WorldWideScience

Sample records for global modeling initiative

  1. Global Methane Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Global Methane Initiative promotes cost-effective, near-term methane recovery through partnerships between developed and developing countries, with participation from the private sector, development banks, and nongovernmental organizations.

  2. Where does subduction initiate and die? Insights from global convection models with continental drift

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulvrova, Martina; Williams, Simon; Coltice, Nicolas; Tackley, Paul

    2017-04-01

    Plate tectonics is a prominent feature on Earth. Together with the underlying convecting mantle, plates form a self-organized system. In order to understand the dynamics of the coupled system, subduction of the lithospheric plates plays the key role since it links the exterior with the interior of the planet. In this work we study subduction initiation and death with respect to the position of the continental rafts. Using thermo-mechanical numerical calculations we investigate global convection models featuring self-consistent plate tectonics and continental drifting employing a pseudo-plastic rheology and testing the effect of a free surface. We consider uncompressible mantle convection in Boussinesq approximation that is basaly and internaly heated. Our calculations indicate that the presence of the continents alterns stress distribution within a certain distance from the margins. Intra-oceanic subudction initiation is favorable during super-continent cycles while the initiation at passive continental margin prevails when continents are dispersed. The location of subduction initiation is additionally controlled by the lithospheric strength. Very weak lithosphere results in domination of intra-oceanic subduction initiation. The subduction zones die more easily in the vicinity of the continent due to the strong rheological contrast between the oceanic and continental lithosphere. In order to compare our findings with subduction positions through time recorded on Earth, we analyse subduction birth in global plate reconstruction back to 410 My.

  3. The Ozone Budget in the Upper Troposphere from Global Modeling Initiative (GMI)Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriquez, J.; Duncan, Bryan N.; Logan, Jennifer A.

    2006-01-01

    Ozone concentrations in the upper troposphere are influenced by in-situ production, long-range tropospheric transport, and influx of stratospheric ozone, as well as by photochemical removal. Since ozone is an important greenhouse gas in this region, it is particularly important to understand how it will respond to changes in anthropogenic emissions and changes in stratospheric ozone fluxes.. This response will be determined by the relative balance of the different production, loss and transport processes. Ozone concentrations calculated by models will differ depending on the adopted meteorological fields, their chemical scheme, anthropogenic emissions, and treatment of the stratospheric influx. We performed simulations using the chemical-transport model from the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) with meteorological fields from (It)h e NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM), (2) the atmospheric GCM from NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office(GMAO), and (3) assimilated winds from GMAO . These simulations adopt the same chemical mechanism and emissions, and adopt the Synthetic Ozone (SYNOZ) approach for treating the influx of stratospheric ozone -. In addition, we also performed simulations for a coupled troposphere-stratosphere model with a subset of the same winds. Simulations were done for both 4degx5deg and 2degx2.5deg resolution. Model results are being tested through comparison with a suite of atmospheric observations. In this presentation, we diagnose the ozone budget in the upper troposphere utilizing the suite of GMI simulations, to address the sensitivity of this budget to: a) the different meteorological fields used; b) the adoption of the SYNOZ boundary condition versus inclusion of a full stratosphere; c) model horizontal resolution. Model results are compared to observations to determine biases in particular simulations; by examining these comparisons in conjunction with the derived budgets, we may pinpoint

  4. Activities of NASA's Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) in the Assessment of Subsonic Aircraft Impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriquez, J. M.; Logan, J. A.; Rotman, D. A.; Bergmann, D. J.; Baughcum, S. L.; Friedl, R. R.; Anderson, D. E.

    2004-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimated a peak increase in ozone ranging from 7-12 ppbv (zonal and annual average, and relative to a baseline with no aircraft), due to the subsonic aircraft in the year 2015, corresponding to aircraft emissions of 1.3 TgN/year. This range of values presumably reflects differences in model input (e.g., chemical mechanism, ground emission fluxes, and meteorological fields), and algorithms. The model implemented by the Global Modeling Initiative allows testing the impact of individual model components on the assessment calculations. We present results of the impact of doubling the 1995 aircraft emissions of NOx, corresponding to an extra 0.56 TgN/year, utilizing meteorological data from NASA's Data Assimilation Office (DAO), the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), and the Middle Atmosphere Community Climate Model, version 3 (MACCM3). Comparison of results to observations can be used to assess the model performance. Peak ozone perturbations ranging from 1.7 to 2.2 ppbv of ozone are calculated using the different fields. These correspond to increases in total tropospheric ozone ranging from 3.3 to 4.1 Tg/Os. These perturbations are consistent with the IPCC results, due to the difference in aircraft emissions. However, the range of values calculated is much smaller than in IPCC.

  5. Using Green's Functions to initialize and adjust a global, eddying ocean biogeochemistry general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brix, H.; Menemenlis, D.; Hill, C.; Dutkiewicz, S.; Jahn, O.; Wang, D.; Bowman, K.; Zhang, H.

    2015-11-01

    The NASA Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) Flux Project aims to attribute changes in the atmospheric accumulation of carbon dioxide to spatially resolved fluxes by utilizing the full suite of NASA data, models, and assimilation capabilities. For the oceanic part of this project, we introduce ECCO2-Darwin, a new ocean biogeochemistry general circulation model based on combining the following pre-existing components: (i) a full-depth, eddying, global-ocean configuration of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm), (ii) an adjoint-method-based estimate of ocean circulation from the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Phase II (ECCO2) project, (iii) the MIT ecosystem model "Darwin", and (iv) a marine carbon chemistry model. Air-sea gas exchange coefficients and initial conditions of dissolved inorganic carbon, alkalinity, and oxygen are adjusted using a Green's Functions approach in order to optimize modeled air-sea CO2 fluxes. Data constraints include observations of carbon dioxide partial pressure (pCO2) for 2009-2010, global air-sea CO2 flux estimates, and the seasonal cycle of the Takahashi et al. (2009) Atlas. The model sensitivity experiments (or Green's Functions) include simulations that start from different initial conditions as well as experiments that perturb air-sea gas exchange parameters and the ratio of particulate inorganic to organic carbon. The Green's Functions approach yields a linear combination of these sensitivity experiments that minimizes model-data differences. The resulting initial conditions and gas exchange coefficients are then used to integrate the ECCO2-Darwin model forward. Despite the small number (six) of control parameters, the adjusted simulation is significantly closer to the data constraints (37% cost function reduction, i.e., reduction in the model-data difference, relative to the baseline simulation) and to independent observations (e.g., alkalinity). The adjusted air-sea gas

  6. Adherence of private health system hospitals to dissemination of outcomes according to the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machado, Celso; César, Robson Danúbio da Silva; Souza, Maria Tereza Saraiva de

    2017-01-01

    To verify if there is an analogy between the indicators of the Global Reporting Initiative adopted by hospitals in the private healthcare system. Documentary research supported by reports that are electronically available on the website of the companies surveyed. The organizations surveyed had a significant adherence of their economic, social and environmental indicators of the model proposed by the Global Reporting Initiative, showing an analogous field of common indicators between them. There is similarity between the indicators adopted by companies, but one of the hospitals analyzed had a greater number of converging indicators to Global Reporting Initiative.

  7. Adherence of private health system hospitals to dissemination of outcomes according to the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) model

    OpenAIRE

    Machado Junior, Celso; César, Robson Danúbio da Silva; Souza, Maria Tereza Saraiva de

    2017-01-01

    ABSTRACT Objective To verify if there is an analogy between the indicators of the Global Reporting Initiative adopted by hospitals in the private healthcare system. Methods Documentary research supported by reports that are electronically available on the website of the companies surveyed. Results The organizations surveyed had a significant adherence of their economic, social and environmental indicators of the model proposed by the Global Reporting Initiative, showing an analogous fie...

  8. Adherence of private health system hospitals to dissemination of outcomes according to the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) model

    OpenAIRE

    Machado, Celso; César, Robson Danúbio da Silva; de Souza, Maria Tereza Saraiva

    2017-01-01

    ABSTRACT Objective To verify if there is an analogy between the indicators of the Global Reporting Initiative adopted by hospitals in the private healthcare system. Methods Documentary research supported by reports that are electronically available on the website of the companies surveyed. Results The organizations surveyed had a significant adherence of their economic, social and environmental indicators of the model proposed by the Global Reporting Initiative, showing an analogous field of ...

  9. The GED4GEM project: development of a Global Exposure Database for the Global Earthquake Model initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gamba, P.; Cavalca, D.; Jaiswal, K.S.; Huyck, C.; Crowley, H.

    2012-01-01

    In order to quantify earthquake risk of any selected region or a country of the world within the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) framework (www.globalquakemodel.org/), a systematic compilation of building inventory and population exposure is indispensable. Through the consortium of leading institutions and by engaging the domain-experts from multiple countries, the GED4GEM project has been working towards the development of a first comprehensive publicly available Global Exposure Database (GED). This geospatial exposure database will eventually facilitate global earthquake risk and loss estimation through GEM’s OpenQuake platform. This paper provides an overview of the GED concepts, aims, datasets, and inference methodology, as well as the current implementation scheme, status and way forward.

  10. Initializing carbon cycle predictions from the Community Land Model by assimilating global biomass observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, A. M.; Hoar, T. J.; Smith, W. K.; Moore, D. J.

    2017-12-01

    The locations and longevity of terrestrial carbon sinks remain uncertain, however it is clear that in order to predict long-term climate changes the role of the biosphere in surface energy and carbon balance must be understood and incorporated into earth system models (ESMs). Aboveground biomass, the amount of carbon stored in vegetation, is a key component of the terrestrial carbon cycle, representing the balance of uptake through gross primary productivity (GPP), losses from respiration, senescence and mortality over hundreds of years. The best predictions of current and future land-atmosphere fluxes are likely from the integration of process-based knowledge contained in models and information from observations of changes in carbon stocks using data assimilation (DA). By exploiting long times series, it is possible to accurately detect variability and change in carbon cycle dynamics through monitoring ecosystem states, for example biomass derived from vegetation optical depth (VOD), and use this information to initialize models before making predictions. To make maximum use of information about the current state of global ecosystems when using models we have developed a system that combines the Community Land Model (CLM) with the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART), a community tool for ensemble DA. This DA system is highly innovative in its complexity, completeness and capabilities. Here we described a series of activities, using both Observation System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) and real observations, that have allowed us to quantify the potential impact of assimilating VOD data into CLM-DART on future land-atmosphere fluxes. VOD data are particularly suitable to use in this activity due to their long temporal coverage and appropriate scale when combined with CLM, but their absolute values rely on many assumptions. Therefore, we have had to assess the implications of the VOD retrieval algorithms, with an emphasis on detecting uncertainty due to

  11. Evaluating the Credibility of Transport Processes in Simulations of Ozone Recovery using the Global Modeling Initiative Three-dimensional Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strahan, Susan E.; Douglass, Anne R.

    2004-01-01

    The Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) has integrated two 36-year simulations of an ozone recovery scenario with an offline chemistry and tra nsport model using two different meteorological inputs. Physically ba sed diagnostics, derived from satellite and aircraft data sets, are d escribed and then used to evaluate the realism of temperature and transport processes in the simulations. Processes evaluated include barri er formation in the subtropics and polar regions, and extratropical w ave-driven transport. Some diagnostics are especially relevant to sim ulation of lower stratospheric ozone, but most are applicable to any stratospheric simulation. The global temperature evaluation, which is relevant to gas phase chemical reactions, showed that both sets of me teorological fields have near climatological values at all latitudes and seasons at 30 hPa and below. Both simulations showed weakness in upper stratospheric wave driving. The simulation using input from a g eneral circulation model (GMI(GCM)) showed a very good residual circulation in the tropics and Northern Hemisphere. The simulation with inp ut from a data assimilation system (GMI(DAS)) performed better in the midlatitudes than it did at high latitudes. Neither simulation forms a realistic barrier at the vortex edge, leading to uncertainty in the fate of ozone-depleted vortex air. Overall, tracer transport in the offline GML(GCM) has greater fidelity throughout the stratosphere tha n it does in the GMI(DAS)

  12. Global Carbon-and-Conservation Models, Global Eco-States? Ecuador’s Yasuní-ITT Initiative and Governance Implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Conny Davidsen

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The “global carbon age” marks a structural change far beyond the economic realms of implementing carbon trade, affecting the fabric of global environmental governance and its actors. Carbon trade and conservation in the Global South have taken on various forms, and climate change mitigation efforts in light of continued rainforest deforestation are scrambling to establish effective approaches. Ecuador’s Yasuní-ITT Initiative proposes a new global carbon-and-conservation model in the Ecuadorian Amazon that leaves oil reserves of the Yasuní Ishpingo Tambococha Tiputini (ITT oil fields underground, in exchange for international compensation payments that would be based on voluntary contributions of governments and nongovernmental actors in an international conservation partnership and trust fund under the auspices of the United Nations Development Programme. This model suggests far-reaching consequences, as it introduces new global scales for the sharing and management of environmental costs within a framework of neoliberal cost internalization. The analysis in this paper uses the concept of the “ecological state” (Duit, 2008 as a theoretical point of departure to examine the trans-scalar implications of such a carbon-and-conservation model on global governance structures toward a “global ecological state” (or global eco-state.

  13. Global nuclear cleanout initiative 2004

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Edlow, J.; Gruber, G.

    2004-01-01

    Full text: During more than 50 years of Atoms for Peace programmes nuclear materials were spread out worldwide. Stranded nuclear materials from nuclear research are left over without any safe back-end solution. 'Dirty Bombs' or so-called 'Radioactive Dispersal Devices (RDD)' are no longer science fiction since the world experienced the 9/11 attack. Governmental, NGO's and private industry organizations having discussed Global Nuclear Cleanout since then and start to take actions. The US Department of Energy (DOE) has announced to establish a dedicated organization in cooperation with IAEA and start the 'Global Threat Reduction Initiative (GTRI)'. The US government will allocate to that program USD 450 M over the next 10 years. Besides the historical development the paper will focus on the progress of the different initiatives and perspectives to threat reduction. (author)

  14. Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation, Volume 43. MERRA-2; Initial Evaluation of the Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koster, Randal D. (Editor); Bosilovich, Michael G.; Akella, Santha; Lawrence, Coy; Cullather, Richard; Draper, Clara; Gelaro, Ronald; Kovach, Robin; Liu, Qing; Molod, Andrea; hide

    2015-01-01

    The years since the introduction of MERRA have seen numerous advances in the GEOS-5 Data Assimilation System as well as a substantial decrease in the number of observations that can be assimilated into the MERRA system. To allow continued data processing into the future, and to take advantage of several important innovations that could improve system performance, a decision was made to produce MERRA-2, an updated retrospective analysis of the full modern satellite era. One of the many advances in MERRA-2 is a constraint on the global dry mass balance; this allows the global changes in water by the analysis increment to be near zero, thereby minimizing abrupt global interannual variations due to changes in the observing system. In addition, MERRA-2 includes the assimilation of interactive aerosols into the system, a feature of the Earth system absent from previous reanalyses. Also, in an effort to improve land surface hydrology, observations-corrected precipitation forcing is used instead of model-generated precipitation. Overall, MERRA-2 takes advantage of numerous updates to the global modeling and data assimilation system. In this document, we summarize an initial evaluation of the climate in MERRA-2, from the surface to the stratosphere and from the tropics to the poles. Strengths and weaknesses of the MERRA-2 climate are accordingly emphasized.

  15. A polar stratospheric cloud parameterization for the global modeling initiative three-dimensional model and its response to stratospheric aircraft

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Considine, D. B.; Douglass, A. R.; Connell, P. S.; Kinnison, D. E.; Rotman, D. A.

    2000-01-01

    We describe a new parameterization of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) which was written for and incorporated into the three-dimensional (3-D) chemistry and transport model (CTM) developed for NASA's Atmospheric Effects of Aviation Project (AEAP) by the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI). The parameterization was designed to respond to changes in NO y and H 2 O produced by high-speed civilian transport (HSCT) emissions. The parameterization predicts surface area densities (SADs) of both Type 1 and Type 2 PSCs for use in heterogeneous chemistry calculations. Type 1 PSCs are assumed to have a supercooled ternary sulfate (STS) composition, and Type 2 PSCs are treated as water ice with a coexisting nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) phase. Sedimentation is treated by assuming that the PSC particles obey lognormal size distributions, resulting in a realistic mass flux of condensed phase H 2 O and HNO 3 . We examine a simulation of the Southern Hemisphere high-latitude lower stratosphere winter and spring seasons driven by temperature and wind fields from a modified version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Middle Atmosphere Community Climate Model Version 2 (MACCM2). Predicted PSC SADs and median radii for both Type 1 and Type 2 PSCs are consistent with observations. Gas phase HNO 3 and H 2 O concentrations in the high-latitude lower stratosphere qualitatively agree with Cryogenic Limb Array Etalon Spectrometer (CLAES) HNO 3 and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) H 2 O observations. The residual denitrification and dehydration of the model polar vortex after polar winter compares well with atmospheric trace molecule spectroscopy (ATMOS) observations taken during November 1994. When the NO x and H 2 O emissions of a standard 500-aircraft HSCT fleet with a NO x emission index of 5 are added, NO x and H 2 O concentrations in the Southern Hemisphere polar vortex before winter increase by up to 3%. This results in earlier onset of PSC formation, denitrification, and

  16. An effort to improve track and intensity prediction of tropical cyclones through vortex initialization in NCUM-global model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Vivek; Routray, A.; Mallick, Swapan; George, John P.; Rajagopal, E. N.

    2016-05-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) have strong impact on socio-economic conditions of the countries like India, Bangladesh and Myanmar owing to its awful devastating power. This brings in the need of precise forecasting system to predict the tracks and intensities of TCs accurately well in advance. However, it has been a great challenge for major operational meteorological centers over the years. Genesis of TCs over data sparse warm Tropical Ocean adds more difficulty to this. Weak and misplaced vortices at initial time are one of the prime sources of track and intensity errors in the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. Many previous studies have reported the forecast skill of track and intensity of TC improved due to the assimilation of satellite data along with vortex initialization (VI). Keeping this in mind, an attempt has been made to investigate the impact of vortex initialization for simulation of TC using UK-Met office global model, operational at NCMRWF (NCUM). This assessment is carried out by taking the case of a extremely severe cyclonic storm "Chapala" that occurred over Arabian Sea (AS) from 28th October to 3rd November 2015. Two numerical experiments viz. Vort-GTS (Assimilation of GTS observations with VI) and Vort-RAD (Same as Vort-GTS with assimilation of satellite data) are carried out. This vortex initialization study in NCUM model is first of its type over North Indian Ocean (NIO). The model simulation of TC is carried out with five different initial conditions through 24 hour cycles for both the experiments. The results indicate that the vortex initialization with assimilation of satellite data has a positive impact on the track and intensity forecast, landfall time and position error of the TCs.

  17. Global threat reduction initiative (GTRI)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chamberlain, Travis

    2009-01-01

    The Global Threat Reduction Initiative (GTRI) is a vital part of the global efforts to combat nuclear terrorism. GTRI's unique mission to reduce and protect vulnerable nuclear and radiological material located at civilian sites both in the United States and abroad directly addresses recommendations of the bipartisan 9/11 Commission. GTRI efforts are focused on the first line of defense, namely securing or removing vulnerable nuclear and radiological material at the source. The international community has promulgated guidance on the best practice on the technical and administrative aspects of radiological source security, and the GTRI seeks to provide technical assistance to national bodies and individual facilities to adopt this best practice. This presentation will discuss security concepts that are implemented by the GTRI in cooperation with the Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organization's Regional Security of Radioactive Sources Project. (author)

  18. The AgMIP GRIDded Crop Modeling Initiative (AgGRID) and the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliott, Joshua; Muller, Christoff

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is a significant risk for agricultural production. Even under optimistic scenarios for climate mitigation action, present-day agricultural areas are likely to face significant increases in temperatures in the coming decades, in addition to changes in precipitation, cloud cover, and the frequency and duration of extreme heat, drought, and flood events (IPCC, 2013). These factors will affect the agricultural system at the global scale by impacting cultivation regimes, prices, trade, and food security (Nelson et al., 2014a). Global-scale evaluation of crop productivity is a major challenge for climate impact and adaptation assessment. Rigorous global assessments that are able to inform planning and policy will benefit from consistent use of models, input data, and assumptions across regions and time that use mutually agreed protocols designed by the modeling community. To ensure this consistency, large-scale assessments are typically performed on uniform spatial grids, with spatial resolution of typically 10 to 50 km, over specified time-periods. Many distinct crop models and model types have been applied on the global scale to assess productivity and climate impacts, often with very different results (Rosenzweig et al., 2014). These models are based to a large extent on field-scale crop process or ecosystems models and they typically require resolved data on weather, environmental, and farm management conditions that are lacking in many regions (Bondeau et al., 2007; Drewniak et al., 2013; Elliott et al., 2014b; Gueneau et al., 2012; Jones et al., 2003; Liu et al., 2007; M¨uller and Robertson, 2014; Van den Hoof et al., 2011;Waha et al., 2012; Xiong et al., 2014). Due to data limitations, the requirements of consistency, and the computational and practical limitations of running models on a large scale, a variety of simplifying assumptions must generally be made regarding prevailing management strategies on the grid scale in both the baseline and

  19. Modeling Global Water Use for the 21st Century: Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) Initiative and Its Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wada, Y.; Florke, M.; Hanasaki, N.; Eisner, S.; Fischer, G.; Tramberend, S.; Satoh, Y.; van Vliet, M. T. H.; Yillia, P.; Ringler, C.; hide

    2016-01-01

    To sustain growing food demand and increasing standard of living, global water use increased by nearly 6 times during the last 100 years, and continues to grow. As water demands get closer and closer to the water availability in many regions, each drop of water becomes increasingly valuable and water must be managed more efficiently and intensively. However, soaring water use worsens water scarcity conditions already prevalent in semi-arid and arid regions, increasing uncertainty for sustainable food production and economic development. Planning for future development and investments requires that we prepare water projections for the future. However, estimations are complicated because the future of the world's waters will be influenced by a combination of environmental, social, economic, and political factors, and there is only limited knowledge and data available about freshwater resources and how they are being used. The Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative coordinates its work with other ongoing scenario efforts for the sake of establishing a consistent set of new global water scenarios based on the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) and the representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The WFaS "fast track" assessment uses three global water models, namely H08, PCR-GLOBWB, and WaterGAP. This study assesses the state of the art for estimating and projecting water use regionally and globally in a consistent manner. It provides an overview of different approaches, the uncertainty, strengths and weaknesses of the various estimation methods, types of management and policy decisions for which the current estimation methods are useful. We also discuss additional information most needed to be able to improve water use estimates and be able to assess a greater range of management options across the water-energy-climate nexus.

  20. Updated global soil map for the Weather Research and Forecasting model and soil moisture initialization for the Noah land surface model

    Science.gov (United States)

    DY, C. Y.; Fung, J. C. H.

    2016-08-01

    A meteorological model requires accurate initial conditions and boundary conditions to obtain realistic numerical weather predictions. The land surface controls the surface heat and moisture exchanges, which can be determined by the physical properties of the soil and soil state variables, subsequently exerting an effect on the boundary layer meteorology. The initial and boundary conditions of soil moisture are currently obtained via National Centers for Environmental Prediction FNL (Final) Operational Global Analysis data, which are collected operationally in 1° by 1° resolutions every 6 h. Another input to the model is the soil map generated by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations - United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (FAO-UNESCO) soil database, which combines several soil surveys from around the world. Both soil moisture from the FNL analysis data and the default soil map lack accuracy and feature coarse resolutions, particularly for certain areas of China. In this study, we update the global soil map with data from Beijing Normal University in 1 km by 1 km grids and propose an alternative method of soil moisture initialization. Simulations of the Weather Research and Forecasting model show that spinning-up the soil moisture improves near-surface temperature and relative humidity prediction using different types of soil moisture initialization. Explanations of that improvement and improvement of the planetary boundary layer height in performing process analysis are provided.

  1. Global Peace Operations Initiative (GPOI)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kim-Mitchell, Elena

    2005-01-01

    .... In terms of manpower, the initiative aims at deploying 75,000 peace support operations (PSO) troops worldwide over the next 5 years, primarily to Africa, but also to Latin America, Europe, and Asia...

  2. Initiation to global Finslerian geometry

    CERN Document Server

    Akbar-Zadeh, Hassan

    2006-01-01

    After a brief description of the evolution of thinking on Finslerian geometry starting from Riemann, Finsler, Berwald and Elie Cartan, the book gives a clear and precise treatment of this geometry. The first three chapters develop the basic notions and methods, introduced by the author, to reach the global problems in Finslerian Geometry. The next five chapters are independent of each other, and deal with among others the geometry of generalized Einstein manifolds, the classification of Finslerian manifolds of constant sectional curvatures. They also give a treatment of isometric, affine, p

  3. Sensitivity of aerosol indirect forcing and autoconversion to cloud droplet parameterization: an assessment with the NASA Global Modeling Initiative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sotiropoulou, R. P.; Meshkhidze, N.; Nenes, A.

    2006-12-01

    The aerosol indirect forcing is one of the largest sources of uncertainty in assessments of anthropogenic climate change [IPCC, 2001]. Much of this uncertainty arises from the approach used for linking cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) to precursor aerosol. Global Climate Models (GCM) use a wide range of cloud droplet activation mechanisms ranging from empirical [Boucher and Lohmann, 1995] to detailed physically- based formulations [e.g., Abdul-Razzak and Ghan, 2000; Fountoukis and Nenes, 2005]. The objective of this study is to assess the uncertainties in indirect forcing and autoconversion of cloud water to rain caused by the application of different cloud droplet parameterization mechanisms; this is an important step towards constraining the aerosol indirect effects (AIE). Here we estimate the uncertainty in indirect forcing and autoconversion rate using the NASA Global Model Initiative (GMI). The GMI allows easy interchange of meteorological fields, chemical mechanisms and the aerosol microphysical packages. Therefore, it is an ideal tool for assessing the effect of different parameters on aerosol indirect forcing. The aerosol module includes primary emissions, chemical production of sulfate in clear air and in-cloud aqueous phase, gravitational sedimentation, dry deposition, wet scavenging in and below clouds, and hygroscopic growth. Model inputs include SO2 (fossil fuel and natural), black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), mineral dust and sea salt. The meteorological data used in this work were taken from the NASA Data Assimilation Office (DAO) and two different GCMs: the NASA GEOS4 finite volume GCM (FVGCM) and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies version II' (GISS II') GCM. Simulations were carried out for "present day" and "preindustrial" emissions using different meteorological fields (i.e. DAO, FVGCM, GISS II'); cloud droplet number concentration is computed from the correlations of Boucher and Lohmann [1995], Abdul-Razzak and Ghan [2000

  4. IKEA: Global sourcing and sustainable leather initiatives

    OpenAIRE

    Jiang, Yan; Jia, Fu; Gong, Yu

    2018-01-01

    Aims: the aim of this teaching case is to illustrate the Sustainable Global Sourcing (SGS) practices of IKEA influenced by its Global Sourcing (GS) strategy and structure aspects through a case study of the sustainable leather initiative.Scope: this study is developed though 20 face-to-face interviews with IKEA managers in both Sweden and China, covering all the major SGS-related departments i.e. purchasing,sustainability, IWAY, and competence center (sustainable project team).Contribution: w...

  5. Global initiatives to prevent nuclear terrorism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-01-01

    The fight against nuclear and radiological terrorism - someone to blow up a nuclear weapon or spread radioactive material as a 'dirty bomb' that act of terrorism - is one of the most serious threats to international security. The Global Initiative to prevent nuclear terrorism is a Norwegian-sponsored initiative that is aimed directly at combating terrorism by non-state actors. NRPA follow up Norwegian measures, including in Kazakhstan, and verifies that they are implemented and functioning as intended. (AG)

  6. Global Hail Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werner, A.; Sanderson, M.; Hand, W.; Blyth, A.; Groenemeijer, P.; Kunz, M.; Puskeiler, M.; Saville, G.; Michel, G.

    2012-04-01

    Hail risk models are rare for the insurance industry. This is opposed to the fact that average annual hail losses can be large and hail dominates losses for many motor portfolios worldwide. Insufficient observational data, high spatio-temporal variability and data inhomogenity have hindered creation of credible models so far. In January 2012, a selected group of hail experts met at Willis in London in order to discuss ways to model hail risk at various scales. Discussions aimed at improving our understanding of hail occurrence and severity, and covered recent progress in the understanding of microphysical processes and climatological behaviour and hail vulnerability. The final outcome of the meeting was the formation of a global hail risk model initiative and the launch of a realistic global hail model in order to assess hail loss occurrence and severities for the globe. The following projects will be tackled: Microphysics of Hail and hail severity measures: Understand the physical drivers of hail and hailstone size development in different regions on the globe. Proposed factors include updraft and supercooled liquid water content in the troposphere. What are the thresholds drivers of hail formation around the globe? Hail Climatology: Consider ways to build a realistic global climatological set of hail events based on physical parameters including spatial variations in total availability of moisture, aerosols, among others, and using neural networks. Vulnerability, Exposure, and financial model: Use historical losses and event footprints available in the insurance market to approximate fragility distributions and damage potential for various hail sizes for property, motor, and agricultural business. Propagate uncertainty distributions and consider effects of policy conditions along with aggregating and disaggregating exposure and losses. This presentation provides an overview of ideas and tasks that lead towards a comprehensive global understanding of hail risk for

  7. A metadata initiative for global information discovery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christian, E.

    2001-01-01

    The Global Information Locator Service (GILS) encompasses a global vision framed by the fundamental values of open societies. Societal values such as a free flow of information impose certain requirements on the society's information infrastructure. These requirements in turn shape the various laws, policies, standards, and technologies that determine the infrastructure design. A particular focus of GILS is the requirement to provide the means for people to discover sources of data and information. Information discovery in the GILS vision is designed to be decentralized yet coherent, and globally comprehensive yet useful for detailed data. This article introduces basic concepts and design issues, with emphasis on the techniques by which GILS supports interoperability. It explains the practical implications of GILS for the common roles of organizations involved in handling information, from content provider through system engineer and intermediary to searcher. The article provides examples of GILS initiatives in various types of communities: bibliographic, geographic, environmental, and government. ?? 2001 Elsevier Science Inc.

  8. Global Volcano Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparks, R. S. J.; Loughlin, S. C.; Cottrell, E.; Valentine, G.; Newhall, C.; Jolly, G.; Papale, P.; Takarada, S.; Crosweller, S.; Nayembil, M.; Arora, B.; Lowndes, J.; Connor, C.; Eichelberger, J.; Nadim, F.; Smolka, A.; Michel, G.; Muir-Wood, R.; Horwell, C.

    2012-04-01

    Over 600 million people live close enough to active volcanoes to be affected when they erupt. Volcanic eruptions cause loss of life, significant economic losses and severe disruption to people's lives, as highlighted by the recent eruption of Mount Merapi in Indonesia. The eruption of Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland in 2010 illustrated the potential of even small eruptions to have major impact on the modern world through disruption of complex critical infrastructure and business. The effects in the developing world on economic growth and development can be severe. There is evidence that large eruptions can cause a change in the earth's climate for several years afterwards. Aside from meteor impact and possibly an extreme solar event, very large magnitude explosive volcanic eruptions may be the only natural hazard that could cause a global catastrophe. GVM is a growing international collaboration that aims to create a sustainable, accessible information platform on volcanic hazard and risk. We are designing and developing an integrated database system of volcanic hazards, vulnerability and exposure with internationally agreed metadata standards. GVM will establish methodologies for analysis of the data (eg vulnerability indices) to inform risk assessment, develop complementary hazards models and create relevant hazards and risk assessment tools. GVM will develop the capability to anticipate future volcanism and its consequences. NERC is funding the start-up of this initiative for three years from November 2011. GVM builds directly on the VOGRIPA project started as part of the GRIP (Global Risk Identification Programme) in 2004 under the auspices of the World Bank and UN. Major international initiatives and partners such as the Smithsonian Institution - Global Volcanism Program, State University of New York at Buffalo - VHub, Earth Observatory of Singapore - WOVOdat and many others underpin GVM.

  9. The Open Global Glacier Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marzeion, B.; Maussion, F.

    2017-12-01

    Mountain glaciers are one of the few remaining sub-systems of the global climate system for which no globally applicable, open source, community-driven model exists. Notable examples from the ice sheet community include the Parallel Ice Sheet Model or Elmer/Ice. While the atmospheric modeling community has a long tradition of sharing models (e.g. the Weather Research and Forecasting model) or comparing them (e.g. the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project or CMIP), recent initiatives originating from the glaciological community show a new willingness to better coordinate global research efforts following the CMIP example (e.g. the Glacier Model Intercomparison Project or the Glacier Ice Thickness Estimation Working Group). In the recent past, great advances have been made in the global availability of data and methods relevant for glacier modeling, spanning glacier outlines, automatized glacier centerline identification, bed rock inversion methods, and global topographic data sets. Taken together, these advances now allow the ice dynamics of glaciers to be modeled on a global scale, provided that adequate modeling platforms are available. Here, we present the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM), developed to provide a global scale, modular, and open source numerical model framework for consistently simulating past and future global scale glacier change. Global not only in the sense of leading to meaningful results for all glaciers combined, but also for any small ensemble of glaciers, e.g. at the headwater catchment scale. Modular to allow combinations of different approaches to the representation of ice flow and surface mass balance, enabling a new kind of model intercomparison. Open source so that the code can be read and used by anyone and so that new modules can be added and discussed by the community, following the principles of open governance. Consistent in order to provide uncertainty measures at all realizable scales.

  10. NASA NDATC Global Climate Change Education Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, B.; Wood, E.; Meyer, D.; Maynard, N.; Pandya, R. E.

    2009-12-01

    This project aligns with NASA’s Strategic Goal 3A - “Study Earth from space to advance scientific understanding and meet societal needs and focuses on funding from the GCCE Funding Category 2: Strengthen the Teaching and Learning About Global Climate Change Within Formal Education Systems. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Report (2007) those communities with the least amount of resources will be most vulnerable, and least likely to adapt to the impacts brought on by a changing climate. Further, the level of vulnerability of these communities is directly correlated with their ability to implement short, medium and long range mitigation measures. The North Dakota Association of Tribal Colleges (NDATC) has established a climate change education initiative among its six member Tribal Colleges and Universities (TCUs). The goal of this project is to enhance the TCUs capacity to educate their constituents on the science of climate change and mitigation strategies specifically as they apply to Indian Country. NDATC is comprised of six American Indian tribally chartered colleges (TCUs) which include: Cankdeska Cikana Community College, serving the Spirit Lake Dakota Nation; Fort Berthold Community College, serving the Mandan, Hidatsa, and Arikara Nation; Sitting Bull College, serving the Hunkpapa Lakota and Dakota Nation; Turtle Mountain Community College, serving the Turtle Mountain Band of Chippewa; Sisseton Wahpeton College serving the Sisseton and Wahpeton Dakota Nation, and United Tribes Technical College, serving over 70 Tribal groups from across the United States. The purpose of this project is to (1) increase awareness of climate change and its potential impacts in Indian Country through education for students, faculty and presidents of the TCUs as well as Tribal leadership; (2) increase the capacity of TCUs to respond to this global threat on behalf of tribal people; (3) develop climate change mitigation strategies relevant to Indian

  11. The Global Flood Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, P.; Huddelston, M.; Michel, G.; Thompson, S.; Heynert, K.; Pickering, C.; Abbott Donnelly, I.; Fewtrell, T.; Galy, H.; Sperna Weiland, F.; Winsemius, H.; Weerts, A.; Nixon, S.; Davies, P.; Schiferli, D.

    2012-04-01

    Recently, a Global Flood Model (GFM) initiative has been proposed by Willis, UK Met Office, Esri, Deltares and IBM. The idea is to create a global community platform that enables better understanding of the complexities of flood risk assessment to better support the decisions, education and communication needed to mitigate flood risk. The GFM will provide tools for assessing the risk of floods, for devising mitigation strategies such as land-use changes and infrastructure improvements, and for enabling effective pre- and post-flood event response. The GFM combines humanitarian and commercial motives. It will benefit: - The public, seeking to preserve personal safety and property; - State and local governments, seeking to safeguard economic activity, and improve resilience; - NGOs, similarly seeking to respond proactively to flood events; - The insurance sector, seeking to understand and price flood risk; - Large corporations, seeking to protect global operations and supply chains. The GFM is an integrated and transparent set of modules, each composed of models and data. For each module, there are two core elements: a live "reference version" (a worked example) and a framework of specifications, which will allow development of alternative versions. In the future, users will be able to work with the reference version or substitute their own models and data. If these meet the specification for the relevant module, they will interoperate with the rest of the GFM. Some "crowd-sourced" modules could even be accredited and published to the wider GFM community. Our intent is to build on existing public, private and academic work, improve local adoption, and stimulate the development of multiple - but compatible - alternatives, so strengthening mankind's ability to manage flood impacts. The GFM is being developed and managed by a non-profit organization created for the purpose. The business model will be inspired from open source software (eg Linux): - for non-profit usage

  12. Global Model Forecasts of 2005 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Formations After Post-Processing to Account for Initial Intensity

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Chesser, Stephen G

    2008-01-01

    ...). Histograms of model analyses of the 850 500 mb relative vorticity and the 700 500 mb warm core, which are derived from the VORTRACK files, are created for CARQ intensities of 20 kt, 25 kt, 30 kt...

  13. The Global Tsunami Model (GTM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorito, S.; Basili, R.; Harbitz, C. B.; Løvholt, F.; Polet, J.; Thio, H. K.

    2017-12-01

    The tsunamis occurred worldwide in the last two decades have highlighted the need for a thorough understanding of the risk posed by relatively infrequent but often disastrous tsunamis and the importance of a comprehensive and consistent methodology for quantifying the hazard. In the last few years, several methods for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis have been developed and applied to different parts of the world. In an effort to coordinate and streamline these activities and make progress towards implementing the Sendai Framework of Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) we have initiated a Global Tsunami Model (GTM) working group with the aim of i) enhancing our understanding of tsunami hazard and risk on a global scale and developing standards and guidelines for it, ii) providing a portfolio of validated tools for probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessment at a range of scales, and iii) developing a global tsunami hazard reference model. This GTM initiative has grown out of the tsunami component of the Global Assessment of Risk (GAR15), which has resulted in an initial global model of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk. Started as an informal gathering of scientists interested in advancing tsunami hazard analysis, the GTM is currently in the process of being formalized through letters of interest from participating institutions. The initiative has now been endorsed by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) and the World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). We will provide an update on the state of the project and the overall technical framework, and discuss the technical issues that are currently being addressed, including earthquake source recurrence models, the use of aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty, and preliminary results for a probabilistic global hazard assessment, which is an update of the model included in UNISDR GAR15.

  14. An initial study on modeling the global thermal and fast reactor fuel cycle mass flow using Vensim

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brinton, Samuel

    2008-01-01

    This study concentrated on modeling the construction and decommissioning rates of five major facilities comprising the nuclear fuel cycle: (1) current LWRs with a 60-year service life, (2) new LWRs burning MOX fuel, (3) new LWRs to replace units in the current fleet, (4) new FRs to be added to the fleet, and (5) new spent fuel reprocessing facilities. This is a mass flow mode starting from uranium ore and following it to spent forms. The visual dynamic modeling program Vensim was used to create a system of equations and variables to track the mass flows from enrichment, fabrication, burn-up, and the back-end of the fuel cycle. The scenarios considered provide estimates of the uranium ore requirements, quantities of LLW and HLW production, and the number of reprocessing facilities necessary to reduce recently reported levels of spent fuel inventory. Preliminary results indicate that the entire national spent fuel inventory produced in the next 100 years can be reprocessed with a reprocessing plant built every 11 years (small capacity) or even as low as every 23 years (large capacity). (authors)

  15. Global Delivery Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manning, Stephan; Larsen, Marcus M.; Bharati, Pratyush

    2013-01-01

    This article examines antecedents and performance implications of global delivery models (GDMs) in global business services. GDMs require geographically distributed operations to exploit both proximity to clients and time-zone spread for efficient service delivery. We propose and empirically show...

  16. Subsidiary-level determinants of global initiatives in multinational corporations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Williams, C.

    2009-01-01

    This article examines subsidiary-level factors that promote global initiatives in MNCs. Global initiatives are a key capability of MNCs that domestic firms do not possess, yet there has been little research on how MNCs promote initiatives on a global basis. I draw principally on the knowledge-based

  17. Making a Difference: a Global Geoscience Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nickless, E.

    2013-05-01

    Since 2009, an informal group, comprising four former board members of the International Year of Planet Earth, has been promoting the concept of a so-called Global Geoscientific Initiative. The GGI should: i.Be inclusive, involve a geoscience community, which is broad both in terms of discipline and nationality, and involve the social sciences; ii.Have a clear socio-economic context and global societal relevance; iii.Focus on a globally significant science theme and preferably involve global processes; iv.Attract the support of geoscientific communities, funding agencies, governments and other institutions in many countries, under the umbrella of UNESCO, ICSU and its geoscientific unions. A series of five town hall meetings have been held at which usually three invited, well-respected figures from the geoscientific community gave presentations. Those presentations were followed by discussion about the importance or otherwise of particular areas of science, and the need to engage better with legislators, policy makers, the media and the lay public. No one challenged the desirability of a large-scale programme that would attract researchers from many geoscientific disciplines and potentially involve the geo-unions. The discussions can be summarised under three broad themes: i.Mineral and hydrocarbon resources and their waste products; ii.Living with natural hazards; iii.Strategic Earth science in Africa through the Africa Alive corridors. During the course of development of the GGI, ICSU has issued a number of papers, most recently a strategic plan, covering the period 2012-2017, working parties have been undertaking foresight analysis and there have also been discussions concerning regional environmental change: human action and adaptation with the question "what does it take to meet the Belmont challenge?". The Belmont Forum brings together a number of funding agencies and could provide the resource to enable some initiative to go forward. More recently a programme

  18. Global Awareness in the Classroom: Global Classroom Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Education Canada, 2004

    2004-01-01

    As countries around the world move toward global integration, knowledge of how Canada interrelates globally is becoming an increasingly useful asset. It is important that young Canadians learn what it means to become responsible global citizens. Awareness about global issues and appreciation of Canada's efforts in international development offer a…

  19. Global ice sheet modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hughes, T.J.; Fastook, J.L.

    1994-05-01

    The University of Maine conducted this study for Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate modeling task for site characterization of the potential nuclear waste respository site at Yucca Mountain, NV. The purpose of the study was to develop a global ice sheet dynamics model that will forecast the three-dimensional configuration of global ice sheets for specific climate change scenarios. The objective of the third (final) year of the work was to produce ice sheet data for glaciation scenarios covering the next 100,000 years. This was accomplished using both the map-plane and flowband solutions of our time-dependent, finite-element gridpoint model. The theory and equations used to develop the ice sheet models are presented. Three future scenarios were simulated by the model and results are discussed

  20. Global initiatives to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helme, N.; Gille, J.A.

    1994-01-01

    Joint implementation (JI) is a provision, included in the Framework Convention on Climate Change, that allows for two or more nations to jointly plan and implement a greenhouse gas or offsetting project. Joint implementation is important environmentally for two principal reasons: (1) it provides an opportunity to select projects on a global basis that maximize both greenhouse gas reduction benefits and other environmental benefits such as air pollution reduction while minimizing cost, and (2) it creates incentives for developing countries as well as multinational companies to begin to evaluate potential investments through a climate-friendly lens. While the debate on how to establish the criteria and institutional capacity necessary to encourage joint implementation projects continues in the international community, the US government is creating new incentives for US companies to develop joint implementation pilot projects now. While delegates to the United Nations' International Negotiating Committee (INC) debate whether to permit all Parties to the convention to participate in JI, opportunities in Eastern and Central Europe and the former Soviet states abound. The US has taken a leadership role in joint implementation, establishing two complementary domestic programs that allow US companies to measure, track and score their net greenhouse gas reduction achievements now. With a financial investment by three US utilities, the Center for Clean Air Policy is developing a fuel-switching and energy efficiency project in the city of Decin in the Czech Republic which offers a concrete example of what a real-world JI project could look like. The Decin project provides an ideal test case for assessing the adequacy and potential impact of the draft criteria for the US Initiative on Joint Implementation, as well as for the draft criteria prepared by the INC Secretariat

  1. Global peatland initiation driven by regionally asynchronous warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, Paul J; Swindles, Graeme T; Valdes, Paul J; Ivanovic, Ruza F; Gregoire, Lauren J; Smith, Mark W; Tarasov, Lev; Haywood, Alan M; Bacon, Karen L

    2018-05-08

    Widespread establishment of peatlands since the Last Glacial Maximum represents the activation of a globally important carbon sink, but the drivers of peat initiation are unclear. The role of climate in peat initiation is particularly poorly understood. We used a general circulation model to simulate local changes in climate during the initiation of 1,097 peatlands around the world. We find that peat initiation in deglaciated landscapes in both hemispheres was driven primarily by warming growing seasons, likely through enhanced plant productivity, rather than by any increase in effective precipitation. In Western Siberia, which remained ice-free throughout the last glacial period, the initiation of the world's largest peatland complex was globally unique in that it was triggered by an increase in effective precipitation that inhibited soil respiration and allowed wetland plant communities to establish. Peat initiation in the tropics was only weakly related to climate change, and appears to have been driven primarily by nonclimatic mechanisms such as waterlogging due to tectonic subsidence. Our findings shed light on the genesis and Holocene climate space of one of the world's most carbon-dense ecosystem types, with implications for understanding trajectories of ecological change under changing future climates.

  2. Regionalizing global climate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pitman, A.J.; Arneth, A.; Ganzeveld, L.N.

    2012-01-01

    Global climate models simulate the Earth's climate impressively at scales of continents and greater. At these scales, large-scale dynamics and physics largely define the climate. At spatial scales relevant to policy makers, and to impacts and adaptation, many other processes may affect regional and

  3. For a Global HTR Marketing Initiative

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bredimas, Alexandre; Venneri, Francesco; Richards, Matthew

    2014-01-01

    HTRs are at a crossroads in their history. The technology is proven and the current technical developments relatively mastered but the marketing track record is disappointing. This paper comes to the conclusion that an international, collaborative marketing and communication plan must be implemented in order to address the marketing bottleneck of HTRs. The paper reflects about the HTR product specificities, its unique selling points and its positioning against other nuclear designs and gas cogeneration. It summarises the global market status and demonstrates that the global market for HTRs is there, for electricity generation, industrial cogeneration and polygeneration. The paper finally argues that HTR vendors have a shared interest to unite in order to succeed in activating the market demand for HTR, and suggests an action plan for an international collaboration among HTR vendors to market and communicate globally on HTRs and reach together a critical mass of business leads worldwide, a mutually beneficial outcome. (author)

  4. Leadership Development Initiative: Growing Global Leaders… Advancing Palliative Care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferris, Frank D; Moore, Shannon Y; Callaway, Mary V; Foley, Kathleen M

    2018-02-01

    The International Palliative Care Leadership Development Initiative (LDI) was a model demonstration project that aimed to expand the global network of palliative care leaders in low- and moderate-resource countries who are well positioned to apply their new leadership skills. Thirty-nine palliative medicine physicians from 25 countries successfully completed the two-year curriculum that included three thematic residential courses, mentorship, and site visits by senior global palliative care leaders and personal projects to apply their new leadership skills. The focus on self-reflection, leadership behaviors and practices, strategic planning, high-level communication, and teaching skills led to significant personal and professional transformation among the participants, mentors, and the LDI team. The resulting residential course curriculum and the personal leadership stories and biosketches of the leaders are now available open access at IPCRC.net. Already, within their first-year postgraduation, the leaders are using their new leadership skills to grow palliative care capacity through significant changes in policy, improved opioid/other medication availability, new and enhanced educational curricula and continuing education activities, and development/expansion of palliative care programs in their organizations and regions. We are not aware of another palliative care initiative that achieves the global reach and ripple effect that LDI has produced. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Hospice and Palliative Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Global Explorers Journaling and Reflection Initiative

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Bennion

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Research suggests that journaling will increase reflection and improve program outcomes (Bain, et al, 1999; Duerden, et al, 2012 This study involved a partnership with a non-profit, Global Explorers (GEx, which provides international immersion experiences for youth. Their programs are designed to teach youth participants principles of leadership, environmental awareness, service, and science. This study, which tested whether teaching journaling techniques to youth program facilitators would have a positive impact on participant outcomes, addressed the following hypotheses: 1 Greater training in reflective thinking among participants would be associated with higher outcome scores, and 2 Participants in the intervention group (facilitators trained in journaling pedagogy would show greater increases in reflective thinking than comparison group members. Results based on participant self-assessment were significant in testing the first hypothesis; reflective thinking is positively associated with outcome measures, but the intervention group did not show increases in reflective thinking.

  6. Skill of a global seasonal streamflow forecasting system, relative roles of initial conditions and meteorological forcing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Candogan Yossef, N.; Winsemius, H.C.; Weerts, A.; Van Beek, R.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2013-01-01

    We investigate the relative contributions of initial conditions (ICs) and meteorological forcing (MF) to the skill of the global seasonal streamflow forecasting system FEWS-World, using the global hydrological model PCRaster Global Water Balance. Potential improvement in forecasting skill through

  7. Think Globally, Act Locally -- Global Maritime Partnership Initiative and the Necessity for Cooperation and Coalition

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Reller, Jason S

    2008-01-01

    ... to "police the global commons and suppress common threats." The Global Maritime Partnership Initiative, or GMPI, is intended to play a major role in this effort as one embodiment of the cooperation envisioned...

  8. Global polio eradication initiative: lessons learned and legacy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cochi, Stephen L; Freeman, Andrew; Guirguis, Sherine; Jafari, Hamid; Aylward, Bruce

    2014-11-01

    The world is on the verge of achieving global polio eradication. During >25 years of operations, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) has mobilized and trained millions of volunteers, social mobilizers, and health workers; accessed households untouched by other health initiatives; mapped and brought health interventions to chronically neglected and underserved communities; and established a standardized, real-time global surveillance and response capacity. It is important to document the lessons learned from polio eradication, especially because it is one of the largest ever global health initiatives. The health community has an obligation to ensure that these lessons and the knowledge generated are shared and contribute to real, sustained changes in our approach to global health. We have summarized what we believe are 10 leading lessons learned from the polio eradication initiative. We have the opportunity and obligation to build a better future by applying the lessons learned from GPEI and its infrastructure and unique functions to other global health priorities and initiatives. In so doing, we can extend the global public good gained by ending for all time one of the world's most devastating diseases by also ensuring that these investments provide public health dividends and benefits for years to come. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America 2014. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

  9. Responding to Globalization and Urban Conflict: Human Rights City Initiatives

    OpenAIRE

    Jackie Smith

    2018-01-01

    Expanding globalization and urbanization have intensified the threats to human rights for many vulnerable groups and have restricted resources available to the primary guarantors of these rights—local authorities. Human rights cities initiatives are bottom-up efforts to advance human rights implementation in local contexts. They are emerging around the world in response to the global pressures on cities that intensify urban inequality and conflict. In this article I discuss how global changes...

  10. WHO Initiative to Estimate the Global Burden of Foodborne Diseases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Havelaar, Arie H.; Cawthorne, Amy; Angulo, Fred

    2013-01-01

    BackgroundThe public health impact of foodborne diseases globally is unknown. The WHO Initiative to Estimate the Global Burden of Foodborne Diseases was launched out of the need to fill this data gap. It is anticipated that this effort will enable policy makers and other stakeholders to set...... appropriate, evidence-informed priorities in the area of food safety. MethodsThe Initiative aims to provide estimates on the global burden of foodborne diseases by age, sex, and region; strengthen country capacity for conducting burden of foodborne disease assessments in parallel with food safety policy...

  11. On global error estimation and control for initial value problems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Lang (Jens); J.G. Verwer (Jan)

    2007-01-01

    textabstractThis paper addresses global error estimation and control for initial value problems for ordinary differential equations. The focus lies on a comparison between a novel approach based onthe adjoint method combined with a small sample statistical initialization and the classical approach

  12. On global error estimation and control for initial value problems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lang, J.; Verwer, J.G.

    2007-01-01

    Abstract. This paper addresses global error estimation and control for initial value problems for ordinary differential equations. The focus lies on a comparison between a novel approach based on the adjoint method combined with a small sample statistical initialization and the classical approach

  13. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R.

    1994-05-01

    The scope of the report is to present the results of the fourth year's work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals

  14. DELTAS: A new Global Delta Sustainability Initiative (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foufoula-Georgiou, E.

    2013-12-01

    , Vietnam, and Canada. Key components of the DELTAS Sustainability Initiative are: integrated research on deltas as coupled socio-ecological systems undergoing change (Delta-SRES), a global delta data depository (Delta-DAT), a suite of open access delta risk assessment and decision support modeling tools (Delta-RADS), and the coordinated demonstration of these activities in deltas around the world (Delta-ACT).

  15. GEM - The Global Earthquake Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolka, A.

    2009-04-01

    Over 500,000 people died in the last decade due to earthquakes and tsunamis, mostly in the developing world, where the risk is increasing due to rapid population growth. In many seismic regions, no hazard and risk models exist, and even where models do exist, they are intelligible only by experts, or available only for commercial purposes. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) answers the need for an openly accessible risk management tool. GEM is an internationally sanctioned public private partnership initiated by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) which will establish an authoritative standard for calculating and communicating earthquake hazard and risk, and will be designed to serve as the critical instrument to support decisions and actions that reduce earthquake losses worldwide. GEM will integrate developments on the forefront of scientific and engineering knowledge of earthquakes, at global, regional and local scale. The work is organized in three modules: hazard, risk, and socio-economic impact. The hazard module calculates probabilities of earthquake occurrence and resulting shaking at any given location. The risk module calculates fatalities, injuries, and damage based on expected shaking, building vulnerability, and the distribution of population and of exposed values and facilities. The socio-economic impact module delivers tools for making educated decisions to mitigate and manage risk. GEM will be a versatile online tool, with open source code and a map-based graphical interface. The underlying data will be open wherever possible, and its modular input and output will be adapted to multiple user groups: scientists and engineers, risk managers and decision makers in the public and private sectors, and the public-at- large. GEM will be the first global model for seismic risk assessment at a national and regional scale, and aims to achieve broad scientific participation and independence. Its development will occur in a

  16. Global Delivery Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manning, Stephan; Møller Larsen, Marcus; Bharati, Pratyush

    -zone spread allowing for 24/7 service delivery and access to resources. Based on comprehensive data we show that providers are likely to establish GDM configurations when clients value access to globally distributed talent pools and speed of service delivery, and in particular when services are highly...

  17. Global Delivery Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manning, Stephan; Møller Larsen, Marcus; Bharati, Pratyush M.

    2015-01-01

    antecedents and contingencies of setting up GDM structures. Based on comprehensive data we show that providers are likely to establish GDM location configurations when clients value access to globally distributed talent and speed of service delivery, in particular when services are highly commoditized...

  18. The Global Reporting Initiative: What Value is Added?

    OpenAIRE

    W. Richard Sherman

    2011-01-01

    This paper explores the extent to which the Global Reporting Initiative G3 Reporting Framework adds value to the external reporting of a companys financial, environmental and social performance. This inquiry takes the form of analyzing the content of the published sustainability reports of well-known companies to compare and contrast the information communicated in these reports.

  19. Global nuclear material control model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dreicer, J.S.; Rutherford, D.A.

    1996-01-01

    The nuclear danger can be reduced by a system for global management, protection, control, and accounting as part of a disposition program for special nuclear materials. The development of an international fissile material management and control regime requires conceptual research supported by an analytical and modeling tool that treats the nuclear fuel cycle as a complete system. Such a tool must represent the fundamental data, information, and capabilities of the fuel cycle including an assessment of the global distribution of military and civilian fissile material inventories, a representation of the proliferation pertinent physical processes, and a framework supportive of national or international perspective. They have developed a prototype global nuclear material management and control systems analysis capability, the Global Nuclear Material Control (GNMC) model. The GNMC model establishes the framework for evaluating the global production, disposition, and safeguards and security requirements for fissile nuclear material

  20. Economic analysis of the global polio eradication initiative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duintjer Tebbens, Radboud J; Pallansch, Mark A; Cochi, Stephen L; Wassilak, Steven G F; Linkins, Jennifer; Sutter, Roland W; Aylward, R Bruce; Thompson, Kimberly M

    2010-12-16

    The global polio eradication initiative (GPEI), which started in 1988, represents the single largest, internationally coordinated public health project to date. Completion remains within reach, with type 2 wild polioviruses apparently eradicated since 1999 and fewer than 2000 annual paralytic poliomyelitis cases of wild types 1 and 3 reported since then. This economic analysis of the GPEI reflects the status of the program as of February 2010, including full consideration of post-eradication policies. For the GPEI intervention, we consider the actual pre-eradication experience to date followed by two distinct potential future post-eradication vaccination policies. We estimate GPEI costs based on actual and projected expenditures and poliomyelitis incidence using reported numbers corrected for underreporting and model projections. For the comparator, which assumes only routine vaccination for polio historically and into the future (i.e., no GPEI), we estimate poliomyelitis incidence using a dynamic infection transmission model and costs based on numbers of vaccinated children. Cost-effectiveness ratios for the GPEI vs. only routine vaccination qualify as highly cost-effective based on standard criteria. We estimate incremental net benefits of the GPEI between 1988 and 2035 of approximately 40-50 billion dollars (2008 US dollars; 1988 net present values). Despite the high costs of achieving eradication in low-income countries, low-income countries account for approximately 85% of the total net benefits generated by the GPEI in the base case analysis. The total economic costs saved per prevented paralytic poliomyelitis case drive the incremental net benefits, which become positive even if we estimate the loss in productivity as a result of disability as below the recommended value of one year in average per-capita gross national income per disability-adjusted life year saved. Sensitivity analysis suggests that the finding of positive net benefits of the GPEI remains

  1. Global health initiative investments and health systems strengthening: a content analysis of global fund investments

    OpenAIRE

    Warren, Ashley E; Wyss, Kaspar; Shakarishvili, George; Atun, Rifat; de Savigny, Don

    2013-01-01

    Background: Millions of dollars are invested annually under the umbrella of national health systems strengthening. Global health initiatives provide funding for low- and middle-income countries through disease-oriented programmes while maintaining that the interventions simultaneously strengthen systems. However, it is as yet unclear which, and to what extent, system-level interventions are being funded by these initiatives, nor is it clear how much funding they allocate to disease-specific a...

  2. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R.

    1994-05-01

    This report was prepared by the Applied Research Corporation (ARC), College Station, Texas, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate studies task. The task supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and is part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work is under the overall direction of the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), US Department of Energy Headquarters, Washington, DC. The scope of the report is to present the results of the third year's work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain several studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals

  3. The Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) in Pakistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadeem, Nighat Jahan

    2016-11-01

    The Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) has significantly reduced the worldwide incidence of poliomyelitis. However, polio remains endemic in Pakistan which poses a threat to the success of the GPEI. Issues faced by Pakistan relate to politics, terrorism, war, natural disasters, funding constraints, misconceptions and inadequate infrastructure. These contribute in hampering the aims of the GPEI and allow the deadly poliovirus to maintain its reservoir in Pakistan. Until polio is completely eradicated, all countries remain at risk of its re-emergence and this is of grave concern as potentially it could reverse the polio-free certified status of a whole World Health Organisation (WHO) region. With the increase in global travel and international migration, even the smallest potential risk should not be taken lightly. Recommendations are made to help to improve the state of polio in Pakistan to make full use of the GPEI investment and move towards a polio-free world.

  4. Modelling MIZ dynamics in a global model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rynders, Stefanie; Aksenov, Yevgeny; Feltham, Daniel; Nurser, George; Naveira Garabato, Alberto

    2016-04-01

    Exposure of large, previously ice-covered areas of the Arctic Ocean to the wind and surface ocean waves results in the Arctic pack ice cover becoming more fragmented and mobile, with large regions of ice cover evolving into the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ). The need for better climate predictions, along with growing economic activity in the Polar Oceans, necessitates climate and forecasting models that can simulate fragmented sea ice with a greater fidelity. Current models are not fully fit for the purpose, since they neither model surface ocean waves in the MIZ, nor account for the effect of floe fragmentation on drag, nor include sea ice rheology that represents both the now thinner pack ice and MIZ ice dynamics. All these processes affect the momentum transfer to the ocean. We present initial results from a global ocean model NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) coupled to the Los Alamos sea ice model CICE. The model setup implements a novel rheological formulation for sea ice dynamics, accounting for ice floe collisions, thus offering a seamless framework for pack ice and MIZ simulations. The effect of surface waves on ice motion is included through wave pressure and the turbulent kinetic energy of ice floes. In the multidecadal model integrations we examine MIZ and basin scale sea ice and oceanic responses to the changes in ice dynamics. We analyse model sensitivities and attribute them to key sea ice and ocean dynamical mechanisms. The results suggest that the effect of the new ice rheology is confined to the MIZ. However with the current increase in summer MIZ area, which is projected to continue and may become the dominant type of sea ice in the Arctic, we argue that the effects of the combined sea ice rheology will be noticeable in large areas of the Arctic Ocean, affecting sea ice and ocean. With this study we assert that to make more accurate sea ice predictions in the changing Arctic, models need to include MIZ dynamics and physics.

  5. Sulfur dioxide initiates global climate change in four ways

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, Peter L.

    2009-01-01

    Global climate change, prior to the 20th century, appears to have been initiated primarily by major changes in volcanic activity. Sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) is the most voluminous chemically active gas emitted by volcanoes and is readily oxidized to sulfuric acid normally within weeks. But trace amounts of SO 2 exert significant influence on climate. All major historic volcanic eruptions have formed sulfuric acid aerosols in the lower stratosphere that cooled the earth's surface ∼ 0.5 o C for typically three years. While such events are currently happening once every 80 years, there are times in geologic history when they occurred every few to a dozen years. These were times when the earth was cooled incrementally into major ice ages. There have also been two dozen times during the past 46,000 years when major volcanic eruptions occurred every year or two or even several times per year for decades. Each of these times was contemporaneous with very rapid global warming. Large volumes of SO 2 erupted frequently appear to overdrive the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere resulting in very rapid warming. Such warming and associated acid rain becomes extreme when millions of cubic kilometers of basalt are erupted in much less than one million years. These are the times of the greatest mass extinctions. When major volcanic eruptions do not occur for decades to hundreds of years, the atmosphere can oxidize all pollutants, leading to a very thin atmosphere, global cooling and decadal drought. Prior to the 20th century, increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) followed increases in temperature initiated by changes in SO 2 . By 1962, man burning fossil fuels was adding SO 2 to the atmosphere at a rate equivalent to one 'large' volcanic eruption each 1.7 years. Global temperatures increased slowly from 1890 to 1950 as anthropogenic sulfur increased slowly. Global temperatures increased more rapidly after 1950 as the rate of anthropogenic sulfur emissions increased. By

  6. Global initiatives to tackle organ trafficking and transplant tourism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagheri, Alireza; Delmonico, Francis L

    2013-11-01

    The increasing gap between organ supply and demand has opened the door for illegal organ sale, trafficking of human organs, tissues and cells, as well as transplant tourism. Currently, underprivileged and vulnerable populations in resource-poor countries are a major source of organs for rich patient-tourists who can afford to purchase organs at home or abroad. This paper presents a summary of international initiatives, such as World Health Organization's Principle Guidelines, The Declaration of Istanbul, Asian Task Force Recommendations, as well as UNESCO's and the United Nation's initiatives against trafficking of human organs, tissues, cells, and transplant tourism. Beyond the summary, it calls for more practical measures to be taken to implement the existing guidelines and recommendations, in order to prevent exploitation of the poor as organ providers. The paper suggests that an international legally binding agreement in criminalizing organ trafficking would be a step forward to bring a change in the global picture of organ trafficking and transplant tourism.

  7. Coordinating the Global Information Grid Initiative with the NG9-1-1 Initiative

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Michael Schmitt

    2008-05-01

    As the Department of Defense develops the Global Information Grid, the Department of Transportation develops the Next Generation 9-1-1 system. Close examinations of these initiatives show that the two are similar in architectures, applications, and communications interoperability. These similarities are extracted from the lowest user level to the highest commander rank that will be involved in each network. Once the similarities are brought into perspective, efforts should be made to collaborate between the two departments.

  8. Global scale groundwater flow model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutanudjaja, Edwin; de Graaf, Inge; van Beek, Ludovicus; Bierkens, Marc

    2013-04-01

    As the world's largest accessible source of freshwater, groundwater plays vital role in satisfying the basic needs of human society. It serves as a primary source of drinking water and supplies water for agricultural and industrial activities. During times of drought, groundwater sustains water flows in streams, rivers, lakes and wetlands, and thus supports ecosystem habitat and biodiversity, while its large natural storage provides a buffer against water shortages. Yet, the current generation of global scale hydrological models does not include a groundwater flow component that is a crucial part of the hydrological cycle and allows the simulation of groundwater head dynamics. In this study we present a steady-state MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh, 1988) groundwater model on the global scale at 5 arc-minutes resolution. Aquifer schematization and properties of this groundwater model were developed from available global lithological model (e.g. Dürr et al., 2005; Gleeson et al., 2010; Hartmann and Moorsdorff, in press). We force the groundwtaer model with the output from the large-scale hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB (van Beek et al., 2011), specifically the long term net groundwater recharge and average surface water levels derived from routed channel discharge. We validated calculated groundwater heads and depths with available head observations, from different regions, including the North and South America and Western Europe. Our results show that it is feasible to build a relatively simple global scale groundwater model using existing information, and estimate water table depths within acceptable accuracy in many parts of the world.

  9. How have Global Health Initiatives impacted on health equity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanefeld, Johanna

    2008-01-01

    This review examines the impact of Global Health Initiatives (GHIs) on health equity, focusing on low- and middle-income countries. It is a summary of a literature review commissioned by the WHO Commission on the Social Determinants of Health. GHIs have emerged during the past decade as a mechanism in development assistance for health. The review focuses on three GHIs, the US President's Emergency Plan For AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), the World Bank's Multi-country AIDS Programme (MAP) and the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, TB and Malaria. All three have leveraged significant amounts of funding for their focal diseases - together these three GHIs provide an estimated two-thirds of external resources going to HIV/AIDS. This paper examines their impact on gender equity. An analysis of these Initiatives finds that they have a significant impact on health equity, including gender equity, through their processes of programme formulation and implementation, and through the activities they fund and implement, including through their impact on health systems and human resources. However, GHIs have so far paid insufficient attention to health inequities. While increasingly acknowledging equity, including gender equity, as a concern, Initiatives have so far failed to adequately translate this into programmes that address drivers of health inequity, including gender inequities. The review highlights the comparative advantage of individual GHIs, which point to an increased need for, and continued difficulties in, harmonisation of activities at country level. On the basis of this comparative analysis, key recommendations are made. They include a call for equity-sensitive targets, the collection of gender-disaggregated data, the use of policy-making processes for empowerment, programmes that explicitly address causes of health inequity and impact assessments of interventions' effect on social inequities.

  10. On coupling global biome models with climate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Claussen, M.

    1994-01-01

    The BIOME model of Prentice et al. (1992), which predicts global vegetation patterns in equilibrium with climate, is coupled with the ECHAM climate model of the Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg. It is found that incorporation of the BIOME model into ECHAM, regardless at which frequency, does not enhance the simulated climate variability, expressed in terms of differences between global vegetation patterns. Strongest changes are seen only between the initial biome distribution and the biome distribution computed after the first simulation period, provided that the climate-biome model is started from a biome distribution that resembles the present-day distribution. After the first simulation period, there is no significant shrinking, expanding, or shifting of biomes. Likewise, no trend is seen in global averages of land-surface parameters and climate variables. (orig.)

  11. The global coherence initiative: creating a coherent planetary standing wave.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCraty, Rollin; Deyhle, Annette; Childre, Doc

    2012-03-01

    The much anticipated year of 2012 is now here. Amidst the predictions and cosmic alignments that many are aware of, one thing is for sure: it will be an interesting and exciting year as the speed of change continues to increase, bringing both chaos and great opportunity. One benchmark of these times is a shift in many people from a paradigm of competition to one of greater cooperation. All across the planet, increasing numbers of people are practicing heart-based living, and more groups are forming activities that support positive change and creative solutions for manifesting a better world. The Global Coherence Initiative (GCI) is a science-based, co-creative project to unite people in heart-focused care and intention. GCI is working in concert with other initiatives to realize the increased power of collective intention and consciousness. The convergence of several independent lines of evidence provides strong support for the existence of a global information field that connects all living systems and consciousness. Every cell in our bodies is bathed in an external and internal environment of fluctuating invisible magnetic forces that can affect virtually every cell and circuit in biological systems. Therefore, it should not be surprising that numerous physiological rhythms in humans and global collective behaviors are not only synchronized with solar and geomagnetic activity, but disruptions in these fields can create adverse effects on human health and behavior. The most likely mechanism for explaining how solar and geomagnetic influences affect human health and behavior are a coupling between the human nervous system and resonating geomagnetic frequencies, called Schumann resonances, which occur in the earth-ionosphere resonant cavity and Alfvén waves. It is well established that these resonant frequencies directly overlap with those of the human brain and cardiovascular system. If all living systems are indeed interconnected and communicate with each other

  12. Global teaching and training initiatives for emerging cohort studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica K. Paulus

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available A striking disparity exists across the globe, with essentially no large-scale longitudinal studies ongoing in regions that will be significantly affected by the oncoming non-communicable disease epidemic. The successful implementation of cohort studies in most low-resource research environments presents unique challenges that may be aided by coordinated training programs. Leaders of emerging cohort studies attending the First World Cohort Integration Workshop were surveyed about training priorities, unmet needs and potential cross-cohort solutions to these barriers through an electronic pre-workshop questionnaire and focus groups. Cohort studies representing India, Mexico, Nigeria, South Africa, Sweden, Tanzania and Uganda described similar training needs, including on-the-job training, data analysis software instruction, and database and bio-bank management. A lack of funding and protected time for training activities were commonly identified constraints. Proposed solutions include a collaborative cross-cohort teaching platform with web-based content and interactive teaching methods for a range of research personnel. An international network for research mentorship and idea exchange, and modifying the graduate thesis structure were also identified as key initiatives. Cross-cohort integrated educational initiatives will efficiently meet shared needs, catalyze the development of emerging cohorts, speed closure of the global disparity in cohort research, and may fortify scientific capacity development in low-resource settings.

  13. Initial Assessment of Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKague, D. S.; Ruf, C. S.

    2017-12-01

    The NASA Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYNSS) mission provides high temporal resolution observations of cyclones from a constellation of eight low-Earth orbiting satellites. Using the relatively new technique of Global Navigation Satellite System reflectometry (GNSS-R), all-weather observations are possible, penetrating even deep convection within hurricane eye walls. The compact nature of the GNSS-R receivers permits the use of small satellites, which in turn enables the launch of a constellation of satellites from a single launch vehicle. Launched in December of 2016, the eight CYGNSS satellites provide 25 km resolution observations of mean square slope (surface roughness) and surface winds with a 2.8 hour median revisit time from 38 S to 38 N degrees latitude. In addition to the calibration and validation of CYGNSS sea state observations, the CYGNSS science team is assessing the ability of the mission to provide estimates of cyclone size, intensity, and integrated kinetic energy. With its all-weather ability and high temporal resolution, the CYGNSS mission will add significantly to our ability to monitor cyclone genesis and intensification and will significantly reduce uncertainties in our ability to estimate cyclone intensity, a key variable in predicting its destructive potential. Members of the CYGNSS Science Team are also assessing the assimilation of CYGNSS data into hurricane forecast models to determine the impact of the data on forecast skill, using the data to study extra-tropical cyclones, and looking at connections between tropical cyclones and global scale weather, including the global hydrologic cycle. This presentation will focus on the assessment of early on-orbit observations of cyclones with respect to these various applications.

  14. Initial spread of "1"3"7Cs from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant over the Japan continental shelf. A study using a high-resolution, global-coastal nested ocean model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lai, Z.; Chen, C.; Lin, H.; Shanghai Ocean Univ.; Beardsley, R.; Ji, R.; Shanghai Ocean Univ.; Sasaki, J.; Lin, J.

    2013-01-01

    The 11 March 2011 tsunami triggered by the M9 and M7.9 earthquakes off the Tohoku coast destroyed facilities at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP) leading to a significant long-term flow of the radionuclide "1"3"7Cs into coastal waters. A high-resolution, global-coastal nested ocean model was first constructed to simulate the 11 March tsunami and coastal inundation. Based on the model's success in reproducing the observed tsunami and coastal inundation, model experiments were then conducted with differing grid resolution to assess the initial spread of "1"3"7Cs over the eastern shelf of Japan. The "1"3"7Cs was tracked as a conservative tracer (without radioactive decay) in the three-dimensional model flow field over the period of 26 March-31 August 2011. The results clearly show that for the same "1"3"7Cs discharge, the model-predicted spreading of "1"3"7Cs was sensitive not only to model resolution but also the FNPP seawall structure. A coarse-resolution (∝2 km) model simulation led to an overestimation of lateral diffusion and thus faster dispersion of "1"3"7Cs from the coast to the deep ocean, while advective processes played a more significant role when the model resolution at and around the FNPP was refined to ∝5 m. By resolving the pathways from the leaking source to the southern and northern discharge canals, the high-resolution model better predicted the "1"3"7Cs spreading in the inner shelf where in situ measurements were made at 30 km off the coast. The overestimation of "1"3"7Cs concentration near the coast is thought to be due to the omission of sedimentation and biogeochemical processes as well as uncertainties in the amount of "1"3"7Cs leaking from the source in the model. As a result, a biogeochemical module should be included in the model for more realistic simulations of the fate and spreading of "1"3"7Cs in the ocean.

  15. Initial spread of {sup 137}Cs from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant over the Japan continental shelf. A study using a high-resolution, global-coastal nested ocean model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lai, Z. [Sun Yat-Sen Univ., Guangzhou (China). School of Marine Sciences; Univ. of Massachusetts-Dartmouth, New Bedford, MA (United States). School for Marine Science and Technology; Key Laboratory of Marine Resources and Coastal Engineering in Guangdong Province, Guangzhou (China); Chen, C.; Lin, H. [Univ. of Massachusetts-Dartmouth, New Bedford, MA (United States). School for Marine Science and Technology; Shanghai Ocean Univ. (China). International Center for Marine Studies; Beardsley, R. [Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA (United States). Dept. of Physical Oceanography; Ji, R. [Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA (United States). Dept. of Biology; Shanghai Ocean Univ. (China). International Center for Marine Studies; Sasaki, J. [The Univ. of Tokyo, Kashiwa (Japan). Dept. of Socio-Cultural Environmental Studies; Lin, J. [Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA (United States). Dept. of Geology and Geophysics

    2013-07-01

    The 11 March 2011 tsunami triggered by the M9 and M7.9 earthquakes off the Tohoku coast destroyed facilities at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP) leading to a significant long-term flow of the radionuclide {sup 137}Cs into coastal waters. A high-resolution, global-coastal nested ocean model was first constructed to simulate the 11 March tsunami and coastal inundation. Based on the model's success in reproducing the observed tsunami and coastal inundation, model experiments were then conducted with differing grid resolution to assess the initial spread of {sup 137}Cs over the eastern shelf of Japan. The {sup 137}Cs was tracked as a conservative tracer (without radioactive decay) in the three-dimensional model flow field over the period of 26 March-31 August 2011. The results clearly show that for the same {sup 137}Cs discharge, the model-predicted spreading of {sup 137}Cs was sensitive not only to model resolution but also the FNPP seawall structure. A coarse-resolution (∝2 km) model simulation led to an overestimation of lateral diffusion and thus faster dispersion of {sup 137}Cs from the coast to the deep ocean, while advective processes played a more significant role when the model resolution at and around the FNPP was refined to ∝5 m. By resolving the pathways from the leaking source to the southern and northern discharge canals, the high-resolution model better predicted the {sup 137}Cs spreading in the inner shelf where in situ measurements were made at 30 km off the coast. The overestimation of {sup 137}Cs concentration near the coast is thought to be due to the omission of sedimentation and biogeochemical processes as well as uncertainties in the amount of {sup 137}Cs leaking from the source in the model. As a result, a biogeochemical module should be included in the model for more realistic simulations of the fate and spreading of {sup 137}Cs in the ocean.

  16. Global Health Innovation Technology Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kimberly Harding

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Chronic technology and business process disparities between High Income, Low Middle Income and Low Income (HIC, LMIC, LIC research collaborators directly prevent the growth of sustainable Global Health innova‐ tion for infectious and rare diseases. There is a need for an Open Source-Open Science Architecture Framework to bridge this divide. We are proposing such a framework for consideration by the Global Health community, by utiliz‐ ing a hybrid approach of integrating agnostic Open Source technology and healthcare interoperability standards and Total Quality Management principles. We will validate this architecture framework through our programme called Project Orchid. Project Orchid is a conceptual Clinical Intelligence Exchange and Virtual Innovation platform utilizing this approach to support clinical innovation efforts for multi-national collaboration that can be locally sustainable for LIC and LMIC research cohorts. The goal is to enable LIC and LMIC research organizations to acceler‐ ate their clinical trial process maturity in the field of drug discovery, population health innovation initiatives and public domain knowledge networks. When sponsored, this concept will be tested by 12 confirmed clinical research and public health organizations in six countries. The potential impact of this platform is reduced drug discovery and public health innovation lag time and improved clinical trial interventions, due to reliable clinical intelligence and bio-surveillance across all phases of the clinical innovation process.

  17. Takaful Models and Global Practices

    OpenAIRE

    Akhter, Waheed

    2010-01-01

    There is a global interest in Islamic finance in general and Takāful in particular. The main feature that differentiates Takāful services from conventional ones is Sharī‟ah compliance nature of these services. Investors are taking keen interest in this potential market as Muslims constitute about one fourth of the world population (Muslim population, 2006). To streamline operations of a Takāful company, management and Sharī‟ah experts have developed different operational models for Takāful bu...

  18. JOICFP included in GII mission to Ghana. Global Issues Initiative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1996-03-01

    Among countries in West Africa, Ghana is the main focus of the Global Issues Initiative (GII) on Population and AIDS and one of twelve priority countries selected for official development assistance (ODA) under the program. A ten-member project formulation mission sent to Ghana by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) of Japan was in the country during January 10-18. This mission was the first of its kind to be sent to Africa. It was led by the director of the Third Project Formulation Study Division, Project Formulation Study Department, Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), and included representatives of MOFA, JICA, and the Ministry of Health and Welfare, and an observer from UNAIDS. The mission's chief objective was to explore possibilities for Japanese cooperation in the areas of population, child health, and HIV/AIDS in line with the Mid-Term Health Strategy (MTHS) formulated in 1995 by the government of Ghana. The mission also explored the possibility of collaboration with major donors, international organizations, international agencies, and NGOs. The mission met with representatives of NGOs from population, women, AIDS, and health-related areas on January 13, who were then briefed upon Japan's Grant Assistance for Grassroots Project for local NGOs. Views were exchanged upon NGO activities.

  19. Environmental surveillance for polioviruses in the Global Polio Eradication Initiative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asghar, Humayun; Diop, Ousmane M; Weldegebriel, Goitom; Malik, Farzana; Shetty, Sushmitha; El Bassioni, Laila; Akande, Adefunke O; Al Maamoun, Eman; Zaidi, Sohail; Adeniji, Adekunle J; Burns, Cara C; Deshpande, Jagadish; Oberste, M Steve; Lowther, Sara A

    2014-11-01

    This article summarizes the status of environmental surveillance (ES) used by the Global Polio Eradication Initiative, provides the rationale for ES, gives examples of ES methods and findings, and summarizes how these data are used to achieve poliovirus eradication. ES complements clinical acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) surveillance for possible polio cases. ES detects poliovirus circulation in environmental sewage and is used to monitor transmission in communities. If detected, the genetic sequences of polioviruses isolated from ES are compared with those of isolates from clinical cases to evaluate the relationships among viruses. To evaluate poliovirus transmission, ES programs must be developed in a manner that is sensitive, with sufficiently frequent sampling, appropriate isolation methods, and specifically targeted sampling sites in locations at highest risk for poliovirus transmission. After poliovirus ceased to be detected in human cases, ES documented the absence of endemic WPV transmission and detected imported WPV. ES provides valuable information, particularly in high-density populations where AFP surveillance is of poor quality, persistent virus circulation is suspected, or frequent virus reintroduction is perceived. Given the benefits of ES, GPEI plans to continue and expand ES as part of its strategic plan and as a supplement to AFP surveillance. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America 2014. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

  20. Global process industry initiatives to reduce major accident hazards

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pitblado, Robin [DNV Energy Houston, TX (United States). SHE Risk Management; Pontes, Jose [DNV Energy Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Americas Region; Oliveira, Luiz [DNV Energy Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    Since 2000, disasters at Texas City, Toulouse, Antwerp, Buncefield, P-36 and several near total loss events offshore in Norway have highlighted that major accident process safety is still a serious issue. Hopes that Process Safety Management or Safety Case regulations would solve these issues have not proven true. The Baker Panel recommended to BP several actions mainly around leadership, incentives, metrics, safety culture and more effective implementation of PSM systems. In Europe, an approach built around mechanical integrity and safety barriers, especially relating to technical safety systems, is being widely adopted. DNV has carried out a global survey of process industry initiatives, by interview and by literature review, for both upstream and downstream activities, to identify what the industry itself is planning to implement to enhance process safety in the next 5 - 10 years. This shows that an approach combining Baker Panel and EU barrier approaches and some nuclear industry real-time risk management approaches might be the best means to achieve a factor of 3-4 improvement in process safety. (author)

  1. Towards a global initiative for fibrosis treatment (GIFT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Molina-Molina

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF is a progressive lung disease characterised by increased scarring of lung tissue. Despite the recent introduction of novel drugs that slow disease progression, IPF remains a deadly disease, and the benefits of these new drugs differ markedly between patients. Human diseases arise due to alterations in an almost limitless network of interconnected genes, proteins, metabolites, cells and tissues, in direct relationship with a continuously changing macro- or microenvironment. Systems biology is a novel research strategy that seeks to understand the structure and behaviour of the so-called “emergent properties” of complex systems, such as those involved in disease pathogenesis, which are most often overlooked when just one element of disease pathogenesis is observed in isolation. This article summarises the debate that took place during a European Respiratory Society research seminar in Barcelona, Spain on December 15–16, 2016, which focused on how systems biology could generate new data by integrating the different IPF pathogenic levels of complexity. The main conclusion of the seminar was to create a global initiative to improve IPF outcomes by integrating cutting-edge international research that leverages systems biology to develop a precision medicine approach to tackle this devastating disease.

  2. Global health initiative investments and health systems strengthening: a content analysis of global fund investments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, Ashley E; Wyss, Kaspar; Shakarishvili, George; Atun, Rifat; de Savigny, Don

    2013-07-26

    Millions of dollars are invested annually under the umbrella of national health systems strengthening. Global health initiatives provide funding for low- and middle-income countries through disease-oriented programmes while maintaining that the interventions simultaneously strengthen systems. However, it is as yet unclear which, and to what extent, system-level interventions are being funded by these initiatives, nor is it clear how much funding they allocate to disease-specific activities - through conventional 'vertical-programming' approach. Such funding can be channelled to one or more of the health system building blocks while targeting disease(s) or explicitly to system-wide activities. We operationalized the World Health Organization health system framework of the six building blocks to conduct a detailed assessment of Global Fund health system investments. Our application of this framework framework provides a comprehensive quantification of system-level interventions. We applied this systematically to a random subset of 52 of the 139 grants funded in Round 8 of the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (totalling approximately US$1 billion). According to the analysis, 37% (US$ 362 million) of the Global Fund Round 8 funding was allocated to health systems strengthening. Of that, 38% (US$ 139 million) was for generic system-level interventions, rather than disease-specific system support. Around 82% of health systems strengthening funding (US$ 296 million) was allocated to service delivery, human resources, and medicines & technology, and within each of these to two to three interventions. Governance, financing, and information building blocks received relatively low funding. This study shows that a substantial portion of Global Fund's Round 8 funds was devoted to health systems strengthening. Dramatic skewing among the health system building blocks suggests opportunities for more balanced investments with regard to governance, financing, and

  3. Modeling of global biomass policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gielen, Dolf; Fujino, Junichi; Hashimoto, Seiji; Moriguchi, Yuichi

    2003-01-01

    This paper discusses the BEAP model and its use for the analysis of biomass policies for CO 2 emission reduction. The model considers competing land use, trade and leakage effects, and competing emission reduction strategies. Two policy scenarios are presented. In case of a 2040 time horizon the results suggest that a combination of afforestation and limited use of biomass for energy and materials constitutes the most attractive set of strategies. In case of a 'continued Kyoto' scenario including afforestation permit trade, the results suggest 5.1 Gt emission reduction based on land use change in 2020, two thirds of the total emission reduction by then. In case of global emission reduction, land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) accounts for one quarter of the emission reduction. However these results depend on the modeling time horizon. In case of a broader time horizon, maximized biomass production is more attractive than LULUCF. This result can be interpreted as a warning against a market based trading scheme for LULUCF credits. The model results suggest that the bioenergy market is dominated by transportation fuels and heating, and to a lesser extent feedstocks. Bioelectricity does not gain a significant market share in case competing CO 2 -free electricity options such as CO 2 capture and sequestration and nuclear are considered. To some extent trade in agricultural food products such as beef and cereals will be affected by CO 2 policies

  4. Modeling of global biomass policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gielen, D.; Fujino, Junichi; Hashimoto, Seiji; Moriguchi, Yuichi

    2003-01-01

    This paper discusses the BEAP model and its use for the analysis of biomass policies for CO 2 emission reduction. The model considers competing land use, trade and leakage effects, and competing emission reduction strategies. Two policy scenarios are presented. In case of a 2040 time horizon the results suggest that a combination of afforestation and limited use of biomass for energy and materials constitutes the most attractive set of strategies. In case of a 'continued Kyoto' scenario including afforestation permit trade, the results suggest 5.1 Gt emission reduction based on land use change in 2020, two thirds of the total emission reduction by then. In case of global emission reduction, land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) accounts for one quarter of the emission reduction. However these results depend on the modeling time horizon. In case of a broader time horizon, maximized biomass production is more attractive than LULUCF. This result can be interpreted as a warning against a market based trading scheme for LULUCF credits. The model results suggest that the bioenergy market is dominated by transportation fuels and heating, and to a lesser extent feedstocks. Bioelectricity does not gain a significant market share in case competing CO 2 -free electricity options such as CO 2 capture and sequestration and nuclear are considered. To some extent trade in agricultural food products such as beef and cereals will be affected by CO 2 policies. (Author)

  5. The Global Interaction Research Initiative at the IT University of Copenhagen, Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bardram, Jakob Eyvind; Bjørn, Pernille; Glenstrup, Arne John

    2011-01-01

    This showcase paper describes the Global Interaction Research Initiative – GIRI – recently inaugurated at the IT University of Copenhagen. It presents the motivation for this initiative, namely that the use of information technology is the core enabling factor for global collaboration and business...... initiative, and we invite other researchers to join....

  6. How to re-establish Openness as default? Towards a global joint initiative

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stracke, Christian M.

    2017-01-01

    Stracke, C. M. (2016, 14 April). How to re-establish Openness as default? Towards a global joint initiative. Results from the Action Lab at the Open Education Global Conference 2016, Krakow, Poland. More about the Action Lab:

  7. Global health initiatives in Africa - governance, priorities, harmonisation and alignment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mwisongo, Aziza; Nabyonga-Orem, Juliet

    2016-07-18

    The advent of global health initiatives (GHIs) has changed the landscape and architecture of health financing in low and middle income countries, particularly in Africa. Over the last decade, the African Region has realised improvements in health outcomes as a result of interventions implemented by both governments and development partners. However, alignment and harmonisation of partnerships and GHIs are still difficult in the African countries with inadequate capacity for their effective coordination. Both published and grey literature was reviewed to understand the governance, priorities, harmonisation and alignment of GHIs in the African Region; to synthesise the knowledge and highlight the persistent challenges; and to identify gaps for future research. GHI governance structures are often separate from those of the countries in which they operate. Their divergent funding channels and modalities may have contributed to the failure of governments to track their resources. There is also evidence that basically, earmarking and donor conditions drive funding allocations regardless of countries' priorities. Although studies cite the lack of harmonisation of GHI priorities with national strategies, evidence shows improvements in that area over time. GHIs have used several strategies and mechanisms to involve the private sector. These have widened the pool of health service policy-makers and providers to include groups such as civil society organisations (CSOs), with both positive and negative implications. GHI strategies such as co-financing by countries as a condition for support have been positive in achieving sustainability of interventions. GHI approaches have not changed substantially over the years but there has been evolution in terms of donor funding and conditions. GHIs still largely operate in a vertical manner, bypassing country systems; they compete for the limited human resources; they influence country policies; and they are not always harmonised with

  8. Information data systems for a global change technology initiative architecture trade study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Nicholas D.

    1991-01-01

    The Global Change Technology Initiative (GCTI) was established to develop technology which will enable use of satellite systems of Earth observations on a global scale, enable use of the observations to predictively model Earth's changes, and provide scientists, government, business, and industry with quick access to the resulting information. At LaRC, a GCTI Architecture Trade Study was undertaken to develop and evaluate the architectural implications to meet the requirements of the global change studies and the eventual implementation of a global change system. The output of the trade study are recommended technologies for the GCTI. That portion of the study concerned with the information data system is documented. The information data system for an earth global change modeling system can be very extensive and beyond affordability in terms of today's costs. Therefore, an incremental approach to gaining a system is most likely. An options approach to levels of capability versus needed technologies was developed. The primary drivers of the requirements for the information data system evaluation were the needed science products, the science measurements, the spacecraft orbits, the instruments configurations, and the spacecraft configurations and their attendant architectures. The science products requirements were not studied here; however, some consideration of the product needs were included in the evaluation results. The information data system technology items were identified from the viewpoint of the desirable overall information system characteristics.

  9. The IGAC activity for the development of global emissions inventories: Description and initial results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benkovitz, C.M.; Graedel, T.E.

    1992-02-01

    Modeling assessments of the atmospheric chemistry, air quality and climatic conditions of the past, present and future require as input inventories of emissions of the appropriate chemical species constructed on appropriate spatial and temporal scales. The task of the Global Emissions Inventories Activity (GEIA) of the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry Project (IGAC) is the production of global inventories suitable for a range of research applications. Current GEIA programs are generally based on addressing emissions by species; these include CO 2 , NH 3 /N 2 O, SO 2 /NO x , CFC, volatile organic compounds and radioisotopes. In addition a separate program to inventory emissions from biomass burning is also being structured, plus an additional program to address data management issues for all the developing inventories. Program priorities are based on current knowledge and tasks needed to produce the desired inventories. This paper will discuss the different types of global inventories to be developed by the GEIA programs, their key characteristics, and areas to be addressed in the compilation of such inventories. Results of the first GEIA task, a survey of existing inventories and auxiliary data, will be presented. The survey included status assessments for the available inventory information for nineteen different atmospheric species or groups of species on global and regional scales and over time. Of this entire body of information, the only inventory regarded as satisfactory was that for the global emissions of CFCs. An implication of the results of these assessments is that properly gridded emissions inventories are badly needed to support atmospheric modeling calculations on a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Initial studies in the development of global inventories of sulfur dioxide, currently the most advanced GEIA program, will be presented and discussed

  10. Global Geoscience Initiatives From Windows to the Universe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, R. M.; Johnson, R.; Gardiner, L.; Lagrave, M.; Genyuk, J.; Bergman, J.; Foster, S. Q.

    2006-12-01

    The Windows to the Universe (www.windows.ucar.edu) Earth and space science educational program and web site has an extensive international presence. The web site reaches a vast user audience, having served more than 124 million page views across approximately 14 million user sessions in the past year. About 44% of these user sessions originated from domains outside of the United States. The site, which contains roughly 7,000 pages originally offered in English, is being translated into Spanish. This effort, begun in 2003, is now approximately 80% complete. Availability in a second major language has dramatically increased use of the site both in the U.S.A. and abroad; about 29% (4.1 million) of the annual user sessions visit Spanish-language portions of the site. In September 2005 we began distributing a monthly electronic newsletter for teachers that highlights features on the web site as well as other geoscience programs and events of relevance to educators. We currently have more than 4,400 subscribers, 33.6% of whom are outside of the United States. We are actively seeking news and information about other programs of relevance to this audience to distribute via our newsletter. We have also begun to solicit information (tips, anecdotes, lesson plans, etc.) from geoscience teachers around the world to share via this newsletter. Finally, Windows to the Universe participated in the Education and Outreach efforts of the MILAGRO scientific field campaign in Mexico in March of 2006. MILAGRO was a collaborative, multi-agency, international campaign to conduct a coordinated study of the extent and effects of pollutants emitted by a "mega-city" (in this case Mexico City) in order to understand the impacts of vast urban environments on global climate modeling. We enlisted several scientists involved with MILAGRO to write "Postcards from the Field" about their ongoing research during the project; these electronic "postcards" were distributed, in English and Spanish, via

  11. New initiative to further global sustainable development goals in ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2016-03-17

    Mar 17, 2016 ... Representatives from some 60 think tanks met in November 2015 in Geneva to discuss how to further global objectives in health. ... Read the first submission, Accelerating achievement of the sustainable development goals, co-authored by the Graduate Institute, IDRC, the Harvard School of Public Health, ...

  12. Global initiative for meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus pneumonia (GLIMP)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aliberti, Stefano; Reyes, Luis F; Faverio, Paola

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Antibiotic resistance is a major global health problem and pathogens such as meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) have become of particular concern in the management of lower respiratory tract infections. However, few data are available on the worldwide prevalence and ris...

  13. On global and regional spectral evaluation of global geopotential models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ustun, A; Abbak, R A

    2010-01-01

    Spectral evaluation of global geopotential models (GGMs) is necessary to recognize the behaviour of gravity signal and its error recorded in spherical harmonic coefficients and associated standard deviations. Results put forward in this wise explain the whole contribution of gravity data in different kinds that represent various sections of the gravity spectrum. This method is more informative than accuracy assessment methods, which use external data such as GPS-levelling. Comparative spectral evaluation for more than one model can be performed both in global and local sense using many spectral tools. The number of GGMs has grown with the increasing number of data collected by the dedicated satellite gravity missions, CHAMP, GRACE and GOCE. This fact makes it necessary to measure the differences between models and to monitor the improvements in the gravity field recovery. In this paper, some of the satellite-only and combined models are examined in different scales, globally and regionally, in order to observe the advances in the modelling of GGMs and their strengths at various expansion degrees for geodetic and geophysical applications. The validation of the published errors of model coefficients is a part of this evaluation. All spectral tools explicitly reveal the superiority of the GRACE-based models when compared against the models that comprise the conventional satellite tracking data. The disagreement between models is large in local/regional areas if data sets are different, as seen from the example of the Turkish territory

  14. Language teachers and teaching global perspectives, local initiatives

    CERN Document Server

    Ben Said, Selim

    2013-01-01

    This volume gathers contributions from a range of global experts in teacher education to address the topic of language teacher education. It shows how teacher education involves the agency of teachers, which forms part of their identity, and which they take on when integrating into the teaching community of practice. In addition, the volume explores the teachers' situated practice--the dynamic negotiation of classroom situations, socialization into the professional teaching culture, and "on the ground experimentation" with pedagogical skills/techniques.

  15. Public policy and risk financing strategies for global catastrophe risk management - the role of global risk initiatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    McSharry, Patrick; Mitchell, Andrew; Anderson, Rebecca

    2010-05-01

    Decision-makers in both public and private organisations depend on accurate data and scientific understanding to adequately address climate change and the impact of extreme events. The financial impacts of catastrophes on populations and infrastructure can be offset through effective risk transfer mechanisms, structured to reflect the specific perils and levels of exposure to be covered. Optimal strategies depend on the likely socio-econonomic impact, the institutional framework, the overall objectives of the covers placed and the level of both the frequency and severity of loss potential expected. The diversity of approaches across different countries has been documented by the Spanish "Consorcio de Compensación de Seguros". We discuss why international public/private partnerships are necessary for addressing the risk of natural catastrophes. International initiatives such as the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) and the World Forum of Catastrophe Programmes (WFCP) can provide effective guidelines for constructing natural catastrophe schemes. The World Bank has been instrumental in the creation of many of the existing schemes such as the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool, the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility and the Mongolian Index-Based Livestock Insurance Program. We review existing schemes and report on best practice in relation to providing protection against natural catastrophe perils. The suitability of catastrophe modelling approaches to support schemes across the world are discussed and we identify opportunities to improve risk assessment for such schemes through transparent frameworks for quantifying, pricing, sharing and financing catastrophe risk on a local and global basis.

  16. Usefulness and limitations of global flood risk models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Philip; Jongman, Brenden; Salamon, Peter; Simpson, Alanna; Bates, Paul; De Groeve, Tom; Muis, Sanne; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; Rudari, Roberto; Mark, Trigg; Winsemius, Hessel

    2016-04-01

    Global flood risk models are now a reality. Initially, their development was driven by a demand from users for first-order global assessments to identify risk hotspots. Relentless upward trends in flood damage over the last decade have enhanced interest in such assessments. The adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage Associated with Climate Change Impacts have made these efforts even more essential. As a result, global flood risk models are being used more and more in practice, by an increasingly large number of practitioners and decision-makers. However, they clearly have their limits compared to local models. To address these issues, a team of scientists and practitioners recently came together at the Global Flood Partnership meeting to critically assess the question 'What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?'. The results of this dialogue (Ward et al., 2013) will be presented, opening a discussion on similar broader initiatives at the science-policy interface in other natural hazards. In this contribution, examples are provided of successful applications of global flood risk models in practice (for example together with the World Bank, Red Cross, and UNISDR), and limitations and gaps between user 'wish-lists' and model capabilities are discussed. Finally, a research agenda is presented for addressing these limitations and reducing the gaps. Ward et al., 2015. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2742

  17. Spherical Process Models for Global Spatial Statistics

    KAUST Repository

    Jeong, Jaehong; Jun, Mikyoung; Genton, Marc G.

    2017-01-01

    Statistical models used in geophysical, environmental, and climate science applications must reflect the curvature of the spatial domain in global data. Over the past few decades, statisticians have developed covariance models that capture

  18. One watt initiative: A global effort to reduce leaking electricity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meier, Alan K.; LeBot, Benoit

    1999-01-01

    Many domestic appliances and commercial equipment consume some electric power when they are switched off or not performing their primary purpose. The typical loss per appliance is low (from 1 to 25 W) but, when multiplied by the billions of appliances in houses and in commercial buildings, standby losses represent a significant fraction of total electricity use. Several initiatives to reduce standby losses have appeared in different parts of the world. One proposal, the 1-watt plan, seeks to harmonize these initiatives by establishing a single target for all appliances. This paper explains the background to the 1-watt plan, identifies some unresolved aspects, and gives some estimates of energy savings

  19. Use of wind data in global modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pailleux, J.

    1985-01-01

    The European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is producing operational global analyses every 6 hours and operational global forecasts every day from the 12Z analysis. How the wind data are used in the ECMWF golbal analysis is described. For each current wind observing system, its ability to provide initial conditions for the forecast model is discussed as well as its weaknesses. An assessment of the impact of each individual system on the quality of the analysis and the forecast is given each time it is possible. Sometimes the deficiencies which are pointed out are related not only to the observing system itself but also to the optimum interpolation (OI) analysis scheme; then some improvements are generally possible through ad hoc modifications of the analysis scheme and especially tunings of the structure functions. Examples are given. The future observing network over the North Atlantic is examined. Several countries, coordinated by WMO, are working to set up an 'Operational WWW System Evaluation' (OWSE), in order to evaluate the operational aspects of the deployment of new systems (ASDAR, ASAP). Most of the new systems are expected to be deployed before January 1987, and in order to make the best use of the available resources during the deployment phase, some network studies are carried out at the present time, by using simulated data for ASDAR and ASAP systems. They are summarized.

  20. Global model structures for ∗-modules

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Böhme, Benjamin

    2018-01-01

    We extend Schwede's work on the unstable global homotopy theory of orthogonal spaces and L-spaces to the category of ∗-modules (i.e., unstable S-modules). We prove a theorem which transports model structures and their properties from L-spaces to ∗-modules and show that the resulting global model...... structure for ∗-modules is monoidally Quillen equivalent to that of orthogonal spaces. As a consequence, there are induced Quillen equivalences between the associated model categories of monoids, which identify equivalent models for the global homotopy theory of A∞-spaces....

  1. Where theory and practice of global health intersect: the developmental history of a Canadian global health initiative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daibes, Ibrahim; Sridharan, Sanjeev

    2014-01-01

    This paper examines the scope of practice of global health, drawing on the practical experience of a global health initiative of the Government of Canada--the Teasdale-Corti Global Health Research Partnership Program. A number of challenges in the practical application of theoretical definitions and understandings of global health are addressed. These challenges are grouped under five areas that form essential characteristics of global health: equity and egalitarian North-South partnerships, interdisciplinary scope, focus on upstream determinants of health, global conceptualization, and global health as an area of both research and practice. Information in this paper is based on the results of an external evaluation of the program, which involved analysis of project proposals and technical reports, surveys with grantees and interviews with grantees and program designers, as well as case studies of three projects and a review of relevant literature. The philosophy and recent definitions of global health represent a significant and important departure from the international health paradigm. However, the practical applicability of this maturing area of research and practice still faces significant systemic and structural impediments that, if not acknowledged and addressed, will continue to undermine the development of global health as an effective means to addressing health inequities globally and to better understanding, and acting upon, upstream determinants of health toward health for all. While it strives to redress global inequities, global health continues to be a construct that is promoted, studied, and dictated mostly by Northern institutions and scholars. Until practical mechanisms are put in place for truly egalitarian partnerships between North and South for both the study and practice of global health, the emerging philosophy of global health cannot be effectively put into practice.

  2. Global Atmosphere Watch Workshop on Measurement-Model ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) Programme coordinates high-quality observations of atmospheric composition from global to local scales with the aim to drive high-quality and high-impact science while co-producing a new generation of products and services. In line with this vision, GAW’s Scientific Advisory Group for Total Atmospheric Deposition (SAG-TAD) has a mandate to produce global maps of wet, dry and total atmospheric deposition for important atmospheric chemicals to enable research into biogeochemical cycles and assessments of ecosystem and human health effects. The most suitable scientific approach for this activity is the emerging technique of measurement-model fusion for total atmospheric deposition. This technique requires global-scale measurements of atmospheric trace gases, particles, precipitation composition and precipitation depth, as well as predictions of the same from global/regional chemical transport models. The fusion of measurement and model results requires data assimilation and mapping techniques. The objective of the GAW Workshop on Measurement-Model Fusion for Global Total Atmospheric Deposition (MMF-GTAD), an initiative of the SAG-TAD, was to review the state-of-the-science and explore the feasibility and methodology of producing, on a routine retrospective basis, global maps of atmospheric gas and aerosol concentrations as well as wet, dry and total deposition via measurement-model

  3. Inclusion-initiated fracture model for ceramics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sung, J.; Nicholson, P.S.

    1990-01-01

    The fracture of ceramics initiating from a typical inclusion is analyzed. The inclusion is considered to have a thermal expansion coefficient and fracture toughness lower than those of the matrix and a Young's modulus higher than that of the matrix. Inclusion-initiated fracture is modeled for a spherical inclusion using a weight function method to compute the residual stress intensity factor for a part-through elliptical crack. The results are applied to an α-Al 2 O 3 inclusion embedded in a tetragonal ZrO 2 ceramic. The strength predictions agree well with experimental data

  4. The Global Context of Vaccine Refusal: Insights from a Systematic Comparative Ethnography of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Closser, Svea; Rosenthal, Anat; Maes, Kenneth; Justice, Judith; Cox, Kelly; Omidian, Patricia A; Mohammed, Ismaila Zango; Dukku, Aminu Mohammed; Koon, Adam D; Nyirazinyoye, Laetitia

    2016-09-01

    Many of medical anthropology's most pressing research questions require an understanding how infections, money, and ideas move around the globe. The Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) is a $9 billion project that has delivered 20 billion doses of oral polio vaccine in campaigns across the world. With its array of global activities, it cannot be comprehensively explored by the traditional anthropological method of research at one field site. This article describes an ethnographic study of the GPEI, a collaborative effort between researchers at eight sites in seven countries. We developed a methodology grounded in nuanced understandings of local context but structured to allow analysis of global trends. Here, we examine polio vaccine acceptance and refusal to understand how global phenomena-in this case, policy decisions by donors and global health organizations to support vaccination campaigns rather than building health systems-shape local behavior. © 2016 by the American Anthropological Association.

  5. HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM): Global

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Global HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) and U.S. Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) 3-day, daily forecast at approximately 9-km (1/12-degree)...

  6. ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V002

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) was developed jointly by the U.S. National...

  7. Final report to DOE [Global guardianship initiative in southern Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2000-07-01

    The objective of this project is to establish models for community renewable energy deployment as a strategy for protected area management and an alternative to grid extension in developing countries in Latin America and Asia. Working together with the Nature Conservancy, the Center for Resource Solutions chose Southern Mexico and its 10 protected areas to launch this program. DOE funds supported Phase One activities: establishment of an advisory committee and selection of six to ten communities for renewable energy plans.

  8. A Global Stock and Bond Model

    OpenAIRE

    Connor, Gregory

    1996-01-01

    Factor models are now widely used to support asset selection decisions. Global asset allocation, the allocation between stocks versus bonds and among nations, usually relies instead on correlation analysis of international equity and bond indexes. It would be preferable to have a single integrated framework for both asset selection and asset allocation. This framework would require a factor model applicable at an asset or country level, as well as at a global level,...

  9. View from Silicon Valley: Maximizing the Scientific Impact of Global Brain Initiatives through Entrepreneurship.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joshi, Pushkar S; Ghosh, Kunal K

    2016-11-02

    In this era of technology-driven global neuroscience initiatives, the role of the neurotechnology industry remains woefully ambiguous. Here, we explain why industry is essential to the success of these global initiatives, and how it can maximize the scientific impact of these efforts by (1) scaling and ultimately democratizing access to breakthrough neurotechnologies, and (2) commercializing technologies as part of integrated, end-to-end solutions that accelerate neuroscientific discovery. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. A global central banker competency model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David W. Brits

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Orientation: No comprehensive, integrated competency model exists for central bankers. Due to the importance of central banks in the context of the ongoing global financial crisis, it was deemed necessary to design and validate such a model. Research purpose: To craft and validate a comprehensive, integrated global central banker competency model (GCBCM and to assess whether central banks using the GCBCM for training have a higher global influence. Motivation for the study: Limited consensus exists globally about what constitutes a ‘competent’ central banker. A quantitatively validated GCBCM would make a significant contribution to enhancing central banker effectiveness, and also provide a solid foundation for effective people management. Research approach, design and method: A blended quantitative and qualitative research approach was taken. Two sets of hypotheses were tested regarding the relationships between the GCBCM and the training offered, using the model on the one hand, and a central bank’s global influence on the other. Main findings: The GCBCM was generally accepted across all participating central banks globally, although some differences were found between central banks with higher and lower global influence. The actual training offered by central banks in terms of the model, however, is generally limited to technical-functional skills. The GCBCM is therefore at present predominantly aspirational. Significant differences were found regarding the training offered. Practical/managerial implications: By adopting the GCBCM, central banks would be able to develop organisation-specific competency models in order to enhance their organisational capabilities and play their increasingly important global role more effectively. Contribution: A generic conceptual framework for the crafting of a competency model with evaluation criteria was developed. A GCBCM was quantitatively validated.

  11. Japan's English-Medium Instruction Initiatives and the Globalization of Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Heath; McKinley, Jim

    2018-01-01

    This article analyzes a recent initiative of Japan's Ministry of Education, which aims to internationalize higher education in Japan. The large-investment project "Top Global University Project" (TGUP) has emerged to create globally oriented universities, to increase the role of foreign languages in higher education, and to foster global…

  12. Alternative Food in the Global South: Reflections on a Direct Marketing Initiative in Kenya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freidberg, Susanne; Goldstein, Lissa

    2011-01-01

    Amidst booming scholarship on alternative food networks (AFNs) in the global North, research on AFN in the global South remains scarce. Partly this is because explicitly alternative initiatives are themselves scarce, except for those focused on export markets. Yet in countries such as Kenya, urban consumers and rural smallholders have good reason…

  13. Leveraging the Global Health Service Partnership Model for Workforce Development in Global Radiation Oncology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omoruyi Credit Irabor

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available A major contributor to the disparity in cancer outcome across the globe is the limited health care access in low- and middle-income countries that results from the shortfall in human resources for health (HRH, fomented by the limited training and leadership capacity of low-resource countries. In 2012, Seed Global Health teamed up with the Peace Corps to create the Global Health Service Partnership, an initiative that has introduced a novel model for tackling the HRH crises in developing regions of the world. The Global Health Service Partnership has made global health impacts in leveraging partnerships for HRH development, faculty activities and output, scholarship engagement, adding value to the learning environment, health workforce empowerment, and infrastructure development.

  14. The AGU Data Management Maturity Model Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bates, J. J.

    2015-12-01

    In September 2014, the AGU Board of Directors approved two initiatives to help the Earth and space sciences community address the growing challenges accompanying the increasing size and complexity of data. These initiatives are: 1) Data Science Credentialing: development of a continuing education and professional certification program to help scientists in their careers and to meet growing responsibilities and requirements around data science; and 2) Data Management Maturity (DMM) Model: development and implementation of a data management maturity model to assess process maturity against best practices, and to identify opportunities in organizational data management processes. Each of these has been organized within AGU as an Editorial Board and both Boards have held kick off meetings. The DMM model Editorial Board will recommend strategies for adapting and deploying a DMM model to the Earth and space sciences create guidance documents to assist in its implementation, and provide input on a pilot appraisal process. This presentation will provide an overview of progress to date in the DMM model Editorial Board and plans for work to be done over the upcoming year.

  15. The status and challenge of global fire modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hantson, Stijn; Arneth, Almut; Harrison, Sandy P.; Kelley, Douglas I.; Prentice, I. Colin; Rabin, Sam S.; Archibald, Sally; Mouillot, Florent; Arnold, Steve R.; Artaxo, Paulo; Bachelet, Dominique; Ciais, Philippe; Forrest, Matthew; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hickler, Thomas; Kaplan, Jed O.; Kloster, Silvia; Knorr, Wolfgang; Lasslop, Gitta; Li, Fang; Mangeon, Stephane; Melton, Joe R.; Meyn, Andrea; Sitch, Stephen; Spessa, Allan; van der Werf, Guido R.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Yue, Chao

    2016-06-01

    Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, using either well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. While a large variety of models exist today, it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central question underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), an international initiative to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we review how fires have been represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and give an overview of the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling. We indicate which challenges still remain in global fire modelling and stress the need for a comprehensive model evaluation and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.

  16. Modelling the initiation of basal sliding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mantelli, E.; Schoof, C.

    2017-12-01

    The initiation of basal sliding is a thermally-controlled process that affects ice speed, englacial heat transport, and melt water production at the bed, and ultimately influences the large-scale dynamics of ice sheets. From a modelling perspective, describing the onset of sliding in thin-film models suitable for ice sheet scale simulations is problematic. In particular, previous work concluded that, under shallow-ice mechanics, the scenario of a hard switch from frozen to molten bed leads to an infinite vertical velocity at the onset, and higher-order mechanical formulations are needed to describe sliding initiation. An alternative view considers the occurrence of subtemperate sliding, which allows for a smooth sliding velocity across the onset. However, the sliding velocity decreases rapidly as temperature drops below the melting point, thus raising the issue of whether a mechanical model that does not resolve the ice sheet thickness scale is ever appropriate to model the onset of sliding. In this study we first present a boundary layer model for the hard switch scenario. Our analysis, which considers a thermo-mechanically coupled Stokes flow near the onset, shows that the abrupt onset of sliding is never possible. In fact, the acceleration of ice flow deflects the flowlines towards the bed, which freezes again immediately downstream to the onset. This leads to the conclusion that the sliding velocity must change smoothly across the onset, thus the temperature dependence of sliding needs to be taken into account. In this context, we examine a limiting case of standard temperature-dependent sliding laws, where sliding onset takes the form of an extended transition region interposed between fully frozen and temperate bed. In the transition region basal temperature is at the melting point, and the sliding velocity varies smoothly as dictated by the energy budget of the bed. As the extent of this region is not small compared to the ice sheet length scale, we couple

  17. Global-warming forecasting models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moeller, K.P.

    1992-01-01

    In spite of an annual man-made quantity of about 20 billion tons, carbon dioxide has remained a trace gas in the atmosphere (350 ppm at present). The reliability of model calculations which forecast temperatures is dicussed in view of the world-wide increase in carbon dioxides. Computer simulations reveal a general, serious threat to the future of mankind. (DG) [de

  18. Global initiative of the special olympics movement for people with intellectual disabilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myśliwiec, Andrzej; Damentko, Mariusz

    2015-03-29

    The mission of the Special Olympics is to provide year-round sports training and competition in a variety (33) of Olympic-type sports for children and adults with intellectual disabilities, giving them continuing opportunities to develop physical fitness, demonstrate courage, experience joy, and participate in sharing of gifts and friendship with their families, other athletes, and their communities. The Special Olympics movement often goes beyond the sports competition formula. During the last few years, the movement has developed many new global initiatives, which expand its former sports activities. They include: Coaching excellence and the coaching modelPartnerships with international (regional) sports federationsSports Resources Teams (SRT)Extended quota for high level athletesAthletes Leadership Program (ALPS)Young Athletes ProgramYouth volunteer initiativesUnified Sports ProgramMotor Activity Training ProgramHealthy Athletes Program These initiatives fulfill and expand the existing program, which was launched in 1968 and is the largest sports organization for people with disabilities worldwide, with very important new social, marketing, and developmental aspects of life, going far beyond activities met in other sports organizations.

  19. Global Initiative of the Special Olympics Movement for People with Intellectual Disabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myśliwiec, Andrzej; Damentko, Mariusz

    2015-01-01

    The mission of the Special Olympics is to provide year-round sports training and competition in a variety (33) of Olympic-type sports for children and adults with intellectual disabilities, giving them continuing opportunities to develop physical fitness, demonstrate courage, experience joy, and participate in sharing of gifts and friendship with their families, other athletes, and their communities. The Special Olympics movement often goes beyond the sports competition formula. During the last few years, the movement has developed many new global initiatives, which expand its former sports activities. They include: Coaching excellence and the coaching modelPartnerships with international (regional) sports federationsSports Resources Teams (SRT)Extended quota for high level athletesAthletes Leadership Program (ALPS)Young Athletes ProgramYouth volunteer initiativesUnified Sports ProgramMotor Activity Training ProgramHealthy Athletes Program These initiatives fulfill and expand the existing program, which was launched in 1968 and is the largest sports organization for people with disabilities worldwide, with very important new social, marketing, and developmental aspects of life, going far beyond activities met in other sports organizations. PMID:25964828

  20. Qualitative models of global warming amplifiers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Milošević, U.; Bredeweg, B.; de Kleer, J.; Forbus, K.D.

    2010-01-01

    There is growing interest from ecological experts to create qualitative models of phenomena for which numerical information is sparse or missing. We present a number of successful models in the field of environmental science, namely, the domain of global warming. The motivation behind the effort is

  1. Technology Learning Ratios in Global Energy Models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varela, M.

    2001-01-01

    The process of introduction of a new technology supposes that while its production and utilisation increases, also its operation improves and its investment costs and production decreases. The accumulation of experience and learning of a new technology increase in parallel with the increase of its market share. This process is represented by the technological learning curves and the energy sector is not detached from this process of substitution of old technologies by new ones. The present paper carries out a brief revision of the main energy models that include the technology dynamics (learning). The energy scenarios, developed by global energy models, assume that the characteristics of the technologies are variables with time. But this trend is incorporated in a exogenous way in these energy models, that is to say, it is only a time function. This practice is applied to the cost indicators of the technology such as the specific investment costs or to the efficiency of the energy technologies. In the last years, the new concept of endogenous technological learning has been integrated within these global energy models. This paper examines the concept of technological learning in global energy models. It also analyses the technological dynamics of the energy system including the endogenous modelling of the process of technological progress. Finally, it makes a comparison of several of the most used global energy models (MARKAL, MESSAGE and ERIS) and, more concretely, about the use these models make of the concept of technological learning. (Author) 17 refs

  2. Corporate responsibility reporting according to Global Reporting Initiative: an international comparison

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ionela-Corina CHERSAN

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The Global Reporting Initiative (GRI is an organization that has managed to impose its reporting practices on corporate responsibility among large transnational companies. The model proposed by GRI is based on the supposed convergence between the economic, social and environmental dimensions of sustainable development. This convergence can be presumed at macroeconomic level, but at the level of enterprises, the three dimensions are often divergent. By analyzing the structure of reports included in the GRI database, our article aims to identify the factors that impact on company’s behavior in the corporate responsibility reporting process. In addition, our research invites to answer the following question: is it not possible that these reports attempt to exaggerate company environmental and social performance, rather than to cause a change in their conduct?

  3. European initiatives for modeling emissions from transport

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Joumard, Robert; Hickman, A. John; Samaras, Zissis

    1998-01-01

    In Europe there have been many cooperative studies into transport emission inventories since the late 80s. These cover the scope of CORINAIR program involving experts from seven European Community laboratories addressing only road transport emissions at national level. These also include the latest...... covered are the composition of the vehicle fleets, emission factors, driving statistics and the modeling approach. Many of the European initiatives aim also at promoting further cooperation between national laboratories and at defining future research needs. An assessment of these future needs...... is presented from a European point of view....

  4. New global ICT-based business models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    The New Global Business model (NEWGIBM) book describes the background, theory references, case studies, results and learning imparted by the NEWGIBM project, which is supported by ICT, to a research group during the period from 2005-2011. The book is a result of the efforts and the collaborative ...... The NEWGIBM Cases Show? The Strategy Concept in Light of the Increased Importance of Innovative Business Models Successful Implementation of Global BM Innovation Globalisation Of ICT Based Business Models: Today And In 2020......The New Global Business model (NEWGIBM) book describes the background, theory references, case studies, results and learning imparted by the NEWGIBM project, which is supported by ICT, to a research group during the period from 2005-2011. The book is a result of the efforts and the collaborative....... The NEWGIBM book serves as a part of the final evaluation and documentation of the NEWGIBM project and is supported by results from the following projects: M-commerce, Global Innovation, Global Ebusiness & M-commerce, The Blue Ocean project, International Center for Innovation and Women in Business, NEFFICS...

  5. A high resolution global scale groundwater model

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Graaf, Inge; Sutanudjaja, Edwin; van Beek, Rens; Bierkens, Marc

    2014-05-01

    As the world's largest accessible source of freshwater, groundwater plays a vital role in satisfying the basic needs of human society. It serves as a primary source of drinking water and supplies water for agricultural and industrial activities. During times of drought, groundwater storage provides a large natural buffer against water shortage and sustains flows to rivers and wetlands, supporting ecosystem habitats and biodiversity. Yet, the current generation of global scale hydrological models (GHMs) do not include a groundwater flow component, although it is a crucial part of the hydrological cycle. Thus, a realistic physical representation of the groundwater system that allows for the simulation of groundwater head dynamics and lateral flows is essential for GHMs that increasingly run at finer resolution. In this study we present a global groundwater model with a resolution of 5 arc-minutes (approximately 10 km at the equator) using MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh, 1988). With this global groundwater model we eventually intend to simulate the changes in the groundwater system over time that result from variations in recharge and abstraction. Aquifer schematization and properties of this groundwater model were developed from available global lithological maps and datasets (Dürr et al., 2005; Gleeson et al., 2010; Hartmann and Moosdorf, 2013), combined with our estimate of aquifer thickness for sedimentary basins. We forced the groundwater model with the output from the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB (van Beek et al., 2011), specifically the net groundwater recharge and average surface water levels derived from routed channel discharge. For the parameterization, we relied entirely on available global datasets and did not calibrate the model so that it can equally be expanded to data poor environments. Based on our sensitivity analysis, in which we run the model with various hydrogeological parameter settings, we observed that most variance in groundwater

  6. Modeling Global Biogenic Emission of Isoprene: Exploration of Model Drivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, Susan E.; Potter, Christopher S.; Coughlan, Joseph C.; Klooster, Steven A.; Lerdau, Manuel T.; Chatfield, Robert B.; Peterson, David L. (Technical Monitor)

    1996-01-01

    Vegetation provides the major source of isoprene emission to the atmosphere. We present a modeling approach to estimate global biogenic isoprene emission. The isoprene flux model is linked to a process-based computer simulation model of biogenic trace-gas fluxes that operates on scales that link regional and global data sets and ecosystem nutrient transformations Isoprene emission estimates are determined from estimates of ecosystem specific biomass, emission factors, and algorithms based on light and temperature. Our approach differs from an existing modeling framework by including the process-based global model for terrestrial ecosystem production, satellite derived ecosystem classification, and isoprene emission measurements from a tropical deciduous forest. We explore the sensitivity of model estimates to input parameters. The resulting emission products from the global 1 degree x 1 degree coverage provided by the satellite datasets and the process model allow flux estimations across large spatial scales and enable direct linkage to atmospheric models of trace-gas transport and transformation.

  7. Global alignment, coordination and collaboration in perinatal research: the Global Obstetrics Network (GONet) Initiative

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mol, Ben Willem; Ruifrok, Anneloes Elisabeth

    2013-01-01

    Large clinical studies provide information and insight that are used to develop clinical guidelines. In view of the large sample sizes needed, many researchers have initiated multicenter studies. In some situations, the activities of these groups have led to networks, through which multiple trials

  8. Generation of political priority for global health initiatives: a framework and case study of maternal mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiffman, Jeremy; Smith, Stephanie

    2007-10-13

    Why do some global health initiatives receive priority from international and national political leaders whereas others receive little attention? To analyse this question we propose a framework consisting of four categories: the strength of the actors involved in the initiative, the power of the ideas they use to portray the issue, the nature of the political contexts in which they operate, and characteristics of the issue itself. We apply this framework to the case of a global initiative to reduce maternal mortality, which was launched in 1987. We undertook archival research and interviewed people connected with the initiative, using a process-tracing method that is commonly employed in qualitative research. We report that despite two decades of effort the initiative remains in an early phase of development, hampered by difficulties in all these categories. However, the initiative's 20th year, 2007, presents opportunities to build political momentum. To generate political priority, advocates will need to address several challenges, including the creation of effective institutions to guide the initiative and the development of a public positioning of the issue to convince political leaders to act. We use the framework and case study to suggest areas for future research on the determinants of political priority for global health initiatives, which is a subject that has attracted much speculation but little scholarship.

  9. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models; Third year report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R. [Applied Research Corp., College Station, TX (United States)

    1994-05-01

    This report was prepared by the Applied Research Corporation (ARC), College Station, Texas, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate studies task. The task supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and is part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work is under the overall direction of the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), US Department of Energy Headquarters, Washington, DC. The scope of the report is to present the results of the third year`s work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain several studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals.

  10. Assessment of Global Cloud Datasets from Satellites: Project and Database Initiated by the GEWEX Radiation Panel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stubenrauch, C. J.; Rossow, W. B.; Kinne, S.; Ackerman, S.; Cesana, G.; Chepfer, H.; Getzewich, B.; Di Girolamo, L.; Guignard, A.; Heidinger, A.; hide

    2012-01-01

    Clouds cover about 70% of the Earth's surface and play a dominant role in the energy and water cycle of our planet. Only satellite observations provide a continuous survey of the state of the atmosphere over the whole globe and across the wide range of spatial and temporal scales that comprise weather and climate variability. Satellite cloud data records now exceed more than 25 years in length. However, climatologies compiled from different satellite datasets can exhibit systematic biases. Questions therefore arise as to the accuracy and limitations of the various sensors. The Global Energy and Water cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Cloud Assessment, initiated in 2005 by the GEWEX Radiation Panel, provided the first coordinated intercomparison of publically available, standard global cloud products (gridded, monthly statistics) retrieved from measurements of multi-spectral imagers (some with multiangle view and polarization capabilities), IR sounders and lidar. Cloud properties under study include cloud amount, cloud height (in terms of pressure, temperature or altitude), cloud radiative properties (optical depth or emissivity), cloud thermodynamic phase and bulk microphysical properties (effective particle size and water path). Differences in average cloud properties, especially in the amount of high-level clouds, are mostly explained by the inherent instrument measurement capability for detecting and/or identifying optically thin cirrus, especially when overlying low-level clouds. The study of long-term variations with these datasets requires consideration of many factors. A monthly, gridded database, in common format, facilitates further assessments, climate studies and the evaluation of climate models.

  11. Retrieving global aerosol sources from satellites using inverse modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Dubovik

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Understanding aerosol effects on global climate requires knowing the global distribution of tropospheric aerosols. By accounting for aerosol sources, transports, and removal processes, chemical transport models simulate the global aerosol distribution using archived meteorological fields. We develop an algorithm for retrieving global aerosol sources from satellite observations of aerosol distribution by inverting the GOCART aerosol transport model.

    The inversion is based on a generalized, multi-term least-squares-type fitting, allowing flexible selection and refinement of a priori algorithm constraints. For example, limitations can be placed on retrieved quantity partial derivatives, to constrain global aerosol emission space and time variability in the results. Similarities and differences between commonly used inverse modeling and remote sensing techniques are analyzed. To retain the high space and time resolution of long-period, global observational records, the algorithm is expressed using adjoint operators.

    Successful global aerosol emission retrievals at 2°×2.5 resolution were obtained by inverting GOCART aerosol transport model output, assuming constant emissions over the diurnal cycle, and neglecting aerosol compositional differences. In addition, fine and coarse mode aerosol emission sources were inverted separately from MODIS fine and coarse mode aerosol optical thickness data, respectively. These assumptions are justified, based on observational coverage and accuracy limitations, producing valuable aerosol source locations and emission strengths. From two weeks of daily MODIS observations during August 2000, the global placement of fine mode aerosol sources agreed with available independent knowledge, even though the inverse method did not use any a priori information about aerosol sources, and was initialized with a "zero aerosol emission" assumption. Retrieving coarse mode aerosol emissions was less successful

  12. Exploring the Case for a Global Alliance for Medical Diagnostics Initiative

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melissa L. Mugambi

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, the private and public sectors have increased investments in medical diagnostics for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs. Despite these investments, numerous barriers prevent the adoption of existing diagnostics and discourage the development and introduction of new diagnostics in LMICs. In the late 1990s, the global vaccine community had similar challenges, as vaccine coverage rates stagnated and the introduction of new vaccines was viewed as a distraction to delivering existing vaccines. To address these challenges, the international community came together and formed the Global Alliance for Vaccines Initiative (GAVI. Sixteen years after the formation of GAVI, we see evidence of a healthier global vaccine landscape. We discuss how GAVI’s four guiding principles (product, health systems strengthening, financing and market shaping might apply to the advancement of medical diagnostics in LMICs. We present arguments for the international community and existing organizations to establish a Global Alliance for Medical Diagnostics Initiative (GAMDI.

  13. Assessment of global cloud datasets from satellites: Project and database initiated by the GEWEX radiation panel

    OpenAIRE

    Stubenrauch , C.J.; Rossow , W.B.; Kinne , S.; Ackerman , S.; Cesana , G.; Chepfer , H.; Di Girolamo , L.; Getzewich , B.; Guignard , A.; Heidinger , A.; Maddux , B.C.; Menzel , W.P.; Minnis , P.; Pearl , C.; Platnick , S.

    2013-01-01

    International audience; The Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Radiation Panel initiated the GEWEX Cloud Assessment in 2005 to compare available, global, long-term cloud data products with the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP). The GEWEX Cloud Assessment database included cloud properties retrieved from different satellite sensor measurements, taken at various local times and over various time periods. The relevant passive satellite sensors measured radia...

  14. Global thermal models of the lithosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cammarano, F.; Guerri, M.

    2017-12-01

    Unraveling the thermal structure of the outermost shell of our planet is key for understanding its evolution. We obtain temperatures from interpretation of global shear-velocity (VS) models. Long-wavelength thermal structure is well determined by seismic models and only slightly affected by compositional effects and uncertainties in mineral-physics properties. Absolute temperatures and gradients with depth, however, are not well constrained. Adding constraints from petrology, heat-flow observations and thermal evolution of oceanic lithosphere help to better estimate absolute temperatures in the top part of the lithosphere. We produce global thermal models of the lithosphere at different spatial resolution, up to spherical-harmonics degree 24, and provide estimated standard deviations. We provide purely seismic thermal (TS) model and hybrid models where temperatures are corrected with steady-state conductive geotherms on continents and cooling model temperatures on oceanic regions. All relevant physical properties, with the exception of thermal conductivity, are based on a self-consistent thermodynamical modelling approach. Our global thermal models also include density and compressional-wave velocities (VP) as obtained either assuming no lateral variations in composition or a simple reference 3-D compositional structure, which takes into account a chemically depleted continental lithosphere. We found that seismically-derived temperatures in continental lithosphere fit well, overall, with continental geotherms, but a large variation in radiogenic heat is required to reconcile them with heat flow (long wavelength) observations. Oceanic shallow lithosphere below mid-oceanic ridges and young oceans is colder than expected, confirming the possible presence of a dehydration boundary around 80 km depth already suggested in previous studies. The global thermal models should serve as the basis to move at a smaller spatial scale, where additional thermo-chemical variations

  15. The global initiative against the nuclear terrorism; La iniciativa global contra el terrorismo nuclear

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lossada Torres-Quevedo, A.

    2008-07-01

    The magnitude of the terrorist attacks of September 11 and subsequent attacks in Madrid, London, Bali and Iraq have been cause for condemnation and have forced the international community to make a concerted effort to prevent this kind of attack. Moreover, the risk that Al Qaeda could get hold of weapons of mass destruction has led to the inclusion of non-proliferation as a key element of the strategies to combat terrorism and to the launch of several initiative to prevent the possibility of these types of weapons or their precursors from falling into the hands of terrorist groups and to adequately manage the consequences. (Author)

  16. Safeguards First Principle Initiative (SFPI) Cost Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Price, Mary Alice

    2010-01-01

    The Nevada Test Site (NTS) began operating Material Control and Accountability (MC and A) under the Safeguards First Principle Initiative (SFPI), a risk-based and cost-effective program, in December 2006. The NTS SFPI Comprehensive Assessment of Safeguards Systems (COMPASS) Model is made up of specific elements (MC and A plan, graded safeguards, accounting systems, measurements, containment, surveillance, physical inventories, shipper/receiver differences, assessments/performance tests) and various sub-elements, which are each assigned effectiveness and contribution factors that when weighted and rated reflect the health of the MC and A program. The MC and A Cost Model, using an Excel workbook, calculates budget and/or actual costs using these same elements/sub-elements resulting in total costs and effectiveness costs per element/sub-element. These calculations allow management to identify how costs are distributed for each element/sub-element. The Cost Model, as part of the SFPI program review process, enables management to determine if spending is appropriate for each element/sub-element.

  17. Spherical Process Models for Global Spatial Statistics

    KAUST Repository

    Jeong, Jaehong

    2017-11-28

    Statistical models used in geophysical, environmental, and climate science applications must reflect the curvature of the spatial domain in global data. Over the past few decades, statisticians have developed covariance models that capture the spatial and temporal behavior of these global data sets. Though the geodesic distance is the most natural metric for measuring distance on the surface of a sphere, mathematical limitations have compelled statisticians to use the chordal distance to compute the covariance matrix in many applications instead, which may cause physically unrealistic distortions. Therefore, covariance functions directly defined on a sphere using the geodesic distance are needed. We discuss the issues that arise when dealing with spherical data sets on a global scale and provide references to recent literature. We review the current approaches to building process models on spheres, including the differential operator, the stochastic partial differential equation, the kernel convolution, and the deformation approaches. We illustrate realizations obtained from Gaussian processes with different covariance structures and the use of isotropic and nonstationary covariance models through deformations and geographical indicators for global surface temperature data. To assess the suitability of each method, we compare their log-likelihood values and prediction scores, and we end with a discussion of related research problems.

  18. On coupling global biome models with climate models

    OpenAIRE

    Claussen, M.

    1994-01-01

    The BIOME model of Prentice et al. (1992; J. Biogeogr. 19: 117-134), which predicts global vegetation patterns in equilibrium with climate, was coupled with the ECHAM climate model of the Max-Planck-Institut fiir Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany. It was found that incorporation of the BIOME model into ECHAM, regardless at which frequency, does not enhance the simulated climate variability, expressed in terms of differences between global vegetation patterns. Strongest changes are seen only betw...

  19. COLUMBUS. A global gas market model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hecking, Harald; Panke, Timo

    2012-03-15

    A model of the global gas market is presented which in its basic version optimises the future development of production, transport and storage capacities as well as the actual gas flows around the world assuming perfect competition. Besides the transport of natural gas via pipelines also the global market for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is modelled using a hub-and-spoke approach. While in the basic version of the model an inelastic demand and a piecewise-linear supply function are used, both can be changed easily, e.g. to a Golombek style production function or a constant elasticity of substitution (CES) demand function. Due to the usage of mixed complementary programming (MCP) the model additionally allows for the simulation of strategic behaviour of different players in the gas market, e.g. the gas producers.

  20. The Global Polio Eradication Initiative: Progress, Lessons Learned, And Polio Legacy Transition Planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cochi, Stephen L; Hegg, Lea; Kaur, Anjali; Pandak, Carol; Jafari, Hamid

    2016-02-01

    The world is closer than ever to achieving global polio eradication, with record-low polio cases in 2015 and the impending prospect of a polio-free Africa. Tens of millions of volunteers, social mobilizers, and health workers have participated in the Global Polio Eradication Initiative. The program contributes to efforts to deliver other health benefits, including health systems strengthening. As the initiative nears completion after more than twenty-five years, it becomes critical to document and transition the knowledge, lessons learned, assets, and infrastructure accumulated by the initiative to address other health goals and priorities. The primary goals of this process, known as polio legacy transition planning, are both to protect a polio-free world and to ensure that investments in polio eradication will contribute to other health goals after polio is completely eradicated. The initiative is engaged in an extensive transition process of consultations and planning at the global, regional, and country levels. A successful completion of this process will result in a well-planned and -managed conclusion of the initiative that will secure the global public good gained by ending one of the world's most devastating diseases and ensure that these investments provide public health benefits for years to come. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

  1. GLOMO - Global Mobility Model: Beschreibung und Ergebnisse

    OpenAIRE

    Kühn, André; Novinsky, Patrick; Schade, Wolfgang

    2014-01-01

    The development of both, emerging markets as well as the already establish markets (USA, Japan, Europe), is highly relevant for future success of the export-oriented German automotive industry. This paper describes the so called Global Mobility Model (GLOMO) based on the system dynamics approach, which simulates the future development of car sales by segment and drive technology. The modularized model contains population, income and GDP development in order to describe the framework in the mo...

  2. Validation of A Global Hydrological Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doell, P.; Lehner, B.; Kaspar, F.; Vassolo, S.

    Freshwater availability has been recognized as a global issue, and its consistent quan- tification not only in individual river basins but also at the global scale is required to support the sustainable use of water. The Global Hydrology Model WGHM, which is a submodel of the global water use and availability model WaterGAP 2, computes sur- face runoff, groundwater recharge and river discharge at a spatial resolution of 0.5. WGHM is based on the best global data sets currently available, including a newly developed drainage direction map and a data set of wetlands, lakes and reservoirs. It calculates both natural and actual discharge by simulating the reduction of river discharge by human water consumption (as computed by the water use submodel of WaterGAP 2). WGHM is calibrated against observed discharge at 724 gauging sta- tions (representing about 50% of the global land area) by adjusting a parameter of the soil water balance. It not only computes the long-term average water resources but also water availability indicators that take into account the interannual and seasonal variability of runoff and discharge. The reliability of the model results is assessed by comparing observed and simulated discharges at the calibration stations and at se- lected other stations. We conclude that reliable results can be obtained for basins of more than 20,000 km2. In particular, the 90% reliable monthly discharge is simu- lated well. However, there is the tendency that semi-arid and arid basins are modeled less satisfactorily than humid ones, which is partially due to neglecting river channel losses and evaporation of runoff from small ephemeral ponds in the model. Also, the hydrology of highly developed basins with large artificial storages, basin transfers and irrigation schemes cannot be simulated well. The seasonality of discharge in snow- dominated basins is overestimated by WGHM, and if the snow-dominated basin is uncalibrated, discharge is likely to be underestimated

  3. A model for global cycling of tritium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Killough, G.G.; Kocher, D.C.

    1988-01-01

    Dynamic compartment models are widely used to describe global cycling of radionuclides for purposes of dose estimation. In this paper the authors present a new global tritium model that reproduces environmental time-series data on concentrations in precipitation, ocean surface waters, and surface fresh waters in the northern hemisphere, concentrations of atmospheric tritium in the southern hemisphere, and the latitude dependence of tritium in both hemispheres. Names TRICYCLE (for TRItium CYCLE) the model is based on the global hydrologic cycle and includes hemispheric stratospheric compartments, disaggregation of the troposphere and ocean surface waters into eight latitude zones, consideration of the different concentrations of atmospheric tritium over land and over the ocean, and a diffusive model for transport in the ocean. TRICYCLE reproduces the environmental data if it is assumed that about 50% of the tritium from atmospheric weapons testing was injected directly into the northern stratosphere as HTO. The model's latitudinal disaggregation permits taking into account the distribution of population. For a uniformly distributed release of HTO into the worldwide troposphere, TRICYCLE predicts a collective dose commitment to the world population that exceeds the NCRP model's corresponding prediction by a factor of three

  4. A model for global cycling of tritium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Killough, G.G.; Kocher, D.C.

    1988-01-01

    Dynamic compartment models are widely used to describe global cycling of radionuclides for purposes of dose estimation. In this paper, we present a new global tritium model that reproduces environmental time-series data on concentrations in precipitation, ocean surface waters, and surface fresh waters in the northern hemisphere, concentrations of atmospheric tritium in the soutehrn hemisphere, and the latitude dependence of tritium in both hemispheres. Named TRICYCLE for Tritium CYCLE, the model is based on the global hydrologic cycle and includes hemisphereic stratospheric compartments, disaggregation of the troposphere and ocean surface waters into eight latitudezones, consideration of the different concentrations of atmospheric tritium over land and over the ocean, and a diffusive model for transport in the ocean. TRICYCLE reproduces the environmental data if we assume that about 50% of the tritium from atmospheric weapons testing was injected directly into the northern stratosphere as HTO. The models latitudinal disaggregation permits taking into account the distribution of population. For a unfiormaly distributed release of HTO into the worldwide troposphere, TRICYCLE predicts a collective dose commitment to the world population that exceeds the corresponding prediction by the NCRP model by about a factor of 3. 11 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab

  5. Global nuclear material flow/control model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dreicer, J.S.; Rutherford, D.S.; Fasel, P.K.; Riese, J.M.

    1997-01-01

    This is the final report of a two-year, Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The nuclear danger can be reduced by a system for global management, protection, control, and accounting as part of an international regime for nuclear materials. The development of an international fissile material management and control regime requires conceptual research supported by an analytical and modeling tool which treats the nuclear fuel cycle as a complete system. The prototype model developed visually represents the fundamental data, information, and capabilities related to the nuclear fuel cycle in a framework supportive of national or an international perspective. This includes an assessment of the global distribution of military and civilian fissile material inventories, a representation of the proliferation pertinent physical processes, facility specific geographic identification, and the capability to estimate resource requirements for the management and control of nuclear material. The model establishes the foundation for evaluating the global production, disposition, and safeguards and security requirements for fissile nuclear material and supports the development of other pertinent algorithmic capabilities necessary to undertake further global nuclear material related studies

  6. Global Optimization Ensemble Model for Classification Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anwar, Hina; Qamar, Usman; Muzaffar Qureshi, Abdul Wahab

    2014-01-01

    Supervised learning is the process of data mining for deducing rules from training datasets. A broad array of supervised learning algorithms exists, every one of them with its own advantages and drawbacks. There are some basic issues that affect the accuracy of classifier while solving a supervised learning problem, like bias-variance tradeoff, dimensionality of input space, and noise in the input data space. All these problems affect the accuracy of classifier and are the reason that there is no global optimal method for classification. There is not any generalized improvement method that can increase the accuracy of any classifier while addressing all the problems stated above. This paper proposes a global optimization ensemble model for classification methods (GMC) that can improve the overall accuracy for supervised learning problems. The experimental results on various public datasets showed that the proposed model improved the accuracy of the classification models from 1% to 30% depending upon the algorithm complexity. PMID:24883382

  7. Global Optimization Ensemble Model for Classification Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hina Anwar

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Supervised learning is the process of data mining for deducing rules from training datasets. A broad array of supervised learning algorithms exists, every one of them with its own advantages and drawbacks. There are some basic issues that affect the accuracy of classifier while solving a supervised learning problem, like bias-variance tradeoff, dimensionality of input space, and noise in the input data space. All these problems affect the accuracy of classifier and are the reason that there is no global optimal method for classification. There is not any generalized improvement method that can increase the accuracy of any classifier while addressing all the problems stated above. This paper proposes a global optimization ensemble model for classification methods (GMC that can improve the overall accuracy for supervised learning problems. The experimental results on various public datasets showed that the proposed model improved the accuracy of the classification models from 1% to 30% depending upon the algorithm complexity.

  8. Global Analysis, Interpretation and Modelling: An Earth Systems Modelling Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Berrien, III; Sahagian, Dork

    1997-01-01

    The Goal of the GAIM is: To advance the study of the coupled dynamics of the Earth system using as tools both data and models; to develop a strategy for the rapid development, evaluation, and application of comprehensive prognostic models of the Global Biogeochemical Subsystem which could eventually be linked with models of the Physical-Climate Subsystem; to propose, promote, and facilitate experiments with existing models or by linking subcomponent models, especially those associated with IGBP Core Projects and with WCRP efforts. Such experiments would be focused upon resolving interface issues and questions associated with developing an understanding of the prognostic behavior of key processes; to clarify key scientific issues facing the development of Global Biogeochemical Models and the coupling of these models to General Circulation Models; to assist the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) process by conducting timely studies that focus upon elucidating important unresolved scientific issues associated with the changing biogeochemical cycles of the planet and upon the role of the biosphere in the physical-climate subsystem, particularly its role in the global hydrological cycle; and to advise the SC-IGBP on progress in developing comprehensive Global Biogeochemical Models and to maintain scientific liaison with the WCRP Steering Group on Global Climate Modelling.

  9. Under the (legal) radar screen: global health initiatives and international human rights obligations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background Given that many low income countries are heavily reliant on external assistance to fund their health sectors the acceptance of obligations of international assistance and cooperation with regard to the right to health (global health obligations) is insufficiently understood and studied by international health and human rights scholars. Over the past decade Global Health Initiatives, like the Global Fund to fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (Global Fund) have adopted novel approaches to engaging with stakeholders in high and low income countries. This article explores how this experience impacted on acceptance of the international obligation to (help) fulfil the right to health beyond borders. Methods The authors conducted an extensive review of international human rights law literature, transnational legal process literature, global public health literature and grey literature pertaining to Global Health Initiatives. To complement this desk work and deepen their understanding of how and why different legal norms evolve the authors conducted 19 in-depth key informant interviews with actors engaged with three stakeholders; the European Union, the United States and Belgium. The authors then analysed the interviews through a transnational legal process lens. Results Through according value to the process of examining how and why different legal norms evolve transnational legal process offers us a tool for engaging with the dynamism of developments in global health suggesting that operationalising global health obligations could advance the right to health for all. Conclusions In many low-income countries the health sector is heavily dependent on external assistance to fulfil the right to health of people thus it is vital that policies and tools for delivering reliable, long-term assistance are developed so that the right to health for all becomes more than a dream. Our research suggests that the Global Fund experience offers lessons to build on. PMID

  10. Under the (legal radar screen: global health initiatives and international human rights obligations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hammonds Rachel

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Given that many low income countries are heavily reliant on external assistance to fund their health sectors the acceptance of obligations of international assistance and cooperation with regard to the right to health (global health obligations is insufficiently understood and studied by international health and human rights scholars. Over the past decade Global Health Initiatives, like the Global Fund to fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (Global Fund have adopted novel approaches to engaging with stakeholders in high and low income countries. This article explores how this experience impacted on acceptance of the international obligation to (help fulfil the right to health beyond borders. Methods The authors conducted an extensive review of international human rights law literature, transnational legal process literature, global public health literature and grey literature pertaining to Global Health Initiatives. To complement this desk work and deepen their understanding of how and why different legal norms evolve the authors conducted 19 in-depth key informant interviews with actors engaged with three stakeholders; the European Union, the United States and Belgium. The authors then analysed the interviews through a transnational legal process lens. Results Through according value to the process of examining how and why different legal norms evolve transnational legal process offers us a tool for engaging with the dynamism of developments in global health suggesting that operationalising global health obligations could advance the right to health for all. Conclusions In many low-income countries the health sector is heavily dependent on external assistance to fulfil the right to health of people thus it is vital that policies and tools for delivering reliable, long-term assistance are developed so that the right to health for all becomes more than a dream. Our research suggests that the Global Fund experience offers

  11. Under the (legal) radar screen: global health initiatives and international human rights obligations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammonds, Rachel; Ooms, Gorik; Vandenhole, Wouter

    2012-11-15

    Given that many low income countries are heavily reliant on external assistance to fund their health sectors the acceptance of obligations of international assistance and cooperation with regard to the right to health (global health obligations) is insufficiently understood and studied by international health and human rights scholars. Over the past decade Global Health Initiatives, like the Global Fund to fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (Global Fund) have adopted novel approaches to engaging with stakeholders in high and low income countries. This article explores how this experience impacted on acceptance of the international obligation to (help) fulfil the right to health beyond borders. The authors conducted an extensive review of international human rights law literature, transnational legal process literature, global public health literature and grey literature pertaining to Global Health Initiatives. To complement this desk work and deepen their understanding of how and why different legal norms evolve the authors conducted 19 in-depth key informant interviews with actors engaged with three stakeholders; the European Union, the United States and Belgium. The authors then analysed the interviews through a transnational legal process lens. Through according value to the process of examining how and why different legal norms evolve transnational legal process offers us a tool for engaging with the dynamism of developments in global health suggesting that operationalising global health obligations could advance the right to health for all. In many low-income countries the health sector is heavily dependent on external assistance to fulfil the right to health of people thus it is vital that policies and tools for delivering reliable, long-term assistance are developed so that the right to health for all becomes more than a dream. Our research suggests that the Global Fund experience offers lessons to build on.

  12. Northern Eurasia Future Initiative: Facing the Challenges of Global Change in the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groisman, Pavel; Gutman, Garik; Gulev, Sergey; Maksyutov, Shamil; Qi, Jiaguo

    2016-04-01

    During the past 12 years, the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI) - an interdisciplinary program of internationally-supported Earth systems and science research - has addressed large-scale and long-term manifestations of climate and environmental changes over Northern Eurasia and their impact on the Global Earth system. With more than 1500 peer-reviewed journal publications and 40 books to its credit, NEESPI's activities resulted in significant scientific outreach. This created a new research realm through self-organization of NEESPI scientists in a broad research network, accumulation of knowledge while developing new tools (observations, models, and collaborative networks) and producing new, exciting results that can be applied to directly support decision-making for societal needs. This realm was summed up at the Synthesis NEESPI Workshop in Prague, Czech Republic (April 9-12, 2015) where it was decided to shift gradually the foci of regional studies in Northern Eurasia towards applications with the following major Science Question: " What dynamic and interactive change(s) will affect societal well-being, activities, and health, and what might be the mitigation and adaptation strategies that could support sustainable development and decision-making activities in Northern Eurasia?". To answer this question requires a stronger socio-economic component in the ongoing and future regional studies focused on sustainable societal development under changing climatic and environmental conditions, especially, under conditions when societal decision-making impacts and feeds back on the environment. This made the NEESPI studies closer to the ICSU research initiative "Future Earth". Accordingly, the NEESPI Research Team decided to reorganize in the nearest future NEESPI into "Northern Eurasia Future Initiative" (NEFI) and began development of its Programmatic White Paper (in preparation at the time of this abstract submission). The NEFI research

  13. World Community: Middlesex CC Infuses Global Initiatives into Core Curriculum and beyond

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cowan, Carole A.

    2006-01-01

    Twenty years ago, Middlesex Community College (MCC) in Massachusetts decided to add a global focus to its programs. Since then, the college has garnered worldwide recognition for the range of international initiatives it has integrated into its curriculum across academic disciplines. Today, Middlesex offers unique opportunities for international…

  14. Los Alamos National Laboratory Training Capabilities (Possible Applications in the Global Initiatives for Proliferation Prevention Program)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martin, Olga [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2012-06-04

    The briefing provides an overview of the training capabilities at Los Alamos National Laboratory that can be applied to nonproliferation/responsible science education at nuclear institutes in the Former Soviet Union, as part of the programmatic effort under the Global Initiatives for Proliferation Prevention program (GIPP).

  15. Global modelling of Cryptosporidium in surface water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vermeulen, Lucie; Hofstra, Nynke

    2016-04-01

    Introduction Waterborne pathogens that cause diarrhoea, such as Cryptosporidium, pose a health risk all over the world. In many regions quantitative information on pathogens in surface water is unavailable. Our main objective is to model Cryptosporidium concentrations in surface waters worldwide. We present the GloWPa-Crypto model and use the model in a scenario analysis. A first exploration of global Cryptosporidium emissions to surface waters has been published by Hofstra et al. (2013). Further work has focused on modelling emissions of Cryptosporidium and Rotavirus to surface waters from human sources (Vermeulen et al 2015, Kiulia et al 2015). A global waterborne pathogen model can provide valuable insights by (1) providing quantitative information on pathogen levels in data-sparse regions, (2) identifying pathogen hotspots, (3) enabling future projections under global change scenarios and (4) supporting decision making. Material and Methods GloWPa-Crypto runs on a monthly time step and represents conditions for approximately the year 2010. The spatial resolution is a 0.5 x 0.5 degree latitude x longitude grid for the world. We use livestock maps (http://livestock.geo-wiki.org/) combined with literature estimates to calculate spatially explicit livestock Cryptosporidium emissions. For human Cryptosporidium emissions, we use UN population estimates, the WHO/UNICEF JMP sanitation country data and literature estimates of wastewater treatment. We combine our emissions model with a river routing model and data from the VIC hydrological model (http://vic.readthedocs.org/en/master/) to calculate concentrations in surface water. Cryptosporidium survival during transport depends on UV radiation and water temperature. We explore pathogen emissions and concentrations in 2050 with the new Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) 1 and 3. These scenarios describe plausible future trends in demographics, economic development and the degree of global integration. Results and

  16. Global energy modeling - A biophysical approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dale, Michael

    2010-09-15

    This paper contrasts the standard economic approach to energy modelling with energy models using a biophysical approach. Neither of these approaches includes changing energy-returns-on-investment (EROI) due to declining resource quality or the capital intensive nature of renewable energy sources. Both of these factors will become increasingly important in the future. An extension to the biophysical approach is outlined which encompasses a dynamic EROI function that explicitly incorporates technological learning. The model is used to explore several scenarios of long-term future energy supply especially concerning the global transition to renewable energy sources in the quest for a sustainable energy system.

  17. Ademe et Vous. International Newsletter No. 43, December 2017. A global initiative for efficient solutions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, Valerie; Seguin-Jacques, Catherine; Aulas, Camille

    2017-12-01

    Content: - Focus: A global initiative for efficient solutions. On 14 November, during COP23, ADEME officially joined the World Alliance for Efficient Solutions, an initiative launched by the Solar Impulse Foundation. - Expertise: Energy: an industrial sector in transition. At a time when reducing energy consumption and improving energy efficiency seem to be essential to the development of a sustainable and competitive industry, electrical load management has emerged as a promising solution. - Worldwide: Ivory Coast: promoting sustainable construction. From 18 to 20 September, ADEME took part in two events held in Abidjan dedicated to sustainable construction in the Ivory Coast, a subject in which the Agency had a long-standing experience to share at the heart of the Global Alliance for Building and Construction (Global ABC)

  18. Statistical models of global Langmuir mixing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Qing; Fox-Kemper, Baylor; Breivik, Øyvind; Webb, Adrean

    2017-05-01

    The effects of Langmuir mixing on the surface ocean mixing may be parameterized by applying an enhancement factor which depends on wave, wind, and ocean state to the turbulent velocity scale in the K-Profile Parameterization. Diagnosing the appropriate enhancement factor online in global climate simulations is readily achieved by coupling with a prognostic wave model, but with significant computational and code development expenses. In this paper, two alternatives that do not require a prognostic wave model, (i) a monthly mean enhancement factor climatology, and (ii) an approximation to the enhancement factor based on the empirical wave spectra, are explored and tested in a global climate model. Both appear to reproduce the Langmuir mixing effects as estimated using a prognostic wave model, with nearly identical and substantial improvements in the simulated mixed layer depth and intermediate water ventilation over control simulations, but significantly less computational cost. Simpler approaches, such as ignoring Langmuir mixing altogether or setting a globally constant Langmuir number, are found to be deficient. Thus, the consequences of Stokes depth and misaligned wind and waves are important.

  19. NAIRAS aircraft radiation model development, dose climatology, and initial validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mertens, Christopher J.; Meier, Matthias M.; Brown, Steven; Norman, Ryan B.; Xu, Xiaojing

    2013-10-01

    The Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) is a real-time, global, physics-based model used to assess radiation exposure to commercial aircrews and passengers. The model is a free-running physics-based model in the sense that there are no adjustment factors applied to nudge the model into agreement with measurements. The model predicts dosimetric quantities in the atmosphere from both galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar energetic particles, including the response of the geomagnetic field to interplanetary dynamical processes and its subsequent influence on atmospheric dose. The focus of this paper is on atmospheric GCR exposure during geomagnetically quiet conditions, with three main objectives. First, provide detailed descriptions of the NAIRAS GCR transport and dosimetry methodologies. Second, present a climatology of effective dose and ambient dose equivalent rates at typical commercial airline altitudes representative of solar cycle maximum and solar cycle minimum conditions and spanning the full range of geomagnetic cutoff rigidities. Third, conduct an initial validation of the NAIRAS model by comparing predictions of ambient dose equivalent rates with tabulated reference measurement data and recent aircraft radiation measurements taken in 2008 during the minimum between solar cycle 23 and solar cycle 24. By applying the criterion of the International Commission on Radiation Units and Measurements (ICRU) on acceptable levels of aircraft radiation dose uncertainty for ambient dose equivalent greater than or equal to an annual dose of 1 mSv, the NAIRAS model is within 25% of the measured data, which fall within the ICRU acceptable uncertainty limit of 30%. The NAIRAS model predictions of ambient dose equivalent rate are generally within 50% of the measured data for any single-point comparison. The largest differences occur at low latitudes and high cutoffs, where the radiation dose level is low. Nevertheless, analysis suggests

  20. Modeling of the Global Water Cycle - Analytical Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yongqiang Liu; Roni Avissar

    2005-01-01

    Both numerical and analytical models of coupled atmosphere and its underlying ground components (land, ocean, ice) are useful tools for modeling the global and regional water cycle. Unlike complex three-dimensional climate models, which need very large computing resources and involve a large number of complicated interactions often difficult to interpret, analytical...

  1. Global Environmental Change: An integrated modelling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Den Elzen, M.

    1993-01-01

    Two major global environmental problems are dealt with: climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion (and their mutual interactions), briefly surveyed in part 1. In Part 2 a brief description of the integrated modelling framework IMAGE 1.6 is given. Some specific parts of the model are described in more detail in other Chapters, e.g. the carbon cycle model, the atmospheric chemistry model, the halocarbon model, and the UV-B impact model. In Part 3 an uncertainty analysis of climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion is presented (Chapter 4). Chapter 5 briefly reviews the social and economic uncertainties implied by future greenhouse gas emissions. Chapters 6 and 7 describe a model and sensitivity analysis pertaining to the scientific uncertainties and/or lacunae in the sources and sinks of methane and carbon dioxide, and their biogeochemical feedback processes. Chapter 8 presents an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the carbon cycle model, the halocarbon model, and the IMAGE model 1.6 as a whole. Part 4 presents the risk assessment methodology as applied to the problems of climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion more specifically. In Chapter 10, this methodology is used as a means with which to asses current ozone policy and a wide range of halocarbon policies. Chapter 11 presents and evaluates the simulated globally-averaged temperature and sea level rise (indicators) for the IPCC-1990 and 1992 scenarios, concluding with a Low Risk scenario, which would meet the climate targets. Chapter 12 discusses the impact of sea level rise on the frequency of the Dutch coastal defence system (indicator) for the IPCC-1990 scenarios. Chapter 13 presents projections of mortality rates due to stratospheric ozone depletion based on model simulations employing the UV-B chain model for a number of halocarbon policies. Chapter 14 presents an approach for allocating future emissions of CO 2 among regions. (Abstract Truncated)

  2. Global Well-Posedness of the Boltzmann Equation with Large Amplitude Initial Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Renjun; Huang, Feimin; Wang, Yong; Yang, Tong

    2017-07-01

    The global well-posedness of the Boltzmann equation with initial data of large amplitude has remained a long-standing open problem. In this paper, by developing a new {L^∞_xL^1v\\cap L^∞_{x,v}} approach, we prove the global existence and uniqueness of mild solutions to the Boltzmann equation in the whole space or torus for a class of initial data with bounded velocity-weighted {L^∞} norm under some smallness condition on the {L^1_xL^∞_v} norm as well as defect mass, energy and entropy so that the initial data allow large amplitude oscillations. Both the hard and soft potentials with angular cut-off are considered, and the large time behavior of solutions in the {L^∞_{x,v}} norm with explicit rates of convergence are also studied.

  3. A physically based model of global freshwater surface temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Beek, Ludovicus P. H.; Eikelboom, Tessa; van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

    2012-09-01

    Temperature determines a range of physical properties of water and exerts a strong control on surface water biogeochemistry. Thus, in freshwater ecosystems the thermal regime directly affects the geographical distribution of aquatic species through their growth and metabolism and indirectly through their tolerance to parasites and diseases. Models used to predict surface water temperature range between physically based deterministic models and statistical approaches. Here we present the initial results of a physically based deterministic model of global freshwater surface temperature. The model adds a surface water energy balance to river discharge modeled by the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. In addition to advection of energy from direct precipitation, runoff, and lateral exchange along the drainage network, energy is exchanged between the water body and the atmosphere by shortwave and longwave radiation and sensible and latent heat fluxes. Also included are ice formation and its effect on heat storage and river hydraulics. We use the coupled surface water and energy balance model to simulate global freshwater surface temperature at daily time steps with a spatial resolution of 0.5° on a regular grid for the period 1976-2000. We opt to parameterize the model with globally available data and apply it without calibration in order to preserve its physical basis with the outlook of evaluating the effects of atmospheric warming on freshwater surface temperature. We validate our simulation results with daily temperature data from rivers and lakes (U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), limited to the USA) and compare mean monthly temperatures with those recorded in the Global Environment Monitoring System (GEMS) data set. Results show that the model is able to capture the mean monthly surface temperature for the majority of the GEMS stations, while the interannual variability as derived from the USGS and NOAA data was captured reasonably well. Results are poorest for

  4. Development of an Integrated Global Energy Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krakowski, R.A.

    1999-01-01

    The primary objective of this research was to develop a forefront analysis tool for application to enhance understanding of long-term, global, nuclear-energy and nuclear-material futures. To this end, an existing economics-energy-environmental (E 3 ) model was adopted, modified, and elaborated to examine this problem in a multi-regional (13), long-term (approximately2,100) context. The E 3 model so developed was applied to create a Los Alamos presence in this E 3 area through ''niche analyses'' that provide input to the formulation of policies dealing with and shaping of nuclear-energy and nuclear-materials futures. Results from analyses using the E 3 model have been presented at a variety of national and international conferences and workshops. Through use of the E 3 model Los Alamos was afforded the opportunity to participate in a multi-national E 3 study team that is examining a range of global, long-term nuclear issues under the auspices of the IAEA during the 1998-99 period . Finally, the E 3 model developed under this LDRD project is being used as an important component in more recent Nuclear Material Management Systems (NMMS) project

  5. Drought Persistence Errors in Global Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moon, H.; Gudmundsson, L.; Seneviratne, S. I.

    2018-04-01

    The persistence of drought events largely determines the severity of socioeconomic and ecological impacts, but the capability of current global climate models (GCMs) to simulate such events is subject to large uncertainties. In this study, the representation of drought persistence in GCMs is assessed by comparing state-of-the-art GCM model simulations to observation-based data sets. For doing so, we consider dry-to-dry transition probabilities at monthly and annual scales as estimates for drought persistence, where a dry status is defined as negative precipitation anomaly. Though there is a substantial spread in the drought persistence bias, most of the simulations show systematic underestimation of drought persistence at global scale. Subsequently, we analyzed to which degree (i) inaccurate observations, (ii) differences among models, (iii) internal climate variability, and (iv) uncertainty of the employed statistical methods contribute to the spread in drought persistence errors using an analysis of variance approach. The results show that at monthly scale, model uncertainty and observational uncertainty dominate, while the contribution from internal variability is small in most cases. At annual scale, the spread of the drought persistence error is dominated by the statistical estimation error of drought persistence, indicating that the partitioning of the error is impaired by the limited number of considered time steps. These findings reveal systematic errors in the representation of drought persistence in current GCMs and suggest directions for further model improvement.

  6. Initial conditions and ENSO prediction using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larow, T. E.; Krishnamurti, T. N.

    1998-01-01

    A coupled ocean-atmosphere initialization scheme using Newtonian relaxation has been developed for the Florida State University coupled ocean-atmosphere global general circulation model. The initialization scheme is used to initialize the coupled model for seasonal forecasting the boreal summers of 1987 and 1988. The atmosphere model is a modified version of the Florida State University global spectral model, resolution T-42. The ocean general circulation model consists of a slightly modified version of the Hamburg's climate group model described in Latif (1987) and Latif et al. (1993). The coupling is synchronous with information exchanged every two model hours. Using ECMWF atmospheric daily analysis and observed monthly mean SSTs, two, 1-year, time-dependent, Newtonian relaxation were performed using the coupled model prior to conducting the seasonal forecasts. The coupled initializations were conducted from 1 June 1986 to 1 June 1987 and from 1 June 1987 to 1 June 1988. Newtonian relaxation was applied to the prognostic atmospheric vorticity, divergence, temperature and dew point depression equations. In the ocean model the relaxation was applied to the surface temperature. Two, 10-member ensemble integrations were conducted to examine the impact of the coupled initialization on the seasonal forecasts. The initial conditions used for the ensembles are the ocean's final state after the initialization and the atmospheric initial conditions are ECMWF analysis. Examination of the SST root mean square error and anomaly correlations between observed and forecasted SSTs in the Niño-3 and Niño-4 regions for the 2 seasonal forecasts, show closer agreement between the initialized forecast than two, 10-member non-initialized ensemble forecasts. The main conclusion here is that a single forecast with the coupled initialization outperforms, in SST anomaly prediction, against each of the control forecasts (members of the ensemble) which do not include such an initialization

  7. Analysis of the mass media coverage of the Gates Foundation grand challenges in global health initiative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verma, G

    2009-03-01

    The Grand Challenges were launched in 2003 by the Gates Foundation and other collaborators to address the health needs of developing countries. This paper outlines the current problem with health research and development in the context of inequality as conveyed by the 90/10 divide. The paper then looks at the focus and nature of press reporting of global health issues by analysing how press articles have portrayed the Grand Challenges in Global Health initiative. Analysis of the mass media illustrates that the focus of reporting on the Grand Challenges tends to be on utilitarian themes, leaving issues related to justice and equity comparatively under-reported.

  8. Progress in Global Multicompartmental Modelling of DDT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stemmler, I.; Lammel, G.

    2009-04-01

    Dichlorophenyltrichloroethane, DDT, and its major metabolite dichlorophenyldichloroethylene, DDE, are long-lived in the environment (persistent) and circulate since the 1950s. They accumulate along food chains, cause detrimental effects in marine and terrestrial wild life, and pose a hazard for human health. DDT was widely used as an insecticide in the past and is still in use in a number of tropical countries to combat vector borne diseases like malaria and typhus. It is a multicompartmental substance with only a small mass fraction residing in air. A global multicompartment chemistry transport model (MPI-MCTM; Semeena et al., 2006) is used to study the environmental distribution and fate of dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT). For the first time a horizontally and vertically resolved global model was used to perform a long-term simulation of DDT and DDE. The model is based on general circulation models for the ocean (MPIOM; Marsland et al., 2003) and atmosphere (ECHAM5). In addition, an oceanic biogeochemistry model (HAMOCC5.1; Maier-Reimer et al., 2005 ) and a microphysical aerosol model (HAM; Stier et al., 2005 ) are included. Multicompartmental substances are cycling in atmosphere (3 phases), ocean (3 phases), top soil (3 phases), and vegetation surfaces. The model was run for 40 years forced with historical agricultural application data of 1950-1990. The model results show that the global environmental contamination started to decrease in air, soil and vegetation after the applications peaked in 1965-70. In some regions, however, the DDT mass had not yet reached a maximum in 1990 and was still accumulating mass until the end of the simulation. Modelled DDT and DDE concentrations in atmosphere, ocean and soil are evaluated by comparison with observational data. The evaluation of the model results indicate that degradation of DDE in air was underestimated. Also for DDT, the discrepancies between model results and observations are related to uncertainties of

  9. A satellite-based global landslide model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Farahmand

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Landslides are devastating phenomena that cause huge damage around the world. This paper presents a quasi-global landslide model derived using satellite precipitation data, land-use land cover maps, and 250 m topography information. This suggested landslide model is based on the Support Vector Machines (SVM, a machine learning algorithm. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC landslide inventory data is used as observations and reference data. In all, 70% of the data are used for model development and training, whereas 30% are used for validation and verification. The results of 100 random subsamples of available landslide observations revealed that the suggested landslide model can predict historical landslides reliably. The average error of 100 iterations of landslide prediction is estimated to be approximately 7%, while approximately 2% false landslide events are observed.

  10. A hydroclimatic model of global fire patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boer, Matthias

    2015-04-01

    Satellite-based earth observation is providing an increasingly accurate picture of global fire patterns. The highest fire activity is observed in seasonally dry (sub-)tropical environments of South America, Africa and Australia, but fires occur with varying frequency, intensity and seasonality in almost all biomes on Earth. The particular combination of these fire characteristics, or fire regime, is known to emerge from the combined influences of climate, vegetation, terrain and land use, but has so far proven difficult to reproduce by global models. Uncertainty about the biophysical drivers and constraints that underlie current global fire patterns is propagated in model predictions of how ecosystems, fire regimes and biogeochemical cycles may respond to projected future climates. Here, I present a hydroclimatic model of global fire patterns that predicts the mean annual burned area fraction (F) of 0.25° x 0.25° grid cells as a function of the climatic water balance. Following Bradstock's four-switch model, long-term fire activity levels were assumed to be controlled by fuel productivity rates and the likelihood that the extant fuel is dry enough to burn. The frequency of ignitions and favourable fire weather were assumed to be non-limiting at long time scales. Fundamentally, fuel productivity and fuel dryness are a function of the local water and energy budgets available for the production and desiccation of plant biomass. The climatic water balance summarizes the simultaneous availability of biologically usable energy and water at a site, and may therefore be expected to explain a significant proportion of global variation in F. To capture the effect of the climatic water balance on fire activity I focused on the upper quantiles of F, i.e. the maximum level of fire activity for a given climatic water balance. Analysing GFED4 data for annual burned area together with gridded climate data, I found that nearly 80% of the global variation in the 0.99 quantile of F

  11. Using global analysis models of water resources as an initial measure in management proposals concerning the artificial recharge of aquifers; Empleo de modelos de analisis global de recursos hidricos como primera actuacion a emprender en propuestas de gestion que contemplen operaciones de recarga artificial de acuiferos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Murillo, J. M.; Navarro, J. A.

    2008-07-01

    This paper discusses artificial recharge not as an individual component disconnected from the other elements that make up a system of water resources, but as an integrated part of such a system, one that is interrelated with all the others, such that any action affecting a given element may affect the recharge operation, and vice versa. The methodology applied throughout this study is based on the technique of systems analysis, and makes use of the AQUATOOL software package with respect to assessing guarantees, water availability for the artificial recharge operation and the suitability of the host aquifer. The results obtained show that it is necessary, in the first place, to draw up a global model of water resources, incorporating all the elements that constitute the system; then, taking into account the results obtained, a viability analysis should be made of the artificial recharge operation, by means of a numerical model of the relevant parameters for the aquifer(s) in question. This model should specify in detail the infiltration operation proposed. If deemed appropriate, and either before or after drawing up the parameter model, a pilot artificial recharge plant can be constructed, so that a small-scale assay may be made of specific aspects of the artificial recharge; in any case, such a pilot plant should always be constructed after obtaining the global analysis model of water resources. The practical application described in this paper refers to the Quiebrajano-Viboras water exploitation system, which is located in the province of Jaen (Spain). (Author) 43 refs.

  12. Tree-Based Global Model Tests for Polytomous Rasch Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komboz, Basil; Strobl, Carolin; Zeileis, Achim

    2018-01-01

    Psychometric measurement models are only valid if measurement invariance holds between test takers of different groups. Global model tests, such as the well-established likelihood ratio (LR) test, are sensitive to violations of measurement invariance, such as differential item functioning and differential step functioning. However, these…

  13. Global and local level density models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koning, A.J.; Hilaire, S.; Goriely, S.

    2008-01-01

    Four different level density models, three phenomenological and one microscopic, are consistently parameterized using the same set of experimental observables. For each of the phenomenological models, the Constant Temperature Model, the Back-shifted Fermi gas Model and the Generalized Superfluid Model, a version without and with explicit collective enhancement is considered. Moreover, a recently published microscopic combinatorial model is compared with the phenomenological approaches and with the same set of experimental data. For each nuclide for which sufficient experimental data exists, a local level density parameterization is constructed for each model. Next, these local models have helped to construct global level density prescriptions, to be used for cases for which no experimental data exists. Altogether, this yields a collection of level density formulae and parameters that can be used with confidence in nuclear model calculations. To demonstrate this, a large-scale validation with experimental discrete level schemes and experimental cross sections and neutron emission spectra for various different reaction channels has been performed

  14. A Global Model of Meteoric Sodium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsh, Daniel R.; Janches, Diego; Feng, Wuhu; Plane, John M. C.

    2013-01-01

    A global model of sodium in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere has been developed within the framework of the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). The standard fully interactive WACCM chemistry module has been augmented with a chemistry scheme that includes nine neutral and ionized sodium species. Meteoric ablation provides the source of sodium in the model and is represented as a combination of a meteoroid input function (MIF) and a parameterized ablation model. The MIF provides the seasonally and latitudinally varying meteoric flux which is modeled taking into consideration the astronomical origins of sporadic meteors and considers variations in particle entry angle, velocity, mass, and the differential ablation of the chemical constituents. WACCM simulations show large variations in the sodium constituents over time scales from days to months. Seasonality of sodium constituents is strongly affected by variations in the MIF and transport via the mean meridional wind. In particular, the summer to winter hemisphere flow leads to the highest sodium species concentrations and loss rates occurring over the winter pole. In the Northern Hemisphere, this winter maximum can be dramatically affected by stratospheric sudden warmings. Simulations of the January 2009 major warming event show that it caused a short-term decrease in the sodium column over the polar cap that was followed by a factor of 3 increase in the following weeks. Overall, the modeled distribution of atomic sodium in WACCM agrees well with both ground-based and satellite observations. Given the strong sensitivity of the sodium layer to dynamical motions, reproducing its variability provides a stringent test of global models and should help to constrain key atmospheric variables in this poorly sampled region of the atmosphere.

  15. Global initiatives to prevent nuclear terrorism; Globalt initiativ for aa hindre nukleaer terrorisme

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2010-07-01

    The fight against nuclear and radiological terrorism - someone to blow up a nuclear weapon or spread radioactive material as a 'dirty bomb' that act of terrorism - is one of the most serious threats to international security. The Global Initiative to prevent nuclear terrorism is a Norwegian-sponsored initiative that is aimed directly at combating terrorism by non-state actors. NRPA follow up Norwegian measures, including in Kazakhstan, and verifies that they are implemented and functioning as intended. (AG)

  16. Global adjoint tomography: first-generation model

    KAUST Repository

    Bozdağ, Ebru

    2016-09-23

    We present the first-generation global tomographic model constructed based on adjoint tomography, an iterative full-waveform inversion technique. Synthetic seismograms were calculated using GPU-accelerated spectral-element simulations of global seismic wave propagation, accommodating effects due to 3-D anelastic crust & mantle structure, topography & bathymetry, the ocean load, ellipticity, rotation, and self-gravitation. Fréchet derivatives were calculated in 3-D anelastic models based on an adjoint-state method. The simulations were performed on the Cray XK7 named \\'Titan\\', a computer with 18 688 GPU accelerators housed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The transversely isotropic global model is the result of 15 tomographic iterations, which systematically reduced differences between observed and simulated three-component seismograms. Our starting model combined 3-D mantle model S362ANI with 3-D crustal model Crust2.0. We simultaneously inverted for structure in the crust and mantle, thereby eliminating the need for widely used \\'crustal corrections\\'. We used data from 253 earthquakes in the magnitude range 5.8 ≤ M ≤ 7.0. We started inversions by combining ~30 s body-wave data with ~60 s surface-wave data. The shortest period of the surface waves was gradually decreased, and in the last three iterations we combined ~17 s body waves with ~45 s surface waves. We started using 180 min long seismograms after the 12th iteration and assimilated minor- and major-arc body and surface waves. The 15th iteration model features enhancements of well-known slabs, an enhanced image of the Samoa/Tahiti plume, as well as various other plumes and hotspots, such as Caroline, Galapagos, Yellowstone and Erebus. Furthermore, we see clear improvements in slab resolution along the Hellenic and Japan Arcs, as well as subduction along the East of Scotia Plate, which does not exist in the starting model. Point-spread function tests demonstrate that we are approaching the

  17. Global mobility orientation and the success of self-initiated expatriates in greater China

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauring, Jakob; Selmer, Jan

    2014-01-01

    We investigated 640 self-initiated expatriate academics residing in Greater China. We examined whether their inherent demographic characteristics (age/gender) and acquired demographic characteristics (marital status/seniority) differentiated their work outcomes regarding job adjustment, time...... to proficiency, performance and satisfaction. We also explored the associations between global mobility orientation and these four work outcomes and examined to what extent the demographic characteristics differentiated the relationships. Results support most hypothesized differences. We found that a global...... mobility orientation was associated with all the work outcomes, except satisfaction. For inherent demographic characteristics, we found support for our hypotheses that for individuals with less successful demographics (younger, male), there was a stronger relationship between global mobility orientation...

  18. Application of Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) in the sustainability reporting of financial services

    OpenAIRE

    MONTE, TOMAS

    2009-01-01

    Sustainability reporting refers to the process in which an organization gives an account of issues related to corporate sustainability over a particular reporting period. The report is meant for both internal and external use. Sustainability reporting gives information about the organization’s interactions with its social and ecological environment. The Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) has pioneered the development of the world’s most widely used sustainability reporting framework. GRI Repor...

  19. REPORTING SOCIETAL : LIMITES ET ENJEUX DE LA PROPOSITION DE NORMALISATION INTERNATIONALE " GLOBAL REPORTING INITIATIVE "

    OpenAIRE

    Michel Capron; Françoise Quairel

    2003-01-01

    International audience; En s'inspirant de la normalisation comptable anglo-saxonne, la Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) propose un référentiel de publication volontaire d'informations sociétales. La transposition présente des limites qui rendent en fait ses principes inapplicables. Néanmoins il tend à s'imposer et les grandes entreprises peuvent y trouver le moyen d'éviter une régulation contraignante.

  20. World Federation of Pediatric Intensive Care and Critical Care Societies: Global Sepsis Initiative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kissoon, Niranjan; Carcillo, Joseph A; Espinosa, Victor; Argent, Andrew; Devictor, Denis; Madden, Maureen; Singhi, Sunit; van der Voort, Edwin; Latour, Jos

    2011-09-01

    According to World Health Organization estimates, sepsis accounts for 60%-80% of lost lives per year in childhood. Measures appropriate for resource-scarce and resource-abundant settings alike can reduce sepsis deaths. In this regard, the World Federation of Pediatric Intensive Care and Critical Care Societies Board of Directors announces the Global Pediatric Sepsis Initiative, a quality improvement program designed to improve quality of care for children with sepsis. To announce the global sepsis initiative; to justify some of the bundles that are included; and to show some preliminary data and encourage participation. The Global Pediatric Sepsis Initiative is developed as a Web-based education, demonstration, and pyramid bundles/checklist tool (http://www.pediatricsepsis.org or http://www.wfpiccs.org). Four health resource categories are included. Category A involves a nonindustrialized setting with mortality rate 30 of 1,000 children. Category B involves a nonindustrialized setting with mortality rate children. Category C involves a developing industrialized nation. In category D, developed industrialized nation are determined and separate accompanying administrative and clinical parameters bundles or checklist quality improvement recommendations are provided, requiring greater resources and tasks as resource allocation increased from groups A to D, respectively. In the vanguard phase, data for 361 children (category A, n = 34; category B, n = 12; category C, n = 84; category D, n = 231) were successfully entered, and quality-assurance reports were sent to the 23 participating international centers. Analysis of bundles for categories C and D showed that reduction in mortality was associated with compliance with the resuscitation (odds ratio, 0.369; 95% confidence interval, 0.188-0.724; p Initiative is online. Success in reducing pediatric mortality and morbidity, evaluated yearly as a measure of global child health care quality improvement, requires ongoing

  1. Assessments in the Global Peace Operations Initiative: A Systems Engineering Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-01

    police unit GCC GPOI Coordination Committee GIG GPOI Implementation Guide GPOI Global Peace Operations Initiative GRC GPOI Regional Committee G8...degree necessary to build a coherent assessments framework. The GPOI Implementation Guide ( GIG ) begins by alluding to what the program intended to...elements and associated interactions fully observed and understood. Using the U.S. economy as an example, Driscoll (2011) illustrates the common

  2. Emergence of a global science–business initiative for ocean stewardship

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jouffray, Jean-Baptiste; Folke, Carl; Rockström, Johan

    2017-01-01

    The ocean represents a fundamental source of micronutrients and protein for a growing world population. Seafood is a highly traded and sought after commodity on international markets, and is critically dependent on healthy marine ecosystems. A global trend of wild stocks being overfished and in decline, as well as multiple sustainability challenges associated with a rapid growth of aquaculture, represent key concerns in relation to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Existing efforts aimed to improve the sustainability of seafood production have generated important progress, primarily at the local and national levels, but have yet to effectively address the global challenges associated with the ocean. This study highlights the importance of transnational corporations in enabling transformative change, and thereby contributes to advancing the limited understanding of large-scale private actors within the sustainability science literature. We describe how we engaged with large seafood producers to coproduce a global science–business initiative for ocean stewardship. We suggest that this initiative is improving the prospects for transformative change by providing novel links between science and business, between wild-capture fisheries and aquaculture, and across geographical space. We argue that scientists can play an important role in facilitating change by connecting knowledge to action among global actors, while recognizing risks associated with such engagement. The methods developed through this case study contribute to identifying key competences in sustainability science and hold promises for other sectors as well. PMID:28784792

  3. Emergence of a global science-business initiative for ocean stewardship.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Österblom, Henrik; Jouffray, Jean-Baptiste; Folke, Carl; Rockström, Johan

    2017-08-22

    The ocean represents a fundamental source of micronutrients and protein for a growing world population. Seafood is a highly traded and sought after commodity on international markets, and is critically dependent on healthy marine ecosystems. A global trend of wild stocks being overfished and in decline, as well as multiple sustainability challenges associated with a rapid growth of aquaculture, represent key concerns in relation to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Existing efforts aimed to improve the sustainability of seafood production have generated important progress, primarily at the local and national levels, but have yet to effectively address the global challenges associated with the ocean. This study highlights the importance of transnational corporations in enabling transformative change, and thereby contributes to advancing the limited understanding of large-scale private actors within the sustainability science literature. We describe how we engaged with large seafood producers to coproduce a global science-business initiative for ocean stewardship. We suggest that this initiative is improving the prospects for transformative change by providing novel links between science and business, between wild-capture fisheries and aquaculture, and across geographical space. We argue that scientists can play an important role in facilitating change by connecting knowledge to action among global actors, while recognizing risks associated with such engagement. The methods developed through this case study contribute to identifying key competences in sustainability science and hold promises for other sectors as well.

  4. Challenges in Modeling of the Global Atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janjic, Zavisa; Djurdjevic, Vladimir; Vasic, Ratko; Black, Tom

    2015-04-01

    ") with significant amplitudes can develop. Due to their large scales, that are comparable to the scales of the dominant Rossby waves, such fictitious solutions are hard to identify and remove. Another new challenge on the global scale is that the limit of validity of the hydrostatic approximation is rapidly being approached. Having in mind the sensitivity of extended deterministic forecasts to small disturbances, we may need global non-hydrostatic models sooner than we think. The unified Non-hydrostatic Multi-scale Model (NMMB) that is being developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) as a part of the new NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) will be discussed as an example. The non-hydrostatic dynamics were designed in such a way as to avoid over-specification. The global version is run on the latitude-longitude grid, and the polar filter selectively slows down the waves that would otherwise be unstable. The model formulation has been successfully tested on various scales. A global forecasting system based on the NMMB has been run in order to test and tune the model. The skill of the medium range forecasts produced by the NMMB is comparable to that of other major medium range models. The computational efficiency of the global NMMB on parallel computers is good.

  5. A Student-Led Global Health Education Initiative: Reflections on the Kenyan Village Medical Education Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    John, Christopher; Asquith, Heidi; Wren, Tom; Mercuri, Stephanie; Brownlow, Sian

    2016-01-01

    The Kenyan Village Medical Education Program is a student-led global health initiative that seeks to improve health outcomes in rural Kenya through culturally appropriate health education. The month-long program, which is organised by the Melbourne University Health Initiative (Australia), is conducted each January in southern rural Kenya. Significance for public health The Kenyan Village Medical Education (KVME) Program is a student-led global health initiative that involves exploring well-established strategies for the prevention of disease through workshops that are conducted in southern rural Kenya. These workshops are tailored to the unique needs and circumstances of rural Kenyan communities, and are delivered to community leaders, as well as to adults and children within the wider community. Aside from the KVME Program’s emphasis on reducing the burden of preventable disease through health education, the positive impact of the KVME Program on the Program’s student volunteers also deserves consideration. Throughout the month-long KVME Program, student volunteers are presented with opportunities to develop their understanding of cultural competency, the social and economic determinants of health, as well as the unique challenges associated with working in resource-poor communities. Importantly, the KVME Program also represents an avenue through which global health leadership can be fostered amongst student volunteers. PMID:27190974

  6. Oversight role of the Independent Monitoring Board of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rutter, Paul D; Donaldson, Liam J

    2014-11-01

    The Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) established its Independent Monitoring Board (IMB) in 2010 to monitor and guide its progress toward stopping polio transmission globally. The concept of an IMB is innovative, with no clear analogue in the history of the GPEI or in any other global health program. The IMB meets with senior program officials every 3-6 months. Its reports provide analysis and recommendations about individual polio-affected countries. The IMB also examines issues affecting the global program as a whole. Its areas of focus have included escalating the level of priority afforded to polio eradication (particularly by recommending a World Health Assembly resolution to declare polio eradication a programmatic emergency, which was enacted in May 2012), placing greater emphasis on people factors in the delivery of the program, encouraging innovation, strengthening focus on the small number of so-called sanctuaries where polio persists, and continuous quality improvement to reach every missed child with vaccination. The IMB's true independence from the agencies and countries delivering the program has enabled it to raise difficult issues that others cannot. Other global health programs might benefit from establishing similar independent monitoring mechanisms. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  7. A method of recovering the initial vectors of globally coupled map lattices based on symbolic dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun Li-Sha; Kang Xiao-Yun; Zhang Qiong; Lin Lan-Xin

    2011-01-01

    Based on symbolic dynamics, a novel computationally efficient algorithm is proposed to estimate the unknown initial vectors of globally coupled map lattices (CMLs). It is proved that not all inverse chaotic mapping functions are satisfied for contraction mapping. It is found that the values in phase space do not always converge on their initial values with respect to sufficient backward iteration of the symbolic vectors in terms of global convergence or divergence (CD). Both CD property and the coupling strength are directly related to the mapping function of the existing CML. Furthermore, the CD properties of Logistic, Bernoulli, and Tent chaotic mapping functions are investigated and compared. Various simulation results and the performances of the initial vector estimation with different signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) are also provided to confirm the proposed algorithm. Finally, based on the spatiotemporal chaotic characteristics of the CML, the conditions of estimating the initial vectors using symbolic dynamics are discussed. The presented method provides both theoretical and experimental results for better understanding and characterizing the behaviours of spatiotemporal chaotic systems. (general)

  8. A method of recovering the initial vectors of globally coupled map lattices based on symbolic dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Li-Sha; Kang, Xiao-Yun; Zhang, Qiong; Lin, Lan-Xin

    2011-12-01

    Based on symbolic dynamics, a novel computationally efficient algorithm is proposed to estimate the unknown initial vectors of globally coupled map lattices (CMLs). It is proved that not all inverse chaotic mapping functions are satisfied for contraction mapping. It is found that the values in phase space do not always converge on their initial values with respect to sufficient backward iteration of the symbolic vectors in terms of global convergence or divergence (CD). Both CD property and the coupling strength are directly related to the mapping function of the existing CML. Furthermore, the CD properties of Logistic, Bernoulli, and Tent chaotic mapping functions are investigated and compared. Various simulation results and the performances of the initial vector estimation with different signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) are also provided to confirm the proposed algorithm. Finally, based on the spatiotemporal chaotic characteristics of the CML, the conditions of estimating the initial vectors using symbolic dynamics are discussed. The presented method provides both theoretical and experimental results for better understanding and characterizing the behaviours of spatiotemporal chaotic systems.

  9. Global plastic models for computerized structural analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roche, R.L.; Hoffmann, A.

    1977-01-01

    In many types of structures, it is possible to use generalized stresses (like membrane forces, bending moment, torsion moment...) to define a yield surface for a part of the structure. Analysis can be achieved by using the HILL's principle and a hardening rule. The whole formulation is said 'Global Plastic Model'. Two different global models are used in the CEASEMT system for structural analysis, one for shell analysis and the other for piping analysis (in plastic or creep field). In shell analysis the generalized stresses chosen are the membrane forces and bending (including torsion) moments. There is only one yield condition for a normal to the middle surface and no integration along the thickness is required. In piping analysis, the choice of generalized stresses is bending moments, torsional moment, hoop stress and tension stress. There is only a set of stresses for a cross section and no integration over the cross section area is needed. Connected strains are axis curvature, torsion, uniform strains. The definition of the yield surface is the most important item. A practical way is to use a diagonal quadratic function of the stress components. But the coefficients are depending of the shape of the pipe element, especially for curved segments. Indications will be given on the yield functions used. Some examples of applications in structural analysis are added to the text

  10. Transitioning Lessons Learned and Assets of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative to Global and Regional Measles and Rubella Elimination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kretsinger, Katrina; Strebel, Peter; Kezaala, Robert; Goodson, James L

    2017-07-01

    The Global Polio Eradication Initiative has built an extensive infrastructure with capabilities and resources that should be transitioned to measles and rubella elimination efforts. Measles continues to be a major cause of child mortality globally, and rubella continues to be the leading infectious cause of birth defects. Measles and rubella eradication is feasible and cost saving. The obvious similarities in strategies between polio elimination and measles and rubella elimination include the use of an extensive surveillance and laboratory network, outbreak preparedness and response, extensive communications and social mobilization networks, and the need for periodic supplementary immunization activities. Polio staff and resources are already connected with those of measles and rubella, and transitioning existing capabilities to measles and rubella elimination efforts allows for optimized use of resources and the best opportunity to incorporate important lessons learned from polio eradication, and polio resources are concentrated in the countries with the highest burden of measles and rubella. Measles and rubella elimination strategies rely heavily on achieving and maintaining high vaccination coverage through the routine immunization activity infrastructure, thus creating synergies with immunization systems approaches, in what is termed a "diagonal approach." © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

  11. A guide to the translation of the Global Initiative for Asthma (GINA) strategy into improved care

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boulet, Louis-Philippe; FitzGerald, J Mark; Levy, Mark L

    2012-01-01

    In 1995, the Global Initiative for Asthma (GINA) published an evidence-based workshop report as a guide to clinicians managing asthma patients, and has updated it annually to ensure that recommendations remain current. Although the report has been widely disseminated and influenced clinical...... practice and research, its major objective, of forming the basis for local and national initiatives to improve services for asthma patients, remains to be achieved. Over recent years, the science of guideline implementation has progressed, and encouraging examples of successful asthma programmes have been...... published. This report is intended to draw on this experience and assist with the translation of asthma guideline recommendations into quality programmes for patients with asthma using current knowledge translation principles. It also provides examples of successful initiatives in various socioeconomic...

  12. Modeling global scene factors in attention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torralba, Antonio

    2003-07-01

    Models of visual attention have focused predominantly on bottom-up approaches that ignored structured contextual and scene information. I propose a model of contextual cueing for attention guidance based on the global scene configuration. It is shown that the statistics of low-level features across the whole image can be used to prime the presence or absence of objects in the scene and to predict their location, scale, and appearance before exploring the image. In this scheme, visual context information can become available early in the visual processing chain, which allows modulation of the saliency of image regions and provides an efficient shortcut for object detection and recognition. 2003 Optical Society of America

  13. Global embedding of fibre inflation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cicoli, Michele [Dipartimento di Fisica e Astronomia, Università di Bologna,via Irnerio 46, 40126 Bologna (Italy); INFN - Sezione di Bologna,viale Berti Pichat 6/2, 40127 Bologna (Italy); Abdus Salam ICTP,Strada Costiera 11, Trieste 34151 (Italy); Muia, Francesco [Rudolf Peierls Centre for Theoretical Physics, University of Oxford,1 Keble Rd., Oxford OX1 3NP (United Kingdom); Shukla, Pramod [Abdus Salam ICTP,Strada Costiera 11, Trieste 34151 (Italy)

    2016-11-30

    We present concrete embeddings of fibre inflation models in globally consistent type IIB Calabi-Yau orientifolds with closed string moduli stabilisation. After performing a systematic search through the existing list of toric Calabi-Yau manifolds, we find several examples that reproduce the minimal setup to embed fibre inflation models. This involves Calabi-Yau manifolds with h{sup 1,1}=3 which are K3 fibrations over a ℙ{sup 1} base with an additional shrinkable rigid divisor. We then provide different consistent choices of the underlying brane set-up which generate a non-perturbative superpotential suitable for moduli stabilisation and string loop corrections with the correct form to drive inflation. For each Calabi-Yau orientifold setting, we also compute the effect of higher derivative contributions and study their influence on the inflationary dynamics.

  14. A Global Atmospheric Model of Meteoric Iron

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Wuhu; Marsh, Daniel R.; Chipperfield, Martyn P.; Janches, Diego; Hoffner, Josef; Yi, Fan; Plane, John M. C.

    2013-01-01

    The first global model of meteoric iron in the atmosphere (WACCM-Fe) has been developed by combining three components: the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), a description of the neutral and ion-molecule chemistry of iron in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT), and a treatment of the injection of meteoric constituents into the atmosphere. The iron chemistry treats seven neutral and four ionized iron containing species with 30 neutral and ion-molecule reactions. The meteoric input function (MIF), which describes the injection of Fe as a function of height, latitude, and day, is precalculated from an astronomical model coupled to a chemical meteoric ablation model (CABMOD). This newly developed WACCM-Fe model has been evaluated against a number of available ground-based lidar observations and performs well in simulating the mesospheric atomic Fe layer. The model reproduces the strong positive correlation of temperature and Fe density around the Fe layer peak and the large anticorrelation around 100 km. The diurnal tide has a significant effect in the middle of the layer, and the model also captures well the observed seasonal variations. However, the model overestimates the peak Fe+ concentration compared with the limited rocket-borne mass spectrometer data available, although good agreement on the ion layer underside can be obtained by adjusting the rate coefficients for dissociative recombination of Fe-molecular ions with electrons. Sensitivity experiments with the same chemistry in a 1-D model are used to highlight significant remaining uncertainties in reaction rate coefficients, and to explore the dependence of the total Fe abundance on the MIF and rate of vertical transport.

  15. The Software Architecture of Global Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, K. A.; Easterbrook, S. M.

    2011-12-01

    It has become common to compare and contrast the output of multiple global climate models (GCMs), such as in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). However, intercomparisons of the software architecture of GCMs are almost nonexistent. In this qualitative study of seven GCMs from Canada, the United States, and Europe, we attempt to fill this gap in research. We describe the various representations of the climate system as computer programs, and account for architectural differences between models. Most GCMs now practice component-based software engineering, where Earth system components (such as the atmosphere or land surface) are present as highly encapsulated sub-models. This architecture facilitates a mix-and-match approach to climate modelling that allows for convenient sharing of model components between institutions, but it also leads to difficulty when choosing where to draw the lines between systems that are not encapsulated in the real world, such as sea ice. We also examine different styles of couplers in GCMs, which manage interaction and data flow between components. Finally, we pay particular attention to the varying levels of complexity in GCMs, both between and within models. Many GCMs have some components that are significantly more complex than others, a phenomenon which can be explained by the respective institution's research goals as well as the origin of the model components. In conclusion, although some features of software architecture have been adopted by every GCM we examined, other features show a wide range of different design choices and strategies. These architectural differences may provide new insights into variability and spread between models.

  16. Sensitivities in global scale modeling of isoprene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. von Kuhlmann

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available A sensitivity study of the treatment of isoprene and related parameters in 3D atmospheric models was conducted using the global model of tropospheric chemistry MATCH-MPIC. A total of twelve sensitivity scenarios which can be grouped into four thematic categories were performed. These four categories consist of simulations with different chemical mechanisms, different assumptions concerning the deposition characteristics of intermediate products, assumptions concerning the nitrates from the oxidation of isoprene and variations of the source strengths. The largest differences in ozone compared to the reference simulation occured when a different isoprene oxidation scheme was used (up to 30-60% or about 10 nmol/mol. The largest differences in the abundance of peroxyacetylnitrate (PAN were found when the isoprene emission strength was reduced by 50% and in tests with increased or decreased efficiency of the deposition of intermediates. The deposition assumptions were also found to have a significant effect on the upper tropospheric HOx production. Different implicit assumptions about the loss of intermediate products were identified as a major reason for the deviations among the tested isoprene oxidation schemes. The total tropospheric burden of O3 calculated in the sensitivity runs is increased compared to the background methane chemistry by 26±9  Tg( O3 from 273 to an average from the sensitivity runs of 299 Tg(O3. % revised Thus, there is a spread of ± 35% of the overall effect of isoprene in the model among the tested scenarios. This range of uncertainty and the much larger local deviations found in the test runs suggest that the treatment of isoprene in global models can only be seen as a first order estimate at present, and points towards specific processes in need of focused future work.

  17. Ørsted Initial Field Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Nils; Holme, R.; Hulot, G.

    2000-01-01

    Magnetic measurements taken by the Orsted satellite during geomagnetic quiet conditions around January 1, 2000 have been used to derive a spherical harmonic model of the Earth's magnetic field for epoch 2000.0. The maximum degree and order of the model is 19 for internal, and 2 for external, source...... fields; however, coefficients above degree 14 may not be robust. Such a detailed model exists for only one previous epoch, 1980. Achieved rms misfit is ... to the Orsted mission, this model supercedes IGRF 2000....

  18. Global Soil Moisture from the Aquarius/SAC-D Satellite: Description and Initial Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bindlish, Rajat; Jackson, Thomas; Cosh, Michael; Zhao, Tianjie; O'Neil, Peggy

    2015-01-01

    Aquarius satellite observations over land offer a new resource for measuring soil moisture from space. Although Aquarius was designed for ocean salinity mapping, our objective in this investigation is to exploit the large amount of land observations that Aquarius acquires and extend the mission scope to include the retrieval of surface soil moisture. The soil moisture retrieval algorithm development focused on using only the radiometer data because of the extensive heritage of passive microwave retrieval of soil moisture. The single channel algorithm (SCA) was implemented using the Aquarius observations to estimate surface soil moisture. Aquarius radiometer observations from three beams (after bias/gain modification) along with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction model forecast surface temperatures were then used to retrieve soil moisture. Ancillary data inputs required for using the SCA are vegetation water content, land surface temperature, and several soil and vegetation parameters based on land cover classes. The resulting global spatial patterns of soil moisture were consistent with the precipitation climatology and with soil moisture from other satellite missions (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System and Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity). Initial assessments were performed using in situ observations from the U.S. Department of Agriculture Little Washita and Little River watershed soil moisture networks. Results showed good performance by the algorithm for these land surface conditions for the period of August 2011-June 2013 (rmse = 0.031 m(exp 3)/m(exp 3), Bias = -0.007 m(exp 3)/m(exp 3), and R = 0.855). This radiometer-only soil moisture product will serve as a baseline for continuing research on both active and combined passive-active soil moisture algorithms. The products are routinely available through the National Aeronautics and Space Administration data archive at the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

  19. Initial global 2-D shielding analysis for the Advanced Neutron Source core and reflector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bucholz, J.A.

    1995-08-01

    This document describes the initial global 2-D shielding analyses for the Advanced Neutron Source (ANS) reactor, the D{sub 2}O reflector, the reflector vessel, and the first 200 mm of light water beyond the reflector vessel. Flux files generated here will later serve as source terms in subsequent shielding analyses. In addition to reporting fluxes and other data at key points of interest, a major objective of this report was to document how these analyses were performed, the phenomena that were included, and checks that were made to verify that these phenomena were properly modeled. In these shielding analyses, the fixed neutron source distribution in the core was based on the `lifetime-averaged` spatial power distribution. Secondary gamma production cross sections in the fuel were modified so as to account intrinsically for delayed fission gammas in the fuel as well as prompt fission gammas. In and near the fuel, this increased the low-energy gamma fluxes by 50 to 250%, but out near the reflector vessel, these same fluxes changed by only a few percent. Sensitivity studies with respect to mesh size were performed, and a new 2-D mesh distribution developed after some problems were discovered with respect to the use of numerous elongated mesh cells in the reflector. All of the shielding analyses were performed sing the ANSL-V 39n/44g coupled library with 25 thermal neutron groups in order to obtain a rigorous representation of the thermal neutron spectrum throughout the reflector. Because of upscatter in the heavy water, convergence was very slow. Ultimately, the fission cross section in the various materials had to be artificially modified in order to solve this fixed source problem as an eigenvalue problem and invoke the Vondy error-mode extrapolation technique which greatly accelerated convergence in the large 2-D RZ DORT analyses. While this was quite effective, 150 outer iterations (over energy) were still required.

  20. Initial global 2-D shielding analysis for the Advanced Neutron Source core and reflector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bucholz, J.A.

    1995-08-01

    This document describes the initial global 2-D shielding analyses for the Advanced Neutron Source (ANS) reactor, the D 2 O reflector, the reflector vessel, and the first 200 mm of light water beyond the reflector vessel. Flux files generated here will later serve as source terms in subsequent shielding analyses. In addition to reporting fluxes and other data at key points of interest, a major objective of this report was to document how these analyses were performed, the phenomena that were included, and checks that were made to verify that these phenomena were properly modeled. In these shielding analyses, the fixed neutron source distribution in the core was based on the 'lifetime-averaged' spatial power distribution. Secondary gamma production cross sections in the fuel were modified so as to account intrinsically for delayed fission gammas in the fuel as well as prompt fission gammas. In and near the fuel, this increased the low-energy gamma fluxes by 50 to 250%, but out near the reflector vessel, these same fluxes changed by only a few percent. Sensitivity studies with respect to mesh size were performed, and a new 2-D mesh distribution developed after some problems were discovered with respect to the use of numerous elongated mesh cells in the reflector. All of the shielding analyses were performed sing the ANSL-V 39n/44g coupled library with 25 thermal neutron groups in order to obtain a rigorous representation of the thermal neutron spectrum throughout the reflector. Because of upscatter in the heavy water, convergence was very slow. Ultimately, the fission cross section in the various materials had to be artificially modified in order to solve this fixed source problem as an eigenvalue problem and invoke the Vondy error-mode extrapolation technique which greatly accelerated convergence in the large 2-D RZ DORT analyses. While this was quite effective, 150 outer iterations (over energy) were still required

  1. Evaluation of global solar radiation models for Shanghai, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yao, Wanxiang; Li, Zhengrong; Wang, Yuyan; Jiang, Fujian; Hu, Lingzhou

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • 108 existing models are compared and analyzed by 42 years meteorological data. • Fitting models based on measured data are established according to 42 years data. • All models are compared by recently 10 years meteorological data. • The results show that polynomial models are the most accurate models. - Abstract: In this paper, 89 existing monthly average daily global solar radiation models and 19 existing daily global solar radiation models are compared and analyzed by 42 years meteorological data. The results show that for existing monthly average daily global solar radiation models, linear models and polynomial models have been able to estimate global solar radiation accurately, and complex equation types cannot obviously improve the precision. Considering direct parameters such as latitude, altitude, solar altitude and sunshine duration can help improve the accuracy of the models, but indirect parameters cannot. For existing daily global solar radiation models, multi-parameter models are more accurate than single-parameter models, polynomial models are more accurate than linear models. Then measured data fitting monthly average daily global solar radiation models (MADGSR models) and daily global solar radiation models (DGSR models) are established according to 42 years meteorological data. Finally, existing models and fitting models based on measured data are comparative analysis by recent 10 years meteorological data, and the results show that polynomial models (MADGSR model 2, DGSR model 2 and Maduekwe model 2) are the most accurate models

  2. NAIRAS aircraft radiation model development, dose climatology, and initial validation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mertens, Christopher J; Meier, Matthias M; Brown, Steven; Norman, Ryan B; Xu, Xiaojing

    2013-10-01

    [1] The Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) is a real-time, global, physics-based model used to assess radiation exposure to commercial aircrews and passengers. The model is a free-running physics-based model in the sense that there are no adjustment factors applied to nudge the model into agreement with measurements. The model predicts dosimetric quantities in the atmosphere from both galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar energetic particles, including the response of the geomagnetic field to interplanetary dynamical processes and its subsequent influence on atmospheric dose. The focus of this paper is on atmospheric GCR exposure during geomagnetically quiet conditions, with three main objectives. First, provide detailed descriptions of the NAIRAS GCR transport and dosimetry methodologies. Second, present a climatology of effective dose and ambient dose equivalent rates at typical commercial airline altitudes representative of solar cycle maximum and solar cycle minimum conditions and spanning the full range of geomagnetic cutoff rigidities. Third, conduct an initial validation of the NAIRAS model by comparing predictions of ambient dose equivalent rates with tabulated reference measurement data and recent aircraft radiation measurements taken in 2008 during the minimum between solar cycle 23 and solar cycle 24. By applying the criterion of the International Commission on Radiation Units and Measurements (ICRU) on acceptable levels of aircraft radiation dose uncertainty for ambient dose equivalent greater than or equal to an annual dose of 1 mSv, the NAIRAS model is within 25% of the measured data, which fall within the ICRU acceptable uncertainty limit of 30%. The NAIRAS model predictions of ambient dose equivalent rate are generally within 50% of the measured data for any single-point comparison. The largest differences occur at low latitudes and high cutoffs, where the radiation dose level is low. Nevertheless, analysis

  3. Initiation of Setaria as a model plant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xianmin DIAO,James SCHNABLE,Jeffrey L. BENNETZEN,Jiayang LI

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Model organisms such as Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana and rice (Oryza sativa have proven essential for efficient scientific discovery and development of new methods. With the diversity of plant lineages, some important processes such as C4 photosynthesis are not found in either Arabidopsis or rice, so new model species are needed. Due to their small diploid genomes, short life cycles, self-pollination, small adult statures and prolific seed production, domesticated foxtail millet (Setaria italica and its wild ancestor, green foxtail (S. viridis, have recently been proposed as novel model species for functional genomics of the Panicoideae, especially for study of C4 photosynthesis. This review outlines the development of these species as model organisms, and discusses current challenges and future potential of a Setaria model.

  4. Developing and implementing a data acquisition strategy for global agricultural monitoring: an inter-agency initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Justice, C. O.; Whitcraft, A. K.; Becker-Reshef, I.; Killough, B.

    2013-12-01

    In 2011, in response to global food crises, the G20 Agricultural Ministers launched a satellite-based global agricultural monitoring initiative to develop the Group on Earth Observations Global Agriculture Monitoring (GEOGLAM) system. The GEO is aimed at enhancing the availability and use of both satellite and in situ data for societal benefit. This initiative builds on the observation requirements developed by the GEO Agricultural Community of Practice, the understanding that no one satellite system can currently provide all the data needed for agricultural monitoring and the resulting recommendation for improved acquisition and availability of data by the World's space agencies. Implicit in this recommendation is the fact that certain regions of the Earth are imagery rich while others are imagery poor, leaving knowledge gaps about agricultural processes and food supply for certain areas of the World. In order to respond to these knowledge gaps and to strengthen national, regional, and global agricultural monitoring networks, GEOGLAM is working with the Committee on Earth Observations (CEOS), the space arm of GEO, to develop a coordinated global acquisition strategy. A key component of GEOGLAM is an effort to articulate the temporal and spatial Earth Observation (EO) requirements for monitoring; second, the identification of current and planned missions which are capable of fulfilling these EO requirements; and third, the development of a multi-agency, multi-mission image acquisition strategy for agricultural monitoring. CEOS engineers and GEOGLAM scientists have been collaborating on the EO requirements since 2012, and are now beginning the first implementation phase of the acquisition strategy. The goal is to put in place an operational system of systems using a virtual constellation of satellite-based sensors acquiring data to meet the needs for monitoring and early warning of shortfalls in agricultural production, a goal that was articulated in the 1970's

  5. Meningococcal disease in the Asia-Pacific region: Findings and recommendations from the Global Meningococcal Initiative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borrow, Ray; Lee, Jin-Soo; Vázquez, Julio A; Enwere, Godwin; Taha, Muhamed-Kheir; Kamiya, Hajime; Kim, Hwang Min; Jo, Dae Sun

    2016-11-21

    The Global Meningococcal Initiative (GMI) is a global expert group that includes scientists, clinicians, and public health officials with a wide range of specialties. The purpose of the Initiative is to promote the global prevention of meningococcal disease (MD) through education, research, and cooperation. The first Asia-Pacific regional meeting was held in November 2014. The GMI reviewed the epidemiology of MD, surveillance, and prevention strategies, and outbreak control practices from participating countries in the Asia-Pacific region.Although, in general, MD is underreported in this region, serogroup A disease is most prominent in low-income countries such as India and the Philippines, while Taiwan, Japan, and Korea reported disease from serogroups C, W, and Y. China has a mixed epidemiology of serogroups A, B, C, and W. Perspectives from countries outside of the region were also provided to provide insight into lessons learnt. Based on the available data and meeting discussions, a number of challenges and data gaps were identified and, as a consequence, several recommendations were formulated: strengthen surveillance; improve diagnosis, typing and case reporting; standardize case definitions; develop guidelines for outbreak management; and promote awareness of MD among healthcare professionals, public health officials, and the general public. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  6. Flying Training Capacity Model: Initial Results

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lynch, Susan

    2005-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: (1) Determine the flying training capacity for 6 bases: * Sheppard AFB * Randolph AFB * Moody AFB * Columbus AFB * Laughlin AFB * Vance AFB * (2) Develop versatile flying training capacity simulation model for AETC...

  7. A global digital elevation model - GTOP030

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-01-01

    GTOP030, the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) digital elevation model (DEM) of the Earth, provides the flrst global coverage of moderate resolution elevation data.  The original GTOP30 data set, which was developed over a 3-year period through a collaborative effort led by the USGS, was completed in 1996 at the USGS EROS Data Center in Sioux Falls, South Dakota.  The collaboration involved contributions of staffing, funding, or source data from cooperators including the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the United Nations Environment Programme Global Resource Information Database (UNEP/GRID), the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), the Instituto Nacional de Estadistica Geografia e Informatica (INEGI) of Mexico, the Geographical Survey Institute (GSI) of Japan, Manaaki Whenua Landcare Research of New Zealand, and the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR). In 1999, work was begun on an update to the GTOP030 data set. Additional data sources are being incorporated into GTOP030 with an enhanced and improved data set planned for release in 2000.

  8. The critical role of acute flaccid paralysis surveillance in the Global Polio Eradication Initiative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tangermann, Rudolf H; Lamoureux, Christine; Tallis, Graham; Goel, Ajay

    2017-05-01

    Acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) surveillance is a key strategy used by the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) to measure progress towards reaching the global eradication goal. Supported by a global polio laboratory network, AFP surveillance is conducted in 179 of 194 WHO member states. Active surveillance visits to priority health facilities are used to assure all children polio laboratories. The quality of AFP surveillance is regularly monitored with standardized surveillance quality indicators. In highest risk countries and areas, the sensitivity of AFP surveillance is enhanced by environmental surveillance (testing of sewage samples). Genetic sequencing of detected poliovirus isolates yields programmatically important information on polio transmission pathways. AFP surveillance is one of the most valuable assets of the GPEI, with the potential to serve as a platform to build integrated disease surveillance systems. Continued support to maintain AFP surveillance systems will be essential, to reliably monitor the completion of global polio eradication, and to assure that a key resource for building surveillance capacity is transitioned post-eradication to support other health priorities. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  9. Applying a global justice lens to health systems research ethics: an initial exploration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pratt, Bridget; Hyder, Adnan A

    2015-03-01

    Recent scholarship has considered what, if anything, rich people owe to poor people to achieve justice in global health and the implications of this for international research. Yet this work has primarily focused on international clinical research. Health systems research is increasingly being performed in low and middle income countries and is essential to reducing global health disparities. This paper provides an initial description of the ethical issues related to priority setting, capacity-building, and the provision of post-study benefits that arise during the conduct of such research. It presents a selection of issues discussed in the health systems research literature and argues that they constitute ethical concerns based on their being inconsistent with a particular theory of global justice (the health capability paradigm). Issues identified include the fact that priority setting for health systems research at the global level is often not driven by national priorities and that capacity-building efforts frequently utilize one-size-fits-all approaches.

  10. Global solubility of the three-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations with uniformly large initial vorticity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Makhalov, A S; Nikolaenko, V P

    2003-01-01

    This paper is a survey of results concerning the three-dimensional Navier-Stokes and Euler equations with initial data characterized by uniformly large vorticity. The existence of regular solutions of the three-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations on an unbounded time interval is proved for large initial data both in R 3 and in bounded cylindrical domains. Moreover, the existence of smooth solutions on large finite time intervals is established for the three-dimensional Euler equations. These results are obtained without additional assumptions on the behaviour of solutions for t>0. Any smooth solution is not close to any two-dimensional manifold. Our approach is based on the computation of singular limits of rapidly oscillating operators, non-linear averaging, and a consideration of the mutual absorption of non-linear oscillations of the vorticity field. The use of resonance conditions, methods from the theory of small divisors, and non-linear averaging of almost periodic functions leads to the limit resonant Navier-Stokes equations. Global solubility of these equations is proved without any conditions on the three-dimensional initial data. The global regularity of weak solutions of three-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations with uniformly large vorticity at t=0 is proved by using the regularity of weak solutions and the strong convergence

  11. An initial model for the RIED effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hodgson, E.R.; Morono, A.

    2000-01-01

    A simple model based on electron acceleration in the conduction band giving rise to an increased F + oxygen vacancy lifetime provides an explanation for several radiation induced electrical degradation (RIED) associated observations in Al 2 O 3 . The increased F + radioluminescence noted during RIED is a direct consequence of the lifetime increase. The model predicts the observed electric field threshold for RIED, and an increase in the field threshold with increasing impurity content. RIED for RF electric fields is also explained. In addition the lifetime increase provides an explanation for the enhanced oxygen vacancy aggregation including colloid and gamma alumina production observed under RIED conditions

  12. 2-D model of global aerosol transport

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rehkopf, J; Newiger, M; Grassl, H

    1984-01-01

    The distribution of aerosol particles in the troposphere is described. Starting with long term mean seasonal flow and diffusivities as well as temperature, cloud distribution (six cloud classes), relative humidity and OH radical concentration, the steady state concentration of aerosol particles and SO/sub 2/ are calculated in a two-dimensional global (height and latitude) model. The following sources and sinks for particles are handled: direct emission, gas-to-particle conversion from SO/sub 2/, coagulation, rainout, washout, gravitational settling, and dry deposition. The sinks considered for sulphur emissions are dry deposition, washout, rainout, gasphase oxidation, and aqueous phase oxidation. Model tests with the water vapour cycle show a good agreement between measured and calculated zonal mean precipitation distribution. The steady state concentration distribution for natural emissions reached after 10 weeks model time, may be described by a mean exponent ..cap alpha.. = 3.2 near the surface assuming a modified Junge distribution and an increased value, ..cap alpha.. = 3.7, for the combined natural and man-made emission. The maximum ground level concentrations are 2000 and 10,000 particules cm/sup -3/ for natural and natural plus man-made emissions, respectively. The resulting distribution of sulphur dioxide agrees satisfactorily with measurements given by several authors. 37 references, 4 figures.

  13. Integrated assessment models of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parson, E.A.; Fisher-Vanden, K.

    1997-01-01

    The authors review recent work in the integrated assessment modeling of global climate change. This field has grown rapidly since 1990. Integrated assessment models seek to combine knowledge from multiple disciplines in formal integrated representations; inform policy-making, structure knowledge, and prioritize key uncertainties; and advance knowledge of broad system linkages and feedbacks, particularly between socio-economic and bio-physical processes. They may combine simplified representations of the socio-economic determinants of greenhouse gas emissions, the atmosphere and oceans, impacts on human activities and ecosystems, and potential policies and responses. The authors summarize current projects, grouping them according to whether they emphasize the dynamics of emissions control and optimal policy-making, uncertainty, or spatial detail. They review the few significant insights that have been claimed from work to date and identify important challenges for integrated assessment modeling in its relationships to disciplinary knowledge and to broader assessment seeking to inform policy- and decision-making. 192 refs., 2 figs

  14. Global Initiative of the Special Olympics Movement for People with Intellectual Disabilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Myśliwiec Andrzej

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The mission of the Special Olympics is to provide year-round sports training and competition in a variety (33 of Olympic-type sports for children and adults with intellectual disabilities, giving them continuing opportunities to develop physical fitness, demonstrate courage, experience joy, and participate in sharing of gifts and friendship with their families, other athletes, and their communities. The Special Olympics movement often goes beyond the sports competition formula. During the last few years, the movement has developed many new global initiatives, which expand its former sports activities. They include:

  15. New Zealand among global social media initiative leaders for primary care advocacy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoedebecke, Kyle; Scott-Jones, Joseph; Pinho-Costa, Luís

    2016-06-01

    The international '#1WordforFamilyMedicine' initiative explores the identity of General Practitioners (GPs) and Family Physicians (FPs) by allowing the international Family Medicine community to collaborate on advocating for the discipline via social media. The New Zealand version attracted 83 responses on social media. Thematic analysis was performed on the responses and a 'word cloud' image was created based on an image identifying the country around the world - that of the silver fern. The '#1WorldforFamilyMedicine' project was promoted by WONCA (World Organisation of Family Doctors) globally to help celebrate World Family Doctor Day on 19 May 2015. To date, over 80 images have been created in 60 different countries on six continents. The images represent GPs' love for their profession and the community they serve. We hope that this initiative will help inspire current and future Family Medicine and Primary Care providers.

  16. Global Bedload Flux Modeling and Analysis in Large Rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Islam, M. T.; Cohen, S.; Syvitski, J. P.

    2017-12-01

    Proper sediment transport quantification has long been an area of interest for both scientists and engineers in the fields of geomorphology, and management of rivers and coastal waters. Bedload flux is important for monitoring water quality and for sustainable development of coastal and marine bioservices. Bedload measurements, especially for large rivers, is extremely scarce across time, and many rivers have never been monitored. Bedload measurements in rivers, is particularly acute in developing countries where changes in sediment yields is high. The paucity of bedload measurements is the result of 1) the nature of the problem (large spatial and temporal uncertainties), and 2) field costs including the time-consuming nature of the measurement procedures (repeated bedform migration tracking, bedload samplers). Here we present a first of its kind methodology for calculating bedload in large global rivers (basins are >1,000 km. Evaluation of model skill is based on 113 bedload measurements. The model predictions are compared with an empirical model developed from the observational dataset in an attempt to evaluate the differences between a physically-based numerical model and a lumped relationship between bedload flux and fluvial and basin parameters (e.g., discharge, drainage area, lithology). The initial study success opens up various applications to global fluvial geomorphology (e.g. including the relationship between suspended sediment (wash load) and bedload). Simulated results with known uncertainties offers a new research product as a valuable resource for the whole scientific community.

  17. BETR global - A geographically-explicit global-scale multimedia contaminant fate model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacLeod, Matthew; Waldow, Harald von; Tay, Pascal; Armitage, James M.; Woehrnschimmel, Henry; Riley, William J.; McKone, Thomas E.; Hungerbuhler, Konrad

    2011-01-01

    We present two new software implementations of the BETR Global multimedia contaminant fate model. The model uses steady-state or non-steady-state mass-balance calculations to describe the fate and transport of persistent organic pollutants using a desktop computer. The global environment is described using a database of long-term average monthly conditions on a 15 o x 15 o grid. We demonstrate BETR Global by modeling the global sources, transport, and removal of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5). - Two new software implementations of the Berkeley-Trent Global Contaminant Fate Model are available. The new model software is illustrated using a case study of the global fate of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5).

  18. The initiative on Model Organism Proteomes (iMOP) Session

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schrimpf, Sabine P; Mering, Christian von; Bendixen, Emøke

    2012-01-01

    iMOP – the Initiative on Model Organism Proteomes – was accepted as a new HUPO initiative at the Ninth HUPO meeting in Sydney in 2010. A goal of iMOP is to integrate research groups working on a great diversity of species into a model organism community. At the Tenth HUPO meeting in Geneva...

  19. Modelling and analysis of global coal markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trueby, Johannes

    2013-01-01

    International Steam Coal Trade. In this paper, we analyse steam coal market equilibria in the years 2006 and 2008 by testing for two possible market structure scenarios: perfect competition and an oligopoly setup with major exporters competing in quantities. The assumed oligopoly scenario cannot explain market equilibria for any year. While we find that the competitive model simulates market equilibria well in 2006, the competitive model is not able to reproduce real market outcomes in 2008. The analysis shows that not all available supply capacity was utilised in 2008. We conclude that either unknown capacity bottlenecks or more sophisticated non-competitive strategies were the cause for the high prices in 2008. Chapter 4 builds upon the findings of the analysis in chapter 3 and adds a more detailed representation of domestic markets. The corresponding essay is titled Nations as Strategic Players in Global Commodity Markets: Evidence from World Coal Trade. In this chapter we explore the hypothesis that export policies and trade patterns of national players in the steam coal market are consistent with non-competitive market behaviour. We test this hypothesis by developing a static equilibrium model which is able to model coal producing nations as strategic players. We explicitly account for integrated seaborne trade and domestic markets. The global steam coal market is simulated under several imperfect market structure setups. We find that trade and prices of a China - Indonesia duopoly fits the real market outcome best and that real Chinese export quotas in 2008 were consistent with simulated exports under a Cournot-Nash strategy. Chapter 5 looks at the long-term effect of Chinese energy system planning decisions. The time horizon is 2006 to 2030. The analysis in this chapter combines a dynamic equilibrium model with the scenario analysis technique. The corresponding essay is titled Coal Lumps vs. Electrons: How Do Chinese Bulk Energy Transport Decisions Affect the Global

  20. Modelling and analysis of global coal markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trueby, Johannes

    2013-01-17

    International Steam Coal Trade. In this paper, we analyse steam coal market equilibria in the years 2006 and 2008 by testing for two possible market structure scenarios: perfect competition and an oligopoly setup with major exporters competing in quantities. The assumed oligopoly scenario cannot explain market equilibria for any year. While we find that the competitive model simulates market equilibria well in 2006, the competitive model is not able to reproduce real market outcomes in 2008. The analysis shows that not all available supply capacity was utilised in 2008. We conclude that either unknown capacity bottlenecks or more sophisticated non-competitive strategies were the cause for the high prices in 2008. Chapter 4 builds upon the findings of the analysis in chapter 3 and adds a more detailed representation of domestic markets. The corresponding essay is titled Nations as Strategic Players in Global Commodity Markets: Evidence from World Coal Trade. In this chapter we explore the hypothesis that export policies and trade patterns of national players in the steam coal market are consistent with non-competitive market behaviour. We test this hypothesis by developing a static equilibrium model which is able to model coal producing nations as strategic players. We explicitly account for integrated seaborne trade and domestic markets. The global steam coal market is simulated under several imperfect market structure setups. We find that trade and prices of a China - Indonesia duopoly fits the real market outcome best and that real Chinese export quotas in 2008 were consistent with simulated exports under a Cournot-Nash strategy. Chapter 5 looks at the long-term effect of Chinese energy system planning decisions. The time horizon is 2006 to 2030. The analysis in this chapter combines a dynamic equilibrium model with the scenario analysis technique. The corresponding essay is titled Coal Lumps vs. Electrons: How Do Chinese Bulk Energy Transport Decisions Affect the Global

  1. Initiating Events Modeling for On-Line Risk Monitoring Application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simic, Z.; Mikulicic, V.

    1998-01-01

    In order to make on-line risk monitoring application of Probabilistic Risk Assessment more complete and realistic, a special attention need to be dedicated to initiating events modeling. Two different issues are of special importance: one is how to model initiating events frequency according to current plant configuration (equipment alignment and out of service status) and operating condition (weather and various activities), and the second is how to preserve dependencies between initiating events model and rest of PRA model. First, the paper will discuss how initiating events can be treated in on-line risk monitoring application. Second, practical example of initiating events modeling in EPRI's Equipment Out of Service on-line monitoring tool will be presented. Gains from application and possible improvements will be discussed in conclusion. (author)

  2. The global threat reduction initiative and conversion of isotope production to LEU targets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuperman, A. J.

    2005-01-01

    The U.S. Global Threat Reduction Initiative (GTRI) has given a decisive impetus to the RERTR program's longstanding goal of converting worldwide production of medical radioisotopes from reliance on bomb-grade, highly enriched uranium (HEU) to low-enriched uranium (LEU) unsuitable for weapons. Although the four major; isotope producers continue to resist calls for conversion, they face mounting pressure from a variety of fronts including: (1) GTRI; (2) a related, multilateral U.S. initiative to forge agreement on conversion among the states that are home to the major producers; (3) an IAEA effort to provide technical assistance that will facilitate large-scale production of medical isotopes using LEU by producers who seek to do so; (4) planned production in the United States of substantial quantities of medical isotopes using LEU; and (5) pending U.S. legislation that would prohibit the export of HEU for production of isotopes as soon as alternative, LEU-produced isotopes are available. Accordingly, it now appears inevitable that worldwide isotope production will be converted from reliance on HEU to LEU. The only remaining question is which producers will be the first to reliably deliver sizeable quantities of LEU-produced isotopes and thereby capture global market share from the others. (author)

  3. Developing the "120 by 20" goal for the Global FP2020 Initiative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Win; Druce, Nel; Bunting, Julia; Radloff, Scott; Koroma, Desmond; Gupta, Srishti; Siems, Brian; Kerrigan, Monica; Kress, Dan; Darmstadt, Gary L

    2014-03-01

    This report describes the purpose for developing a quantitative goal for the London Summit on Family Planning held in July 2012, the methodology behind its formulation, and the lessons learned in the process. The London Summit has evolved into the global initiative known as FP2020, and the goal has become "120 by 20," or reaching 120 million additional users of modern contraceptive methods by 2020 in the world's poorest countries. The success of FP2020 will first be evaluated on the basis of quantitative verification to determine that the "120 by 20" goal was reached. More important, however, is the extent to which the goal today serves as a global rallying cry to mobilize resources and leadership around current family planning programs, with a focus on voluntary family planning and quality of care, and with an emphasis on meeting girls' and women's unmet needs and their right to practice contraception. We hope this article provides greater transparency and understanding of the FP2020 goal, and that the global goal spurs annual monitoring of progress toward national goals in the world's poorest countries. © 2014 The Population Council, Inc.

  4. Paraquat: model for oxidant-initiated toxicity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bus, J.S.; Gibson, J.E.

    1984-04-01

    Paraquat, a quaternary ammonium bipyridyl herbicide, produces degenerative lesions in the lung after systemic administration to man and animals. The pulmonary toxicity of paraquat resembles in several ways the toxicity of several other lung toxins, including oxygen, nitrofurantoin and bleomycin. Although a definitive mechanism of toxicity of parquat has not been delineated, a cyclic single electron reduction/oxidation of the parent molecule is a critical mechanistic event. The redox cycling of paraquat has two potentially important consequences relevant to the development of toxicity: generation of activated oxygen (e.g., superoxide anion, hydrogen perioxide, hydroxyl radical) which is highly reactive to cellular macromolecules; and/or oxidation of reducing equivalents (e.g., NADPH, reduced glutathione) necessary for normal cell function. Paraquat-induced pulmonary toxicity, therefore, is a potentially useful model for evaluation of oxidant mechanisms of toxicity. Furthermore, characterization of the consequences of intracellular redox cycling of xenobiotics will no doubt provide basic information regarding the role of this phenomena in the development of chemical toxicity. 105 references, 2 figures.

  5. Evaluating surveillance indicators supporting the Global Polio Eradication Initiative, 2011-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-04-12

    The Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) was established in 1988 by the World Health Assembly to interrupt transmission of wild poliovirus (WPV); completion of this initiative was declared a programmatic emergency of public health in January 2012. Polio cases are detected through surveillance for acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) with linked stool specimens tested for polioviruses (PVs) at accredited laboratories within the Global Polio Laboratory Network (GPLN). AFP surveillance findings are supplemented by testing sewage samples (environmental surveillance) collected at selected sites. Virologic data guide where targeted immunization activities should be conducted or improved. Key performance indicators are used to 1) monitor AFP surveillance quality at national and subnational levels to identify gaps where PV transmission could occur undetected; 2) provide evidence of where PV circulation has been interrupted; and 3) allow timely detection of an outbreak. Standardized surveillance indicators allow progress to be monitored over time and compared among countries. This report presents AFP surveillance performance indicators at national and subnational levels for countries affected by polio during 2011-2012, and trends in environmental surveillance, updating previous reports. In the 19 countries with transmission of PV (WPV and/or circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus [cVDPV]) during 2011-2012, national performance indicator targets were met in 12 (63%) countries in 2011 and 13 (68%) countries in 2012. Seven countries (37%) in 2011 had ≥80% of the population living in areas meeting performance indicators, increasing to nine countries (47%) in 2012. Performance indicators for timely reporting of PV isolation and characterization were met in four of six World Health Organization (WHO) regions in 2011 and five regions in 2012. To achieve global polio eradication, efforts are needed to improve and maintain AFP surveillance and laboratory performance.

  6. Constructing a Global Learning Partnership in Physiotherapy: An Ireland–Uganda Initiative

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cliona O’Sullivan

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Background and aimThere is a strong correlation between disability and poverty and it is acknowledged that until disability issues are addressed, the goal of poverty reduction in low-income countries is unlikely to be achieved. Despite the high prevalence of disability in developing countries, there remains a significant shortage of rehabilitation professionals as highlighted by the WHO report, Human resources for Health (2006. The purpose of this project was to develop a collaborative and sustainable partnership to strengthen educational and research capacity in global health, disability, and rehabilitation between two physiotherapy schools; University College Dublin, Ireland, and Mbarara University of Science and Technology, Uganda. This article aims to describe the approach used and initial project outcomes.MethodsThis project involved a bilateral visit to both institutions by two members of staff of respective physiotherapy programs. These visits entailed stakeholder meetings, clinical site visits, and workshops to identify the priorities for the partnership and shape the collaboration going forward. Appreciative inquiry methodology was used during the workshops and the four-dimensional framework for curriculum development was used to guide analysis and underpin findings.FindingsThe key priorities identified were (i development of joint global health learning initiative, (ii to explore the possibility of postgraduate learning and research opportunities for Ugandan colleagues, and (iii to develop joint clinical placements. The rationale and context and a plan of action is described.Discussion and conclusionThe project is ambitious and in order to be sustainable, the importance of long-term interinstitutional commitment and further funding cannot be ignored. This work provides a framework for other universities and institutions wishing to undertake similar activities. Such partnerships provide rich learning opportunities for students and

  7. Constructing a Global Learning Partnership in Physiotherapy: An Ireland-Uganda Initiative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Sullivan, Cliona; Kazibwe, Herman; Whitehouse, Zillah; Blake, Catherine

    2017-01-01

    There is a strong correlation between disability and poverty and it is acknowledged that until disability issues are addressed, the goal of poverty reduction in low-income countries is unlikely to be achieved. Despite the high prevalence of disability in developing countries, there remains a significant shortage of rehabilitation professionals as highlighted by the WHO report, Human resources for Health (2006). The purpose of this project was to develop a collaborative and sustainable partnership to strengthen educational and research capacity in global health, disability, and rehabilitation between two physiotherapy schools; University College Dublin, Ireland, and Mbarara University of Science and Technology, Uganda. This article aims to describe the approach used and initial project outcomes. This project involved a bilateral visit to both institutions by two members of staff of respective physiotherapy programs. These visits entailed stakeholder meetings, clinical site visits, and workshops to identify the priorities for the partnership and shape the collaboration going forward. Appreciative inquiry methodology was used during the workshops and the four-dimensional framework for curriculum development was used to guide analysis and underpin findings. The key priorities identified were (i) development of joint global health learning initiative, (ii) to explore the possibility of postgraduate learning and research opportunities for Ugandan colleagues, and (iii) to develop joint clinical placements. The rationale and context and a plan of action is described. The project is ambitious and in order to be sustainable, the importance of long-term interinstitutional commitment and further funding cannot be ignored. This work provides a framework for other universities and institutions wishing to undertake similar activities. Such partnerships provide rich learning opportunities for students and health professionals and facilitate a deeper understanding of global health

  8. BETR Global - A geographically explicit global-scale multimedia contaminant fate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Macleod, M.; Waldow, H. von; Tay, P.; Armitage, J. M.; Wohrnschimmel, H.; Riley, W.; McKone, T. E.; Hungerbuhler, K.

    2011-04-01

    We present two new software implementations of the BETR Global multimedia contaminant fate model. The model uses steady-state or non-steady-state mass-balance calculations to describe the fate and transport of persistent organic pollutants using a desktop computer. The global environment is described using a database of long-term average monthly conditions on a 15{sup o} x 15{sup o} grid. We demonstrate BETR Global by modeling the global sources, transport, and removal of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5).

  9. ProVac Global Initiative: a vision shaped by ten years of supporting evidence-based policy decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jauregui, Barbara; Janusz, Cara Bess; Clark, Andrew D; Sinha, Anushua; Garcia, Ana Gabriela Felix; Resch, Stephen; Toscano, Cristiana M; Sanderson, Colin; Andrus, Jon Kim

    2015-05-07

    evaluated, the availability of data, and the time frame of the decision. Decision support for new vaccine introduction in low- and middle-income countries is critical to maximizing the efficiency and impact of vaccination programs. Global technical cooperation will be required. In the future, PAHO and WHO have an opportunity to expand the reach of the ProVac philosophy, models, and methods to additional regions and countries requiring real-time support. The ProVac Global Initiative is proposed as an effective mechanism to do so. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  10. Moduli stabilisation for chiral global models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cicoli, Michele; Mayrhofer, Christoph; Valandro, Roberto

    2011-10-01

    We combine moduli stabilisation and (chiral) model building in a fully consistent global set-up in Type IIB/F-theory. We consider compactifications on Calabi-Yau orientifolds which admit an explicit description in terms of toric geometry. We build globally consistent compactifications with tadpole and Freed-Witten anomaly cancellation by choosing appropriate brane set-ups and world-volume fluxes which also give rise to SU(5)- or MSSM-like chiral models. We fix all the Kaehler moduli within the Kaehler cone and the regime of validity of the 4D effective field theory. This is achieved in a way compatible with the local presence of chirality. The hidden sector generating the non-perturbative effects is placed on a del Pezzo divisor that does not have any chiral intersections with any other brane. In general, the vanishing D-term condition implies the shrinking of the rigid divisor supporting the visible sector. However, we avoid this problem by generating r< n D-term conditions on a set of n intersecting divisors. The remaining (n-r) flat directions are fixed by perturbative corrections to the Kaehler potential. We illustrate our general claims in an explicit example. We consider a K3-fibred Calabi-Yau with four Kaehler moduli, that is an hypersurface in a toric ambient space and admits a simple F-theory up-lift. We present explicit choices of brane set-ups and fluxes which lead to three different phenomenological scenarios: the first with GUT-scale strings and TeV-scale SUSY by fine-tuning the background fluxes; the second with an exponentially large value of the volume and TeV-scale SUSY without fine-tuning the background fluxes; and the third with a very anisotropic configuration that leads to TeV-scale strings and two micron-sized extra dimensions. The K3 fibration structure of the Calabi-Yau three-fold is also particularly suitable for cosmological purposes. (orig.)

  11. Moduli stabilisation for chiral global models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cicoli, Michele [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany); Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste (Italy); Mayrhofer, Christoph [Heidelberg Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Theoretische Physik; Valandro, Roberto [Hamburg Univ. (Germany). 2. Inst. fuer Theoretische Physik

    2011-10-15

    We combine moduli stabilisation and (chiral) model building in a fully consistent global set-up in Type IIB/F-theory. We consider compactifications on Calabi-Yau orientifolds which admit an explicit description in terms of toric geometry. We build globally consistent compactifications with tadpole and Freed-Witten anomaly cancellation by choosing appropriate brane set-ups and world-volume fluxes which also give rise to SU(5)- or MSSM-like chiral models. We fix all the Kaehler moduli within the Kaehler cone and the regime of validity of the 4D effective field theory. This is achieved in a way compatible with the local presence of chirality. The hidden sector generating the non-perturbative effects is placed on a del Pezzo divisor that does not have any chiral intersections with any other brane. In general, the vanishing D-term condition implies the shrinking of the rigid divisor supporting the visible sector. However, we avoid this problem by generating r

  12. Modeling of SCC initiation and propagation mechanisms in BWR environments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoffmeister, Hans, E-mail: Hans.Hoffmeister@hsu-hh.de [Institute for Failure Analysis and Failure Prevention ISSV e.V., c/o Helmut Schmidt University of the Federal Armed Forces, D-22039 Hamburg (Germany); Klein, Oliver [Institute for Failure Analysis and Failure Prevention ISSV e.V., c/o Helmut Schmidt University of the Federal Armed Forces, D-22039 Hamburg (Germany)

    2011-12-15

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We show that SSC in BWR environments includes anodic crack propagation and hydrogen assisted cracking. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Hydrogen cracking is triggered by crack tip acidification following local impurity accumulations and subsequent phase precipitations. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We calculate effects of pH, chlorides, potentials and stress on crack SCC growth rates at 288 Degree-Sign C. - Abstract: During operation of mainly BWRs' (Boiling Water Reactors) excursions from recommended water chemistries may provide favorite conditions for stress corrosion cracking (SCC). Maximum levels for chloride and sulfate ion contents for avoiding local corrosion are therefore given in respective water specifications. In a previously published deterministic 288 Degree-Sign C - corrosion model for Nickel as a main alloying element of BWR components it was demonstrated that, as a theoretically worst case, bulk water chloride levels as low as 30 ppb provide local chloride ion accumulation, dissolution of passivating nickel oxide and precipitation of nickel chlorides followed by subsequent local acidification. In an extension of the above model to SCC the following work shows that, in a first step, local anodic path corrosion with subsequent oxide breakdown, chloride salt formation and acidification at 288 Degree-Sign C would establish local cathodic reduction of accumulated hydrogen ions inside the crack tip fluid. In a second step, local hydrogen reduction charges and increasing local crack tip strains from increasing crack lengths at given global stresses are time stepwise calculated and related to experimentally determined crack critical cathodic hydrogen charges and fracture strains taken from small scale SSRT tensile tests pieces. As a result, at local hydrogen equilibrium potentials higher than those of nickel in the crack tip solution, hydrogen ion reduction initiates hydrogen crack propagation that is enhanced with

  13. Effects of Initial Symmetry on the Global Symmetry of One-Dimensional Legal Cellular Automata

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ikuko Tanaka

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available To examine the development of pattern formation from the viewpoint of symmetry, we applied a two-dimensional discrete Walsh analysis to a one-dimensional cellular automata model under two types of regular initial conditions. The amount of symmetropy of cellular automata (CA models under regular and random initial conditions corresponds to three Wolfram’s classes of CAs, identified as Classes II, III, and IV. Regular initial conditions occur in two groups. One group that makes a broken, regular pattern formation has four types of symmetry, whereas the other group that makes a higher hierarchy pattern formation has only two types. Additionally, both final pattern formations show an increased amount of symmetropy as time passes. Moreover, the final pattern formations are affected by iterations of base rules of CA models of chaos dynamical systems. The growth design formations limit possibilities: the ratio of developing final pattern formations under a regular initial condition decreases in the order of Classes III, II, and IV. This might be related to the difference in degree in reference to surrounding conditions. These findings suggest that calculations of symmetries of the structures of one-dimensional cellular automata models are useful for revealing rules of pattern generation for animal bodies.

  14. Global plastic models for computerized structural analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roche, R.; Hoffmann, A.

    1977-01-01

    Two different global models are used in the CEASEMT system for structural analysis, one for the shells analysis and the other for piping analysis (in plastic or creep field). In shell analysis the generalized stresses choosed are the membrane forces Nsub(ij) and bending (including torsion) moments Msub(ij). There is only one yield condition for a normal (to the middle surface) and no integration along the thickness is required. In piping analysis, the choice of generalized stresses is: bending moments, torsional moments, Hoop stress and tension stress. There is only a set of stresses for a cross section and non integration over the cross section area is needed. Connected strains are axis curvature, torsion, uniform strains. The definition of the yield surface is the most important item. A practical way is to use a diagonal quadratic fonction of the stress components. But the coefficients are depending of the shape of the pipe element, especially for curved segments. Indications will be given on the yield fonctions used. Some examples of applications in structural analysis are added to the text [fr

  15. Sensitivity of a Simulated Derecho Event to Model Initial Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wei

    2014-05-01

    Since 2003, the MMM division at NCAR has been experimenting cloud-permitting scale weather forecasting using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Over the years, we've tested different model physics, and tried different initial and boundary conditions. Not surprisingly, we found that the model's forecasts are more sensitive to the initial conditions than model physics. In 2012 real-time experiment, WRF-DART (Data Assimilation Research Testbed) at 15 km was employed to produce initial conditions for twice-a-day forecast at 3 km. On June 29, this forecast system captured one of the most destructive derecho event on record. In this presentation, we will examine forecast sensitivity to different model initial conditions, and try to understand the important features that may contribute to the success of the forecast.

  16. Global Information Enterprise (GIE) Modeling and Simulation (GIESIM)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bell, Paul

    2005-01-01

    ... AND S) toolkits into the Global Information Enterprise (GIE) Modeling and Simulation (GIESim) framework to create effective user analysis of candidate communications architectures and technologies...

  17. GEM1: First-year modeling and IT activities for the Global Earthquake Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, G.; Giardini, D.; Wiemer, S.

    2009-04-01

    GEM is a public-private partnership initiated by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) to build an independent standard for modeling and communicating earthquake risk worldwide. GEM is aimed at providing authoritative, open information about seismic risk and decision tools to support mitigation. GEM will also raise risk awareness and help post-disaster economic development, with the ultimate goal of reducing the toll of future earthquakes. GEM will provide a unified set of seismic hazard, risk, and loss modeling tools based on a common global IT infrastructure and consensus standards. These tools, systems, and standards will be developed in partnership with organizations around the world, with coordination by the GEM Secretariat and its Secretary General. GEM partners will develop a variety of global components, including a unified earthquake catalog, fault database, and ground motion prediction equations. To ensure broad representation and community acceptance, GEM will include local knowledge in all modeling activities, incorporate existing detailed models where possible, and independently test all resulting tools and models. When completed in five years, GEM will have a versatile, penly accessible modeling environment that can be updated as necessary, and will provide the global standard for seismic hazard, risk, and loss models to government ministers, scientists and engineers, financial institutions, and the public worldwide. GEM is now underway with key support provided by private sponsors (Munich Reinsurance Company, Zurich Financial Services, AIR Worldwide Corporation, and Willis Group Holdings); countries including Belgium, Germany, Italy, Singapore, Switzerland, and Turkey; and groups such as the European Commission. The GEM Secretariat has been selected by the OECD and will be hosted at the Eucentre at the University of Pavia in Italy; the Secretariat is now formalizing the creation of the GEM Foundation. Some of GEM's global

  18. SEP modeling based on global heliospheric models at the CCMC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mays, M. L.; Luhmann, J. G.; Odstrcil, D.; Bain, H. M.; Schwadron, N.; Gorby, M.; Li, Y.; Lee, K.; Zeitlin, C.; Jian, L. K.; Lee, C. O.; Mewaldt, R. A.; Galvin, A. B.

    2017-12-01

    Heliospheric models provide contextual information of conditions in the heliosphere, including the background solar wind conditions and shock structures, and are used as input to SEP models, providing an essential tool for understanding SEP properties. The global 3D MHD WSA-ENLIL+Cone model provides a time-dependent background heliospheric description, into which a spherical shaped hydrodynamic CME can be inserted. ENLIL simulates solar wind parameters and additionally one can extract the magnetic topologies of observer-connected magnetic field lines and all plasma and shock properties along those field lines. An accurate representation of the background solar wind is necessary for simulating transients. ENLIL simulations also drive SEP models such as the Solar Energetic Particle Model (SEPMOD) (Luhmann et al. 2007, 2010) and the Energetic Particle Radiation Environment Module (EPREM) (Schwadron et al. 2010). The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is in the process of making these SEP models available to the community and offering a system to run SEP models driven by a variety of heliospheric models available at CCMC. SEPMOD injects protons onto a sequence of observer field lines at intensities dependent on the connected shock source strength which are then integrated at the observer to approximate the proton flux. EPREM couples with MHD models such as ENLIL and computes energetic particle distributions based on the focused transport equation along a Lagrangian grid of nodes that propagate out with the solar wind. The coupled SEP models allow us to derive the longitudinal distribution of SEP profiles of different types of events throughout the heliosphere. The coupled ENLIL and SEP models allow us to derive the longitudinal distribution of SEP profiles of different types of events throughout the heliosphere. In this presentation we demonstrate several case studies of SEP event modeling at different observers based on WSA-ENLIL+Cone simulations.

  19. A new Method for the Estimation of Initial Condition Uncertainty Structures in Mesoscale Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, J. D.; Bach, L.; Hense, A.

    2012-12-01

    The estimation of fast growing error modes of a system is a key interest of ensemble data assimilation when assessing uncertainty in initial conditions. Over the last two decades three methods (and variations of these methods) have evolved for global numerical weather prediction models: ensemble Kalman filter, singular vectors and breeding of growing modes (or now ensemble transform). While the former incorporates a priori model error information and observation error estimates to determine ensemble initial conditions, the latter two techniques directly address the error structures associated with Lyapunov vectors. However, in global models these structures are mainly associated with transient global wave patterns. When assessing initial condition uncertainty in mesoscale limited area models, several problems regarding the aforementioned techniques arise: (a) additional sources of uncertainty on the smaller scales contribute to the error and (b) error structures from the global scale may quickly move through the model domain (depending on the size of the domain). To address the latter problem, perturbation structures from global models are often included in the mesoscale predictions as perturbed boundary conditions. However, the initial perturbations (when used) are often generated with a variant of an ensemble Kalman filter which does not necessarily focus on the large scale error patterns. In the framework of the European regional reanalysis project of the Hans-Ertel-Center for Weather Research we use a mesoscale model with an implemented nudging data assimilation scheme which does not support ensemble data assimilation at all. In preparation of an ensemble-based regional reanalysis and for the estimation of three-dimensional atmospheric covariance structures, we implemented a new method for the assessment of fast growing error modes for mesoscale limited area models. The so-called self-breeding is development based on the breeding of growing modes technique

  20. Globalization and Shanghai Model: A Retrospective and Prospective Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linsun Cheng

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Intended to shed light on the debate on the results of globalization and providebetter understanding of the influences of globalization upon China as well as theworld, this article traces the history of Shanghai’s economic globalization over thepast 170 years since 1843 and demonstrates the benefits and problems Shanghaireceived from (or connected to its economic globalization. Divided into threesections (Globalization, de-globalization and re-globalization of Shanghai’s economy;Manufacturing-Oriented vs. Tertiary-oriented—Shanghai’s Double PriorityStrategy of Economic Growth; Free market, state enterprises, and Shanghai’s mixedeconomy the article summarizes and analyzes several characteristics that madeShanghai a unique model in the history of globalization: In adapting and adoptinginevitable economic globalization, Shanghai created its unique model of economicdevelopment—widely embracing economic globalization; placing Shanghai’seconomy on a solid foundation of both strong modern manufacturing and strongtertiary industry (consisting of finance and insurance, real estate, transportations,post and telecommunication, wholesale and retailing; and creating a mixedeconomic structure with hybrid of private and state owned enterprises. TheShanghai model proves that globalization has been an unavoidable trend as scienceand technology have made the world “smaller” and “smaller.” Actively engaging intoeconomic globalization is the only way for Shanghai, as well as many developingcountries, to accelerate its economic growth.

  1. International institutions, global health initiatives and the challenge of sustainability: lessons from the Brazilian AIDS programme.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Loup, G; Fleury, S; Camargo, K; Larouzé, B

    2010-01-01

    The sustainability of successful public health programmes remains a challenge in low and middle income settings. These programmes are often subjected to mobilization-demobilization cycle. Indeed, political and organizational factors are of major importance to ensure this sustainability. The cooperation between the World Bank and the Brazilian AIDS programme highlights the role of international institutions and global health initiatives (GHI), not only to scale up programmes but also to guarantee their stability and sustainability, at a time when advocacy is diminishing and vertical programmes are integrated within health systems. This role is critical at the local level, particularly when economic crisis may hamper the future of public health programmes. Political and organizational evolution should be monitored and warnings should trigger interventions of GHI before the decline of these programmes.

  2. Building the Nightingale Initiative for Global Health--NIGH: can we engage and empower the public voices of nurses worldwide?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, Deva-Marie; Dossey, Barbara M; Rushton, Cynda H

    2013-10-01

    The Nightingale Initiative for Global Health (NIGH) is a major grassroots-to-global movement of "daring, caring and sharing" of nursing and others around the world inspired by the outstanding legacy of Florence Nightingale. The Nightingale Initiative envisions and emulates what Nightingale might have accomplished if she lived in the digital age and with international agencies such as the United Nations and World Health Organization. It challenges nurses everywhere to think and act both locally and globally, to raise their voices about the contribution of nursing, and to become authentic advocates, particularly in addressing the United Nations Millennium Development Goals.

  3. An assessment of interactions between global health initiatives and country health systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samb, Badara; Evans, Tim; Dybul, Mark; Atun, Rifat; Moatti, Jean-Paul; Nishtar, Sania; Wright, Anna; Celletti, Francesca; Hsu, Justine; Kim, Jim Yong; Brugha, Ruairi; Russell, Asia; Etienne, Carissa

    2009-06-20

    Since 2000, the emergence of several large disease-specific global health initiatives (GHIs) has changed the way in which international donors provide assistance for public health. Some critics have claimed that these initiatives burden health systems that are already fragile in countries with few resources, whereas others have asserted that weak health systems prevent progress in meeting disease-specific targets. So far, most of the evidence for this debate has been provided by speculation and anecdotes. We use a review and analysis of existing data, and 15 new studies that were submitted to WHO for the purpose of writing this Report to describe the complex nature of the interplay between country health systems and GHIs. We suggest that this Report provides the most detailed compilation of published and emerging evidence so far, and provides a basis for identification of the ways in which GHIs and health systems can interact to mutually reinforce their effects. On the basis of the findings, we make some general recommendations and identify a series of action points for international partners, governments, and other stakeholders that will help ensure that investments in GHIs and country health systems can fulfil their potential to produce comprehensive and lasting results in disease-specific work, and advance the general public health agenda. The target date for achievement of the health-related Millennium Development Goals is drawing close, and the economic downturn threatens to undermine the improvements in health outcomes that have been achieved in the past few years. If adjustments to the interactions between GHIs and country health systems will improve efficiency, equity, value for money, and outcomes in global public health, then these opportunities should not be missed.

  4. NASA 3D Models: Global Hawk

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The ability of the Global Hawk air vehicle to autonomously fly long distances and remain aloft for extended periods of time means that measuring, monitoring, and...

  5. The impact of global health initiatives on the health system in Angola.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craveiro, Isabel; Dussault, Gilles

    2016-01-01

    We assessed the impact of global health initiatives (GHIs) on the health care system of Angola, as a contribution to documenting how GHIs, such as the Global Fund, GAVI and PEPFAR, influence the planning and delivery of health services in low-income countries and how national systems respond. We collected the views of national and sub-national key informants through 42 semi-structured interviews between April 2009 and May 2011 (12 at the national level and 30 at the sub-national level). We used a snowball technique to identify respondents from government, donors and non-governmental organisations. GHIs stimulated the formulation of a health policy and of plans and strategies, but the country has yet to decide on its priorities for health. At the regional level, managers lack knowledge of how GHIs' function, but they assess the effects of external funds as positive as they increased training opportunities, and augment the number of workers engaged in HIV or other specific disease programmes. However, GHIs did not address the challenge of attraction and retention of qualified personnel in provinces. Since Angola is not entirely dependent on external funding, national strategic programmes and the interventions of GHIs co-habit well, in contrast to countries such as Mozambique, which heavily depend on external aid.

  6. Samdrup Jongkhar Initiative : a Model of Integrated Ecologically ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Samdrup Jongkhar Initiative : a Model of Integrated Ecologically-friendly ... which endeavors to integrate social, economic, cultural and environmental objectives. ... Brown Cloud penetrates Bhutan : ambient air quality and trans-boundary ...

  7. Modeling of laser damage initiated by surface contamination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feit, M.D.; Rubenchik, A.M.; Faux, D.R.; Riddle, R.A.; Shapiro, A.; Eder, D.C.; Penetrante, B.M.; Milam, D.; Genin, F.Y.; Kozlowski, M.R.

    1996-11-01

    The authors are engaged in a comprehensive effort to understand and model the initiation and growth of laser damage initiated by surface contaminants. This includes, for example, the initial absorption by the contaminant, heating and plasma generation, pressure and thermal loading of the transparent substrate, and subsequent shockwave propagation, 'splashing' of molten material and possible spallation, optical propagation and scattering, and treatment of material fracture. The integration use of large radiation hydrodynamics codes, optical propagation codes and material strength codes enables a comprehensive view of the damage process The following picture of surface contaminant initiated laser damage is emerging from our simulations

  8. AN INITIATIVE FOR CONSTRUCTION OF NEW-GENERATION LUNAR GLOBAL CONTROL NETWORK USING MULTI-MISSION DATA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Di

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available A lunar global control network provides geodetic datum and control points for mapping of the lunar surface. The widely used Unified Lunar Control Network 2005 (ULCN2005 was built based on a combined photogrammetric solution of Clementine images acquired in 1994 and earlier photographic data. In this research, we propose an initiative for construction of a new-generation lunar global control network using multi-mission data newly acquired in the 21st century, which have much better resolution and precision than the old data acquired in the last century. The new control network will be based on a combined photogrammetric solution of an extended global image and laser altimetry network. The five lunar laser ranging retro-reflectors, which can be identified in LROC NAC images and have cm level 3D position accuracy, will be used as absolute control points in the least squares photogrammetric adjustment. Recently, a new radio total phase ranging method has been developed and used for high-precision positioning of Chang’e-3 lander; this shall offer a new absolute control point. Systematic methods and key techniques will be developed or enhanced, including rigorous and generic geometric modeling of orbital images, multi-scale feature extraction and matching among heterogeneous multi-mission remote sensing data, optimal selection of images at areas of multiple image coverages, and large-scale adjustment computation, etc. Based on the high-resolution new datasets and developed new techniques, the new generation of global control network is expected to have much higher accuracy and point density than the ULCN2005.

  9. Modeling of reservoir operation in UNH global hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiklomanov, Alexander; Prusevich, Alexander; Frolking, Steve; Glidden, Stanley; Lammers, Richard; Wisser, Dominik

    2015-04-01

    Climate is changing and river flow is an integrated characteristic reflecting numerous environmental processes and their changes aggregated over large areas. Anthropogenic impacts on the river flow, however, can significantly exceed the changes associated with climate variability. Besides of irrigation, reservoirs and dams are one of major anthropogenic factor affecting streamflow. They distort hydrological regime of many rivers by trapping of freshwater runoff, modifying timing of river discharge and increasing the evaporation rate. Thus, reservoirs is an integral part of the global hydrological system and their impacts on rivers have to be taken into account for better quantification and understanding of hydrological changes. We developed a new technique, which was incorporated into WBM-TrANS model (Water Balance Model-Transport from Anthropogenic and Natural Systems) to simulate river routing through large reservoirs and natural lakes based on information available from freely accessible databases such as GRanD (the Global Reservoir and Dam database) or NID (National Inventory of Dams for US). Different formulations were applied for unregulated spillway dams and lakes, and for 4 types of regulated reservoirs, which were subdivided based on main purpose including generic (multipurpose), hydropower generation, irrigation and water supply, and flood control. We also incorporated rules for reservoir fill up and draining at the times of construction and decommission based on available data. The model were tested for many reservoirs of different size and types located in various climatic conditions using several gridded meteorological data sets as model input and observed daily and monthly discharge data from GRDC (Global Runoff Data Center), USGS Water Data (US Geological Survey), and UNH archives. The best results with Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient in the range of 0.5-0.9 were obtained for temperate zone of Northern Hemisphere where most of large

  10. The effects of levosimendan on brain metabolism during initial recovery from global transient ischaemia/hypoxia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roehl Anna B

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Backround Neuroprotective strategies after cardiopulmonary resuscitation are currently the focus of experimental and clinical research. Levosimendan has been proposed as a promising drug candidate because of its cardioprotective properties, improved haemodynamic effects in vivo and reduced traumatic brain injury in vitro. The effects of levosimendan on brain metabolism during and after ischaemia/hypoxia are unknown. Methods Transient cerebral ischaemia/hypoxia was induced in 30 male Wistar rats by bilateral common carotid artery clamping for 15 min and concomitant ventilation with 6% O2 during general anaesthesia with urethane. After 10 min of global ischaemia/hypoxia, the rats were treated with an i.v. bolus of 24 μg kg-1 levosimendan followed by a continuous infusion of 0.2 μg kg-1 min-1. The changes in the energy-related metabolites lactate, the lactate/pyruvate ratio, glucose and glutamate were monitored by microdialysis. In addition, the effects on global haemodynamics, cerebral perfusion and autoregulation, oedema and expression of proinflammatory genes in the neocortex were assessed. Results Levosimendan reduced blood pressure during initial reperfusion (72 ± 14 vs. 109 ± 2 mmHg, p = 0.03 and delayed flow maximum by 5 minutes (p = 0.002. Whereas no effects on time course of lactate, glucose, pyruvate and glutamate concentrations in the dialysate could be observed, the lactate/pyruvate ratio during initial reperfusion (144 ± 31 vs. 77 ± 8, p = 0.017 and the glutamate release during 90 minutes of reperfusion (75 ± 19 vs. 24 ± 28 μmol·L-1 were higher in the levosimendan group. The increased expression of IL-6, IL-1ß TNFα and ICAM-1, extend of cerebral edema and cerebral autoregulation was not influenced by levosimendan. Conclusion Although levosimendan has neuroprotective actions in vitro and on the spinal cord in vivo and has been shown to cross the blood–brain barrier, the present

  11. What can'(t) we do with global flood risk models?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, P.; Jongman, B.; Salamon, P.; Simpson, A.; Bates, P. D.; de Groeve, T.; Muis, S.; Coughlan, E.; Rudari, R.; Trigg, M. A.; Winsemius, H.

    2015-12-01

    Global flood risk models are now a reality. Initially, their development was driven by a demand from users for first-order global assessments to identify risk hotspots. Relentless upward trends in flood damage over the last decade have enhanced interest in such assessments. The adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage Associated with Climate Change Impacts have made these efforts even more essential. As a result, global flood risk models are being used more and more in practice, by an increasingly large number of practitioners and decision-makers. However, they clearly have their limits compared to local models. To address these issues, a team of scientists and practitioners recently came together at the Global Flood Partnership meeting to critically assess the question 'What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?'. The results of this dialogue (Ward et al., 2013) will be presented, opening a discussion on similar broader initiatives at the science-policy interface in other natural hazards. In this contribution, examples are provided of successful applications of global flood risk models in practice (for example together with the World Bank, Red Cross, and UNISDR), and limitations and gaps between user 'wish-lists' and model capabilities are discussed. Finally, a research agenda is presented for addressing these limitations and reducing the gaps. Ward, P.J. et al., 2015. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2742.

  12. Initialization and Predictability of a Coupled ENSO Forecast Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Dake; Zebiak, Stephen E.; Cane, Mark A.; Busalacchi, Antonio J.

    1997-01-01

    The skill of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model in predicting ENSO has recently been improved using a new initialization procedure in which initial conditions are obtained from the coupled model, nudged toward observations of wind stress. The previous procedure involved direct insertion of wind stress observations, ignoring model feedback from ocean to atmosphere. The success of the new scheme is attributed to its explicit consideration of ocean-atmosphere coupling and the associated reduction of "initialization shock" and random noise. The so-called spring predictability barrier is eliminated, suggesting that such a barrier is not intrinsic to the real climate system. Initial attempts to generalize the nudging procedure to include SST were not successful; possible explanations are offered. In all experiments forecast skill is found to be much higher for the 1980s than for the 1970s and 1990s, suggesting decadal variations in predictability.

  13. Architecture design in global and model-centric software development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heijstek, Werner

    2012-01-01

    This doctoral dissertation describes a series of empirical investigations into representation, dissemination and coordination of software architecture design in the context of global software development. A particular focus is placed on model-centric and model-driven software development.

  14. Simplifiying global biogeochemistry models to evaluate methane emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerber, S.; Alonso-Contes, C.

    2017-12-01

    Process-based models are important tools to quantify wetland methane emissions, particularly also under climate change scenarios, evaluating these models is often cumbersome as they are embedded in larger land-surface models where fluctuating water table and the carbon cycle (including new readily decomposable plant material) are predicted variables. Here, we build on these large scale models but instead of modeling water table and plant productivity we provide values as boundary conditions. In contrast, aerobic and anaerobic decomposition, as well as soil column transport of oxygen and methane are predicted by the model. Because of these simplifications, the model has the potential to be more readily adaptable to the analysis of field-scale data. Here we determine the sensitivity of the model to specific setups, parameter choices, and to boundary conditions in order to determine set-up needs and inform what critical auxiliary variables need to be measured in order to better predict field-scale methane emissions from wetland soils. To that end we performed a global sensitivity analysis that also considers non-linear interactions between processes. The global sensitivity analysis revealed, not surprisingly, that water table dynamics (both mean level and amplitude of fluctuations), and the rate of the carbon cycle (i.e. net primary productivity) are critical determinants of methane emissions. The depth-scale where most of the potential decomposition occurs also affects methane emissions. Different transport mechanisms are compensating each other to some degree: If plant conduits are constrained, methane emissions by diffusive flux and ebullition compensate to some degree, however annual emissions are higher when plants help to bypass methanotrophs in temporally unsaturated upper layers. Finally, while oxygen consumption by plant roots help creating anoxic conditions it has little effect on overall methane emission. Our initial sensitivity analysis helps guiding

  15. Validation Test Report for the 1/8 deg Global Navy Coastal Ocean Model Nowcast/Forecast System

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Barron, Charlie N; Kara, A. B; Rhodes, Robert C; Rowley, Clark; Smedstad, Lucy F

    2007-01-01

    .... Global NCOM supports predictions of ocean currents, temperatures, salinity, sea surface height, and sound speed both directly and by providing initial and boundary conditions for higher-resolution nested ocean models...

  16. China's International Education Initiatives and View of Its Role in Global Governance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Sharon X.

    2012-01-01

    China is becoming an increasingly important actor in global governance. This paper contends that China participates by promoting its own global governance concepts on the one hand and by complying with the established global norms on the other. The paper introduces several key global governance concepts of the Chinese government and argues that…

  17. Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the twenty-first century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groisman, Pavel; Shugart, Herman; Kicklighter, David; Henebry, Geoffrey; Tchebakova, Nadezhda; Maksyutov, Shamil; Monier, Erwan; Gutman, Garik; Gulev, Sergey; Qi, Jiaguo; Prishchepov, Alexander; Kukavskaya, Elena; Porfiriev, Boris; Shiklomanov, Alexander; Loboda, Tatiana; Shiklomanov, Nikolay; Nghiem, Son; Bergen, Kathleen; Albrechtová, Jana; Chen, Jiquan; Shahgedanova, Maria; Shvidenko, Anatoly; Speranskaya, Nina; Soja, Amber; de Beurs, Kirsten; Bulygina, Olga; McCarty, Jessica; Zhuang, Qianlai; Zolina, Olga

    2017-12-01

    During the past several decades, the Earth system has changed significantly, especially across Northern Eurasia. Changes in the socio-economic conditions of the larger countries in the region have also resulted in a variety of regional environmental changes that can have global consequences. The Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI) has been designed as an essential continuation of the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), which was launched in 2004. NEESPI sought to elucidate all aspects of ongoing environmental change, to inform societies and, thus, to better prepare societies for future developments. A key principle of NEFI is that these developments must now be secured through science-based strategies co-designed with regional decision-makers to lead their societies to prosperity in the face of environmental and institutional challenges. NEESPI scientific research, data, and models have created a solid knowledge base to support the NEFI program. This paper presents the NEFI research vision consensus based on that knowledge. It provides the reader with samples of recent accomplishments in regional studies and formulates new NEFI science questions. To address these questions, nine research foci are identified and their selections are briefly justified. These foci include warming of the Arctic; changing frequency, pattern, and intensity of extreme and inclement environmental conditions; retreat of the cryosphere; changes in terrestrial water cycles; changes in the biosphere; pressures on land use; changes in infrastructure; societal actions in response to environmental change; and quantification of Northern Eurasia's role in the global Earth system. Powerful feedbacks between the Earth and human systems in Northern Eurasia (e.g., mega-fires, droughts, depletion of the cryosphere essential for water supply, retreat of sea ice) result from past and current human activities (e.g., large-scale water withdrawals, land use, and governance

  18. Dynamic crack initiation toughness : experiments and peridynamic modeling.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Foster, John T.

    2009-10-01

    This is a dissertation on research conducted studying the dynamic crack initiation toughness of a 4340 steel. Researchers have been conducting experimental testing of dynamic crack initiation toughness, K{sub Ic}, for many years, using many experimental techniques with vastly different trends in the results when reporting K{sub Ic} as a function of loading rate. The dissertation describes a novel experimental technique for measuring K{sub Ic} in metals using the Kolsky bar. The method borrows from improvements made in recent years in traditional Kolsky bar testing by using pulse shaping techniques to ensure a constant loading rate applied to the sample before crack initiation. Dynamic crack initiation measurements were reported on a 4340 steel at two different loading rates. The steel was shown to exhibit a rate dependence, with the recorded values of K{sub Ic} being much higher at the higher loading rate. Using the knowledge of this rate dependence as a motivation in attempting to model the fracture events, a viscoplastic constitutive model was implemented into a peridynamic computational mechanics code. Peridynamics is a newly developed theory in solid mechanics that replaces the classical partial differential equations of motion with integral-differential equations which do not require the existence of spatial derivatives in the displacement field. This allows for the straightforward modeling of unguided crack initiation and growth. To date, peridynamic implementations have used severely restricted constitutive models. This research represents the first implementation of a complex material model and its validation. After showing results comparing deformations to experimental Taylor anvil impact for the viscoplastic material model, a novel failure criterion is introduced to model the dynamic crack initiation toughness experiments. The failure model is based on an energy criterion and uses the K{sub Ic} values recorded experimentally as an input. The failure model

  19. Modeling the Global Workplace Using Emerging Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorazio, Patricia; Hickok, Corey

    2008-01-01

    The Fall 2006 term of COM495, Senior Practicum in Communication, offered communication and information design students the privilege of taking part in a transatlantic intercultural virtual project. To emulate real world experience in today's global workplace, these students researched and completed a business communication project with German…

  20. Modelling global container freight transport demand

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tavasszy, L.A.; Ivanova, O.; Halim, R.A.

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this chapter is to discuss methods and techniques for a quantitative and descriptive analysis of future container transport demand at a global level. Information on future container transport flows is useful for various purposes. It is instrumental for the assessment of returns of

  1. Modelling stratospheric chemistry in a global three-dimensional chemical transport model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rummukainen, M [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Sodankylae (Finland). Sodankylae Observatory

    1996-12-31

    Numerical modelling of atmospheric chemistry aims to increase the understanding of the characteristics, the behavior and the evolution of atmospheric composition. These topics are of utmost importance in the study of climate change. The multitude of gases and particulates making up the atmosphere and the complicated interactions between them affect radiation transfer, atmospheric dynamics, and the impacts of anthropogenic and natural emissions. Chemical processes are fundamental factors in global warming, ozone depletion and atmospheric pollution problems in general. Much of the prevailing work on modelling stratospheric chemistry has so far been done with 1- and 2-dimensional models. Carrying an extensive chemistry parameterisation in a model with high spatial and temporal resolution is computationally heavy. Today, computers are becoming powerful enough to allow going over to 3-dimensional models. In order to concentrate on the chemistry, many Chemical Transport Models (CTM) are still run off-line, i.e. with precalculated and archived meteorology and radiation. In chemistry simulations, the archived values drive the model forward in time, without interacting with the chemical evolution. This is an approach that has been adopted in stratospheric chemistry modelling studies at the Finnish Meteorological Institute. In collaboration with the University of Oslo, a development project was initiated in 1993 to prepare a stratospheric chemistry parameterisation, fit for global 3-dimensional modelling. This article presents the parameterisation approach. Selected results are shown from basic photochemical simulations

  2. Modelling stratospheric chemistry in a global three-dimensional chemical transport model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rummukainen, M. [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Sodankylae (Finland). Sodankylae Observatory

    1995-12-31

    Numerical modelling of atmospheric chemistry aims to increase the understanding of the characteristics, the behavior and the evolution of atmospheric composition. These topics are of utmost importance in the study of climate change. The multitude of gases and particulates making up the atmosphere and the complicated interactions between them affect radiation transfer, atmospheric dynamics, and the impacts of anthropogenic and natural emissions. Chemical processes are fundamental factors in global warming, ozone depletion and atmospheric pollution problems in general. Much of the prevailing work on modelling stratospheric chemistry has so far been done with 1- and 2-dimensional models. Carrying an extensive chemistry parameterisation in a model with high spatial and temporal resolution is computationally heavy. Today, computers are becoming powerful enough to allow going over to 3-dimensional models. In order to concentrate on the chemistry, many Chemical Transport Models (CTM) are still run off-line, i.e. with precalculated and archived meteorology and radiation. In chemistry simulations, the archived values drive the model forward in time, without interacting with the chemical evolution. This is an approach that has been adopted in stratospheric chemistry modelling studies at the Finnish Meteorological Institute. In collaboration with the University of Oslo, a development project was initiated in 1993 to prepare a stratospheric chemistry parameterisation, fit for global 3-dimensional modelling. This article presents the parameterisation approach. Selected results are shown from basic photochemical simulations

  3. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission driven Global Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D.

    2012-09-01

    We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission driven rather than concentration driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a Global Climate Model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration driven simulations (with 10-90 percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario up to 3.9 K for the high end business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 degrees (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration driven experiments) on the timescale that different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration pathways used to drive GCM ensembles lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legecy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in concentration driven projections. Our ensemble of emission driven simulations span the global temperature response of other multi-model frameworks except at the low end, where combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to responses outside our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon

  4. USING GEM - GLOBAL ECONOMIC MODEL IN ACHIEVING A GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECAST

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camelia Madalina Orac

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The global economic development model has proved to be insufficiently reliable under the new economic crisis. As a result, the entire theoretical construction about the global economy needs rethinking and reorientation. In this context, it is quite clear that only through effective use of specific techniques and tools of economic-mathematical modeling, statistics, regional analysis and economic forecasting it is possible to obtain an overview of the future economy.

  5. Living with risk. A global review of disaster reduction initiatives. Preliminary version

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    In recent years the world has witnessed an interminable succession of disasters - floods, storms, earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions and wildfires that have claimed many thousands of lives, caused material losses in the tens of billions of dollars, and inflicted a terrible toll on developing countries in particular, where disasters divert attention and resources needed desperately to escape poverty. Communities will always face natural hazards, but today's disasters are often generated by, or at least exacerbated by, human activities. At the most dramatic level, human activities are changing the natural balance of the earth, interfering as never before with the atmosphere, the oceans, the polar ice caps, the forest cover and the natural pillars that make our world a livable home. But we are also putting ourselves in harm's way in less visible ways. At no time in human history have so many people lived in cities clustered around seismically active areas. Destitution and demographic pressure have led more people than ever before to live in flood plains or in areas prone to landslides. Poor land-use planning; environmental mismanagement; and a lack of regulatory mechanisms both increase the risk and exacerbate the effects of disasters. Living with risk: a global review of disaster reduction is the first comprehensive effort by the United Nations system to take stock of disaster reduction initiatives throughout the world. Coordinated by the secretariat of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR), the report discusses current disaster trends, assesses policies aimed at mitigating the impact of disasters, and offers examples of successful initiatives. It also recommends that risk reduction be integrated into sustainable development at all levels - global, national and local. Most of all, Living with risk shows that we are far from helpless in the face of natural hazards. Early warning and risk reduction measures have been important factors in

  6. Official ERS technical standards: Global Lung Function Initiative reference values for the carbon monoxide transfer factor for Caucasians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanojevic, Sanja; Graham, Brian L; Cooper, Brendan G; Thompson, Bruce R; Carter, Kim W; Francis, Richard W; Hall, Graham L

    2017-09-01

    There are numerous reference equations available for the single-breath transfer factor of the lung for carbon monoxide ( T  LCO ); however, it is not always clear which reference set should be used in clinical practice. The aim of the study was to develop the Global Lung Function Initiative (GLI) all-age reference values for T  LCO Data from 19 centres in 14 countries were collected to define T  LCO reference values. Similar to the GLI spirometry project, reference values were derived using the LMS (lambda, mu, sigma) method and the GAMLSS (generalised additive models for location, scale and shape) programme in R.12 660 T  LCO measurements from asymptomatic, lifetime nonsmokers were submitted; 85% of the submitted data were from Caucasians. All data were uncorrected for haemoglobin concentration. Following adjustments for elevation above sea level, gas concentration and assumptions used for calculating the anatomic dead space volume, there was a high degree of overlap between the datasets. Reference values for Caucasians aged 5-85 years were derived for T  LCO , transfer coefficient of the lung for carbon monoxide and alveolar volume.This is the largest collection of normative T  LCO data, and the first global reference values available for T  LCO . Copyright ©ERS 2017.

  7. Global and Regional Ecosystem Modeling: Databases of Model Drivers and Validation Measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olson, R.J.

    2002-03-19

    Understanding global-scale ecosystem responses to changing environmental conditions is important both as a scientific question and as the basis for making policy decisions. The confidence in regional models depends on how well the field data used to develop the model represent the region of interest, how well the environmental model driving variables (e.g., vegetation type, climate, and soils associated with a site used to parameterize ecosystem models) represent the region of interest, and how well regional model predictions agree with observed data for the region. To assess the accuracy of global model forecasts of terrestrial carbon cycling, two Ecosystem Model-Data Intercomparison (EMDI) workshops were held (December 1999 and April 2001). The workshops included 17 biogeochemical, satellite-driven, detailed process, and dynamic vegetation global model types. The approach was to run regional or global versions of the models for sites with net primary productivity (NPP) measurements (i.e., not fine-tuned for specific site conditions) and analyze the model-data differences. Extensive worldwide NPP data were assembled with model driver data, including vegetation, climate, and soils data, to perform the intercomparison. This report describes the compilation of NPP estimates for 2,523 sites and 5,164 0.5{sup o}-grid cells under the Global Primary Production Data Initiative (GPPDI) and the results of the EMDI review and outlier analysis that produced a refined set of NPP estimates and model driver data. The EMDI process resulted in 81 Class A sites, 933 Class B sites, and 3,855 Class C cells derived from the original synthesis of NPP measurements and associated driver data. Class A sites represent well-documented study sites that have complete aboveground and below ground NPP measurements. Class B sites represent more numerous ''extensive'' sites with less documentation and site-specific information available. Class C cells represent estimates of

  8. The global polio eradication initiative Stop Transmission of Polio (STOP) program - 1999-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-21

    In 1988, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) was established through a partnership between the World Health Organization (WHO), Rotary International, CDC, and the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF). By 2012, the annual incidence of polio had decreased by >99%, compared with 1988, and the number of countries in which wild poliovirus (WPV) circulation has never been interrupted was reduced to three: Afghanistan, Nigeria, and Pakistan. However, because of the persistence of endemic WPV transmission and recurring outbreaks in polio-free countries after the original polio eradication target date of 2000, the World Health Assembly in 2012 declared the completion of polio eradication a programmatic emergency. A key component of GPEI is the Stop Transmission of Polio (STOP) program, which was developed and initiated by CDC with WHO in 1999 to mobilize additional human resources and technical assistance for countries affected by WPV transmission. During 1999-2013, 1,563 volunteers were identified, trained, and deployed for 2,221 assignments in 69 countries. The number of volunteers increased from 90-120 per year during 1999-2011 to 287 in 2012 and 378 in 2013, and the number of volunteer person-months in the field per year increased from 273 in 1999 to 1,456 in 2012. The STOP program has aided GPEI by strengthening the capacity of country-level immunization programs and by allowing a large cohort of volunteers to gain valuable field experience that prepares them well for subsequent work as staff members of WHO, UNICEF, and other public health agencies.

  9. Salt Reduction Initiatives around the World - A Systematic Review of Progress towards the Global Target.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trieu, Kathy; Neal, Bruce; Hawkes, Corinna; Dunford, Elizabeth; Campbell, Norm; Rodriguez-Fernandez, Rodrigo; Legetic, Branka; McLaren, Lindsay; Barberio, Amanda; Webster, Jacqui

    2015-01-01

    To quantify progress with the initiation of salt reduction strategies around the world in the context of the global target to reduce population salt intake by 30% by 2025. A systematic review of the published and grey literature was supplemented by questionnaires sent to country program leaders. Core characteristics of strategies were extracted and categorised according to a pre-defined framework. A total of 75 countries now have a national salt reduction strategy, more than double the number reported in a similar review done in 2010. The majority of programs are multifaceted and include industry engagement to reformulate products (n = 61), establishment of sodium content targets for foods (39), consumer education (71), front-of-pack labelling schemes (31), taxation on high-salt foods (3) and interventions in public institutions (54). Legislative action related to salt reduction such as mandatory targets, front of pack labelling, food procurement policies and taxation have been implemented in 33 countries. 12 countries have reported reductions in population salt intake, 19 reduced salt content in foods and 6 improvements in consumer knowledge, attitudes or behaviours relating to salt. The large and increasing number of countries with salt reduction strategies in place is encouraging although activity remains limited in low- and middle-income regions. The absence of a consistent approach to implementation highlights uncertainty about the elements most important to success. Rigorous evaluation of ongoing programs and initiation of salt reduction programs, particularly in low- and middle- income countries, will be vital to achieving the targeted 30% reduction in salt intake.

  10. Salt Reduction Initiatives around the World - A Systematic Review of Progress towards the Global Target.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kathy Trieu

    Full Text Available To quantify progress with the initiation of salt reduction strategies around the world in the context of the global target to reduce population salt intake by 30% by 2025.A systematic review of the published and grey literature was supplemented by questionnaires sent to country program leaders. Core characteristics of strategies were extracted and categorised according to a pre-defined framework.A total of 75 countries now have a national salt reduction strategy, more than double the number reported in a similar review done in 2010. The majority of programs are multifaceted and include industry engagement to reformulate products (n = 61, establishment of sodium content targets for foods (39, consumer education (71, front-of-pack labelling schemes (31, taxation on high-salt foods (3 and interventions in public institutions (54. Legislative action related to salt reduction such as mandatory targets, front of pack labelling, food procurement policies and taxation have been implemented in 33 countries. 12 countries have reported reductions in population salt intake, 19 reduced salt content in foods and 6 improvements in consumer knowledge, attitudes or behaviours relating to salt.The large and increasing number of countries with salt reduction strategies in place is encouraging although activity remains limited in low- and middle-income regions. The absence of a consistent approach to implementation highlights uncertainty about the elements most important to success. Rigorous evaluation of ongoing programs and initiation of salt reduction programs, particularly in low- and middle- income countries, will be vital to achieving the targeted 30% reduction in salt intake.

  11. Human Cancer Models Initiative | Office of Cancer Genomics

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Human Cancer Models Initiative (HCMI) is an international consortium that is generating novel human tumor-derived culture models, which are annotated with genomic and clinical data. In an effort to advance cancer research and more fully understand how in vitro findings are related to clinical biology, HCMI-developed models and related data will be available as a community resource for cancer research.

  12. A global, multi-disciplinary, multi-sectorial initiative to combat leptospirosis: Global Leptospirosis Environmental Action Network (GLEAN).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durski, Kara N; Jancloes, Michel; Chowdhary, Tej; Bertherat, Eric

    2014-06-05

    Leptospirosis has emerged as a major public health problem in both animals and humans. The true burden of this epidemic and endemic disease is likely to be grossly under-estimated due to the non-specific clinical presentations of the disease and the difficulty of laboratory confirmation. The complexity that surrounds the transmission dynamics, particularly in epidemic situations, requires a coordinated, multi-disciplinary effort. Therefore, the Global Leptospirosis Environmental Action Network (GLEAN) was developed to improve global and local strategies of how to predict, prevent, detect, and intervene in leptospirosis outbreaks in order to prevent and control leptospirosis in high-risk populations.

  13. Global spatiotemporal distribution of soil respiration modeled using a global database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashimoto, S.; Carvalhais, N.; Ito, A.; Migliavacca, M.; Nishina, K.; Reichstein, M.

    2015-07-01

    The flux of carbon dioxide from the soil to the atmosphere (soil respiration) is one of the major fluxes in the global carbon cycle. At present, the accumulated field observation data cover a wide range of geographical locations and climate conditions. However, there are still large uncertainties in the magnitude and spatiotemporal variation of global soil respiration. Using a global soil respiration data set, we developed a climate-driven model of soil respiration by modifying and updating Raich's model, and the global spatiotemporal distribution of soil respiration was examined using this model. The model was applied at a spatial resolution of 0.5°and a monthly time step. Soil respiration was divided into the heterotrophic and autotrophic components of respiration using an empirical model. The estimated mean annual global soil respiration was 91 Pg C yr-1 (between 1965 and 2012; Monte Carlo 95 % confidence interval: 87-95 Pg C yr-1) and increased at the rate of 0.09 Pg C yr-2. The contribution of soil respiration from boreal regions to the total increase in global soil respiration was on the same order of magnitude as that of tropical and temperate regions, despite a lower absolute magnitude of soil respiration in boreal regions. The estimated annual global heterotrophic respiration and global autotrophic respiration were 51 and 40 Pg C yr-1, respectively. The global soil respiration responded to the increase in air temperature at the rate of 3.3 Pg C yr-1 °C-1, and Q10 = 1.4. Our study scaled up observed soil respiration values from field measurements to estimate global soil respiration and provide a data-oriented estimate of global soil respiration. The estimates are based on a semi-empirical model parameterized with over one thousand data points. Our analysis indicates that the climate controls on soil respiration may translate into an increasing trend in global soil respiration and our analysis emphasizes the relevance of the soil carbon flux from soil to

  14. New Temperature-based Models for Predicting Global Solar Radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hassan, Gasser E.; Youssef, M. Elsayed; Mohamed, Zahraa E.; Ali, Mohamed A.; Hanafy, Ahmed A.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • New temperature-based models for estimating solar radiation are investigated. • The models are validated against 20-years measured data of global solar radiation. • The new temperature-based model shows the best performance for coastal sites. • The new temperature-based model is more accurate than the sunshine-based models. • The new model is highly applicable with weather temperature forecast techniques. - Abstract: This study presents new ambient-temperature-based models for estimating global solar radiation as alternatives to the widely used sunshine-based models owing to the unavailability of sunshine data at all locations around the world. Seventeen new temperature-based models are established, validated and compared with other three models proposed in the literature (the Annandale, Allen and Goodin models) to estimate the monthly average daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface. These models are developed using a 20-year measured dataset of global solar radiation for the case study location (Lat. 30°51′N and long. 29°34′E), and then, the general formulae of the newly suggested models are examined for ten different locations around Egypt. Moreover, the local formulae for the models are established and validated for two coastal locations where the general formulae give inaccurate predictions. Mostly common statistical errors are utilized to evaluate the performance of these models and identify the most accurate model. The obtained results show that the local formula for the most accurate new model provides good predictions for global solar radiation at different locations, especially at coastal sites. Moreover, the local and general formulas of the most accurate temperature-based model also perform better than the two most accurate sunshine-based models from the literature. The quick and accurate estimations of the global solar radiation using this approach can be employed in the design and evaluation of performance for

  15. Evaluation of global climate models for Indian monsoon climatology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kodra, Evan; Ganguly, Auroop R; Ghosh, Subimal

    2012-01-01

    The viability of global climate models for forecasting the Indian monsoon is explored. Evaluation and intercomparison of model skills are employed to assess the reliability of individual models and to guide model selection strategies. Two dominant and unique patterns of Indian monsoon climatology are trends in maximum temperature and periodicity in total rainfall observed after 30 yr averaging over India. An examination of seven models and their ensembles reveals that no single model or model selection strategy outperforms the rest. The single-best model for the periodicity of Indian monsoon rainfall is the only model that captures a low-frequency natural climate oscillator thought to dictate the periodicity. The trend in maximum temperature, which most models are thought to handle relatively better, is best captured through a multimodel average compared to individual models. The results suggest a need to carefully evaluate individual models and model combinations, in addition to physical drivers where possible, for regional projections from global climate models. (letter)

  16. On the effectiveness of private transnational governance regimes - evaluating corporate sustainability reporting according to the Global Reporting Initiative

    OpenAIRE

    Barkemeyer, Ralf; Preuss, Lutz; Lee, Lindsay

    2015-01-01

    The increasing involvement of multinational enterprises (MNEs) in global governance has been both applauded for its potential to make governance more effective and criticized for lacking democratic legitimization. Hence we investigate the effectiveness of one transnational governance regime, corporate sustainability reporting according to the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI). We found that the GRI has been successful in terms of output effectiveness by promoting the dissemination of sustaina...

  17. Global Threat Reduction Initiative Fuel Thermo-Physical Characterization Project: Sample Management Plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Casella, Amanda J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Pereira, Mario M. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Steen, Franciska H. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2013-01-01

    This sample management plan provides guidelines for sectioning, preparation, acceptance criteria, analytical path, and end-of-life disposal for the fuel element segments utilized in the Global Threat Reduction Initiative (GTRI), Fuel Thermo-Physical Characterization Project. The Fuel Thermo-Physical Characterization Project is tasked with analysis of irradiated Low Enriched Uranium (LEU) Molybdenum (U-Mo) fuel element samples to support the GTRI conversion program. Sample analysis may include optical microscopy (OM), scanning electron microscopy (SEM) fuel-surface interface analysis, gas pycnometry (density) measurements, laser flash analysis (LFA), differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), thermogravimetry and differential thermal analysis with mass spectroscopy (TG /DTA-MS), Inductively Coupled Plasma Spectrophotometry (ICP), alpha spectroscopy, and Thermal Ionization Mass Spectroscopy (TIMS). The project will utilize existing Radiochemical Processing Laboratory (RPL) operating, technical, and administrative procedures for sample receipt, processing, and analyses. Test instructions (TIs), which are documents used to provide specific details regarding the implementation of an existing RPL approved technical or operational procedure, will also be used to communicate to staff project specific parameters requested by the Principal Investigator (PI). TIs will be developed, reviewed, and issued in accordance with the latest revision of the RPL-PLN-700, RPL Operations Plan. Additionally, the PI must approve all project test instructions and red-line changes to test instructions.

  18. Global Threat Reduction Initiative International Partners' Conference. Summary of the proceedings and findings of the conference

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    The Global Threat Reduction Initiative (GTRI) International Partners' Conference took place in Vienna, Austria, from September 18-19, 2004. More than 590 representatives from 100 International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Member States attended the GTRI International Partners' Conference on September 18-19, 2004, in Vienna, Austria. Representatives from ten non-governmental and international organizations were also present during the conference. The Governments of the United States and the Russian Federation co-sponsored the International Partners Conference, with support from the International Atomic Energy Agency. The purpose of the International Partners' Conference was to build and broaden international support for efforts by national authorities to identify, secure, recover, and/or facilitate the disposition of high-risk nuclear and radioactive materials that pose a potential threat to the international community. One of the significant outcomes of the International Partners Conference was reaching agreement on the Findings of the Conference (enclosed in this document) by participating Member States that outlined a broadly shared opinion of participating Member States on efforts to reduce the potential threat posed by vulnerable, unsecured nuclear and other radioactive material. It is hoped that this document can be used as a framework to consolidate, expand, and accelerate domestic, regional, and IAEA programs that address unsecured vulnerable nuclear and radioactive materials, as deemed necessary by Member States. As a first step, participating members states urged the international community to note additional opportunities to further build support for activities related to GTRI

  19. The Global Opioid Policy Initiative: a wealth of information, but what is next?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scholten, Willem

    2014-03-01

    Recently, the outcomes were published of the Global Opioid Policy Initiative, evaluating the availability, cost of opioid medicines and the regulatory barriers that are possibly impeding access for the management of cancer pain in developing countries. Other studies have shown that the vast majority of the world population has no access to opioid analgesics. This study shows by country which opioid medicines are available, what they cost to the patient, and investigates the presence of barriers for access to these medicines. Data from the project will be an important resource for those who advocate for improved access to opioid analgesics. Yet, like so often, many more aspects of inadequate opioid analgesic consumption require exploration and reporting, including legislative barriers. The last publication on the project is a "What's next?" that is over focusing on palliative care, forgetting that outside palliative care is also a huge need for opioid analgesics in moderate and severe pain. While promoting access to palliative care and pain management, their recognition as a human right by UN bodies would be of great help. Moreover, WHO's Access to Controlled Medicines Programme, could be an important programme to support the countries in making these improvements.

  20. Meningococcal disease in the Middle East and Africa: Findings and updates from the Global Meningococcal Initiative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borrow, Ray; Caugant, Dominique A; Ceyhan, Mehmet; Christensen, Hannah; Dinleyici, Ener Cagri; Findlow, Jamie; Glennie, Linda; Von Gottberg, Anne; Kechrid, Amel; Vázquez Moreno, Julio; Razki, Aziza; Smith, Vincent; Taha, Muhamed-Kheir; Tali-Maamar, Hassiba; Zerouali, Khalid

    2017-07-01

    The Global Meningococcal Initiative (GMI) has recently considered current issues in Middle Eastern and African countries, and produced two recommendations: (i) that vaccination of attendees should be considered for some types of mass-gathering events, as some countries mandate for the Hajj, and (ii) vaccination of people with human immunodeficiency virus should be used routinely, because of increased meningococcal disease (MD) risk. Differences exist between Middle Eastern and African countries regarding case and syndrome definitions, surveillance, and epidemiologic data gaps. Sentinel surveillance provides an overview of trends and prevalence of different capsular groups supporting vaccine selection and planning, whereas cost-effectiveness decisions require comprehensive disease burden data, ideally counting every case. Surveillance data showed importance of serogroup B MD in North Africa and serogroup W expansion in Turkey and South Africa. Success of MenAfriVac ® in the African "meningitis belt" was reviewed; the GMI believes similar benefits may follow development of a low-cost meningococcal pentavalent vaccine, currently in phase 1 clinical trial, by 2022. The importance of carriage and herd protection for controlling invasive MD and the importance of advocacy and awareness campaigns were also highlighted. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  1. The Global Evidence Mapping Initiative: Scoping research in broad topic areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tavender Emma

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Evidence mapping describes the quantity, design and characteristics of research in broad topic areas, in contrast to systematic reviews, which usually address narrowly-focused research questions. The breadth of evidence mapping helps to identify evidence gaps, and may guide future research efforts. The Global Evidence Mapping (GEM Initiative was established in 2007 to create evidence maps providing an overview of existing research in Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI and Spinal Cord Injury (SCI. Methods The GEM evidence mapping method involved three core tasks: 1. Setting the boundaries and context of the map: Definitions for the fields of TBI and SCI were clarified, the prehospital, acute inhospital and rehabilitation phases of care were delineated and relevant stakeholders (patients, carers, clinicians, researchers and policymakers who could contribute to the mapping were identified. Researchable clinical questions were developed through consultation with key stakeholders and a broad literature search. 2. Searching for and selection of relevant studies: Evidence search and selection involved development of specific search strategies, development of inclusion and exclusion criteria, searching of relevant databases and independent screening and selection by two researchers. 3. Reporting on yield and study characteristics: Data extraction was performed at two levels - 'interventions and study design' and 'detailed study characteristics'. The evidence map and commentary reflected the depth of data extraction. Results One hundred and twenty-nine researchable clinical questions in TBI and SCI were identified. These questions were then prioritised into high (n = 60 and low (n = 69 importance by the stakeholders involved in question development. Since 2007, 58 263 abstracts have been screened, 3 731 full text articles have been reviewed and 1 644 relevant neurotrauma publications have been mapped, covering fifty-three high priority

  2. The Global Evidence Mapping Initiative: scoping research in broad topic areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bragge, Peter; Clavisi, Ornella; Turner, Tari; Tavender, Emma; Collie, Alex; Gruen, Russell L

    2011-06-17

    Evidence mapping describes the quantity, design and characteristics of research in broad topic areas, in contrast to systematic reviews, which usually address narrowly-focused research questions. The breadth of evidence mapping helps to identify evidence gaps, and may guide future research efforts. The Global Evidence Mapping (GEM) Initiative was established in 2007 to create evidence maps providing an overview of existing research in Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) and Spinal Cord Injury (SCI). The GEM evidence mapping method involved three core tasks:1. Setting the boundaries and context of the map: Definitions for the fields of TBI and SCI were clarified, the prehospital, acute inhospital and rehabilitation phases of care were delineated and relevant stakeholders (patients, carers, clinicians, researchers and policymakers) who could contribute to the mapping were identified. Researchable clinical questions were developed through consultation with key stakeholders and a broad literature search. 2. Searching for and selection of relevant studies: Evidence search and selection involved development of specific search strategies, development of inclusion and exclusion criteria, searching of relevant databases and independent screening and selection by two researchers. 3. Reporting on yield and study characteristics: Data extraction was performed at two levels - 'interventions and study design' and 'detailed study characteristics'. The evidence map and commentary reflected the depth of data extraction. One hundred and twenty-nine researchable clinical questions in TBI and SCI were identified. These questions were then prioritised into high (n = 60) and low (n = 69) importance by the stakeholders involved in question development. Since 2007, 58 263 abstracts have been screened, 3 731 full text articles have been reviewed and 1 644 relevant neurotrauma publications have been mapped, covering fifty-three high priority questions. GEM Initiative evidence maps have a broad

  3. A Simple Model of Global Aerosol Indirect Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghan, Steven J.; Smith, Steven J.; Wang, Minghuai; Zhang, Kai; Pringle, Kirsty; Carslaw, Kenneth; Pierce, Jeffrey; Bauer, Susanne; Adams, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Most estimates of the global mean indirect effect of anthropogenic aerosol on the Earth's energy balance are from simulations by global models of the aerosol lifecycle coupled with global models of clouds and the hydrologic cycle. Extremely simple models have been developed for integrated assessment models, but lack the flexibility to distinguish between primary and secondary sources of aerosol. Here a simple but more physically based model expresses the aerosol indirect effect (AIE) using analytic representations of cloud and aerosol distributions and processes. Although the simple model is able to produce estimates of AIEs that are comparable to those from some global aerosol models using the same global mean aerosol properties, the estimates by the simple model are sensitive to preindustrial cloud condensation nuclei concentration, preindustrial accumulation mode radius, width of the accumulation mode, size of primary particles, cloud thickness, primary and secondary anthropogenic emissions, the fraction of the secondary anthropogenic emissions that accumulates on the coarse mode, the fraction of the secondary mass that forms new particles, and the sensitivity of liquid water path to droplet number concentration. Estimates of present-day AIEs as low as 5 W/sq m and as high as 0.3 W/sq m are obtained for plausible sets of parameter values. Estimates are surprisingly linear in emissions. The estimates depend on parameter values in ways that are consistent with results from detailed global aerosol-climate simulation models, which adds to understanding of the dependence on AIE uncertainty on uncertainty in parameter values.

  4. Global transportation cost modeling for long-range planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pope, R.B.; Michelhaugh, R.D.; Singley, P.T.; Lester, P.B.

    1998-02-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) is preparing to perform significant remediation activities of the sites for which it is responsible. To accomplish this, it is preparing a corporate global plan focused on activities over the next decade. Significant in these planned activities is the transportation of the waste arising from the remediation. The costs of this transportation are expected to be large. To support the initial assessment of the plan, a cost estimating model was developed, peer-reviewed against other available packaging and transportation cost data, and applied to a significant number of shipping campaigns of radioactive waste. This cost estimating model, known as the Ten-year Plan Transportation Cost Model (TEPTRAM), can be used to model radioactive material shipments between DOE sites or from DOE sites to non-DOE destinations. The model considers the costs for (a) recovering and processing of the wastes, (b)packaging the wastes for transport, and (c) the carriage of the waste. It also provides a rough order of magnitude estimate of labor costs associated with preparing and undertaking the shipments. At the user's direction, the model can also consider the cost of DOE's interactions with its external stakeholders (e.g., state and local governments and tribal entities) and the cost associated with tracking and communicating with the shipments. By considering all of these sources of costs, it provides a mechanism for assessing and comparing the costs of various waste processing and shipping campaign alternatives to help guide decision-making. Recent analyses of specific planned shipments of transuranic (TRU) waste which consider alternative packaging options are described. These analyses show that options are available for significantly reducing total costs while still satisfying regulatory requirements

  5. Global transportation cost modeling for long range planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pope, R.B.; Michelhaugh, R.D.; Singley, P.T.; Lester, P.B.

    1998-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is preparing to perform significant remediation activities of the sites for which it is responsible. To accomplish this, it is preparing a corporate global plan focused on activities over the next decade. Significant in these planned activities is the transportation of the waste arising from the remediation. The costs of this transportation are expected to be large. To support the initial assessment of the plan, a cost-estimating model was developed, peer-reviewed against other available packaging and transportation cost data, and applied to significant number of shipping campaigns of radioactive waste. This cost-estimating model, known as the TEn-year Plan TRAnsportation cost Model (TEPTRAM), can be used to model radioactive material shipments between DOE sites or from DOE sites to non-DOE destinations. The model considers the costs for recovering and processing of the wastes, packaging the wastes for transport, and the carriage of the waste. It also provides a rough order-of-magnitude estimate of labor costs associated with preparing nd undertaking the shipments. At the user's direction, the model can also consider the cost of DOE's interactions with its external stakeholders (e.g., state and local governments and tribal entities) and the cost associated with tracking and communicating with the shipments. By considering all of these sources of costs, it provides a mechanism for assessing and comparing the costs of various waste processing and shipping campaign alternatives to help guide decision-making. Recent analyses of specific planned shipments of transuranic (TRU) waste which consider alternative packaging options are described. These analyses show that options are available for significantly reducing total costs while still satisfying regulatory requirements. (authors)

  6. International Surface Temperature Initiative (ISTI) Global Land Surface Temperature Databank - Stage 2 Monthly

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The global land surface temperature databank contains monthly timescale mean, max, and min temperature for approximately 40,000 stations globally. It was developed...

  7. International Surface Temperature Initiative (ISTI) Global Land Surface Temperature Databank - Stage 3 Monthly

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Land Surface Temperature Databank contains monthly timescale mean, maximum, and minimum temperature for approximately 40,000 stations globally. It was...

  8. International Surface Temperature Initiative (ISTI) Global Land Surface Temperature Databank - Stage 2 Daily

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The global land surface temperature databank contains monthly timescale mean, max, and min temperature for approximately 40,000 stations globally. It was developed...

  9. International Surface Temperature Initiative (ISTI) Global Land Surface Temperature Databank - Stage 1 Monthly

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The global land surface temperature databank contains monthly timescale mean, max, and min temperature for approximately 40,000 stations globally. It was developed...

  10. International Surface Temperature Initiative (ISTI) Global Land Surface Temperature Databank - Stage 1 Daily

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The global land surface temperature databank contains monthly timescale mean, max, and min temperature for approximately 40,000 stations globally. It was developed...

  11. Stochastic Models for Chloride-Initiated Corrosion in Reinforced Concrete

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engelund, Svend; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    Corrosion of the reinforcement in concrete structures can lead to a substantial decrease of the load-bearing capacity. One mode of corrosion initiation is when the chloride content around the reinforcement exceeds a threshold value. In the present paper a statistical model is developed by which...... the chloride content in a 1reinforced concrete structure can be predicted. The model parameters are estimated on the basis of measurements. The distribution of the time to initiation of corrosion is estimated by FORMISORM-analysis....

  12. Stochastic Models for Chloride-Initiated Corrosion in Reinforced Concrete

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engelund, S.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    1996-01-01

    Corrosion of the reinforcement in concrete structures can lead to a substantial decrease of the load-bearing capacity. One mode of corrosion initiation is when the chloride content around the reinforcement exceeds a threshold value. In the present paper a statistical model is developed by which...... the chloride content in a reinforced concrete structure can be predicted. The model parameters are estimated on the basis of measurements. The distribution of the time to initiation of corrosion is estimated by FORM/SORM-analysis....

  13. Global qualitative analysis of a quartic ecological model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Broer, Hendrik; Gaiko, Valery A.

    2010-01-01

    in this paper we complete the global qualitative analysis of a quartic ecological model. In particular, studying global bifurcations of singular points and limit cycles, we prove that the corresponding dynamical system has at most two limit cycles. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Existence of global attractor for the Trojan Y Chromosome model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaopeng Zhao

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with the long time behavior of solution for the equation derived by the Trojan Y Chromosome (TYC model with spatial spread. Based on the regularity estimates for the semigroups and the classical existence theorem of global attractors, we prove that this equations possesses a global attractor in $H^k(\\Omega^4$ $(k\\geq 0$ space.

  15. Models for prediction of global solar radiation on horizontal surface ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The estimation of global solar radiation continues to play a fundamental role in solar engineering systems and applications. This paper compares various models for estimating the average monthly global solar radiation on horizontal surface for Akure, Nigeria, using solar radiation and sunshine duration data covering years ...

  16. OILMAP: A global approach to spill modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spaulding, M.L.; Howlett, E.; Anderson, E.; Jayko, K.

    1992-01-01

    OILMAP is an oil spill model system suitable for use in both rapid response mode and long-range contingency planning. It was developed for a personal computer and employs full-color graphics to enter data, set up spill scenarios, and view model predictions. The major components of OILMAP include environmental data entry and viewing capabilities, the oil spill models, and model prediction display capabilities. Graphic routines are provided for entering wind data, currents, and any type of geographically referenced data. Several modes of the spill model are available. The surface trajectory mode is intended for quick spill response. The weathering model includes the spreading, evaporation, entrainment, emulsification, and shoreline interaction of oil. The stochastic and receptor models simulate a large number of trajectories from a single site for generating probability statistics. Each model and the algorithms they use are described. Several additional capabilities are planned for OILMAP, including simulation of tactical spill response and subsurface oil transport. 8 refs

  17. The Global Tracheostomy Collaborative: one institution's experience with a new quality improvement initiative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavin, Jennifer; Shah, Rahul; Greenlick, Hannah; Gaudreau, Philip; Bedwell, Joshua

    2016-01-01

    Given the low frequency of adverse events after tracheostomy, individual institutions struggle to collect outcome data to generate effective quality improvement protocols. The Global Tracheostomy Collaborative (GTC) is a multi-institutional, multi-disciplinary organization that utilizes a prospective database to collect data on patients undergoing tracheostomy. We describe our institution's preliminary experience with this collaborative. It was hypothesized that entry into the database would be non-burdensome and could be easily and accurately initiated by skilled specialists at the time of tracheostomy placement and completed at time of patient discharge. Demographic, diagnostic, and outcome data on children undergoing tracheostomy at our institution from January 2013 to June 2015 were entered into the GTC database, a database collected and managed by REDCap (Research Electronic Data Capture). All data entry was performed by pediatric otolaryngology fellows and all post-operative updates were completed by a skilled tracheostomy nurse. Tracked outcomes included accidental decannulation, failed decannulation, tracheostomy tube obstruction, bleeding/tracheoinnominate fistula, and tracheocutaneous fistula. Data from 79 patients undergoing tracheostomy at our institution were recorded. Database entry was straightforward and entry of patient demographic information, medical comorbidities, surgical indications, and date of tracheostomy placement was completed in less than 5min per patient. The most common indication for surgery was facilitation of ventilation in 65 patients (82.3%). Average time from admission to tracheostomy was 62.6 days (range 0-246). Stomal breakdown was seen in 1 patient. A total of 72 patients were tracked to hospital discharge with 53 patients surviving (88.3%). No mortalities were tracheostomy-related. The Global Tracheostomy Collaborative is a multi-institutional, multi-disciplinary collaborative that collects data on patients undergoing

  18. Impact of global health governance on country health systems: the case of HIV initiatives in Nigeria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chima, Charles Chikodili; Homedes, Nuria

    2015-06-01

    Three global health initiatives (GHIs) - the US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the World Bank Multi-Country HIV/AIDS Program - finance most HIV services in Nigeria. Critics assert that GHIs burden fragile health systems in resource-poor countries and that health system limitations in these countries constrain the achievement of the objectives of GHIs. This study analyzed interactions between HIV GHIs and the Nigerian Health System and explored how the impact of the GHIs could be optimized. A country case study was conducted using qualitative methods, including: semi-structured interviews, direct observation, and archival review. Semi-structured interviews were held with key informants selected to reach a broad range of stakeholders including policymakers, program managers, service providers, representatives of donor agencies and their implementing partners; the WHO country office in Nigeria; independent consultants; and civil society organizations involved in HIV work. The fieldwork was conducted between June and August 2013. HIV GHIs have had a mixed impact on the health system. They have enhanced availability of and access to HIV services, improved quality of services, and strengthened health information systems and the role of non-state actors in health care. On the negative end, HIV donor funding has increased dependency on foreign aid, widened disparities in access to HIV services, done little to address the sustainability of the services, crowded out non-HIV health services, and led to the development of a parallel supply management system. They have also not invested significantly in the production of new health workers and have not addressed maldistribution problems, but have rather contributed to internal brain drain by luring health workers from the public sector to non-governmental organizations and have increased workload for existing health workers. There is poor policy direction

  19. On specification of initial conditions in turbulence models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rollin, Bertrand [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Andrews, Malcolm J [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2010-12-01

    Recent research has shown that initial conditions have a significant influence on the evolution of a flow towards turbulence. This important finding offers a unique opportunity for turbulence control, but also raises the question of how to properly specify initial conditions in turbulence models. We study this problem in the context of the Rayleigh-Taylor instability. The Rayleigh-Taylor instability is an interfacial fluid instability that leads to turbulence and turbulent mixing. It occurs when a light fluid is accelerated in to a heavy fluid because of misalignment between density and pressure gradients. The Rayleigh-Taylor instability plays a key role in a wide variety of natural and man-made flows ranging from supernovae to the implosion phase of Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF). Our approach consists of providing the turbulence models with a predicted profile of its key variables at the appropriate time in accordance to the initial conditions of the problem.

  20. Wind laws for shockless initialization. [numerical forecasting model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghil, M.; Shkoller, B.

    1976-01-01

    A system of diagnostic equations for the velocity field, or wind laws, was derived for each of a number of models of large-scale atmospheric flow. The derivation in each case is mathematically exact and does not involve any physical assumptions not already present in the prognostic equations, such as nondivergence or vanishing of derivatives of the divergence. Therefore, initial states computed by solving these diagnostic equations should be compatible with the type of motion described by the prognostic equations of the model and should not generate initialization shocks when inserted into the model. Numerical solutions of the diagnostic system corresponding to a barotropic model are exhibited. Some problems concerning the possibility of implementing such a system in operational numerical weather prediction are discussed.

  1. Modeling the Acceleration of Global Surface Temperture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, B.

    2017-12-01

    A mathematical projection focusing on the changing rate of acceleration of Global Surface Temperatures. Using historical trajectory and informed expert near-term prediction, it is possible to extend this further forward drawing a reference arc of acceleration. Presented here is an example of this technique based on data found in the Summary of Findings of A New Estimate of the Average Earth Surface Land Temperature Spanning 1753 to 2011 and that same team's stated prediction to 2050. With this, we can project a curve showing future acceleration: Decade (midpoint) Change in Global Land Temp Degrees C Known Slope Projected Trend 1755 0.000 1955 0.600 0.0030 2005 1.500 0.0051 2045 3.000 0.0375 2095 5.485 0.0497 2145 8.895 0.0682 2195 13.488 0.0919 Observations: Slopes are getting steeper and doing so faster in an "acceleration of the acceleration" or an "arc of acceleration". This is consistent with the non-linear accelerating feedback loops of global warming. Such projected temperatures threaten human civilization and human life. This `thumbnail' projection is consistent with the other long term predictions based on anthropogenic greenhouse gases. This projection is low when compared to those whose forecasts include greenhouse gases released from thawing permafrost and clathrate hydrates. A reference line: This curve should be considered a point of reference. In the near term and absent significant drawdown of greenhouse gases, my "bet" for this AGU session is that future temperatures will generally be above this reference curve. For example, the decade ending 2020 - more than 1.9C and the decade ending 2030 - more than 2.3C - again measured from the 1750 start point. *Caveat: The long term curve and prediction assumes that mankind does not move quickly away from high cost fossil fuels and does not invent, mobilize and take actions drawing down greenhouse gases. Those seeking a comprehensive action plan are directed to drawdown.org

  2. The development of radioactivity diffusion model in global ocean

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakano, M.; Watanabe, H.; Katagiri, H.

    2000-01-01

    The radioactivity diffusion model in global ocean has been developing in order to assess the long-term behavior of radioactive materials for discharge from nuclear facility. The model system consists of two parts. One is to calculate current velocity; and the other is for particle chasing. Both systems are executed by Macintosh personal computer. A lot of techniques to estimate ocean current velocity were investigated in geophysical field. The robust diagnosis model advocated by Sarmiento and Bryan was applied to build the numerical calculation system for getting the current velocity field in global scale. The latitudinal and longitudinal lattices were 2 degrees each and the number of vertical layer was 15. The movement of radioactive materials by current and diffusion were calculated using the particle chasing system. The above-mentioned current velocity field and the initial particle positions at will were read by the system. The movement of a particle was calculated using the interpolated current data step by step. The diffusion of a particle was calculated by random walk method. The model was verified by using the fallout data from atmospheric nuclear test. Yearly and latitudinal fallout data was adopted from UNSCEAR1977. The calculation result was compared with the observation data that includes total amount and vertical profile of Cs-137 and Pu-239,240 in the North Pacific Ocean. The result of the verification was agreed with the following general knowledge. Though the fallout amount between 40N and 50N was the biggest in the world, the amount in the seawater between 40N and 50N was smaller than that in south of 40N because of horizontal transportation, which carried water from north to south. As for vertical profile, Cs-137 could be accurately calculated except the surface layer. However the observation peak of Pu-239,240 existed deeper than the calculation peak. This model could calculate the vertical profile of Cs-137 because most of Cs exists as dissolved

  3. Numerical Simulation of Hydrogen Combustion: Global Reaction Model and Validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Yun [School of Energy and Power Engineering, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an (China); Department of Mechanical, Aerospace and Nuclear Engineering, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY (United States); Liu, Yinhe, E-mail: yinheliu@mail.xjtu.edu.cn [School of Energy and Power Engineering, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an (China)

    2017-11-20

    Due to the complexity of modeling the combustion process in nuclear power plants, the global mechanisms are preferred for numerical simulation. To quickly perform the highly resolved simulations with limited processing resources of large-scale hydrogen combustion, a method based on thermal theory was developed to obtain kinetic parameters of global reaction mechanism of hydrogen–air combustion in a wide range. The calculated kinetic parameters at lower hydrogen concentration (C{sub hydrogen} < 20%) were validated against the results obtained from experimental measurements in a container and combustion test facility. In addition, the numerical data by the global mechanism (C{sub hydrogen} > 20%) were compared with the results by detailed mechanism. Good agreement between the model prediction and the experimental data was achieved, and the comparison between simulation results by the detailed mechanism and the global reaction mechanism show that the present calculated global mechanism has excellent predictable capabilities for a wide range of hydrogen–air mixtures.

  4. Numerical Simulation of Hydrogen Combustion: Global Reaction Model and Validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Yun; Liu, Yinhe

    2017-01-01

    Due to the complexity of modeling the combustion process in nuclear power plants, the global mechanisms are preferred for numerical simulation. To quickly perform the highly resolved simulations with limited processing resources of large-scale hydrogen combustion, a method based on thermal theory was developed to obtain kinetic parameters of global reaction mechanism of hydrogen–air combustion in a wide range. The calculated kinetic parameters at lower hydrogen concentration (C hydrogen < 20%) were validated against the results obtained from experimental measurements in a container and combustion test facility. In addition, the numerical data by the global mechanism (C hydrogen > 20%) were compared with the results by detailed mechanism. Good agreement between the model prediction and the experimental data was achieved, and the comparison between simulation results by the detailed mechanism and the global reaction mechanism show that the present calculated global mechanism has excellent predictable capabilities for a wide range of hydrogen–air mixtures.

  5. Deterministic integer multiple firing depending on initial state in Wang model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xie Yong [Institute of Nonlinear Dynamics, MSSV, Department of Engineering Mechanics, Xi' an Jiaotong University, Xi' an 710049 (China)]. E-mail: yxie@mail.xjtu.edu.cn; Xu Jianxue [Institute of Nonlinear Dynamics, MSSV, Department of Engineering Mechanics, Xi' an Jiaotong University, Xi' an 710049 (China); Jiang Jun [Institute of Nonlinear Dynamics, MSSV, Department of Engineering Mechanics, Xi' an Jiaotong University, Xi' an 710049 (China)

    2006-12-15

    We investigate numerically dynamical behaviour of the Wang model, which describes the rhythmic activities of thalamic relay neurons. The model neuron exhibits Type I excitability from a global view, but Type II excitability from a local view. There exists a narrow range of bistability, in which a subthreshold oscillation and a suprathreshold firing behaviour coexist. A special firing pattern, integer multiple firing can be found in the certain part of the bistable range. The characteristic feature of such firing pattern is that the histogram of interspike intervals has a multipeaked structure, and the peaks are located at about integer multiples of a basic interspike interval. Since the Wang model is noise-free, the integer multiple firing is a deterministic firing pattern. The existence of bistability leads to the deterministic integer multiple firing depending on the initial state of the model neuron, i.e., the initial values of the state variables.

  6. Deterministic integer multiple firing depending on initial state in Wang model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xie Yong; Xu Jianxue; Jiang Jun

    2006-01-01

    We investigate numerically dynamical behaviour of the Wang model, which describes the rhythmic activities of thalamic relay neurons. The model neuron exhibits Type I excitability from a global view, but Type II excitability from a local view. There exists a narrow range of bistability, in which a subthreshold oscillation and a suprathreshold firing behaviour coexist. A special firing pattern, integer multiple firing can be found in the certain part of the bistable range. The characteristic feature of such firing pattern is that the histogram of interspike intervals has a multipeaked structure, and the peaks are located at about integer multiples of a basic interspike interval. Since the Wang model is noise-free, the integer multiple firing is a deterministic firing pattern. The existence of bistability leads to the deterministic integer multiple firing depending on the initial state of the model neuron, i.e., the initial values of the state variables

  7. The Swarm Initial Field Model for the 2014 geomagnetic field

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Nils; Hulot, Gauthier; Lesur, Vincent

    2015-01-01

    agreement (up to at least degree 60) with recent field models derived from CHAMP data, providing an initial validation of the quality of the Swarm magnetic measurements. Use of gradient data improves the determination of both the static field and its secular variation, with the mean misfit for East...

  8. Calculation of the Initial Magnetic Field for Mercury's Magnetosphere Hybrid Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexeev, Igor; Parunakian, David; Dyadechkin, Sergey; Belenkaya, Elena; Khodachenko, Maxim; Kallio, Esa; Alho, Markku

    2018-03-01

    Several types of numerical models are used to analyze the interactions of the solar wind flow with Mercury's magnetosphere, including kinetic models that determine magnetic and electric fields based on the spatial distribution of charges and currents, magnetohydrodynamic models that describe plasma as a conductive liquid, and hybrid models that describe ions kinetically in collisionless mode and represent electrons as a massless neutralizing liquid. The structure of resulting solutions is determined not only by the chosen set of equations that govern the behavior of plasma, but also by the initial and boundary conditions; i.e., their effects are not limited to the amount of computational work required to achieve a quasi-stationary solution. In this work, we have proposed using the magnetic field computed by the paraboloid model of Mercury's magnetosphere as the initial condition for subsequent hybrid modeling. The results of the model have been compared to measurements performed by the Messenger spacecraft during a single crossing of the magnetosheath and the magnetosphere. The selected orbit lies in the terminator plane, which allows us to observe two crossings of the bow shock and the magnetopause. In our calculations, we have defined the initial parameters of the global magnetospheric current systems in a way that allows us to minimize paraboloid magnetic field deviation along the trajectory of the Messenger from the experimental data. We have shown that the optimal initial field parameters include setting the penetration of a partial interplanetary magnetic field into the magnetosphere with a penetration coefficient of 0.2.

  9. Local adaptations to a global health initiative: penalties for home births in Zambia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greeson, Dana; Sacks, Emma; Masvawure, Tsitsi B; Austin-Evelyn, Katherine; Kruk, Margaret E; Macwan'gi, Mubiana; Grépin, Karen A

    2016-11-01

    Global health initiatives (GHIs) are implemented across a variety of geographies and cultures. Those targeting maternal health often prioritise increasing facility delivery rates. Pressure on local implementers to meet GHI goals may lead to unintended programme features that could negatively impact women. This study investigates penalties for home births imposed by traditional leaders on women during the implementation of Saving Mothers, Giving Life (SMGL) in Zambia. Forty focus group discussions (FGDs) were conducted across four rural districts to assess community experiences of SMGL at the conclusion of its first year. Participants included women who recently delivered at home (3 FGDs/district), women who recently delivered in a health facility (3 FGDs/district), community health workers (2 FGDs/district) and local leaders (2 FGDs/district). Findings indicate that community leaders in some districts-independently of formal programme directive-used fines to penalise women who delivered at home rather than in a facility. Participants in nearly all focus groups reported hearing about the imposition of penalties following programme implementation. Some women reported experiencing penalties firsthand, including cash and livestock fines, or fees for child health cards that are typically free. Many women who delivered at home reported their intention to deliver in a facility in the future to avoid penalties. While communities largely supported the use of penalties to promote facility delivery, the penalties effectively introduced a new tax on poor rural women and may have deterred their utilization of postnatal and child health care services. The imposition of penalties is thus a punitive adaptation that can impose new financial burdens on vulnerable women and contribute to widening health, economic and gender inequities in communities. Health initiatives that aim to increase demand for health services should monitor local efforts to achieve programme targets in order

  10. Technology Learning Ratios in Global Energy Models; Ratios de Aprendizaje Tecnologico en Modelos Energeticos Globales

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Varela, M.

    2001-07-01

    The process of introduction of a new technology supposes that while its production and utilisation increases, also its operation improves and its investment costs and production decreases. The accumulation of experience and learning of a new technology increase in parallel with the increase of its market share. This process is represented by the technological learning curves and the energy sector is not detached from this process of substitution of old technologies by new ones. The present paper carries out a brief revision of the main energy models that include the technology dynamics (learning). The energy scenarios, developed by global energy models, assume that the characteristics of the technologies are variables with time. But this tend is incorporated in a exogenous way in these energy models, that is to say, it is only a time function. This practice is applied to the cost indicators of the technology such as the specific investment costs or to the efficiency of the energy technologies. In the last years, the new concept of endogenous technological learning has been integrated within these global energy models. This paper examines the concept of technological learning in global energy models. It also analyses the technological dynamics of the energy systems including the endogenous modelling of the process of technological progress. Finally, it makes a comparison of several of the most used global energy models (MARKAL, MESSAGE and ERIS) and, more concretely, about the use these models make of the concept of technological learning. (Author) 17 refs.

  11. The global polio eradication initiative: lessons learned and prospects for success.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aylward, Bruce; Tangermann, Rudolf

    2011-12-30

    Following the rapid progress towards interrupting indigenous wild poliovirus transmission in the Americas in the early 1980s, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) was launched with a resolution of the World Health Assembly (WHA) in 1988. The GPEI built on many lessons learned from smallpox eradication, including the large-scale deployment of technical assistance, implementing agendas of innovation and research and the use of professionally planned and guided advocacy. By the year 2000, the incidence of polio globally had decreased by 99% compared with the estimated >350,000 cases reported from 125 endemic countries in 1988. By 2002, three WHO Regions (the Americas, Western Pacific and European Regions) had been certified polio-free. By 2005, transmission of indigenous wild poliovirus (WPV) had been interrupted in all but 4 'endemic' countries: India, Nigeria, Pakistan and Afghanistan, where eradication efforts effectively stalled. WPV exported from northern Nigeria and northern India subsequently caused >50 outbreaks and paralysed >1500 children in previously polio-free countries across Asia and Africa. In each of the four remaining polio-endemic countries different challenges, or a combination of factors, prevented to build up sufficient levels of population immunity to stop transmission. Consequently, specific strategies were increasingly tailored to each setting. A new 2010-2012 GPEI Strategic Plan was developed which brought together several approaches to overcome the remaining hurdles to eradication, including the large-scale use of bivalent oral poliovaccine (bOPV) in supplementary immunization activities (SIAs). By the end of 2010, the impact of the new GPEI Strategic Plan 2010-2012 was apparent. Compared to 2009, the number of new polio cases in 2010 fell by 95% in both northern Nigeria and northern India, the world's largest remaining reservoirs of indigenous WPVs. By mid-2011, India had not reported a polio case for more than 5 months, and in

  12. Groundwater development stress: Global-scale indices compared to regional modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alley, William; Clark, Brian R.; Ely, Matt; Faunt, Claudia

    2018-01-01

    The increased availability of global datasets and technologies such as global hydrologic models and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites have resulted in a growing number of global-scale assessments of water availability using simple indices of water stress. Developed initially for surface water, such indices are increasingly used to evaluate global groundwater resources. We compare indices of groundwater development stress for three major agricultural areas of the United States to information available from regional water budgets developed from detailed groundwater modeling. These comparisons illustrate the potential value of regional-scale analyses to supplement global hydrological models and GRACE analyses of groundwater depletion. Regional-scale analyses allow assessments of water stress that better account for scale effects, the dynamics of groundwater flow systems, the complexities of irrigated agricultural systems, and the laws, regulations, engineering, and socioeconomic factors that govern groundwater use. Strategic use of regional-scale models with global-scale analyses would greatly enhance knowledge of the global groundwater depletion problem.

  13. Evaluation of the Global Lung Initiative 2012 Reference Values for Spirometry in African Children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arigliani, Michele; Canciani, Mario C; Mottini, Giovanni; Altomare, Michele; Magnolato, Andrea; Loa Clemente, Sofia Vanda; Tshilolo, Leon; Cogo, Paola; Quanjer, Philip H

    2017-01-15

    Despite the high burden of respiratory disease, no spirometry reference values for African children are available. Investigate whether the Global Lung Initiative (GLI-2012) reference values for spirometry are appropriate for children in sub-Saharan Africa and assess the impact of malnutrition on lung function. Anthropometry and spirometry were obtained in children aged 6 to 12 years from urban and semiurban schools in three African countries. Spirometry z-scores were derived using the GLI-2012 prediction equations for African Americans. Thinness (body mass index z-score Spirometry outcomes were compared with those of African American children from the third National Health and Nutrition Survey. Spirometry data were analyzed from 1,082 schoolchildren (51% boys) aged 6.0 to 12.8 years in Angola (n = 306), Democratic Republic of the Congo (n = 377), and Madagascar (n = 399). GLI-2012 provided a good fit with mean (SD) z-scores of -0.11 (0.83) for FEV 1 , -0.08 (0.86) for FVC, and -0.07 (0.83) for FEV 1 /FVC. Because of low scatter, the fifth centile corresponded to -1.3 z-scores in boys and -1.5 z-scores in girls. Malnourished African children had a normal FEV 1 /FVC ratio but significant reductions of ∼0.5 z-scores (∼5%) in FEV 1 and FVC compared with African American peers from the third National Health and Nutrition Survey. Children in Angola had the lowest, and those in Madagascar had the highest, zFEV 1 and zFVC. The results of this study support the use of GLI-2012 reference values for schoolchildren in sub-Saharan Africa. Malnutrition affects body growth, leading to a proportionately smaller FEV 1 and FVC without respiratory impairment, as shown by the normal FEV 1 /FVC ratio.

  14. The global threat reduction initiative's radiological security cooperation with Russia - 59361

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blanchard, Tiffany A.; Abramson, William J.; Russell, James W. Jr.; Roberts, Catherine K.

    2012-01-01

    The United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) / National Nuclear Security Administration's (NNSA) Global Threat Reduction Initiative (GTRI) supports both U.S. and international threat reduction goals by securing vulnerable nuclear and radiological material located at civilian sites throughout the world. GTRI's approach to reducing the threat posed by vulnerable, high-activity radioactive sources includes removing and disposing of orphan or disused radioactive sources; implementing physical security upgrades at civilian sites containing radioactive sources; and establishing a cooperative sustainability program at sites to ensure that upgrades are maintained. For many years GTRI has collaborated successfully with the Russian Federation and international partners to improve radiological security in Russia. This paper provides a synopsis of GTRI's accomplishments and cooperation with Russia in the following areas: 1.) recovering and disposing of orphan and disused radioactive sources, 2.) recovering and disposing of radioisotope thermoelectric generators (RTGs), and 3.) providing physical security upgrades at civilian sites that contain vulnerable radiological material. The success of GTRI's program to secure radiological material in the Russian Federation over the past decade is due largely to the hard work, technical expertise, and tenacity of the U.S. laboratory teams and the Russian partner organizations with whom GTRI has worked. GTRI plans to continue building on this history of cooperation in order to recover and secure additional, vulnerable radioactive sources in locations throughout Russia. GTRI also is committed to sustainability efforts so that facilities in Russia receiving physical protection equipment and training are prepared to eventually assume responsibility for those security upgrades. In the years to come, GTRI will combine financial support with capacity building to enhance Russia's domestic programs to address these challenges. Through

  15. Transforming forest landscape conflicts: the promises and perils of global forest management initiatives such as REDD+

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seth Kane

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Implementation of Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+ is designed to relieve pressure on tropical forests, however, many are concerned that it is a threat to the rights of forest communities. These potential risks need serious attention as earlier studies have shown that the Asia-Pacific region is a forest conflict hotspot, with many economic, environmental and social implications at global (e.g. climate change to local levels (e.g. poverty. Drawing on an analysis of nine case studies from four countries (Cambodia, Myanmar, Nepal and Vietnam this paper examines why and how REDD+ can be a driver for forest conflict and how it also has the potential to simultaneously transform these conflicts. The analytical framework, “sources of impairment”, applied in the study was developed to increase understanding and facilitate the resolution of forest landscape conflicts in a sustainable manner (i.e. transformation. The main findings are that REDD+ can be a source of conflict in the study sites, but also had transformative potential when good practices were followed. For example, in some sites, the REDD+ projects were sources of impairment for forest communities by restricting access to forest resources. However, the research also identified REDD+ projects that enabled the participation of traditionally marginalized groups and built local forest management capacities, leading to strengthened tenure for some forest communities. Similarly, in some countries REDD+ has served as a mechanism to pilot Free, Prior and Informed Consent (FPIC, which will likely have significant impacts in mitigating conflicts by addressing the sources at local to national levels. Based on these findings, there are many reasons to be optimistic that REDD+ can address the underlying causes of forest landscape conflicts, especially when linked with other governance initiatives such as Forest Law Enforcement, Governance and Trade – Voluntary

  16. The use of economic indicators from the Global Reporting Initiative by Spanish listed companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María José García

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR in companies is widely accepted within today’s business community. However, the intangibility of this concept and the dispersion of related standards and regulations has created a context characterized by lack of homogeneity in the publishing of CSR results. The present study aims to determine the extent to which Global Reporting Initiative (GRI indicators are used by Spanish listed companies. Design/methodology/approach: An empirical analysis has been performed to asses and evaluate the 2011 CSR reports published by the companies listed on the IBEX-35, the Spanish stock exchange index which includes the most important listed companies. The analysis is centered exclusively on the economic indicators established by the GRI. The methodology used to interpret the results is based on the procedures of multivariate analysis, namely principal components analysis, correlation matrix, and hierarchical clustering. Findings: The results of the study show that although the GRI tool is used extensively within the IBEX-35, the level of performance regarding the parameters established by the GRI varies depending on the studied company and indicator. Research limitations: This study focuses on the biggest Spanish listed companies; thus, the conclusions may differ in other geographic locations, as well as for smaller businesses. Practical implications: This line of research helps to know more about the social reporting policies of big Spanish listed companies. Social implications: The evidence provided by this study helps to know more about the Corporate Social Responsibility policies and sustainability reports and declarations of social and environmental values governing their organizations. Originality/value: This study is the first using principal component analysis in Spanish listed companies focusing in the economic indicators of the GRI.

  17. Global Nonlinear Model Identification with Multivariate Splines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Visser, C.C.

    2011-01-01

    At present, model based control systems play an essential role in many aspects of modern society. Application areas of model based control systems range from food processing to medical imaging, and from process control in oil refineries to the flight control systems of modern aircraft. Central to a

  18. Fourier series models through transformation | Omekara | Global ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    As a result, the square transformation which outperforms the others is adopted. Consequently, each of the multiplicative and additive FSA models fitted to the transformed data are then subjected to a test for white noise based on spectral analysis. The result of this test shows that only the multiplicative model is adequate.

  19. Modeling global distribution of agricultural insecticides in surface waters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ippolito, Alessio; Kattwinkel, Mira; Rasmussen, Jes J.; Schäfer, Ralf B.; Fornaroli, Riccardo; Liess, Matthias

    2015-01-01

    Agricultural insecticides constitute a major driver of animal biodiversity loss in freshwater ecosystems. However, the global extent of their effects and the spatial extent of exposure remain largely unknown. We applied a spatially explicit model to estimate the potential for agricultural insecticide runoff into streams. Water bodies within 40% of the global land surface were at risk of insecticide runoff. We separated the influence of natural factors and variables under human control determining insecticide runoff. In the northern hemisphere, insecticide runoff presented a latitudinal gradient mainly driven by insecticide application rate; in the southern hemisphere, a combination of daily rainfall intensity, terrain slope, agricultural intensity and insecticide application rate determined the process. The model predicted the upper limit of observed insecticide exposure measured in water bodies (n = 82) in five different countries reasonably well. The study provides a global map of hotspots for insecticide contamination guiding future freshwater management and conservation efforts. - Highlights: • First global map on insecticide runoff through modelling. • Model predicts upper limit of insecticide exposure when compared to field data. • Water bodies in 40% of global land surface may be at risk of adverse effects. • Insecticide application rate, terrain slope and rainfall main drivers of exposure. - We provide the first global map on insecticide runoff to surface water predicting that water bodies in 40% of global land surface may be at risk of adverse effects

  20. Global solutions to the initial-boundary value problem for the quasilinear viscoelastic equation with a derivative nonlinearity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mitsuhiro Nakao

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We prove the existence and uniqueness of a global decaying solution to the initial boundary value problem for the quasilinear wave equation with Kelvin-Voigt dissipation and a derivative nonlinearity. To derive the required estimates of the solutions we employ a 'loan' method and use a difference inequality on the energy.

  1. Globalizing High-Tech Business Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Turcan, Romeo V.

    2012-01-01

    resources and behavioral patterns. Two sources could be identified that effect these tensions, namely strategic experimentation and business model experimentation. For example, entrepreneurs are trying to ease the tensions in the organizational gestalt as a result of a change in the business model...... and growth path. To internationalize, international new ventures have to develop a product-led business model as services do not travel. Opting to attract venture capital, entrepreneurs are to deal with dyadic tensions that are the result of differences in entrepreneurs’ and VCs’ goals and measures...

  2. The use of international service learning initiatives for global health education: case studies from Rwanda and Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plumb, Ellen; Roe, Kathleen; Plumb, James; Sepe, Priscilla; Soin, Komal; Ramirez, Aragon; Baganizi, Edmond; Simmons, Rob; Khubchandani, Jagdish

    2013-05-01

    Global health education and health promotion have the potential to engage students, scholars, and practitioners in ways that go beyond the classroom teaching routine. This engagement in global communities, can range from reflection on continuing deep-seated questions about human rights and civic responsibility to the use of health education and promotion-related theoretical, intellectual, and practical skills. In the arena of global health education and promotion, these skills also range from leadership and advocacy to decision making, critical and creative thinking, teamwork, and problem solving. In recent times, there has been a growing interest in cross-cultural collaborations and educational initiatives to improve stakeholder's understanding of global health principles and practices, to enrich the experiences of health professionals, and to improve the lives of those who are disenfranchised and live across borders. In this article of Health Promotion Practice, we highlight two unique cases of cross-national collaborations and provide a glimpse of the various shapes and forms taken by cross-cultural educational initiatives for global health education and promotion. We summarize the history, philosophy, and current working practices relevant to these collaborations, keeping in view the global health domains, competencies, and activities. In addition, we also compare the key components and activities of these two case studies from Rwanda and Mexico, wherein communities in these two countries collaborated with academic institutions and health professionals in the United States.

  3. Initiation model for intergranular stress corrosion cracking in BWR pipes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hishida, Mamoru; Kawakubo, Takashi; Nakagawa, Yuji; Arii, Mitsuru.

    1981-01-01

    Discussions were made on the keys of intergranular stress corrosion cracking of austenitic stainless steel in high-temperature water in laboratories and stress corrosion cracking incidents in operating plants. Based on these discussions, a model was set up of intergranular stress corrosion cracking initiation in BWR pipes. Regarding the model, it was presumed that the intergranular stress corrosion cracking initiates during start up periods whenever heat-affected zones in welded pipes are highly sensitized and suffer dynamic strain in transient water containing dissolved oxygen. A series of BWR start up simulation tests were made by using a flowing autoclave system with slow strain rate test equipment. Validity of the model was confirmed through the test results. (author)

  4. The Swarm Initial Field Model for the 2014 Geomagnetic Field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsen, Nils; Hulot, Gauthier; Lesur, Vincent; Finlay, Christopher C.; Beggan, Ciaran; Chulliat, Arnaud; Sabaka, Terence J.; Floberghagen, Rune; Friis-Christensen, Eigil; Haagmans, Roger

    2015-01-01

    Data from the first year of ESA's Swarm constellation mission are used to derive the Swarm Initial Field Model (SIFM), a new model of the Earth's magnetic field and its time variation. In addition to the conventional magnetic field observations provided by each of the three Swarm satellites, explicit advantage is taken of the constellation aspect by including east-west magnetic intensity gradient information from the lower satellite pair. Along-track differences in magnetic intensity provide further information concerning the north-south gradient. The SIFM static field shows excellent agreement (up to at least degree 60) with recent field models derived from CHAMP data, providing an initial validation of the quality of the Swarm magnetic measurements. Use of gradient data improves the determination of both the static field and its secular variation, with the mean misfit for east-west intensity differences between the lower satellite pair being only 0.12 nT.

  5. Application of the cognitive therapy model to initial crisis assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvert, Patricia; Palmer, Christine

    2003-03-01

    This article provides a background to the development of cognitive therapy and cognitive therapeutic skills with a specific focus on the treatment of a depressive episode. It discusses the utility of cognitive therapeutic strategies to the model of crisis theory and initial crisis assessment currently used by the Community Assessment & Treatment Team of Waitemata District Health Board on the North Shore of Auckland, New Zealand. A brief background to cognitive therapy is provided, followed by a comprehensive example of the use of the Socratic questioning method in guiding collaborative assessment and treatment of suicidality by nurses during the initial crisis assessment.

  6. From smallpox eradication to contemporary global health initiatives: enhancing human capacity towards a global public health goal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarantola, Daniel; Foster, Stanley O

    2011-12-30

    The eradication of smallpox owes its success first and foremost to the thousands of lay health workers and community members who, throughout the campaign and across continents, took on the roles of advocates, educators, vaccinators, care providers and contributors to epidemic surveillance and containment. Bangladesh provides a good example where smallpox eradication and the capacity enhancement needed to achieve this goal resulted in a two-way mutually beneficial process. Smallpox-dedicated staff provided community members with information guidance, support and tools. In turn, communities not only created the enabling environment for smallpox program staff to perform their work but acquired the capacity to perform essential eradication tasks. Contemporary global health programmes can learn much from these core lessons including: the pivotal importance of supporting community aspirations, capacity and resilience; the critical need to enhance commitment, capacity and accountability across the workforce; and the high value of attentive human resources management and support. We owe to subsequent global disease control, elimination and eradication ventures recognition of the need for social and behavioural science to inform public health strategies; the essential roles that civil society organizations and public-private partnerships can play in public health discourse and action; the overall necessity of investing in broad-based health system strengthening; and the utility of applying human rights principles, norms and standards to public health policy and practice. Crown Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Validation of a Global Hydrodynamic Flood Inundation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bates, P. D.; Smith, A.; Sampson, C. C.; Alfieri, L.; Neal, J. C.

    2014-12-01

    In this work we present first validation results for a hyper-resolution global flood inundation model. We use a true hydrodynamic model (LISFLOOD-FP) to simulate flood inundation at 1km resolution globally and then use downscaling algorithms to determine flood extent and depth at 90m spatial resolution. Terrain data are taken from a custom version of the SRTM data set that has been processed specifically for hydrodynamic modelling. Return periods of flood flows along the entire global river network are determined using: (1) empirical relationships between catchment characteristics and index flood magnitude in different hydroclimatic zones derived from global runoff data; and (2) an index flood growth curve, also empirically derived. Bankful return period flow is then used to set channel width and depth, and flood defence impacts are modelled using empirical relationships between GDP, urbanization and defence standard of protection. The results of these simulations are global flood hazard maps for a number of different return period events from 1 in 5 to 1 in 1000 years. We compare these predictions to flood hazard maps developed by national government agencies in the UK and Germany using similar methods but employing detailed local data, and to observed flood extent at a number of sites including St. Louis, USA and Bangkok in Thailand. Results show that global flood hazard models can have considerable skill given careful treatment to overcome errors in the publicly available data that are used as their input.

  8. Learning reliable manipulation strategies without initial physical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christiansen, Alan D.; Mason, Matthew T.; Mitchell, Tom M.

    1990-01-01

    A description is given of a robot, possessing limited sensory and effectory capabilities but no initial model of the effects of its actions on the world, that acquires such a model through exploration, practice, and observation. By acquiring an increasingly correct model of its actions, it generates increasingly successful plans to achieve its goals. In an apparently nondeterministic world, achieving reliability requires the identification of reliable actions and a preference for using such actions. Furthermore, by selecting its training actions carefully, the robot can significantly improve its learning rate.

  9. Global tropospheric ozone modeling: Quantifying errors due to grid resolution

    OpenAIRE

    Wild, Oliver; Prather, Michael J

    2006-01-01

    Ozone production in global chemical models is dependent on model resolution because ozone chemistry is inherently nonlinear, the timescales for chemical production are short, and precursors are artificially distributed over the spatial scale of the model grid. In this study we examine the sensitivity of ozone, its precursors, and its production to resolution by running a global chemical transport model at four different resolutions between T21 (5.6° × 5.6°) and T106 (1.1° × 1.1°) and by quant...

  10. Impact of transport model errors on the global and regional methane emissions estimated by inverse modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Locatelli

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available A modelling experiment has been conceived to assess the impact of transport model errors on methane emissions estimated in an atmospheric inversion system. Synthetic methane observations, obtained from 10 different model outputs from the international TransCom-CH4 model inter-comparison exercise, are combined with a prior scenario of methane emissions and sinks, and integrated into the three-component PYVAR-LMDZ-SACS (PYthon VARiational-Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique model with Zooming capability-Simplified Atmospheric Chemistry System inversion system to produce 10 different methane emission estimates at the global scale for the year 2005. The same methane sinks, emissions and initial conditions have been applied to produce the 10 synthetic observation datasets. The same inversion set-up (statistical errors, prior emissions, inverse procedure is then applied to derive flux estimates by inverse modelling. Consequently, only differences in the modelling of atmospheric transport may cause differences in the estimated fluxes. In our framework, we show that transport model errors lead to a discrepancy of 27 Tg yr−1 at the global scale, representing 5% of total methane emissions. At continental and annual scales, transport model errors are proportionally larger than at the global scale, with errors ranging from 36 Tg yr−1 in North America to 7 Tg yr−1 in Boreal Eurasia (from 23 to 48%, respectively. At the model grid-scale, the spread of inverse estimates can reach 150% of the prior flux. Therefore, transport model errors contribute significantly to overall uncertainties in emission estimates by inverse modelling, especially when small spatial scales are examined. Sensitivity tests have been carried out to estimate the impact of the measurement network and the advantage of higher horizontal resolution in transport models. The large differences found between methane flux estimates inferred in these different configurations highly

  11. Modeling and Managing the Risks of Measles and Rubella: A Global Perspective, Part I.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Kimberly M; Cochi, Stephen L

    2016-07-01

    Over the past 50 years, the use of vaccines led to significant decreases in the global burdens of measles and rubella, motivated at least in part by the successive development of global control and elimination targets. The Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) includes specific targets for regional elimination of measles and rubella in five of six regions of the World Health Organization by 2020. Achieving the GVAP measles and rubella goals will require significant immunization efforts and associated financial investments and political commitments. Planning and budgeting for these efforts can benefit from learning some important lessons from the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI). Following an overview of the global context of measles and rubella risks and discussion of lessons learned from the GPEI, we introduce the contents of the special issue on modeling and managing the risks of measles and rubella. This introduction describes the synthesis of the literature available to support evidence-based model inputs to support the development of an integrated economic and dynamic disease transmission model to support global efforts to optimally manage these diseases globally using vaccines. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  12. Hindcasting to measure ice sheet model sensitivity to initial states

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Aschwanden

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Validation is a critical component of model development, yet notoriously challenging in ice sheet modeling. Here we evaluate how an ice sheet system model responds to a given forcing. We show that hindcasting, i.e. forcing a model with known or closely estimated inputs for past events to see how well the output matches observations, is a viable method of assessing model performance. By simulating the recent past of Greenland, and comparing to observations of ice thickness, ice discharge, surface speeds, mass loss and surface elevation changes for validation, we find that the short term model response is strongly influenced by the initial state. We show that the thermal and dynamical states (i.e. the distribution of internal energy and momentum can be misrepresented despite a good agreement with some observations, stressing the importance of using multiple observations. In particular we identify rates of change of spatially dense observations as preferred validation metrics. Hindcasting enables a qualitative assessment of model performance relative to observed rates of change. It thereby reduces the number of admissible initial states more rigorously than validation efforts that do not take advantage of observed rates of change.

  13. Quantification of effective plant rooting depth: advancing global hydrological modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Y.; Donohue, R. J.; McVicar, T.

    2017-12-01

    Plant rooting depth (Zr) is a key parameter in hydrological and biogeochemical models, yet the global spatial distribution of Zr is largely unknown due to the difficulties in its direct measurement. Moreover, Zr observations are usually only representative of a single plant or several plants, which can differ greatly from the effective Zr over a modelling unit (e.g., catchment or grid-box). Here, we provide a global parameterization of an analytical Zr model that balances the marginal carbon cost and benefit of deeper roots, and produce a climatological (i.e., 1982-2010 average) global Zr map. To test the Zr estimates, we apply the estimated Zr in a highly transparent hydrological model (i.e., the Budyko-Choudhury-Porporato (BCP) model) to estimate mean annual actual evapotranspiration (E) across the globe. We then compare the estimated E with both water balance-based E observations at 32 major catchments and satellite grid-box retrievals across the globe. Our results show that the BCP model, when implemented with Zr estimated herein, optimally reproduced the spatial pattern of E at both scales and provides improved model outputs when compared to BCP model results from two already existing global Zr datasets. These results suggest that our Zr estimates can be effectively used in state-of-the-art hydrological models, and potentially biogeochemical models, where the determination of Zr currently largely relies on biome type-based look-up tables.

  14. Radiative heating in global climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baer, F.; Arsky, N.; Rocque, K. [Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)

    1996-04-01

    LWR algorithms from various GCMs vary significantly from one another for the same clear sky input data. This variability becomes pronounced when clouds are included. We demonstrate this effect by intercomparing the various models` output using observed data including clouds from ARM/CART data taken in Oklahoma.

  15. Global comparison of three greenhouse climate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bavel, van C.H.M.; Takakura, T.; Bot, G.P.A.

    1985-01-01

    Three dynamic simulation models for calculating the greenhouse climate and its energy requirements for both heating and cooling were compared by making detailed computations for each of seven sets of data. The data sets ranged from a cold winter day, requiring heating, to a hot summer day, requiring

  16. Global ocean modeling on the Connection Machine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, R.D.; Dukowicz, J.K.; Malone, R.C.

    1993-01-01

    The authors have developed a version of the Bryan-Cox-Semtner ocean model (Bryan, 1969; Semtner, 1976; Cox, 1984) for massively parallel computers. Such models are three-dimensional, Eulerian models that use latitude and longitude as the horizontal spherical coordinates and fixed depth levels as the vertical coordinate. The incompressible Navier-Stokes equations, with a turbulent eddy viscosity, and mass continuity equation are solved, subject to the hydrostatic and Boussinesq approximations. The traditional model formulation uses a rigid-lid approximation (vertical velocity = 0 at the ocean surface) to eliminate fast surface waves. These waves would otherwise require that a very short time step be used in numerical simulations, which would greatly increase the computational cost. To solve the equations with the rigid-lid assumption, the equations of motion are split into two parts: a set of twodimensional ''barotropic'' equations describing the vertically-averaged flow, and a set of three-dimensional ''baroclinic'' equations describing temperature, salinity and deviations of the horizontal velocities from the vertically-averaged flow

  17. Fracture initiation associated with chemical degradation: observation and modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Byoungho Choi; Zhenwen Zhou; Chudnovsky, Alexander [Illinois Univ., Dept. of Civil and Materials Engineering (M/C 246), Chicago, IL (United States); Stivala, Salvatore S. [Stevens Inst. of Technology, Dept. of Chemistry and Chemical Biology, Hoboken, NJ (United States); Sehanobish, Kalyan; Bosnyak, Clive P. [Dow Chemical Co., Freeport, TX (United States)

    2005-01-01

    The fracture initiation in engineering thermoplastics resulting from chemical degradation is usually observed in the form of a microcrack network within a surface layer of degraded polymer exposed to a combined action of mechanical stresses and chemically aggressive environment. Degradation of polymers is usually manifested in a reduction of molecular weight, increase of crystallinity in semi crystalline polymers, increase of material density, a subtle increase in yield strength, and a dramatic reduction in toughness. An increase in material density, i.e., shrinkage of the degraded layer is constrained by adjacent unchanged material results in a buildup of tensile stress within the degraded layer and compressive stress in the adjacent unchanged material due to increasing incompatibility between the two. These stresses are an addition to preexisting manufacturing and service stresses. At a certain level of degradation, a combination of toughness reduction and increase of tensile stress result in fracture initiation. A quantitative model of the described above processes is presented in these work. For specificity, the internally pressurized plastic pipes that transport a fluid containing a chemically aggressive (oxidizing) agent is used as the model of fracture initiation. Experimental observations of material density and toughness dependence on degradation reported elsewhere are employed in the model. An equation for determination of a critical level of degradation corresponding to the offset of fracture is constructed. The critical level of degradation for fracture initiation depends on the rates of toughness deterioration and build-up of the degradation related stresses as well as on the manufacturing and service stresses. A method for evaluation of the time interval prior to fracture initiation is also formulated. (Author)

  18. Companies' opinions and acceptance of global food safety initiative benchmarks after implementation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crandall, Phil; Van Loo, Ellen J; O'Bryan, Corliss A; Mauromoustakos, Andy; Yiannas, Frank; Dyenson, Natalie; Berdnik, Irina

    2012-09-01

    International attention has been focused on minimizing costs that may unnecessarily raise food prices. One important aspect to consider is the redundant and overlapping costs of food safety audits. The Global Food Safety Initiative (GFSI) has devised benchmarked schemes based on existing international food safety standards for use as a unifying standard accepted by many retailers. The present study was conducted to evaluate the impact of the decision made by Walmart Stores (Bentonville, AR) to require their suppliers to become GFSI compliant. An online survey of 174 retail suppliers was conducted to assess food suppliers' opinions of this requirement and the benefits suppliers realized when they transitioned from their previous food safety systems. The most common reason for becoming GFSI compliant was to meet customers' requirements; thus, supplier implementation of the GFSI standards was not entirely voluntary. Other reasons given for compliance were enhancing food safety and remaining competitive. About 54 % of food processing plants using GFSI benchmarked schemes followed the guidelines of Safe Quality Food 2000 and 37 % followed those of the British Retail Consortium. At the supplier level, 58 % followed Safe Quality Food 2000 and 31 % followed the British Retail Consortium. Respondents reported that the certification process took about 10 months. The most common reason for selecting a certain GFSI benchmarked scheme was because it was widely accepted by customers (retailers). Four other common reasons were (i) the standard has a good reputation in the industry, (ii) the standard was recommended by others, (iii) the standard is most often used in the industry, and (iv) the standard was required by one of their customers. Most suppliers agreed that increased safety of their products was required to comply with GFSI benchmarked schemes. They also agreed that the GFSI required a more carefully documented food safety management system, which often required

  19. Modeling the outflow of liquid with initial supercritical parameters using the relaxation model for condensation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lezhnin Sergey

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The two-temperature model of the outflow from a vessel with initial supercritical parameters of medium has been realized. The model uses thermodynamic non-equilibrium relaxation approach to describe phase transitions. Based on a new asymptotic model for computing the relaxation time, the outflow of water with supercritical initial pressure and super- and subcritical temperatures has been calculated.

  20. Global assessments of the state of the marine environment: Contemporary initiatives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bewers, J.M.; Boelens, R.G.V.

    1999-01-01

    A large number of assessments of regional marine areas have been conducted in recent years for a variety of purposes. Periodic reviews of the state of the marine environment have been undertaken by the United Nations Joint Group of Experts on the Scientific Aspects of Marine Environmental Protection (GESAMP). The most recent of these global assessments was published in 1990. The international adoption of a Global Programme of Action for the Protection of the Marine Environment from Land-Based Activities in 1995 has led to additional demand for regional assessments and a global review. The regional assessments are either completed or in train largely through mechanisms associated with the UNEP Regional Seas Programme. The global assessment has been assigned to GESAMP and incorporated into its plans for the preparation of a new global review to be completed in the year 2002. The Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, (IOC) the Scientific Committee for Oceanic Research (SCOR) and the Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment (SCOPE) are collaborating in a review of ocean science. The Global Environment Facility (GEF) recently approved funding for a 'Global International Waters Assessment' (GIWA) partly as a means of determining priorities within its International Waters Portfolio. This paper outlines the nature of, and contemporary activities within, these various assessments. (author)

  1. Individual Subjective Initiative Merge Model Based on Cellular Automaton

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yin-Jie Xu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The merge control models proposed for work zones are classified into two types (Hard Control Merge (HCM model and Soft Control Merge (SCM model according to their own control intensity and are compared with a new model, called Individual Subjective Initiative Merge (ISIM model, which is based on the linear lane-changing probability strategy in the merging area. The attention of this paper is paid to the positive impact of the individual subjective initiative for the whole traffic system. Three models (ISIM, HCM, and SCM are established and compared with each other by two order parameters, that is, system output and average vehicle travel time. Finally, numerical results show that both ISIM and SCM perform better than HCM. Compared with SCM, the output of ISIM is 20 vehicles per hour higher under the symmetric input condition and is more stable under the asymmetric input condition. Meanwhile, the average travel time of ISIM is 2000 time steps less under the oversaturated input condition.

  2. Three dimensional global modeling of atmospheric CO2. Final technical report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fung, I.; Hansen, J.; Rind, D.

    1983-01-01

    A modeling effort has been initiated to study the prospects of extracting information on carbon dioxide sources and sinks from observed CO 2 variations. The approach uses a three-dimensional global transport model, based on winds from a 3-D general circulation model (GCM), to advect CO 2 noninteractively, i.e., as a tracer, with specified sources and sinks of CO 2 at the surface. This report identifies the 3-D model employed in this study and discusses biosphere, ocean and fossil fuel sources and sinks. Some preliminary model results are presented. 14 figures

  3. Urban ecosystem modeling and global change: Potential for rational urban management and emissions mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Shaoqing; Chen, Bin; Fath, Brian D.

    2014-01-01

    Urbanization is a strong and extensive driver that causes environmental pollution and climate change from local to global scale. Modeling cities as ecosystems has been initiated by a wide range of scientists as a key to addressing challenging problems concomitant with urbanization. In this paper, ‘urban ecosystem modeling (UEM)’ is defined in an inter-disciplinary context to acquire a broad perception of urban ecological properties and their interactions with global change. Furthermore, state-of-the-art models of urban ecosystems are reviewed, categorized as top-down models (including materials/energy-oriented models and structure-oriented models), bottom-up models (including land use-oriented models and infrastructure-oriented models), or hybrid models thereof. Based on the review of UEM studies, a future framework for explicit UEM is proposed based the integration of UEM approaches of different scales, guiding more rational urban management and efficient emissions mitigation. - Highlights: • Urban ecosystems modeling (UEM) is defined in an interdisciplinary context. • State-of-the-art models for UEM are critically reviewed and compared. • An integrated framework for explicit UEM is proposed under global change. - State-of-the-art models of urban ecosystem modeling (UEM) are reviewed for rational urban management and emissions mitigation

  4. Global warming description using Daisyworld model with greenhouse gases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paiva, Susana L D; Savi, Marcelo A; Viola, Flavio M; Leiroz, Albino J K

    2014-11-01

    Daisyworld is an archetypal model of the earth that is able to describe the global regulation that can emerge from the interaction between life and environment. This article proposes a model based on the original Daisyworld considering greenhouse gases emission and absorption, allowing the description of the global warming phenomenon. Global and local analyses are discussed evaluating the influence of greenhouse gases in the planet dynamics. Numerical simulations are carried out showing the general qualitative behavior of the Daisyworld for different scenarios that includes solar luminosity variations and greenhouse gases effect. Nonlinear dynamics perspective is of concern discussing a way that helps the comprehension of the global warming phenomenon. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. A coupled chemotaxis-fluid model: Global existence

    KAUST Repository

    Liu, Jian-Guo; Lorz, Alexander

    2011-01-01

    We consider a model arising from biology, consisting of chemotaxis equations coupled to viscous incompressible fluid equations through transport and external forcing. Global existence of solutions to the Cauchy problem is investigated under certain conditions. Precisely, for the chemotaxis-Navier- Stokes system in two space dimensions, we obtain global existence for large data. In three space dimensions, we prove global existence of weak solutions for the chemotaxis-Stokes system with nonlinear diffusion for the cell density.© 2011 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  6. A coupled chemotaxis-fluid model: Global existence

    KAUST Repository

    Liu, Jian-Guo

    2011-09-01

    We consider a model arising from biology, consisting of chemotaxis equations coupled to viscous incompressible fluid equations through transport and external forcing. Global existence of solutions to the Cauchy problem is investigated under certain conditions. Precisely, for the chemotaxis-Navier- Stokes system in two space dimensions, we obtain global existence for large data. In three space dimensions, we prove global existence of weak solutions for the chemotaxis-Stokes system with nonlinear diffusion for the cell density.© 2011 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  7. A vertically resolved, global, gap-free ozone database for assessing or constraining global climate model simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. E. Bodeker

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available High vertical resolution ozone measurements from eight different satellite-based instruments have been merged with data from the global ozonesonde network to calculate monthly mean ozone values in 5° latitude zones. These ''Tier 0'' ozone number densities and ozone mixing ratios are provided on 70 altitude levels (1 to 70 km and on 70 pressure levels spaced ~ 1 km apart (878.4 hPa to 0.046 hPa. The Tier 0 data are sparse and do not cover the entire globe or altitude range. To provide a gap-free database, a least squares regression model is fitted to the Tier 0 data and then evaluated globally. The regression model fit coefficients are expanded in Legendre polynomials to account for latitudinal structure, and in Fourier series to account for seasonality. Regression model fit coefficient patterns, which are two dimensional fields indexed by latitude and month of the year, from the N-th vertical level serve as an initial guess for the fit at the N + 1-th vertical level. The initial guess field for the first fit level (20 km/58.2 hPa was derived by applying the regression model to total column ozone fields. Perturbations away from the initial guess are captured through the Legendre and Fourier expansions. By applying a single fit at each level, and using the approach of allowing the regression fits to change only slightly from one level to the next, the regression is less sensitive to measurement anomalies at individual stations or to individual satellite-based instruments. Particular attention is paid to ensuring that the low ozone abundances in the polar regions are captured. By summing different combinations of contributions from different regression model basis functions, four different ''Tier 1'' databases have been compiled for different intended uses. This database is suitable for assessing ozone fields from chemistry-climate model simulations or for providing the ozone boundary conditions for global climate model simulations that do not

  8. Global asymptotic stability of density dependent integral population projection models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rebarber, Richard; Tenhumberg, Brigitte; Townley, Stuart

    2012-02-01

    Many stage-structured density dependent populations with a continuum of stages can be naturally modeled using nonlinear integral projection models. In this paper, we study a trichotomy of global stability result for a class of density dependent systems which include a Platte thistle model. Specifically, we identify those systems parameters for which zero is globally asymptotically stable, parameters for which there is a positive asymptotically stable equilibrium, and parameters for which there is no asymptotically stable equilibrium. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Global model for the lithospheric strength and effective elastic thickness

    OpenAIRE

    Magdala Tesauro; Mikhail Kaban; S. A. P. L. Cloetingh

    2013-01-01

    Global distribution of the strength and effective elastic thickness (Te) of the lithosphere are estimated using physical parameters from recent crustal and lithospheric models. For the Te estimation we apply a new approach, which provides a possibility to take into account variations of Young modulus (E) within the lithosphere. In view of the large uncertainties affecting strength estimates, we evaluate global strength and Te distributions for possible end-member ‘hard’ (HRM) and a ‘soft’ (SR...

  10. Stabilising the global greenhouse. A simulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Michaelis, P.

    1993-01-01

    This paper investigates the economic implications of a comprehensive approach to greenhouse policies that strives to stabilise the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases at an ecolocially determined threshold level. In a theoretical optimisation model conditions for an efficient allocation of abatement effort among pollutants and over time are derived. The model is empirically specified and adapted to a dynamic Gams-algorithm. By various simulation runs for the period of 1990 to 2110, the economics of greenhouse gas accumulation are explored. In particular, the long-run cost associated with the above stabilisation target are evaluated for three different policy scenarios: i) A comprehensive approach that covers all major greenhouse gases simultaneously, ii) a piecemeal approach that is limited to reducing CO 2 emissions, and iii) a ten-year moratorium that postpones abatement effort until new scientific evidence on the greenhouse effect will become available. Comparing the simulation results suggests that a piecemeal approach would considerably increase total cost, whereas a ten-year moratorium might be reasonable even if the probability of 'good news' is comparatively small. (orig.)

  11. Global gene expression analysis of canine osteosarcoma stem cells reveals a novel role for COX-2 in tumour initiation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pang, Lisa Y; Gatenby, Emma L; Kamida, Ayako; Whitelaw, Bruce A; Hupp, Ted R; Argyle, David J

    2014-01-01

    Osteosarcoma is the most common primary bone tumour of both children and dogs. It is an aggressive tumour in both species with a rapid clinical course leading ultimately to metastasis. In dogs and children distant metastasis occurs in >80% of individuals treated by surgery alone. Both canine and human osteosarcoma has been shown to contain a sub-population of cancer stem cells (CSCs), which may drive tumour growth, recurrence and metastasis, suggesting that naturally occurring canine osteosarcoma could act as a preclinical model for the human disease. Here we report the successful isolation of CSCs from primary canine osteosarcoma, as well as established cell lines. We show that these cells can form tumourspheres, and demonstrate relative resistance to chemotherapy. We demonstrate similar results for the human osteosarcma cell lines, U2OS and SAOS2. Utilizing the Affymetrix canine microarray, we are able to definitively show that there are significant differences in global gene expression profiles of isolated osteosarcoma stem cells and the daughter adherent cells. We identified 13,221 significant differences (p = 0.05), and significantly, COX-2 was expressed 141-fold more in CSC spheres than daughter adherent cells. To study the role of COX-2 expression in CSCs we utilized the COX-2 inhibitors meloxicam and mavacoxib. We found that COX-2 inhibition had no effect on CSC growth, or resistance to chemotherapy. However inhibition of COX-2 in daughter cells prevented sphere formation, indicating a potential significant role for COX-2 in tumour initiation.

  12. Global gene expression analysis of canine osteosarcoma stem cells reveals a novel role for COX-2 in tumour initiation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisa Y Pang

    Full Text Available Osteosarcoma is the most common primary bone tumour of both children and dogs. It is an aggressive tumour in both species with a rapid clinical course leading ultimately to metastasis. In dogs and children distant metastasis occurs in >80% of individuals treated by surgery alone. Both canine and human osteosarcoma has been shown to contain a sub-population of cancer stem cells (CSCs, which may drive tumour growth, recurrence and metastasis, suggesting that naturally occurring canine osteosarcoma could act as a preclinical model for the human disease. Here we report the successful isolation of CSCs from primary canine osteosarcoma, as well as established cell lines. We show that these cells can form tumourspheres, and demonstrate relative resistance to chemotherapy. We demonstrate similar results for the human osteosarcma cell lines, U2OS and SAOS2. Utilizing the Affymetrix canine microarray, we are able to definitively show that there are significant differences in global gene expression profiles of isolated osteosarcoma stem cells and the daughter adherent cells. We identified 13,221 significant differences (p = 0.05, and significantly, COX-2 was expressed 141-fold more in CSC spheres than daughter adherent cells. To study the role of COX-2 expression in CSCs we utilized the COX-2 inhibitors meloxicam and mavacoxib. We found that COX-2 inhibition had no effect on CSC growth, or resistance to chemotherapy. However inhibition of COX-2 in daughter cells prevented sphere formation, indicating a potential significant role for COX-2 in tumour initiation.

  13. Modeling the Effect of Oil Price on Global Fertilizer Prices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P-Y. Chen (Ping-Yu); C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); C-C. Chen (Chi-Chung); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThe main purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effect of crude oil price on global fertilizer prices in both the mean and volatility. The endogenous structural breakpoint unit root test, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, and alternative volatility models, including the

  14. Toward an Integrative Model of Global Business Strategy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Xin

    fragmentation-integration-fragmentation-integration upward spiral. In response to the call for integrative approach to strategic management research, we propose an integrative model of global business strategy that aims at integrating not only strategy and IB but also the different paradigms within the strategy...... field. We also discuss the merit and limitation of our model....

  15. Assessing flood risk at the global scale: model setup, results, and sensitivity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, Philip J; Jongman, Brenden; Weiland, Frederiek Sperna; Winsemius, Hessel C; Bouwman, Arno; Ligtvoet, Willem; Van Beek, Rens; Bierkens, Marc F P

    2013-01-01

    Globally, economic losses from flooding exceeded $19 billion in 2012, and are rising rapidly. Hence, there is an increasing need for global-scale flood risk assessments, also within the context of integrated global assessments. We have developed and validated a model cascade for producing global flood risk maps, based on numerous flood return-periods. Validation results indicate that the model simulates interannual fluctuations in flood impacts well. The cascade involves: hydrological and hydraulic modelling; extreme value statistics; inundation modelling; flood impact modelling; and estimating annual expected impacts. The initial results estimate global impacts for several indicators, for example annual expected exposed population (169 million); and annual expected exposed GDP ($1383 billion). These results are relatively insensitive to the extreme value distribution employed to estimate low frequency flood volumes. However, they are extremely sensitive to the assumed flood protection standard; developing a database of such standards should be a research priority. Also, results are sensitive to the use of two different climate forcing datasets. The impact model can easily accommodate new, user-defined, impact indicators. We envisage several applications, for example: identifying risk hotspots; calculating macro-scale risk for the insurance industry and large companies; and assessing potential benefits (and costs) of adaptation measures. (letter)

  16. 77 FR 58412 - Meeting of the Global Justice Information Sharing Initiative Federal Advisory Committee

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-20

    ... support of the Administration's justice priorities. The GAC will guide and monitor the development of the Global information sharing concept. It will advise the Assistant Attorney General, OJP; the Attorney...

  17. 76 FR 13226 - Meeting of the Department of Justice Global Justice Information Sharing Initiative Federal...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-10

    ... coordination of national policy, practices, and technical solutions in support of the Administration's justice priorities. The GAC will guide and monitor the development of the Global information sharing concept. It will...

  18. Combined discriminative global and generative local models for visual tracking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Liujun; Zhao, Qingjie; Chen, Yanming; Lv, Peng

    2016-03-01

    It is a challenging task to develop an effective visual tracking algorithm due to factors such as pose variation, rotation, and so on. Combined discriminative global and generative local appearance models are proposed to address this problem. Specifically, we develop a compact global object representation by extracting the low-frequency coefficients of the color and texture of the object based on two-dimensional discrete cosine transform. Then, with the global appearance representation, we learn a discriminative metric classifier in an online fashion to differentiate the target object from its background, which is very important to robustly indicate the changes in appearance. Second, we develop a new generative local model that exploits the scale invariant feature transform and its spatial geometric information. To make use of the advantages of the global discriminative model and the generative local model, we incorporate them into Bayesian inference framework. In this framework, the complementary models help the tracker locate the target more accurately. Furthermore, we use different mechanisms to update global and local templates to capture appearance changes. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach performs favorably against state-of-the-art methods in terms of accuracy.

  19. Interdecadal variability in a global coupled model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Storch, J.S. von.

    1994-01-01

    Interdecadal variations are studied in a 325-year simulation performed by a coupled atmosphere - ocean general circulation model. The patterns obtained in this study may be considered as characteristic patterns for interdecadal variations. 1. The atmosphere: Interdecadal variations have no preferred time scales, but reveal well-organized spatial structures. They appear as two modes, one is related with variations of the tropical easterlies and the other with the Southern Hemisphere westerlies. Both have red spectra. The amplitude of the associated wind anomalies is largest in the upper troposphere. The associated temperature anomalies are in thermal-wind balance with the zonal winds and are out-of-phase between the troposphere and the lower stratosphere. 2. The Pacific Ocean: The dominant mode in the Pacific appears to be wind-driven in the midlatitudes and is related to air-sea interaction processes during one stage of the oscillation in the tropics. Anomalies of this mode propagate westward in the tropics and the northward (southwestward) in the North (South) Pacific on a time scale of about 10 to 20 years. (orig.)

  20. Toward GEOS-6, A Global Cloud System Resolving Atmospheric Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Putman, William M.

    2010-01-01

    NASA is committed to observing and understanding the weather and climate of our home planet through the use of multi-scale modeling systems and space-based observations. Global climate models have evolved to take advantage of the influx of multi- and many-core computing technologies and the availability of large clusters of multi-core microprocessors. GEOS-6 is a next-generation cloud system resolving atmospheric model that will place NASA at the forefront of scientific exploration of our atmosphere and climate. Model simulations with GEOS-6 will produce a realistic representation of our atmosphere on the scale of typical satellite observations, bringing a visual comprehension of model results to a new level among the climate enthusiasts. In preparation for GEOS-6, the agency's flagship Earth System Modeling Framework [JDl] has been enhanced to support cutting-edge high-resolution global climate and weather simulations. Improvements include a cubed-sphere grid that exposes parallelism; a non-hydrostatic finite volume dynamical core, and algorithm designed for co-processor technologies, among others. GEOS-6 represents a fundamental advancement in the capability of global Earth system models. The ability to directly compare global simulations at the resolution of spaceborne satellite images will lead to algorithm improvements and better utilization of space-based observations within the GOES data assimilation system

  1. Reducing the global threat of radiological terrorism in Central Asia and Caucus regions. The global threat reduction initiative approach to radioactive source security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, E.

    2010-01-01

    The security of radioactive sources is of worldwide concern, due to their wide use in civilian commerce and the potentially devastating effects of their misuse. In cooperation with host countries and international partners, the Global Threat Reduction Initiative has utilized a proven process for providing technical and financial assistance to protect radioactive sources in diverse uses and unique circumstances at hundreds of sites worldwide. The mission of the Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration's program includes reducing the risk posed by vulnerable radiological materials that could be used in a Radioactive Dispersal Device). The program's objectives are to identify, consolidate, secure, and/or dispose of high-activity radiological materials to prevent their theft and malicious use. The Global Threat Reduction Initiative Program's scope is global, with projects in over 100 countries at more than 755 radiological sites, including industrial, medical and commercial facilities. In addition to working bilaterally, the Program works closely with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and other partner countries. (author)

  2. Global dynamics of a dengue epidemic mathematical model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cai Liming [Department of Mathematics, Xinyang Normal University, Xinyang 464000 (China); Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Academia Sinica, Beijing 100080 (China)], E-mail: lmcai06@yahoo.com.cn; Guo Shumin [Beijing Institute of Information Control, Beijing 100037 (China); Li, XueZhi [Department of Mathematics, Xinyang Normal University, Xinyang 464000 (China); Ghosh, Mini [School of Mathematics and Computer Application, Thapar University, Patiala 147004 (India)

    2009-11-30

    The paper investigates the global stability of a dengue epidemic model with saturation and bilinear incidence. The constant human recruitment rate and exponential natural death, as well as vector population with asymptotically constant population, are incorporated into the model. The model exhibits two equilibria, namely, the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium. The stability of these two equilibria is controlled by the threshold number R{sub 0}. It is shown that if R{sub 0} is less than one, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and in such a case the endemic equilibrium does not exist; if R{sub 0} is greater than one, then the disease persists and the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable.

  3. Global dynamics of a dengue epidemic mathematical model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cai Liming; Guo Shumin; Li, XueZhi; Ghosh, Mini

    2009-01-01

    The paper investigates the global stability of a dengue epidemic model with saturation and bilinear incidence. The constant human recruitment rate and exponential natural death, as well as vector population with asymptotically constant population, are incorporated into the model. The model exhibits two equilibria, namely, the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium. The stability of these two equilibria is controlled by the threshold number R 0 . It is shown that if R 0 is less than one, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and in such a case the endemic equilibrium does not exist; if R 0 is greater than one, then the disease persists and the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable.

  4. Archaeomagnetic Dating in Europe Using a Global Geomagnetic Field Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lodge, A.; Suttie, N.; Holme, R.; Shaw, J.; Hill, M. J.; Linford, P.

    2009-12-01

    Using up-to-date archaeomagnetic data from Europe and CALS7K.2 as an apriori model, we produce a global geomagnetic field model to be used for archaeomagnetic dating in Europe. More details on the modelling process will be presented elsewhere (in session GP12, abstract: Geophysical insights from archaeomagnetic dating). Here we apply the global geomagnetic field model to a series of test cases from both recently published data and unpublished data to demonstrate its application to archaeomagnetic dating. We compare the results produced using our model with those from the spherical cap harmonic model, SCHA.DIF.3K (Pavón-Carrasco et al., 2009), the global geomagnetic field model, ARCH3K.1 (Korte et al., 2009) and those produced using the palaeosecular variation curves generated using Bayesian statistics (Lanos, 2004). We include examples which emphasise the importance of using three component data (declination, inclination and intensity) to produce an improved archaeomagnetic date. In addition to the careful selection of an appropriate model for archaeomagnetic dating, the choice of errors on the model curves is vital for providing archaeologists with an age range of possible dates. We discuss how best to constrain the errors on the model curves and alternative ways to the mathematical method of Lanos (2004) for producing an archaeomagnetic date for archaeologists.

  5. A high-resolution global flood hazard model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sampson, Christopher C.; Smith, Andrew M.; Bates, Paul B.; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Freer, Jim E.

    2015-09-01

    Floods are a natural hazard that affect communities worldwide, but to date the vast majority of flood hazard research and mapping has been undertaken by wealthy developed nations. As populations and economies have grown across the developing world, so too has demand from governments, businesses, and NGOs for modeled flood hazard data in these data-scarce regions. We identify six key challenges faced when developing a flood hazard model that can be applied globally and present a framework methodology that leverages recent cross-disciplinary advances to tackle each challenge. The model produces return period flood hazard maps at ˜90 m resolution for the whole terrestrial land surface between 56°S and 60°N, and results are validated against high-resolution government flood hazard data sets from the UK and Canada. The global model is shown to capture between two thirds and three quarters of the area determined to be at risk in the benchmark data without generating excessive false positive predictions. When aggregated to ˜1 km, mean absolute error in flooded fraction falls to ˜5%. The full complexity global model contains an automatically parameterized subgrid channel network, and comparison to both a simplified 2-D only variant and an independently developed pan-European model shows the explicit inclusion of channels to be a critical contributor to improved model performance. While careful processing of existing global terrain data sets enables reasonable model performance in urban areas, adoption of forthcoming next-generation global terrain data sets will offer the best prospect for a step-change improvement in model performance.

  6. Modeling subsurface stormflow initiation in low-relief landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopp, Luisa; Vaché, Kellie B.; Rhett Jackson, C.; McDonnell, Jeffrey J.

    2015-04-01

    Shallow lateral subsurface flow as a runoff generating mechanism at the hillslope scale has mostly been studied in steeper terrain with typical hillside angles of 10 - 45 degrees. These studies have shown that subsurface stormflow is often initiated at the interface between a permeable upper soil layer and a lower conductivity impeding layer, e.g. a B horizon or bedrock. Many studies have identified thresholds of event size and soil moisture states that need to be exceeded before subsurface stormflow is initiated. However, subsurface stormflow generation on low-relief hillslopes has been much less studied. Here we present a modeling study that investigates the initiation of subsurface stormflow on low-relief hillslopes in the Upper Coastal Plain of South Carolina, USA. Hillslopes in this region typically have slope angles of 2-5 degrees. Topsoils are sandy, underlain by a low-conductivity sandy clay loam Bt horizon. Subsurface stormflow has only been intercepted occasionally in a 120 m long trench, and often subsurface flow was not well correlated with stream signals, suggesting a disconnect between subsurface flow on the hillslopes and stream flow. We therefore used a hydrologic model to better understand which conditions promote the initiation of subsurface flow in this landscape, addressing following questions: Is there a threshold event size and soil moisture state for producing lateral subsurface flow? What role does the spatial pattern of depth to the impeding clay layer play for subsurface stormflow dynamics? We reproduced a section of a hillslope, for which high-resolution topographic data and depth to clay measurements were available, in the hydrologic model HYDRUS-3D. Soil hydraulic parameters were based on experimentally-derived data. The threshold analysis was first performed using hourly climate data records for 2009-2010 from the study site to drive the simulation. For this period also trench measurements of subsurface flow were available. In addition

  7. A situational analysis of pharmacovigilance plans in the Global Fund Malaria and U.S. President's Malaria Initiative proposals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stergachis, Andy; Bartlein, Rebecca J K; Dodoo, Alexander; Nwokike, Jude; Kachur, S Patrick

    2010-05-30

    Pharmacovigilance programmes can monitor and help ensure the safe use of medicines that are critical to the success of global public health programmes. The widespread deployment of artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) by national malaria control programmes as part of the overall Global Malaria Action Plan for malaria control to elimination and eradication makes ACT an excellent candidate for pharmacovigilance activities. In 2008, The Roll Back Malaria partnership issued guidelines for inclusion of pharmacovigilance in Global Fund and other related proposals. In light of this recommendation and the rapid scale-up of ACT worldwide, an analysis of Global Fund Round 8 proposals and the President's Malaria Initiative (PMI) 2009 Malaria Operational Plans was conducted to assess if and how pharmacovigilance has been incorporated into countries' national malaria plans and donor budget requests. The Global Fund-Malaria Round 8 proposals for the 26 countries and the PMI Malaria Operational Plans (MOPs) for fiscal year 2009 for the 15 countries that were approved and received funding from either the Global Fund-Malaria Round 8 or PMI were accessed through the programme websites. The analysis consisted of conducting word counts and key word in context analyses of each proposal and plan. Twelve out of 26 (46%) of the Global Fund proposals mentioned that established pharmacovigilance systems were present in their countries. Four of the fifteen PMI MOPs (27%) mentioned that established pharmacovigilance systems were present in their countries. Only seven of the 26 (27%) Global Fund proposals included a request for funding for new or current pharmacovigilance activities. Seven of 15 (47%) MOPs included a request for funding for pharmacovigilance activities. There were relatively few requests for funding for pharmacovigilance activities, demonstrating a lack of emphasis placed on pharmacovigilance systems in recipient countries. The findings stress the need for more active

  8. Impacts of model initialization on an integrated surface water - groundwater model

    KAUST Repository

    Ajami, Hoori; McCabe, Matthew; Evans, Jason P.

    2015-01-01

    Integrated hydrologic models characterize catchment responses by coupling the subsurface flow with land surface processes. One of the major areas of uncertainty in such models is the specification of the initial condition and its influence

  9. Modelling of the initial stage of the surface discharge development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gibalov, V.; Pietsch, G.

    1998-01-01

    Computer modelling of the initial stage of the surface discharge was performed by solving numerically the coupled continuity, the Poisson and Townsend ionization equations and taking into account the ionization, attachment and detachment processes. The potential distribution at the dielectric surface and at the boundaries which surround the integration region have been calculated with the charge-image method in a 3D approach. In order to eliminate numerical diffusion effects, the solution of the continuity equation was corrected using a flux correction transport routine. At the positive voltage the development of the discharge channel is determined mainly by the shape of the electrode tip. At the negative voltage the following phases of the discharge may be distinguished: the initial phase, the cathode directed streamer phase resulting in the cathode layer formation, and the propagating phase. The physical processes governing each discharge phase are described in detail. (J.U.)

  10. WHE-PAGER Project: A new initiative in estimating global building inventory and its seismic vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, K.A.; Jaiswal, K.S.; Wald, D.J.; Greene, M.; Comartin, Craig

    2008-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquake’s Response (PAGER) Project and the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute’s World Housing Encyclopedia (WHE) are creating a global database of building stocks and their earthquake vulnerability. The WHE already represents a growing, community-developed public database of global housing and its detailed structural characteristics. It currently contains more than 135 reports on particular housing types in 40 countries. The WHE-PAGER effort extends the WHE in several ways: (1) by addressing non-residential construction; (2) by quantifying the prevalence of each building type in both rural and urban areas; (3) by addressing day and night occupancy patterns, (4) by adding quantitative vulnerability estimates from judgment or statistical observation; and (5) by analytically deriving alternative vulnerability estimates using in part laboratory testing.

  11. Paladin Enterprises: Monolithic particle physics models global climate.

    CERN Multimedia

    2002-01-01

    Paladin Enterprises presents a monolithic particle model of the universe which will be used by them to build an economical fusion energy system. The model is an extension of the work done by James Clerk Maxwell. Essentially, gravity is unified with electro-magnetic forces and shown to be a product of a closed loop current system, i.e. a particle - monolithic or sub atomic. This discovery explains rapid global climate changes which are evident in the geological record and also provides an explanation for recent changes in the global climate.

  12. Asthma in pregnancy: association between the Asthma Control Test and the Global Initiative for Asthma classification and comparisons with spirometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Araujo, Georgia Véras; Leite, Débora F B; Rizzo, José A; Sarinho, Emanuel S C

    2016-08-01

    The aim of this study was to identify a possible association between the assessment of clinical asthma control using the Asthma Control Test (ACT) and the Global Initiative for Asthma (GINA) classification and to perform comparisons with values of spirometry. Through this cross-sectional study, 103 pregnant women with asthma were assessed in the period from October 2010 to October 2013 in the asthma pregnancy clinic at the Clinical Hospital of the Federal University of Pernambuco. Questionnaires concerning the level of asthma control were administered using the Global Initiative for Asthma classification, the Asthma Control Test validated for asthmatic expectant mothers and spirometry; all three methods of assessing asthma control were performed during the same visit between the twenty-first and twenty-seventh weeks of pregnancy. There was a significant association between clinical asthma control assessment using the Asthma Control Test and the Global Initiative for Asthma classification (pspirometry. This study shows that both the Global Initiative for Asthma classification and the Asthma Control Test can be used for asthmatic expectant mothers to assess the clinical control of asthma, especially at the end of the second trimester, which is assumed to be the period of worsening asthma exacerbations during pregnancy. We highlight the importance of the Asthma Control Test as a subjective instrument with easy application, easy interpretation and good reproducibility that does not require spirometry to assess the level of asthma control and can be used in the primary care of asthmatic expectant mothers. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI): Future Perspectives and Need for a New Generation of Inactivated Poliovirus Vaccine

    OpenAIRE

    VASHISHTHA, Vipin; NAVEEN, Thacker

    2010-01-01

    More than two decade-old Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) has finally tasted success and wild poliovirus is now on the verge of eradication. The pre-eradication era was full of challenges and a great learning experience for all those involved with this tedious process. Many new phenomena emerged and new information about poliovirus learned during this campaign. Many new developments such as vaccine-derived polioviruses (VDPVs) were not anticipated and resulted in serious thinking re...

  14. Global distribution of urban parameters derived from high-resolution global datasets for weather modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawano, N.; Varquez, A. C. G.; Dong, Y.; Kanda, M.

    2016-12-01

    Numerical model such as Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with single-layer Urban Canopy Model (WRF-UCM) is one of the powerful tools to investigate urban heat island. Urban parameters such as average building height (Have), plain area index (λp) and frontal area index (λf), are necessary inputs for the model. In general, these parameters are uniformly assumed in WRF-UCM but this leads to unrealistic urban representation. Distributed urban parameters can also be incorporated into WRF-UCM to consider a detail urban effect. The problem is that distributed building information is not readily available for most megacities especially in developing countries. Furthermore, acquiring real building parameters often require huge amount of time and money. In this study, we investigated the potential of using globally available satellite-captured datasets for the estimation of the parameters, Have, λp, and λf. Global datasets comprised of high spatial resolution population dataset (LandScan by Oak Ridge National Laboratory), nighttime lights (NOAA), and vegetation fraction (NASA). True samples of Have, λp, and λf were acquired from actual building footprints from satellite images and 3D building database of Tokyo, New York, Paris, Melbourne, Istanbul, Jakarta and so on. Regression equations were then derived from the block-averaging of spatial pairs of real parameters and global datasets. Results show that two regression curves to estimate Have and λf from the combination of population and nightlight are necessary depending on the city's level of development. An index which can be used to decide which equation to use for a city is the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). On the other hand, λphas less dependence on GDP but indicated a negative relationship to vegetation fraction. Finally, a simplified but precise approximation of urban parameters through readily-available, high-resolution global datasets and our derived regressions can be utilized to estimate a

  15. Initial CGE Model Results Summary Exogenous and Endogenous Variables Tests

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edwards, Brian Keith [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Boero, Riccardo [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Rivera, Michael Kelly [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-08-07

    The following discussion presents initial results of tests of the most recent version of the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model developed by Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The intent of this is to test and assess the model’s behavioral properties. The test evaluated whether the predicted impacts are reasonable from a qualitative perspective. This issue is whether the predicted change, be it an increase or decrease in other model variables, is consistent with prior economic intuition and expectations about the predicted change. One of the purposes of this effort is to determine whether model changes are needed in order to improve its behavior qualitatively and quantitatively.

  16. Regression Model to Predict Global Solar Irradiance in Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hairuniza Ahmed Kutty

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A novel regression model is developed to estimate the monthly global solar irradiance in Malaysia. The model is developed based on different available meteorological parameters, including temperature, cloud cover, rain precipitate, relative humidity, wind speed, pressure, and gust speed, by implementing regression analysis. This paper reports on the details of the analysis of the effect of each prediction parameter to identify the parameters that are relevant to estimating global solar irradiance. In addition, the proposed model is compared in terms of the root mean square error (RMSE, mean bias error (MBE, and the coefficient of determination (R2 with other models available from literature studies. Seven models based on single parameters (PM1 to PM7 and five multiple-parameter models (PM7 to PM12 are proposed. The new models perform well, with RMSE ranging from 0.429% to 1.774%, R2 ranging from 0.942 to 0.992, and MBE ranging from −0.1571% to 0.6025%. In general, cloud cover significantly affects the estimation of global solar irradiance. However, cloud cover in Malaysia lacks sufficient influence when included into multiple-parameter models although it performs fairly well in single-parameter prediction models.

  17. Global Modeling Study of the Bioavailable Atmospheric Iron Supply to the Global Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myriokefalitakis, S.; Krol, M. C.; van Noije, T.; Le Sager, P.

    2017-12-01

    Atmospheric deposition of trace constituents acts as a nutrient source to the open ocean and affect marine ecosystem. Dust is known as a major source of nutrients to the global ocean, but only a fraction of these nutrients is released in a bioavailable form that can be assimilated by the marine biota. Iron (Fe) is a key micronutrient that significantly modulates gross primary production in the High-Nutrient-Low-Chlorophyll (HNLC) oceans, where macronutrients like nitrate are abundant, but primary production is limited by Fe scarcity. The global atmospheric Fe cycle is here parameterized in the state-of-the-art global Earth System Model EC-Earth. The model takes into account the primary emissions of both insoluble and soluble Fe forms, associated with mineral dust and combustion aerosols. The impact of atmospheric acidity and organic ligands on mineral dissolution processes, is parameterized based on updated experimental and theoretical findings. Model results are also evaluated against available observations. Overall, the link between the labile Fe atmospheric deposition and atmospheric composition changes is here demonstrated and quantified. This work has been financed by the Marie-Curie H2020-MSCA-IF-2015 grant (ID 705652) ODEON (Online DEposition over OceaNs; modeling the effect of air pollution on ocean bio-geochemistry in an Earth System Model).

  18. Nível de disclosure nos relatórios de sustentabilidade em conformidade com o Global Reporting Initiative (GRI = Level of disclosure in sustainability reports in compliance with Global Reporting Initiative (GRI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela Di Domenico

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available O objetivo do artigo é analisar o nível de disclosure nos relatórios de sustentabilidade em conformidade com o Global Reporting Initiative (GRI nas empresas listadas na BM&FBovespa. Nesse sentido, realizou-se pesquisa descritiva com procedimentos de coleta documental e abordagem quantitativa. A amostra analisada ficou composta por 93 empresas listadas na BM&FBovespa, que divulgaram o relatório de sustentabilidade no ano de 2014 em conformidade com o modelo GRI. Os resultados mostram que à medida em que há maior complexidade nas informações, que compreendem os grupos de indicadores apresentados nos relatórios de sustentabilidade, reduz o nível de evidenciação pelas empresas. Com relação ao nível de evidenciação, percebe-se que o maior grupo de empresas se concentra com baixa evidenciação. Representa cerca de 30% das empresas analisadas, atendendo até 50 itens dos 150 que o relatório propõe. Quanto ao setor econômico, utilidade pública apresentou maior nível de evidenciação nos relatórios de sustentabilidade em conformidade com o modelo GRI. Conclui-se que, embora tenha havido aumento na divulgação dos relatórios de sustentabilidade, as empresas ainda carecem de adaptação para atender aos indicadores do GRI, melhorando a qualidade dos relatórios divulgados e elevando a transparência aos diversos públicos de interesse. The objective of the study is to analyze the level of disclosure in the sustainability reports in compliance with the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI in the companies listed on the BM&FBovespa. In this sense, a descriptive research was carried out with procedures of documentary collection and quantitative approach. The sample analyzed was composed of 93 companies listed on the BM&FBovespa, which published the sustainability report in 2014 in compliance with the GRI model. The results show that to the extent that there is more complexity in the information that comprises the groups of indicators

  19. Seismic waves and earthquakes in a global monolithic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roubíček, Tomáš

    2018-03-01

    The philosophy that a single "monolithic" model can "asymptotically" replace and couple in a simple elegant way several specialized models relevant on various Earth layers is presented and, in special situations, also rigorously justified. In particular, global seismicity and tectonics is coupled to capture, e.g., (here by a simplified model) ruptures of lithospheric faults generating seismic waves which then propagate through the solid-like mantle and inner core both as shear (S) or pressure (P) waves, while S-waves are suppressed in the fluidic outer core and also in the oceans. The "monolithic-type" models have the capacity to describe all the mentioned features globally in a unified way together with corresponding interfacial conditions implicitly involved, only when scaling its parameters appropriately in different Earth's layers. Coupling of seismic waves with seismic sources due to tectonic events is thus an automatic side effect. The global ansatz is here based, rather for an illustration, only on a relatively simple Jeffreys' viscoelastic damageable material at small strains whose various scaling (limits) can lead to Boger's viscoelastic fluid or even to purely elastic (inviscid) fluid. Self-induced gravity field, Coriolis, centrifugal, and tidal forces are counted in our global model, as well. The rigorous mathematical analysis as far as the existence of solutions, convergence of the mentioned scalings, and energy conservation is briefly presented.

  20. Global Land Use Regression Model for Nitrogen Dioxide Air Pollution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larkin, Andrew; Geddes, Jeffrey A; Martin, Randall V; Xiao, Qingyang; Liu, Yang; Marshall, Julian D; Brauer, Michael; Hystad, Perry

    2017-06-20

    Nitrogen dioxide is a common air pollutant with growing evidence of health impacts independent of other common pollutants such as ozone and particulate matter. However, the worldwide distribution of NO 2 exposure and associated impacts on health is still largely uncertain. To advance global exposure estimates we created a global nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) land use regression model for 2011 using annual measurements from 5,220 air monitors in 58 countries. The model captured 54% of global NO 2 variation, with a mean absolute error of 3.7 ppb. Regional performance varied from R 2 = 0.42 (Africa) to 0.67 (South America). Repeated 10% cross-validation using bootstrap sampling (n = 10,000) demonstrated a robust performance with respect to air monitor sampling in North America, Europe, and Asia (adjusted R 2 within 2%) but not for Africa and Oceania (adjusted R 2 within 11%) where NO 2 monitoring data are sparse. The final model included 10 variables that captured both between and within-city spatial gradients in NO 2 concentrations. Variable contributions differed between continental regions, but major roads within 100 m and satellite-derived NO 2 were consistently the strongest predictors. The resulting model can be used for global risk assessments and health studies, particularly in countries without existing NO 2 monitoring data or models.

  1. Voluntary initiatives in global value chains : Towards labour-led social upgrading?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    K.A. Siegmann (Karin Astrid); J. Merk (Jeroen); P. Knorringa (Peter)

    2014-01-01

    textabstractThe organization of production in global value chains (GVCs) has been accompanied by a rise of informal and insecure work. Yet, the role of labour agency has received scant attention in the GVC and related literatures. Selwyn (2013) therefore demands to shift attention towards engagement

  2. Voluntary initiatives in global value chains: towards labour-led social upgrading?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    K.A. Siegmann (Karin Astrid); P. Knorringa (Peter); J.J.S. Merk

    2014-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ The organization of production in global value chains (GVCs) has been accompanied by a rise of informal and insecure work. Yet, the role of labour agency has received scant attention in the GVC and related literatures. Selwyn (2013) therefore demands to shift

  3. International cooperative initiatives in global climate governance: Raising the ambition level or delegitimizing the UNFCCC?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Widerberg, O.E.; Pattberg, P.H.

    2015-01-01

    To close the gap between existing country pledges and the necessary ambition level to limit anthropogenic climate change to not more than 2°C average global temperature increase above pre-industrial levels, decision makers from both the public and private domain have started to explore a number of

  4. Synchronization Experiments With A Global Coupled Model of Intermediate Complexity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selten, Frank; Hiemstra, Paul; Shen, Mao-Lin

    2013-04-01

    In the super modeling approach an ensemble of imperfect models are connected through nudging terms that nudge the solution of each model to the solution of all other models in the ensemble. The goal is to obtain a synchronized state through a proper choice of connection strengths that closely tracks the trajectory of the true system. For the super modeling approach to be successful, the connections should be dense and strong enough for synchronization to occur. In this study we analyze the behavior of an ensemble of connected global atmosphere-ocean models of intermediate complexity. All atmosphere models are connected to the same ocean model through the surface fluxes of heat, water and momentum, the ocean is integrated using weighted averaged surface fluxes. In particular we analyze the degree of synchronization between the atmosphere models and the characteristics of the ensemble mean solution. The results are interpreted using a low order atmosphere-ocean toy model.

  5. On the use of tower-flux measurements to assess the performance of global ecosystem models

    Science.gov (United States)

    El Maayar, M.; Kucharik, C.

    2003-04-01

    Global ecosystem models are important tools for the study of biospheric processes and their responses to environmental changes. Such models typically translate knowledge, gained from local observations, into estimates of regional or even global outcomes of ecosystem processes. A typical test of ecosystem models consists of comparing their output against tower-flux measurements of land surface-atmosphere exchange of heat and mass. To perform such tests, models are typically run using detailed information on soil properties (texture, carbon content,...) and vegetation structure observed at the experimental site (e.g., vegetation height, vegetation phenology, leaf photosynthetic characteristics,...). In global simulations, however, earth's vegetation is typically represented by a limited number of plant functional types (PFT; group of plant species that have similar physiological and ecological characteristics). For each PFT (e.g., temperate broadleaf trees, boreal conifer evergreen trees,...), which can cover a very large area, a set of typical physiological and physical parameters are assigned. Thus, a legitimate question arises: How does the performance of a global ecosystem model run using detailed site-specific parameters compare with the performance of a less detailed global version where generic parameters are attributed to a group of vegetation species forming a PFT? To answer this question, we used a multiyear dataset, measured at two forest sites with contrasting environments, to compare seasonal and interannual variability of surface-atmosphere exchange of water and carbon predicted by the Integrated BIosphere Simulator-Dynamic Global Vegetation Model. Two types of simulations were, thus, performed: a) Detailed runs: observed vegetation characteristics (leaf area index, vegetation height,...) and soil carbon content, in addition to climate and soil type, are specified for model run; and b) Generic runs: when only observed climates and soil types at the

  6. Global GPS Ionospheric Modelling Using Spherical Harmonic Expansion Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Byung-Kyu Choi

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we developed a global ionosphere model based on measurements from a worldwide network of global positioning system (GPS. The total number of the international GPS reference stations for development of ionospheric model is about 100 and the spherical harmonic expansion approach as a mathematical method was used. In order to produce the ionospheric total electron content (TEC based on grid form, we defined spatial resolution of 2.0 degree and 5.0 degree in latitude and longitude, respectively. Two-dimensional TEC maps were constructed within the interval of one hour, and have a high temporal resolution compared to global ionosphere maps which are produced by several analysis centers. As a result, we could detect the sudden increase of TEC by processing GPS observables on 29 October, 2003 when the massive solar flare took place.

  7. Modeling global distribution of agricultural insecticides in surface waters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ippolito, Alessio; Kattwinkel, Mira; Rasmussen, Jes J; Schäfer, Ralf B; Fornaroli, Riccardo; Liess, Matthias

    2015-03-01

    Agricultural insecticides constitute a major driver of animal biodiversity loss in freshwater ecosystems. However, the global extent of their effects and the spatial extent of exposure remain largely unknown. We applied a spatially explicit model to estimate the potential for agricultural insecticide runoff into streams. Water bodies within 40% of the global land surface were at risk of insecticide runoff. We separated the influence of natural factors and variables under human control determining insecticide runoff. In the northern hemisphere, insecticide runoff presented a latitudinal gradient mainly driven by insecticide application rate; in the southern hemisphere, a combination of daily rainfall intensity, terrain slope, agricultural intensity and insecticide application rate determined the process. The model predicted the upper limit of observed insecticide exposure measured in water bodies (n = 82) in five different countries reasonably well. The study provides a global map of hotspots for insecticide contamination guiding future freshwater management and conservation efforts. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Multi-scale modelling of fatigue microcrack initiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Jia

    2013-01-01

    The thesis aims to improve the understanding and simulation of microcrack initiation induced by thermal fatigue and the induced crack network formation. The polycrystalline simulations allow the prediction of both macroscopic cyclic behavior and mean grain distributions of stress, plastic strain and number of cycles to microcrack initiation. Various aggregate meshes have been used, from the simplest ones using cubic grains up to a real 3D aggregate built thanks to many re-polishing and EBSD measurement sequences (Institut P', Poitiers). Tension-compression, cyclic shear and equi-biaxial loadings, with and without mean strain, have been considered. All the predictions are in qualitative agreement with many experimental observations obtained at various scales. The single crystal simulations allow us to predict the effect of slip localization in thin persistent slip bands (PSBs). Inside PSBs, vacancies are produced and annihilated because of cyclic dislocation interactions and may diffuse towards the surrounding matrix. This induces extrusion growth at the free surface of PSBs. Microcracking is modelled by cohesive zones located along the PSB - matrix interfaces. The predicted extrusion rates and numbers of cycles to microcrack initiation are in fair agreement with numerous experimental data concerning single and polycrystals, copper and 316L(N), under either air or inert environment. (author) [fr

  9. Modelling Global Pattern Formations for Collaborative Learning Environments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grappiolo, Corrado; Cheong, Yun-Gyung; Khaled, Rilla

    2012-01-01

    We present our research towards the design of a computational framework capable of modelling the formation and evolution of global patterns (i.e. group structures) in a population of social individuals. The framework is intended to be used in collaborative environments, e.g. social serious games...

  10. Empirical Models for the Estimation of Global Solar Radiation in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Empirical Models for the Estimation of Global Solar Radiation in Yola, Nigeria. ... and average daily wind speed (WS) for the interval of three years (2010 – 2012) measured using various instruments for Yola of recorded data collected from the Center for Atmospheric Research (CAR), Anyigba are presented and analyzed.

  11. Modeling Global Urbanization Supported by Nighttime Light Remote Sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Urbanization, a major driver of global change, profoundly impacts our physical and social world, for example, altering carbon cycling and climate. Understanding these consequences for better scientific insights and effective decision-making unarguably requires accurate information on urban extent and its spatial distributions. In this study, we developed a cluster-based method to estimate the optimal thresholds and map urban extents from the nighttime light remote sensing data, extended this method to the global domain by developing a computational method (parameterization) to estimate the key parameters in the cluster-based method, and built a consistent 20-year global urban map series to evaluate the time-reactive nature of global urbanization (e.g. 2000 in Fig. 1). Supported by urban maps derived from nightlights remote sensing data and socio-economic drivers, we developed an integrated modeling framework to project future urban expansion by integrating a top-down macro-scale statistical model with a bottom-up urban growth model. With the models calibrated and validated using historical data, we explored urban growth at the grid level (1-km) over the next two decades under a number of socio-economic scenarios. The derived spatiotemporal information of historical and potential future urbanization will be of great value with practical implications for developing adaptation and risk management measures for urban infrastructure, transportation, energy, and water systems when considered together with other factors such as climate variability and change, and high impact weather events.

  12. Global model for the lithospheric strength and effective elastic thickness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tesauro, M.; Kaban, M.K.; Cloetingh, S.A.P.L.

    2013-01-01

    Global distribution of the strength and effective elastic thickness (Te) of the lithosphere are estimated using physical parameters from recent crustal and lithospheric models. For the Te estimation we apply a new approach, which provides a possibility to take into account variations of Young

  13. Global vegetation change predicted by the modified Budyko model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Monserud, R.A.; Tchebakova, N.M.; Leemans, R. (US Department of Agriculture, Moscow, ID (United States). Intermountain Research Station, Forest Service)

    1993-09-01

    A modified Budyko global vegetation model is used to predict changes in global vegetation patterns resulting from climate change (CO[sub 2] doubling). Vegetation patterns are predicted using a model based on a dryness index and potential evaporation determined by solving radiation balance equations. Climate change scenarios are derived from predictions from four General Circulation Models (GCM's) of the atmosphere (GFDL, GISS, OSU, and UKMO). All four GCM scenarios show similar trends in vegetation shifts and in areas that remain stable, although the UKMO scenario predicts greater warming than the others. Climate change maps produced by all four GCM scenarios show good agreement with the current climate vegetation map for the globe as a whole, although over half of the vegetation classes show only poor to fair agreement. The most stable areas are Desert and Ice/Polar Desert. Because most of the predicted warming is concentrated in the Boreal and Temperate zones, vegetation there is predicted to undergo the greatest change. Most vegetation classes in the Subtropics and Tropics are predicted to expand. Any shift in the Tropics favouring either Forest over Savanna, or vice versa, will be determined by the magnitude of the increased precipitation accompanying global warming. Although the model predicts equilibrium conditions to which many plant species cannot adjust (through migration or microevolution) in the 50-100 y needed for CO[sub 2] doubling, it is not clear if projected global warming will result in drastic or benign vegetation change. 72 refs., 3 figs., 3 tabs.

  14. New Models of Hybrid Leadership in Global Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tonini, Donna C.; Burbules, Nicholas C.; Gunsalus, C. K.

    2016-01-01

    This manuscript highlights the development of a leadership preparation program known as the Nanyang Technological University Leadership Academy (NTULA), exploring the leadership challenges unique to a university undergoing rapid growth in a highly multicultural context, and the hybrid model of leadership it developed in response to globalization.…

  15. GLOBAL STABILITY AND PERIODIC SOLUTION OF A VIRAL DYNAMIC MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erhan COŞKUN

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract:In this paper, we consider the classical viral dynamic mathematical model. Global dynamics of the model is rigorously established. We prove that, if the basic reproduction number, the HIV infection is cleared from the T-cell population; if , the HIV infection persists. For an open set of parameter values, the chronic-infection equilibrium can be unstable and periodic solutions may exist. We establish parameter regions for which is globally stable. Keywords: Global stability, HIV infection; CD4+ T cells; Periodic solution Mathematics Subject Classifications (2000: 65L10, 34B05 BİR VİRAL DİNAMİK MODELİN GLOBAL KARARLILIĞI VE PERİYODİK ÇÖZÜMÜ Özet: Bu makalede klasik viral dinamik modeli ele aldık. Modelin global dinamikleri oluşturuldu. Eğer temel üretim sayısı olur ise HIV enfeksiyonu T hücre nüfusundan çıkartılır, eğer olursa HIV enfeksiyonu çıkartılamaz. Parametre değerlerinin açık bir kümesi için kronik enfeksiyon dengesi kararsızdır ve periyodik çözüm oluşabilir. ın global kararlı olduğu parametre bölgeleri oluşturuldu. Anahtar Kelimeler: Global Kararlılık, HIV enfeksiyon, CD4+ T hücreler, Periyodik çözüm

  16. The Global Classroom Video Conferencing Model and First Evaluations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Weitze, Charlotte Lærke; Ørngreen, Rikke; Levinsen, Karin

    2013-01-01

    pedagogical innovativeness, including collaborative and technological issues. The research is based on the Global Classroom Model as it is implemented and used at an adult learning center in Denmark (VUC Storstrøm). VUC Storstrøms (VUC) Global Classroom Model is an approach to video conferencing and e......Learning using campus-based teaching combined with laptop solutions for students at home. After a couple of years of campus-to-campus video streaming, VUC started a fulltime day program in 2011 with the support of a hybrid campus and videoconference model. In this model the teachers and some of the students......This paper presents and discusses findings about how students, teachers, and the organization experience a start-up-project applying video conferences between campus and home. This is new territory for adult learning centers. The paper discusses the transition to this eLearning form and discusses...

  17. Clouds and the extratropical circulation response to global warming in a hierarchy of global atmosphere models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voigt, A.

    2017-12-01

    Climate models project that global warming will lead to substantial changes in extratropical jet streams. Yet, many quantitative aspects of warming-induced jet stream changes remain uncertain, and recent work has indicated an important role of clouds and their radiative interactions. Here, I will investigate how cloud-radiative changes impact the zonal-mean extratropical circulation response under global warming using a hierarchy of global atmosphere models. I will first focus on aquaplanet setups with prescribed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), which reproduce the model spread found in realistic simulations with interactive SSTs. Simulations with two CMIP5 models MPI-ESM and IPSL-CM5A and prescribed clouds show that half of the circulation response can be attributed to cloud changes. The rise of tropical high-level clouds and the upward and poleward movement of midlatitude high-level clouds lead to poleward jet shifts. High-latitude low-level cloud changes shift the jet poleward in one model but not in the other. The impact of clouds on the jet operates via the atmospheric radiative forcing that is created by the cloud changes and is qualitatively reproduced in a dry Held-Suarez model, although the latter is too sensitive because of its simplified treatment of diabatic processes. I will then show that the aquaplanet results also hold when the models are used in a realistic setup that includes continents and seasonality. I will further juxtapose these prescribed-SST simulations with interactive-SST simulations and show that atmospheric and surface cloud-radiative interactions impact the jet poleward jet shifts in about equal measure. Finally, I will discuss the cloud impact on regional and seasonal circulation changes.

  18. Model of global evaluation for energetic resources; Modelo de avaliacao global de recursos energeticos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fujii, Ricardo Junqueira; Udaeta, Miguel Edgar Morales; Galvao, Luiz Claudio Ribeiro [Universidade de Sao Paulo (USP), SP (Brazil). Dept. de Energia e Automacao Eletricas. Grupo de Energia]. E-mail: ricardo_fujii@pea.usp.br; daeta@pea.usp.br; lcgalvao@pea.usp.br

    2006-07-01

    The traditional energy planning usually takes into account the technical economical costs, considered alongside environmental and a few political restraints; however, there is a lack of methods to evenly assess environmental, economical, social and political costs. This work tries to change such scenario by elaborating a model to characterize an energy resource in all four dimensions - environmental, political, social and economical - in an integrated view. The model aims at two objectives: provide a method to assess the global cost of the energy resource and estimate its potential considering the limitations provided by these dimensions. To minimize the complexity of the integration process, the model strongly recommends the use of the Full Cost Accounting - FCA - method to assess the costs and benefits from any given resource. The FCA allows considering quantitative and qualitative costs, reducing the need of quantitative data, which are limited in some cases. The model has been applied in the characterization of the region of Aracatuba, located in the west part of the state of Sao Paulo - Brazil. The results showed that the potential of renewable sources are promising, especially when the global costs are considered. Some resources, in spite of being economically attractive, don't provide an acceptable global cost. It became clear that the model is a valuable tool when the conventional tools fail to address many issues, especially the need of an integrated view on the planning process; the results from this model can be applied in a portfolio selection method to evaluate the best options for a power system expansion. It has to be noticed that the usefulness of this model can be increased when adopted with a method to analyze demand side management measures, thus offering a complete set of possible choices of energy options for the decision maker. (author)

  19. Emerging Global Initiatives in Neurogenetics: The Enhancing Neuroimaging Genetics through Meta-analysis (ENIGMA) Consortium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bearden, Carrie E; Thompson, Paul M

    2017-04-19

    The Enhancing Neuroimaging Genetics through Meta-analysis (ENIGMA) Consortium is a global team science effort, now including over 800 scientists spread across 340 institutions in 35 countries, with the shared goal of understanding disease and genetic influences on the brain. This "crowdsourcing" approach to team neuroscience has unprecedented power for advancing our understanding of both typical and atypical human brain development. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Global stability of an SEIR epidemic model with constant immigration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li Guihua [Key Laboratory of Eco-environments in Three Gorges Reservoir Region (Ministry of Education), Faculty of Life Science, Southwest China Normal University, Chongqing 400715 (China) and Department of Mathematics, Southwest China Normal University, Chongqing 400715 (China) and Department of Mathematics, North University of China, Taiyuan Shanxi 030051 (China)]. E-mail: liguihua@nuc.edu.cn; Wang Wendi [Department of Mathematics, Southwest China Normal University, Chongqing 400715 (China); Jin Zhen [Department of Mathematics, North University of China, Taiyuan Shanxi 030051 (China)

    2006-11-15

    An SEIR epidemic model with the infectious force in the latent (exposed), infected and recovered period is studied. It is assumed that susceptible and exposed individuals have constant immigration rates. The model exhibits a unique endemic state if the fraction p of infectious immigrants is positive. If the basic reproduction number R is greater than 1, sufficient conditions for the global stability of the endemic equilibrium are obtained by the compound matrix theory.

  1. Global stability of an SEIR epidemic model with constant immigration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Guihua; Wang Wendi; Jin Zhen

    2006-01-01

    An SEIR epidemic model with the infectious force in the latent (exposed), infected and recovered period is studied. It is assumed that susceptible and exposed individuals have constant immigration rates. The model exhibits a unique endemic state if the fraction p of infectious immigrants is positive. If the basic reproduction number R is greater than 1, sufficient conditions for the global stability of the endemic equilibrium are obtained by the compound matrix theory

  2. Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  3. Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-01-01

    There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  4. A high-resolution global-scale groundwater model

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Graaf, I. E. M.; Sutanudjaja, E. H.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

    2015-02-01

    Groundwater is the world's largest accessible source of fresh water. It plays a vital role in satisfying basic needs for drinking water, agriculture and industrial activities. During times of drought groundwater sustains baseflow to rivers and wetlands, thereby supporting ecosystems. Most global-scale hydrological models (GHMs) do not include a groundwater flow component, mainly due to lack of geohydrological data at the global scale. For the simulation of lateral flow and groundwater head dynamics, a realistic physical representation of the groundwater system is needed, especially for GHMs that run at finer resolutions. In this study we present a global-scale groundwater model (run at 6' resolution) using MODFLOW to construct an equilibrium water table at its natural state as the result of long-term climatic forcing. The used aquifer schematization and properties are based on available global data sets of lithology and transmissivities combined with the estimated thickness of an upper, unconfined aquifer. This model is forced with outputs from the land-surface PCRaster Global Water Balance (PCR-GLOBWB) model, specifically net recharge and surface water levels. A sensitivity analysis, in which the model was run with various parameter settings, showed that variation in saturated conductivity has the largest impact on the groundwater levels simulated. Validation with observed groundwater heads showed that groundwater heads are reasonably well simulated for many regions of the world, especially for sediment basins (R2 = 0.95). The simulated regional-scale groundwater patterns and flow paths demonstrate the relevance of lateral groundwater flow in GHMs. Inter-basin groundwater flows can be a significant part of a basin's water budget and help to sustain river baseflows, especially during droughts. Also, water availability of larger aquifer systems can be positively affected by additional recharge from inter-basin groundwater flows.

  5. GLEAM version 3: Global Land Evaporation Datasets and Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martens, B.; Miralles, D. G.; Lievens, H.; van der Schalie, R.; de Jeu, R.; Fernandez-Prieto, D.; Verhoest, N.

    2015-12-01

    Terrestrial evaporation links energy, water and carbon cycles over land and is therefore a key variable of the climate system. However, the global-scale magnitude and variability of the flux, and the sensitivity of the underlying physical process to changes in environmental factors, are still poorly understood due to limitations in in situ measurements. As a result, several methods have risen to estimate global patterns of land evaporation from satellite observations. However, these algorithms generally differ in their approach to model evaporation, resulting in large differences in their estimates. One of these methods is GLEAM, the Global Land Evaporation: the Amsterdam Methodology. GLEAM estimates terrestrial evaporation based on daily satellite observations of meteorological variables, vegetation characteristics and soil moisture. Since the publication of the first version of the algorithm (2011), the model has been widely applied to analyse trends in the water cycle and land-atmospheric feedbacks during extreme hydrometeorological events. A third version of the GLEAM global datasets is foreseen by the end of 2015. Given the relevance of having a continuous and reliable record of global-scale evaporation estimates for climate and hydrological research, the establishment of an online data portal to host these data to the public is also foreseen. In this new release of the GLEAM datasets, different components of the model have been updated, with the most significant change being the revision of the data assimilation algorithm. In this presentation, we will highlight the most important changes of the methodology and present three new GLEAM datasets and their validation against in situ observations and an alternative dataset of terrestrial evaporation (ERA-Land). Results of the validation exercise indicate that the magnitude and the spatiotemporal variability of the modelled evaporation agree reasonably well with the estimates of ERA-Land and the in situ

  6. Global characteristics of geomagnetic excursions as seen in global empirical models and a numerical geodynamo simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korte, M. C.; Wardinski, I.; Brown, M. C.

    2016-12-01

    Paleomagnetic results from sediments and lava flows provide observational evidence of numerous geomagnetic excursions throughout Earth's history. Two new spherical harmonic geomagnetic field models covering 50-30 ka, including the Laschamp ( 41ka) and Mono Lake ( 32-35 ka) excursions allow us to characterize the global behaviour of these events, both at Earth's surface and the core-mantle boundary. We investigate the evolution of dipole and large-scale non-dipole power throughout the duration of the model and the morphology of the large-scale radial field at the core-mantle boundary. The models suggest clear differences in both the decrease in axial dipole strength and dipole tilt between the two excursions and unlike the previously published model by Leonhardt et al. (2009), they suggest some increase of non-dipole power during the early and late stages of the Laschamp excursion. Global characteristics from the models can be directly compared with results from numerical simulations. We do so for several excursions generated by a numerical simulation driven by purely compositional convection, which appears Earth-like in terms of excursion and reversal occurrence frequency. Excursions from this simulation show differing characteristics, including differences in spectral power evolution. Some cases show similarities to the Laschamp and Mono Lake excursions in the spherical harmonic models. In particular they all indicate that excursions are mainly governed by the axial dipole term and equatorial dipole terms play a minor role.

  7. Five challenges for stochastic epidemic models involving global transmission

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tom Britton

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The most basic stochastic epidemic models are those involving global transmission, meaning that infection rates depend only on the type and state of the individuals involved, and not on their location in the population. Simple as they are, there are still several open problems for such models. For example, when will such an epidemic go extinct and with what probability (questions depending on the population being fixed, changing or growing? How can a model be defined explaining the sometimes observed scenario of frequent mid-sized epidemic outbreaks? How can evolution of the infectious agent transmission rates be modelled and fitted to data in a robust way?

  8. Incorporating nitrogen fixing cyanobacteria in the global biogeochemical model HAMOCC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paulsen, Hanna; Ilyina, Tatiana; Six, Katharina

    2015-04-01

    Nitrogen fixation by marine diazotrophs plays a fundamental role in the oceanic nitrogen and carbon cycle as it provides a major source of 'new' nitrogen to the euphotic zone that supports biological carbon export and sequestration. Since most global biogeochemical models include nitrogen fixation only diagnostically, they are not able to capture its spatial pattern sufficiently. Here we present the incorporation of an explicit, dynamic representation of diazotrophic cyanobacteria and the corresponding nitrogen fixation in the global ocean biogeochemical model HAMOCC (Hamburg Ocean Carbon Cycle model), which is part of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth system model (MPI-ESM). The parameterization of the diazotrophic growth is thereby based on available knowledge about the cyanobacterium Trichodesmium spp., which is considered as the most significant pelagic nitrogen fixer. Evaluation against observations shows that the model successfully reproduces the main spatial distribution of cyanobacteria and nitrogen fixation, covering large parts of the tropical and subtropical oceans. Besides the role of cyanobacteria in marine biogeochemical cycles, their capacity to form extensive surface blooms induces a number of bio-physical feedback mechanisms in the Earth system. The processes driving these interactions, which are related to the alteration of heat absorption, surface albedo and momentum input by wind, are incorporated in the biogeochemical and physical model of the MPI-ESM in order to investigate their impacts on a global scale. First preliminary results will be shown.

  9. Global solution for a chemotactic haptotactic model of cancer invasion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, Youshan; Wang, Mingjun

    2008-10-01

    This paper deals with a mathematical model of cancer invasion of tissue recently proposed by Chaplain and Lolas. The model consists of a reaction-diffusion-taxis partial differential equation (PDE) describing the evolution of tumour cell density, a reaction-diffusion PDE governing the evolution of the proteolytic enzyme concentration and an ordinary differential equation modelling the proteolysis of the extracellular matrix (ECM). In addition to random motion, the tumour cells are directed not only by haptotaxis (cellular locomotion directed in response to a concentration gradient of adhesive molecules along the ECM) but also by chemotaxis (cellular locomotion directed in response to a concentration gradient of the diffusible proteolytic enzyme). In one space dimension, the global existence and uniqueness of a classical solution to this combined chemotactic-haptotactic model is proved for any chemotactic coefficient χ > 0. In two and three space dimensions, the global existence is proved for small χ/μ (where μ is the logistic growth rate of the tumour cells). The fundamental point of proof is to raise the regularity of a solution from L1 to Lp (p > 1). Furthermore, the existence of blow-up solutions to a sub-model in two space dimensions for large χ shows, to some extent, that the condition that χ/μ is small is necessary for the global existence of a solution to the full model.

  10. Modelling vacuum arcs : from plasma initiation to surface interactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Timko, H.

    2011-01-01

    A better understanding of vacuum arcs is desirable in many of today's 'big science' projects including linear colliders, fusion devices, and satellite systems. For the Compact Linear Collider (CLIC) design, radio-frequency (RF) breakdowns occurring in accelerating cavities influence efficiency optimisation and cost reduction issues. Studying vacuum arcs both theoretically as well as experimentally under well-defined and reproducible direct-current (DC) conditions is the first step towards exploring RF breakdowns. In this thesis, we have studied Cu DC vacuum arcs with a combination of experiments, a particle-in-cell (PIC) model of the arc plasma, and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of the subsequent surface damaging mechanism. We have also developed the 2D Arc-PIC code and the physics model incorporated in it, especially for the purpose of modelling the plasma initiation in vacuum arcs. Assuming the presence of a field emitter at the cathode initially, we have identified the conditions for plasma formation and have studied the transitions from field emission stage to a fully developed arc. The 'footing' of the plasma is the cathode spot that supplies the arc continuously with particles; the high-density core of the plasma is located above this cathode spot. Our results have shown that once an arc plasma is initiated, and as long as energy is available, the arc is self-maintaining due to the plasma sheath that ensures enhanced field emission and sputtering.The plasma model can already give an estimate on how the time-to-breakdown changes with the neutral evaporation rate, which is yet to be determined by atomistic simulations. Due to the non-linearity of the problem, we have also performed a code-to-code comparison. The reproducibility of plasma behaviour and time-to-breakdown with independent codes increased confidence in the results presented here. Our MD simulations identified high-flux, high-energy ion bombardment as a possible mechanism forming the early

  11. Global Earth Response to Loading by Ocean Tide Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estes, R. H.; Strayer, J. M.

    1979-01-01

    Mathematical and programming techniques to numerically calculate Earth response to global semidiurnal and diurnal ocean tide models were developed. Global vertical crustal deformations were evaluated for M sub 2, S sub 2, N sub 2, K sub 2, K sub 1, O sub 1, and P sub 1 ocean tide loading, while horizontal deformations were evaluated for the M sub 2 tidal load. Tidal gravity calculations were performed for M sub 2 tidal loads, and strain tensor elements were evaluated for M sub 2 loads. The M sub 2 solution used for the ocean tide included the effects of self-gravitation and crustal loading.

  12. A global sensitivity analysis approach for morphogenesis models

    KAUST Repository

    Boas, Sonja E. M.

    2015-11-21

    Background Morphogenesis is a developmental process in which cells organize into shapes and patterns. Complex, non-linear and multi-factorial models with images as output are commonly used to study morphogenesis. It is difficult to understand the relation between the uncertainty in the input and the output of such ‘black-box’ models, giving rise to the need for sensitivity analysis tools. In this paper, we introduce a workflow for a global sensitivity analysis approach to study the impact of single parameters and the interactions between them on the output of morphogenesis models. Results To demonstrate the workflow, we used a published, well-studied model of vascular morphogenesis. The parameters of this cellular Potts model (CPM) represent cell properties and behaviors that drive the mechanisms of angiogenic sprouting. The global sensitivity analysis correctly identified the dominant parameters in the model, consistent with previous studies. Additionally, the analysis provided information on the relative impact of single parameters and of interactions between them. This is very relevant because interactions of parameters impede the experimental verification of the predicted effect of single parameters. The parameter interactions, although of low impact, provided also new insights in the mechanisms of in silico sprouting. Finally, the analysis indicated that the model could be reduced by one parameter. Conclusions We propose global sensitivity analysis as an alternative approach to study the mechanisms of morphogenesis. Comparison of the ranking of the impact of the model parameters to knowledge derived from experimental data and from manipulation experiments can help to falsify models and to find the operand mechanisms in morphogenesis. The workflow is applicable to all ‘black-box’ models, including high-throughput in vitro models in which output measures are affected by a set of experimental perturbations.

  13. A global sensitivity analysis approach for morphogenesis models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boas, Sonja E M; Navarro Jimenez, Maria I; Merks, Roeland M H; Blom, Joke G

    2015-11-21

    Morphogenesis is a developmental process in which cells organize into shapes and patterns. Complex, non-linear and multi-factorial models with images as output are commonly used to study morphogenesis. It is difficult to understand the relation between the uncertainty in the input and the output of such 'black-box' models, giving rise to the need for sensitivity analysis tools. In this paper, we introduce a workflow for a global sensitivity analysis approach to study the impact of single parameters and the interactions between them on the output of morphogenesis models. To demonstrate the workflow, we used a published, well-studied model of vascular morphogenesis. The parameters of this cellular Potts model (CPM) represent cell properties and behaviors that drive the mechanisms of angiogenic sprouting. The global sensitivity analysis correctly identified the dominant parameters in the model, consistent with previous studies. Additionally, the analysis provided information on the relative impact of single parameters and of interactions between them. This is very relevant because interactions of parameters impede the experimental verification of the predicted effect of single parameters. The parameter interactions, although of low impact, provided also new insights in the mechanisms of in silico sprouting. Finally, the analysis indicated that the model could be reduced by one parameter. We propose global sensitivity analysis as an alternative approach to study the mechanisms of morphogenesis. Comparison of the ranking of the impact of the model parameters to knowledge derived from experimental data and from manipulation experiments can help to falsify models and to find the operand mechanisms in morphogenesis. The workflow is applicable to all 'black-box' models, including high-throughput in vitro models in which output measures are affected by a set of experimental perturbations.

  14. Subdivision, Sampling, and Initialization Strategies for Simplical Branch and Bound in Global Optimization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clausen, Jens; Zilinskas, A,

    2002-01-01

    We consider the problem of optimizing a Lipshitzian function. The branch and bound technique is a well-known solution method, and the key components for this are the subdivision scheme, the bound calculation scheme, and the initialization. For Lipschitzian optimization, the bound calculations are...

  15. A Framework to Support Global Corporate M-Learning: Learner Initiative and Technology Acceptance across Cultures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrell, Wendy

    2015-01-01

    Corporations are growing more and more international and accordingly need to train and develop an increasingly diverse and dispersed employee based. M-learning seems like it may be the solution if it can cross cultures. Learner initiative has been shown to be a disadvantage of distant learning environments, which would include m-learning.…

  16. Stochastic modeling of pitting corrosion: A new model for initiation and growth of multiple corrosion pits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valor, A.; Caleyo, F.; Alfonso, L.; Rivas, D.; Hallen, J.M.

    2007-01-01

    In this work, a new stochastic model capable of simulating pitting corrosion is developed and validated. Pitting corrosion is modeled as the combination of two stochastic processes: pit initiation and pit growth. Pit generation is modeled as a nonhomogeneous Poisson process, in which induction time for pit initiation is simulated as the realization of a Weibull process. In this way, the exponential and Weibull distributions can be considered as the possible distributions for pit initiation time. Pit growth is simulated using a nonhomogeneous Markov process. Extreme value statistics is used to find the distribution of maximum pit depths resulting from the combination of the initiation and growth processes for multiple pits. The proposed model is validated using several published experiments on pitting corrosion. It is capable of reproducing the experimental observations with higher quality than the stochastic models available in the literature for pitting corrosion

  17. Stochastic modeling of pitting corrosion: A new model for initiation and growth of multiple corrosion pits

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Valor, A. [Facultad de Fisica, Universidad de La Habana, San Lazaro y L, Vedado, 10400 Havana (Cuba); Caleyo, F. [Departamento de Ingenieria, Metalurgica, IPN-ESIQIE, UPALM Edif. 7, Zacatenco, Mexico DF 07738 (Mexico)]. E-mail: fcaleyo@gmail.com; Alfonso, L. [Departamento de Ingenieria, Metalurgica, IPN-ESIQIE, UPALM Edif. 7, Zacatenco, Mexico DF 07738 (Mexico); Rivas, D. [Departamento de Ingenieria, Metalurgica, IPN-ESIQIE, UPALM Edif. 7, Zacatenco, Mexico DF 07738 (Mexico); Hallen, J.M. [Departamento de Ingenieria, Metalurgica, IPN-ESIQIE, UPALM Edif. 7, Zacatenco, Mexico DF 07738 (Mexico)

    2007-02-15

    In this work, a new stochastic model capable of simulating pitting corrosion is developed and validated. Pitting corrosion is modeled as the combination of two stochastic processes: pit initiation and pit growth. Pit generation is modeled as a nonhomogeneous Poisson process, in which induction time for pit initiation is simulated as the realization of a Weibull process. In this way, the exponential and Weibull distributions can be considered as the possible distributions for pit initiation time. Pit growth is simulated using a nonhomogeneous Markov process. Extreme value statistics is used to find the distribution of maximum pit depths resulting from the combination of the initiation and growth processes for multiple pits. The proposed model is validated using several published experiments on pitting corrosion. It is capable of reproducing the experimental observations with higher quality than the stochastic models available in the literature for pitting corrosion.

  18. Initializing a Mesoscale Boundary-Layer Model with Radiosonde Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berri, Guillermo J.; Bertossa, Germán

    2018-01-01

    A mesoscale boundary-layer model is used to simulate low-level regional wind fields over the La Plata River of South America, a region characterized by a strong daily cycle of land-river surface-temperature contrast and low-level circulations of sea-land breeze type. The initial and boundary conditions are defined from a limited number of local observations and the upper boundary condition is taken from the only radiosonde observations available in the region. The study considers 14 different upper boundary conditions defined from the radiosonde data at standard levels, significant levels, level of the inversion base and interpolated levels at fixed heights, all of them within the first 1500 m. The period of analysis is 1994-2008 during which eight daily observations from 13 weather stations of the region are used to validate the 24-h surface-wind forecast. The model errors are defined as the root-mean-square of relative error in wind-direction frequency distribution and mean wind speed per wind sector. Wind-direction errors are greater than wind-speed errors and show significant dispersion among the different upper boundary conditions, not present in wind speed, revealing a sensitivity to the initialization method. The wind-direction errors show a well-defined daily cycle, not evident in wind speed, with the minimum at noon and the maximum at dusk, but no systematic deterioration with time. The errors grow with the height of the upper boundary condition level, in particular wind direction, and double the errors obtained when the upper boundary condition is defined from the lower levels. The conclusion is that defining the model upper boundary condition from radiosonde data closer to the ground minimizes the low-level wind-field errors throughout the region.

  19. Hydrodynamic modelling and global datasets: Flow connectivity and SRTM data, a Bangkok case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trigg, M. A.; Bates, P. B.; Michaelides, K.

    2012-04-01

    The rise in the global interconnected manufacturing supply chains requires an understanding and consistent quantification of flood risk at a global scale. Flood risk is often better quantified (or at least more precisely defined) in regions where there has been an investment in comprehensive topographical data collection such as LiDAR coupled with detailed hydrodynamic modelling. Yet in regions where these data and modelling are unavailable, the implications of flooding and the knock on effects for global industries can be dramatic, as evidenced by the recent floods in Bangkok, Thailand. There is a growing momentum in terms of global modelling initiatives to address this lack of a consistent understanding of flood risk and they will rely heavily on the application of available global datasets relevant to hydrodynamic modelling, such as Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) data and its derivatives. These global datasets bring opportunities to apply consistent methodologies on an automated basis in all regions, while the use of coarser scale datasets also brings many challenges such as sub-grid process representation and downscaled hydrology data from global climate models. There are significant opportunities for hydrological science in helping define new, realistic and physically based methodologies that can be applied globally as well as the possibility of gaining new insights into flood risk through analysis of the many large datasets that will be derived from this work. We use Bangkok as a case study to explore some of the issues related to using these available global datasets for hydrodynamic modelling, with particular focus on using SRTM data to represent topography. Research has shown that flow connectivity on the floodplain is an important component in the dynamics of flood flows on to and off the floodplain, and indeed within different areas of the floodplain. A lack of representation of flow connectivity, often due to data resolution limitations, means

  20. The global electroweak Standard Model fit after the Higgs discovery

    CERN Document Server

    Baak, Max

    2013-01-01

    We present an update of the global Standard Model (SM) fit to electroweak precision data under the assumption that the new particle discovered at the LHC is the SM Higgs boson. In this scenario all parameters entering the calculations of electroweak precision observalbes are known, allowing, for the first time, to over-constrain the SM at the electroweak scale and assert its validity. Within the SM the W boson mass and the effective weak mixing angle can be accurately predicted from the global fit. The results are compatible with, and exceed in precision, the direct measurements. An updated determination of the S, T and U parameters, which parametrize the oblique vacuum corrections, is given. The obtained values show good consistency with the SM expectation and no direct signs of new physics are seen. We conclude with an outlook to the global electroweak fit for a future e+e- collider.

  1. Impacts of model initialization on an integrated surface water - groundwater model

    KAUST Repository

    Ajami, Hoori

    2015-04-01

    Integrated hydrologic models characterize catchment responses by coupling the subsurface flow with land surface processes. One of the major areas of uncertainty in such models is the specification of the initial condition and its influence on subsequent simulations. A key challenge in model initialization is that it requires spatially distributed information on model states, groundwater levels and soil moisture, even when such data are not routinely available. Here, the impact of uncertainty in initial condition was explored across a 208 km2 catchment in Denmark using the ParFlow.CLM model. The initialization impact was assessed under two meteorological conditions (wet vs dry) using five depth to water table and soil moisture distributions obtained from various equilibrium states (thermal, root zone, discharge, saturated and unsaturated zone equilibrium) during the model spin-up. Each of these equilibrium states correspond to varying computation times to achieve stability in a particular aspect of the system state. Results identified particular sensitivity in modelled recharge and stream flow to the different initializations, but reduced sensitivity in modelled energy fluxes. Analysis also suggests that to simulate a year that is wetter than the spin-up period, an initialization based on discharge equilibrium is adequate to capture the direction and magnitude of surface water–groundwater exchanges. For a drier or hydrologically similar year to the spin-up period, an initialization based on groundwater equilibrium is required. Variability of monthly subsurface storage changes and discharge bias at the scale of a hydrological event show that the initialization impacts do not diminish as the simulations progress, highlighting the importance of robust and accurate initialization in capturing surface water–groundwater dynamics.

  2. A global workspace model for phenomenal and access consciousness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raffone, Antonino; Pantani, Martina

    2010-06-01

    Both the global workspace theory and Block's distinction between phenomenal and access consciousness, are central in the current debates about consciousness and the neural correlates of consciousness. In this article, a unifying global workspace model for phenomenal and access consciousness is proposed. In the model, recurrent neural interactions take place in distinct yet interacting access and phenomenal brain loops. The effectiveness of feedback signaling onto sensory cortical maps is emphasized for the neural correlates of phenomenal consciousness. Two forms of top-down attention, attention for perception and attention for access, play differential roles for phenomenal and access consciousness. The model is implemented in a neural network form, with the simulation of single and multiple visual object processing, and of the attentional blink. 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Global modelling of river water quality under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Franssen, Wietse H. P.; Yearsley, John R.

    2017-04-01

    Climate change will pose challenges on the quality of freshwater resources for human use and ecosystems for instance by changing the dilution capacity and by affecting the rate of chemical processes in rivers. Here we assess the impacts of climate change and induced streamflow changes on a selection of water quality parameters for river basins globally. We used the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and a newly developed global water quality module for salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand. The modelling framework was validated using observed records of streamflow, water temperature, chloride, electrical conductivity, dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand for 1981-2010. VIC and the water quality module were then forced with an ensemble of bias-corrected General Circulation Model (GCM) output for the representative concentration pathways RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 to study water quality trends and identify critical regions (hotspots) of water quality deterioration for the 21st century.

  4. [Comparison of three daily global solar radiation models].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jin-Ming; Fan, Wen-Yi; Zhao, Ying-Hui

    2014-08-01

    Three daily global solar radiation estimation models ( Å-P model, Thornton-Running model and model provided by Liu Ke-qun et al.) were analyzed and compared using data of 13 weather stations from 1982 to 2012 from three northeastern provinces and eastern Inner Mongolia. After cross-validation analysis, the result showed that mean absolute error (MAE) for each model was 1.71, 2.83 and 1.68 MJ x m(-2) x d(-1) respectively, showing that Å-P model and model provided by Liu Ke-qun et al. which used percentage of sunshine had an advantage over Thornton-Running model which didn't use percentage of sunshine. Model provided by Liu Ke-qun et al. played a good effect on the situation of non-sunshine, and its MAE and bias percentage were 18.5% and 33.8% smaller than those of Å-P model, respectively. High precision results could be obtained by using the simple linear model of Å-P. Å-P model, Thornton-Running model and model provided by Liu Ke-qun et al. overvalued daily global solar radiation by 12.2%, 19.2% and 9.9% respectively. MAE for each station varied little with the spatial change of location, and annual MAE decreased with the advance of years. The reason for this might be that the change of observation accuracy caused by the replacement of radiation instrument in 1993. MAEs for rainy days, non-sunshine days and warm seasons of the three models were greater than those for days without rain, sunshine days and cold seasons respectively, showing that different methods should be used for different weather conditions on estimating solar radiation with meteorological elements.

  5. An Effective Model for Improving Global Health Nursing Competence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Sun-Joo

    2016-01-01

    This paper proposed an effective model for improving global health nursing competence among undergraduate students. A descriptive case study was conducted by evaluation of four implemented programs by the author. All programs were conducted with students majoring in nursing and healthcare, where the researcher was a program director, professor, or facilitator. These programs were analyzed in terms of students' needs assessment, program design, and implementation and evaluation factors. The concept and composition of global nursing competence, identified within previous studies, were deemed appropriate in all of our programs. Program composition varied from curricular to extracurricular domains. During the implementation phase, some of the programs included non-Korean students to improve cultural diversity and overcome language barriers. Qualitative and quantitative surveys were conducted to assess program efficacy. Data triangulation from students' reflective journals was examined. Additionally, students' awareness regarding changes within global health nursing, improved critical thinking, cultural understanding, and global leadership skills were investigated pre- and post-program implementation. The importance of identifying students' needs regarding global nursing competence when developing appropriate curricula is discussed.

  6. An Effective Model for Improving Global Health Nursing Competence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sunjoo Kang

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper developed an effective model for improving global health nursing competence among undergraduate students. A descriptive case study was conducted by implementing four programs. All programs were conducted with students majoring nursing and healthcare, where the researcher was a program director, professor, or facilitator. These programs were analyzed in terms of students’ needs assessment, program design, and implementation and evaluation factors. The concept and composition of global nursing competence, identified within previous studies, were deemed appropriate in all of our programs. Program composition varied from curricular to extracurricular domains. During the implementation phase, most of the programs included non-Korean students to improve cultural diversity and overcome language barriers. Qualitative and quantitative surveys were conducted to assess program efficacy. Data triangulation from students’ reflective journals was examined. Additionally, students’ awareness regarding changes within global health nursing, improved critical thinking, cultural understanding, and global leadership skills were investigated pre and post-program implementation. We discuss how identifying students’ needs regarding global nursing competence when developing appropriate curricula.

  7. A seawater desalination scheme for global hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanasaki, Naota; Yoshikawa, Sayaka; Kakinuma, Kaoru; Kanae, Shinjiro

    2016-10-01

    Seawater desalination is a practical technology for providing fresh water to coastal arid regions. Indeed, the use of desalination is rapidly increasing due to growing water demand in these areas and decreases in production costs due to technological advances. In this study, we developed a model to estimate the areas where seawater desalination is likely to be used as a major water source and the likely volume of production. The model was designed to be incorporated into global hydrological models (GHMs) that explicitly include human water usage. The model requires spatially detailed information on climate, income levels, and industrial and municipal water use, which represent standard input/output data in GHMs. The model was applied to a specific historical year (2005) and showed fairly good reproduction of the present geographical distribution and national production of desalinated water in the world. The model was applied globally to two periods in the future (2011-2040 and 2041-2070) under three distinct socioeconomic conditions, i.e., SSP (shared socioeconomic pathway) 1, SSP2, and SSP3. The results indicate that the usage of seawater desalination will have expanded considerably in geographical extent, and that production will have increased by 1.4-2.1-fold in 2011-2040 compared to the present (from 2.8 × 109 m3 yr-1 in 2005 to 4.0-6.0 × 109 m3 yr-1), and 6.7-17.3-fold in 2041-2070 (from 18.7 to 48.6 × 109 m3 yr-1). The estimated global costs for production for each period are USD 1.1-10.6 × 109 (0.002-0.019 % of the total global GDP), USD 1.6-22.8 × 109 (0.001-0.020 %), and USD 7.5-183.9 × 109 (0.002-0.100 %), respectively. The large spreads in these projections are primarily attributable to variations within the socioeconomic scenarios.

  8. [The department budget, in the context of the hospital global budget. Initial results in general medicine].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Besançon, F

    1984-02-23

    In a general hospital (Hôtel-Dieu, in the center of Paris), run with a global budget, budgets determined for each unit were introduced as an experiment in 1980. Physicians were in charge of certain expenses, mainly: linen, drugs, transportation of patients to and from other hospitals within Paris, and blood fractions. The whole does not exceed 4% of the turnover (FF 20 millions in 1980) of a 67 bed internal medicine unit. Other accounts deal with the stays, admissions, prescriptions of technical acts, laboratory analyses, and X-rays. In 1980, expenses were 11% more than budgeted, but the increase in stays and particularly in admissions was significantly greater. The resulting savings were 8.8% and 18.7% for stays and admissions respectively. Psychic reactions were variable. The subsequent budgets followed the fluctuations of recorded expenses, which were fairly important in both directions. The unit budget may be an advance or a regression, in a restrictive and past-perpetuating context. The coherence between the unit budget and the global hospital budget is questionable. Physicians were willing to take part in accounting and saving. They have good reason for not enlarging their financial responsibilities. Conversely, they may give more attention to diseases of public opinion.

  9. PVO / NGO initiatives. The Global Dialogues Trust -- "Scenarios from the Sahel".

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-01-01

    Scenarios from the Sahel is an HIV/AIDS prevention project for adolescents and young adults in Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, organized by the Global Dialogues Trust and launched in January 1997. The project invites people aged 24 years and younger to engage in a competition in which they write scenarios for a 1-5 minute video on HIV/AIDS. Those 30 scenarios judged to be the most valuable to the HIV/AIDS prevention effort in the Sahel will be developed into video spots by the region's film-makers and screened at cinemas and broadcast on television stations in West Africa. The spots will also be collected upon a compilation video available for use by local nongovernmental organizations in their HIV/AIDS prevention activities in the region. The compilation video will be dubbed from French into local languages and English to facilitate its broad dissemination in the 4 participating countries and their neighbors. The video together with an education pack will also be distributed to local organizations and schools. The project, to be conducted in close partnership with local people and their organizations, will end with its evaluation in June 1998. Global Dialogues Trust is a charitable trust based in the UK dedicated to advance the education of the public throughout the world in all matters concerning the prevention of HIV/AIDS. The organization's main priority is to develop local capacity to fight HIV/AIDS through preventive education.

  10. A Process Model of Partnership Evolution Around New IT Initiatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kestilä, Timo; Salmivalli, Lauri; Salmela, Hannu; Vahtera, Annukka

    Prior research on inter-organizational information systems has focused primarily on dyadic network relationships, where agreements about information exchange are made between two organizations. The focus of this research is on the processes through which IT decisions are made within larger inter-organizational networks with several network parties. The research draws from network theories in organization science to identify three alternative mechanisms for making network level commitments: contracts, rules and values. In addition, theoretical concepts are searched from dynamic network models, which identify different cycles and stages in network evolution. The empirical research was conducted in two networks. The first one comprises of four municipalities which began collaboration in the deployment of IT in early childhood education (ECE). The second network involves a case where several organizations, both private and public, initiated a joint effort to implement a national level electronic prescription system (EPS). The frameworks and concepts drawn from organizational theories are used to explain success of the first case and the failure of the latter case. The paper contributes to prior IOS research by providing a new theory-based framework for the analysis of early stages of building organizational networks around innovative IT initiatives.

  11. Assessing global vegetation activity using spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulder, Vera L.; van Eck, Christel M.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Regnier, Pierre A. G.

    2016-04-01

    This work demonstrates the potential of modelling vegetation activity using a hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal model. This approach allows modelling changes in vegetation and climate simultaneous in space and time. Changes of vegetation activity such as phenology are modelled as a dynamic process depending on climate variability in both space and time. Additionally, differences in observed vegetation status can be contributed to other abiotic ecosystem properties, e.g. soil and terrain properties. Although these properties do not change in time, they do change in space and may provide valuable information in addition to the climate dynamics. The spatio-temporal Bayesian models were calibrated at a regional scale because the local trends in space and time can be better captured by the model. The regional subsets were defined according to the SREX segmentation, as defined by the IPCC. Each region is considered being relatively homogeneous in terms of large-scale climate and biomes, still capturing small-scale (grid-cell level) variability. Modelling within these regions is hence expected to be less uncertain due to the absence of these large-scale patterns, compared to a global approach. This overall modelling approach allows the comparison of model behavior for the different regions and may provide insights on the main dynamic processes driving the interaction between vegetation and climate within different regions. The data employed in this study encompasses the global datasets for soil properties (SoilGrids), terrain properties (Global Relief Model based on SRTM DEM and ETOPO), monthly time series of satellite-derived vegetation indices (GIMMS NDVI3g) and climate variables (Princeton Meteorological Forcing Dataset). The findings proved the potential of a spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling approach for assessing vegetation dynamics, at a regional scale. The observed interrelationships of the employed data and the different spatial and temporal trends support

  12. Global solutions to random 3D vorticity equations for small initial data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbu, Viorel; Röckner, Michael

    2017-11-01

    One proves the existence and uniqueness in (Lp (R3)) 3, 3/2 4p - 6)3 with respect to the time variable. Furthermore, we obtain the pathwise continuous dependence of solutions with respect to the initial data. In particular, one gets a locally unique solution of 3D stochastic Navier-Stokes equation in vorticity form up to some explosion stopping time τ adapted to the Brownian motion.

  13. Collaborative training program in coastal management in the Philippines: a local initiative with a global perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Balgos, M.C.

    1995-01-01

    A collaborative project in developing a broad-based coastal management training program in the Philippines is being undertaken by a group of government and nongovernment agencies. It addresses the lack of expertise in planning an implementation for coastal management in the country. The process will be documented to serve as a guide in starting and maintaining the process of collaborative training in coastal management in the region. Other training initiatives are outlined including regional ...

  14. Local and Global Function Model of the Liver

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Hesheng, E-mail: hesheng@umich.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Feng, Mary [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Jackson, Andrew [Department of Medical Physics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States); Ten Haken, Randall K.; Lawrence, Theodore S. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Cao, Yue [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Department of Radiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Department of Biomedical Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: To develop a local and global function model in the liver based on regional and organ function measurements to support individualized adaptive radiation therapy (RT). Methods and Materials: A local and global model for liver function was developed to include both functional volume and the effect of functional variation of subunits. Adopting the assumption of parallel architecture in the liver, the global function was composed of a sum of local function probabilities of subunits, varying between 0 and 1. The model was fit to 59 datasets of liver regional and organ function measures from 23 patients obtained before, during, and 1 month after RT. The local function probabilities of subunits were modeled by a sigmoid function in relating to MRI-derived portal venous perfusion values. The global function was fitted to a logarithm of an indocyanine green retention rate at 15 minutes (an overall liver function measure). Cross-validation was performed by leave-m-out tests. The model was further evaluated by fitting to the data divided according to whether the patients had hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) or not. Results: The liver function model showed that (1) a perfusion value of 68.6 mL/(100 g · min) yielded a local function probability of 0.5; (2) the probability reached 0.9 at a perfusion value of 98 mL/(100 g · min); and (3) at a probability of 0.03 [corresponding perfusion of 38 mL/(100 g · min)] or lower, the contribution to global function was lost. Cross-validations showed that the model parameters were stable. The model fitted to the data from the patients with HCC indicated that the same amount of portal venous perfusion was translated into less local function probability than in the patients with non-HCC tumors. Conclusions: The developed liver function model could provide a means to better assess individual and regional dose-responses of hepatic functions, and provide guidance for individualized treatment planning of RT.

  15. A Process-based Model of Global Lichen Productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porada, P.; Kleidon, A.

    2012-04-01

    Lichens and biotic crusts are abundant in most ecosystems of the world. They are the main autotrophic organisms in many deserts and at high altitudes and they can also be found in large amounts as epiphytes in some forests, especially in the boreal zone. They are characterised by a great variety of physiological properties, such as growth form, productivity or color. Due to the vast land surface areas covered by lichens, they may contribute significantly to the global terrestrial net carbon uptake. Furthermore, they potentially play an important role with respect to nutrient cycles in some ecosystems and they have the ability to enhance weathering at the surface on which they grow. A possible way to quantify these processes at the global scale is presented here in form of a process-based lichen model. This approach is based on the concepts used in many dynamical vegetation models and extends these methods to account for the specific properties of lichens. Hence, processes such as photosynthesis, respiration and water exchange are implemented as well as important trade-offs like photosynthetic capacity versus respiratory load and water content versus CO2 conductivity. The great physiological variability of lichens is incorporated directly into the model through ranges of possible parameter values, which are randomly sampled. In this way, many artificial lichen "species" are created and climate then acts as a filter to determine the species which are able to survive permanently. By averaging over the surviving "species", the model predicts lichen productivity as a function of climate input data such as temperature, radiation and precipitation at the global scale. Consequently, the contribution of lichens to the global carbon balance can be quantified. Moreover, global patterns of lichen biodiversity and other properties can be illustrated. The model can be extended to account for the nutrient dynamics of lichens, such as nitrogen fixation and the acquisition and

  16. Global stability of two models with incomplete treatment for tuberculosis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang Yali; Li Jianquan; Ma Zhien; Liu Luju

    2010-01-01

    Research highlights: → Two tuberculosis models with incomplete treatment. → Intuitive epidemiological interpretations for the basic reproduction numbers. → Global dynamics of the two models. → Strategies to control the spread of tuberculosis. - Abstract: Two tuberculosis (TB) models with incomplete treatment are investigated. It is assumed that the treated individuals may enter either the latent compartment due to the remainder of Mycobacterium tuberculosis or the infectious compartment due to the treatment failure. The first model is a simple one with treatment failure reflecting the current TB treatment fact in most countries with high tuberculosis incidence. The second model refines the simple one by dividing the latent compartment into slow and fast two kinds of progresses. This improvement can be used to describe the case that the latent TB individuals have been infected with some other chronic diseases (such as HIV and diabetes) which may weaken the immunity of infected individuals and shorten the latent period of TB. Both of the two models assume mass action incidence and exponential distributions of transfers between different compartments. The basic reproduction numbers of the two models are derived and their intuitive epidemiological interpretations are given. The global dynamics of two models are all proved by using Liapunov functions. At last, some strategies to control the spread of tuberculosis are discussed.

  17. Climatology of the HOPE-G global ocean general circulation model - Sea ice general circulation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Legutke, S. [Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ), Hamburg (Germany); Maier-Reimer, E. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany)

    1999-12-01

    The HOPE-G global ocean general circulation model (OGCM) climatology, obtained in a long-term forced integration is described. HOPE-G is a primitive-equation z-level ocean model which contains a dynamic-thermodynamic sea-ice model. It is formulated on a 2.8 grid with increased resolution in low latitudes in order to better resolve equatorial dynamics. The vertical resolution is 20 layers. The purpose of the integration was both to investigate the models ability to reproduce the observed general circulation of the world ocean and to obtain an initial state for coupled atmosphere - ocean - sea-ice climate simulations. The model was driven with daily mean data of a 15-year integration of the atmosphere general circulation model ECHAM4, the atmospheric component in later coupled runs. Thereby, a maximum of the flux variability that is expected to appear in coupled simulations is included already in the ocean spin-up experiment described here. The model was run for more than 2000 years until a quasi-steady state was achieved. It reproduces the major current systems and the main features of the so-called conveyor belt circulation. The observed distribution of water masses is reproduced reasonably well, although with a saline bias in the intermediate water masses and a warm bias in the deep and bottom water of the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. The model underestimates the meridional transport of heat in the Atlantic Ocean. The simulated heat transport in the other basins, though, is in good agreement with observations. (orig.)

  18. The role of aerosols in cloud drop parameterizations and its applications in global climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chuang, C.C.; Penner, J.E. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States)

    1996-04-01

    The characteristics of the cloud drop size distribution near cloud base are initially determined by aerosols that serve as cloud condensation nuclei and the updraft velocity. We have developed parameterizations relating cloud drop number concentration to aerosol number and sulfate mass concentrations and used them in a coupled global aerosol/general circulation model (GCM) to estimate the indirect aerosol forcing. The global aerosol model made use of our detailed emissions inventories for the amount of particulate matter from biomass burning sources and from fossil fuel sources as well as emissions inventories of the gas-phase anthropogenic SO{sub 2}. This work is aimed at validating the coupled model with the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program measurements and assessing the possible magnitude of the aerosol-induced cloud effects on climate.

  19. A Madden-Julian oscillation event realistically simulated by a global cloud-resolving model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miura, Hiroaki; Satoh, Masaki; Nasuno, Tomoe; Noda, Akira T; Oouchi, Kazuyoshi

    2007-12-14

    A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a massive weather event consisting of deep convection coupled with atmospheric circulation, moving slowly eastward over the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Despite its enormous influence on many weather and climate systems worldwide, it has proven very difficult to simulate an MJO because of assumptions about cumulus clouds in global meteorological models. Using a model that allows direct coupling of the atmospheric circulation and clouds, we successfully simulated the slow eastward migration of an MJO event. Topography, the zonal sea surface temperature gradient, and interplay between eastward- and westward-propagating signals controlled the timing of the eastward transition of the convective center. Our results demonstrate the potential making of month-long MJO predictions when global cloud-resolving models with realistic initial conditions are used.

  20. Governing and Managing Customer-initiated Engineering Change – An in-depth case study of a global industrial supplier

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sommer, Anita Friis; Storbjerg, Simon Haahr; Dukovska-Popovska, Iskra

    2013-01-01

    or externally by for instance customers. Managing initiated engineering changes is a vital source for improving product performance and radically reducing change costs. Customer-initiated engineering change is an area growing in importance decreasing product life cycles and increasing demand for customisation....... Through an in-depth case study, this paper investigates which process and what governance setup is appropriate to manage customer initiated engineering changes, referred to as request management. The paper includes a proposal for a request management framework and a task-based iterative process model...

  1. A Global Change in Higher Education: Entrepreneurial University Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Süreyya SAKINÇ

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Universities are affected by the social and economic diversity stemmed from globalization and internationalization, and its functions, area of responsibility, organizational structure, funding capability respond this diversity. In today's knowledge society, different new concepts regarding the university education system such as Entrepreneur University, Corporation University, virtual university etc. have been emerged with wave of globalization effect. The rising competition in academic education and the mass demands for education prompt to universities to get seeking new funds for fixing their financial situation, and hit them transforming into entrepreneurial identity. The reflections of neoliberal approach in education have transformed the universities into the corporations which are much more focused on entrepreneurial, student-oriented and aimed to appropriate education and producing creative human resources for global development. In this study, a comprehensive evaluation will be carried on regarding the entrepreneur university model through the litterateur research to investigate its causes and factors that impact and improve it. The aim of the paper is to generate a framework that identifies dynamic processes of entrepreneur university model, dependently the litterateur syntheses. The contribution of the paper will depend on its consequent argument that entrepreneur university model is viable for Turkey. In this paper, the entrepreneur university model will be analyzed by Triple Helix phenomenon with the comparative approach.

  2. Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    Andru?cã Maria Carmen

    2013-01-01

    The field of globalization has highlighted an interdependence implied by a more harmonious understanding determined by the daily interaction between nations through the inducement of peace and the management of streamlining and the effectiveness of the global economy. For the functioning of the globalization, the developing countries that can be helped by the developed ones must be involved. The international community can contribute to the institution of the development environment of the gl...

  3. Modulation of Soil Initial State on WRF Model Performance Over China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Haile; Jin, Qinjian; Yi, Bingqi; Mullendore, Gretchen L.; Zheng, Xiaohui; Jin, Hongchun

    2017-11-01

    The soil state (e.g., temperature and moisture) in a mesoscale numerical prediction model is typically initialized by reanalysis or analysis data that may be subject to large bias. Such bias may lead to unrealistic land-atmosphere interactions. This study shows that the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) dramatically underestimates soil temperature and overestimates soil moisture over most parts of China in the first (0-10 cm) and second (10-25 cm) soil layers compared to in situ observations in July 2013. A correction based on the global optimal dual kriging is employed to correct CFSR bias in soil temperature and moisture using in situ observations. To investigate the impacts of the corrected soil state on model forecasts, two numerical model simulations—a control run with CFSR soil state and a disturbed run with the corrected soil state—were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. All the simulations are initiated 4 times per day and run 48 h. Model results show that the corrected soil state, for example, warmer and drier surface over the most parts of China, can enhance evaporation over wet regions, which changes the overlying atmospheric temperature and moisture. The changes of the lifting condensation level, level of free convection, and water transport due to corrected soil state favor precipitation over wet regions, while prohibiting precipitation over dry regions. Moreover, diagnoses indicate that the remote moisture flux convergence plays a dominant role in the precipitation changes over the wet regions.

  4. Preparing the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) for global retrospective air quality modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    The US EPA has a plan to leverage recent advances in meteorological modeling to develop a "Next-Generation" air quality modeling system that will allow consistent modeling of problems from global to local scale. The meteorological model of choice is the Model for Predic...

  5. Le reporting extra-financier selon la Global reporting initiative à l’épreuve du greenwashing

    OpenAIRE

    Huguet, Ivan

    2016-01-01

    La présente contribution vise à offrir une meilleure compréhension du reporting extra-financier et des enjeux, qu’ils soient théoriques ou pratiques, sous-jacents à ce dernier. Par ailleurs, en explorant cette pratique aux contours flous qu’est le greenwashing, le présent texte vise également à déterminer la crédibilité qu’il est possible d’accorder aux rapports extra-financiers établis selon la Global reporting initiative.

  6. The future of the oceans past: towards a global marine historical research initiative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwerdtner Máñez, Kathleen; Holm, Poul; Blight, Louise; Coll, Marta; MacDiarmid, Alison; Ojaveer, Henn; Poulsen, Bo; Tull, Malcolm

    2014-01-01

    Historical research is playing an increasingly important role in marine sciences. Historical data are also used in policy making and marine resource management, and have helped to address the issue of shifting baselines for numerous species and ecosystems. Although many important research questions still remain unanswered, tremendous developments in conceptual and methodological approaches are expected to contribute to a comprehensive understanding of the global history of human interactions with life in the seas. Based on our experiences and knowledge from the "History of Marine Animal Populations" project, this paper identifies the emerging research topics for future historical marine research. It elaborates on concepts and tools which are expected to play a major role in answering these questions, and identifies geographical regions which deserve future attention from marine environmental historians and historical ecologists.

  7. Spatial modeling of agricultural land use change at global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meiyappan, P.; Dalton, M.; O'Neill, B. C.; Jain, A. K.

    2014-11-01

    Long-term modeling of agricultural land use is central in global scale assessments of climate change, food security, biodiversity, and climate adaptation and mitigation policies. We present a global-scale dynamic land use allocation model and show that it can reproduce the broad spatial features of the past 100 years of evolution of cropland and pastureland patterns. The modeling approach integrates economic theory, observed land use history, and data on both socioeconomic and biophysical determinants of land use change, and estimates relationships using long-term historical data, thereby making it suitable for long-term projections. The underlying economic motivation is maximization of expected profits by hypothesized landowners within each grid cell. The model predicts fractional land use for cropland and pastureland within each grid cell based on socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors that change with time. The model explicitly incorporates the following key features: (1) land use competition, (2) spatial heterogeneity in the nature of driving factors across geographic regions, (3) spatial heterogeneity in the relative importance of driving factors and previous land use patterns in determining land use allocation, and (4) spatial and temporal autocorrelation in land use patterns. We show that land use allocation approaches based solely on previous land use history (but disregarding the impact of driving factors), or those accounting for both land use history and driving factors by mechanistically fitting models for the spatial processes of land use change do not reproduce well long-term historical land use patterns. With an example application to the terrestrial carbon cycle, we show that such inaccuracies in land use allocation can translate into significant implications for global environmental assessments. The modeling approach and its evaluation provide an example that can be useful to the land use, Integrated Assessment, and the Earth system modeling

  8. Bioavailable atmospheric phosphorous supply to the global ocean: a 3-D global modeling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myriokefalitakis, Stelios; Nenes, Athanasios; Baker, Alex R.; Mihalopoulos, Nikolaos; Kanakidou, Maria

    2016-12-01

    The atmospheric cycle of phosphorus (P) is parameterized here in a state-of-the-art global 3-D chemistry transport model, taking into account primary emissions of total P (TP) and soluble P (DP) associated with mineral dust, combustion particles from natural and anthropogenic sources, bioaerosols, sea spray and volcanic aerosols. For the present day, global TP emissions are calculated to be roughly 1.33 Tg-P yr-1, with the mineral sources contributing more than 80 % to these emissions. The P solubilization from mineral dust under acidic atmospheric conditions is also parameterized in the model and is calculated to contribute about one-third (0.14 Tg-P yr-1) of the global DP atmospheric source. To our knowledge, a unique aspect of our global study is the explicit modeling of the evolution of phosphorus speciation in the atmosphere. The simulated present-day global annual DP deposition flux is 0.45 Tg-P yr-1 (about 40 % over oceans), showing a strong spatial and temporal variability. Present-day simulations of atmospheric P aerosol concentrations and deposition fluxes are satisfactory compared with available observations, indicating however an underestimate of about 70 % on current knowledge of the sources that drive the P atmospheric cycle. Sensitivity simulations using preindustrial (year 1850) anthropogenic and biomass burning emission scenarios showed a present-day increase of 75 % in the P solubilization flux from mineral dust, i.e., the rate at which P is converted into soluble forms, compared to preindustrial times, due to increasing atmospheric acidity over the last 150 years. Future reductions in air pollutants due to the implementation of air-quality regulations are expected to decrease the P solubilization flux from mineral dust by about 30 % in the year 2100 compared to the present day. Considering, however, that all the P contained in bioaerosols is readily available for uptake by marine organisms, and also accounting for all other DP sources, a total

  9. Global Fluxon Modeling of the Solar Corona and Inner Heliosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamb, D. A.; DeForest, C. E.

    2017-12-01

    The fluxon approach to MHD modeling enables simulations of low-beta plasmas in the absence of undesirable numerical effects such as diffusion and magnetic reconnection. The magnetic field can be modeled as a collection of discrete field lines ("fluxons") containing a set amount of magnetic flux in a prescribed field topology. Due to the fluxon model's pseudo-Lagrangian grid, simulations can be completed in a fraction of the time of traditional grid-based simulations, enabling near-real-time simulations of the global magnetic field structure and its influence on solar wind properties. Using SDO/HMI synoptic magnetograms as lower magnetic boundary conditions, and a separate one-dimensional fluid flow model attached to each fluxon, we compare the resulting fluxon relaxations with other commonly-used global models (such as PFSS), and with white-light images of the corona (including the August 2017 total solar eclipse). Finally, we show the computed magnetic field expansion ratio, and the modeled solar wind speed near the coronal-heliospheric transition. Development of the fluxon MHD model FLUX (the Field Line Universal relaXer), has been funded by NASA's Living with a Star program and by Southwest Research Institute.

  10. Global Bifurcation of a Novel Computer Virus Propagation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianguo Ren

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In a recent paper by J. Ren et al. (2012, a novel computer virus propagation model under the effect of the antivirus ability in a real network is established. The analysis there only partially uncovers the dynamics behaviors of virus spread over the network in the case where around bifurcation is local. In the present paper, by mathematical analysis, it is further shown that, under appropriate parameter values, the model may undergo a global B-T bifurcation, and the curves of saddle-node bifurcation, Hopf bifurcation, and homoclinic bifurcation are obtained to illustrate the qualitative behaviors of virus propagation. On this basis, a collection of policies is recommended to prohibit the virus prevalence. To our knowledge, this is the first time the global bifurcation has been explored for the computer virus propagation. Theoretical results and corresponding suggestions may help us suppress or eliminate virus propagation in the network.

  11. Integrated modeling of natural and human systems - problems and initiatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kessler, H.; Giles, J.; Gunnink, J.; Hughes, A.; Moore, R. V.; Peach, D.

    2009-12-01

    's system, e.g. the flow of groundwater to an abstraction borehole or the availability of water for irrigation. Particular problems arise when model data from two or more disciplines are incompatible in terms of data formats, scientific concepts or language. Other barriers include the cultural segregation within and between science disciplines as well as impediments to data exchange due to ownership and copyright restrictions. OpenMI and GeoSciML are initiatives that are trying to overcome these barriers by building international communities that share vocabularies and data formats. This paper will give examples of the successful merging of geological and hydrological models from the UK and the Netherlands and will introduce the vision of an open Environmental Modelling Platform which aims to link data, knowledge and concepts seamlessly to numerical process models. Last but not least there is an urgent need to create a Subsurface Management System akin to a Geographic Information System in which all results of subsurface modelling can be visualised and analysed in an integrated manner.

  12. Power Elites and Club-Model Governance in Global Finance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tsingou, Eleni

    2014-01-01

    Contribution to the Forum: Unpacking the Deep Structures of Global Governance: How Transnational Professionals Can Make Global Governance Intelligible.......Contribution to the Forum: Unpacking the Deep Structures of Global Governance: How Transnational Professionals Can Make Global Governance Intelligible....

  13. Global model for the lithospheric strength and effective elastic thickness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tesauro, Magdala; Kaban, Mikhail K.; Cloetingh, Sierd A. P. L.

    2013-08-01

    Global distribution of the strength and effective elastic thickness (Te) of the lithosphere are estimated using physical parameters from recent crustal and lithospheric models. For the Te estimation we apply a new approach, which provides a possibility to take into account variations of Young modulus (E) within the lithosphere. In view of the large uncertainties affecting strength estimates, we evaluate global strength and Te distributions for possible end-member 'hard' (HRM) and a 'soft' (SRM) rheology models of the continental crust. Temperature within the lithosphere has been estimated using a recent tomography model of Ritsema et al. (2011), which has much higher horizontal resolution than previous global models. Most of the strength is localized in the crust for the HRM and in the mantle for the SRM. These results contribute to the long debates on applicability of the "crème brulée" or "jelly-sandwich" model for the lithosphere structure. Changing from the SRM to HRM turns most of the continental areas from the totally decoupled mode to the fully coupled mode of the lithospheric layers. However, in the areas characterized by a high thermal regime and thick crust, the layers remain decoupled even for the HRM. At the same time, for the inner part of the cratons the lithospheric layers are coupled in both models. Therefore, rheological variations lead to large changes in the integrated strength and Te distribution in the regions characterized by intermediate thermal conditions. In these areas temperature uncertainties have a greater effect, since this parameter principally determines rheological behavior. Comparison of the Te estimates for both models with those determined from the flexural loading and spectral analysis shows that the 'hard' rheology is likely applicable for cratonic areas, whereas the 'soft' rheology is more representative for young orogens.

  14. Comparison of different initiation protocols in the resistant hepatocyte model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Espandiari, Parvaneh; Robertson, Larry W.; Srinivasan, Cidambi; Glauert, Howard P.

    2005-01-01

    Several models in rat liver have been developed to study multistage carcinogenesis, including the Solt-Farber resistant hepatocyte model. In this model, initiation consists of either a necrogenic dose of a hepatocarcinogen or a non-necrogenic dose in conjunction with partial hepatectomy (PH). As an alternative to PH, we investigated two different procedures: fasting for 96 h followed by refeeding, or the use of one-day-old neonates. Male Fisher 344 rats were injected p.o. with diethylnitrosamine (DEN) (0, 20, or 100 mg/kg) 24 h after refeeding or PH (controls received DEN alone with no proliferative stimulus). For the neonatal group, male and female Fisher 344 rats were treated with DEN (0 or 20 mg/kg, i.p.) at one day of age. All initiated animals were treated at the same age (11 weeks) with the following selection agents: three daily doses of 2-acetylaminofluorene (AAF) (30 mg/kg), followed by a single dose of carbon tetrachloride (2 ml/kg), followed by three additional daily treatments of AAF (30 mg/kg). Rats were euthanized 2 weeks after the last AAF injection. The PH, neonatal male, and neonatal female groups receiving DEN developed more γ-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT)-positive foci per cubic centimeter and foci per liver as compared to untreated rats receiving the same proliferative stimulus, whereas the fasting/refeeding group and the group receiving no proliferative stimulus did not. All DEN-treated groups receiving one of the proliferative stimuli had more foci per cubic centimeter than the DEN-treated group receiving no proliferative stimulus. The volume fractions of GGT-positive foci in the PH/DEN and neonatal male/DEN groups were higher than those of both the DEN-treated group receiving no proliferative stimulus and the groups receiving the same proliferative stimulus without DEN. In neonatal females-receiving DEN, the volume fraction was not different from either neonatal females not receiving DEN or DEN-treated rats receiving no proliferative

  15. An Effective Model for Improving Global Health Nursing Competence

    OpenAIRE

    Sunjoo Kang

    2016-01-01

    This paper proposed an effective model for improving global health nursing competence among undergraduate students. A descriptive case study was conducted by evaluation of four implemented programs by the author. All programs were conducted with students majoring in nursing and healthcare, where the researcher was a program director, professor, or facilitator. These programs were analyzed in terms of students’ needs assessment, program design, and implementation and evaluation factors. The co...

  16. Global tropospheric ozone modeling: Quantifying errors due to grid resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wild, Oliver; Prather, Michael J.

    2006-06-01

    Ozone production in global chemical models is dependent on model resolution because ozone chemistry is inherently nonlinear, the timescales for chemical production are short, and precursors are artificially distributed over the spatial scale of the model grid. In this study we examine the sensitivity of ozone, its precursors, and its production to resolution by running a global chemical transport model at four different resolutions between T21 (5.6° × 5.6°) and T106 (1.1° × 1.1°) and by quantifying the errors in regional and global budgets. The sensitivity to vertical mixing through the parameterization of boundary layer turbulence is also examined. We find less ozone production in the boundary layer at higher resolution, consistent with slower chemical production in polluted emission regions and greater export of precursors. Agreement with ozonesonde and aircraft measurements made during the NASA TRACE-P campaign over the western Pacific in spring 2001 is consistently better at higher resolution. We demonstrate that the numerical errors in transport processes on a given resolution converge geometrically for a tracer at successively higher resolutions. The convergence in ozone production on progressing from T21 to T42, T63, and T106 resolution is likewise monotonic but indicates that there are still large errors at 120 km scales, suggesting that T106 resolution is too coarse to resolve regional ozone production. Diagnosing the ozone production and precursor transport that follow a short pulse of emissions over east Asia in springtime allows us to quantify the impacts of resolution on both regional and global ozone. Production close to continental emission regions is overestimated by 27% at T21 resolution, by 13% at T42 resolution, and by 5% at T106 resolution. However, subsequent ozone production in the free troposphere is not greatly affected. We find that the export of short-lived precursors such as NOx by convection is overestimated at coarse resolution.

  17. An alternative ionospheric correction model for global navigation satellite systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoque, M. M.; Jakowski, N.

    2015-04-01

    The ionosphere is recognized as a major error source for single-frequency operations of global navigation satellite systems (GNSS). To enhance single-frequency operations the global positioning system (GPS) uses an ionospheric correction algorithm (ICA) driven by 8 coefficients broadcasted in the navigation message every 24 h. Similarly, the global navigation satellite system Galileo uses the electron density NeQuick model for ionospheric correction. The Galileo satellite vehicles (SVs) transmit 3 ionospheric correction coefficients as driver parameters of the NeQuick model. In the present work, we propose an alternative ionospheric correction algorithm called Neustrelitz TEC broadcast model NTCM-BC that is also applicable for global satellite navigation systems. Like the GPS ICA or Galileo NeQuick, the NTCM-BC can be optimized on a daily basis by utilizing GNSS data obtained at the previous day at monitor stations. To drive the NTCM-BC, 9 ionospheric correction coefficients need to be uploaded to the SVs for broadcasting in the navigation message. Our investigation using GPS data of about 200 worldwide ground stations shows that the 24-h-ahead prediction performance of the NTCM-BC is better than the GPS ICA and comparable to the Galileo NeQuick model. We have found that the 95 percentiles of the prediction error are about 16.1, 16.1 and 13.4 TECU for the GPS ICA, Galileo NeQuick and NTCM-BC, respectively, during a selected quiet ionospheric period, whereas the corresponding numbers are found about 40.5, 28.2 and 26.5 TECU during a selected geomagnetic perturbed period. However, in terms of complexity the NTCM-BC is easier to handle than the Galileo NeQuick and in this respect comparable to the GPS ICA.

  18. Globalization and migration: A "unified brain drain" model

    OpenAIRE

    Brezis, Elise S.; Soueri, Ariel

    2012-01-01

    Globalization has led to a vast flow of migration of workers but also of students. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the migration of individuals encompassing decisions already at the level of education. We develop a unified brain drain model that incorporates the decisions of an individual vis - à - vis both education and migration. In the empirical part, this paper addresses international flows of migration within the EU and presents strong evidence of concentration of students in cou...

  19. Targeting the right input data to improve crop modeling at global level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adam, M.; Robertson, R.; Gbegbelegbe, S.; Jones, J. W.; Boote, K. J.; Asseng, S.

    2012-12-01

    practices, initial soil conditions, and soil characteristics information. Management practices were represented by planting date and the amount of fertilizer, initial conditions estimates for initial nitrogen, soil water, and stable soil carbon, and soil information is based on a simplified version of the WISE database, characterized by soil organic matter, texture and soil depth. We considered these factors as the most important determinants of nutrient supply to crops during their growing season. Our first global results demonstrate that the model is most sensitive to the initial conditions in terms of soil carbon and nitrogen (CN): wheat yields decreased by 45% when soil CN is null and increase by 15% when twice the soil CN content of the reference run is used. The yields did not appear to be very sensitive to initial soil water conditions, varying from 0% yield increase when initial soil water is set to wilting point to 6% yield increase when it was set to field capacity. They are slightly sensitive to nitrogen application: 8% yield decrease when no N is applied to 9% yield increase when 150 kg.ha-1 is applied. However, with closer examination of results, the model is more sensitive to nitrogen application than to initial soil CN content in Vietnam, Thailand and Japan compared to the rest of the world. More analyses per region and results on the planting dates and soil properties will be presented.

  20. An Analysis of Yip's Global Strategy Model, Using Coca-Cola ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Analysis of the selected business cases suggest a weak fit between the Yip model of a truly Global strategy ... like Coca-Cola in the beverage industry for effective implementation of a global strategy. ... Keywords: Global Strategy, Leadership.

  1. Optimizing Global Coronal Magnetic Field Models Using Image-Based Constraints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones-Mecholsky, Shaela I.; Davila, Joseph M.; Uritskiy, Vadim

    2016-01-01

    The coronal magnetic field directly or indirectly affects a majority of the phenomena studied in the heliosphere. It provides energy for coronal heating, controls the release of coronal mass ejections, and drives heliospheric and magnetospheric activity, yet the coronal magnetic field itself has proven difficult to measure. This difficulty has prompted a decades-long effort to develop accurate, timely, models of the field, an effort that continues today. We have developed a method for improving global coronal magnetic field models by incorporating the type of morphological constraints that could be derived from coronal images. Here we report promising initial tests of this approach on two theoretical problems, and discuss opportunities for application.

  2. Global Least-cost User-friendly CLEWs Open-Source Exploratory (GLUCOSE) Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taliotis, Constantinos; Roehrl, Richard Alexander; Howells, Mark

    2016-04-01

    A changing climate will force us to consider broad resource management questions. Land, energy and water are some of our most precious resources. The systems that provide them are highly interlinked, vulnerable and contribute to climate change. The UN recognizes the need for integrated assessment of the food-water-energy nexus in international negotiations; highlighted by the inclusion of the Climate, Land-use, Energy and Water (CLEW) nexus in the upcoming Global Sustainable Development Report. This effort provides a toolkit to assist in the formulation of climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. Building on initial CLEW assessments, we propose the formulation of a fully integrated CLEW modelling tool to enable resource assessments, a global CLEW model, and focusing on scenarios with particular relevance to the climate change and sustainable development discourse. The aim of the overall effort is to create a transparent tool to act as a simplified testing ground for policies and allow the visualisation and assessment of different policy pathways in regards to sustainable development on a global scale. This tool will allow for the identification of potential trade-offs and synergies between sectors in CLEWs and material industry. It should be highlighted that we refrain from implying that this model will be characterized by a high predictive capacity; on the contrary, its main purpose is to provide an initial set of communicable insights and indications to facilitate decision-making on potential plans and strategies.

  3. Forced sexual initiation, sexual intimate partner violence and HIV risk in women: A global review of the literature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stockman, Jamila K.; Lucea, Marguerite B.; Campbell, Jacquelyn C.

    2012-01-01

    Coerced or forced sexual initiation and sexual intimate partner violence (sexual IPV) contribute significantly to a woman’s risk for HIV infection. This review systematically examines global research (n=21 studies) published since 2000 on the role of coerced/forced sexual initiation and sexual IPV on HIV risk in women. In predominantly low- and middle-income countries, coerced/forced sexual initiation was associated with HIV/STIs, multiple and high-risk sex partners, and no condom use. Most studies using behaviorally specific terms for sexual IPV found strong associations between sexual IPV and HIV risk behaviors. In contrast, studies using less specific definitions often failed to find these significant associations. To develop more comprehensive HIV prevention programs, future efforts should integrate behaviorally specific terms into assessing prevalence of sexual IPV and its association with HIV risk, consider cultural differences, and identify causal pathways between coerced or forced sexual initiation, HIV risk behaviors and HIV/STI infection. PMID:23143750

  4. Global sensitivity analysis of computer models with functional inputs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iooss, Bertrand; Ribatet, Mathieu

    2009-01-01

    Global sensitivity analysis is used to quantify the influence of uncertain model inputs on the response variability of a numerical model. The common quantitative methods are appropriate with computer codes having scalar model inputs. This paper aims at illustrating different variance-based sensitivity analysis techniques, based on the so-called Sobol's indices, when some model inputs are functional, such as stochastic processes or random spatial fields. In this work, we focus on large cpu time computer codes which need a preliminary metamodeling step before performing the sensitivity analysis. We propose the use of the joint modeling approach, i.e., modeling simultaneously the mean and the dispersion of the code outputs using two interlinked generalized linear models (GLMs) or generalized additive models (GAMs). The 'mean model' allows to estimate the sensitivity indices of each scalar model inputs, while the 'dispersion model' allows to derive the total sensitivity index of the functional model inputs. The proposed approach is compared to some classical sensitivity analysis methodologies on an analytical function. Lastly, the new methodology is applied to an industrial computer code that simulates the nuclear fuel irradiation.

  5. GLOFRIM v1.0-A globally applicable computational framework for integrated hydrological-hydrodynamic modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoch, Jannis M.; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Baart, Fedor; Van Beek, Rens; Winsemius, Hessel C.; Bates, Paul D.; Bierkens, Marc F.P.

    2017-01-01

    We here present GLOFRIM, a globally applicable computational framework for integrated hydrological-hydrodynamic modelling. GLOFRIM facilitates spatially explicit coupling of hydrodynamic and hydrologic models and caters for an ensemble of models to be coupled. It currently encompasses the global

  6. Global sensitivity analysis of a dynamic model for gene expression in Drosophila embryos

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCarthy, Gregory D.; Drewell, Robert A.

    2015-01-01

    It is well known that gene regulation is a tightly controlled process in early organismal development. However, the roles of key processes involved in this regulation, such as transcription and translation, are less well understood, and mathematical modeling approaches in this field are still in their infancy. In recent studies, biologists have taken precise measurements of protein and mRNA abundance to determine the relative contributions of key factors involved in regulating protein levels in mammalian cells. We now approach this question from a mathematical modeling perspective. In this study, we use a simple dynamic mathematical model that incorporates terms representing transcription, translation, mRNA and protein decay, and diffusion in an early Drosophila embryo. We perform global sensitivity analyses on this model using various different initial conditions and spatial and temporal outputs. Our results indicate that transcription and translation are often the key parameters to determine protein abundance. This observation is in close agreement with the experimental results from mammalian cells for various initial conditions at particular time points, suggesting that a simple dynamic model can capture the qualitative behavior of a gene. Additionally, we find that parameter sensitivites are temporally dynamic, illustrating the importance of conducting a thorough global sensitivity analysis across multiple time points when analyzing mathematical models of gene regulation. PMID:26157608

  7. The Global Threat Reduction Initiative's Return of Highly Enriched Uranium from Chile

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Messick, C.E.; Dickerson, S.L.; Greenberg, R.F. Jr. [U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration, Washington D.C. (United States); Andes, T.C. [Y-12 National Security Complex, Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2011-07-01

    In March 2010, the U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration's Office of Global Threat Reduction (GTRI), in collaboration with the Chilean Nuclear Energy Commission (CCHEN), completed a shipment of 18.2 kilograms of non-U.S.-origin highly enriched uranium (HEU) to the United States. The HEU was in the form of 71 aluminium-clad material test reactor (MTR) fuel elements and was the first GTRI Gap Program shipment that included non-U.S. origin irradiated nuclear fuel. Although shipments of research reactor fuels are not unique, this shipment served as a cornerstone to the first Presidential Nuclear Security Summit held in Washington, D.C., in April 2010. Carrying out the shipment became critical when a severe earthquake struck Chile just one day before the shipment was to occur. As the fuel had already been packaged in casks and the ocean vessels were nearing the port, U.S. and Chilean officials decided that it was most imperative that the shipment continue as planned. After careful analysis of the situation, inspection of the transportation packages, roadways, and port services, the shipment team was able to make the shipment occur in a safe and secure manner. This paper describes the loading activities at both the RECH-1 and RECH-2 reactors as well as the transportation of the loaded casks to the port of departure. (author)

  8. www.elearnSCI.org: a global educational initiative of ISCoS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chhabra, H S; Harvey, L A; Muldoon, S; Chaudhary, S; Arora, M; Brown, D J; Biering-Sorensen, F; Wyndaele, J J; Charlifue, S; Horsewell, J; Ducharme, S; Green, D; Simpson, D; Glinsky, J; Weerts, E; Upadhyay, N; Aito, S; Wing, P; Katoh, S; Kovindha, A; Krassioukov, A; Weeks, C; Srikumar, V; Reeves, R; Siriwardane, C; Hasnan, N; Kalke, Y B; Lanig, I

    2013-03-01

    To develop a web-based educational resource for health professionals responsible for the management of spinal cord injury (SCI). The resource:www.elearnSCI.org is comprised of seven learning modules, each subdivided into various submodules. Six of the seven modules address the educational needs of all disciplines involved in comprehensive SCI management. The seventh module addresses prevention of SCI. Each submodule includes an overview, activities, self-assessment questions and references. Three hundred and thirty-two experts from The International Spinal Cord Society (ISCoS) and various affiliated societies from 36 countries were involved in developing the resource through 28 subcommittees. The content of each submodule was reviewed and approved by the Education and Scientific Committees of ISCoS and finally by an Editorial Committee of 23 experts. The content of the learning modules is relevant to students and to new as well as experienced SCI healthcare professionals. The content is applicable globally, has received consumer input and is available at no cost. The material is presented on a website underpinned by a sophisticated content-management system, which allows easy maintenance and ready update of all the content. The resource conforms to key principles of e-learning, including appropriateness of curriculum, engagement of learners, innovative approaches, effective learning, ease of use, inclusion, assessment, coherence, consistency, transparency, cost effectiveness and feedback. www.elearnSCI.org provides a cost effective way of training healthcare professionals that goes beyond the textbook and traditional face-to-face teaching.

  9. Modeling initial contact dynamics during ambulation with dynamic simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Andrew R; Wang, Mei; Smith, Peter A; Harris, Gerald F

    2007-04-01

    Ankle-foot orthoses are frequently used interventions to correct pathological gait. Their effects on the kinematics and kinetics of the proximal joints are of great interest when prescribing ankle-foot orthoses to specific patient groups. Mathematical Dynamic Model (MADYMO) is developed to simulate motor vehicle crash situations and analyze tissue injuries of the occupants based multibody dynamic theories. Joint kinetics output from an inverse model were perturbed and input to the forward model to examine the effects of changes in the internal sagittal ankle moment on knee and hip kinematics following heel strike. Increasing the internal ankle moment (augmentation, equivalent to gastroc-soleus contraction) produced less pronounced changes in kinematic results at the hip, knee and ankle than decreasing the moment (attenuation, equivalent to gastroc-soleus relaxation). Altering the internal ankle moment produced two distinctly different kinematic curve morphologies at the hip. Decreased internal ankle moments increased hip flexion, peaking at roughly 8% of the gait cycle. Increasing internal ankle moments decreased hip flexion to a lesser degree, and approached normal at the same point in the gait cycle. Increasing the internal ankle moment produced relatively small, well-behaved extension-biased kinematic results at the knee. Decreasing the internal ankle moment produced more substantial changes in knee kinematics towards flexion that increased with perturbation magnitude. Curve morphologies were similar to those at the hip. Immediately following heel strike, kinematic results at the ankle showed movement in the direction of the internal moment perturbation. Increased internal moments resulted in kinematic patterns that rapidly approach normal after initial differences. When the internal ankle moment was decreased, differences from normal were much greater and did not rapidly decrease. This study shows that MADYMO can be successfully applied to accomplish forward

  10. Global climate model performance over Alaska and Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Walsh, John E.; Chapman, William L.; Romanovsky, Vladimir

    2008-01-01

    The performance of a set of 15 global climate models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project is evaluated for Alaska and Greenland, and compared with the performance over broader pan-Arctic and Northern Hemisphere extratropical domains. Root-mean-square errors relative to the 1958...... to narrowing the uncertainty and obtaining more robust estimates of future climate change in regions such as Alaska, Greenland, and the broader Arctic....... of the models are generally much larger than the biases of the composite output, indicating that the systematic errors differ considerably among the models. There is a tendency for the models with smaller errors to simulate a larger greenhouse warming over the Arctic, as well as larger increases of Arctic...

  11. Mapping the global depth to bedrock for land surface modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shangguan, W.; Hengl, T.; Yuan, H.; Dai, Y. J.; Zhang, S.

    2017-12-01

    Depth to bedrock serves as the lower boundary of land surface models, which controls hydrologic and biogeochemical processes. This paper presents a framework for global estimation of Depth to bedrock (DTB). Observations were extracted from a global compilation of soil profile data (ca. 130,000 locations) and borehole data (ca. 1.6 million locations). Additional pseudo-observations generated by expert knowledge were added to fill in large sampling gaps. The model training points were then overlaid on a stack of 155 covariates including DEM-based hydrological and morphological derivatives, lithologic units, MODIS surfacee reflectance bands and vegetation indices derived from the MODIS land products. Global spatial prediction models were developed using random forests and Gradient Boosting Tree algorithms. The final predictions were generated at the spatial resolution of 250m as an ensemble prediction of the two independently fitted models. The 10-fold cross-validation shows that the models explain 59% for absolute DTB and 34% for censored DTB (depths deep than 200 cm are predicted as 200 cm). The model for occurrence of R horizon (bedrock) within 200 cm does a good job. Visual comparisons of predictions in the study areas where more detailed maps of depth to bedrock exist show that there is a general match with spatial patterns from similar local studies. Limitation of the data set and extrapolation in data spare areas should not be ignored in applications. To improve accuracy of spatial prediction, more borehole drilling logs will need to be added to supplement the existing training points in under-represented areas.

  12. Improved data for integrated modeling of global environmental change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2011-12-01

    The assessment of global environmental changes, their impact on human societies, and possible management options requires large-scale, integrated modeling efforts. These models have to link biophysical with socio-economic processes, and they have to take spatial heterogeneity of environmental conditions into account. Land use change and freshwater use are two key research areas where spatial aggregation and the use of regional average numbers may lead to biased results. Useful insights can only be obtained if processes like economic globalization can be consistently linked to local environmental conditions and resource constraints (Lambin and Meyfroidt 2011). Spatially explicit modeling of environmental changes at the global scale has a long tradition in the natural sciences (Woodward et al 1995, Alcamo et al 1996, Leemans et al 1996). Socio-economic models with comparable spatial detail, e.g. on grid-based land use change, are much less common (Heistermann et al 2006), but are increasingly being developed (Popp et al 2011, Schneider et al 2011). Spatially explicit models require spatially explicit input data, which often constrains their development and application at the global scale. The amount and quality of available data on environmental conditions is growing fast—primarily due to improved earth observation methods. Moreover, systematic efforts for collecting and linking these data across sectors are on the way (www.earthobservations.org). This has, among others, also helped to provide consistent databases on different land cover and land use types (Erb et al 2007). However, spatially explicit data on specific anthropogenic driving forces of global environmental change are still scarce—also because these cannot be collected with satellites or other devices. The basic data on socio-economic driving forces, i.e. population density and wealth (measured as gross domestic product per capita), have been prepared for spatially explicit analyses (CIESIN, IFPRI

  13. Monte Carlo climate change forecasts with a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cubasch, U.; Santer, B.D.; Hegerl, G.; Hoeck, H.; Maier-Reimer, E.; Mikolajwicz, U.; Stoessel, A.; Voss, R.

    1992-01-01

    The Monte Carlo approach, which has increasingly been used during the last decade in the field of extended range weather forecasting, has been applied for climate change experiments. Four integrations with a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model have been started from different initial conditions, but with the same greenhouse gas forcing according to the IPCC scenario A. All experiments have been run for a period of 50 years. The results indicate that the time evolution of the global mean warming depends strongly on the initial state of the climate system. It can vary between 6 and 31 years. The Monte Carlo approach delivers information about both the mean response and the statistical significance of the response. While the individual members of the ensemble show a considerable variation in the climate change pattern of temperature after 50 years, the ensemble mean climate change pattern closely resembles the pattern obtained in a 100 year integration and is, at least over most of the land areas, statistically significant. The ensemble averaged sea-level change due to thermal expansion is significant in the global mean and locally over wide regions of the Pacific. The hydrological cycle is also significantly enhanced in the global mean, but locally the changes in precipitation and soil moisture are masked by the variability of the experiments. (orig.)

  14. Tradução e adaptação cultural do global appraisal of individual needs - initial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heloísa Garcia Claro

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Este estudo objetivou traduzir e adaptar culturalmente o instrumento Global Appraisal of Individual Needs - Initial e calcular seu Índice de Validade de Conteúdo. Trata-se de estudo metodológico, de adaptação cultural do instrumento. O instrumento foi traduzido para o português em duas versões que deram origem à síntese das traduções, submetida à avaliação de quatro juízes experts na área de álcool e outras drogas. Após modificações, foi retraduzido e ressubmetido aos juízes e autores do instrumento original, resultando na versão final do instrumento, Avaliação Global das Necessidades Individuais - Inicial O Índice de Validade de Conteúdo do instrumento foi de 0,91, considerado válido pela literatura. O instrumento Avaliação Global das Necessidades Individuais - Inicial é um instrumento adaptado culturalmente para o português falado no Brasil; entretanto, não foi submetido a testes com a população-alvo, o que sugere que sejam realizados estudos que testem sua confiabilidade e validade.

  15. Status, progress and plans for the U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration, Global Threat Reduction Initiative

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bieniawski, Andrew

    2005-01-01

    This presentation discusses the efforts under the US Department of Energy/National Nuclear Security Administration's Global Threat Reduction Initiative, also known as GTRI. On May 26, 2004, then Secretary of Energy Abraham established GTRI. GTRI is a cooperative program to provide international support for countries' national programs to identify, secure, recover or facilitate the disposition of vulnerable nuclear and radiological materials around the world that pose a potential threat to the international community. The formation of GTRI consolidated a number of nonproliferation programs you may be familiar with that work together to minimize and, to the extent possible, eliminate the use of highly enriched uranium (HEU) in civil nuclear applications worldwide. In particular, the Office of Global Threat Reduction, which was set up to implement GTRI, has oversight of the Reduced Enrichment for Research and Test Reactors program, the Foreign Research Reactor Spent Nuclear Fuel Acceptance program, and the Russian Research Reactor Fuel Return program. This consolidation allows these three programs to work in concert to bring about the elimination of research reactor materials as a source of proliferation concern. This speech is highlighting the work that these programs have undertaken in cooperation with the global research reactor community and the importance placed on fuel development under the RERTR program It contains an update on the work done to support the US - Russian Presidential Bratislava Summit Statement

  16. Global Stability of an Epidemic Model of Computer Virus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaofan Yang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available With the rapid popularization of the Internet, computers can enter or leave the Internet increasingly frequently. In fact, no antivirus software can detect and remove all sorts of computer viruses. This implies that viruses would persist on the Internet. To better understand the spread of computer viruses in these situations, a new propagation model is established and analyzed. The unique equilibrium of the model is globally asymptotically stable, in accordance with the reality. A parameter analysis of the equilibrium is also conducted.

  17. Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model 2010 Version: Users Guide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Justh, H. L.

    2014-01-01

    This Technical Memorandum (TM) presents the Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model 2010 (Mars-GRAM 2010) and its new features. Mars-GRAM is an engineering-level atmospheric model widely used for diverse mission applications. Applications include systems design, performance analysis, and operations planning for aerobraking, entry, descent and landing, and aerocapture. Additionally, this TM includes instructions on obtaining the Mars-GRAM source code and data files as well as running Mars-GRAM. It also contains sample Mars-GRAM input and output files and an example of how to incorporate Mars-GRAM as an atmospheric subroutine in a trajectory code.

  18. Mountains on Io: High-resolution Galileo observations, initial interpretations, and formation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turtle, E.P.; Jaeger, W.L.; Keszthelyi, L.P.; McEwen, A.S.; Milazzo, M.; Moore, J.; Phillips, C.B.; Radebaugh, J.; Simonelli, D.; Chuang, F.; Schuster, P.; Alexander, D.D.A.; Capraro, K.; Chang, S.-H.; Chen, A.C.; Clark, J.; Conner, D.L.; Culver, A.; Handley, T.H.; Jensen, D.N.; Knight, D.D.; LaVoie, S.K.; McAuley, M.; Mego, V.; Montoya, O.; Mortensen, H.B.; Noland, S.J.; Patel, R.R.; Pauro, T.M.; Stanley, C.L.; Steinwand, D.J.; Thaller, T.F.; Woncik, P.J.; Yagi, G.M.; Yoshimizu, J.R.; Alvarez Del Castillo, E.M.; Beyer, R.; Branston, D.; Fishburn, M.B.; Muller, Birgit; Ragan, R.; Samarasinha, N.; Anger, C.D.; Cunningham, C.; Little, B.; Arriola, S.; Carr, M.H.; Asphaug, E.; Morrison, D.; Rages, K.; Banfield, D.; Bell, M.; Burns, J.A.; Carcich, B.; Clark, B.; Currier, N.; Dauber, I.; Gierasch, P.J.; Helfenstein, P.; Mann, M.; Othman, O.; Rossier, L.; Solomon, N.; Sullivan, R.; Thomas, P.C.; Veverka, J.; Becker, T.; Edwards, K.; Gaddis, L.; Kirk, R.; Lee, E.; Rosanova, T.; Sucharski, R.M.; Beebe, R.F.; Simon, A.; Belton, M.J.S.; Bender, K.; Fagents, S.; Figueredo, P.; Greeley, R.; Homan, K.; Kadel, S.; Kerr, J.; Klemaszewski, J.; Lo, E.; Schwarz, W.; Williams, D.; Williams, K.; Bierhaus, B.; Brooks, S.; Chapman, C.R.; Merline, B.; Keller, J.; Tamblyn, P.; Bouchez, A.; Dyundian, U.; Ingersoll, A.P.; Showman, A.; Spitale, J.; Stewart, S.; Vasavada, A.; Breneman, H.H.; Cunningham, W.F.; Johnson, T.V.; Jones, T.J.; Kaufman, J.M.; Klaasen, K.P.; Levanas, G.; Magee, K.P.; Meredith, M.K.; Orton, G.S.; Senske, D.A.; West, A.; Winther, D.; Collins, G.; Fripp, W.J.; Head, J. W.; Pappalardo, R.; Pratt, S.; Prockter, L.; Spaun, N.; Colvin, T.; Davies, M.; DeJong, E.M.; Hall, J.; Suzuki, S.; Gorjian, Z.; Denk, T.; Giese, B.; Koehler, U.; Neukum, G.; Oberst, J.; Roatsch, T.; Tost, W.; Wagner, R.; Dieter, N.; Durda, D.; Geissler, P.; Greenberg, R.J.; Hoppa, G.; Plassman, J.; Tufts, R.; Fanale, F.P.; Granahan, J.C.

    2001-01-01

    During three close flybys in late 1999 and early 2000 the Galileo spacecraft ac-quired new observations of the mountains that tower above Io's surface. These images have revealed surprising variety in the mountains' morphologies. They range from jagged peaks several kilometers high to lower, rounded structures. Some are very smooth, others are covered by numerous parallel ridges. Many mountains have margins that are collapsing outward in large landslides or series of slump blocks, but a few have steep, scalloped scarps. From these observations we can gain insight into the structure and material properties of Io's crust as well as into the erosional processes acting on Io. We have also investigated formation mechanisms proposed for these structures using finite-element analysis. Mountain formation might be initiated by global compression due to the high rate of global subsidence associated with Io's high resurfacing rate; however, our models demonstrate that this hypothesis lacks a mechanism for isolating the mountains. The large fraction (???40%) of mountains that are associated with paterae suggests that in some cases these features are tectonically related. Therefore we have also simulated the stresses induced in Io's crust by a combination of a thermal upwelling in the mantle with global lithospheric compression and have shown that this can focus compressional stresses. If this mechanism is responsible for some of Io's mountains, it could also explain the common association of mountains with paterae. Copyright 2001 by the American Geophysical Union.

  19. Introductory remarks at the Global Threat Reduction Initiative Partners Conference (GTRI). 18 September 2004, Vienna, Austria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    ElBaradei, M.

    2004-01-01

    The security of nuclear and other radioactive material has taken on dramatically heightened significance in recent years, due to a number of factors: first, the increasing awareness that nuclear weapons related 'know-how' is no longer confined to a relatively few countries; second, the uncovering of an illicit procurement network capable of supplying nuclear designs and equipment; and third, the rise of extremist groups that have demonstrated an interest in obtaining and using nuclear and radiological weapons. Against this background, the need to protect nuclear material and facilities, and to control nuclear material and radioactive sources, has become an ever more global priority. The IAEA has been active in the field of nuclear security for many years, but the urgency and scope of our efforts underwent a 'sea-change' in the months following September 2001. International cooperation has become the hallmark of these security efforts. While nuclear security is and should remain a national responsibility, many countries still lack the programmes and the resources to respond properly to the threat of nuclear and radiological terrorism. International efforts are focused both on assisting these countries in strengthening their programmes, and on building global networks for combating cross-border threats. The Agency's work has three main points of focus: prevention, detection and response. Our first objective is to assist States in preventing any illicit or non-peaceful use of nuclear or other radioactive materials - including acts of terrorism. This requires effective physical protection of nuclear materials in use, storage and transport, as well as protection of related nuclear facilities. It demands strong State programmes for accounting and control of nuclear material. It recognizes the benefits of the conversion of research reactors to use low enriched uranium a process that requires substantial funding and, in some cases, the development of technological

  20. Global atmospheric model for mercury including oxidation by bromine atoms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. D. Holmes

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Global models of atmospheric mercury generally assume that gas-phase OH and ozone are the main oxidants converting Hg0 to HgII and thus driving mercury deposition to ecosystems. However, thermodynamic considerations argue against the importance of these reactions. We demonstrate here the viability of atomic bromine (Br as an alternative Hg0 oxidant. We conduct a global 3-D simulation with the GEOS-Chem model assuming gas-phase Br to be the sole Hg0 oxidant (Hg + Br model and compare to the previous version of the model with OH and ozone as the sole oxidants (Hg + OH/O3 model. We specify global 3-D Br concentration fields based on our best understanding of tropospheric and stratospheric Br chemistry. In both the Hg + Br and Hg + OH/O3 models, we add an aqueous photochemical reduction of HgII in cloud to impose a tropospheric lifetime for mercury of 6.5 months against deposition, as needed to reconcile observed total gaseous mercury (TGM concentrations with current estimates of anthropogenic emissions. This added reduction would not be necessary in the Hg + Br model if we adjusted the Br oxidation kinetics downward within their range of uncertainty. We find that the Hg + Br and Hg + OH/O3 models are equally capable of reproducing the spatial distribution of TGM and its seasonal cycle at northern mid-latitudes. The Hg + Br model shows a steeper decline of TGM concentrations from the tropics to southern mid-latitudes. Only the Hg + Br model can reproduce the springtime depletion and summer rebound of TGM observed at polar sites; the snowpack component of GEOS-Chem suggests that 40% of HgII deposited to snow in the Arctic is transferred to the ocean and land reservoirs, amounting to a net deposition flux to the Arctic of 60 Mg a−1. Summertime events of depleted Hg0 at Antarctic sites due to subsidence are much better simulated by