WorldWideScience

Sample records for global long-term energy

  1. Long-term global nuclear energy and fuel cycle strategies

    Krakowski, R.A.

    1997-01-01

    The Global Nuclear Vision Project is examining, using scenario building techniques, a range of long-term nuclear energy futures. The exploration and assessment of optimal nuclear fuel-cycle and material strategies is an essential element of the study. To this end, an established global E 3 (energy/economics/environmental) model has been adopted and modified with a simplified, but comprehensive and multi-regional, nuclear energy module. Consistent nuclear energy scenarios are constructed using this multi-regional E 3 model, wherein future demands for nuclear power are projected in price competition with other energy sources under a wide range of long-term demographic (population, workforce size and productivity), economic (price-, population-, and income-determined demand for energy services, price- and population-modified GNP, resource depletion, world-market fossil energy prices), policy (taxes, tariffs, sanctions), and top-level technological (energy intensity and end-use efficiency improvements) drivers. Using the framework provided by the global E 3 model, the impacts of both external and internal drivers are investigated. The ability to connect external and internal drivers through this modeling framework allows the study of impacts and tradeoffs between fossil- versus nuclear-fuel burning, that includes interactions between cost, environmental, proliferation, resource, and policy issues

  2. Long-term global nuclear energy and fuel cycle strategies

    Krakowski, R.A. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States). Technology and Safety Assessment Div.

    1997-09-24

    The Global Nuclear Vision Project is examining, using scenario building techniques, a range of long-term nuclear energy futures. The exploration and assessment of optimal nuclear fuel-cycle and material strategies is an essential element of the study. To this end, an established global E{sup 3} (energy/economics/environmental) model has been adopted and modified with a simplified, but comprehensive and multi-regional, nuclear energy module. Consistent nuclear energy scenarios are constructed using this multi-regional E{sup 3} model, wherein future demands for nuclear power are projected in price competition with other energy sources under a wide range of long-term demographic (population, workforce size and productivity), economic (price-, population-, and income-determined demand for energy services, price- and population-modified GNP, resource depletion, world-market fossil energy prices), policy (taxes, tariffs, sanctions), and top-level technological (energy intensity and end-use efficiency improvements) drivers. Using the framework provided by the global E{sup 3} model, the impacts of both external and internal drivers are investigated. The ability to connect external and internal drivers through this modeling framework allows the study of impacts and tradeoffs between fossil- versus nuclear-fuel burning, that includes interactions between cost, environmental, proliferation, resource, and policy issues.

  3. The long-term global prospects for energy

    Ion, D.C.

    1985-01-01

    The subject is covered in sections, entitled: coal (accessible coal in significant coalfields in the 10 major producing countries, 1983; major coal production and exports, 1980 and estimates 1990 and 2000); crude oil (proved reserves and production, 1950 to present); resources for the future; possible future availability; economic growth, energy and oil demand; competition between coal and oil; stability of oil supplies; oil prices; natural gas (proved reserves; production); hydroelectricity; nuclear power; the renewable or inexhaustible energy sources; conclusions. (U.K.)

  4. Analysis on long-term perspectives of sustainable nuclear energy towards global warming protection

    Yamazawa, M.; Ichimura, E.; Shibata, Y.; Kobayashi, K.; Wajima, T.

    1998-01-01

    Study of long-term perspectives of the nuclear power generation was made from the point of views of both CO 2 emission constraints and sustainability of nuclear energy. To this end, STREAM (Semi-empirical TRiple E Analysis Model) program, as a social model, has been developed by Tokyo Electric Power Co. and Hitachi, Ltd. Using this program, long-term world demands of primary and nuclear energy were deduced, in view of the protection against the global warming due to the CO 2 gas accumulation. The inevitable conclusion has been drawn that nuclear energy plays an indispensable role in the reduction of green house effect. Evaluations were then made on conditions that the nuclear power system would be the long-term major sustainable energy source. (author)

  5. Global economics/energy/environmental (E3) modeling of long-term nuclear energy futures

    Krakowski, R.A.; Davidson, J.W.; Bathke, C.G.; Arthur, E.D.; Wagner, R.L. Jr.

    1997-01-01

    A global energy, economics, environment (E 3 ) model has been adopted and modified with a simplified, but comprehensive and multi-regional, nuclear energy module. Using this model, consistent nuclear energy scenarios are constructed. A spectrum of future is examined at two levels in a hierarchy of scenario attributes in which drivers are either external or internal to nuclear energy. Impacts of a range of nuclear fuel-cycle scenarios are reflected back to the higher-level scenario attributes. An emphasis is placed on nuclear materials inventories (in magnitude, location, and form) and their contribution to the long-term sustainability of nuclear energy and the future competitiveness of both conventional and advanced nuclear reactors

  6. Comparing long term energy scenarios

    Cumo, M.; Simbolotti, G.

    2001-01-01

    Major projection studies by international organizations and senior analysts have been compared with reference to individual key parameters (population, energy demand/supply, resources, technology, emissions and global warming) to understand trends and implications of the different scenarios. Then, looking at the long term (i.e., 2050 and beyond), parameters and trends have been compared together to understand and quantify whether and when possible crisis or market turbulence might occur due to shortage of resources or environmental problems [it

  7. Modelling the long-term deployment of electricity storage in the global energy system

    Despres, Jacques

    2015-01-01

    The current development of wind and solar power sources calls for an improvement of long-term energy models. Indeed, high shares of variable wind and solar productions have short- and long-term impacts on the power system, requiring the development of flexibility options: fast-reacting power plants, demand response, grid enhancement or electricity storage. Our first main contribution is the modelling of electricity storage and grid expansion in the POLES model (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems). We set up new investment mechanisms, where storage development is based on several combined economic values. After categorising the long-term energy models and the power sector modelling tools in a common typology, we showed the need for a better integration of both approaches. Therefore, the second major contribution of our work is the yearly coupling of POLES to a short-term optimisation of the power sector operation, with the European Unit Commitment and Dispatch model (EUCAD). The two-way data exchange allows the long-term coherent scenarios of POLES to be directly backed by the short-term technical detail of EUCAD. Our results forecast a strong and rather quick development of the cheapest flexibility options: grid interconnections, pumped hydro storage and demand response programs, including electric vehicle charging optimisation and vehicle-to-grid storage. The more expensive battery storage presumably finds enough system value in the second half of the century. A sensitivity analysis shows that improving the fixed costs of batteries impacts more the investments than improving their efficiency. We also show the explicit dependency between storage and variable renewable energy sources. (author) [fr

  8. Global economics/energy/environmental (E{sup 3}) modeling of long-term nuclear energy futures

    Krakowski, R.A.; Davidson, J.W.; Bathke, C.G.; Arthur, E.D.; Wagner, R.L. Jr.

    1997-09-01

    A global energy, economics, environment (E{sup 3}) model has been adopted and modified with a simplified, but comprehensive and multi-regional, nuclear energy module. Using this model, consistent nuclear energy scenarios are constructed. A spectrum of future is examined at two levels in a hierarchy of scenario attributes in which drivers are either external or internal to nuclear energy. Impacts of a range of nuclear fuel-cycle scenarios are reflected back to the higher-level scenario attributes. An emphasis is placed on nuclear materials inventories (in magnitude, location, and form) and their contribution to the long-term sustainability of nuclear energy and the future competitiveness of both conventional and advanced nuclear reactors.

  9. Nuclear Energy, Long Term Requirements

    Knapp, V.

    2006-01-01

    There are serious warnings about depletion of oil and gas and even more serious warnings about dangers of climate change caused by emission of carbon dioxide. Should developed countries be called to replace CO2 emitting energy sources as soon as possible, and the time available may not be longer then few decades, can nuclear energy answer the call and what are the requirements? Assuming optimistic contribution of renewable energy sources, can nuclear energy expand to several times present level in order to replace large part of fossil fuels use? Paper considers intermediate and long-term requirements. Future of nuclear power depends on satisfactory answers on several questions. First group of questions are those important for near and intermediate future. They deal with economics and safety of nuclear power stations in the first place. On the same time scale a generally accepted concept for radioactive waste disposal is also required. All these issues are in the focus of present research and development. Safer and more economical reactors are targets of international efforts in Generation IV and INPRO projects, but aiming further ahead these innovative projects are also addressing issues such as waste reduction and proliferation resistance. However, even assuming successful technical development of these projects, and there is no reason to doubt it, long term and large-scale nuclear power use is thereby not yet secured. If nuclear power is to play an essential role in the long-term future energy production and in reduction of CO2 emission, than several additional questions must be replied. These questions will deal with long-term nuclear fuel sufficiency, with necessary contribution of nuclear power in sectors of transport and industrial processes and with nuclear proliferation safety. This last issue is more political then technical, thus sometimes neglected by nuclear engineers, yet it will have essential role for the long-term prospects of nuclear power. The

  10. Analysis of long-term energy scenarios

    Lemming, J.; Morthorst, P.E.

    1998-09-01

    When addressing the role of fusion energy in the 21. century, the evaluation of possible future structures in the electricity market and the energy sector as a whole, can be a useful tool. Because fusion energy still needs demonstration, commercialized fusion energy is not likely to be a reality within the next few decades. Therefore long-term scenarios are needed describing the energy markets, which fusion energy eventually will be part of. This report performs an analysis of two of the most detailed existing long-term scenarios describing possible futures of the energy system. The aim is to clarify the frames in which the future development of the global energy demand, as well as the structure of the energy system can be expected to develop towards the year 2100. (au) 19 refs.

  11. Long term energy and emission implications of a global shift to electricity-based public rail transportation system

    Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Kim, Son H.

    2015-01-01

    With high reliance on light-duty vehicles in the present, the future of global transportation system is also geared towards private modes, which has significant energy and emission implications. Public transportation has been argued as an alternative strategy for meeting the rising transportation demands of the growing world, especially the poor, in a sustainable and energy efficient way. The present study analyzes an important yet under-researched question – what are the long-term energy and emission implications of an electric rail based passenger transportation system for meeting both long and short distance passenter transportation needs? We analyze a suite of electric rail share scenarios with and without climate policy. In the reference scenario, the transportation system will evolve towards dominance of fossil based light-duty vehicles. We find that an electric rail policy is more successful than an economy wide climate policy in reducing transport sector energy demand and emissions. Economy wide emissions however can only be reduced through a broader climate policy, the cost of which can be reduced by hundreds of billions of dollars across the century when implemented in combination with the transport sector focused electric rail policy. Moreover, higher share of electric rail enhances energy security for oil importing nations and reduces vehicular congestion and road infrastructure requirement as well. -- Highlights: •Economy wide carbon price policy will have little impact on transportation emissions. •Focused energy and emission mitigation policies required for transportation sector. •Large global shift towards electric rail based public transport is one possible option. •Transport sector focused policy will have marginal impact on total global emissions. •A combined transport sector and economy wide policy can reduce costs significantly

  12. Analysis on long-term perspective of nuclear energy in the global energy system in terms of CO2 mitigation

    Sugiyama, T.; Uotani, M.

    2001-01-01

    The value of nuclear energy is analyzed for prevention of global warming and climate change by means of a global energy model, which finds the cost minimum energy system over the time range of 2000 - 2100. Six scenarios are examined in this analysis, considering two scenarios of economic growth rate, two scenarios of electrification rate, and FBR introduction or not. The results indicate that progress of electricity generation is the key to reduce the global CO 2 emission, and the role of FBRs with its nuclear fuel cycle is very robust against any economic conditions. (author)

  13. Long-term scenarios for global energy demand and supply. Four global greenhouse mitigation scenarios. Final report

    Soerensen, B.; Meibom, P.; Kuemmel, B.

    1999-01-01

    The scenario method is used to investigate energy demand and supply systems for the 21st century. A geographical information system (GIS) is employed to assess the spatial match between supply and demand, and the robustness of the scenario against changes in assumptions is discussed, for scenarios using fossil fuels without carbon dioxide emissions, nuclear fuels with reduced accident and proliferation risks, and renewable energy from local and from more centralised installations: The year 2050 demand scenario is based on a very high goal satisfaction in all regions of the world, for the middle UN population projection. All energy efficiency measures that are technically ready and economic today are assumed in effect by year 2050. An increased fraction of total activities are assumed to occur in non-material sectors. Technical, economic and implementation issues are discussed, including the resilience to changes in particularly demand assumptions and the type of framework that would allow energy policy to employ any of (or a mix of) the scenario options. Results are presented as average energy flows per unit of land area. This geographically based presentation method gives additional insights, particularly for the dispersed renewable energy systems, but in all cases it allows to identify the need for energy transmission and trade between regions, and to display it in a visually suggestive fashion. The scenarios are examples of greenhouse mitigation scenarios, all characterised by near-zero emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. All are more expensive than the present system, but only if the cost of the negative impacts from the current system is neglected. As options for global energy policy during the next decades, the clean fossil and the renewable energy options (possibly in combination) are the only realistic ones, because the safe nuclear option requires research and development that most likely will take longer time, if it can at all be carried

  14. Long-term scenarios for global energy demand and supply. Four global greenhouse mitigation scenarios. Final report

    Soerensen, B; Meibom, P [Technical Univ. of Denmark, Lyngby (Denmark); Kuemmel, B [Royal Agricultural and Veterinary Univ., Tastrup (Denmark)

    1999-01-01

    The scenario method is used to investigate energy demand and supply systems for the 21st century. A geographical information system (GIS) is employed to assess the spatial match between supply and demand, and the robustness of the scenario against changes in assumptions is discussed, for scenarios using fossil fuels without carbon dioxide emissions, nuclear fuels with reduced accident and proliferation risks, and renewable energy from local and from more centralised installations: The year 2050 demand scenario is based on a very high goal satisfaction in all regions of the world, for the middle UN population projection. All energy efficiency measures that are technically ready and economic today are assumed in effect by year 2050. An increased fraction of total activities are assumed to occur in non-material sectors. Technical, economic and implementation issues are discussed, including the resilience to changes in particularly demand assumptions and the type of framework that would allow energy policy to employ any of (or a mix of) the scenario options. Results are presented as average energy flows per unit of land area. This geographically based presentation method gives additional insights, particularly for the dispersed renewable energy systems, but in all cases it allows to identify the need for energy transmission and trade between regions, and to display it in a visually suggestive fashion. The scenarios are examples of greenhouse mitigation scenarios, all characterised by near-zero emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. All are more expensive than the present system, but only if the cost of the negative impacts from the current system is neglected. As options for global energy policy during the next decades, the clean fossil and the renewable energy options (possibly in combination) are the only realistic ones, because the safe nuclear option requires research and development that most likely will take longer time, if it can at all be carried

  15. EnerFuture: Long Term Energy Scenarios 'Understanding our energy future'. Key graphs and analysis, Enerdata - Global Energy Forecasting

    2011-01-01

    Enerdata analyses 4 future energy scenarios accounting for 2 economic growth assumptions combined with 2 alternative carbon emission mitigation policies. In this study, a series of analyses supported by graphs assess the energy consumption and intensity forecasts in emerging and developed markets. In particular, one analysis is dedicated to energies competition, including gas, coal and renewable energies. (authors)

  16. long term energy long term energy performan performan power pla

    User

    roviding an energy performance analysis of Egbin thermal power plan tive Rankine .... effects [8]. The Egbin Electric power business unit is a steam thermal plant that makes use of steam to drive its ..... cogeneration plant- a case study.” Part A: ...

  17. Long term planning for wind energy development

    Trinick, M.

    1995-01-01

    In a planning system intended to be governed primarily by policies in statutory plans a reasonable horizon for long term planning is 10 years or longer. Because of statutory requirements, developers have no option but to pay due regard to, and take a full part in, long term planning. The paper examines the type of policies which have emerged in the last few years to cater for wind energy development. It canvasses the merits of different types of policies. Finally, it discusses the policy framework which may emerge to cater for development outside NFFO. (Author)

  18. Long-term implications of alternative light-duty vehicle technologies for global greenhouse gas emissions and primary energy demands

    Kyle, Page; Kim, Son H.

    2011-01-01

    This study assesses global light-duty vehicle (LDV) transport in the upcoming century, and the implications of vehicle technology advancement and fuel-switching on greenhouse gas emissions and primary energy demands. Five different vehicle technology scenarios are analyzed with and without a CO 2 emissions mitigation policy using the GCAM integrated assessment model: a reference internal combustion engine vehicle scenario, an advanced internal combustion engine vehicle scenario, and three alternative fuel vehicle scenarios in which all LDVs are switched to natural gas, electricity, or hydrogen by 2050. The emissions mitigation policy is a global CO 2 emissions price pathway that achieves 450 ppmv CO 2 at the end of the century with reference vehicle technologies. The scenarios demonstrate considerable emissions mitigation potential from LDV technology; with and without emissions pricing, global CO 2 concentrations in 2095 are reduced about 10 ppmv by advanced ICEV technologies and natural gas vehicles, and 25 ppmv by electric or hydrogen vehicles. All technological advances in vehicles are important for reducing the oil demands of LDV transport and their corresponding CO 2 emissions. Among advanced and alternative vehicle technologies, electricity- and hydrogen-powered vehicles are especially valuable for reducing whole-system emissions and total primary energy. - Highlights: → Alternative-fuel LDVs reduce whole-system CO 2 emissions, even without carbon pricing. → Alternative-fuel LDVs enhance the CO 2 mitigation capacity of the transportation sector. → Electric and hydrogen vehicles reduce whole-system primary energy supporting LDV transport.

  19. Long term agreements energy efficiency. Progress 1999

    NONE

    2000-11-01

    Long Term Agreements (LTAs) on energy efficiency have been contracted with various business sectors since 1992, as part of energy conservation policy: industrial sectors, commercial services, agrarian sectors and non-profit services. LTAs are voluntary agreements between a specific sector and the Minister of Economic Affairs. In some cases, the Minister of Agriculture, Nature Management and Fisheries is also involved. The sector commits to an effort to improve energy efficiency by a particular percentage within an agreed period. As at 31 December 1999, a total of 29 LTAs had been contracted with industrial sectors and 14 with non-industrial ones. This report describes the progress of the LTAs in 1999. It reviews the energy efficiency improvements realised through the LTAs, both overall and in each individual sector. The aim is to make the efforts and results in the various sectors accessible to the general public. Appendix 1 describes the positioning of the LTA instrument. This Appendix provides and insight into the position of the LTAs within the overall set of policy instruments. It also covers the subsidy schemes and fiscal instruments that support the LTAs, the relationships between LTAs and environmental policy and new developments relating to the LTAs in the years ahead. Appendices 2 to 6 contain the reports on the LTAs and a list of abbreviations (Appendix 7)

  20. Long-term alternative energy R and D strategies

    1981-01-01

    Within the coming decades a transition must be initiated from oil and gas to 'unlimited' primary energy sources, i.e., nuclear and solar energy. Ever more expensive fossil energy forms will have to provide for an intermediary solution to the growing global energy demand. While a rather clear-cut picture of the energy problem has emerged on the global level, a straightforward translation to the national or even to the company level is not available. The current study contract between the European Economic Community and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) is a first exercice designed to transfer the global results to the intermediary level of the ''Subregion'' of the European Community. In operational terms the contract aims at identifying long-term (up to 2030) alternative energy R and D strategies for twelve European countries that would be consistent with the global scenarios, identified by IIASA

  1. Multisource Estimation of Long-term Global Terrestrial Surface Radiation

    Peng, L.; Sheffield, J.

    2017-12-01

    Land surface net radiation is the essential energy source at the earth's surface. It determines the surface energy budget and its partitioning, drives the hydrological cycle by providing available energy, and offers heat, light, and energy for biological processes. Individual components in net radiation have changed historically due to natural and anthropogenic climate change and land use change. Decadal variations in radiation such as global dimming or brightening have important implications for hydrological and carbon cycles. In order to assess the trends and variability of net radiation and evapotranspiration, there is a need for accurate estimates of long-term terrestrial surface radiation. While large progress in measuring top of atmosphere energy budget has been made, huge discrepancies exist among ground observations, satellite retrievals, and reanalysis fields of surface radiation, due to the lack of observational networks, the difficulty in measuring from space, and the uncertainty in algorithm parameters. To overcome the weakness of single source datasets, we propose a multi-source merging approach to fully utilize and combine multiple datasets of radiation components separately, as they are complementary in space and time. First, we conduct diagnostic analysis of multiple satellite and reanalysis datasets based on in-situ measurements such as Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA), existing validation studies, and other information such as network density and consistency with other meteorological variables. Then, we calculate the optimal weighted average of multiple datasets by minimizing the variance of error between in-situ measurements and other observations. Finally, we quantify the uncertainties in the estimates of surface net radiation and employ physical constraints based on the surface energy balance to reduce these uncertainties. The final dataset is evaluated in terms of the long-term variability and its attribution to changes in individual

  2. Energy in 2010 - 2020. Long term challenges; Energie 2010-2020. Les defis du long terme

    Dessus, Benjamin [ed.] [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), 75 - Paris (France)

    2000-02-02

    This report presents the results of a workshop intending to anticipate the long term challenges, to guide better the short term power options, to understand the available political, economical and technical assumptions for the prospective world situation, to give some strategic hints on the necessary transition. Indeed, the difficult issue which the workshop tried to tackle was how should we prepare to reveal the energetic challenge of the development of the eight to ten billion inhabitants of our Planet in the next century without jeopardizing its existence. The energetic problems, a hardcore of the international preoccupation of both growth and environment, as it was recently evidenced by the climatic conference in Kyoto, have ever been the object of a particular attention on the part of General Commissariat of Plan. Thus, the commission 'Energy in 2010 - 2020' has been instituted in April 1996 in order to update the works done in 1990 - 1991 by the commission 'Energy 2010'. Soon it occurred to this new commission the task of illuminating its works by a long term (2050 - 2100) world prospective analysis of the challenges and problems linked to energy, growth and environment. In conclusion, this document tried to find answers to questions like: - which are the risks the energy consumption augmentation entail? - can we control them by appropriate urbanism and transport policies or technological innovation?. Four options for immediate action are suggested: - the energy efficiency should become a priority objective of policies; -coping with the long term challenges requires acting at present; - building the transition between governmental leadership and market; - taking profit of all the possible synergies between short and long term planning.

  3. Global long-term cost dynamics of offshore wind electricity generation

    Gernaat, David E H J; Van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Van Vliet, Jasper; Sullivan, Patrick; Arent, Douglas J.

    2014-01-01

    Using the IMAGE/TIMER (The Targets IMage Energy Regional) long-term integrated assessment model, this paper explores the regional and global potential of offshore wind to contribute to global electricity production. We develop long-term cost supply curve for offshore wind, a representation of the

  4. Long-term strategies in world energy supply

    Haefele, W.

    1980-01-01

    The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis of Laxenburg, Austria has carried out a comprehensive systems analysis in which the problems of the long-term world energy supply are treated first qualitatively and then quantiatively. The results of this five-year study have been published in a book entitled 'Energy in a Finite World: a Global Energy Systems Analysis.' This summary of the book indicates that the world's energy supply in the next fifty years will not be limited by resources, but the rates at which new technologies will be built up. (orig.) [de

  5. Who owns the long term? Perspectives from global business leaders.

    Lévy, Maurice; Eskew, Mike; Bernotat, Wulf H; Barner, Marianne

    2007-01-01

    Day-to-day management is challenging enough for CEOs. How do they manage for the long term as well? We posed that question to four top executives of global companies. According to Maurice Levy, chairman and CEO of Publicis Groupe, building the future is really about building the present and keeping close to the front line--those who deal with your customers and markets. He also attributes his company's success in large part to knowing when to take action: In a market where clients' needs steer your long-term future, timing is everything. UPS Chairman and CEO Mike Eskew emphasizes staying true to your vision and values over the long run, despite meeting obstacles along the way. It took more than 20 years, and many lessons learned, to produce consistent profits in what is today the company's fastest-growing and most profitable business: international small packages. Wulf H. Bernotat, CEO of E.ON, examines the challenges facing business leaders and politicians as they try to balance energy needs against potential environmental damage. He calls for educating people about consumption and waste, and he maintains that a diverse and reliable mix of energy sources is the only way to ensure a secure supply while protecting our environment. Finally, Marianne Barner, the director of corporate communications and ombudsman for children's issues at IKEA, discusses how the company is taking steps to improve the environment and be otherwise socially responsible. For example, it's partnering with NGOs to address child labor issues and, on its own, is working to help mitigate climate change. IKEA's goals include using renewable sources for 100% of its energy needs and cutting its overall energy consumption by 25%.

  6. Global prospects for nuclear power development in the long term

    Semenov, Boris A.

    1994-01-01

    supply, in the world and by region. In the long term, up to 2100, the broad range of uncertainties with regard to population, economic growth and technology evolution prevent from any sound forecast in the field of energy and in particular of nuclear power. The scenario presented in the paper has been prepared for the Inter Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in order to illustrate the potential role of nuclear power in alleviating greenhouse gas emissions. The global energy demand projections established by IPCC, which serve as a basis for the nuclear power scenario, assume high economic growth, drastic energy efficiency improvement and the implementation of voluntary policies for greenhouse gas reduction. Under these assumptions, it is estimated that the total primary energy consumption in the world will reach some 660 EJ per annum in 2100 as compared to 330 EJ per annum in 1985. Since the world population is expected to more than double during this time frame, it means that the average energy consumption per capita will a sustained deployment of nuclear power worldwide as a means to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector. Although this scenario would require strong commitment to the development of nuclear energy, technical and industrial capabilities would enable its implementation. In view of the potential role of nuclear power in sustainable energy supply strategies, there is a need for continued research and development aiming towards the design and implementation of advanced reactors with enhanced safety, technical and economic performance. Natural nuclear fuel resources could support a broad deployment of nuclear energy production as a major part of the mix of options for sustainable supply in the long term. The challenge for the nuclear industry is to restore the confidence in nuclear energy and enhance its social acceptability through the design and implementation of sound technical solutions for nuclear power plants, fuel cycle

  7. Long-term equilibrium effects of constraints in energy supply

    Brookes, L.G.

    1984-01-01

    The subject is covered in sections, entitled: introduction; the economic role of energy; the economics of energy price; a first attempt to model long term effects (energy consumption and economic activity); what is a price hike (energy supply and demand functions before and after price hike); modelling energy price hikes; implications and lessons for nuclear energy; the present reality. (U.K.)

  8. Global Transcriptomic Profiling of Cardiac Hypertrophy and Fatty Heart Induced by Long-Term High-Energy Diet in Bama Miniature Pigs.

    Jihan Xia

    Full Text Available A long-term high-energy diet affects human health and leads to obesity and metabolic syndrome in addition to cardiac steatosis and hypertrophy. Ectopic fat accumulation in the heart has been demonstrated to be a risk factor for heart disorders, but the molecular mechanism of heart disease remains largely unknown. Bama miniature pigs were fed a high-fat, high-sucrose diet (HFHSD for 23 months. These pigs developed symptoms of metabolic syndrome and showed cardiac steatosis and hypertrophy with a greatly increased body weight (2.73-fold, P<0.01, insulin level (4.60-fold, P<0.01, heart weight (1.82-fold, P<0.05 and heart volume (1.60-fold, P<0.05 compared with the control pigs. To understand the molecular mechanisms of cardiac steatosis and hypertrophy, nine pig heart cRNA samples were hybridized to porcine GeneChips. Microarray analyses revealed that 1,022 genes were significantly differentially expressed (P<0.05, ≥1.5-fold change, including 591 up-regulated and 431 down-regulated genes in the HFHSD group relative to the control group. KEGG analysis indicated that the observed heart disorder involved the signal transduction-related MAPK, cytokine, and PPAR signaling pathways, energy metabolism-related fatty acid and oxidative phosphorylation signaling pathways, heart function signaling-related focal adhesion, axon guidance, hypertrophic cardiomyopathy and actin cytoskeleton signaling pathways, inflammation and apoptosis pathways, and others. Quantitative RT-PCR assays identified several important differentially expressed heart-related genes, including STAT3, ACSL4, ATF4, FADD, PPP3CA, CD74, SLA-8, VCL, ACTN2 and FGFR1, which may be targets of further research. This study shows that a long-term, high-energy diet induces obesity, cardiac steatosis, and hypertrophy and provides insights into the molecular mechanisms of hypertrophy and fatty heart to facilitate further research.

  9. Long-term scenarios and strategies for the deployment of renewable energies in Germany in view of European and global developments. Summary of the final report

    Nitsch, Joachim; Pregger, Thomas; Scholz, Yvonne [Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt, Stuttgart (Germany). Abt. Systemanalyse und Technikbewertung] [and others

    2012-03-31

    The German Federal government's ''Energy Concept'' [Energiekonzept 2010] of 28 September 2010 and the subsequent energy laws of summer 2011 presented a long-term political timetable for climate protection and the transformation of the energy supply in Germany [the ''Energiewende'']. It calls for emissions of greenhouse gases in Germany to be reduced by 80% to 95% from the 1990 level by the year 2050. For energy-related CO{sub 2} emissions alone, this target requires a reduction of at least 85%, aiming in the final result at a power supply that is almost emission-free. A transformation of the power supply to renewable sources of energy, accompanied by a substantial increase in energy efficiency, is the appropriate strategy for this. The challenges presented by this transformation of the power system are considerable, and their full extent has not yet been grasped. This study presents results of systems-analysis examinations of the transformation of electricity, heat, and fuel generation that were developed as part of a three-year research project for the Federal Ministry of the Environment (final report [Nitsch et al. 2012]). The work is based on projects carried out in previous years by the DLR with varying project partners for the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, and Nuclear Safety (BMU) and the Federal Environment Agency (UBA). In essence, self-consistent energy scenarios for long-term expansion of renewables and for the remaining supply of energy, and the structural and economic effects to be derived from these, were developed. In addition, the project partners, the DLR in Stuttgart and the Fraunhofer Institut fur Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (IWES) in Kassel, performed simulations of the future electricity supply as it develops over time, some of them with spatial resolution. This enabled the scenarios for electricity generation to be validated with respect to load coverage, and also

  10. Global Uranium Supply Ensured for Long Term, New Report Shows

    2012-01-01

    Full text: Uranium resources and production are on the rise with the security of uranium supply ensured for the long term, according to a new report by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Uranium 2011: Resources, Production and Demand, commonly referred to as the ''Red Book'', shows that total identified uranium resources have grown 12.5% since 2008. However, the costs of production have also increased, leading to reductions in lower cost category resources. These figures, which reflect the situation as of 1 January 2011, mean that total identified resources are sufficient for over 100 years of supply based on current requirements. Global uranium mine production increased by over 25% between 2008 and 2010 because of significantly increased production in Kazakhstan, currently the world's leading producer. The increased resource base has been achieved thanks to a 22% increase in uranium exploration and mine development expenditures between 2008 and 2010, which in 2010 totalled over $2 billion. Demand for uranium is expected to continue to rise for the foreseeable future. Although the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident has affected nuclear power projects and policies in some countries, nuclear power remains a key part of the global energy mix. Several governments have plans for new nuclear power plant construction, with the strongest expansion expected in China, India, the Republic of Korea and the Russian Federation. The speed and magnitude of growth in generating capacity elsewhere is still to be determined. By the year 2035, according to the joint NEA-IAEA Secretariat, world nuclear electricity generating capacity is projected to grow from 375 GWe net (at the end of 2010) to between 540 GWe net in the low demand case and 746 GWe net in the high demand case, increases of 44% and 99% respectively. Accordingly, world annual reactor-related uranium requirements are projected to rise from 63 875 tonnes of uranium metal

  11. Comparing long term energy scenarios; Scenari energetici di lungo termine

    Cumo, M.; Simbolotti, G. [Rome Univ. La Sapienza, Rome (Italy)

    2001-02-01

    Major projection studies by international organizations and senior analysts have been compared with reference to individual key parameters (population, energy demand/supply, resources, technology, emissions and global warming) to understand trends and implications of the different scenarios. Then, looking at the long term (i.e., 2050 and beyond), parameters and trends have been compared together to understand and quantify whether and when possible crisis or market turbulence might occur due to shortage of resources or environmental problems. [Italian] Viene presentato un confronto degli scenari energetici di lungo termine formulati dalle agenzie internazionali e dai maggiori analisti del settore con particolare riferimento alla evoluzione di specifici parametri quali sviluppo demografico, domanda e offerta di energia, risorse energetiche, sviluppo tecnologico, emissioni e relativi cambiamenti climatici. L'evoluzione e l'interdipendenza dei singoli aspetti vengono analizzate al fine di individuare la possibile evenienza di crisi o turbolenze dei mercati energetici indotte da carenza di risorse o da problemi ambientali.

  12. Hydrogen in a global long-term perspective

    Quakernaat, J.

    1994-01-01

    For many countries, the hydrogen economy offers an operational objective for their long-term energy structure. At the end of the next century, the world will depend on the predominate use of carbon-free and carbon-neutral sources of energy, such as flow energy, energy from modern biomass, and safe nuclear energy. The direct and indirect costs involved in the use of traditional energy supplies will increase sharply in the process of time, so that the economic feasibility of a less intensive use of energy and the introduction of alternative energy supply systems will no longer be insurmountable problems. The supply and demand structures of energy will be optimally blended by the use of hydrogen and electricity, an almost ideal combination of secondary energy carriers. With these carriers, practically every centralized or decentralized, environmentally sound energy supply can be permanently maintained, both within and outside of industrialized, metropolitan areas. The economic development of developing countries will depend on the predominate use of relatively 'cheap' fossil energy carriers (coal, petroleum and natural gas), as well as on the accompanying energy supplies structures. Yet those countries as well, similar to the wealthy industrial countries, will have to start using the highly capital intensive and very energy efficient energy supply systems and energy consumption technologies. This requires innovative strategies that are aimed at compensating developing countries (temporarily) for their lack of purchasing power and knowledge infrastructure. The costs involved in the hydrogen chain are still too high, and the world energy prices are still too low for such a transfer to take place. The attention, however, will focus on drastic energy saving, decarbonization of fossil fuels, substitution to natural gas, the opening up of flow energy, biomass production, and the development of inherent, safe nuclear energy. 49 refs

  13. Long term plan of atomic energy development and utilization

    1982-01-01

    The atomic energy utilization and development in Japan have progressed remarkably, and already nuclear power generation has borne an important part in electric power supply, while radiation has been utilized in the fields of industry, agriculture, medicine and so on. Now, atomic energy is indispensable for national life and industrial activity. The former long term plan was decided in September, 1978, and the new long term plan should be established since the situation has changed largely. The energy substituting for petroleum has been demanded, and the expectation to nuclear power generation has heightened because it enables stable and economical power supply. The independently developed technology related to atomic energy must be put in practical use. The peaceful utilization of atomic energy must be promoted, while contributing to the nuclear non-proliferation policy. The Atomic Energy Commission of Japan decided the new long term plan to clearly show the outline of the important measures related to atomic energy development and utilization in 10 years hereafter, and the method of its promotion. The basic concept of atomic energy development and utilization, the long term prospect and the concept on the promotion, the method of promoting the development and utilization, and the problems of funds, engineers and location are described. (kako, I.)

  14. Samish Indian Nation Long-Term Strategic Energy Plan

    Christine Woodward; B. Beckley; K. Hagen

    2005-06-30

    The Tribes strategic energy planning effort is divided into three phases: (1) Completing an Energy Resource Assessment; (2) Developing a Long-Term Strategic Energy Plan; and (3) Preparing a Strategic Energy Implementation Plan for the Samish Homelands. The Samish Indian Nation developed a comprehensive Strategic Energy plan to set policy for future development on tribal land that consists of a long-term, integrated, systems approach to providing a framework under which the Samish Community can use resources efficiently, create energy-efficient infrastructures, and protect and enhance quality of life. Development of the Strategic Energy plan will help the Samish Nation create a healthy community that will sustain current and future generations by addressing economic, environmental, and social issues while respecting the Samish Indian Nation culture and traditions.

  15. Long-term availability of global uranium resources

    Monnet, Antoine

    2016-01-01

    From a global perspective, a low-carbon path to development driven by a growth of nuclear power production raises issues about the availability of uranium resources. Future technologies allowing nuclear reactors to overcome the need for natural uranium will take time to fully deploy. To address these issues, we analyze the conditions of availability of uranium in the 21. century. The first two conditions are technical accessibility and economic interest, both related to the cost of production. We study them using a model that estimates the ultimate uranium resources (amounts of both discovered and undiscovered resources) and their costs. This model splits the world into regions and the resource estimate for each region derives from the present knowledge of the deposits and economic filtering. The output is a long-term supply curve that illustrates the quantities of uranium that are technically accessible as a function of their cost of production. We identify the main uncertainties of these estimates and we show that with no regional breakdown, the ultimate resources are underestimated. The other conditions of availability of uranium covered in our study are related to the market dynamics, i.e. they derive from the supply and demand clearing mechanism. To assess their influence, they are introduced as dynamic constraints in a partial equilibrium model. This model of the uranium market is deterministic, and market players are represented by regions. For instance, it takes into account the short-term correlation between price and exploration expenditures, which is the subject of a dedicate econometric study. In the longer term, constraints include anticipation of demand by consumers and a gradual depletion of the cheapest ultimate resources. Through a series of prospective simulations, we demonstrate the strong influence on long-term price trends of both the growth rate of demand during the 21. century and its anticipation. Conversely, the uncertainties related to the

  16. Designing indicators of long-term energy supply security

    Jansen, J.C.; Van Arkel, W.G.; Boots, M.G.

    2004-01-01

    To our knowledge, so far amazingly little research work has been undertaken to construct meaningful indicators of long-run energy supply security for a particular nation or region. Currently, in addressing energy supply security, policy makers tend to emphasise short-term supply disruptions. In contrast, this pre-study accords with the broader Sustainability Outlook in considering the long-term perspective. This report starts with taking stock, in a concise way, of the official EU energy outlook and issues related to the opportunities to administer changes in the energy mix at the level of major energy use categories. Then a brief survey of relevant literature is made on long-term strategies to ensure survival of systems - be it biological, social, etc. - in an environment largely characterised by high uncertainty and a lot of unchartered territory. We found the work of Andrew Stirling very inspiring in this context. Based on his work and considering the limitations of the present research activity, we retained the Shannon index as the best 'simple' indicator of diversity. In the core of the report, the Shannon index is elaborated into four indicators of long-term energy supply security. Stepwise, additional aspects of long-term energy supply security are introduced. These aspects are: Diversification of energy sources in energy supply; Diversification of imports with respect to imported energy sources; Long-term political stability in regions of origin; The resource base in regions of origin, including the home region/country itself. After small adjustments to allow for data availability, these indicators were applied to the reference year 2030 of four long-term scenarios with data of base year 1995 and projections for underlying variables provided by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP). Preliminary interpretation of the results suggests the usefulness of the indicators presented in this report. A second activity undertaken in this report was

  17. Nuclear power from a long term global perspective

    Davis, D.A.

    1994-01-01

    The global problem with energy, now and into the longer term, is the same as the global problem with food. There is no absolute shortage of either and nor is there likely to be. But the pattern of availability is such that large numbers of people have inadequate supplies of one or the other, or of both. Thus, in considering global energy futures the problems are more about energy distribution than about its absolute availability: it is important that in arguing its case for expansion the nuclear industry bears that fact in mind. (Author)

  18. Long-Term Problems of Nuclear Energy, December 1976

    Broda, E.

    1976-01-01

    The Text was written by Enelbert Broda in Oktober 1976. In this report, the physicist and chemist Engelbert Broda discusses various areas of peaceful uses of nuclear energy and concludes that the negative aspects outweigh the positive and that the use of nuclear energy has to be rejected in the long term. In 16 chapters the biggest and most dangerous problems are discussed. Include the unresolved question of disposal, problems of reprocessing and transport of fissile materials, the proliferation of nuclear weapons technology, risks of terrorism, dismantling and decontamination of old nuclear power plants, the toxicity of fissile material, as well as the general unprofitable use of nuclear power plants. As a long-term alternative the author suggests an intensification of the exploitation of solar energy, as well as a deliberate restriction of the rising demand for energy.(roessner)

  19. Long-Term Problems of Nuclear Energy, October 1976

    Broda, E.

    1976-01-01

    The Text was written by Enelbert Broda in Oktober 1976. In this report, the physicist and chemist Engelbert Broda discusses various areas of peaceful uses of nuclear energy and concludes that the negative aspects outweigh the positive and that the use of nuclear energy has to be rejected in the long term. In 16 chapters the biggest and most dangerous problems are discussed. Include the unresolved question of disposal, problems of reprocessing and transport of fissile materials, the proliferation of nuclear weapons technology, risks of terrorism, dismantling and decontamination of old nuclear power plants, the toxicity of fissile material, as well as the general unprofitable use of nuclear power plants. As a long-term alternative the author suggests an intensification of the exploitation of solar energy, as well as a deliberate restriction of the rising demand for energy.(roessner) [de

  20. Long-term energy futures: the critical role of technology

    Grubler, A.

    1999-01-01

    The paper briefly reviews the results of a 5-year study conducted by IIASA jointly with the World Energy Council (WEC) on long term-energy perspectives. After summarizing the study's main findings, the paper addresses the crucial role of technological change in the evolution of long-term energy futures and in responding to key long-term uncertainties in the domains of energy demand growth, economics, as well as environmental protection. Based on most recent empirical and methodological findings, long-term dynamics of technological change portray a number of distinct features that need to be taken account of in technology and energy policy. First, success of innovation efforts and ultimate outcomes of technological are uncertain. Second, new, improved technologies are not a free good, but require continued dedicated efforts. Third, technological knowledge (as resulting from R and D and accumulation of experience, i.e. technological learning) exhibits characteristics of (uncertain) increasing returns. Forth, due to innovation - diffusion lags, technological interdependence, and infrastructure needs (network externalities), rates of change in large-scale energy systems are necessarily slow. This implies acting sooner rather than later as a contigency policy to respond to long-term social, economic and environmental uncertainties, most notably possible climate change. Rather than picking technological 'winners' the results of the IIASA-WEC scenario studies are seen most appropriate to guide technology and R and D portfolio analysis. Nonetheless, robust persistent patterns of technological change invariably occur across all scenarios. Examples of primising groups of technologies are given. The crucial importance of meeting long-energy demand in developing countries, assuring large-scale infrastructure investments, maintaining a strong and diversified R AND D protfolio, as well as to dvise new institutional mechnisms for technology development and diffusion for instance

  1. A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)

    Ross, M. [Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States)]|[Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Physics]|[Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.; Hwang, R. [Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States)

    1992-02-01

    The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model`s parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.

  2. A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)

    Ross, M. (Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States) Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Physics Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.); Hwang, R. (Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States))

    1992-02-01

    The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model's parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.

  3. Fusion energy in context: its fitness for the long term

    Holdren, J.P.

    1978-01-01

    Long-term limits to growth in energy will be imposed not by inability to expand supply, but by the rising environmental and social costs of doing so. These costs will therefore be cental issues in choosing long-term options. Fusion, like solar energy, is not one possibility but many, some with very attractive environmental characteristics and others perhaps little better in these regards than fission. None of the fusion options will be cheap, and none is likely to be widely available before the year 2010. The most attractive forms of fusion may require greater investments of time and money to achieve, but they are the real reason for wanting fusion at all

  4. The Electrification of Energy: Long-Term Trends and Opportunities

    Tsao, Jeffrey Y. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Fouquet, Roger [London School of Economics and Political Science (United Kingdom); Schubert, E. Fred [Rensselaer Polytechnic Inst., Troy, NY (United States)

    2017-11-01

    Here, we present and analyze three powerful long-term historical trends in energy, particularly electrical energy, as well as the opportunities and challenges associated with these trends. The first trend is from a world containing a diversity of energy currencies to one whose predominant currency is electricity, driven by electricity’s transportability, exchangeability, and steadily decreasing cost. The second trend is from electricity generated from a diversity of sources to electricity generated predominantly by free-fuel sources, driven by their steadily decreasing cost and long-term abundance. These trends necessitate a just-emerging third trend: from a grid in which electricity is transported uni-directionally, traded at near-static prices, and consumed under direct human control; to a grid in which electricity is transported bi-directionally, traded at dynamic prices, and consumed under human-tailored agential control. Early acceptance and appreciation of these trends will accelerate their remaking of humanity’s energy landscape into one in which energy is much more affordable, abundant and efficiently deployed than it is today; with major economic, geo-political, and environmental benefits to human society.

  5. Long-term energy planning with uncertain environmental performance metrics

    Parkinson, Simon C.; Djilali, Ned

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Environmental performance uncertainty considered in a long-term energy planning model. • Application to electricity generation planning in British Columbia. • Interactions with climate change mitigation and adaptation strategy are assessed. • Performance risk-hedging impacts the technology investment strategy. • Sensitivity of results to model formulation is discussed. - Abstract: Environmental performance (EP) uncertainties span a number of energy technology options, and pose planning risk when the energy system is subject to environmental constraints. This paper presents two approaches to integrating EP uncertainty into the long-term energy planning framework. The methodologies consider stochastic EP metrics across multiple energy technology options, and produce a development strategy that hedges against the risk of exceeding environmental targets. Both methods are compared within a case study of emission-constrained electricity generation planning in British Columbia, Canada. The analysis provides important insight into model formulation and the interactions with concurrent environmental policy uncertainties. EP risk is found to be particularly important in situations where environmental constraints become increasingly stringent. Model results indicate allocation of a modest risk premium in these situations can provide valuable hedging against EP risk

  6. Global synthesis of long-term cloud condensation nuclei observations

    Schmale, Julia; Henning, Silvia; Stratmann, Frank; Henzing, Bas; Schlag, Patrick; Aalto, Pasi; Keskinen, Helmi; Sellegri, Karine; Ovadnevaite, Jurgita; Krüger, Mira; Jefferson, Anne; Whitehead, James; Carslaw, Ken; Yum, Seong Soo; Kristensson, Adam; Baltensperger, Urs; Gysel, Martin

    2016-04-01

    Cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) are aerosol particles with the ability to activate into droplets at a given super saturation and therefore influence the microphysical and optical properties of clouds. To predict cloud radiative properties understanding the spatial and temporal variability of CCN concentrations in different environments is important. However, currently, the effects of atmospheric particles on changes in cloud radiative forcing are still the largest contribution of uncertainty in climate forcing prediction (IPCC, 2013). Numerous intensive field campaigns have already explored detailed characteristics of CCN in many locations around the world. However, these rather short-term observations can generally not address seasonal or inter-annual variations and a comparison between campaign sites is difficult due to the higher influence of specific environmental circumstances on short-term measurements results. Here, we present results of more long-term CCN and aerosol number concentrations as well as size distribution data covering at least one full year between 2006 and 2014. The 12 locations include ACTRIS stations (http://www.actris.net/) in Europe, and further sites in North America, Brazil and Korea. The sites are located in different environments allowing for temporal and spatial characterization of CCN variability in different atmospheric regimes. Those include marine, remote-continental, boreal forest, rain forest, Arctic and monsoon-influenced environments, as well as boundary layer and free tropospheric conditions. The aerosol populations and their activation behavior show significant differences across the stations. While peak concentrations of CCN are observed in summer at the high altitude sites, in the Arctic the highest concentrations occur during the Haze period in spring. The rural-marine and rural-continental sites exhibit similar CCN concentration characteristics with a relatively flat annual cycle. At some stations, e.g. in the boreal

  7. US long-term energy intensity: Backcast and projection

    Dowlatabadi, Hadi; Oravetz, Matthew A.

    2006-01-01

    Energy intensity of the economy is often modeled as being determined by the combined effect of a fixed price elasticity of demand, and an exogenously specified, fixed technical change parameter denoted as the autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI). Typically, the AEEI rate is set to 0.5-1.5% improvement per annum. Here, we study historic aggregate energy intensity trends for the US from 1954 to 1994. We show that the historic trends are inconsistent with an autonomous model of improved energy efficiency-especially when the model is used to inform policies that impact energy prices. As an alternative we propose a model of price-induced efficiency, π, in which aggregate energy intensity trends respond to changes in energy prices beyond price elasticity of demand ε. Our exercise reveals that the aggregate price elasticity of energy demand of the US economy has declined by roughly 15% over the past four decades. But beyond this decline, bringing our simulations and historical data into close correspondence requires π to change sign before and after 1974. Before 1974, after accounting for price elasticity of demand, the economy was growing less energy efficient. After 1974, after accounting for the price elasticity of demand, the economy was growing more energy efficient. Furthermore, since 1984, the rate of energy efficiency gain has been declining. When projections of long-term energy use are compared, those with a price-induced energy efficiency formulation generate significantly more price sensitive energy use and emissions trajectories. When in the business as usual scenario energy prices are expected to be rising, climate policies involve lower shadow carbon prices with π than with AEEI formulations. In scenarios where energy prices are relatively flat, energy intensity rises leading to CO 2 emissions far higher than standard business as usual projections utilizing AEEI assumptions

  8. US long-term energy intensity: backcast and projection

    Dowlatabadi, H.; Oravetz, M.A.

    2006-01-01

    Energy intensity of the economy is often modeled as being determined by the combined effect of a fixed price elasticity of demand, and an exogenously specified, fixed technical change parameter denoted as the autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI). Typically, the AEEI rate is set to 0.5-1.5% improvement per annum. Here, we study historic aggregate energy intensity trends for the US from 1954 to 1994. We show that the historic trends are inconsistent with an autonomous model of improved energy efficiency - especially when the model is used to inform policies that impact energy prices. As an alternative we propose a model of price-induced efficiency, π, in which aggregate energy intensity trends respond to changes in energy prices beyond price elasticity of demandε. Our exercise reveals that the aggregate price elasticity of energy demand of the US economy has declined by roughly 15% over the past four decades. But beyond this decline, bringing our simulations and historical data into close correspondence requires π to change sign before and after 1974. Before 1974, after accounting for price elasticity of demand, the economy was growing less energy efficient. After 1974, after accounting for the price elasticity of demand, the economy was growing more energy efficient. Furthermore, since 1984, the rate of energy efficiency gain has been declining. When projections of long-term energy use are compared, those with a price-induced energy efficiency formulation generate significantly more price sensitive energy use and emissions trajectories. When in the business as usual scenario energy prices are expected to be rising, climate policies involve lower shadow carbon prices with π than with AEEI formulations. In scenarios where energy prices are relatively flat, energy intensity rises leading to CO 2 emissions far higher than standard business as usual projections utilizing AEEI assumptions. (Author)

  9. US long-term energy intensity: backcast and projection

    Dowlatabadi, H. [University of British Columbia, Vancouver (Canada); Oravetz, M.A. [International Energy Agency, Paris (France)

    2006-11-15

    Energy intensity of the economy is often modeled as being determined by the combined effect of a fixed price elasticity of demand, and an exogenously specified, fixed technical change parameter denoted as the autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI). Typically, the AEEI rate is set to 0.5-1.5% improvement per annum. Here, we study historic aggregate energy intensity trends for the US from 1954 to 1994. We show that the historic trends are inconsistent with an autonomous model of improved energy efficiency - especially when the model is used to inform policies that impact energy prices. As an alternative we propose a model of price-induced efficiency, {pi}, in which aggregate energy intensity trends respond to changes in energy prices beyond price elasticity of demand{epsilon}. Our exercise reveals that the aggregate price elasticity of energy demand of the US economy has declined by roughly 15% over the past four decades. But beyond this decline, bringing our simulations and historical data into close correspondence requires {pi} to change sign before and after 1974. Before 1974, after accounting for price elasticity of demand, the economy was growing less energy efficient. After 1974, after accounting for the price elasticity of demand, the economy was growing more energy efficient. Furthermore, since 1984, the rate of energy efficiency gain has been declining. When projections of long-term energy use are compared, those with a price-induced energy efficiency formulation generate significantly more price sensitive energy use and emissions trajectories. When in the business as usual scenario energy prices are expected to be rising, climate policies involve lower shadow carbon prices with {pi} than with AEEI formulations. In scenarios where energy prices are relatively flat, energy intensity rises leading to CO{sub 2} emissions far higher than standard business as usual projections utilizing AEEI assumptions. (Author)

  10. Shifting Global Climate Governance: Creating Long-Term Goals Through UNFCCC Article 2

    P. Brian Fisher

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available I argue that the long-term risk of global climate change has been mischaracterized as an environmental issue, and therefore, solutions based solely on national emission targets will be ineffective. Thus, this paper argues for establishing long-term goals emphasizing both adaptation and clean energy to generate equitable and effective global climate policy that addresses this fundamental threat. This requires defining and operationalizing the overall objective contained in Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. A second key aspect to operationalizing Article 2 is to understand those ‘particularly vulnerable’ as declared in the Article and in various climate agreements. Once operationalized, these long-term objectives can be achieved through approaches that emphasize the development of clean energy (and concomitant technology, and adaptation within vulnerable communities in their local context. It necessitates dropping formal mechanisms at the current core of the regime designed to regulate national emissions, and instead build the core of the regime around the ‘stabilization’ of both the climate system through clean energy and vulnerable people through effective adaptation.

  11. Modeling of long-term energy system of Japan

    Gotoh, Yoshitaka; Sato, Osamu; Tadokoro, Yoshihiro

    1999-07-01

    In order to analyze the future potential of reducing carbon dioxide emissions, the long-term energy system of Japan was modeled following the framework of the MARKAL model, and the database of energy technology characteristics was developed. First, a reference energy system was built by incorporating all important energy sources and technologies that will be available until the year 2050. This system consists of 25 primary energy sources, 33 technologies for electric power generation and/or low temperature heat production, 97 technologies for energy transformation, storage, and distribution, and 170 end-use technologies. Second, the database was developed for the characteristics of individual technologies in the system. The characteristic data consists of input and output of energy carriers, efficiency, availability, lifetime, investment cost, operation and maintenance cost, CO 2 emission coefficient, and others. Since a large number of technologies are included in the system, this report focuses modeling of a supply side, and involves the database of energy technologies other than for end-use purposes. (author)

  12. Gap filling strategies for long term energy flux data sets

    Falge, E.; Baldocchi, D.; Olson, R.

    2001-01-01

    At present a network of over 100 field sites are measuring carbon dioxide, water vapor and sensible heat fluxes between the biosphere and atmosphere, on a nearly continuous basis. Gaps in the long term measurements of evaporation and sensible heat flux must be filled before these data can be used...... for hydrological and meteorological applications. We adapted methods of gap filling for NEE (net ecosystem exchange of carbon) to energy fluxes and applied them to data sets available from the EUROFLUX and AmeriFlux eddy covariance databases. The average data coverage for the sites selected was 69% and 75......% for latent heat (lambdaE) and sensible heat (H). The methods were based on mean diurnal variations (half-hourly binned means of fluxes based on previous and subsequent days, MDV) and look-up tables for fluxes during assorted meteorological conditions (LookUp), and the impact of different gap filling methods...

  13. Nuclear energy; real problems of the long term development

    Knapp, V.

    1996-01-01

    Whilst general public accepts the operation of western designed nuclear power stations as safe, waste management and decommission still figure as open problems, although such views are not in agreement with technical and economic status of these operations. A concern with imagined problems can have the effect of neglecting the real ones. In considering the long term development of nuclear energy the real problems can be associated with the wide use of plutonium and multiplication of national reprocessing and enrichment installations. Nuclear proliferation safety could be retained and developed through establishment of international nuclear fuel centres. Their operation would be particularly beneficial for small or medium nuclear countries. Several arguments are given why it is not premature to initiate a study which would identify and analyze the problems of establishing an international nuclear fuel centre. Central Europe could be a region which could be served by one of such nuclear fuel centres. (author)

  14. Long-term scenarios for sustainable energy use in Germany

    Fischedick, M.; Nitsch, J.; Lechtenboehmer, S.; Hanke, T.; Barthel, C.; Jungbluth, C.; Assmann, D.; Brueggen, T. vor der; Trieb, F.; Nast, M.; Langniss, O.; Brischke, L.A.

    2002-01-01

    The study was able to show, and explain vividly through scenarios describing change processes, that a sustainable use of energy (aimed, among other things, at reducing CO 2 emissions by 80% by 2050 compared with 1990 levels) is technically feasible, economically viable, compatible with farther-reaching objectives of energy policy (e.g. supply security), and does not, in spite of the substantial need for change, present the players involved with any insurmountable problems but, rather, constitutes both a challenge and an opportunity. Such a development is possible only if the efforts launched to give momentum to the increased use of renewable energy sources are continued consistently, the impending need for replacement and renewal within the generation system is consistently utilised for increasing efficiency and a reorientation mainly towards combined heat and power production, and energy saving is made a new focal point of energy policy. Furthermore, with regard to long-term infrastructure requirements (decentralisation, new fuels), the necessary decisions must be prepared at an early stage and sufficiently robust lines of development must be identified and followed. (orig.) [de

  15. Long-term cost targets for nuclear energy

    Rogner, H.H.; McDonald, A.

    2004-01-01

    In 2000 the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) began the International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO) to help guide nuclear R and D strategies targeted on anticipated mid-century energy system needs. One part of INPRO seeks to develop cost targets for new designs to be competitive in mid-century markets. The starting point was the 40 scenarios of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This paper summarizes four of the SRES scenarios, one from each of the four SRES scenario families. It discusses their implications for nuclear energy, including cost targets, and develops for each an 'aggressive nuclear' variant. The aggressive nuclear variants estimate the potential market for nuclear energy if, by improving faster than assumed by the SRES authors, nuclear energy can make inroads into vulnerable market shares projected for its competitors. In addition to projected demands for nuclear generated electricity, hydrogen and heat, the aggressive variants include prospective demand for nuclear desalination and use in upgrading fossil fuels. The paper then presents learning rates and implied cost targets consistent with the aggressive nuclear variants of the SRES scenarios. One provocative initial result is that many of the scenarios with substantial nuclear expansion do not seem to require big reductions in nuclear investment costs. One interpretation discussed at the end of the paper highlights the difference between cost reductions consistent with long-term energy system optimization based on perfect foresight, and cost reductions necessary to attract private investment in today's 'deregulating' and uncertain energy markets. (orig.)

  16. Ukraine National Energy Current State and Modelling its Long-Term Development

    Shulzhenko, S.

    2016-01-01

    Structure of Ukrainian energy sector, its current challenges, drivers of its development and possible long-term pathways, and methodological approaches and methods of mathematical modelling of long-term national energy development.(author).

  17. Long-term perspectives: energy, development and the environment

    Nakicenovic, N.

    1997-01-01

    The worldwide demand for energy and the need to minimize the environmental impact present a challenge which has been addressed by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and the World Energy Council (WEC). This paper summarizes the findings of a joint two-year IIASA-WEC study to explore the prospects for improving the global availability and quality of energy services, and the wider implications that these improvements may have. (Author)

  18. Technologies for sustainable energy development in the long term. Proceedings

    Sønderberg Petersen, Leif; Larsen, Hans Hvidtfeldt

    2005-01-01

    The Risø International Energy Conference took place 23 - 25 May 2005 and the aim of the conference was to present and discuss new developments and trends in energy technologies which may make major contributions to sustainable energy developments in thecoming decades. The conference addressed R......&D related to the individual technologies as well as their integration into the local, regional and global energy systems. The proceedings are prepared from papers presented at the conference and received withcorrections, if any, until the final deadline on 15 June 2005....

  19. Delayed Dopamine Signaling of Energy Level Builds Appetitive Long-Term Memory in Drosophila

    Pierre-Yves Musso; Paul Tchenio; Thomas Preat

    2015-01-01

    Sensory cues relevant to a food source, such as odors, can be associated with post-ingestion signals related either to food energetic value or toxicity. Despite numerous behavioral studies, a global understanding of the mechanisms underlying these long delay associations remains out of reach. Here, we demonstrate in Drosophila that the long-term association between an odor and a nutritious sugar depends on delayed post-ingestion signaling of energy level. We show at the neural circuit level t...

  20. Long term perspectives: energy, development and the environment

    Nakicenovic, N.

    1996-01-01

    The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) is investigating the linkages between energy use, development, and environmental change. In a collaborative study with the World Energy Council (WEC) an integrated assessment framework has been used to explore the prospects for improving the global availability and quality of energy services and the wider implications of such improvements. Consequences, such as the likely financing needs and environmental impacts, have been considered. The main features and findings of the joint IIASA-WEC two-year study are summarised in this paper. (8 figures; 6 references). (UK)

  1. Coordinated approaches to quantify long-term ecosystem dynamics in response to global change

    Liu, Y.; Melillo, J.; Niu, S.

    2011-01-01

    a coordinated approach that combines long-term, large-scale global change experiments with process studies and modeling. Long-term global change manipulative experiments, especially in high-priority ecosystems such as tropical forests and high-latitude regions, are essential to maximize information gain......Many serious ecosystem consequences of climate change will take decades or even centuries to emerge. Long-term ecological responses to global change are strongly regulated by slow processes, such as changes in species composition, carbon dynamics in soil and by long-lived plants, and accumulation...... to be the most effective strategy to gain the best information on long-term ecosystem dynamics in response to global change....

  2. Gap filling strategies for long term energy flux data sets

    Falge, E.; Baldocchi, D.; Olson, R.; Anthoni, P.; Aubinet, M.; Bernhofer, C.; Burba, G.; Ceulemans, R.; Clement, R.; Dolman, H.; Granier, A.; Gross, P.; Grünwald, T.; Hollinger, D.; Jensen, N.O.; Katul, G.; Keronen, P.; Kowalski, A.; Lai, C.T.; Law, B.E.; Meyers, T.; Moncrieff, J.; Moors, E.J.; Munger, J.W.; Pilegaard, K.; Rebmann, C.; Suyker, A.; Tenhunen, J.; Tu, K.

    2001-01-01

    At present a network of over 100 field sites are measuring carbon dioxide, water vapor and sensible heat fluxes between the biosphere and atmosphere, on a nearly continuous basis. Gaps in the long term measurements of evaporation and sensible heat flux must be filled before these data can be used

  3. Delayed Dopamine Signaling of Energy Level Builds Appetitive Long-Term Memory in Drosophila

    Pierre-Yves Musso

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Sensory cues relevant to a food source, such as odors, can be associated with post-ingestion signals related either to food energetic value or toxicity. Despite numerous behavioral studies, a global understanding of the mechanisms underlying these long delay associations remains out of reach. Here, we demonstrate in Drosophila that the long-term association between an odor and a nutritious sugar depends on delayed post-ingestion signaling of energy level. We show at the neural circuit level that the activity of two pairs of dopaminergic neurons is necessary and sufficient to signal energy level to the olfactory memory center. Accordingly, we have identified in these dopaminergic neurons a delayed calcium trace that correlates with appetitive long-term memory formation. Altogether, these findings demonstrate that the Drosophila brain remembers food quality through a two-step mechanism that consists of the integration of olfactory and gustatory sensory information and then post-ingestion energetic value.

  4. Long-term preservation of bacon by high energy electrons

    Hannah, K.W.; Simic, M.G.

    1985-01-01

    Extra long-term storage of frozen, vacuum packed, cured bacon can be achieved by electronation, using 3 MeV electrons generated by an electron accelerator. A combination process consisting of low nitrite curing (40 ppm), smoking, vacuum packaging in Saran plastic, electronation (1 to 3 Mrad), and freezing (-10 C) allows storage for at least 2 1/2 years without any noticeable loss in quality, e.g. color, appearance, smell, or taste. This process also eliminates microbiological hazards associated with Salmonella and C. botulinum. Six Mrad tons/hour throughput of a 3 MeV 50 kw electron beam accelerator for standard sliced bacon packaging indicates a practical and economic commercial use for this combination process. (author)

  5. Nuclear power in long term energy strategies in Macedonia

    Volkanovski, A.

    2001-01-01

    The Macedonian Power System (MPS) used to be a part of the former Yugoslav Power System, and it was connected to the European system by 400 kV transmission lines. at the present time, the MPS works isolated from the UCPTE, only connected to the Yugoslav and Greek power systems. The connections with the Bulgarian and Albanian power systems are on a lower voltage level. The reliability and stability of the MPS needs to be improved. Macedonia is located in the central area of the Balkan, where the transmission lines from other Balkan countries are crossing. In the near future, the Macedonian Power System needs to be linked to the European system. To prepare for the energy demand at the beginning of the 21-st century, when the local coal reserves get exhausted, Macedonia needs to start with activities for substitution of the existing coal-fired thermal power plants with nuclear plants. This paper discusses the activities for global development solutions in the area of power generation. (author)

  6. An Integrated Modeling Approach for Forecasting Long-Term Energy Demand in Pakistan

    Syed Aziz Ur Rehman; Yanpeng Cai; Rizwan Fazal; Gordhan Das Walasai; Nayyar Hussain Mirjat

    2017-01-01

    Energy planning and policy development require an in-depth assessment of energy resources and long-term demand forecast estimates. Pakistan, unfortunately, lacks reliable data on its energy resources as well do not have dependable long-term energy demand forecasts. As a result, the policy makers could not come up with an effective energy policy in the history of the country. Energy demand forecast has attained greatest ever attention in the perspective of growing population and diminishing fo...

  7. Considerations on long-term energy prospects in Italy

    Campos Venuti, G; Frullani, S; Tabet, E; Vecchia, P

    1977-11-07

    The different implications of alternative energy sources (nuclear, fusion, and solar) for Italy are discussed from the environmental, economic, and political viewpoint. Natural limits to the increase of energy production and some energy conservation measures are also considered.

  8. Long term energy demand projections for croatian transport sector

    Puksec, Tomislav; Mathiesen, Brian Vad; Duic, Neven

    2011-01-01

    Transport sector in Croatia represents one of the largest consumers of energy today with a share of almost one third of final energy demand. That is why improving energy efficiency and implementing different mechanisms that would lead to energy savings in this sector would be relevant. Through th...

  9. Coordinated approaches to quantify long-term ecosystem dynamics in response to global change

    Yiqi Luo; Jerry Melillo; Shuli Niu; Claus Beier; James S. Clark; Aime E.T. Classen; Eric Dividson; Jeffrey S. Dukes; R. Dave Evans; Christopher B. Field; Claudia I. Czimczik; Michael Keller; Bruce A. Kimball; Lara M. Kueppers; Richard J. Norby; Shannon L. Pelini; Elise Pendall; Edward Rastetter; Johan Six; Melinda Smith; Mark G. Tjoelker; Margaret S. Torn

    2011-01-01

    Many serious ecosystem consequences of climate change will take decades or even centuries to emerge. Long-term ecological responses to global change are strongly regulated by slow processes, such as changes in species composition, carbon dynamics in soil and by long-lived plants, and accumulation of nutrient capitals. Understanding and predicting these processes...

  10. Some aspects of hydrogen as a long-term energy carrier

    Quakernaat, J.; De Jong, K.P.; Van Wechem, H.M.H.; Okken, P.A.; Lako, P.; Ybema, J.R.

    1994-11-01

    Hydrogen as a secondary energy carrier received extensive and worldwide attention some ten to fifteen years ago. The developments in the energy market since then have reduced the interest in hydrogen. However, the increased concern for the environment and new technical options have brought hydrogen to the centre of attention once again. These considerations led to the organization of the National Hydrogen Seminar, held on 19 November 1993 at ECN, Petten, Netherlands. Eight experts in the field of hydrogen illustrated the possibilities and prospects of the production, storage and use of hydrogen as an energy carrier. In this report three of these contributions are presented, for which separate abstracts have been prepared. The first paper is on hydrogen in a global long-term perspective, in the second paper carbon is considered as a hydrogen carrier or as a disappearing skeleton, and in the third paper attention is paid to the cost effective integration of hydrogen in energy systems with CO 2 constraints

  11. China's building energy demand: Long-term implications from a detailed assessment

    Eom, Jiyong; Clarke, Leon; Kim, Son H.; Kyle, Page; Patel, Pralit

    2012-01-01

    Buildings are an important contributor to China's energy consumption and attendant CO 2 emissions. Measures to address energy consumption and associated emissions from the buildings sector will be an important part of strategy to reduce the country's CO 2 emissions. This study presents a detailed, service-based model of China's building energy demand, nested in the GCAM (Global Change Assessment Model) integrated assessment framework. Using the model, we explored long-term pathways of China's building energy demand and identified opportunities to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. A range of different scenarios was also developed to gain insights into how China's building sector might evolve and what the implications might be for improved building energy technology and carbon policies. The analysis suggests that China's building energy growth will not wane anytime soon, although technology improvement will put downward pressure on this growth: In the reference scenarios, the sector's final energy demand will increase by 110–150% by 2050 and 160–220% by 2095 from its 2005 level. Also, regardless of the scenarios represented, the growth will involve the continued, rapid electrification of the buildings sector throughout the century, and this transition will be accelerated by the implementation of carbon policy. -- Highlights: ► We developed a building energy model for China, nested in an integrated-assessment framework. ► We explore long-term pathways of China's building energy use by implementing a range of scenarios. ► China's building energy consumption will continue to grow and be electrified over the century. ► Improved building energy technology will slow down the growth in building energy consumption. ► Electrification will be accelerated by the implementation of carbon policy.

  12. Energy Leap (Energiesprong). Long-term Plan. Update 2011

    NONE

    2011-12-15

    The Dutch government considers the transition process to be necessary and stimulates investments in energy innovations in the built environment. This innovation effort is the programme 'Energy Leap' (Energiesprong), which is being carried out by the Steering Group Experimental Housing (SEV) on behalf of the Dutch Ministry of the Interior and Kingdom Relations (BZK). The programme is derived from the Innovation Agenda for Energy in the Built Environment. The SEV 'Energy Leap' programme aims to make a substantial contribution to the conditions under which the energy transition can be achieved effectively. In this basic plan, it is explained how the market can arrive at this, and which activities will be supported, set up and/or implemented by Energy Leap.

  13. Energy Leap (Energiesprong). Long-term Plan. Update 2011

    NONE

    2011-12-15

    The Dutch government considers the transition process to be necessary and stimulates investments in energy innovations in the built environment. This innovation effort is the programme 'Energy Leap' (Energiesprong), which is being carried out by the Steering Group Experimental Housing (SEV) on behalf of the Dutch Ministry of the Interior and Kingdom Relations (BZK). The programme is derived from the Innovation Agenda for Energy in the Built Environment. The SEV 'Energy Leap' programme aims to make a substantial contribution to the conditions under which the energy transition can be achieved effectively. In this basic plan, it is explained how the market can arrive at this, and which activities will be supported, set up and/or implemented by Energy Leap.

  14. Long Term Outlook of Energy Sector in Serbia

    Dajic, N.; Mesarovic, M.

    2008-01-01

    Major Serbian energy policy goals set up by the new Energy Law (2004) emerge from the purpose to establish qualitatively new working and development conditions inside the energy production and consumption sectors under the new circumstances in the country and in the region of South Eastern Europe. This is expected to give a new impetus to the economic development of the Republic of Serbia by increasing energy efficiency, intensifying the use of renewable energy sources and reducing harmful emissions from energy production and consumption sectors, as well as to ease integration into regional and European energy markets. The above has also been de?ned by the 'Strategy of Serbian Energy Sector Development by the Year 2015' (adopted by the Serbian Parliament in 2005) and in more details by the 'Programme of the Implementation of the Strategy by the Year 2012' (adopted by the Serbian Government in 2007). Based on these strategic and other documents, which were drawn up with participation of the Serbian WEC MC as well, this paper presents a vision of the Serbian energy sector development during the period up to the year 2030.(author)

  15. The USSR long-term energy program in action

    Troitskij, A.A.; Shamrayev, N.G.; Makarov, A.A.; Volfberg, D.B.; Pravednikov, N.K.

    1989-09-01

    Five years have passed since the adoption of the USSR Energy Program developed up to the end of the 20th century. The present report covers main results of this Program. Fuel production and extraction has grown up, substantial increases have been achieved in electricity production, improvements have been made in the energy balance structure and energy efficiency of public production. The arrears in oil and coal production which became apparent in the early 80s were caught up, and losses of associated petroleum gases were lowered. The actual production of natural gas has turned out to be higher as compared with the level stipulated in the Program. The Chernobyl accident has contributed to a certain limitation in the scale of growth of nuclear electricity production. Nevertheless, the nuclear power industry remains to be the most dynamically developing branch in electricity production. Of paramount importance in the USSR Energy Program is the role played by the progress of science and technology - the major means of raising efficiency of the fuel-and-energy complex and achieving the targets in the field of energy conservation. It is also planned to show the role of the USSR Energy Program in solving energy problems in CMEA member countries, in developing mutually beneficial international cooperation in the field of energy. 2 tabs

  16. Long-term energy supply programs in West Germany

    Schmidt-Kuester, W J; Wagner, H F

    1977-07-01

    A discussion of the energy research and development plans, priorities, strategies, timetables, and current projects of the West German Government covers the measures aimed at the rational use of energy for home heating, expanded electricity production by light-water reactors, and solar energy use for hot-water production by 1985; at energy savings in industry and transport, improvements in secondary energy technology, large-scale production of gas, electricity, liquids, and coke from coal, underground gasification, construction of fast breeder reactors, solar heating in industrial applications, and local use of geothermal and wind energy by 2000; and at complete reliance on coal, nuclear fission, controlled nuclear fusion, and solar sources after the year 2000; the changes in the energy supply and demand structure in these periods; the share of the various projects in the B.R.D. budget for energy; and the status of current pilot-plant activity in the areas of, e.g., liquefaction, gasification, fission, and energy conversion and storage.

  17. Long term trends in world energy demand and supply

    Frisch, J.

    1992-01-01

    In this address, the author discusses projected changes in fuel use, shifts in energy consumption and projected increases in carbon dioxide emissions. He expects these energy issues to cause geopolitical uncertainties that will complicate attempts to reduce greenhouse gases. There is great concern for the poverty-stricken areas of Asia and Africa. Thirty-five to forty-five percent of their energy needs will be supplied by scarce fuelwood and poor animal and vegetal residues by the year 2020. International cooperation will be needed to alleviate the tensions caused by these inequities of energy supplies

  18. Environmental radioactivity. Global transport, distribution and its long-term variation

    Hirose, Katsumi

    2015-01-01

    Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (F1NPP) accident, which occurred as a result of huge earthquake and resulting tsunami, had a severe impact on world communities as did Japanese, because of cause of serious radioactivity contamination in the environment. Long-term effects of radioactivity contamination from F1NPP are concerned. To assess the long-term environmental effects of the F1NPP accident, it is important to review the history of global radioactivity contamination, which started from Hiroshima and Nagasaki nuclear explosions in Aug. 1945. Radionuclides released in the environment as a result of atmospheric nuclear explosions, nuclear reactor accident and others are migrated between atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere and lithosphere according to natural processes. We describe long-term environmental behaviors of anthropogenic radionuclides derived from the atmospheric nuclear explosions and others, which is useful to predict the behaviors and fate of the F1NPP-derived radionuclides. (author)

  19. Outlook for world nuclear power generation and long-term energy supply and demand situations

    Matsuo, Yuhji

    2012-01-01

    In this article, the author presents a long-term outlook for the world's nuclear generating capacity, taking into account the nuclear policy changes after Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident. World primary energy demand will grow from 11.2 billion tons of oil equivalent (toe) in 2009 to 17.3 billion toe in 2035. Along with this rapid increase in global energy consumption, the world's nuclear generating capacity will grow from 392 GW in 2010 to 484 GW in 2020 and 574 GW in 2035 in the 'Reference scenario'. Even in the 'Low nuclear scenario', where the maximum impact of Fukushima accident to the nuclear policies of each government is assumed, it will continue to grow in the future, exceeding 500 GW in 2035. In particular, Asian countries such as China and India will lead the growth both in the energy demand and in the nuclear power capacity. Therefore, it is essential to better ensure the safety of nuclear power generation. It is important for technologically developed countries, including Japan, to make active contributions to the establishment of a global nuclear safety control system. On the other hand, energy security and global warming will continue to be major issues, which will make it indispensable to make the best effort to save energy and expand renewable energy utilization. Japan is competitive in energy-saving and environmental conservation technologies, thus further development and utilization of there technologies should be a key option of Japan's growth growth strategy in the future. (author)

  20. Long-term Energy Efficiency Improvement for Transport, Technology Assessments

    Van Binsbergen, A.J.; Erkens, A.; Hamel, B.

    1994-01-01

    In part one of this report, general transport and transport-flow measures are described. By using other modes of transport than road-vehicles, it is possible to save energy. An advanced park-and-ride system can lead to a 27% reduction in energy use per passengerkilometre; in 2040 at most 10% of the

  1. Long term energy-related environmental issues of copper production

    Alvarado, S. [University of Chile, Santiago (Chile). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering; Maldonado, P.; Barrios, A.; Jaques, I. [University of Chile, Santiago (Chile). Energy Research Program

    2002-02-01

    Primary copper production is a major activity in the mining sector of several countries. However, it is highly energy-intensive and poses important environmental hazards. In the case of Chile, the world's largest copper producer (40% of world total), we examine its energy consumption and energy-related environmental implications over a time horizon of 25 years. Concerning the latter, we focus on greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions, one of the most debated environmental issues. This paper follows up our previous report in which the current situation was analyzed and a particular technical option for improving the energy efficiency and concurrently reducing GHG emissions was discussed. Estimated reference or base (BS) and mitigation (MS) scenarios are developed for the period ending in 2020. The former assesses the energy demand projected in accordance with production forecasts and specific energy consumption patterns (assuming that energy efficiency measures are adopted 'spontaneously') with their resultant GHG emissions, while the latter assumes induced actions intended to reduce emissions by adopting an aggressive policy of efficient energy use. For the year 2020, the main results are: (i) BS, 1214 t of CO{sub 2}/ton of refined copper content (49% lower than in 1994); (ii) MS, 1037 t of CO{sub 2}/t of refined copper content (56% lower than in 1994). CO{sub 2} emissions have been estimated considering both fuel and electricity process requirements. (author)

  2. Long term energy-related environmental issues of copper production

    Alvarado, S.; Maldonado, P.; Barrios, A.; Jaques, I.

    2002-01-01

    Primary copper production is a major activity in the mining sector of several countries. However, it is highly energy-intensive and poses important environmental hazards. In the case of Chile, the world's largest copper producer (40% of world total), we examine its energy consumption and energy-related environmental implications over a time horizon of 25 years. Concerning the latter, we focus on greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions, one of the most debated environmental issues. This paper follows up our previous report in which the current situation was analyzed and a particular technical option for improving the energy efficiency and concurrently reducing GHG emissions was discussed. Estimated reference or base (BS) and mitigation (MS) scenarios are developed for the period ending in 2020. The former assesses the energy demand projected in accordance with production forecasts and specific energy consumption patterns (assuming that energy efficiency measures are adopted 'spontaneously') with their resultant GHG emissions, while the latter assumes induced actions intended to reduce emissions by adopting an aggressive policy of efficient energy use. For the year 2020, the main results are: (i) BS, 1214 t of CO 2 /ton of refined copper content (49% lower than in 1994); (ii) MS, 1037 t of CO 2 /t of refined copper content (56% lower than in 1994). CO 2 emissions have been estimated considering both fuel and electricity process requirements. (author)

  3. Role of the breeder in long-term energy economics

    Kosobud, R.F.; Daly, T.A.; Chang, Y.I.

    1982-01-01

    Private and public decisions affecting the use of nuclear and other energy technologies over a long-run time horizon were studied using the ETA-MACRO model which provides for economic- and energy-sector interactions. The impact on the use of competing energy technologies of a public decision to apply benefit-cost analysis to the production of carbon dioxide that enters the atmosphere is considered. Assuming the public choice is to impose an appropriate penalty tax on those technologies which generate CO 2 and to allow decentralized private decisions to choose the optimal mix of energy technologies that maximize a nonlinear objective function subject to constraints, the study showed that breeder technology provides a much-larger share of domestically consumed energy. Having the breeder technology available as a substitute permits control of CO 2 without significant reductions in consumption or gross national product growth paths

  4. Closing the gap between short- and long-term scenarios for nuclear energy

    Toth, F. L.; Rogner, H.-H.

    2005-01-01

    Many scenarios published in recent years explore the driving forces and assess plausible ranges of global energy use and the resources they draw on. Some scenarios (e.g., OECD IEA, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development International Energy Agency, 2004) focus on the next decade or two and project the evolution of world energy demand, supply as well as the resources, technologies, and prices to match them. Other scenarios (e.g., the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, SRES, prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, 2000) explore the long term with a view to resource availability and depletion, technological transformations, and environmental concerns, predominantly climate change. A persistent gap (see Figure 1) can be observed in the projections for nuclear energy: near-term scenarios typically project a flat or slightly declining contribution of nuclear energy to the world energy supply whereas medium- and long-term scenarios anticipate significant increases. The magnitude of the gap between the OECD IEA (2002) projections and the median of the 40 IPCC SRES scenarios for the year 2020 amounts to almost 300 GWe installed capacity. Reasons for the gap originate in the differences between the analytical frameworks (including projection techniques) adopted by the short- and long-term studies. Another, closely related reason is the difference in the underlying assumptions, particularly their relations to recent trends and the current situation. In addition, near-term projections are heavily influenced by the social context (perceived unpopularity or outright rejection of nuclear power after Chernobyl), political factors (government pronouncements and policies at the national level, diplomacy and balancing of national positions at international organizations), economic aspects (energy market deregulation and liberalization unveiling excess capacities; financial risks), technology matters (the role of learning, definition of

  5. Role of the breeder in long term energy economics

    Kosobud, R.F.; Chang, Y.I.; Daly, T.A.

    1982-01-01

    In this study the authors report the results of their study of private and public decisions affecting the use of nuclear and other energy technologies over a long run time horizon. For this purpose, the authors employ the well known ETA-MACRO model which provides for economic and energy sector interactions. In this first of their planned series of studies, they consider the impact on the use of competing energy technologies of a public decision to apply benefit-cost analysis to the production of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) that enters the atmosphere. Assuming the public choice is to impose an appropriate penalty tax on those technologies which generate CO 2 and to allow decentralized private decisions to choose the optimal mix of energy technologies that maximize a nonlinear objective function subject to constraints, the authors find that the breeder technology is chosen to provide a much larger share of domestically consumed energy. Having the breeder technology available as a substitute permits control of CO 2 without significant reductions in consumption or gross national product growth paths

  6. The Methodology of Management for Long Term Energy Efficiency Development

    Zebergs, V.; Kehris, O.; Savickis, J.; Zeltins, N.

    2010-01-01

    The paper has shown that the Member States of the European Union (EU) do what they can in order to accelerate the raising of energy efficiency (EE). In each EU Member State investigations are conducted in the planning and management methods with a view to achieve faster and greater EE gains. In Latvia, which imports almost 70% of the total energy resources consumed, saving of each 'toe' is of great importance. Adaptation of the general policy assessment methodology is being studied for planning and management of the EE process. 12 EE management methods have been analysed and recommendations worked out for the introduction of several most topical methods.(author).

  7. Impacts of high energy prices on long-term energy-economic scenarios for Germany

    Krey, V.; Markewitz, P. [Research Center Juelich, Inst. of Energy Res., Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation, Juelich (Germany); Horn, M. [DIW Berlin, Berlin (Germany); Matthes, C.; Graichen, V.; Harthan, R.O.; Repenning, J. [Oeko-Institut, Berlin (Germany)

    2007-05-15

    Prices of oil and other fossil fuels on global markets have reached a high level in recent years. These levels were not able to be reproduced on the basis of scenarios and prognoses that were published in the past. New scenarios, based on higher energy price trajectories, have appeared only recently. The future role of various energy carriers and technologies in energy-economic scenarios will greatly depend on the level of energy prices. Therefore, an analysis of the impact of high energy prices on long-term scenarios for Germany was undertaken. Based on a reference scenario with moderate prices, a series of consistent high price scenarios for primary and secondary energy carriers were developed. Two scenarios with (i) continuously rising price trajectories and (ii) a price shock with a price peak during the period 2010-15 and a subsequent decline to the reference level are analysed. Two types of models have been applied in the analysis. The IKARUS energy systems optimisation model covers the whole of the German energy system from primary energy supply down to the end-use sectors. Key results in both high price scenarios include a replacement of natural gas by hard coal and renewable energy sources in electricity and heat generation. Backstop technologies like coal liquefaction begin to play a role under such conditions. Up to 10% of final energy consumption is saved in the end-use sectors, with the residential and transport sector being the greatest contributors. Even without additional restrictions, CO{sub 2} emissions significantly drop in comparison to the reference scenario. The ELIAS electricity investment analysis model focuses on the power sector. In the reference scenario with current allocation rules in the emissions trading scheme, the CO{sub 2} emissions decrease relatively steadily. The development is characterised by the phaseout of nuclear energy which is counterweighted by the increase of renewable. In the high price scenario, the CO{sub 2

  8. Long term effects of an energy efficiency advertising campaign

    Wortmann, Klaus; Moehring-Hueser, Werner [Energiestiftung Schleswig-Holstein, Kiel (Germany)

    2003-07-01

    A professional marketing approach should support a transformation of the market towards more energy efficient decisions not only of consumers, but also of retailers and producers. The state-wide energy efficiency advertising campaign 'Aus. Wirklich aus?' (off. really off?) against pointless stand-by consumption took place in Schleswig-Holstein (Northern Germany) from November 2000 until June 2001 followed by reminder ads in autumn 2001 and spring 2002. Extraordinary efforts were undertaken to evaluate the effects of the campaign, because it served as a pilot project for an approach on the national level. Two representative samples of the population and specialist dealers for electrical equipment in two German states (one as 'control group') were interviewed by phone before the launch of the campaign, at the peak of the advertising pressure and one year after. The results are presented with special emphasis on sustainable effects with respect to energy awareness and interest of the consumers as well as on their intention to act and on specific actions like switching the TV (really) off. For most of these criteria long lasting effects could be observed. Also the retailers steadily increased their own (additional) activities to profit from the campaign. The results are discussed with respect to economical cost-benefit-arguments and in the light of psychological theories of information processing in order to describe the essential lessons learned for successful energy efficiency campaigns in the future.

  9. New energy Era: Short Term and Long Term.

    Beckwith, Robert

    This paper examines the causes and effects of the 1973 oil embargo imposed by OPEC. The author notes that since the embargo, little positive action has been taken to reduce American dependence upon a very limited and very expensive energy source. In order to achieve any degree of independence, it will be necessary to repidly expand coal and…

  10. Forecasting long-term energy demand of Croatian transport sector

    Pukšec, Tomislav; Krajačić, Goran; Lulić, Zoran

    2013-01-01

    predictions for the Croatian transport sector are presented. Special emphasis is given to different influencing mechanisms, both legal and financial. The energy demand predictions presented in this paper are based on an end-use simulation model developed and tested with Croatia as a case study. The model...

  11. Long term energy performance analysis of Egbin thermal power ...

    This study is aimed at providing an energy performance analysis of Egbin thermal power plant. The plant operates on Regenerative Rankine cycle with steam as its working fluid .The model equations were formulated based on some performance parameters used in power plant analysis. The considered criteria were plant ...

  12. BRUS2. An energy system simulator for long term planning

    Skytte, K.; Skjerk Christensen, P.

    1999-01-01

    BRUS2 is a technical-economic bottom-up scenario model. The objective of BRUS2 is to provide decision-makers with information on consequences of given trends of parameters of society like population growth and productivity, and of political goals, e.g., energy saving initiatives. BRUS2 simulates ...

  13. Evaluating grasses as a long-term energy resource

    Christian, D.G.; Riche, A.B.

    2001-07-01

    The work reported here is part of an ongoing project that aims to evaluate the yields of three perennial rhizomatous grasses and determine their suitability as bio-energy crops. The work began in 1993, and the grasses have been monitored continuously since that time. This report covers the period 1999/2000, and includes: the performance of plots of the energy grasses Miscanthus grass, switchgrass and reed canary grass seven years after they were planted; assessment of the yield of 15 genotypes of Miscanthus planted in 1997; monitoring all the species throughout the growing period for the presence of pests, weeds and diseases; measurement of the amount of nitrate leached from below Miscanthus grass; investigating the occurrence of lodging in switchgrass. (Author)

  14. Delayed dopamine signaling of energy level builds appetitive long-term memory in Drosophila.

    Musso, Pierre-Yves; Tchenio, Paul; Preat, Thomas

    2015-02-24

    Sensory cues relevant to a food source, such as odors, can be associated with post-ingestion signals related either to food energetic value or toxicity. Despite numerous behavioral studies, a global understanding of the mechanisms underlying these long delay associations remains out of reach. Here, we demonstrate in Drosophila that the long-term association between an odor and a nutritious sugar depends on delayed post-ingestion signaling of energy level. We show at the neural circuit level that the activity of two pairs of dopaminergic neurons is necessary and sufficient to signal energy level to the olfactory memory center. Accordingly, we have identified in these dopaminergic neurons a delayed calcium trace that correlates with appetitive long-term memory formation. Altogether, these findings demonstrate that the Drosophila brain remembers food quality through a two-step mechanism that consists of the integration of olfactory and gustatory sensory information and then post-ingestion energetic value. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Time-Dependent Global Sensitivity Analysis for Long-Term Degeneracy Model Using Polynomial Chaos

    Jianbin Guo

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Global sensitivity is used to quantify the influence of uncertain model inputs on the output variability of static models in general. However, very few approaches can be applied for the sensitivity analysis of long-term degeneracy models, as far as time-dependent reliability is concerned. The reason is that the static sensitivity may not reflect the completed sensitivity during the entire life circle. This paper presents time-dependent global sensitivity analysis for long-term degeneracy models based on polynomial chaos expansion (PCE. Sobol’ indices are employed as the time-dependent global sensitivity since they provide accurate information on the selected uncertain inputs. In order to compute Sobol’ indices more efficiently, this paper proposes a moving least squares (MLS method to obtain the time-dependent PCE coefficients with acceptable simulation effort. Then Sobol’ indices can be calculated analytically as a postprocessing of the time-dependent PCE coefficients with almost no additional cost. A test case is used to show how to conduct the proposed method, then this approach is applied to an engineering case, and the time-dependent global sensitivity is obtained for the long-term degeneracy mechanism model.

  16. Long-term climate monitoring by the global climate observing system

    Karl, T.R.

    1995-12-01

    Is the climate warming? Is the hydrologic cycle changing? Is the atmospheric/oceanic circulation changing? Is the climate becoming more variable or extreme? Is radiative forcing of the climate changing? are complex questions not only from the standpoint of a multi-variate problem, but because of the various aspects of spatial and temporal sampling that must be considered on a global scale. The development of a Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) offers the opportunity for scientists to do something about existing observing deficiencies in light of the importance of documenting long-term climate changes that may already be affected by anthropogenic changes of atmospheric composition and land use as well as other naturally occurring changes. As an important step toward improving the present inadequacies, a workshop was held to help define the long-term monitoring requirements minimally needed to address the five questions posed above, with special emphasis on detecting anthropogenic climate change and its potential impact on managed and unmanaged systems The workshop focussed on three broad areas related to long-term climate monitoring: (a) the scientific rationale for the long-term climate products (including their accuracy, resolution, and homogeneity) required from our observing systems as related to climate monitoring and climate change detection and attribution; (b) the status of long-term climate products and the observing systems from which these data are derived; and (c) implementation strategies necessary to fulfill item (a) in light of existing systems. Item (c) was treated more in terms of feasibility rather than as a specific implementation plan. figs., tabs., refs

  17. Improving the long-term sustainability of health aid: are Global Health Partnerships leading the way?

    Dodd, Rebecca; Lane, Christopher

    2010-09-01

    Over the last decade development assistance for health has more than doubled. This increase provides an unprecedented opportunity to scale up health services, and in doing so, achieve the health Millennium Development Goals. However, sustaining scaling up will in turn require sustainable donor support until domestic health financing can substitute for it. The provision of long-term predictable finance is of particular concern in health because the bulk of costs are recurrent and many interventions require sustained, multi-year support to be successful. This is also true for health systems strengthening efforts. As the bulk of new aid resources flow through Global Health Partnerships (GHPs), their ability to make long-term commitments is critical to health systems development. In order to better understand the constraints that prevent development partners from making long-term commitments of health aid, the World Health Organization reviewed the practices of seven major health partners in committing development assistance funds over the long term. The review found increasing evidence of long-term commitments of aid for health in each of the seven agencies. The GHPs and their funders have been at the forefront of this trend, pioneering many of the new approaches. The study concludes that all partners have scope to improve the duration of aid within existing rules and regulations, and that the main constraints to doing so are political. Predictability is even more of a concern in current global economic circumstances, as access to resources begins to be squeezed. In this context it is important that we learn from GHPs, which have successfully tested innovative approaches to both raising and disbursing health funds. The prospects for change associated with the new administration in the United States-the largest health donor and the most unpredictable, but also a major supporter of GHPs-make this task even more urgent.

  18. Long-term atomic energy research, development and utilization program

    1980-01-01

    This is the revised version of the last long-range program (June, 1972), and covers the measures and plans for promoting the research, development and utilization of nuclear power in some in some ten years ahead. The basic policy lines include the assurance of peaceful use of atomic energy, safety assurence and public support, independence and international cooperation and the planned implementation of nuclear research and development projects. The target scale of nuclear power development is estimated at 33 million kilowatts by fiscal 1985 and 60 million kilowatts by fiscal 1990, respectively. The improvement and standardization of light water reactors are to be further carried on till fiscal 1980 and after. Sodium-cooled reactors, which use the oxide fuel based on the mixture of plutonium and uranium, will be developed. A prototype reactor of about 300,000 kilowatt electric capacity will reach criticality in the second half of 1980's. The research and development of the advanced thermal reactors, for which plutonium and depleted uranium are used, will be encouraged. Multipurpose high-temperature gas-cooled reactors are also to be developed. The measures for establishing the nuclear fuel cycle including the procurement of natural and enriched uranium, the reprocessing of spent fuel, the use of plutonium and the treatment and disposal of radioactive wastes are described. Nuclear fusion, nuclear ships, the use of radiation, safety studies, fundamental studies and the training of scientists and technicians are stipulated, respectively. The promotion of nuclear research and development projects is explained in detail. (Okada, K.)

  19. The role of nuclear energy system for Korean long-term energy supply strategy

    Chae, K.N.; Lee, D.G.; Lim, C.Y.; Lee, B.W.

    1995-01-01

    The energy supply optimization model MESSAGE-III is improved to evaluate the role of nuclear energy system in Korean long-term energy supply strategy. Emphasis is placed on the potential contribution of nuclear energy in case of environmental constraints and energy resource limitation. The time horizon is 1993-2040. A program to forecast useful energy demand is developed, and optimization is performed from the overall energy system to the nuclear energy system. Reactor and fuel cycle strategy and the expanded utilization options for nuclear energy system are suggested. FBRs, HTGRs and thorium fuel cycle would play key roles in the long run. The most important factors for nuclear energy in Korean energy supply strategy would be the availability of fossil fuels, CO 2 reduction regulation, and the supply capability of nuclear energy. (author)

  20. Global variation in the long-term seasonal changes observed in ionospheric F region data

    C. J. Scott

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Long-term variability has previously been observed in the relative magnitude of annual and semi-annual variations in the critical frequency (related to the peak electron concentration of the ionospheric F2 layer (foF2. In this paper we investigate the global patterns in such variability by calculating the time varying power ratio of semi-annual to annual components seen in ionospheric foF2 data sequences from 77 ionospheric monitoring stations around the world. The temporal variation in power ratios observed at each station was then correlated with the same parameter calculated from similar epochs for the Slough/Chilton data set (for which there exists the longest continuous sequence of ionospheric data. This technique reveals strong regional variation in the data, which bears a striking similarity to the regional variation observed in long-term changes to the height of the ionospheric F2 layer. We argue that since both the height and peak density of the ionospheric F2 region are influenced by changes to thermospheric circulation and composition, the observed long-term and regional variability can be explained by such changes. In the absence of long-term measurements of thermospheric composition, detailed modelling work is required to investigate these processes.

  1. Diversity in OECD energy consumption: Achievements and long-term goals

    Heal, D.W.

    1990-01-01

    Energy consumption in the industrialized world has resumed a rising trend but has been moderated by increased energy efficiency. The demand for energy is also being spread more evenly over a variety of fuels. This paper provides a measure for diversity and examines the implications for energy prices, while reiterating the long-term goal of lower energy consumption

  2. Global long-term ozone trends derived from different observed and modelled data sets

    Coldewey-Egbers, M.; Loyola, D.; Zimmer, W.; van Roozendael, M.; Lerot, C.; Dameris, M.; Garny, H.; Braesicke, P.; Koukouli, M.; Balis, D.

    2012-04-01

    The long-term behaviour of stratospheric ozone amounts during the past three decades is investigated on a global scale using different observed and modelled data sets. Three European satellite sensors GOME/ERS-2, SCIAMACHY/ENVISAT, and GOME-2/METOP are combined and a merged global monthly mean total ozone product has been prepared using an inter-satellite calibration approach. The data set covers the 16-years period from June 1995 to June 2011 and it exhibits an excellent long-term stability, which is required for such trend studies. A multiple linear least-squares regression algorithm using different explanatory variables is applied to the time series and statistically significant positive trends are detected in the northern mid latitudes and subtropics. Global trends are also estimated using a second satellite-based Merged Ozone Data set (MOD) provided by NASA. For few selected geographical regions ozone trends are additionally calculated using well-maintained measurements of individual Dobson/Brewer ground-based instruments. A reasonable agreement in the spatial patterns of the trends is found amongst the European satellite, the NASA satellite, and the ground-based observations. Furthermore, two long-term simulations obtained with the Chemistry-Climate Models E39C-A provided by German Aerospace Center and UMUKCA-UCAM provided by University of Cambridge are analysed.

  3. Nuclear energy contribution to restraining greenhouse gas emissions and long-term energy production

    Khoda-Bakhsh, R.

    2004-01-01

    An important source of greenhouse gases, in particular Co 2 , is fossil fuel combustion for energy applications. Since nuclear power is an energy source that does not produce Co 2 , nuclear energy is already making a contribution to restraining greenhouse gas emissions. Because it has been internationally decided to reduce carbon dioxide emission before the year 2005 in order to avoid the green house catastrophy of the earth's atmosphere, and since there is an urgent need of energy especially in the developing countries, there is now a strong demand for alternative energy sources. While the established low cost energy production by light water nuclear fission reactors could be a solution for a period of transition (limited by resources of the light Uranium isotope), fusion energy is of interest for long- term and large scale energy production to provide the increased energy demand

  4. Zero emission targets as long-term global goals for climate protection

    Rogelj, Joeri; Riahi, Keywan; Schaeffer, Michiel; Hare, William; Meinshausen, Malte; Knutti, Reto; Alcamo, Joseph

    2015-01-01

    Recently, assessments have robustly linked stabilization of global-mean temperature rise to the necessity of limiting the total amount of emitted carbon-dioxide (CO 2 ). Halting global warming thus requires virtually zero annual CO 2 emissions at some point. Policymakers have now incorporated this concept in the negotiating text for a new global climate agreement, but confusion remains about concepts like carbon neutrality, climate neutrality, full decarbonization, and net zero carbon or net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Here we clarify these concepts, discuss their appropriateness to serve as a long-term global benchmark for achieving temperature targets, and provide a detailed quantification. We find that with current pledges and for a likely (>66%) chance of staying below 2 °C, the scenario literature suggests net zero CO 2 emissions between 2060 and 2070, with net negative CO 2 emissions thereafter. Because of residual non-CO 2 emissions, net zero is always reached later for total GHG emissions than for CO 2 . Net zero emissions targets are a useful focal point for policy, linking a global temperature target and socio-economic pathways to a necessary long-term limit on cumulative CO 2 emissions. (letter)

  5. The role and position of nuclear energy in the long-term energy supply of China

    Bao Yunqiao

    1992-03-01

    The history for development of world nuclear energy and policies in various countries are retrospected, and the development of world nuclear energy is reviewed. On the basis of analysis for the economy of nuclear power in abroad, it is verified that the cost of nuclear power is cheaper than that of coal-fired power. In the future, the nuclear power is still competitive in economy. The prospect for long-term energy supply in China is predicted on the present situation of energy industry. It is estimated that the gap between energy demands and supply will become larger and larger. The solution is to develop nuclear energy in south-east area. The long-term demands of electricity and electrical resources are estimated in China, and if nuclear energy is utilized, it will optimize the constitution of electricity. The economy of nuclear power is also evaluated. It is expected that the nuclear power will be cheaper than that of coal-fired power in China after equipment are made domestically and serially. From the analysis of the conditions of communication, transportation and pollution, the development of nuclear energy will reduce the tension of transportation and improve the environmental quality. Finally, the prospect of developing nuclear heating and the supply level of uranium resources in China are analyzed

  6. Potentials for energy savings and long term energy demand of Croatian households sector

    Pukšec, Tomislav; Vad Mathiesen, Brian; Duić, Neven

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► Long term energy demand of Croatian households sector has been modelled. ► Developed model can describe the whole households sector. ► Main modes include heating, cooling, electrical appliances, cooking and hot water. ► Different scenarios regarding future energy demand are presented and discussed. -- Abstract: Households represent one of the most interesting sectors, when analyzing Croatia’s energy balance. It makes up one of the largest energy consumers with around 75 PJ per year, which is almost 29% of Croatia’s final energy demand. Considering this consumption, implementing various mechanisms, which would lead to improvements in energy efficiency of this sector, seems relevant. In order to plan future energy systems, important would be to know future possibilities and needs regarding energy demand of different sectors. Through this paper, long term energy demand projections of Croatian households sector will be shown. Focus of the paper will be on various mechanisms influencing future energy demand scenarios. Important would be to quantify this influence, whether positive or negative, and see which mechanisms would be the most significant. Energy demand projections in this paper are based upon bottom-up approach model which combines and processes a large number of input data. The model will be compared to Croatian National Energy Strategy and certain differences and conclusions will be presented. One of the major conclusions shown in this paper is significant possibilities for energy efficiency improvements and lower energy demand in the future, based on careful and rational energy planning. Different financial, legal and technological mechanisms can lead to significant savings in the households sector which leads to lower GHG emissions and lower Croatian dependence on foreign fossil fuels.

  7. Potentials for energy savings and long term energy demands for Croatian households sector

    Pukšec, Tomislav; Mathiesen, Brian Vad; Duic, Neven

    2011-01-01

    demand in the future, based on careful and rational energy planning. Different financial, legal and technological mechanisms can lead to significant savings in the households sector which also leads to lesser greenhouse gas emissions and lower Croatian dependence on foreign fossil fuels....... relevant. In order to plan future energy systems it is important to know future possibilities and needs regarding energy demand for different sectors. Through this paper long term energy demand projections for Croatian households sector will be shown with a special emphasis on different mechanisms, both...... financial, legal but also technological that will influence future energy demand scenarios. It is important to see how these mechanisms influence, positive or negative, on future energy demand and which mechanism would be most influential. Energy demand predictions in this paper are based upon bottom...

  8. Potentials for energy savings and long term energy demands for Croatian households sector

    Pukšec, Tomislav; Mathiesen, Brian Vad; Duic, Neven

    2013-01-01

    demand in the future, based on careful and rational energy planning. Different financial, legal and technological mechanisms can lead to significant savings in the households sector which also leads to lesser greenhouse gas emissions and lower Croatian dependence on foreign fossil fuels....... relevant. In order to plan future energy systems it is important to know future possibilities and needs regarding energy demand for different sectors. Through this paper long term energy demand projections for Croatian households sector will be shown with a special emphasis on different mechanisms, both...... financial, legal but also technological that will influence future energy demand scenarios. It is important to see how these mechanisms influence, positive or negative, on future energy demand and which mechanism would be most influential. Energy demand predictions in this paper are based upon bottom...

  9. The long-term Global LAnd Surface Satellite (GLASS) product suite and applications

    Liang, S.

    2015-12-01

    Our Earth's environment is experiencing rapid changes due to natural variability and human activities. To monitor, understand and predict environment changes to meet the economic, social and environmental needs, use of long-term high-quality satellite data products is critical. The Global LAnd Surface Satellite (GLASS) product suite, generated at Beijing Normal University, currently includes 12 products, including leaf area index (LAI), broadband shortwave albedo, broadband longwave emissivity, downwelling shortwave radiation and photosynthetically active radiation, land surface skin temperature, longwave net radiation, daytime all-wave net radiation, fraction of absorbed photosynetically active radiation absorbed by green vegetation (FAPAR), fraction of green vegetation coverage, gross primary productivity (GPP), and evapotranspiration (ET). Most products span from 1981-2014. The algorithms for producing these products have been published in the top remote sensing related journals and books. More and more applications have being reported in the scientific literature. The GLASS products are freely available at the Center for Global Change Data Processing and Analysis of Beijing Normal University (http://www.bnu-datacenter.com/), and the University of Maryland Global Land Cover Facility (http://glcf.umd.edu). After briefly introducing the basic characteristics of GLASS products, we will present some applications on the long-term environmental changes detected from GLASS products at both global and local scales. Detailed analysis of regional hotspots, such as Greenland, Tibetan plateau, and northern China, will be emphasized, where environmental changes have been mainly associated with climate warming, drought, land-atmosphere interactions, and human activities.

  10. Long-term effects on nursing alumni: Assessing a course in public and global health.

    Palmer, Sheri P; Lundberg, Karen; de la Cruz, Karen; Corbett, Cheryl; Heaston, Sondra; Reed, Shelly; Williams, Mary

    The impact of a cultural awareness course among nursing students may affect the particular person for years to come. Cultural awareness can be taught via many methods, often requiring study abroad and/or extreme investment of time, money and effort. There is little research on sustained effects on nursing alumni from such a course. The purpose of this descriptive survey study was to determine the long term outcomes of a cultural awareness course and 2) compare the long term effects between alumni who went abroad and those who chose to complete the course locally. One hundred and twenty-one nursing alumni completed the International Education Survey (IES) (Zorn, 1996) with additional open-ended questions. Quantitative and qualitative results concluded: 1) nursing alumni were influenced long term by a course dedicated to public and global health and 2) all alumni had statistically significant IES scores but alumni who studied abroad had the greatest increase. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Global estimation of long-term persistence in annual river runoff

    Markonis, Y.; Moustakis, Y.; Nasika, C.; Sychova, P.; Dimitriadis, P.; Hanel, M.; Máca, P.; Papalexiou, S. M.

    2018-03-01

    Long-term persistence (LTP) of annual river runoff is a topic of ongoing hydrological research, due to its implications to water resources management. Here, we estimate its strength, measured by the Hurst coefficient H, in 696 annual, globally distributed, streamflow records with at least 80 years of data. We use three estimation methods (maximum likelihood estimator, Whittle estimator and least squares variance) resulting in similar mean values of H close to 0.65. Subsequently, we explore potential factors influencing H by two linear (Spearman's rank correlation, multiple linear regression) and two non-linear (self-organizing maps, random forests) techniques. Catchment area is found to be crucial for medium to larger watersheds, while climatic controls, such as aridity index, have higher impact to smaller ones. Our findings indicate that long-term persistence is weaker than found in other studies, suggesting that enhanced LTP is encountered in large-catchment rivers, were the effect of spatial aggregation is more intense. However, we also show that the estimated values of H can be reproduced by a short-term persistence stochastic model such as an auto-regressive AR(1) process. A direct consequence is that some of the most common methods for the estimation of H coefficient, might not be suitable for discriminating short- and long-term persistence even in long observational records.

  12. An overview of Ontario's 2013 long term energy plan

    Jobe, C.

    2014-01-01

    Ontario's 2013 Long Term Energy /Plan (LTEP) takes a pragmatic approach. The plan is designed to balance the following five principles namely: Cost effectiveness, Reliability, Clean energy, Community engagement, and Emphasis on conservation and demand management before building new generation. By taking a pragmatic and flexible approach and balancing these principles, Ontario's 2013 Long Term Energy Plan builds on the foundation laid by the 2010 LTEP while also lowering the projected total system costs. The key elements of the 2013 LTEP are described in this paper by highlighting the major features of these elements. (author)

  13. Long-term scenarios of energy use and carbon emissions: Summary of results

    Sathaye, J.

    1991-01-01

    Energy use in developing countries has risen more quickly than in the industrialized world, with a consequent increase in the developing world's share in global modern energy use from 16% in 1970 to 24% in 1987. As a result, while the developing countries' share of carbon dioxide emissions is small today, it is growing rapidly. The following is a brief summary of the aggregate results derived from the work on long-term energy and carbon emissions scenarios for China, India, Indonesia, Korea, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Venezuela, Nigeria, Ghana, Sierra Leone and the sic members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). The countries experience varying rates of population growth between 1985 and 2025. The fastest growth rates occur in Africa - particularly in Nigeria and Ghana - and in the GCC. In Korea and China, where the governments have implemented policies to control the expansion of the population, the growth rates remain significantly lower. The economic growth rates correspond with national projections and/or expert judgment. GDP shows a wide variance across the study countries; and in each country distinct factors account for the differences in rates of growth. Argentina, for example, experiences a relatively slow increase in GDP as the foundation of its economy moves away from manufacturing and towards agriculture-based industry. In contrast, Korea's development of its less energy-intensive industries continues to fuel high rates of economic growth between 1985 and 2025

  14. Analysis of Long-term Energy and Carbon Emission Scenarios for India

    Rajesh, N.; Kapshe, M.; Shukla, P.R.; Garg, A.; Rana, A.

    2003-01-01

    In the coming years India faces great challenges in energy and environment. The path of development chosen by India, upon which lies the future growth of energy and emission trajectories, would be greatly influenced by technological developments both within and outside the country, economic cooperation between countries, and global cooperation in limiting greenhouse gas emissions. This paper discusses the integrated modeling system used for developing and analyzing the long-term trajectories and presents results for the scenarios developed. In the context of ongoing market reforms two scenarios - accelerated and decelerated reforms - are developed depicting fast and slow progress in energy sector reforms compared to expectations in the baseline scenario. Accelerated market reforms would spur improvements in technological efficiencies. Reforms would lower investment risks in India, thereby stimulating increased levels of foreign direct investment. On the other hand in decelerated reform scenario economic growth is lower than that in the base case, there is low access to capital, and technological improvements lag behind those in the base case. In another scenario we assume specific policy interventions for penetration of renewable technologies over the baseline scenario, for promotion and accelerated deployment of renewable energy technologies over and above the baseline assumptions. A scenario with carbon (c) constraints has also been developed and the results discussed

  15. Energy development and environment: What about solar energy in a long term perspective?

    Dessus, Benjamin; Pharabod, Francois

    After decades of strong growth, the next century might be that in which the world population is stabilized around 11 billion inhabitants. Next century's main concerns include the development hoped for the probable consequences of an increase of the greenhouse effect due to main induced emissions, and the risks posed by possible dissemination of nuclear energy to all the regions of the globe. In order to shed some light on these questions, we propose an energy scenario, based on an analysis of evolution of demographics, energy needs, renewable and fossil reserves, environmental issues, technological possibilities and regional imbalances. This scenario shows that solar energy could contribute significantly in the long term energy mix. We discuss the respective advantages and drawbacks of the different solar technologies: solar power satellites, ground solar power plants and decentralized applications, as they to the needs that must be satisfied.

  16. Implications of renewable energy technologies in the Bangladesh power sector. Long-term planning strategies

    Mondal, Alam Hossain

    2010-10-04

    Bangladesh is facing daunting energy challenges: Security concerns over growing fuel imports, limited domestic energy resources for power generation, and projected demands for electricity that will exceed domestic supply capabilities within a few years. By acknowledging the potential of renewable energy resources, the country could possibly meet its unprecedented energy demand, thus increasing electricity accessibility for all and enhancing energy security through their advancement. The integration of renewable energy technologies in the power sector through national energy planning would, therefore, be a step in the right direction, not only for sustainable development of the country but also as part of Bangladesh's responsibility toward the global common task of environmental protection. This study estimates the potential of renewable energy sources for power generation in Bangladesh from the viewpoint of different promising available technologies. Future long-term electricity demand in Bangladesh is projected based on three economic growth scenarios. The energy planning model LEAP is applied to forecast the energy requirements from 2005 to 2035. Different policy scenarios, e.g., accelerated renewable energy production, null coal import, CO2 emission reduction targets and carbon taxes in the power sector from 2005 to 2035 are explored. The analyses are based on a long-term energy system model of Bangladesh using the MARKAL model. Prospects for the power sector development of the country are identified, which ensure energy security and mitigate environmental impacts. The technical potential of grid-connected solar photovoltaic and wind energy are estimated at 50174 MW and 4614 MW, respectively. The potential of energy from biomass and small hydro power plants is estimated at 566 MW and 125 MW, respectively. Total electricity consumption was 18 TWh in 2005 and is projected to increase about 7 times to 132 TWh by 2035 in the low GDP growth scenario. In the

  17. Energy globalization

    Tierno Andres

    1997-01-01

    Toward the future, the petroleum could stop to be the main energy source in the world and the oil companies will only survive if they are adjusted to the new winds that blow in the general energy sector. It will no longer be enough to be the owner of the resource (petroleum or gas) so that a company subsists and be profitable in the long term. The future, it will depend in great measure of the vision with which the oil companies face the globalization concept that begins to experience the world in the energy sector. Concepts like globalization, competition, integration and diversification is something that the companies of the hydrocarbons sector will have very present. Globalization means that it should be been attentive to what happens in the world, beyond of the limits of its territory, or to be caught by competitive surprises that can originate in very distant places. The search of cleaner and friendlier energy sources with the means it is not the only threat that it should fear the petroleum. Their substitution for electricity in the big projects of massive transport, the technology of the communications, the optic fiber and the same relationships with the aboriginal communities are aspects that also compete with the future of the petroleum

  18. Neutron balance as indicator of long-term resource availability in growing nuclear energy system

    Blandinskiy, Victor [National Research Centre ' ' Kurchatov Institute' ' , Moscow (Russian Federation)

    2017-09-15

    The article describes neutron balance in nuclear energy system as necessary but not sufficient indicator of long-term sustainability. Three models are introduced to evaluate neutron balance based on nuclide chain evolution and reaction rates comparison. The indicator introduced is used to compare several nuclear energy systems consisting of thermal, fast and molten salt reactors.

  19. Perspective of long term demand and supply of energy and general inspection of energy policy

    1983-01-01

    Since the oil crisis, Japanese energy policy was promoted to get rid of the excess dependence on petroleum and to attain energy security, but energy situation largely changed during the past ten years, and it has become necessary to make general inspection on the long term demand and supply of energy and the energy policy. After the second oil crisis, the worldwide demand of petroleum decreased drastically due to the rapid price rise, and the base price of crude oil was lowered for the first time. It is necessary to positively endeavor to reduce energy cost with new idea. The points of the general inspection are the correspondence of the energy policy to the large structural change of energy, the most desirable system for attaining the optimum structure of energy demand and supply and the utilization of market mechanism as far as possible. This report is the results of discussion held eight times since April, 1983. The change of energy situation in Japan and abroad and the perspective, the new problems in energy countermeasures and the trend of response, the preferential and effective promotion of general energy countermeasures and so on are reported. This report shows the fundamental direction of energy countermeasures hereafter, and the concrete and special examination must be made on many remaining problems. (Kako, I.)

  20. Energy Policy and Long Term Energy Demand in Croatian Households Sector

    Puksec, T.; Duic, N.

    2011-01-01

    Households sector in Croatia represents one of the largest consumers of energy today with around 75,75PJ, which is almost 29% of Croatia's final energy demand. Considering this consumption, implementing different mechanisms that would lead to improvements in energy efficiency in this sector seems relevant. In order to plan future energy systems it is important to know future possibilities and needs regarding energy demand for different sectors. Through this paper long term energy demand projections for Croatian households sector will be shown with a special emphasis on different mechanisms, both financial, legal but also technological that will influence future energy demand scenarios. It is important to see how these mechanisms influence, positive or negative, on future energy demand and which mechanism would be most influential. Energy demand predictions in this paper are based upon bottom-up approach model which combines and process large number of input data. The Model will be compared to Croatian national Energy Strategy and certain difference will be presented. One of the major conclusions shown in this paper is significant possibilities for energy efficiency improvements and lower energy demand in the future, based on careful and rational energy planning. Different financial, legal and technological mechanisms can lead to significant savings in the households sector which also leads to lesser greenhouse gas emissions and lower Croatian dependence on foreign fossil fuels. (author)

  1. The global historical climatology network: Long-term monthly temperature, precipitation, and pressure data

    Vose, R.S.; Schmoyer, R.L.; Peterson, T.C.; Steurer, P.M.; Heim, R.R. Jr.; Karl, T.R.; Eischeid, J.K.

    1992-01-01

    Interest in global climate change has risen dramatically during the past several decades. In a similar fashion, the number of data sets available to study global change has also increased. Unfortunately, many different organizations and researchers have compiled these data sets, making it confusing and time consuming for individuals to acquire the most comprehensive data. In response to this rapid growth in the number of global data sets, DOE's Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) and NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) established the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) project. The purpose of this project is to compile an improved data set of long-term monthly mean temperature, precipitation, sea level pressure, and station pressure for as dense a network of global stations as possible. Specifically, the GHCN project seeks to consolidate the numerous preexisting national-, regional-, and global-scale data sets into a single global data base; to subject the data to rigorous quality control; and to update, enhance, and distribute the data set at regular intervals. The purpose of this paper is to describe the compilation and contents of the GHCN data base (i.e., GHCN Version 1.0)

  2. Post-Kyoto policy implications on the energy system: A TIAM-FR long-term planning exercise

    Selosse, Sandrine; Assoumou, Edi; Maizi, Nadia; Mazauric, Vincent

    2010-09-15

    The aim of this study is to discuss the long term analysis of post-Kyoto commitments, with the modelling tool ETSAP-TIAM-FR. Through the specification of CO2 mitigation targets scenarios covering the period 2000-2050, this analysis focuses on the effects of these carbon constraints on several indicators such as global and regional CO2 emissions, the cost of the climate policy, carbon marginal costs, the primary energy consumption and the energy mix. This paper compares global efforts of CO2 mitigation with the cost of carbon and finally discusses the development of CCS technologies.

  3. Alterations to global but not local motion processing in long-term ecstasy (MDMA) users.

    White, Claire; Brown, John; Edwards, Mark

    2014-07-01

    Growing evidence indicates that the main psychoactive ingredient in the illegal drug "ecstasy" (methylendioxymethamphetamine) causes reduced activity in the serotonin and gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA) systems in humans. On the basis of substantial serotonin input to the occipital lobe, recent research investigated visual processing in long-term users and found a larger magnitude of the tilt aftereffect, interpreted to reflect broadened orientation tuning bandwidths. Further research found higher orientation discrimination thresholds and reduced long-range interactions in the primary visual area of ecstasy users. The aim of the present research was to investigate whether serotonin-mediated V1 visual processing deficits in ecstasy users extend to motion processing mechanisms. Forty-five participants (21 controls, 24 drug users) completed two psychophysical studies: A direction discrimination study directly measured local motion processing in V1, while a motion coherence task tested global motion processing in area V5/MT. "Primary" ecstasy users (n = 18), those without substantial polydrug use, had significantly lower global motion thresholds than controls [p = 0.027, Cohen's d = 0.78 (large)], indicating increased sensitivity to global motion stimuli, but no difference in local motion processing (p = 0.365). These results extend on previous research investigating the long-term effects of illicit drugs on visual processing. Two possible explanations are explored: defuse attentional processes may be facilitating spatial pooling of motion signals in users. Alternatively, it may be that a GABA-mediated disruption to V5/MT processing is reducing spatial suppression and therefore improving global motion perception in ecstasy users.

  4. Global assessment of surfing conditions: seasonal, interannual and long-term variability

    Espejo, A.; Losada, I.; Mendez, F.

    2012-12-01

    International surfing destinations owe a great debt to specific combinations of wind-wave, thermal conditions and local bathymetry. As surf quality depends on a vast number of geophysical variables, a multivariable standardized index on the basis of expert judgment is proposed to analyze surf resource in a worldwide domain. Data needed is obtained by combining several datasets (reanalyses): 60-year satellite-calibrated spectral wave hindcast (GOW, WaveWatchIII), wind fields from NCEP/NCAR, global sea surface temperature from ERSST.v3b, and global tides from TPXO7.1. A summary of the global surf resource is presented, which highlights the high degree of variability in surfable events. According to general atmospheric circulation, results show that west facing low to middle latitude coasts are more suitable for surfing, especially those in Southern Hemisphere. Month to month analysis reveals strong seasonal changes in the occurrence of surfable events, enhancing those in North Atlantic or North Pacific. Interannual variability is investigated by comparing occurrence values with global and regional climate patterns showing a great influence at both, global and regional scales. Analysis of long term trends shows an increase in the probability of surfable events over the west facing coasts on the planet (i.e. + 30 hours/year in California). The resulting maps provide useful information for surfers and surf related stakeholders, coastal planning, education, and basic research.; Figure 1. Global distribution of medium quality (a) and high quality surf conditions probability (b).

  5. Long-term optimal energy mix planning towards high energy security and low GHG emission

    Thangavelu, Sundar Raj; Khambadkone, Ashwin M.; Karimi, Iftekhar A.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • We develop long-term energy planning considering the future uncertain inputs. • We analyze the effect of uncertain inputs on the energy cost and energy security. • Conventional energy mix prone to cause high energy cost and energy security issues. • Stochastic and optimal energy mix show benefits over conventional energy planning. • Nuclear option consideration reduces the energy cost and carbon emissions. - Abstract: Conventional energy planning focused on energy cost, GHG emission and renewable contribution based on future energy demand, fuel price, etc. Uncertainty in the projected variables such as energy demand, volatile fuel price and evolution of renewable technologies will influence the cost of energy when projected over a period of 15–30 years. Inaccurate projected variables could affect energy security and lead to the risk of high energy cost, high emission and low energy security. The energy security is an ability of generation capacity to meet the future energy demand. In order to minimize the risks, a generic methodology is presented to determine an optimal energy mix for a period of around 15 years. The proposed optimal energy mix is a right combination of energy sources that minimize the risk caused due to future uncertainties related to the energy sources. The proposed methodology uses stochastic optimization to address future uncertainties over a planning horizon and minimize the variations in the desired performance criteria such as energy security and costs. The developed methodology is validated using a case study for a South East Asian region with diverse fuel sources consists of wind, solar, geothermal, coal, biomass and natural gas, etc. The derived optimal energy mix decision outperformed the conventional energy planning by remaining stable and feasible against 79% of future energy demand scenarios at the expense of 0–10% increase in the energy cost. Including the nuclear option in the energy mix resulted 26

  6. The role of nuclear energy for Korean long-term energy supply strategy : application of energy demand-supply model

    Chae, Kyu Nam

    1995-02-01

    An energy demand and supply analysis is carried out to establish the future nuclear energy system of Korea in the situation of environmental restriction and resource depletion. Based on the useful energy intensity concept, a long-term energy demand forecasting model FIN2USE is developed to integrate with a supply model. The energy supply optimization model MESSAGE is improved to evaluate the role of nuclear energy system in Korean long-term energy supply strategy. Long-term demand for useful energy used as an exogeneous input of the energy supply model is derived from the trend of useful energy intensity by sectors and energy carriers. Supply-side optimization is performed for the overall energy system linked with the reactor and nuclear fuel cycle strategy. The limitation of fossil fuel resources and the CO 2 emission constraints are reflected as determinants of the future energy system. As a result of optimization of energy system using linear programming with the objective of total discounted system cost, the optimal energy system is obtained with detailed results on the nuclear sector for various scenarios. It is shown that the relative importance of nuclear energy would increase especially in the cases of CO 2 emission constraint. It is concluded that nuclear reactor strategy and fuel cycle strategy should be incorporated with national energy strategy and be changed according to environmental restriction and energy demand scenarios. It is shown that this modelling approach is suitable for a decision support system of nuclear energy policy

  7. Proposal of a molten-salt system for long-term energy production

    Berthou, V.; Slessarev, I.; Salvatores, M.

    2002-01-01

    Within the framework of nuclear waste management studies, the 'ose-composent' concept is considered to be an attractive option for the long-term perspective. This paper proposes a new system called TASSE ('Thorium-based Accelerator-drives System with Simplified fuel cycle for long-term Energy production') destined for the current French park renewal. The main idea of the TASSE concept is to simplify both the front end and the back end of the fuel cycle. Its major goal is to provide electricity with low waste production and economical competitiveness. (author)

  8. Globally Increased Crop Growth and Cropping Intensity from the Long-Term Satellite-Based Observations

    Chen, Bin

    2018-04-01

    Understanding the spatiotemporal change trend of global crop growth and multiple cropping system under climate change scenarios is a critical requirement for supporting the food security issue that maintains the function of human society. Many studies have predicted the effects of climate changes on crop production using a combination of filed studies and models, but there has been limited evidence relating decadal-scale climate change to global crop growth and the spatiotemporal distribution of multiple cropping system. Using long-term satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and observed climate data from 1982 to 2012, we investigated the crop growth trend, spatiotemporal pattern trend of agricultural cropping intensity, and their potential correlations with respect to the climate change drivers at a global scale. Results show that 82.97 % of global cropland maximum NDVI witnesses an increased trend while 17.03 % of that shows a decreased trend over the past three decades. The spatial distribution of multiple cropping system is observed to expand from lower latitude to higher latitude, and the increased cropping intensity is also witnessed globally. In terms of regional major crop zones, results show that all nine selected zones have an obvious upward trend of crop maximum NDVI (p impact on the crop growth trend.

  9. GLOBALLY INCREASED CROP GROWTH AND CROPPING INTENSITY FROM THE LONG-TERM SATELLITE-BASED OBSERVATIONS

    B. Chen

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the spatiotemporal change trend of global crop growth and multiple cropping system under climate change scenarios is a critical requirement for supporting the food security issue that maintains the function of human society. Many studies have predicted the effects of climate changes on crop production using a combination of filed studies and models, but there has been limited evidence relating decadal-scale climate change to global crop growth and the spatiotemporal distribution of multiple cropping system. Using long-term satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI and observed climate data from 1982 to 2012, we investigated the crop growth trend, spatiotemporal pattern trend of agricultural cropping intensity, and their potential correlations with respect to the climate change drivers at a global scale. Results show that 82.97 % of global cropland maximum NDVI witnesses an increased trend while 17.03 % of that shows a decreased trend over the past three decades. The spatial distribution of multiple cropping system is observed to expand from lower latitude to higher latitude, and the increased cropping intensity is also witnessed globally. In terms of regional major crop zones, results show that all nine selected zones have an obvious upward trend of crop maximum NDVI (p < 0.001, and as for climatic drivers, the gradual temperature and precipitation changes have had a measurable impact on the crop growth trend.

  10. The relationship of long term global temperature change and human fertility.

    Fisch, Harry; Andrews, Howard F; Fisch, Karen S; Golden, Robert; Liberson, Gary; Olsson, Carl A

    2003-07-01

    According to the United Nations, global fertility has declined in the last century as reflected by a decline in birth rates. The earth's surface air temperature has increased considerably and is referred to as global warming. Since changes in temperature are well known to influence fertility we sought to determine if a statistical relationship exists between long-term changes in global air temperatures and birth rates. The most complete and reliable birth rate data in the 20th century was available in 19 industrialized countries. Using bivariate and multiple regression analysis, we compared yearly birth rates from these countries to global air temperatures from 1900 to 1994.A common pattern of change in birth rates was noted for the 19 industrialized countries studied. In general, birth rates declined markedly throughout the century except during the baby boom period of approximately 1940 to 1964. An inverse relationship was found between changes in global temperatures and birth rates in all 19 countries. Controlling for the linear yearly decline in birth rates over time, this relationship remained statistically significant for all the 19 countries in aggregate and in seven countries individually (phuman fertility may have been influenced by change in environmental temperatures.

  11. A Systematic Review of Global Publication Trends Regarding Long-Term Outcomes of ADHD

    Hodgkins, Paul; Arnold, L. Eugene; Shaw, Monica; Caci, Hervé; Kahle, Jennifer; Woods, Alisa G; Young, Susan

    2012-01-01

    There is increased global recognition of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) as a serious medical condition with long-term consequences. Although originally conceived of as a childhood disorder, ADHD is being increasingly recognized in adults. Individual geographic regions may have specific interests and objectives for the study of ADHD. A systematic review of long-term outcomes (LTOs) in ADHD was conducted to evaluate research on ADHD LTOs on a global scale. Studies that were at least 2 years in duration were examined. A total of 351 studies were identified in the final analysis. We identified nine outcomes of interest and classified studies by specific geographical regions, age groups studied and study design by region and over time. Published studies of LTOs in ADHD have increased in all geographical regions over the past three decades, with a peak number of 42 publications in 2008. This rise in publications on ADHD LTOs may reflect a rise in global interest and recognition of consequences and impairment associated with ADHD. Although many world regions have published on ADHD LTOs, the majority of studies have emerged from the US and Canada, followed by Europe. While investigators in the US and Canada were predominantly interested in drug addiction as a LTO, European researchers were more interested in antisocial behavior, and Eastern Asian investigators focused on both of these LTOs as well as self-esteem. Geographical differences in the focus of ADHD LTO studies may reflect regional variations in cultural values. Proportionally fewer prospective longitudinal studies and proportionally more retrospective and cross-sectional studies have been published in more recent decades. Finally, more studies focusing on ADHD in adolescents and adults have been conducted in recent years, and particularly adolescents in Eastern Asia. These changes in basic study design may reflect an increase in the recognition that ADHD is a lifetime chronic disorder. This

  12. A systematic review of global publication trends regarding long-term outcomes of ADHD.

    Hodgkins, Paul; Arnold, L Eugene; Shaw, Monica; Caci, Hervé; Kahle, Jennifer; Woods, Alisa G; Young, Susan

    2011-01-01

    There is increased global recognition of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) as a serious medical condition with long-term consequences. Although originally conceived of as a childhood disorder, ADHD is being increasingly recognized in adults. Individual geographic regions may have specific interests and objectives for the study of ADHD. A systematic review of long-term outcomes (LTOs) in ADHD was conducted to evaluate research on ADHD LTOs on a global scale. Studies that were at least 2 years in duration were examined. A total of 351 studies were identified in the final analysis. We identified nine outcomes of interest and classified studies by specific geographical regions, age groups studied and study design by region and over time. Published studies of LTOs in ADHD have increased in all geographical regions over the past three decades, with a peak number of 42 publications in 2008. This rise in publications on ADHD LTOs may reflect a rise in global interest and recognition of consequences and impairment associated with ADHD. Although many world regions have published on ADHD LTOs, the majority of studies have emerged from the US and Canada, followed by Europe. While investigators in the US and Canada were predominantly interested in drug addiction as a LTO, European researchers were more interested in antisocial behavior, and Eastern Asian investigators focused on both of these LTOs as well as self-esteem. Geographical differences in the focus of ADHD LTO studies may reflect regional variations in cultural values. Proportionally fewer prospective longitudinal studies and proportionally more retrospective and cross-sectional studies have been published in more recent decades. Finally, more studies focusing on ADHD in adolescents and adults have been conducted in recent years, and particularly adolescents in Eastern Asia. These changes in basic study design may reflect an increase in the recognition that ADHD is a lifetime chronic disorder. This

  13. Communication on energy: who pays for the long-term costs of nuclear power

    Jeffery, J.W.

    1987-01-01

    The question in the title arises in making a fair comparison between a coal-fired station, which has no long-term costs, and a nuclear station, whose large long-term costs are discounted into insignificance by the present method of calculation. This problem was raised by the present author in his evidence to the Sizewell Inquiry, and has recently been discussed by the House of Commons Select Committee on Energy, who expressed grave disquiet that 'the costs of decommissioning become almost irrelevant to the current economics of nuclear power'. The present article analyses the bizarre effects of long-term discounting, and suggests a method of making a fair and symmetrical comparison between coal-fired and nuclear stations. (author)

  14. Energy Systems Scenario Modelling and Long Term Forecasting of Hourly Electricity Demand

    Alberg Østergaard, Poul; Møller Andersen, Frits; Kwon, Pil Seok

    2015-01-01

    . The results show that even with a limited short term electric car fleet, these will have a significant effect on the energy system; the energy system’s ability to integrate wind power and the demand for condensing power generation capacity in the system. Charging patterns and flexibility have significant...... or inflexible electric vehicles and individual heat pumps, and in the long term it is investigated what the effects of changes in the load profiles due to changing weights of demand sectors are. The analyses are based on energy systems simulations using EnergyPLAN and demand forecasting using the Helena model...... effects on this. Likewise, individual heat pumps may affect the system operation if they are equipped with heat storages. The analyses also show that the long term changes in electricity demand curve profiles have little impact on the energy system performance. The flexibility given by heat pumps...

  15. Macro-economic and energy scenarios for Japan through the long-term

    Mankin, Shuichi

    1986-03-01

    As one of studies and systems analyses on the role of VHTR and process heat utilization in future energy systems, long-term macro economic and energy scenarios of Japan until the year 2030 have been generated. This paper presents,; 1) the outline of the long-term macro econometric model and the energy system dynamics model by which these scenarios were generated, 2) back grounds and prospects on future societies of Japan and exogeneous assumptions for calculations, and 3) macro energy and economic scenarios generated. Reflecting the present economic prospects, these scenarios are seemed to be of extremely low-growth type, however, the role of VHTR and its energy systems could be prospected clealy to play a large and important role within these scenario regions. Basic philosophies of scenario generations are also mentioned in this paper. (author)

  16. Evaluating temporal consistency of long-term global NDVI datasets for trend analysis

    Tian, Feng; Fensholt, Rasmus; Verbesselt, Jan

    2015-01-01

    -sensor NDVI time series by analyzing the co-occurrence between breaks in the NDVI time series and sensor shifts from GIMMS3g (Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies 3rd generation), VIP3 (Vegetation Index and Phenology version 3), LTDR4 (Long Term Data Record version 4) and SPOT-VGT (Système Pour l......, potentially introducing uncertainties in NDVI trend analysis. Platform/sensor change from VGT-1 to VGT-2 is found to cause a significant positive break in the SPOT-VGT NDVI time series. Potential artifacts exist in humid, dry-subhumid, semi-arid and hyper-arid regions of GIMMS3g NDVI, whereas no signs...

  17. Geochemical constraints on sustainable development: Can an advanced global economy achieve long-term stability?

    Pickard, William F.

    2008-04-01

    The eighty-one stable chemical elements are examined individually with respect to (i) recent annual demand and (ii) worst case long-term availability in a distant future in which they must be extracted from the background sources of air, seawater, and ordinary rock. It is shown that, if a conventional use scenario is envisioned, the supplies of ruthenium, rhodium, palladium, tellurium, rhenium, osmium, iridium, platinum, gold, and especially phosphorus will be questionable while the supplies of copper, zinc, molybdenum, silver, cadmium, tin, antimony, tungsten, mercury, lead, and bismuth will be inadequate. It is therefore concluded that, in the long run, only the promotion of massive recycling and substitution technologies will suffice to maintain the global industrial society now developing.

  18. A long-term, integrated impact assessment of alternative building energy code scenarios in China

    Yu, Sha; Eom, Jiyong; Evans, Meredydd; Clarke, Leon

    2014-01-01

    China is the second largest building energy user in the world, ranking first and third in residential and commercial energy consumption. Beginning in the early 1980s, the Chinese government has developed a variety of building energy codes to improve building energy efficiency and reduce total energy demand. This paper studies the impact of building energy codes on energy use and CO 2 emissions by using a detailed building energy model that represents four distinct climate zones each with three building types, nested in a long-term integrated assessment framework GCAM. An advanced building stock module, coupled with the building energy model, is developed to reflect the characteristics of future building stock and its interaction with the development of building energy codes in China. This paper also evaluates the impacts of building codes on building energy demand in the presence of economy-wide carbon policy. We find that building energy codes would reduce Chinese building energy use by 13–22% depending on building code scenarios, with a similar effect preserved even under the carbon policy. The impact of building energy codes shows regional and sectoral variation due to regionally differentiated responses of heating and cooling services to shell efficiency improvement. - Highlights: • We assessed long-term impacts of building codes and climate policy using GCAM. • Building energy codes would reduce Chinese building energy use by 13–22%. • The impacts of codes on building energy use vary by climate region and sub-sector

  19. A systematic review of long-term outcomes in ADHD: global publication trends

    Paul eHodgkins

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available There is increased global recognition of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD as a serious medical condition with long-term consequences. Although originally conceived of as a childhood disorder, ADHD is being increasingly recognized in adults. Individual geographic regions may have specific interests and objectives for the study of ADHD. A systematic review of long-term outcomes (LTOs in ADHD was conducted to evaluate research on ADHD LTOs on a global scale. Studies that were at least two years in duration were examined. We identified nine outcomes of interest and classified studies by specific geographical regions, age groups studied and study design by region and over time. Published studies of LTOs in ADHD have increased in all geographical regions over the past three decades, with a peak number of publications in 2008. Although many world regions have published on ADHD LTOs, the majority of studies have emerged from the US and Canada, followed by Europe. While investigators in the US and Canada were predominantly interested in drug addiction as a LTO, European researchers were more interested in antisocial behavior, and Eastern Asian investigators focused on both of these LTOs as well as self-esteem. Proportionally fewer prospective longitudinal studies and proportionally more retrospective and cross-sectional studies have been published in more recent decades. Finally, more studies focusing on ADHD in adolescents and adults have been conducted in recent years, and particularly adolescents in Eastern Asia. This systematic review analysis of publication trends in ADHD LTOs reflects geographically-based interests that change over time.

  20. Energy systems scenario modelling and long term forecasting of hourly electricity demand

    Poul Alberg Østergaard

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The Danish energy system is undergoing a transition from a system based on storable fossil fuels to a system based on fluctuating renewable energy sources. At the same time, more of and more of the energy system is becoming electrified; transportation, heating and fuel usage in industry and elsewhere. This article investigates the development of the Danish energy system in a medium year 2030 situation as well as in a long-term year 2050 situation. The analyses are based on scenario development by the Danish Climate Commission. In the short term, it is investigated what the effects will be of having flexible or inflexible electric vehicles and individual heat pumps, and in the long term it is investigated what the effects of changes in the load profiles due to changing weights of demand sectors are. The analyses are based on energy systems simulations using EnergyPLAN and demand forecasting using the Helena model. The results show that even with a limited short-term electric car fleet, these will have a significant effect on the energy system; the energy system’s ability to integrated wind power and the demand for condensing power generation capacity in the system. Charging patterns and flexibility have significant effects on this. Likewise, individual heat pumps may affect the system operation if they are equipped with heat storages. The analyses also show that the long-term changes in electricity demand curve profiles have little impact on the energy system performance. The flexibility given by heat pumps and electric vehicles in the long-term future overshadows any effects of changes in hourly demand curve profiles.

  1. Workshop on IAEA Tools for Nuclear Energy System Assessment for Long-Term Planning and Development

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of the workshop is to present to Member States tools and methods that are available from the IAEA in support of long-term energy planning and nuclear energy system assessments, both focusing on the sustainable development of nuclear energy. This includes tools devoted to energy system planning, indicators for sustainable energy development, the INPRO methodology for Nuclear Energy System Assessment (NESA) and tools for analysing nuclear fuel cycle material balance. The workshop also intends to obtain feedback from Member States on applying the tools, share experiences and lessons learned, and identify needs for IAEA support

  2. Long-Term Energy Trends – Where Will We Be in 2050?

    DIAZ-RAINEY, Ivan

    2009-01-01

    4TH ENERDAY CONFERENCE ON ENERGY ECONOMICS AND TECHNOLOGY, TU DRESDEN APRIL 3RD, 2009 The fourth gathering of the popular ENERDAY Conference was a one day event guided by the giddy-sounding theme of “LONG-TERM ENERGY TRENDS – WHERE WILL WE BE IN 2050?” The event attracted over 90 European experts in energy policy, energy technology and energy economics from academia, regulators, consultancies, and the energy industry itself. The event took place under the umbrella of TU Dres...

  3. Mexico's long-term energy outlook : results of a detailed energy supply and demand simulation

    Conzelmann, G.; Quintanilla, J.; Conde, L.A.; Fernandez, J.; Mar, E.; Martin del Campo, C.; Serrato, G.; Ortega, R.

    2006-01-01

    This article discussed the results of a bottom-up analysis of Mexico's energy markets which was conducted using an energy and power evaluation program. The program was used to develop energy market forecasts to the year 2025. In the first phase of the study, dynamic optimization software was used to determine the optimal, least-cost generation system expansion path to meet growing demand for electricity. A separate model was used to determine the optimal generating strategy of mixed hydro-thermal electric power systems. In phase 2, a nonlinear market-based approach was used to determine the energy supply and demand balance for the entire energy system, as well as the response of various segments of the energy system to changes in energy price and demand levels. Basic input parameters included information on the energy system structure; base-year energy statistics; and, technical and policy constraints. A total of 14 scenarios were modelled to examine variations in load growth, sensitivities to changes in projected fuel prices, variations in assumed natural gas availability, system reliability targets, and the potential for additional nuclear capacity. Forecasts for the entire energy system were then developed for 4 scenarios: (1) reference case; (2) limited gas scenario; (3) renewable energy; and (4) additional nuclear power generation capacity. Results of the study showed that Mexico's crude oil production is projected to increase annually by 1 per cent to 2025. Imports of petroleum products resulting from the country's rapidly growing transportation sector will increase. Demand for natural gas is expected to outpace projected domestic production. The long-term market outlook for Mexico's electricity industry shows a heavy reliance on natural gas-based generating technologies. It was concluded that alternative results for a constrained-gas scenario showed a substantial shift to coal-based generation and associated effects on the natural gas market. 4 refs., 26

  4. Greek long-term energy consumption prediction using artificial neural networks

    Ekonomou, L.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper artificial neural networks (ANN) are addressed in order the Greek long-term energy consumption to be predicted. The multilayer perceptron model (MLP) has been used for this purpose by testing several possible architectures in order to be selected the one with the best generalizing ability. Actual recorded input and output data that influence long-term energy consumption were used in the training, validation and testing process. The developed ANN model is used for the prediction of 2005-2008, 2010, 2012 and 2015 Greek energy consumption. The produced ANN results for years 2005-2008 were compared with the results produced by a linear regression method, a support vector machine method and with real energy consumption records showing a great accuracy. The proposed approach can be useful in the effective implementation of energy policies, since accurate predictions of energy consumption affect the capital investment, the environmental quality, the revenue analysis, the market research management, while conserve at the same time the supply security. Furthermore it constitutes an accurate tool for the Greek long-term energy consumption prediction problem, which up today has not been faced effectively.

  5. Long-term scenarios and strategies for the deployment of renewable energies in Germany

    Pregger, Thomas; Nitsch, Joachim; Naegler, Tobias

    2013-01-01

    The transformation of the energy supply in Germany (the “Energiewende”) as described in the German Federal government’s ‘Energy Concept’ (Energiekonzept, 2010) is based on a political consensus about long-term targets for energy efficiency and renewable energies. The aim of this article is to present a consistent scenario for this transformation process reflecting the long-term implementation of renewable energies and the possible future structure of the German energy system as a whole. Structural and economic effects of this development are derived and discussed. It summarizes results of scenario analyses done by the department of Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment of the German Aerospace Center as part of a three-year research project for the German Federal Ministry for the Environment. The underlying study provides a detailed data base reflecting a long-term roadmap for the energy system transformation in Germany. The scenarios show that the policy targets are consistent and can be achieved, if appropriate policy measures are to be implemented. The economic analysis shows the amount of investments and the strong market dynamics required for new generation technologies but also the huge economic benefits that can result from this development path in terms of fuel cost savings and lower fuel imports. - Highlights: • Long-term scenario for the German energy system according to the political targets. • Comparison of three variants with differing developments of the fleets of vehicles. • Analysis of economic effects: investments, generation and differential costs. • Importance of strategies in the sectors electricity, heat, and transportation. • Recommended measures for the successful implementation of the CO 2 reductions

  6. Long term impacts of nuclear energy: On which purpose do we try to evaluate them?

    Beutler, Didier

    1998-01-01

    The indicators and the time limits for evaluation of the long term impacts of nuclear energy depend on the purpose: assessing the total cost of electricity generation; comparing different nuclear strategies; responding to public acceptance concerns; elaborating and selecting the most sustainable energy systems. Indicators that can be used are: consumption of non renewable resources; concentrations in the environment; individual exposures; collective dose; potential radiotoxicity. For all of them predicted or conditional values can be applied

  7. Emulation of long-term changes in global climate: application to the late Pliocene and future

    N. S. Lord

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Multi-millennial transient simulations of climate changes have a range of important applications, such as for investigating key geologic events and transitions for which high-resolution palaeoenvironmental proxy data are available, or for projecting the long-term impacts of future climate evolution on the performance of geological repositories for the disposal of radioactive wastes. However, due to the high computational requirements of current fully coupled general circulation models (GCMs, long-term simulations can generally only be performed with less complex models and/or at lower spatial resolution. In this study, we present novel long-term continuous projections of climate evolution based on the output from GCMs, via the use of a statistical emulator. The emulator is calibrated using ensembles of GCM simulations, which have varying orbital configurations and atmospheric CO2 concentrations and enables a variety of investigations of long-term climate change to be conducted, which would not be possible with other modelling techniques on the same temporal and spatial scales. To illustrate the potential applications, we apply the emulator to the late Pliocene (by modelling surface air temperature – SAT, comparing its results with palaeo-proxy data for a number of global sites, and to the next 200 kyr (thousand years (by modelling SAT and precipitation. A range of CO2 scenarios are prescribed for each period. During the late Pliocene, we find that emulated SAT varies on an approximately precessional timescale, with evidence of increased obliquity response at times. A comparison of atmospheric CO2 concentration for this period, estimated using the proxy sea surface temperature (SST data from different sites and emulator results, finds that relatively similar CO2 concentrations are estimated based on sites at lower latitudes, whereas higher-latitude sites show larger discrepancies. In our second illustrative application, spanning the next

  8. A novel inclusion of intermittent generation resources in long term energy auctions

    Marambio, Rodrigo; Rudnick, Hugh

    2017-01-01

    Long term energy auctions are positioning as a valuable tool in order to attract new investments into power systems, especially in Latin American countries where emergent economies characteristics and their correspondent risks are usually present. Even though the focus of these auctions is the long term, there are short term issues involved which actual auction designs fail to include, resulting in an energy allocation that is not necessarily optimal for the system, a condition which becomes more evident in the presence of intermittent renewable technologies. A novel mechanism is formulated to obtain the optimal allocation in long term energy auctions, considering short term generation profiles from both intermittent and conventional base load technologies, and also their risk aversions. The proposed mechanism is developed and simulations are made for some scenarios in the Chilean power market, with different levels of renewable penetration. Significant cost savings are achieved for the final consumers in relation to energy purchases, in comparison with a mechanism that follows the demand profile. As more renewable intermittent capacity enters the power system it is evident the need for changes in the energy auctions allocation mechanisms, including elements to exploit the synergies among participants in the short term. - Highlights: • Risk management consideration in technology neutral auctions allocation. • Allocation mechanism in technology neutral auctions with intermittent technologies. • Renewable and conventional technologies energy auction offer curves. • Increase bid prices in auctions as a consequence of solar technology support.

  9. Variable Renewable Energy in Long-Term Planning Models: A Multi-Model Perspective

    Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Frew, Bethany [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sun, Yinong [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bistline, John [Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Knoxville, TN (United States); Blanford, Geoffrey [Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Knoxville, TN (United States); Young, David [Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Knoxville, TN (United States); Marcy, Cara [U.S. Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Namovicz, Chris [U.S. Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Edelman, Risa [US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States); Meroney, Bill [US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States); Sims, Ryan [US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States); Stenhouse, Jeb [US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States); Donohoo-Vallett, Paul [Dept. of Energy (DOE), Washington DC (United States)

    2017-11-01

    Long-term capacity expansion models of the U.S. electricity sector have long been used to inform electric sector stakeholders and decision-makers. With the recent surge in variable renewable energy (VRE) generators — primarily wind and solar photovoltaics — the need to appropriately represent VRE generators in these long-term models has increased. VRE generators are especially difficult to represent for a variety of reasons, including their variability, uncertainty, and spatial diversity. This report summarizes the analyses and model experiments that were conducted as part of two workshops on modeling VRE for national-scale capacity expansion models. It discusses the various methods for treating VRE among four modeling teams from the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The report reviews the findings from the two workshops and emphasizes the areas where there is still need for additional research and development on analysis tools to incorporate VRE into long-term planning and decision-making. This research is intended to inform the energy modeling community on the modeling of variable renewable resources, and is not intended to advocate for or against any particular energy technologies, resources, or policies.

  10. A review of 'long-term energy supply and demand outlook'

    Hoshino, Yuko; Hamagata, Sumio; Nagata, Yutaka

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we reviewed the 'Long-term Energy Supply and Demand Outlook' based on our original Japan's Economy and Energy Outlook toward 2030. 'The Long-term Energy Supply and Demand Outlook' was based on the following three basic policies: (1) Energy self-sufficiency rate in 2030 should be around 25 percent. (2) Electricity Costs in 2030 should be lower than the current level in 2013. (3) Emissions target of GHGs in 2030 should not be lower than that of EU and the US. Moreover, there were many assumptions or constraints, such as assumed economic growth rate consistent to the government's macro-economic policy and the share of renewable energy more than 20 percent. In order to satisfy the above mentioned conditions, an extraordinary energy saving should be implemented in the scenario. The assumed intensity of energy saving is as much as that after the two oil crises. We estimated the cost of that magnitude of energy saving based on our model simulation, which revealed that in order to achieve the energy saving target, the electricity price should be 80% higher than the business as usual case. In addition, we reviewed the long-term energy supply and demand scenarios of major developed countries such as the UK, the US, Italy, Germany and Australia. We found that most of the scenarios depend on a large scale of energy saving in order to achieve the GHG emissions reductions targets. The reality of those energy saving targets should be carefully re-examined under the low oil price environment. (author)

  11. Biochemical Mechanisms and Energy Strategies of Geobacter sulfurreducens for Long- Term Survival

    Helmus, R. A.; Liermann, L. J.; Brantley, S. L.; Tien, M.

    2008-12-01

    Numerous species of bacteria have been observed to exhibit a growth advantage in stationary phase (GASP) phenotype, indicating that microorganisms starved of an energy source may adapt to allow for long-term survival. Understanding how Geobacter sulfurreducens persists using various metal forms as energy sources and whether a GASP phenotype develops during long-term growth are important for efficient application of this bacterium to sites requiring engineered bioremediation of soluble metals. Thus, we investigated the growth kinetics and survival of G. sulfurreducens. The growth rate of G. sulfurreducens was highest when cultured with soluble iron and generally higher on iron oxide than manganese oxide, suggesting that soluble metal forms are more readily utilized as energy sources by G. sulfurreducens. By monitoring the abundance of G. sulfurreducens in batch cultures for >6 months, distinct growth, stationary, and prolonged starvation phases were observed and a cell density of 105- 106 cells/mL persisted under long-term starvation conditions. The outgrowth of an aged G. sulfurreducens strain co-cultured with a young strain was monitored as a measure of the existence of the GASP phenotype. As the strains aged, the rpoS gene was cloned and sequenced at different stages of growth to identify mutations corresponding to a growth advantage. The results of these studies provide insight into the use of various metal forms for growth by G. sulfurreducens and its ability to persist when starved of energy sources.

  12. Structural change of the economy, technological progress and long-term energy demand

    Klinge Jacobsen, H.

    2000-01-01

    The material included in the report is a collection of papers dealing with different issues related to the topics included in the title. Some of these papers have already either been published or presented at various conferences. Together with a general introduction, they constitute the author's PhD dissertation. The dissertation includes six papers and two shorter notes on different aspects of structural change of the economy and energy demand. Three different issues related to long-term energy demand are discussed: (1) the importance of technological change and its representation in energy-economy modelling, (2) an integration of two different modelling approaches, and (3) the effect on energy demand of structural changes exemplified by changes in the energy supply sector and in Danish trade patterns. The report highlights a few aspects of the interaction between structural economic changes and energy demand, but it does not intend to cover a wide range of issues related to these topics. In the introductory chapter some discussions and thoughts about issues not covered by the articles are brought forward. The introductory chapter includes an overview of possible relations between longterm energy demand and the economy, technical progress demography, social conditions and politics. The first two papers discuss the importance for projections of long-term energy demand of the way in which technological progress is modelled. These papers focus on energy-economy modelling. A paper dealing with two different approaches to energy demand modelling and the possible integration of these approaches in the Danish case follows next. The integrated Danish model, is then used for analysing different revenue recycling principles in relation to a CO 2 tax. The effect of subsidising biomass use is compared with recycling through corporate tax rates. Then a paper follows describing the structural change of a specific sector, namely the energy supply sector, and the implications for

  13. Evaluation of long-term global radiation measurements in Denmark and Sweden

    Skalík, Lukáš; Lulkovičová, Otília; Furbo, Simon

    The climate, especially global radiation is one of the key factors influencing the energy yield of solar energy systems. In connection with planning and optimization of energy efficient buildings and solar energy systems it is important to know the climate data of the area where the buildings...... of the atmosphere, increased duration of periods without clouds and/or combination of both these effects. Twenty years of measurements from a climate station in Lyngby, Denmark show that the global radiation increase is almost 3.5 kWh/m2 per year, corresponding to a growth of 7 % for the last 20 years. The global....../systems are located. This study is based on yearly and monthly values of global radiation based on measurements from a climate station placed on the roof of building 119 at Technical University of Denmark in Kgs. Lyngby, from different Danish climate stations runned by Danish Meteorological Institute and from...

  14. Long-term no-till and stover retention each decrease the global warming potential of irrigated continuous corn

    Over the last 50 years, the most increase in cultivated land area globally has been due to a doubling of irrigated land. Long-term agronomic management impacts on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks, soil greenhouse gas (GHG) emis-sions, and global warming potential (GWP) in irrigated systems, however,...

  15. Long-term program on research, development and application of atomic energy

    2000-01-01

    As the Committee of Atomic Energy in Japan has established eight times of the 'long-term basic program on development and application of atomic energy at every five years since 1956, these have consistently done every important roles as a leader of programmable promotion of policies on research, development and application of atomic energy in Japan. And, they also have showed some basic concepts on its research, development and application such as safety security, keeping of peaceful application, and so on, and also done a role as a strength with universality for promotion of their sure practices. Then, the Committee requested some surveys and discussions on establishment decided as a new long-term program on May, 1999, to a meeting on establishment of the long-term program, so as to clearly show a basic plan and its promoting measures on research, development and application of atomic energy to be adopted by Japan through the 21st Century under understanding of changes of various affairs after establishment of the previous program, to Japanese peoples, international society and nuclear relatives. The finished program is composed of two parts which are the first part of describing some messages toward Japanese peoples and society and international society and the second part of expressing concrete indications and promoting measures for practicing research, development and application of atomic energy. Here was shown on all sentences of the establishment containing the two parts of present condition and future way on research, development and application of atomic energy' and 'future evolution of research, development and application of atomic energy'. (G.K.)

  16. Statistical model of global uranium resources and long-term availability

    Monnet, A.; Gabriel, S.; Percebois, J.

    2016-01-01

    Most recent studies on the long-term supply of uranium make simplistic assumptions on the available resources and their production costs. Some consider the whole uranium quantities in the Earth's crust and then estimate the production costs based on the ore grade only, disregarding the size of ore bodies and the mining techniques. Other studies consider the resources reported by countries for a given cost category, disregarding undiscovered or unreported quantities. In both cases, the resource estimations are sorted following a cost merit order. In this paper, we describe a methodology based on 'geological environments'. It provides a more detailed resource estimation and it is more flexible regarding cost modelling. The global uranium resource estimation introduced in this paper results from the sum of independent resource estimations from different geological environments. A geological environment is defined by its own geographical boundaries, resource dispersion (average grade and size of ore bodies and their variance), and cost function. With this definition, uranium resources are considered within ore bodies. The deposit breakdown of resources is modelled using a bivariate statistical approach where size and grade are the two random variables. This makes resource estimates possible for individual projects. Adding up all geological environments provides a distribution of all Earth's crust resources in which ore bodies are sorted by size and grade. This subset-based estimation is convenient to model specific cost structures. (authors)

  17. An Integrated Modeling Approach for Forecasting Long-Term Energy Demand in Pakistan

    Syed Aziz Ur Rehman

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Energy planning and policy development require an in-depth assessment of energy resources and long-term demand forecast estimates. Pakistan, unfortunately, lacks reliable data on its energy resources as well do not have dependable long-term energy demand forecasts. As a result, the policy makers could not come up with an effective energy policy in the history of the country. Energy demand forecast has attained greatest ever attention in the perspective of growing population and diminishing fossil fuel resources. In this study, Pakistan’s energy demand forecast for electricity, natural gas, oil, coal and LPG across all the sectors of the economy have been undertaken. Three different energy demand forecasting methodologies, i.e., Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA, Holt-Winter and Long-range Energy Alternate Planning (LEAP model were used. The demand forecast estimates of each of these methods were compared using annual energy demand data. The results of this study suggest that ARIMA is more appropriate for energy demand forecasting for Pakistan compared to Holt-Winter model and LEAP model. It is estimated that industrial sector’s demand shall be highest in the year 2035 followed by transport and domestic sectors. The results further suggest that energy fuel mix will change considerably, such that oil will be the most highly consumed energy form (38.16% followed by natural gas (36.57%, electricity (16.22%, coal (7.52% and LPG (1.52% in 2035. In view of higher demand forecast of fossil fuels consumption, this study recommends that government should take the initiative for harnessing renewable energy resources for meeting future energy demand to not only avert huge import bill but also achieving energy security and sustainability in the long run.

  18. Role of thorium in ensuring long term energy security to India

    Malhotra, S.K.

    2013-01-01

    Role of nuclear power in ensuring energy security to the world is inevitable due to a) dwindling fossil fuel resources and b) need for minimising green house gas emission that poses the risk of global climate change. India, keeping in mind its limited uranium and vast thorium resources, is pursuing a three stage nuclear power programme. The first stage is based on reactors that use uranium as fuel. It comprises of the indigenous Pressurised Heavy Water Reactors using natural uranium as fuel and light water reactors that employ enriched uranium as fuel and are to be set up in technical collaboration with other countries. The second stage is based on fast breeder reactors that employ plutonium derived from reprocessing of spent fuel from the first stage reactors. The third stage envisages reactors which will employ thorium based fuel after its irradiation in the second stage reactors. This programme is sequential in nature and has an ultimate objective of securing long term energy security to India through judicial use of its thorium resources. Thorium based reactors offer advantages in terms of better neutronic characteristics of thorium, it being better fertile host for plutonium disposition and better thermo-mechanical properties and slower fuel deterioration of thorium oxide. It is planned to introduce thorium in the Indian Nuclear Power Programme after sufficient (about 200 GWe) capacity build-up in the second stage. DAE is a global leader in the development of the entire thorium fuel cycle. It has a mature technology for extraction of thorium and preparation of thoria pellets. It has long back carried out irradiation of thoria pellets in its research reactors and also in PHWRs, post irradiation examination and reprocessing of irradiated thoria, fabrication of 233 U based fuel. It has KAMINI - the world's only operating reactor employing 233 U as fuel. An Advanced Heavy Water Reactor (AHWR) has been designed as a technology demonstrator for large scale

  19. Long-term global distribution of earth's shortwave radiation budget at the top of atmosphere

    N. Hatzianastassiou

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The mean monthly shortwave (SW radiation budget at the top of atmosphere (TOA was computed on 2.5° longitude-latitude resolution for the 14-year period from 1984 to 1997, using a radiative transfer model with long-term climatological data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP-D2 supplemented by data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction – National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR Global Reanalysis project, and other global data bases such as TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS and Global Aerosol Data Set (GADS. The model radiative fluxes at TOA were validated against Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE S4 scanner satellite data (1985–1989. The model is able to predict the seasonal and geographical variation of SW TOA fluxes. On a mean annual and global basis, the model is in very good agreement with ERBE, overestimating the outgoing SW radiation at TOA (OSR by 0.93 Wm-2 (or by 0.92%, within the ERBE uncertainties. At pixel level, the OSR differences between model and ERBE are mostly within ±10 Wm-2, with ±5 Wm-2 over extended regions, while there exist some geographic areas with differences of up to 40 Wm-2, associated with uncertainties in cloud properties and surface albedo. The 14-year average model results give a planetary albedo equal to 29.6% and a TOA OSR flux of 101.2 Wm-2. A significant linearly decreasing trend in OSR and planetary albedo was found, equal to 2.3 Wm-2 and 0.6% (in absolute values, respectively, over the 14-year period (from January 1984 to December 1997, indicating an increasing solar planetary warming. This planetary SW radiative heating occurs in the tropical and sub-tropical areas (20° S–20° N, with clouds being the most likely cause. The computed global mean OSR anomaly ranges within ±4 Wm-2, with signals from El Niño and La Niña events or Pinatubo eruption, whereas significant negative OSR anomalies, starting from year 1992, are also

  20. Formulating an optimal long-term energy supply strategy for Syria using MESSAGE model

    Hainoun, A.; Seif Aldin, M.; Almoustafa, S.

    2010-01-01

    An optimal long-term energy supply strategy has been formulated based on minimizing the total system costs for the entire study period 2003-2030. The national energy chain was modelled covering all energy levels and conversion technologies. The results indicate that the primary energy will grow at annual average rate of 4.8% arriving 68 Mtoe in 2030. The total installed electric capacity will be optimally expanded from 6885 to 19500 MW in 2030. Furthermore, to ensure supply security the future national energy system will rely mainly upon oil and natural gas (NG) with limited contribution of renewables and nuclear to the end of study period. The share of NG will increase gradually up to 2020 and then retreat. Owing to the continuous decrease of oil production, oil export is expected to vanish in 2012 and the country will import about 63% of its primary energy demand in 2030. Thus, the expected long-term development of national energy sector indicates a hard challenge for the future national economy. The employing of sensitivity analysis clarifies the importance of wind turbines operation time and discount rate. The analysis proves that nuclear option is insensitive to overnight cost increase up to 85% of the reference case value.

  1. Emulation of long-term changes in global climate: Application to the late Pliocene and future

    Lord, Natalie S.

    2017-04-26

    Multi-millennial transient simulations of climate changes have a range of important applications, such as for investigating key geologic events and transitions for which high-resolution palaeoenvironmental proxy data are available, or for projecting the long-term impacts of future climate evolution on the performance of geological repositories for the disposal of radioactive wastes. However, due to the high computational requirements of current fully coupled general circulation models (GCMs), long-term simulations can generally only be performed with less complex models and/or at lower spatial resolution. In this study, we present novel long-term

  2. Emulation of long-term changes in global climate: application to the late Pliocene and future

    Lord, Natalie S.

    2017-11-16

    Multi-millennial transient simulations of climate changes have a range of important applications, such as for investigating key geologic events and transitions for which high-resolution palaeoenvironmental proxy data are available, or for projecting the long-term impacts of future climate evolution on the performance of geological repositories for the disposal of radioactive wastes. However, due to the high computational requirements of current fully coupled general circulation models (GCMs), long-term simulations can generally only be performed with less complex models and/or at lower spatial resolution. In this study, we present novel long-term

  3. Emulation of long-term changes in global climate: application to the late Pliocene and future

    Lord, Natalie S.; Crucifix, Michel; Lunt, Dan J.; Thorne, Mike C.; Bounceur, Nabila; Dowsett, Harry; O& apos; Brien, Charlotte L.; Ridgwell, Andy

    2017-01-01

    Multi-millennial transient simulations of climate changes have a range of important applications, such as for investigating key geologic events and transitions for which high-resolution palaeoenvironmental proxy data are available, or for projecting the long-term impacts of future climate evolution on the performance of geological repositories for the disposal of radioactive wastes. However, due to the high computational requirements of current fully coupled general circulation models (GCMs), long-term simulations can generally only be performed with less complex models and/or at lower spatial resolution. In this study, we present novel long-term

  4. Emulation of long-term changes in global climate: Application to the late Pliocene and future

    Lord, Natalie S.; Crucifix, Michel; Lunt, Dan J.; Thorne, Mike C.; Bounceur, Nabila; Dowsett, Harry; O& apos; Brien, Charlotte L.; Ridgwell, Andy

    2017-01-01

    Multi-millennial transient simulations of climate changes have a range of important applications, such as for investigating key geologic events and transitions for which high-resolution palaeoenvironmental proxy data are available, or for projecting the long-term impacts of future climate evolution on the performance of geological repositories for the disposal of radioactive wastes. However, due to the high computational requirements of current fully coupled general circulation models (GCMs), long-term simulations can generally only be performed with less complex models and/or at lower spatial resolution. In this study, we present novel long-term

  5. Assessing Smart Grids contribution to the energy transition with long-term scenarios

    Bouckaert, Stephanie

    2013-01-01

    In the context of discussions on the energy transition, the general consensus is that part of the solution could come from Smart Grids to deal both with climate and energy issues. Prospective energy systems models may be used to estimate the long-term development of the energy system in order to meet future energy demands while taking into account environmental and technical constraints. These historical models are demand driven and should from now on evolve to considerate future developments of the electricity system. In this study, we have implemented some functionalities related to the concept of Smart Grids in a long-term planning model (demand-side integration, storage, renewable energy). This approach makes it possible to evaluate their benefits separately or collectively, taking into account possible interactions between these functionalities. We have also implemented an indicator reflecting the level of reliability of the electricity system in our model. This additional parameter enables to constrain future electricity systems to ensure a level of reliability identical to the existing one. Our analysis is demonstrated by the case of the Reunion Island, which aims to produce electricity using 100% renewable sources by 2030, and for which Smart Grids functionalities are also potential solutions for reaching this objective. (author) [fr

  6. Long-term energy supply contracts in European competition policy: Fuzzy not crazy

    Hauteclocque, Adrien de; Glachant, Jean-Michel

    2009-01-01

    Long-term supply contracts often have ambiguous effects on the competitive structure, investment and consumer welfare in the long term. In the new market context, these effects are likely to be worsened and thus even harder to assess. Since liberalization and especially since the release of the Energy Sector Inquiry in early 2007, the portfolio of long-term supply contracts of the former incumbents have become a priority for review by the European Commission and the national competition authorities. It is widely believed that European Competition authorities take a dogmatic view on these contracts and systemically emphasize the risk of foreclosure over their positive effects on investment and operation. This paper depicts the methodology that has emerged in the recent line of cases and argues that this interpretation is largely misguided. It shows that a multiple-step approach is used to reduce regulation costs and balance anti-competitive effects with potential efficiency gains. However, if an economic approach is now clearly implemented, competition policy is constrained by the procedural aspect of the legal process and the remedies imposed remain open for discussion.

  7. Preliminary long-term stability criteria for compressed air energy storage caverns in salt domes

    Thoms, R.L.; Martinez, J.D.

    1978-08-01

    Air storage caverns, which are an essential and integral component of a CAES plant, should be designed and operated so as to perform satisfactorily over the intended life of the overall facility. It follows that the long-term ''stability'' of air storage caverns must be considered as a primary concern in projecting the satisfactory operation of CAES facilities. As used in the report, ''stability'' of a storage cavern implies the extent to which an acceptable amount of cavern storage volume can be utilized with routine maintenance for a specified time interval, e.g., 35 years. In this context, cavern stability is relative to both planned utilization and time interval of operation. The objective of the study was to review the existing literature and consult knowledgeable workers in the storage industry, and then report state-of-the-art findings relative to long-term stability of compressed air energy storage caverns in salt domes. Further, preliminary cavern stability criteria were to be presented in a form consistent with the amount of information available on cavern performance in salt domes. Another objective of the study was to outline a methodology for determining the long-term stability of site-specific CAES cavern systems in salt domes.

  8. The long-term forecast of Taiwan's energy supply and demand: LEAP model application

    Huang, Yophy; Bor, Yunchang Jeffrey; Peng, Chieh-Yu

    2011-01-01

    The long-term forecasting of energy supply and demand is an extremely important topic of fundamental research in Taiwan due to Taiwan's lack of natural resources, dependence on energy imports, and the nation's pursuit of sustainable development. In this article, we provide an overview of energy supply and demand in Taiwan, and a summary of the historical evolution and current status of its energy policies, as background to a description of the preparation and application of a Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model of Taiwan's energy sector. The Taiwan LEAP model is used to compare future energy demand and supply patterns, as well as greenhouse gas emissions, for several alternative scenarios of energy policy and energy sector evolution. Results of scenarios featuring 'business-as-usual' policies, aggressive energy-efficiency improvement policies, and on-schedule retirement of Taiwan's three existing nuclear plants are provided and compared, along with sensitivity cases exploring the impacts of lower economic growth assumptions. A concluding section provides an interpretation of the implications of model results for future energy and climate policies in Taiwan. - Research highlights: → The LEAP model is useful for international energy policy comparison. → Nuclear power plants have significant, positive impacts on CO 2 emission. → The most effective energy policy is to adopt demand-side management. → Reasonable energy pricing provides incentives for energy efficiency and conservation. → Financial crisis has less impact on energy demand than aggressive energy policy.

  9. The long-term relationships among China's energy consumption sources and adjustments to its renewable energy policy

    Zou Gaolu

    2012-01-01

    To reduce its consumption of coal and oil in its primary energy consumption, China promotes the development of renewable energy resources. I have analysed the long-term relationship among China's primary energy consumption sources. Changes in coal consumption lead those in the consumption of other energy sources in the long term. Coal and oil fuels substitute for each other equally. The long-term elasticities of China's coal consumption relative to its hydroelectricity consumption were greater than one and nearly equal during the two sample periods. Therefore, increased hydroelectricity consumption did not imply a reduction in coal consumption. China holds abundant hydroelectricity, wind and, solar energy potential. China must prevent an excessive escalation of its economy and resultant energy demand to realise a meaningful substitution of coal with hydroelectricity. Moreover, China must develop and use wind and solar energy sources. Natural gas can be a good substitute for coal, given its moderate price growth and affordable price levels. - Highlights: ► Coal consumption changes lead those of other energy sources in the long term. ► Coal and oil fuels substitute for each other equally. ► Increased hydroelectricity consumption has not meant lower coal consumption. ► Wind, solar and natural gas are China's promising energy sources.

  10. Energy Efficiency in Building as a Basic Prerequisite for a Long Term Energy Strategies Realization, Environmental Protection and Sustainability

    Miscevic, Lj.

    2006-01-01

    Energy efficiency in buildings at the low-energy and 'passive house' standard levels is presently the basic prerequisite for considering and formulating long term strategies, which with the task of meeting energy needs and system maintenance respond to requests of environmental protection and improvements in the context of sustainable development. Orientation to sustainable development is integrated in the development strategies of Croatia. The application of renewable energy sources, in particular solar energy in passive and active systems in the architecture is permanently confirmed by conducting energy monitoring and growing number of domestic studies, projects and realizations. The long-time research project of the European Union Cost Efficient Passive Houses as European Standards (CEPHEUS) with scientific monitoring corroborated energy and economic efficiency of such architectural designs in Germany, France, Austria, and Switzerland. Thus, the 'passive house' is proposed as a standard of residential architecture, but also of the construction of other functional types of architecture in general. The accomplished energy efficiency and verified favorable profitability of investment developed new forms of incentives to low-energy and passive architecture and relevant changes in concepts of long term energy strategies in the European Union member states. In Austria the 1000th passive house was built, and the city of Frankfurt/M brought decision regarding financing building construction through the city budget at the 'passive house' level. The new Technical Regulation on energy savings and thermal protection in Croatia, which is effectively in force as of 1 July, is a long-awaited step towards energy efficiency. Although, according to this Regulation the tolerance in energy use for space heating goes, in worst case calculation, up to 89 kWh/m2 a year, any other more favorable calculation with obligation to calculate the share of solar radiation for buildings, opens

  11. Implications of the international reduction pledges on long-term energy system changes and costs in China and India

    Lucas, Paul L.; Shukla, P.R.; Chen, Wenying; Ruijven, Bas J. van; Dhar, Subash; Elzen, Michel G.J. den; Vuuren, Detlef P. van

    2013-01-01

    This paper analyses the impact of postponing global mitigation action on abatement costs and energy systems changes in China and India. It compares energy-system changes and mitigation costs from a global and two national energy-system models under two global emission pathways with medium likelihood of meeting the 2 °C target: a least-cost pathway and a pathway that postpones ambitious mitigation action, starting from the Copenhagen Accord pledges. Both pathways have similar 2010–2050 cumulative greenhouse gas emissions. The analysis shows that postponing mitigation action increases the lock-in in less energy efficient technologies and results in much higher cumulative mitigation costs. The models agree that carbon capture and storage (CCS) and nuclear energy are important mitigation technologies, while the shares of biofuels and other renewables vary largely over the models. Differences between India and China with respect to the timing of emission reductions and the choice of mitigation measures relate to differences in projections of rapid economic change, capital stock turnover and technological development. Furthermore, depending on the way it is implemented, climate policy could increase indoor air pollution, but it is likely to provide synergies for energy security. These relations should be taken into account when designing national climate policies. - highlights: • We analyze long-term impacts of the international pledges for China and India. • We compare a least-cost pathway with a pathway starting from the Copenhagen pledges. • Postponing mitigation action implies much higher cumulative mitigation costs. • Postponing increases fossil fuel dependence and requires deeper long-term reductions. • Countries differ mainly due to different periods of rapid economic change

  12. Long-term no-till and stover retention each decrease the global warming potential of irrigated continuous corn.

    Jin, Virginia L; Schmer, Marty R; Stewart, Catherine E; Sindelar, Aaron J; Varvel, Gary E; Wienhold, Brian J

    2017-07-01

    Over the last 50 years, the most increase in cultivated land area globally has been due to a doubling of irrigated land. Long-term agronomic management impacts on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks, soil greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and global warming potential (GWP) in irrigated systems, however, remain relatively unknown. Here, residue and tillage management effects were quantified by measuring soil nitrous oxide (N 2 O) and methane (CH 4 ) fluxes and SOC changes (ΔSOC) at a long-term, irrigated continuous corn (Zea mays L.) system in eastern Nebraska, United States. Management treatments began in 2002, and measured treatments included no or high stover removal (0 or 6.8 Mg DM ha -1  yr -1 , respectively) under no-till (NT) or conventional disk tillage (CT) with full irrigation (n = 4). Soil N 2 O and CH 4 fluxes were measured for five crop-years (2011-2015), and ΔSOC was determined on an equivalent mass basis to ~30 cm soil depth. Both area- and yield-scaled soil N 2 O emissions were greater with stover retention compared to removal and for CT compared to NT, with no interaction between stover and tillage practices. Methane comprised <1% of total emissions, with NT being CH 4 neutral and CT a CH 4 source. Surface SOC decreased with stover removal and with CT after 14 years of management. When ΔSOC, soil GHG emissions, and agronomic energy usage were used to calculate system GWP, all management systems were net GHG sources. Conservation practices (NT, stover retention) each decreased system GWP compared to conventional practices (CT, stover removal), but pairing conservation practices conferred no additional mitigation benefit. Although cropping system, management equipment/timing/history, soil type, location, weather, and the depth to which ΔSOC is measured affect the GWP outcomes of irrigated systems at large, this long-term irrigated study provides valuable empirical evidence of how management decisions can impact soil GHG emissions and surface

  13. Contribution to a proposition for a long term development of nuclear energy: the TASSE concept (Thorium based Accelerator driven System with Simplified fuel cycle for long term Energy Production); Contribution a une proposition d'un developpement a long terme de l'energie nucleaire: le concept TASSE (Thorium based Accelerator driven System with Simplified fuel cycle for long term Energy Production)

    Berthou, V

    2000-10-30

    Nuclear industry creates waste which are in the middle of the discussion concerning the Nuclear Energy future. At this time, important decisions for the Energy production must be taken, so numerous researches are conducted within the framework of the Bataille law. The goal of these studies is to find a range of solutions concerning the waste management. An innovative system, called TASSE (Thorium based Accelerator driven System with Simplified fuel cycle for long term Energy production), is studied in this thesis. This reactor is included in a long term strategy, and is destined for the renewal of the reactor park. In the first part of this work, the main characteristics of TASSE have been defined. They are commensurate with some specific requirements such as: to insure a large time to the Nuclear Energy, to reduce the waste production in an important way, to eliminate waste already stocked in the present park, to insure the non proliferation, and to be economically competitive. Neutronics studies of TASSE have been done. A calculation procedure has been developed to reach the system equilibrium state. Several types of molten salts as well as a pebble-bed fuel have been studied. Thus, an optimal fuel has been brought out in regard to some parameters such as the burn up level, the spectrum, the waste toxicity, the cycle type. Eventually, various TASSE core layout have been envisaged. (author)

  14. Change of nuclear administrative system and long-term program for nuclear energy in Japan

    Yun, S. W.; Yang, M. H.; Jeong, H. S.

    2001-01-01

    Japanese new governmental adminstrative system was restructured and became in operation from January 1, 2001 including newly establishment of the Ministry of Cabinet. Accordingly, Japanese nuclear administrative system were also changed significantly, in order to reflect the changing policy environment and response to them more efficiently in the use and development of nuclear energy. Atomic Energy Commission, Nuclear Safety Commission administrated by Science and Technology Agency in the past, were moved to the Ministry of Cabinet, and Integrated Science and Technology Council was also newly established under the Ministry of Cabinet. And Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry(METI) is in charge of nuclear energy policy and the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology(MEXT) is in charge of nuclear academic science consequently. At the same time, the revision work of 'Long-term Program for Research, Development and Utilization of Nuclear of Japan' established in 1994, has been carried out from 1999 in order to set up the long term based national nuclear policy towards the 21st century, and finally the results were open to the public in November 2000. Major changes of nuclear policy of Japan the will be good references in the establishing future national nuclear policy for the use and development of nuclear energy

  15. Contribution to a proposition for a long term development of nuclear energy: the TASSE concept (Thorium based Accelerator driven System with Simplified fuel cycle for long term Energy Production); Contribution a une proposition d'un developpement a long terme de l'energie nucleaire: le concept TASSE (Thorium based Accelerator driven System with Simplified fuel cycle for long term Energy Production)

    Berthou, V

    2000-10-30

    Nuclear industry creates waste which are in the middle of the discussion concerning the Nuclear Energy future. At this time, important decisions for the Energy production must be taken, so numerous researches are conducted within the framework of the Bataille law. The goal of these studies is to find a range of solutions concerning the waste management. An innovative system, called TASSE (Thorium based Accelerator driven System with Simplified fuel cycle for long term Energy production), is studied in this thesis. This reactor is included in a long term strategy, and is destined for the renewal of the reactor park. In the first part of this work, the main characteristics of TASSE have been defined. They are commensurate with some specific requirements such as: to insure a large time to the Nuclear Energy, to reduce the waste production in an important way, to eliminate waste already stocked in the present park, to insure the non proliferation, and to be economically competitive. Neutronics studies of TASSE have been done. A calculation procedure has been developed to reach the system equilibrium state. Several types of molten salts as well as a pebble-bed fuel have been studied. Thus, an optimal fuel has been brought out in regard to some parameters such as the burn up level, the spectrum, the waste toxicity, the cycle type. Eventually, various TASSE core layout have been envisaged. (author)

  16. Variable Renewable Energy in Long-Term Planning Models: A Multi-Model Perspective

    Cole, Wesley J. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Frew, Bethany A. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu T. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sun, Yinong [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bistline, John [Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (United States); Blanford, Geoffrey [Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (United States); Young, David [Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (United States); Marcy, Cara [Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Namovicz, Chris [Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Edelman, Risa [Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States); Meroney, Bill [Environmental Protection Agency; Sims, Ryan [Environmental Protection Agency; Stenhouse, Jeb [Environmental Protection Agency; Donohoo-Vallett, Paul [U.S. Department of Energy

    2017-11-03

    Long-term capacity expansion models of the U.S. electricity sector have long been used to inform electric sector stakeholders and decision makers. With the recent surge in variable renewable energy (VRE) generators - primarily wind and solar photovoltaics - the need to appropriately represent VRE generators in these long-term models has increased. VRE generators are especially difficult to represent for a variety of reasons, including their variability, uncertainty, and spatial diversity. To assess current best practices, share methods and data, and identify future research needs for VRE representation in capacity expansion models, four capacity expansion modeling teams from the Electric Power Research Institute, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory conducted two workshops of VRE modeling for national-scale capacity expansion models. The workshops covered a wide range of VRE topics, including transmission and VRE resource data, VRE capacity value, dispatch and operational modeling, distributed generation, and temporal and spatial resolution. The objectives of the workshops were both to better understand these topics and to improve the representation of VRE across the suite of models. Given these goals, each team incorporated model updates and performed additional analyses between the first and second workshops. This report summarizes the analyses and model 'experiments' that were conducted as part of these workshops as well as the various methods for treating VRE among the four modeling teams. The report also reviews the findings and learnings from the two workshops. We emphasize the areas where there is still need for additional research and development on analysis tools to incorporate VRE into long-term planning and decision-making.

  17. Economical comparison of imported energy sources in terms of long-term production planning

    Gungor, Z.

    1999-01-01

    In this paper, the Turkish energy production sector is studied and power plants fueled by natural gas, imported coal and nuclear power are compared in terms of long-term (1996-2010) production economy. A net present value is used for comparing nuclear, coal and natural gas power plants. A scenario approach is utilized in establishing the effects of different factors, such as inflation rate, unit of investment costs, load factor change, discount rate and fuel price changes. Six different scenarios of interest are developed and discussed. The study ends with conclusions and recommendations based on a study of a reference scenario and alternative scenarios. (author)

  18. Compressed air system best practice programmes: What needs to change to secure long-term energy savings for New Zealand?

    Neale, James R.; Kamp, Peter J.J.

    2009-01-01

    The establishment of a compressed air system (CAS) best practice programme is a key component of one of the initial industrial energy efficiency programmes being driven by New Zealand government ministries and agencies. In a global context this is not a new initiative in that existing programmes have been functioning in Europe and USA, yet in each of these cases the impact ten years-on has been patchy with limited long-term improvements in overall energy efficiency. The New Zealand CAS best practice programme currently under development is sponsored by the Electricity Commission (EC) and the Energy Efficiency Conservation Authority (EECA). It takes a new approach in policy direction, with variations from those used in other international programmes. A significant level of electricity levy money is to be committed to this programme and it is timely to highlight its merits and potential weaknesses, and what is required to generate long-term energy savings beyond the levels achieved by more mature overseas programmes.

  19. Developing a long-term global tourism transport model using a behavioural approach: implications for sustainable tourism policy making.

    Peeters, P.M.

    2013-01-01

    This paper explores the creation and use of a long-term global tourism transport model for private and public sector tourism policy makers. Given that technology is unlikely to reduce tourism transport's impact on climate change sufficiently to avoid serious dangers, behavioural change is necessary.

  20. Long-term monitoring of Sacramento Shade program trees: tree survival, growth and energy-saving performance

    Yekang Ko; Jun-Hak Lee; E. Gregory McPherson; Lara A. Roman

    2015-01-01

    Long-term survival and growth of urban forests are critical to achieve the targeted benefits of urban tree planting programs, such as building energy savings from tree shade. However, little is known about how trees perform in the long-term, especially in residential areas. Given this gap in the literature, we monitored 22-years of post-planting survival, growth, and...

  1. Long term building energy demand for India: Disaggregating end use energy services in an integrated assessment modeling framework

    Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Eom, Jiyong; Clarke, Leon E.; Shukla, Priyadarshi R.

    2014-01-01

    With increasing population, income, and urbanization, meeting the energy service demands for the building sector will be a huge challenge for Indian energy policy. Although there is broad consensus that the Indian building sector will grow and evolve over the coming century, there is little understanding of the potential nature of this evolution over the longer term. The present study uses a technologically detailed, service based building energy model nested in the long term, global, integrated assessment framework, GCAM, to produce scenarios of the evolution of the Indian buildings sector up through the end of the century. The results support the idea that as India evolves toward developed country per-capita income levels, its building sector will largely evolve to resemble those of the currently developed countries (heavy reliance on electricity both for increasing cooling loads and a range of emerging appliance and other plug loads), albeit with unique characteristics based on its climate conditions (cooling dominating heating and even more so with climate change), on fuel preferences that may linger from the present (for example, a preference for gas for cooking), and vestiges of its development path (including remnants of rural poor that use substantial quantities of traditional biomass). - Highlights: ► Building sector final energy demand in India will grow to over five times by century end. ► Space cooling and appliance services will grow substantially in the future. ► Energy service demands will be met predominantly by electricity and gas. ► Urban centers will face huge demand for floor space and building energy services. ► Carbon tax policy will have little effect on reducing building energy demands

  2. Long-term affected energy production of waste to energy technologies identified by use of energy system analysis

    Münster, Marie; Meibom, Peter

    2010-01-01

    Affected energy production is often decisive for the outcome of consequential life-cycle assessments when comparing the potential environmental impact of products or services. Affected energy production is however difficult to determine. In this article the future long-term affected energy...... production is identified by use of energy system analysis. The focus is on different uses of waste for energy production. The Waste-to-Energy technologies analysed include co-combustion of coal and waste, anaerobic digestion and thermal gasification. The analysis is based on optimization of both investments...... and production of electricity, district heating and bio-fuel in a future possible energy system in 2025 in the countries of the Northern European electricity market (Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland and Germany). Scenarios with different CO2 quota costs are analysed. It is demonstrated that the waste...

  3. Long-term development of the Swedish market of energy wood

    Dickens, C H

    1980-03-01

    The aim of the report is to elucidate the long-term development. The sort of wood for industrial purposes also seems to be best suited for the introduction in fuel supply. This might change the conditions precedent for the manufacturing - refining industry. The appraisement should thus cover the total wood market. The report considers three time spans namely the historical development, the description of the actual situation and an estimate of the future. The actual situation presents large regional differences which must be observed for times to come. The potential of the wood industry is its proximity to the European market, its character of long-term productivity, the technical qualifications and its unexploited opportunities as to the markets and the raw materials. The problems of the industry are the following: economy, the energy situation and the limited supply of raw products. The essential parts of the strategy of means are as follows - marketing, product development, the utilization of the qualities of the raw products, improvement of process techniques and the development of a market for energy wood and peat. The study presents recommendations of continued analysis of the market based upon regions of the size of administrative districts.

  4. Energy stores are not altered by long-term partial sleep deprivation in Drosophila melanogaster.

    Susan T Harbison

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Recent human studies reveal a widespread association between short sleep and obesity. Two hypotheses, which are not mutually exclusive, might explain this association. First, genetic factors that reduce endogenous sleep times might also impact energy stores, an assertion that we confirmed in a previous study. Second, metabolism may be altered by chronic partial sleep deprivation. Here we address the second assertion by measuring the impact of long-term partial sleep deprivation on energy stores using Drosophila as a model. We subjected flies to long-term partial sleep deprivation via two different methods: a mechanical stimulus and a light stimulus. We then measured whole-body triglycerides and glycogen, two important sources of energy for the fly, and compared them to un-stimulated controls. We also measured changes in energy stores in response to a random circadian clock shift. Sex and line-dependent alterations in glycogen and/or triglyceride levels occurred in response to the circadian clock shift and in flies subjected to a single night of sleep deprivation using light. Thus, consistent with previous studies, our findings suggest that acute sleep loss and changes to the circadian clock can alter metabolism. Significant changes in energy stores were also observed when flies were subjected to chronic sleep loss via the mechanical stimulus, although not the light stimulus. Interestingly, mechanical stimulation resulted in the same change in energy stores even when it was not associated with sleep deprivation, suggesting that the changes are caused by stress rather than sleep loss. These findings emphasize the importance of taking stress into account when evaluating the relationship between sleep loss and metabolism.

  5. Long-term results after Ilizarov treatment for severe high-energy injuries of the elbow.

    Fodor, Lucian; Ullmann, Yehuda; Soudry, Michael; Lerner, Alexander

    2009-06-01

    Clinical aspects, such as the long-term results after circular external fixation and functional rehabilitation after high-energy injuries of the elbow joint, have not received sufficient attention in the literature. Fourteen patients with high-energy elbow injuries were treated in our hospital over the last 15 years with a circular external fixation frame. The mechanism of injury was blast in eight patients, gunshot wounds in two, motor vehicle crash in two, and fall from height in two. Twelve patients had high-energy open periarticular fractures, nine had Gustillo-Anderson 3B fractures, and three had Gustillo-Anderson 3C fractures. Two patients suffered from closed high-energy periarticular elbow injuries. Seven patients had associated peripheral neurologic injuries and three had vascular injuries. Average Ilizarov fixation time was 20 weeks (range, 6-47 weeks). The follow-up period varied from 1.5 years to 11 years. The average arc of elbow flexion was 110.4 degrees and extension was 19.6 degrees. The average arc of forearm rotation was of 63.5 degrees for pronation (range, 5-90 degrees) and 63.2 degrees for supination (range, 5-90 degrees). The average Mayo Elbow Performance Index score was 84 points (range, 60-100) and the average Khalfayan functional score was 83.4 (range, 68.7-100). Long-term follow-up proved that the hinged Ilizarov/hybrid frame represents a useful instrument to provide stabilization of the elbow joint while facilitating early movements and physiotherapy. The main indication is patients who suffered from open high-energy contaminated fractures with extensive soft-tissue damage (e.g., blast, war injuries) and combined bone and ligaments injuries.

  6. Prospective opportunities for using the innovative nuclear reactors in Armenian energy sector long-term programme development

    Gevorgyan, A.

    2003-01-01

    gases such as CO 2 CO, SO 2 and NOx, which are responsible for acid rain and global warming, some 35% of the present electricity generation is based on fossil fuels (natural gas), giving emission of 1 267 213 tons of CO 2 , 3355 tons of NOx, 960 tons of CO; and 9 tons of SO 2 . Although, some radioactive materials are released to the environment during normal operation of nuclear power plants and other nuclear fuel cycle facilities, the amounts released are very small and strictly kept within the permissible limits. So, we can say that the option with combined cycle scenario, from this point of view, is not as preferable as that with the nuclear scenario. Taking into consideration also a social aspect, we can see that in case of realization of an option of energy sector development with the nuclear scenario, it is expected that more than 10.000 workers will be employed in the construction process. Considerable part of industry and transport infrastructure of the country will be involved. For the country that suffers a transition period, such huge construction may be a locomotive for the whole economy. The implementation of nuclear option would also make it possible to include the costs of decommissioning of the old units of the ANPP into the tariff on the electricity generated by the new nuclear unit. Thus, the analysis performed has shown that the sustainable energy long-term development in Armenia can be achieved provided that the nuclear scenario will be implemented as the preferable, in view of all aspects, of the two above-mentioned scenarios considered. This may be ensured in case of utilization of innovative nuclear reactors with high-level operational safety and economic indicators. (author)

  7. Deviations in energy sensing predict long-term weight change in overweight Native Americans.

    Basolo, Alessio; Votruba, Susanne B; Heinitz, Sascha; Krakoff, Jonathan; Piaggi, Paolo

    2018-05-01

    Energy expenditure (EE), as reflective of body energy demand, has been proposed to be the key driver of food intake, possibly influencing weight change in humans. Variation in this energy-sensing link (overeating relative to weight-maintaining energy requirements) may lead to weight gain over time. Sixty-one overweight otherwise healthy Native Americans (age: 34.0 ± 7.9 years, body fat: 39.7 ± 9.5%, 36 males) were admitted to our clinical research unit for measurements of body composition by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, and 24-h EE and respiratory quotient (RQ) in a whole-room indirect calorimeter during energy balance and weight stability. Following this, ad libitum food intake was assessed for three days using computerized vending machines. Body weight change under unrestricted free-living conditions was assessed at an outpatient follow-up visit (median follow-up time = 1.7 years). Total ad libitum food intake (3-day average) was positively associated with 24-h EE (r = 0.44, p energy requirements can be assessed and predicts long-term weight gain, suggesting that variation in energy sensing may influence appetite by favoring overeating thus promoting obesity development. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  8. China's Building Energy Use: A Long-Term Perspective based on a Detailed Assessment

    Eom, Jiyong; Clarke, Leon E.; Kim, Son H.; Kyle, G. Page; Patel, Pralit L.

    2012-01-13

    We present here a detailed, service-based model of China's building energy use, nested in the GCAM (Global Change Assessment Model) integrated assessment framework. Using the model, we explore long-term pathways of China's building energy use and identify opportunities of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The inclusion of a structural model of building energy demands within an integrated assessment framework represents a major methodological advance. It allows for a structural understanding of the drivers of building energy consumption while simultaneously considering the other human and natural system interactions that influence changes in the global energy system and climate. We also explore a range of different scenarios to gain insights into how China's building sector might evolve and what the implications might be for improved building energy technology and carbon policies. The analysis suggests that China's building energy growth will not wane anytime soon, although technology improvement will put downward pressure on this growth. Also, regardless of the scenarios represented, the growth will involve the continued, rapid electrification of the buildings sector throughout the century, and this transition will be accelerated by the implementation of carbon policy.

  9. An econometric study on long-term energy outlook and the implications of renewable energy utilization in Malaysia

    Gan, Peck Yean [Department of Engineering-Energy and Environment Science, Nagaoka University of Technology, 1603-1 Kamitomioka, Nagaoka, Niigata 940-2188 (Japan); Li, ZhiDong [Department of Management and Information System Science, Nagaoka University of Technology, 1603-1 Kamitomioka, Nagaoka, Niigata 940-2188 (Japan)

    2008-02-15

    We developed a comprehensive econometric model to study the long-term outlook of Malaysia's economy, energy and environment to 2030. Our projections under the reference scenario indicated that Malaysia's gross domestic production (GDP) is expected to average 4.6% from 2004 to 2030, and total primary energy consumption will triple by 2030. Coal import will increase following governmental policy of intensifying its use for power generation. Oil import is predicted to take place by 2013 and reach 45 Mtoe in 2030. Hence, in the near future, Malaysia's energy import dependency will rise. Carbon emissions will triple by 2030. On the other hand, our projections under an alternative renewable energy (RE) scenario showed that the utilization of RE is a strategic option to improve the long-term energy security and environmental performance of Malaysia. However, substantial governmental involvements and support, as well as the establishment of a regulatory framework are necessary. (author)

  10. An econometric study on long-term energy outlook and the implications of renewable energy utilization in Malaysia

    Gan, Peck Yean; Li, ZhiDong

    2008-01-01

    We developed a comprehensive econometric model to study the long-term outlook of Malaysia's economy, energy and environment to 2030. Our projections under the reference scenario indicated that Malaysia's gross domestic production (GDP) is expected to average 4.6% from 2004 to 2030, and total primary energy consumption will triple by 2030. Coal import will increase following governmental policy of intensifying its use for power generation. Oil import is predicted to take place by 2013 and reach 45 Mtoe in 2030. Hence, in the near future, Malaysia's energy import dependency will rise. Carbon emissions will triple by 2030. On the other hand, our projections under an alternative renewable energy (RE) scenario showed that the utilization of RE is a strategic option to improve the long-term energy security and environmental performance of Malaysia. However, substantial governmental involvements and support, as well as the establishment of a regulatory framework are necessary. (author)

  11. Evaluation of nuclear power development scenarios in romania envisaging the long-term national energy sustainability

    Margeanu, C.; Apostol, M.; Visan, I.; Prodea, I.

    2015-01-01

    The paper summarizes the results of RATEN ICN Pitesti experts' activities in the IAEA's Collaborative Project INPRO-SYNERGIES. Romanian study proposes to evaluate and analyze development of the nuclear capacity and increasing of its share in national energy sector, envisaging the long term national and regional energy sustainability by keeping options open for the future while bringing solutions to short/medium-term challenges. The study focused on the modelling of national NES (Nuclear Energy System) development on short and medium-term (time horizon 2050), considering the existing NFC (Nuclear Fuel Cycle) infrastructure and legislation, provisions of strategic documents in force and including also the possibility of regional collaboration regarding U/fresh fuel supply and SF (Spent Fuel) storage, as services provided at international market prices. The energy system modelling was realized by using the IAEA's MESSAGE program. The study results offer a clear image and also the possible answer to several key questions regarding: potential of nuclear energy to participate with an important share in national energy mix, in conditions of cost competitiveness, safety and security of supply; impact on national energy mix portfolio of capacities and electricity production; impact on Uranium domestic resources; economic projection/investments needed for new nuclear capacities addition; fresh fuel requirements for nuclear capacities; SF annually discharged and transferred to interim wet storage for cooling; SF volume in interim dry storage, etc. (authors)

  12. Long term energy plan of Mongolian with nuclear power plant using Message code

    Tsolmonbaatar, Batmunkh; Roh, Myung Sub [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-10-15

    In this paper, an overview of the current situation of Mongolia's energy sector and its role and contribution in the country's economy and environment, and a comprehensive assessment of the sector, are provided. Most importantly, the Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impacts (MESSAGE) model used to forecast the future energy supply and demand and to build and compare possible scenarios that could sustain economic development, environmental sustainability, and energy security in the country. In this paper, two scenarios for long-term energy development in Mongolia by 2040 were built using the MESSAGE model, and 2010 was set as the base year. The forecasting of the energy demand and supply was shown as a build the first model of Mongolia energy system to forecast the potentials of using NPP technology in the energy mix of Mongolia energy system. The industry and mining project sectors are expected to remain as the main energy consumers in the next decades. The demand of the sector will be three times of the total energy demand by 2040. The development of big mining projects and the increasing number of vehicles in Mongolia are the main factors that will contribute to the increased demand. Coal still accounts for the largest share in Mongolia's total primary energy demand. MESSAGE result shown in fig.2, which shows an exponential increase in coal resources demand in the future. It will be big issue to environmental impact (e.g., CO{sub 2} emission). The estimated CO{sub 2} emissions from fuel combustion are 13.0 million tones in Mongolia, this should be mitigated significantly, to meet the CO{sub 2} reduction target.

  13. The global economic long-term potential of modern biomass in a climate-constrained world

    Klein, David; Humpenöder, Florian; Bauer, Nico; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Popp, Alexander; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Bonsch, Markus; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2014-07-01

    Low-stabilization scenarios consistent with the 2 °C target project large-scale deployment of purpose-grown lignocellulosic biomass. In case a GHG price regime integrates emissions from energy conversion and from land-use/land-use change, the strong demand for bioenergy and the pricing of terrestrial emissions are likely to coincide. We explore the global potential of purpose-grown lignocellulosic biomass and ask the question how the supply prices of biomass depend on prices for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the land-use sector. Using the spatially explicit global land-use optimization model MAgPIE, we construct bioenergy supply curves for ten world regions and a global aggregate in two scenarios, with and without a GHG tax. We find that the implementation of GHG taxes is crucial for the slope of the supply function and the GHG emissions from the land-use sector. Global supply prices start at 5 GJ-1 and increase almost linearly, doubling at 150 EJ (in 2055 and 2095). The GHG tax increases bioenergy prices by 5 GJ-1 in 2055 and by 10 GJ-1 in 2095, since it effectively stops deforestation and thus excludes large amounts of high-productivity land. Prices additionally increase due to costs for N2O emissions from fertilizer use. The GHG tax decreases global land-use change emissions by one-third. However, the carbon emissions due to bioenergy production increase by more than 50% from conversion of land that is not under emission control. Average yields required to produce 240 EJ in 2095 are roughly 600 GJ ha-1 yr-1 with and without tax.

  14. The global economic long-term potential of modern biomass in a climate-constrained world

    Klein, David; Humpenöder, Florian; Bauer, Nico; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Popp, Alexander; Leon Bodirsky, Benjamin; Bonsch, Markus; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2014-01-01

    Low-stabilization scenarios consistent with the 2 °C target project large-scale deployment of purpose-grown lignocellulosic biomass. In case a GHG price regime integrates emissions from energy conversion and from land-use/land-use change, the strong demand for bioenergy and the pricing of terrestrial emissions are likely to coincide. We explore the global potential of purpose-grown lignocellulosic biomass and ask the question how the supply prices of biomass depend on prices for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the land-use sector. Using the spatially explicit global land-use optimization model MAgPIE, we construct bioenergy supply curves for ten world regions and a global aggregate in two scenarios, with and without a GHG tax. We find that the implementation of GHG taxes is crucial for the slope of the supply function and the GHG emissions from the land-use sector. Global supply prices start at $5 GJ −1 and increase almost linearly, doubling at 150 EJ (in 2055 and 2095). The GHG tax increases bioenergy prices by $5 GJ −1 in 2055 and by $10 GJ −1 in 2095, since it effectively stops deforestation and thus excludes large amounts of high-productivity land. Prices additionally increase due to costs for N 2 O emissions from fertilizer use. The GHG tax decreases global land-use change emissions by one-third. However, the carbon emissions due to bioenergy production increase by more than 50% from conversion of land that is not under emission control. Average yields required to produce 240 EJ in 2095 are roughly 600 GJ ha −1 yr −1 with and without tax. (letter)

  15. Analysis of Long-Term Global Solar Radiation, Sunshine Duration and Air Temperature Data of Ankara and Modeling with Curve Fitting Methods

    Mehmet YEŞİLBUDAK

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The information about solar parameters is important in the installation of photovoltaic energy systems that are reliable, environmentally friendly and sustainable. In this study, initially, long-term global solar radiation, sunshine duration and air temperature data of Ankara are analyzed on the annual, monthly and daily basis, elaborately. Afterwards, three different empirical methods that are polynomial, Gaussian and Fourier are used for the purpose of modeling long-term monthly total global solar radiation, monthly total sunshine duration and monthly mean air temperature data. The coefficient of determination and the root mean square error are computed as statistical test metrics in order to compare data modeling performance of the mentioned empirical methods. The empirical methods that provide the best results enable to model the solar characteristics of Ankara more accurately and the achieved outcomes constitute the significant resource for other locations with similar climatic conditions.

  16. Fiscal 1999 survey report on survey of long-term strategy on energy technology. Long-term energy technological strategy survey (Long-term energy technological strategy survey); 1999 nendo choki energy gijutsu senryaku nado ni kansuru chosa hokokusho. Choki energy gijutsu senryaku chosa (choki energy gijutsu senryaku chosa))

    NONE

    2000-03-01

    To enhance still more effectively the research and development of energy-related/environmental technologies, research and development strategies have to be worked out from a long-term view point and policy resources such as investment in research and development should be optimally distributed after clarifying and defining the course to follow toward the achievement of research and development goals. This project aims to conduct studies, and to show the course to follow in the future, towards the establishment of a long-term energy technological strategy by investigating energy systems for around 2050, interim energy systems at the intermediate stage, and innovative energy technologies for realizing such energy systems. In Chapter 1, the position of the survey and its purpose and prerequisites are shown. In Chapter 2, the history of social and economic conditions surrounding energy/environmental technologies and of energy situation up to the present time is compiled, and the outlook is analyzed and predicted. In Chapter 3, formulation of a long-term energy technological strategy is discussed. In Chapter 5, how to embody such a strategy is shown. (NEDO)

  17. Long-term energy savings and greenhouse gas emission reductions in the Swiss residential sector

    Siller, Thomas; Kost, Michael; Imboden, Dieter

    2007-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to explore the possibilities to reach two long-term targets regarding energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions of the Swiss residential building stock: a reduction of the final energy consumption by a factor of 3 and of CO 2 emissions by a factor of 5 until 2050. A model is constructed to describe the dynamics of the energy-relevant properties of the residential building stock. Appropriate scenarios are discussed in terms of decisions made during construction or renovation of residential buildings which affect heat demand and determine the energy carriers used for heating and hot water generation. We show that both targets could be reached, although ambitious efforts are necessary. The central element of a successful strategy is to reduce the specific heat demand of existing buildings during renovation and to substitute the heating and hot water systems by less carbon intensive ones. Our results suggest that there is more flexibility to reach the emission target than the energy reduction target

  18. Modelling long term energy consumption of French residential sector - improving behavioral realism and simulating ambitious scenarios

    Allibe, Benoit

    2012-01-01

    This thesis aims to integrate components of an economic model of the behaviors of households in a technological model of French residential sector energy consumption dynamics and to analyze the consequences of this integration on the results of long-term residential energy consumption simulations (2030-2050). The results of this work highlight significant differences between the actual household space heating energy consumptions and those estimated by engineering models. These differences are largely due to the elasticity of thermal comfort demand to thermal comfort price. Our improved model makes it possible to conjointly integrate the concepts of price elasticity and rebound effect (the increase in energy service level following an improvement in energy performance of the equipment providing the service) in a daily behavior model. Regarding space heating consumption, the consequences of this behavioral adaptation - combined with some technical defects - are a significant reduction of the technical and behavioral energy saving potentials (while effective daily use of energy is generally lower than predicted by engineering models) at a national level. This implies that mid and long-term national energy policy targets (a 38% drop in primary energy consumption by 2020 and a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by a factor of 4 by 2050 compared to the 1990 level) will be harder to reach than previously expected for the residential sector. These results also imply that a strong reduction in carbon emissions cannot be achieved solely through the diffusion of efficient technologies and energy conservation behavior but also requires to significantly lower the average carbon content of residential space heating energy through the generalized use of wood energy. The second issue addressed in this thesis is the influence of the resolution of a techno-economic model (i.e. its ability to represent the various values that a variable can have within the modeled system) on its

  19. Long-term and realistic global change manipulations had low impact on diversity of soil biota in temperate heathland

    Holmstrup, Martin; Damgaard, Christian; Schmidt, Inger K

    2017-01-01

    C:N ratio. After eight years of treatment, however, the CO2-increased litter C:N ratio did not influence the diversity in any of the four fauna groups. The number of significant correlations between treatments, food source quality, and soil biota diversities was reduced from six to three after two...... and eight years, respectively. These results suggest a remarkable resilience within the soil biota against global climate change treatments in the long term....

  20. The implications of future building scenarios for long-term building energy research and development

    Flynn, W.T.

    1986-12-01

    This report presents a discussion of alternative future scenarios of the building environment to the year 2010 and assesses the implications these scenarios present for long-term building energy R and D. The scenarios and energy R and D implications derived from them are intended to serve as the basis from which a strategic plan can be developed for the management of R and D programs conducted by the Office of Buildings and Community Systems, US Department of Energy. The scenarios and analysis presented here have relevance not only for government R and D programs; on the contrary, it is hoped that the results of this effort will be of interest and useful to researchers in both private and public sector organizations that deal with building energy R and D. Making R and D decisions today based on an analysis that attempts to delineate the nexus of events 25 years in the future are clearly decisions made in the face of uncertainty. Yet, the effective management of R and D programs requires a future-directed understanding of markets, technological developments, and environmental factors, as well as their interactions. The analysis presented in this report is designed to serve that need. Although the probability of any particular scenario actually occurring is uncertain, the scenarios to be presented are sufficiently robust to set bounds within which to examine the interaction of forces that will shape the future building environment.

  1. Excavation-drier method of energy-peat extraction reduces long-term climatic impact

    Silvan, N.; Silvan, K.; Laine, J. [Finnish Forest Research Inst., Parkano (Finland)], e-mail: niko.silvan@metla.fi; Vaisanen, S.; Soukka, R. [Lappeenranta Univ.of Techology (Finland)

    2012-11-01

    Climatic impacts of energy-peat extraction are of increasing concern due to EU emissions trading requirements. A new excavation-drier peat extraction method has been developed to reduce the climatic impact and increase the efficiency of peat extraction. To quantify and compare the soil GHG fluxes of the excavation drier and the traditional milling methods, as well as the areas from which the energy peat is planned to be extracted in the future (extraction reserve area types), soil CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O fluxes were measured during 2006-2007 at three sites in Finland. Within each site, fluxes were measured from drained extraction reserve areas, extraction fields and stockpiles of both methods and additionally from the biomass driers of the excavation-drier method. The Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), described at a principal level in ISO Standards 14040:2006 and 14044:2006, was used to assess the long-term (100 years) climatic impact from peatland utilisation with respect to land use and energy production chains where utilisation of coal was replaced with peat. Coal was used as a reference since in many cases peat and coal can replace each other in same power plants. According to this study, the peat extraction method used was of lesser significance than the extraction reserve area type in regards to the climatic impact. However, the excavation-drier method seems to cause a slightly reduced climatic impact as compared with the prevailing milling method. (orig.)

  2. Long-term continuous energy injection in the afterglow of GRB 060729

    Xu Ming; Huang Yongfeng; Lu Tan

    2009-01-01

    A long plateau phase and an amazing level of brightness have been observed in the X-ray afterglow of GRB 060729. This peculiar light curve is likely due to long-term energy injection in external shock. Here, we present a detailed numerical study of the energy injection process of magnetic dipole radiation from a strongly magnetized millisecond pulsar and model the multi-band afterglow observations. It is found that this model can successfully explain the long plateaus in the observed X-ray and optical afterglow light curves. The sharp break following the plateaus could be due to the rapid decline of the emission power of the central pulsar. At an even later time (∼ 5 x 10 6 s), an obvious jet break appears, which implies a relatively large half opening angle of θ ∼ 0.3 for the GRB ejecta. Due to the energy injection, the Lorentz factor of the outflow is still larger than two even at 10 7 s after the GRB trigger, making the X-ray afterglow of this burst detectable by Chandra even 642 d after the burst.

  3. An integrated stochastic multi-regional long-term energy planning model incorporating autonomous power systems and demand response

    Koltsaklis, Nikolaos E.; Liu, Pei; Georgiadis, Michael C.

    2015-01-01

    The power sector faces a rapid transformation worldwide from a dominant fossil-fueled towards a low carbon electricity generation mix. Renewable energy technologies (RES) are steadily becoming a greater part of the global energy mix, in particular in regions that have put in place policies and measures to promote their utilization. This paper presents an optimization-based approach to address the generation expansion planning (GEP) problem of a large-scale, central power system in a highly uncertain and volatile electricity industry environment. A multi-regional, multi-period linear mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model is presented, combining optimization techniques with a Monte Carlo (MCA) method and demand response concepts. The optimization goal concerns the minimization of the total discounted cost by determining optimal power capacity additions per time interval and region, and the power generation mix per technology and time period. The model is evaluated on the Greek power system (GPS), taking also into consideration the scheduled interconnection of the mainland power system with those of selected autonomous islands (Cyclades and Crete), and aims at providing full insight into the composition of the long-term energy roadmap at a national level. - Highlights: • A spatial, multi-period, long-term generation expansion planning model is presented. • A Monte-Carlo method along with a demand response mechanism are incorporated. • Autonomous power systems interconnection is considered. • Electricity and CO 2 emission trade are taken into account. • Lignite, natural gas and wind power comprise the dominant power technologies

  4. Energy renovation of single-family houses in Denmark utilising long-term financing based on equity

    Kragh, Jesper; Rose, Jørgen

    2011-01-01

    This paper aims to present an economic overview of the opportunities for energy renovation of single-family houses in Denmark financed over the long term. The paper focuses on the economic difference between energy savings and the repayment of investment. Taking out the average remaining 20% equity...... in long-term property mortgage loans and utilising it for extensive energy renovation improves both the economy and the extent of included measures. Approximately 30% of energy consumption in Denmark is used for space heating. The existing 1 million single-family houses account for approximately half...

  5. Valuation of long-term investments in energy assets under uncertainty

    Abadie, L. M. [Bilbao Bizkaia Kutxa, Gran Via 30, 48009 Bilbao (Spain)

    2009-07-01

    This paper aims to contribute to the development of valuation models for long-term investments while keeping an eye on market prices. The adopted methodology is rooted on the existence of markets for futures and options on commodities related to energy investments. These markets are getting ever-increasingly liquid with ever-longer maturities while trading contracts. We discuss the advantages of this approach relative to other alternatives such as the Net Present Value (NPV) or the Internal Rate of Return (IRR), despite a limited increase in the complexity of the models involved. More specifically, using the valuation methods well-known to energy-finance academics, the paper shows how to: break down an investment into its constituent parts, apply to each of them the corresponding risk premium, value annuities on assets with a deterministic or stochastic behavior, and value the options that are available to its owner, in order to get an overall value of the investment project. It also includes an application to improvement in coal consumption, where futures markets are used to get a numerical estimate of the parameters that are required for valuation. The results are then compared with those from traditional methodologies. Conclusions for this type of investments under uncertainty are derived. (author)

  6. Valuation of Long-Term Investments in Energy Assets under Uncertainty

    Luis M. Abadie

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to contribute to the development of valuation models for long-term investments while keeping an eye on market prices. The adopted methodology is rooted on the existence of markets for futures and options on commodities related to energy investments. These markets are getting ever-increasingly liquid with ever-longer maturities while trading contracts. We discuss the advantages of this approach relative to other alternatives such as the Net Present Value (NPV or the Internal Rate of Return (IRR, despite a limited increase in the complexity of the models involved. More specifically, using the valuation methods well-known to energy-finance academics, the paper shows how to: break down an investment into its constituent parts, apply to each of them the corresponding risk premium, value annuities on assets with a deterministic or stochastic behavior, and value the options that are available to its owner, in order to get an overall value of the investment project. It also includes an application to improvement in coal consumption, where futures markets are used to get a numerical estimate of the parameters that are required for valuation. The results are then compared with those from traditional methodologies. Conclusions for this type of investments under uncertainty are derived.

  7. Valuation of long-term investments in energy assets under uncertainty

    Abadie, L. M.

    2009-01-01

    This paper aims to contribute to the development of valuation models for long-term investments while keeping an eye on market prices. The adopted methodology is rooted on the existence of markets for futures and options on commodities related to energy investments. These markets are getting ever-increasingly liquid with ever-longer maturities while trading contracts. We discuss the advantages of this approach relative to other alternatives such as the Net Present Value (NPV) or the Internal Rate of Return (IRR), despite a limited increase in the complexity of the models involved. More specifically, using the valuation methods well-known to energy-finance academics, the paper shows how to: break down an investment into its constituent parts, apply to each of them the corresponding risk premium, value annuities on assets with a deterministic or stochastic behavior, and value the options that are available to its owner, in order to get an overall value of the investment project. It also includes an application to improvement in coal consumption, where futures markets are used to get a numerical estimate of the parameters that are required for valuation. The results are then compared with those from traditional methodologies. Conclusions for this type of investments under uncertainty are derived. (author)

  8. Evaluating the Long-term Water Cycle Trends at a Global-scale using Satellite and Assimilation Datasets

    Kim, H.; Lakshmi, V.

    2017-12-01

    Global-scale soil moisture and rainfall products retrieved from remotely sensed and assimilation datasets provide an effective way to monitor near surface soil moisture content and precipitation with sub-daily temporal resolution. In the present study, we employed the concept of the stored precipitation fraction Fp(f) in order to examine the long-term water cycle trends at a global-scale. The analysis was done for Fp(f) trends with the various geophysical aspects such as climate zone, land use classifications, amount of vegetation, and soil properties. Furthermore, we compared a global-scale Fp(f) using different microwave-based satellite soil moisture datasets. The Fp(f) is calculated by utilized surface soil moisture dataset from Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity, Advanced Scatterometer, Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2, and precipitation information from Global Precipitation Measurement Mission and Global Land Data Assimilation System. Different results from microwave-based soil moisture dataset showed discordant results particularly over arid and highly vegetated regions. The results of this study provide us new insights of the long-term water cycle trends over different land surface areas. Thereby also highlighting the advantages of the recently available GPM and SMAP datasets for the uses in various hydrometeorological applications.

  9. Storm impacts on a high energy sandy beach system, northwest Ireland: short (event) to long term (decadal) behaviour

    Guisado-Pintado, Emilia; Jackson, Derek; Cooper, Andrew; O'Connor, Marianne

    2017-04-01

    Long-term monitoring of beach dynamics is an important element in risk prevention and management of both natural and human resources at the coast. The predicted intensification in storminess (frequency, duration and magnitude), partly associated with climate change, represents a pressing concern for coastal communities globally and has undoubtedly led to an improvement in available techniques and technologies for observation and analysis. Here we examine a high energy Atlantic beach system at Five Fingers strand (NW Ireland) to help understand hydrodynamic forcing on beach response under various wave energy scenarios. The system, which has been modally attuned to a large swell wave environment, periodically undergoes significant morphological changes over various spatial and temporal scales manifest in the development and movements of dynamic nearshore bars and a nearshore ebb-tide delta. A combination of field and laboratory techniques (GPS, Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS) Instrumentation, Drone surveys) implemented from the shoreface to the beach, captures the response and evolution of the system over the short (event), medium (weeks to months) and long-term (multiyear) timescale. Numerical modelling of nearshore wave hydrodynamics (using SWAN wave simulation model) helps understanding wave forcing across shoreface area and is ran under a number of iterative time intervals. Here, we investigate the role of infrequent and sometimes extreme events in the system to understand the importance of clustering of storminess and the occurrence of single high-magnitude storm events that perturb the inlet-beach system and thus induce key morphodynamic changes. Preliminary results show that ultimately the configuration of the ebb-tide channel influences the geomorphic response of the system. In the short term, a storm induced erosion of the shoreface is observed, which also appears to lead to changes in the ebb-tide channel, and ultimately the welding of a nearshore bar

  10. Development of a dispatch model of the European power system for coupling with a long-term foresight energy model

    Despres, Jacques

    2015-12-01

    Renewable sources of electricity production are strongly increasing in many parts of the world. The production costs are going down quickly, thus accelerating the deployment of new solar and wind electricity generation. In the long-term, these variable sources of electricity could represent a high share of the power system. However, long-term foresight energy models have difficulties describing precisely the integration challenges of Variable Renewable Energy Sources (VRES) such as wind or solar. They just do not represent the short-term technical constraints of the power sector. The objective of this paper is to show a new approach of the representation of the challenges of variability in the long-term foresight energy model POLES (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems). We develop a short-term optimization model for the power sector operation, EUCAD (European Unit Commitment and Dispatch) and we couple it to POLES year after year. The direct coupling, with bi-directional exchanges of information, brings technical precision to the long-term coherence of energy scenarios. (author)

  11. Effects of stochastic energy prices on long-term energy-economic scenarios

    Krey, Volker; Martinsen, Dag; Wagner, Hermann-Josef

    2007-01-01

    In view of the currently observed energy prices, recent price scenarios, which have been very moderate until 2004, also tend to favor high future energy prices. Having a large impact on energy-economic scenarios, we incorporate uncertain energy prices into an energy systems model by including a stochastic risk function. Energy systems models are frequently used to aid scenario analysis in energy-related studies. The impact of uncertain energy prices on the supply structures and the interaction with measures in the demand sectors is the focus of the present paper. For the illustration of the methodological approach, scenarios for four EU countries are presented. Including the stochastic risk function, elements of high energy price scenarios can be found in scenarios with a moderate future development of energy prices. In contrast to scenarios with stochastic investment costs for a limited number of technologies, the inclusion of stochastic energy prices directly affects all parts of the energy system. Robust elements of hedging strategies include increasing utilization of domestic energy carriers, the use of CHP and district heat and the application of additional energy-saving measures in the end-use sectors. Region-specific technology portfolios, i.e., different hedging options, can cause growing energy exchange between the regions in comparison with the deterministic case. (author)

  12. Long-term affected energy production of waste to energy technologies identified by use of energy system analysis.

    Münster, M; Meibom, P

    2010-12-01

    Affected energy production is often decisive for the outcome of consequential life-cycle assessments when comparing the potential environmental impact of products or services. Affected energy production is however difficult to determine. In this article the future long-term affected energy production is identified by use of energy system analysis. The focus is on different uses of waste for energy production. The Waste-to-Energy technologies analysed include co-combustion of coal and waste, anaerobic digestion and thermal gasification. The analysis is based on optimization of both investments and production of electricity, district heating and bio-fuel in a future possible energy system in 2025 in the countries of the Northern European electricity market (Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland and Germany). Scenarios with different CO(2) quota costs are analysed. It is demonstrated that the waste incineration continues to treat the largest amount of waste. Investments in new waste incineration capacity may, however, be superseded by investments in new Waste-to-Energy technologies, particularly those utilising sorted fractions such as organic waste and refuse derived fuel. The changed use of waste proves to always affect a combination of technologies. What is affected varies among the different Waste-to-Energy technologies and is furthermore dependent on the CO(2) quota costs and on the geographical scope. The necessity for investments in flexibility measures varies with the different technologies such as storage of heat and waste as well as expansion of district heating networks. Finally, inflexible technologies such as nuclear power plants are shown to be affected. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Long Term Fuel Sustainable Fission Energy Perspective Relevant for Combating Climate Change

    Knapp, V.; Matijevic, M.; Pevec, D.; Crnobrnja, B.; Lale, D.

    2016-01-01

    In recent research we outlined climate relevant and immediately available proven light water nuclear strategy with a potential to contribute essentially and timely to reduction of carbon dioxide emission to the year 2065. We consider in this paper what is the perspective of fission energy after that year should its contribution be needed. Singling out two technologies with long term perspective which need no or small amounts of uranium, fast breeders and molten salt thorium reactors, we consider their main technical and safety characteristics. In both of these technologies it is essential to have starter nuclides as neither U238 nor Th232 are fissile. We investigated whether plutonium from spent fuel of light water reactors generated to the year 2065 would be present in quantities sufficient to continue operation on the same or similar level in both technologies. However in operational safety, proliferation risks, waste production, in our judgement we must give preference to thorium technology, if it would be ready in second half of the century.(author).

  14. Analysis on Japan's long-term energy outlook considering massive deployment of variable renewable energy under nuclear energy scenario

    Komiyama, Ryoichi; Fujii, Yasumasa

    2012-01-01

    This paper investigates Japan's long-term energy outlook to 2050 considering massive deployment of solar photovoltaic (PV) system and wind power generation under nuclear energy scenario. The extensive introduction of PV system and wind power system are expected to play an important role in enhancing electricity supply security after Fukushima Nuclear Power Accident which has increased the uncertainty of future additional construction of nuclear power plant in Japan. On these backgrounds, we develop integrated energy assessment model comprised of both econometric energy demand and supply model and optimal power generation mix model. The latter model is able to explicitly analyze the impact of output fluctuation in variable renewable in detailed time resolution at 10 minutes on consecutive 365 days, incorporating the role of stationary battery technology. Simulation results reveal that intermittent fluctuation derived from high penetration level of those renewables is controlled by quick load following operation by natural gas combined cycle power plant, pumped-storage hydro power, stationary battery technology and the output suppression of PV and wind power. The results show as well that massive penetration of the renewables does not necessarily require the comparable scale of stationary battery capacity. Additionally, on the scenario which assumes the decommissioning of nuclear power plants which lifetime are over 40 years, required PV capacity in 2050 amounts to more than double of PV installment potential in both building and abandoned farmland area. (author)

  15. Advice on a long-term strategy on energy and climate change

    2006-06-01

    A study was conducted to examine how climate change would affect Canada's economy and environment, with a focus on what a low carbon future might look like for Canada over the next 45 years. Two questions formed the basis of this research that examined how Canada can protect and enhance its national interest with regard to energy and climate change issues between now and the mid-twenty first century and what Canada currently needs to do in order to achieve this. A scenario was developed as part of this study in order to demonstrate one way in which Canada can achieve a significant reduction in energy related GHG emissions by 2050. For illustrative purposes, it was necessary to have a quantifiable definition of what a significant reduction would look like, and therefore, it was decided that a long-term domestic reduction of energy-related GHG emissions by 60 per cent by 2050 would be used as it is roughly consistent with similar targets adopted or being considered by other OECD countries. The scope of this analysis covered energy-related GHG emissions such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide that result from the production and consumption of fossil fuels. The paper provided a summary of key findings from the study and discussed Canada's unique environmental challenges. Study characteristics, scope of the analysis and assumptions were also identified. A 60 per cent GHG reduction wedge diagram was provided to illustrate the scenario under consideration. Strategic priorities were also presented identifying where transformations will need to occur. These priorities include energy efficiency improvements, carbon capture and sequestration in the oil and gas sector, and electricity generation. The paper also provided several conclusions and next steps. One of the principal conclusions was that there can be a domestic solution to making significant GHG reductions by mid-century, but significant reductions can be achieved only if energy is used more efficiently and

  16. Perspectives on long-term Eurasian energy supply: the role of the energy charter

    Kemper, R.

    2004-01-01

    This paper examines Croatian energy outlook in the broader 'Eurasian' context, taking into consideration the prospect of increasing energy import dependency in Western and Central Europe, and assesses the contribution that multilateral instruments, such as the Energy Charter Treaty, can make in promoting security of supply.(author)

  17. A comparative study of long-term energy demand and potential greenhouse gas emission control in Bangladesh

    Khalaquazzaman, Mohammad

    2005-02-01

    This report presents a comparative study of long-term energy demand and potential greenhouse gas emissions projections from energy demand and supply sectors in Bangladesh covering the period 2000 to 2020. The study was conducted employing the IAEA's tool ENPEP- BALANCE model. This study presents a reliable energy system plan with minimal carbon emission for the country. Primary energy demands distributed by energy carriers and electricity demand have been projected based on macro-economic growth scenarios constructed for national energy policy of 1996. The conservation of indigenous energy resources was emphasized to build a long-term secured energy supply system. The potential energy supply options including nuclear energy and prospective greenhouse gas mitigation options were analyzed

  18. Zero emission targets as long-term global goals for climate protection

    Rogelj, Joeri; Schaeffer, M.; Meinshausen, M.; Knutti, R.

    2015-01-01

    Recently, assessments have robustly linked stabilization of global-mean temperature rise to the necessity of limiting the total amount of emitted carbon-dioxide (CO2). Halting global warming thus requires virtually zero annual CO2 emissions at some point. Policymakers have now incorporated this

  19. Studies of global warming and global energy

    Inaba, Atsushi

    1993-01-01

    Global warming caused by increase in atmospheric CO 2 concentration has been the focus of many recent global energy studies. CO 2 is emitted to the atmosphere mainly from the combustion of fossil fuels. This means that global warming is fundamentally a problem of the global energy system. An analysis of the findings of recent global energy studies is made in this report. The results are categorized from the viewpoint of concern about global warming. The analysis includes energy use and CO 2 emissions, measures taken to restrain CO 2 emissions and the cost of such measure, and suggestions for long term global energy generation. Following this comparative analysis, each of the studies is reviewed in detail. (author) 63 refs

  20. The Fukushima Nuclear Accident and a Long-Term Energy Vision for Japan

    Yuhara, Tetsuo

    2012-04-01

    Ifri and the Canon Institute for Global Studies are launching a series of policy papers presenting the analyses of senior Japanese researchers on how the triple disasters that hit the archipelago last March have impacted Japan's economic, environmental and energy policies as well as country's crisis management system. This paper presents the author's opinion regarding the media coverage of the Fukushima accident and the consequences of this serious accident for the Japanese energy policy

  1. The hydrogen energy economy: its long-term role in greenhouse gas reduction

    Geoff Dutton; Abigail Bristow; Matthew Page; Charlotte Kelly; Jim Watson; Alison Tetteh [CCLRC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Didcot (United Kingdom). Energy Research Unit (ERU)

    2005-01-15

    The potential contribution and viability of the hydrogen energy economy towards reducing UK carbon dioxide emissions in the time horizon to 2050 has been assessed using a quantitative model of the UK energy system in the context of a set of diverse socio-economic scenarios. It is argued that different sets of prevailing circumstances are likely to result in very different opportunities for hydrogen and hence very different transition pathways and ultimate penetration levels. The decision on whether to strategically encourage a transition to the hydrogen economy and the ultimate environmental benefits of such a transformation will depend on the outcome of a number of important political and social decisions. These include the acceptability of large scale carbon dioxide sequestration (hydrogen derived from fossil fuels), decisions about land-use (hydrogen from biomass), a possible doubling (or more) of the current electricity production capacity with a high penetration of renewable electricity (hydrogen from electrolysis of water), and/or the public acceptability of a large scale nuclear renaissance (hydrogen from electrolysis of water or from thermo-chemical cycles). Any rapid transition to a fully developed hydrogen economy would require a contribution from at least some and possibly all of these sources. Such a transition could result in a marked decrease in carbon dioxide emissions over the long term, but might even result in increased emissions within the shorter term (due to the initial use of hydrogen derived from fossil fuels without carbon dioxide sequestration or from the bulk grid electricity supply resulting in increased load factors and lifetimes of old fossil-fired power plant to meet the increased overall demand). 47 refs., 45 figs., 19 tabs., 3 apps.

  2. CO2 emissions from developing countries: Better understanding the role of energy in the long term

    Sathaye, J.; Goldman, N.

    1991-07-01

    Recent years have witnessed a growing recognition of the link between emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and changes in the global climate. of all anthropogenic activities, energy production and use generate the single largest portion of these greenhouse gases. Although developing countries currently account for a small share of global carbon emissions, their contribution is increasing rapidly. Due to the rapid expansion of energy demand in these nations, the developing world's share in global modern energy use rose from 16 to 27 percent between 1970 and 1990. If the growth rates observed over the past 20 years persist, energy demand in developing nations will surpass that in the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) early in the 21st century. The study seeks to examine the forces that galvanize the growth of energy use and carbon emissions, to assess the likely future levels of energy and CO 2 in selected developing nations and to identify opportunities for restraining this growth. The purpose of this report is to provide the quantitative information needed to develop effective policy options, not to identify the options themselves. A combined study was carried out for the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates)

  3. CO2 emissions from developing countries: Better understanding the role of energy in the long term

    Sathaye, J.; Goldman, N.

    1991-07-01

    Recent years have witnessed a growing recognition of the link between emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and changes in the global climate. Of all anthropogenic activities, energy production and use generate the single largest portion of these greenhouse gases. Although developing countries currently account for a small share of global carbon emissions, their contribution is increasing rapidly. Due to the rapid expansion of energy demand in these nations, the developing world's share in global modern energy use rose from 16 to 27 percent between 1970 and 1990. If the growth rates observed over the past 20 years persist, energy demand in developing nations will surpass that in the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) early in the 21st century. The study seeks to examine the forces that galvanize the growth of energy use and carbon emissions, to assess the likely future levels of energy and Co 2 in selected developing nations and to identify opportunities for restraining this growth. The purpose of this report is to provide the quantitative information needed to develop effective policy options, not to identify the options themselves. These individual studies were conducted for China, India, Indonesia and South Korea in Asia

  4. CO2 emissions from developing countries: Better understanding the role of Energy in the long term

    Ketoff, A.; Sathaye, J.; Goldman, N.

    1991-07-01

    Recent years have witnessed a growing recognition of the link between emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and changes in the global climate. Of all anthropogenic activities, energy production and use generate the single largest portion of these greenhouse gases. Although developing countries currently account for a small share of global carbon emissions, their contribution is increasing rapidly. Due to the rapid expansion of energy demand in these nations, the developing world's share in global modern energy use rose from 16 to 27 percent between 1970 and 1990. If the growth rates observed over the past 20 years persist energy demand in developing will surpass that in the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) early in the 21st century. The study seeks to examine the forces that galvanize the growth of energy use and carbon emissions, to assess the likely future levels of energy and CO 2 in selected developing nations and to identify opportunities for restraining this growth. The purpose of this report is to provide the quantitative information needed to develop effective policy options, not to identify the options themselves. These individual studies were conducted fro Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and Venezuela in Latin America

  5. Nuclear power: renaissance or relapse? Global climate change and long-term Three Mile Island activists' narratives.

    Culley, Marci R; Angelique, Holly

    2010-06-01

    Community narratives are increasingly important as people move towards an ecologically sustainable society. Global climate change is a multi-faceted problem with multiple stakeholders. The voices of affected communities must be heard as we make decisions of global significance. We document the narratives of long-term anti-nuclear activists near the Three Mile Island (TMI) nuclear power plant who speak out in the dawn of a nuclear renaissance/relapse. While nuclear power is marketed as a "green" solution to global warming, their narratives reveal three areas for consideration; (1) significant problems with nuclear technology, (2) lessons "not" learned from the TMI disaster, and (3) hopes for a sustainable future. Nuclear waste, untrustworthy officials and economic issues were among the problems cited. Deceptive shaping of public opinion, nuclear illiteracy, and an aging anti-nuclear movement were reasons cited for the lessons not learned. However, many remain optimistic and envision increased participation to create an ecologically-balanced world.

  6. Business Organisational Structures of Global Companies: Use of the Territorial Model to Ensure Long-Term Growth

    Hana Stverkova

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available In today’s turbulently expanding business environment, during the fourth industrial revolution, it is necessary to respond to market trends and to adapt strategy and organisational structure appropriately. The article is focused on the reorganisation and optimisation of the business organisation structure of global companies. The purpose of this paper is to analyse and evaluate the use of the territorial business structure, within the framework of a global company, based on experimental research. Experiences with the introduction of a territorial organisational structure in a corporate enterprise have proven to be highly effective long-term, with productivity and sales volumes increasing. This territorial setting can be considered as a competitive advantage, which matches predicted market trends and is suitable for global businesses.

  7. Results of the long-term agreements on energy efficiency. Results 2011; Resultatenbrochure convenanten Meerjarenafspraken energie-efficientie 2011

    NONE

    2012-09-15

    The Dutch long-term agreement on Energy Efficiency with various sectors of the industry, the food and beverages industry and the services sector is a covenant aimed at enhancing energy efficiency among medium-sized enterprises. Participants in the covenant include businesses, the Dutch government and the Competent Authority Environmental Protection Act. Participation of businesses means that they must make energy efficiency plans, take measures and deliver annual results for monitoring. In this report the results of 2011 are presented [Dutch] De Meerjarenafspraken Energie-Efficientie met verschillende sectoren uit de industrie, de voedings- en genotmiddelenindustrie en de dienstensector, is een convenant gericht op het bevorderen van de energie-efficientie bij middelgrote bedrijven. Deelnemers aan het convenant zijn de bedrijven, de Rijksoverheid en het Bevoegd Gezag Wet Milieubeheer. Voor bedrijven betekent deelname dat zij energiebesparingplannen maken, maatregelen nemen en dat zij jaarlijks de resultaten hiervan aanleveren voor de monitoring. In dit rapport worden de resultaten van 2011 gepresenteerd.

  8. Modeling and analysis of long-term energy scenarios for sustainable strategies of Ethiopia

    Senshaw, Dereje Azemraw

    2014-04-15

    Despite robust economic growth, Ethiopia is one of the countries with poor energy accesses. Contributing factors are poor availability of energy, unreliable and insufficient quality of energy, and insufficient policy. Recognizing that energy access and security are indispensable to economic transformation, Ethiopia needs to cope with key challenges related to energy security, climate change mitigation and also diversification of energy supply. In order to achieve these targets and strive towards sustainable energy for all, Ethiopia's energy system requires a major transformation. The main achievement of this research has been the development of alternative energy options under different conditions for Ethiopia up to 2050. To identify an energy pathway that would meet Ethiopia's energy needs in a sustainable manner, three scenarios are considered: the business-as usual (BAU), moderate shift (Scenario1) and the advanced shift scenario (Scenario 2). The scenarios were developed, quantified and analyzed using a bottom-up model for Long Term Alternative Energy Planning (LEAP). These scenarios represent a range of energy policy measures that Ethiopia could adopt to achieve its sustainable development goals. The BAU scenario reflects a continuation of the current policy trend and considers on economic growth rate of 7%, while Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 represent moderate and advanced levels of commitment in economic growth, energy diversity and reduction of energy import dependency and CO{sub 2} emissions limits, respectively. The scenario analysis shows that the primary energy requirements for Ethiopia's socio-economic development will increase sharply over the period (2010-2050) in all three scenarios. BAU, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 show an expected to growth at annual rates of 4.1, 4.9 and 5.7% respectively. If the current policy trends (as represented by BAU) continue, the total energy demand in Ethiopia is expected to reach 6,553 Petajoule (PJ) by 2050

  9. Modeling and analysis of long-term energy scenarios for sustainable strategies of Ethiopia

    Senshaw, Dereje Azemraw

    2014-04-01

    Despite robust economic growth, Ethiopia is one of the countries with poor energy accesses. Contributing factors are poor availability of energy, unreliable and insufficient quality of energy, and insufficient policy. Recognizing that energy access and security are indispensable to economic transformation, Ethiopia needs to cope with key challenges related to energy security, climate change mitigation and also diversification of energy supply. In order to achieve these targets and strive towards sustainable energy for all, Ethiopia's energy system requires a major transformation. The main achievement of this research has been the development of alternative energy options under different conditions for Ethiopia up to 2050. To identify an energy pathway that would meet Ethiopia's energy needs in a sustainable manner, three scenarios are considered: the business-as usual (BAU), moderate shift (Scenario1) and the advanced shift scenario (Scenario 2). The scenarios were developed, quantified and analyzed using a bottom-up model for Long Term Alternative Energy Planning (LEAP). These scenarios represent a range of energy policy measures that Ethiopia could adopt to achieve its sustainable development goals. The BAU scenario reflects a continuation of the current policy trend and considers on economic growth rate of 7%, while Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 represent moderate and advanced levels of commitment in economic growth, energy diversity and reduction of energy import dependency and CO 2 emissions limits, respectively. The scenario analysis shows that the primary energy requirements for Ethiopia's socio-economic development will increase sharply over the period (2010-2050) in all three scenarios. BAU, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 show an expected to growth at annual rates of 4.1, 4.9 and 5.7% respectively. If the current policy trends (as represented by BAU) continue, the total energy demand in Ethiopia is expected to reach 6,553 Petajoule (PJ) by 2050 from

  10. The Role of Nuclear Energy for Long-term National Energy Planning

    Soetrisnanto, Arnold Y; Adiwardojo; Soentono, Soedyartomo

    2001-01-01

    Energy planning development is a part of the sustainable development that supports the attainment of national development goals. The objective of the study is to support the national planning and decision-making process in the energy and electric sector in Indonesia with nuclear option for period of 1997- 2027. This study performs the provision of detailed economic sector and regional energy demand projection by MAED simulation model based on the economic and population scenarios. Then continued with the optimization of the future energy supply such as electricity supply taking all known Indonesian energy sources and all relevant technologies into consideration by MARKAL Model. The result shows that Indonesia's need for final energy is forecasted to increase two times, from 4,028.4 PJ at the beginning of study become 8,145.6 PJ at the end of study. The more the use of fossil fuels are tightened and enforced because of its environmental impact, the earlier the nuclear power becomes part of the optimum generation mix. In the case IEA1001 (reduction of 1% CO 2 emission), nuclear energy is needed in Jawa-Bali region in the earliest possibility i.e. year 2018 corresponding to 0.37 GW and it will increase in the next years

  11. Technological progress and long-term energy demand - a survey of recent approaches and a Danish case

    Klinge Jacobsen, Henrik

    2001-01-01

    This paper discusses di!erent approaches to incorporating technological progress in energy-economy models and the e!ecton long-term energy demand projections. Approaches to modelling based on an exogenous annual change of energy e$ciencyto an endogenous explanation of innovation for energy...... technologies are covered. Technological progress is an important issue for modelling long-term energy demand and is often characterised as the main contributor to the di!erent energy demand forecasts from di!erent models. New economic theoretical developments in the "elds of endogenous growth and industrial...... description, two models of residential energy demand in Denmark are compared. A Danish macroeconometric model is compared to a technological vintage model that is covering electric appliances and residential heating demand. The energy demand projection of the two models diverges, and the underlying...

  12. Applying Advances in GPM Radiometer Intercalibration and Algorithm Development to a Long-Term TRMM/GPM Global Precipitation Dataset

    Berg, W. K.

    2016-12-01

    The Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) Core Observatory, which was launched in February of 2014, provides a number of advances for satellite monitoring of precipitation including a dual-frequency radar, high frequency channels on the GPM Microwave Imager (GMI), and coverage over middle and high latitudes. The GPM concept, however, is about producing unified precipitation retrievals from a constellation of microwave radiometers to provide approximately 3-hourly global sampling. This involves intercalibration of the input brightness temperatures from the constellation radiometers, development of an apriori precipitation database using observations from the state-of-the-art GPM radiometer and radars, and accounting for sensor differences in the retrieval algorithm in a physically-consistent way. Efforts by the GPM inter-satellite calibration working group, or XCAL team, and the radiometer algorithm team to create unified precipitation retrievals from the GPM radiometer constellation were fully implemented into the current version 4 GPM precipitation products. These include precipitation estimates from a total of seven conical-scanning and six cross-track scanning radiometers as well as high spatial and temporal resolution global level 3 gridded products. Work is now underway to extend this unified constellation-based approach to the combined TRMM/GPM data record starting in late 1997. The goal is to create a long-term global precipitation dataset employing these state-of-the-art calibration and retrieval algorithm approaches. This new long-term global precipitation dataset will incorporate the physics provided by the combined GPM GMI and DPR sensors into the apriori database, extend prior TRMM constellation observations to high latitudes, and expand the available TRMM precipitation data to the full constellation of available conical and cross-track scanning radiometers. This combined TRMM/GPM precipitation data record will thus provide a high-quality high

  13. Long-Term Monitoring of Utility-Scale Solar Energy Development and Application of Remote Sensing Technologies: Summary Report

    Hamada, Yuki [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States). Environmental Science Division; Grippo, Mark A. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States). Environmental Science Division; Smith, Karen P. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States). Environmental Science Division

    2014-09-30

    In anticipation of increased utility-scale solar energy development over the next 20 to 50 years, federal agencies and other organizations have identified a need to develop comprehensive long-term monitoring programs specific to solar energy development. Increasingly, stakeholders are requesting that federal agencies, such as the U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Land Management (BLM), develop rigorous and comprehensive long-term monitoring programs. Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) is assisting the BLM in developing an effective long-term monitoring plan as required by the BLM Solar Energy Program to study the environmental effects of solar energy development. The monitoring data can be used to protect land resources from harmful development practices while at the same time reducing restrictions on utility-scale solar energy development that are determined to be unnecessary. The development of a long-term monitoring plan that incorporates regional datasets, prioritizes requirements in the context of landscape-scale conditions and trends, and integrates cost-effective data collection methods (such as remote sensing technologies) will translate into lower monitoring costs and increased certainty for solar developers regarding requirements for developing projects on public lands. This outcome will support U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Sunshot Program goals. For this reason, the DOE provided funding for the work presented in this report.

  14. Assessment of nuclear energy cost competitiveness against alternative energy sources in Romania envisaging the long-term national energy sustainability

    Margeanu, C. A.

    2016-01-01

    The paper includes some of the results obtained by RATEN ICN Pitesti experts in the IAEA.s Collaborative Project INPRO-SYNERGIES. The case study proposed to evaluate and analyze the nuclear capacity development and increasing of its share in the national energy sector, envisaging the long term national and regional energy sustainability by keeping collaboration options open for the future while bringing solutions to short/medium-term challenges. The following technologies, considered as future competing technologies for electric energy generation in Romania, were selected: nuclear technology (represented by PHWR CANDU Units 3 and 4 - CANDU new, advanced HWR - Adv. HWR, and advanced PWR - Adv. PWR) and, as alternative energy sources, classical technology (represented by Coal-fired power plant using lignite fossil fuel, with carbon capture - Coal_new, and Gas-fired power plant operating on combined cycle, with carbon capture - Gas_new). The study included assessment of specific economic indicators, sensitivity analyses being performed on Levelised Unit Energy Cost (LUEC) variation due to different perturbations (e.g. discount rate, overnight costs, etc). Robustness indices (RI) of LUEC were also calculated by considering simultaneous variation of input parameters for the considered power plants. The economic analyses have been performed by using the IAEA.s NEST program. The study results confirmed that in Romania, under the national specific conditions defined, electricity produced by nuclear power plants is cost competitive against coal and gas fired power plants electricity. The highest impact of considered perturbations on LUEC has been observed for capital intensive technologies (nuclear technologies) comparatively with the classic power plants, especially for discount rate changes. (authors)

  15. Long-term energy output estimation for photovoltaic energy systems using synthetic solar irradiation data

    Celik, A.N.

    2003-01-01

    A general methodology is presented to estimate the monthly average daily energy output from photovoltaic energy systems. Energy output is estimated from synthetically generated solar radiation data. The synthetic solar radiation data are generated based on the cumulative frequency distribution of the daily clearness index, given as a function of the monthly clearness index. Two sets of synthetic solar irradiation data are generated: 3- and 4-day months. In the 3-day month, each month is represented by 3 days and in the 4-day month, by 4 days. The 3- and 4-day solar irradiation data are synthetically generated for each month and the corresponding energy outputs are calculated. A total of 8-year long measured hourly solar irradiation data, from five different locations in the world, is used to validate the new model. The monthly energy output values calculated from the synthetic solar irradiation data are compared to those calculated from the measured hour-by-hour data. It is shown that when the measured solar radiation data do not exist for a particular location or reduced data set is advantageous, the energy output from photovoltaic converters could be correctly calculated

  16. Reporting on Long-Term Value Creation—The Example of Public Canadian Energy and Mining Companies

    Petra F. A. Dilling

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This study empirically analyzes reporting on long-term value creation for Canadian public mining and energy companies. It represents an important first step in determining the quality of reporting and its determinants for large public companies. In this exploratory empirical study, a reporting quality scoring index was developed to measure disclosure quality of long-term value creation reporting. Content analysis was used to examine financial and sustainability reports for a sample of twenty Canadian public mining and energy companies. Corporate disclosure quality scores were then calculated by assessing the quality of reporting in four main categories. The findings suggest that overall disclosure quality on long-term value creation is still low. Companies disclosing higher quality information on long-term value creation are of bigger size, operate in the basic materials sector, have an independent board, are listed in the Dow Jones Sustainability Index, experience higher stock volatility and use more words related to long-term value creation in their annual financial and non-financial reports. In order to increase and restore stakeholder trust and credibility as well as a tool to maintain stability, it is strongly recommended to introduce adequate mandatory standardization resulting in a set of internationally recognized reporting standards as well as a requirement for external assurance of reports.

  17. Long term electricity expansion analysis to define energy policies for Mexico

    Martin del Campo, C.; Guadarrama, R.; Sanchez, O.; Francois, J. L.; Estrada, G.; Izarra, J.; Perez, A.

    2010-10-01

    A new multi-criteria decision making process based on regret behavior is described. The name we gave it is position vector of minimum regret. A reference which combines the best values of all the criteria is created and positioned in the center of the coordinates of the n-dimensional space; n being the number of criteria. Every alternative is represented by a vector and the magnitude of the position vector is the minimum distance to the reference. The smaller the magnitude of the position vector, the better the corresponding alternative, given that we are looking for the minimum regret. Different weights can be assigned to the criteria. The position vector of minimum regret was applied to the long term electricity expansion planning for Mexico. The study evaluates four parameters: the total generating cost obtained from the objective function after the WASP-IV optimization, the economic risk associated with fuel prices increases, the diversity of fuels participating in the mix of electricity generation, and the external costs associated with health and environmental impacts. The WASP-IV code was used for finding the optimal expansion plan for the Mexican power generating system over the 2008 to 2030 period, under certain restrictions. We decided to study a base case and four additional expansion cases, which are similar to the base case, but each does not consider a certain candidate technology which uses a particular fuel. The reason of studying these five contrasting cases is to quantify the impact, on the evaluation parameters, when a particular fuel is omitted in the expansion plan, and this is very useful for the definition of energy polices concerning diversification by means of nuclear and other CO 2 free options in the mix. The base case is plan A which considers six candidates for expanding the generation system. Plan B does not consider coal, plan C does not consider oil, plan D excludes nuclear energy, and plan E natural gas. After the decision analysis

  18. Long-term costs and health impact of continued global fund support for antiretroviral therapy

    J. Stover (John); E.L. Korenromp (Eline); M. Blakley (Matthew); R. Komatsu (Ryuichi); K.M. Viisainen (Kirsi); L. Bollinger (Lori); R. Atun (Rifat)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractBackground: By the end of 2011 Global Fund investments will be supporting 3.5 million people on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in 104 low- and middle-income countries. We estimated the cost and health impact of continuing treatment for these patients through 2020. Methods and Findings:

  19. Global temperature definition affects achievement of long-term climate goals

    Richardson, Mark; Cowtan, Kevin; Millar, Richard J.

    2018-05-01

    The Paris Agreement on climate change aims to limit ‘global average temperature’ rise to ‘well below 2 °C’ but reported temperature depends on choices about how to blend air and water temperature data, handle changes in sea ice and account for regions with missing data. Here we use CMIP5 climate model simulations to estimate how these choices affect reported warming and carbon budgets consistent with the Paris Agreement. By the 2090s, under a low-emissions scenario, modelled global near-surface air temperature rise is 15% higher (5%–95% range 6%–21%) than that estimated by an approach similar to the HadCRUT4 observational record. The difference reduces to 8% with global data coverage, or 4% with additional removal of a bias associated with changing sea-ice cover. Comparison of observational datasets with different data sources or infilling techniques supports our model results regarding incomplete coverage. From high-emission simulations, we find that a HadCRUT4 like definition means higher carbon budgets and later exceedance of temperature thresholds, relative to global near-surface air temperature. 2 °C warming is delayed by seven years on average, to 2048 (2035–2060), and CO2 emissions budget for a >50% chance of <2 °C warming increases by 67 GtC (246 GtCO2).

  20. Long term, non-anthropogenic groundwater storage changes simulated by a global land surface model

    Li, B.; Rodell, M.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.

    2017-12-01

    Groundwater is crucial for meeting agricultural, industrial and municipal water needs, especially in arid, semi-arid and drought impacted regions. Yet, knowledge on groundwater response to climate variability is not well understood due to lack of systematic and continuous in situ measurements. In this study, we investigate global non-anthropogenic groundwater storage variations with a land surface model driven by a 67-year (1948-204) meteorological forcing data set. Model estimates were evaluated using in situ groundwater data from the central and northeastern U.S. and terrestrial water storage derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites and found to be reasonable. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was employed to examine modes of variability of groundwater storage and their relationship with atmospheric effects such as precipitation and evapotranspiration. The result shows that the leading mode in global groundwater storage reflects the influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Consistent with the EOF analysis, global total groundwater storage reflected the low frequency variability of ENSO and decreased significantly over 1948-2014 while global ET and precipitation did not exhibit statistically significant trends. This study suggests that while precipitation and ET are the primary drivers of climate related groundwater variability, changes in other forcing fields than precipitation and temperature are also important because of their influence on ET. We discuss the need to improve model physics and to continuously validate model estimates and forcing data for future studies.

  1. Nuclear energy and ensuring the long-term energy supply in the German Federal Republic

    Koenig, H.H.

    1975-01-01

    The author reports on the papers read at the Reactor Conference in 1975. He pays special attention to the development of energy supply from nuclear stations, investigates the motives behind the growing resistance of the public, and shows that the acceptance procedure ensures the construction and operation of safe nuclear power installations. He also discusses the possibilities of improved energy utilisation, the climatic changes in coming generations, the characteristics of supply with nuclear district heating and process heat, as well as the state of building projects with high-temperature reactors and fast breeders. (orig.) [de

  2. Comparing projections of industrial energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions in long-term energy models

    Edelenbosch, O. Y.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/412493373; Kermeli, K.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/411260553; Crijns-Graus, W.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/308005015; Worrell, E.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/106856715; Bibas, R.; Fais, B.; Fujimori, S.; Kyle, P.; Sano, F.; van Vuuren, Detlef|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X

    2017-01-01

    The industry sector is a major energy consumer and GHG emitter. Effective climate change mitigation strategies will require a significant reduction of industrial emissions. To better understand the variations in the projected industrial pathways for both baseline and mitigation scenarios, we compare

  3. Regional Analysis of Long-term Local and Synoptic Effects on Wind Velocity and Energy Patterns in Complex Terrain

    Belu, R.; Koracin, D. R.

    2017-12-01

    Investments in renewable energy are justified in both environmental and economic terms. Climate change risks call for mitigation strategies aimed to reduce pollutant emissions, while the energy supply is facing high uncertainty by the current or future global economic and political contexts. Wind energy is playing a strategic role in the efforts of any country for sustainable development and energy supply security. Wind energy is a weather and climate-dependent resource, having a natural spatio-temporal variability at time scales ranging from fraction of seconds to seasons and years, while at spatial scales is strongly affected by the topography and vegetation. Main objective of the study is to investigate spatio-temporal characteristics of the wind velocity in the Southwest U.S., that are relevant to wind energy assessment, analysis, development, operation, and grid integration, by using long-term multiple meteorological tower observations. Wind velocity data and other meteorological parameters from five towers, located near Tonopah, Nevada, operated between 2003 to 2008, and from three towers are located in Carson Valley, Nevada, operated between 2006 and 2014 were used in this study. Multi-annual wind speed data collected did not show significant increase trends with increasing elevation; the differences are mainly governed by the topographic complexity, including local atmospheric circulations. Auto- and cross-correlations show a strong coherence between the wind speed and direction with slowly decreasing amplitude of the multi-day periodicity with increasing lag periods. Besides pronounced diurnal periodicity at all locations, detrended fluctuation analysis also showed significant seasonal and annual periodicities, and long-memory persistence with similar characteristics. In spite of significant differences in mean wind speeds among the towers, due to location specifics, the relatively high auto- and cross-correlation coefficients among the towers indicate

  4. Global energy / CO2 projections

    Sinyak, Y.

    1990-09-01

    Section headings are: (1) Social and economic problems of the 21 st century and the role of energy supply systems (2) Energy-environment interactions as a central point of energy research activities (3) New ways of technological progress and its impacts on energy demand and supply (4) Long-term global energy projections (5) Comparative analysis of global long-term energy / CO 2 studies (6) Conclusions. The author shows that, in order to alleviate the negative impacts of energy systems on the climate, it will be necessary to undertake tremendous efforts to improve the energy use efficiency, to drastically change the primary energy mix, and, at the same time, to take action to reduce greenhouse emissions from other sources and increase the CO 2 sink through enhanced reforestation. (Quittner)

  5. Ontario's long-term energy plan, building our clean energy future

    2010-01-01

    The first energy priority of the plan is to provide all Ontarians with a clean, modern and reliable electricity system. It gives a summary of the means implemented to help families and businesses with increasing electricity costs. The plan is to shift the province from a coal-dependent system. Over the next 20 years, 15,000 MW (megawatt) of generating capacity will have to be rebuilt or constructed to replace older Ontario's energy infrastructures. In Ontario, an increase of about 3.5% per year in residential prices, resulting from the need to enjoy clean air, reliable generation and modernized transmission, is expected to occur over the next two decades. The expected electricity needs in Ontario and efficient means to satisfy them are described in this plan.

  6. A heuristic evaluation of long-term global sea level acceleration

    Spada, Giorgio; Olivieri, Marco; Galassi, Gaia

    2015-05-01

    In view of the scientific and social implications, the global mean sea level rise (GMSLR) and its possible causes and future trend have been a challenge for so long. For the twentieth century, reconstructions generally indicate a rate of GMSLR in the range of 1.5 to 2.0 mm yr-1. However, the existence of nonlinear trends is still debated, and current estimates of the secular acceleration are subject to ample uncertainties. Here we use various GMSLR estimates published on scholarly journals since the 1940s for a heuristic assessment of global sea level acceleration. The approach, alternative to sea level reconstructions, is based on simple statistical methods and exploits the principles of meta-analysis. Our results point to a global sea level acceleration of 0.54 ± 0.27 mm/yr/century (1σ) between 1898 and 1975. This supports independent estimates and suggests that a sea level acceleration since the early 1900s is more likely than currently believed.

  7. Long-term decline of global atmospheric ethane concentrations and implications for methane.

    Simpson, Isobel J; Sulbaek Andersen, Mads P; Meinardi, Simone; Bruhwiler, Lori; Blake, Nicola J; Helmig, Detlev; Rowland, F Sherwood; Blake, Donald R

    2012-08-23

    After methane, ethane is the most abundant hydrocarbon in the remote atmosphere. It is a precursor to tropospheric ozone and it influences the atmosphere's oxidative capacity through its reaction with the hydroxyl radical, ethane's primary atmospheric sink. Here we present the longest continuous record of global atmospheric ethane levels. We show that global ethane emission rates decreased from 14.3 to 11.3 teragrams per year, or by 21 per cent, from 1984 to 2010. We attribute this to decreasing fugitive emissions from ethane's fossil fuel source--most probably decreased venting and flaring of natural gas in oil fields--rather than a decline in its other major sources, biofuel use and biomass burning. Ethane's major emission sources are shared with methane, and recent studies have disagreed on whether reduced fossil fuel or microbial emissions have caused methane's atmospheric growth rate to slow. Our findings suggest that reduced fugitive fossil fuel emissions account for at least 10-21 teragrams per year (30-70 per cent) of the decrease in methane's global emissions, significantly contributing to methane's slowing atmospheric growth rate since the mid-1980s.

  8. A probabilistic assessment of large scale wind power development for long-term energy resource planning

    Kennedy, Scott Warren

    contribution by synthesizing information from research in power market economics, power system reliability, and environmental impact assessment, to develop a comprehensive methodology for analyzing wind power in the context of long-term energy planning.

  9. The Tasse concept (thorium based accelerator driven system with simplified fuel cycle for long term energy production)

    Berthou, V.; Slessarev, I.; Salvatores, M.

    2001-01-01

    Within the framework of the nuclear waste management studies, the ''one-component''. concept has to be considered as an attractive option in the long-term perspective. This paper proposes a new system called TASSE (''Thorium based Accelerator driven System with Simplified fuel cycle for long term Energy production''.), destined to the current French park renewal. The main idea of the TASSE concept is to simplify both the front and the back end of the fuel cycle, and his major goals are to provide electricity with low waste production, and with an economical competitiveness. (author)

  10. A retrospective investigation of energy efficiency standards: policies may have accelerated long term declines in appliance costs

    Van Buskirk, R D; Kantner, C L S; Gerke, B F; Chu, S

    2014-01-01

    We perform a retrospective investigation of multi-decade trends in price and life-cycle cost (LCC) for home appliances in periods with and without energy efficiency (EE) standards and labeling polices. In contrast to the classical picture of the impact of efficiency standards, the introduction and updating of appliance standards is not associated with a long-term increase in purchase price; rather, quality-adjusted prices undergo a continued or accelerated long-term decline. In addition, long term trends in appliance LCCs—which include operating costs—consistently show an accelerated long term decline with EE policies. We also show that the incremental price of efficiency improvements has declined faster than the baseline product price for selected products. These observations are inconsistent with a view of EE standards that supposes a perfectly competitive market with static supply costs. These results suggest that EE policies may be associated with other forces at play, such as innovation and learning-by-doing in appliance production and design, that can affect long term trends in quality-adjusted prices and LCCs. (letter)

  11. Nuclear energy in medium and long term energy generation of Turkey

    Sarici, L. E.; Yilmaz, S.; Guray, B. S.

    2001-01-01

    In this study; objectives and activities of Nuclear Power Plants Department and Turkish Electricity Generation and Transmission Corporation is briefly mentioned. A brief history of electricity generation, development of Turkish electrical energy sector and development of the installed capacity of country is presented. The history and future perspectives of AKZuyu Nuclear Power Plant Project is sharply outlined. In the light of the current situation in electricity generation and demand projections, importance of nuclear power among the other future electricity generation alternatives of Turkey is underlined

  12. Energy Harvesting by Subcutaneous Solar Cells: A Long-Term Study on Achievable Energy Output.

    Bereuter, L; Williner, S; Pianezzi, F; Bissig, B; Buecheler, S; Burger, J; Vogel, R; Zurbuchen, A; Haeberlin, A

    2017-05-01

    Active electronic implants are powered by primary batteries, which induces the necessity of implant replacement after battery depletion. This causes repeated interventions in a patients' life, which bears the risk of complications and is costly. By using energy harvesting devices to power the implant, device replacements may be avoided and the device size may be reduced dramatically. Recently, several groups presented prototypes of implants powered by subcutaneous solar cells. However, data about the expected real-life power output of subcutaneously implanted solar cells was lacking so far. In this study, we report the first real-life validation data of energy harvesting by subcutaneous solar cells. Portable light measurement devices that feature solar cells (cell area = 3.6 cm 2 ) and continuously measure a subcutaneous solar cell's output power were built. The measurement devices were worn by volunteers in their daily routine in summer, autumn and winter. In addition to the measured output power, influences such as season, weather and human activity were analyzed. The obtained mean power over the whole study period was 67 µW (=19 µW cm -2 ), which is sufficient to power e.g. a cardiac pacemaker.

  13. Ecological consequences of human niche construction: Examining long-term anthropogenic shaping of global species distributions.

    Boivin, Nicole L; Zeder, Melinda A; Fuller, Dorian Q; Crowther, Alison; Larson, Greger; Erlandson, Jon M; Denham, Tim; Petraglia, Michael D

    2016-06-07

    The exhibition of increasingly intensive and complex niche construction behaviors through time is a key feature of human evolution, culminating in the advanced capacity for ecosystem engineering exhibited by Homo sapiens A crucial outcome of such behaviors has been the dramatic reshaping of the global biosphere, a transformation whose early origins are increasingly apparent from cumulative archaeological and paleoecological datasets. Such data suggest that, by the Late Pleistocene, humans had begun to engage in activities that have led to alterations in the distributions of a vast array of species across most, if not all, taxonomic groups. Changes to biodiversity have included extinctions, extirpations, and shifts in species composition, diversity, and community structure. We outline key examples of these changes, highlighting findings from the study of new datasets, like ancient DNA (aDNA), stable isotopes, and microfossils, as well as the application of new statistical and computational methods to datasets that have accumulated significantly in recent decades. We focus on four major phases that witnessed broad anthropogenic alterations to biodiversity-the Late Pleistocene global human expansion, the Neolithic spread of agriculture, the era of island colonization, and the emergence of early urbanized societies and commercial networks. Archaeological evidence documents millennia of anthropogenic transformations that have created novel ecosystems around the world. This record has implications for ecological and evolutionary research, conservation strategies, and the maintenance of ecosystem services, pointing to a significant need for broader cross-disciplinary engagement between archaeology and the biological and environmental sciences.

  14. Long-term costs and health impact of continued global fund support for antiretroviral therapy.

    John Stover

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: By the end of 2011 Global Fund investments will be supporting 3.5 million people on antiretroviral therapy (ART in 104 low- and middle-income countries. We estimated the cost and health impact of continuing treatment for these patients through 2020. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Survival on first-line and second-line ART regimens is estimated based on annual retention rates reported by national AIDS programs. Costs per patient-year were calculated from country-reported ARV procurement prices, and expenditures on laboratory tests, health care utilization and end-of-life care from in-depth costing studies. Of the 3.5 million ART patients in 2011, 2.3 million will still need treatment in 2020. The annual cost of maintaining ART falls from $1.9 billion in 2011 to $1.7 billion in 2020, as a result of a declining number of surviving patients partially offset by increasing costs as more patients migrate to second-line therapy. The Global Fund is expected to continue being a major contributor to meeting this financial need, alongside other international funders and domestic resources. Costs would be $150 million less in 2020 with an annual 5% decline in first-line ARV prices and $150-370 million less with a 5%-12% annual decline in second-line prices, but $200 million higher in 2020 with phase out of stavudine (d4T, or $200 million higher with increased migration to second-line regimens expected if all countries routinely adopted viral load monitoring. Deaths postponed by ART correspond to 830,000 life-years saved in 2011, increasing to around 2.3 million life-years every year between 2015 and 2020. CONCLUSIONS: Annual patient-level direct costs of supporting a patient cohort remain fairly stable over 2011-2020, if current antiretroviral prices and delivery costs are maintained. Second-line antiretroviral prices are a major cost driver, underscoring the importance of investing in treatment quality to improve retention on first-line regimens.

  15. Long-term Global Morphology of Gravity Wave Activity Using UARS Data

    Eckermann, Stephen D.; Jackman, C. (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    This quarter was largely devoted to a detailed study of temperature data acquired by the Cryogenic Limb Array Etalon Spectrometer (CLAES) on UARS. Our analysis used the same sequence of methods that have been developed, tested and refined on a more limited subset of temperature data acquired by the CRISTA instrument. We focused on a limited subset of our reasoning that geographical and vertical trends in the small-scale temperature variability could be compared with similar trends observed in November 1994 by the CRISTA-SPAS satellite. Results, backed up with hindcasts from the Mountain Wave Forecast Model (MWFM), reveal strong evidence of mountain waves, most persuasively in the Himalayas on 16-17 November, 1992. These CLAES results are coherent over the 30-50 km range and compare well with MWFM hindcasts for the same period. This constitutes, we believe, the first clear evidence that CLAES explicitly resolved long wavelength gravity waves in its CO2 temperature channel. A series of other tasks, related to mesoscale modeling of mountain waves in CRISTA data and fitting of ground-based and HRDI data on global scales, were seen through to publication stage in peer-reviewed journals.

  16. The long term challenges of energy management: keeping all options open

    Moisan, F.

    2003-01-01

    Before the end of the 21. century, the global energy sector will need to face up to two challenges: climate warming due to greenhouse gas emissions and the increasing scarcity of traditional hydrocarbons. The likely scenarios expected by 2030 demonstrate that we are in the process of witnessing strong growth in the consumption of energy and in CO 2 emissions while at the same time climate experts warn us that we need to achieve a 75 % reduction of emissions in the industrialized nations by 2050. Several technological options may be envisaged in order to meet these challenges including a view generation nuclear power, renewable energy, the storage of carbon dioxide or managing energy consumption, and we need to keep all options open because none of these alone can solve all the problems. The time required for technologies to emerge following research and their penetration into the marketplace can often be several decades. The 2050 deadline is therefore not so at away and we need to stem and reverse the growth in demand from today onwards, something we should da without any misgivings when we consider the considerable uncertainties surrounding supply-side technologies. This profound transformation of our production and consumption methods also involves a change in our lifestyle and our behaviour: our efforts in the field of technological development must be accompanied by a commitment by all citizens to creating a more rational society where energy is concerned. (author)

  17. Novel effects of demand side management data on accuracy of electrical energy consumption modeling and long-term forecasting

    Ardakani, F.J.; Ardehali, M.M.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Novel effects of DSM data on electricity consumption forecasting is examined. • Optimal ANN models based on IPSO and SFL algorithms are developed. • Addition of DSM data to socio-economic indicators data reduces MAPE by 36%. - Abstract: Worldwide implementation of demand side management (DSM) programs has had positive impacts on electrical energy consumption (EEC) and the examination of their effects on long-term forecasting is warranted. The objective of this study is to investigate the effects of historical DSM data on accuracy of EEC modeling and long-term forecasting. To achieve the objective, optimal artificial neural network (ANN) models based on improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO) and shuffled frog-leaping (SFL) algorithms are developed for EEC forecasting. For long-term EEC modeling and forecasting for the U.S. for 2010–2030, two historical data types used in conjunction with developed models include (i) EEC and (ii) socio-economic indicators, namely, gross domestic product, energy imports, energy exports, and population for 1967–2009 period. Simulation results from IPSO-ANN and SFL-ANN models show that using socio-economic indicators as input data achieves lower mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for long-term EEC forecasting, as compared with EEC data. Based on IPSO-ANN, it is found that, for the U.S. EEC long-term forecasting, the addition of DSM data to socio-economic indicators data reduces MAPE by 36% and results in the estimated difference of 3592.8 MBOE (5849.9 TW h) in EEC for 2010–2030

  18. Long term energy demand projection and potential for energy savings of Croatian tourism–catering trade sector

    Irsag, Bojan; Pukšec, Tomislav; Duić, Neven

    2012-01-01

    Today, tourism represents one of the backbones of Croatian economy and one of the main factors of its growth. Combined with catering trade sector, tourism represents a significant energy consumer that has the tendencies of future growth. Since services sector, which tourism–catering trade sector is a part of, is not yet well described regarding future energy balances it would be very interesting to see how could possible future growth in tourism influence energy consumption of the services sector in Croatia. Through this paper long term energy demand projections of tourism–catering trade sector were studied with special emphasis on future growth of tourism in Croatia as well as different mechanisms that might lead to certain energy savings. Bottom-up approach was chosen as the most suitable one since it allows better quantification of different measures, technological or legal, that would influence future energy demand. Downside of this approach is extensive input data that is required to analyse and model future energy demand which is roughly divided into heating/cooling section and all other consumption. Results show that additional energy savings in the tourism–catering trade sector are possible if careful and rational demand side planning is in place. -- Highlights: ► Future energy demand of Croatian touristm–catering trade sector has been modelled. ► Model is roughly divided into two basic modes (heating/cooling and all other consumption). ► Different factors influencing future energy demand were implemented into the model. ► Possibilities for energy efficiency improvements have been presented.

  19. How consistent are global long-term satellite LAI products in terms of interannual variability and trend?

    Jiang, C.; Ryu, Y.; Fang, H.

    2016-12-01

    Proper usage of global satellite LAI products requires comprehensive evaluation. To address this issue, the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) Land Product Validation (LPV) subgroup proposed a four-stage validation hierarchy. During the past decade, great efforts have been made following this validation framework, mainly focused on absolute magnitude, seasonal trajectory, and spatial pattern of those global satellite LAI products. However, interannual variability and trends of global satellite LAI products have been investigated marginally. Targeting on this gap, we made an intercomparison between seven global satellite LAI datasets, including four short-term ones: MODIS C5, MODIS C6, GEOV1, MERIS, and three long-term products ones: LAI3g, GLASS, and GLOBMAP. We calculated global annual LAI time series for each dataset, among which we found substantial differences. During the overlapped period (2003 - 2011), MODIS C5, GLASS and GLOBMAP have positive correlation (r > 0.6) between each other, while MODIS C6, GEOV1, MERIS, and LAI3g are highly consistent (r > 0.7) in interannual variations. However, the previous three datasets show negative trends, all of which use MODIS C5 reflectance data, whereas the latter four show positive trends, using MODIS C6, SPOT/VGT, ENVISAT/MERIS, and NOAA/AVHRR, respectively. During the pre-MODIS era (1982 - 1999), the three AVHRR-based datasets (LAI3g, GLASS and GLOBMAP) agree well (r > 0.7), yet all of them show oscillation related with NOAA platform changes. In addition, both GLASS and GLOBMAP show clear cut-points around 2000 when they move from AVHRR to MODIS. Such inconsistency is also visible for GEOV1, which uses SPOT-4 and SPOT-5 before and after 2002. We further investigate the map-to-map deviations among these products. This study highlights that continuous sensor calibration and cross calibration are essential to obtain reliable global LAI time series.

  20. Technology learning for renewable energy: Implications for South Africa's long-term mitigation scenarios

    Winkler, Harald; Hughes, Alison; Haw, Mary

    2009-01-01

    Technology learning can make a significant difference to renewable energy as a mitigation option in South Africa's electricity sector. This article considers scenarios implemented in a Markal energy model used for mitigation analysis. It outlines the empirical evidence that unit costs of renewable energy technologies decline, considers the theoretical background and how this can be implemented in modeling. Two scenarios are modelled, assuming 27% and 50% of renewable electricity by 2050, respectively. The results show a dramatic shift in the mitigation costs. In the less ambitious scenario, instead of imposing a cost of Rand 52/t CO 2 -eq (at 10% discount rate), reduced costs due to technology learning turn renewables into negative cost option. Our results show that technology learning flips the costs, saving R143. At higher penetration rate, the incremental costs added beyond the base case decline from R92 per ton to R3. Including assumptions about technology learning turns renewable from a higher-cost mitigation option to one close to zero. We conclude that a future world in which global investment in renewables drives down unit costs makes it a much more cost-effective and sustainable mitigation option in South Africa.

  1. The relationship between energy intensity and income levels: Forecasting long term energy demand in Asian emerging countries

    Galli, R.; Univ. della Svizzera Italiana, Lugano

    1998-01-01

    This paper analyzes long-term trends in energy intensity for ten Asian emerging countries to test for a non-monotonic relationship between energy intensity and income in the author's sample. Energy demand functions are estimated during 1973--1990 using a quadratic function of log income. The long-run coefficient on squared income is found to be negative and significant, indicating a change in trend of energy intensity. The estimates are then used to evaluate a medium-term forecast of energy demand in the Asian countries, using both a log-linear and a quadratic model. It is found that in medium to high income countries the quadratic model performs better than the log-linear, with an average error of 9% against 43% in 1995. For the region as a whole, the quadratic model appears more adequate with a forecast error of 16% against 28% in 1995. These results are consistent with a process of dematerialization, which occurs as a result of a reduction of resource use per unit of GDP once an economy passes some threshold level of GDP per capita

  2. Planning India's long-term energy shipment infrastructures for electricity and coal

    Bowen, Brian H.; Canchi, Devendra; Lalit, Vishal Agarwal; Preckel, Paul V.; Sparrow, F.T.; Irwin, Marty W.

    2010-01-01

    The Purdue Long-Term Electricity Trading and Capacity Expansion Planning Model simultaneously optimizes both transmission and generation capacity expansions. Most commercial electricity system planning software is limited to only transmission planning. An application of the model to India's national power grid, for 2008-2028, indicates substantial transmission expansion is the cost-effective means of meeting the needs of the nation's growing economy. An electricity demand growth rate of 4% over the 20-year planning horizon requires more than a 50% increase in the Government's forecasted transmission capacity expansion, and 8% demand growth requires more than a six-fold increase in the planned transmission capacity expansion. The model minimizes the long-term expansion costs (operational and capital) for the nation's five existing regional power grids and suggests the need for large increases in load-carrying capability between them. Changes in coal policy affect both the location of new thermal power plants and the optimal pattern inter-regional transmission expansions.

  3. The critical role of the industrial sector in reaching long-term emission reduction, energy efficiency and renewable targets

    Fais, Birgit; Sabio, Nagore; Strachan, Neil

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A new industrial modelling approach in a whole energy systems model is developed. • The contribution of UK industry to long-term energy policy targets is analysed. • Emission reductions of up to 77% can be achieved in the UK industry until 2050. • The UK industry sector is essential for achieving the overall efficiency commitments. • UK industry can make a moderate contribution to the expansion of renewable energies. - Abstract: This paper evaluates the critical contribution of the industry sector to long-term decarbonisation, efficiency and renewable energy policy targets. Its methodological novelty is the incorporation of a process-oriented modelling approach based on a comprehensive technology database for the industry sector in a national energy system model for the UK (UKTM), allowing quantification of the role of both decarbonisation of upstream energy vectors and of mitigation options in the industrial sub-categories. This enhanced model is then applied in a comparative policy scenario analysis that explores various target dimensions on emission mitigation, renewable energy and energy efficiency at both a national and European level. The results show that ambitious emission cuts in the industry sector of up to 77% until 2050 compared to 2010 can be achieved. Moreover, with a reduction in industrial energy demand of up to 31% between 2010 and 2050, the sector is essential for achieving the overall efficiency commitments. The industry sector also makes a moderate contribution to the expansion of renewable energies mostly through the use of biomass for low-temperature heating services. However, additional sub-targets on renewable sources and energy efficiency need to be assessed critically, as they can significantly distort the cost-efficiency of the long-term mitigation pathway.

  4. Lessons from the use of a long-term energy model for consequential life cycle assessment: the BTL case

    Menten, Fabio; Tchung-Ming, Stephane; Lorne, Daphne; Bouvart, Frederique

    2013-11-01

    The main objective of this study is to develop a methodology adapted to the prospective environmental evaluation of actions in the energy sector. It describes how a bottom-up long-term energy model can be used in a life cycle assessment (LCA) framework. The proposed methodology is applied in a case study about the global warming impacts occurring as a consequence of the future production of synthetic diesel from biomass 'biomass to liquids' - BTL), a second generation biofuel, in France. The results show a high sensitivity of the system-wide GHG balance to (i) the policy context and to (ii) the economic environment. Both influence the substitutions occurring within the system due to the production of BTL. Under the specific conditions of this study, the consequences of introducing BTL are not clear-cut. Therefore, we focus on the lessons from the detailed analysis of the results more than in the precise-looking projections, illustrating how this type of models can be used for strategic planning (industry and policy makers). TIMES-type models allow a detailed description of the numerous technologies affected by BTL production and how these vary under different policy scenarios. Moreover, some recommendations are presented, which should contribute for a proper systematization of consequential and prospective LCA methodologies. We provide argumentation on how to define a functional unit and system boundaries that are better linked with the goal of the study. Other crucial methodological issues are also discussed: how to treat temporal aspects in such environmental evaluation and how to increase the consistency of life cycle assessments. (authors)

  5. Predictors of long-term smoking cessation: results from the global adult tobacco survey in Poland (2009–2010

    Kaleta Dorota

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Expanding the information on determinants of smoking cessation is crucial for developing and implementing more effective tobacco control measures at the national as well as European levels. Data on smoking cessation and its social correlates among adults from middle-income countries of Central and Eastern Europe are still poorly reported in the literature. The aim of the study was to analyze the association of socio-demographic indicators with long term tobacco smoking cessation (quit smoking for at least one year prior to interview among adults. Moreover, we evaluated motives for giving up smoking from former smokers. Methods Data on former as well as current smokers’ socio-demographic and smoking-related characteristics were derived from the Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS. GATS is a cross-sectional, nationally representative household survey implemented in Poland between 2009 and 2010. GATS collected data on a representative sample of 7,840 individuals including 1,206 individuals who met the criteria of long-term smoking cessation and 2,233 current smokers. Smoking cessation rate was calculated as the number of former smokers divided by the number of ever smokers. Logistic regression analyses were used to obtain odds ratios (ORs and 95% confidence interval (CI of the broad number of variables on successful cessation of smoking. Results Among females the quit rate was 30.4% compared to 37.9% in males (p  Conclusion Results indicated that smoking cessation policies focused on younger age groups are vital for curbing tobacco epidemic in Poland and should become a public health main concern. There is also the need for interventions to raise awareness on smoking health risks and quitting benefits are crucial to increase cessation potential among adult smokers. Nevertheless further effort needs to be done to prevent smoking uptake.

  6. Focus on the short- and long-term effects of ghrelin on energy homeostasis.

    De Vriese, Carine; Perret, Jason; Delporte, Christine

    2010-06-01

    The endogenous ligand for the growth hormone secretagogue receptor, ghrelin, is a 28-amino-acid peptide acylated with an octanoyl group at the serine in position 3. Most of the circulating ghrelin results from its synthesis and secretion by the X/A-like endocrine cells from the stomach and proximal small intestine. Besides its potent growth hormone secretory action, ghrelin is a highly pleiotropic hormone, contributing significantly to the regulation of appetite and food intake control, gastrointestinal motility, gastric acid secretion, endocrine and exocrine pancreatic secretions, cell proliferation, glucose and lipid metabolism, and cardiovascular and immunologic processes. The purpose of this review is to consider the orexigenic effects of ghrelin on short-term regulation of food intake and long-term regulation of body weight, the implications of genetic ghrelin and growth hormone secretagogue receptor polymorphism, and the use of antagonists and agonists of ghrelin in pathophysiological conditions. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Part I. Alternative fuel-cycle and deployment strategies: their influence on long-term energy supply and resource usage

    Till, C.E.; Chang, Y.I.; Rudolph, R.R.

    1980-01-01

    This report examines the implications of alternative fast breeder fuel cycles and deployment strategies on long-term energy supply and uranium resource utilization. An international-aggregate treatment for nuclear energy demand and resource base assumptions was adopted where specific assumptions were necessary for system analyses, but the primary emphasis was placed on understanding the general relationships between energy demand, uranium resource and breeder deployment option. The fast breeder deployment options studied include the reference Pu/U cycle as well as alternative cycles with varying degrees of thorium utilization

  8. SM2RAIN-CCI: a new global long-term rainfall data set derived from ESA CCI soil moisture

    Ciabatta, Luca; Massari, Christian; Brocca, Luca; Gruber, Alexander; Reimer, Christoph; Hahn, Sebastian; Paulik, Christoph; Dorigo, Wouter; Kidd, Richard; Wagner, Wolfgang

    2018-02-01

    Accurate and long-term rainfall estimates are the main inputs for several applications, from crop modeling to climate analysis. In this study, we present a new rainfall data set (SM2RAIN-CCI) obtained from the inversion of the satellite soil moisture (SM) observations derived from the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) via SM2RAIN (Brocca et al., 2014). Daily rainfall estimates are generated for an 18-year long period (1998-2015), with a spatial sampling of 0.25° on a global scale, and are based on the integration of the ACTIVE and the PASSIVE ESA CCI SM data sets.The quality of the SM2RAIN-CCI rainfall data set is evaluated by comparing it with two state-of-the-art rainfall satellite products, i.e. the Tropical Measurement Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis 3B42 real-time product (TMPA 3B42RT) and the Climate Prediction Center Morphing Technique (CMORPH), and one modeled data set (ERA-Interim). A quality check is carried out on a global scale at 1° of spatial sampling and 5 days of temporal sampling by comparing these products with the gauge-based Global Precipitation Climatology Centre Full Data Daily (GPCC-FDD) product. SM2RAIN-CCI shows relatively good results in terms of correlation coefficient (median value > 0.56), root mean square difference (RMSD, median value test the capabilities of the data set to correctly identify rainfall events under different climate and precipitation regimes.The SM2RAIN-CCI rainfall data set is freely available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.846259.

  9. A Global Assessment of the Chemical Recalcitrance of Seagrass Tissues: Implications for Long-Term Carbon Sequestration

    Stacey M. Trevathan-Tackett

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Seagrass ecosystems have recently been identified for their role in climate change mitigation due to their globally-significant carbon sinks; yet, the capacity of seagrasses to sequester carbon has been shown to vary greatly among seagrass ecosystems. The recalcitrant nature of seagrass tissues, or the resistance to degradation back into carbon dioxide, is one aspect thought to influence sediment carbon stocks. In this study, a global survey investigated how the macromolecular chemistry of seagrass leaves, sheaths/stems, rhizomes and roots varied across 23 species from 16 countries. The goal was to understand how this seagrass chemistry might influence the capacity of seagrasses to contribute to sediment carbon stocks. Three non-destructive analytical chemical analyses were used to investigate seagrass chemistry: thermogravimetric analysis (TGA and solid state 13C-NMR and infrared spectroscopy. A strong latitudinal influence on carbon quality was found, whereby temperate seagrasses contained 5% relatively more labile carbon, and tropical seagrasses contained 3% relatively more refractory carbon. Sheath/stem tissues significantly varied across taxa, with larger morphologies typically containing more refractory carbon than smaller morphologies. Rhizomes were characterized by a higher proportion of labile carbon (16% of total organic matter compared to 8–10% in other tissues; however, high rhizome biomass production and slower remineralization in anoxic sediments will likely enhance these below-ground tissues' contributions to long-term carbon stocks. Our study provides a standardized and global dataset on seagrass carbon quality across tissue types, taxa and geography that can be incorporated in carbon sequestration and storage models as well as ecosystem valuation and management strategies.

  10. Contribution to a proposition for a long term development of nuclear energy: the TASSE concept (Thorium based Accelerator driven System with Simplified fuel cycle for long term Energy Production)

    Berthou, V.

    2000-01-01

    Nuclear industry creates waste which are in the middle of the discussion concerning the Nuclear Energy future. At this time, important decisions for the Energy production must be taken, so numerous researches are conducted within the framework of the Bataille law. The goal of these studies is to find a range of solutions concerning the waste management. An innovative system, called TASSE (Thorium based Accelerator driven System with Simplified fuel cycle for long term Energy production), is studied in this thesis. This reactor is included in a long term strategy, and is destined for the renewal of the reactor park. In the first part of this work, the main characteristics of TASSE have been defined. They are commensurate with some specific requirements such as: to insure a large time to the Nuclear Energy, to reduce the waste production in an important way, to eliminate waste already stocked in the present park, to insure the non proliferation, and to be economically competitive. Neutronics studies of TASSE have been done. A calculation procedure has been developed to reach the system equilibrium state. Several types of molten salts as well as a pebble-bed fuel have been studied. Thus, an optimal fuel has been brought out in regard to some parameters such as the burn up level, the spectrum, the waste toxicity, the cycle type. Eventually, various TASSE core layout have been envisaged. (author)

  11. Long-term trends of heat stress and energy use implications in subtropical climates

    Lam, Joseph C.; Wan, Kevin K.W.; Wong, S.L.; Lam, Tony N.T. [Building Energy Research Group, Department of Building and Construction, City University of Hong Kong, Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon, Hong Kong SAR (China)

    2010-02-15

    Past and future trends of human comfort in terms of heat and cold stresses under the local subtropical climates using measured meteorological data as well as predictions from general climate models were investigated. Summer discomfort showed an increasing trend (and winter discomfort a decreasing trend) over the past 41 years from 1968 to 2008. Monthly mean minimum and maximum temperatures and moisture content predictions from a general climate model (MIROC3.2-H) were used to determine summer and winter discomfort for future years (2009-2100) based on two emissions scenarios B1 and A1B (low and medium forcing). The 92-year (2009-2100) mean cold stress would be reduced from the 41-year (1968-2008) mean value of 8.7 to about three for both emissions scenarios. The 92-year mean heat stress would be 115.9 and 120.6 for B1 and A1B, respectively, representing 31.6% and 36.9% increase over the 1968-2008 long-term average of 88.1. These suggest that the already small winter heating requirement in subtropical Hong Kong would become even more insignificant in future years, whereas the increasing trend of summer discomfort would result in more cooling demand in the built environment. (author)

  12. Assessments of long-term effects of CO2 and 14C: Various energy scenarios

    Matthies, M.; Paretzke, H.G.

    1982-01-01

    A non-linear model for the global carbon cycle has been developed and applied for prognostic assessment of concentrations of CO 2 from the combustion of fossil fuel and of radiocarbon released from facilities of the nuclear fuel cycle. The model is built up from two boxes for the atmosphere (stratosphere, troposphere), three boxes for the ocean (mixed surface layer, deep sea and sediments), and two boxes for the biosphere (short-and long-lived biota) with non-linear troposphere-biota and troposphere-ocean surface layer exchange rates and linear fluxes between the other reservoirs. Two different models are used for the man-made reduction of the biomass: (a) no deforestation function, and (b) slightly growing deforestation function. The three scenarios considered are: (I) annual energy growth rates of 2% and 4%, no nuclear power; (II) an upper, lower and medium estimate of replacement of fossil fuels by nuclear power. In addition, two assumptions concerning the decontamination of 14 C in the nuclear power plant effluents were made: one in which 14 C is released completely, and one with a decontamination factor of 4. Assuming logistic source functions for the increase of fossil-fuel combustion and an exponential growth of nuclear power until the year 2020, by around 2100 the CO 2 concentration of the troposphere will reach concentrations twice to five times as high as the pre-industrial level. Various environmental effects of this increasing CO 2 level are briefly discussed. The specific 14 C activity of the atmosphere is decreased. Up to the year 2200, the specific activity will be lower than the pre-industrial level. The individual lifetime dose commitments (70 years) are found between 0.85 and 0.45 mSv (pre-industrial value: 0.73 mSv)

  13. Long-Term Audience Impacts of Live Fulldome Planetarium Lectures for Earth Science and Global Change Education

    Yu, K. C.; Champlin, D. M.; Goldsworth, D. A.; Raynolds, R. G.; Dechesne, M.

    2011-09-01

    Digital Earth visualization technologies, from ArcGIS to Google Earth, have allowed for the integration of complex, disparate data sets to produce visually rich and compelling three-dimensional models of sub-surface and surface resource distribution patterns. The rendering of these models allows the public to quickly understand complicated geospatial relationships that would otherwise take much longer to explain using traditional media. At the Denver Museum of Nature & Science (DMNS), we have used such visualization technologies, including real-time virtual reality software running in the immersive digital "fulldome" Gates Planetarium, to impact the community through topical policy presentations. DMNS public lectures have covered regional issues like water resources, as well as global topics such as earthquakes, tsunamis, and resource depletion. The Gates Planetarium allows an audience to have an immersive experience-similar to virtual reality "CAVE" environments found in academia-that would otherwise not be available to the general public. Public lectures in the dome allow audiences of over 100 people to comprehend dynamically changing geospatial datasets in an exciting and engaging fashion. Surveys and interviews show that these talks are effective in heightening visitor interest in the subjects weeks or months after the presentation. Many visitors take additional steps to learn more, while one was so inspired that she actively worked to bring the same programming to her children's school. These preliminary findings suggest that fulldome real-time visualizations can have a substantial long-term impact on an audience's engagement and interest in science topics.

  14. An interim report on the outlook of long-term energy supply and demand

    1982-01-01

    An interim report was presented by the supply/demand committee in Over-all Energy Council concerning the energy demand and supply outlook for fiscal 1990 as compared with fiscal 1980. The background for deciding the outlook of energy supply and demand and basic ideas for energy policy, and the outlook for energy supply and demand are outlined. The outlook was prepared, assuming yearly economic growth of about 5 % in 1980s and the utmost efforts by people in energy situation. The energy situation both domestic and abroad is largely changing, including energy saving efforts and petroleum price. The aggregate energy demand for fiscal 1990 was put at about 590 million kl in terms of crude oil. Then, concerning nuclear power generation, the power supply by nuclear energy in fiscal 1990 was estimated at 46 million kw accounting for 11.3 % of the total power supply. (Mori, K.)

  15. Long-term energy services security: What is it and how can it be measured and valued?

    Jansen, Jaap C.; Seebregts, Ad J.

    2010-01-01

    The paper reviews some recent approaches towards measuring the extent of long-term energy security and security externality valuation. It starts out to discuss the contextual connotations of notions of 'energy security' in medium to long-term time frames and reviews some indicators that have been proposed to quantify it. Special attention is paid to two of these approaches, which the authors helped to develop, i.e. diversity-based indices and the Supply/Demand Index. The paper takes issue with conventional welfare economic approaches that neglect: (i) the scope on the demand side for raising security and (ii) negative feedback mechanisms of socio-political impacts of international rent transfers in fossil fuels exporting countries. The concept of energy services security is proposed with a demand-side focus. This enables application of an integrated approach to gauge the resilience of a society to meet the needs of its population for energy services over longer timescales ahead from various interrelated perspectives. Propositions are made on the attribution of security externalities to the use of fossil fuels, policies, and suggestions for further improvements of measures for energy services security.

  16. Long-term energy storage tanks for dwellings and solar house architecture. Final report

    1980-12-01

    The design and installation of hot water storage tanks as accumulators of solar energy is presented. Solar house architecture which maximizes roof, solar collector energy absorption potential is then considered. Proposals for residential areas which include solar houses are made.

  17. Interim report on the long-term outlook of energy demands and supplies

    1982-01-01

    The supply/demand committee on Overall Energy Council has long deliberated on the outlook of energy demands and supplies, and finalized its report, assuming a yearly economic growth of about 5% in 1980s and utmost efforts by both the people and the government: the background and basic ideas to decide the outlook, the outlook of energy demands and supplies, and conclusions. The energy demand for fiscal 1990 is put at 590 million kl (crude oil equivalent) and for fiscal 2000 at 770 million kl with energy saving ratios 15.5% and 25%, respectively. The energy supply by nuclear power for fiscal 1990 is then put at 46,000 MW with 11.3% of the total. In the energy supply outlook for fiscal 1990, the aspects of the economy and stability as well as the quantity of respective energy sources are considered, overall to reduce the reliance on petroleum. (Mori, K.)

  18. Nuclear energy - short-term and long-term aspects of its answerability and realization

    Birkhofer, A.

    1982-01-01

    The recommendations of the two phases 'nuclar energy I' and 'nuclear energy II' create the necessary technological conditions for nuclear energy utilization on one hand, on the other, they basically secure that it shall still be possible to waive nuclear energy in the future. Within this framework the lecture deals with the question of reactor safety, nuclear waste management and breeder reactor technology, especially of the SNR-300. (HSCH) [de

  19. Resource Assessment of Tidal Current Energy in Hangzhou Bay Based on Long Term Measurement

    Zhang, Feng; Dai, Chun-Ni; Xu, Xue-Feng; Wang, Chuan-Kun; Ye, Qin

    2017-05-01

    Compared with other marine renewable energy, tidal current energy benefits a lot in high energy density and good predictability. Based on the measured tidal current data in Hangzhou Bay from Nov 2012 to Oct 2012, this paper analysed temporal and spatial changes of tidal current energy in the site. It is the first time measured data of such long time been taken in tidal current energy analysis. Occurrence frequency and duration of the current of different speed are given out in the paper. According to the analysis results, monthly average power density changed a lot in different month, and installation orientation of tidal current turbine significantly affected energy acquisition. Finally, the annual average power density of tidal current energy with coefficient Cp in the site was calculated, and final output of a tidal current plant was also estimated.

  20. Residential energy use: an international perspective on long-term trends in Denmark, Norway and Sweden

    Unander, Fridtjof; Ettestoel, Ingunn; Ting, Mike; Schipper, Lee

    2004-01-01

    This paper examines residential energy use in the Scandinavian countries: Denmark, Norway and Sweden, over the period 1973-1999. The paper uses a decomposition approach to investigate differences in residential energy demand structure and end-use intensities and discusses both differences in absolute levels of energy use and differences over time. Comparisons are also made to other countries that have been analysed in the IEA energy efficiency indicator project. The analysis shows that, in contrast to Denmark and Sweden, Norway saw a growth in total residential energy use between 1973 and 1999. This can be partially explained by the fact that Norway started from a lower per capita income level in the early 1970s but has since then enjoyed a rapid income growth that drove up house area and consequently put a pressure on energy use. But the analysis also shows that Denmark and Sweden achieved significant reductions of residential energy intensities between 1973 and 1990, while the reductions in Norway were negligible. After 1990, the picture changed; there was a strong decline in residential energy intensities in Norway and a high rate of energy savings compared to most other countries analysed by the IEA, while energy savings in Denmark and Sweden more or less came to a halt

  1. Modeling and analysis of long term energy demands in residential sector of pakistan

    Rashid, T.; Sahir, M.H.

    2015-01-01

    Residential sector is the core among the energy demand sectors in Pakistan. Currently, various techniques are being used worldwide to assess future energy demands including integrated system modeling (ISM). Therefore, the current study is focused on implementation of ISM approach for future energy demand analysis of Pakistan's residential sector in terms of increase in population, rapid urbanization, household size and type, and increase/decrease in GDP. A detailed business-as-usual (BAU) model is formulated in TIMES energy modeling framework using different factors like growth in future energy services, end-use technology characterization, and restricted fuel supplies. Additionally, the developed model is capable to compare the projected energy demand under different scenarios e.g. strong economy, weak economy and energy efficiency. The implementation of ISM proved a viable approach to predict the future energy demands of Pakistan's residential sector. Furthermore, the analysis shows that the energy consumption in the residential sector would be 46.5 Mtoe (Million Ton of Oil Equivalent) in 2040 compared to 23 Mtoe of the base year (2007) along with 600% increase in electricity demands. The study further maps the potential residential energy policies to congregate the future demands. (author)

  2. Long-term energy planning of Croatian power system using multi-objective optimization with focus on renewable energy and integration of electric vehicles

    Prebeg, Pero; Gasparovic, Goran; Krajacic, Goran; Duic, Neven

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Optimization of supply side long-term energy planning of large power system. • Integration of renewable sources and electrical vehicles in large power system. • Multi-level, multi-objective optimization for a design of energy system. • Historical river flow data analysis for modeling of aggregated hydropower potential. - Abstract: Due to the stochastic nature and variability of renewable energy sources (RES), it is necessary to integrate still expensive storage capacities into an energy system with a high share of RES and to model appropriate energy market. The study presented here considers all energy carriers, however, only the electricity carrier is modeled in detail, with notion taken for the heating demand that is covered but without proper modeling of storage. A proposed two-level approach with multi-objective optimization on the global level, was used to design a Croatian Energy System (CES), where electric vehicles (EVs) are integrated to serve as battery storage in Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) mode, for a scenario between 2015 and 2050. In addition, case study includes nine aggregated hydro power plants, one for each river basin in Croatia. Also, case study includes solar and wind power plants modeled for six locations in Croatia: Osijek, Zagreb, Rijeka, Sibenik, Split and Dubrovnik. The resulting Pareto front suggests that with assumed future costs of fuels and technology certain level of conventional energy sources will have to remain in the energy system to take into the account unfavourable weather conditions and to cover heating demand, which also results in significantly lower load factors for those power plants. Also, variants with more RES share have lower total energy system load factor and significantly higher installed capacity.

  3. Long-term Energy and Emissions Savings Potential in New York City Buildings

    Bhatt, Vatsal [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States); Lee, John [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States); Klein, Yehuda [City Univ. (CUNY), NY (United States); Link, Hildegaard [City Univ. (CUNY), NY (United States); Pillich, Jose [City Univ. (CUNY), NY (United States)

    2012-09-30

    The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) partnered with the Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) and the City University of New York (CUNY) to develop an integrated methodology that is capable of quantifying the impact of energy efficiency and load management options in buildings, including CUNY’s campus buildings, housing projects, hospitals, and hotels, while capturing the synergies and offsets in a complex and integrated energy-environmental system. The results of this work serve as a guideline in implementing urban energy efficiency and other forms of urban environmental improvement through cost-effective planning at the institutional and local level.

  4. Leveraging Energy Harvesting and Wake-Up Receivers for Long-Term Wireless Sensor Networks.

    Ait Aoudia, Fayçal; Gautier, Matthieu; Magno, Michele; Berder, Olivier; Benini, Luca

    2018-05-15

    Wireless sensor nodes are traditionally powered by individual batteries, and a significant effort has been devoted to maximizing the lifetime of these devices. However, as the batteries can only store a finite amount of energy, the network is still doomed to die, and changing the batteries is not always possible. A promising solution is to enable each node to harvest energy directly in its environment, using individual energy harvesters. Moreover, novel ultra-low power wake-up receivers, which allow continuous listening of the channel with negligible power consumption, are emerging. These devices enable asynchronous communication, further reducing the power consumption related to communication, which is typically one the most energy-consuming tasks in wireless sensor networks. Energy harvesting and wake-up receivers can be combined to significantly increase the energy efficiency of sensor networks. In this paper, we propose an energy manager for energy harvesting wireless sensor nodes and an asynchronous medium access control protocol, which exploits ultra-low power wake-up receivers. The two components are designed to work together and especially to fit the stringent constraints of wireless sensor nodes. The proposed approach has been implemented on a real hardware platform and tested in the field. Experimental results demonstrate the benefits of the proposed approach in terms of energy efficiency, power consumption and throughput, which can be up to more than two-times higher compared to traditional schemes.

  5. Evaluation of the long-term energy analysis program used for the 1978 EIA Administrator's Report to Congress

    Peelle, R. W.; Weisbin, C. R.; Alsmiller, Jr., R. G.

    1981-10-01

    An evaluation of the Long-Term Energy Analysis Program (LEAP), a computer model of the energy portion of the US economy that was used for the 1995-2020 projections in its 1978 Annual Report to Congress, is presented. An overview of the 1978 version, LEAP Model 22C, is followed by an analysis of the important results needed by its users. The model is then evaluated on the basis of: (1) the adequacy of its documentation; (2) the local experience in operating the model; (3) the adequacy of the numerical techniques used; (4) the soundness of the economic and technical foundations of the model equations; and (5) the degree to which the computer program has been verified. To show which parameters strongly influence the results and to approach the question of whether the model can project important results with sufficient accuracy to support qualitative conclusions, the numerical sensitivities of some important results to model input parameters are described. The input data are categorized and discussed, and uncertainties are given for some parameters as examples. From this background and from the relation of LEAP to other available approaches for long-term energy modeling, an overall evaluation is given of the model's suitability for use by the EIA.

  6. Qualitative and quantitative assessment of the short- and long-term consequences of opting out of nuclear energy

    Briem, G.; Halstrick, M.; Heilemann, U.; Hillebrand, B.; Kiy, M.; Neuhaus, R.; Knieper, O.; Schmidt, H.W.; Weiss, T.

    1986-08-01

    A reference scenario establishes the prospective development of the energy and overall economy under status-quo conditions, i.e. assuming especially the continued use of nuclear energy, while two scenarios (alternative I: 'immediate opting out' and alternative II: 'opting out in the long term') try to assess the consequences of a shutdown of nuclear energy for the economic development of the Federal Republic of Germany. Especially, the study deals with the effects on the power industry, the ecological consequences, and the overall economic effects both in the short and long run. In all three scenarios, the development of the home consumption of electric power is first of all determined by a structure model of the entire economy. The capacity required to meet that demand and its use are calculated with the aid of a power plant model; short- and long-term cost-minimization programmes making allowance especially for fuel and capital costs from the elements from which these quantities are derived. Fuel and capital costs operate as variables in the structure model to determine the sectoral and overall economic development. The report in addition investigates separately, in partial models, the effects on the chemical industry and the branches of industry processing iron, steel, and non-ferrous metals, all of which are greatly in demand of electric power. (orig./UA) [de

  7. Evaluation of the long-term power generation mix: The case study of South Korea's energy policy

    Min, Daiki; Chung, Jaewoo

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a practical portfolio model for the long-term power generation mix problem. The proposed model optimizes the power generation mix by striking a trade-off between the expected cost of power generation and its variability. We use Monte Carlo simulation techniques to consider the uncertainty associated with future electricity demand, fuel prices and their correlations, and the capital costs of power plants. Unlike in the case of conventional power generation mix models, we employ CVaR (Conditional Value-at-Risk) in designing variability to consider events that are rare but enormously expensive. A comprehensive analysis on South Korea's generation policy using the portfolio model shows that a large annual cost is additionally charged to substitute a portion of nuclear energy with other alternatives. Nonetheless, if Korea has to reduce its dependency on nuclear energy because of undermined social receptivity from the Fukushima disaster, it turns out that LNG or coal could be a secure candidate from an economic perspective. - Author-Highlights: • We develop a stochastic optimization model for long-term power generation mix. • Monte Carlo sampling method and scenario trees are used to solve the model. • The model is verified using the data provided by Korean government. • We evaluate Korea's existing nuclear expansion policy. • We analyze the cost of replacing nuclear energy with others in South Korea

  8. Inundation downscaling for the development of a long-term and global inundation database compatible to SWOT mission

    Aires, Filipe; Prigent, Catherine; Papa, Fabrice

    2014-05-01

    The Global Inundation Extent from Multi-Satellite (GIEMS) provides multi-year monthly variations of the global surface water extent at about 25 kmx25 km resolution, from 1993 to 2007. It is derived from multiple satellite observations. Its spatial resolution is usually compatible with climate model outputs and with global land surface model grids but is clearly not adequate for local applications that require the characterization of small individual water bodies. There is today a strong demand for high-resolution inundation extent datasets, for a large variety of applications such as water management, regional hydrological modeling, or for the analysis of mosquitos-related diseases. Even for climate applications, the GIEMS resolution might be limited given recent results on the key importance of the smallest ponds in the emission of CH4, as compared to the largest ones. If the inundation extent is combined to altimetry measurements to obtain water volume changes, and finally river discharge to the ocean (Frappart et al. 2011), then a better resolved inundation extent will also improve the accuracy of these estimates. In the context of the SWOT mission, the downscaling of GIEMS has multiple applications uses but a major one will be to use the SWOT retrievals to develop a downscaling of GIEMS. This SWOT-compatible downscaling could then be used to built a SWOT-compatible high-resolution database back in time from 1993 to the SWOT launch date. This extension of SWOT record is necessary to perform climate studies related to climate change. This paper present three approaches to do downscale GIEMS. Two basins will be considered for illustrative purpose, Amazon, Niger and Mekhong. - Aires, F., F. Papa, C. Prigent, J.-F. Cretaux and M. Berge-Nguyen, Characterization and downscaling of the inundation extent over the Inner Niger delta using a multi-wavelength retrievals and Modis data, J. of Hydrometeorology, in press, 2014. - Aires, F., F. Papa and C. Prigent, A long-term

  9. Japan revises its long-term energy supply and demand outlook

    Anon.

    1988-01-01

    A report, published recently by the Japanese Ministry of International Trade and Industry, revises earlier official views about how the industrial colossus plans to meet its energy needs to the end of century and beyond. A small chapter is devoted to the role of nuclear power in Japans energy supply. (qui)

  10. Comparison of Low-temperature District Heating Concepts in a Long-Term Energy System Perspective

    Lund, Rasmus Søgaard; Østergaard, Dorte Skaarup; Yang, Xiaochen

    2017-01-01

    renewable energy systems. This study compares three alternative concepts for DH temperature level: Low temperature (55/25 °C), Ultra-low temperature with electric boosting (45/25 °C), and Ultra-low temperature with heat pump boosting (35/20 °C) taking into account the grid losses, production efficiencies......District heating (DH) systems are important components in an energy efficient heat supply. With increasing amounts of renewable energy, the foundation for DH is changing and the approach to its planning will have to change. Reduced temperatures of DH are proposed as a solution to adapt it to future...... and building requirements. The scenarios are modelled and analysed in the analysis tool EnergyPLAN and compared on primary energy supply and socioeconomic costs. The results show that the low temperature solution (55/25°C) has the lowest costs, reducing the total costs by about 100 M€/year in 2050....

  11. Increased mitochondrial energy efficiency in skeletal muscle after long-term fasting: its relevance to animal performance.

    Bourguignon, Aurore; Rameau, Anaïs; Toullec, Gaëlle; Romestaing, Caroline; Roussel, Damien

    2017-07-01

    In the final stage of fasting, skeletal muscle mass and protein content drastically decrease when the maintenance of efficient locomotor activity becomes crucial for animals to reactivate feeding behaviour and survive a very long period of starvation. As mitochondrial metabolism represents the main physiological link between the endogenous energy store and animal performance, the aim of this study was to determine how a very long, natural period of fasting affected skeletal muscle mitochondrial bioenergetics in king penguin ( Aptenodytes patagonicus ) chicks. Rates of mitochondrial oxidative phosphorylation were measured in pectoralis permeabilized fibres and isolated mitochondria. Mitochondrial ATP synthesis efficiency and the activities of respiratory chain complexes were measured in mitochondria isolated from pectoralis muscle. Results from long-term (4-5 months) naturally fasted chicks were compared with those from short-term (10 day) fasted birds. The respiratory activities of muscle fibres and isolated mitochondria were reduced by 60% and 45%, respectively, on average in long-term fasted chicks compared with short-term fasted birds. Oxidative capacity and mitochondrial content of pectoralis muscle were lowered by long-term fasting. Bioenergetic analysis of pectoralis muscle also revealed that mitochondria were, on average, 25% more energy efficient in the final stage of fasting (4-5 months) than after 10 days of fasting (short-term fasted birds). These results suggest that the strong reduction in respiratory capacity of pectoralis muscle was partly alleviated by increased mitochondrial ATP synthesis efficiency. Such oxidative phosphorylation optimization can impact animal performance, e.g. the metabolic cost of locomotion or the foraging efficiency. © 2017. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

  12. University of Minnesota Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (ATES) project report on the first long-term cycle

    Walton, M.

    1991-10-01

    The technical feasibility of high-temperature (greater than 100 C) aquifer thermal energy storage (IOTAS) in a deep, confined aquifer was tested in a series of experimental cycles at the University of Minnesota's St. Paul field test facility (FTF). This report describes the additions to the FTF for the long-term cycles and the details of the first long-term cycle (LT1) that was conducted from November 1984 through May 1985. Heat recovery; operational experience; and thermal, chemical, hydrologic, and geologic aspects of LT1 are reported. The permits for long-term cycles required the addition of a monitoring well 30.5 m from the storage well for monitoring near the edge of the thermally affected area and allowed the addition of a cation-exchange water softener to enable continuous operation during the injection phase. Approximately 62 percent of the 9.47 GWh of energy added to the 9.21 x 10(exp 4) cu m of ground water stored in the aquifer LT1 was recovered. Ion-exchange water softening of the heated and stored ground water prevented scaling in the system heat exchangers and the storage well and changed the major-ion chemistry of the stored water. Temperatures at the storage horizons in site monitoring wells reached as high as 108 C during the injection phase of LT1. Following heat recovery, temperatures were less than 30 C at the same locations. Less permeable horizons underwent slow temperature changes. No thermal or chemical effects were observed at the remote monitoring site.

  13. Low-energy cardioversion of spontaneous atrial fibrillation. Immediate and long-term results.

    Lévy, S; Ricard, P; Gueunoun, M; Yapo, F; Trigano, J; Mansouri, C; Paganelli, F

    1997-07-01

    Recent studies have suggested that induced atrial fibrillation (AF) could be successfully terminated by using a two-catheter electrode system and low energy (energy cardioversion in spontaneous chronic and paroxysmal AF. Forty-two consecutive patients with spontaneous AF underwent low-energy electrical cardioversion. AF was chronic (> or = 1 month) with a mean duration of 9 +/- 19 months in 28 patients (group I) or paroxysmal with a history of recurrent attacks and a mean duration of the present episode of 7 +/- 16 days in 14 patients (group II). An underlying heart disease was present in 28 patients. A 3/3-ms biphasic shock was delivered between catheters positioned in the right atrium and the coronary sinus in 32 patients. In 10 patients, the left pulmonary artery branch was used. The catheters were connected to a custom external defibrillator. The shocks were synchronized to the R wave. Following a test shock of 60 V, the energy was increased in 40-V steps until a maximum of 400 V or restoration of sinus rhythm. Sinus rhythm was restored in 22 of the 28 patients (78%) of group I by using a mean leading-edge voltage of 297 +/- 57 V (mean energy 3.3 +/- 1.3 J) and in 11 of 14 patients (78%) of group II by using a mean leading-edge voltage of 223 +/- 41 V (mean energy, 1.8 +/- 0.7 J). The energy required for terminating chronic AF was significantly (P energy between two intracardiac catheters with an electrical field between the right and left atria and the protocol used is feasible in patients with persistent spontaneous AF. The technique is safe provided synchronization to the R wave is achieved. A low recurrence rate of AF was seen in patients in whom sinus rhythm was restored.

  14. The long-term development of the energy input in transportation, 1970-2020

    Meiren, P B [E.F.C.E.E., Mechelen (Belgium)

    1996-12-01

    This paper is a - modest - statistical and economic analysis of the energy input in the transportation sector over the past twenty-five years (1970 - 1995) and an attempt at looking ahead over the next twenty-five years (1995 - 2020). After World War II passenger cars and trucks became the means of transportation par excellence and are still the main vehicle for moving around, both men and freight. Energy input statistics were born. Let us see what they teach us. (EG)

  15. Energy and environment: two long-term strategies (1992-2020)

    Desprairies, P.

    1993-01-01

    The report presented by western Europe at the 1992 World Energy Conference is one of the eight studies that served as a basis for the Energy for the World of Tomorrow scope. It proposes two strategic options for the period 1992-2020, with the goal in mind of reconciling the rising energy demand, concomitant with economic growth, with the need to protect the environment and natural resources. A serious struggle is already being waged against local and regional pollution, and these should about be done away just after the turn of the century. It will take from one to five decades, however, before the risk of climatic change, or 'Greenhouse effect', can be evaluated. This may in fact turn out to be negligible, and does not as yet justify any further action than the expense of evaluating it, and a minimum-regret strategy to slow down carbon dioxide emissions. This would be done by improving energy efficiency and a reasonable development of natural gas and then, after the current pause, resumption of nuclear power in those areas where it is accepted. The second 'alternative' strategy would aim to reduce CO 2 emissions further, if ever the risk of climatic change is confirmed within ten years. This would call for serious efforts. Depending on the various scenarios that have been developed, primary energy consumption would increase only by 19 to 27% form now until the year 2020. Neither the energy supply perspectives nor the proven ecological risks would justify any hasty developments of renewable energies. But a major scientific and technical research effort is still needed in this direction, in order to change gradually away from petroleum and gas in the course of the next 100 to 200 years. From now until 2020, fossil and nuclear fuels will continue to be the predominant western European energy resources. 9 figs

  16. Long-term trends in direct and indirect household energy intensities: a factor in dematerialisation?

    Vringer, K.; Blok, K.

    2000-01-01

    Dematerialisation is assumed to contribute significantly to the alleviation of environmental problems. One of the possible causes of dematerialisation is a change in the consumption patterns of households. The aim of this article is to analyse changes in consumption patterns of Dutch households in the period between 1948 to 1996 in order to discover whether these changes have influenced the energy intensity of society. Due to the rise in consumption, the total household energy requirement per capita grew on average by 2.4 per cent per year over a period of 48 years (this figure ignores efficiency changes in the supplying sectors). In the same period the total energy intensity of households fluctuated but on average changed from 5.6 to 6.3 MJ/NLG, an increase of 0.25 per cent per year. If we exclude the direct energy consumption we find a slight decline in the indirect energy intensity, namely from 3.8 to 3.6 MJ/NLG ( - 0.14 per cent per year). No significant trends to a lower energy intensity are found and there is no indication of dematerialisation of the consumption patterns. If governments pursue a policy of sustainable development they have to take into account the fact that dematerialisation of the consumption pattern does not seem to be an autonomous process. (author)

  17. Long-term biomass resources for energy aim - quantities, costs and conditions of the market

    Gylling, M.; Abildtrup, J.; Vodder Nielsen, K.; Petersen, S.M.; Varming, S.

    2001-01-01

    This project assesses the agricultural, technical and economic possibilities for producing the planned quantity of energy crops in year 2015. The assessments in this project are based on two essential assumptions: 1) The total demand for straw and energy crops to meet the energy plans is added up, and the available amount of straw is used first and energy crops will be used for the remaining amount. 2) As long as the present economic conditions for set-aside prevails, it will only be the set-aside areas that will be available for energy crop production. Energy crops are not seen as economic competitive with other cash-crops on the reform areas.Three different scenarios for the agricultural crop production up to year 2015 are outlined; a reference scenario where the current development is extrapolated; an environment scenario in which a higher degree of environmental awareness is taken into account and a market scenario in which the economic competitiveness of agricultural production gains more focus. (au)

  18. Long-term outlook for global natural uranium and uranium enrichment supply and demand situations after the impact of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident

    Matsuo, Yuhji; Murakami, Tomoko

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, the authors propose long-term projections of global nuclear power generation, uranium production, and uranium enrichment capacities by region, and estimate the trade flows of natural uranium and uranium enrichment activities in 2020 and 2035. In spite of the rapid nuclear power generation capacity growth expected especially in Asia, the natural uranium and uranium enrichment trade will not be tightened by 2020 due to the projected increase in both natural uranium production and uranium enrichment capacities, which may cause a drop in natural uranium and uranium enrichment prices. Thus, there is a great possibility that the current projects for capacity expansion will be delayed considerably. However, in the 'high-demand scenario', where nuclear expansion will be accelerated due to growing concerns about global warming and energy security issues, additional investments in uranium production and enrichment facilities will be needed by 2035. In Asia, the self-sufficiency ratio for both natural uranium supply and uranium enrichment activities will remain relatively low until 2035. However, the Herfindahl-Hirschman (HH) index of natural uranium and uranium enrichment activity trade to Asia will be lowered considerably up to 2035, indicating that nuclear capacity expansion can contribute to enhancing energy security in Asia. (author)

  19. Short-term influences and long-term fundamentals: stabilizing and destabilizing effects in the energy industries

    Robinson, Silvan [Royal Inst. of International Affairs, London (United Kingdom)

    1992-10-01

    The ideology of the market economy has become dominant in all walks of economic life and the energy industries are no exception. In the oil business, the stabilizing structures of the international majors and of long-term prices have been replaced by industrial fragmentation and market price mechanisms. Monopolies in other energy industries are being progressively dismantled. This live experiment is being conducted on an industry which historically has suffered from feast and famine economics and has tried to protect itself through various forms of cartelization. The short-term effects of this open market have so far tended to improve flexibility and consumer choice. The price instability has proved manageable. The danger is that cash flow compression will reduced investments in the future and an ability to make very long lead time shifts in the energy mix. For this some government intervention in markets is necessary. (author).

  20. Regional prediction of long-term landfill gas to energy potential.

    Amini, Hamid R; Reinhart, Debra R

    2011-01-01

    Quantifying landfill gas to energy (LFGTE) potential as a source of renewable energy is difficult due to the challenges involved in modeling landfill gas (LFG) generation. In this paper a methodology is presented to estimate LFGTE potential on a regional scale over a 25-year timeframe with consideration of modeling uncertainties. The methodology was demonstrated for the US state of Florida, as a case study, and showed that Florida could increase the annual LFGTE production by more than threefold by 2035 through installation of LFGTE facilities at all landfills. The estimated electricity production potential from Florida LFG is equivalent to removing some 70 million vehicles from highways or replacing over 800 million barrels of oil consumption during the 2010-2035 timeframe. Diverting food waste could significantly reduce fugitive LFG emissions, while having minimal effect on the LFGTE potential; whereas, achieving high diversion goals through increased recycling will result in reduced uncollected LFG and significant loss of energy production potential which may be offset by energy savings from material recovery and reuse. Estimates showed that the power density for Florida LFGTE production could reach as high as 10 Wm(-2) with optimized landfill operation and energy production practices. The environmental benefits from increased lifetime LFG collection efficiencies magnify the value of LFGTE projects. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Long term ambient temperature analysis and energy use implications in Hong Kong

    Lam, Joseph C.; Tsang, C.L.; Li, Danny H.W.

    2004-01-01

    Climate change issues and building energy use implications in subtropical Hong Kong were examined. A total of 40 years (1961-2000) of measured hourly temperature data were gathered and analysed. Three different parameters were examined, namely mean temperature, cumulative frequency of occurrence and cooling degree days (CDD). It was found that there was an underlying trend of temperature rise in recent years. Such temperature increase tended to occur more frequently during the winter period and mid-season than the summer months. The slight increase in CDD during the last 20 years suggested that cooling requirements and, hence, energy use for air conditioning might be affected if the trend persisted. The frequency of occurrence analysis, however, revealed no significant changes in the outdoor design conditions, and peak building cooling loads were expected to remain unchanged. This paper presents the work and discusses the energy use implications

  2. Long term energy system analysis of Japan based on 'options for energy and environment' by the energy and environmental council

    Hagiwara, Naoto; Kurosawa, Atsushi

    2013-01-01

    Implications to Japanese energy system are discussed especially in terms of primary energy supply and power generation portfolio, using sensitivity analysis results by an optimization type energy model based on TIMES modeling framework. We updated energy service demand, efficiency in energy conversion and consumption, and power generation costs based on the recent energy policy document called 'Options for Energy and Environment'. The time horizon of the model is 2050. The sensitivity analysis results are presented for 'Three scenarios for 2030' including nuclear phase out scenarios with/without CO 2 emission constraint. The results are compared with 'Options for Energy and Environment'. (author)

  3. Local government involvement in long term resource planning for community energy systems. Demand side management

    1992-03-01

    A program was developed to coordinate governmental, research, utility, and business energy savings efforts, and to evaluate future potential actions, based on actual field data obtained during the implementation of Phase I of the State Resource Plan. This has lead to the establishment of a state conservation and energy efficiency fund for the purpose of establishing a DSM Program. By taking a state wide perspective on resource planning, additional savings, including environmental benefits, can be achieved through further conservation and demand management. This effort has already blossomed into a state directive for DSM programs for the natural gas industry.

  4. Local government involvement in long term resource planning for community energy systems

    1992-03-01

    A program was developed to coordinate governmental, research, utility, and business energy savings efforts, and to evaluate future potential actions, based on actual field data obtained during the implementation of Phase I of the State Resource Plan. This has lead to the establishment of a state conservation and energy efficiency fund for the purpose of establishing a DSM Program. By taking a state wide perspective on resource planning, additional savings, including environmental benefits, can be achieved through further conservation and demand management. This effort has already blossomed into a state directive for DSM programs for the natural gas industry.

  5. Long term thermal energy storage with stable supercooled sodium acetate trihydrate

    Dannemand, Mark; Schultz, Jørgen M.; Johansen, Jakob Berg

    2015-01-01

    Utilizing stable supercooling of sodium acetate trihydrate makes it possible to store thermal energy partly loss free. This principle makes seasonal heat storage in compact systems possible. To keep high and stable energy content and cycling stability phase separation of the storage material must...... it expands and will cause a pressure built up in a closed chamber which might compromise stability of the supercooling. This can be avoided by having an air volume above the phase change material connected to an external pressure less expansion tank. Supercooled sodium acetate trihydrate at 20 °C stores up...

  6. Energy saving potential of long-term climate adaptive greenhouse shells

    Lee, C.; Costola, D.; Loonen, R.C.G.M.; Hensen, J.L.M.

    2013-01-01

    This paper describes yearly and monthly optimization of greenhouse shells. Simulations adopt a validated building energy simulation program, adapted and re-validated for simulation of commercial greenhouses, including a tomato crop model. The work focuses on multi-objective optimization of thermal

  7. Energy systems and climate policy - Long-term scenarios for an uncertain future

    Vuuren, D.P. van

    2007-01-01

    In this thesis various forms of scenario analysis are discussed both to explore 1) how energy system and associated greenhouse gas emissions may develop in the absence of climate policy and 2) how strategies aimed at drastically reducing greenhouse gas emissions may turn out. As uncertainties

  8. The long-term forecast of Taiwan's energy supply and demand: LEAP model application

    Huang, Yophy, E-mail: yohuanghaka@gmail.com [Deptartment of Public Finance and Tax Administration, National Taipei College of Business, Taipei Taiwan, 10051 (China); Bor, Yunchang Jeffrey [Deptartment of Economics, Chinese Culture University, Yang-Ming-Shan, Taipei, 11114, Taiwan (China); Peng, Chieh-Yu [Statistics Department, Taoyuan District Court, No. 1 Fazhi Road, Taoyuan City 33053, Taiwan (China)

    2011-11-15

    The long-term forecasting of energy supply and demand is an extremely important topic of fundamental research in Taiwan due to Taiwan's lack of natural resources, dependence on energy imports, and the nation's pursuit of sustainable development. In this article, we provide an overview of energy supply and demand in Taiwan, and a summary of the historical evolution and current status of its energy policies, as background to a description of the preparation and application of a Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model of Taiwan's energy sector. The Taiwan LEAP model is used to compare future energy demand and supply patterns, as well as greenhouse gas emissions, for several alternative scenarios of energy policy and energy sector evolution. Results of scenarios featuring 'business-as-usual' policies, aggressive energy-efficiency improvement policies, and on-schedule retirement of Taiwan's three existing nuclear plants are provided and compared, along with sensitivity cases exploring the impacts of lower economic growth assumptions. A concluding section provides an interpretation of the implications of model results for future energy and climate policies in Taiwan. - Research Highlights: > The LEAP model is useful for international energy policy comparison. > Nuclear power plants have significant, positive impacts on CO{sub 2} emission. > The most effective energy policy is to adopt demand-side management. > Reasonable energy pricing provides incentives for energy efficiency and conservation. > Financial crisis has less impact on energy demand than aggressive energy policy.

  9. Comparative assessment of different energy sources and their potential role in long-term sustainable energy mix

    Kagramanian, V.S.

    2001-01-01

    In the debate on sustainable energy future, the role of nuclear power is a contentious issue. Many, who are outside of the nuclear community, do not even consider nuclear, because of public concerns on nuclear safety, radioactive waste and non-proliferation issues. For example, the United Nations Development Program, in its document Energy After Rio does not suggest a specific role for nuclear power except in the most doubtful of terms. On the contrary, most nuclear organisations and related industries see nuclear power as the only mature carbon-free electricity generating option that can be deployed even on a much larger scale than today. This paper analyses the potential role of nuclear power in the context of the global sustainable energy future. The fundamental features of sustainable energy development are examined in terms of the following compatibility constraints: Demand driven compatibility; Natural resource compatibility; Environmental compatibility; Geopolitical compatibility; and Economic compatibility

  10. Regional improvement of global reanalyses by means of a new long-term Mediterranean hindcasted precipitation dataset: a first study over the Iberian Peninsula

    M. G. Sotillo

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Generation of a Mediterranean long-term (1958-2001 homogeneous high resolution environmental database constituted the main objective whitin the HIPOCAS Project. The high number of parameters included in this database allows a complete characterization of Mediterranean storms. In this paper, the HIPOCAS precipitation reliability over the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands is evaluated against long-term in-situ observations from Iberia. In order to provide a more complete study, comparisons of the HIPOCAS field with NCEP/NCAR and ERA global reanalysis show the important improvement in the characterisation of the observed precipitation introduced by the HIPOCAS hindcast.

  11. Long-term forecasts of regional, customer and use-specific energy demand

    Schwarz, Juerg

    1999-11-01

    In the future the Swiss electricity market will have to contend with changes stemming from market liberalization. The need for instruments to analyze and predict market shares of electricity is greater than ever; tools are also greatly needed to help managers and workers prepare for new beginnings and to reorient customers. The development and application of such an instrument are the object of the present thesis. A computer program produced within the context of this work can, based on an adapted bottom-up model, be used to analyze and predict the energy demand in the supply area of a medium-sized electric utility. Elektra Birseck Muenchenstein was included in the investigation as a representative medium-sized electric utility, and it provided the basis for a supply area. Current energy demand was depicted with a bottom-up approach and different scenarios of future development were calculated using a prognosis horizon of 30 years. For the market segmentation all consumer sectors had to be considered in detail. In addition, 'regionality', 'substitution' and 'customer proximity' factors had to be illustrated in the model, i.e. the regional development in the supply area, the substitution of energy sources -above all natural gas -and the detailed view of large, individual customers. The choice of a bottom-up approach created a demand for a large quantity of data, not all of which were available or could be produced. An additional crucial capability of the computer simulation was the comparison of assumptions and results of the prognoses. The users needed to be able to consider multiple future eventualities if they were to play out different scenarios to the end. Fulfilling these partly divergent criteria in the structural definition of the energy demand model was one of the large challenges of this work. The result of the dissertation is a differentiated prognosis instrument for the supply area of an electric utility. The structure of the suggested solution is

  12. Nuclear Materials Diversion Safety and the Long-term Future of Nuclear Energy

    Knapp, V.

    2002-01-01

    Primarily due to irresponsible cold war politics of nuclear weapon countries nuclear proliferation situation is little short of getting out of control. In addition to five nominal nuclear weapon countries there are at present at least three more nuclear weapon countries and several countries with nuclear weapon potential. Non-proliferation treaty (NPT), signed in 1970, has been recognized by most non-nuclear weapon countries as unjust and ineffective. After the initial, deliberate, nuclear weapon developments of five nominal nuclear weapon countries, subsequent paths to nuclear weapons have been preceded by nominal peaceful use of nuclear energy. Uranium enrichment installations as well as reprocessing installations in non-nuclear weapon countries are the weakest spots of fuel cycle for diversion of nuclear materials either by governments or by illicit groups. An energy scenario, which would, by the end of century, replace the large part of fossil fuels use through extension of present nuclear practices, would mean very large increase in a number of such installations, with corresponding increase of the probability of diversion of nuclear materials. Such future is not acceptable from the point of view of proliferation safety. Recent events make it clear, that it cannot be accepted from the requirements of nuclear terrorism safety either. Nuclear community should put it clearly to their respective governments that the time has come to put general interest before the supposed national interest, by placing all enrichment and reprocessing installations under full international control. Such internationalization has a chance to be accepted by non-nuclear weapon countries, only in case should it apply to nuclear weapon countries as well, without exception. Recent terrorist acts, however horrible they were, are child,s play compared with possible acts of nuclear terrorism. Nuclear energy can be made proliferation safe and diversion of nuclear materials safe, and provide

  13. Structural change of the economy, technological progress and long-term energy demand

    Klinge Jacobsen, Henrik

    of these approaches in the Danish case follows next. The integrated Danish model, is then used for analysing different revenue recycling principles in relation to a CO2 tax. The effect of subsidising biomass use is compared with recycling through corporate tax rates. Then a paper follows describing the structural......This report is a result of a project carried out in the period from August 1996 to September 1999 and financed by the Danish Energy Research Programme (EFP) 1996. The project has been carried out as a PhD project, and the material included in the report is a collection of papers dealing...

  14. Analysis on long-term change of energy system structure in Japan considering CO2 emission and domestic demand

    Kurokawa, Shingo; Tabe, Yutaka; Chikahisa, Takemi

    2011-01-01

    Long-term change of energy system structure in Japan was analyzed to investigate the effect of the CO 2 emission reduction level on the reduction cost using MARKAL model. The MARKAL is composed of energy resources, energy supply technologies, energy ultimate demand technologies and energy service demands with them connected by energy carriers. This paper presents analyses investigating the CO 2 reduction cost and the energy structure change until 2050. Here, we focused on the domestic investment to reduce CO 2 emission. It was shown that the CO 2 reduction until 40% level promotes the energy conversion from coal to natural gas and it causes the increase in total cost of the imported fuel. The higher CO 2 reduction, however, increases the domestic investment for low-emission vehicles, photovoltaic power generation and so on, and decreases the overseas investment, although the total CO 2 reduction cost is increased. This contributes to the revitalization of Japanese economy, together with the reduction of overseas investment. (author)

  15. Optimal sizing and operation of energy storage systems considering long term assessment

    Gerardo Guerra

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a procedure for estimating the optimal sizing of Photovoltaic Generators and Energy Storage units when they are operated from the utility’s perspective. The goal is to explore the potential improvement on the overall operating conditions of the distribution system to which the Generators and Storage units will be connected. Optimization is conducted by means of a General Parallel Genetic Algorithm that seeks to maximize the technical benefits for the distribution system. The paper proposes an operation strategy for Energy Storage units based on the daily variation of load and generation; the operation strategy is optimized for an evaluation period of one year using hourly power curves. The construction of the yearly Storage operation curve results in a high-dimension optimization problem; as a result, different day-classification methods are applied in order to reduce the dimension of the optimization. Results show that the proposed approach is capable of producing significant improvements in system operating conditions and that the best performance is obtained when the day-classification is based on the similarity among daily power curves.

  16. Electrification pathways for Kenya-linking spatial electrification analysis and medium to long term energy planning

    Moksnes, Nandi; Korkovelos, Alexandros; Mentis, Dimitrios; Howells, Mark

    2017-09-01

    In September 2015 UN announced 17 Sustainable Development goals (SDG) from which goal number 7 envisions universal access to modern energy services for all by 2030. In Kenya only about 46% of the population currently has access to electricity. This paper analyses hypothetical scenarios, and selected implications, investigating pathways that would allow the country to reach its electrification targets by 2030. Two modelling tools were used for the purposes of this study, namely OnSSET and OSeMOSYS. The tools were soft-linked in order to capture both the spatial and temporal dynamics of their nature. Two electricity demand scenarios were developed representing low and high end user consumption goals respectively. Indicatively, results show that geothermal, coal, hydro and natural gas would consist the optimal energy mix for the centralized national grid. However, in the case of the low demand scenario a high penetration of stand-alone systems is evident in the country, reaching out to approximately 47% of the electrified population. Increasing end user consumption leads to a shift in the optimal technology mix, with higher penetration of mini-grid technologies and grid extension.

  17. Long-term residual radioactivity in an intermediate-energy proton linac

    Blaha, J.; La Torre, F. P.; Silari, M.; Vollaire, J.

    2014-07-01

    A new 160 MeV H- linear accelerator (LINAC4) is being installed at CERN to replace the present 50 MeV LINAC2 as proton injector of the PS Booster (PSB). During operation, the accelerator components will be activated by the beam itself and by the secondary radiation field. Detailed Monte Carlo simulations, for various beam energies and several decay times, were performed to predict the residual radioactivity in the main accelerator components and to estimate the residual dose rate inside the tunnel. The results of this study will facilitate future dismantling, handling and storage of the activated parts and consequently minimize the radiation dose to involved workers. The component activation was also compared with the exemption limits given in the current Swiss legislation and to the CERN design values, in order to make predictions for the future storage and disposal of radioactive waste. The airborne radioactivity induced by particles escaping the beam dump and the activation of the beam dump cooling water circuit were also quantified. The aim of this paper is to provide data of sufficiently general interest to be used for similar studies at other intermediate-energy proton accelerator facilities.

  18. Long-term residual radioactivity in an intermediate-energy proton linac

    Blaha, J.; La Torre, F.P.; Silari, M.; Vollaire, J.

    2014-01-01

    A new 160 MeV H − linear accelerator (LINAC4) is being installed at CERN to replace the present 50 MeV LINAC2 as proton injector of the PS Booster (PSB). During operation, the accelerator components will be activated by the beam itself and by the secondary radiation field. Detailed Monte Carlo simulations, for various beam energies and several decay times, were performed to predict the residual radioactivity in the main accelerator components and to estimate the residual dose rate inside the tunnel. The results of this study will facilitate future dismantling, handling and storage of the activated parts and consequently minimize the radiation dose to involved workers. The component activation was also compared with the exemption limits given in the current Swiss legislation and to the CERN design values, in order to make predictions for the future storage and disposal of radioactive waste. The airborne radioactivity induced by particles escaping the beam dump and the activation of the beam dump cooling water circuit were also quantified. The aim of this paper is to provide data of sufficiently general interest to be used for similar studies at other intermediate-energy proton accelerator facilities

  19. Nuclear electric energy in Romania - present status and long term prospects

    Fulga, V.

    1996-01-01

    The paper presents an analysis of the option for nuclear power in view of the decreasing energy demand in Romania, following industrial restructuring and abandonment of highly consuming industrial capacities. The costs of Cernavoda NPP based on CANDU type reactors amounted up to USD 2.2 billions, 160 % higher than the real price. Even though this reactor type is positioned among the highest as the safety is concerned, it could be assumed that even small incidents (predictable as well as repairable) would result in a decay of the tourism on Romanian sea shore or Danube delta. The paper raises also five questions and asks for updating the data necessary for a renewal of governmental decision concerning the Romanian nuclear power program

  20. Long-term concepts for the peaceful uses of nuclear energy

    Kugeler, K.

    1996-01-01

    An even greater improvement in reactor safety is demanded for the future use of nuclear energy. It will be possible to build reactors whose cores can never melt down even in extreme accidents, this design being of interest for lower output reactors in dual-purpose generation, in small networks as well as on the heat market of the future. Confinement of the radioactive materials in the fuel elements is bound to compliance with four principles of stability: nuclear, thermal, chemical and mechanical stability and integrity must be warranted. Details of these principles as well as the underlying inherent characteristics of reactors are explained. Activities and measures for compliance with the principles are specified for a high-temperature reactor as an example. (orig.)

  1. The role of bioenergy in the UK's energy future formulation and modelling of long-term UK bioenergy scenarios

    Jablonski, Sophie; Bauen, Ausilio; Strachan, Neil; Brand, Christian

    2010-01-01

    This paper explores the prospects and policy implications for bioenergy to contribute to a long-term sustainable UK energy system. The UK MARKAL technology-focused energy systems dynamic cost optimisation model - which has been used to quantify the costs and benefits of alternative energy strategies in UK policy making - is enhanced with detailed representation of bio-energy chains and end-uses. This provides an important advance in linking bioenergy expert-knowledge with a whole system modelling approach, in order to better understand the potential role of bioenergy in an evolving energy system. The new BIOSYS-MARKAL model is used to run four scenarios constructed along the pillars of UK energy policy objectives (low carbon and energy security). The results are analysed in terms of bioenergy resources use and bioenergy pathways penetration in different end use sectors. The main findings suggest that the complexity of different bioenergy pathways may have been overlooked in previous modelling exercises. A range of bioenergy pathways - notably bio-heat and biofuels for transport - may have a much wider potential role to play. The extent to which this potential is fulfilled will be further determined by resources availability, and market segment constraints, as well as policy measures to improve deployment. (author)

  2. Worldwide cheap and heavy oil productions: A long-term energy model

    Guseo, Renato

    2011-01-01

    Crude oil, natural gas liquids, heavy oils, deepwater oils, and polar oils are non-renewable energy resources with increasing extraction costs. Two major definitions emerge: regular or 'cheap' oil and non-conventional or 'heavy' oil. Peaking time in conventional oil production has been a recent focus of debate. For two decades, non-conventional oils have been mixed with regular crude oil. Peaking time estimation and the rate at which production may be expected to decline, following the peak, are more difficult to determine. We propose a two-wave model for world oil production pattern and forecasting, based on the diffusion of innovation theories: a sequential multi-Bass model. Historical well-known shocks are confirmed, and new peaking times for crude oil and mixed oil are determined with corresponding depletion rates. In the final section, possible ties between the dynamics of oil extraction and refining capacities are discussed as a predictive symptom of an imminent mixed oil peak in 2016. - Highlights: → Production of conventional and non-conventional oils in aggregate time series. → Decomposition modelling and forecasting with a multi-regime model. → Diffusion of innovation theories and appropriateness of applying Bass concepts to the extraction of oil resources. → Partially overlapping oil extraction processes. → Refining capacities and dynamics of oil extraction.

  3. Long-term residual radioactivity in an intermediate-energy proton linac

    Blaha, J; Silari, M; Vollaire, J

    2014-01-01

    A new 160 MeV H−H− linear accelerator (LINAC4) is being installed at CERN to replace the present 50 MeV LINAC2 as proton injector of the PS Booster (PSB). During operation, the accelerator components will be activated by the beam itself and by the secondary radiation field. Detailed Monte Carlo simulations, for various beam energies and several decay times, were performed to predict the residual radioactivity in the main accelerator components and to estimate the residual dose rate inside the tunnel. The results of this study will facilitate future dismantling, handling and storage of the activated parts and consequently minimize the radiation dose to involved workers. The component activation was also compared with the exemption limits given in the current Swiss legislation and to the CERN design values, in order to make predictions for the future storage and disposal of radioactive waste. The airborne radioactivity induced by particles escaping the beam dump and the activation of the beam dump cooling w...

  4. GeoBest - A contribution to the long term development of deep geothermal energy in Switzerland.

    Kraft, T.; Wiemer, S.; Husen, S.

    2012-04-01

    The processes and conditions underpinning induced seismicity associated with deep geothermal operations are still not sufficiently well understood to make useful predictions as to the likely seismic response to reservoir development and exploitation. The empirical data include only a handful of well-monitored EGS experiments; models are consequently poorly constrained. Unfortunately, data sets of well-monitored deep hydrothermal experiments are missing and empirical constraints of induced seismicity models for these cases do not exist. Given that the majority of the projects underway or planned in Europe are of the hydrothermal type, there is hope that this deficit can be remedied in the near future through a close cooperation of geothermal industry, science and public authorities. The GeoBest project was initiated in Switzerland to facilitate the dialog between geothermal industry, science and public authorities. The Swiss Seismological Service (SED) is implementing the GeoBest project on behalf of the Swiss Federal Office for Energy (SFOE) to provide cantonal and federal authorities with guidelines on how to handle seismic monitoring and hazard in the framework of the environmental risk assessment. Within GeoBest, selected pilot projects in Switzerland will be supported during the necessary seismic monitoring of natural and induced seismicity. GeoBest supports the pilot project in the first two years, that are most critical with respect to the financial risk, by providing seismological instrumentation from the GeoBest instrument pool and partial financial support for the operation of the seismic monitoring network. In return the pilot projects grant SED access to project data needed for seismic hazard assessment and the development of best practice guidelines. These types of collaboration offer the unique opportunity to collect high-quality seismological data and, by combining them with relevant project data, to gain first hand practical experience for the

  5. The share of nuclear energy in the long-term electricity generation development in Poland

    Lipko, Krzysztof; Kwiatkowski, Mieczyslaw

    1999-01-01

    Polish power sector is currently undergoing rapid restructuring changes and according to new energy legislation electricity begins to be recognized as other tradable goods. Simultaneously an awareness of interdependencies between power generation expansion and a protection of the environment increases. Presented paper shows these interdependencies against the background of current and future electricity demand satisfying plans determined in Development Office of Polish Power Grid Company in the time range up to the year 2020. Special consideration is given to constraints assumed for power generation sector, relating to emissions of air pollutants, and their influence on possible changes in the mix of fuels used for power generation. In the first part of the paper an applied methodology of drawing up demand satisfying plans consistent with the rules of integrated resource planning (IRP) is described. Accepted macroeconomic assumptions (including these concerning electricity demand forecast) and development constraints related to emissions of air pollutants consistent with national legislation as well as signed international agreements are presented. The set of new generation technologies considered in development studies is described. Two scenarios of the power generation expansion plants developed for a high electricity demand growth are presented. One of them takes into account CO 2 emission constraint while the other neglects it. In the paper it is proved that the above constraint has great influence on the future mix of power plants. In the case when this constraint is taken into account the expansion of electricity generation beyond the year 2010 is based on technologies which do not increase CO 2 emissions, as for example, nuclear power. (author)

  6. Long-term outcome of high-energy open Lisfranc injuries: a retrospective study.

    Nithyananth, Manasseh; Boopalan, Palapattu R J V C; Titus, Vijay T K; Sundararaj, Gabriel D; Lee, Vernon N

    2011-03-01

    The outcome of open Lisfranc injuries has been reported infrequently. Should these injuries be managed as closed injuries and is their outcome different? We undertook a retrospective study of high-energy, open Lisfranc injuries treated between 1999 and 2005. The types of dislocation, the associated injuries to the same foot, the radiologic and functional outcome, and the complications were studied. There were 22 patients. Five patients died. One had amputation. Of the remaining 16 patients, 13 men were followed up at a mean of 56 months (range, 29-88 months). The average age was 36 years (range, 7-55 years). According to the modified Hardcastle classification, type B2 injury was the commonest. Ten patients had additional forefoot or midfoot injury. All patients were treated with debridement, open reduction, and multiple Kirschner (K) wire fixation. All injuries were Gustilo Anderson type IIIa or IIIb. Nine patients had split skin graft for soft tissue cover. Mean time taken for wound healing was 16 days (range, 10-30 days). Ten patients (77%) had fracture comminution. Eight patients had anatomic reduction, whereas five had nonanatomic reduction. Ten of 13 (77%) patients had at least one spontaneous tarsometatarsal joint fusion. The mean American Orthopaedic Foot and Ankle Society score was 82 (range, 59-100). Nonanatomic reduction, osteomyelitis, deformity of toes, planus foot, and mild discomfort on prolonged walking were the unfavorable outcomes present. In open Lisfranc injuries, multiple K wire fixation should be considered especially in the presence of comminution and soft tissue loss. Although anatomic reduction is always not obtained, the treatment principles should include adequate debridement, maintaining alignment with multiple K wires, and obtaining early soft tissue cover. There is a high incidence of fusion across tarsometatarsal joints. Copyright © 2011 by Lippincott Williams & Wilkins

  7. Long-term environmental monitoring at two US Department of Energy Nuclear Sites

    Gray, R.H.

    1996-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy's Hanford Site was established in southeastern Washington during the 1940s to produce plutonium during World War II. The Pantex Plant in the Texas Panhandle was originally used by the U.S. Army for loading conventional ammunition shells and bombs. The Plant was rehabilitated and enhanced in the 1950s to assemble nuclear weapons. Environmental monitoring has been ongoing at both locations for several decades. Monitoring objectives are to detect and assess potential impacts of facility operations on air, surface and ground waters, foodstuffs, fish, wildlife, soils, and vegetation. Currently, measured concentrations of airborne radionuclides around the perimeters of both sites are below applicable guidelines. The low levels of 137 Cs and 90 Sr in some onsite Hanford wildlife samples and concentrations of radionuclides in soils and vegetation from onsite and offsite at both locations are typical of those attributable to naturally occurring radioactivity and to worldwide fallout. Ironically, by virtue of its size (1,450 km 2 [560 mi 2 )], restricted public access, and conservative use of undeveloped land, the Hanford Site has provided a sanctuary for plant and animal populations that have been eliminated from, or greatly reduced on, surrounding agricultural and range lands. Ongoing studies will determine if this is also true at Pantex Plant. The Hanford Reach of the Columbia River and its islands and the Pantex Plant with its playas both serve as refuges for raptorial birds and migratory waterfowl. In addition, the Hanford Reach serves as a migration route for several species of salmon, and chinook salmon and steelhead trout spawn there. Bald eagles congregate along the Hanford Reach in the fall and winter to feed on the spawned-out carcasses of salmon and on wintering waterfowl

  8. Projection of primary energy in electricity generation with evaluation of demand and supply of energy in the medium-term horizon (2020), long-term (2035) and very long term (2060)

    Mafra, Olga Y.; Alvim, Carlos Feu; Eidelman, Frida; Guimaraes, Leonam dos Santos

    2013-01-01

    The Global Energy demand and the participation of electricity in scenarios of medium (2020), long (2035) and very long (2060) terms are estimated. It is also evaluated the share of different primary energies in electricity generation and their availability in the country. Three economic scenarios were considered and different hypothesis regarding the participation of nuclear energy were analyzed. (author)

  9. Long-Term Surveillance and Maintenance Plan for the U.S. Department of Energy Amchitka, Alaska, Site

    None

    2008-09-01

    This Long-Term Surveillance and Maintenance Plan describes how the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) intends to fulfill its mission to maintain protection of human health and the environment at the Amchitka, Alaska, Site1. Three underground nuclear tests were conducted on Amchitka Island. The U.S. Department of Defense, in conjunction with the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission (AEC), conducted the first nuclear test (Long Shot) to provide data that would improve the United States' capability of detecting underground nuclear explosions. The second nuclear test (Milrow) was a weapons-related test conducted by AEC as a means to study the feasibility of detonating a much larger device. The final nuclear test (Cannikin), the largest United States underground test, was a weapons-related test. Surface disturbances associated with these tests have been remediated. However, radioactivity remains deep below the surface, contained in and around the test cavities, for which no feasible remediation technology has been identified. In 2006, the groundwater model (Hassan et al. 2002) was updated using 2005 data collected by the Consortium for Risk Evaluation with Stakeholder Participation. Model simulation results indicate there is no breakthrough or seepage of radionuclides into the marine environment within 2,000 years. The Amchitka conceptual model is reasonable; the flow and transport simulation is based on the best available information and data. The simulation results are a quantitative prediction supported by the best available science and technology. This Long-Term Surveillance and Maintenance Plan is an additional step intended for the protection of human health and the environment. This plan may be modified from time to time in the future consistent with the mission to protect human health

  10. Straw-to-soil or straw-to-energy? An optimal trade off in a long term sustainability perspective

    Monteleone, Massimo; Cammerino, Anna Rita Bernadette; Garofalo, Pasquale; Delivand, Mitra Kami

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Energy balance and GHG savings of a straw-to-electricity value chain were determined. • An “expanded” LCA was performed, from farm field to electricity delivery. • Both direct and indirect factors of land use change have been considered in the analysis. • No-tillage and crop rotation significantly improved the system performance. • A win–win, sustainable solution for the energy use of straw has been identified. - Abstract: This study examined some management strategies of wheat cultivation system and its sustainability in using straw as an energy feedstock. According to the EU regulatory framework on biofuels, no GHG emissions should be assigned to straws when they are used for energy. Given this relevance in the current energy policy, it is advisable to include all possible marginal effects related to land use, resource utilization and management changes in the comparison of different biomass options. Coherently, an expanded life cycle assessment (LCA) was applied to include the upstream cultivation phase and to make a comparison between “straw to soil” and “straw to energy”. Different crop management conditions in Southern Italy were simulated, by using the CropSyst model, to estimate the long-term soil organic carbon and annual N 2 O soil emissions. Three wheat cropping systems were considered: the conventional single wheat system without straw removal (W0) and with partial straw removal (W1), together with a no-tillage “wheat-wheat-herbage” rotation system with partial straw removal (W2). The results of the simulations were integrated in the LCA to compare fossil energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of straw-to-electricity with respect to the fossil-based electricity system. The “improved” rotational wheat cropping system (W2) gave the best performance in terms both of GHG savings and fossil displacement, thus stressing that straw use for energy generation in parallel with the optimization of the

  11. Long-Term Forecast 2012 - An impact analysis of existing policy instruments in energy- and climate area; Laangsiktsprognos 2012 - En konsekvensanalys av gaellande styrmedel inom energi- och klimatomraadet

    NONE

    2013-08-01

    The Energy Agency has a mandate that under 'Ordinance on climate reporting' (SFS 2005:626) out projections for the energy sector of the European Parliament and Council Decision No 280/2004/EC concerning a 'Mechanism for monitoring the emissions of the Community greenhouse gas'. This report contains a reference trajectory until 2030, and two sensitivity scenarios. The forecast is based on existing instruments, which means that results of the report should not be regarded as a proper projection of future energy, but as the impact of current policy instruments given different conditions such as economic growth and fuel prices. The Energy Authority's long-term forecasts are studied energy system's long-term development on the basis of policy instruments and several assumed conditions. The conditions for this long-term prognosis was established in January 2012 and has its basis in the policy instruments decided until the turn of 2011/2012. The work was partially done in conjunction with the Environmental Protection Agency assignments 'Assignment to provide input to a Swedish road map for Sweden without greenhouse gas emissions in 2050' as reported in December 2012. For a short-term development of the energy system the reader is referred to the Energy Authority's short-term forecasts that extend two to three years into the future and that are produced twice a year. Energy Agency's long-term projections are impact assessments with time horizon of 10-20 years which aims to describe the energy system's future development, provided a range of assumed conditions. If any of these conditions change it will also change forecast results. Economic development is an important assumption for the assessment of future energy.

  12. Short-term and long-term Interconnectedness of stock returns in Western Europe and the global market

    Panda, Ajaya Kumar; Nanda, Swagatika

    2017-01-01

    Background: The present study examines the short term dynamics and long term equilibrium relationship among the stock markets of 17 countries in Western Europe as well as the world market, using time series techniques. Methods: Weekly returns of market benchmark indices of the respective countries are used from the second week of 1995 to the fourth week of December 2013. Results: The study finds that the market returns of Austria, Belgium, the Netherlands, and France are relatively less dynam...

  13. Reversal of Long-Term Trends in Ethane Identified from the Global Atmosphere Watch Reactive Gases Measurement Network

    Helmig, Detlev; Buchmann, Brigitte; Carpenter, Lucy; Claude, Anja; Emmons, Louisa; Flocke, Frank; Franco, Bruno; Galbally, Ian; Hannigan, James; Hueber, Jacques; Koide, Hiroshi; Lewis, Alastair; Masarie, Ken; Mahieu, Emmanuel; Montzka, Stephen

    2016-01-01

    Reactive gases play an important role in climate and air pollution issues. They control the self-cleansing capability of the troposphere, contribute to air pollution and acid deposition, regulate the lifetimes and provide tracers for deciphering sources and sinks for greenhouse gases. Within GAW, the focus is placed on long-term, high-quality observations of ozone (O3), carbon monoxide (CO), volatile organic compounds (VOC), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and sulfur dioxide (SO2). More than 100 stati...

  14. Use of Bayesian networks classifiers for long-term mean wind turbine energy output estimation at a potential wind energy conversion site

    Carta, Jose A. [Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Campus de Tafira s/n, 35017 Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Canary Islands (Spain); Velazquez, Sergio [Department of Electronics and Automatics Engineering, University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Campus de Tafira s/n, 35017 Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Canary Islands (Spain); Matias, J.M. [Department of Statistics, University of Vigo, Lagoas Marcosende, 36200 Vigo (Spain)

    2011-02-15

    Due to the interannual variability of wind speed a feasibility analysis for the installation of a Wind Energy Conversion System at a particular site requires estimation of the long-term mean wind turbine energy output. A method is proposed in this paper which, based on probabilistic Bayesian networks (BNs), enables estimation of the long-term mean wind speed histogram for a site where few measurements of the wind resource are available. For this purpose, the proposed method allows the use of multiple reference stations with a long history of wind speed and wind direction measurements. That is to say, the model that is proposed in this paper is able to involve and make use of regional information about the wind resource. With the estimated long-term wind speed histogram and the power curve of a wind turbine it is possible to use the method of bins to determine the long-term mean energy output for that wind turbine. The intelligent system employed, the knowledgebase of which is a joint probability function of all the model variables, uses efficient calculation techniques for conditional probabilities to perform the reasoning. This enables automatic model learning and inference to be performed efficiently based on the available evidence. The proposed model is applied in this paper to wind speeds and wind directions recorded at four weather stations located in the Canary Islands (Spain). Ten years of mean hourly wind speed and direction data are available for these stations. One of the conclusions reached is that the BN with three reference stations gave fewer errors between the real and estimated long-term mean wind turbine energy output than when using two measure-correlate-predict algorithms which were evaluated and which use a linear regression between the candidate station and one reference station. (author)

  15. Use of Bayesian networks classifiers for long-term mean wind turbine energy output estimation at a potential wind energy conversion site

    Carta, Jose A.; Velazquez, Sergio; Matias, J.M.

    2011-01-01

    Due to the interannual variability of wind speed a feasibility analysis for the installation of a Wind Energy Conversion System at a particular site requires estimation of the long-term mean wind turbine energy output. A method is proposed in this paper which, based on probabilistic Bayesian networks (BNs), enables estimation of the long-term mean wind speed histogram for a site where few measurements of the wind resource are available. For this purpose, the proposed method allows the use of multiple reference stations with a long history of wind speed and wind direction measurements. That is to say, the model that is proposed in this paper is able to involve and make use of regional information about the wind resource. With the estimated long-term wind speed histogram and the power curve of a wind turbine it is possible to use the method of bins to determine the long-term mean energy output for that wind turbine. The intelligent system employed, the knowledgebase of which is a joint probability function of all the model variables, uses efficient calculation techniques for conditional probabilities to perform the reasoning. This enables automatic model learning and inference to be performed efficiently based on the available evidence. The proposed model is applied in this paper to wind speeds and wind directions recorded at four weather stations located in the Canary Islands (Spain). Ten years of mean hourly wind speed and direction data are available for these stations. One of the conclusions reached is that the BN with three reference stations gave fewer errors between the real and estimated long-term mean wind turbine energy output than when using two measure-correlate-predict algorithms which were evaluated and which use a linear regression between the candidate station and one reference station.

  16. The Development of a Long-Term, Continually Updated Global Solar Resource at 10 km Resolution: Preliminary Results From Test Processing and Continuing Plans

    Stackhouse, P.; Perez, R.; Sengupta, M.; Knapp, K.; Cox, Stephen; Mikovitz, J. Colleen; Zhang, T.; Hemker, K.; Schlemmer, J.; Kivalov, S.

    2014-01-01

    Background: Considering the likelihood of global climatic weather pattern changes and the global competition for energy resources, there is an increasing need to provide improved and continuously updated global Earth surface solar resource information. Toward this end, a project was funded under the NASA Applied Science program involving the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Langley Research Center (LaRC), National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), the State University of New York/Albany (SUNY) and the NOAA National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) to provide NREL with a global long-term advanced global solar mapping production system for improved depiction of historical solar resources and variability and to provide a mechanism for continual updates of solar resource information. This new production system is made possible by the efforts of NOAA and NASA to completely reprocess the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) data set that provides satellite visible and infrared radiances together with retrieved cloud and surface properties on a 3-hourly basis beginning from July 1983. The old version of the ISCCP data provided this information for all the world TMs available geosynchronous satellite systems and NOAA TMs AVHRR data sets at a 30 km effective resolution. This new version aims to provide a new and improved satellite calibration at an effective 10 km resolution. Thus, working with SUNY, NASA will develop and test an improved production system that will enable NREL to continually update the Earth TM solar resource. Objective and Methods: In this presentation, we provide a general overview of this project together with samples of the new solar irradiance mapped data products and comparisons to surface measurements at various locations across the world. An assessment of the solar resource values relative to calibration uncertainty and assumptions are presented. Errors resulting assumptions in snow cover and background aerosol

  17. Global observed long-term changes in temperature and precipitation extremes: A review of progress and limitations in IPCC assessments and beyond

    Lisa V. Alexander

    2016-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) first attempted a global assessment of long-term changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in its Third Assessment Report in 2001. While data quality and coverage were limited, the report still concluded that heavy precipitation events had increased and that there had been, very likely, a reduction in the frequency of extreme low temperatures and increases in the frequency of extreme high temperatures. That overall assessment had ch...

  18. Analysis of high-frequency energy in long-term average spectra of singing, speech, and voiceless fricatives

    Monson, Brian B.; Lotto, Andrew J.; Story, Brad H.

    2012-01-01

    The human singing and speech spectrum includes energy above 5 kHz. To begin an in-depth exploration of this high-frequency energy (HFE), a database of anechoic high-fidelity recordings of singers and talkers was created and analyzed. Third-octave band analysis from the long-term average spectra showed that production level (soft vs normal vs loud), production mode (singing vs speech), and phoneme (for voiceless fricatives) all significantly affected HFE characteristics. Specifically, increased production level caused an increase in absolute HFE level, but a decrease in relative HFE level. Singing exhibited higher levels of HFE than speech in the soft and normal conditions, but not in the loud condition. Third-octave band levels distinguished phoneme class of voiceless fricatives. Female HFE levels were significantly greater than male levels only above 11 kHz. This information is pertinent to various areas of acoustics, including vocal tract modeling, voice synthesis, augmentative hearing technology (hearing aids and cochlear implants), and training/therapy for singing and speech. PMID:22978902

  19. Analysis of high-frequency energy in long-term average spectra of singing, speech, and voiceless fricatives.

    Monson, Brian B; Lotto, Andrew J; Story, Brad H

    2012-09-01

    The human singing and speech spectrum includes energy above 5 kHz. To begin an in-depth exploration of this high-frequency energy (HFE), a database of anechoic high-fidelity recordings of singers and talkers was created and analyzed. Third-octave band analysis from the long-term average spectra showed that production level (soft vs normal vs loud), production mode (singing vs speech), and phoneme (for voiceless fricatives) all significantly affected HFE characteristics. Specifically, increased production level caused an increase in absolute HFE level, but a decrease in relative HFE level. Singing exhibited higher levels of HFE than speech in the soft and normal conditions, but not in the loud condition. Third-octave band levels distinguished phoneme class of voiceless fricatives. Female HFE levels were significantly greater than male levels only above 11 kHz. This information is pertinent to various areas of acoustics, including vocal tract modeling, voice synthesis, augmentative hearing technology (hearing aids and cochlear implants), and training/therapy for singing and speech.

  20. Long-term global and regional brain volume changes following severe traumatic brain injury: A longitudinal study with clinical correlates

    Sidaros, Annette; Skimminge, Arnold Jesper Møller; Liptrot, Matthew George

    2009-01-01

    with percent brain volume change (%BVC) ranging between − 0.6% and − 9.4% (mean − 4.0%). %BVC correlated significantly with injury severity, functional status at both scans, and with 1-year outcome. Moreover, %BVC improved prediction of long-term functional status over and above what could be predicted using......Traumatic brain injury (TBI) results in neurodegenerative changes that progress for months, perhaps even years post-injury. However, there is little information on the spatial distribution and the clinical significance of this late atrophy. In 24 patients who had sustained severe TBI we acquired 3D...... scan time point using SIENAX. Regional distribution of atrophy was evaluated using tensor-based morphometry (TBM). At the first scan time point, brain parenchymal volume was reduced by mean 8.4% in patients as compared to controls. During the scan interval, patients exhibited continued atrophy...

  1. Investigation of Long-Term Impacts of Urbanization when Considering Global Warming for a Coastal Tropical Region

    Gonalez, Jorge E.; Comarazamy, Daniel E.; Luvall, Jeffrey C.; Rickman, Douglas L.; Smith, T.

    2010-01-01

    The overachieving goal of this project is to gain a better understanding of the climate impacts caused by the combined effects of land cover and land use (LCLU) changes and increasing global concentrations of green house gases (GHG) in tropical coastal areas, regions where global, regional and local climate phenomena converge, taking as the test case the densely populated northeast region of the Caribbean island of Puerto Rico. The research uses an integrated approach of high-resolution remote sensing information linked to a high resolution Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), which was employed to perform ensembles of climate simulations (combining 2-LCLU and 2-GHG concentration scenarios). Reconstructed agricultural maps are used to define past LCLU, and combined with reconstructed sea surface temperatures (SST) for the same period form the PAST climate scenario (1951-1956); while the PRESENT scenario (2000-2004) was additionally supported by high resolution remote sensing data (10-m-res). The climate reconstruction approach is validated with available observed climate data from surface weather stations for both periods of time simulated. The selection of the past and present climate scenarios considers large-scale biases (i.e. ENSO/NAO) as reflected in the region of interest. Direct and cross comparison of the results is allowing quantifying single, combined, and competitive effects. Results indicate that global GHG have dominant effects on minimum temperatures (following regional tendencies), while urban sprawl dominates maximum temperatures. To further investigate impacts of land use the Bowen Ratio and the thermal response number (TRN) are analyzed. The Bowen ratio indicates that forestation of past agricultural high areas have an overwhelmingly mitigation effect on increasing temperatures observed in different LCLU scenarios, but when abandoned agricultural lands are located in plains, the resulting shrub/grass lands produce higher surface

  2. Long-term impact of the ketogenic diet on growth and resting energy expenditure in children with intractable epilepsy.

    Groleau, Veronique; Schall, Joan I; Stallings, Virginia A; Bergqvist, Christina A

    2014-09-01

    The long-term effects of the ketogenic diet, a high fat diet for treating intractable epilepsy, on resting energy expenditure (REE) are unknown. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of 15 months of ketogenic diet treatment on growth and REE in children with intractable epilepsy. Growth, body composition, and REE were assessed at baseline, 3 months and 15 months in 24 children (14 males, 10 females; mean age 5 y 6 mo [SD 26 mo], range 7 mo-6 y 5 mo), 10 with cerebral palsy [CP]). Fifteen were identified as ketogenic diet responders at 3 months and continued on the ketogenic diet until 15 months. These were compared to 75 healthy children (43 males, 32 females; mean age 6 y 3 mo [SD 21 mo] age range 2-9 y). REE was expressed as percentage predicted, growth as height (HAz) and weight (WAz) z-scores, and body composition as fat and fat free mass (FFM). HAz declined -0.2 and -0.6 from baseline to 3 months and 15 months respectively (p = 0.001), while WAz was unchanged. In ketogenic diet responders, FFM, age and CP diagnosis predicted REE (overall R(2) = 0.76, pketogenic diet, linear growth status declined while weight status and REE were unchanged. REE remained reduced in children with CP. © 2014 Mac Keith Press.

  3. Long-term impact of the ketogenic diet on growth and resting energy expenditure in children with intractable epilepsy

    GROLEAU, VERONIQUE; SCHALL, JOAN I; STALLINGS, VIRGINIA A; BERGQVIST, CHRISTINA A

    2014-01-01

    AIM The long-term effects of the ketogenic diet, a high fat diet for treating intractable epilepsy, on resting energy expenditure (REE) are unknown. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of 15 months of ketogenic diet treatment on growth and REE in children with intractable epilepsy. METHOD Growth, body composition and REE were assessed at baseline, 3 and 15 months in 24 children (14 males, 10 females; mean age 5y 6mo (SD 26mo), range 7mo–6y 5mo), 10 with cerebral palsy [CP]). Fifteen were identified as ketogenic diet responders at 3 months and continued on the ketogenic diet until 15 months. These were compared to 75 healthy children (43 males, 32 females; mean age 6y 3mo [SD 21mo] age range 2–9y). REE was expressed as percentage predicted, growth as height (HAz) and weight (WAz) z-scores, and body composition as fat and fat free mass (FFM). RESULTS HAz declined −0.2 and −0.6 from baseline to 3 and 15 months, respectively (p=0.001), while WAz was unchanged. In ketogenic diet responders, FFM, age and CP diagnosis predicted REE (overall R2=0.76, pketogenic diet, linear growth status declined while weight status and REE were unchanged. REE remained reduced in children with CP. PMID:24749520

  4. Incorporating technology buying behaviour into UK-based long term domestic stock energy models to provide improved policy analysis

    Lee, Timothy; Yao, Runming

    2013-01-01

    The UK has a target for an 80% reduction in CO 2 emissions by 2050 from a 1990 base. Domestic energy use accounts for around 30% of total emissions. This paper presents a comprehensive review of existing models and modelling techniques and indicates how they might be improved by considering individual buying behaviour. Macro (top-down) and micro (bottom-up) models have been reviewed and analysed. It is found that bottom-up models can project technology diffusion due to their higher resolution. The weakness of existing bottom-up models at capturing individual green technology buying behaviour has been identified. Consequently, Markov chains, neural networks and agent-based modelling are proposed as possible methods to incorporate buying behaviour within a domestic energy forecast model. Among the three methods, agent-based models are found to be the most promising, although a successful agent approach requires large amounts of input data. A prototype agent-based model has been developed and tested, which demonstrates the feasibility of an agent approach. This model shows that an agent-based approach is promising as a means to predict the effectiveness of various policy measures. - Highlights: ► Long term energy models are reviewed with a focus on UK domestic stock models. ► Existing models are found weak in modelling green technology buying behaviour. ► Agent models, Markov chains and neural networks are considered as solutions. ► Agent-based modelling (ABM) is found to be the most promising approach. ► A prototype ABM is developed and testing indicates a lot of potential.

  5. ESTIMATION OF LONG-TERM INVESTMENT PROJECTS WITH ENERGY-EFFICIENT SOLUTIONS BASED ON LIFE CYCLE COSTS INDICATOR

    Bazhenov Viktor Ivanovich

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The starting stage of the tender procedures in Russia with the participation of foreign suppliers dictates the feasibility of the developments for economical methods directed to comparison of technical solutions on the construction field. The article describes the example of practical Life Cycle Cost (LCC evaluations under respect of Present Value (PV determination. These create a possibility for investor to estimate long-term projects (indicated as 25 years as commercially profitable, taking into account inflation rate, interest rate, real discount rate (indicated as 5 %. For economic analysis air-blower station of WWTP was selected as a significant energy consumer. Technical variants for the comparison of blower types are: 1 - multistage without control, 2 - multistage with VFD control, 3 - single stage double vane control. The result of LCC estimation shows the last variant as most attractive or cost-effective for investments with economy of 17,2 % (variant 1 and 21,0 % (variant 2 under adopted duty conditions and evaluations of capital costs (Cic + Cin with annual expenditure related (Ce+Co+Cm. The adopted duty conditions include daily and seasonal fluctuations of air flow. This was the reason for the adopted energy consumption as, kW∙h: 2158 (variant 1,1743...2201 (variant 2, 1058...1951 (variant 3. The article refers to Europump guide tables in order to simplify sophisticated factors search (Cp /Cn, df, which can be useful for economical analyses in Russia. Example of evaluations connected with energy-efficient solutions is given, but this reference involves the use of materials for the cases with resource savings, such as all types of fuel. In conclusion follows the assent to use LCC indicator jointly with the method of determining discounted cash flows, that will satisfy the investor’s need for interest source due to technical and economical comparisons.

  6. The long-term forecast of Pakistan's electricity supply and demand: An application of long range energy alternatives planning

    Perwez, Usama; Sohail, Ahmed; Hassan, Syed Fahad; Zia, Usman

    2015-01-01

    The long-term forecasting of electricity demand and supply has assumed significant importance in fundamental research to provide sustainable solutions to the electricity issues. In this article, we provide an overview of structure of electric power sector of Pakistan and a summary of historical electricity demand & supply data, current status of divergent set of energy policies as a framework for development and application of a LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternate Planning) model of Pakistan's electric power sector. Pakistan's LEAP model is used to analyze the supply policy selections and demand assumptions for future power generation system on the basis of economics, technicality and implicit environmental implications. Three scenarios are enacted over the study period (2011–2030) which include BAU (Business-As-Usual), NC (New Coal) & GF (Green Future). The results of these scenarios are compared in terms of projected electricity demand & supply, net present cost analysis (discount rate at 4%, 7% and 10%) and GHG (greenhouse gas) emission reductions, along with sensitivity analysis to study the effect of varying parameters on total cost. A concluding section illustrates the policy implications of model for futuristic power generation and environmental policies in Pakistan. - Highlights: • Pakistan-specific electricity demand model is presented. • None of the scenarios exceeded the price of 12 US Cents/kWh. • By 2030, fuel cost is the most dominant factor to influence electricity per unit cost. • By 2030, CO_2 emissions per unit electricity will increase significantly in coal scenario relative to others. • By 2030, the penetration of renewable energy and conservation policies can save 70.6 tWh electricity.

  7. Long-term sampling of CO2 from waste-to-energy plants: 14C determination methodology, data variation and uncertainty

    Fuglsang, Karsten; Pedersen, Niels Hald; Larsen, Anna Warberg

    2014-01-01

    A dedicated sampling and measurement method was developed for long-term measurements of biogenic and fossil-derived CO2 from thermal waste-to-energy processes. Based on long-term sampling of CO2 and 14C determination, plant-specific emission factors can be determined more accurately, and the annual...... emission of fossil CO2 from waste-to-energy plants can be monitored according to carbon trading schemes and renewable energy certificates. Weekly and monthly measurements were performed at five Danish waste incinerators. Significant variations between fractions of biogenic CO2 emitted were observed...... was ± 4.0 pmC (95 % confidence interval) at 62 pmC. The long-term sampling method was found to be useful for waste incinerators for determination of annual fossil and biogenic CO2 emissions with relatively low uncertainty....

  8. Long-term security in energy supplies - the contribution of coal; Dlugofalowe bezpieczenstwo w dostawach energii - udzial wegla

    Schiffer, W. [RWE Power AG, Essen (Germany)

    2004-07-01

    The paper presents the case for coal as an important pillar in a wide and balanced mix of energy sources. Both domestic lignite and hard coal can be made available at relatively low cost. With coal powering power plants it is possible to achieve all energy policy goals of economic efficiency, security of supply and environmental compatibility. The paper includes much information on the global coal trade, particularly seaborne trade. 4 refs., 26 figs.

  9. A nonparametric approach for evaluating long-term energy policy scenarios: An application to the Greek energy system

    Halkos, George; Tzeremes, Nickolaos; Tzeremes, Panagiotis

    2014-01-01

    This paper by using Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) constructs four different renewable energy scenarios for the Greek transport, energy, and industry sectors. By projecting the demand for renewable energy and the associated resulting carbon dioxide emissions up to the years 2020 and 2030, the paper applies in a second stage data envelopment analysis (DEA) evaluating the Greek renewable energy policy. As a result, it provides a quantitative measure for future renewable e...

  10. Long-term energy efficiency analysis requires solid energy statistics: The case of the German basic chemical industry

    Saygin, D.; Worrell, E.; Tam, C.; Trudeau, N.; Gielen, D.J.; Weiss, M.; Patel, M.K.

    2012-01-01

    Analyzing the chemical industry’s energy use is challenging because of the sector’s complexity and the prevailing uncertainty in energy use and production data. We develop an advanced bottom-up model (PIE-Plus) which encompasses the energy use of the 139 most important chemical processes. We apply this model in a case study to analyze the German basic chemical industry’s energy use and energy efficiency improvements in the period between 1995 and 2008. We compare our results with data from the German Energy Balances and with data published by the International Energy Agency (IEA). We find that our model covers 88% of the basic chemical industry’s total final energy use (including non-energy use) as reported in the German Energy Balances. The observed energy efficiency improvements range between 2.2 and 3.5% per year, i.e., they are on the higher side of the values typically reported in literature. Our results point to uncertainties in the basic chemical industry’s final energy use as reported in the energy statistics and the specific energy consumption values. More efforts are required to improve the quality of the national and international energy statistics to make them useable for reliable monitoring of energy efficiency improvements of the chemical industry. -- Highlights: ► An advanced model was developed to estimate German chemical industry’s energy use. ► For the base year (2000), model covers 88% of the sector’s total final energy use. ► Sector’s energy efficiency improved between 2.2 and 3.5%/yr between 1995 and 2008. ► Improved energy statistics are required for accurate monitoring of improvements.

  11. CO sub 2 emissions from developing countries: Better understanding the role of Energy in the long term

    Ketoff, A.; Sathaye, J.; Goldman, N. (eds.)

    1991-07-01

    Recent years have witnessed a growing recognition of the link between emissions of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) and changes in the global climate. Of all anthropogenic activities, energy production and use generate the single largest portion of these greenhouse gases. Although developing countries currently account for a small share of global carbon emissions, their contribution is increasing rapidly. Due to the rapid expansion of energy demand in these nations, the developing world's share in global modern energy use rose from 16 to 27 percent between 1970 and 1990. If the growth rates observed over the past 20 years persist energy demand in developing will surpass that in the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) early in the 21st century. The study seeks to examine the forces that galvanize the growth of energy use and carbon emissions, to assess the likely future levels of energy and CO{sub 2} in selected developing nations and to identify opportunities for restraining this growth. The purpose of this report is to provide the quantitative information needed to develop effective policy options, not to identify the options themselves. These individual studies were conducted fro Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and Venezuela in Latin America.

  12. CO sub 2 emissions from developing countries: Better understanding the role of energy in the long term

    Sathaye, J.; Goldman, N. (eds.)

    1991-07-01

    Recent years have witnessed a growing recognition of the link between emissions of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) and changes in the global climate. of all anthropogenic activities, energy production and use generate the single largest portion of these greenhouse gases. Although developing countries currently account for a small share of global carbon emissions, their contribution is increasing rapidly. Due to the rapid expansion of energy demand in these nations, the developing world's share in global modern energy use rose from 16 to 27 percent between 1970 and 1990. If the growth rates observed over the past 20 years persist, energy demand in developing nations will surpass that in the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) early in the 21st century. The study seeks to examine the forces that galvanize the growth of energy use and carbon emissions, to assess the likely future levels of energy and CO{sub 2} in selected developing nations and to identify opportunities for restraining this growth. The purpose of this report is to provide the quantitative information needed to develop effective policy options, not to identify the options themselves. A combined study was carried out for the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates).

  13. Analysis of the Syrian long-term energy and electricity demand projection using the end-use methodology

    Hainoun, A.; Seif-Eldin, M.K.; Almoustafa, S.

    2006-01-01

    A comprehensive analysis of the possible future long-term development of Syrian energy and electricity demand covering the period 1999-2030 is presented. The analysis was conducted using the IAEA's model MAED, which relies upon the end-use approach. This model has been validated during the last two decades through the successful application in many developing countries, even those having partial market economy and energy subsidy. Starting from the base year, final energy consumption distributed by energy forms and consumption sectors, the future energy and electricity demand has been projected according to three different scenarios reflecting the possible future demographic, socio-economic and technological development of the country. These scenarios are constructed to cover a plausible range, in which future evolution factors affecting energy demand are expected to lie. The first is a high economy scenario (HS) representing the reference case, which is characterized by high gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (average annual about 6%) and moderate improved technologies in the various consumption sectors. The second is an energy efficiency scenario (ES), which is identical to HS in all main parameters except these relating to the efficiency improvement and conservation measures. Here, high technology improvement and more effective conservation measures in all consumption sectors are proposed and the role of solar to substitute fossil energy for heating purposes is considered effectively. The third is a low economy scenario (LS) with low GDP growth rate (average annual about 3.5%) and less technology improvement in the consumption sectors. As a consequence, the improvement in the energy efficiency is low and the influence of conservation measures is less effective. Starting from about 10.5mtoe final energy in the base year, the analysis shows that the projected energy demand will grow annually at average rates of 5%, 4.5% and 3% for the HS, ES and LS

  14. Evaluation of the long-term agreement on energy efficiency in the mushroom sector [in the Netherlands]; Evaluatie Meerjaren Afspraak energie in de Paddestoelensector

    Lemmens, P.A.E. [et al.] [HAS KennisTransfer, Den Bosch (Netherlands)

    2005-08-15

    In 1998, the Long-Term Agreement on energy efficiency for the mushroom cultivation sector was signed by the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs and representatives of the mushroom cultivation sector. The main consideration were improvement of the sector's image, cost reductions, increasing awareness and preservation of a relatively beneficial energy rate. In the Long-Term Agreement, the target for 2005 was to realize an energy efficiency improvement of 20% compared to the year 1995 (reference year) and to strive for 5% sustainable energy deployment in 2005 [Dutch] In 1998 is de Meerjarenafspraak Energie voor de paddestoelensector ondertekend door het Ministerie van Economische Zaken en de vertegenwoordiging van de paddestoelensector met als belangrijkste overwegingen verbetering van het imago van de sector, kostenbeperking, bewustwording en behoud van een relatief voordelig energietarief. In de Meerjarenafspraak is als doel gesteld om in 2005 een verbetering van de energie-efficiency te realiseren van 20% ten opzichte van het jaar 1995 (basisjaar) en te streven naar 5% gebruik van duurzame energie in 2005.

  15. Stochastic Modeling of Long-Term and Extreme Value Estimation of Wind and Sea Conditions for Probabilistic Reliability Assessments of Wave Energy Devices

    Ambühl, Simon; Kofoed, Jens Peter; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2014-01-01

    Wave energy power plants are expected to become one of the major future contribution to the sustainable electricity production. Optimal design of wave energy power plants is associated with modeling of physical, statistical, measurement and model uncertainties. This paper presents stochastic models...... for the significant wave height, the mean zero-crossing wave period and the wind speed for long-term and extreme estimations. The long-term estimation focuses on annual statistical distributions, the inter-annual variation of distribution parameters and the statistical uncertainty due to limited amount of data...

  16. Fiscal 1999 survey report on long-term energy technological strategies and the like. Long-term energy technological strategy survey (Medium-term energy technological strategy survey); 1999 nendo choki energy gijutsu senryaku nado ni kansuru chosa hokokusho. Choki energy gijutsu senryaku chosa (chuki energy gijutsu senryaku chosa)

    NONE

    2000-03-01

    Energy strategies to be implemented under the New Sunshine Program by around 2010 have been compiled, with nation's industrial technological strategies, long-term energy outlook, and the like taken into consideration. The present survey aims to work out medium-term energy technological strategies. In Chapter 2, by conducting studies on the state of energy strategies in the national industry technological strategies as primarily compiled, long-term energy supply and demand outlook, and the history so far of the New Sunshine Program, and social conditions surrounding energy/environmental technologies and energy conditions are arranged in order and then analyzed with a view to deriving social needs. In Chapter 3, in view of the derived social needs, medium-term energy technological strategies are broken down into strategic target details, based on the important regions and major and minor strategic targets of the national industry technological strategies. In Chapter 4, medium-term energy technological strategies are worked out. In Chapter 5, 'basic ideas,' 'measures for promoting technology development,' 'return of the fruits to society' are mentioned as the methods of realizing the strategies. In Chapter 6, surveys and researches are summarized, and future development is predicted. (NEDO)

  17. Fiscal 1999 survey report on long-term energy technological strategies and the like. Long-term energy technological strategy survey (Medium-term energy technological strategy survey); 1999 nendo choki energy gijutsu senryaku nado ni kansuru chosa hokokusho. Choki energy gijutsu senryaku chosa (chuki energy gijutsu senryaku chosa)

    NONE

    2000-03-01

    Energy strategies to be implemented under the New Sunshine Program by around 2010 have been compiled, with nation's industrial technological strategies, long-term energy outlook, and the like taken into consideration. The present survey aims to work out medium-term energy technological strategies. In Chapter 2, by conducting studies on the state of energy strategies in the national industry technological strategies as primarily compiled, long-term energy supply and demand outlook, and the history so far of the New Sunshine Program, and social conditions surrounding energy/environmental technologies and energy conditions are arranged in order and then analyzed with a view to deriving social needs. In Chapter 3, in view of the derived social needs, medium-term energy technological strategies are broken down into strategic target details, based on the important regions and major and minor strategic targets of the national industry technological strategies. In Chapter 4, medium-term energy technological strategies are worked out. In Chapter 5, 'basic ideas,' 'measures for promoting technology development,' 'return of the fruits to society' are mentioned as the methods of realizing the strategies. In Chapter 6, surveys and researches are summarized, and future development is predicted. (NEDO)

  18. Guidelines for DOE Long Term Civilian Research and Development. Volume III. Basic Energy Sciences, High Energy and Nuclear Physics

    1985-12-01

    The Research Panel prepared two reports. This report reviews the Department of Energy's Basic Energy Sciences, High Energy Physics, and Nuclear Physics programs. The second report examines the Environment, Health and Safety programs in the Department. This summary addresses the general value and priority of basic research programs for the Department of Energy and the nation. In addition, it describes the key strategic issues and major recommendations for each program area

  19. Long-term energy balance and vegetation water stress monitoring of Mediterranean oak savanna using satellite thermal data

    González-Dugo, Maria P.; Chen, Xuelong; Andreu, Ana; Carpintero, Elisabet; Gómez-Giraldez, Pedro; Su, Z.(Bob)

    2017-04-01

    Drought is one of the major hazards faced by natural and cropped vegetation in the Mediterranean Sea Basin. Water scarcity is likely to be worsened under the predicted conditions of climate change, which is expected to make this region both warmer and drier. A Holm oak savanna, known as dehesa in Spain and montado in Portugal, is an agro-silvo-pastoral system occupying more than 3 million hectares the Iberian Peninsula and Greece. It consists of widely-spaced oak trees (mostly Quercus ilex L.), combined with crops, pasture and Mediterranean shrubs. This ecosystem is considered an example of sustainable land use, supporting a large number of species and diversity of habitats and for its importance in rural economy. A similar ecosystem is worldwide distributed in areas with Mediterranean climate (as California or South Africa) and shares structural and functional properties with tropical savannas in Africa, Australia and South America. Remote sensing time series can assist the monitoring of the energy balance components, with special attention to the evapotranspiration and vegetation water stress over these areas. Long-term data analysis may improve our understanding of the functioning of the system, helping to assess drought impacts and leading to reduce the economic and environmental vulnerability of this ecosystem. This work analyzes the evolution the surface energy balance components, mapping the evapotranspiration and moisture stress of holm oak woodlands of Spain and Portugal during the last 15 years (2001-2015). The surface energy balance model (SEBS) has been applied over the Iberian Peninsula on a monthly time scale and 0.05° spatial resolution, using multi-satellite and meteorological forcing data. Modelled energy and water fluxes have been validated using ground measurements of two eddy covariance towers located in oak savanna sites during 3 years, resulting in moderate deviations from observations (10-25 W/m2). The departure of actual ET from the

  20. Long-term Observations of Ecohydrology, Climate, Energy Fluxes, and Eddy Covariance Error in a Large, Semiarid Floodplain

    Cleverly, J. R.; Thibault, J. R.; Dahm, C. N.; Allred Coonrod, J. E.; Slusher, M.; Teet, S.; Schuetz, J.

    2008-12-01

    Some of the highest rates of water and energy fluxes between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere occur over large floodplains in arid and semiarid areas. Often located in high-pressure zones near 35 degrees latitude, abundant radiation and easily accessible groundwater contribute few limitations on growth and production in desert phreatophytes. Desert regions typically undergo cycles of drought and floods, and phreatophytic communities wax or wane in cover, density, and structure with cumulative species responses to timing and severity in these regional weather cycles. The Rio-ET Laboratory at the University of New Mexico has been collecting long-term data from a flux network of riparian monitoring stations, mounted on towers along the Middle Rio Grande. Ongoing measurements of energy, water and carbon dioxide fluxes, groundwater dynamics, meteorology, leaf area index, and community dynamics began at some locations in 1999. Recent reanalysis of the flux dataset was performed in which error correction procedures were compared to each and other and in relation to an irrigated crop under advection. Most riparian sites exhibited stable atmospheric stratification and an energy balance consistent with evaporative cooling. Evaporative cooling was more prominent in the late afternoon and evening, during wet conditions. Reduced latent heat fluxes were observed in a cottonwood forest following restoration and fire, but only in years when the forest floor was not re-vegetated by opportunistic annuals or target removal species. Water use by riparian phreatophytes was 1) non-responsive to drought during the monsoon season (non-native Russian olive and monospecific saltcedar communities), 2) responded negatively to monsoon-season drought (xeroriparian saltcedar and saltgrass mosaic community), or 3) responded positively to monsoon-season drought (cottonwood forests). Water salvage related to ecological restoration is dependent upon restoration strategy, emphasizing the

  1. Integrating Long-Term Avian Studies with Planning and Adaptive Management: Department of Energy Lands as a Case Study.

    Burger, J.

    2000-10-01

    Long-term bio-monitoring of avian communities have been initiated, but they often lack a management component. Integration of the managers needs at an early stage is suggested as a means to increase the use of the data. Variation in community structure is important in understanding impacts. In addition, reference site must be carefully selected.

  2. Exploring the possibilities for setting up sustainable energy systems for the long term: two visions for the Dutch energy system in 2050

    Treffers, D.J.; Faaij, A.P.C.; Spakman, J.; Seebregts, A.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, two long-term visions of the Dutch future energy system are composed, analysed and evaluated. Both visions were set up to meet the requirement to reduce the GHG emissions with 80% in 2050 in comparison to 1990. The two visions start from very different perspectives and contexts. Quantitative analysis shows that when economic growth and energy use follow a business as usual development, emissions of GreenHouse Gases (GHG) can increase up to 250% of 1990 levels. The two, rather opposing, visions show that it is feasible to combine (strong) economic growth with far going reduction of GHG emissions, provided a number of key options are developed and applied. These options were chosen and discussed during several meetings by stakeholders in a dialogue process, using feedback from scientists, and consist of improvements in energy efficiency in industry, CO 2 neutral feedstocks for transportation, renewable energy and highly insulated buildings in the built environment and improvements in the primary production of the agricultural sector. It is clear that drastic changes in many areas in society are required to obtain the desired GHG-emission levels in 2050. The results also show though, that such a development can be realised in different ways. In other words, there are various ways to implement a low GHG emission economy in the long term

  3. Constructing a coherent long-term global total ozone climatology from the BUV, MFR, and SBUV/TOMS data sets

    Ellis, J.S.; Luther, F.M.

    1986-02-01

    The backscatter ultraviolet spectrometer (BUV) aboard the NIMBUS 4 satellite provided global ozone data until mid-1977. The Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and Solar Backscattered Ultraviolet (SBUV) instrument aboard the NIMBUS 7 satellite began providing global ozone in November 1978. The only satellite derived global total ozone data available between the termination of the BUV data and the startup of the SBUV/TOMS data is that from the Multichannel Filter Radiometer (MFR) instrument aboard the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) series of satellites. The MFR and the SBUV/TOMS data are compared during the data overlap period in order to determine how well the MFR data might be used to represent the SBUV/TOMS and BUV data during the data gap period. 5 refs., 3 figs., 3 tabs

  4. Studies on nuclear fusion energy potential based on a long-term world energy and environment model

    Tokimatsu, K.; Fujino, J.; Asaoka, Y.

    2001-01-01

    This study investigates introduction conditions and potential of nuclear fusion energy as energy supply and CO 2 mitigation technologies in the 21st century. Time horizon of the 21st century, 10 regionally allocated world energy/environment model (Linearized Dynamic New Earth 21) is used for this study. Following nuclear fusion technological data are taken into consideration: cost of electricity (COE) in nuclear fusion introduction year, annual COE reduction rates, regional introduction year, and maximum regional plant capacity constraints by maximum plant construction speed. We made simulation under a constraint of atmospheric CO 2 concentration of 550 parts per million by volume (ppmv) targeted at year 2100, assuming that sequestration technologies and unknown innovative technologies for CO 2 reduction are available. The results indicate that under the 550ppm scenario with nuclear fusion within maximum construction speed, 66mill/kWh is required for introducing nuclear fusion in 2050, 92 mill/kWh in 2060, and 106 mill/kWh in 2070. Therefore, tokamak type nuclear fusion reactors of present several reactor cost estimates are expected to be introduced between 2060 and 2070, and electricity generation fraction by nuclear fusion will go around 20% in 2100 if nuclear fusion energy growth is limited only by the maximum construction speed. CO 2 reduction by nuclear fusion introduced in 2050 from business-as-usual (BAU) scenario without nuclear fusion is about 20% of total reduction amount in 2100. In conclusion, nuclear fusion energy is revealed to be one of the candidates of energy supply technologies and CO 2 mitigation technologies. Cost competitiveness and removal of capacity constraint factors are desired for use of nuclear fusion energy in a large scale. (author)

  5. Evaluation of economical introduction of nuclear fusion based on a long-term world energy and environment model

    Tokimatsu, K.; Asaoka, Y.; Okano, K.; Konishi, S.; Ogawa, Y.; Yamaji, K.

    2003-01-01

    Debates about whether or not to invest heavily in nuclear fusion as a future innovative energy option have been made within the context of energy technology development strategies. The time frame by which nuclear fusion could become competitive in the energy market has not been adequately studied, nor has roles of the nuclear fusion in energy systems and the environment. The present study has two objectives. One is to reveal the conditions under which nuclear fusion could be introduced economically (hereafter, we refer to such introductory conditions as breakeven prices) in future energy systems. The other objective is to evaluate the future roles of nuclear fusion in energy systems and in the environment. Here we chose two roles that nuclear fusion will take on when breakeven prices are achieved: i) reduction of annual global total energy systems cost, and ii) mitigation of carbon tax (shadow price of carbon) under CO 2 constraints. Future uncertainties are key issues in evaluating nuclear fusion. Here we treated the following uncertainties: energy demand scenarios, introduction time frame for nuclear fusion, capacity projections of nuclear fusion, CO 2 target in 2100. From our investigations, we conclude that the presently designed nuclear fusion reactors may be ready for economical introduction into energy systems beginning around 2050-2060, and we can confirm that the favorable introduction of the reactors would reduce both the annual energy systems cost and the carbon tax (the shadow price of carbon) under a CO 2 concentration constraint; however, latter introduction of them decreases the cost and the tax less than five times. Earlier introduction of nuclear fusion reactors are desirable for energy systems and environment. (author)

  6. Exploring synergies between climate and air quality policies using long-term global and regional emission scenarios

    Braspenning Radu, Olivia; van den Berg, Maarten; Klimont, Zbigniew; Deetman, Sebastiaan; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Muntean, Marilena; Heyes, Chris; Dentener, Frank; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    Abstract In this paper, we present ten scenarios developed using the IMAGE2.4 framework (Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment) to explore how different assumptions on future climate and air pollution policies influence emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants. These scenarios

  7. Long-Term Outcome of Low-Energy Extracorporeal Shock Wave Therapy for Plantar Fasciitis: Comparative Analysis According to Ultrasonographic Findings

    Park, Jong-Wan; Yoon, Kyungjae; Chun, Kwang-Soo; Lee, Joon-Youn; Park, Hee-Jin; Lee, So-Yeon

    2014-01-01

    Objective To investigate the long-term effect of low-energy extracorporeal shock wave therapy (ESWT) for plantar fasciitis (PF) according to ultrasonography (US) findings. Methods Thirty feet of 25 patients with clinical diagnosis of PF were enrolled and divided into two groups (Apparent-US and Uncertain-US) according to US findings, such as plantar fascia thickening or hypoechogenicity. Inclusion criteria were symptom duration >6 months and a fair or poor grade in Roles-Maudsley score (RMS). ESWT (0.10 mJ/mm2, 600 shocks) was given once a week for 6 weeks. Numeric rating scale (NRS) and RMS were evaluated prior to each ESWT session, at short-term follow-up (one week after all ESWT sessions) and long-term follow-up telephone interview (mean 24 months after ESWT). Good and excellent grade in RMS were considered as treatment success. Results Repeated measure ANOVA demonstrated that NRS significantly decreased with time after ESWT up to the long-term follow-up (time effect, p<0.001) without group-time interaction (p=0.641), indicating that ESWT equally decreased pain in both groups. Overall success rate was 63.3% (short-term follow-up) and 80.0% (long-term follow-up). In comparative analysis between groups, success rate of Apparent-US and Uncertain-US at short-term follow-up was 61.9% and 66.7%, respectively, and 85.7% and 66.7%, respectively, at long-term follow-up. Conclusion If other causes of heel pain are ruled out through meticulous physical examination and ultrasonography, low-energy ESWT in PF seems to be beneficial regardless of US findings. In terms of success rate, however, long-term outcome of Apparent-US appears to be superior to Uncertain-US. PMID:25229032

  8. Alternative long term strategies for sustainable development: Rapidly increasing electricity consumption in Asian countries and future role of nuclear energy

    Sagawa, N.

    1997-01-01

    Many people in the world express the concern that global warming will become an increasingly serious problem. A rapid increase in population and demand for energy in the Asian region must be discussed in this context. Despite the forecast of an increase in demand for energy, the Asian region is short of oil and natural gas resources. In addition, only less energy can be supplied by renewable energy sources in the Asian region than in the other regions because of high population density. Nuclear energy is an important energy resource for fulfilling the future increasing energy demand in the Asian region and for contributing to the suppression of carbon dioxide emissions. In the Asian region alone, however, we cannot rely limitlessly on LWR which does not use plutonium. According to a scenario analysis, the total capacity of nuclear power plants in the Asian region would reach large scale and the cumulative amount of demand for natural uranium will increase to about 5 million tons in the Asian region alone. Just the nuclear power plants of this scale in Asia alone will rapidly consume the world's cheap natural uranium resources if we rely only on natural uranium. In the Asian region, few countries have embarked on nuclear power generation and the capacity of equipment is still small. Currently, however, many plans for nuclear power generation are being designed. Many Asian countries obviously consider nuclear power generation as a valid option. Many potential policies must be examined in the light of future uncertainty. In the future, both renewable energy and nuclear energy must be resorted to. When nuclear energy is utilized, the use of plutonium and FBR in the Asian region must be taken into account in order to attain continual growth and development. (author)

  9. Does nuclear energy save global environment?

    Matsui, Kazuaki

    2006-01-01

    Since the ecological footprint analysis in 1970s suggested changing consumption patterns and overpopulation concerns, energy policy such as energy conservation and use of renewable energy has become of prime importance. Several results of the long-term energy demand and supply analysis in 2050 or 2100 to reduce drastically carbon dioxide emission as a measure against global warming, showed the necessity of nuclear power deployment as well as maximum efforts to save energy, exploitation of the separation and disposal of carbon dioxide, and shifting energy sources to fuels that emit less greenhouse gases or non-fossil fuels. As a promising means to contribute to long-term energy supply, nuclear power generation is expected with improving safety, economic efficiency, environmental adaptability, and nuclear proliferation resistance of the technologies. (T.Tanaka)

  10. Quantifying uncertainties influencing the long-term impacts of oil prices on energy markets and carbon emissions

    McCollum, David L.; Jewell, Jessica; Krey, Volker; Bazilian, Morgan; Fay, Marianne; Riahi, Keywan

    2016-07-01

    Oil prices have fluctuated remarkably in recent years. Previous studies have analysed the impacts of future oil prices on the energy system and greenhouse gas emissions, but none have quantitatively assessed how the broader, energy-system-wide impacts of diverging oil price futures depend on a suite of critical uncertainties. Here we use the MESSAGE integrated assessment model to study several factors potentially influencing this interaction, thereby shedding light on which future unknowns hold the most importance. We find that sustained low or high oil prices could have a major impact on the global energy system over the next several decades; and depending on how the fuel substitution dynamics play out, the carbon dioxide consequences could be significant (for example, between 5 and 20% of the budget for staying below the internationally agreed 2 ∘C target). Whether or not oil and gas prices decouple going forward is found to be the biggest uncertainty.

  11. Compatibility of different measurement techniques. Long-term global solar radiation observations at Izaña Observatory [Discussion paper

    García Cabrera, Rosa Delia; Cuevas Agulló, Emilio; García Rodríguez, Omaira Elena; Ramos López, Ramón; Romero Campos, Pedro Miguel; Ory Ajamil, Fernando de; Cachorro, Victoria E.; Frutos, Ángel M. de

    2016-01-01

    A 1-year intercomparison of classical and modern radiation and sunshine duration instruments has been performed at Izaña Atmospheric Observatory. We compare global solar radiation (GSR) records measured with a Kipp & Zonen CM-21 pyranometer, taken in the framework of the Baseline Surface Radiation Network, with those measured with a multifilter rotating shadowband radiometer and a bimetallic pyranometer, and with GSR estimated from sunshine duration performed with a CS sunshine recorder.

  12. Bottom-Up modeling, a tool for decision support for long-term policy on energy and environment - The TIMES model applied to the energy intensive industries

    Djemaa, A.

    2009-01-01

    Among the energy users in France and Europe, some industrial sectors are very important and should have a key role when assessing the final energy demand patterns in the future. The aim of our work is to apply a prospective model for the long range analysis of energy/technology choices in the industrial sector, focussing on the energy-intensive sectors. The modelling tool applied in this study is the TIMES model (family of best known MARKAL model). It is an economic linear programming model generator for local, national or multi regional energy systems, which provides a technology-rich basis for estimating energy dynamics over a long term, multi period time. We illustrate our work with nine energy-intensive industrial sectors: paper, steel, glass, cement, lime, tiles, brick, ceramics and plaster. It includes a detailed description of the processes involved in the production of industrial products, providing typical energy uses in each process step. In our analysis, we identified for each industry, several commercially available state-of-the-art technologies, characterized and chosen by the Model on the basis of cost effectiveness. Furthermore, we calculated potential energy savings, carbon dioxide emissions' reduction and we estimated the energy impact of a technological rupture. This work indicates that there still exists a significant potential for energy savings and carbon dioxide emissions' reduction in all industries. (author)

  13. Global energy modeling - A biophysical approach

    Dale, Michael

    2010-09-15

    This paper contrasts the standard economic approach to energy modelling with energy models using a biophysical approach. Neither of these approaches includes changing energy-returns-on-investment (EROI) due to declining resource quality or the capital intensive nature of renewable energy sources. Both of these factors will become increasingly important in the future. An extension to the biophysical approach is outlined which encompasses a dynamic EROI function that explicitly incorporates technological learning. The model is used to explore several scenarios of long-term future energy supply especially concerning the global transition to renewable energy sources in the quest for a sustainable energy system.

  14. Assessment of a novel alder biorefinery concept to meet demands of economic feasibility, energy production and long term environmental sustainability

    Thomsen, Tobias; Ahrenfeldt, Jesper; Thomsen, Sune Tjalfe

    2013-01-01

    A biorefinery concept based on alder tree plantations on degenerated soil is developed to comply with indicators of economic feasibility, fossil fuel depletion concerns, and long term sustainability issues. The potential performance of feedstock and biorefinery has been assessed through a literat......A biorefinery concept based on alder tree plantations on degenerated soil is developed to comply with indicators of economic feasibility, fossil fuel depletion concerns, and long term sustainability issues. The potential performance of feedstock and biorefinery has been assessed through...... degenerated soils. Integrating a biomass handling system, an LTCFB gasifier, a diarylheptanoids production chain, an anaerobic digestion facility, a slow pyrolysis unit, gas upgrading and various system integration units, the biorefinery could obtain the following production characteristics accounted...

  15. Genesis, goals and achievements of Long-Term Ecological Research at the global scale: A critical review of ILTER and future directions.

    Mirtl, M; T Borer, E; Djukic, I; Forsius, M; Haubold, H; Hugo, W; Jourdan, J; Lindenmayer, D; McDowell, W H; Muraoka, H; Orenstein, D E; Pauw, J C; Peterseil, J; Shibata, H; Wohner, C; Yu, X; Haase, P

    2018-06-01

    Since its founding in 1993 the International Long-term Ecological Research Network (ILTER) has gone through pronounced development phases. The current network comprises 44 active member LTER networks representing 700 LTER Sites and ~80 LTSER Platforms across all continents, active in the fields of ecosystem, critical zone and socio-ecological research. The critical challenges and most important achievements of the initial phase have now become state-of-the-art in networking for excellent science. At the same time increasing integration, accelerating technology, networking of resources and a strong pull for more socially relevant scientific information have been modifying the mission and goals of ILTER. This article provides a critical review of ILTER's mission, goals, development and impacts. Major characteristics, tools, services, partnerships and selected examples of relative strengths relevant for advancing ILTER are presented. We elaborate on the tradeoffs between the needs of the scientific community and stakeholder expectations. The embedding of ILTER in an increasingly collaborative landscape of global environmental observation and ecological research networks and infrastructures is also reflected by developments of pioneering regional and national LTER networks such as SAEON in South Africa, CERN/CEOBEX in China, TERN in Australia or eLTER RI in Europe. The primary role of ILTER is currently seen as a mechanism to investigate ecosystem structure, function, and services in response to a wide range of environmental forcings using long-term, place-based research. We suggest four main fields of activities and advancements for the next decade through development/delivery of a: (1) Global multi-disciplinary community of researchers and research institutes; (2) Strategic global framework and strong partnerships in ecosystem observation and research; (3) Global Research Infrastructure (GRI); and (4) a scientific knowledge factory for societally relevant information

  16. Simple analysis of very long term proceses without operational and emergency energy supply in the PWR power plant

    Benedek, S.

    1983-01-01

    Published calculational methods are cited and used for examination of PWR transients after a loss-of-coolant accident. For different sizes of breaks and breakdown of the pumps the long term transients - without operational and emergency power supply - were calculated. The results show the critical time interval until the operational or emergency/safety water pump/supply should be made into operation to avoid the core heat-up, melt down and the large radioactive issue. (orig.)

  17. Long-term stability analysis and effect evaluation of energy supply and demand in asia and pacific regions

    Choi, B.R. [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea, Republic of)

    1998-06-01

    The competition in the supply of energy in Northeast Asian countries including Korea is forecasted to be intensively unfolded because of the soaring energy consumption the region. It is because the consumption of coal in Asia will be curtailed due to heightened global attention to environment, the import of Middle Eastern crude oil will be largely increasing since crude oil production in China and Indonesia is experiencing a slow-down. Therefore, close international cooperation is requested for the smooth supply of crude oil and natural gas to back up the economic growth. This study checked the energy supply and demand status in the Asian region that is changing since the 1990s, and analyzed the pressure factors in the energy supply sector. It needs to develop the Far Eastern region of Russia intensively as the energy supply base together with the Middle Eastern oil- producing regions as the plan to alleviate the energy competition within the region and seek economic development concurrently. Since this region requires large- scale investment as an never-expedited area, multilateral cooperation including neighboring countries that need energy and international enterprises who are interested in the profitability of the business are urgently required. Therefore, it is necessary to form and operate Northeast Asia Energy Forum (NAEF) which is a centripetal point that will actually carry out the resources development of Northeast Asia. Korea who is at the centripetal point of Northeast Asian tension should actively participate and support in the formation of this organization within the region in order to utilize it as the cornerstone of national north and south unification. 41 refs., 7 figs., 53 tabs.

  18. The coupling of coal and nuclear energy for the long-term supply of energy and raw materials

    Knizia, K.

    1986-10-01

    In view of the limited world reserves of fossil fuels and the increase in demand to be expected because of the continued growth of the world population, coal and nuclear energy will have to make an increasing contribution to the energy supply. Their contribution will range from electricity generation to the heat sector and to the raw materials market via various gases obtained from them. The further development towards this field of tasks will lead first via the gasification of coal. It will be carried out autothermally in the first stage of development. The gas produced is suitable for realising considerable improvements in efficiency as compared to coal-fired power stations of present-day design since it will permit the generation of electricity via combined gas turbine/steam turbine processes. Efforts are being made to take further the processes based on this technology by introducing a sodium circuit in addition to the coal gasification, which will make it possible to keep the plants required for coal gasification small. In later stages, this technology will also be suitable for producing a considerable improvement in the diversion of heat at high temperatures from high-temperature reactor nuclear power stations for several purposes. (author)

  19. Using Long-Term Satellite Observations to Identify Sensitive Regimes and Active Regions of Aerosol Indirect Effects for Liquid Clouds Over Global Oceans

    Zhao, Xuepeng; Liu, Yangang; Yu, Fangquan; Heidinger, Andrew K.

    2018-01-01

    Long-term (1981-2011) satellite climate data records of clouds and aerosols are used to investigate the aerosol-cloud interaction of marine water cloud from a climatology perspective. Our focus is on identifying the regimes and regions where the aerosol indirect effects (AIEs) are evident in long-term averages over the global oceans through analyzing the correlation features between aerosol loading and the key cloud variables including cloud droplet effective radius (CDER), cloud optical depth (COD), cloud water path (CWP), cloud top height (CTH), and cloud top temperature (CTT). An aerosol optical thickness (AOT) range of 0.13 change of long-term averaged CDER appears only in limited oceanic regions. The signature of aerosol invigoration of water clouds as revealed by the increase of cloud cover fraction (CCF) and CTH with increasing AOT at the middle/high latitudes of both hemispheres is identified for a pristine atmosphere (AOT polluted marine atmosphere (AOT > 0.3) in the tropical convergence zones. The regions where the second AIE is likely to manifest in the CCF change are limited to several oceanic areas with high CCF of the warm water clouds near the western coasts of continents. The second AIE signature as represented by the reduction of the precipitation efficiency with increasing AOT is more likely to be observed in the AOT regime of 0.08 < AOT < 0.4. The corresponding AIE active regions manifested themselves as the decline of the precipitation efficiency are mainly limited to the oceanic areas downwind of continental aerosols. The sensitive regime of the conventional AIE identified in this observational study is likely associated with the transitional regime from the aerosol-limited regime to the updraft-limited regime identified for aerosol-cloud interaction in cloud model simulations.

  20. Birth weight and long-term overweight risk: systematic review and a meta-analysis including 643,902 persons from 66 studies and 26 countries globally.

    Karen Schellong

    Full Text Available Overweight is among the major challenging health risk factors. It has been claimed that birth weight, being a critical indicator of prenatal developmental conditions, is related to long-term overweight risk. In order to check this important assumption of developmental and preventive medicine, we performed a systematic review and comprehensive meta-analysis.Relevant studies published up to January 2011 that investigated the relation between birth weight and later risk of overweight were identified through literature searches using MEDLINE and EMBASE. For meta-analysis, 66 studies from 26 countries and five continents were identified to be eligible, including 643,902 persons aged 1 to 75 years. We constructed random-effects and fixed-effects models, performed subgroup-analyses, influence-analyses, assessed heterogeneity and publication bias, performed meta-regression analysis as well as analysis of confounder adjusted data. Meta-regression revealed a linear positive relationship between birth weight and later overweight risk (p4,000 g was associated with increased risk of overweight (OR=1.66; 95% CI 1.55-1.77. Results did not change significantly by using normal birth weight (2,500-4,000 g as reference category (OR=0.73, 95% CI 0.63-0.84, and OR=1.60, 95% CI 1.45-1.77, respectively. Subgroup- and influence-analyses revealed no indication for bias/confounding. Adjusted estimates indicate a doubling of long-term overweight risk in high as compared to normal birth weight subjects (OR=1.96, 95% CI 1.43-2.67.Findings demonstrate that low birth weight is followed by a decreased long-term risk of overweight, while high birth weight predisposes for later overweight. Preventing in-utero overnutrition, e.g., by avoiding maternal overnutrition, overweight and/or diabetes during pregnancy, might therefore be a promising strategy of genuine overweight prevention, globally.

  1. Estimates of the long-term U.S. economic impacts of global climate change-induced drought.

    Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Loose, Verne W.; Warren, Drake E.; Vargas, Vanessa N.

    2010-01-01

    While climate-change models have done a reasonable job of forecasting changes in global climate conditions over the past decades, recent data indicate that actual climate change may be much more severe. To better understand some of the potential economic impacts of these severe climate changes, Sandia economists estimated the impacts to the U.S. economy of climate change-induced impacts to U.S. precipitation over the 2010 to 2050 time period. The economists developed an impact methodology that converts changes in precipitation and water availability to changes in economic activity, and conducted simulations of economic impacts using a large-scale macroeconomic model of the U.S. economy.

  2. Possible influence of long-term sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific on global zone

    Komhyr, W D; Oltmans, S J; Grass, R D [Atmospheric Administration Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Lab., Boulder, CO (USA); Leonard, R K [Colorado Univ., Boulder, CO (USA)

    1991-01-01

    A significant negative correlation exists between summer sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the east equatorial Pacific and late-October south pole total ozone values. SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific were anomalously warmer during 1976-1987 compared with 1962-1975. QBO (quasi-biennial oscillation) easterly winds in the equatorial Pacific stratosphere were generally stronger after 1975. Before the early-to-mid 1970s the trend in global ozone was generally upward, but then turned downward. Total ozone at Hawaii and Samoa, which had been decreasing during 1976-1987, showed recovery to mid-1970s values in 1988-1989 following a drop in SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific to low values last observed there prior to 1976. During late October 1988, total south pole ozone, which had decreased from ca 280 Dobson units (DU) before 1980 to 140 DU in 1987, suddenly recovered to 250 DU, though substantial ozone depletion by heterogeneous photochemical processes involving polar stratospheric clouds was still evident in the south pole ozone vertical profiles. These observations suggest that the downward trend in ozone observed over the globe in recent years may have been at least partly meteorologically induced, possibly via modulation by the warmer tropical Pacific ocean waters of QBO easterly winds at the equator, of Hadley Cell circulation, or other factors. A cursory analysis of geostrophic wind flow around the Baffin Island low suggests a meteorological influence on the observed downward trend in ozone over North America during the past decade. Because ozone has a lifetime that varies from years to minutes, changes in atmospheric dynamics have a potential to not only redistribute ozone over the globe but also to change global ozone abundance. 47 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab.

  3. Long-term collections

    Collectes à long terme

    2007-01-01

    The Committee of the Long Term Collections (CLT) asks for your attention for the following message from a young Peruvian scientist, following the earthquake which devastated part of her country a month ago.

  4. The Global Prevalence of Infections in Urology Study: A Long-Term, Worldwide Surveillance Study on Urological Infections

    Florian Wagenlehner

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The Global Prevalence of Infections in Urology (GPIU study is a worldwide-performed point prevalence study intended to create surveillance data on antibiotic resistance, type of urogenital infections, risk factors and data on antibiotic consumption, specifically in patients at urological departments with healthcare-associated urogenital infections (HAUTI. Investigators registered data through a web-based application (http://gpiu.esiu.org/. Data collection includes the practice and characteristics of the hospital and urology ward. On a certain day in November, each year, all urological patients present in the urological department at 8:00 a.m. are screened for HAUTI encompassing their full hospital course from admission to discharge. Apart from the GPIU main study, several side studies are taking place, dealing with transurethral resection of the prostate, prostate biopsy, as well as urosepsis. The GPIU study has been annually performed since 2003. Eight-hundred fifty-six urology units from 70 countries have participated so far, including 27,542 patients. A proxy for antibiotic consumption is reflected by the application rates used for antibiotic prophylaxis for urological interventions. Resistance rates of most uropathogens against antibiotics were high, especially with a note of multidrug resistance. The severity of HAUTI is also increasing, 25% being urosepsis in recent years.

  5. Evaluating long term forecasts

    Lady, George M. [Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts, Temple University, Philadelphia, PA 19122 (United States)

    2010-03-15

    The U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA), and its predecessor organizations, has published projections of U.S. energy production, consumption, distribution and prices annually for over 30 years. A natural issue to raise in evaluating the projections is an assessment of their accuracy compared to eventual outcomes. A related issue is the determination of the sources of 'error' in the projections that are due to differences between the actual versus realized values of the associated assumptions. One way to do this would be to run the computer-based model from which the projections are derived at the time the projected values are realized, using actual rather than assumed values for model assumptions; and, compare these results to the original projections. For long term forecasts, this approach would require that the model's software and hardware configuration be archived and available for many years, possibly decades, into the future. Such archival creates many practical problems; and, in general, it is not being done. This paper reports on an alternative approach for evaluating the projections. In the alternative approach, the model is run many times for cases in which important assumptions are changed individually and in combinations. A database is assembled from the solutions and a regression analysis is conducted for each important projected variable with the associated assumptions chosen as exogenous variables. When actual data are eventually available, the regression results are then used to estimate the sources of the differences in the projections of the endogenous variables compared to their eventual outcomes. The results presented here are for residential and commercial sector natural gas and electricity consumption. (author)

  6. Improved method for P and T strategy selection by long-term risk evaluation of nuclear energy systems

    Csom, G.; Feher, S.; Szieberth, M.

    2001-01-01

    The paper presents a detailed introduction of the presently used indicators of long-term risk, namely various concepts of radiotoxicity, analyses their advantages and disadvantages, and proposes further indicators called residual hazard and residual hazard index. In order to illustrate them, the time behavior of the relative radiotoxicity and the residual hazard index is investigated for a few representative cases. In the first one, conventional thermal and fast reactors, while in the second one molten salt reactors are investigated from the viewpoint of transmutation. The results shown indicate the usefulness of the application of the now proposed quantities. (author)

  7. Validation of Long-Term Global Aerosol Climatology Project Optical Thickness Retrievals Using AERONET and MODIS Data

    Geogdzhayev, Igor V.; Mishchenko, Michael I.

    2015-01-01

    A comprehensive set of monthly mean aerosol optical thickness (AOT) data from coastal and island AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) stations is used to evaluate Global Aerosol Climatology Project (GACP) retrievals for the period 1995-2009 during which contemporaneous GACP and AERONET data were available. To put the GACP performance in broader perspective, we also compare AERONET and MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Aqua level-2 data for 2003-2009 using the same methodology. We find that a large mismatch in geographic coverage exists between the satellite and ground-based datasets, with very limited AERONET coverage of open-ocean areas. This is especially true of GACP because of the smaller number of AERONET stations at the early stages of the network development. Monthly mean AOTs from the two over-the-ocean satellite datasets are well-correlated with the ground-based values, the correlation coefficients being 0.81-0.85 for GACP and 0.74-0.79 for MODIS. Regression analyses demonstrate that the GACP mean AOTs are approximately 17%-27% lower than the AERONET values on average, while the MODIS mean AOTs are 5%-25% higher. The regression coefficients are highly dependent on the weighting assumptions (e.g., on the measure of aerosol variability) as well as on the set of AERONET stations used for comparison. Comparison of over-the-land and over-the-ocean MODIS monthly mean AOTs in the vicinity of coastal AERONET stations reveals a significant bias. This may indicate that aerosol amounts in coastal locations can differ significantly from those in adjacent open-ocean areas. Furthermore, the color of coastal waters and peculiarities of coastline meteorological conditions may introduce biases in the GACP AOT retrievals. We conclude that the GACP and MODIS over-the-ocean retrieval algorithms show similar ranges of discrepancy when compared to available coastal and island AERONET stations. The factors mentioned above may limit the performance of the

  8. Diurnal, seasonal and long-term variations of global formaldehyde columns inferred from combined OMI and GOME-2 observations

    De Smedt, I.; Stavrakou, T.; Hendrick, F.; Danckaert, T.; Vlemmix, T.; Pinardi, G.; Theys, N.; Lerot, C.; Gielen, C.; Vigouroux, C.; Hermans, C.; Fayt, C.; Veefkind, P.; Müller, J.-F.; Van Roozendael, M.

    2015-11-01

    We present the new version (v14) of the BIRA-IASB algorithm for the retrieval of formaldehyde (H2CO) columns from spaceborne UV-visible sensors. Applied to OMI measurements from Aura and to GOME-2 measurements from MetOp-A and MetOp-B, this algorithm is used to produce global distributions of H2CO representative of mid-morning and early afternoon conditions. Its main features include (1) a new iterative DOAS scheme involving three fitting intervals to better account for the O2-O2 absorption, (2) the use of earthshine radiances averaged in the equatorial Pacific as reference spectra, and (3) a destriping correction and background normalisation resolved in the across-swath position. For the air mass factor calculation, a priori vertical profiles calculated by the IMAGES chemistry transport model at 09:30 and 13:30 LT are used. Although the resulting GOME-2 and OMI H2CO vertical columns are found to be highly correlated, some systematic differences are observed. Afternoon columns are generally larger than morning ones, especially in mid-latitude regions. In contrast, over tropical rainforests, morning H2CO columns significantly exceed those observed in the afternoon. These differences are discussed in terms of the H2CO column variation between mid-morning and early afternoon, using ground-based MAX-DOAS measurements available from seven stations in Europe, China and Africa. Validation results confirm the capacity of the combined satellite measurements to resolve diurnal variations in H2CO columns. Furthermore, vertical profiles derived from MAX-DOAS measurements in the Beijing area and in Bujumbura are used for a more detailed validation exercise. In both regions, we find an agreement better than 15 % when MAX-DOAS profiles are used as a priori for the satellite retrievals. Finally, regional trends in H2CO columns are estimated for the 2004-2014 period using SCIAMACHY and GOME-2 data for morning conditions, and OMI for early afternoon conditions. Consistent features

  9. Technology learning for renewable energy: Implications for South Africa's long-term mitigation scenarios

    Winkler, Harald, E-mail: Harald.Winkler@uct.ac.z [Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town, Private Bag, Rondebosch 7701 (South Africa); Hughes, Alison [Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town, Private Bag, Rondebosch 7701 (South Africa); Haw, Mary [PJ Carew Consulting, 103 Hout Street, Cape Town 8001 (South Africa)

    2009-11-15

    Technology learning can make a significant difference to renewable energy as a mitigation option in South Africa's electricity sector. This article considers scenarios implemented in a Markal energy model used for mitigation analysis. It outlines the empirical evidence that unit costs of renewable energy technologies decline, considers the theoretical background and how this can be implemented in modeling. Two scenarios are modelled, assuming 27% and 50% of renewable electricity by 2050, respectively. The results show a dramatic shift in the mitigation costs. In the less ambitious scenario, instead of imposing a cost of Rand 52/t CO{sub 2}-eq (at 10% discount rate), reduced costs due to technology learning turn renewables into negative cost option. Our results show that technology learning flips the costs, saving R143. At higher penetration rate, the incremental costs added beyond the base case decline from R92 per ton to R3. Including assumptions about technology learning turns renewable from a higher-cost mitigation option to one close to zero. We conclude that a future world in which global investment in renewables drives down unit costs makes it a much more cost-effective and sustainable mitigation option in South Africa.

  10. Technology learning for renewable energy. Implications for South Africa's long-term mitigation scenarios

    Winkler, Harald; Hughes, Alison [Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town, Private Bag, Rondebosch 7701 (South Africa); Haw, Mary [PJ Carew Consulting, 103 Hout Street, Cape Town 8001 (South Africa)

    2009-11-15

    Technology learning can make a significant difference to renewable energy as a mitigation option in South Africa's electricity sector. This article considers scenarios implemented in a Markal energy model used for mitigation analysis. It outlines the empirical evidence that unit costs of renewable energy technologies decline, considers the theoretical background and how this can be implemented in modeling. Two scenarios are modelled, assuming 27% and 50% of renewable electricity by 2050, respectively. The results show a dramatic shift in the mitigation costs. In the less ambitious scenario, instead of imposing a cost of Rand 52/t CO{sub 2}-eq (at 10% discount rate), reduced costs due to technology learning turn renewables into negative cost option. Our results show that technology learning flips the costs, saving R143. At higher penetration rate, the incremental costs added beyond the base case decline from R92 per ton to R3. Including assumptions about technology learning turns renewable from a higher-cost mitigation option to one close to zero. We conclude that a future world in which global investment in renewables drives down unit costs makes it a much more cost-effective and sustainable mitigation option in South Africa. (author)

  11. Short term decisions for long term problems - The effect of foresight on model based energy systems analysis

    Keppo, Ilkka; Strubegger, Manfred

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents the development and demonstration of a limited foresight energy system model. The presented model is implemented as an extension to a large, linear optimization model, MESSAGE. The motivation behind changing the model is to provide an alternative decision framework, where information for the full time frame is not available immediately and sequential decision making under incomplete information is implied. While the traditional optimization framework provides the globally optimal decisions for the modeled problem, the framework presented here may offer a better description of the decision environment, under which decision makers must operate. We further modify the model to accommodate flexible dynamic constraints, which give an option to implement investments faster, albeit with a higher cost. Finally, the operation of the model is demonstrated using a moving window of foresight, with which decisions are taken for the next 30 years, but can be reconsidered later, when more information becomes available. We find that the results demonstrate some of the pitfalls of short term planning, e.g. lagging investments during earlier periods lead to higher requirements later during the century. Furthermore, the energy system remains more reliant on fossil based energy carriers, leading to higher greenhouse gas emissions.

  12. Intensity-Modulated Radiotherapy is Associated With Improved Global Quality of Life Among Long-term Survivors of Head-and-Neck Cancer

    Chen, Allen M.; Farwell, D. Gregory; Luu, Quang; Vazquez, Esther G.; Lau, Derick H.; Purdy, James A.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: To compare the long-term quality of life among patients treated with and without intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) for head-and-neck cancer. Methods and Materials: University of Washington Quality of Life instrument scores were reviewed for 155 patients previously treated with radiation therapy for locally advanced head-and-neck cancer. All patients were disease free and had at least 2 years of follow-up. Eighty-four patients (54%) were treated with IMRT. The remaining 71 patients (46%) were treated with three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3D CRT) by use of initial opposed lateral fields matched to a low anterior neck field. Results: The mean global quality of life scores were 67.5 and 80.1 for the IMRT patients at 1 and 2 years, respectively, compared with 55.4 and 57.0 for the 3D CRT patients, respectively (p < 0.001). At 1 year after the completion of radiation therapy, the proportion of patients who rated their global quality of life as “very good” or “outstanding” was 51% and 41% among patients treated by IMRT and 3DCRT, respectively (p = 0.11). At 2 years, the corresponding percentages increased to 73% and 49%, respectively (p < 0.001). On multivariate analysis accounting for sex, age, radiation intent (definitive vs. postoperative), radiation dose, T stage, primary site, use of concurrent chemotherapy, and neck dissection, the use of IMRT was the only variable independently associated with improved quality of life (p = 0.01). Conclusion: The early quality of life improvements associated with IMRT not only are maintained but apparently become more magnified over time. These data provide powerful evidence attesting to the long-term benefits of IMRT for head-and-neck cancer.

  13. Undertaking high impact strategies: The role of national efficiency measures in long-term energy and emission reduction in steel making

    Xu, Tengfang; Karali, Nihan; Sathaye, Jayant

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Evaluate long-term effects of national energy efficiency in steel making. • Use bottom-up optimization for projection in China, India and the U.S. • The effects include changes in steel production, energy use, emissions, and costs. • Three emission targets induce different structural changes and investments. • Projected energy and CO 2 intensity declines in each country from 2010 to 2050. - Abstract: In this paper, we applied bottom-up linear optimization modeling to analyze long-term national impacts of implementing energy efficiency measures on energy savings, CO 2 -emission reduction, production, and costs of steel making in China, India, and the U.S. We first established two base scenarios representing business-as-usual steel production for each country from 2010 to 2050; Base scenario (in which no efficiency measure is available) and Base-E scenario (in which efficiency measures are available), and model scenarios representing various emission-reduction targets that affects production, annual energy use and costs with the goal of cost minimization. A higher emission-reduction target generally induces larger structural changes and increased investments in nation-wide efficiency measures, in addition to autonomous improvement expected in the Base scenario. Given the same emission-reduction target compared to the base scenario, intensity of annual energy use and emissions exhibits declining trends in each country from year 2010 to 2050. While a higher emission-reduction target result in more energy reduction from the base scenario, such reduction can become more expensive to achieve. The results advance our understanding of long-term effects of national energy efficiency applications under different sets of emission-reduction targets for steel sectors in the three major economies, and provide useful implications for high impact strategies to manage production structures, production costs, energy use, and emission reduction in steel making

  14. Long-Term Nuclear Knowledge Management (NKM) on Nuclear Production of Hydrogen - A Case Study of the Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (JAERI)

    Yanagisawa, Kazuaki

    2007-01-01

    In Japan, so-called a formal nuclear policy; The Framework for Nuclear Energy Policy is built up by Japan Atomic Energy Commission at every 5-year, in which not only a conventional light water reactor (LWR) but also a fast breeder reactor (FBR), HTGR and a fusion reactor (FR) is referred as a prominent candidate of long-term (<100 years) nuclear energy source. The policy makers might have multi-purpose scenarios for a future of innovated nuclear energy systems through results of various discussions at their level. According to long-term nuclear knowledge management, the author made ex ante evaluation of HTGR known as the intellectual assets of JAERI 1, from the viewpoint of hypothetical benefits under conditions of substantial uncertainty. Nuclear knowledge management (NKM) is an integrated, systematic approach to identifying, managing and sharing an organization's nuclear knowledge, and enabling persons to create new nuclear knowledge collectively and thereby helping achieve the objectives. NKM identifies, optimizes, and actively manages intellectual assets either in the form of explicit knowledge held in intangible products or tacit knowledge possessed by individuals or communities in the nuclear fields. In the present study the authors wish not only to show the validity of long-term NKM as a key factor of HTGR but also to assess their hypothetical benefits through the year 2050 under conditions of substantial uncertainty. It should be stressed that those factors are important intellectual assets of JAERI developed to date. Additionally, in the Framework for Nuclear Energy Policy constructed up by the Japan Atomic Energy Commission, a LWR, a fast breeder reactor (FBR), a HTGR, and a fusion reactor (FR) are all defined as eligible and prominent candidates for long-term nuclear energy sources. In this sense, we estimate here a direct market creation of (1) hydrogen energy production and (2) electricity generation, by commercialized HTGR through the year 2050 with

  15. Birth Weight and Long-Term Overweight Risk: Systematic Review and a Meta-Analysis Including 643,902 Persons from 66 Studies and 26 Countries Globally

    Harder, Thomas; Plagemann, Andreas

    2012-01-01

    Background Overweight is among the major challenging health risk factors. It has been claimed that birth weight, being a critical indicator of prenatal developmental conditions, is related to long-term overweight risk. In order to check this important assumption of developmental and preventive medicine, we performed a systematic review and comprehensive meta-analysis. Methods and Findings Relevant studies published up to January 2011 that investigated the relation between birth weight and later risk of overweight were identified through literature searches using MEDLINE and EMBASE. For meta-analysis, 66 studies from 26 countries and five continents were identified to be eligible, including 643,902 persons aged 1 to 75 years. We constructed random-effects and fixed-effects models, performed subgroup-analyses, influence-analyses, assessed heterogeneity and publication bias, performed meta-regression analysis as well as analysis of confounder adjusted data. Meta-regression revealed a linear positive relationship between birth weight and later overweight risk (poverweight (odds ratio (OR) = 0.67; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.59–0.76). High birth weight (>4,000 g) was associated with increased risk of overweight (OR = 1.66; 95% CI 1.55–1.77). Results did not change significantly by using normal birth weight (2,500–4,000 g) as reference category (OR = 0.73, 95% CI 0.63–0.84, and OR = 1.60, 95% CI 1.45–1.77, respectively). Subgroup- and influence-analyses revealed no indication for bias/confounding. Adjusted estimates indicate a doubling of long-term overweight risk in high as compared to normal birth weight subjects (OR = 1.96, 95% CI 1.43–2.67). Conclusions Findings demonstrate that low birth weight is followed by a decreased long-term risk of overweight, while high birth weight predisposes for later overweight. Preventing in-utero overnutrition, e.g., by avoiding maternal overnutrition, overweight and/or diabetes during pregnancy

  16. The effect of long-term dexfenfluramine treatment on 24-hour energy expenditure in man. A double-blind placebo controlled study

    Breum, L; Astrup, A; Andersen, T

    1990-01-01

    In order to investigate the effect of long-term treatment with dexfenfluramine (dF) on 24-hour energy expenditure (EE), 10 obese females were studied in a double-blind design. Shortly before and 4 weeks after cessation of a 13 months treatment period with either dF (30 mg/day) or placebo (PL...... differences. The conclusion is therefore that dF possesses no significant thermogenic effect during long-term administration in human obese subjects.......) the 24-hour EE was measured. The measurements were performed using a 24 m3 direct heat sink calorimeter with continuous real time measurements of evaporative and sensible heat losses. The patients performed a standardized program of exercise, rest and meals. The measurements were performed at 24 degrees...

  17. HadISD: a quality-controlled global synoptic report database for selected variables at long-term stations from 1973–2011

    D. E. Parker

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the creation of HadISD: an automatically quality-controlled synoptic resolution dataset of temperature, dewpoint temperature, sea-level pressure, wind speed, wind direction and cloud cover from global weather stations for 1973–2011. The full dataset consists of over 6000 stations, with 3427 long-term stations deemed to have sufficient sampling and quality for climate applications requiring sub-daily resolution. As with other surface datasets, coverage is heavily skewed towards Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. The dataset is constructed from a large pre-existing ASCII flatfile data bank that represents over a decade of substantial effort at data retrieval, reformatting and provision. These raw data have had varying levels of quality control applied to them by individual data providers. The work proceeded in several steps: merging stations with multiple reporting identifiers; reformatting to netCDF; quality control; and then filtering to form a final dataset. Particular attention has been paid to maintaining true extreme values where possible within an automated, objective process. Detailed validation has been performed on a subset of global stations and also on UK data using known extreme events to help finalise the QC tests. Further validation was performed on a selection of extreme events world-wide (Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the cold snap in Alaska in 1989 and heat waves in SE Australia in 2009. Some very initial analyses are performed to illustrate some of the types of problems to which the final data could be applied. Although the filtering has removed the poorest station records, no attempt has been made to homogenise the data thus far, due to the complexity of retaining the true distribution of high-resolution data when applying adjustments. Hence non-climatic, time-varying errors may still exist in many of the individual station records and care is needed in inferring long-term trends from these data. This

  18. Long-Term Collections

    Comité des collectes à long terme

    2011-01-01

    It is the time of the year when our fireman colleagues go around the laboratory for their traditional calendars sale. A part of the money of the sales will be donated in favour of the long-term collections. We hope that you will welcome them warmly.

  19. Proceedings of the 13th forum: Croatian Energy Day: Long-term planning and consumer supply safety in open market conditions

    Granic, G.; Jelavic, B.

    2004-01-01

    The process of opening up the energy market has been proceeding at an accelerating pace; legislative and institutional prerequisites have come into existence for a transparent and nondiscriminatory approach to energy systems (networks), and for an easy market access to suppliers by granting customers the right of supplier choice. National borders - once an obstacle to energy market development - are thus eliminated. Advantages of this sort of development strategy for energy markets include top-quality competition and market de-monopolization, which in turn, as a rule, imply a more favorable position for the users of energy system services, for energy buyers / purchasers, and for consumers. However, the coexistence of internal (national) and international competitions raises the issue of the framework and contents of long-term planning, as well as of the liability of states and government institutions for the adequacy, security, and stability of energy sources, and consequently for customer supply security

  20. Replacing tedium with transformation: Why the US Department of Energy needs to change the way it conducts long-term R and D

    Sovacool, Benjamin K.

    2008-01-01

    To avoid promoting technologies that merely produce incremental change, the US Department of Energy needs to establish a new organization designed to focus on transformational R and D projects. From its inception in 1977, the US Department of Energy (DOE) has been responsible for maintaining the nation's nuclear stockpile, leading the country in terms of basic research, setting national energy goals, and managing thousands of individual programs. Despite these responsibilities, however, the DOE research and development (R and D) model does not appear to offer the nation an optimal strategy for assessing long-term energy challenges. American energy policy continues to face constraints related to an overly rigid management structure and loss of mission within the DOE, layers of stove-piping within and between the national laboratories, and inadequate public and private funding for energy R and D. To address these concerns, an independent organization dedicated to transformative, creative energy R and D is required

  1. Long-Term Improvement of Neurological Signs and Metabolic Dysfunction in a Mouse Model of Krabbe's Disease after Global Gene Therapy.

    Marshall, Michael S; Issa, Yazan; Jakubauskas, Benas; Stoskute, Monika; Elackattu, Vince; Marshall, Jeffrey N; Bogue, Wil; Nguyen, Duc; Hauck, Zane; Rue, Emily; Karumuthil-Melethil, Subha; Zaric, Violeta; Bosland, Maarten; van Breemen, Richard B; Givogri, Maria I; Gray, Steven J; Crocker, Stephen J; Bongarzone, Ernesto R

    2018-03-07

    We report a global adeno-associated virus (AAV)9-based gene therapy protocol to deliver therapeutic galactosylceramidase (GALC), a lysosomal enzyme that is deficient in Krabbe's disease. When globally administered via intrathecal, intracranial, and intravenous injections to newborn mice affected with GALC deficiency (twitcher mice), this approach largely surpassed prior published benchmarks of survival and metabolic correction, showing long-term protection of demyelination, neuroinflammation, and motor function. Bone marrow transplantation, performed in this protocol without immunosuppressive preconditioning, added minimal benefits to the AAV9 gene therapy. Contrasting with other proposed pre-clinical therapies, these results demonstrate that achieving nearly complete correction of GALC's metabolic deficiencies across the entire nervous system via gene therapy can have a significant improvement to behavioral deficits, pathophysiological changes, and survival. These results are an important consideration for determining the safest and most effective manner for adapting gene therapy to treat this leukodystrophy in the clinic. Copyright © 2018 The American Society of Gene and Cell Therapy. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Distinguishing globally-driven changes from regional- and local-scale impacts: The case for long-term and broad-scale studies of recovery from pollution.

    Hawkins, S J; Evans, A J; Mieszkowska, N; Adams, L C; Bray, S; Burrows, M T; Firth, L B; Genner, M J; Leung, K M Y; Moore, P J; Pack, K; Schuster, H; Sims, D W; Whittington, M; Southward, E C

    2017-11-30

    Marine ecosystems are subject to anthropogenic change at global, regional and local scales. Global drivers interact with regional- and local-scale impacts of both a chronic and acute nature. Natural fluctuations and those driven by climate change need to be understood to diagnose local- and regional-scale impacts, and to inform assessments of recovery. Three case studies are used to illustrate the need for long-term studies: (i) separation of the influence of fishing pressure from climate change on bottom fish in the English Channel; (ii) recovery of rocky shore assemblages from the Torrey Canyon oil spill in the southwest of England; (iii) interaction of climate change and chronic Tributyltin pollution affecting recovery of rocky shore populations following the Torrey Canyon oil spill. We emphasize that "baselines" or "reference states" are better viewed as envelopes that are dependent on the time window of observation. Recommendations are made for adaptive management in a rapidly changing world. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  3. A Global Assessment of Long-Term Greening and Browning Trends in Pasture Lands Using the GIMMS LAI3g Dataset

    Benjamin I. Cook

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Pasture ecosystems may be particularly vulnerable to land degradation due to the high risk of human disturbance (e.g., overgrazing, burning, etc., especially when compared with natural ecosystems (non-pasture, non-cultivated where direct human impacts are minimal. Using maximum annual leaf area index (LAImax as a proxy for standing biomass and peak annual aboveground productivity, we analyze greening and browning trends in pasture areas from 1982–2008. Inter-annual variability in pasture productivity is strongly controlled by precipitation (positive correlation and, to a lesser extent, temperature (negative correlation. Linear temporal trends are significant in 23% of pasture cells, with the vast majority of these areas showing positive LAImax trends. Spatially extensive productivity declines are only found in a few regions, most notably central Asia, southwest North America, and southeast Australia. Statistically removing the influence of precipitation reduces LAImax trends by only 13%, suggesting that precipitation trends are only a minor contributor to long-term greening and browning of pasture lands. No significant global relationship was found between LAImax and pasture intensity, although the magnitude of trends did vary between cells classified as natural versus pasture. In the tropics and Southern Hemisphere, the median rate of greening in pasture cells is significantly higher than for cells dominated by natural vegetation. In the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics, conversely, greening of natural areas is 2–4 times the magnitude of greening in pasture areas. This analysis presents one of the first global assessments of greening and browning trends in global pasture lands, including a comparison with vegetation trends in regions dominated by natural ecosystems. Our results suggest that degradation of pasture lands is not a globally widespread phenomenon and, consistent with much of the terrestrial biosphere, there have been widespread

  4. Energy-conserving programming of VVI pacemakers: a telemetry-supported, long-term, follow-up study.

    Klein, H H; Knake, W

    1990-06-01

    Thirty patients with VVI pacemakers (Quantum 253-09, 253-19, Intermedics Inc., Freeport, TX) were observed for a mean of 65 months. Within 12 months after implantation, optimized output programming was performed in 29 patients. This included a decrease in pulse amplitude (22 patients), pulse width (4 patients), and/or pacing rate (11 patients). After 65 months postimplantation, telemetered battery voltage and battery impedance were compared with the predicted values expected when the pulse generator constantly stimulates at nominal program conditions (heart rate 72.3 beats/min, pulse amplitude 5.4 V, pulse width 0.61 ms). Instead of an expected cell voltage of 2.6 V and a cell impedance of 10 k omega mean telemetered values amounted to 2.78 V and 1.4 k omega, respectively. These data correspond to a battery age of 12-15 months at nominal program conditions. This long-term follow-up study suggests that adequate programming will extend battery longevity and thus pulse generator survival in many patients.

  5. Protein-energy malnutrition at mid-adulthood does not imprint long-term metabolic consequences in male rats.

    Malta, Ananda; de Moura, Egberto Gaspar; Ribeiro, Tatiane Aparecida; Tófolo, Laize Peron; Abdennebi-Najar, Latifa; Vieau, Didier; Barella, Luiz Felipe; de Freitas Mathias, Paulo Cezar; Lisboa, Patrícia Cristina; de Oliveira, Júlio Cezar

    2016-06-01

    The long-term effects of the development of chronic metabolic diseases such as type 2 diabetes and obesity have been associated with nutritional insults in critical life stages. In this study, we evaluated the effect of a low-protein diet on metabolism in mid-adulthood male rats. At 90 days of age, Wistar male rats were fed a low-protein diet (4.0 %, LP group) for 30 days, whereas control rats were fed a normal-protein diet (20.5 %, NP group) throughout their lifetimes. To allow for dietary rehabilitation, from 120 to 180 days of age, the LP rats were fed a normal-protein diet. Then, we measured body composition, fat stores, glucose-insulin homeostasis and pancreatic islet function. At 120 days of age, just after low-protein diet treatment, the LP rats displayed a strong lean phenotype, hypoinsulinemia, as assessed under fasting and glucose tolerance test conditions, as well as weak pancreatic islet insulinotropic response to glucose and acetylcholine (p protein diet rehabilitation, the LP rats displayed a slight lean phenotype (p  0.05). Taken together, the present data suggest that the effects of dietary restriction as a stressor in adulthood are reversible with dietary rehabilitation, indicating that adulthood is not a sensitive or critical time window for metabolic programming.

  6. Long-term energy and climate implications of carbon capture and storage deployment strategies in the US coal-fired electricity fleet.

    Sathre, Roger; Masanet, Eric

    2012-09-04

    To understand the long-term energy and climate implications of different implementation strategies for carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the US coal-fired electricity fleet, we integrate three analytical elements: scenario projection of energy supply systems, temporally explicit life cycle modeling, and time-dependent calculation of radiative forcing. Assuming continued large-scale use of coal for electricity generation, we find that aggressive implementation of CCS could reduce cumulative greenhouse gas emissions (CO(2), CH(4), and N(2)O) from the US coal-fired power fleet through 2100 by 37-58%. Cumulative radiative forcing through 2100 would be reduced by only 24-46%, due to the front-loaded time profile of the emissions and the long atmospheric residence time of CO(2). The efficiency of energy conversion and carbon capture technologies strongly affects the amount of primary energy used but has little effect on greenhouse gas emissions or radiative forcing. Delaying implementation of CCS deployment significantly increases long-term radiative forcing. This study highlights the time-dynamic nature of potential climate benefits and energy costs of different CCS deployment pathways and identifies opportunities and constraints of successful CCS implementation.

  7. Moderate long-term modulation of neuropeptide Y in hypothalamic arcuate nucleus induces energy balance alterations in adult rats.

    Lígia Sousa-Ferreira

    Full Text Available Neuropeptide Y (NPY produced by arcuate nucleus (ARC neurons has a strong orexigenic effect on target neurons. Hypothalamic NPY levels undergo wide-ranging oscillations during the circadian cycle and in response to fasting and peripheral hormones (from 0.25 to 10-fold change. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the impact of a moderate long-term modulation of NPY within the ARC neurons on food consumption, body weight gain and hypothalamic neuropeptides. We achieved a physiological overexpression (3.6-fold increase and down-regulation (0.5-fold decrease of NPY in the rat ARC by injection of AAV vectors expressing NPY and synthetic microRNA that target the NPY, respectively. Our work shows that a moderate overexpression of NPY was sufficient to induce diurnal over-feeding, sustained body weight gain and severe obesity in adult rats. Additionally, the circulating levels of leptin were elevated but the immunoreactivity (ir of ARC neuropeptides was not in accordance (POMC-ir was unchanged and AGRP-ir increased, suggesting a disruption in the ability of ARC neurons to response to peripheral metabolic alterations. Furthermore, a dysfunction in adipocytes phenotype was observed in these obese rats. In addition, moderate down-regulation of NPY did not affect basal feeding or normal body weight gain but the response to food deprivation was compromised since fasting-induced hyperphagia was inhibited and fasting-induced decrease in locomotor activity was absent.These results highlight the importance of the physiological ARC NPY levels oscillations on feeding regulation, fasting response and body weight preservation, and are important for the design of therapeutic interventions for obesity that include the NPY.

  8. Development of an Integrated Global Energy Model

    Krakowski, R.A.

    1999-01-01

    The primary objective of this research was to develop a forefront analysis tool for application to enhance understanding of long-term, global, nuclear-energy and nuclear-material futures. To this end, an existing economics-energy-environmental (E 3 ) model was adopted, modified, and elaborated to examine this problem in a multi-regional (13), long-term (approximately2,100) context. The E 3 model so developed was applied to create a Los Alamos presence in this E 3 area through ''niche analyses'' that provide input to the formulation of policies dealing with and shaping of nuclear-energy and nuclear-materials futures. Results from analyses using the E 3 model have been presented at a variety of national and international conferences and workshops. Through use of the E 3 model Los Alamos was afforded the opportunity to participate in a multi-national E 3 study team that is examining a range of global, long-term nuclear issues under the auspices of the IAEA during the 1998-99 period . Finally, the E 3 model developed under this LDRD project is being used as an important component in more recent Nuclear Material Management Systems (NMMS) project

  9. One hundred years since the panic law - and we still have a strong need for a long term energy policy

    Hjellestad, Heidi; Schjelderup, Bill

    2006-01-01

    The article discusses the consequences of the Norwegian energy law from 1906, the new energy laws and the development in the power market. Governmental, business and private economical and political interests are in focus. Various power sources are considered. (tk)

  10. Long-term concepts for the energy supply of developing countries, with a detailed discussion of Brazil

    Koenig, C.

    1975-01-01

    The possibilities of meeting the energy requirements by nuclear energy are scrutinized after giving a survey about today's energy situation in Brazil and the beginnings of an eventual development until the year 2000. An analysis of energy-intensive industry branches and of the electro-energy economy shows a primary need of energy until the year 2000 which can substantially be met using nuclear energy. Especially the use of high-temperature reactors appears an optimal solution. The effects of HTR application on the structure of primary energy sources, on the pollution of the environment, and on the balance of foreign exchange payments are examined in detail. The nuclear power plants should be constructed in such a way that a number of additional products (fuel gases, reduction gases, synthesis gas, hydrocarbons) should be produced besides current generation by utilizing process heat. (UA) [de

  11. Assessment of a novel alder biorefinery concept to meet demands of economics feasibility, energy production and long term environmental sustainability

    Thomsen, Tobias; Ahrenfeldt, Jesper; Thomsen, Sune Tjalfe

    2012-01-01

    system Energy Return on energy Invested 4.4, total system Exergy Return on exergy Invested 3.5, Net Energy Output 78 GJ/ha/year, Net Exergy Output 50 GJ/ha/year, Net carbon sequestration 0.8 ton CO2-eq/ha/year, Total product value 2030 euro/ha/year and Net Dry Matter Removal 90%....

  12. The Global Energy Challenge

    Connolly, David

    2011-01-01

    This report gives a brief overview of the global energy challenge and subsequently outlines how and where renewable energy could be developed to solve these issues. The report does not go into a lot of detail on these issues and hence, it is meant as an overview only. The report begins by outlining...... the causes of global climate change, concluding that energy-related emissions are the primary contributors to the problem. As a result, global energy production is analysed in more detail, discussing how it has evolved over the last 30 years and also, how it is expected to evolve in the coming 30 years....... Afterwards, the security of the world’s energy supply is investigated and it becomes clear that there is both an inevitable shortage of fossil fuels and a dangerous separation of supply and demand. The final topic discussed is renewable energy, since it is one sustainable solution to the global energy...

  13. Global observed long-term changes in temperature and precipitation extremes: A review of progress and limitations in IPCC assessments and beyond

    Lisa V. Alexander

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC first attempted a global assessment of long-term changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in its Third Assessment Report in 2001. While data quality and coverage were limited, the report still concluded that heavy precipitation events had increased and that there had been, very likely, a reduction in the frequency of extreme low temperatures and increases in the frequency of extreme high temperatures. That overall assessment had changed little by the time of the IPCC Special Report on Extremes (SREX in 2012 and the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5 in 2013, but firmer statements could be added and more regional detail was possible. Despite some substantial progress throughout the IPCC Assessments in terms of temperature and precipitation extremes analyses, there remain major gaps particularly regarding data quality and availability, our ability to monitor these events consistently and our ability to apply the complex statistical methods required. Therefore this article focuses on the substantial progress that has taken place in the last decade, in addition to reviewing the new progress since IPCC AR5 while also addressing the challenges that still lie ahead.

  14. US Department of Energy Approach to Probabilistic Evaluation of Long-Term Safety for a Potential Yucca Mountain Repository

    Dr. R. Dyer; Dr. R. Andrews; Dr. A. Van Luik

    2005-01-01

    Regulatory requirements being addressed in the US geological repository program for spent nuclear fuel and high-level waste disposal specify probabilistically defined mean-value dose limits. These dose limits reflect acceptable levels of risk. The probabilistic approach mandated by regulation calculates a ''risk of a dose,'' a risk of a potential given dose value at a specific time in the future to a hypothetical person. The mean value of the time-dependent performance measure needs to remain below an acceptable level defined by regulation. Because there are uncertain parameters that are important to system performance, the regulation mandates an analysis focused on the mean value of the performance measure, but that also explores the ''full range of defensible and reasonable parameter distributions''...System performance evaluations should not be unduly influenced by...''extreme physical situations and parameter values''. Challenges in this approach lie in defending the scientific basis for the models selected, and the data and distributions sampled. A significant challenge lies in showing that uncertainties are properly identified and evaluated. A single-value parameter has no uncertainty, and where used such values need to be supported by scientific information showing the selected value is appropriate. Uncertainties are inherent in data, but are also introduced by creating parameter distributions from data sets, selecting models from among alternative models, abstracting models for use in probabilistic analysis, and in selecting the range of initiating event probabilities for unlikely events. The goal of the assessment currently in progress is to evaluate the level of risk inherent in moving ahead to the next phase of repository development: construction. During the construction phase, more will be learned to inform a new long-term risk evaluation to support moving to the next phase: accepting waste. Therefore, though there was sufficient confidence of safety

  15. Scenarios of the long term evolution of the energy sector. Energy needs, choices and possibilities: Shell's scenarios for 2050. The long-term evolution of the energy sector. A vision of the 2020-2050 energy mix. Phase dynamics analysis of energy demand scenarios

    Chevallier, B.; Appert, O; Bauquis, P.R.; Alba, P.

    2002-01-01

    This dossier comprises 4 articles dealing with energy scenarios. The first article presents the prospective studies carried out by the Shell group which lead to the construction of two scenarios entitled: 'dynamics as usual' and 'the spirit of the coming age'. Both scenarios foresee an explosion of the primary energy demand for the coming next 50 years (multiplied by a factor of 2 to 2.8 with respect to 2000) with a decline of hydrocarbons for the benefit of gas and renewable energies (including bio-fuels), while nuclear and coal will still represent a quarter of our needs. However, the main uncertainty remains the demographic expansion during the next 50 years. The second article presents the energy models and projections of the IEA for the long-term evolution of the energy sector (petroleum, gas, coal, renewable energy and uranium resources) and the main uncertainties of these projections (economic growth, environmental policies, technological evolutions). The third article presents the agreements and divergences of the author's forecasts for 2050 with Shell's scenarios, while the last article makes a comparison between the IEA, IIASA-CME and Shell scenarios using a phase dynamics analysis. (J.S.)

  16. Assessment of the NeQuick-2 and IRI-Plas 2017 models using global and long-term GNSS measurements

    Okoh, Daniel; Onwuneme, Sylvester; Seemala, Gopi; Jin, Shuanggen; Rabiu, Babatunde; Nava, Bruno; Uwamahoro, Jean

    2018-05-01

    The global ionospheric models NeQuick and IRI-Plas have been widely used. However, their uncertainties are not clear at global scale and long term. In this paper, a climatologic assessment of the NeQuick and IRI-Plas models is investigated at a global scale from global navigation satellite system (GNSS) observations. GNSS observations from 36 globally distributed locations were used to evaluate performances of both NeQuick-2 and IRI-Plas 2017 models from January 2006 to July 2017, covering more than the 11-year period of a solar cycle. An hourly interval of diurnal profiles computed on monthly basis was used to measure deviations of the model estimations from corresponding GNSS VTEC observations. Results show that both models are fairly accurate in trends with the GNSS measurements. The NeQuick predictions were generally better than the IRI-Plas predictions in most of the stations and the times. The mean annual prediction errors for the IRI-Plas model typically varied from about 3 TECU at the high latitude stations to about 12 TECU at the low latitude stations, while for the NeQuick the values are respectively about 2-7 TECU. Out of a total 4497 months in which GNSS data were available for all the stations put together for the entire period covered in this work, the NeQuick model was observed to perform better in about 83% of the months while the IRI-Plas performed better in about 17% of the months. The IRI-Plas generally performed better than the NeQuick at certain locations (e.g. DAV1, KERG, and ADIS). For both models, the most of the deviations were witnessed during local daytimes and during seasons that receive maximum solar radiation for various locations. In particular, the IRI-Plas model predictions were improved during periods of increased solar activity at the low latitude stations. The IRI-Plas model overestimates the GNSS VTEC values, except during high solar activity years at some high latitude stations. The NeQuick underestimates the TEC values during

  17. Rise of energy price, rise of agricultural prices: what medium- and long-term relations and implications?; Hausse du prix de l'energie, hausse des prix agricoles: quelles relations et implications a moyen et long terme?

    Voituriez, T.

    2009-07-01

    We review in this study the different factors which have been presented by the scientific community as possible explanations of the sudden upsurge in commodity prices between 2006 and 2008. We examine whether scientific evidence validates any causal relationship, and particularly emphasize the role of explanatory variables underpinning the co-movement of energy and food price rises. Our aim is to provide an up-to-date understanding of food and energy market relationships, so as to better anticipate the possible changes in the evolution of prices in the coming years. (author)

  18. Optically-controlled long-term storage and release of thermal energy in phase-change materials

    Han, Grace G. D.; Li, Huashan; Grossman, Jeffrey C.

    2017-01-01

    Thermal energy storage offers enormous potential for a wide range of energy technologies. Phase-change materials offer state-of-the-art thermal storage due to high latent heat. However, spontaneous heat loss from thermally charged phase-change materials to cooler surroundings occurs due to the absence of a significant energy barrier for the liquid–solid transition. This prevents control over the thermal storage, and developing effective methods to address this problem has remained an elusive ...

  19. Long term effects of different tillage systems influencing yield and energy efficiency in maize (Zea mays L.)

    Momirović, Nebojša; Dolijanović, Željko; Oljača, Mićo V.; Videnović, Živorad

    2011-01-01

    Adoption and improvement of different tillage systems toward agricultural sustainability has a great social, economical and environmental impact. The base of sustainability is a system productivity as ratio of output to input in a given system, measured in the same units, commonly as energy requirements. The objective of this study was to evaluate the aspect of energy requirements in the different soil tillage systems regarding total energy consumption under conventional tillage. The appropri...

  20. A study on making a long-term improvement in the national energy efficiency and GHG control plans by the AHP approach

    Lee, Seong Kon; Yoon, Yong Jin; Kim, Jong Wook

    2007-01-01

    Owing to the expiration of the national 10-year period plan and the establishment of an efficient energy and resource technology R and D system, the Korean government needs to make a strategic long-term national energy and resource technology R and D plan (NERP) to cope with forthcoming 10-year period. A new NERP aims to improve the energy intensity, reduce the emissions of greenhouse gas within the United Nations framework convention on climate change (UNFCCC), and contribute to the construction of an advanced economic system. We determine the priorities in technology development for the energy efficiency and greenhouse gas control plans (EGCP), which are parts of a new NERP, by using the AHP approach for the first time. We suggest a scientific procedure to determine the priorities in technology development by using AHP

  1. A long-term time series of global and diffuse photosynthetically active radiation in the Mediterranean: interannual variability and cloud effects

    P. Trisolino

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Measurements of global and diffuse photosynthetically active radiation (PAR have been carried out on the island of Lampedusa, in the central Mediterranean Sea, since 2002. PAR is derived from observations made with multi-filter rotating shadowband radiometers (MFRSRs by comparison with a freshly calibrated PAR sensor and by relying on the on-site Langley plots. In this way, a long-term calibrated record covering the period 2002–2016 is obtained and is presented in this work. The monthly mean global PAR peaks in June, with about 160 W m−2, while the diffuse PAR reaches 60 W m−2 in spring or summer. The global PAR displays a clear annual cycle with a semi amplitude of about 52 W m−2. The diffuse PAR annual cycle has a semi amplitude of about 12 W m−2. A simple method to retrieve the cloud-free PAR global and diffuse irradiances in days characterized by partly cloudy conditions has been implemented and applied to the dataset. This method allows retrieval of the cloud-free evolution of PAR and calculation of the cloud radiative effect, CRE, for downwelling PAR. The cloud-free monthly mean global PAR reaches 175 W m−2 in summer, while the diffuse PAR peaks at about 40 W m−2. The cloud radiative effect, CRE, on global and diffuse PAR is calculated as the difference between all-sky and cloud-free measurements. The annual average CRE is about −14.7 W m−2 for the global PAR and +8.1 W m−2 for the diffuse PAR. The smallest CRE is observed in July, due to the high cloud-free condition frequency. Maxima (negative for the global, and positive for the diffuse component occur in March–April and in October, due to the combination of elevated PAR irradiances and high occurrence of cloudy conditions. Summer clouds appear to be characterized by a low frequency of occurrence, low altitude, and low optical thickness, possibly linked to the peculiar marine boundary layer structure. These properties also contribute

  2. Exploring futures from an energy perspective. A natural capital accounting model study into the long-term economic development potential of the Netherlands

    Noorman, K.J.

    1995-01-01

    The need to quantify economic activity in physical flows has been stressed several times elsewhere. To relate economic development with 'physical reality', in this thesis Resource Accounting (or Natural Capital Accounting) has been adopted as a method. This physical perspective on sustainable development has been made operational by designing an ECCO (Enhancement of Capital Creation Options) model for the Netherlands using energy as a physical numeraire. The purpose of the model is to investigate the long-term physical aspects of contemporary and future (economic or political) strategies to move the economy towards a more sustainable state and to explore the dynamics of such a process. Chapter 2 deals with the physical nature of economic processes and the fundamental role of thermodynamics in an economic system. Chapter 3 discusses the application of the ECCO paradigm within the context of Natural Capital Accounting methodology. Furthermore, the main structure of an ECCO model is presented. Chapter 4 elaborates on the Dutch model. Historical trends in direct energy use and the methodology of I-O analysis as well as the results of I-O analysis are presented in chapter 5. A method has been developed to estimate the primary energy captured in capital stocks in the diverse ECCO sectors. This method as well as the results, derived from applying this method, are presented in chapter 6. In chapter 7 the application of ECCO as a tool for assessing long term physical consequences of different development strategies is discussed. With respect to reducing the throughput of matter and energy, this study concentrates on energy conservation to reduce the demand for primary energy and the transition to a more sustainable energy supply sector by introducing renewable energy sources. figs., tabs., appendices, refs

  3. 76 FR 80913 - Carib Energy (USA) LLC; Application for Long-Term Authorization To Export Domestically Produced...

    2011-12-27

    ... volumes of domestic shale gas reserves and its development and extraction, as well as continued low... development of previously undeveloped reserves of domestic shale gas.\\3\\ The Annual Energy Outlook 2010, prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), forecasted shale gas production to increase...

  4. UNEP-IOC-WMO-IUCN meeting of experts on a long-term global monitoring system of coastal and near-shore phenomena related to climate change, pilot projects and mangroves and coral reefs

    1991-01-01

    This meeting was held to develop strategies for long-term global monitoring of coastal and near-shore phenomena related to climate change, specifically mangroves and coral reefs. The agenda included an overview of the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) initiative, modules and pilot phase activities. Action plans for the implementation of long-term monitoring of mangrove and coral reef ecosystems were developed including; potential impacts of climate change and sea level rise on mangroves and coral reefs, consideration of parameters, consideration of methodologies, relationships of proposed activities to relevant national, regional and international developments, consideration of monitoring sites, and future implementation.

  5. Aiming at super long term application of nuclear energy. Scope and subjects on the water cooled breeder reactor, the 'reduced moderation water reactor'

    Sato, Osamu; Tatematsu, Kenji; Tanaka, Yoji

    2001-01-01

    In order to make possible on nuclear energy application for super long term, development of sodium cooling type fast breeder reactor (FBR) has been carried out before today. However, as it was found that its commercialization was technically and economically difficult beyond expectation, a number of nations withdrew from its development. And, as Japan has continued its development, scope of its actual application is not found yet. Now, a research and development on a water cooling type breeder reactor, the reduced moderation water reactor (RMWR)' using LWR technology has now been progressed under a center of JAERI. This RMWR is a reactor intending a jumping upgrade of conversion ratio by densely arranging fuel bars to shift neutron spectrum to faster region. The RMWR has a potential realizable on full-dress plutonium application at earlier timing through its high conversion ratio, high combustion degree, plutonium multi-recycling, and so on. And, it has also feasibility to solve uranium resource problem by realization of conversion ratio with more than 1.0, to contribute to super long term application of nuclear energy. Here was investigated on an effect of reactor core on RMWR, especially of its conversion ratio and plutonium loading on introduction effect as well as on how RMWR could be contributed to reduction of uranium resource consumption, by drawing some scenario on development of power generation reactor and fuel cycle in Japan under scope of super long term with more than 100 years in future. And, trial calculation on power generation cost of the RMWR was carried out to investigate some subjects at a viewpoint of upgrading on economy. (G.K.)

  6. Long-term evaluation of biomass production and quality of two cardoon (Cynara cardunculus L.) cultivars for energy use

    Angelini, Luciana G.; Ceccarini, Lucia; Nassi o Di Nasso, Nicoletta [University of Pisa, Dipartimento di Agronomia e Gestione dell' Agroecosistema, Via S. Michele degli Scalzi, 2, 56100 Pisa (Italy); Bonari, Enrico [Scuola Sant' Anna, Piazza Martiri della Liberta, 33, 56100 Pisa (Italy)

    2009-05-15

    Cardoon (Cynara cardunculus L.) is an herbaceous species indicated as one of the most suitable energy crop for southern European countries. The aim of this work was to outline the productivity of two cardoon cultivars, Bianco Avorio (BA) and Gigante di Romagna (GR), over 11 years of cultivation in rain fed field conditions in the temperate climate of Central Italy. The quantitative and qualitative aspects of its biomass (calorific value, ultimate and proximate analyses, ash composition) as well as its energy balance (energy efficiency, net energy yield) have been determined. Crop dry yield was not different between the two cultivars and it was rather stable with a mean value (averaged from year 3 to 11) of 14 and 13 t ha{sup -1} for GR and BA respectively. Furthermore the biomass dry matter content was higher in BA than GR (51% vs 42%). The chemical analysis of cardoon biomass showed a similar composition in both cultivars with good calorific value (15 MJ kg{sup -1}) but with an ash content (13.9% d.w.) higher than other herbaceous energy crops. The total energy input was higher in the establishing than in the following years, however from the planting year onward, both cardoon crops were characterised by a positive energy balance. Even if its mean net energy is lower than other perennial energy crops (182 GJ ha{sup -1} year{sup -1}), cardoon can be easily propagated by seed with important advantages for crop management and production costs. The results confirmed cardoon's good biomass yield and favourable energy balance even in cultivation systems characterised by limited water input. Moreover future works are necessary in order to improve cardoon biomass quality and to evaluate the possibility of using it in blends with other biomass sources. (author)

  7. Long-term evaluation of biomass production and quality of two cardoon (Cynara cardunculus L.) cultivars for energy use

    Angelini, Luciana G.; Ceccarini, Lucia; Nassi o Di Nasso, Nicoletta; Bonari, Enrico

    2009-01-01

    Cardoon (Cynara cardunculus L.) is an herbaceous species indicated as one of the most suitable energy crop for southern European countries. The aim of this work was to outline the productivity of two cardoon cultivars, Bianco Avorio (BA) and Gigante di Romagna (GR), over 11 years of cultivation in rain fed field conditions in the temperate climate of Central Italy. The quantitative and qualitative aspects of its biomass (calorific value, ultimate and proximate analyses, ash composition) as well as its energy balance (energy efficiency, net energy yield) have been determined. Crop dry yield was not different between the two cultivars and it was rather stable with a mean value (averaged from year 3 to 11) of 14 and 13 t ha -1 for GR and BA respectively. Furthermore the biomass dry matter content was higher in BA than GR (51% vs 42%). The chemical analysis of cardoon biomass showed a similar composition in both cultivars with good calorific value (15 MJ kg -1 ) but with an ash content (13.9% d.w.) higher than other herbaceous energy crops. The total energy input was higher in the establishing than in the following years, however from the planting year onward, both cardoon crops were characterised by a positive energy balance. Even if its mean net energy is lower than other perennial energy crops (182 GJ ha -1 year -1 ), cardoon can be easily propagated by seed with important advantages for crop management and production costs. The results confirmed cardoon's good biomass yield and favourable energy balance even in cultivation systems characterised by limited water input. Moreover future works are necessary in order to improve cardoon biomass quality and to evaluate the possibility of using it in blends with other biomass sources.

  8. An assessment of the potentials of nuclear power and carbon capture and storage in the long-term global warming mitigation options based on Asian Modeling Exercise scenarios

    Mori, Shunsuke

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents an evaluation of global warming mitigation options based on scenarios from the Asian Modeling Exercise. Using an extended version of the integrated assessment model MARIA-23 (Multiregional Approach for Resource and Industry Allocation), we analyze nuclear fuel recycling options, carbon capture and storage technologies (CCS), and biomass utilization. To assess the potential implications of decreased social acceptance of nuclear power in the wake of the Fukushima nuclear accident, additional scenarios including a nuclear power expansion limitation, are analyzed. We also evaluate MARIA-23 model simulation estimates of long-term contributions and interrelationships among nuclear power, biomass, and CCS. Finally, potential costs of nuclear limitation under carbon control policies are assessed. The simulation results in this paper suggest the following: (1) under the reference scenario, global GDP losses in climate limitation scenarios range from 1.3% per year to 3.9% per year in 2060, rising to between 3.5% per year and 4.5% per year in 2100; (2) the use of nuclear fuel reprocessing technologies increase rapidly in all carbon control policy scenarios; (3) under a scenario where the price of CO 2 is $30 and nuclear power expansion is strictly limited, GDP losses increase significantly—from 4.5% per year to 6.4% per year by 2100; (4) nuclear power and CCS are substitute mitigation technologies. With nuclear power technology available CCS deployment reaches approximately 15,000 Mt-CO 2 per year by 2010; without a nuclear power option, CCS deployment rises to more than 80,000 Mt-CO 2 per year; and (5) biomass utilization cannot fully compensate for limitations to nuclear power expansion in policy scenarios. In addition to examining the role of these three technologies on global scales, we report results for several major Asian regions, namely Japan, China, and India. China tends to deploy nuclear power (if available) in response to rapidly growing

  9. Optically-controlled long-term storage and release of thermal energy in phase-change materials.

    Han, Grace G D; Li, Huashan; Grossman, Jeffrey C

    2017-11-13

    Thermal energy storage offers enormous potential for a wide range of energy technologies. Phase-change materials offer state-of-the-art thermal storage due to high latent heat. However, spontaneous heat loss from thermally charged phase-change materials to cooler surroundings occurs due to the absence of a significant energy barrier for the liquid-solid transition. This prevents control over the thermal storage, and developing effective methods to address this problem has remained an elusive goal. Herein, we report a combination of photo-switching dopants and organic phase-change materials as a way to introduce an activation energy barrier for phase-change materials solidification and to conserve thermal energy in the materials, allowing them to be triggered optically to release their stored latent heat. This approach enables the retention of thermal energy (about 200 J g -1 ) in the materials for at least 10 h at temperatures lower than the original crystallization point, unlocking opportunities for portable thermal energy storage systems.

  10. Building long-term and high spatio-temporal resolution precipitation and air temperature reanalyses by mixing local observations and global atmospheric reanalyses: the ANATEM model

    A. Kuentz

    2015-06-01

    The ANATEM model has been also evaluated for the regional scale against independent long-term time series and was able to capture regional low-frequency variability over more than a century (1883–2010.

  11. Long-term exposure of the isopod Porcellionides pruinosus to nickel: Costs in the energy budget and detoxification enzymes.

    Ferreira, Nuno G C; Cardoso, Diogo N; Morgado, Rui; Soares, Amadeu M V M; Loureiro, Susana

    2015-09-01

    Terrestrial isopods from the species Porcellionides pruinosus were exposed to the maximum allowed nickel concentration in the Canadian framework guideline (50 mg Ni/kg soil) and to 5× this concentration (250 mg Ni/kg soil). The exposure lasted for 28 days and was followed by a recovery period of 14 days where organisms were changed to clean soil. Organisms were sampled after 24 h, 48 h, 96 h, 7 days, 14 days, 21 days, and 28 days of exposure, and at days 35 and 42 during the recovery period. For each sampling time the acetylcholinesterase (AChE), glutathione-S-transferases (GST), catalase (CAT), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) activities were determined as well as lipid peroxidation rate (LPO) along with lipids, carbohydrates, proteins content, energy available (Ea), energy consumption (Ec) and cellular energy allocation (CEA). The integrated biomarker response (IBR) was calculated for each sampling time as well as for each one of the above parameters. In addition, mortality was also recorded throughout the assay. The results obtained showed that nickel induced oxidative stress, evidenced by results on GST, GPx, CAT or LPO, but also on changes in the energy reserves content of these organisms. In addition, this study showed that these organisms possess a specific strategy to handle nickel toxicity. In this case, biomarkers were associated with costs in the energy budget, and the increase of energy reserves has a compensation for that cost. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Long term radioactive waste management

    Lavie, J.M.

    1984-01-01

    In France, waste management, a sensitive issue in term of public opinion, is developing quickly, and due to twenty years of experience, is now reaching maturity. With the launching of the French nuclear programme, the use of radioactive sources in radiotherapy and industry, waste management has become an industrial activity. Waste management is an integrated system dealing with the wastes from their production to the long term disposal, including their identification, sortage, treatment, packaging, collection and transport. This system aims at guaranteing the protection of present and future populations with an available technology. In regard to their long term management, and the design of disposals, radioactive wastes are divided in three categories. This classification takes into account the different radioisotopes contained, their half life and their total activity. Presently short-lived wastes are stored in the shallowland disposal of the ''Centre de la Manche''. Set up within the French Atomic Energy Commission (CEA), the National Agency for waste management (ANDRA) is responsible within the framework of legislative and regulatory provisions for long term waste management in France [fr

  13. Integrated assessment of the health and economic benefits of long-term renewable energy development in China

    Dai, H.; Xie, Y.; Zhang, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Context/Purpose: Power generation from renewable energy (RE) could substitute huge amount of fossil energy in the power sector and have substantial co-benefits of air quality and human health improvement. In 2016, China National Renewable Energy Center (CNREC) released China Renewable Energy Outlook, CREO2016 and CREO2017, towards 2030 and 2050, respectively, in which two scenarios are proposed, namely, a conservative "Stated Policy" scenario and a more ambitious "High RE" scenario. This study, together with CNREC, aims to quantify the health and economic benefits of developing renewable energy at the provincial level in China up to 2030 and 2050. Methods: For this purpose, we developed an integrated approach that combines a power dispatch model at CNREC, an air pollutant emission projection model using energy consumption data from the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model, an air quality model (GEOS-Chem at Harvard), an own-developed health model, and a macro economic model (Computable General Equilibrium model). Results: All together, we attempt to quantify how developing RE could reduce the concentration of PM2.5 and ozone in 30 provinces of China, how the human health could be improved in terms of mortality, morbidity and work hour loss, and what is the economic value of the health improvement in terms of increased GDP and the value of statistical life lost. The results show that developing RE as stated in the CREO2016 could prevent chronic mortality of 286 thousand people in China in 2030 alone, the value of saved statistical life is worthy 1200 billion Yuan, equivalent to 1.2% of GDP. In addition, averagely, due to reduced mortality and improved morbidity each person could work additionally by 1.16 hours per year, this could contribute to an increase of GDP by 0.1% in 2030. The assessment up to 2050 is still underway. Interpretation: The results imply that when the external benefit of renewable energy is taken into account, RE could be

  14. Long-Term Collections

    Staff Association

    2016-01-01

    45 years helping in developing countries! CERN personnel have been helping the least fortunate people on the planet since 1971. How? With the Long-Term Collections! Dear Colleagues, The Staff Association’s Long-Term Collections (LTC) Committee is delighted to share this important milestone in the life of our Laboratory with you. Indeed, whilst the name of CERN is known worldwide for scientific discoveries, it also shines in the many humanitarian projects which have been supported by the LTC since 1971. Several schools and clinics, far and wide, carry its logo... Over the past 45 years, 74 projects have been supported (9 of which are still ongoing). This all came from a group of colleagues who wanted to share a little of what life offered them here at CERN, in this haven of mutual understanding, peace and security, with those who were less fortunate elsewhere. Thus, the LTC were born... Since then, we have worked as a team to maintain the dream of these visionaries, with the help of regular donat...

  15. Long-Term Collection

    Staff Association

    2016-01-01

    Dear Colleagues, As previously announced in Echo (No. 254), your delegates took action to draw attention to the projects of the Long-Term Collections (LTC), the humanitarian body of the CERN Staff Association. On Tuesday, 11 October, at noon, small Z-Cards were widely distributed at the entrances of CERN restaurants and we thank you all for your interest. We hope to have achieved an important part of our goal, which was to inform you, convince you and find new supporters among you. We will find out in the next few days! An exhibition of the LTC was also set up in the Main Building for the entire week. The Staff Association wants to celebrate the occasion of the Long-Term Collection’s 45th anniversary at CERN because, ever since 1971, CERN personnel have showed great support in helping the least fortunate people on the planet in a variety of ways according to their needs. On a regular basis, joint fundraising appeals are made with the Directorate to help the victims of natural disasters around th...

  16. Collectes à long terme

    Collectes à long terme

    2014-01-01

    En cette fin d’année 2014 qui approche à grands pas, le Comité des Collectes à Long Terme remercie chaleureusement ses fidèles donatrices et donateurs réguliers pour leurs contributions à nos actions en faveur des plus démunis de notre planète. C’est très important, pour notre Comité, de pouvoir compter sur l’appui assidu que vous nous apportez. Depuis plus de 40 ans maintenant, le modèle des CLT est basé principalement sur des actions à long terme (soit une aide pendant 4-5 ans par projet, mais plus parfois selon les circonstances), et sa planification demande une grande régularité de ses soutiens financiers. Grand MERCI à vous ! D’autres dons nous parviennent au cours de l’année, et ils sont aussi les bienvenus. En particulier, nous tenons à remercier...

  17. Japan's long-term energy outlook to 2050: Estimation for the potential of massive CO2 mitigation

    Komiyama, Ryoichi

    2010-09-15

    This paper analyzes Japan's energy outlook and CO2 emissions to 2050. Scenario analysis reveals that Japan's CO2 emissions in 2050 could be potentially reduced by 58% from the emissions in 2005. For achieving this massive mitigation, it is required to reduce primary energy supply per GDP by 60% in 2050 from the 2005 level and to expand the share of non-fossil fuel in total supply to 50% by 2050. Concerning power generation mix, nuclear will account for 60%, renewable for 30% in 2050. For massive CO2 abatement, Japan should tackle technological and economic challenges for large-scale deployment of advanced technologies.

  18. Rise of energy price, rise of agricultural prices: what medium- and long-term relations and implications?

    Voituriez, T.

    2009-01-01

    We review in this study the different factors which have been presented by the scientific community as possible explanations of the sudden upsurge in commodity prices between 2006 and 2008. We examine whether scientific evidence validates any causal relationship, and particularly emphasize the role of explanatory variables underpinning the co-movement of energy and food price rises. Our aim is to provide an up-to-date understanding of food and energy market relationships, so as to better anticipate the possible changes in the evolution of prices in the coming years. (author)

  19. Compressed sensing embedded in an operational wireless sensor network to achieve energy efficiency in long-term monitoring applications

    O’Connor, S M; Lynch, J P; Gilbert, A C

    2014-01-01

    Compressed sensing (CS) is a powerful new data acquisition paradigm that seeks to accurately reconstruct unknown sparse signals from very few (relative to the target signal dimension) random projections. The specific objective of this study is to save wireless sensor energy by using CS to simultaneously reduce data sampling rates, on-board storage requirements, and communication data payloads. For field-deployed low power wireless sensors that are often operated with limited energy sources, reduced communication translates directly into reduced power consumption and improved operational reliability. In this study, acceleration data from a multi-girder steel-concrete deck composite bridge are processed for the extraction of mode shapes. A wireless sensor node previously designed to perform traditional uniform, Nyquist rate sampling is modified to perform asynchronous, effectively sub-Nyquist rate sampling. The sub-Nyquist data are transmitted off-site to a computational server for reconstruction using the CoSaMP matching pursuit recovery algorithm and further processed for extraction of the structure’s mode shapes. The mode shape metric used for reconstruction quality is the modal assurance criterion (MAC), an indicator of the consistency between CS and traditional Nyquist acquired mode shapes. A comprehensive investigation of modal accuracy from a dense set of acceleration response data reveals that MAC values above 0.90 are obtained for the first four modes of a bridge structure when at least 20% of the original signal is sampled using the CS framework. Reduced data collection, storage and communication requirements are found to lead to substantial reductions in the energy requirements of wireless sensor networks at the expense of modal accuracy. Specifically, total energy reductions of 10–60% can be obtained for a sensor network with 10–100 sensor nodes, respectively. The reduced energy requirements of the CS sensor nodes are shown to directly result in

  20. An analysis of long-term scenarios for the transition to renewable energy in the Korean electricity sector

    Park, Nyun-Bae; Yun, Sun-Jin; Jeon, Eui-Chan

    2013-01-01

    This paper analyzes the energy, environmental and economic influences of three electricity scenarios in Korea by 2050 using the “Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system” (LEAP) model. The reference year was 2008. Scenarios include the baseline (BL), new governmental policy (GP) and sustainable society (SS) scenarios. The growth rate of electricity demand in the GP scenario was higher than that of the BL scenario while the growth rate in the SS scenario was lower than that of the BL scenario. Greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation in 2050 in the BL and GP scenarios were similar with current emissions. However, emissions in 2050 in the SS scenario were about 80% lower than emissions in 2008, because of the expansion of renewable electricity in spite of the phase-out of nuclear energy. While nuclear and coal-fired power plants accounted for most of the electricity generated in the BL and GP scenarios in 2050, the SS scenario projected that renewable energy would generate the most electricity in 2050. It was found that the discounted cumulative costs from 2009 to 2050 in the SS scenario would be 20 and 10% higher than that of the BL and GP scenarios, respectively. - Highlights: ► This paper analyzed three kinds of electricity scenarios in Korea by 2050 using LEAP model. Baseline and governmental policy scenarios focus on the electricity supply through nuclear expansion. ► Sustainable Society scenario focuses on demand management and renewable electricity. ► The latter improves energy security and reduces more GHG with the affordable cost.

  1. LONG-TERM MONITORING OF MRK 501 FOR ITS VERY HIGH ENERGY {gamma} EMISSION AND A FLARE IN 2011 OCTOBER

    Bartoli, B.; Catalanotti, S. [Dipartimento di Fisica dell' Universita di Napoli ' Federico II' , Complesso Universitario di Monte Sant' Angelo, via Cinthia, I-80126 Napoli (Italy); Bernardini, P.; Bleve, C. [Dipartimento di Matematica e Fisica ' E. De Giorgi' dell' Universita del Salento, via per Arnesano, I-73100 Lecce (Italy); Bi, X. J.; Cao, Z.; Chen, S. Z.; Chen, Y. [Key Laboratory of Particle Astrophysics, Institute of High Energy Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, P.O. Box 918, 100049 Beijing (China); Bolognino, I. [Dipartimento di Fisica Nucleare e Teorica dell' Universita di Pavia, via Bassi 6, I-27100 Pavia (Italy); Branchini, P.; Budano, A. [Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Sezione di Roma Tre, via della Vasca Navale 84, I-00146 Roma (Italy); Calabrese Melcarne, A. K. [Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare-CNAF, Viale Berti-Pichat 6/2, I-40127 Bologna (Italy); Camarri, P. [Dipartimento di Fisica dell' Universita di Roma ' Tor Vergata' , via della Ricerca Scientifica 1, I-00133 Roma (Italy); Cardarelli, R. [Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Sezione di Roma Tor Vergata, via della Ricerca Scientifica 1, I-00133 Roma (Italy); Cattaneo, C. [Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Sezione di Pavia, via Bassi 6, I-27100 Pavia (Italy); Chen, T. L. [Tibet University, 850000 Lhasa, Xizang (China); Creti, P. [Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Sezione di Lecce, via per Arnesano, I-73100 Lecce (Italy); Cui, S. W. [Hebei Normal University, Shijiazhuang 050016, Hebei (China); Dai, B. Z. [Yunnan University, 2 North Cuihu Rd., 650091 Kunming, Yunnan (China); D' Ali Staiti, G., E-mail: chensz@ihep.ac.cn [Dipartimento di Fisica e Tecnologie Relative, Universita degli Studi di Palermo, Viale delle Scienze, Edificio 18, I-90128 Palermo (Italy); Collaboration: ARGO-YBJ Collaboration; and others

    2012-10-10

    As one of the brightest active blazars in both X-ray and very high energy {gamma}-ray bands, Mrk 501, is very useful for physics associated with jets from active galactic nuclei. The ARGO-YBJ experiment has monitored Mrk 501 for {gamma}-rays above 0.3 TeV since 2007 November. The largest flare since 2005 was observed from 2011 October and lasted until about 2012 April. In this paper, a detailed analysis of this event is reported. During the brightest {gamma}-ray flaring episodes from 2011 October 17 to November 22, an excess of the event rate over 6{sigma} is detected by ARGO-YBJ in the direction of Mrk 501, corresponding to an increase of the {gamma}-ray flux above 1 TeV by a factor of 6.6 {+-} 2.2 from its steady emission. In particular, the {gamma}-ray flux above 8 TeV is detected with a significance better than 4{sigma}. Based on time-dependent synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) processes, the broadband energy spectrum is interpreted as the emission from an electron energy distribution parameterized with a single power-law function with an exponential cutoff at its high-energy end. The average spectral energy distribution for the steady emission is well described by this simple one-zone SSC model. However, the detection of {gamma}-rays above 8 TeV during the flare challenges this model due to the hardness of the spectra. Correlations between X-rays and {gamma}-rays are also investigated.

  2. Accomplishments of the MUSICA project to provide accurate, long-term, global and high-resolution observations of tropospheric {H2O,δD} pairs - a review

    Schneider, Matthias; Wiegele, Andreas; Barthlott, Sabine; González, Yenny; Christner, Emanuel; Dyroff, Christoph; García, Omaira E.; Hase, Frank; Blumenstock, Thomas; Sepúlveda, Eliezer; Mengistu Tsidu, Gizaw; Takele Kenea, Samuel; Rodríguez, Sergio; Andrey, Javier

    2016-07-01

    In the lower/middle troposphere, {H2O,δD} pairs are good proxies for moisture pathways; however, their observation, in particular when using remote sensing techniques, is challenging. The project MUSICA (MUlti-platform remote Sensing of Isotopologues for investigating the Cycle of Atmospheric water) addresses this challenge by integrating the remote sensing with in situ measurement techniques. The aim is to retrieve calibrated tropospheric {H2O,δD} pairs from the middle infrared spectra measured from ground by FTIR (Fourier transform infrared) spectrometers of the NDACC (Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change) and the thermal nadir spectra measured by IASI (Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer) aboard the MetOp satellites. In this paper, we present the final MUSICA products, and discuss the characteristics and potential of the NDACC/FTIR and MetOp/IASI {H2O,δD} data pairs. First, we briefly resume the particularities of an {H2O,δD} pair retrieval. Second, we show that the remote sensing data of the final product version are absolutely calibrated with respect to H2O and δD in situ profile references measured in the subtropics, between 0 and 7 km. Third, we reveal that the {H2O,δD} pair distributions obtained from the different remote sensors are consistent and allow distinct lower/middle tropospheric moisture pathways to be identified in agreement with multi-year in situ references. Fourth, we document the possibilities of the NDACC/FTIR instruments for climatological studies (due to long-term monitoring) and of the MetOp/IASI sensors for observing diurnal signals on a quasi-global scale and with high horizontal resolution. Fifth, we discuss the risk of misinterpreting {H2O,δD} pair distributions due to incomplete processing of the remote sensing products.

  3. Long-term MRI cell tracking after intraventricular delivery in a patient with global cerebral ischemia and prospects for magnetic navigation of stem cells within the CSF.

    Miroslaw Janowski

    Full Text Available The purpose of the study was to evaluate the long-term clinical tracking of magnetically labeled stem cells after intracerebroventricular transplantation as well as to investigate in vitro feasibility for magnetic guidance of cell therapy within large fluid compartments.After approval by our Institutional Review Board, an 18-month-old patient, diagnosed as being in a vegetative state due to global cerebral ischemia, underwent cell transplantation to the frontal horn of the lateral ventricle, with umbilical cord blood-derived stem cells labeled with superparamagnetic iron oxide (SPIO contrast agent. The patient was followed over 33 months with clinical examinations and MRI. To evaluate the forces governing the distribution of cells within the fluid compartment of the ventricular system in vivo, a gravity-driven sedimentation assay and a magnetic field-driven cell attraction assay were developed in vitro.Twenty-four hours post-transplantation, MR imaging (MRI was able to detect hypointense cells in the occipital horn of the lateral ventricle. The signal gradually decreased over 4 months and became undetectable at 33 months. In vitro, no significant difference in cell sedimentation between SPIO-labeled and unlabeled cells was observed (p = NS. An external magnet was effective in attracting cells over distances comparable to the size of human lateral ventricles.MR imaging of SPIO-labeled cells allows monitoring of cells within lateral ventricles. While the initial biodistribution is governed by gravity-driven sedimentation, an external magnetic field may possibly be applied to further direct the distribution of labeled cells within large fluid compartments such as the ventricular system.

  4. Multi-criteria group decision support with linguistic variables in long-term scenarios for Belgian energy policy

    Ruan, Da; Lu, Jie; Laes, Erik; Zhang, Guangquan; Ma, Jun; Meskens, Gaston

    2010-01-01

    Real world decisions often made in the presence of multiple, conflicting, and incommensurate criteria. Decision making requires multiple perspectives of different individuals as more decisions are made now in groups than ever before. This is particularly true when the decision environment becomes more complex such as sustainability policies study in environmental and energy sectors. Group decision making processes judgments or solutions for decision problems based on the input and feedback of...

  5. Implications of the international reduction pledges on long-term energy system changes and costs in China and India

    Lucas, Paul L.; Shukla, P.R.; Chen, Wenying

    2013-01-01

    India and China with respect to the timing of emission reductions and the choice of mitigation measures relate to differences in projections of rapid economic change, capital stock turnover and technological development. Furthermore, depending on the way it is implemented, climate policy could increase...... indoor air pollution, but it is likely to provide synergies for energy security. These relations should be taken into account when designing national climate policies. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved....

  6. The effect of heavy water reactors and liquid fuel reactors on the long-term development of nuclear energy

    Brand, P.; Wiechers, W.K.

    1974-01-01

    The effects of the rates at which various combinations of power reactor types are installed on the long-range (to the year 2040) uranium and plutonium inventory requirements are examined. Consideration is given to light water reactors, fast breeder reactors, high temperature gas-cooled reactors, heavy water reactors, and thermal breeder reactors, in various combinations, and assuming alternatively a 3% and a 5% growth in energy demand

  7. The long-term supply/demand trend of world energy and the current oil situation in the Asia

    Okamoto, Hiroyuki

    1996-01-01

    Total world primary energy consumption excluding the FSU increased by 2.9% in 1995, which is somewhat above the 10 year average rate of 2.4%. This reflected strong economic growth in most parts of the world. The increase in demand confirmed the recovery of the link between the economic growth and consumption of primary energy, which broke down in the period of oil crises. Oil demand in the Asian Emerging Market Economies has continued to be very strong. Oil demand has doubled in a decade in this region and is now one sixth of world consumption. Malaysia was the fastest growing oil market in the world in 1995 at 15.5%. In volume terms, S. Korea grew the most in the world by 170,000 b/d, closely followed by China and India. Because of the fast growing oil demand, many energy economists expect a tight supply situation in the Asian oil market in the early 21st Century. However, recent technological developments would be able to supply crude oil appropriate for an increase in oil demand. (author)

  8. Long-term energy consumptions of urban transportation: A prospective simulation of 'transport-land uses' policies in Bangalore

    Lefevre, Benoit

    2009-01-01

    The current trends of urban dynamics in the Third World are alarming with regard to climate change, because they are giving an increasingly important role to cars-to the detriment of public and non-motorized transportation. Yet this is the type of energy consumption that is expected to grow the fastest, in business-as-usual scenarios. How can these market-based urban trends be influenced? What level of emissions reduction can be achieved? This article shows that first, there is a relevant and urgent need to tackle the urban dynamics of cities in developing countries focusing on the 'transport-land uses' couple, and second, that existing transport technologies and decision-helping tools are already available to take up the climate change challenge. Through the application of an integrated 'transport-land uses' model, TRANUS, this study demonstrates that transit technologies affordable to an emerging city like Bangalore can significantly curb the trajectories of energy consumption and the ensuing carbon dioxide emissions, if and only if they are implemented in the framework of appropriate urban planning. Furthermore, this study establishes that there are tools which are available to facilitate the necessary policy-making processes. These tools allow stakeholders to discuss different political alternatives integrating energy issues, based on quantitative assessments

  9. Is there a water–energy nexus in electricity generation? Long-term scenarios for the western United States

    Ackerman, Frank; Fisher, Jeremy

    2013-01-01

    Water is required for energy supply, and energy is required for water supply, creating problems as demand for both resources grows. We analyze this “water–energy nexus” as it affects long-run electricity planning in the western United States. We develop four scenarios assuming: no new constraints; limits on carbon emissions; limits on water use; and combined carbon and water limits. We evaluate these scenarios through 2100 under a range of carbon and water prices. The carbon-reducing scenarios become cost-effective at carbon prices of about $50–$70 per ton of CO 2 , moderately high but plausible within the century. In contrast, the water-conserving scenarios are not cost-effective until water prices reach thousands of dollars per acre-foot, well beyond foreseeable levels. This is due in part to the modest available water savings: our most and least water-intensive scenarios differ by less than 1% of the region's water consumption. Under our assumptions, Western electricity generation could be reshaped by the cost of carbon emissions, but not by the cost of water, over the course of this century. Both climate change and water scarcity are of critical importance, but only in the former is electricity generation central to the problem and its solutions. - Highlights: • We model long-run electricity supply and demand for the western United States. • We evaluate the costs of carbon-reducing and water-conserving scenarios. • Carbon-reducing scenarios become cost-effective at carbon prices of $50–70 per ton CO 2 . • Water-conserving scenarios are only cost-effective above $4000/acre-foot of water. • Electricity planning is central to climate policy, but much less so to water planning

  10. Energy efficiency and demand respond programs play vital roles in short- and long-term system reliability

    Mitola, J. P.

    2003-12-01

    The effects of deregulation of the electric power industry on the reliability of the power grid in the United States are examined. Three major factors -- customer load, utility infrastructure, and demand response -- together are suggested as being most important; the ability of the industry to maintain the equilibrium among these three factors will determine the success or failure of deregulation. Each of these factors are examined in turn, followed by recommendations encouraging demand response or energy efficiency innovations, particularly new demand response technologies that are reliable, measurable, competitive to end-users, and fully dispatchable to utilities.

  11. Planning for the Transition to Long-Term Stewardship at Three U.S. Department of Energy-Chicago Operations Office Facilities

    Moos, L. P.; Ditmars, J. D.; Heston, S. L.; Granzen, G. A.; Holzemer, M. J.; Bennett, D. B.

    2003-01-01

    This paper describes a pilot study that resulted in the generation of draft planning documents for the upcoming transition from remediation construction to long-term stewardship at three national laboratories managed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)-Chicago Operations Office (CH). The remediation construction work at these facilities is being completed under the DOE's Office of Environmental Management (EM) Program. Once the remediation is complete, the responsibility for long-term stewardship (LTS) of the closed waste sites is expected to be transferred to the DOE organization responsible for managing each of the three facilities (i.e., the site landlord). To prepare for this transfer, an extensive planning effort is required. This pilot study utilized the DOE guidance in effect at the time to (1) develop a series of documents identifying applicable requirements that the LTS Programs will need to satisfy, issues that need to be resolved before the transfer can proceed, and criteria to be used to determine when active remediation is complete and a given site is ready for transfer to the LTS Program; (2) examine alternate structures for possible LTS Programs; and (3) develop draft LTS Implementation Plans. This advanced planning effort yielded a number of observations and lessons learned that are applicable to any facility approaching the end of its remediation construction phase

  12. Long-Term Dietary Supplementation with Yerba Mate Ameliorates Diet-Induced Obesity and Metabolic Disorders in Mice by Regulating Energy Expenditure and Lipid Metabolism.

    Choi, Myung-Sook; Park, Hyo Jin; Kim, Sang Ryong; Kim, Do Yeon; Jung, Un Ju

    2017-12-01

    This study evaluated whether long-term supplementation with dietary yerba mate has beneficial effects on adiposity and its related metabolic dysfunctions in diet-induced obese mice. C57BL/6J mice were randomly divided into two groups and fed their respective experimental diets for 16 weeks as follows: (1) control group fed with high-fat diet (HFD) and (2) mate group fed with HFD plus yerba mate. Dietary yerba mate increased energy expenditure and thermogenic gene mRNA expression in white adipose tissue (WAT) and decreased fatty acid synthase (FAS) mRNA expression in WAT, which may be linked to observed decreases in body weight, WAT weight, epididymal adipocyte size, and plasma leptin level. Yerba mate also decreased levels of plasma lipids (free fatty acids, triglycerides, and total cholesterol) and liver aminotransferase enzymes, as well as the accumulation of hepatic lipid droplets and lipid content by inhibiting the activities of hepatic lipogenic enzymes, such as FAS and phosphatidate phosphohydrolase, and increasing fecal lipid excretion. Moreover, yerba mate decreased the levels of plasma insulin as well as the homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance, and improved glucose tolerance. Circulating levels of gastric inhibitory polypeptide and resistin were also decreased in the mate group. These findings suggest that long-term supplementation of dietary yerba mate may be beneficial for improving diet-induced adiposity, insulin resistance, dyslipidemia, and hepatic steatosis.

  13. Long-term Study of the Light Curve of PKS 1510-089 in GeV Energies

    Prince, Raj; Gupta, Nayantara [Raman Research Institute, Sadashivanagar, Bangalore 560080 (India); Majumdar, Pratik, E-mail: rajprince@rri.res.in [Saha Institute of Nuclear Physics, HBNI, Kolkata, West Bengal 700064 (India)

    2017-07-20

    We have analyzed data from the flat-spectrum radio quasar PKS 1510-089 collected over a period of eight years from 2008 August to 2016 December with the Fermi -LAT. We have identified several flares of this highly variable source, studied their temporal and spectral properties in detail, and compared with previous works on flares of PKS 1510-089. Five major flares and a few subflares or substructures have been identified in our study. The fastest variability time is found to be 1.30 ± 0.18 hr between MJD 55852.063 and 55852.188, where we estimate the minimum size of the emission region to be 4.85 × 10{sup 15} cm. In most of the flares, the spectral energy distributions are better fitted with a log-parabolic distribution compared to a simple power law or a power law with exponential cutoffs. This has strong physics implications regarding the nature of the high-energy gamma-ray emission region.

  14. Opening address of the workshop on medium and long term energy policies in the mediterranean basin countries

    Rastoin, J

    1988-04-01

    The countries surrounding the Mediterranean basin form a geographical unit with a rich historical and cultural past. For thousands of years, the Mediterranean area has been at the crossroads of both links and strifes for warfare, religion and trade affairs. As a result, the populations have shown their identities, as well as their limits and needs. These needs, fulfilled by numerous sea-born exchanges, have shown the necessity for these seaside countries of a good understanding between themselves. Any long period of strife between the Northern and the Southern seaside countries, and the Eastern and Western ones has led to a standstill of the economy. Any period of understanding has led to a peacefulness and expansion: it was the case of the roman empire which ensured an era of equilibrium and progress. Today, fast transportation links (such as ground, sea and air transportation on one hand, and distribution grids for power, gas, fuel oil, telephone, etc. on the other hand) make the regional economic development easier. This forces each country to think in terms of assessing, as well as mastering and fulfilling its future energy needs. It also necessitates permanent talks. This workshop precisely aims at exchanging views on the Mediterranean energy needs for the fifty years to come.

  15. Compatibility of different measurement techniques of global solar radiation and application for long-term observations at Izaña Observatory

    Delia García, Rosa; Cuevas, Emilio; García, Omaira Elena; Ramos, Ramón; Romero-Campos, Pedro Miguel; de Ory, Fernado; Cachorro, Victoria Eugenia; de Frutos, Angel

    2017-03-01

    long-term global solar radiation series (1977-2015) at Izaña.

  16. Financing long term liabilities

    Noviello, Luigi

    2003-01-01

    In the '80 even if there were no precise law disposition in this specific matter, Enel has created a fund for the plants decommissioning and a fund for the irradiated fuel management. A setting aside pluri-annual plan has been defined. Cumulated funds transferred to the Sogin at the date of its constitution amount to about 1500 MLD ITL (750 M Euro). This amount was adequate to complete decommissioning activities within the Safe Store strategy. Following the separation of Sogin from Enel, a funding mechanism has been defined to provide resources for additional costs deriving from the different economic conditions (new discount rate and taxes), from the management costs for the new company, and from the change in strategy (from Safe Store to DECON). A Decree of the Ministry of the Industry, issued on 26 January 2000, states that the above mentioned extra costs for Sogin shall be financed on a levy on the price of the sold kWh. Every year Sogin shall present the program of future activities, with associated costs: on this basis, the national Authority for Electric energy and Gas (the national body which defines tariff policy) shall re-evaluate the global amount to be granted to Sogin and the levy on the price of the kWh due to Sogin for next three years. The re-evaluation will take into account economic efficiency criteria. For the period 2002- 2004 the Authority has defined a global amount of about 362 M euros to be granted to Sogin, corresponding to ∼0,04 cents of Euro per kWh. The same procedure is foreseen by the Decree in order to finance Sogin for additional costs related to the dismantling of nuclear installations now property of ENEA. In this context, a Consortium between ENEA and Sogin has been established. The Authority for the period 2002-2004 has defined a global amount of about 106 M euros to be granted to the Consortium, corresponding to ∼0,015 cents of Euro per kWh. (author)

  17. Introduction: Long term prediction

    Beranger, G.

    2003-01-01

    Making a decision upon the right choice of a material appropriate to a given application should be based on taking into account several parameters as follows: cost, standards, regulations, safety, recycling, chemical properties, supplying, transformation, forming, assembly, mechanical and physical properties as well as the behaviour in practical conditions. Data taken from a private communication (J.H.Davidson) are reproduced presenting the life time range of materials from a couple of minutes to half a million hours corresponding to applications from missile technology up to high-temperature nuclear reactors or steam turbines. In the case of deep storage of nuclear waste the time required is completely different from these values since we have to ensure the integrity of the storage system for several thousand years. The vitrified nuclear wastes should be stored in metallic canisters made of iron and carbon steels, stainless steels, copper and copper alloys, nickel alloys or titanium alloys. Some of these materials are passivating metals, i.e. they develop a thin protective film, 2 or 3 nm thick - the so-called passive films. These films prevent general corrosion of the metal in a large range of chemical condition of the environment. In some specific condition, localized corrosion such as the phenomenon of pitting, occurs. Consequently, it is absolutely necessary to determine these chemical condition and their stability in time to understand the behavior of a given material. In other words the corrosion system is constituted by the complex material/surface/medium. For high level nuclear wastes the main features for resolving problem are concerned with: geological disposal; deep storage in clay; waste metallic canister; backfill mixture (clay-gypsum) or concrete; long term behavior; data needed for modelling and for predicting; choice of appropriate solution among several metallic candidates. The analysis of the complex material/surface/medium is of great importance

  18. Long-Term Symbolic Learning

    Kennedy, William G; Trafton, J. G

    2007-01-01

    What are the characteristics of long-term learning? We investigated the characteristics of long-term, symbolic learning using the Soar and ACT-R cognitive architectures running cognitive models of two simple tasks...

  19. Stability issues of high-energy resolution diode type CdTe nuclear radiation detectors in a long-term operation

    Niraula, M; Aoki, T; Tomita, Y; Hatanaka, Y

    2002-01-01

    High-energy resolution diode type CdTe detectors were fabricated by growing an n-type epitaxial layer on high resistivity p-like crystal wafers, and their stability issues during a long-term operation were studied. Room temperature stability of the detectors was not good at low operating biases of around 200 V. However, it could be improved significantly by operating them at higher biases under full depletion conditions. On the other hand, detectors exhibited excellent stability by cooling them slightly below room temperature down to 0 deg. C. The effect of this low level of cooling on detector stability was found to be more significant than that of applying high biases at room temperature. By using the detector type presented here, stable operation could be obtained at moderate operating voltages of around 400 V and with a modest degree of cooling.

  20. Energy savings by reduced mixing in aeration tanks: results from a full scale investigation and long term implementation at Avedoere wastewater treatment plant.

    Sharma, A K; Guildal, T; Thomsen, H R; Jacobsen, B N

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this project was to investigate the potential of reducing number of mixers in the biological treatment process and thereby achieve energy and economical savings and contribute to cleaner environment. The project was carried out at Avedoere wastewater treatment plant and a full scale investigation was conducted to study the effect of reduced mixing on flow velocity, suspended solid sedimentation, concentration gradients of oxygen and SS with depth and treatment efficiency. The only negative effect observed was on flow velocity; however the velocity was above the critical velocity. The plant has been operating with 50% of its designed number of mixers since September 2007 and long term results also confirm that reduced mixing did not have any negative effect on treatment efficiency. The estimated yearly electricity saving is 0.75 GWh/year.

  1. Using long-term ecosystem service and biodiversity data to study the impacts and adaptation options in response to climate change: insights from the global ILTER sites network

    Vihervaara, P.; D'Amato, D.; Forsius, M.; Angelstam, P.; Baessler, C.; Balvanera, P.; Boldgiv, B.; Bourgeron, P.; Dick, J.; Kanka, R.; Klotz, S.; Maass, M.; Melecis, V.; Petřík, Petr; Shibata, H.; Tang, J.; Thompson, J.; Zacharias, S.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 5, č. 1 (2013), s. 53-66 ISSN 1877-3435 R&D Projects: GA MŠk 7AMB12SK156 Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : climate change * long-term ecological monitoring * prmanen research plot Subject RIV: EF - Botanics Impact factor: 2.758, year: 2013

  2. LONG TERM COLLECTIONS

    STAFF ASSOCIATION

    2010-01-01

    ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The Long-Term Collections (CLT) committee would like to warmly thank its faithful donors who, year after year, support our actions all over the world. Without you, all this would not be possible. We would like to thank, in particular, the CERN Firemen’s Association who donated 5000 CHF in the spring thanks to the sale of their traditional calendar, and the generosity of the CERN community. A huge thank you to the firemen for their devotion to our cause. And thank you to all those who have opened their door, their heart, and their purses! Similarly, we warmly thank the CERN Yoga Club once again for its wonderful donation of 2000 CHF we recently received. We would also like to tell you that all our projects are running well. Just to remind you, we are currently supporting the activities of the «Réflexe-Partage» Association in Mali; the training centre of «Education et Développement» in Abomey, Benin; and the orphanage and ...

  3. Early decrease in dietary protein:energy ratio by fat addition and ontogenetic changes in muscle growth mechanisms of rainbow trout: short- and long-term effects.

    Alami-Durante, Hélène; Cluzeaud, Marianne; Duval, Carine; Maunas, Patrick; Girod-David, Virginia; Médale, Françoise

    2014-09-14

    As the understanding of the nutritional regulation of muscle growth mechanisms in fish is fragmentary, the present study aimed to (1) characterise ontogenetic changes in muscle growth-related genes in parallel to changes in muscle cellularity; (2) determine whether an early decrease in dietary protein:energy ratio by fat addition affects the muscle growth mechanisms of rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) alevins; and (3) determine whether this early feeding of a high-fat (HF) diet to alevins had a long-term effect on muscle growth processes in juveniles fed a commercial diet. Developmental regulation of hyperplasia and hypertrophy was evidenced at the molecular (expression of myogenic regulatory factors, proliferating cell nuclear antigen and myosin heavy chains (MHC)) and cellular (number and diameter of white muscle fibres) levels. An early decrease in dietary protein:energy ratio by fat addition stimulated the body growth of alevins but led to a fatty phenotype, with accumulation of lipids in the anterior part, and less caudal muscle when compared at similar body weights, due to a decrease in both the white muscle hyperplasia and maximum hypertrophy of white muscle fibres. These HF diet-induced cellular changes were preceded by a very rapid down-regulation of the expression of fast-MHC. The present study also demonstrated that early dietary composition had a long-term effect on the subsequent muscle growth processes of juveniles fed a commercial diet for 3 months. When compared at similar body weights, initially HF diet-fed juveniles indeed had a lower mean diameter of white muscle fibres, a smaller number of large white muscle fibres, and lower expression levels of MyoD1 and myogenin. These findings demonstrated the strong effect of early feed composition on the muscle growth mechanisms of trout alevins and juveniles.

  4. Energy and ethics. Ethical aspects of a future global power generation; Energie und Ethik. Ethische Aspekte zukuenftiger globaler Stromerzeugung

    Gethmann, C.F. [Duisburg-Essen Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Philosophie; Europaeische Akademie Bad Neuenahr-Ahrweiler GmbH, Essen (Germany)

    2008-07-01

    The article deals with ethical questions regarding a future global energy supply by considering the normative aspects of economic efficiency, long-term liabilities, environmental sustainability, social acceptability and distributive equity. Regarding the ethical issues dealt with in the debate on the global energy supply, in particular two postulates arise: Both an improvement in knowledge and an improvement in the categories and procedures of ethical reflection are required. (orig.)

  5. Comparison of Arundo donax L. and Miscanthus x giganteus in a long-term field experiment in Central Italy: Analysis of productive characteristics and energy balance

    Angelini, Luciana G.; Ceccarini, Lucia; Nassi o Di Nasso, Nicoletta; Bonari, Enrico

    2009-01-01

    Miscanthus x giganteus (miscanthus) and Arundo donax L. (giant reed) are two perennial crops which have been received particular attention during the last decade as bioenergy crops. The main aim of the present study was to compare the above-ground biomass production and the energy balance of these perennial rhizomatous grasses in a long-term field experiment. The crops were cultivated from 1992 to 2003 in the temperate climate of Central Italy with 20,000 plants ha -1 , 100-100-100 kg N, P 2 O 5 , K 2 O per hectare, and without irrigation supply. For each year of trial, biomass was harvested in autumn to estimate biometric characteristics and productive parameters. Besides, energy analysis of biomass production was carried out determining energy output, energy input, energy efficiency (output/input) and net energy yield (output-input). Results showed high above-ground biomass yields over a period of 10 years for both species, with better productive performances in giant reed than in miscanthus (37.7 t DM ha -1 year -1 vs 28.7 t DM ha -1 year -1 averaged from 2 to 12 years of growth). Such high yields resulted positively correlated to number of stalks (miscanthus), plant height and stalk diameter (giant reed). Moreover, these perennial species are characterised by a favourable energy balance with a net energy yield of 467 and 637 GJ ha -1 (1-12 year mean) for miscanthus and giant reed respectively. With such characteristics, both grasses could be proposed as biomass energy crops in Southern Europe with a significant and environmentally compatible contribution to energy needs

  6. Comparison of Arundo donax L. and Miscanthus x giganteus in a long-term field experiment in Central Italy: Analysis of productive characteristics and energy balance

    Angelini, Luciana G.; Ceccarini, Lucia; Nassi o Di Nasso, Nicoletta [University of Pisa, Dipartimento di Agronomia e Gestione dell' Agroecosistema, Via S. Michele degli Scalzi 2, 56100 Pisa (Italy); Bonari, Enrico [Scuola Superiore Sant' Anna, Piazza Martiri della Liberta, 33, 56100 Pisa (Italy)

    2009-04-15

    Miscanthus x giganteus (miscanthus) and Arundo donax L. (giant reed) are two perennial crops which have been received particular attention during the last decade as bioenergy crops. The main aim of the present study was to compare the above-ground biomass production and the energy balance of these perennial rhizomatous grasses in a long-term field experiment. The crops were cultivated from 1992 to 2003 in the temperate climate of Central Italy with 20,000 plants ha{sup -1}, 100-100-100 kg N, P{sub 2}O{sub 5}, K{sub 2}O per hectare, and without irrigation supply. For each year of trial, biomass was harvested in autumn to estimate biometric characteristics and productive parameters. Besides, energy analysis of biomass production was carried out determining energy output, energy input, energy efficiency (output/input) and net energy yield (output-input). Results showed high above-ground biomass yields over a period of 10 years for both species, with better productive performances in giant reed than in miscanthus (37.7 t DM ha{sup -1} year{sup -1}vs 28.7 t DM ha{sup -1} year{sup -1} averaged from 2 to 12 years of growth). Such high yields resulted positively correlated to number of stalks (miscanthus), plant height and stalk diameter (giant reed). Moreover, these perennial species are characterised by a favourable energy balance with a net energy yield of 467 and 637 GJ ha{sup -1} (1-12 year mean) for miscanthus and giant reed respectively. With such characteristics, both grasses could be proposed as biomass energy crops in Southern Europe with a significant and environmentally compatible contribution to energy needs. (author)

  7. Long-term outlook of energy demand and supply in Japan. Estimation of energy demand and supply for 'Nuclear Energy Vision 2100' of JAEA

    Tatematsu, Kenji; Kawasaki, Hirotsugu; Nemoto, Masahiro; Murakami, Masakazu

    2009-06-01

    In this study, we showed an energy demand and supply scenario toward the year 2100 in Japan, which underlies JAEA's 'Nuclear Energy Vision 2100' published in October 2008. This energy demand and supply scenario aimed at the coexistence of the reduction of the carbon dioxide emission and the energy security through reduction of the fossil fuel usage, positive electrification and the nuclear energy usage. We reduced the ratio of the fossil fuel in the primary energy supply to about 1/3 and extend the share of renewable and nuclear energy to 70% from current 15%. As a result, the carbon dioxide emission was reduced to current 10%, and it developed that the half was the contribution of the nuclear energy. (author)

  8. Projection of opportunities for a refinery in a global long-term scenario; Projecao de oportunidades para uma refinaria em cenario mundial de longo prazo

    Lucena, Sergio Cunha de; Perisse, Juarez Barbosa; Farah, Marco Antonio; Faria, Marcia Dardari Castanheira [Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PETROBRAS), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Paredes, Marcio Luis Lyra [Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (UERJ), RJ (Brazil). Inst. de Quimica

    2012-07-01

    The outlook for 2050 pointed out by companies associated with research into energy on the globe indicate that global energy production still fairly representative in oil. In the future the relative contribution related to the consumption of oil in world energy matrix reduces, however increases in absolute values. That is, the oil market through its derivatives, is still the focus of great opportunities. These business opportunities will be as close as the flexibility of production derived from a particular refinery permits. Moreover, production flexibility is associated to investment costs. This paper focuses on the evaluation of different configurations of an oil refinery and shows that adding complexity to a refining scheme should not always be regarded as the best strategic path. (author)

  9. The use of long term agreements to improve energy efficiency in the industrial sector: Overview of the European experiences and proposal for a common framework

    Bertoldi, P.

    1999-01-01

    In the European Union efficiency improvements in the industrial sector are regarded as a key element of Member States' strategies to meet their Kyoto target. Besides the traditional policy instruments, such as fiscal and financial aids, minimum efficiency standards, R and D and technology programs, there is an increasing interest by both public authorities and industry for voluntary approaches to improve industrial energy efficiency. In the European context the term voluntary approach is often used to describe a wide range of industry actions including, inter alia: industry covenants, negotiated agreements, long term agreements, self regulations, codes of conduct, benchmarking and monitoring schemes. These voluntary approaches differ in relation to their form, legal status, provisions and enforceability. The paper provides an up-to-date overview of the present status of the different voluntary approaches for the industrial sector in several Member States (the Netherlands, Sweden, Germany, Denmark, Finland, Ireland, and the United Kingdom). The paper will focus on the particular type of voluntary approach implemented in the Netherlands and commonly called Long Term Agreements (LTA). The paper analyses the opportunities and advantages for creating a common EU framework for the conclusion and implementation of LTAs, based on the successful Dutch model. In doing so, the paper intends also to contribute to the approximation of the LTA's essential elements throughout the Community in order to reduce possible distortions of the internal market and of the competitive position of national industries, thus enlarging the acceptability of this instrument by public authorities and industry. For some industrial sectors, which are quite homogeneous throughout the Community and represent a limited number of companies, the paper analyses the advantages of having European LTAs and recommends their implementation. The paper presents the achievable results at EU level in terms of

  10. Predicting successful long-term weight loss from short-term weight-loss outcomes: new insights from a dynamic energy balance model (the POUNDS Lost study).

    Thomas, Diana M; Ivanescu, Andrada E; Martin, Corby K; Heymsfield, Steven B; Marshall, Kaitlyn; Bodrato, Victoria E; Williamson, Donald A; Anton, Stephen D; Sacks, Frank M; Ryan, Donna; Bray, George A

    2015-03-01

    Currently, early weight-loss predictions of long-term weight-loss success rely on fixed percent-weight-loss thresholds. The objective was to develop thresholds during the first 3 mo of intervention that include the influence of age, sex, baseline weight, percent weight loss, and deviations from expected weight to predict whether a participant is likely to lose 5% or more body weight by year 1. Data consisting of month 1, 2, 3, and 12 treatment weights were obtained from the 2-y Preventing Obesity Using Novel Dietary Strategies (POUNDS Lost) intervention. Logistic regression models that included covariates of age, height, sex, baseline weight, target energy intake, percent weight loss, and deviation of actual weight from expected were developed for months 1, 2, and 3 that predicted the probability of losing model. The AUC statistic quantified the ROC curve's capacity to classify participants likely to lose models yielding the highest AUC were retained as optimal. For comparison with current practice, ROC curves relying solely on percent weight loss were also calculated. Optimal models for months 1, 2, and 3 yielded ROC curves with AUCs of 0.68 (95% CI: 0.63, 0.74), 0.75 (95% CI: 0.71, 0.81), and 0.79 (95% CI: 0.74, 0.84), respectively. Percent weight loss alone was not better at identifying true positives than random chance (AUC ≤0.50). The newly derived models provide a personalized prediction of long-term success from early weight-loss variables. The predictions improve on existing fixed percent-weight-loss thresholds. Future research is needed to explore model application for informing treatment approaches during early intervention. © 2015 American Society for Nutrition.

  11. Energy and global environment

    Fyfe, W.S.; Powell, M.A.

    1991-01-01

    At present about 90% of the world's energy consumption is met by the fossil carbon fuel used in the form of coal, oil and natural gas. This results into release of vast amounts of waste gas CO 2 into the atmosphere posing a threat to the global environment. Moreover this energy source is not sustainable (renewable) and its use amounts to spending Earth's capital resources. The options to this energy source are biomass energy, hydro power, solar energy, geothermal energy and nuclear energy. The potentials, limitations, geological impact and environmental dangers, if any, of these sources are discussed in brief. Energy conservation through energy efficient systems is also one more option. Problems and potential for change to sustainable energy systems with respect to India and Canada are examined. Finally it is pointed out that the ultimate solution to the world's energy problem lies in population control and population reduction. This will make possible for the world to have a sustainable energy system primarily based on solar energy. (M.G.B.). 15 refs

  12. Southern hemisphere observations of a long-term decrease in F region altitude and thermospheric wind providing possible evidence for global thermospheric cooling

    Jarvis, M. J.; Jenkins, B.; Rodgers, G. A.

    1998-09-01

    F region peak heights, derived from ionospheric scaled parameters through 38-year data series from both Argentine Islands (65°S, 64°W) and Port Stanley (52°S, 58°W) have been analyzed for signatures of secular change. Long-term changes in altitude, which vary with month and time of day, were found at both sites. The results can be interpreted either as a constant decrease in altitude combined with a decreasing thermospheric wind effect or as a constant decrease in altitude which is altitude-dependent. Both interpretations leave inconsistencies when the results from the two sites are compared. The estimated long-term decrease in altitude is of a similar order of magnitude to that which has been predicted to result in the thermosphere from anthropogenic change related to greenhouse gases. Other possibilities should not, however, be ruled out.

  13. Choice evaluation of power supply composition using the mapping method of the long-term energy demand-and-supply scenario

    Tatematsu, Kenji

    2013-03-01

    Long-term energy demand-and-supply were analyzed for our country using the MARKAL model, supposing six kinds of energy demand-and-supply scenarios where different installed capacity of nuclear power generation and the emission standard of carbon-dioxide were employed. It was shown that even when nuclear power generation was not used, the carbon-dioxide emissions in the whole country and a power generation sector are reducible by 37% and 47% in 2050 from the 1990 level, respectively. However, when nuclear power generation was phase-out and renewable energy and natural gas were substituted, it was found that an average power generating cost was higher than the case where use of nuclear or coal was continued, 3.7 yen/kWh or more. Moreover, in the case where immediate cessation of the nuclear power generation was carried out, it was also shown that a current average power generating cost rose by 4.4 yen/kWh. In order to evaluate and visualize the influence of power supply composition change on both the average power generating cost and the carbon-dioxide emissions, a new mapping method was proposed where diversity of an energy source, the carbon-dioxide emissions, and the average power generating cost were used as indexes. Based on the result of model analysis, when nuclear power generation was substituted with renewable energy, natural gas, or coal, oligopoly of an energy source was shown to increase sharply by abolition of nuclear power generation. These results showed that by continuing use of the nuclear power generation with a fixed scale, less carbon-dioxide emissions, avoiding oligopolization of an energy source and suppressing the steep rise of an average power generating cost were possible. (author)

  14. What do near-term observations tell us about long-term developments in greenhouse gas emissions? A letter

    Vuuren, van D.P.; Edmonds, J.; Smith, S.J.; Calvin, K.V.; Karas, J.; Kainuma, M.; Nakicenovic, N.; Riahi, K.; Ruijven, B.J.; Swart, R.J.; Thomson, A.

    2010-01-01

    Long-term scenarios developed by integrated assessment models are used in climate research to provide an indication of plausible long-term emissions of greenhouse gases and other radiatively active substances based on developments in the global energy system, land-use and the emissions associated

  15. Improving long-term operation of power sources in off-grid hybrid systems based on renewable energy, hydrogen and battery

    García, Pablo; Torreglosa, Juan P.; Fernández, Luis M.; Jurado, Francisco

    2014-11-01

    This paper presents two novel hourly energy supervisory controls (ESC) for improving long-term operation of off-grid hybrid systems (HS) integrating renewable energy sources (wind turbine and photovoltaic solar panels), hydrogen system (fuel cell, hydrogen tank and electrolyzer) and battery. The first ESC tries to improve the power supplied by the HS and the power stored in the battery and/or in the hydrogen tank, whereas the second one tries to minimize the number of needed elements (batteries, fuel cells and electrolyzers) throughout the expected life of the HS (25 years). Moreover, in both ESC, the battery state-of-charge (SOC) and the hydrogen tank level are controlled and maintained between optimum operating margins. Finally, a comparative study between the controls is carried out by models of the commercially available components used in the HS under study in this work. These ESC are also compared with a third ESC, already published by the authors, and based on reducing the utilization costs of the energy storage devices. The comparative study proves the right performance of the ESC and their differences.

  16. Effect of long-term (2 years) exposure of mouse brains to global system for mobile communication (GSM) radiofrequency fields on astrocytic immunoreactivity.

    Court-Kowalski, Stefan; Finnie, John W; Manavis, Jim; Blumbergs, Peter C; Helps, Stephen C; Vink, Robert

    2015-04-01

    This study was designed to determine whether long-term (2 years) brain exposure to mobile telephone radiofrequency (RF) fields produces any astrocytic activation as these glia react to a wide range of neural perturbations by astrogliosis. Using a purpose-designed exposure system at 900 MHz, mice were given a single, far-field whole body exposure at a specific absorption rate of 4 W/kg on five successive days per week for 104 weeks. Control mice were sham-exposed or freely mobile in a cage to control any stress caused by immobilization in the exposure module. Brains were perfusion-fixed with 4% paraformaldehyde and three coronal levels immunostained for glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP). These brain slices were then examined by light microscopy and the amount of this immunomarker quantified using a color deconvolution method. There was no change in astrocytic GFAP immunostaining in brains after long-term exposure to mobile telephony microwaves compared to control (sham-exposed or freely moving caged mice). It was concluded that long-term (2 years) exposure of murine brains to mobile telephone RF fields did not produce any astrocytic reaction (astrogliosis) detectable by GFAP immunostaining. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  17. Fiscal 2000 survey report. Survey of long-term energy technology strategy and the like (Survey of research management technique to contribute to formulation of long-term energy strategy); 2000 nendo choki energy gijutsu senryaku ni kansuru chosa hokokusho. Sangyo gijutsu senryaku sakutei kiban chosa (choki energy senryaku sakutei nado ni kansuru kenkyu kanri shuho no chosa)

    NONE

    2001-03-01

    For the purpose of acquiring research management related basic materials necessary in the study of long-term energy strategy, a survey is conducted of the history, theory, and techniques of research management, the state of its utilization, and the products. The results of the survey are compiled into an introduction, itemized discussion, and materials. In the introduction, the purpose and basics of research management are discussed and confirmed. Taken up in the itemized discussion are an item (1) on research management relating to the selection of themes for research and development, which discusses the formulation of research and development strategy, selection of themes for research and development, formulation of plans for them, and a theme selection assisting system, an item (2) on research management relating to the management of research implementation, which discusses the management of implementation of research and development, interim assessment, and an implementation management assisting system, and an item (3) on the studies of key points for implementation and of research management for NEDO (New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization) to practice. As for the materials, they comprise commentaries on theories and techniques, an ex post facto assessment system and instances of assessment, list of persons related to research management, and commentaries on reference materials. (NEDO)

  18. Rapid fabrication of superhydrophobic Al/Fe{sub 2}O{sub 3} nanothermite film with excellent energy-release characteristics and long-term storage stability

    Ke, Xiang; Zhou, Xiang, E-mail: zhouxiang@njust.edu.cn; Hao, Gaozi; Xiao, Lei; Liu, Jie; Jiang, Wei, E-mail: superfine_jw@126.com

    2017-06-15

    Highlights: • Superhydrophobic Al/Fe{sub 2}O{sub 3} nanothermite film is prepared by combining electrophoretic deposition and surface modification technologies. • The deposition system and kinetics of electrophoretic deposition process are investigated to optimize parameters to obtain smooth films. • Energy-release characteristics of superhydrophobic films are significantly improved for both fresh and aged samples. • Superhydrophobic films exhibit excellent long-time storage stability both in natural and accelerated aging test. • A preignition reaction is found to enhance the energy-release characteristics of superhydrophobic nanothermite film. - Abstract: One of the challenges for the application of energetic materials is their energy-retaining capabilities after long-term storage. In this study, we report a facile method to fabricate superhydrophobic Al/Fe{sub 2}O{sub 3} nanothermite film by combining electrophoretic deposition and surface modification technologies. Different concentrations of dispersion solvents and additives are investigated to optimize the deposition parameters. Meanwhile, the dependence of deposition rates on nanoparticle concentrations is also studied. The surface morphology and chemical composition are characterized by field-emission scanning electron microscopy, X-ray diffraction, X-ray energy-dispersive spectroscopy, and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. A static contact angles as high as 156° shows the superhydrophobicity of the nanothermite film. Natural and accelerated aging tests are performed and the thermal behavior is analyzed. Thermal analysis shows that the surface modification contributes to significantly improved energy-release characteristics for both fresh and aged samples, which is supposed to be attributed to the preignition reaction between Al{sub 2}O{sub 3} shell and FAS-17. Superhydrophobic Al/Fe{sub 2}O{sub 3} nanothermite film exhibits excellent long-time storage stability with 83.4% of energy left in

  19. Global challenges in energy

    Dorian, James P.; Franssen, Herman T.; Simbeck, Dale R. MD

    2006-01-01

    Environmental and security concerns are stimulating global interest in hydrogen power, renewable energy, and advanced transportation technologies, but no significant movement away from oil and a carbon-based world economy is expected soon. Over the longer-term, however, a transition from fossil fuels to a non-carbon-based economy will likely occur, affecting the type of environment future generations may encounter. Key challenges will face the world's energy industry over the next few decades to ensure a smooth transition-challenges which will require government and industry solutions beginning as early as today. This paper identifies four critical challenges in energy and the choices which will have to be made on how best to confront growing pollution caused by fossil fuels and how to facilitate an eventual revolutionary-like transition to a non-carbon-based global economy

  20. Long-term nuclear knowledge management (NKM) of innovative nuclear energy systems (INES). A case study of the Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (JAERI)

    Yanagisawa, Kazuaki; Bezdek, Roger H.; Sawada, Tetsuo

    2008-01-01

    Within JAERI, funds invested in a 45-year study of LWR totaled 4.2b$ for research and 3.4b$ (34,718 man years) for personnel. The benefits to taxpayers from this JAERI work were estimated to be about 6.3b$ , resulting in a favorable cost-benefit ratio of 1.5 (6.3/4.2). JAERI is a national research institute and this figure may be regarded as sufficiently high, and many high risk and complex tasks were completed successfully. Funds invested in the 32-year study of HTGR were 1.5b$ for R and D and 0.3b$ (2966 man years) for personnel. Commercialized HTGR will result in a cost reduction of electricity during power generation. Retail cost is 0.36b$/year and the share of JAERI (MCP) is 0.018b$/year. Funds invested in the 32-year study of FR were 5.4b$ for R and D and 0.6b$ (6331 man years) for personnel. Estimate is that after commercialization in 2050, a FR will generate revenue from electricity as high as 1687b$ during the period 2050-2100, or 34b$/year - which is greater than that of LWR. However, there is substantial uncertainty in these estimates. To achieve long-term INES, it is necessary to develop the sustainable scenarios and the long-term robust NKM, as shown in the present study. (author)

  1. Long Term Financing of Infrastructure

    Sinha, Sidharth

    2014-01-01

    Infrastructure projects, given their long life, require long term financing. The main sources of long term financings are insurance and pension funds who seek long term investments with low credit risk. However, in India household financial savings are mainly invested in bank deposits. Insurance and pension funds account for only a small percentage of household financial savings. In addition most infrastructure projects do not qualify for investment by insurance and pension funds because of t...

  2. Energy and globalization

    Birjandi, Hossein Saremi

    Before the Industrial Revolution, nations required no energy fuel. People relied on human, animal, and wind and waterpower for energy need. Energy (oil) has resettled populations, elected officials in the free world, or changed the governments of the energy rich countries by force. Energy fueled wars, played the major factor in the might of those who have it or more importantly the abilities to acquire it by force. This dissertation researches the primacy of oil as an energy source from the time of oil's discovery to the present times. Between 1945 and 1960, the use of oil and gas doubled as power was generated for industries as steel, cement, metalworking and more important of all filling station hoses into automobiles gas tanks, thus energy swept people and societies quite literally off their feet. One in every six jobs in the industrial world hired by the giant automotive industries. The big five American oil companies spurred on by special tax benefit, these companies grew to gigantic sizes by taking out the best part of the nation's oil. Then, for greater growth, they leaped overseas and built up an immensely profitable system, in alliance with Anglo-Dutch Shell and British Petroleum, known as seven sisters. On the other side of the world, the energy producing nations form an alliance mainly to protect themselves from downward price fluctuations of oil. The struggle for survival in the global energy market forced those countries to get together and form OPEC, which is referred as an "oil cartel".

  3. Global energy and technology trends

    Rogner, Hans-Holger

    2008-01-01

    from the world's nuclear power reactors has continued to climb steadily, although the amount of new nuclear capacity coming on line each year has dropped substanially since its peak in 1980s. Looking ahead to nuclear power's prospects in the new century, four features stand out: (1) new nuclear power plants are not being built fast enough to maintain nuclear power's 16% share of global electricity generation; (2) current expansion, as well as near-term and long term growth prospects, are centered in Asia; (3) but 2002 also saw some signs of revitalized growth in Western Europe and North america, where growth has stagnated because of economics, market liberalization, and excess capacity; (4) long-term projections for nuclear power, particularly in the event of international agreement to significantly limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, are more bullish than near term trends. The key determining factor will be economics. In considering how to meet the world's growing need for enegy, it is important to recognize that each country is unique in itself and that every country uses a mix of energy supplies because: (1) different technologies are needed to meet diferent needs, e.g. for baseload power in contrast to peak power, or for meeting concentrated demand in megacities in contrast to that required by small users in remote areas; (2) evolution of the energy supply is uneven, and new technologies replace older ones in fits and starts and with overlaps; (3) different investors choose different technologies based on different requirements and perceptions about profitability and risk; (4) fast growing countries like China may need to expand all energy sources simultaneously just to keep up with growing demand. Moreover, the right mix for each country depends partly on how fast a country's energy demand is growing; on the country's energy resources and alternatives; on the available financing options and whether the investment is in a deregulated market that values rapid

  4. Radiocesium in migratory aquatic game birds using contaminated U.S. Department of Energy reactor-cooling reservoirs: A long-term perspective.

    Kennamer, Robert A; Oldenkamp, Ricki E; Leaphart, James C; King, Joshua D; Bryan, A Lawrence; Beasley, James C

    2017-05-01

    Low-level releases of radiocesium into former nuclear reactor cooling-reservoirs