that there is statistical dependency between these components at more than half of the stations examined. We also show time-lags in the highest correlation between peak discharges and coastal water levels. Finally, we assess the probability of the simultaneous occurrence of design discharge and design coastal water levels, assuming both independence and statistical dependence. For those stations where we identified statistical dependency, the probability is between 1 and 5 times greater, when the dependence structure is accounted for. This information is essential for understanding the likelihood of compound flood events occurring at locations around the world as well as for accurate flood risk assessments and effective flood risk management. The research was carried out by analysing the statistical dependency between observed coastal water levels (and the storm surge component) from GESLA-2 and river discharge using gauged data from GRDC stations all around the world. The dependence structure was examined using copula functions.

Modeling the contributions of global air temperature, synoptic-scale phenomena and soil moisture to near-surface static energy variability using artificial neural networks

Science.gov (United States)

Pryor, Sara C.; Sullivan, Ryan C.; Schoof, Justin T.

2017-12-01

The static energy content of the atmosphere is increasing on a global scale, but exhibits important subglobal and subregional scales of variability and is a useful parameter for integrating the net effect of changes in the partitioning of energy at the surface and for improving understanding of the causes of so-called warming holes (i.e., locations with decreasing daily maximum air temperatures (T) or increasing trends of lower magnitude than the global mean). Further, measures of the static energy content (herein the equivalent potential temperature, θe) are more strongly linked to excess human mortality and morbidity than air temperature alone, and have great relevance in understanding causes of past heat-related excess mortality and making projections of possible future events that are likely to be associated with negative human health and economic consequences. New nonlinear statistical models for summertime daily maximum and minimum θe are developed and used to advance understanding of drivers of historical change and variability over the eastern USA. The predictor variables are an index of the daily global mean temperature, daily indices of the synoptic-scale meteorology derived from T and specific humidity (Q) at 850 and 500 hPa geopotential heights (Z), and spatiotemporally averaged soil moisture (text">SM). text">SM is particularly important in determining the magnitude of θe over regions that have previously been identified as exhibiting warming holes, confirming the key importance of text">SM in dictating the partitioning of net radiation into sensible and latent heat and dictating trends in near-surface T and θe. Consistent with our a priori expectations, models built using artificial neural networks (ANNs) out-perform linear models that do not permit interaction of the predictor variables (global T, synoptic-scale meteorological conditions and text">SM). This is particularly marked in regions with high variability in minimum and maximum θe, where

Value of river discharge data for global-scale hydrological modeling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Hunger

2008-05-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates the value of observed river discharge data for global-scale hydrological modeling of a number of flow characteristics that are e.g. required for assessing water resources, flood risk and habitat alteration of aquatic ecosystems. An improved version of the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model (WGHM was tuned against measured discharge using either the 724-station dataset (V1 against which former model versions were tuned or an extended dataset (V2 of 1235 stations. WGHM is tuned by adjusting one model parameter (γ that affects runoff generation from land areas in order to fit simulated and observed long-term average discharge at tuning stations. In basins where γ does not suffice to tune the model, two correction factors are applied successively: the areal correction factor corrects local runoff in a basin and the station correction factor adjusts discharge directly the gauge. Using station correction is unfavorable, as it makes discharge discontinuous at the gauge and inconsistent with runoff in the upstream basin. The study results are as follows. (1 Comparing V2 to V1, the global land area covered by tuning basins increases by 5% and the area where the model can be tuned by only adjusting γ increases by 8%. However, the area where a station correction factor (and not only an areal correction factor has to be applied more than doubles. (2 The value of additional discharge information for representing the spatial distribution of long-term average discharge (and thus renewable water resources with WGHM is high, particularly for river basins outside of the V1 tuning area and in regions where the refined dataset provides a significant subdivision of formerly extended tuning basins (average V2 basin size less than half the V1 basin size. If the additional discharge information were not used for tuning, simulated long-term average discharge would differ from the observed one by a factor of, on average, 1.8 in the formerly

Mixed multiscale finite element methods using approximate global information based on partial upscaling

KAUST Repository

Jiang, Lijian; Efendiev, Yalchin; Mishev, IIya

2009-01-01

The use of limited global information in multiscale simulations is needed when there is no scale separation. Previous approaches entail fine-scale simulations in the computation of the global information. The computation of the global information

A multicenter examination and strategic revisions of the Yale Global Tic Severity Scale.

Science.gov (United States)

McGuire, Joseph F; Piacentini, John; Storch, Eric A; Murphy, Tanya K; Ricketts, Emily J; Woods, Douglas W; Walkup, John W; Peterson, Alan L; Wilhelm, Sabine; Lewin, Adam B; McCracken, James T; Leckman, James F; Scahill, Lawrence

2018-05-08

To examine the internal consistency and distribution of the Yale Global Tic Severity Scale (YGTSS) scores to inform modification of the measure. This cross-sectional study included 617 participants with a tic disorder (516 children and 101 adults), who completed an age-appropriate diagnostic interview and the YGTSS to evaluate tic symptom severity. The distributions of scores on YGTSS dimensions were evaluated for normality and skewness. For dimensions that were skewed across motor and phonic tics, a modified Delphi consensus process was used to revise selected anchor points. Children and adults had similar clinical characteristics, including tic symptom severity. All participants were examined together. Strong internal consistency was identified for the YGTSS Motor Tic score (α = 0.80), YGTSS Phonic Tic score (α = 0.87), and YGTSS Total Tic score (α = 0.82). The YGTSS Total Tic and Impairment scores exhibited relatively normal distributions. Several subscales and individual item scales departed from a normal distribution. Higher scores were more often used on the Motor Tic Number, Frequency, and Intensity dimensions and the Phonic Tic Frequency dimension. By contrast, lower scores were more often used on Motor Tic Complexity and Interference, and Phonic Tic Number, Intensity, Complexity, and Interference. The YGTSS exhibits good internal consistency across children and adults. The parallel findings across Motor and Phonic Frequency, Complexity, and Interference dimensions prompted minor revisions to the anchor point description to promote use of the full range of scores in each dimension. Specific minor revisions to the YGTSS Phonic Tic Symptom Checklist were also proposed. © 2018 American Academy of Neurology.

Global MHD Modelling of the ISM - From large towards small scale turbulence

Science.gov (United States)

de Avillez, M.; Breitschwerdt, D.

2005-06-01

Dealing numerically with the turbulent nature and non-linearity of the physical processes involved in the ISM requires the use of sophisticated numerical schemes coupled to HD and MHD mathematical models. SNe are the main drivers of the interstellar turbulence by transferring kinetic energy into the system. This energy is dissipated by shocks (which is more efficient) and by molecular viscosity. We carried out adaptive mesh refinement simulations (with a finest resolution of 0.625 pc) of the turbulent ISM embedded in a magnetic field with mean field components of 2 and 3 μG. The time scale of our run was 400 Myr, sufficiently long to avoid memory effects of the initial setup, and to allow for a global dynamical equilibrium to be reached in case of a constant energy input rate. It is found that the longitudinal and transverse turbulent length scales have a time averaged (over a period of 50 Myr) ratio of 0.52-0.6, almost similar to the one expected for isotropic homogeneous turbulence. The mean characteristic size of the larger eddies is found to be ˜ 75 pc in both runs. In order to check the simulations against observations, we monitored the OVI and HI column densities within a superbubble created by the explosions of 19 SNe having masses and velocities of the stars that exploded in vicinity of the Sun generating the Local Bubble. The model reproduces the FUSE absorption measurements towards 25 white dwarfs of the OVI column density as function of distance and of N(HI). In particular for lines of sight with lengths smaller than 120 pc it is found that there is no correlation between N(OVI) and N(HI).

From Planetary Boundaries to national fair shares of the global safe operating space - How can the scales be bridged?

Science.gov (United States)

Häyhä, Tiina; Cornell, Sarah; Lucas, Paul; van Vuuren, Detlef; Hoff, Holger

2016-04-01

The planetary boundaries framework proposes precautionary quantitative global limits to the anthropogenic perturbation of crucial Earth system processes. In this way, it marks out a planetary 'safe operating space' for human activities. However, decisions regarding resource use and emissions are mostly made at much smaller scales, mostly by (sub-)national and regional governments, businesses, and other local actors. To operationalize the planetary boundaries, they need to be translated into and aligned with targets that are relevant at these smaller scales. In this paper, we develop a framework that addresses the three dimension of bridging across scales: biophysical, socio-economic and ethical, to provide a consistent universally applicable approach for translating the planetary boundaries into national level context-specific and fair shares of the safe operating space. We discuss our findings in the context of previous studies and their implications for future analyses and policymaking. In this way, we help link the planetary boundaries framework to widely- applied operational and policy concepts for more robust strong sustainability decision-making.

Characterization factors for terrestrial acidification at the global scale: a systematic analysis of spatial variability and uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Roy, Pierre-Olivier; Azevedo, Ligia B; Margni, Manuele; van Zelm, Rosalie; Deschênes, Louise; Huijbregts, Mark A J

2014-12-01

Characterization factors (CFs) are used in life cycle assessment (LCA) to quantify the potential impact per unit of emission. CFs are obtained from a characterization model which assess the environmental mechanisms along the cause-effect chain linking an emission to its potential damage on a given area of protection, such as loss in ecosystem quality. Up to now, CFs for acidifying emissions did not cover the global scale and were only representative of their characterization model geographical scope. Consequently, current LCA practices implicitly assume that all emissions from a global supply chain occur within the continent referring to the characterization method geographical scope. This paper provides worldwide 2°×2.5° spatially-explicit CFs, representing the change in relative loss of terrestrial vascular plant species due to an emission change of nitrogen oxides (NOx), ammonia (NH3) and sulfur dioxide (SO2). We found that spatial variability in the CFs is much larger compared to statistical uncertainty (six orders of magnitude vs. two orders of magnitude). Spatial variability is mainly caused by the atmospheric fate factor and soil sensitivity factor, while the ecological effect factor is the dominant contributor to the statistical uncertainty. The CFs provided in our study allow the worldwide spatially explicit evaluation of life cycle impacts related to acidifying emissions. This opens the door to evaluate regional life cycle emissions of different products in a global economy. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Tropospheric ozone and its precursors from the urban to the global scale from air quality to short-lived climate forcer

Science.gov (United States)

Monks, P. S.; Archibald, A. T.; Colette, A.; Cooper, O.; Coyle, M.; Derwent, R.; Fowler, D.; Granier, C.; Law, K. S.; Mills, G. E.; Stevenson, D. S.; Tarasova, O.; Thouret, V.; von Schneidemesser, E.; Sommariva, R.; Wild, O.; Williams, M. L.

2015-08-01

Ozone holds a certain fascination in atmospheric science. It is ubiquitous in the atmosphere, central to tropospheric oxidation chemistry, yet harmful to human and ecosystem health as well as being an important greenhouse gas. It is not emitted into the atmosphere but is a byproduct of the very oxidation chemistry it largely initiates. Much effort is focused on the reduction of surface levels of ozone owing to its health and vegetation impacts, but recent efforts to achieve reductions in exposure at a country scale have proved difficult to achieve owing to increases in background ozone at the zonal hemispheric scale. There is also a growing realisation that the role of ozone as a short-lived climate pollutant could be important in integrated air quality climate change mitigation. This review examines current understanding of the processes regulating tropospheric ozone at global to local scales from both measurements and models. It takes the view that knowledge across the scales is important for dealing with air quality and climate change in a synergistic manner. The review shows that there remain a number of clear challenges for ozone such as explaining surface trends, incorporating new chemical understanding, ozone-climate coupling, and a better assessment of impacts. There is a clear and present need to treat ozone across the range of scales, a transboundary issue, but with an emphasis on the hemispheric scales. New observational opportunities are offered both by satellites and small sensors that bridge the scales.

The case for a Supersite for real-time GNSS hazard monitoring on a global scale

Science.gov (United States)

Bar-Sever, Y. E.

2017-12-01

Real-time measurements from many hundreds of GNSS tracking sites around the world are publicly available today, and the amount of streaming data is steadily increasing as national agencies densify their local and global infrastructure for natural hazard monitoring and a variety of geodetic, cadastral, and other civil applications. Thousands of such sites can soon be expected on a global scale. It is a challenge to manage and make optimal use of this massive amount of real-time data. We advocate the creation of Supersite(s), in the parlance of the U.N. Global Earth Observation System of Systems (https://www.earthobservations.org/geoss.php), to generate high level real-time data products from the raw GNSS measurements from all available sources (many thousands of sites). These products include: • High rate, real-time positioning time series for assessing rapid crustal motion due to Earthquakes, volcanic activities, land slides, etc. • Co-seismic displacement to help resolve earthquake mechanism and moment magnitude • Real-time total electron content (TEC) fluctuations to augment Dart buoy in detecting and tracking tsunamis • Aggregation of the many disparate raw data dispensation servers (Casters)Recognizing that natural hazards transcend national boundaries in terms of direct and indirect (e.g., economical, security) impact, the benefits from centralized, authoritative processing of GNSS measurements is manifold: • Offers a one-stop shop to less developed nations and institutions for raw and high-level products, in support of research and applications • Promotes the installation of tracking sites and the contribution of data from nations without the ability to process the data • Reduce dependency on local responsible agencies impacted by a natural disaster • Reliable 24/7 operations, independent of voluntary, best effort contributions from good-willing scientific organizationsThe JPL GNSS Real-Time Earthquake and Tsunami (GREAT) Alert has been

Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections: a global-scale model comparison.

Science.gov (United States)

Prestele, Reinhard; Alexander, Peter; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Arneth, Almut; Calvin, Katherine; Doelman, Jonathan; Eitelberg, David A; Engström, Kerstin; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Jain, Atul K; Krisztin, Tamás; Kyle, Page; Meiyappan, Prasanth; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald D; Schaldach, Rüdiger; Schüngel, Jan; Stehfest, Elke; Tabeau, Andrzej; Van Meijl, Hans; Van Vliet, Jasper; Verburg, Peter H

2016-12-01

Model-based global projections of future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global-scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, model structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios, we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g., boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas originates from different input data applied in the models. Cropland, in contrast, is more consistent among the starting conditions, while variation in the projections gradually increases over time due to diverse scenario assumptions and different modeling approaches. Comparisons at the grid cell level indicate that disagreement is mainly related to LULC type definitions and the individual model allocation schemes. We conclude that improving the quality and consistency of observational data utilized in the modeling process and improving the allocation mechanisms of LULC change models remain important challenges. Current LULC representation in environmental assessments might miss the uncertainty arising from the diversity of LULC change modeling approaches, and many studies ignore the uncertainty in LULC projections in assessments of LULC

Quantifying invertebrate resistance to floods: a global-scale meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

McMullen, Laura E; Lytle, David A

2012-12-01

Floods are a key component of the ecology and management of riverine ecosystems around the globe, but it is not clear whether floods have predictable effects on organisms that can allow us to generalize across regions and continents. To address this, we conducted a global-scale meta-analysis to investigate effects of natural and managed floods on invertebrate resistance, the ability of invertebrates to survive flood events. We considered 994 studies for inclusion in the analysis, and after evaluation based on a priori criteria, narrowed our analysis to 41 studies spanning six of the seven continents. We used the natural-log-ratio of invertebrate abundance before and within 10 days after flood events because this measure of effect size can be directly converted to estimates of percent survival. We conducted categorical and continuous analyses that examined the contribution of environmental and study design variables to effect size heterogeneity, and examined differences in effect size among taxonomic groups. We found that invertebrate abundance was lowered by at least one-half after flood events. While natural vs. managed floods were similar in their effect, effect size differed among habitat and substrate types, with pools, sand, and boulders experiencing the strongest effect. Although sample sizes were not sufficient to examine all taxonomic groups, floods had a significant, negative effect on densities of Coleoptera, Eumalacostraca, Annelida, Ephemeroptera, Diptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera. Results from this study provide guidance for river flow regime prescriptions that will be applicable across continents and climate types, as well as baseline expectations for future empirical studies of freshwater disturbance.

Teleconnections from Tropics to Northern Extratropics through a Southerly Conveyor

OpenAIRE

Wang, Zhuo; Chang, C.-P.; Wang, Bin; Jin, Fei-fei

2005-01-01

Rossby wave propagation theory predicts that Rossby waves in a tropical easterly flow cannot escape from the Tropics to the extratropics. Here the authors show that a southerly flow component in the basic state (a southerly conveyor) may transfer a Rossby wave source northward; thus, a forcing embedded in the deep tropical easterlies may excite a Rossby wave response in the extratropical westerlies. It is shown that the southerly conveyor determines the location of the effective R...

Biogeosciences connecting earth`s spheres from microscopic to global scales

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Bahn, M.; Fennel, K.; Kesselmeier, J.; Naqvi, S.W.A.; Neftel, A.

biological, physical and chemical processes across a range of scales. Bio- chemically mediated reactions and transports across intracellular membranes occur at microscopic scales, yet they profoundly influence the composition of Earth’s atmosphere... potential is almost 300 times as high An algal bloom on Lake Erie was observed from space in 2011 and is thought to result from runoff of agricultural fertilizers. T L 44 A Voyage Through Scales A Voyage Through Scales 45 BIoGeoScIenceS connecTInG ear...

Scaled biotic disruption during early Eocene global warming events

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gibbs, S.J.; Bown, P.R.; Murphy, B.H.; Sluijs, A.; Edgar, K.M.; Pälike, H.; Bolton, C.T.; Zachos, J.C.

2012-01-01

Late Paleocene and early Eocene hyperthermals are transient warming events associated with massive perturbations of the global carbon cycle, and are considered partial analogues for current anthropogenic climate change. Because the magnitude of carbon release varied between the events, they are

Social Class and Education: Global Perspectives

Science.gov (United States)

Weis, Lois, Ed.; Dolby, Nadine, Ed.

2012-01-01

"Social Class and Education: Global Perspectives" is the first empirically grounded volume to explore the intersections of class, social structure, opportunity, and education on a truly global scale. Fifteen essays from contributors representing the US, Europe, China, Latin America and other regions offer an unparralleled examination of…

Evaluation of biochar powder on oxygen supply efficiency and global warming potential during mainstream large-scale aerobic composting.

Science.gov (United States)

He, Xueqin; Chen, Longjian; Han, Lujia; Liu, Ning; Cui, Ruxiu; Yin, Hongjie; Huang, Guangqun

2017-12-01

This study investigated the effects of biochar powder on oxygen supply efficiency and global warming potential (GWP) in the large-scale aerobic composting pattern which includes cyclical forced-turning with aeration at the bottom of composting tanks in China. A 55-day large-scale aerobic composting experiment was conducted in two different groups without and with 10% biochar powder addition (by weight). The results show that biochar powder improves the holding ability of oxygen, and the duration time (O 2 >5%) is around 80%. The composting process with above pattern significantly reduce CH 4 and N 2 O emissions compared to the static or turning-only styles. Considering the average GWP of the BC group was 19.82% lower than that of the CK group, it suggests that rational addition of biochar powder has the potential to reduce the energy consumption of turning, improve effectiveness of the oxygen supply, and reduce comprehensive greenhouse effects. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Objective structured assessment of nontechnical skills: Reliability of a global rating scale for the in-training assessment in the operating room.

Science.gov (United States)

Dedy, Nicolas J; Szasz, Peter; Louridas, Marisa; Bonrath, Esther M; Husslein, Heinrich; Grantcharov, Teodor P

2015-06-01

Nontechnical skills are critical for patient safety in the operating room (OR). As a result, regulatory bodies for accreditation and certification have mandated the integration of these competencies into postgraduate education. A generally accepted approach to the in-training assessment of nontechnical skills, however, is lacking. The goal of the present study was to develop an evidence-based and reliable tool for the in-training assessment of residents' nontechnical performance in the OR. The Objective Structured Assessment of Nontechnical Skills tool was designed as a 5-point global rating scale with descriptive anchors for each item, based on existing evidence-based frameworks of nontechnical skills, as well as resident training requirements. The tool was piloted on scripted videos and refined in an iterative process. The final version was used to rate residents' performance in recorded OR crisis simulations and during live observations in the OR. A total of 37 simulations and 10 live procedures were rated. Interrater agreement was good for total mean scores, both in simulation and in the real OR, with intraclass correlation coefficients >0.90 in all settings for average and single measures. Internal consistency of the scale was high (Cronbach's alpha = 0.80). The Objective Structured Assessment of Nontechnical Skills global rating scale was developed as an evidence-based tool for the in-training assessment of residents' nontechnical performance in the OR. Unique descriptive anchors allow for a criterion-referenced assessment of performance. Good reliability was demonstrated in different settings, supporting applications in research and education. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Micron R&D: Global Scope and Nano-Scale in N-Dimensions

Science.gov (United States)

Durcan, Mark

2006-03-01

The Globalization of world markets and the globally dispersed manufacturing that supports them, drives complexity in managing today's leading edge R&D organizations beyond that historically experienced. The dimensions involve not only location, but time, economics, government relations, complex supply and customer chains, and Intellectual Property strategy. Each must be contemplated and optimized in light of the nature of worldwide 24 hour a day competition.

The Satisfaction With Life Scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Diener, E; Emmons, R A; Larsen, R J; Griffin, S

1985-02-01

This article reports the development and validation of a scale to measure global life satisfaction, the Satisfaction With Life Scale (SWLS). Among the various components of subjective well-being, the SWLS is narrowly focused to assess global life satisfaction and does not tap related constructs such as positive affect or loneliness. The SWLS is shown to have favorable psychometric properties, including high internal consistency and high temporal reliability. Scores on the SWLS correlate moderately to highly with other measures of subjective well-being, and correlate predictably with specific personality characteristics. It is noted that the SWLS is Suited for use with different age groups, and other potential uses of the scale are discussed.

Global trophic ecology of yellowfin, bigeye, and albacore tunas: Understanding predation on micronekton communities at ocean-basin scales

Science.gov (United States)

Duffy, Leanne M.; Kuhnert, Petra M.; Pethybridge, Heidi R.; Young, Jock W.; Olson, Robert J.; Logan, John M.; Goñi, Nicolas; Romanov, Evgeny; Allain, Valerie; Staudinger, Michelle D.; Abecassis, Melanie; Choy, C. Anela; Hobday, Alistair J.; Simier, Monique; Galván-Magaña, Felipe; Potier, Michel; Ménard, Frederic

2017-06-01

Predator-prey interactions for three commercially valuable tuna species: yellowfin (Thunnus albacares), bigeye (T. obesus), and albacore (T. alalunga), collected over a 40-year period from the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans, were used to quantitatively assess broad, macro-scale trophic patterns in pelagic ecosystems. Analysis of over 14,000 tuna stomachs, using a modified classification tree approach, revealed for the first time the global expanse of pelagic predatory fish diet and global patterns of micronekton diversity. Ommastrephid squids were consistently one of the top prey groups by weight across all tuna species and in most ocean bodies. Interspecific differences in prey were apparent, with epipelagic scombrid and mesopelagic paralepidid fishes globally important for yellowfin and bigeye tunas, respectively, while vertically-migrating euphausiid crustaceans were important for albacore tuna in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Diet diversity showed global and regional patterns among tuna species. In the central and western Pacific Ocean, characterized by low productivity, a high diversity of micronekton prey was detected while low prey diversity was evident in highly productive coastal waters where upwelling occurs. Spatial patterns of diet diversity were most variable in yellowfin and bigeye tunas while a latitudinal diversity gradient was observed with lower diversity in temperate regions for albacore tuna. Sea-surface temperature was a reasonable predictor of the diets of yellowfin and bigeye tunas, whereas chlorophyll-a was the best environmental predictor of albacore diet. These results suggest that the ongoing expansion of warmer, less productive waters in the world's oceans may alter foraging opportunities for tunas due to regional changes in prey abundances and compositions.

From global scaling to the dynamics of individual cities

Science.gov (United States)

Depersin, Jules; Barthelemy, Marc

2018-03-01

Scaling has been proposed as a powerful tool to analyze the properties of complex systems and in particular for cities where it describes how various properties change with population. The empirical study of scaling on a wide range of urban datasets displays apparent nonlinear behaviors whose statistical validity and meaning were recently the focus of many debates. We discuss here another aspect, which is the implication of such scaling forms on individual cities and how they can be used for predicting the behavior of a city when its population changes. We illustrate this discussion in the case of delay due to traffic congestion with a dataset of 101 US cities in the years 1982–2014. We show that the scaling form obtained by agglomerating all of the available data for different cities and for different years does display a nonlinear behavior, but which appears to be unrelated to the dynamics of individual cities when their population grows. In other words, the congestion-induced delay in a given city does not depend on its population only, but also on its previous history. This strong path dependency prohibits the existence of a simple scaling form valid for all cities and shows that we cannot always agglomerate the data for many different systems. More generally, these results also challenge the use of transversal data for understanding longitudinal series for cities.

Local and global dynamical effects of dark energy

Science.gov (United States)

Chernin, A. D.

Local expansion flows of galaxies were discovered by Lemaitre and Hubble in 1927-29 at distances of less than 25-30 Mpc. The global expansion of the Universe as a whole was predicted theoretically by Friedmann in 1922-24 and discovered in the 1990s in observations at truly cosmological distances of more than 1 000 Mpc. On all these spatial scales, the flows follow a (nearly) linear velocity-distance relation, known now as Hubble's law. This similarity of local and global phenomena is due to the universal dark energy antigravity which dominates the cosmic dynamics on both local and global spatial scales.

Field Strain Measurement on the Fiber Scale in Carbon Fiber Reinforced Polymers Using Global Finite-Element Based Digital Image Correlation

KAUST Repository

Tao, Ran

2015-05-01

Laminated composites are materials with complex architecture made of continuous fibers embedded within a polymeric resin. The properties of the raw materials can vary from one point to another due to different local processing conditions or complex geometrical features for example. A first step towards the identification of these spatially varying material parameters is to image with precision the displacement fields in this complex microstructure when subjected to mechanical loading. This thesis is aimed to accurately measure the displacement and strain fields at the fiber-matrix scale in a cross-ply composite. First, the theories of both local subset-based digital image correlation (DIC) and global finite-element based DIC are outlined. Second, in-situ secondary electron tensile images obtained by scanning electron microscopy (SEM) are post-processed by both DIC techniques. Finally, it is shown that when global DIC is applied with a conformal mesh, it can capture more accurately sharp local variations in the strain fields as it takes into account the underlying microstructure. In comparison to subset-based local DIC, finite-element based global DIC is better suited for capturing gradients across the fiber-matrix interfaces.

Response of temperature and density profiles to heat deposition profile and its impact on global scaling in LHD

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamada, H.

2002-01-01

Significant density dependence of the energy confinement time as described in the ISS95 scaling has been demonstrated in the extended parameter regimes in LHD. However, recent experiments have indicated that this density dependence is lost at a certain density under specific conditions. This paper discusses the cause of this saturation and related characteristics of anomalous transport. The saturation of the energy confinement time is observed in the density ramp-up phase of NBI heated plasmas. In contrast to the global energy confinement time, the local heat conduction coefficient still indicates the temperature dependence which is a companion to the density dependence of the energy confinement time. The apparent contradiction between the global confinement and the local transport can be attributed to the change of the heat deposition profile. Through this study, the response of temperature and density profiles to the heat deposition profile is highlighted, which is contrasted to the concept of stiffness or profile consistency observed in tokamaks. The major anomalous transport models based on ITG/TEM and interchange/ballooning modes are assessed. (author)

Scale-adaptive Local Patches for Robust Visual Object Tracking

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kang Sun

2014-04-01

Full Text Available This paper discusses the problem of robustly tracking objects which undergo rapid and dramatic scale changes. To remove the weakness of global appearance models, we present a novel scheme that combines object’s global and local appearance features. The local feature is a set of local patches that geometrically constrain the changes in the target’s appearance. In order to adapt to the object’s geometric deformation, the local patches could be removed and added online. The addition of these patches is constrained by the global features such as color, texture and motion. The global visual features are updated via the stable local patches during tracking. To deal with scale changes, we adapt the scale of patches in addition to adapting the object bound box. We evaluate our method by comparing it to several state-of-the-art trackers on publicly available datasets. The experimental results on challenging sequences confirm that, by using this scale-adaptive local patches and global properties, our tracker outperforms the related trackers in many cases by having smaller failure rate as well as better accuracy.

Probabilistic global maps of the CO2 column at daily and monthly scales from sparse satellite measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Chevallier, Frédéric; Broquet, Grégoire; Pierangelo, Clémence; Crisp, David

2017-07-01

The column-average dry air-mole fraction of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (XCO2) is measured by scattered satellite measurements like those from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2). We show that global continuous maps of XCO2 (corresponding to level 3 of the satellite data) at daily or coarser temporal resolution can be inferred from these data with a Kalman filter built on a model of persistence. Our application of this approach on 2 years of OCO-2 retrievals indicates that the filter provides better information than a climatology of XCO2 at both daily and monthly scales. Provided that the assigned observation uncertainty statistics are tuned in each grid cell of the XCO2 maps from an objective method (based on consistency diagnostics), the errors predicted by the filter at daily and monthly scales represent the true error statistics reasonably well, except for a bias in the high latitudes of the winter hemisphere and a lack of resolution (i.e., a too small discrimination skill) of the predicted error standard deviations. Due to the sparse satellite sampling, the broad-scale patterns of XCO2 described by the filter seem to lag behind the real signals by a few weeks. Finally, the filter offers interesting insights into the quality of the retrievals, both in terms of random and systematic errors.

Downscaling the Impacts of Large-Scale LUCC on Surface Temperature along with IPCC RCPs: A Global Perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiangzheng Deng