Phase II - final report of MARKAL studies for the United Kingdom

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Finnis, M.W.

1980-10-01

A system analysis approach to the assessment of comparative cost and energy contributions of some new technologies is presented. The work reported here refers to the energy system of the United Kingdom, and was carried out within the context of a multi-national R and D Strategy Project. The main tool of analysis is the linear program MARKAL, the function and method of operation of which are described briefly. A range of 14 scenarios is analysed, covering various assumption about the availability of oil, of nuclear power, and of the new technologies themselves. The input data used are described in detail. An overall view of the results is obtained in terms of the trade-off between independence from imported oil and total extra cost, and a cross-section of the detailed results is presented to illustrate and analyse the role of a number of new technologies. (orig.) [de

Biomass resources for energy in Ohio: The OH-MARKAL modeling framework

Science.gov (United States)

Shakya, Bibhakar

The latest reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have indicated that human activities are directly responsible for a significant portion of global warming trends. In response to the growing concerns regarding climate change and efforts to create a sustainable energy future, biomass energy has come to the forefront as a clean and sustainable energy resource. Biomass energy resources are environmentally clean and carbon neutral with net-zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, since CO2 is absorbed or sequestered from the atmosphere during the plant growth. Hence, biomass energy mitigates greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions that would otherwise be added to the environment by conventional fossil fuels, such as coal. The use of biomass resources for energy is even more relevant in Ohio, as the power industry is heavily based on coal, providing about 90 percent of the state's total electricity while only 50 percent of electricity comes from coal at the national level. The burning of coal for electricity generation results in substantial GHG emissions and environmental pollution, which are responsible for global warming and acid rain. Ohio is currently one of the top emitters of GHG in the nation. This dissertation research examines the potential use of biomass resources by analyzing key economic, environmental, and policy issues related to the energy needs of Ohio over a long term future (2001-2030). Specifically, the study develops a dynamic linear programming model (OH-MARKAL) to evaluate biomass cofiring as an option in select coal power plants (both existing and new) to generate commercial electricity in Ohio. The OH-MARKAL model is based on the MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation) framework. Using extensive data on the power industry and biomass resources of Ohio, the study has developed the first comprehensive power sector model for Ohio. Hence, the model can serve as an effective tool for Ohio's energy planning, since it evaluates economic and environmental

The Dynamics of Regional and Global Expansion

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Geisler Asmussen, Christian; Nielsen, Bo Bernhard; Osegowitsch, Tom

2015-01-01

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to model and test the dynamics of home-regional and global penetration by multi-national enterprises (MNEs). Design/methodology/approach – Drawing on international business (IB) theory, the authors model MNEs adjusting their home-regional and global market...... domain. Findings – The authors demonstrate that MNEs do penetrate both home-regional and global markets, often simultaneously, and that penetration levels often oscillate within an MNE over time. The authors show firms’ rates of regional and global expansion to be affected by their existing regional...

Study of alternatives for improving air quality in the town of Itagui, the result of an examination under the scheme of analysis Environment Energy Economy with the MARKAL model and evaluation of goals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Builes J, Luis A; Franco M, Cristina; Rave Claudia C

2008-01-01

For the integrated analysis and assessment of the air quality improvement guidelines in the Aburra Valley region and its municipality Itagui, it is used a multi-period optimization model Markal for an Energy-Environment-Economy scenario analysis on industry and transport sector and, a Targets evaluation methodology for policy assessment on air quality, environmental noise and morbidity. The methodological approach offers the possibility to integrate different variables and decisions to analyze this very complex problem, review different technological scenarios and to analyze their relationships with land use policies among others. The results provide a more integrated panorama of the air quality problematic to policy design and assessment including externalises indicators. The proposed methodology is replicable in other municipalities of the region.

The future of natural gas consumption in Beijing, Guangdong and Shanghai: An assessment utilizing MARKAL

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jiang Binbin; Wenying, Chen; Yu Yuefeng; Zeng Lemin; Victor, David

2008-01-01

Natural gas could possibly become a si0gnificant portion of the future fuel mix in China. However, there is still great uncertainty surrounding the size of this potential market and therefore its impact on the global gas trade. In order to identify some of the important factors that might drive natural gas consumption in key demand areas in China, we focus on three regions: Beijing, Guangdong, and Shanghai. Using the economic optimization model MARKAL, we initially assume that the drivers are government mandates of emissions standards, reform of the Chinese financial structure, the price and available supply of natural gas, and the rate of penetration of advanced power generating and end-use. The results from the model show that the level of natural gas consumption is most sensitive to policy scenarios, which strictly limit SO 2 emissions from power plants. The model also revealed that the low cost of capital for power plants in China boosts the economic viability of capital-intensive coal-fired plants. This suggests that reform within the financial sector could be a lever for encouraging increased natural gas use

Global transportation scenarios in the multi-regional EFDA-TIMES energy model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Muehlich, P.; Hamacher, T.

2009-01-01

The aim of this study is to assess the potential impact of the transportation sector on the role of fusion power in the energy system of the 21st century. Key indicators in this context are global passenger and freight transportation activities, consumption levels of fuels used for transportation purposes, the electricity generation mix and greenhouse gas emissions. These quantities are calculated by means of the global multi-regional EFDA-TIMES energy system model. For the present study a new transportation module has been linked to the EFDA-TIMES framework in order to arrive at a consistent projection of future transportation demands. Results are discussed implying various global energy scenarios including assumed crossovers of road transportation activities towards hydrogen or electricity infrastructures and atmospheric CO 2 concentration stabilization levels at 550 ppm and 450 ppm. Our results show that the penetration of fusion power plants is only slightly sensitive to transportation fuel choices but depends strongly on assumed climate policies. In the most stringent case considered here the contribution of electricity produced by fusion power plants can become as large as about 50% at the end of the 21st century. This statement, however, is still of preliminary nature as the EFDA-TIMES project has not yet reached a final status.

Analytical study for Japan's energy system with MARKAL model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koyama, Shigeo; Kashihara, Toshinori; Endo, Eiichi

1984-01-01

Taking part in the 1982 collaboration activity of the Energy Technology Systems Analysis Project (ETSAP), which was started in November, 1980 by the International Energy Agency (IEA), the authors have analyzed extensive scenarios, including common scenarios of the Project, using a version of energy system model MARKAL programmed by their group and input data set up with various ideas. Important points to be considered in conducting the analysis and noteworthy results obtained from the analysis of Japan's energy systems are given. (AUTHOR)

EPAUS9R - An Energy Systems Database for use with the Market Allocation (MARKAL) Model

Science.gov (United States)

EPA’s MARKAL energy system databases estimate future-year technology dispersals and associated emissions. These databases are valuable tools for exploring a variety of future scenarios for the U.S. energy-production systems that can impact climate change c

Challenges from variation across regions in cost effectiveness analysis in multi-regional clinical trials

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yunbo Chu

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Economic evaluation in the form of cost-effectiveness analysis has become a popular means to inform decisions in healthcare. With multi-regional clinical trials in a global development program becoming a new venue for drug efficacy testing in recent decades, questions in methods for cost-effectiveness analysis in the multi-regional clinical trials setting also emerge. This paper addresses some challenges from variation across regions in cost effectiveness analysis in multi-regional clinical trials. Several discussion points are raised for further attention and a multi-regional clinical trial example is presented to illustrate the implications in industrial application. A general message is delivered to call for a depth discussion by all stakeholders to reach an agreement on a good practice in cost-effectiveness analysis in the multi-regional clinical trials. Meanwhile, we recommend an additional consideration of cost-effectiveness analysis results based on the clinical evidence from a certain homogeneous population as sensitivity or scenario analysis upon data availability.

The influence of global benchmark oil prices on the regional oil spot market in multi-period evolution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jiang, Meihui; An, Haizhong; Jia, Xiaoliang; Sun, Xiaoqi

2017-01-01

Crude benchmark oil prices play a crucial role in energy policy and investment management. Previous research confined itself to studying the static, uncertain, short- or long-term relationship between global benchmark oil prices, ignoring the time-varying, quantitative, dynamic nature of the relationship during various stages of oil price volatility. This paper proposes a novel approach combining grey relation analysis, optimization wavelet analysis, and Bayesian network modeling to explore the multi-period evolution of the dynamic relationship between global benchmark oil prices and regional oil spot price. We analyze the evolution of the most significant decision-making risk periods, as well as the combined strategy-making reference oil prices and the corresponding periods during various stages of volatility. Furthermore, we determine that the network evolution of the quantitative lead/lag relationship between different influences of global benchmark oil prices shows a multi-period evolution phenomenon. For policy makers and market investors, our combined model can provide decision-making periods with the lowest expected risk and decision-making target reference oil prices and corresponding weights for strategy adjustment and market arbitrage. This study provides further information regarding period weights of target reference oil prices, facilitating efforts to perform multi-agent energy policy and intertemporal market arbitrage. - Highlights: • Multi-period evolution of the influence of different oil prices is discovered. • We combined grey relation analysis, optimization wavelet and Bayesian network. • The intensity of volatility, synchronization, and lead/lag effects are analyzed. • The target reference oil prices and corresponding period weights are determined.

MARKAL SCENARIO ANALYSES OF TECHNOLOGY OPTIONS FOR THE ELECTRIC SECTOR: THE IMPACT ON AIR QUALITY

Science.gov (United States)

This report provides a general overview of EPA’s national MARKAL database and energy systems model and compares various scenarios to a business as usual baseline scenario. Under baseline assumptions, total electricity use increases 1.3% annually until 2030. Annual growth in ele...

Implications of sustainability constraints on UK bioenergy development: Assessing optimistic and precautionary approaches with UK MARKAL

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McDowall, Will; Anandarajah, Gabrial; Dodds, Paul E.; Tomei, Julia

2012-01-01

Bioenergy is an important renewable energy resource. However, assessments of the future of bioenergy are beset with uncertainty and contested values, suggesting that a precautionary approach to bioenergy resource development may be warranted. This paper uses UK MARKAL to examine the implications of adopting a precautionary approach to bioenergy development in the UK. The paper reports a detailed review of UK bioenergy resources and sustainability constraints, and develops precautionary and optimistic resource scenarios. The paper then examines the implications of these scenarios using the energy systems model MARKAL, finding that a precautionary approach adds to the cost of decarbonisation, but does not significantly alter the optimal technology mix. In particular, biomass and co-firing CCS emerge as optimal technologies across scenarios. The question of UK land availability for bioenergy production is highlighted within the paper. With less land available for bioenergy production, the costs of decarbonisation will rise; whereas if more land is available for bioenergy, then less land is available for either food production or ecosystem conservation. This paper quantifies one side of this trade-off, by estimating the additional costs incurred when UK land availability for bioenergy production is constrained. - Highlights: ► We assess UK bioenergy resources under optimistic and precautionary approaches. ► Using MARKAL, we find that sustainability constraints add to decarbonisation costs. ► Preferred use of bioenergy is similar in optimistic and precautionary cases. ► Best use of bioenergy is heat and power, not transport, if CCS is available. ► The marginal value of additional land availability to the energy system is high.

Global post-Kyoto scenario analyses at PSI

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kypreos, S [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

1999-08-01

Scenario analyses are described here using the Global MARKAL-Macro Trade (GMMT) model to study the economic implications of the Kyoto Protocol to the UN Convention on Climate change. Some conclusions are derived in terms of efficient implementations of the post-Kyoto extensions of the Protocol. (author) 2 figs., 5 refs.

Global post-Kyoto scenario analyses at PSI

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kypreos, S.

1999-01-01

Scenario analyses are described here using the Global MARKAL-Macro Trade (GMMT) model to study the economic implications of the Kyoto Protocol to the UN Convention on Climate change. Some conclusions are derived in terms of efficient implementations of the post-Kyoto extensions of the Protocol. (author) 2 figs., 5 refs

Multi-scale climate modelling over Southern Africa using a variable-resolution global model

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Engelbrecht, FA

2011-12-01

Full Text Available -mail: fengelbrecht@csir.co.za Multi-scale climate modelling over Southern Africa using a variable-resolution global model FA Engelbrecht1, 2*, WA Landman1, 3, CJ Engelbrecht4, S Landman5, MM Bopape1, B Roux6, JL McGregor7 and M Thatcher7 1 CSIR Natural... improvement. Keywords: multi-scale climate modelling, variable-resolution atmospheric model Introduction Dynamic climate models have become the primary tools for the projection of future climate change, at both the global and regional scales. Dynamic...

Estimating Global Cropland Extent with Multi-year MODIS Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christopher O. Justice

2010-07-01

Full Text Available This study examines the suitability of 250 m MODIS (MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data for mapping global cropland extent. A set of 39 multi-year MODIS metrics incorporating four MODIS land bands, NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and thermal data was employed to depict cropland phenology over the study period. Sub-pixel training datasets were used to generate a set of global classification tree models using a bagging methodology, resulting in a global per-pixel cropland probability layer. This product was subsequently thresholded to create a discrete cropland/non-cropland indicator map using data from the USDA-FAS (Foreign Agricultural Service Production, Supply and Distribution (PSD database describing per-country acreage of production field crops. Five global land cover products, four of which attempted to map croplands in the context of multiclass land cover classifications, were subsequently used to perform regional evaluations of the global MODIS cropland extent map. The global probability layer was further examined with reference to four principle global food crops: corn, soybeans, wheat and rice. Overall results indicate that the MODIS layer best depicts regions of intensive broadleaf crop production (corn and soybean, both in correspondence with existing maps and in associated high probability matching thresholds. Probability thresholds for wheat-growing regions were lower, while areas of rice production had the lowest associated confidence. Regions absent of agricultural intensification, such as Africa, are poorly characterized regardless of crop type. The results reflect the value of MODIS as a generic global cropland indicator for intensive agriculture production regions, but with little sensitivity in areas of low agricultural intensification. Variability in mapping accuracies between areas dominated by different crop types also points to the desirability of a crop-specific approach rather than attempting

Multi-Decadal Global Cooling and Unprecedented Ozone Loss Following a Regional Nuclear Conflict

Science.gov (United States)

Mills, M. J.; Toon, O. B.; Lee-Taylor, J. M.; Robock, A.

2014-12-01

We present the first study of the global impacts of a regional nuclear war with an Earth system model including atmospheric chemistry, ocean dynamics, and interactive sea-ice and land models (Mills et al., 2014). A limited, regional nuclear war between India and Pakistan in which each side detonates 50 15-kt weapons could produce about 5 Tg of black carbon. This would self-loft to the stratosphere, where it would spread globally, producing a sudden drop in surface temperatures and intense heating of the stratosphere. Using the Community Earth System Model with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (CESM1(WACCM)), we calculate an e-folding time of 8.7 years for stratospheric black carbon, compared to 4-6.5 years for previous studies (figure panel a). Our calculations show that global ozone losses of 20-50% over populated areas, levels unprecedented in human history, would accompany the coldest average surface temperatures in the last 1000 years (figure panel c). We calculate summer enhancements in UV indices of 30-80% over Mid-Latitudes, suggesting widespread damage to human health, agriculture, and terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Killing frosts would reduce growing seasons by 10-40 days per year for 5 years. Surface temperatures would be reduced for more than 25 years, due to thermal inertia and albedo effects in the ocean and expanded sea ice. The combined cooling and enhanced UV would put significant pressures on global food supplies and could trigger a global nuclear famine. Knowledge of the impacts of 100 small nuclear weapons should motivate the elimination of the more than 17,000 nuclear weapons that exist today. Mills, M. J., O. B. Toon, J. Lee-Taylor, and A. Robock (2014), Multidecadal global cooling and unprecedented ozone loss following a regional nuclear conflict, Earth's Future, 2(4), 161-176, doi:10.1002/2013EF000205.

Improvement of global and regional mean sea level derived from satellite altimetry multi missions

Science.gov (United States)

Ablain, M.; Faugere, Y.; Larnicol, G.; Picot, N.; Cazenave, A.; Benveniste, J.

2012-04-01

With the satellite altimetry missions, the global mean sea level (GMSL) has been calculated on a continual basis since January 1993. 'Verification' phases, during which the satellites follow each other in close succession (Topex/Poseidon--Jason-1, then Jason-1--Jason-2), help to link up these different missions by precisely determining any bias between them. Envisat, ERS-1 and ERS-2 are also used, after being adjusted on these reference missions, in order to compute Mean Sea Level at high latitudes (higher than 66°N and S), and also to improve spatial resolution by combining all these missions together. The global mean sea level (MSL) deduced from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1 and Jason-2 provide a global rate of 3.2 mm from 1993 to 2010 applying the post glacial rebound (MSL aviso website http://www.jason.oceanobs.com/msl). Besides, the regional sea level trends bring out an inhomogeneous repartition of the ocean elevation with local MSL slopes ranging from + 8 mm/yr to - 8 mm/year. A study published in 2009 [Ablain et al., 2009] has shown that the global MSL trend unceratainty was estimated at +/-0.6 mm/year with a confidence interval of 90%. The main sources of errors at global and regional scales are due to the orbit calculation and the wet troposphere correction. But others sea-level components have also a significant impact on the long-term stability of MSL as for instance the stability of instrumental parameters and the atmospheric corrections. Thanks to recent studies performed in the frame of the SALP project (supported by CNES) and Sea-level Climate Change Initiative project (supported by ESA), strong improvements have been provided for the estimation of the global and regional MSL trends. In this paper, we propose to describe them; they concern the orbit calculation thanks to new gravity fields, the atmospheric corrections thanks to ERA-interim reanalyses, the wet troposphere corrections thanks to the stability improvement, and also empirical corrections

Global and regional left ventricular function: a comparison between gated SPECT, 2D echocardiography and multi-slice computed tomography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Henneman, Maureen M.; Bax, Jeroen J.; Holman, Eduard R.; Schuijf, Joanne D.; Jukema, J.W.; Wall, Ernst E. van der; Stokkel, Marcel P.M.; Lamb, Hildo J.; Roos, Albert de

2006-01-01

Global and regional left ventricular (LV) function are important indicators of the cardiac status in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD). Therapy and prognosis are to a large extent dependent on LV function. Multi-slice computed tomography (MSCT) has already earned its place as an imaging modality for non-invasive assessment of the coronary arteries, but since retrospective gating to the patient's ECG is performed, information on LV function can be derived. In 49 patients with known or suspected CAD, coronary angiography with MSCT imaging was performed, in addition to gated SPECT and 2D echocardiography. LV end-diastolic and LV end-systolic volumes and LV ejection fraction were analysed with dedicated software (CMR Analytical Software System, Medis, Leiden, The Netherlands for MSCT; gated SPECT by QGS, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, CA, USA), and by the biplane Simpson's rule for 2D echocardiography. Regional wall motion was evaluated according to a 17-segment model and a three-point score system. Correlations were fairly good between gated SPECT and MSCT (LVEDV: r=0.65; LVESV: r=0.63; LVEF: r=0.60), and excellent between 2D echocardiography and MSCT (LVEDV: r=0.92; LVESV: r=0.93; LVEF: r=0.80). Agreement for regional wall motion was 95% (κ=0.66) between gated SPECT and MSCT, and 96% (κ=0.73) between 2D echocardiography and MSCT. Global and regional LV function and LV volumes can be adequately assessed with MSCT. Correlations with 2D echocardiography are stronger than with gated SPECT. (orig.)

An analysis of energy strategies for CO2 emission reduction in China. Case studies by MARKAL model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Guangya

1994-12-01

The China's energy system has been analyzed by using the MARKAL model in this study and the time period is from the year 1990 to 2050. The MARKAL model is applied here to evaluate the cost effective energy strategies for CO 2 emission reduction in China. Firstly the Reference Energy System (RES) of China and its database were established, and the useful energy demand was projected on the basis of China's economic target and demographic forecasting. Four scenarios, BASE1-BASE4 were defined with different assumptions of crude oil and natural uranium availability. Analytical results show that without CO 2 emission constrains coal consumption will continue to hold a dominant position in primary energy supply, and CO 2 emissions in 2050 will be 9.55 BtCO 2 and 10.28 BtCO 2 with different natural uranium availability. Under the CO 2 emission constraints, nuclear and renewable energy will play important roles in CO 2 emission reduction, and feasible maximum CO 2 emission reduction estimated by this study is 3.16 BtCO 2 in 2050. The cumulative CO 2 emission from 1990 to 2050 will be 418.25 BtCO 2 and 429.16 BtCO 2 with different natural uranium availability. Total feasible maximum CO 2 emission reduction from 1990 to 2050 is 95.97 BtCO 2 . (author)

Uncertainty in the learning rates of energy technologies. An experiment in a global multi-regional energy system model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rout, Ullash K.; Blesl, Markus; Fahl, Ulrich; Remme, Uwe; Voss, Alfred

2009-01-01

The diffusion of promising energy technologies in the market depends on their future energy production-cost development. When analyzing these technologies in an integrated assessment model using endogenous technological learning, the uncertainty in the assumed learning rates (LRs) plays a crucial role in the production-cost development and model outcomes. This study examines the uncertainty in LRs of some energy technologies under endogenous global learning implementation and presents a floor-cost modeling procedure to systematically regulate the uncertainty in LRs of energy technologies. The article narrates the difficulties of data assimilation, as compatible with mixed integer programming segmentations, and comprehensively presents the causes of uncertainty in LRs. This work is executed using a multi-regional and long-horizon energy system model based on 'TIMES' framework. All regions receive an economic advantage to learn in a common domain, and resource-ample regions obtain a marginal advantage for better exploitation of the learning technologies, due to a lower supply-side fuel-cost development. The lowest learning investment associated with the maximum LR mobilizes more deployment of the learning technologies. The uncertainty in LRs has an impact on the diffusion of energy technologies tested, and therefore this study scrutinizes the role of policy support for some of the technologies investigated. (author)

Toward a global multi-scale heliophysics observatory

Science.gov (United States)

Semeter, J. L.

2017-12-01

We live within the only known stellar-planetary system that supports life. What we learn about this system is not only relevant to human society and its expanding reach beyond Earth's surface, but also to our understanding of the origins and evolution of life in the universe. Heliophysics is focused on solar-terrestrial interactions mediated by the magnetic and plasma environment surrounding the planet. A defining feature of energy flow through this environment is interaction across physical scales. A solar disturbance aimed at Earth can excite geospace variability on scales ranging from thousands of kilometers (e.g., global convection, region 1 and 2 currents, electrojet intensifications) to 10's of meters (e.g., equatorial spread-F, dispersive Alfven waves, plasma instabilities). Most "geospace observatory" concepts are focused on a single modality (e.g., HF/UHF radar, magnetometer, optical) providing a limited parameter set over a particular spatiotemporal resolution. Data assimilation methods have been developed to couple heterogeneous and distributed observations, but resolution has typically been prescribed a-priori and according to physical assumptions. This paper develops a conceptual framework for the next generation multi-scale heliophysics observatory, capable of revealing and quantifying the complete spectrum of cross-scale interactions occurring globally within the geospace system. The envisioned concept leverages existing assets, enlists citizen scientists, and exploits low-cost access to the geospace environment. Examples are presented where distributed multi-scale observations have resulted in substantial new insight into the inner workings of our stellar-planetary system.

Improved simulation of tropospheric ozone by a global-multi-regional two-way coupling model system

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Yan

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Small-scale nonlinear chemical and physical processes over pollution source regions affect the tropospheric ozone (O3, but these processes are not captured by current global chemical transport models (CTMs and chemistry–climate models that are limited by coarse horizontal resolutions (100–500 km, typically 200 km. These models tend to contain large (and mostly positive tropospheric O3 biases in the Northern Hemisphere. Here we use the recently built two-way coupling system of the GEOS-Chem CTM to simulate the regional and global tropospheric O3 in 2009. The system couples the global model (at 2.5° long.  ×  2° lat. and its three nested models (at 0.667° long.  ×  0.5° lat. covering Asia, North America and Europe, respectively. Specifically, the nested models take lateral boundary conditions (LBCs from the global model, better capture small-scale processes and feed back to modify the global model simulation within the nested domains, with a subsequent effect on their LBCs. Compared to the global model alone, the two-way coupled system better simulates the tropospheric O3 both within and outside the nested domains, as found by evaluation against a suite of ground (1420 sites from the World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases (WDCGG, the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Global Monitoring Division (GMD, the Chemical Coordination Centre of European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP, and the United States Environmental Protection Agency Air Quality System (AQS, aircraft (the High-performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research (HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO and Measurement of Ozone and Water Vapor by Airbus In- Service Aircraft (MOZAIC and satellite measurements (two Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI products. The two-way coupled simulation enhances the correlation in day-to-day variation of afternoon mean surface O3

Multi-region relaxed Hall magnetohydrodynamics with flow

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lingam, Manasvi, E-mail: mlingam@princeton.edu [Department of Astrophysical Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08544 (United States); Abdelhamid, Hamdi M., E-mail: hamdi@ppl.k.u-tokyo.ac.jp [Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, The University of Tokyo, Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa, Chiba 277-8561 (Japan); Physics Department, Faculty of Science, Mansoura University, Mansoura 35516 (Egypt); Hudson, Stuart R., E-mail: shudson@pppl.gov [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, PO Box 451, Princeton, New Jersey 08543 (United States)

2016-08-15

The recent formulations of multi-region relaxed magnetohydrodynamics (MRxMHD) have generalized the famous Woltjer-Taylor states by incorporating a collection of “ideal barriers” that prevent global relaxation and flow. In this paper, we generalize MRxMHD with flow to include Hall effects, and thereby obtain the partially relaxed counterparts of the famous double Beltrami states as a special subset. The physical and mathematical consequences arising from the introduction of the Hall term are also presented. We demonstrate that our results (in the ideal MHD limit) constitute an important subset of ideal MHD equilibria, and we compare our approach against other variational principles proposed for deriving the partially relaxed states.

MARKAL Application for Analysis of Energy Efficiency in Economic Activities of the Republic of Moldova and Feasible use of Renewable Energy Sources

OpenAIRE

Robu, Sergiu; Bikova, Elena; Siakkis, Philip; Giannakidis, George

2010-01-01

The paper presents results of analyses of energy efficiency measures and renewable energy sources implementation in the Republic of Moldova using MARKAL model. Detailed analyses of four scenarios are presented for: Reference Scenario; Energy Efficiency Scenario; Renewable Energy Sources Scenario; Energy Efficiency&Renewable Energy Scenario. Energy savings and costs are identified for implementation of renewable energy sources and Energy efficiency measures.

CO2 emissions in the global supply chains of services: An analysis based on a multi-regional input–output model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Wencheng; Peng, Shuijun; Sun, Chuanwang

2015-01-01

As the service sector dominates the economy in developed countries, its environmental impact has become an important issue. Based on a multi-regional input–output model, this paper estimates consumption-based emissions of service sectors of 41 countries and regions, and discusses the emission abatement policy of service sectors. The results indicate that consumption-based emissions of the service sector in most countries and regions are much greater than direct emissions generated by the service sector. Further decomposition by production sources demonstrates that final demand for services in certain countries causes substantial emissions in the other countries. In most countries, major parts of consumption-based emissions of the service sector come from upstream emissions in non-service sectors due to the intermediate consumption of non-service inputs in the service sector. For the US and China, the consumption-based emissions of their service sectors are traced back to different service consumption bundles and production sectors, which enable us to identify service categories and production sectors that play key roles in the impact of service sectors on CO 2 emissions. Finally, policy implications of the results are discussed for the climate effect of the service-oriented economy, global mitigation of climate change, sustainability, and the decarbonization of the service sector. - Highlights: • A consumption perspective for the assessment of the environmental impact of the service sector. • International supply chain effect is analyzed using a global input–output model. • Consumption-based emissions of the service sector are decomposed in two ways. • Policy implications for emissions mitigation in the service-oriented economy.

GLOBALIZATION & REGIONALIZATION IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ramona Frunză

2009-12-01

Full Text Available The concept of globalization refers to the growing interdependence of countries, resulting from the increasing integration of trade, finance, investments, labor markets and ideas in one globalmarketplace. The most important elements of this process are the international trade and the cross-border investment flows. Economic globalization has increased the specialization of workers, while the companies compete in global markets. Even globalization has recently become a common topic in academic discourse, many economists focused, from the 1980s and 1990s, in addition to globalization, on regionalization - the growth of networks of interdependence within multinational regions of the world. The recent decades arecharacterized by the fact that the world trade grew faster than world output, which implies that an increasing share of world GDP crosses international borders. The trend is explained, mostly, by thesubstantially declining of the trade barriers during the same period, as a result of successive trade negotiation rounds under the auspices of the GATT/WTO, unilateral trade liberalization and regional tradeagreements. Even there are global connections between all the countries, the strongest political and economic integration is being created within a few specific regions of the world: Europe, North America and East Asia.

AgMIP 1.5°C Assessment: Mitigation and Adaptation at Coordinated Global and Regional Scales

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenzweig, C.

2016-12-01

The AgMIP 1.5°C Coordinated Global and Regional Integrated Assessments of Climate Change and Food Security (AgMIP 1.5 CGRA) is linking site-based crop and livestock models with similar models run on global grids, and then links these biophysical components with economics models and nutrition metrics at regional and global scales. The AgMIP 1.5 CGRA assessment brings together experts in climate, crop, livestock, economics, nutrition, and food security to define the 1.5°C Protocols and guide the process throughout the assessment. Scenarios are designed to consistently combine elements of intertwined storylines of future society including socioeconomic development (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways), greenhouse gas concentrations (Representative Concentration Pathways), and specific pathways of agricultural sector development (Representative Agricultural Pathways). Shared Climate Policy Assumptions will be extended to provide additional agricultural detail on mitigation and adaptation strategies. The multi-model, multi-disciplinary, multi-scale integrated assessment framework is using scenarios of economic development, adaptation, mitigation, food policy, and food security. These coordinated assessments are grounded in the expertise of AgMIP partners around the world, leading to more consistent results and messages for stakeholders, policymakers, and the scientific community. The early inclusion of nutrition and food security experts has helped to ensure that assessment outputs include important metrics upon which investment and policy decisions may be based. The CGRA builds upon existing AgMIP research groups (e.g., the AgMIP Wheat Team and the AgMIP Global Gridded Crop Modeling Initiative; GGCMI) and regional programs (e.g., AgMIP Regional Teams in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia), with new protocols for cross-scale and cross-disciplinary linkages to ensure the propagation of expert judgment and consistent assumptions.

Endogenous implementation of technology gap in energy optimization models-a systematic analysis within TIMES G5 model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rout, Ullash K.; Fahl, Ulrich; Remme, Uwe; Blesl, Markus; Voss, Alfred

2009-01-01

Evaluation of global diffusion potential of learning technologies and their timely specific cost development across regions is always a challenging issue for the future technology policy preparation. Further the process of evaluation gains interest especially by endogenous treatment of energy technologies under uncertainty in learning rates with technology gap across the regions in global regional cluster learning approach. This work devised, implemented, and examined new methodologies on technology gaps (a practical problem), using two broad concepts of knowledge deficit and time lag approaches in global learning, applying the floor cost approach methodology. The study was executed in a multi-regional, technology-rich and long horizon bottom-up linear energy system model on The Integrated MARKAL EFOM System (TIMES) framework. Global learning selects highest learning technologies in maximum uncertainty of learning rate scenario, whereas any form of technology gap retards the global learning process and discourages the technologies deployment. Time lag notions of technology gaps prefer heavy utilization of learning technologies in developed economies for early reduction of specific cost. Technology gaps of any kind should be reduced among economies through the promotion and enactment of various policies by governments, in order to utilize the technological resources by mass deployment to combat ongoing climate change.

Variational formulation of relaxed and multi-region relaxed magnetohydrodynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Dewar, R. L.; Yoshida, Z.; Bhattacharjee, A.; Hudson, S. R.

2015-12-01

> Ideal magnetohydrodynamics (IMHD) is strongly constrained by an infinite number of microscopic constraints expressing mass, entropy and magnetic flux conservation in each infinitesimal fluid element, the latter preventing magnetic reconnection. By contrast, in the Taylor relaxation model for formation of macroscopically self-organized plasma equilibrium states, all these constraints are relaxed save for the global magnetic fluxes and helicity. A Lagrangian variational principle is presented that leads to a new, fully dynamical, relaxed magnetohydrodynamics (RxMHD), such that all static solutions are Taylor states but also allows state with flow. By postulating that some long-lived macroscopic current sheets can act as barriers to relaxation, separating the plasma into multiple relaxation regions, a further generalization, multi-region relaxed magnetohydrodynamics (MRxMHD) is developed.

Strategic research on CO2 emission reduction for China. Application of MARKAL to China energy system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Yongping

1995-09-01

MARKAL was applied to the energy system for analyzing the CO 2 emission reduction in China over the time period from 1990 to 2050. First the Chinese Reference Energy System (CRES) was established based on the framework of MARKAL model. The following conclusions can be drawn from this study. When shifting from scenario LH (low useful energy demand and high import fuel prices) to HL (high demand and low prices), another 33 EJ of primary energy will be consumed and another 2.31 billion tons of CO 2 will be emitted in 2050. Detailed analyses on the disaggregation of CO 2 emissions by Kaya Formula show. The energy intensity (primary energy/GDP) decreases much faster in scenario HL, but the higher growth rate of GDP per capita is the overwhelming factor that results in higher CO 2 emission per capita in the baseline case of scenario HL in comparison with LH. When the carbon taxes are imposed on CO 2 emissions, the residential sector will make the biggest contribution to CO 2 emission abatement from a long-term point of view. However, it's difficult to stabilize CO 2 emission per capita before 2030 in both scenarios even with heavy carbon taxes. When nuclear moratorium occurs, more 560 million tons of CO 2 will be emitted to the atmosphere in 2050 under the same CO 2 tax regime. From the analysis of value flow, CO 2 emission reduction depends largely on new or advanced technologies particularly in the field of electricity generation. The competent technologies switch to those CO 2 less-emitting technologies when surcharging CO 2 emissions. Nuclear power shows significant potential in saving fossil energy resources and reducing CO 2 emissions. (J.P.N.)

Regional and Global Monetary Cooperation

OpenAIRE

Mario Lamberte; Peter J. Morgan

2012-01-01

The increasing occurrence of national, regional, and global financial crises, together with their rising costs and complexity, have increased calls for greater regional and global monetary cooperation. This is particularly necessary in light of volatile capital flow movements that can quickly transmit crisis developments in individual countries to other countries around the world. Global financial safety nets (GFSNs) are one important area for monetary cooperation. This paper reviews the c...

Estudio de alternativas para el mejoramiento de la calidad del aire en el municipio de itagüí, resultado de un análisis bajo el esquema de análisis energía ambiente economía con el modelo markal y la evaluación de metas.

OpenAIRE

BUILES JARAMILLO, LUIS ALEJANDRO; FRANCO, MARIA CRISTINA; RAVE, CLAUDIA C.

2010-01-01

Enmarcado en una propuesta metodológica para la formulación de lineamientos de acción para el mejoramiento de la calidad del aire en el Municipio de Itagüí, se emplea un modelo de optimización multi-periodo, basado en programación lineal, del tipo Energía-Ambiente-Economía (MARKAL-estándar) y una metodología de Evaluación de metas normativas, para el análisis prospectivo de alternativas integrales de intervención en los sectores industria, transporte y de apoyo para la evaluación de normativa...

The Multiplier Effect: The Case for Multi-School, Global Education Programs

Science.gov (United States)

Dugan, Rik; Nink, Matt

2010-01-01

Multi-school and multi-country programs greatly enhance leadership development and global awareness in students and teachers, while creating better problem solvers, stronger relationships, and wider community impact than any single-school program. That's why Global Youth Leadership Institute (GYLI) and National Association of Independent Schools…

Global exposure and vulnerability to multi-sector development and climate change hotspots

Science.gov (United States)

Byers, Edward; Gidden, Matthew; Leclère, David; Balkovic, Juraj; Burek, Peter; Ebi, Kristie; Greve, Peter; Grey, David; Havlik, Petr; Hillers, Astrid; Johnson, Nils; Kahil, Taher; Krey, Volker; Langan, Simon; Nakicenovic, Nebjosa; Novak, Robert; Obersteiner, Michael; Pachauri, Shonali; Palazzo, Amanda; Parkinson, Simon; Rao, Narasimha D.; Rogelj, Joeri; Satoh, Yusuke; Wada, Yoshihide; Willaarts, Barbara; Riahi, Keywan

2018-05-01

Understanding the interplay between multiple climate change risks and socioeconomic development is increasingly required to inform effective actions to manage these risks and pursue sustainable development. We calculate a set of 14 impact indicators at different levels of global mean temperature (GMT) change and socioeconomic development covering water, energy and land sectors from an ensemble of global climate, integrated assessment and impact models. The analysis includes changes in drought intensity and water stress index, cooling demand change and heat event exposure, habitat degradation and crop yield, amongst others. To investigate exposure to multi-sector climate impacts, these are combined with gridded socioeconomic projections of population and those ‘vulnerable to poverty’ from three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) (income populations vulnerable to poverty, the exposure is an order of magnitude greater (8–32x) in the high poverty and inequality scenarios (SSP3) compared to sustainable socioeconomic development (SSP1). Whilst 85%–95% of global exposure falls to Asian and African regions, they have 91%–98% of the exposed and vulnerable population (depending on SSP/GMT combination), approximately half of which in South Asia. In higher warming scenarios, African regions have growing proportion of the global exposed and vulnerable population, ranging from 7%–17% at 1.5 °C, doubling to 14%–30% at 2 °C and again to 27%–51% at 3 °C. Finally, beyond 2 °C and at higher risk thresholds, the world’s poorest are disproportionately impacted, particularly in cases (SSP3) of high inequality in Africa and southern Asia. Sustainable development that reduces poverty, mitigates emissions and meets targets in the water, energy and land sectors has the potential for order-of-magnitude scale reductions in multi-sector climate risk for the most vulnerable.

Biomass for energy or materials? A Western European MARKAL MATTER 1.0 model characterization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gielen, D.J.; Gerlagh, T.; Bos, A.J.M.

1998-12-01

The structure and input data for the biomass module of the MATTER 1.0 model, a MARKAL energy and materials systems engineering model for Western Europe, is discussed. This model is used for development of energy and materials strategies for greenhouse gas emission reduction. Preliminary biomass results are presented in order to identify key processes and key parameters that deserve further analysis. The results show that the production of biomaterials is an attractive option for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Biomaterials can substitute materials which require a lot of energy for production or they can substitute fossil fuel feedstocks. Increased biomaterials production will result in increasing amounts of waste biomass which can be used for energy production. An increase of the use of biomass for the production of materials needs more attention in the forthcoming BRED analysis. 93 refs

Multi-Sited Global Ethnography and Travel: Gendered Journeys in Three Registers

Science.gov (United States)

Epstein, Debbie; Fahey, Johannah; Kenway, Jane

2013-01-01

This paper joins a barely begun conversation about multi-sited and global ethnography in educational research; a conversation that is likely to intensify along with growing interest in the links between education, globalisation, internationalisation and transnationalism. Drawing on an ongoing multi-sited global ethnography of elite schools and…

A global, multi-disciplinary, multi-sectorial initiative to combat leptospirosis: Global Leptospirosis Environmental Action Network (GLEAN).

Science.gov (United States)

Durski, Kara N; Jancloes, Michel; Chowdhary, Tej; Bertherat, Eric

2014-06-05

Leptospirosis has emerged as a major public health problem in both animals and humans. The true burden of this epidemic and endemic disease is likely to be grossly under-estimated due to the non-specific clinical presentations of the disease and the difficulty of laboratory confirmation. The complexity that surrounds the transmission dynamics, particularly in epidemic situations, requires a coordinated, multi-disciplinary effort. Therefore, the Global Leptospirosis Environmental Action Network (GLEAN) was developed to improve global and local strategies of how to predict, prevent, detect, and intervene in leptospirosis outbreaks in order to prevent and control leptospirosis in high-risk populations.

Strategic research on CO{sub 2} emission reduction for China. Application of MARKAL to China energy system

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yongping, Wang [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan). Tokai Research Establishment

1995-09-01

MARKAL was applied to the energy system for analyzing the CO{sub 2} emission reduction in China over the time period from 1990 to 2050. First the Chinese Reference Energy System (CRES) was established based on the framework of MARKAL model. The following conclusions can be drawn from this study. When shifting from scenario LH (low useful energy demand and high import fuel prices) to HL (high demand and low prices), another 33 EJ of primary energy will be consumed and another 2.31 billion tons of CO{sub 2} will be emitted in 2050. Detailed analyses on the disaggregation of CO{sub 2} emissions by Kaya Formula show. The energy intensity (primary energy/GDP) decreases much faster in scenario HL, but the higher growth rate of GDP per capita is the overwhelming factor that results in higher CO{sub 2} emission per capita in the baseline case of scenario HL in comparison with LH. When the carbon taxes are imposed on CO{sub 2} emissions, the residential sector will make the biggest contribution to CO{sub 2} emission abatement from a long-term point of view. However, it`s difficult to stabilize CO{sub 2} emission per capita before 2030 in both scenarios even with heavy carbon taxes. When nuclear moratorium occurs, more 560 million tons of CO{sub 2} will be emitted to the atmosphere in 2050 under the same CO{sub 2} tax regime. From the analysis of value flow, CO{sub 2} emission reduction depends largely on new or advanced technologies particularly in the field of electricity generation. The competent technologies switch to those CO{sub 2} less-emitting technologies when surcharging CO{sub 2} emissions. Nuclear power shows significant potential in saving fossil energy resources and reducing CO{sub 2} emissions. (J.P.N.).

Global multi-decadal ocean climate and small-pelagic fish population

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tourre, Yves M; Lluch-Cota, Salvador E; White, Warren B

2007-01-01

Ocean climate, environmental and biological conditions vary on several spatio-temporal scales. Besides climate change associated with anthropogenic activity, there is growing evidence of a natural global multi-decadal climate signal in the ocean-atmosphere-biosphere climate system. The spatio-temporal evolution of this signal is thus analyzed during the 20th century and compared to the variability of small-pelagic fish landings. It is argued that the low-frequency global ocean environment and plankton ecosystems must be modified such that small-pelagic populations vary accordingly. A small-pelagic global index or fishing 'regime indicator series' (RIS) (i.e. a small-pelagic abundance indicator) is used. RIS is derived from fish landings data in the four main fishing areas in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. Global RIS changes phase (from positive to negative values) when SST multi-decadal anomalies are out-of-phase between the eastern Pacific and southern Atlantic. RIS also displays maxima during the mid-30s to early-40s and the late-70s to early-80s when the multi-decadal signal was approximately changing phases (Tourre and White 2006 Geophys. Res. Lett. 33 L06716). It is recognized that other factors may modulate fish stocks, including anthropogenic predation. Nevertheless it is proposed that variable climate and environment, and the low-frequency 'global synchrony' of small-pelagic landings (Schwartzlose et al 1999 S. Afr. J. Mar. Sci. 21 289-347), could be associated with the multi-decadal changes in global ocean climate conditions

Local, Regional or Global?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Geisler Asmussen, Christian

to be consistent with models of internationalization that incorporate different assumptions about strategic choice and global competition. Preliminary results show that large multinationals follow home region oriented internationalization paths, although much of the regional effect reported by previous studies...

A multi-model assessment of regional climate disparities caused by solar geoengineering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kravitz, Ben; Rasch, Philip J; Singh, Balwinder; Yoon, Jin-Ho; MacMartin, Douglas G; Robock, Alan; Ricke, Katharine L; Cole, Jason N S; Curry, Charles L; Irvine, Peter J; Ji, Duoying; Moore, John C; Keith, David W; Egill Kristjánsson, Jón; Muri, Helene; Tilmes, Simone; Watanabe, Shingo; Yang, Shuting

2014-01-01

Global-scale solar geoengineering is the deliberate modification of the climate system to offset some amount of anthropogenic climate change by reducing the amount of incident solar radiation at the surface. These changes to the planetary energy budget result in differential regional climate effects. For the first time, we quantitatively evaluate the potential for regional disparities in a multi-model context using results from a model experiment that offsets the forcing from a quadrupling of CO 2 via reduction in solar irradiance. We evaluate temperature and precipitation changes in 22 geographic regions spanning most of Earth's continental area. Moderate amounts of solar reduction (up to 85% of the amount that returns global mean temperatures to preindustrial levels) result in regional temperature values that are closer to preindustrial levels than an un-geoengineered, high CO 2 world for all regions and all models. However, in all but one model, there is at least one region for which no amount of solar reduction can restore precipitation toward its preindustrial value. For most metrics considering simultaneous changes in both variables, temperature and precipitation values in all regions are closer to the preindustrial climate for a moderate amount of solar reduction than for no solar reduction. (letter)

CONSTRUCTING A MULTI-REGIONAL SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRIX FOR TURKEY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Metin Piskin

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Regional impacts of public policies in Turkey have led to Regional Development Agencies and related institutions having responsibility for setting and achieving sustainability policies at the regional level. As a result, there is a significant interest in developing empirical models that can deal with the macro, micro and regional impacts of economic policies and interregional spillover effects. Spatial or Multi-Regional Computable General Equilibrium models are the most capable models to handle a wide range of policy relevant regional questions and the effects of policies on a comprehensive set of regional and national economic variables. However, an important ingredient in meeting the Multi-Regional CGE analysis is Multi-Regional Social Accounting Matrices. This study is focusing on the building the first Multi-Regional Social Accounting Matrix for Turkey with 11 regions and 8 sectors. We utilize from the most updated available datasets and implement the most conveninent non-survey methods which fit to data availability in Turkey.

Multi-scale spatial modeling of human exposure from local sources to global intake

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wannaz, Cedric; Fantke, Peter; Jolliet, Olivier

2018-01-01

Exposure studies, used in human health risk and impact assessments of chemicals are largely performed locally or regionally. It is usually not known how global impacts resulting from exposure to point source emissions compare to local impacts. To address this problem, we introduce Pangea......, an innovative multi-scale, spatial multimedia fate and exposure assessment model. We study local to global population exposure associated with emissions from 126 point sources matching locations of waste-to-energy plants across France. Results for three chemicals with distinct physicochemical properties...... occur within a 100 km radius from the source. This suggests that, by neglecting distant low-level exposure, local assessments might only account for fractions of global cumulative intakes. We also study ~10,000 emission locations covering France more densely to determine per chemical and exposure route...

Region and globalization: The State’s issue

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Raúl Balbuena Bello

2001-01-01

Full Text Available Region, globalization and identity are the central elements in this document. To starting the interpretation of identity, I shows that the globalization process, even though is the dominant process, doesn´t make desappear the region, but it reaffirm it. Financial and productive processes sustained through the limits of the free competition appear as the elements that will characterize the regionalism process more deeply. The north frontier is a clear example of what the region represents in the globalization process. The regional identity doesn´t underlie to the globalization, the north frontier, the labor processes and its proximity to the most powerful country of the world represents an enormous advantage for the interests of the transnational enterprises when some companies establishing its along the north frontier. Therefore, the region and the globalization appear as a problem of the identity (or of identities if it is required in this document.

The multi region molten-salt reactor concept

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gyula, Csom; Sandor, Feher; Szieberth, M.; Szabolcs, Czifrus

2003-01-01

The molten-salt reactor (MSR) concept is one of the most promising systems for the realisation of transmutation. The objective is the development of a transmutation technique along with a device implementing it, which yield higher transmutation efficiencies than that of the known procedures. The procedure is the multi-step transmutation, in which the transformation is carried out in several consecutive steps of different neutron flux and spectrum. In order to implement this, a multi-region transmutation device, i.e. nuclear reactor or sub-critical system is proposed, in which several separate flow-through irradiation rooms are formed with various neutron spectra and fluxes. The paper presents calculations that were performed for a special 5-region version of the multi-region molten-salt reactor. (author)

A GLOBAL REGISTRATION ALGORITHM OF THE SINGLE-CLOSED RING MULTI-STATIONS POINT CLOUD

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Yang

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Aimed at the global registration problem of the single-closed ring multi-stations point cloud, a formula in order to calculate the error of rotation matrix was constructed according to the definition of error. The global registration algorithm of multi-station point cloud was derived to minimize the error of rotation matrix. And fast-computing formulas of transformation matrix with whose implementation steps and simulation experiment scheme was given. Compared three different processing schemes of multi-station point cloud, the experimental results showed that the effectiveness of the new global registration method was verified, and it could effectively complete the global registration of point cloud.

The costs of mitigating carbon emissions in China: findings from China MARKAL-MACRO modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen Wenying

2005-01-01

In this paper MARKAL-MACRO, an integrated energy-environment-economy model, is used to generate China's reference scenario for future energy development and carbon emission through the year 2050. The results show that with great efforts on structure adjustment, energy efficiency improvement and energy substitution, China's primary energy consumption is expected to be 4818 Mtce and carbon emission 2394 MtC by 2050 with annual decrease rate of 3% for the carbon intensity per GDP during the period 2000-2050. On the basis of this reference scenario, China's marginal abatement cost curves of carbon for the year 2010, 2020 and 2030 are derived from the model, and the impacts of carbon emission abatement on GDP are also simulated. The results are compared with those from other sources. The research shows that the marginal abatement costs vary from 12US$/tC to 216US$/tC and the rates of GDP losses relative to reference range from 0.1% to 2.54% for the reduction rates between 5% and 45%. Both the marginal abatement costs and the rates of GDP losses further enlarge on condition that the maximum capacity of nuclear power is constrained to 240 GW or 160 GW by 2050. The paper concludes that China's costs of carbon abatement is rather high in case of carbon emissions are further cut beyond the reference scenario, and China's carbon abatement room is limited due to her coal-dominant energy resource characteristic. As economic development still remains the priority and per capita income as well as per capita carbon emission are far below the world average, it will be more realistic for China to make continuous contributions to combating global climate change by implementing sustainable development strategy domestically and playing an active role in the international carbon mitigation cooperation mechanisms rather than accepting a carbon emission ceiling

Daily global solar radiation modelling using multi-layer perceptron neural networks in semi-arid region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mawloud GUERMOUI

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Accurate estimation of Daily Global Solar Radiation (DGSR has been a major goal for solar energy application. However, solar radiation measurements are not a simple task for several reasons. In the cases where data are not available, it is very common the use of computational models to estimate the missing data, which are based mainly of the search for relationships between weather variables, such as temperature, humidity, sunshine duration, etc. In this respect, the present study focuses on the development of artificial neural network (ANN model for estimation of daily global solar radiation on horizontal surface in Ghardaia city (South Algeria. In this analysis back-propagation algorithm is applied. Daily mean air temperature, relative humidity and sunshine duration was used as climatic inputs parameters, while the daily global solar radiation (DGSR was the only output of the ANN. We have evaluated Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP models to estimate DGSR using three year of measurement (2005-2008. It was found that MLP-model based on sunshine duration and mean air temperature give accurate results in term of Mean Absolute Bias Error, Root Mean Square Error, Relative Square Error and Correlation Coefficient. The obtained values of these indicators are 0.67 MJ/m², 1.28 MJ/m², 6.12%and 98.18%, respectively which shows that MLP is highly qualified for DGSR estimation in semi-arid climates.

Consistency of climate change projections from multiple global and regional model intercomparison projects

Science.gov (United States)

Fernández, J.; Frías, M. D.; Cabos, W. D.; Cofiño, A. S.; Domínguez, M.; Fita, L.; Gaertner, M. A.; García-Díez, M.; Gutiérrez, J. M.; Jiménez-Guerrero, P.; Liguori, G.; Montávez, J. P.; Romera, R.; Sánchez, E.

2018-03-01

We present an unprecedented ensemble of 196 future climate projections arising from different global and regional model intercomparison projects (MIPs): CMIP3, CMIP5, ENSEMBLES, ESCENA, EURO- and Med-CORDEX. This multi-MIP ensemble includes all regional climate model (RCM) projections publicly available to date, along with their driving global climate models (GCMs). We illustrate consistent and conflicting messages using continental Spain and the Balearic Islands as target region. The study considers near future (2021-2050) changes and their dependence on several uncertainty sources sampled in the multi-MIP ensemble: GCM, future scenario, internal variability, RCM, and spatial resolution. This initial work focuses on mean seasonal precipitation and temperature changes. The results show that the potential GCM-RCM combinations have been explored very unevenly, with favoured GCMs and large ensembles of a few RCMs that do not respond to any ensemble design. Therefore, the grand-ensemble is weighted towards a few models. The selection of a balanced, credible sub-ensemble is challenged in this study by illustrating several conflicting responses between the RCM and its driving GCM and among different RCMs. Sub-ensembles from different initiatives are dominated by different uncertainty sources, being the driving GCM the main contributor to uncertainty in the grand-ensemble. For this analysis of the near future changes, the emission scenario does not lead to a strong uncertainty. Despite the extra computational effort, for mean seasonal changes, the increase in resolution does not lead to important changes.

visPIG--a web tool for producing multi-region, multi-track, multi-scale plots of genetic data.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matthew Scales

Full Text Available We present VISual Plotting Interface for Genetics (visPIG; http://vispig.icr.ac.uk, a web application to produce multi-track, multi-scale, multi-region plots of genetic data. visPIG has been designed to allow users not well versed with mathematical software packages and/or programming languages such as R, Matlab®, Python, etc., to integrate data from multiple sources for interpretation and to easily create publication-ready figures. While web tools such as the UCSC Genome Browser or the WashU Epigenome Browser allow custom data uploads, such tools are primarily designed for data exploration. This is also true for the desktop-run Integrative Genomics Viewer (IGV. Other locally run data visualisation software such as Circos require significant computer skills of the user. The visPIG web application is a menu-based interface that allows users to upload custom data tracks and set track-specific parameters. Figures can be downloaded as PDF or PNG files. For sensitive data, the underlying R code can also be downloaded and run locally. visPIG is multi-track: it can display many different data types (e.g association, functional annotation, intensity, interaction, heat map data,…. It also allows annotation of genes and other custom features in the plotted region(s. Data tracks can be plotted individually or on a single figure. visPIG is multi-region: it supports plotting multiple regions, be they kilo- or megabases apart or even on different chromosomes. Finally, visPIG is multi-scale: a sub-region of particular interest can be 'zoomed' in. We describe the various features of visPIG and illustrate its utility with examples. visPIG is freely available through http://vispig.icr.ac.uk under a GNU General Public License (GPLv3.

Projected impacts of climate change on regional capacities for global plant species richness.

Science.gov (United States)

Sommer, Jan Henning; Kreft, Holger; Kier, Gerold; Jetz, Walter; Mutke, Jens; Barthlott, Wilhelm

2010-08-07

Climate change represents a major challenge to the maintenance of global biodiversity. To date, the direction and magnitude of net changes in the global distribution of plant diversity remain elusive. We use the empirical multi-variate relationships between contemporary water-energy dynamics and other non-climatic predictor variables to model the regional capacity for plant species richness (CSR) and its projected future changes. We find that across all analysed Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios, relative changes in CSR increase with increased projected temperature rise. Between now and 2100, global average CSR is projected to remain similar to today (+0.3%) under the optimistic B1/+1.8 degrees C scenario, but to decrease significantly (-9.4%) under the 'business as usual' A1FI/+4.0 degrees C scenario. Across all modelled scenarios, the magnitude and direction of CSR change are geographically highly non-uniform. While in most temperate and arctic regions, a CSR increase is expected, the projections indicate a strong decline in most tropical and subtropical regions. Countries least responsible for past and present greenhouse gas emissions are likely to incur disproportionately large future losses in CSR, whereas industrialized countries have projected moderate increases. Independent of direction, we infer that all changes in regional CSR will probably induce on-site species turnover and thereby be a threat to native floras.

Energy-climate-manufacturing nexus: New insights from the regional and global supply chains of manufacturing industries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kucukvar, Murat; Cansev, Bunyamin; Egilmez, Gokhan; Onat, Nuri C.; Samadi, Hamidreza

2016-01-01

Highlights: • A multi region input–output sustainability assessment model is developed. • Energy-climate-manufacturing nexus within the context of global supply chains is investigated. • Electricity, Gas, and Water Supply sector is the main contributor to energy and carbon impacts. • Turkish regional manufacturing accounts for approximately 40–60% of total carbon emissions. • China, USA, and Rest-of-the World have the largest shares in the Turkish global energy footprint. - Abstract: The main objectives of this research are to improve our understanding of energy-climate-manufacturing nexus within the context of regional and global manufacturing supply chains as well as show the significance of full coverage of entire supply chain tiers in order to prevent significant underestimations, which might lead to invalid policy conclusions. With this motivation, a multi region input–output (MRIO) sustainability assessment model is developed by using the World Input–Output Database, which is a dynamic MRIO framework on the world’s 40 largest economies covering 1440 economic sectors. The method presented in this study is the first environmentally-extended MRIO model that harmonizes energy and carbon footprint accounts for Turkish manufacturing sectors and a global trade-linked carbon and energy footprint analysis of Turkish manufacturing sectors is performed as a case study. The results are presented by distinguishing the contributions of five common supply chain phases such as upstream suppliers, onsite manufacturing, transportation, wholesale, and retail trade. The findings showed that onsite and upstream supply chains are found to have over 90% of total energy use and carbon footprint for all industrial sectors. Electricity, Gas and Water Supply sector is usually found to be as the main contributor to global climate change, and Coke, Refined Petroleum, and Nuclear Fuel sector is the main driver of energy use in upstream supply chains. Overall, the

Multi-model ensemble projections of European river floods and high flows at 1.5, 2, and 3 degrees global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Thober, Stephan; Kumar, Rohini; Wanders, Niko; Marx, Andreas; Pan, Ming; Rakovec, Oldrich; Samaniego, Luis; Sheffield, Justin; Wood, Eric F.; Zink, Matthias

2018-01-01

Severe river floods often result in huge economic losses and fatalities. Since 1980, almost 1500 such events have been reported in Europe. This study investigates climate change impacts on European floods under 1.5, 2, and 3 K global warming. The impacts are assessed employing a multi-model ensemble containing three hydrologic models (HMs: mHM, Noah-MP, PCR-GLOBWB) forced by five CMIP5 general circulation models (GCMs) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5). This multi-model ensemble is unprecedented with respect to the combination of its size (45 realisations) and its spatial resolution, which is 5 km over the entirety of Europe. Climate change impacts are quantified for high flows and flood events, represented by 10% exceedance probability and annual maxima of daily streamflow, respectively. The multi-model ensemble points to the Mediterranean region as a hotspot of changes with significant decrements in high flows from -11% at 1.5 K up to -30% at 3 K global warming mainly resulting from reduced precipitation. Small changes (impacts of global warming could be similar under 1.5 K and 2 K global warming, but have to account for significantly higher changes under 3 K global warming.

Eurasian Economic Union Foundation : Issues of Global Regionalization

OpenAIRE

Lagutina, Maria

2014-01-01

This paper is devoted to the theoretical conceptualization of political-economic processes within the Eurasian Economic Union. The author elaborates on this project within the framework of “global regionalization” and regards it as a fledging “global region.” In this paper, the European Union is analyzed as a model of the existing global region. The Eurasian region also has its own specific traits and experience of post-Soviet integration. The article argues that for successful Eurasian integ...

Multi-model ensemble projections of European river floods and high flows at 1.5, 2, and 3 degree global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Thober, S.; Kumar, R.; Wanders, N.; Marx, A.; Pan, M.; Rakovec, O.; Samaniego, L. E.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Zink, M.

2017-12-01

Severe river floods often result in huge economic losses and fatalities. Since 1980, almost 1500 such events have been reported in Europe. This study investigates climate change impacts on European floods under 1.5, 2, and 3 K global warming. The impacts are assessed employing a multi-model ensemble containing three hydrologic models (HMs: mHM, Noah-MP, PCR-GLOBWB) forced by five CMIP5 General Circulation Models (GCMs) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5). This multi-model ensemble is unprecedented with respect to the combination of its size (45 realisations) and its spatial resolution, which is 5 km over entire Europe. Climate change impacts are quantified for high flows and flood events, represented by 10% exceedance probability and annual maxima of daily streamflow, respectively. The multi-model ensemble points to the Mediterranean region as a hotspot of changes with significant decrements in high flows from -11% at 1.5 K up to -30% at 3 K global warming mainly resulting from reduced precipitation. Small changes (< ±10%) are observed for river basins in Central Europe and the British Isles under different levels of warming. Projected higher annual precipitation increases high flows in Scandinavia, but reduced snow water equivalent decreases flood events in this region. The contribution by the GCMs to the overall uncertainties of the ensemble is in general higher than that by the HMs. The latter, however, have a substantial share of the overall uncertainty and exceed GCM uncertainty in the Mediterranean and Scandinavia. Adaptation measures for limiting the impacts of global warming could be similar under 1.5 K and 2 K global warming, but has to account for significantly higher changes under 3 K global warming.

Global, Local, or Regional?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Verbeke, Alain; Geisler Asmussen, Christian

2016-01-01

of analysis, in addition to the country-level and the global level. Regional strategy analysis requires a fundamental rethink of mainstream theories in the international strategy sphere. This rethink involves, inter alia, internalization theory, with its resource-based view and transaction cost economics...

A Dynamic Multi-Level Factor Model with Long-Range Dependence

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ergemen, Yunus Emre; Rodríguez-Caballero, Carlos Vladimir

A dynamic multi-level factor model with stationary or nonstationary global and regional factors is proposed. In the model, persistence in global and regional common factors as well as innovations allows for the study of fractional cointegrating relationships. Estimation of global and regional...

An Image Matching Algorithm Integrating Global SRTM and Image Segmentation for Multi-Source Satellite Imagery

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiao Ling

2016-08-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a novel image matching method for multi-source satellite images, which integrates global Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM data and image segmentation to achieve robust and numerous correspondences. This method first generates the epipolar lines as a geometric constraint assisted by global SRTM data, after which the seed points are selected and matched. To produce more reliable matching results, a region segmentation-based matching propagation is proposed in this paper, whereby the region segmentations are extracted by image segmentation and are considered to be a spatial constraint. Moreover, a similarity measure integrating Distance, Angle and Normalized Cross-Correlation (DANCC, which considers geometric similarity and radiometric similarity, is introduced to find the optimal correspondences. Experiments using typical satellite images acquired from Resources Satellite-3 (ZY-3, Mapping Satellite-1, SPOT-5 and Google Earth demonstrated that the proposed method is able to produce reliable and accurate matching results.

Multi-Model Projections of River Flood Risk in Europe under Global Warming

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lorenzo Alfieri

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Knowledge on the costs of natural disasters under climate change is key information for planning adaptation and mitigation strategies of future climate policies. Impact models for large scale flood risk assessment have made leaps forward in the past few years, thanks to the increased availability of high resolution climate projections and of information on local exposure and vulnerability to river floods. Yet, state-of-the-art flood impact models rely on a number of input data and techniques that can substantially influence their results. This work compares estimates of river flood risk in Europe from three recent case studies, assuming global warming scenarios of 1.5, 2, and 3 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels. The assessment is based on comparing ensemble projections of expected damage and population affected at country level. Differences and common points between the three cases are shown, to point out main sources of uncertainty, strengths, and limitations. In addition, the multi-model comparison helps identify regions with the largest agreement on specific changes in flood risk. Results show that global warming is linked to substantial increase in flood risk over most countries in Central and Western Europe at all warming levels. In Eastern Europe, the average change in flood risk is smaller and the multi-model agreement is poorer.

Regionalizing global climate models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pitman, A.J.; Arneth, A.; Ganzeveld, L.N.

2012-01-01

Global climate models simulate the Earth's climate impressively at scales of continents and greater. At these scales, large-scale dynamics and physics largely define the climate. At spatial scales relevant to policy makers, and to impacts and adaptation, many other processes may affect regional and

Cost-benefit analysis of multi-regional nuclear energy systems deployment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Den Durpel, L.G.G.; Wade, D.C.; Yacout, A.M.

2007-01-01

The paper describes the preliminary results of a cost/benefit-analysis of multi-regional nuclear energy system approaches with a focus on how multi-regional approaches may benefit a growing nuclear energy system in various world regions also being able to limit, or even reduce, the costs associated with the nuclear fuel cycle and facilitating the introduction of nuclear energy in various regions in the world. The paper highlights the trade-off one might envisage in deploying such multi-regional approaches but also the pay backs possible and concludes on the economical benefits one may associate to regional fuel cycle centres serving a world-fleet of STAR (small fast reactors of long refueling interval) where these STARs may be competitive compared to the LWRs (Light Water Reactors) as a base-case nuclear reactor option. (authors)

Market penetration analysis of fuel cell vehicles in Japan by using the energy system model MARKAL

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Endo, Eiichi

2007-01-01

The objective of the present work is to validate the hydrogen energy roadmap of Japan by analyzing the market penetration of fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) and the effects of a carbon tax using an energy system model of Japan based on MARKAL. The results of the analysis show that a hydrogen FCV would not be cost competitive until 2050 without a more severe carbon tax than the government's planned 2400 JPY/t-C carbon tax. However, as the carbon tax rate increases, instead of conventional vehicles including the gasoline hybrid electric vehicle, hydrogen FCVs gain market penetration earlier and more. By assuming a more severe carbon tax rate, such as 10 000 JPY/t-C, the market share of hydrogen FCVs approaches the governmental goal. This suggests that cheaper vehicle cost and hydrogen cost than those targeted in the roadmap should be attained or subsidies to hydrogen FCV and hydrogen refueling station will be necessary for achieving the goal of earlier market penetration. (author)

Cooperation for Development, Brazilian Regional Leadership and Global Protagonism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leticia Pinheiro

2014-08-01

Full Text Available This article aims to analyze Brazil’s policy towards South America during Luiz Inácio "Lula" da Silva’s government by discussing what kind of leadership the country was able to perform in the region during this time. The authors examine the role played by the policy of International Cooperation for Development on such regional leadership. The central argument is that although Brazil has performed the role of a regional leader, there is a need for distinguishing leadership for regional matters – inwards regional leadership – from leadership for global issues – outwards regional leadership. We argue that inwards regional leadership was in fact successfully performed by Brazil in South America, mainly due to its role as a Development Leader. On the other hand, we also verified that such leadership for regional matters did not always allow Brazil to act on behalf of the entire region on the global arena. Nevertheless, we argue that Brazilian diplomacy left behind the belief that, in order to have global protagonism, the country should use South America as a regional launching platform. Instead, Brazil has been making use of global coalitions such as IBSA and BRICS to boost its global role.

Regional and global exergy and energy efficiencies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nakicenovic, N; Kurz, R [International Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Austria). Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies (Ecuador) Project; Gilli, P V [Graz Univ. of Technology (Austria)

1996-03-01

We present estimates of global energy efficiency by applying second-law (exergy) analysis to regional and global energy balances. We use a uniform analysis of national and regional energy balances and aggregate these balances first for three main economic regions and subsequently into world totals. The procedure involves assessment of energy and exergy efficiencies at each step of energy conversion, from primary exergy to final and useful exergy. Ideally, the analysis should be extended to include actual delivered energy services; unfortunately, data are scarce and only rough estimates can be given for this last stage of energy conversion. The overall result is that the current global primary to useful exergy efficiency is about one-tenth of the theoretical maximum and the service efficiency is even lower. (Author)

The Influence of Globalization on Caspian Region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. . Chernitsyna

2016-01-01

Full Text Available During last several years the Caspian region has to face the integration into global international process. Long and hard process of globalization is connected not only with the dissolution of the USSR and the emergence of new regional players, but also the desire of extra-regional countries to participate, monitor and control all aspects of life in this region, including energy potential, transport, cultural, ecological and strategic issues. The situation is complicated by the uncertainty of the legal status and the conflict of interest of some extra-regional participants. Until recently, Caspian regional countries were not ready to solve old familiar aches without the biggest international players, such as the USA, China, EU etc. However the safety of the region requires decisions for the benefit of the region in the whole and each country separately.

Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways: Quantified West African food and climate futures in a global context.

Science.gov (United States)

Palazzo, Amanda; Vervoort, Joost M; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Rutting, Lucas; Havlík, Petr; Islam, Shahnila; Bayala, Jules; Valin, Hugo; Kadi Kadi, Hamé Abdou; Thornton, Philip; Zougmore, Robert

2017-07-01

The climate change research community's shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are a set of alternative global development scenarios focused on mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. To use these scenarios as a global context that is relevant for policy guidance at regional and national levels, they have to be connected to an exploration of drivers and challenges informed by regional expertise. In this paper, we present scenarios for West Africa developed by regional stakeholders and quantified using two global economic models, GLOBIOM and IMPACT, in interaction with stakeholder-generated narratives and scenario trends and SSP assumptions. We present this process as an example of linking comparable scenarios across levels to increase coherence with global contexts, while presenting insights about the future of agriculture and food security under a range of future drivers including climate change. In these scenarios, strong economic development increases food security and agricultural development. The latter increases crop and livestock productivity leading to an expansion of agricultural area within the region while reducing the land expansion burden elsewhere. In the context of a global economy, West Africa remains a large consumer and producer of a selection of commodities. However, the growth in population coupled with rising incomes leads to increases in the region's imports. For West Africa, climate change is projected to have negative effects on both crop yields and grassland productivity, and a lack of investment may exacerbate these effects. Linking multi-stakeholder regional scenarios to the global SSPs ensures scenarios that are regionally appropriate and useful for policy development as evidenced in the case study, while allowing for a critical link to global contexts.

Global characteristics of extreme winters from a multi-millennial simulation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hunt, B.G. [CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, PO Box 1, Aspendale (Australia)

2011-10-15

Output from a multi-millennial simulation with the CSIRO Mark 2 coupled global climatic model has been analysed to determine the principal characteristics of extreme winters over the globe for ''present conditions''. Thus, this study is not concerned with possible changes in winter conditions associated with anthropogenically induced climatic change. Defining an extreme winter as having a surface temperature anomaly of below -2 standard deviations (sd) revealed a general occurrence rate over the globe of between 100 and 200 over a 6,000-year period of the simulation, with somewhat higher values over northwest North America. For temperature anomalies below -3 sd the corresponding occurrence rate drops to about 10. Spatial correlation studies revealed that extreme winters over regions in Europe, North America or Asia were very limited geographically, with time series of the surface temperature anomalies for these regions having mutual correlation coefficients of about 0.2. The temporal occurrence rates of winters (summers) having sd below -3 (above +3) were very asymmetric and sporadic, suggesting that such events arise from stochastic influences. Multi-year sequences of extreme winters were comparatively rare events. Detailed analysis revealed that the temporal and spatial evolution of the monthly surface temperature anomalies associated with an individual extreme winter were well replicated in the simulation, as were daily time series of such anomalies. Apart from an influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on extreme winters in Europe, other prominent climatic oscillations were very poorly correlated with such winters. Rather modest winter temperature anomalies were found in the southern hemisphere. (orig.)

Highly accurate potential calculations for cylindrically symmetric geometries using multi-region FDM: A review

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Edwards, David, E-mail: dej@kingcon.com [IJL Research Center, Newark, VT 05871 (United States)

2011-07-21

This paper is a review of multi-region FDM, a numerical technique for accurately determining electrostatic potentials in cylindrically symmetric geometries. Multi-region FDM can be thought of as the union of various individual elements: a single region FDM process: a method for algorithmic development; a method for auto creating a multi-region structure; the process for the relaxation of multi-region structures. Each element will be briefly described along with its integration into the multi-region relaxation process itself.

Global multi-scale segmentation of continental and coastal waters from the watersheds to the continental margins

KAUST Repository

Laruelle, G. G.; Dü rr, H. H.; Lauerwald, R.; Hartmann, J.; Slomp, C. P.; Goossens, N.; Regnier, P. A. G.

2013-01-01

Past characterizations of the land-ocean continuum were constructed either from a continental perspective through an analysis of watershed river basin properties (COSCATs: COastal Segmentation and related CATchments) or from an oceanic perspective, through a regionalization of the proximal and distal continental margins (LMEs: large marine ecosystems). Here, we present a global-scale coastal segmentation, composed of three consistent levels, that includes the whole aquatic continuum with its riverine, estuarine and shelf sea components. Our work delineates comprehensive ensembles by harmonizing previous segmentations and typologies in order to retain the most important physical characteristics of both the land and shelf areas. The proposed multi-scale segmentation results in a distribution of global exorheic watersheds, estuaries and continental shelf seas among 45 major zones (MARCATS: MARgins and CATchments Segmentation) and 149 sub-units (COSCATs). Geographic and hydrologic parameters such as the surface area, volume and freshwater residence time are calculated for each coastal unit as well as different hypsometric profiles. Our analysis provides detailed insights into the distributions of coastal and continental shelf areas and how they connect with incoming riverine fluxes. The segmentation is also used to re-evaluate the global estuarine CO2 flux at the air-water interface combining global and regional average emission rates derived from local studies. © 2013 Author(s).

Global multi-scale segmentation of continental and coastal waters from the watersheds to the continental margins

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. G. Laruelle

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Past characterizations of the land–ocean continuum were constructed either from a continental perspective through an analysis of watershed river basin properties (COSCATs: COastal Segmentation and related CATchments or from an oceanic perspective, through a regionalization of the proximal and distal continental margins (LMEs: large marine ecosystems. Here, we present a global-scale coastal segmentation, composed of three consistent levels, that includes the whole aquatic continuum with its riverine, estuarine and shelf sea components. Our work delineates comprehensive ensembles by harmonizing previous segmentations and typologies in order to retain the most important physical characteristics of both the land and shelf areas. The proposed multi-scale segmentation results in a distribution of global exorheic watersheds, estuaries and continental shelf seas among 45 major zones (MARCATS: MARgins and CATchments Segmentation and 149 sub-units (COSCATs. Geographic and hydrologic parameters such as the surface area, volume and freshwater residence time are calculated for each coastal unit as well as different hypsometric profiles. Our analysis provides detailed insights into the distributions of coastal and continental shelf areas and how they connect with incoming riverine fluxes. The segmentation is also used to re-evaluate the global estuarine CO2 flux at the air–water interface combining global and regional average emission rates derived from local studies.

Global multi-scale segmentation of continental and coastal waters from the watersheds to the continental margins

KAUST Repository

Laruelle, G. G.

2012-10-04

Past characterizations of the land–ocean continuum were constructed either from a continental perspective through an analysis of watershed river basin properties (COSCATs: COastal Segmentation and related CATchments) or from an oceanic perspective, through a regionalization of the proximal and distal continental margins (LMEs: large marine ecosystems). Here, we present a global-scale coastal segmentation, composed of three consistent levels, that includes the whole aquatic continuum with its riverine, estuarine and shelf sea components. Our work delineates comprehensive ensembles by harmonizing previous segmentations and typologies in order to retain the most important physical characteristics of both the land and shelf areas. The proposed multi-scale segmentation results in a distribution of global exorheic watersheds, estuaries and continental shelf seas among 45 major zones (MARCATS: MARgins and CATchments Segmentation) and 149 sub-units (COSCATs). Geographic and hydrologic parameters such as the surface area, volume and freshwater residence time are calculated for each coastal unit as well as different hypsometric pro- files. Our analysis provides detailed insights into the distributions of coastal and continental shelf areas and how they connect with incoming riverine fluxes. The segmentation is also used to re-evaluate the global estuarine CO2 flux at the air–water interface combining global and regional average emission rates derived from local studies.

Global multi-scale segmentation of continental and coastal waters from the watersheds to the continental margins

KAUST Repository

Laruelle, G. G.

2013-05-29

Past characterizations of the land-ocean continuum were constructed either from a continental perspective through an analysis of watershed river basin properties (COSCATs: COastal Segmentation and related CATchments) or from an oceanic perspective, through a regionalization of the proximal and distal continental margins (LMEs: large marine ecosystems). Here, we present a global-scale coastal segmentation, composed of three consistent levels, that includes the whole aquatic continuum with its riverine, estuarine and shelf sea components. Our work delineates comprehensive ensembles by harmonizing previous segmentations and typologies in order to retain the most important physical characteristics of both the land and shelf areas. The proposed multi-scale segmentation results in a distribution of global exorheic watersheds, estuaries and continental shelf seas among 45 major zones (MARCATS: MARgins and CATchments Segmentation) and 149 sub-units (COSCATs). Geographic and hydrologic parameters such as the surface area, volume and freshwater residence time are calculated for each coastal unit as well as different hypsometric profiles. Our analysis provides detailed insights into the distributions of coastal and continental shelf areas and how they connect with incoming riverine fluxes. The segmentation is also used to re-evaluate the global estuarine CO2 flux at the air-water interface combining global and regional average emission rates derived from local studies. © 2013 Author(s).

Multi-Label Object Categorization Using Histograms of Global Relations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mustafa, Wail; Xiong, Hanchen; Kraft, Dirk

2015-01-01

In this paper, we present an object categorization system capable of assigning multiple and related categories for novel objects using multi-label learning. In this system, objects are described using global geometric relations of 3D features. We propose using the Joint SVM method for learning......). The experiments are carried out on a dataset of 100 objects belonging to 13 visual and action-related categories. The results indicate that multi-label methods are able to identify the relation between the dependent categories and hence perform categorization accordingly. It is also found that extracting...

Systems analysis on the condition of market penetration for hydrogen technologies using linear programming model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kato, K.; Ihara, S.

1993-01-01

Hydrogen is expected to be an important energy carrier, especially in the frame of global warming problem solution. The purpose of this study is to examine the condition of market penetration of hydrogen technologies in reducing CO 2 emissions. A multi-time-period linear programming model (MARKAL, Market Allocation)) is used to explore technology options and cost for meeting the energy demands while reducing CO 2 emissions from energy systems. The results show that hydrogen technologies become economical when CO 2 emissions are stringently constrained. 9 figs., 2 refs

Multi-scale Regions from Edge Fragments

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kazmi, Wajahat; Andersen, Hans Jørgen

2014-01-01

In this article we introduce a novel method for detecting multi-scale salient regions around edges using a graph based image compression algorithm. Images are recursively decomposed into triangles arranged into a binary tree using linear interpolation. The entropy of any local region of the image......), their performance is comparable to SIFT (Lowe, 2004).We also show that when they are used together with MSERs (Matas et al., 2002), the performance of MSERs is boosted....

Application of multi-source waveform inversion to marine streamer data using the global correlation norm

KAUST Repository

Choi, Yun Seok

2012-05-02

Conventional multi-source waveform inversion using an objective function based on the least-square misfit cannot be applied to marine streamer acquisition data because of inconsistent acquisition geometries between observed and modelled data. To apply the multi-source waveform inversion to marine streamer data, we use the global correlation between observed and modelled data as an alternative objective function. The new residual seismogram derived from the global correlation norm attenuates modelled data not supported by the configuration of observed data and thus, can be applied to multi-source waveform inversion of marine streamer data. We also show that the global correlation norm is theoretically the same as the least-square norm of the normalized wavefield. To efficiently calculate the gradient, our method employs a back-propagation algorithm similar to reverse-time migration based on the adjoint-state of the wave equation. In numerical examples, the multi-source waveform inversion using the global correlation norm results in better inversion results for marine streamer acquisition data than the conventional approach. © 2012 European Association of Geoscientists & Engineers.

Global forward-predicting dynamic routing for traffic concurrency space stereo multi-layer scale-free network

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xie Wei-Hao; Zhou Bin; Liu En-Xiao; Lu Wei-Dang; Zhou Ting

2015-01-01

Many real communication networks, such as oceanic monitoring network and land environment observation network, can be described as space stereo multi-layer structure, and the traffic in these networks is concurrent. Understanding how traffic dynamics depend on these real communication networks and finding an effective routing strategy that can fit the circumstance of traffic concurrency and enhance the network performance are necessary. In this light, we propose a traffic model for space stereo multi-layer complex network and introduce two kinds of global forward-predicting dynamic routing strategies, global forward-predicting hybrid minimum queue (HMQ) routing strategy and global forward-predicting hybrid minimum degree and queue (HMDQ) routing strategy, for traffic concurrency space stereo multi-layer scale-free networks. By applying forward-predicting strategy, the proposed routing strategies achieve better performances in traffic concurrency space stereo multi-layer scale-free networks. Compared with the efficient routing strategy and global dynamic routing strategy, HMDQ and HMQ routing strategies can optimize the traffic distribution, alleviate the number of congested packets effectively and reach much higher network capacity. (paper)

Tropical rainforests dominate multi-decadal variability of the global carbon cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, X.; Wang, Y. P.; Peng, S.; Rayner, P. J.; Silver, J.; Ciais, P.; Piao, S.; Zhu, Z.; Lu, X.; Zheng, X.

2017-12-01

Recent studies find that inter-annual variability of global atmosphere-to-land CO2 uptake (NBP) is dominated by semi-arid ecosystems. However, the NBP variations at decadal to multi-decadal timescales are still not known. By developing a basic theory for the role of net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) on NBP and applying it to 100-year simulations of terrestrial ecosystem models forced by observational climate, we find that tropical rainforests dominate the multi-decadal variability of global NBP (48%) rather than the semi-arid lands (35%). The NBP variation at inter-annual timescales is almost 90% contributed by NPP, but across longer timescales is progressively controlled by Rh that constitutes the response from the NPP-derived soil carbon input (40%) and the response of soil carbon turnover rates to climate variability (60%). The NBP variations of tropical rainforests is modulated by the ENSO and the PDO through their significant influences on temperature and precipitation at timescales of 2.5-7 and 25-50 years, respectively. This study highlights the importance of tropical rainforests on the multi-decadal variability of global carbon cycle, suggesting that we need to carefully differentiate the effect of NBP long-term fluctuations associated with ocean-related climate modes on the long-term trend in land sink.

Globalizing Lessons Learned from Regional-scale Observatories

Science.gov (United States)

Glenn, S. M.

2016-02-01

The Mid Atlantic Regional Association Coastal Ocean Observing System (MARACOOS) has accumulated a decade of experience designing, building and operating a Regional Coastal Ocean Observing System for the U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS). MARACOOS serves societal goals and supports scientific discovery at the scale of a Large Marine Ecosystem (LME). Societal themes include maritime safety, ecosystem decision support, coastal inundation, water quality and offshore energy. Scientific results that feed back on societal goals with better products include improved understanding of seasonal transport pathways and their impact on phytoplankton blooms and hypoxia, seasonal evolution of the subsurface Mid Atlantic Cold Pool and its impact on fisheries, biogeochemical transformations in coastal plumes, coastal ocean evolution and impact on hurricane intensities, and storm sediment transport pathways. As the global ocean observing requirements grow to support additional societal needs for information on fisheries and aquaculture, ocean acidification and deoxygenation, water quality and offshore development, global observing will necessarily evolve to include more coastal observations and forecast models at the scale of the world's many LMEs. Here we describe our efforts to share lessons learned between the observatory operators at the regional-scale of the LMEs. Current collaborators are spread across Europe, and also include Korea, Indonesia, Australia, Brazil and South Africa. Specific examples include the development of a world standard QA/QC approach for HF Radar data that will foster the sharing of data between countries, basin-scale underwater glider missions between internationally-distributed glider ports to developed a shared understanding of operations and an ongoing evaluation of the global ocean models in which the regional models for the LME will be nested, and joint training programs to develop the distributed teams of scientists and technicians

Groundwater development stress: Global-scale indices compared to regional modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Alley, William; Clark, Brian R.; Ely, Matt; Faunt, Claudia

2018-01-01

The increased availability of global datasets and technologies such as global hydrologic models and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites have resulted in a growing number of global-scale assessments of water availability using simple indices of water stress. Developed initially for surface water, such indices are increasingly used to evaluate global groundwater resources. We compare indices of groundwater development stress for three major agricultural areas of the United States to information available from regional water budgets developed from detailed groundwater modeling. These comparisons illustrate the potential value of regional-scale analyses to supplement global hydrological models and GRACE analyses of groundwater depletion. Regional-scale analyses allow assessments of water stress that better account for scale effects, the dynamics of groundwater flow systems, the complexities of irrigated agricultural systems, and the laws, regulations, engineering, and socioeconomic factors that govern groundwater use. Strategic use of regional-scale models with global-scale analyses would greatly enhance knowledge of the global groundwater depletion problem.

Reliability ensemble averaging of 21st century projections of terrestrial net primary productivity reduces global and regional uncertainties

Science.gov (United States)

Exbrayat, Jean-François; Bloom, A. Anthony; Falloon, Pete; Ito, Akihiko; Smallman, T. Luke; Williams, Mathew

2018-02-01

Multi-model averaging techniques provide opportunities to extract additional information from large ensembles of simulations. In particular, present-day model skill can be used to evaluate their potential performance in future climate simulations. Multi-model averaging methods have been used extensively in climate and hydrological sciences, but they have not been used to constrain projected plant productivity responses to climate change, which is a major uncertainty in Earth system modelling. Here, we use three global observationally orientated estimates of current net primary productivity (NPP) to perform a reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method using 30 global simulations of the 21st century change in NPP based on the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) business as usual emissions scenario. We find that the three REA methods support an increase in global NPP by the end of the 21st century (2095-2099) compared to 2001-2005, which is 2-3 % stronger than the ensemble ISIMIP mean value of 24.2 Pg C y-1. Using REA also leads to a 45-68 % reduction in the global uncertainty of 21st century NPP projection, which strengthens confidence in the resilience of the CO2 fertilization effect to climate change. This reduction in uncertainty is especially clear for boreal ecosystems although it may be an artefact due to the lack of representation of nutrient limitations on NPP in most models. Conversely, the large uncertainty that remains on the sign of the response of NPP in semi-arid regions points to the need for better observations and model development in these regions.

Servicing a globally broadcast interrupt signal in a multi-threaded computer

Science.gov (United States)

Attinella, John E.; Davis, Kristan D.; Musselman, Roy G.; Satterfield, David L.

2015-12-29

Methods, apparatuses, and computer program products for servicing a globally broadcast interrupt signal in a multi-threaded computer comprising a plurality of processor threads. Embodiments include an interrupt controller indicating in a plurality of local interrupt status locations that a globally broadcast interrupt signal has been received by the interrupt controller. Embodiments also include a thread determining that a local interrupt status location corresponding to the thread indicates that the globally broadcast interrupt signal has been received by the interrupt controller. Embodiments also include the thread processing one or more entries in a global interrupt status bit queue based on whether global interrupt status bits associated with the globally broadcast interrupt signal are locked. Each entry in the global interrupt status bit queue corresponds to a queued global interrupt.

Global change and biogeochemical cycles: The south Asia region

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Mitra, A.P.; DileepKumar, M.; Kumar, K.R.; Abrol, Y.P.; Kalra, N.; Velayutham, M.; Naqvi, S.W.A.

stream_size 33 stream_content_type text/plain stream_name Global-Region_Linkage_Earth_Syst_2002_75.pdf.txt stream_source_info Global-Region_Linkage_Earth_Syst_2002_75.pdf.txt Content-Encoding ISO-8859-1 Content-Type text...

Sensitivity of regional climate to global temperature and forcing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tebaldi, Claudia; O’Neill, Brian; Lamarque, Jean-François

2015-01-01

The sensitivity of regional climate to global average radiative forcing and temperature change is important for setting global climate policy targets and designing scenarios. Setting effective policy targets requires an understanding of the consequences exceeding them, even by small amounts, and the effective design of sets of scenarios requires the knowledge of how different emissions, concentrations, or forcing need to be in order to produce substantial differences in climate outcomes. Using an extensive database of climate model simulations, we quantify how differences in global average quantities relate to differences in both the spatial extent and magnitude of climate outcomes at regional (250–1250 km) scales. We show that differences of about 0.3 °C in global average temperature are required to generate statistically significant changes in regional annual average temperature over more than half of the Earth’s land surface. A global difference of 0.8 °C is necessary to produce regional warming over half the land surface that is not only significant but reaches at least 1 °C. As much as 2.5 to 3 °C is required for a statistically significant change in regional annual average precipitation that is equally pervasive. Global average temperature change provides a better metric than radiative forcing for indicating differences in regional climate outcomes due to the path dependency of the effects of radiative forcing. For example, a difference in radiative forcing of 0.5 W m −2 can produce statistically significant differences in regional temperature over an area that ranges between 30% and 85% of the land surface, depending on the forcing pathway. (letter)

Projection of wave conditions in response to climate change: A community approach to global and regional wave downscaling

Science.gov (United States)

Erikson, Li H.; Hemer, M.; Lionello, Piero; Mendez, Fernando J.; Mori, Nobuhito; Semedo, Alvaro; Wang, Xiaolan; Wolf, Judith

2015-01-01

Future changes in wind-wave climate have broad implications for coastal geomorphology and management. General circulation models (GCM) are now routinely used for assessing climatological parameters, but generally do not provide parameterizations of ocean wind-waves. To fill this information gap, a growing number of studies use GCM outputs to independently downscale wave conditions to global and regional levels. To consolidate these efforts and provide a robust picture of projected changes, we present strategies from the community-derived multi-model ensemble of wave climate projections (COWCLIP) and an overview of regional contributions. Results and strategies from one contributing regional study concerning changes along the eastern North Pacific coast are presented.

A multi-model assessment of the co-benefits of climate mitigation for global air quality

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rao, Shilpa; Klimont, Zbigniew; Leitao, Joana; Riahi, Keywan; van Dingenen, Rita; Reis, Lara Aleluia; Calvin, Katherine; Dentener, Frank; Drouet, Laurent; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harmsen, Mathijs; Luderer, Gunnar; Heyes, Chris; Strefler, Jessica; Tavoni, Massimo; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

2016-12-01

The recent International Panel on Climate change (IPCC) report identifies significant co-benefits from climate policies on near-term ambient air pollution and related human health outcomes [1]. This is increasingly relevant for policy making as the health impacts of air pollution are a major global concern- the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study identifies outdoor air pollution as the sixth major cause of death globally [2]. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are an effective tool to evaluate future air pollution outcomes across a wide range of assumptions on socio-economic development and policy regimes. The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) [3] were the first set of long-term global scenarios developed across multiple integrated assessment models that provided detailed estimates of a number of air pollutants until 2100. However these scenarios were primarily designed to cover a defined range of radiative forcing outcomes and thus did not specifically focus on the interactions of long-term climate goals on near-term air pollution impacts. More recently, [4] used the RCP4.5 scenario to evaluate the co-benefits of global GHG reductions on air quality and human health in 2030. [5-7] have further examined the interactions of more diverse pollution control regimes with climate policies. This paper extends the listed studies in a number of ways. Firstly it uses multiple IAMs to look into the co-benefits of a global climate policy for ambient air pollution under harmonized assumptions on near-term air pollution control. Multi-model frameworks have been extensively used in the analysis of climate change mitigation pathways, and the structural uncertainties regarding the underlying mechanisms (see for example [8-10]. This is to our knowledge the first time that a multi-model evaluation has been specifically designed and applied to analyze the co-benefits of climate change policy on ambient air quality, thus enabling a better understanding of at a detailed

How can accelerated development of bioenergy contribute to the future UK energy mix? Insights from a MARKAL modelling exercise

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anandarajah Gabrial

2009-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background This work explores the potential contribution of bioenergy technologies to 60% and 80% carbon reductions in the UK energy system by 2050, by outlining the potential for accelerated technological development of bioenergy chains. The investigation was based on insights from MARKAL modelling, detailed literature reviews and expert consultations. Due to the number and complexity of bioenergy pathways and technologies in the model, three chains and two underpinning technologies were selected for detailed investigation: (1 lignocellulosic hydrolysis for the production of bioethanol, (2 gasification technologies for heat and power, (3 fast pyrolysis of biomass for bio-oil production, (4 biotechnological advances for second generation bioenergy crops, and (5 the development of agro-machinery for growing and harvesting bioenergy crops. Detailed literature searches and expert consultations (looking inter alia at research and development needs and economic projections led to the development of an 'accelerated' dataset of modelling parameters for each of the selected bioenergy pathways, which were included in five different scenario runs with UK-MARKAL (MED. The results of the 'accelerated runs' were compared with a low-carbon (LC-Core scenario, which assesses the cheapest way to decarbonise the energy sector. Results Bioenergy was deployed in larger quantities in the bioenergy accelerated technological development scenario compared with the LC-Core scenario. In the electricity sector, solid biomass was highly utilised for energy crop gasification, displacing some deployment of wind power, and nuclear and marine to a lesser extent. Solid biomass was also deployed for heat in the residential sector from 2040 in much higher quantities in the bioenergy accelerated technological development scenario compared with LC-Core. Although lignocellulosic ethanol increased, overall ethanol decreased in the transport sector in the bioenergy

Simulating the Agulhas system in global ocean models - nesting vs. multi-resolution unstructured meshes

Science.gov (United States)

Biastoch, Arne; Sein, Dmitry; Durgadoo, Jonathan V.; Wang, Qiang; Danilov, Sergey

2018-01-01

Many questions in ocean and climate modelling require the combined use of high resolution, global coverage and multi-decadal integration length. For this combination, even modern resources limit the use of traditional structured-mesh grids. Here we compare two approaches: A high-resolution grid nested into a global model at coarser resolution (NEMO with AGRIF) and an unstructured-mesh grid (FESOM) which allows to variably enhance resolution where desired. The Agulhas system around South Africa is used as a testcase, providing an energetic interplay of a strong western boundary current and mesoscale dynamics. Its open setting into the horizontal and global overturning circulations also requires global coverage. Both model configurations simulate a reasonable large-scale circulation. Distribution and temporal variability of the wind-driven circulation are quite comparable due to the same atmospheric forcing. However, the overturning circulation differs, owing each model's ability to represent formation and spreading of deep water masses. In terms of regional, high-resolution dynamics, all elements of the Agulhas system are well represented. Owing to the strong nonlinearity in the system, Agulhas Current transports of both configurations and in comparison with observations differ in strength and temporal variability. Similar decadal trends in Agulhas Current transport and Agulhas leakage are linked to the trends in wind forcing.

Global dynamics of multi-group SEI animal disease models with indirect transmission

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Yi; Cao, Jinde

2014-01-01

A challenge to multi-group epidemic models in mathematical epidemiology is the exploration of global dynamics. Here we formulate multi-group SEI animal disease models with indirect transmission via contaminated water. Under biologically motivated assumptions, the basic reproduction number R 0 is derived and established as a sharp threshold that completely determines the global dynamics of the system. In particular, we prove that if R 0 <1, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, and the disease dies out; whereas if R 0 >1, then the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and thus unique, and the disease persists in all groups. Since the weight matrix for weighted digraphs may be reducible, the afore-mentioned approach is not directly applicable to our model. For the proofs we utilize the classical method of Lyapunov, graph-theoretic results developed recently and a new combinatorial identity. Since the multiple transmission pathways may correspond to the real world, the obtained results are of biological significance and possible generalizations of the model are also discussed

Technology learning in a global - local perspective: - the interplay between technology diffusion, niche markets and experience curves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martinsen, Thomas

2010-01-01

Preventing dangerous global climate change requires timely deployment of nascent energy technologies with zero or low Co2 emissions. Managing the shift to a common sustainable technology path calls for insight about the influence of global technological change on the national energy system. Moreover, national policies are required to promote the shift to the new technology path. This calls for methods to analyse the national energy system within a global perspective. The objective of the work presented in this thesis was to investigate interplay between technology diffusion, niche markets and technology learning from the perspective of a small open economy like Norway. More specifically, develop methods to include the influence of technology learning manifested in experience and learning curves into national energy-economy-environment models. Moreover, apply the methods to investigate the potential influence and sensitivity to technology learning in a small open economy. In this thesis three such methods have been developed, applied and its importance assessed using Norway as an example. In this work three models have been linked. They are the global Energy Technology Perspectives model operated by the International Energy Agency, the Norwegian Markal model at the Institute for Energy Technology and the macro economic model MSG6 at Statistics Norway. Method one and two has been developed to manage the interplay between the models. In a local perspective technology learning in the global market is perceived as spillover. Based upon a review of the characteristics of technological change and learning curves and its application to energy system modelling some criteria important for the parameterization and modelling of spillover in a small open economy are suggested. The first method incorporates spillover into the national Markal model. The second method establishes a soft-link between the national models. The soft-link served two purposes; to provide input on demand

Multi-Synchronization Caused by Uniform Disorder for Globally Coupled Maps

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jing-Hui, Li

2008-01-01

We investigate the motion of the globally coupled maps (logistic map) driven by uniform disorder. It is shown that this disorder can produce multi-synchronization for the globally coupled chaotic maps studied by us. The disorder determines the synchronized dynamics, leading to the emergence of a wide range of new collective behaviour in which the individual units in isolation are incapable of producing in the absence of the disorder. Our results imply that the disorder can tame the collective motion of the coupled chaotic maps

GEM-AQ/EC, an on-line global multi-scale chemical weather modelling system: model development and evaluation of global aerosol climatology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. L. Gong

2012-09-01

Full Text Available A global air quality modeling system GEM-AQ/EC was developed by implementing tropospheric chemistry and aerosol processes on-line into the Global Environmental Multiscale weather prediction model – GEM. Due to the multi-scale features of the GEM, the integrated model, GEM-AQ/EC, is able to investigate chemical weather at scales from global to urban domains. The current chemical mechanism is comprised of 50 gas-phase species, 116 chemical and 19 photolysis reactions, and is complemented by a sectional aerosol module CAM (The Canadian Aerosol Module with 5 aerosols types: sulphate, black carbon, organic carbon, sea-salt and soil dust. Monthly emission inventories of black carbon and organic carbon from boreal and temperate vegetation fires were assembled using the most reliable areas burned datasets by countries, from statistical databases and derived from remote sensing products of 1995–2004. The model was run for ten years from from 1995–2004 with re-analyzed meteorology on a global uniform 1° × 1° horizontal resolution domain and 28 hybrid levels extending up to 10 hPa. The simulating results were compared with various observations including surface network around the globe and satellite data. Regional features of global aerosols are reasonably captured including emission, surface concentrations and aerosol optical depth. For various types of aerosols, satisfactory correlations were achieved between modeled and observed with some degree of systematic bias possibly due to large uncertainties in the emissions used in this study. A global distribution of natural aerosol contributions to the total aerosols is obtained and compared with observations.

The regions and global warming: Impacts and response strategies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-01-01

To date, much of the attention given to global warming in scientific research as well as in policy development has focused on the global picture. International negotiations and agreements to stabilize, and eventually reduce, greenhouse gas emissions are very important. By themselves, however, they are not sufficient to address global warming. Regional strategies are also needed. They can help reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and they will be the most effective way to mitigate the consequences of global warming. Adaptive strategies must respond to local and regional conditions. In many countries, subnational jurisdictions such as states and provinces or community organizations can already take effective actions without direction from their national government or waiting for international agreements. An important factor in defining regional approaches is the disparate consequences of climate change for developed and developing areas. Different strategies will also be needed for industrial and agricultural regions. Wealthy industrial regions may be better able to develop capital-intensive, adaptive infrastructure than regions with fewer discretionary resources where people are more vulnerable to the vagaries of weather patterns. On the other hand, regions that rely on indigenous knowledge and local resources may be better equipped to make incremental adaptations and more willing to modify life-styles. Ultimately, all climate change effects are experienced in specific places and effective response depends upon local action. We recognize that individual localities cannot solve a problem of global proportions by acting alone. However, a regional strategy can supplement international and national action and be the focal point for addressing risks in the unique social and economic context of a particular area. These meetings discussions dealt with the impacts and implications of climate change on such things as agriculture, forestry, and policy

Applications of TRMM-based Multi-Satellite Precipitation Estimation for Global Runoff Simulation: Prototyping a Global Flood Monitoring System

Science.gov (United States)

Hong, Yang; Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George J.; Pierce, Harold

2008-01-01

Advances in flood monitoring/forecasting have been constrained by the difficulty in estimating rainfall continuously over space (catchment-, national-, continental-, or even global-scale areas) and flood-relevant time scale. With the recent availability of satellite rainfall estimates at fine time and space resolution, this paper describes a prototype research framework for global flood monitoring by combining real-time satellite observations with a database of global terrestrial characteristics through a hydrologically relevant modeling scheme. Four major components included in the framework are (1) real-time precipitation input from NASA TRMM-based Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA); (2) a central geospatial database to preprocess the land surface characteristics: water divides, slopes, soils, land use, flow directions, flow accumulation, drainage network etc.; (3) a modified distributed hydrological model to convert rainfall to runoff and route the flow through the stream network in order to predict the timing and severity of the flood wave, and (4) an open-access web interface to quickly disseminate flood alerts for potential decision-making. Retrospective simulations for 1998-2006 demonstrate that the Global Flood Monitor (GFM) system performs consistently at both station and catchment levels. The GFM website (experimental version) has been running at near real-time in an effort to offer a cost-effective solution to the ultimate challenge of building natural disaster early warning systems for the data-sparse regions of the world. The interactive GFM website shows close-up maps of the flood risks overlaid on topography/population or integrated with the Google-Earth visualization tool. One additional capability, which extends forecast lead-time by assimilating QPF into the GFM, also will be implemented in the future.

TRANSFER-FUNCTIONS OF A LINEARIZED MULTI-REGION REACTOR

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Higgins, Thomas J.

1963-09-15

The development of the transfer functions for a linearized multi-region reactor is studied, and an illustration is made of application of the corresponding theory by a numerical illustrative example. (auth)

Healthy Cities in a global and regional context

OpenAIRE

Lawrence, Roderick J.; Fudge, Colin

2017-01-01

Since the beginning of the WHO European Healthy Cities Network in 1987, the global and regional contexts for the promotion of health and well-being have changed in many ways. First, in 2000, the United Nations Millennium Goals explicitly and implicitly addressed health promotion and prevention at the global and regional levels. Second, the concern for sustainable development at the Rio Conference in 1992 was confirmed at the World Summit in Johannesburg in 2002. During the same period, in man...

Becoming a region, becoming global, becoming imperceptible

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Blanco, Gustavo; Arce, Alberto; Fisher, Eleanor

2015-01-01

Our article focuses on the region of Chilean Patagonia and considers how it has developed as a leading producer of salmon for global food markets. It addresses the problem of how to decentre conventional views of the forces driving regional development that give primacy to the role of capital and

Assessment and simulation tools for sustainable energy systems theory and applications

CERN Document Server

Cavallaro, Fausto

2013-01-01

This book covers both simulations using markal model and linear programming (LP) and methods and applications of multi-criteria, fuzzy-sets, algorithm genetics and neural nets (artificial intelligence) to energy systems.

Technology Learning Ratios in Global Energy Models; Ratios de Aprendizaje Tecnologico en Modelos Energeticos Globales

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Varela, M.

2001-07-01

The process of introduction of a new technology supposes that while its production and utilisation increases, also its operation improves and its investment costs and production decreases. The accumulation of experience and learning of a new technology increase in parallel with the increase of its market share. This process is represented by the technological learning curves and the energy sector is not detached from this process of substitution of old technologies by new ones. The present paper carries out a brief revision of the main energy models that include the technology dynamics (learning). The energy scenarios, developed by global energy models, assume that the characteristics of the technologies are variables with time. But this tend is incorporated in a exogenous way in these energy models, that is to say, it is only a time function. This practice is applied to the cost indicators of the technology such as the specific investment costs or to the efficiency of the energy technologies. In the last years, the new concept of endogenous technological learning has been integrated within these global energy models. This paper examines the concept of technological learning in global energy models. It also analyses the technological dynamics of the energy systems including the endogenous modelling of the process of technological progress. Finally, it makes a comparison of several of the most used global energy models (MARKAL, MESSAGE and ERIS) and, more concretely, about the use these models make of the concept of technological learning. (Author) 17 refs.

Impact of Geological Changes on Regional and Global Economies

Science.gov (United States)

Tatiana, Skufina; Peter, Skuf'in; Vera, Samarina; Taisiya, Shatalova; Baranov, Sergey

2017-04-01

Periods of geological changes such as super continent cycle (300-500 million years), Wilson's cycles (300-900 million years), magmatic-tectonic cycle (150-200 million years), and cycles with smaller periods (22, 100, 1000 years) lead to a basic contradiction preventing forming methodology of the study of impact of geological changes on the global and regional economies. The reason of this contradiction is the differences of theoretical and methodological aspects of the Earth science and economics such as different time scales and accuracy of geological changes. At the present the geological models cannot provide accurate estimation of time and place where geological changes (strong earthquakes, volcanos) are expected. Places of feature (not next) catastrophic events are the only thing we have known. Thus, it is impossible to use the periodicity to estimate both geological changes and their consequences. Taking into accounts these factors we suggested a collection of concepts for estimating impact of possible geological changes on regional and global economies. We illustrated our approach by example of estimating impact of Tohoku earthquake and tsunami of March 2011 on regional and global economies. Based on this example we concluded that globalization processes increase an impact of geological changes on regional and global levels. The research is supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research (Projects No. 16-06-00056, 16-32-00019, 16-05-00263A).

A Regional Multi-permit Market for Ecosystem Services

Science.gov (United States)

Bernknopf, R.; Amos, P.; Zhang, E.

2014-12-01

Regional cap and trade programs have been in operation since the 1970's to reduce environmental externalities (NOx and SOx emissions) and have been shown to be beneficial. Air quality and water quality limits are enforced through numerous Federal and State laws and regulations while local communities are seeking ways to protect regional green infrastructure and their ecosystems services. Why not combine them in a market approach to reduce many environmental externalities simultaneously? In a multi-permit market program reforestation (land offsets) as part of a nutrient or carbon sequestration trading program would provide a means to reduce agrochemical discharges into streams, rivers, and groundwater. Land conversions also improve the quality and quantity of other environmental externalities such as air pollution. Collocated nonmarket ecosystem services have societal benefits that can expand the crediting system into a multi-permit trading program. At a regional scale it is possible to combine regulation of water quality, air emissions and quality, and habitat conservation and restoration into one program. This research is about the economic feasibility of a Philadelphia regional multi-permit (cap and trade) program for ecosystem services. Instead of establishing individual markets for ecosystem services, the assumption of the spatial portfolio approach is that it is based on the interdependence of ecosystem functions so that market credits encompasses a range of ecosystem services. Using an existing example the components of the approach are described in terms of scenarios of land portfolios and the calculation of expected return on investment and risk. An experiment in the Schuylkill Watershed will be described for ecosystem services such as nutrients in water and populations of bird species along with Green House Gases. The Philadelphia regional market includes the urban - nonurban economic and environmental interactions and impacts.

Global water cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Robertson, Franklin; Goodman, Steven J.; Christy, John R.; Fitzjarrald, Daniel E.; Chou, Shi-Hung; Crosson, William; Wang, Shouping; Ramirez, Jorge

1993-01-01

This research is the MSFC component of a joint MSFC/Pennsylvania State University Eos Interdisciplinary Investigation on the global water cycle extension across the earth sciences. The primary long-term objective of this investigation is to determine the scope and interactions of the global water cycle with all components of the Earth system and to understand how it stimulates and regulates change on both global and regional scales. Significant accomplishments in the past year are presented and include the following: (1) water vapor variability; (2) multi-phase water analysis; (3) global modeling; and (4) optimal precipitation and stream flow analysis and hydrologic processes.

Globalization and suicide: an ecological study across five regions of the world.

Science.gov (United States)

Milner, Allison; McClure, Rod; De Leo, Diego

2012-01-01

The impact of globalization on health is recognized to be influenced by country and regional-level factors. This study aimed to investigate the possible relationship between globalization and suicide in five world regions. An index measure of globalization was developed at the country level over 1980 to 2006. The association between the index and sex specific suicide rates was tested using a fixed-effect regression model. Over time, the globalization index seemed to be associated with increased suicide rates in Asia and the Eastern European/Baltic region. In contrast, it was associated with decreased rates in Scandinavia. There was no significant relationship between globalization and suicide in Southern and Western Europe. The effects of globalization could be determined by specific regional (i.e., cultural and societal) factors. Identification of these mediators might provide opportunities to protect countries from the adverse impacts of globalization.

World Economy at the Confluence between Globalization and Regionalization

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Costel Marian DIMA

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Due to the enlargement and deepening of connections in various spheres of influence of the economic, political, social and cultural life, the problems occurring in the process of globalization are rather global than national, their solving being carried out globally instead of nationally. Thus, in economic and financial terms, globalization contributes to strengthening and enlarging the connections among national economies in the global market of goods, services and capital. In the paper first part, it is presented the current situation of globalization and the need for development at regional level. In the second part, taking into account that the regionalization process varies from country to country, depending on the economic, social, political, demographic and ethnic situation, we showed an analysis of the European Union’s policy of development and cohesion. In the last part, we brought forward the current situation of European development policy, conclusions and views concerning the theme approached.

Multi-model Ensemble Regional Climate Projection of the Maritime Continent using the MIT Regional Climate Model

Science.gov (United States)

Kang, S.; IM, E. S.; Eltahir, E. A. B.

2016-12-01

In this study, the future change in precipitation due to global warming is investigated over the Maritime Continent using the MIT Regional Climate Model (MRCM). A total of nine 30-year projections under multi-GCMs (CCSM, MPI, ACCESS) and multi-scenarios of emissions (Control, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) are dynamically downscaled using the MRCM with 12km horizontal resolution. Since downscaled results tend to systematically overestimate the precipitation regardless of GCM used as lateral boundary conditions, the Parametric Quantile Mapping (PQM) is applied to reduce this wet bias. The cross validation for the control simulation shows that the PQM method seems to retain the spatial pattern and temporal variability of raw simulation, however it effectively reduce the wet bias. Based on ensemble projections produced by dynamical downscaling and statistical bias correction, a reduction of future precipitation is discernible, in particular during dry season (June-July-August). For example, intense precipitation in Singapore is expected to be reduced in RCP8.5 projection compared to control simulation. However, the geographical patterns and magnitude of changes still remain uncertain, suffering from statistical insignificance and a lack of model agreement. Acknowledgements This research is supported by the National Research Foundation Singapore under its Campus for Research Excellence and Technological Enterprise programme. The Center for Environmental Sensing and Modeling is an interdisciplinary research group of the Singapore-MIT Alliance for Research and Technology

Saint Petersburg as a Global Coastal City: Positioning in the Baltic Region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lachininskii Stanislav

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The Baltic region consists of coastal areas of nine countries — Russia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Germany, Denmark, Sweden, and Finland. The region’s hubs are the port cities located along the Baltic Sea coast. However, Peter Taylor and Saskia Sassen’s classification identifies higher status cities and ‘global cities’, which are to be considered in the global context. Seven coastal regions are distinguished within this region, whose organising centers are the global coastal cities of Stockholm, Copenhagen, Helsinki, Riga, Tallinn, St. Petersburg, and Malmö. The concept of a “global city-region” (Sassen can be used as a methodological framework for analyzing this connection. Within this hierarchy, the dominant alpha group global city is Stockholm. The authors argue that, as a global coastal city, St. Petersburg forms the St. Petersburg coastal region, which can be defined as a typical "global city region". The index method shows that the position of St. Petersburg in the system of global coastal cities of the Baltic region is relatively favorable in view of its transport, logistics, and demographic potential and the advantageous geo-economic situation. St. Petersburg has certain competitive advantages in the region brought about by its demographic potential, port freight capacity, and the favorable geo-economic position of the "sea gate" of Russia. However, the level of high-tech services and ‘new economy’ development is not sufficient for the port to become a match for the top three cities (Stockholm, Helsinki, and Copenhagen. This is increasingly important because transboundary global city networks demonstrate that global cities are functions of global networks. Saint Petersburg is just starting to integrate into these networks through the Pulkovo airline hub and seaports of Ust-Luga, Primorsk, and Saint Petersburg.

Saint Petersburg as a Global Coastal City: Positioning in the Baltic Region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lachninsky S.

2015-08-01

Full Text Available The Baltic region consists of coastal areas of nine countries — Russia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Germany, Denmark, Sweden, and Finland. The region’s hubs are the port cities located along the Baltic Sea coast. However, Peter Taylor and Saskia Sassen’s classification identifies higher status cities and ‘global cities’, which are to be considered in the global context. Seven coastal regions are distinguished within this region, whose organising centers are the global coastal cities of Stockholm, Copenhagen, Helsinki, Riga, Tallinn, St. Petersburg, and Malmö. The concept of a “global city-region” (Sassen can be used as a methodological framework for analyzing this connection. Within this hierarchy, the dominant alpha group global city is Stockholm. The authors argue that, as a global coastal city, St. Petersburg forms the St. Petersburg coastal region, which can be defined as a typical "global city region". The index method shows that the position of St. Petersburg in the system of global coastal cities of the Baltic region is relatively favorable in view of its transport, logistics, and demographic potential and the advantageous geo-economic situation. St. Petersburg has certain competitive advantages in the region brought about by its demographic potential, port freight capacity, and the favorable geo-economic position of the "sea gate" of Russia. However, the level of high-tech services and ‘new economy’ development is not sufficient for the port to become a match for the top three cities (Stockholm, Helsinki, and Copenhagen. This is increasingly important because transboundary global city networks demonstrate that global cities are functions of global networks. Saint Petersburg is just starting to integrate into these networks through the Pulkovo airline hub and seaports of Ust-Luga, Primorsk, and Saint Petersburg.

75 FR 33613 - Notice of Interviews, Teleconferences, Regional Workshops and Multi-Stakeholder Technical...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-06-14

..., Regional Workshops and Multi-Stakeholder Technical Conference on the Integrated Licensing Process June 7... conducting interviews and teleconferences with a cross-section of stakeholders, four regional workshops, and a multi- stakeholder effectiveness technical conference in Washington, DC. To facilitate this review...

Global rule-setting for business: A critical analysis of multi-stakeholder standards

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fransen, L.W.; Kolk, A.

2007-01-01

In the field of global rule-setting for responsible business behaviour, multi-stakeholder standards have emerged in recent years because of their potential for effective consensus-building, knowledgesharing and interest representation. Proponents also hold that multistakeholder standards could

Dynamics of Multi-Scale Intra-Provincial Regional Inequality in Zhejiang, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wenze Yue

2014-08-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates regional inequality in a multi-scale framework, using Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis, based on the per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP of counties and municipalities within the Zhejiang province in China between the years of 1990 and 2010. A Spatial Markov Chain is used to identify the dynamics of regional wealth disparity in Zhejiang. The results show that the regional inequality of Zhejiang is sensitive to the geographic scale of the analysis. In addition, the inter-county inequality shows an inverted-U shape pattern. At the same time, the inter-municipality inequality displays a more consistently upward trend, and the evolution of the interregional inequality is relatively stable over time. The regional inequality is more significant at finer (larger spatial scales. The decomposition of the Theil Index shows that the contribution of the inequalities between Northeast Zhejiang and Southwest Zhejiang increased. The increasingly larger values of the Global Moran’s I show that there is an intensifying spatial aggregation of economic development. The comparison of the traditional Markov transition matrix and the Spatial Markov transition matrix illustrates how the relative wealth or poverty of neighboring counties make a significance difference in wealth in a given county as measured using domestic GDP per capita in Zhejiang province. This space-time analysis is valuable for policy making towards sustainable economic development in China given the soaring spatial inequality.

Inter-relations between regional and global approaches to nuclear non-proliferation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simpson, J.

1995-01-01

It is now becoming evident that the end of the East-West conflict has had a significant effect upon both global and regional security structures. From a situation where regional arrangements were, in the main, determined and driven by pressures arising from the bipolar division which permeated all aspects of the global political system, they increasingly have an independent existence. This has enabled such arrangements to be tailored to local circumstances in a manner which is not possible with global agreements. In particular, it has become apparent that enhanced constraints on peaceful nuclear activities and much more intrusive inspection and monitoring procedures, can more easily be negotiated on a regional basis than a global one. It also appears that nuclear weapon states are prepared to make unconditional commitments about nuclear weapon use on a regional basis, whereas they may not be prepared to do so on a global one. In short, regional approaches enable fine-tuning of the international non-proliferation regime to occur, and for measures to be taken on a regional level that would be politically unacceptable on the global level, due to their discriminatory nature. In the years ahead additional Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone (NWFZ) agreements may be negotiated, covering more of the land area of the globe. In parallel, regional nuclear cooperation and safeguarding agreements might also be expected to develop along the lines of EURATOM and ABACC. This in turn may move the states which remain outside of the NPT to a similar position to Argentina and Brazil at the moment: to an acceptance that whatever their opposition in principle to the NPT and the system of supplier export guidelines, the commitments they have already accepted on a regional level are more intrusive and constraining than those they would incur if they were to have acceded to the Treaty. In these circumstances, accession to the NPT becomes a distinct possibility, and thus the regional approach to non

Co-benefits of global and regional greenhouse gas mitigation for US air quality in 2050

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhang, Yuqiang; Bowden, Jared H.; Adelman, Zachariah; Naik, Vaishali; Horowitz, Larry W.; Smith, Steven J.; West, J. Jason

2016-08-01

Policies to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will not only slow climate change but can also have ancillary benefits of improved air quality. Here we examine the co-benefits of both global and regional GHG mitigation for US air quality in 2050 at fine resolution, using dynamical downscaling methods, building on a previous global co-benefits study (West et al., 2013). The co-benefits for US air quality are quantified via two mechanisms: through reductions in co-emitted air pollutants from the same sources and by slowing climate change and its influence on air quality, following West et al. (2013). Additionally, we separate the total co-benefits into contributions from domestic GHG mitigation vs. mitigation in foreign countries. We use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to dynamically downscale future global climate to the regional scale and the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) program to directly process global anthropogenic emissions to the regional domain, and we provide dynamical boundary conditions from global simulations to the regional Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. The total co-benefits of global GHG mitigation from the RCP4.5 scenario compared with its reference are estimated to be higher in the eastern US (ranging from 0.6 to 1.0 µg m^-3) than the west (0–0.4 µg m^-3) for fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), with an average of 0.47 µg m^-3 over the US; for O₃, the total co-benefits are more uniform at 2–5 ppb, with a US average of 3.55 ppb. Comparing the two mechanisms of co-benefits, we find that reductions in co-emitted air pollutants have a much greater influence on both PM_2.5 (96 % of the total co-benefits) and O₃ (89 % of the total) than the second co-benefits mechanism via slowing climate change, consistent with West et al. (2013). GHG mitigation from foreign countries contributes more to the US O₃ reduction

Global multi-resolution terrain elevation data 2010 (GMTED2010)

Science.gov (United States)

Danielson, Jeffrey J.; Gesch, Dean B.

2011-01-01

In 1996, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) developed a global topographic elevation model designated as GTOPO30 at a horizontal resolution of 30 arc-seconds for the entire Earth. Because no single source of topographic information covered the entire land surface, GTOPO30 was derived from eight raster and vector sources that included a substantial amount of U.S. Defense Mapping Agency data. The quality of the elevation data in GTOPO30 varies widely; there are no spatially-referenced metadata, and the major topographic features such as ridgelines and valleys are not well represented. Despite its coarse resolution and limited attributes, GTOPO30 has been widely used for a variety of hydrological, climatological, and geomorphological applications as well as military applications, where a regional, continental, or global scale topographic model is required. These applications have ranged from delineating drainage networks and watersheds to using digital elevation data for the extraction of topographic structure and three-dimensional (3D) visualization exercises (Jenson and Domingue, 1988; Verdin and Greenlee, 1996; Lehner and others, 2008). Many of the fundamental geophysical processes active at the Earth's surface are controlled or strongly influenced by topography, thus the critical need for high-quality terrain data (Gesch, 1994). U.S. Department of Defense requirements for mission planning, geographic registration of remotely sensed imagery, terrain visualization, and map production are similarly dependent on global topographic data. Since the time GTOPO30 was completed, the availability of higher-quality elevation data over large geographic areas has improved markedly. New data sources include global Digital Terrain Elevation Data (DTEDRegistered) from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), Canadian elevation data, and data from the Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat). Given the widespread use of GTOPO30 and the equivalent 30-arc

Multi-region relaxed magnetohydrodynamics with flow

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dennis, G. R., E-mail: graham.dennis@anu.edu.au; Dewar, R. L.; Hole, M. J. [Research School of Physics and Engineering, Australian National University, ACT 0200 (Australia); Hudson, S. R. [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, PO Box 451, Princeton, New Jersey 08543 (United States)

2014-04-15

We present an extension of the multi-region relaxed magnetohydrodynamics (MRxMHD) equilibrium model that includes plasma flow. This new model is a generalization of Woltjer's model of relaxed magnetohydrodynamics equilibria with flow. We prove that as the number of plasma regions becomes infinite, our extension of MRxMHD reduces to ideal MHD with flow. We also prove that some solutions to MRxMHD with flow are not time-independent in the laboratory frame, and instead have 3D structure which rotates in the toroidal direction with fixed angular velocity. This capability gives MRxMHD potential application to describing rotating 3D MHD structures such as 'snakes' and long-lived modes.

Compromised Global and Regional Cerebral Blood Flow in Congestive Heart Failure

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, J. S.; Kim, J. J.; Im, K. C.; Moon, D. H. [College of Medicine, Univ. of Ulsan, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2003-07-01

It has been known that cerebral perfusion is maintained in patients with congestive heart failure (CHF) by a complex series of compensatory mechanisms. However cognitive impairment is a common problem experienced by patients with CHF and may result from deranged cerebral perfusion. We prospectively investigated the global and regional CBF of patients with CHF and compared the results with that of normal controls. Thirty two patients (M/F: 22/10, 4211 yr) with CHF (LVEF=218.1%) and 10 healthy controls (M/F: 6/4, 398 yr) were prospectively studied. No patients had cerebrovascular disease or other disease affecting cognitive function. All patients and normal controls underwent radionuclide angiography including cerebral hemispheres and aortic arch, and brain perfusion SPECT using Tc-99m ECD. Global CBF was measured non-invasively by the application of Patlak plot graphical analysis. Quantitative rCBF images were obtained from SPECT image using global CBF values, regional/global count ratios, and Lassen's linearization correction algorithm. Difference of regional CBF between CHF and normal control were assessed using a SPM99 without global count normalization (uncorrected p<0.0001, extent threshold>100 voxels). Global CBF (41.54.7 ml/min/100g) of the patients with CHF were significantly lower than those (49.15.7 ml/min/100g) of controls (p<0.001). Regional CBF was significantly decreased in frontal, temporal and parietal neocortex of both cerebral hemispheres compared to normal controls. Regional rCBF of basal ganglia, thalamus, and brain stem were preserved, even though global CBF was variably compromised. Our study show that global CBF is significantly decreased in CHF and regional CBF of frontal, parietal and temporal neocortex is compromised preferentially. Further studies would be needed to investigate the relationship of rCBF change and cognitive impairment in patients with CHF.

76 FR 55060 - Aquatic Ecosystems, Water Quality, and Global Change: Challenges of Conducting Multi-Stressor...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-09-06

... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY [FRL-9459-7] Aquatic Ecosystems, Water Quality, and Global Change... entitled, Aquatic Ecosystems, Water Quality, and Global Change: Challenges of Conducting Multi- stressor... vulnerability of water quality and aquatic ecosystems across the United States to the potential impacts of...

A scenario analysis of investment options for the Cuban power sector using the MARKAL model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wright, Evelyn L.; Belt, Juan A.B.; Chambers, Adam; Delaquil, Pat; Goldstein, Gary

2010-01-01

The Cuban power sector faces a need for extensive investment in new generating capacity, under a large number of uncertainties regarding future conditions, including: rate of demand growth, fluctuations in fuel prices, access to imported fuel, and access to investment capital for construction of new power plants and development of fuel import infrastructure. To identify cost effective investment strategies under these uncertainties, a supply and power sector MARKAL model was assembled, following an extensive review of available data on the Cuban power system and resource potentials. Two scenarios were assessed, a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario assuming continued moderate electricity load growth and domestic fuel production growth, and a high growth (HI) scenario assuming rapid electricity demand growth, rapid increase in domestic fuel production, and a transition to market pricing of electricity. Within these two scenarios sets, sensitivity analyses were conducted on a number of variables. The implications of least-cost investment strategies for new capacity builds, investment spending requirements, electricity prices, fuel expenditures, and carbon dioxide emissions for each scenario were assessed. Natural gas was found to be the cost effective fuel for new generation across both scenarios and most sensitivity cases, suggesting that access to natural gas, through increased domestic production and LNG import, is a clear priority for further analysis in the Cuban context.

A scenario analysis of investment options for the Cuban power sector using the MARKAL model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wright, Evelyn L.; Chambers, Adam; Delaquil, Pat; Goldstein, Gary [International Resources Group, 1211 Connecticut Avenue, NW, Suite 700, Washington, DC 20036 (United States); Belt, Juan A.B. [US Agency for International Development, 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20523-3800 (United States)

2010-07-15

The Cuban power sector faces a need for extensive investment in new generating capacity, under a large number of uncertainties regarding future conditions, including: rate of demand growth, fluctuations in fuel prices, access to imported fuel, and access to investment capital for construction of new power plants and development of fuel import infrastructure. To identify cost effective investment strategies under these uncertainties, a supply and power sector MARKAL model was assembled, following an extensive review of available data on the Cuban power system and resource potentials. Two scenarios were assessed, a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario assuming continued moderate electricity load growth and domestic fuel production growth, and a high growth (HI) scenario assuming rapid electricity demand growth, rapid increase in domestic fuel production, and a transition to market pricing of electricity. Within these two scenarios sets, sensitivity analyses were conducted on a number of variables. The implications of least-cost investment strategies for new capacity builds, investment spending requirements, electricity prices, fuel expenditures, and carbon dioxide emissions for each scenario were assessed. Natural gas was found to be the cost effective fuel for new generation across both scenarios and most sensitivity cases, suggesting that access to natural gas, through increased domestic production and LNG import, is a clear priority for further analysis in the Cuban context. (author)

An integrated stochastic multi-regional long-term energy planning model incorporating autonomous power systems and demand response

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koltsaklis, Nikolaos E.; Liu, Pei; Georgiadis, Michael C.

2015-01-01

The power sector faces a rapid transformation worldwide from a dominant fossil-fueled towards a low carbon electricity generation mix. Renewable energy technologies (RES) are steadily becoming a greater part of the global energy mix, in particular in regions that have put in place policies and measures to promote their utilization. This paper presents an optimization-based approach to address the generation expansion planning (GEP) problem of a large-scale, central power system in a highly uncertain and volatile electricity industry environment. A multi-regional, multi-period linear mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model is presented, combining optimization techniques with a Monte Carlo (MCA) method and demand response concepts. The optimization goal concerns the minimization of the total discounted cost by determining optimal power capacity additions per time interval and region, and the power generation mix per technology and time period. The model is evaluated on the Greek power system (GPS), taking also into consideration the scheduled interconnection of the mainland power system with those of selected autonomous islands (Cyclades and Crete), and aims at providing full insight into the composition of the long-term energy roadmap at a national level. - Highlights: • A spatial, multi-period, long-term generation expansion planning model is presented. • A Monte-Carlo method along with a demand response mechanism are incorporated. • Autonomous power systems interconnection is considered. • Electricity and CO 2 emission trade are taken into account. • Lignite, natural gas and wind power comprise the dominant power technologies

Contrasting regional versus global radiative forcing by megacity pollution emissions

Science.gov (United States)

Dang, H.; Unger, N.

2015-10-01

We assess the regional and global integrated radiative forcing on 20- and 100-year time horizons caused by a one-year pulse of present day pollution emissions from 10 megacity areas: Los Angeles, Mexico City, New York City, Sao Paulo, Lagos, Cairo, New Delhi, Beijing, Shanghai and Manila. The assessment includes well-mixed greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4); and short-lived climate forcers: tropospheric ozone (O3) and fine mode aerosol particles (sulfate, nitrate, black carbon, primary and secondary organic aerosol). All megacities contribute net global warming on both time horizons. Most of the 10 megacity areas exert a net negative effect on their own regional radiation budget that is 10-100 times larger in magnitude than their global radiative effects. Of the cities examined, Beijing, New Delhi, Shanghai and New York contribute most to global warming with values ranging from +0.03 to 0.05 Wm-2yr on short timescales and +0.07-0.10 Wm-2yr on long timescales. Regional net 20-year radiative effects are largest for Mexico City (-0.84 Wm-2yr) and Beijing (-0.78 Wm-2yr). Megacity reduction of non-CH4 O3 precursors to improve air quality offers zero co-benefits to global climate. Megacity reduction of aerosols to improve air quality offers co-benefits to the regional radiative budget but minimal or no co-benefits to global climate with the exception of black carbon reductions in a few cities, especially Beijing and New Delhi. Results suggest that air pollution and global climate change mitigation can be treated as separate environmental issues in policy at the megacity level with the exception of CH4 action. Individual megacity reduction of CO2 and CH4 emissions can mitigate global warming and therefore offers climate safety improvements to the entire planet.

On global and regional spectral evaluation of global geopotential models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ustun, A; Abbak, R A

2010-01-01

Spectral evaluation of global geopotential models (GGMs) is necessary to recognize the behaviour of gravity signal and its error recorded in spherical harmonic coefficients and associated standard deviations. Results put forward in this wise explain the whole contribution of gravity data in different kinds that represent various sections of the gravity spectrum. This method is more informative than accuracy assessment methods, which use external data such as GPS-levelling. Comparative spectral evaluation for more than one model can be performed both in global and local sense using many spectral tools. The number of GGMs has grown with the increasing number of data collected by the dedicated satellite gravity missions, CHAMP, GRACE and GOCE. This fact makes it necessary to measure the differences between models and to monitor the improvements in the gravity field recovery. In this paper, some of the satellite-only and combined models are examined in different scales, globally and regionally, in order to observe the advances in the modelling of GGMs and their strengths at various expansion degrees for geodetic and geophysical applications. The validation of the published errors of model coefficients is a part of this evaluation. All spectral tools explicitly reveal the superiority of the GRACE-based models when compared against the models that comprise the conventional satellite tracking data. The disagreement between models is large in local/regional areas if data sets are different, as seen from the example of the Turkish territory

Global dynamics of a novel multi-group model for computer worms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gong Yong-Wang; Song Yu-Rong; Jiang Guo-Ping

2013-01-01

In this paper, we study worm dynamics in computer networks composed of many autonomous systems. A novel multi-group SIQR (susceptible-infected-quarantined-removed) model is proposed for computer worms by explicitly considering anti-virus measures and the network infrastructure. Then, the basic reproduction number of worm R 0 is derived and the global dynamics of the model are established. It is shown that if R 0 is less than or equal to 1, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and the worm dies out eventually, whereas, if R 0 is greater than 1, one unique endemic equilibrium exists and it is globally asymptotically stable, thus the worm persists in the network. Finally, numerical simulations are given to illustrate the theoretical results. (general)

FAST LABEL: Easy and efficient solution of joint multi-label and estimation problems

KAUST Repository

Sundaramoorthi, Ganesh

2014-06-01

We derive an easy-to-implement and efficient algorithm for solving multi-label image partitioning problems in the form of the problem addressed by Region Competition. These problems jointly determine a parameter for each of the regions in the partition. Given an estimate of the parameters, a fast approximate solution to the multi-label sub-problem is derived by a global update that uses smoothing and thresholding. The method is empirically validated to be robust to fine details of the image that plague local solutions. Further, in comparison to global methods for the multi-label problem, the method is more efficient and it is easy for a non-specialist to implement. We give sample Matlab code for the multi-label Chan-Vese problem in this paper! Experimental comparison to the state-of-the-art in multi-label solutions to Region Competition shows that our method achieves equal or better accuracy, with the main advantage being speed and ease of implementation.

Analysis of the Effect of Interior Nudging on Temperature and Precipitation Distributions of Multi-year Regional Climate Simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Nolte, C. G.; Otte, T. L.; Bowden, J. H.; Otte, M. J.

2010-12-01

There is disagreement in the regional climate modeling community as to the appropriateness of the use of internal nudging. Some investigators argue that the regional model should be minimally constrained and allowed to respond to regional-scale forcing, while others have noted that in the absence of interior nudging, significant large-scale discrepancies develop between the regional model solution and the driving coarse-scale fields. These discrepancies lead to reduced confidence in the ability of regional climate models to dynamically downscale global climate model simulations under climate change scenarios, and detract from the usability of the regional simulations for impact assessments. The advantages and limitations of interior nudging schemes for regional climate modeling are investigated in this study. Multi-year simulations using the WRF model driven by reanalysis data over the continental United States at 36km resolution are conducted using spectral nudging, grid point nudging, and for a base case without interior nudging. The means, distributions, and inter-annual variability of temperature and precipitation will be evaluated in comparison to regional analyses.

Influence of globalization on the state management by regional development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. H. Kovalchuk

2015-03-01

Full Text Available It is detected that substantial influence on the state management by regional development have done the processes of globalization, particularly the transference from programs to strategies of regions development was held. Wherein there are a lot of social and economic benefits connected with usage of regional development strategies in the globalized world compared with traditional programs of development, the main of which are the following: strategies give more authority to local communities and contribute to dialogue establishing; strategies help to make the work of regional authorities more clear and responsible, and also they contribute the development of citizens community on the local level; strategies contribute the stable growing and creating of employment in local enterprises, which are able to adapt to conditions of socially economic situation in the World that changes permanently because of its orientation to the socially economic activity of particular territory depended on competitive benefits and features of its territory; strategies thanks to attraction to their realization of local entities interested in region development, and also because of economic activity improvement on particular territory contribute the quality increase of working places. Keywords: governance, regional development strategy, the processes of globalization.

Age and gender estimation using Region-SIFT and multi-layered SVM

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Hyunduk; Lee, Sang-Heon; Sohn, Myoung-Kyu; Hwang, Byunghun

2018-04-01

In this paper, we propose an age and gender estimation framework using the region-SIFT feature and multi-layered SVM classifier. The suggested framework entails three processes. The first step is landmark based face alignment. The second step is the feature extraction step. In this step, we introduce the region-SIFT feature extraction method based on facial landmarks. First, we define sub-regions of the face. We then extract SIFT features from each sub-region. In order to reduce the dimensions of features we employ a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and a Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA). Finally, we classify age and gender using a multi-layered Support Vector Machines (SVM) for efficient classification. Rather than performing gender estimation and age estimation independently, the use of the multi-layered SVM can improve the classification rate by constructing a classifier that estimate the age according to gender. Moreover, we collect a dataset of face images, called by DGIST_C, from the internet. A performance evaluation of proposed method was performed with the FERET database, CACD database, and DGIST_C database. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach classifies age and performs gender estimation very efficiently and accurately.

The Influence of Globalization, Integration and Regionalization Processes on the European States and Regions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T V Bazarenko

2013-12-01

Full Text Available The article deals with the impact of globalization, regionalization and integration in European countries and regions. It discusses the distinctive features and factors of influence of each of these processes on the European countries and sub national entities.

Detecting the global and regional effects of sulphate aerosol geoengineering

Science.gov (United States)

Lo, Eunice; Charlton-Perez, Andrew; Highwood, Ellie

2017-04-01

Climate warming is unequivocal. In addition to carbon dioxide emission mitigation, some geoengineering ideas have been proposed to reduce future surface temperature rise. One of these proposals involves injecting sulphate aerosols into the stratosphere to increase the planet's albedo. Monitoring the effectiveness of sulphate aerosol injection (SAI) would require us to be able to distinguish and detect its cooling effect from the climate system's internal variability and other externally forced temperature changes. This research uses optimal fingerprinting techniques together with simulations from the GeoMIP data base to estimate the number of years of observations that would be needed to detect SAI's cooling signal in near-surface air temperature, should 5 Tg of sulphur dioxide be injected into the stratosphere per year on top of RCP4.5 from 2020-2070. The first part of the research compares the application of two detection methods that have different null hypotheses to SAI detection in global mean near-surface temperature. The first method assumes climate noise to be dominated by unforced climate variability and attempts to detect the SAI cooling signal and greenhouse gas driven warming signal in the "observations" simultaneously against this noise. The second method considers greenhouse gas driven warming to be a non-stationary background climate and attempts to detect the net cooling effect of SAI against this background. Results from this part of the research show that the conventional multi-variate detection method that has been extensively used to attribute climate warming to anthropogenic sources could also be applied for geoengineering detection. The second part of the research investigates detection of geoengineering effects on the regional scale. The globe is divided into various sub-continental scale regions and the cooling effect of SAI is looked for in the temperature time series in each of these regions using total least squares multi

Towards multi-resolution global climate modeling with ECHAM6-FESOM. Part II: climate variability

Science.gov (United States)

Rackow, T.; Goessling, H. F.; Jung, T.; Sidorenko, D.; Semmler, T.; Barbi, D.; Handorf, D.

2018-04-01

This study forms part II of two papers describing ECHAM6-FESOM, a newly established global climate model with a unique multi-resolution sea ice-ocean component. While part I deals with the model description and the mean climate state, here we examine the internal climate variability of the model under constant present-day (1990) conditions. We (1) assess the internal variations in the model in terms of objective variability performance indices, (2) analyze variations in global mean surface temperature and put them in context to variations in the observed record, with particular emphasis on the recent warming slowdown, (3) analyze and validate the most common atmospheric and oceanic variability patterns, (4) diagnose the potential predictability of various climate indices, and (5) put the multi-resolution approach to the test by comparing two setups that differ only in oceanic resolution in the equatorial belt, where one ocean mesh keeps the coarse 1° resolution applied in the adjacent open-ocean regions and the other mesh is gradually refined to 0.25°. Objective variability performance indices show that, in the considered setups, ECHAM6-FESOM performs overall favourably compared to five well-established climate models. Internal variations of the global mean surface temperature in the model are consistent with observed fluctuations and suggest that the recent warming slowdown can be explained as a once-in-one-hundred-years event caused by internal climate variability; periods of strong cooling in the model (`hiatus' analogs) are mainly associated with ENSO-related variability and to a lesser degree also to PDO shifts, with the AMO playing a minor role. Common atmospheric and oceanic variability patterns are simulated largely consistent with their real counterparts. Typical deficits also found in other models at similar resolutions remain, in particular too weak non-seasonal variability of SSTs over large parts of the ocean and episodic periods of almost absent

Dynamic clustering scheme based on the coordination of management and control in multi-layer and multi-region intelligent optical network

Science.gov (United States)

Niu, Xiaoliang; Yuan, Fen; Huang, Shanguo; Guo, Bingli; Gu, Wanyi

2011-12-01

A Dynamic clustering scheme based on coordination of management and control is proposed to reduce network congestion rate and improve the blocking performance of hierarchical routing in Multi-layer and Multi-region intelligent optical network. Its implement relies on mobile agent (MA) technology, which has the advantages of efficiency, flexibility, functional and scalability. The paper's major contribution is to adjust dynamically domain when the performance of working network isn't in ideal status. And the incorporation of centralized NMS and distributed MA control technology migrate computing process to control plane node which releases the burden of NMS and improves process efficiently. Experiments are conducted on Multi-layer and multi-region Simulation Platform for Optical Network (MSPON) to assess the performance of the scheme.

Technology Learning Ratios in Global Energy Models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Varela, M.

2001-01-01

The process of introduction of a new technology supposes that while its production and utilisation increases, also its operation improves and its investment costs and production decreases. The accumulation of experience and learning of a new technology increase in parallel with the increase of its market share. This process is represented by the technological learning curves and the energy sector is not detached from this process of substitution of old technologies by new ones. The present paper carries out a brief revision of the main energy models that include the technology dynamics (learning). The energy scenarios, developed by global energy models, assume that the characteristics of the technologies are variables with time. But this trend is incorporated in a exogenous way in these energy models, that is to say, it is only a time function. This practice is applied to the cost indicators of the technology such as the specific investment costs or to the efficiency of the energy technologies. In the last years, the new concept of endogenous technological learning has been integrated within these global energy models. This paper examines the concept of technological learning in global energy models. It also analyses the technological dynamics of the energy system including the endogenous modelling of the process of technological progress. Finally, it makes a comparison of several of the most used global energy models (MARKAL, MESSAGE and ERIS) and, more concretely, about the use these models make of the concept of technological learning. (Author) 17 refs

A statistical-dynamical downscaling procedure for global climate simulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frey-Buness, A.; Heimann, D.; Sausen, R.; Schumann, U.

1994-01-01

A statistical-dynamical downscaling procedure for global climate simulations is described. The procedure is based on the assumption that any regional climate is associated with a specific frequency distribution of classified large-scale weather situations. The frequency distributions are derived from multi-year episodes of low resolution global climate simulations. Highly resolved regional distributions of wind and temperature are calculated with a regional model for each class of large-scale weather situation. They are statistically evaluated by weighting them with the according climate-specific frequency. The procedure is exemplarily applied to the Alpine region for a global climate simulation of the present climate. (orig.)

Regionalism and Economic Processes with Global Impact

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marina TABAC

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Regionalism has become one of the most discussed topics at the moment, in recent years and become one of the central challenges of the future in the modern system of international relations. Finally, in the XIX-XX centuries, scientists have expressed it a worldwide phenomenon through a process of radical change "external environment" and significant internal changes. It can be expressed in the world in one way or another, even if it has not been shown modest form until recently. Currently, regionalism and regional integration are considered as key indicators of international developments in the research of foreign policy and international relations. Theory followed the end of the era of "Cold War" and entered the post-bipolar world, multi-faceted development stage. The attention of researchers has grown to regionalization and regional integration by increasing the role and activities of regional organizations such as the EU, ASEAN, APEC and NAFTA, which coordinates the process of decision-making at supranational level, as well as issues of international regulation.

Global Ionospheric Modelling using Multi-GNSS: BeiDou, Galileo, GLONASS and GPS.

Science.gov (United States)

Ren, Xiaodong; Zhang, Xiaohong; Xie, Weiliang; Zhang, Keke; Yuan, Yongqiang; Li, Xingxing

2016-09-15

The emergence of China's Beidou, Europe's Galileo and Russia's GLONASS satellites has multiplied the number of ionospheric piercing points (IPP) offered by GPS alone. This provides great opportunities for deriving precise global ionospheric maps (GIMs) with high resolution to improve positioning accuracy and ionospheric monitoring capabilities. In this paper, the GIM is developed based on multi-GNSS (GPS, GLONASS, BeiDou and Galileo) observations in the current multi-constellation condition. The performance and contribution of multi-GNSS for ionospheric modelling are carefully analysed and evaluated. Multi-GNSS observations of over 300 stations from the Multi-GNSS Experiment (MGEX) and International GNSS Service (IGS) networks for two months are processed. The results show that the multi-GNSS GIM products are better than those of GIM products based on GPS-only. Differential code biases (DCB) are by-products of the multi-GNSS ionosphere modelling, the corresponding standard deviations (STDs) are 0.06 ns, 0.10 ns, 0.18 ns and 0.15 ns for GPS, GLONASS, BeiDou and Galileo, respectively in satellite, and the STDs for the receiver are approximately 0.2~0.4 ns. The single-frequency precise point positioning (SF-PPP) results indicate that the ionospheric modelling accuracy of the proposed method based on multi-GNSS observations is better than that of the current dual-system GIM in specific areas.

Global and Regional Real-time Systems for Flood and Drought Monitoring and Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Hong, Y.; Gourley, J. J.; Xue, X.; Flamig, Z.

2015-12-01

A Hydrometeorological Extreme Mapping and Prediction System (HyXtreme-MaP), initially built upon the Coupled Routing and Excess STorage (CREST) distributed hydrological model, is driven by real-time quasi-global TRMM/GPM satellites and by the US Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) radar network with dual-polarimetric upgrade to simulate streamflow, actual ET, soil moisture and other hydrologic variables at 1/8th degree resolution quasi-globally (http://eos.ou.edu) and at 250-meter 2.5-mintue resolution over the Continental United States (CONUS: http://flash.ou.edu).­ Multifaceted and collaborative by-design, this end-to-end research framework aims to not only integrate data, models, and applications but also brings people together (i.e., NOAA, NASA, University researchers, and end-users). This presentation will review the progresses, challenges and opportunities of such HyXTREME-MaP System used to monitor global floods and droughts, and also to predict flash floods over the CONUS.

Multi-Electrode Impedance Method for Detection of Regional Ventilation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Furuya, Norio; Sakamoto, Katsuyuki

2013-01-01

By means of computer simulation and experiment, we investigated the feasibility of simultaneously measuring the transfer impedance changes in the right apex, left apex, right base and left base of the lungs using the multi-electrode impedance method. To obtain the transfer impedance in each region, while suppressing the effects of other regions, changing the amplitude and polarity of the applied current must localize the high sensitivity areas in the interest region. Twelve current and eight voltage electrodes were equidistantly arranged on the anterior and posterior chest walls. The amplitudes and polarities of the currents that were simultaneously applied to the current electrodes, and which provided the appropriate sensitivity distribution, were theoretically obtained. The effects of the localized sensitivity distribution were verified by comparing the simulation results of the investigated method with the results of the conventional four-electrode method. From the results of the computer simulation, we developed a multi-electrode impedance pneumography and applied it to healthy adult volunteers who were both in sitting position and in left decubitus. We found that the measurement results were physiologically reasonable.

Social Compacts in Regional and Global Perspective

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schmidt, Johannes Dragsbæk

2009-01-01

the impact of global restructuring on labour and social conditions. Examples of the distributional consequences and resulting inequality, poverty, and unemployment are provided. This process has had an important impact on the emergence of reactive regional social compacts based on various forms of negotiated...

The chaotic global best artificial bee colony algorithm for the multi-area economic/emission dispatch

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Secui, Dinu Calin

2015-01-01

This paper suggests a chaotic optimizing method, based on the GBABC (global best artificial bee colony algorithm), where the random sequences used in updating the solutions of this algorithm are replaced with chaotic sequences generated by chaotic maps. The new algorithm, called chaotic CGBABC (global best artificial bee colony algorithm), is used to solving the multi-area economic/emission dispatch problem taking into consideration the valve-point effects, the transmission line losses, multi-fuel sources, prohibited operating zones, tie line capacity and power transfer cost between different areas of the system. The behaviour of the CGBABC algorithm is studied considering ten chaotic maps both one-dimensional and bi-dimensional, with various probability density functions. The CGBABC algorithm's performance including a variety of chaotic maps is tested on five systems (6-unit, 10-unit, 16-unit, 40-unit and 120-unit) with different characteristics, constraints and sizes. The results comparison highlights a hierarchy in the chaotic maps included in the CGBABC algorithm and shows that it performs better than the classical ABC algorithm, the GBABC algorithm and other optimization techniques. - Highlights: • A chaotic global best ABC algorithm (CGBABC) is presented. • CGBABC is applied for solving the multi-area economic/emission dispatch problem. • Valve-point effects, multi-fuel sources, POZ, transmission losses were considered. • The algorithm is tested on five systems having 6, 10, 16, 40 and 120 thermal units. • CGBABC algorithm outperforms several optimization techniques.

Multi-region relaxed magnetohydrodynamics with anisotropy and flow

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dennis, G. R., E-mail: graham.dennis@anu.edu.au; Dewar, R. L.; Hole, M. J. [Research School of Physics and Engineering, Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 0200 (Australia); Hudson, S. R. [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, PO Box 451, Princeton, New Jersey 08543 (United States)

2014-07-15

We present an extension of the multi-region relaxed magnetohydrodynamics (MRxMHD) equilibrium model that includes pressure anisotropy and general plasma flows. This anisotropic extension to our previous isotropic model is motivated by Sun and Finn's model of relaxed anisotropic magnetohydrodynamic equilibria. We prove that as the number of plasma regions becomes infinite, our anisotropic extension of MRxMHD reduces to anisotropic ideal MHD with flow. The continuously nested flux surface limit of our MRxMHD model is the first variational principle for anisotropic plasma equilibria with general flow fields.

Regional to global changes in drought and implications for future changes under global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Kam, J.

2012-12-01

Drought can have large impacts on multiple sectors, including agriculture, water resources, ecosystems, transport, industry and tourism. In extreme cases, regional drought can lead to food insecurity and famine, and in intensive agricultural regions, extend to global economic impacts in a connected world. Recent droughts globally have been severe and costly but whether they are becoming more frequent and severe, and the attribution of this, is a key question. Observational evidence at large scales, such as satellite remote sensing are often subject to short-term records and inhomogeneities, and ground based data are sparse in many regions. Reliance on model output is also subject to error and simplifications in the model physics that can, for example, amplify the impact of global warming on drought. This presentation will show the observational and model evidence for changes in drought, with a focus on the interplay between precipitation and atmospheric evaporative demand and its impact on the terrestrial water cycle and drought. We discuss the fidelity of climate models to reproduce our best estimates of drought variability and its drivers historically, and the implications of this on uncertainties in future projections of drought from CMIP5 models, and how this has changed since CMIP3.

Extending the relationship between global warming and cumulative carbon emissions to multi-millennial timescales

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frölicher, Thomas L; Paynter, David J

2015-01-01

The transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE) is a highly policy-relevant quantity in climate science. The TCRE suggests that peak warming is linearly proportional to cumulative carbon emissions and nearly independent of the emissions scenario. Here, we use simulations of the Earth System Model (ESM) from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) to show that global mean surface temperature may increase by 0.5 °C after carbon emissions are stopped at 2 °C global warming, implying an increase in the coefficient relating global warming to cumulative carbon emissions on multi-centennial timescales. The simulations also suggest a 20% lower quota on cumulative carbon emissions allowed to achieve a policy-driven limit on global warming. ESM estimates from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5–ESMs) qualitatively agree on this result, whereas Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) simulations, used in the IPCC 5th assessment report to assess the robustness of TCRE on multi-centennial timescales, suggest a post-emissions decrease in temperature. The reason for this discrepancy lies in the smaller simulated realized warming fraction in CMIP5–ESMs, including GFDL ESM2M, than in EMICs when carbon emissions increase. The temperature response to cumulative carbon emissions can be characterized by three different phases and the linear TCRE framework is only valid during the first phase when carbon emissions increase. For longer timescales, when emissions tape off, two new metrics are introduced that better characterize the time-dependent temperature response to cumulative carbon emissions: the equilibrium climate response to cumulative carbon emissions and the multi-millennial climate response to cumulative carbon emissions. (letter)

India and the BRICS: Global Bandwagoning and Regional Balancing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matthew D Stephen

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Indian policy makers have welcomed India’s framing as a ‘rising power’ and celebrated the BRICS initiative as a common front in reforming aspects of global governance. Yet China’s rise in Asia has unsettled the balances of power which have underpinned the region, as a consequence of which India has hesitantly pursued a strategic rapprochement with the United States. Assessing New Delhi’s multilateral and geo-strategic diplomacy, this article argues that India bandwagons with the BRICS on a global level, but seeks to balance China at the regional level. On the global multilateral level, India has common cause with other rising powers in reforming the policies and structures of most international organizations. The exceptions are the United Nations Security Council and the Non-proliferation Treaty, where China and Russia can be qualified as established powers. On the regional level, however, India has maintained ties to Russia and cultivated a strong relationship with the United States in an effort to balance and increase leverage relative to a rising China. This underlines that major power rivalries are strongly mediated by issue area and institutional context.

FROM GLOBAL TO INTRA-REGIONAL TOURISM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anders Steene

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Regardless of how society has evolved, travel and tourism have had a positive development since the end of Second World War. But now it seems that the perception of risk and danger is accentuated and the tourists choose destinations based on more safety and security for tourists. Risks often seem to be based on different global activities and actions from different groups, which the individual can not affect or influence over. These perceived risks thus affect the development of tourism and travel in a global perspective. This article would discuss the new threats to the global tourism due to the terrorist attacks that target different countries and in many cases the popular tourist destinations. With the result that travel has become more intra-regional again. The article makes a review of the slightly incomplete statistics available in the area and discuss possible strategies for overcoming the existing terrorist attacks. The conclusions of the article points to a more concrete cooperation between international and national organizations, governments, as well as NGOs, tour operators and civil society in general.

LenoxKaplan_Role of natural gas in meeting electric sector emissions reduction strategy_dataset

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This dataset is for an analysis that used the MARKAL linear optimization model to compare the carbon emissions profiles and system-wide global warming potential of...

Monitoring the Dead Sea Region by Multi-Parameter Stations

Science.gov (United States)

Mohsen, A.; Weber, M. H.; Kottmeier, C.; Asch, G.

2015-12-01

The Dead Sea Region is an exceptional ecosystem whose seismic activity has influenced all facets of the development, from ground water availability to human evolution. Israelis, Palestinians and Jordanians living in the Dead Sea region are exposed to severe earthquake hazard. Repeatedly large earthquakes (e.g. 1927, magnitude 6.0; (Ambraseys, 2009)) shook the whole Dead Sea region proving that earthquake hazard knows no borders and damaging seismic events can strike anytime. Combined with the high vulnerability of cities in the region and with the enormous concentration of historical values this natural hazard results in an extreme earthquake risk. Thus, an integration of earthquake parameters at all scales (size and time) and their combination with data of infrastructure are needed with the specific aim of providing a state-of-the-art seismic hazard assessment for the Dead Sea region as well as a first quantitative estimate of vulnerability and risk. A strong motivation for our research is the lack of reliable multi-parameter ground-based geophysical information on earthquakes in the Dead Sea region. The proposed set up of a number of observatories with on-line data access will enable to derive the present-day seismicity and deformation pattern in the Dead Sea region. The first multi-parameter stations were installed in Jordan, Israel and Palestine for long-time monitoring. All partners will jointly use these locations. All stations will have an open data policy, with the Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum (GFZ, Potsdam, Germany) providing the hard and software for real-time data transmission via satellite to Germany, where all partners can access the data via standard data protocols.

Networks of global bird invasion altered by regional trade ban.

Science.gov (United States)

Reino, Luís; Figueira, Rui; Beja, Pedro; Araújo, Miguel B; Capinha, César; Strubbe, Diederik

2017-11-01

Wildlife trade is a major pathway for introduction of invasive species worldwide. However, how exactly wildlife trade influences invasion risk, beyond the transportation of individuals to novel areas, remains unknown. We analyze the global trade network of wild-caught birds from 1995 to 2011 as reported by CITES (Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora). We found that before the European Union ban on imports of wild-caught birds, declared in 2005, invasion risk was closely associated with numbers of imported birds, diversity of import sources, and degree of network centrality of importer countries. After the ban, fluxes of global bird trade declined sharply. However, new trade routes emerged, primarily toward the Nearctic, Afrotropical, and Indo-Malay regions. Although regional bans can curtail invasion risk globally, to be fully effective and prevent rerouting of trade flows, bans should be global.

Multi-regional input–output model and ecological network analysis for regional embodied energy accounting in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Yan; Zheng, Hongmei; Yang, Zhifeng; Su, Meirong; Liu, Gengyuan; Li, Yanxian

2015-01-01

Chinese regions frequently exchange materials, but regional differences in economic development create unbalanced flows of these resources. In this study, we examined energy by assessing embodied energy consumption to describe the energy-flow structure in China's seven regions. Based on multi-regional monetary input–output tables and energy statistical yearbooks for Chinese provinces in 2002 and 2007, we accounted for both direct and indirect energy consumption, respectively, and the integral input and output of the provinces. Most integral inputs of energy flowed from north to south or from east to west, whereas integral output flows were mainly from northeast to southwest. This differed from the direct flows, which were predominantly from north to south and west to east. This demonstrates the importance of calculating both direct and indirect energy flows. Analysis of the distance and direction traveled by the energy consumption centers of gravity showed that the centers for embodied energy consumption and inputs moved southeast because of the movements of the centers of the Eastern region. However, the center for outputs moved northeast because the movement of the Central region. These analyses provide a basis for identifying how regional economic development policies influence the embodied energy consumption and its flows among regions. - Highlights: • We integrated multi-regional input–output analysis with ecological network analysis. • We accounted for both direct and indirect energy consumption. • The centers of gravity for embodied energy flows moved southeast from 2002 to 2007. • The results support planning of energy consumption and energy flows among regions.

Multi-modal trip planning system : Northeastern Illinois Regional Transportation Authority.

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-01

This report evaluates the Multi-Modal Trip Planner System (MMTPS) implemented by the Northeastern Illinois Regional Transportation Authority (RTA) against the specific functional objectives enumerated by the Federal Transit Administration (FTA) in it...

A Global Sensitivity Analysis Methodology for Multi-physics Applications

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tong, C H; Graziani, F R

2007-02-02

Experiments are conducted to draw inferences about an entire ensemble based on a selected number of observations. This applies to both physical experiments as well as computer experiments, the latter of which are performed by running the simulation models at different input configurations and analyzing the output responses. Computer experiments are instrumental in enabling model analyses such as uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis. This report focuses on a global sensitivity analysis methodology that relies on a divide-and-conquer strategy and uses intelligent computer experiments. The objective is to assess qualitatively and/or quantitatively how the variabilities of simulation output responses can be accounted for by input variabilities. We address global sensitivity analysis in three aspects: methodology, sampling/analysis strategies, and an implementation framework. The methodology consists of three major steps: (1) construct credible input ranges; (2) perform a parameter screening study; and (3) perform a quantitative sensitivity analysis on a reduced set of parameters. Once identified, research effort should be directed to the most sensitive parameters to reduce their uncertainty bounds. This process is repeated with tightened uncertainty bounds for the sensitive parameters until the output uncertainties become acceptable. To accommodate the needs of multi-physics application, this methodology should be recursively applied to individual physics modules. The methodology is also distinguished by an efficient technique for computing parameter interactions. Details for each step will be given using simple examples. Numerical results on large scale multi-physics applications will be available in another report. Computational techniques targeted for this methodology have been implemented in a software package called PSUADE.

Multi-wavelength Observations of Solar Acoustic Waves Near Active Regions

Science.gov (United States)

Monsue, Teresa; Pesnell, Dean; Hill, Frank

2018-01-01

Active region areas on the Sun are abundant with a variety of waves that are both acoustically helioseismic and magnetohydrodynamic in nature. The occurrence of a solar flare can disrupt these waves, through MHD mode-mixing or scattering by the excitation of these waves. We take a multi-wavelength observational approach to understand the source of theses waves by studying active regions where flaring activity occurs. Our approach is to search for signals within a time series of images using a Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) algorithm, by producing multi-frequency power map movies. We study active regions both spatially and temporally and correlate this method over multiple wavelengths using data from NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory. By surveying the active regions on multiple wavelengths we are able to observe the behavior of these waves within the Solar atmosphere, from the photosphere up through the corona. We are able to detect enhancements of power around active regions, which could be acoustic power halos and of an MHD-wave propagating outward by the flaring event. We are in the initial stages of this study understanding the behaviors of these waves and could one day contribute to understanding the mechanism responsible for their formation; that has not yet been explained.

Generating Multi-Destination Maps.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Junsong; Fan, Jiepeng; Luo, Zhenshan

2017-08-01

Multi-destination maps are a kind of navigation maps aimed to guide visitors to multiple destinations within a region, which can be of great help to urban visitors. However, they have not been developed in the current online map service. To address this issue, we introduce a novel layout model designed especially for generating multi-destination maps, which considers the global and local layout of a multi-destination map. We model the layout problem as a graph drawing that satisfies a set of hard and soft constraints. In the global layout phase, we balance the scale factor between ROIs. In the local layout phase, we make all edges have good visibility and optimize the map layout to preserve the relative length and angle of roads. We also propose a perturbation-based optimization method to find an optimal layout in the complex solution space. The multi-destination maps generated by our system are potential feasible on the modern mobile devices and our result can show an overview and a detail view of the whole map at the same time. In addition, we perform a user study to evaluate the effectiveness of our method, and the results prove that the multi-destination maps achieve our goals well.

Regional or global WEEE recycling. Where to go?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Jinhui; Lopez N, Brenda N.; Liu, Lili; Zhao, Nana; Yu, Keli; Zheng, Lixia

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► Source and Destination countries involved in the movement of WEEE have been studied. ► Legislation, facilities and EPR are presented in Source and Destination countries. ► Mostly Destination countries do not have EPR established and have informal facilities. ► Source countries: good technology, EPR established and mostly WEEE regulation enacted. ► Regional WEEE recycling should be under global standards for Sources and Destinations. - Abstract: If we consider Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment (WEEE) management, we can see the development of different positions in developed and developing countries. This development started with the movement of WEEE from developed countries to the developing countries. However, when the consequences for health and the environment were observed, some developing countries introduced a ban on the import of this kind of waste under the umbrella of the Basel Convention, while some developed countries have been considering a regional or global WEEE recycling approach. This paper explores the current movements between Source and Destination countries, or the importers and exporters, and examines whether it is legal and why illegal traffic is still rife; how global initiatives could support a global WEEE management scheme; the recycling characteristics of the source an destination countries and also to ascertain whether the principle of Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) has been established between the different stakeholders involved in WEEE management. Ultimately, the Full Extended Producer Responsibility is presented as a possible solution because the compensation of the environmental capacity for WEEE recycling or treatment could be made by the contribution of extra responsibility; and also generating an uniform standard for processing WEEE in an environmentally sound manner could support the regional or international solution of WEEE and also improve the performance of the informal sector

AN INITIATIVE FOR CONSTRUCTION OF NEW-GENERATION LUNAR GLOBAL CONTROL NETWORK USING MULTI-MISSION DATA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Di

2017-07-01

Full Text Available A lunar global control network provides geodetic datum and control points for mapping of the lunar surface. The widely used Unified Lunar Control Network 2005 (ULCN2005 was built based on a combined photogrammetric solution of Clementine images acquired in 1994 and earlier photographic data. In this research, we propose an initiative for construction of a new-generation lunar global control network using multi-mission data newly acquired in the 21st century, which have much better resolution and precision than the old data acquired in the last century. The new control network will be based on a combined photogrammetric solution of an extended global image and laser altimetry network. The five lunar laser ranging retro-reflectors, which can be identified in LROC NAC images and have cm level 3D position accuracy, will be used as absolute control points in the least squares photogrammetric adjustment. Recently, a new radio total phase ranging method has been developed and used for high-precision positioning of Chang’e-3 lander; this shall offer a new absolute control point. Systematic methods and key techniques will be developed or enhanced, including rigorous and generic geometric modeling of orbital images, multi-scale feature extraction and matching among heterogeneous multi-mission remote sensing data, optimal selection of images at areas of multiple image coverages, and large-scale adjustment computation, etc. Based on the high-resolution new datasets and developed new techniques, the new generation of global control network is expected to have much higher accuracy and point density than the ULCN2005.

Governing the energy challenge : Canada and Germany in a multi-level regional and global context

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eberlein, B.; Doern, G.B.; Exeter Univ.,

2009-01-01

This book features essays by leading energy and public policy specialists from Canada and Germany. It originated in the Transatlantic Energy Conference which was hosted by the Canadian Centre for German and European Studies at Toronto's York University in September 2005. The conference was attended by leading energy scholars and experts from Canadian and European universities, research institutes and governmental and non-governmental organizations. The purpose of this book was to compare the dynamics of multi-level energy regulatory governance in Germany and Canada, notably the energy policy challenges that include energy security, environmental sustainability and a competitive resource economy. Many strategies to produce more efficient and sustainable energy are presented in the book. Part 1 of the book focuses on the energy industry, with particular emphasise on electricity, nuclear energy and natural gas. Part 2 of the book focuses on domestic patterns of multi-level energy governance and regulation in the two countries. As a member of the European Union, Germany is more advanced in dealing with multi-level governmental and sustainability constraints than Canada is as a member of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The book focuses on the influence that the energy sector and multi-level institutional arrangements have on energy governance, with particular attention to the link between environmental study, climate change issues and economic market reforms. The growing differences between NAFTA and European Union member countries were highlighted. refs., tabs., figs.

Healthy Cities in a global and regional context.

Science.gov (United States)

Lawrence, Roderick J; Fudge, Colin

2009-11-01

Since the beginning of the WHO European Healthy Cities Network in 1987, the global and regional contexts for the promotion of health and well-being have changed in many ways. First, in 2000, the United Nations Millennium Goals explicitly and implicitly addressed health promotion and prevention at the global and regional levels. Second, the concern for sustainable development at the Rio Conference in 1992 was confirmed at the World Summit in Johannesburg in 2002. During the same period, in many regions including Europe, the redefinition of the roles and responsibilities of national, regional and local governments, reductions in budgets of public administrations, the privatization of community and health services, the instability of world trade, the financial system and employment, migration flows, relatively high levels of unemployment (especially among youth and young adults) have occurred in many countries in tandem with negative impacts on specific policies and programmes that are meant to promote health. Since 1990, the European Commission has been explicitly concerned about the promotion of health, environment and social policies by defining strategic agendas for the urban environment, sustainable development and governance. However, empirical studies during the 1990s show that urban areas have relatively high levels of tuberculosis, respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, cancer, adult obesity, malnutrition, tobacco smoking, poor mental health, alcohol consumption and drug abuse, sexually transmitted diseases (including AIDS), crime, homicide, violence and accidental injury and death. In addition, there is evidence that urban populations in many industrialized countries are confronted with acute new health problems stemming from exposure to persistent organic pollutants, toxic substances in building structures, radioactive waste and increasing rates of food poisoning. These threats to public health indicate an urgent need for new strategic policies and

Estudio de alternativas para el mejoramiento de la calidad del aire en el municipio de Itagüí, resultado de un análisis bajo el esquema de análisis Energía Ambiente Economía con el modelo MARKAL y la Evaluación de metas.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

BUILES JARAMILLO LUIS ALEJANDRO

2010-05-01

Full Text Available Enmarcado en una propuesta metodológica para la formulación de lineamientos de acción para el mejoramiento de la calidad del aire en el Municipio de Itagüí, se emplea un modelo de optimización multi-periodo, basado en programación lineal, del tipo Energía-Ambiente-Economía (MARKAL-estándar y una metodología de Evaluación de metas normativas, para el análisis prospectivo de alternativas integrales de intervención en los sectores industria, transporte y de apoyo para la evaluación de normativa territorial en el municipio de Itagüí. Los resultados ofrecen información e indicadores transversales a diferentes aspectos que configuran la problemática de la calidad del aire y aportan una herramienta útil para la integración de aspectos asociados al mejoramiento de la calidad del recurso en la planeación local. La metodología es replicable en otros municipios del Valle de Aburrá

Focus: Assessing the regional impacts of global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Woo, Mingko

1992-01-01

Five studies are presented which assess the impacts of global warming on physical, economic, and social systems in Canada. A study on the use of climatic change scenarios to estimate ecoclimatic impacts was carried out. These scenarios may include synthetic scenarios produced from historical data, global climate model (GCM) simulations, and hybrid scenarios. The advantages and drawbacks of various scenarios are discussed along with the criteria for selecting impact assessment models. An examination of water resources in the Great Lakes and the Saskatchewan River subbasin uses case studies of two areas that have experienced wide hydrological variations due to climatic variability in order to determine the impacts of global warming scenarios on net basin supply. Problems of developing regional models are discussed and results of projected changes in net basin supply are presented for GCM-based simulations and hypothetical warming scenarios. A study of the impacts of climate warming on transportation and the regional economy in northern Canada uses stochastic models to provide examples of how Mackenzie River barge traffic will be affected. The economic impacts of the resultant lengthened shipping season are outlined under three scenarios. The implications of climatic change on Ontario agriculture are assessed according to GCM scenarios. Results are presented for crop yields and production as well as land resource suitability. Finally, sociocultural implications of global warming on the Arctic and the Inuit are summarized, with reference to a past warming episode occurring around the year 1000. 45 refs., 4 figs., 3 tabs

IMPACT OF GLOBAL RETAILERS ON REGIONAL MARKET PARTICIPANTS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. A. Evtyugina

2010-06-01

Full Text Available The given article is focused on a topical subject of global trade networks and the current trends of their development on a regional retail market. The authors believe that deep integration of international networks in the regions significantly increases the competition among network operators in the trade sector and creates a certain challenge for Russian retailers, and require introduction of innovative management techniques, automation of operational processes, expansion of assortment, better service, lower prices, etc. Research and assessment of the parameters given in the article help verifying an effect of international networks on the development process of regional market participants.

Marine debris: global and regional impacts

OpenAIRE

Torres N,Daniel; Berguño B,Jorge

2011-01-01

A synthesis on the Marine Debris problem is given upon de basis of the general knowledge on the matter as well as that obtained at Cape Shirreff, Livingston Island, South Shetland, Antarctica. It is suggested to improve the database on marine debris through permanent scientific research as well as with monitoring activities. It is necessary to coordinate key groups to apply strategies to identify types, sources, amount, interactions and socio-economic aspects of this global and regional probl...

When global rule reversal meets local task switching: The neural mechanisms of coordinated behavioral adaptation to instructed multi-level demand changes.

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Yiquan; Wolfensteller, Uta; Schubert, Torsten; Ruge, Hannes

2018-02-01

Cognitive flexibility is essential to cope with changing task demands and often it is necessary to adapt to combined changes in a coordinated manner. The present fMRI study examined how the brain implements such multi-level adaptation processes. Specifically, on a "local," hierarchically lower level, switching between two tasks was required across trials while the rules of each task remained unchanged for blocks of trials. On a "global" level regarding blocks of twelve trials, the task rules could reverse or remain the same. The current task was cued at the start of each trial while the current task rules were instructed before the start of a new block. We found that partly overlapping and partly segregated neural networks play different roles when coping with the combination of global rule reversal and local task switching. The fronto-parietal control network (FPN) supported the encoding of reversed rules at the time of explicit rule instruction. The same regions subsequently supported local task switching processes during actual implementation trials, irrespective of rule reversal condition. By contrast, a cortico-striatal network (CSN) including supplementary motor area and putamen was increasingly engaged across implementation trials and more so for rule reversal than for nonreversal blocks, irrespective of task switching condition. Together, these findings suggest that the brain accomplishes the coordinated adaptation to multi-level demand changes by distributing processing resources either across time (FPN for reversed rule encoding and later for task switching) or across regions (CSN for reversed rule implementation and FPN for concurrent task switching). © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Multi-model ensemble simulations of low flows in Europe under a 1.5, 2, and 3 degree global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Marx, A.; Kumar, R.; Thober, S.; Zink, M.; Wanders, N.; Wood, E. F.; Pan, M.; Sheffield, J.; Samaniego, L. E.

2017-12-01

There is growing evidence that climate change will alter water availability in Europe. Here, we investigate how hydrological low flows are affected under different levels of future global warming (i.e., 1.5, 2 and 3 K). The analysis is based on a multi-model ensemble of 45 hydrological simulations based on three RCPs (rcp2p6, rcp6p0, rcp8p5), five CMIP5 GCMs (GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, NorESM1-M) and three state-of-the-art hydrological models (HMs: mHM, Noah-MP, and PCR-GLOBWB). High resolution model results are available at the unprecedented spatial resolution of 5 km across the pan-European domain at daily temporal resolution. Low river flow is described as the percentile of daily streamflow that is exceeded 90% of the time. It is determined separately for each GCM/HM combinations and the warming scenarios. The results show that the change signal amplifies with increasing warming levels. Low flows decrease in the Mediterranean, while they increase in the Alpine and Northern regions. In the Mediterranean, the level of warming amplifies the signal from -12% under 1.5 K to -35% under 3 K global warming largely due to the projected decreases in annual precipitation. In contrast, the signal is amplified from +22% (1.5 K) to +45% (3 K) because of the reduced snow melt contribution. The changes in low flows are significant for regions with relatively large change signals and under higher levels of warming. Nevertheless, it is not possible to distinguish climate induced differences in low flows between 1.5 and 2 K warming because of the large variability inherent in the multi-model ensemble. The contribution by the GCMs to the uncertainty in the Alpine and Northern region as well as the Mediterranean, the uncertainty contribution by the HMs is partly higher than those by the GCMs due to different representations of processes such as snow, soil moisture and evapotranspiration.

Global Prioritization of Disease Candidate Metabolites Based on a Multi-omics Composite Network

Science.gov (United States)

Yao, Qianlan; Xu, Yanjun; Yang, Haixiu; Shang, Desi; Zhang, Chunlong; Zhang, Yunpeng; Sun, Zeguo; Shi, Xinrui; Feng, Li; Han, Junwei; Su, Fei; Li, Chunquan; Li, Xia

2015-01-01

The identification of disease-related metabolites is important for a better understanding of metabolite pathological processes in order to improve human medicine. Metabolites, which are the terminal products of cellular regulatory process, can be affected by multi-omic processes. In this work, we propose a powerful method, MetPriCNet, to predict and prioritize disease candidate metabolites based on integrated multi-omics information. MetPriCNet prioritized candidate metabolites based on their global distance similarity with seed nodes in a composite network, which integrated multi-omics information from the genome, phenome, metabolome and interactome. After performing cross-validation on 87 phenotypes with a total of 602 metabolites, MetPriCNet achieved a high AUC value of up to 0.918. We also assessed the performance of MetPriCNet on 18 disease classes and found that 4 disease classes achieved an AUC value over 0.95. Notably, MetPriCNet can also predict disease metabolites without known disease metabolite knowledge. Some new high-risk metabolites of breast cancer were predicted, although there is a lack of known disease metabolite information. A predicted disease metabolic landscape was constructed and analyzed based on the results of MetPriCNet for 87 phenotypes to help us understand the genetic and metabolic mechanism of disease from a global view. PMID:26598063

Modelling innovation performance of European regions using multi-output neural networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Hajek, Petr; Henriques, Roberto

2017-01-01

Regional innovation performance is an important indicator for decision-making regarding the implementation of policies intended to support innovation. However, patterns in regional innovation structures are becoming increasingly diverse, complex and nonlinear. To address these issues, this study aims to develop a model based on a multi-output neural network. Both intra- and inter-regional determinants of innovation performance are empirically investigated using data from the 4th and 5th Community Innovation Surveys of NUTS 2 (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics) regions. The results suggest that specific innovation strategies must be developed based on the current state of input attributes in the region. Thus, it is possible to develop appropriate strategies and targeted interventions to improve regional innovation performance. We demonstrate that support of entrepreneurship is an effective instrument of innovation policy. We also provide empirical support that both business and government R&D activity have a sigmoidal effect, implying that the most effective R&D support should be directed to regions with below-average and average R&D activity. We further show that the multi-output neural network outperforms traditional statistical and machine learning regression models. In general, therefore, it seems that the proposed model can effectively reflect both the multiple-output nature of innovation performance and the interdependency of the output attributes.

Modelling innovation performance of European regions using multi-output neural networks.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Petr Hajek

Full Text Available Regional innovation performance is an important indicator for decision-making regarding the implementation of policies intended to support innovation. However, patterns in regional innovation structures are becoming increasingly diverse, complex and nonlinear. To address these issues, this study aims to develop a model based on a multi-output neural network. Both intra- and inter-regional determinants of innovation performance are empirically investigated using data from the 4th and 5th Community Innovation Surveys of NUTS 2 (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics regions. The results suggest that specific innovation strategies must be developed based on the current state of input attributes in the region. Thus, it is possible to develop appropriate strategies and targeted interventions to improve regional innovation performance. We demonstrate that support of entrepreneurship is an effective instrument of innovation policy. We also provide empirical support that both business and government R&D activity have a sigmoidal effect, implying that the most effective R&D support should be directed to regions with below-average and average R&D activity. We further show that the multi-output neural network outperforms traditional statistical and machine learning regression models. In general, therefore, it seems that the proposed model can effectively reflect both the multiple-output nature of innovation performance and the interdependency of the output attributes.

Regional energy resource development and energy security under CO2 emission constraint in the greater Mekong sub-region countries (GMS)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Watcharejyothin, Mayurachat; Shrestha, Ram M.

2009-01-01

The paper evaluates effects of energy resource development within the Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS) on energy supply mix, energy system cost, energy security and environment during 2000-2035. A MARKAL-based integrated energy system model of the five GMS countries was developed to examine benefits of regional energy resource development for meeting the energy demand of these countries. The study found that an unrestricted energy resource development and trade within the region would reduce the total-regional energy systems cost by 18% and would abate the total CO 2 emission by 5% as compared to the base case. All the five countries except Myanmar would benefit from the expansion of regional energy resource integration in terms of lower energy systems costs and better environmental qualities. An imposition of CO 2 emission reduction constraint by 5% on each of the study countries from that of the corresponding emissions under the unrestricted energy resource development in the GMS is found to improve energy security, reduce energy import and fossil fuels dependences and increase volume of power trade within the region. The total energy system cost under the joint CO 2 emission reduction strategy would be less costly than that under the individual emission targets set for each country.

Musical taste, employment, education, and global region.

Science.gov (United States)

North, Adrian C; Davidson, Jane W

2013-10-01

Sociologists have argued that musical taste should vary between social groups, but have not considered whether the effect extends beyond taste into uses of music and also emotional reactions to music. Moreover, previous research has ignored the culture in which participants are located. The present research employed a large sample from five post-industrial global regions and showed that musical taste differed between regions but not according to education and employment; and that there were three-way interactions between education, employment, and region in the uses to which participants put music and also their typical emotional reactions. In addition to providing partial support for existing sociological theory, the findings highlight the potential of culture as a variable in future quantitative research on taste. © 2013 The Scandinavian Psychological Associations.

Regional strategies for the accelerating global problem of groundwater depletion

Science.gov (United States)

Aeschbach-Hertig, Werner; Gleeson, Tom

2012-12-01

Groundwater--the world's largest freshwater resource--is critically important for irrigated agriculture and hence for global food security. Yet depletion is widespread in large groundwater systems in both semi-arid and humid regions of the world. Excessive extraction for irrigation where groundwater is slowly renewed is the main cause of the depletion, and climate change has the potential to exacerbate the problem in some regions. Globally aggregated groundwater depletion contributes to sea-level rise, and has accelerated markedly since the mid-twentieth century. But its impacts on water resources are more obvious at the regional scale, for example in agriculturally important parts of India, China and the United States. Food production in such regions can only be made sustainable in the long term if groundwater levels are stabilized. To this end, a transformation is required in how we value, manage and characterize groundwater systems. Technical approaches--such as water diversion, artificial groundwater recharge and efficient irrigation--have failed to balance regional groundwater budgets. They need to be complemented by more comprehensive strategies that are adapted to the specific social, economic, political and environmental settings of each region.

Multi-Model Validation in the Chesapeake Bay Region in June 2010

Science.gov (United States)

2013-05-31

ADOR/Director NCST E. R. Franchi , 7000 Public Affairs (Unclassified/ Unlimited Only), Code 7030_4 X no ---~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~-~-~~-~------------ thor...US Navy at global , regional and coastal scales (Rowley 2008, 2010). The NCOM model in the Chesapeake Bay region for this exercise is configured in...derived from the NRL DBDB2 global bathymetry database. Boundary forcing and initial conditions were extracted from the East Coast NCOM which has a 3-km

Regional energy resource development and energy security under CO{sub 2} emission constraint in the greater Mekong sub-region countries (GMS)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Watcharejyothin, Mayurachat; Shrestha, Ram M. [School of Environment, Resources and Development, Asian Institute of Technology (Thailand)

2009-11-15

The paper evaluates effects of energy resource development within the Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS) on energy supply mix, energy system cost, energy security and environment during 2000-2035. A MARKAL-based integrated energy system model of the five GMS countries was developed to examine benefits of regional energy resource development for meeting the energy demand of these countries. The study found that an unrestricted energy resource development and trade within the region would reduce the total-regional energy systems cost by 18% and would abate the total CO{sub 2} emission by 5% as compared to the base case. All the five countries except Myanmar would benefit from the expansion of regional energy resource integration in terms of lower energy systems costs and better environmental qualities. An imposition of CO{sub 2} emission reduction constraint by 5% on each of the study countries from that of the corresponding emissions under the unrestricted energy resource development in the GMS is found to improve energy security, reduce energy import and fossil fuels dependences and increase volume of power trade within the region. The total energy system cost under the joint CO{sub 2} emission reduction strategy would be less costly than that under the individual emission targets set for each country. (author)

Integrating global socio-economic influences into a regional land use change model for China

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Xia; Gao, Qiong; Peng, Changhui; Cui, Xuefeng; Liu, Yinghui; Jiang, Li

2014-03-01

With rapid economic development and urbanization, land use in China has experienced huge changes in recent years; and this will probably continue in the future. Land use problems in China are urgent and need further study. Rapid land-use change and economic development make China an ideal region for integrated land use change studies, particularly the examination of multiple factors and global-regional interactions in the context of global economic integration. This paper presents an integrated modeling approach to examine the impact of global socio-economic processes on land use changes at a regional scale. We develop an integrated model system by coupling a simple global socio-economic model (GLOBFOOD) and regional spatial allocation model (CLUE). The model system is illustrated with an application to land use in China. For a given climate change, population growth, and various socio-economic situations, a global socio-economic model simulates the impact of global market and economy on land use, and quantifies changes of different land use types. The land use spatial distribution model decides the type of land use most appropriate in each spatial grid by employing a weighted suitability index, derived from expert knowledge about the ecosystem state and site conditions. A series of model simulations will be conducted and analyzed to demonstrate the ability of the integrated model to link global socioeconomic factors with regional land use changes in China. The results allow an exploration of the future dynamics of land use and landscapes in China.

Regional or global WEEE recycling. Where to go?

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Jinhui; Lopez, Brenda N; Liu, Lili; Zhao, Nana; Yu, Keli; Zheng, Lixia

2013-04-01

If we consider Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment (WEEE) management, we can see the development of different positions in developed and developing countries. This development started with the movement of WEEE from developed countries to the developing countries. However, when the consequences for health and the environment were observed, some developing countries introduced a ban on the import of this kind of waste under the umbrella of the Basel Convention, while some developed countries have been considering a regional or global WEEE recycling approach. This paper explores the current movements between Source and Destination countries, or the importers and exporters, and examines whether it is legal and why illegal traffic is still rife; how global initiatives could support a global WEEE management scheme; the recycling characteristics of the source an destination countries and also to ascertain whether the principle of Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) has been established between the different stakeholders involved in WEEE management. Ultimately, the Full Extended Producer Responsibility is presented as a possible solution because the compensation of the environmental capacity for WEEE recycling or treatment could be made by the contribution of extra responsibility; and also generating an uniform standard for processing WEEE in an environmentally sound manner could support the regional or international solution of WEEE and also improve the performance of the informal sector. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A comparison of regional and global catastrophic hazards associated with energy technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heising, C.D.; Inhaber, H.

1983-01-01

This paper reviews some of what is known about the relative catastrophic hazards, on both a regional and global level, of energy technologies, and proposes a logical framework for their comparison. A review of the Inhaber study results is made indicating the relative position of overall nuclear power related risks. Then, concentration is placed on describing the catastrophic and global hazards of energy technologies. Regionally catastrophic hazards include sabotage and other malicious human activities, in addition to severe accidents caused inadvertantly by man, such as fires, reactor core damage events, chemical and poisonous gas releases, fuel storage fires and explosions, in addition to others. Global risks include such hazards as nuclear proliferation, CO 2 , build-up, oil shortages and possible national conflicts over dwindling energy fuels. The conclusion is drawn that consideration of both regional and global catastrophic risks must be made in making energy decisions, and that further study is necessary to better quantify and compare these risks. A simple decision analytic framework for making energy decisions inclusive of catastrophic risk is proposed

Approaching the Kyoto targets: a case study for Basilicata region (Italy)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Salvia, M.; Cuomo, V. [Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Tito Scalo (Italy). Istituto di Metodologie per l' Analisi Ambientale; Pietrapertosa, F. [Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Tito Scalo (Italy). Istituto di Metodologie per l' Analisi Ambientale; Universita degli Studi della Basilicata, Potenza (Italy). Dip. di Ingegneria e Fisica dell' Ambiente; Cosmi, C. [Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Tito Scalo (Italy). Istituto di Metodologie per l' Analisi Ambientale; Istituto Nazionale di Fisica della Materia, Napoli (Italy); Macchiato, M. [Universita Federico II, Napoli (Italy). Dip. di Scienze Fisiche

2004-02-01

Approaching the national Kyoto Protocol (KP) targets involves a re-definition of the actual configuration of local energy systems. This study deals with a local scale application of the IEA-MARKAL models generator, in which the anthropogenic system of Basilicata Region (Southern Italy) is investigated to support the definition of coherent long- term strategies and sound climate protection policies. A scenario by scenario analysis points out the behaviour of the optimal mix of fuels and technologies in the presence of carbon dioxide emissions constraints. Trade off curves and reduced costs analyses outline the most effective actions for contributing to the national KP targets, with particular emphasis on the interventions in Civil (Residential, Commercial and Services) and waste management sectors. (author)

Global change and sustainable development. A modelling perspective for the next decade

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rotmans, J.; Van Asselt, M.B.A.; De Bruin, A.J.; Den Elzen, M.G.J.; De greef, J.; Hilderink, H.; Hoekstra, A.Y.; Janssen, M.A.; Koester, H.W.; Martens, W.J.M.; Niessen, L.W.; De Vries, H.J.M.

1994-06-01

The main objective of the title program is to develop an integrated modelling framework for analysing global change and sustainable development. The framework to be developed is referred to as TARGETS: Tool to Assess Regional and Global Environmental and health Targets for Sustainability. The research is based on a systems-based, integrated modelling approach and has a multi- and interdisciplinary character. A top-down approach is chosen: analysis starts at the global level and will be disaggregated to the level of major world regions. Alliance has been sought with the IMAGE project team in regard to data collection, regionalization and aggregation levels. The modelling framework is to be used by both researchers and policy analysts. In this report attention is paid to the requirements of an integrated systems approach (a multi-disciplinary systems analysis, quantification of uncertainties, and visualization of various system perspectives); the TARGETS model; the use of sustainability indicators to monitor the pressure on, the status of, and the impact on the global environment, which are linked to TARGETS; the scientific and cultural perspectives from which to describe and evaluate the global change phenomenon; the expected results; and finally the organizational embedment of the title programme. 19 figs., 3 tabs., 200 refs

Parasites and vectors carry no passport: how to fund cross-border and regional efforts to achieve malaria elimination

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gueye Cara

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Tremendous progress has been made in the last ten years in reducing morbidity and mortality caused by malaria, in part because of increases in global funding for malaria control and elimination. Today, many countries are striving for malaria elimination. However, a major challenge is the neglect of cross-border and regional initiatives in malaria control and elimination. This paper seeks to better understand Global Fund support for multi-country initiatives. Methods Documents and proposals were extracted and reviewed from two main sources, the Global Fund website and Aidspan.org. Documents and reports from the Global Fund Technical Review Panel, Board, and Secretariat documents such as guidelines and proposal templates were reviewed to establish the type of policies enacted and guidance provided from the Global Fund on multi-country initiatives and applications. From reviewing this information, the researchers created 29 variables according to eight dimensions to use in a review of Round 10 applications. All Round 10 multi-country applications (for HIV, malaria and tuberculosis and all malaria multi-country applications (6 from Rounds 1 – 10 were extracted from the Global Fund website. A blind review was conducted of Round 10 applications using the 29 variables as a framework, followed by a review of four of the six successful malaria multi-country grant applications from Rounds 1 – 10. Findings During Rounds 3 – 10 of the Global Fund, only 5.8% of grants submitted were for multi-country initiatives. Out of 83 multi-country proposals submitted, 25.3% were approved by the Technical Review Panel (TRP for funding, compared to 44.9% of single-country applications. The majority of approved multi-country applications were for HIV (76.2%, followed by malaria (19.0%, then tuberculosis (4.8%. TRP recommendations resulted in improvements to application forms, although guidance was generally vague. The in-depth review of Round 10

A New Globalization Paradigm: World Unity or Alternatives for Development?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oleg Shvydanenko

2005-02-01

Full Text Available This article deals with the conceptual foundations of the modern global economic system of development. It reflects the cyclical nature of changes to and the details of global integration processes. The creation of a global economy from a multi-paradigmatic angle is briefly outlined, taking into account the modern paradigms of globalization and the predominance of alternatives to the future development of a global economic space. The article investigates the development of a new type of world economy, a multi-system with a proven role for linkages and a more consolidated world economy. The article reveals the initial conditions for and main qualitative changes related to the integrated development of a complex network of interdependent national societies and macro-regional geo-economic structures. The article also reveals changes in the configuration of those factors that provide competitiveness for these societies and geo-economic formations.

Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990-2010

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Feigin, Valery L; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H; Krishnamurthi, Rita

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND: Although stroke is the second leading cause of death worldwide, no comprehensive and comparable assessment of incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability, and epidemiological trends has been estimated for most regions. We used data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Ri...

National, Regional and Global Certification Bodies for Polio Eradication: A Framework for Verifying Measles Elimination.

Science.gov (United States)

Deblina Datta, S; Tangermann, Rudolf H; Reef, Susan; William Schluter, W; Adams, Anthony

2017-07-01

The Global Certification Commission (GCC), Regional Certification Commissions (RCCs), and National Certification Committees (NCCs) provide a framework of independent bodies to assist the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) in certifying and maintaining polio eradication in a standardized, ongoing, and credible manner. Their members meet regularly to comprehensively review population immunity, surveillance, laboratory, and other data to assess polio status in the country (NCC), World Health Organization (WHO) region (RCC), or globally (GCC). These highly visible bodies provide a framework to be replicated to independently verify measles and rubella elimination in the regions and globally. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

The two-loop symbol of all multi-Regge regions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bargheer, Till; Papathanasiou, Georgios; Schomerus, Volker

2016-01-01

We study the symbol of the two-loop n-gluon MHV amplitude for all Mandelstam regions in multi-Regge kinematics in N=4 super Yang-Mills theory. While the number of distinct Mandelstam regions grows exponentially with n, the increase of independent symbols turns out to be merely quadratic. We uncover how to construct the symbols for any number of external gluons from just two building blocks which are naturally associated with the six- and seven-gluon amplitude, respectively. The second building block is entirely new, and in addition to its symbol, we also construct a prototype function that correctly reproduces all terms of maximal functional transcendentality.

The two-loop symbol of all multi-Regge regions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bargheer, Till; Schomerus, Volker; Papathanasiou, Georgios

2015-12-01

We study the symbol of the two-loop n-gluon MHV amplitude for all Mandelstam regions in multi-Regge kinematics in N= 4 super Yang-Mills theory. While the number of distinct Mandelstam regions grows exponentially with n, the increase of independent symbols turns out to be merely quadratic. We uncover how to construct the symbols for any number of external gluons from just two building blocks which are naturally associated with the six- and seven-gluon amplitude, respectively. The second building block is entirely new, and in addition to its symbol, we also construct a prototype function that correctly reproduces all terms of maximal functional transcendentality.

Global, Regional, and National Burden of Rheumatic Heart Disease, 1990-2015.

Science.gov (United States)

Watkins, David A; Johnson, Catherine O; Colquhoun, Samantha M; Karthikeyan, Ganesan; Beaton, Andrea; Bukhman, Gene; Forouzanfar, Mohammed H; Longenecker, Christopher T; Mayosi, Bongani M; Mensah, George A; Nascimento, Bruno R; Ribeiro, Antonio L P; Sable, Craig A; Steer, Andrew C; Naghavi, Mohsen; Mokdad, Ali H; Murray, Christopher J L; Vos, Theo; Carapetis, Jonathan R; Roth, Gregory A

2017-08-24

Rheumatic heart disease remains an important preventable cause of cardiovascular death and disability, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries. We estimated global, regional, and national trends in the prevalence of and mortality due to rheumatic heart disease as part of the 2015 Global Burden of Disease study. We systematically reviewed data on fatal and nonfatal rheumatic heart disease for the period from 1990 through 2015. Two Global Burden of Disease analytic tools, the Cause of Death Ensemble model and DisMod-MR 2.1, were used to produce estimates of mortality and prevalence, including estimates of uncertainty. We estimated that there were 319,400 (95% uncertainty interval, 297,300 to 337,300) deaths due to rheumatic heart disease in 2015. Global age-standardized mortality due to rheumatic heart disease decreased by 47.8% (95% uncertainty interval, 44.7 to 50.9) from 1990 to 2015, but large differences were observed across regions. In 2015, the highest age-standardized mortality due to and prevalence of rheumatic heart disease were observed in Oceania, South Asia, and central sub-Saharan Africa. We estimated that in 2015 there were 33.4 million (95% uncertainty interval, 29.7 million to 43.1 million) cases of rheumatic heart disease and 10.5 million (95% uncertainty interval, 9.6 million to 11.5 million) disability-adjusted life-years due to rheumatic heart disease globally. We estimated the global disease prevalence of and mortality due to rheumatic heart disease over a 25-year period. The health-related burden of rheumatic heart disease has declined worldwide, but high rates of disease persist in some of the poorest regions in the world. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the Medtronic Foundation.).

Improvement of Global and Regional Mean Sea Level Trends Derived from all Altimetry Missions.

Science.gov (United States)

Ablain, Michael; Benveniste, Jérôme; Faugere, Yannice; Larnicol, Gilles; Cazenave, Anny; Johannessen, Johnny A.; Stammer, Detlef; Timms, Gary

2012-07-01

The global mean sea level (GMSL) has been calculated on a continual basis since January 1993 using data from satellite altimetry missions. The global mean sea level (MSL) deduced from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1 and Jason-2 is increasing with a global trend of 3.2 mm from 1993 to 2010 applying the post glacial rebound (MSL Aviso website http://www.jason.oceanobs.com/msl). Besides, the regional sea level trends bring out an inhomogeneous repartition of the ocean elevation with local MSL slopes ranging from +/- 8 mm/year. A study published in 2009 [Ablain et al., 2009] has shown that the global MSL trend uncertainty was estimated at +/-0.6 mm/year with a confidence interval of 90%. The main sources of errors at global and regional scales are due to the orbit calculation and the wet troposphere correction. But others sea-level components have also a significant impact on the long-term stability of MSL as for instance the stability of instrumental parameters and the atmospheric corrections. Thanks to recent studies performed in Sea Level Essential Climate Variable Project in the frame of the Climate Change Initiative, an ESA Programme, in addition to activities performed within the SALP/CNES, strong improvements have been provided for the estimation of the global and regional MSL trends. In this paper, we propose to describe them; they concern the orbit calculation thanks to new gravity fields, the atmospheric corrections thanks to ERA-interim reanalyses, the wet troposphere corrections thanks to the stability improvement, and also empirical corrections allowing us to link regional time series together better. These improvements are described at global and regional scale for all the altimetry missions.

Evolution of global contribution in multi-level threshold public goods games with insurance compensation

Science.gov (United States)

Du, Jinming; Tang, Lixin

2018-01-01

Understanding voluntary contribution in threshold public goods games has important practical implications. To improve contributions and provision frequency, free-rider problem and assurance problem should be solved. Insurance could play a significant, but largely unrecognized, role in facilitating a contribution to provision of public goods through providing insurance compensation against the losses. In this paper, we study how insurance compensation mechanism affects individuals’ decision-making under risk environments. We propose a multi-level threshold public goods game model where two kinds of public goods games (local and global) are considered. Particularly, the global public goods game involves a threshold, which is related to the safety of all the players. We theoretically probe the evolution of contributions of different levels and free-riders, and focus on the influence of the insurance on the global contribution. We explore, in both the cases, the scenarios that only global contributors could buy insurance and all the players could. It is found that with greater insurance compensation, especially under high collective risks, players are more likely to contribute globally when only global contributors are insured. On the other hand, global contribution could be promoted if a premium discount is given to global contributors when everyone buys insurance.

FIREX (Fire Influence on Regional and Global Environments Experiment): Measurements of Nitrogen Containing Volatile Organic Compounds

Science.gov (United States)

Warneke, C.; Schwarz, J. P.; Yokelson, R. J.; Roberts, J. M.; Koss, A.; Coggon, M.; Yuan, B.; Sekimoto, K.

2017-12-01

A combination of a warmer, drier climate with fire-control practices over the last century have produced a situation in which we can expect more frequent fires and fires of larger magnitude in the Western U.S. and Canada. There are urgent needs to better understand the impacts of wildfire and biomass burning (BB) on the atmosphere and climate system, and for policy-relevant science to aid in the process of managing fires. The FIREX (Fire Influence on Regional and Global Environment Experiment) research effort is a multi-year, multi-agency measurement campaign focused on the impact of BB on climate and air quality from western North American wild fires, where research takes place on scales ranging from the flame-front to the global atmosphere. FIREX includes methods development and small- and large-scale laboratory and field experiments. FIREX will include: emission factor measurements from typical North American fuels in the fire science laboratory in Missoula, Montana; mobile laboratory deployments; ground site measurements at sites influenced by BB from several western states. The main FIREX effort will be a large field study with multiple aircraft and mobile labs in the fire season of 2019. One of the main advances of FIREX is the availability of various new measurement techniques that allows for smoke evaluation in unprecedented detail. The first major effort of FIREX was the fire science laboratory measurements in October 2016, where a large number of previously understudied Nitrogen containing volatile organic compounds (NVOCs) were measured using H3O+CIMS and I-CIMS instruments. The contribution of NVOCs to the total reactive Nitrogen budget and the relationship to the Nitrogen content of the fuel are investigated.

Measurement of global and regional left ventricular performance with isotope technique in coronary heart disease

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bostroem, P.-A.; Svensson, M.; Lilja, B.

1988-01-01

To evaluate left ventricular function in coronary artery disease, radionuclide measurements of global and regional ejection fraction (EF), regional wall motion and phase analyses of left ventricular contraction were performed by equilibrium technique, using sup(99m)Tc. One group of patients with angina pectoris and one group with myocardial infarction were compared with a control group. All above-mentioned parameters significantly separated the infarction group from the reference group both at rest and during work, while the group of patients with angina pectoris showed disturbances mainly during work, such as impaired ability to increase global and regional ejection fraction and regional wall motion. Adding regional analysis and phase analysis to the global EF determination increases the possibility of studying the left ventricular function. However, this addition has a limited value in detecting impaired left ventricular function compared to the determination of just global EF in patients with angina pectoris and in patients with myocardial infarction. (author)

Multi-Model Assessment of Global Hydropower and Cooling Water Discharge Potential Under Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

van Vliet, M. T. H.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Eisener, S.; Wada, Y.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

2016-01-01

Worldwide, 98% of total electricity is currently produced by thermoelectric power and hydropower. Climate change is expected to directly impact electricity supply, in terms of both water availability for hydropower generation and cooling water usage for thermoelectric power. Improved understanding of how climate change may impact the availability and temperature of water resources is therefore of major importance. Here we use a multi-model ensemble to show the potential impacts of climate change on global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential. For the first time, combined projections of streamflow and water temperature were produced with three global hydrological models (GHMs) to account for uncertainties in the structure and parametrization of these GHMs in both water availability and water temperature. The GHMs were forced with bias-corrected output of five general circulation models (GCMs) for both the lowest and highest representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The ensemble projections of streamflow and water temperature were then used to quantify impacts on gross hydropower potential and cooling water discharge capacity of rivers worldwide. We show that global gross hydropower potential is expected to increase between +2.4% (GCM-GHM ensemble mean for RCP 2.6) and +6.3% (RCP 8.5) for the 2080s compared to 1971-2000. The strongest increases in hydropower potential are expected for Central Africa, India, central Asia and the northern high-latitudes, with 18-33% of the world population living in these areas by the 2080s. Global mean cooling water discharge capacity is projected to decrease by 4.5-15% (2080s). The largest reductions are found for the United States, Europe, eastern Asia, and southern parts of South America, Africa and Australia, where strong water temperature increases are projected combined with reductions in mean annual streamflow. These regions are expected to affect 11-14% (for RCP2.6 and the shared socioeconomic

The effects of global changes upon regional ozone pollution in the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, J.; Avise, J.; Lamb, B.; Salathé, E.; Mass, C.; Guenther, A.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Lamarque, J.-F.; O'Neill, S.; McKenzie, D.; Larkin, N.

2009-02-01

A comprehensive numerical modeling framework was developed to estimate the effects of collective global changes upon ozone pollution in the US in 2050. The framework consists of the global climate and chemistry models, PCM (Parallel Climate Model) and MOZART-2 (Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers v.2), coupled with regional meteorology and chemistry models, MM5 (Mesoscale Meteorological model) and CMAQ (Community Multi-scale Air Quality model). The modeling system was applied for two 10-year simulations: 1990-1999 as a present-day base case and 2045-2054 as a future case. For the current decade, the daily maximum 8-h moving average (DM8H) ozone mixing ratio distributions for spring, summer and fall showed good agreement with observations. The future case simulation followed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A2 scenario together with business-as-usual US emission projections and projected alterations in land use, land cover (LULC) due to urban expansion and changes in vegetation. For these projections, US anthropogenic NOx (NO+NO2) and VOC (volatile organic carbon) emissions increased by approximately 6% and 50%, respectively, while biogenic VOC emissions decreased, in spite of warmer temperatures, due to decreases in forested lands and expansion of croplands, grasslands and urban areas. A stochastic model for wildfire emissions was applied that projected 25% higher VOC emissions in the future. For the global and US emission projection used here, regional ozone pollution becomes worse in the 2045-2054 period for all months. Annually, the mean DM8H ozone was projected to increase by 9.6 ppbv (22%). The changes were higher in the spring and winter (25%) and smaller in the summer (17%). The area affected by elevated ozone within the US continent was projected to increase; areas with levels exceeding the 75 ppbv ozone standard at least once a year increased by 38%. In addition, the length of the ozone season was projected to increase with

Computation of multi-region relaxed magnetohydrodynamic equilibria

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hudson, S. R.; Lazerson, S. [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, P.O. Box 451, Princeton, New Jersey 08543 (United States); Dewar, R. L.; Dennis, G.; Hole, M. J.; McGann, M.; Nessi, G. von [Plasma Research Laboratory, Research School of Physics and Engineering, Australian National University, Canberra ACT 0200 (Australia)

2012-11-15

We describe the construction of stepped-pressure equilibria as extrema of a multi-region, relaxed magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) energy functional that combines elements of ideal MHD and Taylor relaxation, and which we call MRXMHD. The model is compatible with Hamiltonian chaos theory and allows the three-dimensional MHD equilibrium problem to be formulated in a well-posed manner suitable for computation. The energy-functional is discretized using a mixed finite-element, Fourier representation for the magnetic vector potential and the equilibrium geometry; and numerical solutions are constructed using the stepped-pressure equilibrium code, SPEC. Convergence studies with respect to radial and Fourier resolution are presented.

Multi-region optimal deployment of renewable energy considering different interregional transmission scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Ge; Zhang, Qi; Mclellan, Benjamin C.; Li, Hailong

2016-01-01

Renewable energy is expected to play much more important role in future low-carbon energy system, however, renewable energy has problems with regard to load-following and regional imbalance. This study aims to plan the deployment of intermittent renewable energy in multiple regions considering the impacts of regional natural conditions and generation capacity mix as well as interregional transmission capacity using a multi-region dynamic optimization model. The model was developed to find optimized development paths toward future smart electricity systems with high level penetration of intermittent renewable energy considering regional differences and interregional transmission at national scale. As a case study, the model was applied to plan power generation in nine interconnected regions in Japan out to 2030. Four scenarios were proposed with different supporting policies for the interregional power transmission infrastructures and different nuclear power phase-out scenarios. The analysis results show that (i) the government's support for power transmission infrastructures is vital important to develop more intermittent renewable energy in appropriate regions and utilize renewable energy more efficiently; (ii) nuclear and renewable can complement rather than replace each other if enough interregional transmission capacity is provided. - Highlights: • Plan the optimal deployment of intermittent renewable energy in multiple regions. • A multi-region dynamic optimization model was developed. • The impacts of natural conditions and interregional transmission are studied. • The government's support for transmission is vital important for renewable energy. • Nuclear and renewable can complement rather than replace each other.

A regional response to global climate change: New England and eastern Canada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Houtman, N.

1994-01-01

Resource managers, scientists, and policy makers from New England and eastern Canada assembled at a 1993 symposium to consider the regional implications of global climate change and to develop state and provincial adaptation strategies. A summary is presented of issues discussed at this meeting, information gaps identified, and recommendations for an appropriate regional response. The symposium began with a regional overview and a review of the climate system and possible environmental impacts of global warming. Policy implications were also discussed. Working groups considered issues related to energy use, ecosystems, fisheries, forestry and agriculture, recreation and tourism, and sea level rise. Given the remaining uncertainties about the timing and extent of global warming, especially on a regional scale, the symposium recommended adoption of a series of measures which are beneficial in their own right and in the face of present variations of climate and its extremes. The recommendations were characterized by three broad themes: diversification of the natural resources based economy; risks to human health, ecological communities, and economic infrastructure; and information development and sharing. Proposed strategies were grouped in four major categories: adaptation to future changes; trend assessment; education; and limitation of greenhouse gas emissions

Global and Regional Impacts of the Clean Development Mechanism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Shunli; De Groot, H.L.F.; Nijkamp, P.; Verhoef, E.T.

2009-05-01

Climate change is a serious concern worldwide. Policy research on climate change in the past decades has largely focused on applied modelling exercises. However, the implications of specific policy strategies such as the clean development mechanism (CDM) for global and regional economic and environmental developments has received relatively little attention. This is partly caused by the complexities of modelling an instrument like CDM. By using and modifying the GTAP-E modelling system (GTAP stands for Global Trade Analysis Project), this paper sets out to trace the combined economic and environmental impacts of CDM policies. Particular emphasis is placed on technology transfer induced by alternative CDM policies. Specific attention is devoted to the possible negative consequences of non-participation of the USA in the global coalition, and the associated distributional impacts world-wide.

Global and Regional Impacts of the Clean Development Mechanism

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Shunli; De Groot, H.L.F.; Nijkamp, P.; Verhoef, E.T. [VU University, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

2009-05-15

Climate change is a serious concern worldwide. Policy research on climate change in the past decades has largely focused on applied modelling exercises. However, the implications of specific policy strategies such as the clean development mechanism (CDM) for global and regional economic and environmental developments has received relatively little attention. This is partly caused by the complexities of modelling an instrument like CDM. By using and modifying the GTAP-E modelling system (GTAP stands for Global Trade Analysis Project), this paper sets out to trace the combined economic and environmental impacts of CDM policies. Particular emphasis is placed on technology transfer induced by alternative CDM policies. Specific attention is devoted to the possible negative consequences of non-participation of the USA in the global coalition, and the associated distributional impacts world-wide.

Multi-Task Vehicle Detection with Region-of-Interest Voting.

Science.gov (United States)

Chu, Wenqing; Liu, Yao; Shen, Chen; Cai, Deng; Hua, Xian-Sheng

2017-10-12

Vehicle detection is a challenging problem in autonomous driving systems, due to its large structural and appearance variations. In this paper, we propose a novel vehicle detection scheme based on multi-task deep convolutional neural networks (CNN) and region-of-interest (RoI) voting. In the design of CNN architecture, we enrich the supervised information with subcategory, region overlap, bounding-box regression and category of each training RoI as a multi-task learning framework. This design allows the CNN model to share visual knowledge among different vehicle attributes simultaneously, thus detection robustness can be effectively improved. In addition, most existing methods consider each RoI independently, ignoring the clues from its neighboring RoIs. In our approach, we utilize the CNN model to predict the offset direction of each RoI boundary towards the corresponding ground truth. Then each RoI can vote those suitable adjacent bounding boxes which are consistent with this additional information. The voting results are combined with the score of each RoI itself to find a more accurate location from a large number of candidates. Experimental results on the real-world computer vision benchmarks KITTI and the PASCAL2007 vehicle dataset show that our approach achieves superior performance in vehicle detection compared with other existing published works.

Global and regional emission estimates for HCFC-22

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. Saikawa

2012-11-01

Full Text Available HCFC-22 (CHClF₂, chlorodifluoromethane is an ozone-depleting substance (ODS as well as a significant greenhouse gas (GHG. HCFC-22 has been used widely as a refrigerant fluid in cooling and air-conditioning equipment since the 1960s, and it has also served as a traditional substitute for some chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs controlled under the Montreal Protocol. A low frequency record on tropospheric HCFC-22 since the late 1970s is available from measurements of the Southern Hemisphere Cape Grim Air Archive (CGAA and a few Northern Hemisphere air samples (mostly from Trinidad Head using the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE instrumentation and calibrations. Since the 1990s high-frequency, high-precision, in situ HCFC-22 measurements have been collected at these AGAGE stations. Since 1992, the Global Monitoring Division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA/ESRL has also collected flasks on a weekly basis from remote sites across the globe and analyzed them for a suite of halocarbons including HCFC-22. Additionally, since 2006 flasks have been collected approximately daily at a number of tower sites across the US and analyzed for halocarbons and other gases at NOAA. All results show an increase in the atmospheric mole fractions of HCFC-22, and recent data show a growth rate of approximately 4% per year, resulting in an increase in the background atmospheric mole fraction by a factor of 1.7 from 1995 to 2009. Using data on HCFC-22 consumption submitted to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP, as well as existing bottom-up emission estimates, we first create globally-gridded a priori HCFC-22 emissions over the 15 yr since 1995. We then use the three-dimensional chemical transport model, Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers version 4 (MOZART v4, and a Bayesian inverse method to estimate global as well as regional annual emissions. Our inversion indicates

The Implement of a Multi-layer Frozen Soil Scheme into SSiB3 and its Evaluation over Cold Regions

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Q.

2016-12-01

The SSiB3 is a biophysics-based model of land-atmosphere interactions and is designed for global and regional studies. It has three soil layers, three snow layers, as well as one vegetation layer. Soil moisture of the three soil layers, interception water store for the canopy, subsurface soil temperature, ground temperature, canopy temperature and snow water equivalent are all predicted based on the water and energy balance at canopy, soil and snow. SSiB3 substantially enhances the model's capability for cold season studies and produces reasonable results compared with observations. However, frozen soil processes are ignored in the SSiB3 and may have effects on the interannual variability of soil temperature and deep soil memory. A multi-layer comprehensive frozen soil scheme (FSM), which is developed for climate study has been implemented into the SSiB3 to describe soil heat transfer and water flow affected by frozen processed in soil. In the coupled SSiB3-FSM, both liquid water and ice content have been taken into account in the frozen soil hydrologic and thermal property parameterization. The maximum soil layer depth could reach 10 meters thick depending on land conditions. To better evaluate the models' performance, the coupled offline SSiB3-FSM and SSiB3 have been driven from 1948 to 1958 by the Princeton global meteorological data set, respectively. For the 10yrs run, the coupled SSiB3-FSM almost captures the features over different regions, especially cold regions. In order to analysis and compare the differences of SSIB3-FSM and SSIB3 in detail, monthly mean surface temperature for different regions are compared with CAMS data. The statistical results of surface skin temperature show that high latitude regions, Africa, Eastern Australia, and North American monsoon regions have been greatly improved in SSIB3-FSM. For the global statistics, the RMSE of the surface temperature simulated by SSiB3-FSM can be improved about 0.6K compared to SSiB3. In this study

Long-Term Monitoring of Water Dynamics in the Sahel Region Using the Multi-Sar

Science.gov (United States)

Bertram, A.; Wendleder, A.; Schmitt, A.; Huber, M.

2016-06-01

Fresh water is a scarce resource in the West-African Sahel region, seasonally influenced by droughts and floods. Particularly in terms of climate change, the importance of wetlands increases for flora, fauna, human population, agriculture, livestock and fishery. Hence, access to open water is a key factor. Long-term monitoring of water dynamics is of great importance, especially with regard to the spatio-temporal extend of wetlands and drylands. It can predict future trends and facilitate the development of adequate management strategies. Lake Tabalak, a Ramsar wetland of international importance, is one of the most significant ponds in Niger and a refuge for waterbirds. Nevertheless, human population growth increased the pressure on this ecosystem, which is now degrading for all uses. The main objective of the study is a long-term monitoring of the Lake Tabalak's water dynamics to delineate permanent and seasonal water bodies, using weather- and daytime-independent multi-sensor and multi-temporal Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data available for the study area. Data of the following sensors from 1993 until 2016 are used: Sentinel-1A, TerraSARX, ALOS PALSAR-1/2, Envisat ASAR, RADARSAT-1/2, and ERS-1/2. All SAR data are processed with the Multi-SAR-System, unifying the different characteristics of all above mentioned sensors in terms of geometric, radiometric and polarimetric resolution to a consistent format. The polarimetric representation in Kennaugh elements allows fusing single-polarized data acquired by older sensors with multi-polarized data acquired by current sensors. The TANH-normalization guarantees a consistent and therefore comparable description in a closed data range in terms of radiometry. The geometric aspect is solved by projecting all images to an earth-fixed coordinate system correcting the brightness by the help of the incidence angle. The elevation model used in the geocoding step is the novel global model produced by the TanDEM-X satellite

WHO global and regional strategies for health and environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hisashi Ogawa

1996-01-01

This paper describes the WHO global and regional strategies for health and environment and discusses research needs on environmental health to support the implementation of the strategies. Particular emphasis on applied researches which generate information, for decision making, on health effects of development and environmental changes in specific locations

WHO global and regional strategies for health and environment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ogawa, Hisashi [World Health Organization, Manila (Philippines). Regional Office for the Western Pacific

1997-12-31

This paper describes the WHO global and regional strategies for health and environment and discusses research needs on environmental health to support the implementation of the strategies. Particular emphasis on applied researches which generate information, for decision making, on health effects of development and environmental changes in specific locations.

Regional scaling of annual mean precipitation and water availability with global temperature change

Science.gov (United States)

Greve, Peter; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2018-03-01

Changes in regional water availability belong to the most crucial potential impacts of anthropogenic climate change, but are highly uncertain. It is thus of key importance for stakeholders to assess the possible implications of different global temperature thresholds on these quantities. Using a subset of climate model simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), we derive here the sensitivity of regional changes in precipitation and in precipitation minus evapotranspiration to global temperature changes. The simulations span the full range of available emission scenarios, and the sensitivities are derived using a modified pattern scaling approach. The applied approach assumes linear relationships on global temperature changes while thoroughly addressing associated uncertainties via resampling methods. This allows us to assess the full distribution of the simulations in a probabilistic sense. Northern high-latitude regions display robust responses towards wetting, while subtropical regions display a tendency towards drying but with a large range of responses. Even though both internal variability and the scenario choice play an important role in the overall spread of the simulations, the uncertainty stemming from the climate model choice usually accounts for about half of the total uncertainty in most regions. We additionally assess the implications of limiting global mean temperature warming to values below (i) 2 K or (ii) 1.5 K (as stated within the 2015 Paris Agreement). We show that opting for the 1.5 K target might just slightly influence the mean response, but could substantially reduce the risk of experiencing extreme changes in regional water availability.

Transport of Aerosols: Regional and Global Implications for Climate, Weather, and Air Quality

Science.gov (United States)

Chin, Mian; Diehl, Thomas; Yu, Hongbin; Bian, Huisheng; Remer, Lorraine; Kahn, Ralph

2008-01-01

Long-range transport of atmospheric aerosols can have a significant impact on global climate, regional weather, and local air quality. In this study, we use a global model GOCART together with satellite data and ground-based measurements to assess the emission and transport of pollution, dust, biomass burning, and volcanic aerosols and their implications. In particular, we will show the impact of emissions and long-range transport of aerosols from major pollution and dust source regions to (1) the surface air quality, (2) the atmospheric heating rates, and (3) surface radiation change near the source and downwind regions.

Global Multi-Resolution Topography (GMRT) Synthesis - Recent Updates and Developments

Science.gov (United States)

Ferrini, V. L.; Morton, J. J.; Celnick, M.; McLain, K.; Nitsche, F. O.; Carbotte, S. M.; O'hara, S. H.

2017-12-01

The Global Multi-Resolution Topography (GMRT, http://gmrt.marine-geo.org) synthesis is a multi-resolution compilation of elevation data that is maintained in Mercator, South Polar, and North Polar Projections. GMRT consists of four independently curated elevation components: (1) quality controlled multibeam data ( 100m res.), (2) contributed high-resolution gridded bathymetric data (0.5-200 m res.), (3) ocean basemap data ( 500 m res.), and (4) variable resolution land elevation data (to 10-30 m res. in places). Each component is managed and updated as new content becomes available, with two scheduled releases each year. The ocean basemap content for GMRT includes the International Bathymetric Chart of the Arctic Ocean (IBCAO), the International Bathymetric Chart of the Southern Ocean (IBCSO), and the GEBCO 2014. Most curatorial effort for GMRT is focused on the swath bathymetry component, with an emphasis on data from the US Academic Research Fleet. As of July 2017, GMRT includes data processed and curated by the GMRT Team from 974 research cruises, covering over 29 million square kilometers ( 8%) of the seafloor at 100m resolution. The curated swath bathymetry data from GMRT is routinely contributed to international data synthesis efforts including GEBCO and IBCSO. Additional curatorial effort is associated with gridded data contributions from the international community and ensures that these data are well blended in the synthesis. Significant new additions to the gridded data component this year include the recently released data from the search for MH370 (Geoscience Australia) as well as a large high-resolution grid from the Gulf of Mexico derived from 3D seismic data (US Bureau of Ocean Energy Management). Recent developments in functionality include the deployment of a new Polar GMRT MapTool which enables users to export custom grids and map images in polar projection for their selected area of interest at the resolution of their choosing. Available for both

Local communities obstruct global consensus: Naming game on multi-local-world networks

Science.gov (United States)

Lou, Yang; Chen, Guanrong; Fan, Zhengping; Xiang, Luna

2018-02-01

Community structure is essential for social communications, where individuals belonging to the same community are much more actively interacting and communicating with each other than those in different communities within the human society. Naming game, on the other hand, is a social communication model that simulates the process of learning a name of an object within a community of humans, where the individuals can generally reach global consensus asymptotically through iterative pair-wise conversations. The underlying network indicates the relationships among the individuals. In this paper, three typical topologies, namely random-graph, small-world and scale-free networks, are employed, which are embedded with the multi-local-world community structure, to study the naming game. Simulations show that (1) the convergence process to global consensus is getting slower as the community structure becomes more prominent, and eventually might fail; (2) if the inter-community connections are sufficiently dense, neither the number nor the size of the communities affects the convergence process; and (3) for different topologies with the same (or similar) average node-degree, local clustering of individuals obstruct or prohibit global consensus to take place. The results reveal the role of local communities in a global naming game in social network studies.

Global and Regional Ecosystem Modeling: Databases of Model Drivers and Validation Measurements

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Olson, R.J.

2002-03-19

Understanding global-scale ecosystem responses to changing environmental conditions is important both as a scientific question and as the basis for making policy decisions. The confidence in regional models depends on how well the field data used to develop the model represent the region of interest, how well the environmental model driving variables (e.g., vegetation type, climate, and soils associated with a site used to parameterize ecosystem models) represent the region of interest, and how well regional model predictions agree with observed data for the region. To assess the accuracy of global model forecasts of terrestrial carbon cycling, two Ecosystem Model-Data Intercomparison (EMDI) workshops were held (December 1999 and April 2001). The workshops included 17 biogeochemical, satellite-driven, detailed process, and dynamic vegetation global model types. The approach was to run regional or global versions of the models for sites with net primary productivity (NPP) measurements (i.e., not fine-tuned for specific site conditions) and analyze the model-data differences. Extensive worldwide NPP data were assembled with model driver data, including vegetation, climate, and soils data, to perform the intercomparison. This report describes the compilation of NPP estimates for 2,523 sites and 5,164 0.5{sup o}-grid cells under the Global Primary Production Data Initiative (GPPDI) and the results of the EMDI review and outlier analysis that produced a refined set of NPP estimates and model driver data. The EMDI process resulted in 81 Class A sites, 933 Class B sites, and 3,855 Class C cells derived from the original synthesis of NPP measurements and associated driver data. Class A sites represent well-documented study sites that have complete aboveground and below ground NPP measurements. Class B sites represent more numerous ''extensive'' sites with less documentation and site-specific information available. Class C cells represent estimates of

Brazil in Regional and Global Governance: Foreign Policy, Leadership and UNASUR

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gregory Chin

2016-09-01

Full Text Available This article examines the role of Brazil as a source of international governance innovation during the Lula da Silva and early Rousseff presidencies (2003–12. The analysis details some of Brazil’s main contributions to regional and global governance, and how these contributions are rooted in ideational and normative innovation and its imaginative, nonconformist, status quo–altering foreign policy of the period. Although Brazil was not, and is not, a “new actor” per se in global governance, it did take unprecedented and dramatic strides between 2003 and 2012 to redefine the multilateral agenda and reshape institutional arrangements for international cooperation and conflict management in South America. At the global level, Brazil launched new platforms for international cooperation, including with the other BRICS countries of Russia, India, China and South Africa. The regional trends are examined in the case of the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR, and the innovations that Brazil spearheaded and supported in international security and health cooperation. However, Brazil’s contributions gain greater salience as part of the broader processes of global change where international power is becoming increasingly diffused and decentralized.

One color multi-photon ionization of the Gadolinium atom in near UV region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Jin Tae; Yi, Jong Hoon; Lhee, Yong Joo; Lee, Jong Min

1999-01-01

We have investigated the states of the gadolinium atom in near ultra-violet (UV) region (∼410 nm) using single photon excitation using resonance ionization mass spectrometry (RIMS). Around 70 transitions among observed 180 single color multi-photon ionization signals have been assigned. Most of the multi-photon processes of the assigned ion signals are through single photon resonant three photon ionization and through two photon resonant three photon ionization. (author)

Regional Densification of a Global VTEC Model Based on B-Spline Representations

Science.gov (United States)

Erdogan, Eren; Schmidt, Michael; Dettmering, Denise; Goss, Andreas; Seitz, Florian; Börger, Klaus; Brandert, Sylvia; Görres, Barbara; Kersten, Wilhelm F.; Bothmer, Volker; Hinrichs, Johannes; Mrotzek, Niclas

2017-04-01

The project OPTIMAP is a joint initiative of the Bundeswehr GeoInformation Centre (BGIC), the German Space Situational Awareness Centre (GSSAC), the German Geodetic Research Institute of the Technical University Munich (DGFI-TUM) and the Institute for Astrophysics at the University of Göttingen (IAG). The main goal of the project is the development of an operational tool for ionospheric mapping and prediction (OPTIMAP). Two key features of the project are the combination of different satellite observation techniques (GNSS, satellite altimetry, radio occultations and DORIS) and the regional densification as a remedy against problems encountered with the inhomogeneous data distribution. Since the data from space-geoscientific mission which can be used for modeling ionospheric parameters, such as the Vertical Total Electron Content (VTEC) or the electron density, are distributed rather unevenly over the globe at different altitudes, appropriate modeling approaches have to be developed to handle this inhomogeneity. Our approach is based on a two-level strategy. To be more specific, in the first level we compute a global VTEC model with a moderate regional and spectral resolution which will be complemented in the second level by a regional model in a densification area. The latter is a region characterized by a dense data distribution to obtain a high spatial and spectral resolution VTEC product. Additionally, the global representation means a background model for the regional one to avoid edge effects at the boundaries of the densification area. The presented approach based on a global and a regional model part, i.e. the consideration of a regional densification is called the Two-Level VTEC Model (TLVM). The global VTEC model part is based on a series expansion in terms of polynomial B-Splines in latitude direction and trigonometric B-Splines in longitude direction. The additional regional model part is set up by a series expansion in terms of polynomial B-splines for

Global calibration of multi-cameras with non-overlapping fields of view based on photogrammetry and reconfigurable target

Science.gov (United States)

Xia, Renbo; Hu, Maobang; Zhao, Jibin; Chen, Songlin; Chen, Yueling

2018-06-01

Multi-camera vision systems are often needed to achieve large-scale and high-precision measurement because these systems have larger fields of view (FOV) than a single camera. Multiple cameras may have no or narrow overlapping FOVs in many applications, which pose a huge challenge to global calibration. This paper presents a global calibration method for multi-cameras without overlapping FOVs based on photogrammetry technology and a reconfigurable target. Firstly, two planar targets are fixed together and made into a long target according to the distance between the two cameras to be calibrated. The relative positions of the two planar targets can be obtained by photogrammetric methods and used as invariant constraints in global calibration. Then, the reprojection errors of target feature points in the two cameras’ coordinate systems are calculated at the same time and optimized by the Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm to find the optimal solution of the transformation matrix between the two cameras. Finally, all the camera coordinate systems are converted to the reference coordinate system in order to achieve global calibration. Experiments show that the proposed method has the advantages of high accuracy (the RMS error is 0.04 mm) and low cost and is especially suitable for on-site calibration.

Review of the regions and global warming: Impacts and response strategies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schmandt, J.; Clarkson, J.

1992-01-01

This book is a compilation of essays prepared by the winners and finalists of the 1991 competition for the George and Cynthia Mitchell International Prize for Sustainable Development. In that year, the prize was awarded for outstanding papers on regional implications of global climate change. In the introduction that precedes the 19 essays, the editors establish that the volume focuses on mitigative and adaptive strategies that can be carried out regionally. Because the authors of the essays are from a wide range of locations and affiliations, they present a diverse set of perspectives on the global change issue. The essays are simultaneously scholarly and of uniformly high readability, and should be understandable to a general college-level audience

Quantitation of global and regional left ventricular function by MRI

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Geest, RJ; Reiber, JHC; Reiber, JHC; VanDerWall, EE

1998-01-01

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) provides several imaging strategies for assessing left ventricular function. As a three-dimensional imaging technique, all measurements can be performed without relying on geometrical assumptions. Global and regional function parameters can be derived from

The World gas model. A multi-period mixed complementarity model for the global natural gas market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Egging, Ruud; Holz, Franziska; Gabriel, Steven A.

2010-01-01

We provide the description, mathematical formulation and illustrative results of the World Gas Model, a multi-period complementarity model for the global natural gas market with explicit consideration of market power in the upstream market. Market players include producers, traders, pipeline and storage operators, LNG (liquefied natural gas) liquefiers and regasifiers as well as marketers. The model data set contains more than 80 countries and regions and covers 98% of world wide natural gas production and consumption. We also include a detailed representation of cross-border natural gas pipelines and constraints imposed by long-term contracts in the LNG market. The model is calibrated to match production and consumption projections from the PRIMES [EC. European energy and transport: trends to 2030-update 2007. Brussels: European Commission; 2008] and POLES models [EC. World energy technology outlook - 2050 (WETO-H2). Brussels: European Commission; 2006] up to 2030. The results of our numerical simulations illustrate how the supply shares of pipeline and LNG in various regions in the world develop very differently over time. LNG will continue to play a major role in the Asian market, also for new importers like China and India. Europe will expand its pipeline import capacities benefiting from its relative proximity to major gas suppliers. (author)

Countries of the Baltic Region in the Global Culinary Space

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rakhmanov A. B.

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Globalisation is creating a global culinary space where culinary traditions of different countries interact and compete. The author sets out to explore characteristic features of the culinary space of nine Baltic States as part of the global culinary space. The author uses empirical data on the number of restaurants serving different national cuisines in the main cities of the region. The Baltic culinary space incorporates the world’s leading cuisines (Italian, Japanese, Chinese, etc. as well as the local cuisines of the BSR countries. The world’s leading cuisines prove to be more influential in the region than the local ones. Some countries of the Baltic Sea region (Russia, Poland, Sweden, Latvia, and Denmark have culinary sovereignty, since their residents prefer national cuisines. In some other countries of the region (Finland, Estonia, and Lithuania, the public favours the world’s leading cuisines — Italian, Japanese and American — over the local ones. The non-capital Baltic cities of Poland and Germany, as well as St. Petersburg, display a greater sense of culinary patriotism than Warsaw, Berlin, and Moscow respectively. This article attempts to explore the features of the Baltic culinary space. The author considers the environmental and socio- historical factors key determinants of the countries’ cuisines.

Multi-objective optimization for generating a weighted multi-model ensemble

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, H.

2017-12-01

Many studies have demonstrated that multi-model ensembles generally show better skill than each ensemble member. When generating weighted multi-model ensembles, the first step is measuring the performance of individual model simulations using observations. There is a consensus on the assignment of weighting factors based on a single evaluation metric. When considering only one evaluation metric, the weighting factor for each model is proportional to a performance score or inversely proportional to an error for the model. While this conventional approach can provide appropriate combinations of multiple models, the approach confronts a big challenge when there are multiple metrics under consideration. When considering multiple evaluation metrics, it is obvious that a simple averaging of multiple performance scores or model ranks does not address the trade-off problem between conflicting metrics. So far, there seems to be no best method to generate weighted multi-model ensembles based on multiple performance metrics. The current study applies the multi-objective optimization, a mathematical process that provides a set of optimal trade-off solutions based on a range of evaluation metrics, to combining multiple performance metrics for the global climate models and their dynamically downscaled regional climate simulations over North America and generating a weighted multi-model ensemble. NASA satellite data and the Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES) software toolkit are used for assessment of the climate simulations. Overall, the performance of each model differs markedly with strong seasonal dependence. Because of the considerable variability across the climate simulations, it is important to evaluate models systematically and make future projections by assigning optimized weighting factors to the models with relatively good performance. Our results indicate that the optimally weighted multi-model ensemble always shows better performance than an arithmetic

The New Coordinates of Globalization and Regional Integration: Resizing the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marcel Moldoveanu

2017-04-01

Full Text Available The increasingly strong process of interdependence between globalization and regionalization - in the context of the end of the bipolar power at world level - has engendered a new philosophy regarding the evolution of the world, a reconsideration of the strategy of political and diplomatic, economic and also cultural and human relationships. In my opinion, in a multipolar world, that will bring into the first line of international relations new big actors of regional and universal vocation (China, Rusia, Brasil, India, the European Union will play an extensive role in participating at the geostrategic, regional and global equilibrium, through promotion of an „open diplomacy” that will allow – by dialogue and cooperation – the resolving more rapidly and efficiently the great challenges of the beginning of the century and millenium: the reduction of the great development gaps, the regional and global security, in a very solid economic background. A new dimension of the EU enlargement policy at regional scale is represented by the cooperation relations and the attraction into the European circuit of material and spiritual values of the countries in the Central and Eastern Europe. In the context of deepening the interdependence and complementarities at regional and global level, more focus should be put on the viable ways and modalities to intensify the cooperation in the Danube-Black Sea and Euro-Mediterranean geo-economic and strategic areas. The two big geo-strategic regions of the world belong to the same civilization and are subject to similar changes as the other regions of the world, despite some specific features of history and culture. The intensification and diversification of the cooperation at the Central and South-Eastern European level, as well as the Euro-Mediterranean and Danube-Black Sea region, does not represent an alternative to the general objective process of integration into the Euro-Atlantic structures, but a

Assessment of nuclear energy embodied in international trade following a world multi-regional input–output approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cortés-Borda, D.; Guillén-Gosálbez, G.; Jiménez, L.

2015-01-01

Nuclear power can contribute to cover the increasing demand of energy while keeping the carbon emissions within the desired limits. Many countries are reluctant to implement nuclear technologies in their territories, but might still use them through imports of products that embody nuclear energy in their life cycle. This work quantifies the difference between the production-based (territorial) and consumption-based (global) nuclear energy use in the main 40 economies of the world (85% of the world's GDP) through the application of a multi-regional environmentally extended input–output model. The mismatch between the direct (territorial) and total (global) use of nuclear energy varies from −237% to 44% in the top economies. From a consumption-based viewpoint, 10 out of the 40 countries reduced the per-capita use of nuclear energy in the period 1995–2009, and 7 when following a production-based approach. The per-capita nuclear energy use could differ in up to 26.2 GJ/inhabitant·year, depending on whether the assessment is consumption or production based. It was also found that around 3.5% of the world's nuclear energy production is trade-embodied and that this amount is growing along with the global production of nuclear energy. Our findings might help to develop more effective environmental regulations worldwide. - Highlights: • Global and territorial nuclear energy could differ up to 237% in the main economies. • Trade-embodied nuclear energy has increased from 1.4% to 2.5% in 15 years. • Nuclear energy production has rised in tandem with trade-embodied nuclear energy. • Nuclear production decrease in 7 countries does not counteract the increase in others.

Innovation and growth potentials of European regions: A meta-multi-criteria analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nijkamp, P.; Zwetsloot, F.; van der Wal, S.

2010-01-01

Creative regions are nowadays seen as foci of innovation and growth and are hence regarded strategic areas in a fierce-and often global-competition. This paper aims at providing an operational assessment framework for evaluating the innovation potential of competing regions on the basis of

Model calculated global, regional and megacity premature mortality due to air pollution

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Lelieveld

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Air pollution by fine particulate matter (PM2.5 and ozone (O3 has increased strongly with industrialization and urbanization. We estimate the premature mortality rates and the years of human life lost (YLL caused by anthropogenic PM2.5 and O3 in 2005 for epidemiological regions defined by the World Health Organization (WHO. This is based upon high-resolution global model calculations that resolve urban and industrial regions in greater detail compared to previous work. Results indicate that 69% of the global population is exposed to an annual mean anthropogenic PM2.5 concentration of >10 μg m−3 (WHO guideline and 33% to > 25 μg m−3 (EU directive. We applied an epidemiological health impact function and find that especially in large countries with extensive suburban and rural populations, air pollution-induced mortality rates have been underestimated given that previous studies largely focused on the urban environment. We calculate a global respiratory mortality of about 773 thousand/year (YLL ≈ 5.2 million/year, 186 thousand/year by lung cancer (YLL ≈ 1.7 million/year and 2.0 million/year by cardiovascular disease (YLL ≈ 14.3 million/year. The global mean per capita mortality caused by air pollution is about 0.1% yr−1. The highest premature mortality rates are found in the Southeast Asia and Western Pacific regions (about 25% and 46% of the global rate, respectively where more than a dozen of the most highly polluted megacities are located.

Global contrast based salient region detection

KAUST Repository

Cheng, Ming-Ming

2011-08-25

Reliable estimation of visual saliency allows appropriate processing of images without prior knowledge of their contents, and thus remains an important step in many computer vision tasks including image segmentation, object recognition, and adaptive compression. We propose a regional contrast based saliency extraction algorithm, which simultaneously evaluates global contrast differences and spatial coherence. The proposed algorithm is simple, efficient, and yields full resolution saliency maps. Our algorithm consistently outperformed existing saliency detection methods, yielding higher precision and better recall rates, when evaluated using one of the largest publicly available data sets. We also demonstrate how the extracted saliency map can be used to create high quality segmentation masks for subsequent image processing.

Global contrast based salient region detection

KAUST Repository

Cheng, Ming-Ming; Zhang, Guo-Xin; Mitra, Niloy J.; Huang, Xiaolei; Hu, Shi-Min

2011-01-01

Reliable estimation of visual saliency allows appropriate processing of images without prior knowledge of their contents, and thus remains an important step in many computer vision tasks including image segmentation, object recognition, and adaptive compression. We propose a regional contrast based saliency extraction algorithm, which simultaneously evaluates global contrast differences and spatial coherence. The proposed algorithm is simple, efficient, and yields full resolution saliency maps. Our algorithm consistently outperformed existing saliency detection methods, yielding higher precision and better recall rates, when evaluated using one of the largest publicly available data sets. We also demonstrate how the extracted saliency map can be used to create high quality segmentation masks for subsequent image processing.

Data structures supporting multi-region adaptive isogeometric analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Perduta, Anna; Putanowicz, Roman

2018-01-01

Since the first paper published in 2005 Isogeometric Analysis (IGA) has gained strong interest and found applications in many engineering problems. Despite the advancement of the method, there are still far fewer software implementations comparing to Finite Element Method. The paper presents an approach to the development of data structures that can support multi-region IGA with local mesh refinement (patch-based) and possible application in IGA-FEM models. The purpose of this paper is to share original design concepts, that authors have created while developing an IGA package, which other researchers may find beneficial for their own simulation codes.

Integrated regional assessment of global climatic change. Lessons from the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cohen, Stewart J.

1996-01-01

This paper outlines the potential role integrated regional assessments of global climatic change scenarios could play in building better links between science and related policy concerns. The concept is illustrated through description of an ongoing case study from Canada-the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS). As part of the Government of Canada's Green Plan, the Global Warming Science Program includes a study of regional impacts of global warming scenarios in the Mackenzie Basin, located in northwestern Canada. The MBIS is a six-year program focussing on potential climate-induced changes in the land and water resource base, and the implications of four scenarios of global climatic change on land use and economic policies in this region. These policy issues include interjurisdictional water management, sustainability of native lifestyles, economic development opportunities (agriculture, forestry, tourism, etc.), sustainability of ecosystems and infrastructure maintenance. MBIS is due to be completed in 1997. MBIS represents an attempt to address regional impacts by incorporating a 'family of integrators' into the study framework, and by directly involving stakeholders in planning and research activities. The experience in organizing and carrying out this project may provide some lessons for others interested in organizing regional or country studies

Multi-Scale Factor Analysis of High-Dimensional Brain Signals

KAUST Repository

Ting, Chee-Ming

2017-05-18

In this paper, we develop an approach to modeling high-dimensional networks with a large number of nodes arranged in a hierarchical and modular structure. We propose a novel multi-scale factor analysis (MSFA) model which partitions the massive spatio-temporal data defined over the complex networks into a finite set of regional clusters. To achieve further dimension reduction, we represent the signals in each cluster by a small number of latent factors. The correlation matrix for all nodes in the network are approximated by lower-dimensional sub-structures derived from the cluster-specific factors. To estimate regional connectivity between numerous nodes (within each cluster), we apply principal components analysis (PCA) to produce factors which are derived as the optimal reconstruction of the observed signals under the squared loss. Then, we estimate global connectivity (between clusters or sub-networks) based on the factors across regions using the RV-coefficient as the cross-dependence measure. This gives a reliable and computationally efficient multi-scale analysis of both regional and global dependencies of the large networks. The proposed novel approach is applied to estimate brain connectivity networks using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data. Results on resting-state fMRI reveal interesting modular and hierarchical organization of human brain networks during rest.

Characterizing the emission implications of future natural gas production and use in the U.S. and Rocky Mountain region: A scenario-based energy system modeling approach

Science.gov (United States)

McLeod, Jeffrey

The recent increase in U.S. natural gas production made possible through advancements in extraction techniques including hydraulic fracturing has transformed the U.S. energy supply landscape while raising questions regarding the balance of environmental impacts associated with natural gas production and use. Impact areas at issue include emissions of methane and criteria pollutants from natural gas production, alongside changes in emissions from increased use of natural gas in place of coal for electricity generation. In the Rocky Mountain region, these impact areas have been subject to additional scrutiny due to the high level of regional oil and gas production activity and concerns over its links to air quality. Here, the MARKAL (MArket ALlocation) least-cost energy system optimization model in conjunction with the EPA-MARKAL nine-region database has been used to characterize future regional and national emissions of CO 2, CH4, VOC, and NOx attributed to natural gas production and use in several sectors of the economy. The analysis is informed by comparing and contrasting a base case, business-as-usual scenario with scenarios featuring variations in future natural gas supply characteristics, constraints affecting the electricity generation mix, carbon emission reduction strategies and increased demand for natural gas in the transportation sector. Emission trends and their associated sensitivities are identified and contrasted between the Rocky Mountain region and the U.S. as a whole. The modeling results of this study illustrate the resilience of the short term greenhouse gas emission benefits associated with fuel switching from coal to gas in the electric sector, but also call attention to the long term implications of increasing natural gas production and use for emissions of methane and VOCs, especially in the Rocky Mountain region. This analysis can help to inform the broader discussion of the potential environmental impacts of future natural gas production

The benefits of global scaling in multi-criteria decision analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jamie P. Monat

2009-10-01

Full Text Available When there are multiple competing objectives in a decision-making process, Multi-Attribute Choice scoring models are excellent tools, permitting the incorporation of both subjective and objective attributes. However, their accuracy depends upon the subjective techniques used to construct the attribute scales and their concomitant weights. Conventional techniques using local scales tend to overemphasize small differences in attribute measures, which may yield erroneous conclusions. The Range Sensitivity Principle (RSP is often invoked to adjust attribute weights when local scales are used. In practice, however, decision makers often do not follow the prescriptions of the Range Sensitivity Principle and under-adjust the weights, resulting in potentially poor decisions. Examples are discussed as is a proposed solution: the use of global scales instead of local scales.

LONG-TERM MONITORING OF WATER DYNAMICS IN THE SAHEL REGION USING THE MULTI-SAR-SYSTEM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Bertram

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Fresh water is a scarce resource in the West-African Sahel region, seasonally influenced by droughts and floods. Particularly in terms of climate change, the importance of wetlands increases for flora, fauna, human population, agriculture, livestock and fishery. Hence, access to open water is a key factor. Long-term monitoring of water dynamics is of great importance, especially with regard to the spatio-temporal extend of wetlands and drylands. It can predict future trends and facilitate the development of adequate management strategies. Lake Tabalak, a Ramsar wetland of international importance, is one of the most significant ponds in Niger and a refuge for waterbirds. Nevertheless, human population growth increased the pressure on this ecosystem, which is now degrading for all uses. The main objective of the study is a long-term monitoring of the Lake Tabalak’s water dynamics to delineate permanent and seasonal water bodies, using weather- and daytime-independent multi-sensor and multi-temporal Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR data available for the study area. Data of the following sensors from 1993 until 2016 are used: Sentinel-1A, TerraSARX, ALOS PALSAR-1/2, Envisat ASAR, RADARSAT-1/2, and ERS-1/2. All SAR data are processed with the Multi-SAR-System, unifying the different characteristics of all above mentioned sensors in terms of geometric, radiometric and polarimetric resolution to a consistent format. The polarimetric representation in Kennaugh elements allows fusing single-polarized data acquired by older sensors with multi-polarized data acquired by current sensors. The TANH-normalization guarantees a consistent and therefore comparable description in a closed data range in terms of radiometry. The geometric aspect is solved by projecting all images to an earth-fixed coordinate system correcting the brightness by the help of the incidence angle. The elevation model used in the geocoding step is the novel global model produced by the

Constructing Consistent Multiscale Scenarios by Transdisciplinary Processes: the Case of Mountain Regions Facing Global Change

OpenAIRE

Fridolin Simon. Brand; Roman Seidl; Quang Bao. Le; Julia Maria. Brändle; Roland Werner. Scholz

2013-01-01

Alpine regions in Europe, in particular, face demanding local challenges, e.g., the decline in the agriculture and timber industries, and are also prone to global changes, such as in climate, with potentially severe impacts on tourism. We focus on the Visp region in the Upper Valais, Switzerland, and ask how the process of stakeholder involvement in research practice can contribute to a better understanding of the specific challenges and future development of mountainous regions under global ...

Regional climate response collaboratives: Multi-institutional support for climate resilience

Science.gov (United States)

Averyt, Kristen; Derner, Justin D.; Dilling, Lisa; Guerrero, Rafael; Joyce, Linda A.; McNeeley, Shannon; McNie, Elizabeth; Morisette, Jeffrey T.; Ojima, Dennis; O'Malley, Robin; Peck, Dannele; Ray, Andrea J.; Reeves, Matt; Travis, William

2018-01-01

Federal investments by U.S. agencies to enhance climate resilience at regional scales grew over the past decade (2010s). To maximize efficiency and effectiveness in serving multiple sectors and scales, it has become critical to leverage existing agency-specific research, infrastructure, and capacity while avoiding redundancy. We discuss lessons learned from a multi-institutional “regional climate response collaborative” that comprises three different federally-supported climate service entities in the Rocky Mountain west and northern plains region. These lessons include leveraging different strengths of each partner, creating deliberate mechanisms to increase cross-entity communication and joint ownership of projects, and placing a common priority on stakeholder-relevant research and outcomes. We share the conditions that fostered successful collaboration, which can be transferred elsewhere, and suggest mechanisms for overcoming potential barriers. Synergies are essential for producing actionable research that informs climate-related decisions for stakeholders and ultimately enhances climate resilience at regional scales.

Globalization and sovereignty decline: Regionalization problem in Serbia within the actual geopolitical context

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brdar Milan M.

2002-01-01

Full Text Available In the article author is about to maintain that discussion on regionalization asks for contextualisation within the currents of actual geopolitics, on the one hand, and wider process of globalisation and unification, on the other. In keeping with this, author in the first part deals with globalizing integrative processes with special attention played to the problem of nation-state survival. Point of analysis is given in the ambivalence of sovereignty: the very concept becomes outdated on the local level, but by the same token it is fully affirmed on the global level. On the global level we are encountered with revival of the classical concept of sovereignty. Problem of regionalization, in the second part of the article, is reconsidered as a phenomenon that is taking place between those two currents. Author maintains two related theses. First, designs of the regionalization less dependent of the authority of given state for they fall under the jurisdiction of global superpower and becomes dependant of its geostrategic planes and political demands. Second, that main reasons for Democratic Opposition of Serbia to work in favor of regionalization as a synonym for democracy is in lack of solid democratic reform and need to entrench itself in the precomposed structure of social and economic power. In this context one could forsake that we in Serbia are confronted with bright prospects of democracy at the cost of the 'hollowing out' of the state as main guarantee of it.

Constraining the global carbon budget from global to regional scales - The measurement challenge

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Francey, R.J.; Rayner, P.J.; Allison, C.E.

2002-01-01

The Global Carbon Cycle can be modelled by a Bayesian synthesis inversion technique, where measured atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and isotopic compositions are analysed by use of an atmospheric transport model and estimates of regional sources and sinks of atmospheric carbon. The uncertainty associated to carbon flux estimates even on a regional scale can be improved considerably using the inversion technique. In this approach, besides the necessary control on the precision of atmospheric transport models and on the constraints for surface fluxes, an important component is the calibration of atmospheric CO 2 concentration and isotope measurements. The recent improved situation in respect to data comparability is discussed using results of conducted interlaboratory comparison exercises and larger scale calibration programs are proposed for the future to further improve the comparability of analytical data. (author)

Hydrological Utility and Uncertainty of Multi-Satellite Precipitation Products in the Mountainous Region of South Korea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jong Pil Kim

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Satellite-derived precipitation can be a potential source of forcing data for assessing water availability and managing water supply in mountainous regions of East Asia. This study investigates the hydrological utility of satellite-derived precipitation and uncertainties attributed to error propagation of satellite products in hydrological modeling. To this end, four satellite precipitation products (tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM multi-satellite precipitation analysis (TMPA version 6 (TMPAv6 and version 7 (TMPAv7, the global satellite mapping of precipitation (GSMaP, and the climate prediction center (CPC morphing technique (CMORPH were integrated into a physically-based hydrologic model for the mountainous region of South Korea. The satellite precipitation products displayed different levels of accuracy when compared to the intra- and inter-annual variations of ground-gauged precipitation. As compared to the GSMaP and CMORPH products, superior performances were seen when the TMPA products were used within streamflow simulations. Significant dry (negative biases in the GSMaP and CMORPH products led to large underestimates of streamflow during wet-summer seasons. Although the TMPA products displayed a good level of performance for hydrologic modeling, there were some over/underestimates of precipitation by satellites during the winter season that were induced by snow accumulation and snowmelt processes. These differences resulted in streamflow simulation uncertainties during the winter and spring seasons. This study highlights the crucial need to understand hydrological uncertainties from satellite-derived precipitation for improved water resource management and planning in mountainous basins. Furthermore, it is suggested that a reliable snowfall detection algorithm is necessary for the new global precipitation measurement (GPM mission.

Integrated regional changes in arctic climate feedbacks: Implications for the global climate system

Science.gov (United States)

McGuire, A.D.; Chapin, F. S.; Walsh, J.E.; Wirth, C.; ,

2006-01-01

The Arctic is a key part of the global climate system because the net positive energy input to the tropics must ultimately be resolved through substantial energy losses in high-latitude regions. The Arctic influences the global climate system through both positive and negative feedbacks that involve physical, ecological, and human systems of the Arctic. The balance of evidence suggests that positive feedbacks to global warming will likely dominate in the Arctic during the next 50 to 100 years. However, the negative feedbacks associated with changing the freshwater balance of the Arctic Ocean might abruptly launch the planet into another glacial period on longer timescales. In light of uncertainties and the vulnerabilities of the climate system to responses in the Arctic, it is important that we improve our understanding of how integrated regional changes in the Arctic will likely influence the evolution of the global climate system. Copyright ?? 2006 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved.

Dry deposition velocities in the global multi-scale CTM MOCAGE

Science.gov (United States)

Michou, M.; Peuch, V.-H.

2003-04-01

Surface exchanges considered in the MOCAGE multiscale Chemistry and Transport Model (CTM) of Météo-France include dry deposition of gaseous species. To compute realistic time-dependent fluxes at the surface, a 2D interface between MOCAGE and ARPEGE, the French operational numerical weather prediction model, has been developed. Dry deposition of species including ozone, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen-containing compounds, long-lived and short-lived intermediates organic compounds, have been parameterised according to the [Wesely, 1989] scheme. A number of modifications has been made, for instance concerning the deposition against wet surfaces. The formulation of the aerodynamic resistance follows [Louis, 1979], and that of the stomatal resistance, the Interaction Soil Biosphere Atmosphere (ISBA) Météo-France scheme. Resistances are computed using the surface meteorological fields obtained from the analyses or forecasts of ARPEGE. Vegetation fields such as the Leaf Area Index are prescribed with a one-degree spatial resolution at the global scale, and a five-minute resolution over Europe. Calculated dry deposition velocities of ozone, sulfur dioxide and nitric acid have been evaluated against field experimental data at various locations around the world, from tropical regions, rain forest or savannah over Central Africa and Amazonia (EXPRESSO and LBA campaigns), to Mediterranean regions, including forested and crop sites (ESCOMPTE campaign), and temperate areas (deciduous and evergreen forests). Hourly values, monthly and seasonal means have been examined, as well as the impact of the model resolution, from 2 degrees over the globe to 0.08 degrees over regional domains. The contributions to the global budget of ozone of the deposition fluxes in these different regions of the globe will be also presented.

The Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia: Analyzing Regional Land Use Change Effects.

Science.gov (United States)

Michael Keller; Maria Assunção Silva-Dias; Daniel C. Nepstad; Meinrat O. Andreae

2004-01-01

The Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) is a multi-disciplinary, multinational scientific project led by Brazil. LBA researchers seek to understand Amazonia in its global context especially with regard to regional and global climate. Current development activities in Amazonia including deforestation, logging, cattle ranching, and agriculture...

Constructing Consistent Multiscale Scenarios by Transdisciplinary Processes: the Case of Mountain Regions Facing Global Change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fridolin Simon. Brand

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Alpine regions in Europe, in particular, face demanding local challenges, e.g., the decline in the agriculture and timber industries, and are also prone to global changes, such as in climate, with potentially severe impacts on tourism. We focus on the Visp region in the Upper Valais, Switzerland, and ask how the process of stakeholder involvement in research practice can contribute to a better understanding of the specific challenges and future development of mountainous regions under global change. Based on a coupled human-environment system (HES perspective, we carried out a formative scenario analysis to develop a set of scenarios for the future directions of the Visp region. In addition, we linked these regional scenarios to context scenarios developed at the global and Swiss levels via an external consistency analysis. This method allows the coupling of both the scenario building process and the scenarios as such. We used a functional-dynamic approach to theory-practice cooperation, i.e., the involvement of key stakeholders from, for example, tourism, forestry, and administration, differed in type and intensity during the steps of the research process. In our study, we experienced strong problem awareness among the stakeholders concerning the impacts of global change and local challenges. The guiding research question was commonly defined and problem ownership was more or less balanced. We arrived at six multiscale scenarios that open up future trajectories for the Visp region, and present generic strategies to cope with global and local challenges. The results show that local identity, spatial planning, community budget, and demographic development are important steering elements in the region's future development. We suggest that method-guided transdisciplinary processes result in a richer picture and a more systemic understanding, which enable a discussion of critical and surprising issues.

Global Conflicts and the Macro-Regional Modernities: Interview with Marek Hrubec

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Hrubec, Marek; Solík, M.

2015-01-01

Roč. 6, č. 1 (2015), s. 83-98 ISSN 1338-130X Institutional support: RVO:67985955 Keywords : global conflicts * injustice * recognition * macro-regions * modernities * critical theory * intercultural Subject RIV: AJ - Letters, Mass- media , Audiovision

Toward multi-scale simulation of reconnection phenomena in space plasma

Science.gov (United States)

Den, M.; Horiuchi, R.; Usami, S.; Tanaka, T.; Ogawa, T.; Ohtani, H.

2013-12-01

Magnetic reconnection is considered to play an important role in space phenomena such as substorm in the Earth's magnetosphere. It is well known that magnetic reconnection is controlled by microscopic kinetic mechanism. Frozen-in condition is broken due to particle kinetic effects and collisionless reconnection is triggered when current sheet is compressed as thin as ion kinetic scales under the influence of external driving flow. On the other hand configuration of the magnetic field leading to formation of diffusion region is determined in macroscopic scale and topological change after reconnection is also expressed in macroscopic scale. Thus magnetic reconnection is typical multi-scale phenomenon and microscopic and macroscopic physics are strongly coupled. Recently Horiuchi et al. developed an effective resistivity model based on particle-in-cell (PIC) simulation results obtained in study of collisionless driven reconnection and applied to a global magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) simulation of substorm in the Earth's magnetosphere. They showed reproduction of global behavior in substrom such as dipolarization and flux rope formation by global three dimensional MHD simulation. Usami et al. developed multi-hierarchy simulation model, in which macroscopic and microscopic physics are solved self-consistently and simultaneously. Based on the domain decomposition method, this model consists of three parts: a MHD algorithm for macroscopic global dynamics, a PIC algorithm for microscopic kinetic physics, and an interface algorithm to interlock macro and micro hierarchies. They verified the interface algorithm by simulation of plasma injection flow. In their latest work, this model was applied to collisionless reconnection in an open system and magnetic reconnection was successfully found. In this paper, we describe our approach to clarify multi-scale phenomena and report the current status. Our recent study about extension of the MHD domain to global system is presented. We

International conference on the role of the polar regions in global change: Proceedings. Volume 2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Weller, G.; Wilson, C.L.; Severin, B.A.B. [eds.

1991-12-01

The International Conference on the Role of the Polar Regions in Global Change took place on the campus of the University of Alaska Fairbanks on June 11--15, 1990. The goal of the conference was to define and summarize the state of knowledge on the role of the polar regions in global change, and to identify gaps in knowledge. To this purpose experts in a wide variety of relevant disciplines were invited to present papers and hold panel discussions. While there are numerous conferences on global change, this conference dealt specifically with the polar regions which occupy key positions in the global system. These two volumes of conference proceedings include papers on (1) detection and monitoring of change; (2) climate variability and climate forcing; (3) ocean, sea ice, and atmosphere interactions and processes; and (4) effects on biota and biological feedbacks; (5) ice sheet, glacier and permafrost responses and feedbacks, (6) paleoenvironmental studies; and, (7) aerosol and trace gases.

International conference on the role of the polar regions in global change: Proceedings. Volume 1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Weller, G.; Wilson, C.L.; Severin, B.A.B. [eds.

1991-12-01

The International Conference on the Role of the Polar Regions in Global Change took place on the campus of the University of Alaska Fairbanks on June 11--15, 1990. The goal of the conference was to define and summarize the state of knowledge on the role of the polar regions in global change, and to identify gaps in knowledge. To this purpose experts in a wide variety of relevant disciplines were invited to present papers and hold panel discussions. While there are numerous conferences on global change, this conference dealt specifically with polar regions which occupy key positions in the global system. These two volumes of conference proceedings include papers on (1) detection and monitoring of change; (2) climate variability and climate forcing; (3) ocean, sea ice, and atmosphere interactions and processes; (4) effects on biota and biological feedbacks; (5) ice sheet, glacier and permafrost responses and feedbacks; (6) paleoenvironmental studies; and, (7) aerosols and trace gases.

Stochastic identification of temperature effects on the dynamics of a smart composite beam: assessment of multi-model and global model approaches

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hios, J D; Fassois, S D

2009-01-01

The temperature effects on the dynamics of a smart composite beam are experimentally studied via conventional multi-model and novel global model identification approaches. The multi-model approaches are based on non-parametric and parametric VARX representations, whereas the global model approaches are based on novel constant coefficient pooled (CCP) and functionally pooled (FP) VARX parametric representations. The analysis indicates that the obtained multi-model and global model representations are in rough overall agreement. Nevertheless, the latter simultaneously use all available data records offering more compact descriptions of the dynamics, improved numerical robustness and estimation accuracy, which is reflected in significantly reduced modal parameter uncertainties. Although the CCP-VARX representations provide only 'averaged' descriptions of the structural dynamics over temperature, their FP-VARX counterparts allow for the explicit, analytical modeling of temperature dependence exhibiting a 'smooth' deterministic dependence of the dynamics on temperature which is compatible with the physics of the problem. In accordance with previous studies, the obtained natural frequencies decrease with temperature in a weakly nonlinear or approximately linear fashion. The damping factors are less affected, although their dependence on temperature may be of a potentially more complex nature

Long-term global nuclear energy and fuel cycle strategies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krakowski, R.A.

1997-01-01

The Global Nuclear Vision Project is examining, using scenario building techniques, a range of long-term nuclear energy futures. The exploration and assessment of optimal nuclear fuel-cycle and material strategies is an essential element of the study. To this end, an established global E 3 (energy/economics/environmental) model has been adopted and modified with a simplified, but comprehensive and multi-regional, nuclear energy module. Consistent nuclear energy scenarios are constructed using this multi-regional E 3 model, wherein future demands for nuclear power are projected in price competition with other energy sources under a wide range of long-term demographic (population, workforce size and productivity), economic (price-, population-, and income-determined demand for energy services, price- and population-modified GNP, resource depletion, world-market fossil energy prices), policy (taxes, tariffs, sanctions), and top-level technological (energy intensity and end-use efficiency improvements) drivers. Using the framework provided by the global E 3 model, the impacts of both external and internal drivers are investigated. The ability to connect external and internal drivers through this modeling framework allows the study of impacts and tradeoffs between fossil- versus nuclear-fuel burning, that includes interactions between cost, environmental, proliferation, resource, and policy issues

Long-term global nuclear energy and fuel cycle strategies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Krakowski, R.A. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States). Technology and Safety Assessment Div.

1997-09-24

The Global Nuclear Vision Project is examining, using scenario building techniques, a range of long-term nuclear energy futures. The exploration and assessment of optimal nuclear fuel-cycle and material strategies is an essential element of the study. To this end, an established global E{sup 3} (energy/economics/environmental) model has been adopted and modified with a simplified, but comprehensive and multi-regional, nuclear energy module. Consistent nuclear energy scenarios are constructed using this multi-regional E{sup 3} model, wherein future demands for nuclear power are projected in price competition with other energy sources under a wide range of long-term demographic (population, workforce size and productivity), economic (price-, population-, and income-determined demand for energy services, price- and population-modified GNP, resource depletion, world-market fossil energy prices), policy (taxes, tariffs, sanctions), and top-level technological (energy intensity and end-use efficiency improvements) drivers. Using the framework provided by the global E{sup 3} model, the impacts of both external and internal drivers are investigated. The ability to connect external and internal drivers through this modeling framework allows the study of impacts and tradeoffs between fossil- versus nuclear-fuel burning, that includes interactions between cost, environmental, proliferation, resource, and policy issues.

Primary sources of selected POPs: regional and global scale emission inventories

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Breivik, Knut; Alcock, Ruth; Li Yifan; Bailey, Robert E.; Fiedler, Heidelore; Pacyna, Jozef M

2004-03-01

During the last decade, a number of studies have been devoted to the sources and emissions of Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) at regional and global scales. While significant improvements in knowledge have been achieved for some pesticides, the quantitative understanding of the emission processes and emission patterns for 'non-pesticide' POPs are still considered limited. The key issues remaining for the non-pesticide POPs are in part determined by their general source classification. For industrial chemicals, such as the polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), there is considerable uncertainty with respect to the relative importance of atmospheric emissions from various source categories. For PCBs, temperature is discussed as a potential key factor influencing atmospheric emission levels and patterns. When it comes to the unintentional by-products of combustion and industrial processes (PCDD/Fs), there is still a large uncertainty with respect to the relative contribution of emissions from unregulated sources such as backyard barrel burning that requires further consideration and characterisation. For hexachlorobenzene (HCB), the relative importance of primary and secondary atmospheric emissions in controlling current atmospheric concentrations remains one of the key uncertainties. While these and other issues may remain unresolved, knowledge concerning the emissions of POPs is a prerequisite for any attempt to understand and predict the distribution and fate of these chemicals on a regional and global scale as well as to efficiently minimise future environmental burdens. - Knowledge of primary emissions is a prerequisite for understanding and predicting POPs on a regional/global scale.

Primary sources of selected POPs: regional and global scale emission inventories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Breivik, Knut; Alcock, Ruth; Li Yifan; Bailey, Robert E.; Fiedler, Heidelore; Pacyna, Jozef M.

2004-01-01

During the last decade, a number of studies have been devoted to the sources and emissions of Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) at regional and global scales. While significant improvements in knowledge have been achieved for some pesticides, the quantitative understanding of the emission processes and emission patterns for 'non-pesticide' POPs are still considered limited. The key issues remaining for the non-pesticide POPs are in part determined by their general source classification. For industrial chemicals, such as the polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), there is considerable uncertainty with respect to the relative importance of atmospheric emissions from various source categories. For PCBs, temperature is discussed as a potential key factor influencing atmospheric emission levels and patterns. When it comes to the unintentional by-products of combustion and industrial processes (PCDD/Fs), there is still a large uncertainty with respect to the relative contribution of emissions from unregulated sources such as backyard barrel burning that requires further consideration and characterisation. For hexachlorobenzene (HCB), the relative importance of primary and secondary atmospheric emissions in controlling current atmospheric concentrations remains one of the key uncertainties. While these and other issues may remain unresolved, knowledge concerning the emissions of POPs is a prerequisite for any attempt to understand and predict the distribution and fate of these chemicals on a regional and global scale as well as to efficiently minimise future environmental burdens. - Knowledge of primary emissions is a prerequisite for understanding and predicting POPs on a regional/global scale

Global, Regional, and National Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases for 10 Causes, 1990 to 2015

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Roth, Gregory A; Johnson, Catherine; Abajobir, Amanuel

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: The burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) remains unclear in many regions of the world. OBJECTIVES: The GBD (Global Burden of Disease) 2015 study integrated data on disease incidence, prevalence, and mortality to produce consistent, up-to-date estimates for cardiovascular burden......-income countries. Ischemic heart disease was the leading cause of CVD health lost globally, as well as in each world region, followed by stroke. As SDI increased beyond 0.25, the highest CVD mortality shifted from women to men. CVD mortality decreased sharply for both sexes in countries with an SDI >0...... be used to guide policymakers who are focused on reducing the overall burden of noncommunicable disease and achieving specific global health targets for CVD....

Assessing Hydrological and Energy Budgets in Amazonia through Regional Downscaling, and Comparisons with Global Reanalysis Products

Science.gov (United States)

Nunes, A.; Ivanov, V. Y.

2014-12-01

Although current global reanalyses provide reasonably accurate large-scale features of the atmosphere, systematic errors are still found in the hydrological and energy budgets of such products. In the tropics, precipitation is particularly challenging to model, which is also adversely affected by the scarcity of hydrometeorological datasets in the region. With the goal of producing downscaled analyses that are appropriate for a climate assessment at regional scales, a regional spectral model has used a combination of precipitation assimilation with scale-selective bias correction. The latter is similar to the spectral nudging technique, which prevents the departure of the regional model's internal states from the large-scale forcing. The target area in this study is the Amazon region, where large errors are detected in reanalysis precipitation. To generate the downscaled analysis, the regional climate model used NCEP/DOE R2 global reanalysis as the initial and lateral boundary conditions, and assimilated NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) MORPHed precipitation (CMORPH), available at 0.25-degree resolution, every 3 hours. The regional model's precipitation was successfully brought closer to the observations, in comparison to the NCEP global reanalysis products, as a result of the impact of a precipitation assimilation scheme on cumulus-convection parameterization, and improved boundary forcing achieved through a new version of scale-selective bias correction. Water and energy budget terms were also evaluated against global reanalyses and other datasets.

Regional-Scale Forcing and Feedbacks from Alternative Scenarios of Global-Scale Land Use Change

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, A. D.; Chini, L. P.; Collins, W.; Janetos, A. C.; Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Thomson, A. M.; Torn, M. S.

2011-12-01

Future patterns of land use change depend critically on the degree to which terrestrial carbon management strategies, such as biological carbon sequestration and biofuels, are utilized in order to mitigate global climate change. Furthermore, land use change associated with terrestrial carbon management induces biogeophysical changes to surface energy budgets that perturb climate at regional and possibly global scales, activating different feedback processes depending on the nature and location of the land use change. As a first step in a broader effort to create an integrated earth system model, we examine two scenarios of future anthropogenic activity generated by the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) within the full-coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM). Each scenario stabilizes radiative forcing from greenhouse gases and aerosols at 4.5 W/m^2. In the first, stabilization is achieved through a universal carbon tax that values terrestrial carbon equally with fossil carbon, leading to modest afforestation globally and low biofuel utilization. In the second scenario, stabilization is achieved with a tax on fossil fuel and industrial carbon alone. In this case, biofuel utilization increases dramatically and crop area expands to claim approximately 50% of forest cover globally. By design, these scenarios exhibit identical climate forcing from atmospheric constituents. Thus, differences among them can be attributed to the biogeophysical effects of land use change. In addition, we utilize offline radiative transfer and offline land model simulations to identify forcing and feedback mechanisms operating in different regions. We find that boreal deforestation has a strong climatic signature due to significant albedo change coupled with a regional-scale water vapor feedback. Tropical deforestation, on the other hand, has more subtle effects on climate. Globally, the two scenarios yield warming trends over the 21st century that differ by 0.5 degrees Celsius. This

ICT Impact on Competencies and Innovations: Regional Applicability of Global Indicators

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antanas Buracas

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Paper deals with the multiple criteria assessment methodology applied for global evaluations of ICT impact on competency, talent potential and innovation, and aims to conclude how suitable it is for the regional assessment of education quality a/o processes determining skills in knowledge economy. Below the attention is given to interdependencies of education and knowledge components with the factors characterizing the ICT impact within multiple criteria evaluations for regional cases (Baltic States, also the factors used for international ratings of academic institutions in Lithuania. The task is to evaluate how much some indicators used by experts for global evaluations and popular ratings of universities could be applied for evaluations of the competencies determining competitive innovativeness of the social activity of countries under review. Also for detailing the intersectorial distributing of limited resources for more rational development of labour & vocational skills. Most of the conclusions emphasize that substantial part of ICT determinants applied for evaluations of global competitiveness help to rank the countries or academic institutions for investment solutions but do not detail the mechanisms determining the professional competencies and innovativeness of business at necessary level.

Introducing technology learning for energy technologies in a national CGE model through soft links to global and national energy models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martinsen, Thomas

2011-01-01

This paper describes a method to model the influence by global policy scenarios, particularly spillover of technology learning, on the energy service demand of the non-energy sectors of the national economy. It is exemplified by Norway. Spillover is obtained from the technology-rich global Energy Technology Perspective model operated by the International Energy Agency. It is provided to a national hybrid model where a national bottom-up Markal model carries forward spillover into a national top-down CGE model at a disaggregated demand category level. Spillover of technology learning from the global energy technology market will reduce national generation costs of energy carriers. This may in turn increase demand in the non-energy sectors of the economy because of the rebound effect. The influence of spillover on the Norwegian economy is most pronounced for the production level of industrial chemicals and for the demand for electricity for residential energy services. The influence is modest, however, because all existing electricity generating capacity is hydroelectric and thus compatible with the low emission policy scenario. In countries where most of the existing generating capacity must be replaced by nascent energy technologies or carbon captured and storage the influence on demand is expected to be more significant. - Highlights: → Spillover of global technology learning may be forwarded into a macroeconomic model. → The national electricity price differs significantly between the different global scenarios. → Soft-linking global and national models facilitate transparency in the technology learning effect chain.

A new model and simple algorithms for multi-label mumford-shah problems

KAUST Repository

Hong, Byungwoo

2013-06-01

In this work, we address the multi-label Mumford-Shah problem, i.e., the problem of jointly estimating a partitioning of the domain of the image, and functions defined within regions of the partition. We create algorithms that are efficient, robust to undesirable local minima, and are easy-to-implement. Our algorithms are formulated by slightly modifying the underlying statistical model from which the multi-label Mumford-Shah functional is derived. The advantage of this statistical model is that the underlying variables: the labels and the functions are less coupled than in the original formulation, and the labels can be computed from the functions with more global updates. The resulting algorithms can be tuned to the desired level of locality of the solution: from fully global updates to more local updates. We demonstrate our algorithm on two applications: joint multi-label segmentation and denoising, and joint multi-label motion segmentation and flow estimation. We compare to the state-of-the-art in multi-label Mumford-Shah problems and show that we achieve more promising results. © 2013 IEEE.

Mapping Priorities to Focus Cropland Mapping Activities: Fitness Assessment of Existing Global, Regional and National Cropland Maps

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

François Waldner

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Timely and accurate information on the global cropland extent is critical for applications in the fields of food security, agricultural monitoring, water management, land-use change modeling and Earth system modeling. On the one hand, it gives detailed location information on where to analyze satellite image time series to assess crop condition. On the other hand, it isolates the agriculture component to focus food security monitoring on agriculture and to assess the potential impacts of climate change on agricultural lands. The cropland class is often poorly captured in global land cover products due to its dynamic nature and the large variety of agro-systems. The overall objective was to evaluate the current availability of cropland datasets in order to propose a strategic planning and effort distribution for future cropland mapping activities and, therefore, to maximize their impact. Following a very comprehensive identification and collection of national to global land cover maps, a multi-criteria analysis was designed at the country level to identify the priority areas for cropland mapping. As a result, the analysis highlighted priority regions, such as Western Africa, Ethiopia, Madagascar and Southeast Asia, for the remote sensing community to focus its efforts. A Unified Cropland Layer at 250 m for the year 2014 was produced combining the fittest products. It was assessed using global validation datasets and yields an overall accuracy ranging from 82%–94%. Masking cropland areas with a global forest map reduced the commission errors from 46% down to 26%. Compared to the GLC-Share and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis-International Food Policy Research Institute (IIASA-IFPRI cropland maps, significant spatial disagreements were found, which might be attributed to discrepancies in the cropland definition. This advocates for a shared definition of cropland, as well as global validation datasets relevant for the

Simulating secondary organic aerosol in a regional air quality model using the statistical oxidation model - Part 1: Assessing the influence of constrained multi-generational ageing

Science.gov (United States)

Jathar, S. H.; Cappa, C. D.; Wexler, A. S.; Seinfeld, J. H.; Kleeman, M. J.

2016-02-01

Multi-generational oxidation of volatile organic compound (VOC) oxidation products can significantly alter the mass, chemical composition and properties of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) compared to calculations that consider only the first few generations of oxidation reactions. However, the most commonly used state-of-the-science schemes in 3-D regional or global models that account for multi-generational oxidation (1) consider only functionalization reactions but do not consider fragmentation reactions, (2) have not been constrained to experimental data and (3) are added on top of existing parameterizations. The incomplete description of multi-generational oxidation in these models has the potential to bias source apportionment and control calculations for SOA. In this work, we used the statistical oxidation model (SOM) of Cappa and Wilson (2012), constrained by experimental laboratory chamber data, to evaluate the regional implications of multi-generational oxidation considering both functionalization and fragmentation reactions. SOM was implemented into the regional University of California at Davis / California Institute of Technology (UCD/CIT) air quality model and applied to air quality episodes in California and the eastern USA. The mass, composition and properties of SOA predicted using SOM were compared to SOA predictions generated by a traditional two-product model to fully investigate the impact of explicit and self-consistent accounting of multi-generational oxidation.Results show that SOA mass concentrations predicted by the UCD/CIT-SOM model are very similar to those predicted by a two-product model when both models use parameters that are derived from the same chamber data. Since the two-product model does not explicitly resolve multi-generational oxidation reactions, this finding suggests that the chamber data used to parameterize the models captures the majority of the SOA mass formation from multi-generational oxidation under the conditions

Global alcohol exposure estimates by country, territory and region for 2005--a contribution to the Comparative Risk Assessment for the 2010 Global Burden of Disease Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Shield, Kevin D; Rylett, Margaret; Gmel, Gerhard; Gmel, Gerrit; Kehoe-Chan, Tara A K; Rehm, Jürgen

2013-05-01

This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of life-time abstainers, former drinkers and current drinkers, adult per-capita consumption of alcohol and pattern of drinking scores, by country and Global Burden of Disease region for 2005, and to forecast these indicators for 2010. Statistical modelling based on survey data and routine statistics. A total of 241 countries and territories. Per-capita consumption data were obtained with the help of the World Health Organization's Global Information System on Alcohol and Health. Drinking status data were obtained from Gender, Alcohol and Culture: An International Study, the STEPwise approach to Surveillance study, the World Health Survey/Multi-Country Study and other surveys. Consumption and drinking status data were triangulated to estimate alcohol consumption across multiple categories. In 2005 adult per-capita annual consumption of alcohol was 6.1 litres, with 1.7 litres stemming from unrecorded consumption; 17.1 litres of alcohol were consumed per drinker, 45.8% of all adults were life-time abstainers, 13.6% were former drinkers and 40.6% were current drinkers. Life-time abstention was most prevalent in North Africa/Middle East and South Asia. Eastern Europe and Southern sub-Saharan Africa had the most detrimental pattern of drinking scores, while drinkers in Europe (Eastern and Central) and sub-Saharan Africa (Southern and West) consumed the most alcohol. Just over 40% of the world's adult population consumes alcohol and the average consumption per drinker is 17.1 litres per year. However, the prevalence of abstention, level of alcohol consumption and patterns of drinking vary widely across regions of the world. © 2013 The Authors, Addiction © 2013 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Global conservation model for a mushy region over a moving substrate

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Kyselica, Juraj; Šimkanin, Ján

2018-01-01

Roč. 276, March (2018), s. 60-67 ISSN 0031-9201 Institutional support: RVO:67985530 Keywords : solidification * binary alloy * mushy region * global conservation * boundary-layer flow Subject RIV: DE - Earth Magnetism, Geodesy, Geography Impact factor: 2.075, year: 2016

A Multi-Region Model of Economic Growth with Human Capital and Negative Externalities in Innovation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Batabyal, A.; Nijkamp, P.

2013-01-01

We use a multi-region model and provide the first theoretical analysis of the effects of human capital use and a particular kind of innovative activity on economic growth. In each of the N heterogeneous regions in our model, consumers have constant relative risk aversion preferences, there are

Conflicts in Coalitions: A Stability Analysis of Robust Multi-City Regional Water Supply Portfolios

Science.gov (United States)

Gold, D.; Trindade, B. C.; Reed, P. M.; Characklis, G. W.

2017-12-01

Regional cooperation among water utilities can improve the robustness of urban water supply portfolios to deeply uncertain future conditions such as those caused by climate change or population growth. Coordination mechanisms such as water transfers, coordinated demand management, and shared infrastructure, can improve the efficiency of resource allocation and delay the need for new infrastructure investments. Regionalization does however come at a cost. Regionally coordinated water supply plans may be vulnerable to any emerging instabilities in the regional coalition. If one or more regional actors does not cooperate or follow the required regional actions in a time of crisis, the overall system performance may degrade. Furthermore, when crafting regional water supply portfolios, decision makers must choose a framework for measuring the performance of regional policies based on the evaluation of the objective values for each individual actor. Regional evaluations may inherently favor one actor's interests over those of another. This work focuses on four interconnected water utilities in the Research Triangle region of North Carolina for which robust regional water supply portfolios have previously been designed using multi-objective optimization to maximize the robustness of the worst performing utility across several objectives. This study 1) examines the sensitivity of portfolio performance to deviations from prescribed actions by individual utilities, 2) quantifies the implications of the regional formulation used to evaluate robustness for the portfolio performance of each individual utility and 3) elucidates the inherent regional tensions and conflicts that exist between utilities under this regionalization scheme through visual diagnostics of the system under simulated drought scenarios. Results of this analysis will help inform the creation of future regional water supply portfolios and provide insight into the nature of multi-actor water supply systems.

Modeling the Impacts of Global Climate and Regional Land Use Change on Regional Climate, Air Quality and Public Health in the New York Metropolitan Region

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenthal, J. E.; Knowlton, K. M.; Kinney, P. L.

2002-12-01

There is an imminent need to downscale the global climate models used by international consortiums like the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) to predict the future regional impacts of climate change. To meet this need, a "place-based" climate model that makes specific regional projections about future environmental conditions local inhabitants could face is being created by the Mailman School of Public Health at Columbia University, in collaboration with other researchers and universities, for New York City and the 31 surrounding counties. This presentation describes the design and initial results of this modeling study, aimed at simulating the effects of global climate change and regional land use change on climate and air quality over the northeastern United States in order to project the associated public health impacts in the region. Heat waves and elevated concentrations of ozone and fine particles are significant current public health stressors in the New York metropolitan area. The New York Climate and Health Project is linking human dimension and natural sciences models to assess the potential for future public health impacts from heat stress and air quality, and yield improved tools for assessing climate change impacts. The model will be applied to the NY metropolitan east coast region. The following questions will be addressed: 1. What changes in the frequency and severity of extreme heat events are likely to occur over the next 80 years due to a range of possible scenarios of land use and land cover (LU/LC) and climate change in the region? 2. How might the frequency and severity of episodic concentrations of ozone (O3) and airborne particulate matter smaller than 2.5 æm in diameter (PM2.5) change over the next 80 years due to a range of possible scenarios of land use and climate change in the metropolitan region? 3. What is the range of possible human health impacts of these changes in the region? 4. How might projected future human

Determination of Vertical Datum Offset between the Regional and the Global Height Datum

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

LI Jiancheng

2017-10-01

Full Text Available The unification of the global height datum is a key problem to be solved for geodesy after the unification of global geodetic coordination system and three-dimension spatial datum, and the basis of global spatial information sharing and exchange. In this paper, the theoretical and practical problems of vertical datum offset between the regional height datum and the global height datum are studied. Based on the classical theory of the height system in physical geodesy, the definition of the height datum vertical offset is given, and the rigorous formulas for calculating the vertical offset are derived. The formulas can be used to deduce the three methods of the height datum vertical offset determination. On that basis, the influences of different reference system and reference ellipsoid parameters on the calculation of the vertical offset are analyzed. The results show that the reference system and the ellipsoid parameter conversion are very necessary. At the same time, the height anomaly differences method needs to consider the degree zero correction caused by the inconsistency between gravity potential of the global height datum and the one computed by the model. Based on potential difference approach and the height anomaly difference method, the vertical offset between the China 1985 national height datum and the global height datum corresponding to the normal gravity potential U0 of GRS80, WGS-84 and CGCS2000 reference ellipsoidal from the 152 GPS/leveling points near the origin of Qingdao height origin and the EGM2008, EIGEN-6C4 and SGG-UGM-1 model. The regional datum is 23.1 cm lower than the global datum based on EIGEN-6C4 and WGS-84. When the Gauss-Listing geoid (mean sea surface is selected as the global height datum, the China 1985 national height datum is 21.0 cm higher than the global height datum. The results also show that there are still large differences among the accuracies of the current gravity field models on these GPS

Scenarios for regional passenger car fleets and their CO2 emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meyer, Ina; Kaniovski, Serguei; Scheffran, Jürgen

2012-01-01

Passenger car traffic is among the main contributors to anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, which are responsible for climate change. It is also an important indicator used to forecast these emissions in integrated climate-economic models. This paper develops scenarios for global passenger car stock until 2050. The study adopts a global regionalized approach, encompassing 11 world regions. Car stock projections are obtained using a multi-model approach, which includes a consumer demand model based on utility maximization, a non-linear Gompertz model and a panel estimate of the income elasticity of demand for cars. The main hypothesis underlying these projections is that preferences for purchasing cars are similar across cultures and nations and that the demand for cars is largely determined by disposable income. We apply scenarios for the average traffic volume and fuel efficiency developed in previous work together with the average carbon content of fuels to obtain the CO 2 emissions. - Research highlights: ► This study develops scenarios for global passenger car stock, CO 2 emissions and fuel efficiency until 2050. ► In a global regionalized approach car stock projections are obtained using a multi-model approach. ► Compared are utility maximization, a non-linear Gompertz model and a panel estimate. ► Preferences for purchasing cars are similar across cultures and nations. ► The demand for cars is largely determined by disposable income.

Global Natural Disaster Risk Hotspots: Transition to a Regional Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Lerner-Lam, A.; Chen, R.; Dilley, M.

2005-12-01

The "Hotspots Project" is a collaborative study of the global distribution and occurrence of multiple natural hazards and the associated exposures of populations and their economic output. In this study we assess the global risks of two disaster-related outcomes: mortality and economic losses. We estimate risk levels by combining hazard exposure with historical vulnerability for two indicators of elements at risk-gridded population and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per unit area - for six major natural hazards: earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides, floods, drought, and cyclones. By calculating relative risks for each grid cell rather than for countries as a whole, we are able to estimate risk levels at sub-national scales. These can then be used to estimate aggregate relative multiple hazard risk at regional and national scales. Mortality-related risks are assessed on a 2.5' x 2.5' latitude-longitude grid of global population (GPW Version 3). Economic risks are assessed at the same resolution for gridded GDP per unit area, using World Bank estimates of GDP based on purchasing power parity. Global hazard data were compiled from multiple sources. The project collaborated directly with UNDP and UNEP, the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) at Columbia, and the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI) in the creation of data sets for several hazards for which global data sets did not previously exist. Drought, flood and volcano hazards are characterized in terms of event frequency, storms by frequency and severity, earthquakes by frequency and ground acceleration exceedance probability, and landslides by an index derived from probability of occurrence. The global analysis undertaken in this project is clearly limited by issues of scale as well as by the availability and quality of data. For some hazards, there exist only 15- to 25-year global records with relatively crude spatial information. Data on historical disaster losses, and particularly on

Analysing global value chains using input-output economics : proceed with care

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nomaler, Z.O.; Verspagen, B.

2014-01-01

Input-output economics has become a popular tool to analyse the international fragmentation of value chains, especially now that several multi-regional tables that cover large parts of the global economy have become available. It has been argued that these tables, when analysed with the help of the

Analysing global value chains using input-output economics: Proceed with care

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nomaler, Ö.; Verspagen, B.

2014-01-01

Input-output economics has become a popular tool to analyse the international fragmentation of value chains, especially now that several multi-regional tables that cover large parts of the global economy have become available. It has been argued that these tables, when analysed with the help of the

A decision aid tool for equity issues analysis in emission permit allocations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vaillancourt, K.; Waaub, J.P.

2004-01-01

The general intention of global climate agreements is to stabilize greenhouse gases (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere which contribute to climate change. Climate models indicate that the global average temperature will increase by about 1.4 to 5.8 degrees C by 2100 compared to the 1990 level. This study assumed the participation of all countries, including developing countries, to achieve a global GHG stabilization target. It examined international cooperation mechanisms such as permit trading to achieve global economic efficiency. The study proposed a decision aid tool that provides relevant information on various equitable permit allocation schemes. A dynamic multicriterion model was presented to share the global quantity of permits among 15 regions. Multiple definitions of equity were considered. A realistic simulation of the World-MARKAL energy model was conducted to demonstrate the potential application of the scheme in international negotiations. The goal was to propose a range of permit allocations for each country in order to restrict the number of possibilities and guide negotiations. A model of the global reduction scenario makes it possible to determine cost effective solutions and to calculate reduction costs. Equity issues related to permit allocations were also addressed along with permit allocations and net reduction costs for each region. 45 refs., 5 tabs., 2 figs., 1 appendix

Rebuilding the Arab Economies: New Regional and Global Strategies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laura - Ramona BENCHEA

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The Arab countries are facing one of their most difficult periods of the modern history. The popular uprisings which broke out at the beginning of 2011 in Tunisia and then spread to Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Jordan, Bahrain and Syria, reflect profound economic and social hardships, but also major uncertainties regarding the political perspectives of these countries. The political transition carried out by several Arab countries could represent an incentive for profound economic reorganization and structural change all over the region. The aim of this paper is to assess the structural economic challenges the Arab countries had been confronted with over many decades and to identify possible regional and global strategies for economic development.

Multi-temporal Soil Erosion Modelling over the Mt Kenya Region with Multi-Sensor Earth Observation Data

Science.gov (United States)

Symeonakis, Elias; Higginbottom, Thomas

2015-04-01

Accelerated soil erosion is the principal cause of soil degradation across the world. In Africa, it is seen as a serious problem creating negative impacts on agricultural production, infrastructure and water quality. Regarding the Mt Kenya region, specifically, soil erosion is a serious threat mainly due to unplanned and unsustainable practices linked to tourism, agriculture and rapid population growth. The soil types roughly correspond with different altitudinal zones and are generally very fertile due to their volcanic origin. Some of them have been created by eroding glaciers while others are due to millions of years of fluvial erosion. The soils on the mountain are easily eroded once exposed: when vegetation is removed, the soil quickly erodes down to bedrock by either animals or humans, as tourists erode paths and local people clear large swaths of forested land for agriculture, mostly illegally. It is imperative, therefore, that a soil erosion monitoring system for the Mt Kenya region is in place in order to understand the magnitude of, and be able to respond to, the increasing number of demands on this renewable resource. In this paper, we employ a simple regional-scale soil erosion modelling framework based on the Thornes model and suggest an operational methodology for quantifying and monitoring water runoff and soil erosion using multi-sensor and multi-temporal remote sensing data in a GIS framework. We compare the estimates of this study with general data on the severity of soil erosion over Kenya and with measured rates of soil loss at different locations over the area of study. The results show that the measured and estimated rates of erosion are generally similar and within the same order of magnitude. They also show that, over the last years, erosion rates are increasing in large parts of the region at an alarming rate, and that mitigation measures are needed to reverse the negative effects of uncontrolled socio-economic practices.

A possible constraint on regional precipitation intensity changes under global warming

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gutowski, William J.; Kozak, K. A.; Arritt, R. W.

2007-01-01

Changes in daily precipitation versus intensity under a global warming scenario in two regional climate simulations of the United States show a well-recognized feature of more intense precipitation. More important, by resolving the precipitation intensity spectrum, the changes show a relatively...

Changes in yields and their variability at different levels of global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Childers, Katelin

2015-04-01

An assessment of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming is crucial to inform the political discussion about mitigation targets as well as for the inclusion of climate change impacts in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) that generally only provide global mean temperature change as an indicator of climate change. While there is a well-established framework for the scalability of regional temperature and precipitation changes with global mean temperature change we provide an assessment of the extent to which impacts such as crop yield changes can also be described in terms of global mean temperature changes without accounting for the specific underlying emissions scenario. Based on multi-crop-model simulations of the four major cereal crops (maize, rice, soy, and wheat) on a 0.5 x 0.5 degree global grid generated within ISI-MIP, we show the average spatial patterns of projected crop yield changes at one half degree warming steps. We find that emissions scenario dependence is a minor component of the overall variance of projected yield changes at different levels of global warming. Furthermore, scenario dependence can be reduced by accounting for the direct effects of CO2 fertilization in each global climate model (GCM)/impact model combination through an inclusion of the global atmospheric CO2 concentration as a second predictor. The choice of GCM output used to force the crop model simulations accounts for a slightly larger portion of the total yield variance, but the greatest contributor to variance in both global and regional crop yields and at all levels of warming, is the inter-crop-model spread. The unique multi impact model ensemble available with ISI-MIP data also indicates that the overall variability of crop yields is projected to increase in conjunction with increasing global mean temperature. This result is consistent throughout the ensemble of impact models and across many world regions. Such a hike in yield volatility could have

The existence of global solution and ''blow up'' phenomenon for the system of multi-dimensional symmetric regularized wave equations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guo Boling.

1988-08-01

The existence and uniqueness of the global smooth solution for the initial-boundary value problem of the system of multi-dimensions SRWE are proved. The sufficient conditions of ''blowing up'' of the solution are given. (author). 6 refs

The WACMOS-ET project - Part 2: Evaluation of global terrestrial evaporation data sets

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gonzalez Miralles, D.; Jiménez, C.; Jung, M.; Michel, D.; Ershadi, A.; McCabe, M.F.; Hirschi, M.; Martens, B.; Dolman, A.J.; Fisher, J.B.; Mu, Q.; Seneviratne, S.I.; Wood, E.F.; Fernández-Prieto, D.

2016-01-01

The WAter Cycle Multi-mission Observation Strategy - EvapoTranspiration (WACMOS-ET) project aims to advance the development of land evaporation estimates on global and regional scales. Its main objective is the derivation, validation, and intercomparison of a group of existing evaporation retrieval

Associations for Citizen Science: Regional Knowledge, Global Collaboration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martin Storksdieck

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Since 2012, three organizations advancing the work of citizen science practitioners have arisen in different regions: The primarily US-based but globally open Citizen Science Association (CSA, the European Citizen Science Association (ECSA, and the Australian Citizen Science Association (ACSA. These associations are moving rapidly to establish themselves and to develop inter-association collaborations. We consider the factors driving this emergence and the significance of this trend for citizen science as a field of practice, as an area of scholarship, and for the culture of scientific research itself.

Ocean Data Interoperability Platform (ODIP): using regional data systems for global ocean research

Science.gov (United States)

Schaap, D.; Thijsse, P.; Glaves, H.

2017-12-01

Ocean acidification, loss of coral reefs, sustainable exploitation of the marine environment are just a few of the challenges researchers around the world are currently attempting to understand and address. However, studies of these ecosystem level challenges are impossible unless researchers can discover and re-use the large volumes of interoperable multidisciplinary data that are currently only accessible through regional and global data systems that serve discreet, and often discipline specific, user communities. The plethora of marine data systems currently in existence are also using different standards, technologies and best practices making re-use of the data problematic for those engaged in interdisciplinary marine research. The Ocean Data Interoperability Platform (ODIP) is responding to this growing demand for discoverable, accessible and reusable data by establishing the foundations for a common global framework for marine data management. But creation of such an infrastructure is a major undertaking, and one that needs to be achieved in part by establishing different levels of interoperability across existing regional and global marine e-infrastructures. Workshops organised by ODIP II facilitate dialogue between selected regional and global marine data systems in an effort to identify potential solutions that integrate these marine e-infrastructures. The outcomes of these discussions have formed the basis for a number of prototype development tasks that aim to demonstrate effective sharing of data across multiple data systems, and allow users to access data from more than one system through a single access point. The ODIP II project is currently developing four prototype solutions that are establishing interoperability between selected regional marine data management infrastructures in Europe, the USA, Canada and Australia, and with the global POGO, IODE Ocean Data Portal (ODP) and GEOSS systems. The potential impact of implementing these solutions for

AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments for 1.5°C and 2.0°C

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenzweig, C.

2017-12-01

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has developed novel methods for Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of agriculture and food security in a changing world. The present study performs a proof-of-concept of the CGRA to demonstrate advantages and challenges of the framework. This effort responds to the request by UNFCCC for the implications of limiting global temperature increases to 1.5°C and 2.0°C above pre-industrial conditions. The protocols for the 1.5°C/2.0°C assessment establish explicit and testable linkages across disciplines and scales, connecting outputs and inputs from the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs), HAPPI and CMIP5 ensemble scenarios, global gridded crop models, global agricultural economic models, site-based crop models, and within-country regional economic models. CGRA results show that at the global scale, mixed areas of positive and negative simulated yield changes, with declines in some breadbasket regions led to overall declines in productivity at both 1.5°C and 2.0°C. These projected global yield changes resulted in increases in prices of major commodities in a global economic model. Simulations for 1.5°C and 2.0°C using site-based crop models had mixed results depending on region and crop, but with more negative effects on productivity at 2.0°C than at 1.5°C for the most part. In conjunction with price changes from the global economics models, these productivity declines resulted generally in small positive effects on regional farm livelihoods, showing that farming systems should continue to be viable under high mitigation scenarios. CGRA protocols focus on how mitigation actions and effects differ across scales, with main mechanisms studied in the integrated assessment models being policies and technologies that reduce direct non-CO2 emissions from agriculture, reduce CO2 emissions from land use change and forest sink enhancement

Microphysics in Multi-scale Modeling System with Unified Physics

Science.gov (United States)

Tao, Wei-Kuo

2012-01-01

Recently, a multi-scale modeling system with unified physics was developed at NASA Goddard. It consists of (1) a cloud-resolving model (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model, GCE model), (2) a regional scale model (a NASA unified weather research and forecast, WRF), (3) a coupled CRM and global model (Goddard Multi-scale Modeling Framework, MMF), and (4) a land modeling system. The same microphysical processes, long and short wave radiative transfer and land processes and the explicit cloud-radiation, and cloud-land surface interactive processes are applied in this multi-scale modeling system. This modeling system has been coupled with a multi-satellite simulator to use NASA high-resolution satellite data to identify the strengths and weaknesses of cloud and precipitation processes simulated by the model. In this talk, a review of developments and applications of the multi-scale modeling system will be presented. In particular, the microphysics development and its performance for the multi-scale modeling system will be presented.

Analysis of Roanoke Region Weather Patterns Under Global Teleconnections

OpenAIRE

LaRocque, Eric John

2006-01-01

This work attempts to relate global teleconnections, through physical phenomena such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Artic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern to synoptic-scale weather patterns and precipitation in the Roanoke, Virginia region. The first chapter describes the behavior of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by implementing non-homogeneous and homogeneous Markov Chain models on a monthly time series o...

THE REGIONAL IMPACTS OF THE 2008-2009 GLOBAL CRISIS ON GOVERNANCE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

HALIL DINCER KAYA

2017-04-01

Full Text Available In this study, we examine the regional impacts of the 2008-2009 Global Crisis on Governance. We use World Bank’s Worldwide Governance Indicators (i.e. WGI which includes six dimensions of governance. These six dimensions are “Voice and Accountability”, “Political Stability and Absence of Violence”, “Government Effectiveness”, “Regulatory Quality”, “Rule of Law”, and “Control of Corruption”. The regions that we examine are North America, Europe and Central Asia, Latin America and Caribbean, East Asia and Pacific, South Asia, SubSaharan Africa, and Middle East and North Africa. We examine how the global crisis affected the ranking of each region in terms of these six dimensions of governance. Although, both pre- and post-crisis, North America had the highest ranking in all six measures and Sub-Saharan Africa had the lowest ranking in most measures, the rankings of other regions went up or down in different measures. Our findings show that, due to the crisis, while the overall rankings of Europe and Central Asia, Latin America and Caribbean, and South Asia improved after the crisis, the ranking of East Asia and Pacific declined. East Asia and Pacific’s ranking declined in terms of “Political Stability and Absence of Violence”, “Regulatory Quality”, and “Control of Corruption”.

Global and regional estimates of COPD prevalence: Systematic review and meta–analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Davies Adeloye

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD across many world regions is high. We aim to estimate COPD prevalence and number of disease cases for the years 1990 and 2010 across world regions based on the best available evidence in publicly accessible scientific databases. We conducted a systematic search of Medline, EMBASE and Global Health for original, population–based studies providing spirometry–based prevalence rates of COPD across the world from January 1990 to December 2014. Random effects meta–analysis was conducted on extracted crude prevalence rates of COPD, with overall summaries of the meta–estimates (and confidence intervals reported separately for World Health Organization (WHO regions, the World Bank's income categories and settings (urban and rural. We developed a meta–regression epidemiological model that we used to estimate the prevalence of COPD in people aged 30 years or more. Our search returned 37 472 publications. A total of 123 studies based on a spirometry–defined prevalence were retained for the review. From the meta–regression epidemiological model, we estimated about 227.3 million COPD cases in the year 1990 among people aged 30 years or more, corresponding to a global prevalence of 10.7% (95% confidence interval (CI 7.3%–14.0% in this age group. The number of COPD cases increased to 384 million in 2010, with a global prevalence of 11.7% (8.4%–15.0%. This increase of 68.9% was mainly driven by global demographic changes. Across WHO regions, the highest prevalence was estimated in the Americas (13.3% in 1990 and 15.2% in 2010, and the lowest in South East Asia (7.9% in 1990 and 9.7% in 2010. The percentage increase in COPD cases between 1990 and 2010 was the highest in the Eastern Mediterranean region (118.7%, followed by the African region (102.1%, while the European region recorded the lowest increase (22.5%. In 1990, we estimated about 120.9 million COPD cases among urban dwellers

Assessing and Responding to the Risks of Global and Societal Changes in the MENA Region

Science.gov (United States)

Lange, Manfred

2017-04-01

Interactions and feedbacks between rapidly increasing multiple pressures on water, energy and food security drive social-ecological systems at multiple scales towards critical thresholds in countries of the Eastern Mediterranean, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA Region). The MENA Region is expected to experience significantly above-global-mean changes in climatic conditions and has been designated as one of the global "climate change hot spots" (Giorgi, F., 2006). The MENA region is also characterized by one of the highest rates of population growth on Earth, having seen a 3.7-fold increase in population between 1950 to 2000. The region is expected to continue to see a roughly doubling of its population until 2050 (Population Reference Bureau, 2001). Significant gender inequalities and an extremely high rate of youth unemployment are repercussions of such developments that exacerbate the societal pressures and tensions in the region. In addition, the events of the "Arab Spring", have resulted in major political, economic and societal transitions and have frequently been accompanied by significant armed struggles within and between countries of the MENA Region. These developments and the still ongoing conflicts in parts of the region render this region to one of the global "political, societal and humanitarian hot-spots". Responding to these challenges requires integrated science and a close relationship between policy makers and stakeholders, a need that Future Earth (www.futureearth.org) has been designed to respond to. In order to address the requirements of nation states and local communities, Future Earth has adopted a regional governance structure. This has resulted in the establishment of the Future Earth MENA Regional Center at the Cyprus Institute (FEMRC) in Nicosia, Cyprus, as one of five Regional Centers worldwide. One of the major challenges in establishing a regional Future-Earth-related research agenda lies in a comprehensive assessments of the

Regional Climate Impacts of Stabilizing Global Warming at 1.5 K Using Solar Geoengineering

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Anthony C.; Hawcroft, Matthew K.; Haywood, James M.; Jones, Andy; Guo, Xiaoran; Moore, John C.

2018-02-01

The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2 K above preindustrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 K, in order to avert dangerous climate change. However, current greenhouse gas emissions targets are more compatible with scenarios exhibiting end-of-century global warming of 2.6-3.1 K, in clear contradiction to the 1.5 K target. In this study, we use a global climate model to investigate the climatic impacts of using solar geoengineering by stratospheric aerosol injection to stabilize global-mean temperature at 1.5 K for the duration of the 21st century against three scenarios spanning the range of plausible greenhouse gas mitigation pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). In addition to stabilizing global mean temperature and offsetting both Arctic sea-ice loss and thermosteric sea-level rise, we find that solar geoengineering could effectively counteract enhancements to the frequency of extreme storms in the North Atlantic and heatwaves in Europe, but would be less effective at counteracting hydrological changes in the Amazon basin and North Atlantic storm track displacement. In summary, solar geoengineering may reduce global mean impacts but is an imperfect solution at the regional level, where the effects of climate change are experienced. Our results should galvanize research into the regionality of climate responses to solar geoengineering.

The European climate under a 2 °C global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vautard, Robert; Stegehuis, Annemiek; Gobiet, Andreas; Mendlik, Thomas; Sobolowski, Stefan; Kjellström, Erik; Nikulin, Grigory; Watkiss, Paul; Landgren, Oskar; Teichmann, Claas; Jacob, Daniela

2014-01-01

A global warming of 2 °C relative to pre-industrial climate has been considered as a threshold which society should endeavor to remain below, in order to limit the dangerous effects of anthropogenic climate change. The possible changes in regional climate under this target level of global warming have so far not been investigated in detail. Using an ensemble of 15 regional climate simulations downscaling six transient global climate simulations, we identify the respective time periods corresponding to 2 °C global warming, describe the range of projected changes for the European climate for this level of global warming, and investigate the uncertainty across the multi-model ensemble. Robust changes in mean and extreme temperature, precipitation, winds and surface energy budgets are found based on the ensemble of simulations. The results indicate that most of Europe will experience higher warming than the global average. They also reveal strong distributional patterns across Europe, which will be important in subsequent impact assessments and adaptation responses in different countries and regions. For instance, a North–South (West–East) warming gradient is found for summer (winter) along with a general increase in heavy precipitation and summer extreme temperatures. Tying the ensemble analysis to time periods with a prescribed global temperature change rather than fixed time periods allows for the identification of more robust regional patterns of temperature changes due to removal of some of the uncertainty related to the global models’ climate sensitivity. (paper)

The truth lies somewhere in the middle: Swinging between globalization and regionalization of medical education in Japan.

Science.gov (United States)

Saiki, Takuya; Imafuku, Rintaro; Suzuki, Yasuyuki; Ban, Nobutaro

2017-10-01

Japan is well known as a super-aging society, with a low birth rate, and has been ranked as one of the countries having the highest quality of healthcare system. Japan's society is currently approaching a major turning point with regard to societal and healthcare reforms, which are influenced by international trends and regional needs. Development of Japanese healthcare human resources, including medical students, is now expected to ride the wave of globalization, while resolving regional problems in the training and delivery of healthcare. Terms and global trends in medical education, such as outcome-based education, community-based education, reflective learning, international accreditation of medical education, and professionalization of educators are well translated into the Japanese language and embraced positively among the Japanese medical educators. However, these trends occasionally sit uncomfortably with cultural variations that are often a common approach in Japan; notably, "hansei" (introspection) and "kaizen" (change for the better). In the world facing a new era where people are unsettled between globalism and regionalism, Japan's future mission is to steer a balanced route that recognizes both global and regional influences and produce global health professionals educators.

A global coal production forecast with multi-Hubbert cycle analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Patzek, Tadeusz W. [Department of Petroleum and Geosystems Engineering, The University of Texas, Austin, TX 78712 (United States); Croft, Gregory D. [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The University of California, Berkeley, Davis Hall, CA 94720 (United States)

2010-08-15

Based on economic and policy considerations that appear to be unconstrained by geophysics, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) generated forty carbon production and emissions scenarios. In this paper, we develop a base-case scenario for global coal production based on the physical multi-cycle Hubbert analysis of historical production data. Areas with large resources but little production history, such as Alaska and the Russian Far East, are treated as sensitivities on top of this base-case, producing an additional 125 Gt of coal. The value of this approach is that it provides a reality check on the magnitude of carbon emissions in a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. The resulting base-case is significantly below 36 of the 40 carbon emission scenarios from the IPCC. The global peak of coal production from existing coalfields is predicted to occur close to the year 2011. The peak coal production rate is 160 EJ/y, and the peak carbon emissions from coal burning are 4.0 Gt C (15 Gt CO{sub 2}) per year. After 2011, the production rates of coal and CO{sub 2} decline, reaching 1990 levels by the year 2037, and reaching 50% of the peak value in the year 2047. It is unlikely that future mines will reverse the trend predicted in this BAU scenario. (author)

Global sensitivity analysis of the joint kinematics during gait to the parameters of a lower limb multi-body model.

Science.gov (United States)

El Habachi, Aimad; Moissenet, Florent; Duprey, Sonia; Cheze, Laurence; Dumas, Raphaël

2015-07-01

Sensitivity analysis is a typical part of biomechanical models evaluation. For lower limb multi-body models, sensitivity analyses have been mainly performed on musculoskeletal parameters, more rarely on the parameters of the joint models. This study deals with a global sensitivity analysis achieved on a lower limb multi-body model that introduces anatomical constraints at the ankle, tibiofemoral, and patellofemoral joints. The aim of the study was to take into account the uncertainty of parameters (e.g. 2.5 cm on the positions of the skin markers embedded in the segments, 5° on the orientation of hinge axis, 2.5 mm on the origin and insertion of ligaments) using statistical distributions and propagate it through a multi-body optimisation method used for the computation of joint kinematics from skin markers during gait. This will allow us to identify the most influential parameters on the minimum of the objective function of the multi-body optimisation (i.e. the sum of the squared distances between measured and model-determined skin marker positions) and on the joint angles and displacements. To quantify this influence, a Fourier-based algorithm of global sensitivity analysis coupled with a Latin hypercube sampling is used. This sensitivity analysis shows that some parameters of the motor constraints, that is to say the distances between measured and model-determined skin marker positions, and the kinematic constraints are highly influencing the joint kinematics obtained from the lower limb multi-body model, for example, positions of the skin markers embedded in the shank and pelvis, parameters of the patellofemoral hinge axis, and parameters of the ankle and tibiofemoral ligaments. The resulting standard deviations on the joint angles and displacements reach 36° and 12 mm. Therefore, personalisation, customisation or identification of these most sensitive parameters of the lower limb multi-body models may be considered as essential.

Multi-region and single-cell sequencing reveal variable genomic heterogeneity in rectal cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Mingshan; Liu, Yang; Di, Jiabo; Su, Zhe; Yang, Hong; Jiang, Beihai; Wang, Zaozao; Zhuang, Meng; Bai, Fan; Su, Xiangqian

2017-11-23

Colorectal cancer is a heterogeneous group of malignancies with complex molecular subtypes. While colon cancer has been widely investigated, studies on rectal cancer are very limited. Here, we performed multi-region whole-exome sequencing and single-cell whole-genome sequencing to examine the genomic intratumor heterogeneity (ITH) of rectal tumors. We sequenced nine tumor regions and 88 single cells from two rectal cancer patients with tumors of the same molecular classification and characterized their mutation profiles and somatic copy number alterations (SCNAs) at the multi-region and the single-cell levels. A variable extent of genomic heterogeneity was observed between the two patients, and the degree of ITH increased when analyzed on the single-cell level. We found that major SCNAs were early events in cancer development and inherited steadily. Single-cell sequencing revealed mutations and SCNAs which were hidden in bulk sequencing. In summary, we studied the ITH of rectal cancer at regional and single-cell resolution and demonstrated that variable heterogeneity existed in two patients. The mutational scenarios and SCNA profiles of two patients with treatment naïve from the same molecular subtype are quite different. Our results suggest each tumor possesses its own architecture, which may result in different diagnosis, prognosis, and drug responses. Remarkable ITH exists in the two patients we have studied, providing a preliminary impression of ITH in rectal cancer.

Orographic precipitation at global and regional scales: Observational uncertainty and evaluation of 25-km global model simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Schiemann, Reinhard; Roberts, Charles J.; Bush, Stephanie; Demory, Marie-Estelle; Strachan, Jane; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Mizielinski, Matthew S.; Roberts, Malcolm J.

2015-04-01

Precipitation over land exhibits a high degree of variability due to the complex interaction of the precipitation generating atmospheric processes with coastlines, the heterogeneous land surface, and orography. Global general circulation models (GCMs) have traditionally had very limited ability to capture this variability on the mesoscale (here ~50-500 km) due to their low resolution. This has changed with recent investments in resolution and ensembles of multidecadal climate simulations of atmospheric GCMs (AGCMs) with ~25 km grid spacing are becoming increasingly available. Here, we evaluate the mesoscale precipitation distribution in one such set of simulations obtained in the UPSCALE (UK on PrACE - weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk) modelling campaign with the HadGEM-GA3 AGCM. Increased model resolution also poses new challenges to the observational datasets used to evaluate models. Global gridded data products such as those provided by the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) are invaluable for assessing large-scale features of the precipitation distribution but may not sufficiently resolve mesoscale structures. In the absence of independent estimates, the intercomparison of different observational datasets may be the only way to get some insight into the uncertainties associated with these observations. Here, we focus on mid-latitude continental regions where observations based on higher-density gauge networks are available in addition to the global data sets: Europe/the Alps, South and East Asia, and the continental US. The ability of GCMs to represent mesoscale variability is of interest in its own right, as climate information on this scale is required by impact studies. An additional motivation for the research proposed here arises from continuing efforts to quantify the components of the global radiation budget and water cycle. Recent estimates based on radiation measurements suggest that the global mean

Sunshine-based estimation of global solar radiation on horizontal surface at Lake Van region (Turkey)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duzen, Hacer; Aydin, Harun

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► The global solar radiation at Lake Van region is estimated. ► This study is unique for the Lake Van region. ► Solar radiation around Lake Van has the highest value at the east-southeast region. ► The annual average solar energy potential is obtained as 750–2458 kWh/m 2 . ► Results can be used to estimate evaporation. - Abstract: In this study several sunshine-based regression models have been evaluated to estimate monthly average daily global solar radiation on horizontal surface of Lake Van region in the Eastern Anatolia region in Turkey by using data obtained from seven different meteorological stations. These models are derived from Angström–Prescott linear regression model and its derivatives such as quadratic, cubic, logarithmic and exponential. The performance of this regression models were evaluated by comparing the calculated clearness index and the measured clearness index. Several statistical tests were used to control the validation and goodness of the regression models in terms of the coefficient of determination, mean percent error, mean absolute percent error, mean biased error, mean absolute biased error, root mean square error and t-statistic. The results of all the regression models are within acceptable limits according to the statistical tests. However, the best performances are obtained by cubic regression model for Bitlis, Gevaş, Hakkari, Muş stations and by quadratic regression model for Malazgirt, Tatvan and Van stations to predict global solar radiation. The spatial distributions of the monthly average daily global solar radiation around the Lake Van region were obtained with interpolation of calculated solar radiation data that acquired from best fit models of the stations. The annual average solar energy potential for Lake Van region is obtained between 750 kWh/m 2 and 2485 kWh/m 2 with annual average of 1610 kWh/m 2 .

[Health and globalization in the San Diego-Tijuana region].

Science.gov (United States)

Villa-Caballero, Leonel; Caballero-Solano, Víctor Manuel; Andrade-Barreto, Olga Alicia

2008-01-01

The international process of trading goods and services with significant reduction in barriers known as globalization is clearly observed at the San Diego-Tijuana region. This essay addresses issues arising at this unique geographical area associated with the globalization process and its public health consequences. Social, cultural and political aspects have very important implications on the health status of the U.S-Mexican population and in the health care systems on both sides of the border. One of the most powerful world economies borders a developing country resulting in a dramatic comparison that has negative outcomes such as health disparities, high prevalence of chronic diseases and new epidemiological risks. Poverty and migration are a few of the contributing factors triggering this asymmetrical relationship. Challenges in border health require a comprehensive binational participation and the solutions are yet to be determined.

Efficient 3D multi-region prostate MRI segmentation using dual optimization.

Science.gov (United States)

Qiu, Wu; Yuan, Jing; Ukwatta, Eranga; Sun, Yue; Rajchl, Martin; Fenster, Aaron

2013-01-01

Efficient and accurate extraction of the prostate, in particular its clinically meaningful sub-regions from 3D MR images, is of great interest in image-guided prostate interventions and diagnosis of prostate cancer. In this work, we propose a novel multi-region segmentation approach to simultaneously locating the boundaries of the prostate and its two major sub-regions: the central gland and the peripheral zone. The proposed method utilizes the prior knowledge of the spatial region consistency and employs a customized prostate appearance model to simultaneously segment multiple clinically meaningful regions. We solve the resulted challenging combinatorial optimization problem by means of convex relaxation, for which we introduce a novel spatially continuous flow-maximization model and demonstrate its duality to the investigated convex relaxed optimization problem with the region consistency constraint. Moreover, the proposed continuous max-flow model naturally leads to a new and efficient continuous max-flow based algorithm, which enjoys great advantages in numerics and can be readily implemented on GPUs. Experiments using 15 T2-weighted 3D prostate MR images, by inter- and intra-operator variability, demonstrate the promising performance of the proposed approach.

The last Deglaciation in the Mediterranean region: a multi-archives synthesis

Science.gov (United States)

Bazin, Lucie; Siani, Giuseppe; Landais, Amaelle; Bassinot, Frank; Genty, Dominique; Govin, Aline; Michel, Elisabeth; Nomade, Sebastien; Waelbroeck, Claire

2016-04-01

Multiple proxies record past climatic changes in different climate archives. These proxies are influenced by different component of the climate system and bring complementary information on past climate variability. The major limitation when combining proxies from different archives comes from the coherency of their chronologies. Indeed, each climate archives possess their own dating methods, not necessarily coherent with each other's. Consequently, when we want to assess the latitudinal changes and mechanisms behind a climate event, we often have to rely on assumptions of synchronisation between the different archives, such as synchronous temperature changes during warming events (Austin and Hibbert 2010). Recently, a dating method originally developed to produce coherent chronologies for ice cores (Datice,Lemieux-Dudon et al., 2010) has been adapted in order to integrate different climate archives (ice cores, sediment cores and speleothems (Lemieux-Dudon et al., 2015, Bazin et al., in prep)). In this presentation we present the validation of this multi-archives dating tool with a first application covering the last Deglaciation in the Mediterranean region. For this experiment, we consider the records from Monticchio, the MD90-917, Tenaghi Philippon and Lake Orhid sediment cores as well as continuous speleothems from Sofular, Soreq and La Mine caves. Using the Datice dating tool, and with the identification of common tephra layers between the cores considered, we are able to produce a multi-archives coherent chronology for this region, independently of any climatic assumption. Using this common chronological framework, we show that the usual climatic synchronisation assumptions are not valid over this region for the last glacial-interglacial transition. Finally, we compare our coherent Mediterranean chronology with Greenland ice core records in order to discuss the sequence of events of the last Deglaciation between these two regions.

MULTI-VECTOR DIVERSIFICATION: KAZAKHASTAN´S TRANSNATIONAL FUTURE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elvira Aidarkhanova

2017-10-01

Full Text Available The recent election of the Republic of Kazakhstan as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council gives the country an opportunity to participate more directly in shaping regional and global energy, economics, and security. A multi-vector and balanced foreign policy will allow Kazakhstan to strengthen regional security and enhance integration processes with Central Asian states. Kazakhstan can contribute to regional energy security, counterterrorism, nuclear nonproliferation, and other goals. Kazakhstan is among a few countries in the Eurasian region where primary energy production significantly exceeds energy consumption. The country also has striven to reduce regional tensions and terrorism. Meanwhile, non-proliferation has since independence has come to represent the organizing principle of the country’s cooperative foreign policy, one that seeks independence through simultaneous engagement with external powers

A multi-objective framework to predict flows of ungauged rivers within regions of sparse hydrometeorologic observation

Science.gov (United States)

Alipour, M.; Kibler, K. M.

2017-12-01

Despite advances in flow prediction, managers of ungauged rivers located within broad regions of sparse hydrometeorologic observation still lack prescriptive methods robust to the data challenges of such regions. We propose a multi-objective streamflow prediction framework for regions of minimum observation to select models that balance runoff efficiency with choice of accurate parameter values. We supplement sparse observed data with uncertain or low-resolution information incorporated as `soft' a priori parameter estimates. The performance of the proposed framework is tested against traditional single-objective and constrained single-objective calibrations in two catchments in a remote area of southwestern China. We find that the multi-objective approach performs well with respect to runoff efficiency in both catchments (NSE = 0.74 and 0.72), within the range of efficiencies returned by other models (NSE = 0.67 - 0.78). However, soil moisture capacity estimated by the multi-objective model resonates with a priori estimates (parameter residuals of 61 cm versus 289 and 518 cm for maximum soil moisture capacity in one catchment, and 20 cm versus 246 and 475 cm in the other; parameter residuals of 0.48 versus 0.65 and 0.7 for soil moisture distribution shape factor in one catchment, and 0.91 versus 0.79 and 1.24 in the other). Thus, optimization to a multi-criteria objective function led to very different representations of soil moisture capacity as compared to models selected by single-objective calibration, without compromising runoff efficiency. These different soil moisture representations may translate into considerably different hydrological behaviors. The proposed approach thus offers a preliminary step towards greater process understanding in regions of severe data limitations. For instance, the multi-objective framework may be an adept tool to discern between models of similar efficiency to select models that provide the "right answers for the right reasons

Multidecadal global cooling and unprecedented ozone loss following a regional nuclear conflict

Science.gov (United States)

Mills, Michael J.; Toon, Owen B.; Lee-Taylor, Julia; Robock, Alan

2014-04-01

We present the first study of the global impacts of a regional nuclear war with an Earth system model including atmospheric chemistry, ocean dynamics, and interactive sea ice and land components. A limited, regional nuclear war between India and Pakistan in which each side detonates 50 15 kt weapons could produce about 5 Tg of black carbon (BC). This would self-loft to the stratosphere, where it would spread globally, producing a sudden drop in surface temperatures and intense heating of the stratosphere. Using the Community Earth System Model with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, we calculate an e-folding time of 8.7 years for stratospheric BC compared to 4-6.5 years for previous studies. Our calculations show that global ozone losses of 20%-50% over populated areas, levels unprecedented in human history, would accompany the coldest average surface temperatures in the last 1000 years. We calculate summer enhancements in UV indices of 30%-80% over midlatitudes, suggesting widespread damage to human health, agriculture, and terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Killing frosts would reduce growing seasons by 10-40 days per year for 5 years. Surface temperatures would be reduced for more than 25 years due to thermal inertia and albedo effects in the ocean and expanded sea ice. The combined cooling and enhanced UV would put significant pressures on global food supplies and could trigger a global nuclear famine. Knowledge of the impacts of 100 small nuclear weapons should motivate the elimination of more than 17,000 nuclear weapons that exist today.

Application of thin plate splines for accurate regional ionosphere modeling with multi-GNSS data

Science.gov (United States)

Krypiak-Gregorczyk, Anna; Wielgosz, Pawel; Borkowski, Andrzej

2016-04-01

GNSS-derived regional ionosphere models are widely used in both precise positioning, ionosphere and space weather studies. However, their accuracy is often not sufficient to support precise positioning, RTK in particular. In this paper, we presented new approach that uses solely carrier phase multi-GNSS observables and thin plate splines (TPS) for accurate ionospheric TEC modeling. TPS is a closed solution of a variational problem minimizing both the sum of squared second derivatives of a smoothing function and the deviation between data points and this function. This approach is used in UWM-rt1 regional ionosphere model developed at UWM in Olsztyn. The model allows for providing ionospheric TEC maps with high spatial and temporal resolutions - 0.2x0.2 degrees and 2.5 minutes, respectively. For TEC estimation, EPN and EUPOS reference station data is used. The maps are available with delay of 15-60 minutes. In this paper we compare the performance of UWM-rt1 model with IGS global and CODE regional ionosphere maps during ionospheric storm that took place on March 17th, 2015. During this storm, the TEC level over Europe doubled comparing to earlier quiet days. The performance of the UWM-rt1 model was validated by (a) comparison to reference double-differenced ionospheric corrections over selected baselines, and (b) analysis of post-fit residuals to calibrated carrier phase geometry-free observational arcs at selected test stations. The results show a very good performance of UWM-rt1 model. The obtained post-fit residuals in case of UWM maps are lower by one order of magnitude comparing to IGS maps. The accuracy of UWM-rt1 -derived TEC maps is estimated at 0.5 TECU. This may be directly translated to the user positioning domain.

Quantitative assessment of selected policy instruments using the Western European MARKAL model. Phase III EU SAVE White and Green Project: Comparison of market-based instruments to promote energy efficiency

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mundaca, Luis; Santi, Federico

2004-01-01

This report summarises the modelling exercise carried out in order to assess the implications of selected policy instruments using the energy model of Western Europe (WEU) generated by the Market Allocation (MARKAL) modelling tool. The chosen methodology was the usage of the WEU MARKAL model for analysing the response of this energy system to the following policy instruments: White Certificates, Green Certificates, and Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions trading. Results show that the order of magnitude of the effects of the analysed instruments depends on the target/cap that is applied. For the case of White Certificates, it can be observed that up to certain level (i.e., around 15% of cumulated energy savings by 2020 compared to the base case) energy savings are obtained at negative costs. Major savings occur in the residential sector for all the applied targets. Results for CO 2 emissions appear to be robust for the years 2015 and 2020, but it should also be observed that these emission trends are less robust for the years 2005 and 2010. Energy efficiency improvements for the WEU economy that are policy-induced around 6%, 9% and 15% for the low, medium and high target scenarios respectively. For the case of Green Certificates, results show that the sustained penetration of renewable energy sources is dominated by wind and biomass. By examining the autonomous fossil fuel intensity of the WEU economy, energy efficiency improvements that are policy induced account for around 1%, 4% and 6% for each scenario respectively. All the targets are technically possible. For the case of CO 2 emissions trading, due to the fact that these results address just the power sector, they must be seen as complementary of other modelling works that deal with a wider industrial coverage. In our case, the more ambitious the cap is, the lower the share of fossil fuels in electricity production becomes. The different trends for the electricity production seem to be less robust. Compared to

Regions of mid-level human visual cortex sensitive to the global coherence of local image patches.

Science.gov (United States)

Mannion, Damien J; Kersten, Daniel J; Olman, Cheryl A

2014-08-01

The global structural arrangement and spatial layout of the visual environment must be derived from the integration of local signals represented in the lower tiers of the visual system. This interaction between the spatially local and global properties of visual stimulation underlies many of our visual capacities, and how this is achieved in the brain is a central question for visual and cognitive neuroscience. Here, we examine the sensitivity of regions of the posterior human brain to the global coordination of spatially displaced naturalistic image patches. We presented observers with image patches in two circular apertures to the left and right of central fixation, with the patches drawn from either the same (coherent condition) or different (noncoherent condition) extended image. Using fMRI at 7T (n = 5), we find that global coherence affected signal amplitude in regions of dorsal mid-level cortex. Furthermore, we find that extensive regions of mid-level visual cortex contained information in their local activity pattern that could discriminate coherent and noncoherent stimuli. These findings indicate that the global coordination of local naturalistic image information has important consequences for the processing in human mid-level visual cortex.

RICM, Resonance Absorption in Multi-Region Slab or Square or Hexagonal Lattice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mizuta, H.; Aoyama, K.; Fukai, Y.

1968-01-01

1 - Nature of physical problem solved: Calculates the resonance absorption integral of resonant isotope in a multi-region lattice using the first flight collision probability. The lattice configurations considered are a slab lattice, a square or hexagonal lattice and a cylindricalized lattice with isotropic or perfect reflecting boundary condition. Cases for an isolated rod or plate and homogeneous system can also be treated. 2 - Method of solution: Slowing down of neutrons by each isotope in each region is solved by either exact numerical integration of the slowing down equation or narrow - or wide-resonance approximation. Breit-Wigner's single level formula is used for the resonance cross section and Porter-Thomas distribution of neutron width is taken into account in the unresolved region. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: Maximum number of regions: 5; Maximum Number of groups: 100

Regional to Global Assessments of Phytoplankton Dynamics From The SeaWiFS Mission

Science.gov (United States)

Siegel, David; Behrenfeld, Michael; Maritorena, Stephanie; McClain, Charles R.; Antoine, David; Bailey, Sean W.; Bontempi, Paula S.; Boss, Emmanuel S.; Dierssen, Heidi M.; Doney, Scott C.;

Similar Estimates of Temperature Impacts on Global Wheat Yield by Three Independent Methods

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Bing; Asseng, Senthold; Muller, Christoph; Ewart, Frank; Elliott, Joshua; Lobell, David B.; Martre, Pierre; Ruane, Alex C.; Wallach, Daniel; Jones, James W.;

Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Bing; Asseng, Senthold; Müller, Christoph; Ewert, Frank; Elliott, Joshua; Lobell, David B.; Martre, Pierre; Ruane, Alex C.; Wallach, Daniel; Jones, James W.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Alderman, Phillip D.; Anothai, Jakarat; Basso, Bruno; Biernath, Christian; Cammarano, Davide; Challinor, Andy; Deryng, Delphine; Sanctis, Giacomo De; Doltra, Jordi; Fereres, Elias; Folberth, Christian; Garcia-Vila, Margarita; Gayler, Sebastian; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Hunt, Leslie A.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Jabloun, Mohamed; Jones, Curtis D.; Kersebaum, Kurt C.; Kimball, Bruce A.; Koehler, Ann-Kristin; Kumar, Soora Naresh; Nendel, Claas; O'Leary, Garry J.; Olesen, Jørgen E.; Ottman, Michael J.; Palosuo, Taru; Prasad, P. V. Vara; Priesack, Eckart; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Reynolds, Matthew; Rezaei, Ehsan E.; Rötter, Reimund P.; Schmid, Erwin; Semenov, Mikhail A.; Shcherbak, Iurii; Stehfest, Elke; Stöckle, Claudio O.; Stratonovitch, Pierre; Streck, Thilo; Supit, Iwan; Tao, Fulu; Thorburn, Peter; Waha, Katharina; Wall, Gerard W.; Wang, Enli; White, Jeffrey W.; Wolf, Joost; Zhao, Zhigan; Zhu, Yan

2016-12-01

The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 °C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify `method uncertainty’ in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.

Precise positioning with current multi-constellation Global Navigation Satellite Systems: GPS, GLONASS, Galileo and BeiDou.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Xingxing; Zhang, Xiaohong; Ren, Xiaodong; Fritsche, Mathias; Wickert, Jens; Schuh, Harald

2015-02-09

The world of satellite navigation is undergoing dramatic changes with the rapid development of multi-constellation Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSSs). At the moment more than 70 satellites are already in view, and about 120 satellites will be available once all four systems (BeiDou + Galileo + GLONASS + GPS) are fully deployed in the next few years. This will bring great opportunities and challenges for both scientific and engineering applications. In this paper we develop a four-system positioning model to make full use of all available observations from different GNSSs. The significant improvement of satellite visibility, spatial geometry, dilution of precision, convergence, accuracy, continuity and reliability that a combining utilization of multi-GNSS brings to precise positioning are carefully analyzed and evaluated, especially in constrained environments.

A Satellite-Based Multi-Pollutant Index of Global Air Quality

Science.gov (United States)

Cooper, Mathew J.; Martin, Randall V.; vanDonkelaar, Aaron; Lamsal, Lok; Brauer, Michael; Brook, Jeffrey R.

2012-01-01

Air pollution is a major health hazard that is responsible formillions of annual excess deaths worldwide. Simpleindicators are useful for comparative studies and to asses strends over time. The development of global indicators hasbeen impeded by the lack of ground-based observations in vast regions of the world. Recognition is growing of the need for amultipollutant approach to air quality to better represent human exposure. Here we introduce the prospect of amultipollutant air quality indicator based on observations from satellite remote sensing.

Simulating secondary organic aerosol in a regional air quality model using the statistical oxidation model – Part 1: Assessing the influence of constrained multi-generational ageing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. H. Jathar

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Multi-generational oxidation of volatile organic compound (VOC oxidation products can significantly alter the mass, chemical composition and properties of secondary organic aerosol (SOA compared to calculations that consider only the first few generations of oxidation reactions. However, the most commonly used state-of-the-science schemes in 3-D regional or global models that account for multi-generational oxidation (1 consider only functionalization reactions but do not consider fragmentation reactions, (2 have not been constrained to experimental data and (3 are added on top of existing parameterizations. The incomplete description of multi-generational oxidation in these models has the potential to bias source apportionment and control calculations for SOA. In this work, we used the statistical oxidation model (SOM of Cappa and Wilson (2012, constrained by experimental laboratory chamber data, to evaluate the regional implications of multi-generational oxidation considering both functionalization and fragmentation reactions. SOM was implemented into the regional University of California at Davis / California Institute of Technology (UCD/CIT air quality model and applied to air quality episodes in California and the eastern USA. The mass, composition and properties of SOA predicted using SOM were compared to SOA predictions generated by a traditional two-product model to fully investigate the impact of explicit and self-consistent accounting of multi-generational oxidation.Results show that SOA mass concentrations predicted by the UCD/CIT-SOM model are very similar to those predicted by a two-product model when both models use parameters that are derived from the same chamber data. Since the two-product model does not explicitly resolve multi-generational oxidation reactions, this finding suggests that the chamber data used to parameterize the models captures the majority of the SOA mass formation from multi-generational oxidation under

Assessing the impacts induced by global climate change through a multi-risk approach: lessons learned from the North Adriatic coast (Italy)

Science.gov (United States)

Gallina, Valentina; Torressan, Silvia; Zabeo, Alex; Critto, Andrea; Glade, Thomas; Marcomini, Antonio

2015-04-01

Climate change is expected to pose a wide range of impacts on natural and human systems worldwide, increasing risks from long-term climate trends and disasters triggered by weather extremes. Accordingly, in the future, one region could be potentially affected by interactions, synergies and trade-offs of multiple hazards and impacts. A multi-risk risk approach is needed to effectively address multiple threats posed by climate change across regions and targets supporting decision-makers toward a new paradigm of multi-hazard and risk management. Relevant initiatives have been already developed for the assessment of multiple hazards and risks affecting the same area in a defined timeframe by means of quantitative and semi-quantitative approaches. Most of them are addressing the relations of different natural hazards, however, the effect of future climate change is usually not considered. In order to fill this gap, an advanced multi-risk methodology was developed at the Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change (CMCC) for estimating cumulative impacts related to climate change at the regional (i.e. sub-national) scale. This methodology was implemented into an assessment tool which allows to scan and classify quickly natural systems and human assets at risk resulting from different interacting hazards. A multi-hazard index is proposed to evaluate the relationships of different climate-related hazards (e.g. sea-level rise, coastal erosion, storm surge) occurring in the same spatial and temporal area, by means of an influence matrix and the disjoint probability function. Future hazard scenarios provided by regional climate models are used as input for this step in order to consider possible effects of future climate change scenarios. Then, the multi-vulnerability of different exposed receptors (e.g. natural systems, beaches, agricultural and urban areas) is estimated through a variety of vulnerability indicators (e.g. vegetation cover, sediment budget, % of urbanization

Exploring Hardware Support For Scaling Irregular Applications on Multi-node Multi-core Architectures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Secchi, Simone; Ceriani, Marco; Tumeo, Antonino; Villa, Oreste; Palermo, Gianluca; Raffo, Luigi

2013-06-05

With the recent emergence of large-scale knowledge dis- covery, data mining and social network analysis, irregular applications have gained renewed interest. Classic cache-based high-performance architectures do not provide optimal performances with such kind of workloads, mainly due to the very low spatial and temporal locality of the irregular control and memory access patterns. In this paper, we present a multi-node, multi-core, fine-grained multi-threaded shared-memory system architecture specifically designed for the execution of large-scale irregular applications, and built on top of three pillars, that we believe are fundamental to support these workloads. First, we offer transparent hardware support for Partitioned Global Address Space (PGAS) to provide a large globally-shared address space with no software library overhead. Second, we employ multi-threaded multi-core processing nodes to achieve the necessary latency tolerance required by accessing global memory, which potentially resides in a remote node. Finally, we devise hardware support for inter-thread synchronization on the whole global address space. We first model the performances by using an analytical model that takes into account the main architecture and application characteristics. We describe the hardware design of the proposed cus- tom architectural building blocks that provide support for the above- mentioned three pillars. Finally, we present a limited-scale evaluation of the system on a multi-board FPGA prototype with typical irregular kernels and benchmarks. The experimental evaluation demonstrates the architecture performance scalability for different configurations of the whole system.

Assessment of Global Wind Energy Resource Utilization Potential

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, M.; He, B.; Guan, Y.; Zhang, H.; Song, S.

2017-09-01

Development of wind energy resource (WER) is a key to deal with climate change and energy structure adjustment. A crucial issue is to obtain the distribution and variability of WER, and mine the suitable location to exploit it. In this paper, a multicriteria evaluation (MCE) model is constructed by integrating resource richness and stability, utilization value and trend of resource, natural environment with weights. The global resource richness is assessed through wind power density (WPD) and multi-level wind speed. The utilizable value of resource is assessed by the frequency of effective wind. The resource stability is assessed by the coefficient of variation of WPD and the frequency of prevailing wind direction. Regression slope of long time series WPD is used to assess the trend of WER. All of the resource evaluation indicators are derived from the atmospheric reanalysis data ERA-Interim with spatial resolution 0.125°. The natural environment factors mainly refer to slope and land-use suitability, which are derived from multi-resolution terrain elevation data 2010 (GMTED 2010) and GlobalCover2009. Besides, the global WER utilization potential map is produced, which shows most high potential regions are located in north of Africa. Additionally, by verifying that 22.22 % and 48.8 9% operational wind farms fall on medium-high and high potential regions respectively, the result can provide a basis for the macroscopic siting of wind farm.

The potential of global solar radiation in the Silesia region as a renewable source of energy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Waniek Katarzyna

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Historically, Silesia has been at the centre of the Polish coal industry for many years and thus has experienced poorer air quality compared to other voivodeships. However, in recent years strong economic transformation in the area has led to a considerable reduction in coal production. This study aimed to assess the variability of global solar radiation at selected stations within the Silesian voivodeship, in order to re-evaluate the resources of renewable solar energy during the period 1994–2013. The theoretical potential of solar radiation was calculated based on a three-dimensional terrain model. The data on global solar radiation from 13 stations within the Silesia region, covering the period 1994–2013, were obtained from the Regional Inspectorate of Environmental Protection in Katowice. The most favourable conditions for the use of solar energy were found at the cities Sosnowiec and Cieszyn. The largest increase in global radiation over the research period was observed in Zabrze. The average annual global radiation ranged between 600–1300 kWh·m−2. Digital Elevation Models (DEM for selected districts of the Silesia region were used to calculate the theoretical potential of global solar radiation. The highest theoretical potential of global radiation was found in the district of Cieszyn, located at the highest altitude.

Regional, Continental, and Global Mobility to an Emerging Economy: The Case of South Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Jenny J.; Sehoole, Chika

2015-01-01

This study examined mobility within the understudied region of southern Africa and particularly, the factors that drive and shape educational migration toward South Africa as a regional, continental, and global destination. Based on a survey administered to international students across seven South African universities, the findings revealed…

Regional amplification of projected changes in extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture-temperature feedbacks

Science.gov (United States)

Vogel, Martha Marie; Orth, René; Cheruy, Frederique; Hagemann, Stefan; Lorenz, Ruth; van den Hurk, Bart; Seneviratne, Sonia Isabelle

2017-04-01

Regional hot extremes are projected to increase more strongly than global mean temperature, with substantially larger changes than 2°C even if global warming is limited to this level. We investigate here the role of soil moisture-temperature feedbacks for this response based on multi-model experiments for the 21st century with either interactive or fixed (late 20th century mean seasonal cycle) soil moisture. We analyze changes in the hottest days in each year in both sets of experiments, relate them to the global mean temperature increase, and investigate physical processes leading to these changes. We find that soil moisture-temperature feedbacks significantly contribute to the amplified warming of hottest days compared to that of global mean temperature. This contribution reaches more than 70% in Central Europe and Central North America and between 42%-52% in Amazonia, Northern Australia and Southern Africa. Soil moisture trends (multi-decadal soil moisture variability) are more important for this response than short-term (e.g. seasonal, interannual) soil moisture variability. These results are relevant for reducing uncertainties in regional temperature projections. Vogel, M.M. et al.,2017. Regional amplification of projected changes in extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture-temperature feedbacks. Geophysical Research Letters, accepted.

Nuclear energy development in the 21st century: Global scenarios and regional trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2010-01-01

The International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO) was launched in 2000, on the basis of a resolution of the IAEA General Conference (GC(44)/RES/21). INPRO helps ensure that sustainable nuclear energy is available in the twenty-first century and seeks to bring together all interested Member States - both technology holders and technology users - to consider joint actions to achieve desired innovations. As of July 2010, 30 countries and the European Commission are members of INPRO. Programme Area B of INPRO, Global Vision - Scenarios and Pathways to Sustainable Nuclear Power Development, is aimed at providing a better understanding of the role of nuclear energy in the context of long term sustainable development. Its objective is to develop global and regional nuclear energy scenarios on the basis of a scientific-technical pathway analysis that lead to a global vision on sustainable nuclear energy development in the twenty-first century, and to support Member States in working towards that vision. This report presents the results of a study undertaken under Programme Area B in INPRO on Nuclear Energy Development in the Twenty-first Century: Global Scenarios and Regional Trends Studies on Nuclear Capacity Growth and Material Flow between Regions. The report does not develop a global vision for nuclear deployment per se, but presents a limited set of technical scenarios of nuclear deployment and considers their implications. It considers a global energy supply system composed of several reactor and fuel cycle types available today and of fast reactors that may be developed in the future to illustrate a possible modelling approach to identify the potential role of interregional transfer of nuclear fuel resources in supporting the global growth of nuclear energy. The study was performed with the participation of sixteen experts from nine INPRO Member States and included a dynamic simulation of material flows in nuclear energy systems using

77 FR 42003 - TA-W-81,263, Chartis Global Services, Inc., a Subsidiary of Chartis, Inc., Regional Processing...

Science.gov (United States)

2012-07-17

... DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Employment and Training Administration TA-W-81,263, Chartis Global Services..., Houston, TX; TA-W-81,263A, Chartis Global Services, Inc., a Subsidiary of Chartis, Inc., Regional... is amending the certification (TA-W-81,263) to add ``Regional Processing Organization'' and to add...

Sensitivity of global and regional terrestrial carbon storage to the direct CO2 effect and climate change based on the CMIP5 model intercomparison.

Science.gov (United States)

Peng, Jing; Dan, Li; Huang, Mei

2014-01-01

Global and regional land carbon storage has been significantly affected by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change. Based on fully coupled climate-carbon-cycle simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we investigate sensitivities of land carbon storage to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change over the world and 21 regions during the 130 years. Overall, the simulations suggest that consistently spatial positive effects of the increasing CO2 concentrations on land carbon storage are expressed with a multi-model averaged value of 1.04 PgC per ppm. The stronger positive values are mainly located in the broad areas of temperate and tropical forest, especially in Amazon basin and western Africa. However, large heterogeneity distributed for sensitivities of land carbon storage to climate change. Climate change causes decrease in land carbon storage in most tropics and the Southern Hemisphere. In these regions, decrease in soil moisture (MRSO) and enhanced drought somewhat contribute to such a decrease accompanied with rising temperature. Conversely, an increase in land carbon storage has been observed in high latitude and altitude regions (e.g., northern Asia and Tibet). The model simulations also suggest that global negative impacts of climate change on land carbon storage are predominantly attributed to decrease in land carbon storage in tropics. Although current warming can lead to an increase in land storage of high latitudes of Northern Hemisphere due to elevated vegetation growth, a risk of exacerbated future climate change may be induced due to release of carbon from tropics.

Sensitivity of global and regional terrestrial carbon storage to the direct CO2 effect and climate change based on the CMIP5 model intercomparison.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jing Peng

Full Text Available Global and regional land carbon storage has been significantly affected by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change. Based on fully coupled climate-carbon-cycle simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5, we investigate sensitivities of land carbon storage to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change over the world and 21 regions during the 130 years. Overall, the simulations suggest that consistently spatial positive effects of the increasing CO2 concentrations on land carbon storage are expressed with a multi-model averaged value of 1.04 PgC per ppm. The stronger positive values are mainly located in the broad areas of temperate and tropical forest, especially in Amazon basin and western Africa. However, large heterogeneity distributed for sensitivities of land carbon storage to climate change. Climate change causes decrease in land carbon storage in most tropics and the Southern Hemisphere. In these regions, decrease in soil moisture (MRSO and enhanced drought somewhat contribute to such a decrease accompanied with rising temperature. Conversely, an increase in land carbon storage has been observed in high latitude and altitude regions (e.g., northern Asia and Tibet. The model simulations also suggest that global negative impacts of climate change on land carbon storage are predominantly attributed to decrease in land carbon storage in tropics. Although current warming can lead to an increase in land storage of high latitudes of Northern Hemisphere due to elevated vegetation growth, a risk of exacerbated future climate change may be induced due to release of carbon from tropics.

Multi-Scale Governance of Sustainable Natural Resource Use—Challenges and Opportunities for Monitoring and Institutional Development at the National and Global Level

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stefan Bringezu

2016-08-01

Full Text Available In a globalized economy, the use of natural resources is determined by the demand of modern production and consumption systems, and by infrastructure development. Sustainable natural resource use will require good governance and management based on sound scientific information, data and indicators. There is a rich literature on natural resource management, yet the national and global scale and macro-economic policy making has been underrepresented. We provide an overview of the scholarly literature on multi-scale governance of natural resources, focusing on the information required by relevant actors from local to global scale. Global natural resource use is largely determined by national, regional, and local policies. We observe that in recent decades, the development of public policies of natural resource use has been fostered by an “inspiration cycle” between the research, policy and statistics community, fostering social learning. Effective natural resource policies require adequate monitoring tools, in particular indicators for the use of materials, energy, land, and water as well as waste and GHG emissions of national economies. We summarize the state-of-the-art of the application of accounting methods and data sources for national material flow accounts and indicators, including territorial and product-life-cycle based approaches. We show how accounts on natural resource use can inform the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs and argue that information on natural resource use, and in particular footprint indicators, will be indispensable for a consistent implementation of the SDGs. We recognize that improving the knowledge base for global natural resource use will require further institutional development including at national and international levels, for which we outline options.

Regression-based approach for testing the association between multi-region haplotype configuration and complex trait

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhao Hongbo

2009-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background It is quite common that the genetic architecture of complex traits involves many genes and their interactions. Therefore, dealing with multiple unlinked genomic regions simultaneously is desirable. Results In this paper we develop a regression-based approach to assess the interactions of haplotypes that belong to different unlinked regions, and we use score statistics to test the null hypothesis of non-genetic association. Additionally, multiple marker combinations at each unlinked region are considered. The multiple tests are settled via the minP approach. The P value of the "best" multi-region multi-marker configuration is corrected via Monte-Carlo simulations. Through simulation studies, we assess the performance of the proposed approach and demonstrate its validity and power in testing for haplotype interaction association. Conclusion Our simulations showed that, for binary trait without covariates, our proposed methods prove to be equal and even more powerful than htr and hapcc which are part of the FAMHAP program. Additionally, our model can be applied to a wider variety of traits and allow adjustment for other covariates. To test the validity, our methods are applied to analyze the association between four unlinked candidate genes and pig meat quality.

New York City Energy-Water Integrated Planning: A Pilot Study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bhatt,V.; Crosson, K. M.; Horak, W.; Reisman, A.

2008-12-16

The New York City Energy-Water Integrated Planning Pilot Study is one of several projects funded by Sandia National Laboratories under the U.S. Department of Energy Energy-Water Nexus Program. These projects are intended to clarify some key issues and research needs identified during the Energy-Water Nexus Roadmapping activities. The objectives of the New York City Pilot Project are twofold: to identify energy-water nexus issues in an established urban area in conjunction with a group of key stakeholders and to define and apply an integrated energy and water decision support tool, as proof-of-concept, to one or more of these issues. During the course of this study, the Brookhaven National Laboratory project team worked very closely with members of a Pilot Project Steering Committee. The Steering Committee members brought a breadth of experience across the energy, water and climate disciplines, and all are well versed in the particular issues faced by an urban environment, and by New York City in particular. The first task was to identify energy-water issues of importance to New York City. This exercise was followed by discussion of the qualities and capabilities that an ideal decision support tool should display to address these issues. The decision was made to start with an existing energy model, the New York City version of the MARKAL model, developed originally at BNL and now used globally by many groups for energy analysis. MARKAL has the virtue of being well-vetted, transparent, and capable of calculating 'material' flows, such as water use by the energy system and energy requirements of water technology. The Steering Committee members defined five scenarios of interest, representing a broad spectrum of New York City energy-water issues. Brookhaven National Laboratory researchers developed a model framework (Water-MARKAL) at the desired level of detail to address the scenarios, and then attempted to gather the New York City-specific information

Multi-region fuzzy logic controller with local PID controllers for U-tube steam generator in nuclear power plant

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Puchalski Bartosz

2015-12-01

Full Text Available In the paper, analysis of multi-region fuzzy logic controller with local PID controllers for steam generator of pressurized water reactor (PWR working in wide range of thermal power changes is presented. The U-tube steam generator has a nonlinear dynamics depending on thermal power transferred from coolant of the primary loop of the PWR plant. Control of water level in the steam generator conducted by a traditional PID controller which is designed for nominal power level of the nuclear reactor operates insufficiently well in wide range of operational conditions, especially at the low thermal power level. Thus the steam generator is often controlled manually by operators. Incorrect water level in the steam generator may lead to accidental shutdown of the nuclear reactor and consequently financial losses. In the paper a comparison of proposed multi region fuzzy logic controller and traditional PID controllers designed only for nominal condition is presented. The gains of the local PID controllers have been derived by solving appropriate optimization tasks with the cost function in a form of integrated squared error (ISE criterion. In both cases, a model of steam generator which is readily available in literature was used for control algorithms synthesis purposes. The proposed multi-region fuzzy logic controller and traditional PID controller were subjected to broad-based simulation tests in rapid prototyping software - Matlab/Simulink. These tests proved the advantage of multi-region fuzzy logic controller with local PID controllers over its traditional counterpart.

A Systematic Multi-Time Scale Solution for Regional Power Grid Operation

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, W. J.; Liu, Z. G.; Cheng, T.; Hu, B. Q.; Liu, X. Z.; Zhou, Y. F.

2017-10-01

Many aspects need to be taken into consideration in a regional grid while making schedule plans. In this paper, a systematic multi-time scale solution for regional power grid operation considering large scale renewable energy integration and Ultra High Voltage (UHV) power transmission is proposed. In the time scale aspect, we discuss the problem from month, week, day-ahead, within-day to day-behind, and the system also contains multiple generator types including thermal units, hydro-plants, wind turbines and pumped storage stations. The 9 subsystems of the scheduling system are described, and their functions and relationships are elaborated. The proposed system has been constructed in a provincial power grid in Central China, and the operation results further verified the effectiveness of the system.

Decadal changes in global surface NOx emissions from multi-constituent satellite data assimilation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Miyazaki

2017-01-01

underestimation of soil NOx sources in the emission inventories. Despite the large trends observed for individual regions, the global total emission is almost constant between 2005 (47.9 Tg N yr−1 and 2014 (47.5 Tg N yr−1.

Multi-disciplinary scientists as global change adaptation anchors: Filling the gaps in the Boundary Organization paradigm

Science.gov (United States)

Terando, A. J.; Collazo, J.

2017-12-01

Boundary organizations, entities that facilitate the co-production and translation of scientific research in decision making processes, have been promoted as a means to assist global change adaptation, particularly in the areas of landscape conservation and natural resource management. However, scientists can and often still must perform a similar role and act as anchoring agents within wicked adaptation problems that involve a myriad of actors, values, scientific uncertainties, governance structures, and multidisciplinary research needs. We illustrate one such case study in Puerto Rico's Bosque Modelo (Model Forest) where we discuss an ongoing scientific effort to undertake a multi-objective landscape conservation design project that intersects with the Bosque Modelo geography and goals. Perspectives are provided from two research ecologists, one with a background in terrestrial ecology who has worked at the intersection of science, conservation, and government for over 30 years, and the other with a multi-disciplinary background in earth sciences, climatology, and terrestrial ecology. We frame our discussion around the learning process that accompanies the development of global change scenarios that are both useful and useable for a wide spectrum of scientists, and the likelihood that scientifically informed adaptive management actions will ultimately be implemented in this complex and changing landscape.

Global and regional climate change: new evidences between two IPCC reports

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mika, J. [Eszterhazy Karoly College, Budapest (Hungary). Dept. of Geography

2011-07-01

The climate of our planet has never been constant, but the recent changes are by two orders of magnitude faster than the natural changes since the appearance of anthropogenic effects. The discernable global warming started in the 19th century and after speeding up in the 20th century, it has reached about 0.8 K. This fact and the realization of the likely reasons for the changes, plus rapid development of computer technology have resulted in systematic investigations of climate science. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) finalized its Fourth Assessment Report in 2007. The present paper suveys some recent moments of global and regional climate change issued after the Report. Even the economic crisis was not strong enough to deflect the anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing for more than one year. It tends to develop at the upper edge of the IPCC (2007) projection band of uncertainties. The part of the emitted carbon dioxide remaining in the atmosphere is increasing due to weakening of both the biospheric- and the oceanic sinks of this greenhouse gas. The new radiation balance estimations must admit the imbalance between the atmosphere and the oceans indicating the fact that the greenhouse warming definitely takes place. The year 2010 became most likely the warmest one on the global temperature record. The sea-level rise also follows the most rapid track among the foreseen scenarios. In the meantime modelling effort to better estimate regional features of the changes also develop in their full strength. The ENSEMBLES Project ended in December 2009 and published a lot of maps with 25 km model resolution. These results, however, do not show convergence in the estimations for many regions, including Central Europe.

Aerosol-cloud interactions from urban, regional to global scales

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Yuan

2015-01-01

The studies in this dissertation aim at advancing our scientific understandings about physical processes involved in the aerosol-cloud-precipitation interaction and quantitatively assessing the impacts of aerosols on the cloud systems with diverse scales over the globe on the basis of the observational data analysis and various modeling studies. As recognized in the Fifth Assessment Report by the Inter-government Panel on Climate Change, the magnitude of radiative forcing by atmospheric aerosols is highly uncertain, representing the largest uncertainty in projections of future climate by anthropogenic activities. By using a newly implemented cloud microphysical scheme in the cloud-resolving model, the thesis assesses aerosol-cloud interaction for distinct weather systems, ranging from individual cumulus to mesoscale convective systems. This thesis also introduces a novel hierarchical modeling approach that solves a long outstanding mismatch between simulations by regional weather models and global climate models in the climate modeling community. More importantly, the thesis provides key scientific solutions to several challenging questions in climate science, including the global impacts of the Asian pollution. As scientists wrestle with the complexities of climate change in response to varied anthropogenic forcing, perhaps no problem is more challenging than the understanding of the impacts of atmospheric aerosols from air pollution on clouds and the global circulation.

Aerosol-cloud interactions from urban, regional to global scales

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Yuan [California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA (United States). Seismological Lab.

2015-10-01

The studies in this dissertation aim at advancing our scientific understandings about physical processes involved in the aerosol-cloud-precipitation interaction and quantitatively assessing the impacts of aerosols on the cloud systems with diverse scales over the globe on the basis of the observational data analysis and various modeling studies. As recognized in the Fifth Assessment Report by the Inter-government Panel on Climate Change, the magnitude of radiative forcing by atmospheric aerosols is highly uncertain, representing the largest uncertainty in projections of future climate by anthropogenic activities. By using a newly implemented cloud microphysical scheme in the cloud-resolving model, the thesis assesses aerosol-cloud interaction for distinct weather systems, ranging from individual cumulus to mesoscale convective systems. This thesis also introduces a novel hierarchical modeling approach that solves a long outstanding mismatch between simulations by regional weather models and global climate models in the climate modeling community. More importantly, the thesis provides key scientific solutions to several challenging questions in climate science, including the global impacts of the Asian pollution. As scientists wrestle with the complexities of climate change in response to varied anthropogenic forcing, perhaps no problem is more challenging than the understanding of the impacts of atmospheric aerosols from air pollution on clouds and the global circulation.

An analog computer method for solving flux distribution problems in multi region nuclear reactors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Radanovic, L; Bingulac, S; Lazarevic, B; Matausek, M [Boris Kidric Institute of Nuclear Sciences Vinca, Beograd (Yugoslavia)

1963-04-15

The paper describes a method developed for determining criticality conditions and plotting flux distribution curves in multi region nuclear reactors on a standard analog computer. The method, which is based on the one-dimensional two group treatment, avoids iterative procedures normally used for boundary value problems and is practically insensitive to errors in initial conditions. The amount of analog equipment required is reduced to a minimum and is independent of the number of core regions and reflectors. (author)

Measuring the environmental sustainability performance of global supply chains: A multi-regional input-output analysis for carbon, sulphur oxide and water footprints.

Science.gov (United States)

Acquaye, Adolf; Feng, Kuishuang; Oppon, Eunice; Salhi, Said; Ibn-Mohammed, Taofeeq; Genovese, Andrea; Hubacek, Klaus

2017-02-01

Measuring the performance of environmentally sustainable supply chains instead of chain constitute has become a challenge despite the convergence of the underlining principles of sustainable supply chain management. This challenge is exacerbated by the fact that supply chains are inherently dynamic and complex and also because multiple measures can be used to characterize performances. By identifying some of the critical issues in the literature regarding performance measurements, this paper contributes to the existing body of literature by adopting an environmental performance measurement approach for economic sectors. It uses economic sectors and evaluates them on a sectoral level in specific countries as well as part of the Global Value Chain based on the established multi-regional input-output (MRIO) modeling framework. The MRIO model has been used to calculate direct and indirect (that is supply chain or upstream) environmental effects such as CO 2 , SO 2 , biodiversity, water consumption and pollution to name just a few of the applications. In this paper we use MRIO analysis to calculate emissions and resource consumption intensities and footprints, direct and indirect impacts, and net emission flows between countries. These are exemplified by using carbon emissions, sulphur oxide emissions and water use in two highly polluting industries; Electricity production and Chemical industry in 33 countries, including the EU-27, Brazil, India and China, the USA, Canada and Japan from 1995 to 2009. Some of the highlights include: On average, direct carbon emissions in the electricity sector across all 27 member states of the EU was estimated to be 1368 million tons and indirect carbon emissions to be 470.7 million tons per year representing 25.6% of the EU-27 total carbon emissions related to this sector. It was also observed that from 2004, sulphur oxide emissions intensities in electricity production in India and China have remained relatively constant at about 62

Multi-hazard national-level risk assessment in Africa using global approaches

Science.gov (United States)

Fraser, Stuart; Jongman, Brenden; Simpson, Alanna; Murnane, Richard

2016-04-01

In recent years Sub-Saharan Africa has been characterized by unprecedented opportunity for transformation and sustained growth. However, natural disasters such as droughts, floods, cyclones, earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions and extreme temperatures cause significant economic and human losses, and major development challenges. Quantitative disaster risk assessments are an important basis for governments to understand disaster risk in their country, and to develop effective risk management and risk financing solutions. However, the data-scarce nature of many Sub-Saharan African countries as well as a lack of financing for risk assessments has long prevented detailed analytics. Recent advances in globally applicable disaster risk modelling practices and data availability offer new opportunities. In December 2013 the European Union approved a € 60 million contribution to support the development of an analytical basis for risk financing and to accelerate the effective implementation of a comprehensive disaster risk reduction. The World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) was selected as the implementing partner of the Program for Result Area 5: the "Africa Disaster Risk Assessment and Financing Program." As part of this effort, the GFDRR is overseeing the production of national-level multi-hazard risk profiles for a range of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, using a combination of national and global datasets and state-of-the-art hazard and risk assessment methodologies. In this presentation, we will highlight the analytical approach behind these assessments, and show results for the first five countries for which the assessment has been completed (Kenya, Uganda, Senegal, Niger and Ethiopia). The presentation will also demonstrate the visualization of the risk assessments into understandable and visually attractive risk profile documents.

Multi-scale and multi-physics model of the uterine smooth muscle with mechanotransduction.

Science.gov (United States)

Yochum, Maxime; Laforêt, Jérémy; Marque, Catherine

2018-02-01

Preterm labor is an important public health problem. However, the efficiency of the uterine muscle during labor is complex and still poorly understood. This work is a first step towards a model of the uterine muscle, including its electrical and mechanical components, to reach a better understanding of the uterus synchronization. This model is proposed to investigate, by simulation, the possible role of mechanotransduction for the global synchronization of the uterus. The electrical diffusion indeed explains the local propagation of contractile activity, while the tissue stretching may play a role in the synchronization of distant parts of the uterine muscle. This work proposes a multi-physics (electrical, mechanical) and multi-scales (cell, tissue, whole uterus) model, which is applied to a realistic uterus 3D mesh. This model includes electrical components at different scales: generation of action potentials at the cell level, electrical diffusion at the tissue level. It then links these electrical events to the mechanical behavior, at the cellular level (via the intracellular calcium concentration), by simulating the force generated by each active cell. It thus computes an estimation of the intra uterine pressure (IUP) by integrating the forces generated by each active cell at the whole uterine level, as well as the stretching of the tissue (by using a viscoelastic law for the behavior of the tissue). It finally includes at the cellular level stretch activated channels (SACs) that permit to create a loop between the mechanical and the electrical behavior (mechanotransduction). The simulation of different activated regions of the uterus, which in this first "proof of concept" case are electrically isolated, permits the activation of inactive regions through the stretching (induced by the electrically active regions) computed at the whole organ scale. This permits us to evidence the role of the mechanotransduction in the global synchronization of the uterus. The

Stabilizing greenhouse gases. Global and regional consequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alcamo, J.; Krol, M.; Leemans, R.

1995-01-01

This paper assesses the environmental consequences of two targets for CO 2 stabilization: 350 ppm by the year 2150 (367 ppm by 2100), and 450 ppm by 2100. As a tool for this investigation we use the IMAGE 2 integrated model of climate change. It was found that these targets lead to much lower regional impacts on crop productivity, natural vegetation, and sea level rise as compared to the baseline case. Nevertheless some negative impacts do occur, and to further reduce these impacts would require more stringent stabilization targets. It was also found that to achieve these stabilization targets in the atmosphere, global emissions should not substantially increase at any time in the future, and eventually they must be significantly reduced. 8 figs., 1 tab., 7 refs., 1 appendix

Global multi-scale segmentation of continental and coastal waters from the watersheds to the continental margins

KAUST Repository

Laruelle, G. G.; Dü rr, H. H.; Lauerwald, R.; Hartmann, J.; Slomp, C. P.; Regnier, P. A. G.

2012-01-01

files. Our analysis provides detailed insights into the distributions of coastal and continental shelf areas and how they connect with incoming riverine fluxes. The segmentation is also used to re-evaluate the global estuarine CO2 flux at the air–water interface combining global and regional average emission rates derived from local studies.

Inter-subjectivity and Domestication in the Making of a Global Region: Territorialization of Salmon in the Chilean Patagonia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gustavo Blanco Wells

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This article examines transformations in the Chilean Patagonia, a region that has become a world leader in Salmon production for global markets. Employing ethnographic methods, this study examines the possibilities of considering inter-subjectivities in the processes of conforming important regions in the global production of foods in contrast to some perspectives that emphasize inter-objectivity in analyzing human and non-human relations. In a complex and globalized world, assembly theory permits us to understand how forms of bio-power stimulate regional transformations that then generate new relationships between life, agency and nature. The analysis focuses on experiments, encounters and affects, decentering conventional perspectives about the domestication of species, regional development and food production. It opens a debate about the potentialities and limits of non-lineal interpretations of reality.

Geomorphology from space: A global overview of regional landforms

Science.gov (United States)

Short, Nicholas M. (Editor); Blair, Robert W., Jr. (Editor)

1986-01-01

This book, Geomorphology from Space: A Global Overview of Regional Landforms, was published by NASA STIF as a successor to the two earlier works on the same subject: Mission to Earth: LANDSAT views the Earth, and ERTS-1: A New Window on Our Planet. The purpose of the book is threefold: first, to serve as a stimulant in rekindling interest in descriptive geomorphology and landforms analysis at the regional scale; second, to introduce the community of geologists, geographers, and others who analyze the Earth's surficial forms to the practical value of space-acquired remotely sensed data in carrying out their research and applications; and third, to foster more scientific collaboration between geomorphologists who are studying the Earth's landforms and astrogeologists who analyze landforms on other planets and moons in the solar system, thereby strengthening the growing field of comparative planetology.

Analyzing Regional Climate Change in Africa in a 1.5, 2, and 3°C Global Warming World

Science.gov (United States)

Weber, T.; Haensler, A.; Rechid, D.; Pfeifer, S.; Eggert, B.; Jacob, D.

2018-04-01

At the 21st session of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP21) in Paris, an agreement to strengthen the effort to limit the global temperature increase well below 2°C was decided. However, even if global warming is limited, some regions might still be substantially affected by climate change, especially for continents like Africa where the socio-economic conditions are strongly linked to the climatic conditions. In the paper we will discuss the analysis of indices assigned to the sectors health, agriculture, and infrastructure in a 1.5, 2, and 3°C global warming world for the African continent. For this analysis an ensemble of 10 different general circulation model-regional climate model simulations conducted in the framework of the COordinated Downscaling EXperiment for Africa was investigated. The results show that the African continent, in particular the regions between 15°S and 15°N, has to expect an increase in hot nights and longer and more frequent heat waves even if the global temperature will be kept below 2°C. These effects intensify if the global mean temperature will exceed the 2°C threshold. Moreover, the daily rainfall intensity is expected to increase toward higher global warming scenarios and will affect especially the African Sub-Saharan coastal regions.

A comparative review of multi-risk modelling methodologies for climate change adaptation in mountain regions

Science.gov (United States)

Terzi, Stefano; Torresan, Silvia; Schneiderbauer, Stefan

2017-04-01

Keywords: Climate change, mountain regions, multi-risk assessment, climate change adaptation. Climate change has already led to a wide range of impacts on the environment, the economy and society. Adaptation actions are needed to cope with the impacts that have already occurred (e.g. storms, glaciers melting, floods, droughts) and to prepare for future scenarios of climate change. Mountain environment is particularly vulnerable to the climate changes due to its exposure to recent climate warming (e.g. water regime changes, thawing of permafrost) and due to the high degree of specialization of both natural and human systems (e.g. alpine species, valley population density, tourism-based economy). As a consequence, the mountain local governments are encouraged to undertake territorial governance policies to climate change, considering multi-risks and opportunities for the mountain economy and identifying the best portfolio of adaptation strategies. This study aims to provide a literature review of available qualitative and quantitative tools, methodological guidelines and best practices to conduct multi-risk assessments in the mountain environment within the context of climate change. We analyzed multi-risk modelling and assessment methods applied in alpine regions (e.g. event trees, Bayesian Networks, Agent Based Models) in order to identify key concepts (exposure, resilience, vulnerability, risk, adaptive capacity), climatic drivers, cause-effect relationships and socio-ecological systems to be integrated in a comprehensive framework. The main outcomes of the review, including a comparison of existing techniques based on different criteria (e.g. scale of analysis, targeted questions, level of complexity) and a snapshot of the developed multi-risk framework for climate change adaptation will be here presented and discussed.

Temperature Changes In Poland In 21st Century – Results Of Global Simulation And Regional Downscaling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pilarski Michał

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The main source of information about future climate changes are the results of numerical simulations performed in scientific institutions around the world. Present projections from global circulation models (GCMs are too coarse and are only usefulness for the world, hemisphere or continent spatial analysis. The low horizontal resolution of global models (100–200 km, does not allow to assess climate changes at regional or local scales. Therefore it is necessary to lead studies concerning how to detail the GCMs information. The problem of information transfer from the GCMs to higher spatial scale solve: dynamical and statistical downscaling. The dynamical downscaling method based on “nesting” global information in a regional models (RCMs, which solve the equations of motion and the thermodynamic laws in a small spatial scale (10–50 km. However, the statistical downscaling models (SDMs identify the relationship between large-scale variable (predictor and small-scale variable (predictand implementing linear regression. The main goal of the study was to compare the global model scenarios of thermal condition in Poland in XXI century with the more accurate statistical and dynamical regional models outcomes. Generally studies confirmed usefulness of statistical downscaling to detail information from GCMs. Basic results present that regional models captured local aspects of thermal conditions variability especially in coastal zone.

Hybrid surrogate-model-based multi-fidelity efficient global optimization applied to helicopter blade design

Science.gov (United States)

Ariyarit, Atthaphon; Sugiura, Masahiko; Tanabe, Yasutada; Kanazaki, Masahiro

2018-06-01

A multi-fidelity optimization technique by an efficient global optimization process using a hybrid surrogate model is investigated for solving real-world design problems. The model constructs the local deviation using the kriging method and the global model using a radial basis function. The expected improvement is computed to decide additional samples that can improve the model. The approach was first investigated by solving mathematical test problems. The results were compared with optimization results from an ordinary kriging method and a co-kriging method, and the proposed method produced the best solution. The proposed method was also applied to aerodynamic design optimization of helicopter blades to obtain the maximum blade efficiency. The optimal shape obtained by the proposed method achieved performance almost equivalent to that obtained using the high-fidelity, evaluation-based single-fidelity optimization. Comparing all three methods, the proposed method required the lowest total number of high-fidelity evaluation runs to obtain a converged solution.

National, regional and global mortality due to alcoholic cardiomyopathy in 2015.

Science.gov (United States)

Manthey, Jakob; Probst, Charlotte; Rylett, Margaret; Rehm, Jürgen

2018-03-13

(1) A comprehensive mortality assessment of alcoholic cardiomyopathy (ACM) and (2) examination of under-reporting using vital statistics data. A modelling study estimated sex-specific mortality rates for each country, which were subsequently aggregated by region and globally. Input data on ACM mortality were obtained from death registries for n=91 countries. For n=99 countries, mortality estimates were predicted using aggregate alcohol data from WHO publications. Descriptive additional analyses illustrated the scope of under-reporting. In 2015, there were an estimated 25 997 (95% CI 17 385 to 49 096) global deaths from ACM. This translates into 6.3% (95% CI 4.2% to 11.9%) of all global deaths from cardiomyopathy being caused by alcohol. There were large regional variations with regard to mortality burden. While the majority of ACM deaths were found in Russia (19 749 deaths, 76.0% of all ACM deaths), for about one-third of countries (n=57) less than one ACM death was found. Under-reporting was identified for nearly every second country with civil registration data. Overall, two out of three global ACM deaths might be misclassified. The variation of ACM mortality burden is greater than for other alcohol-attributable diseases, and partly may be the result of stigma and lack of detection. Misclassification of ACM fatalities is a systematic phenomenon, which may be caused by low resources, lacking standards and stigma associated with alcohol-use disorders. Clinical management may be improved by including routine alcohol assessments. This could contribute to decrease misclassifications and to provide the best available treatment for affected patients. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

INDUSTRIAL REGIONS OF RUSSIA IN THE CONDITIONS OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B.L. Kuznetsov

2009-09-01

Full Text Available This article considers reasons and consequences of the global economic crisis from the point of view of Russian regions development. The focus of an article is on the socio-economic situation of the Republic of Tatarstan – the territory with a large machine-building industry. Authors explain a need for the clear and efficient industrial policy both at the federal and regional levels of government. It should be oriented for the innovative development, resource saving and import replacement.

Analysis of Tourism Resource Dependency on Collaboration among Local Governments in the Multi-Regional Tourism Development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ha Dong-Won

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to derive the multidimensional attributes of resource dependency of local governments in multi-regional tourism development. The questionnaire was designed based on resource dependence theory and related literature, and five factors of resource dependency were derived by analysis of the questionnaire for the civil servants who participated in the Jirisan area tourism development project which is a representative multi-regional tourism development project of Korea. The measured values of the derived possession, importance, discretion, alternative, and connection were found in various ways according to the project characteristics such as project scale and visitors in the Jirisan area tourism development project. This shows that a variety of variables have an effect on resource dependency.

Meningococcal disease in the Asia-Pacific region: Findings and recommendations from the Global Meningococcal Initiative.

Science.gov (United States)

Borrow, Ray; Lee, Jin-Soo; Vázquez, Julio A; Enwere, Godwin; Taha, Muhamed-Kheir; Kamiya, Hajime; Kim, Hwang Min; Jo, Dae Sun

2016-11-21

The Global Meningococcal Initiative (GMI) is a global expert group that includes scientists, clinicians, and public health officials with a wide range of specialties. The purpose of the Initiative is to promote the global prevention of meningococcal disease (MD) through education, research, and cooperation. The first Asia-Pacific regional meeting was held in November 2014. The GMI reviewed the epidemiology of MD, surveillance, and prevention strategies, and outbreak control practices from participating countries in the Asia-Pacific region.Although, in general, MD is underreported in this region, serogroup A disease is most prominent in low-income countries such as India and the Philippines, while Taiwan, Japan, and Korea reported disease from serogroups C, W, and Y. China has a mixed epidemiology of serogroups A, B, C, and W. Perspectives from countries outside of the region were also provided to provide insight into lessons learnt. Based on the available data and meeting discussions, a number of challenges and data gaps were identified and, as a consequence, several recommendations were formulated: strengthen surveillance; improve diagnosis, typing and case reporting; standardize case definitions; develop guidelines for outbreak management; and promote awareness of MD among healthcare professionals, public health officials, and the general public. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Raft cultivation area extraction from high resolution remote sensing imagery by fusing multi-scale region-line primitive association features

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Min; Cui, Qi; Wang, Jie; Ming, Dongping; Lv, Guonian

2017-01-01

In this paper, we first propose several novel concepts for object-based image analysis, which include line-based shape regularity, line density, and scale-based best feature value (SBV), based on the region-line primitive association framework (RLPAF). We then propose a raft cultivation area (RCA) extraction method for high spatial resolution (HSR) remote sensing imagery based on multi-scale feature fusion and spatial rule induction. The proposed method includes the following steps: (1) Multi-scale region primitives (segments) are obtained by image segmentation method HBC-SEG, and line primitives (straight lines) are obtained by phase-based line detection method. (2) Association relationships between regions and lines are built based on RLPAF, and then multi-scale RLPAF features are extracted and SBVs are selected. (3) Several spatial rules are designed to extract RCAs within sea waters after land and water separation. Experiments show that the proposed method can successfully extract different-shaped RCAs from HR images with good performance.

Assessing the influence of watershed characteristics on chlorophyll a in waterbodies at global and regional scales

Science.gov (United States)

Woelmer, Whitney; Kao, Yu-Chun; Bunnell, David B.; Deines, Andrew M.; Bennion, David; Rogers, Mark W.; Brooks, Colin N.; Sayers, Michael J.; Banach, David M.; Grimm, Amanda G.; Shuchman, Robert A.

2016-01-01

Prediction of primary production of lentic water bodies (i.e., lakes and reservoirs) is valuable to researchers and resource managers alike, but is very rarely done at the global scale. With the development of remote sensing technologies, it is now feasible to gather large amounts of data across the world, including understudied and remote regions. To determine which factors were most important in explaining the variation of chlorophyll a (Chl-a), an indicator of primary production in water bodies, at global and regional scales, we first developed a geospatial database of 227 water bodies and watersheds with corresponding Chl-a, nutrient, hydrogeomorphic, and climate data. Then we used a generalized additive modeling approach and developed model selection criteria to select models that most parsimoniously related Chl-a to predictor variables for all 227 water bodies and for 51 lakes in the Laurentian Great Lakes region in the data set. Our best global model contained two hydrogeomorphic variables (water body surface area and the ratio of watershed to water body surface area) and a climate variable (average temperature in the warmest model selection criteria to select models that most parsimoniously related Chl-a to predictor variables quarter) and explained ~ 30% of variation in Chl-a. Our regional model contained one hydrogeomorphic variable (flow accumulation) and the same climate variable, but explained substantially more variation (58%). Our results indicate that a regional approach to watershed modeling may be more informative to predicting Chl-a, and that nearly a third of global variability in Chl-a may be explained using hydrogeomorphic and climate variables.

Impact of global climate change on regional air quality: Introduction to the thematic issue

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vautard, R.; Hauglustaine, D.

2007-01-01

Despite the major international efforts devoted to the understanding and to the future estimate of global climate change and its impact on regional scale processes, the evolution of the atmospheric composition in a changing climate is far to be understood. In particular, the future evolution of the concentration of near-surface pollutants determining air quality at a scale affecting human health and ecosystems is a subject of intense scientific research. This thematic issue reviews the current scientific knowledge of the consequences of global climate change on regional air quality and its related impact on the biosphere and on human mortality. This article provides a presentation of the key issues, summarizes the current knowledge, and introduces the thematic issue. (authors)

Global Disparities Since 1800: Trends and Regional Patterns

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Shahid Alam

2015-08-01

Full Text Available This paper reviews the growing body of evidence on the relative economic standing of different regions of the world in the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries. In general, it does not find support for Euro-centric claims regarding Western Europe’s early economic lead. The Eurocentric claims are based primarily on estimates of per capita income, which are plagued by conceptual problems, make demands on historical data that are generally unavailable, and use questionable assumptions to reconstruct early per capita income. A careful examination of these conjectural estimates of per capita income, however, does not support claims that Western Europe had a substantial lead over the rest of the world at the beginning of the nineteenth century. An examination of several alternative indices of living standards in the late eighteenth or early nineteenth centuries—such as real wages, labor productivity in agriculture, and urbanization—also fails to confirm claims of European superiority. In addition, this paper examines the progress of global disparities—including the presence of regional patterns—using estimates of per capita income.

Deglaciation in the tropical Indian Ocean driven by interplay between the regional monsoon and global teleconnections

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Saraswat, R.; Lea, D.W.; Nigam, R.; Mackensen, A.; Naik, Dinesh K.

High resolution climate records of the ice age terminations from monsoon-dominated regions reveal the interplay of regional and global driving forces. Speleothem records from Chinese caves indicate that glacial terminations were interrupted...

Forty years of improvements in European air quality: regional policy-industry interactions with global impacts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Crippa

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The EDGARv4.3.1 (Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research global anthropogenic emissions inventory of gaseous (SO2, NOx, CO, non-methane volatile organic compounds and NH3 and particulate (PM10, PM2.5, black and organic carbon air pollutants for the period 1970–2010 is used to develop retrospective air pollution emissions scenarios to quantify the roles and contributions of changes in energy consumption and efficiency, technology progress and end-of-pipe emission reduction measures and their resulting impact on health and crop yields at European and global scale. The reference EDGARv4.3.1 emissions include observed and reported changes in activity data, fuel consumption and air pollution abatement technologies over the past 4 decades, combined with Tier 1 and region-specific Tier 2 emission factors. Two further retrospective scenarios assess the interplay of policy and industry. The highest emission STAG_TECH scenario assesses the impact of the technology and end-of-pipe reduction measures in the European Union, by considering historical fuel consumption, along with a stagnation of technology with constant emission factors since 1970, and assuming no further abatement measures and improvement imposed by European emission standards. The lowest emission STAG_ENERGY scenario evaluates the impact of increased fuel consumption by considering unchanged energy consumption since the year 1970, but assuming the technological development, end-of-pipe reductions, fuel mix and energy efficiency of 2010. Our scenario analysis focuses on the three most important and most regulated sectors (power generation, manufacturing industry and road transport, which are subject to multi-pollutant European Union Air Quality regulations. Stagnation of technology and air pollution reduction measures at 1970 levels would have led to 129 % (or factor 2.3 higher SO2, 71 % higher NOx and 69 % higher PM2.5 emissions in Europe (EU27, demonstrating the large

Tracking the Global Distribution of Persistent Organic Pollutants Accounting for E-Waste Exports to Developing Regions.

Science.gov (United States)

Breivik, Knut; Armitage, James M; Wania, Frank; Sweetman, Andrew J; Jones, Kevin C

2016-01-19

Elevated concentrations of various industrial-use Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs), such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), have been reported in some developing areas in subtropical and tropical regions known to be destinations of e-waste. We used a recent inventory of the global generation and exports of e-waste to develop various global scale emission scenarios for industrial-use organic contaminants (IUOCs). For representative IUOCs (RIUOCs), only hypothetical emissions via passive volatilization from e-waste were considered whereas for PCBs, historical emissions throughout the chemical life-cycle (i.e., manufacturing, use, disposal) were included. The environmental transport and fate of RIUOCs and PCBs were then simulated using the BETR Global 2.0 model. Export of e-waste is expected to increase and sustain global emissions beyond the baseline scenario, which assumes no export. A comparison between model predictions and observations for PCBs in selected recipient regions generally suggests a better agreement when exports are accounted for. This study may be the first to integrate the global transport of IUOCs in waste with their long-range transport in air and water. The results call for integrated chemical management strategies on a global scale.

Impacts of global, regional, and sectoral black carbon emission reductions on surface air quality and human mortality

Science.gov (United States)

Anenberg, S. C.; Talgo, K.; Arunachalam, S.; Dolwick, P.; Jang, C.; West, J. J.

2011-07-01

As a component of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), black carbon (BC) is associated with premature human mortality. BC also affects climate by absorbing solar radiation and reducing planetary albedo. Several studies have examined the climate impacts of BC emissions, but the associated health impacts have been studied less extensively. Here, we examine the surface PM2.5 and premature mortality impacts of halving anthropogenic BC emissions globally and individually from eight world regions and three major economic sectors. We use a global chemical transport model, MOZART-4, to simulate PM2.5 concentrations and a health impact function to calculate premature cardiopulmonary and lung cancer deaths. We estimate that halving global anthropogenic BC emissions reduces outdoor population-weighted average PM2.5 by 542 ng m-3 (1.8 %) and avoids 157 000 (95 % confidence interval, 120 000-194 000) annual premature deaths globally, with the vast majority occurring within the source region. Most of these avoided deaths can be achieved by halving emissions in East Asia (China; 54 %), followed by South Asia (India; 31 %), however South Asian emissions have 50 % greater mortality impacts per unit BC emitted than East Asian emissions. Globally, halving residential, industrial, and transportation emissions contributes 47 %, 35 %, and 15 % to the avoided deaths from halving all anthropogenic BC emissions. These contributions are 1.2, 1.2, and 0.6 times each sector's portion of global BC emissions, owing to the degree of co-location with population globally. We find that reducing BC emissions increases regional SO4 concentrations by up to 28 % of the magnitude of the regional BC concentration reductions, due to reduced absorption of radiation that drives photochemistry. Impacts of residential BC emissions are likely underestimated since indoor PM2.5 exposure is excluded. We estimate ∼8 times more avoided deaths when BC and organic carbon (OC) emissions are halved together, suggesting

DisoMCS: Accurately Predicting Protein Intrinsically Disordered Regions Using a Multi-Class Conservative Score Approach.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhiheng Wang

Full Text Available The precise prediction of protein intrinsically disordered regions, which play a crucial role in biological procedures, is a necessary prerequisite to further the understanding of the principles and mechanisms of protein function. Here, we propose a novel predictor, DisoMCS, which is a more accurate predictor of protein intrinsically disordered regions. The DisoMCS bases on an original multi-class conservative score (MCS obtained by sequence-order/disorder alignment. Initially, near-disorder regions are defined on fragments located at both the terminus of an ordered region connecting a disordered region. Then the multi-class conservative score is generated by sequence alignment against a known structure database and represented as order, near-disorder and disorder conservative scores. The MCS of each amino acid has three elements: order, near-disorder and disorder profiles. Finally, the MCS is exploited as features to identify disordered regions in sequences. DisoMCS utilizes a non-redundant data set as the training set, MCS and predicted secondary structure as features, and a conditional random field as the classification algorithm. In predicted near-disorder regions a residue is determined as an order or a disorder according to the optimized decision threshold. DisoMCS was evaluated by cross-validation, large-scale prediction, independent tests and CASP (Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction tests. All results confirmed that DisoMCS was very competitive in terms of accuracy of prediction when compared with well-established publicly available disordered region predictors. It also indicated our approach was more accurate when a query has higher homologous with the knowledge database.The DisoMCS is available at http://cal.tongji.edu.cn/disorder/.

Description and Evaluation of IAP-AACM: A Global-regional Aerosol Chemistry Model for the Earth System Model CAS-ESM

Science.gov (United States)

Wei, Y.; Chen, X.

2017-12-01

We present a first description and evaluation of the IAP Atmospheric Aerosol Chemistry Model (IAP-AACM) which has been integrated into the earth system model CAS-ESM. In this way it is possible to research into interaction of clouds and aerosol by its two-way coupling with the IAP Atmospheric General Circulation Model (IAP-AGCM). The model has a nested global-regional grid based on the Global Environmental Atmospheric Transport Model (GEATM) and the Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System (NAQPMS). The AACM provides two optional gas chemistry schemes, the CBM-Z gas chemistry as well as a sulfur oxidize box designed specifically for the CAS-ESM. Now the model driven by AGCM has been applied to a 1-year simulation of tropospheric chemistry both on global and regional scales for 2014, and been evaluated against various observation datasets, including aerosol precursor gas concentration, aerosol mass and number concentrations. Furthermore, global budgets in AACM are compared with other global aerosol models. Generally, the AACM simulations are within the range of other global aerosol model predictions, and the model has a reasonable agreement with observations of gases and particles concentration both on global and regional scales.

Standardized Access and Processing of Multi-Source Earth Observation Time-Series Data within a Regional Data Middleware

Science.gov (United States)

Eberle, J.; Schmullius, C.

2017-12-01

Increasing archives of global satellite data present a new challenge to handle multi-source satellite data in a user-friendly way. Any user is confronted with different data formats and data access services. In addition the handling of time-series data is complex as an automated processing and execution of data processing steps is needed to supply the user with the desired product for a specific area of interest. In order to simplify the access to data archives of various satellite missions and to facilitate the subsequent processing, a regional data and processing middleware has been developed. The aim of this system is to provide standardized and web-based interfaces to multi-source time-series data for individual regions on Earth. For further use and analysis uniform data formats and data access services are provided. Interfaces to data archives of the sensor MODIS (NASA) as well as the satellites Landsat (USGS) and Sentinel (ESA) have been integrated in the middleware. Various scientific algorithms, such as the calculation of trends and breakpoints of time-series data, can be carried out on the preprocessed data on the basis of uniform data management. Jupyter Notebooks are linked to the data and further processing can be conducted directly on the server using Python and the statistical language R. In addition to accessing EO data, the middleware is also used as an intermediary between the user and external databases (e.g., Flickr, YouTube). Standardized web services as specified by OGC are provided for all tools of the middleware. Currently, the use of cloud services is being researched to bring algorithms to the data. As a thematic example, an operational monitoring of vegetation phenology is being implemented on the basis of various optical satellite data and validation data from the German Weather Service. Other examples demonstrate the monitoring of wetlands focusing on automated discovery and access of Landsat and Sentinel data for local areas.

Multi-aged Forest: an Optimal Management Strategy for Carbon Sequestration

Science.gov (United States)

Yao, L.; Tang, X.; Ma, M.

2017-12-01

Disturbances and climatic changes significantly affect forest ecosystem productivity, water use efficiency (WUE) and carbon (C) flux dynamics. A deep understanding of terrestrial feedbacks to such effects and recovery mechanisms in forests across contrasting climatic regimes is essential to predict future regional/global C and water budgets, which are also closely related to the potential forest management decisions. However, the resilience of multi-aged and even-aged forests to disturbances has been debated for more than 60 years because of technical measurement constraints. Here we evaluated 62 site-years of eddy covariance measurements of net ecosystem production (NEP), evapotranspiration (ET), the estimates of gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (Re) and ecosystem-level WUE, as well as the relationships with environmental controls in three chronosequences of multi- and even-aged coniferous forests covering the Mediterranean, temperate and boreal regions. Age-specific dynamics in multi-year mean annual NEP and WUE revealed that forest age is a key variable that determines the sign and magnitude of recovering forest C source-sink strength from disturbances. However, the trends of annual NEP and WUE across succession stages between two stand structures differed substantially. The successional patterns of NEP exhibited an inverted-U trend with age at the two even-aged chronosequences, whereas NEP of the multi-aged chronosequence increased steadily through time. Meanwhile, site-level WUE of even-aged forests decreased gradually from young to mature, whereas an apparent increase occurred for the same forest age in multi-aged stands. Compared with even-aged forests, multi-aged forests sequestered more CO2 with forest age and maintained a relatively higher WUE in the later succession periods. With regard to the available flux measurements in this study, these behaviors are independent of tree species, stand ages and climate conditions . We also

Climate-model induced differences in the 21st century global and regional glacier contributions to sea-level rise

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Giesen, R.H.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304831603; Oerlemans, J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/06833656X

2013-01-01

The large uncertainty in future global glacier volume projections partly results from a substantial range in future climate conditions projected by global climate models. This study addresses the effect of global and regional differences in climate input data on the projected twenty-first century

The concentration of the global alcohol industry and its penetration in the African region.

Science.gov (United States)

Jernigan, David H; Babor, Thomas F

2015-04-01

To describe the penetration and expansion of the global alcohol industry into the African region, as a context for exploring the implications for public health. Source materials for this study came primarily from market research and the business press. This was supplemented by industry sources (from websites, company annual reports), World Health Organization reports and the scientific literature. Drinking in Africa is characterized by high rates of abstention and a high prevalence of heavy episodic consumption among those who drink. Much of the region is currently experiencing a rapid rise in consumption. Rising populations and income and the rapid pace of urbanization make Africa very attractive to the global alcohol industry, and industry leaders have identified Africa as a key area for growth. The shift from collaboration to competition in Africa among the global alcohol companies has prompted increasing alcohol production, promotion, new product development, pricing schemes and stakeholder lobbying. Beer consumption has increased across most of the continent, and global brewers view themselves as legitimate players at the alcohol policy table. Weak alcohol policy environments may be compromised further in terms of public health protections by alcohol industry opposition to effective measures such as marketing regulations, availability controls and taxation. © 2014 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Assessing carbon dioxide removal through global and regional ocean alkalinization under high and low emission pathways

Science.gov (United States)

Lenton, Andrew; Matear, Richard J.; Keller, David P.; Scott, Vivian; Vaughan, Naomi E.

2018-04-01

Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels continue to rise, increasing the risk of severe impacts on the Earth system, and on the ecosystem services that it provides. Artificial ocean alkalinization (AOA) is capable of reducing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and surface warming and addressing ocean acidification. Here, we simulate global and regional responses to alkalinity (ALK) addition (0.25 PmolALK yr-1) over the period 2020-2100 using the CSIRO-Mk3L-COAL Earth System Model, under high (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5; RCP8.5) and low (RCP2.6) emissions. While regionally there are large changes in alkalinity associated with locations of AOA, globally we see only a very weak dependence on where and when AOA is applied. On a global scale, while we see that under RCP2.6 the carbon uptake associated with AOA is only ˜ 60 % of the total, under RCP8.5 the relative changes in temperature are larger, as are the changes in pH (140 %) and aragonite saturation state (170 %). The simulations reveal AOA is more effective under lower emissions, therefore the higher the emissions the more AOA is required to achieve the same reduction in global warming and ocean acidification. Finally, our simulated AOA for 2020-2100 in the RCP2.6 scenario is capable of offsetting warming and ameliorating ocean acidification increases at the global scale, but with highly variable regional responses.

Global shape optimization of airfoil using multi-objective genetic algorithm

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Ju Hee; Lee, Sang Hwan; Park, Kyoung Woo

2005-01-01

The shape optimization of an airfoil has been performed for an incompressible viscous flow. In this study, Pareto frontier sets, which are global and non-dominated solutions, can be obtained without various weighting factors by using the multi-objective genetic algorithm. An NACA0012 airfoil is considered as a baseline model, and the profile of the airfoil is parameterized and rebuilt with four Bezier curves. Two curves, from leading to maximum thickness, are composed of five control points and the rest, from maximum thickness to tailing edge, are composed of four control points. There are eighteen design variables and two objective functions such as the lift and drag coefficients. A generation is made up of forty-five individuals. After fifteenth evolutions, the Pareto individuals of twenty can be achieved. One Pareto, which is the best of the reduction of the drag force, improves its drag to 13% and lift-drag ratio to 2%. Another Pareto, however, which is focused on increasing the lift force, can improve its lift force to 61%, while sustaining its drag force, compared to those of the baseline model

Global shape optimization of airfoil using multi-objective genetic algorithm

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Ju Hee; Lee, Sang Hwan [Hanyang Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Park, Kyoung Woo [Hoseo Univ., Asan (Korea, Republic of)

2005-10-01

The shape optimization of an airfoil has been performed for an incompressible viscous flow. In this study, Pareto frontier sets, which are global and non-dominated solutions, can be obtained without various weighting factors by using the multi-objective genetic algorithm. An NACA0012 airfoil is considered as a baseline model, and the profile of the airfoil is parameterized and rebuilt with four Bezier curves. Two curves, from leading to maximum thickness, are composed of five control points and the rest, from maximum thickness to tailing edge, are composed of four control points. There are eighteen design variables and two objective functions such as the lift and drag coefficients. A generation is made up of forty-five individuals. After fifteenth evolutions, the Pareto individuals of twenty can be achieved. One Pareto, which is the best of the reduction of the drag force, improves its drag to 13% and lift-drag ratio to 2%. Another Pareto, however, which is focused on increasing the lift force, can improve its lift force to 61%, while sustaining its drag force, compared to those of the baseline model.

FY08 LDRD Final Report Regional Climate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bader, D C; Chin, H; Caldwell, P M

2009-05-19

An integrated, multi-model capability for regional climate change simulation is needed to perform original analyses to understand and prepare for the impacts of climate change on the time and space scales that are critical to California's future environmental quality and economic prosperity. Our intent was to develop a very high resolution regional simulation capability to address consequences of climate change in California to complement the global modeling capability that is supported by DOE at LLNL and other institutions to inform national and international energy policies. The California state government, through the California Energy Commission (CEC), institutionalized the State's climate change assessment process through its biennial climate change reports. The bases for these reports, however, are global climate change simulations for future scenarios designed to inform international policy negotiations, and are primarily focused on the global to continental scale impacts of increasing emissions of greenhouse gases. These simulations do not meet the needs of California public and private officials who will make major decisions in the next decade that require an understanding of climate change in California for the next thirty to fifty years and its effects on energy use, water utilization, air quality, agriculture and natural ecosystems. With the additional development of regional dynamical climate modeling capability, LLNL will be able to design and execute global simulations specifically for scenarios important to the state, then use those results to drive regional simulations of the impacts of the simulated climate change for regions as small as individual cities or watersheds. Through this project, we systematically studied the strengths and weaknesses of downscaling global model results with a regional mesoscale model to guide others, particularly university researchers, who are using the technique based on models with less complete

Global and regional phosphorus budgets in agricultural systems and their implications for phosphorus-use efficiency

Science.gov (United States)

Lun, Fei; Liu, Junguo; Ciais, Philippe; Nesme, Thomas; Chang, Jinfeng; Wang, Rong; Goll, Daniel; Sardans, Jordi; Peñuelas, Josep; Obersteiner, Michael

2018-01-01

The application of phosphorus (P) fertilizer to agricultural soils increased by 3.2 % annually from 2002 to 2010. We quantified in detail the P inputs and outputs of cropland and pasture and the P fluxes through human and livestock consumers of agricultural products on global, regional, and national scales from 2002 to 2010. Globally, half of the total P inputs into agricultural systems accumulated in agricultural soils during this period, with the rest lost to bodies of water through complex flows. Global P accumulation in agricultural soil increased from 2002 to 2010 despite decreases in 2008 and 2009, and the P accumulation occurred primarily in cropland. Despite the global increase in soil P, 32 % of the world's cropland and 43 % of the pasture had soil P deficits. Increasing soil P deficits were found for African cropland vs. increasing P accumulation in eastern Asia. European and North American pasture had a soil P deficit because the continuous removal of biomass P by grazing exceeded P inputs. International trade played a significant role in P redistribution among countries through the flows of P in fertilizer and food among countries. Based on country-scale budgets and trends we propose policy options to potentially mitigate regional P imbalances in agricultural soils, particularly by optimizing the use of phosphate fertilizer and the recycling of waste P. The trend of the increasing consumption of livestock products will require more P inputs to the agricultural system, implying a low P-use efficiency and aggravating P-stock scarcity in the future. The global and regional phosphorus budgets and their PUEs in agricultural systems are publicly available at https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.875296.

Internationalization of product-service systems: Global, regional or national strategy?

OpenAIRE

Parry, G.; Bustinza, O. F.; Vendrell-Herrero, F.; O'Regan, N.

2016-01-01

This paper explores the validity of national, regional or global strategies in the provision of a music industry product service system. Quantitative analysis of cross-section data from over 70,000 respondents from 15 geographically spread countries identified a homogeneous group of so-called ‘Out of Touch’ consumers characterized by a shared attitude: they are interested in and have the money to purchase music, but no longer do so. The analysis ascertains if and how re-engaging this group in...

Multi-Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) Cooperative Fault Detection Employing Differential Global Positioning (DGPS), Inertial and Vision Sensors.

Science.gov (United States)

Heredia, Guillermo; Caballero, Fernando; Maza, Iván; Merino, Luis; Viguria, Antidio; Ollero, Aníbal

2009-01-01

This paper presents a method to increase the reliability of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) sensor Fault Detection and Identification (FDI) in a multi-UAV context. Differential Global Positioning System (DGPS) and inertial sensors are used for sensor FDI in each UAV. The method uses additional position estimations that augment individual UAV FDI system. These additional estimations are obtained using images from the same planar scene taken from two different UAVs. Since accuracy and noise level of the estimation depends on several factors, dynamic replanning of the multi-UAV team can be used to obtain a better estimation in case of faults caused by slow growing errors of absolute position estimation that cannot be detected by using local FDI in the UAVs. Experimental results with data from two real UAVs are also presented.

An inexact multi-objective programming approach for strategic environmental assessment on regional development plan

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

WANG Jihua; GUO Huaicheng; LIU Lei; HAO Mingjia; ZHANG Ming; LU Xiaojian; XING Kexia

2004-01-01

This paper presents the development of an inexact multi-objective programming (IMOP) model and its application to the strategic environmental assessment (SEA) for the regional development plan for the Hunnan New Zone (HNZ) in Shenyang City, China. Inexact programming and multi-objective programming methods are employed to effectively account for extensive uncertainties in the study system and to reflect various interests from different stakeholders, respectively. In the case study, balancing-economy-and-environment scenario and focusing-industry-development scenario are analyzed by the interactive solution process for addressing the preferences from local authorities and compromises among different objectives. Through interpreting the model solutions under both scenarios, analysis of industrial structure, waste water treatment plant(WWTP) expansion, water consumption and pollution generation and treatment are undertaken for providing a solid base to justify and evaluate the HNZ regional development plan. The study results show that the developed IMOP-SEA framework is feasible and applicable in carrying comprehensive environmental impact assessments for development plan in a more effective and efficient manner.

The Transition Region Explorer: Observing the Multi-Scale Dynamics of Geospace

Science.gov (United States)

Donovan, E.

2015-12-01

Meso- and global-scale IT remote sensing is accomplished via satellite imagers and ground-based instruments. On the ground, the approach is arrays providing extensive as possible coverage (the "net") and powerful observatories that drill deep to provide detailed information about small-scale processes (the "drill"). Always, there is a trade between cost, spatial resolution, coverage (extent), number of parameters, and more, such that in general the larger the network the sparser the coverage. Where are we now? There are important gaps. With THEMIS-ASI, we see processes that quickly evolve beyond the field of view of one observatory, but involve space/time scales not captured by existing meso- and large-scale arrays. Many forefront questions require observations at heretofore unexplored space and time scales, and comprehensive inter-hemispheric conjugate observations than are presently available. To address this, a new ground-based observing initiative is being developed in Canada. Called TREx, for Transition Region Explorer, this new facility will incorporate dedicated blueline, redline, and Near-Infrared All-Sky Imagers, together with an unprecedented network of ten imaging riometers, with a combined field of view spanning more than three hours of magnetic local time and from equatorward to poleward of typical auroral latitudes (spanning the ionospheric footprint of the "nightside transition region" that separates the highly stretched tail and the inner magnetosphere). The TREx field-of-view is covered by HF radars, and contains a dense network of magnetometers and VLF receivers, as well as other geospace and upper atmospheric remote sensors. Taken together, TREx and these co-located instruments represent a quantum leap forward in terms of imaging, in multiple parameters (precipitation, ionization, convection, and currents), ionospheric dynamics in the above-mentioned scale gap. This represents an exciting new opportunity for studying geospace at the system level

SMALL-SCALE AND GLOBAL DYNAMOS AND THE AREA AND FLUX DISTRIBUTIONS OF ACTIVE REGIONS, SUNSPOT GROUPS, AND SUNSPOTS: A MULTI-DATABASE STUDY

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Muñoz-Jaramillo, Andrés; Windmueller, John C.; Amouzou, Ernest C.; Longcope, Dana W. [Department of Physics, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT 59717 (United States); Senkpeil, Ryan R. [Department of Physics, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907 (United States); Tlatov, Andrey G. [Kislovodsk Mountain Astronomical Station of the Pulkovo Observatory, Kislovodsk 357700 (Russian Federation); Nagovitsyn, Yury A. [Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory, Russian Academy of Sciences, St. Petersburg 196140 (Russian Federation); Pevtsov, Alexei A. [National Solar Observatory, Sunspot, NM 88349 (United States); Chapman, Gary A.; Cookson, Angela M. [San Fernando Observatory, Department of Physics and Astronomy, California State University Northridge, Northridge, CA 91330 (United States); Yeates, Anthony R. [Department of Mathematical Sciences, Durham University, South Road, Durham DH1 3LE (United Kingdom); Watson, Fraser T. [National Solar Observatory, Tucson, AZ 85719 (United States); Balmaceda, Laura A. [Institute for Astronomical, Terrestrial and Space Sciences (ICATE-CONICET), San Juan (Argentina); DeLuca, Edward E. [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Martens, Petrus C. H., E-mail: munoz@solar.physics.montana.edu [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30303 (United States)

2015-02-10

In this work, we take advantage of 11 different sunspot group, sunspot, and active region databases to characterize the area and flux distributions of photospheric magnetic structures. We find that, when taken separately, different databases are better fitted by different distributions (as has been reported previously in the literature). However, we find that all our databases can be reconciled by the simple application of a proportionality constant, and that, in reality, different databases are sampling different parts of a composite distribution. This composite distribution is made up by linear combination of Weibull and log-normal distributions—where a pure Weibull (log-normal) characterizes the distribution of structures with fluxes below (above) 10{sup 21}Mx (10{sup 22}Mx). Additionally, we demonstrate that the Weibull distribution shows the expected linear behavior of a power-law distribution (when extended to smaller fluxes), making our results compatible with the results of Parnell et al. We propose that this is evidence of two separate mechanisms giving rise to visible structures on the photosphere: one directly connected to the global component of the dynamo (and the generation of bipolar active regions), and the other with the small-scale component of the dynamo (and the fragmentation of magnetic structures due to their interaction with turbulent convection)

Magic Mountains and multi-disciplines in international medical mobilities Comment on "Patient mobility in the global marketplace: a multidisciplinary perspective".

Science.gov (United States)

Mainil, Tomas; Meulemans, Herman

2014-06-01

Medical mobilities offer both opportunities and challenges. This tension follows the same ratio as many other historic fora, but offers at the same time a sustainable equilibrium. Multi-disciplines are, therefore, the key to the medical lifeworld for the global health and well-being of transnational health users around the globe.

Diagnosing Disaster Resilience of Communities as Multi-scale Complex Socio-ecological Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Wei; Mochizuki, Junko; Keating, Adriana; Mechler, Reinhard; Williges, Keith; Hochrainer, Stefan

2014-05-01

Global environmental change, growing anthropogenic influence, and increasing globalisation of society have made it clear that disaster vulnerability and resilience of communities cannot be understood without knowledge on the broader social-ecological system in which they are embedded. We propose a framework for diagnosing community resilience to disasters, as a form of disturbance to social-ecological systems, with feedbacks from the local to the global scale. Inspired by iterative multi-scale analysis employed by Resilience Alliance, the related socio-ecological systems framework of Ostrom, and the sustainable livelihood framework, we developed a multi-tier framework for thinking of communities as multi-scale social-ecological systems and analyzing communities' disaster resilience and also general resilience. We highlight the cross-scale influences and feedbacks on communities that exist from lower (e.g., household) to higher (e.g., regional, national) scales. The conceptual framework is then applied to a real-world resilience assessment situation, to illustrate how key components of socio-ecological systems, including natural hazards, natural and man-made environment, and community capacities can be delineated and analyzed.

Unraveling the nexus between water and food security in Latin America and the Caribbean: regional and global implications

Science.gov (United States)

Willaarts, Barbara; Garrido, Alberto; Soriano, Barbara; De Stefano, Lucia; López Gunn, Elena; Aldaya, Maite; Martínez-Santos, Pedro; Llamas, Ramon

2014-05-01

Latin American and the Caribbean (LAC) is a water and land abundant region, and plays a key role in meeting global food and water security. During the last decade, LAC has experience a rapid socio-economic growth, largely sustained by its competitive advantage in the production and exports of agricultural and mining products and by the high commodity prices in the global market. This study seeks to quantify the contribution of LAC's agriculture to global food and water security, i.e. virtual water trade, and evaluate the environmental and societal implications for regional development. Results show that between 2000 and 2011, LAC has increase its agricultural production 27%, and it now accounts for nearly 18% of the global agricultural market. As a result, the agricultural water footprint (WF) of LAC was augmented 65%; and yet, nearly 19% to 44% of the actual agricultural WF - depending on the countries - is virtual water exported to third countries. In fact, almost 50% of the increase in global virtual water trade during the last decade, corresponds to LAC. Such global contribution has significant implications for regional water and food security. From an environmental perspective, crop expansion (mostly rain-fed) resulted in the deforestation of nearly 1 million km2, turning this region into the second most important deforestation hotspots worldwide. This land clearing is having large impacts of ecosystem services, e.g. carbon sequestration, water quality or biodiversity conservation. From a socio-economic perspective, increasing agricultural production has improved regional food security indicators, although one every seven children is still stunted in LAC and nearly 10% of the population remains undernourished. Dietary shifts and socio-cultural factors also lag behind the growing problem of malnutrition in the region, i.e. overweight and obesity. Improvements of water access and sanitation, have had a positive impact on food security indicators, especially

Modelling Groundwater Depletion at Regional and Global Scales: Present State and Future Prospects.

Science.gov (United States)

Wada, Yoshihide

2015-01-01

Except for frozen water in ice and glaciers, groundwater is the world's largest distributed store of freshwater and has strategic importance to global food and water security. In this paper, the most recent advances quantifying groundwater depletion (GWD) are comprehensively reviewed. This paper critically evaluates the recently advanced modeling approaches estimating GWD at regional and global scales, and the evidence of feedbacks to the Earth system including sea-level rise associated with GWD. Finally, critical challenges and opportunities in the use of groundwater are identified for the adaption to growing food demand and uncertain climate.

Performance of Globally Linearized Controller and Two Region Fuzzy Logic Controller on a Nonlinear Process

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Jaya

2008-10-01

Full Text Available In this work, a design and implementation of a Conventional PI controller, single region fuzzy logic controller, two region fuzzy logic controller and Globally Linearized Controller (GLC for a two capacity interacting nonlinear process is carried out. The performance of this process using single region FLC, two region FLC and GLC are compared with the performance of conventional PI controller about an operating point of 50 %. It has been observed that GLC and two region FLC provides better performance. Further, this procedure is also validated by real time experimentation using dSPACE.

Impacts of global, regional, and sectoral black carbon emission reductions on surface air quality and human mortality

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. C. Anenberg

2011-07-01

Full Text Available As a component of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5, black carbon (BC is associated with premature human mortality. BC also affects climate by absorbing solar radiation and reducing planetary albedo. Several studies have examined the climate impacts of BC emissions, but the associated health impacts have been studied less extensively. Here, we examine the surface PM_2.5 and premature mortality impacts of halving anthropogenic BC emissions globally and individually from eight world regions and three major economic sectors. We use a global chemical transport model, MOZART-4, to simulate PM_2.5 concentrations and a health impact function to calculate premature cardiopulmonary and lung cancer deaths. We estimate that halving global anthropogenic BC emissions reduces outdoor population-weighted average PM_2.5 by 542 ng m⁻³ (1.8 % and avoids 157 000 (95 % confidence interval, 120 000–194 000 annual premature deaths globally, with the vast majority occurring within the source region. Most of these avoided deaths can be achieved by halving emissions in East Asia (China; 54 %, followed by South Asia (India; 31 %, however South Asian emissions have 50 % greater mortality impacts per unit BC emitted than East Asian emissions. Globally, halving residential, industrial, and transportation emissions contributes 47 %, 35 %, and 15 % to the avoided deaths from halving all anthropogenic BC emissions. These contributions are 1.2, 1.2, and 0.6 times each sector's portion of global BC emissions, owing to the degree of co-location with population globally. We find that reducing BC emissions increases regional SO₄ concentrations by up to 28 % of the magnitude of the regional BC concentration reductions, due to reduced absorption of radiation that drives photochemistry. Impacts of residential BC emissions are likely underestimated since indoor PM_2.5 exposure is excluded. We estimate ∼8 times

Multi-centennial upper-ocean heat content reconstruction using online data assimilation

Science.gov (United States)

Perkins, W. A.; Hakim, G. J.

2017-12-01

The Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR) provides an advanced paleoclimate ensemble data assimilation framework for multi-variate climate field reconstructions over the Common Era. Although reconstructions in this framework with full Earth system models remain prohibitively expensive, recent work has shown improved ensemble reconstruction validation using computationally inexpensive linear inverse models (LIMs). Here we leverage these techniques in pursuit of a new multi-centennial field reconstruction of upper-ocean heat content (OHC), synthesizing model dynamics with observational constraints from proxy records. OHC is an important indicator of internal climate variability and responds to planetary energy imbalances. Therefore, a consistent extension of the OHC record in time will help inform aspects of low-frequency climate variability. We use the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) and Max Planck Institute (MPI) last millennium simulations to derive the LIMs, and the PAGES2K v.2.0 proxy database to perform annually resolved reconstructions of upper-OHC, surface air temperature, and wind stress over the last 500 years. Annual OHC reconstructions and uncertainties for both the global mean and regional basins are compared against observational and reanalysis data. We then investigate differences in dynamical behavior at decadal and longer time scales between the reconstruction and simulations in the last-millennium Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 (CMIP5). Preliminary investigation of 1-year forecast skill for an OHC-only LIM shows largely positive spatial grid point local anomaly correlations (LAC) with a global average LAC of 0.37. Compared to 1-year OHC persistence forecast LAC (global average LAC of 0.30), the LIM outperforms the persistence forecasts in the tropical Indo-Pacific region, the equatorial Atlantic, and in certain regions near the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. In other regions, the forecast correlations are less than the

Climate change damage functions in LCA – (1) from global warming potential to natural environment damages

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Callesen, Ingeborg; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky; Bagger Jørgensen, Rikke

Energy use often is the most significant contributor to the impact category ‘global warming’ in life cycle impact assessment. However, the potential global warming effects on the climate at regional level and consequential effects on the natural environment are not thoroughly described within LCA...... methodology. The current scientific understanding of the extent of climate change impacts is limited due to the immense complexity of the multi-factorial environmental changes and unknown adaptive capacities at process, species and ecosystem level. In the presentation we argue that the global warming impacts...

The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

Science.gov (United States)

Ruane, Alex; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Elliott, Joshua; Antle, John

2015-01-01

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to construct a protocol-based framework enabling regional assessments (led by regional experts and modelers) that can provide consistent inputs to global economic and integrated assessment models. These global models can then relay important global-level information that drive regional decision-making and outcomes throughout an interconnected agricultural system. AgMIPs community of nearly 800 climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts has improved the state-of-the-art through model intercomparisons, validation exercises, regional integrated assessments, and the launch of AgMIP programs on all six arable continents. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security to link global and regional crop and economic models using a protocol-based framework. The CGRA protocols are being developed to utilize historical observations, climate projections, and RCPsSSPs from CMIP5 (and potentially CMIP6), and will examine stakeholder-driven agricultural development and adaptation scenarios to provide cutting-edge assessments of climate changes impact on agriculture and food security. These protocols will build on the foundation of established protocols from AgMIPs 30+ activities, and will emphasize the use of multiple models, scenarios, and scales to enable an accurate assessment of related uncertainties. The CGRA is also designed to provide the outputs necessary to feed into integrated assessment models (IAMs), nutrition and food security assessments, nitrogen and carbon cycle models, and additional impact-sector assessments (e.g., water resources, land-use, biomes, urban areas). This presentation will describe the current status of CGRA planning and initial prototype experiments to demonstrate key aspects of the protocols before wider implementation ahead of the IPCC Sixth Assessment

The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

Science.gov (United States)

Ruane, A. C.; Rosenzweig, C.; Antle, J. M.; Elliott, J. W.

2015-12-01

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to construct a protocol-based framework enabling regional assessments (led by regional experts and modelers) that can provide consistent inputs to global economic and integrated assessment models. These global models can then relay important global-level information that drive regional decision-making and outcomes throughout an interconnected agricultural system. AgMIP's community of nearly 800 climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts has improved the state-of-the-art through model intercomparisons, validation exercises, regional integrated assessments, and the launch of AgMIP programs on all six arable continents. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security to link global and regional crop and economic models using a protocol-based framework. The CGRA protocols are being developed to utilize historical observations, climate projections, and RCPs/SSPs from CMIP5 (and potentially CMIP6), and will examine stakeholder-driven agricultural development and adaptation scenarios to provide cutting-edge assessments of climate change's impact on agriculture and food security. These protocols will build on the foundation of established protocols from AgMIP's 30+ activities, and will emphasize the use of multiple models, scenarios, and scales to enable an accurate assessment of related uncertainties. The CGRA is also designed to provide the outputs necessary to feed into integrated assessment models (IAMs), nutrition and food security assessments, nitrogen and carbon cycle models, and additional impact-sector assessments (e.g., water resources, land-use, biomes, urban areas). This presentation will describe the current status of CGRA planning and initial prototype experiments to demonstrate key aspects of the protocols before wider implementation ahead of the IPCC Sixth Assessment

Comparison of boundary conditions from Global Chemistry Model (GCM) for regional air quality application

Science.gov (United States)

Lam, Yun Fat; Cheung, Hung Ming; Fu, Joshua; Huang, Kan

2015-04-01

Applying Global Chemistry Model (GCM) for regional Boundary Conditions (BC) has become a common practice to account for long-range transport of air pollutants in the regional air quality modeling. The limited domain model such as CMAQ and CAMx requires a global BC to prescribe the real-time chemical flux at the boundary grids, in order to give a realistic estimate of boundary impacts. Several GCMs have become available recently for use in regional air quality studies. In this study, three GCM models (i.e., GEOS-chem, CHASER and IFS-CB05 MACC provided by Seoul National University, Nagoya University and ECWMF, respectively) for the year of 2010 were applied in CMAQ for the East Asia domain under the framework of Model Inter-comparison Study Asia Phase III (MISC-Asia III) and task force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (HTAP) jointed experiments. Model performance evaluations on vertical profile and spatial distribution of O3 and PM2.5 have been made on those three models to better understand the model uncertainties from the boundary conditions. Individual analyses on various mega-cities (i.e., Hong Kong, Guangzhou, Taipei, Chongqing, Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin, Seoul and Tokyo) were also performed. Our analysis found that the monthly estimates of O3 for CHASER were a bit higher than GEOS-Chem and IFS-CB05 MACC, particularly in the northern part of China in the winter and spring, while the monthly averages of PM2.5 in GEOS-Chem were the lowest among the three models. The hourly maximum values of PM2.5 from those three models (GEOS-Chem, CHASER and IFS-CB05 MACC are 450, 321, 331 μg/m3, while the maximum O3 are 158, 212, 380 ppbv, respectively. Cross-comparison of CMAQ results from the 45 km resolution were also made to investigate the boundary impacts from the global GCMs. The results presented here provide insight on how global GCM selection influences the regional air quality simulation in East Asia.

Multi-Satellite Synergy for Aerosol Analysis in the Asian Monsoon Region

Science.gov (United States)

Ichoku, Charles; Petrenko, Maksym

2012-01-01

Atmospheric aerosols represent one of the greatest uncertainties in environmental and climate research, particularly in tropical monsoon regions such as the Southeast Asian regions, where significant contributions from a variety of aerosol sources and types is complicated by unstable atmospheric dynamics. Although aerosols are now routinely retrieved from multiple satellite Sensors, in trying to answer important science questions about aerosol distribution, properties, and impacts, researchers often rely on retrievals from only one or two sensors, thereby running the risk of incurring biases due to sensor/algorithm peculiarities. We are conducting detailed studies of aerosol retrieval uncertainties from various satellite sensors (including Terra-/ Aqua-MODIS, Terra-MISR, Aura-OMI, Parasol-POLDER, SeaWiFS, and Calipso-CALIOP), based on the collocation of these data products over AERONET and other important ground stations, within the online Multi-sensor Aerosol Products Sampling System (MAPSS) framework that was developed recently. Such analyses are aimed at developing a synthesis of results that can be utilized in building reliable unified aerosol information and climate data records from multiple satellite measurements. In this presentation, we will show preliminary results of. an integrated comparative uncertainly analysis of aerosol products from multiple satellite sensors, particularly focused on the Asian Monsoon region, along with some comparisons from the African Monsoon region.

Interaction of Economic Freedom and Foreign Direct Investment Globally: Special Cases from Neglected Regions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yhlas Sovbetov

2017-06-01

Full Text Available This paper studies the macroeconomic impact of economic freedom on foreign direct investments inflows in both global and regional panel analyses involving 156 countries through the period of 1995-2016. Unlike to prior literature, it includes often neglected nations such as Fragile and Conflict-Affected states, Sub-Saharan, Oceanian, and Post-Soviet countries. The paper finds a positive impact of economic freedom on FDI under fixed-effects model in global case where a unit change in economic freedom scales FDI inflows up to 1.15 units. More specifically, all 9 regions also refer to positive and significant impact of economic freedom on FDI. The highest impact is recorded in European countries, whereas the lowest ones are documented in Fragile-Conflict affected states, Sub-Saharan zone, and Oceanian countries.

Multi-model global assessment of subseasonal prediction skill of atmospheric rivers

Science.gov (United States)

Deflorio, M. J.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are global phenomena that are characterized by long, narrow plumes of water vapor transport. They are most often observed in the midlatitudes near climatologically active storm track regions. Because of their frequent association with floods, landslides, and other hydrological impacts on society, there is significant incentive at the intersection of academic research, water management, and policymaking to understand the skill with which state-of-the-art operational weather models can predict ARs weeks-to-months in advance. We use the newly assembled Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) database, which includes extensive hindcast records of eleven operational weather models, to assess global prediction skill of atmospheric rivers on S2S timescales. We develop a metric to assess AR skill that is suitable for S2S timescales by counting the total number of AR days which occur over each model and observational grid cell during a 2-week time window. This "2-week AR occurrence" metric is suitable for S2S prediction skill assessment because it does not consider discrete hourly or daily AR objects, but rather a smoothed representation of AR occurrence over a longer period of time. Our results indicate that several of the S2S models, especially the ECMWF model, show useful prediction skill in the 2-week forecast window, with significant interannual variation in some regions. We also present results from an experimental forecast of S2S AR prediction skill using the ECMWF and NCEP models.

Top-down constraints on disturbance dynamics in the terrestrial carbon cycle: effects at global and regional scales

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bloom, A. A.; Exbrayat, J. F.; van der Velde, I.; Peters, W.; Williams, M.

2014-01-01

Large uncertainties preside over terrestrial carbon flux estimates on a global scale. In particular, the strongly coupled dynamics between net ecosystem productivity and disturbance C losses are poorly constrained. To gain an improved understanding of ecosystem C dynamics from regional to global

New Sodium Cooled Long-Life Cores with Axially Multi-Driver Regions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hyun, Hae Ri; Hong, Ser Gi

2014-01-01

In this concept of long-life core (they are sometimes called B-B (Breed and Burn)), tall blanket is placed above the relatively short driver fuel. In the initial stage of burning, the power by fission is mostly generated in the driver region and it moves into the blanket region. The power and flux distributions that are highly peaked in the axial direction propagates slowly from the driver into the blanket region. This concept of long-life core fully utilizes the breeding of blanket in the fast spectra and it can achieve very high burnup of fuel. In this work, we introduce new sodium cooled longlife cores rating 600MWe (1800MWt). In these cores, the driver regions are heterogeneously placed into blanket region so as to achieve stabilized and less peaked axial power distribution as depletion proceeds. At present, our study is focused on only two axial driver regions but this concept can be easily extended onto the multi-driver region concept. The cores designed in this paper have two axial driver regions so as to have stabilized and less peaked axial power distributions as depletion proceeds. The results of the core design and analyses show that the cores have very long-lives longer than -49EFPYs and high discharge burnup higher than 200GWD/kg. Additionally, we considered a long-life core having no blanket. As expected, it was shown that these cores have stabilized and less peaked axial power distribution as the fuel depletes. However, the study shows that the cores having two driver regions still show high initial peaking of the axial power distributions and the core can be optimized by changing the driver fuel height

Global and regional phosphorus budgets in agricultural systems and their implications for phosphorus-use efficiency

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F. Lun

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The application of phosphorus (P fertilizer to agricultural soils increased by 3.2 % annually from 2002 to 2010. We quantified in detail the P inputs and outputs of cropland and pasture and the P fluxes through human and livestock consumers of agricultural products on global, regional, and national scales from 2002 to 2010. Globally, half of the total P inputs into agricultural systems accumulated in agricultural soils during this period, with the rest lost to bodies of water through complex flows. Global P accumulation in agricultural soil increased from 2002 to 2010 despite decreases in 2008 and 2009, and the P accumulation occurred primarily in cropland. Despite the global increase in soil P, 32 % of the world's cropland and 43 % of the pasture had soil P deficits. Increasing soil P deficits were found for African cropland vs. increasing P accumulation in eastern Asia. European and North American pasture had a soil P deficit because the continuous removal of biomass P by grazing exceeded P inputs. International trade played a significant role in P redistribution among countries through the flows of P in fertilizer and food among countries. Based on country-scale budgets and trends we propose policy options to potentially mitigate regional P imbalances in agricultural soils, particularly by optimizing the use of phosphate fertilizer and the recycling of waste P. The trend of the increasing consumption of livestock products will require more P inputs to the agricultural system, implying a low P-use efficiency and aggravating P-stock scarcity in the future. The global and regional phosphorus budgets and their PUEs in agricultural systems are publicly available at https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.875296.

Kinetic Alfven wave with density variation and loss-cone distribution function of multi-ions in PSBL region

Science.gov (United States)

Tamrakar, Radha; Varma, P.; Tiwari, M. S.

2018-05-01

Kinetic Alfven wave (KAW) generation due to variation of loss-cone index J and density of multi-ions (H+, He+ and O+) in the plasma sheet boundary layer region (PSBL) is investigated. Kinetic approach is used to derive dispersion relation of wave using Vlasov equation. Variation of frequency with respect to wide range of k⊥ρi (where k⊥ is wave vector across the magnetic field, ρi is gyroradius of ions and i denotes H+, He+ and O+ ions) is analyzed. It is found that each ion gyroradius and number density shows different effect on wave generation with varying width of loss-cone. KAW is generated with multi-ions (H+, He+ and O+) over wide regime for J=1 and shows dissimilar effect for J=2. Frequency is reduced with increasing density of gyrating He+ and O+ ions. Wave frequency is obtained within the reported range which strongly supports generation of kinetic Alfven waves. A sudden drop of frequency is also observed for H+ and He+ ion which may be due to heavy penetration of these ions through the loss-cone. The parameters of PSBL region are used for numerical calculation. The application of these results are in understanding the effect of gyrating multi-ions in transfer of energy and Poynting flux losses from PSBL region towards ionosphere and also describing the generation of aurora.

A review of the global relationship among freshwater fish, autotrophic activity, and regional climate

Science.gov (United States)

Deines, Andrew M.; Bunnell, David B.; Rogers, Mark W.; Beard, T. Douglas; Taylor, William W.

2015-01-01

The relationship between autotrophic activity and freshwater fish populations is an important consideration for ecologists describing trophic structure in aquatic communities, fisheries managers tasked with increasing sustainable fisheries development, and fish farmers seeking to maximize production. Previous studies of the empirical relationships of autotrophic activity and freshwater fish yield have found positive relationships but were limited by small sample sizes, small geographic scopes, and the inability to compare patterns among many types of measurement techniques. Individual studies and reviews have also lacked consistent consideration of regional climate factors which may inform relationships between fisheries and autotrophic activity. We compiled data from over 700 freshwater systems worldwide and used meta-analysis and linear models to develop a comprehensive global synthesis between multiple metrics of autotrophic activity, fisheries, and climate indicators. Our results demonstrate that multiple metrics of fish (i.e., catch per unit effort, yield, and production) increase with autotrophic activity across a variety of fisheries. At the global scale additional variation in this positive relationship can be ascribed to regional climate differences (i.e., temperature and precipitation) across systems. Our results provide a method and proof-of-concept for assessing inland fisheries production at the global scale, where current estimates are highly uncertain, and may therefore inform the continued sustainable use of global inland fishery resources.

Global and regional drivers of land-use emissions 1961-2013

Science.gov (United States)

Davis, S. J.; Burney, J. A.; Pongratz, J.; Hansis, E.

2017-12-01

Historically, human land use, including conversion of natural landscapes, has disrupted ecosystems worldwide, degraded global biodiversity, and added tremendous quantities of greenhouse gases (GHGs) to the atmosphere1-5. Yet, in contrast to fossil fuel emissions, trends and drivers of land use and related GHG emissions are usually assessed only for specific regions, processes, or products. Here, we present a comprehensive, country-level inventory of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from land use and land-use change from 1961-2013, decompose the demographic, economic and technical drivers of these emissions, and assess the sensitivity of results to different units of measurement and accounting assumptions. Globally, annual land use emissions (CO2-eq) have decreased between 1961 and 2013 (-32% in our central case), reflecting a balance between steady increases in agricultural production per capita (+42%) and equally persistent declines in the land required per unit of agricultural production (-65%), and emissions per area of land used (-41%). A few regions, processes, and products account for the majority of land use emissions: Latin America, Southeast Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa represent 55% of net cumulative emissions 1961-2013, conversion to cropland and pasture and enteric fermentation represent 103%, and cereal, dairy and beef products together represent 83%. Our results suggest that the emissions intensity of agricultural production is a particularly important indicator of agriculture's climate impact, where targeted reductions could substantially reduce that impact.

Multi-phase structural and tectonic evolution of the Andaman Sea Region

Science.gov (United States)

Masterton, Sheona; Hill, Catherine; Sagi, David Adam; Webb, Peter; Sevastjanova, Inga

2017-04-01

We present a new regional tectonic interpretation for Myanmar and the Andaman Sea, built within the framework of global plate motions. In our model the Present Day Andaman Sea region has been subjected to multiple phases of extension, culminating in its mid-Miocene to Present Day opening as a rhomboidal pull-apart basin. The Andaman Sea region is historically thought to have developed as a consequence of back-arc opening associated with plate convergence at the Andaman-Nicobar subduction system. We have undertaken detailed structural interpretation of potential field, Landsat and SRTM data, supported by 2-D crustal models of the Andaman Sea. From this analysis we identified several major north-south striking faults and a series of northeast-southwest striking structures across the region. We have also mapped the extent of the Andaman-Nicobar Accretionary Prism, a fore arc trough and volcanic arc, which we associate with a phase of traditional trench-parallel back-arc extension from the Paleocene to the middle Miocene. A regional tectonic event occurred during the middle Miocene that caused the cessation of back-arc extension in the Present Day Andaman Sea and an eastward shift in the locus of arc-related volcanism. At that time, N-S striking faults onshore and offshore Myanmar were reactivated with widespread right-lateral motion. This motion, accompanied by extension along new NE-SW striking faults, facilitated the opening of the Central Andaman Basin as a pull-apart basin (rhombochasm) in which a strike-slip tectonic regime has a greater impact on the mode of opening than the subduction process. The integration of our plate model solution within a global framework allows identification of major plate reorganisation events and their impact on a regional scale. We therefore attribute the onset of pull-apart opening in the Andaman Sea to ongoing clockwise rotation of the western Sundaland margin throughout the late Paleogene and early Miocene, possibly driven by the

Development of an Integrated Global Energy Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krakowski, R.A.

1999-01-01

The primary objective of this research was to develop a forefront analysis tool for application to enhance understanding of long-term, global, nuclear-energy and nuclear-material futures. To this end, an existing economics-energy-environmental (E 3 ) model was adopted, modified, and elaborated to examine this problem in a multi-regional (13), long-term (approximately2,100) context. The E 3 model so developed was applied to create a Los Alamos presence in this E 3 area through ''niche analyses'' that provide input to the formulation of policies dealing with and shaping of nuclear-energy and nuclear-materials futures. Results from analyses using the E 3 model have been presented at a variety of national and international conferences and workshops. Through use of the E 3 model Los Alamos was afforded the opportunity to participate in a multi-national E 3 study team that is examining a range of global, long-term nuclear issues under the auspices of the IAEA during the 1998-99 period . Finally, the E 3 model developed under this LDRD project is being used as an important component in more recent Nuclear Material Management Systems (NMMS) project

Forest fires in Himalayan region during 2016 - Aerosol load and smoke plume heights detection by multi sensor observations

Science.gov (United States)

Kumar, S.; Dumka, U. C.

2017-12-01

The forest fires are common events over the Central Himalayan region during the pre-monsoon season (March - June) of every year. Forest fire plays a crucial role in governing the vegetation structure, ecosystem, climate change as well as in atmospheric chemistry. In regional and global scales, the combustion of forest and grassland vegetation releases large volumes of smoke, aerosols, and other chemically active species that significantly influence Earth's radiative budget and atmospheric chemistry, impacting air quality and risks to human health. During the year 2016, massive forest fires have been recorded over the Central Himalayan region of Uttarakhand which continues for several weeks. To study this event we used the multi-satellite observations of aerosols and pollutants during pre-fire, fire and post-fire period over the central Himalayan region. The data used in this study are active fire count and aerosol optical depth (AOD) from MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), aerosol index and gases pollutants from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), along with vertical profiles of aerosols and smoke plume height information from Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO). The result shows that the mean fire counts were maximum in April. The daily average AOD value shows an increasing trend during the fire events. The mean value of AOD before the massive fire (25 April), during the fire (30 April) and post fire (5 May) periods are 0.3, 1.2 and 0.6 respectively. We find an increasing trend of total columnar NO2 over the Uttarakhand region during the massive fire event. Space-born Lidar (CALIPSO) retrievals show the extent of smoke plume heights beyond the planetary boundary layer up to 6 km during the peak burning day (April 30). The HYSPLIT air mass forward trajectory shows the long-range transportation of smoke plumes. The results of the present study provide valuable information for addressing smoke plume and

Implications of global warming for the climate of African rainforests.

Science.gov (United States)

James, Rachel; Washington, Richard; Rowell, David P

2013-01-01

African rainforests are likely to be vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation, yet there has been relatively little research to suggest how the regional climate might respond to global warming. This study presents projections of temperature and precipitation indices of relevance to African rainforests, using global climate model experiments to identify local change as a function of global temperature increase. A multi-model ensemble and two perturbed physics ensembles are used, one with over 100 members. In the east of the Congo Basin, most models (92%) show a wet signal, whereas in west equatorial Africa, the majority (73%) project an increase in dry season water deficits. This drying is amplified as global temperature increases, and in over half of coupled models by greater than 3% per °C of global warming. Analysis of atmospheric dynamics in a subset of models suggests that this could be partly because of a rearrangement of zonal circulation, with enhanced convection in the Indian Ocean and anomalous subsidence over west equatorial Africa, the Atlantic Ocean and, in some seasons, the Amazon Basin. Further research to assess the plausibility of this and other mechanisms is important, given the potential implications of drying in these rainforest regions.

A global map of dominant malaria vectors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sinka Marianne E

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Global maps, in particular those based on vector distributions, have long been used to help visualise the global extent of malaria. Few, however, have been created with the support of a comprehensive and extensive evidence-based approach. Methods Here we describe the generation of a global map of the dominant vector species (DVS of malaria that makes use of predicted distribution maps for individual species or species complexes. Results Our global map highlights the spatial variability in the complexity of the vector situation. In Africa, An. gambiae, An. arabiensis and An. funestus are co-dominant across much of the continent, whereas in the Asian-Pacific region there is a highly complex situation with multi-species coexistence and variable species dominance. Conclusions The competence of the mapping methodology to accurately portray DVS distributions is discussed. The comprehensive and contemporary database of species-specific spatial occurrence (currently available on request will be made directly available via the Malaria Atlas Project (MAP website from early 2012.

Globally covering a-priori regional gravity covariance models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Arabelos

2003-01-01

Full Text Available Gravity anomaly data generated using Wenzel’s GPM98A model complete to degree 1800, from which OSU91A has been subtracted, have been used to estimate covariance functions for a set of globally covering equal-area blocks of size 22.5° × 22.5° at Equator, having a 2.5° overlap. For each block an analytic covariance function model was determined. The models are based on 4 parameters: the depth to the Bjerhammar sphere (determines correlation, the free-air gravity anomaly variance, a scale factor of the OSU91A error degree-variances and a maximal summation index, N, of the error degree-variances. The depth of Bjerhammar-sphere varies from -134km to nearly zero, N varies from 360 to 40, the scale factor from 0.03 to 38.0 and the gravity variance from 1081 to 24(10µms-22. The parameters are interpreted in terms of the quality of the data used to construct OSU91A and GPM98A and general conditions such as the occurrence of mountain chains. The variation of the parameters show that it is necessary to use regional covariance models in order to obtain a realistic signal to noise ratio in global applications.Key words. GOCE mission, Covariance function, Spacewise approach`

Accelerating the SCE-UA Global Optimization Method Based on Multi-Core CPU and Many-Core GPU

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guangyuan Kan

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The famous global optimization SCE-UA method, which has been widely used in the field of environmental model parameter calibration, is an effective and robust method. However, the SCE-UA method has a high computational load which prohibits the application of SCE-UA to high dimensional and complex problems. In recent years, the hardware of computer, such as multi-core CPUs and many-core GPUs, improves significantly. These much more powerful new hardware and their software ecosystems provide an opportunity to accelerate the SCE-UA method. In this paper, we proposed two parallel SCE-UA methods and implemented them on Intel multi-core CPU and NVIDIA many-core GPU by OpenMP and CUDA Fortran, respectively. The Griewank benchmark function was adopted in this paper to test and compare the performances of the serial and parallel SCE-UA methods. According to the results of the comparison, some useful advises were given to direct how to properly use the parallel SCE-UA methods.

A new epidemic modeling approach: Multi-regions discrete-time model with travel-blocking vicinity optimal control strategy.

Science.gov (United States)

Zakary, Omar; Rachik, Mostafa; Elmouki, Ilias

2017-08-01

First, we devise in this paper, a multi-regions discrete-time model which describes the spatial-temporal spread of an epidemic which starts from one region and enters to regions which are connected with their neighbors by any kind of anthropological movement. We suppose homogeneous Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) populations, and we consider in our simulations, a grid of colored cells, which represents the whole domain affected by the epidemic while each cell can represent a sub-domain or region. Second, in order to minimize the number of infected individuals in one region, we propose an optimal control approach based on a travel-blocking vicinity strategy which aims to control only one cell by restricting movements of infected people coming from all neighboring cells. Thus, we show the influence of the optimal control approach on the controlled cell. We should also note that the cellular modeling approach we propose here, can also describes infection dynamics of regions which are not necessarily attached one to an other, even if no empty space can be viewed between cells. The theoretical method we follow for the characterization of the travel-locking optimal controls, is based on a discrete version of Pontryagin's maximum principle while the numerical approach applied to the multi-points boundary value problems we obtain here, is based on discrete progressive-regressive iterative schemes. We illustrate our modeling and control approaches by giving an example of 100 regions.

Investigation and Control of VIVs with Multi-Lock-in Regions on Wide Flat Box Girders

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bo Wu

2017-01-01

Full Text Available On the preliminary designing of a wide flat box girder with the slenderness ratio 12, vertical and torsional vortex-induced vibrations (VIV are observed in wind tunnel tests. More than one lock-in region, which are defined as “multi-lock-in regions,” are recorded. Therefore, suspicions should be aroused regarding the viewpoint that wide box girders are aerodynamic friendly. As the three nascent vortexes originating at the pedestrian guardrails and inspection rails shed to near-wake through different pathways with different frequencies, the mechanisms of VIVs and multi-lock-in regions are analyzed to be determined by the inappropriate subsidiary structures. A hybrid method combining Large Eddy Simulation (LES with experimental results is introduced to study the flow-structure interactions (FSI when undergoing VIVs; the vortex mode of torsional VIV on wide flat box girders is defined as “4/2S,” which is different from any other known ones. Based on the mechanism of VIV, a new approach by increasing ventilation rate of the pedestrian guardrails is proved to be effective in suppressing vertical and torsional VIVs, and it is more feasible than other control schemes. Then, the control mechanisms are deeper investigated by analyzing the evolution of vortex mode and FSI using Hybrid-LES method.

Global and Regional Patterns of Tobacco Smoking and Tobacco Control Policies.

Science.gov (United States)

Islami, Farhad; Stoklosa, Michal; Drope, Jeffrey; Jemal, Ahmedin

2015-08-01

Tobacco smoking is a major worldwide cause of morbidity and mortality from various diseases, including urologic diseases. We reviewed, at global and regional levels, the prevalence and trends of tobacco smoking and legislative and regulatory efforts around tobacco control. We also provided information about electronic cigarette (e-cigarette) use. We used several sources to present the most up-to-date information from national surveys, including the Global Adult Tobacco Survey, the Global Tobacco Control Report, and the Global Youth Tobacco Survey. Smoking prevalence has been decreasing globally, although trends in smoking vary substantially across countries and by gender. Among men, smoking prevalence in most high-income countries started to decrease in the mid-1990s, followed after a few decades by generally smaller decreases in some low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, there has been no change, or there has even been an increase, in smoking prevalence in many other LMICs. Countries with the highest male smoking prevalence are located in East Asia, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe. Similar to men, smoking prevalence for women has been decreasing in most high-income countries and some LMICs, although the decrease began later and was slower than that for men. Except in a few countries, smoking is much less common for women than for men. Most countries with the highest smoking prevalence in women are in Europe. Countries that have implemented the best practices for tobacco control, including monitoring, smoke-free policies, cessation programs, health warnings, advertising bans, and taxation, have been able to reduce smoking rates and related harms. E-cigarette use has rapidly increased since its introduction to the market. Health care providers should advise smoking patients about quitting smoking. Countries must improve the implementation and enforcement of tobacco control policies. Particular attention should be paid to preventing an increase in

Upper Mantle Shear Wave Structure Beneath North America From Multi-mode Surface Wave Tomography

Science.gov (United States)

Yoshizawa, K.; Ekström, G.

2008-12-01

The upper mantle structure beneath the North American continent has been investigated from measurements of multi-mode phase speeds of Love and Rayleigh waves. To estimate fundamental-mode and higher-mode phase speeds of surface waves from a single seismogram at regional distances, we have employed a method of nonlinear waveform fitting based on a direct model-parameter search using the neighbourhood algorithm (Yoshizawa & Kennett, 2002). The method of the waveform analysis has been fully automated by employing empirical quantitative measures for evaluating the accuracy/reliability of estimated multi-mode phase dispersion curves, and thus it is helpful in processing the dramatically increasing numbers of seismic data from the latest regional networks such as USArray. As a first step toward modeling the regional anisotropic shear-wave velocity structure of the North American upper mantle with extended vertical resolution, we have applied the method to long-period three-component records of seismic stations in North America, which mostly comprise the GSN and US regional networks as well as the permanent and transportable USArray stations distributed by the IRIS DMC. Preliminary multi-mode phase-speed models show large-scale patterns of isotropic heterogeneity, such as a strong velocity contrast between the western and central/eastern United States, which are consistent with the recent global and regional models (e.g., Marone, et al. 2007; Nettles & Dziewonski, 2008). We will also discuss radial anisotropy of shear wave speed beneath North America from multi-mode dispersion measurements of Love and Rayleigh waves.

Dissonance and harmony between global and regional-scale seismic anisotropy and mantle dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Becker, T. W.

2017-12-01

Huge numbers of SKS splitting observations and improved surface-wave based models of azimuthal anisotropy have advanced our understanding of how convection is recorded in mantle fabrics in the upper mantle. However, we are still debating the relative importance of frozen to actively forming olivine fabrics, subduction zone anisotropy lacks a clear reference model, and regional marine studies yield conflicting evidence as to what exactly is going on at the base of the plates and below. Here, I review the degree of agreement between regional and global observations of seismic anisotropy and how well those may be matched by first-order mantle convection models. Updated bean counting can help contextualize the spatial scales of alignment, and I discuss several examples of the relative roles of plate shear to mantle density anomalies and frozen-in structure for oceanic and continental plates. Resolution of seismological models is globally uneven, but there are some locales where such exercises may yield information on the relative strength of asthenosphere and mantle. Another long-standing question is how olivine fabrics record flow under different stress and volatile conditions. I illustrate how different petrological assumptions might be used to reconcile observations of azimuthal dependency of wave speeds for both Love and Rayleigh waves, and how this could improve our models of the upper mantle, much in the spirit of Montagner's vectorial tomography. This is but one approach to improve the regional realism of global geodynamic background models to understand where in space and time dissonance arises, and if a harmonious model may yet be constructed given our assumptions about the workings of the mantle.

Study of the global and regional climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude using SPEEDY AGCM

KAUST Repository

Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar; Kucharski, Fred; Azharuddin, Syed

2017-01-01

ENSO is considered as a strong atmospheric teleconnection that has pronounced global and regional circulation effects. It modifies global monsoon system, especially, Asian and African monsoons. Previous studies suggest that both the frequency and magnitude of ENSO events have increased over the last few decades resulting in a need to study climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude both at global and regional scales. Hence, to better understand the impact of ENSO amplitude over the tropical and extratropical regions focussing on the Asian and African domains, ENSO sensitivity experiments are conducted using ICTPAGCM (‘SPEEDY’). It is anticipated that the tropical Pacific SST forcing will be enough to produce ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns; therefore, the model is forced using NINO3.4 regressed SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific only. SPEEDY reproduces the impact of ENSO over the Pacific, North and South America and African regions very well. However, it underestimates ENSO teleconnection patterns and associated changes over South Asia, particularly in the Indian region, which suggests that the tropical Pacific SST forcing is not sufficient to represent ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns over South Asia. Therefore, SST forcing over the tropical Indian Ocean together with air–sea coupling is also required for better representation of ENSO-induced changes in these regions. Moreover, results obtained by this pacemaker experiment show that ENSO impacts are relatively stronger over the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) compared to extratropics and high latitude regions. The positive phase of ENSO causes weakening in rainfall activity over African tropical rain belt, parts of South and Southeast Asia, whereas, the La Niña phase produces more rain over these regions during the summer season. Model results further reveal that ENSO magnitude has a stronger impact over African Sahel and South Asia, especially over the Indian region because of its significant

Study of the global and regional climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude using SPEEDY AGCM

KAUST Repository

Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar

2017-03-09

ENSO is considered as a strong atmospheric teleconnection that has pronounced global and regional circulation effects. It modifies global monsoon system, especially, Asian and African monsoons. Previous studies suggest that both the frequency and magnitude of ENSO events have increased over the last few decades resulting in a need to study climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude both at global and regional scales. Hence, to better understand the impact of ENSO amplitude over the tropical and extratropical regions focussing on the Asian and African domains, ENSO sensitivity experiments are conducted using ICTPAGCM (‘SPEEDY’). It is anticipated that the tropical Pacific SST forcing will be enough to produce ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns; therefore, the model is forced using NINO3.4 regressed SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific only. SPEEDY reproduces the impact of ENSO over the Pacific, North and South America and African regions very well. However, it underestimates ENSO teleconnection patterns and associated changes over South Asia, particularly in the Indian region, which suggests that the tropical Pacific SST forcing is not sufficient to represent ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns over South Asia. Therefore, SST forcing over the tropical Indian Ocean together with air–sea coupling is also required for better representation of ENSO-induced changes in these regions. Moreover, results obtained by this pacemaker experiment show that ENSO impacts are relatively stronger over the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) compared to extratropics and high latitude regions. The positive phase of ENSO causes weakening in rainfall activity over African tropical rain belt, parts of South and Southeast Asia, whereas, the La Niña phase produces more rain over these regions during the summer season. Model results further reveal that ENSO magnitude has a stronger impact over African Sahel and South Asia, especially over the Indian region because of its significant

NeMO-Net & Fluid Lensing: The Neural Multi-Modal Observation & Training Network for Global Coral Reef Assessment Using Fluid Lensing Augmentation of NASA EOS Data

Science.gov (United States)

Chirayath, Ved

2018-01-01

We present preliminary results from NASA NeMO-Net, the first neural multi-modal observation and training network for global coral reef assessment. NeMO-Net is an open-source deep convolutional neural network (CNN) and interactive active learning training software in development which will assess the present and past dynamics of coral reef ecosystems. NeMO-Net exploits active learning and data fusion of mm-scale remotely sensed 3D images of coral reefs captured using fluid lensing with the NASA FluidCam instrument, presently the highest-resolution remote sensing benthic imaging technology capable of removing ocean wave distortion, as well as hyperspectral airborne remote sensing data from the ongoing NASA CORAL mission and lower-resolution satellite data to determine coral reef ecosystem makeup globally at unprecedented spatial and temporal scales. Aquatic ecosystems, particularly coral reefs, remain quantitatively misrepresented by low-resolution remote sensing as a result of refractive distortion from ocean waves, optical attenuation, and remoteness. Machine learning classification of coral reefs using FluidCam mm-scale 3D data show that present satellite and airborne remote sensing techniques poorly characterize coral reef percent living cover, morphology type, and species breakdown at the mm, cm, and meter scales. Indeed, current global assessments of coral reef cover and morphology classification based on km-scale satellite data alone can suffer from segmentation errors greater than 40%, capable of change detection only on yearly temporal scales and decameter spatial scales, significantly hindering our understanding of patterns and processes in marine biodiversity at a time when these ecosystems are experiencing unprecedented anthropogenic pressures, ocean acidification, and sea surface temperature rise. NeMO-Net leverages our augmented machine learning algorithm that demonstrates data fusion of regional FluidCam (mm, cm-scale) airborne remote sensing with

Globalization And Its Influence On The Development Of International Law

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Olga M. Mesheriakova

2014-09-01

Full Text Available In the present article author researches questions of globalization impact on the international law. Author notes that today it is possible to talk about the new phase of globalization that is associated with the development of bilateral regional agreements, as well as changes in the configuration of the trade and political landscape. In the article author also reveals the essence of processes that determine development of international law in the century of globalization. Along with the formation of a new branch of law - integration law, which is a kind of legal mechanism to govern global public relations, development of modern public law is determined by the changing of nature of production and international specialization, as well as multinational corporations. In the conclusion author points out possibility of the own monetary system creation in the integration community, even in the format of multi-speed integration, what allows EU member states together confront to dollar and yuan, what contributes to the achievement of their national interests in the economic sphere, therefore, legal mechanism established the European Union takes into account both regional and economic aspects that are associated with the process of globalization. With new trends in the development of modern international law it is necessary to develop advanced models of legal regulation for processes caused by globalization.

Validation of precipitation over Japan during 1985-2004 simulated by three regional climate models and two multi-model ensemble means

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ishizaki, Yasuhiro [Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba (Japan); National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba (Japan); Nakaegawa, Toshiyuki; Takayabu, Izuru [Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba (Japan)

2012-07-15

We dynamically downscaled Japanese reanalysis data (JRA-25) for 60 regions of Japan using three regional climate models (RCMs): the Non-Hydrostatic Regional Climate Model (NHRCM), modified RAMS version 4.3 (NRAMS), and modified Weather Research and Forecasting model (TWRF). We validated their simulations of the precipitation climatology and interannual variations of summer and winter precipitation. We also validated precipitation for two multi-model ensemble means: the arithmetic ensemble mean (AEM) and an ensemble mean weighted according to model reliability. In the 60 regions NRAMS simulated both the winter and summer climatological precipitation better than JRA-25, and NHRCM simulated the wintertime precipitation better than JRA-25. TWRF, however, overestimated precipitation in the 60 regions in both the winter and summer, and NHRCM overestimated precipitation in the summer. The three RCMs simulated interannual variations, particularly summer precipitation, better than JRA-25. AEM simulated both climatological precipitation and interannual variations during the two seasons more realistically than JRA-25 and the three RCMs overall, but the best RCM was often superior to the AEM result. In contrast, the weighted ensemble mean skills were usually superior to those of the best RCM. Thus, both RCMs and multi-model ensemble means, especially multi-model ensemble means weighted according to model reliability, are powerful tools for simulating seasonal and interannual variability of precipitation in Japan under the current climate. (orig.)

Global carbon inequality

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hubacek, Klaus [University of Maryland, Department of Geographical Sciences, College Park, MD (United States); Masaryk University, Department of Environmental Studies, Brno (Czech Republic); Baiocchi, Giovanni [University of Maryland, Department of Geographical Sciences, College Park, MD (United States); University of Maryland, Department of Economics, College Park, MD (United States); Feng, Kuishuang [University of Maryland, Department of Geographical Sciences, College Park, MD (United States); Munoz Castillo, Raul [University of Maryland, Department of Geographical Sciences, College Park, MD (United States); Interamerican Development Bank, Washington, DC (United States); Sun, Laixiang [University of Maryland, Department of Geographical Sciences, College Park, MD (United States); SOAS, University of London, London (United Kingdom); International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria); Xue, Jinjun [Nagoya University, Graduate School of Economics, Nagoya (Japan); Hubei University of Economics, Wuhan (China)

2017-12-01

Global climate change and inequality are inescapably linked both in terms of who contributes climate change and who suffers the consequences. This fact is also partly reflected in two United Nations (UN) processes: on the one hand, the Paris Agreement of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change under which countries agreed to hold the increase in the global average temperature to below 2 C above pre-industrial levels and, on the other hand, the UN's Sustainable Development Goals aiming to end poverty. These agreements are seen as important foundation to put the world nations on a sustainable pathway. However, how these agreements can be achieved or whether they are even mutually compatible is less clear. We explore the global carbon inequality between and within countries and the carbon implications of poverty alleviation by combining detailed consumer expenditure surveys for different income categories for a wide range of countries with an environmentally extended multi-regional input-output approach to estimate carbon footprints of different household groups, globally, and assess the carbon implications of moving the poorest people out of poverty. Given the current context, increasing income leads to increasing carbon footprints and makes global targets for mitigating greenhouse gases more difficult to achieve given the pace of technological progress and current levels of fossil fuel dependence. We conclude that the huge level of carbon inequality requires a critical discussion of undifferentiated income growth. Current carbon-intensive lifestyles and consumption patterns need to enter the climate discourse to a larger extent. (orig.)

Global carbon inequality

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hubacek, Klaus; Baiocchi, Giovanni; Feng, Kuishuang; Munoz Castillo, Raul; Sun, Laixiang; Xue, Jinjun

2017-01-01

Global climate change and inequality are inescapably linked both in terms of who contributes climate change and who suffers the consequences. This fact is also partly reflected in two United Nations (UN) processes: on the one hand, the Paris Agreement of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change under which countries agreed to hold the increase in the global average temperature to below 2 C above pre-industrial levels and, on the other hand, the UN's Sustainable Development Goals aiming to end poverty. These agreements are seen as important foundation to put the world nations on a sustainable pathway. However, how these agreements can be achieved or whether they are even mutually compatible is less clear. We explore the global carbon inequality between and within countries and the carbon implications of poverty alleviation by combining detailed consumer expenditure surveys for different income categories for a wide range of countries with an environmentally extended multi-regional input-output approach to estimate carbon footprints of different household groups, globally, and assess the carbon implications of moving the poorest people out of poverty. Given the current context, increasing income leads to increasing carbon footprints and makes global targets for mitigating greenhouse gases more difficult to achieve given the pace of technological progress and current levels of fossil fuel dependence. We conclude that the huge level of carbon inequality requires a critical discussion of undifferentiated income growth. Current carbon-intensive lifestyles and consumption patterns need to enter the climate discourse to a larger extent. (orig.)

Guidelines and recommendations for regional approaches to disarmament within the context of global security

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mason, P.

1994-01-01

Guidelines and recommendations for regional approaches to disarmament within the context of global security provide both a conceptual framework within which to pursue arms control in South Asia and a variety of concrete mechanisms or tools to carry out the task. However, they cannot operate independently of a broader process of political accommodation, which might be named as 'cooperative security building'. That process, however embryonic, is under way across Asia Pacific region

California Wintertime Precipitation in Regional and Global Climate Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Caldwell, P M

2009-04-27

In this paper, wintertime precipitation from a variety of observational datasets, regional climate models (RCMs), and general circulation models (GCMs) is averaged over the state of California (CA) and compared. Several averaging methodologies are considered and all are found to give similar values when model grid spacing is less than 3{sup o}. This suggests that CA is a reasonable size for regional intercomparisons using modern GCMs. Results show that reanalysis-forced RCMs tend to significantly overpredict CA precipitation. This appears to be due mainly to overprediction of extreme events; RCM precipitation frequency is generally underpredicted. Overprediction is also reflected in wintertime precipitation variability, which tends to be too high for RCMs on both daily and interannual scales. Wintertime precipitation in most (but not all) GCMs is underestimated. This is in contrast to previous studies based on global blended gauge/satellite observations which are shown here to underestimate precipitation relative to higher-resolution gauge-only datasets. Several GCMs provide reasonable daily precipitation distributions, a trait which doesn't seem tied to model resolution. GCM daily and interannual variability is generally underpredicted.

The impact of globalization on economic conditions: empirical evidence from the Mena region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marwa A. Elsherif

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The Middle East and North Africa (MENA is an economically diverse region that includes countries with a common heritage, at various stages of economic development, with vastly different endowment of natural resources and accounts for 6% of the world total population. Despite undertaking economic reforms in many countries, and having considerable success in achieving macroeconomic stability, the region's economic performance in the past 30 years has been below its potential. Some countries that pursued reforms, such as Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and Tunisia, enjoyed the region's most rapid growth rates, but due to the political instability and turbulences they are still lagged behind. The purpose of this study is to empirically investigate the impact of globalization in MENA region on the economic performances. This study uses a panel data covers the period 2001–2014 for Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC and non- Gulf Cooperation Council (non-GCC MENA countries and employs Generalized Method of Moments (GMM approach. Results indicate that Globalization is negatively affecting economic conditions in non-GCC and it has no significant effect on non-GCC. This study suggests better policy coordination at all level of government to integrate social, economic and political policies as well all to improve transparency and democratic participation. The paper is outlined as follows- following the introduction, section two reviews the current economic conditions in MENA countries, section three discusses data and methodology, section four presents’ results and interpretation of findings, section five provides conclusions and recommendations.