WorldWideScience

Sample records for global pandemics increasing

  1. The Global Internet Pandemic

    Carter, Deborah Joy

    2009-01-01

    The global rise of Internet-based education is discussed in relation to models drawn from social studies and epidemiology. Experiential and data density models are highlighted, also the capacity for technological change, and phenomena observed in the spread of disease. The lesson of these illustrations is that even apparently permanent phenomena…

  2. Global Mortality Impact of the 1957-1959 Influenza Pandemic

    Viboud, Cécile; Simonsen, Lone; Fuentes, Rodrigo

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Quantitative estimates of the global burden of the 1957 influenza pandemic are lacking. Here we fill this gap by modeling historical mortality statistics. METHODS: We used annual rates of age- and cause-specific deaths to estimate pandemic-related mortality in excess of background...... levels in 39 countries in Europe, the Asia-Pacific region, and the Americas. We modeled the relationship between excess mortality and development indicators to extrapolate the global burden of the pandemic. RESULTS: The pandemic-associated excess respiratory mortality rate was 1.9/10,000 population (95...... excess deaths (95% CI, .7 million-1.5 million excess deaths) globally to the 1957-1959 pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: The global mortality rate of the 1957-1959 influenza pandemic was moderate relative to that of the 1918 pandemic but was approximately 10-fold greater than that of the 2009 pandemic. The impact...

  3. The Global Physical Inactivity Pandemic: An Analysis of Knowledge Production

    Piggin, Joe; Bairner, Alan

    2016-01-01

    In July 2012, "The Lancet" announced a pandemic of physical inactivity and a global call to action to effect change. The worldwide pandemic is said to be claiming millions of lives every year. Asserting that physical inactivity is pandemic is an important moment. Given the purported scale and significance of physical inactivity around…

  4. Increasing pandemic vaccination rates with effective communication.

    Henrich, Natalie J

    2011-06-01

    Communicating effectively with the public about the importance of vaccination during a pandemic poses a challenge to health communicators. The public's concerns about the safety, effectiveness and necessity of vaccines lead many people to refuse vaccination and the current communication strategies are often unsuccessful at overcoming the public's resistance to vaccinate. Convincing the public to receive a vaccination, especially during a pandemic when there can be so much uncertainty about the vaccine and the disease, requires a revised communication approach. This revised approach should integrate into messages information that the public identifies as important, as well as presenting messages in a way that is consistent with our evolved social learning biases. These biases will impact both the content of the message and who delivers the message to different target populations. Additionally, an improved understanding between media and health communicators about the role each plays during a crisis may increase the effectiveness of messages disseminated to the public. Lastly, given that the public is increasingly seeking health information from on-line and other electronic sources, health communication needs to continue to find ways to integrate new technologies into communication strategies.

  5. Economic optimization of a global strategy to address the pandemic threat.

    Pike, Jamison; Bogich, Tiffany; Elwood, Sarah; Finnoff, David C; Daszak, Peter

    2014-12-30

    Emerging pandemics threaten global health and economies and are increasing in frequency. Globally coordinated strategies to combat pandemics, similar to current strategies that address climate change, are largely adaptive, in that they attempt to reduce the impact of a pathogen after it has emerged. However, like climate change, mitigation strategies have been developed that include programs to reduce the underlying drivers of pandemics, particularly animal-to-human disease transmission. Here, we use real options economic modeling of current globally coordinated adaptation strategies for pandemic prevention. We show that they would be optimally implemented within 27 y to reduce the annual rise of emerging infectious disease events by 50% at an estimated one-time cost of approximately $343.7 billion. We then analyze World Bank data on multilateral "One Health" pandemic mitigation programs. We find that, because most pandemics have animal origins, mitigation is a more cost-effective policy than business-as-usual adaptation programs, saving between $344.0.7 billion and $360.3 billion over the next 100 y if implemented today. We conclude that globally coordinated pandemic prevention policies need to be enacted urgently to be optimally effective and that strategies to mitigate pandemics by reducing the impact of their underlying drivers are likely to be more effective than business as usual.

  6. Economic optimization of a global strategy to address the pandemic threat

    Pike, Jamison; Bogich, Tiffany; Elwood, Sarah; Finnoff, David C.; Daszak, Peter

    2014-01-01

    Emerging pandemics threaten global health and economies and are increasing in frequency. Globally coordinated strategies to combat pandemics, similar to current strategies that address climate change, are largely adaptive, in that they attempt to reduce the impact of a pathogen after it has emerged. However, like climate change, mitigation strategies have been developed that include programs to reduce the underlying drivers of pandemics, particularly animal-to-human disease transmission. Here, we use real options economic modeling of current globally coordinated adaptation strategies for pandemic prevention. We show that they would be optimally implemented within 27 y to reduce the annual rise of emerging infectious disease events by 50% at an estimated one-time cost of approximately $343.7 billion. We then analyze World Bank data on multilateral “One Health” pandemic mitigation programs. We find that, because most pandemics have animal origins, mitigation is a more cost-effective policy than business-as-usual adaptation programs, saving between $344.0.7 billion and $360.3 billion over the next 100 y if implemented today. We conclude that globally coordinated pandemic prevention policies need to be enacted urgently to be optimally effective and that strategies to mitigate pandemics by reducing the impact of their underlying drivers are likely to be more effective than business as usual. PMID:25512538

  7. How integration of global omics-data could help preparing for pandemics - a scent of influenza

    Bos, Lieuwe D. J.; de Jong, Menno D.; Sterk, Peter J.; Schultz, Marcus J.

    2014-01-01

    Pandemics caused by novel emerging or re-emerging infectious diseases could lead to high mortality and morbidity world-wide when left uncontrolled. In this perspective, we evaluate the possibility of integration of global omics-data in order to timely prepare for pandemics. Such an approach requires

  8. Preparing ICUs for pandemics.

    Gabriel, Lucinda E K; Webb, Steve A R

    2013-10-01

    Influenza pandemics occur intermittently and represent an existential global infectious diseases threat. The purpose of this review is to describe clinical and research preparedness for future pandemics. Pandemic influenza typically results in large numbers of individuals with life-threatening pneumonia requiring treatment in ICUs. Clinical preparedness of ICUs relates to planning to provide increased 'surge' capacity to meet increased demand and requires consideration of staffing, equipment and consumables, bed-space availability and management systems. Research preparedness is also necessary, as timely clinical research has the potential to change the trajectory of a pandemic. The clinical research response during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic was suboptimal. Better planning is necessary to optimize both clinical and research responses to future pandemics.

  9. "With human health it's a global thing": Canadian perspectives on ethics in the global governance of an influenza pandemic.

    Thompson, Alison K; Smith, Maxwell J; McDougall, Christopher W; Bensimon, Cécile; Perez, Daniel Felipe

    2015-03-01

    We live in an era where our health is linked to that of others across the globe, and nothing brings this home better than the specter of a pandemic. This paper explores the findings of town hall meetings associated with the Canadian Program of Research on Ethics in a Pandemic (CanPREP), in which focus groups met to discuss issues related to the global governance of an influenza pandemic. Two competing discourses were found to be at work: the first was based upon an economic rationality and the second upon a humanitarian rationality. The implications for public support and the long-term sustainability of new global norms, networks, and regulations in global public health are discussed.

  10. Public Health Control Measures in Response to Global Pandemics and Drug Resistance.

    Price, Polly J

    2015-01-01

    These teaching materials provide problem-based exercises exploring the specific powers of governments to implement control measures in response to communicable disease. Topics include global pandemic disease and, in the United States, legal issues in tuberculosis control. © 2015 American Society of Law, Medicine & Ethics, Inc.

  11. Global mortality estimates for the 2009 Influenza Pandemic from the GLaMOR project: a modeling study.

    Simonsen, Lone; Spreeuwenberg, Peter; Lustig, Roger; Taylor, Robert J; Fleming, Douglas M; Kroneman, Madelon; Van Kerkhove, Maria D; Mounts, Anthony W; Paget, W John

    2013-11-01

    Assessing the mortality impact of the 2009 influenza A H1N1 virus (H1N1pdm09) is essential for optimizing public health responses to future pandemics. The World Health Organization reported 18,631 laboratory-confirmed pandemic deaths, but the total pandemic mortality burden was substantially higher. We estimated the 2009 pandemic mortality burden through statistical modeling of mortality data from multiple countries. We obtained weekly virology and underlying cause-of-death mortality time series for 2005-2009 for 20 countries covering ∼35% of the world population. We applied a multivariate linear regression model to estimate pandemic respiratory mortality in each collaborating country. We then used these results plus ten country indicators in a multiple imputation model to project the mortality burden in all world countries. Between 123,000 and 203,000 pandemic respiratory deaths were estimated globally for the last 9 mo of 2009. The majority (62%-85%) were attributed to persons under 65 y of age. We observed a striking regional heterogeneity, with almost 20-fold higher mortality in some countries in the Americas than in Europe. The model attributed 148,000-249,000 respiratory deaths to influenza in an average pre-pandemic season, with only 19% in persons representation of low-income countries among single-country estimates and an inability to study subsequent pandemic waves (2010-2012). We estimate that 2009 global pandemic respiratory mortality was ∼10-fold higher than the World Health Organization's laboratory-confirmed mortality count. Although the pandemic mortality estimate was similar in magnitude to that of seasonal influenza, a marked shift toward mortality among persons Europe. A collaborative network to collect and analyze mortality and hospitalization surveillance data is needed to rapidly establish the severity of future pandemics. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

  12. Global nutrition transition and the pandemic of obesity in developing countries.

    Popkin, Barry M; Adair, Linda S; Ng, Shu Wen

    2012-01-01

    Decades ago, discussion of an impending global pandemic of obesity was thought of as heresy. But in the 1970s, diets began to shift towards increased reliance upon processed foods, increased away-from-home food intake, and increased use of edible oils and sugar-sweetened beverages. Reductions in physical activity and increases in sedentary behavior began to be seen as well. The negative effects of these changes began to be recognized in the early 1990s, primarily in low- and middle-income populations, but they did not become clearly acknowledged until diabetes, hypertension, and obesity began to dominate the globe. Now, rapid increases in the rates of obesity and overweight are widely documented, from urban and rural areas in the poorest countries of sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia to populations in countries with higher income levels. Concurrent rapid shifts in diet and activity are well documented as well. An array of large-scale programmatic and policy measures are being explored in a few countries; however, few countries are engaged in serious efforts to prevent the serious dietary challenges being faced. © 2012 International Life Sciences Institute.

  13. Protecting public health and global freight transportation systems during an influenza pandemic.

    Luke, Thomas C; Rodrigue, Jean-Paul

    2008-01-01

    The H5N1 influenza threat is resulting in global preparations for the next influenza pandemic. Pandemic influenza planners are prioritizing scarce vaccine, antivirals, and public health support for different segments of society. The freight, bulk goods, and energy transportation network comprise the maritime, rail, air, and trucking industries. It relies on small numbers of specialized workers who cannot be rapidly replaced if lost due to death, illness, or voluntary absenteeism. Because transportation networks link economies, provide critical infrastructures with working material, and supply citizens with necessary commodities, disrupted transportation systems can lead to cascading failures in social and economic systems. However, some pandemic influenza plans have assigned transportation workers a low priority for public health support, vaccine, and antivirals. The science of Transportation Geography demonstrates that transportation networks and workers are concentrated at, or funnel through, a small number of chokepoints and corridors. Chokepoints should be used to rapidly and efficiently vaccinate and prophylax the transportation worker cohort and to implement transmission prevention measures and thereby protect the ability to move goods. Nations, states, the transportation industry and unions, businesses, and other stakeholders must plan, resource, and exercise, and then conduct a transportation health assurance and security campaign for an influenza pandemic.

  14. NOW AND THEN: The Global Nutrition Transition: The Pandemic of Obesity in Developing Countries

    Popkin, Barry M.; Adair, Linda S.; Ng, Shu Wen

    2011-01-01

    Decades ago discussion of an impending global pandemic of obesity was thought of as heresy. Diets in the 1970’s began to shift toward increased reliance upon processed foods, increased away from home intake and greater use of edible oils and sugar-sweetened beverages. Reduced physical activity and increased sedentary time was seen also. These changes began in the early 1990-‘s in the low and middle income world but did not become clearly recognized until diabetes, hypertension and obesity began to dominate the globe. Urban and rural areas from sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia’s poorest countries to the higher income ones are shown to have experienced rapid increases in overweight and obesity status. Concurrent rapid shifts in diet and activity are documented. An array of large-scale programmatic and policy shifts are being explored in a few countries; however despite the major health challenges faced, few countries are serious in addressing prevention of the dietary challenges faced. PMID:22221213

  15. The global burden of diabetes and its complications: an emerging pandemic

    van Dieren, Susan; Beulens, Joline W. J.; van der Schouw, Yvonne T.; Grobbee, Diederick E.; Neal, Bruce

    2010-01-01

    The number of patients with type 2 diabetes is increasing rapidly in both developed and developing countries around the world. The emerging pandemic is driven by the combined effects of population ageing, rising levels of obesity and inactivity, and greater longevity among patients with diabetes

  16. The commercial marketing of healthy lifestyles to address the global child and adolescent obesity pandemic: prospects, pitfalls and priorities.

    Kraak, Vivica I; Kumanyika, Shiriki K; Story, Mary

    2009-11-01

    Public- and private-sector initiatives to promote healthy eating and physical activity, called 'healthy lifestyles', are a relatively recent response to the global obesity pandemic. The present paper explores different views about marketing healthy lifestyles with a special emphasis on private-sector initiatives and public-private partnerships designed to reach young people. We discuss aspects of these initiatives and partnerships from three perspectives: (i) the potential for commercial marketing practices to have a favourable influence on reversing global obesity trends (termed prospects); (ii) unresolved dilemmas and challenges that may hinder progress (termed pitfalls); and (iii) the implementation and evaluation of coordinated and systematic actions (termed priorities) that may increase the likelihood that commercially marketed healthy-lifestyle initiatives and public-private partnerships can make a positive contribution to reverse the rise in overweight and obesity among young people globally.

  17. Global mortality estimates for the 2009 Influenza Pandemic from the GLaMOR project: a modeling study.

    Lone Simonsen

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Assessing the mortality impact of the 2009 influenza A H1N1 virus (H1N1pdm09 is essential for optimizing public health responses to future pandemics. The World Health Organization reported 18,631 laboratory-confirmed pandemic deaths, but the total pandemic mortality burden was substantially higher. We estimated the 2009 pandemic mortality burden through statistical modeling of mortality data from multiple countries.We obtained weekly virology and underlying cause-of-death mortality time series for 2005-2009 for 20 countries covering ∼35% of the world population. We applied a multivariate linear regression model to estimate pandemic respiratory mortality in each collaborating country. We then used these results plus ten country indicators in a multiple imputation model to project the mortality burden in all world countries. Between 123,000 and 203,000 pandemic respiratory deaths were estimated globally for the last 9 mo of 2009. The majority (62%-85% were attributed to persons under 65 y of age. We observed a striking regional heterogeneity, with almost 20-fold higher mortality in some countries in the Americas than in Europe. The model attributed 148,000-249,000 respiratory deaths to influenza in an average pre-pandemic season, with only 19% in persons <65 y. Limitations include lack of representation of low-income countries among single-country estimates and an inability to study subsequent pandemic waves (2010-2012.We estimate that 2009 global pandemic respiratory mortality was ∼10-fold higher than the World Health Organization's laboratory-confirmed mortality count. Although the pandemic mortality estimate was similar in magnitude to that of seasonal influenza, a marked shift toward mortality among persons <65 y of age occurred, so that many more life-years were lost. The burden varied greatly among countries, corroborating early reports of far greater pandemic severity in the Americas than in Australia, New Zealand, and Europe. A

  18. Global Mortality Estimates for the 2009 Influenza Pandemic from the GLaMOR Project: A Modeling Study

    Simonsen, Lone; Spreeuwenberg, Peter; Lustig, Roger; Taylor, Robert J.; Fleming, Douglas M.; Kroneman, Madelon; Van Kerkhove, Maria D.; Mounts, Anthony W.; Paget, W. John

    2013-01-01

    Background Assessing the mortality impact of the 2009 influenza A H1N1 virus (H1N1pdm09) is essential for optimizing public health responses to future pandemics. The World Health Organization reported 18,631 laboratory-confirmed pandemic deaths, but the total pandemic mortality burden was substantially higher. We estimated the 2009 pandemic mortality burden through statistical modeling of mortality data from multiple countries. Methods and Findings We obtained weekly virology and underlying cause-of-death mortality time series for 2005–2009 for 20 countries covering ∼35% of the world population. We applied a multivariate linear regression model to estimate pandemic respiratory mortality in each collaborating country. We then used these results plus ten country indicators in a multiple imputation model to project the mortality burden in all world countries. Between 123,000 and 203,000 pandemic respiratory deaths were estimated globally for the last 9 mo of 2009. The majority (62%–85%) were attributed to persons under 65 y of age. We observed a striking regional heterogeneity, with almost 20-fold higher mortality in some countries in the Americas than in Europe. The model attributed 148,000–249,000 respiratory deaths to influenza in an average pre-pandemic season, with only 19% in persons mortality was ∼10-fold higher than the World Health Organization's laboratory-confirmed mortality count. Although the pandemic mortality estimate was similar in magnitude to that of seasonal influenza, a marked shift toward mortality among persons mortality and hospitalization surveillance data is needed to rapidly establish the severity of future pandemics. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:24302890

  19. Global Increases in Individualism.

    Santos, Henri C; Varnum, Michael E W; Grossmann, Igor

    2017-09-01

    Individualism appears to have increased over the past several decades, yet most research documenting this shift has been limited to the study of a handful of highly developed countries. Is the world becoming more individualist as a whole? If so, why? To answer these questions, we examined 51 years of data on individualist practices and values across 78 countries. Our findings suggest that individualism is indeed rising in most of the societies we tested. Despite dramatic shifts toward greater individualism around the world, however, cultural differences remain sizable. Moreover, cultural differences are primarily linked to changes in socioeconomic development, and to a lesser extent to shifts in pathogen prevalence and disaster frequency.

  20. Strategies for antiviral stockpiling for future influenza pandemics: a global epidemic-economic perspective.

    Carrasco, Luis R; Lee, Vernon J; Chen, Mark I; Matchar, David B; Thompson, James P; Cook, Alex R

    2011-09-07

    Influenza pandemics present a global threat owing to their potential mortality and substantial economic impacts. Stockpiling antiviral drugs to manage a pandemic is an effective strategy to offset their negative impacts; however, little is known about the long-term optimal size of the stockpile under uncertainty and the characteristics of different countries. Using an epidemic-economic model we studied the effect on total mortality and costs of antiviral stockpile sizes for Brazil, China, Guatemala, India, Indonesia, New Zealand, Singapore, the UK, the USA and Zimbabwe. In the model, antivirals stockpiling considerably reduced mortality. There was greater potential avoidance of expected costs in the higher resourced countries (e.g. from $55 billion to $27 billion over a 30 year time horizon for the USA) and large avoidance of fatalities in those less resourced (e.g. from 11.4 to 2.3 million in Indonesia). Under perfect allocation, higher resourced countries should aim to store antiviral stockpiles able to cover at least 15 per cent of their population, rising to 25 per cent with 30 per cent misallocation, to minimize fatalities and economic costs. Stockpiling is estimated not to be cost-effective for two-thirds of the world's population under current antivirals pricing. Lower prices and international cooperation are necessary to make the life-saving potential of antivirals cost-effective in resource-limited countries.

  1. Global warming without global mean precipitation increase?

    Salzmann, Marc

    2016-06-01

    Global climate models simulate a robust increase of global mean precipitation of about 1.5 to 2% per kelvin surface warming in response to greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. Here, it is shown that the sensitivity to aerosol cooling is robust as well, albeit roughly twice as large. This larger sensitivity is consistent with energy budget arguments. At the same time, it is still considerably lower than the 6.5 to 7% K(-1) decrease of the water vapor concentration with cooling from anthropogenic aerosol because the water vapor radiative feedback lowers the hydrological sensitivity to anthropogenic forcings. When GHG and aerosol forcings are combined, the climate models with a realistic 20th century warming indicate that the global mean precipitation increase due to GHG warming has, until recently, been completely masked by aerosol drying. This explains the apparent lack of sensitivity of the global mean precipitation to the net global warming recently found in observations. As the importance of GHG warming increases in the future, a clear signal will emerge.

  2. Global response to pandemic flu: more research needed on a critical front

    Lim Meng-Kin

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract If and when sustained human-to-human transmission of H5N1 becomes a reality, the world will no longer be dealing with sporadic avian flu borne along migratory flight paths of birds, but aviation flu – winged at subsonic speed along commercial air conduits to every corner of planet Earth. Given that air transportation is the one feature that most differentiates present day transmission scenarios from those in 1918, our present inability to prevent spread of influenza by international air travel, as reckoned by the World Health Organization, constitutes a major weakness in the current global preparedness plan against pandemic flu. Despite the lessons of SARS, it is surprising that aviation-related health policy options have not been more rigorously evaluated, or scientific research aimed at strengthening public health measures on the air transportation front, more energetically pursued.

  3. Possible explanations for why some countries were harder hit by the pandemic influenza virus in 2009 - a global mortality impact modeling study

    Morales, K.F.; Paget, J.; Spreeuwenberg, P.

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: A global pandemic mortality study found prominent regional mortality variations in 2009 for Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. Our study attempts to identify factors that explain why the pandemic mortality burden was high in some countries and low in others. METHODS: As a starting point, we

  4. The global obesity pandemic: shaped by global drivers and local environments.

    Swinburn, Boyd A; Sacks, Gary; Hall, Kevin D; McPherson, Klim; Finegood, Diane T; Moodie, Marjory L; Gortmaker, Steven L

    2011-08-27

    The simultaneous increases in obesity in almost all countries seem to be driven mainly by changes in the global food system, which is producing more processed, affordable, and effectively marketed food than ever before. This passive overconsumption of energy leading to obesity is a predictable outcome of market economies predicated on consumption-based growth. The global food system drivers interact with local environmental factors to create a wide variation in obesity prevalence between populations. Within populations, the interactions between environmental and individual factors, including genetic makeup, explain variability in body size between individuals. However, even with this individual variation, the epidemic has predictable patterns in subpopulations. In low-income countries, obesity mostly affects middle-aged adults (especially women) from wealthy, urban environments; whereas in high-income countries it affects both sexes and all ages, but is disproportionately greater in disadvantaged groups. Unlike other major causes of preventable death and disability, such as tobacco use, injuries, and infectious diseases, there are no exemplar populations in which the obesity epidemic has been reversed by public health measures. This absence increases the urgency for evidence-creating policy action, with a priority on reduction of the supply-side drivers. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Economic and policy implications of pandemic influenza.

    Smith, Braeton J.; Starks, Shirley J.; Loose, Verne W.; Brown, Theresa Jean; Warren, Drake E.; Vargas, Vanessa N.

    2010-03-01

    Pandemic influenza has become a serious global health concern; in response, governments around the world have allocated increasing funds to containment of public health threats from this disease. Pandemic influenza is also recognized to have serious economic implications, causing illness and absence that reduces worker productivity and economic output and, through mortality, robs nations of their most valuable assets - human resources. This paper reports two studies that investigate both the short- and long-term economic implications of a pandemic flu outbreak. Policy makers can use the growing number of economic impact estimates to decide how much to spend to combat the pandemic influenza outbreaks. Experts recognize that pandemic influenza has serious global economic implications. The illness causes absenteeism, reduced worker productivity, and therefore reduced economic output. This, combined with the associated mortality rate, robs nations of valuable human resources. Policy makers can use economic impact estimates to decide how much to spend to combat the pandemic influenza outbreaks. In this paper economists examine two studies which investigate both the short- and long-term economic implications of a pandemic influenza outbreak. Resulting policy implications are also discussed. The research uses the Regional Economic Modeling, Inc. (REMI) Policy Insight + Model. This model provides a dynamic, regional, North America Industrial Classification System (NAICS) industry-structured framework for forecasting. It is supported by a population dynamics model that is well-adapted to investigating macro-economic implications of pandemic influenza, including possible demand side effects. The studies reported in this paper exercise all of these capabilities.

  6. Hospital-based pandemic influenza preparedness and response: strategies to increase surge capacity.

    Scarfone, Richard J; Coffin, Susan; Fieldston, Evan S; Falkowski, Grace; Cooney, Mary G; Grenfell, Stephanie

    2011-06-01

    In the spring of 2009, the first patients infected with 2009 H1N1 virus were arriving for care in hospitals in the United States. Anticipating a second wave of infection, our hospital leaders initiated multidisciplinary planning activities to prepare to increase capacity by expansion of emergency department (ED) and inpatient functional space and redeployment of medical personnel. During the fall pandemic surge, this urban, tertiary-care children's hospital experienced a 48% increase in ED visits and a 12% increase in daily peak inpatient census. However, several strategies were effective in mitigating the pandemic's impact including using a portion of the hospital's lobby for ED waiting, using a subspecialty clinic and a 24-hour short stay unit to care for ED patients, and using physicians not board certified in pediatric emergency medicine and inpatient-unit medical nurses to care for ED patients. The average time patients waited to be seen by an ED physician and the proportion of children leaving the ED without being seen by a physician was less than for the period when seasonal influenza peaked in the winter of 2008-2009. Furthermore, the ED did not go on divert status, no elective medical or surgical admissions required cancellation, and there were no increases in serious patient safety events. Our health center successfully met the challenges posed by the 2009 H1N1 outbreak. The intent in sharing the details of our planning and experience is to allow others to determine which elements of this planning might be adapted for managing a surge of patients in their setting.

  7. Pandemic Flu

    ... Influenza Types Seasonal Avian Swine Variant Pandemic Other Pandemic Influenza Language: English (US) Español Recommend on Facebook ... Planning State and Local Government Planning More 1918 Pandemic Flu Commemoration 100 years later, read about the ...

  8. The Pandemic and its Impacts

    W. Qiu

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The Pandemic has a long history, but the term of “pandemic” is still not been defined by many medical texts. There have been many significant pandemics recorded in human history, and the pandemic related crises have caused enormous negative impacts on health, economies, and even national security in the world. This article will explore the literature for the concept and history of pandemics; summarises the key features of a pandemics, and discusses the negative impacts on health, economy, social and global security of pandemics and disease outbreaks.

  9. Pandemic risk: how large are the expected losses?

    Fan, Victoria Y; Jamison, Dean T; Summers, Lawrence H

    2018-02-01

    There is an unmet need for greater investment in preparedness against major epidemics and pandemics. The arguments in favour of such investment have been largely based on estimates of the losses in national incomes that might occur as the result of a major epidemic or pandemic. Recently, we extended the estimate to include the valuation of the lives lost as a result of pandemic-related increases in mortality. This produced markedly higher estimates of the full value of loss that might occur as the result of a future pandemic. We parametrized an exceedance probability function for a global influenza pandemic and estimated that the expected number of influenza-pandemic-related deaths is about 720 000 per year. We calculated that the expected annual losses from pandemic risk to be about 500 billion United States dollars - or 0.6% of global income - per year. This estimate falls within - but towards the lower end of - the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's estimates of the value of the losses from global warming, which range from 0.2% to 2% of global income. The estimated percentage of annual national income represented by the expected value of losses varied by country income grouping: from a little over 0.3% in high-income countries to 1.6% in lower-middle-income countries. Most of the losses from influenza pandemics come from rare, severe events.

  10. Globalization, Public Policy, and "Knowledge Gap": Ethiopian Youth and the HIV/AIDS Pandemic

    Fetene, Getnet Tizazu; Dimitriadis, Greg

    2010-01-01

    Set against trans- or supra-national policy initiatives which have framed the HIV/AIDS pandemic as in part a pedagogical issue, this paper critically explores local understandings of sexual practices (generally) as well as of HIV/AIDS (more specifically) among young people in the sub-Saharan African country of Ethiopia. Ethiopia has the third…

  11. Forecasting techno-social systems: how physics and computing help to fight off global pandemics

    Vespignani, Alessandro

    2010-03-01

    The crucial issue when planning for adequate public health interventions to mitigate the spread and impact of epidemics is risk evaluation and forecast. This amount to the anticipation of where, when and how strong the epidemic will strike. In the last decade advances in performance in computer technology, data acquisition, statistical physics and complex networks theory allow the generation of sophisticated simulations on supercomputer infrastructures to anticipate the spreading pattern of a pandemic. For the first time we are in the position of generating real time forecast of epidemic spreading. I will review the history of the current H1N1 pandemic, the major road-blocks the community has faced in its containment and mitigation and how physics and computing provide predictive tools that help us to battle epidemics.

  12. Global Emerging Infection Surveillance and Response (GEIS)- Avian Influenza Pandemic Influenza (AI/PI) Program

    2014-10-01

    KEMRI operated reference laboratories for this work in Nairobi, Kericho, and Kisumu, including the arbovirus reference laboratory, the antimalarial ...in military and civilian populations, and monitor the pattern of antimalarial resistance across Kenya. 15. SUBJECT TERMS NOTHING LISTED 16...confirms our earlier assertion that as we progress away from the H1N1 pandemic, we have noticed a decline in influenza activity suggesting that the high

  13. Responses to the global HIV and AIDS pandemic: a study of the role of faith-based organisations in Lesotho.

    Olowu, Dejo

    2015-01-01

    This article attempts to establish the key contribution by people of faith to the global HIV pandemic response, using Lesotho as a case study. Particular focus is paid to the work of selected religious organisations in Lesotho in this context, assessing their capacities to coordinate an effective HIV and AIDS action at the grassroots levels through education, health care, development, and social service activities. Empirical evaluations and findings regarding the level and quality of faith-based engagement in this field establish the basic premise of this article, namely, that faith-based organisations are contributing energy, expertise, and experience in order to achieve the commitment of the global commitment to advance universal access to HIV prevention, treatment, and support. Although the article is particularly focused on the Lesotho context, its tremendous implications for simulated studies and approaches across Sub-Saharan Africa are accentuated.

  14. Global mortality estimates for the 2009 Influenza Pandemic from the GLaMOR project: a modeling study

    Simonsen, L.; Spreeuwenberg, P.; Lustig, R.; Taylor, R.J.; Fleming, D.M.; Kroneman, M.; Kerkhove, M.D. Van; Mounts, A.W.; Paget, W.J.; Teams, G.L.C.

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Assessing the mortality impact of the 2009 influenza A H1N1 virus (H1N1pdm09) is essential for optimizing public health responses to future pandemics. The World Health Organization reported 18,631 laboratory-confirmed pandemic deaths, but the total pandemic mortality burden was

  15. Global mortality estimates for the 2009 influenza pandemic from the GLaMOR Project: a modeling study.

    Simonsen, L.; Spreeuwenberg, P.; Lustig, R.; Taylor, R.J.; Fleming, D.M.; Kroneman, M.; Kerkhove, M.D. van; Mounts, A.W.; Paget, W.J.

    2013-01-01

    Background: Assessing the mortality impact of the 2009 influenza A H1N1 virus (H1N1pdm09) is essential for optimizing public health responses to future pandemics. The World Health Organization reported 18,631 laboratory-confirmed pandemic deaths, but the total pandemic mortality burden was

  16. Pandemic planning

    Dietz, J. Eric; Black, David R

    2012-01-01

    ... that may arise throughout the process. The book details the threat of pandemic illness and the need and actions required for efficient and effective preparation, prevention, response, and recovery to a pandemic threat at all levels...

  17. Severe mortality impact of the 1957 influenza pandemic in Chile

    Chowell, Gerardo; Simonsen, Lone; Fuentes, Rodrigo

    2017-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Epidemiological studies of the 1957 influenza pandemic are scarce, particularly from lower income settings. METHODS: We analyzed the spatial-temporal mortality patterns of the 1957 influenza pandemic in Chile including detailed age-specific mortality data from a large city...... with high baseline mortality (R2=41.8%; P=0.02), but not with latitude (P>0.7). Excess mortality rates increased sharply with age. Transmissibility declined from R=1.4-2.1 to R=1.2-1.4 between the two pandemic waves. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated A/H2N2 mortality burden in Chile is the highest on record...... for this pandemic - about 3-5 times as severe as that experienced in wealthier nations. The global impact of this pandemic may be substantially underestimated from previous studies based on high-income countries....

  18. Pandemic swine influenza virus: Preparedness planning | Ojogba ...

    The novel H1N1 influenza virus that emerged in humans in Mexico in early 2009 and transmitted efficiently in the human population with global spread was declared a pandemic strain. The introduction of different avian and human influenza virus genes into swine influenza viruses often result in viruses of increased fitness ...

  19. Genomic profiling of tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-alpha) receptor and interleukin-1 receptor knockout mice reveals a link between TNF-alpha signaling and increased severity of 1918 pandemic influenza virus infection

    The influenza pandemic of 1918-1919 was one of the worst global pandemics in recent history. The highly pathogenic nature of the 1918 virus is thought to be mediated in part by a dysregulation of the host response, including an exacerbated pro-inflammatory cytokine response. In the present study, we...

  20. Pandemics, pathogenicity and changing molecular epidemiology of cholera in the era of global warming.

    Chowdhury, Fazle Rabbi; Nur, Zannatun; Hassan, Nazia; von Seidlein, Lorenz; Dunachie, Susanna

    2017-03-07

    Vibrio cholerae, a Gram-negative, non-spore forming curved rod is found in diverse aquatic ecosystems around the planet. It is classified according to its major surface antigen into around 206 serogroups, of which O1 and O139 cause epidemic cholera. A recent spatial modelling technique estimated that around 2.86 million cholera cases occur globally every year, and of them approximately 95,000 die. About 1.3 billion people are currently at risk of infection from cholera. Meta-analysis and mathematical modelling have demonstrated that due to global warming the burden of vector-borne diseases like malaria, leishmaniasis, meningococcal meningitis, viral encephalitis, dengue and chikungunya will increase in the coming years in the tropics and beyond. This review offers an overview of the interplay between global warming and the pathogenicity and epidemiology of V. cholerae. Several distinctive features of cholera survival (optimal thriving at 15% salinity, 30 °C water temperature, and pH 8.5) indicate a possible role of climate change in triggering the epidemic process. Genetic exchange (ctxAB, zot, ace, cep, and orfU) between strains and transduction process allows potential emergence of new toxigenic clones. These processes are probably controlled by precise environmental signals such as optimum temperature, sunlight and osmotic conditions. Environmental influences on phytoplankton growth and chitin remineralization will be discussed alongside the interplay of poor sanitary conditions, overcrowding, improper sewage disposal and global warming in promoting the growth and transmission of this deadly disease. The development of an effective early warning system based on climate data could help to prevent and control future outbreaks. It may become possible to integrate real-time monitoring of oceanic regions, climate variability and epidemiological and demographic population dynamics to predict cholera outbreaks and support the design of cost-effective public health

  1. Secondary Bacterial Infections Associated with Influenza Pandemics

    Morris, Denise E.; Cleary, David W.; Clarke, Stuart C.

    2017-01-01

    Lower and upper respiratory infections are the fourth highest cause of global mortality (Lozano et al., 2012). Epidemic and pandemic outbreaks of respiratory infection are a major medical concern, often causing considerable disease and a high death toll, typically over a relatively short period of time. Influenza is a major cause of epidemic and pandemic infection. Bacterial co/secondary infection further increases morbidity and mortality of influenza infection, with Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, and Staphylococcus aureus reported as the most common causes. With increased antibiotic resistance and vaccine evasion it is important to monitor the epidemiology of pathogens in circulation to inform clinical treatment and development, particularly in the setting of an influenza epidemic/pandemic. PMID:28690590

  2. Secondary Bacterial Infections Associated with Influenza Pandemics

    Denise E. Morris

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Lower and upper respiratory infections are the fourth highest cause of global mortality (Lozano et al., 2012. Epidemic and pandemic outbreaks of respiratory infection are a major medical concern, often causing considerable disease and a high death toll, typically over a relatively short period of time. Influenza is a major cause of epidemic and pandemic infection. Bacterial co/secondary infection further increases morbidity and mortality of influenza infection, with Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, and Staphylococcus aureus reported as the most common causes. With increased antibiotic resistance and vaccine evasion it is important to monitor the epidemiology of pathogens in circulation to inform clinical treatment and development, particularly in the setting of an influenza epidemic/pandemic.

  3. The 1918–1920 influenza pandemic in Peru

    Chowell, G.; Viboud, C.; Simonsen, L.; Miller, M.A.; Hurtado, J.; Soto, G.; Vargas, R.; Guzman, M.A.; Ulloa, M.; Munayco, C.V.

    2011-01-01

    Background Increasing our knowledge of past influenza pandemic patterns in different regions of the world is crucial to guide preparedness plans against future influenza pandemics. Here, we undertook extensive archival collection efforts from 3 representative cities of Peru (Lima in the central coast, Iquitos in the northeastern Amazon region, Ica in the southern coast) to characterize the age and geographic patterns of the 1918–1920 influenza pandemic in this country. Materials and Methods We analyzed historical documents describing the 1918–1920 influenza pandemic in Peru and retrieved individual mortality records from local provincial archives for quantitative analysis. We applied seasonal excess mortality models to daily and monthly respiratory mortality rates for 1917–1920 and quantified transmissibility estimates based on the daily growth rate in respiratory deaths. Results A total of 52,739 individual mortality records were inspected from local provincial archives. We found evidence for an initial mild pandemic wave during July-September 1918 in Lima, identified a synchronized severe pandemic wave of respiratory mortality in all three locations in Peru during November 1918-February 1919, and a severe pandemic wave during January 1920- March 1920 in Lima and July-October 1920 in Ica. There was no recrudescent pandemic wave in 1920 in Iquitos. Remarkably, Lima experienced the brunt of the 1918–20 excess mortality impact during the 1920 recrudescent wave, with all age groups experiencing an increase in all cause excess mortality from 1918–19 to 1920. Middle age groups experienced the highest excess mortality impact, relative to baseline levels, in the 1918–19 and 1920 pandemic waves. Cumulative excess mortality rates for the 1918–20 pandemic period were higher in Iquitos (2.9%) than Lima (1.6%). The mean reproduction number for Lima was estimated in the range 1.3–1.5. Conclusions We identified synchronized pandemic waves of intense excess

  4. Increasing women in leadership in global health.

    Downs, Jennifer A; Reif, Lindsey K; Hokororo, Adolfine; Fitzgerald, Daniel W

    2014-08-01

    Globally, women experience a disproportionate burden of disease and death due to inequities in access to basic health care, nutrition, and education. In the face of this disparity, it is striking that leadership in the field of global health is highly skewed towards men and that global health organizations neglect the issue of gender equality in their own leadership. Randomized trials demonstrate that women in leadership positions in governmental organizations implement different policies than men and that these policies are more supportive of women and children. Other studies show that proactive interventions to increase the proportion of women in leadership positions within businesses or government can be successful. Therefore, the authors assert that increasing female leadership in global health is both feasible and a fundamental step towards addressing the problem of women's health. In this Perspective, the authors contrast the high proportion of young female trainees who are interested in academic global health early in their careers with the low numbers of women successfully rising to global health leadership roles. The authors subsequently explore reasons for female attrition from the field of global health and offer practical strategies for closing the gender gap in global health leadership. The authors propose solutions aimed to promote female leaders from both resource-wealthy and resource-poor countries, including leadership training grants, mentorship from female leaders in global professions, strengthening health education in resource-poor countries, research-enabling grants, and altering institutional policies to support women choosing a global health career path.

  5. Reviewing the History of Pandemic Influenza: Understanding Patterns of Emergence and Transmission

    Saunders-Hastings, Patrick R.; Krewski, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    For centuries, novel strains of influenza have emerged to produce human pandemics, causing widespread illness, death, and disruption. There have been four influenza pandemics in the past hundred years. During this time, globalization processes, alongside advances in medicine and epidemiology, have altered the way these pandemics are experienced. Drawing on international case studies, this paper provides a review of the impact of past influenza pandemics, while examining the evolution of our understanding of, and response to, these viruses. This review argues that pandemic influenza is in part a consequence of human development, and highlights the importance of considering outbreaks within the context of shifting global landscapes. While progress in infectious disease prevention, control, and treatment has improved our ability to respond to such outbreaks, globalization processes relating to human behaviour, demographics, and mobility have increased the threat of pandemic emergence and accelerated global disease transmission. Preparedness planning must continue to evolve to keep pace with this heightened risk. Herein, we look to the past for insights on the pandemic experience, underlining both progress and persisting challenges. However, given the uncertain timing and severity of future pandemics, we emphasize the need for flexible policies capable of responding to change as such emergencies develop. PMID:27929449

  6. La Grippe and World War I: conflict participation and pandemic confrontation.

    Steele, B J; Collins, C D

    2009-01-01

    This paper assesses whether a nation-state's participation in conflict influences its ability to confront global pandemic or disease. Two alternative hypotheses are proposed. First, increased levels of conflict participation lead to increased abilities of states to confront pandemics. A second and alternative hypothesis is that increased conflict participation decreases the ability of states to confront pandemics. The hypotheses are tested through the ultimate case of war and pandemic: the 1918 Influenza pandemic (Spanish Flu or 'La Grippe') that killed 20-100 million people worldwide. Using simple correlation and case illustrations, we test these hypotheses with special focus upon the ability of the participant countries to confront the pandemic. The findings suggest, in a limited and varied fashion, that while neutral countries enjoyed the lowest levels of pandemic deaths, of the participant countries greater levels of conflict participation correlate with lower levels of pandemic deaths. The paper concludes with some propositions regarding the relationship between the current 'war on terror' and prospective pandemics such as avian flu.

  7. A Predictable Unpredictability. The 2009 H1N1 pandemic and the concept of “strategic uncertainty” within global public health

    Theresa MacPhail

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available This essay will examine the seemingly new paradigm shift within global public health from the use of a scientific “certainty” to a biological and situational “uncertainty” as one of the foundations of response to infectious disease outbreaks. During the recent 2009 H1N1 influenza outbreak, national and international public health officials often referred directly to the “uncertainty” surrounding both the virus itself and of the course, duration and severity of the pandemic. The vague and flexible concept of “uncertainty” – especially as it was employed by top virologists and epidemiologists in relationship to questions about the predictability of the influenza virus – provided the scientific foundation for much of the rationale behind both national and international health responses to the global pandemic. Public health officials, epidemiologists, and scientists often deployed a type of “strategic uncertainty” as an effective tool for gaining or retaining trust and scientific authority during the H1N1 pandemic.

  8. Increased risk of narcolepsy in children and adults after pandemic H1N1 vaccination in France.

    Dauvilliers, Yves; Arnulf, Isabelle; Lecendreux, Michel; Monaca Charley, Christelle; Franco, Patricia; Drouot, Xavier; d'Ortho, Marie-Pia; Launois, Sandrine; Lignot, Séverine; Bourgin, Patrice; Nogues, Béatrice; Rey, Marc; Bayard, Sophie; Scholz, Sabine; Lavault, Sophie; Tubert-Bitter, Pascale; Saussier, Cristel; Pariente, Antoine

    2013-08-01

    An increased incidence of narcolepsy in children was detected in Scandinavian countries where pandemic H1N1 influenza ASO3-adjuvanted vaccine was used. A campaign of vaccination against pandemic H1N1 influenza was implemented in France using both ASO3-adjuvanted and non-adjuvanted vaccines. As part of a study considering all-type narcolepsy, we investigated the association between H1N1 vaccination and narcolepsy with cataplexy in children and adults compared with matched controls; and compared the phenotype of narcolepsy with cataplexy according to exposure to the H1N1 vaccination. Patients with narcolepsy-cataplexy were included from 14 expert centres in France. Date of diagnosis constituted the index date. Validation of cases was performed by independent experts using the Brighton collaboration criteria. Up to four controls were individually matched to cases according to age, gender and geographic location. A structured telephone interview was performed to collect information on medical history, past infections and vaccinations. Eighty-five cases with narcolepsy-cataplexy were included; 23 being further excluded regarding eligibility criteria. Of the 62 eligible cases, 59 (64% males, 57.6% children) could be matched with 135 control subjects. H1N1 vaccination was associated with narcolepsy-cataplexy with an odds ratio of 6.5 (2.1-19.9) in subjects agedvaccine. Slight differences were found when comparing cases with narcolepsy-cataplexy exposed to H1N1 vaccination (n=32; mostly AS03-adjuvanted vaccine, n=28) to non-exposed cases (n=30), including shorter delay of diagnosis and a higher number of sleep onset rapid eye movement periods for exposed cases. No difference was found regarding history of infections. In this sub-analysis, H1N1 vaccination was strongly associated with an increased risk of narcolepsy-cataplexy in both children and adults in France. Even if, as in every observational study, the possibility that some biases participated in the association

  9. Were equatorial regions less affected by the 2009 influenza pandemic? The Brazilian experience.

    Cynthia Schuck-Paim

    Full Text Available Although it is in the Tropics where nearly half of the world population lives and infectious disease burden is highest, little is known about the impact of influenza pandemics in this area. We investigated the mortality impact of the 2009 influenza pandemic relative to mortality rates from various outcomes in pre-pandemic years throughout a wide range of latitudes encompassing the entire tropical, and part of the subtropical, zone of the Southern Hemisphere (+5(°N to -35(°S by focusing on a country with relatively uniform health care, disease surveillance, immunization and mitigation policies: Brazil. To this end, we analyzed laboratory-confirmed deaths and vital statistics mortality beyond pre-pandemic levels for each Brazilian state. Pneumonia, influenza and respiratory mortality were significantly higher during the pandemic, affecting predominantly adults aged 25 to 65 years. Overall, there were 2,273 and 2,787 additional P&I- and respiratory deaths during the pandemic, corresponding to a 5.2% and 2.7% increase, respectively, over average pre-pandemic annual mortality. However, there was a marked spatial structure in mortality that was independent of socio-demographic indicators and inversely related with income: mortality was progressively lower towards equatorial regions, where low or no difference from pre-pandemic mortality levels was identified. Additionally, the onset of pandemic-associated mortality was progressively delayed in equatorial states. Unexpectedly, there was no additional mortality from circulatory causes. Comparing disease burden reliably across regions is critical in those areas marked by competing health priorities and limited resources. Our results suggest, however, that tropical regions of the Southern Hemisphere may have been disproportionally less affected by the pandemic, and that climate may have played a key role in this regard. These findings have a direct bearing on global estimates of pandemic burden and the

  10. Does trade liberalization increase global pollution?

    Beladi, Hamid; Oladi, Reza

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we consider a simple duopoly market in which a home firm and a foreign firm use labor to produce an identical product and supply it to the home market. Firms emit pollution as a by-product of production. We show conditions under which international trade liberalization decreases (increases) the global pollution. (author)

  11. Simple vs. Complex Carbohydrate Dietary Patterns and the Global Overweight and Obesity Pandemic.

    Ferretti, Fabrizio; Mariani, Michele

    2017-10-04

    Nowadays, obesity and being overweight are among the major global health concerns. Many, diet-related diseases impose high tangible and intangible costs, and threaten the sustainability of health-care systems worldwide. In this study, we model, at the macroeconomic level, the impact of energy intake from different types of carbohydrates on the population's BMI (body mass index). We proceed in three steps. First, we develop a framework to analyse both the consumption choices between simple and complex carbohydrates and the effects of these choices on people health conditions. Second, we collect figures for 185 countries (over the period 2012-2014) regarding the shares of simple (sugar and sweetener) and complex (cereal) carbohydrates in each country's total dietary energy supply. Third, we use regression techniques to: (1) estimate the impact of these shares on the country's prevalence of obesity and being overweight; (2) compute for each country an indicator of dietary pattern based on the ratio between simple and complex carbohydrates, weighted by their estimated effects on the prevalence of obesity and being overweight; and (3) measure the elasticity of the prevalence of obesity and being overweight with respect to changes in both carbohydrate dietary pattern and income per capita. We find that unhealthy eating habits and the associated prevalence of excessive body fat accumulation tend to behave as a 'normal good' in low, medium- and high-HDI (Human Development Index) countries, but as an 'inferior good' in very high-HDI countries.

  12. Simple vs. Complex Carbohydrate Dietary Patterns and the Global Overweight and Obesity Pandemic

    Fabrizio Ferretti

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, obesity and being overweight are among the major global health concerns. Many, diet-related diseases impose high tangible and intangible costs, and threaten the sustainability of health-care systems worldwide. In this study, we model, at the macroeconomic level, the impact of energy intake from different types of carbohydrates on the population’s BMI (body mass index. We proceed in three steps. First, we develop a framework to analyse both the consumption choices between simple and complex carbohydrates and the effects of these choices on people health conditions. Second, we collect figures for 185 countries (over the period 2012–2014 regarding the shares of simple (sugar and sweetener and complex (cereal carbohydrates in each country’s total dietary energy supply. Third, we use regression techniques to: (1 estimate the impact of these shares on the country’s prevalence of obesity and being overweight; (2 compute for each country an indicator of dietary pattern based on the ratio between simple and complex carbohydrates, weighted by their estimated effects on the prevalence of obesity and being overweight; and (3 measure the elasticity of the prevalence of obesity and being overweight with respect to changes in both carbohydrate dietary pattern and income per capita. We find that unhealthy eating habits and the associated prevalence of excessive body fat accumulation tend to behave as a ‘normal good’ in low, medium- and high-HDI (Human Development Index countries, but as an ‘inferior good’ in very high-HDI countries.

  13. Mathematical assessment of Canada's pandemic influenza preparedness plan.

    Gumel, Abba B; Nuño, Miriam; Chowell, Gerardo

    2008-03-01

    The presence of the highly pathogenic avian H5N1 virus in wild bird populations in several regions of the world, together with recurrent cases of H5N1 influenza arising primarily from direct contact with poultry, have highlighted the urgent need for prepared-ness and coordinated global strategies to effectively combat a potential influenza pandemic. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the Canadian pandemic influenza preparedness plan. A mathematical model of the transmission dynamics of influenza was used to keep track of the population according to risk of infection (low or high) and infection status (susceptible, exposed or infectious). The model was parametrized using available Canadian demographic data. The model was then used to evaluate the key components outlined in the Canadian plan. The results indicated that the number of cases, mortalities and hospitalizations estimated in the Canadian plan may have been underestimated; the use of antivirals, administered therapeutically, prophylactically or both, is the most effective single intervention followed by the use of a vaccine and basic public health measures; and the combined use of pharmaceutical interventions (antivirals and vaccine) can dramatically minimize the burden of the pending influenza pandemic in Canada. Based on increasing concerns of Oseltamivir resistance (wide-scale implementation), coupled with the expected unavailability of a suitable vaccine during the early stages of a pandemic, the present study evaluated the potential impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) which were not emphasized in the current Canadian plan. To this end, the findings suggest that the use of NPIs can drastically reduce the burden of a pandemic in Canada. A deterministic model was designed and used to assess Canada's pandemic preparedness plan. The study showed that the estimates of pandemic influenza burden given in the Canada pandemic preparedness plan may be an underestimate, and that Canada

  14. Greenhouse gas emissions increase global warming

    Mohajan, Haradhan

    2011-01-01

    This paper discusses the greenhouse gas emissions which cause the global warming in the atmosphere. In the 20th century global climate change becomes more sever which is due to greenhouse gas emissions. According to International Energy Agency data, the USA and China are approximately tied and leading global emitters of greenhouse gas emissions. Together they emit approximately 40% of global CO2 emissions, and about 35% of total greenhouse gases. The developed and developing industrialized co...

  15. Virulence determinants of pandemic influenza viruses

    Tscherne, Donna M.; García-Sastre, Adolfo

    2011-01-01

    Influenza A viruses cause recurrent, seasonal epidemics and occasional global pandemics with devastating levels of morbidity and mortality. The ability of influenza A viruses to adapt to various hosts and undergo reassortment events ensures constant generation of new strains with unpredictable degrees of pathogenicity, transmissibility, and pandemic potential. Currently, the combination of factors that drives the emergence of pandemic influenza is unclear, making it impossible to foresee the details of a future outbreak. Identification and characterization of influenza A virus virulence determinants may provide insight into genotypic signatures of pathogenicity as well as a more thorough understanding of the factors that give rise to pandemics. PMID:21206092

  16. Pandemic influenza preparedness: an ethical framework to guide decision-making

    Gibson Jennifer L

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Planning for the next pandemic influenza outbreak is underway in hospitals across the world. The global SARS experience has taught us that ethical frameworks to guide decision-making may help to reduce collateral damage and increase trust and solidarity within and between health care organisations. Good pandemic planning requires reflection on values because science alone cannot tell us how to prepare for a public health crisis. Discussion In this paper, we present an ethical framework for pandemic influenza planning. The ethical framework was developed with expertise from clinical, organisational and public health ethics and validated through a stakeholder engagement process. The ethical framework includes both substantive and procedural elements for ethical pandemic influenza planning. The incorporation of ethics into pandemic planning can be helped by senior hospital administrators sponsoring its use, by having stakeholders vet the framework, and by designing or identifying decision review processes. We discuss the merits and limits of an applied ethical framework for hospital decision-making, as well as the robustness of the framework. Summary The need for reflection on the ethical issues raised by the spectre of a pandemic influenza outbreak is great. Our efforts to address the normative aspects of pandemic planning in hospitals have generated interest from other hospitals and from the governmental sector. The framework will require re-evaluation and refinement and we hope that this paper will generate feedback on how to make it even more robust.

  17. Assessing the ecotoxicologic hazards of a pandemic influenza medical response.

    Singer, Andrew C; Colizza, Vittoria; Schmitt, Heike; Andrews, Johanna; Balcan, Duygu; Huang, Wei E; Keller, Virginie D J; Vespignani, Alessandro; Williams, Richard J

    2011-08-01

    The global public health community has closely monitored the unfolding of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic to best mitigate its impact on society. However, little attention has been given to the impact of this response on the environment. Antivirals and antibiotics prescribed to treat influenza are excreted into wastewater in a biologically active form, which presents a new and potentially significant ecotoxicologic challenge to microorganisms responsible for wastewater nutrient removal in wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) and receiving rivers. We assessed the ecotoxicologic risks of a pandemic influenza medical response. To evaluate this risk, we coupled a global spatially structured epidemic model that simulates the quantities of antivirals and antibiotics used during an influenza pandemic of varying severity and a water quality model applied to the Thames catchment to determine predicted environmental concentrations. An additional model was then used to assess the effects of antibiotics on microorganisms in WWTPs and rivers. Consistent with expectations, our model projected a mild pandemic to exhibit a negligible ecotoxicologic hazard. In a moderate and severe pandemic, we projected WWTP toxicity to vary between 0-14% and 5-32% potentially affected fraction (PAF), respectively, and river toxicity to vary between 0-14% and 0-30% PAF, respectively, where PAF is the fraction of microbial species predicted to be growth inhibited (lower and upper 95% reference range). The current medical response to pandemic influenza might result in the discharge of insufficiently treated wastewater into receiving rivers, thereby increasing the risk of eutrophication and contamination of drinking water abstraction points. Widespread drugs in the environment could hasten the generation of drug resistance. Our results highlight the need for empirical data on the effects of antibiotics and antiviral medications on WWTPs and freshwater ecotoxicity.

  18. Global nitrogen requirement for increased biofuel production

    Flapper, Joris

    2008-01-01

    Biofuels are thought to be one of the options to substitute fossil fuels and prevent global warming by the greenhouse gas (GHG) effect as they are seen as a renewable form of energy. However, biofuels are almost solely subjected to criticism from an energ

  19. Vulnerability and risk perception in the management of HIV/AIDS: Public priorities in a global pandemic

    Peter Tsasis

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Peter Tsasis1,2, N. Nirupama21School of Health Policy and Management, 2School of Administrative Studies, York University, Toronto, Ontario, CanadaAbstract: Understanding the way perception of risk is shaped and constructed is crucial in understanding why it has been so difficult to mitigate the spread of HIV/AIDS. This paper uses the Pressure and Release (PAR model, used to predict the onset of natural disasters as the conceptual framework. It substitutes vulnerability and risk perception as the trigger factors in the model, in making the case that HIV/AIDS can be characterized as a slow onset disaster. The implications are that vulnerability must be managed and reduced by addressing root causes, dynamic pressures, and unsafe conditions that contribute to the HIV/AIDS pandemic. HIV/AIDS programs must be culturally appropriate and work toward influencing risk perception, while addressing social norms and values that negatively impact vulnerable populations. By impacting cultural and social expectations, individuals will be able to more readily adopt safer sex behaviors. The development of policies and programs addressing the issues in context, as opposed to individual behaviors alone, allows for effective public health intervention. This may have implications for public health measures implemented for combating the spread of HIV/AIDS.Keywords: vulnerability, risk perception, HIV/AIDS, public health intervention

  20. Controlling pandemic flu: the value of international air travel restrictions.

    Joshua M Epstein

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Planning for a possible influenza pandemic is an extremely high priority, as social and economic effects of an unmitigated pandemic would be devastating. Mathematical models can be used to explore different scenarios and provide insight into potential costs, benefits, and effectiveness of prevention and control strategies under consideration.A stochastic, equation-based epidemic model is used to study global transmission of pandemic flu, including the effects of travel restrictions and vaccination. Economic costs of intervention are also considered. The distribution of First Passage Times (FPT to the United States and the numbers of infected persons in metropolitan areas worldwide are studied assuming various times and locations of the initial outbreak. International air travel restrictions alone provide a small delay in FPT to the U.S. When other containment measures are applied at the source in conjunction with travel restrictions, delays could be much longer. If in addition, control measures are instituted worldwide, there is a significant reduction in cases worldwide and specifically in the U.S. However, if travel restrictions are not combined with other measures, local epidemic severity may increase, because restriction-induced delays can push local outbreaks into high epidemic season. The per annum cost to the U.S. economy of international and major domestic air passenger travel restrictions is minimal: on the order of 0.8% of Gross National Product.International air travel restrictions may provide a small but important delay in the spread of a pandemic, especially if other disease control measures are implemented during the afforded time. However, if other measures are not instituted, delays may worsen regional epidemics by pushing the outbreak into high epidemic season. This important interaction between policy and seasonality is only evident with a global-scale model. Since the benefit of travel restrictions can be substantial while

  1. Pandemic Influenza Pediatric Office Plan Template

    HCTT CHE

    2010-01-01

    This is a planning tool developed by pediatric stakeholders that is intended to assist pediatric medical offices that have no pandemic influenza plan in place, but may experience an increase in patient calls/visits or workload due to pandemic influenza.

  2. Leptospirosis: a globally increasing zoonotic disease.

    Rock, Clare

    2010-01-01

    A 27-year-old previously healthy man was admitted to the intensive care unit with severe jaundice, dyspnoea with haemoptysis, anaemia, thrombocytopenia and acute renal injury. He had no recent history of foreign travel but had been building a shed in his back garden in Cork, Ireland, for the preceding week. The patient\\'s history, clinical observations, haematological and radiological results were all consistent with icteric leptospirosis or Weil\\'s disease. This was confirmed on serological testing. He completed 7 days intravenous ceftriaxone and made a complete recovery. While endemic in tropical climates, leptospirosis incidence is increasing in temperate climates. Recent cases seen in temperate climates can be severe, particularly with pulmonary manifestations. The report of this case serves to increase awareness of this re-emerging potentially fatal infectious disease.

  3. Can modeling of HIV treatment processes improve outcomes? Capitalizing on an operations research approach to the global pandemic

    Hollingsworth Eric B

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Mathematical modeling has been applied to a range of policy-level decisions on resource allocation for HIV care and treatment. We describe the application of classic operations research (OR techniques to address logistical and resource management challenges in HIV treatment scale-up activities in resource-limited countries. Methods We review and categorize several of the major logistical and operational problems encountered over the last decade in the global scale-up of HIV care and antiretroviral treatment for people with AIDS. While there are unique features of HIV care and treatment that pose significant challenges to effective modeling and service improvement, we identify several analogous OR-based solutions that have been developed in the service, industrial, and health sectors. Results HIV treatment scale-up includes many processes that are amenable to mathematical and simulation modeling, including forecasting future demand for services; locating and sizing facilities for maximal efficiency; and determining optimal staffing levels at clinical centers. Optimization of clinical and logistical processes through modeling may improve outcomes, but successful OR-based interventions will require contextualization of response strategies, including appreciation of both existing health care systems and limitations in local health workforces. Conclusion The modeling techniques developed in the engineering field of operations research have wide potential application to the variety of logistical problems encountered in HIV treatment scale-up in resource-limited settings. Increasing the number of cross-disciplinary collaborations between engineering and public health will help speed the appropriate development and application of these tools.

  4. Avian Influenza Pandemic May Expand the Military Role in Disaster Relief

    Sherod, II, Frank W

    2006-01-01

    .... The next national disaster facing the U.S. could be an influenza pandemic. The bird flu virus H5N1 currently threatening Asia and Europe can potentially mutate into a deadly human influenza pandemic with global consequences...

  5. A genomic portrait of the emergence, evolution, and global spread of a methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus pandemic

    Holden, Matthew T G; Hsu, Li-Yang; Kurt, Kevin

    2013-01-01

    The widespread use of antibiotics in association with high-density clinical care has driven the emergence of drug-resistant bacteria that are adapted to thrive in hospitalized patients. Of particular concern are globally disseminated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) clones that ...

  6. Controlling pandemic flu: the value of international air travel restrictions.

    Joshua M Epstein; D Michael Goedecke; Feng Yu; Robert J Morris; Diane K Wagener; Georgiy V Bobashev

    2007-01-01

    Background Planning for a possible influenza pandemic is an extremely high priority, as social and economic effects of an unmitigated pandemic would be devastating. Mathematical models can be used to explore different scenarios and provide insight into potential costs, benefits, and effectiveness of prevention and control strategies under consideration. Methods and Findings A stochastic, equation-based epidemic model is used to study global transmission of pandemic flu, including the effects ...

  7. Pandemic influenza: certain uncertainties

    Morens, David M.; Taubenberger, Jeffery K.

    2011-01-01

    SUMMARY For at least five centuries, major epidemics and pandemics of influenza have occurred unexpectedly and at irregular intervals. Despite the modern notion that pandemic influenza is a distinct phenomenon obeying such constant (if incompletely understood) rules such as dramatic genetic change, cyclicity, “wave” patterning, virus replacement, and predictable epidemic behavior, much evidence suggests the opposite. Although there is much that we know about pandemic influenza, there appears to be much more that we do not know. Pandemics arise as a result of various genetic mechanisms, have no predictable patterns of mortality among different age groups, and vary greatly in how and when they arise and recur. Some are followed by new pandemics, whereas others fade gradually or abruptly into long-term endemicity. Human influenza pandemics have been caused by viruses that evolved singly or in co-circulation with other pandemic virus descendants and often have involved significant transmission between, or establishment of, viral reservoirs within other animal hosts. In recent decades, pandemic influenza has continued to produce numerous unanticipated events that expose fundamental gaps in scientific knowledge. Influenza pandemics appear to be not a single phenomenon but a heterogeneous collection of viral evolutionary events whose similarities are overshadowed by important differences, the determinants of which remain poorly understood. These uncertainties make it difficult to predict influenza pandemics and, therefore, to adequately plan to prevent them. PMID:21706672

  8. What happened after the initial global spread of pandemic human influenza virus A (H1N1? A population genetics approach

    Martinez-Hernandez Fernando

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Viral population evolution dynamics of influenza A is crucial for surveillance and control. In this paper we analyzed viral genetic features during the recent pandemic caused by the new influenza human virus A H1N1, using a conventional population genetics approach based on 4689 hemagglutinin (HA and neuraminidase (NA sequences available in GenBank submitted between March and December of 2009. This analysis showed several relevant aspects: a a scarce initial genetic variability within the viral isolates from some countries that increased along 2009 when influenza was dispersed around the world; b a worldwide virus polarized behavior identified when comparing paired countries, low differentiation and high gene flow were found in some pairs and high differentiation and moderate or scarce gene flow in others, independently of their geographical closeness, c lack of positive selection in HA and NA due to increase of the population size of virus variants, d HA and NA variants spread in a few months all over the world being identified in the same countries in different months along 2009, and e containment of viral variants in Mexico at the beginning of the outbreak, probably due to the control measures applied by the government.

  9. Increase in IFNγ(-IL-2(+ cells in recent human CD4 T cell responses to 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza.

    Jason M Weaver

    Full Text Available Human CD4 T cell recall responses to influenza virus are strongly biased towards Type 1 cytokines, producing IFNγ, IL-2 and TNFα. We have now examined the effector phenotypes of CD4 T cells in more detail, particularly focusing on differences between recent versus long-term, multiply-boosted responses. Peptides spanning the proteome of temporally distinct influenza viruses were distributed into pools enriched for cross-reactivity to different influenza strains, and used to stimulate antigen-specific CD4 T cells representing recent or long-term memory. In the general population, peptides unique to the long-circulating influenza A/New Caledonia/20/99 (H1N1 induced Th1-like responses biased toward the expression of IFNγ(+TNFα(+ CD4 T cells. In contrast, peptide pools enriched for non-cross-reactive peptides of the pandemic influenza A/California/04/09 (H1N1 induced more IFNγ(-IL-2(+TNFα(+ T cells, similar to the IFNγ(-IL-2(+ non-polarized, primed precursor T cells (Thpp that are a predominant response to protein vaccination. These results were confirmed in a second study that compared samples taken before the 2009 pandemic to samples taken one month after PCR-confirmed A/California/04/09 infection. There were striking increases in influenza-specific TNFα(+, IFNγ(+, and IL-2(+ cells in the post-infection samples. Importantly, peptides enriched for non-cross-reactive A/California/04/09 specificities induced a higher proportion of Thpp-like IFNγ(-IL-2(+TNFα(+ CD4 T cells than peptide pools cross-reactive with previous influenza strains, which induced more Th1 (IFNγ(+TNFα(+ responses. These IFNγ(-IL-2(+TNFα(+ CD4 T cells may be an important target population for vaccination regimens, as these cells are induced upon infection, may have high proliferative potential, and may play a role in providing future effector cells during subsequent infections.

  10. Genomic Analysis of the Emergence and Rapid Global Dissemination of the Clonal Group 258 Klebsiella pneumoniae Pandemic.

    Jolene R Bowers

    Full Text Available Multidrug-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae producing the KPC carbapenemase have rapidly spread throughout the world, causing severe healthcare-associated infections with limited antimicrobial treatment options. Dissemination of KPC-producing K. pneumoniae is largely attributed to expansion of a single dominant strain, ST258. In this study, we explore phylogenetic relationships and evolution within ST258 and its clonal group, CG258, using whole genome sequence analysis of 167 isolates from 20 countries collected over 17 years. Our results show a common ST258 ancestor emerged from its diverse parental clonal group around 1995 and likely acquired blaKPC prior to dissemination. Over the past two decades, ST258 has remained highly clonal despite diversity in accessory elements and divergence in the capsule polysaccharide synthesis locus. Apart from the large recombination event that gave rise to ST258, few mutations set it apart from its clonal group. However, one mutation occurs in a global transcription regulator. Characterization of outer membrane protein sequences revealed a profile in ST258 that includes a truncated OmpK35 and modified OmpK37. Our work illuminates potential genomic contributors to the pathogenic success of ST258, helps us better understand the global dissemination of this strain, and identifies genetic markers unique to ST258.

  11. Prevalence of Influenza A (H1N1) Sero positivity in Unvaccinated Health care Workers in Scotland at the Height of the Global Pandemic

    Smith, K.; Katikireddi, S.V.; Mackenzie, D.G.; Warner, P.; Williams, L.J.; Adamson, W.E.; Carman, W.F.; Dewart, P.; Templeton, K.; Denison, F.C.

    2011-01-01

    Background. We set out to identify the level of previous exposure to influenza A (H1N1) in unvaccinated health care workers (HCWs) at the peak of the pandemic outbreak in the UK, with control samples collected prior to the outbreak. Methods. Cross-sectional study (sero prevalence assessed before and at pandemic peak, with questionnaire data collected at peak of outbreak) in HCWs in Scotland. Results. The prevalence of sero positivity in 493 HCWs at pandemic peak was 10.3%, which was higher than the pre pandemic level by 3.7 percentage points (95% CI 0.3% to 7.3%, P=0.048). Sero positivity rates for front line and non front line HCWs were similar. Conclusion. At pandemic peak, only 10.3% of HCWs were seropositive for influenza A (H1N1), so the great majority were still susceptible to infection at the introduction of the vaccination programme. Few studies have reported on sero prevalence in unvaccinated and asymptomatic participants, so our findings may have relevance to the wider population

  12. Swine flu - A pandemic outbreak

    Jini George

    Full Text Available Hippocrates had described influenza like outbreak in 412 B.C. and since then repeated influenza like epidemics and pandemics have been recorded in recent times. One of the greatest killers of all time was the pandemic of swine flu (Spanish flu of 1918-1919, when 230 million people died. Annual influenza epidemics are estimated to affect 5–15% of the global population, resulting in severe illness in 3–5 million patients causing 250,000–500,000 deaths worldwide. Severe illness and deaths occur mainly in the high-risk populations of infants, the elderly and chronically ill patients. The 2009 outbreak of swine flu is thought to be a mutation more specifically a reassortment of four known strains of influenza A virus subtype H1N1; one endemic in humans, one endemic in birds, and two endemic in pigs. WHO officially declared the outbreak to be a pandemic on June 11, 2009, but stressed that the new designation was a result of the global "spread of the virus," not its severity. [Vet World 2009; 2(12.000: 472-474

  13. Comprehensive global amino acid sequence analysis of PB1F2 protein of influenza A H5N1 viruses and the influenza A virus subtypes responsible for the 20th‐century pandemics

    Pasricha, Gunisha; Mishra, Akhilesh C.; Chakrabarti, Alok K.

    2012-01-01

    Please cite this paper as: Pasricha et al. (2012) Comprehensive global amino acid sequence analysis of PB1F2 protein of influenza A H5N1 viruses and the Influenza A virus subtypes responsible for the 20th‐century pandemics. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 7(4), 497–505. Background  PB1F2 is the 11th protein of influenza A virus translated from +1 alternate reading frame of PB1 gene. Since the discovery, varying sizes and functions of the PB1F2 protein of influenza A viruses have been reported. Selection of PB1 gene segment in the pandemics, variable size and pleiotropic effect of PB1F2 intrigued us to analyze amino acid sequences of this protein in various influenza A viruses. Methods  Amino acid sequences for PB1F2 protein of influenza A H5N1, H1N1, H2N2, and H3N2 subtypes were obtained from Influenza Research Database. Multiple sequence alignments of the PB1F2 protein sequences of the aforementioned subtypes were used to determine the size, variable and conserved domains and to perform mutational analysis. Results  Analysis showed that 96·4% of the H5N1 influenza viruses harbored full‐length PB1F2 protein. Except for the 2009 pandemic H1N1 virus, all the subtypes of the 20th‐century pandemic influenza viruses contained full‐length PB1F2 protein. Through the years, PB1F2 protein of the H1N1 and H3N2 viruses has undergone much variation. PB1F2 protein sequences of H5N1 viruses showed both human‐ and avian host‐specific conserved domains. Global database of PB1F2 protein revealed that N66S mutation was present only in 3·8% of the H5N1 strains. We found a novel mutation, N84S in the PB1F2 protein of 9·35% of the highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 influenza viruses. Conclusions  Varying sizes and mutations of the PB1F2 protein in different influenza A virus subtypes with pandemic potential were obtained. There was genetic divergence of the protein in various hosts which highlighted the host‐specific evolution of the virus

  14. Lessons learned from the global surveillance of pandemic influenza, the different communication strategies and the impact on Europe’s public health response.

    Velden, J. van der; Paget, W.J.

    2010-01-01

    After the first case of Mexican flu was reported in early spring 2009, a wave of reported cases went quickly through the (scientific) media. Pandemic influenza A(H1N1) activity was reported in all continents, but most countries were affected during summer 2009 in Latin America, Oceania and Asia,

  15. A highly pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N1 with 2009 pandemic H1N1 internal genes demonstrated increased replication and transmission in pigs

    This study investigated the pathogenicity and transmissibility of a reverse-genetics derived highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 influenza A virus (IAV), A/Iraq/775/06, and a reassortant virus comprised of the HA and NA from A/Iraq/775/06 and the internal genes of a 2009 pandemic H1N1, A/N...

  16. Increasing global crop harvest frequency: recent trends and future directions

    Ray, Deepak K; Foley, Jonathan A

    2013-01-01

    The world’s agricultural systems face the challenge of meeting the rising demands from population growth, changing dietary preferences, and expanding biofuel use. Previous studies have put forward strategies for meeting this growing demand by increasing global crop production, either expanding the area under cultivation or intensifying the crop yields of our existing agricultural lands. However, another possible means for increasing global crop production has received less attention: increasing the frequency of global cropland harvested each year. Historically, many of the world’s croplands were left fallow, or had failed harvests, each year, foregoing opportunities for delivering crop production. Furthermore, many regions, particularly in the tropics, may be capable of multiple harvests per year, often more than are harvested today. Here we analyze a global compilation of agricultural statistics to show how the world’s harvested cropland has changed. Between 2000 and 2011, harvested land area grew roughly 4 times faster than total standing cropland area. Using a metric of cropland harvest frequency (CHF)—the ratio of land harvested each year to the total standing cropland—and its recent trends, we identify countries that harvest their croplands more frequently, and those that have the potential to increase their cropland harvest frequency. We suggest that a possible ‘harvest gap’ may exist in many countries that represents an opportunity to increase crop production on existing agricultural lands. However, increasing the harvest frequency of existing croplands could have significant environmental and social impacts, which need careful evaluation. (letter)

  17. Canadian survey on pandemic flu preparations

    Tracy CS

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The management of pandemic influenza creates public health challenges. An ethical framework, 'Stand on Guard for Thee: ethical considerations in pandemic influenza preparedness' that served as a template for the World Health Organization's global consultation on pandemic planning, was transformed into a survey administered to a random sample of 500 Canadians to obtain opinions on key ethical issues in pandemic preparedness planning. Methods All framework authors and additional investigators created items that were pilot-tested with volunteers of both sexes and all socioeconomic strata. Surveys were telephone administered with random sampling achieved via random digit dialing (RDD. Eligible participants were adults, 18 years or older, with per province stratification equaling provincial percent of national population. Descriptive results were tabulated and logistic regression analyses were used to assess whether demographic factors were significantly associated with outcomes. Results 5464 calls identified 559 eligible participants of whom 88.5% completed surveys. Over 90% of subjects agreed the most important goal of pandemic influenza preparations was saving lives, with 41% endorsing saving lives solely in Canada and 50% endorsing saving lives globally as the highest priority. Older age (OR = 8.51, p Conclusions Results suggest trust in public health officials to make difficult decisions, providing emphasis on reciprocity and respect for individual rights.

  18. Is sunspot activity a factor in influenza pandemics?

    Qu, Jiangwen

    2016-09-01

    The 2009 AH1N1 pandemic became a global health concern, although fortunately, its worst anticipated effects were not realised. While the origins of such outbreaks remain poorly understood, it is very important to identify the precipitating factors in their emergence so that future pandemics can be detected as quickly as possible. Methords: Descriptive epidemiology was used to analyse the association between influenza pandemics and possible pandemics and relative number of sunspots. Non-conditional logistic regression was performed to analyse the statistical association between sunspot extremes and influenza pandemics to within plus or minus 1 year. Almost all recorded influenza/possible pandemics have occurred in time frames corresponding to sunspot extremes, or +/- 1 year within such extremes. These periods were identified as important risk factors in both possible and confirmed influenza pandemics (odds ratio: 3.87; 95% confidence interval: 1.08 to 13.85). Extremes of sunspot activity to within plus or minus 1 year may precipitate influenza pandemics. Mechanisms of epidemic initiation and early spread are discussed including primary causation by externally derived viral variants (from space via cometary dust). Efforts to construct a comprehensive early warning system for potential influenza and other viral pandemics that include analysis of sunspot activity and stratospheric sampling for viral variants should be supported. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  19. Increasing importance of precipitation variability on global livestock grazing lands

    Sloat, Lindsey L.; Gerber, James S.; Samberg, Leah H.; Smith, William K.; Herrero, Mario; Ferreira, Laerte G.; Godde, Cécile M.; West, Paul C.

    2018-03-01

    Pastures and rangelands underpin global meat and milk production and are a critical resource for millions of people dependent on livestock for food security1,2. Forage growth, which is highly climate dependent3,4, is potentially vulnerable to climate change, although precisely where and to what extent remains relatively unexplored. In this study, we assess climate-based threats to global pastures, with a specific focus on changes in within- and between-year precipitation variability (precipitation concentration index (PCI) and coefficient of variation of precipitation (CVP), respectively). Relating global satellite measures of vegetation greenness (such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index; NDVI) to key climatic factors reveals that CVP is a significant, yet often overlooked, constraint on vegetation productivity across global pastures. Using independent stocking data, we found that areas with high CVP support lower livestock densities than less-variable regions. Globally, pastures experience about a 25% greater year-to-year precipitation variation (CVP = 0.27) than the average global land surface area (0.21). Over the past century, CVP has generally increased across pasture areas, although both positive (49% of pasture area) and negative (31% of pasture area) trends exist. We identify regions in which livestock grazing is important for local food access and economies, and discuss the potential for pasture intensification in the context of long-term regional trends in precipitation variability.

  20. Global risk of big earthquakes has not recently increased.

    Shearer, Peter M; Stark, Philip B

    2012-01-17

    The recent elevated rate of large earthquakes has fueled concern that the underlying global rate of earthquake activity has increased, which would have important implications for assessments of seismic hazard and our understanding of how faults interact. We examine the timing of large (magnitude M≥7) earthquakes from 1900 to the present, after removing local clustering related to aftershocks. The global rate of M≥8 earthquakes has been at a record high roughly since 2004, but rates have been almost as high before, and the rate of smaller earthquakes is close to its historical average. Some features of the global catalog are improbable in retrospect, but so are some features of most random sequences--if the features are selected after looking at the data. For a variety of magnitude cutoffs and three statistical tests, the global catalog, with local clusters removed, is not distinguishable from a homogeneous Poisson process. Moreover, no plausible physical mechanism predicts real changes in the underlying global rate of large events. Together these facts suggest that the global risk of large earthquakes is no higher today than it has been in the past.

  1. Pandemic influenza A (H1N1)

    ... in Port Shepstone, South Africa. Introduction. Influenza A (H1N1) 2009 'swine flu' variant is currently a global pandemic.1 The infection associated with this virus is usually a mild, self-limiting illness. However, it may progress to severe pneumonia requiring intensive care unit (ICU) therapy in 31% of patients.2 This may.

  2. How warm days increase belief in global warming

    Zaval, Lisa; Keenan, Elizabeth A.; Johnson, Eric J.; Weber, Elke U.

    2014-02-01

    Climate change judgements can depend on whether today seems warmer or colder than usual, termed the local warming effect. Although previous research has demonstrated that this effect occurs, studies have yet to explain why or how temperature abnormalities influence global warming attitudes. A better understanding of the underlying psychology of this effect can help explain the public's reaction to climate change and inform approaches used to communicate the phenomenon. Across five studies, we find evidence of attribute substitution, whereby individuals use less relevant but available information (for example, today's temperature) in place of more diagnostic but less accessible information (for example, global climate change patterns) when making judgements. Moreover, we rule out alternative hypotheses involving climate change labelling and lay mental models. Ultimately, we show that present temperature abnormalities are given undue weight and lead to an overestimation of the frequency of similar past events, thereby increasing belief in and concern for global warming.

  3. Global health-related publications in otolaryngology are increasing.

    Chambers, Kyle J; Creighton, Francis; Abdul-Aziz, Dunia; Cheney, Mack; Randolph, Gregory W

    2015-04-01

    Determine trends in global health-related publication in otolaryngology. A review of research databases. A search of publications available on PubMed and nine additional databases was undertaken reviewing two time periods 10 years apart for the timeframes 1998 to 2002 (early time period) and 2008 to 2012 (recent time period) using specific search terms to identify global health-related publications in otolaryngology. Publications were examined for region of origin, subspecialty, type of publication, and evidence of international collaboration. χ and t test analyses were used to identify trends. In the 1998 to 2002 time period, a total of 26 publications met inclusion criteria for the study, with a mean of 5.2 ± 2.8 publications per year. In the 2008 to 2012 time period, a total of 61 publications met inclusion criteria, with a mean of 12.3 ± 5.6 publications per year. The 235% increase in global health-related publications identified between the two study periods was statistically significant (P = .02). The absolute number of publications in which collaboration occurred between countries increased from three in the early time period to nine the recent time period. There has been a significant increase in the volume of global health-related publications in English language otolaryngology journals over the past decade, providing strong evidence of the increasing trend of global health as an academic pursuit within the field of otolaryngology. © 2014 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

  4. Ethics for pandemics beyond influenza: Ebola, drug-resistant tuberculosis, and anticipating future ethical challenges in pandemic preparedness and response.

    Smith, Maxwell J; Silva, Diego S

    2015-01-01

    The unprecedented outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa has raised several novel ethical issues for global outbreak preparedness. It has also illustrated that familiar ethical issues in infectious disease management endure despite considerable efforts to understand and mitigate such issues in the wake of past outbreaks. To improve future global outbreak preparedness and response, we must examine these shortcomings and reflect upon the current state of ethical preparedness. To this end, we focus our efforts in this article on the examination of one substantial area: ethical guidance in pandemic plans. We argue that, due in part to their focus on considerations arising specifically in relation to pandemics of influenza origin, pandemic plans and their existing ethical guidance are ill-equipped to anticipate and facilitate the navigation of unique ethical challenges that may arise in other infectious disease pandemics. We proceed by outlining three reasons why this is so, and situate our analysis in the context of the EVD outbreak and the threat posed by drug-resistant tuberculosis: (1) different infectious diseases have distinct characteristics that challenge anticipated or existing modes of pandemic prevention, preparedness, response, and recovery, (2) clear, transparent, context-specific ethical reasoning and justification within current influenza pandemic plans are lacking, and (3) current plans neglect the context of how other significant pandemics may manifest. We conclude the article with several options for reflecting upon and ultimately addressing ethical issues that may emerge with different infectious disease pandemics.

  5. Increasing Global Competitiveness: A Case for the Pakistan Economy

    Shamyla Chaudry

    2007-01-01

    The issue of global competitiveness is critical for developing countries. This paper looks at the drivers that influence industrial competitiveness and provides a comparison of these drivers for Pakistan, India and China. The analysis shows that Pakistan lags behind China and India in most of the main components of the industrial competitiveness index. The analysis also presents a series of micro and macro level policy recommendations aimed at increasing Pakistan’s industrial competitiveness.

  6. Are Global Economic Losses from Natural Hazards Increasing?

    McMullan, Caroline; Simic, Milan; Tosco, Antonello; Latchman, Shane

    2016-04-01

    Global society has long been influenced by natural hazards, but it has been widely noted that the economic cost of natural hazards has been rising rapidly over recent decades. This upward trend highlights the increasing exposure of the global economy to natural hazards and the need for society to understand the driving factors to help improve the resilience of communities. However disaster risk is driven by a plethora of factors, including population, wealth, land-use, and demographics. Consider also the natural variability in the frequency and severity of events, climate change, and implementation of resilience policies, and it becomes clear that disaster-risk management is a challenging field. To investigate the apparent upward trend in reported annual economic losses from natural disasters, socioeconomic factors known to influence the magnitude of losses must first be accounted for. Adjustment for these factors, known as loss normalisation, aims to estimate the losses sustained if historical events were to impact present day society. We have undertaken a detailed assessment of global economic losses from natural disasters for the period 1995 through 2013. Although the studied time-period is relatively short, expanding the investigated period would not necessarily produce more reliable insights owing to the inherent difficulty in obtaining accurate economic loss estimates for earlier periods and the challenge of finding consistent and reliable sources of socioeconomic data for the normalisation process. The results of the study, presented at a global and regional level, appear to suggest that the main driver of perceived increase in economic losses over the last ~20 years was the development of nations' economies (i.e. increase in population and wealth/GDP) and not in the natural hazards themselves. As populations all over the world migrate into areas of higher natural hazards regions (e.g. coastal areas or floodplain zones) and global wealth continues to

  7. Comprehensive global amino acid sequence analysis of PB1F2 protein of influenza A H5N1 viruses and the influenza A virus subtypes responsible for the 20th-century pandemics.

    Pasricha, Gunisha; Mishra, Akhilesh C; Chakrabarti, Alok K

    2013-07-01

    PB1F2 is the 11th protein of influenza A virus translated from +1 alternate reading frame of PB1 gene. Since the discovery, varying sizes and functions of the PB1F2 protein of influenza A viruses have been reported. Selection of PB1 gene segment in the pandemics, variable size and pleiotropic effect of PB1F2 intrigued us to analyze amino acid sequences of this protein in various influenza A viruses. Amino acid sequences for PB1F2 protein of influenza A H5N1, H1N1, H2N2, and H3N2 subtypes were obtained from Influenza Research Database. Multiple sequence alignments of the PB1F2 protein sequences of the aforementioned subtypes were used to determine the size, variable and conserved domains and to perform mutational analysis. Analysis showed that 96·4% of the H5N1 influenza viruses harbored full-length PB1F2 protein. Except for the 2009 pandemic H1N1 virus, all the subtypes of the 20th-century pandemic influenza viruses contained full-length PB1F2 protein. Through the years, PB1F2 protein of the H1N1 and H3N2 viruses has undergone much variation. PB1F2 protein sequences of H5N1 viruses showed both human- and avian host-specific conserved domains. Global database of PB1F2 protein revealed that N66S mutation was present only in 3·8% of the H5N1 strains. We found a novel mutation, N84S in the PB1F2 protein of 9·35% of the highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 influenza viruses. Varying sizes and mutations of the PB1F2 protein in different influenza A virus subtypes with pandemic potential were obtained. There was genetic divergence of the protein in various hosts which highlighted the host-specific evolution of the virus. However, studies are required to correlate this sequence variability with the virulence and pathogenicity. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Lessons from pandemic influenza A(H1N1): the research-based vaccine industry's perspective.

    Abelin, Atika; Colegate, Tony; Gardner, Stephen; Hehme, Norbert; Palache, Abraham

    2011-02-01

    As A(H1N1) influenza enters the post-pandemic phase, health authorities around the world are reviewing the response to the pandemic. To ensure this process enhances future preparations, it is essential that perspectives are included from all relevant stakeholders, including vaccine manufacturers. This paper outlines the contribution of R&D-based influenza vaccine producers to the pandemic response, and explores lessons that can be learned to improve future preparedness. The emergence of 2009 A(H1N1) influenza led to unprecedented collaboration between global health authorities, scientists and manufacturers, resulting in the most comprehensive pandemic response ever undertaken, with a number of vaccines approved for use three months after the pandemic declaration. This response was only possible because of the extensive preparations undertaken during the last decade. During this period, manufacturers greatly increased influenza vaccine production capacity, and estimates suggest a further doubling of capacity by 2014. Producers also introduced cell-culture technology, while adjuvant and whole virion technologies significantly reduced pandemic vaccine antigen content. This substantially increased pandemic vaccine production capacity, which in July 2009 WHO estimated reached 4.9 billion doses per annum. Manufacturers also worked with health authorities to establish risk management plans for robust vaccine surveillance during the pandemic. Individual producers pledged significant donations of vaccine doses and tiered-pricing approaches for developing country supply. Based on the pandemic experience, a number of improvements would strengthen future preparedness. Technical improvements to rapidly select optimal vaccine viruses, and processes to speed up vaccine standardization, could accelerate and extend vaccine availability. Establishing vaccine supply agreements beforehand would avoid the need for complex discussions during a period of intense time pressure. Enhancing

  9. Potential Increasing Dominance of Heterotrophy in the Global Ocean

    Kvale, K.; Meissner, K. J.; Keller, D. P.

    2016-02-01

    Autotrophs are largely limited by resources in the modern ocean. However, standard metabolic theory suggests continued ocean warming could globally benefit heterotrophs, thereby reducing autotrophic nutrient limitation. The paleo record as well as modern observations offer evidence this has happened in the past and could happen again. Increasing dominance of heterotrophs would result in strong nutrient recycling in the upper ocean and high rates of net primary production (NPP), yet low carbon export to the deep ocean and sediments. We describe the transition towards such a state in the early 22nd century as a response to business-as-usual Representative Concentration Pathway forcing (RCP8.5) in an intermediate complexity Earth system model in three configurations: with and without an explicit calcifier phytoplankton class and calcite ballast model. In all models nutrient regeneration in the near surface becomes an increasingly important driver of primary production. The near-linear relationship between changes in NPP and global sea surface temperature (SST) found over the 21st century becomes exponential above a 2-4 °C global mean SST change. This transition to a more heterotrophic ocean agrees roughly with metabolic theory. Inclusion of small phytoplankton and calcifiers increase the model NPP:SST sensitivity because of their relatively higher nutrient affinity than general phytoplankton. Accounting for organic carbon "protected" from remineralization by carbonate ballast mitigates the exponential increase in NPP and provides an increasingly important pathway for deep carbon export with higher SST changes, despite simultaneous increasing carbonate dissolution rates due to ocean acidification.

  10. Drivers And Uncertainties Of Increasing Global Water Scarcity

    Scherer, L.; Pfister, S.

    2015-12-01

    Water scarcity threatens ecosystems and human health and hampers economic development. It generally depends on the ratio of water consumption to availability. We calculated global, spatially explicit water stress indices (WSIs) which describe the vulnerability to additional water consumption on a scale from 0 (low) to 1 (high) and compare them for the decades 1981-1990 and 2001-2010. Input data are obtained from a multi-model ensemble at a resolution of 0.5 degrees. The variability among the models was used to run 1000 Monte Carlo simulations (latin hypercube sampling) and to subsequently estimate uncertainties of the WSIs. Globally, a trend of increasing water scarcity can be observed, however, uncertainties are large. The probability that this trend is actually occurring is as low as 53%. The increase in WSIs is rather driven by higher water use than lower water availability. Water availability is only 40% likely to decrease whereas water consumption is 67% likely to increase. Independent from the trend, we are already living under water scarce conditions, which is reflected in a consumption-weighted average of monthly WSIs of 0.51 in the recent decade. Its coefficient of variation points with 0.8 to the high uncertainties entailed, which might still hide poor model performance where all models consistently over- or underestimate water availability or use. Especially in arid areas, models generally overestimate availability. Although we do not traverse the planetary boundary of freshwater use as global water availability is sufficient, local water scarcity might be high. Therefore the regionalized assessment of WSIs under uncertainty helps to focus on specific regions to optimise water consumption. These global results can also help to raise awareness of water scarcity, and to suggest relevant measures such as more water efficient technologies to international companies, which have to deal with complex and distributed supply chains (e.g. in food production).

  11. Impact of antiviral treatment and hospital admission delay on risk of death associated with 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic influenza in Mexico

    Chowell Gerardo

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Increasing our understanding of the factors affecting the severity of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in different regions of the world could lead to improved clinical practice and mitigation strategies for future influenza pandemics. Even though a number of studies have shed light into the risk factors associated with severe outcomes of 2009 A/H1N1 influenza infections in different populations (e.g., [1-5], analyses of the determinants of mortality risk spanning multiple pandemic waves and geographic regions are scarce. Between-country differences in the mortality burden of the 2009 pandemic could be linked to differences in influenza case management, underlying population health, or intrinsic differences in disease transmission [6]. Additional studies elucidating the determinants of disease severity globally are warranted to guide prevention efforts in future influenza pandemics. In Mexico, the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic was characterized by a three-wave pattern occurring in the spring, summer, and fall of 2009 with substantial geographical heterogeneity [7]. A recent study suggests that Mexico experienced high excess mortality burden during the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic relative to other countries [6]. However, an assessment of potential factors that contributed to the relatively high pandemic death toll in Mexico are lacking. Here, we fill this gap by analyzing a large series of laboratory-confirmed A/H1N1 influenza cases, hospitalizations, and deaths monitored by the Mexican Social Security medical system during April 1 through December 31, 2009 in Mexico. In particular, we quantify the association between disease severity, hospital admission delays, and neuraminidase inhibitor use by demographic characteristics, pandemic wave, and geographic regions of Mexico. Methods We analyzed a large series of laboratory-confirmed pandemic A/H1N1 influenza cases from a prospective surveillance system maintained by the

  12. Updated preparedness and response framework for influenza pandemics.

    Holloway, Rachel; Rasmussen, Sonja A; Zaza, Stephanie; Cox, Nancy J; Jernigan, Daniel B

    2014-09-26

    The complexities of planning for and responding to the emergence of novel influenza viruses emphasize the need for systematic frameworks to describe the progression of the event; weigh the risk of emergence and potential public health impact; evaluate transmissibility, antiviral resistance, and severity; and make decisions about interventions. On the basis of experience from recent influenza responses, CDC has updated its framework to describe influenza pandemic progression using six intervals (two prepandemic and four pandemic intervals) and eight domains. This updated framework can be used for influenza pandemic planning and serves as recommendations for risk assessment, decision-making, and action in the United States. The updated framework replaces the U.S. federal government stages from the 2006 implementation plan for the National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza (US Homeland Security Council. National strategy for pandemic influenza: implementation plan. Washington, DC: US Homeland Security Council; 2006. Available at http://www.flu.gov/planning-preparedness/federal/pandemic-influenza-implementation.pdf). The six intervals of the updated framework are as follows: 1) investigation of cases of novel influenza, 2) recognition of increased potential for ongoing transmission, 3) initiation of a pandemic wave, 4) acceleration of a pandemic wave, 5) deceleration of a pandemic wave, and 6) preparation for future pandemic waves. The following eight domains are used to organize response efforts within each interval: incident management, surveillance and epidemiology, laboratory, community mitigation, medical care and countermeasures, vaccine, risk communications, and state/local coordination. Compared with the previous U.S. government stages, this updated framework provides greater detail and clarity regarding the potential timing of key decisions and actions aimed at slowing the spread and mitigating the impact of an emerging pandemic. Use of this updated framework is

  13. The age distribution of mortality due to influenza: pandemic and peri-pandemic

    2012-01-01

    Background Pandemic influenza is said to 'shift mortality' to younger age groups; but also to spare a subpopulation of the elderly population. Does one of these effects dominate? Might this have important ramifications? Methods We estimated age-specific excess mortality rates for all-years for which data were available in the 20th century for Australia, Canada, France, Japan, the UK, and the USA for people older than 44 years of age. We modeled variation with age, and standardized estimates to allow direct comparison across age groups and countries. Attack rate data for four pandemics were assembled. Results For nearly all seasons, an exponential model characterized mortality data extremely well. For seasons of emergence and a variable number of seasons following, however, a subpopulation above a threshold age invariably enjoyed reduced mortality. 'Immune escape', a stepwise increase in mortality among the oldest elderly, was observed a number of seasons after both the A(H2N2) and A(H3N2) pandemics. The number of seasons from emergence to escape varied by country. For the latter pandemic, mortality rates in four countries increased for younger age groups but only in the season following that of emergence. Adaptation to both emergent viruses was apparent as a progressive decrease in mortality rates, which, with two exceptions, was seen only in younger age groups. Pandemic attack rate variation with age was estimated to be similar across four pandemics with very different mortality impact. Conclusions In all influenza pandemics of the 20th century, emergent viruses resembled those that had circulated previously within the lifespan of then-living people. Such individuals were relatively immune to the emergent strain, but this immunity waned with mutation of the emergent virus. An immune subpopulation complicates and may invalidate vaccine trials. Pandemic influenza does not 'shift' mortality to younger age groups; rather, the mortality level is reset by the virulence

  14. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...

  15. Influenza pandemic planning guide

    NONE

    2006-11-15

    An influenza pandemic will have serious economic impacts on the natural gas industry due to absenteeism as well as downstream effects due to supply disruption.This guide was prepared to assist gas distribution companies in planning for an influenza epidemic. The guide aimed to minimize the risks that an influenza pandemic might pose to the health and safety of employees and the continuity of business operations. The guide discussed 5 critical aspects of emergency planning: (1) prevention and threat mitigation; (2) preparedness; (3) response; (4) business continuity; and (5) communication. The legal context of the emergency plans were discussed. The plans were also discussed to other essential infrastructure emergency response plans. Recommendations were presented for infection control, decentralization and access restriction. Outlines for pandemic response planning teams and training and exercise programs were provided. Issues related to alert, mobilization, and response procedures were also discussed. 10 refs., 3 tabs., 1 fig.

  16. Crying wolf? Biosecurity and metacommunication in the context of the 2009 swine flu pandemic.

    Nerlich, Brigitte; Koteyko, Nelya

    2012-07-01

    This article explores how the 2009 pandemic of swine flu (H1N1) intersected with issues of biosecurity in the context of an increasing entanglement between the spread of disease and the spread of information. Drawing on research into metacommunication, the article studies the rise of communication about ways in which swine flu was communicated, both globally and locally, during the pandemic. It examines and compares two corpora of texts, namely UK newspaper articles and blogs, written between 28 March and 11 June 2009, that is, the period from the start of the outbreak till the WHO announcement of the pandemic. Findings show that the interaction between traditional and digital media as well as the interaction between warnings about swine flu and previous warnings about other epidemics contributed to a heightened discourse of blame and counter-blame but also, more surprisingly, self-blame and reflections about the role the media in pandemic communication. The consequences of this increase in metacommunication for research into crisis communication are explored. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Management of natural and bioterrorism induced pandemics.

    Tyshenko, Michael G

    2007-09-01

    A recent approach for bioterrorism risk management calls for stricter regulations over biotechnology as a way to control subversion of technology that may be used to create a man-made pandemic. This approach is largely unworkable given the increasing pervasiveness of molecular techniques and tools throughout society. Emerging technology has provided the tools to design much deadlier pathogens but concomitantly the ability to respond to emerging pandemics to reduce mortality has also improved significantly in recent decades. In its historical context determining just how 'risky' biological weapons is an important consideration for decision making and resource allocation. Management should attempt to increase capacity, share resources, provide accurate infectious disease reporting, deliver information transparency and improve communications to help mitigate the magnitude of future pandemics.

  18. Mathematical Assessment of Canada’s Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Plan

    Abba B Gumel

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: The presence of the highly pathogenic avian H5N1 virus in wild bird populations in several regions of the world, together with recurrent cases of H5N1 influenza arising primarily from direct contact with poultry, have highlighted the urgent need for prepared-ness and coordinated global strategies to effectively combat a potential influenza pandemic. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the Canadian pandemic influenza preparedness plan.

  19. Unrealized Global Temperature Increase: Implications of Current Uncertainties

    Schwartz, Stephen E.

    2018-04-01

    Unrealized increase in global mean surface air temperature (GMST) may result from the climate system not being in steady state with forcings and/or from cessation of negative aerosol forcing that would result from decreases in emissions. An observation-constrained method is applied to infer the dependence of Earth's climate sensitivity on forcing by anthropogenic aerosols within the uncertainty on that forcing given by the Fifth (2013) Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Within these uncertainty ranges the increase in GMST due to temperature lag for future forcings held constant is slight (0.09-0.19 K over 20 years; 0.12-0.26 K over 100 years). However, the incremental increase in GMST that would result from a hypothetical abrupt cessation of sources of aerosols could be quite large but is highly uncertain, 0.1-1.3 K over 20 years. Decrease in CO2 abundance and forcing following abrupt cessation of emissions would offset these increases in GMST over 100 years by as little as 0.09 K to as much as 0.8 K. The uncertainties quantified here greatly limit confidence in projections of change in GMST that would result from any strategy for future reduction of emissions.

  20. Characteristic of pandemic virus

    First page Back Continue Last page Graphics. Characteristic of pandemic virus. The virus was highly transmissible. Risk of hospitalization was 2X and risk of death was about 11X more in comparison to seasonal influenza. Virus continues to be susceptible to Osaltamivir, the only drug available. Vaccines are available but ...

  1. Surveillance of illness associated with pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus infection among adults using a global clinical site network approach: the INSIGHT FLU 002 and FLU 003 studies

    Dwyer, Dominic E; Nielsen, Henrik Ib

    2011-01-01

    The novel pandemic influenza A (H1H1) 2009 virus spread rapidly around the world in 2009. The paucity of prospective international epidemiologic data on predictors of clinical outcomes with pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus infection stimulated the INSIGHT network, an international network of community...... and hospital-based investigators, to commence two worldwide clinical observational studies to describe pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus activity. The purpose of these two studies was to estimate the percent of adult patients with illness due to laboratory-confirmed pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus infection...

  2. Role of stranded gas in increasing global gas supplies

    Attanasi, E.D.; Freeman, P.A.

    2013-01-01

    This report synthesizes the findings of three regional studies in order to evaluate, at the global scale, the contribution that stranded gas resources can make to global natural gas supplies. Stranded gas, as defined for this study, is natural gas in discovered conventional gas and oil fields that is currently not commercially producible for either physical or economic reasons. The regional studies evaluated the cost of bringing the large volumes of undeveloped gas in stranded gas fields to selected markets. In particular, stranded gas fields of selected Atlantic Basin countries, north Africa, Russia, and central Asia are screened to determine whether the volumes are sufficient to meet Europe’s increasing demand for gas imports. Stranded gas fields in Russia, central Asia, Southeast Asia, and Australia are also screened to estimate development, production, and transport costs and corresponding gas volumes that could be supplied to Asian markets in China, India, Japan, and South Korea. The data and cost analysis presented here suggest that for the European market and the markets examined in Asia, the development of stranded gas provides a way to meet projected gas import demands for the 2020-to-2040 period. Although this is a reconnaissance-type appraisal, it is based on volumes of gas that are associated with individual identified fields. Individual field data were carefully examined. Some fields were not evaluated because current technology was insufficient or it appeared the gas was likely to be held off the export market. Most of the evaluated stranded gas can be produced and delivered to markets at costs comparable to historical prices. Moreover, the associated volumes of gas are sufficient to provide an interim supply while additional technologies are developed to unlock gas diffused in shale and hydrates or while countries transition to making a greater use of renewable energy sources.

  3. Influenza Pandemics: Past, Present and Future

    Yu-Chia Hsieh

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Influenza A virus is well known for its capability for genetic changes either through antigen drift or antigen shift. Antigen shift is derived from reassortment of gene segments between viruses, and may result in an antigenically novel virus that is capable of causing a worldwide pandemic. As we trace backwards through the history of influenza pandemics, a repeating pattern can be observed, namely, a limited wave in the first year followed by global spread in the following year. In the 20th century alone, there were three overwhelming pandemics, in 1918, 1957 and 1968, caused by H1N1 (Spanish flu, H2N2 (Asian flu and H3N2 (Hong Kong flu, respectively. In 1957 and 1968, excess mortality was noted in infants, the elderly and persons with chronic diseases, similar to what occurred during interpandemic periods. In 1918, there was one distinct peak of excess death in young adults aged between 20 and 40 years old; leukopenia and hemorrhage were prominent features. Acute pulmonary edema and hemorrhagic pneumonia contributed to rapidly lethal outcome in young adults. Autopsies disclosed multiple-organ involvement, including pericarditis, myocarditis, hepatitis and splenomegaly. These findings are, in part, consistent with clinical manifestations of human infection with avian influenza A H5N1 virus, in which reactive hemophagocytic syndrome was a characteristic pathologic finding that accounted for pancytopenia, abnormal liver function and multiple organ failure. All the elements of an impending pandemic are in place. Unless effective measures are implemented, we will likely observe a pandemic in the coming seasons. Host immune response plays a crucial role in disease caused by newly emerged influenza virus, such as the 1918 pandemic strain and the recent avian H5N1 strain. Sustained activation of lymphocytes and macrophages after infection results in massive cytokine response, thus leading to severe systemic inflammation. Further investigations into how

  4. Bogoch Replikins Pandemic Prevention: Increase of Strain-Specific Influenza Genomic Replikin Counts, Having Predicted Outbreaks and their Location Seven Times Consecutively, Up to Two Years in Advance, Provides Time for Prevention of Pandemics

    Samuel Bogoch; Elenore S. Bogoch

    2012-01-01

    Earlier studies have shown that the increased concentration of a new class of virus genomic peptides, Replikins, precedes and predicts virus outbreaks. We now find that the area in the genome of the highest concentration of Replikins, and the country in which this peak exists in scout viruses, have permitted in the past five years seven consecutive accurate predictions of the geographic localization of coming outbreaks, including those now realized in Mexico for H1N1, and in Cambodia for H5N1...

  5. Increasing global participation in genetics research through DNA barcoding.

    Adamowicz, Sarah J; Steinke, Dirk

    2015-12-01

    DNA barcoding--the sequencing of short, standardized DNA regions for specimen identification and species discovery--has promised to facilitate rapid access to biodiversity knowledge by diverse users. Here, we advance our opinion that increased global participation in genetics research is beneficial, both to scientists and for science, and explore the premise that DNA barcoding can help to democratize participation in genetics research. We examine publication patterns (2003-2014) in the DNA barcoding literature and compare trends with those in the broader, related domain of genomics. While genomics is the older and much larger field, the number of nations contributing to the published literature is similar between disciplines. Meanwhile, DNA barcoding exhibits a higher pace of growth in the number of publications as well as greater evenness among nations in their proportional contribution to total authorships. This exploration revealed DNA barcoding to be a highly international discipline, with growing participation by researchers in especially biodiverse nations. We briefly consider several of the challenges that may hinder further participation in genetics research, including access to training and molecular facilities as well as policy relating to the movement of genetic resources.

  6. "Is it Going to be Real?" Narrative and Media on a Pandemic

    Mark Davis

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this article, I examine the narrative-media nexus as it relates to pandemics. Communications feature in global public health efforts to address the emergence of a pandemic, an event typically marked by the proliferation of news stories. Pandemics are also a perennial subject of film, television, literature and online games and pandemic narratives travel across and blend the genres of science fiction, alien invasion and zombie horror. Underlining this genre-blending, public health communication on pandemics has appropriated the figure of the zombie to encourage interest in preparation for pandemic threats. Drawing on examples from public communications and popular culture in dialogue with interviews and focus groups conducted with health professionals and members of the general public, I advance an account of the transmediated knowledge and meanings of pandemic narrative. I examine how pandemics become objects of knowledge in narrative, the ways in which narrative is appropriated to communicate a pandemic's temporal and affective qualities, and how, in the circumstances of an actual outbreak, publics are invited to consider themselves as the ideal, "alert, but not alarmed" subjects of the pandemic storyworld. URN: http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0114-fqs1701187

  7. BUILDING A SUSTAINABLE ENTREPRENEURSHIP IN INCREASING GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS

    NABABAN, TONGAM SIHOL

    2014-01-01

    Global Entrepreneurship and Development Index or the Global Entrepreneurship and Development Index (GEDI) In 2013 positioned Indonesia at ranked 76 of 118 countries. Compared with the ASEAN countries, the position are still far below Singapore (13), and still below Malaysia (57), Brunei Darussalam (58), Thailand (65). This fact shows that Indonesia has not been optimal in building its entrepreneurial yet. To enhance the development of entrepreneurship, the Indonesian government has launched a...

  8. Response to the 2009-H1N1 influenza pandemic in the Mekong Basin: surveys of country health leaders

    Dausey David J

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Soon after the 2009-H1N1 virus emerged as the first influenza pandemic in 41 years, countries had an early opportunity to test their preparedness plans, protocols and procedures, including their cooperation with other countries in responding to the global pandemic threat. The Mekong Basin Disease Surveillance cooperation (MBDS comprises six countries - Cambodia, China (Yunnan and Guangxi Provinces, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam - that formally organized themselves in 2001 to cooperate in disease surveillance and control. The pandemic presented an opportunity to assess their responses in light of their individual and joint planning. We conducted two surveys of the MBDS leadership from each country, early during the pandemic and shortly after it ended. Results On average, participants rated their country's pandemic response performance as good in both 2009 and 2010. Post-pandemic (2010, perceived performance quality was best for facility-based interventions (overall mean of 4.2 on a scale from 1 = poor to 5 = excellent, followed by surveillance and information sharing (4.1, risk communications (3.9 and disease prevention and control in communities (3.7. Performance was consistently rated as good or excellent for use of hotlines for case reporting (2010 mean of 4.4 and of selected facility-based interventions (each with a 2010 mean of 4.4: using hospital admission criteria, preparing or using isolation areas, using PPE for healthcare workers and using antiviral drugs for treatment. In at least half the countries, the post-pandemic ratings were lower than initial 2009 assessments for performance related to surveillance, facility-based interventions and risk communications. Conclusions MBDS health leaders perceived their pandemic responses effective in areas previously considered problematic. Most felt that MBDS cooperation helped drive and thus added value to their efforts. Surveillance capacity

  9. Social justice in pandemic preparedness.

    DeBruin, Debra; Liaschenko, Joan; Marshall, Mary Faith

    2012-04-01

    Pandemic influenza planning in the United States violates the demands of social justice in 2 fundamental respects: it embraces the neutrality of procedural justice at the expense of more substantive concern with health disparities, thus perpetuating a predictable and preventable social injustice, and it fails to move beyond lament to practical planning for alleviating barriers to accessing care. A pragmatic social justice approach, addressing both health disparities and access barriers, should inform pandemic preparedness. Achieving social justice goals in pandemic response is challenging, but strategies are available to overcome the obstacles. The public engagement process of one state's pandemic ethics project influenced the development of these strategies.

  10. Combination strategies for pandemic influenza response - a systematic review of mathematical modeling studies

    Lee Vernon J

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Individual strategies in pandemic preparedness plans may not reduce the impact of an influenza pandemic. Methods We searched modeling publications through PubMed and associated references from 1990 to 30 September 2009. Inclusion criteria were modeling papers quantifying the effectiveness of combination strategies, both pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical. Results Nineteen modeling papers on combination strategies were selected. Four studies examined combination strategies on a global scale, 14 on single countries, and one on a small community. Stochastic individual-based modeling was used in nine studies, stochastic meta-population modeling in five, and deterministic compartmental modeling in another five. As part of combination strategies, vaccination was explored in eight studies, antiviral prophylaxis and/or treatment in 16, area or household quarantine in eight, case isolation in six, social distancing measures in 10 and air travel restriction in six studies. Two studies suggested a high probability of successful influenza epicenter containment with combination strategies under favorable conditions. During a pandemic, combination strategies delayed spread, reduced overall number of cases, and delayed and reduced peak attack rate more than individual strategies. Combination strategies remained effective at high reproductive numbers compared with single strategy. Global cooperative strategies, including redistribution of antiviral drugs, were effective in reducing the global impact and attack rates of pandemic influenza. Conclusion Combination strategies increase the effectiveness of individual strategies. They include pharmaceutical (antiviral agents, antibiotics and vaccines and non-pharmaceutical interventions (case isolation, quarantine, personal hygiene measures, social distancing and travel restriction. Local epidemiological and modeling studies are needed to validate efficacy and feasibility.

  11. The threat of pandemic influenza: are we ready? : workshop summary

    Knobler, Stacey

    2005-01-01

    Public health officials and organizations around the world remain on high alert because of increasing concerns about the prospect of an influenza pandemic, which many experts believe to be inevitable...

  12. Hospital Employee Willingness to Work during Earthquakes Versus Pandemics.

    Charney, Rachel L; Rebmann, Terri; Flood, Robert G

    2015-11-01

    Research indicates that licensed health care workers are less willing to work during a pandemic and that the willingness of nonlicensed staff to work has had limited assessment. We sought to assess and compare the willingness to work in all hospital workers during pandemics and earthquakes. An online survey was distributed to Missouri hospital employees. Participants were presented with 2 disaster scenarios (pandemic influenza and earthquake); willingness, ability, and barriers to work were measured. T tests compared willingness to work during a pandemic vs. an earthquake. Multivariate linear regression analyses were conducted to describe factors associated with a higher willingness to work. One thousand eight hundred twenty-two employees participated (15% response rate). More willingness to work was reported for an earthquake than a pandemic (93.3% vs. 84.8%; t = 17.1; p pandemic (83.5%; t = 17.1; p pandemic willingness to work were as follows: 1) no children ≤3 years of age; 2) older children; 3) working full-time; 4) less concern for family; 5) less fear of job loss; and 6) vaccine availability. Earthquake willingness factors included: 1) not having children with special needs and 2) not working a different role. Improving care for dependent family members, worker protection, cross training, and job importance education may increase willingness to work during disasters. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Globalization Then and Now: Increasing Scale Reduces Local Sustainability

    Joseph A. Tainter

    2006-01-01

    One consequence of globalization is that parts of the world that were once remote and minimally influenced by broader political and economic developments now find themselves profoundly affected by forces beyond their comprehension. Communities that were once self-sufficient and resilient come to depend on larger systems, no longer control their own destinies, and...

  14. rapid increase in precaution The global financial crisis: origin ...

    user

    2010-05-01

    May 1, 2010 ... provoked a global flight on quality, caused firms to cut back on ... despite coordinated easing of monetary policy by governments and trillions ... indicated in the scope of the study, the discussions will be based on financial .... financial investors in decision making, which would overvalue asset prices in.

  15. Towards Increased Engagement of Geoscientists in Global Development Frameworks

    Gill, Joel

    2016-04-01

    Geoscientists have the potential to make a significant contribution to tackling some of the major socio-environmental challenges of today, including extreme poverty, sustainable development, disaster risk reduction and climate change. This presentation explores the importance and social responsibility of geoscientists to engage in such work through understanding and supporting key global development frameworks. During 2015 the international community agreed three important agendas for change. Each framework relates to the intersection of environmental processes with human activities and behaviours, addressing significant challenges affecting society. The frameworks are (i) the UN Global Goals for Sustainable Development, (ii) the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, and (iii) subject to final confirmation at the time of writing, an agreement on climate change at the Paris Conference of the Parties - COP21. The UN Global Goals for Sustainable Development, for example, includes 17 goals aiming to end extreme poverty, fight inequality and ensure environmental sustainability. Specific goals relate to clean water and sanitation, clean and affordable energy, the development of resilient infrastructure, and the need for climate action. Given this context, here (i) a synthesis is presented of the role of geoscience in successfully achieving these major global development frameworks agreed in 2015, (ii) the ethical and social understanding that underpins effective engagement by geoscientists in the science-policy-practice interface is discussed, and (iii) this required ethical understanding is placed into the context of geoscience training and development needs. This approach demonstrates the importance of geoscientists from across all sectors and specialisms, engaging in the implementation, monitoring and evaluation of global development frameworks. It highlights the importance of a greater awareness and consideration of our ethical responsibilities in

  16. Antiviral resistance and the control of pandemic influenza.

    Marc Lipsitch

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The response to the next influenza pandemic will likely include extensive use of antiviral drugs (mainly oseltamivir, combined with other transmission-reducing measures. Animal and in vitro studies suggest that some strains of influenza may become resistant to oseltamivir while maintaining infectiousness (fitness. Use of antiviral agents on the scale anticipated for the control of pandemic influenza will create an unprecedented selective pressure for the emergence and spread of these strains. Nonetheless, antiviral resistance has received little attention when evaluating these plans.We designed and analyzed a deterministic compartmental model of the transmission of oseltamivir-sensitive and -resistant influenza infections during a pandemic. The model predicts that even if antiviral treatment or prophylaxis leads to the emergence of a transmissible resistant strain in as few as 1 in 50,000 treated persons and 1 in 500,000 prophylaxed persons, widespread use of antivirals may strongly promote the spread of resistant strains at the population level, leading to a prevalence of tens of percent by the end of a pandemic. On the other hand, even in circumstances in which a resistant strain spreads widely, the use of antivirals may significantly delay and/or reduce the total size of the pandemic. If resistant strains carry some fitness cost, then, despite widespread emergence of resistance, antivirals could slow pandemic spread by months or more, and buy time for vaccine development; this delay would be prolonged by nondrug control measures (e.g., social distancing that reduce transmission, or use of a stockpiled suboptimal vaccine. Surprisingly, the model suggests that such nondrug control measures would increase the proportion of the epidemic caused by resistant strains.The benefits of antiviral drug use to control an influenza pandemic may be reduced, although not completely offset, by drug resistance in the virus. Therefore, the risk of resistance

  17. Has globalization increased the synchronicity of international business cycles?

    Berge, Travis

    2012-01-01

    The past 30 years have been witness to an inexorable change in the degree to which economies are connected internationally. At the same time, the 2007-2008 recession was the first ‘global recession’ in decades. This article explores how international trade and cross-border holdings financial assets impact the synchronization of business cycles internationally. The paper begins by producing chronologies of business cycle turning points for a group of 32 major economies covering 40 years of his...

  18. Framing risk in pandemic influenza policy and control.

    Seetoh, Theresa; Liverani, Marco; Coker, Richard

    2012-01-01

    This article explores differing understandings of 'risk' in relation to pandemic influenza policy and control. After a preliminary overview of methodological and practical problems in risk analysis, ways in which risk was framed and managed in three historical cases were examined. The interdependence between scientific empiricism and political decision-making led to the mismanagement of the 1976 swine influenza scare in the USA. The 2004 H5N1 avian influenza outbreak in Thailand, on the other hand, was undermined by questions of national economic interest and concerns over global health security. Finally, the recent global emergency of pandemic influenza H1N1 in 2009 demonstrated the difficulties of risk management under a context of pre-established perceptions about the characteristics and inevitability of a pandemic. Following the analysis of these cases, a conceptual framework is presented to illustrate ways in which changing relationships between risk assessment, risk perception and risk management can result in differing policy strategies.

  19. Avian Influenza: a global threat needing a global solution

    Koh GCH

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract There have been three influenza pandemics since the 1900s, of which the 1919–1919 flu pandemic had the highest mortality rates. The influenza virus infects both humans and birds, and mutates using two mechanisms: antigenic drift and antigenic shift. Currently, the H5N1 avian flu virus is limited to outbreaks among poultry and persons in direct contact to infected poultry, but the mortality rate among infected humans is high. Avian influenza (AI is endemic in Asia as a result of unregulated poultry rearing in rural areas. Such birds often live in close proximity to humans and this increases the chance of genetic re-assortment between avian and human influenza viruses which may produce a mutant strain that is easily transmitted between humans. Once this happens, a global pandemic is likely. Unlike SARS, a person with influenza infection is contagious before the onset of case-defining symptoms which limits the effectiveness of case isolation as a control strategy. Researchers have shown that carefully orchestrated of public health measures could potentially limit the spread of an AI pandemic if implemented soon after the first cases appear. To successfully contain and control an AI pandemic, both national and global strategies are needed. National strategies include source surveillance and control, adequate stockpiles of anti-viral agents, timely production of flu vaccines and healthcare system readiness. Global strategies such as early integrated response, curbing the disease outbreak at source, utilization of global resources, continuing research and open communication are also critical.

  20. MEMBANGUN SUSTAINABLE ENTREPRENEURSHIP UNTUK MENINGKATKAN DAYA SAING GLOBAL (BUILDING A SUSTAINABLE ENTREPRENEURSHIP IN INCREASING GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS)

    NABABAN, TONGAM SIHOL

    2014-01-01

    Global Entrepreneurship and Development Index or the Global Entrepreneurship and Development Index (GEDI) In 2013 positioned Indonesia at ranked 76 of 118 countries. Compared with the ASEAN countries, the position are still far below Singapore (13), and still below Malaysia (57), Brunei Darussalam (58), Thailand (65). This fact shows that Indonesia has not been optimal in building its entrepreneurial yet. To enhance the development of entrepreneurship, the Indonesian government has launched ...

  1. Global variation in the cost of increasing ecosystem carbon

    Larjavaara, Markku; Kanninen, Markku; Gordillo, Harold; Koskinen, Joni; Kukkonen, Markus; Käyhkö, Niina; Larson, Anne M.; Wunder, Sven

    2018-01-01

    Slowing the reduction, or increasing the accumulation, of organic carbon stored in biomass and soils has been suggested as a potentially rapid and cost-effective method to reduce the rate of atmospheric carbon increase1. The costs of mitigating climate change by increasing ecosystem carbon relative to the baseline or business-as-usual scenario has been quantified in numerous studies, but results have been contradictory, as both methodological issues and substance differences cause variability2. Here we show, based on 77 standardized face-to-face interviews of local experts with the best possible knowledge of local land-use economics and sociopolitical context in ten landscapes around the globe, that the estimated cost of increasing ecosystem carbon varied vastly and was perceived to be 16-27 times cheaper in two Indonesian landscapes dominated by peatlands compared with the average of the eight other landscapes. Hence, if reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) and other land-use mitigation efforts are to be distributed evenly across forested countries, for example, for the sake of international equity, their overall effectiveness would be dramatically lower than for a cost-minimizing distribution.

  2. Influenza pandemics and avian flu

    Fleming, Douglas

    2005-01-01

    Douglas Fleming is general practitioner in a large suburban practice in Birmingham. In this article he seeks to clarify clinical issues relating to potential pandemics of influenza, including avian influenza

  3. Pandemic Influenza: Domestic Preparedness Efforts

    Lister, Sarah A

    2005-01-01

    .... Though influenza pandemics occur with some regularity, and the United States has been involved in specific planning efforts since the early 1990s, the H5N1 situation has created a sense of urgency...

  4. Stockpiling Ventilators for Influenza Pandemics.

    Huang, Hsin-Chan; Araz, Ozgur M; Morton, David P; Johnson, Gregory P; Damien, Paul; Clements, Bruce; Meyers, Lauren Ancel

    2017-06-01

    In preparing for influenza pandemics, public health agencies stockpile critical medical resources. Determining appropriate quantities and locations for such resources can be challenging, given the considerable uncertainty in the timing and severity of future pandemics. We introduce a method for optimizing stockpiles of mechanical ventilators, which are critical for treating hospitalized influenza patients in respiratory failure. As a case study, we consider the US state of Texas during mild, moderate, and severe pandemics. Optimal allocations prioritize local over central storage, even though the latter can be deployed adaptively, on the basis of real-time needs. This prioritization stems from high geographic correlations and the slightly lower treatment success assumed for centrally stockpiled ventilators. We developed our model and analysis in collaboration with academic researchers and a state public health agency and incorporated it into a Web-based decision-support tool for pandemic preparedness and response.

  5. Why Pandemic Response is Unique

    Bækkeskov, Erik; Rubin, Olivier

    2014-01-01

    , the case studies of media coverage in the USA and Denmark demonstrate that the response was bureaucratized in the public health agencies (CDC and DMHA, respectively). Hence, while natural disaster responses appear to follow a political logic, the response to pandemics appears to be more strongly instituted......Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to show that 2009 H1N1 “swine” influenza pandemic vaccination policies deviated from predictions established in the theory of political survival, and to propose that pandemic response deviated because it was ruled by bureaucratized experts rather than...... by elected politicians. Design/methodology/approach – Focussing on the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, the paper employs descriptive statistical analysis of vaccination policies in nine western democracies. To probe the plausibility of the novel explanation, it uses quantitative and qualitative content analyses of media...

  6. The 2009-2010 influenza pandemic: effects on pandemic and seasonal vaccine uptake and lessons learned for seasonal vaccination campaigns.

    Poland, Gregory A

    2010-09-07

    Individual and national/cultural differences were apparent in response to the 2009-2010 influenza pandemic. Overall pandemic influenza immunization rates were low across all nations, including among healthcare workers. Among the reasons for the low coverage rates may have been a lack of concern about the individual risk of influenza, which may translate into a lack of willingness or urgency to be vaccinated, particularly if there is mistrust of information provided by public health or governmental authorities. Intuitively, a link between willingness to be vaccinated against seasonal influenza and against pandemic influenza exists, given the similarities in decision-making for this infection. As such, the public is likely to share common concerns regarding pandemic and seasonal influenza vaccination, particularly in the areas of vaccine safety and side effects, and personal risk. Given the public's perception of the low level of virulence of the recent pandemic influenza virus, there is concern that the perception of a lack of personal risk of infection and risk of vaccine side effects could adversely affect seasonal vaccine uptake. While governments are more often concerned about public anxiety and panic, as well as absenteeism of healthcare and other essential workers during a pandemic, convincing the public of the threat posed by pandemic or seasonal influenza is often the more difficult, and underappreciated task. Thus, appropriate, timely, and data-driven health information are very important issues in increasing influenza vaccine coverage, perhaps even more so in western societies where trust in government and public health reports may be lower than in other countries. This article explores what has been learned about cross-cultural responses to pandemic influenza, and seeks to apply those lessons to seasonal influenza immunization programs. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Immunocapture isotope dilution mass spectrometry in response to a pandemic influenza threat.

    Pierce, Carrie L; Williams, Tracie L; Santana, Wanda I; Levine, Marnie; Chen, Li-Mei; Cooper, Hans C; Solano, Maria I; Woolfitt, Adrian R; Marasco, Wayne A; Fang, He; Donis, Ruben O; Barr, John R

    2017-09-05

    As a result of recent advances in mass spectrometry-based protein quantitation methods, these techniques are now poised to play a critical role in rapid formulation of pandemic influenza vaccines. Analytical techniques that have been developed and validated on seasonal influenza strains can be used to increase the quality and decrease the time required to deliver protective pandemic vaccines to the global population. The emergence of a potentially pandemic avian influenza A (H7N9) virus in March of 2013, prompted the US public health authorities and the vaccine industry to initiate production of a pre-pandemic vaccine for preparedness purposes. To this end, we evaluated the feasibility of using immunocapture isotope dilution mass spectrometry (IC-IDMS) to evaluate the suitability of the underlying monoclonal and polyclonal antibodies (mAbs and pAbs) for their capacity to isolate the H7 hemagglutinin (HA) in this new vaccine for quantification by IDMS. A broad range of H7 capture efficiencies was observed among mAbs tested by IC-IDMS with FR-545, 46/6, and G3 A533 exhibiting the highest cross-reactivity capabilities to H7 of A/Shanghai/2/2013. MAb FR-545 was selected for continued assessment, evaluated by IC-IDMS for mAb reactivity against H7 in the H7N9 candidate vaccine virus and compared with/to reactivity to the reference polyclonal antiserum in allantoic fluid, purified whole virus, lyophilized whole virus and final detergent-split monovalent vaccine preparations for vaccine development. IC-IDMS assessment of FR-545 alongside IC-IDMS using the reference polyclonal antiserum to A/Shanghai/2/2013 and with the regulatory SRID method showed strong correlation and mAb IC-IDMS could have played an important role in the event a potential surrogate potency test was required to be rapidly implemented. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  8. Information technology systems for critical care triage and medical response during an influenza pandemic: a review of current systems.

    Bandayrel, Kristofer; Lapinsky, Stephen; Christian, Michael

    2013-06-01

    To assess local, state, federal, and global pandemic influenza preparedness by identifying pandemic plans at the local, state, federal, and global levels, and to identify any information technology (IT) systems in these plans to support critical care triage during an influenza pandemic in the Canadian province of Ontario. The authors used advanced MEDLINE and Google search strategies and conducted a comprehensive review of key pandemic influenza Web sites. Descriptive data extraction and analysis for IT systems were conducted on all of the included pandemic plans. A total of 155 pandemic influenza plans were reviewed: 29 local, 62 state, 63 federal, and 1 global. We found 70 plans that examined IT systems (10 local, 33 state, 26 federal, 1 global), and 85 that did not (19 local, 29 state, 37 federal). Of the 70 plans, 64 described surveillance systems (10 local, 32 state, 21 federal, 1 global), 2 described patient data collection systems (1 state, 1 federal); 4 described other types of IT systems (4 federal), and none were intended for triage. Although several pandemic plans have been drafted, the majority are high-level general documents that do not describe IT systems. The plans that discuss IT systems focus strongly on surveillance, which fails to recognize the needs of a health care system responding to an influenza pandemic. The best examples of the types of IT systems to guide decision making during a pandemic were found in the Kansas and the Czech Republic pandemic plans, because these systems were designed to collect both patient and surveillance data. Although Ontario has yet to develop such an IT system, several IT systems are in place that could be leveraged to support critical care triage and medical response during an influenza pandemic.

  9. Adjuvant solution for pandemic influenza vaccine production.

    Clegg, Christopher H; Roque, Richard; Van Hoeven, Neal; Perrone, Lucy; Baldwin, Susan L; Rininger, Joseph A; Bowen, Richard A; Reed, Steven G

    2012-10-23

    Extensive preparation is underway to mitigate the next pandemic influenza outbreak. New vaccine technologies intended to supplant egg-based production methods are being developed, with recombinant hemagglutinin (rHA) as the most advanced program for preventing seasonal and avian H5N1 Influenza. Increased efforts are being focused on adjuvants that can broaden vaccine immunogenicity against emerging viruses and maximize vaccine supply on a worldwide scale. Here, we test protection against avian flu by using H5N1-derived rHA and GLA-SE, a two-part adjuvant system containing glucopyranosyl lipid adjuvant (GLA), a formulated synthetic Toll-like receptor 4 agonist, and a stable emulsion (SE) of oil in water, which is similar to the best-in-class adjuvants being developed for pandemic flu. Notably, a single submicrogram dose of rH5 adjuvanted with GLA-SE protects mice and ferrets against a high titer challenge with H5N1 virus. GLA-SE, relative to emulsion alone, accelerated induction of the primary immune response and broadened its durability against heterosubtypic H5N1 virus challenge. Mechanistically, GLA-SE augments protection via induction of a Th1-mediated antibody response. Innate signaling pathways that amplify priming of Th1 CD4 T cells will likely improve vaccine performance against future outbreaks of lethal pandemic flu.

  10. Outbreak of pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 in Nepal.

    Adhikari, Bal Ram; Shakya, Geeta; Upadhyay, Bishnu Prasad; Prakash Kc, Khagendra; Shrestha, Sirjana Devi; Dhungana, Guna Raj

    2011-03-23

    The 2009 flu pandemic is a global outbreak of a new strain of H1N1 influenza virus. Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 has posed a serious public health challenge world-wide. Nepal has started Laboratory diagnosis of Pandemic influenza A/H1N1 from mid June 2009 though active screening of febrile travellers with respiratory symptoms was started from April 27, 2009. Out of 609 collected samples, 302 (49.6%) were Universal Influenza A positive. Among the influenza A positive samples, 172(28.3%) were positive for Pandemic influenza A/H1N1 and 130 (21.3%) were Seasonal influenza A. Most of the pandemic cases (53%) were found among young people with ≤ 20 years. Case Fatality Ratio for Pandemic influenza A/H1N1 in Nepal was 1.74%. Upon Molecular characterization, all the isolated pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 virus found in Nepal were antigenically and genetically related to the novel influenza A/CALIFORNIA/07/2009-LIKE (H1N1)v type. The Pandemic 2009 influenza virus found in Nepal were antigenically and genetically related to the novel A/CALIFORNIA/07/2009-LIKE (H1N1)v type.

  11. Outbreak of pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 in Nepal

    Shrestha Sirjana

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The 2009 flu pandemic is a global outbreak of a new strain of H1N1 influenza virus. Pandemic influenza A (H1N1 2009 has posed a serious public health challenge world-wide. Nepal has started Laboratory diagnosis of Pandemic influenza A/H1N1 from mid June 2009 though active screening of febrile travellers with respiratory symptoms was started from April 27, 2009. Results Out of 609 collected samples, 302 (49.6% were Universal Influenza A positive. Among the influenza A positive samples, 172(28.3% were positive for Pandemic influenza A/H1N1 and 130 (21.3% were Seasonal influenza A. Most of the pandemic cases (53% were found among young people with ≤ 20 years. Case Fatality Ratio for Pandemic influenza A/H1N1 in Nepal was 1.74%. Upon Molecular characterization, all the isolated pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 virus found in Nepal were antigenically and genetically related to the novel influenza A/CALIFORNIA/07/2009-LIKE (H1N1v type. Conclusion The Pandemic 2009 influenza virus found in Nepal were antigenically and genetically related to the novel A/CALIFORNIA/07/2009-LIKE (H1N1v type.

  12. Macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza and associated policies in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda.

    Smith, Richard D; Keogh-Brown, Marcus R

    2013-09-01

    Research has shown the value of conducting a macroeconomic analysis of the impact of influenza pandemics. However, previous modelling applications focus on high-income countries, and there is a lack of evidence concerning the potential impact of an influenza pandemic on lower- and middle-income countries. To estimate the macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda with particular reference to pandemic (H1N1) 2009. A single-country whole-economy Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was set up for each of the three countries in question and used to estimate the economic impact of declines in labour attributable to morbidity, mortality and school closure. Overall GDP impacts were less than 1% of GDP for all countries and scenarios. Uganda's losses were proportionally larger than those of Thailand and South Africa. Labour-intensive sectors suffer the largest losses. The economic cost of unavoidable absence in the event of an influenza pandemic could be proportionally larger for low-income countries. The cost of mild pandemics, such as pandemic (H1N1) 2009, appears to be small, but could increase for more severe pandemics and/or pandemics with greater behavioural change and avoidable absence. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  13. Biocommunicability and the biopolitics of pandemic threats.

    Briggs, Charles L; Nichter, Mark

    2009-07-01

    In this article we assess accounts of the H1N1 virus or "swine flu" to draw attention to the ways in which discourse about biosecurity and global health citizenship during times of pandemic alarms supports calls for the creation of global surveillance systems and naturalizes forms of governance. We propose a medical anthropology of epidemics to complement an engaged anthropology aimed at better and more critical forms of epidemic surveillance. A medical anthropology of epidemics provides insights into factors and actors that shape the ongoing production of knowledge about epidemics, how dominant and competing accounts circulate and interact, how different stakeholders (citizens, politicians, journalists, and policymakers) access and interpret information available from different sources-including through a variety of new digital venues-and what they do with it. These insights together provide a compelling agenda for medical anthropology and anyone working in health-related fields.

  14. Genome plasticity of Vibrio parahaemolyticus: microevolution of the 'pandemic group'

    Liu Xiumei

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Outbreak of V. parahaemolyticus infections occurred since 1996 was linked to a proposed clonal complex, the pandemic group. The whole genome sequence provides an unprecedented opportunity for dissecting genome plasticity and phylogeny of the populations of V. parahaemolyticus. In the present work, a whole-genome cDNA microarray was constructed to compare the genomic contents of a collection of 174 strains of V. parahaemolyticus. Results Genes that present variably in the genome accounted for about 22% of the whole gene pool on the genome. The phylogenetic analysis of microarray data generated a minimum spanning tree that depicted the phylogenetic structure of the 174 strains. Strains were assigned into five complexes (C1 to C5, and those in each complex were related genetically and phylogenetically. C3 and C4 represented highly virulent clinical clones. C2 and C3 constituted two different clonal complexes 'old-O3:K6 clone' and 'pandemic clone', respectively. C3 included all the 39 pandemic strains tested (trh-, tdh+ and GS-PCR+, while C2 contained 12 pre-1996 'old' O3:K6 strains (trh+, tdh- and GS-PCR- tested herein. The pandemic clone (post-1996 'new' O3:K6 and its derivates O4:K68, O1:K25, O1:KUT and O6:K18 might be emerged from the old-O3:K6 clone, which was promoted by acquisition of toxRS/new sequence and genomic islands. A phylogenetic intermediate O3:K6 clade (trh-, tdh- and GS-PCR+ was identified between the pandemic and old-O3:K6 clones. Conclusion A comprehensive overview of genomic contents in a large collection of global isolates from the microarray-based comparative genomic hybridization data enabled us to construct a phylogenetic structure of V. parahaemolyticus and an evolutionary history of the pandemic group (clone of this pathogen.

  15. Threat of plastic pollution to seabirds is global, pervasive, and increasing

    Wilcox, C; Van Sebille, E; Hardesty, BD

    2015-01-01

    Plastic pollution in the ocean is a rapidly emerging global environmental concern, with high concentrations (up to 580,000 pieces per km2) and a global distribution, driven by exponentially increasing production. Seabirds are particularly vulnerable to this type of pollution and are widely observed to ingest floating plastic. We used a mixture of literature surveys, oceanographic modeling, and ecological models to predict the risk of plastic ingestion to 186 seabird species globally. Impacts ...

  16. Preparing for a Pandemic Flu Outbreak

    Dittbenner, Richard

    2009-01-01

    This article discusses the things college leaders should know and do in case of a pandemic influenza outbreak. The author talks about four principles that will guide college leaders in developing a pandemic influenza plan and presents the 10 elements of an effective college pandemic planning process.

  17. Is Global Warming Likely to Cause an Increased Incidence of Malaria?

    The rise in the average temperature of earth has been described as global warming which is mainly attributed to the increasing phenomenon of the greenhouse effect. It is believed that global warming can have several harmful effects on human health, both directly and indirectly. Since malaria is greatly influenced by ...

  18. The Major Challenges Facing Teacher Education in an Increasingly Global Society

    Paese, Paul C.

    2008-01-01

    Central to schools of education are the professional preparation and development of future educators, who will be responsible for preparing citizens to function and live in a global community. Globalization and schooling have the potential to successfully or unsuccessfully affect the skills that students need to succeed in an increasingly global…

  19. Measuring the potential of individual airports for pandemic spread over the world airline network.

    Lawyer, Glenn

    2016-02-09

    Massive growth in human mobility has dramatically increased the risk and rate of pandemic spread. Macro-level descriptors of the topology of the World Airline Network (WAN) explains middle and late stage dynamics of pandemic spread mediated by this network, but necessarily regard early stage variation as stochastic. We propose that much of this early stage variation can be explained by appropriately characterizing the local network topology surrounding an outbreak's debut location. Based on a model of the WAN derived from public data, we measure for each airport the expected force of infection (AEF) which a pandemic originating at that airport would generate, assuming an epidemic process which transmits from airport to airport via scheduled commercial flights. We observe, for a subset of world airports, the minimum transmission rate at which a disease becomes pandemically competent at each airport. We also observe, for a larger subset, the time until a pandemically competent outbreak achieves pandemic status given its debut location. Observations are generated using a highly sophisticated metapopulation reaction-diffusion simulator under a disease model known to well replicate the 2009 influenza pandemic. The robustness of the AEF measure to model misspecification is examined by degrading the underlying model WAN. AEF powerfully explains pandemic risk, showing correlation of 0.90 to the transmission level needed to give a disease pandemic competence, and correlation of 0.85 to the delay until an outbreak becomes a pandemic. The AEF is robust to model misspecification. For 97 % of airports, removing 15 % of airports from the model changes their AEF metric by less than 1 %. Appropriately summarizing the size, shape, and diversity of an airport's local neighborhood in the WAN accurately explains much of the macro-level stochasticity in pandemic outcomes.

  20. Public health intelligence and the detection of potential pandemics.

    French, Martin; Mykhalovskiy, Eric

    2013-02-01

    This article considers contemporary developments in public health intelligence (PHI), especially their focus on health events of pandemic potential. It argues that the sociological study of PHI can yield important insights for the sociology of pandemics. PHI aims to detect health events as (or even before) they unfold. Whilst its apparatuses envelope traditional public health activities, such as epidemiological surveillance, they increasingly extend to non-traditional public health activities such as data-mining in electronically mediated social networks. With a focus on non-traditional PHI activities, the article first situates the study of PHI in relation to the sociology of public health. It then discusses the conceptualisation and actualisation of pandemics, reflecting on how public health professionals and organisations must equip themselves with diverse allies in order to realise the claims they make about pandemic phenomena. Finally, using the analytic tools of actor-network theory, sites for future empirical research that can contribute to the sociology of pandemics are suggested. © 2012 The Authors. Sociology of Health & Illness © 2012 Foundation for the Sociology of Health & Illness/Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  1. Vaccination strategies for future influenza pandemics: a severity-based cost effectiveness analysis.

    Kelso, Joel K; Halder, Nilimesh; Milne, George J

    2013-02-11

    A critical issue in planning pandemic influenza mitigation strategies is the delay between the arrival of the pandemic in a community and the availability of an effective vaccine. The likely scenario, born out in the 2009 pandemic, is that a newly emerged influenza pandemic will have spread to most parts of the world before a vaccine matched to the pandemic strain is produced. For a severe pandemic, additional rapidly activated intervention measures will be required if high mortality rates are to be avoided. A simulation modelling study was conducted to examine the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of plausible combinations of social distancing, antiviral and vaccination interventions, assuming a delay of 6-months between arrival of an influenza pandemic and first availability of a vaccine. Three different pandemic scenarios were examined; mild, moderate and extreme, based on estimates of transmissibility and pathogenicity of the 2009, 1957 and 1918 influenza pandemics respectively. A range of different durations of social distancing were examined, and the sensitivity of the results to variation in the vaccination delay, ranging from 2 to 6 months, was analysed. Vaccination-only strategies were not cost effective for any pandemic scenario, saving few lives and incurring substantial vaccination costs. Vaccination coupled with long duration social distancing, antiviral treatment and antiviral prophylaxis was cost effective for moderate pandemics and extreme pandemics, where it saved lives while simultaneously reducing the total pandemic cost. Combined social distancing and antiviral interventions without vaccination were significantly less effective, since without vaccination a resurgence in case numbers occurred as soon as social distancing interventions were relaxed. When social distancing interventions were continued until at least the start of the vaccination campaign, attack rates and total costs were significantly lower, and increased rates of vaccination

  2. Increasing occurrence of cold and warm extremes during the recent global warming slowdown.

    Johnson, Nathaniel C; Xie, Shang-Ping; Kosaka, Yu; Li, Xichen

    2018-04-30

    The recent levelling of global mean temperatures after the late 1990s, the so-called global warming hiatus or slowdown, ignited a surge of scientific interest into natural global mean surface temperature variability, observed temperature biases, and climate communication, but many questions remain about how these findings relate to variations in more societally relevant temperature extremes. Here we show that both summertime warm and wintertime cold extreme occurrences increased over land during the so-called hiatus period, and that these increases occurred for distinct reasons. The increase in cold extremes is associated with an atmospheric circulation pattern resembling the warm Arctic-cold continents pattern, whereas the increase in warm extremes is tied to a pattern of sea surface temperatures resembling the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. These findings indicate that large-scale factors responsible for the most societally relevant temperature variations over continents are distinct from those of global mean surface temperature.

  3. Why Globally GDP, Trade, Profits, Wages, Employment Decrease and Why Poverty Increases?

    Peter Štrukelj

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the paper is to propose a scientific explanation ofwhy GDP, trade, profits, wages and employment have been globallydecreasing and why poverty has been globally increasing betweenthe 2nd quarter of 2008 and the 3rd quarter of 2009. I explainthese facts in a scientific manner, that is, by deriving thepresent state of the global economy (crisis from the principles ofthe present global economy (predominately organized in a capitalisticmanner. I therefore prove that the crisis necessarily followsfrom the way the present global economy functions. I arguethat the reason for the crisis is the fundamental contradiction betweenthe purpose of companies (increasing profits and necessaryways in which companies try to increase profits, and that theconsequences of this fundamental contradiction are triggered bya general lack of credits.

  4. Economic analysis of pandemic influenza vaccination strategies in Singapore.

    Vernon J Lee

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: All influenza pandemic plans advocate pandemic vaccination. However, few studies have evaluated the cost-effectiveness of different vaccination strategies. This paper compares the economic outcomes of vaccination compared with treatment with antiviral agents alone, in Singapore. METHODOLOGY: We analyzed the economic outcomes of pandemic vaccination (immediate vaccination and vaccine stockpiling compared with treatment-only in Singapore using a decision-based model to perform cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analyses. We also explored the annual insurance premium (willingness to pay depending on the perceived risk of the next pandemic occurring. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The treatment-only strategy resulted in 690 deaths, 13,950 hospitalization days, and economic cost of USD$497 million. For immediate vaccination, at vaccine effectiveness of >55%, vaccination was cost-beneficial over treatment-only. Vaccine stockpiling is not cost-effective in most scenarios even with 100% vaccine effectiveness. The annual insurance premium was highest with immediate vaccination, and was lower with increased duration to the next pandemic. The premium was also higher with higher vaccine effectiveness, attack rates, and case-fatality rates. Stockpiling with case-fatality rates of 0.4-0.6% would be cost-beneficial if vaccine effectiveness was >80%; while at case-fatality of >5% stockpiling would be cost-beneficial even if vaccine effectiveness was 20%. High-risk sub-groups warrant higher premiums than low-risk sub-groups. CONCLUSIONS: The actual pandemic vaccine effectiveness and lead time is unknown. Vaccine strategy should be based on perception of severity. Immediate vaccination is most cost-effective, but requires vaccines to be available when required. Vaccine stockpiling as insurance against worst-case scenarios is also cost-effective. Research and development is therefore critical to develop and stockpile cheap, readily available effective vaccines.

  5. Global ablation of the mitochondrial calcium uniporter increases glycolysis in cortical neurons subjected to energetic stressors.

    Nichols, Matthew; Elustondo, Pia A; Warford, Jordan; Thirumaran, Aruloli; Pavlov, Evgeny V; Robertson, George S

    2017-08-01

    The effects of global mitochondrial calcium (Ca 2+ ) uniporter (MCU) deficiency on hypoxic-ischemic (HI) brain injury, neuronal Ca 2+ handling, bioenergetics and hypoxic preconditioning (HPC) were examined. Forebrain mitochondria isolated from global MCU nulls displayed markedly reduced Ca 2+ uptake and Ca 2+ -induced opening of the membrane permeability transition pore. Despite evidence that these effects should be neuroprotective, global MCU nulls and wild-type (WT) mice suffered comparable HI brain damage. Energetic stress enhanced glycolysis and depressed Complex I activity in global MCU null, relative to WT, cortical neurons. HI reduced forebrain NADH levels more in global MCU nulls than WT mice suggesting that increased glycolytic consumption of NADH suppressed Complex I activity. Compared to WT neurons, pyruvate dehydrogenase (PDH) was hyper-phosphorylated in MCU nulls at several sites that lower the supply of substrates for the tricarboxylic acid cycle. Elevation of cytosolic Ca 2+ with glutamate or ionomycin decreased PDH phosphorylation in MCU null neurons suggesting the use of alternative mitochondrial Ca 2+ transport. Under basal conditions, global MCU nulls showed similar increases of Ca 2+ handling genes in the hippocampus as WT mice subjected to HPC. We propose that long-term adaptations, common to HPC, in global MCU nulls compromise resistance to HI brain injury and disrupt HPC.

  6. Estimating the incidence reporting rates of new influenza pandemics at an early stage using travel data from the source country.

    Chong, K C; Fong, H F; Zee, C Y

    2014-05-01

    During the surveillance of influenza pandemics, underreported data are a public health challenge that complicates the understanding of pandemic threats and can undermine mitigation efforts. We propose a method to estimate incidence reporting rates at early stages of new influenza pandemics using 2009 pandemic H1N1 as an example. Routine surveillance data and statistics of travellers arriving from Mexico were used. Our method incorporates changes in reporting rates such as linearly increasing trends due to the enhanced surveillance. From our results, the reporting rate was estimated at 0·46% during early stages of the pandemic in Mexico. We estimated cumulative incidence in the Mexican population to be 0·7% compared to 0·003% reported by officials in Mexico at the end of April. This method could be useful in estimation of actual cases during new influenza pandemics for policy makers to better determine appropriate control measures.

  7. Abbreviated Pandemic Influenza Planning Template for Primary Care Offices

    HCTT CHE

    2010-01-01

    The Abbreviated Pandemic Influenza Plan Template for Primary Care Provider Offices is intended to assist primary care providers and office managers with preparing their offices for quickly putting a plan in place to handle an increase in patient calls and visits, whether during the 2009-2010 influenza season or future influenza seasons.

  8. Knowledge about pandemic influenza and compliance with containment measures among Australians.

    Eastwood, Keith; Durrheim, David; Francis, J Lynn; d'Espaignet, Edouard Tursan; Duncan, Sarah; Islam, Fakhrul; Speare, Rick

    2009-08-01

    To examine the level of stated compliance with public health pandemic influenza control measures and explore factors influencing cooperation for pandemic influenza control in Australia. A computer-assisted telephone interview survey was conducted by professional interviewers to collect information on the Australian public's knowledge of pandemic influenza and willingness to comply with public health control measures. The sample was randomly selected using an electronic database and printed telephone directories to ensure sample representativeness from all Australian states and territories. After we described pandemic influenza to the respondents to ensure they understood the significance of the issue, the questions on compliance were repeated and changes in responses were analysed with McNemar's test for paired data Only 23% of the 1166 respondents demonstrated a clear understanding of the term 'pandemic influenza'. Of those interviewed, 94.1% reported being willing to comply with home quarantine; 94.2%, to avoid public events; and 90.7%, to postpone social gatherings. After we explained the meaning of 'pandemic' to interviewees, stated compliance increased significantly (to 97.5%, 98.3% and 97.2% respectively). Those who reported being unfamiliar with the term 'pandemic influenza,' male respondents and employed people not able to work from home were less willing to comply. In Australia, should the threat arise, compliance with containment measures against pandemic influenza is likely to be high, yet it could be further enhanced through a public education programme conveying just a few key messages. A basic understanding of pandemic influenza is associated with stated willingness to comply with containment measures. Investing now in promoting measures to prepare for a pandemic or other health emergency will have considerable value.

  9. Circulating avian influenza viruses closely related to the 1918 virus have pandemic potential

    Watanabe, Tokiko; Zhong, Gongxun; Russell, Colin A.; Nakajima, Noriko; Hatta, Masato; Hanson, Anthony; McBride, Ryan; Burke, David F.; Takahashi, Kenta; Fukuyama, Satoshi; Tomita, Yuriko; Maher, Eileen A.; Watanabe, Shinji; Imai, Masaki; Neumann, Gabriele; Hasegawa, Hideki; Paulson, James C.; Smith, Derek J.; Kawaoka, Yoshihiro

    2014-01-01

    Summary Wild birds harbor a large gene pool of influenza A viruses that have the potential to cause influenza pandemics. Foreseeing and understanding this potential is important for effective surveillance. Our phylogenetic and geographic analyses revealed the global prevalence of avian influenza virus genes whose proteins differ only a few amino acids from the 1918 pandemic influenza virus, suggesting that 1918-like pandemic viruses may emerge in the future. To assess this risk, we generated and characterized a virus composed of avian influenza viral segments with high homology to the 1918 virus. This virus exhibited higher pathogenicity in mice and ferrets than an authentic avian influenza virus. Further, acquisition of seven amino acid substitutions in the viral polymerases and the hemagglutinin surface glycoprotein conferred respiratory droplet transmission to the 1918-like avian virus in ferrets, demonstrating that contemporary avian influenza viruses with 1918 virus-like proteins may have pandemic potential. PMID:24922572

  10. Increased Global Interaction Across Functional Brain Modules During Cognitive Emotion Regulation.

    Brandl, Felix; Mulej Bratec, Satja; Xie, Xiyao; Wohlschläger, Afra M; Riedl, Valentin; Meng, Chun; Sorg, Christian

    2017-07-13

    Cognitive emotion regulation (CER) enables humans to flexibly modulate their emotions. While local theories of CER neurobiology suggest interactions between specialized local brain circuits underlying CER, e.g., in subparts of amygdala and medial prefrontal cortices (mPFC), global theories hypothesize global interaction increases among larger functional brain modules comprising local circuits. We tested the global CER hypothesis using graph-based whole-brain network analysis of functional MRI data during aversive emotional processing with and without CER. During CER, global between-module interaction across stable functional network modules increased. Global interaction increase was particularly driven by subregions of amygdala and cuneus-nodes of highest nodal participation-that overlapped with CER-specific local activations, and by mPFC and posterior cingulate as relevant connector hubs. Results provide evidence for the global nature of human CER, complementing functional specialization of embedded local brain circuits during successful CER. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  11. Global transition i sundhed

    Bygbjerg, Ib Christian; Meyrowitsch, Dan W

    2006-01-01

    , and by degenerative, and man-made diseases in ageing populations. Omran could not foresee the HIV/AIDS pandemic or the dramatic fall in longevity and fertility in, for example, Russia. But his model remains of value for health planners and politicians. We advocate for research in the interplay between diseases......Global epidemiological transition reflected in changed patterns of death and diseases was first described by Omran; decreasing death and disease rates from infectious diseases, particularly in children and the young, are followed by decreased fertility rate and increased longevity...

  12. Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale

    Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N.; Bernstein, Diana N.

    2017-01-01

    Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff. PMID:28115693

  13. Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale.

    Neelin, J David; Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N; Bernstein, Diana N

    2017-02-07

    Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff.

  14. Is Global Warming likely to cause an increased incidence of Malaria?

    Nabi, SA; Qader, SS

    2009-01-01

    The rise in the average temperature of earth has been described as global warming which is mainly attributed to the increasing phenomenon of the greenhouse effect. It is believed that global warming can have several harmful effects on human health, both directly and indirectly. Since malaria is greatly influenced by climatic conditions because of its direct relationship with the mosquito population, it is widely assumed that its incidence is likely to increase in a future warmer world. This review article discusses the two contradictory views regarding the association of global warming with an increased incidence of malaria. On one hand, there are many who believe that there is a strong association between the recent increase in malaria incidence and global warming. They predict that as global warming continues, malaria is set to spread in locations where previously it was limited, due to cooler climate. On the other hand, several theories have been put forward which are quite contrary to this prediction. There are multiple other factors which are accountable for the recent upsurge of malaria: for example drug resistance, mosquito control programs, public health facilities, and living standards. PMID:21483497

  15. Pandemic ventilator rationing and appeals processes.

    Patrone, Daniel; Resnik, David

    2011-06-01

    In a severe influenza pandemic, hospitals will likely experience serious and widespread shortages of patient pulmonary ventilators and of staff qualified to operate them. Deciding who will receive access to mechanical ventilation will often determine who lives and who dies. This prospect raises an important question whether pandemic preparedness plans should include some process by which individuals affected by ventilator rationing would have the opportunity to appeal adverse decisions. However, the issue of appeals processes to ventilator rationing decisions has been largely neglected in state pandemic planning efforts. If we are to devise just and effective plans for coping with a severe influenza pandemic, more attention to the issue of appeals processes for pandemic ventilator rationing decisions is needed. Arguments for and against appeals processes are considered, and some suggestions are offered to help efforts at devising more rational pandemic preparedness plans.

  16. The cost effectiveness of pandemic influenza interventions: a pandemic severity based analysis.

    George J Milne

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The impact of a newly emerged influenza pandemic will depend on its transmissibility and severity. Understanding how these pandemic features impact on the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of alternative intervention strategies is important for pandemic planning. METHODS: A cost effectiveness analysis of a comprehensive range of social distancing and antiviral drug strategies intended to mitigate a future pandemic was conducted using a simulation model of a community of ∼30,000 in Australia. Six pandemic severity categories were defined based on case fatality ratio (CFR, using data from the 2009/2010 pandemic to relate hospitalisation rates to CFR. RESULTS: Intervention strategies combining school closure with antiviral treatment and prophylaxis are the most cost effective strategies in terms of cost per life year saved (LYS for all severity categories. The cost component in the cost per LYS ratio varies depending on pandemic severity: for a severe pandemic (CFR of 2.5% the cost is ∼$9 k per LYS; for a low severity pandemic (CFR of 0.1% this strategy costs ∼$58 k per LYS; for a pandemic with very low severity similar to the 2009 pandemic (CFR of 0.03% the cost is ∼$155 per LYS. With high severity pandemics (CFR >0.75% the most effective attack rate reduction strategies are also the most cost effective. During low severity pandemics costs are dominated by productivity losses due to illness and social distancing interventions, while for high severity pandemics costs are dominated by hospitalisation costs and productivity losses due to death. CONCLUSIONS: The most cost effective strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic involve combining sustained social distancing with the use of antiviral agents. For low severity pandemics the most cost effective strategies involve antiviral treatment, prophylaxis and short durations of school closure; while these are cost effective they are less effective than other strategies in

  17. The Cost Effectiveness of Pandemic Influenza Interventions: A Pandemic Severity Based Analysis

    Milne, George J.; Halder, Nilimesh; Kelso, Joel K.

    2013-01-01

    Background The impact of a newly emerged influenza pandemic will depend on its transmissibility and severity. Understanding how these pandemic features impact on the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of alternative intervention strategies is important for pandemic planning. Methods A cost effectiveness analysis of a comprehensive range of social distancing and antiviral drug strategies intended to mitigate a future pandemic was conducted using a simulation model of a community of ∼30,000 in Australia. Six pandemic severity categories were defined based on case fatality ratio (CFR), using data from the 2009/2010 pandemic to relate hospitalisation rates to CFR. Results Intervention strategies combining school closure with antiviral treatment and prophylaxis are the most cost effective strategies in terms of cost per life year saved (LYS) for all severity categories. The cost component in the cost per LYS ratio varies depending on pandemic severity: for a severe pandemic (CFR of 2.5%) the cost is ∼$9 k per LYS; for a low severity pandemic (CFR of 0.1%) this strategy costs ∼$58 k per LYS; for a pandemic with very low severity similar to the 2009 pandemic (CFR of 0.03%) the cost is ∼$155 per LYS. With high severity pandemics (CFR >0.75%) the most effective attack rate reduction strategies are also the most cost effective. During low severity pandemics costs are dominated by productivity losses due to illness and social distancing interventions, while for high severity pandemics costs are dominated by hospitalisation costs and productivity losses due to death. Conclusions The most cost effective strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic involve combining sustained social distancing with the use of antiviral agents. For low severity pandemics the most cost effective strategies involve antiviral treatment, prophylaxis and short durations of school closure; while these are cost effective they are less effective than other strategies in reducing the

  18. The Increase of Exotic Zoonotic Helminth Infections: The Impact of Urbanization, Climate Change and Globalization.

    Gordon, Catherine A; McManus, Donald P; Jones, Malcolm K; Gray, Darren J; Gobert, Geoffrey N

    2016-01-01

    Zoonotic parasitic diseases are increasingly impacting human populations due to the effects of globalization, urbanization and climate change. Here we review the recent literature on the most important helminth zoonoses, including reports of incidence and prevalence. We discuss those helminth diseases which are increasing in endemic areas and consider their geographical spread into new regions within the framework of globalization, urbanization and climate change to determine the effect these variables are having on disease incidence, transmission and the associated challenges presented for public health initiatives, including control and elimination. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Phase 1 study of pandemic H1 DNA vaccine in healthy adults.

    Michelle C Crank

    Full Text Available A novel, swine-origin influenza A (H1N1 virus was detected worldwide in April 2009, and the World Health Organization (WHO declared a global pandemic that June. DNA vaccine priming improves responses to inactivated influenza vaccines. We describe the rapid production and clinical evaluation of a DNA vaccine encoding the hemagglutinin protein of the 2009 pandemic A/California/04/2009(H1N1 influenza virus, accomplished nearly two months faster than production of A/California/07/2009(H1N1 licensed monovalent inactivated vaccine (MIV.20 subjects received three H1 DNA vaccinations (4 mg intramuscularly with Biojector at 4-week intervals. Eighteen subjects received an optional boost when the licensed H1N1 MIV became available. The interval between the third H1 DNA injection and MIV boost was 3-17 weeks. Vaccine safety was assessed by clinical observation, laboratory parameters, and 7-day solicited reactogenicity. Antibody responses were assessed by ELISA, HAI and neutralization assays, and T cell responses by ELISpot and flow cytometry.Vaccinations were safe and well-tolerated. As evaluated by HAI, 6/20 developed positive responses at 4 weeks after third DNA injection and 13/18 at 4 weeks after MIV boost. Similar results were detected in neutralization assays. T cell responses were detected after DNA and MIV. The antibody responses were significantly amplified by the MIV boost, however, the boost did not increased T cell responses induced by DNA vaccine.H1 DNA vaccine was produced quickly, was well-tolerated, and had modest immunogenicity as a single agent. Other HA DNA prime-MIV boost regimens utilizing one DNA prime vaccination and longer boost intervals have shown significant immunogenicity. Rapid and large-scale production of HA DNA vaccines has the potential to contribute to an efficient response against future influenza pandemics.Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00973895.

  20. Evolution and adaptation of the pandemic A/H1N1 2009 influenza virus

    Ducatez MF

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Mariette F Ducatez, Thomas P Fabrizio, Richard J WebbyDepartment of Infectious Diseases, St Jude Children's Research Hospital, Memphis, TN, USAAbstract: The emergence of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza virus [A(H1N1pdm09] has provided the public health community with many challenges, but also the scientific community with an opportunity to monitor closely its evolution through the processes of drift and shift. To date, and despite having circulated in humans for nearly two years, little antigenic variation has been observed in the A(H1N1pdm09 viruses. However, as the A(H1N1pdm09 virus continues to circulate and the immunologic pressure within the human population increases, future antigenic change is almost a certainty. Several coinfections of A(H1N1pdm09 and seasonal A(H1N1 or A(H3N2 viruses have been observed, but no reassortant viruses have been described in humans, suggesting a lack of fitness of reassortant viruses or a lack of opportunities for interaction of different viral lineages. In contrast, multiple reassortment events have been detected in swine populations between A(H1N1 pdm09 and other endemic swine viruses. Somewhat surprisingly, many of the well characterized influenza virus virulence markers appear to have limited impact on the phenotype of the A(H1N1pdm09 viruses when they have been introduced into mutant viruses in laboratory settings. As such, it is unclear what the evolutionary path of the pandemic virus will be, but the monitoring of any changes in the circulating viruses will remain a global public and animal health priority.Keywords: influenza, pandemic, evolution, adaptation

  1. Increasing crop production in Russia and Ukraine—regional and global impacts from intensification and recultivation

    Deppermann, Andre; Balkovič, Juraj; Bundle, Sophie-Charlotte; Di Fulvio, Fulvio; Havlik, Petr; Leclère, David; Lesiv, Myroslava; Prishchepov, Alexander V.; Schepaschenko, Dmitry

    2018-02-01

    Russia and Ukraine are countries with relatively large untapped agricultural potentials, both in terms of abandoned agricultural land and substantial yield gaps. Here we present a comprehensive assessment of Russian and Ukrainian crop production potentials and we analyze possible impacts of their future utilization, on a regional as well as global scale. To this end, the total amount of available abandoned land and potential yields in Russia and Ukraine are estimated and explicitly implemented in an economic agricultural sector model. We find that cereal (barley, corn, and wheat) production in Russia and Ukraine could increase by up to 64% in 2030 to 267 million tons, compared to a baseline scenario. Oilseeds (rapeseed, soybean, and sunflower) production could increase by 84% to 50 million tons, respectively. In comparison to the baseline, common net exports of Ukraine and Russia could increase by up to 86.3 million tons of cereals and 18.9 million tons of oilseeds in 2030, representing 4% and 3.6% of the global production of these crops, respectively. Furthermore, we find that production potentials due to intensification are ten times larger than potentials due to recultivation of abandoned land. Consequently, we also find stronger impacts from intensification at the global scale. A utilization of crop production potentials in Russia and Ukraine could globally save up to 21 million hectares of cropland and reduce average global crop prices by more than 3%.

  2. Globally Increased Crop Growth and Cropping Intensity from the Long-Term Satellite-Based Observations

    Chen, Bin

    2018-04-01

    Understanding the spatiotemporal change trend of global crop growth and multiple cropping system under climate change scenarios is a critical requirement for supporting the food security issue that maintains the function of human society. Many studies have predicted the effects of climate changes on crop production using a combination of filed studies and models, but there has been limited evidence relating decadal-scale climate change to global crop growth and the spatiotemporal distribution of multiple cropping system. Using long-term satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and observed climate data from 1982 to 2012, we investigated the crop growth trend, spatiotemporal pattern trend of agricultural cropping intensity, and their potential correlations with respect to the climate change drivers at a global scale. Results show that 82.97 % of global cropland maximum NDVI witnesses an increased trend while 17.03 % of that shows a decreased trend over the past three decades. The spatial distribution of multiple cropping system is observed to expand from lower latitude to higher latitude, and the increased cropping intensity is also witnessed globally. In terms of regional major crop zones, results show that all nine selected zones have an obvious upward trend of crop maximum NDVI (p impact on the crop growth trend.

  3. GLOBALLY INCREASED CROP GROWTH AND CROPPING INTENSITY FROM THE LONG-TERM SATELLITE-BASED OBSERVATIONS

    B. Chen

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the spatiotemporal change trend of global crop growth and multiple cropping system under climate change scenarios is a critical requirement for supporting the food security issue that maintains the function of human society. Many studies have predicted the effects of climate changes on crop production using a combination of filed studies and models, but there has been limited evidence relating decadal-scale climate change to global crop growth and the spatiotemporal distribution of multiple cropping system. Using long-term satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI and observed climate data from 1982 to 2012, we investigated the crop growth trend, spatiotemporal pattern trend of agricultural cropping intensity, and their potential correlations with respect to the climate change drivers at a global scale. Results show that 82.97 % of global cropland maximum NDVI witnesses an increased trend while 17.03 % of that shows a decreased trend over the past three decades. The spatial distribution of multiple cropping system is observed to expand from lower latitude to higher latitude, and the increased cropping intensity is also witnessed globally. In terms of regional major crop zones, results show that all nine selected zones have an obvious upward trend of crop maximum NDVI (p < 0.001, and as for climatic drivers, the gradual temperature and precipitation changes have had a measurable impact on the crop growth trend.

  4. Increasingly Global: Combining an International Business Degree with a Post-Degree Designation

    Smith, Rachel; Terry, Andy; Vibhakar, Ashvin

    2006-01-01

    In the increasingly complex and competitive global marketplace, many students seek to gain multiple skills and credentials that can aid them in their career goals. One such career strategy weds a general overarching comprehensive degree with a specific and targeted skill set. This paper provides a viable curriculum path for students who seek…

  5. Land–atmosphere feedbacks amplify aridity increase over land under global warming

    Berg, Alexis; Findell, Kirsten; Lintner, Benjamin; Giannini, Alessandra; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; van den Hurk, Bart; Lorenz, Ruth; Pitman, Andy; Hagemann, Stefan; Meier, Arndt; Cheruy, Frédérique; Ducharne, Agnès; Malyshev, Sergey; Milly, Paul C. D.

    2016-01-01

    The response of the terrestrial water cycle to global warming is central to issues including water resources, agriculture and ecosystem health. Recent studies indicate that aridity, defined in terms of atmospheric supply (precipitation, P) and demand (potential evapotranspiration, Ep) of water at the land surface, will increase globally in a warmer world. Recently proposed mechanisms for this response emphasize the driving role of oceanic warming and associated atmospheric processes. Here we show that the aridity response is substantially amplified by land–atmosphere feedbacks associated with the land surface’s response to climate and CO2 change. Using simulations from the Global Land Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE)-CMIP5 experiment, we show that global aridity is enhanced by the feedbacks of projected soil moisture decrease on land surface temperature, relative humidity and precipitation. The physiological impact of increasing atmospheric CO2 on vegetation exerts a qualitatively similar control on aridity. We reconcile these findings with previously proposed mechanisms by showing that the moist enthalpy change over land is unaffected by the land hydrological response. Thus, although oceanic warming constrains the combined moisture and temperature changes over land, land hydrology modulates the partitioning of this enthalpy increase towards increased aridity.

  6. Increasing the Value of Agricultural Products in the Face of Global ...

    The Paper examined the increasing value of agricultural products in the face of global economic recession in Anambra State. The paper revealed that Anambra State is endowed with human and natural resources and if properly harnessed, can go a long way in arresting the food insecurity in the State and alleviate the ...

  7. Implications of the global increase of diabetes for tuberculosis control and patient care.

    Ruslami, R.; Aarnoutse, R.E.; Alisjahbana, B.; Ven, A.J.A.M. van der; Crevel, R. van

    2010-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To review the current knowledge about tuberculosis (TB) and diabetes, assessing the implication of the global increase of diabetes for TB control and patient care. METHODS: Systematic literature review. RESULTS: Using public databases, it can be estimated that 12.6% (95% CI 9.2-17.3%) of

  8. Historic and future increase in the global land area affected by monthly heat extremes

    Coumou, Dim; Robinson, Alexander

    2013-01-01

    Climatic warming of about 0.5 ° C in the global mean since the 1970s has strongly increased the occurrence-probability of heat extremes on monthly to seasonal time scales. For the 21st century, climate models predict more substantial warming. Here we show that the multi-model mean of the CMIP5

  9. The possible macroeconomic impact on the UK of an influenza pandemic.

    Keogh-Brown, Marcus R; Wren-Lewis, Simon; Edmunds, W John; Beutels, Philippe; Smith, Richard D

    2010-11-01

    Little is known about the possible impact of an influenza pandemic on a nation's economy. We applied the UK macroeconomic model 'COMPACT' to epidemiological data on previous UK influenza pandemics, and extrapolated a sensitivity analysis to cover more extreme disease scenarios. Analysis suggests that the economic impact of a repeat of the 1957 or 1968 pandemics, allowing for school closures, would be short-lived, constituting a loss of 3.35 and 0.58% of GDP in the first pandemic quarter and year, respectively. A more severe scenario (with more than 1% of the population dying) could yield impacts of 21 and 4.5%, respectively. The economic shockwave would be gravest when absenteeism (through school closures) increases beyond a few weeks, creating policy repercussions for influenza pandemic planning as the most severe economic impact is due to policies to contain the pandemic rather than the pandemic itself.Accounting for changes in consumption patterns made in an attempt to avoid infection worsens the potential impact. Our mild disease scenario then shows first quarter/first year reductions in GDP of 9.5/2.5%, compared with our severe scenario reductions of 29.5/6%. These results clearly indicate the significance of behavioural change over disease parameters. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  10. Evidence of Climate Change (Global Warming) and Temperature Increases in Arctic Areas

    Eric Kojo Wu Aikins

    2012-01-01

    This paper contributes to the debate on the proximate causes of climate change. Also, it discusses the impact of the global temperature increases since the beginning of the twentieth century and the effectiveness of climate change models in isolating the primary cause (anthropogenic influences or natural variability in temperature) of the observed temperature increases that occurred within this period. The paper argues that if climate scientist and policymakers ignore the...

  11. Globalization

    F. Gerard Adams

    2008-01-01

    The rapid globalization of the world economy is causing fundamental changes in patterns of trade and finance. Some economists have argued that globalization has arrived and that the world is “flat†. While the geographic scope of markets has increased, the author argues that new patterns of trade and finance are a result of the discrepancies between “old†countries and “new†. As the differences are gradually wiped out, particularly if knowledge and technology spread worldwide, the t...

  12. Biochemical fingerprinting of Vibrio parahaemolyticus by the PhenePlate system: comparison between pandemic and non-pandemic serotypes.

    Rahman, Mokhlasur; Bhuiyan, N A; Kuhn, I; Ramamurthy, T; Rahman, M; Mollby, R; Nair, G Balakrish

    2006-10-01

    During recent years a pandemic clone of Vibrio parahaemolyticus has emerged. Isolates of this clone are distributed among several serotypes, but are genotypically related. In the present study, a phenotyping method (biochemical fingerprinting) was used to characterize pandemic and non-pandemic isolates belonging to V. parahaemolyticus. It was found that the pandemic isolates showed a high level of phenotypic homogeneity and a majority of the pandemic isolates belonged to the same biochemical phenotype, whereas non-pandemic V. parahemolyticus isolates were more heterogeneous. In conclusion, biochemical fingerprinting of V. parahaemolyticus can be used as a first screening method to differentiate between pandemic and non-pandemic isolates of V. parahaemolyticus.

  13. Big Data Knowledge in Global Health Education.

    Olayinka, Olaniyi; Kekeh, Michele; Sheth-Chandra, Manasi; Akpinar-Elci, Muge

    The ability to synthesize and analyze massive amounts of data is critical to the success of organizations, including those that involve global health. As countries become highly interconnected, increasing the risk for pandemics and outbreaks, the demand for big data is likely to increase. This requires a global health workforce that is trained in the effective use of big data. To assess implementation of big data training in global health, we conducted a pilot survey of members of the Consortium of Universities of Global Health. More than half the respondents did not have a big data training program at their institution. Additionally, the majority agreed that big data training programs will improve global health deliverables, among other favorable outcomes. Given the observed gap and benefits, global health educators may consider investing in big data training for students seeking a career in global health. Copyright © 2017 Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. University life and pandemic influenza: Attitudes and intended behaviour of staff and students towards pandemic (H1N1 2009

    MacIntyre C Raina

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In a pandemic young adults are more likely to be infected, increasing the potential for Universities to be explosive disease outbreak centres. Outbreak management is essential to reduce the impact in both the institution and the surrounding community. Through the use of an online survey, we aimed to measure the perceptions and responses of staff and students towards pandemic (H1N1 2009 at a major university in Sydney, Australia. Methods The survey was available online from 29 June to 30 September 2009. The sample included academic staff, general staff and students of the University. Results A total of 2882 surveys were completed. Nearly all respondents (99.6%, 2870/2882 were aware of the Australian pandemic situation and 64.2% (1851/2882 reported either "no anxiety" or "disinterest." Asian-born respondents were significantly (p Conclusions Responses to a pandemic are subject to change in its pre-, early and mid-outbreak stages. Lessons for these institutions in preparation for a second wave and future disease outbreaks include the need to promote positive public health behaviours amongst young people and students.

  15. Projected Increase in Lightning Strikes in the United States Due to Global Warming

    Romps, D. M.; Seeley, J.; Vollaro, D.; Molinari, J.

    2014-12-01

    Lightning plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry and in the initiation of wildfires, but the impact of global warming on lightning rates is poorly constrained. The lightning flash rate is proposed here to be proportional to the convective available potential energy (CAPE) times the precipitation rate. Using observations, the product of CAPE and precipitation is found to explain the majority of variance in the time series of total cloud-to-ground lightning flashes over the contiguous United States (CONUS) on timescales ranging from diurnal to seasonal. The observations reveal that storms convert the CAPE of water mass to discharged lightning energy with an efficiency of about 1%. This proxy can be applied to global climate models, which provide predictions for the increase in lightning due to global warming. Results from 11 GCMs will be shown.

  16. Increased Global Functional Connectivity Correlates with LSD-Induced Ego Dissolution.

    Tagliazucchi, Enzo; Roseman, Leor; Kaelen, Mendel; Orban, Csaba; Muthukumaraswamy, Suresh D; Murphy, Kevin; Laufs, Helmut; Leech, Robert; McGonigle, John; Crossley, Nicolas; Bullmore, Edward; Williams, Tim; Bolstridge, Mark; Feilding, Amanda; Nutt, David J; Carhart-Harris, Robin

    2016-04-25

    Lysergic acid diethylamide (LSD) is a non-selective serotonin-receptor agonist that was first synthesized in 1938 and identified as (potently) psychoactive in 1943. Psychedelics have been used by indigenous cultures for millennia [1]; however, because of LSD's unique potency and the timing of its discovery (coinciding with a period of major discovery in psychopharmacology), it is generally regarded as the quintessential contemporary psychedelic [2]. LSD has profound modulatory effects on consciousness and was used extensively in psychological research and psychiatric practice in the 1950s and 1960s [3]. In spite of this, however, there have been no modern human imaging studies of its acute effects on the brain. Here we studied the effects of LSD on intrinsic functional connectivity within the human brain using fMRI. High-level association cortices (partially overlapping with the default-mode, salience, and frontoparietal attention networks) and the thalamus showed increased global connectivity under the drug. The cortical areas showing increased global connectivity overlapped significantly with a map of serotonin 2A (5-HT2A) receptor densities (the key site of action of psychedelic drugs [4]). LSD also increased global integration by inflating the level of communication between normally distinct brain networks. The increase in global connectivity observed under LSD correlated with subjective reports of "ego dissolution." The present results provide the first evidence that LSD selectively expands global connectivity in the brain, compromising the brain's modular and "rich-club" organization and, simultaneously, the perceptual boundaries between the self and the environment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Reflections on pandemics, past and present.

    Schuchat, Anne

    2011-06-01

    The author reflects on her personal experiences during the 2009 H1N1 influenza, acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS), and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) pandemics. The roles played by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention related to pregnancy-associated influenza during the 2009 pandemic are described. Risk communication principles are summarized and resources provided. Published by Mosby, Inc.

  18. Influenza Pandemic Infrastructure Response in Thailand

    Influenza viruses change antigenic properties, or drift, every year and they create seasonal outbreaks. Occasionally, influenza viruses change in a major way, called a “shift." If an influenza virus shifts, the entire human population is susceptible to the new influenza virus, creating the potential for a pandemic. On this podcast, CDC's Dr. Scott Dowell discusses responding to an influenza pandemic.

  19. Pandemics and immune memory in the noisy Penna model

    Cebrat, Stanisław; Bonkowska, Katarzyna; Biecek, Przemysław

    2007-06-01

    In the noisy Penna model of ageing, instead of counting the number of defective loci which eventually kill an individual, the noise describing the health status of individuals is introduced. This white noise is composed of two components: the environmental one and the personal one. If the sum of both trespasses the limit set for the individuals homeodynamics the individual dies. The energy of personal fluctuations depends on the number of defective loci expressed in the individuals genome. Environmental fluctuations, the same for all individuals can include some signals, corresponding to the exposition to pathogens which could be dangerous for a fraction of the organisms. Personal noise and the component of random environmental fluctuations, when superimposed on the signal can be life threatening if they are stronger than the limit set for individuals homeodynamics. Nevertheless, some organisms survive the period of dangerous signal and they may remember the signal in the future, like antigens are remembered by our immune systems. Unfortunately, this memory weakens with time and, even worse, some additional defective genes are switched on during the ageing. If the same pathogens (signals) emerge during the lifespan of the population, a fraction of the population could remember it and could respond by increasing the resistance to it. Again, unfortunately for some individuals, their memory could be too weak and their own health status has worsened due to the accumulated mutations, they have to die. Though, a fraction of individuals can survive the pandemics due to the immune memory, but a fraction of population has no such a memory because they were born after the last pandemic or they didnt notice this pandemic. Our simple model, by implementing the noise instead of deterministic threshold of genetic defects, describes how the impact of pandemics on populations depends on the time which elapsed between the two incidents and how the different age groups of

  20. Global warming and the possible globalization of vector-borne diseases: a call for increased awareness and action.

    Balogun, Emmanuel O; Nok, Andrew J; Kita, Kiyoshi

    2016-01-01

    Human activities such as burning of fossil fuels play a role in upsetting a previously more balanced and harmonious ecosystem. Climate change-a significant variation in the usual pattern of Earth's average weather conditions is a product of this ecosystem imbalance, and the rise in the Earth's average temperature (global warming) is a prominent evidence. There is a correlation between global warming and the ease of transmission of infectious diseases. Therefore, with global health in focus, we herein opine a stepping-up of research activities regarding global warming and infectious diseases globally.

  1. Global increase and geographic convergence in antibiotic consumption between 2000 and 2015

    Van Boeckel, Thomas P.; Martinez, Elena M.; Pant, Suraj; Gandra, Sumanth; Levin, Simon A.; Goossens, Herman

    2018-01-01

    Tracking antibiotic consumption patterns over time and across countries could inform policies to optimize antibiotic prescribing and minimize antibiotic resistance, such as setting and enforcing per capita consumption targets or aiding investments in alternatives to antibiotics. In this study, we analyzed the trends and drivers of antibiotic consumption from 2000 to 2015 in 76 countries and projected total global antibiotic consumption through 2030. Between 2000 and 2015, antibiotic consumption, expressed in defined daily doses (DDD), increased 65% (21.1–34.8 billion DDDs), and the antibiotic consumption rate increased 39% (11.3–15.7 DDDs per 1,000 inhabitants per day). The increase was driven by low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where rising consumption was correlated with gross domestic product per capita (GDPPC) growth (P = 0.004). In high-income countries (HICs), although overall consumption increased modestly, DDDs per 1,000 inhabitants per day fell 4%, and there was no correlation with GDPPC. Of particular concern was the rapid increase in the use of last-resort compounds, both in HICs and LMICs, such as glycylcyclines, oxazolidinones, carbapenems, and polymyxins. Projections of global antibiotic consumption in 2030, assuming no policy changes, were up to 200% higher than the 42 billion DDDs estimated in 2015. Although antibiotic consumption rates in most LMICs remain lower than in HICs despite higher bacterial disease burden, consumption in LMICs is rapidly converging to rates similar to HICs. Reducing global consumption is critical for reducing the threat of antibiotic resistance, but reduction efforts must balance access limitations in LMICs and take account of local and global resistance patterns. PMID:29581252

  2. When do increasing carbon taxes accelerate global warming? A note on the green paradox

    Edenhofer, Ottmar [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, PO Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam (Germany); Technische Universitaet Berlin, Strasse des 17. Juni 135, 10623 Berlin (Germany); Kalkuhl, Matthias, E-mail: kalkuhl@pik-potsdam.d [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, PO Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam (Germany)

    2011-04-15

    The 'green paradox' by Hans-Werner Sinn suggests that increasing resource taxes accelerate global warming because resource owners increase near-term extraction in fear of higher future taxation. In this note we show that this effect does only occur for the specific set of carbon taxes that increase at a rate higher than the effective discount rate of the resource owners. We calculate a critical initial value for the carbon tax that leads to a decreased cumulative consumption over the entire (infinite) time horizon. Applying our formal findings to carbon taxes for several mitigation targets, we conclude that there is a low risk of a green paradox in case the regulator implements and commits to a permanently mal-adjusted tax. This remaining risk can be avoided by emissions trading scheme as suggested by Sinn-as long as the emission caps are set appropriately and the intertemporal permit market works correctly. - Research highlights: {yields} Fast increasing carbon taxes accelerate global warming if they start at a low level. {yields} Appropriately high carbon taxes can always reduce cumulative emissions. {yields} Many existing tax proposals are unlikely to accelerate global warming. {yields} Capital income taxes cannot reduce cumulative emissions.

  3. When do increasing carbon taxes accelerate global warming? A note on the green paradox

    Edenhofer, Ottmar; Kalkuhl, Matthias

    2011-01-01

    The 'green paradox' by Hans-Werner Sinn suggests that increasing resource taxes accelerate global warming because resource owners increase near-term extraction in fear of higher future taxation. In this note we show that this effect does only occur for the specific set of carbon taxes that increase at a rate higher than the effective discount rate of the resource owners. We calculate a critical initial value for the carbon tax that leads to a decreased cumulative consumption over the entire (infinite) time horizon. Applying our formal findings to carbon taxes for several mitigation targets, we conclude that there is a low risk of a green paradox in case the regulator implements and commits to a permanently mal-adjusted tax. This remaining risk can be avoided by emissions trading scheme as suggested by Sinn-as long as the emission caps are set appropriately and the intertemporal permit market works correctly. - Research highlights: → Fast increasing carbon taxes accelerate global warming if they start at a low level. → Appropriately high carbon taxes can always reduce cumulative emissions. → Many existing tax proposals are unlikely to accelerate global warming. → Capital income taxes cannot reduce cumulative emissions.

  4. Economic Analysis of HIV/AIDS Pandemic in Sub-Saharan Africa

    Nýdrle, Tomáš

    2009-01-01

    HIV/AIDS is a real threat for Sub-Saharan Countries. It increased adult mortality substantially. HIV/AIDS pandemic causes the death of the most productive part of affected population. Human capital passing on to future generations is limited. Low economic performance and income inequality induce higher HIV vulnerability. Contra wise HIV/AIDS has significant negative effect on the welfare of affected population. The sources of pandemic in Sub-Saharan Africa are not only social and cultural. He...

  5. The Prioritization of Critical Infrastructure for a Pandemic Outbreak in the United States Working Group

    2007-01-16

    stems mostly from a lack of common understanding and oversight mechanism in government or business for what fully constitutes most sectors and sub...and priorities during a pandemic event. This alignment will require substantial executive-level sponsorship, governance, and oversight to ensure...increase in telecommuting during a pandemic. The sector continues to work diligently refining best practices, business continuity plans, and homeland

  6. Alberta family physicians? willingness to work during an influenza pandemic: a cross-sectional study

    Dickinson, James A; Bani-Adam, Gisoo; Williamson, Tyler; Berzins, Sandy; Pearce, Craig; Ricketson, Leah; Medd, Emily

    2013-01-01

    Objective Effective pandemic responses rely on frontline healthcare workers continuing to work despite increased risk to themselves. Our objective was to investigate Alberta family physicians willingness to work during an influenza pandemic. Design: Cross-sectional survey. Setting: Alberta prior to the fall wave of the H1N1 epidemic. Participants: 192 participants from a random sample of 1000 Alberta family physicians stratified by region. Main Outcome Measures: Willingness to work through di...

  7. Market implementation of the MVA platform for pre-pandemic and pandemic influenza vaccines: A quantitative key opinion leader analysis.

    Ramezanpour, Bahar; Pronker, Esther S; Kreijtz, Joost H C M; Osterhaus, Albert D M E; Claassen, E

    2015-08-20

    A quantitative method is presented to rank strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) of modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA) as a platform for pre-pandemic and pandemic influenza vaccines. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was applied to achieve pairwise comparisons among SWOT factors in order to prioritize them. Key opinion leaders (KOLs) in the influenza vaccine field were interviewed to collect a unique dataset to evaluate the market potential of this platform. The purpose of this study, to evaluate commercial potential of the MVA platform for the development of novel generation pandemic influenza vaccines, is accomplished by using a SWOT and AHP combined analytic method. Application of the SWOT-AHP model indicates that its strengths are considered more important by KOLs than its weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. Particularly, the inherent immunogenicity capability of MVA without the requirement of an adjuvant is the most important factor to increase commercial attractiveness of this platform. Concerns regarding vector vaccines and anti-vector immunity are considered its most important weakness, which might lower public health value of this platform. Furthermore, evaluation of the results of this study emphasizes equally important role that threats and opportunities of this platform play. This study further highlights unmet needs in the influenza vaccine market, which could be addressed by the implementation of the MVA platform. Broad use of MVA in clinical trials shows great promise for this vector as vaccine platform for pre-pandemic and pandemic influenza and threats by other respiratory viruses. Moreover, from the results of the clinical trials seem that MVA is particularly attractive for development of vaccines against pathogens for which no, or only insufficiently effective vaccines, are available. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  8. Globalization and climate change challenges the Arctic communities adaptability and increases vulnerability

    Hendriksen, Kåre

    2011-01-01

    Globalization and climate change challenges the Arctic communities adaptability and increases vulnerability Kåre Hendriksen, PhD student, Aalborg University, Denmark The previous isolation of the Arctic will change as a wide range of areas increasingly are integrated into the globalized world....... Coinciding climate changes cause an easier access for worldwide market as well as for the extraction of coastal oil and mineral resources. In an attempt to optimize the fishing fleet by economic measures it is centralized to larger units, and the exports of unprocessed fish and shellfish to low wage...... in contemporary developments leaving them with a feeling of being powerless. The consequences of contemporary policies and the problems arising will be illustrated through examples from traditional hunting and fishing districts in Greenland....

  9. Global warming increases the interspecific competitiveness of the invasive plant alligator weed, Alternanthera philoxeroides.

    Wu, Hao; Ismail, Mohannad; Ding, Jianqing

    2017-01-01

    Global warming could accelerate the spread of invasive species to higher latitudes and intensify their effects on native species. Here, we report results of two years of field surveys along a latitudinal gradient (21°N to 31°N) in southern China, to determine the species structure of the invasive plant Alternanthera philoxeroides community. We also performed a replacement series experiment (mono and mixed) to evaluate the effects of elevated temperature on the competitiveness of A. philoxeroides with the native co-occurring species Digitaria sanguinalis. In the field survey, we found that the dominance of A. philoxeroides increased with increasing of latitude gradient while cover of D. sanguinalis decreased. In monospecific plantings, artificial warming reduced the length of D. sanguinalis roots. In mixed plantings, warming reduced both A. philoxeroides abundance and D. sanguinalis stem length when A. philoxeroides was more prevalent in the planting. Warming also significantly reduced D. sanguinalis biomass, but increased that of A. philoxeroides. In addition, elevated temperatures significantly reduced the relative yield (RY) of D. sanguinalis, particularly when A. philoxeroides was planted in higher proportion in the plot. These results suggest that the invasiveness of A. philoxeroides increased with increasing latitude, and that warming may increase the effectiveness of its interspecific competition with D. sanguinalis. Hence, under global warming conditions, the harm to native species from A. philoxeroides would increase at higher latitudes. Our findings are critical for predicting the invasiveness of alien species under climate change. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Unemployment levels after the global financial crisis linked to increase in suicides.

    2013-10-23

    The 2008 global economic crisis appears to have triggered an increase in suicides, particularly among men in Europe and America. To investigate the impact of the economic crisis on international trends in suicide, researchers conducted an analysis comparing the number of suicides in 2009 with the number that would have been expected based on trends before the crisis (2000-2007). The analysis included data from 54 countries.

  11. Increasing Globalization and AFTA in 2003: What are the Prospects for the Philippine Automotive Industry?

    Aldaba, Rafaelita M.

    2000-01-01

    The Common Effective Preferential Tariff (CEPT) scheme represents the main mechanism to remove barriers to intra-ASEAN trade. Its adoption will entail intraregional tariffs ranging from zero to five percent. AFTA and the increasing globalization (which occurs through trade and foreign direct investment) of the automotive industry poses both risks and opportunities for us. The opportunities would come from the effects of a bigger market and liberalization combined with the cost advantages that...

  12. Increasing Brand Awareness for a Born Global Through Social Media Marketing

    Amblard, Johanna

    2016-01-01

    Increasing the brand awareness and recognition among the consumers is one of the most important steps for a start-up, operating in the global business environment, where the competition is intense and risks are high. The lack of funds, personnel, experience, knowledge and managerial skills in the international business environment however limits the company’s choices in terms of strategies chosen. Especially the lack of funds has a direct impact on the marketing strategy chosen through which ...

  13. A study to identify winning strategies for the business community during the next pandemic.

    Spriggs, Martin

    2013-01-01

    This study examines the relationship between the healthcare system and the corporate sector to answer the following research question: how does the healthcare system best prepare small to medium-sized businesses for the next pandemic influenza? Data were collected and collated through a literature review, electronic survey and semi-structured follow-up telephone interviews. The participants were businesses with membership in the Alberta Chambers of Commerce, a provincial lobby group in Alberta, Canada. The findings indicate strategies that were effective in minimising impact to the business community during the H1N1 pandemic and suggest areas for the business community to improve in preparation for the next pandemic influenza. Recommendations focus on establishing new links for communication between the business community and the healthcare sector and improving strategies to increase the resilience of small to medium-sized businesses for the next pandemic influenza.

  14. Emerging influenza virus: A global threat

    PRAKASH KUMAR

    Emerging influenza virus: A global threat. 475. J. Biosci. ... pathogens and are of major global health concern. Recently, ..... cases among persons in 14 countries in Asia, the Middle ... of influenza, investment in pandemic vaccine research and.

  15. Geographical spread of global emissions: Within-country inequalities are large and increasing

    Sauter, Caspar; Grether, Jean-Marie; Mathys, Nicole A.

    2016-01-01

    In spite of the extensive literature on greenhouse gas emission inequalities at the world-wide level, most of the evidence so far has been based on country-level data. However, the within-country dimension matters for both the implementation and the policy formation of climate policies. As a preliminary step towards a better understanding of within-country inequalities, this paper measures their extent for the two major greenhouse gases, CO_2 and CH_4, over the 1970–2008 period. Using Theil-index decompositions, we show that within-country inequalities account for the bulk of global inequality, and tend to increase over the sample period, in contrast with diminishing between-country inequalities. Including differences across sectors reveals that between-sector inequalities matter more than between-country inequalities, and between-sector inequalities become the dominant source of global inequality at the end of the sample period in the CO_2 case. Finally, estimated social tensions arising from the disconnection between emissions and future damages turn out to be increasing as soon as within-country disparities are taken into account. These orders of magnitude should be kept in mind while discussing the efficiency and fairness of alternative paths in combating global warming. - Highlights: • We estimate global spatial CO_2 and CH_4 inequality using grid data for 1970–2008. • Overall spatial emission inequality is constant for CO_2 and increasing for CH_4. • Within-country inequality is rising and constitutes the main bulk of overall inequality. • An important part of within country inequality is due to differences among sectors. • The gap between emitters and victims is rising within countries.

  16. Autism and increased paternal age related changes in global levels of gene expression regulation.

    Mark D Alter

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available A causal role of mutations in multiple general transcription factors in neurodevelopmental disorders including autism suggested that alterations in global levels of gene expression regulation might also relate to disease risk in sporadic cases of autism. This premise can be tested by evaluating for changes in the overall distribution of gene expression levels. For instance, in mice, variability in hippocampal-dependent behaviors was associated with variability in the pattern of the overall distribution of gene expression levels, as assessed by variance in the distribution of gene expression levels in the hippocampus. We hypothesized that a similar change in variance might be found in children with autism. Gene expression microarrays covering greater than 47,000 unique RNA transcripts were done on RNA from peripheral blood lymphocytes (PBL of children with autism (n = 82 and controls (n = 64. Variance in the distribution of gene expression levels from each microarray was compared between groups of children. Also tested was whether a risk factor for autism, increased paternal age, was associated with variance. A decrease in the variance in the distribution of gene expression levels in PBL was associated with the diagnosis of autism and a risk factor for autism, increased paternal age. Traditional approaches to microarray analysis of gene expression suggested a possible mechanism for decreased variance in gene expression. Gene expression pathways involved in transcriptional regulation were down-regulated in the blood of children with autism and children of older fathers. Thus, results from global and gene specific approaches to studying microarray data were complimentary and supported the hypothesis that alterations at the global level of gene expression regulation are related to autism and increased paternal age. Global regulation of transcription, thus, represents a possible point of convergence for multiple etiologies of autism and other

  17. HIV/AIDS infection: The beginning of the end for today's greatest pandemic?

    Gutiérrez, F

    2017-11-01

    Recently, there have been significant advances in the fight against human immunodeficiency virus, which have increased the hopes of definitively halting its dissemination and of starting the decline of the epidemic it has caused. Transmission of the infection was drastically reduced when infected patients were given antiretroviral treatments, which boosted the diffusion of treatments to middle- and low-income countries. Global therapy coverage has doubled in recent years; meanwhile the incidence of new infections has decreased. Various curative strategies are also actively being investigated, including those aiming to induce cell resistance to the infection through gene therapy and the elimination of latent virus reservoirs. This article reviews the current situation and future developments in terms of controlling the pandemic and, eventually, curing the infection. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and Sociedad Española de Medicina Interna (SEMI). All rights reserved.

  18. Future Warming Increases Global Maize Yield Variability with Implications for Food Markets

    Tigchelaar, M.; Battisti, D. S.; Naylor, R. L.; Ray, D. K.

    2017-12-01

    If current trends in population growth and dietary shifts continue, the world will need to produce about 70% more food by 2050, while earth's climate is rapidly changing. Rising temperatures in particular are projected to negatively impact agricultural production, as the world's staple crops perform poorly in extreme heat. Theoretical models suggest that as temperatures rise above plants' optimal temperature for performance, not only will mean yields decline rapidly, but the variability of yields will increase, even as interannual variations in climate remain unchanged. Here we use global datasets of maize production and climate variability combined with CMIP5 temperature projections to quantify how yield variability will change in major maize producing countries under 2°C and 4°C of global warming. Maize is the world's most produced crop, and is linked to other staple crops through substitution in consumption and production. We find that in warmer climates - absent any breeding gains in heat tolerance - the Coefficient of Variation (CV) of maize yields increases almost everywhere, to values much larger than present-day. This increase in CV is due both to an increase in the standard deviation of yields, and a decrease in mean yields. In locations where crop failures become the norm under high (4°C) warming (mostly in tropical, low-yield environments), the standard deviation of yields ultimately decreases. The probability that in any given year the most productive areas in the top three maize producing countries (United States, China, Brazil) have simultaneous production losses greater than 10% is virtually zero under present-day climate conditions, but increases to 12% under 2°C warming, and 89% under 4°C warming. This has major implications for global food markets and staple crop prices, affecting especially the 2.5 billion people that comprise the world's poor, who already spend the majority of their disposable income on food and are particularly vulnerable

  19. Influenza in the immediate post-pandemic era : A comparison with seasonal and pandemic influenza in hospitalized patients

    Rahamat-Langendoen, J. C.; Tutuhatunewa, E. D.; Scholvinck, E. H.; Hak, E.; Koopmans, M.; Niesters, H. G. M.; Riezebos-Brilman, A.

    Background: Comparative data on severity and treatment of seasonal, pandemic and post-pandemic influenza virus infections are scarce. Objectives: To systematically analyze characteristics of hospitalized patients with influenza in the post-pandemic period compared to seasonal and pandemic influenza.

  20. Characteristics of atopic children with pandemic H1N1 influenza viral infection: pandemic H1N1 influenza reveals 'occult' asthma of childhood.

    Hasegawa, Shunji; Hirano, Reiji; Hashimoto, Kunio; Haneda, Yasuhiro; Shirabe, Komei; Ichiyama, Takashi

    2011-02-01

    The number of human cases of pandemic H1N1 influenza viral infection has increased in Japan since April 2009, as it has worldwide. This virus is widespread in the Yamaguchi prefecture in western Japan, where most infected children exhibited respiratory symptoms. Bronchial asthma is thought to be one of the risk factors that exacerbate respiratory symptoms of pandemic H1N1-infected patients, but the pathogenesis remains unclear. We retrospectively investigated the records of 33 children with pandemic H1N1 influenza viral infection who were admitted to our hospital between October and December 2009 and analyzed their clinical features. The percentage of children with asthma attack, with or without abnormal findings on chest radiographs (pneumonia, atelectasis, etc.), caused by pandemic H1N1 influenza infection was significantly higher than that of children with asthma attack and 2008-2009 seasonal influenza infection. Of the 33 children in our study, 22 (66.7%) experienced an asthma attack. Among these children, 20 (90.9%) did not receive long-term management for bronchial asthma, whereas 7 (31.8%) were not diagnosed with bronchial asthma and had experienced their first asthma attack. However, the severity of the attack did not correlate with the severity of the pulmonary complications of pandemic H1N1 influenza viral infection. The pandemic H1N1 influenza virus greatly increases the risk of lower respiratory tract complications such as asthma attack, pneumonia, and atelectasis, when compared to the seasonal influenza virus. Furthermore, our results suggest that pandemic H1N1 influenza viral infection can easily induce a severe asthma attack, pneumonia, and atelectasis in atopic children without any history of either an asthma attack or asthma treatment. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

  1. Climate change. Projected increase in lightning strikes in the United States due to global warming.

    Romps, David M; Seeley, Jacob T; Vollaro, David; Molinari, John

    2014-11-14

    Lightning plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry and in the initiation of wildfires, but the impact of global warming on lightning rates is poorly constrained. Here we propose that the lightning flash rate is proportional to the convective available potential energy (CAPE) times the precipitation rate. Using observations, the product of CAPE and precipitation explains 77% of the variance in the time series of total cloud-to-ground lightning flashes over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Storms convert CAPE times precipitated water mass to discharged lightning energy with an efficiency of 1%. When this proxy is applied to 11 climate models, CONUS lightning strikes are predicted to increase 12 ± 5% per degree Celsius of global warming and about 50% over this century. Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  2. Response of Southeast Asian Muslims to the increasingly globalized world: discourse and action

    Iik Arifin Mansurnoor

    2009-03-01

    criticism. Islam has found two major support-bases for its translation in Southeast Asia: the state and the autonomous religious leaders. With the increasing sophistication and penetration of Western colonialism, modern Muslim organizations gradually have taken over the social role of the defunct indigenous states and other institutions. Southeast Asian Muslims have shown their moral vision of the globalized world and their design to achieve it. In this article, emphasis is given to major trends in spirituality centered movement among Southeast Asian Muslims as represented by mass organizations, the reformed traditional institutions, and the more pronounced social movements in the region. Despite the fact that the state's hegemony and the ever presence of the shari'a at times interfere with and color the activities of these movements, they have undeniably demonstrated the viability and potential of spirituality centered movement in reshaping the rapidly changing and more globalized world of today.

  3. Pathogens gone wild? Medical anthropology and the "swine flu" pandemic.

    Singer, Merrill

    2009-07-01

    Beginning in April 2009, global attention began focusing on the emergence in Mexico of a potentially highly lethal new influenza strain of porcine origin that has successfully jumped species barriers and is now being transmitted around the world. Reported on extensively by the mass media, commented on by public health and government officials across the globe, and focused on with nervous attention by the general public, the so-called swine flu pandemic raises important questions, addressed here, concerning the capacity of medical anthropology to respond usefully to such disease outbreaks and their health and social consequences.

  4. Pandemic H1N1 2009 virus in Danish pigs: Diagnosis and lack of surveillance

    Larsen, Lars Erik; Nielsen, L. P.; Breum, Solvej Østergaard

    In March-April 2009, a novel pandemic H1N1 virus (H1N1v) of likely swine origin emerged in the human population globally. The first case in pigs was reported from Canada in May 2009 and presently almost all countries with pig production have reported cases. The emergence of a new influenza subtype...

  5. Vaccines for pandemic influenza. The history of our current vaccines, their limitations and the requirements to deal with a pandemic threat.

    Hampson, Alan W

    2008-06-01

    Fears of a potential pandemic due to A(H5N1) viruses have focussed new attention on our current vaccines, their shortcomings, and concerns regarding global vaccine supply in a pandemic. The bulk of current vaccines are inactivated split virus vaccines produced from egg-grown virus and have only modest improvements compared with those first introduced over 60 years ago. Splitting, which was introduced some years ago to reduce reactogenicity, also reduces the immunogenicity of vaccines in immunologically naïve recipients. The A(H5N1) viruses have been found poorly immunogenic and present other challenges for vaccine producers which further exacerbate an already limited global production capacity. There have been some recent improvements in vaccine production methods and improvements to immunogenicity by the development of new adjuvants, however, these still fall short of providing timely supplies of vaccine for all in the face of a pandemic. New approaches to influenza vaccines which might fulfil the demands of a pandemic situation are under evaluation, however, these remain some distance from clinical reality and face significant regulatory hurdles.

  6. Increasing water cycle extremes in California and in relation to ENSO cycle under global warming

    Yoon, Jin-Ho; Wang, S-Y Simon; Gillies, Robert R.; Kravitz, Ben; Hipps, Lawrence; Rasch, Philip J.

    2015-01-01

    Since the winter of 2013–2014, California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history, causing statewide water stress, severe economic loss and an extraordinary increase in wildfires. Identifying the effects of global warming on regional water cycle extremes, such as the ongoing drought in California, remains a challenge. Here we analyse large-ensemble and multi-model simulations that project the future of water cycle extremes in California as well as to understand those associations that pertain to changing climate oscillations under global warming. Both intense drought and excessive flooding are projected to increase by at least 50% towards the end of the twenty-first century; this projected increase in water cycle extremes is associated with a strengthened relation to El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—in particular, extreme El Niño and La Niña events that modulate California's climate not only through its warm and cold phases but also its precursor patterns. PMID:26487088

  7. Historic and future increase in the global land area affected by monthly heat extremes

    Coumou, Dim; Robinson, Alexander

    2013-01-01

    Climatic warming of about 0.5 ° C in the global mean since the 1970s has strongly increased the occurrence-probability of heat extremes on monthly to seasonal time scales. For the 21st century, climate models predict more substantial warming. Here we show that the multi-model mean of the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) climate models accurately reproduces the evolution over time and spatial patterns of the historically observed increase in monthly heat extremes. For the near-term (i.e., by 2040), the models predict a robust, several-fold increase in the frequency of such heat extremes, irrespective of the emission scenario. However, mitigation can strongly reduce the number of heat extremes by the second half of the 21st century. Unmitigated climate change causes most (>50%) continental regions to move to a new climatic regime with the coldest summer months by the end of the century substantially hotter than the hottest experienced today. We show that the land fraction experiencing extreme heat as a function of global mean temperature follows a simple cumulative distribution function, which depends only on natural variability and the level of spatial heterogeneity in the warming. (letter)

  8. Cooperation and diplomacy in Oceania: Transformations to the regional system and an increased global presence

    Hasenkamp, Oliver

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Oceania’s political institutions as well as the Pacific Island Countries international activities are changing. Especially Fiji’s suspension from the Pacific Islands Forum created impediments towards greater regional cooperation within this most eminent regional organization, while sub-regionalism and alternative ways of collaboration were strengthened. At the same time Oceania is receiving renewed global attention. The Pacific Island Countries become increasingly active and visible in international diplomacy. Headed by Fiji they challenge traditional alliances and perceptions and start to take greater responsibility in international organizations such as the United Nations.

  9. Strategic Engagement in Global S&T: Opportunities for Defense Research

    2014-01-01

    ameliorating global chal- lenges, such as natural and engineered disasters (e.g., Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster ) and pandemic disease outbreaks (e.g...importance of both maintaining awareness of global S&T advances and increasing engagement with other parts of the U.S. government, industry, academia...perspectives on the following themes: mission, mechanisms for technology awareness , relationship building, enterprise coordination and connectivity, and

  10. Determinants of prices increase of agricultural commodities in a global context1

    Borychowski Michał

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this article is to present the determinants of increase in agricultural commodity prices after 2006. The other specific aim is to show the factors affecting agricultural raw materials and food prices in the global context. This article is a review paper of the determinants of recent commodity and food prices spikes. However, it provides an outlook on these determinants that were the most important for the increases in the last decade. The last part of the article (conclusions to some extent is a synthesis of considerations and includes the authors’ opinions concerning determinants and an attempt to identify which ones were the most important in the growth of agricultural commodity prices. These increases in agricultural commodity prices resulted from many factors and it is very difficult to separate the individual impact of each of them, because they occurred in parallel. However, it is possible to indicate several main reasons for these price increases, which are: adverse changes in supply-demand relations in agricultural markets, increases in oil prices (and increases of the volatility of those prices, development of biofuel production from agricultural commodities (the first generation biofuels, dollar depreciation, an increase in operations of a speculative nature on commodity markets and improper economic policy that created an environment for the growth of prices of agricultural products.

  11. Increasing potential for intense tropical and subtropical thunderstorms under global warming.

    Singh, Martin S; Kuang, Zhiming; Maloney, Eric D; Hannah, Walter M; Wolding, Brandon O

    2017-10-31

    Intense thunderstorms produce rapid cloud updrafts and may be associated with a range of destructive weather events. An important ingredient in measures of the potential for intense thunderstorms is the convective available potential energy (CAPE). Climate models project increases in summertime mean CAPE in the tropics and subtropics in response to global warming, but the physical mechanisms responsible for such increases and the implications for future thunderstorm activity remain uncertain. Here, we show that high percentiles of the CAPE distribution (CAPE extremes) also increase robustly with warming across the tropics and subtropics in an ensemble of state-of-the-art climate models, implying strong increases in the frequency of occurrence of environments conducive to intense thunderstorms in future climate projections. The increase in CAPE extremes is consistent with a recently proposed theoretical model in which CAPE depends on the influence of convective entrainment on the tropospheric lapse rate, and we demonstrate the importance of this influence for simulated CAPE extremes using a climate model in which the convective entrainment rate is varied. We further show that the theoretical model is able to account for the climatological relationship between CAPE and a measure of lower-tropospheric humidity in simulations and in observations. Our results provide a physical basis on which to understand projected future increases in intense thunderstorm potential, and they suggest that an important mechanism that contributes to such increases may be present in Earth's atmosphere. Published under the PNAS license.

  12. Managing boundaries between professional and lay nursing following the influenza pandemic, 1918-1919: insights for professional resilience today?

    Wood, Pamela J

    2017-03-01

    To examine lay-professional nursing boundaries, using challenges to the New Zealand nursing profession following the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic as the example. The influenza pandemic of 1918-1919 had an overwhelming international impact on communities and the nursing profession. After the pandemic, the expectation for communities to be able to nurse the sick reflects today's increasing reliance on families to care for people at home. It similarly raised questions about the profession's role and professional boundaries in relation to volunteer or lay nursing. In New Zealand, the postpandemic challenge to build community lay nursing capacity tested these boundaries. Historical research. Analysis of historical primary sources of official reports, newspaper accounts, articles in New Zealand's professional nursing journal Kai Tiaki and the memoir of Hester Maclean, the country's chief nurse. Interpretation of findings in relation to secondary sources examining similar historical tensions between professional and lay nursing, and to the more recent notion of professional resilience. Maclean guarded nursing's professional boundaries by maintaining considerable control over community instruction in nursing and by strenuously resisting the suggestion that this should be done in hospitals where professional nurses trained. This historical example shows how the nursing profession faced the perceived threat to its professional boundaries. It also shows how competing goals of building community lay nursing capacity and protecting professional boundaries can be effectively managed. In the context of a global nursing shortage, limited healthcare budgets and a consequently increasing reliance on households to provide care for family members, this historical research shows nurses today that similar issues have been faced and effectively managed in the past. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Mitigation approaches to combat the flu pandemic.

    Chawla, Raman; Sharma, Rakesh Kumar; Madaan, Deepali; Dubey, Neha; Arora, Rajesh; Goel, Rajeev; Singh, Shefali; Kaushik, Vinod; Singh, Pankaj Kumar; Chabbra, Vivek; Bhardwaj, Janak Raj

    2009-07-01

    Management of flu pandemic is a perpetual challenge for the medical fraternity since time immemorial. Animal to human transmission has been observed thrice in the last century within an average range of 11-39 years of antigenic recycling. The recent outbreak of influenza A (H1N1, also termed as swine flu), first reported in Mexico on April 26, 2009, occurred in the forty first year since last reported flu pandemic (July 1968). Within less than 50 days, it has assumed pandemic proportions (phase VI) affecting over 76 countries with 163 deaths/35,928 cases (as on 15(th) June 2009). It indicated the re-emergence of genetically reassorted virus having strains endemic to humans, swine and avian (H5N1). The World Health Organisation (WHO) member states have already pulled up their socks and geared up to combat such criticalities. Earlier outbreaks of avian flu (H5N1) in different countries led WHO to develop pandemic preparedness strategies with national/regional plans on pandemic preparedness. Numerous factors related to climatic conditions, socio-economic strata, governance and sharing of information/logistics at all levels have been considered critical indicators in monitoring the dynamics of escalation towards a pandemic situation.The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), Government of India, with the active cooperation of UN agencies and other stakeholders/experts has formulated a concept paper on role of nonhealth service providers during pandemics in April 2008 and released national guidelines - management of biological disasters in July 2008. These guidelines enumerate that the success of medical management endeavors like pharmaceutical (anti-viral Oseltamivir and Zanamivir therapies), nonpharmaceutical interventions and vaccination development etc., largely depends on level of resistance offered by mutagenic viral strain and rationale use of pharmaco therapeutic interventions. This article describes the mitigation approach to combat flu pandemic with

  14. Mitigation Approaches to Combat the Flu Pandemic

    Chawla, Raman; Sharma, Rakesh Kumar; Madaan, Deepali; Dubey, Neha; Arora, Rajesh; Goel, Rajeev; Singh, Shefali; Kaushik, Vinod; Singh, Pankaj Kumar; Chabbra, Vivek; Bhardwaj, Janak Raj

    2009-01-01

    Management of flu pandemic is a perpetual challenge for the medical fraternity since time immemorial. Animal to human transmission has been observed thrice in the last century within an average range of 11-39 years of antigenic recycling. The recent outbreak of influenza A (H1N1, also termed as swine flu), first reported in Mexico on April 26, 2009, occurred in the forty first year since last reported flu pandemic (July 1968). Within less than 50 days, it has assumed pandemic proportions (phase VI) affecting over 76 countries with 163 deaths/35,928 cases (as on 15th June 2009). It indicated the re-emergence of genetically reassorted virus having strains endemic to humans, swine and avian (H5N1). The World Health Organisation (WHO) member states have already pulled up their socks and geared up to combat such criticalities. Earlier outbreaks of avian flu (H5N1) in different countries led WHO to develop pandemic preparedness strategies with national/regional plans on pandemic preparedness. Numerous factors related to climatic conditions, socio-economic strata, governance and sharing of information/logistics at all levels have been considered critical indicators in monitoring the dynamics of escalation towards a pandemic situation. The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), Government of India, with the active cooperation of UN agencies and other stakeholders/experts has formulated a concept paper on role of nonhealth service providers during pandemics in April 2008 and released national guidelines - management of biological disasters in July 2008. These guidelines enumerate that the success of medical management endeavors like pharmaceutical (anti-viral Oseltamivir and Zanamivir therapies), nonpharmaceutical interventions and vaccination development etc., largely depends on level of resistance offered by mutagenic viral strain and rationale use of pharmaco therapeutic interventions. This article describes the mitigation approach to combat flu pandemic with its

  15. Global market integration increases likelihood that a future African Green Revolution could increase crop land use and CO2 emissions.

    Hertel, Thomas W; Ramankutty, Navin; Baldos, Uris Lantz C

    2014-09-23

    There has been a resurgence of interest in the impacts of agricultural productivity on land use and the environment. At the center of this debate is the assertion that agricultural innovation is land sparing. However, numerous case studies and global empirical studies have found little evidence of higher yields being accompanied by reduced area. We find that these studies overlook two crucial factors: estimation of a true counterfactual scenario and a tendency to adopt a regional, rather than a global, perspective. This paper introduces a general framework for analyzing the impacts of regional and global innovation on long run crop output, prices, land rents, land use, and associated CO2 emissions. In so doing, it facilitates a reconciliation of the apparently conflicting views of the impacts of agricultural productivity growth on global land use and environmental quality. Our historical analysis demonstrates that the Green Revolution in Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East was unambiguously land and emissions sparing, compared with a counterfactual world without these innovations. In contrast, we find that the environmental impacts of a prospective African Green Revolution are potentially ambiguous. We trace these divergent outcomes to relative differences between the innovating region and the rest of the world in yields, emissions efficiencies, cropland supply response, and intensification potential. Globalization of agriculture raises the potential for adverse environmental consequences. However, if sustained for several decades, an African Green Revolution will eventually become land sparing.

  16. Global market integration increases likelihood that a future African Green Revolution could increase crop land use and CO2 emissions

    Hertel, Thomas W.; Ramankutty, Navin; Baldos, Uris Lantz C.

    2014-01-01

    There has been a resurgence of interest in the impacts of agricultural productivity on land use and the environment. At the center of this debate is the assertion that agricultural innovation is land sparing. However, numerous case studies and global empirical studies have found little evidence of higher yields being accompanied by reduced area. We find that these studies overlook two crucial factors: estimation of a true counterfactual scenario and a tendency to adopt a regional, rather than a global, perspective. This paper introduces a general framework for analyzing the impacts of regional and global innovation on long run crop output, prices, land rents, land use, and associated CO2 emissions. In so doing, it facilitates a reconciliation of the apparently conflicting views of the impacts of agricultural productivity growth on global land use and environmental quality. Our historical analysis demonstrates that the Green Revolution in Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East was unambiguously land and emissions sparing, compared with a counterfactual world without these innovations. In contrast, we find that the environmental impacts of a prospective African Green Revolution are potentially ambiguous. We trace these divergent outcomes to relative differences between the innovating region and the rest of the world in yields, emissions efficiencies, cropland supply response, and intensification potential. Globalization of agriculture raises the potential for adverse environmental consequences. However, if sustained for several decades, an African Green Revolution will eventually become land sparing. PMID:25201962

  17. A neighborhood susceptibility index for planning of local physical interventions in response to pandemic influenza outbreaks

    Timpka, Toomas; Eriksson, Henrik; Strömgren, Magnus; Eriksson, Olle; Ekberg, Joakim; Grimvall, Anders; Nyce, James; Gursky, Elin; Holm, Einar

    2010-01-01

    The global spread of a novel A (H1N1) influenza virus in 2009 has highlighted the possibility of a devastating pandemic similar to the ‘Spanish flu’ of 1917–1918. Responding to such pandemics requires careful planning for the early phases where there is no availability of pandemic vaccine. We set out to compute a Neighborhood Influenza Susceptibility Index (NISI) describing the vulnerability of local communities of different geo-socio-physical structure to a pandemic influenza outbreak. We used a spatially explicit geo-physical model of Linköping municipality (pop. 136,240) in Sweden, and employed an ontology-modeling tool to define simulation models and transmission settings. We found considerable differences in NISI between neighborhoods corresponding to primary care areas with regard to early progress of the outbreak, as well as in terms of the total accumulated share of infected residents counted after the outbreak. The NISI can be used in local preparations of physical response measures during pandemics. PMID:21347087

  18. Flawed citation practices facilitate the unsubstantiated perception of a global trend toward increased jellyfish blooms

    Sanz-Martí n, Marina; Pitt, Kylie A.; Condon, Robert H.; Lucas, Cathy H.; Novaes de Santana, Charles; Duarte, Carlos M.

    2016-01-01

    Speculation over a global rise in jellyfish populations has become widespread in the scientific literature, but until recently the purported ‘global increase’ had not been tested. Here we present a citation analysis of peer-reviewed literature to track the evolution of the current perception of increases in jellyfish and identify key papers involved in its establishment. Trend statements and citation threads were reviewed and arranged in a citation network. Trend statements were assessed according their degree of affirmation and spatial scale, and the appropriateness of the citations used to support statements was assessed. Analyses showed that 48.9% of publications misinterpreted the conclusions of cited sources, with a bias towards claiming jellyfish populations are increasing, with a single review having the most influence on the network. Collectively, these disparities resulted in a network based on unsubstantiated statements and citation threads. As a community, we must ensure our statements about scientific findings in general are accurately substantiated and carefully communicated such that incorrect perceptions, as in the case of jellyfish blooms, do not develop in the absence of rigorous testing. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd

  19. Closing the gap: global potential for increasing biofuel production through agricultural intensification

    Johnston, Matt; Foley, J; Mueller, N D; Licker, R; Holloway, T; Barford, C; Kucharik, C

    2011-01-01

    Since the end of World War II, global agriculture has undergone a period of rapid intensification achieved through a combination of increased applications of chemical fertilizers, pesticides, and herbicides, the implementation of best management practice techniques, mechanization, irrigation, and more recently, through the use of optimized seed varieties and genetic engineering. However, not all crops and not all regions of the world have realized the same improvements in agricultural intensity. In this study we examine both the magnitude and spatial variation of new agricultural production potential from closing of 'yield gaps' for 20 ethanol and biodiesel feedstock crops. With biofuels coming under increasing pressure to slow or eliminate indirect land-use conversion, the use of targeted intensification via established agricultural practices might offer an alternative for continued growth. We find that by closing the 50th percentile production gap-essentially improving global yields to median levels-the 20 crops in this study could provide approximately 112.5 billion liters of new ethanol and 8.5 billion liters of new biodiesel production. This study is intended to be an important new resource for scientists and policymakers alike-helping to more accurately understand spatial variation of yield and agricultural intensification potential, as well as employing these data to better utilize existing infrastructure and optimize the distribution of development and aid capital.

  20. Threat of plastic pollution to seabirds is global, pervasive, and increasing

    Wilcox, Chris; Van Sebille, Erik; Hardesty, Britta Denise

    2015-01-01

    Plastic pollution in the ocean is a global concern; concentrations reach 580,000 pieces per km2 and production is increasing exponentially. Although a large number of empirical studies provide emerging evidence of impacts to wildlife, there has been little systematic assessment of risk. We performed a spatial risk analysis using predicted debris distributions and ranges for 186 seabird species to model debris exposure. We adjusted the model using published data on plastic ingestion by seabirds. Eighty of 135 (59%) species with studies reported in the literature between 1962 and 2012 had ingested plastic, and, within those studies, on average 29% of individuals had plastic in their gut. Standardizing the data for time and species, we estimate the ingestion rate would reach 90% of individuals if these studies were conducted today. Using these results from the literature, we tuned our risk model and were able to capture 71% of the variation in plastic ingestion based on a model including exposure, time, study method, and body size. We used this tuned model to predict risk across seabird species at the global scale. The highest area of expected impact occurs at the Southern Ocean boundary in the Tasman Sea between Australia and New Zealand, which contrasts with previous work identifying this area as having low anthropogenic pressures and concentrations of marine debris. We predict that plastics ingestion is increasing in seabirds, that it will reach 99% of all species by 2050, and that effective waste management can reduce this threat. PMID:26324886

  1. Threat of plastic pollution to seabirds is global, pervasive, and increasing.

    Wilcox, Chris; Van Sebille, Erik; Hardesty, Britta Denise

    2015-09-22

    Plastic pollution in the ocean is a global concern; concentrations reach 580,000 pieces per km(2) and production is increasing exponentially. Although a large number of empirical studies provide emerging evidence of impacts to wildlife, there has been little systematic assessment of risk. We performed a spatial risk analysis using predicted debris distributions and ranges for 186 seabird species to model debris exposure. We adjusted the model using published data on plastic ingestion by seabirds. Eighty of 135 (59%) species with studies reported in the literature between 1962 and 2012 had ingested plastic, and, within those studies, on average 29% of individuals had plastic in their gut. Standardizing the data for time and species, we estimate the ingestion rate would reach 90% of individuals if these studies were conducted today. Using these results from the literature, we tuned our risk model and were able to capture 71% of the variation in plastic ingestion based on a model including exposure, time, study method, and body size. We used this tuned model to predict risk across seabird species at the global scale. The highest area of expected impact occurs at the Southern Ocean boundary in the Tasman Sea between Australia and New Zealand, which contrasts with previous work identifying this area as having low anthropogenic pressures and concentrations of marine debris. We predict that plastics ingestion is increasing in seabirds, that it will reach 99% of all species by 2050, and that effective waste management can reduce this threat.

  2. Closing the gap: global potential for increasing biofuel production through agricultural intensification

    Johnston, Matt; Foley, J; Mueller, N D [Institute on the Environment (IonE), University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN 55108 (United States); Licker, R; Holloway, T; Barford, C; Kucharik, C [Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53726 (United States)

    2011-07-15

    Since the end of World War II, global agriculture has undergone a period of rapid intensification achieved through a combination of increased applications of chemical fertilizers, pesticides, and herbicides, the implementation of best management practice techniques, mechanization, irrigation, and more recently, through the use of optimized seed varieties and genetic engineering. However, not all crops and not all regions of the world have realized the same improvements in agricultural intensity. In this study we examine both the magnitude and spatial variation of new agricultural production potential from closing of 'yield gaps' for 20 ethanol and biodiesel feedstock crops. With biofuels coming under increasing pressure to slow or eliminate indirect land-use conversion, the use of targeted intensification via established agricultural practices might offer an alternative for continued growth. We find that by closing the 50th percentile production gap-essentially improving global yields to median levels-the 20 crops in this study could provide approximately 112.5 billion liters of new ethanol and 8.5 billion liters of new biodiesel production. This study is intended to be an important new resource for scientists and policymakers alike-helping to more accurately understand spatial variation of yield and agricultural intensification potential, as well as employing these data to better utilize existing infrastructure and optimize the distribution of development and aid capital.

  3. Flawed citation practices facilitate the unsubstantiated perception of a global trend toward increased jellyfish blooms

    Sanz-Martín, Marina

    2016-06-24

    Speculation over a global rise in jellyfish populations has become widespread in the scientific literature, but until recently the purported ‘global increase’ had not been tested. Here we present a citation analysis of peer-reviewed literature to track the evolution of the current perception of increases in jellyfish and identify key papers involved in its establishment. Trend statements and citation threads were reviewed and arranged in a citation network. Trend statements were assessed according their degree of affirmation and spatial scale, and the appropriateness of the citations used to support statements was assessed. Analyses showed that 48.9% of publications misinterpreted the conclusions of cited sources, with a bias towards claiming jellyfish populations are increasing, with a single review having the most influence on the network. Collectively, these disparities resulted in a network based on unsubstantiated statements and citation threads. As a community, we must ensure our statements about scientific findings in general are accurately substantiated and carefully communicated such that incorrect perceptions, as in the case of jellyfish blooms, do not develop in the absence of rigorous testing. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd

  4. Closing the gap: global potential for increasing biofuel production through agricultural intensification

    Johnston, Matt; Licker, R.; Foley, J.; Holloway, T.; Mueller, N. D.; Barford, C.; Kucharik, C.

    2011-07-01

    Since the end of World War II, global agriculture has undergone a period of rapid intensification achieved through a combination of increased applications of chemical fertilizers, pesticides, and herbicides, the implementation of best management practice techniques, mechanization, irrigation, and more recently, through the use of optimized seed varieties and genetic engineering. However, not all crops and not all regions of the world have realized the same improvements in agricultural intensity. In this study we examine both the magnitude and spatial variation of new agricultural production potential from closing of 'yield gaps' for 20 ethanol and biodiesel feedstock crops. With biofuels coming under increasing pressure to slow or eliminate indirect land-use conversion, the use of targeted intensification via established agricultural practices might offer an alternative for continued growth. We find that by closing the 50th percentile production gap—essentially improving global yields to median levels—the 20 crops in this study could provide approximately 112.5 billion liters of new ethanol and 8.5 billion liters of new biodiesel production. This study is intended to be an important new resource for scientists and policymakers alike—helping to more accurately understand spatial variation of yield and agricultural intensification potential, as well as employing these data to better utilize existing infrastructure and optimize the distribution of development and aid capital.

  5. Technology transfer of oil-in-water emulsion adjuvant manufacturing for pandemic influenza vaccine production in Romania: Preclinical evaluation of split virion inactivated H5N1 vaccine with adjuvant.

    Stavaru, Crina; Onu, Adrian; Lupulescu, Emilia; Tucureanu, Catalin; Rasid, Orhan; Vlase, Ene; Coman, Cristin; Caras, Iuliana; Ghiorghisor, Alina; Berbecila, Laurentiu; Tofan, Vlad; Bowen, Richard A; Marlenee, Nicole; Hartwig, Airn; Bielefeldt-Ohmann, Helle; Baldwin, Susan L; Van Hoeven, Neal; Vedvick, Thomas S; Huynh, Chuong; O'Hara, Michael K; Noah, Diana L; Fox, Christopher B

    2016-04-02

    Millions of seasonal and pandemic influenza vaccine doses containing oil-in-water emulsion adjuvant have been administered in order to enhance and broaden immune responses and to facilitate antigen sparing. Despite the enactment of a Global Action Plan for Influenza Vaccines and a multi-fold increase in production capabilities over the past 10 years, worldwide capacity for pandemic influenza vaccine production is still limited. In developing countries, where routine influenza vaccination is not fully established, additional measures are needed to ensure adequate supply of pandemic influenza vaccines without dependence on the shipment of aid from other, potentially impacted first-world countries. Adaptation of influenza vaccine and adjuvant technologies by developing country influenza vaccine manufacturers may enable antigen sparing and corresponding increases in global influenza vaccine coverage capacity. Following on previously described work involving the technology transfer of oil-in-water emulsion adjuvant manufacturing to a Romanian vaccine manufacturing institute, we herein describe the preclinical evaluation of inactivated split virion H5N1 influenza vaccine with emulsion adjuvant, including immunogenicity, protection from virus challenge, antigen sparing capacity, and safety. In parallel with the evaluation of the bioactivity of the tech-transferred adjuvant, we also describe the impact of concurrent antigen manufacturing optimization activities. Depending on the vaccine antigen source and manufacturing process, inclusion of adjuvant was shown to enhance and broaden functional antibody titers in mouse and rabbit models, promote protection from homologous virus challenge in ferrets, and facilitate antigen sparing. Besides scientific findings, the operational lessons learned are delineated in order to facilitate adaptation of adjuvant technologies by other developing country institutes to enhance global pandemic influenza preparedness.

  6. Climatic changes: what if the global increase of CO2 emissions cannot be kept under control?

    L.A. Barreto de Castro

    Full Text Available Climatic changes threaten the planet. Most articles related to the subject present estimates of the disasters expected to occur, but few have proposed ways to deal with the impending menaces. One such threat is the global warming caused by the continuous increase in CO2 emissions leading to rising ocean levels due to the increasing temperatures of the polar regions. This threat is assumed to eventually cause the death of hundreds of millions of people. We propose to desalinize ocean water as a means to reduce the rise of ocean levels and to use this water for populations that need good quality potable water, precisely in the poorest regions of the planet. Technology is available in many countries to provide desalinated water at a justifiable cost considering the lives threatened both in coastal and desertified areas.

  7. Global Trends in Alzheimer Disease Clinical Development: Increasing the Probability of Success.

    Sugino, Haruhiko; Watanabe, Akihito; Amada, Naoki; Yamamoto, Miho; Ohgi, Yuta; Kostic, Dusan; Sanchez, Raymond

    2015-08-01

    Alzheimer disease (AD) is a growing global health and economic issue as elderly populations increase dramatically across the world. Despite the many clinical trials conducted, currently no approved disease-modifying treatment exists. In this commentary, the present status of AD drug development and the grounds for collaborations between government, academia, and industry to accelerate the development of disease-modifying AD therapies are discussed. Official government documents, literature, and news releases were surveyed by MEDLINE and website research. Currently approved anti-AD drugs provide only short-lived symptomatic improvements, which have no effect on the underlying pathogenic mechanisms or progression of the disease. The failure to approve a disease-modifying drug for AD may be because the progression of AD in the patient populations enrolled in clinical studies was too advanced for drugs to demonstrate cognitive and functional improvements. The US Food and Drug Administration and the European Medicines Agency recently published draft guidance for industry which discusses approaches for conducting clinical studies with patients in early AD stages. For successful clinical trials in early-stage AD, however, it will be necessary to identify biomarkers highly correlated with the clinical onset and the longitudinal progress of AD. In addition, because of the high cost and length of clinical AD studies, support in the form of global initiatives and collaborations between government, industry, and academia is needed. In response to this situation, national guidance and international collaborations have been established. Global initiatives are focusing on 2025 as a goal to provide new treatment options, and early signs of success in biomarker and drug development are already emerging. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier HS Journals, Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Shortwave and longwave radiative contributions to global warming under increasing CO2

    Donohoe, Aaron; Armour, Kyle C.; Pendergrass, Angeline G.; Battisti, David S.

    2014-01-01

    In response to increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2, high-end general circulation models (GCMs) simulate an accumulation of energy at the top of the atmosphere not through a reduction in outgoing longwave radiation (OLR)—as one might expect from greenhouse gas forcing—but through an enhancement of net absorbed solar radiation (ASR). A simple linear radiative feedback framework is used to explain this counterintuitive behavior. It is found that the timescale over which OLR returns to its initial value after a CO2 perturbation depends sensitively on the magnitude of shortwave (SW) feedbacks. If SW feedbacks are sufficiently positive, OLR recovers within merely several decades, and any subsequent global energy accumulation is because of enhanced ASR only. In the GCM mean, this OLR recovery timescale is only 20 y because of robust SW water vapor and surface albedo feedbacks. However, a large spread in the net SW feedback across models (because of clouds) produces a range of OLR responses; in those few models with a weak SW feedback, OLR takes centuries to recover, and energy accumulation is dominated by reduced OLR. Observational constraints of radiative feedbacks—from satellite radiation and surface temperature data—suggest an OLR recovery timescale of decades or less, consistent with the majority of GCMs. Altogether, these results suggest that, although greenhouse gas forcing predominantly acts to reduce OLR, the resulting global warming is likely caused by enhanced ASR. PMID:25385628

  9. Improvements in crop water productivity increase water sustainability and food security—a global analysis

    Brauman, Kate A; Foley, Jonathan A; Siebert, Stefan

    2013-01-01

    Irrigation consumes more water than any other human activity, and thus the challenges of water sustainability and food security are closely linked. To evaluate how water resources are used for food production, we examined global patterns of water productivity—food produced (kcal) per unit of water (l) consumed. We document considerable variability in crop water productivity globally, not only across different climatic zones but also within climatic zones. The least water productive systems are disproportionate freshwater consumers. On precipitation-limited croplands, we found that ∼40% of water consumption goes to production of just 20% of food calories. Because in many cases crop water productivity is well below optimal levels, in many cases farmers have substantial opportunities to improve water productivity. To demonstrate the potential impact of management interventions, we calculated that raising crop water productivity in precipitation-limited regions to the 20th percentile of productivity would increase annual production on rainfed cropland by enough to provide food for an estimated 110 million people, and water consumption on irrigated cropland would be reduced enough to meet the annual domestic water demands of nearly 1.4 billion people. (letter)

  10. Automatic luminous reflections detector using global threshold with increased luminosity contrast in images

    Silva, Ricardo Petri; Naozuka, Gustavo Taiji; Mastelini, Saulo Martiello; Felinto, Alan Salvany

    2018-01-01

    The incidence of luminous reflections (LR) in captured images can interfere with the color of the affected regions. These regions tend to oversaturate, becoming whitish and, consequently, losing the original color information of the scene. Decision processes that employ images acquired from digital cameras can be impaired by the LR incidence. Such applications include real-time video surgeries, facial, and ocular recognition. This work proposes an algorithm called contrast enhancement of potential LR regions, which is a preprocessing to increase the contrast of potential LR regions, in order to improve the performance of automatic LR detectors. In addition, three automatic detectors were compared with and without the employment of our preprocessing method. The first one is a technique already consolidated in the literature called the Chang-Tseng threshold. We propose two automatic detectors called adapted histogram peak and global threshold. We employed four performance metrics to evaluate the detectors, namely, accuracy, precision, exactitude, and root mean square error. The exactitude metric is developed by this work. Thus, a manually defined reference model was created. The global threshold detector combined with our preprocessing method presented the best results, with an average exactitude rate of 82.47%.

  11. Shortwave and longwave radiative contributions to global warming under increasing CO2.

    Donohoe, Aaron; Armour, Kyle C; Pendergrass, Angeline G; Battisti, David S

    2014-11-25

    In response to increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2, high-end general circulation models (GCMs) simulate an accumulation of energy at the top of the atmosphere not through a reduction in outgoing longwave radiation (OLR)—as one might expect from greenhouse gas forcing—but through an enhancement of net absorbed solar radiation (ASR). A simple linear radiative feedback framework is used to explain this counterintuitive behavior. It is found that the timescale over which OLR returns to its initial value after a CO2 perturbation depends sensitively on the magnitude of shortwave (SW) feedbacks. If SW feedbacks are sufficiently positive, OLR recovers within merely several decades, and any subsequent global energy accumulation is because of enhanced ASR only. In the GCM mean, this OLR recovery timescale is only 20 y because of robust SW water vapor and surface albedo feedbacks. However, a large spread in the net SW feedback across models (because of clouds) produces a range of OLR responses; in those few models with a weak SW feedback, OLR takes centuries to recover, and energy accumulation is dominated by reduced OLR. Observational constraints of radiative feedbacks—from satellite radiation and surface temperature data—suggest an OLR recovery timescale of decades or less, consistent with the majority of GCMs. Altogether, these results suggest that, although greenhouse gas forcing predominantly acts to reduce OLR, the resulting global warming is likely caused by enhanced ASR.

  12. Enhanced water use efficiency in global terrestrial ecosystems under increasing aerosol loadings

    Lu, Xiaoliang; Chen, Min; Liu, Yaling; Miralles, Diego G.; Wang, Faming

    2017-05-01

    Aerosols play a crucial role in the climate system, affecting incoming radiation and cloud formation. Based on a modelling framework that couples ecosystem processes with the atmospheric transfer of radiation, we analyze the effect of aerosols on surface incoming radiation, gross primary productivity (GPP), water losses from ecosystems through evapotranspiration (ET) and ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE, defined as GPP/ET) for 2003–2010 and validate them at global FLUXNET sites. The total diffuse radiation increases under relatively low or intermediate aerosol loadings, but decreases under more polluted conditions. We find that aerosol-induced changes in GPP depend on leaf area index, aerosol loading and cloudiness. Specifically, low and moderate aerosol loadings cause increases in GPP for all plant types, while heavy aerosol loadings result in enhancement (decrease) in GPP for dense (sparse) vegetation. On the other hand, ET is mainly negatively affected by aerosol loadings due to the reduction in total incoming radiation. Finally, WUE shows a consistent rise in all plant types under increasing aerosol loadings. Overall, the simulated daily WUE compares well with observations at 43 eddy-covariance tower sites (R2=0.84 and RMSE=0.01gC (kg H2O)-1) with better performance at forest sites. In addition to the increasing portions of diffuse light, the rise in WUE is also favored by the reduction in radiation- and heat-stress caused by the aerosols, especially for wet and hot climates.

  13. Atmospheric evidence for a global secular increase in carbon isotopic discrimination of land photosynthesis

    Keeling, Ralph F.; Graven, Heather D.; Welp, Lisa R.; Resplandy, Laure; Bi, Jian; Piper, Stephen C.; Sun, Ying; Bollenbacher, Alane; Meijer, Harro A. J.

    2017-09-01

    A decrease in the 13C/12C ratio of atmospheric CO2 has been documented by direct observations since 1978 and from ice core measurements since the industrial revolution. This decrease, known as the 13C-Suess effect, is driven primarily by the input of fossil fuel-derived CO2 but is also sensitive to land and ocean carbon cycling and uptake. Using updated records, we show that no plausible combination of sources and sinks of CO2 from fossil fuel, land, and oceans can explain the observed 13C-Suess effect unless an increase has occurred in the 13C/12C isotopic discrimination of land photosynthesis. A trend toward greater discrimination under higher CO2 levels is broadly consistent with tree ring studies over the past century, with field and chamber experiments, and with geological records of C3 plants at times of altered atmospheric CO2, but increasing discrimination has not previously been included in studies of long-term atmospheric 13C/12C measurements. We further show that the inferred discrimination increase of 0.014 ± 0.007‰ ppm-1 is largely explained by photorespiratory and mesophyll effects. This result implies that, at the global scale, land plants have regulated their stomatal conductance so as to allow the CO2 partial pressure within stomatal cavities and their intrinsic water use efficiency to increase in nearly constant proportion to the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration.

  14. Swine influenza and vaccines: an alternative approach for decision making about pandemic prevention.

    Basili, Marcello; Ferrini, Silvia; Montomoli, Emanuele

    2013-08-01

    During the global pandemic of A/H1N1/California/07/2009 (A/H1N1/Cal) influenza, many governments signed contracts with vaccine producers for a universal influenza immunization program and bought hundreds of millions of vaccines doses. We argue that, as Health Ministers assumed the occurrence of the worst possible scenario (generalized pandemic influenza) and followed the strong version of the Precautionary Principle, they undervalued the possibility of mild or weak pandemic wave. An alternative decision rule, based on the non-extensive entropy principle, is introduced, and a different Precautionary Principle characterization is applied. This approach values extreme negative results (catastrophic events) in a different way and predicts more plausible and mild events. It introduces less pessimistic forecasts in the case of uncertain influenza pandemic outbreaks. A simplified application is presented using seasonal data of morbidity and severity among Italian children influenza-like illness for the period 2003-10. Established literature results predict an average attack rate of not less than 15% for the next pandemic influenza [Meltzer M, Cox N, Fukuda K. The economic impact of pandemic influenza in the United States: implications for setting priorities for interventions. Emerg Infect Dis 1999;5:659-71; Meltzer M, Cox N, Fukuda K. Modeling the Economic Impact of Pandemic Influenza in the United States: Implications for Setting Priorities for Intervention. Background paper. Atlanta, GA: CDC, 1999. Available at: http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol5no5/melt_back.htm (7 January 2011, date last accessed))]. The strong version of the Precautionary Principle would suggest using this prediction for vaccination campaigns. On the contrary, the non-extensive maximum entropy principle predicts a lower attack rate, which induces a 20% saving in public funding for vaccines doses. The need for an effective influenza pandemic prevention program, coupled with an efficient use of public

  15. Household transmission of influenza A(H1N1pdm09 in the pandemic and post-pandemic seasons.

    Itziar Casado

    Full Text Available The transmission of influenza viruses occurs person to person and is facilitated by contacts within enclosed environments such as households. The aim of this study was to evaluate secondary attack rates and factors associated with household transmission of laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H1N1pdm09 in the pandemic and post-pandemic seasons.During the 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 influenza seasons, 76 sentinel physicians in Navarra, Spain, took nasopharyngeal and pharyngeal swabs from patients diagnosed with influenza-like illness. A trained nurse telephoned households of those patients who were laboratory-confirmed for influenza A(H1N1pdm09 to ask about the symptoms, risk factors and vaccination status of each household member.In the 405 households with a patient laboratory-confirmed for influenza A(H1N1pdm09, 977 susceptible contacts were identified; 16% of them (95% CI 14-19% presented influenza-like illness and were considered as secondary cases. The secondary attack rate was 14% in 2009-2010 and 19% in the 2010-2011 season (p=0.049, an increase that mainly affected persons with major chronic conditions. In the multivariate logistic regression analysis, the risk of being a secondary case was higher in the 2010-2011 season than in the 2009-2010 season (adjusted odds ratio: 1.72; 95% CI 1.17-2.54, and in children under 5 years, with a decreasing risk in older contacts. Influenza vaccination was associated with lesser incidence of influenza-like illness near to statistical significance (adjusted odds ratio: 0.29; 95% CI 0.08-1.03.The secondary attack rate in households was higher in the second season than in the first pandemic season. Children had a greater risk of infection. Preventive measures should be maintained in the second pandemic season, especially in high-risk persons.

  16. Macroeconomic impact of a mild influenza pandemic and associated policies in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda: a computable general equilibrium analysis.

    Smith, Richard D; Keogh-Brown, Marcus R

    2013-11-01

    Previous research has demonstrated the value of macroeconomic analysis of the impact of influenza pandemics. However, previous modelling applications focus on high-income countries and there is a lack of evidence concerning the potential impact of an influenza pandemic on lower- and middle-income countries. To estimate the macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda with particular reference to pandemic (H1N1) 2009. A single-country whole-economy computable general equilibrium (CGE) model was set up for each of the three countries in question and used to estimate the economic impact of declines in labour attributable to morbidity, mortality and school closure. Overall GDP impacts were less than 1% of GDP for all countries and scenarios. Uganda's losses were proportionally larger than those of Thailand and South Africa. Labour-intensive sectors suffer the largest losses. The economic cost of unavoidable absence in the event of an influenza pandemic could be proportionally larger for low-income countries. The cost of mild pandemics, such as pandemic (H1N1) 2009, appears to be small, but could increase for more severe pandemics and/or pandemics with greater behavioural change and avoidable absence. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Globalization

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  18. Globalization

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-01-01

    There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  19. Preparing for an influenza pandemic: ethical issues.

    Kotalik, Jaro

    2005-08-01

    In the near future, experts predict, an influenza pandemic will likely spread throughout the world. Many countries have been creating a contingency plan in order to mitigate the severe health and social consequences of such an event. Examination of the pandemic plans of Canada, the United Kingdom and the United States, from an ethical perspective, raises several concerns. One: scarcity of human and material resources is assumed to be severe. Plans focus on prioritization but do not identify resources that would be optimally required to reduce deaths and other serious consequences. Hence, these plans do not facilitate a truly informed choice at the political level where decisions have to be made on how much to invest now in order to reduce scarcity when a pandemic occurs. Two: mass vaccination is considered to be the most important instrument for reducing the impact of infection, yet pandemic plans do not provide concrete estimates of the benefits and burdens of vaccination to assure everyone that the balance is highly favorable. Three: pandemic plans make extraordinary demands on health care workers, yet professional organizations and unions may not have been involved in the plans' formulation and they have not been assured that authorities will aim to protect and support health care workers in a way that corresponds to the demands made on them. Four: all sectors of society and all individuals will be affected by a pandemic and everyone's collaboration will be required. Yet, it appears that the various populations have been inadequately informed by occasional media reports. Hence, it is essential that plans are developed and communication programs implemented that will not only inform but also create an atmosphere of mutual trust and solidarity; qualities that at the time of a pandemic will be much needed.

  20. Mass extinctions drove increased global faunal cosmopolitanism on the supercontinent Pangaea.

    Button, David J; Lloyd, Graeme T; Ezcurra, Martín D; Butler, Richard J

    2017-10-10

    Mass extinctions have profoundly impacted the evolution of life through not only reducing taxonomic diversity but also reshaping ecosystems and biogeographic patterns. In particular, they are considered to have driven increased biogeographic cosmopolitanism, but quantitative tests of this hypothesis are rare and have not explicitly incorporated information on evolutionary relationships. Here we quantify faunal cosmopolitanism using a phylogenetic network approach for 891 terrestrial vertebrate species spanning the late Permian through Early Jurassic. This key interval witnessed the Permian-Triassic and Triassic-Jurassic mass extinctions, the onset of fragmentation of the supercontinent Pangaea, and the origins of dinosaurs and many modern vertebrate groups. Our results recover significant increases in global faunal cosmopolitanism following both mass extinctions, driven mainly by new, widespread taxa, leading to homogenous 'disaster faunas'. Cosmopolitanism subsequently declines in post-recovery communities. These shared patterns in both biotic crises suggest that mass extinctions have predictable influences on animal distribution and may shed light on biodiversity loss in extant ecosystems.Mass extinctions are thought to produce 'disaster faunas', communities dominated by a small number of widespread species. Here, Button et al. develop a phylogenetic network approach to test this hypothesis and find that mass extinctions did increase faunal cosmopolitanism across Pangaea during the late Palaeozoic and early Mesozoic.

  1. Effect of Global Warming and Increased Freshwater Flux on Northern Hemispheric Cooling

    Girihagama, L. N.; Nof, D.

    2016-02-01

    We wish to answer the, fairly complicated, question of whether global warming and an increased freshwater flux can cause Northern Hemispheric warming or cooling. Starting from the assumption that the ocean is the primary source of variability in the Northern hemispheric ocean-atmosphere coupled system, we employed a simple non-linear one-dimensional coupled ocean-atmosphere model. The simplicity of the model allows us to analytically predict the evolution of many dynamical variables of interest such as, the strength of the Atlantic Meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), temperatures of the ocean and atmosphere, mass transports, salinity, and ocean-atmosphere heat fluxes. The model results show that a reduced AMOC transport due to an increased freshwater flux causes cooling in both the atmosphere and ocean in the North Atlantic (NA) deep-water formation region. Cooling in both the ocean and atmosphere can cause reduction of the ocean-atmosphere temperature difference, which in turn reduces heat fluxes in both the ocean and atmosphere. For present day climate parameters, the calculated critical freshwater flux needed to arrest AMOC is 0.08 Sv. For a constant atmospheric zonal flow, there is minimal reduction in the AMOC strength, as well as minimal warming of the ocean and atmosphere. This model provides a conceptual framework for a dynamically sound response of the ocean and atmosphere to AMOC variability as a function of increased freshwater flux. The results are qualitatively consistent with numerous realistic coupled numerical models of varying complexity.

  2. How Does Seasonal Flu Differ From Pandemic Flu?

    ... Past Issues How Does Seasonal Flu Differ From Pandemic Flu? Past Issues / Fall 2006 Table of Contents ... this page please turn Javascript on. Seasonal Flu Pandemic Flu Outbreaks follow predictable seasonal patterns; occurs annually, ...

  3. Tuning in and catching on? Examining the relationship between pandemic communication and awareness and knowledge of MERS in the USA.

    Lin, Leesa; McCloud, Rachel F; Bigman, Cabral A; Viswanath, Kasisomayajula

    2017-06-01

    Large-scale influenza outbreaks over the last decade, such as SARS and H1N1, have brought to global attention the importance of emergency risk communication and prompted the international community to develop communication responses. Since pandemic outbreaks are relatively infrequent, there is a dearth of evidence addressing the following questions: (i) Have the resources invested in strategic and routine communication for past pandemic outbreaks yielded public health preparedness benefits? (ii) Have past efforts sensitized people to pay attention to new pandemic threats? The Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) that was followed closely by major media outlets in the USA provides an opportunity to examine the relationship between exposure to public communication about epidemics and public awareness and knowledge about new risks. In December, 2013, we surveyed a nationally representative sample of 627 American adults and examined the associations between people's awareness to prior pandemics and their awareness of and knowledge about MERS. Awareness of prior pandemics was significantly associated with awareness and knowledge of MERS. The most common sources from which people first heard about MERS were also identified. Communication inequalities were observed between racial/ethnic and socioeconomic positions, suggesting a need for more effective pandemic communication. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  4. Partnering With Scientists To Increase the Visibility and Use of Published Global Climate Change Data

    Schmidt, L. J.; Scott, M.; Geiger-Wooten, N.; McCaffrey, M. S.; Anderson, D. M.; Eakin, C. M.

    2003-12-01

    Scientific journal articles are notoriously difficult for non-scientists or scientists outside a specialty to comprehend. Yet in societally relevant fields such as global climate change, there is an urgent need to make the published results of scientific research more accessible and useable to a broad audience. NOAA's World Data for Paleoclimatology attempts to meet this need using the Internet to distribute raw data and information products from scientific publications. The Data Center creates "What's New" pages highlighting data from recent publications, along with descriptions and ancillary information such as photographs. The Data Center also authors a "Climate TimeLine", online slide sets and photo gallery, and "Paleo Perspectives" web pages that describe the broader significance of scientific research, and how the data are used to improve our understanding of global warming, drought, and climate change. With the goal to inform and engage, the Climate Time Line provides interactive activities, and information that can be integrated into the classroom. The approach benefits a diverse audience by demystifying climate science and making it more accessible, and benefits scientists by increasing the visibility and use of scientists' published data. The success of the approach can be seen in web site user statistics and comments, and numerous awards for providing valuable information via the Internet. To solve the challenge of simplifying complex scientific problems while maintaining the accuracy and integrity of the scientific information, the World Data Center works closely with scientists who contribute the data. Underlying the effort are the hundreds of scientists who have contributed their data to the World Data Center, and reviewed and edited the online extensions of their research.

  5. Diffuse radiation increases global ecosystem-level water-use efficiency

    Moffat, A. M.; Reichstein, M.; Cescatti, A.; Knohl, A.; Zaehle, S.

    2012-12-01

    Current environmental changes lead not only to rising atmospheric CO2 levels and air temperature but also to changes in air pollution and thus the light quality of the solar radiation reaching the land-surface. While rising CO2 levels are thought to enhance photosynthesis and closure of stomata, thus leading to relative water savings, the effect of diffuse radiation on transpiration by plants is less clear. It has been speculated that the stimulation of photosynthesis by increased levels of diffuse light may be counteracted by higher transpiration and consequently water depletion and drought stress. Ultimately, in water co-limited systems, the overall effect of diffuse radiation will depend on the sensitivity of canopy transpiration versus photosynthesis to diffuse light, i.e. whether water-use efficiency changes with relative levels of diffuse light. Our study shows that water-use efficiency increases significantly with higher fractions of diffuse light. It uses the ecosystem-atmosphere gas-exchange observations obtained with the eddy covariance method at 29 flux tower sites. In contrast to previous global studies, the analysis is based directly on measurements of diffuse radiation. Its effect on water-use efficiency was derived by analyzing the multivariate response of carbon and water fluxes to radiation and air humidity using a purely empirical approach based on artificial neural networks. We infer that per unit change of diffuse fraction the water-use efficiency increases up to 40% depending on diffuse fraction levels and ecosystem type. Hence, in regions with increasing diffuse radiation positive effects on primary production are expected even under conditions where water is co-limiting productivity.

  6. Pandemic controllability: a concept to guide a proportionate and flexible operational response to future influenza pandemics.

    McCaw, J M; Glass, K; Mercer, G N; McVernon, J

    2014-03-01

    The 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic posed challenges for governments worldwide. Strategies designed to limit community transmission, such as antiviral deployment, were largely ineffective due to both feasibility constraints and the generally mild nature of disease, resulting in incomplete case ascertainment. Reviews of national pandemic plans have identified pandemic impact, primarily linked to measures of transmissibility and severity, as a key concept to incorporate into the next generation of plans. While an assessment of impact provides the rationale under which interventions may be warranted, it does not directly provide an assessment on whether particular interventions may be effective. Such considerations motivate our introduction of the concept of pandemic controllability. For case-targeted interventions, such as antiviral treatment and post-exposure prophylaxis, we identify the visibility and transmissibility of a pandemic as the key drivers of controllability. Taking a case-study approach, we suggest that high-impact pandemics, for which control is most desirable, are likely uncontrollable with case-targeted interventions. Strategies that do not rely on the identification of cases may prove relatively more effective. By introducing a pragmatic framework for relating the assessment of impact to the ability to mitigate an epidemic (controllability), we hope to address a present omission identified in pandemic response plans.

  7. Ethics-sensitivity of the Ghana national integrated strategic response plan for pandemic influenza.

    Laar, Amos; DeBruin, Debra

    2015-05-07

    Many commentators call for a more ethical approach to planning for influenza pandemics. In the developed world, some pandemic preparedness plans have already been examined from an ethical viewpoint. This paper assesses the attention given to ethics issues by the Ghana National Integrated Strategic Plan for Pandemic Influenza (NISPPI). We critically analyzed the Ghana NISPPI's sensitivity to ethics issues to determine how well it reflects ethical commitments and principles identified in our review of global pandemic preparedness literature, existing pandemic plans, and relevant ethics frameworks. This paper reveals that important ethical issues have not been addressed in the Ghana NISPPI. Several important ethical issues are unanticipated, unacknowledged, and unplanned for. These include guidelines on allocation of scarce resources, the duties of healthcare workers, ethics-sensitive operational guidelines/protocols, and compensation programs. The NISPPI also pays scant attention to use of vaccines and antivirals, border issues and cooperation with neighboring countries, justification for delineated actions, and outbreak simulations. Feedback and communication plans are nebulous, while leadership, coordination, and budgeting are quite detailed. With respect to presentation, the NISPPI's text is organized around five thematic areas. While each area implicates ethical issues, NISPPI treatment of these areas consistently fails to address them. Our analysis reveals a lack of consideration of ethics by the NISPPI. We contend that, while the plan's content and fundamental assumptions provide support for implementation of the delineated public health actions, its consideration of ethical issues is poor. Deficiencies include a failure to incorporate guidelines that ensure fair distribution of scarce resources and a lack of justification for delineated procedures. Until these deficiencies are recognized and addressed, Ghana runs the risk of rolling out unjust and ethically

  8. Safety of pandemic H1N1 vaccines in children and adolescents.

    Wijnans, Leonoor; de Bie, Sandra; Dieleman, Jeanne; Bonhoeffer, Jan; Sturkenboom, Miriam

    2011-10-06

    During the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic several pandemic H1N1 vaccines were licensed using fast track procedures, with relatively limited data on the safety in children and adolescents. Different extensive safety monitoring efforts were put in place to ensure timely detection of adverse events following immunization. These combined efforts have generated large amounts of data on the safety of the different pandemic H1N1 vaccines, also in children and adolescents. In this overview we shortly summarize the safety experience with seasonal influenza vaccines as a background and focus on the clinical and post marketing safety data of the pandemic H1N1 vaccines in children. We identified 25 different clinical studies including 10,505 children and adolescents, both healthy and with underlying medical conditions, between the ages of 6 months and 23 years. In addition, large monitoring efforts have resulted in large amounts of data, with almost 13,000 individual case reports in children and adolescents to the WHO. However, the diversity in methods and data presentation in clinical study publications and publications of spontaneous reports hampered the analysis of safety of the different vaccines. As a result, relatively little has been learned on the comparative safety of these pandemic H1N1 vaccines - particularly in children. It should be a collective effort to give added value to the enormous work going into the individual studies by adhering to available guidelines for the collection, analysis, and presentation of vaccine safety data in clinical studies and to guidance for the clinical investigation of medicinal products in the pediatric population. Importantly the pandemic has brought us the beginning of an infrastructure for collaborative vaccine safety studies in the EU, USA and globally. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Globalization

    Andru?cã Maria Carmen

    2013-01-01

    The field of globalization has highlighted an interdependence implied by a more harmonious understanding determined by the daily interaction between nations through the inducement of peace and the management of streamlining and the effectiveness of the global economy. For the functioning of the globalization, the developing countries that can be helped by the developed ones must be involved. The international community can contribute to the institution of the development environment of the gl...

  10. Can the Global Adoption of Genetically Improved Farmed Fish Increase Beyond 10%, and How?

    Ingrid Olesen

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The annual production from global aquaculture has increased rapidly from 2.6 million tons or 3.9% of the total supply of fish, shellfish and mollusks in 1970, to 66.7 million tons or 42.2% in 2012, while capture fisheries have more or less leveled out at about 90 million tons per year since the turn of the century. Consequently, the future seafood supply is likely to depend on a further increase of aquaculture production. Unlike terrestrial animal farming, less than 10% of the aquaculture production comes from domesticated and selectively bred farm stocks. This situation has substantial consequences in terms of poorer resource efficiency, poorer product quality and poorer animal welfare. The history of biological and technical challenges when establishing selective breeding programs for aquaculture is discussed, and it is concluded that most aquaculture species may now be domesticated and improved by selection. However, the adoption of selective breeding in aquaculture is progressing slowly. This paper reports on a study carried out in 2012 to identify key issues to address in promoting the development of genetically improved aquaculture stocks. The study involved semi structured interviews of 34 respondents from different sectors of the aquaculture society in East and Southeast Asia, where 76% of the global aquaculture production is located. Based on the interviews and literature review, three key factors are identified: (i long-term public commitment is often needed for financial support of the breeding nucleus operation (at least during the first five to ten generations of selection; (ii training at all levels (from government officers and university staff to breeding nucleus and hatchery operators, as well as farmers; and (iii development of appropriate business models for benefit sharing between the breeding, multiplier and grow-out operators (whether being public, cooperative or private operations. The public support should be invested in

  11. 77 FR 13329 - Pandemic Influenza Vaccines-Amendment

    2012-03-06

    ... DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES Office of the Secretary Pandemic Influenza Vaccines... Secretary issued a declaration for pandemic influenza vaccines, which has been amended a number of times. The original pandemic influenza vaccine declaration was published on January 26, 2007,\\1\\ and was...

  12. 75 FR 10268 - Pandemic Influenza Vaccines-Amendment

    2010-03-05

    ... DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES Office of the Secretary Pandemic Influenza Vaccines... potential to cause, sporadic human infections or have mutated to cause pandemics in humans; Whereas, these viruses may evolve into virus strains capable of causing a pandemic of human influenza because these...

  13. Modelling pandemics of quarantine pests and diseases: problems and perspectives

    Heesterbeek, J.A.P.; Zadoks, J.C.

    1987-01-01

    To develop a general framework for a mathematical theory of pandemics, known facts about pandemics of plant diseases are reconsidered. A pandemic is thought to consist of three parts called zero-order, first-order and second-order epidemics. The zero-order epidemic is the spread of a disease within

  14. Workplace health and safety during pandemic influenza : CAGC guideline

    NONE

    2009-11-15

    Pandemic influenza is a possible biological hazard that employers must take into account during hazard assessment and emergency planning. This report presented a guideline to all workplaces in Alberta and provided information on legislated requirements, best practices, guidelines and strategies in workplace health and safety and employment standards in the event of a pandemic influenza. The report explained the difference between a pandemic and a pandemic influenza, and why scientists expect another pandemic influenza. Pandemic influenza was described as being different from seasonal influenza. This document also explained how pandemic influenza relates to the worker and the workplace, and how the workplace can prepare for and respond to pandemic influenza. Pandemic influenza hazard categories were also listed along with steps in the hazard assessment and control of pandemic influenza. The steps involve listing the types of work and work-related activities; identifying the hazard; assessing the hazards; implementing controls; communicating the information to workers and providing training; and evaluating the effectiveness of controls. The guide also addressed emergency response plan development for pandemic influenza; first aid; and employment standards during pandemic influenza. refs., tabs.

  15. The Association of H1N1 Pandemic Influenza with Congenital Anomaly Prevalence in Europe

    Luteijn, Johannes Michiel; Addor, Marie-Claude; Arriola, Larraitz

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: In the context of the European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies (EUROCAT) surveillance response to the 2009 influenza pandemic, we sought to establish whether there was a detectable increase of congenital anomaly prevalence among pregnancies exposed to influenza seasons in general......, and whether any increase was greater during the 2009 pandemic than during other seasons. METHODS: We performed an ecologic time series analysis based on 26,967 pregnancies with nonchromosomal congenital anomaly conceived from January 2007 to March 2011, reported by 15 EUROCAT registries. Analysis...... and tricuspid atresia and stenosis during pandemic influenza season 2009, but not during 2007-2011 influenza seasons. For congenital anomalies, where there was no prior hypothesis, the prevalence of tetralogy of Fallot was strongly reduced during influenza seasons. CONCLUSIONS: Our data do not suggest...

  16. Increased Global DNA Hypomethylation in Distant Metastatic and Dedifferentiated Thyroid Cancer

    Klein Hesselink, Esther N; Zafon, Carles; Villalmanzo, Núria; Iglesias, Carmela; van Hemel, Bettien M; Klein Hesselink, Mariëlle S; Montero-Conde, Cristina; Buj, Raquel; Mauricio, Dídac; Peinado, Miguel A; Puig-Domingo, Manel; Riesco-Eizaguirre, Garcilaso; Reverter, Jordi L; Robledo, Mercedes; Links, Thera P; Jordà, Mireia

    Context: Global DNA hypomethylation is a major event for the development and progression of cancer, although the significance in thyroid cancer remains unclear. Therefore, we aimed to investigate its role in thyroid cancer progression and its potential as a prognostic marker. Methods: Global

  17. Global food supply and the impacts of increased use of biofuels

    Nonhebel, Sanderine

    In recent years prices on global food markets showed large fluctuations. The use of biomass as energy source (biofuel) in the developed world is frequently mentioned as one of the reasons for this instability. This paper compares the need for biofuel and needs for food and feed on global scale. A

  18. Influenza Pandemic Infrastructure Response in Thailand

    2009-03-05

    Influenza viruses change antigenic properties, or drift, every year and they create seasonal outbreaks. Occasionally, influenza viruses change in a major way, called a “shift." If an influenza virus shifts, the entire human population is susceptible to the new influenza virus, creating the potential for a pandemic. On this podcast, CDC's Dr. Scott Dowell discusses responding to an influenza pandemic.  Created: 3/5/2009 by Emerging Infectious Diseases.   Date Released: 3/5/2009.

  19. Mitigation approaches to combat the flu pandemic

    Raman Chawla

    2009-01-01

    The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA, Government of India, with the active cooperation of UN agencies and other stakeholders/experts has formulated a concept paper on role of nonhealth service providers during pandemics in April 2008 and released national guidelines - management of biological disasters in July 2008. These guidelines enumerate that the success of medical management endeavors like pharmaceutical (anti-viral Oseltamivir and Zanamivir therapies, nonpharmaceutical interventions and vaccination development etc., largely depends on level of resistance offered by mutagenic viral strain and rationale use of pharmaco therapeutic interventions. This article describes the mitigation approach to combat flu pandemic with its effective implementation at national, state and local levels.

  20. Designing for multiple global user populations: increasing resource allocation efficiency for greater sustainability.

    Nadadur, G; Parkinson, M B

    2012-01-01

    This paper proposes a method to identify opportunities for increasing the efficiency of raw material allocation decisions for products that are simultaneously targeted at multiple user populations around the world. The values of 24 body measures at certain key percentiles were used to estimate the best-fitting anthropometric distributions for female and male adults in nine national populations, which were selected to represent the diverse target markets multinational companies must design for. These distributions were then used to synthesize body measure data for combined populations with a 1:1 female:male ratio. An anthropometric range metric (ARM) was proposed for assessing the variation of these body measures across the populations. At any percentile, ARM values were calculated as the percentage difference between the highest and lowest anthropometric values across the considered user populations. Based on their magnitudes, plots of ARM values computed between the 1st and 99 th percentiles for each body measure were grouped into low, medium, and high categories. This classification of body measures was proposed as a means of selecting the most suitable strategies for designing raw material-efficient products. The findings in this study and the contributions of subsequent work along these lines are expected to help achieve greater efficiencies in resource allocation in global product development.

  1. Pandemic H1N1 2009 ('swine flu'): diagnostic and other challenges.

    Burkardt, Hans-Joachim

    2011-01-01

    Pandemic H1N1 2009 ('swine flu') virus was 'the virus of the year 2009' because it affected the lives of many people in this year. H1N1 was first described in California in April 2009 and spread very rapidly all over the globe. The fast global penetration of the swine flu caused the WHO in Geneva to call the infection with H1N1 a new pandemic with a rapid escalation of the different pandemic phases that ended on 11 June 2009, with the declaration of phase 6 (full-blown pandemic). This had far-reaching consequences for the local health authorities in the different affected countries and created awareness in the public and fear in the experts and even more so in many lay people. The consequences were: setting up reliable diagnostic tests as soon as possible; enhanced production, distribution and stock creation of the few drugs that were available to treat newly infected persons; and development, production, distribution and stock creation of new and appropriate anti-H1N1 swine flu vaccines. This all resulted in enormous costs in the local healthcare systems and also required smart and diligent logistics, because demand for all this was, in most cases, much higher than availability. Fortunately, the pandemic ended quite quickly (there was no 'second wave' as had been anticipated by some experts) and the death toll was moderate, compared with other influenza pandemic in the past and even to the regular annual appearance of the seasonal flu. This favorable outcome, however, provoked some harsh criticism that the WHO and healthcare systems in general had over-reacted and by doing so, a lot of money was thrown out of the window. This article describes the history of the H1N1 pandemic, the diagnostic challenges and resolutions, touches on treatment and vaccination very briefly and also comments on the criticism and arguments that came up immediately at the end and following the termination of the pandemic situation.

  2. Comparing the regional epidemiology of the cassava mosaic and cassava brown streak virus pandemics in Africa.

    Legg, J P; Jeremiah, S C; Obiero, H M; Maruthi, M N; Ndyetabula, I; Okao-Okuja, G; Bouwmeester, H; Bigirimana, S; Tata-Hangy, W; Gashaka, G; Mkamilo, G; Alicai, T; Lava Kumar, P

    2011-08-01

    The rapid geographical expansion of the cassava mosaic disease (CMD) pandemic, caused by cassava mosaic geminiviruses, has devastated cassava crops in 12 countries of East and Central Africa since the late 1980s. Region-level surveys have revealed a continuing pattern of annual spread westward and southward along a contiguous 'front'. More recently, outbreaks of cassava brown streak disease (CBSD) were reported from Uganda and other parts of East Africa that had been hitherto unaffected by the disease. Recent survey data reveal several significant contrasts between the regional epidemiology of these two pandemics: (i) severe CMD radiates out from an initial centre of origin, whilst CBSD seems to be spreading from independent 'hot-spots'; (ii) the severe CMD pandemic has arisen from recombination and synergy between virus species, whilst the CBSD pandemic seems to be a 'new encounter' situation between host and pathogen; (iii) CMD pandemic spread has been tightly linked with the appearance of super-abundant Bemisia tabaci whitefly vector populations, in contrast to CBSD, where outbreaks have occurred 3-12 years after whitefly population increases; (iv) the CMGs causing CMD are transmitted in a persistent manner, whilst the two cassava brown streak viruses appear to be semi-persistently transmitted; and (v) different patterns of symptom expression mean that phytosanitary measures could be implemented easily for CMD but have limited effectiveness, whereas similar measures are difficult to apply for CBSD but are potentially very effective. An important similarity between the pandemics is that the viruses occurring in pandemic-affected areas are also found elsewhere, indicating that contrary to earlier published conclusions, the viruses per se are unlikely to be the key factors driving the two pandemics. A diagrammatic representation illustrates the temporal relationship between B. tabaci abundance and changing incidences of both CMD and CBSD in the Great Lakes region

  3. The Role of Global University Rankings in the Process of Increasing the Competitiveness of Russian Education in the Context of Globalization and the Export of Educational Technologies

    Avralev, Nikita; Efimova, Irina

    2015-01-01

    Article is devoted to the new conditions for the development of society characterized by the reconstruction of the course of higher education by increasing the competitiveness of Russian universities in the world scientific and educational space and the global university rankings as indicators of the implementation of the integration process and…

  4. Event-related potentials reveal increased distraction by salient global objects in older adults

    Wiegand, Iris; Finke, Kathrin; Töllner, Thomas

    Age-related changes in visual functions influence how older individuals perceive and react upon objects in their environment. In particular, older individuals might be more distracted by highly salient, irrelevant information. Kanizsa figures induce a ‘global precedence’ effect, which reflects...... a processing advantage for salient whole-object representations relative to configurations of local elements not inducing a global form. We investigated event-related potential (ERP) correlates of age-related decline in visual abilities, and specifically, distractibility by salient global objects in visual...

  5. Opinion: do we have the architecture for health aid right? Increasing global aid effectiveness.

    Godal, Tore

    2005-11-01

    The advent of the new millennium has witnessed the embracing of a different perspective on global health aid. New and innovative mechanisms in health-aid financing are leading to new opportunities, focused on greater innovation, risk taking and speed. However, these opportunities might not fully materialize if the traditional approaches of channeling and using funds are followed. To maximize global aid effectiveness and to have a realistic chance of achieving the Millennium Development Goals, the implementation of a holistic approach to the global architecture of health aid will be essential.

  6. A home health agency's pandemic preparedness and experience with the 2009 H1N1 pandemic.

    Rebmann, Terri; Citarella, Barbara; Subramaniam, Divya S; Subramaniam, Dipti P

    2011-11-01

    Adequate pandemic preparedness is imperative for home health agencies. A 23-item pandemic preparedness survey was administered to home health agencies in the spring of 2010. The Kruskal-Wallis (KW) test was used to evaluate the relationships between agency size and preparedness indicators. Significant findings were further analyzed by the Mann-Whitney (MW) U post hoc test. The response rate was 25% (526/2,119). Approximately one-third of respondents (30.4%; n = 131) reported experiencing trouble obtaining supplies during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. Small agencies were significantly more likely (Krusal-Wallis [KW] = 9.2; P agency pandemic preparedness, including surge capacity and participation in disaster drills, that need to be addressed. Copyright © 2011 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. How Do You Increase Students' Global Learning in the Classroom?

    Fezzey, Hilary N.; Fujieda, Eri; Goerdt, Lynn Amerman; Kahler, Heather; Nikoi, Ephraim

    2017-01-01

    This chapter will discuss global awareness in five distinctive disciplines (Communications, Literature, Mathematics, Social Work, and Sociology). Comparisons between the pedagogies in the disciplines focus on academic settings other than study abroad.

  8. The Central Asian Journal of Global Health to Increase Scientific Productivity

    Kyle Freese

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The WHO Collaborating Center at the University of Pittsburgh, USA partnering with Nazarbayev University, developed the Central Asian Journal of Global Health (CAJGH, cajgh.pitt.edu in order to increase scientific productivity in Kazakhstan and Central Asia. Scientists in this region often have difficulty publishing in upper tier English language scientific journals due to language barriers, high publication fees, and a lack of access to mentoring services. CAJGH seeks to help scientists overcome these challenges by providing peer-reviewed publication free of change with English and research mentoring services available to selected authors. CAJGH began as a way to expand the Supercourse scientific network (www.pitt.edu/~super1 in the Central Asian region in order to rapidly disseminate educational materials. The network began with approximately 60 individuals in five Central Asian countries and has grown to over 1,300 in a few short years. The CAJGH website receives nearly 900 visits per month. The University of Pittsburgh's “open access publishing system” was utilized to create CAJGH in 2012. There are two branches of the CAJGH editorial board: Astana (at the Center for Life Sciences, Nazarbayev University and Pittsburgh (WHO Collaborating Center. Both are comprised of leading scientists and expert staff who work together throughout the review and publication process. Two complete issues have been published since 2012 and a third is now underway. Even though CAJGH is a new journal, the editorial board uses a rigorous review process; fewer than 50% of all submitted articles are forwarded to peer review or accepted for publication. Furthermore, in 2014, CAJGH will apply to be cross referenced in PubMed and Scopes. CAJGH is one of the first English language journals in the Central Asian region that reaches a large number of scientists. This journal fills a unique niche that will assist scientists in Kazakhstan and Central Asia publish their

  9. The Central Asian Journal of Global Health to Increase Scientific Productivity.

    Freese, Kyle; Shubnikov, Eugene; LaPorte, Ron; Adambekov, Shalkar; Askarova, Sholpan; Zhumadilov, Zhaxybay; Linkov, Faina

    2013-01-01

    The WHO Collaborating Center at the University of Pittsburgh, USA partnering with Nazarbayev University, developed the Central Asian Journal of Global Health (CAJGH, cajgh.pitt.edu) in order to increase scientific productivity in Kazakhstan and Central Asia. Scientists in this region often have difficulty publishing in upper tier English language scientific journals due to language barriers, high publication fees, and a lack of access to mentoring services. CAJGH seeks to help scientists overcome these challenges by providing peer-reviewed publication free of change with English and research mentoring services available to selected authors. CAJGH began as a way to expand the Supercourse scientific network (www.pitt.edu/~super1) in the Central Asian region in order to rapidly disseminate educational materials. The network began with approximately 60 individuals in five Central Asian countries and has grown to over 1,300 in a few short years. The CAJGH website receives nearly 900 visits per month. The University of Pittsburgh's "open access publishing system" was utilized to create CAJGH in 2012. There are two branches of the CAJGH editorial board: Astana (at the Center for Life Sciences, Nazarbayev University) and Pittsburgh (WHO Collaborating Center). Both are comprised of leading scientists and expert staff who work together throughout the review and publication process. Two complete issues have been published since 2012 and a third is now underway. Even though CAJGH is a new journal, the editorial board uses a rigorous review process; fewer than 50% of all submitted articles are forwarded to peer review or accepted for publication. Furthermore, in 2014, CAJGH will apply to be cross referenced in PubMed and Scopes. CAJGH is one of the first English language journals in the Central Asian region that reaches a large number of scientists. This journal fills a unique niche that will assist scientists in Kazakhstan and Central Asia publish their research findings and

  10. Communicating during a pandemic: information the public wants about the disease and new vaccines and drugs.

    Henrich, Natalie; Holmes, Bev

    2011-07-01

    To prepare for pandemics, countries are creating pandemic preparedness plans. These plans frequently include crisis communication strategies that recommend conducting pre-crisis audience research to increase the effectiveness and relevance of communication with the public. To begin understanding the communication needs of the public and health care workers, 11 focus groups were conducted in Vancouver, Canada, in 2006 and 2007 to identify what information people want to receive and how they want to receive it. In the event of a pandemic, participants want to know their risk of infection and how sick they could become if infected. To make decisions about using vaccines and drugs, they want information that enables them to assess the risks of using the products. The public prefers to receive this information from family doctors, the Internet, and schools. Health care workers prefer to receive information in e-mails and in-services.

  11. The shifting demographic landscape of pandemic influenza.

    Shweta Bansal

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available As Pandemic (H1N1 2009 influenza spreads around the globe, it strikes school-age children more often than adults. Although there is some evidence of pre-existing immunity among older adults, this alone may not explain the significant gap in age-specific infection rates.Based on a retrospective analysis of pandemic strains of influenza from the last century, we show that school-age children typically experience the highest attack rates in primarily naive populations, with the burden shifting to adults during the subsequent season. Using a parsimonious network-based mathematical model which incorporates the changing distribution of contacts in the susceptible population, we demonstrate that new pandemic strains of influenza are expected to shift the epidemiological landscape in exactly this way.Our analysis provides a simple demographic explanation for the age bias observed for H1N1/09 attack rates, and suggests that this bias may shift in coming months. These results have significant implications for the allocation of public health resources for H1N1/09 and future influenza pandemics.

  12. Pandemic Planning: Are Universities Really Prepared?

    Pokrywka, Francis J.

    2016-01-01

    Planning for a pandemic influenza outbreak at a college or university cannot be done in a vacuum. Like any emergency plan, it needs to be a coordinated effort by a dedicated and unselfish group of individuals at the university pulling together a multitude of people and resources focused on a common goal. There is an ongoing struggle among…

  13. Pandemic Influenza: Perception of Medical Students Medical ...

    ... vaccination against H1N1and 31.9% refused joining voluntary work during H1N1 pandemic. Gender, age, marital status and family number were predictors r voluntary work. Conclusion: Defective knowledge and the role of the family are the main factors predispose to further attitude of medical students regarding voluntary ...

  14. Ending the HIV/AIDS Pandemic

    2018-04-26

    Dr. Anthony Fauci, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at NIH, discusses progress made toward ending HIV/AIDS and other pandemic infectious diseases.  Created: 4/26/2018 by National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (NCEZID).   Date Released: 4/26/2018.

  15. Are we prepared to help low-resource communities cope with a severe influenza pandemic?

    Starbuck, Eric S; von Bernuth, Rudolph; Bolles, Kathryn; Koepsell, Jeanne

    2013-11-01

    Recent research involving lab-modified H5N1 influenza viruses with increased transmissibility and the ongoing evolution of the virus in nature should remind us of the continuing importance of preparedness for a severe influenza pandemic. Current vaccine technology and antiviral supply remain inadequate, and in a severe pandemic, most low-resource communities will fail to receive adequate medical supplies. However, with suitable guidance, these communities can take appropriate actions without substantial outside resources to reduce influenza transmission and care for the ill. Such guidance should be completed, and support provided to developing countries to adapt it for their settings and prepare for implementation. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Law, ethics and pandemic preparedness: the importance of cross-jurisdictional and cross-cultural perspectives.

    Bennett, Belinda; Carney, Terry

    2010-04-01

    To explore social equity, health planning, regulatory and ethical dilemmas in responding to a pandemic influenza (H5N1) outbreak, and the adequacy of protocols and standards such as the International Health Regulations (2005). This paper analyses the role of legal and ethical considerations for pandemic preparedness, including an exploration of the relevance of cross-jurisdictional and cross-cultural perspectives in assessing the validity of goals for harmonisation of laws and policies both within and between nations. Australian and international experience is reviewed in various areas, including distribution of vaccines during a pandemic, the distribution of authority between national and local levels of government, and global and regional equity issues for poorer countries. This paper finds that questions such as those of distributional justice (resource allocation) and regulatory frameworks raise important issues about the cultural and ethical acceptability of planning measures. Serious doubt is cast on a 'one size fits all' approach to international planning for managing a pandemic. It is concluded that a more nuanced approach than that contained in international guidelines may be required if an effective response is to be constructed internationally. The paper commends the wisdom of reliance on 'soft law', international guidance that leaves plenty of room for each nation to construct its response in conformity with its own cultural and value requirements. © 2010 The Authors. Journal Compilation © 2010 Public Health Association of Australia.

  17. Globalization

    Plum, Maja

    Globalization is often referred to as external to education - a state of affair facing the modern curriculum with numerous challenges. In this paper it is examined as internal to curriculum; analysed as a problematization in a Foucaultian sense. That is, as a complex of attentions, worries, ways...... of reasoning, producing curricular variables. The analysis is made through an example of early childhood curriculum in Danish Pre-school, and the way the curricular variable of the pre-school child comes into being through globalization as a problematization, carried forth by the comparative practices of PISA...

  18. Global Disease Detectives

    2010-09-21

    This podcast documents U.S. efforts to prevent, detect, and control emerging infectious diseases, such as SARS and pandemic influenza.  Created: 9/21/2010 by CDC Center for Global Health.   Date Released: 9/21/2010.

  19. Economic analysis of pandemic influenza mitigation strategies for five pandemic severity categories

    2013-01-01

    Background The threat of emergence of a human-to-human transmissible strain of highly pathogenic influenza A(H5N1) is very real, and is reinforced by recent results showing that genetically modified A(H5N1) may be readily transmitted between ferrets. Public health authorities are hesitant in introducing social distancing interventions due to societal disruption and productivity losses. This study estimates the effectiveness and total cost (from a societal perspective, with a lifespan time horizon) of a comprehensive range of social distancing and antiviral drug strategies, under a range of pandemic severity categories. Methods An economic analysis was conducted using a simulation model of a community of ~30,000 in Australia. Data from the 2009 pandemic was used to derive relationships between the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) and hospitalization rates for each of five pandemic severity categories, with CFR ranging from 0.1% to 2.5%. Results For a pandemic with basic reproduction number R0 = 1.8, adopting no interventions resulted in total costs ranging from $441 per person for a pandemic at category 1 (CFR 0.1%) to $8,550 per person at category 5 (CFR 2.5%). For severe pandemics of category 3 (CFR 0.75%) and greater, a strategy combining antiviral treatment and prophylaxis, extended school closure and community contact reduction resulted in the lowest total cost of any strategy, costing $1,584 per person at category 5. This strategy was highly effective, reducing the attack rate to 5%. With low severity pandemics costs are dominated by productivity losses due to illness and social distancing interventions, whereas higher severity pandemic costs are dominated by healthcare costs and costs arising from productivity losses due to death. Conclusions For pandemics in high severity categories the strategies with the lowest total cost to society involve rigorous, sustained social distancing, which are considered unacceptable for low severity pandemics due to societal

  20. Preclinical evaluation of the saponin derivative GPI-0100 as an immunostimulating and dose-sparing adjuvant for pandemic influenza vaccines

    Liu, Heng; Bungener, Laura; ter Veer, Wouter; Coller, Beth-Ann; Wilschut, Jan; Huckriede, Anke

    2011-01-01

    With the current global influenza vaccine production capacity the large demand for vaccines in case of a pandemic can only be fulfilled when antigen dose sparing strategies are employed. Here we used a murine challenge model to evaluate the potential of GPI-0100, a semi-synthetic saponin derivative,

  1. Increasing homogeneity in global food supplies and the implications for food security

    Khoury, C.K.; Bjorkman, A.D.; Dempewolf, H.; Ramirez-Villegas, J.; Guarino, L.; Jarvis, A.; Rieseberg, L.H.; Struik, P.C.

    2014-01-01

    The narrowing of diversity in crop species contributing to the world’s food supplies has been considered a potential threat to food security. However, changes in this diversity have not been quantified globally. We assess trends over the past 50 y in the richness, abundance, and composition of crop

  2. Increases in Global and Domain Specific Self-Esteem Following a 10 Day Developmental Voyage

    Grocott, Andrew C.; Hunter, John A.

    2009-01-01

    Although positive effects are often reported, research assessing the impact of Adventure Education and Outward Bound programmes on self-esteem is fraught with methodological weaknesses pertaining to an emphasis on scales assessing global self-esteem, a lack of follow-up measures to assess the potential long-term benefits of such programmes and…

  3. Differences in pandemic influenza vaccination policies for pregnant women in Europe

    Marnoch Gordon J

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background An important component of the policy to deal with the H1N1 pandemic in 2009 was to develop and implement vaccination. Since pregnant women were found to be at particular risk of severe morbidity and mortality, the World Health Organization and the European Centers for Disease Control advised vaccinating pregnant women, regardless of trimester of pregnancy. This study reports a survey of vaccination policies for pregnant women in European countries. Methods Questionnaires were sent to European competent authorities of 27 countries via the European Medicines Agency and to leaders of registries of European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies in 21 countries. Results Replies were received for 24 out of 32 European countries of which 20 had an official pandemic vaccination policy. These 20 countries all had a policy targeting pregnant women. For two of the four countries without official pandemic vaccination policies, some vaccination of pregnant women took place. In 12 out of 20 countries the policy was to vaccinate only second and third trimester pregnant women and in 8 out of 20 countries the policy was to vaccinate pregnant women regardless of trimester of pregnancy. Seven different vaccines were used for pregnant women, of which four contained adjuvants. Few countries had mechanisms to monitor the number of vaccinations given specifically to pregnant women over time. Vaccination uptake varied. Conclusions Differences in pandemic vaccination policy and practice might relate to variation in perception of vaccine efficacy and safety, operational issues related to vaccine manufacturing and procurement, and vaccination campaign systems. Increased monitoring of pandemic influenza vaccine coverage of pregnant women is recommended to enable evaluation of the vaccine safety in pregnancy and pandemic vaccination campaign effectiveness.

  4. Supporting Lesotho Teachers to Develop Resilience in the Face of the HIV and AIDS Pandemic

    Wood, Lesley; Ntaote, Grace Makeletso; Theron, Linda

    2012-01-01

    HIV and AIDS threaten to erode the wellbeing of teachers who are faced with an increasing number of children rendered vulnerable by the pandemic. This article explores the usefulness of a supportive group intervention, Resilient Educators (REds), in supporting Lesotho teachers to respond to the HIV and AIDS-related challenges. A time-series pre-…

  5. Prenatal exposure to the 1957 influenza pandemic and non-affective psychosis in The Netherlands

    Selten, JP; Brown, AS; Moons, KGM; Slaets, JPJ; Susser, ES; Kahn, RS

    1999-01-01

    Second-trimester exposure to the 1957 A2 influenza pandemic is a controversial risk factor for schizophrenia. Two earlier studies of the Dutch psychiatric registry failed to find an increased risk for exposed subjects, but diagnostic misclassification within the spectrum of non-affective psychoses

  6. Influenza Pandemics and Tuberculosis Mortality in 1889 and 1918: Analysis of Historical Data from Switzerland.

    Zürcher, Kathrin; Zwahlen, Marcel; Ballif, Marie; Rieder, Hans L; Egger, Matthias; Fenner, Lukas

    2016-01-01

    Tuberculosis (TB) mortality declined in the northern hemisphere over the last 200 years, but peaked during the Russian (1889) and the Spanish (1918) influenza pandemics. We studied the impact of these two pandemics on TB mortality. We retrieved historic data from mortality registers for the city of Bern and countrywide for Switzerland. We used Poisson regression models to quantify the excess pulmonary TB (PTB) mortality attributable to influenza. Yearly PTB mortality rates increased during both influenza pandemics. Monthly influenza and PTB mortality rates peaked during winter and early spring. In Bern, for an increase of 100 influenza deaths (per 100,000 population) monthly PTB mortality rates increased by a factor of 1.5 (95%Cl 1.4-1.6, ppandemic. Nationally, the factor was 2.0 (95%Cl 1.8-2.2, ppandemics. We demonstrate excess PTB mortality during historic influenza pandemics in Switzerland, which supports a role for influenza vaccination in PTB patients in high TB incidence countries.

  7. Transient global amnesia: increased signal intensity in the right hippocampus on diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging

    Matsui, M.; Sakamoto, S.; Ishii, K. [Division of Neuroimaging Research, Hyogo Institute for Aging Brain and Cognitive Disorders (Japan); Imamura, T.; Kazui, H.; Mori, E. [Division of Clinical Neurosciences, Hyogo Institute for Aging Brain and Cognitive Disorders, Hyogo (Japan)

    2002-03-01

    We report on a patient with pure transient global amnesia (TGA) whose magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) demonstrated a small region of increased signal intensity in the right hippocampus on diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI). DWI was sensitive and useful for evaluating the early stage of TGA and might help to explain the pathophysiology of TGA. (orig.)

  8. Transient global amnesia: increased signal intensity in the right hippocampus on diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging

    Matsui, M.; Sakamoto, S.; Ishii, K.; Imamura, T.; Kazui, H.; Mori, E.

    2002-01-01

    We report on a patient with pure transient global amnesia (TGA) whose magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) demonstrated a small region of increased signal intensity in the right hippocampus on diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI). DWI was sensitive and useful for evaluating the early stage of TGA and might help to explain the pathophysiology of TGA. (orig.)

  9. Toward a collaborative model of pandemic preparedness and response: Taiwan's changing approach to pandemics.

    Schwartz, Jonathan; Yen, Muh-Yong

    2017-04-01

    Over time, as newly emerging infectious diseases have become increasingly common and more easily spread, it has become clear that traditional response mechanisms have proven inadequate to the task of prevention and control. To explore whether enhanced cooperation with local government and community institutions can effectively supplement traditional state-centric public health epidemic responses. Drawing on Taiwan as a case study, we assess the role of the whole-of-society approach to epidemic response as arises from the collaborative governance literature. The approach calls for enhanced cooperation, trust building, resource sharing and consensus-oriented decision making among multiple levels of government, business, non-profits, and the public in general. The Taiwan case illustrates the benefits of the whole-of-society approach. Enhanced cooperation between state, local government and non-state institutions, particularly neighborhood committees, has resulted in a strengthened, holistic epidemic preparedness and response infrastructure. The Taiwan case provides evidence that by implementing the whole-of-society approach to pandemic preparedness and response governments can enhance their ability to manage future outbreaks. We recommend that governments beyond Taiwan's borders seriously consider adopting this approach. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  10. Gauging U.S. Emergency Medical Services workers' willingness to respond to pandemic influenza using a threat- and efficacy-based assessment framework.

    Daniel J Barnett

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Emergency Medical Services workers' willingness to report to duty in an influenza pandemic is essential to healthcare system surge amidst a global threat. Application of Witte's Extended Parallel Process Model (EPPM has shown utility for revealing influences of perceived threat and efficacy on non-EMS public health providers' willingness to respond in an influenza pandemic. We thus propose using an EPPM-informed assessment of EMS workers' perspectives toward fulfilling their influenza pandemic response roles.We administered an EPPM-informed snapshot survey about attitudes and beliefs toward pandemic influenza response, to a nationally representative, stratified random sample of 1,537 U.S. EMS workers from May-June 2009 (overall response rate: 49%. Of the 586 respondents who met inclusion criteria (currently active EMS providers in primarily EMS response roles, 12% indicated they would not voluntarily report to duty in a pandemic influenza emergency if asked, 7% if required. A majority (52% indicated their unwillingness to report to work if risk of disease transmission to family existed. Confidence in personal safety at work (OR = 3.3 and a high threat/high efficacy ("concerned and confident" EPPM profile (OR = 4.7 distinguished those who were more likely to voluntarily report to duty. Although 96% of EMS workers indicated that they would probably or definitely report to work if they were guaranteed a pandemic influenza vaccine, only 59% had received an influenza immunization in the preceding 12 months.EMS workers' response willingness gaps pose a substantial challenge to prehospital surge capacity in an influenza pandemic. "Concerned and confident" EMS workers are more than four times as likely to fulfill pandemic influenza response expectations. Confidence in workplace safety is a positively influential modifier of their response willingness. These findings can inform insights into interventions for enhancing EMS workers' willingness to respond

  11. Behavioural intentions in response to an influenza pandemic.

    Kok, Gerjo; Jonkers, Ruud; Gelissen, Roger; Meertens, Ree; Schaalma, Herman; de Zwart, Onno

    2010-03-30

    Little is known regarding which behavioural responses can be expected if an influenza pandemic were to occur. A survey comprising questions based on risk perception theories, in particular PMT, was conducted with a Dutch sample. Although fear that an influenza pandemic may occur was high, participants do not feel well informed. General practitioners and local health authorities were considered trustworthy sources of information and the information considered most urgent pertained to which protective measures should be taken. Participants reported an intention to comply with recommendations regarding protective measures. However, response and self efficacy were low. Maladaptive behaviours can be expected. Increasing numbers of ill individuals and school closures are also expected to lead to a decreased work force. Participants indicated wanting antiviral drugs even if the supply were to be insufficient. Messages regarding health protective behaviours from local health authorities should anticipate the balance between overreacting and underreacting. Also, when protective recommendations from health professionals conflict with company policies, it is unclear how employees will react.

  12. Behavioural intentions in response to an influenza pandemic

    Schaalma Herman

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Little is known regarding which behavioural responses can be expected if an influenza pandemic were to occur. Methods A survey comprising questions based on risk perception theories, in particular PMT, was conducted with a Dutch sample. Results Although fear that an influenza pandemic may occur was high, participants do not feel well informed. General practitioners and local health authorities were considered trustworthy sources of information and the information considered most urgent pertained to which protective measures should be taken. Participants reported an intention to comply with recommendations regarding protective measures. However, response and self efficacy were low. Maladaptive behaviours can be expected. Increasing numbers of ill individuals and school closures are also expected to lead to a decreased work force. Participants indicated wanting antiviral drugs even if the supply were to be insufficient. Conclusions Messages regarding health protective behaviours from local health authorities should anticipate the balance between overreacting and underreacting. Also, when protective recommendations from health professionals conflict with company policies, it is unclear how employees will react.

  13. Panglobalism and pandemics: ecological and ethical concerns.

    Rolston, Holmes

    2005-10-01

    A pandemic is a human medical problem but must be understood at multiple levels. Analysis of social and commercial forces is vital, and, more comprehensively, an ecological framework is necessary for an inclusive picture. Ecological health webworked with political and social determinants surrounds issues of human health. In this constellation of both natural and social factors, ethical concerns will arise at these multiple levels, from human health to the conservation and health of wild nature.

  14. Pandemic planning : oilsands operators and the regional municipality constantly refine strategy

    Ball, C.G.

    2008-06-15

    The Alberta government anticipates that between 17 to 43 per cent of the province's population will be affected during a potential influenza pandemic. It is expected that between 3 and 12,000 Albertans will be hospitalized and up to 3000 will die. This article discussed emergency plans made by the oil and gas industry for future pandemics. Oil sands operators in the Wood Buffalo municipality prepared plans based on guidelines made by the World Health Organization (WHO) and various government bodies. The transient nature of the region's population and its limited health resources may increase the level of risk associated with a pandemic. The planning process adopted by the region has been designed to provide staff with the ability to deal with increased numbers of people visiting the hospital. The planning process includes training exercises that range from desktop drills to the setting up of triage areas. Other plans include the identification of operations and processes that would be at risk in the event of a pandemic, as well the identification of key operations and roles. Plans are constantly being refined in order to identify new areas of risk. 1 fig.

  15. Robust Hadley Circulation Changes and Increasing Global Dryness Due to CO2 Warming from CMIP-5 Model Projections

    Lau, William K. M.; Kim, K. M.

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate changes in the Hadley Circulation (HC) and their connections to increased global dryness under CO2 warming from CMIP-5 model projections. We find a strengthening of the ascending branch of the HC manifested in a deep-tropics squeeze (DTS), i.e., a deepening and narrowing of the convective zone, increased high clouds, and a rise of the level of maximum meridional mass outflow in the upper troposphere (200-100 hectopascals) of the deep tropics. The DTS induces atmospheric moisture divergence, reduces tropospheric relative humidity in the tropics and subtropics, in conjunction with a widening of the subsiding branches of the HC, resulting in increased frequency of dry events in preferred geographic locations worldwide. Among water cycle parameters examined, global dryness has the highest signal-to-noise ratio. Our results provide scientific bases for inferring that the observed tend of prolonged droughts in recent decades is likely attributable to greenhouse warming.

  16. Understanding why the volume of suboxic waters does not increase over centuries of global warming in an Earth System Model

    A. Gnanadesikan

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Global warming is expected to reduce oxygen solubility and vertical exchange in the ocean, changes which would be expected to result in an increase in the volume of hypoxic waters. A simulation made with a full Earth System model with dynamical atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and biogeochemical cycling (the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's Earth System Model 2.1 shows that this holds true if the condition for hypoxia is set relatively high. However, the volume of the most hypoxic (i.e., suboxic waters does not increase under global warming, as these waters actually become more oxygenated. We show that the rise in dissolved oxygen in the tropical Pacific is associated with a drop in ventilation time. A term-by-term analysis within the least oxygenated waters shows an increased supply of dissolved oxygen due to lateral diffusion compensating an increase in remineralization within these highly hypoxic waters. This lateral diffusive flux is the result of an increase of ventilation along the Chilean coast, as a drying of the region under global warming opens up a region of wintertime convection in our model. The results highlight the potential sensitivity of suboxic waters to changes in subtropical ventilation as well as the importance of constraining lateral eddy transport of dissolved oxygen in such waters.

  17. Understanding why the volume of suboxic waters does not increase over centuries of global warming in an Earth System Model

    Gnanadesikan, A.; Dunne, J. P.; John, J.

    2012-03-01

    Global warming is expected to reduce oxygen solubility and vertical exchange in the ocean, changes which would be expected to result in an increase in the volume of hypoxic waters. A simulation made with a full Earth System model with dynamical atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and biogeochemical cycling (the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's Earth System Model 2.1) shows that this holds true if the condition for hypoxia is set relatively high. However, the volume of the most hypoxic (i.e., suboxic) waters does not increase under global warming, as these waters actually become more oxygenated. We show that the rise in dissolved oxygen in the tropical Pacific is associated with a drop in ventilation time. A term-by-term analysis within the least oxygenated waters shows an increased supply of dissolved oxygen due to lateral diffusion compensating an increase in remineralization within these highly hypoxic waters. This lateral diffusive flux is the result of an increase of ventilation along the Chilean coast, as a drying of the region under global warming opens up a region of wintertime convection in our model. The results highlight the potential sensitivity of suboxic waters to changes in subtropical ventilation as well as the importance of constraining lateral eddy transport of dissolved oxygen in such waters.

  18. Searching PubMed during a pandemic.

    Ole Norgaard

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The 2009 influenza A(H1N1 pandemic has generated thousands of articles and news items. However, finding relevant scientific articles in such rapidly developing health crises is a major challenge which, in turn, can affect decision-makers' ability to utilise up-to-date findings and ultimately shape public health interventions. This study set out to show the impact that the inconsistent naming of the pandemic can have on retrieving relevant scientific articles in PubMed/MEDLINE. METHODOLOGY: We first formulated a PubMed search algorithm covering different names of the influenza pandemic and simulated the results that it would have retrieved from weekly searches for relevant new records during the first 10 weeks of the pandemic. To assess the impact of failing to include every term in this search, we then conducted the same searches but omitted in turn "h1n1," "swine," "influenza" and "flu" from the search string, and compared the results to those for the full string. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: On average, our core search string identified 44.3 potentially relevant new records at the end of each week. Of these, we determined that an average of 27.8 records were relevant. When we excluded one term from the string, the percentage of records missed out of the total number of relevant records averaged 18.7% for omitting "h1n1," 13.6% for "swine," 17.5% for "influenza," and 20.6% for "flu." CONCLUSIONS: Due to inconsistent naming, while searching for scientific material about rapidly evolving situations such as the influenza A(H1N1 pandemic, there is a risk that one will miss relevant articles. To address this problem, the international scientific community should agree on nomenclature and the specific name to be used earlier, and the National Library of Medicine in the US could index potentially relevant materials faster and allow publishers to add alert tags to such materials.

  19. Plant diversity increases with the strength of negative density dependence at the global scale

    LaManna, Joseph A.; Mangan, Scott A.; Alonso, Alfonso; Bourg, Norman; Brockelman, Warren Y.; Bunyavejchewin, Sarayudh; Chang, Li-Wan; Chiang, Jyh-Min; Chuyong, George B.; Clay, Keith; Condit, Richard; Cordell, Susan; Davies, Stuart J.; Furniss, Tucker J.; Giardina, Christian P.; Gunatilleke, I.A.U. Nimal; Gunatilleke, C.V. Savitri; He, Fangliang; Howe, Robert W.; Hubbell, Stephen P.; Hsieh, Chang-Fu; Inman-Narahari, Faith M.; Janik, David; Johnson, Daniel J.; Kenfack, David; Korte, Lisa; Kral, Kamil; Larson, Andrew J.; Lutz, James A.; McMahon, Sean M.; McShea, William J.; Memiaghe, Herve R.; Nathalang, Anuttara; Novotny, Vojtech; Ong, Perry S.; Orwig, David A.; Ostertag, Rebecca; Parker, Geoffrey G.; Phillips, Richard P.; Sack, Lawren; Sun, I-Fang; Tello, J. Sebastian; Thomas, Duncan W.; Turner, Benjamin L.; Vela Diaz, Dilys M.; Vrska, Tomas; Weiblen, George D.; Wolf, Amy; Yap, Sandra; Myers, Jonathan A.

    2017-01-01

    Theory predicts that higher biodiversity in the tropics is maintained by specialized interactions among plants and their natural enemies that result in conspecific negative density dependence (CNDD). By using more than 3000 species and nearly 2.4 million trees across 24 forest plots worldwide, we show that global patterns in tree species diversity reflect not only stronger CNDD at tropical versus temperate latitudes but also a latitudinal shift in the relationship between CNDD and species abundance. CNDD was stronger for rare species at tropical versus temperate latitudes, potentially causing the persistence of greater numbers of rare species in the tropics. Our study reveals fundamental differences in the nature of local-scale biotic interactions that contribute to the maintenance of species diversity across temperate and tropical communities.

  20. Getting Risks Right:Thoughts about Increasing the Resilience of the Global Social & Economic System

    Patrick Liedtke

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The extraordinary extent of the financial crisis has inspired deep systemic reforms world-wide, rethinking financial stability, the resilience of our economic systems, and the role that national and international institutions play. While most of the ongoing activities are understandably centred on banks and the banking sector – the origin and centre of the crisis – other important elements have been relegated into secondary roles and fundamental democratic processes have been sidelined. Financial issues have crowded out real economic issues as policy-makers and politicians spend more time on the financial than the substantial (i.e. the real economy and the democratic. Two fundamental concerns need to be addressed proactively: 1. A comprehensive approach to deal with both financial and real world risks on this planet, and 2. The global governance system based on democratic principles to follow globalisation of the business (and particularly the financial sector.

  1. Does adding an appended oncology module to the Global Trigger Tool increase its value?

    Mattsson, Thea Otto; Knudsen, Janne Lehmann; Brixen, Kim

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To determine any additional value in the evaluation of safety levels by adding an appended oncology module to the Institute for Healthcare Improvement's Global Trigger Tool (GTT). DESIGN: Comparison of two independent retrospective chart reviews: one review team using the general GTT...... method and one using the general GTT method plus the appended oncology module on the same inpatient charts. SETTING: The Department of Clinical Oncology at a Danish University Hospital (1000 beds). PARTICIPANTS: All inpatients admitted to the hospital in 2010, n = 3692, biweekly sample of 10 admission...... per 1000 admission days. RESULTS: No significant (95% confidence interval) difference was found between review teams using the general GTT versus the general GTT plus the appended oncology module on the total number of identified AEs, AEs per 100 admissions, AEs per 1000 admission days...

  2. Global brain storming : oil companies increasingly tap collective intelligence to overcome technology hurdles

    Smith, M.

    2009-04-15

    This article described a novel exploration approach that Toronto-based Goldcorp Inc. took a decade ago when it placed its geological data on the web for a mass collaboration effort among the global community of geologists to identify potential drilling sites. The move resulted in the identification of 110 targets, of which half were entirely new to Goldcorp, and of which four in five struck considerable quantities of gold. The article emphasized that the computer network offers a power that has not yet been fully tapped. It described other companies that have followed suite in finding solutions to proprietary challenges, including Schlumberger, Deloro Resources Ltd., Electro-Petroleum Inc., and Proctor and Gamble Inc. among others. The Web 2.0, which serves as a platform for a range of applications, can also be used for open-source science or global brainstorming. While the idea of open innovation was a novelty a year or two ago, it has now become a necessity. InnoCentive solved a long-standing oil spill problem when a chemist from the web with no ties to the oil industry suggested a way to handle the spill. The Cordova, Alaska-based Oil Spill Recovery Institute has also sought solutions for oil spills and novel boom designs. It was concluded that at a time when research and development budgets in the petroleum industry are being cut, open innovation facilitators stand to benefit. This cross-industry collaboration does not involve geoscientists alone. Rather, it includes people from completely different fields of expertise, experience or education who can add to the real issues that the oil industry needs to address and change. 1 ref.

  3. The economy-wide impact of pandemic influenza on the UK: a computable general equilibrium modelling experiment.

    Smith, Richard D; Keogh-Brown, Marcus R; Barnett, Tony; Tait, Joyce

    2009-11-19

    To estimate the potential economic impact of pandemic influenza, associated behavioural responses, school closures, and vaccination on the United Kingdom. A computable general equilibrium model of the UK economy was specified for various combinations of mortality and morbidity from pandemic influenza, vaccine efficacy, school closures, and prophylactic absenteeism using published data. The 2004 UK economy (the most up to date available with suitable economic data). The economic impact of various scenarios with different pandemic severity, vaccination, school closure, and prophylactic absenteeism specified in terms of gross domestic product, output from different economic sectors, and equivalent variation. The costs related to illness alone ranged between 0.5% and 1.0% of gross domestic product ( pound8.4bn to pound16.8bn) for low fatality scenarios, 3.3% and 4.3% ( pound55.5bn to pound72.3bn) for high fatality scenarios, and larger still for an extreme pandemic. School closure increases the economic impact, particularly for mild pandemics. If widespread behavioural change takes place and there is large scale prophylactic absence from work, the economic impact would be notably increased with few health benefits. Vaccination with a pre-pandemic vaccine could save 0.13% to 2.3% of gross domestic product ( pound2.2bn to pound38.6bn); a single dose of a matched vaccine could save 0.3% to 4.3% ( pound5.0bn to pound72.3bn); and two doses of a matched vaccine could limit the overall economic impact to about 1% of gross domestic product for all disease scenarios. Balancing school closure against "business as usual" and obtaining sufficient stocks of effective vaccine are more important factors in determining the economic impact of an influenza pandemic than is the disease itself. Prophylactic absence from work in response to fear of infection can add considerably to the economic impact.

  4. People at Risk of Influenza Pandemics: The Evolution of Perception and Behavior.

    Xu, Jianhua; Peng, Zongchao

    2015-01-01

    Influenza pandemics can severely impact human health and society. Understanding public perception and behavior toward influenza pandemics is important for minimizing the effects of such events. Public perception and behavior are expected to change over the course of an influenza pandemic, but this idea has received little attention in previous studies. Our study aimed to understand the dynamics of public perception and behavior over the course of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Three consecutive cross-sectional surveys were administered among Beijing residents with random-digit dialing techniques in March 2008 and August and November 2009. Effective samples of 507, 508 and 1006 respondents were interviewed in each of the three surveys, respectively. The mean scores of risk perception were low to moderate across the three surveys. The perceived risk of infection of self was significantly lower than that of the community, revealing an optimistic bias. Longitudinally, the perceived risk of contracting H1N1 increased, whereas the perceived risk of being unable to obtain medicine and medical care once influenza permeated the community first increased and then decreased. Responsive actions toward influenza varied. Most respondents took actions that required little extra effort, such as ventilating rooms; these actions did not change over time. Comparatively, a smaller number of respondents took actions for coping with influenza, such as vaccination; however, these actions were taken by an increasing number of respondents over time. The association between risk perception and behavior was unstable. Positive, insignificant, and negative associations were obtained in the three surveys. In conclusion, the evolving patterns of risk perception and responsive behavior over the course of an influenza pandemic are sensitive to how risk and behavior are defined and scoped.

  5. People at Risk of Influenza Pandemics: The Evolution of Perception and Behavior

    Xu, Jianhua; Peng, Zongchao

    2015-01-01

    Influenza pandemics can severely impact human health and society. Understanding public perception and behavior toward influenza pandemics is important for minimizing the effects of such events. Public perception and behavior are expected to change over the course of an influenza pandemic, but this idea has received little attention in previous studies. Our study aimed to understand the dynamics of public perception and behavior over the course of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Three consecutive cross-sectional surveys were administered among Beijing residents with random-digit dialing techniques in March 2008 and August and November 2009. Effective samples of 507, 508 and 1006 respondents were interviewed in each of the three surveys, respectively. The mean scores of risk perception were low to moderate across the three surveys. The perceived risk of infection of self was significantly lower than that of the community, revealing an optimistic bias. Longitudinally, the perceived risk of contracting H1N1 increased, whereas the perceived risk of being unable to obtain medicine and medical care once influenza permeated the community first increased and then decreased. Responsive actions toward influenza varied. Most respondents took actions that required little extra effort, such as ventilating rooms; these actions did not change over time. Comparatively, a smaller number of respondents took actions for coping with influenza, such as vaccination; however, these actions were taken by an increasing number of respondents over time. The association between risk perception and behavior was unstable. Positive, insignificant, and negative associations were obtained in the three surveys. In conclusion, the evolving patterns of risk perception and responsive behavior over the course of an influenza pandemic are sensitive to how risk and behavior are defined and scoped. PMID:26658371

  6. Does global warning increase establishment rates of invasive alien species? A centurial time series analysis

    Dingcheng Huang; Robert A. Haack; Runzhi. Zhang

    2011-01-01

    The establishment rate of invasive alien insect species has been increasing worldwide during the past century. This trend has been widely attributed to increased rates of international trade and associated species introductions, but rarely linked to environmental change. To better understand and manage the bioinvasion process, it is crucial to understand the...

  7. Provision of pandemic disease information by health sciences librarians: a multisite comparative case series.

    Featherstone, Robin M; Boldt, R Gabriel; Torabi, Nazi; Konrad, Shauna-Lee

    2012-04-01

    The research provides an understanding of pandemic information needs and informs professional development initiatives for librarians in disaster medicine. Utilizing a multisite, comparative case series design, the researchers conducted semi-structured interviews and examined supplementary materials in the form of organizational documents, correspondence, and websites to create a complete picture of each case. The rigor of the case series was ensured through data and investigator triangulation. Interview transcripts were coded using NVivo to identify common themes and points of comparison. Comparison of the four cases revealed a distinct difference between "client-initiated" and "librarian-initiated" provision of pandemic information. Librarian-initiated projects utilized social software to "push" information, whereas client-initiated projects operated within patron-determined parameters to deliver information. Health care administrators were identified as a key audience for pandemic information, and news agencies were utilized as essential information sources. Librarians' skills at evaluating available information proved crucial for selecting best-quality evidence to support administrative decision making. Qualitative analysis resulted in increased understanding of pandemic information needs and identified best practices for disseminating information during periods of high organizational stress caused by an influx of new cases of an unknown infectious disease.

  8. The pandemic potential of avian influenza A(H7N9) virus: a review.

    Tanner, W D; Toth, D J A; Gundlapalli, A V

    2015-12-01

    In March 2013 the first cases of human avian influenza A(H7N9) were reported to the World Health Organization. Since that time, over 650 cases have been reported. Infections are associated with considerable morbidity and mortality, particularly within certain demographic groups. This rapid increase in cases over a brief time period is alarming and has raised concerns about the pandemic potential of the H7N9 virus. Three major factors influence the pandemic potential of an influenza virus: (1) its ability to cause human disease, (2) the immunity of the population to the virus, and (3) the transmission potential of the virus. This paper reviews what is currently known about each of these factors with respect to avian influenza A(H7N9). Currently, sustained human-to-human transmission of H7N9 has not been reported; however, population immunity to the virus is considered very low, and the virus has significant ability to cause human disease. Several statistical and geographical modelling studies have estimated and predicted the spread of the H7N9 virus in humans and avian species, and some have identified potential risk factors associated with disease transmission. Additionally, assessment tools have been developed to evaluate the pandemic potential of H7N9 and other influenza viruses. These tools could also hypothetically be used to monitor changes in the pandemic potential of a particular virus over time.

  9. Diabetes in Africa: the new pandemic

    ability of insulin remains a matter of life or death.1 Although the prevalence of. Type 2 diabetes is predicted to increase globally ... ney disease is likely to impact on work- ..... Nevertheless, on balance, ... organizations: IDF-Africa, WHO-AFRO.

  10. GLA-AF, an emulsion-free vaccine adjuvant for pandemic influenza.

    Clegg, Christopher H; Roque, Richard; Perrone, Lucy A; Rininger, Joseph A; Bowen, Richard; Reed, Steven G

    2014-01-01

    The ongoing threat from Influenza necessitates the development of new vaccine and adjuvant technologies that can maximize vaccine immunogenicity, shorten production cycles, and increase global vaccine supply. Currently, the most successful adjuvants for Influenza vaccines are squalene-based oil-in-water emulsions. These adjuvants enhance seroprotective antibody titers to homologous and heterologous strains of virus, and augment a significant dose sparing activity that could improve vaccine manufacturing capacity. As an alternative to an emulsion, we tested a simple lipid-based aqueous formulation containing a synthetic TLR4 ligand (GLA-AF) for its ability to enhance protection against H5N1 infection. GLA-AF was very effective in adjuvanting recombinant H5 hemagglutinin antigen (rH5) in mice and was as potent as the stable emulsion, SE. Both adjuvants induced similar antibody titers using a sub-microgram dose of rH5, and both conferred complete protection against a highly pathogenic H5N1 challenge. However, GLA-AF was the superior adjuvant in ferrets. GLA-AF stimulated a broader antibody response than SE after both the prime and boost immunization with rH5, and ferrets were better protected against homologous and heterologous strains of H5N1 virus. Thus, GLA-AF is a potent emulsion-free adjuvant that warrants consideration for pandemic influenza vaccine development.

  11. Rapid detection of pandemic influenza in the presence of seasonal influenza

    Robertson Chris

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Key to the control of pandemic influenza are surveillance systems that raise alarms rapidly and sensitively. In addition, they must minimise false alarms during a normal influenza season. We develop a method that uses historical syndromic influenza data from the existing surveillance system 'SERVIS' (Scottish Enhanced Respiratory Virus Infection Surveillance for influenza-like illness (ILI in Scotland. Methods We develop an algorithm based on the weekly case ratio (WCR of reported ILI cases to generate an alarm for pandemic influenza. From the seasonal influenza data from 13 Scottish health boards, we estimate the joint probability distribution of the country-level WCR and the number of health boards showing synchronous increases in reported influenza cases over the previous week. Pandemic cases are sampled with various case reporting rates from simulated pandemic influenza infections and overlaid with seasonal SERVIS data from 2001 to 2007. Using this combined time series we test our method for speed of detection, sensitivity and specificity. Also, the 2008-09 SERVIS ILI cases are used for testing detection performances of the three methods with a real pandemic data. Results We compare our method, based on our simulation study, to the moving-average Cumulative Sums (Mov-Avg Cusum and ILI rate threshold methods and find it to be more sensitive and rapid. For 1% case reporting and detection specificity of 95%, our method is 100% sensitive and has median detection time (MDT of 4 weeks while the Mov-Avg Cusum and ILI rate threshold methods are, respectively, 97% and 100% sensitive with MDT of 5 weeks. At 99% specificity, our method remains 100% sensitive with MDT of 5 weeks. Although the threshold method maintains its sensitivity of 100% with MDT of 5 weeks, sensitivity of Mov-Avg Cusum declines to 92% with increased MDT of 6 weeks. For a two-fold decrease in the case reporting rate (0.5% and 99% specificity, the WCR and

  12. Rapid detection of pandemic influenza in the presence of seasonal influenza

    2010-01-01

    Background Key to the control of pandemic influenza are surveillance systems that raise alarms rapidly and sensitively. In addition, they must minimise false alarms during a normal influenza season. We develop a method that uses historical syndromic influenza data from the existing surveillance system 'SERVIS' (Scottish Enhanced Respiratory Virus Infection Surveillance) for influenza-like illness (ILI) in Scotland. Methods We develop an algorithm based on the weekly case ratio (WCR) of reported ILI cases to generate an alarm for pandemic influenza. From the seasonal influenza data from 13 Scottish health boards, we estimate the joint probability distribution of the country-level WCR and the number of health boards showing synchronous increases in reported influenza cases over the previous week. Pandemic cases are sampled with various case reporting rates from simulated pandemic influenza infections and overlaid with seasonal SERVIS data from 2001 to 2007. Using this combined time series we test our method for speed of detection, sensitivity and specificity. Also, the 2008-09 SERVIS ILI cases are used for testing detection performances of the three methods with a real pandemic data. Results We compare our method, based on our simulation study, to the moving-average Cumulative Sums (Mov-Avg Cusum) and ILI rate threshold methods and find it to be more sensitive and rapid. For 1% case reporting and detection specificity of 95%, our method is 100% sensitive and has median detection time (MDT) of 4 weeks while the Mov-Avg Cusum and ILI rate threshold methods are, respectively, 97% and 100% sensitive with MDT of 5 weeks. At 99% specificity, our method remains 100% sensitive with MDT of 5 weeks. Although the threshold method maintains its sensitivity of 100% with MDT of 5 weeks, sensitivity of Mov-Avg Cusum declines to 92% with increased MDT of 6 weeks. For a two-fold decrease in the case reporting rate (0.5%) and 99% specificity, the WCR and threshold methods

  13. A Nation at Risk: Increasing College Participation and Persistence Among African American Males to Stimulate U.S. Global Competitiveness

    Adriel A. Hilton

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Today’s knowledge-based, global commerce requires continuous investment in human capital through postsecondary education for countries to be fiercely competitive. Countries, such as China and India, are experiencing growth in the number of people participating in postsecondary education; the United States has fallen behind. While America needs to focus on increasing college access and degree completion among underrepresented ethnic minorities, particularly in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM, educators and policymakers assert that this is particularly important for African American males. Increasing matriculation and graduation rates for African Americans is not only a matter of equity, but in the context of STEM, it has major implications for the competitiveness of the United States in the global economy. This article identifies strategies that educators and policymakers can employ to promote the participation of African American males in college in general, particularly in STEM.

  14. A definition for influenza pandemics based on historical records.

    Potter, Chris W; Jennings, Roy

    2011-10-01

    To analyse the records of past influenza outbreaks to determine a definition for pandemics. Analysis of publications of large outbreaks of influenza which have occurred since 1889/90, and to match the results against the current definitions of an influenza pandemic. According to the general understanding of a pandemic, nine outbreaks of influenza since 1889/90 satisfy the definition; however, for two of these, occurring in 1900 and 1933, the data are limited. The special condition for an influenza pandemic requires, in one definition, that the virus strain responsible could not have arisen from the previous circulating strain by mutation; and in the second, that the new strain be a different subtype to the previously circulating strain. Both these restrictions deny pandemic status to two, and possibly three, influenza outbreaks which were pandemics according to the more general understanding of the term. These observations suggest that a re-evaluation of the criteria which define influenza pandemics should be carried out. The contradiction outlined above brings the previous definitions of an influenza pandemic into question; however, this can be resolved by defining an influenza pandemic by the following criteria. Thus, an influenza pandemic arises at a single, specific place and spreads rapidly to involve numerous countries. The haemagglutinin (HA) of the emergent virus does not cross-react serologically with the previously dominant virus strain(s), and there is a significant lack of immunity in the population against the emergent virus. These three criteria are interlinked and can be determined early to alert authorities who could respond appropriately. Other criteria associated with pandemics are necessarily retrospective, although important and valid. The implications of this definition are discussed. Copyright © 2011 The British Infection Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Globalization quickly increased need for moving from local to international standards

    Cappelli, Cataldo

    2005-07-01

    'Standardization' quickly changed in the past few years, due to the market's globalization that needs international standards as important instruments in eliminating technical barriers to trade. The 'Petroleum Sector' chose moving to international standards jointly processed by the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) and the American Petroleum Institute (API) that played the role of historical reference. Taking into account that oil industry wants only one Standard worldwide used, also Europe decided for adopting these ISO Standards as European Standards. The result is much better considering that also Russia and China seem to adopt these ISO documents as their national standards. It is so becoming much more significant the 'motto' that ISO TC 67 'Materials, equipment and offshore structures for petroleum, petrochemical and natural gas industries' adopted for its standardization activities: 'Do it once, do it right, do it internationally'. Examples of such international Standards worldwide used as National Standards are: ISO 11960:2004 - 'Steel pipes for use as casing or tubing for wells' and; ISO/DIS 3183 - 'Steel pipe for pipeline transportation systems' (under preparation). Standardization has so grown from technical to management tool and countries are also moving, including standards in more areas of its legislations. (author)

  16. Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C

    Rogelj, Joeri; Popp, Alexander; Calvin, Katherine V.; Luderer, Gunnar; Emmerling, Johannes; Gernaat, David; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Strefler, Jessica; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Marangoni, Giacomo; Krey, Volker; Kriegler, Elmar; Riahi, Keywan; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Doelman, Jonathan; Drouet, Laurent; Edmonds, Jae; Fricko, Oliver; Harmsen, Mathijs; Havlík, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Stehfest, Elke; Tavoni, Massimo

    2018-04-01

    The 2015 Paris Agreement calls for countries to pursue efforts to limit global-mean temperature rise to 1.5 °C. The transition pathways that can meet such a target have not, however, been extensively explored. Here we describe scenarios that limit end-of-century radiative forcing to 1.9 W m-2, and consequently restrict median warming in the year 2100 to below 1.5 °C. We use six integrated assessment models and a simple climate model, under different socio-economic, technological and resource assumptions from five Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Some, but not all, SSPs are amenable to pathways to 1.5 °C. Successful 1.9 W m-2 scenarios are characterized by a rapid shift away from traditional fossil-fuel use towards large-scale low-carbon energy supplies, reduced energy use, and carbon-dioxide removal. However, 1.9 W m-2 scenarios could not be achieved in several models under SSPs with strong inequalities, high baseline fossil-fuel use, or scattered short-term climate policy. Further research can help policy-makers to understand the real-world implications of these scenarios.

  17. Global Climate Change, Food Security, and Local Sustainability: Increasing Climate Literacy in Urban Students

    Boger, R. A.; Low, R.; Gorokhovich, Y.

    2011-12-01

    Three higher education institutions, University of Nebraska-Lincoln (UNL), Brooklyn College, and Lehman College, are working together to share expertise and resources to expand climate change topics offered to undergraduate and graduate students in New York City (NYC). This collaboration combines existing UNL educational learning resources and infrastructure in virtual coursework. It will supply global climate change education and locally-based research experiences to the highly diverse undergraduate students of Brooklyn and Lehman Colleges and to middle and high school teachers in NYC. Through the university partnership, UNL materials are being adapted and augmented to include authentic research experiences for undergraduates and teachers using NASA satellite data, geographic information system (GIS) tools, and/or locally collected microclimate data from urban gardens. Learners download NASA data, apply an Earth system approach, and employ GIS in the analysis of food production landscapes in a dynamically changing climate system. The resulting course will be offered via Blackboard courseware, supported by Web 2.0 technologies designed specifically to support dialogue, data, and web publication sharing between partners, teachers and middle school, high school and undergraduate student researchers. NYC is in the center of the urban farming movement. By exploring water and food topics of direct relevance to students' lives and community, we anticipate that students will be motivated and more empowered to make connections between climate change and potential impacts on the health and happiness of people in their community, in the United States and around the world. Final course will be piloted in 2012.

  18. Globalization quickly increased need for moving from local to international standards

    Cappelli, Cataldo

    2005-07-01

    'Standardization' quickly changed in the past few years, due to the market's globalization that needs international standards as important instruments in eliminating technical barriers to trade. The 'Petroleum Sector' chose moving to international standards jointly processed by the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) and the American Petroleum Institute (API) that played the role of historical reference. Taking into account that oil industry wants only one Standard worldwide used, also Europe decided for adopting these ISO Standards as European Standards. The result is much better considering that also Russia and China seem to adopt these ISO documents as their national standards. It is so becoming much more significant the 'motto' that ISO TC 67 'Materials, equipment and offshore structures for petroleum, petrochemical and natural gas industries' adopted for its standardization activities: 'Do it once, do it right, do it internationally'. Examples of such international Standards worldwide used as National Standards are: ISO 11960:2004 - 'Steel pipes for use as casing or tubing for wells' and; ISO/DIS 3183 - 'Steel pipe for pipeline transportation systems' (under preparation). Standardization has so grown from technical to management tool and countries are also moving, including standards in more areas of its legislations. (author)

  19. Global Mental Health: A Call for Increased Awareness and Action for Family Therapists.

    Patterson, Jo Ellen; Edwards, Todd M; Vakili, Susanna

    2018-03-01

    Global mental health (GMH) is an emerging field that focuses on the need for culturally sensitive mental health services in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). While many new initiatives have been established worldwide to understand GMH needs and to provide care in LMICs, family therapists have primarily worked with families in high-income countries. The few existing family-based initiatives in GMH focus on psychoeducation and are typically not based on general systems theory. However, emerging trends in family therapy may enable family therapists to impact mental health issues in LMICs. These trends, which are shared interests of both family therapy and GMH, include collaborative care, a growing emphasis on the importance of culture in understanding and treating mental health issues, recognition of the ability of families to support or impede recovery from mental illness, and the use of strength-based and evidence-based treatments. This paper describes ways for family therapists to become active in the GMH community. © 2017 Family Process Institute.

  20. The increasing globalization of health librarianship: a brief survey of international trends and activities.

    Madge, Bruce; Plutchak, T Scott

    2005-09-01

    Throughout his career, Leslie Morton was interested in international developments in health librarianship. In memory of the work he did in this field, the authors examine current developments in international health librarianship and describe some current themes. The authors draw from their combined experience in international activities and the published information available from selected library associations and related organizations. Although many of the major health library associations around the world are tackling agendas specific to their own country, issues of international concern are emerging in common. These are grouped around globalization, partnerships and co-operation, electronic access, especially open access, and working with the developing world in a number of different ways. Of course, the basis of all of these initiatives is to improve the health of the population by providing the best possible access to materials. Professional associations can provide a useful institutional infrastructure for addressing issues of international interest. Librarians should encourage their associations to develop these international initiatives and to seek out new and innovative ways to work together across international boundaries.

  1. Global Ocean Evaporation Increases Since 1960 in Climate Reanalyses: How Accurate Are They?

    Robertson, Franklin R.; Roberts, Jason B.; Bosilovich, Michael G.

    2016-01-01

    AGCMs w/ Specified SSTs (AMIPs) GEOS-5, ERA-20CM Ensembles Incorporate best historical estimates of SST, sea ice, radiative forcing Atmospheric "weather noise" is inconsistent with specified SST. Instantaneous Sfc fluxes can be wrong sign (e.g. Indian Ocean Monsoon, high latitude oceans). Averaging over ensemble members helps isolate SST-forced signal. Reduced Observational Reanalyses: NOAA 20CR V2C, ERA-20C, JRA-55C Incorporate observed Sfc Press (20CR), Marine Winds (ERA-20C) and rawinsondes (JRA-55C) to recover much of true synoptic or weather w/o shock of new sat obs. Comprehensive Reanalyses (MERRA-2) Full suite of observational constraints- both conventional and remote sensing. But... substantial uncertainties owing to evolving satellite observing system. Multi-source Statistically Blended OAFlux, LargeYeager Blend reanalysis, satellite, and ocean buoy information. While climatological biases are removed, non-physical trends or variations in components remain. Satellite Retrievals GSSTF3, SeaFlux, HOAPS3... Global coverage. Retrieved near sfc wind speed, & humidity used with SST to drive accurate bulk aerodynamic flux estimates. Satellite inter-calibration, spacecraft pointing variations crucial. Short record ( late 1987-present). In situ Measurements ICOADS, IVAD, Res Cruises VOS and buoys offer direct measurements. Sparse data coverage (esp south of 30S. Changes in measurement techniques (e.g. shipboard anemometer height).

  2. Magnified Sediment Export of Small Mountainous Rivers in Taiwan: Chain Reactions from Increased Rainfall Intensity under Global Warming.

    Lee, Tsung-Yu; Huang, Jr-Chuan; Lee, Jun-Yi; Jien, Shih-Hao; Zehetner, Franz; Kao, Shuh-Ji

    2015-01-01

    Fluvial sediment export from small mountainous rivers in Oceania has global biogeochemical significance affecting the turnover rate and export of terrestrial carbon, which might be speeding up at the recognized conditions of increased rainfall intensity. In this study, the historical runoff and sediment export from 16 major rivers in Taiwan are investigated and separated into an early stage (1970-1989) and a recent stage (1990-2010) to illustrate the changes of both runoff and sediment export. The mean daily sediment export from Taiwan Island in the recent stage significantly increased by >80% with subtle increase in daily runoff, indicating more sediment being delivered to the ocean per unit of runoff in the recent stage. The medians of the runoff depth and sediment yield extremes (99.0-99.9 percentiles) among the 16 rivers increased by 6.5%-37% and 62%-94%, respectively, reflecting the disproportionately magnified response of sediment export to the increased runoff. Taiwan is facing increasing event rainfall intensity which has resulted in chain reactions on magnified runoff and sediment export responses. As the globe is warming, rainfall extremes, which are proved to be temperature-dependent, very likely intensify runoff and trigger more sediment associated hazards. Such impacts might occur globally because significant increases of high-intensity precipitation have been observed not only in Taiwan but over most land areas of the globe.

  3. Mortality attributable to pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 in San Luis Potosí, Mexico

    Comas‐García, Andreu; García‐Sepúlveda, Christian A.; Méndez‐de Lira, José J.; Aranda‐Romo, Saray; Hernández‐Salinas, Alba E.; Noyola, Daniel E.

    2010-01-01

    Please cite this paper as: Comas‐García et al. (2011) Mortality attributable to pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 in San Luis Potosí, Mexico. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 5(2), 76–82. Background  Acute respiratory infections are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Starting in 2009, pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 virus has become one of the leading respiratory pathogens worldwide. However, the overall impact of this virus as a cause of mortality has not been clearly defined. Objectives  To determine the impact of pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 on mortality in a Mexican population. Methods  We assessed the impact of pandemic influenza virus on mortality during the first and second outbreaks in San Luis Potosí, Mexico, and compared it to mortality associated with seasonal influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) during the previous winter seasons. Results  We estimated that, on average, 8·1% of all deaths that occurred during the 2003–2009 seasons were attributable to influenza and RSV. During the first pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 outbreak, there was an increase in mortality in persons 5–59 years of age, but not during the second outbreak (Fall of 2009). Overall, pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 outbreaks had similar effects on mortality to those associated with seasonal influenza virus epidemics. Conclusions  The impact of influenza A(H1N1) 2009 virus on mortality during the first year of the pandemic was similar to that observed for seasonal influenza. The establishment of real‐time surveillance systems capable of integrating virological, morbidity, and mortality data may result in the timely identification of outbreaks so as to allow for the institution of appropriate control measures to reduce the impact of emerging pathogens on the population. PMID:21306570

  4. Photosynthetic response to globally increasing CO2 of co-occurring temperate seagrass species.

    Borum, Jens; Pedersen, Ole; Kotula, Lukasz; Fraser, Matthew W; Statton, John; Colmer, Timothy D; Kendrick, Gary A

    2016-06-01

    Photosynthesis of most seagrass species seems to be limited by present concentrations of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). Therefore, the ongoing increase in atmospheric CO2 could enhance seagrass photosynthesis and internal O2 supply, and potentially change species competition through differential responses to increasing CO2 availability among species. We used short-term photosynthetic responses of nine seagrass species from the south-west of Australia to test species-specific responses to enhanced CO2 and changes in HCO3 (-) . Net photosynthesis of all species except Zostera polychlamys were limited at pre-industrial compared to saturating CO2 levels at light saturation, suggesting that enhanced CO2 availability will enhance seagrass performance. Seven out of the nine species were efficient HCO3 (-) users through acidification of diffusive boundary layers, production of extracellular carbonic anhydrase, or uptake and internal conversion of HCO3 (-) . Species responded differently to near saturating CO2 implying that increasing atmospheric CO2 may change competition among seagrass species if co-occurring in mixed beds. Increasing CO2 availability also enhanced internal aeration in the one species assessed. We expect that future increases in atmospheric CO2 will have the strongest impact on seagrass recruits and sparsely vegetated beds, because densely vegetated seagrass beds are most often limited by light and not by inorganic carbon. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Characterizing the epidemiology of the 2009 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic in Mexico.

    Gerardo Chowell

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Mexico's local and national authorities initiated an intense public health response during the early stages of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic. In this study we analyzed the epidemiological patterns of the pandemic during April-December 2009 in Mexico and evaluated the impact of nonmedical interventions, school cycles, and demographic factors on influenza transmission. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used influenza surveillance data compiled by the Mexican Institute for Social Security, representing 40% of the population, to study patterns in influenza-like illness (ILIs hospitalizations, deaths, and case-fatality rate by pandemic wave and geographical region. We also estimated the reproduction number (R on the basis of the growth rate of daily cases, and used a transmission model to evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation strategies initiated during the spring pandemic wave. A total of 117,626 ILI cases were identified during April-December 2009, of which 30.6% were tested for influenza, and 23.3% were positive for the influenza A/H1N1 pandemic virus. A three-wave pandemic profile was identified, with an initial wave in April-May (Mexico City area, a second wave in June-July (southeastern states, and a geographically widespread third wave in August-December. The median age of laboratory confirmed ILI cases was ∼ 18 years overall and increased to ∼ 31 years during autumn (p<0.0001. The case-fatality ratio among ILI cases was 1.2% overall, and highest (5.5% among people over 60 years. The regional R estimates were 1.8-2.1, 1.6-1.9, and 1.2-1.3 for the spring, summer, and fall waves, respectively. We estimate that the 18-day period of mandatory school closures and other social distancing measures implemented in the greater Mexico City area was associated with a 29%-37% reduction in influenza transmission in spring 2009. In addition, an increase in R was observed in late May and early June in the southeast states, after mandatory school

  6. Toward a collaborative model of pandemic preparedness and response: Taiwan's changing approach to pandemics

    Jonathan Schwartz

    2017-04-01

    Conclusion: The Taiwan case provides evidence that by implementing the whole-of-society approach to pandemic preparedness and response governments can enhance their ability to manage future outbreaks. We recommend that governments beyond Taiwan's borders seriously consider adopting this approach.

  7. Will the community nurse continue to function during H1N1 influenza pandemic: a cross-sectional study of Hong Kong community nurses?

    Wong, Eliza L Y; Wong, Samuel Y S; Kung, Kenny; Cheung, Annie W L; Gao, Tiffany T; Griffiths, Sian

    2010-04-30

    Healthcare workers have been identified as one of the high risk groups for being infected with influenza during influenza pandemic. Potential levels of absenteeism among healthcare workers in hospital settings are high. However, there was no study to explore the attitudes of healthcare workers in community setting towards the preparedness to the novel H1N1 influenza pandemic. The aim of this study was to explore the willingness of community nurses in Hong Kong to work during H1N1 influenza pandemic. A cross-sectional survey was conducted among all 401 community nurses employed by the Hospital Authority in Hong Kong when the WHO pandemic alert level was 6. The response rate of this study was 66.6%. 76.9% participants reported being "not willing" (33.3%) or "not sure" (43.6%) to take care of patients during H1N1 influenza pandemic. The self-reported reasons for being unwilling to report to duty during H1N1 influenza pandemic were psychological stress (55.0%) and fear of being infected H1N1 influenza (29.2%). The reported unwillingness to report to duty was marginally significantly associated with the request for further training of using infection control clinical guideline (OR: 0.057; CI: 0.25-1.02). Those who reported unwillingness or not being sure about taking care of the patients during H1N1 influenza pandemic were more depressed (p work more emotionally stressful (p < 0.001). Interventions to provide infection control training and address community nurses' psychological needs might increase their willingness to provide care to patients in the community during H1N1 influenza pandemic. This would help to ensure an effective and appropriate health system response during the H1N1 influenza pandemic.

  8. Will the community nurse continue to function during H1N1 influenza pandemic: a cross-sectional study of Hong Kong community nurses?

    Gao Tiffany T

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Healthcare workers have been identified as one of the high risk groups for being infected with influenza during influenza pandemic. Potential levels of absenteeism among healthcare workers in hospital settings are high. However, there was no study to explore the attitudes of healthcare workers in community setting towards the preparedness to the novel H1N1 influenza pandemic. The aim of this study was to explore the willingness of community nurses in Hong Kong to work during H1N1 influenza pandemic. Methods A cross-sectional survey was conducted among all 401 community nurses employed by the Hospital Authority in Hong Kong when the WHO pandemic alert level was 6. Results The response rate of this study was 66.6%. 76.9% participants reported being "not willing" (33.3% or "not sure" (43.6% to take care of patients during H1N1 influenza pandemic. The self-reported reasons for being unwilling to report to duty during H1N1 influenza pandemic were psychological stress (55.0% and fear of being infected H1N1 influenza (29.2%. The reported unwillingness to report to duty was marginally significantly associated with the request for further training of using infection control clinical guideline (OR: 0.057; CI: 0.25-1.02. Those who reported unwillingness or not being sure about taking care of the patients during H1N1 influenza pandemic were more depressed (p Conclusions Interventions to provide infection control training and address community nurses' psychological needs might increase their willingness to provide care to patients in the community during H1N1 influenza pandemic. This would help to ensure an effective and appropriate health system response during the H1N1 influenza pandemic.

  9. The Military Response to Pandemic: The New Global Threat

    2009-01-28

    creeping things and birds of the air, for I am sorry that I have made them.’ —Genesis 6, 71 In the last years, the appearance of incurable diseases...these diseases came from other species, smallpox probably from dogs and cattle , tuberculosis from cattle and birds, AIDS probably from African...biological levels there is astounding parallel between the visible world of the “macrobes”, where some animals feed themselves with others, and the

  10. Distribution of selected healthcare resources for influenza pandemic response in Cambodia.

    Schwanke Khilji, Sara U; Rudge, James W; Drake, Tom; Chavez, Irwin; Borin, Khieu; Touch, Sok; Coker, Richard

    2013-10-04

    Human influenza infection poses a serious public health threat in Cambodia, a country at risk for the emergence and spread of novel influenza viruses with pandemic potential. Prior pandemics demonstrated the adverse impact of influenza on poor communities in developing countries. Investigation of healthcare resource distribution can inform decisions regarding resource mobilization and investment for pandemic mitigation. A health facility survey performed across Cambodia obtained data on availability of healthcare resources important for pandemic influenza response. Focusing on five key resources considered most necessary for treating severe influenza (inpatient beds, doctors, nurses, oseltamivir, and ventilators), resource distributions were analyzed at the Operational District (OD) and Province levels, refining data analysis from earlier studies. Resources were stratified by respondent type (hospital vs. District Health Office [DHO]). A summary index of distribution inequality was calculated using the Gini coefficient. Indices for local spatial autocorrelation were measured at the OD level using geographical information system (GIS) analysis. Finally, a potential link between socioeconomic status and resource distribution was explored by mapping resource densities against poverty rates. Gini coefficient calculation revealed variable inequality in distribution of the five key resources at the Province and OD levels. A greater percentage of the population resides in areas of relative under-supply (28.5%) than over-supply (21.3%). Areas with more resources per capita showed significant clustering in central Cambodia while areas with fewer resources clustered in the northern and western provinces. Hospital-based inpatient beds, doctors, and nurses were most heavily concentrated in areas of the country with the lowest poverty rates; however, beds and nurses in Non-Hospital Medical Facilities (NHMF) showed increasing concentrations at higher levels of poverty. There is

  11. Going Global: The Economic and Geopolitical Effect of China’s Increasing Outward Foreign Direct Investment

    2013-03-01

    Sinopec to partner with a Malaysian oil company to undercut a Chinese National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) bid by over $60 million. Sinopec not only...invested abroad, states will enact taxation polices, trade barriers, and other measures that favor their increase in relative power.131 In summation, if

  12. Evaluation results of the GlobalWatershed GK-12 Fellowship Program - a model for increased science literacy and partnership

    Mayer, A. S.; Vye, E.

    2016-12-01

    The Michigan Tech GlobalWatershed GK-12 Fellowship program bridges the gap between K-12 learning institutions and the scientific community with a focus on watershed research. Michigan Tech graduate students (fellows) work in tandem with teachers on the development of relevant hands-on, inquiry based lesson plans and activities based on their doctoral research projects in watershed science. By connecting students and teachers to state of the art academic research in watershed science, teachers are afforded a meaningful way in which to embed scientific research as a component of K-12 curricula, while mentoring fellows on the most pertinent and essential topics for lesson plan development. Fellows fulfill their vital responsibility of communicating their academic research to a broader public while fostering improved teaching and communication skills. A goal of the project is to increase science literacy among students so they may understand, communicate and participate in decisions made at local, regional, and global levels. The project largely works with schools located in Michigan's western Upper Peninsula but also partners with K-12 systems in Sonora, Mexico. While focusing on local and regional issues, the international element of the project helps expand student, teacher, and fellow worldviews and global awareness of watershed issues and creates meaningful partnerships. Lesson plans are available online and teacher workshops are held regularly to disseminate the wealth of information and resources available to the broader public. Evaluation results indicate that fellows' skill and confidence in their ability to communicate science increased as a results of their participation of the program, as well as their desire to communicate science in their future careers. Teachers' confidence in their capacity to present watershed science to their students increased, along with their understanding of how scientific research contributes to understanding of water

  13. Epidemiological characteristics of Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1 ...

    Background: A novel influenza A virus strain (H1N1-2009) spread first in Mexico and the United Stated in late April 2009, leading to the first influenza pandemic of the 21st century. The objective of this study was to determine the epidemiological and virological characteristics of the pandemic influenza A (H1N1-2009) in ...

  14. Including the public in pandemic planning: a deliberative approach

    Braunack-Mayer Annette J

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Against a background of pandemic threat posed by SARS and avian H5N1 influenza, this study used deliberative forums to elucidate informed community perspectives on aspects of pandemic planning. Methods Two deliberative forums were carried out with members of the South Australian community. The forums were supported by a qualitative study with adults and youths, systematic reviews of the literature and the involvement of an extended group of academic experts and policy makers. The forum discussions were recorded with simultaneous transcription and analysed thematically. Results Participants allocated scarce resources of antiviral drugs and pandemic vaccine based on a desire to preserve society function in a time of crisis. Participants were divided on the acceptability of social distancing and quarantine measures. However, should such measures be adopted, they thought that reasonable financial, household and psychological support was essential. In addition, provided such support was present, the participants, in general, were willing to impose strict sanctions on those who violated quarantine and social distancing measures. Conclusions The recommendations from the forums suggest that the implementation of pandemic plans in a severe pandemic will be challenging, but not impossible. Implementation may be more successful if the public is engaged in pandemic planning before a pandemic, effective communication of key points is practiced before and during a pandemic and if judicious use is made of supportive measures to assist those in quarantine or affected by social isolation measures.

  15. Strategies for Fighting Pandemic Flu in Developing Countries

    Countries throughout the world are preparing for the next influenza pandemic. Developing countries face special challenges because they don't have antiviral drugs or vaccines that more developed countries have. In this podcast, CDC's Dr. Dan Jernigan discusses new and innovative approaches that may help developing countries fight pandemic flu when it emerges.

  16. Epidemiological characteristics of Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1 ...

    ... novel influenza A virus strain (H1N1-2009) spread first in Mexico and the United Stated in late April 2009, leading to the first influenza pandemic of the 21st century. The objective of this study was to determine the epidemiological and virological characteristics of the pandemic influenza A (H1N1-2009) in Zhanjiang, China ...

  17. Zika threatens to become a huge worldwide pandemic

    Alcides Troncoso

    2016-01-01

    The Aedes aegypti mosquito which transmits Zika virus (as well as dengue, chikungunya and yellow fever) represents a high risk for global transmission. This virus comes from Africa, the Zika forest in Uganda, where it was discovered in 1947 in a rhesus monkey. In May 2015, the first local cases were recorded in Brazil, surpassing 1.5 million cases in December of the same year. By March 2016, local transmission of Zika was recognized in 34 countries. Its clinical condition is similar to dengue febrile illness, although milder. The final geographical distribution area is constantly expanding. Recently, it has been associated with cases of Guillain-Barr ´e syndrome in Brazil, Colombia, El Salvador, Venezuela and Suriname. Microcephaly was documented in Brazil. This article discusses some factors that contributed to the spread of Zika virus in South America. Climate change associated with the events of the phenomenon of“El Niño”is also analyzed. The biggest concern is how quickly Zika is spreading around the world and that it could be far more dangerous than previously thought. Zika virus infection, by its explosive potential, has every chance of becoming a global pandemic.

  18. Zika threatens to become a huge worldwide pandemic

    Alcides Troncoso

    2016-01-01

    The Aedes aegypti mosquito which transmits Zika virus(as well as dengue, chikungunya and yellow fever) represents a high risk for global transmission. This virus comes from Africa, the Zika forest in Uganda, where it was discovered in 1947 in a rhesus monkey. In May 2015, the first local cases were recorded in Brazil, surpassing 1.5 million cases in December of the same year. By March 2016, local transmission of Zika was recognized in 34 countries. Its clinical condition is similar to dengue febrile illness, although milder.The final geographical distribution area is constantly expanding. Recently, it has been associated with cases of Guillain-Barre′ syndrome in Brazil, Colombia, El Salvador,Venezuela and Suriname. Microcephaly was documented in Brazil. This article discusses some factors that contributed to the spread of Zika virus in South America. Climate change associated with the events of the phenomenon of "El Ni?o" is also analyzed. The biggest concern is how quickly Zika is spreading around the world and that it could be far more dangerous than previously thought. Zika virus infection, by its explosive potential,has every chance of becoming a global pandemic.

  19. Zika threatens to become a huge worldwide pandemic

    Alcides Troncoso

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The Aedes aegypti mosquito which transmits Zika virus (as well as dengue, chikungunya and yellow fever represents a high risk for global transmission. This virus comes from Africa, the Zika forest in Uganda, where it was discovered in 1947 in a rhesus monkey. In May 2015, the first local cases were recorded in Brazil, surpassing 1.5 million cases in December of the same year. By March 2016, local transmission of Zika was recognized in 34 countries. Its clinical condition is similar to dengue febrile illness, although milder. The final geographical distribution area is constantly expanding. Recently, it has been associated with cases of Guillain-Barré syndrome in Brazil, Colombia, El Salvador, Venezuela and Suriname. Microcephaly was documented in Brazil. This article discusses some factors that contributed to the spread of Zika virus in South America. Climate change associated with the events of the phenomenon of “El Niño” is also analyzed. The biggest concern is how quickly Zika is spreading around the world and that it could be far more dangerous than previously thought. Zika virus infection, by its explosive potential, has every chance of becoming a global pandemic.

  20. Photosynthetic response to globally increasing CO2 of co-occurring temperate seagrass species

    Borum, Jens; Pedersen, Ole; Kotula, Lukasz

    2016-01-01

    Photosynthesis of most seagrass species seems to be limited by present concentrations of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). Therefore, the ongoing increase in atmospheric CO2 could enhance seagrass photosynthesis and internal O2 supply, and potentially change species competition through differential...... responses to increasing CO2 availability among species. We used short-term photosynthetic responses of nine seagrass species from the south-west of Australia to test species-specific responses to enhanced CO2 and changes in HCO3 -. Net photosynthesis of all species except Zostera polychlamys were limited...... at pre-industrial compared to saturating CO2 levels at light saturation, suggesting that enhanced CO2 availability will enhance seagrass performance. Seven out of the nine species were efficient HCO3 - users through acidification of diffusive boundary layers, production of extracellular carbonic...

  1. Increases in myocardial workload induced by rapid atrial pacing trigger alterations in global metabolism.

    Aslan T Turer

    Full Text Available To determine whether increases in cardiac work lead to alterations in the plasma metabolome and whether such changes arise from the heart or peripheral organs.There is growing evidence that the heart influences systemic metabolism through endocrine effects and affecting pathways involved in energy homeostasis.Nineteen patients referred for cardiac catheterization were enrolled. Peripheral and selective coronary sinus (CS blood sampling was performed at serial timepoints following the initiation of pacing, and metabolite profiling was performed by liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS.Pacing-stress resulted in a 225% increase in the median rate·pressure product from baseline. Increased myocardial work induced significant changes in the peripheral concentration of 43 of 125 metabolites assayed, including large changes in purine [adenosine (+99%, p = 0.006, ADP (+42%, p = 0.01, AMP (+79%, p = 0.004, GDP (+69%, p = 0.003, GMP (+58%, p = 0.01, IMP (+50%, p = 0.03, xanthine (+61%, p = 0.0006], and several bile acid metabolites. The CS changes in metabolites qualitatively mirrored those in the peripheral blood in both timing and magnitude, suggesting the heart was not the major source of the metabolite release.Isolated increases in myocardial work can induce changes in the plasma metabolome, but these changes do not appear to be directly cardiac in origin. A number of these dynamic metabolites have known signaling functions. Our study provides additional evidence to a growing body of literature on metabolic 'cross-talk' between the heart and other organs.

  2. Global increases in allergic respiratory disease: the possible role of diesel exhaust particles.

    Peterson, B; Saxon, A

    1996-10-01

    Reading this article will enable the readers to recognize and evaluate i e potential relationship between allergic respiratory disease and polyaromatic hydrocarbons as air pollutants from industrial and automotive fuel sources. In this article we review the long-term trends in the prevalence of allergic airway diseases (rhinitis and asthma). We then examine the epidemiologic and other research data relating to the role that hydrocarbon fuel emissions may have had on allergic respiratory disease. Published literature on the relationship between specific air pollutants and trends in allergic respiratory disease were reviewed. Reports of research on pollutant effects on allergic antibody (IgE) were also studied. In both cases, the Melvyl-Medline database since 1975 was used for literature searches. Older references were identified from the bibliographies of relevant articles and books and with the help of the rare books collection at UCLA's Louis M. Darling Biomedical library. Examination of the historical record indicates that allergic rhinitis and allergic asthma have significantly increased in prevalence over the past two centuries. Although the reasons for this increase are not fully elucidated, epidemiologic data suggest that certain pollutants such as those produced from the burning of fossil fuels may have played an important role in the prevalence changes. Also important are studies showing that diesel exhaust, a prototypical fossil fuel, is able to enhance in vitro and in vivo IgE production. Increased levels of the compounds resulting from fossil fuel combustion may be partly responsible for the increased prevalence of allergic respiratory disease. If the nature of these compounds and the mechanisms by which they exacerbate allergic disease can be identified, steps can be taken to reduce the production or the impact of these allergy producing compounds.

  3. Will building new reservoirs always help increase the water supply reliability? - insight from a modeling-based global study

    Zhuang, Y.; Tian, F.; Yigzaw, W.; Hejazi, M. I.; Li, H. Y.; Turner, S. W. D.; Vernon, C. R.

    2017-12-01

    More and more reservoirs are being build or planned in order to help meet the increasing water demand all over the world. However, is building new reservoirs always helpful to water supply? To address this question, the river routing module of Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) has been extended with a simple yet physical-based reservoir scheme accounting for irrigation, flood control and hydropower operations at each individual reservoir. The new GCAM river routing model has been applied over the global domain with the runoff inputs from the Variable Infiltration Capacity Model. The simulated streamflow is validated at 150 global river basins where the observed streamflow data are available. The model performance has been significantly improved at 77 basins and worsened at 35 basins. To facilitate the analysis of additional reservoir storage impacts at the basin level, a lumped version of GCAM reservoir model has been developed, representing a single lumped reservoir at each river basin which has the regulation capacity of all reservoir combined. A Sequent Peak Analysis is used to estimate how much additional reservoir storage is required to satisfy the current water demand. For basins with water deficit, the water supply reliability can be improved with additional storage. However, there is a threshold storage value at each basin beyond which the reliability stops increasing, suggesting that building new reservoirs will not help better relieve the water stress. Findings in the research can be helpful to the future planning and management of new reservoirs.

  4. Impaired photosynthesis and increased leaf construction costs may induce floral stress during episodes of global warming over macroevolutionary timescales.

    Haworth, Matthew; Belcher, Claire M; Killi, Dilek; Dewhirst, Rebecca A; Materassi, Alessandro; Raschi, Antonio; Centritto, Mauro

    2018-04-18

    Global warming events have coincided with turnover of plant species at intervals in Earth history. As mean global temperatures rise, the number, frequency and duration of heat-waves will increase. Ginkgo biloba was grown under controlled climatic conditions at two different day/night temperature regimes (25/20 °C and 35/30 °C) to investigate the impact of heat stress. Photosynthetic CO 2 -uptake and electron transport were reduced at the higher temperature, while rates of respiration were greater; suggesting that the carbon balance of the leaves was adversely affected. Stomatal conductance and the potential for evaporative cooling of the leaves was reduced at the higher temperature. Furthermore, the capacity of the leaves to dissipate excess energy was also reduced at 35/30 °C, indicating that photo-protective mechanisms were no longer functioning effectively. Leaf economics were adversely affected by heat stress, exhibiting an increase in leaf mass per area and leaf construction costs. This may be consistent with the selective pressures experienced by fossil Ginkgoales during intervals of global warming such as the Triassic - Jurassic boundary or Early Eocene Climatic Optimum. The physiological and morphological responses of the G. biloba leaves were closely interrelated; these relationships may be used to infer the leaf economics and photosynthetic/stress physiology of fossil plants.

  5. H1N1 pandemic preparedness and business continuity plan

    NONE

    2009-10-15

    SaskPower's H1N1 pandemic preparedness and business continuity plan was designed to prepare SaskPower employees for elevated levels of absenteeism during a potential pandemic. Emergency management and business continuity will be facilitated if critical duties and essential services are maintained without interruption. A layered approach was used to develop a range of response measures designed to meet a range of possible pandemic threats. The plan identified essential activities, tasks and functions and outlined methods of mitigating supply disruptions and possible shortages. Methods of minimizing illness in employees were discussed, as well as methods of maintaining a safe and secure work environment. The measures were developed in accordance with the World Health Organization (WHO) 6 phases of pandemic alert. The plan was also designed to be read by SaskPower's key suppliers in order to ensure their pandemic readiness. 5 tabs.

  6. [History of pandemic influenza in Japan].

    Matsumoto, Keizo

    2010-09-01

    In Japan, influenza like epidemics were described many times since Heian era. However, Spanish flu as the modern medicine invaded Japan in 1918, thus almost infected 390,000 patients died with associated pneumonia. After the discovery of influenza virus in 1933, Japan experienced pandemic influenza--Asian flu(H2N2) in 1957. After about 10 years, Hong Kong flu (H3N2) came to Japan at 1968. However, we had many reliable antibiotics but had not any antiviral drug at the early time. After year 2000, we fortunately obtained reliable three antiviral drugs such as amantadine, oseltamivir and zanamivir. Moreover, very useful rapid test kits for influenza A and B viruses were developed and used in Japan. 2009 H1N1 influenza epidemic occured in Japan after the great epidemic in Mexico and North America but elderly patient was few. With together, host conditions regarding with high risk are changing. Lessons from past several pandemic influenza are those that many issues for changing high risk conditions, viral genetic changes, developing antiviral agents, developing new useful vaccins and determinating bacterial secondary pathogens are important.

  7. Facing the threat of influenza pandemic - roles of and implications to general practitioners

    Lee Albert

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The 2009 pandemic of H1N1 influenza, compounded with seasonal influenza, posed a global challenge. Despite the announcement of post-pandemic period on 10 August 2010 by theWHO, H1N1 (2009 virus would continue to circulate as a seasonal virus for some years and national health authorities should remain vigilant due to unpredictable behaviour of the virus. Majority of the world population is living in countries with inadequate resources to purchase vaccines and stockpile antiviral drugs. Basic hygienic measures such as wearing face masks and the hygienic practice of hand washing could reduce the spread of the respiratory viruses. However, the imminent issue is translating these measures into day-to-day practice. The experience from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS in Hong Kong has shown that general practitioners (GPs were willing to discharge their duties despite risks of getting infected themselves. SARS event has highlighted the inadequate interface between primary and secondary care and valuable health care resources were thus inappropriately matched to community needs. There are various ways for GPs to contribute in combating the influenza pandemic. They are prompt in detecting and monitoring epidemics and mini-epidemics of viral illnesses in the community. They can empower and raise the health literacy of the community such as advocating personal hygiene and other precautious measures. GPs could also assist in the development of protocols for primary care management of patients with flu-like illnesses and conduct clinical audits on the standards of preventive and treatment measures. GPs with adequate liaison with public health agencies would facilitate early diagnosis of patients with influenza. In this article, we summarise the primary care actions for phases 4-6 of the pandemic. We shall discuss the novel roles of GPs as alternative source of health care for patients who would otherwise be cared for in the secondary care

  8. Global climate change increases risk of crop yield losses and food insecurity in the tropical Andes.

    Tito, Richard; Vasconcelos, Heraldo L; Feeley, Kenneth J

    2018-02-01

    One of the greatest current challenges to human society is ensuring adequate food production and security for a rapidly growing population under changing climatic conditions. Climate change, and specifically rising temperatures, will alter the suitability of areas for specific crops and cultivation systems. In order to maintain yields, farmers may be forced to change cultivation practices, the timing of cultivation, or even the type of crops grown. Alternatively, farmers can change the location where crops are cultivated (e.g., to higher elevations) to track suitable climates (in which case the plants will have to grow in different soils), as cultivated plants will otherwise have to tolerate warmer temperatures and possibly face novel enemies. We simulated these two last possible scenarios (for temperature increases of 1.3°C and 2.6°C) in the Peruvian Andes through a field experiment in which several traditionally grown varieties of potato and maize were planted at different elevations (and thus temperatures) using either the local soil or soil translocated from higher elevations. Maize production declined by 21%-29% in response to new soil conditions. The production of maize and potatoes declined by >87% when plants were grown under warmer temperatures, mainly as a result of the greater incidence of novel pests. Crop quality and value also declined under simulated migration and warming scenarios. We estimated that local farmers may experience severe economic losses of up to 2,300 US$ ha -1  yr -1 . These findings reveal that climate change is a real and imminent threat to agriculture and that there is a pressing need to develop effective management strategies to reduce yield losses and prevent food insecurity. Importantly, such strategies should take into account the influences of non-climatic and/or biotic factors (e.g., novel pests) on plant development. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Military and Military Medical Support in Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI/H5N1) Pandemic Scenario

    Taleski, V.

    2007-01-01

    Avian influenza (Bird flu) is a highly contagious viral disease affecting mainly chickens, turkeys, ducks, other birds and mammals. Reservoirs for HPAI /H5N1 virus are shore birds and waterfowl (asymptomatic, excrete virus in feces for a long periods of time), live bird markets and commercial swine facilities. Virus tends to cycle between pigs and birds. HPAI (H5N1) virus is on every 'top ten' list available for potential agricultural bio-weapon agents. The threat of a HPAI/H5N1 pandemic is a definitively global phenomenon and the response must be global. A number of National plans led to various measures of preventing and dealing with epidemics/pandemics. Lessons learned form the pandemic history indicated essential role of military and military medical support to civil authorities in a crisis situation. Based on International Military Medical Avian Influenza Pandemic workshop (Vienna 2006), an expected scenario would involve 30-50% outpatients, 20-30% hospital admission, 2-3% deaths, 10-20% complicated cases. Activities of civil hospital may be reduced by 50%. Benefits of military support could be in: Transportation of patients (primarily by air); Mass vaccination and provision of all other preventive measures (masks, Tamiflu); Restriction of movements; Infection control of health care facilities; Field hospitals for triage and quarantine, military barracks to treat milder cases and military hospitals for severe cases; Deal with corpses; Stockpiling (vaccines, antiviral, antibiotics, protective equipment, supplies); Training; Laboratories; Ensure public safety, etc. With the aim of minimizing the risk of a pandemic spread by means of rapid and uncomplicated cooperation, an early warning system has to be established to improve surveillance, improve international contacts (WHO, ECDC, CDC), establish Platform for sharing information, close contacts of national and international military and civilian surveillance networks and databases, cooperation between military

  10. Understanding why the volume of suboxic waters does not increase over centuries of global warming in an Earth System Model

    A. Gnanadesikan; J. P. Dunne; J. John

    2012-01-01

    Global warming is expected to reduce oxygen solubility and vertical exchange in the ocean, changes which would be expected to result in an increase in the volume of hypoxic waters. A simulation made with a full Earth System model with dynamical atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and biogeochemical cycling (the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's Earth System Model 2.1) shows that this holds true if the condition for hypoxia is set relatively high. However, the volume of the most hypoxic (i.e., su...

  11. [Paleopathology and the history of medicine: the example of influenza pandemics].

    Fangerau, H

    2010-11-01

    The paper examines the history of former influenza pandemics from the perspective of changing nosographic categories. Special emphasis is put on the so-called Spanish flu of 1918. Due to its high mortality rates this pandemic is often highlighted as a warning sign for what may happen during a future pandemic. After a short introduction into the problematic status of the validity of retrospective diagnoses the history of influenza pandemics is discussed. The pandemic of 1918 is analysed from the perspective of the public health system being connected to and relying on medical and scientific debates. The reasons for this pandemic's rank as the long forgotten pandemic are discussed.

  12. Forced treadmill exercise can induce stress and increase neuronal damage in a mouse model of global cerebral ischemia

    Martina Svensson

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Physical exercise is known to be a beneficial factor by increasing the cellular stress tolerance. In ischemic stroke, physical exercise is suggested to both limit the brain injury and facilitate behavioral recovery. In this study we investigated the effect of physical exercise on brain damage following global cerebral ischemia in mice. We aimed to study the effects of 4.5 weeks of forced treadmill running prior to ischemia on neuronal damage, neuroinflammation and its effect on general stress by measuring corticosterone in feces. We subjected C57bl/6 mice (n = 63 to either treadmill running or a sedentary program prior to induction of global ischemia. Anxious, depressive, and cognitive behaviors were analyzed. Stress levels were analyzed using a corticosterone ELISA. Inflammatory and neurological outcomes were analyzed using immunohistochemistry, multiplex electrochemoluminescence ELISA and Western blot. To our surprise, we found that forced treadmill running induced a stress response, with increased anxiety in the Open Field test and increased levels of corticosterone. In accordance, mice subjected to forced exercise prior to ischemia developed larger neuronal damage in the hippocampus and showed higher cytokine levels in the brain and blood compared to non-exercised mice. The extent of neuronal damage correlated with increased corticosterone levels. To compare forced treadmill with voluntary wheel running, we used a different set of mice that exercised freely on running wheels. These mice did not show any anxiety or increased corticosterone levels. Altogether, our results indicate that exercise pre-conditioning may not be beneficial if the animals are forced to run as it can induce a detrimental stress response.

  13. Pandemic influenza and health system resource gaps in Bali: an analysis through a resource transmission dynamics model.

    Adisasmito, Wiku; Hunter, Benjamin M; Krumkamp, Ralf; Latief, Kamal; Rudge, James W; Hanvoravongchai, Piya; Coker, Richard J

    2015-03-01

    The failure to contain pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 in Mexico has shifted global attention from containment to mitigation. Limited surveillance and reporting have, however, prevented detailed assessment of mitigation during the pandemic, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. To assess pandemic influenza case management capabilities in a resource-limited setting, the authors used a health system questionnaire and density-dependent, deterministic transmission model for Bali, Indonesia, determining resource gaps. The majority of health resources were focused in and around the provincial capital, Denpasar; however, gaps are found in every district for nursing staff, surgical masks, and N95 masks. A relatively low pathogenicity pandemic influenza virus would see an overall surplus for physicians, antivirals, and antimicrobials; however, a more pathogenic virus would lead to gaps in every resource except antimicrobials. Resources could be allocated more evenly across Bali. These, however, are in short supply universally and therefore redistribution would not fill resource gaps. © 2011 APJPH.

  14. The Increasing Trend in Global Ranking of Websites of Iranian Medical Universities during January 2012-2015.

    Ramezan Ghorbani, Nahid; Fakour, Yousef; Nojoumi, Seyed Ali

    2017-08-01

    Researchers and academic institutions need assessment and rating to measure their performance. The criteria are designed to evaluate quality and adequacy of research and welcome by most universities as an international process to increase monitoring academic achievements. The study aimed to evaluate the increasing trend in global ranking of Iranian medical universities websites emphasizing on comparative approach. This is a cross-sectional study involving websites of Iranian medical universities. Sampling was conducted by census selecting universities affiliated to the Ministry of Health in webometrics rating system. Web sites of Iranian medical universities were investigated based on the webometrics indicators, global ranking as well as the process of changing their rating. Universities of medical sciences were associated with improved ratings in seven periods from Jan 2012 until Jan 2015. The highest rank was in Jan 2014. Tehran University of Medical Sciences ranked the first in all periods. The highest ratings were about impact factor in universities of medical sciences reflecting the low level of this index in university websites. The least ranking was observed in type 1 universities. Despite the criticisms and weaknesses of these webometrics criteria, they are critical to this equation and should be checked for authenticity and suitability of goals. Therefore, localizing these criteria by the advantages model, ranking systems features, continuous development and medical universities evaluation based on these indicators provide new opportunities for the development of the country especially through online media.

  15. The Pandemic Pendulum: A Critical Analysis of Federal and State Preparedness for a Pandemic Event

    2009-03-01

    of employee illness and absenteeism , coupled with the closely meshed and interdependent systems of trade and commerce.18 WHO also proclaimed it...outbreak of Ebola, a naturally occurring pathogen with no known cure .20 The manifestation of Pandemic Influenza in Indonesia and Ebola in Congo are but...event of significant and sustained absenteeism ? (Transportation) Does the state anticipate need for supplementation of local government

  16. Global warming hiatus contributed to the increased occurrence of intense tropical cyclones in the coastal regions along East Asia.

    Zhao, Jiuwei; Zhan, Ruifen; Wang, Yuqing

    2018-04-16

    The recent global warming hiatus (GWH) was characterized by a La Niña-like cooling in the tropical Eastern Pacific accompanied with the Indian Ocean and the tropical Atlantic Ocean warming. Here we show that the recent GWH contributed significantly to the increased occurrence of intense tropical cyclones in the coastal regions along East Asia since 1998. The GWH associated sea surface temperature anomalies triggered a pair of anomalous cyclonic and anticyclonic circulations and equatorial easterly anomalies over the Northwest Pacific, which favored TC genesis and intensification over the western Northwest Pacific but suppressed TC genesis and intensification over the southeastern Northwest Pacific due to increased vertical wind shear and anticyclonic circulation anomalies. Results from atmospheric general circulation model experiments demonstrate that the Pacific La Niña-like cooling dominated the Indian Ocean and the tropical Atlantic Ocean warming in contributing to the observed GWH-related anomalous atmospheric circulation over the Northwest Pacific.

  17. Stockpiling anti-viral drugs for a pandemic: the role of Manufacturer Reserve Programs.

    Harrington, Joseph E; Hsu, Edbert B

    2010-05-01

    To promote stockpiling of anti-viral drugs by non-government organizations such as hospitals, drug manufacturers have introduced Manufacturer Reserve Programs which, for an annual fee, provide the right to buy in the event of a severe outbreak of influenza. We show that these programs enhance drug manufacturer profits but could either increase or decrease the amount of pre-pandemic stockpiling of anti-viral drugs.

  18. Pandemic influenza: is there a corporate duty to prepare?

    McMenamin, Joseph P

    2009-01-01

    This article considers whether in the wake of an influenza pandemic companies may be exposed to claims of legal liability for failing to provide employees with access to antiviral medications, as the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) now encourages businesses to do. It begins by describing influenza and influenza pandemics. It then discusses the benefits and limitations of antiviral therapies and the recent creation of antiviral option programs. It concludes by considering whether claims may be brought on the theory that corporate leadership is under a duty to prepare for a pandemic by considering whether to provide access to antiviral protection for employees.

  19. [Ethical principles of management and planning during influenza pandemic].

    Kubar', O I; Asatrian, A Zh

    2012-01-01

    The article is dedicated to an actual problem of ethical component inclusion into the system of management and planning of epidemic control measures during threat emergence and in the course of influenza pandemic (epidemic) progress. Data regarding development of international ethical guidelines during influenza including WHO recommendations are presented and analysis of normative documents in Russian Federation is given. A necessity of comprehension and accounting of ethical values in pandemic preparedness is shown, main directions of action and responsibility are revealed. Key ethical positions of planning and implementation of measures during influenza pandemic are outlined, compliance with those determines the level of public support and thus provides the effectiveness of the implemented measures.

  20. Safeguarding against substandard/counterfeit drugs: mitigating a macroeconomic pandemic.

    Wertheimer, Albert I; Norris, Jeremiah

    2009-03-01

    Counterfeiting and the sale of substandard pharmaceutical products can no longer be ignored. At 10% of global trade, counterfeiting is affecting many countries, causing serious downstream expenses and resource shortages. To describe the nature and impact of drug product counterfeiting and substandard product sale and to present strategies that may have value in ameliorating these phenomena. A literature review was conducted, supplemented by interviews of key leaders/experts in the field and the search of relevant web sites. All of the data were combined, integrated, and coordinated to present the complete picture of this problem. In addition to known corruption in some of the least developed countries, the trail through developed countries was detected. This report identifies means to detect faulty products and describes efforts toward resisting and ending these corrupt practices. Counterfeit drugs, if not stopped, can be responsible for a macroeconomic pandemic where major portions of some populations may be too ill to work and where the health sector resources are completely overwhelmed, as with the case of HIV/AIDS.

  1. Emerging viral diseases from a vaccinology perspective: preparing for the next pandemic.

    Graham, Barney S; Sullivan, Nancy J

    2018-01-01

    Emerging infectious diseases will continue to threaten public health and are sustained by global commerce, travel and disruption of ecological systems. Most pandemic threats are caused by viruses from either zoonotic sources or vector-borne sources. Developing better ways to anticipate and manage the ongoing microbial challenge will be critical for achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals and, conversely, each such goal will affect the ability to control infectious diseases. Here we discuss how technology can be applied effectively to better prepare for and respond to new viral diseases with a focus on new paradigms for vaccine development.

  2. Adaptation to and Recovery from Global Catastrophe

    Seth D. Baum

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Global catastrophes, such as nuclear war, pandemics and ecological collapse threaten the sustainability of human civilization. To date, most work on global catastrophes has focused on preventing the catastrophes, neglecting what happens to any catastrophe survivors. To address this gap in the literature, this paper discusses adaptation to and recovery from global catastrophe. The paper begins by discussing the importance of global catastrophe adaptation and recovery, noting that successful adaptation/recovery could have value on even astronomical scales. The paper then discusses how the adaptation/recovery could proceed and makes connections to several lines of research. Research on resilience theory is considered in detail and used to develop a new method for analyzing the environmental and social stressors that global catastrophe survivors would face. This method can help identify options for increasing survivor resilience and promoting successful adaptation and recovery. A key point is that survivors may exist in small isolated communities disconnected from global trade and, thus, must be able to survive and rebuild on their own. Understanding the conditions facing isolated survivors can help promote successful adaptation and recovery. That said, the processes of global catastrophe adaptation and recovery are highly complex and uncertain; further research would be of great value.

  3. Functional Evolution of Influenza Virus NS1 Protein in Currently Circulating Human 2009 Pandemic H1N1 Viruses.

    Clark, Amelia M; Nogales, Aitor; Martinez-Sobrido, Luis; Topham, David J; DeDiego, Marta L

    2017-09-01

    In 2009, a novel H1N1 influenza virus emerged in humans, causing a global pandemic. It was previously shown that the NS1 protein from this human 2009 pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1) virus was an effective interferon (IFN) antagonist but could not inhibit general host gene expression, unlike other NS1 proteins from seasonal human H1N1 and H3N2 viruses. Here we show that the NS1 protein from currently circulating pH1N1 viruses has evolved to encode 6 amino acid changes (E55K, L90I, I123V, E125D, K131E, and N205S) with respect to the original protein. Notably, these 6 residue changes restore the ability of pH1N1 NS1 to inhibit general host gene expression, mainly by their ability to restore binding to the cellular factor CPSF30. This is the first report describing the ability of the pH1N1 NS1 protein to naturally acquire mutations that restore this function. Importantly, a recombinant pH1N1 virus containing these 6 amino acid changes in the NS1 protein (pH1N1/NSs-6mut) inhibited host IFN and proinflammatory responses to a greater extent than that with the parental virus (pH1N1/NS1-wt), yet virus titers were not significantly increased in cell cultures or in mouse lungs, and the disease was partially attenuated. The pH1N1/NSs-6mut virus grew similarly to pH1N1/NSs-wt in mouse lungs, but infection with pH1N1/NSs-6mut induced lower levels of proinflammatory cytokines, likely due to a general inhibition of gene expression mediated by the mutated NS1 protein. This lower level of inflammation induced by the pH1N1/NSs-6mut virus likely accounts for the attenuated disease phenotype and may represent a host-virus adaptation affecting influenza virus pathogenesis. IMPORTANCE Seasonal influenza A viruses (IAVs) are among the most common causes of respiratory infections in humans. In addition, occasional pandemics are caused when IAVs circulating in other species emerge in the human population. In 2009, a swine-origin H1N1 IAV (pH1N1) was transmitted to humans, infecting people then and up

  4. Genetic diversity of the 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1 viruses in Finland.

    Niina Ikonen

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In Finland, the first infections caused by the 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1 virus were identified on May 10. During the next three months almost all infections were found from patients who had recently traveled abroad. In September 2009 the pandemic virus started to spread in the general population, leading to localized outbreaks and peak epidemic activity was reached during weeks 43-48. METHODS/RESULTS: The nucleotide sequences of the hemagglutinin (HA and neuraminidase (NA genes from viruses collected from 138 patients were determined. The analyzed viruses represented mild and severe infections and different geographic regions and time periods. Based on HA and NA gene sequences, the Finnish pandemic viruses clustered in four groups. Finnish epidemic viruses and A/California/07/2009 vaccine virus strain varied from 2-8 and 0-5 amino acids in HA and NA molecules, respectively, giving a respective maximal evolution speed of 1.4% and 1.1%. Most amino acid changes in HA and NA molecules accumulated on the surface of the molecule and were partly located in antigenic sites. Three severe infections were detected with a mutation at HA residue 222, in two viruses with a change D222G, and in one virus D222Y. Also viruses with change D222E were identified. All Finnish pandemic viruses were sensitive to oseltamivir having the amino acid histidine at residue 275 of the neuraminidase molecule. CONCLUSIONS: The Finnish pandemic viruses were quite closely related to A/California/07/2009 vaccine virus. Neither in the HA nor in the NA were changes identified that may lead to the selection of a virus with increased epidemic potential or exceptionally high virulence. Continued laboratory-based surveillance of the 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1 is important in order to rapidly identify drug resistant viruses and/or virus variants with potential ability to cause severe forms of infection and an ability to circumvent vaccine-induced immunity.

  5. Humoral and cell-mediated immunity to pandemic H1N1 influenza in a Canadian cohort one year post-pandemic: implications for vaccination.

    Lisa E Wagar

    Full Text Available We evaluated a cohort of Canadian donors for T cell and antibody responses against influenza A/California/7/2009 (pH1N1 at 8-10 months after the 2nd pandemic wave by flow cytometry and microneutralization assays. Memory CD8 T cell responses to pH1N1 were detectable in 58% (61/105 of donors. These responses were largely due to cross-reactive CD8 T cell epitopes as, for those donors tested, similar recall responses were obtained to A/California 2009 and A/PR8 1934 H1N1 Hviruses. Longitudinal analysis of a single infected individual showed only a small and transient increase in neutralizing antibody levels, but a robust CD8 T cell response that rose rapidly post symptom onset, peaking at 3 weeks, followed by a gradual decline to the baseline levels seen in a seroprevalence cohort post-pandemic. The magnitude of the influenza-specific CD8 T cell memory response at one year post-pandemic was similar in cases and controls as well as in vaccinated and unvaccinated donors, suggesting that any T cell boosting from infection was transient. Pandemic H1-specific antibodies were only detectable in approximately half of vaccinated donors. However, those who were vaccinated within a few months following infection had the highest persisting antibody titers, suggesting that vaccination shortly after influenza infection can boost or sustain antibody levels. For the most part the circulating influenza-specific T cell and serum antibody levels in the population at one year post-pandemic were not different between cases and controls, suggesting that natural infection does not lead to higher long term T cell and antibody responses in donors with pre-existing immunity to influenza. However, based on the responses of one longitudinal donor, it is possible for a small population of pre-existing cross-reactive memory CD8 T cells to expand rapidly following infection and this response may aid in viral clearance and contribute to a lessening of disease severity.

  6. Viral Etiology of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Exacerbations during the A/H1N1pdm09 Pandemic and Postpandemic Period

    Ivan Sanz

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Viral infections are one of the main causes of acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AE-COPD. Emergence of A/H1N1pdm influenza virus in the 2009 pandemic changed the viral etiology of exacerbations that were reported before the pandemic. The aim of this study was to describe the etiology of respiratory viruses in 195 Spanish patients affected by AE-COPD from the pandemic until the 2011-12 influenza epidemic. During the study period (2009–2012, respiratory viruses were identified in 48.7% of samples, and the proportion of viral detections in AE-COPD was higher in patients aged 30–64 years than ≥65 years. Influenza A viruses were the pathogens most often detected during the pandemic and the following two influenza epidemics in contradistinction to human rhino/enteroviruses that were the main viruses causing AE-COPD before the pandemic. The probability of influenza virus detection was 2.78-fold higher in patients who are 30–64 years old than those ≥65. Most respiratory samples were obtained during the pandemic, but the influenza detection rate was higher during the 2011-12 epidemic. There is a need for more accurate AE-COPD diagnosis, emphasizing the role of respiratory viruses. Furthermore, diagnosis requires increased attention to patient age and the characteristics of each influenza epidemic.

  7. Increased evapotranspiration demand in a Mediterranean climate might cause a decline in fungal yields under global warming.

    Ágreda, Teresa; Águeda, Beatriz; Olano, José M; Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M; Fernández-Toirán, Marina

    2015-09-01

    Wild fungi play a critical role in forest ecosystems, and its recollection is a relevant economic activity. Understanding fungal response to climate is necessary in order to predict future fungal production in Mediterranean forests under climate change scenarios. We used a 15-year data set to model the relationship between climate and epigeous fungal abundance and productivity, for mycorrhizal and saprotrophic guilds in a Mediterranean pine forest. The obtained models were used to predict fungal productivity for the 2021-2080 period by means of regional climate change models. Simple models based on early spring temperature and summer-autumn rainfall could provide accurate estimates for fungal abundance and productivity. Models including rainfall and climatic water balance showed similar results and explanatory power for the analyzed 15-year period. However, their predictions for the 2021-2080 period diverged. Rainfall-based models predicted a maintenance of fungal yield, whereas water balance-based models predicted a steady decrease of fungal productivity under a global warming scenario. Under Mediterranean conditions fungi responded to weather conditions in two distinct periods: early spring and late summer-autumn, suggesting a bimodal pattern of growth. Saprotrophic and mycorrhizal fungi showed differences in the climatic control. Increased atmospheric evaporative demand due to global warming might lead to a drop in fungal yields during the 21st century. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Biochar amendment reduces paddy soil nitrogen leaching but increases net global warming potential in Ningxia irrigation, China.

    Wang, Yongsheng; Liu, Yansui; Liu, Ruliang; Zhang, Aiping; Yang, Shiqi; Liu, Hongyuan; Zhou, Yang; Yang, Zhengli

    2017-05-09

    The efficacy of biochar as an environmentally friendly agent for non-point source and climate change mitigation remains uncertain. Our goal was to test the impact of biochar amendment on paddy rice nitrogen (N) uptake, soil N leaching, and soil CH 4 and N 2 O fluxes in northwest China. Biochar was applied at four rates (0, 4.5, 9 and13.5 t ha -1 yr -1 ). Biochar amendment significantly increased rice N uptake, soil total N concentration and the abundance of soil ammonia-oxidizing archaea (AOA), but it significantly reduced the soil NO 3 - -N concentration and soil bulk density. Biochar significantly reduced NO 3 - -N and NH 4 + -N leaching. The C2 and C3 treatments significantly increased the soil CH 4 flux and reduced the soil N 2 O flux, leading to significantly increased net global warming potential (GWP). Soil NO 3 - -N rather than NH 4 + -N was the key integrator of the soil CH 4 and N 2 O fluxes. Our results indicate that a shift in abundance of the AOA community and increased rice N uptake are closely linked to the reduced soil NO 3 - -N concentration under biochar amendment. Furthermore, soil NO 3 - -N availability plays an important role in regulating soil inorganic N leaching and net GWP in rice paddies in northwest China.

  9. Reducing Biosecurity Threats from Infectious Diseases of Pandemic ...

    The emergence of the H7N9 avian influenza virus and the Middle East Respiratory ... develop and implement pandemic preparedness and response policies. ... available to support partnered teams of Canadian and African Ebola researchers.

  10. Public Health Planning for Vulnerable Populations and Pandemic Influenza

    Cameron, Wendy K

    2008-01-01

    This thesis addresses planning for vulnerable populations, those segments of each community that are normally independent but that may require special assistance during a health emergency such as an influenza pandemic...

  11. The threat of pandemic influenza: are we ready? : workshop summary

    Knobler, Stacey

    2005-01-01

    .... Moreover, recent problems with the availability and strain-specificity of vaccine for annual flu epidemics in some countries and the rise of pandemic strains of avian flu in disparate geographic...

  12. Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS): an immune dysregulatory pandemic

    Butler, J. E.; Lager, K.; Golde, W.; Faaberg, K. S.; Šinkora, Marek; Loving, C.; Zhang, Y.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 59, 1-3 (2014), s. 81-108 ISSN 0257-277X Institutional support: RVO:61388971 Keywords : Immune dysregulation * Pandemic * Economic loss Subject RIV: EC - Immunology Impact factor: 3.098, year: 2014

  13. Modeling the worldwide spread of pandemic influenza: baseline case and containment interventions.

    Vittoria Colizza

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza virus, which is now widespread in Southeast Asia and which diffused recently in some areas of the Balkans region and Western Europe, has raised a public alert toward the potential occurrence of a new severe influenza pandemic. Here we study the worldwide spread of a pandemic and its possible containment at a global level taking into account all available information on air travel. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We studied a metapopulation stochastic epidemic model on a global scale that considers airline travel flow data among urban areas. We provided a temporal and spatial evolution of the pandemic with a sensitivity analysis of different levels of infectiousness of the virus and initial outbreak conditions (both geographical and seasonal. For each spreading scenario we provided the timeline and the geographical impact of the pandemic in 3,100 urban areas, located in 220 different countries. We compared the baseline cases with different containment strategies, including travel restrictions and the therapeutic use of antiviral (AV drugs. We investigated the effect of the use of AV drugs in the event that therapeutic protocols can be carried out with maximal coverage for the populations in all countries. In view of the wide diversity of AV stockpiles in different regions of the world, we also studied scenarios in which only a limited number of countries are prepared (i.e., have considerable AV supplies. In particular, we compared different plans in which, on the one hand, only prepared and wealthy countries benefit from large AV resources, with, on the other hand, cooperative containment scenarios in which countries with large AV stockpiles make a small portion of their supplies available worldwide. CONCLUSIONS: We show that the inclusion of air transportation is crucial in the assessment of the occurrence probability of global outbreaks. The large-scale therapeutic usage of AV drugs in all hit

  14. Pandemic vaccination strategies and influenza severe outcomes during the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic and the post-pandemic influenza season

    Gil Cuesta, Julita; Aavitsland, Preben; Englund, Hélène

    2016-01-01

    During the 2009/10 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic, the five Nordic countries adopted different approaches to pandemic vaccination. We compared pandemic vaccination strategies and severe influenza outcomes, in seasons 2009/10 and 2010/11 in these countries with similar influenza surveillance...... systems. We calculated the cumulative pandemic vaccination coverage in 2009/10 and cumulative incidence rates of laboratory confirmed A(H1N1)pdm09 infections, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions and deaths in 2009/10 and 2010/11. We estimated incidence risk ratios (IRR) in a Poisson regression model...... with the other countries. In 2010/11 Denmark had a significantly higher cumulative incidence of A(H1N1)pdm09 ICU admissions (IRR: 2.4; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.9-3.0) and deaths (IRR: 8.3; 95% CI: 5.1-13.5). Compared with Denmark, the other countries had higher pandemic vaccination coverage...

  15. Early Detection of Pandemic (H1N1) 2009, Bangladesh

    Rahman, Mustafizur; Al Mamun, Abdullah; Haider, Mohammad Sabbir; Zaman, Rashid Uz; Karmakar, Polash Chandra; Nasreen, Sharifa; Muneer, Syeda Mah-E; Homaira, Nusrat; Goswami, Doli Rani; Ahmed, Be-Nazir; Husain, Mohammad Mushtuq; Jamil, Khondokar Mahbuba; Khatun, Selina; Ahmed, Mujaddeed; Chakraborty, Apurba; Fry, Alicia; Widdowson, Marc-Alain; Bresee, Joseph; Azim, Tasnim; Alamgir, A.S.M.; Brooks, Abdullah; Hossain, Mohamed Jahangir; Klimov, Alexander; Rahman, Mahmudur; Luby, Stephen P.

    2012-01-01

    To explore Bangladesh’s ability to detect novel influenza, we examined a series of laboratory-confirmed pandemic (H1N1) 2009 cases. During June–July 2009, event-based surveillance identified 30 case-patients (57% travelers); starting July 29, sentinel sites identified 252 case-patients (1% travelers). Surveillance facilitated response weeks before the spread of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 infection to the general population. PMID:22257637

  16. Waves of El Nino-southern Oscillation and Influenza Pandemics

    Olusegun Steven Ayodele Oluwole

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Influenza pandemics have occurred at irregular intervals for over 500 years, unlike seasonal influenza epidemics which occur annually. Although the risk factors are known, the basis for the timing of influenza pandemic waves are unknown. Coherence of peaks of El Niño and influenza pandemic in 2009–2010, however, suggests that both waves are coupled. This study was done to determine the relation of influenza pandemics to the peaks and waveforms of El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO. ENSO cycles from 1871–2015 which had El Niño phases were windowed from Multivariate El Niño Index. Influenza pandemic peaks were mapped to ENSO monthly time series. ENSO waveforms were compared graphically, and fitted to nonstationary cosinor models. Second order polynomial regression model was fitted to the peak and duration of El Niño. Agglomerative hierarchical cluster of ENSO waveforms was performed. All influenza pandemic peaks mapped to El Niño peaks, with lags of 0–5 months. ENSO waveforms during influenza pandemics share parameters of oscillation. Nonstationary cosinor models showed that ENSO cycles are complex waves. There was second order polynomial relationship between peak and duration of El Niños, p < 0.0001. ENSO waveforms clustered into four distinct groups. ENSO waveforms during influenza pandemics of 1889–1900, 1957–1958, and 1968–1969 linked closely. ENSO indices were significantly high from 7–16 months after onset of cycles, p < 0.0001. Surveillance for El Niño events to forecast periods of maximal transmission and survival of influenza A viruses is, therefore, crucial for public health control strategies.

  17. Department of Defense Implementation Plan for Pandemic Influenza

    2006-08-01

    and Low Intensity Conflict (ASD(SO/LIC)) will provide policy oversight of the DoD Pandemic Influenza bilateral and multilateral international...flexible worksites (e.g., telecommuting ) and flexible work hours (e.g., staggered shifts) in the event of a pandemic. o Ensure development of active...however, special consideration must be given to “social distancing” in the workplace through 74 telecommuting , or other means, as an

  18. A knowledge representation of local pandemic influenza planning models.

    Islam, Runa; Brandeau, Margaret L; Das, Amar K

    2007-10-11

    Planning for pandemic flu outbreak at the small-government level can be aided through the use of mathematical policy models. Formulating and analyzing policy models, however, can be a time- and expertise-expensive process. We believe that a knowledge-based system for facilitating the instantiation of locale- and problem-specific policy models can reduce some of these costs. In this work, we present the ontology we have developed for pandemic influenza policy models.

  19. Strategies for Fighting Pandemic Flu in Developing Countries

    2009-03-04

    Countries throughout the world are preparing for the next influenza pandemic. Developing countries face special challenges because they don't have antiviral drugs or vaccines that more developed countries have. In this podcast, CDC's Dr. Dan Jernigan discusses new and innovative approaches that may help developing countries fight pandemic flu when it emerges.  Created: 3/4/2009 by Emerging Infectious Diseases.   Date Released: 3/4/2009.

  20. Estimated HCFC-22 emissions for 1990-2050 in China and the increasing contribution to global emissions

    Li, Zhifang; Bie, Pengju; Wang, Ziyuan; Zhang, Zhaoyang; Jiang, Hanyu; Xu, Weiguang; Zhang, Jianbo; Hu, Jianxin

    2016-05-01

    Chlorodifluoromethane (CHClF2, HCFC-22) is a widely used refrigerant and foaming agent that is not only an ozone-depleting substance (ozone depletion potential (ODP), 0.04) but also a greenhouse gas (global warming potential (GWP), 1780). A comprehensive historical emission inventory for 1990-2014 was produced using a bottom-up method, and a projection through to 2050 was made for China. The results demonstrated that historical emissions increased sharply from 0.2 Gg/yr in 1990 to 127.2 Gg/yr in 2014. Room air-conditioners (RACs), industrial and commercial refrigeration (ICR), and extruded polystyrene (XPS) were three primary emission sources, and accounted for an average of 95.4% of the total emissions over the period studied. The percentage of global HCFC-22 emissions originating from China significantly increased from 0.1% in 1990 to 31.6% in 2012, with an average growth rate of 1.4% per year. Under the Montreal Protocol phasing-out (MPPO) scenario, future emissions were expected to reach a peak of 133.5 Gg/yr in 2016 and then continuously decline to 10.2 Gg/yr in 2050. The accumulative reduction for 2015-2050 would be 5533.8 Gg (equivalent to 221.4 CFC-11-eq Gg and 9850.1 CO2-eq Tg), which is approximately equivalent to the total CO2 emission for China in 2012 (9900 Tg) (Olivier et al., 2013), compared with the no Montreal Protocol scenario (NMP). Under the MPPO scenario, two cases were analyzed to explore the future emission ranges in China. A comparison between the two cases implied that the choice of emission reduction policy will have a considerable impact on HCFC-22 emissions.

  1. Global demethylation of rat chondrosarcoma cells after treatment with 5-aza-2'-deoxycytidine results in increased tumorigenicity.

    Christopher A Hamm

    Full Text Available Abnormal patterns of DNA methylation are observed in several types of human cancer. While localized DNA methylation of CpG islands has been associated with gene silencing, the effect that genome-wide loss of methylation has on tumorigenesis is not completely known. To examine its effect on tumorigenesis, we induced DNA demethylation in a rat model of human chondrosarcoma using 5-aza-2-deoxycytidine. Rat specific pyrosequencing assays were utilized to assess the methylation levels in both LINEs and satellite DNA sequences following 5-aza-2-deoxycytidine treatment. Loss of DNA methylation was accompanied by an increase in invasiveness of the rat chondrosarcoma cells, in vitro, as well as by an increase in tumor growth in vivo. Subsequent microarray analysis provided insight into the gene expression changes that result from 5-aza-2-deoxycytidine induced DNA demethylation. In particular, two genes that may function in tumorigenesis, sox-2 and midkine, were expressed at low levels in control cells but upon 5-aza-2-deoxycytidine treatment these genes became overexpressed. Promoter region DNA analysis revealed that these genes were methylated in control cells but became demethylated following 5-aza-2-deoxycytidine treatment. Following withdrawal of 5-aza-2-deoxycytidine, the rat chondrosarcoma cells reestablished global DNA methylation levels that were comparable to that of control cells. Concurrently, invasiveness of the rat chondrosarcoma cells, in vitro, decreased to a level indistinguishable to that of control cells. Taken together these experiments demonstrate that global DNA hypomethylation induced by 5-aza-2-deoxycytidine may promote specific aspects of tumorigenesis in rat chondrosarcoma cells.

  2. Temperature sensitivity of drought-induced tree mortality portends increased regional die-off under global-change-type drought

    Adams, Henry D.; Guardiola-Claramonte, Maite; Barron-Gafford, Greg A.; Villegas, Juan Camilo; Breshears, David D.; Zou, Chris B.; Troch, Peter A.; Huxman, Travis E.

    2009-01-01

    Large-scale biogeographical shifts in vegetation are predicted in response to the altered precipitation and temperature regimes associated with global climate change. Vegetation shifts have profound ecological impacts and are an important climate-ecosystem feedback through their alteration of carbon, water, and energy exchanges of the land surface. Of particular concern is the potential for warmer temperatures to compound the effects of increasingly severe droughts by triggering widespread vegetation shifts via woody plant mortality. The sensitivity of tree mortality to temperature is dependent on which of 2 non-mutually-exclusive mechanisms predominates—temperature-sensitive carbon starvation in response to a period of protracted water stress or temperature-insensitive sudden hydraulic failure under extreme water stress (cavitation). Here we show that experimentally induced warmer temperatures (≈4 °C) shortened the time to drought-induced mortality in Pinus edulis (piñon shortened pine) trees by nearly a third, with temperature-dependent differences in cumulative respiration costs implicating carbon starvation as the primary mechanism of mortality. Extrapolating this temperature effect to the historic frequency of water deficit in the southwestern United States predicts a 5-fold increase in the frequency of regional-scale tree die-off events for this species due to temperature alone. Projected increases in drought frequency due to changes in precipitation and increases in stress from biotic agents (e.g., bark beetles) would further exacerbate mortality. Our results demonstrate the mechanism by which warmer temperatures have exacerbated recent regional die-off events and background mortality rates. Because of pervasive projected increases in temperature, our results portend widespread increases in the extent and frequency of vegetation die-off. PMID:19365070

  3. Investing in Immunity: Prepandemic Immunization to Combat Future Influenza Pandemics.

    Goodman, Jesse L

    2016-02-15

    We are unlikely, with current technologies, to have sufficient pandemic influenza vaccine ready in time to impact the first wave of the next pandemic. Emerging data show that prior immunization with an immunologically distinct hemagglutinin of the same subtype offers the potential to "prime" recipients for rapid protection with a booster dose, years later, of a vaccine then manufactured to match the pandemic strain. This article proposes making prepandemic priming vaccine(s) available for voluntary use, particularly to those at high risk of early occupational exposure, such as first responders and healthcare workers, and to others maintaining critical infrastructure. In addition to providing faster protection and potentially reducing social disruption, being able, early in a pandemic, to immunize those who had received prepandemic vaccine with one dose of the pandemic vaccine, rather than the 2 doses typically required, would reduce the total doses of pandemic vaccine then needed, extending vaccine supplies. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America 2015. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

  4. Global adiposity and thickness of intraperitoneal and mesenteric adipose tissue depots are increased in women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS).

    Borruel, Susana; Fernández-Durán, Elena; Alpañés, Macarena; Martí, David; Alvarez-Blasco, Francisco; Luque-Ramírez, Manuel; Escobar-Morreale, Héctor F

    2013-03-01

    Sexual dimorphism suggests a role for androgens in body fat distribution. Women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS), a mainly androgen excess disorder, often present with abdominal obesity and visceral adiposity. We hypothesized that women with PCOS have a masculinized body fat distribution favoring the deposition of fat in visceral and organ-specific adipose tissue depots. This was a case-control study. The study was conducted at an academic hospital. Women with PCOS (n = 55), women without androgen excess (n = 25), and men (n = 26) presenting with similar body mass index participated in the study. There were no interventions. Ultrasound measurements of adipose tissue depots including sc (minimum and maximum), preperitoneal, ip, mesenteric, epicardial, and perirenal fat thickness were obtained and total body fat mass was estimated using a body fat monitor. Men and patients with PCOS had increased amounts of total body fat compared with control women. Men had increased thickness of intraabdominal adipose tissue depots compared with the control women, with the women with PCOS showing intermediate values that were also higher than those of control women in the case of ip and mesenteric fat thickness and was close to reaching statistical significance in the case of epicardial fat thickness. Women with PCOS also showed increased minimum sc fat thickness compared with the control women. Obesity increased the thickness of all of the adipose tissue depots in the 3 groups of subjects. Women with PCOS have higher global adiposity and increased amounts of visceral adipose tissue compared with control women, especially in the ip and mesenteric depots.

  5. Physician privacy concerns when disclosing patient data for public health purposes during a pandemic influenza outbreak.

    El Emam, Khaled; Mercer, Jay; Moreau, Katherine; Grava-Gubins, Inese; Buckeridge, David; Jonker, Elizabeth

    2011-06-09

    Privacy concerns by providers have been a barrier to disclosing patient information for public health purposes. This is the case even for mandated notifiable disease reporting. In the context of a pandemic it has been argued that the public good should supersede an individual's right to privacy. The precise nature of these provider privacy concerns, and whether they are diluted in the context of a pandemic are not known. Our objective was to understand the privacy barriers which could potentially influence family physicians' reporting of patient-level surveillance data to public health agencies during the Fall 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza outbreak. Thirty seven family doctors participated in a series of five focus groups between October 29-31 2009. They also completed a survey about the data they were willing to disclose to public health units. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize the amount of patient detail the participants were willing to disclose, factors that would facilitate data disclosure, and the consensus on those factors. The analysis of the qualitative data was based on grounded theory. The family doctors were reluctant to disclose patient data to public health units. This was due to concerns about the extent to which public health agencies are dependable to protect health information (trusting beliefs), and the possibility of loss due to disclosing health information (risk beliefs). We identified six specific actions that public health units can take which would affect these beliefs, and potentially increase the willingness to disclose patient information for public health purposes. The uncertainty surrounding a pandemic of a new strain of influenza has not changed the privacy concerns of physicians about disclosing patient data. It is important to address these concerns to ensure reliable reporting during future outbreaks.

  6. Synthetic generation of influenza vaccine viruses for rapid response to pandemics.

    Dormitzer, Philip R; Suphaphiphat, Pirada; Gibson, Daniel G; Wentworth, David E; Stockwell, Timothy B; Algire, Mikkel A; Alperovich, Nina; Barro, Mario; Brown, David M; Craig, Stewart; Dattilo, Brian M; Denisova, Evgeniya A; De Souza, Ivna; Eickmann, Markus; Dugan, Vivien G; Ferrari, Annette; Gomila, Raul C; Han, Liqun; Judge, Casey; Mane, Sarthak; Matrosovich, Mikhail; Merryman, Chuck; Palladino, Giuseppe; Palmer, Gene A; Spencer, Terika; Strecker, Thomas; Trusheim, Heidi; Uhlendorff, Jennifer; Wen, Yingxia; Yee, Anthony C; Zaveri, Jayshree; Zhou, Bin; Becker, Stephan; Donabedian, Armen; Mason, Peter W; Glass, John I; Rappuoli, Rino; Venter, J Craig

    2013-05-15

    During the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, vaccines for the virus became available in large quantities only after human infections peaked. To accelerate vaccine availability for future pandemics, we developed a synthetic approach that very rapidly generated vaccine viruses from sequence data. Beginning with hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) gene sequences, we combined an enzymatic, cell-free gene assembly technique with enzymatic error correction to allow rapid, accurate gene synthesis. We then used these synthetic HA and NA genes to transfect Madin-Darby canine kidney (MDCK) cells that were qualified for vaccine manufacture with viral RNA expression constructs encoding HA and NA and plasmid DNAs encoding viral backbone genes. Viruses for use in vaccines were rescued from these MDCK cells. We performed this rescue with improved vaccine virus backbones, increasing the yield of the essential vaccine antigen, HA. Generation of synthetic vaccine seeds, together with more efficient vaccine release assays, would accelerate responses to influenza pandemics through a system of instantaneous electronic data exchange followed by real-time, geographically dispersed vaccine production.

  7. Assessing exposure risks for aquatic organisms posed by Tamiflu use under seasonal influenza and pandemic conditions

    Chen, Wei-Yu; Lin, Chia-Jung; Liao, Chung-Min

    2014-01-01

    Environmental pollution by anti-influenza drugs is increasingly recognized as a threat to aquatic environments. However, little is known about empirical data on risk effects posed by environmentally relevant concentrations of anti-influenza drug based on recently published ecotoxicological researches in Taiwan. Here we linked ecotoxicology models with an epidemiological scheme to assess exposure risks of aquatic organisms and environmental hazards posed by antiviral oseltamivir (Tamiflu) use in Taiwan. Built on published bioassays, we used probabilistic risk assessment model to estimate potential threats of environmentally relevant hazards on algae, daphnid, and zerbrafish. We found that Tamiflu use was unlikely to pose a significant chronic environmental risk to daphnia and zebrafish during seasonal influenza. However, the chronic environmental risk posed by Tamiflu use during pandemic was alarming. We conclude that no significant risk to algal growth was found during seasonal influenza and high pandemic Tamiflu use. -- Highlights: • Environmentally relevant concentrations of anti-influenza drug have ecotoxicologically important effects. • Tamiflu is unlikely to pose a significant chronic environmental risk during seasonal influenza. • Chronic environmental risk posed by Tamiflu during pandemic is alarming. • Tertiary process in sewage treatment plants is crucial in mitigating Tamiflu exposure risk. -- A probabilistic framework can be used for assessing exposure risks posed by environmentally relevant concentrations of anti-influenza drug in aquatic ecosystems

  8. Transnational Corporations in World Development – Still the Same Harmful Effects in an Increasingly Globalized World Economy?

    Mark Herkenrath

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Transnational corporations (TNCs have reached historically unprecedented weight and power in the world’s political economy. Thus, the old question of how these corporations a?ect global development is nowadays more signi?cant than ever. While some scholars claim that corporate globalization will eventually close the worldwide development gap, many others contend that TNC activities lead to insu?cient exploitation of growth potentials within the host country, thereby hindering convergence of national income levels. The present study aims at assessing the validity of these controversial positions by confronting them with the results of past and present empirical research. In the ?rst part, we examine the e?ect of TNC presence on intra-national income inequality by reviewing the most recent cross-national studies dealing with this issue. In the second part, we present the results of our own research, which analyzes the e?ect of TNC presence on economic growth in a sample of 84 countries. The contemporary empirical evidence discussed in the ?rst part as well as the results of our own analyses tend to con?rm earlier ?ndings. They suggest that dependence on TNC activities increases inequality without adding to economic growth. However, the strong negative e?ect of TNC presence on growth found in analyses of data from the late 1960s cannot be reproduced in our contemporary analysis. In a signi?cant number of cases, the potentially harmful consequences of TNC activities seem to have been overcome by adequate countervailing state actions.

  9. Estimation of the burden of pandemic(H1N12009 in developing countries: experience from a tertiary care center in South India.

    Mahesh Moorthy

    Full Text Available The burden of the pandemic (H1N1 2009 influenza might be underestimated if detection of the virus is mandated to diagnose infection. Using an alternate approach, we propose that a much higher pandemic burden was experienced in our institution.Consecutive patients (n = 2588 presenting to our hospital with influenza like illness (ILI or severe acute respiratory infection (SARI during a 1-year period (May 2009-April 2010 were prospectively recruited and tested for influenza A by real-time RT-PCR. Analysis of weekly trends showed an 11-fold increase in patients presenting with ILI/SARI during the peak pandemic period when compared with the pre-pandemic period and a significant (P<0.001 increase in SARI admissions during the pandemic period (30 ± 15.9 admissions/week when compared with pre-pandemic (7 ± 2.5 and post-pandemic periods (5 ± 3.8. However, Influenza A was detected in less than one-third of patients with ILI/SARI [699 (27.0%]; a majority of these (557/699, 79.7% were Pandemic (H1N12009 virus [A/H1N1/09]. An A/H1N1/09 positive test was correlated with shorter symptom duration prior to presentation (p = 0.03. More ILI cases tested positive for A/H1N1/09 when compared with SARI (27.4% vs. 14.6%, P = 0.037. When the entire study population was considered, A/H1N1/09 positivity was associated with lower risk of hospitalization (p<0.0001 and ICU admission (p = 0.013 suggesting mild self-limiting illness in a majority.Analysis of weekly trends of ILI/SARI suggest a higher burden of the pandemic attributable to A/H1N1/09 than estimates assessed by a positive PCR test alone. The study highlights methodological consideration in the estimation of burden of pandemic influenza in developing countries using hospital-based data that may help assess the impact of future outbreaks of respiratory illnesses.

  10. Increase in Fracture Risk Following Unintentional Weight Loss in Postmenopausal Women: The Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women†

    Compston, Juliet E.; Wyman, A; FitzGerald, Gordon; Adachi, Jonathan D.; Chapurlat, Roland D.; Cooper, Cyrus; Díez-Pérez, Adolfo; Gehlbach, Stephen H; Greenspan, Susan L.; Hooven, Frederick H.; LaCroix, Andrea Z.; March, Lyn; Coen Netelenbos, J.; Nieves, Jeri W.; Pfeilschifter, Johannes; Rossini, Maurizio; Roux, Christian; Saag, Kenneth G.; Siris, Ethel S.; Silverman, Stuart; Watts, Nelson B.; Anderson, Frederick A.

    2016-01-01

    Increased fracture risk has been associated with weight loss in postmenopausal women but the time course over which this occurs has not been established. The aim of this study was to examine the effects of unintentional weight loss of ≥10 lb (4.5 kg) in postmenopausal women on fracture risk at multiple sites up to 5 years following weight loss. Using data from the Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW) we analyzed the relationships between self-reported unintentional weight loss of ≥10 lb at baseline, year 2, or year 3 and incident clinical fracture in the years following weight loss. Complete data were available in 40,179 women (mean age ± SD 68 ± 8.3 years). Five-year cumulative fracture rate was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and adjusted hazard ratios for weight loss as a time-varying covariate were calculated from Cox multiple regression models. Unintentional weight loss at baseline was associated with a significantly increased risk of fracture of the clavicle, wrist, spine, rib, hip, and pelvis for up to 5 years following weight loss. Adjusted hazard ratios showed a significant association between unintentional weight loss and fracture of the hip, spine, and clavicle within 1 year of weight loss, and these associations were still present at 5 years. These findings demonstrate increased fracture risk at several sites after unintentional weight loss in postmenopausal women. This increase is seen as early as 1 year following weight loss, emphasizing the need for prompt fracture risk assessment and appropriate management to reduce fracture risk in this population. PMID:26861139

  11. Noncommunicable Diseases: Three Decades Of Global Data Show A Mixture Of Increases And Decreases In Mortality Rates.

    Ali, Mohammed K; Jaacks, Lindsay M; Kowalski, Alysse J; Siegel, Karen R; Ezzati, Majid

    2015-09-01

    Noncommunicable diseases are the leading health concerns of the modern era, accounting for two-thirds of global deaths, half of all disability, and rapidly growing costs. To provide a contemporary overview of the burdens caused by noncommunicable diseases, we compiled mortality data reported by authorities in forty-nine countries for atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases; diabetes; chronic respiratory diseases; and lung, colon, breast, cervical, liver, and stomach cancers. From 1980 to 2012, on average across all countries, mortality for cardiovascular disease, stomach cancer, and cervical cancer declined, while mortality for diabetes, liver cancer, and female chronic respiratory disease and lung cancer increased. In contrast to the relatively steep cardiovascular and cancer mortality declines observed in high-income countries, mortality for cardiovascular disease and chronic respiratory disease was flat in most low- and middle-income countries, which also experienced increasing breast and colon cancer mortality. These divergent mortality patterns likely reflect differences in timing and magnitude of risk exposures, health care, and policies to counteract the diseases. Improving both the coverage and the accuracy of mortality documentation in populous low- and middle-income countries is a priority, as is the need to rigorously evaluate societal-level interventions. Furthermore, given the complex, chronic, and progressive nature of noncommunicable diseases, policies and programs to prevent and control them need to be multifaceted and long-term, as returns on investment accrue with time. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

  12. The avian-origin PB1 gene segment facilitated replication and transmissibility of the H3N2/1968 pandemic influenza virus.

    Wendel, Isabel; Rubbenstroth, Dennis; Doedt, Jennifer; Kochs, Georg; Wilhelm, Jochen; Staeheli, Peter; Klenk, Hans-Dieter; Matrosovich, Mikhail

    2015-04-01

    /1968 virus from its putative human and avian precursors. We show that the avian PB1 segment increased activity of the viral polymerase and facilitated viral replication. Our results suggest that in addition to the acquisition of antigenically novel HA (i.e., antigenic shift), enhanced viral polymerase activity is required for the emergence of pandemic influenza viruses from their seasonal human precursors. Copyright © 2015, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

  13. The ghost of pandemics past: revisiting two centuries of influenza in Sweden.

    Holmberg, Martin

    2017-09-01

    Previous influenza pandemics are usually invoked in pandemic preparedness planning without a thorough analysis of the events surrounding them, what has been called the 'configuration' of epidemics. Historic pandemics are instead used to contrast them to the novelty of the coming imagined plague or as fear of a ghost-like repetition of the past. This view of pandemics is guided by a biomedical framework that is ahistorical and reductionist. The meaning of 'pandemic' influenza is in fact highly ambiguous in its partitioning of pandemic and seasonal influenza. The past 200 years of influenza epidemics in Sweden are examined with a special focus on key social structures-households, schools, transportations and the military. These are shown to have influenced the progression of influenza pandemics. Prevailing beliefs around influenza pandemics have also profoundly influenced intervention strategies. Measuring long-term trends in pandemic severity is problematic because pandemics are non-linear events where the conditions surrounding them constantly change. However, in a linearised view, the Spanish flu can be seen to represent a historical turning point and the H1N1 2009 pandemic not as an outlier, but following a 100-year trend of decreasing severity. Integrating seasonal and pandemic influenza, and adopting an ecosocial stance can deepen our understanding and bring the ghost-like pandemic past to life. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  14. Spatial association between malaria pandemic and mortality

    B M Dansu

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Malaria pandemic (MP has been linked to a range of serious health problems including premature mortality. The main objective of this research is to quantify uncertainties about impacts of malaria on mortality. A multivariate spatial regression model was developed for estimation of the risk of mortality associated with malaria across Ogun State in Nigeria, West Africa. We characterize different local governments in the data and model the spatial structure of the mortality data in infants and pregnant women. A flexible Bayesian hierarchical model was considered for a space-time series of counts (mortality by constructing a likelihood-based version of a generalized Poisson regression model that combines methods for point-level misaligned data and change of support regression. A simple two-stage procedure for producing maps of predicted risk is described. Logistic regression modeling was used to determine an approximate risk on a larger scale, and geo-statistical ("Kriging" approaches were used to improve prediction at a local level. The results suggest improvement of risk prediction brought about in the second stage. The advantages and shortcomings of this approach highlight the need for further development of a better analytical methodology.

  15. The AIDS pandemic in historic perspective.

    Kazanjian, Powel

    2014-07-01

    Potent antiretroviral drugs (ART) have changed the nature of AIDS, a once deadly disease, into a manageable illness and offer the promise of reducing the spread of HIV. But the pandemic continues to expand and cause significant morbidity and devastation to families and nations as ART cannot be distributed worldwide to all who need the drugs to treat their infections, prevent HIV transmission, or serve as prophylaxis. Furthermore, conventional behavioral prevention efforts based on theories that individuals can be taught to modify risky behaviors if they have the knowledge to do so have been ineffective. Noting behavioral strategies targeting individuals fail to address broader social and political structures that create environments vulnerable to HIV spread, social scientists and public health officials insist that HIV policies must be comprehensive and also target a variety of structures at the population and environmental level. Nineteenth-century public health programs that targeted environmental susceptibility are the historical analogues to today's comprehensive biomedical and structural strategies to handle AIDS. Current AIDS policies underscore that those fighting HIV using scientific advances in virology and molecular biology cannot isolate HIV from its broader environment and social context any more than their nineteenth-century predecessors who were driven by the filth theory of disease. © The Author 2012. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  16. Risk of Guillain-Barré syndrome after exposure to pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccination or infection: a Norwegian population-based cohort study.

    Ghaderi, Sara; Gunnes, Nina; Bakken, Inger Johanne; Magnus, Per; Trogstad, Lill; Håberg, Siri Eldevik

    2016-01-01

    Vaccinations and infections are possible triggers of Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS). However, studies on GBS after vaccinations during the influenza A(H1N1)pmd09 pandemic in 2009, show inconsistent results. Only few studies have addressed the role of influenza infection. We used information from national health data-bases with information on the total Norwegian population (N = 4,832,211). Cox regression analyses with time-varying covariates and self-controlled case series was applied. The risk of being hospitalized with GBS during the pandemic period, within 42 days after an influenza diagnosis or pandemic vaccination was estimated. There were 490 GBS cases during 2009-2012 of which 410 cases occurred after October 1, 2009 of which 46 new cases occurred during the peak period of the influenza pandemic. An influenza diagnosis was registered for 2.47% of the population and the vaccination coverage was 39.25%. The incidence rate ratio of GBS during the pandemic peak relative to other periods was 1.46 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.08-1.98]. The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of GBS within 42 days after a diagnosis of pandemic influenza was 4.89 (95% CI 1.17-20.36). After pandemic vaccination the adjusted HR was 1.11 (95% CI 0.51-2.43). Our results indicated that there was a significantly increased risk of GBS during the pandemic season and after pandemic influenza infection. However, vaccination did not increase the risk of GBS. The small number of GBS cases in this study warrants caution in the interpretation of the findings.

  17. The macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza: estimates from models of the United Kingdom, France, Belgium and The Netherlands.

    Keogh-Brown, Marcus Richard; Smith, Richard D; Edmunds, John W; Beutels, Philippe

    2010-12-01

    The 2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) showed that infectious disease outbreaks can have notable macroeconomic impacts. The current H1N1 and potential H5N1 flu pandemics could have a much greater impact. Using a multi-sector single country computable general equilibrium model of the United Kingdom, France, Belgium and The Netherlands, together with disease scenarios of varying severity, we examine the potential economic cost of a modern pandemic. Policies of school closure, vaccination and antivirals, together with prophylactic absence from work are evaluated and their cost impacts are estimated. Results suggest GDP losses from the disease of approximately 0.5-2% but school closure and prophylactic absenteeism more than triples these effects. Increasing school closures from 4 weeks at the peak to entire pandemic closure almost doubles the economic cost, but antivirals and vaccinations seem worthwhile. Careful planning is therefore important to ensure expensive policies to mitigate the pandemic are effective in minimising illness and deaths.

  18. Previous Fractures at Multiple Sites Increase the Risk for Subsequent Fractures: The Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women

    Gehlbach, Stephen; Saag, Kenneth G.; Adachi, Jonathan D.; Hooven, Fred H.; Flahive, Julie; Boonen, Steven; Chapurlat, Roland D.; Compston, Juliet E.; Cooper, Cyrus; Díez-Perez, Adolfo; Greenspan, Susan L.; LaCroix, Andrea Z.; Netelenbos, J. Coen; Pfeilschifter, Johannes; Rossini, Maurizio; Roux, Christian; Sambrook, Philip N.; Silverman, Stuart; Siris, Ethel S.; Watts, Nelson B.; Lindsay, Robert

    2016-01-01

    Previous fractures of the hip, spine, or wrist are well-recognized predictors of future fracture, but the role of other fracture sites is less clear. We sought to assess the relationship between prior fracture at 10 skeletal locations and incident fracture. The Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW) is an observational cohort study being conducted in 17 physician practices in 10 countries. Women ≥ 55 years answered questionnaires at baseline and at 1 and/or 2 years (fractures in previous year). Of 60,393 women enrolled, follow-up data were available for 51,762. Of these, 17.6%, 4.0%, and 1.6% had suffered 1, 2, or ≥3 fractures since age 45. During the first 2 years of follow-up, 3149 women suffered 3683 incident fractures. Compared with women with no prior fractures, women with 1, 2, or ≥ 3 prior fractures were 1.8-, 3.0-, and 4.8-fold more likely to have any incident fracture; those with ≥3 prior fractures were 9.1-fold more likely to sustain a new vertebral fracture. Nine of 10 prior fracture locations were associated with an incident fracture. The strongest predictors of incident spine and hip fractures were prior spine fracture (hazard ratio 7.3) and hip (hazard ratio 3.5). Prior rib fractures were associated with a 2.3-fold risk of subsequent vertebral fracture, previous upper leg fracture predicted a 2.2-fold increased risk of hip fracture; women with a history of ankle fracture were at 1.8-fold risk of future fracture of a weight-bearing bone. Our findings suggest that a broad range of prior fracture sites are associated with an increased risk of incident fractures, with important implications for clinical assessments and risk model development. PMID:22113888

  19. Integrated rice-duck farming decreases global warming potential and increases net ecosystem economic budget in central China.

    Sheng, Feng; Cao, Cou-Gui; Li, Cheng-Fang

    2018-05-31

    Over the past decades, many attempts have been made to assess the effects of integrated rice-duck farming on greenhouse gas emissions, use efficient of energy, soil fertility, and economic significance. However, very few studies have been focused on the effects of the farming on net ecosystem economic budget (NEEB). Here, a 2-year field experiment was conducted to comprehensively investigate the effects of ducks raised in paddy fields on CH 4 and N 2 O emissions, global warming potential (GWP), rice grain yield, and NEEB in central China. The experiment included two treatments: integrated rice-duck farming (RD) and conventional rice farming (R). The introduction of ducks into the paddy fields markedly increased the rice grain yield due to enhanced tiller number and root bleeding rate. RD treatment significantly elevated the N 2 O emissions (p < 0.05) but decreased CH 4 emissions (p < 0.05) during rice growing seasons compared with R treatment. Analysis of GWP based on CH 4 and N 2 O emissions showed that compared with R treatment, RD treatment significantly decreased the GWP by 28.1 and 28.0% and reduced the greenhouse gas intensity by 30.6 and 29.8% in 2009 and 2010, respectively. In addition, RD treatment increased NEEB by 40.8 and 39.7% respectively in 2009 and 2010 relative to R treatment. Taken together, our results suggest that the integrated rice-duck farming system is an effective strategy to optimize the economic and environmental benefits of paddy fields in central China.

  20. An Ecological Assessment of the Pandemic Threat of Zika Virus.

    Carlson, Colin J; Dougherty, Eric R; Getz, Wayne

    2016-08-01

    The current outbreak of Zika virus poses a severe threat to human health. While the range of the virus has been cataloged growing slowly over the last 50 years, the recent explosive expansion in the Americas indicates that the full potential distribution of Zika remains uncertain. Moreover, many studies rely on its similarity to dengue fever, a phylogenetically closely related disease of unknown ecological comparability. Here we compile a comprehensive spatially-explicit occurrence dataset from Zika viral surveillance and serological surveys based in its native range, and construct ecological niche models to test basic hypotheses about its spread and potential establishment. The hypothesis that the outbreak of cases in Mexico and North America are anomalous and outside the native ecological niche of the disease, and may be linked to either genetic shifts between strains, or El Nino or similar climatic events, remains plausible at this time. Comparison of the Zika niche against the known distribution of dengue fever suggests that Zika is more constrained by the seasonality of precipitation and diurnal temperature fluctuations, likely confining autochthonous non-sexual transmission to the tropics without significant evolutionary change. Projecting the range of the diseases in conjunction with three major vector species (Aedes africanus, Ae. aegypti, and Ae. albopictus) that transmit the pathogens, under climate change, suggests that Zika has potential for northward expansion; but, based on current knowledge, our models indicate Zika is unlikely to fill the full range its vectors occupy, and public fear of a vector-borne Zika epidemic in the mainland United States is potentially informed by biased or limited scientific knowledge. With recent sexual transmission of the virus globally, we caution that our results only apply to the vector-borne transmission route of the pathogen, and while the threat of a mosquito-carried Zika pandemic may be overstated in the media

  1. Pandemic influenza communication: views from a deliberative forum.

    Rogers, Wendy A; Street, Jackie M; Braunack-Mayer, Annette J; Hiller, Janet E

    2009-09-01

    To use a deliberative forum to elicit community perspectives on communication about pandemic influenza planning, and to compare these findings with the current Australian national communication strategy. Deliberative forum of 12 persons randomly selected from urban South Australia. Forum members were briefed by experts in infection control, virology, ethics and public policy before deliberating on four key questions: what, how and when should the community be told about pandemic influenza and by whom? The forum recommended provision of detailed and comprehensive information by credible experts, rather than politicians, using a variety of media including television and internet. Recommendations included cumulative communication to build expertise in the community, and specific strategies to include groups such as young people, people with physical or mental disabilities, and rural and remote communities. Information provided should be practical, accurate, and timely, with no 'holding back' about the seriousness of a pandemic. The forum expressed confidence in the expert witnesses, despite the acknowledged uncertainty of many of the predictions. The deliberative forum's recommendations were largely consistent with the Australian national pandemic influenza communication strategy and the relevant literature. However, the forum recommended: release of more detailed information than currently proposed in the national strategy; use of non-political spokespersons; and use of novel communication methods. Their acceptance of uncertainty suggests that policy makers should be open about the limits of knowledge in potentially threatening situations. Our findings show that deliberative forums can provide community perspectives on topics such as communication about pandemic influenza.

  2. Simulating school closure policies for cost effective pandemic decision making

    Araz Ozgur M

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Around the globe, school closures were used sporadically to mitigate the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. However, such closures can detrimentally impact economic and social life. Methods Here, we couple a decision analytic approach with a mathematical model of influenza transmission to estimate the impact of school closures in terms of epidemiological and cost effectiveness. Our method assumes that the transmissibility and the severity of the disease are uncertain, and evaluates several closure and reopening strategies that cover a range of thresholds in school-aged prevalence (SAP and closure durations. Results Assuming a willingness to pay per quality adjusted life-year (QALY threshold equal to the US per capita GDP ($46,000, we found that the cost effectiveness of these strategies is highly dependent on the severity and on a willingness to pay per QALY. For severe pandemics, the preferred strategy couples the earliest closure trigger (0.5% SAP with the longest duration closure (24 weeks considered. For milder pandemics, the preferred strategies also involve the earliest closure trigger, but are shorter duration (12 weeks for low transmission rates and variable length for high transmission rates. Conclusions These findings highlight the importance of obtaining early estimates of pandemic severity and provide guidance to public health decision-makers for effectively tailoring school closures strategies in response to a newly emergent influenza pandemic.

  3. Pandemic influenza: human rights, ethics and duty to treat.

    Pahlman, I; Tohmo, H; Gylling, H

    2010-01-01

    The 2009 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic seems to be only moderately severe. In the future, a pandemic influenza with high lethality, such as the Spanish influenza in 1918-1919 or even worse, may emerge. In this kind of scenario, lethality rates ranging roughly from 2% to 30% have been proposed. Legal and ethical issues should be discussed before the incident. This article aims to highlight the legal, ethical and professional aspects that might be relevant to anaesthesiologists in the case of a high-lethality infectious disease such as a severe pandemic influenza. The epidemiology, the role of anaesthesiologists and possible threats to the profession and colleagueship within medical specialties relevant to anaesthesiologists are reviewed. During historical plague epidemics, some doctors have behaved like 'deserters'. However, during the Spanish influenza, physicians remained at their jobs, although many perished. In surveys, more than half of the health-care workers have reported their willingness to work in the case of severe pandemics. Physicians have the same human rights as all citizens: they have to be effectively protected against infectious disease. However, they have a duty to treat. Fair and responsible colleagueship among the diverse medical specialties should be promoted. Until disaster threatens humanity, volunteering to work during a pandemic might be the best way to ensure that physicians and other health-care workers stay at their workplace. Broad discussion in society is needed.

  4. Qualitative motivators and barriers to pandemic vs. seasonal influenza vaccination among healthcare workers: a content analysis.

    Prematunge, Chatura; Corace, Kimberly; McCarthy, Anne; Nair, Rama C; Roth, Virginia; Suh, Kathryn N; Garber, Gary

    2014-12-12

    Influenza is a major concern across healthcare environments. Annual vaccination of healthcare workers (HCW) remains a key mode of influenza prevention in healthcare settings. Yet influenza vaccine coverage among HCWs continues to be below recommended targets, in pandemic and non-pandemic settings. Thus, the primary objective of this analysis is to identify motivators and barriers to pandemic (panINFLU) and seasonal influenza vaccination (sINFLU) through the qualitative analysis of HCW provided reasons driving HCW's personal vaccination decisions. Data were collected from a multi-professional sample of HCWs via a cross-sectional survey study, conducted at a tertiary-care hospital in Ontario, Canada. HCW provided and ranked qualitative reasons for personal (1) panINFLU (pH1N1) and (2) sINFLU (2008/2009 season) vaccine uptake and avoidance were used to identify key vaccination motivators and barriers through content analysis methodology. Most HCW vaccination motivators and barriers were found to be similar for panINFLU and sINFLU vaccines. Personal motivators had the greatest impact on vaccination (panINFLU 29.9% and sINFLU 33.9%). Other motivators included preventing influenza in loved ones, patients, and community, and awareness of HCW role in influenza transmission. In contrast, concerns of vaccine safety and limited HCW knowledge of influenza vaccines (panINFLU 46.2% and sINFLU 37.3%). HCW vaccination during the pandemic was motivated by panINFLU related fear, epidemiology, and workplace pro-vaccination policies. HCW perceptions of accelerated panINFLU vaccine development and vaccine safety compromises, negative views of external sources (i.e. media, pharmaceutical companies, and regulatory agencies) and pandemic management strategies were barriers specific to panINFLU vaccine. HCW panINFLU and sINFLU vaccine coverage can increase if future vaccination programs (1) highlight personal vaccination benefits (2) emphasize the impact HCW non-vaccination on family

  5. Early estimation of pandemic influenza Antiviral and Vaccine Effectiveness (EAVE): use of a unique community and laboratory national data-linked cohort study.

    Simpson, Colin R; Lone, Nazir; McMenamin, Jim; Gunson, Rory; Robertson, Chris; Ritchie, Lewis D; Sheikh, Aziz

    2015-10-01

    After the introduction of any new pandemic influenza, population-level surveillance and rapid assessment of the effectiveness of a new vaccination will be required to ensure that it is targeted to those at increased risk of serious illness or death from influenza. We aimed to build a pandemic influenza reporting platform that will determine, once a new pandemic is under way: the uptake and effectiveness of any new pandemic vaccine or any protective effect conferred by antiviral drugs once available; the clinical attack rate of pandemic influenza; and the existence of protection provided by previous exposure to, and vaccination from, A/H1N1 pandemic or seasonal influenza/identification of susceptible groups. An observational cohort and test-negative study design will be used (post pandemic). A national linkage of patient-level general practice data from 41 Practice Team Information general practices, hospitalisation and death certification, virological swab and serology-linked data. We will study a nationally representative sample of the Scottish population comprising 300,000 patients. Confirmation of influenza using reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction and, in a subset of the population, serology. Future available pandemic influenza vaccination and antivirals will be evaluated. To build a reporting platform tailored towards the evaluation of pandemic influenza vaccination. This system will rapidly measure vaccine effectiveness (VE), adjusting for confounders, estimated by determining laboratory-confirmed influenza; influenza-related morbidity and mortality, including general practice influenza-like illnesses (ILIs); and hospitalisation and death from influenza and pneumonia. Once a validated haemagglutination inhibition assay has been developed (and prior to the introduction of any vaccination), cross-reactivity with previous exposure to A/H1N1 or A/H1N1 vaccination, other pandemic influenza or other seasonal influenza vaccination or exposure will be

  6. Small global effect on terrestrial net primary production due to increased fossil fuel aerosol emissions from East Asia during the last decade.

    O'Sullivan, Michael; Rap, Alex; Reddington, Carly; Spracklen, Dominick; Buermann, Wolfgang

    2016-04-01

    The global terrestrial carbon sink has increased since the start of this century at a time of rapidly growing carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel burning. Here we test the hypothesis that increases in atmospheric aerosols from fossil fuel burning have increased the diffuse fraction of incoming solar radiation and the efficiency of photosynthesis leading to increased plant carbon uptake. Using a combination of atmospheric and biospheric models, we find that changes in diffuse light associated with fossil fuel aerosol emission accounts for only 2.8% of the increase in global net primary production (1.221 PgC/yr) over the study period 1998 to 2007. This relatively small global signal is however a result of large regional compensations. Over East Asia, the strong increase in fossil fuel emissions contributed nearly 70% of the increased plant carbon uptake (21 TgC/yr), whereas the declining fossil fuel aerosol emissions in Europe and North America contributed negatively (-16% and -54%, respectively) to increased plant carbon uptake. At global scale, we also find the CO2 fertilization effect on photosynthesis to be the dominant driver of increased plant carbon uptake, in line with previous studies. These results suggest that further research into alternative mechanisms by which fossil fuel emissions could increase carbon uptake, such as nitrogen deposition and carbon-nitrogen interactions, is required to better understand a potential link between the recent changes in fossil fuel emissions and terrestrial carbon uptake.

  7. Diabetes type 2 pandemic in 21st century.

    Ginter, E; Simko, V

    2010-01-01

    In the second half of the 20th century it became obvious that a relentless increase in diabetes type 2 (DM) affecting the economically affluent countries, is gradually afflicting also the developing world. This review juxtaposes the threat that the DM epidemic represents to mankind, with the astonishing recent discoveries on the role of obesity and of the body fat in this metabolic disorder. Presently, the highest prevalence of DM is in Saudi Arabia, a country deep in riches generated by its oil wells. DM is very high, in over 10% of adults in the USA, Switzerland and Austria. Prevalence is low in Norway, China and in Iceland. Predictions of epidemiologists for the first third of the 21st century claim up to 2.5 times increase in DM in the Middle East, Sub-Saharan Africa, India, rest of Asia and in the Latin America. In China the number of patients with DM will double but in the economically advanced countries that experienced rise in DM in the 20th century, the increase will be only about 50%. Remarkably, a lowest increase in DM is expected in the countries that formerly belonged to the Soviet political space. Increasing urbanization, aging populations, obesity, and falling levels of physical activity are all contributing to the rise of DM worldwide. The main cause of DM pandemic is growing prevalence of obesity, in Europe and in the Latin America. In the North America obesity is considered to be responsible for 90% of DM in females. Male obesity is associated with DM slightly less, at 70-80% in the European Union and in the US. The precise mechanism by which obesity leads to insulin resistance and to DM is not completely described but it may be related to several biochemical factors, such as abnormalities in free fatty acids, adipokines, leptin and other substances (Tab. 1, Fig. 4, Ref. 24).

  8. Argumentation as a Strategy for Increasing Preservice Teachers’ Understanding of Climate Change, a Key Global Socioscientific Issue

    Lambert, Julie L.; Bleicher, Robert E.

    2017-01-01

    Findings of this study suggest that scientific argumentation can play an effective role in addressing complex socioscientific issues (i.e. global climate change). This research examined changes in preservice teachers’ knowledge and perceptions about climate change in an innovative undergraduate-level elementary science methods course. The preservice teachers’ understanding of fundamental concepts (e.g., the difference between weather and climate, causes of recent global warming, etc.) increas...

  9. Intra- and inter-pandemic variations of antiviral, antibiotics and decongestants in wastewater treatment plants and receiving rivers.

    Andrew C Singer

    Full Text Available The concentration of eleven antibiotics (trimethoprim, oxytetracycline, ciprofloxacin, azithromycin, cefotaxime, doxycycline, sulfamethoxazole, erythromycin, clarithromycin, ofloxacin, norfloxacin, three decongestants (naphazoline, oxymetazoline, xylometazoline and the antiviral drug oseltamivir's active metabolite, oseltamivir carboxylate (OC, were measured weekly at 21 locations within the River Thames catchment in England during the month of November 2009, the autumnal peak of the influenza A[H1N1]pdm09 pandemic. The aim was to quantify the pharmaceutical response to the pandemic and compare this to drug use during the late pandemic (March 2010 and the inter-pandemic periods (May 2011. A large and small wastewater treatment plant (WWTP were sampled in November 2009 to understand the differential fate of the analytes in the two WWTPs prior to their entry in the receiving river and to estimate drug users using a wastewater epidemiology approach. Mean hourly OC concentrations in the small and large WWTP's influent were 208 and 350 ng/L (max, 2070 and 550 ng/L, respectively. Erythromycin was the most concentrated antibiotic measured in Benson and Oxford WWTPs influent (max=6,870 and 2,930 ng/L, respectively. Napthazoline and oxymetazoline were the most frequently detected and concentrated decongestant in the Benson WWTP influent (1650 and 67 ng/L and effluent (696 and 307 ng/L, respectively, but were below detection in the Oxford WWTP. OC was found in 73% of November 2009's weekly river samples (max=193 ng/L, but only in 5% and 0% of the late- and inter-pandemic river samples, respectively. The mean river concentration of each antibiotic during the pandemic largely fell between 17-74 ng/L, with clarithromycin (max=292 ng/L and erythromycin (max=448 ng/L yielding the highest single measure. In general, the concentration and frequency of detecting antibiotics in the river increased during the pandemic. OC was uniquely well-suited for the wastewater

  10. ‘Presenting CXR phenotype of H1N1’ flu compared with contemporaneous non-H1N1, community acquired pneumonia, during pandemic and post-pandemic outbreaks’

    Minns, F.C.; Nimhuineachain, A; Beek, E.J.R. van; Ritchie, G.; Hill, A.; Murchison, J.T.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Patients with H1N1 pneumonia demonstrated more opacified zones on chest x-ray than patients with non-H1N1 pneumonias. • A particular ‘phenotype’ of chest x-ray changes was identified in H1N1 patients. • This H1N1 ‘phenotype’ was the same for the two evaluated ‘flu seasons, during both pandemic and post pandemic stages. - Abstract: Aims: To review, phenotype and assess potential prognostic value of initial chest X-ray findings in patients with H1N1 influenza during seasonal outbreaks of 2009 and 2010, in comparison with non-H1N1, community acquired pneumonia (CAP). Methods: We retrospectively identified 72 patients admitted to hospital with pneumonia during the seasons of 2009 and 2010. H1N1 cases were confirmed by virology PCR. Presenting chest X-rays were jointly read by 2 radiologists, who were ‘blinded’ to further patient details and divided into 6 zones. Total number of opacified zones, the pattern and distribution of changes and length of hospital stay were recorded. Results: Patients with H1N1 demonstrated more opacified zones (mean of 2.9 compared with 2.0; p = 0.006), which were bilateral in two-thirds compared with a quarter of those with non-H1N1 CAP (p = 0.001). H1N1 radiographs were more likely to be ‘patchy’ versus ‘confluent’ changes of non-H1N1 CAP (p = 0.03) and more often demonstrated peripheral distribution (p = 0.01). H1N1 patients tended to stay in hospital longer (not significant; p = 0.08). A positive correlation existed between number of affected zones and length of inpatient stay, which was statistically significant for the cohorts combined (p = 0.02). The findings were the same for the two evaluated seasons. Conclusion: H1N1 patients demonstrated more extensive disease, which was more likely bilateral, ‘patchy’, and peripheral in distribution. With increasing global cases of H1N1, knowledge of the typical findings of the H1N1 presenting chest X-ray may assist with early triage of patients

  11. ‘Presenting CXR phenotype of H1N1’ flu compared with contemporaneous non-H1N1, community acquired pneumonia, during pandemic and post-pandemic outbreaks’

    Minns, F.C., E-mail: Fiona.Minns@nhslothian.scot.nhs.uk [Department of Radiology, New Royal Infirmary Edinburgh, 51 Little France Crescent, Edinburgh, EH16 4SA (United Kingdom); Nimhuineachain, A, E-mail: draideen@gmail.com [Department of Radiology, New Royal Infirmary Edinburgh, 51 Little France Crescent, Edinburgh, EH16 4SA (United Kingdom); Beek, E.J.R. van, E-mail: Edwin-vanbeek@ed.ac.uk [Clinical Research Imaging Centre, University of Edinburgh, 47 Little France Crescent, Edinburgh, Midlothian EH16 4TJ (United Kingdom); Ritchie, G., E-mail: drgillritchie@hotmail.com [Department of Radiology, New Royal Infirmary Edinburgh, 51 Little France Crescent, Edinburgh, EH16 4SA (United Kingdom); Hill, A., E-mail: adam.hill318@nhs.net [Department of Respiratory Medicine, New Royal Infirmary, Edinburgh (United Kingdom); Murchison, J.T., E-mail: john.murchison@nhslothian.scot.nhs.uk [Department of Radiology, New Royal Infirmary Edinburgh, 51 Little France Crescent, Edinburgh, EH16 4SA (United Kingdom)

    2015-09-15

    Highlights: • Patients with H1N1 pneumonia demonstrated more opacified zones on chest x-ray than patients with non-H1N1 pneumonias. • A particular ‘phenotype’ of chest x-ray changes was identified in H1N1 patients. • This H1N1 ‘phenotype’ was the same for the two evaluated ‘flu seasons, during both pandemic and post pandemic stages. - Abstract: Aims: To review, phenotype and assess potential prognostic value of initial chest X-ray findings in patients with H1N1 influenza during seasonal outbreaks of 2009 and 2010, in comparison with non-H1N1, community acquired pneumonia (CAP). Methods: We retrospectively identified 72 patients admitted to hospital with pneumonia during the seasons of 2009 and 2010. H1N1 cases were confirmed by virology PCR. Presenting chest X-rays were jointly read by 2 radiologists, who were ‘blinded’ to further patient details and divided into 6 zones. Total number of opacified zones, the pattern and distribution of changes and length of hospital stay were recorded. Results: Patients with H1N1 demonstrated more opacified zones (mean of 2.9 compared with 2.0; p = 0.006), which were bilateral in two-thirds compared with a quarter of those with non-H1N1 CAP (p = 0.001). H1N1 radiographs were more likely to be ‘patchy’ versus ‘confluent’ changes of non-H1N1 CAP (p = 0.03) and more often demonstrated peripheral distribution (p = 0.01). H1N1 patients tended to stay in hospital longer (not significant; p = 0.08). A positive correlation existed between number of affected zones and length of inpatient stay, which was statistically significant for the cohorts combined (p = 0.02). The findings were the same for the two evaluated seasons. Conclusion: H1N1 patients demonstrated more extensive disease, which was more likely bilateral, ‘patchy’, and peripheral in distribution. With increasing global cases of H1N1, knowledge of the typical findings of the H1N1 presenting chest X-ray may assist with early triage of patients

  12. Can Resilience be Reconciled with Globalization and the Increasingly Complex Conditions of Resource Degradation in Asian Coastal Regions?

    Derek Armitage

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores the relationship between resilience and globalization. We are concerned, most importantly, with whether resilience is a suitable conceptual framework for natural resource management in the context of the rapid changes and disruptions that globalization causes in social-ecological systems. Although theoretical in scope, we ground this analysis using our experiences in two Asian coastal areas: Junagadh District in Gujarat State, India and Banawa Selatan, in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia. We present the histories of resource exploitation in the two areas, and we attempt to combine a resilience perspective with close attention to the impact of globalization. Our efforts serve as a basis from which to examine the conceptual and practical compatibility of resilience with globalization. The first challenge we address is epistemological: given that resilience and globalization have roots in different disciplines, do they share a sufficiently common perception of change and human action to be compatible? Second, we address the issue of how resilience can be a viable management objective in the rapidly changing context of globalization. We identify scale as particularly important in this regard.

  13. Mediating Water Temperature Increases Due to Livestock and Global Change in High Elevation Meadow Streams of the Golden Trout Wilderness

    Nusslé, Sébastien; Matthews, Kathleen R.; Carlson, Stephanie M.

    2015-01-01

    Rising temperatures due to climate change are pushing the thermal limits of many species, but how climate warming interacts with other anthropogenic disturbances such as land use remains poorly understood. To understand the interactive effects of climate warming and livestock grazing on water temperature in three high elevation meadow streams in the Golden Trout Wilderness, California, we measured riparian vegetation and monitored water temperature in three meadow streams between 2008 and 2013, including two “resting” meadows and one meadow that is partially grazed. All three meadows have been subject to grazing by cattle and sheep since the 1800s and their streams are home to the imperiled California golden trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss aguabonita). In 1991, a livestock exclosure was constructed in one of the meadows (Mulkey), leaving a portion of stream ungrazed to minimize the negative effects of cattle. In 2001, cattle were removed completely from two other meadows (Big Whitney and Ramshaw), which have been in a “resting” state since that time. Inside the livestock exclosure in Mulkey, we found that riverbank vegetation was both larger and denser than outside the exclosure where cattle were present, resulting in more shaded waters and cooler maximal temperatures inside the exclosure. In addition, between meadows comparisons showed that water temperatures were cooler in the ungrazed meadows compared to the grazed area in the partially grazed meadow. Finally, we found that predicted temperatures under different global warming scenarios were likely to be higher in presence of livestock grazing. Our results highlight that land use can interact with climate change to worsen the local thermal conditions for taxa on the edge and that protecting riparian vegetation is likely to increase the resiliency of these ecosystems to climate change. PMID:26565706

  14. Sanitation for all: the global opportunity to increase transgenerational health gains and better understand the link between NCDs and NTDs, a scoping review

    Mishra, Shiva Raj; Dhimal, Meghnath; Bhandari, Parash Mani; Adhikari, Bipin

    2017-01-01

    The global sanitation divide is narrowing. However, in many countries in Asia and Africa, the gap between rural and urban sanitation coverage is rather widening. Moreover, there is an increase in the burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs), notwithstanding to the already high burden of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). A scientific query is building on how the global ?sanitation for all? goal will address the dual burden of NTDs and NCDs, and help further understand the link between the ...

  15. 77 FR 6625 - Meeting the Challenge of Pandemic Influenza: Ethical Guidance for Leaders and Health Care...

    2012-02-08

    ... DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS Meeting the Challenge of Pandemic Influenza: Ethical Guidance for... guidance document entitled ``Meeting the Challenge of Pandemic Influenza: Ethical Guidance for Leaders and... should indicate that they are submitted in response to ``Meeting the Challenge of Pandemic Influenza...

  16. Prevention and control of infectious diseases with pandemic potential: The EU-project SARSControl

    R.A. Ahmad (Riris); R. Krumkamp (R.); J.H. Richardus (Jan Hendrik); R. Reintjes (R.)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractIntroduction: The influenza pandemics of the 20 th century, the SARS epidemic in 2002 / 03 and the growing number of human cases infected with the H5N1 avian infl uenza virus clearly demonstrate that the threat of new pandemics is very real. These events have intensifi ed pandemic

  17. 5 CFR 550.409 - Evacuation payments during a pandemic health crisis.

    2010-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Evacuation payments during a pandemic... during a pandemic health crisis. (a) An agency may order one or more employees to evacuate from their... the employee) during a pandemic health crisis without regard to whether the agency and the employee...

  18. 75 FR 55776 - Request for Comments on Vaccine Production and Additional Planning for Future Possible Pandemic...

    2010-09-14

    ... Production and Additional Planning for Future Possible Pandemic Influenza AGENCY: International Trade... additional planning for future possible pandemic influenza. DATES: Written comments must be submitted on or... influenza pandemic (see World Health Organization announcement of August 10, 2010) and the need to plan for...

  19. Optimal Allocation of Pandemic Influenza Vaccine Depends on Age, Risk and Timing

    Mylius, S.D.; Hagenaars, T.H.J.; Lugner, A.K.; Wallinga, J.

    2008-01-01

    The limited production capacity for vaccines raises the question what the best strategy is for allocating the vaccine to mitigate an influenza pandemic. We developed an age-structured model for spread of an influenza pandemic and validated it against observations from the Asian flu pandemic. Two

  20. Type 2 diabetes mellitus, pandemic in 21st century.

    Ginter, Emil; Simko, Vlado

    2012-01-01

    In the second half of the 20th century it became obvious that a relentless increase in Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), affecting the economically affluent countries, is gradually afflicting also the developing world. This chapter shows the threat that the T2DM epidemic represents to mankind, with the astonishing recent discoveries on the role of obesity and of body fat in this metabolic disorder. Presently, the highest prevalence of T2DM is in Saudi Arabia. T2DM is very high in over 10% of adults in the USA, Switzerland and Austria. Prevalence is low in Norway, China and in Iceland. Predictions of epidemiologists for the first third of the 21st century claim up to 2.5 times increase in the prevalence of T2DM in the Middle East, Sub-Saharan Africa, India, rest of Asia and in the Latin America. In China the number of patients with T2DM will double in 2030. In the economically advanced countries the increase will be about 50% in 2030. Increasing urbanization, aging populations, obesity and falling levels of physical activity are all contributing to the rise of T2DM worldwide. The main cause of T2DM pandemic is growing prevalence of obesity in Europe and USA. In the North America and European Union countries obesity is considered to be responsible for up to 70-90% of T2DM in adult population. The precise mechanism by which obesity leads to insulin resistance and to T2DM is not completely known but it may be related to several biochemical factors such as abnormalities in free fatty acids, adipokines, leptin and other substances.

  1. Hospital capacity and management preparedness for pandemic influenza in Victoria.

    Dewar, Ben; Barr, Ian; Robinson, Priscilla

    2014-04-01

    This study was designed to investigate acute hospital pandemic influenza preparedness in Victoria, Australia, particularly focussing on planning and management efforts. A prospective study was conducted by questionnaire and semi-structured interview of health managers across the Victorian hospital system from July to October 2011. Participants with responsibility for emergency management, planning and operations were selected from every hospital in Victoria with an emergency department to complete a questionnaire (response rate 22/43 = 51%). Each respondent was invited to participate in a phone-based semi-structured interview (response rate 11/22 = 50%). Rural/regional hospitals demonstrated higher levels of clinical (86%) and non-clinical (86%) staff contingency planning than metropolitan hospitals (60% and 40% respectively). Pandemic plans were not being sufficiently tested in exercises or drills, which is likely to undermine their effectiveness. All respondents reported hand hygiene and standard precautions programs in place, although only one-third (33%) of metropolitan respondents and no rural/regional respondents reported being able to meet patient needs with high levels of staff absenteeism. Almost half Victoria's healthcare workers were unvaccinated against influenza. Hospitals across Victoria demonstrated different levels of influenza pandemic preparedness and planning. If a more severe influenza pandemic than that of 2009 arose, Victorian hospitals would struggle with workforce and infrastructure problems, particularly in rural/regional areas. Staff absenteeism threatens to undermine hospital pandemic responses. Various strategies, including education and communication, should be included with in-service training to provide staff with confidence in their ability to work safely during a future pandemic. © 2014 The Authors. ANZJPH © 2014 Public Health Association of Australia.

  2. Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza A: balancing conflicting policy objectives.

    T Déirdre Hollingsworth

    Full Text Available Mitigation of a severe influenza pandemic can be achieved using a range of interventions to reduce transmission. Interventions can reduce the impact of an outbreak and buy time until vaccines are developed, but they may have high social and economic costs. The non-linear effect on the epidemic dynamics means that suitable strategies crucially depend on the precise aim of the intervention. National pandemic influenza plans rarely contain clear statements of policy objectives or prioritization of potentially conflicting aims, such as minimizing mortality (depending on the severity of a pandemic or peak prevalence or limiting the socio-economic burden of contact-reducing interventions. We use epidemiological models of influenza A to investigate how contact-reducing interventions and availability of antiviral drugs or pre-pandemic vaccines contribute to achieving particular policy objectives. Our analyses show that the ideal strategy depends on the aim of an intervention and that the achievement of one policy objective may preclude success with others, e.g., constraining peak demand for public health resources may lengthen the duration of the epidemic and hence its economic and social impact. Constraining total case numbers can be achieved by a range of strategies, whereas strategies which additionally constrain peak demand for services require a more sophisticated intervention. If, for example, there are multiple objectives which must be achieved prior to the availability of a pandemic vaccine (i.e., a time-limited intervention, our analysis shows that interventions should be implemented several weeks into the epidemic, not at the very start. This observation is shown to be robust across a range of constraints and for uncertainty in estimates of both R(0 and the timing of vaccine availability. These analyses highlight the need for more precise statements of policy objectives and their assumed consequences when planning and implementing strategies

  3. Understanding estimated worker absenteeism rates during an influenza pandemic.

    Thanner, Meridith H; Links, Jonathan M; Meltzer, Martin I; Scheulen, James J; Kelen, Gabor D

    2011-01-01

    Published employee absenteeism estimates during an influenza pandemic range from 10 to 40 percent. The purpose of this study was to estimate daily employee absenteeism through the duration of an influenza pandemic and to determine the relative impact of key variables used to derive the estimates. Using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's FluWorkLoss program, the authors estimated the number of absent employees on any given day over the course of a simulated 8-week pandemic wave by using varying attack rates. Employee data from a university with a large academic health system were used. Sensitivity of the program outputs to variation in predictor (inputs) values was assessed. Finally, the authors examined and documented the algorithmic sequence of the program. Using a 35 percent attack rate, a total of 47,270 workdays (or 3.4 percent of all available workdays) would be lost over the course of an 8-week pandemic among a population of 35,026 employees. The highest (peak) daily absenteeism estimate was 5.8 percent (minimum 4.8 percent; maximum 7.4 percent). Sensitivity analysis revealed that varying days missed for nonhospitalized illness had the greatest potential effect on peak absence rate (3.1 to 17.2 percent). Peak absence with 15 and 25 percent attack rates were 2.5 percent and 4.2 percent, respectively. The impact of an influenza pandemic on employee availability may be less than originally thought, even with a high attack rate. These data are generalizable and are not specific to institutions of higher education or medical centers. Thus, these findings provide realistic and useful estimates for influenza pandemic planning for most organizations.

  4. Anti-pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus potential of catechin and gallic acid.

    You, Huey-Ling; Huang, Chao-Chun; Chen, Chung-Jen; Chang, Cheng-Chin; Liao, Pei-Lin; Huang, Sheng-Teng

    2018-05-01

    The pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus has spread worldwide and infected a large proportion of the human population. Discovery of new and effective drugs for the treatment of influenza is a crucial issue for the global medical community. According to our previous study, TSL-1, a fraction of the aqueous extract from the tender leaf of Toonasinensis, has demonstrated antiviral activities against pandemic influenza A (H1N1) through the down-regulation of adhesion molecules and chemokine to prevent viral attachment. The aim of the present study was to identify the active compounds in TSL-1 which exert anti-influenza A (H1N1) virus effects. XTT assay was used to detect the cell viability. Meanwhile, the inhibitory effect on the pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus was analyzed by observing plaque formation, qRT-PCR, neuraminidase activity, and immunofluorescence staining of influenza A-specific glycoprotein. Both catechin and gallic acid were found to be potent inhibitors in terms of influenza virus mRNA replication and MDCK plaque formation. Additionally, both compounds inhibited neuraminidase activities and viral glycoprotein. The 50% effective inhibition concentration (EC 50 ) of catechin and gallic acid for the influenza A (H1N1) virus were 18.4 μg/mL and 2.6 μg/mL, respectively; whereas the 50% cytotoxic concentrations (CC 50 ) of catechin and gallic acid were >100 μg/mL and 22.1 μg/mL, respectively. Thus, the selectivity indexes (SI) of catechin and gallic acid were >5.6 and 22.1, respectively. The present study demonstrates that catechin might be a safe reagent for long-term use to prevent influenza A (H1N1) virus infection; whereas gallic acid might be a sensitive reagent to inhibit influenza virus infection. We conclude that these two phyto-chemicals in TSL-1 are responsible for exerting anti-pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus effects. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Taiwan LLC.

  5. Continuity of Accelerator Operations during an Extended Pandemic

    Noel Okay

    2010-01-01

    The Operations group for the Continuous Electron Accelerator Facility in Newport News Virginia has developed a Continuity of Operations plan for pandemic conditions when high absenteeism may impact accelerator control room operations. Protocols to address both the potential spread of illnesses in the control room environment as well as maintaining minimum staffing requirements for contiguous accelerator operation will be presented. During acute pandemic conditions local government restrictions may prevent continued operations but during extended periods of high absenteeism accelerator operations can continue when some added precautionary measures and staffing adjustments are made in the way business is done.

  6. Hybrid Analysis of Blue Water Consumption and Water Scarcity Implications at the Global, National, and Basin Levels in an Increasingly Globalized World.

    Wang, Ranran; Zimmerman, Julie

    2016-05-17

    As the fifth global water footprint assessment, this study enhanced previous estimates of national blue water consumption (including fresh surface and groundwater) and main economic activities with (1) improved spatial and sectoral resolution and (2) quantified the impacts of virtual water trade on water use and water stress at both the national and basin level. In 2007, 1194 Gm(3) of blue water was consumed globally for human purposes. The consuming (producing) of primary and manufactured goods and services from the sectors of "Primary Crops and Livestock", "Primary Energy and Minerals", "Processed Food and Beverages", "Non-food Manufactured Products", "Electricity", "Commercial and Public Services", and "Households" accounted for 33% (91%), ∼ 0% (1%), 37% (water consumption, respectively. The considerable differences in sectoral water consumption accounted for by the two perspectives (consumption- vs production-based) highlight the significance of the water consumed indirectly, upstream in the supply chain (i.e., > 70% of total blue water consumption) while offering additional insights into the water implications of critical interconnected economic activities, such as the water-energy nexus. With 145 Gm(3) (12%) of the blue water consumption embedded in the goods and services traded internationally, 89 countries analyzed were net blue water importers at the national level. On the basin level, the impacts of virtual water trade on water stress were statistically significant for basins across the world and within 104 countries; virtual water trade mitigated water stress for the basins within 85 of the 104 countries, including all of those where there are moderate and greater water stress countrywide (except Italy).

  7. Consequences of increasing bioenergy demand on wood and forests: An application of the Global Forest Products Model

    Buongiorno, J.; Raunikar, R.; Zhu, S.

    2011-01-01

    The Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) was applied to project the consequences for the global forest sector of doubling the rate of growth of bioenergy demand relative to a base scenario, other drivers being maintained constant. The results showed that this would lead to the convergence of the price of fuelwood and industrial roundwood, raising the price of industrial roundwood by nearly 30% in 2030. The price of sawnwood and panels would be 15% higher. The price of paper would be 3% higher. Concurrently, the demand for all manufactured wood products would be lower in all countries, but the production would rise in countries with competitive advantage. The global value added in wood processing industries would be 1% lower in 2030. The forest stock would be 2% lower for the world and 4% lower for Asia. These effects varied substantially by country. ?? 2011 Department of Forest Economics, SLU Ume??, Sweden.

  8. Adaptation of high-growth influenza H5N1 vaccine virus in Vero cells: implications for pandemic preparedness.

    Yu-Fen Tseng

    Full Text Available Current egg-based influenza vaccine production technology can't promptly meet the global demand during an influenza pandemic as shown in the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. Moreover, its manufacturing capacity would be vulnerable during pandemics caused by highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses. Therefore, vaccine production using mammalian cell technology is becoming attractive. Current influenza H5N1 vaccine strain (NIBRG-14, a reassortant virus between A/Vietnam/1194/2004 (H5N1 virus and egg-adapted high-growth A/PR/8/1934 virus, could grow efficiently in eggs and MDCK cells but not Vero cells which is the most popular cell line for manufacturing human vaccines. After serial passages and plaque purifications of the NIBRG-14 vaccine virus in Vero cells, one high-growth virus strain (Vero-15 was generated and can grow over 10(8 TCID(50/ml. In conclusion, one high-growth H5N1 vaccine virus was generated in Vero cells, which can be used to manufacture influenza H5N1 vaccines and prepare reassortant vaccine viruses for other influenza A subtypes.

  9. Impact of cytokine in type 1 narcolepsy: Role of pandemic H1N1 vaccination ?

    Lecendreux, Michel; Libri, Valentina; Jaussent, Isabelle; Mottez, Estelle; Lopez, Régis; Lavault, Sophie; Regnault, Armelle; Arnulf, Isabelle; Dauvilliers, Yves

    2015-06-01

    Recent advances in the identification of susceptibility genes and environmental exposures (pandemic influenza 2009 vaccination) provide strong support that narcolepsy type 1 is an immune-mediated disease. Considering the limited knowledge regarding the immune mechanisms involved in narcolepsy whether related to flu vaccination or not and the recent progresses in cytokine measurement technology, we assessed 30 cytokines, chemokines and growth factors using the Luminex technology in either peripheral (serum) or central (CSF) compartments in a large population of 90 children and adult patients with narcolepsy type 1 in comparison to 58 non-hypocretin deficient hypersomniacs and 41 healthy controls. Furthermore, we compared their levels in patients with narcolepsy whether exposed to pandemic flu vaccine or not, and analyzed the effect of age, duration of disease and symptom severity. Comparison for sera biomarkers between narcolepsy (n = 84, 54 males, median age: 15.5 years old) and healthy controls (n = 41, 13 males, median age: 20 years old) revealed an increased stimulation of the immune system with high release of several pro- and anti-inflammatory serum cytokines and growth factors with interferon-γ, CCL11, epidermal growth factor, and interleukin-2 receptor being independently associated with narcolepsy. Increased levels of interferon-γ, CCL11, and interleukin-12 were found when close to narcolepsy onset. After several adjustments, only one CSF biomarker differed between narcolepsy (n = 44, 26 males, median age: 15 years old) and non-hypocretin deficient hypersomnias (n = 57, 24 males, median age: 36 years old) with higher CCL 3 levels found in narcolepsy. Comparison for sera biomarkers between patients with narcolepsy who developed the disease post-pandemic flu vaccination (n = 36) to those without vaccination (n = 48) revealed an increased stimulation of the immune system with high release of three cytokines, regulated upon activation normal T-cell expressed

  10. Potential impact on the global atmospheric N2O budget of the increased nitrogen input required to meet future global food demands

    Mosier, A.; Kroeze, C.

    2000-01-01

    In most soils, biogenic formation of N2O is enhanced by an increase in available mineral N through increased nitrification and denitrification. N-fertilization, therefore, directly results in additional N2O formation. In addition, these inputs may lead to indirect formation of N2O after N leaching

  11. The Evaluations of Swine Flu Magnitudes in TV News: A Comparative Analysis of Paired Influenza Pandemics.

    Pan, Po-Lin; Meng, Juan

    2015-01-01

    This study examined how major TV news networks covered two flu pandemics in 1976 and 2009 in terms of news frames, mortality exemplars, mortality subject attributes, vaccination, evaluation approaches, and news sources. Results showed that the first pandemic was frequently framed with the medical/scientific and political/legal issues, while the second pandemic was emphasized with the health risk issue in TV news. Both flu pandemics were regularly reported with mortality exemplars, but the focus in the first pandemic was on the flu virus threat and vaccination side effects, while the vaccination shortage was frequently revealed in the second outbreak.

  12. Evaluating the Research Quality of Education Journals in China: Implications for Increasing Global Impact in Peripheral Countries

    Zhao, Juanjuan; Beckett, Gulbahar H.; Wang, Lihshing Leigh

    2017-01-01

    There has been a rapid growth of academic research and publishing in non-Western countries. However, academic journal articles in these peripheral countries suffer from low citation impact and limited global recognition. This critical review systematically analyzed 1,096 education research journal articles that were published in China in a 10-year…

  13. Argumentation as a Strategy for Increasing Preservice Teachers' Understanding of Climate Change, a Key Global Socioscientific Issue

    Lambert, Julie L.; Bleicher, Robert E.

    2017-01-01

    Findings of this study suggest that scientific argumentation can play an effective role in addressing complex socioscientific issues (i.e. global climate change). This research examined changes in preservice teachers' knowledge and perceptions about climate change in an innovative undergraduate-level elementary science methods course. The…

  14. Hospitalizations Associated with Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1) 2009 in Asthmatic Children in Japan

    Toshio Katsunuma; Takehiko Matsui; Tsutomu Iwata; Mitsuhiko Nambu; Naomi Kondo

    2012-01-01

    Background: The pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 [pdm (H1N1) 2009] spread through the world in 2009, producing a serious epidemic in Japan. Since it was suggested early that asthma is a risk factor for an increased severity of the infection, the Japanese Society of Pediatric Allergy and Clinical Immunology (JSPACI) organized a working group for countermeasures, and investigated asthmatic children admitted to the hospitals for pdm (H1N1) 2009 infection. Methods: An appeal was made on the ho...

  15. Immune response after one or two doses of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) monovalent, AS03-adjuvanted vaccine in HIV infected adults

    Bybeck Nielsen, Allan; Nielsen, Henriette Schjønning; Nielsen, Lars

    2012-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Continued research is needed to evaluate and improve the immunogenicity of influenza vaccines in HIV infected patients. We aimed to determine the antibody responses after one or two doses of the AS03-adjuvanted pandemic influenza A (H1N1) vaccine in HIV infected patients. METHOD......: Following the influenza season 2009/2010, 219 HIV infected patients were included and divided into three groups depending on whether they received none (n=60), one (n=31) or two (n=128) doses of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) vaccine. At inclusion, antibody titers for all patients were analyzed and compared...... to pre-pandemic antibody titers analyzed from serum samples in a local storage facility. RESULTS: 4-9 months after a single immunization, we found a seroprotection rate of 77.4% and seroconversion rate of 67.7%. After two immunizations the rates increased significantly to seroprotection rate of 97...

  16. Responding to the Pandemic of Falsified Medicines

    Nayyar, Gaurvika M. L.; Attaran, Amir; Clark, John P.; Culzoni, M. Julia; Fernandez, Facundo M.; Herrington, James E.; Kendall, Megan; Newton, Paul N.; Breman, Joel G.

    2015-01-01

    Over the past decade, the number of countries reporting falsified (fake, spurious/falsely labeled/counterfeit) medicines and the types and quantities of fraudulent drugs being distributed have increased greatly. The obstacles in combating falsified pharmaceuticals include 1) lack of consensus on definitions, 2) paucity of reliable and scalable technology to detect fakes before they reach patients, 3) poor global and national leadership and accountability systems for combating this scourge, and 4) deficient manufacturing and regulatory challenges, especially in China and India where fake products often originate. The major needs to improve the quality of the world's medicines fall into three main areas: 1) research to develop and compare accurate and affordable tools to identify high-quality drugs at all levels of distribution; 2) an international convention and national legislation to facilitate production and utilization of high-quality drugs and protect all countries from the criminal and the negligent who make, distribute, and sell life-threatening products; and 3) a highly qualified, well-supported international science and public health organization that will establish standards, drug-quality surveillance, and training programs like the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. Such leadership would give authoritative guidance for countries in cooperation with national medical regulatory agencies, pharmaceutical companies, and international agencies, all of which have an urgent interest and investment in ensuring that patients throughout the world have access to good quality medicines. The organization would also advocate strongly for including targets for achieving good quality medicines in the United Nations Millennium Development Goals and Sustainable Development Goals. PMID:25897060

  17. The Benefits and Risks of Pandemic Influenza Vaccines

    E.G. Wijnans (Leonoor)

    2015-01-01

    markdownabstractIn 2009 and 2010 the world experienced the first influenza pandemic of the 21st century. As the new influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus spread across the world, vaccines were being produced and licensed at an unprecedented scale and speed. In Europe, adjuvanted and non-adjuvanted H1N1pdm09

  18. Acceptance of vaccinations in pandemic outbreaks: A discrete choice experiment

    D. Determann (Domino); I.J. Korfage (Ida); A.C. Lambooij (Antoinette); M.C.J. Bliemer (Michiel); J.H. Richardus (Jan Hendrik); E.W. Steyerberg (Ewout); E.W. de Bekker-Grob (Esther)

    2014-01-01

    textabstractBackground: Preventive measures are essential to limit the spread of new viruses; their uptake is key to their success. However, the vaccination uptake in pandemic outbreaks is often low. We aim to elicit how disease and vaccination characteristics determine preferences of the general

  19. Highlight: Dr David Butler-Jones on fighting pandemics | CRDI ...

    15 avr. 2016 ... Dr David Butler-Jones, professor in the Faculty of Medicine at the University of Manitoba and former Chief Medical Health Officer of Canada, delivered a lecture on lessons learned from the 2009 flu pandemic in Canada. He also commented on India's draft National Health Policy 2015 at the India ...

  20. Finding optimal vaccination strategies for pandemic influenza using genetic algorithms.

    Patel, Rajan; Longini, Ira M; Halloran, M Elizabeth

    2005-05-21

    In the event of pandemic influenza, only limited supplies of vaccine may be available. We use stochastic epidemic simulations, genetic algorithms (GA), and random mutation hill climbing (RMHC) to find optimal vaccine distributions to minimize the number of illnesses or deaths in the population, given limited quantities of vaccine. Due to the non-linearity, complexity and stochasticity of the epidemic process, it is not possible to solve for optimal vaccine distributions mathematically. However, we use GA and RMHC to find near optimal vaccine distributions. We model an influenza pandemic that has age-specific illness attack rates similar to the Asian pandemic in 1957-1958 caused by influenza A(H2N2), as well as a distribution similar to the Hong Kong pandemic in 1968-1969 caused by influenza A(H3N2). We find the optimal vaccine distributions given that the number of doses is limited over the range of 10-90% of the population. While GA and RMHC work well in finding optimal vaccine distributions, GA is significantly more efficient than RMHC. We show that the optimal vaccine distribution found by GA and RMHC is up to 84% more effective than random mass vaccination in the mid range of vaccine availability. GA is generalizable to the optimization of stochastic model parameters for other infectious diseases and population structures.

  1. Influenza: the next pandemic?: a review | Adungo, | East African ...

    Due to the diversity of susceptible reservoirs of influenza viruses and the interspecies transmission recently reported, a mutated strain of the virus to which people have no immunity could cause an influenza pandemic once the virus gains efficient and sustained human-to-human transmission. The fear that avian influenza ...

  2. Avian influenza A viruses: From zoonosis to pandemic

    M. Richard (Mathilde); M.T. de Graaf (Marieke); S. Herfst (Sander)

    2014-01-01

    textabstractZoonotic influenza A viruses originating from the animal reservoir pose a threat for humans, as they have the ability to trigger pandemics upon adaptation to and invasion of an immunologically naive population. Of particular concern are the H5N1 viruses that continue to circulate in

  3. Deciphering the Swine-Flu Pandemics of 1918 and 2009

    Goldstein, Richard; Dos Reis, Mario; Tamuri, Asif; Hay, Alan

    The devastating "Spanish flu" of 1918 killed an estimated 50 million people worldwide, ranking it as the deadliest pandemic in recorded human history. It is generally believed that the virus transferred from birds directly to humans shortly before the start of the pandemic, subsequently jumping from humans to swine. By developing 'non-homogeneous' substitution models that consider that substitution patterns may be different in human, avian, and swine hosts, we can determine the timing of the host shift to mammals. We find it likely that the Spanish flu of 1918, like the current 2009 pandemic, was a 'swine-origin' influenza virus. Now that we are faced with a new pandemic, can we understand how influenza is able to change hosts? Again by modelling the evolutionary process, considering the different selective constraints for viruses in the different hosts, we can identify locations that seem to be under different selective constraints in humans and avian hosts. This allows us to identify changes that may have facilitated the establishment of the 2009 swine-origin flu in humans.

  4. Considerable progress in European preparations for a potential influenza pandemic.

    Paget, J.

    2005-01-01

    The threat of an influenza pandemic has been heightened in the past two years by outbreaks of avian influenza concentrated in South East Asia which have resulted in human deaths. So far, the avian influenza virus seems difficult to transmit from human to human, but changes in the virus genome may

  5. Pneumococcal Pneumonia and Pandemic H1N1

    2012-06-06

    Dr. George Nelson, a CDC medical officer, discusses the relationship between pneumococcal pneumonia and Pandemic H1N1.  Created: 6/6/2012 by National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (NCEZID).   Date Released: 6/6/2012.

  6. Potential of Complementary and Alternative Medicine in Preventive Management of Novel H1N1 Flu (Swine Flu Pandemic: Thwarting Potential Disasters in the Bud

    Rajesh Arora

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The emergence of novel H1N1 has posed a situation that warrants urgent global attention. Though antiviral drugs are available in mainstream medicine for treating symptoms of swine flu, currently there is no preventive medicine available. Even when available, they would be in short supply and ineffective in a pandemic situation, for treating the masses worldwide. Besides the development of drug resistance, emergence of mutant strains of the virus, emergence of a more virulent strain, prohibitive costs of available drugs, time lag between vaccine developments, and mass casualties would pose difficult problems. In view of this, complementary and alternative medicine (CAM offers a plethora of interesting preventive possibilities in patients. Herbs exhibit a diverse array of biological activities and can be effectively harnessed for managing pandemic flu. Potentially active herbs can serve as effective anti influenza agents. The role of CAM for managing novel H1N1 flu and the mode of action of these botanicals is presented here in an evidence-based approach that can be followed to establish their potential use in the management of influenza pandemics. The complementary and alternative medicine approach deliberated in the paper should also be useful in treating the patients with serious influenza in non pandemic situations.

  7. Dialogical Self Theory and the increasing multiplicity of I-positions in a globalizing society: an introduction.

    Hermans, Hubert J M

    2012-01-01

    Dialogical Self Theory is a recent development in the social sciences, based on a conception of the self as a society of mind. In this conception, the self is considered as extended to significant others in the environment, who populate the self as a dynamic multiplicity of I-positions between which dialogical or monological relationships may emerge. While from a spatial perspective the self is engaged in a process of positioning and counterpositioning in a globalizing society, from a temporal point of view the self is part of a process of positioning and repositioning in collective history and personal development. Some phenomena that are necessary for the understanding of the dialogical self are discussed: dominance and social power, the processes of globalization and localization, the experience of uncertainty and possible reactions to uncertainty in a globalizing world. Finally, the different contributions of this special issue are placed in the context of the presented conceptual framework. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc., A Wiley Company.

  8. Detecting Climate Signals in Precipitation Extremes from TRMM (1998-2013) - Increasing Contrast Between Wet and Dry Extremes During the "Global Warming Hiatus"

    Wu, Huey-Tzu Jenny; Lau, William K.-M.

    2016-01-01

    We investigate changes in daily precipitation extremes using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data (1998-2013), which coincides with the "global warming hiatus." Results show a change in probability distribution functions of local precipitation events (LPEs) during this period consistent with previous global warming studies, indicating increasing contrast between wet and dry extremes, with more intense LPE, less moderate LPE, and more dry (no rain) days globally. Analyses for land and ocean separately reveal more complex and nuanced changes over land, characterized by a strong positive trend (+12.0% per decade, 99% confidence level (c.l.)) in frequency of extreme LPEs over the Northern Hemisphere extratropics during the wet season but a negative global trend (-6.6% per decade, 95% c.l.) during the dry season. A significant global drying trend (3.2% per decade, 99% c.l.) over land is also found during the dry season. Regions of pronounced increased dry events include western and central U.S., northeastern Asia, and Southern Europe/Mediterranean.

  9. Acceptance of vaccinations in pandemic outbreaks: a discrete choice experiment.

    Determann, Domino; Korfage, Ida J; Lambooij, Mattijs S; Bliemer, Michiel; Richardus, Jan Hendrik; Steyerberg, Ewout W; de Bekker-Grob, Esther W

    2014-01-01

    Preventive measures are essential to limit the spread of new viruses; their uptake is key to their success. However, the vaccination uptake in pandemic outbreaks is often low. We aim to elicit how disease and vaccination characteristics determine preferences of the general public for new pandemic vaccinations. In an internet-based discrete choice experiment (DCE) a representative sample of 536 participants (49% participation rate) from the Dutch population was asked for their preference for vaccination programs in hypothetical communicable disease outbreaks. We used scenarios based on two disease characteristics (susceptibility to and severity of the disease) and five vaccination program characteristics (effectiveness, safety, advice regarding vaccination, media attention, and out-of-pocket costs). The DCE design was based on a literature review, expert interviews and focus group discussions. A panel latent class logit model was used to estimate which trade-offs individuals were willing to make. All above mentioned characteristics proved to influence respondents' preferences for vaccination. Preference heterogeneity was substantial. Females who stated that they were never in favor of vaccination made different trade-offs than males who stated that they were (possibly) willing to get vaccinated. As expected, respondents preferred and were willing to pay more for more effective vaccines, especially if the outbreak was more serious (€6-€39 for a 10% more effective vaccine). Changes in effectiveness, out-of-pocket costs and in the body that advises the vaccine all substantially influenced the predicted uptake. We conclude that various disease and vaccination program characteristics influence respondents' preferences for pandemic vaccination programs. Agencies responsible for preventive measures during pandemics can use the knowledge that out-of-pocket costs and the way advice is given affect vaccination uptake to improve their plans for future pandemic outbreaks

  10. Acceptance of vaccinations in pandemic outbreaks: a discrete choice experiment.

    Domino Determann

    Full Text Available Preventive measures are essential to limit the spread of new viruses; their uptake is key to their success. However, the vaccination uptake in pandemic outbreaks is often low. We aim to elicit how disease and vaccination characteristics determine preferences of the general public for new pandemic vaccinations.In an internet-based discrete choice experiment (DCE a representative sample of 536 participants (49% participation rate from the Dutch population was asked for their preference for vaccination programs in hypothetical communicable disease outbreaks. We used scenarios based on two disease characteristics (susceptibility to and severity of the disease and five vaccination program characteristics (effectiveness, safety, advice regarding vaccination, media attention, and out-of-pocket costs. The DCE design was based on a literature review, expert interviews and focus group discussions. A panel latent class logit model was used to estimate which trade-offs individuals were willing to make.All above mentioned characteristics proved to influence respondents' preferences for vaccination. Preference heterogeneity was substantial. Females who stated that they were never in favor of vaccination made different trade-offs than males who stated that they were (possibly willing to get vaccinated. As expected, respondents preferred and were willing to pay more for more effective vaccines, especially if the outbreak was more serious (€6-€39 for a 10% more effective vaccine. Changes in effectiveness, out-of-pocket costs and in the body that advises the vaccine all substantially influenced the predicted uptake.We conclude that various disease and vaccination program characteristics influence respondents' preferences for pandemic vaccination programs. Agencies responsible for preventive measures during pandemics can use the knowledge that out-of-pocket costs and the way advice is given affect vaccination uptake to improve their plans for future pandemic

  11. Genome assortment, not serogroup, defines Vibrio cholerae pandemic strains

    Brettin, Thomas S [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Bruce, David C [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Challacombe, Jean F [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Detter, John C [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Han, Cliff S [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Munik, A C [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Chertkov, Olga [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Meincke, Linda [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Saunders, Elizabeth [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Choi, Seon Y [SEOUL NATL. UNIV.; Haley, Bradd J [U. MARYLAND; Taviani, Elisa [U. MARYLAND; Jeon, Yoon - Seong [INTL. VACCINE INST. SEOUL; Kim, Dong Wook [INTL. VACCINE INST. SEOUL; Lee, Jae - Hak [SEOUL NATL. UNIV.; Walters, Ronald A [PNNL; Hug, Anwar [NATL. INST. CHOLERIC ENTERIC DIS.; Colwell, Rita R [U. MARYLAND

    2009-01-01

    Vibrio cholerae, the causative agent of cholera, is a bacterium autochthonous to the aquatic environment, and a serious public health threat. V. cholerae serogroup O1 is responsible for the previous two cholera pandemics, in which classical and El Tor biotypes were dominant in the 6th and the current 7th pandemics, respectively. Cholera researchers continually face newly emerging and re-emerging pathogenic clones carrying combinations of new serogroups as well as of phenotypic and genotypic properties. These genotype and phenotype changes have hampered control of the disease. Here we compare the complete genome sequences of 23 strains of V. cholerae isolated from a variety of sources and geographical locations over the past 98 years in an effort to elucidate the evolutionary mechanisms governing genetic diversity and genesis of new pathogenic clones. The genome-based phylogeny revealed 12 distinct V. cholerae phyletic lineages, of which one, designated the V. cholerae core genome (CG), comprises both O1 classical and EI Tor biotypes. All 7th pandemic clones share nearly identical gene content, i.e., the same genome backbone. The transition from 6th to 7th pandemic strains is defined here as a 'shift' between pathogenic clones belonging to the same O1 serogroup, but from significantly different phyletic lineages within the CG clade. In contrast, transition among clones during the present 7th pandemic period can be characterized as a 'drift' between clones, differentiated mainly by varying composition of laterally transferred genomic islands, resulting in emergence of variants, exemplified by V.cholerae serogroup O139 and V.cholerae O1 El Tor hybrid clones that produce cholera toxin of classical biotype. Based on the comprehensive comparative genomics presented in this study it is concluded that V. cholerae undergoes extensive genetic recombination via lateral gene transfer, and, therefore, genome assortment, not serogroup, should be used to

  12. Community Assessment Tool for Public Health Emergencies Including Pandemic Influenza

    HCTT-CHE

    2011-04-14

    The Community Assessment Tool (CAT) for Public Health Emergencies Including Pandemic Influenza (hereafter referred to as the CAT) was developed as a result of feedback received from several communities. These communities participated in workshops focused on influenza pandemic planning and response. The 2008 through 2011 workshops were sponsored by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Feedback during those workshops indicated the need for a tool that a community can use to assess its readiness for a disaster—readiness from a total healthcare perspective, not just hospitals, but the whole healthcare system. The CAT intends to do just that—help strengthen existing preparedness plans by allowing the healthcare system and other agencies to work together during an influenza pandemic. It helps reveal each core agency partners' (sectors) capabilities and resources, and highlights cases of the same vendors being used for resource supplies (e.g., personal protective equipment [PPE] and oxygen) by the partners (e.g., public health departments, clinics, or hospitals). The CAT also addresses gaps in the community's capabilities or potential shortages in resources. While the purpose of the CAT is to further prepare the community for an influenza pandemic, its framework is an extension of the traditional all-hazards approach to planning and preparedness. As such, the information gathered by the tool is useful in preparation for most widespread public health emergencies. This tool is primarily intended for use by those involved in healthcare emergency preparedness (e.g., community planners, community disaster preparedness coordinators, 9-1-1 directors, hospital emergency preparedness coordinators). It is divided into sections based on the core agency partners, which may be involved in the community's influenza pandemic influenza response.

  13. Synchrony of Pandemics, Fire Reduction, and Reforestation in the Tropical Americas With Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Changes During European Conquest

    Nevle, R. J.; Bird, D. K.

    2007-12-01

    charcoal records beginning at 2000 years BP correlates with expanding indigenous population, agriculture, and fire use in the tropical Americas. The rise in inter-site variability in charcoal accumulation after 2000 years BP is consistent with a demographic shift toward sedentary agrarian communities and localized increases in charcoal accumulation in densely populated centers. The declines in regional charcoal accumulation and inter-site variability after 500 years BP suggest a correlative cause related to reduction in anthropogenic biomass burning resulting from pandemic-driven population collapse. Published reconstructions of Pre-Columbian demography indicate that during European conquest, pandemics killed ~90% of the indigenous American population (~60 million), estimated to represent ~20% of the 16th century global population. Our predictive calculations suggest that fire reduction in the tropical Americas indicated in the charcoal record is associated with massive forest regeneration on ~1 x 106 km2 of land and sequestration of >10 Gt C into the terrestrial biosphere, which contributed to the ~2% global reduction in atmospheric CO2 levels and the 0.1‰ increase in δ13C of atmospheric CO2 from 1500 to 1700 A.D. recorded in Antarctic ice cores and tropical sponges.

  14. Effects of Syn-pandemic Fire Reduction and Reforestation in the Tropical Americas on Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide During European Conquest

    Nevle, R. J.; Bird, D. K.

    2008-12-01

    2000 BP correlate with expanding indigenous population, agriculture, and fire use in the tropical Americas. The rise in inter-site variability in charcoal accumulation after 2000 BP is consistent with a demographic shift toward sedentary agrarian communities and localized increases in charcoal accumulation in densely populated centers. Declines in regional charcoal accumulation and inter-site variability after 500 BP suggest a correlative cause related to reduction in anthropogenic biomass burning resulting from pandemic-driven population collapse. Published reconstructions of Pre-Columbian demography indicate that during European conquest, pandemics killed ~90% of the indigenous American population (~60 million), estimated to represent ~20% of the 16th century global population. Our predictive calculations suggest that fire reduction in the tropical Americas is associated with massive forest regeneration on ~5 x 105 km2 of land and sequestration of 5-10 Gt C into the terrestrial biosphere, which can account for 13- 50% of the ~2% global reduction in atmospheric CO2 levels and the 0.1‰ increase in δ13C of atmospheric CO2 from 1500 to 1700 CE recorded in Antarctic ice cores and tropical sponges. New archeological discoveries revealing extensive networks of geoglyphs and urban polities in Pre-Columbian Amazonia suggest that our estimates of reforestation, and consequent effects on atmospheric CO2, may be conservative.

  15. Treatment and Prevention of Pandemic H1N1 Influenza.

    Rewar, Suresh; Mirdha, Dashrath; Rewar, Prahlad

    2015-01-01

    Swine influenza is a respiratory infection common to pigs worldwide caused by type A influenza viruses, principally subtypes H1N1, H1N2, H2N1, H3N1, H3N2, and H2N3. Swine influenza viruses also can cause moderate to severe illness in humans and affect persons of all age groups. People in close contact with swine are at especially high risk. Until recently, epidemiological study of influenza was limited to resource-rich countries. The World Health Organization declared an H1N1 pandemic on June 11, 2009, after more than 70 countries reported 30,000 cases of H1N1 infection. In 2015, incidence of swine influenza increased substantially to reach a 5-year high. In India in 2015, 10,000 cases of swine influenza were reported with 774 deaths. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommend real-time polymerase chain reaction as the method of choice for diagnosing H1N1. Antiviral drugs are the mainstay of clinical treatment of swine influenza and can make the illness milder and enable the patient to feel better faster. Antiviral drugs are most effective when they are started within the first 48 hours after the clinical signs begin, although they also may be used in severe or high-risk cases first seen after this time. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends use of oseltamivir (Tamiflu, Genentech) or zanamivir (Relenza, GlaxoSmithKline). Prevention of swine influenza has 3 components: prevention in swine, prevention of transmission to humans, and prevention of its spread among humans. Because of limited treatment options, high risk for secondary infection, and frequent need for intensive care of individuals with H1N1 pneumonia, environmental control, including vaccination of high-risk populations and public education are critical to control of swine influenza out breaks. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Twitter influence on vaccination and antiviral uptake during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic.

    Andrew eMcNeill

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available ObjectiveInformation exchange via Twitter and other forms of social media make public health communication more complex as citizens play an increasingly influential role in shaping acceptable or desired health behaviours. Taking the case of the 2009-10 H1N1 pandemic, we explore in detail the dissemination of H1N1-related advice in the UK through Twitter to see how it was used to discourage or encourage vaccine and antiviral uptake.MethodsIn three stages we conducted (1 an analysis of general content, retweeting patterns and URL sharing, (2 a discourse analysis of the public evaluation of press releases and (3 a template analysis of conversations around vaccine and antiviral uptake, using Protection Motivation Theory (PMT as a way of understanding how the public weighed the costs and benefits.ResultsNetwork analysis of retweets showed that information from official sources predominated. Analysing the spread of significant messages through Twitter showed that most content was descriptive but there was some criticism of health authorities. A detailed analysis of responses to press releases revealed some scepticism over the economic beneficiaries of vaccination, that served to undermine public trust. Finally, the conversational analysis showed the influence of peers when weighing up the risks and benefits of medication.ConclusionsMost tweets linked to reliable sources, however Twitter was used to discuss both individual and health authority motivations to vaccinate. The PMT framework describes the ways individuals assessed the threat of the H1N1 pandemic, weighing this against the perceived cost of taking medication. These findings offer some valuable insights for social media communication practices in future pandemics.

  17. Occupational health impact of the 2009 H1N1 flu pandemic: surveillance of sickness absence.

    Torá-Rocamora, Isabel; Delclos, George L; Martínez, José Miguel; Jardí, Josefina; Alberti, Constança; Manzanera, Rafael; Yasui, Yutaka; Clèries, Ramón; Tobías, Aurelio; Benavides, Fernando G

    2012-03-01

    Workplace absences due to illness can disrupt usual operations and increase costs for businesses. This study of sickness absence due to influenza and influenza-related illness presents a unique opportunity to characterise and measure the impact of the 2009 (H1N1) pandemic, by comparing trends during the pandemic to those of previous years, and adding this information to that obtained by traditional epidemiological surveillance systems. We compared the numbers of cases of sickness absence due to illness caused by influenza and influenza-related illness in 2007-2009, and in the first 3 months of 2010 in Catalonia (n=811 940) using a time series approach. Trends were examined by economic activity, age and gender. The weekly endemic-epidemic index (EEI) was calculated and its 95% CI obtained with the delta method, with observed and expected cases considered as independent random variables. Influenza activity peaked earlier in 2009 and yielded more cases than in previous years. Week 46 (in November 2009) had the highest number of new cases resulting in sickness absence (EEI 20.99; 95% CI 9.44 to 46.69). Women and the 'education, health and other social activities' sector were the most affected. Results indicate that the new H1N1 pandemic had a significant impact on business, with shifts in the timing of peak incidence, a doubling in the number of cases, and changes in the distribution of cases by economic activity sector and gender. Traditional epidemiological surveillance systems could benefit from the addition of information based on sickness absence data.

  18. Regulating the 1918-19 pandemic: flu, stoicism and the Northcliffe press.

    Honigsbaum, Mark

    2013-04-01

    Social historians have argued that the reason the 1918–19 ‘Spanish’ influenza left so few traces in public memory is that it was ‘overshadowed’ by the First World War, hence its historiographical characterisation as the ‘forgotten’ pandemic. This paper argues that such an approach tends to overlook the crucial role played by wartime propaganda. Instead, I put emotion words, emotives and metaphors at the heart of my analysis in an attempt to understand the interplay between propaganda and biopolitical discourses that aimed to regulate civilian responses to the pandemic. Drawing on the letters of Wilfred Owen, the diaries of the cultural historian Caroline Playne and the reporting in the Northcliffe press, I argue that the stoicism exhibited by Owen and amplified in the columns of The Times and the Daily Mail is best viewed as a performance, an emotional style that reflected the politicisation of ‘dread’ in war as an emotion with the potential to undermine civilian morale. This was especially the case during the final year of the conflict when war-weariness set in, leading to the stricter policing of negative emotions. As a protean disease that could present as alternately benign and plague-like, the Spanish flu both drew on these discourses and subverted them, disrupting medical efforts to use the dread of foreign pathogens as an instrument of biopower. The result was that, as dread increasingly became attached to influenza, it destabilised medical attempts to regulate the civilian response to the pandemic, undermining Owen’s and the Northcliffe press’s emotives of stoicism.

  19. Mortality burden of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in France: comparison to seasonal influenza and the A/H3N2 pandemic.

    Magali Lemaitre

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The mortality burden of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic remains unclear in many countries due to delays in reporting of death statistics. We estimate the age- and cause-specific excess mortality impact of the pandemic in France, relative to that of other countries and past epidemic and pandemic seasons. METHODS: We applied Serfling and Poisson excess mortality approaches to model weekly age- and cause-specific mortality rates from June 1969 through May 2010 in France. Indicators of influenza activity, time trends, and seasonal terms were included in the models. We also reviewed the literature for country-specific estimates of 2009 pandemic excess mortality rates to characterize geographical differences in the burden of this pandemic. RESULTS: The 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic was associated with 1.0 (95% Confidence Intervals (CI 0.2-1.9 excess respiratory deaths per 100,000 population in France, compared to rates per 100,000 of 44 (95% CI 43-45 for the A/H3N2 pandemic and 2.9 (95% CI 2.3-3.7 for average inter-pandemic seasons. The 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic had a 10.6-fold higher impact than inter-pandemic seasons in people aged 5-24 years and 3.8-fold lower impact among people over 65 years. CONCLUSIONS: The 2009 pandemic in France had low mortality impact in most age groups, relative to past influenza seasons, except in school-age children and young adults. The historical A/H3N2 pandemic was associated with much larger mortality impact than the 2009 pandemic, across all age groups and outcomes. Our 2009 pandemic excess mortality estimates for France fall within the range of previous estimates for high-income regions. Based on the analysis of several mortality outcomes and comparison with laboratory-confirmed 2009/H1N1 deaths, we conclude that cardio-respiratory and all-cause mortality lack precision to accurately measure the impact of this pandemic in high-income settings and that use of more specific mortality outcomes is important to obtain reliable

  20. Did pandemic preparedness aid the response to pandemic (H1N1) 2009? A qualitative analysis in seven countries within the WHO European Region.

    Hashim, Ahmed; Jean-Gilles, Lucie; Hegermann-Lindencrone, Michala; Shaw, Ian; Brown, Caroline; Nguyen-Van-Tam, Jonathan

    2012-08-01

    Although the 2009-2010 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic was of low severity compared with other pandemics of the 20th century, this pandemic was the first opportunity for countries to implement a real-life pandemic response. The aim of the project was to review the extent to which these plans and planning activities proved useful and to identify areas of pandemic planning that require further strengthening. We randomly selected seven countries within the WHO European Region to participate in a comprehensive, qualitative study to evaluate the pandemic preparedness activities undertaken prior to March 2009 compared with the subsequent pandemic responses mounted from May 2009 onwards. Research teams visited each country and interviewed stakeholders from health and civil response ministries, national public health authorities, regional authorities and family and hospital doctors. The following six consistent themes were identified as essential elements of successful pandemic preparedness activities: communication, coordination, capacity building, adaptability/flexibility, leadership and mutual support. Regarding future pandemic preparedness activities, an emphasis on these areas should be retained and planning for the following activities should be improved: communication (i.e., with the public and health professionals); coordination of vaccine procurement and logistics; flexibility of response and hospital surveillance. Pandemic preparedness activities were successfully undertaken in the WHO European Region prior to the 2009 pandemic. These activities proved to be effective and were generally appropriate for the response provided in 2009. Nevertheless, consistent themes also emerged regarding specific areas of under planning that were common to most of the surveyed countries. Copyright © 2012 King Saud Bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Increasing Potential Risk of a Global Aquatic Invader in Europe in Contrast to Other Continents under Future Climate Change

    Liu, Xuan; Guo, Zhongwei; Ke, Zunwei; Wang, Supen; Li, Yiming

    2011-01-01

    Background Anthropogenically-induced climate change can alter the current climatic habitat of non-native species and can have complex effects on potentially invasive species. Predictions of the potential distributions of invasive species under climate change will provide critical information for future conservation and management strategies. Aquatic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to invasive species and climate change, but the effect of climate change on invasive species distributions has been rather neglected, especially for notorious global invaders. Methodology/Principal Findings We used ecological niche models (ENMs) to assess the risks and opportunities that climate change presents for the red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii), which is a worldwide aquatic invasive species. Linking the factors of climate, topography, habitat and human influence, we developed predictive models incorporating both native and non-native distribution data of the crayfish to identify present areas of potential distribution and project the effects of future climate change based on a consensus-forecast approach combining the CCCMA and HADCM3 climate models under two emission scenarios (A2a and B2a) by 2050. The minimum temperature from the coldest month, the human footprint and precipitation of the driest quarter contributed most to the species distribution models. Under both the A2a and B2a scenarios, P. clarkii shifted to higher latitudes in continents of both the northern and southern hemispheres. However, the effect of climate change varied considerately among continents with an expanding potential in Europe and contracting changes in others. Conclusions/Significance Our findings are the first to predict the impact of climate change on the future distribution of a globally invasive aquatic species. We confirmed the complexities of the likely effects of climate change on the potential distribution of globally invasive species, and it is extremely important to develop

  2. Zika pandemic online trends, incidence and health risk communication: a time trend study.

    Adebayo, Gbenga; Neumark, Yehuda; Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat; Abu Ahmad, Wiessam; Levine, Hagai

    2017-01-01

    We aimed to describe the online search trends of Zika and examine their association with Zika incidence, assess the content of Zika-related press releases issued by leading health authorities and examine the association between online trends and press release timing. Using Google Trends, the 1 May 2015 to 30 May 2016 online trends of Zika and associated search terms were studied globally and in the five countries with the highest numbers of suspected cases. Correlations were then examined between online trends and Zika incidence in these countries. All Zika-related press releases issued by WHO/Pan America Health Organization (PAHO) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) during the study period were assessed for transparency, uncertainty and audience segmentation. Witte's Extended Parallel Process Model was applied to assess self-efficacy, response efficacy, susceptibility and severity. AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average with an eXogenous predictor variable (ARIMAX) (p,d,q) regression modelling was used to quantify the association between online trends and the timing of press releases. Globally, Zika online search trends were low until the beginning of 2016, when interest rose steeply. Strong correlations (r=0.748-0.922; ponline trends and the number of suspected Zika cases in four of the five countries studied. Compared with press releases issued by WHO/PAHO, CDC press releases were significantly more likely to provide contact details and links to other resources, include figures/graphs, be risk-advisory in nature and be more readable and briefer. ARIMAX modelling results indicate that online trends preceded by 1 week press releases by WHO (stationary-R 2 =0.345; ponline trends can aid in pandemic surveillance. Identification of shortcomings in the content and timing of Zika press releases can help guide health communication efforts in the current pandemic and future public health emergencies.

  3. Low adherence to influenza vaccination campaigns: is the H1N1 virus pandemic to be blamed?

    Trivellin Valeria

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Over the last few months, debates about the handling of the influenza virus A (H1N1 pandemic took place, in particular regarding the change of the WHO pandemic definition, economic interests, the dramatic communication style of mass media. The activation of plans to reduce the virus diffusion resulted in an important investment of resources. Were those investments proportionate to the risk? Was the pandemic overrated? The workload of the Pediatric Emergency Room (P.E.R. at a teaching hospital in Varese (Northern Italy was investigated in order to evaluate the local diffusion and severity of the new H1N1 influenza epidemic. Discussion A 100% increase of the number of P.E.R. visits, particularly for influenza-like illness, was recorded during weeks 42-46 of 2009 (October, 17 to November, 2; the low rate of hospitalization and the mild presentation of the infection gave rise to the conclusion that the pandemic risk was overrated. Mass media communications concerning the new virus created a disproportionate fear in the population that significantly enhanced the burden of cares at the hospital. In the absence of generally implemented measures for etiological diagnosis, the actual incidence of the H1N1 infection could not be estimated. Virus identification, in fact, was limited to children showing severe symptoms after consultancy with an infectious disease specialist. The alarming nature of the communication campaign and the choice to limit etiologic diagnosis to severe cases created a climate of uncertainty which significantly contributed to the massive admissions to the P.E.R.. Summary The communication strategy adopted by the mass media was an important element during the pandemic: the absence of clarity contributed to the spread of a pandemic phobia that appeared to result more from the sensationalism of the campaign than from infection with the novel influenza A variant of human, avian, swine origin virus. One relevant effect

  4. A small community model for the transmission of infectious diseases: comparison of school closure as an intervention in individual-based models of an influenza pandemic.

    George J Milne

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In the absence of other evidence, modelling has been used extensively to help policy makers plan for a potential future influenza pandemic. METHOD: We have constructed an individual based model of a small community in the developed world with detail down to exact household structure obtained from census collection datasets and precise simulation of household demographics, movement within the community and individual contact patterns. We modelled the spread of pandemic influenza in this community and the effect on daily and final attack rates of four social distancing measures: school closure, increased case isolation, workplace non-attendance and community contact reduction. We compared the modelled results of final attack rates in the absence of any interventions and the effect of school closure as a single intervention with other published individual based models of pandemic influenza in the developed world. RESULTS: We showed that published individual based models estimate similar final attack rates over a range of values for R(0 in a pandemic where no interventions have been implemented; that multiple social distancing measures applied early and continuously can be very effective in interrupting transmission of the pandemic virus for R(0 values up to 2.5; and that different conclusions reached on the simulated benefit of school closure in published models appear to result from differences in assumptions about the timing and duration of school closure and flow-on effects on other social contacts resulting from school closure. CONCLUSION: Models of the spread and control of pandemic influenza have the potential to assist policy makers with decisions about which control strategies to adopt. However, attention needs to be given by policy makers to the assumptions underpinning both the models and the control strategies examined.

  5. Health and economic benefits of early vaccination and nonpharmaceutical interventions for a human influenza A (H7N9) pandemic: a modeling study.

    Khazeni, Nayer; Hutton, David W; Collins, Cassandra I F; Garber, Alan M; Owens, Douglas K

    2014-05-20

    Vaccination for the 2009 pandemic did not occur until late in the outbreak, which limited its benefits. Influenza A (H7N9) is causing increasing morbidity and mortality in China, and researchers have modified the A (H5N1) virus to transmit via aerosol, which again heightens concerns about pandemic influenza preparedness. To determine how quickly vaccination should be completed to reduce infections, deaths, and health care costs in a pandemic with characteristics similar to influenza A (H7N9) and A (H5N1). Dynamic transmission model to estimate health and economic consequences of a severe influenza pandemic in a large metropolitan city. Literature and expert opinion. Residents of a U.S. metropolitan city with characteristics similar to New York City. Lifetime. Societal. Vaccination of 30% of the population at 4 or 6 months. Infections and deaths averted and cost-effectiveness. In 12 months, 48 254 persons would die. Vaccinating at 9 months would avert 2365 of these deaths. Vaccinating at 6 months would save 5775 additional lives and $51 million at a city level. Accelerating delivery to 4 months would save an additional 5633 lives and $50 million. If vaccination were delayed for 9 months, reducing contacts by 8% through nonpharmaceutical interventions would yield a similar reduction in infections and deaths as vaccination at 4 months. The model is not designed to evaluate programs targeting specific populations, such as children or persons with comorbid conditions. Vaccination in an influenza A (H7N9) pandemic would need to be completed much faster than in 2009 to substantially reduce morbidity, mortality, and health care costs. Maximizing non-pharmaceutical interventions can substantially mitigate the pandemic until a matched vaccine becomes available. Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, National Institutes of Health, and Department of Veterans Affairs.

  6. Reducing attentional capture of emotion by broadening attention: increased global attention reduces early electrophysiological responses to negative stimuli.

    Gable, Philip A; Harmon-Jones, Eddie

    2012-05-01

    Decades of research has shown the influence of emotion on attentional capture, and more recently, the influence of emotion on neurophysiological processes related to attentional capture. The current research tested whether some of the earliest neurophysiological underpinnings of emotive attentional processes can be influenced by attentional manipulations of broadening versus narrowing. Previous research has shown that negative affects high in motivational intensity (e.g., disgust, fear) cause a relative narrowing of attentional scope (Gable and Harmon-Jones, 2010a; Easterbrook, 1959). Because of the strong link between motivation and attention, attentional scope should also influence the attentional capture of negative stimuli. The current study manipulated a local attentional scope or global attentional scope, then measured attentional capture towards disgust and neutral pictures using the N1 event-related potential component. Results revealed that a manipulated global attentional scope reduced N1 amplitude towards disgust pictures compared to a manipulated local attentional scope. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Ethical considerations: care of the critically ill and injured during pandemics and disasters: CHEST consensus statement.

    Biddison, Lee Daugherty; Berkowitz, Kenneth A; Courtney, Brooke; De Jong, Col Marla J; Devereaux, Asha V; Kissoon, Niranjan; Roxland, Beth E; Sprung, Charles L; Dichter, Jeffrey R; Christian, Michael D; Powell, Tia

    2014-10-01

    Mass critical care entails time-sensitive decisions and changes in the standard of care that it is possible to deliver. These circumstances increase provider uncertainty as well as patients' vulnerability and may, therefore, jeopardize disciplined, ethical decision-making. Planning for pandemics and disasters should incorporate ethics guidance to support providers who may otherwise make ad hoc patient care decisions that overstep ethical boundaries. This article provides consensus-developed suggestions about ethical challenges in caring for the critically ill or injured during pandemics or disasters. The suggestions in this article are important for all of those involved in any pandemic or disaster with multiple critically ill or injured patients, including front-line clinicians, hospital administrators, and public health or government officials. We adapted the American College of Chest Physicians (CHEST) Guidelines Oversight Committee's methodology to develop suggestions. Twenty-four key questions were developed, and literature searches were conducted to identify evidence for suggestions. The detailed literature reviews produced 144 articles. Based on their expertise within this domain, panel members also supplemented the literature search with governmental publications, interdisciplinary workgroup consensus documents, and other information not retrieved through PubMed. The literature in this field is not suitable to support evidence-based recommendations. Therefore, the panel developed expert opinion-based suggestions using a modified Delphi process. We report the suggestions that focus on five essential domains: triage and allocation, ethical concerns of patients and families, ethical responsibilities to providers, conduct of research, and international concerns. Ethics issues permeate virtually all aspects of pandemic and disaster response. We have addressed some of the most pressing issues, focusing on five essential domains: triage and allocation, ethical

  8. Adaptation of Pandemic H1N1 Influenza Viruses in Mice▿

    Ilyushina, Natalia A.; Khalenkov, Alexey M.; Seiler, Jon P.; Forrest, Heather L.; Bovin, Nicolai V.; Marjuki, Henju; Barman, Subrata; Webster, Robert G.; Webby, Richard J.

    2010-01-01

    The molecular mechanism by which pandemic 2009 influenza A viruses were able to sufficiently adapt to humans is largely unknown. Subsequent human infections with novel H1N1 influenza viruses prompted an investigation of the molecular determinants of the host range and pathogenicity of pandemic influenza viruses in mammals. To address this problem, we assessed the genetic basis for increased virulence of A/CA/04/09 (H1N1) and A/TN/1-560/09 (H1N1) isolates, which are not lethal for mice, in a new mammalian host by promoting their mouse adaptation. The resulting mouse lung-adapted variants showed significantly enhanced growth characteristics in eggs, extended extrapulmonary tissue tropism, and pathogenicity in mice. All mouse-adapted viruses except A/TN/1-560/09-MA2 grew faster and to higher titers in cells than the original strains. We found that 10 amino acid changes in the ribonucleoprotein (RNP) complex (PB2 E158G/A, PA L295P, NP D101G, and NP H289Y) and hemagglutinin (HA) glycoprotein (K119N, G155E, S183P, R221K, and D222G) controlled enhanced mouse virulence of pandemic isolates. HA mutations acquired during adaptation affected viral receptor specificity by enhancing binding to α2,3 together with decreasing binding to α2,6 sialyl receptors. PB2 E158G/A and PA L295P amino acid substitutions were responsible for the significant enhancement of transcription and replication activity of the mouse-adapted H1N1 variants. Taken together, our findings suggest that changes optimizing receptor specificity and interaction of viral polymerase components with host cellular factors are the major mechanisms that contribute to the optimal competitive advantage of pandemic influenza viruses in mice. These modulators of virulence, therefore, may have been the driving components of early evolution, which paved the way for novel 2009 viruses in mammals. PMID:20592084

  9. Pandemic influenza – including a risk assessment of H5N1

    Taubenberger, J.K.; Morens, D.M.

    2009-01-01

    Summary Influenza pandemics and epidemics have apparently occurred since at least the Middle Ages. When pandemics appear, 50% or more of an affected population can be infected in a single year, and the number of deaths caused by influenza can dramatically exceed what is normally expected. Since 1500, there appear to have been 13 or more influenza pandemics. In the past 120 years there were undoubted pandemics in 1889, 1918, 1957, 1968, and 1977. Although most experts believe we will face another influenza pandemic, it is impossible to predict when it will appear, where it will originate, or how severe it will be. Nor is there agreement about the subtype of influenza virus most likely to cause the next pandemic. The continuing spread of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses has heightened interest in pandemic prediction. Despite uncertainties in the historical record of the pre-virology era, study of previous pandemics may help guide future pandemic planning and lead to a better understanding of the complex ecobiology underlying the formation of pandemic strains of influenza A viruses. PMID:19618626

  10. Pandemic influenza--including a risk assessment of H5N1.

    Taubenberger, J K; Morens, D M

    2009-04-01

    Influenza pandemics and epidemics have apparently occurred since at least the Middle Ages. When pandemics appear, 50% or more of an affected population can be infected in a single year, and the number of deaths caused by influenza can dramatically exceed what is normally expected. Since 1500, there appear to have been 13 or more influenza pandemics. In the past 120 years there were undoubted pandemics in 1889, 1918, 1957, 1968, and 1977. Although most experts believe we will face another influenza pandemic, it is impossible to predict when it will appear, where it will originate, or how severe it will be. Nor is there agreement about the subtype of influenza virus most likely to cause the next pandemic. The continuing spread of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses has heightened interest in pandemic prediction. Despite uncertainties in the historical record of the pre-virology era, study of previous pandemics may help guide future pandemic planning and lead to a better understanding of the complex ecobiology underlying the formation of pandemic strains of influenza A viruses.

  11. Duration of (18)F-FDG avidity in lymph nodes after pandemic H1N1v and seasonal influenza vaccination

    Thomassen, Anders; Lerberg Nielsen, Anne; Gerke, Oke

    2011-01-01

    PURPOSE: The aim of our study was to investigate the occurrence of fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) avidity in draining axillary lymph nodes after vaccination against influenza (H1N1v pandemic and seasonal) and to determine the period of increased FDG uptake. METHODS: During December 2009, patients...

  12. The 2009 A (H1N1) influenza virus pandemic: A review.

    Girard, Marc P; Tam, John S; Assossou, Olga M; Kieny, Marie Paule

    2010-07-12

    In March and early April 2009 a new swine-origin influenza virus (S-OIV), A (H1N1), emerged in Mexico and the USA. The virus quickly spread worldwide through human-to-human transmission. In view of the number of countries and communities which were reporting human cases, the World Health Organization raised the influenza pandemic alert to the highest level (level 6) on June 11, 2009. The propensity of the virus to primarily affect children, young adults and pregnant women, especially those with an underlying lung or cardiac disease condition, and the substantial increase in rate of hospitalizations, prompted the efforts of the pharmaceutical industry, including new manufacturers from China, Thailand, India and South America, to develop pandemic H1N1 influenza vaccines. All currently registered vaccines were tested for safety and immunogenicity in clinical trials on human volunteers. All were found to be safe and to elicit potentially protective antibody responses after the administration of a single dose of vaccine, including split inactivated vaccines with or without adjuvant, whole-virion vaccines and live-attenuated vaccines. The need for an increased surveillance of influenza virus circulation in swine is outlined. Copyright 2010. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  13. Efficacy of a pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus vaccine in pigs against the pandemic influenza virus is superior to commercially available swine influenza vaccines.

    Loeffen, W.L.A.; Stockhofe-Zurwieden, N.; Weesendorp, E.; Zoelen-Bos, van D.J.; Heutink, R.; Quak, J.; Goovaerts, D.; Heldens, J.; Maas, H.A.; Moormann, R.J.M.; Koch, G.

    2011-01-01

    In April 2009 a new influenza A/H1N1 strain, currently named “pandemic (H1N1) influenza 2009¿ (H1N1v), started the first official pandemic in humans since 1968. Several incursions of this virus in pig herds have also been reported from all over the world. Vaccination of pigs may be an option to

  14. Influenza Pandemic: Gaps in Pandemic Planning and Preparedness Need to Be Addressed. Testimony before the Committee on Homeland Security, House of Representatives. GAO-09-909T

    Steinhardt, Bernice

    2009-01-01

    As the current H1N1 outbreak underscores, an influenza pandemic remains a real threat to our nation. Over the past 3 years, the US Government Accountability Office (GAO) conducted a body of work, consisting of 12 reports and 4 testimonies, to help the nation better prepare for a possible pandemic. In February 2009, GAO synthesized the results of…

  15. Talking to the people that really matter about their participation in pandemic clinical research: A qualitative study in four European countries.

    Gobat, Nina H; Gal, Micaela; Butler, Christopher C; Webb, Steve A R; Francis, Nicholas A; Stanton, Helen; Anthierens, Sibyl; Bastiaens, Hilde; Godycki-Ćwirko, Maciek; Kowalczyk, Anna; Pons-Vigués, Mariona; Pujol-Ribera, Enriqueta; Berenguera, Anna; Watkins, Angela; Sukumar, Prasanth; Moore, Ronald G; Hood, Kerenza; Nichol, Alistair

    2018-02-01

    Pandemics of new and emerging infectious diseases are unpredictable, recurrent events that rapidly threaten global health and security. We aimed to identify public views regarding provision of information and consent to participate in primary and critical care clinical research during a future influenza-like illness pandemic. Descriptive-interpretive qualitative study, using focus groups (n = 10) and semi-structured interviews (n = 16), with 80 members of the public (>18 years) in Belgium, Spain, Poland and the UK. Local qualitative researchers followed a scenario-based topic guide to collect data. Data were transcribed verbatim, translated into English and subject to framework analysis. Public understandings of pandemics were shaped by personal factors (illness during the previous H1N1 pandemic, experience of life-threatening illness) and social factors (historical references, media, public health information). Informants appreciated safeguards provided by ethically robust research procedures, but current enrolment procedures were seen as a barrier. They proposed simplified enrolment processes for higher risk research and consent waiver for certain types of low-risk research. Decision making about research participation was influenced by contextual, research and personal factors. Informants generally either carefully weighed up various approaches to research participation or responded instinctively. They supported the principle of using routinely collected, anonymized clinical biological samples for research without explicit consent, but regarded this as less acceptable if researchers were motivated primarily by commercial gain. This bottom-up approach to ascertaining public views on pandemic clinical research has identified support for more proportionate research protection procedures for publically funded, low-risk studies. © 2017 The Authors Health Expectations Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Stakeholders' perceptions of 10years of the Global Action Plan for Influenza Vaccines (GAP) - Results from a survey.

    Nannei, Claudia; Goldin, Shoshanna; Torelli, Guido; Fatima, Hiba; Kumar, Kaveri; Bubb-Humfryes, Oliver; Stenson, Bo; Sparrow, Erin

    2016-10-26

    Ten years after the launch of the Global Action Plan for Influenza Vaccines (GAP), the World Health Organization (WHO) surveyed stakeholders to understand their perceptions of what the programme had achieved. This article provides a summary of the findings; the full report will be available on-line on the GAP website in November 2016 (http://www.who.int/influenza_vaccines_plan/en/). Seventy-seven responses were received from stakeholders including medical doctors, national influenza center officials, country immunization programme teams, surveillance and disease centers, policy-makers, researchers, vaccine manufacturers, and non-governmental organizations from 28 countries, representing all six WHO regions. Respondents cited GAP's biggest successes as capacity building in developing countries; raising international awareness of global needs in the event of a pandemic; and collaborative alignment of influenza stakeholders. The most commonly reported challenges were the limited progress in development of a broadly protective or universal vaccine and the perceived absence of a major increase in seasonal demand. These findings aligned with the perception that less global progress had been made under the third GAP objective, focused on research and development of better vaccines, than on increasing seasonal vaccine use (objective 1) and pandemic vaccine production capacity (objective 2). Respondents explained what they saw as the major challenges to development of better vaccines, including to development of a universal influenza vaccine. The majority of respondents agreed that the goal chosen at the GAP II consultation is still relevant. Results highlighted the importance of promoting research and development of better vaccines, both for facilitating uptake of seasonal vaccines and for ensuring timely vaccine availability in the event of a pandemic. As the GAP concludes its mandate this year, these findings will contribute to discussions on the impact of programme

  17. Assessing and responding in real time to online anti-vaccine sentiment during a flu pandemic.

    Seeman, Neil; Ing, Alton; Rizo, Carlos

    2010-01-01

    The perceived safety of vaccination is an important explanatory factor for vaccine uptake and, consequently, for rates of illness and death. The objectives of this study were (1) to evaluate Canadian attitudes around the safety of the H1N1 vaccine during the fall 2009 influenza pandemic and (2) to consider how public health communications can leverage the Internet to counteract, in real time, anti-vaccine sentiment. We surveyed a random sample of 175,257 Canadian web users from October 27 to November 19, 2009, about their perceptions of the safety of the HINI vaccine. In an independent analysis, we also assessed the popularity of online flu vaccine-related information using a tool developed for this purpose. A total of 27,382 unique online participants answered the survey (15.6% response rate). Of the respondents, 23.4% considered the vaccine safe, 41.4% thought it was unsafe and 35.2% reported ambivalence over its safety. Websites and blog posts with anti-vaccine sentiment remained popular during the course of the pandemic. Current public health communication and education strategies about the flu vaccine can be complemented by web analytics that identify, track and neutralize anti-vaccine sentiment on the Internet, thus increasing perceived vaccine safety. Counter-marketing strategies can be transparent and collaborative, engaging online "influencers" who spread misinformation.

  18. Influenza A virus transmission via respiratory aerosols or droplets as it relates to pandemic potential

    Richard, Mathilde; Fouchier, Ron A.M.

    2015-01-01

    Many respiratory viruses of humans originate from animals. For instance, there are now eight paramyxoviruses, four coronaviruses and four orthomxoviruses that cause recurrent epidemics in humans but were once confined to other hosts. In the last decade, several members of the same virus families have jumped the species barrier from animals to humans. Fortunately, these viruses have not become established in humans, because they lacked the ability of sustained transmission between humans. However, these outbreaks highlighted the lack of understanding of what makes a virus transmissible. In part triggered by the relatively high frequency of occurrence of influenza A virus zoonoses and pandemics, the influenza research community has started to investigate the viral genetic and biological traits that drive virus transmission via aerosols or respiratory droplets between mammals. Here we summarize recent discoveries on the genetic and phenotypic traits required for airborne transmission of zoonotic influenza viruses of subtypes H5, H7 and H9 and pandemic viruses of subtypes H1, H2 and H3. Increased understanding of the determinants and mechanisms of respiratory virus transmission is not only key from a basic scientific perspective, but may also aid in assessing the risks posed by zoonotic viruses to human health, and preparedness for such risks. PMID:26385895

  19. The effects of school closures on influenza outbreaks and pandemics: systematic review of simulation studies.

    Jackson, Charlotte; Mangtani, Punam; Hawker, Jeremy; Olowokure, Babatunde; Vynnycky, Emilia

    2014-01-01

    School closure is a potential intervention during an influenza pandemic and has been investigated in many modelling studies. To systematically review the effects of school closure on influenza outbreaks as predicted by simulation studies. We searched Medline and Embase for relevant modelling studies published by the end of October 2012, and handsearched key journals. We summarised the predicted effects of school closure on the peak and cumulative attack rates and the duration of the epidemic. We investigated how these predictions depended on the basic reproduction number, the timing and duration of closure and the assumed effects of school closures on contact patterns. School closures were usually predicted to be most effective if they caused large reductions in contact, if transmissibility was low (e.g. a basic reproduction number 90% reductions or even increases under certain assumptions). This partly reflected differences in model assumptions, such as those regarding population contact patterns. Simulation studies suggest that school closure can be a useful control measure during an influenza pandemic, particularly for reducing peak demand on health services. However, it is difficult to accurately quantify the likely benefits. Further studies of the effects of reactive school closures on contact patterns are needed to improve the accuracy of model predictions.

  20. Early Characterization of the Severity and Transmissibility of Pandemic Influenza Using Clinical Episode Data from Multiple Populations.

    Pete Riley

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The potential rapid availability of large-scale clinical episode data during the next influenza pandemic suggests an opportunity for increasing the speed with which novel respiratory pathogens can be characterized. Key intervention decisions will be determined by both the transmissibility of the novel strain (measured by the basic reproductive number R0 and its individual-level severity. The 2009 pandemic illustrated that estimating individual-level severity, as described by the proportion pC of infections that result in clinical cases, can remain uncertain for a prolonged period of time. Here, we use 50 distinct US military populations during 2009 as a retrospective cohort to test the hypothesis that real-time encounter data combined with disease dynamic models can be used to bridge this uncertainty gap. Effectively, we estimated the total number of infections in multiple early-affected communities using the model and divided that number by the known number of clinical cases. Joint estimates of severity and transmissibility clustered within a relatively small region of parameter space, with 40 of the 50 populations bounded by: pC, 0.0133-0.150 and R0, 1.09-2.16. These fits were obtained despite widely varying incidence profiles: some with spring waves, some with fall waves and some with both. To illustrate the benefit of specific pairing of rapidly available data and infectious disease models, we simulated a future moderate pandemic strain with pC approximately ×10 that of 2009; the results demonstrating that even before the peak had passed in the first affected population, R0 and pC could be well estimated. This study provides a clear reference in this two-dimensional space against which future novel respiratory pathogens can be rapidly assessed and compared with previous pandemics.

  1. [Importance of health CRM in pandemics and health alerts].

    Cubillas, Juan José; Ramos, María Isabel; Feito, Francisco R; González, José María; Gersol, Rafael; Ramos, María Belén

    2015-05-01

    The aim of this article is to demonstrate the importance of the role a health CRM can play in a pandemic or health alert. During the influenza-A pandemic, Salud Responde played a very important role. Its main objective was to establish protocols and citizens advice lines that would avoid patients with mild influenza-A symptoms going to health centre. A triage system was developed around the Siebel CRM (software tool) to achieve this objective. This allowed the Salud Responde staff to establish the severity of the patient depending on the symptoms and the risk factors of the patient, as well as being able to inform, give health advice or refer the patient to medical centres if necessary. All patients (a total of 56,497) who were attended by Salud Responde within its influenza-A service portfolio have been included. Patients who were attended by Salud Responde. The data have been extracted from the Salud Responde data base. Salud Responde attended to 56,497 patients during the influenza-A pandemic, of whom 48,287 patients did not require health care. Salud Responde attended to 56,497 patients, of whom 48,287 patients did not require health care. Apart from any financial savings that this could entail, it contributed to minimising the pandemic, avoiding the patient having to go to a health centre to receive medical care or information, and prevented, to a great extent, the flooding of casualty departments. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  2. Slowing the Next Pandemic: Survey of Community Mitigation Strategies

    During the next influenza pandemic, it will take time to develop a vaccine and there may be limited medication to treat or prevent illness. To slow the spread of disease, CDC and other public health officials will likely ask Americans to decrease contact with others through altering work schedules, school dismissals and other measures. Researchers recently surveyed the public to see whether people could follow those recommendations and what kind of impact they might have.

  3. Technology transfer of oil-in-water emulsion adjuvant manufacturing for pandemic influenza vaccine production in Romania.

    Fox, Christopher B; Huynh, Chuong; O'Hara, Michael K; Onu, Adrian

    2013-03-15

    Many developing countries lack or have inadequate pandemic influenza vaccine manufacturing capacity. In the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, this led to delayed and inadequate vaccine coverage in the developing world. Thus, bolstering developing country influenza vaccine manufacturing capacity is urgently needed. The Cantacuzino Institute in Bucharest, Romania has been producing seasonal influenza vaccine since the 1970s, and has the capacity to produce ∼5 million doses of monovalent vaccine in the event of an influenza pandemic. Inclusion of an adjuvant in the vaccine could enable antigen dose sparing, expanding vaccine coverage and potentially allowing universal vaccination of the Romanian population and possibly neighboring countries. However, adjuvant formulation and manufacturing know-how are difficult to access. This manuscript describes the successful transfer of oil-in-water emulsion adjuvant manufacturing and quality control technologies from the Infectious Disease Research Institute in Seattle, USA to the Cantacuzino Institute. By describing the challenges and accomplishments of the project, it is hoped that the knowledge and experience gained will benefit other institutes involved in similar technology transfer projects designed to facilitate increased vaccine manufacturing capacity in developing countries. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Radiological and Clinical Characteristics of a Military Outbreak of Pandemic H1N1 2009 Influenza Virus Infection

    Yun, Tae Jin; Kwon, Gu Jin; Oh, Mi Kyeong; Woo, Sung Koo; Park, Seung Hoon; Choi, Seung Hong; Lee, Hyun Ju; Goo, Jin Mo; Yim, Jae Joon; Kim, Jong Sung; Park, Chang Min

    2010-01-01

    To describe detailed clinical and radiological features of the pandemic H1N1 2009 influenza viral infection among healthy young males in a semiclosed institutionalized setting. A total of 18 patients confirmed with the pandemic H1N1 2009 influenza virus infection from July 18 to July 30, 2009 were enrolled in this study. Each patient underwent an evaluation to determine detailed clinical and radiological features. All patients presented with high fever (> 38.0..C), with accompanying symptoms of cough, rhinorrhea, sore throat, myalgia and diarrhea, and increased C-reactive protein (CRP) values with no leukocytosis nor elevated erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR). All patients, including one patient who progressed into acute respiratory distress syndrome, were treated with oseltamivir phosphate and quickly recovered from their symptoms. Chest radiographs showed abnormalities of small nodules and lobar consolidation in only two out of 18 patients. However, six of 12 patients who underwent thin-section CT examinations showed abnormal findings for small ground-glass opacities (GGOs) in addition to poorly-defined nodules with upper lobe predominance. In a population of healthy young adults, elevated CRP with normal ESR and white blood cell levels combined with GGOs and nodules on thin section CT scans may indicate early signs of infection by the pandemic H1N1 2009 influenza virus

  5. The potential impact of the next influenza pandemic on a national primary care medical workforce

    Wilson, Nick; Baker, Michael; Crampton, Peter; Mansoor, Osman

    2005-01-01

    Abstract Background Another influenza pandemic is all but inevitable. We estimated its potential impact on the primary care medical workforce in New Zealand, so that planning could mitigate the disruption from the pandemic and similar challenges. Methods The model in the "FluAid" software (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, CDC, Atlanta) was applied to the New Zealand primary care medical workforce (i.e., general practitioners). Results At its peak (week 4) the pandemic would lead to...

  6. Prisons' preparedness for pandemic flu and the ethical issues.

    van't Hoff, G; Fedosejeva, R; Mihailescu, L

    2009-06-01

    In Europe at any given time there are about 1,8 million people imprisoned in penal institutions. About 1 million personnel are working in prisons. With prisons, from the start there are fundamental problems in many parts of Europe. Poor housing conditions in prisons and a high proportion of prisoners who already suffer from severe health problems mean the chance of an outbreak in prison during a pandemic must be quite high. We expect it can be up to 90%. In this article we explain what the characteristics are of the prison population from a health point of view. A high rate of detainees suffers from mental health disorders and/or addiction. A high prevalence of communicable and infectious diseases is the rule, not an exception. According to the European Prison Rules and many other international rules, statements and documents prison health care should be an integral part of the public health system of any country. However, it has to be accepted that the prison population is the least popular in society and in politics. In reality in many countries in Europe the situation in prison cannot meet the level strived for by the European Prison Rules. We compare preparedness on pandemic flu in The Netherlands, Latvia and Romania. We explore the problems and ethical issues that may arise if a pandemic breaks out. There are three ethical dilemmas that require consideration: equivalence of care and prisoners' right to health care; prisoners' interests verses society's interests; countries in need and calls for bilateral help.

  7. Nonpharmaceutical Interventions for Military Populations During Pandemic Influenza

    Selim Kilic

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available Influenza causes substantial illness and loss of work days among young adults, and outbreaks can affect the preparedness of military units. In an influenza pandemic, people who live in confined settings have greater risk of infection. Military trainees are at particularly high risk. Because of likely unavailability of vaccines and antiviral drugs at the start of a pandemic and for many months thereafter, nonpharmaceutical interventions may be very important. During a pandemic, it seems prudent that military public health officials employ at least several nonpharmaceutical interventions. For example frequent handwashing and respiratory hygiene/cough etiquette should be strongly encouraged among soldiers. Head-to-toe sleeping, a “no-cost” intervention should be for crowded berthing areas. Isolation of patients with influenza and quarantine of their close contacts should be employed. Masks and alcohol-based hand rubs may be employed among those at highest risk. Finally, whenever possible military planners should, reduce crowding and limit the interaction of training cohorts to reduce risk of influenza virus transmission. [TAF Prev Med Bull. 2007; 6(4: 285-290

  8. Intravenous Immunoglobulin Protects Against Severe Pandemic Influenza Infection

    Steven Rockman

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Influenza is a highly contagious, acute, febrile respiratory infection that can have fatal consequences particularly in individuals with chronic illnesses. Sporadic reports suggest that intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIg may be efficacious in the influenza setting. We investigated the potential of human IVIg to ameliorate influenza infection in ferrets exposed to either the pandemic H1N1/09 virus (pH1N1 or highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1. IVIg administered at the time of influenza virus exposure led to a significant reduction in lung viral load following pH1N1 challenge. In the lethal H5N1 model, the majority of animals given IVIg survived challenge in a dose dependent manner. Protection was also afforded by purified F(ab′2 but not Fc fragments derived from IVIg, supporting a specific antibody-mediated mechanism of protection. We conclude that pre-pandemic IVIg can modulate serious influenza infection-associated mortality and morbidity. IVIg could be useful prophylactically in the event of a pandemic to protect vulnerable population groups and in the critical care setting as a first stage intervention.

  9. Modeling emergent border-crossing behaviors during pandemics

    Santos, Eunice E.; Santos, Eugene; Korah, John; Thompson, Jeremy E.; Gu, Qi; Kim, Keum Joo; Li, Deqing; Russell, Jacob; Subramanian, Suresh; Zhang, Yuxi; Zhao, Yan

    2013-06-01

    Modeling real-world scenarios is a challenge for traditional social science researchers, as it is often hard to capture the intricacies and dynamisms of real-world situations without making simplistic assumptions. This imposes severe limitations on the capabilities of such models and frameworks. Complex population dynamics during natural disasters such as pandemics is an area where computational social science can provide useful insights and explanations. In this paper, we employ a novel intent-driven modeling paradigm for such real-world scenarios by causally mapping beliefs, goals, and actions of individuals and groups to overall behavior using a probabilistic representation called Bayesian Knowledge Bases (BKBs). To validate our framework we examine emergent behavior occurring near a national border during pandemics, specifically the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Mexico. The novelty of the work in this paper lies in representing the dynamism at multiple scales by including both coarse-grained (events at the national level) and finegrained (events at two separate border locations) information. This is especially useful for analysts in disaster management and first responder organizations who need to be able to understand both macro-level behavior and changes in the immediate vicinity, to help with planning, prevention, and mitigation. We demonstrate the capabilities of our framework in uncovering previously hidden connections and explanations by comparing independent models of the border locations with their fused model to identify emergent behaviors not found in either independent location models nor in a simple linear combination of those models.

  10. Community Assessment Tool for Public Health Emergencies Including Pandemic Influenza

    ORAU' s Oak Ridge Institute for Science Education (HCTT-CHE)

    2011-04-14

    The Community Assessment Tool (CAT) for Public Health Emergencies Including Pandemic Influenza (hereafter referred to as the CAT) was developed as a result of feedback received from several communities. These communities participated in workshops focused on influenza pandemic planning and response. The 2008 through 2011 workshops were sponsored by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Feedback during those workshops indicated the need for a tool that a community can use to assess its readiness for a disaster - readiness from a total healthcare perspective, not just hospitals, but the whole healthcare system. The CAT intends to do just that - help strengthen existing preparedness plans by allowing the healthcare system and other agencies to work together during an influenza pandemic. It helps reveal each core agency partners (sectors) capabilities and resources, and highlights cases of the same vendors being used for resource supplies (e.g., personal protective equipment [PPE] and oxygen) by the partners (e.g., public health departments, clinics, or hospitals). The CAT also addresses gaps in the community's capabilities or potential shortages in resources. This tool has been reviewed by a variety of key subject matter experts from federal, state, and local agencies and organizations. It also has been piloted with various communities that consist of different population sizes, to include large urban to small rural communities.

  11. Myostatin-deficiency in mice increases global gene expression at the Dlk1-Dio3 locus in the skeletal muscle.

    Hitachi, Keisuke; Tsuchida, Kunihiro

    2017-01-24

    Myostatin, a member of the transforming growth factor-beta superfamily, is a negative regulator of skeletal muscle growth and development. Myostatin inhibition leads to increased skeletal muscle mass in mammals; hence, myostatin is considered a potential therapeutic target for skeletal muscle wasting. However, downstream molecules of myostatin in the skeletal muscle have not been fully elucidated. Here, we identified the Dlk1-Dio3 locus at the mouse chromosome 12qF1, also called as the callipyge locus in sheep, as a novel downstream target of myostatin. In skeletal muscle of myostatin knockout mice, the expression of mature miRNAs at the Dlk1-Dio3 locus was significantly increased. The increased miRNA levels are caused by the transcriptional activation of the Dlk1-Dio3 locus, because a significant increase in the primary miRNA transcript was observed in myostatin knockout mice. In addition, we found increased expression of coding and non-coding genes (Dlk1, Gtl2, Rtl1/Rtl1as, and Rian) at the Dlk1-Dio3 locus in myostatin-deficient skeletal muscle. Moreover, epigenetic changes, associated with the regulation of the Dlk1-Dio3 locus, were observed in myostatin knockout mice. Taken together, this is the first report demonstrating the role of myostatin in regulating the Dlk1-Dio3 (the callipyge) locus in the skeletal muscle.

  12. Comparative scenario study of tropospheric ozone climate interactions using a global model. A 1% global increase rate, the IS92a IPCC scenario and a simplified aircraft traffic increase scenario

    Chalita, S [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), 75 - Paris (France). Service d` Aeronomie; Le Treut, H [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), 75 - Paris (France). Lab. de Meteorologie Dynamique

    1998-12-31

    Sensitivity studies have been made to establish the relationship between different scenarios of tropospheric ozone increase and radiative forcing. Some aspects of the ozone-climate interactions for past and future scenarios are investigated. These calculations employ IMAGES tropospheric ozone concentrations for a pre-industrial, present and future atmospheres. The averaged last 10 years of the 25-year seasonal integrations were analyzed. The results of this study are preliminary. Ozone forcing is basically different from the CO{sub 2} forcing, for its regional and temporal structured nature and for its rather weak intensity. (R.P.) 14 refs.

  13. Comparative scenario study of tropospheric ozone climate interactions using a global model. A 1% global increase rate, the IS92a IPCC scenario and a simplified aircraft traffic increase scenario

    Chalita, S. [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), 75 - Paris (France). Service d`Aeronomie; Le Treut, H. [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), 75 - Paris (France). Lab. de Meteorologie Dynamique

    1997-12-31

    Sensitivity studies have been made to establish the relationship between different scenarios of tropospheric ozone increase and radiative forcing. Some aspects of the ozone-climate interactions for past and future scenarios are investigated. These calculations employ IMAGES tropospheric ozone concentrations for a pre-industrial, present and future atmospheres. The averaged last 10 years of the 25-year seasonal integrations were analyzed. The results of this study are preliminary. Ozone forcing is basically different from the CO{sub 2} forcing, for its regional and temporal structured nature and for its rather weak intensity. (R.P.) 14 refs.

  14. The global transmission network of HIV-1.

    Wertheim, Joel O; Leigh Brown, Andrew J; Hepler, N Lance; Mehta, Sanjay R; Richman, Douglas D; Smith, Davey M; Kosakovsky Pond, Sergei L

    2014-01-15

    Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) is pandemic, but its contemporary global transmission network has not been characterized. A better understanding of the properties and dynamics of this network is essential for surveillance, prevention, and eventual eradication of HIV. Here, we apply a simple and computationally efficient network-based approach to all publicly available HIV polymerase sequences in the global database, revealing a contemporary picture of the spread of HIV-1 within and between countries. This approach automatically recovered well-characterized transmission clusters and extended other clusters thought to be contained within a single country across international borders. In addition, previously undescribed transmission clusters were discovered. Together, these clusters represent all known modes of HIV transmission. The extent of international linkage revealed by our comprehensive approach demonstrates the need to consider the global diversity of HIV, even when describing local epidemics. Finally, the speed of this method allows for near-real-time surveillance of the pandemic's progression.

  15. The highest global concentrations and increased abundance of oceanic plastic debris in the North Pacific: Evidence from seabirds

    Robards, Martin D.; Gould, Patrick J.; Coe, James M.; Rogers, Donald B.

    1997-01-01

    Plastic pollution has risen dramatically with an increase in production of plastic resin during the past few decades. Plastic production in the United States increased from 2.9 million tons in I960 to 47.9 million tons in 1985 (Society of the Plastics Industry 1986). This has been paralleled by a significant increase in the concentration of plastic particles in oceanic surface waters of the North Pacific from the 1970s to the late 1980s (Day and Shaw 1987; Day et al. 1990a). Research during the past few decades has indicated two major interactions between marine life and oceanic plastic: entanglement and ingestion (Laist 1987). Studies in the last decade have documented the prevalence of plastic in the diets of many seabird species in the North Pacific and the need for further monitoring of those species and groups that ingest the most plastic (Day et al. 1985).

  16. Climate change-induced vegetation shifts lead to more ecological droughts despite projected rainfall increases in many global temperate drylands.

    Tietjen, Britta; Schlaepfer, Daniel R; Bradford, John B; Lauenroth, William K; Hall, Sonia A; Duniway, Michael C; Hochstrasser, Tamara; Jia, Gensuo; Munson, Seth M; Pyke, David A; Wilson, Scott D

    2017-07-01

    Drylands occur worldwide and are particularly vulnerable to climate change because dryland ecosystems depend directly on soil water availability that may become increasingly limited as temperatures rise. Climate change will both directly impact soil water availability and change plant biomass, with resulting indirect feedbacks on soil moisture. Thus, the net impact of direct and indirect climate change effects on soil moisture requires better understanding. We used the ecohydrological simulation model SOILWAT at sites from temperate dryland ecosystems around the globe to disentangle the contributions of direct climate change effects and of additional indirect, climate change-induced changes in vegetation on soil water availability. We simulated current and future climate conditions projected by 16 GCMs under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the end of the century. We determined shifts in water availability due to climate change alone and due to combined changes of climate and the growth form and biomass of vegetation. Vegetation change will mostly exacerbate low soil water availability in regions already expected to suffer from negative direct impacts of climate change (with the two RCP scenarios giving us qualitatively similar effects). By contrast, in regions that will likely experience increased water availability due to climate change alone, vegetation changes will counteract these increases due to increased water losses by interception. In only a small minority of locations, climate change-induced vegetation changes may lead to a net increase in water availability. These results suggest that changes in vegetation in response to climate change may exacerbate drought conditions and may dampen the effects of increased precipitation, that is, leading to more ecological droughts despite higher precipitation in some regions. Our results underscore the value of considering indirect effects of climate change on vegetation when assessing future soil moisture conditions in water

  17. Climate change-induced vegetation shifts lead to more ecological droughts despite projected rainfall increases in many global temperate drylands

    Tietjen, Britta; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Bradford, John B.; Laurenroth, William K.; Hall, Sonia A.; Duniway, Michael C.; Hochstrasser, Tamara; Jia, Gensuo; Munson, Seth M.; Pyke, David A.; Wilson, Scott D.

    2017-01-01

    Drylands occur world-wide and are particularly vulnerable to climate change since dryland ecosystems depend directly on soil water availability that may become increasingly limited as temperatures rise. Climate change will both directly impact soil water availability, and also change plant biomass, with resulting indirect feedbacks on soil moisture. Thus, the net impact of direct and indirect climate change effects on soil moisture requires better understanding.We used the ecohydrological simulation model SOILWAT at sites from temperate dryland ecosystems around the globe to disentangle the contributions of direct climate change effects and of additional indirect, climate change-induced changes in vegetation on soil water availability. We simulated current and future climate conditions projected by 16 GCMs under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the end of the century. We determined shifts in water availability due to climate change alone and due to combined changes of climate and the growth form and biomass of vegetation.Vegetation change will mostly exacerbate low soil water availability in regions already expected to suffer from negative direct impacts of climate change (with the two RCP scenarios giving us qualitatively similar effects). By contrast, in regions that will likely experience increased water availability due to climate change alone, vegetation changes will counteract these increases due to increased water losses by interception. In only a small minority of locations, climate change induced vegetation changes may lead to a net increase in water availability. These results suggest that changes in vegetation in response to climate change may exacerbate drought conditions and may dampen the effects of increased precipitation, i.e. leading to more ecological droughts despite higher precipitation in some regions. Our results underscore the value of considering indirect effects of climate change on vegetation when assessing future soil moisture conditions in water

  18. Supply of neuraminidase inhibitors related to reduced influenza A (H1N1) mortality during the 2009-2010 H1N1 pandemic: an ecological study.

    Miller, Paula E; Rambachan, Aksharananda; Hubbard, Roderick J; Li, Jiabai; Meyer, Alison E; Stephens, Peter; Mounts, Anthony W; Rolfes, Melissa A; Penn, Charles R

    2012-01-01

    The influenza A (H1N1) pandemic swept across the globe from April 2009 to August 2010 affecting millions. Many WHO Member States relied on antiviral drugs, specifically neuraminidase inhibitors (NAIs) oseltamivir and zanamivir, to treat influenza patients in critical condition. Such drugs have been found to be effective in reducing severity and duration of influenza illness, and likely reduced morbidity during the pandemic. However, it is less clear whether NAIs used during the pandemic reduced H1N1 mortality. Country-level data on supply of oseltamivir and zanamivir were used to predict H1N1 mortality (per 100,000 people) from July 2009 to August 2010 in forty-two WHO Member States. Poisson regression was used to model the association between NAI supply and H1N1 mortality, with adjustment for economic, demographic, and health-related confounders. After adjustment for potential confounders, each 10% increase in kilograms of oseltamivir, per 100,000 people, was associated with a 1.6% reduction in H1N1 mortality over the pandemic period (relative rate (RR) = 0.84 per log increase in oseltamivir supply). While the supply of zanamivir was considerably less than that of oseltamivir in each Member State, each 10% increase in kilogram of active zanamivir, per 100,000, was associated with a 0.3% reduction in H1N1 mortality (RR = 0.97 per log increase). While there are limitations to the ecologic nature of these data, this analysis offers evidence of a protective relationship between antiviral drug supply and influenza mortality and supports a role for influenza antiviral use in future pandemics.

  19. The strategic role of partnerships between universities and private corporations as a driver for increasing workforce competitiveness in a global economy

    Damoc Adrian-Ioan

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available A global economic context means increased competition as corporations face contenders from other countries, and there is a wider range of choices on the market available to consumers. This global competition drives economic actors to seek competitive edges to increase the efficiency of their operations; within this global economy, corporations seek these advantages, outsourcing their activities in order to make use of the opportunities of globalisation. The same situation can be encountered on the labour market. While the expansion of economic activities globally often means increased employment opportunities, it also means that job seekers from around the world need to become more competitive on the job market to attract better employment opportunities. Workforce competitiveness is determined by various factors, like availability and ease of access (i.e. job market legislation, level and quality of education, and cost. The level and quality of education are of particular concern, as it gauges the potential of the workforce, and is the cornerstone of the controversial “skills gap”, based on a common complaint of corporations regarding a shortage of skilled employees. Acknowledging the importance of this factor, numerous companies have concluded partnerships with local universities, leading to intimate connections between the business environment and education. Thus, in the same manner that supply and demand shape the markets for typical goods and determine the success of a market, these partnerships between universities and corporations influence the labour market, bringing together demand (i.e. the corporations seeking skilled employees and supply (universities and education centres training the future workforce. There are numerous long-term benefits that such partnerships can bring to a country’s education sector. As such, the present paper seeks to examine the strategic importance of partnerships between academia and industry as a key

  20. Whole genome characterization of human influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses isolated from Kenya during the 2009 pandemic.

    Gachara, George; Symekher, Samuel; Otieno, Michael; Magana, Japheth; Opot, Benjamin; Bulimo, Wallace

    2016-06-01

    An influenza pandemic caused by a novel influenza virus A(H1N1)pdm09 spread worldwide in 2009 and is estimated to have caused between 151,700 and 575,400 deaths globally. While whole genome data on new virus enables a deeper insight in the pathogenesis, epidemiology, and drug sensitivities of the circulating viruses, there are relatively limited complete genetic sequences available for this virus from African countries. We describe herein the full genome analysis of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses isolated in Kenya between June 2009 and August 2010. A total of 40 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses isolated during the pandemic were selected. The segments from each isolate were amplified and directly sequenced. The resulting sequences of individual gene segments were concatenated and used for subsequent analysis. These were used to infer phylogenetic relationships and also to reconstruct the time of most recent ancestor, time of introduction into the country, rates of substitution and to estimate a time-resolved phylogeny. The Kenyan complete genome sequences clustered with globally distributed clade 2 and clade 7 sequences but local clade 2 viruses did not circulate beyond the introductory foci while clade 7 viruses disseminated country wide. The time of the most recent common ancestor was estimated between April and June 2009, and distinct clusters circulated during the pandemic. The complete genome had an estimated rate of nucleotide substitution of 4.9×10(-3) substitutions/site/year and greater diversity in surface expressed proteins was observed. We show that two clades of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus were introduced into Kenya from the UK and the pandemic was sustained as a result of importations. Several closely related but distinct clusters co-circulated locally during the peak pandemic phase but only one cluster dominated in the late phase of the pandemic suggesting that it possessed greater adaptability. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.