WorldWideScience

Sample records for global risk

  1. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  2. [Global risk management].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sghaier, W; Hergon, E; Desroches, A

    2015-08-01

    Risk management is a fundamental component of any successful company, whether it is in economic, societal or environmental aspect. Risk management is an especially important activity for companies that optimal security challenge of products and services is great. This is the case especially for the health sector institutions. Risk management is therefore a decision support tool and a means to ensure the sustainability of an organization. In this context, what methods and approaches implemented to manage the risks? Through this state of the art, we are interested in the concept of risk and risk management processes. Then we focus on the different methods of risk management and the criteria for choosing among these methods. Finally we highlight the need to supplement these methods by a systemic and global approach including through risk assessment by the audits. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  3. Globalization and Risk Sharing

    OpenAIRE

    Jaume Ventura; Fernando A. Broner

    2006-01-01

    We study the effects of globalization on risk sharing and welfare. Like the previous literature, we assume that governments cannot commit to enforce the repayment of debts owed by their citizens. Unlike the previous literature, we assume that governments cannot discriminate between domestic and foreign creditors when enforcing debt payments. This creates novel interactions between domestic and international trade in assets. (i) Increases in domestic trade raise the benefits of enforcement and...

  4. The Global Age NGIOA @ Risk

    CERN Document Server

    Pandya, Jayshree

    2012-01-01

    Dr. Jayshree Pandya, founder of Risk Group LLC, is ahead of the curve in addressing the changing global fundamentals of the emerging Global Age.   The Global Age, and its changing global fundamentals has brought complex, chaotic, and turbulent times for every nation—where failures on all levels have become self-evident, repetitive, destructive, and potentially hopeless in nature and uncertainty. Nations are caught off guard.   From what is visible worldwide today, the promise of progress and prosperity for all nations does not seem to have materialized in this Global Age. Instead of progress and prosperity, we see crisis and catastrophe  overpowering and overwhelming the capability of most nations to meet their promise of progress and prosperity. Nations are in crisis. This introductory book addresses the global shifts and the changing global fundamentals of the Global Age, to lay out a much needed foundation of an integrated NGIOA risk governance framework for the near future. This book will make a conv...

  5. Global risks from energy consumption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    von Hippel, F.

    1983-01-01

    A discussion of some of the global risks associated with current and frequently proposed future levels of consumption of energy from oil, coal, fission, fusion, and renewable sources points out the the dangers are serious and relatively near term. These include world war over Persian Gulf oil, climate change due to the buildup of atmospheric carbon dioxide, the accelerated proliferation of nuclear weapons, and competition between food and energy for land and water. The author urges placing a greater emphasis on how we use energy and how to reduce energy waste. At the levels of consumption which economically justified levels of energy efficiency could bring about, enough flexibility could develop in our choice of a future energy-supply mix to dramatically reduce the associated global risks. 47 references, 3 figures

  6. Global Drought Total Economic Loss Risk Deciles

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Drought Total Economic Loss Risk Deciles is a 2.5 minute grid of global drought total economic loss risks. A process of spatially allocating Gross Domestic...

  7. Global Volcano Mortality Risks and Distribution

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Volcano Mortality Risks and Distribution is a 2.5 minute grid representing global volcano mortality risks. The data set was constructed using historical...

  8. Global Landslide Total Economic Loss Risk Deciles

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Landslide Total Economic Loss Risk Deciles is a 2.5 minute grid of global landslide total economic loss risks. A process of spatially allocating Gross...

  9. Global Multihazard Mortality Risks and Distribution

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Multihazard Mortality Risks and Distribution is a 2.5 minute grid identifying and characterizing the nature of multihazard risk at the global scale. For this...

  10. Global Drought Mortality Risks and Distribution

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Drought Mortality Risks and Distribution is a 2.5 minute grid of global drought mortality risks. Gridded Population of the World, Version 3 (GPWv3) data...

  11. GLOBAL RISKS AND INSTRUMENTS OF ITS MINIMIZATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Havryliuk

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available It is argued that economic globalization leads to the formation of macro-economic, political and other risks that are able to grow into global risks affecting, without exception, all national economies, creating a serious threat to national economic security. The emphasis is on the negative elements of a set of global risks, their development and minimize the possibility of using a number of tools. Ensuring firmness of the state to external risks demands continuous monitoring and forecasting of world processes and usage of economic instruments of rapid response for prevention of negative consequences. The essence of the category of "risk" is revealed and deepened. The global risks that can not affect the economic security of Ukraine is disclosed. It is shown that the emergence of these global risks has negative impact on the economic security of Ukraine.

  12. Globalization – Chances or Risks

    OpenAIRE

    MĂDĂLINA ANTOANETA RĂDOI; ALEXANDRU OLTEANU

    2015-01-01

    There are for and against arguments as regards the process of globalization. But what is globalization: a concept, a reality or a state as such? We can consider that globalization reflects the natural continuity of a process that appeared a long time ago and that has evolved ever since or a new phenomenon that was generated by the speed with which new technology and information flow. Milton Friedman, a fervent supporter of globalization, gives an answer to the question “what is globalization”...

  13. Globalization – Chances or Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MĂDĂLINA ANTOANETA RĂDOI

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available There are for and against arguments as regards the process of globalization. But what is globalization: a concept, a reality or a state as such? We can consider that globalization reflects the natural continuity of a process that appeared a long time ago and that has evolved ever since or a new phenomenon that was generated by the speed with which new technology and information flow. Milton Friedman, a fervent supporter of globalization, gives an answer to the question “what is globalization”; according to him, “globalization is not a simple tendency or phantasy but rather an international system. It is the new system that has replaced the Cold War system and that, like the former one, has its own laws and logic, being able to directly or indirectly influence today’s politics, the environment, geopolitics and the economy of every country in the world.” (Friedman, 2000. Globalization represents: the unlimited ascend of technology, the free flow of information, the annihilation of territorial limits, the uniformity of economy, the free flow of capital, the mobility of the person, as well as a political form of organization that aims at a future global government.

  14. Integrated risk analysis of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shlyakhter, Alexander; Wilson, Richard; Valverde A, L.J. Jr.

    1995-01-01

    This paper discusses several factors that should be considered in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. We begin by describing how the problem of global climate change can be subdivided into largely independent parts that can be linked together in an analytically tractable fashion. Uncertainty plays a central role in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. Accordingly, we consider various aspects of uncertainty as they relate to the climate change problem. We also consider the impacts of these uncertainties on various risk management issues, such as sequential decision strategies, value of information, and problems of interregional and intergenerational equity. (author)

  15. Global Drought Proportional Economic Loss Risk Deciles

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Drought Proportional Economic Loss Risk Deciles is a 2.5 minute grid of drought hazard economic loss as proportions of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per...

  16. Global Risk of Nuclear Terrorism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emily Diez

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The emergence of nuclear terrorism, a threat that President Obama called "the gravest danger we face," has signaled a paradigm shift in international security. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, sensitive nuclear technologies and materials have become increasingly available. Globalization and the inadequate enforcement of treaties and export controls have allowed the proliferation of nuclear weapons materials. Today, international terrorist organizations seek to employ weapons of mass destruction (WMD as a means to influence national policies around the world. AlQaida spokesman Suleiman Abu Gheith declared that in order to balance the injustices that have been inflicted on the Muslim population worldwide, al-Qaida's new objective is "to kill 4 million Americans–2 million of them children." As political scientist Graham Allison notes, this could be achieved with either 1,334 attacks similar in magnitude to those of 9/11, or one nuclear bomb.Building a nuclear program is an arduous task that requires tacit knowledge, the recruitment of nuclear scientists, engineers, and machinists, and the resources and time to obtain nuclear materials and components. While it is unlikely that terrorist organizations have the capacity to develop full-fledged programs in the near term, terrorist development and acquisition of nuclear weapons remains a long-term threat that requires international action.

  17. Global drivers of future river flood risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winsemius, Hessel C.; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; van Beek, Ludovicus P. H.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.; Bouwman, Arno; Jongman, Brenden; Kwadijk, Jaap C. J.; Ligtvoet, Willem; Lucas, Paul L.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Ward, Philip J.

    2016-04-01

    Understanding global future river flood risk is a prerequisite for the quantification of climate change impacts and planning effective adaptation strategies. Existing global flood risk projections fail to integrate the combined dynamics of expected socio-economic development and climate change. We present the first global future river flood risk projections that separate the impacts of climate change and socio-economic development. The projections are based on an ensemble of climate model outputs, socio-economic scenarios, and a state-of-the-art hydrologic river flood model combined with socio-economic impact models. Globally, absolute damage may increase by up to a factor of 20 by the end of the century without action. Countries in Southeast Asia face a severe increase in flood risk. Although climate change contributes significantly to the increase in risk in Southeast Asia, we show that it is dwarfed by the effect of socio-economic growth, even after normalization for gross domestic product (GDP) growth. African countries face a strong increase in risk mainly due to socio-economic change. However, when normalized to GDP, climate change becomes by far the strongest driver. Both high- and low-income countries may benefit greatly from investing in adaptation measures, for which our analysis provides a basis.

  18. Transparent Global Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Pinho, Rui; Crowley, Helen

    2013-04-01

    Vulnerability to earthquakes is increasing, yet advanced reliable risk assessment tools and data are inaccessible to most, despite being a critical basis for managing risk. Also, there are few, if any, global standards that allow us to compare risk between various locations. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange, and leverages the knowledge of leading experts for the benefit of society. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe is key to assessing risk more effectively. Through global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are collaboratively developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. Guided by the needs and experiences of governments, companies and citizens at large, they work in continuous interaction with the wider community. A continuously expanding public-private partnership constitutes the GEM Foundation, which drives the collaborative GEM effort. An integrated and holistic approach to risk is key to GEM's risk assessment platform, OpenQuake, that integrates all above-mentioned contributions and will become available towards the end of 2014. Stakeholders worldwide will be able to calculate, visualise and investigate earthquake risk, capture new data and to share their findings for joint learning. Homogenized information on hazard can be combined with data on exposure (buildings, population) and data on their vulnerability, for loss assessment around the globe. Furthermore, for a true integrated view of seismic risk, users can add social vulnerability and resilience indices to maps and estimate the costs and benefits

  19. Can we (actually) assess global risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

    2013-04-01

    The evaluation of the dynamic interactions of the different components of global risk (e.g. hazard, exposure, vulnerability or resilience) is one of the main challenges in risk assessment and management. In state-of-the-art approaches for the analysis of risk, natural and socio-economic systems are typically treated separately by using different methods. In flood risk studies, for instance, physical scientists typically focus on the study of the probability of flooding (i.e. hazard), while social scientists mainly examine the exposure, vulnerability or resilience to flooding. However, these different components are deeply interconnected. Changes in flood hazard might trigger changes in vulnerability, and vice versa. A typical example of these interactions is the so-called "levee effect", whereby heightening levees to reduce the probability of flooding often leads to increase the potential adverse consequences of flooding as people often perceive that flood risk was completely eliminated once the levee was raised. These interconnections between the different components of risk remain largely unexplored and poorly understood. This lack of knowledge is of serious concern as it limits our ability to plan appropriate risk prevention measures. To design flood control structures, for example, state-of-the-art models can indeed provide quantitative assessments of the corresponding risk reduction associated to the lower probability of flooding. Nevertheless, current methods cannot estimate how, and to what extent, such a reduction might trigger a future increase of the potential adverse consequences of flooding (the aforementioned "levee effect"). Neither can they evaluate how the latter might (in turn) lead to the requirement of additional flood control structures. Thus, while many progresses have been made in the static assessment of flood risk, more inter-disciplinary research is required for the development of methods for dynamic risk assessment, which is very much

  20. Demographic controls of future global fire risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knorr, W.; Arneth, A.; Jiang, L.

    2016-08-01

    Wildfires are an important component of terrestrial ecosystem ecology but also a major natural hazard to societies, and their frequency and spatial distribution must be better understood. At a given location, risk from wildfire is associated with the annual fraction of burned area, which is expected to increase in response to climate warming. Until recently, however, only a few global studies of future fire have considered the effects of other important global environmental change factors such as atmospheric CO2 levels and human activities, and how these influence fires in different regions. Here, we contrast the impact of climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 content on burned area with that of demographic dynamics, using ensembles of climate simulations combined with historical and projected population changes under different socio-economic development pathways for 1901-2100. Historically, humans notably suppressed wildfires. For future scenarios, global burned area will continue to decline under a moderate emissions scenario, except for low population growth and fast urbanization, but start to increase again from around mid-century under high greenhouse gas emissions. Contrary to common perception, we find that human exposure to wildfires increases in the future mainly owing to projected population growth in areas with frequent wildfires, rather than by a general increase in burned area.

  1. Changing Global Risk Landscape - Challenges for Risk Management (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenzel, F.

    2009-12-01

    The exponentially growing losses related to natural disasters on a global scale reflect a changing risk landscape that is characterized by the influence of climate change and a growing population, particularly in urban agglomerations and coastal zones. In consequence of these trends we witness (a) new hazards such as landslides due to dwindling permafrost, new patterns of strong precipitation and related floods, potential for tropical cyclones in the Mediterranean, sea level rise and others; (b) new risks related to large numbers of people in very dense urban areas, and risks related to the vulnerability of infrastructure such as energy supply, water supply, transportation, communication, etc. (c) extreme events with unprecedented size and implications. An appropriate answer to these challenges goes beyond classical views of risk assessment and protection. It must include an understanding of risk as changing with time so that risk assessment needs to be supplemented by risk monitoring. It requires decision making under high uncertainty. The risks (i.e. potentials for future losses) of extreme events are not only high but also very difficult to quantify, as they are characterized by high levels of uncertainty. Uncertainties relate to frequency, time of occurrence, strength and impact of extreme events but also to the coping capacities of society in response to them. The characterization, quantification, reduction in the extent possible of the uncertainties is an inherent topic of extreme event research. However, they will not disappear, so a rational approach to extreme events must include more than reducing uncertainties. It requires us to assess and rate the irreducible uncertainties, to evaluate options for mitigation under large uncertainties, and their communication to societal sectors. Thus scientist need to develop methodologies that aim at a rational approach to extreme events associated with high levels of uncertainty.

  2. A framework for global river flood risk assessments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Winsemius, H.C.; van Beek, L.P.H.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/14749799X; Jongman, B.; Ward, P.J.; Bouwman, A.

    2013-01-01

    There is an increasing need for strategic global assessments of flood risks in current and future conditions. In this paper, we propose a framework for global flood risk assessment for river floods, which can be applied in current conditions, as well as in future conditions due to climate and

  3. Global prevalence and major risk factors of diabetic retinopathy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yau, Joanne W Y; Rogers, Sophie L; Kawasaki, Ryo

    2012-01-01

    To examine the global prevalence and major risk factors for diabetic retinopathy (DR) and vision-threatening diabetic retinopathy (VTDR) among people with diabetes.......To examine the global prevalence and major risk factors for diabetic retinopathy (DR) and vision-threatening diabetic retinopathy (VTDR) among people with diabetes....

  4. The evolution of global disaster risk assessments: from hazard to global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peduzzi, Pascal

    2013-04-01

    The perception of disaster risk as a dynamic process interlinked with global change is a fairly recent concept. It gradually emerged as an evolution from new scientific theories, currents of thinking and lessons learned from large disasters since the 1970s. The interest was further heighten, in the mid-1980s, by the Chernobyl nuclear accident and the discovery of the ozone layer hole, both bringing awareness that dangerous hazards can generate global impacts. The creation of the UN International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR) and the publication of the first IPCC report in 1990 reinforced the interest for global risk assessment. First global risk models including hazard, exposure and vulnerability components were available since mid-2000s. Since then increased computation power and more refined datasets resolution, led to more numerous and sophisticated global risk models. This article presents a recent history of global disaster risk models, the current status of researches for the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR 2013) and future challenges and limitations for the development of next generation global disaster risk models.

  5. Public policy and risk financing strategies for global catastrophe risk management - the role of global risk initiatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    McSharry, Patrick; Mitchell, Andrew; Anderson, Rebecca

    2010-05-01

    Decision-makers in both public and private organisations depend on accurate data and scientific understanding to adequately address climate change and the impact of extreme events. The financial impacts of catastrophes on populations and infrastructure can be offset through effective risk transfer mechanisms, structured to reflect the specific perils and levels of exposure to be covered. Optimal strategies depend on the likely socio-econonomic impact, the institutional framework, the overall objectives of the covers placed and the level of both the frequency and severity of loss potential expected. The diversity of approaches across different countries has been documented by the Spanish "Consorcio de Compensación de Seguros". We discuss why international public/private partnerships are necessary for addressing the risk of natural catastrophes. International initiatives such as the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) and the World Forum of Catastrophe Programmes (WFCP) can provide effective guidelines for constructing natural catastrophe schemes. The World Bank has been instrumental in the creation of many of the existing schemes such as the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool, the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility and the Mongolian Index-Based Livestock Insurance Program. We review existing schemes and report on best practice in relation to providing protection against natural catastrophe perils. The suitability of catastrophe modelling approaches to support schemes across the world are discussed and we identify opportunities to improve risk assessment for such schemes through transparent frameworks for quantifying, pricing, sharing and financing catastrophe risk on a local and global basis.

  6. On the governance of global and catastrophic risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Faber, Michael Havbro

    2011-01-01

    The focus of the present paper regards the identification and treatment of critical issues in the process of societal decision making concerning management of global and catastrophic risks. Taking basis in recent works by the author, the paper in particular addresses: 1) Which are the most relevant...... hazards in a holistic global perspective and how may these be categorised in view of strategies for their treatment?; 2) How might robust societal decisions on risk management subject to large uncertainties be formally supported?; 3) How may available economic resources be prioritised for the purpose...... of sustainable and global life safety and health improvements? Finally, new results and perspectives are presented on the issue of allocation of resources for the purpose of improving global public health and a discussion on global risk governance concludes the paper....

  7. The credibility challenge for global fluvial flood risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trigg, M.A.; Birch, C.E.; Neal, J.C.; Bates, P.D.; Smith, A.; Sampson, C.C.; Yamazaki, D.; Hirabayashi, Y.; Pappenberger, F.; Dutra, E.; Ward, P.J.; Winsemius, H.C.; Salamon, P.; Dottori, F.; Rudari, R.; Kappes, M.S.; Simpson, A.L.; Hadzilacos, G.; Fewtrell, T.J.

    2016-01-01

    Quantifying flood hazard is an essential component of resilience planning, emergency response, and mitigation, including insurance. Traditionally undertaken at catchment and national scales, recently, efforts have intensified to estimate flood risk globally to better allow consistent and equitable

  8. Usefulness and limitations of global flood risk models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Philip; Jongman, Brenden; Salamon, Peter; Simpson, Alanna; Bates, Paul; De Groeve, Tom; Muis, Sanne; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; Rudari, Roberto; Mark, Trigg; Winsemius, Hessel

    2016-04-01

    Global flood risk models are now a reality. Initially, their development was driven by a demand from users for first-order global assessments to identify risk hotspots. Relentless upward trends in flood damage over the last decade have enhanced interest in such assessments. The adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage Associated with Climate Change Impacts have made these efforts even more essential. As a result, global flood risk models are being used more and more in practice, by an increasingly large number of practitioners and decision-makers. However, they clearly have their limits compared to local models. To address these issues, a team of scientists and practitioners recently came together at the Global Flood Partnership meeting to critically assess the question 'What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?'. The results of this dialogue (Ward et al., 2013) will be presented, opening a discussion on similar broader initiatives at the science-policy interface in other natural hazards. In this contribution, examples are provided of successful applications of global flood risk models in practice (for example together with the World Bank, Red Cross, and UNISDR), and limitations and gaps between user 'wish-lists' and model capabilities are discussed. Finally, a research agenda is presented for addressing these limitations and reducing the gaps. Ward et al., 2015. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2742

  9. Foreign exchange risk in terms of global financial crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michał Buszko

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Fx risk is one of the most important types of risk of financial activity. In practice, this risk comprises several risk aspects related to currencies exchanging, however most often it is identified with unexpected changes of their prices. In terms of the global financial crisis of 2007–2009, the fx risk has raised significantly, revealing a high daily volatility, increased spreads and the reversal of long-term exchange rate trends. Such increased risk especially influenced emerging markets economies, including Poland. Its consequence was quick strengthening of Polish currency at the beginning of the global crisis followed by a very sudden fall of its value. This event led to a substantial increase of banking risk, investment funds and corporate operations. It changed the structure of GDP sources as well as generated huge losses for exporting companies, using currency options hedging strategies.

  10. Effects of climate variability on global scale flood risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, P.; Dettinger, M. D.; Kummu, M.; Jongman, B.; Sperna Weiland, F.; Winsemius, H.

    2013-12-01

    In this contribution we demonstrate the influence of climate variability on flood risk. Globally, flooding is one of the worst natural hazards in terms of economic damages; Munich Re estimates global losses in the last decade to be in excess of $240 billion. As a result, scientifically sound estimates of flood risk at the largest scales are increasingly needed by industry (including multinational companies and the insurance industry) and policy communities. Several assessments of global scale flood risk under current and conditions have recently become available, and this year has seen the first studies assessing how flood risk may change in the future due to global change. However, the influence of climate variability on flood risk has as yet hardly been studied, despite the fact that: (a) in other fields (drought, hurricane damage, food production) this variability is as important for policy and practice as long term change; and (b) climate variability has a strong influence in peak riverflows around the world. To address this issue, this contribution illustrates the influence of ENSO-driven climate variability on flood risk, at both the globally aggregated scale and the scale of countries and large river basins. Although it exerts significant and widespread influences on flood peak discharges in many parts of the world, we show that ENSO does not have a statistically significant influence on flood risk once aggregated to global totals. At the scale of individual countries, though, strong relationships exist over large parts of the Earth's surface. For example, we find particularly strong anomalies of flood risk in El Niño or La Niña years (compared to all years) in southern Africa, parts of western Africa, Australia, parts of Central Eurasia (especially for El Niño), the western USA (especially for La Niña), and parts of South America. These findings have large implications for both decadal climate-risk projections and long-term future climate change

  11. Measuring Producers' Risk Preferences: A Global Risk Attitude Construct

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pennings, J.M.E.; Garcia, P.

    2001-01-01

    In applied agricultural economic research various risk-attitude elicitation techniques are used. Here, we investigate whether risk-attitude measures rooted in the expected utility framework are related to measures rooted in the multi-item scale framework. Using a second-order factor analytical

  12. Revealing the underlying drivers of disaster risk: a global analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peduzzi, Pascal

    2017-04-01

    Disasters events are perfect examples of compound events. Disaster risk lies at the intersection of several independent components such as hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Understanding the weight of each component requires extensive standardisation. Here, I show how footprints of past disastrous events were generated using GIS modelling techniques and used for extracting population and economic exposures based on distribution models. Using past event losses, it was possible to identify and quantify a wide range of socio-politico-economic drivers associated with human vulnerability. The analysis was applied to about nine thousand individual past disastrous events covering earthquakes, floods and tropical cyclones. Using a multiple regression analysis on these individual events it was possible to quantify each risk component and assess how vulnerability is influenced by various hazard intensities. The results show that hazard intensity, exposure, poverty, governance as well as other underlying factors (e.g. remoteness) can explain the magnitude of past disasters. Analysis was also performed to highlight the role of future trends in population and climate change and how this may impacts exposure to tropical cyclones in the future. GIS models combined with statistical multiple regression analysis provided a powerful methodology to identify, quantify and model disaster risk taking into account its various components. The same methodology can be applied to various types of risk at local to global scale. This method was applied and developed for the Global Risk Analysis of the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR). It was first applied on mortality risk in GAR 2009 and GAR 2011. New models ranging from global assets exposure and global flood hazard models were also recently developed to improve the resolution of the risk analysis and applied through CAPRA software to provide probabilistic economic risk assessments such as Average Annual Losses (AAL

  13. Association between low education and higher global cardiovascular risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Chiara, Tiziana; Scaglione, Alessandra; Corrao, Salvatore; Argano, Christiano; Pinto, Antonio; Scaglione, Rosario

    2015-05-01

    This study was designed to evaluate the impact of educational status on global cardiovascular risk in a southern Italian urban population. The study population consisted of 488 consecutive outpatients aged 18 years and older. Educational status was categorized according to the number of years of formal education as follows: (1) low education group (education group (10-15 years). In both groups, cardiometabolic comorbidities (obesity, visceral obesity, diabetes, dyslipidemia, metabolic syndrome, microalbuminuria, left ventricular hypertrophy) and global cardiovascular risk, according to international guidelines, were analyzed. Left ventricular mass index and ejection fraction by echocardiography and E/A ratio, by pulsed-wave Doppler, were calculated. The low education group was characterized by a significantly higher prevalence of patients with visceral obesity (P=.021), hypertension (P=.010), metabolic syndrome (P=.000), and microalbuminuria (P=.000) and greater global cardiovascular risk (P=.000). Significantly increased levels of microalbuminuria (P=.000) and significantly decreased values of E/A ratio (P=.000) were also detected in the low education group. Global cardiovascular risk correlated directly with waist-to-hip ratio (P=.010), microalbuminuria (P=.015), and the metabolic syndrome (P>.012) and inversely with educational status (P=.000). Education was independently (P=.000) associated with global cardiovascular risk. These data indicate a strong association between low education and cardiometabolic comorbidities suitable to influence the evolution of chronic degenerative diseases. Preventive strategies need to be more efficient and more effective in this patient population. ©2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  14. Aqueduct: a methodology to measure and communicate global water risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gassert, Francis; Reig, Paul

    2013-04-01

    The Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas (Aqueduct) is a publicly available, global database and interactive tool that maps indicators of water related risks for decision makers worldwide. Aqueduct makes use of the latest geo-statistical modeling techniques to compute a composite index and translate the most recently available hydrological data into practical information on water related risks for companies, investors, and governments alike. Twelve global indicators are grouped into a Water Risk Framework designed in response to the growing concerns from private sector actors around water scarcity, water quality, climate change, and increasing demand for freshwater. The Aqueduct framework organizes indicators into three categories of risk that bring together multiple dimensions of water related risk into comprehensive aggregated scores and includes indicators of water stress, variability in supply, storage, flood, drought, groundwater, water quality and social conflict, addressing both spatial and temporal variation in water hazards. Indicators are selected based on relevance to water users, availability and robustness of global data sources, and expert consultation, and are collected from existing datasets or derived from a Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) based integrated water balance model. Indicators are normalized using a threshold approach, and composite scores are computed using a linear aggregation scheme that allows for dynamic weighting to capture users' unique exposure to water hazards. By providing consistent scores across the globe, the Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas enables rapid comparison across diverse aspects of water risk. Companies can use this information to prioritize actions, investors to leverage financial interest to improve water management, and governments to engage with the private sector to seek solutions for more equitable and sustainable water governance. The Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas enables practical applications of scientific data

  15. The globalization of risk and risk perception: why we need a new model of risk communication for vaccines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larson, Heidi; Brocard Paterson, Pauline; Erondu, Ngozi

    2012-11-01

    Risk communication and vaccines is complex and the nature of risk perception is changing, with perceptions converging, evolving and having impacts well beyond specific geographic localities and points in time, especially when amplified through the Internet and other modes of global communication. This article examines the globalization of risk perceptions and their impacts, including the example of measles and the globalization of measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine risk perceptions, and calls for a new, more holistic model of risk assessment, risk communication and risk mitigation, embedded in an ongoing process of risk management for vaccines and immunization programmes. It envisions risk communication as an ongoing process that includes trust-building strategies hand-in-hand with operational and policy strategies needed to mitigate and manage vaccine-related risks, as well as perceptions of risk.

  16. Conceptual risk assessment framework for global change risk analysis SRP

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Elphinstone, CD

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available on two of the most important underlying factors supporting the ecosystem: productivity and hypoxia afiecting harmful algae blooms (HABs) and the rock lobsters. The risk regimes are a function of two time scales | a ‘high’ wind stress in early summer... is a condition which can lead to various negative impacts depending on the particular marine life, for instance rock lobsters stranding. The exact deflnitions of the two seasonal occurrences resulting in the risk event, ‘high’ wind stress in ‘early...

  17. A framework for global river flood risk assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winsemius, H. C.; Van Beek, L. P. H.; Jongman, B.; Ward, P. J.; Bouwman, A.

    2013-05-01

    There is an increasing need for strategic global assessments of flood risks in current and future conditions. In this paper, we propose a framework for global flood risk assessment for river floods, which can be applied in current conditions, as well as in future conditions due to climate and socio-economic changes. The framework's goal is to establish flood hazard and impact estimates at a high enough resolution to allow for their combination into a risk estimate, which can be used for strategic global flood risk assessments. The framework estimates hazard at a resolution of ~ 1 km2 using global forcing datasets of the current (or in scenario mode, future) climate, a global hydrological model, a global flood-routing model, and more importantly, an inundation downscaling routine. The second component of the framework combines hazard with flood impact models at the same resolution (e.g. damage, affected GDP, and affected population) to establish indicators for flood risk (e.g. annual expected damage, affected GDP, and affected population). The framework has been applied using the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, which includes an optional global flood routing model DynRout, combined with scenarios from the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE). We performed downscaling of the hazard probability distributions to 1 km2 resolution with a new downscaling algorithm, applied on Bangladesh as a first case study application area. We demonstrate the risk assessment approach in Bangladesh based on GDP per capita data, population, and land use maps for 2010 and 2050. Validation of the hazard estimates has been performed using the Dartmouth Flood Observatory database. This was done by comparing a high return period flood with the maximum observed extent, as well as by comparing a time series of a single event with Dartmouth imagery of the event. Validation of modelled damage estimates was performed using observed damage estimates from the EM

  18. A framework for global river flood risk assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. C. Winsemius

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available There is an increasing need for strategic global assessments of flood risks in current and future conditions. In this paper, we propose a framework for global flood risk assessment for river floods, which can be applied in current conditions, as well as in future conditions due to climate and socio-economic changes. The framework's goal is to establish flood hazard and impact estimates at a high enough resolution to allow for their combination into a risk estimate, which can be used for strategic global flood risk assessments. The framework estimates hazard at a resolution of ~ 1 km2 using global forcing datasets of the current (or in scenario mode, future climate, a global hydrological model, a global flood-routing model, and more importantly, an inundation downscaling routine. The second component of the framework combines hazard with flood impact models at the same resolution (e.g. damage, affected GDP, and affected population to establish indicators for flood risk (e.g. annual expected damage, affected GDP, and affected population. The framework has been applied using the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, which includes an optional global flood routing model DynRout, combined with scenarios from the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE. We performed downscaling of the hazard probability distributions to 1 km2 resolution with a new downscaling algorithm, applied on Bangladesh as a first case study application area. We demonstrate the risk assessment approach in Bangladesh based on GDP per capita data, population, and land use maps for 2010 and 2050. Validation of the hazard estimates has been performed using the Dartmouth Flood Observatory database. This was done by comparing a high return period flood with the maximum observed extent, as well as by comparing a time series of a single event with Dartmouth imagery of the event. Validation of modelled damage estimates was performed using observed damage estimates from

  19. Thrombotic risk assessment in APS: the Global APS Score (GAPSS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sciascia, S; Bertolaccini, M L

    2014-10-01

    Recently, we developed a risk score for antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) (Global APS Score or GAPSS). This score derived from the combination of independent risk factors for thrombosis and pregnancy loss, taking into account the antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL) profile (criteria and non-criteria aPL), the conventional cardiovascular risk factors, and the autoimmune antibodies profile. We demonstrate that risk profile in APS can be successfully assessed, suggesting that GAPSS can be a potential quantitative marker of APS-related clinical manifestations. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

  20. Benchmarking Global Food Safety Performances: The Era of Risk Intelligence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valleé, Jean-Charles Le; Charlebois, Sylvain

    2015-10-01

    Food safety data segmentation and limitations hamper the world's ability to select, build up, monitor, and evaluate food safety performance. Currently, there is no metric that captures the entire food safety system, and performance data are not collected strategically on a global scale. Therefore, food safety benchmarking is essential not only to help monitor ongoing performance but also to inform continued food safety system design, adoption, and implementation toward more efficient and effective food safety preparedness, responsiveness, and accountability. This comparative study identifies and evaluates common elements among global food safety systems. It provides an overall world ranking of food safety performance for 17 Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) countries, illustrated by 10 indicators organized across three food safety risk governance domains: risk assessment (chemical risks, microbial risks, and national reporting on food consumption), risk management (national food safety capacities, food recalls, food traceability, and radionuclides standards), and risk communication (allergenic risks, labeling, and public trust). Results show all countries have very high food safety standards, but Canada and Ireland, followed by France, earned excellent grades relative to their peers. However, any subsequent global ranking study should consider the development of survey instruments to gather adequate and comparable national evidence on food safety.

  1. FINANCIAL RISK COVERAGE IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBALIZATION FINANCIAL MARKETS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Esperanza González-del Foyo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In a globalized environment, the increase of risks that assume the international commerce makes necessary the to articulate the instruments of covering. The enterprise activity and the country in matter will condition in a great measure the type of covering that be needed to contract, the principal consist in: knowing the risks, evaluate its incidence, decide to cover it or assume it and in both cases the right choise most be the aplication of the strategy thatt be more efective. The States put under disposition of the enterprises a series of public mechanismes to help them to promote its internationalitation . One of the pillars where this politics rest is the use of mechanismes of riskes cover in the internacional commerce. In correspondence with the previous, to reflect on the aplications of the financial risk and the formulation of strategies to cover them in conditions of globalization of the financial markets, constitute the objetive of this article. 

  2. Sovereign Credit Risk in Latin America and Global Common Factors

    OpenAIRE

    Manuel Agosin Trumper; Juan Díaz Maureira

    2012-01-01

    This paper studies the importance of global common factors in the evolution of sovereign credit risk in a group of emerging economies (15 countries in Latin America for which daily data are available on sovereign credit spreads and CDS quotations from the beginning of 2007 until February 2012). We arrive at three principal results. First, there is robust evidence for the existence of a common factor in the evolution of the two measurements of sovereign credit risk that we use. Second, the com...

  3. Communicating health risks to the public: a global perspective

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hillier, Dawn

    2006-01-01

    ... under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act, 1988, to be identified as the author of this work. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data Communicating health risks to the public : a global perspective 1. Health risk communication I. Hillier, Dawn, 1950- 614.4'4 ISBN-13: 978-0-566-08672-4 ISBN-10: 0 566 08672 7 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publ...

  4. Education and hypertension: impact on global cardiovascular risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Chiara, Tiziana; Scaglione, Alessandra; Corrao, Salvatore; Argano, Christiano; Pinto, Antonio; Scaglione, Rosario

    2017-10-01

    Improving cardiovascular risk prediction continues to be a major challenge and effective prevention of cardiovascular disease. Accordingly, several studies have recently reported on the role of cardiovascular risk education. This study was designed to evaluate the impact of education on global cardiovascular risk in hypertensive patients. The study population consisted of 223 consecutive hypertensive outpatients. Their educational status was categorized according to the number of years of formal education as follows: (1) low education (less than 10 years) and (2) medium-high education (10-15 years). In both groups, cardiometabolic comorbidities, global cardiovascular risk and echocardiographic measurements were analysed. Less educated hypertensive subjects were characterized by a significantly higher prevalence of patients with metabolic syndrome (MetS) (p educated hypertensive subjects. In the same subjects, a significant increase in microalbuminuria (MA) (p education (r = -0.45; p Education was independently (p education may be considered the best predictor of global cardiovascular risk in hypertensives and thus has to be evaluated in the strategies of hypertension and cardiovascular risk management.

  5. ENSO impacts on flood risk at the global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Philip; Dettinger, Michael; Jongman, Brenden; Kummu, Matti; Winsemius, Hessel

    2014-05-01

    We present the impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on society and the economy, via relationships between ENSO and the hydrological cycle. We also discuss ways in which this knowledge can be used in disaster risk management and risk reduction. This contribution provides the most recent results of an ongoing 4-year collaborative research initiative to assess and map the impacts of large scale interannual climate variability on flood hazard and risk at the global scale. We have examined anomalies in flood risk between ENSO phases, whereby flood risk is expressed in terms of indicators such as: annual expected damage; annual expected affected population; annual expected affected Gross Domestic Product (GDP). We show that large anomalies in flood risk occur during El Niño or La Niña years in basins covering large parts of the Earth's surface. These anomalies reach statistical significance river basins covering almost two-thirds of the Earth's surface. Particularly strong anomalies exist in southern Africa, parts of western Africa, Australia, parts of Central Eurasia (especially for El Niño), the western USA (especially La Niña anomalies), and parts of South America. We relate these anomalies to possible causal relationships between ENSO and flood hazard, using both modelled and observed data on flood occurrence and extremity. The implications for flood risk management are many-fold. In those regions where disaster risk is strongly influenced by ENSO, the potential predictably of ENSO could be used to develop probabilistic flood risk projections with lead times up to several seasons. Such data could be used by the insurance industry in managing risk portfolios and by multinational companies for assessing the robustness of their supply chains to potential flood-related interruptions. Seasonal forecasts of ENSO influence of peak flows could also allow for improved flood early warning and regulation by dam operators, which could also reduce overall risks

  6. Expanding the definition of hypertension to incorporate global cardiovascular risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khosla, Nitin; Black, Henry R

    2006-10-01

    Recent epidemiologic analyses have changed the way that hypertension is viewed. Cardiovascular risk has been found to be elevated at levels of blood pressure previously believed to be normal and not imparting additional risk. Furthermore, the approach to hypertension has been shifted from viewing and treating it in isolation to a more comprehensive approach that incorporates a focus on global cardiovascular risk and the risk factors commonly associated with having an elevated blood pressure. However, control rates not only for hypertension but also for associated risk factors, such as hyperlipidemia and diabetes, remain abysmal, providing an even greater challenge to providers of care. To change this alarming trend, physicians must become aggressive in using the available armamentarium of lifestyle modifications and drugs in treating hypertension and other risk factors that increase the burden of atherosclerosis.

  7. Youth, Risk, and Equity in a Global World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hull, Glynda; Zacher, Jessica; Hibbert, Liesel

    2009-01-01

    This article reviews educational literatures that should be relevant to helping individuals understand and improve the lot and life chances of girls and boys who are at risk in a global world. The authors began this review with a vignette from India, a country whose linguistic and ethnic diversity, whose international reputation for advances in…

  8. Global prevalence and major risk factors of diabetic retinopathy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.W.Y. Yau (Joanne W.); S.L. Rogers (Sophie); Y. Kawasaki; E.L. Lamoureux (Ecosse); J.W. Kowalski (Jonathan); T. Bek (Toke); S.-J. Chen (Shih-Jen); J.M. Dekker (Jacqueline); A.E. Fletcher (Astrid E.); J. Grauslund (Jakob); R.C.G. Haffner; U. Hamman (Ute); M.K. Ikram (Kamran); T. Kayama (Takamasa); B.E.K. Klein (Barbara); B.E.K. Klein (Barbara); S. Krishnaiah (Sannapaneni); K. Mayurasakorn (Korapat); J.P. O'Hare (Joseph); T. Orchard; M. Porta; M. Rema (Mohan); M.S. Roy (Monique); T. Sharma (Tarun); S-M. Saw (Seang-Mei); H. Taylor (Hugh); J.M. Tielsch (James); D. Varma (Dhiraj); J.J. Wang (Jie Jin); N. Wang (Ningli); S. West (Sheila); L. Zu (Liang); M. Yasuda (Maya); X. Zhang (Xinzhi); P. Mitchell (Paul); T.Y. Wong (Tien Yin)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractOBJECTIVE - To examine the global prevalence and major risk factors for diabetic retinopathy (DR) and vision-threatening diabetic retinopathy (VTDR) among people with diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS - A pooled analysis using individual participant data from population-based studies

  9. Population risk perceptions of global warming in Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agho, Kingsley; Stevens, Garry; Taylor, Mel; Barr, Margo; Raphael, Beverley

    2010-11-01

    According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), global warming has the potential to dramatically disrupt some of life's essential requirements for health, water, air and food. Understanding how Australians perceive the risk of global warming is essential for climate change policy and planning. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of, and socio-demographic factors associated with, high levels of perceived likelihood that global warming would worsen, concern for self and family and reported behaviour changes. A module of questions on global warming was incorporated into the New South Wales Population Health Survey in the second quarter of 2007. This Computer Assisted Telephone Interview (CATI) was completed by a representative sample of 2004 adults. The weighted sample was comparable to the Australian population. Bivariate and multivariate statistical analyses were conducted to examine the socio-demographic and general health factors. Overall 62.1% perceived that global warming was likely to worsen; 56.3% were very or extremely concerned that they or their family would be directly affected by global warming; and 77.6% stated that they had made some level of change to the way they lived their lives, because of the possibility of global warming. After controlling for confounding factors, multivariate analyses revealed that those with high levels of psychological distress were 2.17 (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR)=2.17; CI: 1.16-4.03; P=0.015) times more likely to be concerned about global warming than those with low psychological distress levels. Those with a University degree or equivalent and those who lived in urban areas were significantly more likely to think that global warming would worsen compared to those without a University degree or equivalent and those who lived in the rural areas. Females were significantly (AOR=1.69; CI: 1.23-2.33; P=0.001) more likely to report they had made changes to the way they lived their lives due to the risk of

  10. Hydroclimatic risks and uncertainty in the global power sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gidden, Matthew; Byers, Edward; Greve, Peter; Kahil, Taher; Parkinson, Simon; Raptis, Catherine; Rogelj, Joeri; Satoh, Yusuke; van Vliet, Michelle; Wada, Yoshide; Krey, Volker; Langan, Simon; Riahi, Keywan

    2017-04-01

    Approximately 80% of the world's electricity supply depends on reliable water resources. Thermoelectric and hydropower plants have been impacted by low flows and floods in recent years, notably in the US, Brazil, France, and China, amongst other countries. The dependence on reliable flows imputes a large vulnerability to the electricity supply system due to hydrological variability and the impacts of climate change. Using an updated dataset of global electricity capacity with global climate and hydrological data from the ISI-MIP project, we present an overview analysis of power sector vulnerability to hydroclimatic risks, including low river flows and peak flows. We show how electricity generation in individual countries and transboundary river basins can be impacted, helping decision-makers identify key at-risk geographical regions. Furthermore, our use of a multi-model ensemble of climate and hydrological models allows us to quantify the uncertainty of projected impacts, such that basin-level risks and uncertainty can be compared.

  11. Global Natural Disaster Risk Hotspots: Transition to a Regional Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lerner-Lam, A.; Chen, R.; Dilley, M.

    2005-12-01

    The "Hotspots Project" is a collaborative study of the global distribution and occurrence of multiple natural hazards and the associated exposures of populations and their economic output. In this study we assess the global risks of two disaster-related outcomes: mortality and economic losses. We estimate risk levels by combining hazard exposure with historical vulnerability for two indicators of elements at risk-gridded population and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per unit area - for six major natural hazards: earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides, floods, drought, and cyclones. By calculating relative risks for each grid cell rather than for countries as a whole, we are able to estimate risk levels at sub-national scales. These can then be used to estimate aggregate relative multiple hazard risk at regional and national scales. Mortality-related risks are assessed on a 2.5' x 2.5' latitude-longitude grid of global population (GPW Version 3). Economic risks are assessed at the same resolution for gridded GDP per unit area, using World Bank estimates of GDP based on purchasing power parity. Global hazard data were compiled from multiple sources. The project collaborated directly with UNDP and UNEP, the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) at Columbia, and the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI) in the creation of data sets for several hazards for which global data sets did not previously exist. Drought, flood and volcano hazards are characterized in terms of event frequency, storms by frequency and severity, earthquakes by frequency and ground acceleration exceedance probability, and landslides by an index derived from probability of occurrence. The global analysis undertaken in this project is clearly limited by issues of scale as well as by the availability and quality of data. For some hazards, there exist only 15- to 25-year global records with relatively crude spatial information. Data on historical disaster losses, and particularly on

  12. The Global Earthquake Model and Disaster Risk Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolka, A. J.

    2015-12-01

    Advanced, reliable and transparent tools and data to assess earthquake risk are inaccessible to most, especially in less developed regions of the world while few, if any, globally accepted standards currently allow a meaningful comparison of risk between places. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a collaborative effort that aims to provide models, datasets and state-of-the-art tools for transparent assessment of earthquake hazard and risk. As part of this goal, GEM and its global network of collaborators have developed the OpenQuake engine (an open-source software for hazard and risk calculations), the OpenQuake platform (a web-based portal making GEM's resources and datasets freely available to all potential users), and a suite of tools to support modelers and other experts in the development of hazard, exposure and vulnerability models. These resources are being used extensively across the world in hazard and risk assessment, from individual practitioners to local and national institutions, and in regional projects to inform disaster risk reduction. Practical examples for how GEM is bridging the gap between science and disaster risk reduction are: - Several countries including Switzerland, Turkey, Italy, Ecuador, Papua-New Guinea and Taiwan (with more to follow) are computing national seismic hazard using the OpenQuake-engine. In some cases these results are used for the definition of actions in building codes. - Technical support, tools and data for the development of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk models for regional projects in South America and Sub-Saharan Africa. - Going beyond physical risk, GEM's scorecard approach evaluates local resilience by bringing together neighborhood/community leaders and the risk reduction community as a basis for designing risk reduction programs at various levels of geography. Actual case studies are Lalitpur in the Kathmandu Valley in Nepal and Quito/Ecuador. In agreement with GEM's collaborative approach, all

  13. Global risk of big earthquakes has not recently increased.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shearer, Peter M; Stark, Philip B

    2012-01-17

    The recent elevated rate of large earthquakes has fueled concern that the underlying global rate of earthquake activity has increased, which would have important implications for assessments of seismic hazard and our understanding of how faults interact. We examine the timing of large (magnitude M≥7) earthquakes from 1900 to the present, after removing local clustering related to aftershocks. The global rate of M≥8 earthquakes has been at a record high roughly since 2004, but rates have been almost as high before, and the rate of smaller earthquakes is close to its historical average. Some features of the global catalog are improbable in retrospect, but so are some features of most random sequences--if the features are selected after looking at the data. For a variety of magnitude cutoffs and three statistical tests, the global catalog, with local clusters removed, is not distinguishable from a homogeneous Poisson process. Moreover, no plausible physical mechanism predicts real changes in the underlying global rate of large events. Together these facts suggest that the global risk of large earthquakes is no higher today than it has been in the past.

  14. Aqueduct: an interactive tool to empower global water risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reig, Paul; Gassert, Francis

    2013-04-01

    The Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas (Aqueduct) is a publicly available, global database and interactive tool that maps indicators of water related risks for decision makers worldwide. Aqueduct makes use of the latest geo-statistical modeling techniques to compute a composite index and translate the most recently available hydrological data into practical information on water related risks for companies, investors, and governments alike. Twelve global indicators are grouped into a Water Risk Framework designed in response to the growing concerns from private sector actors around water scarcity, water quality, climate change, and increasing demand for freshwater. The Aqueduct framework includes indicators of water stress, variability in supply, storage, flood, drought, groundwater, water quality and social conflict, addressing both spatial and temporal variation in water hazards. It organizes indicators into three categories of risk that bring together multiple dimensions of water related risk into comprehensive aggregated scores, which allow for dynamic weighting to capture users' unique exposure to water hazards. All information is compiled into an online, open access platform, from which decision-makers can view indicators, scores, and maps, conduct global risk assessments, and export data and shape files for further analysis. Companies can use this tool to evaluate their exposure to water risks across operations and supply chains, investors to assess water-related risks in their portfolio, and public-sector actors to better understand water security. Additionally, the open nature of the data and maps allow other organizations to build off of this effort with new research, for example in the areas of water-energy or water-food relationships. This presentation will showcase the Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas online tool and the features and functionalities it offers, as well as explain how it can be used for both private and public sector applications. The session will

  15. Global building inventory for earthquake loss estimation and risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David; Porter, Keith

    2010-01-01

    We develop a global database of building inventories using taxonomy of global building types for use in near-real-time post-earthquake loss estimation and pre-earthquake risk analysis, for the U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program. The database is available for public use, subject to peer review, scrutiny, and open enhancement. On a country-by-country level, it contains estimates of the distribution of building types categorized by material, lateral force resisting system, and occupancy type (residential or nonresidential, urban or rural). The database draws on and harmonizes numerous sources: (1) UN statistics, (2) UN Habitat’s demographic and health survey (DHS) database, (3) national housing censuses, (4) the World Housing Encyclopedia and (5) other literature.

  16. Swiss Re Global Flood Hazard Zones: Know your flood risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinukollu, R. K.; Castaldi, A.; Mehlhorn, J.

    2012-12-01

    Floods, among all natural disasters, have a great damage potential. On a global basis, there is strong evidence of increase in the number of people affected and economic losses due to floods. For example, global insured flood losses have increased by 12% every year since 1970 and this is expected to further increase with growing exposure in the high risk areas close to rivers and coastlines. Recently, the insurance industry has been surprised by the large extent of losses, because most countries lack reliable hazard information. One example has been the 2011 Thailand floods where millions of people were affected and the total economic losses were 30 billion USD. In order to assess the flood risk across different regions and countries, the flood team at Swiss Re based on a Geomorphologic Regression approach, developed in house and patented, produced global maps of flood zones. Input data for the study was obtained from NASA's Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) elevation data, Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) and HydroSHEDS. The underlying assumptions of the approach are that naturally flowing rivers shape their channel and flood plain according to basin inherent forces and characteristics and that the flood water extent strongly depends on the shape of the flood plain. On the basis of the catchment characteristics, the model finally calculates the probability of a location to be flooded or not for a defined return period, which in the current study was set to 100 years. The data is produced at a 90-m resolution for latitudes 60S to 60N. This global product is now used in the insurance industry to inspect, inform and/or insure the flood risk across the world.

  17. The PREVIEW Global Risk Data Platform: a geoportal to serve and share global data on risk to natural hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Giuliani

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available With growing world population and concentration in urban and coastal areas, the exposure to natural hazards is increasing and results in higher risk of human and economic losses. Improving the identification of areas, population and assets potentially exposed to natural hazards is essential to reduce the consequences of such events. Disaster risk is a function of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Modelling risk at the global level requires accessing and processing a large number of data, from numerous collaborating centres.

    These data need to be easily updated, and there is a need for centralizing access to this information as well as simplifying its use for non GIS specialists. The Hyogo Framework for Action provides the mandate for data sharing, so that governments and international development agencies can take appropriate decision for disaster risk reduction.

    Timely access and easy integration of geospatial data are essential to support efforts in Disaster Risk Reduction. However various issues in data availability, accessibility and integration limit the use of such data. In consequence, a framework that facilitate sharing and exchange of geospatial data on natural hazards should improve decision-making process. The PREVIEW Global Risk Data Platform is a highly interactive web-based GIS portal supported by a Spatial Data Infrastructure that offers free and interoperable access to more than 60 global data sets on nine types of natural hazards (tropical cyclones and related storm surges, drought, earthquakes, biomass fires, floods, landslides, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions and related exposure and risk. This application portrays an easy-to-use online interactive mapping interface so that users can easily work with it and seamlessly integrate data in their own data flow using fully compliant OGC Web Services (OWS.

  18. The PREVIEW Global Risk Data Platform: a geoportal to serve and share global data on risk to natural hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giuliani, G.; Peduzzi, P.

    2011-01-01

    With growing world population and concentration in urban and coastal areas, the exposure to natural hazards is increasing and results in higher risk of human and economic losses. Improving the identification of areas, population and assets potentially exposed to natural hazards is essential to reduce the consequences of such events. Disaster risk is a function of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Modelling risk at the global level requires accessing and processing a large number of data, from numerous collaborating centres. These data need to be easily updated, and there is a need for centralizing access to this information as well as simplifying its use for non GIS specialists. The Hyogo Framework for Action provides the mandate for data sharing, so that governments and international development agencies can take appropriate decision for disaster risk reduction. Timely access and easy integration of geospatial data are essential to support efforts in Disaster Risk Reduction. However various issues in data availability, accessibility and integration limit the use of such data. In consequence, a framework that facilitate sharing and exchange of geospatial data on natural hazards should improve decision-making process. The PREVIEW Global Risk Data Platform is a highly interactive web-based GIS portal supported by a Spatial Data Infrastructure that offers free and interoperable access to more than 60 global data sets on nine types of natural hazards (tropical cyclones and related storm surges, drought, earthquakes, biomass fires, floods, landslides, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions) and related exposure and risk. This application portrays an easy-to-use online interactive mapping interface so that users can easily work with it and seamlessly integrate data in their own data flow using fully compliant OGC Web Services (OWS).

  19. Investors’ Risk Appetite and Global Financial Market Conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo

    2008-01-01

    A structural vector autoregression model is developed to analyze the dynamics of bond spreads among a sample of mature and developing countries during periods of financial stress in the last decade. The model identifies and quantifies the contribution on bond spreads from global market conditions (including funding liquidity, market liquidity, as well as credit and volatility risks), contagion effects, and idiosyncratic factors. While idiosyncratic factors explain a large amount of the change...

  20. An experimental system for flood risk forecasting at global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfieri, L.; Dottori, F.; Kalas, M.; Lorini, V.; Bianchi, A.; Hirpa, F. A.; Feyen, L.; Salamon, P.

    2016-12-01

    Global flood forecasting and monitoring systems are nowadays a reality and are being applied by an increasing range of users and practitioners in disaster risk management. Furthermore, there is an increasing demand from users to integrate flood early warning systems with risk based forecasts, combining streamflow estimations with expected inundated areas and flood impacts. To this end, we have developed an experimental procedure for near-real time flood mapping and impact assessment based on the daily forecasts issued by the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). The methodology translates GloFAS streamflow forecasts into event-based flood hazard maps based on the predicted flow magnitude and the forecast lead time and a database of flood hazard maps with global coverage. Flood hazard maps are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information to derive flood risk. Impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in terms of flood prone areas, potential economic damage, and affected population, infrastructures and cities. To further increase the reliability of the proposed methodology we integrated model-based estimations with an innovative methodology for social media monitoring, which allows for real-time verification of impact forecasts. The preliminary tests provided good results and showed the potential of the developed real-time operational procedure in helping emergency response and management. In particular, the link with social media is crucial for improving the accuracy of impact predictions.

  1. Geography of current and future global mammal extinction risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana D Davidson

    variation in the pressures faced by populations within the ranges of individual species. The added impacts from climate change may increase the susceptibility of at-risk species to extinction and expand the regions where mammals are most vulnerable globally.

  2. Geography of current and future global mammal extinction risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidson, Ana D; Shoemaker, Kevin T; Weinstein, Ben; Costa, Gabriel C; Brooks, Thomas M; Ceballos, Gerardo; Radeloff, Volker C; Rondinini, Carlo; Graham, Catherine H

    2017-01-01

    pressures faced by populations within the ranges of individual species. The added impacts from climate change may increase the susceptibility of at-risk species to extinction and expand the regions where mammals are most vulnerable globally.

  3. Environmental health risk assessment and management for global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, P.

    2014-12-01

    This environmental health risk assessment and management approach for atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution is based almost entirely on IPCC AR5 (2014) content, but the IPCC does not make recommendations. Large climate model uncertainties may be large environmental health risks. In accordance with environmental health risk management, we use the standard (IPCC-endorsed) formula of risk as the product of magnitude times probability, with an extremely high standard of precaution. Atmospheric GHG pollution, causing global warming, climate change and ocean acidification, is increasing as fast as ever. Time is of the essence to inform and make recommendations to governments and the public. While the 2ºC target is the only formally agreed-upon policy limit, for the most vulnerable nations, a 1.5ºC limit is being considered by the UNFCCC Secretariat. The Climate Action Network International (2014), representing civil society, recommends that the 1.5ºC limit be kept open and that emissions decline from 2015. James Hansen et al (2013) have argued that 1ºC is the danger limit. Taking into account committed global warming, its millennial duration, multiple large sources of amplifying climate feedbacks and multiple adverse impacts of global warming and climate change on crops, and population health impacts, all the IPCC AR5 scenarios carry extreme environmental health risks to large human populations and to the future of humanity as a whole. Our risk consideration finds that 2ºC carries high risks of many catastrophic impacts, that 1.5ºC carries high risks of many disastrous impacts, and that 1ºC is the danger limit. IPCC AR4 (2007) showed that emissions must be reversed by 2015 for a 2ºC warming limit. For the IPCC AR5 only the best-case scenario RCP2.6, is projected to stay under 2ºC by 2100 but the upper range is just above 2ºC. It calls for emissions to decline by 2020. We recommend that for catastrophic environmental health risk aversion, emissions decline

  4. Landslide risk reduction strategies: an inventory for the Global South

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maes, Jan; Kervyn, Matthieu; Vranken, Liesbet; Dewitte, Olivier; Vanmaercke, Matthias; Mertens, Kewan; Jacobs, Liesbet; Poesen, Jean

    2015-04-01

    Landslides constitute a serious problem globally. Moreover, landslide impact remains underestimated especially in the Global South. It is precisely there where the largest impact is experienced. An overview of measures taken to reduce risk of landslides in the Global South is however still lacking. Because in many countries of the Global South disaster risk reduction (DRR) is at an emerging stage, it is crucial to monitor the ongoing efforts (e.g. discussions on the Post-2015 Framework for DRR). The first objective of this study is to make an inventory of techniques and strategies that are applied to reduce risk from landslides in tropical countries. The second objective is to investigate what are the main bottlenecks for implementation of DRR strategies. In order to achieve these objectives, a review of both scientific and grey literature was conducted, supplemented with expert knowledge. The compilation of recommended and implemented DRR measures from landslide-prone tropical countries is based on an adapted classification proposed by the SafeLand project. According to Vaciago (2013), landslide risk can be reduced by either reducing the hazard, the vulnerability, the number or value of elements at risk or by sharing the residual risk. In addition, these measures can be combined with education and/or awareness raising and are influenced by governance structures and cultural beliefs. Global landslide datasets have been used to identify landslide-prone countries, augmented with region-specific datasets. Countries located in the tropics were selected in order to include landslide-prone countries with a different Human Development Index (HDI) but with a similar climate. Preliminary results support the statement made by Anderson (2013) that although the importance of shifting from post-disaster emergency actions to pre-disaster mitigation is acknowledged, in practice this paradigm shift seems rather limited. It is expected that this is especially the case in countries

  5. Visualization of the chains of risks under global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yokohata, T.; Nishina, K.; Takahashi, K.; Kiguchi, M.; Iseri, Y.; Sueyoshi, T.; Yoshimori, M.; Iwase, K.; Yamamoto, A.; Shigemitsu, M.; Honda, Y.; Hanasaki, N.; Masaki, Y.; Ito, A.; Iizumi, T.; Sakurai, G.; Okada, M.; Emori, S.; Oki, T.

    2014-12-01

    Anthropogenic climate change possibly causes various impacts on human society and ecosystem. Here, we call possible damages or benefits caused by the future climate change as "climate risks". Many climate risks are closely interconnected with each other by direct cause-effect relationship. In this study, the major climate risks are comprehensively summarized based on the survey of studies in the literature using IPCC AR5 etc, and their cause-effect relationship are visualized by a "network diagram". This research is conducted by the collaboration between the experts of various fields, such as water, energy, agriculture, health, society, and eco-system under the project called ICA-RUS (Integrated Climate Assessment - Risks, Uncertainties and Society). First, the climate risks are classified into 9 categories (water, energy, food, health, disaster, industry, society, ecosystem, and tipping elements). Second, researchers of these fields in our project survey the research articles, and pick up items of climate risks, and possible cause-effect relationship between the risk items. A long list of the climate risks is summarized into ~130, and that of possible cause-effect relationship between the risk items is summarized into ~300, because the network diagram would be illegible if the number of the risk items and cause-effect relationship is too large. Here, we only consider the risks that could occur if climate mitigation policies are not conducted. Finally, the chain of climate risks is visualized by creating a "network diagram" based on a network graph theory (Fruchtman & Reingold algorithm). Through the analysis of network diagram, we find that climate risks at various sectors are closely related. For example, the decrease in the precipitation under the global climate change possibly causes the decrease in river runoff and the decrease in soil moisture, which causes the changes in crop production. The changes in crop production can have an impact on society by

  6. Global Amphibian Extinction Risk Assessment for the Panzootic Chytrid Fungus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew C. Fisher

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Species are being lost at increasing rates due to anthropogenic effects, leading to the recognition that we are witnessing the onset of a sixth mass extinction. Emerging infectious disease has been shown to increase species loss and any attempts to reduce extinction rates need to squarely confront this challenge. Here, we develop a procedure for identifying amphibian species that are most at risk from the effects of chytridiomycosis by combining spatial analyses of key host life-history variables with the pathogen's predicted distribution. We apply our rule set to the known global diversity of amphibians in order to prioritize pecies that are most at risk of loss from disease emergence. This risk assessment shows where limited conservation funds are best deployed in order to prevent further loss of species by enabling ex situ amphibian salvage operations and focusing any potential disease mitigation projects.

  7. Global health risks and cosmopolitisation: from emergence to interference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Figuié, Muriel

    2013-02-01

    According to Beck's 'World at Risk' theory, global risks push nations towards a cosmopolitisation of their health policy and open opportunities for a democratic turn. This article provides an empirical analysis of Beck's theory, based on the experience of Vietnamese authorities from 2003 to 2007 in managing the emerging avian flu virus. It shows how Vietnam's framing of avian flu has shifted, under the pressure from international organisations and the US administration, from an epizootic and zoonotic risk (or a classic risk) to a pandemic threat (or a late modern risk). Vietnam's response was part of its overall strategy to join the World Trade Organization and it was limited by Vietnam's defence of its sovereignty. This strategy has been successful for Vietnam but has limited the possibility of cosmopolitan and democratic transformations. The case study highlights the constructed dimension of risks of late modernity and their possible instrumentalisation: it minimises the role of a community of fear relative to a community of trade. © 2013 The Author. Sociology of Health & Illness © 2013 Foundation for the Sociology of Health & Illness/Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  8. Global ocean conveyor lowers extinction risk in the deep sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henry, Lea-Anne; Frank, Norbert; Hebbeln, Dierk; Wienberg, Claudia; Robinson, Laura; van de Flierdt, Tina; Dahl, Mikael; Douarin, Mélanie; Morrison, Cheryl L.; López Correa, Matthias; Rogers, Alex D.; Ruckelshausen, Mario; Roberts, J. Murray

    2014-06-01

    General paradigms of species extinction risk are urgently needed as global habitat loss and rapid climate change threaten Earth with what could be its sixth mass extinction. Using the stony coral Lophelia pertusa as a model organism with the potential for wide larval dispersal, we investigated how the global ocean conveyor drove an unprecedented post-glacial range expansion in Earth's largest biome, the deep sea. We compiled a unique ocean-scale dataset of published radiocarbon and uranium-series dates of fossil corals, the sedimentary protactinium-thorium record of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength, authigenic neodymium and lead isotopic ratios of circulation pathways, and coral biogeography, and integrated new Bayesian estimates of historic gene flow. Our compilation shows how the export of Southern Ocean and Mediterranean waters after the Younger Dryas 11.6 kyr ago simultaneously triggered two dispersal events in the western and eastern Atlantic respectively. Each pathway injected larvae from refugia into ocean currents powered by a re-invigorated AMOC that led to the fastest postglacial range expansion ever recorded, covering 7500 km in under 400 years. In addition to its role in modulating global climate, our study illuminates how the ocean conveyor creates broad geographic ranges that lower extinction risk in the deep sea.

  9. GLObal RIsk MANagement system for plant operations GLORIMAN

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silverman, Eugene B.

    2004-01-01

    Considerable effort has been expended by nuclear power plants in the preparation of their Independent Plant Evaluation (IPE) programs. The result of these projects is the generation of very useful information concerning plant operations, states, availability and risk. The potential application of this information is often unrealized due to the unwieldy form of the data as reported in the IPE. Plant personnel would benefit greatly from quick access to risk information as a means of supporting day-to-day decisions, but the information exists only in a difficult to understand and inaccessible form. There is a need to translate the costs invested in Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) projects into a useable tool for plant personnel. This paper describes a software tool developed by ARD Corporation to be used by plants to assist in determining the operational risks and benefits associated with modifying the plant state during normal and off-normal operations for performing maintenance. This tool integrates a relational database with an easy-to-use graphical user interface and several unique software features. The result is a responsive, easy-to-understand tool that integrates an organization's PRA/IPE into the operational and maintenance needs of the station. The Global Risk Management System is designed to allow the user to evaluate the risk associated with current and proposed plant states. The impact of changes in plant configuration, operational modes and equipment availability are assessed from a risk management perspective, but displayed in an easy-to-understand form for personnel not familiar with risk methodology. Additionally, pipe and instrumentation drawings can be retrieved by the user and displayed as a reference tool. (author)

  10. Global risk of radioactive fallout after major nuclear reactor accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lelieveld, J.; Kunkel, D.; Lawrence, M.G.

    2012-01-01

    Major reactor accidents of nuclear power plants are rare, yet the consequences are catastrophic. But what is meant by ''rare''? And what can be learned from the Chernobyl and Fukushima incidents? Here we assess the cumulative, global risk of exposure to radioactivity due to atmospheric dispersion of gases and particles following severe nuclear accidents (the most severe ones on the International Nuclear Event Scale, INES 7), using particulate "1"3"7Cs and gaseous "1"3"1I as proxies for the fallout. Our results indicate that previously the occurrence of INES 7 major accidents and the risks of radioactive contamination have been underestimated. Using a global model of the atmosphere we compute that on average, in the event of a major reactor accident of any nuclear power plant worldwide, more than 90% of emitted "1"3"7Cs would be transported beyond 50 km and about 50% beyond 1000 km distance before being deposited. This corroborates that such accidents have large-scale and trans-boundary impacts. Although the emission strengths and atmospheric removal processes of "1"3"7Cs and "1"3"1I are quite different, the radioactive contamination patterns over land and the human exposure due to deposition are computed to be similar. High human exposure risks occur around reactors in densely populated regions, notably in West Europe and South Asia, where a major reactor accident can subject around 30 million people to radioactive contamination. The recent decision by Germany to phase out its nuclear reactors will reduce the national risk, though a large risk will still remain from the reactors in neighbouring countries.

  11. Asymmetric impacts of global risk appetite on the risk premium for an emerging market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanlı, İbrahim Burak

    2008-05-01

    This paper analyzes the impact of global risk appetite on the risk premium utilizing high-frequency data. Taking the Turkish economy as our laboratory, we find that the risk premium volatility responds only to a worsening in the risk appetite for the Turkish economy, which is a result that we do not observe for the other emerging markets. Then, we investigate the role of current account dynamics on this asymmetric effect, by focusing also on an economy with similar current account performance. The empirical results find supporting evidence for the role of current account dynamics on the estimated asymmetry.

  12. Risk-analysis of global climate tipping points

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frieler, Katja; Meinshausen, Malte; Braun, N [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research e.V., Potsdam (Germany). PRIMAP Research Group; and others

    2012-09-15

    There are many elements of the Earth system that are expected to change gradually with increasing global warming. Changes might prove to be reversible after global warming returns to lower levels. But there are others that have the potential of showing a threshold behavior. This means that these changes would imply a transition between qualitatively disparate states which can be triggered by only small shifts in background climate (2). These changes are often expected not to be reversible by returning to the current level of warming. The reason for that is, that many of them are characterized by self-amplifying processes that could lead to a new internally stable state which is qualitatively different from before. There are different elements of the climate system that are already identified as potential tipping elements. This group contains the mass losses of the Greenland and the West-Antarctic Ice Sheet, the decline of the Arctic summer sea ice, different monsoon systems, the degradation of coral reefs, the dieback of the Amazon rainforest, the thawing of the permafrost regions as well as the release of methane hydrates (3). Crucially, these tipping elements have regional to global scale effects on human society, biodiversity and/or ecosystem services. Several examples may have a discernable effect on global climate through a large-scale positive feedback. This means they would further amplify the human induced climate change. These tipping elements pose risks comparable to risks found in other fields of human activity: high-impact events that have at least a few percent chance to occur classify as high-risk events. In many of these examples adaptation options are limited and prevention of occurrence may be a more viable strategy. Therefore, a better understanding of the processes driving tipping points is essential. There might be other tipping elements even more critical but not yet identified. These may also lie within our socio-economic systems that are

  13. Local to global: a collaborative approach to volcanic risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calder, Eliza; Loughlin, Sue; Barsotti, Sara; Bonadonna, Costanza; Jenkins, Susanna

    2017-04-01

    Volcanic risk assessments at all scales present challenges related to the multitude of volcanic hazards, data gaps (hazards and vulnerability in particular), model representation and resources. Volcanic hazards include lahars, pyroclastic density currents, lava flows, tephra fall, ballistics, gas dispersal and also earthquakes, debris avalanches, tsunamis and more ... they can occur in different combinations and interact in different ways throughout the unrest, eruption and post-eruption period. Volcanoes and volcanic hazards also interact with other natural hazards (e.g. intense rainfall). Currently many hazards assessments consider the hazards from a single volcano but at national to regional scales the potential impacts of multiple volcanoes over time become important. The hazards that have the greatest tendency to affect large areas up to global scale are those transported in the atmosphere: volcanic particles and gases. Volcanic ash dispersal has the greatest potential to directly or indirectly affect the largest number of people worldwide, it is currently the only volcanic hazard for which a global assessment exists. The quantitative framework used (primarily at a regional scale) considers the hazard at a given location from any volcano. Flow hazards such as lahars and floods can have devastating impacts tens of kilometres from a source volcano and lahars can be devastating decades after an eruption has ended. Quantitative assessment of impacts is increasingly undertaken after eruptions to identify thresholds for damage and reduced functionality. Some hazards such as lava flows could be considered binary (totally destructive) but others (e.g. ash fall) have varying degrees of impact. Such assessments are needed to enhance available impact and vulnerability data. Currently, most studies focus on physical vulnerability but there is a growing emphasis on social vulnerability showing that it is highly variable and dynamic with pre-eruption socio

  14. Global recession and microfinance risk governance in developing countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberto Moro Visconti

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Global recession, started in 2008, is still proving an unresolved perfect storm and the financial crisis has affected also the real economy, creating widespread social unrest. Microfinance institutions (MFIs in developing countries seem however less affected by the worldwide turmoil, due to their segmentation and resilience to external shocks. Recession has a big impact on governance mechanisms, altering the equilibriums among different stakeholders and increasing the risk of investment returns; any governance improvement is highly welcome and recommended. No governance, no money for growth or bare survival. In the confused phase we are living in, at the moment there are not evident winners, but the underbanked poorest, unless properly supported, once again risk being the ultimate losers.

  15. Global risk & global challenges - Space as a game changer for socioeconomic sustainable development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehnert, Christopher; Karlsson, Evelina; Giannopapa, Christina

    2017-11-01

    The world's societies at the beginning of the 21st century are better off than ever before. (Gapminder, 2015) At the same time, the world is also threatened by global challenges where space as a tool has and can play a pivotal role in meeting those challenges. The challenges range from climate change, over mass unemployment, to terrorism or migration - to name but a few. Space activities have started to respond to this changing world, not only by providing a deeper understanding of our universe, but by using space as an additional sphere and sector, through which humankind can increase and secure its wealth - it is thus game changing in the way we sustain humanity's existence. This paper is meant to capture this development. In the first part, an overview is given on the risks that humankind is facing. The second part describes the way that space can be used as a tool to prevent and manage these risks. The overview in the first part is based on the examination of the most recent reports and overall strategies of key International Governmental Organisations and Non-Governmental Organisations that are involved in agenda-setting, policy formulation and implementation. The second part includes an overview on current activities of the European Space Agency (ESA) that play a role in responding to these risks. To better understand ESA's activities that contain humanity's risks, a standard classification for risks management is used, which distinguishes between four components: Identification, Assessment, Management and Communication (Renn, 2005). The analysis reveals how space activities already today play a pivotal role in all four types of risk management. Space activities contribute very tangible to the management of risks through its space mission, but also in a more indirect way, as providing the technical backbone for stable and reliable cooperation in the international governance arena, and serve as crucial economic stimulator. The overall results show that space

  16. A global assessment of closed forests, deforestation and malaria risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    GUERRA, C. A.; SNOW, R. W.; HAY, S. I.

    2011-01-01

    Global environmental change is expected to affect profoundly the transmission of the parasites that cause human malaria. Amongst the anthropogenic drivers of change, deforestation is arguably the most conspicuous, and its rate is projected to increase in the coming decades. The canonical epidemiological understanding is that deforestation increases malaria risk in Africa and the Americas and diminishes it in South–east Asia. Partial support for this position is provided here, through a systematic review of the published literature on deforestation, malaria and the relevant vector bionomics. By using recently updated boundaries for the spatial limits of malaria and remotely-sensed estimates of tree cover, it has been possible to determine the population at risk of malaria in closed forest, at least for those malaria-endemic countries that lie within the main blocks of tropical forest. Closed forests within areas of malaria risk cover approximately 1.5 million km2 in the Amazon region, 1.4 million km2 in Central Africa, 1.2 million km2 in the Western Pacific, and 0.7 million km2 in South–east Asia. The corresponding human populations at risk of malaria within these forests total 11.7 million, 18.7 million, 35.1 million and 70.1 million, respectively. By coupling these numbers with the country-specific rates of deforestation, it has been possible to rank malaria-endemic countries according to their potential for change in the population at risk of malaria, as the result of deforestation. The on-going research aimed at evaluating these relationships more quantitatively, through the Malaria Atlas Project (MAP), is highlighted. PMID:16630376

  17. Risks in global natural gas markets: Investment, hedging and trade

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Egging, Ruud; Holz, Franziska

    2016-01-01

    Recent supply security concerns in Europe have revived interest into the natural gas market. We investigate infrastructure investment and trade in an imperfect market structure for various possible risks for both supply and demand. We focus on three possible scenarios in a stochastic global gas market model: (i) transit of Russian gas via Ukraine that may be disrupted from 2020 on; (ii) natural gas intensity of electricity generation in OECD countries that may lead to higher or lower natural gas demand after 2025; and (iii) availability of shale gas around the globe after 2030. We illustrate how the timing of investments is affected by inter-temporal hedging behavior of market agents, such as when LNG capacity provides ex-ante flexibility or an ex-post fallback option if domestic or nearby pipeline supply sources are low. Moreover, we find that investment in LNG capacities is more determined by demand side pull – due to higher needs in electric power generation – than by supply side push, e.g. higher shale gas supplies needing an outlet. We focus on Europe, North America, and China that are the world's most important gas consuming and supplying regions. - Highlights: •We use the stochastic variant of the multi-period Global Gas Model. •We investigate the effects of uncertainty in Russian exports, demand, and shale gas. •We find that LNG is preferred as hedging option in anticipation of uncertain events. •Pipelines may be chosen as recourse decision after uncertain events realized. •China will dominate the global natural gas market regardless the scenario.

  18. Ecological risk assessment in the context of global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landis, Wayne G; Durda, Judi L; Brooks, Marjorie L; Chapman, Peter M; Menzie, Charles A; Stahl, Ralph G; Stauber, Jennifer L

    2013-01-01

    Changes to sources, stressors, habitats, and geographic ranges; toxicological effects; end points; and uncertainty estimation require significant changes in the implementation of ecological risk assessment (ERA). Because of the lack of analog systems and circumstances in historically studied sites, there is a likelihood of type III error. As a first step, the authors propose a decision key to aid managers and risk assessors in determining when and to what extent climate change should be incorporated. Next, when global climate change is an important factor, the authors recommend seven critical changes to ERA. First, develop conceptual cause-effect diagrams that consider relevant management decisions as well as appropriate spatial and temporal scales to include both direct and indirect effects of climate change and the stressor of management interest. Second, develop assessment end points that are expressed as ecosystem services. Third, evaluate multiple stressors and nonlinear responses-include the chemicals and the stressors related to climate change. Fourth, estimate how climate change will affect or modify management options as the impacts become manifest. Fifth, consider the direction and rate of change relative to management objectives, recognizing that both positive and negative outcomes can occur. Sixth, determine the major drivers of uncertainty, estimating and bounding stochastic uncertainty spatially, temporally, and progressively. Seventh, plan for adaptive management to account for changing environmental conditions and consequent changes to ecosystem services. Good communication is essential for making risk-related information understandable and useful for managers and stakeholders to implement a successful risk-assessment and decision-making process. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

  19. Global risk of pharmaceutical contamination from highly populated developing countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehman, Muhammad Saif Ur; Rashid, Naim; Ashfaq, Muhammad; Saif, Ameena; Ahmad, Nasir; Han, Jong-In

    2015-11-01

    Global pharmaceutical industry has relocated from the west to Asian countries to ensure competitive advantage. This industrial relocation has posed serious threats to the environment. The present study was carried out to assess the possible pharmaceutical contamination in the environment of emerging pharmaceutical manufacturing countries (Bangladesh, China, India and Pakistan). Although these countries have made tremendous progress in the pharmaceutical sector but most of their industrial units discharge wastewater into domestic sewage network without any treatment. The application of untreated wastewater (industrial and domestic) and biosolids (sewage sludge and manure) in agriculture causes the contamination of surface water, soil, groundwater, and the entire food web with pharmaceutical compounds (PCs), their metabolites and transformed products (TPs), and multidrug resistant microbes. This pharmaceutical contamination in Asian countries poses global risks via product export and international traveling. Several prospective research hypotheses including the development of new analytical methods to monitor these PCs/TPs and their metabolites, highly resistant microbial strains, and mixture toxicity as a consequence of pharmaceutical contamination in these emerging pharmaceutical exporters have also been proposed based on the available literature. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Climate change, global risks, challenges and decisions. Synthesis report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richardson, K.; Steffen, W.; Schellnhuber, H.J.

    2009-03-01

    The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) meeting to be held in Copenhagen in December 2009 (the 15th Conference of the Parties, COP-15) will be a critical step in developing a global response to the threat of climate change caused by human activities. The primary scientific input to those negotiations is the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), published in 2007. The IPCC report has already been instrumental in increasing both public and political awareness of the societal risks associated with unchecked emission of greenhouse gases. Since the production of the IPCC report, new knowledge has emerged that furthers understanding of the impacts of human influence on the climate and the response options and approaches that are available to tackle this complex issue. To bring this new knowledge together, the International Alliance of Research Universities organised an international scientific congress on climate change, Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions, which was held in Copenhagen from 10-12 March 2009. Participants came from nearly 80 different countries and contributed with more than 1400 scientific presentations. Abstracts for all of the scientific presentations made can be found at www.iop.org/EJ/volume/1755-1315/6, and a transcript of the closing plenary session can be found at environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/opinion/39126. This synthesis report presents an up-to-date overview of a broad range of research relevant to climate change - including fundamental climate science, the impacts of a changing climate on society and environment, and the many tools and approaches available to deal effectively with the challenge of climate change. (LN)

  1. Global review of open access risk assessment software packages valid for global or continental scale analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniell, James; Simpson, Alanna; Gunasekara, Rashmin; Baca, Abigail; Schaefer, Andreas; Ishizawa, Oscar; Murnane, Rick; Tijssen, Annegien; Deparday, Vivien; Forni, Marc; Himmelfarb, Anne; Leder, Jan

    2015-04-01

    Over the past few decades, a plethora of open access software packages for the calculation of earthquake, volcanic, tsunami, storm surge, wind and flood have been produced globally. As part of the World Bank GFDRR Review released at the Understanding Risk 2014 Conference, over 80 such open access risk assessment software packages were examined. Commercial software was not considered in the evaluation. A preliminary analysis was used to determine whether the 80 models were currently supported and if they were open access. This process was used to select a subset of 31 models that include 8 earthquake models, 4 cyclone models, 11 flood models, and 8 storm surge/tsunami models for more detailed analysis. By using multi-criteria analysis (MCDA) and simple descriptions of the software uses, the review allows users to select a few relevant software packages for their own testing and development. The detailed analysis evaluated the models on the basis of over 100 criteria and provides a synopsis of available open access natural hazard risk modelling tools. In addition, volcano software packages have since been added making the compendium of risk software tools in excess of 100. There has been a huge increase in the quality and availability of open access/source software over the past few years. For example, private entities such as Deltares now have an open source policy regarding some flood models (NGHS). In addition, leaders in developing risk models in the public sector, such as Geoscience Australia (EQRM, TCRM, TsuDAT, AnuGA) or CAPRA (ERN-Flood, Hurricane, CRISIS2007 etc.), are launching and/or helping many other initiatives. As we achieve greater interoperability between modelling tools, we will also achieve a future wherein different open source and open access modelling tools will be increasingly connected and adapted towards unified multi-risk model platforms and highly customised solutions. It was seen that many software tools could be improved by enabling user

  2. Managing Food Quality Risk in Global Supply Chain: A Risk Management Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pablo Jose Arevalo Chavez

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Today, the food sector is one of the sectors most vulnerable to intentional contamination by debilitating agents [1]. Some cases of contaminated food have indicated that product quality risk is one of the vulnerabilities in the global supply chain. A series of company scandals, affecting reputation and causing the recall of products and increasing costs have hit the food industry. The obvious problem is that even a minor incident in one part of the chain can have disastrous effects on other parts of the supply chain. Thus, risks are transmitted through the chain. Even though the dangers from members in the supply chain are small, the cumulative effect becomes significant. The aim of this study is to propose an integrated supply chain risk management framework for practitioners that can provide directions for how to evaluate food quality risk in the global supply chain. For validating the proposed model in‐depth, a case study is conducted on a food SME distributor in Central America. The case study investigates how product quality risks are handled according to the proposed framework.

  3. Global water risks and national security: Building resilience (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulwarty, R. S.

    2013-12-01

    The UN defines water security as the capacity of a population to safeguard sustainable access to adequate quantities of acceptable quality water for sustaining livelihoods, human well-being, and socio-economic development, for ensuring protection against water-borne pollution and water-related disasters, and for preserving ecosystems in a climate of peace and political stability. This definition highlights complex and interconnected challenges and underscores the centrality of water for environmental services and human aactivities. Global risks are expressed at the national level. The 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review and the 2010 National Security Strategy identify climate change as likely to trigger outcomes that will threaten U.S. security including how freshwater resources can become a security issue. Impacts will be felt on the National Security interest through water, food and energy security, and critical infrastructure. This recognition focuses the need to consider the rates of change in climate extremes, in the context of more traditional political, economic, and social indicators that inform security analyses. There is a long-standing academic debate over the extent to which resource constraints and environmental challenges lead to inter-state conflict. It is generally recognized that water resources as a security issue to date exists mainly at the substate level and has not led to physical conflict between nation states. In conflict and disaster zones, threats to water security increase through inequitable and difficult access to water supply and related services, which may aggravate existing social fragility, tensions, violence, and conflict. This paper will (1) Outline the dimensions of water security and its links to national security (2) Analyze water footprints and management risks for key basins in the US and around the world, (3) map the link between global water security and national concerns, drawing lessons from the drought of 2012 and elsewhere

  4. Managing Food Quality Risk in Global Supply Chain: A Risk Management Framework

    OpenAIRE

    Arevalo Chavez, Pablo Jose; Seow, Christopher

    2012-01-01

    Today, the food sector is one of the sectors most vulnerable to intentional contamination by debilitating agents [1]. Some cases of contaminated food have indicated that product quality risk is one of the vulnerabilities in the global supply chain. A series of company scandals, affecting reputation and causing the recall of products and increasing costs have hit the food industry. The obvious problem is that even a minor incident in one part of the chain can have disastrous effects on other p...

  5. Research Synthesis Methods in an Age of Globalized Risks: Lessons from the Global Burden of Foodborne Disease Expert Elicitation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hald, Tine; Angulo, Fred; Bin Hamzah, Wan Mansor

    2016-01-01

    We live in an age that increasingly calls for national or regional management of global risks. This article discusses the contributions that expert elicitation can bring to efforts to manage global risks and identifies challenges faced in conducting expert elicitation at this scale. In doing so...... it draws on lessons learned from conducting an expert elicitation as part of the World Health Organizations (WHO) initiative to estimate the global burden of foodborne disease; a study commissioned by the Foodborne Disease Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG). Expert elicitation is designed to fill gaps...

  6. Elder Abuse: Global Situation, Risk Factors, and Prevention Strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pillemer, Karl; Burnes, David; Riffin, Catherine; Lachs, Mark S

    2016-04-01

    Elder mistreatment is now recognized internationally as a pervasive and growing problem, urgently requiring the attention of health care systems, social welfare agencies, policymakers, and the general public. In this article, we provide an overview of global issues in the field of elder abuse, with a focus on prevention. This article provides a scoping review of key issues in the field from an international perspective. By drawing primarily on population-based studies, this scoping review provided a more valid and reliable synthesis of current knowledge about prevalence and risk factors than has been available. Despite the lack of scientifically rigorous intervention research on elder abuse, the review also identified 5 promising strategies for prevention. The findings highlight a growing consensus across studies regarding the extent and causes of elder mistreatment, as well as the urgent need for efforts to make elder mistreatment prevention programs more effective and evidence based. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  7. Flood damage curves for consistent global risk assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Moel, Hans; Huizinga, Jan; Szewczyk, Wojtek

    2016-04-01

    Assessing potential damage of flood events is an important component in flood risk management. Determining direct flood damage is commonly done using depth-damage curves, which denote the flood damage that would occur at specific water depths per asset or land-use class. Many countries around the world have developed flood damage models using such curves which are based on analysis of past flood events and/or on expert judgement. However, such damage curves are not available for all regions, which hampers damage assessments in those regions. Moreover, due to different methodologies employed for various damage models in different countries, damage assessments cannot be directly compared with each other, obstructing also supra-national flood damage assessments. To address these problems, a globally consistent dataset of depth-damage curves has been developed. This dataset contains damage curves depicting percent of damage as a function of water depth as well as maximum damage values for a variety of assets and land use classes (i.e. residential, commercial, agriculture). Based on an extensive literature survey concave damage curves have been developed for each continent, while differentiation in flood damage between countries is established by determining maximum damage values at the country scale. These maximum damage values are based on construction cost surveys from multinational construction companies, which provide a coherent set of detailed building cost data across dozens of countries. A consistent set of maximum flood damage values for all countries was computed using statistical regressions with socio-economic World Development Indicators from the World Bank. Further, based on insights from the literature survey, guidance is also given on how the damage curves and maximum damage values can be adjusted for specific local circumstances, such as urban vs. rural locations, use of specific building material, etc. This dataset can be used for consistent supra

  8. Which part of a short, global risk assessment, the Risk Instrument for Screening in the Community, predicts adverse healthcare outcomes?

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    O’Caoimh, Rónán

    2015-01-01

    The Risk Instrument for Screening in the Community (RISC) is a short, global risk assessment to identify community-dwelling older adults’ one-year risk of institutionalisation, hospitalisation, and death. We investigated the contribution that the three components of the RISC (\

  9. The process of developing policy based on global environmental risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisk, D.J.

    1995-01-01

    A brief presentation is given on developing policy based on a global environmental risk assessment. The author looks at the global warming issue as if it were a formal problem in risk assessment. He uses that framework to make one or two suggestions as to how the interaction of policy and research might evolve as the climate convention progresses

  10. Global Risk Diversification: An Empirical Investigation From The U. S. Perspective

    OpenAIRE

    H. Christine Hsu

    2011-01-01

    The case for global risk diversification has been built on correlations between the U.S. and international stock markets. Now that we witness how tightly the world stock markets are correlated, especially after the global financial crisis of 2008-2009, does it still make sense to diversify globally? Can the investments in global equity portfolios be protected in todays volatile markets? These questions have preoccupied a growing number of portfolio managers in recent years, as well as many of...

  11. A global overview of risk management of the DOE complex

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alesso, H.P.; Majumdar, K.C.

    1993-01-01

    No endeavor is risk-fire and as we realize the inherent risks in society, our only viable solution is to manage the risk. Application of an integrated risk management program of a large technological system like the DOE complex is a difficult, task; but it is the only rational means to optimize the risk-benefit equation. An effective risk management culture-within the DOE complex will in the long run, ensure a consistent response to mitigate identified risks. An effective risk management program provides responsible administrative planning and logical application of the best technical analyses. It requires the involvement of all personnel. Our objective in this paper is to point out broad perspectives that raise concerns about future DOE ask management issues and to suggest some possible remedies

  12. The Functions of Sourcing Intermediaries in Global Supply Risk Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vedel, Mette; Ellegaard, Chris

    The aim of this work-in-progress paper is to uncover the supply risk management functions performed by sourcing intermediaries. The purchasing and supply chain management literature, including the part of it concerned with supply risk, pays little attention to sourcing intermediaries....... But the fields of marketing and international business have investigated the intermediary including its high supply risk reducing potentials, suggesting that this supply chain entity may be highly relevant to supply risk management. In order to get a better understanding of the supply risk reducing properties...... of sourcing intermediaries, we perform a study of the Danish clothing industry. The study incorporate interviews across a range of functions and companies in this industry including retailers, producers, suppliers, and various types of intermediaries. We contribute by coupling the supply risk management...

  13. Global Variance Risk Premium and Forex Return Predictability

    OpenAIRE

    Aloosh, Arash

    2014-01-01

    In a long-run risk model with stochastic volatility and frictionless markets, I express expected forex returns as a function of consumption growth variances and stock variance risk premiums (VRPs)—the difference between the risk-neutral and statistical expectations of market return variation. This provides a motivation for using the forward-looking information available in stock market volatility indices to predict forex returns. Empirically, I find that stock VRPs predict forex returns at a ...

  14. Recursive inter-generational utility in global climate risk modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Minh, Ha-Duong [Centre International de Recherche sur l' Environnement et le Developpement (CIRED-CNRS), 75 - Paris (France); Treich, N. [Institut National de Recherches Agronomiques (INRA-LEERNA), 31 - Toulouse (France)

    2003-07-01

    This paper distinguishes relative risk aversion and resistance to inter-temporal substitution in climate risk modeling. Stochastic recursive preferences are introduced in a stylized numeric climate-economy model using preliminary IPCC 1998 scenarios. It shows that higher risk aversion increases the optimal carbon tax. Higher resistance to inter-temporal substitution alone has the same effect as increasing the discount rate, provided that the risk is not too large. We discuss implications of these findings for the debate upon discounting and sustainability under uncertainty. (author)

  15. OPPORTUNITIES AND RISKS OF GLOBALIZATION IN RURAL AREAS. CASE STUDY: BOTOSANI COUNTY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria-Simona Cuciureanu

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The global economy plays an important role in the development of a region or a county/district as it promotes the exploitation of resources and space in a logical and rational manner. The trend of global economic uniformity allows opportunities and risks to Botoșani County since globalization involves economic development and rising living standards, but loss of cultural values, traditions and customs. The area of study currently confronts with socio-economic and demographic changes that may be addressed by globalization, but at the same time spatial development according to global standards will cause the loss of Botoșani County’s authenticity.

  16. Habitats at Risk. Global Warming and Species Loss in Globally Significant Terrestrial Ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malcolm, J.R.; Liu, Canran; Miller, L.B.; Allnutt, T.; Hansen, L.

    2002-02-01

    In this study, a suite of models of global climate and vegetation change is used to investigate three important global warming-induced threats to the terrestrial Global 200 ecoregions: (1) Invasions by new habitat types (and corresponding loss of original habitat types); (2) Local changes of habitat types; (3) High rates of required species migration. Seven climate models (general circulation models or GCMs) and two vegetation models (BIOME3 and MAPSS) were used to produce 14 impact scenarios under the climate associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, which is expected to occur in less than 100 years. Previous analyses indicated that most of the variation among the impact scenarios was attributable to the particular vegetation model used, hence the authors provide results separately for the two models. The models do not provide information on biodiversity per se, but instead simulate current and future potential distributions of major vegetation types (biomes) such as tundra and broadleaf tropical rain forest

  17. Rationale and design of INTERSTROKE: a global case-control study of risk factors for stroke

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    O'Donnell, M; Serpault, Damien Xavier; Diener, C

    2010-01-01

    Stroke is a major global health problem. It is the third leading cause of death and the leading cause of adult disability. INTERHEART, a global case-control study of acute myocardial infarction in 52 countries (29,972 participants), identified nine modifiable risk factors that accounted for >90% ...

  18. Risk analysis reveals global hotspots for marine debris ingestion by sea turtles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schuyler, Qamar A.; Wilcox, Chris; Townsend, Kathy A.; Wedemeyer-Strombel, Kathryn R.; Balazs, George; van Sebille, Erik|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304831921; Hardesty, Britta Denise

    2016-01-01

    Plastic marine debris pollution is rapidly becoming one of the critical environmental concerns facing wildlife in the 21st century. Here we present a risk analysis for plastic ingestion by sea turtles on a global scale. We combined global marine plastic distributions based on ocean drifter data with

  19. A framework for assessing global change risks to forest carbon stocks in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; Karin L. Riley; Christopher M. Oswalt; Susan J. Crocker; Gary W. Yohe

    2013-01-01

    Among terrestrial environments, forests are not only the largest long-term sink of atmospheric carbon (C), but are also susceptible to global change themselves, with potential consequences including alterations of C cycles and potential C emission. To inform global change risk assessment of forest C across large spatial/temporal scales, this study constructed and...

  20. Coping with global environmental change, disasters and security: threats, challenges, vulnerabilities and risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brauch, H.G.; Oswald Spring, Ú.; Mesjasz, C.; Grin, J.; Kameri-Mbote, P.; Chourou, B.; Dunay, P.; Birkmann, J.

    2011-01-01

    This policy-focused Global Environmental and Human Security Handbook for the Anthropo-cene (GEHSHA) addresses new security threats, challenges, vulnerabilities and risks posed by global environmental change and disasters. In 6 forewords, 5 preface essays 95 peer reviewed chapcountries analyse in 10

  1. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forouzanfar, Mohammad H.; Alexander, Lily; Anderson, H. Ross

    2015-01-01

    Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the fi rst of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantifi cation, particularly of modifi able risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for ...

  2. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Forouzanfar, M.H.; Alexander, L.; Ross Anderson, H.; Geleijnse, J.M.

    2015-01-01

    Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for

  3. What can'(t) we do with global flood risk models?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, P.; Jongman, B.; Salamon, P.; Simpson, A.; Bates, P. D.; de Groeve, T.; Muis, S.; Coughlan, E.; Rudari, R.; Trigg, M. A.; Winsemius, H.

    2015-12-01

    Global flood risk models are now a reality. Initially, their development was driven by a demand from users for first-order global assessments to identify risk hotspots. Relentless upward trends in flood damage over the last decade have enhanced interest in such assessments. The adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage Associated with Climate Change Impacts have made these efforts even more essential. As a result, global flood risk models are being used more and more in practice, by an increasingly large number of practitioners and decision-makers. However, they clearly have their limits compared to local models. To address these issues, a team of scientists and practitioners recently came together at the Global Flood Partnership meeting to critically assess the question 'What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?'. The results of this dialogue (Ward et al., 2013) will be presented, opening a discussion on similar broader initiatives at the science-policy interface in other natural hazards. In this contribution, examples are provided of successful applications of global flood risk models in practice (for example together with the World Bank, Red Cross, and UNISDR), and limitations and gaps between user 'wish-lists' and model capabilities are discussed. Finally, a research agenda is presented for addressing these limitations and reducing the gaps. Ward, P.J. et al., 2015. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2742.

  4. Global Credit Risk: World, Country and Industry Factors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schwaab, B.; Koopman, S.J.; Lucas, A.

    2017-01-01

    We investigate the dynamic properties of systematic default risk conditions for firms in different countries, industries and rating groups. We use a high-dimensional nonlinear non-Gaussian state-space model to estimate common components in corporate defaults in a 41 country samples between 1980:Q1

  5. Global Production Planning Process considering the Supply Risk of Overseas Manufacturing Sites

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hosang Jung

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Although global manufacturers can produce most of their final products in local plants, they need to source components or parts from desirable overseas manufacturing partners at low cost in order to fulfill customer orders. In this global manufacturing environment, capacity information for planning is usually imprecise owing to the various risks of overseas plants (e.g., foreign governments’ policies and labor stability. It is therefore not easy for decision-makers to generate a global production plan showing the production amounts at local plants and overseas manufacturing facilities operated by manufacturing partners. In this paper, we present a new global production planning process considering the supply risk of overseas manufacturing sites. First, local experts estimate the supply capacity of an overseas plant using their judgment to determine when the risk could occur and how large the risk impact would be. Next, we run a global production planning model with the estimated supply capacities. The proposed process systematically adopts the qualitative judgments of local experts in the global production planning process and thus can provide companies with a realistic global production plan. We demonstrate the applicability of the proposed process with a real world case.

  6. Global obesity: trends, risk factors and policy implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malik, Vasanti S; Willett, Walter C; Hu, Frank B

    2013-01-01

    The worldwide increase in obesity and related chronic diseases has largely been driven by global trade liberalization, economic growth and rapid urbanization. These factors continue to fuel dramatic changes in living environments, diets and lifestyles in ways that promote positive energy balance. Nutritional transitions in low-income and middle-income countries are typically characterized by increases in the consumption of animal fat and protein, refined grains, and added sugar. This change is coupled with reductions in physical activity owing to more mechanized and technologically driven lifestyles. Given the high costs of obesity and comorbidities in terms of health-care expenditure and quality of life, prevention strategies are paramount, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries that must manage coexisting infectious diseases and undernutrition in addition to the obesity epidemic. As countries become increasingly urbanized, undernutrition and obesity can exist side by side within the same country, community or household, which is a particular challenge for health systems with limited resources. Owing to the scope and complexity of the obesity epidemic, prevention strategies and policies across multiple levels are needed in order to have a measurable effect. Changes should include high-level global policies from the international community and coordinated efforts by governments, organizations, communities and individuals to positively influence behavioural change.

  7. Global oil risks in the early 21st century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fantazzini, Dean; Höök, Mikael; Angelantoni, André

    2011-01-01

    The Deepwater Horizon incident demonstrated that most of the oil left is deep offshore or in other difficult to reach locations. Moreover, obtaining the oil remaining in currently producing reservoirs requires additional equipment and technology that comes at a higher price in both capital and energy. In this regard, the physical limitations on producing the ever-increasing quantities of oil are highlighted as well as the possibility of the peak of production occurring this decade. The economics of oil supply and demand are also briefly discussed showing why the available supply is basically fixed in the short to medium term. Also, an alarm bell for economic recessions is shown to be when energy takes a disproportionate amount of total consumer expenditures. In this context, risk mitigation practices in government and business are called for. As for the former, early education of the citizenry of the risk of economic contraction is a prudent policy to minimize potential future social discord. As for the latter, all business operations should be examined with the aim of building in resilience and preparing for a scenario in which capital and energy are much more expensive than in the business-as-usual one. - Highlights: ► Review of the physical background to peak oil and current oil situation. ► Economics of oil supply and demand are examined to identify imminent challenges. ► Investigation of the financial and energy transition risks associated with peak oil. ► Oil scarcity and price volatility induce certain governmental and business risks. ► General risk mitigation is vital and peak oil preparations should be undertaken.

  8. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Forouzanfar, Mohammad H; Alexander, Lily; Anderson, H Ross; Bachman, Victoria F; Biryukov, Stan; Brauer, Michael; Burnett, Richard; Casey, Daniel; Coates, Matthew M; Cohen, Aaron; Delwiche, Kristen; Estep, Kara; Frostad, Joseph J; Kc, Astha; Kyu, Hmwe H; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar; Ng, Marie; Slepak, Erica Leigh; Thomas, Bernadette A; Wagner, Joseph; Aasvang, Gunn Marit; Abbafati, Cristiana; Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu; Abd-Allah, Foad; Abera, Semaw F; Aboyans, Victor; Abraham, Biju; Abraham, Jerry Puthenpurakal; Abubakar, Ibrahim; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M E; Aburto, Tania C; Achoki, Tom; Adelekan, Ademola; Adofo, Koranteng; Adou, Arsène K; Adsuar, José C; Afshin, Ashkan; Agardh, Emilie E; Al Khabouri, Mazin J; Al Lami, Faris H; Alam, Sayed Saidul; Alasfoor, Deena; Albittar, Mohammed I; Alegretti, Miguel A; Aleman, Alicia V; Alemu, Zewdie A; Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael; Alhabib, Samia; Ali, Raghib; Ali, Mohammed K; Alla, François; Allebeck, Peter; Allen, Peter J; Alsharif, Ubai; Alvarez, Elena; Alvis-Guzman, Nelson; Amankwaa, Adansi A; Amare, Azmeraw T; Ameh, Emmanuel A; Ameli, Omid; Amini, Heresh; Ammar, Walid; Anderson, Benjamin O; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T; Anwari, Palwasha; Cunningham, Solveig Argeseanu; Arnlöv, Johan; Arsenijevic, Valentina S Arsic; Artaman, Al; Asghar, Rana J; Assadi, Reza; Atkins, Lydia S; Atkinson, Charles; Avila, Marco A; Awuah, Baffour; Badawi, Alaa; Bahit, Maria C; Bakfalouni, Talal; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Balalla, Shivanthi; Balu, Ravi Kumar; Banerjee, Amitava; Barber, Ryan M; Barker-Collo, Suzanne L; Barquera, Simon; Barregard, Lars; Barrero, Lope H; Barrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh; Basto-Abreu, Ana C; Basu, Arindam; Basu, Sanjay; Basulaiman, Mohammed O; Ruvalcaba, Carolina Batis; Beardsley, Justin; Bedi, Neeraj; Bekele, Tolesa; Bell, Michelle L; Benjet, Corina; Bennett, Derrick A; Benzian, Habib; Bernabé, Eduardo; Beyene, Tariku J; Bhala, Neeraj; Bhalla, Ashish; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A; Bikbov, Boris; Abdulhak, Aref A Bin; Blore, Jed D; Blyth, Fiona M; Bohensky, Megan A; Başara, Berrak Bora; Borges, Guilherme; Bornstein, Natan M; Bose, Dipan; Boufous, Soufiane; Bourne, Rupert R; Brainin, Michael; Brazinova, Alexandra; Breitborde, Nicholas J; Brenner, Hermann; Briggs, Adam D M; Broday, David M; Brooks, Peter M; Bruce, Nigel G; Brugha, Traolach S; Brunekreef, Bert|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/067548180; Buchbinder, Rachelle; Bui, Linh N; Bukhman, Gene; Bulloch, Andrew G; Burch, Michael; Burney, Peter G J; Campos-Nonato, Ismael R; Campuzano, Julio C; Cantoral, Alejandra J; Caravanos, Jack; Cárdenas, Rosario; Cardis, Elisabeth; Carpenter, David O; Caso, Valeria; Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A; Castro, Ruben E; Catalá-López, Ferrán; Cavalleri, Fiorella; Çavlin, Alanur; Chadha, Vineet K; Chang, Jung-Chen; Charlson, Fiona J; Chen, Honglei; Chen, Wanqing; Chen, Zhengming; Chiang, Peggy P; Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Christophi, Costas A; Chuang, Ting-Wu; Chugh, Sumeet S; Cirillo, Massimo; Claßen, Thomas Kd; Colistro, Valentina; Colomar, Mercedes; Colquhoun, Samantha M; Contreras, Alejandra G; Cooper, Cyrus; Cooperrider, Kimberly; Cooper, Leslie T; Coresh, Josef; Courville, Karen J; Criqui, Michael H; Cuevas-Nasu, Lucia; Damsere-Derry, James; Danawi, Hadi; Dandona, Lalit; Dandona, Rakhi; Dargan, Paul I; Davis, Adrian; Davitoiu, Dragos V; Dayama, Anand; de Castro, E Filipa; De la Cruz-Góngora, Vanessa; De Leo, Diego; de Lima, Graça; Degenhardt, Louisa; Del Pozo-Cruz, Borja; Dellavalle, Robert P; Deribe, Kebede; Derrett, Sarah; Jarlais, Don C Des; Dessalegn, Muluken; deVeber, Gabrielle A; Devries, Karen M; Dharmaratne, Samath D; Dherani, Mukesh K; Dicker, Daniel; Ding, Eric L; Dokova, Klara; Dorsey, E Ray; Driscoll, Tim R; Duan, Leilei; Durrani, Adnan M; Ebel, Beth E; Ellenbogen, Richard G; Elshrek, Yousef M; Endres, Matthias; Ermakov, Sergey P; Erskine, Holly E; Eshrati, Babak; Esteghamati, Alireza; Fahimi, Saman; Faraon, Emerito Jose A; Farzadfar, Farshad; Fay, Derek F J; Feigin, Valery L; Feigl, Andrea B; Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad; Ferrari, Alize J; Ferri, Cleusa P; Flaxman, Abraham D; Fleming, Thomas D; Foigt, Nataliya; Foreman, Kyle J; Paleo, Urbano Fra; Franklin, Richard C; Gabbe, Belinda; Gaffikin, Lynne; Gakidou, Emmanuela; Gamkrelidze, Amiran; Gankpé, Fortuné G; Gansevoort, Ron T; García-Guerra, Francisco A; Gasana, Evariste; Geleijnse, Johanna M; Gessner, Bradford D; Gething, Pete; Gibney, Katherine B; Gillum, Richard F; Ginawi, Ibrahim A M; Giroud, Maurice; Giussani, Giorgia; Goenka, Shifalika; Goginashvili, Ketevan; Dantes, Hector Gomez; Gona, Philimon; de Cosio, Teresita Gonzalez; González-Castell, Dinorah; Gotay, Carolyn C; Goto, Atsushi; Gouda, Hebe N; Guerrant, Richard L; Gugnani, Harish C; Guillemin, Francis; Gunnell, David; Gupta, Rahul; Gupta, Rajeev; Gutiérrez, Reyna A; Hafezi-Nejad, Nima; Hagan, Holly; Hagstromer, Maria; Halasa, Yara A; Hamadeh, Randah R; Hammami, Mouhanad; Hankey, Graeme J; Hao, Yuantao; Harb, Hilda L; Haregu, Tilahun Nigatu; Haro, Josep Maria; Havmoeller, Rasmus; Hay, Simon I; Hedayati, Mohammad T; Heredia-Pi, Ileana B; Hernandez, Lucia; Heuton, Kyle R; Heydarpour, Pouria; Hijar, Martha; Hoek, Hans W; Hoffman, Howard J; Hornberger, John C|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304838993; Hosgood, H Dean; Hoy, Damian G; Hsairi, Mohamed; Hu, Guoqing; Hu, Howard; Huang, Cheng; Huang, John J; Hubbell, Bryan J; Huiart, Laetitia; Husseini, Abdullatif; Iannarone, Marissa L; Iburg, Kim M; Idrisov, Bulat T; Ikeda, Nayu; Innos, Kaire; Inoue, Manami; Islami, Farhad; Ismayilova, Samaya; Jacobsen, Kathryn H; Jansen, Henrica A; Jarvis, Deborah L; Jassal, Simerjot K; Jauregui, Alejandra; Jayaraman, Sudha; Jeemon, Panniyammakal; Jensen, Paul N; Jha, Vivekanand; Jiang, Fan; Jiang, Guohong; Jiang, Ying; Jonas, Jost B; Juel, Knud; Kan, Haidong; Roseline, Sidibe S Kany; Karam, Nadim E; Karch, André; Karema, Corine K; Karthikeyan, Ganesan; Kaul, Anil; Kawakami, Norito; Kazi, Dhruv S; Kemp, Andrew H; Kengne, Andre P; Keren, Andre; Khader, Yousef S; Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan; Khan, Ejaz A; Khang, Young-Ho; Khatibzadeh, Shahab; Khonelidze, Irma; Kieling, Christian; Kim, Daniel; Kim, Sungroul; Kim, Yunjin; Kimokoti, Ruth W; Kinfu, Yohannes; Kinge, Jonas M; Kissela, Brett M; Kivipelto, Miia; Knibbs, Luke D; Knudsen, Ann Kristin; Kokubo, Yoshihiro; Kose, M Rifat; Kosen, Soewarta; Kraemer, Alexander; Kravchenko, Michael; Krishnaswami, Sanjay; Kromhout, Hans|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/074385224; Ku, Tiffany; Defo, Barthelemy Kuate; Bicer, Burcu Kucuk; Kuipers, Ernst J; Kulkarni, Chanda; Kulkarni, Veena S; Kumar, G Anil; Kwan, Gene F; Lai, Taavi; Balaji, Arjun Lakshmana; Lalloo, Ratilal; Lallukka, Tea; Lam, Hilton; Lan, Qing; Lansingh, Van C; Larson, Heidi J; Larsson, Anders; Laryea, Dennis O; Lavados, Pablo M; Lawrynowicz, Alicia E; Leasher, Janet L; Lee, Jong-Tae; Leigh, James; Leung, Ricky; Levi, Miriam; Li, Yichong; Li, Yongmei; Liang, Juan; Liang, Xiaofeng; Lim, Stephen S; Lindsay, M Patrice; Lipshultz, Steven E; Liu, Shiwei; Liu, Yang; Lloyd, Belinda K; Logroscino, Giancarlo; London, Stephanie J; Lopez, Nancy; Lortet-Tieulent, Joannie; Lotufo, Paulo A; Lozano, Rafael; Lunevicius, Raimundas; Ma, Jixiang; Ma, Stefan; Machado, Vasco M P; MacIntyre, Michael F; Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos; Mahdi, Abbas A; Majdan, Marek; Malekzadeh, Reza; Mangalam, Srikanth; Mapoma, Christopher C; Marape, Marape; Marcenes, Wagner; Margolis, David J; Margono, Christopher; Marks, Guy B; Martin, Randall V; Marzan, Melvin B; Mashal, Mohammad T; Masiye, Felix; Mason-Jones, Amanda J; Matsushita, Kunihiro; Matzopoulos, Richard; Mayosi, Bongani M; Mazorodze, Tasara T; McKay, Abigail C; McKee, Martin; McLain, Abigail; Meaney, Peter A; Medina, Catalina; Mehndiratta, Man Mohan; Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola; Mekonnen, Wubegzier; Melaku, Yohannes A; Meltzer, Michele; Memish, Ziad A; Mendoza, Walter; Mensah, George A; Meretoja, Atte; Mhimbira, Francis Apolinary; Micha, Renata; Miller, Ted R; Mills, Edward J; Misganaw, Awoke; Mishra, Santosh; Ibrahim, Norlinah Mohamed; Mohammad, Karzan A; Mokdad, Ali H; Mola, Glen L; Monasta, Lorenzo; Hernandez, Julio C Montañez; Montico, Marcella; Moore, Ami R; Morawska, Lidia; Mori, Rintaro; Moschandreas, Joanna; Moturi, Wilkister N; Mozaffarian, Dariush; Mueller, Ulrich O; Mukaigawara, Mitsuru; Mullany, Erin C; Murthy, Kinnari S; Naghavi, Mohsen; Nahas, Ziad; Naheed, Aliya; Naidoo, Kovin S; Naldi, Luigi; Nand, Devina; Nangia, Vinay; Narayan, Km Venkat; Nash, Denis; Neal, Bruce; Nejjari, Chakib; Neupane, Sudan P; Newton, Charles R; Ngalesoni, Frida N; de Dieu Ngirabega, Jean; Nguyen, Grant; Nguyen, Nhung T; Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J; Nisar, Muhammad I; Nogueira, José R; Nolla, Joan M; Nolte, Sandra; Norheim, Ole F; Norman, Rosana E; Norrving, Bo; Nyakarahuka, Luke; Oh, In-Hwan; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Olusanya, Bolajoko O; Omer, Saad B; Opio, John Nelson; Orozco, Ricardo; Pagcatipunan, Rodolfo S; Pain, Amanda W; Pandian, Jeyaraj D; Panelo, Carlo Irwin A; Papachristou, Christina; Park, Eun-Kee; Parry, Charles D; Caicedo, Angel J Paternina; Patten, Scott B; Paul, Vinod K; Pavlin, Boris I; Pearce, Neil; Pedraza, Lilia S; Pedroza, Andrea; Stokic, Ljiljana Pejin; Pekericli, Ayfer; Pereira, David M; Perez-Padilla, Rogelio; Perez-Ruiz, Fernando; Perico, Norberto; Perry, Samuel A L; Pervaiz, Aslam; Pesudovs, Konrad; Peterson, Carrie B; Petzold, Max; Phillips, Michael R; Phua, Hwee Pin; Plass, Dietrich; Poenaru, Dan; Polanczyk, Guilherme V; Polinder, Suzanne; Pond, Constance D; Pope, C Arden; Pope, Daniel; Popova, Svetlana; Pourmalek, Farshad; Powles, John; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj; Prasad, Noela M; Qato, Dima M; Quezada, Amado D; Quistberg, D Alex A; Racapé, Lionel; Rafay, Anwar; Rahimi, Kazem; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa; Rahman, Sajjad Ur; Raju, Murugesan; Rakovac, Ivo; Rana, Saleem M; Rao, Mayuree; Razavi, Homie; Reddy, K Srinath; Refaat, Amany H; Rehm, Jürgen; Remuzzi, Giuseppe; Ribeiro, Antonio L; Riccio, Patricia M; Richardson, Lee; Riederer, Anne; Robinson, Margaret; Roca, Anna; Rodriguez, Alina; Rojas-Rueda, David; Romieu, Isabelle; Ronfani, Luca; Room, Robin; Roy, Nobhojit; Ruhago, George M; Rushton, Lesley; Sabin, Nsanzimana; Sacco, Ralph L; Saha, Sukanta; Sahathevan, Ramesh; Sahraian, Mohammad Ali; Salomon, Joshua A; Salvo, Deborah; Sampson, Uchechukwu K; Sanabria, Juan R; Sanchez, Luz Maria; Sánchez-Pimienta, Tania G; Sanchez-Riera, Lidia; Sandar, Logan; Santos, Itamar S; Sapkota, Amir; Satpathy, Maheswar; Saunders, James E; Sawhney, Monika; Saylan, Mete I; Scarborough, Peter; Schmidt, Jürgen C; Schneider, Ione J C; Schöttker, Ben; Schwebel, David C; Scott, James G; Seedat, Soraya; Sepanlou, Sadaf G; Serdar, Berrin; Servan-Mori, Edson E; Shaddick, Gavin; Shahraz, Saeid; Levy, Teresa Shamah; Shangguan, Siyi; She, Jun; Sheikhbahaei, Sara; Shibuya, Kenji; Shin, Hwashin H; Shinohara, Yukito; Shiri, Rahman; Shishani, Kawkab; Shiue, Ivy; Sigfusdottir, Inga D; Silberberg, Donald H; Simard, Edgar P; Sindi, Shireen; Singh, Abhishek; Singh, Gitanjali M; Singh, Jasvinder A; Skirbekk, Vegard; Sliwa, Karen; Soljak, Michael; Soneji, Samir; Søreide, Kjetil; Soshnikov, Sergey; Sposato, Luciano A; Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T; Stapelberg, Nicolas J C; Stathopoulou, Vasiliki; Steckling, Nadine; Stein, Dan J; Stein, Murray B; Stephens, Natalie; Stöckl, Heidi; Straif, Kurt; Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos; Sturua, Lela; Sunguya, Bruno F; Swaminathan, Soumya; Swaroop, Mamta; Sykes, Bryan L; Tabb, Karen M; Takahashi, Ken; Talongwa, Roberto T; Tandon, Nikhil; Tanne, David; Tanner, Marcel; Tavakkoli, Mohammad; Te Ao, Braden J; Teixeira, Carolina M; Téllez Rojo, Martha M; Terkawi, Abdullah S; Texcalac-Sangrador, José Luis; Thackway, Sarah V; Thomson, Blake; Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L; Thrift, Amanda G; Thurston, George D; Tillmann, Taavi; Tobollik, Myriam; Tonelli, Marcello; Topouzis, Fotis; Towbin, Jeffrey A; Toyoshima, Hideaki; Traebert, Jefferson; Tran, Bach X; Trasande, Leonardo; Trillini, Matias; Trujillo, Ulises; Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala; Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis; Tuzcu, Emin Murat; Uchendu, Uche S; Ukwaja, Kingsley N; Uzun, Selen B; van de Vijver, Steven; Van Dingenen, Rita; van Gool, Coen H; van Os, Jim; Varakin, Yuri Y; Vasankari, Tommi J; Vasconcelos, Ana Maria N; Vavilala, Monica S; Veerman, Lennert J; Velasquez-Melendez, Gustavo; Venketasubramanian, N; Vijayakumar, Lakshmi; Villalpando, Salvador; Violante, Francesco S; Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich; Vollset, Stein Emil; Wagner, Gregory R; Waller, Stephen G; Wallin, Mitchell T; Wan, Xia; Wang, Haidong; Wang, JianLi; Wang, Linhong; Wang, Wenzhi; Wang, Yanping; Warouw, Tati S; Watts, Charlotte H; Weichenthal, Scott; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Weintraub, Robert G; Werdecker, Andrea; Wessells, K Ryan; Westerman, Ronny; Whiteford, Harvey A; Wilkinson, James D; Williams, Hywel C; Williams, Thomas N; Woldeyohannes, Solomon M; Wolfe, Charles D A; Wong, John Q; Woolf, Anthony D; Wright, Jonathan L; Wurtz, Brittany; Xu, Gelin; Yan, Lijing L; Yang, Gonghuan; Yano, Yuichiro; Ye, Pengpeng; Yenesew, Muluken; Yentür, Gökalp K; Yip, Paul; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Yoon, Seok-Jun; Younis, Mustafa Z; Younoussi, Zourkaleini; Yu, Chuanhua; Zaki, Maysaa E; Zhao, Yong; Zheng, Yingfeng; Zhou, Maigeng; Zhu, Jun; Zhu, Shankuan; Zou, Xiaonong; Zunt, Joseph R; Lopez, Alan D; Vos, Theo; Murray, Christopher J

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for

  9. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Forouzanfar, Mohammad H.; Alexander, Lily; Anderson, H. Ross; Bachman, Victoria F.; Biryukov, Stan; Brauer, Michael; Burnett, Richard; Casey, Daniel; Coates, Matthew M.; Cohen, Aaron; Delwiche, Kristen; Estep, Kara; Frostad, Joseph J.; Astha, K. C.; Kyu, Hmwe H.; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar; Ng, Marie; Slepak, Erica Leigh; Thomas, Bernadette A.; Wagner, Joseph; Aasvang, Gunn Marit; Abbafati, Cristiana; Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu; Abd-Allah, Foad; Abera, Semaw F.; Aboyans, Victor; Abraham, Biju; Abraham, Jerry Puthenpurakal; Abubakar, Ibrahim; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M. E.; Aburto, Tania C.; Achoki, Tom; Adelekan, Ademola; Adofo, Koranteng; Adou, Arsene K.; Adsuar, Jose C.; Afshin, Ashkan; Agardh, Emilie E.; Al Khabouri, Mazin J.; Al Lami, Faris H.; Alam, Sayed Saidul; Alasfoor, Deena; Albittar, Mohammed I.; Alegretti, Miguel A.; Aleman, Alicia V.; Alemu, Zewdie A.; Amare, Azmeraw T.; Gansevoort, Ron T.; Hoek, Hans W.; Liu, Yang

    2015-01-01

    Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for

  10. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Forouzanfar, Mohammad H.; Alexander, Lily; Anderson, H. Ross; Bachman, Victoria F.; Biryukov, Stan; Brauer, Michael; Burnett, Richard; Casey, Daniel; Coates, Matthew M.; Cohen, Aaron; Delwiche, Kristen; Estep, Kara; Frostad, Joseph J.; Astha, K. C.; Kyu, Hmwe H.; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar; Ng, Marie; Slepak, Erica Leigh; Thomas, Bernadette A.; Wagner, Joseph; Aasvang, Gunn Marit; Abbafati, Cristiana; Abbasoglu Ozgoren, Ayse; Abd-Allah, Foad; Abera, Semaw F.; Aboyans, Victor; Abraham, Biju; Abraham, Jerry Puthenpurakal; Abubakar, Ibrahim; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M. E.; Aburto, Tania C.; Achoki, Tom; Adelekan, Ademola; Adofo, Koranteng; Adou, Arsène K.; Adsuar, José C.; Afshin, Ashkan; Agardh, Emilie E.; Al Khabouri, Mazin J.; Al Lami, Faris H.; Alam, Sayed Saidul; Alasfoor, Deena; Albittar, Mohammed I.; Alegretti, Miguel A.; Aleman, Alicia V.; Alemu, Zewdie A.; Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael; Alhabib, Samia; Ali, Raghib; Ali, Mohammed K.; Alla, François; Allebeck, Peter; Allen, Peter J.; Alsharif, Ubai; Alvarez, Elena; Alvis-Guzman, Nelson; Amankwaa, Adansi A.; Amare, Azmeraw T.; Ameh, Emmanuel A.; Ameli, Omid; Amini, Heresh; Ammar, Walid; Anderson, Benjamin O.; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T.; Anwari, Palwasha; Argeseanu Cunningham, Solveig; Arnlöv, Johan; Arsenijevic, Valentina S. Arsic; Artaman, Al; Asghar, Rana J.; Assadi, Reza; Atkins, Lydia S.; Atkinson, Charles; Avila, Marco A.; Awuah, Baffour; Badawi, Alaa; Bahit, Maria C.; Bakfalouni, Talal; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Balalla, Shivanthi; Balu, Ravi Kumar; Banerjee, Amitava; Barber, Ryan M.; Barker-Collo, Suzanne L.; Barquera, Simon; Barregard, Lars; Barrero, Lope H.; Barrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh; Basto-Abreu, Ana C.; Basu, Arindam; Basu, Sanjay; Basulaiman, Mohammed O.; Batis Ruvalcaba, Carolina; Beardsley, Justin; Bedi, Neeraj; Bekele, Tolesa; Bell, Michelle L.; Benjet, Corina; Bennett, Derrick A.; Benzian, Habib; Bernabé, Eduardo; Beyene, Tariku J.; Bhala, Neeraj; Bhalla, Ashish; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A.; Bikbov, Boris; Bin Abdulhak, Aref A.; Blore, Jed D.; Blyth, Fiona M.; Bohensky, Megan A.; Bora Başara, Berrak; Borges, Guilherme; Bornstein, Natan M.; Bose, Dipan; Boufous, Soufiane; Bourne, Rupert R.; Brainin, Michael; Brazinova, Alexandra; Breitborde, Nicholas J.; Brenner, Hermann; Briggs, Adam D. M.; Broday, David M.; Brooks, Peter M.; Bruce, Nigel G.; Brugha, Traolach S.; Brunekreef, Bert; Buchbinder, Rachelle; Bui, Linh N.; Bukhman, Gene; Bulloch, Andrew G.; Burch, Michael; Burney, Peter G. J.; Campos-Nonato, Ismael R.; Campuzano, Julio C.; Cantoral, Alejandra J.; Caravanos, Jack; Cárdenas, Rosario; Cardis, Elisabeth; Carpenter, David O.; Caso, Valeria; Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A.; Castro, Ruben E.; Catalá-López, Ferrán; Cavalleri, Fiorella; Çavlin, Alanur; Chadha, Vineet K.; Chang, Jung-Chen; Charlson, Fiona J.; Chen, Honglei; Chen, Wanqing; Chen, Zhengming; Chiang, Peggy P.; Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Christophi, Costas A.; Chuang, Ting-Wu; Chugh, Sumeet S.; Cirillo, Massimo; Claßen, Thomas K. D.; Colistro, Valentina; Colomar, Mercedes; Colquhoun, Samantha M.; Contreras, Alejandra G.; Cooper, Cyrus; Cooperrider, Kimberly; Cooper, Leslie T.; Coresh, Josef; Courville, Karen J.; Criqui, Michael H.; Cuevas-Nasu, Lucia; Damsere-Derry, James; Danawi, Hadi; Dandona, Lalit; Dandona, Rakhi; Dargan, Paul I.; Davis, Adrian; Davitoiu, Dragos V.; Dayama, Anand; de Castro, E. Filipa; de la Cruz-Góngora, Vanessa; de Leo, Diego; de Lima, Graça; Degenhardt, Louisa; del Pozo-Cruz, Borja; Dellavalle, Robert P.; Deribe, Kebede; Derrett, Sarah; des Jarlais, Don C.; Dessalegn, Muluken; deVeber, Gabrielle A.; Devries, Karen M.; Dharmaratne, Samath D.; Dherani, Mukesh K.; Dicker, Daniel; Ding, Eric L.; Dokova, Klara; Dorsey, E. Ray; Driscoll, Tim R.; Duan, Leilei; Durrani, Adnan M.; Ebel, Beth E.; Ellenbogen, Richard G.; Elshrek, Yousef M.; Endres, Matthias; Ermakov, Sergey P.; Erskine, Holly E.; Eshrati, Babak; Esteghamati, Alireza; Fahimi, Saman; Faraon, Emerito Jose A.; Farzadfar, Farshad; Fay, Derek F. J.; Feigin, Valery L.; Feigl, Andrea B.; Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad; Ferrari, Alize J.; Ferri, Cleusa P.; Flaxman, Abraham D.; Fleming, Thomas D.; Foigt, Nataliya; Foreman, Kyle J.; Paleo, Urbano Fra; Franklin, Richard C.; Gabbe, Belinda; Gaffikin, Lynne; Gakidou, Emmanuela; Gamkrelidze, Amiran; Gankpé, Fortuné G.; Gansevoort, Ron T.; García-Guerra, Francisco A.; Gasana, Evariste; Geleijnse, Johanna M.; Gessner, Bradford D.; Gething, Pete; Gibney, Katherine B.; Gillum, Richard F.; Ginawi, Ibrahim A. M.; Giroud, Maurice; Giussani, Giorgia; Goenka, Shifalika; Goginashvili, Ketevan; Gomez Dantes, Hector; Gona, Philimon; Gonzalez de Cosio, Teresita; González-Castell, Dinorah; Gotay, Carolyn C.; Goto, Atsushi; Gouda, Hebe N.; Guerrant, Richard L.; Gugnani, Harish C.; Guillemin, Francis; Gunnell, David; Gupta, Rahul; Gupta, Rajeev; Gutiérrez, Reyna A.; Hafezi-Nejad, Nima; Hagan, Holly; Hagstromer, Maria; Halasa, Yara A.; Hamadeh, Randah R.; Hammami, Mouhanad; Hankey, Graeme J.; Hao, Yuantao; Harb, Hilda L.; Haregu, Tilahun Nigatu; Haro, Josep Maria; Havmoeller, Rasmus; Hay, Simon I.; Hedayati, Mohammad T.; Heredia-Pi, Ileana B.; Hernandez, Lucia; Heuton, Kyle R.; Heydarpour, Pouria; Hijar, Martha; Hoek, Hans W.; Hoffman, Howard J.; Hornberger, John C.; Hosgood, H. Dean; Hoy, Damian G.; Hsairi, Mohamed; Hu, Guoqing; Hu, Howard; Huang, Cheng; Huang, John J.; Hubbell, Bryan J.; Huiart, Laetitia; Husseini, Abdullatif; Iannarone, Marissa L.; Iburg, Kim M.; Idrisov, Bulat T.; Ikeda, Nayu; Innos, Kaire; Inoue, Manami; Islami, Farhad; Ismayilova, Samaya; Jacobsen, Kathryn H.; Jansen, Henrica A.; Jarvis, Deborah L.; Jassal, Simerjot K.; Jauregui, Alejandra; Jayaraman, Sudha; Jeemon, Panniyammakal; Jensen, Paul N.; Jha, Vivekanand; Jiang, Fan; Jiang, Guohong; Jiang, Ying; Jonas, Jost B.; Juel, Knud; Kan, Haidong; Kany Roseline, Sidibe S.; Karam, Nadim E.; Karch, André; Karema, Corine K.; Karthikeyan, Ganesan; Kaul, Anil; Kawakami, Norito; Kazi, Dhruv S.; Kemp, Andrew H.; Kengne, Andre P.; Keren, Andre; Khader, Yousef S.; Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan; Khan, Ejaz A.; Khang, Young-Ho; Khatibzadeh, Shahab; Khonelidze, Irma; Kieling, Christian; Kim, Daniel; Kim, Sungroul; Kim, Yunjin; Kimokoti, Ruth W.; Kinfu, Yohannes; Kinge, Jonas M.; Kissela, Brett M.; Kivipelto, Miia; Knibbs, Luke D.; Knudsen, Ann Kristin; Kokubo, Yoshihiro; Kose, M. Rifat; Kosen, Soewarta; Kraemer, Alexander; Kravchenko, Michael; Krishnaswami, Sanjay; Kromhout, Hans; Ku, Tiffany; Kuate Defo, Barthelemy; Kucuk Bicer, Burcu; Kuipers, Ernst J.; Kulkarni, Chanda; Kulkarni, Veena S.; Kumar, G. Anil; Kwan, Gene F.; Lai, Taavi; Lakshmana Balaji, Arjun; Lalloo, Ratilal; Lallukka, Tea; Lam, Hilton; Lan, Qing; Lansingh, Van C.; Larson, Heidi J.; Larsson, Anders; Laryea, Dennis O.; Lavados, Pablo M.; Lawrynowicz, Alicia E.; Leasher, Janet L.; Lee, Jong-Tae; Leigh, James; Leung, Ricky; Levi, Miriam; Li, Yichong; Li, Yongmei; Liang, Juan; Liang, Xiaofeng; Lim, Stephen S.; Lindsay, M. Patrice; Lipshultz, Steven E.; Liu, Shiwei; Liu, Yang; Lloyd, Belinda K.; Logroscino, Giancarlo; London, Stephanie J.; Lopez, Nancy; Lortet-Tieulent, Joannie; Lotufo, Paulo A.; Lozano, Rafael; Lunevicius, Raimundas; Ma, Jixiang; Ma, Stefan; Machado, Vasco M. P.; MacIntyre, Michael F.; Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos; Mahdi, Abbas A.; Majdan, Marek; Malekzadeh, Reza; Mangalam, Srikanth; Mapoma, Christopher C.; Marape, Marape; Marcenes, Wagner; Margolis, David J.; Margono, Christopher; Marks, Guy B.; Martin, Randall V.; Marzan, Melvin B.; Mashal, Mohammad T.; Masiye, Felix; Mason-Jones, Amanda J.; Matsushita, Kunihiro; Matzopoulos, Richard; Mayosi, Bongani M.; Mazorodze, Tasara T.; McKay, Abigail C.; McKee, Martin; McLain, Abigail; Meaney, Peter A.; Medina, Catalina; Mehndiratta, Man Mohan; Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola; Mekonnen, Wubegzier; Melaku, Yohannes A.; Meltzer, Michele; Memish, Ziad A.; Mendoza, Walter; Mensah, George A.; Meretoja, Atte; Mhimbira, Francis Apolinary; Micha, Renata; Miller, Ted R.; Mills, Edward J.; Misganaw, Awoke; Mishra, Santosh; Mohamed Ibrahim, Norlinah; Mohammad, Karzan A.; Mokdad, Ali H.; Mola, Glen L.; Monasta, Lorenzo; Montañez Hernandez, Julio C.; Montico, Marcella; Moore, Ami R.; Morawska, Lidia; Mori, Rintaro; Moschandreas, Joanna; Moturi, Wilkister N.; Mozaffarian, Dariush; Mueller, Ulrich O.; Mukaigawara, Mitsuru; Mullany, Erin C.; Murthy, Kinnari S.; Naghavi, Mohsen; Nahas, Ziad; Naheed, Aliya; Naidoo, Kovin S.; Naldi, Luigi; Nand, Devina; Nangia, Vinay; Narayan, K. M. Venkat; Nash, Denis; Neal, Bruce; Nejjari, Chakib; Neupane, Sudan P.; Newton, Charles R.; Ngalesoni, Frida N.; Ngirabega, Jean de Dieu; Nguyen, Grant; Nguyen, Nhung T.; Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J.; Nisar, Muhammad I.; Nogueira, José R.; Nolla, Joan M.; Nolte, Sandra; Norheim, Ole F.; Norman, Rosana E.; Norrving, Bo; Nyakarahuka, Luke; Oh, In-Hwan; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Olusanya, Bolajoko O.; Omer, Saad B.; Opio, John Nelson; Orozco, Ricardo; Pagcatipunan, Rodolfo S.; Pain, Amanda W.; Pandian, Jeyaraj D.; Panelo, Carlo Irwin A.; Papachristou, Christina; Park, Eun-Kee; Parry, Charles D.; Paternina Caicedo, Angel J.; Patten, Scott B.; Paul, Vinod K.; Pavlin, Boris I.; Pearce, Neil; Pedraza, Lilia S.; Pedroza, Andrea; Pejin Stokic, Ljiljana; Pekericli, Ayfer; Pereira, David M.; Perez-Padilla, Rogelio; Perez-Ruiz, Fernando; Perico, Norberto; Perry, Samuel A. L.; Pervaiz, Aslam; Pesudovs, Konrad; Peterson, Carrie B.; Petzold, Max; Phillips, Michael R.; Phua, Hwee Pin; Plass, Dietrich; Poenaru, Dan; Polanczyk, Guilherme V.; Polinder, Suzanne; Pond, Constance D.; Pope, C. Arden; Pope, Daniel; Popova, Svetlana; Pourmalek, Farshad; Powles, John; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj; Prasad, Noela M.; Qato, Dima M.; Quezada, Amado D.; Quistberg, D. Alex A.; Racapé, Lionel; Rafay, Anwar; Rahimi, Kazem; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa; Rahman, Sajjad Ur; Raju, Murugesan; Rakovac, Ivo; Rana, Saleem M.; Rao, Mayuree; Razavi, Homie; Reddy, K. Srinath; Refaat, Amany H.; Rehm, Jürgen; Remuzzi, Giuseppe; Ribeiro, Antonio L.; Riccio, Patricia M.; Richardson, Lee; Riederer, Anne; Robinson, Margaret; Roca, Anna; Rodriguez, Alina; Rojas-Rueda, David; Romieu, Isabelle; Ronfani, Luca; Room, Robin; Roy, Nobhojit; Ruhago, George M.; Rushton, Lesley; Sabin, Nsanzimana; Sacco, Ralph L.; Saha, Sukanta; Sahathevan, Ramesh; Sahraian, Mohammad Ali; Salomon, Joshua A.; Salvo, Deborah; Sampson, Uchechukwu K.; Sanabria, Juan R.; Sanchez, Luz Maria; Sánchez-Pimienta, Tania G.; Sanchez-Riera, Lidia; Sandar, Logan; Santos, Itamar S.; Sapkota, Amir; Satpathy, Maheswar; Saunders, James E.; Sawhney, Monika; Saylan, Mete I.; Scarborough, Peter; Schmidt, Jürgen C.; Schneider, Ione J. C.; Schöttker, Ben; Schwebel, David C.; Scott, James G.; Seedat, Soraya; Sepanlou, Sadaf G.; Serdar, Berrin; Servan-Mori, Edson E.; Shaddick, Gavin; Shahraz, Saeid; Levy, Teresa Shamah; Shangguan, Siyi; She, Jun; Sheikhbahaei, Sara; Shibuya, Kenji; Shin, Hwashin H.; Shinohara, Yukito; Shiri, Rahman; Shishani, Kawkab; Shiue, Ivy; Sigfusdottir, Inga D.; Silberberg, Donald H.; Simard, Edgar P.; Sindi, Shireen; Singh, Abhishek; Singh, Gitanjali M.; Singh, Jasvinder A.; Skirbekk, Vegard; Sliwa, Karen; Soljak, Michael; Soneji, Samir; Søreide, Kjetil; Soshnikov, Sergey; Sposato, Luciano A.; Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T.; Stapelberg, Nicolas J. C.; Stathopoulou, Vasiliki; Steckling, Nadine; Stein, Dan J.; Stein, Murray B.; Stephens, Natalie; Stöckl, Heidi; Straif, Kurt; Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos; Sturua, Lela; Sunguya, Bruno F.; Swaminathan, Soumya; Swaroop, Mamta; Sykes, Bryan L.; Tabb, Karen M.; Takahashi, Ken; Talongwa, Roberto T.; Tandon, Nikhil; Tanne, David; Tanner, Marcel; Tavakkoli, Mohammad; te Ao, Braden J.; Teixeira, Carolina M.; Téllez Rojo, Martha M.; Terkawi, Abdullah S.; Texcalac-Sangrador, José Luis; Thackway, Sarah V.; Thomson, Blake; Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L.; Thrift, Amanda G.; Thurston, George D.; Tillmann, Taavi; Tobollik, Myriam; Tonelli, Marcello; Topouzis, Fotis; Towbin, Jeffrey A.; Toyoshima, Hideaki; Traebert, Jefferson; Tran, Bach X.; Trasande, Leonardo; Trillini, Matias; Trujillo, Ulises; Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala; Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis; Tuzcu, Emin Murat; Uchendu, Uche S.; Ukwaja, Kingsley N.; Uzun, Selen B.; van de Vijver, Steven; van Dingenen, Rita; van Gool, Coen H.; van Os, Jim; Varakin, Yuri Y.; Vasankari, Tommi J.; Vasconcelos, Ana Maria N.; Vavilala, Monica S.; Veerman, Lennert J.; Velasquez-Melendez, Gustavo; Venketasubramanian, N.; Vijayakumar, Lakshmi; Villalpando, Salvador; Violante, Francesco S.; Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich; Vollset, Stein Emil; Wagner, Gregory R.; Waller, Stephen G.; Wallin, Mitchell T.; Wan, Xia; Wang, Haidong; Wang, JianLi; Wang, Linhong; Wang, Wenzhi; Wang, Yanping; Warouw, Tati S.; Watts, Charlotte H.; Weichenthal, Scott; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Weintraub, Robert G.; Werdecker, Andrea; Wessells, K. Ryan; Westerman, Ronny; Whiteford, Harvey A.; Wilkinson, James D.; Williams, Hywel C.; Williams, Thomas N.; Woldeyohannes, Solomon M.; Wolfe, Charles D. A.; Wong, John Q.; Woolf, Anthony D.; Wright, Jonathan L.; Wurtz, Brittany; Xu, Gelin; Yan, Lijing L.; Yang, Gonghuan; Yano, Yuichiro; Ye, Pengpeng; Yenesew, Muluken; Yentür, Gökalp K.; Yip, Paul; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Yoon, Seok-Jun; Younis, Mustafa Z.; Younoussi, Zourkaleini; Yu, Chuanhua; Zaki, Maysaa E.; Zhao, Yong; Zheng, Yingfeng; Zhou, Maigeng; Zhu, Jun; Zhu, Shankuan; Zou, Xiaonong; Zunt, Joseph R.; Lopez, Alan D.; Vos, Theo; Murray, Christopher J.

    2015-01-01

    Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for

  11. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu; Abate, Kalkidan Hassen; Abbafati, Cristiana; Abbas, Kaja M.; Abd-Allah, Foad; Abdulle, Abdishakur M.; Abera, Semaw Ferede; Aboyans, Victor; Abu-Raddad, Laith J.; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M E; Abyu, Gebre Yitayih; Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi; Adetokunboh, Olatunji; Afarideh, Mohsen; Afshin, Ashkan; Agrawal, Anurag; Agrawal, Sutapa; Ahmadieh, Hamid; Ahmed, Muktar Beshir; Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine; Aichour, Amani Nidhal; Aichour, Ibtihel; Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola; Akseer, Nadia; Alahdab, Fares; Al-Aly, Ziyad; Alam, Khurshid; Alam, Noore; Alam, Tahiya; Alasfoor, Deena; Alene, Kefyalew Addis; Ali, Komal; Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza; Alkerwi, Ala'a; Alla, François; Allebeck, Peter; Al-Raddadi, Rajaa; Alsharif, Ubai; Altirkawi, Khalid A.; Alvis-Guzman, Nelson; Amare, Azmeraw T; Amini, Erfan; Ammar, Walid; Amoako, Yaw Ampem; Ansari, Hossein; Antó, Josep M.; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T; Anwari, Palwasha; Arian, Nicholas; Ärnlöv, Johan; Artaman, Al; Aryal, Krishna Kumar; Asayesh, Hamid; Asgedom, Solomon Weldegebreal; Atey, Tesfay Mehari; Avila-Burgos, Leticia; Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G.Arthur; Awasthi, Ashish; Azzopardi, Peter; Bacha, Umar; Badawi, Alaa; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Ballew, Shoshana H.; Barac, Aleksandra; Barber, Ryan M; Barker-Collo, Suzanne L; Bärnighausen, Till; Barquera, Simon; Barregard, Lars; Barrero, Lope H; Batis, Carolina; Battle, Katherine E.; Baumgarner, Blair R.; Baune, Bernhard T.; Beardsley, Justin; Bedi, Neeraj; Beghi, Ettore; Bell, Michelle L; Bennett, Derrick A; Bennett, James R.; Bensenor, Isabela M.; Berhane, Adugnaw; Berhe, Derbew Fikadu; Bernabé, Eduardo; Betsu, Balem Demtsu; Beuran, Mircea; Beyene, Addisu Shunu; Bhansali, Anil; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A; Bicer, Burcu Kucuk; Bikbov, Boris; Birungi, Charles; Biryukov, Stan; Blosser, Christopher D.; Boneya, Dube Jara; Bou-Orm, Ibrahim R.; Brauer, Michael; Breitborde, Nicholas J.K.; Brenner, Hermann; Brugha, Traolach S; Bulto, Lemma Negesa Bulto; Butt, Zahid A.; Cahuana-Hurtado, Lucero; Cárdenas, Rosario; Carrero, Juan Jesus; Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A; Catalá-López, Ferrán; Cercy, Kelly; Chang, Hsing Yi; Charlson, Fiona J; Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel; Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe; Chitheer, Abdulaal A.; Christensen, Hanne; Christopher, Devasahayam Jesudas; Cirillo, Massimo; Cohen, Aaron J; Comfort, Haley; Cooper, Cyrus; Coresh, Josef; Cornaby, Leslie; Cortesi, Paolo Angelo; Criqui, Michael H; Crump, John A; Dandona, Lalit; Dandona, Rakhi; das Neves, José; Davey, Gail; Davitoiu, Dragos V; Davletov, Kairat; de Courten, Barbora; Defo, Barthelemy Kuate; Degenhardt, Louisa; Deiparine, Selina; Dellavalle, Robert P; Deribe, Kebede; Deshpande, Aniruddha; Dharmaratne, Samath D; Ding, Eric L; Djalalinia, Shirin; Do, Huyen Phuc; Dokova, Klara; Doku, David Teye; Donkelaar, Aaron van; Dorsey, E Ray; Driscoll, Tim R; Dubey, Manisha; Duncan, Bruce Bartholow; Duncan, Sarah; Ebrahimi, Hedyeh; El-Khatib, Ziad Ziad; Enayati, Ahmadali; Endries, Aman Yesuf; Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich; Erskine, Holly E; Eshrati, Babak; Eskandarieh, Sharareh; Esteghamati, Alireza; Estep, Kara; Faraon, Emerito Jose Aquino; Farinha, Carla Sofia e.Sa; Faro, André; Farzadfar, Farshad; Fay, Kairsten; Feigin, Valery L; Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad; Fernandes, João C.; Ferrari, Alize J; Feyissa, Tesfaye Regassa; Filip, Irina; Fischer, Florian; Fitzmaurice, Christina; Flaxman, Abraham D; Foigt, Nataliya; Foreman, Kyle J; Frostad, Joseph J; Fullman, Nancy; Fürst, Thomas; Furtado, Joao M.; Gakidou, Emmanuela; Ganji, Morsaleh; Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L.; Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde; Geleijnse, Johanna M.; Geleto, Ayele; Gemechu, Bikila Lencha; Gesesew, Hailay Abrha; Gething, Peter W.; Ghajar, Alireza; Gibney, Katherine B; Gill, Paramjit Singh; Gillum, Richard F; Giref, Ababi Zergaw; Gishu, Melkamu Dedefo; Giussani, Giorgia; Godwin, William W.; Gona, Philimon N.; Goodridge, Amador; Gopalani, Sameer Vali; Goryakin, Yevgeniy; Goulart, Alessandra Carvalho; Graetz, Nicholas; Gugnani, Harish Chander; Guo, Jingwen; Gupta, Rajeev; Gupta, Tanush; Gupta, Vipin; Gutiérrez, Reyna A; Hachinski, Vladimir; Hafezi-Nejad, Nima; Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa; Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi; Hamidi, Samer; Hammami, Mouhanad; Handal, Alexis J.; Hankey, Graeme J.; Hanson, Sarah Wulf; Harb, Hilda L; Hareri, Habtamu Abera; Hassanvand, Mohammad Sadegh; Havmoeller, Rasmus; Hawley, Caitlin; Hay, Simon I; Hedayati, Mohammad T; Hendrie, Delia; Heredia-Pi, Ileana Beatriz; Hernandez, Julio Cesar Montañez; Hoek, Hans W; Horita, Nobuyuki; Hosgood, H. Dean; Hostiuc, Sorin; Hoy, Damian G; Hsairi, Mohamed; Hu, Guoqing; Huang, John J; Huang, Hsiang; Ibrahim, Norlinah Mohamed; Iburg, Kim Moesgaard; Ikeda, Chad; Inoue, Manami; Irvine, Caleb Mackay Salpeter; Jackson, Maria Delores; Jacobsen, Kathryn H; Jahanmehr, Nader; Jakovljevic, Mihajlo B.; Jauregui, Alejandra; Javanbakht, Mehdi; Jeemon, Panniyammakal; Johansson, Lars R.K.; Johnson, Catherine O.; Jonas, Jost B; Jürisson, Mikk; Kabir, Zubair; Kadel, Rajendra; Kahsay, Amaha; Kamal, Ritul; Karch, André; Karema, Corine Kakizi; Kasaeian, Amir; Kassebaum, Nicholas J.; Kastor, Anshul; Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal; Kawakami, Norito; Keiyoro, Peter Njenga; Kelbore, Sefonias Getachew; Kemmer, Laura; Kengne, Andre Pascal; Kesavachandran, Chandrasekharan Nair; Khader, Yousef Saleh; Khalil, Ibrahim A.; Khan, Ejaz Ahmad; Khang, Young-Ho; Khosravi, Ardeshir; Khubchandani, Jagdish; Kiadaliri, Aliasghar Ahmad; Kieling, Christian; Kim, Jun Y.; Kim, Yun Jin; Kim, Daniel; Kimokoti, Ruth W; Kinfu, Yohannes; Kisa, Adnan; Kissimova-Skarbek, Katarzyna A.; Kivimaki, Mika; Knibbs, Luke D; Knudsen, Ann Kristin; Kopec, Jacek A.; Kosen, Soewarta; Koul, Parvaiz A.; Koyanagi, Ai; Kravchenko, Michael; Krohn, Kristopher J.; Kromhout, Hans|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/074385224; Kumar, G Anil; Kutz, Michael; Kyu, Hmwe H; Lal, Dharmesh Kumar; Lalloo, Ratilal; Lallukka, Tea; Lan, Qing; Lansingh, Van C; Larsson, Anders; Lee, Paul H.; Lee, Alexander; Leigh, James; Leung, Janni; Levi, Miriam; Levy, Teresa Shamah; Li, Yichong; Li, Yongmei; Liang, Xiaofeng; Liben, Misgan Legesse; Lim, Stephen S; Linn, Shai; Liu, Patrick; Lodha, Rakesh; Logroscino, Giancarlo; Looker, Katherine J.; Lopez, Alan D; Lorkowski, Stefan; Lotufo, Paulo A; Lozano, Rafael; Lunevicius, Raimundas; Macarayan, Erlyn Rachelle King; Magdy Abd El Razek, Hassan; Magdy Abd El Razek, Mohammed; Majdan, Marek; Majdzadeh, Reza; Majeed, Azeem; Malekzadeh, Reza; Malhotra, Rajesh; Malta, Deborah Carvalho; Mamun, Abdullah A.; Manguerra, Helena; Mantovani, Lorenzo G.; Mapoma, Chabila C.; Martin, Randall V; Martinez-Raga, Jose; Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio; Mathur, Manu Raj; Matsushita, Kunihiro; Matzopoulos, Richard; Mazidi, Mohsen; McAlinden, Colm; McGrath, John W; Mehata, Suresh; Mehndiratta, Man Mohan; Meier, Toni; Melaku, Yohannes Adama; Memiah, Peter; Memish, Ziad A.; Mendoza, Walter; Mengesha, Melkamu Merid; Mensah, George A; Mensink, Gert B.M.; Mereta, Seid Tiku; Meretoja, Tuomo J.; Meretoja, Atte; Mezgebe, Haftay Berhane; Micha, Renata; Millear, Anoushka; Miller, Ted R; Minnig, Shawn; Mirarefin, Mojde; Mirrakhimov, Erkin M.; Misganaw, Awoke; Mishra, Shiva Raj; Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin; Mohammed, Kedir Endris; Mohammed, Shafiu; Mohan, Murali B.V.; Mokdad, Ali H; Monasta, Lorenzo; Montico, Marcella; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar; Moraga, Paula; Morawska, Lidia; Morrison, Shane D.; Mountjoy-Venning, Cliff; Mueller, Ulrich O; Mullany, Erin C; Muller, Kate; Murray, Christopher J L; Murthy, Gudlavalleti Venkata Satyanarayana; Musa, Kamarul Imran; Naghavi, Mohsen; Naheed, Aliya; Nangia, Vinay; Natarajan, Gopalakrishnan; Negoi, Ruxandra Irina; Negoi, Ionut; Nguyen, Cuong Tat; Nguyen, Quyen Le; Nguyen, Trang Huyen; Nguyen, Grant; Nguyen, Minh Hao; Nichols, Emma; Ningrum, Dina Nur Anggraini; Nomura, Marika; Nong, Vuong Minh; Norheim, Ole F; Norrving, Bo; Noubiap, Jean Jacques N.; Obermeyer, Carla Makhlouf; Ogbo, Felix Akpojene; Oh, In-Hwan; Oladimeji, Olanrewaju; Olagunju, Andrew Toyin; Olagunju, Tinuke Oluwasefunmi; Olivares, Pedro R.; Olsen, Helen E.; Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola; Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun; Opio, John Nelson; Oren, Eyal; Ortiz, Alberto; Ota, Erika; Owolabi, Mayowa O.; PA, Mahesh; Pacella, Rosana E.; Pana, Adrian; Panda, Basant Kumar; Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra; Pandian, Jeyaraj D; Papachristou, Christina; Park, Eun-Kee; Parry, Charles D; Patten, Scott B; Patton, George C.; Pereira, David M; Perico, Norberto; Pesudovs, Konrad; Petzold, Max; Phillips, Michael Robert; Pillay, Julian David; Piradov, Michael A.; Pishgar, Farhad; Plass, Dietrich; Pletcher, Martin A.; Polinder, Suzanne; Popova, Svetlana; Poulton, Richie G.; Pourmalek, Farshad; Prasad, Narayan; Purcell, Carrie; Qorbani, Mostafa; Radfar, Amir; Rafay, Anwar; Rahimi-Movaghar, Afarin; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa; Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur; Rahman, Muhammad Aziz; Rahman, Mahfuzar; Rai, Rajesh Kumar; Rajsic, Sasa; Ram, Usha; Rawaf, Salman; Rehm, Colin D.; Rehm, Jürgen; Reiner, Robert C.; Reitsma, Marissa B.; Remuzzi, Giuseppe; Renzaho, Andre M.N.; Resnikoff, Serge; Reynales-Shigematsu, Luz Myriam; Rezaei, Satar; Ribeiro, Antonio L; Rivera, Juan A.; Roba, Kedir Teji; Rojas-Rueda, David; Roman, Yesenia; Room, Robin; Roshandel, Gholamreza; Roth, Gregory A.; Rothenbacher, Dietrich; Rubagotti, Enrico; Rushton, Lesley; Sadat, Nafis; Safdarian, Mahdi; Safi, Sare; Safiri, Saeid; Sahathevan, Ramesh; Salama, Joseph; Salomon, Joshua A; Samy, Abdallah M.; Sanabria, Juan Ramon; Sanchez-Niño, Maria Dolores; Sánchez-Pimienta, Tania G; Santomauro, Damian; Santos, Itamar S; Santric Milicevic, Milena M.; Sartorius, Benn; Satpathy, Maheswar; Sawhney, Monika; Saxena, Sonia; Schmidt, Maria Inês; Schneider, Ione J C; Schutte, Aletta E.; Schwebel, David C; Schwendicke, Falk; Seedat, Soraya; Sepanlou, Sadaf G; Serdar, Berrin; Servan-Mori, Edson E; Shaddick, Gavin; Shaheen, Amira; Shahraz, Saeid; Shaikh, Masood Ali; Shamsipour, Mansour; Shamsizadeh, Morteza; Shariful Islam, Sheikh Mohammed; Sharma, Jayendra; Sharma, Rajesh; She, Jun; Shen, Jiabin; Shi, Peilin; Shibuya, Kenji; Shields, Chloe; Shiferaw, Mekonnen Sisay; Shigematsu, Mika; Shin, Min Jeong; Shiri, Rahman; Shirkoohi, Reza; Shishani, Kawkab; Shoman, Haitham; Shrime, Mark G.; Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora; Silva, Diego Augusto Santos; Silva, João Pedro; Silveira, Dayane Gabriele Alves; Singh, Jasvinder A; Singh, Virendra; Sinha, Dhirendra Narain; Skiadaresi, Eirini; Slepak, Erica Leigh; Smith, David L.; Smith, Mari; Sobaih, Badr H.A.; Sobngwi, Eugene; Soneji, Samir; Sorensen, Reed J.D.; Sposato, Luciano A; Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T; Srinivasan, Vinay; Steel, Nicholas; Stein, Dan J.; Steiner, Caitlyn; Steinke, Sabine; Stokes, Mark Andrew; Strub, Bryan; Subart, Michelle; Sufiyan, Muawiyyah Babale; Suliankatchi, Rizwan Abdulkader; Sur, Patrick J.; Swaminathan, Soumya; Sykes, Bryan L; Szoeke, Cassandra E.I.; Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael; Tadakamadla, Santosh Kumar; Takahashi, Ken; Takala, Jukka S.; Tandon, Nikhil; Tanner, Marcel; Tarekegn, Yihunie L.; Tavakkoli, Mohammad; Tegegne, Teketo Kassaw; Tehrani-Banihashemi, Arash; Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman; Tesssema, Belay; Thakur, J. S.; Thamsuwan, Ornwipa; Thankappan, Kavumpurathu Raman; Theis, Andrew M.; Thomas, Matthew Lloyd; Thomson, Alan J.; Thrift, Amanda G; Tillmann, Taavi; Tobe-Gai, Ruoyan; Tobollik, Myriam; Tollanes, Mette C.; Tonelli, Marcello; Topor-Madry, Roman; Torre, Anna; Tortajada, Miguel; Touvier, Mathilde; Tran, Bach Xuan; Truelsen, Thomas; Tuem, Kald Beshir; Tuzcu, Emin Murat; Tyrovolas, Stefanos; Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna; Uneke, Chigozie Jesse; Updike, Rachel; Uthman, Olalekan A.; van Boven, Job F.M.; Varughese, Santosh; Vasankari, Tommi J; Veerman, Lennert J; Venkateswaran, Vidhya; Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy; Violante, Francesco S; Vladimirov, Sergey K.; Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich; Vollset, Stein Emil; Vos, Theo; Wadilo, Fiseha; Wakayo, Tolassa; Wallin, Mitchell T; Wang, Yuan Pang; Weichenthal, Scott; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Weintraub, Robert G; Weiss, Daniel J.; Werdecker, Andrea; Westerman, Ronny; Whiteford, Harvey A; Wiysonge, Charles Shey; Woldeyes, Belete Getahun; Wolfe, Charles D A; Woodbrook, Rachel; Workicho, Abdulhalik; Xavier, Denis; Xu, Gelin; Yadgir, Simon; Yakob, Bereket; Yan, Lijing L; Yaseri, Mehdi; Yimam, Hassen Hamid; Yip, Paul; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Yoon, Seok-Jun; Yotebieng, Marcel; Younis, Mustafa Z; Zaidi, Zoubida; Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed; Zavala-Arciniega, Luis; Zhang, Xueying; Zimsen, Stephanie Raman M.; Zipkin, Ben; Zodpey, Sanjay

    2017-01-01

    Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of risk factor exposure and attributable burden of disease. By providing estimates over a long time series, this study can monitor risk exposure trends critical to health

  12. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gakidou, Emmanuela; Geleijnse, J.M.

    2017-01-01

    Background
    The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of risk factor exposure and attributable burden of disease. By providing estimates over a long time series, this study can monitor risk exposure trends critical to

  13. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gakidou, Emmanuela; Afshin, Ashkan; Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu; Abate, Kalkidan Hassen; Abbafati, Cristiana; Abbas, Kaja M.; Abd-Allah, Foad; Abdulle, Abdishakur M.; Abera, Semaw Ferede; Aboyans, Victor; Abu-Raddad, Laith J.; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M. E.; Abyu, Gebre Yitayih; Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi; Adetokunboh, Olatunji; Afarideh, Mohsen; Agrawal, Anurag; Agrawal, Sutapa; Kiadaliri, Aliasghar Ahmad; Ahmadieh, Hamid; Ahmed, Muktar Beshir; Aichour, Amani Nidhal; Aichour, Ibtihel; Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine; Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola; Akseer, Nadia; Alahdab, Fares; Al-Aly, Ziyad; Alam, Khurshid; Alam, Noore; Alam, Tahiya; Alasfoor, Deena; Alene, Kefyalew Addis; Ali, Komal; Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza; Alkerwi, Ala'a; Alla, Francois; Allebeck, Peter; Al-Raddadi, Rajaa; Alsharif, Ubai; Altirkawi, Khalid A.; Alvis-Guzman, Nelson; Amare, Azmeraw T.; Amini, Erfan; Ammar, Walid; Amoako, Yaw Ampem; Ansari, Hossein; Berhe, Derbew Fikadu; Hoek, Hans W.; van Boven, Job F. M.

    2017-01-01

    Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of risk factor exposure and attributable burden of disease. By providing estimates over a long time series, this study can monitor risk exposure trends critical to health

  14. Modulators of mercury risk to wildlife and humans in the context of rapid global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eagles-Smith, Collin A.; Silbergeld, Ellen K.; Basu, Niladri; Bustamante, Paco; Diaz-Barriga, Fernando; Hopkins, William A.; Kidd, Karen A.; Nyland, Jennifer F.

    2018-01-01

    Environmental mercury (Hg) contamination is an urgent global health threat. The complexity of Hg in the environment can hinder accurate determination of ecological and human health risks, particularly within the context of the rapid global changes that are altering many ecological processes, socioeconomic patterns, and other factors like infectious disease incidence, which can affect Hg exposures and health outcomes. However, the success of global Hg-reduction efforts depends on accurate assessments of their effectiveness in reducing health risks. In this paper, we examine the role that key extrinsic and intrinsic drivers play on several aspects of Hg risk to humans and organisms in the environment. We do so within three key domains of ecological and human health risk. First, we examine how extrinsic global change drivers influence pathways of Hg bioaccumulation and biomagnification through food webs. Next, we describe how extrinsic socioeconomic drivers at a global scale, and intrinsic individual-level drivers, influence human Hg exposure. Finally, we address how the adverse health effects of Hg in humans and wildlife are modulated by a range of extrinsic and intrinsic drivers within the context of rapid global change. Incorporating components of these three domains into research and monitoring will facilitate a more holistic understanding of how ecological and societal drivers interact to influence Hg health risks.

  15. Global Risks as Factors that Affect the Current system of international Relations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina A. Zaitseva

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The problem of the globalization of risks is examined in this article. Based on the World Economic Forum (WEF report on global risks 2015-2017, the impact of global risks on the social and economic development of countries is examined. Economic, social, environmental, geopolitical, technological risks are analyzed in a coordinated fashion. The article notes that the main risks are in the field of environment and ecology. Anthropogenic pressure amplification, scientific and technological advance have an influence on the natural environment. The risks of infrastructure and environmental damage in danger zone are increased because of the growth of the frequency of extreme weather events. The measures for the protection of the environment are examined. The unilateral approach to solving international issues, instead of the collective efforts of the international community; the deployment of weapons of mass destruction (nuclear, chemical, biological and technologies for the production of radioactive materials; escalation of economic and resource nationalization (the desire of States to expropriate or restrict the export of important for the world economy of resources, etc. promote the increasing geopolitical risks.Economic risks include the risk in terms of their likelihood their impact on the macroeconomic, as from the financial systems and infrastructure to price volatility and regulatory issues. Social risks are the risks relating to instability of population dynamics, social crises and human survival.Technological risks include such problems as software defects, failure of important information systems, upon which today industrial production is depended, the services and communications sector; the escalation of large-scale cyber-attacks; theft of electronic information and the illegal usage of personal data. The trends that can intensify the global risks or to change the correlation between them are analyzed in this article.

  16. Global distribution and drivers of language extinction risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amano, Tatsuya; Sandel, Brody Steven; Eager, Heidi

    2014-01-01

    latitudes and are strongly linked to high economic growth. Threatened languages are numerous in the tropics, the Himalayas and northwestern North America. These results indicate that small-population languages remaining in economically developed regions are seriously threatened by continued speaker declines....... However, risks of future language losses are especially high in the tropics and in the Himalayas, as these regions harbour many small-population languages and are undergoing rapid economic growth....

  17. Chemical Risk Assessment Screening Tool of a Global Chemical Company

    OpenAIRE

    Evelyn Tjoe-Nij; Christophe Rochin; Nathalie Berne; Alessandro Sassi; Antoine Leplay

    2018-01-01

    Background: This paper describes a simple-to-use and reliable screening tool called Critical Task Exposure Screening (CTES), developed by a chemical company. The tool assesses if the exposure to a chemical for a task is likely to be within acceptable levels. Methods: CTES is a Microsoft Excel tool, where the inhalation risk score is calculated by relating the exposure estimate to the corresponding occupational exposure limit (OEL) or occupational exposure band (OEB). The inhalation exposure i...

  18. Chemical Risk Assessment Screening Tool of a Global Chemical Company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evelyn Tjoe-Nij

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: This paper describes a simple-to-use and reliable screening tool called Critical Task Exposure Screening (CTES, developed by a chemical company. The tool assesses if the exposure to a chemical for a task is likely to be within acceptable levels. Methods: CTES is a Microsoft Excel tool, where the inhalation risk score is calculated by relating the exposure estimate to the corresponding occupational exposure limit (OEL or occupational exposure band (OEB. The inhalation exposure is estimated for tasks by preassigned ART1.5 activity classes and modifying factors. Results: CTES requires few inputs. The toxicological data, including OELs, OEBs, and vapor pressure are read from a database. Once the substance is selected, the user specifies its concentration and then chooses the task description and its duration. CTES has three outputs that may trigger follow-up: (1 inhalation risk score; (2 identification of the skin hazard with the skin warnings for local and systemic adverse effects; and (3 status for carcinogenic, mutagenic, or reprotoxic effects. Conclusion: The tool provides an effective way to rapidly screen low-concern tasks, and quickly identifies certain tasks involving substances that will need further review with, nevertheless, the appropriate conservatism. This tool shows that the higher-tier ART1.5 inhalation exposure assessment model can be included effectively in a screening tool. After 2 years of worldwide extensive use within the company, CTES is well perceived by the users, including the shop floor management, and it fulfills its target of screening tool. Keywords: occupational exposure, risk assessment, risk management

  19. Global Amphibian Extinction Risk Assessment for the Panzootic Chytrid Fungus

    OpenAIRE

    Rödder, Dennis; Kielgast, Jos; Bielby, Jon; Schmidtlein, Sebastian; Bosch, Jaime; Garner, Trenton W. J.; Veith, Michael; Walker, Susan; Fisher, Matthew C.; Lötters, Stefan

    2009-01-01

    Species are being lost at increasing rates due to anthropogenic effects, leading to the recognition that we are witnessing the onset of a sixth mass extinction. Emerging infectious disease has been shown to increase species loss and any attempts to reduce extinction rates need to squarely confront this challenge. Here, we develop a procedure for identifying amphibian species that are most at risk from the effects of chytridiomycosis by combining spatial analyses of key host life-history varia...

  20. Melodie: A global risk assessment model for radioactive waste repositories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lewi, J.; Assouline, M.; Bareau, J.; Raimbault, P.

    1987-03-01

    The Institute of Protection and Nuclear Safety (IPSN), which is part of the French Atomic Energy Commission (C.E.A.) develops since 1984 in collaboration with different groups inside and outside the C.E.A. a computer model for risk assessment of nuclear waste repositories in deep geological formations. The main characteristics of the submodels, the data processing structure and some examples of applications are presented

  1. Cyber Terrorism demands a Global Risks and Threats Strategic Management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gareva, R.

    2007-01-01

    The world is in the third wave of development, which is digital managed and networked. Information, which creates the knowledge is transferring thorough the Internet by exponential function. The rapid advancement of the computer technology has a great influence over the development of the critical information infrastructure, thus changing the safety environment and the national values and interests. This advancement produces threats and risks from computer perspective which are sublimated in different forms of international terrorism and particularly in cyber terrorism. The main aim of this paper is based on a thorough analysis of what is scientifically known and practiced when nowadays critical information infrastructure is in the focus of the cyber terrorism. The rapid IT development demands changes in the strategic management focus. As a result of a time-consuming theoretical and empirical research this paper suggests a methodology for strategic managing of: threats, risks and vulnerabilities. The proposed methodology is seen as a mean to increase the human security conscious in every sense of the word, and to promote the need for rules, procedures and standards establishment from the aspect of the strategic management in the new information epoch concerning. In addition, through a scientific discourse, a short attempt is made to relate Macedonian reality with the phenomenon mentioned above. The most fundamental set phrase is that the efficiency and promptly made decisions during strategic planning are a projection of the systematic organization of functions and models for managing the risks and threats of the critical information infrastructure. Hence, this paper could be seen as a perspective when taking in consideration the regional strategic management, and the cyber space vital functioning. (author)

  2. RISK MANAGEMENT IN LENDING INSTITUTIONS IN THE CONTEXT OF ECONOMIC GLOBALIZATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BOGHEAN FLORIN

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The Romanian companies are nowadays facing process of extinction of decisions based on risk and uncertainty, as a consequence of the permanent transforming process of the economy and because of the privatization, restructuring and globalization activities. The main forms of risk are can be grouped in eight categories: economical risks, financial risks, commercial risks, manufacturing risks, political risks, social risks, juridical risks, natural risks. Through its nature the decision is referring to the future, mainly being provisional. In any decisional process developed at the company level, there are involved in the same time some economical, techniques, juridical, human and managerial variables. The economic recession generated by the chaos affecting financial systems has profoundly distressed the public, business circles and political leaders. The crisis has inexorably had negative effects on global economic growth and will have political, strategic and social consequences as well. The contents of this paper encompasses theoretical and practical aspects, quantitative and qualitative analyses, all aimed at identifying, analysing and controlling bank risks and, last but not least, at managing these risks.

  3. Modeling and Managing the Risks of Measles and Rubella: A Global Perspective, Part I.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Kimberly M; Cochi, Stephen L

    2016-07-01

    Over the past 50 years, the use of vaccines led to significant decreases in the global burdens of measles and rubella, motivated at least in part by the successive development of global control and elimination targets. The Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) includes specific targets for regional elimination of measles and rubella in five of six regions of the World Health Organization by 2020. Achieving the GVAP measles and rubella goals will require significant immunization efforts and associated financial investments and political commitments. Planning and budgeting for these efforts can benefit from learning some important lessons from the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI). Following an overview of the global context of measles and rubella risks and discussion of lessons learned from the GPEI, we introduce the contents of the special issue on modeling and managing the risks of measles and rubella. This introduction describes the synthesis of the literature available to support evidence-based model inputs to support the development of an integrated economic and dynamic disease transmission model to support global efforts to optimally manage these diseases globally using vaccines. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  4. Global timber investments, wood costs, regulation, and risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cubbage, Frederick; Koesbandana, Sadharga; Gonzalez, Ronalds; Carrero, Omar; MacIntyre, Charles; Abt, Robert; Phillips, Richard; Mac Donagh, Patricio; Rubilar, Rafael; Balmelli, Gustavo; Olmos, Virginia Morales; De La Torre, Rafael; Murara, Mauro; Hoeflich, Vitor Afonso; Kotze, Heynz; Frey, Gregory; Adams, Thomas; Turner, James; Lord, Roger; Huang, Jin; McGinley, Kathleen

    2010-01-01

    We estimated financial returns and wood production costs in 2008 for the primary timber plantation species. Excluding land costs, returns for exotic plantations in almost all of South America - Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Chile, Colombia, Venezuela, and Paraguay - were substantial. Eucalyptus species returns were generally greater than those for Pinus species in each country, with most having Internal Rates of Return (IRRs) of 20% per year or more, as did teak. Pinus species in South America were generally closer to 15%, except in Argentina, where they were 20%. IRRs were less, but still attractive for plantations of coniferous or deciduous species in China, South Africa, New Zealand, Indonesia, and the United States, ranging from 7% to 12%. Costs of wood production at the cost of capital of 8% per year were generally cheapest for countries with high rates of return and for pulpwood fiber production, which would favor vertically integrated firms in Latin America. But wood costs at stumpage market prices were much greater, making net wood costs for open market wood more similar among countries. In the Americas, Chile and Brazil had the most regulatory components of sustainable forest management, followed by Misiones, Argentina and Oregon in the U.S. New Zealand, the United States, and Chile had the best rankings regarding risk from political, commercial, war, or government actions and for the ease of doing business. Conversely, Venezuela, Indonesia, Colombia, and Argentina had high risk ratings, and Brazil, Indonesia, and Venezuela were ranked as more difficult countries for ease of business. (author)

  5. Global timber investments, wood costs, regulation, and risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cubbage, Frederick; Koesbandana, Sadharga; Gonzalez, Ronalds; Carrero, Omar; MacIntyre, Charles; Abt, Robert; Phillips, Richard [Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC (United States); Mac Donagh, Patricio [Universidad Nacional de Misiones (UNAM), Lisandro de la Torre s/n, CP 3380, Eldorado, Misiones (Argentina); Rubilar, Rafael [Universidad de Concepcion, Victoria 631, Casilla 160-C - Correo 3, Concepcion (Chile); Balmelli, Gustavo [Instituto Nacional de Investigacion Agropecuria, INIA Tacuarembo, Ruta 5, Km 386, Tacuarembo (Uruguay); Olmos, Virginia Morales [Weyerhaeuser Company, La Rosa 765, Melo (Uruguay); De La Torre, Rafael [CellFor, 247 Davis Street, Athens, GA (United States); Murara, Mauro [Universidade do Contestado, R. Joaquim Nabuco, 314 Bairro Cidade Nova, Porto Uniao, Santa Catarina (Brazil); Hoeflich, Vitor Afonso [Universidade Federal do Parana, Av. Pref. Lothario Meissner, 900, 80210-170, Jardim Botanico, Curitiba, Parana (Brazil); Kotze, Heynz [Komatiland Forests (Pty) Ltd, P.O. Box 14228, Nelspruit (South Africa); Frey, Gregory [World Bank, 1818 H. Street NW, Washington, DC (United States); Adams, Thomas; Turner, James [New Zealand Forest Research Institute Ltd., Scion, 49 Sala St., Rotorua (New Zealand); Lord, Roger [Mason, Bruce, and Girard, Inc., 707 SW Washington St., Portland, Oregon (United States); Huang, Jin [Abt Associates, 4550 Montgomery Avenue, Bethesda, MD (United States); McGinley, Kathleen [International Institute of Tropical Forestry, USDA Forest Service, c/o 920 Main Campus Dr. Suite 300, Raleigh, NC (United States)

    2010-12-15

    We estimated financial returns and wood production costs in 2008 for the primary timber plantation species. Excluding land costs, returns for exotic plantations in almost all of South America - Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Chile, Colombia, Venezuela, and Paraguay - were substantial. Eucalyptus species returns were generally greater than those for Pinus species in each country, with most having Internal Rates of Return (IRRs) of 20% per year or more, as did teak. Pinus species in South America were generally closer to 15%, except in Argentina, where they were 20%. IRRs were less, but still attractive for plantations of coniferous or deciduous species in China, South Africa, New Zealand, Indonesia, and the United States, ranging from 7% to 12%. Costs of wood production at the cost of capital of 8% per year were generally cheapest for countries with high rates of return and for pulpwood fiber production, which would favor vertically integrated firms in Latin America. But wood costs at stumpage market prices were much greater, making net wood costs for open market wood more similar among countries. In the Americas, Chile and Brazil had the most regulatory components of sustainable forest management, followed by Misiones, Argentina and Oregon in the U.S. New Zealand, the United States, and Chile had the best rankings regarding risk from political, commercial, war, or government actions and for the ease of doing business. Conversely, Venezuela, Indonesia, Colombia, and Argentina had high risk ratings, and Brazil, Indonesia, and Venezuela were ranked as more difficult countries for ease of business. (author)

  6. Growing pains: How risk perception and risk communication research can help to manage the challenges of global population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, Ian G J; Johnson, Johnnie E V

    2014-08-01

    In 2011, the global human population reached 7 billion and medium variant projections indicate that it will exceed 9 billion before 2045. Theoretical and empirical perspectives suggest that this growth could lead to an increase in the likelihood of adverse events (e.g., food shortages, climate change, etc.) and/or the severity of adverse events (e.g., famines, natural disasters, etc.). Several scholars have posited that the size to which the global population grows and the extent to which this growth increases the likelihood of adverse outcomes will largely be shaped by individuals' decisions (in households, organizations, governments, etc.). In light of the strong relationship between perceived risk and decision behaviors, it is surprising that there remains a dearth of empirical research that specifically examines the perceived risks of population growth and how these perceptions might influence related decisions. In an attempt to motivate this important strand of research, this article examines the major risks that may be exacerbated by global population growth and draws upon empirical work concerning the perception and communication of risk to identify potential directions for future research. The article also considers how individuals might perceive both the risks and benefits of population growth and be helped to better understand and address the related issues. The answers to these questions could help humanity better manage the emerging consequences of its continuing success in increasing infant survival and adult longevity. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  7. Global Burden of Neural Tube Defects, Risk Factors, and Prevention

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph E

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Neural tube defects (NTDs, serious birth defects of the brain and spine usually resulting in death or paralysis, affect an estimated 300,000 births each year worldwide. Although the majority of NTDs are preventable with adequate folic acid consumption during the preconception period and throughout the first few weeks of gestation, many populations, in particular those in low and middle resource settings, do not have access to fortified foods or vitamin supplements containing folic acid. Further, accurate birth defects surveillance data, which could help inform mandatory fortification and other NTD prevention initiatives, are lacking in many of these settings. The burden of birth defects in South East Asia is among the highest in the world. Expanding global neural tube defects prevention initiatives can support the achievement of the United Nations Millennium Development Goal 4 to reduce child mortality, a goal which many countries in South East Asia are currently not poised to reach, and the 63rd World Health Assembly Resolution on birth defects. More work is needed to develop and implement mandatory folic acid fortification policies, as well as supplementation programs in countries where the reach of fortification is limited.

  8. Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  9. Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-01-01

    There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  10. Global warming risk in Russia: National actions and some options for international cooperation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sokolov, V.I.

    1995-01-01

    In the management of global environmental risks the Russia case is a special one regarding certain specific features which determine the position of the country, particularly in a new international community emerged on the territory of the former Soviet Union, large scientific interest to the global physical processes and low interest and capabilities to deal with such risks on the part of social institutions inherited from the USSR. The largest country in the world with visible geopolitical role and probably biggest regional differences could not be ignored as a one of major players in the management of global environmental risks. The understanding of all deficiencies and positive sides of global risks management process in this country are absolutely important for extrapolating the appropriate trends in some other parts of the world. At the same time the ex-Soviet Union case shows clearly how the social learning process can radically ''change the course'', diverting to the opposite direction the social goals and preferences. Starting the studies on possibilities to change the climate for improving the human being, the former soviet society perceived the risks of human impact on climate and started to regulate it and to participate in the process of international management of global warming. The level of activity in this process on the part of Russia will however depend heavily on how much national interests will be reflected in the specific prevention measures realized by the international community

  11. Multi-hazard national-level risk assessment in Africa using global approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraser, Stuart; Jongman, Brenden; Simpson, Alanna; Murnane, Richard

    2016-04-01

    In recent years Sub-Saharan Africa has been characterized by unprecedented opportunity for transformation and sustained growth. However, natural disasters such as droughts, floods, cyclones, earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions and extreme temperatures cause significant economic and human losses, and major development challenges. Quantitative disaster risk assessments are an important basis for governments to understand disaster risk in their country, and to develop effective risk management and risk financing solutions. However, the data-scarce nature of many Sub-Saharan African countries as well as a lack of financing for risk assessments has long prevented detailed analytics. Recent advances in globally applicable disaster risk modelling practices and data availability offer new opportunities. In December 2013 the European Union approved a € 60 million contribution to support the development of an analytical basis for risk financing and to accelerate the effective implementation of a comprehensive disaster risk reduction. The World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) was selected as the implementing partner of the Program for Result Area 5: the "Africa Disaster Risk Assessment and Financing Program." As part of this effort, the GFDRR is overseeing the production of national-level multi-hazard risk profiles for a range of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, using a combination of national and global datasets and state-of-the-art hazard and risk assessment methodologies. In this presentation, we will highlight the analytical approach behind these assessments, and show results for the first five countries for which the assessment has been completed (Kenya, Uganda, Senegal, Niger and Ethiopia). The presentation will also demonstrate the visualization of the risk assessments into understandable and visually attractive risk profile documents.

  12. Russian spent marine fuel as a global security risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gussgard, K.; Reistad, O.

    2001-01-01

    Russian marine fuel is a trans-national security concern. This paper focuses on specific technical properties of Russian marine nuclear fuel especially relevant for evaluating different aspects on nuclear proliferation, in addition to risks associated with regional environmental degradation and illegal diversion of radiological substances. Russian fresh fuel for marine reactors has been involved in several significant cases of illicit trafficking of special nuclear materials. The amount and quality of nuclear materials in Russian spent marine fuel give also reason for concern. Not less than 200 marine reactor cores are ready for having their spent fuel unloaded and preliminary stored on shore in the Far East and North West of Russia, and large amounts of spent naval fuel have been stored at Russian military bases for decades. In order to assess the security risks associated with Russian spent marine fuel, this paper discusses the material attractiveness of spent fuel from all types of Russian marine reactors. The calculations are based on a model of a light water moderated Russian icebreaker reactor. The computer tool HELIOS, used for modelling the reactor and the reactor operations, has been extensively qualified by comparisons with experimental data and international benchmark problems for reactor physics codes as well as through feedback from applications. Some of these benchmarks and studies include fuel enrichments up to 90% in Russian marine reactors. Several fuel data cases are discussed in the paper, focusing especially on: 1) early fuel designs with low initial enrichment; 2) more modern fuel designs used in third and fourth generation of Russian submarines probably with intermediate enriched fuel; and 3) marine fuel with initial enrichment levels close to weapons-grade material. In each case the fuel has been burned until k eff has reached below 1. Case 1) has been evaluated, the calculations made as basis for this paper have concentrated on fuel with

  13. What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Philip; Jongman, Brenden; Salamon, Peter; Simpson, Alanna; Winsemius, Hessel

    2015-04-01

    In recent years, several global scale flood risk models have become available. Within the scientific community these have been, and are being, used to assess and map the current levels of risk faced by countries and societies. Increasingly, they are also being used to assess how that level of risk may change in the future, under scenarios of climate change and/or socioeconomic development. More and more, these 'quick and not so dirty' methods are also being used in practice, for a large range of uses and applications, and by an increasing range of practitioners and decision makers. For example, assessments can be used by: International Financing Institutes for prioritising investments in the most promising natural disaster risk reduction measures and strategies; intra-national institutes in the monitoring of progress on risk reduction activities; the (re-)insurance industry in assessing their risk portfolios and potential changes in those portfolios under climate change; by multinational companies in assessing risks to their regional investments and supply chains; and by international aid organisations for improved resource planning. However, global scale flood risk models clearly have their limits, and therefore both modellers and users need to critically address the question 'What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?'. This contribution is intended to start a dialogue between model developers, users, and decision makers to better answer this question. We will provide a number of examples of how the GLOFRIS global flood risk model has recently been used in several practical applications, and share both the positive and negative insights gained through these experiences. We wish to discuss similar experiences with other groups of modelers, users, and decision-makers, in order to better understand and harness the potential of this new generation of models, understand the differences in model approaches followed and their impacts on applicability, and develop

  14. Global sourcing risk management approaches: A study of small clothing and textile retailers in Gauteng

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wesley Niemann

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Background: Global sourcing has increased as buyers searched for new markets that offered better pricing, quality, variety and delivery lead times than their local markets. However, the increase in global sourcing has also exposed businesses to many supply risks. Purpose: The purpose of this descriptive qualitative study was to explore the global sourcing supply risks encountered by small clothing and textile retailers in Gauteng and to determine what supply risk identification and management approaches they utilise. Method: This study utilised semi-structured interviews conducted with 12 small clothing and textile retail owners. Results: The study found that the three major supply risks encountered by these retailers were fluctuating exchange rates, communication barriers and costly and complicated logistics, which included high customs costs. Furthermore, although aware of the supply risks, none of the small clothing and textile retailers had formal identification and management approaches in place. Instead, risks are dealt with at the sole discretion of the owner as and when they occur. The study also found that informal identification and management approaches were being applied by some of the retailers. These included factoring exchange rate fluctuations into the profit margins and using translators to combat communication barriers. Contribution: The study is one of the first empirical studies conducted on global supply risks and the associated identification and management approaches in the South African small business context, specifically focused on clothing and textile retailers. Conclusion: Small clothing and textile retailers need to proactively identify and manage global sourcing risk using the identified approaches in order to reduce and mitigate potential supply disruptions.

  15. Going global - how to reduce the risks involved in exporting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mowers, J.

    1999-01-01

    Exporting oilfield expertise and technology overseas to new markets can be risky, a lesson that the company Fracmaster Ltd. learned the hard way when it lost investment in the former Soviet Union. The company's demise illustrates some of the risks inherent in conducting business in a foreign country. To be successful at this Canadian oilfield service and supply companies must not only know how to recognize opportunities but also to recognize the possible pitfalls and learn how to avoid them. Before looking at the export market, oil and gas service and supply companies should first ensure that they have not missed any opportunities at home. Canada is the second largest market in the world after the U.S. But companies should approach the American market with caution. The rule that companies should approach the U.S. first does not necessarily hold in the oil and gas industries. Mexico is another country where Canadian companies should use caution. The current hotspots in exporting are countries in the Middle East and the Latin American countries. Saudi Arabia is interested in technology and expertise. although political factors in Iran will have to improve before commitment to that market is advisable. Industry Canada has a wealth of information and services available to companies interested in exporting. There are a number of government programs to help companies finance efforts to enter the export market. Industry Canada also offers a capital projects bidding program for Canadian companies bidding on projects greater than $1 million

  16. Assessing flood risk at the global scale: model setup, results, and sensitivity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, Philip J; Jongman, Brenden; Weiland, Frederiek Sperna; Winsemius, Hessel C; Bouwman, Arno; Ligtvoet, Willem; Van Beek, Rens; Bierkens, Marc F P

    2013-01-01

    Globally, economic losses from flooding exceeded $19 billion in 2012, and are rising rapidly. Hence, there is an increasing need for global-scale flood risk assessments, also within the context of integrated global assessments. We have developed and validated a model cascade for producing global flood risk maps, based on numerous flood return-periods. Validation results indicate that the model simulates interannual fluctuations in flood impacts well. The cascade involves: hydrological and hydraulic modelling; extreme value statistics; inundation modelling; flood impact modelling; and estimating annual expected impacts. The initial results estimate global impacts for several indicators, for example annual expected exposed population (169 million); and annual expected exposed GDP ($1383 billion). These results are relatively insensitive to the extreme value distribution employed to estimate low frequency flood volumes. However, they are extremely sensitive to the assumed flood protection standard; developing a database of such standards should be a research priority. Also, results are sensitive to the use of two different climate forcing datasets. The impact model can easily accommodate new, user-defined, impact indicators. We envisage several applications, for example: identifying risk hotspots; calculating macro-scale risk for the insurance industry and large companies; and assessing potential benefits (and costs) of adaptation measures. (letter)

  17. Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    Andru?cã Maria Carmen

    2013-01-01

    The field of globalization has highlighted an interdependence implied by a more harmonious understanding determined by the daily interaction between nations through the inducement of peace and the management of streamlining and the effectiveness of the global economy. For the functioning of the globalization, the developing countries that can be helped by the developed ones must be involved. The international community can contribute to the institution of the development environment of the gl...

  18. Insurance World in Transition: Changes in Global Risk Taking and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michel, Gero; Tiampo, Kristy

    2015-04-01

    Catastrophe insurance risk assessment, risk taking, and regulation has evolved over the last 20 years and is gearing up for significant further change in the years ahead. Changes in regulation and influx of capital have put profit margins for catastrophe risk products under pressure despite the fact that changes in climate as well as increasing insurance penetration is expected to heighten demand. As a result, reinsurance strategies are moving away from catastrophe risk. In addition, lower margins require cheaper and more efficient risk assessment methods and processes which are contrary to evolving analytical tools and methods that had increased expenses in line with growing margins over the last decade. New capital providers are less familiar with and less willing to accept complex supply chains for risk management, relationship-driven business and tedious data exchange and management processes. Risk takers claim new measures and ask for more flexibility in the use of tools. The current concepts of catastrophe insurance risk assessment are hence under thorough scrutiny. This presentation deals with the changing landscape in catastrophe insurance risk assessment and risk hedging and discusses changes in catastrophe risk assessment products and demand. How likely is it that private, small and nimble hazard and risk consulting groups - increasingly emanating from larger science organizations - will replace large established firms in their role to assess risk? What role do public-private academic partnerships play in assuming risk for catastrophe insurance and what role could they play in the future? What are the opportunities and downsides of the current changes in risk taking and hedging? What is needed from the scientific community in order to fill the gaps in risk management and who is likely to take advantage of the current changes?

  19. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015 : A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Forouzanfar, Mohammad H.; Afshin, Ashkan; Alexander, Lily T.; Anderson, H. Ross; Bhutta, Zulficiar A.; Biryukov, Stan; Brauer, Michael; Burnett, Richard; Cercy, Kelly; Charlson, Fiona J.; Cohen, Aaron J.; Dandona, Lalit; Estep, Kara; Ferrari, Alize J.; Frostad, Joseph J.; Fullman, Nancy; Gething, Peter W.; Godwin, William W.; Griswold, Max; Kinfu, Yohannes; Kyu, Hmwe H.; Larson, Heidi J.; Liang, Xiaofeng; Lim, Stephen S.; Liu, Patrick Y.; Lopez, Alan D.; Lozano, Rafael; Marczak, Laurie; Mensah, George A.; Mokdad, Ali H.; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar; Naghavi, Mohsen; Neal, Bruce; Reitsma, Marissa B.; Roth, Gregory A.; Salomon, Joshua A.; Sur, Patrick J.; Vos, Theo; Wagner, Joseph A.; Wang, Haidong; Zhao, Yi; Zhou, Maigeng; Aasvang, Gunn Marit; Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu; Abate, Kalkidan Hassen; Abbafati, Cristiana; Amare, Azmeraw T.; Hoek, Hans W.; Singh, Abhishek; Tura, Abera Kenay

    2016-01-01

    Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform

  20. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Forouzanfar, Mohammad Hossein; Afshin, Ashkan; Alexander, Lily T.; Ross Anderson, H.; Bhutta, Zulfiqar; Biryukov, Stan; Brauer, M.; Burnett, Richard; Cercy, Kelly; Charlson, Fiona J.; Geleijnse, J.M.

    2016-01-01

    Background
    The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform

  1. Theoretical and practical aspects of risk management in contemporary global supply chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Globalization, off-shoring, outsourcing and pressure on cost reduction influence on the increasing complexity of supply chains and lead to higher risk. This may concern supplies, deliveries, manufacturing and transportation. Companies which source from distant countries have to implement risk management system. Examples of companies which use such systems prove, that it is possible to reduce uncertainty. Results concern shorter lead times, better quality and accepted cost level.

  2. A framework for assessing global change risks to forest carbon stocks in the United States.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher W Woodall

    Full Text Available Among terrestrial environments, forests are not only the largest long-term sink of atmospheric carbon (C, but are also susceptible to global change themselves, with potential consequences including alterations of C cycles and potential C emission. To inform global change risk assessment of forest C across large spatial/temporal scales, this study constructed and evaluated a basic risk framework which combined the magnitude of C stocks and their associated probability of stock change in the context of global change across the US. For the purposes of this analysis, forest C was divided into five pools, two live (aboveground and belowground biomass and three dead (dead wood, soil organic matter, and forest floor with a risk framework parameterized using the US's national greenhouse gas inventory and associated forest inventory data across current and projected future Köppen-Geiger climate zones (A1F1 scenario. Results suggest that an initial forest C risk matrix may be constructed to focus attention on short- and long-term risks to forest C stocks (as opposed to implementation in decision making using inventory-based estimates of total stocks and associated estimates of variability (i.e., coefficient of variation among climate zones. The empirical parameterization of such a risk matrix highlighted numerous knowledge gaps: 1 robust measures of the likelihood of forest C stock change under climate change scenarios, 2 projections of forest C stocks given unforeseen socioeconomic conditions (i.e., land-use change, and 3 appropriate social responses to global change events for which there is no contemporary climate/disturbance analog (e.g., severe droughts in the Lake States. Coupling these current technical/social limits of developing a risk matrix to the biological processes of forest ecosystems (i.e., disturbance events and interaction among diverse forest C pools, potential positive feedbacks, and forest resiliency/recovery suggests an operational

  3. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioral, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moesgaard Iburg, Kim

    2016-01-01

    inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group......, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk...... pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood...

  4. A globally-distributed alien invasive species poses risks to United States imperiled species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClure, Meredith L; Burdett, Christopher L; Farnsworth, Matthew L; Sweeney, Steven J; Miller, Ryan S

    2018-03-28

    In the midst of Earth's sixth mass extinction event, non-native species are a driving factor in many imperiled species' declines. One of the most widespread and destructive alien invasive species in the world, wild pigs (Sus scrofa) threaten native species through predation, habitat destruction, competition, and disease transmission. We show that wild pigs co-occur with up to 87.2% of imperiled species in the contiguous U.S. identified as susceptible to their direct impacts, and we project increases in both the number of species at risk and the geographic extent of risks by 2025. Wild pigs may therefore present a severe threat to U.S. imperiled species, with serious implications for management of at-risk species throughout wild pigs' global distribution. We offer guidance for efficient allocation of research effort and conservation resources across species and regions using a simple approach that can be applied to wild pigs and other alien invasive species globally.

  5. A World at Risk: Aggregating Development Trends to Forecast Global Habitat Conversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oakleaf, James R; Kennedy, Christina M; Baruch-Mordo, Sharon; West, Paul C; Gerber, James S; Jarvis, Larissa; Kiesecker, Joseph

    2015-01-01

    A growing and more affluent human population is expected to increase the demand for resources and to accelerate habitat modification, but by how much and where remains unknown. Here we project and aggregate global spatial patterns of expected urban and agricultural expansion, conventional and unconventional oil and gas, coal, solar, wind, biofuels and mining development. Cumulatively, these threats place at risk 20% of the remaining global natural lands (19.68 million km2) and could result in half of the world's biomes becoming >50% converted while doubling and tripling the extent of land converted in South America and Africa, respectively. Regionally, substantial shifts in land conversion could occur in Southern and Western South America, Central and Eastern Africa, and the Central Rocky Mountains of North America. With only 5% of the Earth's at-risk natural lands under strict legal protection, estimating and proactively mitigating multi-sector development risk is critical for curtailing the further substantial loss of nature.

  6. Global potential for carbon sequestration. Geographical distribution, country risk and policy implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benitez, Pablo C.; McCallum, Ian; Obersteiner, Michael; Yamagata, Yoshiki

    2007-01-01

    We have provided a framework for identifying least-cost sites for afforestation and reforestation and deriving carbon sequestration cost curves at a global level in a scenario of limited information. Special attention is given to country risk in developing countries and the sensitivity to spatial datasets. Our model results suggest that within 20 years and considering a carbon price of USD 50/tC, tree-planting activities could offset 1 year of global carbon emissions in the energy sector. However, if we account for country risk considerations-associated with political, economic and financial risks - carbon sequestration is reduced by approximately 60%. With respect to the geography of supply, illustrated by grid-scale maps, we find that most least-cost sites are located in regions of developing countries such as the Sub-Sahara, Southeast Brazil and Southeast Asia. (author)

  7. Global assessment of river flood protection benefits and corresponding residual risks under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Wee Ho; Yamazaki, Dai; Koirala, Sujan; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Kanae, Shinjiro; Dadson, Simon J.; Hall, Jim W.

    2016-04-01

    Global warming increases the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere and this could lead to more intense rainfalls and possibly increasing natural hazards in the form of flooding in some regions. This implies that traditional practice of using historical hydrological records alone is somewhat limited for supporting long-term water infrastructure planning. This has motivated recent global scale studies to evaluate river flood risks (e.g., Hirabayashi et al., 2013, Arnell and Gosling, 2014, Sadoff et al., 2015) and adaptations benefits (e.g., Jongman et al., 2015). To support decision-making in river flood risk reduction, this study takes a further step to examine the benefits and corresponding residual risks for a range of flood protection levels. To do that, we channelled runoff information of a baseline period (forced by observed hydroclimate conditions) and each CMIP5 model (historic and future periods) into a global river routing model called CaMa-Flood (Yamazaki et al., 2011). We incorporated the latest global river width data (Yamazaki et al., 2014) into CaMa-Flood and simulate the river water depth at a spatial resolution of 15 min x 15 min. From the simulated results of baseline period, we use the annual maxima river water depth to fit the Gumbel distribution and prepare the return period-flood risk relationship (involving population and GDP). From the simulated results of CMIP5 model, we also used the annual maxima river water depth to obtain the Gumbel distribution and then estimate the exceedance probability (historic and future periods). We apply the return period-flood risk relationship (above) to the exceedance probability and evaluate the flood protection benefits. We quantify the corresponding residual risks using a mathematical approach that is consistent with the modelling structure of CaMa-Flood. Globally and regionally, we find that the benefits of flood protection level peak somewhere between 20 and 500 years; residual risks diminish

  8. Risk Analysis Reveals Global Hotspots for Marine Debris Ingestion by Sea Turtles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuyler, Q. A.; Wilcox, C.; Townsend, K.; Wedemeyer-Strombel, K.; Balazs, G.; van Sebille, E.; Hardesty, B. D.

    2016-02-01

    Plastic marine debris pollution is rapidly becoming one of the critical environmental concerns facing wildlife in the 21st century. Here we present a risk analysis for plastic ingestion by sea turtles on a global scale. We combined global marine plastic distributions based on ocean drifter data with sea turtle habitat maps to predict exposure levels to plastic pollution. Empirical data from necropsies of deceased animals were then utilised to assess the consequence of exposure to plastics. We modelled the risk (probability of debris ingestion) by incorporating exposure to debris and consequence of exposure, and included life history stage, species of sea turtle, and date of stranding observation as possible additional explanatory factors. Life history stage is the best predictor of debris ingestion, but the best-fit model also incorporates encounter rates within a limited distance from stranding location, marine debris predictions specific to the date of the stranding study, and turtle species. There was no difference in ingestion rates between stranded turtles vs. those caught as bycatch from fishing activity, suggesting that stranded animals are not a biased representation of debris ingestion rates in the background population. Oceanic life-stage sea turtles are at the highest risk of debris ingestion, and olive ridley turtles are the most at-risk species. The regions of highest risk to global sea turtle populations are off of the east coasts of the USA, Australia, and South Africa; the east Indian Ocean, and Southeast Asia. Model results can be used to predict the number of sea turtles globally at risk of debris ingestion. Based on currently available data, initial calculations indicate that up to 52% of sea turtles may have ingested debris.

  9. Risk analysis reveals global hotspots for marine debris ingestion by sea turtles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuyler, Qamar A; Wilcox, Chris; Townsend, Kathy A; Wedemeyer-Strombel, Kathryn R; Balazs, George; van Sebille, Erik; Hardesty, Britta Denise

    2016-02-01

    Plastic marine debris pollution is rapidly becoming one of the critical environmental concerns facing wildlife in the 21st century. Here we present a risk analysis for plastic ingestion by sea turtles on a global scale. We combined global marine plastic distributions based on ocean drifter data with sea turtle habitat maps to predict exposure levels to plastic pollution. Empirical data from necropsies of deceased animals were then utilised to assess the consequence of exposure to plastics. We modelled the risk (probability of debris ingestion) by incorporating exposure to debris and consequence of exposure, and included life history stage, species of sea turtle and date of stranding observation as possible additional explanatory factors. Life history stage is the best predictor of debris ingestion, but the best-fit model also incorporates encounter rates within a limited distance from stranding location, marine debris predictions specific to the date of the stranding study and turtle species. There is no difference in ingestion rates between stranded turtles vs. those caught as bycatch from fishing activity, suggesting that stranded animals are not a biased representation of debris ingestion rates in the background population. Oceanic life-stage sea turtles are at the highest risk of debris ingestion, and olive ridley turtles are the most at-risk species. The regions of highest risk to global sea turtle populations are off of the east coasts of the USA, Australia and South Africa; the east Indian Ocean, and Southeast Asia. Model results can be used to predict the number of sea turtles globally at risk of debris ingestion. Based on currently available data, initial calculations indicate that up to 52% of sea turtles may have ingested debris. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Prevalence of Gestational Diabetes and Risk of Progression to Type 2 Diabetes: a Global Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Yeyi; Zhang, Cuilin

    2016-01-01

    Despite the increasing epidemic of diabetes mellitus affecting populations at different life stages, the global burden of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is not well assessed. Systematically synthesized data on global prevalence estimates of GDM are lacking, particularly among developing countries. The hyperglycemic intrauterine environment as exemplified in pregnancies complicated by GDM might not only reflect but also fuel the epidemic of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). We comprehensively reviewed available data in the past decade in an attempt to estimate the contemporary global prevalence of GDM by country and region. We reviewed the risk of progression from GDM to T2DM as well. Synthesized data demonstrate wide variations in both prevalence estimates of GDM and the risk of progression from GDM to T2DM. Direct comparisons of GDM burden across countries or regions are challenging given the great heterogeneity in screening approaches, diagnostic criteria, and underlying population characteristics. In this regard, collaborative efforts to estimate global GDM prevalence would be a large but important leap forward. Such efforts may have substantial public health implications in terms of informing health policy makers and healthcare providers for disease burden and for developing more targeted and effective diabetes prevention and management strategies globally.

  11. Global assessment of extinction risk to populations of Sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter S Rand

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Concern about the decline of wild salmon has attracted the attention of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN. The IUCN applies quantitative criteria to assess risk of extinction and publishes its results on the Red List of Threatened Species. However, the focus is on the species level and thus may fail to show the risk to populations. The IUCN has adapted their criteria to apply to populations but there exist few examples of this type of assessment. We assessed the status of sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka as a model for application of the IUCN population-level assessments and to provide the first global assessment of the status of an anadromous Pacific salmon. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We found from demographic data that the sockeye salmon species is not presently at risk of extinction. We identified 98 independent populations with varying levels of risk within the species' range. Of these, 5 (5% are already extinct. We analyzed the risk for 62 out of 93 extant populations (67% and found that 17 of these (27% are at risk of extinction. The greatest number and concentration of extinct and threatened populations is in the southern part of the North American range, primarily due to overfishing, freshwater habitat loss, dams, hatcheries, and changing ocean conditions. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Although sockeye salmon are not at risk at the species-level, about one-third of the populations that we analyzed are at risk or already extinct. Without an understanding of risk to biodiversity at the level of populations, the biodiversity loss in salmon would be greatly underrepresented on the Red List. We urge government, conservation organizations, scientists and the public to recognize this limitation of the Red List. We also urge recognition that about one-third of sockeye salmon global population diversity is at risk of extinction or already extinct.

  12. Comparison and Evaluation of Global Scale Studies of Vulnerability and Risks to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muccione, Veruska; Allen, Simon K.; Huggel, Christian; Birkmann, Joern

    2015-04-01

    Understanding the present and future distribution of different climate change impacts and vulnerability to climate change is a central subject in the context of climate justice and international climate policy. Commonly, it is claimed that poor countries that contributed little to anthropogenic climate change are those most affected and most vulnerable to climate change. Such statements are backed by a number of global-scale vulnerability studies, which identified poor countries as most vulnerable. However, some studies have challenged this view, likewise highlighting the high vulnerability of richer countries. Overall, no consensus has been reached so far about which concept of vulnerability should be applied and what type of indicators should be considered. Furthermore, there is little agreement which specific countries are most vulnerable. This is a major concern in view of the need to inform international climate policy, all the more if such assessments should contribute to allocate climate adaptation funds as was invoked at some instances. We argue that next to the analysis of who is most vulnerable, it is also important to better understand and compare different vulnerability profiles assessed in present global studies. We perform a systematic literature review of global vulnerability assessments with the scope to highlight vulnerability distribution patterns. We then compare these distributions with global risk distributions in line with revised and adopted concepts by most recent IPCC reports. It emerges that improved differentiation of key drivers of risk and the understanding of different vulnerability profiles are important contributions, which can inform future adaptation policies at the regional and national level. This can change the perspective on, and basis for distributional issues in view of climate burden share, and therefore can have implications for UNFCCC financing instruments (e.g. Green Climate Fund). However, in order to better compare

  13. A global evolutionary and metabolic analysis of human obesity gene risk variants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castillo, Joseph J; Hazlett, Zachary S; Orlando, Robert A; Garver, William S

    2017-09-05

    It is generally accepted that the selection of gene variants during human evolution optimized energy metabolism that now interacts with our obesogenic environment to increase the prevalence of obesity. The purpose of this study was to perform a global evolutionary and metabolic analysis of human obesity gene risk variants (110 human obesity genes with 127 nearest gene risk variants) identified using genome-wide association studies (GWAS) to enhance our knowledge of early and late genotypes. As a result of determining the mean frequency of these obesity gene risk variants in 13 available populations from around the world our results provide evidence for the early selection of ancestral risk variants (defined as selection before migration from Africa) and late selection of derived risk variants (defined as selection after migration from Africa). Our results also provide novel information for association of these obesity genes or encoded proteins with diverse metabolic pathways and other human diseases. The overall results indicate a significant differential evolutionary pattern for the selection of obesity gene ancestral and derived risk variants proposed to optimize energy metabolism in varying global environments and complex association with metabolic pathways and other human diseases. These results are consistent with obesity genes that encode proteins possessing a fundamental role in maintaining energy metabolism and survival during the course of human evolution. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  14. Globalization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Plum, Maja

    Globalization is often referred to as external to education - a state of affair facing the modern curriculum with numerous challenges. In this paper it is examined as internal to curriculum; analysed as a problematization in a Foucaultian sense. That is, as a complex of attentions, worries, ways...... of reasoning, producing curricular variables. The analysis is made through an example of early childhood curriculum in Danish Pre-school, and the way the curricular variable of the pre-school child comes into being through globalization as a problematization, carried forth by the comparative practices of PISA...

  15. Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    F. Gerard Adams

    2008-01-01

    The rapid globalization of the world economy is causing fundamental changes in patterns of trade and finance. Some economists have argued that globalization has arrived and that the world is “flat†. While the geographic scope of markets has increased, the author argues that new patterns of trade and finance are a result of the discrepancies between “old†countries and “new†. As the differences are gradually wiped out, particularly if knowledge and technology spread worldwide, the t...

  16. Distribution of major health risks: findings from the Global Burden of Disease study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anthony Rodgers

    2004-10-01

    Full Text Available Most analyses of risks to health focus on the total burden of their aggregate effects. The distribution of risk-factor-attributable disease burden, for example by age or exposure level, can inform the selection and targeting of specific interventions and programs, and increase cost-effectiveness.For 26 selected risk factors, expert working groups conducted comprehensive reviews of data on risk-factor exposure and hazard for 14 epidemiological subregions of the world, by age and sex. Age-sex-subregion-population attributable fractions were estimated and applied to the mortality and burden of disease estimates from the World Health Organization Global Burden of Disease database. Where possible, exposure levels were assessed as continuous measures, or as multiple categories. The proportion of risk-factor-attributable burden in different population subgroups, defined by age, sex, and exposure level, was estimated. For major cardiovascular risk factors (blood pressure, cholesterol, tobacco use, fruit and vegetable intake, body mass index, and physical inactivity 43%-61% of attributable disease burden occurred between the ages of 15 and 59 y, and 87% of alcohol-attributable burden occurred in this age group. Most of the disease burden for continuous risks occurred in those with only moderately raised levels, not among those with levels above commonly used cut-points, such as those with hypertension or obesity. Of all disease burden attributable to being underweight during childhood, 55% occurred among children 1-3 standard deviations below the reference population median, and the remainder occurred among severely malnourished children, who were three or more standard deviations below median.Many major global risks are widely spread in a population, rather than restricted to a minority. Population-based strategies that seek to shift the whole distribution of risk factors often have the potential to produce substantial reductions in disease burden.

  17. Coping with global environmental change, disasters and security. Threats, challenges, vulnerabilities and risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brauch, Hans Guenter [Freie Univ. Berlin (Germany). Dept. of Political and Social Sciences; UNU-EHS, Bonn (DE). College of Associated Scientists and Advisors (CASA); Oswald Spring, Ursula [National Univ. of Mexico, Cuernavaca (MX). Regional Multidisciplinary Research Centre (CRIM); Mesjasz, Czeslaw [Cracow Univ. of Exonomics (Poland). Faculty of Management; Grin, John [Amsterdam Univ. (Netherlands). Dept. of Political Science; Dutch Knowledge network for Systems Innovations and Transitions (KSI), Amsterdam (Netherlands); Kameri-Mbote, Patricia [Strathmore Univ., Nairobi (Kenya). Dept. of Law; International Environmental Law Research Centre, Nairobi (Kenya); Chourou, Bechir [Univ. of Tunis-Carthage, Hammam-Chatt (Tunisia); Dunay, Pal [Geneva Centre for Security Policy (Switzerland). International Training Course in Security Policy; Birkmann, Joern (eds.) [United Nations Univ. (UNU), Bonn (DE). Inst. for Environment and Human Security (EHS)

    2011-07-01

    This policy-focused Global Environmental and Human Security Handbook for the Anthropo-cene (GEHSHA) addresses new security threats, challenges, vulnerabilities and risks posed by global environmental change and disasters. In 6 forewords, 5 preface essays 95 peer reviewed chapcountries analyse in 10 parts concepts of military and political hard security and economic, social, environmental soft security with a regional focus on the Near East, North and Sub-Sahara Africa and Asia and on hazards in urban centres. The major focus is on coping with global environmental change: climate change, desertification, water, food and health and with hazards and strategies on social vulnerability and resilience building and scientific, international, regional and national political strategies, policies and measures including early warning of conflicts and hazards. The book proposes a political geo-ecology and discusses a 'Fourth Green Revolution' for the Anthropocene era of earth history. (orig.)

  18. A global building inventory for earthquake loss estimation and risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, K.; Wald, D.; Porter, K.

    2010-01-01

    We develop a global database of building inventories using taxonomy of global building types for use in near-real-time post-earthquake loss estimation and pre-earthquake risk analysis, for the U.S. Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program. The database is available for public use, subject to peer review, scrutiny, and open enhancement. On a country-by-country level, it contains estimates of the distribution of building types categorized by material, lateral force resisting system, and occupancy type (residential or nonresidential, urban or rural). The database draws on and harmonizes numerous sources: (1) UN statistics, (2) UN Habitat's demographic and health survey (DHS) database, (3) national housing censuses, (4) the World Housing Encyclopedia and (5) other literature. ?? 2010, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  19. Assessing global exposure and vulnerability towards natural hazards: the Disaster Risk Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Peduzzi

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a model of factors influencing levels of human losses from natural hazards at the global scale, for the period 1980–2000. This model was designed for the United Nations Development Programme as a building stone of the Disaster Risk Index (DRI, which aims at monitoring the evolution of risk. Assessing what countries are most at risk requires considering various types of hazards, such as droughts, floods, cyclones and earthquakes. Before assessing risk, these four hazards were modelled using GIS and overlaid with a model of population distribution in order to extract human exposure. Human vulnerability was measured by crossing exposure with selected socio-economic parameters. The model evaluates to what extent observed past losses are related to population exposure and vulnerability. Results reveal that human vulnerability is mostly linked with country development level and environmental quality. A classification of countries is provided, as well as recommendations on data improvement for future use of the model.

  20. An updated prediction model of the global risk of cardiovascular disease in HIV-positive persons

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Friis-Møller, Nina; Ryom, Lene; Smith, Colette

    2016-01-01

    ,663 HIV-positive persons from 20 countries in Europe and Australia, who were free of CVD at entry into the Data-collection on Adverse Effects of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study. Cox regression models (full and reduced) were developed that predict the risk of a global CVD endpoint. The predictive performance...... significantly predicted risk more accurately than the recalibrated Framingham model (Harrell's c-statistic of 0.791, 0.783 and 0.766 for the D:A:D full, D:A:D reduced, and Framingham models respectively; p models also more accurately predicted five-year CVD-risk for key prognostic subgroups...... to quantify risk and to guide preventive care....

  1. Environmental and Health Benefits and Risks of a Global Hydrogen Economy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubey, M.; Horowitz, L. W.; Rahn, T. A.; Kinnison, D. E.

    2003-12-01

    Rapid development in hydrogen fuel-cell technologies will create a strong impetus for a massive hydrogen supply and distribution infrastructure in the coming decades. Hydrogen provides an efficient energy carrier that promises to enhance urban and regional air quality that will benefit human health. It could also reduce risks of climate change if large-scale hydrogen production by renewable or nuclear energy sources becomes viable. While it is well known that the byproduct of energy produced from hydrogen is water vapor, it is not well known that the storage and transfer of hydrogen is inevitably accompanied by measurable leakage of hydrogen. Unintended consequences of hydrogen leakage include reduction in global oxidative capacity, changes in tropospheric ozone, and increase in stratospheric water that would exacerbate halogen induced ozone losses as well as impact the earth's radiation budget and climate. Stratospheric ozone depletion would increase exposure to harmful ultraviolet radiation and increased risk to melanoma. We construct plausible global hydrogen energy use and leak scenarios and assess their impacts using global 3-D simulations by the Model for Ozone And Related Trace species (MOZART). The hydrogen fluxes and photochemistry in our model successfully reproduce the contemporary hydrogen cycle as observed by a network of remote global stations. Our intent is to determine environmentally tolerable leak rates and also facilitate a gradual phasing in of a hydrogen economy over the next several decades as the elimination of the use of halocarbons gradually reduces halogen induced stratospheric ozone loss rates. We stress that the future evolution of microbial soil sink of hydrogen that determines its current lifetime (about 2 years) is the principal source of uncertainty in our assessment. We propose global monitoring of hydrogen and its deuterium content to define a baseline and track its budget to responsibly prepare for a global hydrogen economy.

  2. Reaping Environmental Benefits of a Global Hydrogen Economy: How Large, Fow Soon, and at What Risks?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubey, M. K.; Horowitz, L. W.; Rahn, T. A.; Kinnison, D. E.

    2004-12-01

    The Western world has taken an aggressive posture to transition to a global hydrogen economy. While numerous technical challenges need to be addressed to achieve this it is timely to examine the environmental benefits and risks of this transition. Hydrogen provides an efficient energy carrier that promises to enhance urban and regional air quality that will benefit human health. It could also reduce risks of climate change if large-scale hydrogen production by renewable or nuclear energy sources becomes viable. While it is well known that the byproduct of energy produced from hydrogen is water vapor, it is not well known that the storage and transfer of hydrogen is inevitably accompanied by measurable leakage of hydrogen. Unintended consequences of hydrogen leakage include reduction in global oxidative capacity, changes in tropospheric ozone, and increase in stratospheric water that would exacerbate halogen induced ozone losses as well as impact the earth's radiation budget and climate. We construct plausible global hydrogen energy use and leak scenarios and assess their impacts using global 3-D simulations by the Model for Ozone And Related Trace species (MOZART). The hydrogen fluxes and photochemistry in our model successfully reproduce the contemporary hydrogen cycle as observed by a network of remote global stations. Our intent is to determine environmentally tolerable leak rates and also facilitate a gradual phasing in of a hydrogen economy over the next several decades as the elimination of the use of halocarbons gradually reduces halogen induced stratospheric ozone loss rates. We stress that the leak rates in global hydrogen infrastructure and the future evolution of microbial soil sink of hydrogen that determines its current lifetime (about 2 years) are principal sources of uncertainty in our assessment.

  3. Multi-Model Projections of River Flood Risk in Europe under Global Warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorenzo Alfieri

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge on the costs of natural disasters under climate change is key information for planning adaptation and mitigation strategies of future climate policies. Impact models for large scale flood risk assessment have made leaps forward in the past few years, thanks to the increased availability of high resolution climate projections and of information on local exposure and vulnerability to river floods. Yet, state-of-the-art flood impact models rely on a number of input data and techniques that can substantially influence their results. This work compares estimates of river flood risk in Europe from three recent case studies, assuming global warming scenarios of 1.5, 2, and 3 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels. The assessment is based on comparing ensemble projections of expected damage and population affected at country level. Differences and common points between the three cases are shown, to point out main sources of uncertainty, strengths, and limitations. In addition, the multi-model comparison helps identify regions with the largest agreement on specific changes in flood risk. Results show that global warming is linked to substantial increase in flood risk over most countries in Central and Western Europe at all warming levels. In Eastern Europe, the average change in flood risk is smaller and the multi-model agreement is poorer.

  4. Global Hotspots of Conflict Risk between Food Security and Biodiversity Conservation

    OpenAIRE

    Molotoks, Amy; Dawson, Terence Peter

    2017-01-01

    The global challenges of food security and biodiversity are rarely addressed together, though recently there has been an increasing awareness that the two issues are closely related. The majority of land available for agriculture is already used for food production, but despite the productivity gains, one in nine people worldwide are classified as food insecure. There is an increasing risk that addressing food insecurity through methods such as agricultural expansion orintensification could l...

  5. Public risk-reduction measures: cost-effectiveness from a global point-of-view

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oliveira, L.F.S. de; Motta Barros, E.B. da; Fleming, P.V.; Rosa, L.P.

    1985-05-01

    A review of systemic or global approach to cost-effectiveness analysis of risk-reduction measures is presented, and its advantages and limitations are discussed. The method is applied for problem of the cost-effectiveness of increasing the Angra 3 reactor containment wall thickness from 60cm to 180cm thick, in case of a direct commercial aircraft crash on it. (Author) [pt

  6. Seismic and wind vulnerability assessment for the GAR-13 global risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Yamín Lacouture, Luis Eduardo; Hurtado Chaparro, Alvaro Ivan; Barbat Barbat, Horia Alejandro; Cardona Arboleda, Omar Dario

    2014-01-01

    A general methodology to evaluate vulnerability functions suitable for a probabilistic global risk assessment is proposed. The methodology is partially based in the methodological approach of the Multi-hazard Loss Estimation Methodology (Hazus) developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The vulnerability assessment process considers the resolution, information and limitations established for both the hazard and exposure models adopted. Seismic and wind vulnerability function...

  7. A global assessment of wildfire risks to human and environmental water security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinne, François-Nicolas; Parisien, Marc-André; Flannigan, Mike; Miller, Carol; Bladon, Kevin D.

    2017-04-01

    Extreme wildfire events extensively affect hydrosystem stability and generate an important threat to the reliability of the water supply for human and natural communities. While actively studied at the watershed scale, the development of a global vision of wildfire risk to water security has only been undertaken recently, pointing at potential water security concerns in an era of global changes. In order to address this concern, we propose a global-scale analysis of the wildfire risk to surface water supplies based on the Driving forces-Pressures-States-Impacts-Responses (DPSIR) framework. This framework relies on the cause-and-effect relationships existing between the five categories of the DPSIR chain. Based on the literature, we gathered an extensive set of spatial indicators relevant to fire-induced hydrological hazards and water consumption patterns by human and natural communities. Each indicator was assigned a DPSIR category. Then, we collapsed the information in each category using a principal component analysis in order to extract the most relevant pixel-based information provided by each spatial indicator. Finally, we compiled our five categories using an additive indexation process to produce a spatially-explicit index of the wildfire-water risk (WWR). For comparison purposes, we aggregated index scores by global hydrological regions, or hydrobelts, for analysis. Overall, our results show a distinct pattern of medium-to-high risk levels in areas where sizeable wildfire activity, water resources, and water consumption are concomitant, which mainly encompasses temperate and sub-tropical zones. A closer look at hydrobelts reveals differences in the factors driving the risk, with fire activity being the primary factor of risk in the circumboreal forest, and freshwater resource density being prevalent in tropical areas. We also identified major urban areas across the world whose source waters should be protected from extreme fire events, particularly when

  8. [Integrated Management Area of Vascular Risk: A new organisational model for global control of risk factors].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armario, P; Jericó, C; Vila, L; Freixa, R; Martin-Castillejos, C; Rotllan, M

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD), is a major cause of morbidity and mortality that increases the cost of care. Currently there is a low degree of control of the main cardiovascular risk factors, although we have a good therapeutic arsenal. To achieve the improvement of this reality, a good coordination and multidisciplinary participation are essential. The development of new organizational models such as the Integrated Management Area of Vascular Risk can facilitate the therapeutic harmonization and unification of the health messages offered by different levels of care, based on clinical practice guidelines, in order to provide patient-centred integrated care. Copyright © 2016 SEH-LELHA. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  9. The risk of water scarcity at different levels of global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schewe, Jacob; Sharpe, Simon

    2015-04-01

    Water scarcity is a threat to human well-being and economic development in many countries today. Future climate change is expected to exacerbate the global water crisis by reducing renewable freshwater resources different world regions, many of which are already dry. Studies of future water scarcity often focus on most-likely, or highest-confidence, scenarios. However, multi-model projections of water resources reveal large uncertainty ranges, which are due to different types of processes (climate, hydrology, human) and are therefore not easy to reduce. Thus, central estimates or multi-model mean results may be insufficient to inform policy and management. Here we present an alternative, risk-based approach. We use an ensemble of multiple global climate and hydrological models to quantify the likelihood of crossing a given water scarcity threshold under different levels of global warming. This approach allows assessing the risk associated with any particular, pre-defined threshold (or magnitude of change that must be avoided), regardless of whether it lies in the center or in the tails of the uncertainty distribution. We show applications of this method on the country and river basin scale, illustrate the effects of societal processes on the resulting risk estimates, and discuss the further potential of this approach for research and stakeholder dialogue.

  10. Globalization and eating disorder risk: Peer influence, perceived social norms, and adolescent disordered eating in Fiji

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerbasi, Margaret E.; Richards, Lauren K.; Thomas, Jennifer J.; Agnew-Blais, Jessica C.; Thompson-Brenner, Heather; Gilman, Stephen E.; Becker, Anne E.

    2014-01-01

    Objective The increasing global health burden imposed by eating disorders warrants close examination of social exposures associated with globalization that potentially elevate risk during the critical developmental period of adolescence in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The study aim was to investigate the association of peer influence and perceived social norms with adolescent eating pathology in Fiji, a LMIC undergoing rapid social change. Method We measured peer influence on eating concerns (with the Inventory of Peer Influence on Eating Concerns; IPIEC), perceived peer norms associated with disordered eating and body concerns, perceived community cultural norms, and individual cultural orientations in a representative sample of school-going ethnic Fijian adolescent girls (n=523). We then developed a multivariable linear regression model to examine their relation to eating pathology (measured by the Eating Disorder Examination-Questionnaire; EDE-Q). Results We found independent and statistically significant associations between both IPIEC scores and our proxy for perceived social norms specific to disordered eating (both p disordered eating may elevate risk for disordered eating in Fiji, during the critical developmental period of adolescence. Replication and extension of these research findings in other populations undergoing rapid social transition—and where globalization is also influencing local social norms—may enrich etiologic models and inform strategies to mitigate risk. PMID:25139374

  11. Globalization and eating disorder risk: peer influence, perceived social norms, and adolescent disordered eating in Fiji.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerbasi, Margaret E; Richards, Lauren K; Thomas, Jennifer J; Agnew-Blais, Jessica C; Thompson-Brenner, Heather; Gilman, Stephen E; Becker, Anne E

    2014-11-01

    The increasing global health burden imposed by eating disorders warrants close examination of social exposures associated with globalization that potentially elevate risk during the critical developmental period of adolescence in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The study aim was to investigate the association of peer influence and perceived social norms with adolescent eating pathology in Fiji, a LMIC undergoing rapid social change. We measured peer influence on eating concerns (with the Inventory of Peer Influence on Eating Concerns; IPIEC), perceived peer norms associated with disordered eating and body concerns, perceived community cultural norms, and individual cultural orientations in a representative sample of school-going ethnic Fijian adolescent girls (n = 523). We then developed a multivariable linear regression model to examine their relation to eating pathology (measured by the Eating Disorder Examination-Questionnaire; EDE-Q). We found independent and statistically significant associations between both IPIEC scores and our proxy for perceived social norms specific to disordered eating (both p peer influence as well as perceived social norms relevant to disordered eating may elevate risk for disordered eating in Fiji, during the critical developmental period of adolescence. Replication and extension of these research findings in other populations undergoing rapid social transition--and where globalization is also influencing local social norms--may enrich etiologic models and inform strategies to mitigate risk. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. Economic growth, urbanization, globalization, and the risks of emerging infectious diseases in China: A review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Tong; Perrings, Charles; Kinzig, Ann; Collins, James P; Minteer, Ben A; Daszak, Peter

    2017-02-01

    Three interrelated world trends may be exacerbating emerging zoonotic risks: income growth, urbanization, and globalization. Income growth is associated with rising animal protein consumption in developing countries, which increases the conversion of wild lands to livestock production, and hence the probability of zoonotic emergence. Urbanization implies the greater concentration and connectedness of people, which increases the speed at which new infections are spread. Globalization-the closer integration of the world economy-has facilitated pathogen spread among countries through the growth of trade and travel. High-risk areas for the emergence and spread of infectious disease are where these three trends intersect with predisposing socioecological conditions including the presence of wild disease reservoirs, agricultural practices that increase contact between wildlife and livestock, and cultural practices that increase contact between humans, wildlife, and livestock. Such an intersection occurs in China, which has been a "cradle" of zoonoses from the Black Death to avian influenza and SARS. Disease management in China is thus critical to the mitigation of global zoonotic risks.

  13. Risk Assessment Method for Offshore Structure Based on Global Sensitivity Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zou Tao

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on global sensitivity analysis (GSA, this paper proposes a new risk assessment method for an offshore structure design. This method quantifies all the significances among random variables and their parameters at first. And by comparing the degree of importance, all minor factors would be negligible. Then, the global uncertainty analysis work would be simplified. Global uncertainty analysis (GUA is an effective way to study the complexity and randomness of natural events. Since field measured data and statistical results often have inevitable errors and uncertainties which lead to inaccurate prediction and analysis, the risk in the design stage of offshore structures caused by uncertainties in environmental loads, sea level, and marine corrosion must be taken into account. In this paper, the multivariate compound extreme value distribution model (MCEVD is applied to predict the extreme sea state of wave, current, and wind. The maximum structural stress and deformation of a Jacket platform are analyzed and compared with different design standards. The calculation result sufficiently demonstrates the new risk assessment method’s rationality and security.

  14. The global limits and population at risk of soil-transmitted helminth infections in 2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pullan Rachel L

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Understanding the global limits of transmission of soil-transmitted helminth (STH species is essential for quantifying the population at-risk and the burden of disease. This paper aims to define these limits on the basis of environmental and socioeconomic factors, and additionally seeks to investigate the effects of urbanisation and economic development on STH transmission, and estimate numbers at-risk of infection with Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura and hookworm in 2010. Methods A total of 4,840 geo-referenced estimates of infection prevalence were abstracted from the Global Atlas of Helminth Infection and related to a range of environmental factors to delineate the biological limits of transmission. The relationship between STH transmission and urbanisation and economic development was investigated using high resolution population surfaces and country-level socioeconomic indicators, respectively. Based on the identified limits, the global population at risk of STH transmission in 2010 was estimated. Results High and low land surface temperature and extremely arid environments were found to limit STH transmission, with differential limits identified for each species. There was evidence that the prevalence of A. lumbricoides and of T. trichiura infection was statistically greater in peri-urban areas compared to urban and rural areas, whilst the prevalence of hookworm was highest in rural areas. At national levels, no clear socioeconomic correlates of transmission were identified, with the exception that little or no infection was observed for countries with a per capita gross domestic product greater than US$ 20,000. Globally in 2010, an estimated 5.3 billion people, including 1.0 billion school-aged children, lived in areas stable for transmission of at least one STH species, with 69% of these individuals living in Asia. A further 143 million (31.1 million school-aged children lived in areas of unstable

  15. Contribution of occupational risk factors to the global burden of disease - a summary of findings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fingerhut, M.; Driscoll, T.; Nelson, D.I.; Concha-Barrientos, M.; Punnett, L.; Pruss-Ustin, A.; Steenland, K.; Leigh, J.; Corvalan, C. [NIOSH, Cincinnati, OH (United States)

    2005-07-01

    The World Health Organization conducted a comparative risk assessment to ascertain the contributions of 26 risk factors to the global burden of disease. Five occupational risk factors accounted for an estimated 37% of back pain, 16% of hearing loss, 13% of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, 11% of asthma, 9% of lung cancer, 8% of injuries, and 2% of leukemia worldwide. Virtually all cases of silicosis, asbestosis, and coal workers' pneumoconiosis were work-related. Contaminated sharps injuries accounted for 40% of hepatitis B, 40% of hepatitis C, and 4% of HIV/AlDS infections among health care workers. Data limitations, primarily in developing countries, prevented the inclusion of other major occupational risk factors. These selected occupational risks accounted for about 850,000 deaths and 24 million years of healthy life lost each year. The deaths due to these selected occupational risk factors constitute only 43% of the International Labour Organization's estimate of 2 million deaths worldwide due to work-related risks.

  16. Yield risks in global maize markets: Historical evidence and projections in key regions of the world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nelson B. Villoria

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Simultaneous worldwide crop failures stemming from a more unstable climate may reduce the scope for international trade to compensate food shortages and stabilize food prices across the various regions of the world. Understanding the effects of changes in crop productivity on global markets requires knowledge about the extent to which crop yields may be systematically related across producing and consuming centers. This short communication contributes to this knowledge by investigating the potential changes in the strength of two key sources of supply risks in global maize markets: yield variance and cross-country yield correlation. We focus on the largest producing and consuming countries of the world. We capitalize on yield projections from the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison project. Exploratory analysis of the skill of the underlying GGCMI models in reproducing key moments of the distribution of observed yields reveals that they overstate observed variances but faithfully reproduce observed patterns of cross-country correlations. We find no evidence of an increase in the degree of cross-country dependency of maize yields. We also find a higher incidence of what would be considered extremely low maize yields by present-time standards stemming from the projected downward trend in yields levels toward mid-century. The weak dependency of maize yields across countries, an the possibility of reducing the higher incidence of extremes through policies aimed to reverse the climate-induced downward trends in yields, suggest that international trade can become a valuable tool to ameliorate the effects of more unstable crop yields. Keywords: Extremely low yields, Maize markets, Food prices, Agricultural yields, Systemic risk in agriculture, Global agriculture, AgMIP, Global gridded crop model intercomparison

  17. Global projections of drought hazard in a warming climate: a prime for disaster risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrão, Hugo; Naumann, Gustavo; Barbosa, Paulo

    2018-03-01

    Projections of drought hazard ( dH) changes have been mapped from five bias-corrected climate models and analyzed at the global level under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The motivation for this study is the observation that drought risk is increasing globally and the effective regulation of prevention and adaptation measures depends on dH magnitude and its distribution for the future. Based on the Weighted Anomaly of Standardized Precipitation index, dH changes have been assessed for mid-(2021-2050) and late-century (2071-2099). With a few exceptions, results show a likely increase in global dH between the historical years (1971-2000) and both future time periods under all RCPs. Notwithstanding this worsening trend, it was found that projections of dH changes for most regions are neither robust nor significant in the near-future. By the end of the century, greater increases are projected for RCPs describing stronger radiative forcing. Under RCP8.5, statistically significant dH changes emerge for global Mediterranean ecosystems and the Amazon region, which are identified as possible hotspots for future water security issues. Taken together, projections of dH changes point towards two dilemmas: (1) in the near-term, stake-holders are left worrying about projected increasing dH over large regions, but lack of actionable model agreement to take effective decisions related to local prevention and adaptation initiatives; (2) in the long-term, models demonstrate remarkable agreement, but stake-holders lack actionable knowledge to manage potential impacts far distant from actual human-dominated environments. We conclude that the major challenge for risk management is not to adapt human populations or their activities to dH changes, but to progress on global initiatives that mitigate their impacts in the whole carbon cycle by late-century.

  18. A New Breed of Database System: Volcano Global Risk Identification and Analysis Project (VOGRIPA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crosweller, H. S.; Sparks, R. S.; Siebert, L.

    2009-12-01

    VOGRIPA originated as part of the Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP) that is being co-ordinated from the Earth Institute of Columbia University under the auspices of the United Nations and World Bank. GRIP is a five-year programme aiming at improving global knowledge about risk from natural hazards and is part of the international response to the catastrophic 2004 Asian tsunami. VOGRIPA is also a formal IAVCEI project. The objectives of VOGRIPA are to create a global database of volcanic activity, hazards and vulnerability information that can be analysed to identify locations at high risk from volcanism, gaps in knowledge about hazards and risk, and will allow scientists and disaster managers at specific locations to analyse risk within a global context of systematic information. It is this added scope of risk and vulnerability as well as hazard which sets VOGRIPA apart from most previous databases. The University of Bristol is the central coordinating centre for the project, which is an international partnership including the Smithsonian Institution, the Geological Survey of Japan, the Earth Observatory of Singapore (Chris Newhall), the British Geological Survey, the University of Buffalo (SUNY) and Munich Re. The partnership is intended to grow and any individuals or institutions who are able to contribute resources to VOGRIPA objectives are welcome to participate. Work has already begun (funded principally by Munich Re) on populating a database of large magnitude explosive eruptions reaching back to the Quaternary, with extreme-value statistics being used to evaluate the magnitude-frequency relationship of such events, and also an assessment of how the quality of records affect the results. The following 4 years of funding from the European Research Council for VOGRIPA will be used to establish further international collaborations in order to develop different aspects of the database, with the data being accessible online once it is sufficiently

  19. Communicating global cardiovascular risk: are icon arrays better than numerical estimates in improving understanding, recall and perception of risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz, Jorge G; Andrade, Allen D; Garcia-Retamero, Rocio; Anam, Ramanakumar; Rodriguez, Remberto; Sharit, Joseph

    2013-12-01

    Experts recommend that adults have their global cardiovascular risk assessed. We investigated whether icon arrays increase understanding, recall, perception of CVR, and behavioral intent as compared with numerical information. Male outpatient veterans, at an intermediate to high cardiovascular risk participated in a randomized controlled trial of a computer tutorial presenting individualized risk. Message format was presented in 3 formats: percentages, frequencies, and frequencies with icon arrays. We assessed understanding immediately (T1) and recall at 20 min (T2) and 2 weeks (T3) after the intervention. We assessed perceptions of importance/seriousness, intent to adhere, and self-efficacy at T1. Self-reported adherence was assessed at T3. One-hundred and twenty male veterans participated. Age, education, race, health literacy and numeracy were comparable at baseline. There were no differences in understanding at T1 [p = .31] and recall at T3 [p = .10]. Accuracy was inferior with frequencies with icon arrays than percentages or frequencies at T2 [p ≤ .001]. There were no differences in perception of seriousness and importance for heart disease, behavioral intent, self-efficacy, actual adherence and satisfaction. Icon arrays may impair short-term recall of CVR. Icon arrays will not necessarily result in better understanding and recall of medical risk in all patients. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

  20. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-10-08

    The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors-the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56

  1. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forouzanfar, Mohammad H; Alexander, Lily; Anderson, H Ross; Bachman, Victoria F; Biryukov, Stan; Brauer, Michael; Burnett, Richard; Casey, Daniel; Coates, Matthew M; Cohen, Aaron; Delwiche, Kristen; Estep, Kara; Frostad, Joseph J; Astha, K C; Kyu, Hmwe H; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar; Ng, Marie; Slepak, Erica Leigh; Thomas, Bernadette A; Wagner, Joseph; Aasvang, Gunn Marit; Abbafati, Cristiana; Abbasoglu Ozgoren, Ayse; Abd-Allah, Foad; Abera, Semaw F; Aboyans, Victor; Abraham, Biju; Abraham, Jerry Puthenpurakal; Abubakar, Ibrahim; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M E; Aburto, Tania C; Achoki, Tom; Adelekan, Ademola; Adofo, Koranteng; Adou, Arsène K; Adsuar, José C; Afshin, Ashkan; Agardh, Emilie E; Al Khabouri, Mazin J; Al Lami, Faris H; Alam, Sayed Saidul; Alasfoor, Deena; Albittar, Mohammed I; Alegretti, Miguel A; Aleman, Alicia V; Alemu, Zewdie A; Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael; Alhabib, Samia; Ali, Raghib; Ali, Mohammed K; Alla, François; Allebeck, Peter; Allen, Peter J; Alsharif, Ubai; Alvarez, Elena; Alvis-Guzman, Nelson; Amankwaa, Adansi A; Amare, Azmeraw T; Ameh, Emmanuel A; Ameli, Omid; Amini, Heresh; Ammar, Walid; Anderson, Benjamin O; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T; Anwari, Palwasha; Argeseanu Cunningham, Solveig; Arnlöv, Johan; Arsenijevic, Valentina S Arsic; Artaman, Al; Asghar, Rana J; Assadi, Reza; Atkins, Lydia S; Atkinson, Charles; Avila, Marco A; Awuah, Baffour; Badawi, Alaa; Bahit, Maria C; Bakfalouni, Talal; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Balalla, Shivanthi; Balu, Ravi Kumar; Banerjee, Amitava; Barber, Ryan M; Barker-Collo, Suzanne L; Barquera, Simon; Barregard, Lars; Barrero, Lope H; Barrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh; Basto-Abreu, Ana C; Basu, Arindam; Basu, Sanjay; Basulaiman, Mohammed O; Batis Ruvalcaba, Carolina; Beardsley, Justin; Bedi, Neeraj; Bekele, Tolesa; Bell, Michelle L; Benjet, Corina; Bennett, Derrick A; Benzian, Habib; Bernabé, Eduardo; Beyene, Tariku J; Bhala, Neeraj; Bhalla, Ashish; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A; Bikbov, Boris; Bin Abdulhak, Aref A; Blore, Jed D; Blyth, Fiona M; Bohensky, Megan A; Bora Başara, Berrak; Borges, Guilherme; Bornstein, Natan M; Bose, Dipan; Boufous, Soufiane; Bourne, Rupert R; Brainin, Michael; Brazinova, Alexandra; Breitborde, Nicholas J; Brenner, Hermann; Briggs, Adam D M; Broday, David M; Brooks, Peter M; Bruce, Nigel G; Brugha, Traolach S; Brunekreef, Bert; Buchbinder, Rachelle; Bui, Linh N; Bukhman, Gene; Bulloch, Andrew G; Burch, Michael; Burney, Peter G J; Campos-Nonato, Ismael R; Campuzano, Julio C; Cantoral, Alejandra J; Caravanos, Jack; Cárdenas, Rosario; Cardis, Elisabeth; Carpenter, David O; Caso, Valeria; Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A; Castro, Ruben E; Catalá-López, Ferrán; Cavalleri, Fiorella; Çavlin, Alanur; Chadha, Vineet K; Chang, Jung-Chen; Charlson, Fiona J; Chen, Honglei; Chen, Wanqing; Chen, Zhengming; Chiang, Peggy P; Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Christophi, Costas A; Chuang, Ting-Wu; Chugh, Sumeet S; Cirillo, Massimo; Claßen, Thomas K D; Colistro, Valentina; Colomar, Mercedes; Colquhoun, Samantha M; Contreras, Alejandra G; Cooper, Cyrus; Cooperrider, Kimberly; Cooper, Leslie T; Coresh, Josef; Courville, Karen J; Criqui, Michael H; Cuevas-Nasu, Lucia; Damsere-Derry, James; Danawi, Hadi; Dandona, Lalit; Dandona, Rakhi; Dargan, Paul I; Davis, Adrian; Davitoiu, Dragos V; Dayama, Anand; de Castro, E Filipa; De la Cruz-Góngora, Vanessa; De Leo, Diego; de Lima, Graça; Degenhardt, Louisa; del Pozo-Cruz, Borja; Dellavalle, Robert P; Deribe, Kebede; Derrett, Sarah; Des Jarlais, Don C; Dessalegn, Muluken; deVeber, Gabrielle A; Devries, Karen M; Dharmaratne, Samath D; Dherani, Mukesh K; Dicker, Daniel; Ding, Eric L; Dokova, Klara; Dorsey, E Ray; Driscoll, Tim R; Duan, Leilei; Durrani, Adnan M; Ebel, Beth E; Ellenbogen, Richard G; Elshrek, Yousef M; Endres, Matthias; Ermakov, Sergey P; Erskine, Holly E; Eshrati, Babak; Esteghamati, Alireza; Fahimi, Saman; Faraon, Emerito Jose A; Farzadfar, Farshad; Fay, Derek F J; Feigin, Valery L; Feigl, Andrea B; Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad; Ferrari, Alize J; Ferri, Cleusa P; Flaxman, Abraham D; Fleming, Thomas D; Foigt, Nataliya; Foreman, Kyle J; Paleo, Urbano Fra; Franklin, Richard C; Gabbe, Belinda; Gaffikin, Lynne; Gakidou, Emmanuela; Gamkrelidze, Amiran; Gankpé, Fortuné G; Gansevoort, Ron T; García-Guerra, Francisco A; Gasana, Evariste; Geleijnse, Johanna M; Gessner, Bradford D; Gething, Pete; Gibney, Katherine B; Gillum, Richard F; Ginawi, Ibrahim A M; Giroud, Maurice; Giussani, Giorgia; Goenka, Shifalika; Goginashvili, Ketevan; Gomez Dantes, Hector; Gona, Philimon; Gonzalez de Cosio, Teresita; González-Castell, Dinorah; Gotay, Carolyn C; Goto, Atsushi; Gouda, Hebe N; Guerrant, Richard L; Gugnani, Harish C; Guillemin, Francis; Gunnell, David; Gupta, Rahul; Gupta, Rajeev; Gutiérrez, Reyna A; Hafezi-Nejad, Nima; Hagan, Holly; Hagstromer, Maria; Halasa, Yara A; Hamadeh, Randah R; Hammami, Mouhanad; Hankey, Graeme J; Hao, Yuantao; Harb, Hilda L; Haregu, Tilahun Nigatu; Haro, Josep Maria; Havmoeller, Rasmus; Hay, Simon I; Hedayati, Mohammad T; Heredia-Pi, Ileana B; Hernandez, Lucia; Heuton, Kyle R; Heydarpour, Pouria; Hijar, Martha; Hoek, Hans W; Hoffman, Howard J; Hornberger, John C; Hosgood, H Dean; Hoy, Damian G; Hsairi, Mohamed; Hu, Guoqing; Hu, Howard; Huang, Cheng; Huang, John J; Hubbell, Bryan J; Huiart, Laetitia; Husseini, Abdullatif; Iannarone, Marissa L; Iburg, Kim M; Idrisov, Bulat T; Ikeda, Nayu; Innos, Kaire; Inoue, Manami; Islami, Farhad; Ismayilova, Samaya; Jacobsen, Kathryn H; Jansen, Henrica A; Jarvis, Deborah L; Jassal, Simerjot K; Jauregui, Alejandra; Jayaraman, Sudha; Jeemon, Panniyammakal; Jensen, Paul N; Jha, Vivekanand; Jiang, Fan; Jiang, Guohong; Jiang, Ying; Jonas, Jost B; Juel, Knud; Kan, Haidong; Kany Roseline, Sidibe S; Karam, Nadim E; Karch, André; Karema, Corine K; Karthikeyan, Ganesan; Kaul, Anil; Kawakami, Norito; Kazi, Dhruv S; Kemp, Andrew H; Kengne, Andre P; Keren, Andre; Khader, Yousef S; Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan; Khan, Ejaz A; Khang, Young-Ho; Khatibzadeh, Shahab; Khonelidze, Irma; Kieling, Christian; Kim, Daniel; Kim, Sungroul; Kim, Yunjin; Kimokoti, Ruth W; Kinfu, Yohannes; Kinge, Jonas M; Kissela, Brett M; Kivipelto, Miia; Knibbs, Luke D; Knudsen, Ann Kristin; Kokubo, Yoshihiro; Kose, M Rifat; Kosen, Soewarta; Kraemer, Alexander; Kravchenko, Michael; Krishnaswami, Sanjay; Kromhout, Hans; Ku, Tiffany; Kuate Defo, Barthelemy; Kucuk Bicer, Burcu; Kuipers, Ernst J; Kulkarni, Chanda; Kulkarni, Veena S; Kumar, G Anil; Kwan, Gene F; Lai, Taavi; Lakshmana Balaji, Arjun; Lalloo, Ratilal; Lallukka, Tea; Lam, Hilton; Lan, Qing; Lansingh, Van C; Larson, Heidi J; Larsson, Anders; Laryea, Dennis O; Lavados, Pablo M; Lawrynowicz, Alicia E; Leasher, Janet L; Lee, Jong-Tae; Leigh, James; Leung, Ricky; Levi, Miriam; Li, Yichong; Li, Yongmei; Liang, Juan; Liang, Xiaofeng; Lim, Stephen S; Lindsay, M Patrice; Lipshultz, Steven E; Liu, Shiwei; Liu, Yang; Lloyd, Belinda K; Logroscino, Giancarlo; London, Stephanie J; Lopez, Nancy; Lortet-Tieulent, Joannie; Lotufo, Paulo A; Lozano, Rafael; Lunevicius, Raimundas; Ma, Jixiang; Ma, Stefan; Machado, Vasco M P; MacIntyre, Michael F; Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos; Mahdi, Abbas A; Majdan, Marek; Malekzadeh, Reza; Mangalam, Srikanth; Mapoma, Christopher C; Marape, Marape; Marcenes, Wagner; Margolis, David J; Margono, Christopher; Marks, Guy B; Martin, Randall V; Marzan, Melvin B; Mashal, Mohammad T; Masiye, Felix; Mason-Jones, Amanda J; Matsushita, Kunihiro; Matzopoulos, Richard; Mayosi, Bongani M; Mazorodze, Tasara T; McKay, Abigail C; McKee, Martin; McLain, Abigail; Meaney, Peter A; Medina, Catalina; Mehndiratta, Man Mohan; Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola; Mekonnen, Wubegzier; Melaku, Yohannes A; Meltzer, Michele; Memish, Ziad A; Mendoza, Walter; Mensah, George A; Meretoja, Atte; Mhimbira, Francis Apolinary; Micha, Renata; Miller, Ted R; Mills, Edward J; Misganaw, Awoke; Mishra, Santosh; Mohamed Ibrahim, Norlinah; Mohammad, Karzan A; Mokdad, Ali H; Mola, Glen L; Monasta, Lorenzo; Montañez Hernandez, Julio C; Montico, Marcella; Moore, Ami R; Morawska, Lidia; Mori, Rintaro; Moschandreas, Joanna; Moturi, Wilkister N; Mozaffarian, Dariush; Mueller, Ulrich O; Mukaigawara, Mitsuru; Mullany, Erin C; Murthy, Kinnari S; Naghavi, Mohsen; Nahas, Ziad; Naheed, Aliya; Naidoo, Kovin S; Naldi, Luigi; Nand, Devina; Nangia, Vinay; Narayan, K M Venkat; Nash, Denis; Neal, Bruce; Nejjari, Chakib; Neupane, Sudan P; Newton, Charles R; Ngalesoni, Frida N; Ngirabega, Jean de Dieu; Nguyen, Grant; Nguyen, Nhung T; Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J; Nisar, Muhammad I; Nogueira, José R; Nolla, Joan M; Nolte, Sandra; Norheim, Ole F; Norman, Rosana E; Norrving, Bo; Nyakarahuka, Luke; Oh, In-Hwan; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Olusanya, Bolajoko O; Omer, Saad B; Opio, John Nelson; Orozco, Ricardo; Pagcatipunan, Rodolfo S; Pain, Amanda W; Pandian, Jeyaraj D; Panelo, Carlo Irwin A; Papachristou, Christina; Park, Eun-Kee; Parry, Charles D; Paternina Caicedo, Angel J; Patten, Scott B; Paul, Vinod K; Pavlin, Boris I; Pearce, Neil; Pedraza, Lilia S; Pedroza, Andrea; Pejin Stokic, Ljiljana; Pekericli, Ayfer; Pereira, David M; Perez-Padilla, Rogelio; Perez-Ruiz, Fernando; Perico, Norberto; Perry, Samuel A L; Pervaiz, Aslam; Pesudovs, Konrad; Peterson, Carrie B; Petzold, Max; Phillips, Michael R; Phua, Hwee Pin; Plass, Dietrich; Poenaru, Dan; Polanczyk, Guilherme V; Polinder, Suzanne; Pond, Constance D; Pope, C Arden; Pope, Daniel; Popova, Svetlana; Pourmalek, Farshad; Powles, John; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj; Prasad, Noela M; Qato, Dima M; Quezada, Amado D; Quistberg, D Alex A; Racapé, Lionel; Rafay, Anwar; Rahimi, Kazem; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa; Rahman, Sajjad Ur; Raju, Murugesan; Rakovac, Ivo; Rana, Saleem M; Rao, Mayuree; Razavi, Homie; Reddy, K Srinath; Refaat, Amany H; Rehm, Jürgen; Remuzzi, Giuseppe; Ribeiro, Antonio L; Riccio, Patricia M; Richardson, Lee; Riederer, Anne; Robinson, Margaret; Roca, Anna; Rodriguez, Alina; Rojas-Rueda, David; Romieu, Isabelle; Ronfani, Luca; Room, Robin; Roy, Nobhojit; Ruhago, George M; Rushton, Lesley; Sabin, Nsanzimana; Sacco, Ralph L; Saha, Sukanta; Sahathevan, Ramesh; Sahraian, Mohammad Ali; Salomon, Joshua A; Salvo, Deborah; Sampson, Uchechukwu K; Sanabria, Juan R; Sanchez, Luz Maria; Sánchez-Pimienta, Tania G; Sanchez-Riera, Lidia; Sandar, Logan; Santos, Itamar S; Sapkota, Amir; Satpathy, Maheswar; Saunders, James E; Sawhney, Monika; Saylan, Mete I; Scarborough, Peter; Schmidt, Jürgen C; Schneider, Ione J C; Schöttker, Ben; Schwebel, David C; Scott, James G; Seedat, Soraya; Sepanlou, Sadaf G; Serdar, Berrin; Servan-Mori, Edson E; Shaddick, Gavin; Shahraz, Saeid; Levy, Teresa Shamah; Shangguan, Siyi; She, Jun; Sheikhbahaei, Sara; Shibuya, Kenji; Shin, Hwashin H; Shinohara, Yukito; Shiri, Rahman; Shishani, Kawkab; Shiue, Ivy; Sigfusdottir, Inga D; Silberberg, Donald H; Simard, Edgar P; Sindi, Shireen; Singh, Abhishek; Singh, Gitanjali M; Singh, Jasvinder A; Skirbekk, Vegard; Sliwa, Karen; Soljak, Michael; Soneji, Samir; Søreide, Kjetil; Soshnikov, Sergey; Sposato, Luciano A; Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T; Stapelberg, Nicolas J C; Stathopoulou, Vasiliki; Steckling, Nadine; Stein, Dan J; Stein, Murray B; Stephens, Natalie; Stöckl, Heidi; Straif, Kurt; Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos; Sturua, Lela; Sunguya, Bruno F; Swaminathan, Soumya; Swaroop, Mamta; Sykes, Bryan L; Tabb, Karen M; Takahashi, Ken; Talongwa, Roberto T; Tandon, Nikhil; Tanne, David; Tanner, Marcel; Tavakkoli, Mohammad; Te Ao, Braden J; Teixeira, Carolina M; Téllez Rojo, Martha M; Terkawi, Abdullah S; Texcalac-Sangrador, José Luis; Thackway, Sarah V; Thomson, Blake; Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L; Thrift, Amanda G; Thurston, George D; Tillmann, Taavi; Tobollik, Myriam; Tonelli, Marcello; Topouzis, Fotis; Towbin, Jeffrey A; Toyoshima, Hideaki; Traebert, Jefferson; Tran, Bach X; Trasande, Leonardo; Trillini, Matias; Trujillo, Ulises; Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala; Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis; Tuzcu, Emin Murat; Uchendu, Uche S; Ukwaja, Kingsley N; Uzun, Selen B; van de Vijver, Steven; Van Dingenen, Rita; van Gool, Coen H; van Os, Jim; Varakin, Yuri Y; Vasankari, Tommi J; Vasconcelos, Ana Maria N; Vavilala, Monica S; Veerman, Lennert J; Velasquez-Melendez, Gustavo; Venketasubramanian, N; Vijayakumar, Lakshmi; Villalpando, Salvador; Violante, Francesco S; Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich; Vollset, Stein Emil; Wagner, Gregory R; Waller, Stephen G; Wallin, Mitchell T; Wan, Xia; Wang, Haidong; Wang, JianLi; Wang, Linhong; Wang, Wenzhi; Wang, Yanping; Warouw, Tati S; Watts, Charlotte H; Weichenthal, Scott; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Weintraub, Robert G; Werdecker, Andrea; Wessells, K Ryan; Westerman, Ronny; Whiteford, Harvey A; Wilkinson, James D; Williams, Hywel C; Williams, Thomas N; Woldeyohannes, Solomon M; Wolfe, Charles D A; Wong, John Q; Woolf, Anthony D; Wright, Jonathan L; Wurtz, Brittany; Xu, Gelin; Yan, Lijing L; Yang, Gonghuan; Yano, Yuichiro; Ye, Pengpeng; Yenesew, Muluken; Yentür, Gökalp K; Yip, Paul; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Yoon, Seok-Jun; Younis, Mustafa Z; Younoussi, Zourkaleini; Yu, Chuanhua; Zaki, Maysaa E; Zhao, Yong; Zheng, Yingfeng; Zhou, Maigeng; Zhu, Jun; Zhu, Shankuan; Zou, Xiaonong; Zunt, Joseph R; Lopez, Alan D; Vos, Theo; Murray, Christopher J

    2015-12-05

    The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval

  2. Flood risk and adaptation strategies under climate change and urban expansion: A probabilistic analysis using global data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Muis, S.; Güneralp, B.; Jongman, B.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.; Ward, P.J.

    2015-01-01

    An accurate understanding of flood risk and its drivers is crucial for effective risk management. Detailed risk projections, including uncertainties, are however rarely available, particularly in developing countries. This paper presents a method that integrates recent advances in global-scale

  3. Nonconsensual clinical trials: a foreseeable risk of offshoring under global corporatism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spielman, Bethany

    2015-03-01

    This paper explores the connection of offshoring and outsourcing to nonconsensual global pharmaceutical trials in low-income countries. After discussing reasons why the topic of nonconsensual offshored clinical trials may be overlooked in bioethics literature, I suggest that when pharmaceutical corporations offshore clinical trials today, nonconsensual experiments are often foreseeable and not simply the result of aberrant ethical conduct by a few individuals. Offshoring of clinical trials is structured so that experiments can be presented as health care in a unique form of outsourcing from the host country to pharmaceutical corporations. Bioethicists' assessments of the risks and potential benefits of offshore corporate pharmaceutical trials should therefore systematically include not only the hoped for benefits and the risks of the experimental drug but also the risk that subjects will not have consented, as well as the broader international consequences of nonconsensual experimentation.

  4. Creating a spatially-explicit index: a method for assessing the global wildfire-water risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinne, François-Nicolas; Parisien, Marc-André; Flannigan, Mike; Miller, Carol; Bladon, Kevin D.

    2017-04-01

    The wildfire-water risk (WWR) has been defined as the potential for wildfires to adversely affect water resources that are important for downstream ecosystems and human water needs for adequate water quantity and quality, therefore compromising the security of their water supply. While tools and methods are numerous for watershed-scale risk analysis, the development of a toolbox for the large-scale evaluation of the wildfire risk to water security has only started recently. In order to provide managers and policy-makers with an adequate tool, we implemented a method for the spatial analysis of the global WWR based on the Driving forces-Pressures-States-Impacts-Responses (DPSIR) framework. This framework relies on the cause-and-effect relationships existing between the five categories of the DPSIR chain. As this approach heavily relies on data, we gathered an extensive set of spatial indicators relevant to fire-induced hydrological hazards and water consumption patterns by human and natural communities. When appropriate, we applied a hydrological routing function to our indicators in order to simulate downstream accumulation of potentially harmful material. Each indicator was then assigned a DPSIR category. We collapsed the information in each category using a principal component analysis in order to extract the most relevant pixel-based information provided by each spatial indicator. Finally, we compiled our five categories using an additive indexation process to produce a spatially-explicit index of the WWR. A thorough sensitivity analysis has been performed in order to understand the relationship between the final risk values and the spatial pattern of each category used during the indexation. For comparison purposes, we aggregated index scores by global hydrological regions, or hydrobelts, to get a sense of regional DPSIR specificities. This rather simple method does not necessitate the use of complex physical models and provides a scalable and efficient tool

  5. Modelling global distribution, risk and mitigation strategies of floating plastic pollution

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Sebille, Erik; Wilcox, Chris; Sherman, Peter; Hardesty, Britta Denise; Lavender Law, Kara

    2016-04-01

    Microplastic debris floating at the ocean surface can harm marine life. Understanding the severity of this harm requires knowledge of plastic abundance and distributions. Dozens of expeditions measuring microplastics have been carried out since the 1970s, but they have primarily focused on the North Pacific and North Atlantic accumulation zones, with much sparser coverage elsewhere. Here, we use the largest dataset of microplastic measurements assembled to date to assess the confidence we can have in global estimates of microplastic abundance and mass. We use a rigorous statistical framework to standardise a global dataset of plastic marine debris measured using surface-trawling plankton nets and couple this with three different ocean circulation models to spatially interpolate the observations. Our estimates show that the accumulated number of microplastic particles in 2014 ranges from 15 to 51 trillion particles, weighing between 93 and 236 thousand metric tons. A large fraction of the uncertainty in these estimates comes from sparse sampling in coastal and Southern Hemisphere regions. We then use this global distribution of small floating plastic debris to map out where in the ocean the risk to marine life (in particular seabirds and plankton growth) is greatest, using a quantitative risk framework. We show that the largest risk occurs not necessarily in regions of high plastic concentration, but rather in regions of extensive foraging with medium-high plastic concentrations such as coastal upwelling regions and the Southern Ocean. Finally, we use the estimates of distribution to investigate where in the ocean plastic can most optimally be removed, assuming hypothetical clean-up booms following the ideas from The Ocean Cleanup project. We show that mitigation of the plastic problem can most aptly be done near coastlines, particularly in Asia, rather than in the centres of the gyres. Based on these results, we propose more focus on the coastal zones when

  6. The global geographical overlap of aflatoxin and hepatitis C: Controlling risk factors for liver cancer worldwide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palliyaguru, Dushani L.; Wu, Felicia

    2012-01-01

    About 85% of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC, liver cancer) cases occur in low-income countries, where the risk factors of dietary aflatoxin exposure and chronic hepatitis B and C (HBV and HCV) viral infection are common. While studies have shown synergism between aflatoxin and HBV in causing HCC, much less is known about whether aflatoxin and HCV synergize similarly. From an exposure perspective, we examine whether there is a geographical overlap in populations worldwide exposed to high dietary aflatoxin levels and with high HCV prevalence. While HCV is one of the most important risk factors for HCC in high-income nations (where aflatoxin exposure is low), we find that HCV prevalence is much higher in Africa and Asia, where aflatoxin exposure is also high. However, within a given world region, there are some inconsistencies regarding exposure and cancer risk. Therefore, there is a need to control risk factors such as aflatoxin and hepatitis viruses in a cost-effective manner to prevent global HCC, while continuing to evaluate biological mechanisms by which these risk factors interact to increase HCC risk. PMID:23281740

  7. Of Malthus and Methuselah: does longevity treatment aggravate global catastrophic risks?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jebari, Karim

    2014-12-01

    Global catastrophic risk is a term that refers to the risk of the occurrence of an event that kills at least millions of people across several continents. While it has been argued by a number of scholars that one major potential risk comes from technology, the obscure nature of future technologies makes it difficult to utilize traditional probabilistic risk for the meaningful study of these risks. This article describes an alternative approach and applies it to a research program that has attracted a considerable amount of resources recently: namely longevity research. The aim of this research is to delay or reverse the ageing process. This article argues that this research program is much more risky or less beneficial than its proponents argue. In particular, they tend to underestimate the concerns associated with the potentially drastic population growth that longevity treatment could cause. The ethical benefit often ascribed to longevity treatment is that such treatment would add more subjective life-years that are worth living. However, in light of contemporary environmental problems, such an increase of the human population might be reckless. Drastically reducing fertility to reduce risks associated with environmental stress would make the benefits of such technology much less compelling.

  8. Of Malthus and Methuselah: does longevity treatment aggravate global catastrophic risks?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jebari, Karim

    2014-01-01

    Global catastrophic risk is a term that refers to the risk of the occurrence of an event that kills at least millions of people across several continents. While it has been argued by a number of scholars that one major potential risk comes from technology, the obscure nature of future technologies makes it difficult to utilize traditional probabilistic risk for the meaningful study of these risks. This article describes an alternative approach and applies it to a research program that has attracted a considerable amount of resources recently: namely longevity research. The aim of this research is to delay or reverse the ageing process. This article argues that this research program is much more risky or less beneficial than its proponents argue. In particular, they tend to underestimate the concerns associated with the potentially drastic population growth that longevity treatment could cause. The ethical benefit often ascribed to longevity treatment is that such treatment would add more subjective life-years that are worth living. However, in light of contemporary environmental problems, such an increase of the human population might be reckless. Drastically reducing fertility to reduce risks associated with environmental stress would make the benefits of such technology much less compelling. (invited comment)

  9. A World at Risk: Aggregating Development Trends to Forecast Global Habitat Conversion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oakleaf, James R.; Kennedy, Christina M.; Baruch-Mordo, Sharon; West, Paul C.; Gerber, James S.; Jarvis, Larissa; Kiesecker, Joseph

    2015-01-01

    A growing and more affluent human population is expected to increase the demand for resources and to accelerate habitat modification, but by how much and where remains unknown. Here we project and aggregate global spatial patterns of expected urban and agricultural expansion, conventional and unconventional oil and gas, coal, solar, wind, biofuels and mining development. Cumulatively, these threats place at risk 20% of the remaining global natural lands (19.68 million km2) and could result in half of the world’s biomes becoming >50% converted while doubling and tripling the extent of land converted in South America and Africa, respectively. Regionally, substantial shifts in land conversion could occur in Southern and Western South America, Central and Eastern Africa, and the Central Rocky Mountains of North America. With only 5% of the Earth’s at-risk natural lands under strict legal protection, estimating and proactively mitigating multi-sector development risk is critical for curtailing the further substantial loss of nature. PMID:26445282

  10. The double burden of neoliberalism? Noncommunicable disease policies and the global political economy of risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glasgow, Sara; Schrecker, Ted

    2016-05-01

    The growing prevalence of NCDs in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is now recognized as one of the major global health policy issues of the early 21st century. Current official approaches reflect ambivalence about how health policy should approach the social determinants of health identified by the WHO Commission on the topic that released its report in 2008, and in particular the role of macro-scale economic and social processes. Authoritative framing of options for NCD prevention in advance of the September, 2011 UN high-level meeting on NCDs arguably relied on a selective reading of the scientific (including social scientific) evidence, and foregrounded a limited number of risk factors defined in terms of individual behavior: tobacco use, unhealthy diet, alcohol (ab)use and physical inactivity. The effect was to reproduce at a transnational level the individualization of responsibility for health that characterizes most health promotion initiatives in high-income countries, ignoring both the limited control that many people have over their exposure to these risk factors and the contribution of macro-scale processes like trade liberalization and the marketing activities of transnational corporations to the global burden of NCDs. An alternative perspective focuses on "the inequitable distribution of power, money, and resources" described by the WHO Commission, and the ways in which policies that address those inequities can avoid unintentional incorporation of neoliberal constructions of risk and responsibility. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  11. The Risk Management Functions in the Conditions of Globalization: Case Study of the Republic of Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zlatija Jelenković

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Globalization, which represents an important transmission mechanism of the crisis, has led to the necessity for controlling various risks of business, setting a new line of management in companies, regardless of the main business activity they are engaged in. The economic crisis in general, and especially the global financial crises (2007 and the present one led to bankruptcy, and thus to loss of funds of many businesses and individuals. Therefore, it was necessary, on the one hand, to ensure confidence in the financial system and to maintain its stability. On the other hand, the development of corporate governance and separation of functions of ownership and management insisted on the creation of functions that directly report to the owners of capital, such as risk management and internal audit. The value of this paper is in emphasizing the new management function and raising awareness of the scientific public and businesses about the need for introduction of risk management functions in order to facilitate effective management of enterprises, although the survey (2012-2015 has shown that the existence of legal obligations, in this regard penal policy, is the only thing that effectively establishes and promotes this area.

  12. A World at Risk: Aggregating Development Trends to Forecast Global Habitat Conversion.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James R Oakleaf

    Full Text Available A growing and more affluent human population is expected to increase the demand for resources and to accelerate habitat modification, but by how much and where remains unknown. Here we project and aggregate global spatial patterns of expected urban and agricultural expansion, conventional and unconventional oil and gas, coal, solar, wind, biofuels and mining development. Cumulatively, these threats place at risk 20% of the remaining global natural lands (19.68 million km2 and could result in half of the world's biomes becoming >50% converted while doubling and tripling the extent of land converted in South America and Africa, respectively. Regionally, substantial shifts in land conversion could occur in Southern and Western South America, Central and Eastern Africa, and the Central Rocky Mountains of North America. With only 5% of the Earth's at-risk natural lands under strict legal protection, estimating and proactively mitigating multi-sector development risk is critical for curtailing the further substantial loss of nature.

  13. Assessment of Costs for a Global Climate Fund Against Public Sector Disaster Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan; Mechler, Reinhard; Pflug, Georg; Williges, Keith

    2013-04-01

    National governments are key actors in managing climate variability and change, yet, many countries, faced with exhausted tax bases, high levels of indebtedness and limited donor assistance, have been unable to raise sufficient and timely capital to replace or repair damaged assets and restore livelihoods following major disasters exacerbating the impacts of disaster shocks on poverty and development. For weather extremes, which form a subset of the adaptation challenge and are supposed to increase in intensity and frequency with a changing climate, we conduct an assessment of the costs of managing and financing today's public sector risks on a global scale for more than 180 countries. A countries financial vulnerability is defined as a function of its financial resilience and its exposure to disaster risk. While disaster risk is estimated in terms of asset loss distributions based on catastrophe modeling approaches, financial resilience is operationalized as the public sector's ability to pay for relief to the affected population and support the reconstruction of affected assets and infrastructure for a given event. We consider governments financially vulnerable to disasters if they cannot access sufficient funding after a disaster to cover their liabilities. We operationalize this concept by the term resource gap, which we define the net loss associated with a disaster event after exhausting all possible ex-post and ex ante financing sources. Extending this approach for all possible disaster events, the risk that a resource gap will occur over a given time-span can be calculated for each country individually and dependent on the risk level different risk instruments may have to be applied. Furthermore, our estimates may inform decisions pertaining to a "climate insurance fund" absorbing "high level" country risks exceeding the ability of any given country to pay in the case of an extreme event. Our estimates relate to today's climate, yet we suggest that

  14. Assessment of global risk: a foundation for a new, better definition of hypertension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giles, Thomas D

    2006-08-01

    The prevalence of individuals with increased blood pressure (BP) is growing. A greater understanding of the various pathogenetic mechanisms of hypertension and associated BP increases would provide a better strategy for preventing and treating this condition. Hypertension is strongly associated with other cardiovascular risk factors. Additionally, there is no threshold of BP >115/70 mm Hg that identifies cardiovascular risk (i.e., risk is linear and doubles for each 20/10-mm Hg BP rise). These insights have led a group of hypertension experts to propose a new definition of hypertension as "a progressive cardiovascular syndrome arising from complex and interrelated etiologies," which features early markers that are "often present before blood pressure elevation is sustained." Early cardiovascular markers include widened pulse pressure, left ventricular hypertrophy, increased arterial stiffness, endothelial dysfunction, and microalbuminuria. Importantly, antihypertensive treatment for patients with prehypertension (systolic BP of 120-139 mm Hg or diastolic BP of 80-89 mm Hg) has recently been shown to prevent the development of frank hypertension. This revision of the definition of hypertension and the need to assess BP levels in the context of global cardiovascular risk should lead to earlier detection of at-risk patients.

  15. Mapping Global Potential Risk of Mango Sudden Decline Disease Caused by Ceratocystis fimbriata

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliveira, Leonardo S. S.; Alfenas, Acelino C.; Neven, Lisa G.; Al-Sadi, Abdullah M.

    2016-01-01

    The Mango Sudden Decline (MSD), also referred to as Mango Wilt, is an important disease of mango in Brazil, Oman and Pakistan. This fungus is mainly disseminated by the mango bark beetle, Hypocryphalus mangiferae (Stebbing), by infected plant material, and the infested soils where it is able to survive for long periods. The best way to avoid losses due to MSD is to prevent its establishment in mango production areas. Our objectives in this study were to: (1) predict the global potential distribution of MSD, (2) identify the mango growing areas that are under potential risk of MSD establishment, and (3) identify climatic factors associated with MSD distribution. Occurrence records were collected from Brazil, Oman and Pakistan where the disease is currently known to occur in mango. We used the correlative maximum entropy based model (MaxEnt) algorithm to assess the global potential distribution of MSD. The MaxEnt model predicted suitable areas in countries where the disease does not already occur in mango, but where mango is grown. Among these areas are the largest mango producers in the world including India, China, Thailand, Indonesia, and Mexico. The mean annual temperature, precipitation of coldest quarter, precipitation seasonality, and precipitation of driest month variables contributed most to the potential distribution of MSD disease. The mango bark beetle vector is known to occur beyond the locations where MSD currently exists and where the model predicted suitable areas, thus showing a high likelihood for disease establishment in areas predicted by our model. Our study is the first to map the potential risk of MSD establishment on a global scale. This information can be used in designing strategies to prevent introduction and establishment of MSD disease, and in preparation of efficient pest risk assessments and monitoring programs. PMID:27415625

  16. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-09-16

    The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of risk factor exposure and attributable burden of disease. By providing estimates over a long time series, this study can monitor risk exposure trends critical to health surveillance and inform policy debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2016. This study included 481 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk (RR) and exposure estimates from 22 717 randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources, according to the GBD 2016 source counting methods. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. Finally, we explored four drivers of trends in attributable burden: population growth, population ageing, trends in risk exposure, and all other factors combined. Since 1990, exposure increased significantly for 30 risks, did not change significantly for four risks, and decreased significantly for 31 risks. Among risks that are leading causes of burden of disease, child growth failure and household air pollution showed the most significant declines, while metabolic risks, such as body-mass index and high fasting plasma glucose, showed significant increases. In 2016, at Level 3 of the hierarchy, the three leading risk factors in terms of attributable DALYs at the global level for men were smoking (124·1 million

  17. Ecological risk Evaluation and Green Infrastructure planning for coping with global climate change, a case study of Shanghai, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Pengyao; Xiao, He; Li, Xiang; Hu, Wenhao; Gu, Shoubai; Yu, Zhenrong

    2018-01-01

    Coping with various ecological risks caused by extreme weather events of global climate change has become an important issue in regional planning, and storm water management for sustainable development. In this paper, taking Shanghai, China as a case study, four potential ecological risks were identified including flood disaster, sea-source disaster, urban heat island effect, and land subsidence. Based on spatial database, the spatial variation of these four ecological risks was evaluated, and the planning area was divided into seven responding regions with different green infrastructure strategy. The methodology developed in this study combining ecological risk evaluation with spatial regionalization planning could contribute to coping with global climate change.

  18. Bank Funding Structures and Risk; Evidence From the Global Financial Crisis

    OpenAIRE

    Pablo Federico; Francisco F. Vazquez

    2012-01-01

    This paper analyzes the evolution of bank funding structures in the run up to the global financial crisis and studies the implications for financial stability, exploiting a bank-level dataset that covers about 11,000 banks in the U.S. and Europe during 2001?09. The results show that banks with weaker structural liquidity and higher leverage in the pre-crisis period were more likely to fail afterward. The likelihood of bank failure also increases with bank risk-taking. In the cross-section, th...

  19. An evolutionary game model for behavioral gambit of loyalists: Global awareness and risk-aversion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfinito, E.; Barra, A.; Beccaria, M.; Fachechi, A.; Macorini, G.

    2018-02-01

    We study the phase diagram of a minority game where three classes of agents are present. Two types of agents play a risk-loving game that we model by the standard Snowdrift Game. The behaviour of the third type of agents is coded by indifference with respect to the game at all: their dynamics is designed to account for risk-aversion as an innovative behavioral gambit. From this point of view, the choice of this solitary strategy is enhanced when innovation starts, while is depressed when it becomes the majority option. This implies that the payoff matrix of the game becomes dependent on the global awareness of the agents measured by the relevance of the population of the indifferent players. The resulting dynamics is nontrivial with different kinds of phase transition depending on a few model parameters. The phase diagram is studied on regular as well as complex networks.

  20. Globalization of pediatric transplantation: The risk of tuberculosis or not tuberculosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCulloch, Mignon; Lin, Philana Ling

    2017-05-01

    The risk of TB among pediatric SOT recipients increases as the globalization of medical care continues to broaden. Unlike adults, children and especially infants are more susceptible to TB as a complication after transplantation. Little data exist regarding the true incidence of TB and the optimal risk-based management of this very vulnerable population. Here, we highlight the theoretical and practical issues that complicate the management of these patients and pose some questions that should be addressed when managing these patients. More data are needed to provide optimal guidance of the best diagnostic and management practices to this unique population. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. Abundance in Capital: Global Risk Sharing and Insurance in a Changing Financial Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michel, Gero; Schaper, Christopher

    2014-05-01

    Insurance has played a viable role in the hedging of homeowners and commercial risks around the world. Countries that have significant penetration in insurance have in addition performed better after large regional or over-regional catastrophic losses. Insurance has hence increased the resilience of western societies. This is opposed to emerging or developing markets with low insurance penetration which have suffered significant drawbacks in their development after large catastrophic events. Examples include the recent Typhoon(s) in the Philippines and the 2010 Haiti earthquake. This presentation will provide insights into the opportunities, views and risk management features a global reinsurance company must assume in order to hedge and mitigate risk across the world. During the past year, an unprecedented amount of new capital has been entering the insurance market, looking for profitable investments outside the much wider capital market. Catastrophe insurance is seen as a valuable alternative to investing in assets that that have shown low returns and high correlation in the recent financial meltdown. The new capital is mostly deployed - or competing with already deployed capital - in the US where insurance penetration is already high. This is opposed to more than half of the world including all developing and most emerging countries which have low insurance penetration and often lack infrastructure hindering new capital to be deployed effectively. What is needed to overcome this obvious deficiency in capital supply and demand? One reason why it is difficult to deploy capital in developing countries is the lack of available exposure information and catastrophe models. This presentation sheds light on the potential science needs of our market and gives an overview of what is being done at Montpelier, a global reinsurance company, to understand catastrophe risk around the globe.

  2. Meeting the Challenge of Earthquake Risk Globalisation: Towards the Global Earthquake Model GEM (Sergey Soloviev Medal Lecture)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zschau, J.

    2009-04-01

    Earthquake risk, like natural risks in general, has become a highly dynamic and globally interdependent phenomenon. Due to the "urban explosion" in the Third World, an increasingly complex cross linking of critical infrastructure and lifelines in the industrial nations and a growing globalisation of the world's economies, we are presently facing a dramatic increase of our society's vulnerability to earthquakes in practically all seismic regions on our globe. Such fast and global changes cannot be captured with conventional earthquake risk models anymore. The sciences in this field are, therefore, asked to come up with new solutions that are no longer exclusively aiming at the best possible quantification of the present risks but also keep an eye on their changes with time and allow to project these into the future. This does not apply to the vulnerablity component of earthquake risk alone, but also to its hazard component which has been realized to be time-dependent, too. The challenges of earthquake risk dynamics and -globalisation have recently been accepted by the Global Science Forum of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD - GSF) who initiated the "Global Earthquake Model (GEM)", a public-private partnership for establishing an independent standard to calculate, monitor and communicate earthquake risk globally, raise awareness and promote mitigation.

  3. Towards a Global Water Scarcity Risk Assessment Framework: Incorporation of Probability Distributions and Hydro-Climatic Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

    2016-01-01

    Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions increasingly put pressure on fresh water resources and are expected to aggravate water scarcity conditions towards the future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based water scarcity assessments, a global-scale framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist. This study provides a first step towards such a risk based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change and population growth scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk, expressed in terms of expected annual exposed population, increases given all future scenarios, up to greater than 56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels.

  4. Global DNA hypomethylation in peripheral blood leukocytes as a biomarker for cancer risk: a meta-analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hae Dong Woo

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Good biomarkers for early detection of cancer lead to better prognosis. However, harvesting tumor tissue is invasive and cannot be routinely performed. Global DNA methylation of peripheral blood leukocyte DNA was evaluated as a biomarker for cancer risk. METHODS: We performed a meta-analysis to estimate overall cancer risk according to global DNA hypomethylation levels among studies with various cancer types and analytical methods used to measure DNA methylation. Studies were systemically searched via PubMed with no language limitation up to July 2011. Summary estimates were calculated using a fixed effects model. RESULTS: The subgroup analyses by experimental methods to determine DNA methylation level were performed due to heterogeneity within the selected studies (p<0.001, I(2: 80%. Heterogeneity was not found in the subgroup of %5-mC (p = 0.393, I(2: 0% and LINE-1 used same target sequence (p = 0.097, I(2: 49%, whereas considerable variance remained in LINE-1 (p<0.001, I(2: 80% and bladder cancer studies (p = 0.016, I(2: 76%. These results suggest that experimental methods used to quantify global DNA methylation levels are important factors in the association study between hypomethylation levels and cancer risk. Overall, cancer risks of the group with the lowest DNA methylation levels were significantly higher compared to the group with the highest methylation levels [OR (95% CI: 1.48 (1.28-1.70]. CONCLUSIONS: Global DNA hypomethylation in peripheral blood leukocytes may be a suitable biomarker for cancer risk. However, the association between global DNA methylation and cancer risk may be different based on experimental methods, and region of DNA targeted for measuring global hypomethylation levels as well as the cancer type. Therefore, it is important to select a precise and accurate surrogate marker for global DNA methylation levels in the association studies between global DNA methylation levels in peripheral

  5. The socio-technical setting of economic stakes of global environment risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salles, J.M.

    1993-01-01

    For policy-making for fighting acid rain, protecting the ozone layer and initiating action to prevent global climate change related to the growth of the greenhouse effect, the economic approach requires more precise consideration of how the economic stakes attached to these threats have been built up by their social actors. Global environmental risks (GER) are not directly perceivable nor can they be easily related to any activity or phenomena at local level (in time or space). There are scientific controversies about the reality of damage and establishing credible responsibility links. Moreover, these controversies are brought to media and social debate before any scientific clarification is possible. The media representations of GER emphasize the fact they could have catastrophic and irreversible consequences. So, the social demand for public action becomes very heavy when delay, possibly of several years between the causes and consequences of global environmental change, prevents any rapid clarification in the controversies. These difficulties have led to the evolution of a decision process in several steps: firstly, an international convention is prepared in which signatory countries commit themselves to cooperate and to take action; secondly, one or several agreements are signed with clear technical objectives and a timetable for implementations. 23 refs

  6. Developing global climate anomalies suggest potential disease risks for 2006-2007.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anyamba, Assaf; Chretien, Jean-Paul; Small, Jennifer; Tucker, Compton J; Linthicum, Kenneth J

    2006-12-28

    El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related climate anomalies have been shown to have an impact on infectious disease outbreaks. The Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA/CPC) has recently issued an unscheduled El Niño advisory, indicating that warmer than normal sea surface temperatures across the equatorial eastern Pacific may have pronounced impacts on global tropical precipitation patterns extending into the northern hemisphere particularly over North America. Building evidence of the links between ENSO driven climate anomalies and infectious diseases, particularly those transmitted by insects, can allow us to provide improved long range forecasts of an epidemic or epizootic. We describe developing climate anomalies that suggest potential disease risks using satellite generated data. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial east Pacific ocean have anomalously increased significantly during July - October 2006 indicating the typical development of El Niño conditions. The persistence of these conditions will lead to extremes in global-scale climate anomalies as has been observed during similar conditions in the past. Positive Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) anomalies, indicative of severe drought conditions, have been observed across all of Indonesia, Malaysia and most of the Philippines, which are usually the first areas to experience ENSO-related impacts. This dryness can be expected to continue, on average, for the remainder of 2006 continuing into the early part of 2007. During the period November 2006 - January 2007 climate forecasts indicate that there is a high probability for above normal rainfall in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Islands, the Korean Peninsula, the U.S. Gulf Coast and Florida, northern South America and equatorial east Africa. Taking into consideration current observations and climate forecast information, indications are that the following regions are at increased

  7. Developing global climate anomalies suggest potential disease risks for 2006 – 2007

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tucker Compton J

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO related climate anomalies have been shown to have an impact on infectious disease outbreaks. The Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA/CPC has recently issued an unscheduled El Niño advisory, indicating that warmer than normal sea surface temperatures across the equatorial eastern Pacific may have pronounced impacts on global tropical precipitation patterns extending into the northern hemisphere particularly over North America. Building evidence of the links between ENSO driven climate anomalies and infectious diseases, particularly those transmitted by insects, can allow us to provide improved long range forecasts of an epidemic or epizootic. We describe developing climate anomalies that suggest potential disease risks using satellite generated data. Results Sea surface temperatures (SSTs in the equatorial east Pacific ocean have anomalously increased significantly during July – October 2006 indicating the typical development of El Niño conditions. The persistence of these conditions will lead to extremes in global-scale climate anomalies as has been observed during similar conditions in the past. Positive Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR anomalies, indicative of severe drought conditions, have been observed across all of Indonesia, Malaysia and most of the Philippines, which are usually the first areas to experience ENSO-related impacts. This dryness can be expected to continue, on average, for the remainder of 2006 continuing into the early part of 2007. During the period November 2006 – January 2007 climate forecasts indicate that there is a high probability for above normal rainfall in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Islands, the Korean Peninsula, the U.S. Gulf Coast and Florida, northern South America and equatorial east Africa. Taking into consideration current observations and climate forecast information, indications

  8. IMPACT OF THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS ON THE CREDIT RISK MANAGEMENT IN A BANK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jerzy Piotr Gwizdała

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of this article is to present the role of risk in the activity of a commercial bank with particular reference to the global financial crisis. The introductory part presents the origins of economic crises, especially the contemporary crisis from 2007-2010, which began in the United States subprime mortgage market. Dating back to the 1831, considerations allow to undetstand the causes of the crises. Then the impact of the global financial crisis on the scale of the crediting activities of banks in Poland was analyzed, presenting a credit portfolio structure, with a particular focus on the structure of loans to households and enterprises. In the second part of the article the process of credit risk management was discussed, paying attention to the crucial role of the bank's credit policy, and the conditions and prospects of commercial bank credit activity development were specified. It presents also the criteria for the proper credit management, indicating as the optimal solution the development of the so-called „credit textbook”.

  9. Global burden of stroke and risk factors in 188 countries, during 1990-2013

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Feigin, Valery L; Roth, Gregory A; Naghavi, Mohsen

    2016-01-01

    the population-attributable fraction (PAF) of stroke-related disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) associated with potentially modifiable environmental, occupational, behavioural, physiological, and metabolic risk factors in different age and sex groups worldwide and in high-income countries and low......·2-73·5) and environmental factors (air pollution and lead exposure; 33·4%, 95% UI 32·4-34·3) were the second and third largest contributors to DALYs. Globally, 29·2% (95% UI 28·2-29·6) of the burden of stroke was attributed to air pollution. Although globally there were no significant differences between sexes......-income and middle-income countries, from 1990 to 2013. METHODS: We used data on stroke-related DALYs, risk factors, and PAF from the GBD 2013 Study to estimate the burden of stroke by age and sex (with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals [UI]) in 188 countries, as measured with stroke-related DALYs in 1990...

  10. Risk perception and commitment to reduce global climate change in Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodríguez-Priego, Nuria

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available An online national survey among the Spanish population (n = 602 was conducted to examine the factors underlying a person’s support for commitments to global climate change reductions. Multiple hierarchical regression analysis was conducted in four steps and a structural equations model was tested. A survey tool designed by the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication was applied in order to build scales for the variables introduced in the study. The results show that perceived consumer effectiveness and risk perception are determinant factors of commitment to mitigating global climate change. However, there are differences in the influence that other factors, such as socio-demographics, view of nature and cultural cognition, have on the last predicted variable.Una encuesta online a la población española (n = 602 examina los factores que predicen el apoyo al compromiso con el medio ambiente por parte de los participantes para reducir el cambio climático global. Se realizó una regresión múltiple jerárquica en cuatro pasos y se testó el modelo de ecuaciones estructurales propuesto. En la encuesta se aplicó una herramienta diseñada por el Yale Project on Climate Change Communication con la finalidad de construir escalas para las variables introducidas en el estudio. Los resultados muestran que la efectividad percibida por el consumidor y el riesgo percibido son factores determinantes del apoyo al compromiso para reducir el cambio climático global. No obstante, se encontraron algunas diferencias en cuanto a la influencia de otros factores tales como las variables socio-demográficas, la visión de la naturaleza y la cognición cultural.

  11. New trends in communicating risk and cultivating resilience: a multi-disciplinary approach to global environmental risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kontar, Y. Y.; Eichelberger, J. C.; Rupp, S. T.; Taylor, K.

    2014-12-01

    The increasing extent and vulnerability of technologically advanced society together with aspects of global climate change intensifies the frequency and severity of natural disasters. Every year, communities around the world face the devastating consequences of hazardous events, including loss of life, property and infrastructure damage, and environmental decline. In this session, we will introduce a new book, entitled New Trends in Communicating Risk and Cultivating Resilience, which is dedicated to those who have directly or indirectly suffered the effects of climate change extreme events with the hope that the advance of knowledge, implementation of sound science and appropriate policies, and use of effective communication will help in reducing their vulnerability while also improving resilience in the face of often devastating natural hazards. This book comprises manuscripts from those whose research, advocacy, work, teaching, or service in the natural or social sciences deals with risk communication and/or management surrounding natural disasters, with a particular focus on climate change-related phenomena. This book is arranged into five sections: The Role of Communication in Fostering Resilient Communities (Reframing the conversation about natural hazards and climate change with a new focus on resilience)Before the Disaster: Prediction, Preparation, and Crisis Communication (The role of communication in predicting and preparing for the unpredictable regarding natural disasters)Mitigating Circumstances: Living Through Change, Uncertainty, and Disaster (Mitigation and the role of communication in minimizing the damage during natural disasters and during an era of climate change)After the Disaster: Response and Recovery Communication (The role of communication after natural disasters)Looking Back and Learning Forward: Best and Worst Practices Exposed (Considering risk and resilience communication of natural disasters with one eye on best practices and one eye

  12. Caffeine and paraxanthine in aquatic systems: Global exposure distributions and probabilistic risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez-Gil, J L; Cáceres, N; Dafouz, R; Valcárcel, Y

    2018-01-15

    This study presents one of the most complete applications of probabilistic methodologies to the risk assessment of emerging contaminants. Perhaps the most data-rich of these compounds, caffeine, as well as its main metabolite (paraxanthine), were selected for this study. Information for a total of 29,132 individual caffeine and 7442 paraxanthine samples was compiled, including samples where the compounds were not detected. The inclusion of non-detect samples (as censored data) in the estimation of environmental exposure distributions (EEDs) allowed for a realistic characterization of the global presence of these compounds in aquatic systems. EEDs were compared to species sensitivity distributions (SSDs), when possible, in order to calculate joint probability curves (JPCs) to describe the risk to aquatic organisms. This way, it was determined that unacceptable environmental risk (defined as 5% of the species being potentially exposed to concentrations able to cause effects in>5% of the cases) could be expected from chronic exposure to caffeine from effluent (28.4% of the cases), surface water (6.7% of the cases) and estuary water (5.4% of the cases). Probability of exceedance of acute predicted no-effect concentrations (PNECs) for paraxanthine were higher than 5% for all assessed matrices except for drinking water and ground water, however no experimental effects data was available for paraxanthine, resulting in a precautionary deterministic hazard assessment for this compound. Given the chemical similarities between both compounds, real effect thresholds, and thus risk, for paraxanthine, would be expected to be close to those observed for caffeine. Negligible Human health risk from exposure to caffeine via drinking or groundwater is expected from the compiled data. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Underreporting of high-risk water and sanitation practices undermines progress on global targets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vedachalam, Sridhar; MacDonald, Luke H; Shiferaw, Solomon; Seme, Assefa; Schwab, Kellogg J

    2017-01-01

    Water and sanitation indicators under the Millennium Development Goals failed to capture high-risk practices undertaken on a regular basis. In conjunction with local partners, fourteen rounds of household surveys using mobile phones with a customized open-source application were conducted across nine study geographies in Asia and Africa. In addition to the main water and sanitation facilities, interviewees (n = 245,054) identified all water and sanitation options regularly used for at least one season of the year. Unimproved water consumption and open defecation were targeted as high-risk practices. We defined underreporting as the difference between the regular and main use of high-risk practices. Our estimates of high-risk practices as the main option matched the widely accepted Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) estimates within the 95% confidence interval. However, estimates of these practices as a regular option was far higher than the DHS estimates. Across the nine geographies, median underreporting of unimproved water use was 5.5%, with a range of 0.5% to 13.9%. Median underreporting of open defecation was much higher at 9.9%, with a range of 2.7% to 11.5%. This resulted in an underreported population of 25 million regularly consuming unimproved water and 50 million regularly practicing open defecation. Further examination of data from Ethiopia suggested that location and socio-economic factors were significant drivers of underreporting. Current global monitoring relies on a framework that considers the availability and use of a single option to meet drinking water and sanitation needs. Our analysis demonstrates the use of multiple options and widespread underreporting of high-risk practices. Policies based on current monitoring data, therefore, fail to consider the range of challenges and solutions to meeting water and sanitation needs, and result in an inflated sense of progress. Mobile surveys offer a cost-effective and innovative platform to rapidly

  14. Living with risk. A global review of disaster reduction initiatives. Preliminary version

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    In recent years the world has witnessed an interminable succession of disasters - floods, storms, earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions and wildfires that have claimed many thousands of lives, caused material losses in the tens of billions of dollars, and inflicted a terrible toll on developing countries in particular, where disasters divert attention and resources needed desperately to escape poverty. Communities will always face natural hazards, but today's disasters are often generated by, or at least exacerbated by, human activities. At the most dramatic level, human activities are changing the natural balance of the earth, interfering as never before with the atmosphere, the oceans, the polar ice caps, the forest cover and the natural pillars that make our world a livable home. But we are also putting ourselves in harm's way in less visible ways. At no time in human history have so many people lived in cities clustered around seismically active areas. Destitution and demographic pressure have led more people than ever before to live in flood plains or in areas prone to landslides. Poor land-use planning; environmental mismanagement; and a lack of regulatory mechanisms both increase the risk and exacerbate the effects of disasters. Living with risk: a global review of disaster reduction is the first comprehensive effort by the United Nations system to take stock of disaster reduction initiatives throughout the world. Coordinated by the secretariat of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR), the report discusses current disaster trends, assesses policies aimed at mitigating the impact of disasters, and offers examples of successful initiatives. It also recommends that risk reduction be integrated into sustainable development at all levels - global, national and local. Most of all, Living with risk shows that we are far from helpless in the face of natural hazards. Early warning and risk reduction measures have been important factors in

  15. Assessing and Responding to the Risks of Global and Societal Changes in the MENA Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lange, Manfred

    2017-04-01

    combined risks posed by the MENA region being considered a climatic and a societal "hot spot", as described above. These risks will have to be effectively communicated to stakeholders and the research community in order to outline, specify and implement research towards efficacious mitigation and adaption strategies aimed to minimize adverse effects of challenges posed by global and societal changes in the MENA region. The paper will describe the current state of advancing such a process and will introduce a first draft of a "Future Earth Research Strategy for the MENA Region", as formulated by the FEMRC and its Regional Advisory Committee.

  16. Risk assessment, eradication, and biological control: global efforts to limit Australian acacia invasions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, John R.U.; Gairifo, Carla; Gibson, Michelle R.; Arianoutsou, Margarita; Bakar, Baki B.; Baret, Stephane; Celesti-Grapow, Laura; DiTomaso, Joseph M.; Dufour-Dror, Jean-Marc; Kueffer, Christoph; Kull, Christian A.; Hoffman, John H.; Impson, Fiona A.C.; Loope, Lloyd L.; Marchante, Elizabete; Harchante, Helia; Moore, Joslin L.; Murphy, Daniel J.; Tassin, Jacques; Witt, Arne; Zenni, Rafael D.; Richardson, David M.

    2011-01-01

    Aim Many Australian Acacia species have been planted around the world, some are highly valued, some are invasive, and some are both highly valued and invasive. We review global efforts to minimize the risk and limit the impact of invasions in this widely used plant group. Location Global. Methods Using information from literature sources, knowledge and experience of the authors, and the responses from a questionnaire sent to experts around the world, we reviewed: (1) a generalized life cycle of Australian acacias and how to control each life stage, (2) different management approaches and (3) what is required to help limit or prevent invasions. Results Relatively few Australian acacias have been introduced in large numbers, but all species with a long and extensive history of planting have become invasive somewhere. Australian acacias, as a group, have a high risk of becoming invasive and causing significant impacts as determined by existing assessment schemes. Moreover, in most situations, long-lived seed banks mean it is very difficult to control established infestations. Control has focused almost exclusively on widespread invaders, and eradication has rarely been attempted. Classical biological control is being used in South Africa with increasing success. Main conclusions A greater emphasis on pro-active rather than reactive management is required given the difficulties managing established invasions of Australian acacias. Adverse effects of proposed new introductions can be minimized by conducting detailed risk assessments in advance, planning for on-going monitoring and management, and ensuring resources are in place for long-term mitigation. Benign alternatives (e.g. sterile hybrids) could be developed to replace existing utilized taxa. Eradication should be set as a management goal more often to reduce the invasion debt. Introducing classical biological control agents that have a successful track-record in South Africa to other regions and identifying new

  17. Comparative quantification of alcohol exposure as risk factor for global burden of disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehm, Jürgen; Klotsche, Jens; Patra, Jayadeep

    2007-01-01

    Alcohol has been identified as one of the most important risk factors in the burden experienced as a result of disease. The objective of the present contribution is to establish a framework to comparatively quantify alcohol exposure as it is relevant for burden of disease. Different key indicators are combined to derive this quantification. First, adult per capita consumption, composed of recorded and unrecorded consumption, yields the best overall estimate of alcohol exposure for a country or region. Second, survey information is used to allocate the per capita consumption into sex and age groups. Third, an index for detrimental patterns of drinking is used to determine the additional impact on injury and cardiovascular burden. The methodology is applied to estimate global alcohol exposure for the year 2002. Finally, assumptions and potential problems of the approach are discussed. Copyright (c) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  18. Getting Risks Right:Thoughts about Increasing the Resilience of the Global Social & Economic System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick Liedtke

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The extraordinary extent of the financial crisis has inspired deep systemic reforms world-wide, rethinking financial stability, the resilience of our economic systems, and the role that national and international institutions play. While most of the ongoing activities are understandably centred on banks and the banking sector – the origin and centre of the crisis – other important elements have been relegated into secondary roles and fundamental democratic processes have been sidelined. Financial issues have crowded out real economic issues as policy-makers and politicians spend more time on the financial than the substantial (i.e. the real economy and the democratic. Two fundamental concerns need to be addressed proactively: 1. A comprehensive approach to deal with both financial and real world risks on this planet, and 2. The global governance system based on democratic principles to follow globalisation of the business (and particularly the financial sector.

  19. From Risks to Shared Value? Corporate Strategies in Building a Global Water Accounting and Disclosure Regime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco A. Daniel

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The current debate on water accounting and accountability among transnational actors such as corporations and NGOs is likely to contribute to the emergence of a global water governance regime. Corporations within the food and beverage sector (F-B are especially vulnerable to water risks; therefore, in this article we analyse motivations and strategies of the major F-B corporations participating in the debate and developing different water accounting, disclosure and risk-assessment tools. Neo-institutionalism and neo-Gramscian regime theory provide the basis for our framework to analyse the discursive, material and organisational corporate water strategies. Findings based on an analysis of the chosen F-B corporations’ sustainability reports and interviews with key informants suggest that the corporations share similar goals and values with regard to the emerging regime. They seek a standardisation that is practical and supportive in improving their water efficiency and communication with stakeholders. This indicates that some harmonisation has taken place over time and new actors have been pursuing the path of the pioneering companies, but the lead corporations are also differentiating their strategies, thus engaging in hegemonic positioning. However, so far the plethora of NGO-driven accountability initiatives and tools has fragmented the field more than 'war of position' amongst the corporations. Furthermore, several companies claim to have proceeded from internal water-risk management to reducing risks throughout their value chains and watersheds. As a result they are 'creating shared value' with stakeholders, and potentially manifesting an emergent paradigm that goes beyond a private regime framework. Nevertheless, in the absence of verification schemes, questions of sustainability and legitimacy of such actions on the ground prevail and remain a topic for further research.

  20. Recalibration of the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events risk score in a multiethnic Asian population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Mark Y; Shah, Bimal R; Gao, Fei; Sim, Ling Ling; Chua, Terrance; Tan, Huay Cheem; Yeo, Tiong Cheng; Ong, Hean Yee; Foo, David; Goh, Ping Ping; Surrun, Soondal K; Pieper, Karen S; Granger, Christopher B; Koh, Tian Hai; Salim, Agus; Tai, E Shyong

    2011-08-01

    Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is a leading cause of mortality in Asia. However, quantitative risk scores to predict mortality after AMI were developed without the participation of Asian countries. We evaluated the performance of the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) in-hospital mortality risk score, directly and after recalibration, in a large Singaporean cohort representing 3 major Asian ethnicities. The GRACE cohort included 11,389 patients, predominantly of European descent, hospitalized for AMI or unstable angina from 2002 to 2003. The Singapore cohort included 10,100 Chinese, 3,005 Malay, and 2,046 Indian patients hospitalized for AMI from 2002 to 2005.Using the original GRACE score, predicted in-hospital mortality was 2.4% (Chinese), 2.0% (Malay), and 1.6% (Indian). However, observed in-hospital mortality was much greater at 9.8% (Chinese), 7.6% (Malay), and 6.4% (Indian). The c statistic for Chinese, Malays, and Indians was 0.86, 0.86, and 0.84, respectively, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic was 250, 56, and 41, respectively. Recalibration of the GRACE score, using the mean-centered constants derived from the Singapore cohort, did not change the c statistic but substantially improved the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic to 90, 24, and 18, respectively. The recalibrated GRACE score predicted in-hospital mortality as follows: 7.7% (Chinese), 6.0% (Malay), and 5.2% (Indian). In this large cohort of 3 major Asian ethnicities, the original GRACE score, derived from populations outside Asia, underestimated in-hospital mortality after AMI. Recalibration improved risk estimation substantially and may help adapt externally developed risk scores for local practice. Copyright © 2011 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Global risks due to illicit trafficking of nuclear and radiological materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barakat, M. F.

    2012-01-01

    The global widespread applications of of the peaceful uses of atomic energy resulted in the production and accumulation of huge amounts of dangerous nuclear wastes and nuclear materials, the greater part of which is left either unattended or insufficiently protected. In the mean time, many terrorist groups appeared in the international arena aiming at fighting against all forms of pressure, discrimination or injustice in the international relations among developed and developing countries particularly in politically unstable regions of the world. Unfortunately, these terrorist groups were inclined to adopt the use of nuclear or radiological rather crude weapons to improve their methods and efforts in imposing situations of maximum horror possible to subjected communities. In the present work a brief study of the dimensions of nuclear terrorism, its forms and means directed to its support , has been carried out. The efforts to combat against nuclear proliferation in Central Asia as a region in which most of the violations of the non proliferation efforts occurred has been treated. In contrast, the prevailing conditions and efforts in the Americas region are discussed being a region in which combined efforts of the united states with other American countries were rather successful in combating nuclear proliferation. Some recommendations have been given concerning the necessary measures to face the global risk of illicit trafficking of nuclear materials all over the world. (author)

  2. Aedes aegypti Global Suitability Maps Using a Water Container Energy Balance Model for Dengue Risk Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinhoff, D.

    2015-12-01

    Dengue infections are estimated to total nearly 400 million per year worldwide, with both the geographic range and the magnitude of infections having increased in the past 50 years. The primary dengue vector mosquito Aedes aegypti is closely associated with humans. It lives exclusively in urban and semi-urban areas, preferentially bites humans, and spends its developmental stages in artificial water containers. Climate regulates the development of Ae. aegypti immature mosquitoes in artificial containers. Potential containers for Ae. aegypti immature development include, but are not limited to, small sundry items (e.g., bottles, cans, plastic containers), buckets, tires, barrels, tanks, and cisterns. Successful development of immature mosquitoes from eggs to larvae, pupae, and eventually adults is largely dependent on the availability of water and the thermal properties of the water in the containers. Recent work has shown that physics-based approaches toward modeling container water properties are promising for resolving the complexities of container water dynamics and the effects on immature mosquito development. An energy balance container model developed by the author, termed the Water Height And Temperature in Container Habitats Energy Model (WHATCH'EM), solves for water temperature and height for user-specified containers with readily available weather data. Here we use WHATCH'EM with NASA Earth Science products used as input to construct global suitability maps based on established water temperature ranges for immature Ae. aegypti mosquitoes. A proxy for dengue risk is provided from habitat suitability, but also population estimates, as Ae. aegypti is closely associated with human activity. NASA gridded Global Population of the World data is used to mask out rural areas with low dengue risk. Suitability maps are illustrated for a variety of containers (size, material, color) and shading scenarios.

  3. Global thermal niche models of two European grasses show high invasion risks in Antarctica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pertierra, Luis R; Aragón, Pedro; Shaw, Justine D; Bergstrom, Dana M; Terauds, Aleks; Olalla-Tárraga, Miguel Ángel

    2017-07-01

    The two non-native grasses that have established long-term populations in Antarctica (Poa pratensis and Poa annua) were studied from a global multidimensional thermal niche perspective to address the biological invasion risk to Antarctica. These two species exhibit contrasting introduction histories and reproductive strategies and represent two referential case studies of biological invasion processes. We used a multistep process with a range of species distribution modelling techniques (ecological niche factor analysis, multidimensional envelopes, distance/entropy algorithms) together with a suite of thermoclimatic variables, to characterize the potential ranges of these species. Their native bioclimatic thermal envelopes in Eurasia, together with the different naturalized populations across continents, were compared next. The potential niche of P. pratensis was wider at the cold extremes; however, P. annua life history attributes enable it to be a more successful colonizer. We observe that particularly cold summers are a key aspect of the unique Antarctic environment. In consequence, ruderals such as P. annua can quickly expand under such harsh conditions, whereas the more stress-tolerant P. pratensis endures and persist through steady growth. Compiled data on human pressure at the Antarctic Peninsula allowed us to provide site-specific biosecurity risk indicators. We conclude that several areas across the region are vulnerable to invasions from these and other similar species. This can only be visualized in species distribution models (SDMs) when accounting for founder populations that reveal nonanalogous conditions. Results reinforce the need for strict management practices to minimize introductions. Furthermore, our novel set of temperature-based bioclimatic GIS layers for ice-free terrestrial Antarctica provide a mechanism for regional and global species distribution models to be built for other potentially invasive species. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. The evolution of the Global Burden of Disease framework for disease, injury and risk factor quantification: developing the evidence base for national, regional and global public health action

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lopez Alan D

    2005-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Reliable, comparable information about the main causes of disease and injury in populations, and how these are changing, is a critical input for debates about priorities in the health sector. Traditional sources of information about the descriptive epidemiology of diseases, injuries and risk factors are generally incomplete, fragmented and of uncertain reliability and comparability. Lack of a standardized measurement framework to permit comparisons across diseases and injuries, as well as risk factors, and failure to systematically evaluate data quality have impeded comparative analyses of the true public health importance of various conditions and risk factors. As a consequence the impact of major conditions and hazards on population health has been poorly appreciated, often leading to a lack of public health investment. Global disease and risk factor quantification improved dramatically in the early 1990s with the completion of the first Global Burden of Disease Study. For the first time, the comparative importance of over 100 diseases and injuries, and ten major risk factors, for global and regional health status could be assessed using a common metric (Disability-Adjusted Life Years which simultaneously accounted for both premature mortality and the prevalence, duration and severity of the non-fatal consequences of disease and injury. As a consequence, mental health conditions and injuries, for which non-fatal outcomes are of particular significance, were identified as being among the leading causes of disease/injury burden worldwide, with clear implications for policy, particularly prevention. A major achievement of the Study was the complete global descriptive epidemiology, including incidence, prevalence and mortality, by age, sex and Region, of over 100 diseases and injuries. National applications, further methodological research and an increase in data availability have led to improved national, regional and global estimates

  5. Global risk mapping for major diseases transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leta, Samson; Beyene, Tariku Jibat; De Clercq, Eva M; Amenu, Kebede; Kraemer, Moritz U G; Revie, Crawford W

    2018-02-01

    The objective of this study was to map the global risk of the major arboviral diseases transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus by identifying areas where the diseases are reported, either through active transmission or travel-related outbreaks, as well as areas where the diseases are not currently reported but are nonetheless suitable for the vector. Data relating to five arboviral diseases (Zika, dengue fever, chikungunya, yellow fever, and Rift Valley fever (RVF)) were extracted from some of the largest contemporary databases and paired with data on the known distribution of their vectors, A. aegypti and A. albopictus. The disease occurrence data for the selected diseases were compiled from literature dating as far back as 1952 to as recent as 2017. The resulting datasets were aggregated at the country level, except in the case of the USA, where state-level data were used. Spatial analysis was used to process the data and to develop risk maps. Out of the 250 countries/territories considered, 215 (86%) are potentially suitable for the survival and establishment of A. aegypti and/or A. albopictus. A. albopictus has suitability foci in 197 countries/territories, while there are 188 that are suitable for A. aegypti. There is considerable variation in the suitability range among countries/territories, but many of the tropical regions of the world provide high suitability over extensive areas. Globally, 146 (58.4%) countries/territories reported at least one arboviral disease, while 123 (49.2%) reported more than one of the above diseases. The overall numbers of countries/territories reporting autochthonous vector-borne occurrences of Zika, dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever, and RVF, were 85, 111, 106, 43, and 39, respectively. With 215 countries/territories potentially suitable for the most important arboviral disease vectors and more than half of these reporting cases, arboviral diseases are indeed a global public health threat. The increasing proportion of

  6. The Risk-Return Profiles Of Global Portfolios: Some Evidence From Asia-Pacific And European Equity Markets

    OpenAIRE

    H. Christine Hsu

    2011-01-01

    As world financial markets are integrated, national stock markets tend to move together. Empirical evidence on correlations among equity markets worldwide suggests an increasing interdependence between most national markets in recent years. This is disconcerting, to say the least, to investors and portfolio managers seeking risk diversification via global equity investing. The objective of this study is to investigate whether there is still room for global portfolio diversification from the U...

  7. A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lim, S.S.; Vos, T.; Flaxman, A.D.; Danaei, G.; Shibuya, K.; Adair-Rohani, H.; Amann, M.; Anderson, H.R.; Andrews, K.G.; Aryee, M.; Atkinson, C.; Bacchus, L.J.; Bahalim, A.N.; Balakrishnan, K.; Balmes, J.; Barker-Collo, S.; Baxter, A.; Bell, M.L.; Blore, J.D.; Blyth, F.; Bonner, C.; Borges, G.; Bourne, R.; Boussinesq, M.; Brauer, M.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/31149157X; Brooks, P.; Bruce, N.G.; Brunekreef, B.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/067548180; Bryan-Hancock, C.; Bucello, C.; Buchbinder, R.; Bull, F.; Burnett, R.T.; Byers, T.E.; Calabria, B.; Carapetis, J.; Carnahan, E.; Chafe, Z.; Charlson, F.; Chen, H.; Chen, J.S.; Cheng, A.T.; Child, J.C.; Cohen, A.; Colson, K.E.; Cowie, B.C.; Darby, S.; Darling, S.; Davis, A.; Degenhardt, L.; Dentener, F.; Des Jarlais, D.C.; Devries, K.; Dherani, M.; Ding, E.L.; Dorsey, E.R.; Driscoll, T.; Edmond, K.; Ali, S.E.; Engell, R.E.; Erwin, P.J.; Fahimi, S.; Falder, G.; Farzadfar, F.; Ferrari, A.; Finucane, M.M.; Flaxman, S.; Fowkes, F.G.R.; Freedman, G.; Freeman, M.K.; Gakidou, E.; Ghosh, S.; Giovannucci, E.; Gmel, G.; Graham, K.; Grainger, R.; Grant, B.; Gunnell, D.; Gutierrez, H.R.; Hall, W.; Hoek, H.W.; Hogan, A.; Hosgood, H.D.; Hoy, D.; Hu, H.; Hubbell, B.J.; Hutchings, S.J.; Ibeanusi, S.E.; Jacklyn, G.L.; Jasrasaria, R.; Jonas, J.B.; Kan, H.; Kanis, J.A.; Kassebaum, N.; Kawakami, N.; Khang, Y-H.; Khatibzadeh, S.; Khoo, J-P.; de Kok, C.; Laden, F.; Lalloo, R.; Lan, Q.; Lathlean, T.; Leasher, J.L.; Leigh, J.; Li, Y.; Lin, J.K.; Lipshultz, S.E.; London, S.; Lozano, R.; Lu, Y.; Mak, J.; Malekzadeh, R.; Mallinger, L.; Marcenes, W.; March, L.; Marks, R.; Martin, R.; McGale, P.; McGrath, J.; Mehta, S.; Mensah, G.A.; Merriman, T.R.; Micha, R.; Michaud, C.; Mishra, V.; Hanafiah, K.M.; Mokdad, A.A.; Morawska, L.; Mozaffarian, D.; Murphy, T.; Naghavi, M.; Neal, B.; Nelson, P.K.; Nolla, J.M.; Norman, R.; Olives, C.; Omer, S. B; Orchard, J.; Osborne, R.; Ostro, B.; Page, A.; Pandey, K.D.; Parry, C.D.H.; Passmore, E.; Patra, J.; Pearce, N.; Pelizzari, P.M.; Petzold, M.; Phillips, M.R.; Pope, D.; Pope, C.A.; Powles, J.; Rao, M.; Razavi, H.; Rehfuess, E.A.; Rehm, J.T.; Ritz, B.; Rivara, F.P.; Roberts, T.; Robinson, C.; Rodriguez-Portales, J.A.; Romieu, I.; Room, R.; Rosenfeld, L.C.; Roy, A.; Rushton, L.; Salomon, J.A.; Sampson, U.; Sanchez-Riera, L.; Sanman, E.; Sapkota, A.; Seedat, S.; Shi, P.; Shield, K.; Shivakoti, R.; Singh, G.M.; Sleet, D.A.; Smith, E.; Smith, K.R.; Stapelberg, N.J.C.; Steenland, K.; Stöckl, H.; Stovner, L.J.; Straif, K.; Straney, L.; Thurston, G.D.; Tran, J.H.; van Dingenen, R.; van Donkelaar, A.; Veerman, J.L.; Vijayakumar, L.; Weintraub, R.; Weissman, M.M.; White, R.A.; Whiteford, H.; Wiersma, S.T.; Wilkinson, J.D.; Williams, H.C.; Williams, W.; Wilson, N.; Woolf, A.D.; Yip, P.; Zielinski, J.M.; Lopez, A.D.; Murray, C.J.L.; Ezzati, M.

    2012-01-01

    BACKGROUND Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk

  8. Development and Psychometric Assessment of the Measure of Globalization Influence on Health Risk (MGIHR) Among Mexican Women with Breast Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nodora, Jesse N; Carvajal, Scott C; Robles-Garcia, Rebeca; Agraz, Francisco Páez; Daneri-Navarro, Adrian; Meza-Montenegro, Maria Mercedes; Gutierrez-Millan, Luis Enrique; Martinez, Maria Elena

    2015-08-01

    Lacking in the literature are data addressing the extent to which changes in reproductive and lifestyle factors predispose women in developing nations to higher breast cancer rates, and the degree to which these are due to globalization influences. This article describes the development and psychometric assessment of an instrument intended to measure global, predominantly U.S., influences on breast cancer risk profile among women residing in Mexico. Using investigator consensus and a focus group methodology, the Measure of Globalization Influence on Health Risk (MGIHR) was developed and completed by 341 women. Psychometric analysis support the use of an 11-item Consumerism and Modernity scale and 7-item Reproductive Control and Gender Role scale. The MGIHR is a valid and reliable instrument for understanding changing lifestyle and reproductive factors for breast cancer risk and may provide a more complete understanding of breast cancer development and needed interventions.

  9. Climate change and health: global to local influences on disease risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patz, J A; Olson, S H

    2006-01-01

    The World Health Organization has concluded that the climatic changes that have occurred since the mid 1970s could already be causing annually over 150,000 deaths and five million disability-adjusted life-years (DALY), mainly in developing countries. The less developed countries are, ironically, those least responsible for causing global warming. Many health outcomes and diseases are sensitive to climate, including: heat-related mortality or morbidity; air pollution-related illnesses; infectious diseases, particularly those transmitted, indirectly, via water or by insect or rodent vectors; and refugee health issues linked to forced population migration. Yet, changing landscapes can significantly affect local weather more acutely than long-term climate change. Land-cover change can influence micro-climatic conditions, including temperature, evapo-transpiration and surface run-off, that are key determinants in the emergence of many infectious diseases. To improve risk assessment and risk management of these synergistic processes (climate and land-use change), more collaborative efforts in research, training and policy-decision support, across the fields of health, environment, sociology and economics, are required.

  10. Global Potential Distribution of Bactrocera carambolae and the Risks for Fruit Production in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marchioro, Cesar A

    2016-01-01

    The carambola fruit fly, Bactrocera carambolae, is a tephritid native to Asia that has invaded South America through small-scale trade of fruits from Indonesia. The economic losses associated with biological invasions of other fruit flies around the world and the polyphagous behaviour of B. carambolae have prompted much concern among government agencies and farmers with the potential spread of this pest. Here, ecological niche models were employed to identify suitable environments available to B. carambolae in a global scale and assess the extent of the fruit acreage that may be at risk of attack in Brazil. Overall, 30 MaxEnt models built with different combinations of environmental predictors and settings were evaluated for predicting the potential distribution of the carambola fruit fly. The best model was selected based on threshold-independent and threshold-dependent metrics. Climatically suitable areas were identified in tropical and subtropical regions of Central and South America, Sub-Saharan Africa, west and east coast of India and northern Australia. The suitability map of B. carambola was intersected against maps of fruit acreage in Brazil. The acreage under potential risk of attack varied widely among fruit species, which is expected because the production areas are concentrated in different regions of the country. The production of cashew is the one that is at higher risk, with almost 90% of its acreage within the suitable range of B. carambolae, followed by papaya (78%), tangerine (51%), guava (38%), lemon (30%), orange (29%), mango (24%) and avocado (20%). This study provides an important contribution to the knowledge of the ecology of B. carambolae, and the information generated here can be used by government agencies as a decision-making tool to prevent the carambola fruit fly spread across the world.

  11. Global Potential Distribution of Bactrocera carambolae and the Risks for Fruit Production in Brazil.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cesar A Marchioro

    Full Text Available The carambola fruit fly, Bactrocera carambolae, is a tephritid native to Asia that has invaded South America through small-scale trade of fruits from Indonesia. The economic losses associated with biological invasions of other fruit flies around the world and the polyphagous behaviour of B. carambolae have prompted much concern among government agencies and farmers with the potential spread of this pest. Here, ecological niche models were employed to identify suitable environments available to B. carambolae in a global scale and assess the extent of the fruit acreage that may be at risk of attack in Brazil. Overall, 30 MaxEnt models built with different combinations of environmental predictors and settings were evaluated for predicting the potential distribution of the carambola fruit fly. The best model was selected based on threshold-independent and threshold-dependent metrics. Climatically suitable areas were identified in tropical and subtropical regions of Central and South America, Sub-Saharan Africa, west and east coast of India and northern Australia. The suitability map of B. carambola was intersected against maps of fruit acreage in Brazil. The acreage under potential risk of attack varied widely among fruit species, which is expected because the production areas are concentrated in different regions of the country. The production of cashew is the one that is at higher risk, with almost 90% of its acreage within the suitable range of B. carambolae, followed by papaya (78%, tangerine (51%, guava (38%, lemon (30%, orange (29%, mango (24% and avocado (20%. This study provides an important contribution to the knowledge of the ecology of B. carambolae, and the information generated here can be used by government agencies as a decision-making tool to prevent the carambola fruit fly spread across the world.

  12. Global Cardiovascular Risk Assessment by Family Physicians in Suez Canal University-Family Medicine Centers-Egypt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nour-Eldein, Hebatallah; Abdelsalam, Shimaa A; Nasr, Gamila M; Abdelwahed, Hassan A

    2013-01-01

    The close sustained contact of family physician with their patients and local community makes preventive care an integral part of their routine work. Most cardiovascular diseases (CVD) can be prevented by addressing their risk factors. There are several guidelines that recommend different CV risk assessment tools to support CV prevention strategies. This study aimed to assess awareness and attitude of global CV risk assessment and use of their tools by family physicians; aiming to improve CV prevention service. The current study is a cross-sectional descriptive analytic. Sixty-five family physicians were asked to respond to, validated anonymous questionnaire to collect data about characteristics of family physicians, their awareness, attitude, current use, barriers, and recommendations of global CV risk assessment. Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 18 was used for data entry and analysis. Awareness of guidelines of global CV risk assessment was relatively higher regarding the American guidelines (30.8%) than that recommended by World Health Organization (WHO) for Egypt (20.2%). 50.8% of participants had favorable attitude. There was statistical significant relationship between attitude scores and physician characteristics; age (P = 0.003), qualification (P = 0.001) and number of patients seen per week (P = 0.009). Routine use of global CV risk assessment tools was reported only (23%) by family physicians. Relative higher attitude scores than use of global CV risk assessment tools in practice. The most frequent barriers were related to lack of resources and shortage in training/skills and the raised suggestions were towards training.

  13. The loss of species: mangrove extinction risk and geographic areas of global concern.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beth A Polidoro

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Mangrove species are uniquely adapted to tropical and subtropical coasts, and although relatively low in number of species, mangrove forests provide at least US $1.6 billion each year in ecosystem services and support coastal livelihoods worldwide. Globally, mangrove areas are declining rapidly as they are cleared for coastal development and aquaculture and logged for timber and fuel production. Little is known about the effects of mangrove area loss on individual mangrove species and local or regional populations. To address this gap, species-specific information on global distribution, population status, life history traits, and major threats were compiled for each of the 70 known species of mangroves. Each species' probability of extinction was assessed under the Categories and Criteria of the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Eleven of the 70 mangrove species (16% are at elevated threat of extinction. Particular areas of geographical concern include the Atlantic and Pacific coasts of Central America, where as many as 40% of mangroves species present are threatened with extinction. Across the globe, mangrove species found primarily in the high intertidal and upstream estuarine zones, which often have specific freshwater requirements and patchy distributions, are the most threatened because they are often the first cleared for development of aquaculture and agriculture. The loss of mangrove species will have devastating economic and environmental consequences for coastal communities, especially in those areas with low mangrove diversity and high mangrove area or species loss. Several species at high risk of extinction may disappear well before the next decade if existing protective measures are not enforced.

  14. The loss of species: mangrove extinction risk and geographic areas of global concern.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polidoro, Beth A; Carpenter, Kent E; Collins, Lorna; Duke, Norman C; Ellison, Aaron M; Ellison, Joanna C; Farnsworth, Elizabeth J; Fernando, Edwino S; Kathiresan, Kandasamy; Koedam, Nico E; Livingstone, Suzanne R; Miyagi, Toyohiko; Moore, Gregg E; Ngoc Nam, Vien; Ong, Jin Eong; Primavera, Jurgenne H; Salmo, Severino G; Sanciangco, Jonnell C; Sukardjo, Sukristijono; Wang, Yamin; Yong, Jean Wan Hong

    2010-04-08

    Mangrove species are uniquely adapted to tropical and subtropical coasts, and although relatively low in number of species, mangrove forests provide at least US $1.6 billion each year in ecosystem services and support coastal livelihoods worldwide. Globally, mangrove areas are declining rapidly as they are cleared for coastal development and aquaculture and logged for timber and fuel production. Little is known about the effects of mangrove area loss on individual mangrove species and local or regional populations. To address this gap, species-specific information on global distribution, population status, life history traits, and major threats were compiled for each of the 70 known species of mangroves. Each species' probability of extinction was assessed under the Categories and Criteria of the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Eleven of the 70 mangrove species (16%) are at elevated threat of extinction. Particular areas of geographical concern include the Atlantic and Pacific coasts of Central America, where as many as 40% of mangroves species present are threatened with extinction. Across the globe, mangrove species found primarily in the high intertidal and upstream estuarine zones, which often have specific freshwater requirements and patchy distributions, are the most threatened because they are often the first cleared for development of aquaculture and agriculture. The loss of mangrove species will have devastating economic and environmental consequences for coastal communities, especially in those areas with low mangrove diversity and high mangrove area or species loss. Several species at high risk of extinction may disappear well before the next decade if existing protective measures are not enforced.

  15. The CEOS Global Observation Strategy for Disaster Risk Management: An Enterprise Architect's View

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moe, K.; Evans, J. D.; Frye, S.

    2013-12-01

    The Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) Working Group on Information Systems and Services (WGISS), on behalf of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS), is defining an enterprise architecture (known as GA.4.D) for the use of satellite observations in international disaster management. This architecture defines the scope and structure of the disaster management enterprise (based on disaster types and phases); its processes (expressed via use cases / system functions); and its core values (in particular, free and open data sharing via standard interfaces). The architecture also details how a disaster management enterprise describes, obtains, and handles earth observations and data products for decision-support; and how it draws on distributed computational services for streamlined operational capability. We have begun to apply this architecture to a new CEOS initiative, the Global Observation Strategy for Disaster Risk Management (DRM). CEOS is defining this Strategy based on the outcomes of three pilot projects focused on seismic hazards, volcanoes, and floods. These pilots offer a unique opportunity to characterize and assess the impacts (benefits / costs) of the GA.4.D architecture in practice. In particular, the DRM Floods Pilot is applying satellite-based optical and radar data to flood mitigation, warning, and response, including monitoring and modeling at regional to global scales. It is focused on serving user needs and building local institutional / technical capacity in the Caribbean, Southern Africa, and Southeast Asia. In the context of these CEOS DRM Pilots, we are characterizing where and how the GA.4D architecture helps participants to: - Understand the scope and nature of hazard events quickly and accurately - Assure timely delivery of observations into analysis, modeling, and decision-making - Streamline user access to products - Lower barriers to entry for users or suppliers - Streamline or focus field operations in

  16. Geology for Global Development: Mobilising and equipping young geologists to engage in disaster risk reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gill, Joel

    2016-04-01

    Geology for Global Development (GfGD) is a not-for-profit organisation working to mobilise and equip geologists to engage in all aspects of sustainable development, including disaster risk reduction (DRR). Geologists have a crucial role to play in DRR, and the recently agreed Sendai Framework for DRR 2015-2030. This framework aims to significantly reduce loss of lives and livelihoods due to disasters. The geology community have an understanding of the Earth, its physical structure, and the processes by which it is constantly being shaped which are of particular relevance to Priorities for Action 1 and 4 noted within the Sendai Framework. Effective engagement by geologists, however, requires many skills beyond the standard geology curriculum. Cultural understanding, cross-disciplinary communication, diplomacy, community mobilization and participation, knowledge exchange, and an understanding of social science research tools are commonly necessary for effective research and engagement in the science-policy-practice interface. Topical and disciplinary knowledge, such as understanding social vulnerability, international policy frameworks and development theory are also rarely included in the education and professional training of a young geologist. Through the work of GfGD, we are training young geologists with these skills and the supporting knowledge required to make an effective contribution to reducing disaster risk, support civil society, empower communities and help to strengthen resilience. University chapters have been established in 14 major UK and Irish universities, coordinating extra-curricular seminars, workshops and discussion activities. Our work is currently focused on supporting young geologists, but we are increasingly a respected voice at international geoscience forums that gather a wide range of students and professionals. Wider (national and international) activities include conferences, placements and facilitating youth engagement in education

  17. Trait acclimation mitigates mortality risks of tropical canopy trees under global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank eSterck

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available There is a heated debate about the effect of global change on tropical forests. Many scientists predict large-scale tree mortality while others point to mitigating roles of CO2 fertilization and – the notoriously unknown – physiological trait acclimation of trees. In this opinion article we provided a first quantification of the potential of trait acclimation to mitigate the negative effects of warming on tropical canopy tree growth and survival. We applied a physiological tree growth model that incorporates trait acclimation through an optimization approach. Our model estimated the maximum effect of acclimation when trees optimize traits that are strongly plastic on a week to annual time scale (leaf photosynthetic capacity, total leaf area, stem sapwood area to maximize carbon gain. We simulated tree carbon gain for temperatures (25-35ºC and ambient CO2 concentrations (390-800 ppm predicted for the 21st century. Full trait acclimation increased simulated carbon gain by up to 10-20% and the maximum tolerated temperature by up to 2ºC, thus reducing risks of tree death under predicted warming. Functional trait acclimation may thus increase the resilience of tropical trees to warming, but cannot prevent tree death during extremely hot and dry years at current CO2 levels. We call for incorporating trait acclimation in field and experimental studies of plant functional traits, and in models that predict responses of tropical forests to climate change.

  18. Surviving global risks through the preservation of humanity's data on the Moon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turchin, Alexey; Denkenberger, David

    2018-05-01

    Many global catastrophic risks are threatening human civilization, and a number of ideas have been suggested for preventing or surviving them. However, if these interventions fail, society could preserve information about the human race and human DNA samples in the hopes that the next civilization on Earth will be able to reconstruct Homo sapiens and our culture. This requires information preservation of an order of magnitude of 100 million years, a little-explored topic thus far. It is important that a potential future civilization discovers this information as early as possible, thus a beacon should accompany the message in order to increase visibility. The message should ideally contain information about how humanity was destroyed, perhaps including a continuous recording until the end. This could help the potential future civilization to survive. The best place for long-term data storage is under the surface of the Moon, with the beacon constructed as a complex geometric figure drawn by small craters or trenches around a central point. There are several cost-effective options for sending the message as opportunistic payloads on different planned landers.

  19. Assessing the Risk of Establishment of Rhagoletis cerasi (Diptera: Tephritidae) in the United States and Globally.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wakie, Tewodros T; Yee, Wee L; Neven, Lisa G

    2018-05-28

    The European cherry fruit fly, Rhagoletis cerasi (L.) (Diptera: Tephritidae), is a highly destructive pest of cherries (Prunus spp.) (Rosaceae) in Europe and Asia. In 2016, R. cerasi was detected in Ontario, Canada, and in 2017 in New York State, USA, the first records of this pest in North America. The initial detections in Canada caused concern for the major cherry-growing states of Michigan, Washington, Oregon, and California in the United States. Establishment of R. cerasi in the United States could restrict cherry exports to other markets and increase costs needed for fly control, but it is unknown if R. cerasi can establish in U.S. commercial cherry regions. Here, we used the CLIMEX ecological niche model to determine the risk of establishment of R. cerasi in the United States and globally. Within the United States under a no-irrigation scenario, R. cerasi would establish in the East and West Coasts; however, under an irrigation scenario, its distribution would expand to the major cherry-growing regions in the interior of central and eastern Washington and in California. Results also showed that if introduced, R. cerasi would likely establish in eastern China, Japan, the Koreas, Australia, New Zealand, South America, South Africa, Mexico, and Canada. Host plant (Prunus spp. and Lonicera spp. [Caprifoliaceae]) presence, although not included in models, would affect fly establishment. Our results stress the importance of surveying for R. cerasi to prevent its spread and establishment within the United States and other countries.

  20. Down-Side Risk Metrics as Portfolio Diversification Strategies across the Global Financial Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David E. Allen

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper features an analysis of the effectiveness of a range of portfolio diversification strategies, with a focus on down-side risk metrics, as a portfolio diversification strategy in a European market context. We apply these measures to a set of daily arithmetically-compounded returns, in U.S. dollar terms, on a set of ten market indices representing the major European markets for a nine-year period from the beginning of 2005 to the end of 2013. The sample period, which incorporates the periods of both the Global Financial Crisis (GFC and the subsequent European Debt Crisis (EDC, is a challenging one for the application of portfolio investment strategies. The analysis is undertaken via the examination of multiple investment strategies and a variety of hold-out periods and backtests. We commence by using four two-year estimation periods and a subsequent one-year investment hold out period, to analyse a naive 1/N diversification strategy and to contrast its effectiveness with Markowitz mean variance analysis with positive weights. Markowitz optimisation is then compared to various down-side investment optimisation strategies. We begin by comparing Markowitz with CVaR, and then proceed to evaluate the relative effectiveness of Markowitz with various draw-down strategies, utilising a series of backtests. Our results suggest that none of the more sophisticated optimisation strategies appear to dominate naive diversification.

  1. Trait Acclimation Mitigates Mortality Risks of Tropical Canopy Trees under Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sterck, Frank; Anten, Niels P. R.; Schieving, Feike; Zuidema, Pieter A.

    2016-01-01

    There is a heated debate about the effect of global change on tropical forests. Many scientists predict large-scale tree mortality while others point to mitigating roles of CO2 fertilization and – the notoriously unknown – physiological trait acclimation of trees. In this opinion article we provided a first quantification of the potential of trait acclimation to mitigate the negative effects of warming on tropical canopy tree growth and survival. We applied a physiological tree growth model that incorporates trait acclimation through an optimization approach. Our model estimated the maximum effect of acclimation when trees optimize traits that are strongly plastic on a week to annual time scale (leaf photosynthetic capacity, total leaf area, stem sapwood area) to maximize carbon gain. We simulated tree carbon gain for temperatures (25–35°C) and ambient CO2 concentrations (390–800 ppm) predicted for the 21st century. Full trait acclimation increased simulated carbon gain by up to 10–20% and the maximum tolerated temperature by up to 2°C, thus reducing risks of tree death under predicted warming. Functional trait acclimation may thus increase the resilience of tropical trees to warming, but cannot prevent tree death during extremely hot and dry years at current CO2 levels. We call for incorporating trait acclimation in field and experimental studies of plant functional traits, and in models that predict responses of tropical forests to climate change. PMID:27242814

  2. Contemplating Catastrophe: conveying the causes, effects, risks of and responses to global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCaffrey, M.; Berbeco, M.; Lahsen, M.

    2013-12-01

    Humans are changing nature and undermining the life supporting systems of the planet to an unprecedented extent, eroding more soil than all natural processes combined, fixing more nitrogen than all the bacteria on the planet, and substantially altering the land cover and chemistry of the atmosphere and waters. Yet, especially in the United States but also elsewhere, environmental awareness and policy action has been lackluster and hesitant due to a range of factors, including manufactured doubt and denial, psychological, cultural and economic investments in maintenance of status quo, and - when concern does exist - lack of knowledge about how to foster effective change. This paper will examine how recent research findings on human impacts on the planet are being conveyed to non-technical audiences and discuss challenges and opportunities to provide the public with the relevant knowledge and knowhow to address the risks of, and responses to global change. It will argue that a second-wave scientific literacy consisting in deeper understanding of the scientific process must be nurtured as part of a process to capacitate populations, especially youths, to navigate conflicting evidence and claims that surround many environmental threats. Such literacy must be fostered through 'learning conversations,' community and capacity-building, and integrated education, communication and outreach infusing science and solutions to foster a more effective approach to confronting potential catastrophe. 25 February 2013 at 16:30 Pacific Time

  3. Migrants and emerging public health issues in a globalized world: threats, risks and challenges, an evidence-based framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gushulak, Bd; Weekers, J; Macpherson, Dw

    2009-01-01

    International population mobility is an underlying factor in the emergence of public health threats and risks that must be managed globally. These risks are often related, but not limited, to transmissible pathogens. Mobile populations can link zones of disease emergence to lowprevalence or nonendemic areas through rapid or high-volume international movements, or both. Against this background of human movement, other global processes such as economics, trade, transportation, environment and climate change, as well as civil security influence the health impacts of disease emergence. Concurrently, global information systems, together with regulatory frameworks for disease surveillance and reporting, affect organizational and public awareness of events of potential public health significance. International regulations directed at disease mitigation and control have not kept pace with the growing challenges associated with the volume, speed, diversity, and disparity of modern patterns of human movement. The thesis that human population mobility is itself a major determinant of global public health is supported in this article by review of the published literature from the perspective of determinants of health (such as genetics/biology, behavior, environment, and socioeconomics), population-based disease prevalence differences, existing national and international health policies and regulations, as well as inter-regional shifts in population demographics and health outcomes. This paper highlights some of the emerging threats and risks to public health, identifies gaps in existing frameworks to manage health issues associated with migration, and suggests changes in approach to population mobility, globalization, and public health. The proposed integrated approach includes a broad spectrum of stakeholders ranging from individual health-care providers to policy makers and international organizations that are primarily involved in global health management, or are influenced

  4. Assessing Progress in Reducing the At-Risk Population after 13 Years of the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hooper, Pamela J.; Chu, Brian K.; Mikhailov, Alexei; Ottesen, Eric A.; Bradley, Mark

    2014-01-01

    Background In 1997, the World Health Assembly adopted Resolution 50.29, committing to the elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF) as a public health problem, subsequently targeted for 2020. The initial estimates were that 1.2 billion people were at-risk for LF infection globally. Now, 13 years after the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF) began implementing mass drug administration (MDA) against LF in 2000—during which over 4.4 billion treatments have been distributed in 56 endemic countries—it is most appropriate to estimate the impact that the MDA has had on reducing the population at risk of LF. Methodology/Principal Findings To assess GPELF progress in reducing the population at-risk for LF, we developed a model based on defining reductions in risk of infection among cohorts of treated populations following each round of MDA. The model estimates that the number of people currently at risk of infection decreased by 46% to 789 million through 2012. Conclusions/Significance Important progress has been made in the global efforts to eliminate LF, but significant scale-up is required over the next 8 years to reach the 2020 elimination goal. PMID:25411843

  5. Audit Manager Risk Behaviour in a Global Economy – a Research of the Theories on the Determinants of Risk Behaviour

    OpenAIRE

    Ionescu Iancu Octavian

    2010-01-01

    In an increasingly globalised economy, the quality and professionalism of business decisions are intrinsically linked to the risk behaviour of decision makers. The business decision makers are usually faced with a degree of uncertainty when they have to assess risk and make decisions. This paper examines risk behaviour from an audit firm manager perspective and from an academic perspective. The emphasis is on the managerial risk behaviour in business decision making. The research objective is...

  6. Trans-Pacific ENSO teleconnections pose a correlated risk to global agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, W. B.; Seager, R.; Cane, M. A.; Baethgen, W.

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major source of interannual climate variability, particularly in the Pacific Basin. ENSO life-cycles tend to evolve over multiple years, as do the associated trans-Pacific ENSO teleconnections. This analysis, however, represents the first attempt to characterize the structure of the risk posed by ENSO to wheat, maize and soybean production across the Pacific Basin. Our results indicate that most ENSO teleconnections relevant for crop flowering seasons are the result of a single trans-Pacific circulation anomaly that develops in boreal summer and persists through the spring. During the late summer and early fall of a developing ENSO event, the tropical Pacific forces an atmospheric anomaly in the midlatitudes that spans the Pacific Basin. This teleconnection directly links the soybean and maize growing seasons of the US, Mexico and China. It also connects the wheat growing seasons of Argentina, southern Brazil and Australia. The ENSO event peaks in boreal winter, when the atmospheric circulation anomalies intensify and affect maize and soybeans in southeast South America. As the event decays, the ENSO-induced circulation anomalies persist through the wheat flowering seasons in China and the US. While the prospect of ENSO forcing simultaneous droughts in major food producing regions seems disastrous, there may be a silver lining from the perspective of global food security: trans-Pacific ENSO teleconnections to yields are often offsetting between major producing regions in the eastern and western portions of the Pacific Basin. El Niños tend to create good maize and soybean growing conditions in the US and southeast South America, but poor growing conditions in China, Mexico and northeast Brazil. The opposite is true during La Niña. Wheat growing conditions in southeast South America generally have the opposite sign of those in Australia. Finally, we investigate how trade networks interact with this structure of ENSO

  7. Multivariate Models to Forecast Portfolio Value at Risk: from the Dot- Com crisis to the global financial crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel Sousa Gabrie

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzed market risk of an international investment portfolio by means of a new methodological proposal based on Value-at- Risk, using the covariance matrix of multivariate GARCH-type models and the extreme value theory to realize if an international diversification strategy minimizes market risk, and to determine if the VaR methodology adequately captures market risk, by applying Backtesting tests. To this end, we considered twelve international stock indexes, accounting for about 62% of the world stock market capitalization, and chose the period from the Dot-Com crisis to the current global financial crisis. Results show that the proposed methodology is a good alternative to accommodate the high market turbulence and can be considered as an adequate portfolio risk management instrument.

  8. A global airport-based risk model for the spread of dengue infection via the air transport network.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lauren Gardner

    Full Text Available The number of travel-acquired dengue infections has seen a consistent global rise over the past decade. An increased volume of international passenger air traffic originating from regions with endemic dengue has contributed to a rise in the number of dengue cases in both areas of endemicity and elsewhere. This paper reports results from a network-based risk assessment model which uses international passenger travel volumes, travel routes, travel distances, regional populations, and predictive species distribution models (for the two vector species, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus to quantify the relative risk posed by each airport in importing passengers with travel-acquired dengue infections. Two risk attributes are evaluated: (i the risk posed by through traffic at each stopover airport and (ii the risk posed by incoming travelers to each destination airport. The model results prioritize optimal locations (i.e., airports for targeted dengue surveillance. The model is easily extendible to other vector-borne diseases.

  9. Modeling Banking, Sovereign, and Macro Risk in a CCA Global VAR

    OpenAIRE

    Dale F. Gray

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to develop a model framework for the analysis of interactions between banking sector risk, sovereign risk, corporate sector risk, real economic activity, and credit growth for 15 European countries and the United States. It is an integrated macroeconomic systemic risk model framework that draws on the advantages of forward-looking contingent claims analysis (CCA) risk indicators for the banking systems in each country, forward-looking CCA risk indicators for sover...

  10. A global, cross cultural study examining the relationship between employee health risk status and work performance metrics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howarth, Ana; Quesada, Jose; Mills, Peter R

    2017-01-01

    Health risk assessments (HRA) are used by many organisations as a basis for developing relevant and targeted employee health and well-being interventions. However, many HRA's have a western-centric focus and therefore it is unclear whether the results can be directly extrapolated to those from non-western countries. More information regarding the differences in the associations between country status and health risks is needed along with a more global perspective of employee health risk factors and well-being overall. Therefore we aimed to i) quantify and compare associations for a number of health risk factors based on country status, and then ii) explore which characteristics can aid better prediction of well-being levels and in turn workplace productivity globally. Online employee HRA data collected from 254 multi-national companies, for the years 2013 through 2016 was analysed (n = 117,274). Multiple linear regression models were fitted, adjusting for age and gender, to quantify associations between country status and health risk factors. Separate regression models were used to assess the prediction of well-being measures related to productivity. On average, the developing countries were comprised of younger individuals with lower obesity rates and markedly higher job satisfaction compared to their developed country counterparts. However, they also reported higher levels of anxiety and depression, a greater number of health risks and lower job effectiveness. Assessment of key factors related to productivity found that region of residency was the biggest predictor of presenteeism and poor pain management was the biggest predictor of absenteeism. Clear differences in health risks exist between employees from developed and developing countries and these should be considered when addressing well-being and productivity in the global workforce.

  11. Information Seeking about Global Climate Change among Adolescents: The Role of Risk Perceptions, Efficacy Beliefs and Parental Influences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mead, Erin; Roser-Renouf, Connie; Rimal, Rajiv N.; Flora, June A.; Maibach, Edward W.; Leiserowitz, Anthony

    2012-01-01

    Global climate change is likely to have significant impacts on public health. Effective communication is critical to informing public decision making and behavior to mitigate climate change. An effective method of audience segmentation, the risk perception attitude (RPA) framework has been previously tested with other health behaviors and classifies people into 4 groups on the basis of their perceptions of risk and beliefs about personal efficacy. The 4 groups – indifference (low risk, weak efficacy), proactive (low risk, strong efficacy), avoidance (high risk, weak efficacy), and responsive (high risk, strong efficacy) – are hypothesized to differ in their self-protective behaviors and in their motivations to seek information. In this paper, we extend the RPA framework in two ways. First, we use it at the household level to determine whether parental classifications into the 4 groups are associated with their teenage children’s classification into the same 4 groups. Second, we predict adolescent information-seeking behaviors on the basis of their and their parents’ membership in the 4 RPA groups. Results (N = 523 parent-adolescent pairs) indicated that parental membership in the 4 RPA groups was significantly associated with children’s membership in the same 4 groups. Furthermore, the RPA framework was a significant predictor of adolescent information-seeking: those in the responsive and avoidance groups sought more information on climate change than the indifference group. Family communication on global warming was positively associated with adolescents’ information-seeking. Implications for interventions are discussed. PMID:22866024

  12. Childhood socioeconomic status and risk in early family environments: predictors of global sleep quality in college students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Counts, Cory J; Grubin, Fiona C; John-Henderson, Neha A

    2018-06-01

    Low socioeconomic status (SES) in childhood associates with poor sleep quality in adulthood. Separately, childhood family environments shape health into adulthood. Here, we investigated whether these early life factors independently or interactively inform global sleep quality in college students. Cross-sectional. College students at a state university (N = 391). As a measure of childhood SES, we asked participants to consider their families' socioeconomic standing relative to the rest of the society during their childhood. We used the Risky Family questionnaire to measure adversity and the presence of warmth and affection in the family environment during childhood, and the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index as a measure of current global sleep quality. We used linear regressions adjusting for age and sex to examine relationships between childhood SES, risk in childhood family environments, and global sleep quality. Lower childhood SES and greater risk in childhood family environments independently predicted poor sleep quality. Importantly, in low-risk family environments, there was no significant difference in sleep quality as a function of childhood SES. However, students who were from low childhood SES backgrounds who also reported high levels of risk in their early family environments had the worst sleep quality. Findings highlight the importance of considering socioeconomic and family environments in childhood as informants of sleep quality across the lifespan. Compromised sleep quality in college students could affect academic performance and health over time. Copyright © 2018 National Sleep Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Global risk from the atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides by nuclear power plant accidents in the coming decades

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Christoudias, T.; Proestos, Y. [The Cyprus Institute, Nicosia (Cyprus); Lelieveld, J. [The Cyprus Institute, Nicosia (Cyprus); Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz (Germany)

    2014-07-01

    We estimate the global risk from the release and atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides from nuclear power plant accidents using the EMAC atmospheric chemistry-general circulation model. We included all nuclear reactors that are currently operational, under construction and planned or proposed. We implemented constant continuous emissions from each location in the model and simulated atmospheric transport and removal via dry and wet deposition processes over 20 years (2010-2030), driven by boundary conditions based on the IPCC A2 future emissions scenario. We present global overall and seasonal risk maps for potential surface layer concentrations and ground deposition of radionuclides, and estimate potential doses to humans from inhalation and ground-deposition exposures to radionuclides. We find that the risk of harmful doses due to inhalation is typically highest in the Northern Hemisphere during boreal winter, due to relatively shallow boundary layer development and limited mixing. Based on the continued operation of the current nuclear power plants, we calculate that the risk of radioactive contamination to the citizens of the USA will remain to be highest worldwide, followed by India and France. By including stations under construction and those that are planned and proposed, our results suggest that the risk will become highest in China, followed by India and the USA.

  14. Energy choices and risk beliefs: is it just global warming and fear of a nuclear power plant accident?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenberg, Michael; Truelove, Heather Barnes

    2011-05-01

    A survey of 3,200 U.S. residents focused on two issues associated with the use of nuclear and coal fuels to produce electrical energy. The first was the association between risk beliefs and preferences for coal and nuclear energy. As expected, concern about nuclear power plant accidents led to decreased support for nuclear power, and those who believed that coal causes global warming preferred less coal use. Yet other risk beliefs about the coal and nuclear energy fuel cycles were stronger or equal correlates of public preferences. The second issue is the existence of what we call acknowledged risk takers, respondents who favored increased reliance on nuclear energy, although also noting that there could be a serious nuclear plant accident, and those who favored greater coal use, despite acknowledging a link to global warming. The pro-nuclear group disproportionately was affluent educated white males, and the pro-coal group was relatively poor less educated African-American and Latino females. Yet both shared four similarities: older age, trust in management, belief that the energy facilities help the local economy, and individualistic personal values. These findings show that there is no single public with regard to energy preferences and risk beliefs. Rather, there are multiple populations with different viewpoints that surely would benefit by hearing a clear and comprehensive national energy life cycle policy from the national government. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

  15. Rapid Global River Flood Risk Assessment under Climate and Socioeconomic Scenarios: An Extreme Case of Eurasian region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwak, Young-joo; Magome, Jun; Hasegawa, Akira; Iwami, Yoichi

    2017-04-01

    Causing widespread devastation with massive economic damage and loss of human lives, flood disasters hamper economic growth and accelerate poverty particularly in developing countries. Globally, this trend will likely continue due to increase in flood magnitude and lack of preparedness for extreme events. In line with risk reduction efforts since the early 21st century, the monitors and governors of global river floods should pay attention to international scientific and policy communities for support to facilitate evidence-based policy making with a special interest in long-term changes due to climate change and socio-economic effects. Although advanced hydrological inundation models and risk models have been developed to reveal flood risk, hazard, exposure, and vulnerability at a river basin, it is obviously hard to identify the distribution and locations of continent-level flood risk based on national-level data. Therefore, we propose a methodological possibility for rapid global flood risk assessment with the results from its application to the two periods, i.e., Present (from 1980 to 2004) and Future (from 2075 to 2099). The method is particularly designed to effectively simplify complexities of a hazard area by calculating the differential inundation depth using GFID2M (global flood inundation depth 2-dimension model), despite low data availability. In this research, we addressed the question of which parts in the Eurasian region (8E to 180E, 0N to 60N) can be found as high-risk areas in terms of exposed population and economy in case of a 50-year return period flood. Economic losses were estimated according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenario, and the flood scale was defined using the annual maximum daily river discharge under the extreme conditions of climate change simulated with MRI-AGCM3.2S based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP8.5) emissions scenario. As a preliminary result, the total potential economic loss in the

  16. Use of global coronary heart disease risk assessment in practice: a cross-sectional survey of a sample of U.S. physicians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shillinglaw Benjamin

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Global coronary heart disease (CHD risk assessment is recommended to guide primary preventive pharmacotherapy. However, little is known about physicians' understanding and use of global CHD risk assessment. Our objective was to examine US physicians' awareness, use, and attitudes regarding global CHD risk assessment in clinical practice, and how these vary by provider specialty. Methods Using a web-based survey of US family physicians, general internists, and cardiologists, we examined awareness of tools available to calculate CHD risk, method and use of CHD risk assessment, attitudes towards CHD risk assessment, and frequency of using CHD risk assessment to guide recommendations of aspirin, lipid-lowering and blood pressure (BP lowering therapies for primary prevention. Characteristics of physicians indicating they use CHD risk assessments were compared in unadjusted and adjusted analyses. Results A total of 952 physicians completed the questionnaire, with 92% reporting awareness of tools available to calculate CHD global risk. Among those aware of such tools, over 80% agreed that CHD risk calculation is useful, improves patient care, and leads to better decisions about recommending preventive therapies. However, only 41% use CHD risk assessment in practice. The most commonly reported barrier to CHD risk assessment is that it is too time consuming. Among respondents who calculate global CHD risk, 69% indicated they use it to guide lipid lowering therapy recommendations; 54% use it to guide aspirin therapy recommendations; and 48% use it to guide BP lowering therapy. Only 40% of respondents who use global CHD risk routinely tell patients their risk. Use of a personal digital assistant or smart phone was associated with reported use of CHD risk assessment (adjusted OR 1.58; 95% CI 1.17-2.12. Conclusions Reported awareness of tools to calculate global CHD risk appears high, but the majority of physicians in this sample do not

  17. Global prevalence of, and risk factors for, gastro-oesophageal reflux symptoms: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eusebi, Leonardo H; Ratnakumaran, Raguprakash; Yuan, Yuhong; Solaymani-Dodaran, Masoud; Bazzoli, Franco; Ford, Alexander C

    2018-03-01

    Gastro-oesophageal reflux symptoms are common in the community, but there has been no definitive systematic review and meta-analysis of data from all studies to estimate their global prevalence, or potential risk factors for them. Medline, Embase and Embase Classic were searched (until September 2016) to identify population-based studies that reported the prevalence of gastro-oesophageal reflux symptoms in adults (≥15 years); gastro-oesophageal reflux was defined using symptom-based criteria or questionnaires. The prevalence was extracted for all studies, and according to the criteria used to define it. Pooled prevalence, according to study location and certain other characteristics, OR and 95% CIs were calculated. Of the 14 132 citations evaluated, 102 reported the prevalence of gastro-oesophageal reflux symptoms in 108 separate study populations, containing 460 984 subjects. Prevalence varied according to country (from 2.5% in China to 51.2% in Greece) and criteria used to define gastro-oesophageal reflux symptoms. When only studies using a weekly frequency of heart burn or regurgitation to define presence were considered, pooled prevalence was 13.3% (95% CI 12.0% to 14.6%). Prevalence was higher in subjects ≥50 years (OR 1.32; 95% CI 1.12 to 1.54), smokers (OR 1.26; 95% CI 1.04 to 1.52), non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID)/aspirin users (OR 1.44; 95% CI 1.10 to 1.88) and obese individuals (OR 1.73; 95% CI 1.46 to 2.06). The prevalence of gastro-oesophageal reflux symptoms varied strikingly among countries, even when similar definitions were used to define their presence. Prevalence was significantly higher in subjects ≥50 years, smokers, NSAID users and obese individuals, although these associations were modest. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  18. Evidence-based risk assessment and communication: a new global dengue-risk map for travellers and clinicians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jentes, Emily S; Lash, R Ryan; Johansson, Michael A; Sharp, Tyler M; Henry, Ronnie; Brady, Oliver J; Sotir, Mark J; Hay, Simon I; Margolis, Harold S; Brunette, Gary W

    2016-06-01

    International travel can expose travellers to pathogens not commonly found in their countries of residence, like dengue virus. Travellers and the clinicians who advise and treat them have unique needs for understanding the geographic extent of risk for dengue. Specifically, they should assess the need for prevention measures before travel and ensure appropriate treatment of illness post-travel. Previous dengue-risk maps published in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Yellow Book lacked specificity, as there was a binary (risk, no risk) classification. We developed a process to compile evidence, evaluate it and apply more informative risk classifications. We collected more than 839 observations from official reports, ProMED reports and published scientific research for the period 2005-2014. We classified each location as frequent/continuous risk if there was evidence of more than 10 dengue cases in at least three of the previous 10 years. For locations that did not fit this criterion, we classified locations as sporadic/uncertain risk if the location had evidence of at least one locally acquired dengue case during the last 10 years. We used expert opinion in limited instances to augment available data in areas where data were sparse. Initial categorizations classified 134 areas as frequent/continuous and 140 areas as sporadic/uncertain. CDC subject matter experts reviewed all initial frequent/continuous and sporadic/uncertain categorizations and the previously uncategorized areas. From this review, most categorizations stayed the same; however, 11 categorizations changed from the initial determinations. These new risk classifications enable detailed consideration of dengue risk, with clearer meaning and a direct link to the evidence that supports the specific classification. Since many infectious diseases have dynamic risk, strong geographical heterogeneities and varying data quality and availability, using this approach for other diseases can

  19. Risk Assessment of Diabetes Mellitus by Chaotic Globals to Heart Rate Variability via Six Power Spectra

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Garner David M.

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: The priniciple objective here is to analyze cardiovascular dynamics in diabetic subjects by actions related to heart rate variability (HRV. The correlation of chaotic globals is vital to evaluate the probability of dynamical diseases.

  20. Flood risk and adaptation strategies under climate change and urban expansion: A probabilistic analysis using global data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muis, Sanne; Güneralp, Burak; Jongman, Brenden; Aerts, Jeroen C J H; Ward, Philip J

    2015-12-15

    An accurate understanding of flood risk and its drivers is crucial for effective risk management. Detailed risk projections, including uncertainties, are however rarely available, particularly in developing countries. This paper presents a method that integrates recent advances in global-scale modeling of flood hazard and land change, which enables the probabilistic analysis of future trends in national-scale flood risk. We demonstrate its application to Indonesia. We develop 1000 spatially-explicit projections of urban expansion from 2000 to 2030 that account for uncertainty associated with population and economic growth projections, as well as uncertainty in where urban land change may occur. The projections show that the urban extent increases by 215%-357% (5th and 95th percentiles). Urban expansion is particularly rapid on Java, which accounts for 79% of the national increase. From 2000 to 2030, increases in exposure will elevate flood risk by, on average, 76% and 120% for river and coastal floods. While sea level rise will further increase the exposure-induced trend by 19%-37%, the response of river floods to climate change is highly uncertain. However, as urban expansion is the main driver of future risk, the implementation of adaptation measures is increasingly urgent, regardless of the wide uncertainty in climate projections. Using probabilistic urban projections, we show that spatial planning can be a very effective adaptation strategy. Our study emphasizes that global data can be used successfully for probabilistic risk assessment in data-scarce countries. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Implementation of coordinated global serotype 2 oral poliovirus vaccine cessation: risks of potential non-synchronous cessation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duintjer Tebbens, Radboud J; Hampton, Lee M; Thompson, Kimberly M

    2016-05-26

    The endgame for polio eradication involves coordinated global cessation of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) with cessation of serotype 2 OPV (OPV2 cessation) implemented in late April and early May 2016 and cessation of serotypes 1 and 3 OPV (OPV13 cessation) currently planned for after 2018. The logistics associated with globally switching all use of trivalent OPV (tOPV) to bivalent OPV (bOPV) represent a significant undertaking, which may cause some complications, including delays that lead to different timing of the switch across shared borders. Building on an integrated global model for long-term poliovirus risk management, we consider the expected vulnerability of different populations to transmission of OPV2-related polioviruses as a function of time following the switch. We explore the relationship between the net reproduction number (Rn) of OPV2 at the time of the switch and the time until OPV2-related viruses imported from countries still using OPV2 can establish transmission. We also analyze some specific situations modeled after populations at high potential risk of circulating serotype 2 vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV2) outbreaks in the event of a non-synchronous switch. Well-implemented tOPV immunization activities prior to the tOPV to bOPV switch (i.e., tOPV intensification sufficient to prevent the creation of indigenous cVDPV2 outbreaks) lead to sufficient population immunity to transmission to cause die-out of any imported OPV2-related viruses for over 6 months after the switch in all populations in the global model. Higher Rn of OPV2 at the time of the switch reduces the time until imported OPV2-related viruses can establish transmission and increases the time during which indigenous OPV2-related viruses circulate. Modeling specific connected populations suggests a relatively low vulnerability to importations of OPV2-related viruses that could establish transmission in the context of a non-synchronous switch from tOPV to bOPV, unless the gap

  2. From Thoughts To Action - Linking Practice, Science, Policy And Decision Making: Dissemination Activities Of The Global Risk Forum, GRF Davos

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stal, Marc; Sutter, Corina; Ammann, Walter

    2010-05-01

    The world's growing population in combination with expanding urbanisation, globalisation and climate change has greatly aggravated the risk potential to all communities and nations. These increasing risks imply the intensification of worldwide disasters, hence collaborations and worldwide knowledge exchange to mitigate these negative impacts is mandatory. How can these exchange and collaboration activities take place? The Global Risk Forum, GRF Davos addresses the variety of risks that face communities with a special focus on climate change, natural hazards, environmental degradation as well as technical, biological risks, pandemics and terrorism - all across different political institutions, national and international organisations, countries and business sectors. One of GRF's main goals is to bridge the gap between science and practice and to promote and accelerate the worldwide exchange of know-how and experience. GRF Davos aims at targeting solutions and promoting good practice in integral risk management and climate change adaptation.. The Forum also provides and manages a network for decision-makers, practitioners and experts from politics, government, IGOs, business, science, NGOs, media and the public and works on maintaining and expanding these networks constantly to enable the dissemination of disaster and risk reduction techniques. In order to link practice, science, policy and decision making, GRF Davos has three pillars, the Risk Academy, the International Disaster and Risk Conferences and Workshops (IDRC) as well as the online Platform for Networks. With its pillars, the GRFs aims at reducing vulnerability for all types of risks and disasters to protect life, property, environment, critical infrastructure and all means of business for the worldwide community on a sustainable basis.

  3. The influence of spatial resolution on human health risk co-benefit estimates for global climate policy assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shih, Hsiu-Ching; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Ma, Hwong-wen

    2015-03-15

    Assessment of the ability of climate policies to produce desired improvements in public health through co-benefits of air pollution reduction can consume resources in both time and research funds. These resources increase significantly as the spatial resolution of models increases. In addition, the level of spatial detail available in macroeconomic models at the heart of climate policy assessments is much lower than that available in traditional human health risk modeling. It is therefore important to determine whether increasing spatial resolution considerably affects risk-based decisions; which kinds of decisions might be affected; and under what conditions they will be affected. Human health risk co-benefits from carbon emissions reductions that bring about concurrent reductions in Particulate Matter (PM10) emissions is therefore examined here at four levels of spatial resolution (Uniform Nation, Uniform Region, Uniform County/city, Health Risk Assessment) in a case study of Taiwan as one of the geographic regions of a global macroeceonomic model, with results that are representative of small, industrialized nations within that global model. A metric of human health risk mortality (YOLL, years of life lost in life expectancy) is compared under assessments ranging from a "uniform simulation" in which there is no spatial resolution of changes in ambient air concentration under a policy to a "highly spatially resolved simulation" (called here Health Risk Assessment). PM10 is chosen in this study as the indicator of air pollution for which risks are assessed due to its significance as a co-benefit of carbon emissions reductions within climate mitigation policy. For the policy examined, the four estimates of mortality in the entirety of Taiwan are 747 YOLL, 834 YOLL, 984 YOLL and 916 YOLL, under Uniform Taiwan, Uniform Region, Uniform County and Health Risk Assessment respectively; or differences of 18%, 9%, 7% if the HRA methodology is taken as the baseline. While

  4. IRSN 2007 barometer: perception of risks and security by French people. Global results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-07-01

    This report presents under the form of graphs and comments the results of the annual IRSN opinion poll on matters of risk and security. The IRSN is the French Institute of Radioprotection and Nuclear Safety. Different themes are analysed: the present concerns for French people (in the present society, for the environment, about industrial risks and the image of science), the perception of expertise (who should control an installation, the role and the image of scientific experts, access to expertise documents), the public interest in risk issues (topic of interest, participation to information sessions), the attitude in front of 30 risk situations (presently perceived risks, confidence in public authorities to ensure their protection, truth about information on hazards, hierarchy of 30 situations). The last part is dedicated to the nuclear domain (nuclear risk, skill and credibility of interveners)

  5. Managing cyber-risk and security in the global supply chain: a systems analysis approach to risk, structure and behaviour

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sepúlveda Estay, Daniel Alberto

    -term legal ramifications. As a result, little information about attacks and their consequences is published. Supply chains continue to prepare for cyber-attacks through a mix of traditional risk and resilience frameworks, protecting their networks through patches, firewalls and antiviruses, or financially...

  6. A global approach to risk management: lessons from the nuclear industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lazo, T.; Kaufer, B.

    2003-01-01

    The industry's nuclear safety experts are continuously striving to minimise the possible risk and extent of a nuclear accident, while nuclear regulatory, authorities work to ensure that all safety requirements are met. Relying on a combination of deterministic and probabilistic approaches, they are obtaining positive results in terms of both risk-informed regulation and nuclear safety management. This article addresses this aspect of risk management, as well as the management of radiation exposure risk. It looks into nuclear emergency planning, preparedness and management, and stresses the importance of coordinating potential protection approaches and providing effective communication should a nuclear accident occur. (authors)

  7. The IRSN 2006 barometer. The opinion on risks and security of the French population. Global results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    This report presents and comments the results of a survey during which a sample of the French population has been questioned on their current concerns (about the society, about the environment, about their opinion on industrial risks, on scientific expertise, on who should control a risky installation), the opinion on 28 risk situations (risks to which French people feel exposed, confidence in authorities, truth of information on hazards, hierarchy of the 28 situations, acceptability of installations), the opinion on the nuclear activity and industry (the nuclear risk, the credibility and expertise of interveners, and the issue of radioactive wastes and public debate)

  8. Forced sexual initiation, sexual intimate partner violence and HIV risk in women: A global review of the literature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stockman, Jamila K.; Lucea, Marguerite B.; Campbell, Jacquelyn C.

    2012-01-01

    Coerced or forced sexual initiation and sexual intimate partner violence (sexual IPV) contribute significantly to a woman’s risk for HIV infection. This review systematically examines global research (n=21 studies) published since 2000 on the role of coerced/forced sexual initiation and sexual IPV on HIV risk in women. In predominantly low- and middle-income countries, coerced/forced sexual initiation was associated with HIV/STIs, multiple and high-risk sex partners, and no condom use. Most studies using behaviorally specific terms for sexual IPV found strong associations between sexual IPV and HIV risk behaviors. In contrast, studies using less specific definitions often failed to find these significant associations. To develop more comprehensive HIV prevention programs, future efforts should integrate behaviorally specific terms into assessing prevalence of sexual IPV and its association with HIV risk, consider cultural differences, and identify causal pathways between coerced or forced sexual initiation, HIV risk behaviors and HIV/STI infection. PMID:23143750

  9. Escalating heat-stress mortality risk due to global warming in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmadalipour, Ali; Moradkhani, Hamid

    2018-08-01

    Climate change will substantially exacerbate extreme temperature and heatwaves. The impacts will be more intense across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), a region mostly characterized by hot and arid climate, already intolerable for human beings in many parts. In this study, daily climate data from 17 fine-resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are acquired to calculate wet-bulb temperature and investigate the mortality risk for people aged over 65 years caused by excessive heat stress across the MENA region. Spatially adaptive temperature thresholds are implemented for quantifying the mortality risk, and the analysis is conducted for the historical period of 1951-2005 and two future scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 during the 2006-2100 period. Results show that the mortality risk will increase in distant future to 8-20 times higher than that of the historical period if no climate change mitigation is implemented. The coastal regions of the Red sea, Persian Gulf, and Mediterranean Sea indicate substantial increase in mortality risk. Nonetheless, the risk ratio will be limited to 3-7 times if global warming is limited to 2 °C. Climate change planning and adaptation is imperative for mitigating heat-related mortality risk across the region. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Balancing the benefits and risks of public-private partnerships to address the global double burden of malnutrition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kraak, Vivica I; Harrigan, Paige B; Lawrence, Mark; Harrison, Paul J; Jackson, Michaela A; Swinburn, Boyd

    2012-03-01

    Transnational food, beverage and restaurant companies, and their corporate foundations, may be potential collaborators to help address complex public health nutrition challenges. While UN system guidelines are available for private-sector engagement, non-governmental organizations (NGO) have limited guidelines to navigate diverse opportunities and challenges presented by partnering with these companies through public-private partnerships (PPP) to address the global double burden of malnutrition. We conducted a search of electronic databases, UN system websites and grey literature to identify resources about partnerships used to address the global double burden of malnutrition. A narrative summary provides a synthesis of the interdisciplinary literature identified. We describe partnership opportunities, benefits and challenges; and tools and approaches to help NGO engage with the private sector to address global public health nutrition challenges. PPP benefits include: raising the visibility of nutrition and health on policy agendas; mobilizing funds and advocating for research; strengthening food-system processes and delivery systems; facilitating technology transfer; and expanding access to medications, vaccines, healthy food and beverage products, and nutrition assistance during humanitarian crises. PPP challenges include: balancing private commercial interests with public health interests; managing conflicts of interest; ensuring that co-branded activities support healthy products and healthy eating environments; complying with ethical codes of conduct; assessing partnership compatibility; and evaluating partnership outcomes. NGO should adopt a systematic and transparent approach using available tools and processes to maximize benefits and minimize risks of partnering with transnational food, beverage and restaurant companies to effectively target the global double burden of malnutrition.

  11. IRSN 2011 opinion survey. The perception of risks and safety by French people. Global results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    Like every year, this report presents and comments the results of an opinion survey on risks, and more particularly on nuclear and radiological risks. The first part addresses the current concerns of French people (the main concerns in the present society and with respect to the environment, how science is considered). The second part addresses the opinion on expertise (who should control a hazardous installation, the role and image of experts, the access to expertise files, the perception of pluralist bodies). The third part examines the reaction of people in front of 33 different hazardous situations (risks to which people feel being exposed, confidence in authorities, confidence in information on hazards, hierarchy of 33 situations and relationship with installation acceptability). The fourth part addresses the nuclear issue (nuclear risk, ability and credibility of nuclear actors, the Chernobyl accident, radioactive wastes, demand of information on the nuclear risk).

  12. The IRSN 2008 barometer. The opinion on risks and security of the French population. Global results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    This report presents and comments the results of a survey during which a sample of the French population has been questioned on their current concerns (about the society, about the environment, about quantitative criteria of risk management and about the image of science), on their opinion of scientific expertise (who should control a risky installation, the role and image of experts, the access to expertise files, the perception of pluralist structures), the opinion on 31 risk situations (risks to which French people feel exposed, confidence in authorities, truth of information on hazards, hierarchy of the 31 situations), the opinion on the nuclear activity and industry (the nuclear risk, the credibility and expertise of interveners), incidents which occurred in 2007, the demand of information on the nuclear risk), and on their opinion about radiotherapy accidents in France

  13. Risk Based Monitoring (RBM: A global study focusing on perception and merits among clinical investigational sites

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prajna P. Kumar

    2016-12-01

    Conclusion: This unique study performed across ten emerging and developed countries strongly supported the need for systematic global training, education, and implementation of RBM regulatory guidance, with an aim for better safety of subjects and improved quality of clinical trial data. Furthermore, studies with larger sample sizes are recommended to provide an evidence-based approach.

  14. Trait Acclimation Mitigates Mortality Risks of Tropical Canopy Trees under Global Warming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sterck, Frank; Anten, Niels P.R.; Schieving, Feike; Zuidema, Pieter A.

    2016-01-01

    There is a heated debate about the effect of global change on tropical forests. Many scientists predict large-scale tree mortality while others point to mitigating roles of CO2 fertilization and – the notoriously unknown – physiological trait acclimation of trees. In this opinion article we provided

  15. Data poverty: A global evaluation for 2009 to 2013 - implications for sustainable development and disaster risk reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leidig, Mathias; Teeuw, Richard M.; Gibson, Andrew D.

    2016-08-01

    The article presents a time series (2009-2013) analysis for a new version of the ;Digital Divide; concept that developed in the 1990s. Digital information technologies, such as the Internet, mobile phones and social media, provide vast amounts of data for decision-making and resource management. The Data Poverty Index (DPI) provides an open-source means of annually evaluating global access to data and information. The DPI can be used to monitor aspects of data and information availability at global and national levels, with potential application at local (district) levels. Access to data and information is a major factor in disaster risk reduction, increased resilience to disaster and improved adaptation to climate change. In that context, the DPI could be a useful tool for monitoring the Sustainable Development Goals of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015-2030). The effects of severe data poverty, particularly limited access to geoinformatic data, free software and online training materials, are discussed in the context of sustainable development and disaster risk reduction. Unlike many other indices, the DPI is underpinned by datasets that are consistently provided annually for almost all the countries of the world and can be downloaded without restriction or cost.

  16. Assessing the Effects of Information About Global Population Growth on Risk Perceptions and Support for Mitigation and Prevention Strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, Ian G J

    2018-05-16

    The human population is forecast to increase by 3-4 billion people during this century and many scientists have expressed concerns that this could increase the likelihood of certain adverse events (e.g., climate change and resource shortages). Recent research shows that these concerns are mirrored in public risk perceptions and that these perceptions correlate with a willingness to adopt mitigation behaviors (e.g., reduce resource consumption) and preventative actions (e.g., support actions to limit growth). However, little research has assessed the factors that influence risk perceptions of global population growth (GPG). To contribute to this important goal, this article presents three studies that examined how risk perceptions of GPG might be influenced by textual-visual representations (like those in media and Internet articles) of the potential effects of GPG. Study 1 found that a textual narrative that highlighted the potential negative (cf. positive) consequences of GPG led to higher perceived risk and greater willingness to adopt mitigation behaviors, but not to support preventative actions. Notably, the influence of the narratives on perceived risk was largely moderated by the participant's prior knowledge and perceptions of GPG. Contrary to expectations, studies 2 and 3 revealed, respectively, that photographs depicting GPG-related imagery and graphs depicting GPG rates had no significant effect on the perceived risk of GPG or the willingness to embrace mitigation or preventative actions. However, study 3 found that individuals with higher "graph literacy" perceived GPG as a higher risk and were more willing to adopt mitigation behaviors and support preventative actions. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

  17. Global analysis of threat status reveals higher extinction risk in tropical than in temperate bird sister species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reif Jiří

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Given increasing pressures upon biodiversity, identification of species’ traits related to elevated extinction risk is useful for more efficient allocation of limited resources for nature conservation. Despite its need, such a global analysis was lacking in the case of birds. Therefore, we performed this exercise for avian sister species using information about their global extinction risk from IUCN Red List. We focused on 113 pairs of sister species, each containing a threatened and an unthreatened species to factor out the effects of common evolutionary history on the revealed relationship. We collected data on five traits with expected relationships to species’ extinction risk based on previous studies performed at regional or national levels: breeding habitat (recognizing forest, grassland, wetland and oceanic species, latitudinal range position (temperate and tropics species, migration strategy (migratory and resident species, diet (carnivorous, insectivorous, herbivorous and omnivorous species and body mass. We related the extinction risk using IUCN threat level categories to species’ traits using generalised linear mixed effects models expecting lower risk for forest, temperate, omnivorous and smaller-bodied species. Our expectation was confirmed only in the case of latitudinal range position, as we revealed higher threat level for tropical than for temperate species. This relationship was robust to different methods of threat level expression and cannot be explained by a simple association of high bird species richness with the tropical zone. Instead, it seems that tropical species are more threatened because of their intrinsic characteristics such as slow life histories, adaptations to stable environments and small geographic ranges. These characteristics are obviously disadvantageous in conditions of current human-induced environmental perturbations. Moreover, given the absence of habitat effects, our study indicates that such

  18. A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Craig D.; Macalady, A.K.; Chenchouni, H.; Bachelet, D.; McDowell, N.; Vennetier, Michel; Kitzberger, T.; Rigling, A.; Breshears, D.D.; Hogg, E.H.(T.); Gonzalez, P.; Fensham, R.; Zhang, Z.; Castro, J.; Demidova, N.; Lim, J.-H.; Allard, G.; Running, S.W.; Semerci, A.; Cobb, N.

    2010-01-01

    Greenhouse gas emissions have significantly altered global climate, and will continue to do so in the future. Increases in the frequency, duration, and/or severity of drought and heat stress associated with climate change could fundamentally alter the composition, structure, and biogeography of forests in many regions. Of particular concern are potential increases in tree mortality associated with climate-induced physiological stress and interactions with other climate-mediated processes such as insect outbreaks and wildfire. Despite this risk, existing projections of tree mortality are based on models that lack functionally realistic mortality mechanisms, and there has been no attempt to track observations of climate-driven tree mortality globally. Here we present the first global assessment of recent tree mortality attributed to drought and heat stress. Although episodic mortality occurs in the absence of climate change, studies compiled here suggest that at least some of the world's forested ecosystems already may be responding to climate change and raise concern that forests may become increasingly vulnerable to higher background tree mortality rates and die-off in response to future warming and drought, even in environments that are not normally considered water-limited. This further suggests risks to ecosystem services, including the loss of sequestered forest carbon and associated atmospheric feedbacks. Our review also identifies key information gaps and scientific uncertainties that currently hinder our ability to predict tree mortality in response to climate change and emphasizes the need for a globally coordinated observation system. Overall, our review reveals the potential for amplified tree mortality due to drought and heat in forests worldwide.

  19. Global challenges in the risk assessment of nanomaterials: Relevance to South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mary Gulumian

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Internationally, there are efforts to develop standardised toxicity testing and risk assessmentmethods for engineered nanomaterials (ENMs. To this end, health risk assessments need tobe conducted on ENMs synthesised in South Africa. Country-specific risk characterisationrequires specific exposure assessments for those ENMs for which the likelihood exists foroccupational and environmental exposure in that country. A challenge in hazard identificationand risk assessment related to ENMs, regardless of country of origin, is that data on toxicity,carcinogenicity, pharmacokinetics, and occupational or environmental exposure are generallynot available for most ENMs. Although the mechanisms previously identified as importantin the toxicity and carcinogenicity of particles and fibres may be applicable, the possibilityexists that the unusual physicochemical properties of ENMs may give rise to unique, andas yet unidentified, adverse effects. Moreover, generalised exposure scenarios that considerthe life cycle of the agent have not been developed and are needed for the complete riskcharacterisation of ENMs. As health risk assessment is both resource and labour intensive, it isimperative to identify the aims of such an exercise prior to embarking on large-scale projects,to ensure that the data most useful for public health decision-making is provided. Identifyingpriorities in South Africa, in coordination with international efforts, can facilitate the effectiveuse of research efforts for risk assessment and risk management decision-making.

  20. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990–2016

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moesgaard Iburg, Kim

    2017-01-01

    surveillance and inform policy debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs......), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2016. This study included 481 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk (RR......) and exposure estimates from 22 717 randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources, according to the GBD 2016 source counting methods. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated...

  1. Developing methodology and tools for integrated assessment of the risks of global environmental change: Analyzing uncertainty, risk assessment, risk perception, expert judgment, and a case study on sea level rise. Report of collaborative research, July 1991--June 1993: Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lancaster, J.; Shlyakhter, A.; Wilson, R.

    1993-01-01

    Members of Congress, federal administrators, state regulators, city planners, corporate strategists and private citizens face decisions that may or may not warrant considering the potential impacts of climate change. The extent to which the global warming issue will weigh in these many decisions will be determined by (a) expert scientific judgement about global warming and its potential impacts, (b) public perception of the global warming problem, (c) uncertainties, and (d) other legal and political factors controlling the entry of a large-scale environmental issue into many avenues of decision making. The complexity and uncertainty surrounding the problem of climate change present new challenges to our ability to formulate rational decisions. The authors provide a methodical approach to characterizing the risks of global warming in a way that will be useful to decision makers

  2. Food Safety Management in a Global Environment: The Role of Risk Assessment Models

    OpenAIRE

    Fuentes-Pila, Joaquin; Jimeno, Vicente; Manzano, Amparo; Rodriguez Monroy, Carlos; Mar Fernandez, Maria Del

    2006-01-01

    Quantitative risk assessment models are playing a minor role in the development of the new EU legal framework for food safety. There is a tendency of the EU institutions to apply the precautionary principle versus the predisposition of the USA institutions to rely on risk analysis. This paper provides a comparison of the role played by quantitative risk assessment models in the development of new policies on food safety in the EU and in the USA, focusing on a study case: the supply chain of s...

  3. Risk management for existing energy facilities. A global approach to numerical safety goals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pate-Cornell, M.E.

    1993-01-01

    This paper presents a structured set of numerical safety goals for risk management of existing energy facilities. The rationale behind these safety goals is based on principles of equity and economic efficiency. Some of the issues involved when using probabilistic risk analyses results for safety decisions are discussed. A brief review of existing safety targets and open-quotes floating numbersclose quotes is presented, and a set of safety goals for industrial risk management is proposed. Relaxation of these standards for existing facilities, the relevance of the lifetime of the plant, the treatment of uncertainties, and problems of failure dependencies are discussed briefly. 17 refs., 1 fig

  4. Cascading effect of economic globalization on human risks of scrub typhus and tick-borne rickettsial diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuo, Chi-Chien; Huang, Jing-Lun; Shu, Pei-Yun; Lee, Pei-Lung; Kelt, Douglas A; Wang, Hsi-Chieh

    2012-09-01

    The increase in global travel and trade has facilitated the dissemination of disease vectors. Globalization can also indirectly affect vector-borne diseases through the liberalization of cross-border trade, which has far-reaching, worldwide effects on agricultural practices and may in turn influence vectors through the modification of the ecological landscape. While the cascading effect of economic globalization on vector-borne diseases, sometimes acting synergistically with regional agricultural policy, could be substantial and have significant economic, agricultural, and public health implications, research into this remains very limited. We evaluated how abandonment of rice paddies in Taiwan after joining the World Trade Organization, along with periodic plowing, an agricultural policy to reduce farm pests in abandoned fields can unexpectedly influence risks to diseases transmitted by ticks and chiggers (larval trombiculid mites), which we collected from their small-mammal hosts. Sampling was limited to abandoned (fallow) and plowed fields due to the challenge of trapping small mammals in flooded rice paddies. Striped field mice (Apodemus agrarius) are the main hosts for both vectors. They harbored six times more ticks and three times more chiggers in fallow than in plowed plots. The proportion of ticks infected with Rickettsia spp. (etiologic agent of spotted fever) was three times higher in fallow plots, while that of Orientia tsutsugamushi (scrub typhus) in chiggers was similar in both treatments. Fallow plots had more ground cover and higher vegetation than plowed ones. Moreover, ticks and chiggers in both field types were dominated by species known to infest humans. Because ticks and chiggers should exhibit very low survival in flooded rice paddies, we propose that farm abandonment in Taiwan, driven by globalization, may have inadvertently led to increased risks of spotted fever and scrub typhus. However, periodic plowing can unintentionally mitigate vector

  5. The IRSN 2010 barometer. The opinion on risks and security of the French population. Global results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-01-01

    This report presents and comments the results of a survey during which a sample of the French population has been questioned on their current concerns (about the society, about the environment, about the image of science), on their opinion on scientific expertise (who should control a risky installation, the role and image of experts, the access to expertise files, the perception of pluralist structures), the opinion on 32 risk situations (risks to which French people feel exposed, confidence in authorities, truth of information on hazards, hierarchy of the 32 situations), the opinion on the nuclear activity and industry (the nuclear risk, the credibility and expertise of interveners, incidents which occurred in 2008, the demand of information on the nuclear risk)

  6. The IRSN 2009 barometer. The opinion on risks and security of the French population. Global results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    This report presents and comments the results of a survey during which a sample of the French population has been questioned on their current concerns (about the society, about the environment, about the image of science), on their opinion on scientific expertise (who should control a risky installation, the role and image of experts, the access to expertise files, the perception of pluralist structures), the opinion on 31 risk situations (risks to which French people feel exposed, confidence in authorities, truth of information on hazards, hierarchy of the 31 situations), the opinion on the nuclear activity and industry (the nuclear risk, the credibility and expertise of interveners, incidents which occurred in 2008, the demand of information on the nuclear risk)

  7. AUSERA: Large-Scale Automated Security Risk Assessment of Global Mobile Banking Apps

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Sen; Meng, Guozhu; Su, Ting; Fan, Lingling; Xue, Yinxing; Liu, Yang; Xu, Lihua; Xue, Minhui; Li, Bo; Hao, Shuang

    2018-01-01

    Contemporary financial technology (FinTech) that enables cashless mobile payment has been widely adopted by financial institutions, such as banks, due to its convenience and efficiency. However, FinTech has also made massive and dynamic transactions susceptible to security risks. Given large financial losses caused by such vulnerabilities, regulatory technology (RegTech) has been developed, but more comprehensive security risk assessment is specifically desired to develop robust, scalable, an...

  8. Risks for the global freshwater system at 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Döll, Petra; Trautmann, Tim; Gerten, Dieter; Müller Schmied, Hannes; Ostberg, Sebastian; Saaed, Fahad; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich

    2018-04-01

    To support implementation of the Paris Agreement, the new HAPPI ensemble of 20 bias-corrected simulations of four climate models was used to drive two global hydrological models, WaterGAP and LPJmL, for assessing freshwater-related hazards and risks in worlds approximately 1.5 °C and 2 °C warmer than pre-industrial. Quasi-stationary HAPPI simulations are better suited than transient CMIP-like simulations for assessing hazards at the two targeted long-term global warming (GW) levels. We analyzed seven hydrological hazard indicators that characterize freshwater-related hazards for humans, freshwater biota and vegetation. Using a strict definition for significant differences, we identified for all but one indicator that areas with either significantly wetter or drier conditions (calculated as percent changes from 2006–2015) are smaller in the 1.5 °C world. For example, 7 day high flow is projected to increase significantly on 11% and 21% of the global land area at 1.5 °C and 2 °C, respectively. However, differences between hydrological hazards at the two GW levels are significant on less than 12% of the area. GW affects a larger area and more people by increases—rather than by decreases—of mean annual and 1-in-10 dry year streamflow, 7 day high flow, and groundwater recharge. The opposite is true for 7 day low flow, maximum snow storage, and soil moisture in the driest month of the growing period. Mean annual streamflow shows the lowest projected percent changes of all indicators. Among country groups, low income countries and lower middle income countries are most affected by decreased low flows and increased high flows, respectively, while high income countries are least affected by such changes. The incremental impact between 1.5 °C and 2 °C on high flows would be felt most by low income and lower middle income countries, the effect on soil moisture and low flows most by high income countries.

  9. Global financial crisis, banking crisis and first country risk in the viewpoint of domestic risk rating agencies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dr.Sc. Ingrid Shuli

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available In a period of dire financial crisis, with which all countries seem to cope, it seemed interesting to analyse the assessment of the risk for our country, viewed from the vantage point of our domestic rating agencies, but also compared to assessments made to our country by international rating agencies, such as Moody’s rating agency, Standard & Poor rating agency, Fitch ratings agency etc. The objective of this study is to recognize indicators and factors affecting the risk assessment and rating of a country, and evaluate whether there has been an impact of the financial crisis faced by other countries in the rating given to Albanian by domestic and foreign agencies. We stopped at the history of earlier financial crisis development to understand bewtter what is happening in this financial crisis. We shall develop upon a wide existing literature, and a range of credible resources such as the IMF, the World Bank, the International Institute of Finance, Economic Intelligence Unit, and local official data sources, eg. The Bank of Albania and INSTAT.

  10. Global Asset Pricing: Is There a Role for Long-run Consumption Risk?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rangvid, Jesper; Schmelling, Maik; Schrimpf, Andreas

    We estimate long-run consumption-based asset pricing models using a comprehensive set of international test assets, including broad equity market portfolios, international value/growth portfolios, and international bond portfolios. We find that differences in returns across assets within a countr...... that consumption growth is more predictable over short to medium-run horizons than over longer horizons and that empirical evidence of a de- clining risk aversion parameter estimate in long-run risk models has to be interpreted with care....... are sometimes (and most prominently for the U.S.) better captured by the assets' exposure to long-run consumption risk as opposed to their exposure to one-period changes in consumption (the canonical consumption CAPM). Across countries, however, exposure to long-run consumption risk does not provide a better...... fit than the canonical consumption CAPM. Thus, when characterizing the cross-country distribution of returns, long-run consumption risk does not seem to play any particular role, even if long-run risk is important for explaining the cross section of expected returns in the U.S. Furthermore, we show...

  11. Alimentary Habits, Physical Activity, and Framingham Global Risk Score in Metabolic Syndrome

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soares, Thays Soliman; Piovesan, Carla Haas; Gustavo, Andréia da Silva; Macagnan, Fabrício Edler; Bodanese, Luiz Carlos; Feoli, Ana Maria Pandolfo, E-mail: anamariafeoli@hotmail.com [Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio Grande do Sul (PUCRS), Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil)

    2014-04-15

    Metabolic syndrome is a complex disorder represented by a set of cardiovascular risk factors. A healthy lifestyle is strongly related to improve Quality of Life and interfere positively in the control of risk factors presented in this condition. To evaluate the effect of a program of lifestyle modification on the Framingham General Cardiovascular Risk Profile in subjects diagnosed with metabolic syndrome. A sub-analysis study of a randomized clinical trial controlled blind that lasted three months. Participants were randomized into four groups: dietary intervention + placebo (DIP), dietary intervention + supplementation of omega 3 (fish oil 3 g/day) (DIS3), dietary intervention + placebo + physical activity (DIPE) and dietary intervention + physical activity + supplementation of omega 3 (DIS3PE). The general cardiovascular risk profile of each individual was calculated before and after the intervention. The study included 70 subjects. Evaluating the score between the pre and post intervention yielded a significant value (p < 0.001). We obtained a reduction for intermediate risk in 25.7% of subjects. After intervention, there was a significant reduction (p < 0.01) on cardiovascular age, this being more significant in groups DIP (5.2%) and DIPE (5.3%). Proposed interventions produced beneficial effects for reducing cardiovascular risk score. This study emphasizes the importance of lifestyle modification in the prevention and treatment of cardiovascular diseases.

  12. [Syncope and work: role of the occupational physician and global risk stratification].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbic, F; Angaroni, L; Orlandi, M; Costantino, G; Dipaola, E; Borleri, D; Borchini, R; D'Adda, F; Perego, F; Borella, M; Galli, A; Solbiati, M; Scanella, E; Casazza, G; Seghizzi, P; Furlan, R

    2011-01-01

    Safety risk for subjects suffering from syncope while working has not been as yet addressed by occupational medicine. The present study was aimed at evaluating a new developed methodology for job tasks risk stratification in patients with syncope. During a work-shop on syncope and occupational risk, 149 occupational physicians (OP) with about 10 years of clinical experience were asked to fulfil a Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) concerning the doctor's estimated potential damage (D) to the worker and the probability of a damage to occur (P) should syncope take place during the job task. Five job tasks characterized by different risk for safety (1, driving; 2, toxic products handling; 3, job performed closed to hot surfaces o free flames; 4, surgical activity; 5, office job) were identified. OP correctly stratified the risk associated to the different job tasks in patients with syncope. Unexpectedly, task #3 was given a risk similar to that obtained in drivers. This might be of paramount clinical and social importance when patients with syncope have to return to their job tasks.

  13. Alimentary Habits, Physical Activity, and Framingham Global Risk Score in Metabolic Syndrome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soares, Thays Soliman; Piovesan, Carla Haas; Gustavo, Andréia da Silva; Macagnan, Fabrício Edler; Bodanese, Luiz Carlos; Feoli, Ana Maria Pandolfo

    2014-01-01

    Metabolic syndrome is a complex disorder represented by a set of cardiovascular risk factors. A healthy lifestyle is strongly related to improve Quality of Life and interfere positively in the control of risk factors presented in this condition. To evaluate the effect of a program of lifestyle modification on the Framingham General Cardiovascular Risk Profile in subjects diagnosed with metabolic syndrome. A sub-analysis study of a randomized clinical trial controlled blind that lasted three months. Participants were randomized into four groups: dietary intervention + placebo (DIP), dietary intervention + supplementation of omega 3 (fish oil 3 g/day) (DIS3), dietary intervention + placebo + physical activity (DIPE) and dietary intervention + physical activity + supplementation of omega 3 (DIS3PE). The general cardiovascular risk profile of each individual was calculated before and after the intervention. The study included 70 subjects. Evaluating the score between the pre and post intervention yielded a significant value (p < 0.001). We obtained a reduction for intermediate risk in 25.7% of subjects. After intervention, there was a significant reduction (p < 0.01) on cardiovascular age, this being more significant in groups DIP (5.2%) and DIPE (5.3%). Proposed interventions produced beneficial effects for reducing cardiovascular risk score. This study emphasizes the importance of lifestyle modification in the prevention and treatment of cardiovascular diseases

  14. IRSN 2015 opinion survey. The perception of risks and safety by French people. Global results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El Jammal, Marie-Helene; Mur, Emmanuelle; Rollinger, Francois; Schuler, Matthieu; Tchernia, Jean-Francois

    2015-07-01

    Like every year, this report presents and comments the results of an opinion survey on risks, and more particularly on risks related to nuclear and radiological activities. The first part addresses the current concerns of French people (main concerns in the present society, with respect to the environment, and risks related to industrial installations). The second part addresses the opinion on expertise (the role and image of experts, diffusion and sharing of scientific expertise, and who should control a hazardous installation). The third part examines the reaction of people in front of 34 different hazardous situations (risks to which people feel being exposed, confidence people have in authorities to protect them, confidence in information on hazards, hierarchy of the 34 situations according to three different aspects, and relationship with installation acceptability). The fourth part addresses the nuclear domain: expectations related to the control of the nuclear risk, fear of a severe accident, benefits and drawbacks of nuclear energy, expertise and credibility of interveners in the nuclear sector. The fifth part addresses the presence of radon in dwellings (awareness of the risk, measures related to the control of radon in dwellings)

  15. Global risk mapping for major diseases transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samson Leta

    2018-02-01

    Conclusions: With 215 countries/territories potentially suitable for the most important arboviral disease vectors and more than half of these reporting cases, arboviral diseases are indeed a global public health threat. The increasing proportion of reports that include multiple arboviral diseases highlights the expanding range of their common transmission vectors. The shared features of these arboviral diseases should motivate efforts to combine interventions against these diseases.

  16. Developing global climate anomalies suggest potential disease risks for 2006 – 2007

    OpenAIRE

    Tucker Compton J; Small Jennifer; Chretien Jean-Paul; Anyamba Assaf; Linthicum Kenneth J

    2006-01-01

    Abstract Background El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related climate anomalies have been shown to have an impact on infectious disease outbreaks. The Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA/CPC) has recently issued an unscheduled El Niño advisory, indicating that warmer than normal sea surface temperatures across the equatorial eastern Pacific may have pronounced impacts on global tropical precipitation patterns extending into the northern hem...

  17. Retinopathy of prematurity: a global perspective of the epidemics, population of babies at risk and implications for control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilbert, Clare

    2008-02-01

    Globally at least 50,000 children are blind from retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) which is now a significant cause of blindness in many middle income countries in Latin American and Eastern Europe. Retinopathy of prematurity is also being reported from the emerging economies of India and China. The characteristics of babies developing severe disease varies, with babies in middle and low income countries having a much wider range of birth weights and gestational ages than is currently the case in industrialized countries. Rates of disease requiring treatment also tend to be higher in middle and low income countries suggesting that babies are being exposed to risk factors which are, to a large extent, being controlled in industrialised countries. The reasons for this "third epidemic" of ROP are discussed as well as strategies for control, including the need for locally relevant, evidence based criteria which ensure that all babies at risk are examined.

  18. An Interactive Risk Detection Tool to Aid Decision-Making in Global Mangrove Restoration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldberg, L.; Lagomasino, D.

    2017-12-01

    Mangrove ecosystems hold high ecological and economic value in coastal communities worldwide; detecting potential regions of mangrove stress is therefore critical to strategic planning of forest and coastal resources. In order to address the need for a unified risk management system for mangrove loss, a Risk Evaluation for MAngroves Portal (REMaP) was developed to identify the locations and causes of mangrove degradation worldwide, as well as project future areas of stress or loss. Long-term Earth observations from LANDSAT, MODIS, and TRMM were used in identifying regions with low, medium, and high vulnerability. Regions were categorized by vulnerability level based upon disturbance metrics in NDVI, land surface temperature, and precipitation using designated thresholds. Natural risks such as erosion and degradation were also evaluated through an analysis of NDVI time series trends from calendar year 1984 to 2017. Future trends in ecosystem vulnerability and resiliency were modeled using IPCC climate scenarios. Risk maps for anthropogenic-based disturbances such as urbanization and the expansion of agriculture and aquaculture through rice, rubber, shrimp, and oil palm farming were also included. The natural and anthropogenic risk factors evaluated were then aggregated to generate a cumulative estimate for total mangrove vulnerability in each region. This interactive modeling tool can aid decision-making on the regional, national, and international levels on an ongoing basis to continuously identify areas best suited for mangrove restoration measures, assisting governments and local communities in addressing a wide range of Sustainable Development Goals for coastal areas.

  19. IRSN 2017 opinion survey. The perception of risks and safety by French people. Global results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El Jammal, Marie-Helene; Charron, Sylvie; Mur, Emmanuelle; Schuler, Matthieu; Tchernia, Jean-francois

    2017-07-01

    Like every year, this report presents and comments the results of an opinion survey on risks, and more particularly on risks related to nuclear and radiological activities. The first part addresses the current concerns of French people (main concerns in the present society, with respect to the environment, and risks related to industrial installations). The second part addresses the opinion on expertise (the role and image of experts, diffusion and sharing of scientific expertise, and the perception of pluralistic structures). The third part examines the reaction of people in front of 34 different hazardous situations (risks to which people feel being exposed, confidence people have in authorities to protect them, confidence in information on hazards, hierarchy of the 34 situations according to three different aspects, and relationship with installation acceptability). The fourth part addresses the nuclear domain: expectations related to the control of the nuclear risk, benefits and drawbacks of nuclear energy, fear of a severe accident, attention given by French people to nuclear energy, expertise and credibility of interveners in the nuclear sector

  20. IRSN 2016 opinion survey. The perception of risks and safety by French people. Global results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El Jammal, Marie-Helene; Charron, Sylvie; Mur, Emmanuelle; Schuler, Matthieu; Tchernia, Jean-francois

    2016-07-01

    Like every year, this report presents and comments the results of an opinion survey on risks, and more particularly on risks related to nuclear and radiological activities. The first part addresses the current concerns of French people (main concerns in the present society, with respect to the environment, and risks related to industrial installations). The second part addresses the opinion on expertise (the role and image of experts, diffusion and sharing of scientific expertise, and the perception of pluralistic structures). The third part examines the reaction of people in front of 34 different hazardous situations (risks to which people feel being exposed, confidence people have in authorities to protect them, confidence in information on hazards, hierarchy of the 34 situations according to three different aspects, and relationship with installation acceptability). The fourth part addresses the nuclear domain: expectations related to the control of the nuclear risk, fear of a severe accident, benefits and drawbacks of nuclear energy, expertise and credibility of interveners in the nuclear sector, fear of serious nuclear accidents, perception of the two main nuclear accidents: Chernobyl (1986) and Fukushima (2011)

  1. Current medical research funding and frameworks are insufficient to address the health risks of global environmental change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebi, Kristie L; Semenza, Jan C; Rocklöv, Joacim

    2016-11-11

    Three major international agreements signed in 2015 are key milestones for transitioning to more sustainable and resilient societies: the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development; the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction; and the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Together, these agreements underscore the critical importance of understanding and managing the health risks of global changes, to ensure continued population health improvements in the face of significant social and environmental change over this century. BODY: Funding priorities of major health institutions and organizations in the U.S. and Europe do not match research investments with needs to inform implementation of these international agreements. In the U.S., the National Institutes of Health commit 0.025 % of their annual research budget to climate change and health. The European Union Seventh Framework Programme committed 0.08 % of the total budget to climate change and health; the amount committed under Horizon 2020 was 0.04 % of the budget. Two issues apparently contributing to this mismatch are viewing climate change primarily as an environmental problem, and therefore the responsibility of other research streams; and narrowly framing research into managing the health risks of climate variability and change from the perspective of medicine and traditional public health. This reductionist, top-down perspective focuses on proximate, individual level risk factors. While highly successful in reducing disease burdens, this framing is insufficient to protect health and well-being over a century that will be characterized by profound social and environmental changes. International commitments in 2015 underscored the significant challenges societies will face this century from climate change and other global changes. However, the low priority placed on understanding and managing the associated health risks by national and international research

  2. The IRSN 2012 barometer. The opinion on risks and security of the French population. Global results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El Jammal, Marie-Helene; Rollinger, Francois; Mur, Emmanuelle

    2012-01-01

    This report presents and comments the results of a survey during which a sample of the French population has been questioned on their current concerns (what is the most concerning issue in the present society and in the environment, science within concerns), on their opinion on scientific expertise (who should control a risky installation, the role and image of experts, the access to expertise files, the perception of pluralist structures), on their opinion on 33 risk situations (risks to which French people feel exposed, confidence in authorities to protect them, truth of information on hazards, hierarchy of the 33 situations), on their opinion on the nuclear activity and industry (the nuclear risk, the credibility and expertise of interveners), and on the Fukushima accident (perception of the accident, quality of information, expectations on the assessment of nuclear power stations)

  3. Risk-evaluation of Hi-tech Enterprise in the Process of Approaching Global Market

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiang Laisheng; Guo Yajun; Li Zhanfang

    2007-01-01

    In the high technology industry, small and medium sized technology enterprises (SMSTEs) play a pivotal role in advancing the whole industry. To achieve sustainable development, they need to extend their scope of business activities beyond a national view and exploit international market actively to meet international competitions that increase quickly in the form of allocating resources within the scope of the world. However, the SMSTEs are also facing risks associated with themselves during the process of exploiting international market owing to their own restrictions, so what they should do is to consider risk evaluations in exploiting the international market.

  4. The impact of global environmental change on vector-borne disease risk: a modelling study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rachel Lowe, PhD

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: Vector-borne diseases, such as dengue virus, Zika virus, and malaria, are highly sensitive to environmental changes, including variations in climate and land-surface characteristics. The emergence and spread of vector-borne diseases is also exacerbated by anthropogenic activities, such as deforestation, mining, urbanisation, and human mobility, which alter the natural habitats of vectors and increase vector–host interactions. Innovative epidemiological modelling tools can help to understand how environmental conditions interact with socioeconomic risk factors to predict the risk of disease transmission. In recent years, climate-health modelling has benefited from computational advances in fitting complex mathematical models; increasing availability of environmental, socioeconomic, and disease surveillance datasets; and improved ability to understand and model the climate system. Climate forecasts at seasonal time scales tend to improve in quality during El Niño-Southern Oscillation events in certain regions of the tropics. Thus, climate forecasts provide an opportunity to anticipate potential outbreaks of vector-borne diseases from several months to a year in advance. The aim of this study was to develop a framework to incorporate seasonal climate forecasts in predictive disease models to understand the future risk of vector-borne diseases, with a focus on dengue fever in Latin America. Methods: A Bayesian spatiotemporal model framework that quantifies the extent to which environmental and socioeconomic indicators can explain variations in disease risk was designed to disentangle the effects of climate from other risk factors using multi-source data and random effects, which account for unknown and unmeasured sources of spatial, seasonal, and inter-annual variation. The model was used to provide probabilistic predictions of monthly dengue incidence and the probability of exceeding outbreak thresholds, which were established in

  5. Reducing Production Basis Risk through Rainfall Intensity Frequency (RIF) Indexes: Global Sensitivity Analysis' Implication on Policy Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muneepeerakul, Chitsomanus; Huffaker, Ray; Munoz-Carpena, Rafael

    2016-04-01

    The weather index insurance promises financial resilience to farmers struck by harsh weather conditions with swift compensation at affordable premium thanks to its minimal adverse selection and moral hazard. Despite these advantages, the very nature of indexing causes the presence of "production basis risk" that the selected weather indexes and their thresholds do not correspond to actual damages. To reduce basis risk without additional data collection cost, we propose the use of rain intensity and frequency as indexes as it could offer better protection at the lower premium by avoiding basis risk-strike trade-off inherent in the total rainfall index. We present empirical evidences and modeling results that even under the similar cumulative rainfall and temperature environment, yield can significantly differ especially for drought sensitive crops. We further show that deriving the trigger level and payoff function from regression between historical yield and total rainfall data may pose significant basis risk owing to their non-unique relationship in the insured range of rainfall. Lastly, we discuss the design of index insurance in terms of contract specifications based on the results from global sensitivity analysis.

  6. “Hello, HELLO! Anyone there? - on the need to assess the tsunami risk to global submarine telecommunications infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dominey-Howes, D.; Goff, J. R.

    2009-12-01

    National economies are increasingly dependent on the global telecommunications system - and in particular, its submarine cable infrastructure. Submarine cable traffic represents about 30% of global GDP so the cost of losing, or even simply slowing, communications traffic is high. Many natural hazards are capable of damaging and destroying this infrastructure but tsunamis are the most significant threat, particularly in waters >1000 m deep. Submarine cables and their shore-based infrastructure (the anchor points), are at risk from direct and indirect tsunami-related effects. During the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami in India and Indonesia, cables were broken (direct effect) as the tsunami eroded supporting sediments, and were further damaged by floating/submerged objects and intense nearshore currents. Shore-based infrastructure was also directly damaged in India, Indonesia, and the Maldives. The 1929 Grand Banks earthquake generated a submarine landslide and tsunami off Newfoundland which broke 12 submarine telegraph cables. In 2006, an earthquake in Taiwan generated submarine landslides and a tsunami. These landslides caused one of the largest disruptions of modern telecommunications history when nine cables in the Strait of Luzon were broken disabling vital connections between SE Asia and the rest of the world. Although electronic traffic in and out of Australia was slowed, it did not cease because >70% of our traffic is routed via cables that pass through Hawaii. This is extremely significant because Hawaii is an internationally recognised bottleneck or “choke point” in the global telecommunications network. The fact that Hawaii is a choke point is important because it is regularly affected by numerous large magnitude natural hazards. Any damage to the submarine telecommunications infrastructure routed through Hawaii could result in significant impacts on the electronic flow of data and voice traffic, negatively affecting dependent economies such as Australia

  7. Evaluating the impact of climate change on landslide occurrence, hazard, and risk: from global to regional scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gariano, Stefano Luigi; Guzzetti, Fausto

    2017-04-01

    . Where global warming is expected to increase, the frequency and intensity of severe rainfall events, a primary trigger of shallow, rapid-moving landslides that cause many landslide fatalities, an increase in the number of people exposed to landslide risk is to be expected. Furthermore, we defined a group of objective and reproducible methods for the quantitative evaluation of the past and future (expected) variations in landslide occurrence and distribution, and in the impact and risk to the population, as a result of changes in climatic and environmental factors (particularly, land use changes), at regional scale. The methods were tested in a southern Italian region, but they can easily applied in other physiographic and climatic regions, where adequate information is available.

  8. THE EFFECTS OF STOCK OPTION COMPENSATION ONMANAGERIAL RISK TAKING BEHAVIOR AND FIRM FINANCIALPERFORMANCETHE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS FROM ADIFFERENT PERSPECTIVE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guler Aras

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to figure out whether managerial risk taking behaviourand firm financial performance is effected by stock option compensation.Inliterature stock optioncompensationismentionedasa meansto solve agencyproblems. It is analysed how stock option compensation aligns theshareholders’andmanagers’ interestsand its effects on firm financialperformance. Additionally, it isinvestigatedwhether this effecthas a link to theglobal financial crisis which hasobviously related to the managers’extreme riskseeking behaviourespecially in financial sector. Inthis study, 189 firms fromS P index are analysedutilizingthe panel dataanalysismethod between years1998-2009. Additionally, regression method is used to measureeach year. Thedata set is grouped as financial and non financial sector tobetterpresent theeffects of global financial crisis.According to the results of this study, stockoption compensation is positively related to investment magnitudes which aretaken as indicators of risk taking behavior.On the other hand, it is negativelyrelated to firm financial performance.According to the results of yearlycomparison, in financial sector the invesment magnitudes are bigger than the nonfinancial sector just two years before the financial crisis and net cash flow fromthe investing activities is significantly negative when compared with non financialsector.Therefore,it is aimed to findoutthe relation between the extreme riskseeking behaviorbefore the global financial crisisand the incentive compensationstructures.

  9. Inter-rater reliability of the German version of the Nurses' Global Assessment of Suicide Risk scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozel, Bernd; Grieser, Manuela; Abderhalden, Christoph; Cutcliffe, John R

    2016-10-01

    In comparison to the general population, the suicide rates of psychiatric inpatient populations in Germany and Switzerland are very high. An important preventive contribution to the lowering of the suicide rates in mental health care is to ensure that the risk of suicide of psychiatric inpatients is assessed as accurately as possible. While risk-assessment instruments can serve an important function in determining such risk, very few have been translated to German. Therefore, in the present study, we reported on the German version of Nurses' Global Assessment of Suicide Risk (NGASR) scale. After translating the original instrument into German and pretesting the German version, we tested the inter-rater reliability of the instrument. Twelve video case studies were evaluated by 13 raters with the NGASR scale in a 'laboratory' trial. In each case, the observer's agreement was calculated for the single items, the overall scale, the risk levels, and the sum scores. The statistical data analysis was conducted with kappa and AC1 statistics for dichotomous (items, scale) scales. A high-to-very high observers' agreement (AC1: 0.62-1.00, kappa: 0.00-1.00) was determined for 16 items of the German version of the NGASR scale. We conclude that the German version of the NGASR scale is a reliable instrument for evaluating risk factors for suicide. A reliable application in the clinical practise appears to be enhanced by training in the use of the instrument and the right implementation instructions. © 2016 Australian College of Mental Health Nurses Inc.

  10. Increase in Fracture Risk Following Unintentional Weight Loss in Postmenopausal Women: The Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women†

    Science.gov (United States)

    Compston, Juliet E.; Wyman, A; FitzGerald, Gordon; Adachi, Jonathan D.; Chapurlat, Roland D.; Cooper, Cyrus; Díez-Pérez, Adolfo; Gehlbach, Stephen H; Greenspan, Susan L.; Hooven, Frederick H.; LaCroix, Andrea Z.; March, Lyn; Coen Netelenbos, J.; Nieves, Jeri W.; Pfeilschifter, Johannes; Rossini, Maurizio; Roux, Christian; Saag, Kenneth G.; Siris, Ethel S.; Silverman, Stuart; Watts, Nelson B.; Anderson, Frederick A.

    2016-01-01

    Increased fracture risk has been associated with weight loss in postmenopausal women but the time course over which this occurs has not been established. The aim of this study was to examine the effects of unintentional weight loss of ≥10 lb (4.5 kg) in postmenopausal women on fracture risk at multiple sites up to 5 years following weight loss. Using data from the Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW) we analyzed the relationships between self-reported unintentional weight loss of ≥10 lb at baseline, year 2, or year 3 and incident clinical fracture in the years following weight loss. Complete data were available in 40,179 women (mean age ± SD 68 ± 8.3 years). Five-year cumulative fracture rate was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and adjusted hazard ratios for weight loss as a time-varying covariate were calculated from Cox multiple regression models. Unintentional weight loss at baseline was associated with a significantly increased risk of fracture of the clavicle, wrist, spine, rib, hip, and pelvis for up to 5 years following weight loss. Adjusted hazard ratios showed a significant association between unintentional weight loss and fracture of the hip, spine, and clavicle within 1 year of weight loss, and these associations were still present at 5 years. These findings demonstrate increased fracture risk at several sites after unintentional weight loss in postmenopausal women. This increase is seen as early as 1 year following weight loss, emphasizing the need for prompt fracture risk assessment and appropriate management to reduce fracture risk in this population. PMID:26861139

  11. The global burden of oral diseases and risks to oral health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Poul Erik; Bourgeois, Denis; Ogawa, Hiroshi

    2005-01-01

    of preventive oral health care programmes. The important role of sociobehavioural and environmental factors in oral health and disease has been shown in a large number of socioepidemiological surveys. In addition to poor living conditions, the major risk factors relate to unhealthy lifestyles (i.e. poor diet...

  12. Global Self-Worth in Latino Youth: The Role of Acculturation and Acculturation Risk Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kapke, Theresa L.; Gerdes, Alyson C.; Lawton, Kathryn E.

    2017-01-01

    Background: Despite Latino youth being at increased risk of developing mental health problems, they are less likely to receive adequate treatment (Gonzales et al. in "Handbook of U.S. Latino psychology: developmental and community-based perspectives." Sage, Thousand Oaks, pp 115-134, 2009; Romero et al. in "Ethn Health"…

  13. Alimentary habits, physical activity, and Framingham global risk score in metabolic syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soares, Thays Soliman; Piovesan, Carla Haas; Gustavo, Andréia da Silva; Macagnan, Fabrício Edler; Bodanese, Luiz Carlos; Feoli, Ana Maria Pandolfo

    2014-04-01

    Metabolic syndrome is a complex disorder represented by a set of cardiovascular risk factors. A healthy lifestyle is strongly related to improve Quality of Life and interfere positively in the control of risk factors presented in this condition. To evaluate the effect of a program of lifestyle modification on the Framingham General Cardiovascular Risk Profile in subjects diagnosed with metabolic syndrome. A sub-analysis study of a randomized clinical trial controlled blind that lasted three months. Participants were randomized into four groups: dietary intervention + placebo (DIP), dietary intervention + supplementation of omega 3 (fish oil 3 g/day) (DIS3), dietary intervention + placebo + physical activity (DIPE) and dietary intervention + physical activity + supplementation of omega 3 (DIS3PE). The general cardiovascular risk profile of each individual was calculated before and after the intervention. The study included 70 subjects. Evaluating the score between the pre and post intervention yielded a significant value (p study emphasizes the importance of lifestyle modification in the prevention and treatment of cardiovascular diseases.

  14. Globalization of United States Community Colleges and the Associated Reputational Risks: A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giasi, Donna L.

    2017-01-01

    Leaders in four-year, public and private institutions have implemented international branch campuses to potentially increase revenue and promote institutional prestige. Although these efforts have received significant attention, they have not always been successful. Studies have identified the reputational risks often associated with international…

  15. Transmission of shocks across global financial markets : The role of contagion and investors' risk appetite

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gonzalez-Hermosillo Gonzalez, B.M.

    2008-01-01

    This research examines the role of contagion in transmitting shocks across markets. One possible conduit for contagion is shifts in international investors’ risk appetite. The aim of this research is to propose a methodology to address the current gaps in the literature of contagion. The thesis

  16. Globalization, uncertainly and risk Globalización, incertidumbre y riesgo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Pablo Zorrilla

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available A wide analysis and reference about risk as like as the compilation of all his types and forms. A complete information guide about everything with regard to risk and his implications. The risk can be presented like many intangible forms, whether knows, consider and management, this can be reduced or coverage the negative effects and some cases you can present profits. All the types and forms of risk that you can found in this paper: diversiable, fundamental, own, hazard, basis, repayment, country, political, sovereign, transfer, credit, exchange, conversion, economic, interest rate, manufacture, market, commercial, operational, legal and liquidity.Un amplio análisis, y referencia acerca del riesgo, así como, la compilación de todos sus tipos y formas. Una guía completa para informarse sobre todo lo referente al riesgo y sus implicaciones. El riesgo puede presentarse de muchas formas intangibles, si se conoce, considera y gestiona, se puede cubrir o minorizar el efecto negativo y en algunos casos verse beneficiado. Todos los tipos y formas de riesgo que podrá encontrar en este artículo: diversificable, sistemático, fundamental, propio, moral, repago, base, país, político, soberano, transferencia, crédito, tipo de cambio, transacción, conversión, económico, tipo de interés, manufacturado, mercado, comercial, operacional, legal, y liquidez.

  17. Assessing the Global Risk of Establishment of Cydia pomonella (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) using CLIMEX and MaxEnt Niche Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Sunil; Neven, Lisa G; Zhu, Hongyu; Zhang, Runzhi

    2015-08-01

    Accurate assessment of insect pest establishment risk is needed by national plant protection organizations to negotiate international trade of horticultural commodities that can potentially carry the pests and result in inadvertent introductions in the importing countries. We used mechanistic and correlative niche models to quantify and map the global patterns of the potential for establishment of codling moth (Cydia pomonella L.), a major pest of apples, peaches, pears, and other pome and stone fruits, and a quarantine pest in countries where it currently does not occur. The mechanistic model CLIMEX was calibrated using species-specific physiological tolerance thresholds, whereas the correlative model MaxEnt used species occurrences and climatic spatial data. Projected potential distribution from both models conformed well to the current known distribution of codling moth. None of the models predicted suitable environmental conditions in countries located between 20°N and 20°S potentially because of shorter photoperiod, and lack of chilling requirement (Japan where codling moth currently does not occur but where its preferred host species (i.e., apple) is present. Average annual temperature and latitude were the main environmental variables associated with codling moth distribution at global level. The predictive models developed in this study present the global risk of establishment of codling moth, and can be used for monitoring potential introductions of codling moth in different countries and by policy makers and trade negotiators in making science-based decisions. © The Authors 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  18. Benefits and risks of adopting the global code of practice for recreational fisheries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arlinghaus, Robert; Beard, T. Douglas; Cooke, Steven J.; Cowx, Ian G.

    2012-01-01

    Recreational fishing constitutes the dominant or sole use of many fish stocks, particularly in freshwater ecosystems in Western industrialized countries. However, despite their social and economic importance, recreational fisheries are generally guided by local or regional norms and standards, with few comprehensive policy and development frameworks existing across jurisdictions. We argue that adoption of a recently developed Global Code of Practice (CoP) for Recreational Fisheries can provide benefits for moving recreational fisheries toward sustainability on a global scale. The CoP is a voluntary document, specifically framed toward recreational fisheries practices and issues, thereby complementing and extending the United Nation's Code of Conduct for Responsible Fisheries by the Food and Agricultural Organization. The CoP for Recreational Fisheries describes the minimum standards of environmentally friendly, ethically appropriate, and—depending on local situations—socially acceptable recreational fishing and its management. Although many, if not all, of the provisions presented in the CoP are already addressed through national fisheries legislation and state-based fisheries management regulations in North America, adopting a common framework for best practices in recreational fisheries across multiple jurisdictions would further promote their long-term viability in the face of interjurisdictional angler movements and some expanding threats to the activity related to shifting sociopolitical norms.

  19. Potential Bias in Projecting Future Regional Megadrought Risk: Insights From A Global Data-Model Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overpeck, J. T.; Ault, T.; Cole, J. E.; Fasullo, J.; Loope, G. R.; Parsons, L. A.; Stevenson, S.

    2015-12-01

    Megadrought is one of the most significant and costly climate extremes, and one that stakeholders (e.g., water and other resource managers) the world over wish to understand better; in particular, they need estimates of the risk of severe droughts as a function of drought frequency, severity, duration, and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration. In many dry-climate regions of the globe, megadrought is synonymous with multi-decadal drought. However, in other regions, megadrought can be defined as extended drought, mostly not seen in the period of instrumental observations, and that would have large impacts if it were to occur in the future. New and published paleoclimatic observations allow us to understand the spectrum of drought in many regions of the globe; droughts exceeding 50 years have occurred in recent Earth history in southwestern North America, sub-Saharan Africa, the Mediterranean and Australia, whereas shorter megadroughts have occurred in Monsoon Asia, Amazonia and elsewhere. Data-model comparisons for regions with sufficiently long (e.g., 1000-2000 years) records of observed hydroclimatic variability suggest that state-of-the-art models can provide realistic estimates of interannual to decadal drought risk, but underestimate the risk of megadrought. Likely reasons for this shortcoming are the lack of sufficient multi-decadal variability in simulations of the past and future, plus an underappreciated understanding about how temperature variability and land-surface feedbacks interact with hydrological and ecological drought, as well as the roles played by unusually wet hydroclimatic extremes (e.g., ENSO related) in ending droughts of long duration. Paleoclimatic records also provide the opportunity to estimate how much models underestimate megadrought risk as a function of locale, frequency, severity, duration, and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration; they also aid in providing stakeholders with bias-corrected estimates of megadrought risk.

  20. A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Stephen S; Vos, Theo; Flaxman, Abraham D; Danaei, Goodarz; Shibuya, Kenji; Adair-Rohani, Heather; Amann, Markus; Anderson, H Ross; Andrews, Kathryn G; Aryee, Martin; Atkinson, Charles; Bacchus, Loraine J; Bahalim, Adil N; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Balmes, John; Barker-Collo, Suzanne; Baxter, Amanda; Bell, Michelle L; Blore, Jed D; Blyth, Fiona; Bonner, Carissa; Borges, Guilherme; Bourne, Rupert; Boussinesq, Michel; Brauer, Michael; Brooks, Peter; Bruce, Nigel G; Brunekreef, Bert; Bryan-Hancock, Claire; Bucello, Chiara; Buchbinder, Rachelle; Bull, Fiona; Burnett, Richard T; Byers, Tim E; Calabria, Bianca; Carapetis, Jonathan; Carnahan, Emily; Chafe, Zoe; Charlson, Fiona; Chen, Honglei; Chen, Jian Shen; Cheng, Andrew Tai-Ann; Child, Jennifer Christine; Cohen, Aaron; Colson, K Ellicott; Cowie, Benjamin C; Darby, Sarah; Darling, Susan; Davis, Adrian; Degenhardt, Louisa; Dentener, Frank; Des Jarlais, Don C; Devries, Karen; Dherani, Mukesh; Ding, Eric L; Dorsey, E Ray; Driscoll, Tim; Edmond, Karen; Ali, Suad Eltahir; Engell, Rebecca E; Erwin, Patricia J; Fahimi, Saman; Falder, Gail; Farzadfar, Farshad; Ferrari, Alize; Finucane, Mariel M; Flaxman, Seth; Fowkes, Francis Gerry R; Freedman, Greg; Freeman, Michael K; Gakidou, Emmanuela; Ghosh, Santu; Giovannucci, Edward; Gmel, Gerhard; Graham, Kathryn; Grainger, Rebecca; Grant, Bridget; Gunnell, David; Gutierrez, Hialy R; Hall, Wayne; Hoek, Hans W; Hogan, Anthony; Hosgood, H Dean; Hoy, Damian; Hu, Howard; Hubbell, Bryan J; Hutchings, Sally J; Ibeanusi, Sydney E; Jacklyn, Gemma L; Jasrasaria, Rashmi; Jonas, Jost B; Kan, Haidong; Kanis, John A; Kassebaum, Nicholas; Kawakami, Norito; Khang, Young-Ho; Khatibzadeh, Shahab; Khoo, Jon-Paul; Kok, Cindy; Laden, Francine; Lalloo, Ratilal; Lan, Qing; Lathlean, Tim; Leasher, Janet L; Leigh, James; Li, Yang; Lin, John Kent; Lipshultz, Steven E; London, Stephanie; Lozano, Rafael; Lu, Yuan; Mak, Joelle; Malekzadeh, Reza; Mallinger, Leslie; Marcenes, Wagner; March, Lyn; Marks, Robin; Martin, Randall; McGale, Paul; McGrath, John; Mehta, Sumi; Mensah, George A; Merriman, Tony R; Micha, Renata; Michaud, Catherine; Mishra, Vinod; Mohd Hanafiah, Khayriyyah; Mokdad, Ali A; Morawska, Lidia; Mozaffarian, Dariush; Murphy, Tasha; Naghavi, Mohsen; Neal, Bruce; Nelson, Paul K; Nolla, Joan Miquel; Norman, Rosana; Olives, Casey; Omer, Saad B; Orchard, Jessica; Osborne, Richard; Ostro, Bart; Page, Andrew; Pandey, Kiran D; Parry, Charles D H; Passmore, Erin; Patra, Jayadeep; Pearce, Neil; Pelizzari, Pamela M; Petzold, Max; Phillips, Michael R; Pope, Dan; Pope, C Arden; Powles, John; Rao, Mayuree; Razavi, Homie; Rehfuess, Eva A; Rehm, Jürgen T; Ritz, Beate; Rivara, Frederick P; Roberts, Thomas; Robinson, Carolyn; Rodriguez-Portales, Jose A; Romieu, Isabelle; Room, Robin; Rosenfeld, Lisa C; Roy, Ananya; Rushton, Lesley; Salomon, Joshua A; Sampson, Uchechukwu; Sanchez-Riera, Lidia; Sanman, Ella; Sapkota, Amir; Seedat, Soraya; Shi, Peilin; Shield, Kevin; Shivakoti, Rupak; Singh, Gitanjali M; Sleet, David A; Smith, Emma; Smith, Kirk R; Stapelberg, Nicolas J C; Steenland, Kyle; Stöckl, Heidi; Stovner, Lars Jacob; Straif, Kurt; Straney, Lahn; Thurston, George D; Tran, Jimmy H; Van Dingenen, Rita; van Donkelaar, Aaron; Veerman, J Lennert; Vijayakumar, Lakshmi; Weintraub, Robert; Weissman, Myrna M; White, Richard A; Whiteford, Harvey; Wiersma, Steven T; Wilkinson, James D; Williams, Hywel C; Williams, Warwick; Wilson, Nicholas; Woolf, Anthony D; Yip, Paul; Zielinski, Jan M; Lopez, Alan D; Murray, Christopher J L; Ezzati, Majid; AlMazroa, Mohammad A; Memish, Ziad A

    2012-12-15

    Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time. We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden. In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2-7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5-7·0]), and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0-5·9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8-9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6-8·3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4-6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2-10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved

  1. Maternal union instability and childhood mortality risk in the Global South, 2010-14.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeRose, Laurie F; Salazar-Arango, Andrés; Corcuera García, Paúl; Gas-Aixendri, Montserrat; Rivera, Reynaldo

    2017-07-01

    Efforts to improve child survival in lower-income countries typically focus on fundamental factors such as economic resources and infrastructure provision, even though research from post-industrial countries confirms that family instability has important health consequences. We tested the association between maternal union instability and children's mortality risk in Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Asia using children's actual experience of mortality (discrete-time probit hazard models) as well as their experience of untreated morbidity (probit regression). Children of divorced/separated mothers experience compromised survival chances, but children of mothers who have never been in a union generally do not. Among children of partnered women, those whose mothers have experienced prior union transitions have a higher mortality risk. Targeting children of mothers who have experienced union instability-regardless of current union status-may augment ongoing efforts to reduce childhood mortality, especially in Africa and Latin America where union transitions are common.

  2. Rationale and design of INTERSTROKE: a global case-control study of risk factors for stroke

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    O'Donnell, M; Serpault, Damien Xavier; Diener, C

    2010-01-01

    with a first stroke within 72 h of hospital presentation in whom CT or MRI is performed. Proxy respondents are used for cases unable to communicate. Etiological and topographical stroke subtype is documented for all cases. Controls are hospital- and community-based, matched for gender, ethnicity and age (+/-5...... years). A questionnaire (cases and controls) is used to acquire information on known and proposed risk factors for stroke. Cardiovascular (e.g. blood pressure) and anthropometric (e.g. waist-to-hip ratio) measurements are obtained at the time of interview. Nonfasting blood samples and random urine......-income countries is inadequate, where a very large burden of stroke occurs. Accordingly, a similar epidemiological study is required for stroke, to inform effective population-based strategies to reduce the risk of stroke. Methods: INTERSTROKE is an international, multicenter case-control study. Cases are patients...

  3. Analytical solution of a stochastic model of risk spreading with global coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morita, Satoru; Yoshimura, Jin

    2013-11-01

    We study a stochastic matrix model to understand the mechanics of risk spreading (or bet hedging) by dispersion. Up to now, this model has been mostly dealt with numerically, except for the well-mixed case. Here, we present an analytical result that shows that optimal dispersion leads to Zipf's law. Moreover, we found that the arithmetic ensemble average of the total growth rate converges to the geometric one, because the sample size is finite.

  4. IRSN 2014 opinion survey - The perception of risks and security by the French population. Global results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El Jammal, Marie-Helene; Mur, Emmanuelle; Rollinger, Francois; Schuler, Matthieu; Tchernia, Jean-Francois

    2014-06-01

    A first and synthetic part of this report comments the most remarkable results of the opinion survey. It first addresses results related to a context of economic crisis (importance of the economic crisis and unemployment as major concerns for French people, environmental concerns) and then analyzes the different aspects of the nuclear risk, from the accident to nuclear safety: strong fears of a nuclear accident, Fukushima and Chernobyl are immediately present in people's mind, concerns about nuclear are also related to the environment and health, the actual benefit of nuclear is an economic one, nuclear safety is a major challenge on which French people doubt, French people wish a citizen look on nuclear safety, the opinion of French people on nuclear worsened in 2013. Then, this report, illustrated by several graphs, presents and discusses the results of an annual opinion survey on the present concerns of French people (in the present society, for the environment, and as far as science is concerned), the opinion of French people on expertise (about who must control a risky installation, about the role and image of scientific experts, about the diffusion and sharing of scientific expertise, and about the perception of pluralistic structures), on the attitude of French people in front of 33 risk situations (risks to which French people feel exposed to, confidence of French people in authorities to protect them, the truth of information on hazards, the hierarchy of 33 situations according to 3 aspects and their relationship with installation acceptability). The fourth part addresses more particularly the nuclear sector: expectations in terms of nuclear risk management, fear of a serious accident, benefits and drawbacks of nuclear energy, skill and credibility of interveners. Graphs notably present the evolution of opinions with respect to last year or over the past years

  5. Banding the World Together; The Global Growth of Control Banding and Qualitative Occupational Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Zalk, David M; Heussen, Ga Henri

    2011-01-01

    Control Banding (CB) strategies to prevent work-related illness and injury for 2.5 billion workers without access to health and safety professionals has grown exponentially this last decade. CB originates from the pharmaceutical industry to control active pharmaceutical ingredients without a complete toxicological basis and therefore no occupational exposure limits. CB applications have broadened into chemicals in general - including new emerging risks like nanomaterials and recently into erg...

  6. Banding the world together; the global growth of control banding and qualitative occupational risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zalk, David M; Heussen, Ga Henri

    2011-12-01

    Control Banding (CB) strategies to prevent work-related illness and injury for 2.5 billion workers without access to health and safety professionals has grown exponentially this last decade. CB originates from the pharmaceutical industry to control active pharmaceutical ingredients without a complete toxicological basis and therefore no occupational exposure limits. CB applications have broadened into chemicals in general - including new emerging risks like nanomaterials and recently into ergonomics and injury prevention. CB is an action-oriented qualitative risk assessment strategy offering solutions and control measures to users through "toolkits". Chemical CB toolkits are user-friendly approaches used to achieve workplace controls in the absence of firm toxicological and quantitative exposure information. The model (technical) validation of these toolkits is well described, however firm operational analyses (implementation aspects) are lacking. Consequentially, it is often not known if toolkit use leads to successful interventions at individual workplaces. This might lead to virtual safe workplaces without knowing if workers are truly protected. Upcoming international strategies from the World Health Organization Collaborating Centers request assistance in developing and evaluating action-oriented procedures for workplace risk assessment and control. It is expected that to fulfill this strategy's goals, CB approaches will continue its important growth in protecting workers.

  7. Banding the World Together; The Global Growth of Control Banding and Qualitative Occupational Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David M. Zalk

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Control Banding (CB strategies to prevent work-related illness and injury for 2.5 billion workers without access to health and safety professionals has grown exponentially this last decade. CB originates from the pharmaceutical industry to control active pharmaceutical ingredients without a complete toxicological basis and therefore no occupational exposure limits. CB applications have broadened into chemicals in general - including new emerging risks like nanomaterials and recently into ergonomics and injury prevention. CB is an action-oriented qualitative risk assessment strategy offering solutions and control measures to users through “toolkits”. Chemical CB toolkits are user-friendly approaches used to achieve workplace controls in the absence of firm toxicological and quantitative exposure information. The model (technical validation of these toolkits is well described, however firm operational analyses (implementation aspects are lacking. Consequentially, it is often not known if toolkit use leads to successful interventions at individual workplaces. This might lead to virtual safe workplaces without knowing if workers are truly protected. Upcoming international strategies from the World Health Organization Collaborating Centers request assistance in developing and evaluating action-oriented procedures for workplace risk assessment and control. It is expected that to fulfill this strategy’s goals, CB approaches will continue its important growth in protecting workers.

  8. Environmental degradation, global food production, and risk for large-scale migrations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doeoes, B.R.

    1994-01-01

    This paper attempts to estimate to what extent global food production is affected by the ongoing environmental degradation through processes, such as soil erosion, salinization, chemical contamination, ultraviolet radiation, and biotic stress. Estimates have also been made of available opportunities to improve food production efficiency by, e.g., increased use of fertilizers, irrigation, and biotechnology, as well as improved management. Expected losses and gains of agricultural land in competition with urbanization, industrial development, and forests have been taken into account. Although estimated gains in food production deliberately have been overestimated and losses underestimated, calculations indicate that during the next 30-35 years the annual net gain in food production will be significantly lower than the rate of world population growth. An attempt has also been made to identify possible scenarios for large-scale migrations, caused mainly by rapid population growth in combination with insufficient local food production and poverty. 18 refs, 7 figs, 6 tabs

  9. Cryoinsulation Material Development to Mitigate Obsolescence Risk for Global Warming Potential Foams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Protz, Alison; Bruyns, Roland; Nettles, Mindy

    2015-01-01

    Cryoinsulation foams currently being qualified for the Space Launch System (SLS) core stage are nonozone- depleting substances (ODP) and are compliant with current environmental regulations. However, these materials contain the blowing agent HFC-245fa, a hydrofluorocarbon (HFC), which is a Global Warming Potential (GWP) substance. In August 2014, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proposed a policy change to reduce or eliminate certain HFCs, including HFC-245fa, in end-use categories including foam blowing agents beginning in 2017. The policy proposes a limited exception to allow continued use of HFC and HFC-blend foam blowing agents for military or space- and aeronautics-related applications, including rigid polyurethane spray foams, but only until 2022.

  10. Creating a Global Building Inventory for Earthquake Loss Assessment and Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.

    2008-01-01

    Earthquakes have claimed approximately 8 million lives over the last 2,000 years (Dunbar, Lockridge and others, 1992) and fatality rates are likely to continue to rise with increased population and urbanizations of global settlements especially in developing countries. More than 75% of earthquake-related human casualties are caused by the collapse of buildings or structures (Coburn and Spence, 2002). It is disheartening to note that large fractions of the world's population still reside in informal, poorly-constructed & non-engineered dwellings which have high susceptibility to collapse during earthquakes. Moreover, with increasing urbanization half of world's population now lives in urban areas (United Nations, 2001), and half of these urban centers are located in earthquake-prone regions (Bilham, 2004). The poor performance of most building stocks during earthquakes remains a primary societal concern. However, despite this dark history and bleaker future trends, there are no comprehensive global building inventories of sufficient quality and coverage to adequately address and characterize future earthquake losses. Such an inventory is vital both for earthquake loss mitigation and for earthquake disaster response purposes. While the latter purpose is the motivation of this work, we hope that the global building inventory database described herein will find widespread use for other mitigation efforts as well. For a real-time earthquake impact alert system, such as U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER), (Wald, Earle and others, 2006), we seek to rapidly evaluate potential casualties associated with earthquake ground shaking for any region of the world. The casualty estimation is based primarily on (1) rapid estimation of the ground shaking hazard, (2) aggregating the population exposure within different building types, and (3) estimating the casualties from the collapse of vulnerable buildings. Thus, the

  11. Previous Fractures at Multiple Sites Increase the Risk for Subsequent Fractures: The Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gehlbach, Stephen; Saag, Kenneth G.; Adachi, Jonathan D.; Hooven, Fred H.; Flahive, Julie; Boonen, Steven; Chapurlat, Roland D.; Compston, Juliet E.; Cooper, Cyrus; Díez-Perez, Adolfo; Greenspan, Susan L.; LaCroix, Andrea Z.; Netelenbos, J. Coen; Pfeilschifter, Johannes; Rossini, Maurizio; Roux, Christian; Sambrook, Philip N.; Silverman, Stuart; Siris, Ethel S.; Watts, Nelson B.; Lindsay, Robert

    2016-01-01

    Previous fractures of the hip, spine, or wrist are well-recognized predictors of future fracture, but the role of other fracture sites is less clear. We sought to assess the relationship between prior fracture at 10 skeletal locations and incident fracture. The Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW) is an observational cohort study being conducted in 17 physician practices in 10 countries. Women ≥ 55 years answered questionnaires at baseline and at 1 and/or 2 years (fractures in previous year). Of 60,393 women enrolled, follow-up data were available for 51,762. Of these, 17.6%, 4.0%, and 1.6% had suffered 1, 2, or ≥3 fractures since age 45. During the first 2 years of follow-up, 3149 women suffered 3683 incident fractures. Compared with women with no prior fractures, women with 1, 2, or ≥ 3 prior fractures were 1.8-, 3.0-, and 4.8-fold more likely to have any incident fracture; those with ≥3 prior fractures were 9.1-fold more likely to sustain a new vertebral fracture. Nine of 10 prior fracture locations were associated with an incident fracture. The strongest predictors of incident spine and hip fractures were prior spine fracture (hazard ratio 7.3) and hip (hazard ratio 3.5). Prior rib fractures were associated with a 2.3-fold risk of subsequent vertebral fracture, previous upper leg fracture predicted a 2.2-fold increased risk of hip fracture; women with a history of ankle fracture were at 1.8-fold risk of future fracture of a weight-bearing bone. Our findings suggest that a broad range of prior fracture sites are associated with an increased risk of incident fractures, with important implications for clinical assessments and risk model development. PMID:22113888

  12. Risk of early-onset neonatal infection with maternal infection or colonization: a global systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grace J Chan

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Neonatal infections cause a significant proportion of deaths in the first week of life, yet little is known about risk factors and pathways of transmission for early-onset neonatal sepsis globally. We aimed to estimate the risk of neonatal infection (excluding sexually transmitted diseases [STDs] or congenital infections in the first seven days of life among newborns of mothers with bacterial infection or colonization during the intrapartum period.We searched PubMed, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, and the World Health Organization Regional Databases for studies of maternal infection, vertical transmission, and neonatal infection published from January 1, 1960 to March 30, 2013. Studies were included that reported effect measures on the risk of neonatal infection among newborns exposed to maternal infection. Random effects meta-analyses were used to pool data and calculate the odds ratio estimates of risk of infection. Eighty-three studies met the inclusion criteria. Seven studies (8.4% were from high neonatal mortality settings. Considerable heterogeneity existed between studies given the various definitions of laboratory-confirmed and clinical signs of infection, as well as for colonization and risk factors. The odds ratio for neonatal lab-confirmed infection among newborns of mothers with lab-confirmed infection was 6.6 (95% CI 3.9-11.2. Newborns of mothers with colonization had a 9.4 (95% CI 3.1-28.5 times higher odds of lab-confirmed infection than newborns of non-colonized mothers. Newborns of mothers with risk factors for infection (defined as prelabour rupture of membranes [PROM], preterm <37 weeks PROM, and prolonged ROM had a 2.3 (95% CI 1.0-5.4 times higher odds of infection than newborns of mothers without risk factors.Neonatal infection in the first week of life is associated with maternal infection and colonization. High-quality studies, particularly from settings with high neonatal mortality, are needed to

  13. From hypertension control to global cardiovascular risk management: an educational intervention in a cluster-randomised controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mortsiefer, Achim; Meysen, Tobias; Schumacher, Martin; Abholz, Heinz-Harald; Wegscheider, Karl; In der Schmitten, Jürgen

    2015-05-07

    Guidelines on hypertension management recommend adjusting therapeutic efforts in accordance with global cardiovascular risk (CVR) rather than by blood pressure levels alone. However, this paradigm change has not yet arrived in German General Practice. We have evaluated the effect of an educational outreach visit with general practitioners (GPs), encouraging them to consider CVR in treatment decisions for patients with hypertension. Prospective cluster-randomised trial comprising 3443 patients with known hypertension treated by 87 GPs. Practices were randomly assigned to complex (A) or simple (B) intervention. Both groups received a guideline by mail; group A also received complex peer intervention promoting the concept of global CVR. Clinical data were collected at baseline and 6-9 months after intervention. Main outcome was improvement of calculated CVR in the predefined subpopulation of patients with a high CVR (10-year mortality ≥5%), but no manifest cardiovascular disease. Adjusted for baseline the follow-up CVR were 13.1% (95% CI 12.6%-13.6%) (A) and 12.6% (95% CI 12.2%-13.1%) (B) with a group difference (A vs. B) of 0.5% (-0.2%-1.1%), p = 0.179. The group difference was -0.05% in patients of GPs familiar with global CVR and 1.1% in patients of GPs not familiar with with global CVR. However, this effect modification was not significant (p = 0.165). Pooled over groups, the absolute CVR reduction from baseline was 1.0%, p intervention group, and from 35.6 to 46.5% in the simple intervention group, with adjusted follow-up control rates of 46.7% (95% CI 40.4%-53.1%) (A) and 46.9% (95% CI 40.3%-53.5% (B) and an adjusted odds ratio (A vs B) of 0.99 (95% CI 0.68-1.45), p = 0.966. Our complex educational intervention, including a clinical outreach visit, had no significant effect on CVR of patients with known hypertension at high risk compared to a simple postal intervention. ISRCTN44478543 .

  14. Implications of global climate change for the assessment and management of human health risks of chemicals in the natural environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balbus, John M; Boxall, Alistair B A; Fenske, Richard A; McKone, Thomas E; Zeise, Lauren

    2013-01-01

    Global climate change (GCC) is likely to alter the degree of human exposure to pollutants and the response of human populations to these exposures, meaning that risks of pollutants could change in the future. The present study, therefore, explores how GCC might affect the different steps in the pathway from a chemical source in the environment through to impacts on human health and evaluates the implications for existing risk-assessment and management practices. In certain parts of the world, GCC is predicted to increase the level of exposure of many environmental pollutants due to direct and indirect effects on the use patterns and transport and fate of chemicals. Changes in human behavior will also affect how humans come into contact with contaminated air, water, and food. Dietary changes, psychosocial stress, and coexposure to stressors such as high temperatures are likely to increase the vulnerability of humans to chemicals. These changes are likely to have significant implications for current practices for chemical assessment. Assumptions used in current exposure-assessment models may no longer apply, and existing monitoring methods may not be robust enough to detect adverse episodic changes in exposures. Organizations responsible for the assessment and management of health risks of chemicals therefore need to be more proactive and consider the implications of GCC for their procedures and processes. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

  15. Risk, society and environment: the case of cooperative ecological production and the global management over biodiversity and traditional knowledge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guilherme Francisco Waterloo Radomsky

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This article approaches biodiversity and traditional knowledge, having the notion of risk as its background. The data presented come from an ethnographic study carried out among a network of ecological farmers, Ecovida, in Santa Catarina, southern Brazil. Ecovida is an agro-ecological network of farm producers, consumers and intermediaries. The paper aims to show that in the global context of the advent of the intellectual property regime, especially the provisions on cultivars (plant variety and seed breeding, biodiversity and farming traditional knowledge, as well as their modes of plant breeding, suffer a double "erosion": the decrease on the availability of crop varieties; and it creates a uniformity and depleting of local knowledge. The potential standardization of seeds and knowledge entices new risks to both rural production and social sustainability. Our argument is that all these social actors -- that compose the so called ecological network -- in their activities, seeking to carry on the multiplication and variability of seeds and promote the diversity of knowledge, are also creating collective strategies of social resistance vis a vis nature and knowledge modes of control.  As a political outcome of the collective efforts, the network of participatory certification works revealing the risk homogenization and corporate control over crop production.

  16. Global patterns of extinction risk in marine and non-marine systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Thomas J; Mindel, Beth L

    2015-02-16

    Despite increasing concern over the effects of human activities on marine ecosystems, extinction in the sea remains scarce: 19-24 out of a total of >850 recorded extinctions implies a 9-fold lower marine extinction rate compared to non-marine systems. The extent of threats faced by marine systems, and their resilience to them, receive considerable attention, but the detectability of marine extinctions is less well understood. Before its extinction or threat status is recorded, a species must be both taxonomically described and then formally assessed; lower rates of either process for marine species could thus impact patterns of extinction risk, especially as species missing from taxonomic inventories may often be more vulnerable than described species. We combine data on taxonomic description with conservation assessments from the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) to test these possibilities across almost all marine and non-marine eukaryotes. We find that the 9-fold lower rate of recorded extinctions and 4-fold lower rate of ongoing extinction risk across marine species can be explained in part by differences in the proportion of species assessed by the IUCN (3% cf. 4% of non-marine species). Furthermore, once taxonomic knowledge and conservation assessments pass a threshold level, differences in extinction risk between marine and non-marine groups largely disappear. Indeed, across the best-studied taxonomic groups, there is no difference between marine and non-marine systems, with on average between 20% and 25% of species being threatened with extinction, regardless of realm. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Global Risk Evolution and Diversification: a Copula-DCC-GARCH Model Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcelo Brutti Righi

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we estimate a dynamic portfolio composed by the U.S., German, British, Brazilian, Hong Kong and Australian markets, the period considered started on September 2001 and finished in September 2011. We ran the Copula-DCC-GARCH model on the daily returns conditional covariance matrix. The results allow us to conclude that there were changes in portfolio composition, occasioned by modifications in volatility and dependence between markets. The dynamic approach significantly reduced the portfolio risk if compared to the traditional static approach, especially in turbulent periods. Furthermore, we verified that the estimated copula model outperformed the conventional DCC model for the sample studied.

  18. Startupland how three guys risked everything to turn an idea into a global business

    CERN Document Server

    Svane, Mikkel

    2014-01-01

    The real story of what it takes to risk it all and go for broke. Conventional wisdom says most startups need to be in Silicon Valley, started by young engineers around a sexy new idea, and backed by VC funding. But as Mikkel Svane reveals in Startupland, the story of founding Zendesk was anything but conventional. Founded in a Copenhagen loft by three thirty-something friends looking to break free from corporate doldrums, Zendesk Inc. is now one of the hottest enterprise software companies, still rapidly growing with customers in 150 countries. But its success was anything but predestined. Wit

  19. The communication of the risk of coastal erosion in Portugal: a global problem, a local trouble

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo BASTO

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available In the past two decades a set of instruments has been devised by the Portuguese authorities to handle the issue of coastal erosion. We argue that this legal apparatus not only lacks the internal integration necessary for its effectiveness, but it also fails to recognise the ways in which the problem materialises in the everyday life of coastal areas. Through a case study in the village of Furadouro in Western Portugal, we demonstrate how this top-down implementation of policies does not promote a true communication of risks, in the sense that the problem of coastal erosion is not “put in common” across levels of governance.

  20. Risk and vulnerability to global and climate change in South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Mambo, Julia

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available of working group II to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [C.B. Field, V. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir et al. (eds)]. Cambridge, UK and New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.... Qin, Z. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. Averyt et al. (eds)]. Cambridge, UK and New York, NY: Cambridge University Press. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2012. Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance...

  1. Measurement and Internalization of Systemic Risk in a Global Banking Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Xiaobing; Hu, Haibo

    2013-12-01

    The negative externalities from an individual bank failure to the whole system can be huge. One of the key purposes of bank regulation is to internalize the social costs of potential bank failures via capital charges. This study proposes a method to evaluate and allocate the systemic risk to different countries/regions using a Susceptible-Infected-Removable (SIR) type of epidemic spreading model and the Shapley value (SV) in game theory. The paper also explores features of a constructed bank network using real globe-wide banking data.

  2. Global electricity transformation: The critical need for integrated market design and risk management research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hung-po Chao

    2006-01-01

    The past three decades transformed the electricity industry. The essential goals of liberalization have been to lower costs, improve reliability, and stimulate investment and innovations through establishment of competitive electricity markets, while also relying on market mechanisms to provide creative solutions to environmental and security problems. In many instances, these goals have been achieved, but the occurrence of some spectacular market failures have brought into question the whole restructuring effort. This paper reviews recent experiences with market reform and concludes that a significant cause of failure has been the rush to unbundle vertically integrated utilities without sufficient consideration of alternative ways to manage the risk of electricity market restructuring. In particular, there is a critical need for integrated market design and risk management research to improve the process of market transformation by taking a more evolutionary approach to discover a 'Third Way' above vertical integration and full unbundling. Such research can offer a crucial feedback link to the restructuring process by identifying important lessons to be learned from past experience and developing new analytical tools to help introduce more successful market designs for the future. (author)

  3. Transcription instability in high-risk neuroblastoma is associated with a global perturbation of chromatin domains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zanon, Carlo; Tonini, Gian Paolo

    2017-11-01

    Chromosome instability has a pivotal role among the hallmarks of cancer, but its transcriptional counterpart is rarely considered a relevant factor in cell destabilization. To examine transcription instability (TIN), we first devised a metric we named TIN index and used it to evaluate TIN on a dataset containing more than 500 neuroblastoma samples. We found that metastatic tumors from high-risk (HR) patients are characterized by significantly different TIN index values compared to low/intermediate-risk patients. Our results indicate that the TIN index is a good predictor of neuroblastoma patient's outcome, and a related TIN index gene signature (TIN-signature) is also able to predict the neuroblastoma patient's outcome with high confidence. Interestingly, we find that TIN-signature genes have a strong positional association with superenhancers in neuroblastoma tumors. Finally, we show that TIN is linked to chromatin structural domains and interferes with their integrity in HR neuroblastoma patients. This novel approach to gene expression analysis broadens the perspective of genome instability investigations to include functional aspects. © 2017 The Authors. Published by FEBS Press and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. A globally applicable location-specific screening model for assessing the relative risk of pesticide leaching

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Whelan, M.J.; Davenport, E.J.; Smith, B.G.

    2007-01-01

    A screening model of pesticide leaching loss is described which forms part of a multi-criteria risk-based indicator system called PRoMPT (Pesticide Risk Management and Profiling Tool). The leaching model evaluates pesticide fate in soil for any application rate and time of application (including multiple applications), for any land-based location in the world. It considers a generic evaluative environment with fixed dimensions and soil properties. The soil profile is conceptualised as a number of discrete layers. Equilibrium partitioning between adsorbed and dissolved chemical (based on the organic carbon-water partition coefficient [K OC ]) is assumed in each time step, in each layer. Non-leaching losses are described using first order kinetics. Drainage is assumed to be uniform throughout the soil profile but varies temporally. The drainage rate, which can be augmented by evapotranspiration-adjusted irrigation, is derived from long-term mean monthly water balance model calculations performed for 30 arc-minute grid cells across the entire ice-free land surface of the earth. Although, such predictions are approximate, they do capture the seasonality and relative magnitude of drainage and allow the model to be applied anywhere, without the need for extensive data compilation. PRoMPT predictions are shown to be consistent with those made by more sophisticated models (PRZM, PELMO and PEARL) for the FOCUS groundwater scenarios

  5. A globally applicable location-specific screening model for assessing the relative risk of pesticide leaching

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Whelan, M.J. [Unilever Safety and Environmental Assurance Centre, Colworth House, Sharnbrook, Bedfordshire, MK44 1LQ (United Kingdom)]. E-mail: mick.whelan@unilever.com; Davenport, E.J. [Unilever Safety and Environmental Assurance Centre, Colworth House, Sharnbrook, Bedfordshire, MK44 1LQ (United Kingdom); Smith, B.G. [Unilever Sustainable Agriculture Team, Colworth House, Sharnbrook, Bedfordshire, MK44 1LQ (United Kingdom)

    2007-05-15

    A screening model of pesticide leaching loss is described which forms part of a multi-criteria risk-based indicator system called PRoMPT (Pesticide Risk Management and Profiling Tool). The leaching model evaluates pesticide fate in soil for any application rate and time of application (including multiple applications), for any land-based location in the world. It considers a generic evaluative environment with fixed dimensions and soil properties. The soil profile is conceptualised as a number of discrete layers. Equilibrium partitioning between adsorbed and dissolved chemical (based on the organic carbon-water partition coefficient [K {sub OC}]) is assumed in each time step, in each layer. Non-leaching losses are described using first order kinetics. Drainage is assumed to be uniform throughout the soil profile but varies temporally. The drainage rate, which can be augmented by evapotranspiration-adjusted irrigation, is derived from long-term mean monthly water balance model calculations performed for 30 arc-minute grid cells across the entire ice-free land surface of the earth. Although, such predictions are approximate, they do capture the seasonality and relative magnitude of drainage and allow the model to be applied anywhere, without the need for extensive data compilation. PRoMPT predictions are shown to be consistent with those made by more sophisticated models (PRZM, PELMO and PEARL) for the FOCUS groundwater scenarios.

  6. Uncertainty analysis in estimating Japanese ingestion of global fallout Cs-137 using health risk evaluation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimada, Yoko; Morisawa, Shinsuke

    1998-01-01

    Most of model estimation of the environmental contamination includes some uncertainty associated with the parameter uncertainty in the model. In this study, the uncertainty was analyzed in a model for evaluating the ingestion of radionuclide caused by the long-term global low-level radioactive contamination by using various uncertainty analysis methods: the percentile estimate, the robustness analysis and the fuzzy estimate. The model is mainly composed of five sub-models, which include their own uncertainty; we also analyzed the uncertainty. The major findings obtained in this study include that the possibility of the discrepancy between predicted value by the model simulation and the observed data is less than 10%; the uncertainty of the predicted value is higher before 1950 and after 1980; the uncertainty of the predicted value can be reduced by decreasing the uncertainty of some environmental parameters in the model; the reliability of the model can definitively depend on the following environmental factors: direct foliar absorption coefficient, transfer factor of radionuclide from stratosphere down to troposphere, residual rate by food processing and cooking, transfer factor of radionuclide in ocean and sedimentation in ocean. (author)

  7. Experience-Based and Description-Based Perceptions of Long-Term Risk. Why Global Warming does not Scare us (Yet)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weber, E.U.

    2006-01-01

    It should come as no surprise that the governments and citizenries of many countries show little concern about climate change and its consequences. Behavioral decision research over the last 30 years provides a series of lessons about the importance of affect in perceptions of risk and in decisions to take actions that reduce or manage perceived risks. Evidence from a range of domains suggests that worry drives risk management decisions. When people fail to be alarmed about a risk or hazard, they do not take precautions. Recent personal experience strongly influences the evaluation of a risky option. Low-probability events generate less concern than their probability warrants on average, but more concern than they deserve in those rare instances when they do occur. Personal experience with noticeable and serious consequences of global warming is still rare in many regions of the world. When people base their decisions on statistical descriptions about a hazard provided by others, characteristics of the hazard identified as psychological risk dimensions predict differences in alarm or worry across different classes of risk. The time-delayed, abstract, and often statistical nature of the risks of global warming does not evoke strong visceral reactions. These results suggest that we should find ways to evoke visceral reactions towards the risk of global warming, perhaps by simulations of its concrete future consequences for people's home or other regions they visit or value. Increased concern about global warming needs to solicited carefully, however, to prevent a decrease in concern about other relevant risks. The generation of worry or concern about global warming may be a necessary but not sufficient condition for desirable or appropriate protective or mitigating behavior on part of the general public

  8. Assessment of global and local region-based bilateral mammographic feature asymmetry to predict short-term breast cancer risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yane; Fan, Ming; Cheng, Hu; Zhang, Peng; Zheng, Bin; Li, Lihua

    2018-01-01

    This study aims to develop and test a new imaging marker-based short-term breast cancer risk prediction model. An age-matched dataset of 566 screening mammography cases was used. All ‘prior’ images acquired in the two screening series were negative, while in the ‘current’ screening images, 283 cases were positive for cancer and 283 cases remained negative. For each case, two bilateral cranio-caudal view mammograms acquired from the ‘prior’ negative screenings were selected and processed by a computer-aided image processing scheme, which segmented the entire breast area into nine strip-based local regions, extracted the element regions using difference of Gaussian filters, and computed both global- and local-based bilateral asymmetrical image features. An initial feature pool included 190 features related to the spatial distribution and structural similarity of grayscale values, as well as of the magnitude and phase responses of multidirectional Gabor filters. Next, a short-term breast cancer risk prediction model based on a generalized linear model was built using an embedded stepwise regression analysis method to select features and a leave-one-case-out cross-validation method to predict the likelihood of each woman having image-detectable cancer in the next sequential mammography screening. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values significantly increased from 0.5863  ±  0.0237 to 0.6870  ±  0.0220 when the model trained by the image features extracted from the global regions and by the features extracted from both the global and the matched local regions (p  =  0.0001). The odds ratio values monotonically increased from 1.00-8.11 with a significantly increasing trend in slope (p  =  0.0028) as the model-generated risk score increased. In addition, the AUC values were 0.6555  ±  0.0437, 0.6958  ±  0.0290, and 0.7054  ±  0.0529 for the three age groups of 37

  9. Increasing Potential Risk of a Global Aquatic Invader in Europe in Contrast to Other Continents under Future Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xuan; Guo, Zhongwei; Ke, Zunwei; Wang, Supen; Li, Yiming

    2011-01-01

    Background Anthropogenically-induced climate change can alter the current climatic habitat of non-native species and can have complex effects on potentially invasive species. Predictions of the potential distributions of invasive species under climate change will provide critical information for future conservation and management strategies. Aquatic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to invasive species and climate change, but the effect of climate change on invasive species distributions has been rather neglected, especially for notorious global invaders. Methodology/Principal Findings We used ecological niche models (ENMs) to assess the risks and opportunities that climate change presents for the red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii), which is a worldwide aquatic invasive species. Linking the factors of climate, topography, habitat and human influence, we developed predictive models incorporating both native and non-native distribution data of the crayfish to identify present areas of potential distribution and project the effects of future climate change based on a consensus-forecast approach combining the CCCMA and HADCM3 climate models under two emission scenarios (A2a and B2a) by 2050. The minimum temperature from the coldest month, the human footprint and precipitation of the driest quarter contributed most to the species distribution models. Under both the A2a and B2a scenarios, P. clarkii shifted to higher latitudes in continents of both the northern and southern hemispheres. However, the effect of climate change varied considerately among continents with an expanding potential in Europe and contracting changes in others. Conclusions/Significance Our findings are the first to predict the impact of climate change on the future distribution of a globally invasive aquatic species. We confirmed the complexities of the likely effects of climate change on the potential distribution of globally invasive species, and it is extremely important to develop

  10. Radiation accidents with global consequences for the population. Problems of risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasilev, G.; Doncheva, B.; Stoilova, S.; Miloslavov, V.; Tsenova, T.; Novkirishki, V.

    1987-01-01

    The theoretical problems concerning the delayed impacts as a result of considerable radiation accidents are discussed. The attention is paid to the maximum individual doses which are relatively low but many people are affected. In these cases, the risk evaluation is based on the cancerogenesis, genetic and teratogenetic consequences among the concerned population. The main equation of the linear threshold-free model 'dose effect' is subjected to analysis. Considering the real prognostic importance of this equation the following recommendations are made: further observation on epidemic diseases; investigation of teratogenetic consequences in connection with the radiation doses obtained during the antenatal development; radiation-hygienic standardization of the oral absorbtion of radionuclides for short and long periods of time; effective equivalent dose determination according to the irradiated organ or tissue (mammary glands, lungs, red marrow, gonads, skin); necessity of national system for in time announcement of radiation accidents, as well as suitable control of the internal and the external irradiation

  11. Failing States as Epidemiologic Risk Zones: Implications for Global Health Security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirschfeld, Katherine

    Failed states commonly experience health and mortality crises that include outbreaks of infectious disease, violent conflict, reductions in life expectancy, and increased infant and maternal mortality. This article draws from recent research in political science, security studies, and international relations to explore how the process of state failure generates health declines and outbreaks of infectious disease. The key innovation of this model is a revised definition of "the state" as a geographically dynamic rather than static political space. This makes it easier to understand how phases of territorial contraction, collapse, and regeneration interrupt public health programs, destabilize the natural environment, reduce human security, and increase risks of epidemic infectious disease and other humanitarian crises. Better understanding of these dynamics will help international health agencies predict and prepare for future health and mortality crises created by failing states.

  12. International negotiation methods on climatic risks, the limits of global incentives: Natural gas example

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hourcade, J.C.; Journe, V.

    1992-01-01

    The discussion on economic instruments for coordinating an international strategy for climatic risks prevention does not take sufficiently into account the importance of the relevant scientific controversies. These ones determine strongly the negotiation process for the settlement of such a system. We illustrate this point with the simple case of the natural gas whose superiority in terms of emission contents compared to the other fossil fuels, could be contested in case of too important CH 4 releases. We show that the negotiation process cannot come to a positive end if the incentive system relies only on the price signal. This process can converge only if one thinks about the combination of various tools, namely technological norms and ad hoc funds for the renewal of transmission and distribution networks combined with tax systems. 17 refs., 6 tabs

  13. Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) and International Space Station (ISS) Coordination for CubeSat Deployments to Minimize Collision Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pawloski, James H.; Aviles, Jorge; Myers, Ralph; Parris, Joshua; Corley, Bryan; Hehn, Garrett; Pascucci, Joseph

    2016-01-01

    The Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (GPM) is a joint U.S. and Japan mission to observe global precipitation, extending the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), which was launched by H-IIA from Tanegashima in Japan on February 28TH, 2014 directly into its 407km operational orbit. The International Space Station (ISS) is an international human research facility operated jointly by Russia and the USA from NASA's Johnson Space Center (JSC) in Houston Texas. Mission priorities lowered the operating altitude of ISS from 415km to 400km in early 2105, effectively placing both vehicles into the same orbital regime. The ISS has begun a program of deployments of cost effective CubeSats from the ISS that allow testing and validation of new technologies. With a major new asset flying at the same effective altitude as the ISS, CubeSat deployments became a serious threat to GPM and therefore a significant indirect threat to the ISS. This paper describes the specific problem of collision threat to GPM and risk to ISS CubeSat deployment and the process that was implemented to keep both missions safe from collision and maximize their project goals.

  14. Alcohol as a Risk Factor for Cancer: Existing Evidence in a Global Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nina Roswall

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the present review is to give an overview of the association between alcohol intake and the risk of developing cancer. Two large-scale expert reports; the World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF/American Institute of Cancer Research (AICR report from 2007, including its continuous update project, and the International Agency for Research of Cancer (IARC monograph from 2012 have extensively reviewed this association in the last decade. We summarize and compare their findings, as well as relate these to the public health impact, with a particular focus on region-specific drinking patterns and disease tendencies. Our findings show that alcohol intake is strongly linked to the risk of developing cancers of the oral cavity, pharynx, larynx, oesophagus, colorectum (in men, and female breast. The two expert reports diverge on the evidence for an association with liver cancer and colorectal cancer in women, which the IARC grades as convincing, but the WCRF/AICR as probable. Despite these discrepancies, there does, however, not seem to be any doubt, that the Population Attributable Fraction of alcohol in relation to cancer is large. As alcohol intake varies largely worldwide, so does, however, also the Population Attributable Fractions, ranging from 10% in Europe to almost 0% in countries where alcohol use is banned. Given the World Health Organization’s prediction, that alcohol intake is increasing, especially in low- and middle-income countries, and steadily high in high-income countries, the need for preventive efforts to curb the number of alcohol-related cancers seems growing, as well as the need for taking a region- and gender-specific approach in both future campaigns as well as future research. The review acknowledges the potential beneficial effects of small doses of alcohol in relation to ischaemic heart disease, but a discussion of this lies without the scope of the present study.

  15. The risk of global financial markets: The case of China in a developing country

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philemon Nji Kum

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Globalization has forced many countries to rely on one another for products and services which they are unable to source locally. More so, trade is used as the channel to procure those. South Africa and China share very close relations which are boosted by South Africa’s neo-liberal policy, and its membership of the BRICS bloc. Often, this relationship has been subjected to different interpretations leading to the inability to reach a consensus on South Africa’s intention and exact benefits from neo-liberalization and membership of BRICS bloc. On this basis, we affirm that a notable gap exists in scholarly literature which has not provided the full-fledged understanding of the impact of Chinese manufactured goods into South Africa. We draw from the concepts of protectionism and free trade to expatiate the concerns raised by many with respect to the nature and benefits of the relationship. The paper relied extensively on secondary sources of data from which the authors then analyzed, interpreted and drew conclusions to provide a contextual explanation of the phenomenon of Chinese invasion of South African market. This method was useful for two reasons; namely its capacity to generate new insights and secondly, access to comparative studies. While the results show that South African clothing firms are increasingly shutting down because of lower prices from international competitors (especially China, and also due to structural issues of the present South African economy, we are equally aware of the extensive pressure from interest groups for the South African government to protect major local industries such as steel and textile. We argue anyway that the South African government is playing its cards carefully to avoid a backlash, especially considering its position within the BRICS bloc.

  16. Incorporating global warming risks in power sector planning: A case study of the New England region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krause, F.; Busch, J.; Koomey, J.

    1992-11-01

    Growing international concern over the threat of global climate change has led to proposals to buy insurance against this threat by reducing emissions of carbon (short for carbon dioxide) and other greenhouse gases below current levels. Concern over these and other, non-climatic environmental effects of electricity generation has led a number of states to adopt or explore new mechanisms for incorporating environmental externalities in utility resource planning. For example, the New York and Massachusetts utility commissions have adopted monetized surcharges (or adders) to induce emission reductions of federally regulated air pollutants (notably, SO 2 , NO x , and particulates) beyond federally mandated levels. These regulations also include preliminary estimates of the cost of reducing carbon emissions, for which no federal regulations exist at this time. Within New England, regulators and utilities have also held several workshops and meetings to discuss alternative methods of incorporating externalities as well as the feasibility of regional approaches. This study examines the potential for reduced carbon emissions in the New England power sector as well as the cost and rate impacts of two policy approaches: environmental externality surcharges and a target- based approach. We analyze the following questions: Does New England have sufficient low-carbon resources to achieve significant reductions (10% to 20% below current levels) in fossil carbon emissions in its utility sector? What reductions could be achieved at a maximum? What is the expected cost of carbon reductions as a function of the reduction goal? How would carbon reduction strategies affect electricity rates? How effective are environmental externality cost surcharges as an instrument in bringing about carbon reductions? To what extent could the minimization of total electricity costs alone result in carbon reductions relative to conventional resource plans?

  17. The contribution of the Global Change Observatory Central Asia to seismic hazard and risk assessment in the Central Asian region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parolai, S.; Bindi, D.; Haberland, C. A.; Pittore, M.; Pilz, M.; Rosenau, M.; Schurr, B.; Wieland, M.; Yuan, X.

    2012-12-01

    Central Asia has one of the world's highest levels of earthquake hazard, owing to its exceptionally high deformation rates. Moreover, vulnerability to natural disasters in general is increasing, due to rising populations and a growing dependence on complex lifelines and technology. Therefore, there is an urgent need to undertake seismic hazard and risk assessment in this region, while at the same time improving upon existing methodologies, including the consideration of temporal variability in the seismic hazard, and in structural and social vulnerability. Over the last few years, the German Research Center for Geosciences (GFZ), in collaboration with local partners, has initiated a number of scientific activities within the framework of the Global Change Observatory Central Asia (GCO-CA). The work is divided into projects with specific concerns: - The installation and maintenance of the Central-Asian Real-time Earthquake MOnitoring Network (CAREMON) and the setup of a permanent wireless mesh network for structural health monitoring in Bishkek. - The TIPAGE and TIPTIMON projects focus on the geodynamics of the Tien-Shan, Pamir and Hindu Kush region, the deepest and most active intra-continental subduction zone in the world. The work covers time scales from millions of years to short-term snapshots based on geophysical measurements of seismotectonic activity and of the physical properties of the crust and upper mantle, as well as their coupling with other surface processes (e.g., landslides). - Existing risk analysis methods assume time-independent earthquake hazard and risk, although temporal changes are likely to occur due to, for example, co- and post-seismic changes in the regional stress field. We therefore aim to develop systematic time-dependent hazard and risk analysis methods in order to undertake the temporal quantification of earthquake activity (PROGRESS). - To improve seismic hazard assessment for better loss estimation, detailed site effects studies

  18. The effect of the subprime crisis on the credit risk in global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sangwook; Kim, Min Jae; Lee, Sun Young; Kim, Soo Yong; Ban, Joon Hwa

    2013-05-01

    Credit default swap (CDS) has become one of the most actively traded credit derivatives, and its importance in finance markets has increased after the subprime crisis. In this study, we analyzed the correlation structure of credit risks embedded in CDS and the influence of the subprime crisis on this topological space. We found that the correlation was stronger in the cluster constructed according to the location of the CDS reference companies than in the one constructed according to their industries. The correlation both within a given cluster and between different clusters became significantly stronger after the subprime crisis. The causality test shows that the lead lag effect between the portfolios (into which reference companies are grouped by the continent where each of them is located) is reversed in direction because the portion of non-investable and investable reference companies in each portfolio has changed since then. The effect of a single impulse has increased and the response time relaxation has become prolonged after the crisis as well.

  19. European extra-tropical storm damage risk from a multi-model ensemble of dynamically-downscaled global climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haylock, M. R.

    2011-10-01

    Uncertainty in the return levels of insured loss from European wind storms was quantified using storms derived from twenty-two 25 km regional climate model runs driven by either the ERA40 reanalyses or one of four coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models. Storms were identified using a model-dependent storm severity index based on daily maximum 10 m wind speed. The wind speed from each model was calibrated to a set of 7 km historical storm wind fields using the 70 storms with the highest severity index in the period 1961-2000, employing a two stage calibration methodology. First, the 25 km daily maximum wind speed was downscaled to the 7 km historical model grid using the 7 km surface roughness length and orography, also adopting an empirical gust parameterisation. Secondly, downscaled wind gusts were statistically scaled to the historical storms to match the geographically-dependent cumulative distribution function of wind gust speed. The calibrated wind fields were run through an operational catastrophe reinsurance risk model to determine the return level of loss to a European population density-derived property portfolio. The risk model produced a 50-yr return level of loss of between 0.025% and 0.056% of the total insured value of the portfolio.

  20. Global long-range transport and lung cancer risk from polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons shielded by coatings of organic aerosol

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrivastava, Manish; Lou, Silja; Zelenyuk, Alla; Easter, Richard C.; Corley, Richard A.; Thrall, Brian D.; Rasch, Philip J.; Fast, Jerome D.; Massey Simonich, Staci L.; Shen, Huizhong; Tao, Shu

    2017-02-01

    Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) have toxic impacts on humans and ecosystems. One of the most carcinogenic PAHs, benzo(a)pyrene (BaP), is efficiently bound to and transported with atmospheric particles. Laboratory measurements show that particle-bound BaP degrades in a few hours by heterogeneous reaction with ozone, yet field observations indicate BaP persists much longer in the atmosphere, and some previous chemical transport modeling studies have ignored heterogeneous oxidation of BaP to bring model predictions into better agreement with field observations. We attribute this unexplained discrepancy to the shielding of BaP from oxidation by coatings of viscous organic aerosol (OA). Accounting for this OA viscosity-dependent shielding, which varies with temperature and humidity, in a global climate/chemistry model brings model predictions into much better agreement with BaP measurements, and demonstrates stronger long-range transport, greater deposition fluxes, and substantially elevated lung cancer risk from PAHs. Model results indicate that the OA coating is more effective in shielding BaP in the middle/high latitudes compared with the tropics because of differences in OA properties (semisolid when cool/dry vs. liquid-like when warm/humid). Faster chemical degradation of BaP in the tropics leads to higher concentrations of BaP oxidation products over the tropics compared with higher latitudes. This study has profound implications demonstrating that OA strongly modulates the atmospheric persistence of PAHs and their cancer risks.

  1. Risk factors of future smoking among Thai youth: a secondary analysis of the Thai Global Youth Tobacco Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Gyeongsil; Lee, Joann; Lee, Sungkyu

    2015-03-01

    The study aimed to identify the risk factors for future smoking among Thai youth aged 13 to 15 years (seventh to ninth grade). Data from the nationally representative 2005 Thai Global Youth Tobacco Survey (n = 15 774) were analyzed using descriptive statistics and logistic regression. Among nonsmoking Thai youth, boys were much more likely to have intention of future smoking (odds ratio [OR] = 0.56, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.37-0.84). Younger youth were more likely to be cigarette smokers in the future (OR = 0.70, 95% CI = 0.56-0.88). Youth having the intention of smoking from a friend's cigarette offer were 5.29 times more likely to have intention of future smoking, compared with those who did not (95% CI = 3.75-7.46). Understanding and targeting youth at higher risk for future smoking can provide for a lowering of the youth smoking rate in Thailand and contribute to the country's continued efforts in effective youth tobacco control. © 2013 APJPH.

  2. European extra-tropical storm damage risk from a multi-model ensemble of dynamically-downscaled global climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. R. Haylock

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Uncertainty in the return levels of insured loss from European wind storms was quantified using storms derived from twenty-two 25 km regional climate model runs driven by either the ERA40 reanalyses or one of four coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models. Storms were identified using a model-dependent storm severity index based on daily maximum 10 m wind speed. The wind speed from each model was calibrated to a set of 7 km historical storm wind fields using the 70 storms with the highest severity index in the period 1961–2000, employing a two stage calibration methodology. First, the 25 km daily maximum wind speed was downscaled to the 7 km historical model grid using the 7 km surface roughness length and orography, also adopting an empirical gust parameterisation. Secondly, downscaled wind gusts were statistically scaled to the historical storms to match the geographically-dependent cumulative distribution function of wind gust speed.

    The calibrated wind fields were run through an operational catastrophe reinsurance risk model to determine the return level of loss to a European population density-derived property portfolio. The risk model produced a 50-yr return level of loss of between 0.025% and 0.056% of the total insured value of the portfolio.

  3. Use of Subjective Global Assessment, Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment and Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 to evaluate the nutritional status of non-critically ill patients on parenteral nutrition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badia-Tahull, M B; Cobo-Sacristán, S; Leiva-Badosa, E; Miquel-Zurita, M E; Méndez-Cabalerio, N; Jódar-Masanés, R; Llop-Talaverón, J

    2014-02-01

    To evaluate the nutritional status of non-critically ill digestive surgery patients at the moment of parenteral nutrition initiation using three different nutritional test tools and to study their correlation. To study the association between the tests and the clinical and laboratory parameters used in the follow-up of PN treatment. Prospective study over 4 months. Anthropometric and clinical variables were recorded. Results of Subjective Global Assessment; Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment; and Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 were compared applying kappa test. Relationship between the clinical and laboratory parameters with Subjective Global Assessment was studied by multinominal regression and with the other two tests by multiple linear regression models. Age and sex were included as adjustment variables. Malnutrition in 45 studied patients varied from 51% to 57%. Subjective Global Assessment correlated well with Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment and Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 (κ = 0531 p = 0.000). The test with the greatest correlation with the clinical and analytical variables was the Nutritional Risk Screening 2002. Worse nutritional state in this test was associated with worse results in albumin (B = -0.087; CI = -0.169/-0.005], prealbumin (B = -0.005; CI = [-0.011/-0.001]), C-reactive protein (B = 0.006;CI = [0.001/ 0.011]) and leukocytes (B = 0.134; CI = [0.031/0.237]) at the en of parenteral nutrition treatment. Half of the digestive surgery patients were at malnutritional risk at the moment of initiating parenteral nutrition. Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 was the test with best association with the parameters used in the clinical follow-up of parenteral nutrition treated patients. Copyright AULA MEDICA EDICIONES 2014. Published by AULA MEDICA. All rights reserved.

  4. Natural Time, Nowcasting and the Physics of Earthquakes: Estimation of Seismic Risk to Global Megacities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, John B.; Luginbuhl, Molly; Giguere, Alexis; Turcotte, Donald L.

    2018-02-01

    Natural Time ("NT") refers to the concept of using small earthquake counts, for example of M > 3 events, to mark the intervals between large earthquakes, for example M > 6 events. The term was first used by Varotsos et al. (2005) and later by Holliday et al. (2006) in their studies of earthquakes. In this paper, we discuss ideas and applications arising from the use of NT to understand earthquake dynamics, in particular by use of the idea of nowcasting. Nowcasting differs from forecasting, in that the goal of nowcasting is to estimate the current state of the system, rather than the probability of a future event. Rather than focus on an individual earthquake faults, we focus on a defined local geographic region surrounding a particular location. This local region is considered to be embedded in a larger regional setting from which we accumulate the relevant statistics. We apply the nowcasting idea to the practical development of methods to estimate the current state of risk for dozens of the world's seismically exposed megacities, defined as cities having populations of over 1 million persons. We compute a ranking of these cities based on their current nowcast value, and discuss the advantages and limitations of this approach. We note explicitly that the nowcast method is not a model, in that there are no free parameters to be fit to data. Rather, the method is simply a presentation of statistical data, which the user can interpret. Among other results, we find, for example, that the current nowcast ranking of the Los Angeles region is comparable to its ranking just prior to the January 17, 1994 Northridge earthquake.

  5. Racial and ethnic disparities in the impact of obesity on breast cancer risk and survival: a global perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bandera, Elisa V; Maskarinec, Gertraud; Romieu, Isabelle; John, Esther M

    2015-11-01

    Obesity is a global concern, affecting both developed and developing countries. Although there are large variations in obesity and breast cancer rates worldwide and across racial/ethnic groups, most studies evaluating the impact of obesity on breast cancer risk and survival have been conducted in non-Hispanic white women in the United States or Europe. Given the known racial/ethnic differences in tumor hormone receptor subtype distribution, obesity prevalence, and risk factor profiles, we reviewed published data for women of African, Hispanic, and Asian ancestry in the United States and their countries of origin. Although the data are limited, current evidence suggests a stronger adverse effect of obesity on breast cancer risk and survival in women of Asian ancestry. For African Americans and Hispanics, the strength of the associations appears to be more comparable to that of non-Hispanic whites, particularly when accounting for subtype and menopausal status. Central obesity seems to have a stronger impact in African-American women than general adiposity as measured by body mass index. International data from countries undergoing economic transition offer a unique opportunity to evaluate the impact of rapid weight gain on breast cancer. Such studies should take into account genetic ancestry, which may help elucidate differences in associations between ethnically admixed populations. Overall, additional large studies that use a variety of adiposity measures are needed, because the current evidence is based on few studies, most with limited statistical power. Future investigations of obesity biomarkers will be useful to understand possible racial/ethnic biological differences underlying the complex association between obesity and breast cancer development and progression. © 2015 American Society for Nutrition.

  6. Geology for Global Development: Training young geoscientists to communicate and do effective disaster risk reduction in the developing world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gill, J. C.

    2012-04-01

    Geoscientists have a crucial role to play in improving disaster risk reduction and supporting communities to build resilience and reduce vulnerability. Across the world millions live in severe poverty, without access to many of the basic needs that are often taken for granted - a clean water supply, a reliable food source, safe shelter and suitable infrastructure. This lack of basic needs results in communities being particularly vulnerable to devastating natural hazards, such as floods, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and landslides. Here we discuss two major gaps which can limit the engagement of geoscience students and recent graduates in the serious debates surrounding resilience and effective disaster risk reduction: (i) Geoscience undergraduate and postgraduate courses rarely give students the opportunity to engage with issues such as vulnerability, sustainability, knowledge exchange and cross-cultural communication. (ii) There are very few opportunities for geoscience students to gain experience in this sector through UK or overseas placements. Geology for Global Development (GfGD), established in 2011, is starting to work with UK students and recent graduates to fill these gaps. GfGD aims to inspire and engage young geoscientists, supporting them to apply their interdisciplinary knowledge and skills to generate solutions and resources which support NGOs, empower communities and help build resilience to natural hazards. This is being and will be done through: (i) active university groups hosting seminars and discussion groups; (ii) blog articles; (iii) opportunities to contribute to technical papers; (iv) workshops and conferences; and (v) UK and overseas placements. GfGD seeks to play a key role in the training and development of geoscience graduates with the necessary 'soft-skills' and opportunities to make an important contribution to improving disaster risk reduction, fighting poverty and improving people's lives.

  7. GLOBAL ELECTROMAGNETIC RADIATION POLLUTION: RISK ASSESSMENT FROM FIELD MEASUREMENTS AND ANIMAL EXPERIMENTS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fragkopoulou, A. F.; Margaritis, L. H.

    2009-12-01

    The extended use of wireless technology throughout the globe in almost all developed and non-developed countries has forced a large number of scientists to get involved in the investigation of the effects. The major issue is that unlike other forms of radiation exposure, this “non-ionizing electromagnetic radiation” was not present throughout the evolution of life in earth and therefore there are no adaptive mechanisms evolved. All organisms are vulnerable to the possible effects of radiation depending on the actual exposure level. “Safety limits” on the power density have been proposed but ongoing research has shown that these limits are not really safe for humans, not mentioning the entire population of living creatures on earth. The so called “Electrosmog Pollution” originating from the numerous radio and TV stations, communication satellite emission, but most importantly from mobile phone mast antennas, are of major concern, because it is gradually increasing at exponential rate. Therefore the key question is, do living organisms react upon their exposure to fields of non ionizing electromagnetic radiation? To have this question answered extensive research is being performed in various laboratories. One approach of our research includes field measurements within houses and classrooms, since a considerable proportion of the population in each country is exposed to the radiation coming from the nearby mast stations, in order to make a risk assessment. The measurements showed that in many cases the actual radiation present was potentially harmful. In other words, although the measured values were below the national safety levels, nevertheless they were above the levels of other countries. Therefore it has been suggested that a new cellular network should be constructed in order to minimize radiation levels in living areas and schools. Our experimental work is focusing on the elucidation of the effects of non-ionizing EMFs on mice exposed to mobile

  8. Quantifying the effect of autonomous adaptation to global river flood projections: application to future flood risk assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinoshita, Youhei; Tanoue, Masahiro; Watanabe, Satoshi; Hirabayashi, Yukiko

    2018-01-01

    This study represents the first attempt to quantify the effects of autonomous adaptation on the projection of global flood hazards and to assess future flood risk by including this effect. A vulnerability scenario, which varies according to the autonomous adaptation effect for conventional disaster mitigation efforts, was developed based on historical vulnerability values derived from flood damage records and a river inundation simulation. Coupled with general circulation model outputs and future socioeconomic scenarios, potential future flood fatalities and economic loss were estimated. By including the effect of autonomous adaptation, our multimodel ensemble estimates projected a 2.0% decrease in potential flood fatalities and an 821% increase in potential economic losses by 2100 under the highest emission scenario together with a large population increase. Vulnerability changes reduced potential flood consequences by 64%-72% in terms of potential fatalities and 28%-42% in terms of potential economic losses by 2100. Although socioeconomic changes made the greatest contribution to the potential increased consequences of future floods, about a half of the increase of potential economic losses was mitigated by autonomous adaptation. There is a clear and positive relationship between the global temperature increase from the pre-industrial level and the estimated mean potential flood economic loss, while there is a negative relationship with potential fatalities due to the autonomous adaptation effect. A bootstrapping analysis suggests a significant increase in potential flood fatalities (+5.7%) without any adaptation if the temperature increases by 1.5 °C-2.0 °C, whereas the increase in potential economic loss (+0.9%) was not significant. Our method enables the effects of autonomous adaptation and additional adaptation efforts on climate-induced hazards to be distinguished, which would be essential for the accurate estimation of the cost of adaptation to

  9. Global long-range transport and lung cancer risk from polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons shielded by coatings of organic aerosol

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shrivastava, ManishKumar B.; Lou, Sijia; Zelenyuk-Imre, Alla; Easter, Richard C.; Corley, Richard A.; Thrall, Brian D.; Rasch, Philip J.; Fast, Jerome D.; Massey Simonich, Staci L.; Shen, Huizhong; Tao, Shu

    2017-01-23

    Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) have toxic impacts on ecosystems and human health. Laboratory measurements show that one of the most carcinogenic PAHs, benzo(a)pyrene, which is adsorbed on surfaces of soot particles, reacts very quickly with atmospheric oxidants like ozone within ~2 hours. Yet, field observations indicate that it actually persists for much longer periods in the atmosphere, and this large discrepancy is not well understood. Driven by novel experimental understanding, we develop a new modelling approach, whereby particle-bound BaP is shielded from oxidation by a coating of viscous organic aerosol (OA). We show that application of this new approach in a global climate model leads to higher atmospheric BaP concentrations that agree much better with measurements, compared to the default model, as well as stronger long-range transport and greater deposition fluxes. This new approach also predicts elevated lung-cancer risk from PAHs. Predicted oxidation of BaP is highest over a tropical belt where OA is liquid-like.

  10. Implementation of coordinated global serotype 2 oral poliovirus vaccine cessation: risks of inadvertent trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duintjer Tebbens, Radboud J; Hampton, Lee M; Thompson, Kimberly M

    2016-06-01

    The endgame for polio eradication includes coordinated global cessation of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV), starting with the cessation of vaccine containing OPV serotype 2 (OPV2) by switching all trivalent OPV (tOPV) to bivalent OPV (bOPV). The logistics associated with this global switch represent a significant undertaking, with some possibility of inadvertent tOPV use after the switch. We used a previously developed poliovirus transmission and OPV evolution model to explore the relationships between the extent of inadvertent tOPV use, the time after the switch of the inadvertent tOPV use and corresponding population immunity to serotype 2 poliovirus transmission, and the ability of the inadvertently introduced viruses to cause a serotype 2 circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV2) outbreak in a hypothetical population. We then estimated the minimum time until inadvertent tOPV use in a supplemental immunization activity (SIA) or in routine immunization (RI) can lead to a cVDPV2 outbreak in realistic populations with properties like those of northern India, northern Pakistan and Afghanistan, northern Nigeria, and Ukraine. At low levels of inadvertent tOPV use, the minimum time after the switch for the inadvertent use to cause a cVDPV2 outbreak decreases sharply with increasing proportions of children inadvertently receiving tOPV. The minimum times until inadvertent tOPV use in an SIA or in RI can lead to a cVDPV2 outbreak varies widely among populations, with higher basic reproduction numbers, lower tOPV-induced population immunity to serotype 2 poliovirus transmission prior to the switch, and a lower proportion of transmission occurring via the oropharyngeal route all resulting in shorter times. In populations with the lowest expected immunity to serotype 2 poliovirus transmission after the switch, inadvertent tOPV use in an SIA leads to a cVDPV2 outbreak if it occurs as soon as 9 months after the switch with 0.5 % of children aged 0-4 years inadvertently

  11. Case study on the utility of hepatic global gene expression profiling in the risk assessment of the carcinogen furan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jackson, Anna Francina, E-mail: Francina.Jackson@hc-sc.gc.ca [Environmental Health Science and Research Bureau, Health Canada, Ottawa K1A 0K9 (Canada); Department of Biology, Carleton University, 1125 Colonel By Drive, Ottawa K1S 5B6 (Canada); Williams, Andrew, E-mail: Andrew.Williams@hc-sc.gc.ca [Environmental Health Science and Research Bureau, Health Canada, Ottawa K1A 0K9 (Canada); Recio, Leslie, E-mail: lrecio@ils-inc.com [ILS, Inc., P.O. Box 13501, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709 (United States); Waters, Michael D., E-mail: mwaters@ils-inc.com [ILS, Inc., P.O. Box 13501, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709 (United States); Lambert, Iain B., E-mail: Iain.Lambert@carleton.ca [Department of Biology, Carleton University, 1125 Colonel By Drive, Ottawa K1S 5B6 (Canada); Yauk, Carole L., E-mail: Carole.Yauk@hc-sc.gc.ca [Environmental Health Science and Research Bureau, Health Canada, Ottawa K1A 0K9 (Canada)

    2014-01-01

    Furan is a chemical hepatocarcinogen in mice and rats. Its previously postulated cancer mode of action (MOA) is chronic cytotoxicity followed by sustained regenerative proliferation; however, its molecular basis is unknown. To this end, we conducted toxicogenomic analysis of B3C6F1 mouse livers following three week exposures to non-carcinogenic (0, 1, 2 mg/kg bw) or carcinogenic (4 and 8 mg/kg bw) doses of furan. We saw enrichment for pathways responsible for cytotoxicity: stress-activated protein kinase (SAPK) and death receptor (DR5 and TNF-alpha) signaling, and proliferation: extracellular signal-regulated kinases (ERKs) and TNF-alpha. We also noted the involvement of NF-kappaB and c-Jun in response to furan, which are genes that are known to be required for liver regeneration. Furan metabolism by CYP2E1 produces cis-2-butene-1,4-dial (BDA), which is required for ensuing cytotoxicity and oxidative stress. NRF2 is a master regulator of gene expression during oxidative stress and we suggest that chronic NFR2 activity and chronic inflammation may represent critical transition events between the adaptive (regeneration) and adverse (cancer) outcomes. Another objective of this study was to demonstrate the applicability of toxicogenomics data in quantitative risk assessment. We modeled benchmark doses for our transcriptional data and previously published cancer data, and observed consistency between the two. Margin of exposure values for both transcriptional and cancer endpoints were also similar. In conclusion, using furan as a case study we have demonstrated the value of toxicogenomics data in elucidating dose-dependent MOA transitions and in quantitative risk assessment. - Highlights: • Global gene expression changes in furan-exposed mouse livers were analyzed. • A molecular mode of action for furan-induced hepatocarcinogenesis is proposed. • Key pathways include NRF2, SAPK, ERK and death receptor signaling. • Important roles for TNF-alpha, c-Jun, and NF

  12. Case study on the utility of hepatic global gene expression profiling in the risk assessment of the carcinogen furan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jackson, Anna Francina; Williams, Andrew; Recio, Leslie; Waters, Michael D.; Lambert, Iain B.; Yauk, Carole L.

    2014-01-01

    Furan is a chemical hepatocarcinogen in mice and rats. Its previously postulated cancer mode of action (MOA) is chronic cytotoxicity followed by sustained regenerative proliferation; however, its molecular basis is unknown. To this end, we conducted toxicogenomic analysis of B3C6F1 mouse livers following three week exposures to non-carcinogenic (0, 1, 2 mg/kg bw) or carcinogenic (4 and 8 mg/kg bw) doses of furan. We saw enrichment for pathways responsible for cytotoxicity: stress-activated protein kinase (SAPK) and death receptor (DR5 and TNF-alpha) signaling, and proliferation: extracellular signal-regulated kinases (ERKs) and TNF-alpha. We also noted the involvement of NF-kappaB and c-Jun in response to furan, which are genes that are known to be required for liver regeneration. Furan metabolism by CYP2E1 produces cis-2-butene-1,4-dial (BDA), which is required for ensuing cytotoxicity and oxidative stress. NRF2 is a master regulator of gene expression during oxidative stress and we suggest that chronic NFR2 activity and chronic inflammation may represent critical transition events between the adaptive (regeneration) and adverse (cancer) outcomes. Another objective of this study was to demonstrate the applicability of toxicogenomics data in quantitative risk assessment. We modeled benchmark doses for our transcriptional data and previously published cancer data, and observed consistency between the two. Margin of exposure values for both transcriptional and cancer endpoints were also similar. In conclusion, using furan as a case study we have demonstrated the value of toxicogenomics data in elucidating dose-dependent MOA transitions and in quantitative risk assessment. - Highlights: • Global gene expression changes in furan-exposed mouse livers were analyzed. • A molecular mode of action for furan-induced hepatocarcinogenesis is proposed. • Key pathways include NRF2, SAPK, ERK and death receptor signaling. • Important roles for TNF-alpha, c-Jun, and NF

  13. The present global financial and economic crisis poses an additional risk factor for mental health problems on the employees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avčin, Bojana Avguštin; Kučina, Andrea Užmah; Sarotar, Brigita Novak; Radovanović, Mirjana; Plesničar, Blanka Kores

    2011-09-01

    The global financial and economic crisis starting in 2007 led to a deterioration of several socio-economic determinants of mental health. The aim of this cross-sectional study was to examine the impact of the present economic crisis on the depression and anxiety levels of the employed in the private and public sector in Slovenia. Altogether 1592 employees completed an internet based self-reported questionnaire. Data about perceived impact of the economic crisis, several socio-demographic, socioeconomic, and health parameters were collected. Depression symptoms were assessed by the Center for Epidemiological Studies-Depression Scale and anxiety symptoms by the Spielberger State-Inventory. Regression models were used 1) to explore the associations of the economic crisis with the level of depression and anxiety symptoms while controlling for some sociodemographic and work characteristic variables, and 2) to understand the relationship between some potentially important socioeconomic variables and the perception of the economic crisis. Depressive and anxiety scores were significantly increased among 590 (46.6%) employees being affected by the economic crisis. The level of depressive symptoms was significantly associated with perceived impact by the crisis, recent sick leave, reported injuries sustained at work, benzodiazepine and analgesic use, the lack of emotional support, and trust in crisis telephone lines. The level of anxiety symptoms yielded the robust association with the level of depression symptoms, reported injuries sustained on the way to work and education. The economic crisis poses an additional risk factor for mental health problems which clinicians should internalize and become more aware of them. Symptoms of depression and anxiety can be masked in high-utilizers of medical care with physical complaints or psychoactive drug use.

  14. Self-other differences in H1N1 flu risk perception in a global context: a comparative study between the United States and China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Gang Kevin; Zhang, Jueman Mandy; Chu, Kejun Rebecca; Shen, Guolin

    2014-01-01

    Extending research on self-other differences in perception to a global health risk, this study compares U.S. and Chinese college students' perceived H1N1 flu risk at four levels: personal, group, societal, and global. It also examines how personal experience, interpersonal communication, traditional and Internet-based media, and self-efficacy affect perception at four levels, as well as the self-other differences between the personal level and each of the other three levels. An online survey in both countries reveals an "ascending pattern," showing higher perceived risk for others than for selves. Chinese respondents perceive higher risk than U.S. respondents at all levels. Interpersonal communication predicts risk perception at four levels in the United States and at the group and societal levels in China. New media exposure exerts influence on all but the group level in China, while social networking sites (SNS) exposure predicts group- and societal-level risk perception in the United States. The overall attention paid to H1N1 information in the media affects all levels in both countries. Interaction between media exposure and attention is influential at all levels in the United States. Self-efficacy is negatively associated with risk perception in China except at the global level. Attention to media in the United States, and SNS exposure in China, explain the self-other differences in three comparisons, along with self-efficacy, which decreases the self-other gap in the United States while increasing the gap in China.

  15. Globally-Applicable Predictive Wildfire Model   a Temporal-Spatial GIS Based Risk Analysis Using Data Driven Fuzzy Logic Functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Dool, G.

    2017-11-01

    This study (van den Dool, 2017) is a proof of concept for a global predictive wildfire model, in which the temporal-spatial characteristics of wildfires are placed in a Geographical Information System (GIS), and the risk analysis is based on data-driven fuzzy logic functions. The data sources used in this model are available as global datasets, but subdivided into three pilot areas: North America (California/Nevada), Europe (Spain), and Asia (Mongolia), and are downscaled to the highest resolution (3-arc second). The GIS is constructed around three themes: topography, fuel availability and climate. From the topographical data, six derived sub-themes are created and converted to a fuzzy membership based on the catchment area statistics. The fuel availability score is a composite of four data layers: land cover, wood loads, biomass, biovolumes. As input for the climatological sub-model reanalysed daily averaged, weather-related data is used, which is accumulated to a global weekly time-window (to account for the uncertainty within the climatological model) and forms the temporal component of the model. The final product is a wildfire risk score (from 0 to 1) by week, representing the average wildfire risk in an area. To compute the potential wildfire risk the sub-models are combined usinga Multi-Criteria Approach, and the model results are validated against the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve.

  16. The Global Epidemiologic Transition: Noncommunicable Diseases and Emerging Health Risk of Allergic Disease in Sub-Saharan Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atiim, George A.; Elliott, Susan J.

    2016-01-01

    Globally, there has been a shift in the causes of illness and death from infectious diseases to noncommunicable diseases. This changing pattern has been attributed to the effects of an (ongoing) epidemiologic transition. Although researchers have applied epidemiologic transition theory to questions of global health, there have been relatively few…

  17. Global alcohol exposure estimates by country, territory and region for 2005--a contribution to the Comparative Risk Assessment for the 2010 Global Burden of Disease Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shield, Kevin D; Rylett, Margaret; Gmel, Gerhard; Gmel, Gerrit; Kehoe-Chan, Tara A K; Rehm, Jürgen

    2013-05-01

    This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of life-time abstainers, former drinkers and current drinkers, adult per-capita consumption of alcohol and pattern of drinking scores, by country and Global Burden of Disease region for 2005, and to forecast these indicators for 2010. Statistical modelling based on survey data and routine statistics. A total of 241 countries and territories. Per-capita consumption data were obtained with the help of the World Health Organization's Global Information System on Alcohol and Health. Drinking status data were obtained from Gender, Alcohol and Culture: An International Study, the STEPwise approach to Surveillance study, the World Health Survey/Multi-Country Study and other surveys. Consumption and drinking status data were triangulated to estimate alcohol consumption across multiple categories. In 2005 adult per-capita annual consumption of alcohol was 6.1 litres, with 1.7 litres stemming from unrecorded consumption; 17.1 litres of alcohol were consumed per drinker, 45.8% of all adults were life-time abstainers, 13.6% were former drinkers and 40.6% were current drinkers. Life-time abstention was most prevalent in North Africa/Middle East and South Asia. Eastern Europe and Southern sub-Saharan Africa had the most detrimental pattern of drinking scores, while drinkers in Europe (Eastern and Central) and sub-Saharan Africa (Southern and West) consumed the most alcohol. Just over 40% of the world's adult population consumes alcohol and the average consumption per drinker is 17.1 litres per year. However, the prevalence of abstention, level of alcohol consumption and patterns of drinking vary widely across regions of the world. © 2013 The Authors, Addiction © 2013 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  18. Global Derivatives

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Torben Juul

    approaches to dealing in the global business environment." - Sharon Brown-Hruska, Commissioner, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, USA. "This comprehensive survey of modern risk management using derivative securities is a fine demonstration of the practical relevance of modern derivatives theory to risk......" provides comprehensive coverage of different types of derivatives, including exchange traded contracts and over-the-counter instruments as well as real options. There is an equal emphasis on the practical application of derivatives and their actual uses in business transactions and corporate risk...... management situations. Its key features include: derivatives are introduced in a global market perspective; describes major derivative pricing models for practical use, extending these principles to valuation of real options; practical applications of derivative instruments are richly illustrated...

  19. PREFACE: The IARU International Scientific Congress on Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions (10-12 March, Copenhagen, Denmark)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    In an attempt to make the main results from the Congress on Climate Change: Global Risk, Challenges and Decisions available to the public as early as possible, the steering committee decided to publish all talks and posters presented at the Congress in this unique collection of abstracts, in time for the conference Further to the abstract collection the Congress will publish two more products in the near future as described in the following; a synthesis report with the main conclusions, and a book aimed at an academic audience 1 Two Products from the Congress Two products are being produced based on the presentations and discussions at the Congress The first product will be a synthesis report of the main conclusions from the Congress The synthesis report will be ready in June 2009 The synthesis has the purpose of explaining the current state of understanding man-made climate change and what we can do about it to the non-scientist, ie politicians, media and interested citizens The synthesis will build on the messages presented to the Danish Prime Minister, Mr Anders Fogh Rasmussen, host of the COP15, at the closing session of the Congress These six messages were drafted by the Writing Team (see below) based on input from the session chairs and a reading of the 1600+ abstracts submitted to the Congress The second product is a book aimed at an academic audience The book will include more detailed scientific results from all of the sessions and will be published by Cambridge University Press in 2010 It will be an extension and elaboration of the synthesis report Who's writing the Synthesis Report and the Book? A Writing Team consisting of 12 internationally respected scientists from all continents is responsible for developing both products When the synthesis report has been drafted by the Writing Team, it will be discussed in the Scientific Steering Committee of the Congress and reviewed by the Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP) and a group of experts identified

  20. Epigenetic factors in cancer risk: effect of chemical carcinogens on global DNA methylation pattern in human TK6 cells.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali M Tabish

    Full Text Available In the current study, we assessed the global DNA methylation changes in human lymphoblastoid (TK6 cells in vitro in response to 5 direct and 10 indirect-acting genotoxic agents. TK6 cells were exposed to the selected agents for 24 h in the presence and/or absence of S9 metabolic mix. Liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry was used for quantitative profiling of 5-methyl-2'-deoxycytidine. The effect of exposure on 5-methyl-2'-deoxycytidine between control and exposed cultures was assessed by applying the marginal model with correlated residuals on % global DNA methylation data. We reported the induction of global DNA hypomethylation in TK6 cells in response to S9 metabolic mix, under the current experimental settings. Benzene, hydroquinone, styrene, carbon tetrachloride and trichloroethylene induced global DNA hypomethylation in TK6 cells. Furthermore, we showed that dose did not have an effect on global DNA methylation in TK6 cells. In conclusion we report changes in global DNA methylation as an early event in response to agents traditionally considered as genotoxic.

  1. Climates of risk: a field analysis of global climate change in US media discourse, 1997-2004.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonnett, John

    2010-11-01

    How are industry and environmentalist discourses of climate risk related to dominant scientific and political discourses? This study operationalizes Bourdieu's concept of symbolic capital in order to map dimensions of risk description and prescription onto a journalistic field of industry, environmentalist, scientific, and political media. Results show that conventional definitions of risk mirror an opposition between scientific and political discourses. Prescriptions for action on risk are partly autonomous from definitions however. Environmentalist and scientific media feature more proactive discourse, and industry and political media feature more reactive discourse. Implications for future research on climate risk and relational studies of media discourse are discussed.

  2. A Comparison of the Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 Tool With the Subjective Global Assessment Tool to Detect Nutritional Status in Chinese Patients Undergoing Surgery With Gastrointestinal Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chi, Juntao; Yin, Shaohua; Zhu, Yongjian; Gao, Fengli; Song, Xinna; Song, Zhenlan; Lv, Junying; Li, Miaomiao

    The objectives of this study were to describe the nutritional status of Chinese patients with gastrointestinal cancer undergoing surgery and to compare the ease of use, diversity, and concordance of the Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 with the Subjective Global Assessment in the same patients. A total of 280 gastrointestinal cancer patients admitted for elective surgery were evaluated by the Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 (NRS 2002) and Subjective Global Assessment (SGA) tools within 48 hours of admission from April to October 2012. Related opinions about ease of using the tools were obtained from 10 nurses. The prevalence of patients at nutritional risk with the SGA and NRS 2002 was 33.9% and 53.2% on admission. In the total group, ≤70 age group, and >70 age group, respectively, consistency was observed in 214 (76.4%), 175 (91.1%), and 39 (44.3%); and kappa values were 0.54 (p 70 age group (p nutritional status of patients with gastrointestinal cancer undergoing surgery, but it appeared to detect more patients at nutritional risk in the >70 age group.

  3. Developing the Philippines as a Global Hub for Disaster Risk Reduction - A Health Research Initiative as Presented at the 10th Philippine National Health Research System Week Celebration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banwell, Nicola; Montoya, Jaime; Opeña, Merlita; IJsselmuiden, Carel; Law, Ronald; Balboa, Gloria J; Rutherford, Shannon; Chu, Cordia; Murray, Virginia

    2016-10-25

    The recent Philippine National Health Research System (PNHRS) Week Celebration highlighted the growing commitment to Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) in the Philippines. The event was lead by the Philippine Council for Health Research and Development of the Department of Science and Technology and the Department of Health, and saw the participation of national and international experts in DRR, and numerous research consortia from all over the Philippines. With a central focus on the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, the DRR related events recognised the significant disaster risks faced in the Philippines. They also illustrated the Philippine strengths and experience in DRR. Key innovations in science and technology showcased at the conference include the web-base hazard mapping applications 'Project NOAH' and 'FaultFinder'. Other notable innovations include 'Surveillance in Post Extreme Emergencies and Disasters' (SPEED) which monitors potential outbreaks through a syndromic reporting system. Three areas noted for further development in DRR science and technology included: integrated national hazard assessment, strengthened collaboration, and improved documentation. Finally, the event saw the proposal to develop the Philippines into a global hub for DRR. The combination of the risk profile of the Philippines, established national structures and experience in DRR, as well as scientific and technological innovation in this field are potential factors that could position the Philippines as a future global leader in DRR. The purpose of this article is to formally document the key messages of the DRR-related events of the PNHRS Week Celebration.

  4. The Relation between Adolescent Self Assessment of Health and Risk Behaviours: Could a Global Measure of Health Provide Indications of Health Risk Exposures?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nkansah-Amankra, Stephen; Walker, Ashley Dawn

    2012-01-01

    Objective: Self-rated health (SRH) has become a key organizing construct for assessing multiple dimensions of populations' physical and psychosocial health functioning. However, it is unclear how adolescents' subjective self assessment of health reflects health risk exposures, co-occurring health risks (problem behaviours) and other pre-existing…

  5. Balance Sheet Network Analysis of Too-Connected-to-Fail Risk in Global and Domestic Banking Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Jorge A Chan-Lau

    2010-01-01

    The 2008/9 financial crisis highlighted the importance of evaluating vulnerabilities owing to interconnectedness, or Too-Connected-to-Fail risk, among financial institutions for country monitoring, financial surveillance, investment analysis and risk management purposes. This paper illustrates the use of balance sheet-based network analysis to evaluate interconnectedness risk, under extreme adverse scenarios, in banking systems in mature and emerging market countries, and between individual b...

  6. Getting caught with our plants down: the risks of a global crop yield slowdown from climate trends in the next two decades

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lobell, David B; Tebaldi, Claudia

    2014-01-01

    In many discussions of climate change impacts in agriculture, the large magnitudes of expected impacts toward the end of the century are used to emphasize that most of the risks are to future generations. However, this perspective misses the important fact that demand growth for food is expected to be much slower after 2050 than before it, and that the next two decades represent the bulk of growth before 2050. Thus, impacts of smaller magnitude in the near-term can be as or more consequential for food prices or food security as larger magnitude impacts in the future. Here we estimate the risks that climate trends over the next 10 or 20 years could have large impacts on global yields of wheat and maize, with a focus on scenarios that would cut the expected rates of yield gains in half. We find that because of global warming, the chance of climate trends over a 20 year period causing a 10% yield loss has increased from a less than 1 in 200 chance arising from internal climate variability alone, to a 1 in 10 chance for maize and 1 in 20 chance for wheat. Estimated risks for maize are higher because of a greater geographic concentration than wheat, as well as a slightly more negative aggregate temperature sensitivity. Global warming has also greatly increased the chance of climate trends large enough to halve yield trends over a 10 year period, with a roughly 1 in 4 chance for maize and 1 in 6 chance for wheat. Estimated risks are slightly larger when using climate projections from a large ensemble of a single climate model that more fully explores internal climate variability, than a multi-model ensemble that more fully explores model uncertainty. Although scenarios of climate impacts large enough to halve yield growth rates are still fairly unlikely, they may warrant consideration by institutions potentially affected by associated changes in international food prices. (paper)

  7. The rationale/design of the Guimarães/Vizela study: a multimodal population-based cohort study to determine global cardiovascular risk and disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunha, Pedro Guimarães; Cotter, Jorge; Oliveira, Pedro; Vila, Isabel; Sousa, Nuno

    2014-06-01

    Cardiovascular disease and dementia are growing medical and social problems in aging societies. Appropriate knowledge of cardiovascular disease and cognitive decline risk factors (RFs) are critical for global CVR health preventive intervention. Many epidemiological studies use case definition based on data collected/measured in a single visit, a fact that can overestimate prevalence rates and distant from clinical practice demanding criteria. Portugal displays an elevated stroke mortality rate. However, population's global CV risk characterization is limited, namely, considering traditional/nontraditional RF and new intermediate phenotypes of CV and renal disease. Association of hemodynamic variables (pulse wave velocity and central blood pressure) with global CVR stratification, cognitive performance, and kidney disease are practically inexistent at a dwelling population level. After reviewing published data, we designed a population-based cohort study to analyze the prevalence of these cardiovascular RFs and intermediate phenotypes, using random sampling of adult dwellers living in 2 adjacent cities. Strict definition of phenotypes was planned: subjects were observed twice, and several hemodynamic and other biological variables measured at least 3 months apart. Three thousand thirty-eight subjects were enrolled, and extensive data collection (including central and peripheral blood pressure, pulse wave velocity), sample processing, and biobank edification were carried out. One thousand forty-seven cognitive evaluations were performed. Seeking for CV risk reclassification, early identification of subjects at risk, and evidence of early vascular aging and cognitive and renal function decline, using the strict daily clinical practice criteria, will lead to better resource allocation in preventive measures at a population level.

  8. Travel characteristics and yellow fever vaccine usage among US Global TravEpiNet travelers visiting countries with risk of yellow fever virus transmission, 2009-2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jentes, Emily S; Han, Pauline; Gershman, Mark D; Rao, Sowmya R; LaRocque, Regina C; Staples, J Erin; Ryan, Edward T

    2013-05-01

    Yellow fever (YF) vaccine-associated serious adverse events and changing YF epidemiology have challenged healthcare providers to vaccinate only travelers whose risk of YF during travel is greater than their risk of adverse events. We describe the travel characteristics and YF vaccine use among US travelers visiting Global TravEpiNet clinics from January of 2009 to March of 2011. Of 16,660 travelers, 5,588 (34%) had itineraries to areas with risk of YF virus transmission. Of those travelers visiting one country with YF risk (N = 4,517), 71% were vaccinated at the visit, and 20% were presumed to be immune from prior vaccination. However, travelers visiting friends and relatives (odds ratio [OR] = 2.57, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 1.27-5.22) or going to Nigeria (OR = 3.01, 95% CI = 1.37-6.62) were significantly more likely to decline vaccination. To optimize YF vaccine use, clinicians should discuss an individual's risk-benefit assessment of vaccination and close knowledge gaps regarding vaccine use among at-risk populations.

  9. Projected global health impacts from severe nuclear accidents: Conversion of projected doses to risks on a global scale: Experience from Chernobyl releases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Catlin, R.J.; Goldman, M.; Anspaugh, L.R.

    1988-01-01

    Estimates of projected collective dose and average individual dose commitments from Chernobyl releases were made for various regions. Consideration was given to the possible effectiveness of protective actions taken by various countries to reduce projected doses to their populations. Although some preliminary data indicate possible mean reductions of about 25% in total collective doses over the first year, and of about 55% in collective dose to the thyroid, no corrections were made to these dose estimates because of the variable nature of the data. A new combined set of dose-effect models recently published by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission was then applied to estimate the ranges of possible future additional health effects due to the Chernobyl accident. In this method possible health effects are estimated on an individual site basis and the results are then summed. Both absolute and relative risk projection models are used. By use of these methods, ''best'' estimates of possible additional health effects were projected for the Northern Hemisphere as follows: 1) over the next 50 years, up to 28 thousand radiation-induced fatal cancers, compared to an expected 600 million cancer deaths from natural or spontaneous causes; 2) over the next year, up to 700 additional cases of severe mental retardation, compared to a normal expectation of 340 thousand cases; and 3) in the first generation, up to 1.9 thousand radiation-induced genetic disorders, compared to 180 million naturally-occurring cases. The possibility of zero health effects at very low doses and dose rates cannot be excluded. Owing to the very large numbers of naturally-occurring health effects, it is unlikely that any additional health effects will be demonstrable except, perhaps, for the more highly exposed population in the immediate vicinity of Chernobyl. 13 refs, 4 figs, 6 tabs

  10. Global importation and population risk factors for measles in New Zealand: a case study for highly immunized populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayman, D T S; Marshall, J C; French, N P; Carpenter, T E; Roberts, M G; Kiedrzynski, T

    2017-07-01

    As endemic measles is eliminated through immunization, countries must determine the risk factors for the importation of measles into highly immunized populations to target control measures. Despite eliminating endemic measles, New Zealand suffers from outbreaks after introductions from abroad, enabling us to use it as a model for measles introduction risk. We used a generalized linear model to analyze risk factors for 1137 measles cases from 2007 to June 2014, provide estimates of national immunity levels, and model measles importation risk. People of European ethnicity made up the majority of measles cases. Age is a positive risk factor, particularly 0-2-year-olds and 5-17-year-old Europeans, along with increased wealth. Pacific islanders were also at greater risk, but due to 0-2-year-old cases. Despite recent high measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine immunization coverage, overall population immunity against measles remains ~90% and is lower in people born between 1982 and 2005. Greatest measles importation risk is during December, and countries predicted to be sources have historical connections and highest travel rates (Australia and UK), followed by Asian countries with high travel rates and higher measles incidences. Our results suggest measles importation due to travel is seeding measles outbreaks, and immunization levels are insufficient to continue to prevent outbreaks because of heterogeneous immunity in the population, leaving particular age groups at risk.

  11. The New Rule Paradigm Shift: Transforming At-Risk Programs by Matching Business Archetypes Strategies in the Global Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stark, Paul S.

    2007-01-01

    The challenge was given to transform aviation-related programs to keep them from being eliminated. These programs were to be discontinued due to enrollment declines, costs, legislative mandates, lack of administrative support, and drastic state budget reductions. The New Rule was a paradigm shift of focus to the global market for program…

  12. Responding to global challenges in food, energy, environment and water: Risks and options assessment for decision-making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grafton, Quentin; Ansink, Erik

    2016-01-01

    We analyse the threats of global environmental change, as they relate to food security. First, we review three discourses: (i) ‘sustainable intensification’, or the increase of food supplies without compromising food producing inputs, such as soils and water; (ii) the ‘nexus’ that seeks to

  13. Waste Crime – Waste Risks: Gaps in Meeting the Global Waste Challenge : A UNEP Rapid Response Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ieva Rucevska; Christian Nelleman; Nancy Isarin; Wanhua Yang; Ning Liu; Kelly Yu; Siv Sandnaes; Katie Olley; Howard McCann; Leila Devia; L.C.J. Bisschop (Lieselot); Denise Soesilo; Tina Schoolmeester; Rune Hendriksen; Rannveig Nilsen; Claire Eamer

    2015-01-01

    markdownabstractMore than ever, our future depends upon how we manage the future of our waste. As an integrated part of sustainable development, effective waste management can reduce our global footprint. Ignoring or neglecting the challenges of waste, however, can lead to significant health,

  14. Global DNA methylation in earthworms: A candidate biomarker of epigenetic risks related to the presence of metals/metalloids in terrestrial environments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maldonado Santoyo, Maria; Rodriguez Flores, Crescencio; Lopez Torres, Adolfo; Wrobel, Kazimierz [Department of Chemistry, University of Guanajuato, L de Retana No 5, 36000 Guanajuato (Mexico); Wrobel, Katarzyna, E-mail: katarzyn@quijote.ugto.mx [Department of Chemistry, University of Guanajuato, L de Retana No 5, 36000 Guanajuato (Mexico)

    2011-10-15

    In this work, possible relationships between global DNA methylation and metal/metalloid concentrations in earthworms have been explored. Direct correlation was observed between soil and tissue As, Se, Sb, Zn, Cu, Mn, Ag, Co, Hg, Pb (p < 0.05). Speciation results obtained for As and Hg hint at the capability of earthworms for conversion of inorganic element forms present in soil to methylated species. Inverse correlation was observed between the percentage of methylated DNA cytosines and total tissue As, As + Hg, As + Hg + Se + Sb ({beta} = -0.8456, p = 0.071; {beta} = -0.9406, p = 0.017; {beta} = -0.9526, p = 0.012 respectively), as well as inorganic As + Hg ({beta} = -0.8807, p = 0.049). It was concluded that earthworms would be particularly helpful as bioindicators of elements undergoing in vivo methylation and might also be used to assess the related risk of epigenetic changes in DNA methylation. - Graphical abstract: Display Omitted Highlights: > Several metals and metalloids contribute to epigenetic gene regulation. > As, Hg, Se, Sb inversely correlated with global DNA methylation in earthworms. > Biomethylation of the above elements in worms suggested. > Elements biomethylation apparently competes with DNA methylation. > DNA methylation a biomarker of epigenetic risks related to soil metals/metalloids. - Biomethylation of As, Hg in earthworms versus DNA methylation - a candidate biomarker of epigenetic risks related to the presence of metals/metalloids in soil.

  15. Contemporary Management and Control of Uncomplicated Hypertension in Canada: Insight From the Primary Care Audit of Global Risk Management (PARADIGM) Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Milan; Szmitko, Paul; Singh, Narendra; Tsigoulis, Michelle; Kajil, Mahesh; Stone, James

    2015-05-01

    Although clinical practice guidelines for the management of hypertension exist in Canada, the rate of contemporary blood pressure (BP) control remains unclear. In the Primary Care Audit of Global Risk Management (PARADIGM) study, 3015 healthy, middle-aged Canadians, free of cardiovascular disease (CVD) or diabetes were evaluated. In this analysis, we characterized the CVD risk factors, treatment patterns, and BP control rates in subjects with uncomplicated hypertension. A total of 917 subjects (30.4%) had a diagnosis of hypertension. The median age was 59 ± 8 years. The mean treated systolic/diastolic BP were 134 ± 14 mm Hg/82 ± 9 mm Hg, respectively. CVD risk factors included past/current smoking (35.9%), abdominal obesity (62.5%), and dyslipidemia (59.4%). Using the Framingham Risk Score, 20.4%, 41.0%, and 38.5% of the subjects were at low, intermediate, and high risk, respectively. Of the 88% with treated hypertension, 46.9%, 38.7%, and 14.3% received 1, 2, or ≥3 drugs, respectively. The rate of BP control was 57.4% (systolic BP Risk Score, and was lower in patients with metabolic syndrome vs those without (P risk factors are prevalent in Canadians with uncomplicated hypertension. BP control was modest (57.4%) and was lowest in patients prescribed diuretic monotherapy and in those at highest CVD risk. Despite the success of national hypertension strategies, enhanced efforts are warranted to improve BP control in Canada. Copyright © 2015 Canadian Cardiovascular Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Concern and risk perception of osteoporosis and fracture among post-menopausal Australian women: results from the Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW) cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barcenilla-Wong, A L; Chen, J S; March, L M

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to identify factors associated with concern and perception of risks of osteoporosis and osteoporotic fractures and determine whether bone mineral density (BMD) testing influenced concern and risk perception. Study subjects (n = 1,082, age 55-94 years) were female Australian participants of the Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW). Self-administered questionnaires were sent annually from 2007 to 2010. Study outcomes included 'concern about osteoporosis', 'perception of getting osteoporosis' and 'perception of fracture risk' compared to similar aged women. The closest post-BMD testing or baseline questionnaires were used for women with and without BMD testing, respectively. Multinomial logistic regression was used for the analysis. BMD testing, prior fracture after age 45, younger age and lower self-reported general health were significantly associated with being 'very' or 'somewhat concerned' about osteoporosis and having a 'much higher' or 'little higher' risk perception of osteoporosis and fractures. A poorer BMD result was associated with higher concern and higher risk perceptions. The presence of comorbidities, having ≥2 falls in the preceding year and maternal osteoporosis were associated with higher concern. Maternal osteoporosis, presence of comorbidities, weight loss of ≥5 kg in the preceding year and low body mass index were associated with higher perceptions of osteoporosis risk. Women's concern and risk perception of osteoporosis and osteoporotic fractures were reasonably well founded. However, increasing age, height loss, smoking and drinking were not associated with concern and perception despite being known osteoporosis risk factors. These factors should be considered in planning for education and awareness raising programmes.

  17. Alcohol Consumption at Any Level Increases Risk of Injury Caused by Others: Data from the Study on Global AGEing and Adult Health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Clausen

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background Alcohol use is a well-known risk factor for injury. However, information is needed about alcohol drinking patterns and the risk of injury among older adults in low- and middle-income countries as this population grows. We aimed to examine the influence of drinking patterns on the burden of injury and investigate factors associated with different types of injury in older populations in six emerging economies. Methods Data from more than 37,0 adults aged 50 years and older were included from the Study on Global AGEing and Adult Health (SAGE Wave 1 conducted in six emerging economies, namely, China, Ghana, India, Mexico, Russia, and South Africa. We investigated past-year reported injuries from falls, traffic accidents, and being hit or stabbed. Alcohol drinking patterns were measured as lifetime abstinence, ever but not past- week use, and gender-specific past-week low-risk and high-risk use. We stratified by gender and used logistic regression models to observe the association between alcohol drinking pattern and risk of injury by controlling for other factors. Results During the year prior to interview, 627 (2.2% subjects reported bodily injury resulting from a car accident, 1,156 (4.2% from a fall, and 339 (.9% from being hit or stabbed during the past year. For women, only being a high-risk drinker increased the risk of being hit or stabbed, whereas for men, all levels of drinking were associated with an increased risk of being hit or stabbed. We observed a higher risk of being hit or stabbed from past-week high-risk drinking among women (odds ratio [OR] = 6.09, P < 0.01 than among men (OR = 3.57, P < 0.01. We observed no association between alcohol drinking pattern and injury due to car accidents for either women or men. Conclusions The risk of experiencing injury due to violence increased with level of alcohol exposure of the victim. The increase in alcohol use in emerging economies calls for further study into the consequences of

  18. A Data-Driven Evaluation of the Stop TB Global Partnership Strategy of Targeting Key Populations at Greater Risk for Tuberculosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLaren, Zoë M; Schnippel, Kathryn; Sharp, Alana

    2016-01-01

    Identifying those infected with tuberculosis (TB) is an important component of any strategy for reducing TB transmission and population prevalence. The Stop TB Global Partnership recently launched an initiative with a focus on key populations at greater risk for TB infection or poor clinical outcomes, due to housing and working conditions, incarceration, low household income, malnutrition, co-morbidities, exposure to tobacco and silica dust, or barriers to accessing medical care. To achieve operational targets, the global health community needs effective, low cost, and large-scale strategies for identifying key populations. Using South Africa as a test case, we assess the feasibility and effectiveness of targeting active case finding to populations with TB risk factors identified from regularly collected sources of data. Our approach is applicable to all countries with TB testing and census data. It allows countries to tailor their outreach activities to the particular risk factors of greatest significance in their national context. We use a national database of TB test results to estimate municipality-level TB infection prevalence, and link it to Census data to measure population risk factors for TB including rates of urban households, informal settlements, household income, unemployment, and mobile phone ownership. To examine the relationship between TB prevalence and risk factors, we perform linear regression analysis and plot the set of population characteristics against TB prevalence and TB testing rate by municipality. We overlay lines of best fit and smoothed curves of best fit from locally weighted scatter plot smoothing. Higher TB prevalence is statistically significantly associated with more urban municipalities (slope coefficient β1 = 0.129, p informal settlement households (β1 = 0.021, p = 0.136, R2 = 0.014). These analyses reveal that the set of characteristics identified by the Global Plan as defining key populations do not adequately predict

  19. The Burden Attributable to Mental and Substance Use Disorders as Risk Factors for Suicide: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrari, Alize J.; Norman, Rosana E.; Freedman, Greg; Baxter, Amanda J.; Pirkis, Jane E.; Harris, Meredith G.; Page, Andrew; Carnahan, Emily; Degenhardt, Louisa; Vos, Theo; Whiteford, Harvey A.

    2014-01-01

    Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010) identified mental and substance use disorders as the 5th leading contributor of burden in 2010, measured by disability adjusted life years (DALYs). This estimate was incomplete as it excluded burden resulting from the increased risk of suicide captured elsewhere in GBD 2010's mutually exclusive list of diseases and injuries. Here, we estimate suicide DALYs attributable to mental and substance use disorders. Methods Relative-risk estimates of suicide due to mental and substance use disorders and the global prevalence of each disorder were used to estimate population attributable fractions. These were adjusted for global differences in the proportion of suicide due to mental and substance use disorders compared to other causes then multiplied by suicide DALYs reported in GBD 2010 to estimate attributable DALYs (with 95% uncertainty). Results Mental and substance use disorders were responsible for 22.5 million (14.8–29.8 million) of the 36.2 million (26.5–44.3 million) DALYs allocated to suicide in 2010. Depression was responsible for the largest proportion of suicide DALYs (46.1% (28.0%–60.8%)) and anorexia nervosa the lowest (0.2% (0.02%–0.5%)). DALYs occurred throughout the lifespan, with the largest proportion found in Eastern Europe and Asia, and males aged 20–30 years. The inclusion of attributable suicide DALYs would have increased the overall burden of mental and substance use disorders (assigned to them in GBD 2010 as a direct cause) from 7.4% (6.2%–8.6%) to 8.3% (7.1%–9.6%) of global DALYs, and would have changed the global ranking from 5th to 3rd leading cause of burden. Conclusions Capturing the suicide burden attributable to mental and substance use disorders allows for more accurate estimates of burden. More consideration needs to be given to interventions targeted to populations with, or at risk for, mental and substance use disorders as an effective strategy for suicide

  20. Travel Characteristics and Yellow Fever Vaccine Usage Among US Global TravEpiNet Travelers Visiting Countries with Risk of Yellow Fever Virus Transmission, 2009–2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jentes, Emily S.; Han, Pauline; Gershman, Mark D.; Rao, Sowmya R.; LaRocque, Regina C.; Staples, J. Erin; Ryan, Edward T.

    2013-01-01

    Yellow fever (YF) vaccine-associated serious adverse events and changing YF epidemiology have challenged healthcare providers to vaccinate only travelers whose risk of YF during travel is greater than their risk of adverse events. We describe the travel characteristics and YF vaccine use among US travelers visiting Global TravEpiNet clinics from January of 2009 to March of 2011. Of 16,660 travelers, 5,588 (34%) had itineraries to areas with risk of YF virus transmission. Of those travelers visiting one country with YF risk (N = 4,517), 71% were vaccinated at the visit, and 20% were presumed to be immune from prior vaccination. However, travelers visiting friends and relatives (odds ratio [OR] = 2.57, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 1.27–5.22) or going to Nigeria (OR = 3.01, 95% CI = 1.37–6.62) were significantly more likely to decline vaccination. To optimize YF vaccine use, clinicians should discuss an individual's risk–benefit assessment of vaccination and close knowledge gaps regarding vaccine use among at-risk populations. PMID:23458961

  1. Baseline disability in activities of daily living predicts dementia risk even after controlling for baseline global cognitive ability and depressive symptoms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fauth, Elizabeth B; Schwartz, Sarah; Tschanz, Joann T; Østbye, Truls; Corcoran, Christopher; Norton, Maria C

    2013-06-01

    Late-life disability in activities of daily living (ADL) is theorized to be driven by underlying cognitive and/or physical impairment, interacting with psychological and environmental factors. Although we expect that cognitive deficits would explain associations between ADL disability and dementia risk, the current study examined ADL as a predictor of future dementia after controlling for global cognitive status. The population-based Cache County Memory Study (N = 3547) assessed individuals in four triennial waves (average age 74.9 years, years of education 13.36 years; 57.9% were women). Cox proportional hazards regression models assessed whether baseline ADL disability (presence of 2+ Instrumental ADL and/or 1+ Personal ADL) predicted incident dementia after controlling for APOE status, gender, age, baseline cognitive ability (Modified Mini-mental State Exam, 3MS-R; adjusted for education level), and baseline depressive symptoms (Diagnostic Interview Schedule). Over the course of study, 571 cases of incident dementia were identified through in-depth cognitive assessment, ending in expert consensus diagnosis. Results from Cox models suggest that ADL disability is a statistically significant predictor of incident dementia (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.83, p controlling for covariates. Findings suggest that ADL disability offers unique contributions in risk for incident dementia, even after controlling for global cognitive status. We discuss how physical impairment and executive function may play important roles in this relationship, and how ADL is useful, not just a diagnostic tool at, or after dementia onset, but also as a risk factor for future dementia, even in individuals not impaired on global cognitive tests. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  2. Global Sourcing of Services

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ørberg Jensen, Peter D.; Petersen, Bent

    2013-01-01

    The global sourcing of services offers high returns but is also associated with high risks. The extent to which firms engage in ‘transformational’ global sourcing (i.e., global sourcing implying considerable changes in the home organization) chiefly depends on management's comfort zone which...

  3. Emerging and established global life-style risk factors for cancer of the upper aero-digestive tract.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Bhawna; Johnson, Newell W

    2014-01-01

    Upper aero-digestive tract cancer is a multidimensional problem, international trends showing complex rises and falls in incidence and mortality across the globe, with variation across different cultural and socio-economic groups. This paper seeks some explanations and identifies some research and policy needs. The literature illustrates the multifactorial nature of carcinogenesis. At the cellular level, it is viewed as a multistep process involving multiple mutations and selection for cells with progressively increasing capacity for proliferation, survival, invasion, and metastasis. Established and emerging risk factors, in addition to changes in incidence and prevalence of cancers of the upper aero-digestive tract, were identified. Exposure to tobacco and alcohol, as well as diets inadequate in fresh fruits and vegetables, remain the major risk factors, with persistent infection by particular so-called "high risk" genotypes of human papillomavirus increasingly recognised as also playing an important role in a subset of cases, particularly for the oropharynx. Chronic trauma to oral mucosa from poor restorations and prostheses, in addition to poor oral hygiene with a consequent heavy microbial load in the mouth, are also emerging as significant risk factors. Understanding and quantifying the impact of individual risk factors for these cancers is vital for health decision-making, planning and prevention. National policies and programmes should be designed and implemented to control exposure to environmental risks, by legislation if necessary, and to raise awareness so that people are provided with the information and support they need to adopt healthy lifestyles.

  4. A Nation at Risk: Increasing College Participation and Persistence Among African American Males to Stimulate U.S. Global Competitiveness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriel A. Hilton

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Today’s knowledge-based, global commerce requires continuous investment in human capital through postsecondary education for countries to be fiercely competitive. Countries, such as China and India, are experiencing growth in the number of people participating in postsecondary education; the United States has fallen behind. While America needs to focus on increasing college access and degree completion among underrepresented ethnic minorities, particularly in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM, educators and policymakers assert that this is particularly important for African American males. Increasing matriculation and graduation rates for African Americans is not only a matter of equity, but in the context of STEM, it has major implications for the competitiveness of the United States in the global economy. This article identifies strategies that educators and policymakers can employ to promote the participation of African American males in college in general, particularly in STEM.

  5. Assessing Agricultural Risks of Climate Change in the 21st Century in a Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.; Elliott, Joshua; Deryng, Delphine; Ruane, Alex C.; Mueller, Christoph; Arneth, Almut; Boote, Kenneth J.; Folberth, Christian; Glotter, Michael; Khabarov, Nikolay

    2014-01-01

    Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies.

  6. Birth weight and long-term overweight risk: systematic review and a meta-analysis including 643,902 persons from 66 studies and 26 countries globally.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karen Schellong

    Full Text Available Overweight is among the major challenging health risk factors. It has been claimed that birth weight, being a critical indicator of prenatal developmental conditions, is related to long-term overweight risk. In order to check this important assumption of developmental and preventive medicine, we performed a systematic review and comprehensive meta-analysis.Relevant studies published up to January 2011 that investigated the relation between birth weight and later risk of overweight were identified through literature searches using MEDLINE and EMBASE. For meta-analysis, 66 studies from 26 countries and five continents were identified to be eligible, including 643,902 persons aged 1 to 75 years. We constructed random-effects and fixed-effects models, performed subgroup-analyses, influence-analyses, assessed heterogeneity and publication bias, performed meta-regression analysis as well as analysis of confounder adjusted data. Meta-regression revealed a linear positive relationship between birth weight and later overweight risk (p4,000 g was associated with increased risk of overweight (OR=1.66; 95% CI 1.55-1.77. Results did not change significantly by using normal birth weight (2,500-4,000 g as reference category (OR=0.73, 95% CI 0.63-0.84, and OR=1.60, 95% CI 1.45-1.77, respectively. Subgroup- and influence-analyses revealed no indication for bias/confounding. Adjusted estimates indicate a doubling of long-term overweight risk in high as compared to normal birth weight subjects (OR=1.96, 95% CI 1.43-2.67.Findings demonstrate that low birth weight is followed by a decreased long-term risk of overweight, while high birth weight predisposes for later overweight. Preventing in-utero overnutrition, e.g., by avoiding maternal overnutrition, overweight and/or diabetes during pregnancy, might therefore be a promising strategy of genuine overweight prevention, globally.

  7. Potential impact of the global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Willian Bucker Moraes

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Rust, caused by Puccinia psidii, is one of the most important diseases affecting eucalyptus in Brazil. This pathogen causes disease in mini-clonal garden and in young plants in the field, especially in leaves and juvenile shoots. Favorable climate conditions for infection by this pathogen in eucalyptus include temperature between 18 and 25 ºC, together with at least 6-hour leaf wetness periods, for 5 to 7 consecutive days. Considering the interaction between the environment and the pathogen, this study aimed to evaluate the potential impact of global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil. Thus, monthly maps of the areas of risk for the occurrence of this disease were elaborated, considering the current climate conditions, based on a historic series between 1961 and 1990, and the future scenarios A2 and B2, predicted by IPCC. The climate conditions were classified into three categories, according to the potential risk for the disease occurrence, considering temperature (T and air relative humidity (RH: i high risk (18 90%; ii medium risk (18 25 ºC and RH > 90%; and iii low risk (T 25 ºC and RH < 90%. Data about the future climate scenarios were supplied by GCM Change Fields. In this study, the simulation model Hadley Centers for Climate Prediction and Research (HadCm3 was adopted, using the software Idrisi 32. The obtained results led to the conclusion that there will be a reduction in the area favorable to eucalyptus rust occurrence, and such a reduction will be gradual for the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080 but more marked in scenario A2 than in B2. However, it is important to point out that extensive areas will still be favorable to the disease development, especially in the coldest months of the year, i.e., June and July. Therefore, the zoning of areas and periods of higher occurrence risk, considering the global climate changes, becomes important knowledge for the

  8. The global cardiovascular risk transition: associations of four metabolic risk factors with national income, urbanization, and Western diet in 1980 and 2008

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Danaei, Goodarz; Singh, Gitanjali M.; Paciorek, Christopher J.; Lin, John K.; Cowan, Melanie J.; Finucane, Mariel M.; Farzadfar, Farshad; Stevens, Gretchen A.; Riley, Leanne M.; Lu, Yuan; Rao, Mayuree; Ezzati, Majid; Aamodt, Geir; Abdeen, Ziad; Abdella, Nabila A.; Rahim, Hanan F. Abdul; Addo, Juliet; Aekplakorn, Wichai; Afifi, Mustafa M.; Agabiti-Rosei, Enrico; Aguilar Salinas, Carlos A.; Agyemang, Charles; Ali, Mohamed M.; Al-Nsour, Mohannad; Al-Nuaim, Abdul R.; Ambady, Ramachandran; Aro, Pertti; Azizi, Fereidoun; Barbagallo, Carlo M.; Barbieri, Marco Antonio M.; Barceló, Alberto; Barreto, Sandhi M.; Barros, Henrique; Bautista, Leonelo E.; Benetos, Athanase; Bjerregaard, Peter; Björkelund, Cecilia; Bo, Simona; Bobak, Martin; Bonora, Enzo; Bontha, Babu V.; Botana, Manuel A.; Bovet, Pascal; Breckenkamp, Juergen; Breteler, Monique M.; Broda, Grazyna; Brown, Ian J.; Bursztyn, Michael; Cabrera de León, Antonio; Campos, Hannia

    2013-01-01

    It is commonly assumed that cardiovascular disease risk factors are associated with affluence and Westernization. We investigated the associations of body mass index (BMI), fasting plasma glucose, systolic blood pressure, and serum total cholesterol with national income, Western diet, and, for BMI,

  9. GLOBAL OR NATIONAL BRANDS?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sorina GÎRBOVEANU

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Today, branding is such a strong force that hardly anything goes unbranded. Branding in global markets poses several challenges to the marketers. A key decision is the choice between global and nationals brands. This article gives the answers to the questions: what is, what is need for, what are the advantages, costs and risks of global and national brands? All go to the following conclusion: use global brands where possible and national brands where necessary.

  10. Impact of Dietary and Metabolic Risk Factors on Cardiovascular and Diabetes Mortality in South Asia: Analysis From the 2010 Global Burden of Disease Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yakoob, Mohammad Y; Micha, Renata; Khatibzadeh, Shahab; Singh, Gitanjali M; Shi, Peilin; Ahsan, Habibul; Balakrishna, Nagalla; Brahmam, Ginnela N V; Chen, Yu; Afshin, Ashkan; Fahimi, Saman; Danaei, Goodarz; Powles, John W; Ezzati, Majid; Mozaffarian, Dariush

    2016-12-01

    To quantify cardiovascular disease and diabetes deaths attributable to dietary and metabolic risks by country, age, sex, and time in South Asian countries. We used the 2010 Global Burden of Disease national surveys to characterize risk factor levels by age and sex. We derived etiological effects of risk factors-disease endpoints, by age, from meta-analyses. We defined optimal levels. We combined these inputs with cause-specific mortality rates to compute population-attributable fractions as a percentage of total cardiometabolic deaths. Suboptimal diet was the leading cause of cardiometabolic mortality in 4 of 5 countries, with population-attributable fractions from 40.7% (95% uncertainty interval = 37.4, 44.1) in Bangladesh to 56.9% (95% uncertainty interval = 52.4, 61.5) in Pakistan. High systolic blood pressure was the second leading cause, except in Bangladesh, where it superseded suboptimal diet. This was followed in all nations by high fasting plasma glucose, low fruit intake, and low whole grain intake. Other prominent burdens were more variable, such as low intake of vegetables, low omega-3 fats, and high sodium intake in India, Nepal, and Pakistan. Important similarities and differences are evident in cardiometabolic mortality burdens of modifiable dietary and metabolic risks across these countries, informing health policy and program priorities.

  11. The adjusted Global AntiphosPholipid Syndrome Score (aGAPSS) for risk stratification in young APS patients with acute myocardial infarction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radin, M; Schreiber, K; Costanzo, P; Cecchi, I; Roccatello, D; Baldovino, S; Bazzan, M; Cuadrado, M J; Sciascia, S

    2017-08-01

    Young adults with acute myocardial infarction are a critical group to examine for the purpose of risk factor stratification and modification. In this study we aimed to assess the clinical utility of the adjusted Global AntiphosPholipid Syndrome Score (aGAPSS) for the risk stratification of acute myocardial infarction in a cohort of young patients with antiphospholipid syndrome (APS). The analysis included 83 consecutive APS patients (≤50years old) who presented with arterial or venous thromboembolic events. Data on cardiovascular risk factors and antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL) positivity were retrospectively collected. The aGAPSS was calculated by adding the points corresponding to the risk factors, based on a linear transformation derived from the ß-regression coefficient as follows: 3 for hyperlipidaemia, 1 for arterial hypertension, 5 for aCL IgG/IgM, 4 for anti-b2 glycoprotein I IgG/IgM and 4 for LA. Higher aGAPSS values were observed in patients with acute myocardial infarction when compared to the others [mean aGAPSS 11.9 (S.D. 4.15, range 4-18) Vs. mean aGAPSS 9.2 (S.D. 5.1, range 1-17); T test: psyndrome compared to patients with a history of peripheral or cerebrovascular arterial thrombotic events [mean aGAPSS 11.9 (S.D. 4.15, range 4-18) Vs. mean aGAPSS 6.7 (S.D. 5.7, range 1-17); T test: P<0.005]. The aGAPSS is based upon a quantitative score and could aid risk stratifying APS patients younger than 50years for the likelihood of developing coronary thrombotic events and may guide pharmacological treatment for high-risk patients. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. South African Risk and Vulnerability Atlas: Understanding the Social & Environmental Implications of Global Change. 2nd edition

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Mambo, Julia

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The success of the first edition of the South African Risk and Vulnerability Atlas (SARVA), both as a publication and at COP17 (17th meeting of the ‘Conference of the Parties’ of the international treaty known as the United Nations Framework...

  13. Vulnerability and risk perception in the management of HIV/AIDS: Public priorities in a global pandemic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Tsasis

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Peter Tsasis1,2, N. Nirupama21School of Health Policy and Management, 2School of Administrative Studies, York University, Toronto, Ontario, CanadaAbstract: Understanding the way perception of risk is shaped and constructed is crucial in understanding why it has been so difficult to mitigate the spread of HIV/AIDS. This paper uses the Pressure and Release (PAR model, used to predict the onset of natural disasters as the conceptual framework. It substitutes vulnerability and risk perception as the trigger factors in the model, in making the case that HIV/AIDS can be characterized as a slow onset disaster. The implications are that vulnerability must be managed and reduced by addressing root causes, dynamic pressures, and unsafe conditions that contribute to the HIV/AIDS pandemic. HIV/AIDS programs must be culturally appropriate and work toward influencing risk perception, while addressing social norms and values that negatively impact vulnerable populations. By impacting cultural and social expectations, individuals will be able to more readily adopt safer sex behaviors. The development of policies and programs addressing the issues in context, as opposed to individual behaviors alone, allows for effective public health intervention. This may have implications for public health measures implemented for combating the spread of HIV/AIDS.Keywords: vulnerability, risk perception, HIV/AIDS, public health intervention

  14. IRSN opinion survey - The perception of risks and security by the French population. Global results June 2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-06-01

    After having commented the most remarkable results (importance of the economic crisis as a major concern for French people before environmental concerns, an improved perception of industrial risks, the Fukushima accident is fading away but specific traces remain, expectations regarding nuclear energy), this report, illustrated by several graphs, presents and discusses the results of an annual opinion survey on the present concerns of French people (in the present society, for the environment, and as far as science is concerned), the opinion of French people on expertise (about who must control a risky installation, about the role and image of scientific experts, about the diffusion and sharing of scientific expertise, and about the perception of pluralistic structures), on the attitude of French people in front of 33 risk situations (risks to which French people feel exposed to, confidence of French people in authorities to protect them, the truth of information on hazards, the hierarchy of 33 situations according to three aspects and their relationship with installation acceptability). The fourth part addresses more particularly the nuclear sector: nuclear risk, ability and credibility of interveners, debate on energy transition. A last part addresses the perception of the Fukushima accident. Graphs notably present the evolution of opinions with respect to last year or over the past years

  15. Global and regional effects of potentially modifiable risk factors associated with acute stroke in 32 countries (INTERSTROKE)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    O'Donnell, Martin J; Chin, Siu Lim; Rangarajan, Sumathy

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Stroke is a leading cause of death and disability, especially in low-income and middle-income countries. We sought to quantify the importance of potentially modifiable risk factors for stroke in different regions of the world, and in key populations and primary pathological subtypes o...

  16. Role of Waterborne Pathogens in the Food Supply Chain: Implications to Risk Management with Local and Global Perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Microbial risk assessment (MRA) in the food industry is used to support HACCP – which largely focuses on bacterial pathogen control in processing foodstuffs Potential role of microbially-contaminated water used in food production is not as well understood Emergence...

  17. Niche-based modelling as a tool for predicting the risk of alien plant invasions at a global scale

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Thuiller, W.; Richardson, D. M.; Pyšek, Petr; Midgley, G. F.; Hughes, G. O.; Rouget, M.

    2005-01-01

    Roč. 11, - (2005), s. 2234-2250 ISSN 1354-1013 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA206/03/1216 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60050516 Keywords : bioclimatic modelling * biological invasions * risk assessment Subject RIV: EF - Botanics Impact factor: 4.075, year: 2005

  18. Risk of emergency medical treatment following consumption of cannabis or synthetic cannabinoids in a large global sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winstock, Adam; Lynskey, Michael; Borschmann, Rohan; Waldron, Jon

    2015-06-01

    Synthetic cannabinoids (SCs) have become increasingly popular in recent years. Diverse in chemical structure, many have been subjected to legislative regulation, but their availability and use persists. Often marketed to reflect their similar effects to cannabis, their use has been associated with a range of negative health effects. We sought to determine the relative risk of seeking emergency medical treatment (EMT) following use of SCs and natural cannabis. We utilized an anonymous online survey of drug use, obtaining data from 22,289 respondents. We calculated the relative risk of seeking EMT between the two substances using an estimate for days used in the past year. Thirty-seven cannabis users (0.2%) and 21 SC users (1.0%) had sought EMT during the past year following use. The relative risk associated with the use of SCs was 30 (95% CI 17.5-51.2) times higher than that associated with cannabis. Significantly more symptoms (p=0.03) were reported by respondents seeking treatment for SCs than for cannabis. Whilst these findings must be treated with caution, SCs potentially pose a greater risk to users' health than natural forms of cannabis. Regulation is unlikely to remove SCs from the market, so well-informed user-focused health promotion messages need to be crafted to discourage their use. © The Author(s) 2015.

  19. An Official American Thoracic Society Public Policy Statement : Novel Risk Factors and the Global Burden of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eisner, Mark D.; Anthonisen, Nicholas; Coultas, David; Kuenzli, Nino; Perez-Padilla, Rogelio; Postma, Dirkje; Romieu, Isabelle; Silverman, Edwin K.; Balmes, John R.

    2010-01-01

    Rationale: Although cigarette smoking is the most important cause of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), a substantial proportion of COPD cases cannot be explained by smoking alone. Objectives: To evaluate the risk factors for COPD besides personal cigarette smoking. Methods: We

  20. Estimating the value of a Country's built assets: investment-based exposure modelling for global risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniell, James; Pomonis, Antonios; Gunasekera, Rashmin; Ishizawa, Oscar; Gaspari, Maria; Lu, Xijie; Aubrecht, Christoph; Ungar, Joachim

    2017-04-01

    In order to quantify disaster risk, there is a demand and need for determining consistent and reliable economic value of built assets at national or sub national level exposed to natural hazards. The value of the built stock in the context of a city or a country is critical for risk modelling applications as it allows for the upper bound in potential losses to be established. Under the World Bank probabilistic disaster risk assessment - Country Disaster Risk Profiles (CDRP) Program and rapid post-disaster loss analyses in CATDAT, key methodologies have been developed that quantify the asset exposure of a country. In this study, we assess the complementary methods determining value of building stock through capital investment data vs aggregated ground up values based on built area and unit cost of construction analyses. Different approaches to modelling exposure around the world, have resulted in estimated values of built assets of some countries differing by order(s) of magnitude. Using the aforementioned methodology of comparing investment data based capital stock and bottom-up unit cost of construction values per square meter of assets; a suitable range of capital stock estimates for built assets have been created. A blind test format was undertaken to compare the two types of approaches from top-down (investment) and bottom-up (construction cost per unit), In many cases, census data, demographic, engineering and construction cost data are key for bottom-up calculations from previous years. Similarly for the top-down investment approach, distributed GFCF (Gross Fixed Capital Formation) data is also required. Over the past few years, numerous studies have been undertaken through the World Bank Caribbean and Central America disaster risk assessment program adopting this methodology initially developed by Gunasekera et al. (2015). The range of values of the building stock is tested for around 15 countries. In addition, three types of costs - Reconstruction cost

  1. Fall risk and prevention needs assessment in an older adult Latino population: a model community global health partnership.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanlin, Erin R; Delgado-Rendón, Angélica; Lerner, E Brooke; Hargarten, Stephen; Farías, René

    2013-01-01

    The impact of falls in older adults presents a significant public health burden. Fall risk is not well-described in Latino populations nor have fall prevention programs considered the needs of this population. The objectives of this study were to develop a needs assessment of falls in older adult Latinos at a community center (CC), determine fall prevention barriers and strengths in this population, determine the level of interest in various fall prevention methods, and provide medical students an opportunity for participation in a culturally diverse community project. A cross-sectional survey was conducted with a convenience sample of older adult program participants. The survey was developed in collaboration with both partners. CC participants were approached by the interviewer and asked to participate. They were read the survey in their preferred language and their answers were recorded. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics. We conducted 103 interviews. We found that 54% of participants had fallen in the last year, and of those 21% required medical care, 81% were afraid of falling again, and 66% considered themselves at risk for falling again. Of all respondents, 52% had 5 or more of the 10 surveyed risk factors for falling; 4% had no risk factors. Of all respondents, 75% were afraid of falling. Talking with health care providers and participating in an exercise class were the preferred methods of health information delivery (78% and 65%, respectively). Older adult Latinos in this selected population frequently fall and are worried about falling. Risk factors are prevalent. A fall prevention program is warranted and should include exercise classes and a connection with local primary care providers. A partnership between an academic organization and a CC is an ideal collaboration for the future development of prevention program.

  2. Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Stephen R.; Hudgens, Michael G.; Brookhart, M. Alan; Westreich, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    The epidemiologist primarily studies transitions between states of health and disease. The purpose of the present article is to define a foundational parameter for such studies, namely risk. We begin simply and build to the setting in which there is more than 1 event type (i.e., competing risks or competing events), as well as more than 1 treatment or exposure level of interest. In the presence of competing events, the risks are a set of counterfactual cumulative incidence functions for each treatment. These risks can be depicted visually and summarized numerically. We use an example from the study of human immunodeficiency virus to illustrate concepts. PMID:25660080

  3. Cardiovascular Disease Burden: Evolving Knowledge of Risk Factors in Myocardial Infarction and Stroke through Population-Based Research and Perspectives in Global Prevention

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GUSTAVO B.F. OLIVEIRA

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Current knowledge and research perspectives on the top ranking causes of mortality worldwide, i.e., ischemic heart disease and cerebrovascular diseases have developed rapidly. In fact, until recently, it was considered that only half of the myocardial infarctions were due to traditional risk factors such as hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, smoking and diabetes. In addition, most of the available evidence of incidence, risk factors, and clinical outcomes, if not all of it, was derived from studies conducted in developed countries, which included lower proportion of female individuals and with low ethnic diversity. Recent reports by the WHO have provided striking public health information, i.e., the global burden of cardiovascular mortality for the next decades is expected to predominantly occur among developing countries. Therefore, multi-ethnic population-based research including prospective cohorts and, when appropriate, case-control studies, is warranted. These studies should be specifically designed to ascertain key public health measures such as geographic variations in noncommunicable diseases, diagnosis of traditional and potential newly discovered risk factors, causes of death and disability, and gaps for improvement in healthcare prevention (both primary and secondary and specific treatments. As an example, a multinational, multiethnic population-based cohort study is the Prospective Urban and Rural Epidemiology (PURE study, which is the largest global initiative of 150,000 adults aged 35-70 yrs, looking at environmental, societal and biological influences on obesity and chronic health conditions such as ischemic heart disease, stroke and cancer among urban and rural communities in low-, middle-, and high-income countries, with national, community, household and individual-level data. Implementation of population-based strategies is crucial to optimizing limited health system resources while improving care and cardiovascular morbidity

  4. Which global stock indices trigger stronger contagion risk in the Vietnamese stock market? Evidence using a bivariate analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Wang Kuan-Min; Lai Hung-Cheng

    2013-01-01

    This paper extends recent investigations into risk contagion effects on stock markets to the Vietnamese stock market. Daily data spanning October 9, 2006 to May 3, 2012 are sourced to empirically validate the contagion effects between stock markets in Vietnam, and China, Japan, Singapore, and the US. To facilitate the validation of contagion effects with market-related coefficients, this paper constructs a bivariate EGARCH model of dynamic conditional correlation coefficients. Using the...

  5. A global view on ARAMIS, a risk assessment methodology for industries in the framework of the SEVESO II directive

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salvi, Olivier; Debray, Bruno

    2006-01-01

    The ARAMIS methodology was developed in an European project co-funded in the fifth Framework Programme of the European Commission with the objective to answer the specific requirements of the SEVESO II directive. It offers an alternative to purely deterministic and probabilistic approaches to risk assessment of process plants. It also answers the needs of the various stakeholders interested by the results of the risk assessment for land use or emergency planning, enforcement or, more generally, public decision-making. The methodology is divided into the following major steps: identification of major accident hazards (MIMAH), identification of the safety barriers and assessment of their performances, evaluation of safety management efficiency to barrier reliability, identification of reference accident scenarios (MIRAS), assessment and mapping of the risk severity of reference scenarios and of the vulnerability of the plant surroundings. The methodology was tested during five case studies, which provided useful information about the applicability of the method and, by identifying the most sensitive parts of it opened way to new research activity for an improved industrial safety

  6. Comparison between frailty index of deficit accumulation and phenotypic model to predict risk of falls: data from the global longitudinal study of osteoporosis in women (GLOW Hamilton cohort.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guowei Li

    Full Text Available To compare the predictive accuracy of the frailty index (FI of deficit accumulation and the phenotypic frailty (PF model in predicting risks of future falls, fractures and death in women aged ≥55 years.Based on the data from the Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW 3-year Hamilton cohort (n = 3,985, we compared the predictive accuracy of the FI and PF in risks of falls, fractures and death using three strategies: (1 investigated the relationship with adverse health outcomes by increasing per one-fifth (i.e., 20% of the FI and PF; (2 trichotomized the FI based on the overlap in the density distribution of the FI by the three groups (robust, pre-frail and frail which were defined by the PF; (3 categorized the women according to a predicted probability function of falls during the third year of follow-up predicted by the FI. Logistic regression models were used for falls and death, while survival analyses were conducted for fractures.The FI and PF agreed with each other at a good level of consensus (correlation coefficients ≥ 0.56 in all the three strategies. Both the FI and PF approaches predicted adverse health outcomes significantly. The FI quantified the risks of future falls, fractures and death more precisely than the PF. Both the FI and PF discriminated risks of adverse outcomes in multivariable models with acceptable and comparable area under the curve (AUCs for falls (AUCs ≥ 0.68 and death (AUCs ≥ 0.79, and c-indices for fractures (c-indices ≥ 0.69 respectively.The FI is comparable with the PF in predicting risks of adverse health outcomes. These findings may indicate the flexibility in the choice of frailty model for the elderly in the population-based settings.

  7. Comparison between frailty index of deficit accumulation and phenotypic model to predict risk of falls: data from the global longitudinal study of osteoporosis in women (GLOW) Hamilton cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Guowei; Thabane, Lehana; Ioannidis, George; Kennedy, Courtney; Papaioannou, Alexandra; Adachi, Jonathan D

    2015-01-01

    To compare the predictive accuracy of the frailty index (FI) of deficit accumulation and the phenotypic frailty (PF) model in predicting risks of future falls, fractures and death in women aged ≥55 years. Based on the data from the Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW) 3-year Hamilton cohort (n = 3,985), we compared the predictive accuracy of the FI and PF in risks of falls, fractures and death using three strategies: (1) investigated the relationship with adverse health outcomes by increasing per one-fifth (i.e., 20%) of the FI and PF; (2) trichotomized the FI based on the overlap in the density distribution of the FI by the three groups (robust, pre-frail and frail) which were defined by the PF; (3) categorized the women according to a predicted probability function of falls during the third year of follow-up predicted by the FI. Logistic regression models were used for falls and death, while survival analyses were conducted for fractures. The FI and PF agreed with each other at a good level of consensus (correlation coefficients ≥ 0.56) in all the three strategies. Both the FI and PF approaches predicted adverse health outcomes significantly. The FI quantified the risks of future falls, fractures and death more precisely than the PF. Both the FI and PF discriminated risks of adverse outcomes in multivariable models with acceptable and comparable area under the curve (AUCs) for falls (AUCs ≥ 0.68) and death (AUCs ≥ 0.79), and c-indices for fractures (c-indices ≥ 0.69) respectively. The FI is comparable with the PF in predicting risks of adverse health outcomes. These findings may indicate the flexibility in the choice of frailty model for the elderly in the population-based settings.

  8. Wine: the increasing risk of a highly vulnerable industry globally to natural disasters and climate change (NH Division Outstanding ECS Award Lecture)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniell, James E.; Daniell, Trevor M.; Daniell, Katherine A.; Wenzel, Friedemann; Schäfer, Andreas M.; Kunz, Michael; Kunz-Plapp, Tina; Khazai, Bijan; Girard, Trevor; Burford, Robert

    2017-04-01

    Globally, well over 10 trillion in economic losses and over 10 million deaths can be attributed directly to natural disaster events from floods, earthquakes, storms, volcanoes and climatic effects historically (CATDAT - Daniell et al., 2016). When looking at the most vulnerable industries to natural disasters for each dollar invested the wine industry rates very highly, thus showing the risky and vulnerable nature of the wine business. Some effects of climate change will be shifting climates so that new grape growing areas are discovered and some traditional locations will require a change of grape variety to be planted, or will unsatisfactory for quality grape production. As new grape types are developed, some other grape types will become less viable leading to a global shift relative to the current state of the industry. The wine industry has been shown to have major losses via sudden shocks such as earthquakes in Chile (2010), Christchurch (2011) and Napa (2014) and hail through Burgundy (2012-2014). Wineries are often prone to other major disasters such as flood, storms, frost, fire or disease causing structural failure of assets, and significant production losses. Natural and man-made disasters play a key role in wine industry losses, and the variability of seasonal shifts and sudden natural shocks can often play a major role in the lifecycle and indeed the lifetime of wineries. Lessons learnt from winery disasters and climate impacts in Australia, Chile, New Zealand and USA are used as well as a comparison with those in Europe and other vulnerable centralised industries, such as cheese in Italy (2012 earthquake). For various natural disasters the structural engineering issues associated with wineries are examined with respect to infrastructure such as elevated steel tanks, as well as the importance of planning for earthquakes. The potential risk mitigation solutions are often simple to implement and are cost-effective in reducing significantly the risk

  9. Which global stock indices trigger stronger contagion risk in the Vietnamese stock market? Evidence using a bivariate analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Kuan-Min

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper extends recent investigations into risk contagion effects on stock markets to the Vietnamese stock market. Daily data spanning October 9, 2006 to May 3, 2012 are sourced to empirically validate the contagion effects between stock markets in Vietnam, and China, Japan, Singapore, and the US. To facilitate the validation of contagion effects with market-related coefficients, this paper constructs a bivariate EGARCH model of dynamic conditional correlation coefficients. Using the correlation contagion test and Dungey et al.’s (2005 contagion test, we find contagion effects between the Vietnamese and four other stock markets, namely Japan, Singapore, China, and the US. Second, we show that the Japanese stock market causes stronger contagion risk in the Vietnamese stock market compared to the stock markets of China, Singapore, and the US. Finally, we show that the Chinese and US stock markets cause weaker contagion effects in the Vietnamese stock market because of stronger interdependence effects between the former two markets.

  10. Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barshi, Immanuel

    2016-01-01

    Speaking up, i.e. expressing ones concerns, is a critical piece of effective communication. Yet, we see many situations in which crew members have concerns and still remain silent. Why would that be the case? And how can we assess the risks of speaking up vs. the risks of keeping silent? And once we do make up our minds to speak up, how should we go about it? Our workshop aims to answer these questions, and to provide us all with practical tools for effective risk assessment and effective speaking-up strategies..

  11. A Data-Driven Evaluation of the Stop TB Global Partnership Strategy of Targeting Key Populations at Greater Risk for Tuberculosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zoë M McLaren

    Full Text Available Identifying those infected with tuberculosis (TB is an important component of any strategy for reducing TB transmission and population prevalence. The Stop TB Global Partnership recently launched an initiative with a focus on key populations at greater risk for TB infection or poor clinical outcomes, due to housing and working conditions, incarceration, low household income, malnutrition, co-morbidities, exposure to tobacco and silica dust, or barriers to accessing medical care. To achieve operational targets, the global health community needs effective, low cost, and large-scale strategies for identifying key populations. Using South Africa as a test case, we assess the feasibility and effectiveness of targeting active case finding to populations with TB risk factors identified from regularly collected sources of data. Our approach is applicable to all countries with TB testing and census data. It allows countries to tailor their outreach activities to the particular risk factors of greatest significance in their national context.We use a national database of TB test results to estimate municipality-level TB infection prevalence, and link it to Census data to measure population risk factors for TB including rates of urban households, informal settlements, household income, unemployment, and mobile phone ownership. To examine the relationship between TB prevalence and risk factors, we perform linear regression analysis and plot the set of population characteristics against TB prevalence and TB testing rate by municipality. We overlay lines of best fit and smoothed curves of best fit from locally weighted scatter plot smoothing.Higher TB prevalence is statistically significantly associated with more urban municipalities (slope coefficient β1 = 0.129, p < 0.0001, R2 = 0.133, lower mobile phone access (β1 = -0.053, p < 0.001, R2 = 0.089, lower unemployment rates (β1 = -0.020, p = 0.003, R2 = 0.048, and a lower proportion of low-income households

  12. Birth Weight and Long-Term Overweight Risk: Systematic Review and a Meta-Analysis Including 643,902 Persons from 66 Studies and 26 Countries Globally

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    Harder, Thomas; Plagemann, Andreas

    2012-01-01

    Background Overweight is among the major challenging health risk factors. It has been claimed that birth weight, being a critical indicator of prenatal developmental conditions, is related to long-term overweight risk. In order to check this important assumption of developmental and preventive medicine, we performed a systematic review and comprehensive meta-analysis. Methods and Findings Relevant studies published up to January 2011 that investigated the relation between birth weight and later risk of overweight were identified through literature searches using MEDLINE and EMBASE. For meta-analysis, 66 studies from 26 countries and five continents were identified to be eligible, including 643,902 persons aged 1 to 75 years. We constructed random-effects and fixed-effects models, performed subgroup-analyses, influence-analyses, assessed heterogeneity and publication bias, performed meta-regression analysis as well as analysis of confounder adjusted data. Meta-regression revealed a linear positive relationship between birth weight and later overweight risk (poverweight (odds ratio (OR) = 0.67; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.59–0.76). High birth weight (>4,000 g) was associated with increased risk of overweight (OR = 1.66; 95% CI 1.55–1.77). Results did not change significantly by using normal birth weight (2,500–4,000 g) as reference category (OR = 0.73, 95% CI 0.63–0.84, and OR = 1.60, 95% CI 1.45–1.77, respectively). Subgroup- and influence-analyses revealed no indication for bias/confounding. Adjusted estimates indicate a doubling of long-term overweight risk in high as compared to normal birth weight subjects (OR = 1.96, 95% CI 1.43–2.67). Conclusions Findings demonstrate that low birth weight is followed by a decreased long-term risk of overweight, while high birth weight predisposes for later overweight. Preventing in-utero overnutrition, e.g., by avoiding maternal overnutrition, overweight and/or diabetes during pregnancy

  13. Global mining risk footprint of critical metals necessary for low-carbon technologies: the case of neodymium, cobalt, and platinum in Japan.

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    Nansai, Keisuke; Nakajima, Kenichi; Kagawa, Shigemi; Kondo, Yasushi; Shigetomi, Yosuke; Suh, Sangwon

    2015-02-17

    Meeting the 2-degree global warming target requires wide adoption of low-carbon energy technologies. Many such technologies rely on the use of precious metals, however, increasing the dependence of national economies on these resources. Among such metals, those with supply security concerns are referred to as critical metals. Using the Policy Potential Index developed by the Fraser Institute, this study developed a new footprint indicator, the mining risk footprint (MRF), to quantify the mining risk directly and indirectly affecting a national economy through its consumption of critical metals. We formulated the MRF as a product of the material footprint (MF) of the consuming country and the mining risks of the countries where the materials are mined. A case study was conducted for the 2005 Japanese economy to determine the MF and MRF for three critical metals essential for emerging energy technologies: neodymium, cobalt and platinum. The results indicate that in 2005 the MFs generated by Japanese domestic final demand, that is, the consumption-based metal output of Japan, were 1.0 × 10(3) t for neodymium, 9.4 × 10(3) t for cobalt, and 2.1 × 10 t for platinum. Export demand contributes most to the MF, accounting for 3.0 × 10(3) t, 1.3 × 10(5) t, and 3.1 × 10 t, respectively. The MRFs of Japanese total final demand (domestic plus export) were calculated to be 1.7 × 10 points for neodymium, 4.5 × 10(-2) points for cobalt, and 5.6 points for platinum, implying that the Japanese economy is incurring a high mining risk through its use of neodymium. This country's MRFs are all dominated by export demand. The paper concludes by discussing the policy implications and future research directions for measuring the MFs and MRFs of critical metals. For countries poorly endowed with mineral resources, adopting low-carbon energy technologies may imply a shifting of risk from carbon resources to other natural resources, in particular critical metals, and a trade

  14. The Influence of Stratospheric Sulphate Aerosol Deployment on the Surface Air Temperature and the Risk of an Abrupt Global Warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roland von Glasow

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available We used the ‘Radiative-Convective Model of the Earth-atmosphere system’ (OGIM to investigate the cooling effects induced by sulphur injections into the stratosphere. The ensemble of numerical calculations was based on the A1B scenario from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES. Several geoengineered scenarios were analysed, including the abrupt interruption of these injections in different scenarios and at different dates. We focused on the surface air temperature (SAT anomalies induced by stratospheric sulphate aerosol generated in order to compensate future warming. Results show that continuous deployment of sulphur into the stratosphere could induce a lasting decrease in SAT. Retaining a constant aerosol loading equivalent to 6 TgS would delay the expected global warming by 53 years. Keeping the SAT constant in a context of increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs means that the aerosol loading needs to be increased by 1.9% annually. This would offset the effect of increasing GHG under the A1B scenario. A major focus of this study was on the heating rates of SAT that would arise in different scenarios in case of an abrupt cessation of sulphur injections into the stratosphere. Our model results show that heating rates after geoengineering interruption would be 15–28 times higher than in a case without geoengineering, with likely important consequences for life on Earth. Larger initial sulphate loadings induced more intense warming rates when the geoengineering was stopped at the same time. This implies that, if sulphate loading was increased to maintain constant SAT in the light of increasing GHG concentrations, the later the geoengineering interruption was to occur, the higher the heating rates would be. Consequently, geoengineering techniques like this should only be regarded as last-resort measures and require intense further research should they ever become necessary.

  15. Disruptions in adaptation of sudden-onset and slow-onset risks: insights from a local case in the Andes of Peru for global policies

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    Huggel, Christian; Carey, Mark; Frey, Holger; Jurt, Christine; Mechler, Reinhard; Motschmann, Alina; Vicuña, Luis

    2017-04-01

    against the management of sudden-onset risks, more specifically against the technical components of the flood early warning system, because they believed that rainfall measuring and data transmitting devices keep the rains away. The background of this extraordinary local action is complex and rooted, among other, in cultural and historical experiences, mistrust in political and scientific institutions and local power relations. This local case, however, is highly instructive for global climate change policy. It shows that locally perceived priorities in terms of risks can be in great contrast to scientific knowledge and policies with profound implications for adaptation to sudden-onset and slow-onset risks. In fact, there may be a need to re-think current adaptation strategies which is also highly relevant in the context of current discussions on loss and damage related to negative effects of climate change. Furthermore, while the case certainly underlines the need to closely engage with local communities it also indicates where the limits of adaptation may be hit.

  16. Correlation of global risk assessment with cardiovascular complications in patients with diabetes mellitus living in Puerto Rico.

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    Rodríguez-Vigil, Efraín; Rodríguez-Chacón, Migdalia; Ruiz Valcarcel, José J

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this study was to assess the current relationship between certain demographics and chemical factors, and the risk of cardiovascular complications, within a Puerto Rican population with diabetes mellitus. A total of 2075 patients with diabetes mellitus were retrospectively evaluated to determine the influence of certain demographics and chemical variables on the appearance of cardiovascular complications. A group of demographic and laboratory variables were analyzed. Our sample was obtained, based on convenience, from an endocrinologist's office in an area of about 250 000 people. All the patients met the American Diabetes Association (ADA) definitions for diabetes mellitus. The study covered a time period of 8 years. The patients signed an informed consent document at their first office visit. Data were obtained by the endocrinologist in charge. We considered the demographic variables of sex, age, time with diabetes, lipid profile, metabolic control (measured with glycated hemoglobin levels), and microalbumin renal excretion. Cardiovascular complications were more prevalent in patients with poor metabolic control, those with prolonged disease duration, men, and patients who were more than 50 years of age. We found no relationship between cardiovascular disease, systolic blood pressure over 130 mm Hg, body mass index and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels over 100 mg/dL. In Puerto Rican patients with diabetes mellitus, there is a statistically significant relationship between patient's gender, age, disease duration, glycemic control and increased kidney microalbumin excretion with cardiovascular complications.

  17. Uranium from Africa - An overview on past and current mining activities: Re-appraising associated risks and chances in a global context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winde, Frank; Brugge, Doug; Nidecker, Andreas; Ruegg, Urs

    2017-05-01

    In 2003, nuclear power received renewed interest as a perceived climate-neutral way to meet high energy demands of large industrialized countries, such as China, India, Russia and the USA. It triggered a growing demand for uranium (U) as nuclear fuel. Dubbed the 'nuclear renaissance', the U-price rose over tenfold before the global credit crisis dampend the rush. Many efforts to capitalise on the renewed demand focused on Africa. This paper provides an overview on the type and extent of uranium mining, production and exploration on the African continent and discusses the economic benefits as well as the potential environmental and health risks and the long-term needs for remediation of legacy sites. The actual historical results of uranium mining activities in more than thirty African countries provide data against which to assess the existing risks of uranium development. The already existing uraniferous waste in several African countries threatens scarce water resources and the health of adjacent residents. Responsibility should rest with the governments and the companies to ensure that these threats are not realized.