WorldWideScience

Sample records for global ocean forecast

  1. Global Ocean Forecast System 3.1 Validation Test

    2017-05-04

    the relative skill of one analysis region with another. 49 An ice score card similar to the ocean score card has not yet been refined, so...the water column. GOFS nowcasts/forecasts the ocean’s “ weather ”, which includes the three-dimensional ocean temperature, salinity and current...42 4.0 SUMMARY, SCORE CARDS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ..................................................... 46

  2. Remote sensing for global change, climate change and atmosphere and ocean forecasting. Volume 1

    1992-01-01

    This volume is separated in three sessions. First part is on remote sensing for global change (with global modelling, land cover change on global scale, ocean colour studies of marine biosphere, biological and hydrological interactions and large scale experiments). Second part is on remote sensing for climate change (with earth radiation and clouds, sea ice, global climate research programme). Third part is on remote sensing for atmosphere and ocean forecasting (with temperatures and humidity, winds, data assimilation, cloud imagery, sea surface temperature, ocean waves and topography). (A.B.). refs., figs., tabs

  3. Assessment of Global Forecast Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM) using new satellite SST data

    Ascione Kenov, Isabella; Sykes, Peter; Fiedler, Emma; McConnell, Niall; Ryan, Andrew; Maksymczuk, Jan

    2016-04-01

    There is an increased demand for accurate ocean weather information for applications in the field of marine safety and navigation, water quality, offshore commercial operations, monitoring of oil spills and pollutants, among others. The Met Office, UK, provides ocean forecasts to customers from governmental, commercial and ecological sectors using the Global Forecast Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM), an operational modelling system which covers the global ocean and runs daily, using the NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) ocean model with horizontal resolution of 1/4° and 75 vertical levels. The system assimilates salinity and temperature profiles, sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface height (SSH), and sea ice concentration observations on a daily basis. In this study, the FOAM system is updated to assimilate Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) and the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) SST data. Model results from one month trials are assessed against observations using verification tools which provide a quantitative description of model performance and error, based on statistical metrics, including mean error, root mean square error (RMSE), correlation coefficient, and Taylor diagrams. A series of hindcast experiments is used to run the FOAM system with AMSR2 and SEVIRI SST data, using a control run for comparison. Results show that all trials perform well on the global ocean and that largest SST mean errors were found in the Southern hemisphere. The geographic distribution of the model error for SST and temperature profiles are discussed using statistical metrics evaluated over sub-regions of the global ocean.

  4. Monte Carlo climate change forecasts with a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model

    Cubasch, U.; Santer, B.D.; Hegerl, G.; Hoeck, H.; Maier-Reimer, E.; Mikolajwicz, U.; Stoessel, A.; Voss, R.

    1992-01-01

    The Monte Carlo approach, which has increasingly been used during the last decade in the field of extended range weather forecasting, has been applied for climate change experiments. Four integrations with a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model have been started from different initial conditions, but with the same greenhouse gas forcing according to the IPCC scenario A. All experiments have been run for a period of 50 years. The results indicate that the time evolution of the global mean warming depends strongly on the initial state of the climate system. It can vary between 6 and 31 years. The Monte Carlo approach delivers information about both the mean response and the statistical significance of the response. While the individual members of the ensemble show a considerable variation in the climate change pattern of temperature after 50 years, the ensemble mean climate change pattern closely resembles the pattern obtained in a 100 year integration and is, at least over most of the land areas, statistically significant. The ensemble averaged sea-level change due to thermal expansion is significant in the global mean and locally over wide regions of the Pacific. The hydrological cycle is also significantly enhanced in the global mean, but locally the changes in precipitation and soil moisture are masked by the variability of the experiments. (orig.)

  5. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) [1 Deg.

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) is a weather forecast model made up of 21 separate forecasts, or ensemble members. The National Centers for Environmental...

  6. Performance and Quality Assessment of the Forthcoming Copernicus Marine Service Global Ocean Monitoring and Forecasting Real-Time System

    Lellouche, J. M.; Le Galloudec, O.; Greiner, E.; Garric, G.; Regnier, C.; Drillet, Y.

    2016-02-01

    Mercator Ocean currently delivers in real-time daily services (weekly analyses and daily forecast) with a global 1/12° high resolution system. The model component is the NEMO platform driven at the surface by the IFS ECMWF atmospheric analyses and forecasts. Observations are assimilated by means of a reduced-order Kalman filter with a 3D multivariate modal decomposition of the forecast error. It includes an adaptive-error estimate and a localization algorithm. Along track altimeter data, satellite Sea Surface Temperature and in situ temperature and salinity vertical profiles are jointly assimilated to estimate the initial conditions for numerical ocean forecasting. A 3D-Var scheme provides a correction for the slowly-evolving large-scale biases in temperature and salinity.Since May 2015, Mercator Ocean opened the Copernicus Marine Service (CMS) and is in charge of the global ocean analyses and forecast, at eddy resolving resolution. In this context, R&D activities have been conducted at Mercator Ocean these last years in order to improve the real-time 1/12° global system for the next CMS version in 2016. The ocean/sea-ice model and the assimilation scheme benefit among others from the following improvements: large-scale and objective correction of atmospheric quantities with satellite data, new Mean Dynamic Topography taking into account the last version of GOCE geoid, new adaptive tuning of some observational errors, new Quality Control on the assimilated temperature and salinity vertical profiles based on dynamic height criteria, assimilation of satellite sea-ice concentration, new freshwater runoff from ice sheets melting …This presentation doesn't focus on the impact of each update, but rather on the overall behavior of the system integrating all updates. This assessment reports on the products quality improvements, highlighting the level of performance and the reliability of the new system.

  7. Global Forecast System (GFS) [1 Deg.

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Forecast System (GFS) is a weather forecast model produced by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Dozens of atmospheric and...

  8. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) [2.5 Deg.

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) is a weather forecast model made up of 21 separate forecasts, or ensemble members. The National Centers for Environmental...

  9. HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM): Global

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Global HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) and U.S. Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) 3-day, daily forecast at approximately 9-km (1/12-degree)...

  10. Validation Test Report for the 1/8 deg Global Navy Coastal Ocean Model Nowcast/Forecast System

    Barron, Charlie N; Kara, A. B; Rhodes, Robert C; Rowley, Clark; Smedstad, Lucy F

    2007-01-01

    .... Global NCOM supports predictions of ocean currents, temperatures, salinity, sea surface height, and sound speed both directly and by providing initial and boundary conditions for higher-resolution nested ocean models...

  11. Assessment of GloseA4 seasonal forecasts for SADC and the global oceans

    Landman, WA

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available into multi-models. Moreover, coupled ocean-atmosphere models have the ability to outscore atmospheric models, also for southern Africa (Landman et al., 2012). The main objective of this paper is to demonstrate the skill of the UK Met Office Hadley Centre’s...

  12. Evolution of Indian Ocean biases in the summer monsoon season hindcasts from the Met Office Global Seasonal Forecasting System GloSea5

    Chevuturi, A.; Turner, A. G.; Woolnough, S. J.

    2016-12-01

    In this study we investigate the development of biases in the Indian Ocean region in summer hindcasts of the UK Met Office coupled initialised global seasonal forecasting system, GloSea5-GC2. Previous work has demonstrated the rapid evolution of strong monsoon circulation biases over India from seasonal forecasts initialised in early May, together with coupled strong easterly wind biases on the equator. We analyse a set of three springtime start dates for the 20-year hindcast period (1992-2011) and fifteen total ensemble members for each year. We use comparisons with a variety of observations to test the rate of evolving mean-state biases in the Arabian Sea, over India, and over the equatorial Indian Ocean. Biases are all shown to develop rapidly, particularly for the circulation bias over India that is connected to convection. These circulation biases later reach the surface and lead to responses in Arabian Sea SST in accordance with coastal and Ekman upwelling processes. We also assess the evolution of radiation and turbulent heat fluxes at the surface. Meanwhile at the equator, easterly biases in surface winds are shown to develop rapidly, consistent with an SST pattern that is consistent with positive-Indian Ocean dipole mean state conditions (warm western equatorial Indian Ocean, cold east). This bias develops consistent with coupled ocean-atmosphere exchanges and Bjerknes feedback. We hypothesize that lower tropospheric easterly wind biases developing in the equatorial region originate from the surface, and also that signals of the cold bias in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean propagate to the Bay of Bengal via coastal Kelvin waves. Earlier work has shown the utility of wind-stress corrections in the Indian Ocean for correcting the easterly winds bias there and ultimately improving the evolution of the Indian Ocean Dipole. We identify and test this wind-stress correction technique in case study years from the hindcast period to see their impact on seasonal

  13. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) NCEP-Global Forecast System (GFS) Precipitation Forecast Product

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Forecast System (GFS) forecast precipitation data at 37.5km resolution is created at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center for the purpose of near real-time...

  14. Global Forecast System (GFS) [0.5 Deg.

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Forecast System (GFS) is a weather forecast model produced by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Dozens of atmospheric and...

  15. NOAA/NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) Atmospheric Model

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) numerical weather...

  16. Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2012

    Hong, Tao; Pinson, Pierre; Fan, Shu

    2014-01-01

    The Global Energy Forecasting Competition (GEFCom2012) attracted hundreds of participants worldwide, who contributed many novel ideas to the energy forecasting field. This paper introduces both tracks of GEFCom2012, hierarchical load forecasting and wind power forecasting, with details...... on the aspects of the problem, the data, and a summary of the methods used by selected top entries. We also discuss the lessons learned from this competition from the organizers’ perspective. The complete data set, including the solution data, is published along with this paper, in an effort to establish...

  17. Ocean wave forecasting using recurrent neural networks

    Mandal, S.; Prabaharan, N.

    , merchant vessel routing, nearshore construction, etc. more efficiently and safely. This paper describes an artificial neural network, namely recurrent neural network with rprop update algorithm and is applied for wave forecasting. Measured ocean waves off...

  18. Precipitable water and surface humidity over global oceans from special sensor microwave imager and European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts

    Liu, W. T.; Tang, Wenqing; Wentz, Frank J.

    1992-01-01

    Global fields of precipitable water W from the special sensor microwave imager were compared with those from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model. They agree over most ocean areas; both data sets capture the two annual cycles examined and the interannual anomalies during an ENSO episode. They show significant differences in the dry air masses over the eastern tropical-subtropical oceans, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. In these regions, comparisons with radiosonde data indicate that overestimation by the ECMWF model accounts for a large part of the differences. As a check on the W differences, surface-level specific humidity Q derived from W, using a statistical relation, was compared with Q from the ECMWF model. The differences in Q were found to be consistent with the differences in W, indirectly validating the Q-W relation. In both W and Q, SSMI was able to discern clearly the equatorial extension of the tongues of dry air in the eastern tropical ocean, while both ECMWF and climatological fields have reduced spatial gradients and weaker intensity.

  19. Visualization of ocean forecast in BYTHOS

    Zhuk, E.; Zodiatis, G.; Nikolaidis, A.; Stylianou, S.; Karaolia, A.

    2016-08-01

    The Cyprus Oceanography Center has been constantly searching for new ideas for developing and implementing innovative methods and new developments concerning the use of Information Systems in Oceanography, to suit both the Center's monitoring and forecasting products. Within the frame of this scope two major online managing and visualizing data systems have been developed and utilized, those of CYCOFOS and BYTHOS. The Cyprus Coastal Ocean Forecasting and Observing System - CYCOFOS provides a variety of operational predictions such as ultra high, high and medium resolution ocean forecasts in the Levantine Basin, offshore and coastal sea state forecasts in the Mediterranean and Black Sea, tide forecasting in the Mediterranean, ocean remote sensing in the Eastern Mediterranean and coastal and offshore monitoring. As a rich internet application, BYTHOS enables scientists to search, visualize and download oceanographic data online and in real time. The recent improving of BYTHOS system is the extension with access and visualization of CYCOFOS data and overlay forecast fields and observing data. The CYCOFOS data are stored at OPENDAP Server in netCDF format. To search, process and visualize it the php and python scripts were developed. Data visualization is achieved through Mapserver. The BYTHOS forecast access interface allows to search necessary forecasting field by recognizing type, parameter, region, level and time. Also it provides opportunity to overlay different forecast and observing data that can be used for complex analyze of sea basin aspects.

  20. Satellite based Ocean Forecasting, the SOFT project

    Stemmann, L.; Tintoré, J.; Moneris, S.

    2003-04-01

    The knowledge of future oceanic conditions would have enormous impact on human marine related areas. For such reasons, a number of international efforts are being carried out to obtain reliable and manageable ocean forecasting systems. Among the possible techniques that can be used to estimate the near future states of the ocean, an ocean forecasting system based on satellite imagery is developped through the Satelitte based Ocean ForecasTing project (SOFT). SOFT, established by the European Commission, considers the development of a forecasting system of the ocean space-time variability based on satellite data by using Artificial Intelligence techniques. This system will be merged with numerical simulation approaches, via assimilation techniques, to get a hybrid SOFT-numerical forecasting system of improved performance. The results of the project will provide efficient forecasting of sea-surface temperature structures, currents, dynamic height, and biological activity associated to chlorophyll fields. All these quantities could give valuable information on the planning and management of human activities in marine environments such as navigation, fisheries, pollution control, or coastal management. A detailed identification of present or new needs and potential end-users concerned by such an operational tool is being performed. The project would study solutions adapted to these specific needs.

  1. Global Ocean Phytoplankton

    Franz, B. A.; Behrenfeld, M. J.; Siegel, D. A.; Werdell, P. J.

    2014-01-01

    Marine phytoplankton are responsible for roughly half the net primary production (NPP) on Earth, fixing atmospheric CO2 into food that fuels global ocean ecosystems and drives the ocean's biogeochemical cycles. Phytoplankton growth is highly sensitive to variations in ocean physical properties, such as upper ocean stratification and light availability within this mixed layer. Satellite ocean color sensors, such as the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS; McClain 2009) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS; Esaias 1998), provide observations of sufficient frequency and geographic coverage to globally monitor physically-driven changes in phytoplankton distributions. In practice, ocean color sensors retrieve the spectral distribution of visible solar radiation reflected upward from beneath the ocean surface, which can then be related to changes in the photosynthetic phytoplankton pigment, chlorophyll- a (Chla; measured in mg m-3). Here, global Chla data for 2013 are evaluated within the context of the 16-year continuous record provided through the combined observations of SeaWiFS (1997-2010) and MODIS on Aqua (MODISA; 2002-present). Ocean color measurements from the recently launched Visible and Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS; 2011-present) are also considered, but results suggest that the temporal calibration of the VIIRS sensor is not yet sufficiently stable for quantitative global change studies. All MODISA (version 2013.1), SeaWiFS (version 2010.0), and VIIRS (version 2013.1) data presented here were produced by NASA using consistent Chla algorithms.

  2. Forecasting global atmospheric CO2

    Agusti-Panareda, A.; Massart, S.; Boussetta, S.; Balsamo, G.; Beljaars, A.; Engelen, R.; Jones, L.; Peuch, V.H.; Chevallier, F.; Ciais, P.; Paris, J.D.; Sherlock, V.

    2014-01-01

    A new global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) real-time forecast is now available as part of the preoperational Monitoring of Atmospheric Composition and Climate - Interim Implementation (MACC-II) service using the infrastructure of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). One of the strengths of the CO 2 forecasting system is that the land surface, including vegetation CO 2 fluxes, is modelled online within the IFS. Other CO 2 fluxes are prescribed from inventories and from off-line statistical and physical models. The CO 2 forecast also benefits from the transport modelling from a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) system initialized daily with a wealth of meteorological observations. This paper describes the capability of the forecast in modelling the variability of CO 2 on different temporal and spatial scales compared to observations. The modulation of the amplitude of the CO 2 diurnal cycle by near-surface winds and boundary layer height is generally well represented in the forecast. The CO 2 forecast also has high skill in simulating day-to-day synoptic variability. In the atmospheric boundary layer, this skill is significantly enhanced by modelling the day-to-day variability of the CO 2 fluxes from vegetation compared to using equivalent monthly mean fluxes with a diurnal cycle. However, biases in the modelled CO 2 fluxes also lead to accumulating errors in the CO 2 forecast. These biases vary with season with an underestimation of the amplitude of the seasonal cycle both for the CO 2 fluxes compared to total optimized fluxes and the atmospheric CO 2 compared to observations. The largest biases in the atmospheric CO 2 forecast are found in spring, corresponding to the onset of the growing season in the Northern Hemisphere. In the future, the forecast will be re-initialized regularly with atmospheric CO 2 analyses based on the assimilation of CO 2 products retrieved from satellite

  3. Building a Global Ocean Science Education Network

    Scowcroft, G. A.; Tuddenham, P. T.; Pizziconi, R.

    2016-02-01

    It is imperative for ocean science education to be closely linked to ocean science research. This is especially important for research that addresses global concerns that cross national boundaries, including climate related issues. The results of research on these critical topics must find its way to the public, educators, and students of all ages around the globe. To facilitate this, opportunities are needed for ocean scientists and educators to convene and identify priorities and strategies for ocean science education. On June 26 and 27, 2015 the first Global Ocean Science Education (GOSE) Workshop was convened in the United States at the University of Rhode Island Graduate School of Oceanography. The workshop, sponsored by the Consortium for Ocean Science Exploration and Engagement (COSEE) and the College of Exploration, had over 75 participants representing 15 nations. The workshop addressed critical global ocean science topics, current ocean science research and education priorities, advanced communication technologies, and leveraging international ocean research technologies. In addition, panels discussed elementary, secondary, undergraduate, graduate, and public education across the ocean basins with emphasis on opportunities for international collaboration. Special presentation topics included advancements in tropical cyclone forecasting, collaborations among Pacific Islands, ocean science for coastal resiliency, and trans-Atlantic collaboration. This presentation will focus on workshop outcomes as well as activities for growing a global ocean science education network. A summary of the workshop report will also be provided. The dates and location for the 2016 GOES Workshop will be announced. See http://www.coexploration.net/gose/index.html

  4. Practical global oceanic state estimation

    Wunsch, Carl; Heimbach, Patrick

    2007-06-01

    The problem of oceanographic state estimation, by means of an ocean general circulation model (GCM) and a multitude of observations, is described and contrasted with the meteorological process of data assimilation. In practice, all such methods reduce, on the computer, to forms of least-squares. The global oceanographic problem is at the present time focussed primarily on smoothing, rather than forecasting, and the data types are unlike meteorological ones. As formulated in the consortium Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO), an automatic differentiation tool is used to calculate the so-called adjoint code of the GCM, and the method of Lagrange multipliers used to render the problem one of unconstrained least-squares minimization. Major problems today lie less with the numerical algorithms (least-squares problems can be solved by many means) than with the issues of data and model error. Results of ongoing calculations covering the period of the World Ocean Circulation Experiment, and including among other data, satellite altimetry from TOPEX/POSEIDON, Jason-1, ERS- 1/2, ENVISAT, and GFO, a global array of profiling floats from the Argo program, and satellite gravity data from the GRACE mission, suggest that the solutions are now useful for scientific purposes. Both methodology and applications are developing in a number of different directions.

  5. Comparing Forecasts of the Global Impacts of Climate Change

    Mendelsohn, R.; Williams, L.

    2004-01-01

    This paper utilizes the predictions of several Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models and the Global Impact Model to create forecasts of the global market impacts from climate change. The forecasts of market impacts in 2100 vary considerably depending on climate scenarios and climate impact sensitivity. The models do concur that tropical nations will be hurt, temperate nations will be barely affected, and high latitude nations will benefit. Although the size of these effects varies a great deal across models, the beneficial and harmful effects are offsetting, so that the net impact on the globe is relatively small in almost all outcomes. Looking only at market impacts, the forecasts suggest that while the global net benefits of abatement are small, the distribution of damages suggests a large equity problem that could be addressed through a compensation program. The large uncertainty surrounding these forecasts further suggests that continued monitoring of both the climate and impacts is worthwhile

  6. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) NCEP-Global Forecast System (GFS) 0-10cm Soil-Moisture Forecast Product

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Forecast System (GFS) forecast 0-10cm soil-moisture data at 37.5km resolution is created at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center for the purpose of near...

  7. Forecasting effects of global warming on biodiversity

    Botkin, D.B.; Saxe, H.; Araújo, M.B.

    2007-01-01

    The demand for accurate forecasting of the effects of global warming on biodiversity is growing, but current methods for forecasting have limitations. In this article, we compare and discuss the different uses of four forecasting methods: (1) models that consider species individually, (2) niche...... and theoretical ecological results suggest that many species could be at risk from global warming, during the recent ice ages surprisingly few species became extinct. The potential resolution of this conundrum gives insights into the requirements for more accurate and reliable forecasting. Our eight suggestions...

  8. Elements of a coastal ocean forecasting system for India

    Shetye, S.R.; Radhakrishnan, K.

    After about four decades of investment in infrastructure for ocean research, an appropriate initiative for India now would be to build a coastal ocean forecasting system to support the country's myriad activities in its Exclusive Economic Zone...

  9. Ocean City, Maryland Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Ocean City, Maryland Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model....

  10. The oceanic forecasting system near the Shimokita Peninsula, Japan

    In, Teiji; Nakayama, Tomoharu; Matsuura, Yasutaka; Shima, Shigeki; Ishikawa, Yoichi; Awaji, Toshiyuki; Kobayashi, Takuya; Kawamura, Hideyuki; Togawa, Orihiko; Toyoda, Takahiro

    2007-01-01

    The oceanic forecasting system off the Shimokita Peninsula was constructed. To evaluate the performance of this system, we carried out the hindcast experiment for the oceanic conditions in 2003. The results showed the system had good reproducibility. Especially, it was able to reproduce the feature of seasonal variation of the Tsugaru Warm Water (TWW). We expect it has enough performance in actual forecasting. (author)

  11. A global flash flood forecasting system

    Baugh, Calum; Pappenberger, Florian; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Hewson, Tim; Zsoter, Ervin

    2016-04-01

    The sudden and devastating nature of flash flood events means it is imperative to provide early warnings such as those derived from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts. Currently such systems exist on basin, national and continental scales in Europe, North America and Australia but rely on high resolution NWP forecasts or rainfall-radar nowcasting, neither of which have global coverage. To produce global flash flood forecasts this work investigates the possibility of using forecasts from a global NWP system. In particular we: (i) discuss how global NWP can be used for flash flood forecasting and discuss strengths and weaknesses; (ii) demonstrate how a robust evaluation can be performed given the rarity of the event; (iii) highlight the challenges and opportunities in communicating flash flood uncertainty to decision makers; and (iv) explore future developments which would significantly improve global flash flood forecasting. The proposed forecast system uses ensemble surface runoff forecasts from the ECMWF H-TESSEL land surface scheme. A flash flood index is generated using the ERIC (Enhanced Runoff Index based on Climatology) methodology [Raynaud et al., 2014]. This global methodology is applied to a series of flash floods across southern Europe. Results from the system are compared against warnings produced using the higher resolution COSMO-LEPS limited area model. The global system is evaluated by comparing forecasted warning locations against a flash flood database of media reports created in partnership with floodlist.com. To deal with the lack of objectivity in media reports we carefully assess the suitability of different skill scores and apply spatial uncertainty thresholds to the observations. To communicate the uncertainties of the flash flood system output we experiment with a dynamic region-growing algorithm. This automatically clusters regions of similar return period exceedence probabilities, thus presenting the at-risk areas at a spatial

  12. Global-warming forecasting models

    Moeller, K.P.

    1992-01-01

    In spite of an annual man-made quantity of about 20 billion tons, carbon dioxide has remained a trace gas in the atmosphere (350 ppm at present). The reliability of model calculations which forecast temperatures is dicussed in view of the world-wide increase in carbon dioxides. Computer simulations reveal a general, serious threat to the future of mankind. (DG) [de

  13. Surface wave effect on the upper ocean in marine forecast

    Wang, Guansuo; Qiao, Fangli; Xia, Changshui; Zhao, Chang

    2015-04-01

    An Operational Coupled Forecast System for the seas off China and adjacent (OCFS-C) is constructed based on the paralleled wave-circulation coupled model, which is tested with comprehensive experiments and operational since November 1st, 2007. The main feature of the system is that the wave-induced mixing is considered in circulation model. Daily analyses and three day forecasts of three-dimensional temperature, salinity, currents and wave height are produced. Coverage is global at 1/2 degreed resolution with nested models up to 1/24 degree resolution in China Sea. Daily remote sensing sea surface temperatures (SST) are taken to relax to an analytical product as hot restarting fields for OCFS-C by the Nudging techniques. Forecasting-data inter-comparisons are performed to measure the effectiveness of OCFS-C in predicting upper-ocean quantities including SST, mixed layer depth (MLD) and subsurface temperature. The variety of performance with lead time and real-time is discussed as well using the daily statistic results for SST between forecast and satellite data. Several buoy observations and many Argo profiles are used for this validation. Except the conventional statistical metrics, non-dimension skill scores (SS) is taken to estimate forecast skill. Model SST comparisons with more one year-long SST time series from 2 buoys given a large SS value (more than 0.90). And skill in predicting the seasonal variability of SST is confirmed. Model subsurface temperature comparisons with that from a lot of Argo profiles indicated that OCFS-C has low skill in predicting subsurface temperatures between 80m and 120m. Inter-comparisons of MLD reveal that MLD from model is shallower than that from Argo profiles by about 12m. QCFS-C is successful and steady in predicting MLD. The daily statistic results for SST between 1-d, 2-d and 3-d forecast and data is adopted to describe variability of Skill in predicting SST with lead time or real time. In a word QCFS-C shows reasonable

  14. Performance of the ocean state forecast system at Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services

    Nair, T.M.B.; Sirisha, P.; Sandhya, K.G.; Srinivas, K.; SanilKumar, V.; Sabique, L.; Nherakkol, A.; KrishnaPrasad, B.; RakhiKumari; Jeyakumar, C.; Kaviyazhahu, K.; RameshKumar, M.; Harikumar, R.; Shenoi, S.S.C.; Nayak, S.

    The reliability of the operational Ocean State Forecast system at the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) during tropical cyclones that affect the coastline of India is described in this article. The performance...

  15. Continental and global scale flood forecasting systems

    Emerton, Rebecca E.; Stephens, Elisabeth M.; Pappenberger, Florian; Pagano, Thomas P.; Weerts, A.H.; Wood, A.; Salamon, Peter; Brown, James D.; Hjerdt, Niclas; Donnelly, Chantal; Baugh, Calum A.; Cloke, Hannah L.

    2016-01-01

    Floods are the most frequent of natural disasters, affecting millions of people across the globe every year. The anticipation and forecasting of floods at the global scale is crucial to preparing for severe events and providing early awareness where local flood models and warning services may not

  16. AIRS Impact on the Analysis and Forecast Track of Tropical Cyclone Nargis in a Global Data Assimilation and Forecasting System

    Reale, O.; Lau, W.K.; Susskind, J.; Brin, E.; Liu, E.; Riishojgaard, L. P.; Rosenburg, R.; Fuentes, M.

    2009-01-01

    Tropical cyclones in the northern Indian Ocean pose serious challenges to operational weather forecasting systems, partly due to their shorter lifespan and more erratic track, compared to those in the Atlantic and the Pacific. Moreover, the automated analyses of cyclones over the northern Indian Ocean, produced by operational global data assimilation systems (DASs), are generally of inferior quality than in other basins. In this work it is shown that the assimilation of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) temperature retrievals under partial cloudy conditions can significantly impact the representation of the cyclone Nargis (which caused devastating loss of life in Myanmar in May 2008) in a global DAS. Forecasts produced from these improved analyses by a global model produce substantially smaller track errors. The impact of the assimilation of clear-sky radiances on the same DAS and forecasting system is positive, but smaller than the one obtained by ingestion of AIRS retrievals, possibly due to poorer coverage.

  17. Oceanic sources of predictability for MJO propagation across the Maritime Continent in a subset of S2S forecast models

    DeMott, C. A.; Klingaman, N. P.

    2017-12-01

    Skillful prediction of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) passage across the Maritime Continent (MC) has important implications for global forecasts of high-impact weather events, such as atmospheric rivers and heat waves. The North American teleconnection response to the MJO is strongest when MJO convection is located in the western Pacific Ocean, but many climate and forecast models are deficient in their simulation of MC-crossing MJO events. Compared to atmosphere-only general circulation models (AGCMs), MJO simulation skill generally improves with the addition of ocean feedbacks in coupled GCMs (CGCMs). Using observations, previous studies have noted that the degree of ocean coupling may vary considerably from one MJO event to the next. The coupling mechanisms may be linked to the presence of ocean Equatorial Rossby waves, the sign and amplitude of Equatorial surface currents, and the upper ocean temperature and salinity profiles. In this study, we assess the role of ocean feedbacks to MJO prediction skill using a subset of CGCMs participating in the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Project database. Oceanic observational and reanalysis datasets are used to characterize the upper ocean background state for observed MJO events that do and do not propagate beyond the MC. The ability of forecast models to capture the oceanic influence on the MJO is first assessed by quantifying SST forecast skill. Next, a set of previously developed air-sea interaction diagnostics is applied to model output to measure the role of SST perturbations on the forecast MJO. The "SST effect" in forecast MJO events is compared to that obtained from reanalysis data. Leveraging all ensemble members of a given forecast helps disentangle oceanic model biases from atmospheric model biases, both of which can influence the expression of ocean feedbacks in coupled forecast systems. Results of this study will help identify areas of needed model improvement for improved MJO forecasts.

  18. An Experimental Real-Time Ocean Nowcast/Forecast System for Intra America Seas

    Ko, D. S.; Preller, R. H.; Martin, P. J.

    2003-04-01

    An experimental real-time Ocean Nowcast/Forecast System has been developed for the Intra America Seas (IASNFS). The area of coverage includes the Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico and the Straits of Florida. The system produces nowcast and up to 72 hours forecast the sea level variation, 3D ocean current, temperature and salinity fields. IASNFS consists an 1/24 degree (~5 km), 41-level sigma-z data-assimilating ocean model based on NCOM. For daily nowcast/forecast the model is restarted from previous nowcast. Once model is restarted it continuously assimilates the synthetic temperature/salinity profiles generated by a data analysis model called MODAS to produce nowcast. Real-time data come from satellite altimeter (GFO, TOPEX/Poseidon, ERS-2) sea surface height anomaly and AVHRR sea surface temperature. Three hourly surface heat fluxes, including solar radiation, wind stresses and sea level air pressure from NOGAPS/FNMOC are applied for surface forcing. Forecasts are produced with available NOGAPS forecasts. Once the nowcast/forecast are produced they are distributed through the Internet via the updated web pages. The open boundary conditions including sea surface elevation, transport, temperature, salinity and currents are provided by the NRL 1/8 degree Global NCOM which is operated daily. An one way coupling scheme is used to ingest those boundary conditions into the IAS model. There are 41 rivers with monthly discharges included in the IASNFS.

  19. C-GLORSv5: an improved multipurpose global ocean eddy-permitting physical reanalysis

    A. Storto; S. Masina

    2016-01-01

    Global ocean reanalyses combine in situ and satellite ocean observations with a general circulation ocean model to estimate the time-evolving state of the ocean, and they represent a valuable tool for a variety of applications, ranging from climate monitoring and process studies to downstream applications, initialization of long-range forecasts and regional studies. The purpose of this paper is to document the recent upgrade of C-GLORS (version 5), the latest ocean reanalysi...

  20. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia.

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y; Priedhorsky, Reid

    2014-11-01

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with r2 up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.

  1. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia.

    Nicholas Generous

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with r2 up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.

  2. Teaching ocean wave forecasting using computer-generated visualization and animation—Part 1: sea forecasting

    Whitford, Dennis J.

    2002-05-01

    Ocean waves are the most recognized phenomena in oceanography. Unfortunately, undergraduate study of ocean wave dynamics and forecasting involves mathematics and physics and therefore can pose difficulties with some students because of the subject's interrelated dependence on time and space. Verbal descriptions and two-dimensional illustrations are often insufficient for student comprehension. Computer-generated visualization and animation offer a visually intuitive and pedagogically sound medium to present geoscience, yet there are very few oceanographic examples. A two-part article series is offered to explain ocean wave forecasting using computer-generated visualization and animation. This paper, Part 1, addresses forecasting of sea wave conditions and serves as the basis for the more difficult topic of swell wave forecasting addressed in Part 2. Computer-aided visualization and animation, accompanied by oral explanation, are a welcome pedagogical supplement to more traditional methods of instruction. In this article, several MATLAB ® software programs have been written to visualize and animate development and comparison of wave spectra, wave interference, and forecasting of sea conditions. These programs also set the stage for the more advanced and difficult animation topics in Part 2. The programs are user-friendly, interactive, easy to modify, and developed as instructional tools. By using these software programs, teachers can enhance their instruction of these topics with colorful visualizations and animation without requiring an extensive background in computer programming.

  3. Seasonal Forecasting of Fire Weather Based on a New Global Fire Weather Database

    Dowdy, Andrew J.; Field, Robert D.; Spessa, Allan C.

    2016-01-01

    Seasonal forecasting of fire weather is examined based on a recently produced global database of the Fire Weather Index (FWI) system beginning in 1980. Seasonal average values of the FWI are examined in relation to measures of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The results are used to examine seasonal forecasts of fire weather conditions throughout the world.

  4. Probabilistic energy forecasting: Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014 and beyond

    Hong, Tao; Pinson, Pierre; Fan, Shu

    2016-01-01

    The energy industry has been going through a significant modernization process over the last decade. Its infrastructure is being upgraded rapidly. The supply, demand and prices are becoming more volatile and less predictable than ever before. Even its business model is being challenged fundamenta......The energy industry has been going through a significant modernization process over the last decade. Its infrastructure is being upgraded rapidly. The supply, demand and prices are becoming more volatile and less predictable than ever before. Even its business model is being challenged...... fundamentally. In this competitive and dynamic environment, many decision-making processes rely on probabilistic forecasts to quantify the uncertain future. Although most of the papers in the energy forecasting literature focus on point or singlevalued forecasts, the research interest in probabilistic energy...

  5. Teaching ocean wave forecasting using computer-generated visualization and animation—Part 2: swell forecasting

    Whitford, Dennis J.

    2002-05-01

    This paper, the second of a two-part series, introduces undergraduate students to ocean wave forecasting using interactive computer-generated visualization and animation. Verbal descriptions and two-dimensional illustrations are often insufficient for student comprehension. Fortunately, the introduction of computers in the geosciences provides a tool for addressing this problem. Computer-generated visualization and animation, accompanied by oral explanation, have been shown to be a pedagogical improvement to more traditional methods of instruction. Cartographic science and other disciplines using geographical information systems have been especially aggressive in pioneering the use of visualization and animation, whereas oceanography has not. This paper will focus on the teaching of ocean swell wave forecasting, often considered a difficult oceanographic topic due to the mathematics and physics required, as well as its interdependence on time and space. Several MATLAB ® software programs are described and offered to visualize and animate group speed, frequency dispersion, angular dispersion, propagation, and wave height forecasting of deep water ocean swell waves. Teachers may use these interactive visualizations and animations without requiring an extensive background in computer programming.

  6. The Global Signature of Ocean Wave Spectra

    Portilla-Yandún, Jesús

    2018-01-01

    A global atlas of ocean wave spectra is developed and presented. The development is based on a new technique for deriving wave spectral statistics, which is applied to the extensive ERA-Interim database from European Centre of Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Spectral statistics is based on the idea of long-term wave systems, which are unique and distinct at every geographical point. The identification of those wave systems allows their separation from the overall spectrum using the partition technique. Their further characterization is made using standard integrated parameters, which turn out much more meaningful when applied to the individual components than to the total spectrum. The parameters developed include the density distribution of spectral partitions, which is the main descriptor; the identified wave systems; the individual distribution of the characteristic frequencies, directions, wave height, wave age, seasonal variability of wind and waves; return periods derived from extreme value analysis; and crossing-sea probabilities. This information is made available in web format for public use at http://www.modemat.epn.edu.ec/#/nereo. It is found that wave spectral statistics offers the possibility to synthesize data while providing a direct and comprehensive view of the local and regional wave conditions.

  7. Statistical forecasting of met-ocean parameters in the Cochin estuarine system, southwest coast of India

    Srinivas, K.; Revichandran, C.; DineshKumar, P.K.

    Three different statistical forecasting techniques - autoregressive, sinusoidal and exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) were used to forecast monthly values of meteorological and oceanographic (met-ocean) parameters viz. sea surface...

  8. Intercomparison of Operational Ocean Forecasting Systems in the framework of GODAE

    Hernandez, F.

    2009-04-01

    One of the main benefits of the GODAE 10-year activity is the implementation of ocean forecasting systems in several countries. In 2008, several systems are operated routinely, at global or basin scale. Among them, the BLUElink (Australia), HYCOM (USA), MOVE/MRI.COM (Japan), Mercator (France), FOAM (United Kingdom), TOPAZ (Norway) and C-NOOFS (Canada) systems offered to demonstrate their operational feasibility by performing an intercomparison exercise during a three months period (February to April 2008). The objectives were: a) to show that operational ocean forecasting systems are operated routinely in different countries, and that they can interact; b) to perform in a similar way a scientific validation aimed to assess the quality of the ocean estimates, the performance, and forecasting capabilities of each system; and c) to learn from this intercomparison exercise to increase inter-operability and collaboration in real time. The intercomparison relies on the assessment strategy developed for the EU MERSEA project, where diagnostics over the global ocean have been revisited by the GODAE contributors. This approach, based on metrics, allow for each system: a) to verify if ocean estimates are consistent with the current general knowledge of the dynamics; and b) to evaluate the accuracy of delivered products, compared to space and in-situ observations. Using the same diagnostics also allows one to intercompare the results from each system consistently. Water masses and general circulation description by the different systems are consistent with WOA05 Levitus climatology. The large scale dynamics (tropical, subtropical and subpolar gyres ) are also correctly reproduced. At short scales, benefit of high resolution systems can be evidenced on the turbulent eddy field, in particular when compared to eddy kinetic energy deduced from satellite altimetry of drifter observations. Comparisons to high resolution SST products show some discrepancies on ocean surface

  9. NOAA's Role in Sustaining Global Ocean Observations: Future Plans for OAR's Ocean Observing and Monitoring Division

    Todd, James; Legler, David; Piotrowicz, Stephen; Raymond, Megan; Smith, Emily; Tedesco, Kathy; Thurston, Sidney

    2017-04-01

    The Ocean Observing and Monitoring Division (OOMD, formerly the Climate Observation Division) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Program Office provides long-term, high-quality global observations, climate information and products for researchers, forecasters, assessments and other users of environmental information. In this context, OOMD-supported activities serve a foundational role in an enterprise that aims to advance 1) scientific understanding, 2) monitoring and prediction of climate and 3) understanding of potential impacts to enable a climate resilient society. Leveraging approximately 50% of the Global Ocean Observing System, OOMD employs an internationally-coordinated, multi-institution global strategy that brings together data from multiple platforms including surface drifting buoys, Argo profiling floats, flux/transport moorings (RAMA, PIRATA, OceanSITES), GLOSS tide gauges, SOOP-XBT and SOOP-CO2, ocean gliders and repeat hydrographic sections (GO-SHIP). OOMD also engages in outreach, education and capacity development activities to deliver training on the social-economic applications of ocean data. This presentation will highlight recent activities and plans for 2017 and beyond.

  10. Assessment of marine weather forecasts over the Indian sector of Southern Ocean

    Gera, Anitha; Mahapatra, D. K.; Sharma, Kuldeep; Prakash, Satya; Mitra, A. K.; Iyengar, G. R.; Rajagopal, E. N.; Anilkumar, N.

    2017-09-01

    The Southern Ocean (SO) is one of the important regions where significant processes and feedbacks of the Earth's climate take place. Expeditions to the SO provide useful data for improving global weather/climate simulations and understanding many processes. Some of the uncertainties in these weather/climate models arise during the first few days of simulation/forecast and do not grow much further. NCMRWF issued real-time five day weather forecasts of mean sea level pressure, surface winds, winds at 500 hPa & 850 hPa and rainfall, daily to NCAOR to provide guidance for their expedition to Indian sector of SO during the austral summer of 2014-2015. Evaluation of the skill of these forecasts indicates possible error growth in the atmospheric model at shorter time scales. The error growth is assessed using the model analysis/reanalysis, satellite data and observations made during the expedition. The observed variability of sub-seasonal rainfall associated with mid-latitude systems is seen to exhibit eastward propagations and are well reproduced in the model forecasts. All cyclonic disturbances including the sub-polar lows and tropical cyclones that occurred during this period were well captured in the model forecasts. Overall, this model performs reasonably well over the Indian sector of the SO in medium range time scale.

  11. Forecasting Global Rainfall for Points Using ECMWF's Global Ensemble and Its Applications in Flood Forecasting

    Pillosu, F. M.; Hewson, T.; Mazzetti, C.

    2017-12-01

    Prediction of local extreme rainfall has historically been the remit of nowcasting and high resolution limited area modelling, which represent only limited areas, may not be spatially accurate, give reasonable results only for limited lead times (based statistical post-processing software ("ecPoint-Rainfall, ecPR", operational in 2017) that uses ECMWF Ensemble (ENS) output to deliver global probabilistic rainfall forecasts for points up to day 10. Firstly, ecPR applies a new notion of "remote calibration", which 1) allows us to replicate a multi-centennial training period using only one year of data, and 2) provides forecasts for anywhere in the world. Secondly, the software applies an understanding of how different rainfall generation mechanisms lead to different degrees of sub-grid variability in rainfall totals, and of where biases in the model can be improved upon. A long-term verification has shown that the post-processed rainfall has better reliability and resolution at every lead time if compared with ENS, and for large totals, ecPR outputs have the same skill at day 5 that the raw ENS has at day 1 (ROC area metric). ecPR could be used as input for hydrological models if its probabilistic output is modified accordingly to the inputs requirements for hydrological models. Indeed, ecPR does not provide information on where the highest total is likely to occur inside the gridbox, nor on the spatial distribution of rainfall values nearby. "Scenario forecasts" could be a solution. They are derived from locating the rainfall peak in sensitive positions (e.g. urban areas), and then redistributing the remaining quantities in the gridbox modifying traditional spatial correlation characterization methodologies (e.g. variogram analysis) in order to take account, for instance, of the type of rainfall forecast (stratiform, convective). Such an approach could be a turning point in the field of medium-range global real-time riverine flood forecasts. This presentation will

  12. Ovis: A framework for visual analysis of ocean forecast ensembles

    Hollt, Thomas; Magdy, Ahmed; Zhan, Peng; Chen, Guoning; Gopalakrishnan, Ganesh; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Hansen, Charles D.; Hadwiger, Markus

    2014-01-01

    We present a novel integrated visualization system that enables interactive visual analysis of ensemble simulations of the sea surface height that is used in ocean forecasting. The position of eddies can be derived directly from the sea surface height and our visualization approach enables their interactive exploration and analysis.The behavior of eddies is important in different application settings of which we present two in this paper. First, we show an application for interactive planning of placement as well as operation of off-shore structures using real-world ensemble simulation data of the Gulf of Mexico. Off-shore structures, such as those used for oil exploration, are vulnerable to hazards caused by eddies, and the oil and gas industry relies on ocean forecasts for efficient operations. We enable analysis of the spatial domain, as well as the temporal evolution, for planning the placement and operation of structures.Eddies are also important for marine life. They transport water over large distances and with it also heat and other physical properties as well as biological organisms. In the second application we present the usefulness of our tool, which could be used for planning the paths of autonomous underwater vehicles, so called gliders, for marine scientists to study simulation data of the largely unexplored Red Sea. © 1995-2012 IEEE.

  13. Ovis: A Framework for Visual Analysis of Ocean Forecast Ensembles.

    Höllt, Thomas; Magdy, Ahmed; Zhan, Peng; Chen, Guoning; Gopalakrishnan, Ganesh; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Hansen, Charles D; Hadwiger, Markus

    2014-08-01

    We present a novel integrated visualization system that enables interactive visual analysis of ensemble simulations of the sea surface height that is used in ocean forecasting. The position of eddies can be derived directly from the sea surface height and our visualization approach enables their interactive exploration and analysis.The behavior of eddies is important in different application settings of which we present two in this paper. First, we show an application for interactive planning of placement as well as operation of off-shore structures using real-world ensemble simulation data of the Gulf of Mexico. Off-shore structures, such as those used for oil exploration, are vulnerable to hazards caused by eddies, and the oil and gas industry relies on ocean forecasts for efficient operations. We enable analysis of the spatial domain, as well as the temporal evolution, for planning the placement and operation of structures.Eddies are also important for marine life. They transport water over large distances and with it also heat and other physical properties as well as biological organisms. In the second application we present the usefulness of our tool, which could be used for planning the paths of autonomous underwater vehicles, so called gliders, for marine scientists to study simulation data of the largely unexplored Red Sea.

  14. Ovis: A framework for visual analysis of ocean forecast ensembles

    Hollt, Thomas

    2014-08-01

    We present a novel integrated visualization system that enables interactive visual analysis of ensemble simulations of the sea surface height that is used in ocean forecasting. The position of eddies can be derived directly from the sea surface height and our visualization approach enables their interactive exploration and analysis.The behavior of eddies is important in different application settings of which we present two in this paper. First, we show an application for interactive planning of placement as well as operation of off-shore structures using real-world ensemble simulation data of the Gulf of Mexico. Off-shore structures, such as those used for oil exploration, are vulnerable to hazards caused by eddies, and the oil and gas industry relies on ocean forecasts for efficient operations. We enable analysis of the spatial domain, as well as the temporal evolution, for planning the placement and operation of structures.Eddies are also important for marine life. They transport water over large distances and with it also heat and other physical properties as well as biological organisms. In the second application we present the usefulness of our tool, which could be used for planning the paths of autonomous underwater vehicles, so called gliders, for marine scientists to study simulation data of the largely unexplored Red Sea. © 1995-2012 IEEE.

  15. What Fraction of Global Fire Activity Can Be Forecast Using Sea Surface Temperatures?

    Chen, Y.; Randerson, J. T.; Morton, D. C.; Andela, N.; Giglio, L.

    2015-12-01

    Variations in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) can influence climate dynamics in local and remote land areas, and thus influence fire-climate interactions that govern burned area. SST information has been recently used in statistical models to create seasonal outlooks of fire season severity in South America and as the initial condition for dynamical model predictions of fire activity in Indonesia. However, the degree to which large-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions can influence burned area in other continental regions has not been systematically explored. Here we quantified the amount of global burned area that can be predicted using SSTs in 14 different oceans regions as statistical predictors. We first examined lagged correlations between GFED4s burned area and the 14 ocean climate indices (OCIs) individually. The maximum correlations from different OCIs were used to construct a global map of fire predictability. About half of the global burned area can be forecast by this approach 3 months before the peak burning month (with a Pearson's r of 0.5 or higher), with the highest levels of predictability in Central America and Equatorial Asia. Several hotspots of predictability were identified using k-means cluster analysis. Within these regions, we tested the improvements of the forecast by using two OCIs from different oceans. Our forecast models were based on near-real-time SST data and may therefore support the development of new seasonal outlooks for fire activity that can aid the sustainable management of these fire-prone ecosystems.

  16. State of Climate 2011 - Global Ocean Phytoplankton

    Siegel, D. A.; Antoine, D.; Behrenfeld, M. J.; d'Andon, O. H. Fanton; Fields, E.; Franz, B. A.; Goryl, P.; Maritorena, S.; McClain, C. R.; Wang, M.; hide

    2012-01-01

    Phytoplankton photosynthesis in the sun lit upper layer of the global ocean is the overwhelmingly dominant source of organic matter that fuels marine ecosystems. Phytoplankton contribute roughly half of the global (land and ocean) net primary production (NPP; gross photosynthesis minus plant respiration) and phytoplankton carbon fixation is the primary conduit through which atmospheric CO2 concentrations interact with the ocean s carbon cycle. Phytoplankton productivity depends on the availability of sunlight, macronutrients (e.g., nitrogen, phosphorous), and micronutrients (e.g., iron), and thus is sensitive to climate-driven changes in the delivery of these resources to the euphotic zone

  17. Improved Global Ocean Color Using Polymer Algorithm

    Steinmetz, Francois; Ramon, Didier; Deschamps, ierre-Yves; Stum, Jacques

    2010-12-01

    A global ocean color product has been developed based on the use of the POLYMER algorithm to correct atmospheric scattering and sun glint and to process the data to a Level 2 ocean color product. Thanks to the use of this algorithm, the coverage and accuracy of the MERIS ocean color product have been significantly improved when compared to the standard product, therefore increasing its usefulness for global ocean monitor- ing applications like GLOBCOLOUR. We will present the latest developments of the algorithm, its first application to MODIS data and its validation against in-situ data from the MERMAID database. Examples will be shown of global NRT chlorophyll maps produced by CLS with POLYMER for operational applications like fishing or oil and gas industry, as well as its use by Scripps for a NASA study of the Beaufort and Chukchi seas.

  18. Global Ocean Carbon and Biogeochemistry Coordination

    Telszewski, Maciej; Tanhua, Toste; Palacz, Artur

    2016-04-01

    The complexity of the marine carbon cycle and its numerous connections to carbon's atmospheric and terrestrial pathways means that a wide range of approaches have to be used in order to establish it's qualitative and quantitative role in the global climate system. Ocean carbon and biogeochemistry research, observations, and modelling are conducted at national, regional, and global levels to quantify the global ocean uptake of atmospheric CO2 and to understand controls of this process, the variability of uptake and vulnerability of carbon fluxes into the ocean. These science activities require support by a sustained, international effort that provides a central communication forum and coordination services to facilitate the compatibility and comparability of results from individual efforts and development of the ocean carbon data products that can be integrated with the terrestrial, atmospheric and human dimensions components of the global carbon cycle. The International Ocean Carbon Coordination Project (IOCCP) was created in 2005 by the IOC of UNESCO and the Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research. IOCCP provides an international, program-independent forum for global coordination of ocean carbon and biogeochemistry observations and integration with global carbon cycle science programs. The IOCCP coordinates an ever-increasing set of observations-related activities in the following domains: underway observations of biogeochemical water properties, ocean interior observations, ship-based time-series observations, large-scale ocean acidification monitoring, inorganic nutrients observations, biogeochemical instruments and autonomous sensors and data and information creation. Our contribution is through the facilitation of the development of globally acceptable strategies, methodologies, practices and standards homogenizing efforts of the research community and scientific advisory groups as well as integrating the ocean biogeochemistry observations with the

  19. An experimental system for flood risk forecasting at global scale

    Alfieri, L.; Dottori, F.; Kalas, M.; Lorini, V.; Bianchi, A.; Hirpa, F. A.; Feyen, L.; Salamon, P.

    2016-12-01

    Global flood forecasting and monitoring systems are nowadays a reality and are being applied by an increasing range of users and practitioners in disaster risk management. Furthermore, there is an increasing demand from users to integrate flood early warning systems with risk based forecasts, combining streamflow estimations with expected inundated areas and flood impacts. To this end, we have developed an experimental procedure for near-real time flood mapping and impact assessment based on the daily forecasts issued by the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). The methodology translates GloFAS streamflow forecasts into event-based flood hazard maps based on the predicted flow magnitude and the forecast lead time and a database of flood hazard maps with global coverage. Flood hazard maps are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information to derive flood risk. Impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in terms of flood prone areas, potential economic damage, and affected population, infrastructures and cities. To further increase the reliability of the proposed methodology we integrated model-based estimations with an innovative methodology for social media monitoring, which allows for real-time verification of impact forecasts. The preliminary tests provided good results and showed the potential of the developed real-time operational procedure in helping emergency response and management. In particular, the link with social media is crucial for improving the accuracy of impact predictions.

  20. On the assimilation of absolute geodetic dynamic topography in a global ocean model: impact on the deep ocean state

    Androsov, Alexey; Nerger, Lars; Schnur, Reiner; Schröter, Jens; Albertella, Alberta; Rummel, Reiner; Savcenko, Roman; Bosch, Wolfgang; Skachko, Sergey; Danilov, Sergey

    2018-05-01

    General ocean circulation models are not perfect. Forced with observed atmospheric fluxes they gradually drift away from measured distributions of temperature and salinity. We suggest data assimilation of absolute dynamical ocean topography (DOT) observed from space geodetic missions as an option to reduce these differences. Sea surface information of DOT is transferred into the deep ocean by defining the analysed ocean state as a weighted average of an ensemble of fully consistent model solutions using an error-subspace ensemble Kalman filter technique. Success of the technique is demonstrated by assimilation into a global configuration of the ocean circulation model FESOM over 1 year. The dynamic ocean topography data are obtained from a combination of multi-satellite altimetry and geoid measurements. The assimilation result is assessed using independent temperature and salinity analysis derived from profiling buoys of the AGRO float data set. The largest impact of the assimilation occurs at the first few analysis steps where both the model ocean topography and the steric height (i.e. temperature and salinity) are improved. The continued data assimilation over 1 year further improves the model state gradually. Deep ocean fields quickly adjust in a sustained manner: A model forecast initialized from the model state estimated by the data assimilation after only 1 month shows that improvements induced by the data assimilation remain in the model state for a long time. Even after 11 months, the modelled ocean topography and temperature fields show smaller errors than the model forecast without any data assimilation.

  1. Ocean plankton. Structure and function of the global ocean microbiome.

    Sunagawa, Shinichi; Coelho, Luis Pedro; Chaffron, Samuel; Kultima, Jens Roat; Labadie, Karine; Salazar, Guillem; Djahanschiri, Bardya; Zeller, Georg; Mende, Daniel R; Alberti, Adriana; Cornejo-Castillo, Francisco M; Costea, Paul I; Cruaud, Corinne; d'Ovidio, Francesco; Engelen, Stefan; Ferrera, Isabel; Gasol, Josep M; Guidi, Lionel; Hildebrand, Falk; Kokoszka, Florian; Lepoivre, Cyrille; Lima-Mendez, Gipsi; Poulain, Julie; Poulos, Bonnie T; Royo-Llonch, Marta; Sarmento, Hugo; Vieira-Silva, Sara; Dimier, Céline; Picheral, Marc; Searson, Sarah; Kandels-Lewis, Stefanie; Bowler, Chris; de Vargas, Colomban; Gorsky, Gabriel; Grimsley, Nigel; Hingamp, Pascal; Iudicone, Daniele; Jaillon, Olivier; Not, Fabrice; Ogata, Hiroyuki; Pesant, Stephane; Speich, Sabrina; Stemmann, Lars; Sullivan, Matthew B; Weissenbach, Jean; Wincker, Patrick; Karsenti, Eric; Raes, Jeroen; Acinas, Silvia G; Bork, Peer

    2015-05-22

    Microbes are dominant drivers of biogeochemical processes, yet drawing a global picture of functional diversity, microbial community structure, and their ecological determinants remains a grand challenge. We analyzed 7.2 terabases of metagenomic data from 243 Tara Oceans samples from 68 locations in epipelagic and mesopelagic waters across the globe to generate an ocean microbial reference gene catalog with >40 million nonredundant, mostly novel sequences from viruses, prokaryotes, and picoeukaryotes. Using 139 prokaryote-enriched samples, containing >35,000 species, we show vertical stratification with epipelagic community composition mostly driven by temperature rather than other environmental factors or geography. We identify ocean microbial core functionality and reveal that >73% of its abundance is shared with the human gut microbiome despite the physicochemical differences between these two ecosystems. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  2. Predicting Earth orientation changes from global forecasts of atmosphere-hydrosphere dynamics

    Dobslaw, Henryk; Dill, Robert

    2018-02-01

    Effective Angular Momentum (EAM) functions obtained from global numerical simulations of atmosphere, ocean, and land surface dynamics are routinely processed by the Earth System Modelling group at Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum. EAM functions are available since January 1976 with up to 3 h temporal resolution. Additionally, 6 days-long EAM forecasts are routinely published every day. Based on hindcast experiments with 305 individual predictions distributed over 15 months, we demonstrate that EAM forecasts improve the prediction accuracy of the Earth Orientation Parameters at all forecast horizons between 1 and 6 days. At day 6, prediction accuracy improves down to 1.76 mas for the terrestrial pole offset, and 2.6 mas for Δ UT1, which correspond to an accuracy increase of about 41% over predictions published in Bulletin A by the International Earth Rotation and Reference System Service.

  3. Global oceanic production of nitrous oxide

    Freing, Alina; Wallace, Douglas W. R.; Bange, Hermann W.

    2012-01-01

    We use transient time distributions calculated from tracer data together with in situ measurements of nitrous oxide (N2O) to estimate the concentration of biologically produced N2O and N2O production rates in the ocean on a global scale. Our approach to estimate the N2O production rates integrates the effects of potentially varying production and decomposition mechanisms along the transport path of a water mass. We estimate that the oceanic N2O production is dominated by nitrification with a contribution of only approximately 7 per cent by denitrification. This indicates that previously used approaches have overestimated the contribution by denitrification. Shelf areas may account for only a negligible fraction of the global production; however, estuarine sources and coastal upwelling of N2O are not taken into account in our study. The largest amount of subsurface N2O is produced in the upper 500 m of the water column. The estimated global annual subsurface N2O production ranges from 3.1 ± 0.9 to 3.4 ± 0.9 Tg N yr−1. This is in agreement with estimates of the global N2O emissions to the atmosphere and indicates that a N2O source in the mixed layer is unlikely. The potential future development of the oceanic N2O source in view of the ongoing changes of the ocean environment (deoxygenation, warming, eutrophication and acidification) is discussed. PMID:22451110

  4. Global oceanic production of nitrous oxide.

    Freing, Alina; Wallace, Douglas W R; Bange, Hermann W

    2012-05-05

    We use transient time distributions calculated from tracer data together with in situ measurements of nitrous oxide (N(2)O) to estimate the concentration of biologically produced N(2)O and N(2)O production rates in the ocean on a global scale. Our approach to estimate the N(2)O production rates integrates the effects of potentially varying production and decomposition mechanisms along the transport path of a water mass. We estimate that the oceanic N(2)O production is dominated by nitrification with a contribution of only approximately 7 per cent by denitrification. This indicates that previously used approaches have overestimated the contribution by denitrification. Shelf areas may account for only a negligible fraction of the global production; however, estuarine sources and coastal upwelling of N(2)O are not taken into account in our study. The largest amount of subsurface N(2)O is produced in the upper 500 m of the water column. The estimated global annual subsurface N(2)O production ranges from 3.1 ± 0.9 to 3.4 ± 0.9 Tg N yr(-1). This is in agreement with estimates of the global N(2)O emissions to the atmosphere and indicates that a N(2)O source in the mixed layer is unlikely. The potential future development of the oceanic N(2)O source in view of the ongoing changes of the ocean environment (deoxygenation, warming, eutrophication and acidification) is discussed.

  5. Global Ocean Currents Database (GOCD) (NCEI Accession 0093183)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Ocean Currents Database (GOCD) is a collection of quality controlled ocean current measurements such as observed current direction and speed obtained from...

  6. Improving Global Flood Forecasting using Satellite Detected Flood Extent

    Revilla Romero, B.

    2016-01-01

    Flooding is a natural global phenomenon but in many cases is exacerbated by human activity. Although flooding generally affects humans in a negative way, bringing death, suffering, and economic impacts, it also has potentially beneficial effects. Early flood warning and forecasting systems, as well

  7. Scientists’ perspectives on global ocean research priorities

    Murray Alan Rudd

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Diverse natural and social science research is needed to support policies to recover and sustain healthy oceans. While a wide variety of expert-led prioritization initiatives have identified research themes and priorities at national and regional scale, over the past several years there has also been a surge in the number of scanning exercises that have identified important environmental research questions and issues ‘from the bottom-up’. From those questions, winnowed from thousands of contributions by scientists and policy-makers around the world who participated in terrestrial, aquatic and domain-specific horizon scanning and big question exercises, I identified 657 research questions potentially important for informing decisions regarding ocean governance and sustainability. These were distilled to a short list of 67 distinctive research questions that, in an internet survey, were ranked by 2179 scientists from 94 countries. Five of the top 10 research priorities were shared by respondents globally. Despite significant differences between physical and ecological scientists’ priorities regarding specific research questions, they shared seven common priorities among their top 10. Social scientists’ priorities were, however, much different, highlighting their research focus on managerial solutions to ocean challenges and questions regarding the role of human behavior and values in attaining ocean sustainability. The results from this survey provide a comprehensive and timely assessment of current ocean research priorities among research-active scientists but highlight potential challenges in stimulating crossdisciplinary research. As ocean and coastal research necessarily becomes more transdisciplinary to address complex ocean challenges, it will be critical for scientists and research funders to understand how scientists from different disciplines and regions might collaborate and strengthen the overall evidence base for ocean

  8. Influence of Met-Ocean Condition Forecasting Uncertainties on Weather Window Predictions for Offshore Operations

    Gintautas, Tomas; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2017-01-01

    The article briefly presents a novel methodology of weather window estimation for offshore operations and mainly focuses on effects of met-ocean condition forecasting uncertainties on weather window predictions when using the proposed methodology. It is demonstrated that the proposed methodology...... to include stochastic variables, representing met-ocean forecasting uncertainties and the results of such modification are given in terms of predicted weather windows for a selected test case....

  9. Recent Trends in Global Ocean Chlorophyll

    Gregg, Watson; Casey, Nancy

    2004-01-01

    Recent analyses of SeaWiFS data have shown that global ocean chlorophyll has increased more than 5% since 1998. The North Pacific ocean basin has increased nearly 19%. To understand the causes of these trends we have applied the newly developed NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Assimilation Model (OBAM), which is driven in mechanistic fashion by surface winds, sea surface temperature, atmospheric iron deposition, sea ice, and surface irradiance. The mode1 utilizes chlorophyll from SeaWiFS in a daily assimilation. The model has in place many of the climatic variables that can be expected to produce the changes observed in SeaWiFS data. Ths enables us to diagnose the model performance, the assimilation performance, and possible causes for the increase in chlorophyll.

  10. Global Warming: Understanding and Teaching the Forecast.

    Andrews, Bill

    1994-01-01

    A resource for the teaching of the history and causes of climate change. Discusses evidence of climate change from the Viking era, early ice ages, the most recent ice age, natural causes of climate change, human-made causes of climate change, projections of global warming, and unequal warming. (LZ)

  11. Real-time Ocean Observations and Forecast Facility (ROOFF)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — FUNCTION: Provides the capability to visualize "ocean weather" for selected ocean regions. The collection of satellite observations with numerical circulation models...

  12. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R.

    1994-05-01

    This report was prepared by the Applied Research Corporation (ARC), College Station, Texas, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate studies task. The task supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and is part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work is under the overall direction of the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), US Department of Energy Headquarters, Washington, DC. The scope of the report is to present the results of the third year's work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain several studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals

  13. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R.

    1994-05-01

    The scope of the report is to present the results of the fourth year's work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals

  14. The Santos Basin Ocean Observing System: From R&D to Operational Regional Forecasts

    Da Rocha Fragoso, M.; Moore, A. M.; dos Santos, F. A.; Marques Da Cruz, L.; Carvalho, G. V.; Soares, F.

    2016-02-01

    Santos Basin is located on the Southwestern Brazilian Ocean Basin and comprises the main offshore oil reserves of Brazil. The exploration and production activities on its ocean are growing in accelerated pace, which means that oil spill contingency and search & rescue operations are likely to be more frequent. Therefore, ocean current reliable nowcasts and forecasts has become even more important for this region. The Santos Basin Ocean Observing System was designed as an R&D project and its main objective was to establish and maintain a systematic oceanographic data collection for this region in order to study its ocean dynamics and improve regional ocean forecast through data assimilation. In the first three years of the project surface drifters, profiling floats and gliders were deployed to measure and monitor mainly the Brazil Current Western Boundary System, a highly unstable baroclinic current system, that present several meanders and mesoscale eddies activities. Throughout the development of the project, the team involved was able to learn how to operate the equipment, treat the collected data and use it to assimilate on the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). After performing a one-year 4DVAR assimilation cycle (Fragoso et al., 2015) in which the forecasting skill was assessed, the system was considered mature enough to start producing ocean circulation forecasts for Santos Basin. It is the first time in Brazil that a regional ocean model using a 4DVAR data assimilation scheme was used to produce high resolution operational ocean current forecasts. This paper describes all the components of this forecasting system, its main results and discoveries with special focus on the Brazil Current System Transport and mesocale eddies dynamics and statistics.

  15. An Assessment of the Subseasonal Forecast Performance in the Extended Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)

    Sinsky, E.; Zhu, Y.; Li, W.; Guan, H.; Melhauser, C.

    2017-12-01

    Optimal forecast quality is crucial for the preservation of life and property. Improving monthly forecast performance over both the tropics and extra-tropics requires attention to various physical aspects such as the representation of the underlying SST, model physics and the representation of the model physics uncertainty for an ensemble forecast system. This work focuses on the impact of stochastic physics, SST and the convection scheme on forecast performance for the sub-seasonal scale over the tropics and extra-tropics with emphasis on the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). A 2-year period is evaluated using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). Three experiments with different configurations than the operational GEFS were performed to illustrate the impact of the stochastic physics, SST and convection scheme. These experiments are compared against a control experiment (CTL) which consists of the operational GEFS but its integration is extended from 16 to 35 days. The three configurations are: 1) SPs, which uses a Stochastically Perturbed Physics Tendencies (SPPT), Stochastic Perturbed Humidity (SHUM) and Stochastic Kinetic Energy Backscatter (SKEB); 2) SPs+SST_bc, which uses a combination of SPs and a bias-corrected forecast SST from the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2); and 3) SPs+SST_bc+SA_CV, which combines SPs, a bias-corrected forecast SST and a scale aware convection scheme. When comparing to the CTL experiment, SPs shows substantial improvement. The MJO skill has improved by about 4 lead days during the 2-year period. Improvement is also seen over the extra-tropics due to the updated stochastic physics, where there is a 3.1% and a 4.2% improvement during weeks 3 and 4 over the northern hemisphere and southern hemisphere, respectively. Improvement is also seen when the bias-corrected CFSv2 SST is combined with SPs. Additionally, forecast performance enhances when the scale aware

  16. The Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS): New developments

    Summerhayes, C.P.

    1999-01-01

    GOOS will provide information about the present and future states of seas and oceans and their living resources, and on the role of the oceans in climate change. Among other things, it will include monitoring the extent to which the sea is polluted, and applying models enabling the behaviour of polluted environments to be forecast given a variety of forcing conditions including anthropogenic and natural changes. Implementation has begun through integration of previously separate existing observing systems into a GOOS Initial Observing System, and through the development of Pilot Projects, most notably in the coastal seas of Europe and North-east Asia. Although the present emphasis is on the measurement of physical properties, plans are underway for increasing the observation of chemical and biological parameters. The main biological thrust at present comes through the Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network (GCRMN). Consideration needs to be given to incorporation into the GOOS Initial Observing System of present national, international and global chemical and biological monitoring systems, and the development and implementation of new chemical and biological monitoring subsystems, especially in coastal seas for monitoring the health of those environments. GOOS will offer marine scientists and other users a scheme of continuing measurements on a scale larger in time and space than can be accomplished by individuals for their own applications, and a vastly improved store of basic marine environmental data for a multitude of purposes. For GOOS news see the GOOS Homepage at http://ioc.unesco.org/GOOS/. (author)

  17. LiveOcean: A Daily Forecast Model of Ocean Acidification for Shellfish Growers

    MacCready, P.; Siedlecki, S. A.; McCabe, R. M.

    2016-12-01

    The coastal estuaries of the NE Pacific host a highly productive shellfish industry, but in the past decade they have suffered from many years in which no natural set of oysters occurred. It appears that coastal waters with low Aragonite saturation state may be the cause. This "acidified" water is the result of (i) upwelling of NE Pacific water from near the shelf break that is already low in pH, and (ii) further acidification of that water by productivity and remineralization on the shelf, and (iii) increasing atmospheric CO2. As part of a coordinated research response to this issue, we have developed the LiveOcean modeling system, which creates daily three-day forecasts of circulation and biogeochemical properties in Oregon-Washington-British Columbia coastal and estuarine waters. The system includes realistic tides, atmospheric forcing (from a regional WRF model), ocean boundary conditions (from HYCOM), and rivers (from USGS and Environment Canada). The model is also used for Harmful Algal Bloom prediction. There has been extensive validation of hindcast runs for currents and hydrography, and more limited validation of biogeochemical variables. Model results are pushed daily to the cloud, and made available to the public through the NANOOS Visualization System (NVS). NVS also includes automated model-data comparisons with real-time NDBC and OOI moorings. Future work will focus on optimizing the utility of this system for regional shellfish growers.

  18. Global equivalent magnetization of the oceanic lithosphere

    Dyment, J.; Choi, Y.; Hamoudi, M.; Lesur, V.; Thebault, E.

    2015-11-01

    As a by-product of the construction of a new World Digital Magnetic Anomaly Map over oceanic areas, we use an original approach based on the global forward modeling of seafloor spreading magnetic anomalies and their comparison to the available marine magnetic data to derive the first map of the equivalent magnetization over the World's ocean. This map reveals consistent patterns related to the age of the oceanic lithosphere, the spreading rate at which it was formed, and the presence of mantle thermal anomalies which affects seafloor spreading and the resulting lithosphere. As for the age, the equivalent magnetization decreases significantly during the first 10-15 Myr after its formation, probably due to the alteration of crustal magnetic minerals under pervasive hydrothermal alteration, then increases regularly between 20 and 70 Ma, reflecting variations in the field strength or source effects such as the acquisition of a secondary magnetization. As for the spreading rate, the equivalent magnetization is twice as strong in areas formed at fast rate than in those formed at slow rate, with a threshold at ∼40 km/Myr, in agreement with an independent global analysis of the amplitude of Anomaly 25. This result, combined with those from the study of the anomalous skewness of marine magnetic anomalies, allows building a unified model for the magnetic structure of normal oceanic lithosphere as a function of spreading rate. Finally, specific areas affected by thermal mantle anomalies at the time of their formation exhibit peculiar equivalent magnetization signatures, such as the cold Australian-Antarctic Discordance, marked by a lower magnetization, and several hotspots, marked by a high magnetization.

  19. Hydro-meteorological evaluation of downscaled global ensemble rainfall forecasts

    Gaborit, Étienne; Anctil, François; Fortin, Vincent; Pelletier, Geneviève

    2013-04-01

    Ensemble rainfall forecasts are of high interest for decision making, as they provide an explicit and dynamic assessment of the uncertainty in the forecast (Ruiz et al. 2009). However, for hydrological forecasting, their low resolution currently limits their use to large watersheds (Maraun et al. 2010). In order to bridge this gap, various implementations of the statistic-stochastic multi-fractal downscaling technique presented by Perica and Foufoula-Georgiou (1996) were compared, bringing Environment Canada's global ensemble rainfall forecasts from a 100 by 70-km resolution down to 6 by 4-km, while increasing each pixel's rainfall variance and preserving its original mean. For comparison purposes, simpler methods were also implemented such as the bi-linear interpolation, which disaggregates global forecasts without modifying their variance. The downscaled meteorological products were evaluated using different scores and diagrams, from both a meteorological and a hydrological view points. The meteorological evaluation was conducted comparing the forecasted rainfall depths against nine days of observed values taken from Québec City rain gauge database. These 9 days present strong precipitation events occurring during the summer of 2009. For the hydrologic evaluation, the hydrological models SWMM5 and (a modified version of) GR4J were implemented on a small 6 km2 urban catchment located in the Québec City region. Ensemble hydrologic forecasts with a time step of 3 hours were then performed over a 3-months period of the summer of 2010 using the original and downscaled ensemble rainfall forecasts. The most important conclusions of this work are that the overall quality of the forecasts was preserved during the disaggregation procedure and that the disaggregated products using this variance-enhancing method were of similar quality than bi-linear interpolation products. However, variance and dispersion of the different members were, of course, much improved for the

  20. Development of a forecast model for global air traffic emissions

    Schaefer, Martin

    2012-07-01

    The thesis describes the methodology and results of a simulation model that quantifies fuel consumption and emissions of civil air traffic. Besides covering historical emissions, the model aims at forecasting emissions in the medium-term future. For this purpose, simulation models of aircraft and engine types are used in combination with a database of global flight movements and assumptions about traffic growth, fleet rollover and operational aspects. Results from an application of the model include emissions of scheduled air traffic for the years 2000 to 2010 as well as forecasted emissions until the year 2030. In a baseline scenario of the forecast, input assumptions (e.g. traffic growth rates) are in line with predictions by the aircraft industry. Considering the effects of advanced technologies of the short-term and medium-term future, the forecast focusses on fuel consumption and emissions of nitric oxides. Calculations for historical air traffic additionally cover emissions of carbon monoxide, unburned hydrocarbons and soot. Results are validated against reference data including studies by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and simulation results from international research projects. (orig.)

  1. Operational skill assessment of the IBI-MFC Ocean Forecasting System within the frame of the CMEMS.

    Lorente Jimenez, Pablo; Garcia-Sotillo, Marcos; Amo-Balandron, Arancha; Aznar Lecocq, Roland; Perez Gomez, Begoña; Levier, Bruno; Alvarez-Fanjul, Enrique

    2016-04-01

    Since operational ocean forecasting systems (OOFSs) are increasingly used as tools to support high-stakes decision-making for coastal management, a rigorous skill assessment of model performance becomes essential. In this context, the IBI-MFC (Iberia-Biscay-Ireland Monitoring & Forecasting Centre) has been providing daily ocean model estimates and forecasts for the IBI regional seas since 2011, first in the frame of MyOcean projects and later as part of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS). A comprehensive web validation tool named NARVAL (North Atlantic Regional VALidation) has been developed to routinely monitor IBI performance and to evaluate model's veracity and prognostic capabilities. Three-dimensional comparisons are carried out on a different time basis ('online mode' - daily verifications - and 'delayed mode' - for longer time periods -) using a broad variety of in-situ (buoys, tide-gauges, ARGO-floats, drifters and gliders) and remote-sensing (satellite and HF radars) observational sources as reference fields to validate against the NEMO model solution. Product quality indicators and meaningful skill metrics are automatically computed not only averaged over the entire IBI domain but also over specific sub-regions of particular interest from a user perspective (i.e. coastal or shelf areas) in order to determine IBI spatial and temporal uncertainty levels. A complementary aspect of NARVAL web tool is the intercomparison of different CMEMS forecast model solutions in overlapping areas. Noticeable efforts are in progress in order to quantitatively assess the quality and consistency of nested system outputs by setting up specific intercomparison exercises on different temporal and spatial scales, encompassing global configurations (CMEMS Global system), regional applications (NWS and MED ones) and local high-resolution coastal models (i.e. the PdE SAMPA system in the Gibraltar Strait). NARVAL constitutes a powerful approach to increase

  2. Forecasting ocean wave energy: A Comparison of the ECMWF wave model with time series methods

    Reikard, Gordon; Pinson, Pierre; Bidlot, Jean

    2011-01-01

    Recently, the technology has been developed to make wave farms commercially viable. Since electricity is perishable, utilities will be interested in forecasting ocean wave energy. The horizons involved in short-term management of power grids range from as little as a few hours to as long as several...... days. In selecting a method, the forecaster has a choice between physics-based models and statistical techniques. A further idea is to combine both types of models. This paper analyzes the forecasting properties of a well-known physics-based model, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts...... (ECMWF) Wave Model, and two statistical techniques, time-varying parameter regressions and neural networks. Thirteen data sets at locations in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and the Gulf of Mexico are tested. The quantities to be predicted are the significant wave height, the wave period, and the wave...

  3. Dynamic biogeochemical provinces in the global ocean

    Reygondeau, Gabriel; Longhurst, Alan; Martinez, Elodie; Beaugrand, Gregory; Antoine, David; Maury, Olivier

    2013-12-01

    In recent decades, it has been found useful to partition the pelagic environment using the concept of biogeochemical provinces, or BGCPs, within each of which it is assumed that environmental conditions are distinguishable and unique at global scale. The boundaries between provinces respond to features of physical oceanography and, ideally, should follow seasonal and interannual changes in ocean dynamics. But this ideal has not been fulfilled except for small regions of the oceans. Moreover, BGCPs have been used only as static entities having boundaries that were originally established to compute global primary production. In the present study, a new statistical methodology based on non-parametric procedures is implemented to capture the environmental characteristics within 56 BGCPs. Four main environmental parameters (bathymetry, chlorophyll a concentration, surface temperature, and salinity) are used to infer the spatial distribution of each BGCP over 1997-2007. The resulting dynamic partition allows us to integrate changes in the distribution of BGCPs at seasonal and interannual timescales, and so introduces the possibility of detecting spatial shifts in environmental conditions.

  4. Global drought outlook by means of seasonal forecasts

    Ziese, Markus; Fröhlich, Kristina; Rustemeier, Elke; Becker, Andreas

    2017-04-01

    Droughts are naturally occurring phenomena which are caused by a shortage of available water due to lower than normal precipitation and/or above normal evaporation. Depending on the length of the droughts, several sectors are affected starting with agriculture, then river and ground water levels and finally socio-economic losses at the long end of the spectrum of drought persistence. Droughts are extreme events that affect much larger areas and last much longer than floods, but are less geared towards media than floods being more short-scale in persistence and impacts. Finally the slow onset of droughts make the detection and early warning of their beginning difficult and time is lost for preparatory measures. Drought indices are developed to detect and classify droughts based on (meteorological) observations and possible additional information tailored to specific user needs, e.g. in agriculture, hydrology and other sectors. Not all drought indices can be utilized for global applications as not all input parameters are available at this scale. Therefore the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) developed a drought index as combination of the Standardized Drought Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), the GPCC-DI. The GPCC-DI is applied to drought monitoring and retrospective analyses on a global scale. As the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) operates a seasonal forecast system in cooperation with Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology Hamburg and University of Hamburg, these data are also used for an outlook of drought conditions by means of the GPCC-DI. The reliability of seasonal precipitation forecasts is limited, so the drought outlook is available only for forecast months two to four. Based on the GPCC-DI, DWD provides a retrospective analysis, near-real-time monitoring and outlook of drought conditions on a global scale and regular basis.

  5. A variant of the anomaly initialisation approach for global climate forecast models

    Volpi, Danila; Guemas, Virginie; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Hawkins, Ed; Nichols, Nancy; Carrassi, Alberto

    2014-05-01

    This work presents a refined method of anomaly initialisation (AI) applied to the ocean and sea ice components of the global climate forecast model EC-Earth, with the following particularities: - the use of a weight to the anomalies, in order to avoid the risk of introducing too big anomalies recorded in the observed state, whose amplitude does not fit the range of the internal variability generated by the model. - the AI of the temperature and density ocean state variables instead of the temperature and salinity. Results show that the use of such refinements improve the skill over the Arctic region, part of the North and South Atlantic, part of the North and South Pacific and the Mediterranean Sea. In the Tropical Pacific the full field initialised experiment performs better. This is probably due to a displacement of the observed anomalies caused by the use of the AI technique. Furthermore, preliminary results of an anomaly nudging experiment are discussed.

  6. NCEP Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The GODAS dataset is a real-time ocean analysis and a reanalysis. It is used for monitoring, retrospective analysis as well as for providing oceanic initial...

  7. Evaluation of global monitoring and forecasting systems at Mercator Océan

    J.-M. Lellouche

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Since December 2010, the MyOcean global analysis and forecasting system has consisted of the Mercator Océan NEMO global 1/4° configuration with a 1/12° nested model over the Atlantic and the Mediterranean. The open boundary data for the nested configuration come from the global 1/4° configuration at 20° S and 80° N.

    The data are assimilated by means of a reduced-order Kalman filter with a 3-D multivariate modal decomposition of the forecast error. It includes an adaptive-error estimate and a localization algorithm. A 3-D-Var scheme provides a correction for the slowly evolving large-scale biases in temperature and salinity. Altimeter data, satellite sea surface temperature and in situ temperature and salinity vertical profiles are jointly assimilated to estimate the initial conditions for numerical ocean forecasting. In addition to the quality control performed by data producers, the system carries out a proper quality control on temperature and salinity vertical profiles in order to minimise the risk of erroneous observed profiles being assimilated in the model.

    This paper describes the recent systems used by Mercator Océan and the validation procedure applied to current MyOcean systems as well as systems under development. The paper shows how refinements or adjustments to the system during the validation procedure affect its quality. Additionally, we show that quality checks (in situ, drifters and data sources (satellite sea surface temperature have as great an impact as the system design (model physics and assimilation parameters. The results of the scientific assessment are illustrated with diagnostics over the year 2010 mainly, assorted with time series over the 2007–2011 period. The validation procedure demonstrates the accuracy of MyOcean global products, whose quality is stable over time. All monitoring systems are close to altimetric observations with a forecast RMS difference of 7 cm. The update of the mean

  8. Initial evaluations of a Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean ocean forecast system in the context of the Deepwater Horizon disaster

    Zaron, Edward D.; Fitzpatrick, Patrick J.; Cross, Scott L.; Harding, John M.; Bub, Frank L.; Wiggert, Jerry D.; Ko, Dong S.; Lau, Yee; Woodard, Katharine; Mooers, Christopher N. K.

    2015-12-01

    In response to the Deepwater Horizon (DwH) oil spill event in 2010, the Naval Oceanographic Office deployed a nowcast-forecast system covering the Gulf of Mexico and adjacent Caribbean Sea that was designated Americas Seas, or AMSEAS, which is documented in this manuscript. The DwH disaster provided a challenge to the application of available ocean-forecast capabilities, and also generated a historically large observational dataset. AMSEAS was evaluated by four complementary efforts, each with somewhat different aims and approaches: a university research consortium within an Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) testbed; a petroleum industry consortium, the Gulf of Mexico 3-D Operational Ocean Forecast System Pilot Prediction Project (GOMEX-PPP); a British Petroleum (BP) funded project at the Northern Gulf Institute in response to the oil spill; and the Navy itself. Validation metrics are presented in these different projects for water temperature and salinity profiles, sea surface wind, sea surface temperature, sea surface height, and volume transport, for different forecast time scales. The validation found certain geographic and time biases/errors, and small but systematic improvements relative to earlier regional and global modeling efforts. On the basis of these positive AMSEAS validation studies, an oil spill transport simulation was conducted using archived AMSEAS nowcasts to examine transport into the estuaries east of the Mississippi River. This effort captured the influences of Hurricane Alex and a non-tropical cyclone off the Louisiana coast, both of which pushed oil into the western Mississippi Sound, illustrating the importance of the atmospheric influence on oil spills such as DwH.

  9. The Global S$_1$ Ocean Tide

    Ray, Richard D.; Egbert, G. D.

    2003-01-01

    The small S$_1$ ocean tide is caused primarily by diurnal atmospheric pressure loading. Its excitation is therefore unlike any other diurnal tide. The global character of $S-1$ is here determined by numerical modeling and by analysis of Topex/Poseidon satellite altimeter data. The two approaches yield reasonably consistent results, and large ( $ greater than $l\\cm) amplitudes in several regions are further confirmed by comparison with coastal tide gauges. Notwithstanding their excitation differences, S$-1$ and other diurnal tides are found to share several common features, such as relatively large amplitudes in the Arabian Sea, the Sea of Okhotsk, and the Gulf of Alaska. The most noticeable difference is the lack of an S$-1$ Antarctic Kelvin wave. These similarities and differences can be explained in terms of the coherences between near-diurnal oceanic normal modes and the underlying tidal forcings. While gravitational diurnal tidal forces excite primarily a 28-hour Antarctic-Pacific mode, the S$_1$ air tide excites several other near-diurnal modes, none of which has large amplitudes near Antarctica.

  10. Skill of a global seasonal streamflow forecasting system, relative roles of initial conditions and meteorological forcing

    Candogan Yossef, N.; Winsemius, H.C.; Weerts, A.; Van Beek, R.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2013-01-01

    We investigate the relative contributions of initial conditions (ICs) and meteorological forcing (MF) to the skill of the global seasonal streamflow forecasting system FEWS-World, using the global hydrological model PCRaster Global Water Balance. Potential improvement in forecasting skill through

  11. Enhanced deep ocean ventilation and oxygenation with global warming

    Froelicher, T. L.; Jaccard, S.; Dunne, J. P.; Paynter, D.; Gruber, N.

    2014-12-01

    Twenty-first century coupled climate model simulations, observations from the recent past, and theoretical arguments suggest a consistent trend towards warmer ocean temperatures and fresher polar surface oceans in response to increased radiative forcing resulting in increased upper ocean stratification and reduced ventilation and oxygenation of the deep ocean. Paleo-proxy records of the warming at the end of the last ice age, however, suggests a different outcome, namely a better ventilated and oxygenated deep ocean with global warming. Here we use a four thousand year global warming simulation from a comprehensive Earth System Model (GFDL ESM2M) to show that this conundrum is a consequence of different rates of warming and that the deep ocean is actually better ventilated and oxygenated in a future warmer equilibrated climate consistent with paleo-proxy records. The enhanced deep ocean ventilation in the Southern Ocean occurs in spite of increased positive surface buoyancy fluxes and a constancy of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds - circumstances that would otherwise be expected to lead to a reduction in deep ocean ventilation. This ventilation recovery occurs through a global scale interaction of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation undergoing a multi-centennial recovery after an initial century of transient decrease and transports salinity-rich waters inform the subtropical surface ocean to the Southern Ocean interior on multi-century timescales. The subsequent upwelling of salinity-rich waters in the Southern Ocean strips away the freshwater cap that maintains vertical stability and increases open ocean convection and the formation of Antarctic Bottom Waters. As a result, the global ocean oxygen content and the nutrient supply from the deep ocean to the surface are higher in a warmer ocean. The implications for past and future changes in ocean heat and carbon storage will be discussed.

  12. USING GEM - GLOBAL ECONOMIC MODEL IN ACHIEVING A GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECAST

    Camelia Madalina Orac

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The global economic development model has proved to be insufficiently reliable under the new economic crisis. As a result, the entire theoretical construction about the global economy needs rethinking and reorientation. In this context, it is quite clear that only through effective use of specific techniques and tools of economic-mathematical modeling, statistics, regional analysis and economic forecasting it is possible to obtain an overview of the future economy.

  13. Variational Data Assimilation for the Global Ocean

    2013-01-01

    ocean includes the Geoid (a fixed gravity equipotential surface ) as well as the MDT, which is not known accurately enough relative to the centimeter...scales, including processes that control the surface mixed layer, the formation of ocean eddies, meandering ocean J.A. Cummings (E3) nography Division...variables. Examples of this in the ocean are integral quantities, such as acous^B travel time and altimeter measures of sea surface height, and direct

  14. Global operational hydrological forecasts through eWaterCycle

    van de Giesen, Nick; Bierkens, Marc; Donchyts, Gennadii; Drost, Niels; Hut, Rolf; Sutanudjaja, Edwin

    2015-04-01

    Central goal of the eWaterCycle project (www.ewatercycle.org) is the development of an operational hyper-resolution hydrological global model. This model is able to produce 14 day ensemble forecasts based on a hydrological model and operational weather data (presently NOAA's Global Ensemble Forecast System). Special attention is paid to prediction of situations in which water related issues are relevant, such as floods, droughts, navigation, hydropower generation, and irrigation stress. Near-real time satellite data will be assimilated in the hydrological simulations, which is a feature that will be presented for the first time at EGU 2015. First, we address challenges that are mainly computer science oriented but have direct practical hydrological implications. An important feature in this is the use of existing standards and open-source software to the maximum extent possible. For example, we use the Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System (CSDMS) approach to coupling models (Basic Model Interface (BMI)). The hydrological model underlying the project is PCR-GLOBWB, built by Utrecht University. This is the motor behind the predictions and state estimations. Parts of PCR-GLOBWB have been re-engineered to facilitate running it in a High Performance Computing (HPC) environment, run parallel on multiple nodes, as well as to use BMI. Hydrological models are not very CPU intensive compared to, say, atmospheric models. They are, however, memory hungry due to the localized processes and associated effective parameters. To accommodate this memory need, especially in an ensemble setting, a variation on the traditional Ensemble Kalman Filter was developed that needs much less on-chip memory. Due to the operational nature, the coupling of the hydrological model with hydraulic models is very important. The idea is not to run detailed hydraulic routing schemes over the complete globe but to have on-demand simulation prepared off-line with respect to topography and

  15. An assessment of oceanic variability in the NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis

    Xue, Yan; Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Kumar, Arun [Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Huang, Boyin; Wen, Caihong [Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Wyle Information System, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Behringer, David; Nadiga, Sudhir [Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD (United States)

    2011-12-15

    At the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), a reanalysis of the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land over the period 1979-2009, referred to as the climate forecast system reanalysis (CFSR), was recently completed. The oceanic component of CFSR includes many advances: (a) the MOM4 ocean model with an interactive sea-ice, (b) the 6 h coupled model forecast as the first guess, (c) inclusion of the mean climatological river runoff, and (d) high spatial (0.5 x 0.5 ) and temporal (hourly) model outputs. Since the CFSR will be used by many in initializing/validating ocean models and climate research, the primary motivation of the paper is to inform the user community about the saline features in the CFSR ocean component, and how the ocean reanalysis compares with in situ observations and previous reanalysis. The net ocean surface heat flux of the CFSR has smaller biases compared to the sum of the latent and sensible heat fluxes from the objectively analyzed air-sea fluxes (OAFlux) and the shortwave and longwave radiation fluxes from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP-FD) than the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (R1) and NCEP/DOE reanalysis (R2) in both the tropics and extratropics. The ocean surface wind stress of the CFSR has smaller biases and higher correlation with the ERA40 produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts than the R1 and R2, particularly in the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean. The CFSR also has smaller errors compared to the QuickSCAT climatology for September 1999 to October 2009 than the R1 and R2. However, the trade winds of the CFSR in the central equatorial Pacific are too strong prior to 1999, and become close to observations once the ATOVS radiance data are assimilated in late 1998. A sudden reduction of easterly wind bias is related to the sudden onset of a warm bias in the eastern equatorial Pacific temperature around 1998/1999. The sea surface height and top 300 m heat content (HC300) of

  16. 3D Visualization of Global Ocean Circulation

    Nelson, V. G.; Sharma, R.; Zhang, E.; Schmittner, A.; Jenny, B.

    2015-12-01

    Advanced 3D visualization techniques are seldom used to explore the dynamic behavior of ocean circulation. Streamlines are an effective method for visualization of flow, and they can be designed to clearly show the dynamic behavior of a fluidic system. We employ vector field editing and extraction software to examine the topology of velocity vector fields generated by a 3D global circulation model coupled to a one-layer atmosphere model simulating preindustrial and last glacial maximum (LGM) conditions. This results in a streamline-based visualization along multiple density isosurfaces on which we visualize points of vertical exchange and the distribution of properties such as temperature and biogeochemical tracers. Previous work involving this model examined the change in the energetics driving overturning circulation and mixing between simulations of LGM and preindustrial conditions. This visualization elucidates the relationship between locations of vertical exchange and mixing, as well as demonstrates the effects of circulation and mixing on the distribution of tracers such as carbon isotopes.

  17. Downscaling Global Weather Forecast Outputs Using ANN for Flood Prediction

    Nam Do Hoai

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Downscaling global weather prediction model outputs to individual locations or local scales is a common practice for operational weather forecast in order to correct the model outputs at subgrid scales. This paper presents an empirical-statistical downscaling method for precipitation prediction which uses a feed-forward multilayer perceptron (MLP neural network. The MLP architecture was optimized by considering physical bases that determine the circulation of atmospheric variables. Downscaled precipitation was then used as inputs to the super tank model (runoff model for flood prediction. The case study was conducted for the Thu Bon River Basin, located in Central Vietnam. Study results showed that the precipitation predicted by MLP outperformed that directly obtained from model outputs or downscaled using multiple linear regression. Consequently, flood forecast based on the downscaled precipitation was very encouraging. It has demonstrated as a robust technology, simple to implement, reliable, and universal application for flood prediction through the combination of downscaling model and super tank model.

  18. Forecasting of rainfall using ocean-atmospheric indices with a fuzzy neural technique

    Srivastava, Gaurav; Panda, Sudhindra N.; Mondal, Pratap; Liu, Junguo

    2010-12-01

    SummaryForecasting of rainfall is imperative for rainfed agriculture of arid and semi-arid regions of the world where agriculture consumes nearly 80% of the total water demand. Fuzzy-Ranking Algorithm (FRA) is used to identify the significant input variables for rainfall forecast. A case study is carried out to forecast monthly rainfall in India with several ocean-atmospheric predictor variables. Three different scenarios of ocean-atmospheric predictor variables are used as a set of possible input variables for rainfall forecasting model: (1) two climate indices, i.e. Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index (PDOI); (2) Sea Surface Temperature anomalies (SSTa) in the 5° × 5° grid points in Indian Ocean; and (3) both the climate indices and SSTa. To generate a set of possible input variables for these scenarios, we use climatic indices and the SSTa data with different lags between 1 and 12 months. Nonlinear relationship between identified inputs and rainfall is captured with an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) technique. A new approach based on fuzzy c-mean clustering is proposed for dividing data into representative subsets for training, testing, and validation. The results show that this proposed approach overcomes the difficulty in determining optimal numbers of clusters associated with the data division technique of self-organized map. The ANN model developed with both the climate indices and SSTa shows the best performance for the forecast of the monthly August rainfall in India. Similar approach can be applied to forecast rainfall of any period at selected climatic regions of the world where significant relationship exists between the rainfall and climate indices.

  19. GloFAS-Seasonal: Operational Seasonal Ensemble River Flow Forecasts at the Global Scale

    Emerton, Rebecca; Zsoter, Ervin; Smith, Paul; Salamon, Peter

    2017-04-01

    Seasonal hydrological forecasting has potential benefits for many sectors, including agriculture, water resources management and humanitarian aid. At present, no global scale seasonal hydrological forecasting system exists operationally; although smaller scale systems have begun to emerge around the globe over the past decade, a system providing consistent global scale seasonal forecasts would be of great benefit in regions where no other forecasting system exists, and to organisations operating at the global scale, such as disaster relief. We present here a new operational global ensemble seasonal hydrological forecast, currently under development at ECMWF as part of the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). The proposed system, which builds upon the current version of GloFAS, takes the long-range forecasts from the ECMWF System4 ensemble seasonal forecast system (which incorporates the HTESSEL land surface scheme) and uses this runoff as input to the Lisflood routing model, producing a seasonal river flow forecast out to 4 months lead time, for the global river network. The seasonal forecasts will be evaluated using the global river discharge reanalysis, and observations where available, to determine the potential value of the forecasts across the globe. The seasonal forecasts will be presented as a new layer in the GloFAS interface, which will provide a global map of river catchments, indicating whether the catchment-averaged discharge forecast is showing abnormally high or low flows during the 4-month lead time. Each catchment will display the corresponding forecast as an ensemble hydrograph of the weekly-averaged discharge forecast out to 4 months, with percentile thresholds shown for comparison with the discharge climatology. The forecast visualisation is based on a combination of the current medium-range GloFAS forecasts and the operational EFAS (European Flood Awareness System) seasonal outlook, and aims to effectively communicate the nature of a seasonal

  20. Global Wildfire Forecasts Using Large Scale Climate Indices

    Shen, Huizhong; Tao, Shu

    2016-04-01

    Using weather readings, fire early warning can provided forecast 4-6 hour in advance to minimize fire loss. The benefit would be dramatically enhanced if relatively accurate long-term projection can be also provided. Here we present a novel method for predicting global fire season severity (FSS) at least three months in advance using multiple large-scale climate indices (CIs). The predictive ability is proven effective for various geographic locations and resolution. Globally, as well as in most continents, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant driving force controlling interannual FSS variability, whereas other CIs also play indispensable roles. We found that a moderate El Niño event is responsible for 465 (272-658 as interquartile range) Tg carbon release and an annual increase of 29,500 (24,500-34,800) deaths from inhalation exposure to air pollutants. Southeast Asia accounts for half of the deaths. Both intercorrelation and interaction of WPs and CIs are revealed, suggesting possible climate-induced modification of fire responses to weather conditions. Our models can benefit fire management in response to climate change.

  1. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1997-01-01 to 2007-09-05

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) was developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center, the...

  2. Forecasting the Ocean’s Optical Environment: Development of the BioCast System

    2014-09-01

    Gulf of Mexico (data not shown). Additional advancements in ocean optical forecasting will also result from the integration of BioCast with other...uniformed sailors and marines would have been rather conspicuous against the turbid gray waves marking the entryway to the riotous North Sea. Two...Detection of underwater mines with airborne, towed, or autonomous under- water platforms can be severely impeded by sustained water column turbidity

  3. Verification of ECMWF and ECMWF/MACC's global and direct irradiance forecasts with respect to solar electricity production forecasts

    M. Schroedter-Homscheidt

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The successful electricity grid integration of solar energy into day-ahead markets requires at least hourly resolved 48 h forecasts. Technologies as photovoltaics and non-concentrating solar thermal technologies make use of global horizontal irradiance (GHI forecasts, while all concentrating technologies both from the photovoltaic and the thermal sector require direct normal irradiances (DNI. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF has recently changed towards providing direct as well as global irradiances. Additionally, the MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition & Climate near-real time services provide daily analysis and forecasts of aerosol properties in preparation of the upcoming European Copernicus programme. The operational ECMWF/IFS (Integrated Forecast System forecast system will in the medium term profit from the Copernicus service aerosol forecasts. Therefore, within the MACC‑II project specific experiment runs were performed allowing for the assessment of the performance gain of these potential future capabilities. Also the potential impact of providing forecasts with hourly output resolution compared to three-hourly resolved forecasts is investigated. The inclusion of the new aerosol climatology in October 2003 improved both the GHI and DNI forecasts remarkably, while the change towards a new radiation scheme in 2007 only had minor and partly even unfavourable impacts on the performance indicators. For GHI, larger RMSE (root mean square error values are found for broken/overcast conditions than for scattered cloud fields. For DNI, the findings are opposite with larger RMSE values for scattered clouds compared to overcast/broken cloud situations. The introduction of direct irradiances as an output parameter in the operational IFS version has not resulted in a general performance improvement with respect to biases and RMSE compared to the widely used Skartveit et al. (1998 global to direct irradiance

  4. Visual analysis of uncertainties in ocean forecasts for planning and operation of off-shore structures

    Hollt, Thomas; Magdy, Ahmed; Chen, Guoning; Gopalakrishnan, Ganesh; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Hansen, Charles D.; Hadwiger, Markus

    2013-01-01

    We present a novel integrated visualization system that enables interactive visual analysis of ensemble simulations used in ocean forecasting, i.e, simulations of sea surface elevation. Our system enables the interactive planning of both the placement and operation of off-shore structures. We illustrate this using a real-world simulation of the Gulf of Mexico. Off-shore structures, such as those used for oil exploration, are vulnerable to hazards caused by strong loop currents. The oil and gas industry therefore relies on accurate ocean forecasting systems for planning their operations. Nowadays, these forecasts are based on multiple spatio-temporal simulations resulting in multidimensional, multivariate and multivalued data, so-called ensemble data. Changes in sea surface elevation are a good indicator for the movement of loop current eddies, and our visualization approach enables their interactive exploration and analysis. We enable analysis of the spatial domain, for planning the placement of structures, as well as detailed exploration of the temporal evolution at any chosen position, for the prediction of critical ocean states that require the shutdown of rig operations. © 2013 IEEE.

  5. Visual analysis of uncertainties in ocean forecasts for planning and operation of off-shore structures

    Hollt, Thomas

    2013-02-01

    We present a novel integrated visualization system that enables interactive visual analysis of ensemble simulations used in ocean forecasting, i.e, simulations of sea surface elevation. Our system enables the interactive planning of both the placement and operation of off-shore structures. We illustrate this using a real-world simulation of the Gulf of Mexico. Off-shore structures, such as those used for oil exploration, are vulnerable to hazards caused by strong loop currents. The oil and gas industry therefore relies on accurate ocean forecasting systems for planning their operations. Nowadays, these forecasts are based on multiple spatio-temporal simulations resulting in multidimensional, multivariate and multivalued data, so-called ensemble data. Changes in sea surface elevation are a good indicator for the movement of loop current eddies, and our visualization approach enables their interactive exploration and analysis. We enable analysis of the spatial domain, for planning the placement of structures, as well as detailed exploration of the temporal evolution at any chosen position, for the prediction of critical ocean states that require the shutdown of rig operations. © 2013 IEEE.

  6. From the Stream to the Shore: Forecasting Complex Ocean Environments in Trident Warrior 13

    2016-09-15

    and C. Deeney, “ Effective vs Ion Thermal Temperatures in the Weizmann Ne Z pinch: Modeling and Stagnation Physics” (to be published in Physics of... hierarchy of computer models with increasingly fine resolution followed evolving ocean conditions, spanning from the 7 km global system to a 3 km nest...for TW13 included the first demonstration during a Navy exercise of a hierarchy of ocean models consistently nested from the global down to a local

  7. Product bundling in global ocean transportation

    M. Acciaro (Michele); H. Haralambides (Hercules)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractThere are over 20 'components' in an international door-to-door transportation, ranging from warehousing and distribution, to forwarding, documentation, transportation, customs clearance, etc.. As tariffs in ocean transportation tend to converge due to competition and service

  8. Oceans, microbes, and global climate change

    Danovaro, Roberto

    2016-01-01

    Sea-surface warming, sea-ice melting and related freshening, changes in circulation and mixing regimes, and ocean acidification induced by the present climate changes are modifying marine ecosystem structure and function and have the potential to alter the cycling of carbon and nutrients in surface oceans. Changing climate has direct and indirect consequences on marine life and on microbial components. Prokaryotes (Bacteria and Archaea), viruses and other microbial life forms are impacted by ...

  9. C-GLORSv5: an improved multipurpose global ocean eddy-permitting physical reanalysis

    Storto, Andrea; Masina, Simona

    2016-11-01

    Global ocean reanalyses combine in situ and satellite ocean observations with a general circulation ocean model to estimate the time-evolving state of the ocean, and they represent a valuable tool for a variety of applications, ranging from climate monitoring and process studies to downstream applications, initialization of long-range forecasts and regional studies. The purpose of this paper is to document the recent upgrade of C-GLORS (version 5), the latest ocean reanalysis produced at the Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) that covers the meteorological satellite era (1980-present) and it is being updated in delayed time mode. The reanalysis is run at eddy-permitting resolution (1/4° horizontal resolution and 50 vertical levels) and consists of a three-dimensional variational data assimilation system, a surface nudging and a bias correction scheme. With respect to the previous version (v4), C-GLORSv5 contains a number of improvements. In particular, background- and observation-error covariances have been retuned, allowing a flow-dependent inflation in the globally averaged background-error variance. An additional constraint on the Arctic sea-ice thickness was introduced, leading to a realistic ice volume evolution. Finally, the bias correction scheme and the initialization strategy were retuned. Results document that the new reanalysis outperforms the previous version in many aspects, especially in representing the variability of global heat content and associated steric sea level in the last decade, the top 80 m ocean temperature biases and root mean square errors, and the Atlantic Ocean meridional overturning circulation; slight worsening in the high-latitude salinity and deep ocean temperature emerge though, providing the motivation for further tuning of the reanalysis system. The dataset is available in NetCDF format at doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.857995.

  10. The global marine phosphorus cycle: sensitivity to oceanic circulation

    C. P. Slomp

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available A new mass balance model for the coupled marine cycles of phosphorus (P and carbon (C is used to examine the relationships between oceanic circulation, primary productivity, and sedimentary burial of reactive P and particulate organic C (POC, on geological time scales. The model explicitly represents the exchanges of water and particulate matter between the continental shelves and the open ocean, and it accounts for the redox-dependent burial of POC and the various forms of reactive P (iron(III-bound P, particulate organic P (POP, authigenic calcium phosphate, and fish debris. Steady state and transient simulations indicate that a slowing down of global ocean circulation decreases primary production in the open ocean, but increases that in the coastal ocean. The latter is due to increased transfer of soluble P from deep ocean water to the shelves, where it fuels primary production and causes increased reactive P burial. While authigenic calcium phosphate accounts for most reactive P burial ocean-wide, enhanced preservation of fish debris may become an important reactive P sink in deep-sea sediments during periods of ocean anoxia. Slower ocean circulation globally increases POC burial, because of enhanced POC preservation under anoxia in deep-sea depositional environments and higher primary productivity along the continental margins. In accordance with geological evidence, the model predicts increased accumulation of reactive P on the continental shelves during and following periods of ocean anoxia.

  11. eWaterCycle: A global operational hydrological forecasting model

    van de Giesen, Nick; Bierkens, Marc; Donchyts, Gennadii; Drost, Niels; Hut, Rolf; Sutanudjaja, Edwin

    2015-04-01

    Development of an operational hyper-resolution hydrological global model is a central goal of the eWaterCycle project (www.ewatercycle.org). This operational model includes ensemble forecasts (14 days) to predict water related stress around the globe. Assimilation of near-real time satellite data is part of the intended product that will be launched at EGU 2015. The challenges come from several directions. First, there are challenges that are mainly computer science oriented but have direct practical hydrological implications. For example, we aim to make use as much as possible of existing standards and open-source software. For example, different parts of our system are coupled through the Basic Model Interface (BMI) developed in the framework of the Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System (CSDMS). The PCR-GLOBWB model, built by Utrecht University, is the basic hydrological model that is the engine of the eWaterCycle project. Re-engineering of parts of the software was needed for it to run efficiently in a High Performance Computing (HPC) environment, and to be able to interface using BMI, and run on multiple compute nodes in parallel. The final aim is to have a spatial resolution of 1km x 1km, which is currently 10 x 10km. This high resolution is computationally not too demanding but very memory intensive. The memory bottleneck becomes especially apparent for data assimilation, for which we use OpenDA. OpenDa allows for different data assimilation techniques without the need to build these from scratch. We have developed a BMI adaptor for OpenDA, allowing OpenDA to use any BMI compatible model. To circumvent memory shortages which would result from standard applications of the Ensemble Kalman Filter, we have developed a variant that does not need to keep all ensemble members in working memory. At EGU, we will present this variant and how it fits well in HPC environments. An important step in the eWaterCycle project was the coupling between the hydrological and

  12. Observation impact studies with the Mercator Ocean analysis and forecasting systems

    Remy, E. D.; Le Traon, P. Y.; Lellouche, J. M.; Drevillon, M.; Turpin, V.; Benkiran, M.

    2016-02-01

    Mercator Ocean produces and delivers in real-time ocean analysis and forecasts on a daily basis. The quality of the analysis highly relies on the availability and quality of the assimilated observations.Tools are developed to estimate the impact of the present network and to help designing the future evolutions of the observing systems in the context of near real time production of ocean analysis and forecasts. OSE and OSSE are the main approaches used in this context. They allow the assessment of the efficiency of a given data set to constrain the ocean model circulation through the data assimilation process. Illustrations will mainly focus on the present and future evolution of the Argo observation network and altimetry constellation, including the potential impact of future SWOT data. Our systems show clear sensitivities to observation array changes, mainly depending on the specified observation error and regional dynamic. Impact on non observed variables can be important and are important to evaluate. Dedicated diagnostics has to be define to measure the improvements bring by each data set. Alternative approaches to OSE and OSSE are also explored: approximate computation of DFS will be presented and discussed. Limitations of each approach will be discussed in the context of real time operation.

  13. How does ocean ventilation change under global warming?

    A. Gnanadesikan

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Since the upper ocean takes up much of the heat added to the earth system by anthropogenic global warming, one would expect that global warming would lead to an increase in stratification and a decrease in the ventilation of the ocean interior. However, multiple simulations in global coupled climate models using an ideal age tracer which is set to zero in the mixed layer and ages at 1 yr/yr outside this layer show that the intermediate depths in the low latitudes, Northwest Atlantic, and parts of the Arctic Ocean become younger under global warming. This paper reconciles these apparently contradictory trends, showing that the decreases result from changes in the relative contributions of old deep waters and younger surface waters. Implications for the tropical oxygen minimum zones, which play a critical role in global biogeochemical cycling are considered in detail.

  14. Global Earth Response to Loading by Ocean Tide Models

    Estes, R. H.; Strayer, J. M.

    1979-01-01

    Mathematical and programming techniques to numerically calculate Earth response to global semidiurnal and diurnal ocean tide models were developed. Global vertical crustal deformations were evaluated for M sub 2, S sub 2, N sub 2, K sub 2, K sub 1, O sub 1, and P sub 1 ocean tide loading, while horizontal deformations were evaluated for the M sub 2 tidal load. Tidal gravity calculations were performed for M sub 2 tidal loads, and strain tensor elements were evaluated for M sub 2 loads. The M sub 2 solution used for the ocean tide included the effects of self-gravitation and crustal loading.

  15. Verification of Global Radiation Forecasts from the Ensemble Prediction System at DMI

    Lundholm, Sisse Camilla

    To comply with an increasing demand for sustainable energy sources, a solar heating unit is being developed at the Technical University of Denmark. To make optimal use — environmentally and economically —, this heating unit is equipped with an intelligent control system using forecasts of the heat...... consumption of the house and the amount of available solar energy. In order to make the most of this solar heating unit, accurate forecasts of the available solar radiation are esstential. However, because of its sensitivity to local meteorological conditions, the solar radiation received at the surface...... of the Earth can be highly fluctuating and challenging to forecast accurately. To comply with the accuracy requirements to forecasts of both global, direct, and diffuse radiation, the uncertainty of these forecasts is of interest. Forecast uncertainties can become accessible by running an ensemble of forecasts...

  16. The role of clouds and oceans in global greenhouse warming

    Hoffert, M.I.

    1992-12-01

    During the past three years we have conducted several studies using models and a combination of satellite data, in situ meteorological and oceanic data, and paleoclimate reconstructions, under the DoE program, ''Quantifying the Link Between Change in Radiative Balance and Atmospheric Temperature''. Our goals were to investigate effects of global cloudiness variations on global climate and their implications for cloud feedback and continue development and application of NYU transient climate/ocean models, with emphasis on coupled effects of greenhouse warming and feedbacks by both the clouds and oceans. Our original research plan emphasized the use of cloud, surface temperature and ocean data sets interpreted by focused climate/ocean models to develop a cloud radiative forcing scenario for the past 100 years and to assess the transient climate response; to narrow key uncertainties in the system; and to identify those aspects of the climate system most likely to be affected by greenhouse warming over short, medium and long time scales

  17. Tsunami Speed Variations in Density-stratified Compressible Global Oceans

    Watada, S.

    2013-12-01

    Recent tsunami observations in the deep ocean have accumulated unequivocal evidence that tsunami traveltime delays compared with the linear long-wave tsunami simulations occur during tsunami propagation in the deep ocean. The delay is up to 2% of the tsunami traveltime. Watada et al. [2013] investigated the cause of the delay using the normal mode theory of tsunamis and attributed the delay to the compressibility of seawater, the elasticity of the solid earth, and the gravitational potential change associated with mass motion during the passage of tsunamis. Tsunami speed variations in the deep ocean caused by seawater density stratification is investigated using a newly developed propagator matrix method that is applicable to seawater with depth-variable sound speeds and density gradients. For a 4-km deep ocean, the total tsunami speed reduction is 0.45% compared with incompressible homogeneous seawater; two thirds of the reduction is due to elastic energy stored in the water and one third is due to water density stratification mainly by hydrostatic compression. Tsunami speeds are computed for global ocean density and sound speed profiles and characteristic structures are discussed. Tsunami speed reductions are proportional to ocean depth with small variations, except for in warm Mediterranean seas. The impacts of seawater compressibility and the elasticity effect of the solid earth on tsunami traveltime should be included for precise modeling of trans-oceanic tsunamis. Data locations where a vertical ocean profile deeper than 2500 m is available in World Ocean Atlas 2009. The dark gray area indicates the Pacific Ocean defined in WOA09. a) Tsunami speed variations. Red, gray and black bars represent global, Pacific, and Mediterranean Sea, respectively. b) Regression lines of the tsunami velocity reduction for all oceans. c)Vertical ocean profiles at grid points indicated by the stars in Figure 1.

  18. Impact of data assimilation on ocean current forecasts in the Angola Basin

    Phillipson, Luke; Toumi, Ralf

    2017-06-01

    The ocean current predictability in the data limited Angola Basin was investigated using the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS) with four-dimensional variational data assimilation. Six experiments were undertaken comprising a baseline case of the assimilation of salinity/temperature profiles and satellite sea surface temperature, with the subsequent addition of altimetry, OSCAR (satellite-derived sea surface currents), drifters, altimetry and drifters combined, and OSCAR and drifters combined. The addition of drifters significantly improves Lagrangian predictability in comparison to the baseline case as well as the addition of either altimetry or OSCAR. OSCAR assimilation only improves Lagrangian predictability as much as altimetry assimilation. On average the assimilation of either altimetry or OSCAR with drifter velocities does not significantly improve Lagrangian predictability compared to the drifter assimilation alone, even degrading predictability in some cases. When the forecast current speed is large, it is more likely that the combination improves trajectory forecasts. Conversely, when the currents are weaker, it is more likely that the combination degrades the trajectory forecast.

  19. Evaluation of cloud properties in the NOAA/NCEP global forecast system using multiple satellite products

    Yoo, Hyelim [University of Maryland, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, College Park, MD (United States); Li, Zhanqing [University of Maryland, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, College Park, MD (United States); Beijing Normal University, State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, GCESS, Beijing (China)

    2012-12-15

    Knowledge of cloud properties and their vertical structure is important for meteorological studies due to their impact on both the Earth's radiation budget and adiabatic heating within the atmosphere. The objective of this study is to evaluate bulk cloud properties and vertical distribution simulated by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System (GFS) using three global satellite products. Cloud variables evaluated include the occurrence and fraction of clouds in up to three layers, cloud optical depth, liquid water path, and ice water path. Cloud vertical structure data are retrieved from both active (CloudSat/CALIPSO) and passive sensors and are subsequently compared with GFS model results. In general, the GFS model captures the spatial patterns of hydrometeors reasonably well and follows the general features seen in satellite measurements, but large discrepancies exist in low-level cloud properties. More boundary layer clouds over the interior continents were generated by the GFS model whereas satellite retrievals showed more low-level clouds over oceans. Although the frequencies of global multi-layer clouds from observations are similar to those from the model, latitudinal variations show discrepancies in terms of structure and pattern. The modeled cloud optical depth over storm track region and subtropical region is less than that from the passive sensor and is overestimated for deep convective clouds. The distributions of ice water path (IWP) agree better with satellite observations than do liquid water path (LWP) distributions. Discrepancies in LWP/IWP distributions between observations and the model are attributed to differences in cloud water mixing ratio and mean relative humidity fields, which are major control variables determining the formation of clouds. (orig.)

  20. Sharing Data in the Global Ocean Observing System (Invited)

    Lindstrom, E. J.; McCurdy, A.; Young, J.; Fischer, A. S.

    2010-12-01

    We examine the evolution of data sharing in the field of physical oceanography to highlight the challenges now before us. Synoptic global observation of the ocean from space and in situ platforms has significantly matured over the last two decades. In the early 1990’s the community data sharing challenges facing the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) largely focused on the behavior of individual scientists. Satellite data sharing depended on the policy of individual agencies. Global data sets were delivered with considerable delay and with enormous personal sacrifice. In the 2000’s the requirements for global data sets and sustained observations from the likes of the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change have led to data sharing and cooperation at a grander level. It is more effective and certainly more efficient. The Joint WMO/IOC Technical Commission on Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM) provided the means to organize many aspects of data collection and data dissemination globally, for the common good. In response the Committee on Earth Observing Satellites organized Virtual Constellations to enable the assembly and sharing of like kinds of satellite data (e.g., sea surface topography, ocean vector winds, and ocean color). Individuals in physical oceanography have largely adapted to the new rigors of sharing data for the common good, and as a result of this revolution new science has been enabled. Primary obstacles to sharing have shifted from the individual level to the national level. As we enter into the 2010’s the demands for ocean data continue to evolve with an expanded requirement for more real-time reporting and broader disciplinary coverage, to answer key scientific and societal questions. We are also seeing the development of more numerous national contributions to the global observing system. The drivers for the establishment of global ocean observing systems are expanding beyond climate to include biological and

  1. Global Climate Change and Ocean Education

    Spitzer, W.; Anderson, J.

    2011-12-01

    The New England Aquarium, collaborating with other aquariums across the country, is leading a national effort to enable aquariums and related informal science education institutions to effectively communicate the impacts of climate change and ocean acidification on marine animals, habitats and ecosystems. Our goal is to build on visitors' emotional connection with ocean animals, connect to their deeply held values, help them understand causes and effects of climate change and motivate them to embrace effective solutions. Our objectives are to: (1) Build a national coalition of aquariums and related informal education institutions collaborating on climate change education; (2) Develop an interpretive framework for climate change and the ocean that is scientifically sound, research-based, field tested and evaluated; and (3) Build capacity of aquariums to interpret climate change via training for interpreters, interactive exhibits and activities and communities of practice for ongoing support. Centers of informal learning have the potential to bring important environmental issues to the public by presenting the facts, explaining the science, connecting with existing values and interests, and motivating concern and action. Centers that work with live animals (including aquariums, zoos, nature centers, national parks, national marine sanctuaries, etc.) are unique in that they attract large numbers of people of all ages (over 140 million in the US), have strong connections to the natural, and engage many visitors who may not come with a primary interest in science. Recent research indicates that that the public expects and trusts aquariums, zoos, and museums to communicate solutions to environmental and ocean issues, and to advance ocean conservation, and that climate change is the environmental issue of most concern to the public; Ironically, however, most people do not associate climate change with ocean health, or understand the critical role that the ocean plays in

  2. Ecogenomics and potential biogeochemical impacts of globally abundant ocean viruses

    Roux, Simon

    2016-05-12

    Ocean microbes drive biogeochemical cycling on a global scale. However, this cycling is constrained by viruses that affect community composition, metabolic activity, and evolutionary trajectories. Owing to challenges with the sampling and cultivation of viruses, genome-level viral diversity remains poorly described and grossly understudied, with less than 1% of observed surface-ocean viruses known. Here we assemble complete genomes and large genomic fragments from both surface-and deep-ocean viruses sampled during the Tara Oceans and Malaspina research expeditions, and analyse the resulting â global ocean virome\\' dataset to present a global map of abundant, double-stranded DNA viruses complete with genomic and ecological contexts. A total of 15,222 epipelagic and mesopelagic viral populations were identified, comprising 867 viral clusters (defined as approximately genus-level groups). This roughly triples the number of known ocean viral populations and doubles the number of candidate bacterial and archaeal virus genera, providing a near-complete sampling of epipelagic communities at both the population and viral-cluster level. We found that 38 of the 867 viral clusters were locally or globally abundant, together accounting for nearly half of the viral populations in any global ocean virome sample. While two-thirds of these clusters represent newly described viruses lacking any cultivated representative, most could be computationally linked to dominant, ecologically relevant microbial hosts. Moreover, we identified 243 viral-encoded auxiliary metabolic genes, of which only 95 were previously known. Deeper analyses of four of these auxiliary metabolic genes (dsrC, soxYZ, P-II (also known as glnB) and amoC) revealed that abundant viruses may directly manipulate sulfur and nitrogen cycling throughout the epipelagic ocean. This viral catalog and functional analyses provide a necessary foundation for the meaningful integration of viruses into ecosystem models where

  3. Ecogenomics and potential biogeochemical impacts of globally abundant ocean viruses.

    Roux, Simon; Brum, Jennifer R; Dutilh, Bas E; Sunagawa, Shinichi; Duhaime, Melissa B; Loy, Alexander; Poulos, Bonnie T; Solonenko, Natalie; Lara, Elena; Poulain, Julie; Pesant, Stéphane; Kandels-Lewis, Stefanie; Dimier, Céline; Picheral, Marc; Searson, Sarah; Cruaud, Corinne; Alberti, Adriana; Duarte, Carlos M; Gasol, Josep M; Vaqué, Dolors; Bork, Peer; Acinas, Silvia G; Wincker, Patrick; Sullivan, Matthew B

    2016-09-29

    Ocean microbes drive biogeochemical cycling on a global scale. However, this cycling is constrained by viruses that affect community composition, metabolic activity, and evolutionary trajectories. Owing to challenges with the sampling and cultivation of viruses, genome-level viral diversity remains poorly described and grossly understudied, with less than 1% of observed surface-ocean viruses known. Here we assemble complete genomes and large genomic fragments from both surface- and deep-ocean viruses sampled during the Tara Oceans and Malaspina research expeditions, and analyse the resulting 'global ocean virome' dataset to present a global map of abundant, double-stranded DNA viruses complete with genomic and ecological contexts. A total of 15,222 epipelagic and mesopelagic viral populations were identified, comprising 867 viral clusters (defined as approximately genus-level groups). This roughly triples the number of known ocean viral populations and doubles the number of candidate bacterial and archaeal virus genera, providing a near-complete sampling of epipelagic communities at both the population and viral-cluster level. We found that 38 of the 867 viral clusters were locally or globally abundant, together accounting for nearly half of the viral populations in any global ocean virome sample. While two-thirds of these clusters represent newly described viruses lacking any cultivated representative, most could be computationally linked to dominant, ecologically relevant microbial hosts. Moreover, we identified 243 viral-encoded auxiliary metabolic genes, of which only 95 were previously known. Deeper analyses of four of these auxiliary metabolic genes (dsrC, soxYZ, P-II (also known as glnB) and amoC) revealed that abundant viruses may directly manipulate sulfur and nitrogen cycling throughout the epipelagic ocean. This viral catalog and functional analyses provide a necessary foundation for the meaningful integration of viruses into ecosystem models where they

  4. Ecogenomics and potential biogeochemical impacts of globally abundant ocean viruses

    Roux, Simon; Brum, Jennifer R; Dutilh, Bas E.; Sunagawa, Shinichi; Duhaime, Melissa B; Loy, Alexander; Poulos, Bonnie T; Solonenko, Natalie; Lara, Elena; Poulain, Julie; Pesant, Stephane; Kandels-Lewis, Stefanie; Dimier, Celine; Picheral, Marc; Searson, Sarah; Cruaud, Corinne; Alberti, Adriana; Duarte, Carlos M.; Gasol, Josep M M; Vaque, Dolors; Bork, Peer; Acinas, Silvia G; Wincker, Patrick; Sullivan, Matthew B

    2016-01-01

    Ocean microbes drive biogeochemical cycling on a global scale. However, this cycling is constrained by viruses that affect community composition, metabolic activity, and evolutionary trajectories. Owing to challenges with the sampling and cultivation of viruses, genome-level viral diversity remains poorly described and grossly understudied, with less than 1% of observed surface-ocean viruses known. Here we assemble complete genomes and large genomic fragments from both surface-and deep-ocean viruses sampled during the Tara Oceans and Malaspina research expeditions, and analyse the resulting â global ocean virome' dataset to present a global map of abundant, double-stranded DNA viruses complete with genomic and ecological contexts. A total of 15,222 epipelagic and mesopelagic viral populations were identified, comprising 867 viral clusters (defined as approximately genus-level groups). This roughly triples the number of known ocean viral populations and doubles the number of candidate bacterial and archaeal virus genera, providing a near-complete sampling of epipelagic communities at both the population and viral-cluster level. We found that 38 of the 867 viral clusters were locally or globally abundant, together accounting for nearly half of the viral populations in any global ocean virome sample. While two-thirds of these clusters represent newly described viruses lacking any cultivated representative, most could be computationally linked to dominant, ecologically relevant microbial hosts. Moreover, we identified 243 viral-encoded auxiliary metabolic genes, of which only 95 were previously known. Deeper analyses of four of these auxiliary metabolic genes (dsrC, soxYZ, P-II (also known as glnB) and amoC) revealed that abundant viruses may directly manipulate sulfur and nitrogen cycling throughout the epipelagic ocean. This viral catalog and functional analyses provide a necessary foundation for the meaningful integration of viruses into ecosystem models where they

  5. The role stratification on Indian ocean mixing under global warming

    Praveen, V.; Valsala, V.; Ravindran, A. M.

    2017-12-01

    The impact of changes in Indian ocean stratification on mixing under global warming is examined. Previous studies on global warming and associated weakening of winds reported to increase the stratification of the world ocean leading to a reduction in mixing, increased acidity, reduced oxygen and there by a reduction in productivity. However this processes is not uniform and are also modulated by changes in wind pattern of the future. Our study evaluate the role of stratification and surface fluxes on mixing focusing northern Indian ocean. A dynamical downscaling study using Regional ocean Modelling system (ROMS) forced with stratification and surface fluxes from selected CMIP5 models are presented. Results from an extensive set of historical and Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (rcp8.5) scenario simulations are used to quantify the distinctive role of stratification on mixing.

  6. Sequential assimilation of multi-mission dynamical topography into a global finite-element ocean model

    S. Skachko

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available This study focuses on an accurate estimation of ocean circulation via assimilation of satellite measurements of ocean dynamical topography into the global finite-element ocean model (FEOM. The dynamical topography data are derived from a complex analysis of multi-mission altimetry data combined with a referenced earth geoid. The assimilation is split into two parts. First, the mean dynamic topography is adjusted. To this end an adiabatic pressure correction method is used which reduces model divergence from the real evolution. Second, a sequential assimilation technique is applied to improve the representation of thermodynamical processes by assimilating the time varying dynamic topography. A method is used according to which the temperature and salinity are updated following the vertical structure of the first baroclinic mode. It is shown that the method leads to a partially successful assimilation approach reducing the rms difference between the model and data from 16 cm to 2 cm. This improvement of the mean state is accompanied by significant improvement of temporal variability in our analysis. However, it remains suboptimal, showing a tendency in the forecast phase of returning toward a free run without data assimilation. Both the mean difference and standard deviation of the difference between the forecast and observation data are reduced as the result of assimilation.

  7. Global ocean modeling on the Connection Machine

    Smith, R.D.; Dukowicz, J.K.; Malone, R.C.

    1993-01-01

    The authors have developed a version of the Bryan-Cox-Semtner ocean model (Bryan, 1969; Semtner, 1976; Cox, 1984) for massively parallel computers. Such models are three-dimensional, Eulerian models that use latitude and longitude as the horizontal spherical coordinates and fixed depth levels as the vertical coordinate. The incompressible Navier-Stokes equations, with a turbulent eddy viscosity, and mass continuity equation are solved, subject to the hydrostatic and Boussinesq approximations. The traditional model formulation uses a rigid-lid approximation (vertical velocity = 0 at the ocean surface) to eliminate fast surface waves. These waves would otherwise require that a very short time step be used in numerical simulations, which would greatly increase the computational cost. To solve the equations with the rigid-lid assumption, the equations of motion are split into two parts: a set of twodimensional ''barotropic'' equations describing the vertically-averaged flow, and a set of three-dimensional ''baroclinic'' equations describing temperature, salinity and deviations of the horizontal velocities from the vertically-averaged flow

  8. Global ocean monitoring for the World Climate Research Programme.

    Revelle, R; Bretherton, F

    1986-07-01

    Oceanic research and modelling for the World Climate Research Program will utilize several recently-developed instruments and measuring techniques as well as well-tested, long-used instruments. Ocean-scanning satellites will map the component of the ocean-surface topography related to ocean currents and mesoscale eddies and to fluctuating water volumes caused by ocean warming and cooling. Other satellite instruments will measure the direction and magnitude of wind stress on the sea surface, surface water temperatures, the distribution of chlorophyll and other photosynthetic pigments, the characteristics of internal waves, and possible precipitation over the ocean. Networks of acoustic transponders will obtain a three-dimensional picture of the distribution of temperature from the surface down to mid-depth and of long-term changes in temperature at depth. Ocean research vessels will determine the distribution and fate of geochemical tracers and will also make high-precision, deep hydrographic casts. Ships of opportunity, using expendable instruments, will measure temperature, salinity and currents in the upper water layers. Drifting and anchored buoys will also measure these properties as well as those of the air above the sea surface. Tide gauges installed on islands and exposed coastal locations will measure variations in monthly and shorter-period mean sea level. These tide gauges will provide 'ground truth' for the satellite maps of sea-surface topography, and will also determine variations in ocean currents and temperature.All these instruments will be used in several major programs, the most ambitious of which is the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) designed to obtain global measurements of major currents throughout the world ocean, greater understanding of the transformation of water masses, and the role of advective, convective, and turbulent processes in exchange of properties between surface and deep-ocean layers.A five- to ten-year experiment

  9. The Sun is the climate pacemaker II. Global ocean temperatures

    Douglass, David H., E-mail: douglass@pas.rochester.edu; Knox, Robert S.

    2015-04-17

    In part I, equatorial Pacific Ocean temperature index SST3.4 was found to have segments during 1990–2014 showing a phase-locked annual signal and phase-locked signals of 2- or 3-year periods. Phase locking is to an inferred solar forcing of 1.0 cycle/yr. Here the study extends to the global ocean, from surface to 700 and 2000 m. The same phase-locking phenomena are found. The El Niño/La Niña effect diffuses into the world oceans with a delay of about two months. - Highlights: • Global ocean temperatures at depths 0–700 m and 0–2000 m from 1990 to 2014 are studied. • The same phase-locked phenomena reported in Paper I are observed. • El Niño/La Niña effects diffuse to the global oceans with a two month delay. • Ocean heat content trends during phase-locked time segments are consistent with zero.

  10. The self-consistent dynamic pole tide in global oceans

    Dickman, S. R.

    1985-01-01

    The dynamic pole tide is characterized in a self-consistent manner by means of introducing a single nondifferential matrix equation compatible with the Liouville equation, modelling the ocean as global and of uniform depth. The deviations of the theory from the realistic ocean, associated with the nonglobality of the latter, are also given consideration, with an inference that in realistic oceans long-period modes of resonances would be increasingly likely to exist. The analysis of the nature of the pole tide and its effects on the Chandler wobble indicate that departures of the pole tide from the equilibrium may indeed be minimal.

  11. The timescales of global surface-ocean connectivity.

    Jönsson, Bror F; Watson, James R

    2016-04-19

    Planktonic communities are shaped through a balance of local evolutionary adaptation and ecological succession driven in large part by migration. The timescales over which these processes operate are still largely unresolved. Here we use Lagrangian particle tracking and network theory to quantify the timescale over which surface currents connect different regions of the global ocean. We find that the fastest path between two patches--each randomly located anywhere in the surface ocean--is, on average, less than a decade. These results suggest that marine planktonic communities may keep pace with climate change--increasing temperatures, ocean acidification and changes in stratification over decadal timescales--through the advection of resilient types.

  12. Global oceanic DMS data inter-comparability

    Bell, T. G.; Malin, G.; Lee, G. A.; Stefels, J.; Archer, S.; Steinke, M.; Matrai, P.

    The global surface seawater dimethylsulphide (DMS) database (http://saga.pmel.noaa.gov/dms/) contains > 50,000 data points and is the second largest trace gas database after carbon dioxide. However, there has been relatively little quality control on the data that have been collated to date.

  13. Climate Forecast System Reforecast (CFSR), for 1981 to 2011

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) was designed and executed as a global, high resolution, coupled atmosphere-ocean-land surface-sea ice system to...

  14. Perfluoroalkylated substances in the global tropical and subtropical surface oceans.

    González-Gaya, Belén; Dachs, Jordi; Roscales, Jose L; Caballero, Gemma; Jiménez, Begoña

    2014-11-18

    In this study, perfluoroalkylated substances (PFASs) were analyzed in 92 surface seawater samples taken during the Malaspina 2010 expedition which covered all the tropical and subtropical Atlantic, Pacific and Indian oceans. Nine ionic PFASs including C6-C10 perfluoroalkyl carboxylic acids (PFCAs), C4 and C6-C8 perfluoroalkyl sulfonic acids (PFSAs) and two neutral precursors perfluoroalkyl sulfonamides (PFASAs), were identified and quantified. The Atlantic Ocean presented the broader range in concentrations of total PFASs (131-10900 pg/L, median 645 pg/L, n = 45) compared to the other oceanic basins, probably due to a better spatial coverage. Total concentrations in the Pacific ranged from 344 to 2500 pg/L (median = 527 pg/L, n = 27) and in the Indian Ocean from 176 to 1976 pg/L (median = 329, n = 18). Perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS) was the most abundant compound, accounting for 33% of the total PFASs globally, followed by perfluorodecanoic acid (PFDA, 22%) and perfluorohexanoic acid (PFHxA, 12%), being the rest of the individual congeners under 10% of total PFASs, even for perfluorooctane carboxylic acid (PFOA, 6%). PFASAs accounted for less than 1% of the total PFASs concentration. This study reports the ubiquitous occurrence of PFCAs, PFSAs, and PFASAs in the global ocean, being the first attempt, to our knowledge, to show a comprehensive assessment in surface water samples collected in a single oceanic expedition covering tropical and subtropical oceans. The potential factors affecting their distribution patterns were assessed including the distance to coastal regions, oceanic subtropical gyres, currents and biogeochemical processes. Field evidence of biogeochemical controls on the occurrence of PFASs was tentatively assessed considering environmental variables (solar radiation, temperature, chlorophyll a concentrations among others), and these showed significant correlations with some PFASs, but explaining small to moderate percentages of variability

  15. Global Ocean Sedimentation Patterns: Plate Tectonic History Versus Climate Change

    Goswami, A.; Reynolds, E.; Olson, P.; Hinnov, L. A.; Gnanadesikan, A.

    2014-12-01

    Global sediment data (Whittaker et al., 2013) and carbonate content data (Archer, 1996) allows examination of ocean sedimentation evolution with respect to age of the underlying ocean crust (Müller et al., 2008). From these data, we construct time series of ocean sediment thickness and carbonate deposition rate for the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian ocean basins for the past 120 Ma. These time series are unique to each basin and reflect an integrated response to plate tectonics and climate change. The goal is to parameterize ocean sedimentation tied to crustal age for paleoclimate studies. For each basin, total sediment thickness and carbonate deposition rate from 0.1 x 0.1 degree cells are binned according to basement crustal age; area-corrected moments (mean, variance, etc.) are calculated for each bin. Segmented linear fits identify trends in present-day carbonate deposition rates and changes in ocean sedimentation from 0 to 120 Ma. In the North and South Atlantic and Indian oceans, mean sediment thickness versus crustal age is well represented by three linear segments, with the slope of each segment increasing with increasing crustal age. However, the transition age between linear segments varies among the three basins. In contrast, mean sediment thickness in the North and South Pacific oceans are numerically smaller and well represented by two linear segments with slopes that decrease with increasing crustal age. These opposing trends are more consistent with the plate tectonic history of each basin being the controlling factor in sedimentation rates, rather than climate change. Unlike total sediment thickness, carbonate deposition rates decrease smoothly with crustal age in all basins, with the primary controls being ocean chemistry and water column depth.References: Archer, D., 1996, Global Biogeochem. Cycles 10, 159-174.Müller, R.D., et al., 2008, Science, 319, 1357-1362.Whittaker, J., et al., 2013, Geochem., Geophys., Geosyst. DOI: 10.1002/ggge.20181

  16. Seafloor 2030 - Building a Global Ocean Map through International Collaboration

    Ferrini, V. L.; Wigley, R. A.; Falconer, R. K. H.; Jakobsson, M.; Allen, G.; Mayer, L. A.; Schmitt, T.; Rovere, M.; Weatherall, P.; Marks, K. M.

    2016-12-01

    With more than 85% of the ocean floor unmapped, a huge proportion of our planet remains unexplored. Creating a comprehensive map of seafloor bathymetry remains a true global challenge that can only be accomplished through collaboration and partnership between governments, industry, academia, research organizations and non-government organizations. The objective of Seafloor 2030 is to comprehensively map the global ocean floor to resolutions that enable exploration and improved understanding of ocean processes, while informing maritime policy and supporting the management of natural marine resources for a sustainable Blue Economy. Seafloor 2030 is the outcome of the Forum for Future of Ocean Floor Mapping held in Monaco in June 2016, which was held under the auspices of GEBCO and the Nippon Foundation of Japan. GEBCO is the only international organization mandated to map the global ocean floor and is guided by the International Hydrographic Organization (IHO) and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO. The task of completely mapping the ocean floor will require new global coordination to ensure that both existing data are identified and that new mapping efforts are coordinated to help efficiently "map the gaps." Fundamental to achieving Seafloor 2030 will be greater access to data, tools and technology, particularly for developing and coastal nations. This includes bathymetric post-processing and analysis software, database technology, computing infrastructure and gridding techniques as well as the latest developments in seafloor mapping methods and emerging crowd-sourced bathymetry initiatives. The key to achieving this global bathymetric map is capacity building and education - including greater coordination between scientific research and industry and the effective engagement of international organizations such as the United Nations.

  17. Assessment of the importance of the current-wave coupling in the shelf ocean forecasts

    G. Jordà

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available The effects of wave-current interactions on shelf ocean forecasts is investigated in the framework of the MFSTEP (Mediterranean Forecasting System Project Towards Enviromental Predictions project. A one way sequential coupling approach is adopted to link the wave model (WAM to the circulation model (SYMPHONIE. The coupling of waves and currents has been done considering four main processes: wave refraction due to currents, surface wind drag and bottom drag modifications due to waves, and the wave induced mass flux. The coupled modelling system is implemented in the southern Catalan shelf (NW Mediterranean, a region with characteristics similar to most of the Mediterranean shelves. The sensitivity experiments are run in a typical operational configuration. The wave refraction by currents seems to be not very relevant in a microtidal context such as the western Mediterranean. The main effect of waves on current forecasts is through the modification of the wind drag. The Stokes drift also plays a significant role due to its spatial and temporal characteristics. Finally, the enhanced bottom friction is just noticeable in the inner shelf.

  18. Decadal Changes in Global Ocean Annual Primary Production

    Gregg, Watson; Conkright, Margarita E.; Behrenfeld, Michael J.; Ginoux, Paul; Casey, Nancy W.; Koblinsky, Chester J. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor (SeaWiFS) has produced the first multi-year time series of global ocean chlorophyll observations since the demise of the Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) in 1986. Global observations from 1997-present from SeaWiFS combined with observations from 1979-1986 from the CZCS should in principle provide an opportunity to observe decadal changes in global ocean annual primary production, since chlorophyll is the primary driver for estimates of primary production. However, incompatibilities between algorithms have so far precluded quantitative analysis. We have developed and applied compatible processing methods for the CZCS, using modern advances in atmospheric correction and consistent bio-optical algorithms to advance the CZCS archive to comparable quality with SeaWiFS. We applied blending methodologies, where in situ data observations are incorporated into the CZCS and SeaWiFS data records, to provide improvement of the residuals. These re-analyzed, blended data records provide maximum compatibility and permit, for the first time, a quantitative analysis of the changes in global ocean primary production in the early-to-mid 1980's and the present, using synoptic satellite observations. An intercomparison of the global and regional primary production from these blended satellite observations is important to understand global climate change and the effects on ocean biota. Photosynthesis by chlorophyll-containing phytoplankton is responsible for biotic uptake of carbon in the oceans and potentially ultimately from the atmosphere. Global ocean annual primary decreased from the CZCS record to SeaWiFS, by nearly 6% from the early 1980s to the present. Annual primary production in the high latitudes was responsible for most of the decadal change. Conversely, primary production in the low latitudes generally increased, with the exception of the tropical Pacific. The differences and similarities of the two data records provide evidence

  19. Ocean Predictability and Uncertainty Forecasts Using Local Ensemble Transfer Kalman Filter (LETKF)

    Wei, M.; Hogan, P. J.; Rowley, C. D.; Smedstad, O. M.; Wallcraft, A. J.; Penny, S. G.

    2017-12-01

    Ocean predictability and uncertainty are studied with an ensemble system that has been developed based on the US Navy's operational HYCOM using the Local Ensemble Transfer Kalman Filter (LETKF) technology. One of the advantages of this method is that the best possible initial analysis states for the HYCOM forecasts are provided by the LETKF which assimilates operational observations using ensemble method. The background covariance during this assimilation process is implicitly supplied with the ensemble avoiding the difficult task of developing tangent linear and adjoint models out of HYCOM with the complicated hybrid isopycnal vertical coordinate for 4D-VAR. The flow-dependent background covariance from the ensemble will be an indispensable part in the next generation hybrid 4D-Var/ensemble data assimilation system. The predictability and uncertainty for the ocean forecasts are studied initially for the Gulf of Mexico. The results are compared with another ensemble system using Ensemble Transfer (ET) method which has been used in the Navy's operational center. The advantages and disadvantages are discussed.

  20. Output fields from the NOAA Atlantic Real-Time Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS) for 2006-05-31 to 2017-03-21

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Atlantic Real-Time Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS) dataset comprises output fields from the daily operational RTOFS model runs conducted at the National...

  1. Noise Reduction of Ocean-Bottom Pressure Data Toward Real-Time Tsunami Forecasting

    Tsushima, H.; Hino, R.

    2008-12-01

    We discuss a method of noise reduction of ocean-bottom pressure data to be fed into the near-field tsunami forecasting scheme proposed by Tsushima et al. [2008a]. In their scheme, the pressure data is processed in real time as follows: (1) removing ocean tide components by subtracting the sea-level variation computed from a theoretical tide model, (2) applying low-pass digital filter to remove high-frequency fluctuation due to seismic waves, and (3) removing DC-offset and linear-trend component to determine a baseline of relative sea level. However, it turns out this simple method is not always successful in extracting tsunami waveforms from the data, when the observed amplitude is ~1cm. For disaster mitigation, accurate forecasting of small tsunamis is important as well as large tsunamis. Since small tsunami events occur frequently, successful tsunami forecasting of those events are critical to obtain public reliance upon tsunami warnings. As a test case, we applied the data-processing described above to the bottom pressure records containing tsunami with amplitude less than 1 cm which was generated by the 2003 Off-Fukushima earthquake occurring in the Japan Trench subduction zone. The observed pressure variation due to the ocean tide is well explained by the calculated tide signals from NAO99Jb model [Matsumoto et al., 2000]. However, the tide components estimated by BAYTAP-G [Tamura et al., 1991] from the pressure data is more appropriate for predicting and removing the ocean tide signals. In the pressure data after removing the tide variations, there remain pressure fluctuations with frequencies ranging from about 0.1 to 1 mHz and with amplitudes around ~10 cm. These fluctuations distort the estimation of zero-level and linear trend to define relative sea-level variation, which is treated as tsunami waveform in the subsequent analysis. Since the linear trend is estimated from the data prior to the origin time of the earthquake, an artificial linear trend is

  2. Global ocean conveyor lowers extinction risk in the deep sea

    Henry, Lea-Anne; Frank, Norbert; Hebbeln, Dierk; Wienberg, Claudia; Robinson, Laura; van de Flierdt, Tina; Dahl, Mikael; Douarin, Mélanie; Morrison, Cheryl L.; López Correa, Matthias; Rogers, Alex D.; Ruckelshausen, Mario; Roberts, J. Murray

    2014-06-01

    General paradigms of species extinction risk are urgently needed as global habitat loss and rapid climate change threaten Earth with what could be its sixth mass extinction. Using the stony coral Lophelia pertusa as a model organism with the potential for wide larval dispersal, we investigated how the global ocean conveyor drove an unprecedented post-glacial range expansion in Earth's largest biome, the deep sea. We compiled a unique ocean-scale dataset of published radiocarbon and uranium-series dates of fossil corals, the sedimentary protactinium-thorium record of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength, authigenic neodymium and lead isotopic ratios of circulation pathways, and coral biogeography, and integrated new Bayesian estimates of historic gene flow. Our compilation shows how the export of Southern Ocean and Mediterranean waters after the Younger Dryas 11.6 kyr ago simultaneously triggered two dispersal events in the western and eastern Atlantic respectively. Each pathway injected larvae from refugia into ocean currents powered by a re-invigorated AMOC that led to the fastest postglacial range expansion ever recorded, covering 7500 km in under 400 years. In addition to its role in modulating global climate, our study illuminates how the ocean conveyor creates broad geographic ranges that lower extinction risk in the deep sea.

  3. Coordination and Integration of Global Ocean Observing through JCOMM

    Legler, D. M.; Meldrum, D. T.; Hill, K. L.; Charpentier, E.

    2016-02-01

    The primary objective of the JCOMM Observations Coordination Group (OCG) is to provide technical coordination to implement fully integrated ocean observing system across the entire marine meteorology and oceanographic community. JCOMM OCG works in partnership with the Global Ocean Observing System, , which focusses on setting observing system requirements and conducting evalutions. JCOMM OCG initially focused on major global observing networks (e.g. Argo profiling floats, moored buoys, ship based observations, sea level stations, reference sites, etc), and is now expanding its horizon in recognition of new observing needs and new technologies/networks (e.g. ocean gliders). Over the next five years the JCOMM OCG is focusing its attention on integration and coordination in four major areas: observing network implementation particularly in response to integrated ocean observing requirements; observing system monitoring and metrics; standards and best practices; and improving integrated data management and access. This presentation will describe the scope and mission of JCOMM OCG; summarize the state of the global ocean observing system; highlight recent successes and resources for the research, prediction, and assessment communities; summarize our plans for the next several years; and suggest engagement opportunities.

  4. Forecast skill score assessment of a relocatable ocean prediction system, using a simplified objective analysis method

    Onken, Reiner

    2017-11-01

    A relocatable ocean prediction system (ROPS) was employed to an observational data set which was collected in June 2014 in the waters to the west of Sardinia (western Mediterranean) in the framework of the REP14-MED experiment. The observational data, comprising more than 6000 temperature and salinity profiles from a fleet of underwater gliders and shipborne probes, were assimilated in the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), which is the heart of ROPS, and verified against independent observations from ScanFish tows by means of the forecast skill score as defined by Murphy(1993). A simplified objective analysis (OA) method was utilised for assimilation, taking account of only those profiles which were located within a predetermined time window W. As a result of a sensitivity study, the highest skill score was obtained for a correlation length scale C = 12.5 km, W = 24 h, and r = 1, where r is the ratio between the error of the observations and the background error, both for temperature and salinity. Additional ROPS runs showed that (i) the skill score of assimilation runs was mostly higher than the score of a control run without assimilation, (i) the skill score increased with increasing forecast range, and (iii) the skill score for temperature was higher than the score for salinity in the majority of cases. Further on, it is demonstrated that the vast number of observations can be managed by the applied OA method without data reduction, enabling timely operational forecasts even on a commercially available personal computer or a laptop.

  5. Role of coral reefs in global ocean production

    Crossland, C J; Hatcher, B G; Smith, S V [CSIRO Institute of Natural Resources and Environment, Dickson, ACT (Australia)

    1991-01-01

    Coral reefs cover some 600 thousand square kilometres of the earth's surface (0.17% of the ocean surface). First order estimates show coral reefs to contribute about 0.05% of the estimated net CO{sub 2} fixation rate of the global oceans. Gross CO{sub 2} fixation is relatively high (of the order 700 x 10{sup 12}g C year{sup -1}), but most of this material is recycled within the reefs. Excess (net) production of organic material (E) is much smaller, of the order 20 x 10{sup 12}g C year{sup -1}. 75% of E is available for export from coral reefs to adjacent areas. Comparison of estimates for net production by reefs and their surrounding oceans indicates that the excess production by coral reefs is similar to new production in the photic zone of oligotrophic oceans. Consequently, estimates for global ocean production should as a first approximation include reefal areas with the surrounding ocean when assigning average net production rates. It can be concluded that organic production by reefs plays a relatively minor role in the global scale of fluxes and storage of elements. In comparison, the companion process of biologically-mediated inorganic carbon precipitation represents a major role for reefs. While reef production does respond on local scales to variation in ocean climate, neither the absolute rates nor the amount accumulated into organic pools appear to be either sensitive indicators or accurate recorders of climatic change in most reef systems. Similarly, the productivity of most reefs should be little affected by currently predicted environmental changes resulting from the greenhouse effect. 86 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab.

  6. Antarctic and Southern Ocean influences on Late Pliocene global cooling

    McKay, R.; Naish, T.; Carter, L.; Riesselman, C.; Dunbar, R.; Sjunneskog, C.; Winter, D.; Sangiorgi, F.; Warren, C.; Pagani, M.; Schouten, S.; Willmott, V.; Levy, R.; DeConto , R.M.; Powell, R.D.

    2012-01-01

    The influence of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean on Late Pliocene global climate reconstructions has remained ambiguous due to a lack of well-dated Antarctic-proximal, paleoenvironmental records. Here we present ice sheet, sea-surface temperature, and sea ice reconstructions from the ANDRILL

  7. Satellite-detected fluorescence reveals global physiology of ocean phytoplankton

    M. J. Behrenfeld

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Phytoplankton photosynthesis links global ocean biology and climate-driven fluctuations in the physical environment. These interactions are largely expressed through changes in phytoplankton physiology, but physiological status has proven extremely challenging to characterize globally. Phytoplankton fluorescence does provide a rich source of physiological information long exploited in laboratory and field studies, and is now observed from space. Here we evaluate the physiological underpinnings of global variations in satellite-based phytoplankton chlorophyll fluorescence. The three dominant factors influencing fluorescence distributions are chlorophyll concentration, pigment packaging effects on light absorption, and light-dependent energy-quenching processes. After accounting for these three factors, resultant global distributions of quenching-corrected fluorescence quantum yields reveal a striking consistency with anticipated patterns of iron availability. High fluorescence quantum yields are typically found in low iron waters, while low quantum yields dominate regions where other environmental factors are most limiting to phytoplankton growth. Specific properties of photosynthetic membranes are discussed that provide a mechanistic view linking iron stress to satellite-detected fluorescence. Our results present satellite-based fluorescence as a valuable tool for evaluating nutrient stress predictions in ocean ecosystem models and give the first synoptic observational evidence that iron plays an important role in seasonal phytoplankton dynamics of the Indian Ocean. Satellite fluorescence may also provide a path for monitoring climate-phytoplankton physiology interactions and improving descriptions of phytoplankton light use efficiencies in ocean productivity models.

  8. Distribution of mesozooplankton biomass in the global ocean

    R. Moriarty

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Mesozooplankton are cosmopolitan within the sunlit layers of the global ocean. They are important in the pelagic food web, having a significant feedback to primary production through their consumption of phytoplankton and microzooplankton. In many regions of the global ocean, they are also the primary contributors to vertical particle flux in the oceans. Through both they affect the biogeochemical cycling of carbon and other nutrients in the oceans. Little, however, is known about their global distribution and biomass. While global maps of mesozooplankton biomass do exist in the literature, they are usually in the form of hand-drawn maps for which the original data associated with these maps are not readily available. The dataset presented in this synthesis has been in development since the late 1990s, is an integral part of the Coastal and Oceanic Plankton Ecology, Production, and Observation Database (COPEPOD, and is now also part of a wider community effort to provide a global picture of carbon biomass data for key plankton functional types, in particular to support the development of marine ecosystem models. A total of 153 163 biomass values were collected, from a variety of sources, for mesozooplankton. Of those 2% were originally recorded as dry mass, 26% as wet mass, 5% as settled volume, and 68% as displacement volume. Using a variety of non-linear biomass conversions from the literature, the data have been converted from their original units to carbon biomass. Depth-integrated values were then used to calculate an estimate of mesozooplankton global biomass. Global epipelagic mesozooplankton biomass, to a depth of 200 m, had a mean of 5.9 μg C L−1, median of 2.7 μg C L−1 and a standard deviation of 10.6 μg C L−1. The global annual average estimate of mesozooplankton in the top 200 m, based on the median value, was 0.19 Pg C. Biomass was highest in the Northern Hemisphere, and there were slight decreases from polar oceans (40

  9. Potential Increasing Dominance of Heterotrophy in the Global Ocean

    Kvale, K.; Meissner, K. J.; Keller, D. P.

    2016-02-01

    Autotrophs are largely limited by resources in the modern ocean. However, standard metabolic theory suggests continued ocean warming could globally benefit heterotrophs, thereby reducing autotrophic nutrient limitation. The paleo record as well as modern observations offer evidence this has happened in the past and could happen again. Increasing dominance of heterotrophs would result in strong nutrient recycling in the upper ocean and high rates of net primary production (NPP), yet low carbon export to the deep ocean and sediments. We describe the transition towards such a state in the early 22nd century as a response to business-as-usual Representative Concentration Pathway forcing (RCP8.5) in an intermediate complexity Earth system model in three configurations: with and without an explicit calcifier phytoplankton class and calcite ballast model. In all models nutrient regeneration in the near surface becomes an increasingly important driver of primary production. The near-linear relationship between changes in NPP and global sea surface temperature (SST) found over the 21st century becomes exponential above a 2-4 °C global mean SST change. This transition to a more heterotrophic ocean agrees roughly with metabolic theory. Inclusion of small phytoplankton and calcifiers increase the model NPP:SST sensitivity because of their relatively higher nutrient affinity than general phytoplankton. Accounting for organic carbon "protected" from remineralization by carbonate ballast mitigates the exponential increase in NPP and provides an increasingly important pathway for deep carbon export with higher SST changes, despite simultaneous increasing carbonate dissolution rates due to ocean acidification.

  10. Effect of ocean gateways on the global ocean circulation in the late Oligocene and early Miocene

    von der Heydt, A.S.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/245567526; Dijkstra, H.A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073504467

    2006-01-01

    We investigate the effect of changes in the tectonic boundary conditions on global ocean circulation patterns. Using a fully coupled climate model in an idealized setup, we compare situations corresponding to the late Oligocene, the early Miocene, and present day. The model results show the

  11. Global Ocean Data Analysis Project, Version 2 (GLODAPv2) (NCEI Accession 0162565)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data product is composed of data from 724 scientific cruises covering the global ocean. It includes data assembled during the previous interior ocean data...

  12. GLobal Ocean Data Analysis Project (GLODAP) version 1.1 (NODC Accession 0001644)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The GLobal Ocean Data Analysis Project (GLODAP) is a cooperative effort to coordinate global synthesis projects funded through NOAA/DOE and NSF as part of the Joint...

  13. The impact of scatterometer wind data on global weather forecasting

    Atlas, D.; Baker, W. E.; Kalnay, E.; Halem, M.; Woiceshyn, P. M.; Peteherych, S.

    1984-01-01

    The impact of SEASAT-A scatterometer (SASS) winds on coarse resolution atmospheric model forecasts was assessed. The scatterometer provides high resolution winds, but each wind can have up to four possible directions. One wind direction is correct; the remainder are ambiguous or "aliases'. In general, the effect of objectively dealiased-SASS data was found to be negligible in the Northern Hemisphere. In the Southern Hemisphere, the impact was larger and primarily beneficial when vertical temperature profile radiometer (VTPR) data was excluded. However, the inclusion of VTPR data eliminates the positive impact, indicating some redundancy between the two data sets.

  14. Climatological distribution of aragonite saturation state in the global oceans

    Jiang, Li-Qing; Feely, Richard A.; Carter, Brendan R.; Greeley, Dana J.; Gledhill, Dwight K.; Arzayus, Krisa M.

    2015-10-01

    Aragonite saturation state (Ωarag) in surface and subsurface waters of the global oceans was calculated from up-to-date (through the year of 2012) ocean station dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and total alkalinity (TA) data. Surface Ωarag in the open ocean was always supersaturated (Ω > 1), ranging between 1.1 and 4.2. It was above 2.0 (2.0-4.2) between 40°N and 40°S but decreased toward higher latitude to below 1.5 in polar areas. The influences of water temperature on the TA/DIC ratio, combined with the temperature effects on inorganic carbon equilibrium and apparent solubility product (K'sp), explain the latitudinal differences in surface Ωarag. Vertically, Ωarag was highest in the surface mixed layer. Higher hydrostatic pressure, lower water temperature, and more CO2 buildup from biological activity in the absence of air-sea gas exchange helped maintain lower Ωarag in the deep ocean. Below the thermocline, aerobic decomposition of organic matter along the pathway of global thermohaline circulation played an important role in controlling Ωarag distributions. Seasonally, surface Ωarag above 30° latitudes was about 0.06 to 0.55 higher during warmer months than during colder months in the open-ocean waters of both hemispheres. Decadal changes of Ωarag in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans showed that Ωarag in waters shallower than 100 m depth decreased by 0.10 ± 0.09 (-0.40 ± 0.37% yr-1) on average from the decade spanning 1989-1998 to the decade spanning 1998-2010.

  15. Spacebased Observation of Water Balance Over Global Oceans

    Liu, W.; Xie, X.

    2008-12-01

    We demonstrated that ocean surface fresh water flux less the water discharge into the ocean from river and ice melt balances the mass loss in the ocean both in magnitude and in the phase of annual variation. The surface water flux was computed from the divergence of the water transport integrated over the depth of the atmosphere. The atmospheric water transport is estimated from the precipitable water measured by Special Sensor Microwave Imager, the surface wind vector by QuikSCAT, and the NOAA cloud drift wind through a statistical model. The transport has been extensively validated using global radiosonde and data and operational numerical weather prediction results. Its divergence has been shown to agree with the difference between evaporation estimated from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer data and the precipitation measured by Tropical Rain Measuring Mission over the global tropical and subtropical oceans both in magnitude and geographical distribution for temporal scales ranging from intraseasonal to interannual. The water loss rate in the ocean is estimated by two methods, one is from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment and the other is by subtracting the climatological steric change from the sea level change measured by radar altimeter on Jason. Only climatological river discharge and ice melt from in situ measurements are available and the lack of temporal variation may contribute to discrepancies in the balance. We have successfully used the spacebased surface fluxes to estimate to climatological mean heat transport in the Atlantic ocean and is attempting to estimate the meridional fresh water (or salt) transport from the surface flux. The approximate closure of the water balance gives a powerful indirect validation of the spacebased products.

  16. Towards accounting for dissolved iron speciation in global ocean models

    A. Tagliabue

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The trace metal iron (Fe is now routinely included in state-of-the-art ocean general circulation and biogeochemistry models (OGCBMs because of its key role as a limiting nutrient in regions of the world ocean important for carbon cycling and air-sea CO2 exchange. However, the complexities of the seawater Fe cycle, which impact its speciation and bioavailability, are simplified in such OGCBMs due to gaps in understanding and to avoid high computational costs. In a similar fashion to inorganic carbon speciation, we outline a means by which the complex speciation of Fe can be included in global OGCBMs in a reasonably cost-effective manner. We construct an Fe speciation model based on hypothesised relationships between rate constants and environmental variables (temperature, light, oxygen, pH, salinity and assumptions regarding the binding strengths of Fe complexing organic ligands and test hypotheses regarding their distributions. As a result, we find that the global distribution of different Fe species is tightly controlled by spatio-temporal environmental variability and the distribution of Fe binding ligands. Impacts on bioavailable Fe are highly sensitive to assumptions regarding which Fe species are bioavailable and how those species vary in space and time. When forced by representations of future ocean circulation and climate we find large changes to the speciation of Fe governed by pH mediated changes to redox kinetics. We speculate that these changes may exert selective pressure on phytoplankton Fe uptake strategies in the future ocean. In future work, more information on the sources and sinks of ocean Fe ligands, their bioavailability, the cycling of colloidal Fe species and kinetics of Fe-surface coordination reactions would be invaluable. We hope our modeling approach can provide a means by which new observations of Fe speciation can be tested against hypotheses of the processes present in governing the ocean Fe cycle in an

  17. Log-Normal Turbulence Dissipation in Global Ocean Models

    Pearson, Brodie; Fox-Kemper, Baylor

    2018-03-01

    Data from turbulent numerical simulations of the global ocean demonstrate that the dissipation of kinetic energy obeys a nearly log-normal distribution even at large horizontal scales O (10 km ) . As the horizontal scales of resolved turbulence are larger than the ocean is deep, the Kolmogorov-Yaglom theory for intermittency in 3D homogeneous, isotropic turbulence cannot apply; instead, the down-scale potential enstrophy cascade of quasigeostrophic turbulence should. Yet, energy dissipation obeys approximate log-normality—robustly across depths, seasons, regions, and subgrid schemes. The distribution parameters, skewness and kurtosis, show small systematic departures from log-normality with depth and subgrid friction schemes. Log-normality suggests that a few high-dissipation locations dominate the integrated energy and enstrophy budgets, which should be taken into account when making inferences from simplified models and inferring global energy budgets from sparse observations.

  18. Forecasting hourly global solar radiation using hybrid k-means and nonlinear autoregressive neural network models

    Benmouiza, Khalil; Cheknane, Ali

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • An unsupervised clustering algorithm with a neural network model was explored. • The forecasting results of solar radiation time series and the comparison of their performance was simulated. • A new method was proposed combining k-means algorithm and NAR network to provide better prediction results. - Abstract: In this paper, we review our work for forecasting hourly global horizontal solar radiation based on the combination of unsupervised k-means clustering algorithm and artificial neural networks (ANN). k-Means algorithm focused on extracting useful information from the data with the aim of modeling the time series behavior and find patterns of the input space by clustering the data. On the other hand, nonlinear autoregressive (NAR) neural networks are powerful computational models for modeling and forecasting nonlinear time series. Taking the advantage of both methods, a new method was proposed combining k-means algorithm and NAR network to provide better forecasting results

  19. Energetics of global ocean tides from Geosat altimetry

    Cartwright, David E.; Ray, Richard D.

    1991-01-01

    The present paper focuses on resonance and energetics of the daily tides, especially in the southern ocean, the distribution of gravitational power input of daily and half-daily tides, and comparison with other estimates of global dissipation rates. The present global tidal maps, derived from Geosat altimetry, compare favorably with ground truth data at about the same rms level as the models of Schwiderski (1983), and are slightly better in lunar than in solar tides. Diurnal admittances clearly show Kelvin wave structure in the southern ocean and confirm the resonant mode of Platzman (1984) at 28.5 + or - 0.1 hr with an apparent Q of about 4. Driving energy is found to enter dominantly in the North Pacific for the daily tides and is strongly peaked in the tropical oceans for the half-daily tides. Global rates of working on all major tide constituents except S2 agree well with independent results from analyses of gravity through satellite tracking. Comparison at S2 is improved by allowing for the air tide in gravitational results but suggests deficiencies in all solar tide models.

  20. Global biogeography of Prochlorococcus genome diversity in the surface ocean.

    Kent, Alyssa G; Dupont, Chris L; Yooseph, Shibu; Martiny, Adam C

    2016-08-01

    Prochlorococcus, the smallest known photosynthetic bacterium, is abundant in the ocean's surface layer despite large variation in environmental conditions. There are several genetically divergent lineages within Prochlorococcus and superimposed on this phylogenetic diversity is extensive gene gain and loss. The environmental role in shaping the global ocean distribution of genome diversity in Prochlorococcus is largely unknown, particularly in a framework that considers the vertical and lateral mechanisms of evolution. Here we show that Prochlorococcus field populations from a global circumnavigation harbor extensive genome diversity across the surface ocean, but this diversity is not randomly distributed. We observed a significant correspondence between phylogenetic and gene content diversity, including regional differences in both phylogenetic composition and gene content that were related to environmental factors. Several gene families were strongly associated with specific regions and environmental factors, including the identification of a set of genes related to lower nutrient and temperature regions. Metagenomic assemblies of natural Prochlorococcus genomes reinforced this association by providing linkage of genes across genomic backbones. Overall, our results show that the phylogeography in Prochlorococcus taxonomy is echoed in its genome content. Thus environmental variation shapes the functional capabilities and associated ecosystem role of the globally abundant Prochlorococcus.

  1. Variability in global ocean phytoplankton distribution over 1979-2007

    Masotti, I.; Alvain, S.; Moulin, C.; Antoine, D.

    2009-04-01

    Recently, reanalysis of long-term ocean color data (CZCS and SeaWiFS; Antoine et al., 2005) has shown that world ocean average phytoplankton chlorophyll levels show an increase of 20% over the last two decades. It is however unknown whether this increase is associated with a change in the distribution of phytoplankton groups or if it simply corresponds to an increase of the productivity. Within the framework of the GLOBPHY project, the distribution of the phytoplankton groups was monitored by applying the PHYSAT method (Alvain et al., 2005) to the historical ocean color data series from CZCS, OCTS and SeaWiFS sensors. The PHYSAT algorithm allows identification of several phytoplankton, like nanoeucaryotes, prochlorococcus, synechococcus and diatoms. Because both sensors (OCTS-SeaWiFS) are very similar, OCTS data were processed with the standard PHYSAT algorithm to cover the 1996-1997 period during which a large El Niño event occurred, just before the SeaWiFS era. Our analysis of this dataset (1996-2006) evidences a strong variability in the distribution of phytoplankton groups at both regional and global scales. In the equatorial region (0°-5°S), a three-fold increase of nanoeucaryotes frequency was detected in opposition to a two-fold decrease of synechococcus during the early stages of El Niño conditions (May-June 1997, OCTS). The impact of this El Niño is however not confined to the Equatorial Pacific and has affected the global ocean. The processing of CZCS data with PHYSAT has required several adaptations of this algorithm due to the lower performances and the reduced number of spectral bands of the sensor. Despites higher uncertainties, the phytoplankton groups distribution obtained with CZCS is globally consistent with that of SeaWiFS. A comparison of variability in global phytoplankton distribution between 1979-1982 (CZCS) and 1999-2002 (SeaWiFS) suggests an increase in nanoeucaryotes at high latitudes (>40°) and in the equatorial region (10°S-10

  2. The high-resolution global SST forecast set of the CSIR

    Landman, WA

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available -RESOLUTION GLOBAL SST FORECAST SET OF THE CSIR Willem A. Landman Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, P. O. Box 395, Pretoria, 0001, South Africa David G. DeWitt and Dong-Eun Lee International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Lamont...

  3. Will high-resolution global ocean models benefit coupled predictions on short-range to climate timescales?

    Hewitt, Helene T.; Bell, Michael J.; Chassignet, Eric P.; Czaja, Arnaud; Ferreira, David; Griffies, Stephen M.; Hyder, Pat; McClean, Julie L.; New, Adrian L.; Roberts, Malcolm J.

    2017-12-01

    As the importance of the ocean in the weather and climate system is increasingly recognised, operational systems are now moving towards coupled prediction not only for seasonal to climate timescales but also for short-range forecasts. A three-way tension exists between the allocation of computing resources to refine model resolution, the expansion of model complexity/capability, and the increase of ensemble size. Here we review evidence for the benefits of increased ocean resolution in global coupled models, where the ocean component explicitly represents transient mesoscale eddies and narrow boundary currents. We consider lessons learned from forced ocean/sea-ice simulations; from studies concerning the SST resolution required to impact atmospheric simulations; and from coupled predictions. Impacts of the mesoscale ocean in western boundary current regions on the large-scale atmospheric state have been identified. Understanding of air-sea feedback in western boundary currents is modifying our view of the dynamics in these key regions. It remains unclear whether variability associated with open ocean mesoscale eddies is equally important to the large-scale atmospheric state. We include a discussion of what processes can presently be parameterised in coupled models with coarse resolution non-eddying ocean models, and where parameterizations may fall short. We discuss the benefits of resolution and identify gaps in the current literature that leave important questions unanswered.

  4. The influence of Southern Ocean surface buoyancy forcing on glacial-interglacial changes in the global deep ocean stratification

    Sun, S; Eisenman, I; Stewart, AL

    2016-01-01

    ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Previous studies have suggested that the global ocean density stratification below ∼3000 m is approximately set by its direct connection to the Southern Ocean surface density, which in turn is constrained by the atmosphere. Here the role of Southern Ocean surface forcing in glacial-interglacial stratification changes is investigated using a comprehensive climate model and an idealized conceptual model. Southern Ocean surface forcing is f...

  5. Formulation of an ocean model for global climate simulations

    S. M. Griffies

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper summarizes the formulation of the ocean component to the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's (GFDL climate model used for the 4th IPCC Assessment (AR4 of global climate change. In particular, it reviews the numerical schemes and physical parameterizations that make up an ocean climate model and how these schemes are pieced together for use in a state-of-the-art climate model. Features of the model described here include the following: (1 tripolar grid to resolve the Arctic Ocean without polar filtering, (2 partial bottom step representation of topography to better represent topographically influenced advective and wave processes, (3 more accurate equation of state, (4 three-dimensional flux limited tracer advection to reduce overshoots and undershoots, (5 incorporation of regional climatological variability in shortwave penetration, (6 neutral physics parameterization for representation of the pathways of tracer transport, (7 staggered time stepping for tracer conservation and numerical efficiency, (8 anisotropic horizontal viscosities for representation of equatorial currents, (9 parameterization of exchange with marginal seas, (10 incorporation of a free surface that accomodates a dynamic ice model and wave propagation, (11 transport of water across the ocean free surface to eliminate unphysical ``virtual tracer flux' methods, (12 parameterization of tidal mixing on continental shelves. We also present preliminary analyses of two particularly important sensitivities isolated during the development process, namely the details of how parameterized subgridscale eddies transport momentum and tracers.

  6. Ocean heat content and ocean energy budget: make better use of historical global subsurface temperature dataset

    Cheng, L.; Zhu, J.

    2016-02-01

    Ocean heat content (OHC) change contributes substantially to global sea level rise, also is a key metric of the ocean/global energy budget, so it is a vital task for the climate research community to estimate historical OHC. While there are large uncertainties regarding its value, here we review the OHC calculation by using the historical global subsurface temperature dataset, and discuss the sources of its uncertainty. The presentation briefly introduces how to correct to the systematic biases in expendable bathythermograph (XBT) data, a alternative way of filling data gaps (which is main focus of this talk), and how to choose a proper climatology. A new reconstruction of historical upper (0-700 m) OHC change will be presented, which is the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) version of historical upper OHC assessment. The authors also want to highlight the impact of observation system change on OHC calculation, which could lead to bias in OHC estimates. Furthermore, we will compare the updated observational-based estimates on ocean heat content change since 1970s with CMIP5 results. This comparison shows good agreement, increasing the confidence of the climate models in representing the climate history.

  7. The Implementation of NEMS GFS Aerosol Component (NGAC) Version 1.0 for Global Dust Forecasting at NOAA NCEP

    Lu, Cheng-Hsuan; Da Silva, Arlindo M.; Wang, Jun; Moorthi, Shrinivas; Chin, Mian; Colarco, Peter; Tang, Youhua; Bhattacharjee, Partha S.; Chen, Shen-Po; Chuang, Hui-Ya; hide

    2016-01-01

    The NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) implemented the NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) Global Forecast System (GFS) Aerosol Component (NGAC) for global dust forecasting in collaboration with NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). NGAC Version 1.0 has been providing 5-day dust forecasts at 1deg x 1deg resolution on a global scale, once per day at 00:00 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC), since September 2012. This is the first global system capable of interactive atmosphere aerosol forecasting at NCEP. The implementation of NGAC V1.0 reflects an effective and efficient transitioning of NASA research advances to NCEP operations, paving the way for NCEP to provide global aerosol products serving a wide range of stakeholders, as well as to allow the effects of aerosols on weather forecasts and climate prediction to be considered.

  8. Using Analysis Increments (AI) to Estimate and Correct Systematic Errors in the Global Forecast System (GFS) Online

    Bhargava, K.; Kalnay, E.; Carton, J.; Yang, F.

    2017-12-01

    Systematic forecast errors, arising from model deficiencies, form a significant portion of the total forecast error in weather prediction models like the Global Forecast System (GFS). While much effort has been expended to improve models, substantial model error remains. The aim here is to (i) estimate the model deficiencies in the GFS that lead to systematic forecast errors, (ii) implement an online correction (i.e., within the model) scheme to correct GFS following the methodology of Danforth et al. [2007] and Danforth and Kalnay [2008, GRL]. Analysis Increments represent the corrections that new observations make on, in this case, the 6-hr forecast in the analysis cycle. Model bias corrections are estimated from the time average of the analysis increments divided by 6-hr, assuming that initial model errors grow linearly and first ignoring the impact of observation bias. During 2012-2016, seasonal means of the 6-hr model bias are generally robust despite changes in model resolution and data assimilation systems, and their broad continental scales explain their insensitivity to model resolution. The daily bias dominates the sub-monthly analysis increments and consists primarily of diurnal and semidiurnal components, also requiring a low dimensional correction. Analysis increments in 2015 and 2016 are reduced over oceans, which is attributed to improvements in the specification of the SSTs. These results encourage application of online correction, as suggested by Danforth and Kalnay, for mean, seasonal and diurnal and semidiurnal model biases in GFS to reduce both systematic and random errors. As the error growth in the short-term is still linear, estimated model bias corrections can be added as a forcing term in the model tendency equation to correct online. Preliminary experiments with GFS, correcting temperature and specific humidity online show reduction in model bias in 6-hr forecast. This approach can then be used to guide and optimize the design of sub

  9. Forecasting the Future: Exploring Evidence for Global Climate Change.

    California Univ., San Diego, La Jolla. Inst. of Marine Resources.

    This curriculum and classroom activity guide considers evidence gathered in answer to questions concerning global environmental change. It describes methods that biologists, chemists, geologists, meteorologists, and physicists use to gather and interpret their findings. The activities and approaches in this guide were developed to meet the skill…

  10. Global Modeling Study of the Bioavailable Atmospheric Iron Supply to the Global Ocean

    Myriokefalitakis, S.; Krol, M. C.; van Noije, T.; Le Sager, P.

    2017-12-01

    Atmospheric deposition of trace constituents acts as a nutrient source to the open ocean and affect marine ecosystem. Dust is known as a major source of nutrients to the global ocean, but only a fraction of these nutrients is released in a bioavailable form that can be assimilated by the marine biota. Iron (Fe) is a key micronutrient that significantly modulates gross primary production in the High-Nutrient-Low-Chlorophyll (HNLC) oceans, where macronutrients like nitrate are abundant, but primary production is limited by Fe scarcity. The global atmospheric Fe cycle is here parameterized in the state-of-the-art global Earth System Model EC-Earth. The model takes into account the primary emissions of both insoluble and soluble Fe forms, associated with mineral dust and combustion aerosols. The impact of atmospheric acidity and organic ligands on mineral dissolution processes, is parameterized based on updated experimental and theoretical findings. Model results are also evaluated against available observations. Overall, the link between the labile Fe atmospheric deposition and atmospheric composition changes is here demonstrated and quantified. This work has been financed by the Marie-Curie H2020-MSCA-IF-2015 grant (ID 705652) ODEON (Online DEposition over OceaNs; modeling the effect of air pollution on ocean bio-geochemistry in an Earth System Model).

  11. Enhancing Community Based Early Warning Systems in Nepal with Flood Forecasting Using Local and Global Models

    Dugar, Sumit; Smith, Paul; Parajuli, Binod; Khanal, Sonu; Brown, Sarah; Gautam, Dilip; Bhandari, Dinanath; Gurung, Gehendra; Shakya, Puja; Kharbuja, RamGopal; Uprety, Madhab

    2017-04-01

    Operationalising effective Flood Early Warning Systems (EWS) in developing countries like Nepal poses numerous challenges, with complex topography and geology, sparse network of river and rainfall gauging stations and diverse socio-economic conditions. Despite these challenges, simple real-time monitoring based EWSs have been in place for the past decade. A key constraint of these simple systems is the very limited lead time for response - as little as 2-3 hours, especially for rivers originating from steep mountainous catchments. Efforts to increase lead time for early warning are focusing on imbedding forecasts into the existing early warning systems. In 2016, the Nepal Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) piloted an operational Probabilistic Flood Forecasting Model in major river basins across Nepal. This comprised a low data approach to forecast water levels, developed jointly through a research/practitioner partnership with Lancaster University and WaterNumbers (UK) and the International NGO Practical Action. Using Data-Based Mechanistic Modelling (DBM) techniques, the model assimilated rainfall and water levels to generate localised hourly flood predictions, which are presented as probabilistic forecasts, increasing lead times from 2-3 hours to 7-8 hours. The Nepal DHM has simultaneously started utilizing forecasts from the Global Flood Awareness System (GLoFAS) that provides streamflow predictions at the global scale based upon distributed hydrological simulations using numerical ensemble weather forecasts from the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). The aforementioned global and local models have already affected the approach to early warning in Nepal, being operational during the 2016 monsoon in the West Rapti basin in Western Nepal. On 24 July 2016, GLoFAS hydrological forecasts for the West Rapti indicated a sharp rise in river discharge above 1500 m3/sec (equivalent to the river warning level at 5 meters) with 53

  12. Signature of ocean warming in global fisheries catch.

    Cheung, William W L; Watson, Reg; Pauly, Daniel

    2013-05-16

    Marine fishes and invertebrates respond to ocean warming through distribution shifts, generally to higher latitudes and deeper waters. Consequently, fisheries should be affected by 'tropicalization' of catch (increasing dominance of warm-water species). However, a signature of such climate-change effects on global fisheries catch has so far not been detected. Here we report such an index, the mean temperature of the catch (MTC), that is calculated from the average inferred temperature preference of exploited species weighted by their annual catch. Our results show that, after accounting for the effects of fishing and large-scale oceanographic variability, global MTC increased at a rate of 0.19 degrees Celsius per decade between 1970 and 2006, and non-tropical MTC increased at a rate of 0.23 degrees Celsius per decade. In tropical areas, MTC increased initially because of the reduction in the proportion of subtropical species catches, but subsequently stabilized as scope for further tropicalization of communities became limited. Changes in MTC in 52 large marine ecosystems, covering the majority of the world's coastal and shelf areas, are significantly and positively related to regional changes in sea surface temperature. This study shows that ocean warming has already affected global fisheries in the past four decades, highlighting the immediate need to develop adaptation plans to minimize the effect of such warming on the economy and food security of coastal communities, particularly in tropical regions.

  13. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models; Third year report

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R. [Applied Research Corp., College Station, TX (United States)

    1994-05-01

    This report was prepared by the Applied Research Corporation (ARC), College Station, Texas, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate studies task. The task supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and is part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work is under the overall direction of the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), US Department of Energy Headquarters, Washington, DC. The scope of the report is to present the results of the third year`s work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain several studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals.

  14. AIRS Impact on Analysis and Forecast of an Extreme Rainfall Event (Indus River Valley 2010) with a Global Data Assimilation and Forecast System

    Reale, O.; Lau, W. K.; Susskind, J.; Rosenberg, R.

    2011-01-01

    A set of data assimilation and forecast experiments are performed with the NASA Global data assimilation and forecast system GEOS-5, to compare the impact of different approaches towards assimilation of Advanced Infrared Spectrometer (AIRS) data on the precipitation analysis and forecast skill. The event chosen is an extreme rainfall episode which occurred in late July 11 2010 in Pakistan, causing massive floods along the Indus River Valley. Results show that the assimilation of quality-controlled AIRS temperature retrievals obtained under partly cloudy conditions produce better precipitation analyses, and substantially better 7-day forecasts, than assimilation of clear-sky radiances. The improvement of precipitation forecast skill up to 7 day is very significant in the tropics, and is caused by an improved representation, attributed to cloudy retrieval assimilation, of two contributing mechanisms: the low-level moisture advection, and the concentration of moisture over the area in the days preceding the precipitation peak.

  15. Petascale Diagnostic Assessment of the Global Portfolio Rainfall Space Missions' Ability to Support Flood Forecasting

    Reed, P. M.; Chaney, N.; Herman, J. D.; Wood, E. F.; Ferringer, M. P.

    2015-12-01

    This research represents a multi-institutional collaboration between Cornell University, The Aerospace Corporation, and Princeton University that has completed a Petascale diagnostic assessment of the current 10 satellite missions providing rainfall observations. Our diagnostic assessment has required four core tasks: (1) formally linking high-resolution astrodynamics design and coordination of space assets with their global hydrological impacts within a Petascale "many-objective" global optimization framework, (2) developing a baseline diagnostic evaluation of a 1-degree resolution global implementation of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model to establish the required satellite observation frequencies and coverage to maintain acceptable global flood forecasts, (3) evaluating the limitations and vulnerabilities of the full suite of current satellite precipitation missions including the recently approved Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, and (4) conceptualizing the next generation spaced-based platforms for water cycle observation. Our team exploited over 100 Million hours of computing access on the 700,000+ core Blue Waters machine to radically advance our ability to discover and visualize key system tradeoffs and sensitivities. This project represents to our knowledge the first attempt to develop a 10,000 member Monte Carlo global hydrologic simulation at one degree resolution that characterizes the uncertain effects of changing the available frequencies of satellite precipitation on drought and flood forecasts. The simulation—optimization components of the work have set a theoretical baseline for the best possible frequencies and coverages for global precipitation given unlimited investment, broad international coordination in reconfiguring existing assets, and new satellite constellation design objectives informed directly by key global hydrologic forecasting requirements. Our research poses a step towards realizing the integrated

  16. The impact of weather and ocean forecasting on hydrocarbon production and pollution management in the Gulf of Mexico

    Kaiser, Mark J.; Pulsipher, Allan G.

    2007-01-01

    Over the past 2 years, the vulnerability of offshore production in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) has been brought to light by extensive damage to oil and gas facilities and pipelines resulting from Hurricanes Ivan, Katrina, and Rita. The occurrences of extreme weather regularly force operators to shut-down production, cease drilling and construction activities, and evacuate personnel. Loop currents and eddies can also impact offshore operations and delay installation and drilling activities and reduce the effectiveness of oil spill response strategies. The purpose of this paper is to describe how weather and ocean forecasting impact production activities and pollution management in the GOM. Physical outcome and decision models in support of production and development activities and oil spill response management are presented, and the expected economic benefits that may result from the implementation of an integrated ocean observation network in the region are summarized. Improved ocean observation systems are expected to reduce the uncertainty of forecasting and to enhance the value of ocean/weather information throughout the Gulf region. The source of benefits and the size of activity from which improved ocean observation benefits may be derived are estimated for energy development and production activities and oil spill response management

  17. Development of Real-time Tsunami Inundation Forecast Using Ocean Bottom Tsunami Networks along the Japan Trench

    Aoi, S.; Yamamoto, N.; Suzuki, W.; Hirata, K.; Nakamura, H.; Kunugi, T.; Kubo, T.; Maeda, T.

    2015-12-01

    In the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, in which huge tsunami claimed a great deal of lives, the initial tsunami forecast based on hypocenter information estimated using seismic data on land were greatly underestimated. From this lesson, NIED is now constructing S-net (Seafloor Observation Network for Earthquakes and Tsunamis along the Japan Trench) which consists of 150 ocean bottom observatories with seismometers and pressure gauges (tsunamimeters) linked by fiber optic cables. To take full advantage of S-net, we develop a new methodology of real-time tsunami inundation forecast using ocean bottom observation data and construct a prototype system that implements the developed forecasting method for the Pacific coast of Chiba prefecture (Sotobo area). We employ a database-based approach because inundation is a strongly non-linear phenomenon and its calculation costs are rather heavy. We prepare tsunami scenario bank in advance, by constructing the possible tsunami sources, and calculating the tsunami waveforms at S-net stations, coastal tsunami heights and tsunami inundation on land. To calculate the inundation for target Sotobo area, we construct the 10-m-mesh precise elevation model with coastal structures. Based on the sensitivities analyses, we construct the tsunami scenario bank that efficiently covers possible tsunami scenarios affecting the Sotobo area. A real-time forecast is carried out by selecting several possible scenarios which can well explain real-time tsunami data observed at S-net from tsunami scenario bank. An advantage of our method is that tsunami inundations are estimated directly from the actual tsunami data without any source information, which may have large estimation errors. In addition to the forecast system, we develop Web services, APIs, and smartphone applications and brush them up through social experiments to provide the real-time tsunami observation and forecast information in easy way to understand toward urging people to evacuate.

  18. ACCURACY ASSESSMENT OF RECENT GLOBAL OCEAN TIDE MODELS AROUND ANTARCTICA

    J. Lei

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Due to the coverage limitation of T/P-series altimeters, the lack of bathymetric data under large ice shelves, and the inaccurate definitions of coastlines and grounding lines, the accuracy of ocean tide models around Antarctica is poorer than those in deep oceans. Using tidal measurements from tide gauges, gravimetric data and GPS records, the accuracy of seven state-of-the-art global ocean tide models (DTU10, EOT11a, GOT4.8, FES2012, FES2014, HAMTIDE12, TPXO8 is assessed, as well as the most widely-used conventional model FES2004. Four regions (Antarctic Peninsula region, Amery ice shelf region, Filchner-Ronne ice shelf region and Ross ice shelf region are separately reported. The standard deviations of eight main constituents between the selected models are large in polar regions, especially under the big ice shelves, suggesting that the uncertainty in these regions remain large. Comparisons with in situ tidal measurements show that the most accurate model is TPXO8, and all models show worst performance in Weddell sea and Filchner-Ronne ice shelf regions. The accuracy of tidal predictions around Antarctica is gradually improving.

  19. Global ocean carbon uptake: magnitude, variability and trends

    R. Wanninkhof

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The globally integrated sea–air anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2 flux from 1990 to 2009 is determined from models and data-based approaches as part of the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP project. Numerical methods include ocean inverse models, atmospheric inverse models, and ocean general circulation models with parameterized biogeochemistry (OBGCMs. The median value of different approaches shows good agreement in average uptake. The best estimate of anthropogenic CO2 uptake for the time period based on a compilation of approaches is −2.0 Pg C yr−1. The interannual variability in the sea–air flux is largely driven by large-scale climate re-organizations and is estimated at 0.2 Pg C yr−1 for the two decades with some systematic differences between approaches. The largest differences between approaches are seen in the decadal trends. The trends range from −0.13 (Pg C yr−1 decade−1 to −0.50 (Pg C yr−1 decade−1 for the two decades under investigation. The OBGCMs and the data-based sea–air CO2 flux estimates show appreciably smaller decadal trends than estimates based on changes in carbon inventory suggesting that methods capable of resolving shorter timescales are showing a slowing of the rate of ocean CO2 uptake. RECCAP model outputs for five decades show similar differences in trends between approaches.

  20. Accuracy Assessment of Recent Global Ocean Tide Models around Antarctica

    Lei, J.; Li, F.; Zhang, S.; Ke, H.; Zhang, Q.; Li, W.

    2017-09-01

    Due to the coverage limitation of T/P-series altimeters, the lack of bathymetric data under large ice shelves, and the inaccurate definitions of coastlines and grounding lines, the accuracy of ocean tide models around Antarctica is poorer than those in deep oceans. Using tidal measurements from tide gauges, gravimetric data and GPS records, the accuracy of seven state-of-the-art global ocean tide models (DTU10, EOT11a, GOT4.8, FES2012, FES2014, HAMTIDE12, TPXO8) is assessed, as well as the most widely-used conventional model FES2004. Four regions (Antarctic Peninsula region, Amery ice shelf region, Filchner-Ronne ice shelf region and Ross ice shelf region) are separately reported. The standard deviations of eight main constituents between the selected models are large in polar regions, especially under the big ice shelves, suggesting that the uncertainty in these regions remain large. Comparisons with in situ tidal measurements show that the most accurate model is TPXO8, and all models show worst performance in Weddell sea and Filchner-Ronne ice shelf regions. The accuracy of tidal predictions around Antarctica is gradually improving.

  1. Developing Global Building Exposure for Disaster Forecasting, Mitigation, and Response

    Huyck, C. K.

    2016-12-01

    Nongovernmental organizations and governments are recognizing the importance of insurance penetration in developing countries to mitigate the tremendous setbacks that follow natural disasters., but to effectively manage risk stakeholders must accurately quantify the built environment. Although there are countless datasets addressing elements of buildings, there are surprisingly few that are directly applicable to assessing vulnerability to natural disasters without skewing the spatial distribution of risk towards known assets. Working with NASA center partners Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University in New York (http://www.ciesin.org), ImageCat have developed a novel method of developing Global Exposure Data (GED) from EO sources. The method has been applied to develop exposure datasets for GFDRR, CAT modelers, and aid in post-earthquake allocation of resources for UNICEF.

  2. Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) is the system used by the Global Forecast System (GFS) model to place observations into a gridded model space for the...

  3. Global abundance of planktonic heterotrophic protists in the deep ocean

    Pernice, Massimo C; Forn, Irene; Gomes, Ana; Lara, Elena; Alonso-Sáez, Laura; Arrieta, Jesus M; del Carmen Garcia, Francisca; Hernando-Morales, Victor; MacKenzie, Roy; Mestre, Mireia; Sintes, Eva; Teira, Eva; Valencia, Joaquin; Varela, Marta M; Vaqué, Dolors; Duarte, Carlos M; Gasol, Josep M; Massana, Ramon

    2015-01-01

    The dark ocean is one of the largest biomes on Earth, with critical roles in organic matter remineralization and global carbon sequestration. Despite its recognized importance, little is known about some key microbial players, such as the community of heterotrophic protists (HP), which are likely the main consumers of prokaryotic biomass. To investigate this microbial component at a global scale, we determined their abundance and biomass in deepwater column samples from the Malaspina 2010 circumnavigation using a combination of epifluorescence microscopy and flow cytometry. HP were ubiquitously found at all depths investigated down to 4000 m. HP abundances decreased with depth, from an average of 72±19 cells ml−1 in mesopelagic waters down to 11±1 cells ml−1 in bathypelagic waters, whereas their total biomass decreased from 280±46 to 50±14 pg C ml−1. The parameters that better explained the variance of HP abundance were depth and prokaryote abundance, and to lesser extent oxygen concentration. The generally good correlation with prokaryotic abundance suggested active grazing of HP on prokaryotes. On a finer scale, the prokaryote:HP abundance ratio varied at a regional scale, and sites with the highest ratios exhibited a larger contribution of fungi molecular signal. Our study is a step forward towards determining the relationship between HP and their environment, unveiling their importance as players in the dark ocean's microbial food web. PMID:25290506

  4. Paradigm change in ocean studies: multi-platform observing and forecasting integrated approach in response to science and society needs

    Tintoré, Joaquín

    2017-04-01

    The last 20 years of ocean research have allowed a description of the state of the large-scale ocean circulation. However, it is also well known that there is no such thing as an ocean state and that the ocean varies a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. More recently, in the last 10 years, new monitoring and modelling technologies have emerged allowing quasi real time observation and forecasting of the ocean at regional and local scales. Theses new technologies are key components of recent observing & forecasting systems being progressively implemented in many regional seas and coastal areas of the world oceans. As a result, new capabilities to characterise the ocean state and more important, its variability at small spatial and temporal scales, exists today in many cases in quasi-real time. Examples of relevance for society can be cited, among others our capabilities to detect and understand long-term climatic changes and also our capabilities to better constrain our forecasting capabilities of the coastal ocean circulation at temporal scales from sub-seasonal to inter-annual and spatial from regional to meso and submesoscale. The Mediterranean Sea is a well-known laboratory ocean where meso and submesoscale features can be ideally observed and studied as shown by the key contributions from projects such as Perseus, CMEMS, Jericonext, among others. The challenge for the next 10 years is the integration of theses technologies and multiplatform observing and forecasting systems to (a) monitor the variability at small scales mesoscale/weeks) in order (b) to resolve the sub-basin/seasonal and inter-annual variability and by this (c) establish the decadal variability, understand the associated biases and correct them. In other words, the new observing systems now allow a major change in our focus of ocean observation, now from small to large scales. Recent studies from SOCIB -www.socib.es- have shown the importance of this new small to large-scale multi

  5. AFSC/ABL: Global Ocean Ecosystems Dynamics (GLOBEC) fish and oceanography data

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Understanding the processes that regulate early marine survival of salmon is a major goal of the Global Ocean Ecosystems Dynamics (GLOBEC) Northeast Pacific (NEP)...

  6. NODC Standard Product: Global ocean temperature and salinity profiles (2 disc set) (NODC Accession 0098058)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This set of CD-ROMs contains global ocean temperature and salinity profiles derived from NODC archive data files. It includes oceanographic station (bottle) data,...

  7. Towards forecasting volcanic eruptions on a global scale

    Hooper, A. J.; Heimisson, E. R.; Gaddes, M.; Bagnardi, M.; Sigmundsson, F.; Spaans, K.; Parks, M.; Gudmundsson, M. T.; Ebmeier, S. K.; Holohan, E. P.; Wright, T. J.; Jonsdottir, K.; Hreinsdottir, S.; Dumont, S.; Ofeigsson, B.; Vogfjord, K. S.

    2016-12-01

    Volcanic eruptions can cause loss of life, damage health, and have huge economic impacts, providing strong societal motivation for predicting eruptive behavior prior to and during eruptions. I will present here recent progress we have made in mechanical modelling with a predictive capacity, and how we are expanding volcano monitoring to a global scale. The eruption of Bardarbunga volcano, Iceland, in 2014-2015 was the largest eruption there for more than 200 years, producing 1.6 km3of lava. Prior to eruption, magma propagated almost 50 km beneath the surface, over a period of two weeks. Key questions to answer in advance of such eruptions are: will it erupt, where, how much and for how long? We developed a model based on magma taking a path that maximizes energy release, which aligns well with the actual direction taken. Our model also predicts eruption in a topographic low, as actually occurred. As magma was withdrawn, the volcano surface sagged downwards. A coupled model of magma flow and piston-like collapse predicts a declining magma flow rate and ground subsidence rate, in accordance with that observed. With such a model, observations can be used to predict the timescale and rates of eruption, even before one starts. The primary data needed to constrain these predictive models are measurements of surface deformation. In Iceland, this is achieved using high accuracy GPS, however, most volcanoes have no ground instrumentation. A recent ESA mission, Sentinel-1, can potentially image deformation at almost all subaerial volcanoes every 6 days, using a technique called interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR). This will allow us to detect early stages of magma migration at any volcano, then task other satellites to acquire data at a higher rate. We are working on a system to process all Sentinel-1 data in near-real time, which is a big data challenge. We have also developed new algorithms that maximize signal extraction from each new acquisition and

  8. A preliminary study of the impact of the ERS 1 C band scatterometer wind data on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts global data assimilation system

    Hoffman, Ross N.

    1993-01-01

    A preliminary assessment of the impact of the ERS 1 scatterometer wind data on the current European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts analysis and forecast system has been carried out. Although the scatterometer data results in changes to the analyses and forecasts, there is no consistent improvement or degradation. Our results are based on comparing analyses and forecasts from assimilation cycles. The two sets of analyses are very similar except for the low level wind fields over the ocean. Impacts on the analyzed wind fields are greater over the southern ocean, where other data are scarce. For the most part the mass field increments are too small to balance the wind increments. The effect of the nonlinear normal mode initialization on the analysis differences is quite small, but we observe that the differences tend to wash out in the subsequent 6-hour forecast. In the Northern Hemisphere, analysis differences are very small, except directly at the scatterometer locations. Forecast comparisons reveal large differences in the Southern Hemisphere after 72 hours. Notable differences in the Northern Hemisphere do not appear until late in the forecast. Overall, however, the Southern Hemisphere impacts are neutral. The experiments described are preliminary in several respects. We expect these data to ultimately prove useful for global data assimilation.

  9. Satellite Imagery Analysis for Automated Global Food Security Forecasting

    Moody, D.; Brumby, S. P.; Chartrand, R.; Keisler, R.; Mathis, M.; Beneke, C. M.; Nicholaeff, D.; Skillman, S.; Warren, M. S.; Poehnelt, J.

    2017-12-01

    The recent computing performance revolution has driven improvements in sensor, communication, and storage technology. Multi-decadal remote sensing datasets at the petabyte scale are now available in commercial clouds, with new satellite constellations generating petabytes/year of daily high-resolution global coverage imagery. Cloud computing and storage, combined with recent advances in machine learning, are enabling understanding of the world at a scale and at a level of detail never before feasible. We present results from an ongoing effort to develop satellite imagery analysis tools that aggregate temporal, spatial, and spectral information and that can scale with the high-rate and dimensionality of imagery being collected. We focus on the problem of monitoring food crop productivity across the Middle East and North Africa, and show how an analysis-ready, multi-sensor data platform enables quick prototyping of satellite imagery analysis algorithms, from land use/land cover classification and natural resource mapping, to yearly and monthly vegetative health change trends at the structural field level.

  10. An Initial Assessment of the Impact of CYGNSS Ocean Surface Wind Assimilation on Navy Global and Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction

    Baker, N. L.; Tsu, J.; Swadley, S. D.

    2017-12-01

    We assess the impact of assimilation of CYclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) ocean surface winds observations into the NAVGEM[i] global and COAMPS®[ii] mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems. Both NAVGEM and COAMPS® used the NRL 4DVar assimilation system NAVDAS-AR[iii]. Long term monitoring of the NAVGEM Forecast Sensitivity Observation Impact (FSOI) indicates that the forecast error reduction for ocean surface wind vectors (ASCAT and WindSat) are significantly larger than for SSMIS wind speed observations. These differences are larger than can be explained by simply two pieces of information (for wind vectors) versus one (wind speed). To help understand these results, we conducted a series of Observing System Experiments (OSEs) to compare the assimilation of ASCAT wind vectors with the equivalent (computed) ASCAT wind speed observations. We found that wind vector assimilation was typically 3 times more effective at reducing the NAVGEM forecast error, with a higher percentage of beneficial observations. These results suggested that 4DVar, in the absence of an additional nonlinear outer loop, has limited ability to modify the analysis wind direction. We examined several strategies for assimilating CYGNSS ocean surface wind speed observations. In the first approach, we assimilated CYGNSS as wind speed observations, following the same methodology used for SSMIS winds. The next two approaches converted CYGNSS wind speed to wind vectors, using NAVGEM sea level pressure fields (following Holton, 1979), and using NAVGEM 10-m wind fields with the AER Variational Analysis Method. Finally, we compared these methods to CYGNSS wind speed assimilation using multiple outer loops with NAVGEM Hybrid 4DVar. Results support the earlier studies suggesting that NAVDAS-AR wind speed assimilation is sub-optimal. We present detailed results from multi-month NAVGEM assimilation runs along with case studies using COAMPS®. Comparisons include the fit of

  11. Spiraling pathways of global deep waters to the surface of the Southern Ocean

    Tamsitt, Veronica; Drake, Henri F.; Morrison, Adele K.; Talley, Lynne D.; Dufour, Carolina O.; Gray, Alison R.; Griffies, Stephen M.; Mazloff, Matthew R.; Sarmiento, Jorge L.; Wang, Jinbo; Weijer, Wilbert

    2017-01-01

    Upwelling of global deep waters to the sea surface in the Southern Ocean closes the global overturning circulation and is fundamentally important for oceanic uptake of carbon and heat, nutrient resupply for sustaining oceanic biological production, and the melt rate of ice shelves. However, the exact pathways and role of topography in Southern Ocean upwelling remain largely unknown. Here we show detailed upwelling pathways in three dimensions, using hydrographic observations and particle trac...

  12. Global forecasts of urban expansion to 2030 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon pools

    Seto, Karen C.; Güneralp, Burak; Hutyra, Lucy R.

    2012-01-01

    Urban land-cover change threatens biodiversity and affects ecosystem productivity through loss of habitat, biomass, and carbon storage. However, despite projections that world urban populations will increase to nearly 5 billion by 2030, little is known about future locations, magnitudes, and rates of urban expansion. Here we develop spatially explicit probabilistic forecasts of global urban land-cover change and explore the direct impacts on biodiversity hotspots and tropical carbon biomass. ...

  13. Ocean Data Interoperability Platform (ODIP): using regional data systems for global ocean research

    Schaap, D.; Thijsse, P.; Glaves, H.

    2017-12-01

    Ocean acidification, loss of coral reefs, sustainable exploitation of the marine environment are just a few of the challenges researchers around the world are currently attempting to understand and address. However, studies of these ecosystem level challenges are impossible unless researchers can discover and re-use the large volumes of interoperable multidisciplinary data that are currently only accessible through regional and global data systems that serve discreet, and often discipline specific, user communities. The plethora of marine data systems currently in existence are also using different standards, technologies and best practices making re-use of the data problematic for those engaged in interdisciplinary marine research. The Ocean Data Interoperability Platform (ODIP) is responding to this growing demand for discoverable, accessible and reusable data by establishing the foundations for a common global framework for marine data management. But creation of such an infrastructure is a major undertaking, and one that needs to be achieved in part by establishing different levels of interoperability across existing regional and global marine e-infrastructures. Workshops organised by ODIP II facilitate dialogue between selected regional and global marine data systems in an effort to identify potential solutions that integrate these marine e-infrastructures. The outcomes of these discussions have formed the basis for a number of prototype development tasks that aim to demonstrate effective sharing of data across multiple data systems, and allow users to access data from more than one system through a single access point. The ODIP II project is currently developing four prototype solutions that are establishing interoperability between selected regional marine data management infrastructures in Europe, the USA, Canada and Australia, and with the global POGO, IODE Ocean Data Portal (ODP) and GEOSS systems. The potential impact of implementing these solutions for

  14. Modeling selective pressures on phytoplankton in the global ocean.

    Jason G Bragg

    Full Text Available Our view of marine microbes is transforming, as culture-independent methods facilitate rapid characterization of microbial diversity. It is difficult to assimilate this information into our understanding of marine microbe ecology and evolution, because their distributions, traits, and genomes are shaped by forces that are complex and dynamic. Here we incorporate diverse forces--physical, biogeochemical, ecological, and mutational--into a global ocean model to study selective pressures on a simple trait in a widely distributed lineage of picophytoplankton: the nitrogen use abilities of Synechococcus and Prochlorococcus cyanobacteria. Some Prochlorococcus ecotypes have lost the ability to use nitrate, whereas their close relatives, marine Synechococcus, typically retain it. We impose mutations for the loss of nitrogen use abilities in modeled picophytoplankton, and ask: in which parts of the ocean are mutants most disadvantaged by losing the ability to use nitrate, and in which parts are they least disadvantaged? Our model predicts that this selective disadvantage is smallest for picophytoplankton that live in tropical regions where Prochlorococcus are abundant in the real ocean. Conversely, the selective disadvantage of losing the ability to use nitrate is larger for modeled picophytoplankton that live at higher latitudes, where Synechococcus are abundant. In regions where we expect Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus populations to cycle seasonally in the real ocean, we find that model ecotypes with seasonal population dynamics similar to Prochlorococcus are less disadvantaged by losing the ability to use nitrate than model ecotypes with seasonal population dynamics similar to Synechococcus. The model predictions for the selective advantage associated with nitrate use are broadly consistent with the distribution of this ability among marine picocyanobacteria, and at finer scales, can provide insights into interactions between temporally varying

  15. Modeling selective pressures on phytoplankton in the global ocean.

    Bragg, Jason G; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie; Jahn, Oliver; Follows, Michael J; Chisholm, Sallie W

    2010-03-10

    Our view of marine microbes is transforming, as culture-independent methods facilitate rapid characterization of microbial diversity. It is difficult to assimilate this information into our understanding of marine microbe ecology and evolution, because their distributions, traits, and genomes are shaped by forces that are complex and dynamic. Here we incorporate diverse forces--physical, biogeochemical, ecological, and mutational--into a global ocean model to study selective pressures on a simple trait in a widely distributed lineage of picophytoplankton: the nitrogen use abilities of Synechococcus and Prochlorococcus cyanobacteria. Some Prochlorococcus ecotypes have lost the ability to use nitrate, whereas their close relatives, marine Synechococcus, typically retain it. We impose mutations for the loss of nitrogen use abilities in modeled picophytoplankton, and ask: in which parts of the ocean are mutants most disadvantaged by losing the ability to use nitrate, and in which parts are they least disadvantaged? Our model predicts that this selective disadvantage is smallest for picophytoplankton that live in tropical regions where Prochlorococcus are abundant in the real ocean. Conversely, the selective disadvantage of losing the ability to use nitrate is larger for modeled picophytoplankton that live at higher latitudes, where Synechococcus are abundant. In regions where we expect Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus populations to cycle seasonally in the real ocean, we find that model ecotypes with seasonal population dynamics similar to Prochlorococcus are less disadvantaged by losing the ability to use nitrate than model ecotypes with seasonal population dynamics similar to Synechococcus. The model predictions for the selective advantage associated with nitrate use are broadly consistent with the distribution of this ability among marine picocyanobacteria, and at finer scales, can provide insights into interactions between temporally varying ocean processes and

  16. Intelligent optimization models based on hard-ridge penalty and RBF for forecasting global solar radiation

    Jiang, He; Dong, Yao; Wang, Jianzhou; Li, Yuqin

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • CS-hard-ridge-RBF and DE-hard-ridge-RBF are proposed to forecast solar radiation. • Pearson and Apriori algorithm are used to analyze correlations between the data. • Hard-ridge penalty is added to reduce the number of nodes in the hidden layer. • CS algorithm and DE algorithm are used to determine the optimal parameters. • Proposed two models have higher forecasting accuracy than RBF and hard-ridge-RBF. - Abstract: Due to the scarcity of equipment and the high costs of maintenance, far fewer observations of solar radiation are made than observations of temperature, precipitation and other weather factors. Therefore, it is increasingly important to study several relevant meteorological factors to accurately forecast solar radiation. For this research, monthly average global solar radiation and 12 meteorological parameters from 1998 to 2010 at four sites in the United States were collected. Pearson correlation coefficients and Apriori association rules were successfully used to analyze correlations between the data, which provided a basis for these relative parameters as input variables. Two effective and innovative methods were developed to forecast monthly average global solar radiation by converting a RBF neural network into a multiple linear regression problem, adding a hard-ridge penalty to reduce the number of nodes in the hidden layer, and applying intelligent optimization algorithms, such as the cuckoo search algorithm (CS) and differential evolution (DE), to determine the optimal center and scale parameters. The experimental results show that the proposed models produce much more accurate forecasts than other models

  17. Rapid global ocean-atmosphere response to Southern Ocean freshening during the last glacial.

    Turney, Chris S M; Jones, Richard T; Phipps, Steven J; Thomas, Zoë; Hogg, Alan; Kershaw, A Peter; Fogwill, Christopher J; Palmer, Jonathan; Bronk Ramsey, Christopher; Adolphi, Florian; Muscheler, Raimund; Hughen, Konrad A; Staff, Richard A; Grosvenor, Mark; Golledge, Nicholas R; Rasmussen, Sune Olander; Hutchinson, David K; Haberle, Simon; Lorrey, Andrew; Boswijk, Gretel; Cooper, Alan

    2017-09-12

    Contrasting Greenland and Antarctic temperatures during the last glacial period (115,000 to 11,650 years ago) are thought to have been driven by imbalances in the rates of formation of North Atlantic and Antarctic Deep Water (the 'bipolar seesaw'). Here we exploit a bidecadally resolved 14 C data set obtained from New Zealand kauri (Agathis australis) to undertake high-precision alignment of key climate data sets spanning iceberg-rafted debris event Heinrich 3 and Greenland Interstadial (GI) 5.1 in the North Atlantic (~30,400 to 28,400 years ago). We observe no divergence between the kauri and Atlantic marine sediment 14 C data sets, implying limited changes in deep water formation. However, a Southern Ocean (Atlantic-sector) iceberg rafted debris event appears to have occurred synchronously with GI-5.1 warming and decreased precipitation over the western equatorial Pacific and Atlantic. An ensemble of transient meltwater simulations shows that Antarctic-sourced salinity anomalies can generate climate changes that are propagated globally via an atmospheric Rossby wave train.A challenge for testing mechanisms of past climate change is the precise correlation of palaeoclimate records. Here, through climate modelling and the alignment of terrestrial, ice and marine 14 C and 10 Be records, the authors show that Southern Ocean freshwater hosing can trigger global change.

  18. The use of analogies in forecasting ecological and societal responses to global warming

    Glantz, M.H.

    1991-01-01

    Due to the limitations of general circulation models, researchers use analogies to look at future climatic change and its effects. Analogies used include the greenhouse, the Altithermal period, regional climates and summertime. Analogical reasoning is a prominent part of general circulation modeling of the atmosphere. Analogies are useful for generating hypotheses and improving understanding, but not as forecasts. The use of an analogy to develop specific policies related to global warming is risky. Historical analogies can provide a first approach to ascertaining the level of societal preparedness for the impacts of a global warming. Each analogy provides additional information about the target problem. 63 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab

  19. The use of analogies in forecasting ecological and societal responses to global warming

    Glantz, M.H. (National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO (USA). Environmental Research and Societal Impacts Group)

    1991-06-01

    Due to the limitations of general circulation models, researchers use analogies to look at future climatic change and its effects. Analogies used include the greenhouse, the Altithermal period, regional climates and summertime. Analogical reasoning is a prominent part of general circulation modeling of the atmosphere. Analogies are useful for generating hypotheses and improving understanding, but not as forecasts. The use of an analogy to develop specific policies related to global warming is risky. Historical analogies can provide a first approach to ascertaining the level of societal preparedness for the impacts of a global warming. Each analogy provides additional information about the target problem. 63 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab.

  20. Forecasting the Global Mean Sea Level, a Continuous-Time State-Space Approach

    Boldrini, Lorenzo

    In this paper we propose a continuous-time, Gaussian, linear, state-space system to model the relation between global mean sea level (GMSL) and the global mean temperature (GMT), with the aim of making long-term projections for the GMSL. We provide a justification for the model specification based......) and the temperature reconstruction from Hansen et al. (2010). We compare the forecasting performance of the proposed specification to the procedures developed in Rahmstorf (2007b) and Vermeer and Rahmstorf (2009). Finally, we compute projections for the sea-level rise conditional on the 21st century SRES temperature...

  1. The implementation of NEMS GFS Aerosol Component (NGAC) Version 1.0 for global dust forecasting at NOAA/NCEP.

    Lu, Cheng-Hsuan; da Silva, Arlindo; Wang, Jun; Moorthi, Shrinivas; Chin, Mian; Colarco, Peter; Tang, Youhua; Bhattacharjee, Partha S; Chen, Shen-Po; Chuang, Hui-Ya; Juang, Hann-Ming Henry; McQueen, Jeffery; Iredell, Mark

    2016-01-01

    The NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) implemented NEMS GFS Aerosol Component (NGAC) for global dust forecasting in collaboration with NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). NGAC Version 1.0 has been providing 5 day dust forecasts at 1°×1° resolution on a global scale, once per day at 00:00 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC), since September 2012. This is the first global system capable of interactive atmosphere aerosol forecasting at NCEP. The implementation of NGAC V1.0 reflects an effective and efficient transitioning of NASA research advances to NCEP operations, paving the way for NCEP to provide global aerosol products serving a wide range of stakeholders as well as to allow the effects of aerosols on weather forecasts and climate prediction to be considered.

  2. Toward Seasonal Forecasting of Global Droughts: Evaluation over USA and Africa

    Wood, Eric; Yuan, Xing; Roundy, Joshua; Sheffield, Justin; Pan, Ming

    2013-04-01

    Extreme hydrologic events in the form of droughts are significant sources of social and economic damage. In the United States according to the National Climatic Data Center, the losses from drought exceed US210 billion during 1980-2011, and account for about 24% of all losses from major weather disasters. Internationally, especially for the developing world, drought has had devastating impacts on local populations through food insecurity and famine. Providing reliable drought forecasts with sufficient early warning will help the governments to move from the management of drought crises to the management of drought risk. After working on drought monitoring and forecasting over the USA for over 10 years, the Princeton land surface hydrology group is now developing a global drought monitoring and forecasting system using a dynamical seasonal climate-hydrologic LSM-model (CHM) approach. Currently there is an active debate on the merits of the CHM-based seasonal hydrologic forecasts as compared to Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP). We use NCEP's operational forecast system, the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) and its previous version CFSv1, to investigate the value of seasonal climate model forecasts by conducting a set of 27-year seasonal hydrologic hindcasts over the USA. Through Bayesian downscaling, climate models have higher squared correlation (R2) and smaller error than ESP for monthly precipitation averaged over major river basins across the USA, and the forecasts conditional on ENSO show further improvements (out to four months) over river basins in the southern USA. All three approaches have plausible predictions of soil moisture drought frequency over central USA out to six months because of strong soil moisture memory, and seasonal climate models provide better results over central and eastern USA. The R2 of drought extent is higher for arid basins and for the forecasts initiated during dry seasons, but significant improvements from CFSv2 occur

  3. kosh Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kpdt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kewr Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kiso Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kpga Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kbkw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. ktcl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. pgwt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kpsp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kbih Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kdnl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kart Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kilm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kpne Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kabi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. ptpn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kblf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. panc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kpbi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kgdv Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kcmx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kdls Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. koaj Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. krhi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kbpk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. khuf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kbpi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. ktrk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kwmc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. katy Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. tjmz Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kdet Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kcxp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kbur Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. krkd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. pawg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kloz Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kcec Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kdec Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. paor Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kavl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kdrt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kstl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kbfi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. khsv Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. pafa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kekn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. tncm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kith Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kgnv Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. ktoi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kgso Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. nstu Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kmgm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. khib Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. pavd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kfar Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kluk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kwwr Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. klse Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. ksts Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. koth Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kbfl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. ksgf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kpkb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. krog Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kbjc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. ksea Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kbwi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kftw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kpuw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kabq Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. ksny Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. khio Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. klaf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kfoe Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. ksmx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kipt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. klch Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kink Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. krut Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kbli Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kaoo Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. klit Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. ktup Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. ktop Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. klax Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kprc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. katl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kmcn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kogb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kama Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. ptkk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kiwa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kavp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kdca Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kbwg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kdfw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kssi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. pahn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. ksrq Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kpvd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kisp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kttd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. pmdy Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kont Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kyng Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kcwa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kflg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. krsw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kmyl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. krbg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kril Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. ksus Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. padq Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kbil Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. krfd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kdug Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. ktix Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kcod Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kslk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kgfl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kguc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kmlu Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kbff Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. ksmn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kdro Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kmce Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. ktpa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kmot Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kcre Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. klws Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kotm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. khqm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kabr Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. klal Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kelp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kecg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. khbg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kpbf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. konp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. pkwa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. ktvf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. paga Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. khks Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kdsm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kpsm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kgrb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kgmu Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. papg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kbgm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. pamc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. klrd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. ksan Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. patk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kowb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. klru Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kfxe Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kjct Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kcrg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. paaq Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kaex Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. klbx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kmia Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kpit Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kcrw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. paen Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kast Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kuin Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kmht Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kcys Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kflo Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. pakn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. pabt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. krdg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. khdn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kjac Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kphx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. The development of radioactivity diffusion model in global ocean

    Nakano, M.; Watanabe, H.; Katagiri, H.

    2000-01-01

    The radioactivity diffusion model in global ocean has been developing in order to assess the long-term behavior of radioactive materials for discharge from nuclear facility. The model system consists of two parts. One is to calculate current velocity; and the other is for particle chasing. Both systems are executed by Macintosh personal computer. A lot of techniques to estimate ocean current velocity were investigated in geophysical field. The robust diagnosis model advocated by Sarmiento and Bryan was applied to build the numerical calculation system for getting the current velocity field in global scale. The latitudinal and longitudinal lattices were 2 degrees each and the number of vertical layer was 15. The movement of radioactive materials by current and diffusion were calculated using the particle chasing system. The above-mentioned current velocity field and the initial particle positions at will were read by the system. The movement of a particle was calculated using the interpolated current data step by step. The diffusion of a particle was calculated by random walk method. The model was verified by using the fallout data from atmospheric nuclear test. Yearly and latitudinal fallout data was adopted from UNSCEAR1977. The calculation result was compared with the observation data that includes total amount and vertical profile of Cs-137 and Pu-239,240 in the North Pacific Ocean. The result of the verification was agreed with the following general knowledge. Though the fallout amount between 40N and 50N was the biggest in the world, the amount in the seawater between 40N and 50N was smaller than that in south of 40N because of horizontal transportation, which carried water from north to south. As for vertical profile, Cs-137 could be accurately calculated except the surface layer. However the observation peak of Pu-239,240 existed deeper than the calculation peak. This model could calculate the vertical profile of Cs-137 because most of Cs exists as dissolved

  2. Knowledge-based modularization and global optimization of artificial neural network models in hydrological forecasting.

    Corzo, Gerald; Solomatine, Dimitri

    2007-05-01

    Natural phenomena are multistationary and are composed of a number of interacting processes, so one single model handling all processes often suffers from inaccuracies. A solution is to partition data in relation to such processes using the available domain knowledge or expert judgment, to train separate models for each of the processes, and to merge them in a modular model (committee). In this paper a problem of water flow forecast in watershed hydrology is considered where the flow process can be presented as consisting of two subprocesses -- base flow and excess flow, so that these two processes can be separated. Several approaches to data separation techniques are studied. Two case studies with different forecast horizons are considered. Parameters of the algorithms responsible for data partitioning are optimized using genetic algorithms and global pattern search. It was found that modularization of ANN models using domain knowledge makes models more accurate, if compared with a global model trained on the whole data set, especially when forecast horizon (and hence the complexity of the modelled processes) is increased.

  3. GLOBEC: Global Ocean Ecosystems Dynamics: A component of the US Global Change Research Program

    1991-01-01

    GLOBEC (GLOBal ocean ECosystems dynamics) is a research initiative proposed by the oceanographic and fisheries communities to address the question of how changes in global environment are expected to affect the abundance and production of animals in the sea. The approach to this problem is to develop a fundamental understanding of the mechanisms that determine both the abundance of key marine animal populations and their variances in space and time. The assumption is that the physical environment is a major contributor to patterns of abundance and production of marine animals, in large part because the planktonic life stages typical of most marine animals are intrinsically at the mercy of the fluid motions of the medium in which they live. Consequently, the authors reason that a logical approach to predicting the potential impact of a globally changing environment is to understand how the physical environment, both directly and indirectly, contributes to animal abundance and its variability in marine ecosystems. The plans for this coordinated study of of the potential impact of global change on ocean ecosystems dynamics are discussed.

  4. Total kinetic energy in four global eddying ocean circulation models and over 5000 current meter records

    Scott, Robert B.; Arbic, Brian K.; Chassignet, Eric P.; Coward, Andrew C.; Maltrud, Mathew; Merryfield, William J.; Srinivasan, Ashwanth; Varghese, Anson

    2010-01-01

    We compare the total kinetic energy (TKE) in four global eddying ocean circulation simulations with a global dataset of over 5000, quality controlled, moored current meter records. At individual mooring sites, there was considerable scatter between

  5. The oceanic cycle and global atmospheric budget of carbonyl sulfide

    Weiss, P.S.

    1994-12-31

    A significant portion of stratospheric air chemistry is influenced by the existence of carbonyl sulfide (COS). This ubiquitous sulfur gas represents a major source of sulfur to the stratosphere where it is converted to sulfuric acid aerosol particles. Stratospheric aerosols are climatically important because they scatter incoming solar radiation back to space and are able to increase the catalytic destruction of ozone through gas phase reactions on particle surfaces. COS is primarily formed at the surface of the earth, in both marine and terrestrial environments, and is strongly linked to natural biological processes. However, many gaps in the understanding of the global COS cycle still exist, which has led to a global atmospheric budget that is out of balance by a factor of two or more, and a lack of understanding of how human activity has affected the cycling of this gas. The goal of this study was to focus on COS in the marine environment by investigating production/destruction mechanisms and recalculating the ocean-atmosphere flux.

  6. A Deep Learning Algorithm of Neural Network for the Parameterization of Typhoon-Ocean Feedback in Typhoon Forecast Models

    Jiang, Guo-Qing; Xu, Jing; Wei, Jun

    2018-04-01

    Two algorithms based on machine learning neural networks are proposed—the shallow learning (S-L) and deep learning (D-L) algorithms—that can potentially be used in atmosphere-only typhoon forecast models to provide flow-dependent typhoon-induced sea surface temperature cooling (SSTC) for improving typhoon predictions. The major challenge of existing SSTC algorithms in forecast models is how to accurately predict SSTC induced by an upcoming typhoon, which requires information not only from historical data but more importantly also from the target typhoon itself. The S-L algorithm composes of a single layer of neurons with mixed atmospheric and oceanic factors. Such a structure is found to be unable to represent correctly the physical typhoon-ocean interaction. It tends to produce an unstable SSTC distribution, for which any perturbations may lead to changes in both SSTC pattern and strength. The D-L algorithm extends the neural network to a 4 × 5 neuron matrix with atmospheric and oceanic factors being separated in different layers of neurons, so that the machine learning can determine the roles of atmospheric and oceanic factors in shaping the SSTC. Therefore, it produces a stable crescent-shaped SSTC distribution, with its large-scale pattern determined mainly by atmospheric factors (e.g., winds) and small-scale features by oceanic factors (e.g., eddies). Sensitivity experiments reveal that the D-L algorithms improve maximum wind intensity errors by 60-70% for four case study simulations, compared to their atmosphere-only model runs.

  7. Examining the value of global seasonal reference evapotranspiration forecasts tosupport FEWS NET's food insecurity outlooks

    Shukla, S.; McEvoy, D.; Hobbins, M.; Husak, G. J.; Huntington, J. L.; Funk, C.; Verdin, J.; Macharia, D.

    2017-12-01

    The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) team provides food insecurity outlooks for several developing countries in Africa, Central Asia, and Central America. Thus far in terms of agroclimatic conditions that influence food insecurity, FEWS NET's primary focus has been on the seasonal precipitation forecasts while not adequately accounting for the atmospheric evaporative demand, which is also directly related to agricultural production and hence food insecurity, and is most often estimated by reference evapotranspiration (ETo). This presentation reports on the development of a new global ETo seasonal reforecast and skill evaluation with a particular emphasis on the potential use of this dataset by the FEWS NET to support food insecurity early warning. The ETo reforecasts span the 1982-2009 period and are calculated following ASCE's formulation of Penman-Monteith method driven by seasonal climate forecasts of monthly mean temperature, humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation from NCEP's CFSv2 and NASA's GEOS-5 models. The skill evaluation using deterministic and probabilistic scores focuses on the December-February (DJF), March-May (MAM), June-August (JJA) and September-November (SON) seasons. The results indicate that ETo forecasts are a promising tool for early warning of drought and food insecurity. The FEWS NET regions with promising level of skill (correlation >0.35 at lead times of 3 months) include Northern Sub-Saharan Africa (DJF, dry season), Central America (DJF, dry season), parts of East Africa (JJA, wet Season), Southern Africa (JJA, dry season), and Central Asia (MAM, wet season). A case study over parts of East Africa for the JJA season shows that, in combination with the precipitation forecasts, ETo forecasts could have provided early warning of recent severe drought events (e.g., 2002, 2004, 2009) that contributed to substantial food insecurity in the region.

  8. Development and validation of a regional coupled forecasting system for S2S forecasts

    Sun, R.; Subramanian, A. C.; Hoteit, I.; Miller, A. J.; Ralph, M.; Cornuelle, B. D.

    2017-12-01

    Accurate and efficient forecasting of oceanic and atmospheric circulation is essential for a wide variety of high-impact societal needs, including: weather extremes; environmental protection and coastal management; management of fisheries, marine conservation; water resources; and renewable energy. Effective forecasting relies on high model fidelity and accurate initialization of the models with observed state of the ocean-atmosphere-land coupled system. A regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the MITGCM ocean model coupled using the ESMF (Earth System Modeling Framework) coupling framework is developed to resolve mesoscale air-sea feedbacks. The regional coupled model allows oceanic mixed layer heat and momentum to interact with the atmospheric boundary layer dynamics at the mesoscale and submesoscale spatiotemporal regimes, thus leading to feedbacks which are otherwise not resolved in coarse resolution global coupled forecasting systems or regional uncoupled forecasting systems. The model is tested in two scenarios in the mesoscale eddy rich Red Sea and Western Indian Ocean region as well as mesoscale eddies and fronts of the California Current System. Recent studies show evidence for air-sea interactions involving the oceanic mesoscale in these two regions which can enhance predictability on sub seasonal timescale. We will present results from this newly developed regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model for forecasts over the Red Sea region as well as the California Current region. The forecasts will be validated against insitu observations in the region as well as reanalysis fields.

  9. Measuring Globalization: Existing Methods and Their Implications for Teaching Global Studies and Forecasting

    Zinkina, Julia; Korotayev, Andrey; Andreev, Aleksey I.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to encourage discussions regarding the existing approaches to globalization measurement (taking mainly the form of indices and rankings) and their shortcomings in terms of applicability to developing Global Studies curricula. Another aim is to propose an outline for the globalization measurement methodology…

  10. Global forecasts of urban expansion to 2030 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon pools.

    Seto, Karen C; Güneralp, Burak; Hutyra, Lucy R

    2012-10-02

    Urban land-cover change threatens biodiversity and affects ecosystem productivity through loss of habitat, biomass, and carbon storage. However, despite projections that world urban populations will increase to nearly 5 billion by 2030, little is known about future locations, magnitudes, and rates of urban expansion. Here we develop spatially explicit probabilistic forecasts of global urban land-cover change and explore the direct impacts on biodiversity hotspots and tropical carbon biomass. If current trends in population density continue and all areas with high probabilities of urban expansion undergo change, then by 2030, urban land cover will increase by 1.2 million km(2), nearly tripling the global urban land area circa 2000. This increase would result in considerable loss of habitats in key biodiversity hotspots, with the highest rates of forecasted urban growth to take place in regions that were relatively undisturbed by urban development in 2000: the Eastern Afromontane, the Guinean Forests of West Africa, and the Western Ghats and Sri Lanka hotspots. Within the pan-tropics, loss in vegetation biomass from areas with high probability of urban expansion is estimated to be 1.38 PgC (0.05 PgC yr(-1)), equal to ∼5% of emissions from tropical deforestation and land-use change. Although urbanization is often considered a local issue, the aggregate global impacts of projected urban expansion will require significant policy changes to affect future growth trajectories to minimize global biodiversity and vegetation carbon losses.

  11. Uncertainties in global radiation time series forecasting using machine learning: The multilayer perceptron case

    Voyant, Cyril; Notton, Gilles; Darras, Christophe; Fouilloy, Alexis; Motte, Fabrice

    2017-01-01

    As global solar radiation forecasting is a very important challenge, several methods are devoted to this goal with different levels of accuracy and confidence. In this study we propose to better understand how the uncertainty is propagated in the context of global radiation time series forecasting using machine learning. Indeed we propose to decompose the error considering four kinds of uncertainties: the error due to the measurement, the variability of time series, the machine learning uncertainty and the error related to the horizon. All these components of the error allow to determinate a global uncertainty generating prediction bands related to the prediction efficiency. We also have defined a reliability index which could be very interesting for the grid manager in order to estimate the validity of predictions. We have experimented this method on a multilayer perceptron which is a popular machine learning technique. We have shown that the global error and its components are essential to quantify in order to estimate the reliability of the model outputs. The described method has been successfully applied to four meteorological stations in Mediterranean area. - Highlights: • Solar irradiation predictions require confidence bands. • There are a lot of kinds of uncertainties to take into account in order to propose prediction bands. • the ranking of different kinds of uncertainties is essential to propose an operational tool for the grid managers.

  12. ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK AND WAVELET DECOMPOSITION IN THE FORECAST OF GLOBAL HORIZONTAL SOLAR RADIATION

    Luiz Albino Teixeira Júnior

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a method (denoted by WD-ANN that combines the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN and the Wavelet Decomposition (WD to generate short-term global horizontal solar radiation forecasting, which is an essential information for evaluating the electrical power generated from the conversion of solar energy into electrical energy. The WD-ANN method consists of two basic steps: firstly, it is performed the decomposition of level p of the time series of interest, generating p + 1 wavelet orthonormal components; secondly, the p + 1 wavelet orthonormal components (generated in the step 1 are inserted simultaneously into an ANN in order to generate short-term forecasting. The results showed that the proposed method (WD-ANN improved substantially the performance over the (traditional ANN method.

  13. Change in ocean subsurface environment to suppress tropical cyclone intensification under global warming

    Huang, Ping; Lin, I. -I; Chou, Chia; Huang, Rong-Hui

    2015-01-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) are hazardous natural disasters. Because TC intensification is significantly controlled by atmosphere and ocean environments, changes in these environments may cause changes in TC intensity. Changes in surface and subsurface ocean conditions can both influence a TC's intensification. Regarding global warming, minimal exploration of the subsurface ocean has been undertaken. Here we investigate future subsurface ocean environment changes projected by 22 state-of-the-art climate models and suggest a suppressive effect of subsurface oceans on the intensification of future TCs. Under global warming, the subsurface vertical temperature profile can be sharpened in important TC regions, which may contribute to a stronger ocean coupling (cooling) effect during the intensification of future TCs. Regarding a TC, future subsurface ocean environments may be more suppressive than the existing subsurface ocean environments. This suppressive effect is not spatially uniform and may be weak in certain local areas. PMID:25982028

  14. Trends in the Indian Ocean Climatology due to anthropogenic induced global warming

    Meyer, AA

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available clearly show that due to global warming the South West Indian Ocean Climatology has been changing and that this changing trend will continue into the future as global warming continues. The impacts of regional oceanic climate change on the regions coastal...

  15. Bioavailable atmospheric phosphorous supply to the global ocean: a 3-D global modeling study

    Myriokefalitakis, Stelios; Nenes, Athanasios; Baker, Alex R.; Mihalopoulos, Nikolaos; Kanakidou, Maria

    2016-12-01

    The atmospheric cycle of phosphorus (P) is parameterized here in a state-of-the-art global 3-D chemistry transport model, taking into account primary emissions of total P (TP) and soluble P (DP) associated with mineral dust, combustion particles from natural and anthropogenic sources, bioaerosols, sea spray and volcanic aerosols. For the present day, global TP emissions are calculated to be roughly 1.33 Tg-P yr-1, with the mineral sources contributing more than 80 % to these emissions. The P solubilization from mineral dust under acidic atmospheric conditions is also parameterized in the model and is calculated to contribute about one-third (0.14 Tg-P yr-1) of the global DP atmospheric source. To our knowledge, a unique aspect of our global study is the explicit modeling of the evolution of phosphorus speciation in the atmosphere. The simulated present-day global annual DP deposition flux is 0.45 Tg-P yr-1 (about 40 % over oceans), showing a strong spatial and temporal variability. Present-day simulations of atmospheric P aerosol concentrations and deposition fluxes are satisfactory compared with available observations, indicating however an underestimate of about 70 % on current knowledge of the sources that drive the P atmospheric cycle. Sensitivity simulations using preindustrial (year 1850) anthropogenic and biomass burning emission scenarios showed a present-day increase of 75 % in the P solubilization flux from mineral dust, i.e., the rate at which P is converted into soluble forms, compared to preindustrial times, due to increasing atmospheric acidity over the last 150 years. Future reductions in air pollutants due to the implementation of air-quality regulations are expected to decrease the P solubilization flux from mineral dust by about 30 % in the year 2100 compared to the present day. Considering, however, that all the P contained in bioaerosols is readily available for uptake by marine organisms, and also accounting for all other DP sources, a total

  16. The causes of alkalinity variations in the global surface ocean

    Fry, Claudia Helen

    2016-01-01

    Human activities have caused the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) to increase by 120 ppmv from pre-industrial times to 2014. The ocean takes up approximately a quarter of the anthropogenic CO2, causing ocean acidification (OA). Therefore it is necessary to study the ocean carbonate system, including alkalinity, to quantify the flux of CO2 into the ocean and understand OA. Since the 1970s, carbonate system measurements have been undertaken which can be analyzed to quantify the...

  17. Forecasting global developments in the basic chemical industry for environmental policy analysis

    Broeren, M.L.M.; Saygin, D.; Patel, M.K.

    2014-01-01

    The chemical sector is the largest industrial energy user, but detailed analysis of its energy use developments lags behind other energy-intensive sectors. A cost-driven forecasting model for basic chemicals production is developed, accounting for regional production costs, demand growth and stock turnover. The model determines the global production capacity placement, implementation of energy-efficient Best Practice Technology (BPT) and global carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions for the period 2010–2030. Subsequently, the effects of energy and climate policies on these parameters are quantified. About 60% of new basic chemical production capacity is projected to be placed in non-OECD regions by 2030 due to low energy prices. While global production increases by 80% between 2010 and 2030, the OECD's production capacity share decreases from 40% to 20% and global emissions increase by 50%. Energy pricing and climate policies are found to reduce 2030 CO 2 emissions by 5–15% relative to the baseline developments by increasing BPT implementation. Maximum BPT implementation results in a 25% reduction. Further emission reductions require measures beyond energy-efficient technologies. The model is useful to estimate general trends related to basic chemicals production, but improved data from the chemical sector is required to expand the analysis to additional technologies and chemicals. - Highlights: • We develop a global cost-driven forecasting model for the basic chemical sector. • We study regional production, energy-efficient technology, emissions and policies. • Between 2010 and 2030, 60% of new chemicals capacity is built in non-OECD regions. • Global CO 2 emissions rise by 50%, but climate policies may limit this to 30–40%. • Measures beyond energy efficiency are needed to prevent increasing CO 2 emissions

  18. Ocean forecasting in terrain-following coordinates: Formulation and skill assessment of the Regional Ocean Modeling System

    Haidvogel, D.B.; Arango, H.; Budgell, W.P.; Cornuelle, B.D.; Curchitser, E.; Di, Lorenzo E.; Fennel, K.; Geyer, W.R.; Hermann, A.J.; Lanerolle, L.; Levin, J.; McWilliams, J.C.; Miller, A.J.; Moore, A.M.; Powell, T.M.; Shchepetkin, A.F.; Sherwood, C.R.; Signell, R.P.; Warner, J.C.; Wilkin, J.

    2008-01-01

    Systematic improvements in algorithmic design of regional ocean circulation models have led to significant enhancement in simulation ability across a wide range of space/time scales and marine system types. As an example, we briefly review the Regional Ocean Modeling System, a member of a general class of three-dimensional, free-surface, terrain-following numerical models. Noteworthy characteristics of the ROMS computational kernel include: consistent temporal averaging of the barotropic mode to guarantee both exact conservation and constancy preservation properties for tracers; redefined barotropic pressure-gradient terms to account for local variations in the density field; vertical interpolation performed using conservative parabolic splines; and higher-order, quasi-monotone advection algorithms. Examples of quantitative skill assessment are shown for a tidally driven estuary, an ice-covered high-latitude sea, a wind- and buoyancy-forced continental shelf, and a mid-latitude ocean basin. The combination of moderate-order spatial approximations, enhanced conservation properties, and quasi-monotone advection produces both more robust and accurate, and less diffusive, solutions than those produced in earlier terrain-following ocean models. Together with advanced methods of data assimilation and novel observing system technologies, these capabilities constitute the necessary ingredients for multi-purpose regional ocean prediction systems. 

  19. On Verifying Currents and Other Features in the Hawaiian Islands Region Using Fully Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System Compared to Global Ocean Model and Ocean Observations

    Jessen, P. G.; Chen, S.

    2014-12-01

    This poster introduces and evaluates features concerning the Hawaii, USA region using the U.S. Navy's fully Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS-OS™) coupled to the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM). It also outlines some challenges in verifying ocean currents in the open ocean. The system is evaluated using in situ ocean data and initial forcing fields from the operational global Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). Verification shows difficulties in modelling downstream currents off the Hawaiian islands (Hawaii's wake). Comparing HYCOM to NCOM current fields show some displacement of small features such as eddies. Generally, there is fair agreement from HYCOM to NCOM in salinity and temperature fields. There is good agreement in SSH fields.

  20. Optimization of an artificial neural network dedicated to the multivariate forecasting of daily global radiation

    Voyant, Cyril; Muselli, Marc; Paoli, Christophe; Nivet, Marie-Laure

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents an application of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) to predict daily solar radiation. We look at the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) network which is the most used of ANNs architectures. In previous studies, we have developed an ad-hoc time series preprocessing and optimized a MLP with endogenous inputs in order to forecast the solar radiation on a horizontal surface. We propose in this paper to study the contribution of exogenous meteorological data (multivariate method) as time series to our optimized MLP and compare with different forecasting methods: a naive forecaster (persistence), ARIMA reference predictor, an ANN with preprocessing using only endogenous inputs (univariate method) and an ANN with preprocessing using endogenous and exogenous inputs. The use of exogenous data generates an nRMSE decrease between 0.5% and 1% for two stations during 2006 and 2007 (Corsica Island, France). The prediction results are also relevant for the concrete case of a tilted PV wall (1.175 kWp). The addition of endogenous and exogenous data allows a 1% decrease of the nRMSE over a 6 months-cloudy period for the power production. While the use of exogenous data shows an interest in winter, endogenous data as inputs on a preprocessed ANN seem sufficient in summer. -- Research highlights: → Use of exogenous data as ANN inputs to forecast horizontal daily global irradiation data. → New methodology allowing to choice the adequate exogenous data - a systematic method comparing endogenous and exogenous data. → Different referenced mathematical predictors allows to conclude about the pertinence of the proposed methodology.

  1. Reconciling surface ocean productivity, export fluxes and sediment composition in a global biogeochemical ocean model

    M. Gehlen

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available This study focuses on an improved representation of the biological soft tissue pump in the global three-dimensional biogeochemical ocean model PISCES. We compare three parameterizations of particle dynamics: (1 the model standard version including two particle size classes, aggregation-disaggregation and prescribed sinking speed; (2 an aggregation-disaggregation model with a particle size spectrum and prognostic sinking speed; (3 a mineral ballast parameterization with no size classes, but prognostic sinking speed. In addition, the model includes a description of surface sediments and organic carbon early diagenesis. Model output is compared to data or data based estimates of ocean productivity, pe-ratios, particle fluxes, surface sediment bulk composition and benthic O2 fluxes. Model results suggest that different processes control POC fluxes at different depths. In the wind mixed layer turbulent particle coagulation appears as key process in controlling pe-ratios. Parameterization (2 yields simulated pe-ratios that compare well to observations. Below the wind mixed layer, POC fluxes are most sensitive to the intensity of zooplankton flux feeding, indicating the importance of zooplankton community composition. All model parameters being kept constant, the capability of the model to reproduce yearly mean POC fluxes below 2000 m and benthic oxygen demand does at first order not dependent on the resolution of the particle size spectrum. Aggregate formation appears essential to initiate an intense biological pump. At great depth the reported close to constant particle fluxes are most likely the result of the combined effect of aggregate formation and mineral ballasting.

  2. Are Global In-Situ Ocean Observations Fit-for-purpose? Applying the Framework for Ocean Observing in the Atlantic.

    Visbeck, M.; Fischer, A. S.; Le Traon, P. Y.; Mowlem, M. C.; Speich, S.; Larkin, K.

    2015-12-01

    There are an increasing number of global, regional and local processes that are in need of integrated ocean information. In the sciences ocean information is needed to support physical ocean and climate studies for example within the World Climate Research Programme and its CLIVAR project, biogeochemical issues as articulated by the GCP, IMBER and SOLAS projects of ICSU-SCOR and Future Earth. This knowledge gets assessed in the area of climate by the IPCC and biodiversity by the IPBES processes. The recently released first World Ocean Assessment focuses more on ecosystem services and there is an expectation that the Sustainable Development Goals and in particular Goal 14 on the Ocean and Seas will generate new demands for integrated ocean observing from Climate to Fish and from Ocean Resources to Safe Navigation and on a healthy, productive and enjoyable ocean in more general terms. In recognition of those increasing needs for integrated ocean information we have recently launched the Horizon 2020 AtlantOS project to promote the transition from a loosely-coordinated set of existing ocean observing activities to a more integrated, more efficient, more sustainable and fit-for-purpose Atlantic Ocean Observing System. AtlantOS takes advantage of the Framework for Ocean observing that provided strategic guidance for the design of the project and its outcome. AtlantOS will advance the requirements and systems design, improving the readiness of observing networks and data systems, and engaging stakeholders around the Atlantic. AtlantOS will bring Atlantic nations together to strengthen their complementary contributions to and benefits from the internationally coordinated Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) and the Blue Planet Initiative of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). AtlantOS will fill gaps of the in-situ observing system networks and will ensure that their data are readily accessible and useable. AtlantOS will demonstrate the utility of

  3. Global Drought Monitoring and Forecasting based on Satellite Data and Land Surface Modeling

    Sheffield, J.; Lobell, D. B.; Wood, E. F.

    2010-12-01

    objective quantification and tracking of their spatial-temporal characteristics. Further we present strategies for merging various sources of information, including bias correction of satellite precipitation and assimilation of remotely sensed soil moisture, which can augment the monitoring in regions where satellite precipitation is most uncertain. Ongoing work is adding a drought forecast component based on a successful implementation over the U.S. and agricultural productivity estimates based on output from crop yield models. The forecast component uses seasonal global climate forecasts from the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS). These are merged with observed climatology in a Bayesian framework to produce ensemble atmospheric forcings that better capture the uncertainties. At the same time, the system bias corrects and downscales the monthly CFS data. We show some initial seasonal (up to 6-month lead) hydrologic forecast results for the African system. Agricultural monitoring is based on the precipitation, temperature and soil moisture from the system to force statistical and process based crop yield models. We demonstrate the feasibility of monitoring major crop types across the world and show a strategy for providing predictions of yields within our drought forecast mode.

  4. Reference evapotranspiration forecasting based on local meteorological and global climate information screened by partial mutual information

    Fang, Wei; Huang, Shengzhi; Huang, Qiang; Huang, Guohe; Meng, Erhao; Luan, Jinkai

    2018-06-01

    In this study, reference evapotranspiration (ET0) forecasting models are developed for the least economically developed regions subject to meteorological data scarcity. Firstly, the partial mutual information (PMI) capable of capturing the linear and nonlinear dependence is investigated regarding its utility to identify relevant predictors and exclude those that are redundant through the comparison with partial linear correlation. An efficient input selection technique is crucial for decreasing model data requirements. Then, the interconnection between global climate indices and regional ET0 is identified. Relevant climatic indices are introduced as additional predictors to comprise information regarding ET0, which ought to be provided by meteorological data unavailable. The case study in the Jing River and Beiluo River basins, China, reveals that PMI outperforms the partial linear correlation in excluding the redundant information, favouring the yield of smaller predictor sets. The teleconnection analysis identifies the correlation between Nino 1 + 2 and regional ET0, indicating influences of ENSO events on the evapotranspiration process in the study area. Furthermore, introducing Nino 1 + 2 as predictors helps to yield more accurate ET0 forecasts. A model performance comparison also shows that non-linear stochastic models (SVR or RF with input selection through PMI) do not always outperform linear models (MLR with inputs screen by linear correlation). However, the former can offer quite comparable performance depending on smaller predictor sets. Therefore, efforts such as screening model inputs through PMI and incorporating global climatic indices interconnected with ET0 can benefit the development of ET0 forecasting models suitable for data-scarce regions.

  5. Global variations in gravity-derived oceanic crustal thickness: Implications on oceanic crustal accretion and hotspot-lithosphere interactions

    Lin, J.; Zhu, J.

    2012-12-01

    We present a new global model of oceanic crustal thickness based on inversion of global oceanic gravity anomaly with constrains from seismic crustal thickness profiles. We first removed from the observed marine free-air gravity anomaly all gravitational effects that can be estimated and removed using independent constraints, including the effects of seafloor topography, marine sediment thickness, and the age-dependent thermal structure of the oceanic lithosphere. We then calculated models of gravity-derived crustal thickness through inversion of the residual mantle Bouguer anomaly using best-fitting gravity-modeling parameters obtained from comparison with seismically determined crustal thickness profiles. Modeling results show that about 5% of the global crustal volume (or 9% of the global oceanic surface area) is associated with model crustal thickness 8.6 km and is interpreted to have been affected by excess magmatism. The percentage of oceanic crustal volume that is associated with thick crustal thickness (>8.6 km) varies greatly among tectonic plates: Pacific (33%), Africa (50%), Antarctic (33%), Australia (30%), South America (34%), Nazca (23%), North America (47%), India (74%), Eurasia (68%), Cocos (20%), Philippine (26%), Scotia (41%), Caribbean (89%), Arabian (82%), and Juan de Fuca (21%). We also found that distribution of thickened oceanic crust (>8.6 km) seems to depend on spreading rate and lithospheric age: (1) On ocean basins younger than 5 Ma, regions of thickened crust are predominantly associated with slow and ultraslow spreading ridges. The relatively strong lithospheric plate at slow and ultraslow ridges might facilitate the loading of large magmatic emplacements on the plate. (2) In contrast, crustal thickness near fast and intermediately fast spreading ridges typically does not exceed 7-8 km. The relatively weak lithosphere at fast and intermediately fast ridges might make it harder for excess magmatism to accrete. We further speculate that

  6. Simulation of global oceanic upper layers forced at the surface by an optimal bulk formulation derived from multi-campaign measurements.

    Garric, G.; Pirani, A.; Belamari, S.; Caniaux, G.

    2006-12-01

    order to improve the air/sea interface for the future MERCATOR global ocean operational system, we have implemented the new bulk formulation developed by METEO-FRANCE (French Meteo office) in the MERCATOR 2 degree global ocean-ice coupled model (ORCA2/LIM). A single bulk formulation for the drag, temperature and moisture exchange coefficients is derived from an extended consistent database gathering 10 years of measurements issued from five experiments dedicated to air-sea fluxes estimates (SEMAPHORE, CATCH, FETCH, EQUALANT99 and POMME) in various oceanic basins (from Northern to equatorial Atlantic). The available database (ALBATROS) cover the widest range of atmospheric and oceanic conditions, from very light (0.3 m/s) to very strong (up to 29 m/s) wind speeds, and from unstable to extremely stable atmospheric boundary layer stratification. We have defined a work strategy to test this new formulation in a global oceanic context, by using this multi- campaign bulk formulation to derive air-sea fluxes from base meteorological variables produces by the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range and Weather Forecast) atmospheric forecast model, in order to get surface boundary conditions for ORCA2/LIM. The simulated oceanic upper layers forced at the surface by the previous air/sea interface are compared to those forced by the optimal bulk formulation. Consecutively with generally weaker transfer coefficient, the latter formulation reduces the cold bias in the equatorial Pacific and increases the too weak summer sea ice extent in Antarctica. Compared to a recent mixed layer depth (MLD) climatology, the optimal bulk formulation reduces also the too deep simulated MLDs. Comparison with in situ temperature and salinity profiles in different areas allowed us to evaluate the impact of changing the air/sea interface in the vertical structure.

  7. Oceans around Southern Africa and regional effects of global change

    Lutjeharms, JRE

    2001-03-01

    Full Text Available In the last few decades, a great deal of work has been carried out on the nature of the oceanic circulation around southern Africa. Attempts have been made to determine regional ocean-atmosphere interactions and the effect of changing sea...

  8. Global Forecasts of Urban Expansion to 2030 and Direct Impacts on Biodiversity and Carbon Pools

    Seto, K. C.; Guneralp, B.; Hutyra, L.

    2012-12-01

    Urban land cover change threatens biodiversity and affects ecosystem productivity through loss of habitat, biomass, and carbon storage. Yet, despite projections that world urban populations will increase to 4.3 billion by 2030, little is known about future locations, magnitudes, and rates of urban expansion. Here we develop the first global probabilistic forecasts of urban land cover change and explore the impacts on biodiversity hotspots and tropical carbon biomass. If current trends in population density continue, then by 2030, urban land cover will expand between 800,000 and 3.3 million km2, representing a doubling to five-fold increase from the global urban land cover in 2000. This would result in considerable loss of habitats in key biodiversity hotspots, including the Guinean forests of West Africa, Tropical Andes, Western Ghats and Sri Lanka. Within the pan-tropics, loss in forest biomass from urban expansion is estimated to be 1.38 PgC (0.05 PgC yr-1), equal to approximately 5% of emissions from tropical land use change. Although urbanization is often considered a local issue, the aggregate global impacts of projected urban expansion will require significant policy changes to affect future growth trajectories to minimize global biodiversity and forest carbon losses.

  9. Forecasting an invasive species’ distribution with global distribution data, local data, and physiological information

    Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Young, Nicholas E.; Talbert, Marian; Talbert, Colin

    2018-01-01

    Understanding invasive species distributions and potential invasions often requires broad‐scale information on the environmental tolerances of the species. Further, resource managers are often faced with knowing these broad‐scale relationships as well as nuanced environmental factors related to their landscape that influence where an invasive species occurs and potentially could occur. Using invasive buffelgrass (Cenchrus ciliaris), we developed global models and local models for Saguaro National Park, Arizona, USA, based on location records and literature on physiological tolerances to environmental factors to investigate whether environmental relationships of a species at a global scale are also important at local scales. In addition to correlative models with five commonly used algorithms, we also developed a model using a priori user‐defined relationships between occurrence and environmental characteristics based on a literature review. All correlative models at both scales performed well based on statistical evaluations. The user‐defined curves closely matched those produced by the correlative models, indicating that the correlative models may be capturing mechanisms driving the distribution of buffelgrass. Given climate projections for the region, both global and local models indicate that conditions at Saguaro National Park may become more suitable for buffelgrass. Combining global and local data with correlative models and physiological information provided a holistic approach to forecasting invasive species distributions.

  10. Global monsoons in the mid-Holocene and oceanic feedback

    Liu, Z.; Kutzbach, J. [Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1225 W. Dayton Street, Madison, WI 53706 (United States); Harrison, S.P. [Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, P.O. Box 100164, 07701 Jena (Germany); Otto-Bliesner, B. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, PO Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 (United States)

    2004-03-01

    The response of the six major summer monsoon systems (the North American monsoon, the northern Africa monsoon, the Asia monsoon, the northern Australasian monsoon, the South America monsoon and the southern Africa monsoon) to mid-Holocene orbital forcing has been investigated using a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (FOAM), with the focus on the distinct roles of the direct insolation forcing and oceanic feedback. The simulation result is also found to compare well with the NCAR CSM. The direct effects of the change in insolation produce an enhancement of the Northern Hemisphere monsoons and a reduction of the Southern Hemisphere monsoons. Ocean feedbacks produce a further enhancement of the northern Africa monsoon and the North American monsoon. However, ocean feedbacks appear to weaken the Asia monsoon, although the overall effect (direct insolation forcing plus ocean feedback) remains a strengthened monsoon. The impact of ocean feedbacks on the South American and southern African monsoons is relatively small, and therefore these regions, especially the South America, experienced a reduced monsoon regime compared to present. However, there is a strong ocean feedback on the northern Australian monsoon that negates the direct effects of orbital changes and results in a strengthening of austral summer monsoon precipitation in this region. A new synthesis is made for mid-Holocene paleoenvironmental records and is compared with the model simulations. Overall, model simulations produce changes in regional climates that are generally consistent with paleoenvironmental observations. (orig.)

  11. Warming up, turning sour, losing breath: ocean biogeochemistry under global change.

    Gruber, Nicolas

    2011-05-28

    In the coming decades and centuries, the ocean's biogeochemical cycles and ecosystems will become increasingly stressed by at least three independent factors. Rising temperatures, ocean acidification and ocean deoxygenation will cause substantial changes in the physical, chemical and biological environment, which will then affect the ocean's biogeochemical cycles and ecosystems in ways that we are only beginning to fathom. Ocean warming will not only affect organisms and biogeochemical cycles directly, but will also increase upper ocean stratification. The changes in the ocean's carbonate chemistry induced by the uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO(2)) (i.e. ocean acidification) will probably affect many organisms and processes, although in ways that are currently not well understood. Ocean deoxygenation, i.e. the loss of dissolved oxygen (O(2)) from the ocean, is bound to occur in a warming and more stratified ocean, causing stress to macro-organisms that critically depend on sufficient levels of oxygen. These three stressors-warming, acidification and deoxygenation-will tend to operate globally, although with distinct regional differences. The impacts of ocean acidification tend to be strongest in the high latitudes, whereas the low-oxygen regions of the low latitudes are most vulnerable to ocean deoxygenation. Specific regions, such as the eastern boundary upwelling systems, will be strongly affected by all three stressors, making them potential hotspots for change. Of additional concern are synergistic effects, such as ocean acidification-induced changes in the type and magnitude of the organic matter exported to the ocean's interior, which then might cause substantial changes in the oxygen concentration there. Ocean warming, acidification and deoxygenation are essentially irreversible on centennial time scales, i.e. once these changes have occurred, it will take centuries for the ocean to recover. With the emission of CO(2) being the primary driver

  12. Towards uncertainty estimates in global operational forecasts of trace gases in the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring System

    Huijnen, V.; Bouarar, I.; Chabrillat, S. H.; Christophe, Y.; Thierno, D.; Karydis, V.; Marecal, V.; Pozzer, A.; Flemming, J.

    2017-12-01

    Operational atmospheric composition analyses and forecasts such as developed in the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) rely on modules describing emissions, chemical conversion, transport and removal processing, as well as data assimilation methods. The CAMS forecasts can be used to drive regional air quality models across the world. Critical analyses of uncertainties in any of these processes are continuously needed to advance the quality of such systems on a global scale, ranging from the surface up to the stratosphere. With regard to the atmospheric chemistry to describe the fate of trace gases, the operational system currently relies on a modified version of the CB05 chemistry scheme for the troposphere combined with the Cariolle scheme to describe stratospheric ozone, as integrated in ECMWF's Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). It is further constrained by assimilation of satellite observations of CO, O3 and NO2. As part of CAMS we have recently developed three fully independent schemes to describe the chemical conversion throughout the atmosphere. These parameterizations originate from parent model codes in MOZART, MOCAGE and a combination of TM5/BASCOE. In this contribution we evaluate the correspondence and elemental differences in the performance of the three schemes in an otherwise identical model configuration (excluding data-assimilation) against a large range of in-situ and satellite-based observations of ozone, CO, VOC's and chlorine-containing trace gases for both troposphere and stratosphere. This analysis aims to provide a measure of model uncertainty in the operational system for tracers that are not, or poorly, constrained by data assimilation. It aims also to provide guidance on the directions for further model improvement with regard to the chemical conversion module.

  13. Global reanalyses over Antarctica and the Southern Ocean: Can they be used prior to 1979?

    Bromwich, D. H.; Nicolas, J. P.

    2017-12-01

    High southern latitudes are a notoriously challenging area for global reanalyses, largely due to the scarcity of conventional observations in these regions. This lack of observational constraint not only reduces the reanalysis model forecast skill, but is also responsible for artifacts in their time series tied to changes in the observing system. For example, the introduction of new satellite observations (e.g., AMSU in 1998) is now a well-documented cause of widespread spurious changes in the reanalysis moisture and temperature fields, which are often exacerbated over Antarctica and the Southern Ocean. This lack of temporal consistency has significantly reduced the reliability of some reanalysis products and their suitability for trend analysis. Century-long reanalysis efforts such as 20CR and ERA-20C, which only assimilate surface pressure observations, have provided ways to achieve greater homogeneity in the observing system through time and (potentially) produce more temporally consistent datasets, particularly across 1979 and the onset of the modern satellite era. However, important issues quickly became apparent in these reanalyses, related in particular to the handling by their data assimilation systems of the near-complete absence of observations poleward of 50°S prior to the 1950s, or to the prescription of ocean boundary conditions (sea ice, SST) prior to 1979. Because of the data scarcity, comparing reanalyses with each other is one of the primary means to assess their reliability. As such, the release of the CERA-20C and ERA5 (partially) by ECMWF in 2017 provides an opportunity to reassess the skill of recent global reanalyses in high southern latitudes and take stock of the recent improvements and remaining challenges, particularly with regard to their use for long-term climate change studies. Our comparison will include both satellite-era comprehensive reanalyses (ERA-Interim, CFSR, MERRA2, JRA-55, and ERA5) and century-long limited reanalyses (20CR

  14. Ocean container transport : an underestimated and critical link in global supply chain performance

    Fransoo, J.C.; Lee, C.Y.

    2010-01-01

    With supply chains distributed across global markets, ocean container transport now is a critical element of any such supply chain. We identify key characteristics of ocean container transport from a supply chain perspective. We find that unlike continental (road) transport, service offerings tend

  15. Sinking of Dense North Atlantic Waters in a Global Ocean Model : Location and Controls

    Katsman, C.A.; Drijfhout, SS; Dijkstra, H. A.; Spall, M. A.

    2018-01-01

    We investigate the characteristics of the sinking of dense waters in the North Atlantic Ocean that constitute the downwelling limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as simulated by two global ocean models: an eddy-permitting model at 1/4° resolution and its coarser 1°

  16. The critical role of ocean container transport in global supply chain performance

    Fransoo, J.C.; Lee, C.Y.

    2013-01-01

    With supply chains distributed across global markets, ocean container transport now is a critical element of any such supply chain. We identify key characteristics of ocean container transport from a supply chain perspective. We find that unlike continental (road) transport, service offerings tend

  17. Visualization and analysis of eddies in a global ocean simulation

    Williams, Sean J [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hecht, Matthew W [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Petersen, Mark [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Strelitz, Richard [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Maltrud, Mathew E [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Ahrens, James P [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hlawitschka, Mario [UC DAVIS; Hamann, Bernd [UC DAVIS

    2010-10-15

    Eddies at a scale of approximately one hundred kilometers have been shown to be surprisingly important to understanding large-scale transport of heat and nutrients in the ocean. Due to difficulties in observing the ocean directly, the behavior of eddies below the surface is not very well understood. To fill this gap, we employ a high-resolution simulation of the ocean developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory. Using large-scale parallel visualization and analysis tools, we produce three-dimensional images of ocean eddies, and also generate a census of eddy distribution and shape averaged over multiple simulation time steps, resulting in a world map of eddy characteristics. As expected from observational studies, our census reveals a higher concentration of eddies at the mid-latitudes than the equator. Our analysis further shows that mid-latitude eddies are thicker, within a range of 1000-2000m, while equatorial eddies are less than 100m thick.

  18. Ocean Circulation and Mixing Relevant to the Global System

    Gordon, Arnold

    1999-01-01

    .... Arlindo's goal is to resolve the circulation and water mass stratification within the Indonesian Seas in order to formulate a thorough description of the source, spreading patterns, inter-ocean...

  19. GFDL CM2.1 Global Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model Water ...

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. GFDL CM2.1 Global Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model Water Hosing Experiment with 1 Sv equivalent of Freshening Control Expt: 100 yrs After Hosing: 300 yrs.

  20. General Introduction: PREVIMER, a French pre-operational coastal ocean forecasting capability.

    Dumas, Franck; Pineau-guillou, Lucia; Lecornu, Fabrice; Le Roux, Jean-francois; Le Squere, Bruno

    2014-01-01

    Pre-operational system PREVIMER provides with coastal observations and forecasts along French coasts: currents, waves, sea levels, temperature, salinity, primary production and turbidity. These marine environmental data come from in situ observations, satellite images, and numerical models. They are centralized and archived in PREVIMER databases, then published on website (real time and historical data), and freely available to users, private companies as well as public administrations. This ...

  1. Accelerated Prediction of the Polar Ice and Global Ocean (APPIGO)

    2014-09-30

    APPIGO) Eric Chassignet Center for Ocean-Atmosphere Prediction Studies (COAPS) Florida State University PO Box 3062840 Tallahassee, FL 32306...PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Florida Atlantic University,Center for Ocean-Atmosphere Prediction Studies (COAPS),PO Box 3062840...Cavalieri, D. J., C. I. Parkinson , P. Gloersen, and H. J. Zwally. 1997. Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice Concentrations from Multichannel Passive-Microwave

  2. Picoheterotroph (Bacteria and Archaea biomass distribution in the global ocean

    M. R. Landry

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available We compiled a database of 39 766 data points consisting of flow cytometric and microscopical measurements of picoheterotroph abundance, including both Bacteria and Archaea. After gridding with 1° spacing, the database covers 1.3% of the ocean surface. There are data covering all ocean basins and depths except the Southern Hemisphere below 350 m or from April until June. The average picoheterotroph biomass is 3.9 ± 3.6 μg C l−1 with a 20-fold decrease between the surface and the deep sea. We estimate a total ocean inventory of about 1.3 × 1029 picoheterotroph cells. Surprisingly, the abundance in the coastal regions is the same as at the same depths in the open ocean. Using an average of published open ocean measurements for the conversion from abundance to carbon biomass of 9.1 fg cell−1, we calculate a picoheterotroph carbon inventory of about 1.2 Pg C. The main source of uncertainty in this inventory is the conversion factor from abundance to biomass. Picoheterotroph biomass is ~2 times higher in the tropics than in the polar oceans. doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.779142

  3. Anomaly transform methods based on total energy and ocean heat content norms for generating ocean dynamic disturbances for ensemble climate forecasts

    Romanova, Vanya; Hense, Andreas

    2017-08-01

    In our study we use the anomaly transform, a special case of ensemble transform method, in which a selected set of initial oceanic anomalies in space, time and variables are defined and orthogonalized. The resulting orthogonal perturbation patterns are designed such that they pick up typical balanced anomaly structures in space and time and between variables. The metric used to set up the eigen problem is taken either as the weighted total energy with its zonal, meridional kinetic and available potential energy terms having equal contributions, or the weighted ocean heat content in which a disturbance is applied only to the initial temperature fields. The choices of a reference state for defining the initial anomalies are such that either perturbations on seasonal timescales and or on interannual timescales are constructed. These project a-priori only the slow modes of the ocean physical processes, such that the disturbances grow mainly in the Western Boundary Currents, in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the El Nino Southern Oscillation regions. An additional set of initial conditions is designed to fit in a least square sense data from global ocean reanalysis. Applying the AT produced sets of disturbances to oceanic initial conditions initialized by observations of the MPIOM-ESM coupled model on T63L47/GR15 resolution, four ensemble and one hind-cast experiments were performed. The weighted total energy norm is used to monitor the amplitudes and rates of the fastest growing error modes. The results showed minor dependence of the instabilities or error growth on the selected metric but considerable change due to the magnitude of the scaling amplitudes of the perturbation patterns. In contrast to similar atmospheric applications, we find an energy conversion from kinetic to available potential energy, which suggests a different source of uncertainty generation in the ocean than in the atmosphere mainly associated with changes in the density field.

  4. Respiration of new and old carbon in the surface ocean: Implications for estimates of global oceanic gross primary productivity

    Carvalho, Matheus C.; Schulz, Kai G.; Eyre, Bradley D.

    2017-06-01

    New respiration (Rnew, of freshly fixated carbon) and old respiration (Rold, of storage carbon) were estimated for different regions of the global surface ocean using published data on simultaneous measurements of the following: (1) primary productivity using 14C (14PP); (2) gross primary productivity (GPP) based on 18O or O2; and (3) net community productivity (NCP) using O2. The ratio Rnew/GPP in 24 h incubations was typically between 0.1 and 0.3 regardless of depth and geographical area, demonstrating that values were almost constant regardless of large variations in temperature (0 to 27°C), irradiance (surface to 100 m deep), nutrients (nutrient-rich and nutrient-poor waters), and community composition (diatoms, flagellates, etc,). As such, between 10 and 30% of primary production in the surface ocean is respired in less than 24 h, and most respiration (between 55 and 75%) was of older carbon. Rnew was most likely associated with autotrophs, with minor contribution from heterotrophic bacteria. Patterns were less clear for Rold. Short 14C incubations are less affected by respiratory losses. Global oceanic GPP is estimated to be between 70 and 145 Gt C yr-1.Plain Language SummaryHere we present a comprehensive coverage of ocean new and old respiration. Our results show that nearly 20% of oceanic gross primary production is consumed in the first 24 h. However, most (about 60%) respiration is of older carbon fixed at least 24 h before its consumption. Rates of new respiration relative to gross primary production were remarkably constant for the entire ocean, which allowed a preliminary estimation of global primary productivity as between 70 and 145 gt C yr-1.

  5. Penetration of UV-visible solar radiation in the global oceans: Insights from ocean color remote sensing

    Lee, Zhongping; Hu, Chuanmin; Shang, Shaoling; Du, Keping; Lewis, Marlon; Arnone, Robert; Brewin, Robert

    2013-09-01

    Penetration of solar radiation in the ocean is determined by the attenuation coefficient (Kd(λ)). Following radiative transfer theory, Kd is a function of angular distribution of incident light and water's absorption and backscattering coefficients. Because these optical products are now generated routinely from satellite measurements, it is logical to evolve the empirical Kd to a semianalytical Kd that is not only spectrally flexible, but also the sun-angle effect is accounted for explicitly. Here, the semianalytical model developed in Lee et al. (2005b) is revised to account for the shift of phase function between molecular and particulate scattering from the short to long wavelengths. Further, using field data collected independently from oligotrophic ocean to coastal waters covering >99% of the Kd range for the global oceans, the semianalytically derived Kd was evaluated and found to agree with measured data within ˜7-26%. The updated processing system was applied to MODIS measurements to reveal the penetration of UVA-visible radiation in the global oceans, where an empirical procedure to correct Raman effect was also included. The results indicated that the penetration of the blue-green radiation for most oceanic waters is ˜30-40% deeper than the commonly used euphotic zone depth; and confirmed that at a depth of 50-70 m there is still ˜10% of the surface UVA radiation (at 360 nm) in most oligotrophic waters. The results suggest a necessity to modify or expand the light attenuation product from satellite ocean-color measurements in order to be more applicable for studies of ocean physics and biogeochemistry.

  6. Forecast and analysis of the ratio of electric energy to terminal energy consumption for global energy internet

    Wang, Wei; Zhong, Ming; Cheng, Ling; Jin, Lu; Shen, Si

    2018-02-01

    In the background of building global energy internet, it has both theoretical and realistic significance for forecasting and analysing the ratio of electric energy to terminal energy consumption. This paper firstly analysed the influencing factors of the ratio of electric energy to terminal energy and then used combination method to forecast and analyse the global proportion of electric energy. And then, construct the cointegration model for the proportion of electric energy by using influence factor such as electricity price index, GDP, economic structure, energy use efficiency and total population level. At last, this paper got prediction map of the proportion of electric energy by using the combination-forecasting model based on multiple linear regression method, trend analysis method, and variance-covariance method. This map describes the development trend of the proportion of electric energy in 2017-2050 and the proportion of electric energy in 2050 was analysed in detail using scenario analysis.

  7. Bacteria in the greenhouse: Modeling the role of oceanic plankton in the global carbon cycle

    Ducklow, H.W.; Fasham, M.J.R.

    1992-01-01

    To plan effectively to deal with the greenhouse effect, a fundamental understanding is needed of the biogeochemical and physical machinery that cycles carbon in the global system; in addition, models are needed of the carbon cycle to project the effects of increasing carbon dioxide. In this chapter, a description is given of efforts to simulate the cycling of carbon and nitrogen in the upper ocean, concentrating on the model's treatment of marine phytoplankton, and what it reveals of their role in the biogeochemical cycling of carbon between the ocean and atmosphere. The focus is on the upper ocean because oceanic uptake appears to regulate the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere

  8. Ocean observing systems support operational forecasts for the timing of Maine's lobster fishery

    Mills, K.; Hernandez, C.; Pershing, A. J.

    2016-02-01

    American lobster supports one of the most valuable fisheries in the United States, with a landed value in 2013 exceeding $460M. Although US lobstermen are free to fish throughout the year, the New England climate, lobster biology and fleet dynamics lead to a strong annual cycle with catch rates rising rapidly in early summer and landings peaking in late summer. When this annual cycle is disrupted, it can impact the supply and ultimately the price of lobsters. During the record warm conditions in 2012, the rise in catch rates occurred three weeks ahead of normal. Combined with higher than normal landings from the spring Canadian fishery, the early and high volume landings in 2012 led to a collapse in price that severely stressed the U. S. fishery, especially in Maine where over 85% of the landings occur. Based on this experience, we have been developing seasonal forecasts of the phenology of Maine lobster landings. Using temperatures at 50m from four NERACOOS buoys in the Gulf of Maine, we can reliably forecast the date when the Maine lobster fishery will `turn on' for the year, with prediction accuracy peaking in April. The high-landings period normally starts in July, and the 2-3 month lead-time provides some advance warning to dealers and processors of when their capacity needs to be ready and to fishermen of potential supply chain and market impacts such as we observed in 2012. We are currently working towards finer-scale regional forecasts along the Maine coast that may include other features that will provide information to help the lobster industry adapt to the rapid changes that are underway in the Gulf of Maine.

  9. Novel lineages of Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus in the global oceans.

    Huang, Sijun; Wilhelm, Steven W; Harvey, H Rodger; Taylor, Karen; Jiao, Nianzhi; Chen, Feng

    2012-02-01

    Picocyanobacteria represented by Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus have an important role in oceanic carbon fixation and nutrient cycling. In this study, we compared the community composition of picocyanobacteria from diverse marine ecosystems ranging from estuary to open oceans, tropical to polar oceans and surface to deep water, based on the sequences of 16S-23S rRNA internal transcribed spacer (ITS). A total of 1339 ITS sequences recovered from 20 samples unveiled diverse and several previously unknown clades of Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus. Six high-light (HL)-adapted Prochlorococcus clades were identified, among which clade HLVI had not been described previously. Prochlorococcus clades HLIII, HLIV and HLV, detected in the Equatorial Pacific samples, could be related to the HNLC clades recently found in the high-nutrient, low-chlorophyll (HNLC), iron-depleted tropical oceans. At least four novel Synechococcus clades (out of six clades in total) in subcluster 5.3 were found in subtropical open oceans and the South China Sea. A niche partitioning with depth was observed in the Synechococcus subcluster 5.3. Members of Synechococcus subcluster 5.2 were dominant in the high-latitude waters (northern Bering Sea and Chukchi Sea), suggesting a possible cold-adaptation of some marine Synechococcus in this subcluster. A distinct shift of the picocyanobacterial community was observed from the Bering Sea to the Chukchi Sea, which reflected the change of water temperature. Our study demonstrates that oceanic systems contain a large pool of diverse picocyanobacteria, and further suggest that new genotypes or ecotypes of picocyanobacteria will continue to emerge, as microbial consortia are explored with advanced sequencing technology.

  10. US GODAE: Global Ocean Prediction with the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM)

    2009-06-01

    example, detailed surface current information derived from HYCOM is summarized by OCENS (Ocean and Coastal ENviromental Sensing, http...Computing Modernization Program at the Naval Oceanographic Office, the Engineer Research and Development Center, and the Army Research Laboratory

  11. Decadal-scale variation in diet forecasts persistently poor breeding under ocean warming in a tropical seabird.

    Tompkins, Emily M; Townsend, Howard M; Anderson, David J

    2017-01-01

    Climate change effects on population dynamics of natural populations are well documented at higher latitudes, where relatively rapid warming illuminates cause-effect relationships, but not in the tropics and especially the marine tropics, where warming has been slow. Here we forecast the indirect effect of ocean warming on a top predator, Nazca boobies in the equatorial Galápagos Islands, where rising water temperature is expected to exceed the upper thermal tolerance of a key prey item in the future, severely reducing its availability within the boobies' foraging envelope. From 1983 to 1997 boobies ate mostly sardines, a densely aggregated, highly nutritious food. From 1997 until the present, flying fish, a lower quality food, replaced sardines. Breeding success under the poor diet fell dramatically, causing the population growth rate to fall below 1, indicating a shrinking population. Population growth may not recover: rapid future warming is predicted around Galápagos, usually exceeding the upper lethal temperature and maximum spawning temperature of sardines within 100 years, displacing them permanently from the boobies' island-constrained foraging range. This provides rare evidence of the effect of ocean warming on a tropical marine vertebrate.

  12. Decadal-scale variation in diet forecasts persistently poor breeding under ocean warming in a tropical seabird.

    Emily M Tompkins

    Full Text Available Climate change effects on population dynamics of natural populations are well documented at higher latitudes, where relatively rapid warming illuminates cause-effect relationships, but not in the tropics and especially the marine tropics, where warming has been slow. Here we forecast the indirect effect of ocean warming on a top predator, Nazca boobies in the equatorial Galápagos Islands, where rising water temperature is expected to exceed the upper thermal tolerance of a key prey item in the future, severely reducing its availability within the boobies' foraging envelope. From 1983 to 1997 boobies ate mostly sardines, a densely aggregated, highly nutritious food. From 1997 until the present, flying fish, a lower quality food, replaced sardines. Breeding success under the poor diet fell dramatically, causing the population growth rate to fall below 1, indicating a shrinking population. Population growth may not recover: rapid future warming is predicted around Galápagos, usually exceeding the upper lethal temperature and maximum spawning temperature of sardines within 100 years, displacing them permanently from the boobies' island-constrained foraging range. This provides rare evidence of the effect of ocean warming on a tropical marine vertebrate.

  13. World Area Forecast System (WAFS)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The World Area Forecast System (WAFS) is a worldwide system by which world area forecast centers provide aeronautical meteorological en-route forecasts in uniform...

  14. Frequency of Tropical Ocean Deep Convection and Global Warming

    Aumann, H. H.; Behrangi, A.; Ruzmaikin, A.

    2017-12-01

    The average of 36 CMIP5 models predicts about 3K of warming and a 4.7% increase in precipitation for the tropical oceans with a doubling of the CO2 by the end of this century. For this scenario we evaluate the increase in the frequency of Deep Convective Clouds (DCC) in the tropical oceans. We select only DCC which reach or penetrate the tropopause in the 15 km AIRS footprint. The evaluation is based on Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) of the current temperatures of the tropical oceans, those predicted by the mean of the CMIP5 models and the PDF of the DCC process. The PDF of the DCC process is derived from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) between the years 2003 and 2016. During this time the variability due Enso years provided a 1 K p-p change in the mean tropical SST. The key parameter is the SST associated with the onset of the DCC process. This parameter shifts only 0.5 K for each K of warming of the oceans. As a result the frequency of DCC is expected to increases by the end of this century by about 50% above the current frequency.

  15. Accuracy Assessment of Global Barotropic Ocean Tide Models

    2014-08-07

    Altimetry, Venice . Cartwright, D. E. (1999), Tides: A Scientific History , Cambridge Univ. Press, New York. Cartwright, D. E., and R. D. Ray (1990), Oceanic...E. Harrison, and D. Stammer, p. 4, ESA Publication WPP-306, Venice , Italy. Book, J. W., H. Perkins, and M. Wimbush (2009), North Adriatic tides

  16. Summer monsoon circulation and precipitation over the tropical Indian Ocean during ENSO in the NCEP climate forecast system

    Chowdary, J. S.; Chaudhari, H. S.; Gnanaseelan, C.; Parekh, Anant; Suryachandra Rao, A.; Sreenivas, P.; Pokhrel, S.; Singh, P.

    2014-04-01

    This study investigates the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections to tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and their relationship with the Indian summer monsoon in the coupled general circulation model climate forecast system (CFS). The model shows good skill in simulating the impact of El Niño over the Indian Oceanic rim during its decay phase (the summer following peak phase of El Niño). Summer surface circulation patterns during the developing phase of El Niño are more influenced by local Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies in the model unlike in observations. Eastern TIO cooling similar to that of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a dominant model feature in summer. This anomalous SST pattern therefore is attributed to the tendency of the model to simulate more frequent IOD events. On the other hand, in the model baroclinic response to the diabatic heating anomalies induced by the El Niño related warm SSTs is weak, resulting in reduced zonal extension of the Rossby wave response. This is mostly due to weak eastern Pacific summer time SST anomalies in the model during the developing phase of El Niño as compared to observations. Both eastern TIO cooling and weak SST warming in El Niño region combined together undermine the ENSO teleconnections to the TIO and south Asia regions. The model is able to capture the spatial patterns of SST, circulation and precipitation well during the decay phase of El Niño over the Indo-western Pacific including the typical spring asymmetric mode and summer basin-wide warming in TIO. The model simulated El Niño decay one or two seasons later, resulting long persistent warm SST and circulation anomalies mainly over the southwest TIO. In response to the late decay of El Niño, Ekman pumping shows two maxima over the southern TIO. In conjunction with this unrealistic Ekman pumping, westward propagating Rossby waves display two peaks, which play key role in the long-persistence of the TIO warming in the model (for more than a

  17. Forecasting Global Horizontal Irradiance Using the LETKF and a Combination of Advected Satellite Images and Sparse Ground Sensors

    Harty, T. M.; Lorenzo, A.; Holmgren, W.; Morzfeld, M.

    2017-12-01

    The irradiance incident on a solar panel is the main factor in determining the power output of that panel. For this reason, accurate global horizontal irradiance (GHI) estimates and forecasts are critical when determining the optimal location for a solar power plant, forecasting utility scale solar power production, or forecasting distributed, behind the meter rooftop solar power production. Satellite images provide a basis for producing the GHI estimates needed to undertake these objectives. The focus of this work is to combine satellite derived GHI estimates with ground sensor measurements and an advection model. The idea is to use accurate but sparsely distributed ground sensors to improve satellite derived GHI estimates which can cover large areas (the size of a city or a region of the United States). We use a Bayesian framework to perform the data assimilation, which enables us to produce irradiance forecasts and associated uncertainties which incorporate both satellite and ground sensor data. Within this framework, we utilize satellite images taken from the GOES-15 geostationary satellite (available every 15-30 minutes) as well as ground data taken from irradiance sensors and rooftop solar arrays (available every 5 minutes). The advection model, driven by wind forecasts from a numerical weather model, simulates cloud motion between measurements. We use the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) to perform the data assimilation. We present preliminary results towards making such a system useful in an operational context. We explain how localization and inflation in the LETKF, perturbations of wind-fields, and random perturbations of the advection model, affect the accuracy of our estimates and forecasts. We present experiments showing the accuracy of our forecasted GHI over forecast-horizons of 15 mins to 1 hr. The limitations of our approach and future improvements are also discussed.

  18. Influence of freshwater input on the skill of decadal forecast of sea ice in the Southern Ocean

    V. Zunz

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Recent studies have investigated the potential link between the freshwater input derived from the melting of the Antarctic ice sheet and the observed recent increase in sea ice extent in the Southern Ocean. In this study, we assess the impact of an additional freshwater flux on the trend in sea ice extent and concentration in simulations with data assimilation, spanning the period 1850–2009, as well as in retrospective forecasts (hindcasts initialised in 1980. In the simulations with data assimilation, the inclusion of an additional freshwater flux that follows an autoregressive process improves the reconstruction of the trend in ice extent and concentration between 1980 and 2009. This is linked to a better efficiency of the data assimilation procedure but can also be due to a better representation of the freshwater cycle in the Southern Ocean. The results of the hindcast simulations show that an adequate initial state, reconstructed thanks to the data assimilation procedure including an additional freshwater flux, can lead to an increase in the sea ice extent spanning several decades that is in agreement with satellite observations. In our hindcast simulations, an increase in sea ice extent is obtained even in the absence of any major change in the freshwater input over the last decades. Therefore, while the additional freshwater flux appears to play a key role in the reconstruction of the evolution of the sea ice in the simulation with data assimilation, it does not seem to be required in the hindcast simulations. The present work thus provides encouraging results for sea ice predictions in the Southern Ocean, as in our simulation the positive trend in ice extent over the last 30 years is largely determined by the state of the system in the late 1970s.

  19. Change in Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model Accuracy with Age of Input Data from the Global Forecast System (GFS)

    2016-09-01

    were downloaded from the University of Wyoming’s weather website (http://www.weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html). An alternative site is the RAOB...Midwest US Amarillo, TX AMA 2016-01-02-12 37.12, –98.66 Dodge City, KS DDC and Lamont, OK LMN 2016-02-10-12 Norman, OK OUN...0-, 24-, 48-, 72-, or 96-h forecast from the same day, 1, 2, 3, or 4 days earlier, respectively. For example, for a 12 Coordinated Universal Time

  20. The ScaLIng Macroweather Model (SLIMM): using scaling to forecast global-scale macroweather from months to decades

    Lovejoy, S.; del Rio Amador, L.; Hébert, R.

    2015-09-01

    On scales of ≈ 10 days (the lifetime of planetary-scale structures), there is a drastic transition from high-frequency weather to low-frequency macroweather. This scale is close to the predictability limits of deterministic atmospheric models; thus, in GCM (general circulation model) macroweather forecasts, the weather is a high-frequency noise. However, neither the GCM noise nor the GCM climate is fully realistic. In this paper we show how simple stochastic models can be developed that use empirical data to force the statistics and climate to be realistic so that even a two-parameter model can perform as well as GCMs for annual global temperature forecasts. The key is to exploit the scaling of the dynamics and the large stochastic memories that we quantify. Since macroweather temporal (but not spatial) intermittency is low, we propose using the simplest model based on fractional Gaussian noise (fGn): the ScaLIng Macroweather Model (SLIMM). SLIMM is based on a stochastic ordinary differential equation, differing from usual linear stochastic models (such as the linear inverse modelling - LIM) in that it is of fractional rather than integer order. Whereas LIM implicitly assumes that there is no low-frequency memory, SLIMM has a huge memory that can be exploited. Although the basic mathematical forecast problem for fGn has been solved, we approach the problem in an original manner, notably using the method of innovations to obtain simpler results on forecast skill and on the size of the effective system memory. A key to successful stochastic forecasts of natural macroweather variability is to first remove the low-frequency anthropogenic component. A previous attempt to use fGn for forecasts had disappointing results because this was not done. We validate our theory using hindcasts of global and Northern Hemisphere temperatures at monthly and annual resolutions. Several nondimensional measures of forecast skill - with no adjustable parameters - show excellent

  1. The Scaling LInear Macroweather model (SLIM): using scaling to forecast global scale macroweather from months to decades

    Lovejoy, S.; del Rio Amador, L.; Hébert, R.

    2015-03-01

    At scales of ≈ 10 days (the lifetime of planetary scale structures), there is a drastic transition from high frequency weather to low frequency macroweather. This scale is close to the predictability limits of deterministic atmospheric models; so that in GCM macroweather forecasts, the weather is a high frequency noise. But neither the GCM noise nor the GCM climate is fully realistic. In this paper we show how simple stochastic models can be developped that use empirical data to force the statistics and climate to be realistic so that even a two parameter model can outperform GCM's for annual global temperature forecasts. The key is to exploit the scaling of the dynamics and the enormous stochastic memories that it implies. Since macroweather intermittency is low, we propose using the simplest model based on fractional Gaussian noise (fGn): the Scaling LInear Macroweather model (SLIM). SLIM is based on a stochastic ordinary differential equations, differing from usual linear stochastic models (such as the Linear Inverse Modelling, LIM) in that it is of fractional rather than integer order. Whereas LIM implicitly assumes there is no low frequency memory, SLIM has a huge memory that can be exploited. Although the basic mathematical forecast problem for fGn has been solved, we approach the problem in an original manner notably using the method of innovations to obtain simpler results on forecast skill and on the size of the effective system memory. A key to successful forecasts of natural macroweather variability is to first remove the low frequency anthropogenic component. A previous attempt to use fGn for forecasts had poor results because this was not done. We validate our theory using hindcasts of global and Northern Hemisphere temperatures at monthly and annual resolutions. Several nondimensional measures of forecast skill - with no adjustable parameters - show excellent agreement with hindcasts and these show some skill even at decadal scales. We also compare

  2. Long range forecasting of summer monsoon rainfall from SST in the central equatorial Indian Ocean

    Sadhuram, Y; Murthy, T.V.R.

    of summer monsoon rainfall from SST in the central equatorial Indian ocean Y. Sadhuram and T. V. Ramana Murthy National Institute of Oceanography, Regional Centre, 176, Lawson's Bay Colony, . Visakhapatnam-530017 ABSTRACT Severalprediction tedmiques have... and droughts associated with strong and weak monsoons greatly influence the economy of the country. Most of the droughts and floods are associated with EI-Nino and La- Nina respectively (Webster andYang3 and krishna Kumar et al\\. The relationship between ENSO...

  3. A Scalable Version of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System Spectral Forecast Model

    Thomas E. Rosmond

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available The Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS includes a state-of-the-art spectral forecast model similar to models run at several major operational numerical weather prediction (NWP centers around the world. The model, developed by the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL in Monterey, California, has run operational at the Fleet Numerical Meteorological and Oceanographic Center (FNMOC since 1982, and most recently is being run on a Cray C90 in a multi-tasked configuration. Typically the multi-tasked code runs on 10 to 15 processors with overall parallel efficiency of about 90%. resolution is T159L30, but other operational and research applications run at significantly lower resolutions. A scalable NOGAPS forecast model has been developed by NRL in anticipation of a FNMOC C90 replacement in about 2001, as well as for current NOGAPS research requirements to run on DOD High-Performance Computing (HPC scalable systems. The model is designed to run with message passing (MPI. Model design criteria include bit reproducibility for different processor numbers and reasonably efficient performance on fully shared memory, distributed memory, and distributed shared memory systems for a wide range of model resolutions. Results for a wide range of processor numbers, model resolutions, and different vendor architectures are presented. Single node performance has been disappointing on RISC based systems, at least compared to vector processor performance. This is a common complaint, and will require careful re-examination of traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP model software design and data organization to fully exploit future scalable architectures.

  4. Validation and Inter-comparison Against Observations of GODAE Ocean View Ocean Prediction Systems

    Xu, J.; Davidson, F. J. M.; Smith, G. C.; Lu, Y.; Hernandez, F.; Regnier, C.; Drevillon, M.; Ryan, A.; Martin, M.; Spindler, T. D.; Brassington, G. B.; Oke, P. R.

    2016-02-01

    For weather forecasts, validation of forecast performance is done at the end user level as well as by the meteorological forecast centers. In the development of Ocean Prediction Capacity, the same level of care for ocean forecast performance and validation is needed. Herein we present results from a validation against observations of 6 Global Ocean Forecast Systems under the GODAE OceanView International Collaboration Network. These systems include the Global Ocean Ice Forecast System (GIOPS) developed by the Government of Canada, two systems PSY3 and PSY4 from the French Mercator-Ocean Ocean Forecasting Group, the FOAM system from UK met office, HYCOM-RTOFS from NOAA/NCEP/NWA of USA, and the Australian Bluelink-OceanMAPS system from the CSIRO, the Australian Meteorological Bureau and the Australian Navy.The observation data used in the comparison are sea surface temperature, sub-surface temperature, sub-surface salinity, sea level anomaly, and sea ice total concentration data. Results of the inter-comparison demonstrate forecast performance limits, strengths and weaknesses of each of the six systems. This work establishes validation protocols and routines by which all new prediction systems developed under the CONCEPTS Collaborative Network will be benchmarked prior to approval for operations. This includes anticipated delivery of CONCEPTS regional prediction systems over the next two years including a pan Canadian 1/12th degree resolution ice ocean prediction system and limited area 1/36th degree resolution prediction systems. The validation approach of comparing forecasts to observations at the time and location of the observation is called Class 4 metrics. It has been adopted by major international ocean prediction centers, and will be recommended to JCOMM-WMO as routine validation approach for operational oceanography worldwide.

  5. Vertical eddy diffusion as a key mechanism for removing perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) from the global surface oceans

    Lohmann, Rainer; Jurado, Elena; Dijkstra, Henk A.; Dachs, Jordi

    2013-01-01

    Here we estimate the importance of vertical eddy diffusion in removing perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) from the surface Ocean and assess its importance as a global sink. Measured water column profiles of PFOA were reproduced by assuming that vertical eddy diffusion in a 3-layer ocean model is the sole cause for the transport of PFOA to depth. The global oceanic sink due to eddy diffusion for PFOA is high, with accumulated removal fluxes over the last 40 years of 660 t, with the Atlantic Ocean accounting for 70% of the global oceanic sink. The global oceans have removed 13% of all PFOA produced to a depth greater than 100 m via vertical eddy diffusion; an additional 4% has been removed via deep water formation. The top 100 m of the surface oceans store another 21% of all PFOA produced (∼1100 t). Highlights: •Eddy diffusion has removed ∼660 t of PFOA from surface oceans over the last 40 years. •Atlantic Ocean accounts for 70% of the global oceanic sink of PFOA. •Vertical eddy diffusion has moved ∼13% of PFOA to oceans deeper than 100 m. •Around 4% of PFOA has been removed via deep water formation. •The top 100 m of global oceans contain ∼21% of historical PFOA production. -- Vertical eddy diffusion is an important removal process for hydrophilic organic pollutants such as PFOA from the surface ocean

  6. Global ocean tide mapping using TOPEX/Poseidon altimetry

    Sanchez, Braulio V.; Cartwright, D. E.; Estes, R. H.; Williamson, R. G.; Colombo, O. L.

    1991-01-01

    The investigation's main goals are to produce accurate tidal maps of the main diurnal, semidiurnal, and long-period tidal components in the world's deep oceans. This will be done by the application of statistical estimation techniques to long time series of altimeter data provided by the TOPEX/POSEIDON mission, with additional information provided by satellite tracking data. In the prelaunch phase, we will use in our simulations and preliminary work data supplied by previous oceanographic missions, such as Seasat and Geosat. These results will be of scientific interest in themselves. The investigation will also be concerned with the estimation of new values, and their uncertainties, for tidal currents and for the physical parameters appearing in the Laplace tidal equations, such as bottom friction coefficients and eddy viscosity coefficients. This will be done by incorporating the altimetry-derived charts of vertical tides as boundary conditions in the integration of those equations. The methodology of the tidal representation will include the use of appropriate series expansions such as ocean-basin normal modes and spherical harmonics. The results of the investigation will be space-determined tidal models of coverage and accuracy superior to that of the present numerical models of the ocean tides, with the concomitant benefits to oceanography and associated disciplinary fields.

  7. The Impact of Ocean Data Assimilation on Seasonal-to-Interannual Forecasts: A Case Study of the 2006 El Nino Event

    Yang, Shu-Chih; Rienecker, Michele; Keppenne, Christian

    2010-01-01

    This study investigates the impact of four different ocean analyses on coupled forecasts of the 2006 El Nino event. Forecasts initialized in June 2006 using ocean analyses from an assimilation that uses flow-dependent background error covariances are compared with those using static error covariances that are not flow dependent. The flow-dependent error covariances reflect the error structures related to the background ENSO instability and are generated by the coupled breeding method. The ocean analyses used in this study result from the assimilation of temperature and salinity, with the salinity data available from Argo floats. Of the analyses, the one using information from the coupled bred vectors (BV) replicates the observed equatorial long wave propagation best and exhibits more warming features leading to the 2006 El Nino event. The forecasts initialized from the BV-based analysis agree best with the observations in terms of the growth of the warm anomaly through two warming phases. This better performance is related to the impact of the salinity analysis on the state evolution in the equatorial thermocline. The early warming is traced back to salinity differences in the upper ocean of the equatorial central Pacific, while the second warming, corresponding to the mature phase, is associated with the effect of the salinity assimilation on the depth of the thermocline in the western equatorial Pacific. The series of forecast experiments conducted here show that the structure of the salinity in the initial conditions is important to the forecasts of the extension of the warm pool and the evolution of the 2006 El Ni o event.

  8. Sea surface temperature and salinity from the Global Ocean Surface Underway Data (GOSUD) from 1980-01-03 to present

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This collection contains the Global Ocean Surface Underway Data (GOSUD) from 1980-01-03 to present as submitted to NOAA/NCEI. The data includes information about sea...

  9. Carbon dioxide from surface underway survey in global oceans from 1968 to 2006 (Version 1.0) (NODC Accession 0040205)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — More than 3 million measurements of surface water partial pressure of CO2 obtained over the global oceans during 1968 to 2006 are listed in the Lamont-Doherty Earth...

  10. Combined constraints on global ocean primary production using observations and models

    Buitenhuis, Erik T.; Hashioka, Taketo; Quéré, Corinne Le

    2013-09-01

    production is at the base of the marine food web and plays a central role for global biogeochemical cycles. Yet global ocean primary production is known to only a factor of 2, with previous estimates ranging from 38 to 65 Pg C yr-1 and no formal uncertainty analysis. Here, we present an improved global ocean biogeochemistry model that includes a mechanistic representation of photosynthesis and a new observational database of net primary production (NPP) in the ocean. We combine the model and observations to constrain particulate NPP in the ocean with statistical metrics. The PlankTOM5.3 model includes a new photosynthesis formulation with a dynamic representation of iron-light colimitation, which leads to a considerable improvement of the interannual variability of surface chlorophyll. The database includes a consistent set of 50,050 measurements of 14C primary production. The model best reproduces observations when global NPP is 58 ± 7 Pg C yr-1, with a most probable value of 56 Pg C yr-1. The most probable value is robust to the model used. The uncertainty represents 95% confidence intervals. It considers all random errors in the model and observations, but not potential biases in the observations. We show that tropical regions (23°S-23°N) contribute half of the global NPP, while NPPs in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres are approximately equal in spite of the larger ocean area in the South.

  11. Clouds in ECMWF's 30 KM Resolution Global Atmospheric Forecast Model (TL639)

    Cahalan, R. F.; Morcrette, J. J.

    1999-01-01

    Global models of the general circulation of the atmosphere resolve a wide range of length scales, and in particular cloud structures extend from planetary scales to the smallest scales resolvable, now down to 30 km in state-of-the-art models. Even the highest resolution models do not resolve small-scale cloud phenomena seen, for example, in Landsat and other high-resolution satellite images of clouds. Unresolved small-scale disturbances often grow into larger ones through non-linear processes that transfer energy upscale. Understanding upscale cascades is of crucial importance in predicting current weather, and in parameterizing cloud-radiative processes that control long term climate. Several movie animations provide examples of the temporal and spatial variation of cloud fields produced in 4-day runs of the forecast model at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in Reading, England, at particular times and locations of simultaneous measurement field campaigns. model resolution is approximately 30 km horizontally (triangular truncation TL639) with 31 vertical levels from surface to stratosphere. Timestep of the model is about 10 minutes, but animation frames are 3 hours apart, at timesteps when the radiation is computed. The animations were prepared from an archive of several 4-day runs at the highest available model resolution, and archived at ECMWF. Cloud, wind and temperature fields in an approximately 1000 km X 1000 km box were retrieved from the archive, then approximately 60 Mb Vis5d files were prepared with the help of Graeme Kelly of ECMWF, and were compressed into MPEG files each less than 3 Mb. We discuss the interaction of clouds and radiation in the model, and compare the variability of cloud liquid as a function of scale to that seen in cloud observations made in intensive field campaigns. Comparison of high-resolution global runs to cloud-resolving models, and to lower resolution climate models is leading to better

  12. A Southern Ocean variability study using the Argo-based Model for Investigation of the Global Ocean (AMIGO)

    Lebedev, Konstantin

    2017-04-01

    The era of satellite observations of the ocean surface that started at the end of the 20th century and the development of the Argo project in the first years of the 21st century, designed to collect information of the upper 2000 m of the ocean using satellites, provides unique opportunities for continuous monitoring of the Global Ocean state. Starting from 2005, measurements with the Argo floats have been performed over the majority of the World Ocean. In November 2007, the Argo program reached coverage of 3000 simultaneously operating floats (one float in a three-degree square) planned during the development of the program. Currently, 4000 Argo floats autonomously profile the upper 2000-m water column of the ocean from Antarctica to Spitsbergen increasing World Ocean temperature and salinity databases by 12000 profiles per month. This makes it possible to solve problems on reconstructing and monitoring the ocean state on an almost real-time basis, study the ocean dynamics, obtain reasonable estimates of the climatic state of the ocean in the last decade and estimate existing intraclimatic trends. We present the newly developed Argo-Based Model for Investigation of the Global Ocean (AMIGO), which consists of a block for variational interpolation of the profiles of drifting Argo floats to a regular grid and a block for model hydrodynamic adjustment of variationally interpolated fields. Such a method makes it possible to obtain a full set of oceanographic characteristics - temperature, salinity, density, and current velocity - using irregularly located Argo measurements (the principle of the variational interpolation technique entails minimization of the misfit between the interpolated fields defined on the regular grid and irregularly distributed data; hence the optimal solution passes as close to the data as possible). The simulations were performed for the entire globe limited in the north by 85.5° N using 1° grid spacing in both longitude and latitude. At the

  13. Global system for hydrological monitoring and forecasting in real time at high resolution

    Ortiz, Enrique; De Michele, Carlo; Todini, Ezio; Cifres, Enrique

    2016-04-01

    This project presented at the EGU 2016 born of solidarity and the need to dignify the most disadvantaged people living in the poorest countries (Africa, South America and Asia, which are continually exposed to changes in the hydrologic cycle suffering events of large floods and/or long periods of droughts. It is also a special year this 2016, Year of Mercy, in which we must engage with the most disadvantaged of our Planet (Gaia) making available to them what we do professionally and scientifically. The project called "Global system for hydrological monitoring and forecasting in real time at high resolution" is Non-Profit and aims to provide at global high resolution (1km2) hydrological monitoring and forecasting in real time and continuously coupling Weather Forecast of Global Circulation Models, such us GFS-0.25° (Deterministic and Ensembles Run) forcing a physically based distributed hydrological model computationally efficient, such as the latest version extended of TOPKAPI model, named TOPKAPI-eXtended. Finally using the MCP approach for the proper use of ensembles for Predictive Uncertainty assessment essentially based on a multiple regression in the Normal space, can be easily extended to use ensembles to represent the local (in time) smaller or larger conditional predictive uncertainty, as a function of the ensemble spread. In this way, each prediction in time accounts for both the predictive uncertainty of the ensemble mean and that of the ensemble spread. To perform a continuous hydrological modeling with TOPKAPI-X model and have hot start of hydrological status of watersheds, the system assimilated products of rainfall and temperature derived from remote sensing, such as product 3B42RT of TRMM NASA and others.The system will be integrated into a Decision Support System (DSS) platform, based on geographical data. The DSS is a web application (For Pc, Tablet/Mobile phone): It does not need installation (all you need is a web browser and an internet

  14. Future habitat suitability for coral reef ecosystems under global warming and ocean acidification

    Couce, Elena M; Ridgwell, Andy J; Hendy, Erica

    2013-01-01

    Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations are placing spatially divergent stresses on the world’s tropical coral reefs through increasing ocean surface temperatures and ocean acidification. We show how these two stressors combine to alter the global habitat suitability for shallow coral reef ecosystems, using statistical Bioclimatic Envelope Models rather than basing projections on any a priori assumptions of physiological tolerances or fixed thresholds. We apply two different modeling approaches...

  15. Sensitivity of global ocean biogeochemical dynamics to ecosystem structure in a future climate

    Manizza, Manfredi; Buitenhuis, Erik T.; Le Quéré, Corinne

    2010-07-01

    Terrestrial and oceanic ecosystem components of the Earth System models (ESMs) are key to predict the future behavior of the global carbon cycle. Ocean ecosystem models represent low complexity compared to terrestrial ecosystem models. In this study we use two ocean biogeochemical models based on the explicit representation of multiple planktonic functional types. We impose to the models the same future physical perturbation and compare the response of ecosystem dynamics, export production (EP) and ocean carbon uptake (OCU) to the same physical changes. Models comparison shows that: (1) EP changes directly translate into changes of OCU on decadal time scale, (2) the representation of ecosystem structure plays a pivotal role at linking OCU and EP, (3) OCU is highly sensitive to representation of ecosystem in the Equatorial Pacific and Southern Oceans.

  16. Predicting Typhoon Induced Storm Surges Using the Operational Ocean Forecast System

    Sung Hyup You

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This study was performed to compare storm surges simulated by the operational storm surges/tide forecast system (STORM : Storm surges/Tide Operational Model of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA with observations from 30 coastal tidal stations during nine typhoons that occurred between 2005 and 2007. The results (bias showed that for cases of overestimation (or underestimation, storm surges tended to be overestimated (as well as underestimated at all coastal stations. The maximum positive bias was approximately 6.92 cm for Typhoon Ewiniar (2006, while the maximum negative bias was approximately -12.06 cm for Typhoon Khanun (2005. The maximum and minimum root mean square errors (RMSEs were 14.61 and 6.78 cm, which occurred for Typhoons Khanun (2005 and Usagi (2007, respectively. For all nine typhoons, total averaged RMSE was approximately 10.2 cm. Large differences between modeled and observed storm surges occurred in two cases. In the first, a very weak typhoon, such as Typhoon Khanun (2005, caused low storm surges. In the other, exemplified by Typhoon Nari (2007, there were errors in the predicted typhoon strength used as input data for the storm surge model.

  17. A Bayesian modelling method for post-processing daily sub-seasonal to seasonal rainfall forecasts from global climate models and evaluation for 12 Australian catchments

    A. Schepen

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall forecasts are an integral part of hydrological forecasting systems at sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales. In seasonal forecasting, global climate models (GCMs are now the go-to source for rainfall forecasts. For hydrological applications however, GCM forecasts are often biased and unreliable in uncertainty spread, and calibration is therefore required before use. There are sophisticated statistical techniques for calibrating monthly and seasonal aggregations of the forecasts. However, calibration of seasonal forecasts at the daily time step typically uses very simple statistical methods or climate analogue methods. These methods generally lack the sophistication to achieve unbiased, reliable and coherent forecasts of daily amounts and seasonal accumulated totals. In this study, we propose and evaluate a Rainfall Post-Processing method for Seasonal forecasts (RPP-S, which is based on the Bayesian joint probability modelling approach for calibrating daily forecasts and the Schaake Shuffle for connecting the daily ensemble members of different lead times. We apply the method to post-process ACCESS-S forecasts for 12 perennial and ephemeral catchments across Australia and for 12 initialisation dates. RPP-S significantly reduces bias in raw forecasts and improves both skill and reliability. RPP-S forecasts are also more skilful and reliable than forecasts derived from ACCESS-S forecasts that have been post-processed using quantile mapping, especially for monthly and seasonal accumulations. Several opportunities to improve the robustness and skill of RPP-S are identified. The new RPP-S post-processed forecasts will be used in ensemble sub-seasonal to seasonal streamflow applications.

  18. A Bayesian modelling method for post-processing daily sub-seasonal to seasonal rainfall forecasts from global climate models and evaluation for 12 Australian catchments

    Schepen, Andrew; Zhao, Tongtiegang; Wang, Quan J.; Robertson, David E.

    2018-03-01

    Rainfall forecasts are an integral part of hydrological forecasting systems at sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales. In seasonal forecasting, global climate models (GCMs) are now the go-to source for rainfall forecasts. For hydrological applications however, GCM forecasts are often biased and unreliable in uncertainty spread, and calibration is therefore required before use. There are sophisticated statistical techniques for calibrating monthly and seasonal aggregations of the forecasts. However, calibration of seasonal forecasts at the daily time step typically uses very simple statistical methods or climate analogue methods. These methods generally lack the sophistication to achieve unbiased, reliable and coherent forecasts of daily amounts and seasonal accumulated totals. In this study, we propose and evaluate a Rainfall Post-Processing method for Seasonal forecasts (RPP-S), which is based on the Bayesian joint probability modelling approach for calibrating daily forecasts and the Schaake Shuffle for connecting the daily ensemble members of different lead times. We apply the method to post-process ACCESS-S forecasts for 12 perennial and ephemeral catchments across Australia and for 12 initialisation dates. RPP-S significantly reduces bias in raw forecasts and improves both skill and reliability. RPP-S forecasts are also more skilful and reliable than forecasts derived from ACCESS-S forecasts that have been post-processed using quantile mapping, especially for monthly and seasonal accumulations. Several opportunities to improve the robustness and skill of RPP-S are identified. The new RPP-S post-processed forecasts will be used in ensemble sub-seasonal to seasonal streamflow applications.

  19. Retrieving Temperature Anomaly in the Global Subsurface and Deeper Ocean From Satellite Observations

    Su, Hua; Li, Wene; Yan, Xiao-Hai

    2018-01-01

    Retrieving the subsurface and deeper ocean (SDO) dynamic parameters from satellite observations is crucial for effectively understanding ocean interior anomalies and dynamic processes, but it is challenging to accurately estimate the subsurface thermal structure over the global scale from sea surface parameters. This study proposes a new approach based on Random Forest (RF) machine learning to retrieve subsurface temperature anomaly (STA) in the global ocean from multisource satellite observations including sea surface height anomaly (SSHA), sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA), sea surface salinity anomaly (SSSA), and sea surface wind anomaly (SSWA) via in situ Argo data for RF training and testing. RF machine-learning approach can accurately retrieve the STA in the global ocean from satellite observations of sea surface parameters (SSHA, SSTA, SSSA, SSWA). The Argo STA data were used to validate the accuracy and reliability of the results from the RF model. The results indicated that SSHA, SSTA, SSSA, and SSWA together are useful parameters for detecting SDO thermal information and obtaining accurate STA estimations. The proposed method also outperformed support vector regression (SVR) in global STA estimation. It will be a useful technique for studying SDO thermal variability and its role in global climate system from global-scale satellite observations.

  20. An evaluation of the Canadian global meteorological ensemble prediction system for short-term hydrological forecasting

    F. Anctil

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Hydrological forecasting consists in the assessment of future streamflow. Current deterministic forecasts do not give any information concerning the uncertainty, which might be limiting in a decision-making process. Ensemble forecasts are expected to fill this gap.

    In July 2007, the Meteorological Service of Canada has improved its ensemble prediction system, which has been operational since 1998. It uses the GEM model to generate a 20-member ensemble on a 100 km grid, at mid-latitudes. This improved system is used for the first time for hydrological ensemble predictions. Five watersheds in Quebec (Canada are studied: Chaudière, Châteauguay, Du Nord, Kénogami and Du Lièvre. An interesting 17-day rainfall event has been selected in October 2007. Forecasts are produced in a 3 h time step for a 3-day forecast horizon. The deterministic forecast is also available and it is compared with the ensemble ones. In order to correct the bias of the ensemble, an updating procedure has been applied to the output data. Results showed that ensemble forecasts are more skilful than the deterministic ones, as measured by the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS, especially for 72 h forecasts. However, the hydrological ensemble forecasts are under dispersed: a situation that improves with the increasing length of the prediction horizons. We conjecture that this is due in part to the fact that uncertainty in the initial conditions of the hydrological model is not taken into account.

  1. Global Ocean Circulation in Thermohaline Coordinates and Small-scale and Mesoscale mixing: An Inverse Estimate.

    Groeskamp, S.; Zika, J. D.; McDougall, T. J.; Sloyan, B.

    2016-02-01

    I will present results of a new inverse technique that infers small-scale turbulent diffusivities and mesoscale eddy diffusivities from an ocean climatology of Salinity (S) and Temperature (T) in combination with surface freshwater and heat fluxes.First, the ocean circulation is represented in (S,T) coordinates, by the diathermohaline streamfunction. Framing the ocean circulation in (S,T) coordinates, isolates the component of the circulation that is directly related to water-mass transformation.Because water-mass transformation is directly related to fluxes of salt and heat, this framework allows for the formulation of an inverse method in which the diathermohaline streamfunction is balanced with known air-sea forcing and unknown mixing. When applying this inverse method to observations, we obtain observationally based estimates for both the streamfunction and the mixing. The results reveal new information about the component of the global ocean circulation due to water-mass transformation and its relation to surface freshwater and heat fluxes and small-scale and mesoscale mixing. The results provide global constraints on spatially varying patterns of diffusivities, in order to obtain a realistic overturning circulation. We find that mesoscale isopycnal mixing is much smaller than expected. These results are important for our understanding of the relation between global ocean circulation and mixing and may lead to improved parameterisations in numerical ocean models.

  2. Mapping Global Ocean Surface Albedo from Satellite Observations: Models, Algorithms, and Datasets

    Li, X.; Fan, X.; Yan, H.; Li, A.; Wang, M.; Qu, Y.

    2018-04-01

    Ocean surface albedo (OSA) is one of the important parameters in surface radiation budget (SRB). It is usually considered as a controlling factor of the heat exchange among the atmosphere and ocean. The temporal and spatial dynamics of OSA determine the energy absorption of upper level ocean water, and have influences on the oceanic currents, atmospheric circulations, and transportation of material and energy of hydrosphere. Therefore, various parameterizations and models have been developed for describing the dynamics of OSA. However, it has been demonstrated that the currently available OSA datasets cannot full fill the requirement of global climate change studies. In this study, we present a literature review on mapping global OSA from satellite observations. The models (parameterizations, the coupled ocean-atmosphere radiative transfer (COART), and the three component ocean water albedo (TCOWA)), algorithms (the estimation method based on reanalysis data, and the direct-estimation algorithm), and datasets (the cloud, albedo and radiation (CLARA) surface albedo product, dataset derived by the TCOWA model, and the global land surface satellite (GLASS) phase-2 surface broadband albedo product) of OSA have been discussed, separately.

  3. Insights into global diatom distribution and diversity in the world’s ocean

    Malviya, Shruti; Scalco, Eleonora; Audic, Sté phane; Vincent, Flora; Veluchamy, Alaguraj; Poulain, Julie; Wincker, Patrick; Iudicone, Daniele; de Vargas, Colomban; Bittner, Lucie; Zingone, Adriana; Bowler, Chris

    2016-01-01

    Diatoms (Bacillariophyta) constitute one of the most diverse and ecologically important groups of phytoplankton. They are considered to be particularly important in nutrient-rich coastal ecosystems and at high latitudes, but considerably less so in the oligotrophic open ocean. The Tara Oceans circumnavigation collected samples from a wide range of oceanic regions using a standardized sampling procedure. Here, a total of ∼12 million diatom V9-18S ribosomal DNA (rDNA) ribotypes, derived from 293 sizefractionated plankton communities collected at 46 sampling sites across the global ocean euphotic zone, have been analyzed to explore diatom global diversity and community composition. We provide a new estimate of diversity of marine planktonic diatoms at 4,748 operational taxonomic units (OTUs). Based on the total assigned ribotypes, Chaetoceros was the most abundant and diverse genus, followed by Fragilariopsis, Thalassiosira, and Corethron. We found only a few cosmopolitan ribotypes displaying an even distribution across stations and high abundance, many of which could not be assigned with confidence to any known genus. Three distinct communities from South Pacific, Mediterranean, and Southern Ocean waters were identified that share a substantial percentage of ribotypes within them. Sudden drops in diversity were observed at Cape Agulhas, which separates the Indian and Atlantic Oceans, and across the Drake Passage between the Atlantic and Southern Oceans, indicating the importance of these ocean circulation choke points in constraining diatom distribution and diversity. We also observed high diatom diversity in the open ocean, suggesting that diatoms may be more relevant in these oceanic systems than generally considered.

  4. Insights into global diatom distribution and diversity in the world’s ocean

    Malviya, Shruti

    2016-03-01

    Diatoms (Bacillariophyta) constitute one of the most diverse and ecologically important groups of phytoplankton. They are considered to be particularly important in nutrient-rich coastal ecosystems and at high latitudes, but considerably less so in the oligotrophic open ocean. The Tara Oceans circumnavigation collected samples from a wide range of oceanic regions using a standardized sampling procedure. Here, a total of ∼12 million diatom V9-18S ribosomal DNA (rDNA) ribotypes, derived from 293 sizefractionated plankton communities collected at 46 sampling sites across the global ocean euphotic zone, have been analyzed to explore diatom global diversity and community composition. We provide a new estimate of diversity of marine planktonic diatoms at 4,748 operational taxonomic units (OTUs). Based on the total assigned ribotypes, Chaetoceros was the most abundant and diverse genus, followed by Fragilariopsis, Thalassiosira, and Corethron. We found only a few cosmopolitan ribotypes displaying an even distribution across stations and high abundance, many of which could not be assigned with confidence to any known genus. Three distinct communities from South Pacific, Mediterranean, and Southern Ocean waters were identified that share a substantial percentage of ribotypes within them. Sudden drops in diversity were observed at Cape Agulhas, which separates the Indian and Atlantic Oceans, and across the Drake Passage between the Atlantic and Southern Oceans, indicating the importance of these ocean circulation choke points in constraining diatom distribution and diversity. We also observed high diatom diversity in the open ocean, suggesting that diatoms may be more relevant in these oceanic systems than generally considered.

  5. The role of clouds and oceans in global greenhouse warming. Final report

    Hoffert, M.I.

    1996-10-01

    This research focuses on assessing connections between anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and global climatic change. it has been supported since the early 1990s in part by the DOE ``Quantitative Links`` Program (QLP). A three-year effort was originally proposed to the QLP to investigate effects f global cloudiness on global climate and its implications for cloud feedback; and to continue the development and application of climate/ocean models, with emphasis on coupled effects of greenhouse warming and feedbacks by clouds and oceans. It is well-known that cloud and ocean processes are major sources of uncertainty in the ability to predict climatic change from humankind`s greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions. And it has always been the objective to develop timely and useful analytical tools for addressing real world policy issues stemming from anthropogenic climate change.

  6. Evidence of a global magma ocean in Io's interior.

    Khurana, Krishan K; Jia, Xianzhe; Kivelson, Margaret G; Nimmo, Francis; Schubert, Gerald; Russell, Christopher T

    2011-06-03

    Extensive volcanism and high-temperature lavas hint at a global magma reservoir in Io, but no direct evidence has been available. We exploited Jupiter's rotating magnetic field as a sounding signal and show that the magnetometer data collected by the Galileo spacecraft near Io provide evidence of electromagnetic induction from a global conducting layer. We demonstrate that a completely solid mantle provides insufficient response to explain the magnetometer observations, but a global subsurface magma layer with a thickness of over 50 kilometers and a rock melt fraction of 20% or more is fully consistent with the observations. We also place a stronger upper limit of about 110 nanoteslas (surface equatorial field) on the dynamo dipolar field generated inside Io.

  7. Spiraling pathways of global deep waters to the surface of the Southern Ocean.

    Tamsitt, Veronica; Drake, Henri F; Morrison, Adele K; Talley, Lynne D; Dufour, Carolina O; Gray, Alison R; Griffies, Stephen M; Mazloff, Matthew R; Sarmiento, Jorge L; Wang, Jinbo; Weijer, Wilbert

    2017-08-02

    Upwelling of global deep waters to the sea surface in the Southern Ocean closes the global overturning circulation and is fundamentally important for oceanic uptake of carbon and heat, nutrient resupply for sustaining oceanic biological production, and the melt rate of ice shelves. However, the exact pathways and role of topography in Southern Ocean upwelling remain largely unknown. Here we show detailed upwelling pathways in three dimensions, using hydrographic observations and particle tracking in high-resolution models. The analysis reveals that the northern-sourced deep waters enter the Antarctic Circumpolar Current via southward flow along the boundaries of the three ocean basins, before spiraling southeastward and upward through the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Upwelling is greatly enhanced at five major topographic features, associated with vigorous mesoscale eddy activity. Deep water reaches the upper ocean predominantly south of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, with a spatially nonuniform distribution. The timescale for half of the deep water to upwell from 30° S to the mixed layer is ~60-90 years.Deep waters of the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans upwell in the Southern Oceanbut the exact pathways are not fully characterized. Here the authors present a three dimensional view showing a spiralling southward path, with enhanced upwelling by eddy-transport at topographic hotspots.

  8. Uncertainties in forecasting the response of polar bears to global climate change

    Douglas, David C.; Atwood, Todd C.; Butterworth, Andy

    2017-01-01

    Several sources of uncertainty affect how precisely the future status of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) can be forecasted. Foremost are unknowns about the future levels of global greenhouse gas emissions, which could range from an unabated increase to an aggressively mitigated reduction. Uncertainties also arise because different climate models project different amounts and rates of future warming (and sea ice loss)—even for the same emission scenario. There are also uncertainties about how global warming could affect the Arctic Ocean’s food web, so even if climate models project the presence of sea ice in the future, the availability of polar bear prey is not guaranteed. Under a worst-case emission scenario in which rates of greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise unabated to century’s end, the uncertainties about polar bear status center on a potential for extinction. If the species were to persist, it would likely be restricted to a high-latitude refugium in northern Canada and Greenland—assuming a food web also existed with enough accessible prey to fuel weight gains for surviving onshore during the most extreme years of summer ice melt. On the other hand, if emissions were to be aggressively mitigated at the levels proposed in the Paris Climate Agreement, healthy polar bear populations would probably continue to occupy all but the most southern areas of their contemporary summer range. While polar bears have survived previous warming phases—which indicate some resiliency to the loss of sea ice habitat—what is certain is that the present pace of warming is unprecedented and will increasingly expose polar bears to historically novel stressors.

  9. GLOBEC (Global Ocean Ecosystems Dynamics: Northwest Atlantic program

    1991-01-01

    The specific objective of the meeting was to plan an experiment in the Northwestern Atlantic to study the marine ecosystem and its role, together with that of climate and physical dynamics, in determining fisheries recruitment. The underlying focus of the GLOBEC initiative is to understand the marine ecosystem as it related to marine living resources and to understand how fluctuation in these resources are driven by climate change and exploitation. In this sense the goal is a solid scientific program to provide basic information concerning major fisheries stocks and the environment that sustains them. The plan is to attempt to reach this understanding through a multidisciplinary program that brings to bear new techniques as disparate as numerical fluid dynamic models of ocean circulation, molecular biology and modern acoustic imaging. The effort will also make use of the massive historical data sets on fisheries and the state of the climate in a coordinated manner.

  10. The Navy’s Application of Ocean Forecasting to Decision Support

    2014-09-01

    Prediction Center (OPC) website for graphics or the National Operational Model Archive and Distribution System ( NOMADS ) for data files. Regional...inputs: » GLOBE = Global Land One-km Base Elevation » WVS = World Vector Shoreline » DBDB2 = Digital Bathymetry Data Base 2 minute resolution » DBDBV... Digital Bathymetry Data Base variable resolution Oceanography | Vol. 27, No.3130 Very High-Resolution Coastal Circulation Models Nearshore

  11. Scientific management of Mediterranean coastal zone: a hybrid ocean forecasting system for oil spill and search and rescue operations.

    Jordi, A; Ferrer, M I; Vizoso, G; Orfila, A; Basterretxea, G; Casas, B; Alvarez, A; Roig, D; Garau, B; Martínez, M; Fernández, V; Fornés, A; Ruiz, M; Fornós, J J; Balaguer, P; Duarte, C M; Rodríguez, I; Alvarez, E; Onken, R; Orfila, P; Tintoré, J

    2006-01-01

    The oil spill from Prestige tanker showed the importance of scientifically based protocols to minimize the impacts on the environment. In this work, we describe a new forecasting system to predict oil spill trajectories and their potential impacts on the coastal zone. The system is formed of three main interconnected modules that address different capabilities: (1) an operational circulation sub-system that includes nested models at different scales, data collection with near-real time assimilation, new tools for initialization or assimilation based on genetic algorithms and feature-oriented strategic sampling; (2) an oil spill coastal sub-system that allows simulation of the trajectories and fate of spilled oil together with evaluation of coastal zone vulnerability using environmental sensitivity indexes; (3) a risk management sub-system for decision support based on GIS technology. The system is applied to the Mediterranean Sea where surface currents are highly variable in space and time, and interactions between local, sub-basin and basin scale increase the non-linear interactions effects which need to be adequately resolved at each one of the intervening scales. Besides the Mediterranean Sea is a complex reduced scale ocean representing a real scientific and technological challenge for operational oceanography and particularly for oil spill response and search and rescue operations.

  12. The ocean quasi-homogeneous layer model and global cycle of carbon dioxide in system of atmosphere-ocean

    Glushkov, Alexander; Glushkov, Alexander; Loboda, Nataliya; Khokhlov, Valery; Serbov, Nikoly; Svinarenko, Andrey

    The purpose of this paper is carrying out the detailed model of the CO2 global turnover in system of "atmosphere-ocean" with using the ocean quasi-homogeneous layer model. Practically all carried out models are functioning in the average annual regime and accounting for the carbon distribution in bio-sphere in most general form (Glushkov et al, 2003). We construct a modified model for cycle of the carbon dioxide, which allows to reproduce a season dynamics of carbon turnover in ocean with account of zone ocean structure (up quasi-homogeneous layer, thermocline and deepest layer). It is taken into account dependence of the CO2 transfer through the bounder between atmosphere and ocean upon temperature of water and air, wind velocity, buffer mechanism of the CO2 dissolution. The same program is realized for atmosphere part of whole system. It is obtained a tempo-ral and space distribution for concentration of non-organic carbon in ocean, partial press of dissolute CO2 and value of exchange on the border between atmosphere and ocean. It is estimated a role of the wind intermixing of the up ocean layer. The increasing of this effect leads to increasing the plankton mass and further particles, which are transferred by wind, contribute to more quick immersion of microscopic shells and organic material. It is fulfilled investigation of sen-sibility of the master differential equations system solutions from the model parameters. The master differential equa-tions system, describing a dynamics of the CO2 cycle, is numerically integrated by the four order Runge-Cutt method under given initial values of valuables till output of solution on periodic regime. At first it is indicated on possible real-zation of the chaos scenario in system. On our data, the difference of the average annual values for the non-organic car-bon concentration in the up quasi-homogeneous layer between equator and extreme southern zone is 0.15 mol/m3, be-tween the equator and extreme northern zone is 0

  13. Assessing carbon dioxide removal through global and regional ocean alkalinization under high and low emission pathways

    Lenton, Andrew; Matear, Richard J.; Keller, David P.; Scott, Vivian; Vaughan, Naomi E.

    2018-04-01

    Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels continue to rise, increasing the risk of severe impacts on the Earth system, and on the ecosystem services that it provides. Artificial ocean alkalinization (AOA) is capable of reducing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and surface warming and addressing ocean acidification. Here, we simulate global and regional responses to alkalinity (ALK) addition (0.25 PmolALK yr-1) over the period 2020-2100 using the CSIRO-Mk3L-COAL Earth System Model, under high (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5; RCP8.5) and low (RCP2.6) emissions. While regionally there are large changes in alkalinity associated with locations of AOA, globally we see only a very weak dependence on where and when AOA is applied. On a global scale, while we see that under RCP2.6 the carbon uptake associated with AOA is only ˜ 60 % of the total, under RCP8.5 the relative changes in temperature are larger, as are the changes in pH (140 %) and aragonite saturation state (170 %). The simulations reveal AOA is more effective under lower emissions, therefore the higher the emissions the more AOA is required to achieve the same reduction in global warming and ocean acidification. Finally, our simulated AOA for 2020-2100 in the RCP2.6 scenario is capable of offsetting warming and ameliorating ocean acidification increases at the global scale, but with highly variable regional responses.

  14. New Community Education Program on Oceans and Global Climate Change: Results from Our Pilot Year

    Bruno, B. C.; Wiener, C.

    2010-12-01

    Ocean FEST (Families Exploring Science Together) engages elementary school students and their parents and teachers in hands-on science. Through this evening program, we educate participants about ocean and earth science issues that are relevant to their local communities. In the process, we hope to inspire more underrepresented students, including Native Hawaiians, Pacific Islanders and girls, to pursue careers in the ocean and earth sciences. Hawaii and the Pacific Islands will be disproportionately affected by the impacts of global climate change, including rising sea levels, coastal erosion, coral reef degradation and ocean acidification. It is therefore critically important to train ocean and earth scientists within these communities. This two-hour program explores ocean properties and timely environmental topics through six hands-on science activities. Activities are designed so students can see how globally important issues (e.g., climate change and ocean acidification) have local effects (e.g., sea level rise, coastal erosion, coral bleaching) which are particularly relevant to island communities. The Ocean FEST program ends with a career component, drawing parallel between the program activities and the activities done by "real scientists" in their jobs. The take-home message is that we are all scientists, we do science every day, and we can choose to do this as a career. Ocean FEST just completed our pilot year. During the 2009-2010 academic year, we conducted 20 events, including 16 formal events held at elementary schools and 4 informal outreach events. Evaluation data were collected at all formal events. Formative feedback from adult participants (parents, teachers, administrators and volunteers) was solicited through written questionnaires. Students were invited to respond to a survey of five questions both before and after the program to see if there were any changes in content knowledge and career attitudes. In our presentation, we will present our

  15. Evaporation-precipitation variability over Indian Ocean and its assessment in NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2)

    Pokhrel, Samir; Parekh, Anant; Saha, Subodh Kumar; Dhakate, Ashish; Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S. [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (India); Rahaman, Hasibur [Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services, Hyderabad (India); Gairola, Rakesh Mohan [Space Applications Centre, ISRO, Ahmedabad (India)

    2012-11-15

    An attempt has been made to explore all the facets of Evaporation-Precipitation (E-P) distribution and variability over the Indian Ocean (IO) basin using Objectively Analyzed air-sea Fluxes (OAFlux) data and subsequently a thorough assessment of the latest version of National Centers for Environment Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) version-2 is done. This study primarily focuses on two fundamental issues, first, the core issue of pervasive cold SST bias in the CFS simulation in the context of moisture flux exchange between the atmosphere and the ocean and second, the fidelity of the model in simulating mean and variability of E-P and its elemental components associated with the climatic anomalies occurring over the Indian and the Pacific ocean basin. Valuation of evaporation and precipitation, the two integral component of E-P, along with the similar details of wind speed, air-sea humidity difference ({Delta}Q) and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) are performed. CFS simulation is vitiated by the presence of basin wide systematic positive bias in evaporation, {Delta}Q and similar negative bias in wind speed and SST. Bifurcation of the evaporation bias into its components reveals that bias in air humidity (Q{sub a}) is basically responsible for the presence of pervasive positive evaporation bias. The regions where CFS does not adhere to the observed wind-evaporation and Q{sub a} -evaporation relation was found to lie over the northern Arabian Sea (AS), the western Bay of Bengal (BoB) and the western Equatorial IO. Evaporation bias is found to control a significant quantum of cold SST bias over most of the basin owing to its intimate association with SST in a coupled feedback system. This area is stretched over the almost entire north IO, north of 15 {sup circle} S excluding a small equatorial strip, where the evaporation bias may essentially explain 20-100 % of cold SST bias. This percentage is maximum over the western IO, central AS and BoB. The CFS

  16. Light penetration structures the deep acoustic scattering layers in the global ocean.

    Aksnes, Dag L.

    2017-05-01

    The deep scattering layer (DSL) is a ubiquitous acoustic signature found across all oceans and arguably the dominant feature structuring the pelagic open ocean ecosystem. It is formed by mesopelagic fishes and pelagic invertebrates. The DSL animals are an important food source for marine megafauna and contribute to the biological carbon pump through the active flux of organic carbon transported in their daily vertical migrations. They occupy depths from 200 to 1000 m at daytime and migrate to a varying degree into surface waters at nighttime. Their daytime depth, which determines the migration amplitude, varies across the global ocean in concert with water mass properties, in particular the oxygen regime, but the causal underpinning of these correlations has been unclear. We present evidence that the broad variability in the oceanic DSL daytime depth observed during the Malaspina 2010 Circumnavigation Expedition is governed by variation in light penetration. We find that the DSL depth distribution conforms to a common optical depth layer across the global ocean and that a correlation between dissolved oxygen and light penetration provides a parsimonious explanation for the association of shallow DSL distributions with hypoxic waters. In enhancing understanding of this phenomenon, our results should improve the ability to predict and model the dynamics of one of the largest animal biomass components on earth, with key roles in the oceanic biological carbon pump and food web.

  17. Light penetration structures the deep acoustic scattering layers in the global ocean.

    Aksnes, Dag L.; Rø stad, Anders; Kaartvedt, Stein; Martinez, Udane; Duarte, Carlos M.; Irigoien, Xabier

    2017-01-01

    The deep scattering layer (DSL) is a ubiquitous acoustic signature found across all oceans and arguably the dominant feature structuring the pelagic open ocean ecosystem. It is formed by mesopelagic fishes and pelagic invertebrates. The DSL animals are an important food source for marine megafauna and contribute to the biological carbon pump through the active flux of organic carbon transported in their daily vertical migrations. They occupy depths from 200 to 1000 m at daytime and migrate to a varying degree into surface waters at nighttime. Their daytime depth, which determines the migration amplitude, varies across the global ocean in concert with water mass properties, in particular the oxygen regime, but the causal underpinning of these correlations has been unclear. We present evidence that the broad variability in the oceanic DSL daytime depth observed during the Malaspina 2010 Circumnavigation Expedition is governed by variation in light penetration. We find that the DSL depth distribution conforms to a common optical depth layer across the global ocean and that a correlation between dissolved oxygen and light penetration provides a parsimonious explanation for the association of shallow DSL distributions with hypoxic waters. In enhancing understanding of this phenomenon, our results should improve the ability to predict and model the dynamics of one of the largest animal biomass components on earth, with key roles in the oceanic biological carbon pump and food web.

  18. Assimilation of Earth rotation parameters into a global ocean model (FESOM)

    Androsov, A.; Schröter, J.; Brunnabend, S.; Saynisch, J.

    2012-04-01

    Earth Rotation Parameters (ERP) are used to improve estimates of the ocean circulation and mass budget. GRACE data can be used for verification or for further improvements. The Finite Element Sea-ice Ocean Model (FESOM) is used to simulate weekly ocean circulation and mass variations. The FESOM model is a hydrostatic ocean circulation model with a fully non-linear free surface. It solves the hydrostatic primitive equations with volume (Boussinesq approximation) and mass (Greatbatch correction) conservation. Fresh water exchange with the atmosphere and land is modelled as mass flux. This flux is the weakest part of the mass budget as it is the difference of large and uncertain quantities: evaporation, precipitation and river runoff. All uncertainties included in these parameters are directly reflected in the model results. ERP help in closing the budget in a realistic manner. Our strategy is designed for testing parametric estimation on a weekly basis. First, Oceanographic Earth rotation parameters (OERP) are calculated by subtracting atmospheric and hydrologic estimates from observed ERP. They are compared to OERP derived from a global ocean circulation model. The difference can be inverted to diagnose a correction of the oceanic mass budget. Additionally mass variations measured by GRACE are used for verification. In a second step, the global mass correction parameter, derived by the inversion, is used to improve the fresh water budget of FESOM.

  19. Realistic Paleobathymetry of the Cenomanian–Turonian (94 Ma Boundary Global Ocean

    Arghya Goswami

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available At present, global paleoclimate simulations are prepared with bathtub-like, flat, featureless and steep walled ocean bathymetry, which is neither realistic nor suitable. In this article, we present the first enhanced version of a reconstructed paleobathymetry for Cenomanian–Turonian (94 Ma time in a 0.1° × 0.1° resolution, that is both realistic and suitable for use in paleo-climate studies. This reconstruction is an extrapolation of a parameterized modern ocean bathymetry that combines simple geophysical models (standard plate cooling model for the oceanic lithosphere based on ocean crustal age, global modern oceanic sediment thicknesses, and generalized shelf-slope-rise structures calibrated from a published global relief model of the modern world (ETOPO1 at active and passive continental margins. The base version of this Cenomanian–Turonian paleobathymetry reconstruction is then updated with known submarine large igneous provinces, plateaus, and seamounts to minimize the difference between the reconstructed paleobathymetry and the real bathymetry that once existed.

  20. Thermosteric contribution of warming oceans to the global sea level variations

    Bâki Iz H.

    2016-01-01

    Thermosteric contribution of warming oceans to the global sea level variations during the last century was evaluated at globally distributed 27 tide gauge stations with records over 80 years. The assessment was made using a recently proposed lagged model inclusive of a sea level trend, long and decadal periodicities, and lagged sea surface temperature measurements. The new model solutions revealed that almost all the long period periodic sea level changes experienced a...

  1. Ocean Depths: The Mesopelagic and Implications for Global Warming.

    Costello, Mark J; Breyer, Sean

    2017-01-09

    The mesopelagic or 'twilight zone' of the oceans occurs too deep for photosynthesis, but is a major part of the world's carbon cycle. Depth boundaries for the mesopelagic have now been shown on a global scale using the distribution of pelagic animals detected by compiling echo-soundings from ships around the world, and been used to predict the effect of global warming on regional fish production. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Global multi-decadal ocean climate and small-pelagic fish population

    Tourre, Yves M; Lluch-Cota, Salvador E; White, Warren B

    2007-01-01

    Ocean climate, environmental and biological conditions vary on several spatio-temporal scales. Besides climate change associated with anthropogenic activity, there is growing evidence of a natural global multi-decadal climate signal in the ocean-atmosphere-biosphere climate system. The spatio-temporal evolution of this signal is thus analyzed during the 20th century and compared to the variability of small-pelagic fish landings. It is argued that the low-frequency global ocean environment and plankton ecosystems must be modified such that small-pelagic populations vary accordingly. A small-pelagic global index or fishing 'regime indicator series' (RIS) (i.e. a small-pelagic abundance indicator) is used. RIS is derived from fish landings data in the four main fishing areas in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. Global RIS changes phase (from positive to negative values) when SST multi-decadal anomalies are out-of-phase between the eastern Pacific and southern Atlantic. RIS also displays maxima during the mid-30s to early-40s and the late-70s to early-80s when the multi-decadal signal was approximately changing phases (Tourre and White 2006 Geophys. Res. Lett. 33 L06716). It is recognized that other factors may modulate fish stocks, including anthropogenic predation. Nevertheless it is proposed that variable climate and environment, and the low-frequency 'global synchrony' of small-pelagic landings (Schwartzlose et al 1999 S. Afr. J. Mar. Sci. 21 289-347), could be associated with the multi-decadal changes in global ocean climate conditions

  3. Hourly forecasting of global solar radiation based on multiscale decomposition methods: A hybrid approach

    Monjoly, Stéphanie; André, Maïna; Calif, Rudy; Soubdhan, Ted

    2017-01-01

    This paper introduces a new approach for the forecasting of solar radiation series at 1 h ahead. We investigated on several techniques of multiscale decomposition of clear sky index K_c data such as Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD), Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) and Wavelet Decomposition. From these differents methods, we built 11 decomposition components and 1 residu signal presenting different time scales. We performed classic forecasting models based on linear method (Autoregressive process AR) and a non linear method (Neural Network model). The choice of forecasting method is adaptative on the characteristic of each component. Hence, we proposed a modeling process which is built from a hybrid structure according to the defined flowchart. An analysis of predictive performances for solar forecasting from the different multiscale decompositions and forecast models is presented. From multiscale decomposition, the solar forecast accuracy is significantly improved, particularly using the wavelet decomposition method. Moreover, multistep forecasting with the proposed hybrid method resulted in additional improvement. For example, in terms of RMSE error, the obtained forecasting with the classical NN model is about 25.86%, this error decrease to 16.91% with the EMD-Hybrid Model, 14.06% with the EEMD-Hybid model and to 7.86% with the WD-Hybrid Model. - Highlights: • Hourly forecasting of GHI in tropical climate with many cloud formation processes. • Clear sky Index decomposition using three multiscale decomposition methods. • Combination of multiscale decomposition methods with AR-NN models to predict GHI. • Comparison of the proposed hybrid model with the classical models (AR, NN). • Best results using Wavelet-Hybrid model in comparison with classical models.

  4. Toward Global Drought Early Warning Capability - Expanding International Cooperation for the Development of a Framework for Monitoring and Forecasting

    Pozzi, Will; Sheffield, Justin; Stefanski, Robert; Cripe, Douglas; Pulwarty, Roger; Vogt, Jurgen V.; Heim, Richard R., Jr.; Brewer, Michael J.; Svoboda, Mark; Westerhoff, Rogier; hide

    2013-01-01

    Drought has had a significant impact on civilization throughout history in terms of reductions in agricultural productivity, potable water supply, and economic activity, and in extreme cases this has led to famine. Every continent has semiarid areas, which are especially vulnerable to drought. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has noted that average annual river runoff and water availability are projected to decrease by 10 percent-13 percent over some dry and semiarid regions in mid and low latitudes, increasing the frequency, intensity, and duration of drought, along with its associated impacts. The sheer magnitude of the problem demands efforts to reduce vulnerability to drought by moving away from the reactive, crisis management approach of the past toward a more proactive, risk management approach that is centered on reducing vulnerability to drought as much as possible while providing early warning of evolving drought conditions and possible impacts. Many countries, unfortunately, do not have adequate resources to provide early warning, but require outside support to provide the necessary early warning information for risk management. Furthermore, in an interconnected world, the need for information on a global scale is crucial for understanding the prospect of declines in agricultural productivity and associated impacts on food prices, food security, and potential for civil conflict. This paper highlights the recent progress made toward a Global Drought Early Warning Monitoring Framework (GDEWF), an underlying partnership and framework, along with its Global Drought Early Warning System (GDEWS), which is its interoperable information system, and the organizations that have begun working together to make it a reality. The GDEWF aims to improve existing regional and national drought monitoring and forecasting capabilities by adding a global component, facilitating continental monitoring and forecasting (where lacking), and improving these tools at

  5. Temperature profiles from expendable bathythermograph (XBT) casts from NOAA Ship RAINIER in the North Pacific Ocean in support of the Integrated Global Ocean Services System (IGOSS) project from 1979-09-11 to 1979-09-14 (NODC Accession 8000279)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — XBT data were collected from NOAA Ship RAINIER in support of the Integrated Global Ocean Services System (IGOSS) project. Data were collected by the National Ocean...

  6. Schwarz-Christoffel Conformal Mapping based Grid Generation for Global Oceanic Circulation Models

    Xu, Shiming

    2015-04-01

    We propose new grid generation algorithms for global ocean general circulation models (OGCMs). Contrary to conventional, analytical forms based dipolar or tripolar grids, the new algorithm are based on Schwarz-Christoffel (SC) conformal mapping with prescribed boundary information. While dealing with the conventional grid design problem of pole relocation, it also addresses more advanced issues of computational efficiency and the new requirements on OGCM grids arisen from the recent trend of high-resolution and multi-scale modeling. The proposed grid generation algorithm could potentially achieve the alignment of grid lines to coastlines, enhanced spatial resolution in coastal regions, and easier computational load balance. Since the generated grids are still orthogonal curvilinear, they can be readily 10 utilized in existing Bryan-Cox-Semtner type ocean models. The proposed methodology can also be applied to the grid generation task for regional ocean modeling when complex land-ocean distribution is present.

  7. M2, S2, K1 models of the global ocean tide

    Parke, M. E.; Hendershott, M. C.

    1979-01-01

    Ocean tidal signals appear in many geophysical measurements. Geophysicists need realistic tidal models to aid in interpretation of their data. Because of the closeness to resonance of dissipationless ocean tides, it is difficult for numerical models to correctly represent the actual open ocean tide. As an approximate solution to this problem, test functions derived by solving Laplace's Tidal Equations with ocean loading and self gravitation are used as a basis for least squares dynamic interpolation of coastal and island tidal data for the constituents M2, S2, and Kl. The resulting representations of the global tide are stable over at least a ?5% variation in the mean depth of the model basin, and they conserve mass. Maps of the geocentric tide, the induced free space potential, the induced vertical component of the solid earth tide, and the induced vertical component of the gravitational field for each contituent are presented.

  8. Climate Change and China as a Global Emerging Regulatory Sea Power in the Arctic Ocean

    Cassotta Pertoldi-Bianchi, Sandra; Hossain, Kamrul; Ren, Jingzheng

    2015-01-01

    The impact of climate change in the Arctic Ocean such as ice melting and ice retreat facilitates natural resources extraction. Arctic fossil fuel becomes the drivers of geopolitical changes in the Arctic Ocean. Climate change facilitates natural resource extractions and increases competition...... on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and the Arctic Council (AC) are taken into consideration under climate change effects, to assess how global legal frameworks and institutions can deal with China’s strategy in the Arctic Ocean. China’s is moving away from its role as “humble power” to one of “informal...... imperialistic” resulting in substantial impact on the Arctic and Antartic dynamism. Due to ice-melting, an easy access to natural resources, China’s Arctic strategy in the Arctic Ocean has reinforced its military martitime strategy and has profoundly changed its maritime military doctrine shifting from regional...

  9. Twelve previously unknown phage genera are ubiquitous in global oceans.

    Holmfeldt, Karin; Solonenko, Natalie; Shah, Manesh; Corrier, Kristen; Riemann, Lasse; Verberkmoes, Nathan C; Sullivan, Matthew B

    2013-07-30

    Viruses are fundamental to ecosystems ranging from oceans to humans, yet our ability to study them is bottlenecked by the lack of ecologically relevant isolates, resulting in "unknowns" dominating culture-independent surveys. Here we present genomes from 31 phages infecting multiple strains of the aquatic bacterium Cellulophaga baltica (Bacteroidetes) to provide data for an underrepresented and environmentally abundant bacterial lineage. Comparative genomics delineated 12 phage groups that (i) each represent a new genus, and (ii) represent one novel and four well-known viral families. This diversity contrasts the few well-studied marine phage systems, but parallels the diversity of phages infecting human-associated bacteria. Although all 12 Cellulophaga phages represent new genera, the podoviruses and icosahedral, nontailed ssDNA phages were exceptional, with genomes up to twice as large as those previously observed for each phage type. Structural novelty was also substantial, requiring experimental phage proteomics to identify 83% of the structural proteins. The presence of uncommon nucleotide metabolism genes in four genera likely underscores the importance of scavenging nutrient-rich molecules as previously seen for phages in marine environments. Metagenomic recruitment analyses suggest that these particular Cellulophaga phages are rare and may represent a first glimpse into the phage side of the rare biosphere. However, these analyses also revealed that these phage genera are widespread, occurring in 94% of 137 investigated metagenomes. Together, this diverse and novel collection of phages identifies a small but ubiquitous fraction of unknown marine viral diversity and provides numerous environmentally relevant phage-host systems for experimental hypothesis testing.

  10. Twenty Years of Progress on Global Ocean Tides: The Impact of Satellite Altimetry

    Egbert, Gary; Ray, Richard

    2012-01-01

    At the dawn of the era of high-precision altimetry, before the launch of TOPEX/Poseidon, ocean tides were properly viewed as a source of noise--tidal variations in ocean height would represent a very substantial fraction of what the altimeter measures, and would have to be accurately predicted and subtracted if altimetry were to achieve its potential for ocean and climate studies. But to the extent that the altimetry could be severely contaminated by tides, it also represented an unprecedented global-scale tidal data set. These new data, together with research stimulated by the need for accurate tidal corrections, led to a renaissance in tidal studies in the oceanographic community. In this paper we review contributions of altimetry to tidal science over the past 20 years, emphasizing recent progress. Mapping of tides has now been extended from the early focus on major constituents in the open ocean to include minor constituents, (e.g., long-period tides; non-linear tides in shelf waters, and in the open ocean), and into shallow and coastal waters. Global and spatially local estimates of tidal energy balance have been refined, and the role of internal tide conversion in dissipating barotropic tidal energy is now well established through modeling, altimetry, and in situ observations. However, energy budgets for internal tides, and the role of tidal dissipation in vertical ocean mixing remain controversial topics. Altimetry may contribute to resolving some of these important questions through improved mapping of low-mode internal tides. This area has advanced significantly in recent years, with several global maps now available, and progress on constraining temporally incoherent components. For the future, new applications of altimetry (e.g., in the coastal ocean, where barotropic tidal models remain inadequate), and new mission concepts (studies of the submesoscale with SWOT, which will require correction for internal tides) may bring us full circle, again pushing

  11. Synthesis and Assimilation Systems - Essential Adjuncts to the Global Ocean Observing System

    Rienecker, Michele M.; Balmaseda, Magdalena; Awaji, Toshiyuki; Barnier, Bernard; Behringer, David; Bell, Mike; Bourassa, Mark; Brasseur, Pierre; Breivik, Lars-Anders; Carton, James; hide

    2009-01-01

    Ocean assimilation systems synthesize diverse in situ and satellite data streams into four-dimensional state estimates by combining the various observations with the model. Assimilation is particularly important for the ocean where subsurface observations, even today, are sparse and intermittent compared with the scales needed to represent ocean variability and where satellites only sense the surface. Developments in assimilation and in the observing system have advanced our understanding and prediction of ocean variations at mesoscale and climate scales. Use of these systems for assessing the observing system helps identify the strengths of each observation type. Results indicate that the ocean remains under-sampled and that further improvements in the observing system are needed. Prospects for future advances lie in improved models and better estimates of error statistics for both models and observations. Future developments will be increasingly towards consistent analyses across components of the Earth system. However, even today ocean synthesis and assimilation systems are providing products that are useful for many applications and should be considered an integral part of the global ocean observing and information system.

  12. Long-range transport of airborne microbes over the global tropical and subtropical ocean

    Mayol, Eva; Arrieta, J M; Jimé nez, Maria A.; Martí nez-Asensio, Adriá n; Garcias Bonet, Neus; Dachs, Jordi; Gonzá lez-Gaya, Belé n; Royer, Sarah-J.; Bení tez-Barrios, Veró nica M.; Fraile-Nuez, Eugenio; Duarte, Carlos M.

    2017-01-01

    The atmosphere plays a fundamental role in the transport of microbes across the planet but it is often neglected as a microbial habitat. Although the ocean represents two thirds of the Earth's surface, there is little information on the atmospheric microbial load over the open ocean. Here we provide a global estimate of microbial loads and air-sea exchanges over the tropical and subtropical oceans based on the data collected along the Malaspina 2010 Circumnavigation Expedition. Total loads of airborne prokaryotes and eukaryotes were estimated at 2.2 × 1021 and 2.1 × 1021 cells, respectively. Overall 33-68% of these microorganisms could be traced to a marine origin, being transported thousands of kilometres before re-entering the ocean. Moreover, our results show a substantial load of terrestrial microbes transported over the oceans, with abundances declining exponentially with distance from land and indicate that islands may act as stepping stones facilitating the transoceanic transport of terrestrial microbes.The extent to which the ocean acts as a sink and source of airborne particles to the atmosphere is unresolved. Here, the authors report high microbial loads over the tropical Atlantic, Pacific and Indian oceans and propose islands as stepping stones for the transoceanic transport of terrestrial microbes..

  13. Long-range transport of airborne microbes over the global tropical and subtropical ocean

    Mayol, Eva

    2017-07-28

    The atmosphere plays a fundamental role in the transport of microbes across the planet but it is often neglected as a microbial habitat. Although the ocean represents two thirds of the Earth\\'s surface, there is little information on the atmospheric microbial load over the open ocean. Here we provide a global estimate of microbial loads and air-sea exchanges over the tropical and subtropical oceans based on the data collected along the Malaspina 2010 Circumnavigation Expedition. Total loads of airborne prokaryotes and eukaryotes were estimated at 2.2 × 1021 and 2.1 × 1021 cells, respectively. Overall 33-68% of these microorganisms could be traced to a marine origin, being transported thousands of kilometres before re-entering the ocean. Moreover, our results show a substantial load of terrestrial microbes transported over the oceans, with abundances declining exponentially with distance from land and indicate that islands may act as stepping stones facilitating the transoceanic transport of terrestrial microbes.The extent to which the ocean acts as a sink and source of airborne particles to the atmosphere is unresolved. Here, the authors report high microbial loads over the tropical Atlantic, Pacific and Indian oceans and propose islands as stepping stones for the transoceanic transport of terrestrial microbes..

  14. Role of zooplankton dynamics for Southern Ocean phytoplankton biomass and global biogeochemical cycles

    Le Quéré, Corinne; Buitenhuis, Erik T.; Moriarty, Róisín

    2016-01-01

    zooplankton community, despite iron limitation of phytoplankton community growth rates. This result has implications for the representation of global biogeochemical cycles in models as zooplankton faecal pellets sink rapidly and partly control the carbon export to the intermediate and deep ocean....

  15. Turnover time of fluorescent dissolved organic matter in the dark global ocean

    Catalá, Teresa Serrano; Reche, Isabel; Fuentes-Lema, Antonio

    2015-01-01

    with a turnover time of 379±103 years is also detected. We propose the use of DOM fluorescence to study the cycling of resistant DOM that is preserved at centennial timescales and could represent a mechanism of carbon sequestration (humic-like fraction) and the decaying DOM injected into the dark global ocean......, where it decreases at centennial timescales (tyrosine-like fraction)...

  16. Global Modeling of Internal Tides Within an Eddying Ocean General Circulation Model

    2012-05-31

    paper aooo not violate: any Oisclosur~,;·of trade• secrets or suggestions of outside individuals on::oncams whiCh have· beE !n communicated 1.o...fully three- dimensional global ocean circulation model, we will provide an internal tide capability everywhere, and allow nested models to include

  17. A data-assimilative ocean forecasting system for the Prince William sound and an evaluation of its performance during sound Predictions 2009

    Farrara, John D.; Chao, Yi; Li, Zhijin; Wang, Xiaochun; Jin, Xin; Zhang, Hongchun; Li, Peggy; Vu, Quoc; Olsson, Peter Q.; Schoch, G. Carl; Halverson, Mark; Moline, Mark A.; Ohlmann, Carter; Johnson, Mark; McWilliams, James C.; Colas, Francois A.

    2013-07-01

    The development and implementation of a three-dimensional ocean modeling system for the Prince William Sound (PWS) is described. The system consists of a regional ocean model component (ROMS) forced by output from a regional atmospheric model component (the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, WRF). The ROMS ocean model component has a horizontal resolution of 1km within PWS and utilizes a recently-developed multi-scale 3DVAR data assimilation methodology along with freshwater runoff from land obtained via real-time execution of a digital elevation model. During the Sound Predictions Field Experiment (July 19-August 3, 2009) the system was run in real-time to support operations and incorporated all available real-time streams of data. Nowcasts were produced every 6h and a 48-h forecast was performed once a day. In addition, a sixteen-member ensemble of forecasts was executed on most days. All results were published at a web portal (http://ourocean.jpl.nasa.gov/PWS) in real time to support decision making.The performance of the system during Sound Predictions 2009 is evaluated. The ROMS results are first compared with the assimilated data as a consistency check. RMS differences of about 0.7°C were found between the ROMS temperatures and the observed vertical profiles of temperature that are assimilated. The ROMS salinities show greater discrepancies, tending to be too salty near the surface. The overall circulation patterns observed throughout the Sound are qualitatively reproduced, including the following evolution in time. During the first week of the experiment, the weather was quite stormy with strong southeasterly winds. This resulted in strong north to northwestward surface flow in much of the central PWS. Both the observed drifter trajectories and the ROMS nowcasts showed strong surface inflow into the Sound through the Hinchinbrook Entrance and strong generally northward to northwestward flow in the central Sound that was exiting through the Knight

  18. Forecasting freight flows

    Lyk-Jensen, Stéphanie

    2011-01-01

    Trade patterns and transport markets are changing as a result of the growth and globalization of international trade, and forecasting future freight flow has to rely on trade forecasts. Forecasting freight flows is critical for matching infrastructure supply to demand and for assessing investment...... constitute a valuable input to freight models for forecasting future capacity problems.......Trade patterns and transport markets are changing as a result of the growth and globalization of international trade, and forecasting future freight flow has to rely on trade forecasts. Forecasting freight flows is critical for matching infrastructure supply to demand and for assessing investment...

  19. NWS Marine Forecast Areas

    of Commerce Ocean Prediction Center National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Analysis & Unified Surface Analysis Ocean Ocean Products Ice & Icebergs NIC Ice Products NAIS Iceberg Analysis Social Media Facebook Twitter YouTube Search Search For Go NWS All NOAA NWS Marine Forecast Areas

  20. Response of Southern Ocean circulation to global warming may enhance basal ice shelf melting around Antarctica

    Hattermann, Tore; Levermann, Anders [Potsdam University, Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam (Germany)

    2010-10-15

    We investigate the large-scale oceanic features determining the future ice shelf-ocean interaction by analyzing global warming experiments in a coarse resolution climate model with a comprehensive ocean component. Heat and freshwater fluxes from basal ice shelf melting (ISM) are parameterized following Beckmann and Goosse [Ocean Model 5(2):157-170, 2003]. Melting sensitivities to the oceanic temperature outside of the ice shelf cavities are varied from linear to quadratic (Holland et al. in J Clim 21, 2008). In 1% per year CO{sub 2}-increase experiments the total freshwater flux from ISM triples to 0.09 Sv in the linear case and more than quadruples to 0.15 Sv in the quadratic case after 140 years at which 4 x 280 ppm = 1,120 ppm was reached. Due to the long response time of subsurface temperature anomalies, ISM thereafter increases drastically, if CO{sub 2} concentrations are kept constant at 1,120 ppm. Varying strength of the Antarctic circumpolar current (ACC) is crucial for ISM increase, because southward advection of heat dominates the warming along the Antarctic coast. On centennial timescales the ACC accelerates due to deep ocean warming north of the current, caused by mixing of heat along isopycnals in the Southern Ocean (SO) outcropping regions. In contrast to previous studies we find an initial weakening of the ACC during the first 150 years of warming. This purely baroclinic effect is due to a freshening in the SO which is consistent with present observations. Comparison with simulations with diagnosed ISM but without its influence on the ocean circulation reveal a number of ISM-related feedbacks, of which a negative ISM-feedback, due to the ISM-related local oceanic cooling, is the dominant one. (orig.)