WorldWideScience

Sample records for global nitrate models

  1. Modeled Wet Nitrate Deposition

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Modeled data on nitrate wet deposition was obtained from Dr. Jeff Grimm at Penn State Univ. Nitrate wet depostion causes acidification and eutrophication of surface...

  2. Modeling the current and future role of particulate organic nitrates in the southeastern United States

    Organic nitrates are an important aerosol constituent in locations where biogenic hydrocarbon emissions mix with anthropogenic NOx sources. While regional and global chemical transport models may include a representation of organic aerosol from monoterpene reactions with nitrate ...

  3. Global Patterns of Legacy Nitrate Storage in the Vadose Zone

    Ascott, M.; Gooddy, D.; Wang, L.; Stuart, M.; Lewis, M.; Ward, R.; Binley, A. M.

    2017-12-01

    Global-scale nitrogen (N) budgets have been developed to quantify the impact of man's influence on the nitrogen cycle. However, these budgets often do not consider legacy effects such as accumulation of nitrate in the deep vadose zone. In this presentation we show that the vadose zone is an important store of nitrate which should be considered in future nitrogen budgets for effective policymaking. Using estimates of depth to groundwater and nitrate leaching for 1900-2000, we quantify for the first time the peak global storage of nitrate in the vadose zone, estimated as 605 - 1814 Teragrams (Tg). Estimates of nitrate storage are validated using previous national and basin scale estimates of N storage and observed groundwater nitrate data for North America and Europe. Nitrate accumulation per unit area is greatest in North America, China and Central and Eastern Europe where thick vadose zones are present and there is an extensive history of agriculture. In these areas the long solute travel time in the vadose zone means that the anticipated impact of changes in agricultural practices on groundwater quality may be substantially delayed. We argue that in these areas use of conventional nitrogen budget approaches is inappropriate and their continued use will lead to significant errors.

  4. Investigation of global particulate nitrate from the AeroCom phase III experiment

    H. Bian

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available An assessment of global particulate nitrate and ammonium aerosol based on simulations from nine models participating in the Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom phase III study is presented. A budget analysis was conducted to understand the typical magnitude, distribution, and diversity of the aerosols and their precursors among the models. To gain confidence regarding model performance, the model results were evaluated with various observations globally, including ground station measurements over North America, Europe, and east Asia for tracer concentrations and dry and wet depositions, as well as with aircraft measurements in the Northern Hemisphere mid-to-high latitudes for tracer vertical distributions. Given the unique chemical and physical features of the nitrate occurrence, we further investigated the similarity and differentiation among the models by examining (1 the pH-dependent NH3 wet deposition; (2 the nitrate formation via heterogeneous chemistry on the surface of dust and sea salt particles or thermodynamic equilibrium calculation including dust and sea salt ions; and (3 the nitrate coarse-mode fraction (i.e., coarse/total. It is found that HNO3, which is simulated explicitly based on full O3-HOx-NOx-aerosol chemistry by all models, differs by up to a factor of 9 among the models in its global tropospheric burden. This partially contributes to a large difference in NO3−, whose atmospheric burden differs by up to a factor of 13. The atmospheric burdens of NH3 and NH4+ differ by 17 and 4, respectively. Analyses at the process level show that the large diversity in atmospheric burdens of NO3−, NH3, and NH4+ is also related to deposition processes. Wet deposition seems to be the dominant process in determining the diversity in NH3 and NH4+ lifetimes. It is critical to correctly account for contributions of heterogeneous chemical production of nitrate on dust and sea salt, because this process

  5. Modeling the Current and Future Roles of Particulate Organic Nitrates in the Southeastern United States.

    Pye, Havala O T; Luecken, Deborah J; Xu, Lu; Boyd, Christopher M; Ng, Nga L; Baker, Kirk R; Ayres, Benjamin R; Bash, Jesse O; Baumann, Karsten; Carter, William P L; Edgerton, Eric; Fry, Juliane L; Hutzell, William T; Schwede, Donna B; Shepson, Paul B

    2015-12-15

    Organic nitrates are an important aerosol constituent in locations where biogenic hydrocarbon emissions mix with anthropogenic NOx sources. While regional and global chemical transport models may include a representation of organic aerosol from monoterpene reactions with nitrate radicals (the primary source of particle-phase organic nitrates in the Southeast United States), secondary organic aerosol (SOA) models can underestimate yields. Furthermore, SOA parametrizations do not explicitly take into account organic nitrate compounds produced in the gas phase. In this work, we developed a coupled gas and aerosol system to describe the formation and subsequent aerosol-phase partitioning of organic nitrates from isoprene and monoterpenes with a focus on the Southeast United States. The concentrations of organic aerosol and gas-phase organic nitrates were improved when particulate organic nitrates were assumed to undergo rapid (τ = 3 h) pseudohydrolysis resulting in nitric acid and nonvolatile secondary organic aerosol. In addition, up to 60% of less oxidized-oxygenated organic aerosol (LO-OOA) could be accounted for via organic nitrate mediated chemistry during the Southern Oxidants and Aerosol Study (SOAS). A 25% reduction in nitrogen oxide (NO + NO2) emissions was predicted to cause a 9% reduction in organic aerosol for June 2013 SOAS conditions at Centreville, Alabama.

  6. Modeling groundwater nitrate concentrations in private wells in Iowa.

    Wheeler, David C; Nolan, Bernard T; Flory, Abigail R; DellaValle, Curt T; Ward, Mary H

    2015-12-01

    Contamination of drinking water by nitrate is a growing problem in many agricultural areas of the country. Ingested nitrate can lead to the endogenous formation of N-nitroso compounds, potent carcinogens. We developed a predictive model for nitrate concentrations in private wells in Iowa. Using 34,084 measurements of nitrate in private wells, we trained and tested random forest models to predict log nitrate levels by systematically assessing the predictive performance of 179 variables in 36 thematic groups (well depth, distance to sinkholes, location, land use, soil characteristics, nitrogen inputs, meteorology, and other factors). The final model contained 66 variables in 17 groups. Some of the most important variables were well depth, slope length within 1 km of the well, year of sample, and distance to nearest animal feeding operation. The correlation between observed and estimated nitrate concentrations was excellent in the training set (r-square=0.77) and was acceptable in the testing set (r-square=0.38). The random forest model had substantially better predictive performance than a traditional linear regression model or a regression tree. Our model will be used to investigate the association between nitrate levels in drinking water and cancer risk in the Iowa participants of the Agricultural Health Study cohort. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Modeling groundwater nitrate concentrations in private wells in Iowa

    Wheeler, David C.; Nolan, Bernard T.; Flory, Abigail R.; DellaValle, Curt T.; Ward, Mary H.

    2015-01-01

    Contamination of drinking water by nitrate is a growing problem in many agricultural areas of the country. Ingested nitrate can lead to the endogenous formation of N-nitroso compounds, potent carcinogens. We developed a predictive model for nitrate concentrations in private wells in Iowa. Using 34,084 measurements of nitrate in private wells, we trained and tested random forest models to predict log nitrate levels by systematically assessing the predictive performance of 179 variables in 36 thematic groups (well depth, distance to sinkholes, location, land use, soil characteristics, nitrogen inputs, meteorology, and other factors). The final model contained 66 variables in 17 groups. Some of the most important variables were well depth, slope length within 1 km of the well, year of sample, and distance to nearest animal feeding operation. The correlation between observed and estimated nitrate concentrations was excellent in the training set (r-square = 0.77) and was acceptable in the testing set (r-square = 0.38). The random forest model had substantially better predictive performance than a traditional linear regression model or a regression tree. Our model will be used to investigate the association between nitrate levels in drinking water and cancer risk in the Iowa participants of the Agricultural Health Study cohort.

  8. Drinking-Water Nitrate, Methemoglobinemia, and Global Burden of Disease: A Discussion

    Fewtrell, Lorna

    2004-01-01

    On behalf of the World Health Organization (WHO), I have undertaken a series of literature-based investigations examining the global burden of disease related to a number of environmental risk factors associated with drinking water. In this article I outline the investigation of drinking-water nitrate concentration and methemoglobinemia. The exposure assessment was based on levels of nitrate in drinking water greater than the WHO guideline value of 50 mg/L. No exposure–response relationship, however, could be identified that related drinking-water nitrate level to methemoglobinemia. Indeed, although it has previously been accepted that consumption of drinking water high in nitrates causes methemoglobinemia in infants, it appears now that nitrate may be one of a number of co-factors that play a sometimes complex role in causing the disease. I conclude that, given the apparently low incidence of possible water-related methemoglobinemia, the complex nature of the role of nitrates, and that of individual behavior, it is currently inappropriate to attempt to link illness rates with drinking-water nitrate levels. PMID:15471727

  9. Simultaneous removal of sulfide, nitrate and acetate: Kinetic modeling

    Wang Aijie; Liu Chunshuang; Ren Nanqi; Han Hongjun; Lee Duujong

    2010-01-01

    Biological removal of sulfide, nitrate and chemical oxygen demand (COD) simultaneously from industrial wastewaters to elementary sulfur (S 0 ), N 2 , and CO 2 , or named the denitrifying sulfide (DSR) process, is a cost effective and environmentally friendly treatment process for high strength sulfide and nitrate laden organic wastewater. Kinetic model for the DSR process was established for the first time on the basis of Activated Sludge Model No. 1 (ASM1). The DSR experiments were conducted at influent sulfide concentrations of 200-800 mg/L, whose results calibrate the model parameters. The model correlates well with the DSR process dynamics. By introducing the switch function and the inhibition function, the competition between autotrophic and heterotrophic denitrifiers is quantitatively described and the degree of inhibition of sulfide on heterotrophic denitrifiers is realized. The model output indicates that the DSR reactor can work well at 0.5 1000 mg/L influent sulfide, however, the DSR system will break down.

  10. Global Delivery Models

    Manning, Stephan; Larsen, Marcus M.; Bharati, Pratyush

    2013-01-01

    This article examines antecedents and performance implications of global delivery models (GDMs) in global business services. GDMs require geographically distributed operations to exploit both proximity to clients and time-zone spread for efficient service delivery. We propose and empirically show...

  11. Global ice sheet modeling

    Hughes, T.J.; Fastook, J.L.

    1994-05-01

    The University of Maine conducted this study for Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate modeling task for site characterization of the potential nuclear waste respository site at Yucca Mountain, NV. The purpose of the study was to develop a global ice sheet dynamics model that will forecast the three-dimensional configuration of global ice sheets for specific climate change scenarios. The objective of the third (final) year of the work was to produce ice sheet data for glaciation scenarios covering the next 100,000 years. This was accomplished using both the map-plane and flowband solutions of our time-dependent, finite-element gridpoint model. The theory and equations used to develop the ice sheet models are presented. Three future scenarios were simulated by the model and results are discussed

  12. Nitrate source apportionment in a subtropical watershed using Bayesian model

    Yang, Liping; Han, Jiangpei; Xue, Jianlong; Zeng, Lingzao [College of Environmental and Natural Resource Sciences, Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Subtropical Soil and Plant Nutrition, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058 (China); Shi, Jiachun, E-mail: jcshi@zju.edu.cn [College of Environmental and Natural Resource Sciences, Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Subtropical Soil and Plant Nutrition, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058 (China); Wu, Laosheng, E-mail: laowu@zju.edu.cn [College of Environmental and Natural Resource Sciences, Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Subtropical Soil and Plant Nutrition, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058 (China); Jiang, Yonghai [State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing, 100012 (China)

    2013-10-01

    Nitrate (NO{sub 3}{sup −}) pollution in aquatic system is a worldwide problem. The temporal distribution pattern and sources of nitrate are of great concern for water quality. The nitrogen (N) cycling processes in a subtropical watershed located in Changxing County, Zhejiang Province, China were greatly influenced by the temporal variations of precipitation and temperature during the study period (September 2011 to July 2012). The highest NO{sub 3}{sup −} concentration in water was in May (wet season, mean ± SD = 17.45 ± 9.50 mg L{sup −1}) and the lowest concentration occurred in December (dry season, mean ± SD = 10.54 ± 6.28 mg L{sup −1}). Nevertheless, no water sample in the study area exceeds the WHO drinking water limit of 50 mg L{sup −1} NO{sub 3}{sup −}. Four sources of NO{sub 3}{sup −} (atmospheric deposition, AD; soil N, SN; synthetic fertilizer, SF; manure and sewage, M and S) were identified using both hydrochemical characteristics [Cl{sup −}, NO{sub 3}{sup −}, HCO{sub 3}{sup −}, SO{sub 4}{sup 2−}, Ca{sup 2+}, K{sup +}, Mg{sup 2+}, Na{sup +}, dissolved oxygen (DO)] and dual isotope approach (δ{sup 15}N–NO{sub 3}{sup −} and δ{sup 18}O–NO{sub 3}{sup −}). Both chemical and isotopic characteristics indicated that denitrification was not the main N cycling process in the study area. Using a Bayesian model (stable isotope analysis in R, SIAR), the contribution of each source was apportioned. Source apportionment results showed that source contributions differed significantly between the dry and wet season, AD and M and S contributed more in December than in May. In contrast, SN and SF contributed more NO{sub 3}{sup −} to water in May than that in December. M and S and SF were the major contributors in December and May, respectively. Moreover, the shortcomings and uncertainties of SIAR were discussed to provide implications for future works. With the assessment of temporal variation and sources of NO{sub 3}{sup −}, better

  13. Nitrate source apportionment in a subtropical watershed using Bayesian model

    Yang, Liping; Han, Jiangpei; Xue, Jianlong; Zeng, Lingzao; Shi, Jiachun; Wu, Laosheng; Jiang, Yonghai

    2013-01-01

    Nitrate (NO 3 − ) pollution in aquatic system is a worldwide problem. The temporal distribution pattern and sources of nitrate are of great concern for water quality. The nitrogen (N) cycling processes in a subtropical watershed located in Changxing County, Zhejiang Province, China were greatly influenced by the temporal variations of precipitation and temperature during the study period (September 2011 to July 2012). The highest NO 3 − concentration in water was in May (wet season, mean ± SD = 17.45 ± 9.50 mg L −1 ) and the lowest concentration occurred in December (dry season, mean ± SD = 10.54 ± 6.28 mg L −1 ). Nevertheless, no water sample in the study area exceeds the WHO drinking water limit of 50 mg L −1 NO 3 − . Four sources of NO 3 − (atmospheric deposition, AD; soil N, SN; synthetic fertilizer, SF; manure and sewage, M and S) were identified using both hydrochemical characteristics [Cl − , NO 3 − , HCO 3 − , SO 4 2− , Ca 2+ , K + , Mg 2+ , Na + , dissolved oxygen (DO)] and dual isotope approach (δ 15 N–NO 3 − and δ 18 O–NO 3 − ). Both chemical and isotopic characteristics indicated that denitrification was not the main N cycling process in the study area. Using a Bayesian model (stable isotope analysis in R, SIAR), the contribution of each source was apportioned. Source apportionment results showed that source contributions differed significantly between the dry and wet season, AD and M and S contributed more in December than in May. In contrast, SN and SF contributed more NO 3 − to water in May than that in December. M and S and SF were the major contributors in December and May, respectively. Moreover, the shortcomings and uncertainties of SIAR were discussed to provide implications for future works. With the assessment of temporal variation and sources of NO 3 − , better agricultural management practices and sewage disposal programs can be implemented to sustain water quality in subtropical watersheds

  14. Simultaneous removal of sulfide, nitrate and acetate: Kinetic modeling

    Wang Aijie, E-mail: waj0578@hit.edu.cn [State Key Laboratory of Urban Water Resource and Environment, Harbin Institute of Technology (SKLUWRE, HIT), Harbin 150090 (China); Liu Chunshuang; Ren Nanqi; Han Hongjun [State Key Laboratory of Urban Water Resource and Environment, Harbin Institute of Technology (SKLUWRE, HIT), Harbin 150090 (China); Lee Duujong [State Key Laboratory of Urban Water Resource and Environment, Harbin Institute of Technology (SKLUWRE, HIT), Harbin 150090 (China); Department of Chemical Engineering, National Taiwan University, Taipei 10617, Taiwan (China)

    2010-06-15

    Biological removal of sulfide, nitrate and chemical oxygen demand (COD) simultaneously from industrial wastewaters to elementary sulfur (S{sup 0}), N{sub 2}, and CO{sub 2}, or named the denitrifying sulfide (DSR) process, is a cost effective and environmentally friendly treatment process for high strength sulfide and nitrate laden organic wastewater. Kinetic model for the DSR process was established for the first time on the basis of Activated Sludge Model No. 1 (ASM1). The DSR experiments were conducted at influent sulfide concentrations of 200-800 mg/L, whose results calibrate the model parameters. The model correlates well with the DSR process dynamics. By introducing the switch function and the inhibition function, the competition between autotrophic and heterotrophic denitrifiers is quantitatively described and the degree of inhibition of sulfide on heterotrophic denitrifiers is realized. The model output indicates that the DSR reactor can work well at 0.5 < C/S < 3.0 with influent sulfide concentration of 400-1000 mg/L. At >1000 mg/L influent sulfide, however, the DSR system will break down.

  15. Parsimonious Hydrologic and Nitrate Response Models For Silver Springs, Florida

    Klammler, Harald; Yaquian-Luna, Jose Antonio; Jawitz, James W.; Annable, Michael D.; Hatfield, Kirk

    2014-05-01

    Silver Springs with an approximate discharge of 25 m3/sec is one of Florida's first magnitude springs and among the largest springs worldwide. Its 2500-km2 springshed overlies the mostly unconfined Upper Floridan Aquifer. The aquifer is approximately 100 m thick and predominantly consists of porous, fractured and cavernous limestone, which leads to excellent surface drainage properties (no major stream network other than Silver Springs run) and complex groundwater flow patterns through both rock matrix and fast conduits. Over the past few decades, discharge from Silver Springs has been observed to slowly but continuously decline, while nitrate concentrations in the spring water have enormously increased from a background level of 0.05 mg/l to over 1 mg/l. In combination with concurrent increases in algae growth and turbidity, for example, and despite an otherwise relatively stable water quality, this has given rise to concerns about the ecological equilibrium in and near the spring run as well as possible impacts on tourism. The purpose of the present work is to elaborate parsimonious lumped parameter models that may be used by resource managers for evaluating the springshed's hydrologic and nitrate transport responses. Instead of attempting to explicitly consider the complex hydrogeologic features of the aquifer in a typically numerical and / or stochastic approach, we use a transfer function approach wherein input signals (i.e., time series of groundwater recharge and nitrate loading) are transformed into output signals (i.e., time series of spring discharge and spring nitrate concentrations) by some linear and time-invariant law. The dynamic response types and parameters are inferred from comparing input and output time series in frequency domain (e.g., after Fourier transformation). Results are converted into impulse (or step) response functions, which describe at what time and to what magnitude a unitary change in input manifests at the output. For the

  16. Regionalizing global climate models

    Pitman, A.J.; Arneth, A.; Ganzeveld, L.N.

    2012-01-01

    Global climate models simulate the Earth's climate impressively at scales of continents and greater. At these scales, large-scale dynamics and physics largely define the climate. At spatial scales relevant to policy makers, and to impacts and adaptation, many other processes may affect regional and

  17. Global Hail Model

    Werner, A.; Sanderson, M.; Hand, W.; Blyth, A.; Groenemeijer, P.; Kunz, M.; Puskeiler, M.; Saville, G.; Michel, G.

    2012-04-01

    Hail risk models are rare for the insurance industry. This is opposed to the fact that average annual hail losses can be large and hail dominates losses for many motor portfolios worldwide. Insufficient observational data, high spatio-temporal variability and data inhomogenity have hindered creation of credible models so far. In January 2012, a selected group of hail experts met at Willis in London in order to discuss ways to model hail risk at various scales. Discussions aimed at improving our understanding of hail occurrence and severity, and covered recent progress in the understanding of microphysical processes and climatological behaviour and hail vulnerability. The final outcome of the meeting was the formation of a global hail risk model initiative and the launch of a realistic global hail model in order to assess hail loss occurrence and severities for the globe. The following projects will be tackled: Microphysics of Hail and hail severity measures: Understand the physical drivers of hail and hailstone size development in different regions on the globe. Proposed factors include updraft and supercooled liquid water content in the troposphere. What are the thresholds drivers of hail formation around the globe? Hail Climatology: Consider ways to build a realistic global climatological set of hail events based on physical parameters including spatial variations in total availability of moisture, aerosols, among others, and using neural networks. Vulnerability, Exposure, and financial model: Use historical losses and event footprints available in the insurance market to approximate fragility distributions and damage potential for various hail sizes for property, motor, and agricultural business. Propagate uncertainty distributions and consider effects of policy conditions along with aggregating and disaggregating exposure and losses. This presentation provides an overview of ideas and tasks that lead towards a comprehensive global understanding of hail risk for

  18. An updated model for nitrate uptake modelling in plants. I. Functional component: cross-combination of flow–force interpretation of nitrate uptake isotherms, and environmental and in planta regulation of nitrate influx

    Le Deunff, Erwan; Malagoli, Philippe

    2014-01-01

    Background and Aims In spite of major breakthroughs in the last three decades in the identification of root nitrate uptake transporters in plants and the associated regulation of nitrate transport activities, a simplified and operational modelling approach for nitrate uptake is still lacking. This is due mainly to the difficulty in linking the various regulations of nitrate transport that act at different levels of time and on different spatial scales. Methods A cross-combination of a Flow–Force approach applied to nitrate influx isotherms and experimentally determined environmental and in planta regulation is used to model nitrate in oilseed rape, Brassica napus. In contrast to ‘Enzyme–Substrate’ interpretations, a Flow–Force modelling approach considers the root as a single catalytic structure and does not infer hypothetical cellular processes among nitrate transporter activities across cellular layers in the mature roots. In addition, this approach accounts for the driving force on ion transport based on the gradient of electrochemical potential, which is more appropriate from a thermodynamic viewpoint. Key Results and Conclusions Use of a Flow–Force formalism on nitrate influx isotherms leads to the development of a new conceptual mechanistic basis to model more accurately N uptake by a winter oilseed rape crop under field conditions during the whole growth cycle. This forms the functional component of a proposed new structure–function mechanistic model of N uptake. PMID:24638820

  19. Application of the new ICRP respiratory tract model to inhaled plutonium nitrate using experimental biokinetic data

    Birchall, A.; Bailey, M.R.; Jarvis, N.S. [National Radiological Protection Board, Chilton (United Kingdom)

    1995-12-31

    This paper describes the new ICRP respiratory tract model with particular reference to inhaled plutonium nitrate. The model is used to determine the absorption rates to blood for plutonium nitrate which when combined with the plutonium excretion functions were used to predict urinary excretion in man. The implications of the new model for radiological protection are discussed. (UK).

  20. MODELING NITRATE CONCENTRATION IN GROUND WATER USING REGRESSION AND NEURAL NETWORKS

    Ramasamy, Nacha; Krishnan, Palaniappa; Bernard, John C.; Ritter, William F.

    2003-01-01

    Nitrate concentration in ground water is a major problem in specific agricultural areas. Using regression and neural networks, this study models nitrate concentration in ground water as a function of iron concentration in ground water, season and distance of the well from a poultry house. Results from both techniques are comparable and show that the distance of the well from a poultry house has a significant effect on nitrate concentration in groundwater.

  1. Integrated modelling of crop production and nitrate leaching with the Daisy model

    Manevski, Kiril; Børgesen, Christen Duus; Li, Xiaoxin

    2016-01-01

    An integrated modelling strategy was designed and applied to the Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere Transfer model Daisy for simulation of crop production and nitrate leaching under pedo-climatic and agronomic environment different than that of model original parameterisation. The points of significance...

  2. The Global Flood Model

    Williams, P.; Huddelston, M.; Michel, G.; Thompson, S.; Heynert, K.; Pickering, C.; Abbott Donnelly, I.; Fewtrell, T.; Galy, H.; Sperna Weiland, F.; Winsemius, H.; Weerts, A.; Nixon, S.; Davies, P.; Schiferli, D.

    2012-04-01

    Recently, a Global Flood Model (GFM) initiative has been proposed by Willis, UK Met Office, Esri, Deltares and IBM. The idea is to create a global community platform that enables better understanding of the complexities of flood risk assessment to better support the decisions, education and communication needed to mitigate flood risk. The GFM will provide tools for assessing the risk of floods, for devising mitigation strategies such as land-use changes and infrastructure improvements, and for enabling effective pre- and post-flood event response. The GFM combines humanitarian and commercial motives. It will benefit: - The public, seeking to preserve personal safety and property; - State and local governments, seeking to safeguard economic activity, and improve resilience; - NGOs, similarly seeking to respond proactively to flood events; - The insurance sector, seeking to understand and price flood risk; - Large corporations, seeking to protect global operations and supply chains. The GFM is an integrated and transparent set of modules, each composed of models and data. For each module, there are two core elements: a live "reference version" (a worked example) and a framework of specifications, which will allow development of alternative versions. In the future, users will be able to work with the reference version or substitute their own models and data. If these meet the specification for the relevant module, they will interoperate with the rest of the GFM. Some "crowd-sourced" modules could even be accredited and published to the wider GFM community. Our intent is to build on existing public, private and academic work, improve local adoption, and stimulate the development of multiple - but compatible - alternatives, so strengthening mankind's ability to manage flood impacts. The GFM is being developed and managed by a non-profit organization created for the purpose. The business model will be inspired from open source software (eg Linux): - for non-profit usage

  3. Global Volcano Model

    Sparks, R. S. J.; Loughlin, S. C.; Cottrell, E.; Valentine, G.; Newhall, C.; Jolly, G.; Papale, P.; Takarada, S.; Crosweller, S.; Nayembil, M.; Arora, B.; Lowndes, J.; Connor, C.; Eichelberger, J.; Nadim, F.; Smolka, A.; Michel, G.; Muir-Wood, R.; Horwell, C.

    2012-04-01

    Over 600 million people live close enough to active volcanoes to be affected when they erupt. Volcanic eruptions cause loss of life, significant economic losses and severe disruption to people's lives, as highlighted by the recent eruption of Mount Merapi in Indonesia. The eruption of Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland in 2010 illustrated the potential of even small eruptions to have major impact on the modern world through disruption of complex critical infrastructure and business. The effects in the developing world on economic growth and development can be severe. There is evidence that large eruptions can cause a change in the earth's climate for several years afterwards. Aside from meteor impact and possibly an extreme solar event, very large magnitude explosive volcanic eruptions may be the only natural hazard that could cause a global catastrophe. GVM is a growing international collaboration that aims to create a sustainable, accessible information platform on volcanic hazard and risk. We are designing and developing an integrated database system of volcanic hazards, vulnerability and exposure with internationally agreed metadata standards. GVM will establish methodologies for analysis of the data (eg vulnerability indices) to inform risk assessment, develop complementary hazards models and create relevant hazards and risk assessment tools. GVM will develop the capability to anticipate future volcanism and its consequences. NERC is funding the start-up of this initiative for three years from November 2011. GVM builds directly on the VOGRIPA project started as part of the GRIP (Global Risk Identification Programme) in 2004 under the auspices of the World Bank and UN. Major international initiatives and partners such as the Smithsonian Institution - Global Volcanism Program, State University of New York at Buffalo - VHub, Earth Observatory of Singapore - WOVOdat and many others underpin GVM.

  4. Modeling nitrate-nitrogen load reduction strategies for the des moines river, iowa using SWAT

    Schilling, K.E.; Wolter, C.F.

    2009-01-01

    The Des Moines River that drains a watershed of 16,175 km2 in portions of Iowa and Minnesota is impaired for nitrate-nitrogen (nitrate) due to concentrations that exceed regulatory limits for public water supplies. The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to model streamflow and nitrate loads and evaluate a suite of basin-wide changes and targeting configurations to potentially reduce nitrate loads in the river. The SWAT model comprised 173 subbasins and 2,516 hydrologic response units and included point and nonpoint nitrogen sources. The model was calibrated for an 11-year period and three basin-wide and four targeting strategies were evaluated. Results indicated that nonpoint sources accounted for 95% of the total nitrate export. Reduction in fertilizer applications from 170 to 50 kg/ha achieved the 38% reduction in nitrate loads, exceeding the 34% reduction required. In terms of targeting, the most efficient load reductions occurred when fertilizer applications were reduced in subbasins nearest the watershed outlet. The greatest load reduction for the area of land treated was associated with reducing loads from 55 subbasins with the highest nitrate loads, achieving a 14% reduction in nitrate loads achieved by reducing applications on 30% of the land area. SWAT model results provide much needed guidance on how to begin implementing load reduction strategies most efficiently in the Des Moines River watershed. ?? 2009 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

  5. Modeling nitrate-nitrogen load reduction strategies for the Des Moines River, Iowa using SWAT.

    Schilling, Keith E; Wolter, Calvin F

    2009-10-01

    The Des Moines River that drains a watershed of 16,175 km(2) in portions of Iowa and Minnesota is impaired for nitrate-nitrogen (nitrate) due to concentrations that exceed regulatory limits for public water supplies. The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to model streamflow and nitrate loads and evaluate a suite of basin-wide changes and targeting configurations to potentially reduce nitrate loads in the river. The SWAT model comprised 173 subbasins and 2,516 hydrologic response units and included point and nonpoint nitrogen sources. The model was calibrated for an 11-year period and three basin-wide and four targeting strategies were evaluated. Results indicated that nonpoint sources accounted for 95% of the total nitrate export. Reduction in fertilizer applications from 170 to 50 kg/ha achieved the 38% reduction in nitrate loads, exceeding the 34% reduction required. In terms of targeting, the most efficient load reductions occurred when fertilizer applications were reduced in subbasins nearest the watershed outlet. The greatest load reduction for the area of land treated was associated with reducing loads from 55 subbasins with the highest nitrate loads, achieving a 14% reduction in nitrate loads achieved by reducing applications on 30% of the land area. SWAT model results provide much needed guidance on how to begin implementing load reduction strategies most efficiently in the Des Moines River watershed.

  6. Comparative modelling and molecular docking of nitrate reductase from Bacillus weihenstephanensis (DS45

    R. Seenivasagan

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Nitrate reductase catalyses the oxidation of NAD(PH and the reduction of nitrate to nitrite. NR serves as a central point for the integration of metabolic pathways by governing the flux of reduced nitrogen through several regulatory mechanisms in plants, algae and fungi. Bacteria express nitrate reductases that convert nitrate to nitrite, but mammals lack these specific enzymes. The microbial nitrate reductase reduces toxic compounds to nontoxic compounds with the help of NAD(PH. In the present study, our results revealed that Bacillus weihenstephanensis expresses a nitrate reductase enzyme, which was made to generate the 3D structure of the enzyme. Six different modelling servers, namely Phyre2, RaptorX, M4T Server, HHpred, SWISS MODEL and Mod Web, were used for comparative modelling of the structure. The model was validated with standard parameters (PROCHECK and Verify 3D. This study will be useful in the functional characterization of the nitrate reductase enzyme and its docking with nitrate molecules, as well as for use with autodocking.

  7. Fertilizer Induced Nitrate Pollution in RCW: Calibration of the DNDC Model

    El Hailouch, E.; Hornberger, G.; Crane, J. W.

    2012-12-01

    Fertilizer is widely used among urban and suburban households due to the socially driven attention of homeowners to lawn appearance. With high nitrogen content, fertilizer considerably impacts the environment through the emission of the highly potent greenhouse gas nitrous oxide and the leaching of nitrate. Nitrate leaching is significantly important because fertilizer sourced nitrate that is partially leached into soil causes groundwater pollution. In an effort to model the effect of fertilizer application on the environment, the geochemical DeNitrification-DeComposition model (DNDC) was previously developed to quantitatively measure the effects of fertilizer use. The purpose of this study is to use this model more effectively on a large scale through a measurement based calibration. For this reason, leaching was measured and studied on 12 sites in the Richland Creek Watershed (RCW). Information about the fertilization and irrigation regimes of these sites was collected, along with lysimeter readings that gave nitrate fluxes in the soil. A study of the amount and variation in nitrate leaching with respect to the varying geographical locations, time of the year, and fertilization and irrigation regimes has lead to a better understanding of the driving forces behind nitrate leaching. Quantifying the influence of each of these parameters allows for a more accurate calibration of the model thus permitting use that extends beyond the RCW. Measurement of nitrate leaching on a statewide or nationwide level in turn will help guide efforts in the reduction of groundwater pollution caused by fertilizer.

  8. Global Metabolic Regulation of the Snow Alga Chlamydomonas nivalis in Response to Nitrate or Phosphate Deprivation by a Metabolome Profile Analysis.

    Lu, Na; Chen, Jun-Hui; Wei, Dong; Chen, Feng; Chen, Gu

    2016-05-10

    In the present work, Chlamydomonas nivalis, a model species of snow algae, was used to illustrate the metabolic regulation mechanism of microalgae under nutrient deprivation stress. The seed culture was inoculated into the medium without nitrate or phosphate to reveal the cell responses by a metabolome profile analysis using gas chromatography time-of-flight mass spectrometry (GC/TOF-MS). One hundred and seventy-one of the identified metabolites clustered into five groups by the orthogonal partial least squares discriminant analysis (OPLS-DA) model. Among them, thirty of the metabolites in the nitrate-deprived group and thirty-nine of the metabolites in the phosphate-deprived group were selected and identified as "responding biomarkers" by this metabolomic approach. A significant change in the abundance of biomarkers indicated that the enhanced biosynthesis of carbohydrates and fatty acids coupled with the decreased biosynthesis of amino acids, N-compounds and organic acids in all the stress groups. The up- or down-regulation of these biomarkers in the metabolic network provides new insights into the global metabolic regulation and internal relationships within amino acid and fatty acid synthesis, glycolysis, the tricarboxylic acid cycle (TCA) and the Calvin cycle in the snow alga under nitrate or phosphate deprivation stress.

  9. Three model systems measure oxidation/nitration damage caused ...

    Unknown

    caused by peroxynitrite ... (OONO–) or its carbon dioxide derivatives cause oxidation/nitration and hence mutation to various body poly- mers e.g. .... The work described in this paper is quite brief due to ex- ... exact way to balance the dose of antioxidants in mixtures ... tralizing conditions the half-life of OONO– is less than.

  10. The Open Global Glacier Model

    Marzeion, B.; Maussion, F.

    2017-12-01

    Mountain glaciers are one of the few remaining sub-systems of the global climate system for which no globally applicable, open source, community-driven model exists. Notable examples from the ice sheet community include the Parallel Ice Sheet Model or Elmer/Ice. While the atmospheric modeling community has a long tradition of sharing models (e.g. the Weather Research and Forecasting model) or comparing them (e.g. the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project or CMIP), recent initiatives originating from the glaciological community show a new willingness to better coordinate global research efforts following the CMIP example (e.g. the Glacier Model Intercomparison Project or the Glacier Ice Thickness Estimation Working Group). In the recent past, great advances have been made in the global availability of data and methods relevant for glacier modeling, spanning glacier outlines, automatized glacier centerline identification, bed rock inversion methods, and global topographic data sets. Taken together, these advances now allow the ice dynamics of glaciers to be modeled on a global scale, provided that adequate modeling platforms are available. Here, we present the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM), developed to provide a global scale, modular, and open source numerical model framework for consistently simulating past and future global scale glacier change. Global not only in the sense of leading to meaningful results for all glaciers combined, but also for any small ensemble of glaciers, e.g. at the headwater catchment scale. Modular to allow combinations of different approaches to the representation of ice flow and surface mass balance, enabling a new kind of model intercomparison. Open source so that the code can be read and used by anyone and so that new modules can be added and discussed by the community, following the principles of open governance. Consistent in order to provide uncertainty measures at all realizable scales.

  11. Global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the nitrate leaching and crop yield simulation under different water and nitrogen management practices

    Agricultural system models have become important tools in studying water and nitrogen (N) dynamics, as well as crop growth, under different management practices. Complexity in input parameters often leads to significant uncertainty when simulating dynamic processes such as nitrate leaching or crop y...

  12. Global Delivery Models

    Manning, Stephan; Møller Larsen, Marcus; Bharati, Pratyush

    -zone spread allowing for 24/7 service delivery and access to resources. Based on comprehensive data we show that providers are likely to establish GDM configurations when clients value access to globally distributed talent pools and speed of service delivery, and in particular when services are highly...

  13. Global Delivery Models

    Manning, Stephan; Møller Larsen, Marcus; Bharati, Pratyush M.

    2015-01-01

    antecedents and contingencies of setting up GDM structures. Based on comprehensive data we show that providers are likely to establish GDM location configurations when clients value access to globally distributed talent and speed of service delivery, in particular when services are highly commoditized...

  14. Modeled aerosol nitrate formation pathways during wintertime in the Great Lakes region of North America

    Kim, Yoo Jung; Spak, Scott N.; Carmichael, Gregory R.; Riemer, Nicole; Stanier, Charles O.

    2014-11-01

    Episodic wintertime particle pollution by ammonium nitrate is an important air quality concern across the Midwest U.S. Understanding and accurately forecasting PM2.5 episodes are complicated by multiple pathways for aerosol nitrate formation, each with uncertain rate parameters. Here, the Community Multiscale Air Quality model (CMAQ) simulated regional atmospheric nitrate budgets during the 2009 LADCO Winter Nitrate Study, using integrated process rate (IPR) and integrated reaction rate (IRR) tools to quantify relevant processes. Total nitrate production contributing to PM2.5 episodes is a regional phenomenon, with peak production over the Ohio River Valley and southern Great Lakes. Total nitrate production in the lower troposphere is attributed to three pathways, with 57% from heterogeneous conversion of N2O5, 28% from the reaction of OH and NO2, and 15% from homogeneous conversion of N2O5. TNO3 formation rates varied day-to-day and on synoptic timescales. Rate-limited production does not follow urban-rural gradients and NOx emissions due, to counterbalancing of urban enhancement in daytime HNO3 production with nocturnal reductions. Concentrations of HNO3 and N2O5 and nighttime TNO3 formation rates have maxima aloft (100-500 m), leading to net total nitrate vertical flux during episodes, with substantial vertical gradients in nitrate partitioning. Uncertainties in all three pathways are relevant to wintertime aerosol modeling and highlight the importance of interacting transport and chemistry processes during ammonium nitrate episodes, as well as the need for additional constraint on the system through field and laboratory experiments.

  15. A phenomenological model for improving understanding of the ammonium nitrate agglomeration process

    Videla Leiva Alvaro

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Ammonium nitrate is intensively used as explosive in the mining industry as the main component of ANFO. The ammonium nitrate is known to be a strong hygroscopic crystal matter which generates problems due to the creation of water bridges between crystals leading later to nucleation and crystallization forming an agglomerated solid cake. The agglomeration process damages the ammonium nitrate performance and is undesirable. Usually either organic or inorganic coatings are used to control agglomeration. In the present work a characterization method of humidity adsorption of the ammonium nitrate crystal was performed under laboratory conditions. Several samples were exposed into a defined humidity in a controlled chamber during 5 hours after which the samples were tested to measure agglomeration as the resistance force to compression. A clear relation was found between coating protection level, humidity and agglomeration. Agglomeration can be then predicted by a phenomenological model based of combination of the mono-layer BET adsorption and CNT nucleation models.

  16. Regional planning and modelling of nitrate leaching in Denmark using DaisyGIS

    Veihe, Anita; Jensen, Niels H.; Boegh, Eva

    Spatial deterministic simulation models such as DaisyGIS are increasingly being used for decision-making in European planning and there is a growing interest in using DaisyGIS as an administrative tool at the regional level in Denmark. This study evaluates the use of Daisy-GIS for nitrate leaching...... assessments based on nitrate leaching experiments carried out at the Marbjerg experimental site at Roskilde University....

  17. Global nuclear material control model

    Dreicer, J.S.; Rutherford, D.A.

    1996-01-01

    The nuclear danger can be reduced by a system for global management, protection, control, and accounting as part of a disposition program for special nuclear materials. The development of an international fissile material management and control regime requires conceptual research supported by an analytical and modeling tool that treats the nuclear fuel cycle as a complete system. Such a tool must represent the fundamental data, information, and capabilities of the fuel cycle including an assessment of the global distribution of military and civilian fissile material inventories, a representation of the proliferation pertinent physical processes, and a framework supportive of national or international perspective. They have developed a prototype global nuclear material management and control systems analysis capability, the Global Nuclear Material Control (GNMC) model. The GNMC model establishes the framework for evaluating the global production, disposition, and safeguards and security requirements for fissile nuclear material

  18. Development of Operation Management Model of Groundwater According to Nitrate Contamination

    Elahe Pourfarahabadi

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Nitrate is one of the most important groundwater pollutants with such different sources as chemical fertilizers, pesticides, or domestic and industrial wastewater. In this research, the optimal operation of groundwater wells in aquifers with nitrate pollution is investigated using simulation and optimization techniques. For the simulation part, an artificial neural network (ANN model is developed, and for the optimization model, the particle swarm optimization (PSO is used. Considering the high nitrate concentration in Karaj area and its increase in recent years, the northern part of this aquifer is selected as a case study to apply the proposed methodology. A seasonal ANN model is developed with input layers including well discharge in the current and previous seasons, nitrate concentration in the previous season, aquifer thickness, and well coordinates, all selected based on sensitivity analysis. The results of PSO algorithm shows that nitrate concentration can be controlled by increasing or decreasing well discharge in different zones. Therefore, it is possible to reduce nitrate concentration in critical areas by changing the spatial distribution of groundwater extractions in different zones keeping the total discharge constant.

  19. Topsoil N-budget model in orchard farming to evaluate groundwater nitrate contamination

    Wijayanti, Yureana; Budihardjo, Kadarwati; Sakamoto, Yasushi; Setyandito, Oki

    2017-12-01

    A small scale field research was conducted in an orchard farming area in Kofu, Japan, where nitrate contamination was found in groundwater. The purpose of assessing the leaching of nitrate in this study is to understand the transformation and transport process of N-source in topsoil that leads to nitrate contamination of groundwater. In order to calculate N-budget in the soil, the model was utilized to predict the nitrogen leaching. In this res earch, the N-budget model was modified to evaluate influence of precipitation and application pattern of fertilizer and manure compost. The result shows that at the time before the addition of manure compost and fertilizer, about 75% of fertilizer leach from topsoil. Every month, the average remaining nitrate in soil from fertilizer and manure compost are 22% and 50%, respectively. The accumulation of this monthly manure compost nitrate, which stored in soil, should be carefully monitored. It could become the potential source of nitrate leaching to groundwater in the future.

  20. Improved daily precipitation nitrate and ammonium concentration models for the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

    Grimm, J.W.; Lynch, J.A.

    2005-01-01

    Daily precipitation nitrate and ammonium concentration models were developed for the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (USA) using a linear least-squares regression approach and precipitation chemistry data from 29 National Atmospheric Deposition Program/National Trends Network (NADP/NTN) sites. Only weekly samples that comprised a single precipitation event were used in model development. The most significant variables in both ammonium and nitrate models included: precipitation volume, the number of days since the last event, a measure of seasonality, latitude, and the proportion of land within 8 km covered by forest or devoted to industry and transportation. Additional variables included in the nitrate model were the proportion of land within 0.8 km covered by water and/or forest. Local and regional ammonia and nitrogen oxide emissions were not as well correlated as land cover. Modeled concentrations compared very well with event chemistry data collected at six NADP/AirMoN sites within the Chesapeake Bay Watershed. Wet deposition estimates were also consistent with observed deposition at selected sites. Accurately describing the spatial distribution of precipitation volume throughout the watershed is important in providing critical estimates of wet-fall deposition of ammonium and nitrate. - A linear least-squares regression approach was used to develop daily precipitation nitrate and ammonium concentration models for the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

  1. Agriculture and groundwater nitrate contamination in the Seine basin. The STICS-MODCOU modelling chain

    Ledoux, E.; Gomez, E.; Monget, J.M.; Viavattene, C.; Viennot, P.; Ducharne, A.; Benoit, M.; Mignolet, C.; Schott, C.; Mary, B.

    2007-01-01

    A software package is presented here to predict the fate of nitrogen fertilizers and the transport of nitrate from the rooting zone of agricultural areas to surface water and groundwater in the Seine basin, taking into account the long residence times of water and nitrate in the unsaturated and aquifer systems. Information on pedological characteristics, land use and farming practices is used to determine the spatial units to be considered. These data are converted into input data for the crop model STICS which simulates the water and nitrogen balances in the soil-plant system with a daily time-step. A spatial application of STICS has been derived at the catchment scale which computes the water and nitrate fluxes at the bottom of the rooting zone. These fluxes are integrated into a surface and groundwater coupled model MODCOU which calculates the daily water balance in the hydrological system, the flow in the rivers and the piezometric variations in the aquifers, using standard climatic data (rainfall, PET). The transport of nitrate and the evolution of nitrate contamination in groundwater and to rivers is computed by the model NEWSAM. This modelling chain is a valuable tool to predict the evolution of crop productivity and nitrate contamination according to various scenarios modifying farming practices and/or climatic changes. Data for the period 1970-2000 are used to simulate the past evolution of nitrogen contamination. The method has been validated using available data bases of nitrate concentrations in the three main aquifers of the Paris basin (Oligocene, Eocene and chalk). The approach has then been used to predict the future evolution of nitrogen contamination up to 2015. A statistical approach allowed estimating the probability of transgression of different concentration thresholds in various areas in the basin. The model is also used to evaluate the cost of the damage resulting of the treatment of drinking water at the scale of a groundwater management

  2. Agriculture and groundwater nitrate contamination in the Seine basin. The STICS-MODCOU modelling chain

    Ledoux, E. [Centre de Geosciences, ENSMP, UMR Sisyphe, Fontainebleau (France)]. E-mail: emmanuel.ledoux@ensmp.fr; Gomez, E. [Centre de Geosciences, ENSMP, UMR Sisyphe, Fontainebleau (France); Monget, J.M. [Centre de Geosciences, ENSMP, UMR Sisyphe, Fontainebleau (France); Viavattene, C. [Centre de Geosciences, ENSMP, UMR Sisyphe, Fontainebleau (France); Viennot, P. [Centre de Geosciences, ENSMP, UMR Sisyphe, Fontainebleau (France); Ducharne, A. [Laboratoire Sisyphe, CNRS/Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris (France); Benoit, M. [INRA, Station de Recherche SAD, 662 avenue Louis Buffet, 88500 Mirecourt (France); Mignolet, C. [INRA, Station de Recherche SAD, 662 avenue Louis Buffet, 88500 Mirecourt (France); Schott, C. [INRA, Station de Recherche SAD, 662 avenue Louis Buffet, 88500 Mirecourt (France); Mary, B. [INRA, Unite d' Agronomie Laon-Reims-Mons, Laon (France)

    2007-04-01

    A software package is presented here to predict the fate of nitrogen fertilizers and the transport of nitrate from the rooting zone of agricultural areas to surface water and groundwater in the Seine basin, taking into account the long residence times of water and nitrate in the unsaturated and aquifer systems. Information on pedological characteristics, land use and farming practices is used to determine the spatial units to be considered. These data are converted into input data for the crop model STICS which simulates the water and nitrogen balances in the soil-plant system with a daily time-step. A spatial application of STICS has been derived at the catchment scale which computes the water and nitrate fluxes at the bottom of the rooting zone. These fluxes are integrated into a surface and groundwater coupled model MODCOU which calculates the daily water balance in the hydrological system, the flow in the rivers and the piezometric variations in the aquifers, using standard climatic data (rainfall, PET). The transport of nitrate and the evolution of nitrate contamination in groundwater and to rivers is computed by the model NEWSAM. This modelling chain is a valuable tool to predict the evolution of crop productivity and nitrate contamination according to various scenarios modifying farming practices and/or climatic changes. Data for the period 1970-2000 are used to simulate the past evolution of nitrogen contamination. The method has been validated using available data bases of nitrate concentrations in the three main aquifers of the Paris basin (Oligocene, Eocene and chalk). The approach has then been used to predict the future evolution of nitrogen contamination up to 2015. A statistical approach allowed estimating the probability of transgression of different concentration thresholds in various areas in the basin. The model is also used to evaluate the cost of the damage resulting of the treatment of drinking water at the scale of a groundwater management

  3. Can nitrate contaminated groundwater be remediated by optimizing flood irrigation rate with high nitrate water in a desert oasis using the WHCNS model?

    Liang, Hao; Qi, Zhiming; Hu, Kelin; Prasher, Shiv O; Zhang, Yuanpei

    2016-10-01

    Nitrate contamination of groundwater is an environmental concern in intensively cultivated desert oases where this polluted groundwater is in turn used as a major irrigation water resource. However, nitrate fluxes from root zone to groundwater are difficult to monitor in this complex system. The objectives of this study were to validate and apply the WHCNS (soil Water Heat Carbon Nitrogen Simulator) model to simulate water drainage and nitrate leaching under different irrigation and nitrogen (N) management practices, and to assess the utilization of groundwater nitrate as an approach to remediate nitrate contaminated groundwater while maintain crop yield. A two-year field experiment was conducted in a corn field irrigated with high nitrate groundwater (20 mg N L(-1)) in Alxa, Inner Mongolia, China. The experiment consisted of two irrigation treatments (Istd, standard, 750 mm per season; Icsv, conservation, 570 mm per season) factorially combined with two N fertilization treatments (Nstd, standard, 138 kg ha(-1); Ncsv, conservation, 92 kg ha(-1)). The validated results showed that the WHCNS model simulated values of crop dry matter, yield, soil water content and soil N concentration in soil profile all agreed well with the observed values. Compared to the standard water management (Istd), the simulated drainage and nitrate leaching decreased about 65% and 59%, respectively, under the conservation water management (Icsv). Nearly 55% of input N was lost by leaching under the IstdNstd and IstdNcsv treatments, compared to only 26% under the IcsvNstd and IcsvNcsv treatments. Simulations with more than 240 scenarios combing different levels of irrigation and fertilization indicated that irrigation was the main reason leading to the high risk of nitrate leaching, and the nitrate in irrigation groundwater can be best utilized without corn yield loss when the total irrigation was reduced from the current 750 mm to 491 mm. This reduced irrigation rate facilitated

  4. Global recovery process of thorium and rare earths in a nitrate medium

    Cailly, F.; Mottot, Y.

    1993-01-01

    The aqueous solution of thorium and rare earth nitrates, obtained by leaching the ore with nitric acid, is extracted by an organic phosphorous compound (phosphate, phosphonate, phosphinate or phosphine oxide) and a cationic extractant chosen among phosphoric acid di-esters. Extraction of thorium and rare earths is possible even in presence of phosphate ions in the aqueous solution. Thorium and rare earths are separated by liquid-liquid extraction of the organic phase

  5. Field Scale Groundwater Nitrate Loading Model for the Central Valley, California, 1945-Current

    Harter, T.; Dzurella, K.; Bell, A.; Kourakos, G.

    2015-12-01

    Anthropogenic groundwater nitrate contamination in the Central Valley aquifer system, California, is widespread, with over 40% of domestic wells in some counties exceeding drinking water standards. Sources of groundwater nitrate include leaky municipal wastewater systems, municipal wastewater recharge, onsite wastewater treatment (septic) systems, atmospheric nitrogen deposition, animal farming, application of organic waste materials (sludge, biosolids, animal manure) to agricultural lands, and synthetic fertilizer. At the site or field scale, nitrogen inputs to the landscape are balanced by plant nitrogen uptake and harvest, atmospheric nitrogen losses, surface runoff of nitrogen, soil nitrogen storage changes, and leaching to groundwater. Irrigated agriculture is a dominant player in the Central Valley nitrogen cycle: The largest nitrogen fluxes are synthetic fertilizer and animal manure applications to cropland, crop nitrogen uptake, and groundwater nitrogen losses. We construct a historic field/parcel scale groundwater nitrogen loading model distinguishing urban and residential areas, individual animal farming areas, leaky wastewater lagoons, and approximately 50 different categories of agricultural crops. For non-agricultural landuses, groundwater nitrate loading is based on reported leaching values, animal population, and human population. For cropland, groundwater nitrate loading is computed from mass balance, taking into account diverse and historically changing management practices between different crops. Groundwater nitrate loading is estimated for 1945 to current. Significant increases in groundwater nitrate loading are associated with the expansion of synthetic fertilizer use in the 1950s to 1970s. Nitrate loading from synthetic fertilizer use has stagnated over the past 20 years due to improvements in nutrient use efficiency. However, an unbroken 60 year exponential increase in dairy production until the late 2000s has significantly impacted the

  6. Comparison of Four Nitrate Removal Kinetic Models in Two Distinct Wetland Restoration Mesocosm Systems

    Tiffany L. Messer

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the study was to determine the kinetic model that best fit observed nitrate removal rates at the mesocosm scale in order to determine ideal loading rates for two future wetland restorations slated to receive pulse flow agricultural drainage water. Four nitrate removal models were investigated: zero order, first order decay, efficiency loss, and Monod. Wetland mesocosms were constructed using the primary soil type (in triplicate at each of the future wetland restoration sites. Eighteen mesocosm experiments were conducted over two years across seasons. Simulated drainage water was loaded into wetlands as batches, with target nitrate-N levels typically observed in agricultural drainage water (between 2.5 and 10 mg L−1. Nitrate-N removal observed during the experiments provided the basis for calibration and validation of the models. When the predictive strength of each of the four models was assessed, results indicated that the efficiency loss and first order decay models provided the strongest agreement between predicted and measured NO3-N removal rates, and the fit between the two models were comparable. Since the predictive power of these two models were similar, the less complicated first order decay model appeared to be the best choice in predicting appropriate loading rates for the future full-scale wetland restorations.

  7. Modeling of critical experiments employing Raschig rings in uranyl nitrate solution

    Tanner, J.E.

    1989-01-01

    Four critical experiments employing borated glass rings in concentrated uranyl nitrate solution yielded k eff higher by 0. 04 when modeled with a flux-weighted, homogenized cross section set than when modeled with discrete rings. k eff varied by 0.014 for a 10% boron uncertainty and by up to 0.04 for a 10% packing fraction uncertainty

  8. The Global Tsunami Model (GTM)

    Lorito, S.; Basili, R.; Harbitz, C. B.; Løvholt, F.; Polet, J.; Thio, H. K.

    2017-12-01

    The tsunamis occurred worldwide in the last two decades have highlighted the need for a thorough understanding of the risk posed by relatively infrequent but often disastrous tsunamis and the importance of a comprehensive and consistent methodology for quantifying the hazard. In the last few years, several methods for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis have been developed and applied to different parts of the world. In an effort to coordinate and streamline these activities and make progress towards implementing the Sendai Framework of Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) we have initiated a Global Tsunami Model (GTM) working group with the aim of i) enhancing our understanding of tsunami hazard and risk on a global scale and developing standards and guidelines for it, ii) providing a portfolio of validated tools for probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessment at a range of scales, and iii) developing a global tsunami hazard reference model. This GTM initiative has grown out of the tsunami component of the Global Assessment of Risk (GAR15), which has resulted in an initial global model of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk. Started as an informal gathering of scientists interested in advancing tsunami hazard analysis, the GTM is currently in the process of being formalized through letters of interest from participating institutions. The initiative has now been endorsed by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) and the World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). We will provide an update on the state of the project and the overall technical framework, and discuss the technical issues that are currently being addressed, including earthquake source recurrence models, the use of aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty, and preliminary results for a probabilistic global hazard assessment, which is an update of the model included in UNISDR GAR15.

  9. Sensitivities in global scale modeling of isoprene

    R. von Kuhlmann

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available A sensitivity study of the treatment of isoprene and related parameters in 3D atmospheric models was conducted using the global model of tropospheric chemistry MATCH-MPIC. A total of twelve sensitivity scenarios which can be grouped into four thematic categories were performed. These four categories consist of simulations with different chemical mechanisms, different assumptions concerning the deposition characteristics of intermediate products, assumptions concerning the nitrates from the oxidation of isoprene and variations of the source strengths. The largest differences in ozone compared to the reference simulation occured when a different isoprene oxidation scheme was used (up to 30-60% or about 10 nmol/mol. The largest differences in the abundance of peroxyacetylnitrate (PAN were found when the isoprene emission strength was reduced by 50% and in tests with increased or decreased efficiency of the deposition of intermediates. The deposition assumptions were also found to have a significant effect on the upper tropospheric HOx production. Different implicit assumptions about the loss of intermediate products were identified as a major reason for the deviations among the tested isoprene oxidation schemes. The total tropospheric burden of O3 calculated in the sensitivity runs is increased compared to the background methane chemistry by 26±9  Tg( O3 from 273 to an average from the sensitivity runs of 299 Tg(O3. % revised Thus, there is a spread of ± 35% of the overall effect of isoprene in the model among the tested scenarios. This range of uncertainty and the much larger local deviations found in the test runs suggest that the treatment of isoprene in global models can only be seen as a first order estimate at present, and points towards specific processes in need of focused future work.

  10. Validation of regression models for nitrate concentrations in the upper groundwater in sandy soils

    Sonneveld, M.P.W.; Brus, D.J.; Roelsma, J.

    2010-01-01

    For Dutch sandy regions, linear regression models have been developed that predict nitrate concentrations in the upper groundwater on the basis of residual nitrate contents in the soil in autumn. The objective of our study was to validate these regression models for one particular sandy region dominated by dairy farming. No data from this area were used for calibrating the regression models. The model was validated by additional probability sampling. This sample was used to estimate errors in 1) the predicted areal fractions where the EU standard of 50 mg l -1 is exceeded for farms with low N surpluses (ALT) and farms with higher N surpluses (REF); 2) predicted cumulative frequency distributions of nitrate concentration for both groups of farms. Both the errors in the predicted areal fractions as well as the errors in the predicted cumulative frequency distributions indicate that the regression models are invalid for the sandy soils of this study area. - This study indicates that linear regression models that predict nitrate concentrations in the upper groundwater using residual soil N contents should be applied with care.

  11. FLUIDIZED BED STEAM REFORMING MINERALIZATION FOR HIGH ORGANIC AND NITRATE WASTE STREAMS FOR THE GLOBAL NUCLEAR ENERGY PARTNERSHIP

    Jantzen, C; Michael Williams, M

    2008-01-11

    Waste streams that may be generated by the Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) Advanced Energy Initiative may contain significant quantities of organics (0-53 wt%) and/or nitrates (0-56 wt%). Decomposition of high nitrate streams requires reducing conditions, e.g. organic additives such as sugar or coal, to reduce the NO{sub x} in the off-gas to N{sub 2} to meet the Clean Air Act (CAA) standards during processing. Thus, organics will be present during waste form stabilization regardless of which GNEP processes are chosen, e.g. organics in the feed or organics for nitrate destruction. High organic containing wastes cannot be stabilized with the existing HLW Best Developed Available Technology (BDAT) which is HLW vitrification (HLVIT) unless the organics are removed by preprocessing. Alternative waste stabilization processes such as Fluidized Bed Steam Reforming (FBSR) operate at moderate temperatures (650-750 C) compared to vitrification (1150-1300 C). FBSR converts organics to CAA compliant gases, creates no secondary liquid waste streams, and creates a stable mineral waste form that is as durable as glass. For application to the high Cs-137 and Sr-90 containing GNEP waste streams a single phase mineralized Cs-mica phase was made by co-reacting illite clay and GNEP simulated waste. The Cs-mica accommodates up to 30% wt% Cs{sub 2}O and all the GNEP waste species, Ba, Sr, Rb including the Cs-137 transmutation to Ba-137. For reference, the cesium mineral pollucite (CsAlSi{sub 2}O{sub 6}), currently being studied for GNEP applications, can only be fabricated at {ge} 1000 C. Pollucite mineralization creates secondary aqueous waste streams and NO{sub x}. Pollucite is not tolerant of high concentrations of Ba, Sr or Rb and forces the divalent species into different mineral host phases. The pollucite can accommodate up to 33% wt% Cs{sub 2}O.

  12. Determination of timescales of nitrate contamination by groundwater age models in a complex aquifer system

    Koh, E. H.; Lee, E.; Kaown, D.; Lee, K. K.; Green, C. T.

    2017-12-01

    Timing and magnitudes of nitrate contamination are determined by various factors like contaminant loading, recharge characteristics and geologic system. Information of an elapsed time since recharged water traveling to a certain outlet location, which is defined as groundwater age, can provide indirect interpretation related to the hydrologic characteristics of the aquifer system. There are three major methods (apparent ages, lumped parameter model, and numerical model) to date groundwater ages, which differently characterize groundwater mixing resulted by various groundwater flow pathways in a heterogeneous aquifer system. Therefore, in this study, we compared the three age models in a complex aquifer system by using observed age tracer data and reconstructed history of nitrate contamination by long-term source loading. The 3H-3He and CFC-12 apparent ages, which did not consider the groundwater mixing, estimated the most delayed response time and a highest period of the nitrate loading had not reached yet. However, the lumped parameter model could generate more recent loading response than the apparent ages and the peak loading period influenced the water quality. The numerical model could delineate various groundwater mixing components and its different impacts on nitrate dynamics in the complex aquifer system. The different age estimation methods lead to variations in the estimated contaminant loading history, in which the discrepancy in the age estimation was dominantly observed in the complex aquifer system.

  13. Improved daily precipitation nitrate and ammonium concentration models for the Chesapeake Bay Watershed.

    Grimm, J W; Lynch, J A

    2005-06-01

    Daily precipitation nitrate and ammonium concentration models were developed for the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (USA) using a linear least-squares regression approach and precipitation chemistry data from 29 National Atmospheric Deposition Program/National Trends Network (NADP/NTN) sites. Only weekly samples that comprised a single precipitation event were used in model development. The most significant variables in both ammonium and nitrate models included: precipitation volume, the number of days since the last event, a measure of seasonality, latitude, and the proportion of land within 8km covered by forest or devoted to industry and transportation. Additional variables included in the nitrate model were the proportion of land within 0.8km covered by water and/or forest. Local and regional ammonia and nitrogen oxide emissions were not as well correlated as land cover. Modeled concentrations compared very well with event chemistry data collected at six NADP/AirMoN sites within the Chesapeake Bay Watershed. Wet deposition estimates were also consistent with observed deposition at selected sites. Accurately describing the spatial distribution of precipitation volume throughout the watershed is important in providing critical estimates of wet-fall deposition of ammonium and nitrate.

  14. Modeling of 1-D nitrate transport in single layer soils | Dike | Journal ...

    The transport of nitrate in laboratory single soil columns of sand, laterite and clay were investigated after 21 days. The 1-D contaminant transport model by Notodarmojo et al (1991) for single layer soils were calibrated and verified using field data collected from a refuse dump site at avu, owerri, Imo state. The experimental ...

  15. Global scale groundwater flow model

    Sutanudjaja, Edwin; de Graaf, Inge; van Beek, Ludovicus; Bierkens, Marc

    2013-04-01

    As the world's largest accessible source of freshwater, groundwater plays vital role in satisfying the basic needs of human society. It serves as a primary source of drinking water and supplies water for agricultural and industrial activities. During times of drought, groundwater sustains water flows in streams, rivers, lakes and wetlands, and thus supports ecosystem habitat and biodiversity, while its large natural storage provides a buffer against water shortages. Yet, the current generation of global scale hydrological models does not include a groundwater flow component that is a crucial part of the hydrological cycle and allows the simulation of groundwater head dynamics. In this study we present a steady-state MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh, 1988) groundwater model on the global scale at 5 arc-minutes resolution. Aquifer schematization and properties of this groundwater model were developed from available global lithological model (e.g. Dürr et al., 2005; Gleeson et al., 2010; Hartmann and Moorsdorff, in press). We force the groundwtaer model with the output from the large-scale hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB (van Beek et al., 2011), specifically the long term net groundwater recharge and average surface water levels derived from routed channel discharge. We validated calculated groundwater heads and depths with available head observations, from different regions, including the North and South America and Western Europe. Our results show that it is feasible to build a relatively simple global scale groundwater model using existing information, and estimate water table depths within acceptable accuracy in many parts of the world.

  16. Integrated modelling of crop production and nitrate leaching with the Daisy model.

    Manevski, Kiril; Børgesen, Christen D; Li, Xiaoxin; Andersen, Mathias N; Abrahamsen, Per; Hu, Chunsheng; Hansen, Søren

    2016-01-01

    An integrated modelling strategy was designed and applied to the Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere Transfer model Daisy for simulation of crop production and nitrate leaching under pedo-climatic and agronomic environment different than that of model original parameterisation. The points of significance and caution in the strategy are: •Model preparation should include field data in detail due to the high complexity of the soil and the crop processes simulated with process-based model, and should reflect the study objectives. Inclusion of interactions between parameters in a sensitivity analysis results in better account for impacts on outputs of measured variables.•Model evaluation on several independent data sets increases robustness, at least on coarser time scales such as month or year. It produces a valuable platform for adaptation of the model to new crops or for the improvement of the existing parameters set. On daily time scale, validation for highly dynamic variables such as soil water transport remains challenging. •Model application is demonstrated with relevance for scientists and regional managers. The integrated modelling strategy is applicable for other process-based models similar to Daisy. It is envisaged that the strategy establishes model capability as a useful research/decision-making, and it increases knowledge transferability, reproducibility and traceability.

  17. Modeling nitrate at domestic and public-supply well depths in the Central Valley, California

    Nolan, Bernard T.; Gronberg, JoAnn M.; Faunt, Claudia C.; Eberts, Sandra M.; Belitz, Ken

    2014-01-01

    Aquifer vulnerability models were developed to map groundwater nitrate concentration at domestic and public-supply well depths in the Central Valley, California. We compared three modeling methods for ability to predict nitrate concentration >4 mg/L: logistic regression (LR), random forest classification (RFC), and random forest regression (RFR). All three models indicated processes of nitrogen fertilizer input at the land surface, transmission through coarse-textured, well-drained soils, and transport in the aquifer to the well screen. The total percent correct predictions were similar among the three models (69–82%), but RFR had greater sensitivity (84% for shallow wells and 51% for deep wells). The results suggest that RFR can better identify areas with high nitrate concentration but that LR and RFC may better describe bulk conditions in the aquifer. A unique aspect of the modeling approach was inclusion of outputs from previous, physically based hydrologic and textural models as predictor variables, which were important to the models. Vertical water fluxes in the aquifer and percent coarse material above the well screen were ranked moderately high-to-high in the RFR models, and the average vertical water flux during the irrigation season was highly significant (p < 0.0001) in logistic regression.

  18. Modeling nitrate at domestic and public-supply well depths in the Central Valley, California

    Nolan, Bernard T.; Gronberg, JoAnn M.; Faunt, Claudia C.; Eberts, Sandra M.; Belitz, Ken

    2014-01-01

    Aquifer vulnerability models were developed to map groundwater nitrate concentration at domestic and public-supply well depths in the Central Valley, California. We compared three modeling methods for ability to predict nitrate concentration >4 mg/L: logistic regression (LR), random forest classification (RFC), and random forest regression (RFR). All three models indicated processes of nitrogen fertilizer input at the land surface, transmission through coarse-textured, well-drained soils, and transport in the aquifer to the well screen. The total percent correct predictions were similar among the three models (69–82%), but RFR had greater sensitivity (84% for shallow wells and 51% for deep wells). The results suggest that RFR can better identify areas with high nitrate concentration but that LR and RFC may better describe bulk conditions in the aquifer. A unique aspect of the modeling approach was inclusion of outputs from previous, physically based hydrologic and textural models as predictor variables, which were important to the models. Vertical water fluxes in the aquifer and percent coarse material above the well screen were ranked moderately high-to-high in the RFR models, and the average vertical water flux during the irrigation season was highly significant (p in logistic regression.

  19. GEM - The Global Earthquake Model

    Smolka, A.

    2009-04-01

    Over 500,000 people died in the last decade due to earthquakes and tsunamis, mostly in the developing world, where the risk is increasing due to rapid population growth. In many seismic regions, no hazard and risk models exist, and even where models do exist, they are intelligible only by experts, or available only for commercial purposes. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) answers the need for an openly accessible risk management tool. GEM is an internationally sanctioned public private partnership initiated by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) which will establish an authoritative standard for calculating and communicating earthquake hazard and risk, and will be designed to serve as the critical instrument to support decisions and actions that reduce earthquake losses worldwide. GEM will integrate developments on the forefront of scientific and engineering knowledge of earthquakes, at global, regional and local scale. The work is organized in three modules: hazard, risk, and socio-economic impact. The hazard module calculates probabilities of earthquake occurrence and resulting shaking at any given location. The risk module calculates fatalities, injuries, and damage based on expected shaking, building vulnerability, and the distribution of population and of exposed values and facilities. The socio-economic impact module delivers tools for making educated decisions to mitigate and manage risk. GEM will be a versatile online tool, with open source code and a map-based graphical interface. The underlying data will be open wherever possible, and its modular input and output will be adapted to multiple user groups: scientists and engineers, risk managers and decision makers in the public and private sectors, and the public-at- large. GEM will be the first global model for seismic risk assessment at a national and regional scale, and aims to achieve broad scientific participation and independence. Its development will occur in a

  20. Modeling selective pressures on phytoplankton in the global ocean.

    Jason G Bragg

    Full Text Available Our view of marine microbes is transforming, as culture-independent methods facilitate rapid characterization of microbial diversity. It is difficult to assimilate this information into our understanding of marine microbe ecology and evolution, because their distributions, traits, and genomes are shaped by forces that are complex and dynamic. Here we incorporate diverse forces--physical, biogeochemical, ecological, and mutational--into a global ocean model to study selective pressures on a simple trait in a widely distributed lineage of picophytoplankton: the nitrogen use abilities of Synechococcus and Prochlorococcus cyanobacteria. Some Prochlorococcus ecotypes have lost the ability to use nitrate, whereas their close relatives, marine Synechococcus, typically retain it. We impose mutations for the loss of nitrogen use abilities in modeled picophytoplankton, and ask: in which parts of the ocean are mutants most disadvantaged by losing the ability to use nitrate, and in which parts are they least disadvantaged? Our model predicts that this selective disadvantage is smallest for picophytoplankton that live in tropical regions where Prochlorococcus are abundant in the real ocean. Conversely, the selective disadvantage of losing the ability to use nitrate is larger for modeled picophytoplankton that live at higher latitudes, where Synechococcus are abundant. In regions where we expect Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus populations to cycle seasonally in the real ocean, we find that model ecotypes with seasonal population dynamics similar to Prochlorococcus are less disadvantaged by losing the ability to use nitrate than model ecotypes with seasonal population dynamics similar to Synechococcus. The model predictions for the selective advantage associated with nitrate use are broadly consistent with the distribution of this ability among marine picocyanobacteria, and at finer scales, can provide insights into interactions between temporally varying

  1. Modeling selective pressures on phytoplankton in the global ocean.

    Bragg, Jason G; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie; Jahn, Oliver; Follows, Michael J; Chisholm, Sallie W

    2010-03-10

    Our view of marine microbes is transforming, as culture-independent methods facilitate rapid characterization of microbial diversity. It is difficult to assimilate this information into our understanding of marine microbe ecology and evolution, because their distributions, traits, and genomes are shaped by forces that are complex and dynamic. Here we incorporate diverse forces--physical, biogeochemical, ecological, and mutational--into a global ocean model to study selective pressures on a simple trait in a widely distributed lineage of picophytoplankton: the nitrogen use abilities of Synechococcus and Prochlorococcus cyanobacteria. Some Prochlorococcus ecotypes have lost the ability to use nitrate, whereas their close relatives, marine Synechococcus, typically retain it. We impose mutations for the loss of nitrogen use abilities in modeled picophytoplankton, and ask: in which parts of the ocean are mutants most disadvantaged by losing the ability to use nitrate, and in which parts are they least disadvantaged? Our model predicts that this selective disadvantage is smallest for picophytoplankton that live in tropical regions where Prochlorococcus are abundant in the real ocean. Conversely, the selective disadvantage of losing the ability to use nitrate is larger for modeled picophytoplankton that live at higher latitudes, where Synechococcus are abundant. In regions where we expect Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus populations to cycle seasonally in the real ocean, we find that model ecotypes with seasonal population dynamics similar to Prochlorococcus are less disadvantaged by losing the ability to use nitrate than model ecotypes with seasonal population dynamics similar to Synechococcus. The model predictions for the selective advantage associated with nitrate use are broadly consistent with the distribution of this ability among marine picocyanobacteria, and at finer scales, can provide insights into interactions between temporally varying ocean processes and

  2. Differential nitrate accumulation, nitrate reduction, nitrate reductase ...

    However, the effects of potassium nitrate were higher than sodium nitrate, which was due to the positive effects of potassium on the enzyme activity, sugars transport, water and nutrient transport, protein synthesis and carbohydrate metabolism. In conclusion, potassium nitrate has better effect on the nitrate assimilatory ...

  3. Modeled nitrate levels in well water supplies and prevalence of abnormal thyroid conditions among the Old Order Amish in Pennsylvania

    Aschebrook-Kilfoy Briseis

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Nitrate is a widespread contaminant of drinking water supplies, especially in agricultural areas. Nitrate intake from drinking water and dietary sources can interfere with the uptake of iodide by the thyroid, thus potentially impacting thyroid function. Methods We assessed the relation of estimated nitrate levels in well water supplies with thyroid health in a cohort of 2,543 Old Order Amish residing in Lancaster, Chester, and Lebanon counties in Pennsylvania for whom thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH levels were measured during 1995-2008. Nitrate measurement data (1976-2006 for 3,613 wells in the study area were obtained from the U.S. Geological Survey and we used these data to estimate concentrations at study participants' residences using a standard linear mixed effects model that included hydrogeological covariates and kriging of the wells' residuals. Nitrate levels estimated by the model ranged from 0.35 mg/L to 16.4 mg/L N-NO3-, with a median value of 6.5 mg/L, which was used as the cutpoint to define high and low nitrate exposure. In a validation analysis of the model, we calculated that the sensitivity of the model was 67% and the specificity was 93%. TSH levels were used to define the following outcomes: clinical hyperthyroidism (n = 10, clinical hypothyroidism (n = 56, subclinical hyperthyroidism (n = 25, and subclinical hypothyroidism (n = 228. Results In women, high nitrate exposure was significantly associated with subclinical hypothyroidism (OR = 1.60; 95% CI: 1.11-2.32. Nitrate was not associated with subclinical thyroid disease in men or with clinical thyroid disease in men or women. Conclusions Although these data do not provide strong support for an association between nitrate in drinking water and thyroid health, our results do suggest that further exploration of this hypothesis is warranted using studies that incorporate individual measures of both dietary and drinking water nitrate intake.

  4. Modeled nitrate levels in well water supplies and prevalence of abnormal thyroid conditions among the Old Order Amish in Pennsylvania.

    Aschebrook-Kilfoy, Briseis; Heltshe, Sonya L; Nuckols, John R; Sabra, Mona M; Shuldiner, Alan R; Mitchell, Braxton D; Airola, Matt; Holford, Theodore R; Zhang, Yawei; Ward, Mary H

    2012-02-17

    Nitrate is a widespread contaminant of drinking water supplies, especially in agricultural areas. Nitrate intake from drinking water and dietary sources can interfere with the uptake of iodide by the thyroid, thus potentially impacting thyroid function. We assessed the relation of estimated nitrate levels in well water supplies with thyroid health in a cohort of 2,543 Old Order Amish residing in Lancaster, Chester, and Lebanon counties in Pennsylvania for whom thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) levels were measured during 1995-2008. Nitrate measurement data (1976-2006) for 3,613 wells in the study area were obtained from the U.S. Geological Survey and we used these data to estimate concentrations at study participants' residences using a standard linear mixed effects model that included hydrogeological covariates and kriging of the wells' residuals. Nitrate levels estimated by the model ranged from 0.35 mg/L to 16.4 mg/L N-NO3(-), with a median value of 6.5 mg/L, which was used as the cutpoint to define high and low nitrate exposure. In a validation analysis of the model, we calculated that the sensitivity of the model was 67% and the specificity was 93%. TSH levels were used to define the following outcomes: clinical hyperthyroidism (n = 10), clinical hypothyroidism (n = 56), subclinical hyperthyroidism (n = 25), and subclinical hypothyroidism (n = 228). In women, high nitrate exposure was significantly associated with subclinical hypothyroidism (OR = 1.60; 95% CI: 1.11-2.32). Nitrate was not associated with subclinical thyroid disease in men or with clinical thyroid disease in men or women. Although these data do not provide strong support for an association between nitrate in drinking water and thyroid health, our results do suggest that further exploration of this hypothesis is warranted using studies that incorporate individual measures of both dietary and drinking water nitrate intake.

  5. Marine denitrification rates determined from a global 3-D inverse model

    T. DeVries

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available A major impediment to understanding long-term changes in the marine nitrogen (N cycle is the persistent uncertainty about the rates, distribution, and sensitivity of its largest fluxes in the modern ocean. We use a global ocean circulation model to obtain the first 3-D estimate of marine denitrification rates that is maximally consistent with available observations of nitrate deficits and the nitrogen isotopic ratio of oceanic nitrate. We find a global rate of marine denitrification in suboxic waters and sediments of 120–240 Tg N yr−1, which is lower than many other recent estimates. The difference stems from the ability to represent the 3-D spatial structure of suboxic zones, where denitrification rates of 50–77 Tg N yr−1 result in up to 50% depletion of nitrate. This depletion reduces the effect of local isotopic enrichment on the rest of the ocean, allowing the N isotope ratio of oceanic nitrate to be achieved with a sedimentary denitrification rate about 1.3–2.3 times that of suboxic zones. This balance of N losses between sediments and suboxic zones is shown to obey a simple relationship between isotope fractionation and the degree of nitrate consumption in the core of the suboxic zones. The global denitrification rates derived here suggest that the marine nitrogen budget is likely close to balanced.

  6. Takaful Models and Global Practices

    Akhter, Waheed

    2010-01-01

    There is a global interest in Islamic finance in general and Takāful in particular. The main feature that differentiates Takāful services from conventional ones is Sharī‟ah compliance nature of these services. Investors are taking keen interest in this potential market as Muslims constitute about one fourth of the world population (Muslim population, 2006). To streamline operations of a Takāful company, management and Sharī‟ah experts have developed different operational models for Takāful bu...

  7. Nitrate-Nitrogen Leaching and Modeling in Intensive Agriculture Farmland in China

    Xu, Ligang; Xu, Jin

    2013-01-01

    Protecting water resources from nitrate-nitrogen (NO3-N) contamination is an important public health concern and a major national environmental issue in China. Loss of NO3-N in soils due to leaching is not only one of the most important problems in agriculture farming, but is also the main factor causing nitrogen pollution in aquatic environments. Three typical intensive agriculture farmlands in Jiangyin City in China are selected as a case study for NO3-N leaching and modeling in the soil profile. In this study, the transport and fate of NO3-N within the soil profile and nitrate leaching to drains were analyzed by comparing field data with the simulation results of the LEACHM model. Comparisons between measured and simulated data indicated that the NO3-N concentrations in the soil and nitrate leaching to drains are controlled by the fertilizer practice, the initial conditions and the rainfall depth and distribution. Moreover, the study reveals that the LEACHM model gives a fair description of the NO3-N dynamics in the soil and subsurface drainage at the field scale. It can also be concluded that the model after calibration is a useful tool to optimize as a function of the combination “climate-crop-soil-bottom boundary condition” the nitrogen application strategy resulting for the environment in an acceptable level of nitrate leaching. The findings in this paper help to demonstrate the distribution and migration of nitrogen in intensive agriculture farmlands, as well as to explore the mechanism of groundwater contamination resulting from agricultural activities. PMID:23983629

  8. Nitrate-Nitrogen Leaching and Modeling in Intensive Agriculture Farmland in China

    Ligang Xu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Protecting water resources from nitrate-nitrogen (NO3-N contamination is an important public health concern and a major national environmental issue in China. Loss of NO3-N in soils due to leaching is not only one of the most important problems in agriculture farming, but is also the main factor causing nitrogen pollution in aquatic environments. Three typical intensive agriculture farmlands in Jiangyin City in China are selected as a case study for NO3-N leaching and modeling in the soil profile. In this study, the transport and fate of NO3-N within the soil profile and nitrate leaching to drains were analyzed by comparing field data with the simulation results of the LEACHM model. Comparisons between measured and simulated data indicated that the NO3-N concentrations in the soil and nitrate leaching to drains are controlled by the fertilizer practice, the initial conditions and the rainfall depth and distribution. Moreover, the study reveals that the LEACHM model gives a fair description of the NO3-N dynamics in the soil and subsurface drainage at the field scale. It can also be concluded that the model after calibration is a useful tool to optimize as a function of the combination “climate-crop-soil-bottom boundary condition” the nitrogen application strategy resulting for the environment in an acceptable level of nitrate leaching. The findings in this paper help to demonstrate the distribution and migration of nitrogen in intensive agriculture farmlands, as well as to explore the mechanism of groundwater contamination resulting from agricultural activities.

  9. Global Modeling Study of the Bioavailable Atmospheric Iron Supply to the Global Ocean

    Myriokefalitakis, S.; Krol, M. C.; van Noije, T.; Le Sager, P.

    2017-12-01

    Atmospheric deposition of trace constituents acts as a nutrient source to the open ocean and affect marine ecosystem. Dust is known as a major source of nutrients to the global ocean, but only a fraction of these nutrients is released in a bioavailable form that can be assimilated by the marine biota. Iron (Fe) is a key micronutrient that significantly modulates gross primary production in the High-Nutrient-Low-Chlorophyll (HNLC) oceans, where macronutrients like nitrate are abundant, but primary production is limited by Fe scarcity. The global atmospheric Fe cycle is here parameterized in the state-of-the-art global Earth System Model EC-Earth. The model takes into account the primary emissions of both insoluble and soluble Fe forms, associated with mineral dust and combustion aerosols. The impact of atmospheric acidity and organic ligands on mineral dissolution processes, is parameterized based on updated experimental and theoretical findings. Model results are also evaluated against available observations. Overall, the link between the labile Fe atmospheric deposition and atmospheric composition changes is here demonstrated and quantified. This work has been financed by the Marie-Curie H2020-MSCA-IF-2015 grant (ID 705652) ODEON (Online DEposition over OceaNs; modeling the effect of air pollution on ocean bio-geochemistry in an Earth System Model).

  10. Modeling nitrate leaching and optimizing water and nitrogen management under irrigated maize in desert oases in Northwestern China.

    Hu, Kelin; Li, Yong; Chen, Weiping; Chen, Deli; Wei, Yongping; Edis, Robert; Li, Baoguo; Huang, Yuanfang; Zhang, Yuanpei

    2010-01-01

    Understanding water and N transport through the soil profile is important for efficient irrigation and nutrient management to minimize nitrate leaching to the groundwater, and to promote agricultural sustainable development in desert oases. In this study, a process-based water and nitrogen management model (WNMM) was used to simulate soil water movement, nitrate transport, and crop growth (maize [Zea mays L.]) under desert oasis conditions in northwestern China. The model was calibrated and validated with a field experiment. The model simulation results showed that about 35% of total water input and 58% of the total N input were leached to <1.8 m depth under traditional management practice. Excessive irrigation and N fertilizer application, high nitrate concentration in the irrigation water, together with the sandy soil texture, resulted in large nitrate leaching. Nitrate leaching was significantly reduced under the improved management practice suggested by farm extension personnel; however, the water and nitrate inputs still far exceeded the crop requirements. More than 1700 scenarios combining various types of irrigation and fertilizer practices were simulated. Quantitative analysis was conducted to obtain the best management practices (BMPs) with simultaneous consideration of crop yield, water use efficiency, fertilizer N use efficiency, and nitrate leaching. The results indicated that the BMPs under the specific desert oasis conditions are to irrigate the maize with 600 mm of water in eight times with a single fertilizer application at a rate of 75 kg N ha(-1).

  11. Modeling the Response of Primary Production and Sedimentation to Variable Nitrate Loading in the Mississippi River Plume

    Green, Rebecca E; Breed, Greg A; Dagg, Michael J; Lohrenz, Steven E

    2008-01-01

    ...% reduction in annual nitrogen discharge into the Gulf of Mexico. We developed an ecosystem model for the Mississippi River plume to investigate the response of organic matter production and sedimentation to variable nitrate loading...

  12. Modeling of global biomass policies

    Gielen, Dolf; Fujino, Junichi; Hashimoto, Seiji; Moriguchi, Yuichi

    2003-01-01

    This paper discusses the BEAP model and its use for the analysis of biomass policies for CO 2 emission reduction. The model considers competing land use, trade and leakage effects, and competing emission reduction strategies. Two policy scenarios are presented. In case of a 2040 time horizon the results suggest that a combination of afforestation and limited use of biomass for energy and materials constitutes the most attractive set of strategies. In case of a 'continued Kyoto' scenario including afforestation permit trade, the results suggest 5.1 Gt emission reduction based on land use change in 2020, two thirds of the total emission reduction by then. In case of global emission reduction, land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) accounts for one quarter of the emission reduction. However these results depend on the modeling time horizon. In case of a broader time horizon, maximized biomass production is more attractive than LULUCF. This result can be interpreted as a warning against a market based trading scheme for LULUCF credits. The model results suggest that the bioenergy market is dominated by transportation fuels and heating, and to a lesser extent feedstocks. Bioelectricity does not gain a significant market share in case competing CO 2 -free electricity options such as CO 2 capture and sequestration and nuclear are considered. To some extent trade in agricultural food products such as beef and cereals will be affected by CO 2 policies

  13. Modeling of global biomass policies

    Gielen, D.; Fujino, Junichi; Hashimoto, Seiji; Moriguchi, Yuichi

    2003-01-01

    This paper discusses the BEAP model and its use for the analysis of biomass policies for CO 2 emission reduction. The model considers competing land use, trade and leakage effects, and competing emission reduction strategies. Two policy scenarios are presented. In case of a 2040 time horizon the results suggest that a combination of afforestation and limited use of biomass for energy and materials constitutes the most attractive set of strategies. In case of a 'continued Kyoto' scenario including afforestation permit trade, the results suggest 5.1 Gt emission reduction based on land use change in 2020, two thirds of the total emission reduction by then. In case of global emission reduction, land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) accounts for one quarter of the emission reduction. However these results depend on the modeling time horizon. In case of a broader time horizon, maximized biomass production is more attractive than LULUCF. This result can be interpreted as a warning against a market based trading scheme for LULUCF credits. The model results suggest that the bioenergy market is dominated by transportation fuels and heating, and to a lesser extent feedstocks. Bioelectricity does not gain a significant market share in case competing CO 2 -free electricity options such as CO 2 capture and sequestration and nuclear are considered. To some extent trade in agricultural food products such as beef and cereals will be affected by CO 2 policies. (Author)

  14. Elucidating the impact of nitrate and labile carbon application on spatial heterogeneity of denitrification by 15N modelling

    Cardenas, Laura; Loick, Nadine; Dixon, Liz; Matthews, Peter; Gilsanz, Claudia; Bol, Roland; Lewicka-Szczebak, Dominika; Well, Reinhard

    2016-04-01

    N2O is considered to be an important GHG with soils representing its major source and accounting for approximately 6% of the current global warming and is also implicated in the depletion of stratospheric ozone. The atmospheric N2O concentration has been increasing since the Industrial Revolution making the understanding of its sources and removal processes very important for development of mitigation strategies. Bergstermann et al. (2011) found evidence of the existence of more than one pool of nitrate undergoing denitrification in a silty clay loam arable soil amended with glucose/nitrate solution. The Rayleigh type model was used to simulate d15N of N2O using process rates and associated fractionation factors, but assumptions for some of the model parameters had to be made due to lack of available data. In this study we carried out 2 incubation experiments in order to parameterise the model. To restrict the volume of soil reached by the amendment, we used blocks containing 3 soil cores that were incubated in one vessel to measure emissions of NO, N2O, N2 and CO2 from a clay grassland soil amended with KNO3 (N) and glucose (C) in three treatments: '1C' only 1 core received N and C (the other 2 received water), '3C' 3 cores received N and C, and 'Control' (received water only). The results showed changes in the d15Nbulk trends after day 6 post amendment application, coinciding with the decrease of N2O fluxes. We also report the results in the 15N site preference (SP) and d18O. We will show the results from the model validation based on this data.

  15. Nitrate Sources, Supply, and Phytoplankton Growth in the Great Australian Bight: An Eulerian-Lagrangian Modeling Approach

    Cetina-Heredia, Paulina; van Sebille, Erik; Matear, Richard J.; Roughan, Moninya

    2018-02-01

    The Great Australian Bight (GAB), a coastal sea bordered by the Pacific, Southern, and Indian Oceans, sustains one of the largest fisheries in Australia but the geographical origin of nutrients that maintain its productivity is not fully known. We use 12 years of modeled data from a coupled hydrodynamic and biogeochemical model and an Eulerian-Lagrangian approach to quantify nitrate supply to the GAB and the region between the GAB and the Subantarctic Australian Front (GAB-SAFn), identify phytoplankton growth within the GAB, and ascertain the source of nitrate that fuels it. We find that nitrate concentrations have a decorrelation timescale of ˜60 days; since most of the water from surrounding oceans takes longer than 60 days to reach the GAB, 23% and 75% of nitrate used by phytoplankton to grow are sourced within the GAB and from the GAB-SAFn, respectively. Thus, most of the nitrate is recycled locally. Although nitrate concentrations and fluxes into the GAB are greater below 100 m than above, 79% of the nitrate fueling phytoplankton growth is sourced from above 100 m. Our findings suggest that topographical uplift and stratification erosion are key mechanisms delivering nutrients from below the nutricline into the euphotic zone and triggering large phytoplankton growth. We find annual and semiannual periodicities in phytoplankton growth, peaking in the austral spring and autumn when the mixed layer deepens leading to a subsurface maximum of phytoplankton growth. This study highlights the importance of examining phytoplankton growth at depth and the utility of Lagrangian approaches.

  16. A hybrid machine learning model to predict and visualize nitrate concentration throughout the Central Valley aquifer, California, USA

    Ransom, Katherine M.; Nolan, Bernard T.; Traum, Jonathan A.; Faunt, Claudia; Bell, Andrew M.; Gronberg, Jo Ann M.; Wheeler, David C.; Zamora, Celia; Jurgens, Bryant; Schwarz, Gregory E.; Belitz, Kenneth; Eberts, Sandra; Kourakos, George; Harter, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    Intense demand for water in the Central Valley of California and related increases in groundwater nitrate concentration threaten the sustainability of the groundwater resource. To assess contamination risk in the region, we developed a hybrid, non-linear, machine learning model within a statistical learning framework to predict nitrate contamination of groundwater to depths of approximately 500 m below ground surface. A database of 145 predictor variables representing well characteristics, historical and current field and landscape-scale nitrogen mass balances, historical and current land use, oxidation/reduction conditions, groundwater flow, climate, soil characteristics, depth to groundwater, and groundwater age were assigned to over 6000 private supply and public supply wells measured previously for nitrate and located throughout the study area. The boosted regression tree (BRT) method was used to screen and rank variables to predict nitrate concentration at the depths of domestic and public well supplies. The novel approach included as predictor variables outputs from existing physically based models of the Central Valley. The top five most important predictor variables included two oxidation/reduction variables (probability of manganese concentration to exceed 50 ppb and probability of dissolved oxygen concentration to be below 0.5 ppm), field-scale adjusted unsaturated zone nitrogen input for the 1975 time period, average difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration during the years 1971–2000, and 1992 total landscape nitrogen input. Twenty-five variables were selected for the final model for log-transformed nitrate. In general, increasing probability of anoxic conditions and increasing precipitation relative to potential evapotranspiration had a corresponding decrease in nitrate concentration predictions. Conversely, increasing 1975 unsaturated zone nitrogen leaching flux and 1992 total landscape nitrogen input had an increasing relative

  17. Identifying nitrate sources and transformations in surface water by combining dual isotopes of nitrate and stable isotope mixing model in a watershed with different land uses and multi-tributaries

    Wang, Meng; Lu, Baohong

    2017-04-01

    Nitrate is essential for the growth and survival of plants, animals and humans. However, excess nitrate in drinking water is regarded as a health hazard as it is linked to infant methemoglobinemia and esophageal cancer. Revealing nitrate characteristics and identifying its sources are fundamental for making effective water management strategies, but nitrate sources in multi-tributaries and mixed land covered watersheds remain unclear. It is difficult to determine the predominant NO3- sources using conventional water quality monitoring techniques. In our study, based on 20 surface water sampling sites for more than two years' monitoring from April 2012 to December 2014, water chemical and dual isotopic approaches (δ15N-NO3- and δ18O-NO3-) were integrated for the first time to evaluate nitrate characteristics and sources in the Huashan watershed, Jianghuai hilly region, East China. The results demonstrated that nitrate content in surface water was relatively low in the downstream (nitrate was observed at the source of the river in one of the sub-watersheds, which exhibited an exponential decline along the stream due to dilution, absorption by aquatic plants, and high forest cover. Although dramatically decline of nitrate occurred along the stream, denitrification was not found in surface water by analyzing δ15N-NO3- and δ18O-NO3- relationship. Proportional contributions of five potential nitrate sources (i.e., precipitation; manure and sewage; soil nitrogen; nitrate fertilizer; nitrate derived from ammonia fertilizer and rainfall) were estimated using a Bayesian isotope mixing model. Model results indicated nitrate sources varied significantly among different rainfall conditions, land use types, as well as anthropologic activities. In summary, coupling dual isotopes of nitrate (δ15N-NO3- and δ18O-NO3-, simultaneously) with a Bayesian isotope mixing model offers a useful and practical way to qualitatively analyze nitrate sources and transformations as well as

  18. Assessment of nitrate pollution in the Grand Morin aquifers (France): Combined use of geostatistics and physically based modeling

    Flipo, Nicolas [Centre de Geosciences, UMR Sisyphe, ENSMP, 35 rue Saint-Honore, F-77305 Fontainebleau (France)]. E-mail: nicolas.flipo@ensmp.fr; Jeannee, Nicolas [Geovariances, 49 bis, avenue Franklin Roosevelt, F-77212 Avon (France); Poulin, Michel [Centre de Geosciences, UMR Sisyphe, ENSMP, 35 rue Saint-Honore, F-77305 Fontainebleau (France); Even, Stephanie [Centre de Geosciences, UMR Sisyphe, ENSMP, 35 rue Saint-Honore, F-77305 Fontainebleau (France); Ledoux, Emmanuel [Centre de Geosciences, UMR Sisyphe, ENSMP, 35 rue Saint-Honore, F-77305 Fontainebleau (France)

    2007-03-15

    The objective of this work is to combine several approaches to better understand nitrate fate in the Grand Morin aquifers (2700 km{sup 2}), part of the Seine basin. CAWAQS results from the coupling of the hydrogeological model NEWSAM with the hydrodynamic and biogeochemical model of river PROSE. CAWAQS is coupled with the agronomic model STICS in order to simulate nitrate migration in basins. First, kriging provides a satisfactory representation of aquifer nitrate contamination from local observations, to set initial conditions for the physically based model. Then associated confidence intervals, derived from data using geostatistics, are used to validate CAWAQS results. Results and evaluation obtained from the combination of these approaches are given (period 1977-1988). Then CAWAQS is used to simulate nitrate fate for a 20-year period (1977-1996). The mean nitrate concentrations increase in aquifers is 0.09 mgN L{sup -1} yr{sup -1}, resulting from an average infiltration flux of 3500 kgN.km{sup -2} yr{sup -1}. - Combined use of geostatistics and physically based modeling allows assessment of nitrate concentrations in aquifer systems.

  19. Assessment of nitrate pollution in the Grand Morin aquifers (France): Combined use of geostatistics and physically based modeling

    Flipo, Nicolas; Jeannee, Nicolas; Poulin, Michel; Even, Stephanie; Ledoux, Emmanuel

    2007-01-01

    The objective of this work is to combine several approaches to better understand nitrate fate in the Grand Morin aquifers (2700 km 2 ), part of the Seine basin. CAWAQS results from the coupling of the hydrogeological model NEWSAM with the hydrodynamic and biogeochemical model of river PROSE. CAWAQS is coupled with the agronomic model STICS in order to simulate nitrate migration in basins. First, kriging provides a satisfactory representation of aquifer nitrate contamination from local observations, to set initial conditions for the physically based model. Then associated confidence intervals, derived from data using geostatistics, are used to validate CAWAQS results. Results and evaluation obtained from the combination of these approaches are given (period 1977-1988). Then CAWAQS is used to simulate nitrate fate for a 20-year period (1977-1996). The mean nitrate concentrations increase in aquifers is 0.09 mgN L -1 yr -1 , resulting from an average infiltration flux of 3500 kgN.km -2 yr -1 . - Combined use of geostatistics and physically based modeling allows assessment of nitrate concentrations in aquifer systems

  20. Ecohydrological modelling of water discharge and nitrate loads in a mesoscale lowland catchment, Germany

    N. Fohrer

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available The aims of this study are to identify the capacities of applying an ecohydrological model for simulating flow and to assess the impact of point and non-point source pollution on nitrate loads in a complex lowland catchment, which has special hydrological characteristics in comparison with those of other catchments. The study area Kielstau catchment has a size of approximately 50 km2 and is located in the North German lowlands. The water quality is not only influenced by the predominating agricultural land use in the catchment as cropland and pasture, but also by six municipal wastewater treatment plants.

    Ecohydrological models like the SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool are useful tools for simulating nutrient loads in river catchments. Diffuse entries from the agriculture resulting from fertilizers as well as punctual entries from the wastewater treatment plants are implemented in the model set-up.

    The results of this study show good agreement between simulated and measured daily discharges with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and a correlation coefficient of 0.76 and 0.88 for the calibration period (November 1998 to October 2004; 0.75 and 0.92 for the validation period (November 2004 to December 2007. The model efficiency for daily nitrate loads is 0.64 and 0.5 for the calibration period (June 2005 to May 2007 and the validation period (June 2007 to December 2007, respectively. The study revealed that SWAT performed satisfactorily in simulating daily flow and nitrate loads at the lowland catchment in Northern Germany.

  1. Modeling hydrology, groundwater recharge and non-point nitrate loadings in the Himalayan Upper Yamuna basin

    Narula, Kapil K.; Gosain, A.K.

    2013-01-01

    The mountainous Himalayan watersheds are important hydrologic systems responsible for much of the water supply in the Indian sub-continent. These watersheds are increasingly facing anthropogenic and climate-related pressures that impact spatial and temporal distribution of water availability. This study evaluates temporal and spatial distribution of water availability including groundwater recharge and quality (non-point nitrate loadings) for a Himalayan watershed, namely, the Upper Yamuna watershed (part of the Ganga River basin). The watershed has an area of 11 600 km 2 with elevation ranging from 6300 to 600 m above mean sea level. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a physically-based, time-continuous model, has been used to simulate the land phase of the hydrological cycle, to obtain streamflows, groundwater recharge, and nitrate (NO 3 ) load distributions in various components of runoff. The hydrological SWAT model is integrated with the MODular finite difference groundwater FLOW model (MODFLOW), and Modular 3-Dimensional Multi-Species Transport model (MT3DMS), to obtain groundwater flow and NO 3 transport. Validation of various modules of this integrated model has been done for sub-basins of the Upper Yamuna watershed. Results on surface runoff and groundwater levels obtained as outputs from simulation show a good comparison with the observed streamflows and groundwater levels (Nash–Sutcliffe and R 2 correlations greater than + 0.7). Nitrate loading obtained after nitrification, denitrification, and NO 3 removal from unsaturated and shallow aquifer zones is combined with groundwater recharge. Results for nitrate modeling in groundwater aquifers are compared with observed NO 3 concentration and are found to be in good agreement. The study further evaluates the sensitivity of water availability to climate change. Simulations have been made with the weather inputs of climate change scenarios of A2, B2, and A1B for end of the century. Water yield estimates

  2. Conjunction of wavelet transform and SOM-mutual information data pre-processing approach for AI-based Multi-Station nitrate modeling of watersheds

    Nourani, Vahid; Andalib, Gholamreza; Dąbrowska, Dominika

    2017-05-01

    Accurate nitrate load predictions can elevate decision management of water quality of watersheds which affects to environment and drinking water. In this paper, two scenarios were considered for Multi-Station (MS) nitrate load modeling of the Little River watershed. In the first scenario, Markovian characteristics of streamflow-nitrate time series were proposed for the MS modeling. For this purpose, feature extraction criterion of Mutual Information (MI) was employed for input selection of artificial intelligence models (Feed Forward Neural Network, FFNN and least square support vector machine). In the second scenario for considering seasonality-based characteristics of the time series, wavelet transform was used to extract multi-scale features of streamflow-nitrate time series of the watershed's sub-basins to model MS nitrate loads. Self-Organizing Map (SOM) clustering technique which finds homogeneous sub-series clusters was also linked to MI for proper cluster agent choice to be imposed into the models for predicting the nitrate loads of the watershed's sub-basins. The proposed MS method not only considers the prediction of the outlet nitrate but also covers predictions of interior sub-basins nitrate load values. The results indicated that the proposed FFNN model coupled with the SOM-MI improved the performance of MS nitrate predictions compared to the Markovian-based models up to 39%. Overall, accurate selection of dominant inputs which consider seasonality-based characteristics of streamflow-nitrate process could enhance the efficiency of nitrate load predictions.

  3. Modeling hydrology, groundwater recharge and non-point nitrate loadings in the Himalayan Upper Yamuna basin.

    Narula, Kapil K; Gosain, A K

    2013-12-01

    The mountainous Himalayan watersheds are important hydrologic systems responsible for much of the water supply in the Indian sub-continent. These watersheds are increasingly facing anthropogenic and climate-related pressures that impact spatial and temporal distribution of water availability. This study evaluates temporal and spatial distribution of water availability including groundwater recharge and quality (non-point nitrate loadings) for a Himalayan watershed, namely, the Upper Yamuna watershed (part of the Ganga River basin). The watershed has an area of 11,600 km(2) with elevation ranging from 6300 to 600 m above mean sea level. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a physically-based, time-continuous model, has been used to simulate the land phase of the hydrological cycle, to obtain streamflows, groundwater recharge, and nitrate (NO3) load distributions in various components of runoff. The hydrological SWAT model is integrated with the MODular finite difference groundwater FLOW model (MODFLOW), and Modular 3-Dimensional Multi-Species Transport model (MT3DMS), to obtain groundwater flow and NO3 transport. Validation of various modules of this integrated model has been done for sub-basins of the Upper Yamuna watershed. Results on surface runoff and groundwater levels obtained as outputs from simulation show a good comparison with the observed streamflows and groundwater levels (Nash-Sutcliffe and R(2) correlations greater than +0.7). Nitrate loading obtained after nitrification, denitrification, and NO3 removal from unsaturated and shallow aquifer zones is combined with groundwater recharge. Results for nitrate modeling in groundwater aquifers are compared with observed NO3 concentration and are found to be in good agreement. The study further evaluates the sensitivity of water availability to climate change. Simulations have been made with the weather inputs of climate change scenarios of A2, B2, and A1B for end of the century. Water yield estimates under

  4. Using lumped modelling for providing simple metrics and associated uncertainties of catchment response to agricultural-derived nitrates pollutions

    RUIZ, L.; Fovet, O.; Faucheux, M.; Molenat, J.; Sekhar, M.; Aquilina, L.; Gascuel-odoux, C.

    2013-12-01

    catchments. We used the Global Likelihood Uncertainty Estimations (GLUE) approach [Beven and Binley, 1992] to assess the parameter uncertainties and the subsequent error in model outputs and residence times. Reasonably low parameter uncertainties were obtained by calibrating simultaneously the two paired catchments with two outlets time series of stream flow and nitrate concentrations. Finally, only one parameter controlled the contrast in nitrogen residence times between the catchments. Therefore, this approach provided a promising metric for classifying the variability of catchment response to agricultural nitrogen inputs. Beven, K., and A. Binley (1992), THE FUTURE OF DISTRIBUTED MODELS - MODEL CALIBRATION AND UNCERTAINTY PREDICTION, Hydrological Processes, 6(3), 279-298. Kirchner, J. W., X. Feng, and C. Neal (2001), Catchment-scale advection and dispersion as a mechanism for fractal scaling in stream tracer concentrations, Journal of Hydrology, 254(1-4), 82-101. Ruiz, L., S. Abiven, C. Martin, P. Durand, V. Beaujouan, and J. Molenat (2002), Effect on nitrate concentration in stream water of agricultural practices in small catchments in Brittany : II. Temporal variations and mixing processes, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 6(3), 507-513.

  5. Three-dimensional modeling of nitrate-N transport in vadose zone: Roles of soil heterogeneity and groundwater flux

    Akbariyeh, Simin; Bartelt-Hunt, Shannon; Snow, Daniel; Li, Xu; Tang, Zhenghong; Li, Yusong

    2018-04-01

    Contamination of groundwater from nitrogen fertilizers in agricultural lands is an important environmental and water quality management issue. It is well recognized that in agriculturally intensive areas, fertilizers and pesticides may leach through the vadose zone and eventually reach groundwater. While numerical models are commonly used to simulate fate and transport of agricultural contaminants, few models have considered a controlled field work to investigate the influence of soil heterogeneity and groundwater flow on nitrate-N distribution in both root zone and deep vadose zone. In this work, a numerical model was developed to simulate nitrate-N transport and transformation beneath a center pivot-irrigated corn field on Nebraska Management System Evaluation area over a three-year period. The model was based on a realistic three-dimensional sediment lithology, as well as carefully controlled irrigation and fertilizer application plans. In parallel, a homogeneous soil domain, containing the major sediment type of the site (i.e. sandy loam), was developed to conduct the same water flow and nitrate-N leaching simulations. Simulated nitrate-N concentrations were compared with the monitored nitrate-N concentrations in 10 multi-level sampling wells over a three-year period. Although soil heterogeneity was mainly observed from top soil to 3 m below the surface, heterogeneity controlled the spatial distribution of nitrate-N concentration. Soil heterogeneity, however, has minimal impact on the total mass of nitrate-N in the domain. In the deeper saturated zone, short-term variations of nitrate-N concentration correlated with the groundwater level fluctuations.

  6. Spatial risk modelling for water shortage and nitrate pollution in the lower Jordan valley

    Loibl, W.; Orthofer, R.

    2002-02-01

    This report summarizes the results of the spatial risk modeling activities (work package WP-4.4, 'GIS Risk Modeling') of the INCO-DC project 'Developing Sustainable Water Management in the Jordan Valley'. The project was funded by European Commission's INCO-DC research program. The main objective of the project was to develop the scientific basis for an integral management plan of water resources and their use in the Lower Jordan Valley. The outputs of the project were expected to allow a better understanding of the water management situation, and to provide a sound basis for a better future water management - not only separately in the three countries, but in the overall valley region. The risk modeling was done by the ARCS Seibersdorf research (ARCS), based on information and data provided by the regional partners from Israel (Hebrew University, Jerusalem, HUJ), Palestine (Applied Research Institute, Jerusalem, Bethlehem, ARIJ) and Jordan (EnviroConsult Office, Amman, ECO). The land use classification has been established through a cooperation between ARCS and the Yale University Center for Earth Observation (YUCEO). As a result of the work, the spatial patterns of agricultural and domestic water demand in the Lower Jordan Valley were established, and the spatial dimension of driving forces for water usage and water supply was analyzed. Furthermore, a conceptual model for nitrate leakage (established by HUJ) was translated into a GIS system, and the risks for nitrate pollution of groundwater were quantified. (author)

  7. GYY4137, an H2S Slow-Releasing Donor, Prevents Nitrative Stress and α-Synuclein Nitration in an MPTP Mouse Model of Parkinson’s Disease

    Xiaoou Hou

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The neuromodulator hydrogen sulfide (H2S was shown to exert neuroprotection in different models of Parkinson’s disease (PD via its anti-inflammatory and anti-apoptotic properties. In this study, we evaluated the effect of an H2S slow-releasing compound GYY4137 (GYY on a mouse PD model induced by acute injection with 1-methyl-4-phenyl-1,2,3,6-tetrahydropyridine (MPTP. GYY was intraperitoneally (i.p. injected once daily into male C57BL/6J mice 3 days before and 2 weeks after MPTP (14 mg/kg, four times at 2-h intervals, i.p. administration. Saline was given as a control. Behavioral tests (rotarod, balance beam, and grid walking showed that 50 mg/kg GYY significantly ameliorated MPTP-caused motor impairments. At lower doses (12.5 and 25 mg/kg GYY exhibited a less obvious effect. Consistent with this, immunohistochemistry and western blot analysis demonstrated that 50 mg/kg GYY attenuated the loss of tyrosine hydroxylase (TH positive neurons in the substantia nigra and the decrease of TH expression in the striatum of MPTP-treated mice. Moreover, at this regimen GYY relieved the nitrative stress, as indicated by the decreases in nitric oxide (NO generation and neuronal NO synthase (nNOS upregulation elicited by MPTP in the striatum. The suppression of GYY on nNOS expression was verified in vitro, and the results further revealed that Akt activation may participate in the inhibition by GYY on nNOS upregulation. More important, GYY reduced the nitrated modification of α-synuclein, a PD-related protein, in MPTP-induced mice. Overall, our findings suggest that GYY attenuated dopaminergic neuron degeneration and reduced α-synuclein nitration in the midbrain, thus exerting neuroprotection in MPTP-induced mouse model of PD.

  8. GYY4137, an H2S Slow-Releasing Donor, Prevents Nitrative Stress and α-Synuclein Nitration in an MPTP Mouse Model of Parkinson's Disease.

    Hou, Xiaoou; Yuan, Yuqing; Sheng, Yulan; Yuan, Baoshi; Wang, Yali; Zheng, Jiyue; Liu, Chun-Feng; Zhang, Xiaohu; Hu, Li-Fang

    2017-01-01

    The neuromodulator hydrogen sulfide (H 2 S) was shown to exert neuroprotection in different models of Parkinson's disease (PD) via its anti-inflammatory and anti-apoptotic properties. In this study, we evaluated the effect of an H 2 S slow-releasing compound GYY4137 (GYY) on a mouse PD model induced by acute injection with 1-methyl-4-phenyl-1,2,3,6-tetrahydropyridine (MPTP). GYY was intraperitoneally (i.p.) injected once daily into male C57BL/6J mice 3 days before and 2 weeks after MPTP (14 mg/kg, four times at 2-h intervals, i.p.) administration. Saline was given as a control. Behavioral tests (rotarod, balance beam, and grid walking) showed that 50 mg/kg GYY significantly ameliorated MPTP-caused motor impairments. At lower doses (12.5 and 25 mg/kg) GYY exhibited a less obvious effect. Consistent with this, immunohistochemistry and western blot analysis demonstrated that 50 mg/kg GYY attenuated the loss of tyrosine hydroxylase (TH) positive neurons in the substantia nigra and the decrease of TH expression in the striatum of MPTP-treated mice. Moreover, at this regimen GYY relieved the nitrative stress, as indicated by the decreases in nitric oxide (NO) generation and neuronal NO synthase (nNOS) upregulation elicited by MPTP in the striatum. The suppression of GYY on nNOS expression was verified in vitro , and the results further revealed that Akt activation may participate in the inhibition by GYY on nNOS upregulation. More important, GYY reduced the nitrated modification of α-synuclein, a PD-related protein, in MPTP-induced mice. Overall, our findings suggest that GYY attenuated dopaminergic neuron degeneration and reduced α-synuclein nitration in the midbrain, thus exerting neuroprotection in MPTP-induced mouse model of PD.

  9. Modelling MIZ dynamics in a global model

    Rynders, Stefanie; Aksenov, Yevgeny; Feltham, Daniel; Nurser, George; Naveira Garabato, Alberto

    2016-04-01

    Exposure of large, previously ice-covered areas of the Arctic Ocean to the wind and surface ocean waves results in the Arctic pack ice cover becoming more fragmented and mobile, with large regions of ice cover evolving into the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ). The need for better climate predictions, along with growing economic activity in the Polar Oceans, necessitates climate and forecasting models that can simulate fragmented sea ice with a greater fidelity. Current models are not fully fit for the purpose, since they neither model surface ocean waves in the MIZ, nor account for the effect of floe fragmentation on drag, nor include sea ice rheology that represents both the now thinner pack ice and MIZ ice dynamics. All these processes affect the momentum transfer to the ocean. We present initial results from a global ocean model NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) coupled to the Los Alamos sea ice model CICE. The model setup implements a novel rheological formulation for sea ice dynamics, accounting for ice floe collisions, thus offering a seamless framework for pack ice and MIZ simulations. The effect of surface waves on ice motion is included through wave pressure and the turbulent kinetic energy of ice floes. In the multidecadal model integrations we examine MIZ and basin scale sea ice and oceanic responses to the changes in ice dynamics. We analyse model sensitivities and attribute them to key sea ice and ocean dynamical mechanisms. The results suggest that the effect of the new ice rheology is confined to the MIZ. However with the current increase in summer MIZ area, which is projected to continue and may become the dominant type of sea ice in the Arctic, we argue that the effects of the combined sea ice rheology will be noticeable in large areas of the Arctic Ocean, affecting sea ice and ocean. With this study we assert that to make more accurate sea ice predictions in the changing Arctic, models need to include MIZ dynamics and physics.

  10. On global and regional spectral evaluation of global geopotential models

    Ustun, A; Abbak, R A

    2010-01-01

    Spectral evaluation of global geopotential models (GGMs) is necessary to recognize the behaviour of gravity signal and its error recorded in spherical harmonic coefficients and associated standard deviations. Results put forward in this wise explain the whole contribution of gravity data in different kinds that represent various sections of the gravity spectrum. This method is more informative than accuracy assessment methods, which use external data such as GPS-levelling. Comparative spectral evaluation for more than one model can be performed both in global and local sense using many spectral tools. The number of GGMs has grown with the increasing number of data collected by the dedicated satellite gravity missions, CHAMP, GRACE and GOCE. This fact makes it necessary to measure the differences between models and to monitor the improvements in the gravity field recovery. In this paper, some of the satellite-only and combined models are examined in different scales, globally and regionally, in order to observe the advances in the modelling of GGMs and their strengths at various expansion degrees for geodetic and geophysical applications. The validation of the published errors of model coefficients is a part of this evaluation. All spectral tools explicitly reveal the superiority of the GRACE-based models when compared against the models that comprise the conventional satellite tracking data. The disagreement between models is large in local/regional areas if data sets are different, as seen from the example of the Turkish territory

  11. A study of the global and regional ventricle function using radionuclide ventriculography in the cases of patients with and without KHK under nitrate and placebo

    Kroth, B.

    1983-01-01

    In a controlled study of 74 patients with coronary heart disease (KHK) or without provable heart disease the ventricle function at rest and under ergonomic load before and after oral administration of nitrates, respectively placebos was studied with the help of radionuclide ventriculography. Radionuclide ventriculography proved itself thereby as a valuable method of high sensitivity for the recognition of KHK. The stress test increases the sensitivity and allows inferences to be made on the extent of the ischemia. The global function at rest is more a parameter for the functional restriction by infarct scars. A quantitative regional evaluation also makes possible the recognition of minor local changes. The additional study after nitrate administration allows a basis for the extent of reversibility in the stress-dependent functional restriction. The effects of a drug therapy become extrinsically presentable as a result of radionuclide ventriculography. (TRV) [de

  12. Experimental study on oral sulfhydryl as an adjuvant for improving nitrate ester tolerance in an animal model.

    Chen, L; Jiang, J-Q; Zhang, Y; Feng, H

    2018-03-01

    As an initial step in exploring the feasibility of oral sulfhydryl as an adjuvant for improving nitrate ester tolerance, this study was designed to experimentally test the adjuvant therapy in a rabbit model of atherosclerosis (AS). New Zealand white rabbits with induced AS were randomly divided into four groups: AS group, AS + nitrate ester group, AS + nitrate ester tolerance group, and AS + drug combination group. Additionally, four equivalent groups with healthy New Zealand white rabbits without AS were also conformed. After feeding the animals for 5 days, the concentrations of superoxide anion (•O2-), superoxide dismutase (SOD), malondialdehyde (MDA), nitric oxide (NO), and endothelin-1 (ET-1) in blood and the relaxation response of the aortic ring were determined in each subject. The vascular plaques in different treatment groups were assessed by Hematoxylin and eosin (HE) staining to investigate the therapeutic value of sulfhydryl as coadjuvant for improving nitrate ester tolerance, and changes in blood vessels in different treatment groups were studied by immunohistochemical assays. Our results showed no significant differences through time in the concentrations of •O2-, SOD, MDA, NO, ET-1 between the healthy control and the nitrate ester groups (p > 0.05). The levels of SOD and MDA in the nitrate ester tolerance group increased with time, however, the levels of •O2-, NO and ET-1 decreased gradually (p tolerance groups were significantly decreased, but SOD and MDA were significantly increased (p tolerance, and this strategy was safe and looks promising for humans.

  13. A GIS-based groundwater travel time model to evaluate stream nitrate concentration reductions from land use change

    Schilling, K.E.; Wolter, C.F.

    2007-01-01

    Excessive nitrate-nitrogen (nitrate) loss from agricultural watersheds is an environmental concern. A common conservation practice to improve stream water quality is to retire vulnerable row croplands to grass. In this paper, a groundwater travel time model based on a geographic information system (GIS) analysis of readily available soil and topographic variables was used to evaluate the time needed to observe stream nitrate concentration reductions from conversion of row crop land to native prairie in Walnut Creek watershed, Iowa. Average linear groundwater velocity in 5-m cells was estimated by overlaying GIS layers of soil permeability, land slope (surrogates for hydraulic conductivity and gradient, respectively) and porosity. Cells were summed backwards from the stream network to watershed divide to develop a travel time distribution map. Results suggested that groundwater from half of the land planted in prairie has reached the stream network during the 10 years of ongoing water quality monitoring. The mean travel time for the watershed was estimated to be 10.1 years, consistent with results from a simple analytical model. The proportion of land in the watershed and subbasins with prairie groundwater reaching the stream (10-22%) was similar to the measured reduction of stream nitrate (11-36%). Results provide encouragement that additional nitrate reductions in Walnut Creek are probable in the future as reduced nitrate groundwater from distal locations discharges to the stream network in the coming years. The high spatial resolution of the model (5-m cells) and its simplicity may make it potentially applicable for land managers interested in communicating lag time issues to the public, particularly related to nitrate concentration reductions over time. ?? 2007 Springer-Verlag.

  14. Spherical Process Models for Global Spatial Statistics

    Jeong, Jaehong; Jun, Mikyoung; Genton, Marc G.

    2017-01-01

    Statistical models used in geophysical, environmental, and climate science applications must reflect the curvature of the spatial domain in global data. Over the past few decades, statisticians have developed covariance models that capture

  15. [Effects of silver nitrate on the phase state of model multibilayer membranes].

    Vashchenko, O V; Iermak, Yu L; Krasnikova, A O; Lisetski, L N

    2015-01-01

    In order to study the effects caused by silver nitrate (AgNO3) on model lipid membranes, we studied multibilayer membranes based on L-α-dipalmitoylphosphatidylcholine (DPPC) and AgNO3 aqueous soluitions in a wide concentration range (up to 30 wt%) by means of differential scanning calorimetry. It has been shown that the presence of AgNO3 leads both to an increase in the main phase transition temperature (T(m)) and appearance of an additional phase transition peak (T(m)), suggesting increasing of both density and heterogeneity of the lipid membrane. The effect of nitrate ions (NO ) was shown to be of the opposite nature (bilayer fluidizing), so the integral densifying effect of AgNO3 can be referred solely to the action of silver ions (Ag(+)). With increasing AgNO3 concentration, the tendency was observed to opposite changes in T(m) and T'(m) peaks intensity, thereby at about 26. wt% of AgNO3 the initial peak (T(m)) disappeared. In the range of Ag+ therapeutic concentrations (up to 2 wt%) no significant changes in the DPPC membrane were revealed. This can be one of the reasons of the absence of a damaging effect of silver drugs on a host organism with simultaneous pronounced bactericidal effect.

  16. A Metagenomics-Based Metabolic Model of Nitrate-Dependent Anaerobic Oxidation of Methane by Methanoperedens-Like Archaea

    Arshad, Arslan; Speth, Daan R.; de Graaf, Rob M.; Op den Camp, Huub J. M.; Jetten, Mike S. M.; Welte, Cornelia U.

    2015-01-01

    Methane oxidation is an important process to mitigate the emission of the greenhouse gas methane and further exacerbating of climate forcing. Both aerobic and anaerobic microorganisms have been reported to catalyze methane oxidation with only a few possible electron acceptors. Recently, new microorganisms were identified that could couple the oxidation of methane to nitrate or nitrite reduction. Here we investigated such an enrichment culture at the (meta) genomic level to establish a metabolic model of nitrate-driven anaerobic oxidation of methane (nitrate-AOM). Nitrate-AOM is catalyzed by an archaeon closely related to (reverse) methanogens that belongs to the ANME-2d clade, tentatively named Methanoperedens nitroreducens. Methane may be activated by methyl-CoM reductase and subsequently undergo full oxidation to carbon dioxide via reverse methanogenesis. All enzymes of this pathway were present and expressed in the investigated culture. The genome of the archaeal enrichment culture encoded a variety of enzymes involved in an electron transport chain similar to those found in Methanosarcina species with additional features not previously found in methane-converting archaea. Nitrate reduction to nitrite seems to be located in the pseudoperiplasm and may be catalyzed by an unusual Nar-like protein complex. A small part of the resulting nitrite is reduced to ammonium which may be catalyzed by a Nrf-type nitrite reductase. One of the key questions is how electrons from cytoplasmically located reverse methanogenesis reach the nitrate reductase in the pseudoperiplasm. Electron transport in M. nitroreducens probably involves cofactor F420 in the cytoplasm, quinones in the cytoplasmic membrane and cytochrome c in the pseudoperiplasm. The membrane-bound electron transport chain includes F420H2 dehydrogenase and an unusual Rieske/cytochrome b complex. Based on genome and transcriptome studies a tentative model of how central energy metabolism of nitrate-AOM could work is

  17. Global model structures for ∗-modules

    Böhme, Benjamin

    2018-01-01

    We extend Schwede's work on the unstable global homotopy theory of orthogonal spaces and L-spaces to the category of ∗-modules (i.e., unstable S-modules). We prove a theorem which transports model structures and their properties from L-spaces to ∗-modules and show that the resulting global model...... structure for ∗-modules is monoidally Quillen equivalent to that of orthogonal spaces. As a consequence, there are induced Quillen equivalences between the associated model categories of monoids, which identify equivalent models for the global homotopy theory of A∞-spaces....

  18. Modeling hydrology, groundwater recharge and non-point nitrate loadings in the Himalayan Upper Yamuna basin

    Narula, Kapil K., E-mail: kkn2104@columbia.edu [Columbia Water Center (India Office), Columbia University, New Delhi 110 016 (India); Gosain, A.K. [Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Delhi, Hauz Khas, New Delhi 110 016 (India)

    2013-12-01

    The mountainous Himalayan watersheds are important hydrologic systems responsible for much of the water supply in the Indian sub-continent. These watersheds are increasingly facing anthropogenic and climate-related pressures that impact spatial and temporal distribution of water availability. This study evaluates temporal and spatial distribution of water availability including groundwater recharge and quality (non-point nitrate loadings) for a Himalayan watershed, namely, the Upper Yamuna watershed (part of the Ganga River basin). The watershed has an area of 11 600 km{sup 2} with elevation ranging from 6300 to 600 m above mean sea level. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a physically-based, time-continuous model, has been used to simulate the land phase of the hydrological cycle, to obtain streamflows, groundwater recharge, and nitrate (NO{sub 3}) load distributions in various components of runoff. The hydrological SWAT model is integrated with the MODular finite difference groundwater FLOW model (MODFLOW), and Modular 3-Dimensional Multi-Species Transport model (MT3DMS), to obtain groundwater flow and NO{sub 3} transport. Validation of various modules of this integrated model has been done for sub-basins of the Upper Yamuna watershed. Results on surface runoff and groundwater levels obtained as outputs from simulation show a good comparison with the observed streamflows and groundwater levels (Nash–Sutcliffe and R{sup 2} correlations greater than + 0.7). Nitrate loading obtained after nitrification, denitrification, and NO{sub 3} removal from unsaturated and shallow aquifer zones is combined with groundwater recharge. Results for nitrate modeling in groundwater aquifers are compared with observed NO{sub 3} concentration and are found to be in good agreement. The study further evaluates the sensitivity of water availability to climate change. Simulations have been made with the weather inputs of climate change scenarios of A2, B2, and A1B for end of the

  19. Modeling the long-term fate of agricultural nitrate in groundwater in the San Joaquin Valley, California

    Chapelle, Francis H.; Campbell, Bruce G.; Widdowson, Mark A.; Landon, Mathew K.

    2013-01-01

    (POC) are the primary electron donors driving active denitrification in groundwater. The purpose of this chapter is to use a numerical mass balance modeling approach to quantitatively compare sources of electron donors (DOC, POC) and electron acceptors (dissolved oxygen, nitrate, and ferric iron) in order to assess the potential for denitrification to attenuate nitrate migration in the Central Valley aquifer.

  20. A statistical learning framework for groundwater nitrate models of the Central Valley, California, USA

    Nolan, Bernard T.; Fienen, Michael N.; Lorenz, David L.

    2015-01-01

    We used a statistical learning framework to evaluate the ability of three machine-learning methods to predict nitrate concentration in shallow groundwater of the Central Valley, California: boosted regression trees (BRT), artificial neural networks (ANN), and Bayesian networks (BN). Machine learning methods can learn complex patterns in the data but because of overfitting may not generalize well to new data. The statistical learning framework involves cross-validation (CV) training and testing data and a separate hold-out data set for model evaluation, with the goal of optimizing predictive performance by controlling for model overfit. The order of prediction performance according to both CV testing R2 and that for the hold-out data set was BRT > BN > ANN. For each method we identified two models based on CV testing results: that with maximum testing R2 and a version with R2 within one standard error of the maximum (the 1SE model). The former yielded CV training R2 values of 0.94–1.0. Cross-validation testing R2 values indicate predictive performance, and these were 0.22–0.39 for the maximum R2 models and 0.19–0.36 for the 1SE models. Evaluation with hold-out data suggested that the 1SE BRT and ANN models predicted better for an independent data set compared with the maximum R2 versions, which is relevant to extrapolation by mapping. Scatterplots of predicted vs. observed hold-out data obtained for final models helped identify prediction bias, which was fairly pronounced for ANN and BN. Lastly, the models were compared with multiple linear regression (MLR) and a previous random forest regression (RFR) model. Whereas BRT results were comparable to RFR, MLR had low hold-out R2 (0.07) and explained less than half the variation in the training data. Spatial patterns of predictions by the final, 1SE BRT model agreed reasonably well with previously observed patterns of nitrate occurrence in groundwater of the Central Valley.

  1. Nitrate variability in groundwater of North Carolina using monitoring and private well data models.

    Messier, Kyle P; Kane, Evan; Bolich, Rick; Serre, Marc L

    2014-09-16

    Nitrate (NO3-) is a widespread contaminant of groundwater and surface water across the United States that has deleterious effects to human and ecological health. This study develops a model for predicting point-level groundwater NO3- at a state scale for monitoring wells and private wells of North Carolina. A land use regression (LUR) model selection procedure is developed for determining nonlinear model explanatory variables when they are known to be correlated. Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) is used to integrate the LUR model to create a LUR-BME model of spatial/temporal varying groundwater NO3- concentrations. LUR-BME results in a leave-one-out cross-validation r2 of 0.74 and 0.33 for monitoring and private wells, effectively predicting within spatial covariance ranges. Results show significant differences in the spatial distribution of groundwater NO3- contamination in monitoring versus private wells; high NO3- concentrations in the southeastern plains of North Carolina; and wastewater treatment residuals and swine confined animal feeding operations as local sources of NO3- in monitoring wells. Results are of interest to agencies that regulate drinking water sources or monitor health outcomes from ingestion of drinking water. Lastly, LUR-BME model estimates can be integrated into surface water models for more accurate management of nonpoint sources of nitrogen.

  2. Identifying critical nitrogen application rate for maize yield and nitrate leaching in a Haplic Luvisol soil using the DNDC model.

    Zhang, Yitao; Wang, Hongyuan; Liu, Shen; Lei, Qiuliang; Liu, Jian; He, Jianqiang; Zhai, Limei; Ren, Tianzhi; Liu, Hongbin

    2015-05-01

    Identification of critical nitrogen (N) application rate can provide management supports for ensuring grain yield and reducing amount of nitrate leaching to ground water. A five-year (2008-2012) field lysimeter (1 m × 2 m × 1.2 m) experiment with three N treatments (0, 180 and 240 kg Nha(-1)) was conducted to quantify maize yields and amount of nitrate leaching from a Haplic Luvisol soil in the North China Plain. The experimental data were used to calibrate and validate the process-based model of Denitrification-Decomposition (DNDC). After this, the model was used to simulate maize yield production and amount of nitrate leaching under a series of N application rates and to identify critical N application rate based on acceptable yield and amount of nitrate leaching for this cropping system. The results of model calibration and validation indicated that the model could correctly simulate maize yield and amount of nitrate leaching, with satisfactory values of RMSE-observation standard deviation ratio, model efficiency and determination coefficient. The model simulations confirmed the measurements that N application increased maize yield compared with the control, but the high N rate (240 kg Nha(-1)) did not produce more yield than the low one (120 kg Nha(-1)), and that the amount of nitrate leaching increased with increasing N application rate. The simulation results suggested that the optimal N application rate was in a range between 150 and 240 kg ha(-1), which would keep the amount of nitrate leaching below 18.4 kg NO₃(-)-Nha(-1) and meanwhile maintain acceptable maize yield above 9410 kg ha(-1). Furthermore, 180 kg Nha(-1) produced the highest yields (9837 kg ha(-1)) and comparatively lower amount of nitrate leaching (10.0 kg NO₃(-)-Nha(-1)). This study will provide a valuable reference for determining optimal N application rate (or range) in other crop systems and regions in China. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Modeling effects of nitrate from non-point sources on groundwater quality in an agricultural watershed in Prince Edward Island, Canada

    Jiang, Yefang; Somers, George

    2009-05-01

    Intensification of potato farming has contaminated groundwater with nitrate in many cases in Prince Edward Island, Canada, which raises concerns for drinking water quality and associated ecosystem protection. Numerical models were developed to simulate nitrate-N transport in groundwater and enhance understanding of the impacts of farming on water quality in the Wilmot River watershed. Nitrate is assumed non-reactive based on δ15N and δ18O in nitrate and geochemical information. The source functions were reconstructed from tile drain measurements, N budget and historical land-use information. The transport model was calibrated to long-term nitrate-N observations in the Wilmot River and verified against nitrate-N measurements in two rivers from watersheds with similar physical conditions. Simulations show groundwater flow is stratified and vertical flux decreases exponentially with depth. While it would take several years to reduce the nitrate-N in the shallow portion of the aquifer, it would take several decades or even longer to restore water quality in the deeper portions of the aquifer. Elevated nitrate-N concentrations in base flow are positively correlated with potato cropping intensity and significant reductions in nitrate-N loading are required if the nitrate level of surface water is to recover to the standard in the Canadian Water Quality Guidelines.

  4. Multi-Scale Modeling of the Gamma Radiolysis of Nitrate Solutions.

    Horne, Gregory P; Donoclift, Thomas A; Sims, Howard E; Orr, Robin M; Pimblott, Simon M

    2016-11-17

    A multiscale modeling approach has been developed for the extended time scale long-term radiolysis of aqueous systems. The approach uses a combination of stochastic track structure and track chemistry as well as deterministic homogeneous chemistry techniques and involves four key stages: radiation track structure simulation, the subsequent physicochemical processes, nonhomogeneous diffusion-reaction kinetic evolution, and homogeneous bulk chemistry modeling. The first three components model the physical and chemical evolution of an isolated radiation chemical track and provide radiolysis yields, within the extremely low dose isolated track paradigm, as the input parameters for a bulk deterministic chemistry model. This approach to radiation chemical modeling has been tested by comparison with the experimentally observed yield of nitrite from the gamma radiolysis of sodium nitrate solutions. This is a complex radiation chemical system which is strongly dependent on secondary reaction processes. The concentration of nitrite is not just dependent upon the evolution of radiation track chemistry and the scavenging of the hydrated electron and its precursors but also on the subsequent reactions of the products of these scavenging reactions with other water radiolysis products. Without the inclusion of intratrack chemistry, the deterministic component of the multiscale model is unable to correctly predict experimental data, highlighting the importance of intratrack radiation chemistry in the chemical evolution of the irradiated system.

  5. Global Health Innovation Technology Models

    Kimberly Harding

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Chronic technology and business process disparities between High Income, Low Middle Income and Low Income (HIC, LMIC, LIC research collaborators directly prevent the growth of sustainable Global Health innova‐ tion for infectious and rare diseases. There is a need for an Open Source-Open Science Architecture Framework to bridge this divide. We are proposing such a framework for consideration by the Global Health community, by utiliz‐ ing a hybrid approach of integrating agnostic Open Source technology and healthcare interoperability standards and Total Quality Management principles. We will validate this architecture framework through our programme called Project Orchid. Project Orchid is a conceptual Clinical Intelligence Exchange and Virtual Innovation platform utilizing this approach to support clinical innovation efforts for multi-national collaboration that can be locally sustainable for LIC and LMIC research cohorts. The goal is to enable LIC and LMIC research organizations to acceler‐ ate their clinical trial process maturity in the field of drug discovery, population health innovation initiatives and public domain knowledge networks. When sponsored, this concept will be tested by 12 confirmed clinical research and public health organizations in six countries. The potential impact of this platform is reduced drug discovery and public health innovation lag time and improved clinical trial interventions, due to reliable clinical intelligence and bio-surveillance across all phases of the clinical innovation process.

  6. HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM): Global

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Global HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) and U.S. Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) 3-day, daily forecast at approximately 9-km (1/12-degree)...

  7. ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V002

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) was developed jointly by the U.S. National...

  8. A Global Stock and Bond Model

    Connor, Gregory

    1996-01-01

    Factor models are now widely used to support asset selection decisions. Global asset allocation, the allocation between stocks versus bonds and among nations, usually relies instead on correlation analysis of international equity and bond indexes. It would be preferable to have a single integrated framework for both asset selection and asset allocation. This framework would require a factor model applicable at an asset or country level, as well as at a global level,...

  9. A global central banker competency model

    David W. Brits

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Orientation: No comprehensive, integrated competency model exists for central bankers. Due to the importance of central banks in the context of the ongoing global financial crisis, it was deemed necessary to design and validate such a model. Research purpose: To craft and validate a comprehensive, integrated global central banker competency model (GCBCM and to assess whether central banks using the GCBCM for training have a higher global influence. Motivation for the study: Limited consensus exists globally about what constitutes a ‘competent’ central banker. A quantitatively validated GCBCM would make a significant contribution to enhancing central banker effectiveness, and also provide a solid foundation for effective people management. Research approach, design and method: A blended quantitative and qualitative research approach was taken. Two sets of hypotheses were tested regarding the relationships between the GCBCM and the training offered, using the model on the one hand, and a central bank’s global influence on the other. Main findings: The GCBCM was generally accepted across all participating central banks globally, although some differences were found between central banks with higher and lower global influence. The actual training offered by central banks in terms of the model, however, is generally limited to technical-functional skills. The GCBCM is therefore at present predominantly aspirational. Significant differences were found regarding the training offered. Practical/managerial implications: By adopting the GCBCM, central banks would be able to develop organisation-specific competency models in order to enhance their organisational capabilities and play their increasingly important global role more effectively. Contribution: A generic conceptual framework for the crafting of a competency model with evaluation criteria was developed. A GCBCM was quantitatively validated.

  10. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R.

    1994-05-01

    The scope of the report is to present the results of the fourth year's work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals

  11. Global-warming forecasting models

    Moeller, K.P.

    1992-01-01

    In spite of an annual man-made quantity of about 20 billion tons, carbon dioxide has remained a trace gas in the atmosphere (350 ppm at present). The reliability of model calculations which forecast temperatures is dicussed in view of the world-wide increase in carbon dioxides. Computer simulations reveal a general, serious threat to the future of mankind. (DG) [de

  12. Modeling the impact of the nitrate contamination on groundwater at the groundwater body scale : The Geer basin case study (Invited)

    Brouyere, S.; Orban, P.; Hérivaux, C.

    2009-12-01

    In the next decades, groundwater managers will have to face regional degradation of the quantity and quality of groundwater under pressure of land-use and socio-economic changes. In this context, the objectives of the European Water Framework Directive require that groundwater be managed at the scale of the groundwater body, taking into account not only all components of the water cycle but also the socio-economic impact of these changes. One of the main challenges remains to develop robust and efficient numerical modeling applications at such a scale and to couple them with economic models, as a support for decision support in groundwater management. An integrated approach between hydrogeologists and economists has been developed by coupling the hydrogeological model SUFT3D and a cost-benefit economic analysis to study the impact of agricultural practices on groundwater quality and to design cost-effective mitigation measures to decrease nitrate pressure on groundwater so as to ensure the highest benefit to the society. A new modeling technique, the ‘Hybrid Finite Element Mixing Cell’ approach has been developed for large scale modeling purposes. The principle of this method is to fully couple different mathematical and numerical approaches to solve groundwater flow and solute transport problems. The mathematical and numerical approaches proposed allows an adaptation to the level of local hydrogeological knowledge and the amount of available data. In combination with long time series of nitrate concentrations and tritium data, the regional scale modelling approach has been used to develop a 3D spatially distributed groundwater flow and solute transport model for the Geer basin (Belgium) of about 480 km2. The model is able to reproduce the spatial patterns of nitrate concentrations together nitrate trends with time. The model has then been used to predict the future evolution of nitrate trends for two types of scenarios: (i) a “business as usual scenario

  13. Using Dual Isotopes and a Bayesian Isotope Mixing Model to Evaluate Nitrate Sources of Surface Water in a Drinking Water Source Watershed, East China

    Meng Wang

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available A high concentration of nitrate (NO3− in surface water threatens aquatic systems and human health. Revealing nitrate characteristics and identifying its sources are fundamental to making effective water management strategies. However, nitrate sources in multi-tributaries and mix land use watersheds remain unclear. In this study, based on 20 surface water sampling sites for more than two years’ monitoring from April 2012 to December 2014, water chemical and dual isotopic approaches (δ15N-NO3− and δ18O-NO3− were integrated for the first time to evaluate nitrate characteristics and sources in the Huashan watershed, Jianghuai hilly region, China. Nitrate-nitrogen concentrations (ranging from 0.02 to 8.57 mg/L were spatially heterogeneous that were influenced by hydrogeological and land use conditions. Proportional contributions of five potential nitrate sources (i.e., precipitation; manure and sewage, M & S; soil nitrogen, NS; nitrate fertilizer; nitrate derived from ammonia fertilizer and rainfall were estimated by using a Bayesian isotope mixing model. The results showed that nitrate sources contributions varied significantly among different rainfall conditions and land use types. As for the whole watershed, M & S (manure and sewage and NS (soil nitrogen were major nitrate sources in both wet and dry seasons (from 28% to 36% for manure and sewage and from 24% to 27% for soil nitrogen, respectively. Overall, combining a dual isotopes method with a Bayesian isotope mixing model offered a useful and practical way to qualitatively analyze nitrate sources and transformations as well as quantitatively estimate the contributions of potential nitrate sources in drinking water source watersheds, Jianghuai hilly region, eastern China.

  14. Qualitative models of global warming amplifiers

    Milošević, U.; Bredeweg, B.; de Kleer, J.; Forbus, K.D.

    2010-01-01

    There is growing interest from ecological experts to create qualitative models of phenomena for which numerical information is sparse or missing. We present a number of successful models in the field of environmental science, namely, the domain of global warming. The motivation behind the effort is

  15. Technology Learning Ratios in Global Energy Models

    Varela, M.

    2001-01-01

    The process of introduction of a new technology supposes that while its production and utilisation increases, also its operation improves and its investment costs and production decreases. The accumulation of experience and learning of a new technology increase in parallel with the increase of its market share. This process is represented by the technological learning curves and the energy sector is not detached from this process of substitution of old technologies by new ones. The present paper carries out a brief revision of the main energy models that include the technology dynamics (learning). The energy scenarios, developed by global energy models, assume that the characteristics of the technologies are variables with time. But this trend is incorporated in a exogenous way in these energy models, that is to say, it is only a time function. This practice is applied to the cost indicators of the technology such as the specific investment costs or to the efficiency of the energy technologies. In the last years, the new concept of endogenous technological learning has been integrated within these global energy models. This paper examines the concept of technological learning in global energy models. It also analyses the technological dynamics of the energy system including the endogenous modelling of the process of technological progress. Finally, it makes a comparison of several of the most used global energy models (MARKAL, MESSAGE and ERIS) and, more concretely, about the use these models make of the concept of technological learning. (Author) 17 refs

  16. Use of a Bayesian isotope mixing model to estimate proportional contributions of multiple nitrate sources in surface water

    Xue Dongmei; De Baets, Bernard; Van Cleemput, Oswald; Hennessy, Carmel; Berglund, Michael; Boeckx, Pascal

    2012-01-01

    To identify different NO 3 − sources in surface water and to estimate their proportional contribution to the nitrate mixture in surface water, a dual isotope and a Bayesian isotope mixing model have been applied for six different surface waters affected by agriculture, greenhouses in an agricultural area, and households. Annual mean δ 15 N–NO 3 − were between 8.0 and 19.4‰, while annual mean δ 18 O–NO 3 − were given by 4.5–30.7‰. SIAR was used to estimate the proportional contribution of five potential NO 3 − sources (NO 3 − in precipitation, NO 3 − fertilizer, NH 4 + in fertilizer and rain, soil N, and manure and sewage). SIAR showed that “manure and sewage” contributed highest, “soil N”, “NO 3 − fertilizer” and “NH 4 + in fertilizer and rain” contributed middle, and “NO 3 − in precipitation” contributed least. The SIAR output can be considered as a “fingerprint” for the NO 3 − source contributions. However, the wide range of isotope values observed in surface water and of the NO 3 − sources limit its applicability. - Highlights: ► The dual isotope approach (δ 15 N- and δ 18 O–NO 3 − ) identify dominant nitrate sources in 6 surface waters. ► The SIAR model estimate proportional contributions for 5 nitrate sources. ► SIAR is a reliable approach to assess temporal and spatial variations of different NO 3 − sources. ► The wide range of isotope values observed in surface water and of the nitrate sources limit its applicability. - This paper successfully applied a dual isotope approach and Bayesian isotopic mixing model to identify and quantify 5 potential nitrate sources in surface water.

  17. Nitrate and ammonium lead to distinct global dynamic phosphorylation patterns when resupplied to nitrogen-starved Arabidopsis seedlings.

    Engelsberger, Wolfgang R; Schulze, Waltraud X

    2012-03-01

    Nitrogen is an essential macronutrient for plant growth and development. Inorganic nitrogen and its assimilation products control various metabolic, physiological and developmental processes. Although the transcriptional responses induced by nitrogen have been extensively studied in the past, our work here focused on the discovery of candidate proteins for regulatory events that are complementary to transcriptional changes. Most signaling pathways involve modulation of protein abundance and/or activity by protein phosphorylation. Therefore, we analyzed the dynamic changes in protein phosphorylation in membrane and soluble proteins from plants exposed to rapid changes in nutrient availability over a time course of 30 min. Plants were starved of nitrogen and subsequently resupplied with nitrogen in the form of nitrate or ammonium. Proteins with maximum change in their phosphorylation level at up to 5 min after nitrogen resupply (fast responses) included GPI-anchored proteins, receptor kinases and transcription factors, while proteins with maximum change in their phosphorylation level after 10 min of nitrogen resupply (late responses) included proteins involved in protein synthesis and degradation, as well as proteins with functions in central metabolism and hormone metabolism. Resupply of nitrogen in the form of nitrate or ammonium resulted in distinct phosphorylation patterns, mainly of proteins with signaling functions, transcription factors and transporters. © 2011 The Authors. The Plant Journal © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  18. Modeling the long-term effect of winter cover crops on nitrate transport in artificially drained fields across the Midwest U.S.

    A fall-planted cover crop is a management practice with multiple benefits including reducing nitrate losses from artificially drained fields. We used the Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM) to simulate the impact of a cereal rye cover crop on reducing nitrate losses from drained fields across five...

  19. Modeling nitrate from land surface to wells' perforations under agricultural land: success, failure, and future scenarios in a Mediterranean case study

    Levy, Yehuda; Shapira, Roi H.; Chefetz, Benny; Kurtzman, Daniel

    2017-07-01

    Contamination of groundwater resources by nitrate leaching under agricultural land is probably the most troublesome agriculture-related water contamination worldwide. Contaminated areas often show large spatial variability of nitrate concentration in wells. In this study, we tried to assess whether this spatial variability can be characterized on the basis of land use and standard agricultural practices. Deep soil sampling (10 m) was used to calibrate vertical flow and nitrogen-transport numerical models of the unsaturated zone under different agricultural land uses. Vegetable fields (potato and strawberry) and deciduous orchards (persimmon) in the Sharon area overlying the coastal aquifer of Israel were examined. Average nitrate-nitrogen fluxes below vegetable fields were 210-290 kg ha-1 yr-1 and under deciduous orchards were 110-140 kg ha-1 yr-1. The output water and nitrate-nitrogen fluxes of the unsaturated-zone models were used as input data for a three-dimensional flow and nitrate-transport model in the aquifer under an area of 13.3 km2 of agricultural land. The area was subdivided into four agricultural land uses: vegetables, deciduous orchards, citrus orchards, and non-cultivated. Fluxes of water and nitrate-nitrogen below citrus orchards were taken from a previous study in the area. The groundwater flow model was calibrated to well heads by changing the hydraulic conductivity. The nitrate-transport model, which was fed by the above-mentioned models of the unsaturated zone, succeeded in reconstructing the average nitrate concentration in the wells. However, this transport model failed in calculating the high concentrations in the most contaminated wells and the large spatial variability of nitrate concentrations in the aquifer. To reconstruct the spatial variability and enable predictions, nitrate fluxes from the unsaturated zone were multiplied by local multipliers. This action was rationalized by the fact that the high concentrations in some wells cannot

  20. Modeling interactions of agriculture and groundwater nitrate contaminants: application of The STICS-Eau-Dyssée coupled models over the Seine River Basin

    Tavakoly, A. A.; Habets, F.; Saleh, F.; Yang, Z. L.

    2017-12-01

    Human activities such as the cultivation of N-fixing crops, burning of fossil fuels, discharging of industrial and domestic effluents, and extensive usage of fertilizers have recently accelerated the nitrogen loading to watersheds worldwide. Increasing nitrate concentration in surface water and groundwater is a major concern in watersheds with extensive agricultural activities. Nutrient enrichment is one of the major environmental problems in the French coastal zone. To understand and predict interactions between agriculture, surface water and groundwater nitrate contaminants, this study presents a modeling framework that couples the agronomic STICS model with Eau-Dyssée, a distributed hydrologic modeling system to simulate groundwater-surface water interaction. The coupled system is implemented on the Seine River Basin with an area of 88,000 km2 to compute daily nitrate contaminants. Representing a sophisticated hydrosystem with several aquifers and including the megalopolis of Paris, the Seine River Basin is well-known as one of the most productive agricultural areas in France. The STICS-EauDyssée framework is evaluated for a long-term simulation covering 39 years (1971-2010). Model results show that the simulated nitrate highly depends on the inflow produced by surface and subsurface waters. Daily simulation shows that the model captures the seasonal variation of observations and that the overall long-term simulation of nitrate contaminant is satisfactory at the regional scale.

  1. New global ICT-based business models

    The New Global Business model (NEWGIBM) book describes the background, theory references, case studies, results and learning imparted by the NEWGIBM project, which is supported by ICT, to a research group during the period from 2005-2011. The book is a result of the efforts and the collaborative ...... The NEWGIBM Cases Show? The Strategy Concept in Light of the Increased Importance of Innovative Business Models Successful Implementation of Global BM Innovation Globalisation Of ICT Based Business Models: Today And In 2020......The New Global Business model (NEWGIBM) book describes the background, theory references, case studies, results and learning imparted by the NEWGIBM project, which is supported by ICT, to a research group during the period from 2005-2011. The book is a result of the efforts and the collaborative....... The NEWGIBM book serves as a part of the final evaluation and documentation of the NEWGIBM project and is supported by results from the following projects: M-commerce, Global Innovation, Global Ebusiness & M-commerce, The Blue Ocean project, International Center for Innovation and Women in Business, NEFFICS...

  2. A high resolution global scale groundwater model

    de Graaf, Inge; Sutanudjaja, Edwin; van Beek, Rens; Bierkens, Marc

    2014-05-01

    As the world's largest accessible source of freshwater, groundwater plays a vital role in satisfying the basic needs of human society. It serves as a primary source of drinking water and supplies water for agricultural and industrial activities. During times of drought, groundwater storage provides a large natural buffer against water shortage and sustains flows to rivers and wetlands, supporting ecosystem habitats and biodiversity. Yet, the current generation of global scale hydrological models (GHMs) do not include a groundwater flow component, although it is a crucial part of the hydrological cycle. Thus, a realistic physical representation of the groundwater system that allows for the simulation of groundwater head dynamics and lateral flows is essential for GHMs that increasingly run at finer resolution. In this study we present a global groundwater model with a resolution of 5 arc-minutes (approximately 10 km at the equator) using MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh, 1988). With this global groundwater model we eventually intend to simulate the changes in the groundwater system over time that result from variations in recharge and abstraction. Aquifer schematization and properties of this groundwater model were developed from available global lithological maps and datasets (Dürr et al., 2005; Gleeson et al., 2010; Hartmann and Moosdorf, 2013), combined with our estimate of aquifer thickness for sedimentary basins. We forced the groundwater model with the output from the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB (van Beek et al., 2011), specifically the net groundwater recharge and average surface water levels derived from routed channel discharge. For the parameterization, we relied entirely on available global datasets and did not calibrate the model so that it can equally be expanded to data poor environments. Based on our sensitivity analysis, in which we run the model with various hydrogeological parameter settings, we observed that most variance in groundwater

  3. Modeling Global Biogenic Emission of Isoprene: Exploration of Model Drivers

    Alexander, Susan E.; Potter, Christopher S.; Coughlan, Joseph C.; Klooster, Steven A.; Lerdau, Manuel T.; Chatfield, Robert B.; Peterson, David L. (Technical Monitor)

    1996-01-01

    Vegetation provides the major source of isoprene emission to the atmosphere. We present a modeling approach to estimate global biogenic isoprene emission. The isoprene flux model is linked to a process-based computer simulation model of biogenic trace-gas fluxes that operates on scales that link regional and global data sets and ecosystem nutrient transformations Isoprene emission estimates are determined from estimates of ecosystem specific biomass, emission factors, and algorithms based on light and temperature. Our approach differs from an existing modeling framework by including the process-based global model for terrestrial ecosystem production, satellite derived ecosystem classification, and isoprene emission measurements from a tropical deciduous forest. We explore the sensitivity of model estimates to input parameters. The resulting emission products from the global 1 degree x 1 degree coverage provided by the satellite datasets and the process model allow flux estimations across large spatial scales and enable direct linkage to atmospheric models of trace-gas transport and transformation.

  4. Spatial and temporal changes in the structure of groundwater nitrate concentration time series (1935 1999) as demonstrated by autoregressive modelling

    Jones, A. L.; Smart, P. L.

    2005-08-01

    Autoregressive modelling is used to investigate the internal structure of long-term (1935-1999) records of nitrate concentration for five karst springs in the Mendip Hills. There is a significant short term (1-2 months) positive autocorrelation at three of the five springs due to the availability of sufficient nitrate within the soil store to maintain concentrations in winter recharge for several months. The absence of short term (1-2 months) positive autocorrelation in the other two springs is due to the marked contrast in land use between the limestone and swallet parts of the catchment, rapid concentrated recharge from the latter causing short term switching in the dominant water source at the spring and thus fluctuating nitrate concentrations. Significant negative autocorrelation is evident at lags varying from 4 to 7 months through to 14-22 months for individual springs, with positive autocorrelation at 19-20 months at one site. This variable timing is explained by moderation of the exhaustion effect in the soil by groundwater storage, which gives longer residence times in large catchments and those with a dominance of diffuse flow. The lags derived from autoregressive modelling may therefore provide an indication of average groundwater residence times. Significant differences in the structure of the autocorrelation function for successive 10-year periods are evident at Cheddar Spring, and are explained by the effect the ploughing up of grasslands during the Second World War and increased fertiliser usage on available nitrogen in the soil store. This effect is moderated by the influence of summer temperatures on rates of mineralization, and of both summer and winter rainfall on the timing and magnitude of nitrate leaching. The pattern of nitrate leaching also appears to have been perturbed by the 1976 drought.

  5. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R.

    1994-05-01

    This report was prepared by the Applied Research Corporation (ARC), College Station, Texas, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate studies task. The task supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and is part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work is under the overall direction of the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), US Department of Energy Headquarters, Washington, DC. The scope of the report is to present the results of the third year's work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain several studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals

  6. Nitrate-Mediated Microbially Enhanced Oil Recovery (N-MEOR) from model upflow bioreactors.

    Gassara, Fatma; Suri, Navreet; Voordouw, Gerrit

    2017-02-15

    Microbially Enhanced Oil Recovery (MEOR) can enhance oil production with less energy input and less costs than other technologies. The present study used different aqueous electron donors (acetate, glucose, molasses) and an aqueous electron acceptor (nitrate) to stimulate growth of heterotrophic nitrate reducing bacteria (hNRB) to improve production of oil. Initial flooding of columns containing heavy oil (viscosity of 3400cP at 20°C) with CSBK (Coleville synthetic brine medium) produced 0.5 pore volume (PV) of oil. Bioreactors were then inoculated with hNRB with 5.8g/L of molasses and 0, 10, 20, 40, 60 or 80mM nitrate, as well as with 17mM glucose or 57mM acetate and 80mM nitrate. During incubations no oil was produced in the bioreactors that received 5.8g/L of molasses and 0, 10, 20, 40 or 60mM nitrate. However, the bioreactors injected with 5.8g/L of molasses, 17mM glucose or 57mM acetate and 80mM nitrate produced 13.9, 11.3±3.1 and 17.8±6.6% of residual oil, respectively. The significant production of oil from these bioreactors may be caused by N 2 -CO 2 gas production. Following continued injection with CSBK without nitrate, subsequent elution of significant residual oil (5-30%) was observed. These results also indicate possible involvement of fermentation products (organic acids, alcohols) to enhance heavy oil recovery. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Modeling riverine nitrate export from an East-Central Illinois watershed using SWAT.

    Hu, X; McIsaac, G F; David, M B; Louwers, C A L

    2007-01-01

    Reliable water quality models are needed to forecast the water quality consequences of different agricultural nutrient management scenarios. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), version 2000, was applied to simulate streamflow, riverine nitrate (NO(3)) export, crop yield, and watershed nitrogen (N) budgets in the upper Embarras River (UER) watershed in east-central Illinois, which has extensive maize-soybean cultivation, large N fertilizer input, and extensive tile drainage. During the calibration (1994-2002) and validation (1985-1993) periods, SWAT simulated monthly and annual stream flows with Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients (E) ranging from 0.67 to 0.94 and R(2) from 0.75 to 0.95. For monthly and annual NO(3) loads, E ranged from -0.16 to 0.45 and R(2) from 0.36 to 0.74. Annual maize and soybean yields were simulated with relative errors ranging from -10 to 6%. The model was then used to predict the changes in NO(3) output with N fertilizer application rates 10 to 50% lower than original application rates in UER. The calibrated SWAT predicted a 10 to 43% decrease in NO(3) export from UER and a 6 to 38% reduction in maize yield in response to the reduction in N fertilizer. The SWAT model markedly overestimated NO(3) export during major wet periods. Moreover, SWAT estimated soybean N fixation rates considerably greater than literature values, and some simulated changes in the N cycle in response to fertilizer reduction seemed to be unrealistic. Improving these aspects of SWAT could lead to more reliable predictions in the water quality outcomes of nutrient management practices in tile-drained watersheds.

  8. Simultaneous removal of sulfide, nitrate and acetate under denitrifying sulfide removal condition: Modeling and experimental validation

    Xu, Xijun; Chen, Chuan; Wang, Aijie; Guo, Wanqian; Zhou, Xu [State Key Laboratory of Urban Water Resource and Environment, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150090 (China); Lee, Duu-Jong, E-mail: djlee@ntu.edu.tw [State Key Laboratory of Urban Water Resource and Environment, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150090 (China); Department of Chemical Engineering, National Taiwan University, Taipei 106, Taiwan (China); Department of Chemical Engineering, National Taiwan University of Science and Technology, Taipei 106, Taiwan (China); Ren, Nanqi, E-mail: rnq@hit.edu.cn [State Key Laboratory of Urban Water Resource and Environment, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150090 (China); Chang, Jo-Shu [Research Center for Energy Technology and Strategy, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan (China)

    2014-01-15

    Graphical abstract: Model evaluation applied to case study 1: (A-G) S{sup 2−}, NO{sub 3}{sup −}-N, NO{sub 2}{sup −}-N, and Ac{sup −}-C profiles under initial sulfide concentrations of 156.2 (A), 539 (B), 964 (C), 1490 (D), 342.7 (E), 718 (F), and 1140.7 (G) mg L{sup −1}. The solid line represents simulated result and scatter represents experimental result. -- Highlights: • This work developed a mathematical model for DSR process. • Kinetics of sulfur–nitrogen–carbon and interactions between denitrifiers were studied. • Kinetic parameters of the model were estimated via data fitting. • The model described kinetic behaviors of DSR processes over wide parametric range. -- Abstract: Simultaneous removal of sulfide (S{sup 2−}), nitrate (NO{sub 3}{sup −}) and acetate (Ac{sup −}) under denitrifying sulfide removal process (DSR) is a novel biological wastewater treatment process. This work developed a mathematical model to describe the kinetic behavior of sulfur–nitrogen–carbon and interactions between autotrophic denitrifiers and heterotrophic denitrifiers. The kinetic parameters of the model were estimated via data fitting considering the effects of initial S{sup 2−} concentration, S{sup 2−}/NO{sub 3}{sup −}-N ratio and Ac{sup −}-C/NO{sub 3}{sup −}-N ratio. Simulation supported that the heterotrophic denitratation step (NO{sub 3}{sup −} reduction to NO{sub 2}{sup −}) was inhibited by S{sup 2−} compared with the denitritation step (NO{sub 2}{sup −} reduction to N{sub 2}). Also, the S{sup 2−} oxidation by autotrophic denitrifiers was shown two times lower in rate with NO{sub 2}{sup −} as electron acceptor than that with NO{sub 3}{sup −} as electron acceptor. NO{sub 3}{sup −} reduction by autotrophic denitrifiers occurs 3–10 times slower when S{sup 0} participates as final electron donor compared to the S{sup 2−}-driven pathway. Model simulation on continuous-flow DSR reactor suggested that the adjustment of

  9. Assessing the ammonium nitrate formation regime in the Paris megacity and its representation in the CHIMERE model

    H. Petetin

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Secondary inorganic compounds represent a major fraction of fine aerosol in the Paris megacity. The thermodynamics behind their formation is now relatively well constrained but, due to sparse direct measurements of their precursors (in particular NH3 and HNO3, uncertainties remain on their concentrations and variability as well as the formation regime of ammonium nitrate (in terms of limited species among NH3 and HNO3 in urban environments such as Paris. This study presents the first urban background measurements of both inorganic aerosol compounds and their gaseous precursors during several months within the city of Paris. Intense agriculture-related NH3 episodes are observed in spring/summer while HNO3 concentrations remain relatively low, even during summer, which leads to a NH3-rich regime in Paris. The local formation of ammonium nitrate within the city appears low, despite high NOx emissions. The data set also allows evaluating the CHIMERE chemistry-transport model (CTM. Interestingly, the rather good results obtained on ammonium nitrates hide significant errors on gaseous precursors (e.g., mean bias of −75 and +195 % for NH3 and HNO3, respectively. This leads to a misrepresentation of the nitrate formation regime through a highly underestimated gas ratio metric (introduced by Ansari and Pandis, 1998 and a much higher sensitivity of nitrate concentrations to ammonia changes. Several uncertainty sources are investigated, pointing out the importance of better assessing both NH3 agricultural emissions and OH concentrations in the future. These results remind us of the caution required when using of CTMs for emission scenario analysis, highlighting the importance of prior diagnostic and dynamic evaluations.

  10. A hybrid machine learning model to estimate nitrate contamination of production zone groundwater in the Central Valley, California

    Ransom, K.; Nolan, B. T.; Faunt, C. C.; Bell, A.; Gronberg, J.; Traum, J.; Wheeler, D. C.; Rosecrans, C.; Belitz, K.; Eberts, S.; Harter, T.

    2016-12-01

    A hybrid, non-linear, machine learning statistical model was developed within a statistical learning framework to predict nitrate contamination of groundwater to depths of approximately 500 m below ground surface in the Central Valley, California. A database of 213 predictor variables representing well characteristics, historical and current field and county scale nitrogen mass balance, historical and current landuse, oxidation/reduction conditions, groundwater flow, climate, soil characteristics, depth to groundwater, and groundwater age were assigned to over 6,000 private supply and public supply wells measured previously for nitrate and located throughout the study area. The machine learning method, gradient boosting machine (GBM) was used to screen predictor variables and rank them in order of importance in relation to the groundwater nitrate measurements. The top five most important predictor variables included oxidation/reduction characteristics, historical field scale nitrogen mass balance, climate, and depth to 60 year old water. Twenty-two variables were selected for the final model and final model errors for log-transformed hold-out data were R squared of 0.45 and root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.124. Modeled mean groundwater age was tested separately for error improvement in the model and when included decreased model RMSE by 0.5% compared to the same model without age and by 0.20% compared to the model with all 213 variables. 1D and 2D partial plots were examined to determine how variables behave individually and interact in the model. Some variables behaved as expected: log nitrate decreased with increasing probability of anoxic conditions and depth to 60 year old water, generally decreased with increasing natural landuse surrounding wells and increasing mean groundwater age, generally increased with increased minimum depth to high water table and with increased base flow index value. Other variables exhibited much more erratic or noisy behavior in

  11. Fate of acetone in an outdoor model stream with a nitrate supplement, southern Mississippi, U.S.A.

    Rathbun, R.E.; Stephens, D.W.; Tai, D.Y.

    1991-01-01

    The fate of acetone in an outdoor model stream to which nitrate was added as a nutrient supplement was determined. The stream, in southern Mississippi, U.S.A. was 234 m long. Water was supplied to the stream by an artesian well at about 1.21 s-1, resulting in a mean water velocity of about 0.5 m min-1. Acetone was injected continuously for 26 days resulting in concentrations of 20-40 mg l-1. A nitrate solution was injected for 21 days resulting in an instream concentration of about 1.7 mg l-1 at the upstream end of the stream. Rhodamine-WT dye was used to determine the travel time and dispersion characteristics of the stream, and t-butyl alcohol was used to determine the volatilization characteristics. Volatilization controlled the fate of acetone in the model stream. The lack of substantial bacterial degradation of acetone was contrary to expectations based on the results of laboratory degradation studies using model stream water enriched with nitrate. A possible explanation for the lack of significant degradation in the model stream may be the limited 6-h residence time of the acetone in the stream. ?? 1991.

  12. Agricultural Recharge Practices for Managing Nitrate in Regional Groundwater: Time-Resolution Assessment of Numerical Modeling Approach

    Bastani, M.; Harter, T.

    2017-12-01

    Intentional recharge practices in irrigated landscapes are promising options to control and remediate groundwater quality degradation with respect to nitrate. To better understand the effect of these practices, a fully 3D transient heterogeneous transport model simulation is developed using MODFLOW and MT3D. The model is developed for a long-term study of nitrate improvements in an alluvial groundwater basin in Eastern San Joaquin Valley, CA. Different scenarios of agricultural recharge strategies including crop type change and winter flood flows are investigated. Transient simulations with high spatio-temporal resolutions are performed. We then consider upscaling strategies that would allow us to simplify the modeling process such that it can be applied at a very large basin-scale (1000s of square kilometers) for scenario analysis. We specifically consider upscaling of time-variant boundary conditions (both internal and external) that have significant influence on calculation cost of the model. We compare monthly transient stresses to upscaled annual and further upscaled average steady-state stresses on nitrate transport in groundwater under recharge scenarios.

  13. Global thermal models of the lithosphere

    Cammarano, F.; Guerri, M.

    2017-12-01

    Unraveling the thermal structure of the outermost shell of our planet is key for understanding its evolution. We obtain temperatures from interpretation of global shear-velocity (VS) models. Long-wavelength thermal structure is well determined by seismic models and only slightly affected by compositional effects and uncertainties in mineral-physics properties. Absolute temperatures and gradients with depth, however, are not well constrained. Adding constraints from petrology, heat-flow observations and thermal evolution of oceanic lithosphere help to better estimate absolute temperatures in the top part of the lithosphere. We produce global thermal models of the lithosphere at different spatial resolution, up to spherical-harmonics degree 24, and provide estimated standard deviations. We provide purely seismic thermal (TS) model and hybrid models where temperatures are corrected with steady-state conductive geotherms on continents and cooling model temperatures on oceanic regions. All relevant physical properties, with the exception of thermal conductivity, are based on a self-consistent thermodynamical modelling approach. Our global thermal models also include density and compressional-wave velocities (VP) as obtained either assuming no lateral variations in composition or a simple reference 3-D compositional structure, which takes into account a chemically depleted continental lithosphere. We found that seismically-derived temperatures in continental lithosphere fit well, overall, with continental geotherms, but a large variation in radiogenic heat is required to reconcile them with heat flow (long wavelength) observations. Oceanic shallow lithosphere below mid-oceanic ridges and young oceans is colder than expected, confirming the possible presence of a dehydration boundary around 80 km depth already suggested in previous studies. The global thermal models should serve as the basis to move at a smaller spatial scale, where additional thermo-chemical variations

  14. Mathematical Modelling of Nitrate Removal from Water Using a Submerged Membrane Adsorption Hybrid System with Four Adsorbents

    Mahatheva Kalaruban

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Excessive concentrations of nitrate in ground water are known to cause human health hazards. A submerged membrane adsorption hybrid system that includes a microfilter membrane and four different adsorbents (Dowex 21K XLT ion exchange resin (Dowex, Fe-coated Dowex, amine-grafted (AG corn cob and AG coconut copra operated at four different fluxes was used to continuously remove nitrate. The experimental data obtained in this study was simulated mathematically with a homogeneous surface diffusion model that incorporated membrane packing density and membrane correlation coefficient, and applied the concept of continuous flow stirred tank reactor. The model fit with experimental data was good. The surface diffusion coefficient was constant for all adsorbents and for all fluxes. The mass transfer coefficient increased with flux for all adsorbents and generally increased with the adsorption capacity of the adsorbents.

  15. Spherical Process Models for Global Spatial Statistics

    Jeong, Jaehong

    2017-11-28

    Statistical models used in geophysical, environmental, and climate science applications must reflect the curvature of the spatial domain in global data. Over the past few decades, statisticians have developed covariance models that capture the spatial and temporal behavior of these global data sets. Though the geodesic distance is the most natural metric for measuring distance on the surface of a sphere, mathematical limitations have compelled statisticians to use the chordal distance to compute the covariance matrix in many applications instead, which may cause physically unrealistic distortions. Therefore, covariance functions directly defined on a sphere using the geodesic distance are needed. We discuss the issues that arise when dealing with spherical data sets on a global scale and provide references to recent literature. We review the current approaches to building process models on spheres, including the differential operator, the stochastic partial differential equation, the kernel convolution, and the deformation approaches. We illustrate realizations obtained from Gaussian processes with different covariance structures and the use of isotropic and nonstationary covariance models through deformations and geographical indicators for global surface temperature data. To assess the suitability of each method, we compare their log-likelihood values and prediction scores, and we end with a discussion of related research problems.

  16. On coupling global biome models with climate models

    Claussen, M.

    1994-01-01

    The BIOME model of Prentice et al. (1992; J. Biogeogr. 19: 117-134), which predicts global vegetation patterns in equilibrium with climate, was coupled with the ECHAM climate model of the Max-Planck-Institut fiir Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany. It was found that incorporation of the BIOME model into ECHAM, regardless at which frequency, does not enhance the simulated climate variability, expressed in terms of differences between global vegetation patterns. Strongest changes are seen only betw...

  17. COLUMBUS. A global gas market model

    Hecking, Harald; Panke, Timo

    2012-03-15

    A model of the global gas market is presented which in its basic version optimises the future development of production, transport and storage capacities as well as the actual gas flows around the world assuming perfect competition. Besides the transport of natural gas via pipelines also the global market for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is modelled using a hub-and-spoke approach. While in the basic version of the model an inelastic demand and a piecewise-linear supply function are used, both can be changed easily, e.g. to a Golombek style production function or a constant elasticity of substitution (CES) demand function. Due to the usage of mixed complementary programming (MCP) the model additionally allows for the simulation of strategic behaviour of different players in the gas market, e.g. the gas producers.

  18. Nitrate reduction in geologically heterogeneous catchments — A framework for assessing the scale of predictive capability of hydrological models

    Refsgaard, Jens Christian; Auken, Esben; Bamberg, Charlotte A.; Christensen, Britt S.B.; Clausen, Thomas; Dalgaard, Esben; Effersø, Flemming; Ernstsen, Vibeke; Gertz, Flemming; Hansen, Anne Lausten; He, Xin; Jacobsen, Brian H.; Jensen, Karsten Høgh; Jørgensen, Flemming; Jørgensen, Lisbeth Flindt; Koch, Julian; Nilsson, Bertel; Petersen, Christian; De Schepper, Guillaume; Schamper, Cyril

    2014-01-01

    In order to fulfil the requirements of the EU Water Framework Directive nitrate load from agricultural areas to surface water in Denmark needs to be reduced by about 40%. The regulations imposed until now have been uniform, i.e. the same restrictions for all areas independent of the subsurface conditions. Studies have shown that on a national basis about 2/3 of the nitrate leaching from the root zone is reduced naturally, through denitrification, in the subsurface before reaching the streams. Therefore, it is more cost-effective to identify robust areas, where nitrate leaching through the root zone is reduced in the saturated zone before reaching the streams, and vulnerable areas, where no subsurface reduction takes place, and then only impose regulations/restrictions on the vulnerable areas. Distributed hydrological models can make predictions at grid scale, i.e. at much smaller scale than the entire catchment. However, as distributed models often do not include local scale hydrogeological heterogeneities, they are typically not able to make accurate predictions at scales smaller than they are calibrated. We present a framework for assessing nitrate reduction in the subsurface and for assessing at which spatial scales modelling tools have predictive capabilities. A new instrument has been developed for airborne geophysical measurements, Mini-SkyTEM, dedicated to identifying geological structures and heterogeneities with horizontal and lateral resolutions of 30–50 m and 2 m, respectively, in the upper 30 m. The geological heterogeneity and uncertainty are further analysed by use of the geostatistical software TProGS by generating stochastic geological realisations that are soft conditioned against the geophysical data. Finally, the flow paths within the catchment are simulated by use of the MIKE SHE hydrological modelling system for each of the geological models generated by TProGS and the prediction uncertainty is characterised by the variance between the

  19. Nitrate reduction in geologically heterogeneous catchments — A framework for assessing the scale of predictive capability of hydrological models

    Refsgaard, Jens Christian, E-mail: jcr@geus.dk [Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) (Denmark); Auken, Esben [Department of Earth Sciences, Aarhus University (Denmark); Bamberg, Charlotte A. [City of Aarhus (Denmark); Christensen, Britt S.B. [Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) (Denmark); Clausen, Thomas [DHI, Hørsholm (Denmark); Dalgaard, Esben [Department of Earth Sciences, Aarhus University (Denmark); Effersø, Flemming [SkyTEM Aps, Beder (Denmark); Ernstsen, Vibeke [Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) (Denmark); Gertz, Flemming [Knowledge Center for Agriculture, Skejby (Denmark); Hansen, Anne Lausten [Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen (Denmark); He, Xin [Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) (Denmark); Jacobsen, Brian H. [Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen (Denmark); Jensen, Karsten Høgh [Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen (Denmark); Jørgensen, Flemming; Jørgensen, Lisbeth Flindt [Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) (Denmark); Koch, Julian [Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen (Denmark); Nilsson, Bertel [Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) (Denmark); Petersen, Christian [City of Odder (Denmark); De Schepper, Guillaume [Université Laval, Québec (Canada); Schamper, Cyril [Department of Earth Sciences, Aarhus University (Denmark); and others

    2014-01-01

    In order to fulfil the requirements of the EU Water Framework Directive nitrate load from agricultural areas to surface water in Denmark needs to be reduced by about 40%. The regulations imposed until now have been uniform, i.e. the same restrictions for all areas independent of the subsurface conditions. Studies have shown that on a national basis about 2/3 of the nitrate leaching from the root zone is reduced naturally, through denitrification, in the subsurface before reaching the streams. Therefore, it is more cost-effective to identify robust areas, where nitrate leaching through the root zone is reduced in the saturated zone before reaching the streams, and vulnerable areas, where no subsurface reduction takes place, and then only impose regulations/restrictions on the vulnerable areas. Distributed hydrological models can make predictions at grid scale, i.e. at much smaller scale than the entire catchment. However, as distributed models often do not include local scale hydrogeological heterogeneities, they are typically not able to make accurate predictions at scales smaller than they are calibrated. We present a framework for assessing nitrate reduction in the subsurface and for assessing at which spatial scales modelling tools have predictive capabilities. A new instrument has been developed for airborne geophysical measurements, Mini-SkyTEM, dedicated to identifying geological structures and heterogeneities with horizontal and lateral resolutions of 30–50 m and 2 m, respectively, in the upper 30 m. The geological heterogeneity and uncertainty are further analysed by use of the geostatistical software TProGS by generating stochastic geological realisations that are soft conditioned against the geophysical data. Finally, the flow paths within the catchment are simulated by use of the MIKE SHE hydrological modelling system for each of the geological models generated by TProGS and the prediction uncertainty is characterised by the variance between the

  20. GLOMO - Global Mobility Model: Beschreibung und Ergebnisse

    Kühn, André; Novinsky, Patrick; Schade, Wolfgang

    2014-01-01

    The development of both, emerging markets as well as the already establish markets (USA, Japan, Europe), is highly relevant for future success of the export-oriented German automotive industry. This paper describes the so called Global Mobility Model (GLOMO) based on the system dynamics approach, which simulates the future development of car sales by segment and drive technology. The modularized model contains population, income and GDP development in order to describe the framework in the mo...

  1. Validation of A Global Hydrological Model

    Doell, P.; Lehner, B.; Kaspar, F.; Vassolo, S.

    Freshwater availability has been recognized as a global issue, and its consistent quan- tification not only in individual river basins but also at the global scale is required to support the sustainable use of water. The Global Hydrology Model WGHM, which is a submodel of the global water use and availability model WaterGAP 2, computes sur- face runoff, groundwater recharge and river discharge at a spatial resolution of 0.5. WGHM is based on the best global data sets currently available, including a newly developed drainage direction map and a data set of wetlands, lakes and reservoirs. It calculates both natural and actual discharge by simulating the reduction of river discharge by human water consumption (as computed by the water use submodel of WaterGAP 2). WGHM is calibrated against observed discharge at 724 gauging sta- tions (representing about 50% of the global land area) by adjusting a parameter of the soil water balance. It not only computes the long-term average water resources but also water availability indicators that take into account the interannual and seasonal variability of runoff and discharge. The reliability of the model results is assessed by comparing observed and simulated discharges at the calibration stations and at se- lected other stations. We conclude that reliable results can be obtained for basins of more than 20,000 km2. In particular, the 90% reliable monthly discharge is simu- lated well. However, there is the tendency that semi-arid and arid basins are modeled less satisfactorily than humid ones, which is partially due to neglecting river channel losses and evaporation of runoff from small ephemeral ponds in the model. Also, the hydrology of highly developed basins with large artificial storages, basin transfers and irrigation schemes cannot be simulated well. The seasonality of discharge in snow- dominated basins is overestimated by WGHM, and if the snow-dominated basin is uncalibrated, discharge is likely to be underestimated

  2. Modeling of Nitrate Leaching from a Potato Field using HYDRUS-2D

    Shekofteh, Hosein; Afyuni, Majid; Hajabbasi, Mohammad Ali

    2013-01-01

    Excessive use of nitrogen (N) fertilizers is likely to be responsible for the increasing nitrate in groundwater. Thus, appropriate water and nutrient management is required to minimize groundwater pollution and to maximize the nutrient-use efficiency. In this study HYDRUS-2D software package...... was applied to simulate nitrate leaching from a drip-irrigated sandy agricultural soil for varying emitter discharges and various amounts of fertilizer. It was found that for small emitter discharge values free drainage increased significantly with increase in discharge, whereas the increase was leveled out...... at greater discharge values. Nitrate leaching increased with an increase in emitter discharge and amount of fertilizer, but the rate of increase was most significant for low emitter discharges. Based on the results, with regard to the selection of emitter discharge and the amount of appropriate fertilizer...

  3. A model for global cycling of tritium

    Killough, G.G.; Kocher, D.C.

    1988-01-01

    Dynamic compartment models are widely used to describe global cycling of radionuclides for purposes of dose estimation. In this paper the authors present a new global tritium model that reproduces environmental time-series data on concentrations in precipitation, ocean surface waters, and surface fresh waters in the northern hemisphere, concentrations of atmospheric tritium in the southern hemisphere, and the latitude dependence of tritium in both hemispheres. Names TRICYCLE (for TRItium CYCLE) the model is based on the global hydrologic cycle and includes hemispheric stratospheric compartments, disaggregation of the troposphere and ocean surface waters into eight latitude zones, consideration of the different concentrations of atmospheric tritium over land and over the ocean, and a diffusive model for transport in the ocean. TRICYCLE reproduces the environmental data if it is assumed that about 50% of the tritium from atmospheric weapons testing was injected directly into the northern stratosphere as HTO. The model's latitudinal disaggregation permits taking into account the distribution of population. For a uniformly distributed release of HTO into the worldwide troposphere, TRICYCLE predicts a collective dose commitment to the world population that exceeds the NCRP model's corresponding prediction by a factor of three

  4. A model for global cycling of tritium

    Killough, G.G.; Kocher, D.C.

    1988-01-01

    Dynamic compartment models are widely used to describe global cycling of radionuclides for purposes of dose estimation. In this paper, we present a new global tritium model that reproduces environmental time-series data on concentrations in precipitation, ocean surface waters, and surface fresh waters in the northern hemisphere, concentrations of atmospheric tritium in the soutehrn hemisphere, and the latitude dependence of tritium in both hemispheres. Named TRICYCLE for Tritium CYCLE, the model is based on the global hydrologic cycle and includes hemisphereic stratospheric compartments, disaggregation of the troposphere and ocean surface waters into eight latitudezones, consideration of the different concentrations of atmospheric tritium over land and over the ocean, and a diffusive model for transport in the ocean. TRICYCLE reproduces the environmental data if we assume that about 50% of the tritium from atmospheric weapons testing was injected directly into the northern stratosphere as HTO. The models latitudinal disaggregation permits taking into account the distribution of population. For a unfiormaly distributed release of HTO into the worldwide troposphere, TRICYCLE predicts a collective dose commitment to the world population that exceeds the corresponding prediction by the NCRP model by about a factor of 3. 11 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab

  5. Global nuclear material flow/control model

    Dreicer, J.S.; Rutherford, D.S.; Fasel, P.K.; Riese, J.M.

    1997-01-01

    This is the final report of a two-year, Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The nuclear danger can be reduced by a system for global management, protection, control, and accounting as part of an international regime for nuclear materials. The development of an international fissile material management and control regime requires conceptual research supported by an analytical and modeling tool which treats the nuclear fuel cycle as a complete system. The prototype model developed visually represents the fundamental data, information, and capabilities related to the nuclear fuel cycle in a framework supportive of national or an international perspective. This includes an assessment of the global distribution of military and civilian fissile material inventories, a representation of the proliferation pertinent physical processes, facility specific geographic identification, and the capability to estimate resource requirements for the management and control of nuclear material. The model establishes the foundation for evaluating the global production, disposition, and safeguards and security requirements for fissile nuclear material and supports the development of other pertinent algorithmic capabilities necessary to undertake further global nuclear material related studies

  6. Nitration of soluble proteins in organotypic culture models of Parkinson's disease

    Larsen, Trine R; Söderling, Ann-Sofi; Caidahl, Kenneth

    2008-01-01

    Protein nitration due to oxidative and nitrative stress has been linked to the pathogenesis of Parkinson's disease (PD), but its relationship to the loss of dopamine (DA) or tyrosine hydroxylase (TH) activity is not clear. Here we quantified protein-bound 3-nitrotyrosine (3-NT) by a novel gas...... chromatography/negative chemical ionization tandem mass spectrometry technique and DA and 3,4-dihydroxyphenylalanine (DOPA) by HPLC in tissues or medium of organotypic, mouse mesencephalon cultures after acute or chronic treatments with the peroxynitrite donor 3-morpholino-sydnonimine (SIN-1), the dopaminergic...

  7. Global Optimization Ensemble Model for Classification Methods

    Anwar, Hina; Qamar, Usman; Muzaffar Qureshi, Abdul Wahab

    2014-01-01

    Supervised learning is the process of data mining for deducing rules from training datasets. A broad array of supervised learning algorithms exists, every one of them with its own advantages and drawbacks. There are some basic issues that affect the accuracy of classifier while solving a supervised learning problem, like bias-variance tradeoff, dimensionality of input space, and noise in the input data space. All these problems affect the accuracy of classifier and are the reason that there is no global optimal method for classification. There is not any generalized improvement method that can increase the accuracy of any classifier while addressing all the problems stated above. This paper proposes a global optimization ensemble model for classification methods (GMC) that can improve the overall accuracy for supervised learning problems. The experimental results on various public datasets showed that the proposed model improved the accuracy of the classification models from 1% to 30% depending upon the algorithm complexity. PMID:24883382

  8. Global Optimization Ensemble Model for Classification Methods

    Hina Anwar

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Supervised learning is the process of data mining for deducing rules from training datasets. A broad array of supervised learning algorithms exists, every one of them with its own advantages and drawbacks. There are some basic issues that affect the accuracy of classifier while solving a supervised learning problem, like bias-variance tradeoff, dimensionality of input space, and noise in the input data space. All these problems affect the accuracy of classifier and are the reason that there is no global optimal method for classification. There is not any generalized improvement method that can increase the accuracy of any classifier while addressing all the problems stated above. This paper proposes a global optimization ensemble model for classification methods (GMC that can improve the overall accuracy for supervised learning problems. The experimental results on various public datasets showed that the proposed model improved the accuracy of the classification models from 1% to 30% depending upon the algorithm complexity.

  9. Global Analysis, Interpretation and Modelling: An Earth Systems Modelling Program

    Moore, Berrien, III; Sahagian, Dork

    1997-01-01

    The Goal of the GAIM is: To advance the study of the coupled dynamics of the Earth system using as tools both data and models; to develop a strategy for the rapid development, evaluation, and application of comprehensive prognostic models of the Global Biogeochemical Subsystem which could eventually be linked with models of the Physical-Climate Subsystem; to propose, promote, and facilitate experiments with existing models or by linking subcomponent models, especially those associated with IGBP Core Projects and with WCRP efforts. Such experiments would be focused upon resolving interface issues and questions associated with developing an understanding of the prognostic behavior of key processes; to clarify key scientific issues facing the development of Global Biogeochemical Models and the coupling of these models to General Circulation Models; to assist the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) process by conducting timely studies that focus upon elucidating important unresolved scientific issues associated with the changing biogeochemical cycles of the planet and upon the role of the biosphere in the physical-climate subsystem, particularly its role in the global hydrological cycle; and to advise the SC-IGBP on progress in developing comprehensive Global Biogeochemical Models and to maintain scientific liaison with the WCRP Steering Group on Global Climate Modelling.

  10. Global modelling of Cryptosporidium in surface water

    Vermeulen, Lucie; Hofstra, Nynke

    2016-04-01

    Introduction Waterborne pathogens that cause diarrhoea, such as Cryptosporidium, pose a health risk all over the world. In many regions quantitative information on pathogens in surface water is unavailable. Our main objective is to model Cryptosporidium concentrations in surface waters worldwide. We present the GloWPa-Crypto model and use the model in a scenario analysis. A first exploration of global Cryptosporidium emissions to surface waters has been published by Hofstra et al. (2013). Further work has focused on modelling emissions of Cryptosporidium and Rotavirus to surface waters from human sources (Vermeulen et al 2015, Kiulia et al 2015). A global waterborne pathogen model can provide valuable insights by (1) providing quantitative information on pathogen levels in data-sparse regions, (2) identifying pathogen hotspots, (3) enabling future projections under global change scenarios and (4) supporting decision making. Material and Methods GloWPa-Crypto runs on a monthly time step and represents conditions for approximately the year 2010. The spatial resolution is a 0.5 x 0.5 degree latitude x longitude grid for the world. We use livestock maps (http://livestock.geo-wiki.org/) combined with literature estimates to calculate spatially explicit livestock Cryptosporidium emissions. For human Cryptosporidium emissions, we use UN population estimates, the WHO/UNICEF JMP sanitation country data and literature estimates of wastewater treatment. We combine our emissions model with a river routing model and data from the VIC hydrological model (http://vic.readthedocs.org/en/master/) to calculate concentrations in surface water. Cryptosporidium survival during transport depends on UV radiation and water temperature. We explore pathogen emissions and concentrations in 2050 with the new Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) 1 and 3. These scenarios describe plausible future trends in demographics, economic development and the degree of global integration. Results and

  11. Global energy modeling - A biophysical approach

    Dale, Michael

    2010-09-15

    This paper contrasts the standard economic approach to energy modelling with energy models using a biophysical approach. Neither of these approaches includes changing energy-returns-on-investment (EROI) due to declining resource quality or the capital intensive nature of renewable energy sources. Both of these factors will become increasingly important in the future. An extension to the biophysical approach is outlined which encompasses a dynamic EROI function that explicitly incorporates technological learning. The model is used to explore several scenarios of long-term future energy supply especially concerning the global transition to renewable energy sources in the quest for a sustainable energy system.

  12. Halomonas desiderata as a bacterial model to predict the possible biological nitrate reduction in concrete cells of nuclear waste disposals.

    Alquier, Marjorie; Kassim, Caroline; Bertron, Alexandra; Sablayrolles, Caroline; Rafrafi, Yan; Albrecht, Achim; Erable, Benjamin

    2014-01-01

    After closure of a waste disposal cell in a repository for radioactive waste, resaturation is likely to cause the release of soluble species contained in cement and bituminous matrices, such as ionic species (nitrates, sulfates, calcium and alkaline ions, etc.), organic matter (mainly organic acids), or gases (from steel containers and reinforced concrete structures as well as from radiolysis within the waste packages). However, in the presence of nitrates in the near-field of waste, the waste cell can initiate oxidative conditions leading to enhanced mobility of redox-sensitive radionuclides (RN). In biotic conditions and in the presence of organic matter and/or hydrogen as electron donors, nitrates may be microbiologically reduced, allowing a return to reducing conditions that promote the safety of storage. Our work aims to analyze the possible microbial reactivity of nitrates at the bitumen - concrete interface in conditions as close as possible to radioactive waste storage conditions in order (i) to evaluate the nitrate reaction kinetics; (ii) to identify the by-products (NO2(-), NH4(+), N2, N2O, etc.); and (iii) to discriminate between the roles of planktonic bacteria and those adhering as a biofilm structure in the denitrifying activity. Leaching experiments on solid matrices (bitumen and cement pastes) were first implemented to define the physicochemical conditions that microorganisms are likely to meet at the bitumen-concrete interface, e.g. highly alkaline pH conditions (10 < pH < 11) imposed by the cement matrix. The screening of a range of anaerobic denitrifying bacterial strains led us to select Halomonas desiderata as a model bacterium capable of catalyzing the reaction of nitrate reduction in these particular conditions of pH. The denitrifying activity of H. desiderata was quantified in a batch bioreactor in the presence of solid matrices and/or leachate from bitumen and cement matrices. Denitrification was relatively fast in the presence of cement

  13. On the importance of aerosol nitrate over Europe : data analysis and modelling

    Schaap, M.

    2003-01-01

    The central theme of this thesis is the nitrate content of aerosols (or particulate matter (PM)). Aerosols play an important role in the climate system by scattering and/or absorbing solar radiation. In the last decades research has been devoted to quantify the radiative forcing of aerosols

  14. Statistical models of global Langmuir mixing

    Li, Qing; Fox-Kemper, Baylor; Breivik, Øyvind; Webb, Adrean

    2017-05-01

    The effects of Langmuir mixing on the surface ocean mixing may be parameterized by applying an enhancement factor which depends on wave, wind, and ocean state to the turbulent velocity scale in the K-Profile Parameterization. Diagnosing the appropriate enhancement factor online in global climate simulations is readily achieved by coupling with a prognostic wave model, but with significant computational and code development expenses. In this paper, two alternatives that do not require a prognostic wave model, (i) a monthly mean enhancement factor climatology, and (ii) an approximation to the enhancement factor based on the empirical wave spectra, are explored and tested in a global climate model. Both appear to reproduce the Langmuir mixing effects as estimated using a prognostic wave model, with nearly identical and substantial improvements in the simulated mixed layer depth and intermediate water ventilation over control simulations, but significantly less computational cost. Simpler approaches, such as ignoring Langmuir mixing altogether or setting a globally constant Langmuir number, are found to be deficient. Thus, the consequences of Stokes depth and misaligned wind and waves are important.

  15. Modeling of the Global Water Cycle - Analytical Models

    Yongqiang Liu; Roni Avissar

    2005-01-01

    Both numerical and analytical models of coupled atmosphere and its underlying ground components (land, ocean, ice) are useful tools for modeling the global and regional water cycle. Unlike complex three-dimensional climate models, which need very large computing resources and involve a large number of complicated interactions often difficult to interpret, analytical...

  16. Global Environmental Change: An integrated modelling approach

    Den Elzen, M.

    1993-01-01

    Two major global environmental problems are dealt with: climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion (and their mutual interactions), briefly surveyed in part 1. In Part 2 a brief description of the integrated modelling framework IMAGE 1.6 is given. Some specific parts of the model are described in more detail in other Chapters, e.g. the carbon cycle model, the atmospheric chemistry model, the halocarbon model, and the UV-B impact model. In Part 3 an uncertainty analysis of climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion is presented (Chapter 4). Chapter 5 briefly reviews the social and economic uncertainties implied by future greenhouse gas emissions. Chapters 6 and 7 describe a model and sensitivity analysis pertaining to the scientific uncertainties and/or lacunae in the sources and sinks of methane and carbon dioxide, and their biogeochemical feedback processes. Chapter 8 presents an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the carbon cycle model, the halocarbon model, and the IMAGE model 1.6 as a whole. Part 4 presents the risk assessment methodology as applied to the problems of climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion more specifically. In Chapter 10, this methodology is used as a means with which to asses current ozone policy and a wide range of halocarbon policies. Chapter 11 presents and evaluates the simulated globally-averaged temperature and sea level rise (indicators) for the IPCC-1990 and 1992 scenarios, concluding with a Low Risk scenario, which would meet the climate targets. Chapter 12 discusses the impact of sea level rise on the frequency of the Dutch coastal defence system (indicator) for the IPCC-1990 scenarios. Chapter 13 presents projections of mortality rates due to stratospheric ozone depletion based on model simulations employing the UV-B chain model for a number of halocarbon policies. Chapter 14 presents an approach for allocating future emissions of CO 2 among regions. (Abstract Truncated)

  17. Respiration of Nitrate and Nitrite.

    Cole, Jeffrey A; Richardson, David J

    2008-09-01

    Nitrate reduction to ammonia via nitrite occurs widely as an anabolic process through which bacteria, archaea, and plants can assimilate nitrate into cellular biomass. Escherichia coli and related enteric bacteria can couple the eight-electron reduction of nitrate to ammonium to growth by coupling the nitrate and nitrite reductases involved to energy-conserving respiratory electron transport systems. In global terms, the respiratory reduction of nitrate to ammonium dominates nitrate and nitrite reduction in many electron-rich environments such as anoxic marine sediments and sulfide-rich thermal vents, the human gastrointestinal tract, and the bodies of warm-blooded animals. This review reviews the regulation and enzymology of this process in E. coli and, where relevant detail is available, also in Salmonella and draws comparisons with and implications for the process in other bacteria where it is pertinent to do so. Fatty acids may be present in high levels in many of the natural environments of E. coli and Salmonella in which oxygen is limited but nitrate is available to support respiration. In E. coli, nitrate reduction in the periplasm involves the products of two seven-gene operons, napFDAGHBC, encoding the periplasmic nitrate reductase, and nrfABCDEFG, encoding the periplasmic nitrite reductase. No bacterium has yet been shown to couple a periplasmic nitrate reductase solely to the cytoplasmic nitrite reductase NirB. The cytoplasmic pathway for nitrate reduction to ammonia is restricted almost exclusively to a few groups of facultative anaerobic bacteria that encounter high concentrations of environmental nitrate.

  18. Nitrate glass

    Kirilenko, I.A.; Vinogradov, E.E.

    1977-01-01

    Experimental evidence on behaviour of nitrate glasses is reviewed in terms of relationships between the presence of water in vitrescent nitrate systems and the properties of the systems. The glasses considered belong to systems of Mg(NO 3 ) 2 - Nd(NO 3 ) 3 ; Hg(NO 3 ) 2 -Nd(NO 3 ) 3 ; NaNO 3 -Mg(NO 3 ) 2 -Nd(NO 3 ) 3 ; M-Zn(NO 3 ) 3 , where M is a mixture of 20% mass NaNO 3 and 80% mass Mg(NO 3 ) 2 , and Zn is a rare earth ion. Nitrate glass is shown to be a product of dehydration. Vitrification may be regarded as a resusl of formation of molecular complexes in the chain due to hydrogen bonds of two types, i.e. water-water, or water-nicrate group. Chain formation, along with low melting points of the nitrates, hinder crystallization of nitrate melts. Provided there is enough water, this results in vitrification

  19. Nitrate storage and dissimilatory nitrate reduction by eukaryotic microbes

    Kamp, Anja; Høgslund, Signe; Risgaard-Petersen, Nils

    2015-01-01

    The microbial nitrogen cycle is one of the most complex and environmentally important element cycles on Earth and has long been thought to be mediated exclusively by prokaryotic microbes. Rather recently, it was discovered that certain eukaryotic microbes are able to store nitrate intracellularly......, suggesting that eukaryotes may rival prokaryotes in terms of dissimilatory nitrate reduction. Finally, this review article sketches some evolutionary perspectives of eukaryotic nitrate metabolism and identifies open questions that need to be addressed in future investigations....... and use it for dissimilatory nitrate reduction in the absence of oxygen. The paradigm shift that this entailed is ecologically significant because the eukaryotes in question comprise global players like diatoms, foraminifers, and fungi. This review article provides an unprecedented overview of nitrate...

  20. Modeling nitrate from land surface to wells' perforations under agricultural land: success, failure, and future scenarios in a Mediterranean case study

    Y. Levy

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Contamination of groundwater resources by nitrate leaching under agricultural land is probably the most troublesome agriculture-related water contamination worldwide. Contaminated areas often show large spatial variability of nitrate concentration in wells. In this study, we tried to assess whether this spatial variability can be characterized on the basis of land use and standard agricultural practices. Deep soil sampling (10 m was used to calibrate vertical flow and nitrogen-transport numerical models of the unsaturated zone under different agricultural land uses. Vegetable fields (potato and strawberry and deciduous orchards (persimmon in the Sharon area overlying the coastal aquifer of Israel were examined. Average nitrate–nitrogen fluxes below vegetable fields were 210–290 kg ha−1 yr−1 and under deciduous orchards were 110–140 kg ha−1 yr−1. The output water and nitrate–nitrogen fluxes of the unsaturated-zone models were used as input data for a three-dimensional flow and nitrate-transport model in the aquifer under an area of 13.3 km2 of agricultural land. The area was subdivided into four agricultural land uses: vegetables, deciduous orchards, citrus orchards, and non-cultivated. Fluxes of water and nitrate–nitrogen below citrus orchards were taken from a previous study in the area. The groundwater flow model was calibrated to well heads by changing the hydraulic conductivity. The nitrate-transport model, which was fed by the above-mentioned models of the unsaturated zone, succeeded in reconstructing the average nitrate concentration in the wells. However, this transport model failed in calculating the high concentrations in the most contaminated wells and the large spatial variability of nitrate concentrations in the aquifer. To reconstruct the spatial variability and enable predictions, nitrate fluxes from the unsaturated zone were multiplied by local multipliers. This action was rationalized by the fact

  1. Development of an Integrated Global Energy Model

    Krakowski, R.A.

    1999-01-01

    The primary objective of this research was to develop a forefront analysis tool for application to enhance understanding of long-term, global, nuclear-energy and nuclear-material futures. To this end, an existing economics-energy-environmental (E 3 ) model was adopted, modified, and elaborated to examine this problem in a multi-regional (13), long-term (approximately2,100) context. The E 3 model so developed was applied to create a Los Alamos presence in this E 3 area through ''niche analyses'' that provide input to the formulation of policies dealing with and shaping of nuclear-energy and nuclear-materials futures. Results from analyses using the E 3 model have been presented at a variety of national and international conferences and workshops. Through use of the E 3 model Los Alamos was afforded the opportunity to participate in a multi-national E 3 study team that is examining a range of global, long-term nuclear issues under the auspices of the IAEA during the 1998-99 period . Finally, the E 3 model developed under this LDRD project is being used as an important component in more recent Nuclear Material Management Systems (NMMS) project

  2. Drought Persistence Errors in Global Climate Models

    Moon, H.; Gudmundsson, L.; Seneviratne, S. I.

    2018-04-01

    The persistence of drought events largely determines the severity of socioeconomic and ecological impacts, but the capability of current global climate models (GCMs) to simulate such events is subject to large uncertainties. In this study, the representation of drought persistence in GCMs is assessed by comparing state-of-the-art GCM model simulations to observation-based data sets. For doing so, we consider dry-to-dry transition probabilities at monthly and annual scales as estimates for drought persistence, where a dry status is defined as negative precipitation anomaly. Though there is a substantial spread in the drought persistence bias, most of the simulations show systematic underestimation of drought persistence at global scale. Subsequently, we analyzed to which degree (i) inaccurate observations, (ii) differences among models, (iii) internal climate variability, and (iv) uncertainty of the employed statistical methods contribute to the spread in drought persistence errors using an analysis of variance approach. The results show that at monthly scale, model uncertainty and observational uncertainty dominate, while the contribution from internal variability is small in most cases. At annual scale, the spread of the drought persistence error is dominated by the statistical estimation error of drought persistence, indicating that the partitioning of the error is impaired by the limited number of considered time steps. These findings reveal systematic errors in the representation of drought persistence in current GCMs and suggest directions for further model improvement.

  3. Using StorAge Selection Functions to Improve Simulation of Groundwater Nitrate Lag Times in the SWAT Modeling Framework.

    Wilusz, D. C.; Fuka, D.; Cho, C.; Ball, W. P.; Easton, Z. M.; Harman, C. J.

    2017-12-01

    Intensive agriculture and atmospheric deposition have dramatically increased the input of reactive nitrogen into many watersheds worldwide. Reactive nitrogen can leach as nitrate into groundwater, which is stored and eventually released over years to decades into surface waters, potentially degrading water quality. To simulate the fate and transport of groundwater nitrate, many researchers and practitioners use the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) or an enhanced version of SWAT that accounts for topographically-driven variable source areas (TopoSWAT). Both SWAT and TopoSWAT effectively assume that nitrate in the groundwater reservoir is well-mixed, which is known to be a poor assumption at many sites. In this study, we describe modifications to TopoSWAT that (1) relax the assumption of groundwater well-mixedness, (2) more flexibly parameterize groundwater transport as a time-varying distribution of travel times using the recently developed theory of rank StorAge Selection (rSAS) functions, and (3) allow for groundwater age to be represented by position on the hillslope or hydrological distance from the stream. The approach conceptualizes the groundwater aquifer as a population of water parcels entering as recharge with a particular nitrate concentration, aging as they move through storage, and eventually exiting as baseflow. The rSAS function selects the distribution of parcel ages that exit as baseflow based on a parameterized probability distribution; this distribution can be adjusted to preferentially select different distributions of young and old parcels in storage so as to reproduce (in principle) any form of transport. The modified TopoSWAT model (TopoSWAT+rSAS) is tested at a small agricultural catchment in the Eastern Shore, MD with an extensive hydrologic and hydrochemical data record for calibration and evaluation. The results examine (1) the sensitivity of TopoSWAT+rSAS modeling of nitrate transport to assumptions about the distribution of travel

  4. Progress in Global Multicompartmental Modelling of DDT

    Stemmler, I.; Lammel, G.

    2009-04-01

    Dichlorophenyltrichloroethane, DDT, and its major metabolite dichlorophenyldichloroethylene, DDE, are long-lived in the environment (persistent) and circulate since the 1950s. They accumulate along food chains, cause detrimental effects in marine and terrestrial wild life, and pose a hazard for human health. DDT was widely used as an insecticide in the past and is still in use in a number of tropical countries to combat vector borne diseases like malaria and typhus. It is a multicompartmental substance with only a small mass fraction residing in air. A global multicompartment chemistry transport model (MPI-MCTM; Semeena et al., 2006) is used to study the environmental distribution and fate of dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT). For the first time a horizontally and vertically resolved global model was used to perform a long-term simulation of DDT and DDE. The model is based on general circulation models for the ocean (MPIOM; Marsland et al., 2003) and atmosphere (ECHAM5). In addition, an oceanic biogeochemistry model (HAMOCC5.1; Maier-Reimer et al., 2005 ) and a microphysical aerosol model (HAM; Stier et al., 2005 ) are included. Multicompartmental substances are cycling in atmosphere (3 phases), ocean (3 phases), top soil (3 phases), and vegetation surfaces. The model was run for 40 years forced with historical agricultural application data of 1950-1990. The model results show that the global environmental contamination started to decrease in air, soil and vegetation after the applications peaked in 1965-70. In some regions, however, the DDT mass had not yet reached a maximum in 1990 and was still accumulating mass until the end of the simulation. Modelled DDT and DDE concentrations in atmosphere, ocean and soil are evaluated by comparison with observational data. The evaluation of the model results indicate that degradation of DDE in air was underestimated. Also for DDT, the discrepancies between model results and observations are related to uncertainties of

  5. A satellite-based global landslide model

    A. Farahmand

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Landslides are devastating phenomena that cause huge damage around the world. This paper presents a quasi-global landslide model derived using satellite precipitation data, land-use land cover maps, and 250 m topography information. This suggested landslide model is based on the Support Vector Machines (SVM, a machine learning algorithm. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC landslide inventory data is used as observations and reference data. In all, 70% of the data are used for model development and training, whereas 30% are used for validation and verification. The results of 100 random subsamples of available landslide observations revealed that the suggested landslide model can predict historical landslides reliably. The average error of 100 iterations of landslide prediction is estimated to be approximately 7%, while approximately 2% false landslide events are observed.

  6. Analysis of nitrate in near-surface aquifers in the midcontinental United States: An application of the inverse hyperbolic sine Tobit model

    Yen, Steven T.; Liu, Shiping; Kolpin, Dana W.

    1996-01-01

    A nonnormal and heteroscedastic Tobit model is used to determine the primary factors that affect nitrate concentrations in near-surface aquifers, using data from the U.S. Geological Survey collected in 1991. Both normality and homoscedasticity of errors are rejected, justifying the use of a nonnormal and heteroscedastic model. The following factors are found to have significant impacts on nitrate concentrations in groundwater: well screen interval, depth to top of aquifers, percentages of urban residential, forest land, and pasture within 3.2 km, dissolved oxygen concentration level, and presence of a chemical facility and feedlot. The effects of explanatory variables on nitrate concentration are explored further by calculating elasticities. Dissolved oxygen concentration level has more notable effects on nitrate concentrations in groundwater than other variables.

  7. A hydroclimatic model of global fire patterns

    Boer, Matthias

    2015-04-01

    Satellite-based earth observation is providing an increasingly accurate picture of global fire patterns. The highest fire activity is observed in seasonally dry (sub-)tropical environments of South America, Africa and Australia, but fires occur with varying frequency, intensity and seasonality in almost all biomes on Earth. The particular combination of these fire characteristics, or fire regime, is known to emerge from the combined influences of climate, vegetation, terrain and land use, but has so far proven difficult to reproduce by global models. Uncertainty about the biophysical drivers and constraints that underlie current global fire patterns is propagated in model predictions of how ecosystems, fire regimes and biogeochemical cycles may respond to projected future climates. Here, I present a hydroclimatic model of global fire patterns that predicts the mean annual burned area fraction (F) of 0.25° x 0.25° grid cells as a function of the climatic water balance. Following Bradstock's four-switch model, long-term fire activity levels were assumed to be controlled by fuel productivity rates and the likelihood that the extant fuel is dry enough to burn. The frequency of ignitions and favourable fire weather were assumed to be non-limiting at long time scales. Fundamentally, fuel productivity and fuel dryness are a function of the local water and energy budgets available for the production and desiccation of plant biomass. The climatic water balance summarizes the simultaneous availability of biologically usable energy and water at a site, and may therefore be expected to explain a significant proportion of global variation in F. To capture the effect of the climatic water balance on fire activity I focused on the upper quantiles of F, i.e. the maximum level of fire activity for a given climatic water balance. Analysing GFED4 data for annual burned area together with gridded climate data, I found that nearly 80% of the global variation in the 0.99 quantile of F

  8. On coupling global biome models with climate models

    Claussen, M.

    1994-01-01

    The BIOME model of Prentice et al. (1992), which predicts global vegetation patterns in equilibrium with climate, is coupled with the ECHAM climate model of the Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg. It is found that incorporation of the BIOME model into ECHAM, regardless at which frequency, does not enhance the simulated climate variability, expressed in terms of differences between global vegetation patterns. Strongest changes are seen only between the initial biome distribution and the biome distribution computed after the first simulation period, provided that the climate-biome model is started from a biome distribution that resembles the present-day distribution. After the first simulation period, there is no significant shrinking, expanding, or shifting of biomes. Likewise, no trend is seen in global averages of land-surface parameters and climate variables. (orig.)

  9. Tree-Based Global Model Tests for Polytomous Rasch Models

    Komboz, Basil; Strobl, Carolin; Zeileis, Achim

    2018-01-01

    Psychometric measurement models are only valid if measurement invariance holds between test takers of different groups. Global model tests, such as the well-established likelihood ratio (LR) test, are sensitive to violations of measurement invariance, such as differential item functioning and differential step functioning. However, these…

  10. Global and local level density models

    Koning, A.J.; Hilaire, S.; Goriely, S.

    2008-01-01

    Four different level density models, three phenomenological and one microscopic, are consistently parameterized using the same set of experimental observables. For each of the phenomenological models, the Constant Temperature Model, the Back-shifted Fermi gas Model and the Generalized Superfluid Model, a version without and with explicit collective enhancement is considered. Moreover, a recently published microscopic combinatorial model is compared with the phenomenological approaches and with the same set of experimental data. For each nuclide for which sufficient experimental data exists, a local level density parameterization is constructed for each model. Next, these local models have helped to construct global level density prescriptions, to be used for cases for which no experimental data exists. Altogether, this yields a collection of level density formulae and parameters that can be used with confidence in nuclear model calculations. To demonstrate this, a large-scale validation with experimental discrete level schemes and experimental cross sections and neutron emission spectra for various different reaction channels has been performed

  11. A Global Model of Meteoric Sodium

    Marsh, Daniel R.; Janches, Diego; Feng, Wuhu; Plane, John M. C.

    2013-01-01

    A global model of sodium in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere has been developed within the framework of the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). The standard fully interactive WACCM chemistry module has been augmented with a chemistry scheme that includes nine neutral and ionized sodium species. Meteoric ablation provides the source of sodium in the model and is represented as a combination of a meteoroid input function (MIF) and a parameterized ablation model. The MIF provides the seasonally and latitudinally varying meteoric flux which is modeled taking into consideration the astronomical origins of sporadic meteors and considers variations in particle entry angle, velocity, mass, and the differential ablation of the chemical constituents. WACCM simulations show large variations in the sodium constituents over time scales from days to months. Seasonality of sodium constituents is strongly affected by variations in the MIF and transport via the mean meridional wind. In particular, the summer to winter hemisphere flow leads to the highest sodium species concentrations and loss rates occurring over the winter pole. In the Northern Hemisphere, this winter maximum can be dramatically affected by stratospheric sudden warmings. Simulations of the January 2009 major warming event show that it caused a short-term decrease in the sodium column over the polar cap that was followed by a factor of 3 increase in the following weeks. Overall, the modeled distribution of atomic sodium in WACCM agrees well with both ground-based and satellite observations. Given the strong sensitivity of the sodium layer to dynamical motions, reproducing its variability provides a stringent test of global models and should help to constrain key atmospheric variables in this poorly sampled region of the atmosphere.

  12. Global adjoint tomography: first-generation model

    Bozdağ, Ebru

    2016-09-23

    We present the first-generation global tomographic model constructed based on adjoint tomography, an iterative full-waveform inversion technique. Synthetic seismograms were calculated using GPU-accelerated spectral-element simulations of global seismic wave propagation, accommodating effects due to 3-D anelastic crust & mantle structure, topography & bathymetry, the ocean load, ellipticity, rotation, and self-gravitation. Fréchet derivatives were calculated in 3-D anelastic models based on an adjoint-state method. The simulations were performed on the Cray XK7 named \\'Titan\\', a computer with 18 688 GPU accelerators housed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The transversely isotropic global model is the result of 15 tomographic iterations, which systematically reduced differences between observed and simulated three-component seismograms. Our starting model combined 3-D mantle model S362ANI with 3-D crustal model Crust2.0. We simultaneously inverted for structure in the crust and mantle, thereby eliminating the need for widely used \\'crustal corrections\\'. We used data from 253 earthquakes in the magnitude range 5.8 ≤ M ≤ 7.0. We started inversions by combining ~30 s body-wave data with ~60 s surface-wave data. The shortest period of the surface waves was gradually decreased, and in the last three iterations we combined ~17 s body waves with ~45 s surface waves. We started using 180 min long seismograms after the 12th iteration and assimilated minor- and major-arc body and surface waves. The 15th iteration model features enhancements of well-known slabs, an enhanced image of the Samoa/Tahiti plume, as well as various other plumes and hotspots, such as Caroline, Galapagos, Yellowstone and Erebus. Furthermore, we see clear improvements in slab resolution along the Hellenic and Japan Arcs, as well as subduction along the East of Scotia Plate, which does not exist in the starting model. Point-spread function tests demonstrate that we are approaching the

  13. Climatic and physiographic controls on catchment-scale nitrate loss at different spatial scales: insights from a top-down model development approach

    Shafii, Mahyar; Basu, Nandita; Schiff, Sherry; Van Cappellen, Philippe

    2017-04-01

    Dramatic increase in nitrogen circulating in the biosphere due to anthropogenic activities has resulted in impairment of water quality in groundwater and surface water causing eutrophication in coastal regions. Understanding the fate and transport of nitrogen from landscape to coastal areas requires exploring the drivers of nitrogen processes in both time and space, as well as the identification of appropriate flow pathways. Conceptual models can be used as diagnostic tools to provide insights into such controls. However, diagnostic evaluation of coupled hydrological-biogeochemical models is challenging. This research proposes a top-down methodology utilizing hydrochemical signatures to develop conceptual models for simulating the integrated streamflow and nitrate responses while taking into account dominant controls on nitrate variability (e.g., climate, soil water content, etc.). Our main objective is to seek appropriate model complexity that sufficiently reproduces multiple hydrological and nitrate signatures. Having developed a suitable conceptual model for a given watershed, we employ it in sensitivity studies to demonstrate the dominant process controls that contribute to the nitrate response at scales of interest. We apply the proposed approach to nitrate simulation in a range of small to large sub-watersheds in the Grand River Watershed (GRW) located in Ontario. Such multi-basin modeling experiment will enable us to address process scaling and investigate the consequences of lumping processes in terms of models' predictive capability. The proposed methodology can be applied to the development of large-scale models that can help decision-making associated with nutrients management at regional scale.

  14. Challenges in Modeling of the Global Atmosphere

    Janjic, Zavisa; Djurdjevic, Vladimir; Vasic, Ratko; Black, Tom

    2015-04-01

    ") with significant amplitudes can develop. Due to their large scales, that are comparable to the scales of the dominant Rossby waves, such fictitious solutions are hard to identify and remove. Another new challenge on the global scale is that the limit of validity of the hydrostatic approximation is rapidly being approached. Having in mind the sensitivity of extended deterministic forecasts to small disturbances, we may need global non-hydrostatic models sooner than we think. The unified Non-hydrostatic Multi-scale Model (NMMB) that is being developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) as a part of the new NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) will be discussed as an example. The non-hydrostatic dynamics were designed in such a way as to avoid over-specification. The global version is run on the latitude-longitude grid, and the polar filter selectively slows down the waves that would otherwise be unstable. The model formulation has been successfully tested on various scales. A global forecasting system based on the NMMB has been run in order to test and tune the model. The skill of the medium range forecasts produced by the NMMB is comparable to that of other major medium range models. The computational efficiency of the global NMMB on parallel computers is good.

  15. The use of process models to inform and improve statistical models of nitrate occurrence, Great Miami River Basin, southwestern Ohio

    Walter, Donald A.; Starn, J. Jeffrey

    2013-01-01

    Statistical models of nitrate occurrence in the glacial aquifer system of the northern United States, developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, use observed relations between nitrate concentrations and sets of explanatory variables—representing well-construction, environmental, and source characteristics— to predict the probability that nitrate, as nitrogen, will exceed a threshold concentration. However, the models do not explicitly account for the processes that control the transport of nitrogen from surface sources to a pumped well and use area-weighted mean spatial variables computed from within a circular buffer around the well as a simplified source-area conceptualization. The use of models that explicitly represent physical-transport processes can inform and, potentially, improve these statistical models. Specifically, groundwater-flow models simulate advective transport—predominant in many surficial aquifers— and can contribute to the refinement of the statistical models by (1) providing for improved, physically based representations of a source area to a well, and (2) allowing for more detailed estimates of environmental variables. A source area to a well, known as a contributing recharge area, represents the area at the water table that contributes recharge to a pumped well; a well pumped at a volumetric rate equal to the amount of recharge through a circular buffer will result in a contributing recharge area that is the same size as the buffer but has a shape that is a function of the hydrologic setting. These volume-equivalent contributing recharge areas will approximate circular buffers in areas of relatively flat hydraulic gradients, such as near groundwater divides, but in areas with steep hydraulic gradients will be elongated in the upgradient direction and agree less with the corresponding circular buffers. The degree to which process-model-estimated contributing recharge areas, which simulate advective transport and therefore account for

  16. Directional and Spectral Irradiance in Ocean Models: Effects on Simulated Global Phytoplankton, Nutrients, and Primary Production

    Gregg, Watson W.; Rousseaux, Cecile S.

    2016-01-01

    The importance of including directional and spectral light in simulations of ocean radiative transfer was investigated using a coupled biogeochemical-circulation-radiative model of the global oceans. The effort focused on phytoplankton abundances, nutrient concentrations and vertically-integrated net primary production. The importance was approached by sequentially removing directional (i.e., direct vs. diffuse) and spectral irradiance and comparing results of the above variables to a fully directionally and spectrally-resolved model. In each case the total irradiance was kept constant; it was only the pathways and spectral nature that were changed. Assuming all irradiance was diffuse had negligible effect on global ocean primary production. Global nitrate and total chlorophyll concentrations declined by about 20% each. The largest changes occurred in the tropics and sub-tropics rather than the high latitudes, where most of the irradiance is already diffuse. Disregarding spectral irradiance had effects that depended upon the choice of attenuation wavelength. The wavelength closest to the spectrally-resolved model, 500 nm, produced lower nitrate (19%) and chlorophyll (8%) and higher primary production (2%) than the spectral model. Phytoplankton relative abundances were very sensitive to the choice of non-spectral wavelength transmittance. The combined effects of neglecting both directional and spectral irradiance exacerbated the differences, despite using attenuation at 500 nm. Global nitrate decreased 33% and chlorophyll decreased 24%. Changes in phytoplankton community structure were considerable, representing a change from chlorophytes to cyanobacteria and coccolithophores. This suggested a shift in community function, from light-limitation to nutrient limitation: lower demands for nutrients from cyanobacteria and coccolithophores favored them over the more nutrient-demanding chlorophytes. Although diatoms have the highest nutrient demands in the model, their

  17. Median nitrate concentrations in groundwater in the New Jersey Highlands Region estimated using regression models and land-surface characteristics

    Baker, Ronald J.; Chepiga, Mary M.; Cauller, Stephen J.

    2015-01-01

    Nitrate-concentration data are used in conjunction with land-use and land-cover data to estimate median nitrate concentrations in groundwater underlying the New Jersey (NJ) Highlands Region. Sources of data on nitrate in 19,670 groundwater samples are from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water Information System (NWIS) and the NJ Private Well Testing Act (PWTA).

  18. A theoretical model for explaining the effect of physical manipulation on nitrate uptake in spinach (Spinacia oleracea L)

    terSteege, MW; Stulen, [No Value

    1997-01-01

    Experiments with spinach (Spinacia oleracea L., cv. Subito) plants in which net nitrate uptake rate (NNUR) and nitrate influx and efflux were measured showed that handling the plants affected the results considerably. Both nitrate influx and efflux changed after physical manipulation of the plants,

  19. Global plastic models for computerized structural analysis

    Roche, R.L.; Hoffmann, A.

    1977-01-01

    In many types of structures, it is possible to use generalized stresses (like membrane forces, bending moment, torsion moment...) to define a yield surface for a part of the structure. Analysis can be achieved by using the HILL's principle and a hardening rule. The whole formulation is said 'Global Plastic Model'. Two different global models are used in the CEASEMT system for structural analysis, one for shell analysis and the other for piping analysis (in plastic or creep field). In shell analysis the generalized stresses chosen are the membrane forces and bending (including torsion) moments. There is only one yield condition for a normal to the middle surface and no integration along the thickness is required. In piping analysis, the choice of generalized stresses is bending moments, torsional moment, hoop stress and tension stress. There is only a set of stresses for a cross section and no integration over the cross section area is needed. Connected strains are axis curvature, torsion, uniform strains. The definition of the yield surface is the most important item. A practical way is to use a diagonal quadratic function of the stress components. But the coefficients are depending of the shape of the pipe element, especially for curved segments. Indications will be given on the yield functions used. Some examples of applications in structural analysis are added to the text

  20. Modeling global scene factors in attention

    Torralba, Antonio

    2003-07-01

    Models of visual attention have focused predominantly on bottom-up approaches that ignored structured contextual and scene information. I propose a model of contextual cueing for attention guidance based on the global scene configuration. It is shown that the statistics of low-level features across the whole image can be used to prime the presence or absence of objects in the scene and to predict their location, scale, and appearance before exploring the image. In this scheme, visual context information can become available early in the visual processing chain, which allows modulation of the saliency of image regions and provides an efficient shortcut for object detection and recognition. 2003 Optical Society of America

  1. Global embedding of fibre inflation models

    Cicoli, Michele [Dipartimento di Fisica e Astronomia, Università di Bologna,via Irnerio 46, 40126 Bologna (Italy); INFN - Sezione di Bologna,viale Berti Pichat 6/2, 40127 Bologna (Italy); Abdus Salam ICTP,Strada Costiera 11, Trieste 34151 (Italy); Muia, Francesco [Rudolf Peierls Centre for Theoretical Physics, University of Oxford,1 Keble Rd., Oxford OX1 3NP (United Kingdom); Shukla, Pramod [Abdus Salam ICTP,Strada Costiera 11, Trieste 34151 (Italy)

    2016-11-30

    We present concrete embeddings of fibre inflation models in globally consistent type IIB Calabi-Yau orientifolds with closed string moduli stabilisation. After performing a systematic search through the existing list of toric Calabi-Yau manifolds, we find several examples that reproduce the minimal setup to embed fibre inflation models. This involves Calabi-Yau manifolds with h{sup 1,1}=3 which are K3 fibrations over a ℙ{sup 1} base with an additional shrinkable rigid divisor. We then provide different consistent choices of the underlying brane set-up which generate a non-perturbative superpotential suitable for moduli stabilisation and string loop corrections with the correct form to drive inflation. For each Calabi-Yau orientifold setting, we also compute the effect of higher derivative contributions and study their influence on the inflationary dynamics.

  2. In-cloud oxalate formation in the global troposphere: a 3-D modeling study

    S. Myriokefalitakis

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Organic acids attract increasing attention as contributors to atmospheric acidity, secondary organic aerosol mass and aerosol hygroscopicity. Oxalic acid is globally the most abundant dicarboxylic acid, formed via chemical oxidation of gas-phase precursors in the aqueous phase of aerosols and droplets. Its lifecycle and atmospheric global distribution remain highly uncertain and are the focus of this study. The first global spatial and temporal distribution of oxalate, simulated using a state-of-the-art aqueous-phase chemical scheme embedded within the global 3-dimensional chemistry/transport model TM4-ECPL, is here presented. The model accounts for comprehensive gas-phase chemistry and its coupling with major aerosol constituents (including secondary organic aerosol. Model results are consistent with ambient observations of oxalate at rural and remote locations (slope = 1.16 ± 0.14, r2 = 0.36, N = 114 and suggest that aqueous-phase chemistry contributes significantly to the global atmospheric burden of secondary organic aerosol. In TM4-ECPL most oxalate is formed in-cloud and less than 5 % is produced in aerosol water. About 62 % of the oxalate is removed via wet deposition, 30 % by in-cloud reaction with hydroxyl radical, 4 % by in-cloud reaction with nitrate radical and 4 % by dry deposition. The in-cloud global oxalate net chemical production is calculated to be about 21–37 Tg yr−1 with almost 79 % originating from biogenic hydrocarbons, mainly isoprene. This condensed phase net source of oxalate in conjunction with a global mean turnover time against deposition of about 5 days, maintain oxalate's global tropospheric burden of 0.2–0.3 Tg, i.e. 0.05–0.1 Tg-C that is about 5–9 % of model-calculated water soluble organic carbon burden.

  3. Integrated modelling of nitrate loads to coastal waters and land rent applied to catchment scale water management

    Jacosen, T.; Refsgaard, A.; Jacobsen, Brian H.

    Abstract The EU WFD requires an integrated approach to river basin management in order to meet environmental and ecological objectives. This paper presents concepts and full-scale application of an integrated modelling framework. The Ringkoebing Fjord basin is characterized by intensive agricultu...... in comprehensive, integrated modelling tools.......Abstract The EU WFD requires an integrated approach to river basin management in order to meet environmental and ecological objectives. This paper presents concepts and full-scale application of an integrated modelling framework. The Ringkoebing Fjord basin is characterized by intensive...... agricultural production and leakage of nitrate constitute a major pollution problem with respect groundwater aquifers (drinking water), fresh surface water systems (water quality of lakes) and coastal receiving waters (eutrophication). The case study presented illustrates an advanced modelling approach applied...

  4. Integrated modelling of nitrate loads to coastal waters and land rent applied to catchment-scale water management

    Refsgaard, A.; Jacobsen, T.; Jacobsen, Brian H.

    2007-01-01

    The EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) requires an integrated approach to river basin management in order to meet environmental and ecological objectives. This paper presents concepts and full-scale application of an integrated modelling framework. The Ringkoebing Fjord basin is characterized by ...... the potential and limitations of comprehensive, integrated modelling tools.  ......The EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) requires an integrated approach to river basin management in order to meet environmental and ecological objectives. This paper presents concepts and full-scale application of an integrated modelling framework. The Ringkoebing Fjord basin is characterized...... by intensive agricultural production and leakage of nitrate constitute a major pollution problem with respect groundwater aquifers (drinking water), fresh surface water systems (water quality of lakes) and coastal receiving waters (eutrophication). The case study presented illustrates an advanced modelling...

  5. A Global Atmospheric Model of Meteoric Iron

    Feng, Wuhu; Marsh, Daniel R.; Chipperfield, Martyn P.; Janches, Diego; Hoffner, Josef; Yi, Fan; Plane, John M. C.

    2013-01-01

    The first global model of meteoric iron in the atmosphere (WACCM-Fe) has been developed by combining three components: the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), a description of the neutral and ion-molecule chemistry of iron in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT), and a treatment of the injection of meteoric constituents into the atmosphere. The iron chemistry treats seven neutral and four ionized iron containing species with 30 neutral and ion-molecule reactions. The meteoric input function (MIF), which describes the injection of Fe as a function of height, latitude, and day, is precalculated from an astronomical model coupled to a chemical meteoric ablation model (CABMOD). This newly developed WACCM-Fe model has been evaluated against a number of available ground-based lidar observations and performs well in simulating the mesospheric atomic Fe layer. The model reproduces the strong positive correlation of temperature and Fe density around the Fe layer peak and the large anticorrelation around 100 km. The diurnal tide has a significant effect in the middle of the layer, and the model also captures well the observed seasonal variations. However, the model overestimates the peak Fe+ concentration compared with the limited rocket-borne mass spectrometer data available, although good agreement on the ion layer underside can be obtained by adjusting the rate coefficients for dissociative recombination of Fe-molecular ions with electrons. Sensitivity experiments with the same chemistry in a 1-D model are used to highlight significant remaining uncertainties in reaction rate coefficients, and to explore the dependence of the total Fe abundance on the MIF and rate of vertical transport.

  6. The Software Architecture of Global Climate Models

    Alexander, K. A.; Easterbrook, S. M.

    2011-12-01

    It has become common to compare and contrast the output of multiple global climate models (GCMs), such as in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). However, intercomparisons of the software architecture of GCMs are almost nonexistent. In this qualitative study of seven GCMs from Canada, the United States, and Europe, we attempt to fill this gap in research. We describe the various representations of the climate system as computer programs, and account for architectural differences between models. Most GCMs now practice component-based software engineering, where Earth system components (such as the atmosphere or land surface) are present as highly encapsulated sub-models. This architecture facilitates a mix-and-match approach to climate modelling that allows for convenient sharing of model components between institutions, but it also leads to difficulty when choosing where to draw the lines between systems that are not encapsulated in the real world, such as sea ice. We also examine different styles of couplers in GCMs, which manage interaction and data flow between components. Finally, we pay particular attention to the varying levels of complexity in GCMs, both between and within models. Many GCMs have some components that are significantly more complex than others, a phenomenon which can be explained by the respective institution's research goals as well as the origin of the model components. In conclusion, although some features of software architecture have been adopted by every GCM we examined, other features show a wide range of different design choices and strategies. These architectural differences may provide new insights into variability and spread between models.

  7. Assessing the impacts of future climate conditions on the effectiveness of winter cover crops in reducing nitrate loads into the Chesapeake Bay Watershed using SWAT model

    Lee, Sangchul; Sadeghi, Ali M.; Yeo, In-Young; McCarty, Gregory W.; Hively, W. Dean

    2017-01-01

    Winter cover crops (WCCs) have been widely implemented in the Coastal Plain of the Chesapeake Bay watershed (CBW) due to their high effectiveness at reducing nitrate loads. However, future climate conditions (FCCs) are expected to exacerbate water quality degradation in the CBW by increasing nitrate loads from agriculture. Accordingly, the question remains whether WCCs are sufficient to mitigate increased nutrient loads caused by FCCs. In this study, we assessed the impacts of FCCs on WCC nitrate reduction efficiency on the Coastal Plain of the CBW using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Three FCC scenarios (2085 – 2098) were prepared using General Circulation Models (GCMs), considering three Intergovernmnental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. We also developed six representative WCC implementation scenarios based on the most commonly used planting dates and species of WCCs in this region. Simulation results showed that WCC biomass increased by ~ 58 % under FCC scenarios, due to climate conditions conducive to the WCC growth. Prior to implementing WCCs, annual nitrate loads increased by ~ 43 % under FCC scenarios compared to the baseline scenario (2001 – 2014). When WCCs were planted, annual nitrate loads were substantially reduced by ~ 48 % and WCC nitrate reduction efficiency water ~ 5 % higher under FCC scenarios relative to the baseline. The increase rate of WCC nitrate reduction efficiency varied by FCC scenarios and WCC planting methods. As CO2 concentration was higher and winters were warmer under FCC scenarios, WCCs had greater biomass and therefore showed higher nitrate reduction efficiency. In response to FCC scenarios, the performance of less effective WCC practices (e.g., barley, wheat, and late planting) under the baseline indicated ~ 14 % higher increase rate of nitrate reduction efficiency compared to ones with better effectiveness under the baseline (e

  8. Evaluation of global solar radiation models for Shanghai, China

    Yao, Wanxiang; Li, Zhengrong; Wang, Yuyan; Jiang, Fujian; Hu, Lingzhou

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • 108 existing models are compared and analyzed by 42 years meteorological data. • Fitting models based on measured data are established according to 42 years data. • All models are compared by recently 10 years meteorological data. • The results show that polynomial models are the most accurate models. - Abstract: In this paper, 89 existing monthly average daily global solar radiation models and 19 existing daily global solar radiation models are compared and analyzed by 42 years meteorological data. The results show that for existing monthly average daily global solar radiation models, linear models and polynomial models have been able to estimate global solar radiation accurately, and complex equation types cannot obviously improve the precision. Considering direct parameters such as latitude, altitude, solar altitude and sunshine duration can help improve the accuracy of the models, but indirect parameters cannot. For existing daily global solar radiation models, multi-parameter models are more accurate than single-parameter models, polynomial models are more accurate than linear models. Then measured data fitting monthly average daily global solar radiation models (MADGSR models) and daily global solar radiation models (DGSR models) are established according to 42 years meteorological data. Finally, existing models and fitting models based on measured data are comparative analysis by recent 10 years meteorological data, and the results show that polynomial models (MADGSR model 2, DGSR model 2 and Maduekwe model 2) are the most accurate models

  9. Studies on the effect of quercetin and nitrates on the redox homeostasis using in vitro model.

    Kurzeja, Ewa; Stec, Małgorzata; Synowiec-Wojtarowicz, Agnieszka; Jowsa, Andrzej; Pawłowska-Góral, Katarzyna

    2014-07-01

    Antioxidants are widely considered to be a preventive measure for many diseases and beneficial for health. However, an increasing number of reports suggest a lack of any influence by antioxidants on health or even harmful pro-oxidative effects of antioxidants. In most cases, the research was conducted with respect to a chosen antioxidant, without considering the presence of other chemical substances present in food, with which these compounds may react. The aim of this work was to determine whether and to what extent the simultaneous presence of quercetin and sodium nitrate influences oxidative-reductive homeostasis in fibroblast cultures. Superoxide dismutase (SOD), glutathione peroxidase (GPx), glutathione reductase (GR), and nitric oxide synthase (NOS) activities were measured together with nitric oxide (NO) concentration and total antioxidant status (TAS). An increase in the activity of all the enzymes measured and in the NO concentration was determined compared with the control culture. The most prominent changes were observed at the highest quercetin concentration. These results indicate that the simultaneous presence of quercetin and sodium nitrate disrupts the oxidative-reductive homeostasis in fibroblasts. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Astaxanthin Restrains Nitrative-Oxidative Peroxidation in Mitochondrial-Mimetic Liposomes: A Pre-Apoptosis Model

    Mano, Camila M.; Cardozo, Karina H. M.; Colepicolo, Pio; Bechara, Etelvino J. H.

    2018-01-01

    Astaxanthin (ASTA) is a ketocarotenoid found in many marine organisms and that affords many benefits to human health. ASTA is particularly effective against radical-mediated lipid peroxidation, and recent findings hypothesize a “mitochondrial-targeted” action of ASTA in cells. Therefore, we examined the protective effects of ASTA against lipid peroxidation in zwitterionic phosphatidylcholine liposomes (PCLs) and anionic phosphatidylcholine: phosphatidylglycerol liposomes (PCPGLs), at different pHs (6.2 to 8.0), which were challenged by oxidizing/nitrating conditions that mimic the regular and preapoptotic redox environment of active mitochondria. Pre-apoptotic conditions were created by oxidized/nitr(osyl)ated cytochrome c and resulted in the highest levels of lipoperoxidation in both PCL and PCPGLs (pH 7.4). ASTA was less protective at acidic conditions, especially in anionic PCPGLs. Our data demonstrated the ability of ASTA to hamper oxidative and nitrative events that lead to cytochrome c-peroxidase apoptosis and lipid peroxidation, although its efficiency changes with pH and lipid composition of membranes. PMID:29649159

  11. Global patterns and environmental controls of perchlorate and nitrate co-occurrence in arid and semi-arid environments

    Jackson, W Andrew; Böhlke, John Karl; Andraski, Brian J.; Fahlquist, Lynne S.; Bexfield, Laura M.; Eckardt, Frank D.; Gates, John B.; Davila, Alfonso F.; McKay, Christopher P.; Rao, Balaji; Sevanthi, Ritesh; Rajagopalan, Srinath; Estrada, Nubia; Sturchio, Neil C.; Hatzinger, Paul B.; Anderson, Todd A.; Orris, Greta J.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Stonestrom, David A.; Latorre, Claudio; Li, Yanhe; Harvey, Gregory J.

    2015-01-01

    Natural perchlorate (ClO4−) is of increasing interest due to its wide-spread occurrence on Earth and Mars, yet little information exists on the relative abundance of ClO4− compared to other major anions, its stability, or long-term variations in production that may impact the observed distributions. Our objectives were to evaluate the occurrence and fate of ClO4− in groundwater and soils/caliche in arid and semi-arid environments (southwestern United States, southern Africa, United Arab Emirates, China, Antarctica, and Chile) and the relationship of ClO4− to the more well-studied atmospherically deposited anions NO3−and Cl− as a means to understand the prevalent processes that affect the accumulation of these species over various time scales. ClO4− is globally distributed in soil and groundwater in arid and semi-arid regions on Earth at concentrations ranging from 10−1to 106 μg/kg. Generally, the ClO4− concentration in these regions increases with aridity index, but also depends on the duration of arid conditions. In many arid and semi-arid areas, NO3− and ClO4− co-occur at molar ratios (NO3−/ClO4−) that vary between ∼104and 105. We hypothesize that atmospheric deposition ratios are largely preserved in hyper-arid areas that support little or no biological activity (e.g. plants or bacteria), but can be altered in areas with more active biological processes including N2 fixation, N mineralization, nitrification, denitrification, and microbial ClO4− reduction, as indicated in part by NO3− isotope data. In contrast, much larger ranges of Cl−/ClO4− and Cl−/NO3−ratios indicate Cl− varies independently from both ClO4− and NO3−. The general lack of correlation between Cl− and ClO4− or NO3− implies that Cl− is not a good indicator of co-deposition and should be used with care when interpreting oxyanion cycling in arid systems. The Atacama Desert appears to be unique compared to all other terrestrial locations having a

  12. Global patterns and environmental controls of perchlorate and nitrate co-occurrence in arid and semi-arid environments

    Jackson, W. Andrew; Böhlke, J. K.; Andraski, Brian J.; Fahlquist, Lynne; Bexfield, Laura; Eckardt, Frank D.; Gates, John B.; Davila, Alfonso F.; McKay, Christopher P.; Rao, Balaji; Sevanthi, Ritesh; Rajagopalan, Srinath; Estrada, Nubia; Sturchio, Neil; Hatzinger, Paul B.; Anderson, Todd A.; Orris, Greta; Betancourt, Julio; Stonestrom, David; Latorre, Claudio; Li, Yanhe; Harvey, Gregory J.

    2015-09-01

    Natural perchlorate (ClO4-) is of increasing interest due to its wide-spread occurrence on Earth and Mars, yet little information exists on the relative abundance of ClO4- compared to other major anions, its stability, or long-term variations in production that may impact the observed distributions. Our objectives were to evaluate the occurrence and fate of ClO4- in groundwater and soils/caliche in arid and semi-arid environments (southwestern United States, southern Africa, United Arab Emirates, China, Antarctica, and Chile) and the relationship of ClO4- to the more well-studied atmospherically deposited anions NO3- and Cl- as a means to understand the prevalent processes that affect the accumulation of these species over various time scales. ClO4- is globally distributed in soil and groundwater in arid and semi-arid regions on Earth at concentrations ranging from 10-1 to 106 μg/kg. Generally, the ClO4- concentration in these regions increases with aridity index, but also depends on the duration of arid conditions. In many arid and semi-arid areas, NO3- and ClO4- co-occur at molar ratios (NO3-/ClO4-) that vary between ∼104 and 105. We hypothesize that atmospheric deposition ratios are largely preserved in hyper-arid areas that support little or no biological activity (e.g. plants or bacteria), but can be altered in areas with more active biological processes including N2 fixation, N mineralization, nitrification, denitrification, and microbial ClO4- reduction, as indicated in part by NO3- isotope data. In contrast, much larger ranges of Cl-/ClO4- and Cl-/NO3- ratios indicate Cl- varies independently from both ClO4- and NO3-. The general lack of correlation between Cl- and ClO4- or NO3- implies that Cl- is not a good indicator of co-deposition and should be used with care when interpreting oxyanion cycling in arid systems. The Atacama Desert appears to be unique compared to all other terrestrial locations having a NO3-/ClO4- molar ratio ∼103. The relative

  13. Ammonium nitrate-potassium nitrate system

    Cady, H.H.

    1981-01-01

    A portion of the binary phase diagram for the system ammonium nitrate-potassium nitrate has been determined from -55/sup 0/C to 185/sup 0/C. Results are presented for the ammonium-nitrate-rich end of the system up to 30 wt% potassium nitrate.

  14. A novel modelling approach for spatial and temporal variations in nitrate concentrations in an N-impacted UK small upland river basin

    Smart, Richard P.; Cresser, Malcolm S.; Calver, Louise J.; Clark, Matthew; Chapman, Pippa J.

    2005-01-01

    Monthly data for 11 moorland streams displaying marked seasonality and spatial variation in nitrate concentrations have been used with readily available catchment characteristics to develop a method for predicting stream water nitrate concentrations throughout an upland river network in the Lake District, UK. Over a 12-month period, a simple asymmetric truncated cosine function of day number is used to describe seasonality effects on stream water nitrate concentrations. This is then adjusted to compensate for differences in seasonality effects with catchment elevation. Occurrence of greater proportions of steeper slopes (>20 deg. -40 deg. ) in individual catchments facilitated nitrate leaching, as did increased extent of occurrence of outcropping rocks. It is shown that the spatial and temporal variation in nitrate concentration through the river network studied may therefore be effectively represented by an equation which is a function of day number, % outcropping rock and % of catchment area with a >20 deg. -40 deg. slope. - A novel model of spatial and temporal variations in stream water nitrate concentration throughout an N-impacted upland catchment is described

  15. A global digital elevation model - GTOP030

    1999-01-01

    GTOP030, the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) digital elevation model (DEM) of the Earth, provides the flrst global coverage of moderate resolution elevation data.  The original GTOP30 data set, which was developed over a 3-year period through a collaborative effort led by the USGS, was completed in 1996 at the USGS EROS Data Center in Sioux Falls, South Dakota.  The collaboration involved contributions of staffing, funding, or source data from cooperators including the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the United Nations Environment Programme Global Resource Information Database (UNEP/GRID), the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), the Instituto Nacional de Estadistica Geografia e Informatica (INEGI) of Mexico, the Geographical Survey Institute (GSI) of Japan, Manaaki Whenua Landcare Research of New Zealand, and the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR). In 1999, work was begun on an update to the GTOP030 data set. Additional data sources are being incorporated into GTOP030 with an enhanced and improved data set planned for release in 2000.

  16. Use of wind data in global modelling

    Pailleux, J.

    1985-01-01

    The European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is producing operational global analyses every 6 hours and operational global forecasts every day from the 12Z analysis. How the wind data are used in the ECMWF golbal analysis is described. For each current wind observing system, its ability to provide initial conditions for the forecast model is discussed as well as its weaknesses. An assessment of the impact of each individual system on the quality of the analysis and the forecast is given each time it is possible. Sometimes the deficiencies which are pointed out are related not only to the observing system itself but also to the optimum interpolation (OI) analysis scheme; then some improvements are generally possible through ad hoc modifications of the analysis scheme and especially tunings of the structure functions. Examples are given. The future observing network over the North Atlantic is examined. Several countries, coordinated by WMO, are working to set up an 'Operational WWW System Evaluation' (OWSE), in order to evaluate the operational aspects of the deployment of new systems (ASDAR, ASAP). Most of the new systems are expected to be deployed before January 1987, and in order to make the best use of the available resources during the deployment phase, some network studies are carried out at the present time, by using simulated data for ASDAR and ASAP systems. They are summarized.

  17. 2-D model of global aerosol transport

    Rehkopf, J; Newiger, M; Grassl, H

    1984-01-01

    The distribution of aerosol particles in the troposphere is described. Starting with long term mean seasonal flow and diffusivities as well as temperature, cloud distribution (six cloud classes), relative humidity and OH radical concentration, the steady state concentration of aerosol particles and SO/sub 2/ are calculated in a two-dimensional global (height and latitude) model. The following sources and sinks for particles are handled: direct emission, gas-to-particle conversion from SO/sub 2/, coagulation, rainout, washout, gravitational settling, and dry deposition. The sinks considered for sulphur emissions are dry deposition, washout, rainout, gasphase oxidation, and aqueous phase oxidation. Model tests with the water vapour cycle show a good agreement between measured and calculated zonal mean precipitation distribution. The steady state concentration distribution for natural emissions reached after 10 weeks model time, may be described by a mean exponent ..cap alpha.. = 3.2 near the surface assuming a modified Junge distribution and an increased value, ..cap alpha.. = 3.7, for the combined natural and man-made emission. The maximum ground level concentrations are 2000 and 10,000 particules cm/sup -3/ for natural and natural plus man-made emissions, respectively. The resulting distribution of sulphur dioxide agrees satisfactorily with measurements given by several authors. 37 references, 4 figures.

  18. Integrated assessment models of global climate change

    Parson, E.A.; Fisher-Vanden, K.

    1997-01-01

    The authors review recent work in the integrated assessment modeling of global climate change. This field has grown rapidly since 1990. Integrated assessment models seek to combine knowledge from multiple disciplines in formal integrated representations; inform policy-making, structure knowledge, and prioritize key uncertainties; and advance knowledge of broad system linkages and feedbacks, particularly between socio-economic and bio-physical processes. They may combine simplified representations of the socio-economic determinants of greenhouse gas emissions, the atmosphere and oceans, impacts on human activities and ecosystems, and potential policies and responses. The authors summarize current projects, grouping them according to whether they emphasize the dynamics of emissions control and optimal policy-making, uncertainty, or spatial detail. They review the few significant insights that have been claimed from work to date and identify important challenges for integrated assessment modeling in its relationships to disciplinary knowledge and to broader assessment seeking to inform policy- and decision-making. 192 refs., 2 figs

  19. Development of a global aerosol model using a two-dimensional sectional method: 1. Model design

    Matsui, H.

    2017-08-01

    This study develops an aerosol module, the Aerosol Two-dimensional bin module for foRmation and Aging Simulation version 2 (ATRAS2), and implements the module into a global climate model, Community Atmosphere Model. The ATRAS2 module uses a two-dimensional (2-D) sectional representation with 12 size bins for particles from 1 nm to 10 μm in dry diameter and 8 black carbon (BC) mixing state bins. The module can explicitly calculate the enhancement of absorption and cloud condensation nuclei activity of BC-containing particles by aging processes. The ATRAS2 module is an extension of a 2-D sectional aerosol module ATRAS used in our previous studies within a framework of a regional three-dimensional model. Compared with ATRAS, the computational cost of the aerosol module is reduced by more than a factor of 10 by simplifying the treatment of aerosol processes and 2-D sectional representation, while maintaining good accuracy of aerosol parameters in the simulations. Aerosol processes are simplified for condensation of sulfate, ammonium, and nitrate, organic aerosol formation, coagulation, and new particle formation processes, and box model simulations show that these simplifications do not substantially change the predicted aerosol number and mass concentrations and their mixing states. The 2-D sectional representation is simplified (the number of advected species is reduced) primarily by the treatment of chemical compositions using two interactive bin representations. The simplifications do not change the accuracy of global aerosol simulations. In part 2, comparisons with measurements and the results focused on aerosol processes such as BC aging processes are shown.

  20. Air–snow exchange of nitrate: a modelling approach to investigate physicochemical processes in surface snow at Dome C, Antarctica

    J. Bock

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Snowpack is a multiphase (photochemical reactor that strongly influences the air composition in polar and snow-covered regions. Snowpack plays a special role in the nitrogen cycle, as it has been shown that nitrate undergoes numerous recycling stages (including photolysis in the snow before being permanently buried in the ice. However, the current understanding of these physicochemical processes remains very poor. Several modelling studies have attempted to reproduce (photochemical reactions inside snow grains, but these have relied on strong assumptions to characterise snow reactive properties, which are not well defined. Air–snow exchange processes such as adsorption, solid-state diffusion, or co-condensation also affect snow chemical composition. Here, we present a physically based model of these processes for nitrate. Using as input a 1-year-long time series of atmospheric nitrate concentration measured at Dome C, Antarctica, our model reproduces with good agreement the nitrate measurements in the surface snow. By investigating the relative importance of the main exchange processes, this study shows that, on the one hand, the combination of bulk diffusion and co-condensation allows a good reproduction of the measurements (correlation coefficient r = 0.95, with a correct amplitude and timing of summer peak concentration of nitrate in snow. During winter, nitrate concentration in surface snow is mainly driven by thermodynamic equilibrium, whilst the peak observed in summer is explained by the kinetic process of co-condensation. On the other hand, the adsorption of nitric acid on the surface of the snow grains, constrained by an already existing parameterisation for the isotherm, fails to fit the observed variations. During winter and spring, the modelled concentration of adsorbed nitrate is respectively 2.5 and 8.3-fold higher than the measured one. A strong diurnal variation driven by the temperature cycle and a peak occurring in early

  1. Accounting for the Decreasing Denitrification Potential of Aquifers in Travel-Time Based Reactive-Transport Models of Nitrate

    Cirpka, O. A.; Loschko, M.; Wöhling, T.; Rudolph, D. L.

    2017-12-01

    Excess nitrate concentrations pose a threat to drinking-water production from groundwater in all regions of intensive agriculture worldwide. Natural organic matter, pyrite, and other reduced constituents of the aquifer matrix can be oxidized by aerobic and denitrifying bacteria, leading to self-cleaning of groundwater. Various studies have shown that the heterogeneity of both hydraulic and chemical aquifer properties influence the reactive behavior. Since the exact spatial distributions of these properties are not known, predictions on the temporal evolution of nitrate should be probabilistic. However, the computational effort of pde-based, spatially explicit multi-component reactive-transport simulations are so high that multiple model runs become impossible. Conversely, simplistic models that treat denitrification as first-order decay process miss important controls on denitrification. We have proposed a Lagrangian framework of nonlinear reactive transport, in which the electron-donor supply by the aquifer matrix is parameterized by a relative reactivity, that is the reaction rate relative to a standard reaction rate for identical solute concentrations (Loschko et al., 2016). We could show that reactive transport simplifies to solving a single ordinary dfferential equation in terms of the cumulative relative reactivity for a given combination of inflow concentrations. Simulating 3-D flow and reactive transport are computationally so inexpensive that Monte Carlo simulation become feasible. The original scheme did not consider a change of the relative reactivity over time, implying that the electron-donor pool in the matrix is infinite. We have modified the scheme to address the consumption of the reducing aquifer constituents upon the reactions. We also analyzed how a minimally complex model of aerobic respiration and denitrification could look like. With the revised scheme, we performed Monte Carlo simulations in 3-D domains, confirming that the uncertainty in

  2. Calibration of a simple and a complex model of global marine biogeochemistry

    Kriest, Iris

    2017-11-01

    The assessment of the ocean biota's role in climate change is often carried out with global biogeochemical ocean models that contain many components and involve a high level of parametric uncertainty. Because many data that relate to tracers included in a model are only sparsely observed, assessment of model skill is often restricted to tracers that can be easily measured and assembled. Examination of the models' fit to climatologies of inorganic tracers, after the models have been spun up to steady state, is a common but computationally expensive procedure to assess model performance and reliability. Using new tools that have become available for global model assessment and calibration in steady state, this paper examines two different model types - a complex seven-component model (MOPS) and a very simple four-component model (RetroMOPS) - for their fit to dissolved quantities. Before comparing the models, a subset of their biogeochemical parameters has been optimised against annual-mean nutrients and oxygen. Both model types fit the observations almost equally well. The simple model contains only two nutrients: oxygen and dissolved organic phosphorus (DOP). Its misfit and large-scale tracer distributions are sensitive to the parameterisation of DOP production and decay. The spatio-temporal decoupling of nitrogen and oxygen, and processes involved in their uptake and release, renders oxygen and nitrate valuable tracers for model calibration. In addition, the non-conservative nature of these tracers (with respect to their upper boundary condition) introduces the global bias (fixed nitrogen and oxygen inventory) as a useful additional constraint on model parameters. Dissolved organic phosphorus at the surface behaves antagonistically to phosphate, and suggests that observations of this tracer - although difficult to measure - may be an important asset for model calibration.

  3. BETR global - A geographically-explicit global-scale multimedia contaminant fate model

    MacLeod, Matthew; Waldow, Harald von; Tay, Pascal; Armitage, James M.; Woehrnschimmel, Henry; Riley, William J.; McKone, Thomas E.; Hungerbuhler, Konrad

    2011-01-01

    We present two new software implementations of the BETR Global multimedia contaminant fate model. The model uses steady-state or non-steady-state mass-balance calculations to describe the fate and transport of persistent organic pollutants using a desktop computer. The global environment is described using a database of long-term average monthly conditions on a 15 o x 15 o grid. We demonstrate BETR Global by modeling the global sources, transport, and removal of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5). - Two new software implementations of the Berkeley-Trent Global Contaminant Fate Model are available. The new model software is illustrated using a case study of the global fate of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5).

  4. A partial exponential lumped parameter model to evaluate groundwater age distributions and nitrate trends in long-screened wells

    Jurgens, Bryant; Böhlke, John Karl; Kauffman, Leon J.; Belitz, Kenneth; Esser, Bradley K.

    2016-01-01

    A partial exponential lumped parameter model (PEM) was derived to determine age distributions and nitrate trends in long-screened production wells. The PEM can simulate age distributions for wells screened over any finite interval of an aquifer that has an exponential distribution of age with depth. The PEM has 3 parameters – the ratio of saturated thickness to the top and bottom of the screen and mean age, but these can be reduced to 1 parameter (mean age) by using well construction information and estimates of the saturated thickness. The PEM was tested with data from 30 production wells in a heterogeneous alluvial fan aquifer in California, USA. Well construction data were used to guide parameterization of a PEM for each well and mean age was calibrated to measured environmental tracer data (3H, 3He, CFC-113, and 14C). Results were compared to age distributions generated for individual wells using advective particle tracking models (PTMs). Age distributions from PTMs were more complex than PEM distributions, but PEMs provided better fits to tracer data, partly because the PTMs did not simulate 14C accurately in wells that captured varying amounts of old groundwater recharged at lower rates prior to groundwater development and irrigation. Nitrate trends were simulated independently of the calibration process and the PEM provided good fits for at least 11 of 24 wells. This work shows that the PEM, and lumped parameter models (LPMs) in general, can often identify critical features of the age distributions in wells that are needed to explain observed tracer data and nonpoint source contaminant trends, even in systems where aquifer heterogeneity and water-use complicate distributions of age. While accurate PTMs are preferable for understanding and predicting aquifer-scale responses to water use and contaminant transport, LPMs can be sensitive to local conditions near individual wells that may be inaccurately represented or missing in an aquifer-scale flow model.

  5. Modelling and analysis of global coal markets

    Trueby, Johannes

    2013-01-01

    International Steam Coal Trade. In this paper, we analyse steam coal market equilibria in the years 2006 and 2008 by testing for two possible market structure scenarios: perfect competition and an oligopoly setup with major exporters competing in quantities. The assumed oligopoly scenario cannot explain market equilibria for any year. While we find that the competitive model simulates market equilibria well in 2006, the competitive model is not able to reproduce real market outcomes in 2008. The analysis shows that not all available supply capacity was utilised in 2008. We conclude that either unknown capacity bottlenecks or more sophisticated non-competitive strategies were the cause for the high prices in 2008. Chapter 4 builds upon the findings of the analysis in chapter 3 and adds a more detailed representation of domestic markets. The corresponding essay is titled Nations as Strategic Players in Global Commodity Markets: Evidence from World Coal Trade. In this chapter we explore the hypothesis that export policies and trade patterns of national players in the steam coal market are consistent with non-competitive market behaviour. We test this hypothesis by developing a static equilibrium model which is able to model coal producing nations as strategic players. We explicitly account for integrated seaborne trade and domestic markets. The global steam coal market is simulated under several imperfect market structure setups. We find that trade and prices of a China - Indonesia duopoly fits the real market outcome best and that real Chinese export quotas in 2008 were consistent with simulated exports under a Cournot-Nash strategy. Chapter 5 looks at the long-term effect of Chinese energy system planning decisions. The time horizon is 2006 to 2030. The analysis in this chapter combines a dynamic equilibrium model with the scenario analysis technique. The corresponding essay is titled Coal Lumps vs. Electrons: How Do Chinese Bulk Energy Transport Decisions Affect the Global

  6. Modelling and analysis of global coal markets

    Trueby, Johannes

    2013-01-17

    International Steam Coal Trade. In this paper, we analyse steam coal market equilibria in the years 2006 and 2008 by testing for two possible market structure scenarios: perfect competition and an oligopoly setup with major exporters competing in quantities. The assumed oligopoly scenario cannot explain market equilibria for any year. While we find that the competitive model simulates market equilibria well in 2006, the competitive model is not able to reproduce real market outcomes in 2008. The analysis shows that not all available supply capacity was utilised in 2008. We conclude that either unknown capacity bottlenecks or more sophisticated non-competitive strategies were the cause for the high prices in 2008. Chapter 4 builds upon the findings of the analysis in chapter 3 and adds a more detailed representation of domestic markets. The corresponding essay is titled Nations as Strategic Players in Global Commodity Markets: Evidence from World Coal Trade. In this chapter we explore the hypothesis that export policies and trade patterns of national players in the steam coal market are consistent with non-competitive market behaviour. We test this hypothesis by developing a static equilibrium model which is able to model coal producing nations as strategic players. We explicitly account for integrated seaborne trade and domestic markets. The global steam coal market is simulated under several imperfect market structure setups. We find that trade and prices of a China - Indonesia duopoly fits the real market outcome best and that real Chinese export quotas in 2008 were consistent with simulated exports under a Cournot-Nash strategy. Chapter 5 looks at the long-term effect of Chinese energy system planning decisions. The time horizon is 2006 to 2030. The analysis in this chapter combines a dynamic equilibrium model with the scenario analysis technique. The corresponding essay is titled Coal Lumps vs. Electrons: How Do Chinese Bulk Energy Transport Decisions Affect the Global

  7. Monitoring and Modeling the Fate and Transport of Nitrate in the Vadose Zone beneath a Suwannee River Basin Vegetable Farm

    Albert, M. A.; Graham, W. D.; Graetz, D.

    2002-05-01

    The Suwannee River basin has received much attention in recent years due to increased nitrogen levels in the groundwater-fed rivers of the basin that could seriously affect the welfare of this ecosystem. Nitrogen levels have increased from 0.1mg/l NO3-N to more than 5 mg/L NO3-N in many springs in the Suwannee Basin over the past 40 years. Nitrate concentrations in the Suwannee River itself have been increasing at the rate of .02 mg/L per year over the past 20 years. Suwannee River nitrate loads increase from 2300 kg/day to 6000 kg/day over a 33 mile stretch of the river between Dowling Park and Branford, Florida. Within this stretch of river, 89% of the nitrate loading appeared to come from the lower two-thirds, where agriculture is the dominant land use. The objective of this research is to monitor and model the impacts of alternative nutrient and water management practices on soil water quality, groundwater quality and crop yield at a commercial vegetable farm in the Suwannee River Basin. Groundwater monitoring wells, suction lysimeters, soil cores and TDR probes are used to monitor water and nitrogen transport at the site. Periodic plant biomass sampling is conducted to determine nitrogen uptake by the plants and to estimate crop yield. Field data show that two-thirds of the nitrogen applied to the spring 2001 potato crop leached to groundwater due to excessive irrigation and poor nitrogen uptake efficiency by the potatoes. The DSSAT35-Potato Crop model and the LEACHM vadose-zone model were calibrated for the spring 2001 potato crop and used to predict nitrogen leaching and crop yield for alternative management practices. Simulation results show that by reducing the duration of irrigation, reducing the fertilizer application rate, and improving the timing of fertilizer applications, nitrogen leaching can be reduced by approximately 50% while maintaining acceptable crop yields. Results of this project will ultimately be used to develop best management practices

  8. Aminoethyl nitrate – the novel super nitrate?

    Bauersachs, Johann

    2009-01-01

    Long-term use of most organic nitrates is limited by development of tolerance, induction of oxidative stress and endothelial dysfunction. In this issue of the BJP, Schuhmacher et al. characterized a novel class of organic nitrates with amino moieties (aminoalkyl nitrates). Aminoethyl nitrate was identified as a novel organic mononitrate with high potency but devoid of induction of mitochondrial oxidative stress. Cross-tolerance to nitroglycerin or the endothelium-dependent agonist acetylcholine after in vivo treatment was not observed. Like all nitrates, aminoethyl nitrate induced vasorelaxation by activation of soluble guanylate cyclase. Thus, in contrast to the prevailing view, high potency in an organic nitrate is not necessarily accompanied by induction of oxidative stress or endothelial dysfunction. This work from Daiber's group is an important step forward in the understanding of nitrate bioactivation, tolerance phenomena and towards the development of better organic nitrates for clinical use. PMID:19732062

  9. BETR Global - A geographically explicit global-scale multimedia contaminant fate model

    Macleod, M.; Waldow, H. von; Tay, P.; Armitage, J. M.; Wohrnschimmel, H.; Riley, W.; McKone, T. E.; Hungerbuhler, K.

    2011-04-01

    We present two new software implementations of the BETR Global multimedia contaminant fate model. The model uses steady-state or non-steady-state mass-balance calculations to describe the fate and transport of persistent organic pollutants using a desktop computer. The global environment is described using a database of long-term average monthly conditions on a 15{sup o} x 15{sup o} grid. We demonstrate BETR Global by modeling the global sources, transport, and removal of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5).

  10. Moduli stabilisation for chiral global models

    Cicoli, Michele; Mayrhofer, Christoph; Valandro, Roberto

    2011-10-01

    We combine moduli stabilisation and (chiral) model building in a fully consistent global set-up in Type IIB/F-theory. We consider compactifications on Calabi-Yau orientifolds which admit an explicit description in terms of toric geometry. We build globally consistent compactifications with tadpole and Freed-Witten anomaly cancellation by choosing appropriate brane set-ups and world-volume fluxes which also give rise to SU(5)- or MSSM-like chiral models. We fix all the Kaehler moduli within the Kaehler cone and the regime of validity of the 4D effective field theory. This is achieved in a way compatible with the local presence of chirality. The hidden sector generating the non-perturbative effects is placed on a del Pezzo divisor that does not have any chiral intersections with any other brane. In general, the vanishing D-term condition implies the shrinking of the rigid divisor supporting the visible sector. However, we avoid this problem by generating r< n D-term conditions on a set of n intersecting divisors. The remaining (n-r) flat directions are fixed by perturbative corrections to the Kaehler potential. We illustrate our general claims in an explicit example. We consider a K3-fibred Calabi-Yau with four Kaehler moduli, that is an hypersurface in a toric ambient space and admits a simple F-theory up-lift. We present explicit choices of brane set-ups and fluxes which lead to three different phenomenological scenarios: the first with GUT-scale strings and TeV-scale SUSY by fine-tuning the background fluxes; the second with an exponentially large value of the volume and TeV-scale SUSY without fine-tuning the background fluxes; and the third with a very anisotropic configuration that leads to TeV-scale strings and two micron-sized extra dimensions. The K3 fibration structure of the Calabi-Yau three-fold is also particularly suitable for cosmological purposes. (orig.)

  11. Moduli stabilisation for chiral global models

    Cicoli, Michele [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany); Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste (Italy); Mayrhofer, Christoph [Heidelberg Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Theoretische Physik; Valandro, Roberto [Hamburg Univ. (Germany). 2. Inst. fuer Theoretische Physik

    2011-10-15

    We combine moduli stabilisation and (chiral) model building in a fully consistent global set-up in Type IIB/F-theory. We consider compactifications on Calabi-Yau orientifolds which admit an explicit description in terms of toric geometry. We build globally consistent compactifications with tadpole and Freed-Witten anomaly cancellation by choosing appropriate brane set-ups and world-volume fluxes which also give rise to SU(5)- or MSSM-like chiral models. We fix all the Kaehler moduli within the Kaehler cone and the regime of validity of the 4D effective field theory. This is achieved in a way compatible with the local presence of chirality. The hidden sector generating the non-perturbative effects is placed on a del Pezzo divisor that does not have any chiral intersections with any other brane. In general, the vanishing D-term condition implies the shrinking of the rigid divisor supporting the visible sector. However, we avoid this problem by generating r

  12. Global plastic models for computerized structural analysis

    Roche, R.; Hoffmann, A.

    1977-01-01

    Two different global models are used in the CEASEMT system for structural analysis, one for the shells analysis and the other for piping analysis (in plastic or creep field). In shell analysis the generalized stresses choosed are the membrane forces Nsub(ij) and bending (including torsion) moments Msub(ij). There is only one yield condition for a normal (to the middle surface) and no integration along the thickness is required. In piping analysis, the choice of generalized stresses is: bending moments, torsional moments, Hoop stress and tension stress. There is only a set of stresses for a cross section and non integration over the cross section area is needed. Connected strains are axis curvature, torsion, uniform strains. The definition of the yield surface is the most important item. A practical way is to use a diagonal quadratic fonction of the stress components. But the coefficients are depending of the shape of the pipe element, especially for curved segments. Indications will be given on the yield fonctions used. Some examples of applications in structural analysis are added to the text [fr

  13. In what root-zone N concentration does nitrate start to leach significantly? A reasonable answer from modeling Mediterranean field data and closed root-zone experiments

    Kurtzman, D.; Kanner, B.; Levy, Y.; Shapira, R. H.; Bar-Tal, A.

    2017-12-01

    Closed-root-zone experiments (e.g. pots, lyzimeters) reveal in many cases a mineral-nitrogen (N) concentration from which the root-N-uptake efficiency reduces significantly and nitrate leaching below the root-zone increases dramatically. A les-direct way to reveal this threshold concentration in agricultural fields is to calibrate N-transport models of the unsaturated zone to nitrate data of the deep samples (under the root-zone) by fitting the threshold concentration of the nitrate-uptake function. Independent research efforts of these two types in light soils where nitrate problems in underlying aquifers are common reviled: 1) that the threshold exists for most crops (filed, vegetables and orchards); 2) nice agreement on the threshold value between the two very different research methodologies; and 3) the threshold lies within 20-50 mg-N/L. Focusing on being below the threshold is a relatively simple aim in the way to maintain intensive agriculture with limited effects on the nitrate concentration in the underlying water resource. Our experience show that in some crops this threshold coincides with the end-of-rise of the N-yield curve (e.g. corn); in this case, it is relatively easy to convince farmers to fertilize below threshold. In other crops, although significant N is lost to leaching the crop can still use higher N concentration to increase yield (e.g. potato).

  14. Global Information Enterprise (GIE) Modeling and Simulation (GIESIM)

    Bell, Paul

    2005-01-01

    ... AND S) toolkits into the Global Information Enterprise (GIE) Modeling and Simulation (GIESim) framework to create effective user analysis of candidate communications architectures and technologies...

  15. Model-Based Integration and Analysis of Biogeochemical and Isotopic Dynamics in a Nitrate-Polluted Pyritic Aquifer

    Zhang, Y.C.; Prommer, H.; Slomp, C.P.; Broers, H.P.; van der Grift, B.; Passier, H.F.; Greskowiak, J.; Boettcher, M.E.; van Capellen, P.

    2013-01-01

    Leaching of nitrate from agricultural land to groundwater and the resulting nitrate pollution are a major environmental problem worldwide. Its impact is often mitigated in aquifers hosting sufficiently reactive reductants that can promote autotrophic denitrification. In the case of pyrite acting as

  16. Model-based integration and analysis of biogeochemical and isotopic dynamics in a nitrate-polluted pyritic aquifer

    Zhang, Y.-C.; Prommer, H.; Broers, H.P.; Slomp, C.P.; Greskowiak, J.; Van Der Grift, B.; Van Cappellen, P.

    2013-01-01

    Leaching of nitrate from agricultural land to groundwater and the resulting nitrate pollution are a major environmental problem worldwide. Its impact is often mitigated in aquifers hosting sufficiently reactive reductants that can promote autotrophic denitrification. In the case of pyrite acting as

  17. SEP modeling based on global heliospheric models at the CCMC

    Mays, M. L.; Luhmann, J. G.; Odstrcil, D.; Bain, H. M.; Schwadron, N.; Gorby, M.; Li, Y.; Lee, K.; Zeitlin, C.; Jian, L. K.; Lee, C. O.; Mewaldt, R. A.; Galvin, A. B.

    2017-12-01

    Heliospheric models provide contextual information of conditions in the heliosphere, including the background solar wind conditions and shock structures, and are used as input to SEP models, providing an essential tool for understanding SEP properties. The global 3D MHD WSA-ENLIL+Cone model provides a time-dependent background heliospheric description, into which a spherical shaped hydrodynamic CME can be inserted. ENLIL simulates solar wind parameters and additionally one can extract the magnetic topologies of observer-connected magnetic field lines and all plasma and shock properties along those field lines. An accurate representation of the background solar wind is necessary for simulating transients. ENLIL simulations also drive SEP models such as the Solar Energetic Particle Model (SEPMOD) (Luhmann et al. 2007, 2010) and the Energetic Particle Radiation Environment Module (EPREM) (Schwadron et al. 2010). The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is in the process of making these SEP models available to the community and offering a system to run SEP models driven by a variety of heliospheric models available at CCMC. SEPMOD injects protons onto a sequence of observer field lines at intensities dependent on the connected shock source strength which are then integrated at the observer to approximate the proton flux. EPREM couples with MHD models such as ENLIL and computes energetic particle distributions based on the focused transport equation along a Lagrangian grid of nodes that propagate out with the solar wind. The coupled SEP models allow us to derive the longitudinal distribution of SEP profiles of different types of events throughout the heliosphere. The coupled ENLIL and SEP models allow us to derive the longitudinal distribution of SEP profiles of different types of events throughout the heliosphere. In this presentation we demonstrate several case studies of SEP event modeling at different observers based on WSA-ENLIL+Cone simulations.

  18. Globalization and Shanghai Model: A Retrospective and Prospective Analysis

    Linsun Cheng

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Intended to shed light on the debate on the results of globalization and providebetter understanding of the influences of globalization upon China as well as theworld, this article traces the history of Shanghai’s economic globalization over thepast 170 years since 1843 and demonstrates the benefits and problems Shanghaireceived from (or connected to its economic globalization. Divided into threesections (Globalization, de-globalization and re-globalization of Shanghai’s economy;Manufacturing-Oriented vs. Tertiary-oriented—Shanghai’s Double PriorityStrategy of Economic Growth; Free market, state enterprises, and Shanghai’s mixedeconomy the article summarizes and analyzes several characteristics that madeShanghai a unique model in the history of globalization: In adapting and adoptinginevitable economic globalization, Shanghai created its unique model of economicdevelopment—widely embracing economic globalization; placing Shanghai’seconomy on a solid foundation of both strong modern manufacturing and strongtertiary industry (consisting of finance and insurance, real estate, transportations,post and telecommunication, wholesale and retailing; and creating a mixedeconomic structure with hybrid of private and state owned enterprises. TheShanghai model proves that globalization has been an unavoidable trend as scienceand technology have made the world “smaller” and “smaller.” Actively engaging intoeconomic globalization is the only way for Shanghai, as well as many developingcountries, to accelerate its economic growth.

  19. Nitrate fluxes to groundwater under citrus orchards in a Mediterranean climate: Observations, calibrated models, simulations and agro-hydrological conclusions

    Kurtzman, Daniel; Shapira, Roi H.; Bar-Tal, Asher; Fine, Pinchas; Russo, David

    2013-08-01

    Nitrate contamination of groundwater under land used for intensive-agriculture is probably the most worrisome agro-hydrological sustainability problem worldwide. Vadose-zone samples from 0 to 9 m depth under citrus orchards overlying an unconfined aquifer were analyzed for variables controlling water flow and the fate and transport of nitrogen fertilizers. Steady-state estimates of water and NO3-N fluxes to groundwater were found to vary spatially in the ranges of 90-330 mm yr- 1 and 50-220 kg ha- 1 yr- 1, respectively. Calibration of transient models to two selected vadose-zone profiles required limiting the concentration of NO3-N in the solution that is taken up by the roots to 30 mg L- 1. Results of an independent lysimeter experiment showed a similar nitrogen-uptake regime. Simulations of past conditions revealed a significant correlation between NO3-N flux to groundwater and the previous year's precipitation. Simulations of different nitrogen-application rates showed that using half of the nitrogen fertilizer added to the irrigation water by farmers would reduce average NO3-N flux to groundwater by 70%, decrease root nitrogen uptake by 20% and reduce the average pore water NO3-N concentration in the deep vadose zone to below the Israeli drinking water standard; hence this rate of nitrogen application was found to be agro-hydrologically sustainable. Beyond the investigation of nitrate fluxes to groundwater under citrus orchards and the interesting case-study aspects, this work demonstrates a methodology that enables skillful decisions concerning joint sustainability of both the water resource and agricultural production in a common environmental setting.

  20. NASA 3D Models: Global Hawk

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The ability of the Global Hawk air vehicle to autonomously fly long distances and remain aloft for extended periods of time means that measuring, monitoring, and...

  1. Modeling of reservoir operation in UNH global hydrological model

    Shiklomanov, Alexander; Prusevich, Alexander; Frolking, Steve; Glidden, Stanley; Lammers, Richard; Wisser, Dominik

    2015-04-01

    Climate is changing and river flow is an integrated characteristic reflecting numerous environmental processes and their changes aggregated over large areas. Anthropogenic impacts on the river flow, however, can significantly exceed the changes associated with climate variability. Besides of irrigation, reservoirs and dams are one of major anthropogenic factor affecting streamflow. They distort hydrological regime of many rivers by trapping of freshwater runoff, modifying timing of river discharge and increasing the evaporation rate. Thus, reservoirs is an integral part of the global hydrological system and their impacts on rivers have to be taken into account for better quantification and understanding of hydrological changes. We developed a new technique, which was incorporated into WBM-TrANS model (Water Balance Model-Transport from Anthropogenic and Natural Systems) to simulate river routing through large reservoirs and natural lakes based on information available from freely accessible databases such as GRanD (the Global Reservoir and Dam database) or NID (National Inventory of Dams for US). Different formulations were applied for unregulated spillway dams and lakes, and for 4 types of regulated reservoirs, which were subdivided based on main purpose including generic (multipurpose), hydropower generation, irrigation and water supply, and flood control. We also incorporated rules for reservoir fill up and draining at the times of construction and decommission based on available data. The model were tested for many reservoirs of different size and types located in various climatic conditions using several gridded meteorological data sets as model input and observed daily and monthly discharge data from GRDC (Global Runoff Data Center), USGS Water Data (US Geological Survey), and UNH archives. The best results with Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient in the range of 0.5-0.9 were obtained for temperate zone of Northern Hemisphere where most of large

  2. Architecture design in global and model-centric software development

    Heijstek, Werner

    2012-01-01

    This doctoral dissertation describes a series of empirical investigations into representation, dissemination and coordination of software architecture design in the context of global software development. A particular focus is placed on model-centric and model-driven software development.

  3. Global modelling of secondary organic aerosol in the troposphere: a sensitivity analysis

    K. Tsigaridis

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available A global 3-dimensional chemistry/transport model able to describe O3, NOx, Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC, sulphur and NH3 chemistry has been extended to simulate the temporal and spatial distribution of primary and secondary carbonaceous aerosols in the troposphere focusing on Secondary Organic Aerosol (SOA formation. A number of global simulations have been performed to determine a possible range of annual global SOA production and investigate uncertainties associated with the model results. The studied uncertainties in the SOA budget have been evaluated to be in decreasing importance: the potentially irreversible sticking of the semi-volatile compounds on aerosols, the enthalpy of vaporization of these compounds, the partitioning of SOA on non-carbonaceous aerosols, the conversion of aerosols from hydrophobic to hydrophilic, the emissions of primary carbonaceous aerosols, the chemical fate of the first generation products and finally the activity coefficient of the condensable species. The large uncertainties associated with the emissions of VOC and the adopted simplification of chemistry have not been investigated in this study. Although not all sources of uncertainties have been investigated, according to our calculations, the above factors within the experimental range of variations could result to an overall uncertainty of about a factor of 20 in the global SOA budget. The global annual SOA production from biogenic VOC might range from 2.5 to 44.5 Tg of organic matter per year, whereas that from anthropogenic VOC ranges from 0.05 to 2.62 Tg of organic matter per year. These estimates can be considered as a lower limit, since partitioning on coarse particles like nitrate, dust or sea-salt, together with the partitioning and the dissociation of the semi-volatile products in aerosol water has been neglected. Comparison of model results to observations, where available, shows a better agreement for the upper budget estimates than for the

  4. Iodine's impact on tropospheric oxidants: a global model study in GEOS-Chem

    T. Sherwen

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available We present a global simulation of tropospheric iodine chemistry within the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model. This includes organic and inorganic iodine sources, standard gas-phase iodine chemistry, and simplified higher iodine oxide (I2OX, X = 2, 3, 4 chemistry, photolysis, deposition, and parametrized heterogeneous reactions. In comparisons with recent iodine oxide (IO observations, the simulation shows an average bias of  ∼ +90 % with available surface observations in the marine boundary layer (outside of polar regions, and of  ∼ +73 % within the free troposphere (350 hPa  <  p  <  900 hPa over the eastern Pacific. Iodine emissions (3.8 Tg yr−1 are overwhelmingly dominated by the inorganic ocean source, with 76 % of this emission from hypoiodous acid (HOI. HOI is also found to be the dominant iodine species in terms of global tropospheric IY burden (contributing up to 70 %. The iodine chemistry leads to a significant global tropospheric O3 burden decrease (9.0 % compared to standard GEOS-Chem (v9-2. The iodine-driven OX loss rate1 (748 Tg OX yr−1 is due to photolysis of HOI (78 %, photolysis of OIO (21 %, and reaction between IO and BrO (1 %. Increases in global mean OH concentrations (1.8 % by increased conversion of hydroperoxy radicals exceeds the decrease in OH primary production from the reduced O3 concentration. We perform sensitivity studies on a range of parameters and conclude that the simulation is sensitive to choices in parametrization of heterogeneous uptake, ocean surface iodide, and I2OX (X = 2, 3, 4 photolysis. The new iodine chemistry combines with previously implemented bromine chemistry to yield a total bromine- and iodine-driven tropospheric O3 burden decrease of 14.4 % compared to a simulation without iodine and bromine chemistry in the model, and a small increase in OH (1.8 %. This is a significant impact and so halogen chemistry needs to be

  5. Modeling the Global Workplace Using Emerging Technologies

    Dorazio, Patricia; Hickok, Corey

    2008-01-01

    The Fall 2006 term of COM495, Senior Practicum in Communication, offered communication and information design students the privilege of taking part in a transatlantic intercultural virtual project. To emulate real world experience in today's global workplace, these students researched and completed a business communication project with German…

  6. Modelling global container freight transport demand

    Tavasszy, L.A.; Ivanova, O.; Halim, R.A.

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this chapter is to discuss methods and techniques for a quantitative and descriptive analysis of future container transport demand at a global level. Information on future container transport flows is useful for various purposes. It is instrumental for the assessment of returns of

  7. Nitrates of rare earths

    Komissarova, L.N.; Pushkina, L.Ya.

    1984-01-01

    The systematization of experimental data with account of the last achievements in the field of studying the RE nitrate properties is realized. The methods of production, solubility in aqueous solutions structure, thermodynamic characteristics and thermal stability of nitrate hydrates, RE anhydrous and basic nitrates are considered. The data on RE nirtrate complexing in aqueous solutions are given. Binary nitrates, nitrate solvates and RE nitrate adducts with organic compounds are described. The use of RE nitrates in the course of RE production, in the processes of separation and fine cleaning of RE preparations is considered

  8. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission driven Global Climate Models

    Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D.

    2012-09-01

    We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission driven rather than concentration driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a Global Climate Model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration driven simulations (with 10-90 percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario up to 3.9 K for the high end business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 degrees (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration driven experiments) on the timescale that different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration pathways used to drive GCM ensembles lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legecy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in concentration driven projections. Our ensemble of emission driven simulations span the global temperature response of other multi-model frameworks except at the low end, where combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to responses outside our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon

  9. Multi-Scale Modelling of the Gamma Radiolysis of Nitrate Solutions

    Horne, Gregory; Donoclift, Thomas; Sims, Howard E.; M. Orr, Robin; Pimblott, Simon

    2016-01-01

    A multi-scale modelling approach has been developed for the extended timescale long-term radiolysis of aqueous systems. The approach uses a combination of stochastic track structure and track chemistry as well as deterministic homogeneous chemistry techniques and involves four key stages; radiation track structure simulation, the subsequent physicochemical processes, nonhomogeneous diffusion-reaction kinetic evolution, and homogeneous bulk chemistry modelling. The first three components model...

  10. A simple model of the batch electrochemical reduction of nitrate/nitrite waste

    Wingard, D.A.; Weidner, J.W.; Van Zee, J.W.

    1994-01-01

    A model of a divided parallel plate electrochemical cell operated in a batch mode for the destruction of NO 3 - /NO 2 - in alkaline waste streams is presented. The model uses boundary layer approximations at each electrode and at the separator to minimize computation time. Five competing electrochemical reactions are included at the cathode. The model uses either an explicit Runge-Kutta routine with empirically determined current efficiencies or an implicit stepping routine for each electrode if the current efficiencies are to be predicted. Tim dependent changes of the concentration, temperature, and cell voltage are predicted for constant current operation. Model predictions are compared with experimental data

  11. USING GEM - GLOBAL ECONOMIC MODEL IN ACHIEVING A GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECAST

    Camelia Madalina Orac

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The global economic development model has proved to be insufficiently reliable under the new economic crisis. As a result, the entire theoretical construction about the global economy needs rethinking and reorientation. In this context, it is quite clear that only through effective use of specific techniques and tools of economic-mathematical modeling, statistics, regional analysis and economic forecasting it is possible to obtain an overview of the future economy.

  12. Global spatiotemporal distribution of soil respiration modeled using a global database

    Hashimoto, S.; Carvalhais, N.; Ito, A.; Migliavacca, M.; Nishina, K.; Reichstein, M.

    2015-07-01

    The flux of carbon dioxide from the soil to the atmosphere (soil respiration) is one of the major fluxes in the global carbon cycle. At present, the accumulated field observation data cover a wide range of geographical locations and climate conditions. However, there are still large uncertainties in the magnitude and spatiotemporal variation of global soil respiration. Using a global soil respiration data set, we developed a climate-driven model of soil respiration by modifying and updating Raich's model, and the global spatiotemporal distribution of soil respiration was examined using this model. The model was applied at a spatial resolution of 0.5°and a monthly time step. Soil respiration was divided into the heterotrophic and autotrophic components of respiration using an empirical model. The estimated mean annual global soil respiration was 91 Pg C yr-1 (between 1965 and 2012; Monte Carlo 95 % confidence interval: 87-95 Pg C yr-1) and increased at the rate of 0.09 Pg C yr-2. The contribution of soil respiration from boreal regions to the total increase in global soil respiration was on the same order of magnitude as that of tropical and temperate regions, despite a lower absolute magnitude of soil respiration in boreal regions. The estimated annual global heterotrophic respiration and global autotrophic respiration were 51 and 40 Pg C yr-1, respectively. The global soil respiration responded to the increase in air temperature at the rate of 3.3 Pg C yr-1 °C-1, and Q10 = 1.4. Our study scaled up observed soil respiration values from field measurements to estimate global soil respiration and provide a data-oriented estimate of global soil respiration. The estimates are based on a semi-empirical model parameterized with over one thousand data points. Our analysis indicates that the climate controls on soil respiration may translate into an increasing trend in global soil respiration and our analysis emphasizes the relevance of the soil carbon flux from soil to

  13. New Temperature-based Models for Predicting Global Solar Radiation

    Hassan, Gasser E.; Youssef, M. Elsayed; Mohamed, Zahraa E.; Ali, Mohamed A.; Hanafy, Ahmed A.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • New temperature-based models for estimating solar radiation are investigated. • The models are validated against 20-years measured data of global solar radiation. • The new temperature-based model shows the best performance for coastal sites. • The new temperature-based model is more accurate than the sunshine-based models. • The new model is highly applicable with weather temperature forecast techniques. - Abstract: This study presents new ambient-temperature-based models for estimating global solar radiation as alternatives to the widely used sunshine-based models owing to the unavailability of sunshine data at all locations around the world. Seventeen new temperature-based models are established, validated and compared with other three models proposed in the literature (the Annandale, Allen and Goodin models) to estimate the monthly average daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface. These models are developed using a 20-year measured dataset of global solar radiation for the case study location (Lat. 30°51′N and long. 29°34′E), and then, the general formulae of the newly suggested models are examined for ten different locations around Egypt. Moreover, the local formulae for the models are established and validated for two coastal locations where the general formulae give inaccurate predictions. Mostly common statistical errors are utilized to evaluate the performance of these models and identify the most accurate model. The obtained results show that the local formula for the most accurate new model provides good predictions for global solar radiation at different locations, especially at coastal sites. Moreover, the local and general formulas of the most accurate temperature-based model also perform better than the two most accurate sunshine-based models from the literature. The quick and accurate estimations of the global solar radiation using this approach can be employed in the design and evaluation of performance for

  14. Quantifying long-term responses of crop yield and nitrate leaching in an intensive farmland using agro-eco-environmental model.

    Sun, Mei; Huo, Zailin; Zheng, Yanxia; Dai, Xiaoqin; Feng, Shaoyuan; Mao, Xiaomin

    2018-02-01

    Quantitatively ascertaining and analyzing long-term responses of crop yield and nitrate leaching on varying irrigation and fertilization treatments are focal points for guaranteeing crop yield and reducing nitrogen loss. The calibrated agricultural-hydrological RZWQM2 model was used to explore the long-term (2003-2013) transport processes of water and nitrogen and the nitrate leaching amount into groundwater in summer maize and winter wheat rotation field in typical intensive plant area in the North China Plain, Daxing district of Beijing. Simulation results showed that application rates of irrigation and nitrogen fertilizer have couple effects on crop yields and nitrogen leaching of root zone. When both the irrigation and fertilizer for summer maize and winter wheat were 400mm and 400kgNha -1 , respectively, nitrate leaching into groundwater accounted for 47.9% of application amount of nitrogen fertilizer. When application amount of irrigation is 200mm and fertilization is 200kgNha -1 , NUPE (nitrogen uptake efficiency), NUE (nitrogen use efficiency), NPFP (nitrogen partial factor productivity), and W pi (irrigation water productive efficiency) were in general higher than that under other irrigation and fertilization condition (irrigation from 104-400mm, fertilizer 104-400kgNha -1 ). Irrigation bigger than 200mm could shorten the response time of nitrate leaching in deeper soil layer in different irrigation treatment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Evaluation of global climate models for Indian monsoon climatology

    Kodra, Evan; Ganguly, Auroop R; Ghosh, Subimal

    2012-01-01

    The viability of global climate models for forecasting the Indian monsoon is explored. Evaluation and intercomparison of model skills are employed to assess the reliability of individual models and to guide model selection strategies. Two dominant and unique patterns of Indian monsoon climatology are trends in maximum temperature and periodicity in total rainfall observed after 30 yr averaging over India. An examination of seven models and their ensembles reveals that no single model or model selection strategy outperforms the rest. The single-best model for the periodicity of Indian monsoon rainfall is the only model that captures a low-frequency natural climate oscillator thought to dictate the periodicity. The trend in maximum temperature, which most models are thought to handle relatively better, is best captured through a multimodel average compared to individual models. The results suggest a need to carefully evaluate individual models and model combinations, in addition to physical drivers where possible, for regional projections from global climate models. (letter)

  16. Modeling the current and future roles of particulate organic nitrates in the southeastern US

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Links point to the NOAA data archive of observational data and the supplement of the article which this data supports. No model data was uploaded due to its size....

  17. A Simple Model of Global Aerosol Indirect Effects

    Ghan, Steven J.; Smith, Steven J.; Wang, Minghuai; Zhang, Kai; Pringle, Kirsty; Carslaw, Kenneth; Pierce, Jeffrey; Bauer, Susanne; Adams, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Most estimates of the global mean indirect effect of anthropogenic aerosol on the Earth's energy balance are from simulations by global models of the aerosol lifecycle coupled with global models of clouds and the hydrologic cycle. Extremely simple models have been developed for integrated assessment models, but lack the flexibility to distinguish between primary and secondary sources of aerosol. Here a simple but more physically based model expresses the aerosol indirect effect (AIE) using analytic representations of cloud and aerosol distributions and processes. Although the simple model is able to produce estimates of AIEs that are comparable to those from some global aerosol models using the same global mean aerosol properties, the estimates by the simple model are sensitive to preindustrial cloud condensation nuclei concentration, preindustrial accumulation mode radius, width of the accumulation mode, size of primary particles, cloud thickness, primary and secondary anthropogenic emissions, the fraction of the secondary anthropogenic emissions that accumulates on the coarse mode, the fraction of the secondary mass that forms new particles, and the sensitivity of liquid water path to droplet number concentration. Estimates of present-day AIEs as low as 5 W/sq m and as high as 0.3 W/sq m are obtained for plausible sets of parameter values. Estimates are surprisingly linear in emissions. The estimates depend on parameter values in ways that are consistent with results from detailed global aerosol-climate simulation models, which adds to understanding of the dependence on AIE uncertainty on uncertainty in parameter values.

  18. Global qualitative analysis of a quartic ecological model

    Broer, Hendrik; Gaiko, Valery A.

    2010-01-01

    in this paper we complete the global qualitative analysis of a quartic ecological model. In particular, studying global bifurcations of singular points and limit cycles, we prove that the corresponding dynamical system has at most two limit cycles. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Existence of global attractor for the Trojan Y Chromosome model

    Xiaopeng Zhao

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with the long time behavior of solution for the equation derived by the Trojan Y Chromosome (TYC model with spatial spread. Based on the regularity estimates for the semigroups and the classical existence theorem of global attractors, we prove that this equations possesses a global attractor in $H^k(\\Omega^4$ $(k\\geq 0$ space.

  20. Models for prediction of global solar radiation on horizontal surface ...

    The estimation of global solar radiation continues to play a fundamental role in solar engineering systems and applications. This paper compares various models for estimating the average monthly global solar radiation on horizontal surface for Akure, Nigeria, using solar radiation and sunshine duration data covering years ...

  1. OILMAP: A global approach to spill modeling

    Spaulding, M.L.; Howlett, E.; Anderson, E.; Jayko, K.

    1992-01-01

    OILMAP is an oil spill model system suitable for use in both rapid response mode and long-range contingency planning. It was developed for a personal computer and employs full-color graphics to enter data, set up spill scenarios, and view model predictions. The major components of OILMAP include environmental data entry and viewing capabilities, the oil spill models, and model prediction display capabilities. Graphic routines are provided for entering wind data, currents, and any type of geographically referenced data. Several modes of the spill model are available. The surface trajectory mode is intended for quick spill response. The weathering model includes the spreading, evaporation, entrainment, emulsification, and shoreline interaction of oil. The stochastic and receptor models simulate a large number of trajectories from a single site for generating probability statistics. Each model and the algorithms they use are described. Several additional capabilities are planned for OILMAP, including simulation of tactical spill response and subsurface oil transport. 8 refs

  2. Field scale heterogeneity of redox conditions in till-upscaling to a catchment nitrate model

    Hansen, J.R.; Erntsen, V.; Refsgaard, J.C.

    2008-01-01

    Point scale studies in different settings of glacial geology show a large local variation of redox conditions. There is a need to develop an upscaling methodology for catchment scale models. This paper describes a study of field-scale heterogeneity of redox-interfaces in a till aquitard within an...

  3. Modeling the impact of nitrogen fertilizer application and tile drain configuration on nitrate leaching using SWAT

    Recently, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was revised to improve the partitioning of runoff and tile drainage in poorly drained soils by modifying the algorithm for computing the soil moisture retention parameter. In this study, the revised SWAT model was used to evaluate the sensitivity a...

  4. Modeling the Effects of Onsite Wastewater Treatment Systems on Nitrate Loads Using SWAT in an Urban Watershed of Metropolitan Atlanta.

    Hoghooghi, Nahal; Radcliffe, David E; Habteselassie, Mussie Y; Jeong, Jaehak

    2017-05-01

    Onsite wastewater treatment systems (OWTSs) can be a source of nitrogen (N) pollution in both surface and ground waters. In metropolitan Atlanta, GA, >26% of homes are on OWTSs. In a previous article, we used the Soil Water Assessment Tool to model the effect of OWTSs on stream flow in the Big Haynes Creek Watershed in metropolitan Atlanta. The objective of this study was to estimate the effect of OWTSs, including failing systems, on nitrate as N (NO-N) load in the same watershed. Big Haynes Creek has a drainage area of 44 km with mainly urban land use (67%), and most of the homes use OWTSs. A USGS gauge station where stream flow was measured daily and NO-N concentrations were measured monthly was used as the outlet. The model was simulated for 12 yr. Overall, the model showed satisfactory daily stream flow and NO-N loads with Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients of 0.62 and 0.58 for the calibration period and 0.67 and 0.33 for the validation period at the outlet of the Big Haynes Watershed. Onsite wastewater treatment systems caused an average increase in NO-N load of 23% at the watershed scale and 29% at the outlet of a subbasin with the highest density of OWTSs. Failing OWTSs were estimated to be 1% of the total systems and did not have a large impact on stream flow or NO-N load. The NO-N load was 74% of the total N load in the watershed, indicating the important effect of OWTSs on stream loads in this urban watershed. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

  5. Endothelial relaxation mechanisms and nitrative stress are partly restored by Vitamin D3 therapy in a rat model of polycystic ovary syndrome.

    Masszi, Gabriella; Benko, Rita; Csibi, Noemi; Horvath, Eszter M; Tokes, Anna-Maria; Novak, Agnes; Beres, Nora Judit; Tarszabo, Robert; Buday, Anna; Repas, Csaba; Bekesi, Gabor; Patocs, Attila; Nadasy, Gyorgy L; Hamar, Peter; Benyo, Zoltan; Varbiro, Szabolcs

    2013-08-06

    In polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS), metabolic and cardiovascular dysfunction is related to hyperandrogenic status and insulin resistance, however, Vitamin D3 has a beneficial effect partly due to its anti-oxidant capacity. Nitrative stress is a major factor in the development of cardiovascular dysfunction and insulin resistance in various diseases. Our aim was to determine the effects of vitamin D3 in a rat model of PCOS, particularly the pathogenic role of nitrative stress. Female Wistar rats weighing 100-140g were administered vehicle (C), dihydrotestosterone (DHT) or dihydrotestosterone plus vitamin D3 (DHT+D) (n=10 per group). On the 10th week, acetylcholine (Ach) induced relaxation ability of the isolated thoracic aorta rings was determined. In order to examine the possible role of endothelial nitric oxide synthase (eNOS) and cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) pathways in the impaired endothelial function, immunohistochemical labeling of aortas with anti-eNOS and anti-COX-2 antibodies was performed. Leukocyte smears, aorta and ovary tissue sections were also immunostained with anti-nitrotyrosine antibody to determine nitrative stress. Relaxation ability of aorta was reduced in group DHT, and vitamin D3 partly restored Ach induced relaxation. eNOS labeling was significantly lower in DHT rats compared to the other two groups, however COX-2 staining showed an increment. Nitrative stress showed a significant increase in response to dihydrotestosterone, while vitamin D3 treatment, in case of the ovaries, was able to reverse this effect. Nitrative stress may play a role in the pathogenesis of PCOS and in the development of the therapeutic effect of vitamin D3. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Source oriented modeling of the nitrat pollution of surface waters - application of the immission method for the reporting according to the EC nitrat guideline; Verursacherbezogene Modellierung der Nitratbelastung der Oberflaechengewaesser - Anwendung des Immissionsverfahrens zur Berichterstattung zur EU-Nitratrichtlinie

    Behrendt, H.; Opitz, D. [Institut fuer Gewaesseroekologie und Binnenfischerei im Forschungsverbund Berlin e.V. (Germany); Bach, M. [Gesellschaft fuer Boden- und Gewaesserschutz e.V. (Germany); Pagenkopf, W.G. [Geodaten Integration und Analyse, Berlin (Germany)

    2000-09-20

    The observation of 152 monitoring stations of the German countries does not exceed the 50 mg/l target for nitrate. But a good water quality in relation to nitrate can be observed at only 14% of these monitoring stations. If variations in the nitrate concentrations caused by variation of runoff are neglected unique trends of the nitrate pollution from agriculture can not be detected since the mid of 80's. More detailed analysis were carried out for 15 EU monitoring stations. The average winter concentration of nitrate is for the half of these stations constant and a low reduction can be observed for the other half. A similar result shows the average winter concentrations at low flow conditions. The separation of the nitrogen sources into diffuse and point sources using the immission approach shows for both a small decrease for the period 1996-1999 in comparison with the previous period. In contrast to the situation in the mid of 80's the discharges from point sources are decreased and contribute to the total load only in a range of 9-24% in the different river basins. The immission method shows similar results as the emission model. In the mid of the nineties about 67% of the N-inputs into the surface waters of Germany are caused by agricultural activities. The dominant pathway was groundwater with about 48%. The total emissions were reduced by 24% mainly caused by point source reduction. The nitrogen surplus (area related balance) in the agricultural soils were estimated for Germany and for the German countries to show the causes of the nitrogen problem in agriculture. Since 1990 the N-surpluses are reduced and are at present in a range between 70 and 80 kg/ha agricultural area. For the new German countries the N-surplus showed a dramatic decrease in 1990/91 followed by a continuous increase. Contrary the N-surplus in the old German countries is characterised by a slow decrease over the whole time period since 1990. The influence of the order for the

  7. Global Atmosphere Watch Workshop on Measurement-Model ...

    The World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) Programme coordinates high-quality observations of atmospheric composition from global to local scales with the aim to drive high-quality and high-impact science while co-producing a new generation of products and services. In line with this vision, GAW’s Scientific Advisory Group for Total Atmospheric Deposition (SAG-TAD) has a mandate to produce global maps of wet, dry and total atmospheric deposition for important atmospheric chemicals to enable research into biogeochemical cycles and assessments of ecosystem and human health effects. The most suitable scientific approach for this activity is the emerging technique of measurement-model fusion for total atmospheric deposition. This technique requires global-scale measurements of atmospheric trace gases, particles, precipitation composition and precipitation depth, as well as predictions of the same from global/regional chemical transport models. The fusion of measurement and model results requires data assimilation and mapping techniques. The objective of the GAW Workshop on Measurement-Model Fusion for Global Total Atmospheric Deposition (MMF-GTAD), an initiative of the SAG-TAD, was to review the state-of-the-science and explore the feasibility and methodology of producing, on a routine retrospective basis, global maps of atmospheric gas and aerosol concentrations as well as wet, dry and total deposition via measurement-model

  8. distributed parameter model of spiral-wound sepralator for treatment of uranyl nitrate effluents

    El-Bialy, S.H; Elsherbiny, A.E.

    2004-01-01

    in this paper, mathematical formulation of spiral-wound sepralator was derived and applied for the treatment of effluent stream which is produced during nuclear fuel processing stage. the concentration of the stream has a value up to 200 ppm . cross-flow characteristic of both feed and permeate streams was taken into account and their mutual effects on the values of system variables were investigated. of course, such a flow pattern leads to a heterogeneous system which leads-in turn-to six partial differential equations, beside a set of algebraic equations. those were solved numerically and the results were used to estimate the average values of both permeate flux and percent solute rejection. then, these were compared with both experimental data in addition to the results of lumped parameter model. the study showed that distributed parameter model gives better results than lumped parameter one compared with experimental data

  9. Modeling the Acceleration of Global Surface Temperture

    Jones, B.

    2017-12-01

    A mathematical projection focusing on the changing rate of acceleration of Global Surface Temperatures. Using historical trajectory and informed expert near-term prediction, it is possible to extend this further forward drawing a reference arc of acceleration. Presented here is an example of this technique based on data found in the Summary of Findings of A New Estimate of the Average Earth Surface Land Temperature Spanning 1753 to 2011 and that same team's stated prediction to 2050. With this, we can project a curve showing future acceleration: Decade (midpoint) Change in Global Land Temp Degrees C Known Slope Projected Trend 1755 0.000 1955 0.600 0.0030 2005 1.500 0.0051 2045 3.000 0.0375 2095 5.485 0.0497 2145 8.895 0.0682 2195 13.488 0.0919 Observations: Slopes are getting steeper and doing so faster in an "acceleration of the acceleration" or an "arc of acceleration". This is consistent with the non-linear accelerating feedback loops of global warming. Such projected temperatures threaten human civilization and human life. This `thumbnail' projection is consistent with the other long term predictions based on anthropogenic greenhouse gases. This projection is low when compared to those whose forecasts include greenhouse gases released from thawing permafrost and clathrate hydrates. A reference line: This curve should be considered a point of reference. In the near term and absent significant drawdown of greenhouse gases, my "bet" for this AGU session is that future temperatures will generally be above this reference curve. For example, the decade ending 2020 - more than 1.9C and the decade ending 2030 - more than 2.3C - again measured from the 1750 start point. *Caveat: The long term curve and prediction assumes that mankind does not move quickly away from high cost fossil fuels and does not invent, mobilize and take actions drawing down greenhouse gases. Those seeking a comprehensive action plan are directed to drawdown.org

  10. Evidence for Legacy Contamination of Nitrate in Groundwater of North Carolina Using Monitoring and Private Well Data Models

    Messier, K. P.; Kane, E.; Bolich, R.; Serre, M. L.

    2014-12-01

    Nitrate (NO3-) is a widespread contaminant of groundwater and surface water across the United States that has deleterious effects to human and ecological health. Legacy contamination, or past releases of NO3-, is thought to be impacting current groundwater and surface water of North Carolina. This study develops a model for predicting point-level groundwater NO3- at a state scale for monitoring wells and private wells of North Carolina. A land use regression (LUR) model selection procedure known as constrained forward nonlinear regression and hyperparameter optimization (CFN-RHO) is developed for determining nonlinear model explanatory variables when they are known to be correlated. Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) is then used to integrate the LUR model to create a LUR-BME model of spatial/temporal varying groundwater NO3- concentrations. LUR-BME results in a leave-one-out cross-validation r2 of 0.74 and 0.33 for monitoring and private wells, effectively predicting within spatial covariance ranges. The major finding regarding legacy sources NO3- in this study is that the LUR-BME models show the geographical extent of low-level contamination of deeper drinking-water aquifers is beyond that of the shallower monitoring well. Groundwater NO3- in monitoring wells is highly variable with many areas predicted above the current Environmental Protection Agency standard of 10 mg/L. Contrarily, the private well results depict widespread, low-level NO3-concentrations. This evidence supports that in addition to downward transport, there is also a significant outward transport of groundwater NO3- in the drinking water aquifer to areas outside the range of sources. Results indicate that the deeper aquifers are potentially acting as a reservoir that is not only deeper, but also covers a larger geographical area, than the reservoir formed by the shallow aquifers. Results are of interest to agencies that regulate surface water and drinking water sources impacted by the effects of

  11. Numerical Simulation of Hydrogen Combustion: Global Reaction Model and Validation

    Zhang, Yun [School of Energy and Power Engineering, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an (China); Department of Mechanical, Aerospace and Nuclear Engineering, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY (United States); Liu, Yinhe, E-mail: yinheliu@mail.xjtu.edu.cn [School of Energy and Power Engineering, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an (China)

    2017-11-20

    Due to the complexity of modeling the combustion process in nuclear power plants, the global mechanisms are preferred for numerical simulation. To quickly perform the highly resolved simulations with limited processing resources of large-scale hydrogen combustion, a method based on thermal theory was developed to obtain kinetic parameters of global reaction mechanism of hydrogen–air combustion in a wide range. The calculated kinetic parameters at lower hydrogen concentration (C{sub hydrogen} < 20%) were validated against the results obtained from experimental measurements in a container and combustion test facility. In addition, the numerical data by the global mechanism (C{sub hydrogen} > 20%) were compared with the results by detailed mechanism. Good agreement between the model prediction and the experimental data was achieved, and the comparison between simulation results by the detailed mechanism and the global reaction mechanism show that the present calculated global mechanism has excellent predictable capabilities for a wide range of hydrogen–air mixtures.

  12. Numerical Simulation of Hydrogen Combustion: Global Reaction Model and Validation

    Zhang, Yun; Liu, Yinhe

    2017-01-01

    Due to the complexity of modeling the combustion process in nuclear power plants, the global mechanisms are preferred for numerical simulation. To quickly perform the highly resolved simulations with limited processing resources of large-scale hydrogen combustion, a method based on thermal theory was developed to obtain kinetic parameters of global reaction mechanism of hydrogen–air combustion in a wide range. The calculated kinetic parameters at lower hydrogen concentration (C hydrogen < 20%) were validated against the results obtained from experimental measurements in a container and combustion test facility. In addition, the numerical data by the global mechanism (C hydrogen > 20%) were compared with the results by detailed mechanism. Good agreement between the model prediction and the experimental data was achieved, and the comparison between simulation results by the detailed mechanism and the global reaction mechanism show that the present calculated global mechanism has excellent predictable capabilities for a wide range of hydrogen–air mixtures.

  13. Technology Learning Ratios in Global Energy Models; Ratios de Aprendizaje Tecnologico en Modelos Energeticos Globales

    Varela, M.

    2001-07-01

    The process of introduction of a new technology supposes that while its production and utilisation increases, also its operation improves and its investment costs and production decreases. The accumulation of experience and learning of a new technology increase in parallel with the increase of its market share. This process is represented by the technological learning curves and the energy sector is not detached from this process of substitution of old technologies by new ones. The present paper carries out a brief revision of the main energy models that include the technology dynamics (learning). The energy scenarios, developed by global energy models, assume that the characteristics of the technologies are variables with time. But this tend is incorporated in a exogenous way in these energy models, that is to say, it is only a time function. This practice is applied to the cost indicators of the technology such as the specific investment costs or to the efficiency of the energy technologies. In the last years, the new concept of endogenous technological learning has been integrated within these global energy models. This paper examines the concept of technological learning in global energy models. It also analyses the technological dynamics of the energy systems including the endogenous modelling of the process of technological progress. Finally, it makes a comparison of several of the most used global energy models (MARKAL, MESSAGE and ERIS) and, more concretely, about the use these models make of the concept of technological learning. (Author) 17 refs.

  14. Nitrate source apportionment using a combined dual isotope, chemical and bacterial property, and Bayesian model approach in river systems

    Xia, Yongqiu; Li, Yuefei; Zhang, Xinyu; Yan, Xiaoyuan

    2017-01-01

    Nitrate (NO3-) pollution is a serious problem worldwide, particularly in countries with intensive agricultural and population activities. Previous studies have used δ15N-NO3- and δ18O-NO3- to determine the NO3- sources in rivers. However, this approach is subject to substantial uncertainties and limitations because of the numerous NO3- sources, the wide isotopic ranges, and the existing isotopic fractionations. In this study, we outline a combined procedure for improving the determination of NO3- sources in a paddy agriculture-urban gradient watershed in eastern China. First, the main sources of NO3- in the Qinhuai River were examined by the dual-isotope biplot approach, in which we narrowed the isotope ranges using site-specific isotopic results. Next, the bacterial groups and chemical properties of the river water were analyzed to verify these sources. Finally, we introduced a Bayesian model to apportion the spatiotemporal variations of the NO3- sources. Denitrification was first incorporated into the Bayesian model because denitrification plays an important role in the nitrogen pathway. The results showed that fertilizer contributed large amounts of NO3- to the surface water in traditional agricultural regions, whereas manure effluents were the dominant NO3- source in intensified agricultural regions, especially during the wet seasons. Sewage effluents were important in all three land uses and exhibited great differences between the dry season and the wet season. This combined analysis quantitatively delineates the proportion of NO3- sources from paddy agriculture to urban river water for both dry and wet seasons and incorporates isotopic fractionation and uncertainties in the source compositions.

  15. Global Nonlinear Model Identification with Multivariate Splines

    De Visser, C.C.

    2011-01-01

    At present, model based control systems play an essential role in many aspects of modern society. Application areas of model based control systems range from food processing to medical imaging, and from process control in oil refineries to the flight control systems of modern aircraft. Central to a

  16. Fourier series models through transformation | Omekara | Global ...

    As a result, the square transformation which outperforms the others is adopted. Consequently, each of the multiplicative and additive FSA models fitted to the transformed data are then subjected to a test for white noise based on spectral analysis. The result of this test shows that only the multiplicative model is adequate.

  17. Modeling global distribution of agricultural insecticides in surface waters

    Ippolito, Alessio; Kattwinkel, Mira; Rasmussen, Jes J.; Schäfer, Ralf B.; Fornaroli, Riccardo; Liess, Matthias

    2015-01-01

    Agricultural insecticides constitute a major driver of animal biodiversity loss in freshwater ecosystems. However, the global extent of their effects and the spatial extent of exposure remain largely unknown. We applied a spatially explicit model to estimate the potential for agricultural insecticide runoff into streams. Water bodies within 40% of the global land surface were at risk of insecticide runoff. We separated the influence of natural factors and variables under human control determining insecticide runoff. In the northern hemisphere, insecticide runoff presented a latitudinal gradient mainly driven by insecticide application rate; in the southern hemisphere, a combination of daily rainfall intensity, terrain slope, agricultural intensity and insecticide application rate determined the process. The model predicted the upper limit of observed insecticide exposure measured in water bodies (n = 82) in five different countries reasonably well. The study provides a global map of hotspots for insecticide contamination guiding future freshwater management and conservation efforts. - Highlights: • First global map on insecticide runoff through modelling. • Model predicts upper limit of insecticide exposure when compared to field data. • Water bodies in 40% of global land surface may be at risk of adverse effects. • Insecticide application rate, terrain slope and rainfall main drivers of exposure. - We provide the first global map on insecticide runoff to surface water predicting that water bodies in 40% of global land surface may be at risk of adverse effects

  18. Usefulness and limitations of global flood risk models

    Ward, Philip; Jongman, Brenden; Salamon, Peter; Simpson, Alanna; Bates, Paul; De Groeve, Tom; Muis, Sanne; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; Rudari, Roberto; Mark, Trigg; Winsemius, Hessel

    2016-04-01

    Global flood risk models are now a reality. Initially, their development was driven by a demand from users for first-order global assessments to identify risk hotspots. Relentless upward trends in flood damage over the last decade have enhanced interest in such assessments. The adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage Associated with Climate Change Impacts have made these efforts even more essential. As a result, global flood risk models are being used more and more in practice, by an increasingly large number of practitioners and decision-makers. However, they clearly have their limits compared to local models. To address these issues, a team of scientists and practitioners recently came together at the Global Flood Partnership meeting to critically assess the question 'What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?'. The results of this dialogue (Ward et al., 2013) will be presented, opening a discussion on similar broader initiatives at the science-policy interface in other natural hazards. In this contribution, examples are provided of successful applications of global flood risk models in practice (for example together with the World Bank, Red Cross, and UNISDR), and limitations and gaps between user 'wish-lists' and model capabilities are discussed. Finally, a research agenda is presented for addressing these limitations and reducing the gaps. Ward et al., 2015. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2742

  19. Globalizing High-Tech Business Models

    Turcan, Romeo V.

    2012-01-01

    resources and behavioral patterns. Two sources could be identified that effect these tensions, namely strategic experimentation and business model experimentation. For example, entrepreneurs are trying to ease the tensions in the organizational gestalt as a result of a change in the business model...... and growth path. To internationalize, international new ventures have to develop a product-led business model as services do not travel. Opting to attract venture capital, entrepreneurs are to deal with dyadic tensions that are the result of differences in entrepreneurs’ and VCs’ goals and measures...

  20. Optimization of DRASTIC method by artificial neural network, nitrate vulnerability index, and composite DRASTIC models to assess groundwater vulnerability for unconfined aquifer of Shiraz Plain, Iran.

    Baghapour, Mohammad Ali; Fadaei Nobandegani, Amir; Talebbeydokhti, Nasser; Bagherzadeh, Somayeh; Nadiri, Ata Allah; Gharekhani, Maryam; Chitsazan, Nima

    2016-01-01

    Extensive human activities and unplanned land uses have put groundwater resources of Shiraz plain at a high risk of nitrate pollution, causing several environmental and human health issues. To address these issues, water resources managers utilize groundwater vulnerability assessment and determination of protection. This study aimed to prepare the vulnerability maps of Shiraz aquifer by using Composite DRASTIC index, Nitrate Vulnerability index, and artificial neural network and also to compare their efficiency. The parameters of the indexes that were employed in this study are: depth to water table, net recharge, aquifer media, soil media, topography, impact of the vadose zone, hydraulic conductivity, and land use. These parameters were rated, weighted, and integrated using GIS, and then, used to develop the risk maps of Shiraz aquifer. The results indicated that the southeastern part of the aquifer was at the highest potential risk. Given the distribution of groundwater nitrate concentrations from the wells in the underlying aquifer, the artificial neural network model offered greater accuracy compared to the other two indexes. The study concluded that the artificial neural network model is an effective model to improve the DRASTIC index and provides a confident estimate of the pollution risk. As intensive agricultural activities are the dominant land use and water table is shallow in the vulnerable zones, optimized irrigation techniques and a lower rate of fertilizers are suggested. The findings of our study could be used as a scientific basis in future for sustainable groundwater management in Shiraz plain.

  1. Organic nitrate and secondary organic aerosol yield from NO3 oxidation of β-pinene evaluated using a gas-phase kinetics/aerosol partitioning model

    H.-P. Dorn

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available The yields of organic nitrates and of secondary organic aerosol (SOA particle formation were measured for the reaction NO3+β-pinene under dry and humid conditions in the atmosphere simulation chamber SAPHIR at Research Center Jülich. These experiments were conducted at low concentrations of NO3 (NO3+N2O5pvap~5×10−6 Torr (6.67×10−4 Pa, which constrains speculation about the oxidation mechanism and chemical identity of the organic nitrate. Once formed the SOA in this system continues to evolve, resulting in measurable aerosol volume decrease with time. The observations of high aerosol yield from NOx-dependent oxidation of monoterpenes provide an example of a significant anthropogenic source of SOA from biogenic hydrocarbon precursors. Estimates of the NO3+β-pinene SOA source strength for California and the globe indicate that NO3 reactions with monoterpenes are likely an important source (0.5–8% of the global total of organic aerosol on regional and global scales.

  2. The status and challenge of global fire modelling

    Hantson, Stijn; Arneth, Almut; Harrison, Sandy P.; Kelley, Douglas I.; Prentice, I. Colin; Rabin, Sam S.; Archibald, Sally; Mouillot, Florent; Arnold, Steve R.; Artaxo, Paulo; Bachelet, Dominique; Ciais, Philippe; Forrest, Matthew; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hickler, Thomas; Kaplan, Jed O.; Kloster, Silvia; Knorr, Wolfgang; Lasslop, Gitta; Li, Fang; Mangeon, Stephane; Melton, Joe R.; Meyn, Andrea; Sitch, Stephen; Spessa, Allan; van der Werf, Guido R.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Yue, Chao

    2016-06-01

    Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, using either well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. While a large variety of models exist today, it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central question underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), an international initiative to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we review how fires have been represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and give an overview of the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling. We indicate which challenges still remain in global fire modelling and stress the need for a comprehensive model evaluation and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.

  3. Validation of a Global Hydrodynamic Flood Inundation Model

    Bates, P. D.; Smith, A.; Sampson, C. C.; Alfieri, L.; Neal, J. C.

    2014-12-01

    In this work we present first validation results for a hyper-resolution global flood inundation model. We use a true hydrodynamic model (LISFLOOD-FP) to simulate flood inundation at 1km resolution globally and then use downscaling algorithms to determine flood extent and depth at 90m spatial resolution. Terrain data are taken from a custom version of the SRTM data set that has been processed specifically for hydrodynamic modelling. Return periods of flood flows along the entire global river network are determined using: (1) empirical relationships between catchment characteristics and index flood magnitude in different hydroclimatic zones derived from global runoff data; and (2) an index flood growth curve, also empirically derived. Bankful return period flow is then used to set channel width and depth, and flood defence impacts are modelled using empirical relationships between GDP, urbanization and defence standard of protection. The results of these simulations are global flood hazard maps for a number of different return period events from 1 in 5 to 1 in 1000 years. We compare these predictions to flood hazard maps developed by national government agencies in the UK and Germany using similar methods but employing detailed local data, and to observed flood extent at a number of sites including St. Louis, USA and Bangkok in Thailand. Results show that global flood hazard models can have considerable skill given careful treatment to overcome errors in the publicly available data that are used as their input.

  4. Global tropospheric ozone modeling: Quantifying errors due to grid resolution

    Wild, Oliver; Prather, Michael J

    2006-01-01

    Ozone production in global chemical models is dependent on model resolution because ozone chemistry is inherently nonlinear, the timescales for chemical production are short, and precursors are artificially distributed over the spatial scale of the model grid. In this study we examine the sensitivity of ozone, its precursors, and its production to resolution by running a global chemical transport model at four different resolutions between T21 (5.6° × 5.6°) and T106 (1.1° × 1.1°) and by quant...

  5. Leveraging the Global Health Service Partnership Model for Workforce Development in Global Radiation Oncology

    Omoruyi Credit Irabor

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available A major contributor to the disparity in cancer outcome across the globe is the limited health care access in low- and middle-income countries that results from the shortfall in human resources for health (HRH, fomented by the limited training and leadership capacity of low-resource countries. In 2012, Seed Global Health teamed up with the Peace Corps to create the Global Health Service Partnership, an initiative that has introduced a novel model for tackling the HRH crises in developing regions of the world. The Global Health Service Partnership has made global health impacts in leveraging partnerships for HRH development, faculty activities and output, scholarship engagement, adding value to the learning environment, health workforce empowerment, and infrastructure development.

  6. 21 CFR 181.33 - Sodium nitrate and potassium nitrate.

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 3 2010-04-01 2009-04-01 true Sodium nitrate and potassium nitrate. 181.33...-Sanctioned Food Ingredients § 181.33 Sodium nitrate and potassium nitrate. Sodium nitrate and potassium nitrate are subject to prior sanctions issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture for use as sources of...

  7. Quantification of effective plant rooting depth: advancing global hydrological modelling

    Yang, Y.; Donohue, R. J.; McVicar, T.

    2017-12-01

    Plant rooting depth (Zr) is a key parameter in hydrological and biogeochemical models, yet the global spatial distribution of Zr is largely unknown due to the difficulties in its direct measurement. Moreover, Zr observations are usually only representative of a single plant or several plants, which can differ greatly from the effective Zr over a modelling unit (e.g., catchment or grid-box). Here, we provide a global parameterization of an analytical Zr model that balances the marginal carbon cost and benefit of deeper roots, and produce a climatological (i.e., 1982-2010 average) global Zr map. To test the Zr estimates, we apply the estimated Zr in a highly transparent hydrological model (i.e., the Budyko-Choudhury-Porporato (BCP) model) to estimate mean annual actual evapotranspiration (E) across the globe. We then compare the estimated E with both water balance-based E observations at 32 major catchments and satellite grid-box retrievals across the globe. Our results show that the BCP model, when implemented with Zr estimated herein, optimally reproduced the spatial pattern of E at both scales and provides improved model outputs when compared to BCP model results from two already existing global Zr datasets. These results suggest that our Zr estimates can be effectively used in state-of-the-art hydrological models, and potentially biogeochemical models, where the determination of Zr currently largely relies on biome type-based look-up tables.

  8. Radiative heating in global climate models

    Baer, F.; Arsky, N.; Rocque, K. [Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)

    1996-04-01

    LWR algorithms from various GCMs vary significantly from one another for the same clear sky input data. This variability becomes pronounced when clouds are included. We demonstrate this effect by intercomparing the various models` output using observed data including clouds from ARM/CART data taken in Oklahoma.

  9. Global comparison of three greenhouse climate models

    Bavel, van C.H.M.; Takakura, T.; Bot, G.P.A.

    1985-01-01

    Three dynamic simulation models for calculating the greenhouse climate and its energy requirements for both heating and cooling were compared by making detailed computations for each of seven sets of data. The data sets ranged from a cold winter day, requiring heating, to a hot summer day, requiring

  10. Global ocean modeling on the Connection Machine

    Smith, R.D.; Dukowicz, J.K.; Malone, R.C.

    1993-01-01

    The authors have developed a version of the Bryan-Cox-Semtner ocean model (Bryan, 1969; Semtner, 1976; Cox, 1984) for massively parallel computers. Such models are three-dimensional, Eulerian models that use latitude and longitude as the horizontal spherical coordinates and fixed depth levels as the vertical coordinate. The incompressible Navier-Stokes equations, with a turbulent eddy viscosity, and mass continuity equation are solved, subject to the hydrostatic and Boussinesq approximations. The traditional model formulation uses a rigid-lid approximation (vertical velocity = 0 at the ocean surface) to eliminate fast surface waves. These waves would otherwise require that a very short time step be used in numerical simulations, which would greatly increase the computational cost. To solve the equations with the rigid-lid assumption, the equations of motion are split into two parts: a set of twodimensional ''barotropic'' equations describing the vertically-averaged flow, and a set of three-dimensional ''baroclinic'' equations describing temperature, salinity and deviations of the horizontal velocities from the vertically-averaged flow

  11. Nitrate accumulation in spinach

    Steingröver, Eveliene Geertruda

    1986-01-01

    Leafy vegetables, like spinach, may contain high concentrations of nitrate. In the Netherlands, about 75% of mean daily intake of nitrate orginates from the consumption of vegatables. Hazards to human health are associated with the reduction of nitrate to nitrite. Acute nitrite poisoning causes

  12. Evaluation of the reactive nitrogen budget of the remote atmosphere in global models using airborne measurements

    Murray, L. T.; Strode, S. A.; Fiore, A. M.; Lamarque, J. F.; Prather, M. J.; Thompson, C. R.; Peischl, J.; Ryerson, T. B.; Allen, H.; Blake, D. R.; Crounse, J. D.; Brune, W. H.; Elkins, J. W.; Hall, S. R.; Hintsa, E. J.; Huey, L. G.; Kim, M. J.; Moore, F. L.; Ullmann, K.; Wennberg, P. O.; Wofsy, S. C.

    2017-12-01

    Nitrogen oxides (NOx ≡ NO + NO2) in the background atmosphere are critical precursors for the formation of tropospheric ozone and OH, thereby exerting strong influence on surface air quality, reactive greenhouse gases, and ecosystem health. The impact of NOx on atmospheric composition and climate is sensitive to the relative partitioning of reactive nitrogen between NOx and longer-lived reservoir species of the total reactive nitrogen family (NOy) such as HNO3, HNO4, PAN and organic nitrates (RONO2). Unfortunately, global chemistry-climate models (CCMs) and chemistry-transport models (CTMs) have historically disagreed in their reactive nitrogen budgets outside of polluted continental regions, and we have lacked in situ observations with which to evaluate them. Here, we compare and evaluate the NOy budget of six global models (GEOS-Chem CTM, GFDL AM3 CCM, GISS E2.1 CCM, GMI CTM, NCAR CAM CCM, and UCI CTM) using new observations of total reactive nitrogen and its member species from the NASA Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) mission. ATom has now completed two of its four planned deployments sampling the remote Pacific and Atlantic basins of both hemispheres with a comprehensive suite of measurements for constraining reactive photochemistry. All six models have simulated conditions climatologically similar to the deployments. The GMI and GEOS-Chem CTMs have in addition performed hindcast simulations using the MERRA-2 reanalysis, and have been sampled along the flight tracks. We evaluate the performance of the models relative to the observations, and identify factors contributing to their disparate behavior using known differences in model oxidation mechanisms, heterogeneous loss pathways, lightning and surface emissions, and physical loss processes.

  13. Volatiles in a sausage surface model-influence of Penicillium nalgiovense, Pediococcus pentosaceus, ascorbate, nitrate and temperature

    Sunesen, Lars Oddershede; Trihaas, Jeorgos; Stahnke, Louise Heller

    2003-01-01

    ,4-dimethyl-furan from casing and seemed to liberate chloroform and 1,2-dimethyl benzene from meat. Both 2-methyl-1-propanol and 2-methyl-1-butanol decreased significantly with increasing temperature - this indicated a shift in metabolic pathway. No effects were seen for addition of nitrate....

  14. Thermal decomposition of gaseous ammonium nitrate at low pressure: kinetic modeling of product formation and heterogeneous decomposition of nitric acid.

    Park, J; Lin, M C

    2009-12-03

    The thermal decomposition of ammonium nitrate, NH(4)NO(3) (AN), in the gas phase has been studied at 423-56 K by pyrolysis/mass spectrometry under low-pressure conditions using a Saalfeld reactor coated with boric acid. The sublimation of NH(4)NO(3) at 423 K was proposed to produce equal amounts of NH(3) and HNO(3), followed by the decomposition reaction of HNO(3), HNO(3) + M --> OH + NO(2) + M (where M = third-body and reactor surface). The absolute yields of N(2), N(2)O, H(2)O, and NH(3), which can be unambiguously measured and quantitatively calibrated under a constant pressure at 5-6.2 torr He are kinetically modeled using the detailed [H,N,O]-mechanism established earlier for the simulation of NH(3)-NO(2) (Park, J.; Lin, M. C. Technologies and Combustion for a Clean Environment. Proc. 4th Int. Conf. 1997, 34-1, 1-5) and ADN decomposition reactions (Park, J.; Chakraborty, D.; Lin, M. C. Proc. Combust. Inst. 1998, 27, 2351-2357). Since the homogeneous decomposition reaction of HNO(3) itself was found to be too slow to account for the consumption of reactants and the formation of products, we also introduced the heterogeneous decomposition of HNO(3) in our kinetic modeling. The heterogeneous decomposition rate of HNO(3), HNO(3) + (B(2)O(3)/SiO(2)) --> OH + NO(2) + (B(2)O(3)/SiO(2)), was determined by varying its rate to match the modeled result to the measured concentrations of NH(3) and H(2)O; the rate could be represented by k(2b) = 7.91 x 10(7) exp(-12 600/T) s(-1), which appears to be consistent with those reported by Johnston and co-workers (Johnston, H. S.; Foering, L.; Tao, Y.-S.; Messerly, G. H. J. Am. Chem. Soc. 1951, 73, 2319-2321) for HNO(3) decomposition on glass reactors at higher temperatures. Notably, the concentration profiles of all species measured could be satisfactorily predicted by the existing [H,N,O]-mechanism with the heterogeneous initiation process.

  15. Thermal Decomposition of Gaseous Ammonium Nitrate at Low Pressure: Kinetic Modeling of Product Formation and Heterogeneous Decomposition of Nitric Acid

    Park, J.; Lin, M. C.

    2009-10-01

    The thermal decomposition of ammonium nitrate, NH4NO3 (AN), in the gas phase has been studied at 423-56 K by pyrolysis/mass spectrometry under low-pressure conditions using a Saalfeld reactor coated with boric acid. The sublimation of NH4NO3 at 423 K was proposed to produce equal amounts of NH3 and HNO3, followed by the decomposition reaction of HNO3, HNO3 + M → OH + NO2 + M (where M = third-body and reactor surface). The absolute yields of N2, N2O, H2O, and NH3, which can be unambiguously measured and quantitatively calibrated under a constant pressure at 5-6.2 torr He are kinetically modeled using the detailed [H,N,O]-mechanism established earlier for the simulation of NH3-NO2 (Park, J.; Lin, M. C. Technologies and Combustion for a Clean Environment. Proc. 4th Int. Conf. 1997, 34-1, 1-5) and ADN decomposition reactions (Park, J.; Chakraborty, D.; Lin, M. C. Proc. Combust. Inst. 1998, 27, 2351-2357). Since the homogeneous decomposition reaction of HNO3 itself was found to be too slow to account for the consumption of reactants and the formation of products, we also introduced the heterogeneous decomposition of HNO3 in our kinetic modeling. The heterogeneous decomposition rate of HNO3, HNO3 + (B2O3/SiO2) → OH + NO2 + (B2O3/SiO2), was determined by varying its rate to match the modeled result to the measured concentrations of NH3 and H2O; the rate could be represented by k2b = 7.91 × 107 exp(-12 600/T) s-1, which appears to be consistent with those reported by Johnston and co-workers (Johnston, H. S.; Foering, L.; Tao, Y.-S.; Messerly, G. H. J. Am. Chem. Soc. 1951, 73, 2319-2321) for HNO3 decomposition on glass reactors at higher temperatures. Notably, the concentration profiles of all species measured could be satisfactorily predicted by the existing [H,N,O]-mechanism with the heterogeneous initiation process.

  16. Global warming description using Daisyworld model with greenhouse gases.

    Paiva, Susana L D; Savi, Marcelo A; Viola, Flavio M; Leiroz, Albino J K

    2014-11-01

    Daisyworld is an archetypal model of the earth that is able to describe the global regulation that can emerge from the interaction between life and environment. This article proposes a model based on the original Daisyworld considering greenhouse gases emission and absorption, allowing the description of the global warming phenomenon. Global and local analyses are discussed evaluating the influence of greenhouse gases in the planet dynamics. Numerical simulations are carried out showing the general qualitative behavior of the Daisyworld for different scenarios that includes solar luminosity variations and greenhouse gases effect. Nonlinear dynamics perspective is of concern discussing a way that helps the comprehension of the global warming phenomenon. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. A coupled chemotaxis-fluid model: Global existence

    Liu, Jian-Guo; Lorz, Alexander

    2011-01-01

    We consider a model arising from biology, consisting of chemotaxis equations coupled to viscous incompressible fluid equations through transport and external forcing. Global existence of solutions to the Cauchy problem is investigated under certain conditions. Precisely, for the chemotaxis-Navier- Stokes system in two space dimensions, we obtain global existence for large data. In three space dimensions, we prove global existence of weak solutions for the chemotaxis-Stokes system with nonlinear diffusion for the cell density.© 2011 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  18. A coupled chemotaxis-fluid model: Global existence

    Liu, Jian-Guo

    2011-09-01

    We consider a model arising from biology, consisting of chemotaxis equations coupled to viscous incompressible fluid equations through transport and external forcing. Global existence of solutions to the Cauchy problem is investigated under certain conditions. Precisely, for the chemotaxis-Navier- Stokes system in two space dimensions, we obtain global existence for large data. In three space dimensions, we prove global existence of weak solutions for the chemotaxis-Stokes system with nonlinear diffusion for the cell density.© 2011 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  19. Use of geomorphic, hydrologic, and nitrogen mass balance data to model ecosystem nitrate retention in tidal freshwater wetlands

    E. D. Seldomridge

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Geomorphic characteristics have been used as scaling parameters to predict water and other fluxes in many systems. In this study, we combined geomorphic analysis with in-situ mass balance studies of nitrate retention (NR to evaluate which geomorphic scaling parameters best predicted NR in a tidal freshwater wetland ecosystem. Geomorphic characteristics were measured for 267 individual marshes that constitute the freshwater tidal wetland ecosystem of the Patuxent River, Maryland. Nitrate retention was determined from mass balance measurements conducted at the inlets of marshes of varying size (671, 5705, and 536 873 m2 over a period of several years. Mass balance measurements indicate that NR is proportional to total water flux over the tidal cycle. Relationships between estimated tidal prism (calculated water volume for spring tides and various geomorphic parameters (marsh area, total channel length, and inlet width were defined using measurements from air photos and compared to field data. From these data, NR equations were determined for each geomorphic parameter, and used to estimate NR for all marshes in the ecosystem for a reference spring (high tide. The resulting ecosystem NR estimates were evaluated for (a accuracy and completeness of geomorphic data, (b relationship between the geomorphic parameters and hydrologic flux, and (c the ability to adapt the geomorphic parameter to varying tidal conditions. This analysis indicated that inlet width data were the most complete and provided the best estimate of ecosystem nitrate retention. Predictions based on marsh area were significantly lower than the inlet width-based predictions. Cumulative probability distributions of nitrate retention indicate that the largest 3–4% of the marshes retained half of the total nitrate for the ecosystem.

  20. Global asymptotic stability of density dependent integral population projection models.

    Rebarber, Richard; Tenhumberg, Brigitte; Townley, Stuart

    2012-02-01

    Many stage-structured density dependent populations with a continuum of stages can be naturally modeled using nonlinear integral projection models. In this paper, we study a trichotomy of global stability result for a class of density dependent systems which include a Platte thistle model. Specifically, we identify those systems parameters for which zero is globally asymptotically stable, parameters for which there is a positive asymptotically stable equilibrium, and parameters for which there is no asymptotically stable equilibrium. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Retrieving global aerosol sources from satellites using inverse modeling

    O. Dubovik

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Understanding aerosol effects on global climate requires knowing the global distribution of tropospheric aerosols. By accounting for aerosol sources, transports, and removal processes, chemical transport models simulate the global aerosol distribution using archived meteorological fields. We develop an algorithm for retrieving global aerosol sources from satellite observations of aerosol distribution by inverting the GOCART aerosol transport model.

    The inversion is based on a generalized, multi-term least-squares-type fitting, allowing flexible selection and refinement of a priori algorithm constraints. For example, limitations can be placed on retrieved quantity partial derivatives, to constrain global aerosol emission space and time variability in the results. Similarities and differences between commonly used inverse modeling and remote sensing techniques are analyzed. To retain the high space and time resolution of long-period, global observational records, the algorithm is expressed using adjoint operators.

    Successful global aerosol emission retrievals at 2°×2.5 resolution were obtained by inverting GOCART aerosol transport model output, assuming constant emissions over the diurnal cycle, and neglecting aerosol compositional differences. In addition, fine and coarse mode aerosol emission sources were inverted separately from MODIS fine and coarse mode aerosol optical thickness data, respectively. These assumptions are justified, based on observational coverage and accuracy limitations, producing valuable aerosol source locations and emission strengths. From two weeks of daily MODIS observations during August 2000, the global placement of fine mode aerosol sources agreed with available independent knowledge, even though the inverse method did not use any a priori information about aerosol sources, and was initialized with a "zero aerosol emission" assumption. Retrieving coarse mode aerosol emissions was less successful

  2. Global model for the lithospheric strength and effective elastic thickness

    Magdala Tesauro; Mikhail Kaban; S. A. P. L. Cloetingh

    2013-01-01

    Global distribution of the strength and effective elastic thickness (Te) of the lithosphere are estimated using physical parameters from recent crustal and lithospheric models. For the Te estimation we apply a new approach, which provides a possibility to take into account variations of Young modulus (E) within the lithosphere. In view of the large uncertainties affecting strength estimates, we evaluate global strength and Te distributions for possible end-member ‘hard’ (HRM) and a ‘soft’ (SR...

  3. Stabilising the global greenhouse. A simulation model

    Michaelis, P.

    1993-01-01

    This paper investigates the economic implications of a comprehensive approach to greenhouse policies that strives to stabilise the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases at an ecolocially determined threshold level. In a theoretical optimisation model conditions for an efficient allocation of abatement effort among pollutants and over time are derived. The model is empirically specified and adapted to a dynamic Gams-algorithm. By various simulation runs for the period of 1990 to 2110, the economics of greenhouse gas accumulation are explored. In particular, the long-run cost associated with the above stabilisation target are evaluated for three different policy scenarios: i) A comprehensive approach that covers all major greenhouse gases simultaneously, ii) a piecemeal approach that is limited to reducing CO 2 emissions, and iii) a ten-year moratorium that postpones abatement effort until new scientific evidence on the greenhouse effect will become available. Comparing the simulation results suggests that a piecemeal approach would considerably increase total cost, whereas a ten-year moratorium might be reasonable even if the probability of 'good news' is comparatively small. (orig.)

  4. Do nitrates differ?

    Fung, H.-L.

    1992-01-01

    1 The organic nitrates all share a common biochemical and physiological mechanism of action. 2 The organic nitrates differ substantially in their pharmacologic potency and pharmacokinetics. In vitro potency differences appear larger than the corresponding in vivo activities. 3 The duration of action of organic nitrates, after a single immediate-release dose, is governed by the pharmacokinetics of the drug. However, the duration of action of available sustained-release preparations, whatever the nitrate or formulation, is limited to about 12 h, due to the development of pharmacologic tolerance. 4 Nitrates do not appear to differ in their production of undesirable effects. PMID:1633079

  5. Nitrate pollution of groundwater

    Heaton, T.H.E.

    1986-01-01

    Concern about the possible health risks associated with the consumption of nitrate has led many countries, including South Africa, to propose that 10mg of nitrogen (as nitrate or nitrite) per liter should be the maximum allowable limit for domestic water supplies. Groundwater in certain parts of South Africa and Namibia contains nitrate in concentrations which exceed this limit. The CSIR's Natural Isotope Division has been studying the nitrogen isotope composition of the nitrate as an aid to investigation into the sources of this nitrate contamination

  6. Modeling the Effect of Oil Price on Global Fertilizer Prices

    P-Y. Chen (Ping-Yu); C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); C-C. Chen (Chi-Chung); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThe main purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effect of crude oil price on global fertilizer prices in both the mean and volatility. The endogenous structural breakpoint unit root test, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, and alternative volatility models, including the

  7. Toward an Integrative Model of Global Business Strategy

    Li, Xin

    fragmentation-integration-fragmentation-integration upward spiral. In response to the call for integrative approach to strategic management research, we propose an integrative model of global business strategy that aims at integrating not only strategy and IB but also the different paradigms within the strategy...... field. We also discuss the merit and limitation of our model....

  8. Combined discriminative global and generative local models for visual tracking

    Zhao, Liujun; Zhao, Qingjie; Chen, Yanming; Lv, Peng

    2016-03-01

    It is a challenging task to develop an effective visual tracking algorithm due to factors such as pose variation, rotation, and so on. Combined discriminative global and generative local appearance models are proposed to address this problem. Specifically, we develop a compact global object representation by extracting the low-frequency coefficients of the color and texture of the object based on two-dimensional discrete cosine transform. Then, with the global appearance representation, we learn a discriminative metric classifier in an online fashion to differentiate the target object from its background, which is very important to robustly indicate the changes in appearance. Second, we develop a new generative local model that exploits the scale invariant feature transform and its spatial geometric information. To make use of the advantages of the global discriminative model and the generative local model, we incorporate them into Bayesian inference framework. In this framework, the complementary models help the tracker locate the target more accurately. Furthermore, we use different mechanisms to update global and local templates to capture appearance changes. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach performs favorably against state-of-the-art methods in terms of accuracy.

  9. Nitrate Deposition to Surface Snow at Summit, Greenland, Following the 9 November 2000 Solar Proton Event

    Duderstadt, Katharine A.; Dibb, Jack E.; Schwadron, Nathan A.; Spence, Harlan E.; Jackman, Charles Herbert; Randall, Cora E.; Solomon, Stanley C.; Mills, Michael J.

    2014-01-01

    This study considers whether spurious peaks in nitrate ions in snow sampled at Summit, Greenland from August 2000 to August 2002 are related to solar proton events. After identifying tropospheric sources of nitrate on the basis of correlations with sulfate, ammonium, sodium, and calcium, we use the three-dimensional global Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) to examine unaccounted for nitrate spikes. Model calculations confirm that solar proton events significantly impact HOx, NOx, and O3 levels in the mesosphere and stratosphere during the weeks and months following the major 9 November 2000 solar proton event. However, SPE-enhanced NOy calculated within the atmospheric column is too small to account for the observed nitrate ion peaks in surface snow. Instead, our WACCM results suggest that nitrate spikes not readily accounted for by measurement correlations are likely of anthropogenic origin. These results, consistent with other recent studies, imply that nitrate spikes in ice cores are not suitable proxies for individual SPEs and motivate the need to identify alternative proxies.

  10. Ammonium nitrate explosion hazards

    Negovanović Milanka

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Ammonium nitrate (AN primarily is used as a fertilizer but it is also very important compound in the production of industrial explosives. The application of ammonium nitrate in the production of industrial explosives was related with the early era of Nobel dynamite and widely increased with the appearance of blasting agents such as ANFO and Slurry, in the middle of the last Century. Throughout the world millions of tons of ammonium nitrate are produced annually and handled without incident. Although ammonium nitrate generally is used safely, accidental explosions involving AN have high impact resulting in loss of lives and destruction of property. The paper presents the basic properties of ammonium nitrate as well as hazards in handling of ammonium nitrate in order to prevent accidents. Several accidents with explosions of ammonium nitrate resulted in catastrophic consequences are listed in the paper as examples of non-compliance with prescribed procedures.

  11. An integrated modelling and multicriteria analysis approach to managing nitrate diffuse pollution: 2. A case study for a chalk catchment in England.

    Koo, B K; O'Connell, P E

    2006-04-01

    The site-specific land use optimisation methodology, suggested by the authors in the first part of this two-part paper, has been applied to the River Kennet catchment at Marlborough, Wiltshire, UK, for a case study. The Marlborough catchment (143 km(2)) is an agriculture-dominated rural area over a deep chalk aquifer that is vulnerable to nitrate pollution from agricultural diffuse sources. For evaluation purposes, the catchment was discretised into a network of 1 kmx1 km grid cells. For each of the arable-land grid cells, seven land use alternatives (four arable-land alternatives and three grassland alternatives) were evaluated for their environmental and economic potential. For environmental evaluation, nitrate leaching rates of land use alternatives were estimated using SHETRAN simulations and groundwater pollution potential was evaluated using the DRASTIC index. For economic evaluation, economic gross margins were estimated using a simple agronomic model based on nitrogen response functions and agricultural land classification grades. In order to see whether the site-specific optimisation is efficient at the catchment scale, land use optimisation was carried out for four optimisation schemes (i.e. using four sets of criterion weights). Consequently, four land use scenarios were generated and the site-specifically optimised land use scenario was evaluated as the best compromise solution between long term nitrate pollution and agronomy at the catchment scale.

  12. Nitrate radicals and biogenic volatile organic compounds ...

    Oxidation of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC) by the nitrate radical (NO3) represents one of the important interactions between anthropogenic emissions related to combustion and natural emissions from the biosphere. This interaction has been recognized for more than 3 decades, during which time a large body of research has emerged from laboratory, field, and modeling studies. NO3-BVOC reactions influence air quality, climate and visibility through regional and global budgets for reactive nitrogen (particularly organic nitrates), ozone, and organic aerosol. Despite its long history of research and the significance of this topic in atmospheric chemistry, a number of important uncertainties remain. These include an incomplete understanding of the rates, mechanisms, and organic aerosol yields for NO3-BVOC reactions, lack of constraints on the role of heterogeneous oxidative processes associated with the NO3 radical, the difficulty of characterizing the spatial distributions of BVOC and NO3 within the poorly mixed nocturnal atmosphere, and the challenge of constructing appropriate boundary layer schemes and non-photochemical mechanisms for use in state-of-the-art chemical transport and chemistry–climate models. This review is the result of a workshop of the same title held at the Georgia Institute of Technology in June 2015. The first half of the review summarizes the current literature on NO3-BVOC chemistry, with a particular focus on recent advances in

  13. Interdecadal variability in a global coupled model

    Storch, J.S. von.

    1994-01-01

    Interdecadal variations are studied in a 325-year simulation performed by a coupled atmosphere - ocean general circulation model. The patterns obtained in this study may be considered as characteristic patterns for interdecadal variations. 1. The atmosphere: Interdecadal variations have no preferred time scales, but reveal well-organized spatial structures. They appear as two modes, one is related with variations of the tropical easterlies and the other with the Southern Hemisphere westerlies. Both have red spectra. The amplitude of the associated wind anomalies is largest in the upper troposphere. The associated temperature anomalies are in thermal-wind balance with the zonal winds and are out-of-phase between the troposphere and the lower stratosphere. 2. The Pacific Ocean: The dominant mode in the Pacific appears to be wind-driven in the midlatitudes and is related to air-sea interaction processes during one stage of the oscillation in the tropics. Anomalies of this mode propagate westward in the tropics and the northward (southwestward) in the North (South) Pacific on a time scale of about 10 to 20 years. (orig.)

  14. Toward GEOS-6, A Global Cloud System Resolving Atmospheric Model

    Putman, William M.

    2010-01-01

    NASA is committed to observing and understanding the weather and climate of our home planet through the use of multi-scale modeling systems and space-based observations. Global climate models have evolved to take advantage of the influx of multi- and many-core computing technologies and the availability of large clusters of multi-core microprocessors. GEOS-6 is a next-generation cloud system resolving atmospheric model that will place NASA at the forefront of scientific exploration of our atmosphere and climate. Model simulations with GEOS-6 will produce a realistic representation of our atmosphere on the scale of typical satellite observations, bringing a visual comprehension of model results to a new level among the climate enthusiasts. In preparation for GEOS-6, the agency's flagship Earth System Modeling Framework [JDl] has been enhanced to support cutting-edge high-resolution global climate and weather simulations. Improvements include a cubed-sphere grid that exposes parallelism; a non-hydrostatic finite volume dynamical core, and algorithm designed for co-processor technologies, among others. GEOS-6 represents a fundamental advancement in the capability of global Earth system models. The ability to directly compare global simulations at the resolution of spaceborne satellite images will lead to algorithm improvements and better utilization of space-based observations within the GOES data assimilation system

  15. Simulation of Soil Water content and Nitrate under Different Fertigation Strategies for Sweet Pepper in Isfahan by EU-ROTATE-N Model.

    forough fazel

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: World's population growth and limited water resources and needing to more food production led to interest farmers to use nitrogen fertilizer more than soil requires and subsequently Nitrate leaching causes groundwater and environmental pollution. Therefore, researches has concentrated on improvement of nitrogen use efficiency, which numerical simulation is the effective solutions to optimize the management of water and fertilizer in the field in order to achieve the maximal yield and minimal nitrate pollution of soil, groundwater and drainage in water deficiency crisis condition. For this reason, the evaluation of new user friendly models in correct estimation of soil moisture and nitrogen content distribution and recognition of water and solutes movement in the soil and choosing the best management option for increasing productivity and economic performance and also reduction of nitrate pollution of soil and ground water source with the least limitations and high accuracy is necessary. The Eu-Rotate-N model has been developed for simulation of nitrogen use and specifically for optimization of nitrogen use in variation of vegetables in a wide range of conditions, which without the need to calibration has presented satisfactory results in many areas. So this study was conducted to evaluate the efficiency of Eu-Rate-N model in assessment of moisture and nitrogen distribution and yield under different nitrogen fertigation management for pepper plant. Materials and Methods: Sweet pepper was planted at density of 8.33plant per m2 in a row planting method. 150kg per hectare per year of fertilizer was used during the season. Crop yield, soil water and nitrogen content were measured on a regular basis. The treatments consisted of three fertilizer level: zero (N0, the ratio of ammonium to nitrate 20:80 (N1 and 40:60 (N2, which was conducted in a completely randomized block with three replications in Isfahan. Irrigation based on daily

  16. Global dynamics of a dengue epidemic mathematical model

    Cai Liming [Department of Mathematics, Xinyang Normal University, Xinyang 464000 (China); Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Academia Sinica, Beijing 100080 (China)], E-mail: lmcai06@yahoo.com.cn; Guo Shumin [Beijing Institute of Information Control, Beijing 100037 (China); Li, XueZhi [Department of Mathematics, Xinyang Normal University, Xinyang 464000 (China); Ghosh, Mini [School of Mathematics and Computer Application, Thapar University, Patiala 147004 (India)

    2009-11-30

    The paper investigates the global stability of a dengue epidemic model with saturation and bilinear incidence. The constant human recruitment rate and exponential natural death, as well as vector population with asymptotically constant population, are incorporated into the model. The model exhibits two equilibria, namely, the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium. The stability of these two equilibria is controlled by the threshold number R{sub 0}. It is shown that if R{sub 0} is less than one, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and in such a case the endemic equilibrium does not exist; if R{sub 0} is greater than one, then the disease persists and the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable.

  17. Global dynamics of a dengue epidemic mathematical model

    Cai Liming; Guo Shumin; Li, XueZhi; Ghosh, Mini

    2009-01-01

    The paper investigates the global stability of a dengue epidemic model with saturation and bilinear incidence. The constant human recruitment rate and exponential natural death, as well as vector population with asymptotically constant population, are incorporated into the model. The model exhibits two equilibria, namely, the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium. The stability of these two equilibria is controlled by the threshold number R 0 . It is shown that if R 0 is less than one, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and in such a case the endemic equilibrium does not exist; if R 0 is greater than one, then the disease persists and the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable.

  18. Archaeomagnetic Dating in Europe Using a Global Geomagnetic Field Model

    Lodge, A.; Suttie, N.; Holme, R.; Shaw, J.; Hill, M. J.; Linford, P.

    2009-12-01

    Using up-to-date archaeomagnetic data from Europe and CALS7K.2 as an apriori model, we produce a global geomagnetic field model to be used for archaeomagnetic dating in Europe. More details on the modelling process will be presented elsewhere (in session GP12, abstract: Geophysical insights from archaeomagnetic dating). Here we apply the global geomagnetic field model to a series of test cases from both recently published data and unpublished data to demonstrate its application to archaeomagnetic dating. We compare the results produced using our model with those from the spherical cap harmonic model, SCHA.DIF.3K (Pavón-Carrasco et al., 2009), the global geomagnetic field model, ARCH3K.1 (Korte et al., 2009) and those produced using the palaeosecular variation curves generated using Bayesian statistics (Lanos, 2004). We include examples which emphasise the importance of using three component data (declination, inclination and intensity) to produce an improved archaeomagnetic date. In addition to the careful selection of an appropriate model for archaeomagnetic dating, the choice of errors on the model curves is vital for providing archaeologists with an age range of possible dates. We discuss how best to constrain the errors on the model curves and alternative ways to the mathematical method of Lanos (2004) for producing an archaeomagnetic date for archaeologists.

  19. A high-resolution global flood hazard model

    Sampson, Christopher C.; Smith, Andrew M.; Bates, Paul B.; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Freer, Jim E.

    2015-09-01

    Floods are a natural hazard that affect communities worldwide, but to date the vast majority of flood hazard research and mapping has been undertaken by wealthy developed nations. As populations and economies have grown across the developing world, so too has demand from governments, businesses, and NGOs for modeled flood hazard data in these data-scarce regions. We identify six key challenges faced when developing a flood hazard model that can be applied globally and present a framework methodology that leverages recent cross-disciplinary advances to tackle each challenge. The model produces return period flood hazard maps at ˜90 m resolution for the whole terrestrial land surface between 56°S and 60°N, and results are validated against high-resolution government flood hazard data sets from the UK and Canada. The global model is shown to capture between two thirds and three quarters of the area determined to be at risk in the benchmark data without generating excessive false positive predictions. When aggregated to ˜1 km, mean absolute error in flooded fraction falls to ˜5%. The full complexity global model contains an automatically parameterized subgrid channel network, and comparison to both a simplified 2-D only variant and an independently developed pan-European model shows the explicit inclusion of channels to be a critical contributor to improved model performance. While careful processing of existing global terrain data sets enables reasonable model performance in urban areas, adoption of forthcoming next-generation global terrain data sets will offer the best prospect for a step-change improvement in model performance.

  20. Modelling the coupled chemico-osmotic and advective-diffusive transport of nitrate salts in the Callovo-Oxfordian clay

    Baechler, S.; Croise, J.; Altmann, S.

    2010-01-01

    Document available in extended abstract form only. Fine-grained saturated porous materials can act as a semi-permeable osmotic membrane when exposed to a solute concentration gradient. The ions diffusion is hindered while water movement towards higher concentrations takes place in the semi-permeable membrane. The capacity of the fine-grained porous material to act as a semi permeable osmotic membrane is referred to as the osmotic efficiency (its value is 1 when the membranes is ideal, less than 1 when the membrane is leaky, allowing diffusion). The efficiency to retain ions in solution is dependent on the thickness of the diffuse double layer which itself depends on the solution concentration in the membrane. Clay rich formations have been shown to act as non-ideal semi-permeable membrane. Andra is investigating the Callovo-Oxfordian clay as a host rock for intermediate-level to high-level radioactive waste. In this context, it has been feared that osmotic water flows generated by the release of sodium nitrate salt in high concentrations, out of intermediate radioactive bituminous waste, could induce important over-pressures. The latest would eventually lead to fracturing of the host rock around the waste disposal drifts. The purpose of the present study was to develop a simulation code with the capacity to assess the potential impact of osmosis on: the re-saturation of the waste disposal drifts, the pressure evolution and the solute transport in and around a waste disposal drift. A chemo-osmotic coupled flow and transport model was implemented using the FlexPDE-finite element library. Our model is based on the chemo-osmotic formulation developed by Bader and Kooi, 2005. The model has been extended to highly concentrated solutions based on Pitzer's equation. In order to assess the impact of osmotic flow on the re-saturation time, the model was also designed to allow unsaturated flow modelling. The model configuration consists of an initially unsaturated 2D

  1. Paladin Enterprises: Monolithic particle physics models global climate.

    2002-01-01

    Paladin Enterprises presents a monolithic particle model of the universe which will be used by them to build an economical fusion energy system. The model is an extension of the work done by James Clerk Maxwell. Essentially, gravity is unified with electro-magnetic forces and shown to be a product of a closed loop current system, i.e. a particle - monolithic or sub atomic. This discovery explains rapid global climate changes which are evident in the geological record and also provides an explanation for recent changes in the global climate.

  2. MATRIX (Multiconfiguration Aerosol TRacker of mIXing state: an aerosol microphysical module for global atmospheric models

    S. E. Bauer

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available A new aerosol microphysical module MATRIX, the Multiconfiguration Aerosol TRacker of mIXing state, and its application in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS climate model (ModelE are described. This module, which is based on the quadrature method of moments (QMOM, represents nucleation, condensation, coagulation, internal and external mixing, and cloud-drop activation and provides aerosol particle mass and number concentration and particle size information for up to 16 mixed-mode aerosol populations. Internal and external mixing among aerosol components sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, carbonaceous aerosols, dust and sea-salt particles are represented. The solubility of each aerosol population, which is explicitly calculated based on its soluble and insoluble components, enables calculation of the dependence of cloud drop activation on the microphysical characterization of multiple soluble aerosol populations.

    A detailed model description and results of box-model simulations of various aerosol population configurations are presented. The box model experiments demonstrate the dependence of cloud activating aerosol number concentration on the aerosol population configuration; comparisons to sectional models are quite favorable. MATRIX is incorporated into the GISS climate model and simulations are carried out primarily to assess its performance/efficiency for global-scale atmospheric model application. Simulation results were compared with aircraft and station measurements of aerosol mass and number concentration and particle size to assess the ability of the new method to yield data suitable for such comparison. The model accurately captures the observed size distributions in the Aitken and accumulation modes up to particle diameter 1 μm, in which sulfate, nitrate, black and organic carbon are predominantly located; however the model underestimates coarse-mode number concentration and size, especially in the marine environment

  3. Global distribution of urban parameters derived from high-resolution global datasets for weather modelling

    Kawano, N.; Varquez, A. C. G.; Dong, Y.; Kanda, M.

    2016-12-01

    Numerical model such as Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with single-layer Urban Canopy Model (WRF-UCM) is one of the powerful tools to investigate urban heat island. Urban parameters such as average building height (Have), plain area index (λp) and frontal area index (λf), are necessary inputs for the model. In general, these parameters are uniformly assumed in WRF-UCM but this leads to unrealistic urban representation. Distributed urban parameters can also be incorporated into WRF-UCM to consider a detail urban effect. The problem is that distributed building information is not readily available for most megacities especially in developing countries. Furthermore, acquiring real building parameters often require huge amount of time and money. In this study, we investigated the potential of using globally available satellite-captured datasets for the estimation of the parameters, Have, λp, and λf. Global datasets comprised of high spatial resolution population dataset (LandScan by Oak Ridge National Laboratory), nighttime lights (NOAA), and vegetation fraction (NASA). True samples of Have, λp, and λf were acquired from actual building footprints from satellite images and 3D building database of Tokyo, New York, Paris, Melbourne, Istanbul, Jakarta and so on. Regression equations were then derived from the block-averaging of spatial pairs of real parameters and global datasets. Results show that two regression curves to estimate Have and λf from the combination of population and nightlight are necessary depending on the city's level of development. An index which can be used to decide which equation to use for a city is the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). On the other hand, λphas less dependence on GDP but indicated a negative relationship to vegetation fraction. Finally, a simplified but precise approximation of urban parameters through readily-available, high-resolution global datasets and our derived regressions can be utilized to estimate a

  4. Assessment of groundwater vulnerability to nitrates from agricultural sources using a GIS-compatible logic multicriteria model.

    Rebolledo, Boris; Gil, Antonia; Flotats, Xavier; Sánchez, José Ángel

    2016-04-15

    In the present study an overlay method to assess groundwater vulnerability is proposed. This new method based on multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) was developed and validated using an appropriate case study in Aragon area (NE Spain). The Vulnerability Index to Nitrates from Agricultural Sources (VINAS) incorporates a novel Logic Scoring of Preferences (LSP) approach, and it has been developed using public geographic information from the European Union. VINAS-LSP identifies areas with five categories of vulnerability, taking into account the hydrogeological and environmental characteristics of the territory as a whole. The resulting LSP map is a regional screening tool that can provide guidance on the potential risk of nitrate pollution, as well as highlight areas where specific research and farming planning policies are required. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Regression Model to Predict Global Solar Irradiance in Malaysia

    Hairuniza Ahmed Kutty

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A novel regression model is developed to estimate the monthly global solar irradiance in Malaysia. The model is developed based on different available meteorological parameters, including temperature, cloud cover, rain precipitate, relative humidity, wind speed, pressure, and gust speed, by implementing regression analysis. This paper reports on the details of the analysis of the effect of each prediction parameter to identify the parameters that are relevant to estimating global solar irradiance. In addition, the proposed model is compared in terms of the root mean square error (RMSE, mean bias error (MBE, and the coefficient of determination (R2 with other models available from literature studies. Seven models based on single parameters (PM1 to PM7 and five multiple-parameter models (PM7 to PM12 are proposed. The new models perform well, with RMSE ranging from 0.429% to 1.774%, R2 ranging from 0.942 to 0.992, and MBE ranging from −0.1571% to 0.6025%. In general, cloud cover significantly affects the estimation of global solar irradiance. However, cloud cover in Malaysia lacks sufficient influence when included into multiple-parameter models although it performs fairly well in single-parameter prediction models.

  6. A physically based model of global freshwater surface temperature

    van Beek, Ludovicus P. H.; Eikelboom, Tessa; van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

    2012-09-01

    Temperature determines a range of physical properties of water and exerts a strong control on surface water biogeochemistry. Thus, in freshwater ecosystems the thermal regime directly affects the geographical distribution of aquatic species through their growth and metabolism and indirectly through their tolerance to parasites and diseases. Models used to predict surface water temperature range between physically based deterministic models and statistical approaches. Here we present the initial results of a physically based deterministic model of global freshwater surface temperature. The model adds a surface water energy balance to river discharge modeled by the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. In addition to advection of energy from direct precipitation, runoff, and lateral exchange along the drainage network, energy is exchanged between the water body and the atmosphere by shortwave and longwave radiation and sensible and latent heat fluxes. Also included are ice formation and its effect on heat storage and river hydraulics. We use the coupled surface water and energy balance model to simulate global freshwater surface temperature at daily time steps with a spatial resolution of 0.5° on a regular grid for the period 1976-2000. We opt to parameterize the model with globally available data and apply it without calibration in order to preserve its physical basis with the outlook of evaluating the effects of atmospheric warming on freshwater surface temperature. We validate our simulation results with daily temperature data from rivers and lakes (U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), limited to the USA) and compare mean monthly temperatures with those recorded in the Global Environment Monitoring System (GEMS) data set. Results show that the model is able to capture the mean monthly surface temperature for the majority of the GEMS stations, while the interannual variability as derived from the USGS and NOAA data was captured reasonably well. Results are poorest for

  7. A data mining approach to improve multiple regression models of soil nitrate concentration predictions in Quercus rotundifolia montados (Portugal)

    Nunes, Jorge; Madeira, Manuel; Gazarini, Luiz; Neves, José; Vicente, Henrique

    2012-01-01

    The changes in the soil nitrate concentration were studied during 2 years in a ‘‘montado’’ ecosystem, in the South of Portugal. Total rainfall, air and soil temperature and soil water content under and outside Quercus rotundifolia canopy were also evaluated. A cluster analysis was carried out using climatic and microclimatic parameters in order to maximize the intraclass similarity and minimize the interclass similarity. It was used the k-Means Clustering Method. Se...

  8. Use of geomorphic, hydrologic, and nitrogen mass balance data to model ecosystem nitrate retention in tidal freshwater wetlands

    E. D. Seldomridge; K. L. Prestegaard

    2012-01-01

    Geomorphic characteristics have been used as scaling parameters to predict water and other fluxes in many systems. In this study, we combined geomorphic analysis with in-situ mass balance studies of nitrate retention (NR) to evaluate which geomorphic scaling parameters best predicted NR in a tidal freshwater wetland ecosystem. Geomorphic characteristics were measured for 267 individual marshes that constitute the freshwater tidal wetland ecosystem of the Patuxent River...

  9. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models; Third year report

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R. [Applied Research Corp., College Station, TX (United States)

    1994-05-01

    This report was prepared by the Applied Research Corporation (ARC), College Station, Texas, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate studies task. The task supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and is part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work is under the overall direction of the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), US Department of Energy Headquarters, Washington, DC. The scope of the report is to present the results of the third year`s work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain several studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals.

  10. Seismic waves and earthquakes in a global monolithic model

    Roubíček, Tomáš

    2018-03-01

    The philosophy that a single "monolithic" model can "asymptotically" replace and couple in a simple elegant way several specialized models relevant on various Earth layers is presented and, in special situations, also rigorously justified. In particular, global seismicity and tectonics is coupled to capture, e.g., (here by a simplified model) ruptures of lithospheric faults generating seismic waves which then propagate through the solid-like mantle and inner core both as shear (S) or pressure (P) waves, while S-waves are suppressed in the fluidic outer core and also in the oceans. The "monolithic-type" models have the capacity to describe all the mentioned features globally in a unified way together with corresponding interfacial conditions implicitly involved, only when scaling its parameters appropriately in different Earth's layers. Coupling of seismic waves with seismic sources due to tectonic events is thus an automatic side effect. The global ansatz is here based, rather for an illustration, only on a relatively simple Jeffreys' viscoelastic damageable material at small strains whose various scaling (limits) can lead to Boger's viscoelastic fluid or even to purely elastic (inviscid) fluid. Self-induced gravity field, Coriolis, centrifugal, and tidal forces are counted in our global model, as well. The rigorous mathematical analysis as far as the existence of solutions, convergence of the mentioned scalings, and energy conservation is briefly presented.

  11. Global Land Use Regression Model for Nitrogen Dioxide Air Pollution.

    Larkin, Andrew; Geddes, Jeffrey A; Martin, Randall V; Xiao, Qingyang; Liu, Yang; Marshall, Julian D; Brauer, Michael; Hystad, Perry

    2017-06-20

    Nitrogen dioxide is a common air pollutant with growing evidence of health impacts independent of other common pollutants such as ozone and particulate matter. However, the worldwide distribution of NO 2 exposure and associated impacts on health is still largely uncertain. To advance global exposure estimates we created a global nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) land use regression model for 2011 using annual measurements from 5,220 air monitors in 58 countries. The model captured 54% of global NO 2 variation, with a mean absolute error of 3.7 ppb. Regional performance varied from R 2 = 0.42 (Africa) to 0.67 (South America). Repeated 10% cross-validation using bootstrap sampling (n = 10,000) demonstrated a robust performance with respect to air monitor sampling in North America, Europe, and Asia (adjusted R 2 within 2%) but not for Africa and Oceania (adjusted R 2 within 11%) where NO 2 monitoring data are sparse. The final model included 10 variables that captured both between and within-city spatial gradients in NO 2 concentrations. Variable contributions differed between continental regions, but major roads within 100 m and satellite-derived NO 2 were consistently the strongest predictors. The resulting model can be used for global risk assessments and health studies, particularly in countries without existing NO 2 monitoring data or models.

  12. Synchronization Experiments With A Global Coupled Model of Intermediate Complexity

    Selten, Frank; Hiemstra, Paul; Shen, Mao-Lin

    2013-04-01

    In the super modeling approach an ensemble of imperfect models are connected through nudging terms that nudge the solution of each model to the solution of all other models in the ensemble. The goal is to obtain a synchronized state through a proper choice of connection strengths that closely tracks the trajectory of the true system. For the super modeling approach to be successful, the connections should be dense and strong enough for synchronization to occur. In this study we analyze the behavior of an ensemble of connected global atmosphere-ocean models of intermediate complexity. All atmosphere models are connected to the same ocean model through the surface fluxes of heat, water and momentum, the ocean is integrated using weighted averaged surface fluxes. In particular we analyze the degree of synchronization between the atmosphere models and the characteristics of the ensemble mean solution. The results are interpreted using a low order atmosphere-ocean toy model.

  13. Coupling of oceanic carbon and nitrogen: A window to spatially resolved quantitative reconstruction of nitrate inventories

    Glock, N.; Liebetrau, V.; Gorb, S.; Wallmann, K. J. G.; Erdem, Z.; Schönfeld, J.; Eisenhauer, A.

    2017-12-01

    Anthropogenic impact has led to a severe acceleration of the global nitrogen cycle. Every second nitrogen atom in the biosphere may now originate from anthropogenic sources such as chemical fertilizers and the burning of fossil fuels. A quantitative reconstruction of past reactive nitrogen inventories is invaluable to facilitate projections for future scenarios and calibrations for such paleoproxies should be done as long the natural signature is still visible. Here we present a first quantitative reconstruction of nitrate concentrations in intermediate water depths of the Peruvian oxygen minimum zone over the last deglaciation using the pore density in the benthic foraminiferal species Bolivina spissa. A comparison of the nitrate reconstruction to the stable carbon isotope (δ13C) record reveals a strong coupling between the carbon and nitrogen cycles. The linear correlation between δ13C and nitrate availability remained stable over the last 22,000 years, facilitating the use of δ13C records as a quantitative nitrate proxy. The combination of the pore density record with δ13C records shows an elevated oceanic nitrate inventory during the Last Glacial Maximum as compared to the Holocene. Our novel proxy approach is consistent with the results of previous δ15N-based biogeochemical modeling studies, and thus provides sound estimates of the nitrate inventory in the glacial and deglacial ocean.

  14. Global GPS Ionospheric Modelling Using Spherical Harmonic Expansion Approach

    Byung-Kyu Choi

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we developed a global ionosphere model based on measurements from a worldwide network of global positioning system (GPS. The total number of the international GPS reference stations for development of ionospheric model is about 100 and the spherical harmonic expansion approach as a mathematical method was used. In order to produce the ionospheric total electron content (TEC based on grid form, we defined spatial resolution of 2.0 degree and 5.0 degree in latitude and longitude, respectively. Two-dimensional TEC maps were constructed within the interval of one hour, and have a high temporal resolution compared to global ionosphere maps which are produced by several analysis centers. As a result, we could detect the sudden increase of TEC by processing GPS observables on 29 October, 2003 when the massive solar flare took place.

  15. Modeling global distribution of agricultural insecticides in surface waters.

    Ippolito, Alessio; Kattwinkel, Mira; Rasmussen, Jes J; Schäfer, Ralf B; Fornaroli, Riccardo; Liess, Matthias

    2015-03-01

    Agricultural insecticides constitute a major driver of animal biodiversity loss in freshwater ecosystems. However, the global extent of their effects and the spatial extent of exposure remain largely unknown. We applied a spatially explicit model to estimate the potential for agricultural insecticide runoff into streams. Water bodies within 40% of the global land surface were at risk of insecticide runoff. We separated the influence of natural factors and variables under human control determining insecticide runoff. In the northern hemisphere, insecticide runoff presented a latitudinal gradient mainly driven by insecticide application rate; in the southern hemisphere, a combination of daily rainfall intensity, terrain slope, agricultural intensity and insecticide application rate determined the process. The model predicted the upper limit of observed insecticide exposure measured in water bodies (n = 82) in five different countries reasonably well. The study provides a global map of hotspots for insecticide contamination guiding future freshwater management and conservation efforts. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Forecasting the effects of EU policy measures on the nitrate pollution of groundwater based on a coupled agroeconomic - hydro(geo)logic model (Invited)

    Wendland, F.

    2010-12-01

    The fundamental objectives of the European Union-Water Framework Directive and the EU Groundwater Directive are to attain a good status of water and groundwater resources in the member states of the EU by 2015. For river basins, whose good status cannot be guaranteed by 2015, catchment wide operational plans and measurement programs have to be drafted and implemented until 2009. In the river basin district Weser, Germany, which comprises a catchment area of ca. 49.000 km2, the achievement of the good status is unclear, or rather unlikely for 63% of the groundwater bodies. Inputs from diffuse sources and most of all nitrate losses from agriculturally used land have been identified as the main reasons for exceeding the groundwater threshold value for nitrate (50 mg/l) and for failing the good qualitative status of groundwater. The achievement of good qualitative status of groundwater bodies entails a particular challenge as the complex ecological, hydrological, hydrogeological and agro-economic relationships have to be considered simultaneously. We used an interdisciplinary model network to predict the nitrogen intakes into groundwater at the regional scale using an area differentiated approach. The model system combines the agro-economic model RAUMIS for estimating nitrogen surpluses from agriculture and the hydrological models GROWA/DENUZ/WEKU for describing the reactive nitrate transport in the soil-groundwater system. In a first step the model is used to analyze the present situation using N surpluses from agriculture for the year 2003. In many region of the Weser basin, particularly in the northwestern part which is characterized by high livestock densities, predicted nitrate concentrations in percolation water exceed the EU groundwater quality standard of 50 mg/L by far. In a second step the temporal and spatial impacts of the common agricultural policy (CAP) of the EU, already implemented agri-environmental measures of the Federal States and the expected

  17. Influence of organic carbon sources and isotope exchange processes between water and nitrate on the fractionation of the stable isotopes 15N/14N and 18O/16O in dissolved nitrate during microbial dentrification in groundwater

    Wunderlich, Anja A.L.

    2012-01-01

    Stable isotopes of nitrate are commonly used to determine sources and degradation of nitrate. In this study, nitrite oxidizing bacteria were found to promote an oxygen isotope exchange between water and nitrate under anoxic conditions. Also, different carbon sources were found to influence the enrichment of stable isotopes in nitrate during microbial denitrification. Both results refine the stable isotope model of nitrate in respect to nitrate source determination and microbial nitrate reduction.

  18. Assessing aquifer vulnerability from lumped parameter modeling of modern water proportions in groundwater mixtures - Application to nitrate pollution in California's South Coast Range

    Hagedorn, B.; Ruane, M.; Clark, N.

    2017-12-01

    In California, the overuse of synthetic fertilizers and manure in agriculture have caused nitrate (NO3) to be one of the state's most widespread groundwater pollutants. Given that nitrogen fertilizer applications have steadily increased since the 1950s and given that soil percolation and recharge transit times in California can exceed timescales of decades, the nitrate impact on groundwater resources is likely a legacy for years and even decades to come. This study presents a methodology for groundwater vulnerability assessment that operates independently of difficult-to-constrain soil and aquifer property data (i.e., saturated thickness, texture, porosity, conductivity, etc.), but rather utilizes groundwater age and, more importantly, groundwater mixing information to illustrate actual vulnerability at the water table. To accomplish this, the modern (i.e., less than 60-year old) water proportion (MWP) in groundwater mixtures is computed via lumped parameter modeling of chemical tracer (i.e., 3H, 14C and 3Hetrit) data. These MWPs are then linked to groundwater dissolved oxygen (DO) values to describe the risk for soil zone-derived nitrate to accumulate in the saturated zone. Preliminary studies carried out for 71 wells in California's South Coast Range-Coastal (SCRC) study unit reveal MWP values derived from binary dispersion models of 3.24% to 21.8%. The fact that high MWPs generally coincide with oxic (DO ≥1.5 mg/L) groundwater conditions underscores the risk towards increased groundwater NO3 pollution for many of the tested wells. These results support the conclusion that best agricultural management and policy objectives should incorporate groundwater vulnerability models that are developed at the same spatial scale as the decision making.

  19. Modelling Global Pattern Formations for Collaborative Learning Environments

    Grappiolo, Corrado; Cheong, Yun-Gyung; Khaled, Rilla

    2012-01-01

    We present our research towards the design of a computational framework capable of modelling the formation and evolution of global patterns (i.e. group structures) in a population of social individuals. The framework is intended to be used in collaborative environments, e.g. social serious games...

  20. Empirical Models for the Estimation of Global Solar Radiation in ...

    Empirical Models for the Estimation of Global Solar Radiation in Yola, Nigeria. ... and average daily wind speed (WS) for the interval of three years (2010 – 2012) measured using various instruments for Yola of recorded data collected from the Center for Atmospheric Research (CAR), Anyigba are presented and analyzed.

  1. Modeling Global Urbanization Supported by Nighttime Light Remote Sensing

    Zhou, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Urbanization, a major driver of global change, profoundly impacts our physical and social world, for example, altering carbon cycling and climate. Understanding these consequences for better scientific insights and effective decision-making unarguably requires accurate information on urban extent and its spatial distributions. In this study, we developed a cluster-based method to estimate the optimal thresholds and map urban extents from the nighttime light remote sensing data, extended this method to the global domain by developing a computational method (parameterization) to estimate the key parameters in the cluster-based method, and built a consistent 20-year global urban map series to evaluate the time-reactive nature of global urbanization (e.g. 2000 in Fig. 1). Supported by urban maps derived from nightlights remote sensing data and socio-economic drivers, we developed an integrated modeling framework to project future urban expansion by integrating a top-down macro-scale statistical model with a bottom-up urban growth model. With the models calibrated and validated using historical data, we explored urban growth at the grid level (1-km) over the next two decades under a number of socio-economic scenarios. The derived spatiotemporal information of historical and potential future urbanization will be of great value with practical implications for developing adaptation and risk management measures for urban infrastructure, transportation, energy, and water systems when considered together with other factors such as climate variability and change, and high impact weather events.

  2. Global model for the lithospheric strength and effective elastic thickness

    Tesauro, M.; Kaban, M.K.; Cloetingh, S.A.P.L.

    2013-01-01

    Global distribution of the strength and effective elastic thickness (Te) of the lithosphere are estimated using physical parameters from recent crustal and lithospheric models. For the Te estimation we apply a new approach, which provides a possibility to take into account variations of Young

  3. Global vegetation change predicted by the modified Budyko model

    Monserud, R.A.; Tchebakova, N.M.; Leemans, R. (US Department of Agriculture, Moscow, ID (United States). Intermountain Research Station, Forest Service)

    1993-09-01

    A modified Budyko global vegetation model is used to predict changes in global vegetation patterns resulting from climate change (CO[sub 2] doubling). Vegetation patterns are predicted using a model based on a dryness index and potential evaporation determined by solving radiation balance equations. Climate change scenarios are derived from predictions from four General Circulation Models (GCM's) of the atmosphere (GFDL, GISS, OSU, and UKMO). All four GCM scenarios show similar trends in vegetation shifts and in areas that remain stable, although the UKMO scenario predicts greater warming than the others. Climate change maps produced by all four GCM scenarios show good agreement with the current climate vegetation map for the globe as a whole, although over half of the vegetation classes show only poor to fair agreement. The most stable areas are Desert and Ice/Polar Desert. Because most of the predicted warming is concentrated in the Boreal and Temperate zones, vegetation there is predicted to undergo the greatest change. Most vegetation classes in the Subtropics and Tropics are predicted to expand. Any shift in the Tropics favouring either Forest over Savanna, or vice versa, will be determined by the magnitude of the increased precipitation accompanying global warming. Although the model predicts equilibrium conditions to which many plant species cannot adjust (through migration or microevolution) in the 50-100 y needed for CO[sub 2] doubling, it is not clear if projected global warming will result in drastic or benign vegetation change. 72 refs., 3 figs., 3 tabs.

  4. New Models of Hybrid Leadership in Global Higher Education

    Tonini, Donna C.; Burbules, Nicholas C.; Gunsalus, C. K.

    2016-01-01

    This manuscript highlights the development of a leadership preparation program known as the Nanyang Technological University Leadership Academy (NTULA), exploring the leadership challenges unique to a university undergoing rapid growth in a highly multicultural context, and the hybrid model of leadership it developed in response to globalization.…

  5. Multiphase modeling of nitrate photochemistry in the quasi-liquid layer (QLL: implications for NOx release from the Arctic and coastal Antarctic snowpack

    A. Saiz-Lopez

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available We utilize a multiphase model, CON-AIR (Condensed Phase to Air Transfer Model, to show that the photochemistry of nitrate (NO3− in and on ice and snow surfaces, specifically the quasi-liquid layer (QLL, can account for NOx volume fluxes, concentrations, and [NO]/[NO2] (γ=[NO]/[NO2] measured just above the Arctic and coastal Antarctic snowpack. Maximum gas phase NOx volume fluxes, concentrations and γ simulated for spring and summer range from 5.0×104 to 6.4×105 molecules cm−3 s−1, 5.7×108 to 4.8×109 molecules cm−3, and ~0.8 to 2.2, respectively, which are comparable to gas phase NOx volume fluxes, concentrations and γ measured in the field. The model incorporates the appropriate actinic solar spectrum, thereby properly weighting the different rates of photolysis of NO3− and NO2−. This is important since the immediate precursor for NO, for example, NO2−, absorbs at wavelengths longer than nitrate itself. Finally, one-dimensional model simulations indicate that both gas phase boundary layer NO and NO2 exhibit a negative concentration gradient as a function of height although [NO]/[NO2] are approximately constant. This gradient is primarily attributed to gas phase reactions of NOx with halogens oxides (i.e. as BrO and IO, HOx, and hydrocarbons, such as CH3O2.

  6. GLOBAL STABILITY AND PERIODIC SOLUTION OF A VIRAL DYNAMIC MODEL

    Erhan COŞKUN

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract:In this paper, we consider the classical viral dynamic mathematical model. Global dynamics of the model is rigorously established. We prove that, if the basic reproduction number, the HIV infection is cleared from the T-cell population; if , the HIV infection persists. For an open set of parameter values, the chronic-infection equilibrium can be unstable and periodic solutions may exist. We establish parameter regions for which is globally stable. Keywords: Global stability, HIV infection; CD4+ T cells; Periodic solution Mathematics Subject Classifications (2000: 65L10, 34B05 BİR VİRAL DİNAMİK MODELİN GLOBAL KARARLILIĞI VE PERİYODİK ÇÖZÜMÜ Özet: Bu makalede klasik viral dinamik modeli ele aldık. Modelin global dinamikleri oluşturuldu. Eğer temel üretim sayısı olur ise HIV enfeksiyonu T hücre nüfusundan çıkartılır, eğer olursa HIV enfeksiyonu çıkartılamaz. Parametre değerlerinin açık bir kümesi için kronik enfeksiyon dengesi kararsızdır ve periyodik çözüm oluşabilir. ın global kararlı olduğu parametre bölgeleri oluşturuldu. Anahtar Kelimeler: Global Kararlılık, HIV enfeksiyon, CD4+ T hücreler, Periyodik çözüm

  7. Deep-sea benthic megafaunal habitat suitability modelling: A global-scale maximum entropy model for xenophyophores

    Ashford, Oliver S.; Davies, Andrew J.; Jones, Daniel O. B.

    2014-12-01

    Xenophyophores are a group of exclusively deep-sea agglutinating rhizarian protozoans, at least some of which are foraminifera. They are an important constituent of the deep-sea megafauna that are sometimes found in sufficient abundance to act as a significant source of habitat structure for meiofaunal and macrofaunal organisms. This study utilised maximum entropy modelling (Maxent) and a high-resolution environmental database to explore the environmental factors controlling the presence of Xenophyophorea and two frequently sampled xenophyophore species that are taxonomically stable: Syringammina fragilissima and Stannophyllum zonarium. These factors were also used to predict the global distribution of each taxon. Areas of high habitat suitability for xenophyophores were highlighted throughout the world's oceans, including in a large number of areas yet to be suitably sampled, but the Northeast and Southeast Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea, the Red Sea and deep-water regions of the Malay Archipelago represented particular hotspots. The two species investigated showed more specific habitat requirements when compared to the model encompassing all xenophyophore records, perhaps in part due to the smaller number and relatively more clustered nature of the presence records available for modelling at present. The environmental variables depth, oxygen parameters, nitrate concentration, carbon-chemistry parameters and temperature were of greatest importance in determining xenophyophore distributions, but, somewhat surprisingly, hydrodynamic parameters were consistently shown to have low importance, possibly due to the paucity of well-resolved global hydrodynamic datasets. The results of this study (and others of a similar type) have the potential to guide further sample collection, environmental policy, and spatial planning of marine protected areas and industrial activities that impact the seafloor, particularly those that overlap with aggregations of

  8. The Global Classroom Video Conferencing Model and First Evaluations

    Weitze, Charlotte Lærke; Ørngreen, Rikke; Levinsen, Karin

    2013-01-01

    pedagogical innovativeness, including collaborative and technological issues. The research is based on the Global Classroom Model as it is implemented and used at an adult learning center in Denmark (VUC Storstrøm). VUC Storstrøms (VUC) Global Classroom Model is an approach to video conferencing and e......Learning using campus-based teaching combined with laptop solutions for students at home. After a couple of years of campus-to-campus video streaming, VUC started a fulltime day program in 2011 with the support of a hybrid campus and videoconference model. In this model the teachers and some of the students......This paper presents and discusses findings about how students, teachers, and the organization experience a start-up-project applying video conferences between campus and home. This is new territory for adult learning centers. The paper discusses the transition to this eLearning form and discusses...

  9. Clouds and the extratropical circulation response to global warming in a hierarchy of global atmosphere models

    Voigt, A.

    2017-12-01

    Climate models project that global warming will lead to substantial changes in extratropical jet streams. Yet, many quantitative aspects of warming-induced jet stream changes remain uncertain, and recent work has indicated an important role of clouds and their radiative interactions. Here, I will investigate how cloud-radiative changes impact the zonal-mean extratropical circulation response under global warming using a hierarchy of global atmosphere models. I will first focus on aquaplanet setups with prescribed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), which reproduce the model spread found in realistic simulations with interactive SSTs. Simulations with two CMIP5 models MPI-ESM and IPSL-CM5A and prescribed clouds show that half of the circulation response can be attributed to cloud changes. The rise of tropical high-level clouds and the upward and poleward movement of midlatitude high-level clouds lead to poleward jet shifts. High-latitude low-level cloud changes shift the jet poleward in one model but not in the other. The impact of clouds on the jet operates via the atmospheric radiative forcing that is created by the cloud changes and is qualitatively reproduced in a dry Held-Suarez model, although the latter is too sensitive because of its simplified treatment of diabatic processes. I will then show that the aquaplanet results also hold when the models are used in a realistic setup that includes continents and seasonality. I will further juxtapose these prescribed-SST simulations with interactive-SST simulations and show that atmospheric and surface cloud-radiative interactions impact the jet poleward jet shifts in about equal measure. Finally, I will discuss the cloud impact on regional and seasonal circulation changes.

  10. Model of global evaluation for energetic resources; Modelo de avaliacao global de recursos energeticos

    Fujii, Ricardo Junqueira; Udaeta, Miguel Edgar Morales; Galvao, Luiz Claudio Ribeiro [Universidade de Sao Paulo (USP), SP (Brazil). Dept. de Energia e Automacao Eletricas. Grupo de Energia]. E-mail: ricardo_fujii@pea.usp.br; daeta@pea.usp.br; lcgalvao@pea.usp.br

    2006-07-01

    The traditional energy planning usually takes into account the technical economical costs, considered alongside environmental and a few political restraints; however, there is a lack of methods to evenly assess environmental, economical, social and political costs. This work tries to change such scenario by elaborating a model to characterize an energy resource in all four dimensions - environmental, political, social and economical - in an integrated view. The model aims at two objectives: provide a method to assess the global cost of the energy resource and estimate its potential considering the limitations provided by these dimensions. To minimize the complexity of the integration process, the model strongly recommends the use of the Full Cost Accounting - FCA - method to assess the costs and benefits from any given resource. The FCA allows considering quantitative and qualitative costs, reducing the need of quantitative data, which are limited in some cases. The model has been applied in the characterization of the region of Aracatuba, located in the west part of the state of Sao Paulo - Brazil. The results showed that the potential of renewable sources are promising, especially when the global costs are considered. Some resources, in spite of being economically attractive, don't provide an acceptable global cost. It became clear that the model is a valuable tool when the conventional tools fail to address many issues, especially the need of an integrated view on the planning process; the results from this model can be applied in a portfolio selection method to evaluate the best options for a power system expansion. It has to be noticed that the usefulness of this model can be increased when adopted with a method to analyze demand side management measures, thus offering a complete set of possible choices of energy options for the decision maker. (author)

  11. Impact of mineral dust on nitrate, sulfate, and ozone in transpacific Asian pollution plumes

    T. D. Fairlie

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available We use a 3-D global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem to interpret aircraft observations of nitrate and sulfate partitioning in transpacific dust plumes during the INTEX-B campaign of April–May 2006. The model includes explicit transport of size-resolved mineral dust and its alkalinity, nitrate, and sulfate content. The observations show that particulate nitrate is primarily associated with dust, sulfate is primarily associated with ammonium, and Asian dust remains alkaline across the Pacific. This can be reproduced in the model by using a reactive uptake coefficient for HNO3 on dust (γ(HNO3 ~10−3 much lower than commonly assumed in models and possibly reflecting limitation of uptake by dust dissolution. The model overestimates gas-phase HNO3 by a factor of 2–3, typical of previous model studies; we show that this cannot be corrected by uptake on dust. We find that the fraction of aerosol nitrate on dust in the model increases from ~30% in fresh Asian outflow to 80–90% over the Northeast Pacific, reflecting in part the volatilization of ammonium nitrate and the resulting transfer of nitrate to the dust. Consumption of dust alkalinity by uptake of acid gases in the model is slow relative to the lifetime of dust against deposition, so that dust does not acidify (at least not in the bulk. This limits the potential for dust iron released by acidification to become bio-available upon dust deposition. Observations in INTEX-B show no detectable ozone depletion in Asian dust plumes, consistent with the model. Uptake of HNO3 by dust, suppressing its recycling to NOx, reduces Asian pollution influence on US surface ozone in the model by 10–15% or up to 1 ppb.

  12. Global stability of an SEIR epidemic model with constant immigration

    Li Guihua [Key Laboratory of Eco-environments in Three Gorges Reservoir Region (Ministry of Education), Faculty of Life Science, Southwest China Normal University, Chongqing 400715 (China) and Department of Mathematics, Southwest China Normal University, Chongqing 400715 (China) and Department of Mathematics, North University of China, Taiyuan Shanxi 030051 (China)]. E-mail: liguihua@nuc.edu.cn; Wang Wendi [Department of Mathematics, Southwest China Normal University, Chongqing 400715 (China); Jin Zhen [Department of Mathematics, North University of China, Taiyuan Shanxi 030051 (China)

    2006-11-15

    An SEIR epidemic model with the infectious force in the latent (exposed), infected and recovered period is studied. It is assumed that susceptible and exposed individuals have constant immigration rates. The model exhibits a unique endemic state if the fraction p of infectious immigrants is positive. If the basic reproduction number R is greater than 1, sufficient conditions for the global stability of the endemic equilibrium are obtained by the compound matrix theory.

  13. Global stability of an SEIR epidemic model with constant immigration

    Li Guihua; Wang Wendi; Jin Zhen

    2006-01-01

    An SEIR epidemic model with the infectious force in the latent (exposed), infected and recovered period is studied. It is assumed that susceptible and exposed individuals have constant immigration rates. The model exhibits a unique endemic state if the fraction p of infectious immigrants is positive. If the basic reproduction number R is greater than 1, sufficient conditions for the global stability of the endemic equilibrium are obtained by the compound matrix theory

  14. Globalization

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  15. Globalization

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-01-01

    There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  16. The nitrate time bomb: a numerical way to investigate nitrate storage and lag time in the unsaturated zone.

    Wang, L; Butcher, A S; Stuart, M E; Gooddy, D C; Bloomfield, J P

    2013-10-01

    Nitrate pollution in groundwater, which is mainly from agricultural activities, remains an international problem. It threatens the environment, economics and human health. There is a rising trend in nitrate concentrations in many UK groundwater bodies. Research has shown it can take decades for leached nitrate from the soil to discharge into groundwater and surface water due to the 'store' of nitrate and its potentially long travel time in the unsaturated and saturated zones. However, this time lag is rarely considered in current water nitrate management and policy development. The aim of this study was to develop a catchment-scale integrated numerical method to investigate the nitrate lag time in the groundwater system, and the Eden Valley, UK, was selected as a case study area. The method involves three models, namely the nitrate time bomb-a process-based model to simulate the nitrate transport in the unsaturated zone (USZ), GISGroundwater--a GISGroundwater flow model, and N-FM--a model to simulate the nitrate transport in the saturated zone. This study answers the scientific questions of when the nitrate currently in the groundwater was loaded into the unsaturated zones and eventually reached the water table; is the rising groundwater nitrate concentration in the study area caused by historic nitrate load; what caused the uneven distribution of groundwater nitrate concentration in the study area; and whether the historic peak nitrate loading has reached the water table in the area. The groundwater nitrate in the area was mainly from the 1980s to 2000s, whilst the groundwater nitrate in most of the source protection zones leached into the system during 1940s-1970s; the large and spatially variable thickness of the USZ is one of the major reasons for unevenly distributed groundwater nitrate concentrations in the study area; the peak nitrate loading around 1983 has affected most of the study area. For areas around the Bowscar, Beacon Edge, Low Plains, Nord Vue

  17. A high-resolution global-scale groundwater model

    de Graaf, I. E. M.; Sutanudjaja, E. H.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

    2015-02-01

    Groundwater is the world's largest accessible source of fresh water. It plays a vital role in satisfying basic needs for drinking water, agriculture and industrial activities. During times of drought groundwater sustains baseflow to rivers and wetlands, thereby supporting ecosystems. Most global-scale hydrological models (GHMs) do not include a groundwater flow component, mainly due to lack of geohydrological data at the global scale. For the simulation of lateral flow and groundwater head dynamics, a realistic physical representation of the groundwater system is needed, especially for GHMs that run at finer resolutions. In this study we present a global-scale groundwater model (run at 6' resolution) using MODFLOW to construct an equilibrium water table at its natural state as the result of long-term climatic forcing. The used aquifer schematization and properties are based on available global data sets of lithology and transmissivities combined with the estimated thickness of an upper, unconfined aquifer. This model is forced with outputs from the land-surface PCRaster Global Water Balance (PCR-GLOBWB) model, specifically net recharge and surface water levels. A sensitivity analysis, in which the model was run with various parameter settings, showed that variation in saturated conductivity has the largest impact on the groundwater levels simulated. Validation with observed groundwater heads showed that groundwater heads are reasonably well simulated for many regions of the world, especially for sediment basins (R2 = 0.95). The simulated regional-scale groundwater patterns and flow paths demonstrate the relevance of lateral groundwater flow in GHMs. Inter-basin groundwater flows can be a significant part of a basin's water budget and help to sustain river baseflows, especially during droughts. Also, water availability of larger aquifer systems can be positively affected by additional recharge from inter-basin groundwater flows.

  18. GLEAM version 3: Global Land Evaporation Datasets and Model

    Martens, B.; Miralles, D. G.; Lievens, H.; van der Schalie, R.; de Jeu, R.; Fernandez-Prieto, D.; Verhoest, N.

    2015-12-01

    Terrestrial evaporation links energy, water and carbon cycles over land and is therefore a key variable of the climate system. However, the global-scale magnitude and variability of the flux, and the sensitivity of the underlying physical process to changes in environmental factors, are still poorly understood due to limitations in in situ measurements. As a result, several methods have risen to estimate global patterns of land evaporation from satellite observations. However, these algorithms generally differ in their approach to model evaporation, resulting in large differences in their estimates. One of these methods is GLEAM, the Global Land Evaporation: the Amsterdam Methodology. GLEAM estimates terrestrial evaporation based on daily satellite observations of meteorological variables, vegetation characteristics and soil moisture. Since the publication of the first version of the algorithm (2011), the model has been widely applied to analyse trends in the water cycle and land-atmospheric feedbacks during extreme hydrometeorological events. A third version of the GLEAM global datasets is foreseen by the end of 2015. Given the relevance of having a continuous and reliable record of global-scale evaporation estimates for climate and hydrological research, the establishment of an online data portal to host these data to the public is also foreseen. In this new release of the GLEAM datasets, different components of the model have been updated, with the most significant change being the revision of the data assimilation algorithm. In this presentation, we will highlight the most important changes of the methodology and present three new GLEAM datasets and their validation against in situ observations and an alternative dataset of terrestrial evaporation (ERA-Land). Results of the validation exercise indicate that the magnitude and the spatiotemporal variability of the modelled evaporation agree reasonably well with the estimates of ERA-Land and the in situ

  19. Global characteristics of geomagnetic excursions as seen in global empirical models and a numerical geodynamo simulation

    Korte, M. C.; Wardinski, I.; Brown, M. C.

    2016-12-01

    Paleomagnetic results from sediments and lava flows provide observational evidence of numerous geomagnetic excursions throughout Earth's history. Two new spherical harmonic geomagnetic field models covering 50-30 ka, including the Laschamp ( 41ka) and Mono Lake ( 32-35 ka) excursions allow us to characterize the global behaviour of these events, both at Earth's surface and the core-mantle boundary. We investigate the evolution of dipole and large-scale non-dipole power throughout the duration of the model and the morphology of the large-scale radial field at the core-mantle boundary. The models suggest clear differences in both the decrease in axial dipole strength and dipole tilt between the two excursions and unlike the previously published model by Leonhardt et al. (2009), they suggest some increase of non-dipole power during the early and late stages of the Laschamp excursion. Global characteristics from the models can be directly compared with results from numerical simulations. We do so for several excursions generated by a numerical simulation driven by purely compositional convection, which appears Earth-like in terms of excursion and reversal occurrence frequency. Excursions from this simulation show differing characteristics, including differences in spectral power evolution. Some cases show similarities to the Laschamp and Mono Lake excursions in the spherical harmonic models. In particular they all indicate that excursions are mainly governed by the axial dipole term and equatorial dipole terms play a minor role.

  20. Five challenges for stochastic epidemic models involving global transmission

    Tom Britton

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The most basic stochastic epidemic models are those involving global transmission, meaning that infection rates depend only on the type and state of the individuals involved, and not on their location in the population. Simple as they are, there are still several open problems for such models. For example, when will such an epidemic go extinct and with what probability (questions depending on the population being fixed, changing or growing? How can a model be defined explaining the sometimes observed scenario of frequent mid-sized epidemic outbreaks? How can evolution of the infectious agent transmission rates be modelled and fitted to data in a robust way?

  1. Incorporating nitrogen fixing cyanobacteria in the global biogeochemical model HAMOCC

    Paulsen, Hanna; Ilyina, Tatiana; Six, Katharina

    2015-04-01

    Nitrogen fixation by marine diazotrophs plays a fundamental role in the oceanic nitrogen and carbon cycle as it provides a major source of 'new' nitrogen to the euphotic zone that supports biological carbon export and sequestration. Since most global biogeochemical models include nitrogen fixation only diagnostically, they are not able to capture its spatial pattern sufficiently. Here we present the incorporation of an explicit, dynamic representation of diazotrophic cyanobacteria and the corresponding nitrogen fixation in the global ocean biogeochemical model HAMOCC (Hamburg Ocean Carbon Cycle model), which is part of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth system model (MPI-ESM). The parameterization of the diazotrophic growth is thereby based on available knowledge about the cyanobacterium Trichodesmium spp., which is considered as the most significant pelagic nitrogen fixer. Evaluation against observations shows that the model successfully reproduces the main spatial distribution of cyanobacteria and nitrogen fixation, covering large parts of the tropical and subtropical oceans. Besides the role of cyanobacteria in marine biogeochemical cycles, their capacity to form extensive surface blooms induces a number of bio-physical feedback mechanisms in the Earth system. The processes driving these interactions, which are related to the alteration of heat absorption, surface albedo and momentum input by wind, are incorporated in the biogeochemical and physical model of the MPI-ESM in order to investigate their impacts on a global scale. First preliminary results will be shown.

  2. Global solution for a chemotactic haptotactic model of cancer invasion

    Tao, Youshan; Wang, Mingjun

    2008-10-01

    This paper deals with a mathematical model of cancer invasion of tissue recently proposed by Chaplain and Lolas. The model consists of a reaction-diffusion-taxis partial differential equation (PDE) describing the evolution of tumour cell density, a reaction-diffusion PDE governing the evolution of the proteolytic enzyme concentration and an ordinary differential equation modelling the proteolysis of the extracellular matrix (ECM). In addition to random motion, the tumour cells are directed not only by haptotaxis (cellular locomotion directed in response to a concentration gradient of adhesive molecules along the ECM) but also by chemotaxis (cellular locomotion directed in response to a concentration gradient of the diffusible proteolytic enzyme). In one space dimension, the global existence and uniqueness of a classical solution to this combined chemotactic-haptotactic model is proved for any chemotactic coefficient χ > 0. In two and three space dimensions, the global existence is proved for small χ/μ (where μ is the logistic growth rate of the tumour cells). The fundamental point of proof is to raise the regularity of a solution from L1 to Lp (p > 1). Furthermore, the existence of blow-up solutions to a sub-model in two space dimensions for large χ shows, to some extent, that the condition that χ/μ is small is necessary for the global existence of a solution to the full model.

  3. Global Earth Response to Loading by Ocean Tide Models

    Estes, R. H.; Strayer, J. M.

    1979-01-01

    Mathematical and programming techniques to numerically calculate Earth response to global semidiurnal and diurnal ocean tide models were developed. Global vertical crustal deformations were evaluated for M sub 2, S sub 2, N sub 2, K sub 2, K sub 1, O sub 1, and P sub 1 ocean tide loading, while horizontal deformations were evaluated for the M sub 2 tidal load. Tidal gravity calculations were performed for M sub 2 tidal loads, and strain tensor elements were evaluated for M sub 2 loads. The M sub 2 solution used for the ocean tide included the effects of self-gravitation and crustal loading.

  4. Nitrogen gas emissions and nitrate leaching dynamics under different tillage practices based on data synthesis and process-based modeling

    Huang, Y.; Ren, W.; Tao, B.; Zhu, X.

    2017-12-01

    Nitrogen losses from the agroecosystems have been of great concern to global changes due to the effects on global warming and water pollution in the form of nitrogen gas emissions (e.g., N2O) and mineral nitrogen leaching (e.g., NO3-), respectively. Conservation tillage, particularly no-tillage (NT), may enhance soil carbon sequestration, soil aggregation and moisture; therefore it has the potential of promoting N2O emissions and reducing NO3- leaching, comparing with conventional tillage (CT). However, associated processes are significantly affected by various factors, such as soil properties, climate, and crop types. How tillage management practices affect nitrogen transformations and fluxes is still far from clear, with inconsistent even opposite results from previous studies. To fill this knowledge gap, we quantitatively investigated gaseous and leaching nitrogen losses from NT and CT agroecosystems based on data synthesis and an improved process-based agroecosystem model. Our preliminary results suggest that NT management is more efficient in reducing NO3- leaching, and meanwhile it simultaneously increases N2O emissions by approximately 10% compared with CT. The effects of NT on N2O emissions and NO3- leaching are highly influenced by the placement of nitrogen fertilizer and are more pronounced in humid climate conditions. The effect of crop types is a less dominant factor in determining N2O and NO3- losses. Both our data synthesis and process-based modeling suggest that the enhanced carbon sequestration capacity from NT could be largely compromised by relevant NT-induced increases in N2O emissions. This study provides the comprehensive quantitative assessment of NT on the nitrogen emissions and leaching in agroecosystems. It provides scientific information for identifying proper management practices for ensuring food security and minimizing the adverse environmental impacts. The results also underscore the importance of suitable nitrogen management in the NT

  5. A global sensitivity analysis approach for morphogenesis models

    Boas, Sonja E. M.

    2015-11-21

    Background Morphogenesis is a developmental process in which cells organize into shapes and patterns. Complex, non-linear and multi-factorial models with images as output are commonly used to study morphogenesis. It is difficult to understand the relation between the uncertainty in the input and the output of such ‘black-box’ models, giving rise to the need for sensitivity analysis tools. In this paper, we introduce a workflow for a global sensitivity analysis approach to study the impact of single parameters and the interactions between them on the output of morphogenesis models. Results To demonstrate the workflow, we used a published, well-studied model of vascular morphogenesis. The parameters of this cellular Potts model (CPM) represent cell properties and behaviors that drive the mechanisms of angiogenic sprouting. The global sensitivity analysis correctly identified the dominant parameters in the model, consistent with previous studies. Additionally, the analysis provided information on the relative impact of single parameters and of interactions between them. This is very relevant because interactions of parameters impede the experimental verification of the predicted effect of single parameters. The parameter interactions, although of low impact, provided also new insights in the mechanisms of in silico sprouting. Finally, the analysis indicated that the model could be reduced by one parameter. Conclusions We propose global sensitivity analysis as an alternative approach to study the mechanisms of morphogenesis. Comparison of the ranking of the impact of the model parameters to knowledge derived from experimental data and from manipulation experiments can help to falsify models and to find the operand mechanisms in morphogenesis. The workflow is applicable to all ‘black-box’ models, including high-throughput in vitro models in which output measures are affected by a set of experimental perturbations.

  6. A global sensitivity analysis approach for morphogenesis models.

    Boas, Sonja E M; Navarro Jimenez, Maria I; Merks, Roeland M H; Blom, Joke G

    2015-11-21

    Morphogenesis is a developmental process in which cells organize into shapes and patterns. Complex, non-linear and multi-factorial models with images as output are commonly used to study morphogenesis. It is difficult to understand the relation between the uncertainty in the input and the output of such 'black-box' models, giving rise to the need for sensitivity analysis tools. In this paper, we introduce a workflow for a global sensitivity analysis approach to study the impact of single parameters and the interactions between them on the output of morphogenesis models. To demonstrate the workflow, we used a published, well-studied model of vascular morphogenesis. The parameters of this cellular Potts model (CPM) represent cell properties and behaviors that drive the mechanisms of angiogenic sprouting. The global sensitivity analysis correctly identified the dominant parameters in the model, consistent with previous studies. Additionally, the analysis provided information on the relative impact of single parameters and of interactions between them. This is very relevant because interactions of parameters impede the experimental verification of the predicted effect of single parameters. The parameter interactions, although of low impact, provided also new insights in the mechanisms of in silico sprouting. Finally, the analysis indicated that the model could be reduced by one parameter. We propose global sensitivity analysis as an alternative approach to study the mechanisms of morphogenesis. Comparison of the ranking of the impact of the model parameters to knowledge derived from experimental data and from manipulation experiments can help to falsify models and to find the operand mechanisms in morphogenesis. The workflow is applicable to all 'black-box' models, including high-throughput in vitro models in which output measures are affected by a set of experimental perturbations.

  7. Intercomparison and evaluation of global aerosol microphysical properties among AeroCom models of a range of complexity

    G. W. Mann

    2014-05-01

    of skill, suggesting that most of the individual global aerosol microphysics models are performing well, although the large model diversity indicates that some models are in poor agreement with the observations. Further work is required to better constrain size-resolved primary and secondary particle number sources, and an improved understanding of nucleation and growth (e.g. the role of nitrate and secondary organics will improve the fidelity of simulated particle size distributions.

  8. The global electroweak Standard Model fit after the Higgs discovery

    Baak, Max

    2013-01-01

    We present an update of the global Standard Model (SM) fit to electroweak precision data under the assumption that the new particle discovered at the LHC is the SM Higgs boson. In this scenario all parameters entering the calculations of electroweak precision observalbes are known, allowing, for the first time, to over-constrain the SM at the electroweak scale and assert its validity. Within the SM the W boson mass and the effective weak mixing angle can be accurately predicted from the global fit. The results are compatible with, and exceed in precision, the direct measurements. An updated determination of the S, T and U parameters, which parametrize the oblique vacuum corrections, is given. The obtained values show good consistency with the SM expectation and no direct signs of new physics are seen. We conclude with an outlook to the global electroweak fit for a future e+e- collider.

  9. A global workspace model for phenomenal and access consciousness.

    Raffone, Antonino; Pantani, Martina

    2010-06-01

    Both the global workspace theory and Block's distinction between phenomenal and access consciousness, are central in the current debates about consciousness and the neural correlates of consciousness. In this article, a unifying global workspace model for phenomenal and access consciousness is proposed. In the model, recurrent neural interactions take place in distinct yet interacting access and phenomenal brain loops. The effectiveness of feedback signaling onto sensory cortical maps is emphasized for the neural correlates of phenomenal consciousness. Two forms of top-down attention, attention for perception and attention for access, play differential roles for phenomenal and access consciousness. The model is implemented in a neural network form, with the simulation of single and multiple visual object processing, and of the attentional blink. 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Global modelling of river water quality under climate change

    van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Franssen, Wietse H. P.; Yearsley, John R.

    2017-04-01

    Climate change will pose challenges on the quality of freshwater resources for human use and ecosystems for instance by changing the dilution capacity and by affecting the rate of chemical processes in rivers. Here we assess the impacts of climate change and induced streamflow changes on a selection of water quality parameters for river basins globally. We used the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and a newly developed global water quality module for salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand. The modelling framework was validated using observed records of streamflow, water temperature, chloride, electrical conductivity, dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand for 1981-2010. VIC and the water quality module were then forced with an ensemble of bias-corrected General Circulation Model (GCM) output for the representative concentration pathways RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 to study water quality trends and identify critical regions (hotspots) of water quality deterioration for the 21st century.

  11. [Comparison of three daily global solar radiation models].

    Yang, Jin-Ming; Fan, Wen-Yi; Zhao, Ying-Hui

    2014-08-01

    Three daily global solar radiation estimation models ( Å-P model, Thornton-Running model and model provided by Liu Ke-qun et al.) were analyzed and compared using data of 13 weather stations from 1982 to 2012 from three northeastern provinces and eastern Inner Mongolia. After cross-validation analysis, the result showed that mean absolute error (MAE) for each model was 1.71, 2.83 and 1.68 MJ x m(-2) x d(-1) respectively, showing that Å-P model and model provided by Liu Ke-qun et al. which used percentage of sunshine had an advantage over Thornton-Running model which didn't use percentage of sunshine. Model provided by Liu Ke-qun et al. played a good effect on the situation of non-sunshine, and its MAE and bias percentage were 18.5% and 33.8% smaller than those of Å-P model, respectively. High precision results could be obtained by using the simple linear model of Å-P. Å-P model, Thornton-Running model and model provided by Liu Ke-qun et al. overvalued daily global solar radiation by 12.2%, 19.2% and 9.9% respectively. MAE for each station varied little with the spatial change of location, and annual MAE decreased with the advance of years. The reason for this might be that the change of observation accuracy caused by the replacement of radiation instrument in 1993. MAEs for rainy days, non-sunshine days and warm seasons of the three models were greater than those for days without rain, sunshine days and cold seasons respectively, showing that different methods should be used for different weather conditions on estimating solar radiation with meteorological elements.

  12. High temperature interaction studies on equimolar nitrate mixture of uranyl nitrate hexahydrate and gadolinium nitrate hexahydrate

    Kalekar, Bhupesh B.; Raje, Naina; Reddy, A.V.R.

    2015-01-01

    Rare earths including gadolinium form a sizeable fraction of the fission products in the nuclear fission of fissile material in the reactor. These fission products can interact with uranium dioxide fuel and can form various compounds which can alter the thermal behavior of the fuel. The mixed oxide formed due to the high temperature interactions of mixture of uranyl nitrate hexahydrate (UNH) and gadolinium nitrate hexahydrate (GdNH) has been studied using thermal and X- ray diffraction techniques. The equimolar mixture of UNH and GdNH was prepared by mixing the weighed amount of individual nitrates and grinding gently with mortar and pestle. Thermogravimetry (TG) measurements were carried out by separately heating 100 mg of mixture and individual nitrates at heating rate of 10°C min -1 using Netzsch thermal analyzer (Model No.: STA 409 PC Luxx) in high purity nitrogen atmosphere with a flow rate of 120 mL min -1 . The XRD measurement was carried out on a Philips X-ray diffractometer (Model PW1710) using nickel-filtered Cu-Kα radiation

  13. An Effective Model for Improving Global Health Nursing Competence.

    Kang, Sun-Joo

    2016-01-01

    This paper proposed an effective model for improving global health nursing competence among undergraduate students. A descriptive case study was conducted by evaluation of four implemented programs by the author. All programs were conducted with students majoring in nursing and healthcare, where the researcher was a program director, professor, or facilitator. These programs were analyzed in terms of students' needs assessment, program design, and implementation and evaluation factors. The concept and composition of global nursing competence, identified within previous studies, were deemed appropriate in all of our programs. Program composition varied from curricular to extracurricular domains. During the implementation phase, some of the programs included non-Korean students to improve cultural diversity and overcome language barriers. Qualitative and quantitative surveys were conducted to assess program efficacy. Data triangulation from students' reflective journals was examined. Additionally, students' awareness regarding changes within global health nursing, improved critical thinking, cultural understanding, and global leadership skills were investigated pre- and post-program implementation. The importance of identifying students' needs regarding global nursing competence when developing appropriate curricula is discussed.

  14. An Effective Model for Improving Global Health Nursing Competence

    Sunjoo Kang

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper developed an effective model for improving global health nursing competence among undergraduate students. A descriptive case study was conducted by implementing four programs. All programs were conducted with students majoring nursing and healthcare, where the researcher was a program director, professor, or facilitator. These programs were analyzed in terms of students’ needs assessment, program design, and implementation and evaluation factors. The concept and composition of global nursing competence, identified within previous studies, were deemed appropriate in all of our programs. Program composition varied from curricular to extracurricular domains. During the implementation phase, most of the programs included non-Korean students to improve cultural diversity and overcome language barriers. Qualitative and quantitative surveys were conducted to assess program efficacy. Data triangulation from students’ reflective journals was examined. Additionally, students’ awareness regarding changes within global health nursing, improved critical thinking, cultural understanding, and global leadership skills were investigated pre and post-program implementation. We discuss how identifying students’ needs regarding global nursing competence when developing appropriate curricula.

  15. A seawater desalination scheme for global hydrological models

    Hanasaki, Naota; Yoshikawa, Sayaka; Kakinuma, Kaoru; Kanae, Shinjiro

    2016-10-01

    Seawater desalination is a practical technology for providing fresh water to coastal arid regions. Indeed, the use of desalination is rapidly increasing due to growing water demand in these areas and decreases in production costs due to technological advances. In this study, we developed a model to estimate the areas where seawater desalination is likely to be used as a major water source and the likely volume of production. The model was designed to be incorporated into global hydrological models (GHMs) that explicitly include human water usage. The model requires spatially detailed information on climate, income levels, and industrial and municipal water use, which represent standard input/output data in GHMs. The model was applied to a specific historical year (2005) and showed fairly good reproduction of the present geographical distribution and national production of desalinated water in the world. The model was applied globally to two periods in the future (2011-2040 and 2041-2070) under three distinct socioeconomic conditions, i.e., SSP (shared socioeconomic pathway) 1, SSP2, and SSP3. The results indicate that the usage of seawater desalination will have expanded considerably in geographical extent, and that production will have increased by 1.4-2.1-fold in 2011-2040 compared to the present (from 2.8 × 109 m3 yr-1 in 2005 to 4.0-6.0 × 109 m3 yr-1), and 6.7-17.3-fold in 2041-2070 (from 18.7 to 48.6 × 109 m3 yr-1). The estimated global costs for production for each period are USD 1.1-10.6 × 109 (0.002-0.019 % of the total global GDP), USD 1.6-22.8 × 109 (0.001-0.020 %), and USD 7.5-183.9 × 109 (0.002-0.100 %), respectively. The large spreads in these projections are primarily attributable to variations within the socioeconomic scenarios.

  16. Assessing global vegetation activity using spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling

    Mulder, Vera L.; van Eck, Christel M.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Regnier, Pierre A. G.

    2016-04-01

    This work demonstrates the potential of modelling vegetation activity using a hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal model. This approach allows modelling changes in vegetation and climate simultaneous in space and time. Changes of vegetation activity such as phenology are modelled as a dynamic process depending on climate variability in both space and time. Additionally, differences in observed vegetation status can be contributed to other abiotic ecosystem properties, e.g. soil and terrain properties. Although these properties do not change in time, they do change in space and may provide valuable information in addition to the climate dynamics. The spatio-temporal Bayesian models were calibrated at a regional scale because the local trends in space and time can be better captured by the model. The regional subsets were defined according to the SREX segmentation, as defined by the IPCC. Each region is considered being relatively homogeneous in terms of large-scale climate and biomes, still capturing small-scale (grid-cell level) variability. Modelling within these regions is hence expected to be less uncertain due to the absence of these large-scale patterns, compared to a global approach. This overall modelling approach allows the comparison of model behavior for the different regions and may provide insights on the main dynamic processes driving the interaction between vegetation and climate within different regions. The data employed in this study encompasses the global datasets for soil properties (SoilGrids), terrain properties (Global Relief Model based on SRTM DEM and ETOPO), monthly time series of satellite-derived vegetation indices (GIMMS NDVI3g) and climate variables (Princeton Meteorological Forcing Dataset). The findings proved the potential of a spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling approach for assessing vegetation dynamics, at a regional scale. The observed interrelationships of the employed data and the different spatial and temporal trends support

  17. Cloning and nitrate induction of nitrate reductase mRNA

    Cheng, Chi-Lien; Dewdney, Julia; Kleinhofs, Andris; Goodman, Howard M.

    1986-01-01

    Nitrate is the major source of nitrogen taken from the soil by higher plants but requires reduction to ammonia prior to incorporation into amino acids. The first enzyme in the reducing pathway is a nitrate-inducible enzyme, nitrate reductase (EC 1.6.6.1). A specific polyclonal antiserum raised against purified barley nitrate reductase has been used to immunoprecipitate in vivo labeled protein and in vitro translation products, demonstrating that nitrate induction increases nitrate reductase p...

  18. Local and Global Function Model of the Liver

    Wang, Hesheng, E-mail: hesheng@umich.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Feng, Mary [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Jackson, Andrew [Department of Medical Physics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States); Ten Haken, Randall K.; Lawrence, Theodore S. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Cao, Yue [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Department of Radiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Department of Biomedical Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: To develop a local and global function model in the liver based on regional and organ function measurements to support individualized adaptive radiation therapy (RT). Methods and Materials: A local and global model for liver function was developed to include both functional volume and the effect of functional variation of subunits. Adopting the assumption of parallel architecture in the liver, the global function was composed of a sum of local function probabilities of subunits, varying between 0 and 1. The model was fit to 59 datasets of liver regional and organ function measures from 23 patients obtained before, during, and 1 month after RT. The local function probabilities of subunits were modeled by a sigmoid function in relating to MRI-derived portal venous perfusion values. The global function was fitted to a logarithm of an indocyanine green retention rate at 15 minutes (an overall liver function measure). Cross-validation was performed by leave-m-out tests. The model was further evaluated by fitting to the data divided according to whether the patients had hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) or not. Results: The liver function model showed that (1) a perfusion value of 68.6 mL/(100 g · min) yielded a local function probability of 0.5; (2) the probability reached 0.9 at a perfusion value of 98 mL/(100 g · min); and (3) at a probability of 0.03 [corresponding perfusion of 38 mL/(100 g · min)] or lower, the contribution to global function was lost. Cross-validations showed that the model parameters were stable. The model fitted to the data from the patients with HCC indicated that the same amount of portal venous perfusion was translated into less local function probability than in the patients with non-HCC tumors. Conclusions: The developed liver function model could provide a means to better assess individual and regional dose-responses of hepatic functions, and provide guidance for individualized treatment planning of RT.

  19. Tradeoffs between Maize Silage Yield and Nitrate Leaching in a Mediterranean Nitrate-Vulnerable Zone under Current and Projected Climate Scenarios

    Basso, Bruno; Giola, Pietro; Dumont, Benjamin; Migliorati, Massimiliano De Antoni; Cammarano, Davide; Pruneddu, Giovanni; Giunta, Francesco

    2016-01-01

    Future climatic changes may have profound impacts on cropping systems and affect the agronomic and environmental sustainability of current N management practices. The objectives of this work were to i) evaluate the ability of the SALUS crop model to reproduce experimental crop yield and soil nitrate dynamics results under different N fertilizer treatments in a farmer’s field, ii) use the SALUS model to estimate the impacts of different N fertilizer treatments on NO3- leaching under future climate scenarios generated by twenty nine different global circulation models, and iii) identify the management system that best minimizes NO3- leaching and maximizes yield under projected future climate conditions. A field experiment (maize-triticale rotation) was conducted in a nitrate vulnerable zone on the west coast of Sardinia, Italy to evaluate N management strategies that include urea fertilization (NMIN), conventional fertilization with dairy slurry and urea (CONV), and no fertilization (N0). An ensemble of 29 global circulation models (GCM) was used to simulate different climate scenarios for two Representative Circulation Pathways (RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) and evaluate potential nitrate leaching and biomass production in this region over the next 50 years. Data collected from two growing seasons showed that the SALUS model adequately simulated both nitrate leaching and crop yield, with a relative error that ranged between 0.4% and 13%. Nitrate losses under RCP8.5 were lower than under RCP6.0 only for NMIN. Accordingly, levels of plant N uptake, N use efficiency and biomass production were higher under RCP8.5 than RCP6.0. Simulations under both RCP scenarios indicated that the NMIN treatment demonstrated both the highest biomass production and NO3- losses. The newly proposed best management practice (BMP), developed from crop N uptake data, was identified as the optimal N fertilizer management practice since it minimized NO3- leaching and maximized biomass production over

  20. A Process-based Model of Global Lichen Productivity

    Porada, P.; Kleidon, A.

    2012-04-01

    Lichens and biotic crusts are abundant in most ecosystems of the world. They are the main autotrophic organisms in many deserts and at high altitudes and they can also be found in large amounts as epiphytes in some forests, especially in the boreal zone. They are characterised by a great variety of physiological properties, such as growth form, productivity or color. Due to the vast land surface areas covered by lichens, they may contribute significantly to the global terrestrial net carbon uptake. Furthermore, they potentially play an important role with respect to nutrient cycles in some ecosystems and they have the ability to enhance weathering at the surface on which they grow. A possible way to quantify these processes at the global scale is presented here in form of a process-based lichen model. This approach is based on the concepts used in many dynamical vegetation models and extends these methods to account for the specific properties of lichens. Hence, processes such as photosynthesis, respiration and water exchange are implemented as well as important trade-offs like photosynthetic capacity versus respiratory load and water content versus CO2 conductivity. The great physiological variability of lichens is incorporated directly into the model through ranges of possible parameter values, which are randomly sampled. In this way, many artificial lichen "species" are created and climate then acts as a filter to determine the species which are able to survive permanently. By averaging over the surviving "species", the model predicts lichen productivity as a function of climate input data such as temperature, radiation and precipitation at the global scale. Consequently, the contribution of lichens to the global carbon balance can be quantified. Moreover, global patterns of lichen biodiversity and other properties can be illustrated. The model can be extended to account for the nutrient dynamics of lichens, such as nitrogen fixation and the acquisition and

  1. Global stability of two models with incomplete treatment for tuberculosis

    Yang Yali; Li Jianquan; Ma Zhien; Liu Luju

    2010-01-01

    Research highlights: → Two tuberculosis models with incomplete treatment. → Intuitive epidemiological interpretations for the basic reproduction numbers. → Global dynamics of the two models. → Strategies to control the spread of tuberculosis. - Abstract: Two tuberculosis (TB) models with incomplete treatment are investigated. It is assumed that the treated individuals may enter either the latent compartment due to the remainder of Mycobacterium tuberculosis or the infectious compartment due to the treatment failure. The first model is a simple one with treatment failure reflecting the current TB treatment fact in most countries with high tuberculosis incidence. The second model refines the simple one by dividing the latent compartment into slow and fast two kinds of progresses. This improvement can be used to describe the case that the latent TB individuals have been infected with some other chronic diseases (such as HIV and diabetes) which may weaken the immunity of infected individuals and shorten the latent period of TB. Both of the two models assume mass action incidence and exponential distributions of transfers between different compartments. The basic reproduction numbers of the two models are derived and their intuitive epidemiological interpretations are given. The global dynamics of two models are all proved by using Liapunov functions. At last, some strategies to control the spread of tuberculosis are discussed.

  2. Agricultural nitrate pollution

    Anker, Helle Tegner

    2015-01-01

    Despite the passing of almost 25 years since the adoption of the EU Nitrates Directive, agricultural nitrate pollution remains a major concern in most EU Member States. This is also the case in Denmark, although a fairly strict regulatory regime has resulted in almost a 50 per cent reduction...

  3. Nitrate leaching index

    The Nitrate Leaching Index is a rapid assessment tool that evaluates nitrate (NO3) leaching potential based on basic soil and climate information. It is the basis for many nutrient management planning efforts, but it has considerable limitations because of : 1) an oversimplification of the processes...

  4. Ammonium and nitrate tolerance in lichens

    Hauck, Markus, E-mail: mhauck@gwdg.d [Department of Plant Ecology, Albrecht von Haller Institute of Plant Sciences, University of Goettingen, Untere Karspuele 2, 37073 Goettingen (Germany)

    2010-05-15

    Since lichens lack roots and take up water, solutes and gases over the entire thallus surface, these organisms respond more sensitively to changes in atmospheric purity than vascular plants. After centuries where effects of sulphur dioxide and acidity were in the focus of research on atmospheric chemistry and lichens, recently the globally increased levels of ammonia and nitrate increasingly affect lichen vegetation and gave rise to intense research on the tolerance of lichens to nitrogen pollution. The present paper discusses the main findings on the uptake of ammonia and nitrate in the lichen symbiosis and to the tolerance of lichens to eutrophication. Ammonia and nitrate are both efficiently taken up under ambient conditions. The tolerance to high nitrogen levels depends, among others, on the capability of the photobiont to provide sufficient amounts of carbon skeletons for ammonia assimilation. Lowly productive lichens are apparently predisposed to be sensitive to excess nitrogen. - Eutrophication has become a global threat for lichen diversity.

  5. A Global Change in Higher Education: Entrepreneurial University Model

    Süreyya SAKINÇ

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Universities are affected by the social and economic diversity stemmed from globalization and internationalization, and its functions, area of responsibility, organizational structure, funding capability respond this diversity. In today's knowledge society, different new concepts regarding the university education system such as Entrepreneur University, Corporation University, virtual university etc. have been emerged with wave of globalization effect. The rising competition in academic education and the mass demands for education prompt to universities to get seeking new funds for fixing their financial situation, and hit them transforming into entrepreneurial identity. The reflections of neoliberal approach in education have transformed the universities into the corporations which are much more focused on entrepreneurial, student-oriented and aimed to appropriate education and producing creative human resources for global development. In this study, a comprehensive evaluation will be carried on regarding the entrepreneur university model through the litterateur research to investigate its causes and factors that impact and improve it. The aim of the paper is to generate a framework that identifies dynamic processes of entrepreneur university model, dependently the litterateur syntheses. The contribution of the paper will depend on its consequent argument that entrepreneur university model is viable for Turkey. In this paper, the entrepreneur university model will be analyzed by Triple Helix phenomenon with the comparative approach.

  6. Globalization

    Andru?cã Maria Carmen

    2013-01-01

    The field of globalization has highlighted an interdependence implied by a more harmonious understanding determined by the daily interaction between nations through the inducement of peace and the management of streamlining and the effectiveness of the global economy. For the functioning of the globalization, the developing countries that can be helped by the developed ones must be involved. The international community can contribute to the institution of the development environment of the gl...

  7. Preparing the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) for global retrospective air quality modeling

    The US EPA has a plan to leverage recent advances in meteorological modeling to develop a "Next-Generation" air quality modeling system that will allow consistent modeling of problems from global to local scale. The meteorological model of choice is the Model for Predic...

  8. A comparative study of two approaches to analyse groundwater recharge, travel times and nitrate storage distribution at a regional scale

    Turkeltaub, T.; Ascott, M.; Gooddy, D.; Jia, X.; Shao, M.; Binley, A. M.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding deep percolation, travel time processes and nitrate storage in the unsaturated zone at a regional scale is crucial for sustainable management of many groundwater systems. Recently, global hydrological models have been developed to quantify the water balance at such scales and beyond. However, the coarse spatial resolution of the global hydrological models can be a limiting factor when analysing regional processes. This study compares simulations of water flow and nitrate storage based on regional and global scale approaches. The first approach was applied over the Loess Plateau of China (LPC) to investigate the water fluxes and nitrate storage and travel time to the LPC groundwater system. Using raster maps of climate variables, land use data and soil parameters enabled us to determine fluxes by employing Richards' equation and the advection - dispersion equation. These calculations were conducted for each cell on the raster map in a multiple 1-D column approach. In the second approach, vadose zone travel times and nitrate storage were estimated by coupling groundwater recharge (PCR-GLOBWB) and nitrate leaching (IMAGE) models with estimates of water table depth and unsaturated zone porosity. The simulation results of the two methods indicate similar spatial groundwater recharge, nitrate storage and travel time distribution. Intensive recharge rates are located mainly at the south central and south west parts of the aquifer's outcrops. Particularly low recharge rates were simulated in the top central area of the outcrops. However, there are significant discrepancies between the simulated absolute recharge values, which might be related to the coarse scale that is used in the PCR-GLOBWB model, leading to smoothing of the recharge estimations. Both models indicated large nitrate inventories in the south central and south west parts of the aquifer's outcrops and the shortest travel times in the vadose zone are in the south central and east parts of the

  9. Spatial modeling of agricultural land use change at global scale

    Meiyappan, P.; Dalton, M.; O'Neill, B. C.; Jain, A. K.

    2014-11-01

    Long-term modeling of agricultural land use is central in global scale assessments of climate change, food security, biodiversity, and climate adaptation and mitigation policies. We present a global-scale dynamic land use allocation model and show that it can reproduce the broad spatial features of the past 100 years of evolution of cropland and pastureland patterns. The modeling approach integrates economic theory, observed land use history, and data on both socioeconomic and biophysical determinants of land use change, and estimates relationships using long-term historical data, thereby making it suitable for long-term projections. The underlying economic motivation is maximization of expected profits by hypothesized landowners within each grid cell. The model predicts fractional land use for cropland and pastureland within each grid cell based on socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors that change with time. The model explicitly incorporates the following key features: (1) land use competition, (2) spatial heterogeneity in the nature of driving factors across geographic regions, (3) spatial heterogeneity in the relative importance of driving factors and previous land use patterns in determining land use allocation, and (4) spatial and temporal autocorrelation in land use patterns. We show that land use allocation approaches based solely on previous land use history (but disregarding the impact of driving factors), or those accounting for both land use history and driving factors by mechanistically fitting models for the spatial processes of land use change do not reproduce well long-term historical land use patterns. With an example application to the terrestrial carbon cycle, we show that such inaccuracies in land use allocation can translate into significant implications for global environmental assessments. The modeling approach and its evaluation provide an example that can be useful to the land use, Integrated Assessment, and the Earth system modeling

  10. Criticality parameters for uranyl nitrate or plutonium nitrate systems in tributyl phosphate/kerosine and water

    Weber, W.

    1985-01-01

    This report presents the calculated values of smallest critical masses and volumina and neutron physical parameters for uranyl nitrate (3, 4, 5% U-235) or plutonium nitrate (5% Pu-240), each in a 30 per cent solution of tributyl phosphate (TBP)/kerosine. For the corresponding nitrate-water solutions, newly calculated results are presented together with a revised solution density model. A comparison of the data shows to what extent the criticality of nitrate-TBP/kerosine systems can be assessed on the basis of nitrate-water parameters, revealing that such data can be applied to uranyl nitrate/water systems, taking into account that the smallest critical mass of uranyl nitrate-TBP/kerosine systems, up to a 5 p.c. U-235 enrichment, is by 4.5 p.c. at the most smaller than that of UNH-water solutions. Plutonium nitrate (5% Pu-240) in the TBP/kerosine solution will have a smallest critical mass of up to 7 p.c. smaller, as compared with the water data. The suitability of the computing methods and cross-sections used is verified by recalculating experiments carried out to determine the lowest critical enrichment of uranyl nitrate. The calculated results are well in agreement with experimental data. The lowest critical enrichment is calculated to be 2.10 p.c. in the isotope U-235. (orig.) [de

  11. Bioavailable atmospheric phosphorous supply to the global ocean: a 3-D global modeling study

    Myriokefalitakis, Stelios; Nenes, Athanasios; Baker, Alex R.; Mihalopoulos, Nikolaos; Kanakidou, Maria

    2016-12-01

    The atmospheric cycle of phosphorus (P) is parameterized here in a state-of-the-art global 3-D chemistry transport model, taking into account primary emissions of total P (TP) and soluble P (DP) associated with mineral dust, combustion particles from natural and anthropogenic sources, bioaerosols, sea spray and volcanic aerosols. For the present day, global TP emissions are calculated to be roughly 1.33 Tg-P yr-1, with the mineral sources contributing more than 80 % to these emissions. The P solubilization from mineral dust under acidic atmospheric conditions is also parameterized in the model and is calculated to contribute about one-third (0.14 Tg-P yr-1) of the global DP atmospheric source. To our knowledge, a unique aspect of our global study is the explicit modeling of the evolution of phosphorus speciation in the atmosphere. The simulated present-day global annual DP deposition flux is 0.45 Tg-P yr-1 (about 40 % over oceans), showing a strong spatial and temporal variability. Present-day simulations of atmospheric P aerosol concentrations and deposition fluxes are satisfactory compared with available observations, indicating however an underestimate of about 70 % on current knowledge of the sources that drive the P atmospheric cycle. Sensitivity simulations using preindustrial (year 1850) anthropogenic and biomass burning emission scenarios showed a present-day increase of 75 % in the P solubilization flux from mineral dust, i.e., the rate at which P is converted into soluble forms, compared to preindustrial times, due to increasing atmospheric acidity over the last 150 years. Future reductions in air pollutants due to the implementation of air-quality regulations are expected to decrease the P solubilization flux from mineral dust by about 30 % in the year 2100 compared to the present day. Considering, however, that all the P contained in bioaerosols is readily available for uptake by marine organisms, and also accounting for all other DP sources, a total

  12. Global Fluxon Modeling of the Solar Corona and Inner Heliosphere

    Lamb, D. A.; DeForest, C. E.

    2017-12-01

    The fluxon approach to MHD modeling enables simulations of low-beta plasmas in the absence of undesirable numerical effects such as diffusion and magnetic reconnection. The magnetic field can be modeled as a collection of discrete field lines ("fluxons") containing a set amount of magnetic flux in a prescribed field topology. Due to the fluxon model's pseudo-Lagrangian grid, simulations can be completed in a fraction of the time of traditional grid-based simulations, enabling near-real-time simulations of the global magnetic field structure and its influence on solar wind properties. Using SDO/HMI synoptic magnetograms as lower magnetic boundary conditions, and a separate one-dimensional fluid flow model attached to each fluxon, we compare the resulting fluxon relaxations with other commonly-used global models (such as PFSS), and with white-light images of the corona (including the August 2017 total solar eclipse). Finally, we show the computed magnetic field expansion ratio, and the modeled solar wind speed near the coronal-heliospheric transition. Development of the fluxon MHD model FLUX (the Field Line Universal relaXer), has been funded by NASA's Living with a Star program and by Southwest Research Institute.

  13. Global Bifurcation of a Novel Computer Virus Propagation Model

    Jianguo Ren

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In a recent paper by J. Ren et al. (2012, a novel computer virus propagation model under the effect of the antivirus ability in a real network is established. The analysis there only partially uncovers the dynamics behaviors of virus spread over the network in the case where around bifurcation is local. In the present paper, by mathematical analysis, it is further shown that, under appropriate parameter values, the model may undergo a global B-T bifurcation, and the curves of saddle-node bifurcation, Hopf bifurcation, and homoclinic bifurcation are obtained to illustrate the qualitative behaviors of virus propagation. On this basis, a collection of policies is recommended to prohibit the virus prevalence. To our knowledge, this is the first time the global bifurcation has been explored for the computer virus propagation. Theoretical results and corresponding suggestions may help us suppress or eliminate virus propagation in the network.

  14. Modeling Global Ocean Biogeochemistry With Physical Data Assimilation: A Pragmatic Solution to the Equatorial Instability

    Park, Jong-Yeon; Stock, Charles A.; Yang, Xiaosong; Dunne, John P.; Rosati, Anthony; John, Jasmin; Zhang, Shaoqing

    2018-03-01

    Reliable estimates of historical and current biogeochemistry are essential for understanding past ecosystem variability and predicting future changes. Efforts to translate improved physical ocean state estimates into improved biogeochemical estimates, however, are hindered by high biogeochemical sensitivity to transient momentum imbalances that arise during physical data assimilation. Most notably, the breakdown of geostrophic constraints on data assimilation in equatorial regions can lead to spurious upwelling, resulting in excessive equatorial productivity and biogeochemical fluxes. This hampers efforts to understand and predict the biogeochemical consequences of El Niño and La Niña. We develop a strategy to robustly integrate an ocean biogeochemical model with an ensemble coupled-climate data assimilation system used for seasonal to decadal global climate prediction. Addressing spurious vertical velocities requires two steps. First, we find that tightening constraints on atmospheric data assimilation maintains a better equatorial wind stress and pressure gradient balance. This reduces spurious vertical velocities, but those remaining still produce substantial biogeochemical biases. The remainder is addressed by imposing stricter fidelity to model dynamics over data constraints near the equator. We determine an optimal choice of model-data weights that removed spurious biogeochemical signals while benefitting from off-equatorial constraints that still substantially improve equatorial physical ocean simulations. Compared to the unconstrained control run, the optimally constrained model reduces equatorial biogeochemical biases and markedly improves the equatorial subsurface nitrate concentrations and hypoxic area. The pragmatic approach described herein offers a means of advancing earth system prediction in parallel with continued data assimilation advances aimed at fully considering equatorial data constraints.

  15. Power Elites and Club-Model Governance in Global Finance

    Tsingou, Eleni

    2014-01-01

    Contribution to the Forum: Unpacking the Deep Structures of Global Governance: How Transnational Professionals Can Make Global Governance Intelligible.......Contribution to the Forum: Unpacking the Deep Structures of Global Governance: How Transnational Professionals Can Make Global Governance Intelligible....

  16. Global model for the lithospheric strength and effective elastic thickness

    Tesauro, Magdala; Kaban, Mikhail K.; Cloetingh, Sierd A. P. L.

    2013-08-01

    Global distribution of the strength and effective elastic thickness (Te) of the lithosphere are estimated using physical parameters from recent crustal and lithospheric models. For the Te estimation we apply a new approach, which provides a possibility to take into account variations of Young modulus (E) within the lithosphere. In view of the large uncertainties affecting strength estimates, we evaluate global strength and Te distributions for possible end-member 'hard' (HRM) and a 'soft' (SRM) rheology models of the continental crust. Temperature within the lithosphere has been estimated using a recent tomography model of Ritsema et al. (2011), which has much higher horizontal resolution than previous global models. Most of the strength is localized in the crust for the HRM and in the mantle for the SRM. These results contribute to the long debates on applicability of the "crème brulée" or "jelly-sandwich" model for the lithosphere structure. Changing from the SRM to HRM turns most of the continental areas from the totally decoupled mode to the fully coupled mode of the lithospheric layers. However, in the areas characterized by a high thermal regime and thick crust, the layers remain decoupled even for the HRM. At the same time, for the inner part of the cratons the lithospheric layers are coupled in both models. Therefore, rheological variations lead to large changes in the integrated strength and Te distribution in the regions characterized by intermediate thermal conditions. In these areas temperature uncertainties have a greater effect, since this parameter principally determines rheological behavior. Comparison of the Te estimates for both models with those determined from the flexural loading and spectral analysis shows that the 'hard' rheology is likely applicable for cratonic areas, whereas the 'soft' rheology is more representative for young orogens.

  17. An Effective Model for Improving Global Health Nursing Competence

    Sunjoo Kang

    2016-01-01

    This paper proposed an effective model for improving global health nursing competence among undergraduate students. A descriptive case study was conducted by evaluation of four implemented programs by the author. All programs were conducted with students majoring in nursing and healthcare, where the researcher was a program director, professor, or facilitator. These programs were analyzed in terms of students’ needs assessment, program design, and implementation and evaluation factors. The co...

  18. Global tropospheric ozone modeling: Quantifying errors due to grid resolution

    Wild, Oliver; Prather, Michael J.

    2006-06-01

    Ozone production in global chemical models is dependent on model resolution because ozone chemistry is inherently nonlinear, the timescales for chemical production are short, and precursors are artificially distributed over the spatial scale of the model grid. In this study we examine the sensitivity of ozone, its precursors, and its production to resolution by running a global chemical transport model at four different resolutions between T21 (5.6° × 5.6°) and T106 (1.1° × 1.1°) and by quantifying the errors in regional and global budgets. The sensitivity to vertical mixing through the parameterization of boundary layer turbulence is also examined. We find less ozone production in the boundary layer at higher resolution, consistent with slower chemical production in polluted emission regions and greater export of precursors. Agreement with ozonesonde and aircraft measurements made during the NASA TRACE-P campaign over the western Pacific in spring 2001 is consistently better at higher resolution. We demonstrate that the numerical errors in transport processes on a given resolution converge geometrically for a tracer at successively higher resolutions. The convergence in ozone production on progressing from T21 to T42, T63, and T106 resolution is likewise monotonic but indicates that there are still large errors at 120 km scales, suggesting that T106 resolution is too coarse to resolve regional ozone production. Diagnosing the ozone production and precursor transport that follow a short pulse of emissions over east Asia in springtime allows us to quantify the impacts of resolution on both regional and global ozone. Production close to continental emission regions is overestimated by 27% at T21 resolution, by 13% at T42 resolution, and by 5% at T106 resolution. However, subsequent ozone production in the free troposphere is not greatly affected. We find that the export of short-lived precursors such as NOx by convection is overestimated at coarse resolution.

  19. An alternative ionospheric correction model for global navigation satellite systems

    Hoque, M. M.; Jakowski, N.

    2015-04-01

    The ionosphere is recognized as a major error source for single-frequency operations of global navigation satellite systems (GNSS). To enhance single-frequency operations the global positioning system (GPS) uses an ionospheric correction algorithm (ICA) driven by 8 coefficients broadcasted in the navigation message every 24 h. Similarly, the global navigation satellite system Galileo uses the electron density NeQuick model for ionospheric correction. The Galileo satellite vehicles (SVs) transmit 3 ionospheric correction coefficients as driver parameters of the NeQuick model. In the present work, we propose an alternative ionospheric correction algorithm called Neustrelitz TEC broadcast model NTCM-BC that is also applicable for global satellite navigation systems. Like the GPS ICA or Galileo NeQuick, the NTCM-BC can be optimized on a daily basis by utilizing GNSS data obtained at the previous day at monitor stations. To drive the NTCM-BC, 9 ionospheric correction coefficients need to be uploaded to the SVs for broadcasting in the navigation message. Our investigation using GPS data of about 200 worldwide ground stations shows that the 24-h-ahead prediction performance of the NTCM-BC is better than the GPS ICA and comparable to the Galileo NeQuick model. We have found that the 95 percentiles of the prediction error are about 16.1, 16.1 and 13.4 TECU for the GPS ICA, Galileo NeQuick and NTCM-BC, respectively, during a selected quiet ionospheric period, whereas the corresponding numbers are found about 40.5, 28.2 and 26.5 TECU during a selected geomagnetic perturbed period. However, in terms of complexity the NTCM-BC is easier to handle than the Galileo NeQuick and in this respect comparable to the GPS ICA.

  20. Globalization and migration: A "unified brain drain" model

    Brezis, Elise S.; Soueri, Ariel

    2012-01-01

    Globalization has led to a vast flow of migration of workers but also of students. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the migration of individuals encompassing decisions already at the level of education. We develop a unified brain drain model that incorporates the decisions of an individual vis - à - vis both education and migration. In the empirical part, this paper addresses international flows of migration within the EU and presents strong evidence of concentration of students in cou...

  1. Seasonal variation of fine- and coarse-mode nitrates and related aerosols over East Asia: synergetic observations and chemical transport model analysis

    Uno, Itsushi; Osada, Kazuo; Yumimoto, Keiya; Wang, Zhe; Itahashi, Syuichi; Pan, Xiaole; Hara, Yukari; Kanaya, Yugo; Yamamoto, Shigekazu; Fairlie, Thomas Duncan

    2017-11-01

    We analyzed long-term fine- and coarse-mode synergetic observations of nitrate and related aerosols (SO42-, NO3-, NH4+, Na+, Ca2+) at Fukuoka (33.52° N, 130.47° E) from August 2014 to October 2015. A Goddard Earth Observing System chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) including dust and sea salt acid uptake processes was used to assess the observed seasonal variation and the impact of long-range transport (LRT) from the Asian continent. For fine aerosols (fSO42-, fNO3-, and fNH4+), numerical results explained the seasonal changes, and a sensitivity analysis excluding Japanese domestic emissions clarified the LRT fraction at Fukuoka (85 % for fSO42-, 47 % for fNO3-, 73 % for fNH4+). Observational data confirmed that coarse NO3- (cNO3-) made up the largest proportion (i.e., 40-55 %) of the total nitrate (defined as the sum of fNO3-, cNO3-, and HNO3) during the winter, while HNO3 gas constituted approximately 40 % of the total nitrate in summer and fNO3- peaked during the winter. Large-scale dust-nitrate (mainly cNO3-) outflow from China to Fukuoka was confirmed during all dust events that occurred between January and June. The modeled cNO3- was in good agreement with observations between July and November (mainly coming from sea salt NO3-). During the winter, however, the model underestimated cNO3- levels compared to the observed levels. The reason for this underestimation was examined statistically using multiple regression analysis (MRA). We used cNa+, nss-cCa2+, and cNH4+ as independent variables to describe the observed cNO3- levels; these variables were considered representative of sea salt cNO3-, dust cNO3-, and cNO3- accompanied by cNH4+), respectively. The MRA results explained the observed seasonal changes in dust cNO3- and indicated that the dust-acid uptake scheme reproduced the observed dust-nitrate levels even in winter. The annual average contributions of each component were 43 % (sea salt cNO3-), 19 % (dust cNO3-), and 38 % (cNH4+ term). The MRA dust

  2. An Analysis of Yip's Global Strategy Model, Using Coca-Cola ...

    Analysis of the selected business cases suggest a weak fit between the Yip model of a truly Global strategy ... like Coca-Cola in the beverage industry for effective implementation of a global strategy. ... Keywords: Global Strategy, Leadership.

  3. Global sensitivity analysis of computer models with functional inputs

    Iooss, Bertrand; Ribatet, Mathieu

    2009-01-01

    Global sensitivity analysis is used to quantify the influence of uncertain model inputs on the response variability of a numerical model. The common quantitative methods are appropriate with computer codes having scalar model inputs. This paper aims at illustrating different variance-based sensitivity analysis techniques, based on the so-called Sobol's indices, when some model inputs are functional, such as stochastic processes or random spatial fields. In this work, we focus on large cpu time computer codes which need a preliminary metamodeling step before performing the sensitivity analysis. We propose the use of the joint modeling approach, i.e., modeling simultaneously the mean and the dispersion of the code outputs using two interlinked generalized linear models (GLMs) or generalized additive models (GAMs). The 'mean model' allows to estimate the sensitivity indices of each scalar model inputs, while the 'dispersion model' allows to derive the total sensitivity index of the functional model inputs. The proposed approach is compared to some classical sensitivity analysis methodologies on an analytical function. Lastly, the new methodology is applied to an industrial computer code that simulates the nuclear fuel irradiation.

  4. GLOFRIM v1.0-A globally applicable computational framework for integrated hydrological-hydrodynamic modelling

    Hoch, Jannis M.; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Baart, Fedor; Van Beek, Rens; Winsemius, Hessel C.; Bates, Paul D.; Bierkens, Marc F.P.

    2017-01-01

    We here present GLOFRIM, a globally applicable computational framework for integrated hydrological-hydrodynamic modelling. GLOFRIM facilitates spatially explicit coupling of hydrodynamic and hydrologic models and caters for an ensemble of models to be coupled. It currently encompasses the global

  5. Global climate model performance over Alaska and Greenland

    Walsh, John E.; Chapman, William L.; Romanovsky, Vladimir

    2008-01-01

    The performance of a set of 15 global climate models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project is evaluated for Alaska and Greenland, and compared with the performance over broader pan-Arctic and Northern Hemisphere extratropical domains. Root-mean-square errors relative to the 1958...... to narrowing the uncertainty and obtaining more robust estimates of future climate change in regions such as Alaska, Greenland, and the broader Arctic....... of the models are generally much larger than the biases of the composite output, indicating that the systematic errors differ considerably among the models. There is a tendency for the models with smaller errors to simulate a larger greenhouse warming over the Arctic, as well as larger increases of Arctic...

  6. Mapping the global depth to bedrock for land surface modelling

    Shangguan, W.; Hengl, T.; Yuan, H.; Dai, Y. J.; Zhang, S.

    2017-12-01

    Depth to bedrock serves as the lower boundary of land surface models, which controls hydrologic and biogeochemical processes. This paper presents a framework for global estimation of Depth to bedrock (DTB). Observations were extracted from a global compilation of soil profile data (ca. 130,000 locations) and borehole data (ca. 1.6 million locations). Additional pseudo-observations generated by expert knowledge were added to fill in large sampling gaps. The model training points were then overlaid on a stack of 155 covariates including DEM-based hydrological and morphological derivatives, lithologic units, MODIS surfacee reflectance bands and vegetation indices derived from the MODIS land products. Global spatial prediction models were developed using random forests and Gradient Boosting Tree algorithms. The final predictions were generated at the spatial resolution of 250m as an ensemble prediction of the two independently fitted models. The 10-fold cross-validation shows that the models explain 59% for absolute DTB and 34% for censored DTB (depths deep than 200 cm are predicted as 200 cm). The model for occurrence of R horizon (bedrock) within 200 cm does a good job. Visual comparisons of predictions in the study areas where more detailed maps of depth to bedrock exist show that there is a general match with spatial patterns from similar local studies. Limitation of the data set and extrapolation in data spare areas should not be ignored in applications. To improve accuracy of spatial prediction, more borehole drilling logs will need to be added to supplement the existing training points in under-represented areas.

  7. Denitrification of nitrate waste solutions

    Michaels, S.L.; Michel, R.C.; Terpandjian, P.D.; Vora, J.N.

    1976-01-01

    Bacterial denitrification by Pseudomonas Stutzeri has been chosen as the method for removing nitrate from the effluent stream of the Y-12 uranium purification process. A model was developed to predict bacterial growth and carbon and nitrate depletion during the induction period and steady state operation. Modification of analytical procedures and automatic control of the pH in the reactor are recommended to improve agreement between the prediction of the model and experimental data. An initial carbon-to-nitrogen (C/N) mass ratio of 1.4-1.5 insures adequate population growth during the induction period. Further experiments in batch reactors and in steady state flow reactors are recommended to obtain more reliable kinetic rate constants

  8. Improved data for integrated modeling of global environmental change

    Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2011-12-01

    The assessment of global environmental changes, their impact on human societies, and possible management options requires large-scale, integrated modeling efforts. These models have to link biophysical with socio-economic processes, and they have to take spatial heterogeneity of environmental conditions into account. Land use change and freshwater use are two key research areas where spatial aggregation and the use of regional average numbers may lead to biased results. Useful insights can only be obtained if processes like economic globalization can be consistently linked to local environmental conditions and resource constraints (Lambin and Meyfroidt 2011). Spatially explicit modeling of environmental changes at the global scale has a long tradition in the natural sciences (Woodward et al 1995, Alcamo et al 1996, Leemans et al 1996). Socio-economic models with comparable spatial detail, e.g. on grid-based land use change, are much less common (Heistermann et al 2006), but are increasingly being developed (Popp et al 2011, Schneider et al 2011). Spatially explicit models require spatially explicit input data, which often constrains their development and application at the global scale. The amount and quality of available data on environmental conditions is growing fast—primarily due to improved earth observation methods. Moreover, systematic efforts for collecting and linking these data across sectors are on the way (www.earthobservations.org). This has, among others, also helped to provide consistent databases on different land cover and land use types (Erb et al 2007). However, spatially explicit data on specific anthropogenic driving forces of global environmental change are still scarce—also because these cannot be collected with satellites or other devices. The basic data on socio-economic driving forces, i.e. population density and wealth (measured as gross domestic product per capita), have been prepared for spatially explicit analyses (CIESIN, IFPRI

  9. Global Stability of an Epidemic Model of Computer Virus

    Xiaofan Yang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available With the rapid popularization of the Internet, computers can enter or leave the Internet increasingly frequently. In fact, no antivirus software can detect and remove all sorts of computer viruses. This implies that viruses would persist on the Internet. To better understand the spread of computer viruses in these situations, a new propagation model is established and analyzed. The unique equilibrium of the model is globally asymptotically stable, in accordance with the reality. A parameter analysis of the equilibrium is also conducted.

  10. Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model 2010 Version: Users Guide

    Justh, H. L.

    2014-01-01

    This Technical Memorandum (TM) presents the Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model 2010 (Mars-GRAM 2010) and its new features. Mars-GRAM is an engineering-level atmospheric model widely used for diverse mission applications. Applications include systems design, performance analysis, and operations planning for aerobraking, entry, descent and landing, and aerocapture. Additionally, this TM includes instructions on obtaining the Mars-GRAM source code and data files as well as running Mars-GRAM. It also contains sample Mars-GRAM input and output files and an example of how to incorporate Mars-GRAM as an atmospheric subroutine in a trajectory code.

  11. Global atmospheric model for mercury including oxidation by bromine atoms

    C. D. Holmes

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Global models of atmospheric mercury generally assume that gas-phase OH and ozone are the main oxidants converting Hg0 to HgII and thus driving mercury deposition to ecosystems. However, thermodynamic considerations argue against the importance of these reactions. We demonstrate here the viability of atomic bromine (Br as an alternative Hg0 oxidant. We conduct a global 3-D simulation with the GEOS-Chem model assuming gas-phase Br to be the sole Hg0 oxidant (Hg + Br model and compare to the previous version of the model with OH and ozone as the sole oxidants (Hg + OH/O3 model. We specify global 3-D Br concentration fields based on our best understanding of tropospheric and stratospheric Br chemistry. In both the Hg + Br and Hg + OH/O3 models, we add an aqueous photochemical reduction of HgII in cloud to impose a tropospheric lifetime for mercury of 6.5 months against deposition, as needed to reconcile observed total gaseous mercury (TGM concentrations with current estimates of anthropogenic emissions. This added reduction would not be necessary in the Hg + Br model if we adjusted the Br oxidation kinetics downward within their range of uncertainty. We find that the Hg + Br and Hg + OH/O3 models are equally capable of reproducing the spatial distribution of TGM and its seasonal cycle at northern mid-latitudes. The Hg + Br model shows a steeper decline of TGM concentrations from the tropics to southern mid-latitudes. Only the Hg + Br model can reproduce the springtime depletion and summer rebound of TGM observed at polar sites; the snowpack component of GEOS-Chem suggests that 40% of HgII deposited to snow in the Arctic is transferred to the ocean and land reservoirs, amounting to a net deposition flux to the Arctic of 60 Mg a−1. Summertime events of depleted Hg0 at Antarctic sites due to subsidence are much better simulated by

  12. Concentration of Nitrate in Bottled Drinking Water in Qom, Iran

    Mohammad Saberi Bidgoli

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Background & Aims of the Study: The global consumption of bottled water is growing with substantial growth in sales volumes on every continent. The highest growth rates are occurring in Asia and South America. Biological and chemical monitoring of these waters is necessary. The aim of current study was determination of nitrate concentration in bottled drinking water in Qom, Iran in 2012. Materials & Methods: A cross-sectional study carried out in Qom, Iran. First of all, 18 most frequent brands of bottled drinking waters were purchased in June 2012 randomly. Then concentration of nitrate was measured according to the spectrophotometric method. In next step, experiment data were analyzed by Excel Software and P value was obtained by statistical calculations. Finally data were comprised with written nitrate concentration on labels and recommended permissible values . Results: The median nitrate concentration was 2.1 mg/L with the minimum 0.8 mg/L and maximum 8.1 mg/L. In 66.7 % of the samples, the measured nitrate concentrations were less than the written nitrate concentrations and in 33.3% of samples, the nitrate concentration was higher. The statistical calculation proved the significant difference between the median of written nitrate concentration on the label and investigated nitrate concentration (P value > 0.05. Conclusions: It be concluded that the measured nitrate concentration in all of the water samples is below the recommended permissible level.

  13. An Instructional Development Model for Global Organizations: The GOaL Model.

    Hara, Noriko; Schwen, Thomas M.

    1999-01-01

    Presents an instructional development model, GOaL (Global Organization Localization), for use by global organizations. Topics include gaps in language, culture, and needs; decentralized processes; collaborative efforts; predetermined content; multiple perspectives; needs negotiation; learning within context; just-in-time training; and bilingual…

  14. The Global Modeling Test Bed - Building a New National Capability for Advancing Operational Global Modeling in the United States.

    Toepfer, F.; Cortinas, J. V., Jr.; Kuo, W.; Tallapragada, V.; Stajner, I.; Nance, L. B.; Kelleher, K. E.; Firl, G.; Bernardet, L.

    2017-12-01

    NOAA develops, operates, and maintains an operational global modeling capability for weather, sub seasonal and seasonal prediction for the protection of life and property and fostering the US economy. In order to substantially improve the overall performance and accelerate advancements of the operational modeling suite, NOAA is partnering with NCAR to design and build the Global Modeling Test Bed (GMTB). The GMTB has been established to provide a platform and a capability for researchers to contribute to the advancement primarily through the development of physical parameterizations needed to improve operational NWP. The strategy to achieve this goal relies on effectively leveraging global expertise through a modern collaborative software development framework. This framework consists of a repository of vetted and supported physical parameterizations known as the Common Community Physics Package (CCPP), a common well-documented interface known as the Interoperable Physics Driver (IPD) for combining schemes into suites and for their configuration and connection to dynamic cores, and an open evidence-based governance process for managing the development and evolution of CCPP. In addition, a physics test harness designed to work within this framework has been established in order to facilitate easier like-to-like comparison of physics advancements. This paper will present an overview of the design of the CCPP and test platform. Additionally, an overview of potential new opportunities of how physics developers can engage in the process, from implementing code for CCPP/IPD compliance to testing their development within an operational-like software environment, will be presented. In addition, insight will be given as to how development gets elevated to CPPP-supported status, the pre-cursor to broad availability and use within operational NWP. An overview of how the GMTB can be expanded to support other global or regional modeling capabilities will also be presented.

  15. Do Methods Matter in Global Leadership Development? Testing the Global Leadership Development Ecosystem Conceptual Model

    Walker, Jennie L.

    2018-01-01

    As world communication, technology, and trade become increasingly integrated through globalization, multinational corporations seek employees with global leadership skills. However, the demand for these skills currently outweighs the supply. Given the rarity of globally ready leaders, global competency development should be emphasized in business…

  16. Log-Normal Turbulence Dissipation in Global Ocean Models

    Pearson, Brodie; Fox-Kemper, Baylor

    2018-03-01

    Data from turbulent numerical simulations of the global ocean demonstrate that the dissipation of kinetic energy obeys a nearly log-normal distribution even at large horizontal scales O (10 km ) . As the horizontal scales of resolved turbulence are larger than the ocean is deep, the Kolmogorov-Yaglom theory for intermittency in 3D homogeneous, isotropic turbulence cannot apply; instead, the down-scale potential enstrophy cascade of quasigeostrophic turbulence should. Yet, energy dissipation obeys approximate log-normality—robustly across depths, seasons, regions, and subgrid schemes. The distribution parameters, skewness and kurtosis, show small systematic departures from log-normality with depth and subgrid friction schemes. Log-normality suggests that a few high-dissipation locations dominate the integrated energy and enstrophy budgets, which should be taken into account when making inferences from simplified models and inferring global energy budgets from sparse observations.

  17. Understanding Global Change: Frameworks and Models for Teaching Systems Thinking

    Bean, J. R.; Mitchell, K.; Zoehfeld, K.; Oshry, A.; Menicucci, A. J.; White, L. D.; Marshall, C. R.

    2017-12-01

    The scientific and education communities must impart to teachers, students, and the public an understanding of how the various factors that drive climate and global change operate, and why the rates and magnitudes of these changes related to human perturbation of Earth system processes today are cause for deep concern. Even though effective educational modules explaining components of the Earth and climate system exist, interdisciplinary learning tools are necessary to conceptually link the causes and consequences of global changes. To address this issue, the Understanding Global Change Project at the University of California Museum of Paleontology (UCMP) at UC Berkeley developed an interdisciplinary framework that organizes global change topics into three categories: (1) causes of climate change, both human and non-human (e.g., burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, Earth's tilt and orbit), (2) Earth system processes that shape the way the Earth works (e.g., Earth's energy budget, water cycle), and (3) the measurable changes in the Earth system (e.g., temperature, precipitation, ocean acidification). To facilitate student learning about the Earth as a dynamic, interacting system, a website will provide visualizations of Earth system models and written descriptions of how each framework topic is conceptually linked to other components of the framework. These visualizations and textual summarizations of relationships and feedbacks in the Earth system are a unique and crucial contribution to science communication and education, informed by a team of interdisciplinary scientists and educators. The system models are also mechanisms by which scientists can communicate how their own work informs our understanding of the Earth system. Educators can provide context and relevancy for authentic datasets and concurrently can assess student understanding of the interconnectedness of global change phenomena. The UGC resources will be available through a web-based platform and

  18. Improved Hydrology over Peatlands in a Global Land Modeling System

    Bechtold, M.; Delannoy, G.; Reichle, R.; Koster, R.; Mahanama, S.; Roose, Dirk

    2018-01-01

    Peatlands of the Northern Hemisphere represent an important carbon pool that mainly accumulated since the last ice age under permanently wet conditions in specific geological and climatic settings. The carbon balance of peatlands is closely coupled to water table dynamics. Consequently, the future carbon balance over peatlands is strongly dependent on how hydrology in peatlands will react to changing boundary conditions, e.g. due to climate change or regional water level drawdown of connected aquifers or streams. Global land surface modeling over organic-rich regions can provide valuable global-scale insights on where and how peatlands are in transition due to changing boundary conditions. However, the current global land surface models are not able to reproduce typical hydrological dynamics in peatlands well. We implemented specific structural and parametric changes to account for key hydrological characteristics of peatlands into NASA's GEOS-5 Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM, Koster et al. 2000). The main modifications pertain to the modeling of partial inundation, and the definition of peatland-specific runoff and evapotranspiration schemes. We ran a set of simulations on a high performance cluster using different CLSM configurations and validated the results with a newly compiled global in-situ dataset of water table depths in peatlands. The results demonstrate that an update of soil hydraulic properties for peat soils alone does not improve the performance of CLSM over peatlands. However, structural model changes for peatlands are able to improve the skill metrics for water table depth. The validation results for the water table depth indicate a reduction of the bias from 2.5 to 0.2 m, and an improvement of the temporal correlation coefficient from 0.5 to 0.65, and from 0.4 to 0.55 for the anomalies. Our validation data set includes both bogs (rain-fed) and fens (ground and/or surface water influence) and reveals that the metrics improved less for fens. In

  19. Global Bedload Flux Modeling and Analysis in Large Rivers

    Islam, M. T.; Cohen, S.; Syvitski, J. P.

    2017-12-01

    Proper sediment transport quantification has long been an area of interest for both scientists and engineers in the fields of geomorphology, and management of rivers and coastal waters. Bedload flux is important for monitoring water quality and for sustainable development of coastal and marine bioservices. Bedload measurements, especially for large rivers, is extremely scarce across time, and many rivers have never been monitored. Bedload measurements in rivers, is particularly acute in developing countries where changes in sediment yields is high. The paucity of bedload measurements is the result of 1) the nature of the problem (large spatial and temporal uncertainties), and 2) field costs including the time-consuming nature of the measurement procedures (repeated bedform migration tracking, bedload samplers). Here we present a first of its kind methodology for calculating bedload in large global rivers (basins are >1,000 km. Evaluation of model skill is based on 113 bedload measurements. The model predictions are compared with an empirical model developed from the observational dataset in an attempt to evaluate the differences between a physically-based numerical model and a lumped relationship between bedload flux and fluvial and basin parameters (e.g., discharge, drainage area, lithology). The initial study success opens up various applications to global fluvial geomorphology (e.g. including the relationship between suspended sediment (wash load) and bedload). Simulated results with known uncertainties offers a new research product as a valuable resource for the whole scientific community.

  20. Globally covering a-priori regional gravity covariance models

    D. Arabelos

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Gravity anomaly data generated using Wenzel’s GPM98A model complete to degree 1800, from which OSU91A has been subtracted, have been used to estimate covariance functions for a set of globally covering equal-area blocks of size 22.5° × 22.5° at Equator, having a 2.5° overlap. For each block an analytic covariance function model was determined. The models are based on 4 parameters: the depth to the Bjerhammar sphere (determines correlation, the free-air gravity anomaly variance, a scale factor of the OSU91A error degree-variances and a maximal summation index, N, of the error degree-variances. The depth of Bjerhammar-sphere varies from -134km to nearly zero, N varies from 360 to 40, the scale factor from 0.03 to 38.0 and the gravity variance from 1081 to 24(10µms-22. The parameters are interpreted in terms of the quality of the data used to construct OSU91A and GPM98A and general conditions such as the occurrence of mountain chains. The variation of the parameters show that it is necessary to use regional covariance models in order to obtain a realistic signal to noise ratio in global applications.Key words. GOCE mission, Covariance function, Spacewise approach`

  1. Glass viscosity calculation based on a global statistical modelling approach

    Fluegel, Alex

    2007-02-01

    A global statistical glass viscosity model was developed for predicting the complete viscosity curve, based on more than 2200 composition-property data of silicate glasses from the scientific literature, including soda-lime-silica container and float glasses, TV panel glasses, borosilicate fiber wool and E type glasses, low expansion borosilicate glasses, glasses for nuclear waste vitrification, lead crystal glasses, binary alkali silicates, and various further compositions from over half a century. It is shown that within a measurement series from a specific laboratory the reported viscosity values are often over-estimated at higher temperatures due to alkali and boron oxide evaporation during the measurement and glass preparation, including data by Lakatos et al. (1972) and the recently published High temperature glass melt property database for process modeling by Seward et al. (2005). Similarly, in the glass transition range many experimental data of borosilicate glasses are reported too high due to phase separation effects. The developed global model corrects those errors. The model standard error was 9-17°C, with R^2 = 0.985-0.989. The prediction 95% confidence interval for glass in mass production largely depends on the glass composition of interest, the composition uncertainty, and the viscosity level. New insights in the mixed-alkali effect are provided.

  2. Room-temperature and temperature-dependent QSRR modelling for predicting the nitrate radical reaction rate constants of organic chemicals using ensemble learning methods.

    Gupta, S; Basant, N; Mohan, D; Singh, K P

    2016-07-01

    Experimental determinations of the rate constants of the reaction of NO3 with a large number of organic chemicals are tedious, and time and resource intensive; and the development of computational methods has widely been advocated. In this study, we have developed room-temperature (298 K) and temperature-dependent quantitative structure-reactivity relationship (QSRR) models based on the ensemble learning approaches (decision tree forest (DTF) and decision treeboost (DTB)) for predicting the rate constant of the reaction of NO3 radicals with diverse organic chemicals, under OECD guidelines. Predictive powers of the developed models were established in terms of statistical coefficients. In the test phase, the QSRR models yielded a correlation (r(2)) of >0.94 between experimental and predicted rate constants. The applicability domains of the constructed models were determined. An attempt has been made to provide the mechanistic interpretation of the selected features for QSRR development. The proposed QSRR models outperformed the previous reports, and the temperature-dependent models offered a much wider applicability domain. This is the first report presenting a temperature-dependent QSRR model for predicting the nitrate radical reaction rate constant at different temperatures. The proposed models can be useful tools in predicting the reactivities of chemicals towards NO3 radicals in the atmosphere, hence, their persistence and exposure risk assessment.

  3. Evaluation of black carbon estimations in global aerosol models

    Y. Zhao

    2009-11-01

    generated a smaller change in model predictions than the range represented by the full set of AeroCom models. Upper tropospheric concentrations of BC mass from the aircraft measurements are suggested to provide a unique new benchmark to test scavenging and vertical dispersion of BC in global models.

  4. Multi-scale climate modelling over Southern Africa using a variable-resolution global model

    Engelbrecht, FA

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available -mail: fengelbrecht@csir.co.za Multi-scale climate modelling over Southern Africa using a variable-resolution global model FA Engelbrecht1, 2*, WA Landman1, 3, CJ Engelbrecht4, S Landman5, MM Bopape1, B Roux6, JL McGregor7 and M Thatcher7 1 CSIR Natural... improvement. Keywords: multi-scale climate modelling, variable-resolution atmospheric model Introduction Dynamic climate models have become the primary tools for the projection of future climate change, at both the global and regional scales. Dynamic...

  5. Global parameter estimation for thermodynamic models of transcriptional regulation.

    Suleimenov, Yerzhan; Ay, Ahmet; Samee, Md Abul Hassan; Dresch, Jacqueline M; Sinha, Saurabh; Arnosti, David N

    2013-07-15

    Deciphering the mechanisms involved in gene regulation holds the key to understanding the control of central biological processes, including human disease, population variation, and the evolution of morphological innovations. New experimental techniques including whole genome sequencing and transcriptome analysis have enabled comprehensive modeling approaches to study gene regulation. In many cases, it is useful to be able to assign biological significance to the inferred model parameters, but such interpretation should take into account features that affect these parameters, including model construction and sensitivity, the type of fitness calculation, and the effectiveness of parameter estimation. This last point is often neglected, as estimation methods are often selected for historical reasons or for computational ease. Here, we compare the performance of two parameter estimation techniques broadly representative of local and global approaches, namely, a quasi-Newton/Nelder-Mead simplex (QN/NMS) method and a covariance matrix adaptation-evolutionary strategy (CMA-ES) method. The estimation methods were applied to a set of thermodynamic models of gene transcription applied to regulatory elements active in the Drosophila embryo. Measuring overall fit, the global CMA-ES method performed significantly better than the local QN/NMS method on high quality data sets, but this difference was negligible on lower quality data sets with increased noise or on data sets simplified by stringent thresholding. Our results suggest that the choice of parameter estimation technique for evaluation of gene expression models depends both on quality of data, the nature of the models [again, remains to be established] and the aims of the modeling effort. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Nitrate Adsorption on Clay Kaolin: Batch Tests

    Morteza Mohsenipour

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Soils possessing kaolin, gibbsite, goethite, and hematite particles have been found to have a natural capacity to attenuate pollution in aqueous phase. On the other hand, the hydroxyl group in soil increases anion exchange capacity under a low pH condition. The main objective of this paper was to evaluate effects of kaolin on nitrate reduction under acidic condition. In order to analyze the kaolin adsorption behaviour under various conditions, four different concentrations of nitrate, 45, 112.5, 225, and 450 mgNO3-/L, with a constant pH equal to 2, constant temperature equal to 25°C, and exposure period varying from 0 to 150 minutes were considered. The capacity of nitrate adsorption on kaolin has also been studied involving two well-known adsorption isotherm models, namely, Freundlich and Longmuir. The results revealed that approximately 25% of the nitrate present in the solution was adsorbed on clay kaolin. The laboratory experimental data revealed that Freundlich adsorption isotherm model was more accurate than Longmuir adsorption model in predicting of nitrate adsorption. Furthermore, the retardation factor of nitrate pollution in saturated zone has been found to be approximately 4 in presence of kaolin, which indicated that kaolin can be used for natural scavenger of pollution in the environment.

  7. Geophysical Global Modeling for Extreme Crop Production Using Photosynthesis Models Coupled to Ocean SST Dipoles

    Kaneko, D.

    2016-12-01

    Climate change appears to have manifested itself along with abnormal meteorological disasters. Instability caused by drought and flood disasters is producing poor harvests because of poor photosynthesis and pollination. Fluctuations of extreme phenomena are increasing rapidly because amplitudes of change are much greater than average trends. A fundamental cause of these phenomena derives from increased stored energy inside ocean waters. Geophysical and biochemical modeling of crop production can elucidate complex mechanisms under seasonal climate anomalies. The models have progressed through their combination with global climate reanalysis, environmental satellite data, and harvest data on the ground. This study examined adaptation of crop production to advancing abnormal phenomena related to global climate change. Global environmental surface conditions, i.e., vegetation, surface air temperature, and sea surface temperature observed by satellites, enable global modeling of crop production and monitoring. Basic streams of the concepts of modeling rely upon continental energy flow and carbon circulation among crop vegetation, land surface atmosphere combining energy advection from ocean surface anomalies. Global environmental surface conditions, e.g., vegetation, surface air temperature, and sea surface temperature observed by satellites, enable global modeling of crop production and monitoring. The method of validating the modeling relies upon carbon partitioning in biomass and grains through carbon flow by photosynthesis using carbon dioxide unit in photosynthesis. Results of computations done for this study show global distributions of actual evaporation, stomata opening, and photosynthesis, presenting mechanisms related to advection effects from SST anomalies in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian oceans on global and continental croplands. For North America, climate effects appear clearly in severe atmospheric phenomena, which have caused drought and forest fires

  8. Thermochemical nitrate reduction

    Cox, J.L.; Lilga, M.A.; Hallen, R.T.

    1992-09-01

    A series of preliminary experiments was conducted directed at thermochemically converting nitrate to nitrogen and water. Nitrates are a major constituent of the waste stored in the underground tanks on the Hanford Site, and the characteristics and effects of nitrate compounds on stabilization techniques must be considered before permanent disposal operations begin. For the thermochemical reduction experiments, six reducing agents (ammonia, formate, urea, glucose, methane, and hydrogen) were mixed separately with ∼3 wt% NO 3 - solutions in a buffered aqueous solution at high pH (13); ammonia and formate were also mixed at low pH (4). Reactions were conducted in an aqueous solution in a batch reactor at temperatures of 200 degrees C to 350 degrees C and pressures of 600 to 2800 psig. Both gas and liquid samples were analyzed. The specific components analyzed were nitrate, nitrite, nitrous oxide, nitrogen, and ammonia. Results of experimental runs showed the following order of nitrate reduction of the six reducing agents in basic solution: formate > glucose > urea > hydrogen > ammonia ∼ methane. Airnmonia was more effective under acidic conditions than basic conditions. Formate was also effective under acidic conditions. A more thorough, fundamental study appears warranted to provide additional data on the mechanism of nitrate reduction. Furthermore, an expanded data base and engineering feasibility study could be used to evaluate conversion conditions for promising reducing agents in more detail and identify new reducing agents with improved performance characteristics

  9. eWaterCycle: A global operational hydrological forecasting model

    van de Giesen, Nick; Bierkens, Marc; Donchyts, Gennadii; Drost, Niels; Hut, Rolf; Sutanudjaja, Edwin

    2015-04-01

    Development of an operational hyper-resolution hydrological global model is a central goal of the eWaterCycle project (www.ewatercycle.org). This operational model includes ensemble forecasts (14 days) to predict water related stress around the globe. Assimilation of near-real time satellite data is part of the intended product that will be launched at EGU 2015. The challenges come from several directions. First, there are challenges that are mainly computer science oriented but have direct practical hydrological implications. For example, we aim to make use as much as possible of existing standards and open-source software. For example, different parts of our system are coupled through the Basic Model Interface (BMI) developed in the framework of the Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System (CSDMS). The PCR-GLOBWB model, built by Utrecht University, is the basic hydrological model that is the engine of the eWaterCycle project. Re-engineering of parts of the software was needed for it to run efficiently in a High Performance Computing (HPC) environment, and to be able to interface using BMI, and run on multiple compute nodes in parallel. The final aim is to have a spatial resolution of 1km x 1km, which is currently 10 x 10km. This high resolution is computationally not too demanding but very memory intensive. The memory bottleneck becomes especially apparent for data assimilation, for which we use OpenDA. OpenDa allows for different data assimilation techniques without the need to build these from scratch. We have developed a BMI adaptor for OpenDA, allowing OpenDA to use any BMI compatible model. To circumvent memory shortages which would result from standard applications of the Ensemble Kalman Filter, we have developed a variant that does not need to keep all ensemble members in working memory. At EGU, we will present this variant and how it fits well in HPC environments. An important step in the eWaterCycle project was the coupling between the hydrological and

  10. Global Gauge Anomalies in Two-Dimensional Bosonic Sigma Models

    Gawȩdzki, Krzysztof; Suszek, Rafał R.; Waldorf, Konrad

    2011-03-01

    We revisit the gauging of rigid symmetries in two-dimensional bosonic sigma models with a Wess-Zumino term in the action. Such a term is related to a background closed 3-form H on the target space. More exactly, the sigma-model Feynman amplitudes of classical fields are associated to a bundle gerbe with connection of curvature H over the target space. Under conditions that were unraveled more than twenty years ago, the classical amplitudes may be coupled to the topologically trivial gauge fields of the symmetry group in a way which assures infinitesimal gauge invariance. We show that the resulting gauged Wess-Zumino amplitudes may, nevertheless, exhibit global gauge anomalies that we fully classify. The general results are illustrated on the example of the WZW and the coset models of conformal field theory. The latter are shown to be inconsistent in the presence of global anomalies. We introduce a notion of equivariant gerbes that allow an anomaly-free coupling of the Wess-Zumino amplitudes to all gauge fields, including the ones in non-trivial principal bundles. Obstructions to the existence of equivariant gerbes and their classification are discussed. The choice of different equivariant structures on the same bundle gerbe gives rise to a new type of discrete-torsion ambiguities in the gauged amplitudes. An explicit construction of gerbes equivariant with respect to the adjoint symmetries over compact simply connected simple Lie groups is given.

  11. Global Sensitivity Analysis of Environmental Models: Convergence, Robustness and Validation

    Sarrazin, Fanny; Pianosi, Francesca; Khorashadi Zadeh, Farkhondeh; Van Griensven, Ann; Wagener, Thorsten

    2015-04-01

    Global Sensitivity Analysis aims to characterize the impact that variations in model input factors (e.g. the parameters) have on the model output (e.g. simulated streamflow). In sampling-based Global Sensitivity Analysis, the sample size has to be chosen carefully in order to obtain reliable sensitivity estimates while spending computational resources efficiently. Furthermore, insensitive parameters are typically identified through the definition of a screening threshold: the theoretical value of their sensitivity index is zero but in a sampling-base framework they regularly take non-zero values. There is little guidance available for these two steps in environmental modelling though. The objective of the present study is to support modellers in making appropriate choices, regarding both sample size and screening threshold, so that a robust sensitivity analysis can be implemented. We performed sensitivity analysis for the parameters of three hydrological models with increasing level of complexity (Hymod, HBV and SWAT), and tested three widely used sensitivity analysis methods (Elementary Effect Test or method of Morris, Regional Sensitivity Analysis, and Variance-Based Sensitivity Analysis). We defined criteria based on a bootstrap approach to assess three different types of convergence: the convergence of the value of the sensitivity indices, of the ranking (the ordering among the parameters) and of the screening (the identification of the insensitive parameters). We investigated the screening threshold through the definition of a validation procedure. The results showed that full convergence of the value of the sensitivity indices is not necessarily needed to rank or to screen the model input factors. Furthermore, typical values of the sample sizes that are reported in the literature can be well below the sample sizes that actually ensure convergence of ranking and screening.

  12. Global Analysis, Interpretation, and Modelling: First Science Conference

    Sahagian, Dork

    1995-01-01

    Topics considered include: Biomass of termites and their emissions of methane and carbon dioxide - A global database; Carbon isotope discrimination during photosynthesis and the isotope ratio of respired CO2 in boreal forest ecosystems; Estimation of methane emission from rice paddies in mainland China; Climate and nitrogen controls on the geography and timescales of terrestrial biogeochemical cycling; Potential role of vegetation feedback in the climate sensitivity of high-latitude regions - A case study at 6000 years B.P.; Interannual variation of carbon exchange fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems; and Variations in modeled atmospheric transport of carbon dioxide and the consequences for CO2 inversions.

  13. Globalization

    Plum, Maja

    Globalization is often referred to as external to education - a state of affair facing the modern curriculum with numerous challenges. In this paper it is examined as internal to curriculum; analysed as a problematization in a Foucaultian sense. That is, as a complex of attentions, worries, ways...... of reasoning, producing curricular variables. The analysis is made through an example of early childhood curriculum in Danish Pre-school, and the way the curricular variable of the pre-school child comes into being through globalization as a problematization, carried forth by the comparative practices of PISA...

  14. Globalization

    F. Gerard Adams

    2008-01-01

    The rapid globalization of the world economy is causing fundamental changes in patterns of trade and finance. Some economists have argued that globalization has arrived and that the world is “flat†. While the geographic scope of markets has increased, the author argues that new patterns of trade and finance are a result of the discrepancies between “old†countries and “new†. As the differences are gradually wiped out, particularly if knowledge and technology spread worldwide, the t...

  15. Global sensitivity analysis for models with spatially dependent outputs

    Iooss, B.; Marrel, A.; Jullien, M.; Laurent, B.

    2011-01-01

    The global sensitivity analysis of a complex numerical model often calls for the estimation of variance-based importance measures, named Sobol' indices. Meta-model-based techniques have been developed in order to replace the CPU time-expensive computer code with an inexpensive mathematical function, which predicts the computer code output. The common meta-model-based sensitivity analysis methods are well suited for computer codes with scalar outputs. However, in the environmental domain, as in many areas of application, the numerical model outputs are often spatial maps, which may also vary with time. In this paper, we introduce an innovative method to obtain a spatial map of Sobol' indices with a minimal number of numerical model computations. It is based upon the functional decomposition of the spatial output onto a wavelet basis and the meta-modeling of the wavelet coefficients by the Gaussian process. An analytical example is presented to clarify the various steps of our methodology. This technique is then applied to a real hydrogeological case: for each model input variable, a spatial map of Sobol' indices is thus obtained. (authors)

  16. Nitrate reduction in geologically heterogeneous catchments

    Refsgaard, Jens Christian; Auken, Esben; Bamberg, Charlotte A.

    2014-01-01

    In order to fulfil the requirements of the EU Water Framework Directive nitrate load from agricultural areas to surface water in Denmark needs to be reduced by about 40%. The regulations imposed until now have been uniform, i.e. the same restrictions for all areas independent of the subsurface...... conditions. Studies have shown that on a national basis about 2/3 of the nitrate leaching from the root zone is reduced naturally, through denitrification, in the subsurface before reaching the streams. Therefore, it is more cost-effective to identify robust areas, where nitrate leaching through the root...... the entire catchment. However, as distributed models often do not include local scale hydrogeological heterogeneities, they are typically not able to make accurate predictions at scales smaller than they are calibrated. We present a framework for assessing nitrate reduction in the subsurface...

  17. eWaterCycle: A high resolution global hydrological model

    van de Giesen, Nick; Bierkens, Marc; Drost, Niels; Hut, Rolf; Sutanudjaja, Edwin

    2014-05-01

    In 2013, the eWaterCycle project was started, which has the ambitious goal to run a high resolution global hydrological model. Starting point was the PCR-GLOBWB built by Utrecht University. The software behind this model will partially be re-engineered in order to enable to run it in a High Performance Computing (HPC) environment. The aim is to have a spatial resolution of 1km x 1km. The idea is also to run the model in real-time and forecasting mode, using data assimilation. An on-demand hydraulic model will be available for detailed flow and flood forecasting in support of navigation and disaster management. The project faces a set of scientific challenges. First, to enable the model to run in a HPC environment, model runs were analyzed to examine on which parts of the program most CPU time was spent. These parts were re-coded in Open MPI to allow for parallel processing. Different parallelization strategies are thinkable. In our case, it was decided to use watershed logic as a first step to distribute the analysis. There is rather limited recent experience with HPC in hydrology and there is much to be learned and adjusted, both on the hydrological modeling side and the computer science side. For example, an interesting early observation was that hydrological models are, due to their localized parameterization, much more memory intensive than models of sister-disciplines such as meteorology and oceanography. Because it would be deadly to have to swap information between CPU and hard drive, memory management becomes crucial. A standard Ensemble Kalman Filter (enKF) would, for example, have excessive memory demands. To circumvent these problems, an alternative to the enKF was developed that produces equivalent results. This presentation shows the most recent results from the model, including a 5km x 5km simulation and a proof of concept for the new data assimilation approach. Finally, some early ideas about financial sustainability of an operational global

  18. The Global Earthquake Model and Disaster Risk Reduction

    Smolka, A. J.

    2015-12-01

    Advanced, reliable and transparent tools and data to assess earthquake risk are inaccessible to most, especially in less developed regions of the world while few, if any, globally accepted standards currently allow a meaningful comparison of risk between places. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a collaborative effort that aims to provide models, datasets and state-of-the-art tools for transparent assessment of earthquake hazard and risk. As part of this goal, GEM and its global network of collaborators have developed the OpenQuake engine (an open-source software for hazard and risk calculations), the OpenQuake platform (a web-based portal making GEM's resources and datasets freely available to all potential users), and a suite of tools to support modelers and other experts in the development of hazard, exposure and vulnerability models. These resources are being used extensively across the world in hazard and risk assessment, from individual practitioners to local and national institutions, and in regional projects to inform disaster risk reduction. Practical examples for how GEM is bridging the gap between science and disaster risk reduction are: - Several countries including Switzerland, Turkey, Italy, Ecuador, Papua-New Guinea and Taiwan (with more to follow) are computing national seismic hazard using the OpenQuake-engine. In some cases these results are used for the definition of actions in building codes. - Technical support, tools and data for the development of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk models for regional projects in South America and Sub-Saharan Africa. - Going beyond physical risk, GEM's scorecard approach evaluates local resilience by bringing together neighborhood/community leaders and the risk reduction community as a basis for designing risk reduction programs at various levels of geography. Actual case studies are Lalitpur in the Kathmandu Valley in Nepal and Quito/Ecuador. In agreement with GEM's collaborative approach, all

  19. Simplifiying global biogeochemistry models to evaluate methane emissions

    Gerber, S.; Alonso-Contes, C.

    2017-12-01

    Process-based models are important tools to quantify wetland methane emissions, particularly also under climate change scenarios, evaluating these models is often cumbersome as they are embedded in larger land-surface models where fluctuating water table and the carbon cycle (including new readily decomposable plant material) are predicted variables. Here, we build on these large scale models but instead of modeling water table and plant productivity we provide values as boundary conditions. In contrast, aerobic and anaerobic decomposition, as well as soil column transport of oxygen and methane are predicted by the model. Because of these simplifications, the model has the potential to be more readily adaptable to the analysis of field-scale data. Here we determine the sensitivity of the model to specific setups, parameter choices, and to boundary conditions in order to determine set-up needs and inform what critical auxiliary variables need to be measured in order to better predict field-scale methane emissions from wetland soils. To that end we performed a global sensitivity analysis that also considers non-linear interactions between processes. The global sensitivity analysis revealed, not surprisingly, that water table dynamics (both mean level and amplitude of fluctuations), and the rate of the carbon cycle (i.e. net primary productivity) are critical determinants of methane emissions. The depth-scale where most of the potential decomposition occurs also affects methane emissions. Different transport mechanisms are compensating each other to some degree: If plant conduits are constrained, methane emissions by diffusive flux and ebullition compensate to some degree, however annual emissions are higher when plants help to bypass methanotrophs in temporally unsaturated upper layers. Finally, while oxygen consumption by plant roots help creating anoxic conditions it has little effect on overall methane emission. Our initial sensitivity analysis helps guiding

  20. The UK Nitrate Time Bomb (Invited)

    Ward, R.; Wang, L.; Stuart, M.; Bloomfield, J.; Gooddy, D.; Lewis, M.; McKenzie, A.

    2013-12-01

    The developed world has benefitted enormously from the intensification of agriculture and the increased availability and use of synthetic fertilizers during the last century. However there has also been unintended adverse impact on the natural environment (water and ecosystems) with nitrate the most significant cause of water pollution and ecosystem damage . Many countries have introduced controls on nitrate, e.g. the European Union's Water Framework and Nitrate Directives, but despite this are continuing to see a serious decline in water quality. The purpose of our research is to investigate and quantify the importance of the unsaturated (vadose) zone pathway and groundwater in contributing to the decline. Understanding nutrient behaviour in the sub-surface environment and, in particular, the time lag between action and improvement is critical to effective management and remediation of nutrient pollution. A readily-transferable process-based model has been used to predict temporal loading of nitrate at the water table across the UK. A time-varying nitrate input function has been developed based on nitrate usage since 1925. Depth to the water table has been calculated from groundwater levels based on regional-scale observations in-filled by interpolated river base levels and vertical unsaturated zone velocities estimated from hydrogeological properties and mapping. The model has been validated using the results of more than 300 unsaturated zone nitrate profiles. Results show that for about 60% of the Chalk - the principal aquifer in the UK - peak nitrate input has yet to reach the water table and concentrations will continue to rise over the next 60 years. The implications are hugely significant especially where environmental objectives must be achieved in much shorter timescales. Current environmental and regulatory management strategies rarely take lag times into account and as a result will be poorly informed, leading to inappropriate controls and conflicts

  1. ACCURACY ASSESSMENT OF RECENT GLOBAL OCEAN TIDE MODELS AROUND ANTARCTICA

    J. Lei

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Due to the coverage limitation of T/P-series altimeters, the lack of bathymetric data under large ice shelves, and the inaccurate definitions of coastlines and grounding lines, the accuracy of ocean tide models around Antarctica is poorer than those in deep oceans. Using tidal measurements from tide gauges, gravimetric data and GPS records, the accuracy of seven state-of-the-art global ocean tide models (DTU10, EOT11a, GOT4.8, FES2012, FES2014, HAMTIDE12, TPXO8 is assessed, as well as the most widely-used conventional model FES2004. Four regions (Antarctic Peninsula region, Amery ice shelf region, Filchner-Ronne ice shelf region and Ross ice shelf region are separately reported. The standard deviations of eight main constituents between the selected models are large in polar regions, especially under the big ice shelves, suggesting that the uncertainty in these regions remain large. Comparisons with in situ tidal measurements show that the most accurate model is TPXO8, and all models show worst performance in Weddell sea and Filchner-Ronne ice shelf regions. The accuracy of tidal predictions around Antarctica is gradually improving.

  2. Accuracy Assessment of Recent Global Ocean Tide Models around Antarctica

    Lei, J.; Li, F.; Zhang, S.; Ke, H.; Zhang, Q.; Li, W.

    2017-09-01

    Due to the coverage limitation of T/P-series altimeters, the lack of bathymetric data under large ice shelves, and the inaccurate definitions of coastlines and grounding lines, the accuracy of ocean tide models around Antarctica is poorer than those in deep oceans. Using tidal measurements from tide gauges, gravimetric data and GPS records, the accuracy of seven state-of-the-art global ocean tide models (DTU10, EOT11a, GOT4.8, FES2012, FES2014, HAMTIDE12, TPXO8) is assessed, as well as the most widely-used conventional model FES2004. Four regions (Antarctic Peninsula region, Amery ice shelf region, Filchner-Ronne ice shelf region and Ross ice shelf region) are separately reported. The standard deviations of eight main constituents between the selected models are large in polar regions, especially under the big ice shelves, suggesting that the uncertainty in these regions remain large. Comparisons with in situ tidal measurements show that the most accurate model is TPXO8, and all models show worst performance in Weddell sea and Filchner-Ronne ice shelf regions. The accuracy of tidal predictions around Antarctica is gradually improving.

  3. A global renewable energy system: A modelling exercise in ETSAP/TIAM

    Føyn, Tullik Helene Ystanes; Karlsson, Kenneth Bernard; Balyk, Olexandr

    2011-01-01

    This paper aims to test the ETSAP2-TIAM global energy system model and to try out how far it can go towards a global 100% renewable energy system with the existing model database. This will show where limits in global resources are met and where limits in the data fed to the model until now are met...

  4. Signal classification using global dynamical models, Part I: Theory

    Kadtke, J.; Kremliovsky, M.

    1996-01-01

    Detection and classification of signals is one of the principal areas of signal processing, and the utilization of nonlinear information has long been considered as a way of improving performance beyond standard linear (e.g. spectral) techniques. Here, we develop a method for using global models of chaotic dynamical systems theory to define a signal classification processing chain, which is sensitive to nonlinear correlations in the data. We use it to demonstrate classification in high noise regimes (negative SNR), and argue that classification probabilities can be directly computed from ensemble statistics in the model coefficient space. We also develop a modification for non-stationary signals (i.e. transients) using non-autonomous ODEs. In Part II of this paper, we demonstrate the analysis on actual open ocean acoustic data from marine biologics. copyright 1996 American Institute of Physics

  5. A Global Modeling Framework for Plasma Kinetics: Development and Applications

    Parsey, Guy Morland

    The modern study of plasmas, and applications thereof, has developed synchronously with com- puter capabilities since the mid-1950s. Complexities inherent to these charged-particle, many- body, systems have resulted in the development of multiple simulation methods (particle-in-cell, fluid, global modeling, etc.) in order to both explain observed phenomena and predict outcomes of plasma applications. Recognizing that different algorithms are chosen to best address specific topics of interest, this thesis centers around the development of an open-source global model frame- work for the focused study of non-equilibrium plasma kinetics. After verification and validation of the framework, it was used to study two physical phenomena: plasma-assisted combustion and the recently proposed optically-pumped rare gas metastable laser. Global models permeate chemistry and plasma science, relying on spatial averaging to focus attention on the dynamics of reaction networks. Defined by a set of species continuity and energy conservation equations, the required data and constructed systems are conceptually similar across most applications, providing a light platform for exploratory and result-search parameter scan- ning. Unfortunately, it is common practice for custom code to be developed for each application-- an enormous duplication of effort which negatively affects the quality of the software produced. Presented herein, the Python-based Kinetic Global Modeling framework (KGMf) was designed to support all modeling phases: collection and analysis of reaction data, construction of an exportable system of model ODEs, and a platform for interactive evaluation and post-processing analysis. A symbolic ODE system is constructed for interactive manipulation and generation of a Jacobian, both of which are compiled as operation-optimized C-code. Plasma-assisted combustion and ignition (PAC/PAI) embody the modernization of burning fuel by opening up new avenues of control and optimization

  6. Investigation of Global Imbalances Based on a Gravity Model

    Hyun-Hoon Lee

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Using the US Treasury International Capital (TIC data, this paper attempts to analyze the size and trend of foreign investment in the U.S. in the form of equities, bonds and bank lending during the period of 2001-2007. In addition, this paper assesses the determinants of foreign investment in the U.S., using the financial gravity model which includes an East Asian dummy as an explanatory variable. The results show that most East Asian countries have invested more in the U.S. than the optimal level suggested by the gravity model. Such an over-investment is more evident in long-term bond investment than in equity investment or bank lending. Thus, the results confirm that global imbalance does exist between East Asian countries and the U.S.

  7. Isotopes as validation tools for global climate models

    Henderson-Sellers, A.

    2001-01-01

    Global Climate Models (GCMs) are the predominant tool with which we predict the future climate. In order that people can have confidence in such predictions, GCMs require validation. As almost every available item of meteorological data has been exploited in the construction and tuning of GCMs to date, independent validation is very difficult. This paper explores the use of isotopes as a novel and fully independent means of evaluating GCMs. The focus is the Amazon Basin which has a long history of isotope collection and analysis and also of climate modelling: both having been reported for over thirty years. Careful consideration of the results of GCM simulations of Amazonian deforestation and climate change suggests that the recent stable isotope record is more consistent with the predicted effects of greenhouse warming, possibly combined with forest removal, than with GCM predictions of the effects of deforestation alone

  8. Modeling of the global carbon cycle - isotopic data requirements

    Ciais, P.

    1994-01-01

    Isotopes are powerful tools to constrain carbon cycle models. For example, the combinations of the CO 2 and the 13 C budget allows to calculate the net-carbon fluxes between atmosphere, ocean, and biosphere. Observations of natural and bomb-produced radiocarbon allow to estimate gross carbon exchange fluxes between different reservoirs and to deduce time scales of carbon overturning in important reservoirs. 18 O in CO 2 is potentially a tool to make the deconvolution of C fluxes within the land biosphere (assimilation vs respirations). The scope of this article is to identify gaps in our present knowledge about isotopes in the light of their use as constraint for the global carbon cycle. In the following we will present a list of some future data requirements for carbon cycle models. (authors)

  9. Assessing the impacts of future climate conditions on the effectiveness of winter cover crops in reducing nitrate loads into the Chesapeake Bay Watersheds using SWAT model

    Winter cover crops (WCCs) have been widely implemented in the Coastal Plain of the Chesapeake Bay watershed (CBW) due to their high effectiveness at reducing nitrate loads. However, future climate conditions (FCCs) are expected to exacerbate water quality degradation in the CBW by increasing nitrat...

  10. Towards a Global Unified Model of Europa's Tenuous Atmosphere

    Plainaki, Christina; Cassidy, Tim A.; Shematovich, Valery I.; Milillo, Anna; Wurz, Peter; Vorburger, Audrey; Roth, Lorenz; Galli, André; Rubin, Martin; Blöcker, Aljona; Brandt, Pontus C.; Crary, Frank; Dandouras, Iannis; Jia, Xianzhe; Grassi, Davide; Hartogh, Paul; Lucchetti, Alice; McGrath, Melissa; Mangano, Valeria; Mura, Alessandro; Orsini, Stefano; Paranicas, Chris; Radioti, Aikaterini; Retherford, Kurt D.; Saur, Joachim; Teolis, Ben

    2018-02-01

    Despite the numerous modeling efforts of the past, our knowledge on the radiation-induced physical and chemical processes in Europa's tenuous atmosphere and on the exchange of material between the moon's surface and Jupiter's magnetosphere remains limited. In lack of an adequate number of in situ observations, the existence of a wide variety of models based on different scenarios and considerations has resulted in a fragmentary understanding of the interactions of the magnetospheric ion population with both the moon's icy surface and neutral gas envelope. Models show large discrepancy in the source and loss rates of the different constituents as well as in the determination of the spatial distribution of the atmosphere and its variation with time. The existence of several models based on very different approaches highlights the need of a detailed comparison among them with the final goal of developing a unified model of Europa's tenuous atmosphere. The availability to the science community of such a model could be of particular interest in view of the planning of the future mission observations (e.g., ESA's JUpiter ICy moons Explorer (JUICE) mission, and NASA's Europa Clipper mission). We review the existing models of Europa's tenuous atmosphere and discuss each of their derived characteristics of the neutral environment. We also discuss discrepancies among different models and the assumptions of the plasma environment in the vicinity of Europa. A summary of the existing observations of both the neutral and the plasma environments at Europa is also presented. The characteristics of a global unified model of the tenuous atmosphere are, then, discussed. Finally, we identify needed future experimental work in laboratories and propose some suitable observation strategies for upcoming missions.

  11. Genetic basis for nitrate resistance in Desulfovibrio strains

    Hannah eKorte

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Nitrate is an inhibitor of sulfate-reducing bacteria (SRB. In petroleum production sites, amendments of nitrate and nitrite are used to prevent SRB production of sulfide that causes souring of oil wells. A better understanding of nitrate stress responses in the model SRB, Desulfovibrio vulgaris Hildenborough and Desulfovibrio alaskensis G20, will strengthen predictions of environmental outcomes. Nitrate inhibition of SRB has historically been considered to result from the generation of small amounts of nitrite, to which SRB are quite sensitive. Here we explored the possibility that nitrate might inhibit SRB by a mechanism other than through nitrite inhibition. We found that nitrate-stressed D. vulgaris cultures grown in lactate-sulfate conditions eventually grew in the presence of high concentrations of nitrate, and their resistance continued through several subcultures. Nitrate consumption was not detected over the course of the experiment, suggesting adaptation to nitrate. With high-throughput genetic approaches employing TnLE-seq for D. vulgaris and a pooled mutant library of D. alaskensis, we determined the fitness of many transposon mutants of both organisms in nitrate stress conditions. We found that several mutants, including homologs present in both strains, had a greatly increased ability to grow in the presence of nitrate but not nitrite. The mutated genes conferring nitrate resistance included the gene encoding the putative Rex transcriptional regulator (DVU0916/Dde_2702, as well as a cluster of genes (DVU0251-DVU0245/Dde_0597-Dde_0605 that is poorly annotated. Follow-up studies with individual D. vulgaris transposon and deletion mutants confirmed high-throughput results. We conclude that, in D. vulgaris and D. alaskensis, nitrate resistance in wild-type cultures is likely conferred by spontaneous mutations. Furthermore, the mechanisms that confer nitrate resistance may be different from those that confer nitrite resistance.

  12. Using Green's Functions to initialize and adjust a global, eddying ocean biogeochemistry general circulation model

    Brix, H.; Menemenlis, D.; Hill, C.; Dutkiewicz, S.; Jahn, O.; Wang, D.; Bowman, K.; Zhang, H.

    2015-11-01

    The NASA Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) Flux Project aims to attribute changes in the atmospheric accumulation of carbon dioxide to spatially resolved fluxes by utilizing the full suite of NASA data, models, and assimilation capabilities. For the oceanic part of this project, we introduce ECCO2-Darwin, a new ocean biogeochemistry general circulation model based on combining the following pre-existing components: (i) a full-depth, eddying, global-ocean configuration of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm), (ii) an adjoint-method-based estimate of ocean circulation from the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Phase II (ECCO2) project, (iii) the MIT ecosystem model "Darwin", and (iv) a marine carbon chemistry model. Air-sea gas exchange coefficients and initial conditions of dissolved inorganic carbon, alkalinity, and oxygen are adjusted using a Green's Functions approach in order to optimize modeled air-sea CO2 fluxes. Data constraints include observations of carbon dioxide partial pressure (pCO2) for 2009-2010, global air-sea CO2 flux estimates, and the seasonal cycle of the Takahashi et al. (2009) Atlas. The model sensitivity experiments (or Green's Functions) include simulations that start from different initial conditions as well as experiments that perturb air-sea gas exchange parameters and the ratio of particulate inorganic to organic carbon. The Green's Functions approach yields a linear combination of these sensitivity experiments that minimizes model-data differences. The resulting initial conditions and gas exchange coefficients are then used to integrate the ECCO2-Darwin model forward. Despite the small number (six) of control parameters, the adjusted simulation is significantly closer to the data constraints (37% cost function reduction, i.e., reduction in the model-data difference, relative to the baseline simulation) and to independent observations (e.g., alkalinity). The adjusted air-sea gas

  13. Management of Nitrate m Groundwater: A Simulation Study

    M. Ahmed

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available Agriculture may cause nitrate and other chemicals to enter into groundwater systems. Nitrate in drinking water is considered a health hazard. A study was conducted to assess the extent of nitrate pollution of groundwater caused by agriculture and to evaluate the possibility of using the LEACHN model to manage nitrate entry into groundwater of agricultural areas of Al-Batinah, which is the most important agricultural region of Oman. Groundwater samples were collected and analyzed to assess the problem and to detect possible trends. Soil sampling and analyses were done to demonstrate the difference in the nitrate concentration in agricultural and non-agricultural soils. A questionnaire survey was conducted to gather information on agricultural practices, fertilizer input, and other possible sources of nitrate pollution. Results from the study show that 23% of groundwater samples have a concentration of nitrate-N concentration of 10 mg/l and 34% samples exceed 8 mg/l. Agricultural soils have higher levels of nitrate compared to non- agricultural soils. Results also demonstrate that nitrate levels in groundwater in Al-Batinah are rising. Application of the ‘LEACHN’ model demonstrated its suitability for use as a management tool to reduce nitrate leaching to groundwater by controlling fertilizer and water input.

  14. Challenges and Opportunities in Modeling of the Global Atmosphere

    Janjic, Zavisa; Djurdjevic, Vladimir; Vasic, Ratko

    2016-04-01

    Modeling paradigms on global scales may need to be reconsidered in order to better utilize the power of massively parallel processing. For high computational efficiency with distributed memory, each core should work on a small subdomain of the full integration domain, and exchange only few rows of halo data with the neighbouring cores. Note that the described scenario strongly favors horizontally local discretizations. This is relatively easy to achieve in regional models. However, the spherical geometry complicates the problem. The latitude-longitude grid with local in space and explicit in time differencing has been an early choice and remained in use ever since. The problem with this method is that the grid size in the longitudinal direction tends to zero as the poles are approached. So, in addition to having unnecessarily high resolution near the poles, polar filtering has to be applied in order to use a time step of a reasonable size. However, the polar filtering requires transpositions involving extra communications as well as more computations. The spectral transform method and the semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian schemes opened the way for application of spectral representation. With some variations, such techniques are currently dominating in global models. Unfortunately, the horizontal non-locality is inherent to the spectral representation and implicit time differencing, which inhibits scaling on a large number of cores. In this respect the lat-lon grid with polar filtering is a step in the right direction, particularly at high resolutions where the Legendre transforms become increasingly expensive. Other grids with reduced variability of grid distances, such as various versions of the cubed sphere and the hexagonal/pentagonal ("soccer ball") grids, were proposed almost fifty years ago. However, on these grids, large-scale (wavenumber 4 and 5) fictitious solutions ("grid imprinting") with significant amplitudes can develop. Due to their large scales, that

  15. Using Models to Inform Policy: Insights from Modeling the Complexities of Global Polio Eradication

    Thompson, Kimberly M.

    Drawing on over 20 years of experience modeling risks in complex systems, this talk will challenge SBP participants to develop models that provide timely and useful answers to critical policy questions when decision makers need them. The talk will include reflections on the opportunities and challenges associated with developing integrated models for complex problems and communicating their results effectively. Dr. Thompson will focus the talk largely on collaborative modeling related to global polio eradication and the application of system dynamics tools. After successful global eradication of wild polioviruses, live polioviruses will still present risks that could potentially lead to paralytic polio cases. This talk will present the insights of efforts to use integrated dynamic, probabilistic risk, decision, and economic models to address critical policy questions related to managing global polio risks. Using a dynamic disease transmission model combined with probabilistic model inputs that characterize uncertainty for a stratified world to account for variability, we find that global health leaders will face some difficult choices, but that they can take actions that will manage the risks effectively. The talk will emphasize the need for true collaboration between modelers and subject matter experts, and the importance of working with decision makers as partners to ensure the development of useful models that actually get used.

  16. Formulation of an ocean model for global climate simulations

    S. M. Griffies

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper summarizes the formulation of the ocean component to the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's (GFDL climate model used for the 4th IPCC Assessment (AR4 of global climate change. In particular, it reviews the numerical schemes and physical parameterizations that make up an ocean climate model and how these schemes are pieced together for use in a state-of-the-art climate model. Features of the model described here include the following: (1 tripolar grid to resolve the Arctic Ocean without polar filtering, (2 partial bottom step representation of topography to better represent topographically influenced advective and wave processes, (3 more accurate equation of state, (4 three-dimensional flux limited tracer advection to reduce overshoots and undershoots, (5 incorporation of regional climatological variability in shortwave penetration, (6 neutral physics parameterization for representation of the pathways of tracer transport, (7 staggered time stepping for tracer conservation and numerical efficiency, (8 anisotropic horizontal viscosities for representation of equatorial currents, (9 parameterization of exchange with marginal seas, (10 incorporation of a free surface that accomodates a dynamic ice model and wave propagation, (11 transport of water across the ocean free surface to eliminate unphysical ``virtual tracer flux' methods, (12 parameterization of tidal mixing on continental shelves. We also present preliminary analyses of two particularly important sensitivities isolated during the development process, namely the details of how parameterized subgridscale eddies transport momentum and tracers.

  17. Synoptic, Global Mhd Model For The Solar Corona

    Cohen, Ofer; Sokolov, I. V.; Roussev, I. I.; Gombosi, T. I.

    2007-05-01

    The common techniques for mimic the solar corona heating and the solar wind acceleration in global MHD models are as follow. 1) Additional terms in the momentum and energy equations derived from the WKB approximation for the Alfv’en wave turbulence; 2) some empirical heat source in the energy equation; 3) a non-uniform distribution of the polytropic index, γ, used in the energy equation. In our model, we choose the latter approach. However, in order to get a more realistic distribution of γ, we use the empirical Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model to constrain the MHD solution. The WSA model provides the distribution of the asymptotic solar wind speed from the potential field approximation; therefore it also provides the distribution of the kinetic energy. Assuming that far from the Sun the total energy is dominated by the energy of the bulk motion and assuming the conservation of the Bernoulli integral, we can trace the total energy along a magnetic field line to the solar surface. On the surface the gravity is known and the kinetic energy is negligible. Therefore, we can get the surface distribution of γ as a function of the final speed originating from this point. By interpolation γ to spherically uniform value on the source surface, we use this spatial distribution of γ in the energy equation to obtain a self-consistent, steady state MHD solution for the solar corona. We present the model result for different Carrington Rotations.

  18. A Global Modeling Study on Carbonaceous Aerosol Microphysical Characteristics and Radiative Effects

    Bauer, S. E.; Menon, S.; Koch, D.; Bond, T. C.; Tsigaridis, K.

    2010-01-01

    Recently, attention has been drawn towards black carbon aerosols as a short-term climate warming mitigation candidate. However the global and regional impacts of the direct, indirect and semi-direct aerosol effects are highly uncertain, due to the complex nature of aerosol evolution and the way that mixed, aged aerosols interact with clouds and radiation. A detailed aerosol microphysical scheme, MATRIX, embedded within the GISS climate model is used in this study to present a quantitative assessment of the impact of microphysical processes involving black carbon, such as emission size distributions and optical properties on aerosol cloud activation and radiative effects. Our best estimate for net direct and indirect aerosol radiative flux change between 1750 and 2000 is -0.56 W/m2. However, the direct and indirect aerosol effects are quite sensitive to the black and organic carbon size distribution and consequential mixing state. The net radiative flux change can vary between -0.32 to -0.75 W/m2 depending on these carbonaceous particle properties at emission. Taking into account internally mixed black carbon particles let us simulate correct aerosol absorption. Absorption of black carbon aerosols is amplified by sulfate and nitrate coatings and, even more strongly, by organic coatings. Black carbon mitigation scenarios generally showed reduced radiative fluxeswhen sources with a large proportion of black carbon, such as diesel, are reduced; however reducing sources with a larger organic carbon component as well, such as bio-fuels, does not necessarily lead to a reduction in positive radiative flux.

  19. The CAFE model: A net production model for global ocean phytoplankton

    Silsbe, Greg M.; Behrenfeld, Michael J.; Halsey, Kimberly H.; Milligan, Allen J.; Westberry, Toby K.

    2016-12-01

    The Carbon, Absorption, and Fluorescence Euphotic-resolving (CAFE) net primary production model is an adaptable framework for advancing global ocean productivity assessments by exploiting state-of-the-art satellite ocean color analyses and addressing key physiological and ecological attributes of phytoplankton. Here we present the first implementation of the CAFE model that incorporates inherent optical properties derived from ocean color measurements into a mechanistic and accurate model of phytoplankton growth rates (μ) and net phytoplankton production (NPP). The CAFE model calculates NPP as the product of energy absorption (QPAR), and the efficiency (ϕμ) by which absorbed energy is converted into carbon biomass (CPhyto), while μ is calculated as NPP normalized to CPhyto. The CAFE model performance is evaluated alongside 21 other NPP models against a spatially robust and globally representative set of direct NPP measurements. This analysis demonstrates that the CAFE model explains the greatest amount of variance and has the lowest model bias relative to other NPP models analyzed with this data set. Global oceanic NPP from the CAFE model (52 Pg C m-2 yr-1) and mean division rates (0.34 day-1) are derived from climatological satellite data (2002-2014). This manuscript discusses and validates individual CAFE model parameters (e.g., QPAR and ϕμ), provides detailed sensitivity analyses, and compares the CAFE model results and parameterization to other widely cited models.

  20. Accelerating the Global Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System (GNAQPMS) model on Intel Xeon Phi processors

    Wang, Hui; Chen, Huansheng; Wu, Qizhong; Lin, Junming; Chen, Xueshun; Xie, Xinwei; Wang, Rongrong; Tang, Xiao; Wang, Zifa

    2017-01-01

    The GNAQPMS model is the global version of the Nested Air Quality Prediction Modelling System (NAQPMS), which is a multi-scale chemical transport model used for air quality forecast and atmospheric environmental research. In this study, we present our work of porting and optimizing the GNAQPMS model on the second generation Intel Xeon Phi processor codename “Knights Landing” (KNL). Compared with the first generation Xeon Phi coprocessor, KNL introduced many new hardware features such as a boo...

  1. Development and evaluation of global radon transport model

    Kojima, H.; Nagano, K.

    2003-01-01

    The radioactive noble gas Radon-222 ( 222 Rn) is chemically inert and is removed only by radioactive decay (T1/2=3.8 d). Its primary source is uniformly distributed over the continents and the ocean represents a secondary source of atmospheric 222 Rn. The strong contrast in source strength between continents and the ocean makes 222 Rn an ideal marker of continental air masses. Because of its simple properties, the temporal and spatial distribution of 222 Rn in the troposphere is straightforward to simulate by means of atmospheric transport models. The simulation provides an intuitive visualization of the complex transport characteristics and more definite proof of phenomenon. In this paper, we present the results of an exploratory study, in which we investigated the performance of a three-dimensional transport model of the global troposphere in simulating the long range transport of 222 Rn. The transport equation has been solved by a numerical procedure based on some boundary conditions. The model structure which we have originally developed, has a horizontal resolution of 2.5deg in latitude and 2.5deg in longitude, and 10 layers in the vertical dimension. The basic computational time step used in the model runs was set to 5 min. The simulations described in this article were performed by means of a transport model driven by global objective analytical data of a time resolution of 6 h, supplied by the Japan Meteorological Agency. We focus on the west of North Pacific Ocean, were the influence of air pollution from an Asian Continent and the Japan Islands was received. For simulation experiments, radon data from some shipboard measurements on the North Pacific Ocean have been used in the present study. Figure shows time series of model prediction with different latitude distributions of radon exhalation rate and measured radon data. We find that our model consistently produce the observation. We will discuss the characteristics of the temporal and special

  2. A parameterization of the heterogeneous hydrolysis of N2O5 for mass-based aerosol models: improvement of particulate nitrate prediction

    Chen, Ying; Wolke, Ralf; Ran, Liang; Birmili, Wolfram; Spindler, Gerald; Schröder, Wolfram; Su, Hang; Cheng, Yafang; Tegen, Ina; Wiedensohler, Alfred

    2018-01-01

    The heterogeneous hydrolysis of N2O5 on the surface of deliquescent aerosol leads to HNO3 formation and acts as a major sink of NOx in the atmosphere during night-time. The reaction constant of this heterogeneous hydrolysis is determined by temperature (T), relative humidity (RH), aerosol particle composition, and the surface area concentration (S). However, these parameters were not comprehensively considered in the parameterization of the heterogeneous hydrolysis of N2O5 in previous mass-based 3-D aerosol modelling studies. In this investigation, we propose a sophisticated parameterization (NewN2O5) of N2O5 heterogeneous hydrolysis with respect to T, RH, aerosol particle compositions, and S based on laboratory experiments. We evaluated closure between NewN2O5 and a state-of-the-art parameterization based on a sectional aerosol treatment. The comparison showed a good linear relationship (R = 0.91) between these two parameterizations. NewN2O5 was incorporated into a 3-D fully online coupled model, COSMO-MUSCAT, with the mass-based aerosol treatment. As a case study, we used the data from the HOPE Melpitz campaign (10-25 September 2013) to validate model performance. Here, we investigated the improvement of nitrate prediction over western and central Europe. The modelled particulate nitrate mass concentrations ([NO3-]) were validated by filter measurements over Germany (Neuglobsow, Schmücke, Zingst, and Melpitz). The modelled [NO3-] was significantly overestimated for this period by a factor of 5-19, with the corrected NH3 emissions (reduced by 50 %) and the original parameterization of N2O5 heterogeneous hydrolysis. The NewN2O5 significantly reduces the overestimation of [NO3-] by ˜ 35 %. Particularly, the overestimation factor was reduced to approximately 1.4 in our case study (12, 17-18 and 25 September 2013) when [NO3-] was dominated by local chemical formations. In our case, the suppression of organic coating was negligible over western and central Europe

  3. Towards accounting for dissolved iron speciation in global ocean models

    A. Tagliabue

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The trace metal iron (Fe is now routinely included in state-of-the-art ocean general circulation and biogeochemistry models (OGCBMs because of its key role as a limiting nutrient in regions of the world ocean important for carbon cycling and air-sea CO2 exchange. However, the complexities of the seawater Fe cycle, which impact its speciation and bioavailability, are simplified in such OGCBMs due to gaps in understanding and to avoid high computational costs. In a similar fashion to inorganic carbon speciation, we outline a means by which the complex speciation of Fe can be included in global OGCBMs in a reasonably cost-effective manner. We construct an Fe speciation model based on hypothesised relationships between rate constants and environmental variables (temperature, light, oxygen, pH, salinity and assumptions regarding the binding strengths of Fe complexing organic ligands and test hypotheses regarding their distributions. As a result, we find that the global distribution of different Fe species is tightly controlled by spatio-temporal environmental variability and the distribution of Fe binding ligands. Impacts on bioavailable Fe are highly sensitive to assumptions regarding which Fe species are bioavailable and how those species vary in space and time. When forced by representations of future ocean circulation and climate we find large changes to the speciation of Fe governed by pH mediated changes to redox kinetics. We speculate that these changes may exert selective pressure on phytoplankton Fe uptake strategies in the future ocean. In future work, more information on the sources and sinks of ocean Fe ligands, their bioavailability, the cycling of colloidal Fe species and kinetics of Fe-surface coordination reactions would be invaluable. We hope our modeling approach can provide a means by which new observations of Fe speciation can be tested against hypotheses of the processes present in governing the ocean Fe cycle in an

  4. Global Modeling of Internal Tides Within an Eddying Ocean General Circulation Model

    2012-05-31

    paper aooo not violate: any Oisclosur~,;·of trade• secrets or suggestions of outside individuals on::oncams whiCh have· beE !n communicated 1.o...fully three- dimensional global ocean circulation model, we will provide an internal tide capability everywhere, and allow nested models to include

  5. A global predictive model of carbon in mangrove soils

    Jardine, Sunny L; Siikamäki, Juha V

    2014-01-01

    Mangroves are among the most threatened and rapidly vanishing natural environments worldwide. They provide a wide range of ecosystem services and have recently become known for their exceptional capacity to store carbon. Research shows that mangrove conservation may be a low-cost means of reducing CO 2 emissions. Accordingly, there is growing interest in developing market mechanisms to credit mangrove conservation projects for associated CO 2 emissions reductions. These efforts depend on robust and readily applicable, but currently unavailable, localized estimates of soil carbon. Here, we use over 900 soil carbon measurements, collected in 28 countries by 61 independent studies, to develop a global predictive model for mangrove soil carbon. Using climatological and locational data as predictors, we explore several predictive modeling alternatives, including machine-learning methods. With our predictive model, we construct a global dataset of estimated soil carbon concentrations and stocks on a high-resolution grid (5 arc min). We estimate that the global mangrove soil carbon stock is 5.00 ± 0.94 Pg C (assuming a 1 meter soil depth) and find this stock is highly variable over space. The amount of carbon per hectare in the world’s most carbon-rich mangroves (approximately 703 ± 38 Mg C ha −1 ) is roughly a 2.6 ± 0.14 times the amount of carbon per hectare in the world’s most carbon-poor mangroves (approximately 272 ± 49 Mg C ha −1 ). Considerable within country variation in mangrove soil carbon also exists. In Indonesia, the country with the largest mangrove soil carbon stock, we estimate that the most carbon-rich mangroves contain 1.5 ± 0.12 times as much carbon per hectare as the most carbon-poor mangroves. Our results can aid in evaluating benefits from mangrove conservation and designing mangrove conservation policy. Additionally, the results can be used to project changes in mangrove soil carbon stocks based on changing climatological

  6. A global predictive model of carbon in mangrove soils

    Jardine, Sunny L.; Siikamäki, Juha V.

    2014-10-01

    Mangroves are among the most threatened and rapidly vanishing natural environments worldwide. They provide a wide range of ecosystem services and have recently become known for their exceptional capacity to store carbon. Research shows that mangrove conservation may be a low-cost means of reducing CO2 emissions. Accordingly, there is growing interest in developing market mechanisms to credit mangrove conservation projects for associated CO2 emissions reductions. These efforts depend on robust and readily applicable, but currently unavailable, localized estimates of soil carbon. Here, we use over 900 soil carbon measurements, collected in 28 countries by 61 independent studies, to develop a global predictive model for mangrove soil carbon. Using climatological and locational data as predictors, we explore several predictive modeling alternatives, including machine-learning methods. With our predictive model, we construct a global dataset of estimated soil carbon concentrations and stocks on a high-resolution grid (5 arc min). We estimate that the global mangrove soil carbon stock is 5.00 ± 0.94 Pg C (assuming a 1 meter soil depth) and find this stock is highly variable over space. The amount of carbon per hectare in the world’s most carbon-rich mangroves (approximately 703 ± 38 Mg C ha-1) is roughly a 2.6 ± 0.14 times the amount of carbon per hectare in the world’s most carbon-poor mangroves (approximately 272 ± 49 Mg C ha-1). Considerable within country variation in mangrove soil carbon also exists. In Indonesia, the country with the largest mangrove soil carbon stock, we estimate that the most carbon-rich mangroves contain 1.5 ± 0.12 times as much carbon per hectare as the most carbon-poor mangroves. Our results can aid in evaluating benefits from mangrove conservation and designing mangrove conservation policy. Additionally, the results can be used to project changes in mangrove soil carbon stocks based on changing climatological predictors, e.g. to

  7. California Wintertime Precipitation in Regional and Global Climate Models

    Caldwell, P M

    2009-04-27

    In this paper, wintertime precipitation from a variety of observational datasets, regional climate models (RCMs), and general circulation models (GCMs) is averaged over the state of California (CA) and compared. Several averaging methodologies are considered and all are found to give similar values when model grid spacing is less than 3{sup o}. This suggests that CA is a reasonable size for regional intercomparisons using modern GCMs. Results show that reanalysis-forced RCMs tend to significantly overpredict CA precipitation. This appears to be due mainly to overprediction of extreme events; RCM precipitation frequency is generally underpredicted. Overprediction is also reflected in wintertime precipitation variability, which tends to be too high for RCMs on both daily and interannual scales. Wintertime precipitation in most (but not all) GCMs is underestimated. This is in contrast to previous studies based on global blended gauge/satellite observations which are shown here to underestimate precipitation relative to higher-resolution gauge-only datasets. Several GCMs provide reasonable daily precipitation distributions, a trait which doesn't seem tied to model resolution. GCM daily and interannual variability is generally underpredicted.

  8. Global fits of GUT-scale SUSY models with GAMBIT

    Athron, Peter; Balázs, Csaba; Bringmann, Torsten; Buckley, Andy; Chrząszcz, Marcin; Conrad, Jan; Cornell, Jonathan M.; Dal, Lars A.; Edsjö, Joakim; Farmer, Ben; Jackson, Paul; Krislock, Abram; Kvellestad, Anders; Mahmoudi, Farvah; Martinez, Gregory D.; Putze, Antje; Raklev, Are; Rogan, Christopher; de Austri, Roberto Ruiz; Saavedra, Aldo; Savage, Christopher; Scott, Pat; Serra, Nicola; Weniger, Christoph; White, Martin

    2017-12-01

    We present the most comprehensive global fits to date of three supersymmetric models motivated by grand unification: the constrained minimal supersymmetric standard model (CMSSM), and its Non-Universal Higgs Mass generalisations NUHM1 and NUHM2. We include likelihoods from a number of direct and indirect dark matter searches, a large collection of electroweak precision and flavour observables, direct searches for supersymmetry at LEP and Runs I and II of the LHC, and constraints from Higgs observables. Our analysis improves on existing results not only in terms of the number of included observables, but also in the level of detail with which we treat them, our sampling techniques for scanning the parameter space, and our treatment of nuisance parameters. We show that stau co-annihilation is now ruled out in the CMSSM at more than 95% confidence. Stop co-annihilation turns out to be one of the most promising mechanisms for achieving an appropriate relic density of dark matter in all three models, whilst avoiding all other constraints. We find high-likelihood regions of parameter space featuring light stops and charginos, making them potentially detectable in the near future at the LHC. We also show that tonne-scale direct detection will play a largely complementary role, probing large parts of the remaining viable parameter space, including essentially all models with multi-TeV neutralinos.

  9. Global fits of GUT-scale SUSY models with GAMBIT

    Athron, Peter [Monash University, School of Physics and Astronomy, Melbourne, VIC (Australia); Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Particle Physics at the Tera-scale (Australia); Balazs, Csaba [Monash University, School of Physics and Astronomy, Melbourne, VIC (Australia); Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Particle Physics at the Tera-scale (Australia); Bringmann, Torsten; Dal, Lars A.; Krislock, Abram; Raklev, Are [University of Oslo, Department of Physics, Oslo (Norway); Buckley, Andy [University of Glasgow, SUPA, School of Physics and Astronomy, Glasgow (United Kingdom); Chrzaszcz, Marcin [Universitaet Zuerich, Physik-Institut, Zurich (Switzerland); H. Niewodniczanski Institute of Nuclear Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Krakow (Poland); Conrad, Jan; Edsjoe, Joakim; Farmer, Ben [AlbaNova University Centre, Oskar Klein Centre for Cosmoparticle Physics, Stockholm (Sweden); Stockholm University, Department of Physics, Stockholm (Sweden); Cornell, Jonathan M. [McGill University, Department of Physics, Montreal, QC (Canada); Jackson, Paul; White, Martin [Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Particle Physics at the Tera-scale (Australia); University of Adelaide, Department of Physics, Adelaide, SA (Australia); Kvellestad, Anders; Savage, Christopher [NORDITA, Stockholm (Sweden); Mahmoudi, Farvah [Univ Lyon, Univ Lyon 1, CNRS, ENS de Lyon, Centre de Recherche Astrophysique de Lyon UMR5574, Saint-Genis-Laval (France); Theoretical Physics Department, CERN, Geneva (Switzerland); Martinez, Gregory D. [University of California, Physics and Astronomy Department, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Putze, Antje [LAPTh, Universite de Savoie, CNRS, Annecy-le-Vieux (France); Rogan, Christopher [Harvard University, Department of Physics, Cambridge, MA (United States); Ruiz de Austri, Roberto [IFIC-UV/CSIC, Instituto de Fisica Corpuscular, Valencia (Spain); Saavedra, Aldo [Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Particle Physics at the Tera-scale (Australia); The University of Sydney, Faculty of Engineering and Information Technologies, Centre for Translational Data Science, School of Physics, Camperdown, NSW (Australia); Scott, Pat [Imperial College London, Department of Physics, Blackett Laboratory, London (United Kingdom); Serra, Nicola [Universitaet Zuerich, Physik-Institut, Zurich (Switzerland); Weniger, Christoph [University of Amsterdam, GRAPPA, Institute of Physics, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Collaboration: The GAMBIT Collaboration

    2017-12-15

    We present the most comprehensive global fits to date of three supersymmetric models motivated by grand unification: the constrained minimal supersymmetric standard model (CMSSM), and its Non-Universal Higgs Mass generalisations NUHM1 and NUHM2. We include likelihoods from a number of direct and indirect dark matter searches, a large collection of electroweak precision and flavour observables, direct searches for supersymmetry at LEP and Runs I and II of the LHC, and constraints from Higgs observables. Our analysis improves on existing results not only in terms of the number of included observables, but also in the level of detail with which we treat them, our sampling techniques for scanning the parameter space, and our treatment of nuisance parameters. We show that stau co-annihilation is now ruled out in the CMSSM at more than 95% confidence. Stop co-annihilation turns out to be one of the most promising mechanisms for achieving an appropriate relic density of dark matter in all three models, whilst avoiding all other constraints. We find high-likelihood regions of parameter space featuring light stops and charginos, making them potentially detectable in the near future at the LHC. We also show that tonne-scale direct detection will play a largely complementary role, probing large parts of the remaining viable parameter space, including essentially all models with multi-TeV neutralinos. (orig.)

  10. Revisited global drift fluid model for linear devices

    Reiser, Dirk

    2012-01-01

    The problem of energy conserving global drift fluid simulations is revisited. It is found that for the case of cylindrical plasmas in a homogenous magnetic field, a straightforward reformulation is possible avoiding simplifications leading to energetic inconsistencies. The particular new feature is the rigorous treatment of the polarisation drift by a generalization of the vorticity equation. The resulting set of model equations contains previous formulations as limiting cases and is suitable for efficient numerical techniques. Examples of applications on studies of plasma blobs and its impact on plasma target interaction are presented. The numerical studies focus on the appearance of plasma blobs and intermittent transport and its consequences on the release of sputtered target materials in the plasma. Intermittent expulsion of particles in radial direction can be observed and it is found that although the neutrals released from the target show strong fluctuations in their propagation into the plasma column, the overall effect on time averaged profiles is negligible for the conditions considered. In addition, the numerical simulations are utilised to perform an a-posteriori assessment of the magnitude of energetic inconsistencies in previously used simplified models. It is found that certain popular approximations, in particular by the use of simplified vorticity equations, do not significantly affect energetics. However, popular model simplifications with respect to parallel advection are found to provide significant deterioration of the model consistency.

  11. Development of a forecast model for global air traffic emissions

    Schaefer, Martin

    2012-07-01

    The thesis describes the methodology and results of a simulation model that quantifies fuel consumption and emissions of civil air traffic. Besides covering historical emissions, the model aims at forecasting emissions in the medium-term future. For this purpose, simulation models of aircraft and engine types are used in combination with a database of global flight movements and assumptions about traffic growth, fleet rollover and operational aspects. Results from an application of the model include emissions of scheduled air traffic for the years 2000 to 2010 as well as forecasted emissions until the year 2030. In a baseline scenario of the forecast, input assumptions (e.g. traffic growth rates) are in line with predictions by the aircraft industry. Considering the effects of advanced technologies of the short-term and medium-term future, the forecast focusses on fuel consumption and emissions of nitric oxides. Calculations for historical air traffic additionally cover emissions of carbon monoxide, unburned hydrocarbons and soot. Results are validated against reference data including studies by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and simulation results from international research projects. (orig.)

  12. The Glacial BuzzSaw, Isostasy, and Global Crustal Models

    Levander, A.; Oncken, O.; Niu, F.

    2015-12-01

    The glacial buzzsaw hypothesis predicts that maximum elevations in orogens at high latitudes are depressed relative to temperate latitudes, as maximum elevation and hypsography of glaciated orogens are functions of the glacial equilibrium line altitude (ELA) and the modern and last glacial maximum (LGM) snowlines. As a consequence crustal thickness, density, or both must change with increasing latitude to maintain isostatic balance. For Airy compensation crustal thickness should decrease toward polar latitudes, whereas for Pratt compensation crustal densities should increase. For similar convergence rates, higher latitude orogens should have higher grade, and presumably higher density rocks in the crustal column due to more efficient glacial erosion. We have examined a number of global and regional crustal models to see if these predictions appear in the models. Crustal thickness is straightforward to examine, crustal density less so. The different crustal models generally agree with one another, but do show some major differences. We used a standard tectonic classification scheme of the crust for data selection. The globally averaged orogens show crustal thicknesses that decrease toward high latitudes, almost reflecting topography, in both the individual crustal models and the models averaged together. The most convincing is the western hemisphere cordillera, where elevations and crustal thicknesses decrease toward the poles, and also toward lower latitudes (the equatorial minimum is at ~12oN). The elevation differences and Airy prediction of crustal thickness changes are in reasonable agreement in the North American Cordillera, but in South America the observed crustal thickness change is larger than the Airy prediction. The Alpine-Himalayan chain shows similar trends, however the strike of the chain makes interpretation ambiguous. We also examined cratons with ice sheets during the last glacial period to see if continental glaciation also thins the crust toward

  13. ACE2 Global Digital Elevation Model : User Analysis

    Smith, R. G.; Berry, P. A. M.; Benveniste, J.

    2013-12-01

    Altimeter Corrected Elevations 2 (ACE2), first released in October 2009, is the Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) created by fusing the high accuracy of over 100 million altimeter retracked height estimates, derived primarily from the ERS-1 Geodetic Mission, with the high frequency content available within the near-global Shuttle Radar Topography Mission. This novel ACE2 GDEM is freely available at 3”, 9”, 30” and 5' and has been distributed via the web to over 680 subscribers. This paper presents the results of a detailed analysis of geographical distribution of subscribed users, along with fields of study and potential uses. Investigations have also been performed to determine the most popular spatial resolutions and the impact these have on the scope of data downloaded. The analysis has shown that, even though the majority of users have come from Europe and America, a significant number of website hits have been received from South America, Africa and Asia. Registered users also vary widely, from research institutions and major companies down to individual hobbyists looking at data for single projects.

  14. A model of global citizenship: antecedents and outcomes.

    Reysen, Stephen; Katzarska-Miller, Iva

    2013-01-01

    As the world becomes increasingly interconnected, exposure to global cultures affords individuals opportunities to develop global identities. In two studies, we examine the antecedents and outcomes of identifying with a superordinate identity--global citizen. Global citizenship is defined as awareness, caring, and embracing cultural diversity while promoting social justice and sustainability, coupled with a sense of responsibility to act. Prior theory and research suggest that being aware of one's connection with others in the world (global awareness) and embedded in settings that value global citizenship (normative environment) lead to greater identification with global citizens. Furthermore, theory and research suggest that when global citizen identity is salient, greater identification is related to adherence to the group's content (i.e., prosocial values and behaviors). Results of the present set of studies showed that global awareness (knowledge and interconnectedness with others) and one's normative environment (friends and family support global citizenship) predicted identification with global citizens, and global citizenship predicted prosocial values of intergroup empathy, valuing diversity, social justice, environmental sustainability, intergroup helping, and a felt responsibility to act for the betterment of the world. The relationship between antecedents (normative environment and global awareness) and outcomes (prosocial values) was mediated by identification with global citizens. We discuss the relationship between the present results and other research findings in psychology, the implications of global citizenship for other academic domains, and future avenues of research. Global citizenship highlights the unique effect of taking a global perspective on a multitude of topics relevant to the psychology of everyday actions, environments, and identity.

  15. Reactivity of Metal Nitrates.

    1982-07-20

    02NOCuOH Any mechanism suggested for the nitration of aromatic systems by titanium(IV) nitrate must take into account the observed similarity, in...occurs. -26- References 1. For recent reviews see (a) R. B. Moodie and K. Schofield, Accounts Chem. Res., 1976, 9, 287; (b) G. A. Olah and S. J. Kuhn...Ithaca, N.Y., 1969, Chapter VI; L. M. Stock, Prog. Phys. Org. Chem., 1976, 12, 21; J. G. Hoggett , R. B. Moodie, J. R. Penton, and K. Schofield

  16. Snow nitrate photolysis in polar regions and the mid-latitudes: Impact on boundary layer chemistry and implications for ice core records

    Zatko, Maria C.

    The formation and recycling of nitrogen oxides (NOx=NO+NO 2) associated with snow nitrate photolysis has important implications for air quality and the preservation of nitrate in ice core records. This dissertation examines snow nitrate photolysis in polar and mid-latitude regions using field and laboratory based observations combined with snow chemistry column models and a global chemical transport model to explore the impacts of snow nitrate photolysis on boundary layer chemistry and the preservation of nitrate in polar ice cores. Chapter 1 describes how a global chemical transport model is used to calculate the photolysis-driven flux and redistribution of nitrogen across Antarctica, and Chapter 2 presents similar work for Greenland. Snow-sourced NOx is most dependent on the quantum yield for nitrate photolysis as well as the concentration of photolabile nitrate and light-absorbing impurities (e.g., black carbon, dust, organics) in snow. Model-calculated fluxes of snow-sourced NOx are similar in magnitude in Antarctica (0.5--7.8x108 molec cm-2 s -1) and Greenland (0.1--6.4x108 molec cm-2 s-1) because both nitrate and light-absorbing impurity concentrations in snow are higher (by factors of 2 and 10, respectively) in Greenland. Snow nitrate photolysis influences boundary layer chemistry and ice-core nitrate preservation less in Greenland compared to Antarctica largely due to Greenland's proximity to NOx-source regions. Chapter 3 describes how a snow chemistry column model combined with chemistry and optical measurements from the Uintah Basin Winter Ozone Study (UBWOS) 2014 is used to calculate snow-sourced NOx in eastern Utah. Daily-averaged fluxes of snow-sourced NOx (2.9x10 7--1.3x108 molec cm-2 s-1) are similar in magnitude to polar snow-sourced NO x fluxes, but are only minor components of the Uintah Basin boundary layer NOx budget and can be neglected when developing ozone reduction strategies for the region. Chapter 4 presents chemical and optical

  17. Global transportation cost modeling for long-range planning

    Pope, R.B.; Michelhaugh, R.D.; Singley, P.T.; Lester, P.B.

    1998-02-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) is preparing to perform significant remediation activities of the sites for which it is responsible. To accomplish this, it is preparing a corporate global plan focused on activities over the next decade. Significant in these planned activities is the transportation of the waste arising from the remediation. The costs of this transportation are expected to be large. To support the initial assessment of the plan, a cost estimating model was developed, peer-reviewed against other available packaging and transportation cost data, and applied to a significant number of shipping campaigns of radioactive waste. This cost estimating model, known as the Ten-year Plan Transportation Cost Model (TEPTRAM), can be used to model radioactive material shipments between DOE sites or from DOE sites to non-DOE destinations. The model considers the costs for (a) recovering and processing of the wastes, (b)packaging the wastes for transport, and (c) the carriage of the waste. It also provides a rough order of magnitude estimate of labor costs associated with preparing and undertaking the shipments. At the user's direction, the model can also consider the cost of DOE's interactions with its external stakeholders (e.g., state and local governments and tribal entities) and the cost associated with tracking and communicating with the shipments. By considering all of these sources of costs, it provides a mechanism for assessing and comparing the costs of various waste processing and shipping campaign alternatives to help guide decision-making. Recent analyses of specific planned shipments of transuranic (TRU) waste which consider alternative packaging options are described. These analyses show that options are available for significantly reducing total costs while still satisfying regulatory requirements

  18. Global transportation cost modeling for long range planning

    Pope, R.B.; Michelhaugh, R.D.; Singley, P.T.; Lester, P.B.

    1998-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is preparing to perform significant remediation activities of the sites for which it is responsible. To accomplish this, it is preparing a corporate global plan focused on activities over the next decade. Significant in these planned activities is the transportation of the waste arising from the remediation. The costs of this transportation are expected to be large. To support the initial assessment of the plan, a cost-estimating model was developed, peer-reviewed against other available packaging and transportation cost data, and applied to significant number of shipping campaigns of radioactive waste. This cost-estimating model, known as the TEn-year Plan TRAnsportation cost Model (TEPTRAM), can be used to model radioactive material shipments between DOE sites or from DOE sites to non-DOE destinations. The model considers the costs for recovering and processing of the wastes, packaging the wastes for transport, and the carriage of the waste. It also provides a rough order-of-magnitude estimate of labor costs associated with preparing nd undertaking the shipments. At the user's direction, the model can also consider the cost of DOE's interactions with its external stakeholders (e.g., state and local governments and tribal entities) and the cost associated with tracking and communicating with the shipments. By considering all of these sources of costs, it provides a mechanism for assessing and comparing the costs of various waste processing and shipping campaign alternatives to help guide decision-making. Recent analyses of specific planned shipments of transuranic (TRU) waste which consider alternative packaging options are described. These analyses show that options are available for significantly reducing total costs while still satisfying regulatory requirements. (authors)

  19. Modeling Cancer Metastasis using Global, Quantitative and Integrative Network Biology

    Schoof, Erwin; Erler, Janine

    understanding of molecular processes which are fundamental to tumorigenesis. In Article 1, we propose a novel framework for how cancer mutations can be studied by taking into account their effect at the protein network level. In Article 2, we demonstrate how global, quantitative data on phosphorylation dynamics...... can be generated using MS, and how this can be modeled using a computational framework for deciphering kinase-substrate dynamics. This framework is described in depth in Article 3, and covers the design of KinomeXplorer, which allows the prediction of kinases responsible for modulating observed...... phosphorylation dynamics in a given biological sample. In Chapter III, we move into Integrative Network Biology, where, by combining two fundamental technologies (MS & NGS), we can obtain more in-depth insights into the links between cellular phenotype and genotype. Article 4 describes the proof...

  20. Modelling of the Global Geopotential Energy & Stress Field

    Schiffer, Christian; Nielsen, S.B.

    Lateral density and topography variations yield in and important contribution to the lithospheric stress field. The leading quantity is the Geopotential Energy, the integrated lithostatic pressure in a rock column. The horizontal gradient of this quantity is related to horizontal stresses through...... the Equations of equilibrium of stresses. The Geopotential Energy furthermore can be linearly related to the Geoid under assumption of local isostasy. Satellite Geoid measurements contain, however, also non-isostatic deeper mantle responses of long wavelength. Unfortunately, high-pass filtering of the Geoid...... flow in the presence of local isostasy and a steady state geotherm. Subsequently we use a FEM code to solve the Equations of equilibrium of stresses for a three dimensional elastic shell. The modelled results are shown and compared with the global stress field and other publications....

  1. Global stability of a vaccination model with immigration

    Sarah Henshaw

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available We study an SVIR model of disease transmission with immigration into all four classes. Vaccinated individuals may only receive partial immunity to the disease, giving a leaky vaccine. The incidence function permits a nonlinear response to the number of infectives, so that mass action and saturating incidence are included as special cases. Because of the immigration of infected individuals, there is no disease-free equilibrium and hence no basic reproduction number. We use the Brouwer Fixed Point Theorem to show that an endemic equilibrium exists and the Poincare-Hopf Theorem to show that it is unique. We show the equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable by using a Lyapunov function.

  2. A Collaboration Service Model for a Global Port Cluster

    Keith K.T. Toh

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available The importance of port clusters to a global city may be viewed from a number of perspectives. The development of port clusters and economies of agglomeration and their contribution to a regional economy is underpinned by information and physical infrastructure that facilitates collaboration between business entities within the cluster. The maturity of technologies providing portals, web and middleware services provides an opportunity to push the boundaries of contemporary service reference models and service catalogues to what the authors propose to be "collaboration services". Servicing port clusters, portal engineers of the future must consider collaboration services to benefit a region. Particularly, service orchestration through a "public user portal" must gain better utilisation of publically owned infrastructure, to share knowledge and collaborate among organisations through information systems.

  3. The development of radioactivity diffusion model in global ocean

    Nakano, M.; Watanabe, H.; Katagiri, H.

    2000-01-01

    The radioactivity diffusion model in global ocean has been developing in order to assess the long-term behavior of radioactive materials for discharge from nuclear facility. The model system consists of two parts. One is to calculate current velocity; and the other is for particle chasing. Both systems are executed by Macintosh personal computer. A lot of techniques to estimate ocean current velocity were investigated in geophysical field. The robust diagnosis model advocated by Sarmiento and Bryan was applied to build the numerical calculation system for getting the current velocity field in global scale. The latitudinal and longitudinal lattices were 2 degrees each and the number of vertical layer was 15. The movement of radioactive materials by current and diffusion were calculated using the particle chasing system. The above-mentioned current velocity field and the initial particle positions at will were read by the system. The movement of a particle was calculated using the interpolated current data step by step. The diffusion of a particle was calculated by random walk method. The model was verified by using the fallout data from atmospheric nuclear test. Yearly and latitudinal fallout data was adopted from UNSCEAR1977. The calculation result was compared with the observation data that includes total amount and vertical profile of Cs-137 and Pu-239,240 in the North Pacific Ocean. The result of the verification was agreed with the following general knowledge. Though the fallout amount between 40N and 50N was the biggest in the world, the amount in the seawater between 40N and 50N was smaller than that in south of 40N because of horizontal transportation, which carried water from north to south. As for vertical profile, Cs-137 could be accurately calculated except the surface layer. However the observation peak of Pu-239,240 existed deeper than the calculation peak. This model could calculate the vertical profile of Cs-137 because most of Cs exists as dissolved

  4. Modelling 1-minute directional observations of the global irradiance.

    Thejll, Peter; Pagh Nielsen, Kristian; Andersen, Elsa; Furbo, Simon

    2016-04-01

    Direct and diffuse irradiances from the sky has been collected at 1-minute intervals for about a year from the experimental station at the Technical University of Denmark for the IEA project "Solar Resource Assessment and Forecasting". These data were gathered by pyrheliometers tracking the Sun, as well as with apertured pyranometers gathering 1/8th and 1/16th of the light from the sky in 45 degree azimuthal ranges pointed around the compass. The data are gathered in order to develop detailed models of the potentially available solar energy and its variations at high temporal resolution in order to gain a more detailed understanding of the solar resource. This is important for a better understanding of the sub-grid scale cloud variation that cannot be resolved with climate and weather models. It is also important for optimizing the operation of active solar energy systems such as photovoltaic plants and thermal solar collector arrays, and for passive solar energy and lighting to buildings. We present regression-based modelling of the observed data, and focus, here, on the statistical properties of the model fits. Using models based on the one hand on what is found in the literature and on physical expectations, and on the other hand on purely statistical models, we find solutions that can explain up to 90% of the variance in global radiation. The models leaning on physical insights include terms for the direct solar radiation, a term for the circum-solar radiation, a diffuse term and a term for the horizon brightening/darkening. The purely statistical model is found using data- and formula-validation approaches picking model expressions from a general catalogue of possible formulae. The method allows nesting of expressions, and the results found are dependent on and heavily constrained by the cross-validation carried out on statistically independent testing and training data-sets. Slightly better fits -- in terms of variance explained -- is found using the purely

  5. Transport of nutrients from land to sea: Global modeling approaches and uncertainty analyses

    Beusen, A.H.W.

    2014-01-01

    This thesis presents four examples of global models developed as part of the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE). They describe different components of global biogeochemical cycles of the nutrients nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and silicon (Si), with a focus on approaches to

  6. Global emissions and models of photochemically active compounds

    Penner, J.E.; Atherton, C.S.; Graedel, T.E.

    1993-01-01

    Anthropogenic emissions from industrial activity, fossil fuel combustion, and biomass burning are now known to be large enough (relative to natural sources) to perturb the chemistry of vast regions of the troposphere. A goal of the IGAC Global Emissions Inventory Activity (GEIA) is to provide authoritative and reliable emissions inventories on a 1 degree x 1 degree grid. When combined with atmospheric photochemical models, these high quality emissions inventories may be used to predict the concentrations of major photochemical products. Comparison of model results with measurements of pertinent species allows us to understand whether there are major shortcomings in our understanding of tropospheric photochemistry, the budgets and transport of trace species, and their effects in the atmosphere. Through this activity, we are building the capability to make confident predictions of the future consequences of anthropogenic emissions. This paper compares IGAC recommended emissions inventories for reactive nitrogen and sulfur dioxide to those that have been in use previously. We also present results from the three-dimensional LLNL atmospheric chemistry model that show how emissions of anthropogenic nitrogen oxides might potentially affect tropospheric ozone and OH concentrations and how emissions of anthropogenic sulfur increase sulfate aerosol loadings

  7. Importance measures in global sensitivity analysis of nonlinear models

    Homma, Toshimitsu; Saltelli, Andrea

    1996-01-01

    The present paper deals with a new method of global sensitivity analysis of nonlinear models. This is based on a measure of importance to calculate the fractional contribution of the input parameters to the variance of the model prediction. Measures of importance in sensitivity analysis have been suggested by several authors, whose work is reviewed in this article. More emphasis is given to the developments of sensitivity indices by the Russian mathematician I.M. Sobol'. Given that Sobol' treatment of the measure of importance is the most general, his formalism is employed throughout this paper where conceptual and computational improvements of the method are presented. The computational novelty of this study is the introduction of the 'total effect' parameter index. This index provides a measure of the total effect of a given parameter, including all the possible synergetic terms between that parameter and all the others. Rank transformation of the data is also introduced in order to increase the reproducibility of the method. These methods are tested on a few analytical and computer models. The main conclusion of this work is the identification of a sensitivity analysis methodology which is both flexible, accurate and informative, and which can be achieved at reasonable computational cost

  8. A GLOBAL MAGNETIC TOPOLOGY MODEL FOR MAGNETIC CLOUDS. II

    Hidalgo, M. A., E-mail: miguel.hidalgo@uah.es [Departamento de Fisica, Universidad de Alcala, Apartado 20, E-28871 Alcala de Henares, Madrid (Spain)

    2013-04-01

    In the present work, we extensively used our analytical approach to the global magnetic field topology of magnetic clouds (MCs), introduced in a previous paper, in order to show its potential and to study its physical consistency. The model assumes toroidal topology with a non-uniform (variable maximum radius) cross-section along them. Moreover, it has a non-force-free character and also includes the expansion of its cross-section. As is shown, the model allows us, first, to analyze MC magnetic structures-determining their physical parameters-with a variety of magnetic field shapes, and second, to reconstruct their relative orientation in the interplanetary medium from the observations obtained by several spacecraft. Therefore, multipoint spacecraft observations give the opportunity to infer the structure of this large-scale magnetic flux rope structure in the solar wind. For these tasks, we use data from Helios (A and B), STEREO (A and B), and Advanced Composition Explorer. We show that the proposed analytical model can explain quite well the topology of several MCs in the interplanetary medium and is a good starting point for understanding the physical mechanisms under these phenomena.

  9. Distribution of phytoplankton functional types in high-nitrate low-chlorophyll waters in a new diagnostic ecological indicator model

    Palacz, Artur; St. John, Michael; Brevin, R.J.W.

    2013-01-01

    Modeling and monitoring plankton functional types (PFTs) is challenged by insufficient amount of field measurements to ground-truth both plankton models and bio-optical algorithms. In this study, we combine remote sensing data and a dynamic plankton model to simulate an ecologically-sound spatial...

  10. Phase extraction equilibria in systems rare earth (3) nitrates-ammonium nitrate-water-trialkylmethylammonium nitrate

    Pyartman, A.K.; Kopyrin, A.A.; Puzikov, E.A.

    1995-01-01

    The distribution of rare earth metals (3) between aqueous and organic phases in the systems rare earth metal (3) (praseodymium-lutetium (3), yttrium (3)) nitrate-ammonium nitrate-water-trialkylmethylammonium (kerosene diluent nitrate has been studied. It is shown that in organic phase di- and trisolvates of metals (3) with tralkylmethylammonium nitrate are formed. The influence of concentration of rare earth metal (3) nitrate and ammonium nitrate on the values of extraction concentrational constants has been ascertained: they decrease with increase in the ordinal number of lanthanide (3). 11 refs., 4 figs. 1 tab

  11. Effects of Model Resolution and Ocean Mixing on Forced Ice-Ocean Physical and Biogeochemical Simulations Using Global and Regional System Models

    Jin, Meibing; Deal, Clara; Maslowski, Wieslaw; Matrai, Patricia; Roberts, Andrew; Osinski, Robert; Lee, Younjoo J.; Frants, Marina; Elliott, Scott; Jeffery, Nicole; Hunke, Elizabeth; Wang, Shanlin

    2018-01-01

    The current coarse-resolution global Community Earth System Model (CESM) can reproduce major and large-scale patterns but is still missing some key biogeochemical features in the Arctic Ocean, e.g., low surface nutrients in the Canada Basin. We incorporated the CESM Version 1 ocean biogeochemical code into the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) and coupled it with a sea-ice algal module to investigate model limitations. Four ice-ocean hindcast cases are compared with various observations: two in a global 1° (40˜60 km in the Arctic) grid: G1deg and G1deg-OLD with/without new sea-ice processes incorporated; two on RASM's 1/12° (˜9 km) grid R9km and R9km-NB with/without a subgrid scale brine rejection parameterization which improves ocean vertical mixing under sea ice. Higher-resolution and new sea-ice processes contributed to lower model errors in sea-ice extent, ice thickness, and ice algae. In the Bering Sea shelf, only higher resolution contributed to lower model errors in salinity, nitrate (NO3), and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a). In the Arctic Basin, model errors in mixed layer depth (MLD) were reduced 36% by brine rejection parameterization, 20% by new sea-ice processes, and 6% by higher resolution. The NO3 concentration biases were caused by both MLD bias and coarse resolution, because of excessive horizontal mixing of high NO3 from the Chukchi Sea into the Canada Basin in coarse resolution models. R9km showed improvements over G1deg on NO3, but not on Chl-a, likely due to light limitation under snow and ice cover in the Arctic Basin.

  12. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

    B. B. B. Booth

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM. These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10–90th percentil