WorldWideScience

Sample records for global land ice

  1. The global signature of post-1900 land ice wastage on vertical land motion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riva, Riccardo; Frederikse, Thomas; King, Matt; Marzeion, Ben; van den Broeke, Michiel

    2017-04-01

    The amount of ice stored on land has strongly declined during the 20th century, and melt rates showed a significant acceleration over the last two decades. Land ice wastage is well known to be one of the main drivers of global mean sea-level rise, as widely discussed in the literature and reflected in the last assessment report of the IPCC. A less obvious effect of melting land ice is the response of the solid earth to mass redistribution on its surface, which, in the first approximation, results in land uplift where the load reduces (e.g., close to the meltwater sources) and land subsidence where the load increases (e.g., under the rising oceans). This effect is nowadays well known within the cryospheric and sea level communities. However, what is often not realized is that the solid earth response is a truly global effect: a localized mass change does cause a large deformation signal in its proximity, but also causes a change of the position of every other point on the Earth's surface. The theory of the Earth's elastic response to changing surface loads forms the basis of the 'sea-level equation', which allows sea-level fingerprints of continental mass change to be computed. In this paper, we provide the first dedicated analysis of global vertical land motion driven by land ice wastage. By means of established techniques to compute the solid earth elastic response to surface load changes and the most recent datasets of glacier and ice sheet mass change, we show that land ice loss currently leads to vertical deformation rates of several tenths of mm per year at mid-latitudes, especially over the Northern Hemisphere where most sources are located. In combination with the improved accuracy of space geodetic techniques (e.g., Global Navigation Satellite Systems), this means that the effect of ice melt is non-negligible over a large part of the continents. In particular, we show how deformation rates have been strongly varying through the last century, which implies

  2. The impact of organochlorines cycling in the cryosphere on global distributions and fate – 2. Land ice and temporary snow cover

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hofmann, Lorenz; Stemmler, Irene; Lammel, Gerhard

    2012-01-01

    Global fate and transport of γ-HCH and DDT was studied using a global multicompartment chemistry-transport model, MPI-MCTM, with and without inclusion of land ice (in Antarctica and Greenland) or snow cover (dynamic). MPI-MCTM is based on coupled ocean and atmosphere general circulation models. After a decade of simulation 4.2% γ-HCH and 2.3% DDT are stored in land ice and snow. Neglection of land ice and snow in modelling would underestimate the total environmental residence time, τ ov , of γ-HCH and overestimate τ ov for DDT, both on the order of 1% and depending on actual compartmental distribution. Volatilisation of DDT from boreal, seasonally snow covered land is enhanced throughout the year, while volatilisation of γ-HCH is only enhanced during the snow-free season. Including land ice and snow cover in modelling matters in particular for the Arctic, where higher burdens are predicted to be stored. - Highlights: ► Land ice and snow hosts 2–4% of the global environmental burden of γ-HCH and DDT. ► Inclusion of land ice and snow cover matters for global environmental residence time. ► Including of land ice and snow cover matters in particular for the Arctic. - The inclusion of cycling in temporary snow cover and land ice in the model is found relevant for predicted POPs multicompartmental distribution and fate in the Arctic and on the global scale.

  3. The land-ice contribution to 21st-century dynamic sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, T.; Ridley, J.; Pardaens, A. K.; Hurkmans, R. T. W. L.; Payne, A. J.; Giesen, R. H.; Lowe, J. A.; Bamber, J. L.; Edwards, T. L.; Oerlemans, J.

    2014-06-01

    Climate change has the potential to influence global mean sea level through a number of processes including (but not limited to) thermal expansion of the oceans and enhanced land ice melt. In addition to their contribution to global mean sea level change, these two processes (among others) lead to local departures from the global mean sea level change, through a number of mechanisms including the effect on spatial variations in the change of water density and transport, usually termed dynamic sea level changes. In this study, we focus on the component of dynamic sea level change that might be given by additional freshwater inflow to the ocean under scenarios of 21st-century land-based ice melt. We present regional patterns of dynamic sea level change given by a global-coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model forced by spatially and temporally varying projected ice-melt fluxes from three sources: the Antarctic ice sheet, the Greenland Ice Sheet and small glaciers and ice caps. The largest ice melt flux we consider is equivalent to almost 0.7 m of global mean sea level rise over the 21st century. The temporal evolution of the dynamic sea level changes, in the presence of considerable variations in the ice melt flux, is also analysed. We find that the dynamic sea level change associated with the ice melt is small, with the largest changes occurring in the North Atlantic amounting to 3 cm above the global mean rise. Furthermore, the dynamic sea level change associated with the ice melt is similar regardless of whether the simulated ice fluxes are applied to a simulation with fixed CO2 or under a business-as-usual greenhouse gas warming scenario of increasing CO2.

  4. Monitoring Snow and Land Ice Using Satellite data in the GMES Project CryoLand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bippus, Gabriele; Nagler, Thomas

    2013-04-01

    The main objectives of the project "CryoLand - GMES Service Snow and Land Ice" are to develop, implement and validate services for snow, glaciers and lake and river ice products as a Downstream Service within the Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES) program of the European Commission. CryoLand exploits Earth Observation data from current optical and microwave sensors and of the upcoming GMES Sentinel satellite family. The project prepares also the basis for the cryospheric component of the GMES Land Monitoring services. The CryoLand project team consists of 10 partner organisations from Austria, Finland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Romania and is funded by the 7th Framework Program of the European Commission. The CryoLand baseline products for snow include fractional snow extent from optical satellite data, the extent of melting snow from SAR data, and coarse resolution snow water equivalent maps from passive microwave data. Experimental products include maps of snow surface wetness and temperature. The products range from large scale coverage at medium resolution to regional products with high resolution, in order to address a wide user community. Medium resolution optical data (e.g. MODIS, in the near future Sentinel-3) and SAR (ENVISAT ASAR, in the near future Sentinel-1) are the main sources of EO data for generating large scale products in near real time. For generation of regional products high resolution satellite data are used. Glacier products are based on high resolution optical (e.g. SPOT-5, in the near future Sentinel-2) and SAR (TerraSAR-X, in the near future Sentinel-1) data and include glacier outlines, mapping of glacier facies, glacier lakes and ice velocity. The glacier products are generated on users demand. Current test areas are located in the Alps, Norway, Greenland and the Himalayan Mountains. The lake and river ice products include ice extent and its temporal changes and snow extent on ice. The algorithms for these

  5. An integrated approach for estimating global glacio isostatic adjustment, land ice, hydrology and ocean mass trends within a complete coupled Earth system framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schumacher, M.; Bamber, J. L.; Martin, A.

    2016-12-01

    Future sea level rise (SLR) is one of the most serious consequences of climate change. Therefore, understanding the drivers of past sea level change is crucial for improving predictions. SLR integrates many Earth system components including oceans, land ice, terrestrial water storage, as well as solid Earth effects. Traditionally, each component have been tackled separately, which has often lead to inconsistencies between discipline-specific estimates of each part of the sea level budget. To address these issues, the European Research Council has funded a five year project aimed at producing a physically-based, data-driven solution for the complete coupled land-ocean-solid Earth system that is consistent with the full suite of observations, prior knowledge and fundamental geophysical constraints. The project is called "GlobalMass" and based at University of Bristol. Observed mass movement from the GRACE mission plus vertical land motion from a global network of permanent GPS stations will be utilized in a data-driven approach to estimate glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) without introducing any assumptions about the Earth structure or ice loading history. A Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) will be used as the framework to combine the satellite and in-situ observations alongside prior information that incorporates the physics of the coupled system such as conservation of mass and characteristic length scales of different processes in both space and time. The BHM is used to implement a simultaneous solution at a global scale. It will produce a consistent partitioning of the integrated SLR signal into its steric (thermal) and barystatic (mass) component for the satellite era. The latter component is induced by hydrological mass trends and melting of land ice. The BHM was developed and tested on Antarctica, where it has been used to separate surface, ice dynamic and GIA signals simultaneously. We illustrate the approach and concepts with examples from this test case

  6. Operational satellites and the global monitoring of snow and ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, John E.

    1991-01-01

    The altitudinal dependence of the global warming projected by global climate models is at least partially attributable to the albedo-temperature feedback involving snow and ice, which must be regarded as key variables in the monitoring for global change. Statistical analyses of data from IR and microwave sensors monitoring the areal coverage and extent of sea ice have led to mixed conclusions about recent trends of hemisphere sea ice coverage. Seasonal snow cover has been mapped for over 20 years by NOAA/NESDIS on the basis of imagery from a variety of satellite sensors. Multichannel passive microwave data show some promise for the routine monitoring of snow depth over unforested land areas.

  7. A New Global Mascon Solution Tuned for High-Latitude Ice Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luthcke, S. B.; Sabaka, T.; Rowlands, D. D> McCarthy, J. J.; Loomis, B.

    2011-01-01

    A new global mascon solution has been developed with I-arc-degree spatial and IO-day temporal sampling. The global mas cons are estimated from the reduction of nearly 8 years of GRACE K-band range-rate data. Temporal and anisotropic spatial constraints have been applied for land, ocean and ice regions. The solution construction and tuning is focused towards the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GIS and AIS) as well as the Gulf of Alaska mountain glaciers (GoA). Details of the solution development will be discussed, including the mascon parameter definitions, constraints, and the tuning of the constraint damping factor. Results will be presented, exploring the spatial and temporal variability of the ice sheets and GoA regions. A detailed error analysis will be discussed, including solution dependence on iteration, damping factor, forward modeling, and multitechnique comparisons. We also investigate the fundamental resolution of the solution and the spatial correlation of ice sheet inter-annual change. Finally, we discuss future improvements, including specific constraint application for the rest of the major land ice regions and improvements in solution regularization.

  8. Global warming: Sea ice and snow cover

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walsh, J.E.

    1993-01-01

    In spite of differences among global climate simulations under scenarios where atmospheric CO 2 is doubled, all models indicate at least some amplification of greenouse warming at the polar regions. Several decades of recent data on air temperature, sea ice, and snow cover of the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere are summarized to illustrate the general compatibility of recent variations in those parameters. Despite a data void over the Arctic Ocean, some noteworthy patterns emerge. Warming dominates in winter and spring, as projected by global climate models, with the warming strongest over subpolar land areas of Alaska, northwestern Canada, and northern Eurasia. A time-longitude summary of Arctic sea ice variations indicates that timescales of most anomalies range from several months to several years. Wintertime maxima of total sea ice extent contain no apparent secular trends. The statistical significance of trends in recent sea ice variations was evaluated by a Monte Carlo procedure, showing a statistically significant negative trend in the summer. Snow cover data over the 20-y period of record show a noticeable decrease of Arctic snow cover in the late 1980s. This is of potential climatic significance since the accompanying decrease of surface albedo leads to a rapid increase of solar heating. 21 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab

  9. Polarimetric SAR interferometry applied to land ice: modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dall, Jørgen; Papathanassiou, Konstantinos; Skriver, Henning

    2004-01-01

    This paper introduces a few simple scattering models intended for the application of polarimetric SAR interfer-ometry to land ice. The principal aim is to eliminate the penetration bias hampering ice sheet elevation maps generated with single-channel SAR interferometry. The polarimetric coherent...... scattering models are similar to the oriented-volume model and the random-volume-over-ground model used in vegetation studies, but the ice models are adapted to the different geometry of land ice. Also, due to compaction, land ice is not uniform; a fact that must be taken into account for large penetration...... depths. The validity of the scattering models is examined using L-band polarimetric interferometric SAR data acquired with the EMISAR system over an ice cap located in the percolation zone of the Greenland ice sheet. Radar reflectors were deployed on the ice surface prior to the data acquisition in order...

  10. Victoria Land, Ross Sea, and Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-01-01

    On December 19, 2001, MODIS acquired data that produced this image of Antarctica's Victoria Land, Ross Ice Shelf, and the Ross Sea. The coastline that runs up and down along the left side of the image denotes where Victoria Land (left) meets the Ross Ice Shelf (right). The Ross Ice Shelf is the world's largest floating body of ice, approximately the same size as France. Credit: Jacques Descloitres, MODIS Land Rapid Response Team, NASA/GSFC

  11. Global ice sheet modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hughes, T.J.; Fastook, J.L.

    1994-05-01

    The University of Maine conducted this study for Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate modeling task for site characterization of the potential nuclear waste respository site at Yucca Mountain, NV. The purpose of the study was to develop a global ice sheet dynamics model that will forecast the three-dimensional configuration of global ice sheets for specific climate change scenarios. The objective of the third (final) year of the work was to produce ice sheet data for glaciation scenarios covering the next 100,000 years. This was accomplished using both the map-plane and flowband solutions of our time-dependent, finite-element gridpoint model. The theory and equations used to develop the ice sheet models are presented. Three future scenarios were simulated by the model and results are discussed

  12. Antarctica, Greenland and Gulf of Alaska Land-Ice Evolution from an Iterated GRACE Global Mascon Solution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luthcke, Scott B.; Sabaka, T. J.; Loomis, B. D.; Arendt, A. A.; McCarthy, J. J.; Camp, J.

    2013-01-01

    We have determined the ice mass evolution of the Antarctica and Greenland ice sheets (AIS and GIS) and Gulf of Alaska (GOA) glaciers from a new GRACE global solution of equal-area surface mass concentration parcels (mascons) in equivalent height of water. The mascons were estimated directly from the reduction of the inter-satellite K-band range-rate (KBRR) observations, taking into account the full noise covariance, and formally iterating the solution. The new solution increases signal recovery while reducing the GRACE KBRR observation residuals. The mascons were estimated with 10 day and 1 arc degree equal-area sampling, applying anisotropic constraints. An ensemble empirical mode decomposition adaptive filter was applied to the mascon time series to compute annual mass balances. The details and causes of the spatial and temporal variability of the land-ice regions studied are discussed. The estimated mass trend over the total GIS, AIS and GOA glaciers for the time period 1 December 2003 to 1 December 2010 is -380 plus or minus 31 Gt a(exp -1), equivalent to -1.05 plus or minus 0.09 mma(exp -1) sea-level rise. Over the same time period we estimate the mass acceleration to be -41 plus or minus 27 Gt a(exp -2), equivalent to a 0.11 plus or minus 0.08 mm a(exp -2) rate of change in sea level. The trends and accelerations are dependent on significant seasonal and annual balance anomalies.

  13. The impact of organochlorines cycling in the cryosphere on their global distribution and fate – 1. Sea ice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guglielmo, Francesca; Stemmler, Irene; Lammel, Gerhard

    2012-01-01

    Global fate and transport of γ-HCH and DDT was studied using a global multicompartment chemistry-transport model, MPI-MCTM, with and without a dynamic sea ice compartment. The MPI-MCTM is based on coupled ocean and atmosphere general circulation models. Sea ice hosts 7–9% of the burden of the surface ocean. Without cycling in sea ice the geographic distributions are shifted from land to sea. This shift of burdens exceeds the sea ice burden by a factor of ≈8 for γ-HCH and by a factor of ≈15 for DDT. As regional scale seasonal sea ice melting may double surface ocean contamination, a neglect of cycling in sea ice (in an otherwise unchanged model climate) would underestimate ocean exposure in high latitudes. Furthermore, it would lead to overestimates of the residence times in ocean by 40% and 33% and of the total environmental residence times, τ overall , of γ-HCH and DDT by 1.6% and 0.6%, respectively. - Highlights: ► Sea ice hosts 7–9% of the burden of γ-HCH and DDT in the surface ocean. ► Without cycling in sea ice the distributions are shifted from land to sea. ► A neglect of cycling in sea ice would underestimate ocean exposure in high latitudes. ► Persistence of γ-HCH and DDT expected enhanced in climate without sea ice. - The inclusion of cycling in sea ice is found relevant for POPs fate and transport modelling on the global scale.

  14. Improved estimates of global sea level change from Ice Sheets, glaciers and land water storage using GRACE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velicogna, I.; Hsu, C. W.; Ciraci, E.; Sutterley, T. C.

    2015-12-01

    We use observations of time variable gravity from GRACE to estimate mass changes for the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets, the Glaciers and Ice Caps (GIC) and land water storage for the time period 2002-2015 and evaluate their total contribution to sea level. We calculate regional sea level changes from these present day mass fluxes using an improved scaling factor for the GRACE data that accounts for the spatial and temporal variability of the observed signal. We calculate a separate scaling factor for the annual and the long-term components of the GRACE signal. To estimate the contribution of the GIC, we use a least square mascon approach and we re-analyze recent inventories to optimize the distribution of mascons and recover the GRACE signal more accurately. We find that overall, Greenland controls 43% of the global trend in eustatic sea level rise, 16% for Antarctica and 29% for the GIC. The contribution from the GIC is dominated by the mass loss of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, followed by Alaska, Patagonia and the High Mountains of Asia. We report a marked increase in mass loss for the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. In Greenland, following the 2012 high summer melt, years 2013 and 2014 have slowed down the increase in mass loss, but our results will be updated with summer 2015 observations at the meeting. In Antarctica, the mass loss is still on the rise with increased contributions from the Amundsen Sea sector and surprisingly from the Wilkes Land sector of East Antarctica, including Victoria Land. Conversely, the Queen Maud Land sector experienced a large snowfall in 2009-2013 and has now resumed to a zero mass gain since 2013. We compare sea level changes from these GRACE derived mass fluxes after including the atmospheric and ocean loading signal with sea level change from satellite radar altimetry (AVISO) corrected for steric signal of the ocean using Argo measurements and find an excellent agreement in amplitude, phase and trend in these estimates

  15. Northern Alaskan land surface response to reduced Arctic sea ice extent

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Higgins, Matthew E. [University of Colorado, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, CO (United States); Cassano, John J. [University of Colorado, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2012-05-15

    With Arctic sea ice extent at near-record lows, an improved understanding of the relationship between sea ice and the land surface is warranted. We examine the land surface response to changing sea ice by first conducting a simulation using the Community Atmospheric Model version 3.1 with end of the twenty-first century sea ice extent. This future atmospheric response is then used to force the Weather and Research Forecasting Model version 3.1 to examine the terrestrial land surface response at high resolution over the North Slope of Alaska. Similar control simulations with twentieth century sea ice projections are also performed, and in both simulations only sea ice extent is altered. In the future sea ice extent experiment, atmospheric temperature increases significantly due to increases in latent and sensible heat flux, particularly in the winter season. Precipitation and snow pack increase significantly, and the increased snow pack contributes to warmer soil temperatures for most seasons by insulating the land surface. In the summer, however, soil temperatures are reduced due to increased albedo. Despite warmer near-surface atmospheric temperatures, it is found that spring melt is delayed throughout much of the North Slope due to the increased snow pack, and the growing season length is shortened. (orig.)

  16. A consistent data set of Antarctic ice sheet topography, cavity geometry, and global bathymetry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Timmermann

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Sub-ice shelf circulation and freezing/melting rates in ocean general circulation models depend critically on an accurate and consistent representation of cavity geometry. Existing global or pan-Antarctic topography data sets have turned out to contain various inconsistencies and inaccuracies. The goal of this work is to compile independent regional surveys and maps into a global data set. We use the S-2004 global 1-min bathymetry as the backbone and add an improved version of the BEDMAP topography (ALBMAP bedrock topography for an area that roughly coincides with the Antarctic continental shelf. The position of the merging line is individually chosen in different sectors in order to capture the best of both data sets. High-resolution gridded data for ice shelf topography and cavity geometry of the Amery, Fimbul, Filchner-Ronne, Larsen C and George VI Ice Shelves, and for Pine Island Glacier are carefully merged into the ambient ice and ocean topographies. Multibeam survey data for bathymetry in the former Larsen B cavity and the southeastern Bellingshausen Sea have been obtained from the data centers of Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI, British Antarctic Survey (BAS and Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO, gridded, and blended into the existing bathymetry map. The resulting global 1-min Refined Topography data set (RTopo-1 contains self-consistent maps for upper and lower ice surface heights, bedrock topography, and surface type (open ocean, grounded ice, floating ice, bare land surface. The data set is available in NetCDF format from the PANGAEA database at doi:10.1594/pangaea.741917.

  17. Global land use change, economic globalization, and the looming land scarcity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambin, Eric F; Meyfroidt, Patrick

    2011-03-01

    A central challenge for sustainability is how to preserve forest ecosystems and the services that they provide us while enhancing food production. This challenge for developing countries confronts the force of economic globalization, which seeks cropland that is shrinking in availability and triggers deforestation. Four mechanisms-the displacement, rebound, cascade, and remittance effects-that are amplified by economic globalization accelerate land conversion. A few developing countries have managed a land use transition over the recent decades that simultaneously increased their forest cover and agricultural production. These countries have relied on various mixes of agricultural intensification, land use zoning, forest protection, increased reliance on imported food and wood products, the creation of off-farm jobs, foreign capital investments, and remittances. Sound policies and innovations can therefore reconcile forest preservation with food production. Globalization can be harnessed to increase land use efficiency rather than leading to uncontrolled land use expansion. To do so, land systems should be understood and modeled as open systems with large flows of goods, people, and capital that connect local land use with global-scale factors.

  18. Global land use change, economic globalization, and the looming land scarcity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambin, Eric F.; Meyfroidt, Patrick

    2011-01-01

    A central challenge for sustainability is how to preserve forest ecosystems and the services that they provide us while enhancing food production. This challenge for developing countries confronts the force of economic globalization, which seeks cropland that is shrinking in availability and triggers deforestation. Four mechanisms—the displacement, rebound, cascade, and remittance effects—that are amplified by economic globalization accelerate land conversion. A few developing countries have managed a land use transition over the recent decades that simultaneously increased their forest cover and agricultural production. These countries have relied on various mixes of agricultural intensification, land use zoning, forest protection, increased reliance on imported food and wood products, the creation of off-farm jobs, foreign capital investments, and remittances. Sound policies and innovations can therefore reconcile forest preservation with food production. Globalization can be harnessed to increase land use efficiency rather than leading to uncontrolled land use expansion. To do so, land systems should be understood and modeled as open systems with large flows of goods, people, and capital that connect local land use with global-scale factors. PMID:21321211

  19. Improved regional sea-level estimates from Ice Sheets, Glaciers and land water storage using GRACE time series and other data

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Z.; Velicogna, I.; Hsu, C. W.; Rignot, E. J.; Mouginot, J.; Scheuchl, B.; Fettweis, X.; van den Broeke, M. R.

    2017-12-01

    Changes in ice sheets, glaciers and ice caps (GIC) and land water mass cause regional sea level variations that differ significantly from a uniform re-distribution of mass over the ocean, with a decrease in sea level compared to the global mean sea level contribution (GMSL) near the sources of mass added to the ocean and an increase up to 30% larger than the GMSL in the far field. The corresponding sea level fingerprints (SLF) are difficult to separate from ocean dynamics on short time and spatial scales but as ice melt continues, the SLF signal will become increasingly dominant in the pattern of regional sea level rise. It has been anticipated that it will be another few decades before the land ice SLF could be identified in the pattern of regional sea level rise. Here, we combine 40 years of observations of ice sheet mass balance for Antarctica (1975-present) and Greenland (1978-present), along with surface mass balance reconstructions of glacier and ice caps mass balance (GIC) from 1970s to present to determine the contribution to the SLF from melting land ice (MAR and RACMO). We compare the results with observations from GRACE for the time period 2002 to present for evaluation of our approach. Land hydrology is constrained by GRACE data for the period 2002-present and by the GLDAS-NOAH land hydrology model for the longer time period. Over the long time period, we find that the contribution from land ice dominates. We quantify the contribution to the total SLF from Greenland and Antarctica in various parts of the world over the past 40 years. More important, we compare the cumulative signal from SLF with tide gauge records around the world, corrected for earth dynamics, to determine whether the land ice SLF can be detected in that record. Early results will be reported at the meeting. This work was performed at UC Irvine and at Caltech's Jet Propulsion Laboratory under a contract with NASA's Cryospheric Science Program.

  20. Towards monitoring land-cover and land-use changes at a global scale: the global land survey 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutman, G.; Byrnes, Raymond A.; Masek, J.; Covington, S.; Justice, C.; Franks, S.; Headley, Rachel

    2008-01-01

    Land cover is a critical component of the Earth system, infl uencing land-atmosphere interactions, greenhouse gas fl uxes, ecosystem health, and availability of food, fi ber, and energy for human populations. The recent Integrated Global Observations of Land (IGOL) report calls for the generation of maps documenting global land cover at resolutions between 10m and 30m at least every fi ve years (Townshend et al., in press). Moreover, despite 35 years of Landsat observations, there has not been a unifi ed global analysis of land-cover trends nor has there been a global assessment of land-cover change at Landsat-like resolution. Since the 1990s, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) have supported development of data sets based on global Landsat observations (Tucker et al., 2004). These land survey data sets, usually referred to as GeoCover ™, provide global, orthorectifi ed, typically cloud-free Landsat imagery centered on the years 1975, 1990, and 2000, with a preference for leaf-on conditions. Collectively, these data sets provided a consistent set of observations to assess land-cover changes at a decadal scale. These data are freely available via the Internet from the USGS Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) (see http://earthexplorer.usgs.gov or http://glovis.usgs.gov). This has resulted in unprecedented downloads of data, which are widely used in scientifi c studies of land-cover change (e.g., Boone et al., 2007; Harris et al., 2005; Hilbert, 2006; Huang et al. 2007; Jantz et al., 2005, Kim et al., 2007; Leimgruber, 2005; Masek et al., 2006). NASA and USGS are continuing to support land-cover change research through the development of GLS2005 - an additional global Landsat assessment circa 20051 . Going beyond the earlier initiatives, this data set will establish a baseline for monitoring changes on a 5-year interval and will pave the way toward continuous global land

  1. Consistent estimate of ocean warming, land ice melt and sea level rise from Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blazquez, Alejandro; Meyssignac, Benoît; Lemoine, Jean Michel

    2016-04-01

    Based on the sea level budget closure approach, this study investigates the consistency of observed Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) estimates from satellite altimetry, observed Ocean Thermal Expansion (OTE) estimates from in-situ hydrographic data (based on Argo for depth above 2000m and oceanic cruises below) and GRACE observations of land water storage and land ice melt for the period January 2004 to December 2014. The consistency between these datasets is a key issue if we want to constrain missing contributions to sea level rise such as the deep ocean contribution. Numerous previous studies have addressed this question by summing up the different contributions to sea level rise and comparing it to satellite altimetry observations (see for example Llovel et al. 2015, Dieng et al. 2015). Here we propose a novel approach which consists in correcting GRACE solutions over the ocean (essentially corrections of stripes and leakage from ice caps) with mass observations deduced from the difference between satellite altimetry GMSL and in-situ hydrographic data OTE estimates. We check that the resulting GRACE corrected solutions are consistent with original GRACE estimates of the geoid spherical harmonic coefficients within error bars and we compare the resulting GRACE estimates of land water storage and land ice melt with independent results from the literature. This method provides a new mass redistribution from GRACE consistent with observations from Altimetry and OTE. We test the sensibility of this method to the deep ocean contribution and the GIA models and propose best estimates.

  2. Towards a global land subsidence map

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Erkens, G.; Sutanudjaja, E. H.

    2015-01-01

    Land subsidence is a global problem, but a global land subsidence map is not available yet. Such map is crucial to raise global awareness of land subsidence, as land subsidence causes extensive damage (probably in the order of billions of dollars annually). With the global land subsidence map

  3. Increased Land Use by Chukchi Sea Polar Bears in Relation to Changing Sea Ice Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rode, Karyn D; Wilson, Ryan R; Regehr, Eric V; St Martin, Michelle; Douglas, David C; Olson, Jay

    2015-01-01

    Recent observations suggest that polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are increasingly using land habitats in some parts of their range, where they have minimal access to their preferred prey, likely in response to loss of their sea ice habitat associated with climatic warming. We used location data from female polar bears fit with satellite radio collars to compare land use patterns in the Chukchi Sea between two periods (1986-1995 and 2008-2013) when substantial summer sea-ice loss occurred. In both time periods, polar bears predominantly occupied sea-ice, although land was used during the summer sea-ice retreat and during the winter for maternal denning. However, the proportion of bears on land for > 7 days between August and October increased between the two periods from 20.0% to 38.9%, and the average duration on land increased by 30 days. The majority of bears that used land in the summer and for denning came to Wrangel and Herald Islands (Russia), highlighting the importance of these northernmost land habitats to Chukchi Sea polar bears. Where bears summered and denned, and how long they spent there, was related to the timing and duration of sea ice retreat. Our results are consistent with other studies supporting increased land use as a common response of polar bears to sea-ice loss. Implications of increased land use for Chukchi Sea polar bears are unclear, because a recent study observed no change in body condition or reproductive indices between the two periods considered here. This result suggests that the ecology of this region may provide a degree of resilience to sea ice loss. However, projections of continued sea ice loss suggest that polar bears in the Chukchi Sea and other parts of the Arctic may increasingly use land habitats in the future, which has the potential to increase nutritional stress and human-polar bear interactions.

  4. Interaction of ice sheets and climate during the past 800 000 years

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stap, L. B.; Van De Wal, R. S W; De Boer, B.; Bintanja, R.; Lourens, L. J.

    2014-01-01

    During the Cenozoic, land ice and climate interacted on many different timescales. On long timescales, the effect of land ice on global climate and sea level is mainly set by large ice sheets in North America, Eurasia, Greenland and Antarctica. The climatic forcing of these ice sheets is largely

  5. Global Lake and River Ice Phenology Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Lake and River Ice Phenology Database contains freeze and thaw/breakup dates as well as other descriptive ice cover data for 865 lakes and rivers in the...

  6. Increased Land Use by Chukchi Sea Polar Bears in Relation to Changing Sea Ice Conditions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karyn D Rode

    Full Text Available Recent observations suggest that polar bears (Ursus maritimus are increasingly using land habitats in some parts of their range, where they have minimal access to their preferred prey, likely in response to loss of their sea ice habitat associated with climatic warming. We used location data from female polar bears fit with satellite radio collars to compare land use patterns in the Chukchi Sea between two periods (1986-1995 and 2008-2013 when substantial summer sea-ice loss occurred. In both time periods, polar bears predominantly occupied sea-ice, although land was used during the summer sea-ice retreat and during the winter for maternal denning. However, the proportion of bears on land for > 7 days between August and October increased between the two periods from 20.0% to 38.9%, and the average duration on land increased by 30 days. The majority of bears that used land in the summer and for denning came to Wrangel and Herald Islands (Russia, highlighting the importance of these northernmost land habitats to Chukchi Sea polar bears. Where bears summered and denned, and how long they spent there, was related to the timing and duration of sea ice retreat. Our results are consistent with other studies supporting increased land use as a common response of polar bears to sea-ice loss. Implications of increased land use for Chukchi Sea polar bears are unclear, because a recent study observed no change in body condition or reproductive indices between the two periods considered here. This result suggests that the ecology of this region may provide a degree of resilience to sea ice loss. However, projections of continued sea ice loss suggest that polar bears in the Chukchi Sea and other parts of the Arctic may increasingly use land habitats in the future, which has the potential to increase nutritional stress and human-polar bear interactions.

  7. Global glacier and ice sheet surface velocities derived from 31 years of Landsat imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gardner, A. S.; Scambos, T. A.; Fahnestock, M. A.

    2016-12-01

    Glaciers and ice sheets are contributing substantial volumes of water to the world's oceans due to enhanced melt resulting from changes in ocean and atmospheric conditions and respective feedbacks. Improving understanding of the processes leading to accelerated rates of ice loss is necessary for reducing uncertainties sea level projections. One key to doing this is to assemble and analyze long records of glacier change that characterize grounded ice response to changes in driving stress, buttressing, and basal conditions. As part of the NASA funded GO_LIVE project we exploit 31 years of Landsat imagery to construct detailed time histories of global glacier velocities. Early exploration of the dataset reveals the diversity of information to be gleaned: sudden tidewater glacier speedups in the Antarctic Peninsula, rifting of Antarctic ice shelves, high variability in velocities near glacier grounding lines, frequent surge activity in the mountainous regions of Alaska and High Mountain Asia, and the slowdown of land-terminating valley glaciers in Arctic Canada and elsewhere.

  8. Postglacial Rebound and Current Ice Loss Estimates from Space Geodesy: The New ICE-6G (VM5a) Global Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peltier, W. R.; Argus, D.; Drummond, R.; Moore, A. W.

    2012-12-01

    We compare, on a global basis, estimates of site velocity against predictions of the newly constructed postglacial rebound model ICE-6G (VM5a). This model is fit to observations of North American postglacial rebound thereby demonstrating that the ice sheet at last glacial maximum must have been, relative to ICE-5G,thinner in southern Manitoba, thinner near Yellowknife (northwest Territories), thicker in eastern and southern Quebec, and thicker along the British Columbia-Alberta border. The GPS based estimates of site velocity that we employ are more accurate than were previously available because they are based on GPS estimates of position as a function of time determined by incorporating satellite phase center variations [Desai et al. 2011]. These GPS estimates are constraining postglacial rebound in North America and Europe more tightly than ever before. In particular, given the high density of GPS sites in North America, and the fact that the velocity of the mass center (CM) of Earth is also more tightly constrained, the new model much more strongly constrains both the lateral extent of the proglacial forebulge and the rate at which this peripheral bulge (that was emplaced peripheral to the late Pleistocence Laurentia ice sheet) is presently collapsing. This fact proves to be important to the more accurate inference of the current rate of ice loss from both Greenland and Alaska based upon the time dependent gravity observations being provided by the GRACE satellite system. In West Antarctica we have also been able to significantly revise the previously prevalent ICE-5G deglaciation history so as to enable its predictions to be optimally consistent with GPS site velocities determined by connecting campaign WAGN measurements to those provided by observations from the permanent ANET sites. Ellsworth Land (south of the Antarctic peninsula), is observed to be rising at 6 ±3 mm/yr according to our latest analyses; the Ellsworth mountains themselves are observed to be

  9. Land use developmental trends in cadastral area Žabčice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petra Fukalová

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This article is focused on the land use development in the cadastral area Žabčice since the mid of the 20th century. Žabčice lies in South Moravia at a distance of less than 25 km south from Brno and its land area is 817 ha. This selected cadastre is part of University Agricultural Enterprise (UAE Žabčice area and has been chosen because of the relevance for the MUAF in Brno. Dominant activity in this cadastral area is agriculture. The land use was evaluated from 1950’s to the present time.According to availability of suitable map underlays three basic time profiles (1953, 1990 and 2007 were chosen. For evaluation of land use development following materials were used: archival aerial photographs, ortophotos, basic and cadastral maps, archival documents. Field survey of selected area was also necessary. Thirteen land use categories have been identified as an outcome of interpretation of maps. These categories were compared by methods of comparative measurement of areas. The area of particular land use categories in landscape with regard to land area of whole model area in hectares and further their percentage representation were found out. Data processing and all analyses were done in GIS environment (software ArcGIS 9.1.In 2007 (compared with 1953 forest area had increased by about 1 %, orchards by 2 %, vineyards by 12 % and the increase of built-up and other areas by 8 % was also evident. The area of following categories decreased: arable land by 21 %, TTP by 2 %, garden by 1 %. The most significant trend in the cadastral Žabčice is decrease of arable land area recorded during the whole period. Other trends are following: the increase of vineyard areas, smaller increase of the orchard area and increase of built-up and other areas. In the context of political and socio-economic factors, non-forest vegetation was ne­ga­ti­ve­ly marked. These changes correspond with changes in Czech Republic in the same time

  10. Mass loss of the Greenland Ice Sheet since the Little Ice Age, implications on sea level

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjeldsen, K. K.; Bjork, A. A.; Khan, Shfaqat Abbas

    The impact of mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) on 20th Century sea level rise (SLR) has long been subject to intense discussions. While globally distributed tide gauges suggest a global mean SLR of 15-20 cm, quantifying the separate components is of great concern - in particular...... for modeling sea level projections into the 21st Century. Estimates of the past GrIS contribution to SLR have been derived using a number of different approaches, e.g. surface mass balance (SMB) calculations combined with estimates of ice discharge found by in correlating SMB anomalies and calving rates. Here......-2010, NASA's Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) from 2003-2009, and NASA's Land, Vegetation, and Ice Sensor (LVIS) from 2010, to estimate mass loss throughout the 20th and early 21st Century. We present mass balance estimates of the GrIS since retreat commence from the maximum extent...

  11. Lifestyles and Global Land-use Change

    OpenAIRE

    Heilig, G.K.

    1995-01-01

    One of the most influential publications on land-use change is a small booklet, published by the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) and the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Programme (HDP). It was written -- as its subtitle says -- as a "proposal for an IGBP-HDP Core Project" on "Relating Land Use and Global Land-Cover Change". The booklet can be seen as some kind of programmatic statement to guide international collaborative research on global land-use change. ...

  12. Diurnal Variation of Tropical Ice Cloud Microphysics inferred from Global Precipitation Measurement Microwave Imager (GPM-GMI)'s Polarimetric Measurement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, J.; Zeng, X.; Wu, D. L.; Li, X.

    2017-12-01

    Diurnal variation of tropical ice cloud has been well observed and examined in terms of the area of coverage, occurring frequency, and total mass, but rarely on ice microphysical parameters (habit, size, orientation, etc.) because of lack of direct measurements of ice microphysics on a high temporal and spatial resolutions. This accounts for a great portion of the uncertainty in evaluating ice cloud's role on global radiation and hydrological budgets. The design of Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission's procession orbit gives us an unprecedented opportunity to study the diurnal variation of ice microphysics on the global scale for the first time. Dominated by cloud ice scattering, high-frequency microwave polarimetric difference (PD, namely the brightness temperature difference between vertically- and horizontally-polarized paired channel measurements) from the GPM Microwave Imager (GMI) has been proven by our previous study to be very valuable to infer cloud ice microphysical properties. Using one year of PD measurements at 166 GHz, we found that cloud PD exhibits a strong diurnal cycle in the tropics (25S-25N). The peak PD amplitude varies as much as 35% over land, compared to only 6% over ocean. The diurnal cycle of the peak PD value is strongly anti-correlated with local ice cloud occurring frequency and the total ice mass with a leading period of 3 hours for the maximum correlation. The observed PD diurnal cycle can be explained by the change of ice crystal axial ratio. Using a radiative transfer model, we can simulate the observed 166 GHz PD-brightness temperature curve as well as its diurnal variation using different axial ratio values, which can be caused by the diurnal variation of ice microphysical properties including particle size, percentage of horizontally-aligned non-spherical particles, and ice habit. The leading of the change of PD ahead of ice cloud mass and occurring frequency implies the important role microphysics play in the

  13. Evidence for middle Eocene Arctic sea ice from diatoms and ice-rafted debris.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stickley, Catherine E; St John, Kristen; Koç, Nalân; Jordan, Richard W; Passchier, Sandra; Pearce, Richard B; Kearns, Lance E

    2009-07-16

    Oceanic sediments from long cores drilled on the Lomonosov ridge, in the central Arctic, contain ice-rafted debris (IRD) back to the middle Eocene epoch, prompting recent suggestions that ice appeared in the Arctic about 46 million years (Myr) ago. However, because IRD can be transported by icebergs (derived from land-based ice) and also by sea ice, IRD records are restricted to providing a history of general ice-rafting only. It is critical to differentiate sea ice from glacial (land-based) ice as climate feedback mechanisms vary and global impacts differ between these systems: sea ice directly affects ocean-atmosphere exchanges, whereas land-based ice affects sea level and consequently ocean acidity. An earlier report assumed that sea ice was prevalent in the middle Eocene Arctic on the basis of IRD, and although somewhat preliminary supportive evidence exists, these data are neither comprehensive nor quantified. Here we show the presence of middle Eocene Arctic sea ice from an extraordinary abundance of a group of sea-ice-dependent fossil diatoms (Synedropsis spp.). Analysis of quartz grain textural characteristics further supports sea ice as the dominant transporter of IRD at this time. Together with new information on cosmopolitan diatoms and existing IRD records, our data strongly suggest a two-phase establishment of sea ice: initial episodic formation in marginal shelf areas approximately 47.5 Myr ago, followed approximately 0.5 Myr later by the onset of seasonally paced sea-ice formation in offshore areas of the central Arctic. Our data establish a 2-Myr record of sea ice, documenting the transition from a warm, ice-free environment to one dominated by winter sea ice at the start of the middle Eocene climatic cooling phase.

  14. The Met Office Coupled Atmosphere/Land/Ocean/Sea-Ice Data Assimilation System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lea, Daniel; Mirouze, Isabelle; King, Robert; Martin, Matthew; Hines, Adrian

    2015-04-01

    The Met Office has developed a weakly-coupled data assimilation (DA) system using the global coupled model HadGEM3 (Hadley Centre Global Environment Model, version 3). At present the analysis from separate ocean and atmosphere DA systems are combined to produced coupled forecasts. The aim of coupled DA is to produce a more consistent analysis for coupled forecasts which may lead to less initialisation shock and improved forecast performance. The HadGEM3 coupled model combines the atmospheric model UM (Unified Model) at 60 km horizontal resolution on 85 vertical levels, the ocean model NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) at 25 km (at the equator) horizontal resolution on 75 vertical levels, and the sea-ice model CICE at the same resolution as NEMO. The atmosphere and the ocean/sea-ice fields are coupled every 1-hour using the OASIS coupler. The coupled model is corrected using two separate 6-hour window data assimilation systems: a 4D-Var for the atmosphere with associated soil moisture content nudging and snow analysis schemes on the one hand, and a 3D-Var FGAT for the ocean and sea-ice on the other hand. The background information in the DA systems comes from a previous 6-hour forecast of the coupled model. To isolate the impact of the coupled DA, 13-month experiments have been carried out, including 1) a full atmosphere/land/ocean/sea-ice coupled DA run, 2) an atmosphere-only run forced by OSTIA SSTs and sea-ice with atmosphere and land DA, and 3) an ocean-only run forced by atmospheric fields from run 2 with ocean and sea-ice DA. In addition, 5-day and 10-day forecast runs, have been produced from initial conditions generated by either run 1 or a combination of runs 2 and 3. The different results have been compared to each other and, whenever possible, to other references such as the Met Office atmosphere and ocean operational analyses or the OSTIA SST data. The performance of the coupled DA is similar to the existing separate ocean and atmosphere

  15. An investigation of the astronomical theory of the ice ages using a simple climate-ice sheet model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pollard, D.

    1978-01-01

    The astronomical theory of the Quaternary ice ages is incorporated into a simple climate model for global weather; important features of the model include the albedo feedback, topography and dynamics of the ice sheets. For various parameterizations of the orbital elements, the model yields realistic assessments of the northern ice sheet. Lack of a land-sea heat capacity contrast represents one of the chief difficulties of the model.

  16. Advancing land-terminating ice margin in North Greenland - characteristics, evolution, and first field measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steiner, J. F.; Prinz, R.; Abermann, J.

    2017-12-01

    More than 40% of the ice sheet in North Greenland terminate on land, however the characteristics of this ice margin and response to a changing climate have so far received little attention. While land-terminating ice cliffs are a feature commonly found and studied in other regions, detailed investigations in Greenland were only carried out more than six decades ago in the Thule area (Red Rock, Northwest Greenland). These studies showed a continuous advance at one location over multiple years, while the local mass balance was reported negative. The purpose of our study is to revisit the location previously studied and extend the analysis to the complete Northern ice margin employing newly available high-resolution digital terrain models (Arctic DEM). First results show that the advance at Red Rock is indeed long-term, continuing unabated today at rates of up to several meter per year. Similar magnitudes were found for large other stretches along the ice margin. With our study we aim to show (a) the main characteristics of the land-terminating ice margin in Northern Greenland, namely its slope and aspect distribution and comparison to spatial datasets of flow velocity and mass balance and (b) to provide further explanations of physical processes driving the advance. We have therefore mapped the complete ice margin and present the first results of this analysis. First field work provides new data on energy fluxes and ice temperatures at the Red Rock site as well as high resolution DEMs obtained with the use of UAVs.

  17. Global land ice measurements from space (GLIMS): remote sensing and GIS investigations of the Earth's cryosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bishop, Michael P.; Olsenholler, Jeffrey A.; Shroder, John F.; Barry, Roger G.; Rasup, Bruce H.; Bush, Andrew B. G.; Copland, Luke; Dwyer, John L.; Fountain, Andrew G.; Haeberli, Wilfried; Kääb, Andreas; Paul, Frank; Hall, Dorothy K.; Kargel, Jeffrey S.; Molnia, Bruce F.; Trabant, Dennis C.; Wessels, Rick L.

    2004-01-01

    Concerns over greenhouse‐gas forcing and global temperatures have initiated research into understanding climate forcing and associated Earth‐system responses. A significant component is the Earth's cryosphere, as glacier‐related, feedback mechanisms govern atmospheric, hydrospheric and lithospheric response. Predicting the human and natural dimensions of climate‐induced environmental change requires global, regional and local information about ice‐mass distribution, volumes, and fluctuations. The Global Land‐Ice Measurements from Space (GLIMS) project is specifically designed to produce and augment baseline information to facilitate glacier‐change studies. This requires addressing numerous issues, including the generation of topographic information, anisotropic‐reflectance correction of satellite imagery, data fusion and spatial analysis, and GIS‐based modeling. Field and satellite investigations indicate that many small glaciers and glaciers in temperate regions are downwasting and retreating, although detailed mapping and assessment are still required to ascertain regional and global patterns of ice‐mass variations. Such remote sensing/GIS studies, coupled with field investigations, are vital for producing baseline information on glacier changes, and improving our understanding of the complex linkages between atmospheric, lithospheric, and glaciological processes.

  18. Global ice volume variations through the last glacial cycle simulated by a 3-D ice-dynamical model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bintanja, R.; Wal, R.S.W. van de; Oerlemans, J.

    2002-01-01

    A coupled ice sheet—ice shelf—bedrock model was run at 20km resolution to simulate the evolution of global ice cover during the last glacial cycle. The mass balance model uses monthly mean temperature and precipitation as input and incorporates the albedo—mass balance feedback. The model is forced

  19. Coupled model of INM-IO global ocean model, CICE sea ice model and SCM OIAS framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayburin, Ruslan; Rashit, Ibrayev; Konstantin, Ushakov; Vladimir, Kalmykov; Gleb, Dyakonov

    2015-04-01

    Status of coupled Arctic model of ocean and sea ice is presented. Model consists of INM IO global ocean component of high resolution, Los Alamos National Laboratory CICE sea ice model and a framework SCM OIAS for the ocean-ice-atmosphere-land coupled modeling on massively-parallel architectures. Model is currently under development at the Institute of Numerical Mathematics (INM), Hydrometeorological Center (HMC) and P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology (IO). Model is aimed at modeling of intra-annual variability of hydrodynamics in Arctic and. The computational characteristics of the world ocean-sea ice coupled model governed by SCM OIAS are presented. The model is parallelized using MPI technologies and currently can use efficiently up to 5000 cores. Details of programming implementation, computational configuration and physical phenomena parametrization are analyzed in terms of intercoupling complex. Results of five year computational experiment of sea ice, snow and ocean state evolution in Arctic region on tripole grid with horizontal resolution of 3-5 kilometers, closed by atmospheric forcing field from repeating "normal" annual course taken from CORE1 experiment data base are presented and analyzed in terms of the state of vorticity and warm Atlantic water expansion.

  20. MASS BALANCE CHANGES AND ICE DYNAMICS OF GREENLAND AND ANTARCTIC ICE SHEETS FROM LASER ALTIMETRY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. S. Babonis

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available During the past few decades the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have lost ice at accelerating rates, caused by increasing surface temperature. The melting of the two big ice sheets has a big impact on global sea level rise. If the ice sheets would melt down entirely, the sea level would rise more than 60 m. Even a much smaller rise would cause dramatic damage along coastal regions. In this paper we report about a major upgrade of surface elevation changes derived from laser altimetry data, acquired by NASA’s Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite mission (ICESat and airborne laser campaigns, such as Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM and Land, Vegetation and Ice Sensor (LVIS. For detecting changes in ice sheet elevations we have developed the Surface Elevation Reconstruction And Change detection (SERAC method. It computes elevation changes of small surface patches by keeping the surface shape constant and considering the absolute values as surface elevations. We report about important upgrades of earlier results, for example the inclusion of local ice caps and the temporal extension from 1993 to 2014 for the Greenland Ice Sheet and for a comprehensive reconstruction of ice thickness and mass changes for the Antarctic Ice Sheets.

  1. Ice Lens Formation and Frost Heave at the Phoenix Landing Site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zent, A. P.; Sizemore, H. G.; Remple, A. W.

    2011-01-01

    Several lines of evidence indicate that the volume of shallow ground ice in the martian high latitudes exceeds the pore volume of the host regolith. Boynton et al. found an optimal fit to the Mars Odyssey Gamma Ray Spectrometer (GRS) data at the Phoenix landing site by modeling a buried layer of 50-75% ice by mass (up to 90% ice by volume). Thermal and optical observations of recent impact craters in the northern hemisphere have revealed nearly pure ice. Ice deposits containing only 1-2% soil by volume were excavated by Phoenix. The leading hypothesis for the origin of this excess ice is that it developed in situ by a mechanism analogous to the formation of terrestrial ice lenses and needle ice. Problematically, terrestrial soil-ice segregation is driven by freeze/thaw cycling and the movement of bulk water, neither of which are expected to have occurred in the geologically recent past on Mars. If however ice lens formation is possible at temperatures less than 273 K, there are possible implications for the habitability of Mars permafrost, since the same thin films of unfrozen water that lead to ice segregation are used by terrestrial psychrophiles to metabolize and grow down to temperatures of at least 258 K.

  2. Interaction of ice sheets and climate during the past 800 000 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stap, L. B.; van de Wal, R. S. W.; de Boer, B.; Bintanja, R.; Lourens, L. J.

    2014-12-01

    During the Cenozoic, land ice and climate interacted on many different timescales. On long timescales, the effect of land ice on global climate and sea level is mainly set by large ice sheets in North America, Eurasia, Greenland and Antarctica. The climatic forcing of these ice sheets is largely determined by the meridional temperature profile resulting from radiation and greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. As a response, the ice sheets cause an increase in albedo and surface elevation, which operates as a feedback in the climate system. To quantify the importance of these climate-land ice processes, a zonally averaged energy balance climate model is coupled to five one-dimensional ice sheet models, representing the major ice sheets. In this study, we focus on the transient simulation of the past 800 000 years, where a high-confidence CO2 record from ice core samples is used as input in combination with Milankovitch radiation changes. We obtain simulations of atmospheric temperature, ice volume and sea level that are in good agreement with recent proxy-data reconstructions. We examine long-term climate-ice-sheet interactions by a comparison of simulations with uncoupled and coupled ice sheets. We show that these interactions amplify global temperature anomalies by up to a factor of 2.6, and that they increase polar amplification by 94%. We demonstrate that, on these long timescales, the ice-albedo feedback has a larger and more global influence on the meridional atmospheric temperature profile than the surface-height-temperature feedback. Furthermore, we assess the influence of CO2 and insolation by performing runs with one or both of these variables held constant. We find that atmospheric temperature is controlled by a complex interaction of CO2 and insolation, and both variables serve as thresholds for northern hemispheric glaciation.

  3. Interaction of ice sheets and climate during the past 800 000 years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. B. Stap

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available During the Cenozoic, land ice and climate interacted on many different timescales. On long timescales, the effect of land ice on global climate and sea level is mainly set by large ice sheets in North America, Eurasia, Greenland and Antarctica. The climatic forcing of these ice sheets is largely determined by the meridional temperature profile resulting from radiation and greenhouse gas (GHG forcing. As a response, the ice sheets cause an increase in albedo and surface elevation, which operates as a feedback in the climate system. To quantify the importance of these climate–land ice processes, a zonally averaged energy balance climate model is coupled to five one-dimensional ice sheet models, representing the major ice sheets. In this study, we focus on the transient simulation of the past 800 000 years, where a high-confidence CO2 record from ice core samples is used as input in combination with Milankovitch radiation changes. We obtain simulations of atmospheric temperature, ice volume and sea level that are in good agreement with recent proxy-data reconstructions. We examine long-term climate–ice-sheet interactions by a comparison of simulations with uncoupled and coupled ice sheets. We show that these interactions amplify global temperature anomalies by up to a factor of 2.6, and that they increase polar amplification by 94%. We demonstrate that, on these long timescales, the ice-albedo feedback has a larger and more global influence on the meridional atmospheric temperature profile than the surface-height-temperature feedback. Furthermore, we assess the influence of CO2 and insolation by performing runs with one or both of these variables held constant. We find that atmospheric temperature is controlled by a complex interaction of CO2 and insolation, and both variables serve as thresholds for northern hemispheric glaciation.

  4. How important is biological ice nucleation in clouds on a global scale?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoose, C; Kristjansson, J E; Burrows, S M

    2010-01-01

    The high ice nucleating ability of some biological particles has led to speculations about living and dead organisms being involved in cloud ice and precipitation formation, exerting a possibly significant influence on weather and climate. In the present study, the role of primary biological aerosol particles (PBAPs) as heterogeneous ice nuclei is investigated with a global model. Emission parametrizations for bacteria, fungal spores and pollen based on recent literature are introduced, as well as an immersion freezing parametrization based on classical nucleation theory and laboratory measurements. The simulated contribution of PBAPs to the global average ice nucleation rate is only 10 -5 %, with an uppermost estimate of 0.6%. At the same time, observed PBAP concentrations in air and biological ice nucleus concentrations in snow are reasonably well captured by the model. This implies that 'bioprecipitation' processes (snow and rain initiated by PBAPs) are of minor importance on the global scale.

  5. GLOBAL CHANGES IN THE SEA ICE COVER AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TEMPERATURE CHANGES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. Comiso

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The trends in the sea ice cover in the two hemispheres have been observed to be asymmetric with the rate of change in the Arctic being negative at −3.8 % per decade while that of the Antarctic is positive at 1.7 % per decade. These observations are confirmed in this study through analyses of a more robust data set that has been enhanced for better consistency and updated for improved statistics. With reports of anthropogenic global warming such phenomenon appears physically counter intuitive but trend studies of surface temperature over the same time period show the occurrence of a similar asymmetry. Satellite surface temperature data show that while global warming is strong and dominant in the Arctic, it is relatively minor in the Antarctic with the trends in sea ice covered areas and surrounding ice free regions observed to be even negative. A strong correlation of ice extent with surface temperature is observed, especially during the growth season, and the observed trends in the sea ice cover are coherent with the trends in surface temperature. The trend of global averages of the ice cover is negative but modest and is consistent and compatible with the positive but modest trend in global surface temperature. A continuation of the trend would mean the disappearance of summer ice by the end of the century but modelling projections indicate that the summer ice could be salvaged if anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are kept constant at the current level.

  6. Space use of a dominant Arctic vertebrate: Effects of prey, sea ice, and land on Pacific walrus resource selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beatty, William; Jay, Chadwick V.; Fischbach, Anthony S.; Grebmeier, Jacqueline M.; Taylor, Rebecca L.; Blanchard, Arny L.; Jewett, Stephen C.

    2016-01-01

    Sea ice dominates marine ecosystems in the Arctic, and recent reductions in sea ice may alter food webs throughout the region. Sea ice loss may also stress Pacific walruses (Odobenus rosmarus divergens), which feed on benthic macroinvertebrates in the Bering and Chukchi seas. However, no studies have examined the effects of sea ice on foraging Pacific walrus space use patterns. We tested a series of hypotheses that examined walrus foraging resource selection as a function of proximity to resting substrates and prey biomass. We quantified walrus prey biomass with 17 benthic invertebrate families, which included bivalves, polychaetes, amphipods, tunicates, and sipunculids. We included covariates for distance to sea ice and distance to land, and systematically developed a series of candidate models to examine interactions among benthic prey biomass and resting substrates. We ranked candidate models with Bayesian Information Criterion and made inferences on walrus resource selection based on the top-ranked model. Based on the top model, biomass of the bivalve family Tellinidae, distance to ice, distance to land, and the interaction of distances to ice and land all positively influenced walrus foraging resource selection. Standardized model coefficients indicated that distance to ice explained the most variation in walrus foraging resource selection followed by Tellinidae biomass. Distance to land and the interaction of distances to ice and land accounted for similar levels of variation. Tellinidae biomass likely represented an index of overall bivalve biomass, indicating walruses focused foraging in areas with elevated levels of bivalve and tellinid biomass. Our results also emphasize the importance of sea ice to walruses. Projected sea ice loss will increase the duration of the open water season in the Chukchi Sea, altering the spatial distribution of resting sites relative to current foraging areas and possibly affecting the spatial structure of benthic communities.

  7. Land motion due to 20th century mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kjeldsen, K. K.; Khan, S. A.

    2017-12-01

    Quantifying the contribution from ice sheets and glaciers to past sea level change is of great value for understanding sea level projections into the 21st century. However, quantifying and understanding past changes are equally important, in particular understanding the impact in the near-field where the signal is highest. We assess the impact of 20th century mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet on land motion using results from Kjeldsen et al, 2015. These results suggest that the ice sheet on average lost a minimum of 75 Gt/yr, but also show that the mass balance was highly spatial- and temporal variable, and moreover that on a centennial time scale changes were driven by a decreasing surface mass balance. Based on preliminary results we discuss land motion during the 20th century due to mass balance changes and the driving components surface mass balance and ice dynamics.

  8. Land cover mapping of North and Central America—Global Land Cover 2000

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latifovic, Rasim; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

    2004-01-01

    The Land Cover Map of North and Central America for the year 2000 (GLC 2000-NCA), prepared by NRCan/CCRS and USGS/EROS Data Centre (EDC) as a regional component of the Global Land Cover 2000 project, is the subject of this paper. A new mapping approach for transforming satellite observations acquired by the SPOT4/VGTETATION (VGT) sensor into land cover information is outlined. The procedure includes: (1) conversion of daily data into 10-day composite; (2) post-seasonal correction and refinement of apparent surface reflectance in 10-day composite images; and (3) extraction of land cover information from the composite images. The pre-processing and mosaicking techniques developed and used in this study proved to be very effective in removing cloud contamination, BRDF effects, and noise in Short Wave Infra-Red (SWIR). The GLC 2000-NCA land cover map is provided as a regional product with 28 land cover classes based on modified Federal Geographic Data Committee/Vegetation Classification Standard (FGDC NVCS) classification system, and as part of a global product with 22 land cover classes based on Land Cover Classification System (LCCS) of the Food and Agriculture Organisation. The map was compared on both areal and per-pixel bases over North and Central America to the International Geosphere–Biosphere Programme (IGBP) global land cover classification, the University of Maryland global land cover classification (UMd) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Global land cover classification produced by Boston University (BU). There was good agreement (79%) on the spatial distribution and areal extent of forest between GLC 2000-NCA and the other maps, however, GLC 2000-NCA provides additional information on the spatial distribution of forest types. The GLC 2000-NCA map was produced at the continental level incorporating specific needs of the region.

  9. Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, Ice Core, 1991 and 1992, Version 1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Major ion concentration values (Na, Mg, Ca, Cl, NO3, SO4, MSA) were analyzed from a 20-meter ice core drilled in Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica (location - 65 01'...

  10. Global Warming - Are We on Thin Ice?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucker, Compton J.

    2007-01-01

    The evidence for global warming is very conclusive for the past 400-500 years. Prior to the 16th century, proxy surface temperature data are regionally good but lack a global distribution. The speaker will review surface temperature reconstruction based upon ice cores, coral cores, tree rings, deep sea sediments, and bore holes and discuss the controversy surrounding global warming. This will be contrasted with the excellent data we have from the satellite era of earth observations the past 30+ years that enables the quantitative study of climate across earth science disciplines.

  11. The surface of the ice-age Earth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1976-03-19

    In the Northern Hemisphere the 18,000 B.P. world differed strikingly from the present in the huge land-based ice sheets, reaching approximately 3 km in thickness, and in a dramatic increase in the extent of pack ice and marine-based ice sheets. In the Southern Hemisphere the most striking contrast was the greater extent of sea ice. On land, grasslands, steppes, and deserts spread at the expense of forests. This change in vegetation, together with extensive areas of permanent ice and sandy outwash plains, caused an increase in global surface albedo over modern values. Sea level was lower by at least 85 m. The 18,000 B.P. oceans were characterized by: (i) marked steepening of thermal gradients along polar frontal systems, particularly in the North Atlantic and Antarctic; (ii) an equatorward displacement of polar frontal systems; (iii) general cooling of most surface waters, with a global average of -2.3 degrees C; (iv) increased cooling and up-welling along equatorial divergences in the Pacific and Atlantic; (v) low temperatures extending equatorward along the western coast of Africa, Australia, and South America, indicating increased upwelling and advection of cool waters; and (vi) nearly stable positions and temperatures of the central gyres in the subtropical Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian oceans.

  12. Academic Globalization And Ice: Cross-Cultural Research And Transnational Education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marta Szabo White

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available As the Lion said to the Man, "There are many statues of men slaying lions, but if only the lions were sculptors there might be quite a different set of statues." - Aesop Commensurate with Aesop's message of the sculptor matters, so does the communicator, the language and surprisingly, business context. The evolution from the experientially-based Cultureactive to the theoretically-based ICE, from first-generation to second-generation, this paper underscores the marriage of cross-cultural research and transnational education. Both Cultureactive and ICE serve at the pleasure of Globalization, and more importantly, Academic Globalization and Transnational Education. The impetus for this paper derives from two pivotal questions: Does one's professional lens create similarities more dominant than culture; and does English evoke responses significantly different from those of one's native language. ICE emerged from Cultureactive when validity and reliability research issues became noteworthy. Known as the ABC research team, Adair, Buchan and Chen [1] and [2] capitalized upon both Hall's low context/high context communication tool and Triandis' model of subjective culture to result in the theoretical underpinnings for ICE. This conceptual reconfiguration is also grounded in the works of Trompenaars, Holtgraves, Hampden-Turner, Thomas and Kilman, Yamagishi, and Bearden, Money and Nevins [3], [11], [20], [22] and [24]. ICE implementation strategies include the employment of Myers Briggs typologies. The contribution of this paper is the celebration of the first year of ICE [InterCultural Edge], and its far-reaching ramifications. Previous research streams have underscored global similarities and differences among cultures, and a previous paper [23] established that cross-professional rather than cross-cultural differences are more paramount in assessing communication differences. This study employs Cultureactive and the LMR model, noting that business

  13. Globalizing land use transitions: the soybean acceleration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reenberg, Anette; Fenger, Nina Astrid

    2011-01-01

    into a leading player on the global scale. It takes point of departure in a land change science approach and employs the notions of underlying and proximate drivers and teleconnections to characterize the process of land use change in relation to the accelerating use of land for soybean cultivation.......This note presents the recent global development trends in soybean cultivation as derived from the FAO statistics. It focuses on the change over the course of the last thirty years, when significant new allocations of the global production have occurred, which have turned South America...

  14. Creation of a strategic framework for global development of ice hockey

    OpenAIRE

    Nieminen, Aku

    2016-01-01

    The International Ice Hockey Federation (IIHF) is the international governing body of ice hockey and inline hockey. Among many responsibilities and objectives, one of the main tasks of the IIHF is to develop ice hockey on a global scale. The IIHF has 74 Member National Associations which can benefit from the development programs of the IIHF. These development programs have the purpose of assisting and supporting the National Association in the domestic development of ice hockey in their count...

  15. Global land-water nexus: Agricultural land and freshwater use embodied in worldwide supply chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, B; Han, M Y; Peng, K; Zhou, S L; Shao, L; Wu, X F; Wei, W D; Liu, S Y; Li, Z; Li, J S; Chen, G Q

    2018-02-01

    As agricultural land and freshwater inextricably interrelate and interact with each other, the conventional water and land policy in "silos" should give way to nexus thinking when formulating the land and water management strategies. This study constructs a systems multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model to expound global land-water nexus by simultaneously tracking agricultural land and freshwater use flows along the global supply chains. Furthermore, land productivity and irrigation water requirements of 160 crops in different regions are investigated to reflect the land-water linkage. Results show that developed economies (e.g., USA and Japan) and major large developing economies (e.g., mainland China and India) are the overriding drivers of agricultural land and freshwater use globally. In general, significant net transfers of these two resources are identified from resource-rich and less-developed economies to resource-poor and more-developed economies. For some crops, blue water productivity is inversely related to land productivity, indicating that irrigation water consumption is sometimes at odds with land use. The results could stimulus international cooperation for sustainable land and freshwater management targeting on original suppliers and final consumers along the global supply chains. Moreover, crop-specific land-water linkage could provide insights for trade-off decisions on minimizing the environmental impacts on local land and water resources. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Potential decadal predictability and its sensitivity to sea ice albedo parameterization in a global coupled model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koenigk, Torben; Caian, Mihaela; Doescher, Ralf; Wyser, Klaus [Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Rossby Centre, Norrkoeping (Sweden); Koenig Beatty, Christof [Universite Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium)

    2012-06-15

    Decadal prediction is one focus of the upcoming 5th IPCC Assessment report. To be able to interpret the results and to further improve the decadal predictions it is important to investigate the potential predictability in the participating climate models. This study analyzes the upper limit of climate predictability on decadal time scales and its dependency on sea ice albedo parameterization by performing two perfect ensemble experiments with the global coupled climate model EC-Earth. In the first experiment, the standard albedo formulation of EC-Earth is used, in the second experiment sea ice albedo is reduced. The potential prognostic predictability is analyzed for a set of oceanic and atmospheric parameters. The decadal predictability of the atmospheric circulation is small. The highest potential predictability was found in air temperature at 2 m height over the northern North Atlantic and the southern South Atlantic. Over land, only a few areas are significantly predictable. The predictability for continental size averages of air temperature is relatively good in all northern hemisphere regions. Sea ice thickness is highly predictable along the ice edges in the North Atlantic Arctic Sector. The meridional overturning circulation is highly predictable in both experiments and governs most of the decadal climate predictability in the northern hemisphere. The experiments using reduced sea ice albedo show some important differences like a generally higher predictability of atmospheric variables in the Arctic or higher predictability of air temperature in Europe. Furthermore, decadal variations are substantially smaller in the simulations with reduced ice albedo, which can be explained by reduced sea ice thickness in these simulations. (orig.)

  17. Characterizing of a Mid-Latitude Ice-Rich Landing Site on Mars to Enable in Situ Habitability Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heldmann, J.; Schurmeier, L. R.; Wilhelm, M.; Stoker, C.; McKay, C.; Davila, A.; Marinova, M.; Karcz, J.; Smith, H.

    2012-01-01

    We suggest an ice-rich landing site at 188.5E 46.16N within Amazonis Planitia as a candidate location to support a Mars lander mission equipped to study past habitability and regions capable of preserving the physical and chemical signs of life and organic matter. Studies of the ice-rich subsurface on Mars are critical for several reasons. The subsurface environment provides protection from radiation to shield organic and biologic compounds from destruction. The ice-rich substrate is also ideal for preserving organic and biologic molecules and provides a source of H2O for biologic activity. Examination of martian ground ice can test several hypotheses such as: 1) whether ground ice supports habitable conditions, 2) that ground ice can preserve and accumulate organic compounds, and 3) that ice contains biomolecules evident of past or present biological activity on Mars. This Amazonis site, located near the successful Viking Lander 2, shows indirect evidence of subsurface ice (ubiquitous defined polygonal ground, gamma ray spectrometer hydrogen signature, and numerical modeling of ice stability) and direct evidence of exposed subsurface ice. This site also provides surface conditions favorable to a safe landing including no boulders, low rock density, minimal rough topography, and few craters.

  18. A prelanding assessment of the ice table depth and ground ice characteristics in Martian permafrost at the Phoenix landing site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mellon, M.T.; Boynton, W.V.; Feldman, W.C.; Arvidson, R. E.; Titus, Joshua T.N.; Bandfield, L.; Putzig, N.E.; Sizemore, H.G.

    2009-01-01

    We review multiple estimates of the ice table depth at potential Phoenix landing sites and consider the possible state and distribution of subsurface ice. A two-layer model of ice-rich material overlain by ice-free material is consistent with both the observational and theoretical lines of evidence. Results indicate ground ice to be shallow and ubiquitous, 2-6 cm below the surface. Undulations in the ice table depth are expected because of the thermodynamic effects of rocks, slopes, and soil variations on the scale of the Phoenix Lander and within the digging area, which can be advantageous for analysis of both dry surficial soils and buried ice-rich materials. The ground ice at the ice table to be sampled by the Phoenix Lander is expected to be geologically young because of recent climate oscillations. However, estimates of the ratio of soil to ice in the ice-rich subsurface layer suggest that that the ice content exceeds the available pore space, which is difficult to reconcile with existing ground ice stability and dynamics models. These high concentrations of ice may be the result of either the burial of surface snow during times of higher obliquity, initially high-porosity soils, or the migration of water along thin films. Measurement of the D/H ratio within the ice at the ice table and of the soil-to-ice ratio, as well as imaging ice-soil textures, will help determine if the ice is indeed young and if the models of the effects of climate change on the ground ice are reasonable. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

  19. 21st century changes in the surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet simulated with the global model CESM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vizcaíno, M.; Lipscomb, W. H.; Van den Broeke, M.

    2012-04-01

    We present here the first projections of 21st century surface mass balance change of the Greenland ice sheet simulated with the Community Earth System Model (CESM). CESM is a fully-coupled, global climate model developed at many research centers and universities, primarily in the U.S. The model calculates the surface mass balance in the land component (the Community Land Model, CLM), at the same resolution as the atmosphere (1 degree), with an energy-balance scheme. The snow physics included in CLM for non-glaciated surfaces (SNiCAR model, Flanner and Zender, 2005) are used over the ice sheet. The surface mass balance is calculated for 10 elevation classes, and then downscaled to the grid of the ice sheet model (5 km in this case) via vertical linear interpolation between elevation classes combined with horizontal bilinear interpolation. The ice sheet topography is fixed at present-day values for the simulations presented here. The use of elevation classes reduces computational costs while giving results that reproduce well the mass balance gradients at the steep margins of the ice sheet. The simulated present-day surface mass balance agrees well with results from regional models. We focus on the regional model RACMO (Ettema et al. 2009) to compare the results on 20th-century surface mass balance evolution and two-dimensional patterns. The surface mass balance of the ice sheet under RCP8.5. forcing becomes negative in the last decades of the 21st century. The equilibrium line becomes ~500 m higher on average. Accumulation changes are positive in the accumulation zone. We examine changes in refreezing, accumulation, albedo, surface fluxes, and the timing of the melt season.

  20. Historical Land-Cover Change and Land-Use Conversions Global Dataset

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A set of three estimates of land-cover types and annual transformations of land use are provided on a global 0.5 x0.5 degree lat/lon grid at annual time steps. The...

  1. The (in)effectiveness of Global Land Policies on Large-Scale Land Acquisition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verhoog, S.M.

    2014-01-01

    Due to current crises, large-scale land acquisition (LSLA) is becoming a topic of growing concern. Public data from the ‘Land Matrix Global Observatory’ project (Land Matrix 2014a) demonstrates that since 2000, 1,664 large-scale land transactions in low- and middle-income countries were reported,

  2. Land cover change or land use intensification: simulating land system change with a global-scale land change model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Asselen, S.; Verburg, P.H.

    2013-01-01

    Land-use change is both a cause and consequence of many biophysical and socioeconomic changes. The CLUMondo model provides an innovative approach for global land-use change modeling to support integrated assessments. Demands for goods and services are, in the model, supplied by a variety of land

  3. Improved Hydrology over Peatlands in a Global Land Modeling System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bechtold, M.; Delannoy, G.; Reichle, R.; Koster, R.; Mahanama, S.; Roose, Dirk

    2018-01-01

    Peatlands of the Northern Hemisphere represent an important carbon pool that mainly accumulated since the last ice age under permanently wet conditions in specific geological and climatic settings. The carbon balance of peatlands is closely coupled to water table dynamics. Consequently, the future carbon balance over peatlands is strongly dependent on how hydrology in peatlands will react to changing boundary conditions, e.g. due to climate change or regional water level drawdown of connected aquifers or streams. Global land surface modeling over organic-rich regions can provide valuable global-scale insights on where and how peatlands are in transition due to changing boundary conditions. However, the current global land surface models are not able to reproduce typical hydrological dynamics in peatlands well. We implemented specific structural and parametric changes to account for key hydrological characteristics of peatlands into NASA's GEOS-5 Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM, Koster et al. 2000). The main modifications pertain to the modeling of partial inundation, and the definition of peatland-specific runoff and evapotranspiration schemes. We ran a set of simulations on a high performance cluster using different CLSM configurations and validated the results with a newly compiled global in-situ dataset of water table depths in peatlands. The results demonstrate that an update of soil hydraulic properties for peat soils alone does not improve the performance of CLSM over peatlands. However, structural model changes for peatlands are able to improve the skill metrics for water table depth. The validation results for the water table depth indicate a reduction of the bias from 2.5 to 0.2 m, and an improvement of the temporal correlation coefficient from 0.5 to 0.65, and from 0.4 to 0.55 for the anomalies. Our validation data set includes both bogs (rain-fed) and fens (ground and/or surface water influence) and reveals that the metrics improved less for fens. In

  4. CICE, The Los Alamos Sea Ice Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2017-05-12

    The Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE) is the result of an effort to develop a computationally efficient sea ice component for a fully coupled atmosphere–land–ocean–ice global climate model. It was originally designed to be compatible with the Parallel Ocean Program (POP), an ocean circulation model developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory for use on massively parallel computers. CICE has several interacting components: a vertical thermodynamic model that computes local growth rates of snow and ice due to vertical conductive, radiative and turbulent fluxes, along with snowfall; an elastic-viscous-plastic model of ice dynamics, which predicts the velocity field of the ice pack based on a model of the material strength of the ice; an incremental remapping transport model that describes horizontal advection of the areal concentration, ice and snow volume and other state variables; and a ridging parameterization that transfers ice among thickness categories based on energetic balances and rates of strain. It also includes a biogeochemical model that describes evolution of the ice ecosystem. The CICE sea ice model is used for climate research as one component of complex global earth system models that include atmosphere, land, ocean and biogeochemistry components. It is also used for operational sea ice forecasting in the polar regions and in numerical weather prediction models.

  5. Global assessment of the economics of land degradation and improvement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nkonya, Ephraim

    2017-04-01

    Land degradation—defined by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment report as the long-term loss of ecosystems services—is a global problem, negatively affecting the livelihoods and food security of billions of people. Intensifying efforts, mobilizing more investments and strengthening the policy commitment for addressing land degradation at the global level needs to be supported by a careful evaluation of the costs and benefits of action versus costs of inaction against land degradation. Consistent with the definition of land degradation, we adopt the Total Economic Value (TEV) approach to determine the costs of land degradation and use remote sensing data and global statistical databases in our analysis. The results show that the annual costs of land degradation due to land use and land cover change (LUCC) are about US231 billion per year or about 0.41 % of the global GDP of US56.49 trillion in 2007. Contrary to past global land degradation assessment studies, land degradation is severe in both tropical and temperate countries. However, the losses from LUCC are especially high in Sub-Saharan Africa, which accounts for 26 % of the total global costs of land degradation due to LUCC. However, the local tangible losses (mainly provisioning services) account only for 46 % of the total cost of land degradation and the rest of the cost is due to the losses of ecosystem services (ES) accruable largely to beneficiaries other than the local land users. These external ES losses include carbon sequestration, biodiversity, genetic information and cultural services. This implies that the global community bears the largest cost of land degradation, which suggests that efforts to address land degradation should be done bearing in mind that the global community,as a whole, incurs larger losses than the local communities experiencing land degradation. The cost of soil fertility mining due to using land degrading management practices on maize, rice and wheat is estimated to be

  6. Integrated modelling of anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change on the global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaldach, R.; Koch, J.; Alcamo, J.

    2009-04-01

    In many cases land-use activities go hand in hand with substantial modifications of the physical and biological cover of the Earth's surface, resulting in direct effects on energy and matter fluxes between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. For instance, the conversion of forest to cropland is changing climate relevant surface parameters (e.g. albedo) as well as evapotranspiration processes and carbon flows. In turn, human land-use decisions are also influenced by environmental processes. Changing temperature and precipitation patterns for example are important determinants for location and intensity of agriculture. Due to these close linkages, processes of land-use and related land-cover change should be considered as important components in the construction of Earth System models. A major challenge in modelling land-use change on the global scale is the integration of socio-economic aspects and human decision making with environmental processes. One of the few global approaches that integrates functional components to represent both anthropogenic and environmental aspects of land-use change, is the LandSHIFT model. It simulates the spatial and temporal dynamics of the human land-use activities settlement, cultivation of food crops and grazing management, which compete for the available land resources. The rational of the model is to regionalize the demands for area intensive commodities (e.g. crop production) and services (e.g. space for housing) from the country-level to a global grid with the spatial resolution of 5 arc-minutes. The modelled land-use decisions within the agricultural sector are influenced by changing climate and the resulting effects on biomass productivity. Currently, this causal chain is modelled by integrating results from the process-based vegetation model LPJmL model for changing crop yields and net primary productivity of grazing land. Model output of LandSHIFT is a time series of grid maps with land-use/land-cover information

  7. Advances in land modeling of KIAPS based on the Noah Land Surface Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koo, Myung-Seo; Baek, Sunghye; Seol, Kyung-Hee; Cho, Kyoungmi

    2017-08-01

    As of 2013, the Noah Land Surface Model (LSM) version 2.7.1 was implemented in a new global model being developed at the Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems (KIAPS). This land surface scheme is further refined in two aspects, by adding new physical processes and by updating surface input parameters. Thus, the treatment of glacier land, sea ice, and snow cover are addressed more realistically. Inconsistencies in the amount of absorbed solar flux at ground level by the land surface and radiative processes are rectified. In addition, new parameters are available by using 1-km land cover data, which had usually not been possible at a global scale. Land surface albedo/emissivity climatology is newly created using Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellitebased data and adjusted parameterization. These updates have been applied to the KIAPS-developed model and generally provide a positive impact on near-surface weather forecasting.

  8. A meta-analysis of global urban land expansion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seto, Karen C; Fragkias, Michail; Güneralp, Burak; Reilly, Michael K

    2011-01-01

    The conversion of Earth's land surface to urban uses is one of the most irreversible human impacts on the global biosphere. It drives the loss of farmland, affects local climate, fragments habitats, and threatens biodiversity. Here we present a meta-analysis of 326 studies that have used remotely sensed images to map urban land conversion. We report a worldwide observed increase in urban land area of 58,000 km(2) from 1970 to 2000. India, China, and Africa have experienced the highest rates of urban land expansion, and the largest change in total urban extent has occurred in North America. Across all regions and for all three decades, urban land expansion rates are higher than or equal to urban population growth rates, suggesting that urban growth is becoming more expansive than compact. Annual growth in GDP per capita drives approximately half of the observed urban land expansion in China but only moderately affects urban expansion in India and Africa, where urban land expansion is driven more by urban population growth. In high income countries, rates of urban land expansion are slower and increasingly related to GDP growth. However, in North America, population growth contributes more to urban expansion than it does in Europe. Much of the observed variation in urban expansion was not captured by either population, GDP, or other variables in the model. This suggests that contemporary urban expansion is related to a variety of factors difficult to observe comprehensively at the global level, including international capital flows, the informal economy, land use policy, and generalized transport costs. Using the results from the global model, we develop forecasts for new urban land cover using SRES Scenarios. Our results show that by 2030, global urban land cover will increase between 430,000 km(2) and 12,568,000 km(2), with an estimate of 1,527,000 km(2) more likely.

  9. Land Tenure, Gender, and Globalization : Research and Analysis ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Land Tenure, Gender, and Globalization : Research and Analysis from Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Couverture du livre Land Tenure, Gender, and Globalization : Research and Analysis from Africa. Directeur(s) : Dzodzi Tsikata et Pamela Golah. Maison(s) d'édition : Zubaan, CRDI. 29 août 2009. ISBN : 9788189884727.

  10. Climate Modeling: Ocean Cavities below Ice Shelves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Petersen, Mark Roger [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Computer, Computational, and Statistical Sciences Division

    2016-09-12

    The Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME), a new initiative by the U.S. Department of Energy, includes unstructured-mesh ocean, land-ice, and sea-ice components using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) framework. The ability to run coupled high-resolution global simulations efficiently on large, high-performance computers is a priority for ACME. Sub-ice shelf ocean cavities are a significant new capability in ACME, and will be used to better understand how changing ocean temperature and currents influence glacial melting and retreat. These simulations take advantage of the horizontal variable-resolution mesh and adaptive vertical coordinate in MPAS-Ocean, in order to place high resolution below ice shelves and near grounding lines.

  11. A Contribution by Ice Nuclei to Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Xiping; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Zhang, Minghua; Hou, Arthur Y.; Xie, Shaocheng; Lang, Stephen; Li, Xiaowen; Starr, David O.; Li, Xiaofan

    2009-01-01

    Ice nuclei (IN) significantly affect clouds via supercooled droplets, that in turn modulate atmospheric radiation and thus climate change. Since the IN effect is relatively strong in stratiform clouds but weak in convective ones, the overall effect depends on the ratio of stratiform to convective cloud amount. In this paper, 10 years of TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite data are analyzed to confirm that stratiform precipitation fraction increases with increasing latitude, which implies that the IN effect is stronger at higher latitudes. To quantitatively evaluate the IN effect versus latitude, large-scale forcing data from ten field campaigns are used to drive a CRM (cloud-resolving model) to generate longterm cloud simulations. As revealed in the simulations, the increase in the net downward radiative flux at the TOA (top of the atmosphere) from doubling the current IN concentrations is larger at higher latitude, which is attributed to the meridional tendency in the stratiform precipitation fraction. Surface warming from doubling the IN concentrations, based on the radiative balance of the globe, is compared with that from anthropogenic COZ . It is found that the former effect is stronger than the latter in middle and high latitudes but not in the Tropics. With regard to the impact of IN on global warming, there are two factors to consider: the radiative effect from increasing the IN concentration and the increase in IN concentration itself. The former relies on cloud ensembles and thus varies mainly with latitude. In contrast, the latter relies on IN sources (e.g., the land surface distribution) and thus varies not only with latitude but also longitude. Global desertification and industrialization provide clues on the geographic variation of the increase in IN concentration since pre-industrial times. Thus, their effect on global warming can be inferred and then be compared with observations. A general match in geographic and seasonal

  12. Influence of Ice Particle Surface Roughening on the Global Cloud Radiative Effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, Bingqi; Yang, Ping; Baum, Bryan A.; LEcuyer, Tristan; Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Mlawer, Eli J.; Heymsfield, Andrew J.; Liou, Kuo-Nan

    2013-01-01

    Ice clouds influence the climate system by changing the radiation budget and large-scale circulation. Therefore, climate models need to have an accurate representation of ice clouds and their radiative effects. In this paper, new broadband parameterizations for ice cloud bulk scattering properties are developed for severely roughened ice particles. The parameterizations are based on a general habit mixture that includes nine habits (droxtals, hollow/solid columns, plates, solid/hollow bullet rosettes, aggregate of solid columns, and small/large aggregates of plates). The scattering properties for these individual habits incorporate recent advances in light-scattering computations. The influence of ice particle surface roughness on the ice cloud radiative effect is determined through simulations with the Fu-Liou and the GCM version of the Rapid Radiative Transfer Model (RRTMG) codes and the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model (CAM, version 5.1). The differences in shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) radiative effect at both the top of the atmosphere and the surface are determined for smooth and severely roughened ice particles. While the influence of particle roughening on the single-scattering properties is negligible in the LW, the results indicate that ice crystal roughness can change the SW forcing locally by more than 10 W m(exp -2) over a range of effective diameters. The global-averaged SW cloud radiative effect due to ice particle surface roughness is estimated to be roughly 1-2 W m(exp -2). The CAM results indicate that ice particle roughening can result in a large regional SW radiative effect and a small but nonnegligible increase in the global LW cloud radiative effect.

  13. Improved ice loss estimate of the northwestern Greenland ice sheet

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjeldsen, Kristian Kjellerup; Khan, Shfaqat Abbas; Wahr, J.

    2013-01-01

    We estimate ice volume change rates in the northwest Greenland drainage basin during 2003–2009 using Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) laser altimeter data. Elevation changes are often reported to be largest near the frontal portion of outlet glaciers. To improve the volume change...... estimate, we supplement the ICESat data with altimeter surveys from NASA's Airborne Topographic Mapper from 2002 to 2010 and NASA's Land, Vegetation and Ice Sensor from 2010. The Airborne data are mainly concentrated along the ice margin and thus have a significant impact on the estimate of the volume...... change. Our results show that adding Airborne Topographic Mapper and Land, Vegetation and Ice Sensor data to the ICESat data increases the catchment-wide estimate of ice volume loss by 11%, mainly due to an improved volume loss estimate along the ice sheet margin. Furthermore, our results show...

  14. Challenges and opportunities in mapping land use intensity globally

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kuemmerle, Tobias; Erb, Karlheinz; Meyfroidt, Patrick

    2013-01-01

    Future increases in land-based production will need to focus more on sustainably intensifying existing production systems. Unfortunately, our understanding of the global patterns of land use intensity is weak, partly because land use intensity is a complex, multidimensional term, and partly becau...... challenges and opportunities for mapping land use intensity for cropland, grazing, and forestry systems, and identify key issues for future research....... we lack appropriate datasets to assess land use intensity across broad geographic extents. Here, we review the state of the art regarding approaches for mapping land use intensity and provide a comprehensive overview of available global-scale datasets on land use intensity. We also outline major...

  15. CryoSat Land Ice Product Validation within the CryoVal-LI project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Louise Sandberg; Baker, Steven; Csatho, Bea

    The main objective of the ESA funded CryoVal-LI project has been to identify and quantify the error sources for the CryoSat-2 mission over land ice. This has been undertaken through the careful documentation of the possible error sources, the identification of suitable validation sites...

  16. Global Land Transport Infrastructure Requirements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-06-01

    Over the next four decades, global passenger and freight travel is expected to double over 2010 levels. In order to accommodate this growth, it is expected that the world will need to add nearly 25 million paved road lane-kilometres and 335 000 rail track kilometres. In addition, it is expected that between 45 000 square kilometres and 77 000 square kilometres of new parking spaces will be added to accommodate vehicle stock growth. These land transport infrastructure additions, when combined with operations, maintenance and repairs, are expected to cost as much as USD 45 trillion by 2050. This publication reports on the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) analysis of infrastructure requirements to support projected road and rail travel through 2050, using the IEA Mobility Model. It considers land transport infrastructure additions to support travel growth to 2050. It also considers potential savings if countries pursue “avoid and shift” policies: in this scenario, cumulative global land transport infrastructure spending could decrease as much as USD 20 trillion by 2050 over baseline projections.

  17. Can polar bears use terrestrial foods to offset lost ice-based hunting opportunities?

    OpenAIRE

    Rode, Karyn D.; Robbins, Charles T.; Nelson, Lynne; Amstrup, Steven C.

    2015-01-01

    Increased land use by polar bears (Ursus maritimus) due to climate‐change‐induced reduction of their sea‐ice habitat illustrates the impact of climate change on species distributions and the difficulty of conserving a large, highly specialized carnivore in the face of this global threat. Some authors have suggested that terrestrial food consumption by polar bears will help them withstand sea‐ice loss as they are forced to spend increasing amounts of time on land. Here, we evaluate the nutriti...

  18. Next generation of global land cover characterization, mapping, and monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giri, Chandra; Pengra, Bruce; Long, J.; Loveland, Thomas R.

    2013-01-01

    Land cover change is increasingly affecting the biophysics, biogeochemistry, and biogeography of the Earth's surface and the atmosphere, with far-reaching consequences to human well-being. However, our scientific understanding of the distribution and dynamics of land cover and land cover change (LCLCC) is limited. Previous global land cover assessments performed using coarse spatial resolution (300 m–1 km) satellite data did not provide enough thematic detail or change information for global change studies and for resource management. High resolution (∼30 m) land cover characterization and monitoring is needed that permits detection of land change at the scale of most human activity and offers the increased flexibility of environmental model parameterization needed for global change studies. However, there are a number of challenges to overcome before producing such data sets including unavailability of consistent global coverage of satellite data, sheer volume of data, unavailability of timely and accurate training and validation data, difficulties in preparing image mosaics, and high performance computing requirements. Integration of remote sensing and information technology is needed for process automation and high-performance computing needs. Recent developments in these areas have created an opportunity for operational high resolution land cover mapping, and monitoring of the world. Here, we report and discuss these advancements and opportunities in producing the next generations of global land cover characterization, mapping, and monitoring at 30-m spatial resolution primarily in the context of United States, Group on Earth Observations Global 30 m land cover initiative (UGLC).

  19. Variability of sea salts in ice and firn cores from Fimbul Ice Shelf, Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paulina Vega, Carmen; Isaksson, Elisabeth; Schlosser, Elisabeth; Divine, Dmitry; Martma, Tõnu; Mulvaney, Robert; Eichler, Anja; Schwikowski-Gigar, Margit

    2018-05-01

    Major ions were analysed in firn and ice cores located at Fimbul Ice Shelf (FIS), Dronning Maud Land - DML, Antarctica. FIS is the largest ice shelf in the Haakon VII Sea, with an extent of approximately 36 500 km2. Three shallow firn cores (about 20 m deep) were retrieved in different ice rises, Kupol Ciolkovskogo (KC), Kupol Moskovskij (KM), and Blåskimen Island (BI), while a 100 m long core (S100) was drilled near the FIS edge. These sites are distributed over the entire FIS area so that they provide a variety of elevation (50-400 m a.s.l.) and distance (3-42 km) to the sea. Sea-salt species (mainly Na+ and Cl-) generally dominate the precipitation chemistry in the study region. We associate a significant sixfold increase in median sea-salt concentrations, observed in the S100 core after the 1950s, to an enhanced exposure of the S100 site to primary sea-salt aerosol due to a shorter distance from the S100 site to the ice front, and to enhanced sea-salt aerosol production from blowing salty snow over sea ice, most likely related to the calving of Trolltunga occurred during the 1960s. This increase in sea-salt concentrations is synchronous with a shift in non-sea-salt sulfate (nssSO42-) toward negative values, suggesting a possible contribution of fractionated aerosol to the sea-salt load in the S100 core most likely originating from salty snow found on sea ice. In contrast, there is no evidence of a significant contribution of fractionated sea salt to the ice-rises sites, where the signal would be most likely masked by the large inputs of biogenic sulfate estimated for these sites. In summary, these results suggest that the S100 core contains a sea-salt record dominated by the proximity of the site to the ocean, and processes of sea ice formation in the neighbouring waters. In contrast, the ice-rises firn cores register a larger-scale signal of atmospheric flow conditions and a less efficient transport of sea-salt aerosols to these sites. These findings are a

  20. Variability and Anomalous Trends in the Global Sea Ice Cover

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comiso, Josefino C.

    2012-01-01

    The advent of satellite data came fortuitously at a time when the global sea ice cover has been changing rapidly and new techniques are needed to accurately assess the true state and characteristics of the global sea ice cover. The extent of the sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere has been declining by about -4% per decade for the period 1979 to 2011 but for the period from 1996 to 2010, the rate of decline became even more negative at -8% per decade, indicating an acceleration in the decline. More intriguing is the drastically declining perennial sea ice area, which is the ice that survives the summer melt and observed to be retreating at the rate of -14% per decade during the 1979 to 2012 period. Although a slight recovery occurred in the last three years from an abrupt decline in 2007, the perennial ice extent was almost as low as in 2007 in 2011. The multiyear ice, which is the thick component of the perennial ice and regarded as the mainstay of the Arctic sea ice cover is declining at an even higher rate of -19% per decade. The more rapid decline of the extent of this thicker ice type means that the volume of the ice is also declining making the survival of the Arctic ice in summer highly questionable. The slight recovery in 2008, 2009 and 2010 for the perennial ice in summer was likely associated with an apparent cycle in the time series with a period of about 8 years. Results of analysis of concurrent MODIS and AMSR-E data in summer also provide some evidence of more extensive summer melt and meltponding in 2007 and 2011 than in other years. Meanwhile, the Antarctic sea ice cover, as observed by the same set of satellite data, is showing an unexpected and counter intuitive increase of about 1 % per decade over the same period. Although a strong decline in ice extent is apparent in the Bellingshausen/ Amundsen Seas region, such decline is more than compensated by increases in the extent of the sea ice cover in the Ross Sea region. The results of analysis of

  1. Assessment of the Global and Regional Land Hydrosphere and Its Impact on the Balance of the Geophysical Excitation Function of Polar Motion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wińska, Małgorzata; Nastula, Jolanta; Kołaczek, Barbara

    2016-02-01

    The impact of continental hydrological loading from land water, snow and ice on polar motion excitation, calculated as hydrological angular momentum (HAM), is difficult to estimate, and not as much is known about it as about atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) and oceanic angular momentum (OAM). In this paper, regional hydrological excitations to polar motion are investigated using monthly terrestrial water storage data derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission and from the five models of land hydrology. The results show that the areas where the variance shows large variability are similar for the different models of land hydrology and for the GRACE data. Areas which have a small amplitude on the maps make an important contribution to the global hydrological excitation function of polar motion. The comparison of geodetic residuals and global hydrological excitation functions of polar motion shows that none of the hydrological excitation has enough energy to significantly improve the agreement between the observed geodetic excitation and geophysical ones.

  2. Global Land Survey Impervious Mapping Project Web Site

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeColstoun, Eric Brown; Phillips, Jacqueline

    2014-01-01

    The Global Land Survey Impervious Mapping Project (GLS-IMP) aims to produce the first global maps of impervious cover at the 30m spatial resolution of Landsat. The project uses Global Land Survey (GLS) Landsat data as its base but incorporates training data generated from very high resolution commercial satellite data and using a Hierarchical segmentation program called Hseg. The web site contains general project information, a high level description of the science, examples of input and output data, as well as links to other relevant projects.

  3. Hydrological impacts of global land cover change and human water use

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. H. C. Bosmans

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Human impacts on global terrestrial hydrology have been accelerating during the 20th century. These human impacts include the effects of reservoir building and human water use, as well as land cover change. To date, many global studies have focussed on human water use, but only a few focus on or include the impact of land cover change. Here we use PCR-GLOBWB, a combined global hydrological and water resources model, to assess the impacts of land cover change as well as human water use globally in different climatic zones. Our results show that land cover change has a strong effect on the global hydrological cycle, on the same order of magnitude as the effect of human water use (applying irrigation, abstracting water, for industrial use for example, including reservoirs, etc.. When globally averaged, changing the land cover from that of 1850 to that of 2000 increases discharge through reduced evapotranspiration. The effect of land cover change shows large spatial variability in magnitude and sign of change depending on, for example, the specific land cover change and climate zone. Overall, land cover effects on evapotranspiration are largest for the transition of tall natural vegetation to crops in energy-limited equatorial and warm temperate regions. In contrast, the inclusion of irrigation, water abstraction and reservoirs reduces global discharge through enhanced evaporation over irrigated areas and reservoirs as well as through water consumption. Hence, in some areas land cover change and water distribution both reduce discharge, while in other areas the effects may partly cancel out. The relative importance of both types of impacts varies spatially across climatic zones. From this study we conclude that land cover change needs to be considered when studying anthropogenic impacts on water resources.

  4. Inception of the Laurentide Ice Sheet using asynchronous coupling of a regional atmospheric model and an ice model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birch, L.; Cronin, T.; Tziperman, E.

    2017-12-01

    The climate over the past 0.8 million years has been dominated by ice ages. Ice sheets have grown about every 100 kyrs, starting from warm interglacials, until they spanned continents. State-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) have difficulty simulating glacial inception, or the transition of Earth's climate from an interglacial to a glacial state. It has been suggested that this failure may be related to their poorly resolved local mountain topography, due to their coarse spatial resolution. We examine this idea as well as the possible role of ice flow dynamics missing in GCMs. We investigate the growth of the Laurentide Ice Sheet at 115 kya by focusing on the mountain glaciers of Canada's Baffin Island, where geologic evidence indicates the last inception occurred. We use the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) in a regional, cloud-resolving configuration with resolved mountain terrain to explore how quickly Baffin Island could become glaciated with the favorable yet realizable conditions of 115 kya insolation, cool summers, and wet winters. Using the model-derived mountain glacier mass balance, we force an ice sheet model based on the shallow-ice approximation, capturing the ice flow that may be critical to the spread of ice sheets away from mountain ice caps. The ice sheet model calculates the surface area newly covered by ice and the change in the ice surface elevation, which we then use to run WRF again. Through this type of iterated asynchronous coupling, we investigate how the regional climate responds to both larger areas of ice cover and changes in ice surface elevation. In addition, we use the NOAH-MP Land model to characterize the importance of land processes, like refreezing. We find that initial ice growth on the Penny Ice Cap causes regional cooling that increases the accumulation on the Barnes Ice Cap. We investigate how ice and topography changes on Baffin Island may impact both the regional climate and the large-scale circulation.

  5. A global, high-resolution data set of ice sheet topography, cavity geometry, and ocean bathymetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaffer, Janin; Timmermann, Ralph; Arndt, Jan Erik; Savstrup Kristensen, Steen; Mayer, Christoph; Morlighem, Mathieu; Steinhage, Daniel

    2016-10-01

    The ocean plays an important role in modulating the mass balance of the polar ice sheets by interacting with the ice shelves in Antarctica and with the marine-terminating outlet glaciers in Greenland. Given that the flux of warm water onto the continental shelf and into the sub-ice cavities is steered by complex bathymetry, a detailed topography data set is an essential ingredient for models that address ice-ocean interaction. We followed the spirit of the global RTopo-1 data set and compiled consistent maps of global ocean bathymetry, upper and lower ice surface topographies, and global surface height on a spherical grid with now 30 arcsec grid spacing. For this new data set, called RTopo-2, we used the General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans (GEBCO_2014) as the backbone and added the International Bathymetric Chart of the Arctic Ocean version 3 (IBCAOv3) and the International Bathymetric Chart of the Southern Ocean (IBCSO) version 1. While RTopo-1 primarily aimed at a good and consistent representation of the Antarctic ice sheet, ice shelves, and sub-ice cavities, RTopo-2 now also contains ice topographies of the Greenland ice sheet and outlet glaciers. In particular, we aimed at a good representation of the fjord and shelf bathymetry surrounding the Greenland continent. We modified data from earlier gridded products in the areas of Petermann Glacier, Hagen Bræ, and Sermilik Fjord, assuming that sub-ice and fjord bathymetries roughly follow plausible Last Glacial Maximum ice flow patterns. For the continental shelf off Northeast Greenland and the floating ice tongue of Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden Glacier at about 79° N, we incorporated a high-resolution digital bathymetry model considering original multibeam survey data for the region. Radar data for surface topographies of the floating ice tongues of Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden Glacier and Zachariæ Isstrøm have been obtained from the data centres of Technical University of Denmark (DTU), Operation Icebridge (NASA

  6. Global Land Carbon Uptake from Trait Distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, E. E.; Datta, A.; Flores-Moreno, H.; Fazayeli, F.; Chen, M.; Wythers, K. R.; Banerjee, A.; Atkin, O. K.; Kattge, J.; Reich, P. B.

    2016-12-01

    Historically, functional diversity in land surface models has been represented through a range of plant functional types (PFTs), each of which has a single value for all of its functional traits. Here we expand the diversity of the land surface by using a distribution of trait values for each PFT. The data for these trait distributions is from a sub-set of the global database of plant traits, TRY, and this analysis uses three leaf traits: mass based nitrogen and phosphorus content and specific leaf area, which influence both photosynthesis and respiration. The data are extrapolated into continuous surfaces through two methodologies. The first, a categorical method, classifies the species observed in TRY into satellite estimates of their plant functional type abundances - analogous to how traits are currently assigned to PFTs in land surface models. Second, a Bayesian spatial method which additionally estimates how the distribution of a trait changes in accord with both climate and soil covariates. These two methods produce distinct patterns of diversity which are incorporated into a land surface model to estimate how the range of trait values affects the global land carbon budget.

  7. Toward an Improved Understanding of the Global Fresh Water Budget

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hildebrand, Peter H.

    2005-01-01

    The major components of the global fresh water cycle include the evaporation from the land and ocean surfaces, precipitation onto the Ocean and land surfaces, the net atmospheric transport of water from oceanic areas over land, and the return flow of water from the land back into the ocean. The additional components of oceanic water transport are few, principally, the mixing of fresh water through the oceanic boundary layer, transport by ocean currents, and sea ice processes. On land the situation is considerably more complex, and includes the deposition of rain and snow on land; water flow in runoff; infiltration of water into the soil and groundwater; storage of water in soil, lakes and streams, and groundwater; polar and glacial ice; and use of water in vegetation and human activities. Knowledge of the key terms in the fresh water flux budget is poor. Some components of the budget, e.g. precipitation, runoff, storage, are measured with variable accuracy across the globe. We are just now obtaining precise measurements of the major components of global fresh water storage in global ice and ground water. The easily accessible fresh water sources in rivers, lakes and snow runoff are only adequately measured in the more affluent portions of the world. presents proposals are suggesting methods of making global measurements of these quantities from space. At the same time, knowledge of the global fresh water resources under the effects of climate change is of increasing importance and the human population grows. This paper provides an overview of the state of knowledge of the global fresh water budget, evaluating the accuracy of various global water budget measuring and modeling techniques. We review the measurement capabilities of satellite instruments as compared with field validation studies and modeling approaches. Based on these analyses, and on the goal of improved knowledge of the global fresh water budget under the effects of climate change, we suggest

  8. Land–atmosphere feedbacks amplify aridity increase over land under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Alexis; Findell, Kirsten; Lintner, Benjamin; Giannini, Alessandra; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; van den Hurk, Bart; Lorenz, Ruth; Pitman, Andy; Hagemann, Stefan; Meier, Arndt; Cheruy, Frédérique; Ducharne, Agnès; Malyshev, Sergey; Milly, Paul C. D.

    2016-01-01

    The response of the terrestrial water cycle to global warming is central to issues including water resources, agriculture and ecosystem health. Recent studies indicate that aridity, defined in terms of atmospheric supply (precipitation, P) and demand (potential evapotranspiration, Ep) of water at the land surface, will increase globally in a warmer world. Recently proposed mechanisms for this response emphasize the driving role of oceanic warming and associated atmospheric processes. Here we show that the aridity response is substantially amplified by land–atmosphere feedbacks associated with the land surface’s response to climate and CO2 change. Using simulations from the Global Land Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE)-CMIP5 experiment, we show that global aridity is enhanced by the feedbacks of projected soil moisture decrease on land surface temperature, relative humidity and precipitation. The physiological impact of increasing atmospheric CO2 on vegetation exerts a qualitatively similar control on aridity. We reconcile these findings with previously proposed mechanisms by showing that the moist enthalpy change over land is unaffected by the land hydrological response. Thus, although oceanic warming constrains the combined moisture and temperature changes over land, land hydrology modulates the partitioning of this enthalpy increase towards increased aridity.

  9. Snow Grain Size Retrieval over the Polar Ice Sheets with the Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yuekui; Marshak, Alexander; Han, Mei; Palm, Stephen P.; Harding, David J.

    2016-01-01

    Snow grain size is an important parameter for cryosphere studies. As a proof of concept, this paper presents an approach to retrieve this parameter over Greenland, East and West Antarctica ice sheets from surface reflectances observed with the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) onboard the Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) at 1064 nanometers. Spaceborne lidar observations overcome many of the disadvantages in passive remote sensing, including difficulties in cloud screening and low sun angle limitations; hence tend to provide more accurate and stable retrievals. Results from the GLAS L2A campaign, which began on 25 September and lasted until 19 November, 2003, show that the mode of the grain size distribution over Greenland is the largest (approximately 300 microns) among the three, West Antarctica is the second (220 microns) and East Antarctica is the smallest (190 microns). Snow grain sizes are larger over the coastal regions compared to inland the ice sheets. These results are consistent with previous studies. Applying the broadband snow surface albedo parameterization scheme developed by Garder and Sharp (2010) to the retrieved snow grain size, ice sheet surface albedo is also derived. In the future, more accurate retrievals can be achieved with multiple wavelengths lidar observations.

  10. The Global and Local Climatic Response to the Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huybers, K. M.; Singh, H.; Steiger, N. J.; Frierson, D. M.; Steig, E. J.; Bitz, C. M.

    2014-12-01

    Glaciologists have suggested that a relatively small external forcing may compromise the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). Further, there is compelling physical evidence that the WAIS has collapsed in the past, at times when the mean global temperature was only a few degrees warmer than it is today. In addition to a rapid increase in global sea level, the collapse of the WAIS could also affect the global circulation of the atmosphere. Ice sheets are some of the largest topographic features on Earth, causing large regional anomalies in albedo and radiative balance. Our work uses idealized aquaplanet models in tandem with a fully coupled ocean/atmosphere/sea-ice model (CCSM4) to compare the atmospheric, radiative, and oceanic response to a complete loss of the WAIS. Initial findings indicate that the loss of the WAIS leads to a weakening and equator-ward shift of the zonal winds, a development of strong zonal asymmetries in the meridional wind, and a northward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. We aim to characterize how the local and global climate is affected by the presence of the WAIS, and how changes in the distribution of Southern Hemisphere ice may be represented in the proxy record.

  11. Global Geodetic Observing System: meeting the requirements of a global society on a changing planet in 2020

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Plag, Hans-Peter, 1952; Pearlman, Michael

    2009-01-01

    ..., Earth Observation on a global scale is at the heart of GGOS's activities, which contributes to Global Change research through the monitoring, as well as the modeling, of dynamic Earth processes such as, for example, mass and angular momentum exchanges, mass transport and ocean circulation, and changes in sea, land and ice surfaces. To achieve such a...

  12. GLOBAL LAND COVER CLASSIFICATION USING MODIS SURFACE REFLECTANCE PROSUCTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Fukue

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study is to develop high accuracy land cover classification algorithm for Global scale by using multi-temporal MODIS land reflectance products. In this study, time-domain co-occurrence matrix was introduced as a classification feature which provides time-series signature of land covers. Further, the non-parametric minimum distance classifier was introduced for timedomain co-occurrence matrix, which performs multi-dimensional pattern matching for time-domain co-occurrence matrices of a classification target pixel and each classification classes. The global land cover classification experiments have been conducted by applying the proposed classification method using 46 multi-temporal(in one year SR(Surface Reflectance and NBAR(Nadir BRDF-Adjusted Reflectance products, respectively. IGBP 17 land cover categories were used in our classification experiments. As the results, SR and NBAR products showed similar classification accuracy of 99%.

  13. A novel assessment of the role of land-use and land-cover change in the global carbon cycle, using a new Dynamic Global Vegetation Model version of the CABLE land surface model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haverd, Vanessa; Smith, Benjamin; Nieradzik, Lars; Briggs, Peter; Canadell, Josep

    2017-04-01

    In recent decades, terrestrial ecosystems have sequestered around 1.2 PgC y-1, an amount equivalent to 20% of fossil-fuel emissions. This land carbon flux is the net result of the impact of changing climate and CO2 on ecosystem productivity (CO2-climate driven land sink ) and deforestation, harvest and secondary forest regrowth (the land-use change (LUC) flux). The future trajectory of the land carbon flux is highly dependent upon the contributions of these processes to the net flux. However their contributions are highly uncertain, in part because the CO2-climate driven land sink and LUC components are often estimated independently, when in fact they are coupled. We provide a novel assessment of global land carbon fluxes (1800-2015) that integrates land-use effects with the effects of changing climate and CO2 on ecosystem productivity. For this, we use a new land-use enabled Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) version of the CABLE land surface model, suitable for use in attributing changes in terrestrial carbon balance, and in predicting changes in vegetation cover and associated effects on land-atmosphere exchange. In this model, land-use-change is driven by prescribed gross land-use transitions and harvest areas, which are converted to changes in land-use area and transfer of carbon between pools (soil, litter, biomass, harvested wood products and cleared wood pools). A novel aspect is the treatment of secondary woody vegetation via the coupling between the land-use module and the POP (Populations Order Physiology) module for woody demography and disturbance-mediated landscape heterogeneity. Land-use transitions to and from secondary forest tiles modify the patch age distribution within secondary-vegetated tiles, in turn affecting biomass accumulation and turnover rates and hence the magnitude of the secondary forest sink. The resulting secondary forest patch age distribution also influences the magnitude of the secondary forest harvest and clearance fluxes

  14. Dynamics of the ice mass in Antarctica in the time of warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. M. Kotlyakov

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The modern age of global warming affect the general state of the Antarctic ice sheet and its mass balance. Studies of the Southern polar region of the Earth during the International Geophysical Year  (1957–1958 called the assumption of growth in the modern ice mass in East Antarctica. However, with the development of new methods, this conclusion has been questioned. At the turn of the century the study of global processes Earth started to use the satellite radar or laser altimetry and satellite gravimetry, which allows determining change of different masses on the Earth, including ice bodies. From the beginning of the XXI century, these methods have been used to calculate the continental ice balance. In our study, we analyze different data of recent years, supporting the earlier conclusion on continued growth of the ice mass in East Antarctica. How‑ ever, in West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula, on the contrary, there is increased loss of ice, leveling the increased income of ice mass of in the Central Antarctica. So all in all in the modern era of global warm‑ ing, the ice mass in Antarctica appears to be decreasing despite some growth of the East Antarctic ice sheet. Fluctuations of land ice mass reflect in the sea level variations, but in comparison with the scale of the Ant‑ arctic ice sheet its contribution to sea‑level rise is not so significant. The main reason for this is that the mass accumulation in East Antarctica with significant probability prevails over the ice outflow.

  15. Assessing the Impact of Land Use and Land Cover Change on Global Water Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batra, N.; Yang, Y. E.; Choi, H. I.; Islam, A.; Charlotte, D. F.; Cai, X.; Kumar, P.

    2007-12-01

    Land use and land cover changes (LULCC) significantly modify the hydrological regime of the watersheds, affecting water resources and environment from regional to global scale. This study seeks to advance and integrate water and energy cycle observation, scientific understanding, and human impacts to assess future water availability. To achieve the research objective, we integrate and interpret past and current space based and in situ observations into a global hydrologic model (GHM). GHM is developed with enhanced spatial and temporal resolution, physical complexity, hydrologic theory and processes to quantify the impact of LULCC on physical variables: surface runoff, subsurface flow, groundwater, infiltration, ET, soil moisture, etc. Coupled with the common land model (CLM), a 3-dimensional volume averaged soil-moisture transport (VAST) model is expanded to incorporate the lateral flow and subgrid heterogeneity. The model consists of 11 soil-hydrology layers to predict lateral as well as vertical moisture flux transport based on Richard's equations. The primary surface boundary conditions (SBCs) include surface elevation and its derivatives, land cover category, sand and clay fraction profiles, bedrock depth and fractional vegetation cover. A consistent global GIS-based dataset is constructed for the SBCs of the model from existing observational datasets comprising of various resolutions, map projections and data formats. Global ECMWF data at 6-hour time steps for the period 1971 through 2000 is processed to get the forcing data which includes incoming longwave and shortwave radiation, precipitation, air temperature, pressure, wind components, boundary layer height and specific humidity. Land use land cover data, generated using IPCC scenarios for every 10 years from 2000 to 2100 is used for future assessment on water resources. Alterations due to LULCC on surface water balance components: ET, groundwater recharge and runoff are then addressed in the study. Land

  16. Spatial modeling of agricultural land use change at global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meiyappan, P.; Dalton, M.; O'Neill, B. C.; Jain, A. K.

    2014-11-01

    Long-term modeling of agricultural land use is central in global scale assessments of climate change, food security, biodiversity, and climate adaptation and mitigation policies. We present a global-scale dynamic land use allocation model and show that it can reproduce the broad spatial features of the past 100 years of evolution of cropland and pastureland patterns. The modeling approach integrates economic theory, observed land use history, and data on both socioeconomic and biophysical determinants of land use change, and estimates relationships using long-term historical data, thereby making it suitable for long-term projections. The underlying economic motivation is maximization of expected profits by hypothesized landowners within each grid cell. The model predicts fractional land use for cropland and pastureland within each grid cell based on socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors that change with time. The model explicitly incorporates the following key features: (1) land use competition, (2) spatial heterogeneity in the nature of driving factors across geographic regions, (3) spatial heterogeneity in the relative importance of driving factors and previous land use patterns in determining land use allocation, and (4) spatial and temporal autocorrelation in land use patterns. We show that land use allocation approaches based solely on previous land use history (but disregarding the impact of driving factors), or those accounting for both land use history and driving factors by mechanistically fitting models for the spatial processes of land use change do not reproduce well long-term historical land use patterns. With an example application to the terrestrial carbon cycle, we show that such inaccuracies in land use allocation can translate into significant implications for global environmental assessments. The modeling approach and its evaluation provide an example that can be useful to the land use, Integrated Assessment, and the Earth system modeling

  17. Observational evidence of changes in global snow and ice cover

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barry, R.G.

    1990-01-01

    Sources of observational data on recent variations in the seasonal extent of snow cover and sea ice, of the terminal position and volume of alpine glaciers, and of ground temperature profiles in areas of permafrost are briefly reviewed. Recent evidence of changes in these variables is then examined. The extent of seasonal snow cover in the Northern hemisphere and of sea ice in both hemispheres has fluctuated irregularly over the last 15-20 years with a range of about 10-15% in each case. There is no clear evidence of any recent trends, despite general global warming. In contrast, most glaciers retreated and thinned from before the turn of the century until the 1960s and alaskan permafrost temperatures have risen 2-4 C per century. Recently, glacier advances have been noted, perhaps in response to increased accumulation. Problems of linking climate forcing and snow/ice responses are discussed

  18. Exploring the sensitivity of global ocean circulation to future ice loss from Antarctica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Condron, Alan [Univ. of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA (United States); Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), Woods Hole, MA (United States)

    2017-09-30

    The sensitivity of the global ocean circulation and climate to large increases in iceberg calving and meltwater discharges from the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) are rarely studied and poorly understood. The requirement to investigate this topic is heightened by growing evidence that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is vulnerable to rapid retreat and collapse on multidecadal-to-centennial timescales. Observations collected over the last 30 years indicate that the WAIS is now losing mass at an accelerated and that a collapse may have already begun in the Amundsen Sea sector. In addition, some recent future model simulations of the AIS show the potential for rapid ice sheet retreat in the next 50 – 300 years. Such a collapse would be associated with the discharge of enormous volumes of ice and meltwater to the Southern Ocean. This project funds PI Condron to begin assessing the sensitivity of the global ocean circulation to projected increases in meltwater discharge and iceberg calving from the AIS for the next 50 – 100 years. A series of climate model simulations will determine changes in ocean circulation and temperature at the ice sheet grounding line, the role of mesoscale ocean eddies in mixing and transporting freshwater away from the continent to deep water formation regions, and the likely impact on the northward transport of heat to Europe and North America.

  19. Development of land data sets for studies of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sadowski, F.G.; Watkins, A.H.

    1991-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey has begun a major initiative to organize, produce, and distribute land data sets that will support the land data requirements of the global change science community. Satellite image data sets, produced from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer sensors, will be developed to provide repetitive, synoptic coverage of regional, continental, and global land areas. These data sets, integrated with related land data and supplemented by coregistered Landsat data sets, will enable scientists to quantify the fundamental land surface attributes that are needed to model land surface processes, to detect and monitor land surface change, and to map land cover. These well-structured, consistent land data sets will form the historical record of land observations prior to the era of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Earth Observing System sensors

  20. What Can We Learn About Glaciers and Ice Sheets From 30 Years of Landsat Imagery?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gardner, A. S.; Scambos, T.; Fahnestock, M. A.; Moholdt, G.; Nilsson, J.

    2015-12-01

    Glacier and ice sheets are known to be rapidly changing and currently account for two thirds of observed sea level rise. Attributing the causes of the rapid decline in land ice requires separation of mass change processes, i.e. accumulation of precipitation, meltwater runoff, and solid ice discharge. Here we examine a 30 year record of Landsat imagery to determine trends in glacier velocity at a global scale in an attempt to identify anomalies in glacier flow that are contributing to changes in land ice mass. The Landsat archive represents a treasure trove of information with hundreds of thousands of images acquired over glaciers and ice sheets during the past 30 years. Gleaning useful and consistent surface displacement information from a multiple sensor archive that is heavily contaminated by cloud, saturated images, poorly resolved sensor geometry, and data gaps has proved challenging. Temporal stacking of displacement fields (Dehecq et al., 2015) and correcting for unresolved topography (Roseanau et al., 2012) have been shown to greatly improve derived velocities. Here we present results from a global processing of the complete Landsat archive for information on glacier surface displacements. We highlight patterns of coherent regional change as well as well as rapid basin-scale changes in glacier flow.

  1. Accuracy assessment of seven global land cover datasets over China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yongke; Xiao, Pengfeng; Feng, Xuezhi; Li, Haixing

    2017-03-01

    Land cover (LC) is the vital foundation to Earth science. Up to now, several global LC datasets have arisen with efforts of many scientific communities. To provide guidelines for data usage over China, nine LC maps from seven global LC datasets (IGBP DISCover, UMD, GLC, MCD12Q1, GLCNMO, CCI-LC, and GlobeLand30) were evaluated in this study. First, we compared their similarities and discrepancies in both area and spatial patterns, and analysed their inherent relations to data sources and classification schemes and methods. Next, five sets of validation sample units (VSUs) were collected to calculate their accuracy quantitatively. Further, we built a spatial analysis model and depicted their spatial variation in accuracy based on the five sets of VSUs. The results show that, there are evident discrepancies among these LC maps in both area and spatial patterns. For LC maps produced by different institutes, GLC 2000 and CCI-LC 2000 have the highest overall spatial agreement (53.8%). For LC maps produced by same institutes, overall spatial agreement of CCI-LC 2000 and 2010, and MCD12Q1 2001 and 2010 reach up to 99.8% and 73.2%, respectively; while more efforts are still needed if we hope to use these LC maps as time series data for model inputting, since both CCI-LC and MCD12Q1 fail to represent the rapid changing trend of several key LC classes in the early 21st century, in particular urban and built-up, snow and ice, water bodies, and permanent wetlands. With the highest spatial resolution, the overall accuracy of GlobeLand30 2010 is 82.39%. For the other six LC datasets with coarse resolution, CCI-LC 2010/2000 has the highest overall accuracy, and following are MCD12Q1 2010/2001, GLC 2000, GLCNMO 2008, IGBP DISCover, and UMD in turn. Beside that all maps exhibit high accuracy in homogeneous regions; local accuracies in other regions are quite different, particularly in Farming-Pastoral Zone of North China, mountains in Northeast China, and Southeast Hills. Special

  2. Global achievements in sustainable land management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Motavalli

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Identification and development of sustainable land management is urgently required because of widespread resource degradation from poor land use practices. In addition, the world will need to increase food production to meet the nutritional needs of a growing global population without major environmental degradation. Ongoing climate change and its impacts on the environment is an additional factor to consider in identifying and developing sustainable land use practices. The objectives of this paper are to: (1 provide a background to the need for sustainable land management, (2 identify some of its major components, and (3 discuss some examples of sustainable land management systems that are being practiced around the world. Some common components of this type of management are: (1 understanding the ecology of land management, (2 maintenance or enhancement of land productivity, (3 maintenance of soil quality, (4 increased diversity for higher stability and resilience, (5 provision of economic and ecosystem service benefits for communities, and (6 social acceptability. Several examples of sustainable land management systems are discussed to illustrate the wide range of systems that have been developed around the world including agroforestry, conservation agriculture, and precision agricultural systems. Improved technology, allowing for geater environmental measurement and for improved access and sharing of information, provides opportunities to identify and develop more sustainable land management practices and systems for the future.

  3. Ice Sheet Roughness Estimation Based on Impulse Responses Acquired in the Global Ice Sheet Mapping Orbiter Mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niamsuwan, N.; Johnson, J. T.; Jezek, K. C.; Gogineni, P.

    2008-12-01

    The Global Ice Sheet Mapping Orbiter (GISMO) mission was developed to address scientific needs to understand the polar ice subsurface structure. This NASA Instrument Incubator Program project is a collaboration between Ohio State University, the University of Kansas, Vexcel Corporation and NASA. The GISMO design utilizes an interferometric SAR (InSAR) strategy in which ice sheet reflected signals received by a dual-antenna system are used to produce an interference pattern. The resulting interferogram can be used to filter out surface clutter so as to reveal the signals scattered from the base of the ice sheet. These signals are further processed to produce 3D-images representing basal topography of the ice sheet. In the past three years, the GISMO airborne field campaigns that have been conducted provide a set of useful data for studying geophysical properties of the Greenland ice sheet. While topography information can be obtained using interferometric SAR processing techniques, ice sheet roughness statistics can also be derived by a relatively simple procedure that involves analyzing power levels and the shape of the radar impulse response waveforms. An electromagnetic scattering model describing GISMO impulse responses has previously been proposed and validated. This model suggested that rms-heights and correlation lengths of the upper surface profile can be determined from the peak power and the decay rate of the pulse return waveform, respectively. This presentation will demonstrate a procedure for estimating the roughness of ice surfaces by fitting the GISMO impulse response model to retrieved waveforms from selected GISMO flights. Furthermore, an extension of this procedure to estimate the scattering coefficient of the glacier bed will be addressed as well. Planned future applications involving the classification of glacier bed conditions based on the derived scattering coefficients will also be described.

  4. Implications of a New Global Picture of Land Degradation (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsson, L.; Dent, D.

    2009-12-01

    Effective responses to desertification have always been hampered by a lack of a scientific understanding and reliable data on the extent and severity of land degradation. We also argue that the poor scientific understanding of desertification is partly a consequence of the lack of reliable data. Policy development has to a large extent relied upon data from the 1990 GLASOD assessment that was compiled from expert judgements. This is a map of perceptions, not measurements, that doesn't stand scrutiny and lent itself to selective interpretations. Based on the GLASOD assessment, land degradation in arid and semi-arid regions have been emphasised over other regions as hotspots of land degradation. A recent analysis of consistent, remotely-sensed data and climatic observations, using clearly-defined methods, makes allowance for droughts and global warming. It indicates that 24 per cent of land has suffered declining net primary productivity over the last 25 years; this area is home to a quarter of the world's people. When adjusted for climatic variations, the loss of primary productivity is interpreted as land degradation. In contrast to received wisdom, dry lands don't feature strongly. Forests and croplands are most affected by land degradation and protected areas fare no better than anywhere else. Unprecedented land use change is being driven not only by local processes but also by external pressures related to burgeoning population, economic & technology developments and globalisation; and unsustainable land use is causing land degradation. This suggests a need for a policy shift from desertification in dry lands to land degradation globally, and from environmental protection to developmental initiatives. The paper will discuss potential responses to land degradation that are informed by the new insights into the extent and severity of land degradation globally.

  5. Integrating global socio-economic influences into a regional land use change model for China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Xia; Gao, Qiong; Peng, Changhui; Cui, Xuefeng; Liu, Yinghui; Jiang, Li

    2014-03-01

    With rapid economic development and urbanization, land use in China has experienced huge changes in recent years; and this will probably continue in the future. Land use problems in China are urgent and need further study. Rapid land-use change and economic development make China an ideal region for integrated land use change studies, particularly the examination of multiple factors and global-regional interactions in the context of global economic integration. This paper presents an integrated modeling approach to examine the impact of global socio-economic processes on land use changes at a regional scale. We develop an integrated model system by coupling a simple global socio-economic model (GLOBFOOD) and regional spatial allocation model (CLUE). The model system is illustrated with an application to land use in China. For a given climate change, population growth, and various socio-economic situations, a global socio-economic model simulates the impact of global market and economy on land use, and quantifies changes of different land use types. The land use spatial distribution model decides the type of land use most appropriate in each spatial grid by employing a weighted suitability index, derived from expert knowledge about the ecosystem state and site conditions. A series of model simulations will be conducted and analyzed to demonstrate the ability of the integrated model to link global socioeconomic factors with regional land use changes in China. The results allow an exploration of the future dynamics of land use and landscapes in China.

  6. Atmospheric evidence for a global secular increase in carbon isotopic discrimination of land photosynthesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keeling, Ralph F.; Graven, Heather D.; Welp, Lisa R.; Resplandy, Laure; Bi, Jian; Piper, Stephen C.; Sun, Ying; Bollenbacher, Alane; Meijer, Harro A. J.

    2017-09-01

    A decrease in the 13C/12C ratio of atmospheric CO2 has been documented by direct observations since 1978 and from ice core measurements since the industrial revolution. This decrease, known as the 13C-Suess effect, is driven primarily by the input of fossil fuel-derived CO2 but is also sensitive to land and ocean carbon cycling and uptake. Using updated records, we show that no plausible combination of sources and sinks of CO2 from fossil fuel, land, and oceans can explain the observed 13C-Suess effect unless an increase has occurred in the 13C/12C isotopic discrimination of land photosynthesis. A trend toward greater discrimination under higher CO2 levels is broadly consistent with tree ring studies over the past century, with field and chamber experiments, and with geological records of C3 plants at times of altered atmospheric CO2, but increasing discrimination has not previously been included in studies of long-term atmospheric 13C/12C measurements. We further show that the inferred discrimination increase of 0.014 ± 0.007‰ ppm-1 is largely explained by photorespiratory and mesophyll effects. This result implies that, at the global scale, land plants have regulated their stomatal conductance so as to allow the CO2 partial pressure within stomatal cavities and their intrinsic water use efficiency to increase in nearly constant proportion to the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration.

  7. Globalization and Land-Use Transitions in Latin America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Ricardo. Grau

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Current socioeconomic drivers of land-use change associated with globalization are producing two contrasting land-use trends in Latin America. Increasing global food demand (particularly in Southeast Asia accelerates deforestation in areas suitable for modern agriculture (e.g., soybean, severely threatening ecosystems, such as Amazonian rain forests, dry forests, and subtropical grasslands. Additionally, in the coming decades, demand for biofuels may become an emerging threat. In contrast, high yields in modern agricultural systems and rural-urban migration coupled with remittances promote the abandonment of marginal agricultural lands, thus favoring ecosystem recovery on mountains, deserts, and areas of poor soils, while improving human well-being. The potential switch from production in traditional extensive grazing areas to intensive modern agriculture provides opportunities to significantly increase food production while sparing land for nature conservation. This combination of emerging threats and opportunities requires changes in the way the conservation of Latin American ecosystems is approached. Land-use efficiency should be analyzed beyond the local-based paradigm that drives most conservation programs, and focus on large geographic scales involving long-distance fluxes of products, information, and people in order to maximize both agricultural production and the conservation of environmental services.

  8. GLEAM version 3: Global Land Evaporation Datasets and Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martens, B.; Miralles, D. G.; Lievens, H.; van der Schalie, R.; de Jeu, R.; Fernandez-Prieto, D.; Verhoest, N.

    2015-12-01

    Terrestrial evaporation links energy, water and carbon cycles over land and is therefore a key variable of the climate system. However, the global-scale magnitude and variability of the flux, and the sensitivity of the underlying physical process to changes in environmental factors, are still poorly understood due to limitations in in situ measurements. As a result, several methods have risen to estimate global patterns of land evaporation from satellite observations. However, these algorithms generally differ in their approach to model evaporation, resulting in large differences in their estimates. One of these methods is GLEAM, the Global Land Evaporation: the Amsterdam Methodology. GLEAM estimates terrestrial evaporation based on daily satellite observations of meteorological variables, vegetation characteristics and soil moisture. Since the publication of the first version of the algorithm (2011), the model has been widely applied to analyse trends in the water cycle and land-atmospheric feedbacks during extreme hydrometeorological events. A third version of the GLEAM global datasets is foreseen by the end of 2015. Given the relevance of having a continuous and reliable record of global-scale evaporation estimates for climate and hydrological research, the establishment of an online data portal to host these data to the public is also foreseen. In this new release of the GLEAM datasets, different components of the model have been updated, with the most significant change being the revision of the data assimilation algorithm. In this presentation, we will highlight the most important changes of the methodology and present three new GLEAM datasets and their validation against in situ observations and an alternative dataset of terrestrial evaporation (ERA-Land). Results of the validation exercise indicate that the magnitude and the spatiotemporal variability of the modelled evaporation agree reasonably well with the estimates of ERA-Land and the in situ

  9. Global Precipitation Responses to Land Hydrological Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo, M.; Famiglietti, J. S.

    2012-12-01

    Several studies have established that soil moisture increases after adding a groundwater component in land surface models due to the additional supply of subsurface water. However, impacts of groundwater on the spatial-temporal variability of precipitation have received little attention. Through the coupled groundwater-land-atmosphere model (NCAR Community Atmosphere Model + Community Land Model) simulations, this study explores how groundwater representation in the model alters the precipitation spatiotemporal distributions. Results indicate that the effect of groundwater on the amount of precipitation is not globally homogeneous. Lower tropospheric water vapor increases due to the presence of groundwater in the model. The increased water vapor destabilizes the atmosphere and enhances the vertical upward velocity and precipitation in tropical convective regions. Precipitation, therefore, is inhibited in the descending branch of convection. As a result, an asymmetric dipole is produced over tropical land regions along the equator during the summer. This is analogous to the "rich-get-richer" mechanism proposed by previous studies. Moreover, groundwater also increased short-term (seasonal) and long-term (interannual) memory of precipitation for some regions with suitable groundwater table depth and found to be a function of water table depth. Based on the spatial distributions of the one-month-lag autocorrelation coefficients as well as Hurst coefficients, air-land interaction can occur from short (several months) to long (several years) time scales. This study indicates the importance of land hydrological processes in the climate system and the necessity of including the subsurface processes in the global climate models.

  10. Polar Stereographic Valid Ice Masks Derived from National Ice Center Monthly Sea Ice Climatologies, Version 1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — These valid ice masks provide a way to remove spurious ice caused by residual weather effects and land spillover in passive microwave data. They are derived from the...

  11. Global Land Use Implications of Dietary Trends: A Tragedy of the Commons

    OpenAIRE

    Anand, Madhur; Pagnutti, Chris; Bauch, Chris; Rizvi, Sarah

    2017-01-01

    Global food security and agricultural land management represent two urgent and intimately related challenges that humans must face in the coming decades. Here, we quantify the changes in the global agricultural land footprint if the world were to adhere to the dietary guidelines put forth by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), while accounting for the land use change incurred by import/export required to meet those guidelines. We analyze data at country, continent, and global ...

  12. Automated parameter tuning applied to sea ice in a global climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roach, Lettie A.; Tett, Simon F. B.; Mineter, Michael J.; Yamazaki, Kuniko; Rae, Cameron D.

    2018-01-01

    This study investigates the hypothesis that a significant portion of spread in climate model projections of sea ice is due to poorly-constrained model parameters. New automated methods for optimization are applied to historical sea ice in a global coupled climate model (HadCM3) in order to calculate the combination of parameters required to reduce the difference between simulation and observations to within the range of model noise. The optimized parameters result in a simulated sea-ice time series which is more consistent with Arctic observations throughout the satellite record (1980-present), particularly in the September minimum, than the standard configuration of HadCM3. Divergence from observed Antarctic trends and mean regional sea ice distribution reflects broader structural uncertainty in the climate model. We also find that the optimized parameters do not cause adverse effects on the model climatology. This simple approach provides evidence for the contribution of parameter uncertainty to spread in sea ice extent trends and could be customized to investigate uncertainties in other climate variables.

  13. Contextualizing the global relevance of local land change observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Magliocca, N R; Ellis, E C; Oates, T; Schmill, M

    2014-01-01

    To understand global changes in the Earth system, scientists must generalize globally from observations made locally and regionally. In land change science (LCS), local field-based observations are costly and time consuming, and generally obtained by researchers working at disparate local and regional case-study sites chosen for different reasons. As a result, global synthesis efforts in LCS tend to be based on non-statistical inferences subject to geographic biases stemming from data limitations and fragmentation. Thus, a fundamental challenge is the production of generalized knowledge that links evidence of the causes and consequences of local land change to global patterns and vice versa. The GLOBE system was designed to meet this challenge. GLOBE aims to transform global change science by enabling new scientific workflows based on statistically robust, globally relevant integration of local and regional observations using an online social-computational and geovisualization system. Consistent with the goals of Digital Earth, GLOBE has the capability to assess the global relevance of local case-study findings within the context of over 50 global biophysical, land-use, climate, and socio-economic datasets. We demonstrate the implementation of one such assessment – a representativeness analysis – with a recently published meta-study of changes in swidden agriculture in tropical forests. The analysis provides a standardized indicator to judge the global representativeness of the trends reported in the meta-study, and a geovisualization is presented that highlights areas for which sampling efforts can be reduced and those in need of further study. GLOBE will enable researchers and institutions to rapidly share, compare, and synthesize local and regional studies within the global context, as well as contributing to the larger goal of creating a Digital Earth

  14. In search of laterally heterogeneous viscosity models of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment with the ICE-6G_C global ice history model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Tanghua; Wu, Patrick; Steffen, Holger; Wang, Hansheng

    2018-05-01

    Most models of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) assume that the Earth is laterally homogeneous. However, seismic and geological observations clearly show that the Earth's mantle is laterally heterogeneous. Previous studies of GIA with lateral heterogeneity mostly focused on its effect or sensitivity on GIA predictions, and it is not clear to what extent can lateral heterogeneity solve the misfits between GIA predictions and observations. Our aim is to search for the best 3D viscosity models that can simultaneously fit the global relative sea-level (RSL) data, the peak uplift rates (u-dot from GNSS) and peak gravity-rate-of-change (g-dot from the GRACE satellite mission) in Laurentia and Fennoscandia. However, the search is dependent on the ice and viscosity model inputs - the latter depends on the background viscosity and the seismic tomography models used. In this paper, the ICE-6G_C ice model, with Bunge & Grand's seismic tomography model and background viscosity models close to VM5 will be assumed. A Coupled Laplace-Finite Element Method is used to compute gravitationally self-consistent sea level change with time dependent coastlines and rotational feedback in addition to changes in deformation, gravity and the state of stress. Several laterally heterogeneous models are found to fit the global sea level data better than laterally homogeneous models. Two of these laterally heterogeneous models also fit the ICE-6G_C peak g-dot and u-dot rates observed in Laurentia simultaneously. However, even with the introduction of lateral heterogeneity, no model that is able to fit the present-day g-dot and uplift rate data in Fennoscandia has been found. Therefore, either the ice history of ICE-6G_C in Fennoscandia and Barent Sea needs some modifications, or the sub-lithospheric property/non-thermal effect underneath northern Europe must be different from that underneath Laurentia.

  15. Open and reproducible global land use classification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nüst, Daniel; Václavík, Tomáš; Pross, Benjamin

    2015-04-01

    Researchers led by the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental research (UFZ) developed a new world map of land use systems based on over 30 diverse indicators (http://geoportal.glues.geo.tu-dresden.de/stories/landsystemarchetypes.html) of land use intensity, climate and environmental and socioeconomic factors. They identified twelve land system archetypes (LSA) using a data-driven classification algorithm (self-organizing maps) to assess global impacts of land use on the environment, and found unexpected similarities across global regions. We present how the algorithm behind this analysis can be published as an executable web process using 52°North WPS4R (https://wiki.52north.org/bin/view/Geostatistics/WPS4R) within the GLUES project (http://modul-a.nachhaltiges-landmanagement.de/en/scientific-coordination-glues/). WPS4R is an open source collaboration platform for researchers, analysts and software developers to publish R scripts (http://www.r-project.org/) as a geo-enabled OGC Web Processing Service (WPS) process. The interoperable interface to call the geoprocess allows both reproducibility of the analysis and integration of user data without knowledge about web services or classification algorithms. The open platform allows everybody to replicate the analysis in their own environments. The LSA WPS process has several input parameters, which can be changed via a simple web interface. The input parameters are used to configure both the WPS environment and the LSA algorithm itself. The encapsulation as a web process allows integration of non-public datasets, while at the same time the publication requires a well-defined documentation of the analysis. We demonstrate this platform specifically to domain scientists and show how reproducibility and open source publication of analyses can be enhanced. We also discuss future extensions of the reproducible land use classification, such as the possibility for users to enter their own areas of interest to the system and

  16. Reconstruction of Antarctic climate change using ice core proxy records from the coastal Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Thamban, M.; Laluraj, C.M.; Naik, S.S.; Chaturvedi, A.

    the austral summer of 2003. The retrieved ice core samples were labelled, packed in good quality LDPE containers and subsequently shipped in -20ºC deep freezer facilities. These cores were archived in frozen conditions in custom-made expanded polypropylene...: Glaciochemistry, Stable isotope, Ice core, Solar activity, Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica. regions offer continuous and highly resolved long-term records of reliable information on major atmospheric parameters like temperature, composition and trace gases. Among...

  17. Mapping the global land surface using 1 km AVHRR data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauer, D.T.; Eidenshink, J.C.

    1998-01-01

    The scientific requirements for mapping the global land surface using 1 km advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) data have been set forth by the U.S. Global Change Research Program; the International Geosphere Biosphere Programme (IGBP); The United Nations; the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); the Committee on Earth Observations Satellites; and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) mission to planet Earth (MTPE) program. Mapping the global land surface using 1 km AVHRR data is an international effort to acquire, archive, process, and distribute 1 km AVHRR data to meet the needs of the international science community. A network of AVHRR receiving stations, along with data recorded by NOAA, has been acquiring daily global land coverage since April 1, 1992. A data set of over 70,000 AVHRR images is archived and distributed by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) EROS Data Center, and the European Space Agency. Under the guidance of the IGBP, processing standards have been developed for calibration, atmospheric correction, geometric registration, and the production of global 10-day maximum normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) composites. The major uses of the composites are for the study of surface vegetation condition, mapping land cover, and deriving biophysical characteristics of terrestrial ecosystems. A time-series of 54 10-day global vegetation index composites for the period of April 1, 1992 through September 1993 has been produced. The production of a time-series of 33 10-day global vegetation index composites using NOAA-14 data for the period of February 1, 1995 through December 31, 1995 is underway. The data products are available from the USGS, in cooperation with NASA's MTPE program and other international organizations.

  18. Changes in Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice as a Microcosm of Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parkinson, Claire L.

    2014-01-01

    Polar sea ice is a key element of the climate system and has now been monitored through satellite observations for over three and a half decades. The satellite observations reveal considerable information about polar ice and its changes since the late 1970s, including a prominent downward trend in Arctic sea ice coverage and a much lesser upward trend in Antarctic sea ice coverage, illustrative of the important fact that climate change entails spatial contrasts. The decreasing ice coverage in the Arctic corresponds well with contemporaneous Arctic warming and exhibits particularly large decreases in the summers of 2007 and 2012, influenced by both preconditioning and atmospheric conditions. The increasing ice coverage in the Antarctic is not as readily explained, but spatial differences in the Antarctic trends suggest a possible connection with atmospheric circulation changes that have perhaps been influenced by the Antarctic ozone hole. The changes in the polar ice covers and the issues surrounding those changes have many commonalities with broader climate changes and their surrounding issues, allowing the sea ice changes to be viewed in some important ways as a microcosm of global climate change.

  19. Global Tree Cover and Biomass Carbon on Agricultural Land: The contribution of agroforestry to global and national carbon budgets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zomer, Robert J; Neufeldt, Henry; Xu, Jianchu; Ahrends, Antje; Bossio, Deborah; Trabucco, Antonio; van Noordwijk, Meine; Wang, Mingcheng

    2016-07-20

    Agroforestry systems and tree cover on agricultural land make an important contribution to climate change mitigation, but are not systematically accounted for in either global carbon budgets or national carbon accounting. This paper assesses the role of trees on agricultural land and their significance for carbon sequestration at a global level, along with recent change trends. Remote sensing data show that in 2010, 43% of all agricultural land globally had at least 10% tree cover and that this has increased by 2% over the previous ten years. Combining geographically and bioclimatically stratified Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier 1 default estimates of carbon storage with this tree cover analysis, we estimated 45.3 PgC on agricultural land globally, with trees contributing >75%. Between 2000 and 2010 tree cover increased by 3.7%, resulting in an increase of >2 PgC (or 4.6%) of biomass carbon. On average, globally, biomass carbon increased from 20.4 to 21.4 tC ha(-1). Regional and country-level variation in stocks and trends were mapped and tabulated globally, and for all countries. Brazil, Indonesia, China and India had the largest increases in biomass carbon stored on agricultural land, while Argentina, Myanmar, and Sierra Leone had the largest decreases.

  20. Modelling seasonal meltwater forcing of the velocity of land-terminating margins of the Greenland Ice Sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koziol, Conrad P.; Arnold, Neil

    2018-03-01

    Surface runoff at the margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) drains to the ice-sheet bed, leading to enhanced summer ice flow. Ice velocities show a pattern of early summer acceleration followed by mid-summer deceleration due to evolution of the subglacial hydrology system in response to meltwater forcing. Modelling the integrated hydrological-ice dynamics system to reproduce measured velocities at the ice margin remains a key challenge for validating the present understanding of the system and constraining the impact of increasing surface runoff rates on dynamic ice mass loss from the GrIS. Here we show that a multi-component model incorporating supraglacial, subglacial, and ice dynamic components applied to a land-terminating catchment in western Greenland produces modelled velocities which are in reasonable agreement with those observed in GPS records for three melt seasons of varying melt intensities. This provides numerical support for the hypothesis that the subglacial system develops analogously to alpine glaciers and supports recent model formulations capturing the transition between distributed and channelized states. The model shows the growth of efficient conduit-based drainage up-glacier from the ice sheet margin, which develops more extensively, and further inland, as melt intensity increases. This suggests current trends of decadal-timescale slowdown of ice velocities in the ablation zone may continue in the near future. The model results also show a strong scaling between average summer velocities and melt season intensity, particularly in the upper ablation area. Assuming winter velocities are not impacted by channelization, our model suggests an upper bound of a 25 % increase in annual surface velocities as surface melt increases to 4 × present levels.

  1. Sustainable Land Governance in Support of the Global Agenda

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Enemark, Stig

    strategies in support of sustainable development. This paper provides an overall understanding of the land management paradigm in this regard. Land governance and administration support the global agenda through addressing the key challenges of our time such as climate change, poverty reduction, human rights......, rapid urban growth, and the post 2015 Sustainable Development Goals. Land Governance and administration therefore need high-level political support and recognition. This relates especially to developing countries where there is an urgent need to build simple and “fit-for-purpose” land administration...

  2. Mapping Impervious Surfaces Globally at 30m Resolution Using Landsat Global Land Survey Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown de Colstoun, E.; Huang, C.; Wolfe, R. E.; Tan, B.; Tilton, J.; Smith, S.; Phillips, J.; Wang, P.; Ling, P.; Zhan, J.; Xu, X.; Taylor, M. P.

    2013-12-01

    Impervious surfaces, mainly artificial structures and roads, cover less than 1% of the world's land surface (1.3% over USA). Regardless of the relatively small coverage, impervious surfaces have a significant impact on the environment. They are the main source of the urban heat island effect, and affect not only the energy balance, but also hydrology and carbon cycling, and both land and aquatic ecosystem services. In the last several decades, the pace of converting natural land surface to impervious surfaces has increased. Quantitatively monitoring the growth of impervious surface expansion and associated urbanization has become a priority topic across both the physical and social sciences. The recent availability of consistent, global scale data sets at 30m resolution such as the Global Land Survey from the Landsat satellites provides an unprecedented opportunity to map global impervious cover and urbanization at this resolution for the first time, with unprecedented detail and accuracy. Moreover, the spatial resolution of Landsat is absolutely essential to accurately resolve urban targets such a buildings, roads and parking lots. With long term GLS data now available for the 1975, 1990, 2000, 2005 and 2010 time periods, the land cover/use changes due to urbanization can now be quantified at this spatial scale as well. In the Global Land Survey - Imperviousness Mapping Project (GLS-IMP), we are producing the first global 30 m spatial resolution impervious cover data set. We have processed the GLS 2010 data set to surface reflectance (8500+ TM and ETM+ scenes) and are using a supervised classification method using a regression tree to produce continental scale impervious cover data sets. A very large set of accurate training samples is the key to the supervised classifications and is being derived through the interpretation of high spatial resolution (~2 m or less) commercial satellite data (Quickbird and Worldview2) available to us through the unclassified

  3. Ice sheets as a significant source of highly reactive nanoparticulate iron to the oceans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawkings, Jon R; Wadham, Jemma L; Tranter, Martyn; Raiswell, Rob; Benning, Liane G; Statham, Peter J; Tedstone, Andrew; Nienow, Peter; Lee, Katherine; Telling, Jon

    2014-05-21

    The Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets cover ~ 10% of global land surface, but are rarely considered as active components of the global iron cycle. The ocean waters around both ice sheets harbour highly productive coastal ecosystems, many of which are iron limited. Measurements of iron concentrations in subglacial runoff from a large Greenland Ice Sheet catchment reveal the potential for globally significant export of labile iron fractions to the near-coastal euphotic zone. We estimate that the flux of bioavailable iron associated with glacial runoff is 0.40-2.54 Tg per year in Greenland and 0.06-0.17 Tg per year in Antarctica. Iron fluxes are dominated by a highly reactive and potentially bioavailable nanoparticulate suspended sediment fraction, similar to that identified in Antarctic icebergs. Estimates of labile iron fluxes in meltwater are comparable with aeolian dust fluxes to the oceans surrounding Greenland and Antarctica, and are similarly expected to increase in a warming climate with enhanced melting.

  4. Indicators of the Legal Security of Indigenous and Community Lands. Data file from LandMark: The Global Platform of Indigenous and Community Lands.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tagliarino, Nicholas Korte

    2016-01-01

    L. Alden Wily, N. Tagliarino, Harvard Law and International Development Society (LIDS), A. Vidal, C. Salcedo-La Vina, S. Ibrahim, and B. Almeida. 2016. Indicators of the Legal Security of Indigenous and Community Lands. Data file from LandMark: The Global Platform of Indigenous and Community Lands.

  5. The influence of ice sheets on temperature during the past 38 million years inferred from a one-dimensional ice sheet-climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stap, Lennert B.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.; de Boer, Bas; Bintanja, Richard; Lourens, Lucas J.

    2017-09-01

    Since the inception of the Antarctic ice sheet at the Eocene-Oligocene transition (˜ 34 Myr ago), land ice has played a crucial role in Earth's climate. Through feedbacks in the climate system, land ice variability modifies atmospheric temperature changes induced by orbital, topographical, and greenhouse gas variations. Quantification of these feedbacks on long timescales has hitherto scarcely been undertaken. In this study, we use a zonally averaged energy balance climate model bidirectionally coupled to a one-dimensional ice sheet model, capturing the ice-albedo and surface-height-temperature feedbacks. Potentially important transient changes in topographic boundary conditions by tectonics and erosion are not taken into account but are briefly discussed. The relative simplicity of the coupled model allows us to perform integrations over the past 38 Myr in a fully transient fashion using a benthic oxygen isotope record as forcing to inversely simulate CO2. Firstly, we find that the results of the simulations over the past 5 Myr are dependent on whether the model run is started at 5 or 38 Myr ago. This is because the relation between CO2 and temperature is subject to hysteresis. When the climate cools from very high CO2 levels, as in the longer transient 38 Myr run, temperatures in the lower CO2 range of the past 5 Myr are higher than when the climate is initialised at low temperatures. Consequently, the modelled CO2 concentrations depend on the initial state. Taking the realistic warm initialisation into account, we come to a best estimate of CO2, temperature, ice-volume-equivalent sea level, and benthic δ18O over the past 38 Myr. Secondly, we study the influence of ice sheets on the evolution of global temperature and polar amplification by comparing runs with ice sheet-climate interaction switched on and off. By passing only albedo or surface height changes to the climate model, we can distinguish the separate effects of the ice-albedo and surface

  6. Landsat: A global land-imaging mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    2012-01-01

    Across four decades since 1972, Landsat satellites have continuously acquired space-based images of the Earth's land surface, coastal shallows, and coral reefs. The Landsat Program, a joint effort of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), was established to routinely gather land imagery from space. NASA develops remote-sensing instruments and spacecraft, then launches and validates the performance of the instruments and satellites. The USGS then assumes ownership and operation of the satellites, in addition to managing all ground reception, data archiving, product generation, and distribution. The result of this program is a long-term record of natural and human induced changes on the global landscape.

  7. Polar Ice Caps: a Canary for the Greenland Ice Sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honsaker, W.; Lowell, T. V.; Sagredo, E.; Kelly, M. A.; Hall, B. L.

    2010-12-01

    Ice caps are glacier masses that are highly sensitive to climate change. Because of their hypsometry they can have a binary state. When relatively slight changes in the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) either intersect or rise above the land the ice can become established or disappear. Thus these upland ice masses have a fast response time. Here we consider a way to extract the ELA signal from independent ice caps adjacent to the Greenland Ice Sheet margin. It may be that these ice caps are sensitive trackers of climate change that also impact the ice sheet margin. One example is the Istorvet Ice Cap located in Liverpool Land, East Greenland (70.881°N, 22.156°W). The ice cap topography and the underlying bedrock surface dips to the north, with peak elevation of the current ice ranging in elevation from 1050 to 745 m.a.s.l. On the eastern side of the ice mass the outlet glaciers extending down to sea level. The western margin has several small lobes in topographic depressions, with the margin reaching down to 300 m.a.s.l. Topographic highs separate the ice cap into at least 5 main catchments, each having a pair of outlet lobes toward either side of the ice cap. Because of the regional bedrock slope each catchment has its own elevation range. Therefore, as the ELA changes it is possible for some catchments of the ice cap to experience positive mass balance while others have a negative balance. Based on weather observations we estimate the present day ELA to be ~1000 m.a.s.l, meaning mass balance is negative for the majority of the ice cap. By tracking glacier presence/absence in these different catchments, we can reconstruct small changes in the ELA. Another example is the High Ice Cap (informal name) in Milne Land (70.903°N, 25.626°W, 1080 m), East Greenland. Here at least 4 unconformities in ice layers found near the southern margin of the ice cap record changing intervals of accumulation and ablation. Therefore, this location may also be sensitive to slight

  8. Global warming: A vicious circle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sinclair, J.

    1991-01-01

    As a result of increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases the planet is already committed to regional droughts, storms, disruption of fisheries and the extinction of many plant and animal species. But current predictions of global warming do not take into account the reactions and interactions of the planet's land, ocean and ice masses to the rise in temperatures. It seems likely that the greenhouse effect will give rise to positive feedback reactions, leading to greater global warming than predicted

  9. Global land-use and market interactions between climate and bioenergy policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golub, A.; Hertel, T. W.; Rose, S. K.

    2011-12-01

    Over the past few years, interest in bioenergy has boomed with higher oil prices and concerns about energy security, farm incomes, and mitigation of climate change. Large-scale commercial bioenergy production could have far reaching implications for regional and global land use and output markets associated with food, forestry, chemical, and energy sectors, as well as household welfare. Similarly, there is significant interest in international agricultural and forestry based carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policies, which could also provide revenue to developing countries and farmers in exchange for modifying land management practices. However, bioenergy and climate policies are being formulated largely independent of one another. Understanding the interaction between these potentially competing policy objectives is important for identifying possible constraints that one policy might place on the other, potential complementarities that could be exploited in policy design, and net land-use change and management implications over time. This study develops a new dynamic global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model GDyn-E-AEZ to assess the interaction between biofuels production and climate mitigation policies. The model is built on several existing CGE platforms, including 1) GTAP-AEZ-GHG model (Golub et al., 2009), 2) GTAP-BIO (Birur et al., 2008; Taheripour and Tyner, 2011), and 3) GDyn framework (Ianchovichina and McDougall, 2001) extended to investigate the role of population and per capita income growth, changing consumption patterns, and global economic integration in determining long-run patterns of land-use change. The new model is used to assess the effects of domestic and global bioenergy expansion on future land use, as well as sectoral, regional and global GHG emissions mitigation potential. Do bioenergy programs facilitate or constrain GHG mitigation opportunities? For instance, Golub et al. (2009) estimate substantial GHG

  10. Academic Globalization: Cultureactive to Ice- the Cross-Cultural, Crossdisciplinary and Cross-Epistemological Transformation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marta Szabo White

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Commensurate with the concept of Academic Globalization, coupled with the foray of Globalization, this paper underscores the cross-cultural, cross-disciplinary and cross-epistemological transformation from the first-generation Cultureactive to the second-generation InterCultural Edge [ICE]. The former is embedded in the experiential works of cross-cultural consultant. Richard Lewis and the latter is grounded in established theoretical frameworks. Both serve to underscore the impact of the Globalization Phenomenon, as manifested in and enabled by the acceleration of academic and practitioner cross-cultural activities. The contribution of this paper is the celebration of the longawaited arrival of ICE [InterCultural Edge]. While previous research streams have underscored global similarities and differences among cultures, a previous paper [19] established that cross-professional rather than cross-cultural differences are more paramount. Employing Cultureactive and the LMR framework, it was noted that business versus non-business predisposition had a more direct impact on one's individual cultural profile than did nationality. Regardless of culture, persons involved in business are characterized primarily by linear-active modes of communication, and persons involved in non-business activities typically employ more multiactive/hybrid and less linear modes of communication. The pivotal question is this: Now that we have a new and improved tool, are we in a better position to assess and predict leadership, negotiating styles, individual behaviors, etc., which are central to academic globalization and preparing global business leaders?

  11. Lightning and 85-GHz MCSs in the Global Tropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toracinta, E. Richard; Zipser, E. J.

    1999-01-01

    Numerous observations of tropical convection show that tropical continental mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are much more prolific lightning producers than their oceanic counterparts. Satellite-based climatologies using 85-GHz passive microwave ice-scattering signatures from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) indicate that MCSs of various size and intensity are found throughout the global tropics. In contrast, global lightning distributions show a strong land bias with an order of magnitude difference between land and ocean lightning. This is somewhat puzzling, since 85-GHz ice-scattering and the charge separation processes that lead to lightning are both thought to depend upon the existence of large graupel particles. The fact that low 85-GHz brightness temperatures are observed in tropical oceanic MCSs containing virtually no lightning leads to the postulate that tropical oceanic and tropical continental MCSs have fundamentally different hydrometeor profiles through the mixed phase region of the cloud (0 C Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS), and the first space-borne radar, facilitates high-resolution case studies of MCS structure throughout the global tropics. An important precursor, however, is to better understand the distribution of MCSs and lightning in the tropics. With that objective in mind, this research undertakes a systematic comparison of 85-GHz-defined MCSs and lightning over the global tropics for a full year, as an initial step toward quantifying differences between land and ocean convective systems.

  12. Albedo enhancement over land to counteract global warming: impacts on hydrological cycle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bala, Govindasamy; Nag, Bappaditya [Indian Institute of Science, Divecha Center for Climate Change and Center for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Bangalore (India)

    2012-09-15

    A recent modelling study has shown that precipitation and runoff over land would increase when the reflectivity of marine clouds is increased to counter global warming. This implies that large scale albedo enhancement over land could lead to a decrease in runoff over land. In this study, we perform simulations using NCAR CAM3.1 that have implications for Solar Radiation Management geoengineering schemes that increase the albedo over land. We find that an increase in reflectivity over land that mitigates the global mean warming from a doubling of CO{sub 2} leads to a large residual warming in the southern hemisphere and cooling in the northern hemisphere since most of the land is located in northern hemisphere. Precipitation and runoff over land decrease by 13.4 and 22.3%, respectively, because of a large residual sinking motion over land triggered by albedo enhancement over land. Soil water content also declines when albedo over land is enhanced. The simulated magnitude of hydrological changes over land are much larger when compared to changes over oceans in the recent marine cloud albedo enhancement study since the radiative forcing over land needed (-8.2 W m{sup -2}) to counter global mean radiative forcing from a doubling of CO{sub 2} (3.3 W m{sup -2}) is approximately twice the forcing needed over the oceans (-4.2 W m{sup -2}). Our results imply that albedo enhancement over oceans produce climates closer to the unperturbed climate state than do albedo changes on land when the consequences on land hydrology are considered. Our study also has important implications for any intentional or unintentional large scale changes in land surface albedo such as deforestation/afforestation/reforestation, air pollution, and desert and urban albedo modification. (orig.)

  13. Global protected area expansion is compromised by projected land-use and parochialism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montesino Pouzols, Federico; Toivonen, Tuuli; Di Minin, Enrico; Kukkala, Aija S; Kullberg, Peter; Kuusterä, Johanna; Lehtomäki, Joona; Tenkanen, Henrikki; Verburg, Peter H; Moilanen, Atte

    2014-12-18

    Protected areas are one of the main tools for halting the continuing global biodiversity crisis caused by habitat loss, fragmentation and other anthropogenic pressures. According to the Aichi Biodiversity Target 11 adopted by the Convention on Biological Diversity, the protected area network should be expanded to at least 17% of the terrestrial world by 2020 (http://www.cbd.int/sp/targets). To maximize conservation outcomes, it is crucial to identify the best expansion areas. Here we show that there is a very high potential to increase protection of ecoregions and vertebrate species by expanding the protected area network, but also identify considerable risk of ineffective outcomes due to land-use change and uncoordinated actions between countries. We use distribution data for 24,757 terrestrial vertebrates assessed under the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) 'red list of threatened species', and terrestrial ecoregions (827), modified by land-use models for the present and 2040, and introduce techniques for global and balanced spatial conservation prioritization. First, we show that with a coordinated global protected area network expansion to 17% of terrestrial land, average protection of species ranges and ecoregions could triple. Second, if projected land-use change by 2040 (ref. 11) takes place, it becomes infeasible to reach the currently possible protection levels, and over 1,000 threatened species would lose more than 50% of their present effective ranges worldwide. Third, we demonstrate a major efficiency gap between national and global conservation priorities. Strong evidence is shown that further biodiversity loss is unavoidable unless international action is quickly taken to balance land-use and biodiversity conservation. The approach used here can serve as a framework for repeatable and quantitative assessment of efficiency, gaps and expansion of the global protected area network globally, regionally and nationally, considering

  14. Sea level and global ice volumes from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambeck, Kurt; Rouby, Hélène; Purcell, Anthony; Sun, Yiying; Sambridge, Malcolm

    2014-10-28

    The major cause of sea-level change during ice ages is the exchange of water between ice and ocean and the planet's dynamic response to the changing surface load. Inversion of ∼1,000 observations for the past 35,000 y from localities far from former ice margins has provided new constraints on the fluctuation of ice volume in this interval. Key results are: (i) a rapid final fall in global sea level of ∼40 m in sea level, the main phase of deglaciation occurred from ∼16.5 ka BP to ∼8.2 ka BP at an average rate of rise of 12 m⋅ka(-1) punctuated by periods of greater, particularly at 14.5-14.0 ka BP at ≥40 mm⋅y(-1) (MWP-1A), and lesser, from 12.5 to 11.5 ka BP (Younger Dryas), rates; (iv) no evidence for a global MWP-1B event at ∼11.3 ka BP; and (v) a progressive decrease in the rate of rise from 8.2 ka to ∼2.5 ka BP, after which ocean volumes remained nearly constant until the renewed sea-level rise at 100-150 y ago, with no evidence of oscillations exceeding ∼15-20 cm in time intervals ≥200 y from 6 to 0.15 ka BP.

  15. Global warming related transient albedo feedback in the Arctic and its relation to the seasonality of sea ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andry, Olivier; Bintanja, Richard; Hazeleger, Wilco

    2015-04-01

    The Arctic is warming two to three times faster than the global average. Arctic sea ice cover is very sensitive to this warming and has reached historic minima in late summer in recent years (i.e. 2007, 2012). Considering that the Arctic Ocean is mainly ice-covered and that the albedo of sea ice is very high compared to that of open water, the change in sea ice cover is very likely to have a strong impact on the local surface albedo feedback. Here we quantify the temporal changes in surface albedo feedback in response to global warming. Usually feedbacks are evaluated as being representative and constant for long time periods, but we show here that the strength of climate feedbacks in fact varies strongly with time. For instance, time series of the amplitude of the surface albedo feedback, derived from future climate simulations (CIMP5, RCP8.5 up to year 2300) using a kernel method, peaks around the year 2100. This maximum is likely caused by an increased seasonality in sea-ice cover that is inherently associated with sea ice retreat. We demonstrate that the Arctic average surface albedo has a strong seasonal signature with a maximum in spring and a minimum in late summer/autumn. In winter when incoming solar radiation is minimal the surface albedo doesn't have an important effect on the energy balance of the climate system. The annual mean surface albedo is thus determined by the seasonality of both downwelling shortwave radiation and sea ice cover. As sea ice cover reduces the seasonal signature is modified, the transient part from maximum sea ice cover to its minimum is shortened and sharpened. The sea ice cover is reduced when downwelling shortwave radiation is maximum and thus the annual surface albedo is drastically smaller. Consequently the change in annual surface albedo with time will become larger and so will the surface albedo feedback. We conclude that a stronger seasonality in sea ice leads to a stronger surface albedo feedback, which accelerates

  16. The influence of ice sheets on temperature during the past 38 million years inferred from a one-dimensional ice sheet-climate model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stap, Lennert B.; Van De Wal, Roderik S.W.; De Boer, Bas; Bintanja, Richard; Lourens, Lucas J.

    2017-01-01

    Since the inception of the Antarctic ice sheet at the Eocene-Oligocene transition ( ~34 Myr ago), land ice has played a crucial role in Earth's climate. Through feedbacks in the climate system, land ice variability modifies atmospheric temperature changes induced by orbital, topographical, and

  17. Improved ice loss estimate of the northwestern Greenland ice sheet

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kjeldsen, K.K.; Khan, S.A.; van den Broeke, M.R.; van Angelen, J.H.

    2013-01-01

    We estimate ice volume change rates in the northwest Greenland drainage basin during 2003–2009 using Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) laser altimeter data. Elevation changes are often reported to be largest near the frontal portion of outlet glaciers. To improve the volume change

  18. Interaction of ice sheets and climate on geological time scales

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stap, L.B.

    2017-01-01

    Since the inception of the Antarctic ice sheet at the Eocene-Oligocene Transition (~34 Myr ago), land ice plays a crucial role in Earth’s climate. Through the ice-albedo and surface-height-temperature feedbacks, land ice variability strengthens atmospheric temperature changes induced by orbital and

  19. Recent Changes in Land Water Storage and Its Contribution to Sea Level Variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wada, Yoshihide; Reager, John T.; Chao, Benjamin F.; Wang, Jida; Lo, Min-Hui; Song, Chunqiao; Li, Yuwen; Gardner, Alex S.

    2016-01-01

    Sea level rise is generally attributed to increased ocean heat content and increased rates glacier and ice melt. However, human transformations of Earth's surface have impacted water exchange between land, atmosphere, and ocean, ultimately affecting global sea level variations. Impoundment of water in reservoirs and artificial lakes has reduced the outflow of water to the sea, while river runoff has increased due to groundwater mining, wetland and endorheic lake storage losses, and deforestation. In addition, climate-driven changes in land water stores can have a large impact on global sea level variations over decadal timescales. Here, we review each component of negative and positive land water contribution separately in order to highlight and understand recent changes in land water contribution to sea level variations.

  20. Towards realistic Holocene land cover scenarios: integration of archaeological, palynological and geomorphological records and comparison to global land cover scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Brue, Hanne; Verstraeten, Gert; Broothaerts, Nils; Notebaert, Bastiaan

    2016-04-01

    Accurate and spatially explicit landscape reconstructions for distinct time periods in human history are essential for the quantification of the effect of anthropogenic land cover changes on, e.g., global biogeochemical cycles, ecology, and geomorphic processes, and to improve our understanding of interaction between humans and the environment in general. A long-term perspective covering Mid and Late Holocene land use changes is recommended in this context, as it provides a baseline to evaluate human impact in more recent periods. Previous efforts to assess the evolution and intensity of agricultural land cover in past centuries or millennia have predominantly focused on palynological records. An increasing number of quantitative techniques has been developed during the last two decades to transfer palynological data to land cover estimates. However, these techniques have to deal with equifinality issues and, furthermore, do not sufficiently allow to reconstruct spatial patterns of past land cover. On the other hand, several continental and global databases of historical anthropogenic land cover changes based on estimates of global population and the required agricultural land per capita have been developed in the past decennium. However, at such long temporal and spatial scales, reconstruction of past anthropogenic land cover intensities and spatial patterns necessarily involves many uncertainties and assumptions as well. Here, we present a novel approach that combines archaeological, palynological and geomorphological data for the Dijle catchment in the central Belgium Loess Belt in order to arrive at more realistic Holocene land cover histories. Multiple land cover scenarios (> 60.000) are constructed using probabilistic rules and used as input into a sediment delivery model (WaTEM/SEDEM). Model outcomes are confronted with a detailed geomorphic dataset on Holocene sediment fluxes and with REVEALS based estimates of vegetation cover using palynological data from

  1. Glacier Land Ice Measurements from Space (GLIMS) and the GLIMS Information Management System at NSIDC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machado, A. E.; Scharfen, G. R.; Barry, R. G.; Khalsa, S. S.; Raup, B.; Swick, R.; Troisi, V. J.; Wang, I.

    2001-12-01

    GLIMS (Global Land Ice Measurements from Space) is an international project to survey a majority of the world's glaciers with the accuracy and precision needed to assess recent changes and determine trends in glacial environments. This will be accomplished by: comprehensive periodic satellite measurements, coordinated distribution of screened image data, analysis of images at worldwide Regional Centers, validation of analyses, and a publicly accessible database. The primary data source will be from the ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and reflection Radiometer) instrument aboard the EOS Terra spacecraft, and Landsat ETM+ (Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus), currently in operation. Approximately 700 ASTER images have been acquired with GLIMS gain settings as of mid-2001. GLIMS is a collaborative effort with the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the National Aeronautics Space Adminstration (NASA), other U.S. Federal Agencies and a group of internationally distributed glaciologists at Regional Centers of expertise. The National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) is developing the information management system for GLIMS. We will ingest and maintain GLIMS-analyzed glacier data from Regional Centers and provide access to the data via the World Wide Web. The GLIMS database will include measurements (over time) of glacier length, area, boundaries, topography, surface velocity vectors, and snowline elevation, derived primarily from remote sensing data. The GLIMS information management system at NSIDC will provide an easy to use and widely accessible service for the glaciological community and other users needing information about the world's glaciers. The structure of the international GLIMS consortium, status of database development, sample imagery and derived analyses and user search and order interfaces will be demonstrated. More information on GLIMS is available at: http://www.glims.org/.

  2. Can polar bears use terrestrial foods to offset lost ice-based hunting opportunities?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rode, Karyn D.; Robbins, Charles T.; Nelson, Lynne; Amstrup, Steven C.

    2015-01-01

    Increased land use by polar bears (Ursus maritimus) due to climate-change-induced reduction of their sea-ice habitat illustrates the impact of climate change on species distributions and the difficulty of conserving a large, highly specialized carnivore in the face of this global threat. Some authors have suggested that terrestrial food consumption by polar bears will help them withstand sea-ice loss as they are forced to spend increasing amounts of time on land. Here, we evaluate the nutritional needs of polar bears as well as the physiological and environmental constraints that shape their use of terrestrial ecosystems. Only small numbers of polar bears have been documented consuming terrestrial foods even in modest quantities. Over much of the polar bear's range, limited terrestrial food availability supports only low densities of much smaller, resident brown bears (Ursus arctos), which use low-quality resources more efficiently and may compete with polar bears in these areas. Where consumption of terrestrial foods has been documented, polar bear body condition and survival rates have declined even as land use has increased. Thus far, observed consumption of terrestrial food by polar bears has been insufficient to offset lost ice-based hunting opportunities but can have ecological consequences for other species. Warming-induced loss of sea ice remains the primary threat faced by polar bears.

  3. Global and regional drivers of land-use emissions 1961-2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, S. J.; Burney, J. A.; Pongratz, J.; Hansis, E.

    2017-12-01

    Historically, human land use, including conversion of natural landscapes, has disrupted ecosystems worldwide, degraded global biodiversity, and added tremendous quantities of greenhouse gases (GHGs) to the atmosphere1-5. Yet, in contrast to fossil fuel emissions, trends and drivers of land use and related GHG emissions are usually assessed only for specific regions, processes, or products. Here, we present a comprehensive, country-level inventory of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from land use and land-use change from 1961-2013, decompose the demographic, economic and technical drivers of these emissions, and assess the sensitivity of results to different units of measurement and accounting assumptions. Globally, annual land use emissions (CO2-eq) have decreased between 1961 and 2013 (-32% in our central case), reflecting a balance between steady increases in agricultural production per capita (+42%) and equally persistent declines in the land required per unit of agricultural production (-65%), and emissions per area of land used (-41%). A few regions, processes, and products account for the majority of land use emissions: Latin America, Southeast Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa represent 55% of net cumulative emissions 1961-2013, conversion to cropland and pasture and enteric fermentation represent 103%, and cereal, dairy and beef products together represent 83%. Our results suggest that the emissions intensity of agricultural production is a particularly important indicator of agriculture's climate impact, where targeted reductions could substantially reduce that impact.

  4. The global influence of dust mineralogical composition on heterogeneous ice nucleation in mixed-phase clouds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoose, C; Lohmann, U; Erdin, R; Tegen, I

    2008-01-01

    Mineral dust is the dominant natural ice nucleating aerosol. Its ice nucleation efficiency depends on the mineralogical composition. We show the first sensitivity studies with a global climate model and a three-dimensional dust mineralogy. Results show that, depending on the dust mineralogical composition, coating with soluble material from anthropogenic sources can lead to quasi-deactivation of natural dust ice nuclei. This effect counteracts the increased cloud glaciation by anthropogenic black carbon particles. The resulting aerosol indirect effect through the glaciation of mixed-phase clouds by black carbon particles is small (+0.1 W m -2 in the shortwave top-of-the-atmosphere radiation in the northern hemisphere)

  5. Morphometric Characteristics of Ice and Snow in the Arctic Basin: Aircraft Landing Observations from the Former Soviet Union, 1928-1989

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set contains sea ice and snow measurements collected during aircraft landings associated with the Soviet Union's historical Sever airborne and North Pole...

  6. AMSR-E/Aqua Monthly Global Microwave Land Surface Emissivity

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set is a global land emissivity product using passive microwave observations from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - Earth Observing System...

  7. Land Use Change and Global Adaptations to Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roxana Juliá

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper uses the World Trade Model with Climate Sensitive Land (WTMCL to evaluate possible future land-use changes associated with adaptations to climate change in a globalized world. In this approach, changes in regional agricultural production, which are based on comparative advantage, define patterns of land use change in agriculture in all regions of the world. We evaluate four scenarios that combine assumptions about future increases in food demand and future changes in land endowments of different productivities associated with climatic conditions: each scenario generates distinct patterns of regional specialization in the production of agricultural commodities and associated land-use change. The analysis also projects future food availability under the simulated conditions and the direction of likely changes in prices of the major agricultural commodity groups.

  8. Effect of retreating sea ice on Arctic cloud cover in simulated recent global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Abe

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the effect of sea ice reduction on Arctic cloud cover in historical simulations with the coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model MIROC5. Arctic sea ice has been substantially retreating since the 1980s, particularly in September, under simulated global warming conditions. The simulated sea ice reduction is consistent with satellite observations. On the other hand, Arctic cloud cover has been increasing in October, with about a 1-month lag behind the sea ice reduction. The delayed response leads to extensive sea ice reductions because the heat and moisture fluxes from the underlying open ocean into the atmosphere are enhanced. Sensitivity experiments with the atmospheric part of MIROC5 clearly show that sea ice reduction causes increases in cloud cover. Arctic cloud cover increases primarily in the lower troposphere, but it decreases in the near-surface layers just above the ocean; predominant temperature rises in these near-surface layers cause drying (i.e., decreases in relative humidity, despite increasing moisture flux. Cloud radiative forcing due to increases in cloud cover in autumn brings an increase in the surface downward longwave radiation (DLR by approximately 40–60 % compared to changes in clear-sky surface DLR in fall. These results suggest that an increase in Arctic cloud cover as a result of reduced sea ice coverage may bring further sea ice retreat and enhance the feedback processes of Arctic warming.

  9. A Continuously Updated, Global Land Classification Map, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — We propose to demonstrate a fully automatic capability for generating a global, high resolution (30 m) land classification map, with continuous updates from...

  10. Final scientific report for DOE award title: Improving the Representation of Ice Sedimentation Rates in Global Climate Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mitchell, David L. [Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV (United States)

    2013-09-05

    It is well known that cirrus clouds play a major role in regulating the earth’s climate, but the details of how this works are just beginning to be understood. This project targeted the main property of cirrus clouds that influence climate processes; the ice fall speed. That is, this project improves the representation of the mass-weighted ice particle fall velocity, Vm, in climate models, used to predict future climate on global and regional scales. Prior to 2007, the dominant sizes of ice particles in cirrus clouds were poorly understood, making it virtually impossible to predict how cirrus clouds interact with sunlight and thermal radiation. Due to several studies investigating the performance of optical probes used to measure the ice particle size distribution (PSD), as well as the remote sensing results from our last ARM project, it is now well established that the anomalously high concentrations of small ice crystals often reported prior to 2007 were measurement artifacts. Advances in the design and data processing of optical probes have greatly reduced these ice artifacts that resulted from the shattering of ice particles on the probe tips and/or inlet tube, and PSD measurements from one of these improved probes (the 2-dimensional Stereo or 2D-S probe) are utilized in this project to parameterize Vm for climate models. Our original plan in the proposal was to parameterize the ice PSD (in terms of temperature and ice water content) and ice particle mass and projected area (in terms of mass- and area-dimensional power laws or m-D/A-D expressions) since these are the microphysical properties that determine Vm, and then proceed to calculate Vm from these parameterized properties. But the 2D-S probe directly measures ice particle projected area and indirectly estimates ice particle mass for each size bin. It soon became apparent that the original plan would introduce more uncertainty in the Vm calculations

  11. The urban land debate in the global South : New avenues for research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steel, Griet|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304349828; van Noorloos, Femke|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/342952706; Klaufus, Christien

    2017-01-01

    The globalland grab’ debate is going urban and needs a specific conceptual framework to analyze the diverse modalities through which land commodification and speculation are transforming cities across the globe. This article identifies new avenues for research on urban land issues by drawing on an

  12. The urban land debate in the global South : New avenues for research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steel, G.; van Noorloos, F.; Klaufus, C.

    The globalland grab’ debate is going urban and needs a specific conceptual framework to analyze the diverse modalities through which land commodification and speculation are transforming cities across the globe. This article identifies new avenues for research on urban land issues by drawing on an

  13. Carbon dioxide enhances fragility of ice crystals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qin Zhao; Buehler, Markus J

    2012-01-01

    Ice caps and glaciers cover 7% of the Earth, greater than the land area of Europe and North America combined, and play an important role in global climate. The small-scale failure mechanisms of ice fracture, however, remain largely elusive. In particular, little understanding exists about how the presence and concentration of carbon dioxide molecules, a significant component in the atmosphere, affects the propensity of ice to fracture. Here we use atomic simulations with the first-principles based ReaxFF force field capable of describing the details of chemical reactions at the tip of a crack, applied to investigate the effects of the presence of carbon dioxide molecules on ice fracture. Our result shows that increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide molecules significantly decrease the fracture toughness of the ice crystal, making it more fragile. Using enhanced molecular sampling with metadynamics we reconstruct the free energy landscape in varied chemical microenvironments and find that carbon dioxide molecules affect the bonds between water molecules at the crack tip and decrease their strength by altering the dissociation energy of hydrogen bonds. In the context of glacier dynamics our findings may provide a novel viewpoint that could aid in understanding the breakdown and melting of glaciers, suggesting that the chemical composition of the atmosphere can be critical to mediate the large-scale motion of large volumes of ice.

  14. Food Footprints: Global diet preferences and the land required to sustain them

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassidy, E. S.; Gerber, J. S.; Foley, J. A.

    2011-12-01

    Agricultural land occupies approximately 4.9 billion hectares of the earth's surface. The amount of land that is required to feed a person differs globally, however, dependent mainly on diet. Diets dense in grain-fed animal protein require more land than plant-based diets in order to supply the same quantity of calories and protein. As the world's population becomes more affluent, more animal products will be demanded of the food system. In this presentation, I will discuss how diet preferences differ globally and how these preferences translate to the amount of cropland needed to sustain them.

  15. Recent decline in the global land evapotranspiration trend due to limited moisture supply.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Martin; Reichstein, Markus; Ciais, Philippe; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Sheffield, Justin; Goulden, Michael L; Bonan, Gordon; Cescatti, Alessandro; Chen, Jiquan; de Jeu, Richard; Dolman, A Johannes; Eugster, Werner; Gerten, Dieter; Gianelle, Damiano; Gobron, Nadine; Heinke, Jens; Kimball, John; Law, Beverly E; Montagnani, Leonardo; Mu, Qiaozhen; Mueller, Brigitte; Oleson, Keith; Papale, Dario; Richardson, Andrew D; Roupsard, Olivier; Running, Steve; Tomelleri, Enrico; Viovy, Nicolas; Weber, Ulrich; Williams, Christopher; Wood, Eric; Zaehle, Sönke; Zhang, Ke

    2010-10-21

    More than half of the solar energy absorbed by land surfaces is currently used to evaporate water. Climate change is expected to intensify the hydrological cycle and to alter evapotranspiration, with implications for ecosystem services and feedback to regional and global climate. Evapotranspiration changes may already be under way, but direct observational constraints are lacking at the global scale. Until such evidence is available, changes in the water cycle on land−a key diagnostic criterion of the effects of climate change and variability−remain uncertain. Here we provide a data-driven estimate of global land evapotranspiration from 1982 to 2008, compiled using a global monitoring network, meteorological and remote-sensing observations, and a machine-learning algorithm. In addition, we have assessed evapotranspiration variations over the same time period using an ensemble of process-based land-surface models. Our results suggest that global annual evapotranspiration increased on average by 7.1 ± 1.0 millimetres per year per decade from 1982 to 1997. After that, coincident with the last major El Niño event in 1998, the global evapotranspiration increase seems to have ceased until 2008. This change was driven primarily by moisture limitation in the Southern Hemisphere, particularly Africa and Australia. In these regions, microwave satellite observations indicate that soil moisture decreased from 1998 to 2008. Hence, increasing soil-moisture limitations on evapotranspiration largely explain the recent decline of the global land-evapotranspiration trend. Whether the changing behaviour of evapotranspiration is representative of natural climate variability or reflects a more permanent reorganization of the land water cycle is a key question for earth system science.

  16. Modeling of the Global Water Cycle - Analytical Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yongqiang Liu; Roni Avissar

    2005-01-01

    Both numerical and analytical models of coupled atmosphere and its underlying ground components (land, ocean, ice) are useful tools for modeling the global and regional water cycle. Unlike complex three-dimensional climate models, which need very large computing resources and involve a large number of complicated interactions often difficult to interpret, analytical...

  17. Urban Land Expansion and Spatial Dynamics in Globalizing Shanghai

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Han Li

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Urban land expansion in China has attracted considerable scholarly attention. However, more work is needed to apply spatial modeling to understanding the mechanisms of urban growth from both institutional and physical perspectives. This paper analyzes urban expansion in Shanghai and its development zones (DZs. We find that, as nodes of global-local interface, the DZs are the most significant components of urban growth in Shanghai, and major spatial patterns of urban expansion in Shanghai are infilling and edge expansion. We apply logistic regression, geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR and spatial regime regression to investigate the determinants of urban land expansion including physical conditions, state policy and land development. Regressions reveal that, though the market has been an important driving force in urban growth, the state has played a predominant role through the implementation of urban planning and the establishment of DZs to fully capitalize on globalization. We also find that differences in urban growth dynamics exist between the areas inside and outside of the DZs. Finally, this paper discusses policies to promote sustainable development in Shanghai.

  18. Classification of Global Land Development Phases by Forest and GDP Changes for Appropriate Land Management in the Mid-Latitude

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cholho Song

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available To implement appropriate land management strategies, it is essential to identify past and current land cover and land use conditions. In addition, an assessment of land development phases (LDPs in a human-dominated landscape coupled with an analysis of the water-food-ecosystem (WFE nexus can deepen our understanding of sustainable land management. In this study, we proposed the concept of land development phases (LDPs by forest and GDP changes using previously-applied theoretical and empirical approaches. The positive relationship between GDP growth and forest stock changes was used to analyze the timing of forest stock changes as five-year averages, which were aggregated over 20 years to classify LDPs. In addition, forest area changes compared with GDP and GDP per capita changes were analyzed to identify LDPs. Based on two conceptual approaches, we suggested global land into three LDPs: degradation, restoration and sustainability. Using this approach, most of Europe, North America and northeast Asia were classified as sustainability phases, while Africa and Central Asia in the Mid-Latitude region appeared to have degradation or restoration phases. The LDPs described could be improved with further incorporation of solid data analysis and clear standards, but even at this stage, these LDP classifications suggest points for implementing appropriate land management. In addition, indices from comparative analysis of the LDPs with the WFE nexus can be connected with socio-economic global indices, such as the Global Hunger Index, the Food Production Index and the Climate Change Performance Index. The LDPs have the potential to facilitate appropriate land management strategies through integrating WFE nexus and ecosystem services; we propose future research that uses this integration for the Mid-Latitude region and worldwide.

  19. A Legacy for IPY: The Global Snowflake Network (GSN) Together With Art and Ice, and Music and Ice; Unique new Features for Science Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wasilewski, P. J.

    2007-12-01

    The Global Snowflake Network (GSN) is a program that is simultaneously a science program and an education program. When the validation of the procedures (collection and identification of the type of snowflakes and the associated satellite image archive, as a serial record of a storm), is achieved, then the program becomes a scientific resource. This latter is the ultimate goal. That's why NASA has launched the Global Snowflake Network, a massive project that aims to involve the general public to "collect and classify" falling snowflakes. The data will be compiled into a massive database, along with satellite images, that will help climatologists and others who study climate-related phenomena gain a better understanding of wintry meteorology as they track various snowstorms around the globe. A great deal of information about the atmosphere dynamics and cloud microphysics can be derived from the serial collection and identification of the types of snow crystals and the degree of riming of the snow crystals during the progress of a snow storm. Forecasting winter weather depends in part on cloud physics, which deals with precipitation type, and if it happens to be snow- the crystal type, size, and density of the snowflake population. The History of Winter website will host the evolving snow and ice features for the IPY. Type "Global Snowflake Network" into the search engine (such as GOOGLE) and you will receive a demonstration of the operation of the preliminary GSN by the Indigenous community. The expeditions FINNMARK2007 and the POLAR Husky GoNorth 2007 expedition took the complement of Thermochrons with multimedia instructions for the Global Snowflake Network. This approach demonstrates the continuous Thermochron monitoring of expedition temperature and provides otherwise inaccessible snowflake information to NASA and others interested in the Polar region snow. In addition, reindeer herder and Ph.D. student, Inger Marie G. Eira, will incorporate the HOW, GSN

  20. Canadian Ice Service Arctic Regional Sea Ice Charts in SIGRID-3 Format

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Canadian Ice Service (CIS) produces digital Arctic regional sea ice charts for marine navigation, climate research, and input to the Global Digital Sea Ice Data...

  1. SeaWinds - Oceans, Land, Polar Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-01-01

    The SeaWinds scatterometer on the QuikScat satellite makes global radar measurements -- day and night, in clear sky and through clouds. The radar data over the oceans provide scientists and weather forecasters with information on surface wind speed and direction. Scientists also use the radar measurements directly to learn about changes in vegetation and ice extent over land and polar regions.This false-color image is based entirely on SeaWinds measurements obtained over oceans, land, and polar regions. Over the ocean, colors indicate wind speed with orange as the fastest wind speeds and blue as the slowest. White streamlines indicate the wind direction. The ocean winds in this image were measured by SeaWinds on September 20, 1999. The large storm in the Atlantic off the coast of Florida is Hurricane Gert. Tropical storm Harvey is evident as a high wind region in the Gulf of Mexico, while farther west in the Pacific is tropical storm Hilary. An extensive storm is also present in the South Atlantic Ocean near Antarctica.The land image was made from four days of SeaWinds data with the aid of a resolution enhancement algorithm developed by Dr. David Long at Brigham Young University. The lightest green areas correspond to the highest radar backscatter. Note the bright Amazon and Congo rainforests compared to the dark Sahara desert. The Amazon River is visible as a dark line running horizontally though the bright South American rain forest. Cities appear as bright spots on the images, especially in the U.S. and Europe.The image of Greenland and the north polar ice cap was generated from data acquired by SeaWinds on a single day. In the polar region portion of the image, white corresponds to the largest radar return, while purple is the lowest. The variations in color in Greenland and the polar ice cap reveal information about the ice and snow conditions present.NASA's Earth Science Enterprise is a long-term research and technology program designed to examine Earth

  2. Influence of sea ice on Arctic coasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnhart, K. R.; Kay, J. E.; Overeem, I.; Anderson, R. S.

    2017-12-01

    Coasts form the dynamic interface between the terrestrial and oceanic systems. In the Arctic, and in much of the world, the coast is a focal point for population, infrastructure, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. A key difference between Arctic and temperate coasts is the presence of sea ice. Changes in sea ice cover can influence the coast because (1) the length of the sea ice-free season controls the time over which nearshore water can interact with the land, and (2) the location of the sea ice edge controls the fetch over which storm winds can interact with open ocean water, which in turn governs nearshore water level and wave field. We first focus on the interaction of sea ice and ice-rich coasts. We combine satellite records of sea ice with a model for wind-driven storm surge and waves to estimate how changes in the sea ice-free season have impacted the nearshore hydrodynamic environment along Alaska's Beaufort Sea Coast for the period 1979-2012. This region has experienced some of the greatest changes in both sea ice cover and coastal erosion rates in the Arctic: the median length of the open-water season has expanded by 90 percent, while coastal erosion rates have more than doubled from 8.7 to 19 m yr-1. At Drew Point, NW winds increase shoreline water levels that control the incision of a submarine notch, the rate-limiting step of coastal retreat. The maximum water-level setup at Drew Point has increased consistently with increasing fetch. We extend our analysis to the entire Arctic using both satellite-based observations and global coupled climate model output from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) project. This 30-member ensemble employs a 1-degree version of the CESM-CAM5 historical forcing for the period 1920-2005, and RCP 8.5 forcing from 2005-2100. A control model run with constant pre-industrial (1850) forcing characterizes internal variability in a constant climate. Finally, we compare observations and model results to

  3. Statistical analysis of global surface temperature and sea level using cointegration methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Torben; Johansen, Søren; Thejll, Peter

    2012-01-01

    Global sea levels are rising which is widely understood as a consequence of thermal expansion and melting of glaciers and land-based ice caps. Due to the lack of representation of ice-sheet dynamics in present-day physically-based climate models being unable to simulate observed sea level trends......, semi-empirical models have been applied as an alternative for projecting of future sea levels. There is in this, however, potential pitfalls due to the trending nature of the time series. We apply a statistical method called cointegration analysis to observed global sea level and land-ocean surface air...... temperature, capable of handling such peculiarities. We find a relationship between sea level and temperature and find that temperature causally depends on the sea level, which can be understood as a consequence of the large heat capacity of the ocean. We further find that the warming episode in the 1940s...

  4. Perennial water stratification and the role of freshwater in the mass balance of Arctic ice shelves and multiyear landfast sea ice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeffries, M.O.

    1991-01-01

    A number of the ice shelves of northern Ellesmere Island in the Canadian High Arctic owe their origin to multiyear landfast sea ice (MLSI) growth during the post-Hypsithermal cooling ca. 3,000-4,000 BP. Since they grew in response to an arctic-wide climatic deterioration and contain evidence of occasional post-4,000 BP climatic ameliorations, they may be expected to be sensitive to future global climate changes manifested in the High Arctic. The purpose of this paper is to examine ice-ocean interactions and feedbacks, and the response of the ice shelves and the MLSI to the improved summer climate of the last ca. 100 years, and implications for the future. There is good evidence that there has been a negative surface mass balance since the turn of the century. Mass balance measurements on the Ward Hunt Ice Shelf between 1966 and 1985 indicate a total ice loss of 1.371 m at a mean annual rate of 68.5 mm. The interannual pattern of accumulation and ablation and the long-term losses on the ice shelf are similar to other Canadian High Arctic glacier mass balance records. It is evident from water and ice core records of salinity, δ 18 0 and tritium, that perennial water stratification is common below and behind the ice shelves and MLSI. The coastal waters are highly stratified, with anything from 0.5 m to 41.0 m of freshwater interposed between the overlying ice and underlying seawater. The primary source of the freshwater is summer run-off of snow-meltwater from the adjacent land and from the ice itself. There is minimal mixing between the influent freshwater and seawater, and the freshwater is either dammed behind the ice shelves and the MLSI, with subsequent under-ice freshwater outflows, or pooled in under-ice depressions

  5. Global ice sheet/RSL simulations using the higher-order Ice Sheet System Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larour, E. Y.; Ivins, E. R.; Adhikari, S.; Schlegel, N.; Seroussi, H. L.; Morlighem, M.

    2017-12-01

    Relative sea-level rise is driven by processes that are intimately linked to the evolution ofglacial areas and ice sheets in particular. So far, most Earth System models capable of projecting theevolution of RSL on decadal to centennial time scales have relied on offline interactions between RSL andice sheets. In particular, grounding line and calving front dynamics have not been modeled in a way that istightly coupled with Elasto-Static Adjustment (ESA) and/or Glacial-Isostatic Adjustment (GIA). Here, we presenta new simulation of the entire Earth System in which both Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets are tightly coupledto an RSL model that includes both ESA and GIA at resolutions and time scales compatible with processes suchas grounding line dynamics for Antarctica ice shelves and calving front dynamics for Greenland marine-terminatingglaciers. The simulations rely on the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) and show the impact of higher-orderice flow dynamics and coupling feedbacks between ice flow and RSL. We quantify the exact impact of ESA andGIA inclusion on grounding line evolution for large ice shelves such as the Ronne and Ross ice shelves, as well asthe Agasea Embayment ice streams, and demonstate how offline vs online RSL simulations diverge in the long run,and the consequences for predictions of sea-level rise.This work was performed at the California Institute of Technology's Jet Propulsion Laboratory undera contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Cryosphere Science Program.

  6. Effects of land use on zoonotic host communities: a global correlative analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rory Gibb, MRes

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: Environmental trade-offs associated with land use—for example, between food security and biodiversity conservation—are crucial dimensions of planetary health. Land use-driven biodiversity change might predictably affect disease risk if reservoir host species are consistently more likely to persist under human disturbance (ie, if ecological communities in modified habitats generally have a higher zoonotic potential than those in unmodified habitats. Such a phenomenon has been observed in specific disease systems, but with substantial change in global land use projected for this century, assessing its global and taxonomic generality would shed light on an important hypothesised driver of environmental synergies or trade-offs between conservation and public health. Methods: We collated data on hosts of human parasites and pathogens from the published literature, and combined these with the Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity in Changing Terrestrial Systems (PREDICTS global database of local ecological communities and associated land use data. We analysed the effects of land use on host richness and abundance across 7330 sites globally, controlling for disease-related research effort and differences in survey methods. Findings: Ecological communities in anthropogenic land uses (managed and urban ecosystems contained a consistently higher richness and abundance of host species than did communities in nearby primary (undisturbed sites. However, among mammal hosts of zoonotic pathogens, we found considerable taxonomic variation in host responses to land use, with abundances of rodents and bats generally increasing and those of primates and carnivores generally declining in modified landscapes. Interpretation: Our results suggest that future change in global land use has the potential to drive overall increasing contact between people and ecological communities with increased shared pathogen potential (ie, more potential hosts

  7. The role of land surface dynamics in glacial inception: a study with the UVic Earth System Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meissner, K.J.; Weaver, A.J.; Matthews, H.D. [School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria (Canada); Cox, P.M. [Hadley Centre, Meteorological Office, Bracknell (United Kingdom)

    2003-12-01

    The first results of the UVic Earth System Model coupled to a land surface scheme and a dynamic global vegetation model are presented in this study. In the first part the present day climate simulation is discussed and compared to observations. We then compare a simulation of an ice age inception (forced with 116 ka BP orbital parameters and an atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration of 240 ppm) with a preindustrial run (present day orbital parameters, atmospheric [CO{sub 2}] = 280 ppm). Emphasis is placed on the vegetation's response to the combined changes in solar radiation and atmospheric CO{sub 2} level. A southward shift of the northern treeline as well as a global decrease in vegetation carbon is observed in the ice age inception run. In tropical regions, up to 88% of broadleaf trees are replaced by shrubs and C{sub 4} grasses. These changes in vegetation cover have a remarkable effect on the global climate: land related feedbacks double the atmospheric cooling during the ice age inception as well as the reduction of the meridional overturning in the North Atlantic. The introduction of vegetation related feedbacks also increases the surface area with perennial snow significantly. (orig.)

  8. Energy prices will play an important role in determining global land use in the twenty first century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinbuks, Jevgenijs; Hertel, Thomas W.

    2013-03-01

    Global land use research to date has focused on quantifying uncertainty effects of three major drivers affecting competition for land: the uncertainty in energy and climate policies affecting competition between food and biofuels, the uncertainty of climate impacts on agriculture and forestry, and the uncertainty in the underlying technological progress driving efficiency of food, bioenergy and timber production. The market uncertainty in fossil fuel prices has received relatively less attention in the global land use literature. Petroleum and natural gas prices affect both the competitiveness of biofuels and the cost of nitrogen fertilizers. High prices put significant pressure on global land supply and greenhouse gas emissions from terrestrial systems, while low prices can moderate demands for cropland. The goal of this letter is to assess and compare the effects of these core uncertainties on the optimal profile for global land use and land-based GHG emissions over the coming century. The model that we develop integrates distinct strands of agronomic, biophysical and economic literature into a single, intertemporally consistent, analytical framework, at global scale. Our analysis accounts for the value of land-based services in the production of food, first- and second-generation biofuels, timber, forest carbon and biodiversity. We find that long-term uncertainty in energy prices dominates the climate impacts and climate policy uncertainties emphasized in prior research on global land use.

  9. Energy prices will play an important role in determining global land use in the twenty first century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steinbuks, Jevgenijs; Hertel, Thomas W

    2013-01-01

    Global land use research to date has focused on quantifying uncertainty effects of three major drivers affecting competition for land: the uncertainty in energy and climate policies affecting competition between food and biofuels, the uncertainty of climate impacts on agriculture and forestry, and the uncertainty in the underlying technological progress driving efficiency of food, bioenergy and timber production. The market uncertainty in fossil fuel prices has received relatively less attention in the global land use literature. Petroleum and natural gas prices affect both the competitiveness of biofuels and the cost of nitrogen fertilizers. High prices put significant pressure on global land supply and greenhouse gas emissions from terrestrial systems, while low prices can moderate demands for cropland. The goal of this letter is to assess and compare the effects of these core uncertainties on the optimal profile for global land use and land-based GHG emissions over the coming century. The model that we develop integrates distinct strands of agronomic, biophysical and economic literature into a single, intertemporally consistent, analytical framework, at global scale. Our analysis accounts for the value of land-based services in the production of food, first- and second-generation biofuels, timber, forest carbon and biodiversity. We find that long-term uncertainty in energy prices dominates the climate impacts and climate policy uncertainties emphasized in prior research on global land use. (letter)

  10. Impact of Precipitating Ice Hydrometeors on Longwave Radiative Effect Estimated by a Global Cloud-System Resolving Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ying-Wen; Seiki, Tatsuya; Kodama, Chihiro; Satoh, Masaki; Noda, Akira T.

    2018-02-01

    Satellite observation and general circulation model (GCM) studies suggest that precipitating ice makes nonnegligible contributions to the radiation balance of the Earth. However, in most GCMs, precipitating ice is diagnosed and its radiative effects are not taken into account. Here we examine the longwave radiative impact of precipitating ice using a global nonhydrostatic atmospheric model with a double-moment cloud microphysics scheme. An off-line radiation model is employed to determine cloud radiative effects according to the amount and altitude of each type of ice hydrometeor. Results show that the snow radiative effect reaches 2 W m-2 in the tropics, which is about half the value estimated by previous studies. This effect is strongly dependent on the vertical separation of ice categories and is partially generated by differences in terminal velocities, which are not represented in GCMs with diagnostic precipitating ice. Results from sensitivity experiments that artificially change the categories and altitudes of precipitating ice show that the simulated longwave heating profile and longwave radiation field are sensitive to the treatment of precipitating ice in models. This study emphasizes the importance of incorporating appropriate treatments for the radiative effects of precipitating ice in cloud and radiation schemes in GCMs in order to capture the cloud radiative effects of upper level clouds.

  11. Processes driving sea ice variability in the Bering Sea in an eddying ocean/sea ice model: Mean seasonal cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Linghan; McClean, Julie L.; Miller, Arthur J.; Eisenman, Ian; Hendershott, Myrl C.; Papadopoulos, Caroline A.

    2014-12-01

    The seasonal cycle of sea ice variability in the Bering Sea, together with the thermodynamic and dynamic processes that control it, are examined in a fine resolution (1/10°) global coupled ocean/sea-ice model configured in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) framework. The ocean/sea-ice model consists of the Los Alamos National Laboratory Parallel Ocean Program (POP) and the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE). The model was forced with time-varying reanalysis atmospheric forcing for the time period 1970-1989. This study focuses on the time period 1980-1989. The simulated seasonal-mean fields of sea ice concentration strongly resemble satellite-derived observations, as quantified by root-mean-square errors and pattern correlation coefficients. The sea ice energy budget reveals that the seasonal thermodynamic ice volume changes are dominated by the surface energy flux between the atmosphere and the ice in the northern region and by heat flux from the ocean to the ice along the southern ice edge, especially on the western side. The sea ice force balance analysis shows that sea ice motion is largely associated with wind stress. The force due to divergence of the internal ice stress tensor is large near the land boundaries in the north, and it is small in the central and southern ice-covered region. During winter, which dominates the annual mean, it is found that the simulated sea ice was mainly formed in the northern Bering Sea, with the maximum ice growth rate occurring along the coast due to cold air from northerly winds and ice motion away from the coast. South of St Lawrence Island, winds drive the model sea ice southwestward from the north to the southwestern part of the ice-covered region. Along the ice edge in the western Bering Sea, model sea ice is melted by warm ocean water, which is carried by the simulated Bering Slope Current flowing to the northwest, resulting in the S-shaped asymmetric ice edge. In spring and fall, similar thermodynamic and dynamic

  12. Contributions of projected land use to global radiative forcing ascribed to local sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, D. S.; Mahowald, N. M.; Kloster, S.

    2013-12-01

    With global demand for food expected to dramatically increase and put additional pressures on natural lands, there is a need to understand the environmental impacts of land use and land cover change (LULCC). Previous studies have shown that the magnitude and even the sign of the radiative forcing (RF) of biogeophysical effects from LULCC depends on the latitude and forest ecology of the disturbed region. Here we ascribe the contributions to the global RF by land-use related anthropogenic activities to their local sources, organized on a grid of 1.9 degrees latitude by 2.5 degrees longitude. We use RF estimates for the year 2100, using five future LULCC projections, computed from simulations with the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Land Model and Community Atmosphere Models and additional offline analyses. Our definition of the LULCC RF includes changes to terrestrial carbon storage, methane and nitrous oxide emissions, atmospheric chemistry, aerosol emissions, and surface albedo. We ascribe the RF to gridded locations based on LULCC-related emissions of relevant trace gases and aerosols, including emissions from fires. We find that the largest contributions to the global RF in year 2100 from LULCC originate in the tropics for all future scenarios. In fact, LULCC is the largest tropical source of anthropogenic RF. The LULCC RF in the tropics is dominated by emissions of CO2 from deforestation and methane emissions from livestock and soils. Land surface albedo change is rarely the dominant forcing agent in any of the future LULCC projections, at any location. By combining the five future scenarios we find that deforested area at a specific tropical location can be used to predict the contribution to global RF from LULCC at that location (the relationship does not hold as well in the extratropics). This information could support global efforts like REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation), that aim to reduce greenhouse gas

  13. Direct observations of ice seasonality reveal changes in climate over the past 320–570 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Sapna; Magnuson, John J.; Batt, Ryan D.; Winslow, Luke; Korhonen, Johanna; Yasuyuki Aono,

    2016-01-01

    Lake and river ice seasonality (dates of ice freeze and breakup) responds sensitively to climatic change and variability. We analyzed climate-related changes using direct human observations of ice freeze dates (1443–2014) for Lake Suwa, Japan, and of ice breakup dates (1693–2013) for Torne River, Finland. We found a rich array of changes in ice seasonality of two inland waters from geographically distant regions: namely a shift towards later ice formation for Suwa and earlier spring melt for Torne, increasing frequencies of years with warm extremes, changing inter-annual variability, waning of dominant inter-decadal quasi-periodic dynamics, and stronger correlations of ice seasonality with atmospheric CO2 concentration and air temperature after the start of the Industrial Revolution. Although local factors, including human population growth, land use change, and water management influence Suwa and Torne, the general patterns of ice seasonality are similar for both systems, suggesting that global processes including climate change and variability are driving the long-term changes in ice seasonality.

  14. Sustainable and resource-conserving utilization of global land areas and biomass; Globale Landflaechen und Biomasse nachhaltig und ressourcenschonend nutzen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jering, Almut; Klatt, Anne; Seven, Jan; Ehlers, Knut; Guenther, Jens; Ostermeier, Andreas; Moench, Lars

    2012-10-15

    The contribution under consideration reports on the state of the art of biomass based land use as well as on existing and future global development trends. An ecologically compatible and socially equitable utilization of resources as well as priorities in the production and utilization of biomass are described in order to achieve their goals. Approaches to action, measures and policy recommendations are presented with respect to the development of a globally sustainable, resource-conserving utilization of land.

  15. Climate change impacts on global agricultural land availability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Xiao; Cai Ximing

    2011-01-01

    Climate change can affect both crop yield and the land area suitable for agriculture. This study provides a spatially explicit estimate of the impact of climate change on worldwide agricultural land availability, considering uncertainty in climate change projections and ambiguity with regard to land classification. Uncertainty in general circulation model (GCM) projections is addressed using data assembled from thirteen GCMs and two representative emission scenarios (A1B and B1 employ CO 2 -equivalent greenhouse gas concentrations of 850 and 600 ppmv, respectively; B1 represents a greener economy). Erroneous data and the uncertain nature of land classifications based on multiple indices (i.e. soil properties, land slope, temperature, and humidity) are handled with fuzzy logic modeling. It is found that the total global arable land area is likely to decrease by 0.8-1.7% under scenario A1B and increase by 2.0-4.4% under scenario B1. Regions characterized by relatively high latitudes such as Russia, China and the US may expect an increase of total arable land by 37-67%, 22-36% and 4-17%, respectively, while tropical and sub-tropical regions may suffer different levels of lost arable land. For example, South America may lose 1-21% of its arable land area, Africa 1-18%, Europe 11-17%, and India 2-4%. When considering, in addition, land used for human settlements and natural conservation, the net potential arable land may decrease even further worldwide by the end of the 21st century under both scenarios due to population growth. Regionally, it is likely that both climate change and population growth will cause reductions in arable land in Africa, South America, India and Europe. However, in Russia, China and the US, significant arable land increases may still be possible. Although the magnitudes of the projected changes vary by scenario, the increasing or decreasing trends in arable land area are regionally consistent.

  16. Hydration of the lower stratosphere by ice crystal geysers over land convective systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Khaykin

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available The possible impact of deep convective overshooting over land has been explored by six simultaneous soundings of water vapour, particles and ozone in the lower stratosphere next to Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs during the monsoon season over West Africa in Niamey, Niger in August 2006. The water vapour measurements were carried out using a fast response FLASH-B Lyman-alpha hygrometer. The high vertical resolution observations of the instrument show the presence of accumulation of enhanced water vapour layers between the tropopause at 370 K and the 420 K level. Most of these moist layers are shown connected with overshooting events occurring upwind as identified from satellite IR images over which the air mass probed by the sondes passed during the three previous days. In the case of a local overshoot identified by echo top turrets above the tropopause by the MIT C-band radar also in Niamey, tight coincidence was found between enhanced water vapour, ice crystal and ozone dip layers indicative of fast uplift of tropospheric air across the tropopause. The water vapour mixing ratio in the enriched layers exceeds frequently by 1–3 ppmv the average 6 ppmv saturation ratio at the tropopause and by up to 7 ppmv in the extreme case of local storm in coincidence with the presence of ice crystals. The presence of such layers strongly suggests hydration of the lower stratosphere by geyser-like injection of ice particles over overshooting turrets. The pile-like increase of water vapour up to 19 km seen by the high-resolution hygrometer during the season of maximum temperature of the tropopause, suggests that the above hydration mechanism may contribute to the summer maximum moisture in the lower stratosphere. If this interpretation is correct, hydration by ice geysers across the tropopause might be an important contributor to the stratospheric water vapour budget.

  17. Highlighting continued uncertainty in global land cover maps for the user community

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fritz, Steffen; See, Linda; McCallum, Ian; Schill, Christian; Obersteiner, Michael; Van der Velde, Marijn; Boettcher, Hannes; Havlík, Petr; Achard, Frédéric

    2011-01-01

    In the last 10 years a number of new global datasets have been created and new, more sophisticated algorithms have been designed to classify land cover. GlobCover and MODIS v.5 are the most recent global land cover products available, where GlobCover (300 m) has the finest spatial resolution of other comparable products such as MODIS v.5 (500 m) and GLC-2000 (1 km). This letter shows that the thematic accuracy in the cropland domain has decreased when comparing these two latest products. This disagreement is also evident spatially when examining maps of cropland and forest disagreement between GLC-2000, MODIS and GlobCover. The analysis highlights the continued uncertainty surrounding these products, with a combined forest and cropland disagreement of 893 Mha (GlobCover versus MODIS v.5). This letter suggests that data sharing efforts and the provision of more in situ data for training, calibration and validation are very important conditions for improving future global land cover products.

  18. Global land-atmosphere coupling associated with cold climate processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dutra, Emanuel

    This dissertation constitutes an assessment of the role of cold processes, associated with snow cover, in controlling the land-atmosphere coupling. The work was based on model simulations, including offline simulations with the land surface model HTESSEL, and coupled atmosphere simulations with the EC-EARTH climate model. A revised snow scheme was developed and tested in HTESSEL and EC-EARTH. The snow scheme is currently operational at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts integrated forecast system, and in the default configuration of EC-EARTH. The improved representation of the snowpack dynamics in HTESSEL resulted in improvements in the near surface temperature simulations of EC-EARTH. The new snow scheme development was complemented with the option of multi-layer version that showed its potential in modeling thick snowpacks. A key process was the snow thermal insulation that led to significant improvements of the surface water and energy balance components. Similar findings were observed when coupling the snow scheme to lake ice, where lake ice duration was significantly improved. An assessment on the snow cover sensitivity to horizontal resolution, parameterizations and atmospheric forcing within HTESSEL highlighted the role of the atmospheric forcing accuracy and snowpack parameterizations in detriment of horizontal resolution over flat regions. A set of experiments with and without free snow evolution was carried out with EC-EARTH to assess the impact of the interannual variability of snow cover on near surface and soil temperatures. It was found that snow cover interannual variability explained up to 60% of the total interannual variability of near surface temperature over snow covered regions. Although these findings are model dependent, the results showed consistency with previously published work. Furthermore, the detailed validation of the snow dynamics simulations in HTESSEL and EC-EARTH guarantees consistency of the results.

  19. The 1 km AVHRR global land data set: first stages in implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eidenshink, J.C.; Faundeen, J.L.

    1994-01-01

    The global land 1 km data set project represents an international effort to acquire, archive, process, and distribute 1 km AVHRR data of the entire global land surface in order to meet the needs of the international science community. A network of 26 high resolution picture transmission (HRPT) stations, along with data recorded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), has been acquiring daily global land coverage since 1 April 1992. A data set of over 30000 AVHRR images has been archived and made available for distribution by the United States Geological Survey, EROS Data Center and the European Space Agency. Under the guidance of the International Geosphere Biosphere programme, processing standards for the AVHRR data have been developed for calibration, atmospheric correction, geometric registration, and the production of global 10-day maximum normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) composites. The major uses of the composites are related to the study of surface vegetation cover. A prototype 10-day composite was produced for the period of 21–30 June 1992. Production of an 18-month time series of 10-day composites is underway.

  20. A Bibliometric Assessment of Global Ice Bucket Challenge (Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis) Research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ram, Shri

    2016-10-01

    This study is a quantitative and qualitative assessment of the global research trends on amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) (popularly known as Ice Bucket Challenge), through related literatures retrieved from SCOPUS multidisciplinary database for the period 1974-2013. This study is aimed at analyzing the literature on ALS in terms of document type, language, annual growth, productive country, journal, authors, subject, and most cited articles. The bibliographic data for this study was retrieved from the SCOPUS database using keywords 'amyotrophic lateral sclerosis', 'motor neurone disease', 'Charcot disease', 'Lou Gehrig's disease', 'Ice Bucket Challenge' available in title, abstract, and keyword fields of Scopus database from 1974 to 2013. The literature analysis included 21,750 articles during the period from 1974 to 2013 in different areas of ALS. USA was the most productive country in terms of literature produced, while Neurology was the most productive journal. An intensive awareness created by 'Ice Bucket Challenge' has attracted masses, and an intensive growth of literature is pertinent on ALS. The results of this study are expressed in terms of growth of literature, output of individual countries, and authors, and will be helpful in collaborative research in future.

  1. Regional-Scale Forcing and Feedbacks from Alternative Scenarios of Global-Scale Land Use Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, A. D.; Chini, L. P.; Collins, W.; Janetos, A. C.; Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Thomson, A. M.; Torn, M. S.

    2011-12-01

    Future patterns of land use change depend critically on the degree to which terrestrial carbon management strategies, such as biological carbon sequestration and biofuels, are utilized in order to mitigate global climate change. Furthermore, land use change associated with terrestrial carbon management induces biogeophysical changes to surface energy budgets that perturb climate at regional and possibly global scales, activating different feedback processes depending on the nature and location of the land use change. As a first step in a broader effort to create an integrated earth system model, we examine two scenarios of future anthropogenic activity generated by the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) within the full-coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM). Each scenario stabilizes radiative forcing from greenhouse gases and aerosols at 4.5 W/m^2. In the first, stabilization is achieved through a universal carbon tax that values terrestrial carbon equally with fossil carbon, leading to modest afforestation globally and low biofuel utilization. In the second scenario, stabilization is achieved with a tax on fossil fuel and industrial carbon alone. In this case, biofuel utilization increases dramatically and crop area expands to claim approximately 50% of forest cover globally. By design, these scenarios exhibit identical climate forcing from atmospheric constituents. Thus, differences among them can be attributed to the biogeophysical effects of land use change. In addition, we utilize offline radiative transfer and offline land model simulations to identify forcing and feedback mechanisms operating in different regions. We find that boreal deforestation has a strong climatic signature due to significant albedo change coupled with a regional-scale water vapor feedback. Tropical deforestation, on the other hand, has more subtle effects on climate. Globally, the two scenarios yield warming trends over the 21st century that differ by 0.5 degrees Celsius. This

  2. Spatial assessment of land degradation through key ecosystem services: The role of globally available data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cerretelli, Stefania; Poggio, Laura; Gimona, Alessandro; Yakob, Getahun; Boke, Shiferaw; Habte, Mulugeta; Coull, Malcolm; Peressotti, Alessandro; Black, Helaina

    2018-07-01

    Land degradation is a serious issue especially in dry and developing countries leading to ecosystem services (ESS) degradation due to soil functions' depletion. Reliably mapping land degradation spatial distribution is therefore important for policy decisions. The main objectives of this paper were to infer land degradation through ESS assessment and compare the modelling results obtained using different sets of data. We modelled important physical processes (sediment erosion and nutrient export) and the equivalent ecosystem services (sediment and nutrient retention) to infer land degradation in an area in the Ethiopian Great Rift Valley. To model soil erosion/retention capability, and nitrogen export/retention capability, two datasets were used: a 'global' dataset derived from existing global-coverage data and a hybrid dataset where global data were integrated with data from local surveys. The results showed that ESS assessments can be used to infer land degradation and identify priority areas for interventions. The comparison between the modelling results of the two different input datasets showed that caution is necessary if only global-coverage data are used at a local scale. In remote and data-poor areas, an approach that integrates global data with targeted local sampling campaigns might be a good compromise to use ecosystem services in decision-making. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  3. An enhanced model of land water and energy for global hydrologic and earth-system studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milly, Paul C.D.; Malyshev, Sergey L.; Shevliakova, Elena; Dunne, Krista A.; Findell, Kirsten L.; Gleeson, Tom; Liang, Zhi; Phillips, Peter; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Swenson, Sean

    2014-01-01

    LM3 is a new model of terrestrial water, energy, and carbon, intended for use in global hydrologic analyses and as a component of earth-system and physical-climate models. It is designed to improve upon the performance and to extend the scope of the predecessor Land Dynamics (LaD) and LM3V models by better quantifying the physical controls of climate and biogeochemistry and by relating more directly to components of the global water system that touch human concerns. LM3 includes multilayer representations of temperature, liquid water content, and ice content of both snowpack and macroporous soil–bedrock; topography-based description of saturated area and groundwater discharge; and transport of runoff to the ocean via a global river and lake network. Sensible heat transport by water mass is accounted throughout for a complete energy balance. Carbon and vegetation dynamics and biophysics are represented as in LM3V. In numerical experiments, LM3 avoids some of the limitations of the LaD model and provides qualitatively (though not always quantitatively) reasonable estimates, from a global perspective, of observed spatial and/or temporal variations of vegetation density, albedo, streamflow, water-table depth, permafrost, and lake levels. Amplitude and phase of annual cycle of total water storage are simulated well. Realism of modeled lake levels varies widely. The water table tends to be consistently too shallow in humid regions. Biophysical properties have an artificial stepwise spatial structure, and equilibrium vegetation is sensitive to initial conditions. Explicit resolution of thick (>100 m) unsaturated zones and permafrost is possible, but only at the cost of long (≫300 yr) model spinup times.

  4. The long-term Global LAnd Surface Satellite (GLASS) product suite and applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, S.

    2015-12-01

    Our Earth's environment is experiencing rapid changes due to natural variability and human activities. To monitor, understand and predict environment changes to meet the economic, social and environmental needs, use of long-term high-quality satellite data products is critical. The Global LAnd Surface Satellite (GLASS) product suite, generated at Beijing Normal University, currently includes 12 products, including leaf area index (LAI), broadband shortwave albedo, broadband longwave emissivity, downwelling shortwave radiation and photosynthetically active radiation, land surface skin temperature, longwave net radiation, daytime all-wave net radiation, fraction of absorbed photosynetically active radiation absorbed by green vegetation (FAPAR), fraction of green vegetation coverage, gross primary productivity (GPP), and evapotranspiration (ET). Most products span from 1981-2014. The algorithms for producing these products have been published in the top remote sensing related journals and books. More and more applications have being reported in the scientific literature. The GLASS products are freely available at the Center for Global Change Data Processing and Analysis of Beijing Normal University (http://www.bnu-datacenter.com/), and the University of Maryland Global Land Cover Facility (http://glcf.umd.edu). After briefly introducing the basic characteristics of GLASS products, we will present some applications on the long-term environmental changes detected from GLASS products at both global and local scales. Detailed analysis of regional hotspots, such as Greenland, Tibetan plateau, and northern China, will be emphasized, where environmental changes have been mainly associated with climate warming, drought, land-atmosphere interactions, and human activities.

  5. Quantifying the Effects of Historical Land Cover Conversion Uncertainty on Global Carbon and Climate Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Vittorio, A. V.; Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Chini, L.; Hurtt, G.; Collins, W. D.

    2018-01-01

    Previous studies have examined land use change as a driver of global change, but the translation of land use change into land cover conversion has been largely unconstrained. Here we quantify the effects of land cover conversion uncertainty on the global carbon and climate system using the integrated Earth System Model. Our experiments use identical land use change data and vary land cover conversions to quantify associated uncertainty in carbon and climate estimates. Land cover conversion uncertainty is large, constitutes a 5 ppmv range in estimated atmospheric CO2 in 2004, and generates carbon uncertainty that is equivalent to 80% of the net effects of CO2 and climate and 124% of the effects of nitrogen deposition during 1850-2004. Additionally, land cover uncertainty generates differences in local surface temperature of over 1°C. We conclude that future studies addressing land use, carbon, and climate need to constrain and reduce land cover conversion uncertainties.

  6. Hydrological impacts of global land cover change and human water use

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bosmans, J.H.C.; van Beek, L.P.H.; Sutanudjaja, E.H.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2017-01-01

    Human impacts on global terrestrial hydrology have been accelerating during the 20th century. These human impacts include the effects of reservoir building and human water use, as well as land cover change. To date, many global studies have focussed on human water use, but only a few focus on or

  7. Climate, Agriculture, Energy and the Optimal Allocation of Global Land Use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinbuks, J.; Hertel, T. W.

    2011-12-01

    The allocation of the world's land resources over the course of the next century has become a pressing research question. Continuing population increases, improving, land-intensive diets amongst the poorest populations in the world, increasing production of biofuels and rapid urbanization in developing countries are all competing for land even as the world looks to land resources to supply more environmental services. The latter include biodiversity and natural lands, as well as forests and grasslands devoted to carbon sequestration. And all of this is taking place in the context of faster than expected climate change which is altering the biophysical environment for land-related activities. The goal of the paper is to determine the optimal profile for global land use in the context of growing commercial demands for food and forest products, increasing non-market demands for ecosystem services, and more stringent GHG mitigation targets. We then seek to assess how the uncertainty associated with the underlying biophysical and economic processes influences this optimal profile of land use, in light of potential irreversibility in these decisions. We develop a dynamic long-run, forward-looking partial equilibrium framework in which the societal objective function being maximized places value on food production, liquid fuels (including biofuels), timber production, forest carbon and biodiversity. Given the importance of land-based emissions to any GHG mitigation strategy, as well as the potential impacts of climate change itself on the productivity of land in agriculture, forestry and ecosystem services, we aim to identify the optimal allocation of the world's land resources, over the course of the next century, in the face of alternative GHG constraints. The forestry sector is characterized by multiple forest vintages which add considerable computational complexity in the context of this dynamic analysis. In order to solve this model efficiently, we have employed the

  8. Land Surface Phenology from MODIS: Characterization of the Collection 5 Global Land Cover Dynamics Product

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganguly, Sangram; Friedl, Mark A.; Tan, Bin; Zhang, Xiaoyang; Verma, Manish

    2010-01-01

    Information related to land surface phenology is important for a variety of applications. For example, phenology is widely used as a diagnostic of ecosystem response to global change. In addition, phenology influences seasonal scale fluxes of water, energy, and carbon between the land surface and atmosphere. Increasingly, the importance of phenology for studies of habitat and biodiversity is also being recognized. While many data sets related to plant phenology have been collected at specific sites or in networks focused on individual plants or plant species, remote sensing provides the only way to observe and monitor phenology over large scales and at regular intervals. The MODIS Global Land Cover Dynamics Product was developed to support investigations that require regional to global scale information related to spatiotemporal dynamics in land surface phenology. Here we describe the Collection 5 version of this product, which represents a substantial refinement relative to the Collection 4 product. This new version provides information related to land surface phenology at higher spatial resolution than Collection 4 (500-m vs. 1-km), and is based on 8-day instead of 16-day input data. The paper presents a brief overview of the algorithm, followed by an assessment of the product. To this end, we present (1) a comparison of results from Collection 5 versus Collection 4 for selected MODIS tiles that span a range of climate and ecological conditions, (2) a characterization of interannual variation in Collections 4 and 5 data for North America from 2001 to 2006, and (3) a comparison of Collection 5 results against ground observations for two forest sites in the northeastern United States. Results show that the Collection 5 product is qualitatively similar to Collection 4. However, Collection 5 has fewer missing values outside of regions with persistent cloud cover and atmospheric aerosols. Interannual variability in Collection 5 is consistent with expected ranges of

  9. GLOBAL CATEGORIZATION OF THE WORLD'S INDIGENOUS LAND AND RESOURCES RIGHTS

    OpenAIRE

    Dubertret , Fabrice

    2014-01-01

    This document is a draft. It aims at providing a basis for discussion between the different organizations and indigenous land and resources rights experts involved in the wider project of building a world atlas of indigenous territories.; This working paper describes the process of establishing a global categorization of indigenous land and resources rights. From the analysis of a great variability of legislations regarding indigenous territories, common considered topics are identified, such...

  10. The Effects of Chinese Dietary Trends on Global and Local Land Use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anthony, J.

    2015-12-01

    Global land scarcity is a major concern, which, due to climate change, lifestyle changes, and population growth, will only continue to worsen. It is a major driver of global environmental degradation, famine, and sociopolitical conflicts. With some 33% of the world's dwindling supply of arable land dedicated to grossly inefficient animal husbandry or animal feed production, it is easy to see that dietary consumption patterns play an important role. Although population growth in East Asia has stagnated, changing dietary trends mean that China is now the world's largest consumers of meat, consuming 25% of global meat production, despite having less than half of the American per capita equivalent. This paper assesses changing dietary consumption patterns of Taiwan, whose current per capita meat consumption surpasses all other East Asian countries, over the past 30 years and considers the relationship this has had on overall land consumption. We then consider dietary trends of Mainland China, which shares a common cultural heritage and whose current Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) is similar to Taiwanese PPP levels in 1985. Finally we retrospectively project three alternative Taiwanese consumption patterns over the past 30 years, consider the effect of each scenario on per capita land consumption, and finally consider these results in terms of culturally analogues Mainland China.

  11. A global assessment of gross and net land change dynamics for current conditions and future scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuchs, Richard; Prestele, Reinhard; Verburg, Peter H.

    2018-05-01

    The consideration of gross land changes, meaning all area gains and losses within a pixel or administrative unit (e.g. country), plays an essential role in the estimation of total land changes. Gross land changes affect the magnitude of total land changes, which feeds back to the attribution of biogeochemical and biophysical processes related to climate change in Earth system models. Global empirical studies on gross land changes are currently lacking. Whilst the relevance of gross changes for global change has been indicated in the literature, it is not accounted for in future land change scenarios. In this study, we extract gross and net land change dynamics from large-scale and high-resolution (30-100 m) remote sensing products to create a new global gross and net change dataset. Subsequently, we developed an approach to integrate our empirically derived gross and net changes with the results of future simulation models by accounting for the gross and net change addressed by the land use model and the gross and net change that is below the resolution of modelling. Based on our empirical data, we found that gross land change within 0.5° grid cells was substantially larger than net changes in all parts of the world. As 0.5° grid cells are a standard resolution of Earth system models, this leads to an underestimation of the amount of change. This finding contradicts earlier studies, which assumed gross land changes to appear in shifting cultivation areas only. Applied in a future scenario, the consideration of gross land changes led to approximately 50 % more land changes globally compared to a net land change representation. Gross land changes were most important in heterogeneous land systems with multiple land uses (e.g. shifting cultivation, smallholder farming, and agro-forestry systems). Moreover, the importance of gross changes decreased over time due to further polarization and intensification of land use. Our results serve as an empirical database for

  12. Study suggests Arctic sea ice loss not irreversible

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balcerak, Ernie

    2011-10-01

    The Arctic has been losing sea ice as Earth's climate warms, and some studies have suggested that the Arctic could reach a tipping point, beyond which ice would not recover even if global temperatures cooled down again. However, a new study by Armour et al. that uses a state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean global climate model found no evidence of such irreversibility. In their simulations, the researchers increased atmospheric carbon dioxide levels until Arctic sea ice disappeared year-round and then watched what happened as global temperatures were then decreased. They found that sea ice steadily recovered as global temperatures dropped. An implication of this result is that future sea ice loss will occur only as long as global temperatures continue to rise. (Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2011GL048739, 2011)

  13. A global data set of land-surface parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Claussen, M.; Lohmann, U.; Roeckner, E.; Schulzweida, U.

    1994-01-01

    A global data set of land surface parameters is provided for the climate model ECHAM developed at the Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie in Hamburg. These parameters are: background (surface) albedo α, surface roughness length z 0y , leaf area index LAI, fractional vegetation cover or vegetation ratio c y , and forest ratio c F . The global set of surface parameters is constructed by allocating parameters to major exosystem complexes of Olson et al. (1983). The global distribution of ecosystem complexes is given at a resolution of 0.5 0 x 0.5 0 . The latter data are compatible with the vegetation types used in the BIOME model of Prentice et al. (1992) which is a potential candidate of an interactive submodel within a comprehensive model of the climate system. (orig.)

  14. Political Economy of Global Rush for Agricultural Land: a Tract on India’s Overseas Acquisitions

    OpenAIRE

    Verma, Santosh Kumar

    2015-01-01

    This paper is an attempt to map the global land acquisitions with a focus on Indian MNCs in acquiring overseas land for agricultural purposes. It tries to outline the contemporary political economy of capital accumulation at the global level, especially, in the emerging developing economies like India and China, where the emergence of a new capitalist class has engaged itself into acquisition of land and control of other natural resources in Africa, Latin America, Eastern Europe and South Eas...

  15. International Surface Temperature Initiative (ISTI) Global Land Surface Temperature Databank - Stage 3 Monthly

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Land Surface Temperature Databank contains monthly timescale mean, maximum, and minimum temperature for approximately 40,000 stations globally. It was...

  16. Investigation of land ice-ocean interaction with a fully coupled ice-ocean model: 1. Model description and behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldberg, D. N.; Little, C. M.; Sergienko, O. V.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Hallberg, R.; Oppenheimer, M.

    2012-06-01

    Antarctic ice shelves interact closely with the ocean cavities beneath them, with ice shelf geometry influencing ocean cavity circulation, and heat from the ocean driving changes in the ice shelves, as well as the grounded ice streams that feed them. We present a new coupled model of an ice stream-ice shelf-ocean system that is used to study this interaction. The model is capable of representing a moving grounding line and dynamically responding ocean circulation within the ice shelf cavity. Idealized experiments designed to investigate the response of the coupled system to instantaneous increases in ocean temperature show ice-ocean system responses on multiple timescales. Melt rates and ice shelf basal slopes near the grounding line adjust in 1-2 years, and downstream advection of the resulting ice shelf thinning takes place on decadal timescales. Retreat of the grounding line and adjustment of grounded ice takes place on a much longer timescale, and the system takes several centuries to reach a new steady state. During this slow retreat, and in the absence of either an upward-or downward-sloping bed or long-term trends in ocean heat content, the ice shelf and melt rates maintain a characteristic pattern relative to the grounding line.

  17. Farms and funds: investment funds in the global land rush

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buxton, Abbi; Campanale, Mark; Cotula, Lorenzo

    2012-01-15

    Investment funds show a growing interest in farmland and agriculture. They are buying up land and agribusinesses in developing countries with the expectation of high long-term returns linked to rising land prices, growing populations and increasing demand for food. While the media has reported extensively on the involvement of these funds in the global land rush, the mechanics remain little understood by the broader public. What is the interest and what is driving it? Who are the players and what processes do their investment decisions go through? What are the impacts in recipient countries? And what action can be taken to promote investments that genuinely support local people?.

  18. Characteristic Seismic Waves Associated with Cryosphere Dynamics in Eastern Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masaki Kanao

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Several kinds of natural source signals are recorded by seismic exploration stations on the continental ice sheet in Eastern Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica, during 2002 austral summer. They include not only tectonic earthquakes, but also ice-related phenomena possibly involving recent global climate change. The recorded signals are classified into (1 teleseismic events, (2 local ice quakes, and (3 unidentified events (X-phases. The teleseismic waves show the high signal-to-noise ratio in spite of the small magnitude of the event; this indicates that it is highly feasible to study not only the local shallow structure but also the deep structure of the earth by using teleseismic events. Frequency spectra of the all waveforms represent discordances along the observation seismic profile. The abrupt change of topography in the valley along the seismic profile might cause both the anomalous frequency content and travel times. Finally, an origin of the X-phases is speculated as the intraplate earthquakes or possibly large ice-quakes (glacial earthquakes around Antarctica, involving global warming appeared in polar region.

  19. Land-use change and global climate policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gitz, V.

    2004-03-01

    This PhD thesis assess the role of land-use dynamics and carbon sequestration within climate policies. First, it describes the emergence, from the Rio-1992 to the Marrakech Accords (2001), of diplomatic controversies upon carbon sinks, in the context of the progressive constitution of a scientific basis on terrestrial carbon sinks. It questions the ability of the actual form of international climate regime to generate the appropriate incentives to sequester within the forestry sector in developed countries, or to control tropical deforestation. Second, the contribution of land-use change to atmospheric CO 2 rise is quantified using a newly designed model of the global carbon cycle and regional land-use (OSCAR). We show that carbon emitted via land-use is not equivalent to fossil carbon emission in respect to atmospheric CO 2 rise. This effect, all the more than land-use emissions are increasing, requires a greater mitigation effort to stabilize atmospheric CO 2 . Finally, optimal timing of mixed climate policies involving fossil emissions mitigation and biological sequestration is assessed within an inter temporal cost-benefit framework. We show that the social value of sequestered carbon depends on anticipating future climate damages. Within optimal control models, this links the timing of sequestration to fossil effort and to the evolution of climate damages; if the latter are uncertain, but might be revealed at a later date, then it might be optimal to reserve part of the limited sequestration potential to cut off an eventual future abatement cost peak, were a climate surprise to finally imply stringent concentration ceilings. (author)

  20. Food supply and bioenergy production within the global cropland planetary boundary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henry, R C; Engström, K; Olin, S; Alexander, P; Arneth, A; Rounsevell, M D A

    2018-01-01

    Supplying food for the anticipated global population of over 9 billion in 2050 under changing climate conditions is one of the major challenges of the 21st century. Agricultural expansion and intensification contributes to global environmental change and risks the long-term sustainability of the planet. It has been proposed that no more than 15% of the global ice-free land surface should be converted to cropland. Bioenergy production for land-based climate mitigation places additional pressure on limited land resources. Here we test normative targets of food supply and bioenergy production within the cropland planetary boundary using a global land-use model. The results suggest supplying the global population with adequate food is possible without cropland expansion exceeding the planetary boundary. Yet this requires an increase in food production, especially in developing countries, as well as a decrease in global crop yield gaps. However, under current assumptions of future food requirements, it was not possible to also produce significant amounts of first generation bioenergy without cropland expansion. These results suggest that meeting food and bioenergy demands within the planetary boundaries would need a shift away from current trends, for example, requiring major change in the demand-side of the food system or advancing biotechnologies.

  1. Observation and modeling of snow melt and superimposed ice formation on sea ice

    OpenAIRE

    Nicolaus, Marcel; Haas, Christian

    2004-01-01

    Sea ice plays a key role within the global climate system. It covers some 7% of earths surface and processes a strong seasonal cycle. Snow on sea ice even amplifies the importance of sea ice in the coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean system, because it dominates surface properties and energy balance (incl. albedo).Several quantitative observations of summer sea ice and its snow cover show the formation of superimposed ice and a gap layer underneath, which was found to be associated to high standing ...

  2. Effects of Model Resolution and Ocean Mixing on Forced Ice-Ocean Physical and Biogeochemical Simulations Using Global and Regional System Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Meibing; Deal, Clara; Maslowski, Wieslaw; Matrai, Patricia; Roberts, Andrew; Osinski, Robert; Lee, Younjoo J.; Frants, Marina; Elliott, Scott; Jeffery, Nicole; Hunke, Elizabeth; Wang, Shanlin

    2018-01-01

    The current coarse-resolution global Community Earth System Model (CESM) can reproduce major and large-scale patterns but is still missing some key biogeochemical features in the Arctic Ocean, e.g., low surface nutrients in the Canada Basin. We incorporated the CESM Version 1 ocean biogeochemical code into the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) and coupled it with a sea-ice algal module to investigate model limitations. Four ice-ocean hindcast cases are compared with various observations: two in a global 1° (40˜60 km in the Arctic) grid: G1deg and G1deg-OLD with/without new sea-ice processes incorporated; two on RASM's 1/12° (˜9 km) grid R9km and R9km-NB with/without a subgrid scale brine rejection parameterization which improves ocean vertical mixing under sea ice. Higher-resolution and new sea-ice processes contributed to lower model errors in sea-ice extent, ice thickness, and ice algae. In the Bering Sea shelf, only higher resolution contributed to lower model errors in salinity, nitrate (NO3), and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a). In the Arctic Basin, model errors in mixed layer depth (MLD) were reduced 36% by brine rejection parameterization, 20% by new sea-ice processes, and 6% by higher resolution. The NO3 concentration biases were caused by both MLD bias and coarse resolution, because of excessive horizontal mixing of high NO3 from the Chukchi Sea into the Canada Basin in coarse resolution models. R9km showed improvements over G1deg on NO3, but not on Chl-a, likely due to light limitation under snow and ice cover in the Arctic Basin.

  3. International Surface Temperature Initiative (ISTI) Global Land Surface Temperature Databank - Stage 2 Daily

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The global land surface temperature databank contains monthly timescale mean, max, and min temperature for approximately 40,000 stations globally. It was developed...

  4. International Surface Temperature Initiative (ISTI) Global Land Surface Temperature Databank - Stage 2 Monthly

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The global land surface temperature databank contains monthly timescale mean, max, and min temperature for approximately 40,000 stations globally. It was developed...

  5. International Surface Temperature Initiative (ISTI) Global Land Surface Temperature Databank - Stage 1 Monthly

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The global land surface temperature databank contains monthly timescale mean, max, and min temperature for approximately 40,000 stations globally. It was developed...

  6. International Surface Temperature Initiative (ISTI) Global Land Surface Temperature Databank - Stage 1 Daily

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The global land surface temperature databank contains monthly timescale mean, max, and min temperature for approximately 40,000 stations globally. It was developed...

  7. The emergence of land change science for global environmental change and sustainability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Turner II, B.L.; Lambin, E.F.; Reenberg, Anette

    2007-01-01

      Land change science has emerged as a fundamental component of global environmental change and sustainability research.  This interdisciplinary field seeks to understand the dynamics of land-cover and land-use as a coupled human-environment system in order to address theory, concepts, models......, and applications relevant to environmental and societal problems, including the intersection of the two.  The major components and advances in land change are addressed: observation and monitoring; understanding the coupled system-causes, impacts, and consequences; modeling; and synthesis issues.  The six articles...

  8. Estimation of Global Vegetation Productivity from Global LAnd Surface Satellite Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tao Yu

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Accurately estimating vegetation productivity is important in research on terrestrial ecosystems, carbon cycles and climate change. Eight-day gross primary production (GPP and annual net primary production (NPP are contained in MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS products (MOD17, which are considered the first operational datasets for monitoring global vegetation productivity. However, the cloud-contaminated MODIS leaf area index (LAI and Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FPAR retrievals may introduce some considerable errors to MODIS GPP and NPP products. In this paper, global eight-day GPP and eight-day NPP were first estimated based on Global LAnd Surface Satellite (GLASS LAI and FPAR products. Then, GPP and NPP estimates were validated by FLUXNET GPP data and BigFoot NPP data and were compared with MODIS GPP and NPP products. Compared with MODIS GPP, a time series showed that estimated GLASS GPP in our study was more temporally continuous and spatially complete with smoother trajectories. Validated with FLUXNET GPP and BigFoot NPP, we demonstrated that estimated GLASS GPP and NPP achieved higher precision for most vegetation types.

  9. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Global Land Surface Air Temperature Analysis

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A station observation-based global land monthly mean surface air temperature dataset at 0.5 0.5 latitude-longitude resolution for the period from 1948 to the present...

  10. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Global Land Surface Air Temperature Analysis

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A station observation-based global land monthly mean surface air temperature dataset at 0.5 x 0.5 latitude-longitude resolution for the period from 1948 to the...

  11. The influence of ice sheets on temperature during the past 38 million years inferred from a one-dimensional ice sheet–climate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. B. Stap

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Since the inception of the Antarctic ice sheet at the Eocene–Oligocene transition (∼ 34 Myr ago, land ice has played a crucial role in Earth's climate. Through feedbacks in the climate system, land ice variability modifies atmospheric temperature changes induced by orbital, topographical, and greenhouse gas variations. Quantification of these feedbacks on long timescales has hitherto scarcely been undertaken. In this study, we use a zonally averaged energy balance climate model bidirectionally coupled to a one-dimensional ice sheet model, capturing the ice–albedo and surface–height–temperature feedbacks. Potentially important transient changes in topographic boundary conditions by tectonics and erosion are not taken into account but are briefly discussed. The relative simplicity of the coupled model allows us to perform integrations over the past 38 Myr in a fully transient fashion using a benthic oxygen isotope record as forcing to inversely simulate CO2. Firstly, we find that the results of the simulations over the past 5 Myr are dependent on whether the model run is started at 5 or 38 Myr ago. This is because the relation between CO2 and temperature is subject to hysteresis. When the climate cools from very high CO2 levels, as in the longer transient 38 Myr run, temperatures in the lower CO2 range of the past 5 Myr are higher than when the climate is initialised at low temperatures. Consequently, the modelled CO2 concentrations depend on the initial state. Taking the realistic warm initialisation into account, we come to a best estimate of CO2, temperature, ice-volume-equivalent sea level, and benthic δ18O over the past 38 Myr. Secondly, we study the influence of ice sheets on the evolution of global temperature and polar amplification by comparing runs with ice sheet–climate interaction switched on and off. By passing only albedo or surface height changes to the climate model, we can distinguish the

  12. Historical Changes in the Land Use Connected with Appropriation of Agricultural Land – Case Study of Cadastral Areas Dolní Věstonice and Modřice (Czech Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szturc Jan

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The article focuses on the issue of agricultural soil sealing in the Dolní Věstonice and Modřice cadastres (South Moravian Region. Available data and map resources were used for this purpose (historical and up-to-date. Data was processed using manual digitalisation which helped to generate the needed map output. The decrease in area of agricultural land is analysed in individual periods starting in the year 1824 (source of data stable cadastre - the first half of the 19th century until the present, and the sealing of different types of plots and soil kinds is assessed according to Evaluated Soil-Ecological Units (ESEU. In most cases, agricultural land sealing is associated with municipal expansion. To compare future development, potential (forthcoming agricultural land sealing proposed within the valid landscape plans was also explored. Likewise, the overall price of sealed plots in both locations was calculated. The results show that there was a significant change in the use of both model territories between 1824 and the present. In Modřice, the area of the built-up area was changed from 16 ha (1824 to 409 ha (2016. The area of the site has expanded from 90% to agricultural land. The most significant change in this area is the development of builtup areas on agricultural land. In the model territory of Dolní Věstonice, the area of the built-up area increased from 16 ha (1824 to 48 ha (2016. The area of the site has expanded from 70% to agricultural land. Due to the construction of water reservoirs “Nové Mlýny”, the area of water bodies increased by 569 ha (during the period 1824- 2016. The water reservoirs occupy 65% of the cadastral area of Dolní Věstonice. The most significant change in landscape is the increase in water areas in Dolní Věstonice. Should this trend persist, an extensive reduction in agricultural soil and ensuing problems associated with sustainable agriculture, potentially also deficient food resources must be

  13. Ice Velocity Mapping of Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica by Matching Surface Undulations Measured by Icesat Laser Altimetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Choon-Ki; Han, Shin-Chan; Yu, Jaehyung; Scambos, Ted A.; Seo, Ki-Weon

    2012-01-01

    We present a novel method for estimating the surface horizontal velocity on ice shelves using laser altimetrydata from the Ice Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat; 20032009). The method matches undulations measured at crossover points between successive campaigns.

  14. Magnitude and variability of land evaporation and its components at the global scale

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Miralles, D.G.; de Jeu, R.A.M.; Gash, J.H.C.; Holmes, T.R.H.; Dolman, A.J.

    2011-01-01

    A process-based methodology is applied to estimate land-surface evaporation from multi-satellite information. GLEAM (Global Land-surface Evaporation: the Amsterdam Methodology) combines a wide range of remotely-sensed observations to derive daily actual evaporation and its different components. Soil

  15. Final deglaciation of the Scandinavian Ice Sheet and implications for the Holocene global sea-level budget

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuzzone, Joshua K.; Clark, Peter U.; Carlson, Anders E.; Ullman, David J.; Rinterknecht, Vincent R.; Milne, Glenn A.; Lunkka, Juha-Pekka; Wohlfarth, Barbara; Marcott, Shaun A.; Caffee, Marc

    2016-08-01

    The last deglaciation of the Scandinavian Ice Sheet (SIS) from ∼ 21, 000 to 13,000 yr ago is well-constrained by several hundred 10Be and 14C ages. The subsequent retreat history, however, is established primarily from minimum-limiting 14C ages and incomplete Baltic-Sea varve records, leaving a substantial fraction of final SIS retreat history poorly constrained. Here we develop a high-resolution chronology for the final deglaciation of the SIS based on 79 10Be cosmogenic exposure dates sampled along three transects spanning southern to northern Sweden and Finland. Combining this new chronology with existing 10Be ages on deglaciation since the Last Glacial Maximum shows that rates of SIS margin retreat were strongly influenced by deglacial millennial-scale climate variability and its effect on surface mass balance, with regional modulation of retreat associated with dynamical controls. Ice-volume estimates constrained by our new chronology suggest that the SIS contributed ∼ 8 m sea-level equivalent to global sea-level rise between ∼14.5 ka and 10 ka. Final deglaciation was largely complete by ∼10.5 ka, with highest rates of sea-level rise occurring during the Bølling-Allerød, a 50% decrease during the Younger Dryas, and a rapid increase during the early Holocene. Combining our SIS volume estimates with estimated contributions from other remaining Northern Hemisphere ice sheets suggests that the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) contributed 14.4 ± 5.9 m to global sea-level rise since ∼13 ka. This new constraint supports those studies that indicate that an ice volume of 15 m or more of equivalent sea-level rise was lost from the AIS during the last deglaciation.

  16. AMSR-E/Aqua Monthly Global Microwave Land Surface Emissivity, Version 1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set is a global land emissivity product using passive microwave observations from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - Earth Observing System...

  17. Global land and water grabbing for food and bioenergy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rulli, M. C.; D'Odorico, P.

    2014-12-01

    The increasing demand for food, fibers and biofuels, the consequently escalating prices of agricultural products, and the uncertainty of international food markets have recently drawn the attention of governments and corporations toward investments in productive agricultural land, mostly in developing countries. Since 2000 more than 37 million hectares of arable land have been purchased or leased by foreign investors worldwide. The targeted regions are typically located in areas where crop yields are relatively low because of lack of modern technology. It is expected that in the long run large scale investments in agriculture and the consequent development of commercial farming will bring the technology required to close the existing crop yield gaps. Recently, a number of studies and reports have documented the process of foreign land acquisition, while the associated appropriation of land based resources (e.g., water and crops) has remained poorly investigated. The amount of food this land can produce and the number of people it could feed still needs to be quantified. It is also unclear to what extent the acquired land will be used to for biofuel production and the role played by U.S. and E.U. bioenergy policies as drivers of the ongoing land rush. The environmental impacts of these investments in agriculture require adequate investigation. Here we provide a global quantitative assessment of the rates of water and crop appropriation potentially associated with large scale land acquisitions. We evaluate the associated impacts on the food and energy security of both target and investors' countries, and highlight the societal and environmental implications of the land rush phenomenon.

  18. global assessment of gross and net land change dynamics for current conditions and future scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Fuchs

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The consideration of gross land changes, meaning all area gains and losses within a pixel or administrative unit (e.g. country, plays an essential role in the estimation of total land changes. Gross land changes affect the magnitude of total land changes, which feeds back to the attribution of biogeochemical and biophysical processes related to climate change in Earth system models. Global empirical studies on gross land changes are currently lacking. Whilst the relevance of gross changes for global change has been indicated in the literature, it is not accounted for in future land change scenarios. In this study, we extract gross and net land change dynamics from large-scale and high-resolution (30–100 m remote sensing products to create a new global gross and net change dataset. Subsequently, we developed an approach to integrate our empirically derived gross and net changes with the results of future simulation models by accounting for the gross and net change addressed by the land use model and the gross and net change that is below the resolution of modelling. Based on our empirical data, we found that gross land change within 0.5° grid cells was substantially larger than net changes in all parts of the world. As 0.5° grid cells are a standard resolution of Earth system models, this leads to an underestimation of the amount of change. This finding contradicts earlier studies, which assumed gross land changes to appear in shifting cultivation areas only. Applied in a future scenario, the consideration of gross land changes led to approximately 50 % more land changes globally compared to a net land change representation. Gross land changes were most important in heterogeneous land systems with multiple land uses (e.g. shifting cultivation, smallholder farming, and agro-forestry systems. Moreover, the importance of gross changes decreased over time due to further polarization and intensification of land use. Our results serve as

  19. Spatiotemporal models of global soil organic carbon stock to support land degradation assessments at regional and global scales: limitations, challenges and opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hengl, Tomislav; Heuvelink, Gerard; Sanderman, Jonathan; MacMillan, Robert

    2017-04-01

    There is an increasing interest in fitting and applying spatiotemporal models that can be used to assess and monitor soil organic carbon stocks (SOCS), for example, in support of the '4 pourmille' initiative aiming at soil carbon sequestration towards climate change adaptation and mitigation and UN's Land Degradation Neutrality indicators and similar degradation assessment projects at regional and global scales. The land cover mapping community has already produced several spatiotemporal data sets with global coverage and at relatively fine resolution e.g. USGS MODIS land cover annual maps for period 2000-2014; European Space Agency land cover maps at 300 m resolution for the year 2000, 2005 and 2010; Chinese GlobeLand30 dataset available for years 2000 and 2010; Columbia University's WRI GlobalForestWatch with deforestation maps at 30 m resolution for the period 2000-2016 (Hansen et al. 2013). These data sets can be used for land degradation assessment and scenario testing at global and regional scales (Wei et al 2014). Currently, however, no compatible global spatiotemporal data sets exist on status of soil quality and/or soil health (Powlson et al. 2013). This paper describes an initial effort to devise and evaluate a procedure for mapping spatio-temporal changes in SOC stocks using a complete stack of soil forming factors (climate, relief, land cover, land use, lithology and living organisms) represented mainly through remote sensing based time series of Earth images. For model building we used some 75,000 geo-referenced soil profiles and a stacks space-time covariates (land cover, land use, biomass, climate) at two standard resolutions: (1) 10 km resolution with data available for period 1920-2014 and (2) 1000 m resolution with data available for period 2000-2014. The initial results show that, although it is technically feasible to produce space time estimates of SOCS that demonstrate the procedure, the estimates are relatively uncertain (<45% of variation

  20. An Ice Model That is Consistent with Composite Rheology in GIA Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, P.; Patrick, W.

    2017-12-01

    There are several popular approaches in constructing ice history models. One of them is mainly based on thermo-mechanical ice models with forcing or boundary conditions inferred from paleoclimate data. The second one is mainly based on the observed response of the Earth to glacial loading and unloading, a process called Glacial Isostatic Adjustment or GIA. The third approach is a hybrid version of the first and second approaches. In this presentation, we will follow the second approach which also uses geological data such as ice flow, terminal moraine data and simple ice dynamic for the ice sheet re-construction (Peltier & Andrew 1976). The global ice model ICE-6G (Peltier et al. 2015) and all its predecessors (Tushingham & Peltier 1991, Peltier 1994, 1996, 2004, Lambeck et al. 2014) are constructed this way with the assumption that mantle rheology is linear. However, high temperature creep experiments on mantle rocks show that non-linear creep laws can also operate in the mantle. Since both linear (e.g. diffusion creep) and non-linear (e.g. dislocation) creep laws can operate simultaneously in the mantle, mantle rheology is likely composite, where the total creep is the sum of both linear and onlinear creep. Preliminary GIA studies found that composite rheology can fit regional RSL observations better than that from linear rheology(e.g. van der Wal et al. 2010). The aim of this paper is to construct ice models in Laurentia and Fennoscandia using this second approach, but with composite rheology, so that its predictions can fit GIA observations such as global RSL data, land uplift rate and g-dot simultaneously in addition to geological data and simple ice dynamics. The g-dot or gravity-rate-of-change data is from the GRACE gravity mission but with the effects of hydrology removed. Our GIA model is based on the Coupled Laplace-Finite Element method as described in Wu(2004) and van der Wal et al.(2010). It is found that composite rheology generally supports a thicker

  1. Analysis of Sea Ice Cover Sensitivity in Global Climate Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. P. Parhomenko

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents joint calculations using a 3D atmospheric general circulation model, an ocean model, and a sea ice evolution model. The purpose of the work is to analyze a seasonal and annual evolution of sea ice, long-term variability of a model ice cover, and its sensitivity to some parameters of model as well to define atmosphere-ice-ocean interaction.Results of 100 years simulations of Arctic basin sea ice evolution are analyzed. There are significant (about 0.5 m inter-annual fluctuations of an ice cover.The ice - atmosphere sensible heat flux reduced by 10% leads to the growth of average sea ice thickness within the limits of 0.05 m – 0.1 m. However in separate spatial points the thickness decreases up to 0.5 m. An analysis of the seasonably changing average ice thickness with decreasing, as compared to the basic variant by 0.05 of clear sea ice albedo and that of snow shows the ice thickness reduction in a range from 0.2 m up to 0.6 m, and the change maximum falls for the summer season of intensive melting. The spatial distribution of ice thickness changes shows, that on the large part of the Arctic Ocean there was a reduction of ice thickness down to 1 m. However, there is also an area of some increase of the ice layer basically in a range up to 0.2 m (Beaufort Sea. The 0.05 decrease of sea ice snow albedo leads to reduction of average ice thickness approximately by 0.2 m, and this value slightly depends on a season. In the following experiment the ocean – ice thermal interaction influence on the ice cover is estimated. It is carried out by increase of a heat flux from ocean to the bottom surface of sea ice by 2 W/sq. m in comparison with base variant. The analysis demonstrates, that the average ice thickness reduces in a range from 0.2 m to 0.35 m. There are small seasonal changes of this value.The numerical experiments results have shown, that an ice cover and its seasonal evolution rather strongly depend on varied parameters

  2. The Copernicus Global Land Service: present and future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacaze, Roselyne; Smets, Bruno; Trigo, Isabel; Calvet, Jean-Christophe; Jann, Alexander; Camacho, Fernando; Baret, Frédéric; Kidd, Richard; Defourny, Pierre; Tansey, Kevin; Pacholczyk, Philippe; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Szintai, Balazs

    2013-04-01

    From 1st January 2013, the Copernicus Global Land Service is operational, providing continuously to European, African and International users a set of biophysical variables describing the vegetation conditions, the energy budget at the continental surface and the water cycle over the whole globe at one kilometer resolution. These generic products can serve numerous applications such as agriculture and food security monitoring, weather forecast, climate change impact studies, water, forest and natural resources management. The Copernicus Global Land Service is built on the achievements of the BioPar component of the FP7 geoland2 project. Essential Climate Variables like the Leaf Area Index (LAI), the Fraction of PAR absorbed by the vegetation (FAPAR), the surface albedo, the Land Surface Temperature, the soil moisture, the burnt areas, the areas of water bodies, and additional vegetation indices, are generated every hour, every day or every 10 days on a reliable and automatic basis from Earth Observation satellite data. Beside this timely production, the available historical archives have been processed, using the same innovative algorithms, to get consistent time series as long as possible. As an example, more than 30 years of LAI and FAPAR relying on NOAA/AVHRR sensors (from 1981 to 2000) and SPOT/VGT sensors (from 1999 to the present) are now available. All products are accessible, free of charge and after registration, at the following address: http://www.geoland2.eu/core-mapping-services/biopar.html. Documentation describing the physical methodologies, the technical properties of products, and the results of validation exercises can also be downloaded. In view of service continuity, research and development are performed on two parallel ways. On one hand, the existing retrieval methodologies will be adapted to new input data sets (e.g. Proba-V and Sentinel-3 at 1km resolution) that will be used in replacement of current sensor (SPOT/VGT) which reached the end

  3. Ice loading model for Glacial Isostatic Adjustment in the Barents Sea constrained by GRACE gravity observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Root, Bart; Tarasov, Lev; van der Wal, Wouter

    2014-05-01

    The global ice budget is still under discussion because the observed 120-130 m eustatic sea level equivalent since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) can not be explained by the current knowledge of land-ice melt after the LGM. One possible location for the missing ice is the Barents Sea Region, which was completely covered with ice during the LGM. This is deduced from relative sea level observations on Svalbard, Novaya Zemlya and the North coast of Scandinavia. However, there are no observations in the middle of the Barents Sea that capture the post-glacial uplift. With increased precision and longer time series of monthly gravity observations of the GRACE satellite mission it is possible to constrain Glacial Isostatic Adjustment in the center of the Barents Sea. This study investigates the extra constraint provided by GRACE data for modeling the past ice geometry in the Barents Sea. We use CSR release 5 data from February 2003 to July 2013. The GRACE data is corrected for the past 10 years of secular decline of glacier ice on Svalbard, Novaya Zemlya and Frans Joseph Land. With numerical GIA models for a radially symmetric Earth, we model the expected gravity changes and compare these with the GRACE observations after smoothing with a 250 km Gaussian filter. The comparisons show that for the viscosity profile VM5a, ICE-5G has too strong a gravity signal compared to GRACE. The regional calibrated ice sheet model (GLAC) of Tarasov appears to fit the amplitude of the GRACE signal. However, the GRACE data are very sensitive to the ice-melt correction, especially for Novaya Zemlya. Furthermore, the ice mass should be more concentrated to the middle of the Barents Sea. Alternative viscosity models confirm these conclusions.

  4. Physical controls on the storage of methane in land fast sea ice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Jiayun; Tison, Jean Louis; Carnat, Gauthier

    2014-01-01

    regulated the storage of CH4 in sea ice: bubble formation and sea ice permeability. Gas bubble formation from solubility changes had favoured the accumulation of CH4 in the ice at the beginning of ice growth. CH4 retention in sea ice was then twice as efficient as that of salt; this also explains...... the overall higher CH4 concentrations in brine than in the under-ice water. As sea ice thickened, gas bubble formation became less efficient so that CH4 was then mainly trapped in the dissolved state. The increase of sea ice permeability during ice melt marks the end of CH4 storage.......We report on methane (CH4) dynamics in landfast sea ice, brine and under-ice seawater at Barrow in 2009. The CH4 concentrations in under-ice water ranged between 25.9 and 116.4 nmol L−1sw, indicating a superaturation of 700 to 3100% relative to the atmosphere. In comparison, the CH4 concentrations...

  5. A mechanism for land-ocean contrasts in global monsoon trends in a warming climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fasullo, J. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, CAS/NCAR, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2012-09-15

    A central paradox of the global monsoon record involves reported decreases in rainfall over land during an era in which the global hydrologic cycle is both expected and observed to intensify. It is within this context that this work develops a physical basis for both interpreting the observed record and anticipating changes in the monsoons in a warming climate while bolstering the concept of the global monsoon in the context of shared feedbacks. The global-land monsoon record across multiple reanalyses is first assessed. Trends that in other studies have been taken as real are shown to likely be spurious as a result of changes in the assimilated data streams both prior to and during the satellite era. Nonetheless, based on satellite estimates, robust increases in monsoon rainfall over ocean do exist and a physical basis for this land-ocean contrast remains lacking. To address the contrast's causes, simulated trends are therefore assessed. While projections of total rainfall are inconsistent across models, the robust land-ocean contrast identified in observations is confirmed. A feedback mechanism is proposed rooted in the facts that land areas warm disproportionately relative to ocean, and onshore flow is the chief source of monsoonal moisture. Reductions in lower tropospheric relative humidity over land domains are therefore inevitable and these have direct consequences for the monsoonal convective environment including an increase in the lifting condensation level and a shift in the distribution of convection generally towards less frequent and potentially more intense events. The mechanism is interpreted as an important modulating influence on the ''rich-get-richer'' mechanism. Caveats for regional monsoons exist and are discussed. (orig.)

  6. Coastal glaciers advanced onto Jameson Land, East Greenland during the late glacial–early Holocene Milne Land Stade

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helena Alexanderson

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We report on 10Be and optically stimulated luminescence ages from moraines and glaciolacustrine sediments on eastern Jameson Land, East Greenland. Sampled landforms and sediment are associated with advances of outlet glaciers from the local Liverpool Land ice cap situated in the coastal Scoresby Sund region. Previous studies have tentatively correlated these advances with the Milne Land Stade moraines, which are prominent moraine sets deposited by mountain glaciers in the inner Scoresby Sund region. Recent constraints on the formation of the outer and inner of these moraines have suggested two advances of local glaciers, one prior to or during the Younger Dryas and another during the Preboreal. In this paper, we test the correlation of the Liverpool Land glacial advance with the Milne Land Stade. Our results show that outlet glaciers from the Liverpool Land ice cap reached ice-marginal positions marked by moraines in east-facing valleys on Jameson Land sometime during late glacial–early Holocene time (ca. 13–11 Kya. This confirms the correlation of these moraines with the Milne Land Stade moraines described elsewhere in the Scoresby Sund region.

  7. Architecture of the global land acquisition system: applying the tools of network science to identify key vulnerabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seaquist, J W; Li Johansson, Emma; Nicholas, Kimberly A

    2014-01-01

    Global land acquisitions, often dubbed ‘land grabbing’ are increasingly becoming drivers of land change. We use the tools of network science to describe the connectivity of the global acquisition system. We find that 126 countries participate in this form of global land trade. Importers are concentrated in the Global North, the emerging economies of Asia, and the Middle East, while exporters are confined to the Global South and Eastern Europe. A small handful of countries account for the majority of land acquisitions (particularly China, the UK, and the US), the cumulative distribution of which is best described by a power law. We also find that countries with many land trading partners play a disproportionately central role in providing connectivity across the network with the shortest trading path between any two countries traversing either China, the US, or the UK over a third of the time. The land acquisition network is characterized by very few trading cliques and therefore characterized by a low degree of preferential trading or regionalization. We also show that countries with many export partners trade land with countries with few import partners, and vice versa, meaning that less developed countries have a large array of export partnerships with developed countries, but very few import partnerships (dissassortative relationship). Finally, we find that the structure of the network is potentially prone to propagating crises (e.g., if importing countries become dependent on crops exported from their land trading partners). This network analysis approach can be used to quantitatively analyze and understand telecoupled systems as well as to anticipate and diagnose the potential effects of telecoupling. (letter)

  8. Feeding proteins to livestock: Global land use and food vs. feed competition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manceron Stéphane

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Competition between direct consumption of plant production and the feeding of livestock is key to global food availability. This is because livestock consume edible commodities that could be available for (food insecure populations but also because it diverts arable land from food production. The share of total plant production redirected towards feeding livestock is (roughly known but estimations of land surfaces virtually occupied by livestock production are scarce. In this study, following up on the Agrimonde Terra** project, we estimate areas devoted to the feeding livestock. First, we estimate the protein composition of an averaged feed basket at the global scale in 2005 and detail the evolution of the protein-source feed component during the period 1961–2009. We focus on protein-rich crops such as oil crops and show its proportion in the global livestock diets has tripled since 1960, though only accounting for about one fourth of total proteins. Then, we estimate land virtually occupied by crop feed at the global scale using a set of straightforward hypotheses. Our estimates suggest that, although livestock and feed production has continuously increased and despite uncertainties in available data, competition for land between feed and food uses has decreased over the last two decades. The share of areas cultivated for feed requirements decreased from about 50% in the 1970s to 37% nowadays. This trend is attributable to the increase of crop yields and to a decrease of the share of cereals in livestock diets to the benefit of oilseeds by-products. However, estimating the share of total areas used for feed is complicated by the significant role played by by-products.

  9. Recent Progresses in Incorporating Human Land-Water Management into Global Land Surface Models Toward Their Integration into Earth System Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pokhrel, Yadu N.; Hanasaki, Naota; Wada, Yoshihide; Kim, Hyungjun

    2016-01-01

    The global water cycle has been profoundly affected by human land-water management. As the changes in the water cycle on land can affect the functioning of a wide range of biophysical and biogeochemical processes of the Earth system, it is essential to represent human land-water management in Earth system models (ESMs). During the recent past, noteworthy progress has been made in large-scale modeling of human impacts on the water cycle but sufficient advancements have not yet been made in integrating the newly developed schemes into ESMs. This study reviews the progresses made in incorporating human factors in large-scale hydrological models and their integration into ESMs. The study focuses primarily on the recent advancements and existing challenges in incorporating human impacts in global land surface models (LSMs) as a way forward to the development of ESMs with humans as integral components, but a brief review of global hydrological models (GHMs) is also provided. The study begins with the general overview of human impacts on the water cycle. Then, the algorithms currently employed to represent irrigation, reservoir operation, and groundwater pumping are discussed. Next, methodological deficiencies in current modeling approaches and existing challenges are identified. Furthermore, light is shed on the sources of uncertainties associated with model parameterizations, grid resolution, and datasets used for forcing and validation. Finally, representing human land-water management in LSMs is highlighted as an important research direction toward developing integrated models using ESM frameworks for the holistic study of human-water interactions within the Earths system.

  10. Land Use, Climate, and Water Resources—Global Stages of Interaction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sujay S. Kaushal

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Land use and climate change can accelerate the depletion of freshwater resources that support humans and ecosystem services on a global scale. Here, we briefly review studies from around the world, and highlight those in this special issue. We identify stages that characterize increasing interaction between land use and climate change. During the first stage, hydrologic modifications and the built environment amplify overland flow via processes associated with runoff-dominated ecosystems (e.g., soil compaction, impervious surface cover, drainage, and channelization. During the second stage, changes in water storage impact the capacity of ecosystems to buffer extremes in water quantity and quality (e.g., either losses in snowpack, wetlands, and groundwater recharge or gains in water and nutrient storage behind dams in reservoirs. During the third stage, extremes in water quantity and quality contribute to losses in ecosystem services and water security (e.g., clean drinking water, flood mitigation, and habitat availability. During the final stage, management and restoration strategies attempt to regain lost ecosystem structure, function, and services but need to adapt to climate change. By anticipating the increasing interaction between land use and climate change, intervention points can be identified, and management strategies can be adjusted to improve outcomes for realistic expectations. Overall, global water security cannot be adequately restored without considering an increasing interaction between land use and climate change across progressive stages and our ever-increasing human domination of the water cycle from degradation to ecosystem restoration.

  11. Land Use, Climate, and Water Resources-Global Stages of Interaction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaushal, Sujay S; Gold, Arthur J; Mayer, Paul M

    2017-10-24

    Land use and climate change can accelerate the depletion of freshwater resources that support humans and ecosystem services on a global scale. Here, we briefly review studies from around the world, and highlight those in this special issue. We identify stages that characterize increasing interaction between land use and climate change. During the first stage, hydrologic modifications and the built environment amplify overland flow via processes associated with runoff-dominated ecosystems (e.g., soil compaction, impervious surface cover, drainage, and channelization). During the second stage, changes in water storage impact the capacity of ecosystems to buffer extremes in water quantity and quality (e.g., either losses in snowpack, wetlands, and groundwater recharge or gains in water and nutrient storage behind dams in reservoirs). During the third stage, extremes in water quantity and quality contribute to losses in ecosystem services and water security (e.g., clean drinking water, flood mitigation, and habitat availability). During the final stage, management and restoration strategies attempt to regain lost ecosystem structure, function, and services but need to adapt to climate change. By anticipating the increasing interaction between land use and climate change, intervention points can be identified, and management strategies can be adjusted to improve outcomes for realistic expectations. Overall, global water security cannot be adequately restored without considering an increasing interaction between land use and climate change across progressive stages and our ever-increasing human domination of the water cycle from degradation to ecosystem restoration.

  12. Long time management of fossil fuel resources to limit global warming and avoid ice age onsets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaffer, Gary

    2009-02-01

    There are about 5000 billion tons of fossil fuel carbon in accessible reserves. Combustion of all this carbon within the next few centuries would force high atmospheric CO2 content and extreme global warming. On the other hand, low atmospheric CO2 content favors the onset of an ice age when changes in the Earth's orbit lead to low summer insolation at high northern latitudes. Here I present Earth System Model projections showing that typical reduction targets for fossil fuel use in the present century could limit ongoing global warming to less than one degree Celcius above present. Furthermore, the projections show that combustion pulses of remaining fossil fuel reserves could then be tailored to raise atmospheric CO2 content high and long enough to parry forcing of ice age onsets by summer insolation minima far into the future. Our present interglacial period could be extended by about 500,000 years in this way.

  13. Revised estimates of Greenland ice sheet thinning histories based on ice-core records

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lecavalier, B.S.; Milne, G.A.; Fisher, D.A.

    2013-01-01

    -based reconstructions and, to some extent, the estimated elevation histories. A key component of the ice core analysis involved removing the influence of vertical surface motion on the dO signal measured from the Agassiz and Renland ice caps. We re-visit the original analysis with the intent to determine if the use...... of more accurate land uplift curves can account for some of the above noted discrepancy. To improve on the original analysis, we apply a geophysical model of glacial isostatic adjustment calibrated to sea-level records from the Queen Elizabeth Islands and Greenland to calculate the influence of land...... in this selection is further complicated by the possible influence of Innuitian ice during the early Holocene (12-8 ka BP). Our results indicate that a more accurate treatment of the uplift correction leads to elevation histories that are, in general, shifted down relative to the original curves at GRIP, NGRIP, DYE...

  14. Climatic Changes on Tibetan Plateau Based on Ice Core Records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, T.

    2008-12-01

    Climatic changes have been reconstructed for the Tibetan Plateau based on ice core records. The Guliya ice core on the Tibetan Plateau presents climatic changes in the past 100,000 years, thus is comparative with that from Vostok ice core in Antarctica and GISP2 record in Arctic. These three records share an important common feature, i.e., our climate is not stable. It is also evident that the major patterns of climatic changes are similar on the earth. Why does climatic change over the earth follow a same pattern? It might be attributed to solar radiation. We found that the cold periods correspond to low insolation periods, and warm periods to high insolation periods. We found abrupt climatic change in the ice core climatic records, which presented dramatic temperature variation of as much as 10 °C in 50 or 60 years. Our major challenge in the study of both climate and environment is that greenhouse gases such as CO2, CH4 are possibly amplifying global warming, though at what degree remains unclear. One of the ways to understand the role of greenhouse gases is to reconstruct the past greenhouse gases recorded in ice. In 1997, we drilled an ice core from 7100 m a.s.l. in the Himalayas to reconstruct methane record. Based on the record, we found seasonal cycles in methane variation. In particular, the methane concentration is high in summer, suggestiing active methane emission from wet land in summer. Based on the seasonal cycle, we can reconstruct the methane fluctuation history in the past 500 years. The most prominent feature of the methane record in the Himalayan ice core is the abrupt increase since 1850 A.D.. This is closely related to the industrial revolution worldwide. We can also observe sudden decrease in methane concentration during the World War I and World War II. It implies that the industrial revolution has dominated the atmospheric greenhouse gas emission for about 100 years. Besides, the average methane concentration in the Himalayan ice core is

  15. Changes in Extremely Hot Summers over the Global Land Area under Various Warming Targets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lei; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong; Yao, Yao; Zhao, Zongci

    2015-01-01

    Summer temperature extremes over the global land area were investigated by comparing 26 models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) with observations from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Climate Research Unit (CRU). Monthly data of the observations and models were averaged for each season, and statistics were calculated for individual models before averaging them to obtain ensemble means. The summers with temperature anomalies (relative to 1951-1980) exceeding 3σ (σ is based on the local internal variability) are defined as "extremely hot". The models well reproduced the statistical characteristics evolution, and partly captured the spatial distributions of historical summer temperature extremes. If the global mean temperature increases 2°C relative to the pre-industrial level, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur over nearly 40% of the land area (multi-model ensemble mean projection). Summers that exceed 5σ warming are projected to occur over approximately 10% of the global land area, which were rarely observed during the reference period. Scenarios reaching warming levels of 3°C to 5°C were also analyzed. After exceeding the 5°C warming target, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur throughout the entire global land area, and summers that exceed 5σ warming would become common over 70% of the land area. In addition, the areas affected by "extremely hot" summers are expected to rapidly expand by more than 25%/°C as the global mean temperature increases by up to 3°C before slowing to less than 16%/°C as the temperature continues to increase by more than 3°C. The area that experiences summers with warming of 5σ or more above the warming target of 2°C is likely to maintain rapid expansion of greater than 17%/°C. To reduce the impacts and damage from severely hot summers, the global mean temperature increase should remain low.

  16. Countering Ice Ages: Re-directing Public Concern from Global Warming (GW) to Global Cooling (GC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singer, S. F.

    2016-02-01

    I present here three arguments in favor of such a drastic shift - which involves also a shift in current policies, such as mitigation of the greenhouse (GH) gas carbon dioxide. 1. Historical evidence shows that cooling, even on a regional or local scale, is much more damaging than warming. The key threat is to agriculture, leading to failure of harvests, followed by famine, starvation, disease, and mass deaths. 2. Also, GC is reasonably sure, while GW is iffy. The evidence from deep-sea sediment cores and ice cores shows some 17 (Milankovitch-style) glaciations in the past 2 million years, each typically lasting 100,000 years, interrupted by warm inter-glacials, typically around 10,000-yr duration. The most recent glaciation ended rather suddenly about 12,000 years ago. We are now in the warm Holocene, which is expected to end soon. Most of humanity may not survive the next, inevitable glaciation. We need to consider also the warming-cooling (Dansgaard-Oeschger-Bond - DOB) cycles, which seem solar-controlled and have a period of approx 1000-1500 years; its most recent cooling phase, the "Little Ice Age" (LIA), ended about 200 years ago. For details, see Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1500 years by Singer &Avery [2007]. 3. Available technology seems adequate to assure human survival - at least in industrialized nations. The main threat is warfare, driven by competition for food and other essential resources. With nuclear weapons and delivery systems widely dispersed, the outcome of future wars is difficult to predict. Using geo-engineering to overcome a future cooling looks promising for both types of ice ages - with relatively low cost and low risk to the physical and biological environment. I will describe how to neutralize the "trigger" of major glaciations, and propose a particular greenhouse scheme that may counter the cooling phase of DOB cycles.

  17. Remote sensing for global change, climate change and atmosphere and ocean forecasting. Volume 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    This volume is separated in three sessions. First part is on remote sensing for global change (with global modelling, land cover change on global scale, ocean colour studies of marine biosphere, biological and hydrological interactions and large scale experiments). Second part is on remote sensing for climate change (with earth radiation and clouds, sea ice, global climate research programme). Third part is on remote sensing for atmosphere and ocean forecasting (with temperatures and humidity, winds, data assimilation, cloud imagery, sea surface temperature, ocean waves and topography). (A.B.). refs., figs., tabs

  18. Investigation of land ice-ocean interaction with a fully coupled ice-ocean model: 2. Sensitivity to external forcings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldberg, D. N.; Little, C. M.; Sergienko, O. V.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Hallberg, R.; Oppenheimer, M.

    2012-06-01

    A coupled ice stream-ice shelf-ocean cavity model is used to assess the sensitivity of the coupled system to far-field ocean temperatures, varying from 0.0 to 1.8°C, as well as sensitivity to the parameters controlling grounded ice flow. A response to warming is seen in grounding line retreat and grounded ice loss that cannot be inferred from the response of integrated melt rates alone. This is due to concentrated thinning at the ice shelf lateral margin, and to processes that contribute to this thinning. Parameters controlling the flow of grounded ice have a strong influence on the response to sub-ice shelf melting, but this influence is not seen until several years after an initial perturbation in temperatures. The simulated melt rates are on the order of that observed for Pine Island Glacier in the 1990s. However, retreat rates are much slower, possibly due to unrepresented bedrock features.

  19. Estimating Antarctica land topography from GRACE gravity and ICESat altimetry data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, I.; Chao, B. F.; Chen, Y.

    2009-12-01

    We propose a new method combining GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) gravity and ICESat (Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite) altimetry data to estimate the land topography for Antarctica. Antarctica is the fifth-largest continent in the world and about 98% of Antarctica is covered by ice, where in-situ measurements are difficult. Some experimental airborne radar and ground-based radar data have revealed very limited land topography beneath heavy ice sheet. To estimate the land topography for the full coverage of Antarctica, we combine GRACE data that indicate the mass distribution, with data of ICESat laser altimetry that provide high-resolution mapping of ice topography. Our approach is actually based on some geological constraints: assuming uniform densities of the land and ice considering the Airy-type isostasy. In the beginning we construct an initial model for the ice thickness and land topography based on the BEDMAP ice thickness and ICESat data. Thereafter we forward compute the model’s gravity field and compare with the GRACE observed data. Our initial model undergoes the adjustments to improve the fit between modeled results and the observed data. Final examination is done by comparing our results with previous but sparse observations of ice thickness to reconfirm the reliability of our results. As the gravitational inversion problem is non-unique, our estimating result is just one of all possibilities constrained by available data in optimal way.

  20. Evidence for the former existence of a thicker ice sheet on the Vestfjella nunataks in western Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lintinen, P.

    1996-06-01

    Full Text Available Vestfjella (73-74°S, 13-16°W is a 130 km long nunatak range in western Dronning Maud Land in East Antarctica, and its northern and southern ends are situated close to the present ice sheet grounding-line. Striations and lodgement till on nunatak Basen indicate that the northernmost Vestfjella nunataks were formerly covered by a thicker Antarctic ice sheet. Striations on the summit ridge of nunatak Plogen indicate that the minimum change in ice thickness has been 700 m at the present ice sheet grounding-line. The relatively uniform oldest striation direction on different nunatak summits and the altitude of Plogen, which is less than 200 m lower than the highest Vestfjella summits, indicates that the whole of Vestfjella may have been covered by an ice sheet. Oxidation of till surface stones and an increased clay fraction in the upper part of the till layer were the only indications of soil formation on Basen. The unweathered nature of the Basen lodgement till indicate a relatively young age for deglaciation. This conclusion is also supported by age determinations and sedimentological data obtained from Weddell Sea sediments by Norwegian researchers, suggesting that a grounded ice sheet extended to the shelf edge at around 21 ka B.P. However the age of the glaciation which covered Basen and Plogen and the subsequent deglaciation is not based on precise dates and therefore the late Wisconsinan/Weichselian age is only a working hypothesis.

  1. Sea Ice Detection Based on Differential Delay-Doppler Maps from UK TechDemoSat-1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongchao Zhu

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS signals can be exploited to remotely sense atmosphere and land and ocean surface to retrieve a range of geophysical parameters. This paper proposes two new methods, termed as power-summation of differential Delay-Doppler Maps (PS-D and pixel-number of differential Delay-Doppler Maps (PN-D, to distinguish between sea ice and sea water using differential Delay-Doppler Maps (dDDMs. PS-D and PN-D make use of power-summation and pixel-number of dDDMs, respectively, to measure the degree of difference between two DDMs so as to determine the transition state (water-water, water-ice, ice-ice and ice-water and hence ice and water are detected. Moreover, an adaptive incoherent averaging of DDMs is employed to improve the computational efficiency. A large number of DDMs recorded by UK TechDemoSat-1 (TDS-1 over the Arctic region are used to test the proposed sea ice detection methods. Through evaluating against ground-truth measurements from the Ocean Sea Ice SAF, the proposed PS-D and PN-D methods achieve a probability of detection of 99.72% and 99.69% respectively, while the probability of false detection is 0.28% and 0.31% respectively.

  2. Global observation-based diagnosis of soil moisture control on land surface flux partition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallego-Elvira, Belen; Taylor, Christopher M.; Harris, Phil P.; Ghent, Darren; Veal, Karen L.; Folwell, Sonja S.

    2016-04-01

    Soil moisture plays a central role in the partition of available energy at the land surface between sensible and latent heat flux to the atmosphere. As soils dry out, evapotranspiration becomes water-limited ("stressed"), and both land surface temperature (LST) and sensible heat flux rise as a result. This change in surface behaviour during dry spells directly affects critical processes in both the land and the atmosphere. Soil water deficits are often a precursor in heat waves, and they control where feedbacks on precipitation become significant. State-of-the-art global climate model (GCM) simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) disagree on where and how strongly the surface energy budget is limited by soil moisture. Evaluation of GCM simulations at global scale is still a major challenge owing to the scarcity and uncertainty of observational datasets of land surface fluxes and soil moisture at the appropriate scale. Earth observation offers the potential to test how well GCM land schemes simulate hydrological controls on surface fluxes. In particular, satellite observations of LST provide indirect information about the surface energy partition at 1km resolution globally. Here, we present a potentially powerful methodology to evaluate soil moisture stress on surface fluxes within GCMs. Our diagnostic, Relative Warming Rate (RWR), is a measure of how rapidly the land warms relative to the overlying atmosphere during dry spells lasting at least 10 days. Under clear skies, this is a proxy for the change in sensible heat flux as soil dries out. We derived RWR from MODIS Terra and Aqua LST observations, meteorological re-analyses and satellite rainfall datasets. Globally we found that on average, the land warmed up during dry spells for 97% of the observed surface between 60S and 60N. For 73% of the area, the land warmed faster than the atmosphere (positive RWR), indicating water stressed conditions and increases in sensible heat flux

  3. High-frequency and meso-scale winter sea-ice variability in the Southern Ocean in a high-resolution global ocean model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stössel, Achim; von Storch, Jin-Song; Notz, Dirk; Haak, Helmuth; Gerdes, Rüdiger

    2018-03-01

    This study is on high-frequency temporal variability (HFV) and meso-scale spatial variability (MSV) of winter sea-ice drift in the Southern Ocean simulated with a global high-resolution (0.1°) sea ice-ocean model. Hourly model output is used to distinguish MSV characteristics via patterns of mean kinetic energy (MKE) and turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) of ice drift, surface currents, and wind stress, and HFV characteristics via time series of raw variables and correlations. We find that (1) along the ice edge, the MSV of ice drift coincides with that of surface currents, in particular such due to ocean eddies; (2) along the coast, the MKE of ice drift is substantially larger than its TKE and coincides with the MKE of wind stress; (3) in the interior of the ice pack, the TKE of ice drift is larger than its MKE, mostly following the TKE pattern of wind stress; (4) the HFV of ice drift is dominated by weather events, and, in the absence of tidal currents, locally and to a much smaller degree by inertial oscillations; (5) along the ice edge, the curl of the ice drift is highly correlated with that of surface currents, mostly reflecting the impact of ocean eddies. Where ocean eddies occur and the ice is relatively thin, ice velocity is characterized by enhanced relative vorticity, largely matching that of surface currents. Along the ice edge, ocean eddies produce distinct ice filaments, the realism of which is largely confirmed by high-resolution satellite passive-microwave data.

  4. Smaller global and regional carbon emissions from gross land use change when considering sub-grid secondary land cohorts in a global dynamic vegetation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, Chao; Ciais, Philippe; Li, Wei

    2018-02-01

    Several modelling studies reported elevated carbon emissions from historical land use change (ELUC) by including bidirectional transitions on the sub-grid scale (termed gross land use change), dominated by shifting cultivation and other land turnover processes. However, most dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) that have implemented gross land use change either do not account for sub-grid secondary lands, or often have only one single secondary land tile over a model grid cell and thus cannot account for various rotation lengths in shifting cultivation and associated secondary forest age dynamics. Therefore, it remains uncertain how realistic the past ELUC estimations are and how estimated ELUC will differ between the two modelling approaches with and without multiple sub-grid secondary land cohorts - in particular secondary forest cohorts. Here we investigated historical ELUC over 1501-2005 by including sub-grid forest age dynamics in a DGVM. We run two simulations, one with no secondary forests (Sageless) and the other with sub-grid secondary forests of six age classes whose demography is driven by historical land use change (Sage). Estimated global ELUC for 1501-2005 is 176 Pg C in Sage compared to 197 Pg C in Sageless. The lower ELUC values in Sage arise mainly from shifting cultivation in the tropics under an assumed constant rotation length of 15 years, being 27 Pg C in Sage in contrast to 46 Pg C in Sageless. Estimated cumulative ELUC values from wood harvest in the Sage simulation (31 Pg C) are however slightly higher than Sageless (27 Pg C) when the model is forced by reconstructed harvested areas because secondary forests targeted in Sage for harvest priority are insufficient to meet the prescribed harvest area, leading to wood harvest being dominated by old primary forests. An alternative approach to quantify wood harvest ELUC, i.e. always harvesting the close-to-mature forests in both Sageless and Sage, yields similar values of 33 Pg C by both

  5. Image-based change estimation (ICE): monitoring land use, land cover and agent of change information for all lands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevin Megown; Andy Lister; Paul Patterson; Tracey Frescino; Dennis Jacobs; Jeremy Webb; Nicholas Daniels; Mark Finco

    2015-01-01

    The Image-based Change Estimation (ICE) protocols have been designed to respond to several Agency and Department information requirements. These include provisions set forth by the 2014 Farm Bill, the Forest Service Action Plan and Strategic Plan, the 2012 Planning Rule, and the 2015 Planning Directives. ICE outputs support the information needs by providing estimates...

  6. Evolving Understanding of Antarctic Ice-Sheet Physics and Ambiguity in Probabilistic Sea-Level Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopp, Robert E.; DeConto, Robert M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Hay, Carling C.; Horton, Radley M.; Kulp, Scott; Oppenheimer, Michael; Pollard, David; Strauss, Benjamin H.

    2017-12-01

    Mechanisms such as ice-shelf hydrofracturing and ice-cliff collapse may rapidly increase discharge from marine-based ice sheets. Here, we link a probabilistic framework for sea-level projections to a small ensemble of Antarctic ice-sheet (AIS) simulations incorporating these physical processes to explore their influence on global-mean sea-level (GMSL) and relative sea-level (RSL). We compare the new projections to past results using expert assessment and structured expert elicitation about AIS changes. Under high greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 8.5), median projected 21st century GMSL rise increases from 79 to 146 cm. Without protective measures, revised median RSL projections would by 2100 submerge land currently home to 153 million people, an increase of 44 million. The use of a physical model, rather than simple parameterizations assuming constant acceleration of ice loss, increases forcing sensitivity: overlap between the central 90% of simulations for 2100 for RCP 8.5 (93-243 cm) and RCP 2.6 (26-98 cm) is minimal. By 2300, the gap between median GMSL estimates for RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6 reaches >10 m, with median RSL projections for RCP 8.5 jeopardizing land now occupied by 950 million people (versus 167 million for RCP 2.6). The minimal correlation between the contribution of AIS to GMSL by 2050 and that in 2100 and beyond implies current sea-level observations cannot exclude future extreme outcomes. The sensitivity of post-2050 projections to deeply uncertain physics highlights the need for robust decision and adaptive management frameworks.

  7. Evolving Understanding of Antarctic Ice-Sheet Physics and Ambiguity in Probabilistic Sea-Level Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopp, Robert E.; DeConto, Robert M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Hay, Carling C.; Horton, Radley M.; Kulp, Scott; Oppenheimer, Michael; Pollard, David; Strauss, Benjamin

    2017-01-01

    Mechanisms such as ice-shelf hydrofracturing and ice-cliff collapse may rapidly increase discharge from marine-based ice sheets. Here, we link a probabilistic framework for sea-level projections to a small ensemble of Antarctic ice-sheet (AIS) simulations incorporating these physical processes to explore their influence on global-mean sea-level (GMSL) and relative sea-level (RSL). We compare the new projections to past results using expert assessment and structured expert elicitation about AIS changes. Under high greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 8.5), median projected 21st century GMSL rise increases from 79 to 146 cm. Without protective measures, revised median RSL projections would by 2100 submerge land currently home to 153 million people, an increase of 44 million. The use of a physical model, rather than simple parameterizations assuming constant acceleration of ice loss, increases forcing sensitivity: overlap between the central 90% of simulations for 2100 for RCP 8.5 (93-243 cm) and RCP 2.6 (26-98 cm) is minimal. By 2300, the gap between median GMSL estimates for RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6 reaches >10 m, with median RSL projections for RCP 8.5 jeopardizing land now occupied by 950 million people (versus 167 million for RCP 2.6). The minimal correlation between the contribution of AIS to GMSL by 2050 and that in 2100 and beyond implies current sea-level observations cannot exclude future extreme outcomes. The sensitivity of post-2050 projections to deeply uncertain physics highlights the need for robust decision and adaptive management frameworks.

  8. Land management in support of sustainability and the global agenda

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Enemark, Stig

    2007-01-01

    This paper provides an overall understanding of the concept of land administration systems for dealing with rights, restrictions, and responsibilities in future spatially enabled government. In addition, it presents the role of FIG with regard to building the capacity in this area and responding...... to the global agenda....

  9. Supporting evidence from the EPICA Dronning Maud Land ice core for atmospheric CO2 changes during the past millennium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siegenthaler, Urs; Monnin, Eric; Kawamura, Kenji; Spahni, Renato; Schwander, Jakob; Stauffer, Bernhard; Stocker, Thomas F.; Fischer, Hubertus

    2005-01-01

    The most direct method of investigating past variations of the atmospheric CO 2 concentration before 1958, when continuous direct atmospheric CO 2 measurements started, is the analysis of air extracted from suitable ice cores. Here we present a new detailed CO 2 record from the Dronning Maud Land (DML) ice core, drilled in the framework of the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica (EPICA) and some new measurements on a previously drilled ice core from the South Pole. The DML CO 2 record shows an increase from about 278 to 282 parts per million by volume (ppmv) between ad 1000 and ad 1200 and a fairly continuous decrease to a mean value of about 277 ppmv around ad 1700. While the new South Pole measurements agree well with DML at the minimum at ad 1700 they are on average about 2 ppmv lower during the period ad 1000-1500. Published measurements from the coastal high-accumulation site Law Dome are considered as very reliable because of the reproducibility of the measurements, high temporal resolution and an accurate time scale. Other Antarctic ice cores could not, or only partly, reproduce the pre-industrial measurements from Law Dome. A comparison of the trends of DML and Law Dome shows a general agreement. However we should be able to rule out co-variations caused by the same artefact. Two possible effects are discussed, first production of CO 2 by chemical reactions and second diffusion of dissolved air through the ice matrix into the bubbles. While the first effect cannot be totally excluded, comparison of the Law Dome and DML record shows that dissolved air diffusing to bubbles cannot be responsible for the pre-industrial variation. Therefore, the new record is not a proof of the Law Dome results but the first very strong support from an ice core of the Antarctic plateau

  10. Vortex ice in nanostructured superconductors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reichhardt, Charles [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Reichhardt, Cynthia J [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Libal, Andras J [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2008-01-01

    We demonstrate using numerical simulations of nanostructured superconductors that it is possible to realize vortex ice states that are analogous to square and kagome ice. The system can be brought into a state that obeys either global or local ice rules by applying an external current according to an annealing protocol. We explore the breakdown of the ice rules due to disorder in the nanostructure array and show that in square ice, topological defects appear along grain boundaries, while in kagome ice, individual defects appear. We argue that the vortex system offers significant advantages over other artificial ice systems.

  11. How reversible is sea ice loss?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. K. Ridley

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available It is well accepted that increasing atmospheric CO2 results in global warming, leading to a decline in polar sea ice area. Here, the specific question of whether there is a tipping point in the sea ice cover is investigated. The global climate model HadCM3 is used to map the trajectory of sea ice area under idealised scenarios. The atmospheric CO2 is first ramped up to four times pre-industrial levels (4 × CO2, then ramped down to pre-industrial levels. We also examine the impact of stabilising climate at 4 × CO2 prior to ramping CO2 down to pre-industrial levels. Against global mean temperature, Arctic sea ice area is reversible, while the Antarctic sea ice shows some asymmetric behaviour – its rate of change slower, with falling temperatures, than its rate of change with rising temperatures. However, we show that the asymmetric behaviour is driven by hemispherical differences in temperature change between transient and stabilisation periods. We find no irreversible behaviour in the sea ice cover.

  12. Turbulent heat transfer as a control of platelet ice growth in supercooled under-ice ocean boundary layers

    Science.gov (United States)

    McPhee, Miles G.; Stevens, Craig L.; Smith, Inga J.; Robinson, Natalie J.

    2016-04-01

    Late winter measurements of turbulent quantities in tidally modulated flow under land-fast sea ice near the Erebus Glacier Tongue, McMurdo Sound, Antarctica, identified processes that influence growth at the interface of an ice surface in contact with supercooled seawater. The data show that turbulent heat exchange at the ocean-ice boundary is characterized by the product of friction velocity and (negative) water temperature departure from freezing, analogous to similar results for moderate melting rates in seawater above freezing. Platelet ice growth appears to increase the hydraulic roughness (drag) of fast ice compared with undeformed fast ice without platelets. Platelet growth in supercooled water under thick ice appears to be rate-limited by turbulent heat transfer and that this is a significant factor to be considered in mass transfer at the underside of ice shelves and sea ice in the vicinity of ice shelves.

  13. A sensitivity analysis for a thermomechanical model of the Antarctic ice sheet and ice shelves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baratelli, F.; Castellani, G.; Vassena, C.; Giudici, M.

    2012-04-01

    The outcomes of an ice sheet model depend on a number of parameters and physical quantities which are often estimated with large uncertainty, because of lack of sufficient experimental measurements in such remote environments. Therefore, the efforts to improve the accuracy of the predictions of ice sheet models by including more physical processes and interactions with atmosphere, hydrosphere and lithosphere can be affected by the inaccuracy of the fundamental input data. A sensitivity analysis can help to understand which are the input data that most affect the different predictions of the model. In this context, a finite difference thermomechanical ice sheet model based on the Shallow-Ice Approximation (SIA) and on the Shallow-Shelf Approximation (SSA) has been developed and applied for the simulation of the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet and ice shelves for the last 200 000 years. The sensitivity analysis of the model outcomes (e.g., the volume of the ice sheet and of the ice shelves, the basal melt rate of the ice sheet, the mean velocity of the Ross and Ronne-Filchner ice shelves, the wet area at the base of the ice sheet) with respect to the model parameters (e.g., the basal sliding coefficient, the geothermal heat flux, the present-day surface accumulation and temperature, the mean ice shelves viscosity, the melt rate at the base of the ice shelves) has been performed by computing three synthetic numerical indices: two local sensitivity indices and a global sensitivity index. Local sensitivity indices imply a linearization of the model and neglect both non-linear and joint effects of the parameters. The global variance-based sensitivity index, instead, takes into account the complete variability of the input parameters but is usually conducted with a Monte Carlo approach which is computationally very demanding for non-linear complex models. Therefore, the global sensitivity index has been computed using a development of the model outputs in a

  14. The global land rush: what the evidence reveals about scale and geography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cotula, Lorenzo; Polack, Emily

    2012-04-15

    In developing countries, millions of people depend on land for their food and livelihoods. But a global 'land rush' — moves to acquire large tracts of land across the world — is increasing competition for this vital resource. A growing body of evidence points to the scale, geography, players and key characteristics of the phenomenon. Some of this is based on media reports and some on country level inventories. Much of the data cannot be compared due to variations in methodology, timescale and the differing criteria for what makes a land deal. Further improving data and analysis is critical. But while exact numbers will keep changing, all evidence indicates that land acquisitions are happening quickly and on a large scale. So we urgently need to get on with developing appropriate responses.

  15. Sea ice dynamics across the Mid-Pleistocene transition in the Bering Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Detlef, H; Belt, S T; Sosdian, S M; Smik, L; Lear, C H; Hall, I R; Cabedo-Sanz, P; Husum, K; Kender, S

    2018-03-05

    Sea ice and associated feedback mechanisms play an important role for both long- and short-term climate change. Our ability to predict future sea ice extent, however, hinges on a greater understanding of past sea ice dynamics. Here we investigate sea ice changes in the eastern Bering Sea prior to, across, and after the Mid-Pleistocene transition (MPT). The sea ice record, based on the Arctic sea ice biomarker IP 25 and related open water proxies from the International Ocean Discovery Program Site U1343, shows a substantial increase in sea ice extent across the MPT. The occurrence of late-glacial/deglacial sea ice maxima are consistent with sea ice/land ice hysteresis and land-glacier retreat via the temperature-precipitation feedback. We also identify interactions of sea ice with phytoplankton growth and ocean circulation patterns, which have important implications for glacial North Pacific Intermediate Water formation and potentially North Pacific abyssal carbon storage.

  16. Globalisation and the foreignisation of space: The seven processes driving the current global land grab.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zoomers, E.B.

    2010-01-01

    The current global land grab is causing radical changes in the use and ownership of land. The main process driving the land grab, or ‘foreignisation of space’, as highlighted in the media and the emerging literature is the production of food and biofuel for export in the aftermath of recent food

  17. Global albedo change and radiative cooling from anthropogenic land cover change, 1700 to 2005 based on MODIS, land use harmonization, radiative kernels, and reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghimire, Bardan; Williams, Christopher A.; Masek, Jeffrey; Gao, Feng; Wang, Zhuosen; Schaaf, Crystal; He, Tao

    2014-12-01

    Widespread anthropogenic land cover change over the last five centuries has influenced the global climate system through both biogeochemical and biophysical processes. Models indicate that warming from carbon emissions associated with land cover conversion has been partially offset by cooling from elevated albedo, but considerable uncertainty remains partly because of uncertainty in model treatments of albedo. This study incorporates a new spatially and temporally explicit, land cover specific albedo product derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer with a historical land use data set (Land Use Harmonization product) to provide more precise, observationally derived estimates of albedo impacts from anthropogenic land cover change with a complete range of data set specific uncertainty. The mean annual global albedo increase due to land cover change during 1700-2005 was estimated as 0.00106 ± 0.00008 (mean ± standard deviation), mainly driven by snow exposure due to land cover transitions from natural vegetation to agriculture. This translates to a top-of-atmosphere radiative cooling of -0.15 ± 0.1 W m-2 (mean ± standard deviation). Our estimate was in the middle of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report range of -0.05 to -0.25 W m-2 and incorporates variability in albedo within land cover classes.

  18. Reducing uncertainty in high-resolution sea ice models.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peterson, Kara J.; Bochev, Pavel Blagoveston

    2013-07-01

    Arctic sea ice is an important component of the global climate system, reflecting a significant amount of solar radiation, insulating the ocean from the atmosphere and influencing ocean circulation by modifying the salinity of the upper ocean. The thickness and extent of Arctic sea ice have shown a significant decline in recent decades with implications for global climate as well as regional geopolitics. Increasing interest in exploration as well as climate feedback effects make predictive mathematical modeling of sea ice a task of tremendous practical import. Satellite data obtained over the last few decades have provided a wealth of information on sea ice motion and deformation. The data clearly show that ice deformation is focused along narrow linear features and this type of deformation is not well-represented in existing models. To improve sea ice dynamics we have incorporated an anisotropic rheology into the Los Alamos National Laboratory global sea ice model, CICE. Sensitivity analyses were performed using the Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications (DAKOTA) to determine the impact of material parameters on sea ice response functions. Two material strength parameters that exhibited the most significant impact on responses were further analyzed to evaluate their influence on quantitative comparisons between model output and data. The sensitivity analysis along with ten year model runs indicate that while the anisotropic rheology provides some benefit in velocity predictions, additional improvements are required to make this material model a viable alternative for global sea ice simulations.

  19. Cascading water underneath Wilkes Land, East Antarctic ice sheet, observed using altimetry and digital elevation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flament, T.; Berthier, E.; Rémy, F.

    2014-04-01

    We describe a major subglacial lake drainage close to the ice divide in Wilkes Land, East Antarctica, and the subsequent cascading of water underneath the ice sheet toward the coast. To analyse the event, we combined altimetry data from several sources and subglacial topography. We estimated the total volume of water that drained from Lake CookE2 by differencing digital elevation models (DEM) derived from ASTER and SPOT5 stereo imagery acquired in January 2006 and February 2012. At 5.2 ± 1.5 km3, this is the largest single subglacial drainage event reported so far in Antarctica. Elevation differences between ICESat laser altimetry spanning 2003-2009 and the SPOT5 DEM indicate that the discharge started in November 2006 and lasted approximately 2 years. A 13 m uplift of the surface, corresponding to a refilling of about 0.6 ± 0.3 km3, was observed between the end of the discharge in October 2008 and February 2012. Using the 35-day temporal resolution of Envisat radar altimetry, we monitored the subsequent filling and drainage of connected subglacial lakes located downstream of CookE2. The total volume of water traveling within the theoretical 500-km-long flow paths computed with the BEDMAP2 data set is similar to the volume that drained from Lake CookE2, and our observations suggest that most of the water released from Lake CookE2 did not reach the coast but remained trapped underneath the ice sheet. Our study illustrates how combining multiple remote sensing techniques allows monitoring of the timing and magnitude of subglacial water flow beneath the East Antarctic ice sheet.

  20. Land use, climate, and water resources – global stages of interaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Land use and climate change can accelerate the depletion of freshwater resources that support humans and ecosystem services on a global scale. Here, we briefly review studies from around the world, including those in this special issue. We identify stages, which characterize i...

  1. Estimation of Antarctic Land-Fast Sea Ice Algal Biomass and Snow Thickness From Under-Ice Radiance Spectra in Two Contrasting Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wongpan, P.; Meiners, K. M.; Langhorne, P. J.; Heil, P.; Smith, I. J.; Leonard, G. H.; Massom, R. A.; Clementson, L. A.; Haskell, T. G.

    2018-03-01

    Fast ice is an important component of Antarctic coastal marine ecosystems, providing a prolific habitat for ice algal communities. This work examines the relationships between normalized difference indices (NDI) calculated from under-ice radiance measurements and sea ice algal biomass and snow thickness for Antarctic fast ice. While this technique has been calibrated to assess biomass in Arctic fast ice and pack ice, as well as Antarctic pack ice, relationships are currently lacking for Antarctic fast ice characterized by bottom ice algae communities with high algal biomass. We analyze measurements along transects at two contrasting Antarctic fast ice sites in terms of platelet ice presence: near and distant from an ice shelf, i.e., in McMurdo Sound and off Davis Station, respectively. Snow and ice thickness, and ice salinity and temperature measurements support our paired in situ optical and biological measurements. Analyses show that NDI wavelength pairs near the first chlorophyll a (chl a) absorption peak (≈440 nm) explain up to 70% of the total variability in algal biomass. Eighty-eight percent of snow thickness variability is explained using an NDI with a wavelength pair of 648 and 567 nm. Accounting for pigment packaging effects by including the ratio of chl a-specific absorption coefficients improved the NDI-based algal biomass estimation only slightly. Our new observation-based algorithms can be used to estimate Antarctic fast ice algal biomass and snow thickness noninvasively, for example, by using moored sensors (time series) or mapping their spatial distributions using underwater vehicles.

  2. Analytical Retrieval of Global Land Surface Emissivity Maps at AMSR-E passive microwave frequencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norouzi, H.; Temimi, M.; Khanbilvardi, R.

    2009-12-01

    Land emissivity is a crucial boundary condition in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) modeling. Land emissivity is also a key indicator of land surface and subsurface properties. The objective of this study, supported by NOAA-NESDIS, is to develop global land emissivity maps using AMSR-E passive microwave measurements along with several ancillary data. The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) database has been used to obtain several inputs for the proposed approach such as land surface temperature, cloud mask and atmosphere profile. The Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) has been used to estimate upwelling and downwelling atmospheric contributions. Although it is well known that correction of the atmospheric effect on brightness temperature is required at higher frequencies (over 19 GHz), our preliminary results have shown that a correction at 10.7 GHz is also necessary over specific areas. The proposed approach is based on three main steps. First, all necessary data have been collected and processed. Second, a global cloud free composite of AMSR-E data and corresponding ancillary images is created. Finally, monthly composting of emissivity maps has been performed. AMSR-E frequencies at 6.9, 10.7, 18.7, 36.5 and 89.0 GHz have been used to retrieve the emissivity. Water vapor information obtained from ISCCP (TOVS data) was used to calculate upwelling, downwelling temperatures and atmospheric transmission in order to assess the consistency of those derived from the CRTM model. The frequent land surface temperature (LST) determination (8 times a day) in the ISCCP database has allowed us to assess the diurnal cycle effect on emissivity retrieval. Differences in magnitude and phase between thermal temperature and low frequencies microwave brightness temperature have been noticed. These differences seem to vary in space and time. They also depend on soil texture and thermal inertia. The proposed methodology accounts for these factors and

  3. Isolating the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in the coupled climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kushner, Paul; Blackport, Russell

    2017-04-01

    In the coupled climate system, projected global warming drives extensive sea-ice loss, but sea-ice loss drives warming that amplifies and can be confounded with the global warming process. This makes it challenging to cleanly attribute the atmospheric circulation response to sea-ice loss within coupled earth-system model (ESM) simulations of greenhouse warming. In this study, many centuries of output from coupled ocean/atmosphere/land/sea-ice ESM simulations driven separately by sea-ice albedo reduction and by projected greenhouse-dominated radiative forcing are combined to cleanly isolate the hemispheric scale response of the circulation to sea-ice loss. To isolate the sea-ice loss signal, a pattern scaling approach is proposed in which the local multidecadal mean atmospheric response is assumed to be separately proportional to the total sea-ice loss and to the total low latitude ocean surface warming. The proposed approach estimates the response to Arctic sea-ice loss with low latitude ocean temperatures fixed and vice versa. The sea-ice response includes a high northern latitude easterly zonal wind response, an equatorward shift of the eddy driven jet, a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, an anticyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over coastal Eurasia, a cyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over the North Pacific, and increased wintertime precipitation over the west coast of North America. Many of these responses are opposed by the response to low-latitude surface warming with sea ice fixed. However, both sea-ice loss and low latitude surface warming act in concert to reduce storm track strength throughout the mid and high latitudes. The responses are similar in two related versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research earth system models, apart from the stratospheric polar vortex response. Evidence is presented that internal variability can easily contaminate the estimates if not enough independent climate states are used to construct them

  4. Spatio-temporal interpolation of daily temperatures for global land areas at 1 km resolution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kilibarda, M.; Hengl, T.; Heuvelink, G.B.M.; Graler, B.; Pebesma, E.; Tadic, M.P.; Bajat, B.

    2014-01-01

    Combined Global Surface Summary of Day and European Climate Assessment and Dataset daily meteorological data sets (around 9000 stations) were used to build spatio-temporal geostatistical models and predict daily air temperature at ground resolution of 1km for the global land mass. Predictions in

  5. Towards Global Simulation of Irrigation in a Land Surface Model: Multiple Cropping and Rice Paddy in Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaudoing, Hiroko Kato; Rodell, Matthew; Ozdogan, Mutlu

    2010-01-01

    Agricultural land use significantly influences the surface water and energy balances. Effects of irrigation on land surface states and fluxes include repartitioning of latent and sensible heat fluxes, an increase in net radiation, and an increase in soil moisture and runoff. We are working on representing irrigation practices in continental- to global-scale land surface simulation in NASA's Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). Because agricultural practices across the nations are diverse, and complex, we are attempting to capture the first-order reality of the regional practices before achieving a global implementation. This study focuses on two issues in Southeast Asia: multiple cropping and rice paddy irrigation systems. We first characterize agricultural practices in the region (i.e., crop types, growing seasons, and irrigation) using the Global data set of monthly irrigated and rainfed crop areas around the year 2000 (MIRCA2000) dataset. Rice paddy extent is identified using remote sensing products. Whether irrigated or rainfed, flooded fields need to be represented and treated explicitly. By incorporating these properties and processes into a physically based land surface model, we are able to quantify the impacts on the simulated states and fluxes.

  6. Sea-level and solid-Earth deformation feedbacks in ice sheet modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konrad, Hannes; Sasgen, Ingo; Klemann, Volker; Thoma, Malte; Grosfeld, Klaus; Martinec, Zdeněk

    2014-05-01

    The interactions of ice sheets with the sea level and the solid Earth are important factors for the stability of the ice shelves and the tributary inland ice (e.g. Thomas and Bentley, 1978; Gomez et al, 2012). First, changes in ice extent and ice thickness induce viscoelastic deformation of the Earth surface and Earth's gravity field. In turn, global and local changes in sea level and bathymetry affect the grounding line and, subsequently, alter the ice dynamic behaviour. Here, we investigate these feedbacks for a synthetic ice sheet configuration as well as for the Antarctic ice sheet using a three-dimensional thermomechanical ice sheet and shelf model, coupled to a viscoelastic solid-Earth and gravitationally self-consistent sea-level model. The respective ice sheet undergoes a forcing from rising sea level, warming ocean, and/or changing surface mass balance. The coupling is realized by exchanging ice thickness, Earth surface deformation and sea level periodically. We apply several sets of viscoelastic Earth parameters to our coupled model, e.g. simulating a low-viscous upper mantle present at the Antarctic Peninsula (Ivins et al., 2011). Special focus of our study lies on the evolution of Earth surface deformation and local sea level changes, as well as on the accompanying grounding line evolution. N. Gomez, D. Pollard, J. X. Mitrovica, P. Huybers, and P. U. Clark 2012. Evolution of a coupled marine ice sheet-sea level model, J. Geophys. Res., 117, F01013, doi:10.1029/2011JF002128. E. R. Ivins, M. M. Watkins, D.-N. Yuan, R. Dietrich, G. Casassa, and A. Rülke 2011. On-land ice loss and glacial isostatic adjustment at the Drake Passage: 2003-2009, J. Geophys. Res. 116, B02403, doi: 10.1029/2010JB007607 R. H. Thomas and C. R. Bentley 1978. A model for Holocene retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, Quaternary Research, 10 (2), pages 150-170, doi: 10.1016/0033-5894(78)90098-4.

  7. Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise and Superstorms: Evidence from Paleoclimate Data, Climate Modeling, and Modern Observations that 2C Global Warming Could Be Dangerous

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, J.; Sato, Makiko; Hearty, Paul; Ruedy, Reto; Kelley, Maxwell; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Russell, Gary; Tselioudis, George; Cao, Junji; Rignot, Eric; hide

    2016-01-01

    We use numerical climate simulations, paleoclimate data, and modern observations to study the effect of growing ice melt from Antarctica and Greenland. Meltwater tends to stabilize the ocean column, inducing amplifying feedbacks that increase subsurface ocean warming and ice shelf melting. Cold meltwater and induced dynamical effects cause ocean surface cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic, thus increasing Earth's energy imbalance and heat flux into most of the global ocean's surface. Southern Ocean surface cooling, while lower latitudes are warming, increases precipitation on the Southern Ocean, increasing ocean stratification, slowing deepwater formation, and increasing ice sheet mass loss. These feedbacks make ice sheets in contact with the ocean vulnerable to accelerating disintegration. We hypothesize that ice mass loss from the most vulnerable ice, sufficient to raise sea level several meters, is better approximated as exponential than by a more linear response. Doubling times of 10, 20 or 40 years yield multi-meter sea level rise in about 50, 100 or 200 years. Recent ice melt doubling times are near the lower end of the 10-40-year range, but the record is too short to confirm the nature of the response. The feedbacks, including subsurface ocean warming, help explain paleoclimate data and point to a dominant Southern Ocean role in controlling atmospheric CO2, which in turn exercised tight control on global temperature and sea level. The millennial (500-2000-year) timescale of deep-ocean ventilation affects the timescale for natural CO2 change and thus the timescale for paleo-global climate, ice sheet, and sea level changes, but this paleo-millennial timescale should not be misinterpreted as the timescale for ice sheet response to a rapid, large, human-made climate forcing. These climate feedbacks aid interpretation of events late in the prior interglacial, when sea level rose to C6-9m with evidence of extreme storms while Earth was less than 1 C

  8. Combining global land cover datasets to quantify agricultural expansion into forests in Latin America: Limitations and challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Persson, U. Martin

    2017-01-01

    While we know that deforestation in the tropics is increasingly driven by commercial agriculture, most tropical countries still lack recent and spatially-explicit assessments of the relative importance of pasture and cropland expansion in causing forest loss. Here we present a spatially explicit quantification of the extent to which cultivated land and grassland expanded at the expense of forests across Latin America in 2001–2011, by combining two “state-of-the-art” global datasets (Global Forest Change forest loss and GlobeLand30-2010 land cover). We further evaluate some of the limitations and challenges in doing this. We find that this approach does capture some of the major patterns of land cover following deforestation, with GlobeLand30-2010’s Grassland class (which we interpret as pasture) being the most common land cover replacing forests across Latin America. However, our analysis also reveals some major limitations to combining these land cover datasets for quantifying pasture and cropland expansion into forest. First, a simple one-to-one translation between GlobeLand30-2010’s Cultivated land and Grassland classes into cropland and pasture respectively, should not be made without caution, as GlobeLand30-2010 defines its Cultivated land to include some pastures. Comparisons with the TerraClass dataset over the Brazilian Amazon and with previous literature indicates that Cultivated land in GlobeLand30-2010 includes notable amounts of pasture and other vegetation (e.g. in Paraguay and the Brazilian Amazon). This further suggests that the approach taken here generally leads to an underestimation (of up to ~60%) of the role of pasture in replacing forest. Second, a large share (~33%) of the Global Forest Change forest loss is found to still be forest according to GlobeLand30-2010 and our analysis suggests that the accuracy of the combined datasets, especially for areas with heterogeneous land cover and/or small-scale forest loss, is still too poor for

  9. Combining global land cover datasets to quantify agricultural expansion into forests in Latin America: Limitations and challenges.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florence Pendrill

    Full Text Available While we know that deforestation in the tropics is increasingly driven by commercial agriculture, most tropical countries still lack recent and spatially-explicit assessments of the relative importance of pasture and cropland expansion in causing forest loss. Here we present a spatially explicit quantification of the extent to which cultivated land and grassland expanded at the expense of forests across Latin America in 2001-2011, by combining two "state-of-the-art" global datasets (Global Forest Change forest loss and GlobeLand30-2010 land cover. We further evaluate some of the limitations and challenges in doing this. We find that this approach does capture some of the major patterns of land cover following deforestation, with GlobeLand30-2010's Grassland class (which we interpret as pasture being the most common land cover replacing forests across Latin America. However, our analysis also reveals some major limitations to combining these land cover datasets for quantifying pasture and cropland expansion into forest. First, a simple one-to-one translation between GlobeLand30-2010's Cultivated land and Grassland classes into cropland and pasture respectively, should not be made without caution, as GlobeLand30-2010 defines its Cultivated land to include some pastures. Comparisons with the TerraClass dataset over the Brazilian Amazon and with previous literature indicates that Cultivated land in GlobeLand30-2010 includes notable amounts of pasture and other vegetation (e.g. in Paraguay and the Brazilian Amazon. This further suggests that the approach taken here generally leads to an underestimation (of up to ~60% of the role of pasture in replacing forest. Second, a large share (~33% of the Global Forest Change forest loss is found to still be forest according to GlobeLand30-2010 and our analysis suggests that the accuracy of the combined datasets, especially for areas with heterogeneous land cover and/or small-scale forest loss, is still too

  10. Ice core melt features in relation to Antarctic coastal climate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kaczmarska, M.; Isaksson, E.; Karlöf, L.; Brandt, O.; Winther, J.G.; van de Wal, R.S.W.; van den Broeke, M.R.; Johnsen, S.J.

    2006-01-01

    Measurement of light intensity transmission was carried out on an ice core S100 from coastal Dronning Maud Land (DML). Ice lenses were observed in digital pictures of the core and recorded as peaks in the light transmittance record. The frequency of ice layer occurrence was compared with climate

  11. Global Land Surface Temperature From the Along-Track Scanning Radiometers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghent, D. J.; Corlett, G. K.; Göttsche, F.-M.; Remedios, J. J.

    2017-11-01

    The Leicester Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) and Sea and Land Surface Temperature Radiometer (SLSTR) Processor for LAnd Surface Temperature (LASPLAST) provides global land surface temperature (LST) products from thermal infrared radiance data. In this paper, the state-of-the-art version of LASPLAST, as deployed in the GlobTemperature project, is described and applied to data from the Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR). The LASPLAST retrieval formulation for LST is a nadir-only, two-channel, split-window algorithm, based on biome classification, fractional vegetation, and across-track water vapor dependences. It incorporates globally robust retrieval coefficients derived using highly sampled atmosphere profiles. LASPLAST benefits from appropriate spatial resolution auxiliary information and a new probabilistic-based cloud flagging algorithm. For the first time for a satellite-derived LST product, pixel-level uncertainties characterized in terms of random, locally correlated, and systematic components are provided. The new GlobTemperature GT_ATS_2P Version 1.0 product has been validated for 1 year of AATSR data (2009) against in situ measurements acquired from "gold standard reference" stations: Gobabeb, Namibia, and Evora, Portugal; seven Surface Radiation Budget stations, and the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement station at Southern Great Plains. These data show average absolute biases for the GT_ATS_2P Version 1.0 product of 1.00 K in the daytime and 1.08 K in the nighttime. The improvements in data provenance including better accuracy, fully traceable retrieval coefficients, quantified uncertainty, and more detailed information in the new harmonized format of the GT_ATS_2P product will allow for more significant exploitation of the historical LST data record from the ATSRs and a valuable near-real-time service from the Sea and Land Surface Temperature Radiometers (SLSTRs).

  12. A web-based system for supporting global land cover data production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Gang; Chen, Jun; He, Chaoying; Li, Songnian; Wu, Hao; Liao, Anping; Peng, Shu

    2015-05-01

    Global land cover (GLC) data production and verification process is very complicated, time consuming and labor intensive, requiring huge amount of imagery data and ancillary data and involving many people, often from different geographic locations. The efficient integration of various kinds of ancillary data and effective collaborative classification in large area land cover mapping requires advanced supporting tools. This paper presents the design and development of a web-based system for supporting 30-m resolution GLC data production by combining geo-spatial web-service and Computer Support Collaborative Work (CSCW) technology. Based on the analysis of the functional and non-functional requirements from GLC mapping, a three tiers system model is proposed with four major parts, i.e., multisource data resources, data and function services, interactive mapping and production management. The prototyping and implementation of the system have been realised by a combination of Open Source Software (OSS) and commercially available off-the-shelf system. This web-based system not only facilitates the integration of heterogeneous data and services required by GLC data production, but also provides online access, visualization and analysis of the images, ancillary data and interim 30 m global land-cover maps. The system further supports online collaborative quality check and verification workflows. It has been successfully applied to China's 30-m resolution GLC mapping project, and has improved significantly the efficiency of GLC data production and verification. The concepts developed through this study should also benefit other GLC or regional land-cover data production efforts.

  13. Land-use change and global climate policies; Usage des terres et politiques climatiques globales

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gitz, V

    2004-03-15

    This PhD thesis assess the role of land-use dynamics and carbon sequestration within climate policies. First, it describes the emergence, from the Rio-1992 to the Marrakech Accords (2001), of diplomatic controversies upon carbon sinks, in the context of the progressive constitution of a scientific basis on terrestrial carbon sinks. It questions the ability of the actual form of international climate regime to generate the appropriate incentives to sequester within the forestry sector in developed countries, or to control tropical deforestation. Second, the contribution of land-use change to atmospheric CO{sub 2} rise is quantified using a newly designed model of the global carbon cycle and regional land-use (OSCAR). We show that carbon emitted via land-use is not equivalent to fossil carbon emission in respect to atmospheric CO{sub 2} rise. This effect, all the more than land-use emissions are increasing, requires a greater mitigation effort to stabilize atmospheric CO{sub 2}. Finally, optimal timing of mixed climate policies involving fossil emissions mitigation and biological sequestration is assessed within an inter temporal cost-benefit framework. We show that the social value of sequestered carbon depends on anticipating future climate damages. Within optimal control models, this links the timing of sequestration to fossil effort and to the evolution of climate damages; if the latter are uncertain, but might be revealed at a later date, then it might be optimal to reserve part of the limited sequestration potential to cut off an eventual future abatement cost peak, were a climate surprise to finally imply stringent concentration ceilings. (author)

  14. Arctic tides from GPS on sea ice

    OpenAIRE

    Kildegaard Rose, Stine; Skourup, Henriette; Forsberg, René

    2012-01-01

    The presence of sea-ice in the Arctic Ocean plays a significant role in the Arctic climate. Sea ice dampens the ocean tide amplitude with the result that global tidal models which use only astronomical data perform less accurately in the polar regions. This study presents a kinematic processing of Global Positioning System (GPS) buoys placed on sea-ice at five different sites north of Greenland for the study of sea level height and tidal analysis to improve tidal models in the Central Arctic....

  15. Flooded! An Investigation of Sea-Level Rise in a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillette, Brandon; Hamilton, Cheri

    2011-01-01

    Explore how melting ice sheets affect global sea levels. Sea-level rise (SLR) is a rise in the water level of the Earth's oceans. There are two major kinds of ice in the polar regions: sea ice and land ice. Land ice contributes to SLR and sea ice does not. This article explores the characteristics of sea ice and land ice and provides some hands-on…

  16. Thin Ice Area Extraction in the Seasonal Sea Ice Zones of the Northern Hemisphere Using Modis Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayashi, K.; Naoki, K.; Cho, K.

    2018-04-01

    Sea ice has an important role of reflecting the solar radiation back into space. However, once the sea ice area melts, the area starts to absorb the solar radiation which accelerates the global warming. This means that the trend of global warming is likely to be enhanced in sea ice areas. In this study, the authors have developed a method to extract thin ice area using reflectance data of MODIS onboard Terra and Aqua satellites of NASA. The reflectance of thin sea ice in the visible region is rather low. Moreover, since the surface of thin sea ice is likely to be wet, the reflectance of thin sea ice in the near infrared region is much lower than that of visible region. Considering these characteristics, the authors have developed a method to extract thin sea ice areas by using the reflectance data of MODIS (NASA MYD09 product, 2017) derived from MODIS L1B. By using the scatter plots of the reflectance of Band 1 (620 nm-670 nm) and Band 2 (841 nm-876 nm)) of MODIS, equations for extracting thin ice area were derived. By using those equations, most of the thin ice areas which could be recognized from MODIS images were well extracted in the seasonal sea ice zones in the Northern Hemisphere, namely the Sea of Okhotsk, the Bering Sea and the Gulf of Saint Lawrence. For some limited areas, Landsat-8 OLI images were also used for validation.

  17. Satellite Contributions to Global Change Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parkinson, Claire L.

    2009-01-01

    By providing a global view with a level playing field (no region missed because of unfavorable surface conditions or political boundaries), satellites have made major contributions to improved monitoring and understanding of our constantly changing planet. The global view has allowed surprising realizations like the relative sparsity of lightning strikes over oceans and the large-scale undulations on the massive Antarctic ice sheet. It has allowed the tracking of all sorts of phenomena, including aerosols, both natural and anthropogenic, as they move with the atmospheric circulation and impact weather and human health. But probably nothing that the global view allows is more important in the long term than its provision. of unbiased data sets to address the issue of global change, considered by many to be among the most important issues facing humankind today. With satellites we can monitor atmospheric temperatures at all latitudes and longitudes, and obtain a global average that lessens the likelihood of becoming endlessly mired in the confusions brought about by the certainty of regional differences. With satellites we can monitor greenhouse gases such as CO2 not just above individual research stations but around the globe. With satellites we can monitor the polar sea ice covers, as we have done since the late 1970s, determining and quantifying the significant reduction in Arctic sea ice and the slight growth in Antarctic sea ice over that period, With satellites we can map the full extent and changes in the Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletions that were first identified from using a single ground station; and through satellite data we have witnessed from afar land surface changes brought about by humans both intentionally, as with wide-scale deforestation, and unintentionally, as with the decay of the Aral Sea. The satellite data are far from sufficient for all that we need in order to understand the global system and forecast its changes, as we also need

  18. Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 2 (JMA/MRI-CPS2): atmosphere-land-ocean-sea ice coupled prediction system for operational seasonal forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takaya, Yuhei; Hirahara, Shoji; Yasuda, Tamaki; Matsueda, Satoko; Toyoda, Takahiro; Fujii, Yosuke; Sugimoto, Hiroyuki; Matsukawa, Chihiro; Ishikawa, Ichiro; Mori, Hirotoshi; Nagasawa, Ryoji; Kubo, Yutaro; Adachi, Noriyuki; Yamanaka, Goro; Kuragano, Tsurane; Shimpo, Akihiko; Maeda, Shuhei; Ose, Tomoaki

    2018-02-01

    This paper describes the Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 2 (JMA/MRI-CPS2), which was put into operation in June 2015 for the purpose of performing seasonal predictions. JMA/MRI-CPS2 has various upgrades from its predecessor, JMA/MRI-CPS1, including improved resolution and physics in its atmospheric and oceanic components, introduction of an interactive sea-ice model and realistic initialization of its land component. Verification of extensive re-forecasts covering a 30-year period (1981-2010) demonstrates that JMA/MRI-CPS2 possesses improved seasonal predictive skills for both atmospheric and oceanic interannual variability as well as key coupled variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For ENSO prediction, the new system better represents the forecast uncertainty and transition/duration of ENSO phases. Our analysis suggests that the enhanced predictive skills are attributable to incremental improvements resulting from all of the changes, as is apparent in the beneficial effects of sea-ice coupling and land initialization on 2-m temperature predictions. JMA/MRI-CPS2 is capable of reasonably representing the seasonal cycle and secular trends of sea ice. The sea-ice coupling remarkably enhances the predictive capability for the Arctic 2-m temperature, indicating the importance of this factor, particularly for seasonal predictions in the Arctic region.

  19. Icing Conditions Over Northern Eurasia in Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bulygina, O.; Arzhanova, N.; Groisman, P. Y.

    2013-12-01

    A general increase in atmospheric humidity is expected with global warming, projected with GCMs, reported with remote sensing and in situ observations (Trenberth et al. 2005; Dessler, and Davis 2010; IPCC 2007, Zhang et al. 2012.) In the Arctic this increase has been and will be especially prominent triggered by the dramatic retreat of the sea ice. In the warm season this retreat provides an abundant water vapor supply to the dry Arctic atmosphere. The contemporary sea ice changes are especially visible in the Eastern Hemisphere and after the two extremely anomalous low-ice years (2007 and 2012) it is right time to look for the impact of these changes in the high latitudinal hydrological cycle: first of all in the atmospheric humidity and precipitation changes. Usually, humidity (unless extremely high or low) does not critically affect the human activities and life style. However, in the high latitudes this characteristic has an additional facet: higher humidity causes higher ice condensation from the air (icing and hoar frost) on the infrastructure and transports in the absence of precipitation. The hoar frost and icing (in Russian: gololed) are measured at the Russian meteorological network and reports of icing of the wires are quantitative measurements. While hoar frost can be considered as a minor annoyance, icing may have important societal repercussions. In the Arctic icing occurs mostly during relatively warm months when atmosphere holds maximum amount of water vapor (and is projected to have more). Freezing rain and drizzle contribute to gololed formation and thus this variable (being above some thresholds) presents an important characteristic that can affect the infrastructure (communication lines elevated at the telegraph poles, antennas, etc.), became a Socially-Important climatic Variable (SIV). The former USSR observational program includes gololed among the documented weather phenomena and this allowed RIHMI to create Electronic Reference Book on

  20. Bioprecipitation: a feedback cycle linking earth history, ecosystem dynamics and land use through biological ice nucleators in the atmosphere.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, Cindy E; Conen, Franz; Alex Huffman, J; Phillips, Vaughan; Pöschl, Ulrich; Sands, David C

    2014-02-01

    Landscapes influence precipitation via the water vapor and energy fluxes they generate. Biologically active landscapes also generate aerosols containing microorganisms, some being capable of catalyzing ice formation and crystal growth in clouds at temperatures near 0 °C. The resulting precipitation is beneficial for the growth of plants and microorganisms. Mounting evidence from observations and numerical simulations support the plausibility of a bioprecipitation feedback cycle involving vegetated landscapes and the microorganisms they host. Furthermore, the evolutionary history of ice nucleation-active bacteria such as Pseudomonas syringae supports that they have been part of this process on geological time scales since the emergence of land plants. Elucidation of bioprecipitation feedbacks involving landscapes and their microflora could contribute to appraising the impact that modified landscapes have on regional weather and biodiversity, and to avoiding inadvertent, negative consequences of landscape management. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. Image-based change estimation for land cover and land use monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeremy Webb; C. Kenneth Brewer; Nicholas Daniels; Chris Maderia; Randy Hamilton; Mark Finco; Kevin A. Megown; Andrew J. Lister

    2012-01-01

    The Image-based Change Estimation (ICE) project resulted from the need to provide estimates and information for land cover and land use change over large areas. The procedure uses Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) plot locations interpreted using two different dates of imagery from the National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP). In order to determine a suitable...

  2. A global, 30-m resolution land-surface water body dataset for 2000

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, M.; Sexton, J. O.; Huang, C.; Song, D. X.; Song, X. P.; Channan, S.; Townshend, J. R.

    2014-12-01

    Inland surface water is essential to terrestrial ecosystems and human civilization. The distribution of surface water in space and its change over time are related to many agricultural, environmental and ecological issues, and are important factors that must be considered in human socioeconomic development. Accurate mapping of surface water is essential for both scientific research and policy-driven applications. Satellite-based remote sensing provides snapshots of Earth's surface and can be used as the main input for water mapping, especially in large areas. Global water areas have been mapped with coarse resolution remotely sensed data (e.g., the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)). However, most inland rivers and water bodies, as well as their changes, are too small to map at such coarse resolutions. Landsat TM (Thematic Mapper) and ETM+ (Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus) imagery has a 30m spatial resolution and provides decades of records (~40 years). Since 2008, the opening of the Landsat archive, coupled with relatively lower costs associated with computing and data storage, has made comprehensive study of the dynamic changes of surface water over large even global areas more feasible. Although Landsat images have been used for regional and even global water mapping, the method can hardly be automated due to the difficulties on distinguishing inland surface water with variant degrees of impurities and mixing of soil background with only Landsat data. The spectral similarities to other land cover types, e.g., shadow and glacier remnants, also cause misidentification. We have developed a probabilistic based automatic approach for mapping inland surface water bodies. Landsat surface reflectance in multiple bands, derived water indices, and data from other sources are integrated to maximize the ability of identifying water without human interference. The approach has been implemented with open-source libraries to facilitate processing large

  3. Simulation of the influence of historical land cover changes on the global climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Y. [Nanjing Univ. of Aeronautics and Astronautics (China). College of Civil Aviation; Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China). Key Lab. of Regional Climate-Environment for East Asia; Yan, X. [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China). Key Lab. of Regional Climate-Environment for East Asia; Beijing Normal Univ. (China). State Key Lab. of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology (ESPRE); Wang, Z. [British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge (United Kingdom)

    2013-09-01

    In order to estimate biogeophysical effects of historical land cover change on climate during last three centuries, a set of experiments with a climate system model of intermediate complexity (MPM-2) is performed. In response to historical deforestation, the model simulates a decrease in annual mean global temperature in the range of 0.07-0.14 C based on different grassland albedos. The effect of land cover changes is most pronounced in the middle northern latitudes with maximum cooling reaching approximately 0.6 C during northern summer. The cooling reaches 0.57 C during northern spring owing to the large effects of land surface albedo. These results suggest that land cover forcing is important for study on historical climate change and that more research is necessary in the assessment of land management options for climate change mitigation. (orig.)

  4. Global market integration increases likelihood that a future African Green Revolution could increase crop land use and CO2 emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hertel, Thomas W; Ramankutty, Navin; Baldos, Uris Lantz C

    2014-09-23

    There has been a resurgence of interest in the impacts of agricultural productivity on land use and the environment. At the center of this debate is the assertion that agricultural innovation is land sparing. However, numerous case studies and global empirical studies have found little evidence of higher yields being accompanied by reduced area. We find that these studies overlook two crucial factors: estimation of a true counterfactual scenario and a tendency to adopt a regional, rather than a global, perspective. This paper introduces a general framework for analyzing the impacts of regional and global innovation on long run crop output, prices, land rents, land use, and associated CO2 emissions. In so doing, it facilitates a reconciliation of the apparently conflicting views of the impacts of agricultural productivity growth on global land use and environmental quality. Our historical analysis demonstrates that the Green Revolution in Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East was unambiguously land and emissions sparing, compared with a counterfactual world without these innovations. In contrast, we find that the environmental impacts of a prospective African Green Revolution are potentially ambiguous. We trace these divergent outcomes to relative differences between the innovating region and the rest of the world in yields, emissions efficiencies, cropland supply response, and intensification potential. Globalization of agriculture raises the potential for adverse environmental consequences. However, if sustained for several decades, an African Green Revolution will eventually become land sparing.

  5. Global market integration increases likelihood that a future African Green Revolution could increase crop land use and CO2 emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hertel, Thomas W.; Ramankutty, Navin; Baldos, Uris Lantz C.

    2014-01-01

    There has been a resurgence of interest in the impacts of agricultural productivity on land use and the environment. At the center of this debate is the assertion that agricultural innovation is land sparing. However, numerous case studies and global empirical studies have found little evidence of higher yields being accompanied by reduced area. We find that these studies overlook two crucial factors: estimation of a true counterfactual scenario and a tendency to adopt a regional, rather than a global, perspective. This paper introduces a general framework for analyzing the impacts of regional and global innovation on long run crop output, prices, land rents, land use, and associated CO2 emissions. In so doing, it facilitates a reconciliation of the apparently conflicting views of the impacts of agricultural productivity growth on global land use and environmental quality. Our historical analysis demonstrates that the Green Revolution in Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East was unambiguously land and emissions sparing, compared with a counterfactual world without these innovations. In contrast, we find that the environmental impacts of a prospective African Green Revolution are potentially ambiguous. We trace these divergent outcomes to relative differences between the innovating region and the rest of the world in yields, emissions efficiencies, cropland supply response, and intensification potential. Globalization of agriculture raises the potential for adverse environmental consequences. However, if sustained for several decades, an African Green Revolution will eventually become land sparing. PMID:25201962

  6. Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C global warming could be dangerous

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Hansen

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available We use numerical climate simulations, paleoclimate data, and modern observations to study the effect of growing ice melt from Antarctica and Greenland. Meltwater tends to stabilize the ocean column, inducing amplifying feedbacks that increase subsurface ocean warming and ice shelf melting. Cold meltwater and induced dynamical effects cause ocean surface cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic, thus increasing Earth's energy imbalance and heat flux into most of the global ocean's surface. Southern Ocean surface cooling, while lower latitudes are warming, increases precipitation on the Southern Ocean, increasing ocean stratification, slowing deepwater formation, and increasing ice sheet mass loss. These feedbacks make ice sheets in contact with the ocean vulnerable to accelerating disintegration. We hypothesize that ice mass loss from the most vulnerable ice, sufficient to raise sea level several meters, is better approximated as exponential than by a more linear response. Doubling times of 10, 20 or 40 years yield multi-meter sea level rise in about 50, 100 or 200 years. Recent ice melt doubling times are near the lower end of the 10–40-year range, but the record is too short to confirm the nature of the response. The feedbacks, including subsurface ocean warming, help explain paleoclimate data and point to a dominant Southern Ocean role in controlling atmospheric CO2, which in turn exercised tight control on global temperature and sea level. The millennial (500–2000-year timescale of deep-ocean ventilation affects the timescale for natural CO2 change and thus the timescale for paleo-global climate, ice sheet, and sea level changes, but this paleo-millennial timescale should not be misinterpreted as the timescale for ice sheet response to a rapid, large, human-made climate forcing. These climate feedbacks aid interpretation of events late in the prior interglacial, when sea level rose to +6–9 m with evidence of extreme storms

  7. Marginal Ice Zone Processes Observed from Unmanned Aerial Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zappa, C. J.

    2015-12-01

    Recent years have seen extreme changes in the Arctic. Marginal ice zones (MIZ), or areas where the "ice-albedo feedback" driven by solar warming is highest and ice melt is extensive, may provide insights into the extent of these changes. Furthermore, MIZ play a central role in setting the air-sea CO2 balance making them a critical component of the global carbon cycle. Incomplete understanding of how the sea-ice modulates gas fluxes renders it difficult to estimate the carbon budget in MIZ. Here, we investigate the turbulent mechanisms driving mixing and gas exchange in leads, polynyas and in the presence of ice floes using both field and laboratory measurements. Measurements from unmanned aerial systems (UAS) in the marginal ice zone were made during 2 experiments: 1) North of Oliktok Point AK in the Beaufort Sea were made during the Marginal Ice Zone Ocean and Ice Observations and Processes EXperiment (MIZOPEX) in July-August 2013 and 2) Fram Strait and Greenland Sea northwest of Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard, Norway during the Air-Sea-Ice Physics and Biogeochemistry Experiment (ASIPBEX) April - May 2015. We developed a number of new payloads that include: i) hyperspectral imaging spectrometers to measure VNIR (400-1000 nm) and NIR (900-1700 nm) spectral radiance; ii) net longwave and net shortwave radiation for ice-ocean albedo studies; iii) air-sea-ice turbulent fluxes as well as wave height, ice freeboard, and surface roughness with a LIDAR; and iv) drone-deployed micro-drifters (DDµD) deployed from the UAS that telemeter temperature, pressure, and RH as it descends through the atmosphere and temperature and salinity of the upper meter of the ocean once it lands on the ocean's surface. Visible and IR imagery of melting ice floes clearly defines the scale of the ice floes. The IR imagery show distinct cooling of the skin sea surface temperature (SST) as well as an intricate circulation and mixing pattern that depends on the surface current, wind speed, and near

  8. Arctic Sea Ice in a 1.5°C Warmer World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niederdrenk, Anne Laura; Notz, Dirk

    2018-02-01

    We examine the seasonal cycle of Arctic sea ice in scenarios with limited future global warming. To do so, we analyze two sets of observational records that cover the observational uncertainty of Arctic sea ice loss per degree of global warming. The observations are combined with 100 simulations of historical and future climate evolution from the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model Grand Ensemble. Based on the high-sensitivity observations, we find that Arctic September sea ice is lost with low probability (P≈ 10%) for global warming of +1.5°C above preindustrial levels and with very high probability (P> 99%) for global warming of +2°C above preindustrial levels. For the low-sensitivity observations, September sea ice is extremely unlikely to disappear for +1.5°C warming (P≪ 1%) and has low likelihood (P≈ 10%) to disappear even for +2°C global warming. For March, both observational records suggest a loss of 15% to 20% of Arctic sea ice area for 1.5°C to 2°C global warming.

  9. Greenland Ice sheet mass balance from satellite and airborne altimetry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khan, Shfaqat Abbas; Bevis, M. G.; Wahr, J. M.

    Ice loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is dominated by loss in the marginal areas. Dynamic induced ice loss and its associated ice surface lowering is often largest close to the glacier calving front and may vary from rates of tens of meters per years to a few meters per year over relatively...... short distances. Hence, high spatial resolution data are required to accurately estimate volume changes. Here, we estimate ice volume change rate of the Greenland ice sheet using data from Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) laser altimeter during 2003-2009 and CryoSat-2 data during 2010...

  10. Energy-Water-Land Nexus: The relative contributions of climate and human systems on global water scarcity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hejazi, M. I.; Chen, M.; Turner, S. W. D.; Graham, N. T.; Vernon, C. R.; Li, X.; Kim, S. H.; Link, R. P.

    2017-12-01

    There is a growing consensus that energy, water, and land systems are interconnected and should be analyzed as such. New tools are required to represent the interactions between population, economic growth, energy, land, and water resources in a dynamically evolving system. Here we use the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to investigate the relative contributions of climate and human systems on water scarcity regionally and globally under a wide range of scenarios. The model accounts for a variety of human activities, including changing demands for water for agriculture, power generation, industry, and public supply. We find that these activities exert a larger influence on water scarcity than climate in 93% of river basins globally. This work highlights the importance of accounting for human activities in hydrologic modeling applications and how they may change under different pathways of how land use and agricultural systems, energy systems, and economies may evolve in the future.

  11. Ikaite crystal distribution in Arctic winter sea ice and implications for CO2 system dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rysgaard, S.; Søgaard, D. H.; Cooper, M.; Pućko, M.; Lennert, K.; Papakyriakou, T. N.; Wang, F.; Geilfus, N. X.; Glud, R. N.; Ehn, J.; McGinnnis, D. F.; Attard, K.; Sievers, J.; Deming, J. W.; Barber, D.

    2012-12-01

    The precipitation of ikaite (CaCO3·6H2O) in polar sea ice is critical to the efficiency of the sea ice-driven carbon pump and potentially important to the global carbon cycle, yet the spatial and temporal occurrence of ikaite within the ice is poorly known. We report unique observations of ikaite in unmelted ice and vertical profiles of ikaite abundance and concentration in sea ice for the crucial season of winter. Ice was examined from two locations: a 1 m thick land-fast ice site and a 0.3 m thick polynya site, both in the Young Sound area (74° N, 20° W) of NE Greenland. Ikaite crystals, ranging in size from a few µm to 700 µm were observed to concentrate in the interstices between the ice platelets in both granular and columnar sea ice. In vertical sea-ice profiles from both locations, ikaite concentration determined from image analysis, decreased with depth from surfaceice values of 700-900 µmol kg-1 ice (~ 25 × 106 crystals kg-1) to bottom-layer values of 100-200 µmol kg-1 ice (1-7 × 106 kg-1), all of which are much higher (4-10 times) than those reported in the few previous studies. Direct measurements of total alkalinity (TA) in surface layers fell within the same range as ikaite concentration whereas TA concentrations in bottom layers were twice as high. This depth-related discrepancy suggests interior ice processes where ikaite crystals form in surface sea ice layers and partly dissolved in bottom layers. From these findings and model calculations we relate sea ice formation and melt to observed pCO2 conditions in polar surface waters, and hence, the air-sea CO2 flux.

  12. Caisson structures in the Beaufort Sea 1982-1990 : characteristics, instrumentation and ice loads

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Timco, G.W.; Johnston, M.E. [National Research Council of Canada, Ottawa, ON (Canada). Canadian Hydraulics Centre

    2002-11-01

    This report presents a comprehensive overview of the instrumentation, characteristics and measured ice loads on the caisson structures used for exploratory drilling in the Canadian Beaufort Sea during the 1970s and 1980s. The focus was placed on the Tarsiut Caissons, the Single Steel Drilling Caisson (SSDC), the Caisson Retained Island (CRI), and the Molikpaq. Details on the ice-load measuring instrumentation were provided for each of the drill sites featuring an ice-load measurement program. The results of global loads on the structures were presented as a Line Load (global load per width of the structure) and the Global Pressure (line load per ice thickness). The authors showed that global loads were a function of the ice macrostructure (level first-year sea ice, multi-year ice, first-year ridges, hummock fields, isolated floes). A general increase in the Line Load with increasing ice thickness was revealed through analysis. There was considerable scatter in the data, and the authors explained it by examining the failure mode of the ice during the interaction process. 36 refs., 4 tabs., 57 figs.

  13. Spatiotemporal Patterns of Ice Mass Variations and the Local Climatic Factors in the Riparian Zone of Central Valley, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inamdar, P.; Ambinakudige, S.

    2016-12-01

    Californian icefields are natural basins of fresh water. They provide irrigation water to the farms in the central valley. We analyzed the ice mass loss rates, air temperature and land surface temperature (LST) in Sacramento and San Joaquin basins in California. The digital elevation models from Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) were used to calculate ice mass loss rate between the years 2002 and 2015. Additionally, Landsat TIR data were used to extract the land surface temperature. Data from local weather stations were analyzed to understand the spatiotemporal trends in air temperature. The results showed an overall mass recession of -0.8 ± 0.7 m w.e.a-1. We also noticed an about 60% loss in areal extent of the glaciers in the study basins between 2000 and 2015. Local climatic factors, along with the global climate patterns might have influenced the negative trends in the ice mass loss. Overall, there was an increase in the air temperature by 0.07± 0.02 °C in the central valley between 2000 and 2015. Furthermore, LST increased by 0.34 ± 0.4 °C and 0.55± 0.1 °C in the Sacramento and San Joaquin basins. Our preliminary results show the decrease in area and mass of ice mass in the basins, and changing agricultural practices in the valley.

  14. Deep Space Detection of Oriented Ice Crystals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshak, A.; Varnai, T.; Kostinski, A. B.

    2017-12-01

    The deep space climate observatory (DSCOVR) spacecraft resides at the first Lagrangian point about one million miles from Earth. A polychromatic imaging camera onboard delivers nearly hourly observations of the entire sun-lit face of the Earth. Many images contain unexpected bright flashes of light over both ocean and land. We constructed a yearlong time series of flash latitudes, scattering angles and oxygen absorption to demonstrate conclusively that the flashes over land are specular reflections off tiny ice crystals floating in the air nearly horizontally. Such deep space detection of tropospheric ice can be used to constrain the likelihood of oriented crystals and their contribution to Earth albedo.

  15. Ikaite crystal distribution in winter sea ice and implications for CO2 system dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rysgaard, S.; Søgaard, D. H.; Cooper, M.; Pućko, M.; Lennert, K.; Papakyriakou, T. N.; Wang, F.; Geilfus, N. X.; Glud, R. N.; Ehn, J.; McGinnis, D. F.; Attard, K.; Sievers, J.; Deming, J. W.; Barber, D.

    2013-04-01

    The precipitation of ikaite (CaCO3 ⋅ 6H2O) in polar sea ice is critical to the efficiency of the sea ice-driven carbon pump and potentially important to the global carbon cycle, yet the spatial and temporal occurrence of ikaite within the ice is poorly known. We report unique observations of ikaite in unmelted ice and vertical profiles of ikaite abundance and concentration in sea ice for the crucial season of winter. Ice was examined from two locations: a 1 m thick land-fast ice site and a 0.3 m thick polynya site, both in the Young Sound area (74° N, 20° W) of NE Greenland. Ikaite crystals, ranging in size from a few μm to 700 μm, were observed to concentrate in the interstices between the ice platelets in both granular and columnar sea ice. In vertical sea ice profiles from both locations, ikaite concentration determined from image analysis, decreased with depth from surface-ice values of 700-900 μmol kg-1 ice (~25 × 106 crystals kg-1) to values of 100-200 μmol kg-1 ice (1-7 × 106 crystals kg-1) near the sea ice-water interface, all of which are much higher (4-10 times) than those reported in the few previous studies. Direct measurements of total alkalinity (TA) in surface layers fell within the same range as ikaite concentration, whereas TA concentrations in the lower half of the sea ice were twice as high. This depth-related discrepancy suggests interior ice processes where ikaite crystals form in surface sea ice layers and partly dissolve in layers below. Melting of sea ice and dissolution of observed concentrations of ikaite would result in meltwater with a pCO2 of <15 μatm. This value is far below atmospheric values of 390 μatm and surface water concentrations of 315 μatm. Hence, the meltwater increases the potential for seawater uptake of CO2.

  16. High-resolution ice thickness and bed topography of a land-terminating section of the Greenland Ice Sheet

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindbäck, K.; Pettersson, R.; Doyle, S. H.

    2014-01-01

    We present ice thickness and bed topography maps with high spatial resolution (250 to 500 m) of a and-terminating section of the Greenland Ice Sheet derived from combined ground-based and airborne radar surveys. The data have a total area of ~12000 km2 and cover the whole ablation area of the out...

  17. Accounting for radiative forcing from albedo change in future global land-use scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, Andrew D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Calvin, Katherine V. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Collins, William D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Edmonds, James A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-08-01

    We demonstrate the effectiveness of a new method for quantifying radiative forcing from land use and land cover change (LULCC) within an integrated assessment model, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). The method relies on geographically differentiated estimates of radiative forcing from albedo change associated with major land cover transitions derived from the Community Earth System Model. We find that conversion of 1 km² of woody vegetation (forest and shrublands) to non-woody vegetation (crops and grassland) yields between 0 and –0.71 nW/m² of globally averaged radiative forcing determined by the vegetation characteristics, snow dynamics, and atmospheric radiation environment characteristic within each of 151 regions we consider globally. Across a set of scenarios designed to span a range of potential future LULCC, we find LULCC forcing ranging from –0.06 to –0.29 W/m² by 2070 depending on assumptions regarding future crop yield growth and whether climate policy favors afforestation or bioenergy crops. Inclusion of this previously uncounted forcing in the policy targets driving future climate mitigation efforts leads to changes in fossil fuel emissions on the order of 1.5 PgC/yr by 2070 for a climate forcing limit of 4.5 Wm–2, corresponding to a 12–67 % change in fossil fuel emissions depending on the scenario. Scenarios with significant afforestation must compensate for albedo-induced warming through additional emissions reductions, and scenarios with significant deforestation need not mitigate as aggressively due to albedo-induced cooling. In all scenarios considered, inclusion of albedo forcing in policy targets increases forest and shrub cover globally.

  18. Combined ice core and climate-model evidence for the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet during Marine Isotope Stage 5e.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steig, Eric J.; Huybers, Kathleen; Singh, Hansi A.; Steiger, Nathan J.; Frierson, Dargan M. W.; Popp, Trevor; White, James W. C.

    2015-04-01

    It has been speculated that collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet explains the very high eustatic sea level rise during the last interglacial period, marine isotope stage (MIS) 5e, but the evidence remains equivocal. Changes in atmospheric circulation resulting from a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) would have significant regional impacts that should be detectable in ice core records. We conducted simulations using general circulation models (GCMs) at varying levels of complexity: a gray-radiation aquaplanet moist GCM (GRaM), the slab ocean version of GFDL-AM2 (also as an aquaplanet), and the fully-coupled version of NCAR's CESM with realistic topography. In all the experiments, decreased elevation from the removal of the WAIS leads to greater cyclonic circulation over the West Antarctic region. This creates increased advection of relatively warm marine air from the Amundsen-Bellingshausen Seas towards the South Pole, and increased cold-air advection from the East Antarctic plateau towards the Ross Sea and coastal Marie Byrd Land. The result is anomalous warming in some areas of the East Antarctic interior, and significant cooling in Marie Byrd Land. Comparison of ice core records shows good agreement with the model predictions. In particular, isotope-paleotemperature records from ice cores in East Antarctica warmed more between the previous glacial period (MIS 6) and MIS 5e than coastal Marie Byrd Land. These results add substantial support to other evidence for WAIS collapse during the last interglacial period.

  19. Ice-free Arctic projections under the Paris Agreement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sigmond, Michael; Fyfe, John C.; Swart, Neil C.

    2018-05-01

    Under the Paris Agreement, emissions scenarios are pursued that would stabilize the global mean temperature at 1.5-2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels, but current emission reduction policies are expected to limit warming by 2100 to approximately 3.0 °C. Whether such emissions scenarios would prevent a summer sea-ice-free Arctic is unknown. Here we employ stabilized warming simulations with an Earth System Model to obtain sea-ice projections under stabilized global warming, and correct biases in mean sea-ice coverage by constraining with observations. Although there is some sensitivity to details in the constraining method, the observationally constrained projections suggest that the benefits of going from 2.0 °C to 1.5 °C stabilized warming are substantial; an eightfold decrease in the frequency of ice-free conditions is expected, from once in every five to once in every forty years. Under 3.0 °C global mean warming, however, permanent summer ice-free conditions are likely, which emphasizes the need for nations to increase their commitments to the Paris Agreement.

  20. Terrestrial Sediments of the Earth: Development of a Global Unconsolidated Sediments Map Database (GUM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Börker, J.; Hartmann, J.; Amann, T.; Romero-Mujalli, G.

    2018-04-01

    Mapped unconsolidated sediments cover half of the global land surface. They are of considerable importance for many Earth surface processes like weathering, hydrological fluxes or biogeochemical cycles. Ignoring their characteristics or spatial extent may lead to misinterpretations in Earth System studies. Therefore, a new Global Unconsolidated Sediments Map database (GUM) was compiled, using regional maps specifically representing unconsolidated and quaternary sediments. The new GUM database provides insights into the regional distribution of unconsolidated sediments and their properties. The GUM comprises 911,551 polygons and describes not only sediment types and subtypes, but also parameters like grain size, mineralogy, age and thickness where available. Previous global lithological maps or databases lacked detail for reported unconsolidated sediment areas or missed large areas, and reported a global coverage of 25 to 30%, considering the ice-free land area. Here, alluvial sediments cover about 23% of the mapped total ice-free area, followed by aeolian sediments (˜21%), glacial sediments (˜20%), and colluvial sediments (˜16%). A specific focus during the creation of the database was on the distribution of loess deposits, since loess is highly reactive and relevant to understand geochemical cycles related to dust deposition and weathering processes. An additional layer compiling pyroclastic sediment is added, which merges consolidated and unconsolidated pyroclastic sediments. The compilation shows latitudinal abundances of sediment types related to climate of the past. The GUM database is available at the PANGAEA database (https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.884822).

  1. On the influence of total solar irradiance on global land temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varonov, Albert; Shopov, Yavor

    2014-01-01

    Using statistical analysis, correlation between the variations of the total solar irradiance and of the annual-mean land temperatures was found. An unknown time lag between both data sets was expected to be present due to the complexity of the Earth’s climate system leading to a delayed response to changes in influencing factors. We found the best correlation with coefficient over 90% for a 14-year shift of the annual mean land temperature record ahead with data until 1970, while the same comparison with data until 2006 yields 61% correlation. These results show substantially higher influence of total solar irradiance on global land temperatures until 1970. The decline of this influence during the last 40 years could be attributed to the increasing concentration of anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere. Key words: total solar irradiance, solar variations, solar forcing, climate change

  2. Influence of ice thickness and surface properties on light transmission through Arctic sea ice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katlein, Christian; Arndt, Stefanie; Nicolaus, Marcel; Perovich, Donald K; Jakuba, Michael V; Suman, Stefano; Elliott, Stephen; Whitcomb, Louis L; McFarland, Christopher J; Gerdes, Rüdiger; Boetius, Antje; German, Christopher R

    2015-09-01

    The observed changes in physical properties of sea ice such as decreased thickness and increased melt pond cover severely impact the energy budget of Arctic sea ice. Increased light transmission leads to increased deposition of solar energy in the upper ocean and thus plays a crucial role for amount and timing of sea-ice-melt and under-ice primary production. Recent developments in underwater technology provide new opportunities to study light transmission below the largely inaccessible underside of sea ice. We measured spectral under-ice radiance and irradiance using the new Nereid Under-Ice (NUI) underwater robotic vehicle, during a cruise of the R/V Polarstern to 83°N 6°W in the Arctic Ocean in July 2014. NUI is a next generation hybrid remotely operated vehicle (H-ROV) designed for both remotely piloted and autonomous surveys underneath land-fast and moving sea ice. Here we present results from one of the first comprehensive scientific dives of NUI employing its interdisciplinary sensor suite. We combine under-ice optical measurements with three dimensional under-ice topography (multibeam sonar) and aerial images of the surface conditions. We investigate the influence of spatially varying ice-thickness and surface properties on the spatial variability of light transmittance during summer. Our results show that surface properties such as melt ponds dominate the spatial distribution of the under-ice light field on small scales (sea ice-thickness is the most important predictor for light transmission on larger scales. In addition, we propose the use of an algorithm to obtain histograms of light transmission from distributions of sea ice thickness and surface albedo.

  3. Estimation of global soil respiration by accounting for land-use changes derived from remote sensing data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adachi, Minaco; Ito, Akihiko; Yonemura, Seiichiro; Takeuchi, Wataru

    2017-09-15

    Soil respiration is one of the largest carbon fluxes from terrestrial ecosystems. Estimating global soil respiration is difficult because of its high spatiotemporal variability and sensitivity to land-use change. Satellite monitoring provides useful data for estimating the global carbon budget, but few studies have estimated global soil respiration using satellite data. We provide preliminary insights into the estimation of global soil respiration in 2001 and 2009 using empirically derived soil temperature equations for 17 ecosystems obtained by field studies, as well as MODIS climate data and land-use maps at a 4-km resolution. The daytime surface temperature from winter to early summer based on the MODIS data tended to be higher than the field-observed soil temperatures in subarctic and temperate ecosystems. The estimated global soil respiration was 94.8 and 93.8 Pg C yr -1 in 2001 and 2009, respectively. However, the MODIS land-use maps had insufficient spatial resolution to evaluate the effect of land-use change on soil respiration. The spatial variation of soil respiration (Q 10 ) values was higher but its spatial variation was lower in high-latitude areas than in other areas. However, Q 10 in tropical areas was more variable and was not accurately estimated (the values were >7.5 or soil respiration in tropical ecosystems. To solve these problems, it will be necessary to validate our results using a combination of remote sensing data at higher spatial resolution and field observations for many different ecosystems, and it will be necessary to account for the effects of more soil factors in the predictive equations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Mapping the global depth to bedrock for land surface modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shangguan, W.; Hengl, T.; Yuan, H.; Dai, Y. J.; Zhang, S.

    2017-12-01

    Depth to bedrock serves as the lower boundary of land surface models, which controls hydrologic and biogeochemical processes. This paper presents a framework for global estimation of Depth to bedrock (DTB). Observations were extracted from a global compilation of soil profile data (ca. 130,000 locations) and borehole data (ca. 1.6 million locations). Additional pseudo-observations generated by expert knowledge were added to fill in large sampling gaps. The model training points were then overlaid on a stack of 155 covariates including DEM-based hydrological and morphological derivatives, lithologic units, MODIS surfacee reflectance bands and vegetation indices derived from the MODIS land products. Global spatial prediction models were developed using random forests and Gradient Boosting Tree algorithms. The final predictions were generated at the spatial resolution of 250m as an ensemble prediction of the two independently fitted models. The 10-fold cross-validation shows that the models explain 59% for absolute DTB and 34% for censored DTB (depths deep than 200 cm are predicted as 200 cm). The model for occurrence of R horizon (bedrock) within 200 cm does a good job. Visual comparisons of predictions in the study areas where more detailed maps of depth to bedrock exist show that there is a general match with spatial patterns from similar local studies. Limitation of the data set and extrapolation in data spare areas should not be ignored in applications. To improve accuracy of spatial prediction, more borehole drilling logs will need to be added to supplement the existing training points in under-represented areas.

  5. Estimating Daily Global Evapotranspiration Using Penman–Monteith Equation and Remotely Sensed Land Surface Temperature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roozbeh Raoufi

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Daily evapotranspiration (ET is modeled globally for the period 2000–2013 based on the Penman–Monteith equation with radiation and vapor pressures derived using remotely sensed Land Surface Temperature (LST from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS on the Aqua and Terra satellites. The ET for a given land area is based on four surface conditions: wet/dry and vegetated/non-vegetated. For each, the ET resistance terms are based on land cover, leaf area index (LAI and literature values. The vegetated/non-vegetated fractions of the land surface are estimated using land cover, LAI, a simplified version of the Beer–Lambert law for describing light transition through vegetation and newly derived light extension coefficients for each MODIS land cover type. The wet/dry fractions of the land surface are nonlinear functions of LST derived humidity calibrated using in-situ ET measurements. Results are compared to in-situ measurements (average of the root mean squared errors and mean absolute errors for 39 sites are 0.81 mm day−1 and 0.59 mm day−1, respectively and the MODIS ET product, MOD16, (mean bias during 2001–2013 is −0.2 mm day−1. Although the mean global difference between MOD16 and ET estimates is only 0.2 mm day−1, local temperature derived vapor pressures are the likely contributor to differences, especially in energy and water limited regions. The intended application for the presented model is simulating ET based on long-term climate forecasts (e.g., using only minimum, maximum and mean daily or monthly temperatures.

  6. Impacts of the north and tropical Atlantic Ocean on the Antarctic Peninsula and sea ice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xichen; Holland, David M; Gerber, Edwin P; Yoo, Changhyun

    2014-01-23

    In recent decades, Antarctica has experienced pronounced climate changes. The Antarctic Peninsula exhibited the strongest warming of any region on the planet, causing rapid changes in land ice. Additionally, in contrast to the sea-ice decline over the Arctic, Antarctic sea ice has not declined, but has instead undergone a perplexing redistribution. Antarctic climate is influenced by, among other factors, changes in radiative forcing and remote Pacific climate variability, but none explains the observed Antarctic Peninsula warming or the sea-ice redistribution in austral winter. However, in the north and tropical Atlantic Ocean, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (a leading mode of sea surface temperature variability) has been overlooked in this context. Here we show that sea surface warming related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation reduces the surface pressure in the Amundsen Sea and contributes to the observed dipole-like sea-ice redistribution between the Ross and Amundsen-Bellingshausen-Weddell seas and to the Antarctic Peninsula warming. Support for these findings comes from analysis of observational and reanalysis data, and independently from both comprehensive and idealized atmospheric model simulations. We suggest that the north and tropical Atlantic is important for projections of future climate change in Antarctica, and has the potential to affect the global thermohaline circulation and sea-level change.

  7. Generation and Evaluation of a Global Land Surface Phenology Product from Suomi-NPP VIIRS Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, X.; Liu, L.; Yan, D.; Moon, M.; Liu, Y.; Henebry, G. M.; Friedl, M. A.; Schaaf, C.

    2017-12-01

    Land surface phenology (LSP) datasets have been produced from a variety of coarse spatial resolution satellite observations at both regional and global scales and spanning different time periods since 1982. However, the LSP product generated from NASA's MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data at a spatial resolution of 500m, which is termed Land Cover Dynamics (MCD12Q2), is the only global product operationally produced and freely accessible at annual time steps from 2001. Because MODIS instrument is aging and will be replaced by the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), this research focuses on the generation and evaluation of a global LSP product from Suomi-NPP VIIRS time series observations that provide continuity with the MCD12Q2 product. Specifically, we generate 500m VIIRS global LSP data using daily VIIRS Nadir BRDF (bidirectional reflectance distribution function)-Adjusted reflectances (NBAR) in combination with land surface temperature, snow cover, and land cover type as inputs. The product provides twelve phenological metrics (seven phenological dates and five phenological greenness magnitudes), along with six quality metrics characterizing the confidence and quality associated with phenology retrievals at each pixel. In this paper, we describe the input data and algorithms used to produce this new product, and investigate the impact of VIIRS data time series quality on phenology detections across various climate regimes and ecosystems. As part of our analysis, the VIIRS LSP is evaluated using PhenoCam imagery in North America and Asia, and using higher spatial resolution satellite observations from Landsat 8 over an agricultural area in the central USA. We also explore the impact of high frequency cloud cover on the VIIRS LSP product by comparing with phenology detected from the Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) onboard Himawari-8. AHI is a new geostationary sensor that observes land surface every 10 minutes, which increases

  8. Propagation of Uncertainties in Sea Ice Thickness Calculations From Basin-Scale Operational Observations: A Report Prepared for the International Ice Charting Working Group and the National/Naval Ice Center

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Geiger, Cathleen A

    2006-01-01

    Sea ice serves as a natural flux monitor of the global heat balance. This capability is attributed to the unique location of sea ice at the interface of the world's two largest circulation systems the air and ocean...

  9. Transmissibility of the Ice Bucket Challenge among globally influential celebrities: retrospective cohort study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Brandford H Y; Leung, Gabriel M; Lau, Eric H Y; Pang, Herbert

    2014-01-01

    Objectives To estimate the transmissibility of the Ice Bucket Challenge among globally influential celebrities and to identify associated risk factors. Design Retrospective cohort study. Setting Social media (YouTube, Facebook, Twitter, Instagram). Participants David Beckham, Cristiano Ronaldo, Benedict Cumberbatch, Stephen Hawking, Mark Zuckerberg, Oprah Winfrey, Homer Simpson, and Kermit the Frog were defined as index cases. We included contacts up to the fifth generation seeded from each index case and enrolled a total of 99 participants into the cohort. Main outcome measures Basic reproduction number R0, serial interval of accepting the challenge, and odds ratios of associated risk factors based on fully observed nomination chains; R0 is a measure of transmissibility and is defined as the number of secondary cases generated by a single index in a fully susceptible population. Serial interval is the duration between onset of a primary case and onset of its secondary cases. Results Based on the empirical data and assuming a branching process we estimated a mean R0 of 1.43 (95% confidence interval 1.23 to 1.65) and a mean serial interval for accepting the challenge of 2.1 days (median 1 day). Higher log (base 10) net worth of the participants was positively associated with transmission (odds ratio 1.63, 95% confidence interval 1.06 to 2.50), adjusting for age and sex. Conclusions The Ice Bucket Challenge was moderately transmissible among a group of globally influential celebrities, in the range of the pandemic A/H1N1 2009 influenza. The challenge was more likely to be spread by richer celebrities, perhaps in part reflecting greater social influence. PMID:25514905

  10. Transmissibility of the Ice Bucket Challenge among globally influential celebrities: retrospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ni, Michael Y; Chan, Brandford H Y; Leung, Gabriel M; Lau, Eric H Y; Pang, Herbert

    2014-12-16

    To estimate the transmissibility of the Ice Bucket Challenge among globally influential celebrities and to identify associated risk factors. Retrospective cohort study. Social media (YouTube, Facebook, Twitter, Instagram). David Beckham, Cristiano Ronaldo, Benedict Cumberbatch, Stephen Hawking, Mark Zuckerberg, Oprah Winfrey, Homer Simpson, and Kermit the Frog were defined as index cases. We included contacts up to the fifth generation seeded from each index case and enrolled a total of 99 participants into the cohort. Basic reproduction number R0, serial interval of accepting the challenge, and odds ratios of associated risk factors based on fully observed nomination chains; R0 is a measure of transmissibility and is defined as the number of secondary cases generated by a single index in a fully susceptible population. Serial interval is the duration between onset of a primary case and onset of its secondary cases. Based on the empirical data and assuming a branching process we estimated a mean R0 of 1.43 (95% confidence interval 1.23 to 1.65) and a mean serial interval for accepting the challenge of 2.1 days (median 1 day). Higher log (base 10) net worth of the participants was positively associated with transmission (odds ratio 1.63, 95% confidence interval 1.06 to 2.50), adjusting for age and sex. The Ice Bucket Challenge was moderately transmissible among a group of globally influential celebrities, in the range of the pandemic A/H1N1 2009 influenza. The challenge was more likely to be spread by richer celebrities, perhaps in part reflecting greater social influence. © Ni et al 2014.

  11. Impacts of Land Cover Changes on Climate over China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, L.; Frauenfeld, O. W.

    2014-12-01

    Land cover changes can influence regional climate through modifying the surface energy balance and water fluxes, and can also affect climate at large scales via changes in atmospheric general circulation. With rapid population growth and economic development, China has experienced significant land cover changes, such as deforestation, grassland degradation, and farmland expansion. In this study, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) is used to investigate the climate impacts of anthropogenic land cover changes over China. To isolate the climatic effects of land cover change, we focus on the CAM and CLM models, with prescribed climatological sea surface temperature and sea ice cover. Two experiments were performed, one with current vegetation and the other with potential vegetation. Current vegetation conditions were derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite observations, and potential vegetation over China was obtained from Ramankutty and Foley's global potential vegetation dataset. Impacts of land cover changes on surface air temperature and precipitation are assessed based on the difference of the two experiments. Results suggest that land cover changes have a cold-season cooling effect in a large region of China, but a warming effect in summer. These temperature changes can be reconciled with albedo forcing and evapotranspiration. Moreover, impacts on atmospheric circulation and the Asian Monsoon is also discussed.

  12. Global land use patterns and the production of bioenergy to 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smeets, E.; Faaij, A.; Lewandowski, I.

    2004-05-01

    The results of a bottom-up analysis of the theoretical global bioenergy production potential are presented and discussed, with specific attention for the impact of underlying factors, existing studies on agriculture and forestry and gaps in the knowledge base that explain ranges in estimates. The impact of various factors is analysed by means of scenario analysis. Results indicate that the key factor for bioenergy production on surplus agricultural land is the type of agricultural management system. Theoretically, 70% of the present agricultural land use can be made available for bioenergy production, without further deforestation or endangering the future supply of food. The bioenergy potential from surplus agricultural land is estimated at 215 EJy -1 to 1471 EJy -1 in 2050. The bulk of this potential comes from the developing regions South America and the Carribean (47-221 EJy -1 ) and sub-Saharan Africa (31-317 EJy -1 ) and the transition economies of the CIS and Baltic States (45-199 EJy -1 )

  13. Global isoprene and monoterpene emissions under changing climate, vegetation, CO2 and land use

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hantson, Stijn; Knorr, Wolfgang; Schurgers, Guy

    2017-01-01

    Plants emit large quantities of isoprene and monoterpenes, the main components of global biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions. BVOCs have an important impact on the atmospheric composition of methane, and of short-lived radiative forcing agents (e.g. ozone, aerosols etc.). It is th......Plants emit large quantities of isoprene and monoterpenes, the main components of global biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions. BVOCs have an important impact on the atmospheric composition of methane, and of short-lived radiative forcing agents (e.g. ozone, aerosols etc.......). It is therefore necessary to know how isoprene and monoterpene emissions have changed over the past and how future changes in climate, land-use and other factors will impact them. Here we present emission estimates of isoprene and monoterpenes over the period 1901–2 100 based on the dynamic global vegetation...... model LPJ-GUESS, including the effects of all known important drivers. We find that both isoprene and monoterpene emissions at the beginning of the 20th century were higher than at present. While anthropogenic land-use change largely drives the global decreasing trend for isoprene over the 20th century...

  14. Evaluation of Ice sheet evolution and coastline changes from 1960s in Amery Ice Shelf using multi-source remote sensing images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiao, G.; Ye, W.; Scaioni, M.; Liu, S.; Feng, T.; Liu, Y.; Tong, X.; Li, R.

    2013-12-01

    Global change is one of the major challenges that all the nations are commonly facing, and the Antarctica ice sheet changes have been playing a critical role in the global change research field during the past years. Long time-series of ice sheet observations in Antarctica would contribute to the quantitative evaluation and precise prediction of the effects on global change induced by the ice sheet, of which the remote sensing technology would make critical contributions. As the biggest ice shelf and one of the dominant drainage systems in East Antarctic, the Amery Ice Shelf has been making significant contributions to the mass balance of the Antarctic. Study of Amery Ice shelf changes would advance the understanding of Antarctic ice shelf evolution as well as the overall mass balance. At the same time, as one of the important indicators of Antarctica ice sheet characteristics, coastlines that can be detected from remote sensing imagery can help reveal the nature of the changes of ice sheet evolution. Most of the scientific research on Antarctica with satellite remote sensing dated from 1970s after LANDSAT satellite was brought into operation. It was the declassification of the cold war satellite reconnaissance photographs in 1995, known as Declassified Intelligence Satellite Photograph (DISP) that provided a direct overall view of the Antarctica ice-sheet's configuration in 1960s, greatly extending the time span of Antarctica surface observations. This paper will present the evaluation of ice-sheet evolution and coastline changes in Amery Ice Shelf from 1960s, by using multi-source remote sensing images including the DISP images and the modern optical satellite images. The DISP images scanned from negatives were first interior-oriented with the associated parameters, and then bundle block adjustment technology was employed based on the tie points and control points, to derive the mosaic image of the research region. Experimental results of coastlines generated

  15. Land-cover change analysis in 50 global cities by using a combination of Landsat data and analysis of grid cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bagan, Hasi; Yamagata, Yoshiki

    2014-01-01

    Global urban expansion has created incentives to convert green spaces to urban/built-up area. Therefore, understanding the distribution and dynamics of the land-cover changes in cities is essential for better understanding of the cities’ fundamental characteristics and processes, and of the impact of changing land-cover on potential carbon storage. We present a grid square approach using multi-temporal Landsat data from around 1985–2010 to monitor the spatio-temporal land-cover dynamics of 50 global cities. The maximum-likelihood classification method is applied to Landsat data to define the cities’ urbanized areas at different points in time. Subsequently, 1 km 2 grid squares with unique cell IDs are designed to link among land-cover maps for spatio-temporal land-cover change analysis. Then, we calculate land-cover category proportions for each map in 1 km 2 grid cells. Statistical comparison of the land-cover changes in grid square cells shows that urban area expansion in 50 global cities was strongly negatively correlated with forest, cropland and grassland changes. The generated land-cover proportions in 1 km 2 grid cells and the spatial relationships between the changes of land-cover classes are critical for understanding past patterns and the consequences of urban development so as to inform future urban planning, risk management and conservation strategies. (letters)

  16. The Open Global Glacier Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marzeion, B.; Maussion, F.

    2017-12-01

    Mountain glaciers are one of the few remaining sub-systems of the global climate system for which no globally applicable, open source, community-driven model exists. Notable examples from the ice sheet community include the Parallel Ice Sheet Model or Elmer/Ice. While the atmospheric modeling community has a long tradition of sharing models (e.g. the Weather Research and Forecasting model) or comparing them (e.g. the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project or CMIP), recent initiatives originating from the glaciological community show a new willingness to better coordinate global research efforts following the CMIP example (e.g. the Glacier Model Intercomparison Project or the Glacier Ice Thickness Estimation Working Group). In the recent past, great advances have been made in the global availability of data and methods relevant for glacier modeling, spanning glacier outlines, automatized glacier centerline identification, bed rock inversion methods, and global topographic data sets. Taken together, these advances now allow the ice dynamics of glaciers to be modeled on a global scale, provided that adequate modeling platforms are available. Here, we present the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM), developed to provide a global scale, modular, and open source numerical model framework for consistently simulating past and future global scale glacier change. Global not only in the sense of leading to meaningful results for all glaciers combined, but also for any small ensemble of glaciers, e.g. at the headwater catchment scale. Modular to allow combinations of different approaches to the representation of ice flow and surface mass balance, enabling a new kind of model intercomparison. Open source so that the code can be read and used by anyone and so that new modules can be added and discussed by the community, following the principles of open governance. Consistent in order to provide uncertainty measures at all realizable scales.

  17. Antarctic Circumpolar Current Dynamics and Their Relation to Antarctic Ice Sheet and Perennial Sea-Ice Variability in the Central Drake Passage During the Last Climate Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuhn, G.; Wu, S.; Hass, H. C.; Klages, J. P.; Zheng, X.; Arz, H. W.; Esper, O.; Hillenbrand, C. D.; Lange, C.; Lamy, F.; Lohmann, G.; Müller, J.; McCave, I. N. N.; Nürnberg, D.; Roberts, J.; Tiedemann, R.; Timmermann, A.; Titschack, J.; Zhang, X.

    2017-12-01

    The evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet during the last climate cycle and the interrelation to global atmospheric and ocean circulation remains controversial and plays an important role for our understanding of ice sheet response to modern global warming. The timing and sequence of deglacial warming is relevant for understanding the variability and sensitivity of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to climatic changes, and the continuing rise of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The Antarctic Ice Sheet is a pivotal component of the global water budget. Freshwater fluxes from the ice sheet may affect the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), which is strongly impacted by the westerly wind belt in the Southern Hemisphere (SHWW) and constricted to its narrowest extent in the Drake Passage. The flow of ACC water masses through Drake Passage is, therefore, crucial for advancing our understanding of the Southern Ocean's role in global meridional overturning circulation and global climate change. In order to address orbital and millennial-scale variability of the Antarctic ice sheet and the ACC, we applied a multi-proxy approach on a sediment core from the central Drake Passage including grain size, iceberg-rafted debris, mineral dust, bulk chemical and mineralogical composition, and physical properties. In combination with already published and new sediment records from the Drake Passage and Scotia Sea, as well as high-resolution data from Antarctic ice cores (WDC, EDML), we now have evidence that during glacial times a more northerly extent of the perennial sea-ice zone decreased ACC current velocities in the central Drake Passage. During deglaciation the SHWW shifted southwards due to a decreasing temperature gradient between subtropical and polar latitudes caused by sea ice and ice sheet decline. This in turn caused Southern Hemisphere warming, a more vigorous ACC, stronger Southern Ocean ventilation, and warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) upwelling on Antarctic shelves

  18. Historical and future perspectives of global soil carbon response to climate and land-use changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eglin, T.; Ciais, P.; Piao, S. L.; Barre, P.; Bellassen, V.; Cadule, P.; Chenu, C.; Gasser, T.; Koven, C.; Reichstein, M.; Smith, P.

    2010-11-01

    ABSTRACT In this paper, we attempt to analyse the respective influences of land-use and climate changes on the global and regional balances of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks. Two time periods are analysed: the historical period 1901-2000 and the period 2000-2100. The historical period is analysed using a synthesis of published data as well as new global and regional model simulations, and the future is analysed using models only. Historical land cover changes have resulted globally in SOC release into the atmosphere. This human induced SOC decrease was nearly balanced by the net SOC increase due to higher CO2 and rainfall. Mechanization of agriculture after the 1950s has accelerated SOC losses in croplands, whereas development of carbon-sequestering practices over the past decades may have limited SOC loss from arable soils. In some regions (Europe, China and USA), croplands are currently estimated to be either a small C sink or a small source, but not a large source of CO2 to the atmosphere. In the future, according to terrestrial biosphere and climate models projections, both climate and land cover changes might cause a net SOC loss, particularly in tropical regions. The timing, magnitude, and regional distribution of future SOC changes are all highly uncertain. Reducing this uncertainty requires improving future anthropogenic CO2 emissions and land-use scenarios and better understanding of biogeochemical processes that control SOC turnover, for both managed and un-managed ecosystems.

  19. Ice Storms in a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-01

    CHANGING CLIMATE by Jennifer M. McNitt June 2016 Thesis Advisor: Wendell Nuss Co-Advisor: David W. Titley THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT...SUBTITLE ICE STORMS IN A CHANGING CLIMATE 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Jennifer M. McNitt 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS...increase in global temperatures, due to climate change, could affect the frequency, intensity, and geographic location of ice storms. Three known ice

  20. Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections: a global-scale model comparison.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prestele, Reinhard; Alexander, Peter; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Arneth, Almut; Calvin, Katherine; Doelman, Jonathan; Eitelberg, David A; Engström, Kerstin; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Jain, Atul K; Krisztin, Tamás; Kyle, Page; Meiyappan, Prasanth; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald D; Schaldach, Rüdiger; Schüngel, Jan; Stehfest, Elke; Tabeau, Andrzej; Van Meijl, Hans; Van Vliet, Jasper; Verburg, Peter H

    2016-12-01

    Model-based global projections of future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global-scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, model structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios, we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g., boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas originates from different input data applied in the models. Cropland, in contrast, is more consistent among the starting conditions, while variation in the projections gradually increases over time due to diverse scenario assumptions and different modeling approaches. Comparisons at the grid cell level indicate that disagreement is mainly related to LULC type definitions and the individual model allocation schemes. We conclude that improving the quality and consistency of observational data utilized in the modeling process and improving the allocation mechanisms of LULC change models remain important challenges. Current LULC representation in environmental assessments might miss the uncertainty arising from the diversity of LULC change modeling approaches, and many studies ignore the uncertainty in LULC projections in assessments of LULC

  1. Increasing importance of precipitation variability on global livestock grazing lands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sloat, Lindsey L.; Gerber, James S.; Samberg, Leah H.; Smith, William K.; Herrero, Mario; Ferreira, Laerte G.; Godde, Cécile M.; West, Paul C.

    2018-03-01

    Pastures and rangelands underpin global meat and milk production and are a critical resource for millions of people dependent on livestock for food security1,2. Forage growth, which is highly climate dependent3,4, is potentially vulnerable to climate change, although precisely where and to what extent remains relatively unexplored. In this study, we assess climate-based threats to global pastures, with a specific focus on changes in within- and between-year precipitation variability (precipitation concentration index (PCI) and coefficient of variation of precipitation (CVP), respectively). Relating global satellite measures of vegetation greenness (such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index; NDVI) to key climatic factors reveals that CVP is a significant, yet often overlooked, constraint on vegetation productivity across global pastures. Using independent stocking data, we found that areas with high CVP support lower livestock densities than less-variable regions. Globally, pastures experience about a 25% greater year-to-year precipitation variation (CVP = 0.27) than the average global land surface area (0.21). Over the past century, CVP has generally increased across pasture areas, although both positive (49% of pasture area) and negative (31% of pasture area) trends exist. We identify regions in which livestock grazing is important for local food access and economies, and discuss the potential for pasture intensification in the context of long-term regional trends in precipitation variability.

  2. Global and regional effects of land-use change on climate in 21. century simulations with interactive carbon cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boysen, L.R.; Brovkin, V.; Pongratz, J.; Gayler, V.; Arora, V.K.; Cadule, P.; Noblet-Ducoudre, N. de; Kato, E.

    2014-01-01

    Bio-geophysical (BGP) and biogeochemical (BGC) effects of land-use and land cover change (LULCC) are separated at the global and regional scales in new interactive CO 2 simulations for the 21. century. Results from four earth system models (ESMs) are analyzed for the future RCP8.5 scenario from simulations with and without land-use and land cover change (LULCC), contributing to the Land-Use and Climate, Identification of robust impacts (LUCID) project. Over the period 2006-2100, LULCC causes the atmospheric CO 2 concentration to increase by 12, 22, and 66 ppm in CanESM2, MIROC-ESM, and MPI-ESM-LR, respectively. Statistically significant changes in global near-surface temperature are found in three models with a BGC induced global mean annual warming between 0.07 and 0.23 K. BGP-induced responses are simulated by three models in areas of intense LULCC of varying sign and magnitude (between -0.47 and 0.10 K). Modifications of the land carbon pool by LULCC are disentangled in accordance with processes that can lead to increases and decreases in this carbon pool. Global land carbon losses due to LULCC are simulated by all models: 218, 57, 35 and 34 Gt C by MPI-ESM-LR, MIROC-ESM, IPSL-CM5A-LR and CanESM2, respectively. On the contrary, the CO 2 -fertilization effect caused by elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations due to LULCC leads to a land carbon gain of 39 Gt C in MPI-ESM-LR and is almost negligible in the other models. A substantial part of the spread in models' responses to LULCC is attributed to the differences in implementation of LULCC (e.g., whether pastures or crops are simulated explicitly) and the simulation of specific processes. Simple idealized experiments with clear protocols for implementing LULCC in ESMs are needed to increase the understanding of model responses and the statistical significance of results, especially when analyzing the regional-scale impacts of LULCC. (authors)

  3. Comparison of regional and global land cover products and the implications for biogenic emission modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ling; McDonald-Buller, Elena; McGaughey, Gary; Kimura, Yosuke; Allen, David T

    2015-10-01

    Accurate estimates of biogenic emissions are required for air quality models that support the development of air quality management plans and attainment demonstrations. Land cover characterization is an essential driving input for most biogenic emissions models. This work contrasted the global Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land cover product against a regional land cover product developed for the Texas Commissions on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) over four climate regions in eastern Texas, where biogenic emissions comprise a large fraction of the total inventory of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and land cover is highly diverse. The Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN) was utilized to investigate the influences of land cover characterization on modeled isoprene and monoterpene emissions through changes in the standard emission potential and emission activity factor, both separately and simultaneously. In Central Texas, forest coverage was significantly lower in the MODIS land cover product relative to the TCEQ data, which resulted in substantially lower estimates of isoprene and monoterpene emissions by as much as 90%. Differences in predicted isoprene and monoterpene emissions associated with variability in land cover characterization were primarily caused by differences in the standard emission potential, which is dependent on plant functional type. Photochemical modeling was conducted to investigate the effects of differences in estimated biogenic emissions associated with land cover characterization on predicted ozone concentrations using the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx). Mean differences in maximum daily average 8-hour (MDA8) ozone concentrations were 2 to 6 ppb with maximum differences exceeding 20 ppb. Continued focus should be on reducing uncertainties in the representation of land cover through field validation. Uncertainties in the estimation of biogenic emissions associated with

  4. Is the available cropland and water enough for food demand? A global perspective of the Land-Water-Food nexus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibarrola-Rivas, M. J.; Granados-Ramírez, R.; Nonhebel, S.

    2017-12-01

    Land and water are essential local resources for food production but are limited. The main drivers of increasing food demand are population growth and dietary changes, which depend on the socioeconomic situation of the population. These two factors affect the availability of local resources: population growth reduces the land and water per person; and adoption of affluent diets increases the demand for land and water per person. This study shows potentials of global food supply by linking food demand drivers with national land and water availability. Whether the available land and water is enough to meet national food demand was calculated for 187 countries. The calculations were performed for the past situation (1960 and 2010) and to assess four future scenarios (2050) to discuss different paths of diets, population numbers and agricultural expansion. Inclusion of the demand perspective in the analysis has shown stronger challenges for future global food supply than have other studies. The results show that with the "business as usual" scenario, 40% of the global population in 2050 will live in countries with not enough land nor water to meet the demands of their population. Restriction to basic diets will be the most effective in lowering both land and water constraints. Our results identify both food production and food demand factors, and the regions that may experience the strongest challenges in 2050.

  5. Global Guidance On LCIA Indicators: Impacts Of Particulate Matter And Of Land Use

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jolliet, Olivier; Fantke, Peter; McKone, Thomas E.

    2017-01-01

    Improving life cycle impact assessment models is crucial. The flagship project of the UNEP-SETAC Life Cycle Initiative provides global guidance and consensus on environmental LCIA indicators for climate change, particulate matter impacts, land use impact on biodiversity, water scarcity and water ...

  6. Infill of tunnel valleys associated with landward‐flowing ice sheets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moreau, Julien; Huuse, Mads

    2014-01-01

    The southern termination of the Middle and Late Pleistocene Scandinavian ice sheets was repeatedly located in the southern North Sea (sNS) and adjacent, north-sloping land areas. Giant meltwater-excavated valleys (tunnel valleys) formed at the southern termination of the ice sheets and contain...

  7. Global Land Use Implications of Biofuels: State-of-the-Art

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kløverpris, Jesper; Wenzel, Henrik; Banse, Martin

    2008-01-01

    caused by an increased demand for biofuels. Main Features. The main feature of the conference was the crossbreeding The main feature of the conference was the crossbreeding of experience from the different approaches to land use modelling: The field of LCA could especially benefit from economic modelling...... in the identification of marginal crop production and the resulting expansion of the global agricultural area. Furthermore, the field of geography offers insights in the complexity behind new land cultivation and practical examples of where this is seen to occur on a regional scale. Results. Results presented...... potential of current and future The intensification potential of current and future crop and biomass production was widely discussed. It was generally agreed that some parts of the third world hold large potentials for intensification, which are not realised due to a number of barriers resulting in so...

  8. Dry calving processes at the ice cliff of an antarctic local glacier: the study case of Strandline Glacier (Northern Victoria Land, Antarctica)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smiraglia, C.; Motta, M.; Vassena, G.; Diolaiuti, G.

    2003-04-01

    In Antartic coastal area, where the ice sheet and the large outlet glaciers do not reach the sea and where some rugged mountain chains are often present, many small glaciers can be found. They are the so called local or alpine type glaciers, which have their terminus ground-based such as the real alpine glaciers and rarely reach the main valley floors. They are practically isolated and independent from the supply flowing down from the plateau and their mass balance is mainly controlled by sublimation and aeolic erosion and accumulation. The glaciers closer to the coast are submitted to the melting as well, and when the terminus is cliff-shaped they are also affected by dry calving. The most known and studied Antarctic local glaciers are placed in the Dry Valleys region (Chinn, 1985), but this kind of glaciers is also diffused all along the Northern Victoria Land coastal region (Chinn and others, 1989). Since the first Italian Antarctic expedition (1985), many studies have been carried out on this type of glaciers, which can be usefull for detailed mass balance evaluations and for obtaining information about the effects of the present climatic dynamics on the Antarctic coastal environment (Baroni and Orombelli, 1987; Baroni and others, 1995; Meneghel, 1999; Vassena and others., 2001). The Strandline Glacier (74 41 S; 164 07 E), in particular is a small alpine glacier (0,79 kmq) on the coast of Terra Nova Bay, Northern Victoria Land; it is a cold glacier where accumulation and ablation basins are mainly controlled by wind processes. Its terminus forms in the central part a grounded ice cliff about 30 m high, about 130 m far from the sea. On that glacier mass balance, surface velocity and calving rate were measured. During the southern summer season 2000-2001 many topographycal profiles of the ice cliff were surveyed by using both classical topographical and glaciological methods (total station and stakes) and GPS technique. It was so possible to detect the short term

  9. The GEWEX LandFlux project: evaluation of model evaporation using tower-based and globally gridded forcing data

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCabe, M. F.; Ershadi, A.; Jimenez, C.; Miralles, D. G.; Michel, D.; Wood, E. F.

    2016-01-01

    Determining the spatial distribution and temporal development of evaporation at regional and global scales is required to improve our understanding of the coupled water and energy cycles and to better monitor any changes in observed trends and variability of linked hydrological processes. With recent international efforts guiding the development of long-term and globally distributed flux estimates, continued product assessments are required to inform upon the selection of suitable model structures and also to establish the appropriateness of these multi-model simulations for global application. In support of the objectives of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Exchanges (GEWEX) LandFlux project, four commonly used evaporation models are evaluated against data from tower-based eddy-covariance observations, distributed across a range of biomes and climate zones. The selected schemes include the Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) approach, the Priestley-Taylor Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PT-JPL) model, the Penman-Monteith-based Mu model (PM-Mu) and the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM). Here we seek to examine the fidelity of global evaporation simulations by examining the multi-model response to varying sources of forcing data. To do this, we perform parallel and collocated model simulations using tower-based data together with a global-scale grid-based forcing product. Through quantifying the multi-model response to high-quality tower data, a better understanding of the subsequent model response to the coarse-scale globally gridded data that underlies the LandFlux product can be obtained, while also providing a relative evaluation and assessment of model performance. Using surface flux observations from 45 globally distributed eddy-covariance stations as independent metrics of performance, the tower-based analysis indicated that PT-JPL provided the highest overall statistical performance (0.72; 61 W m-2; 0.65), followed closely by GLEAM (0.68; 64 W m-2

  10. Cattle ranching intensification in Brazil can reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by sparing land from deforestation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohn, Avery S; Mosnier, Aline; Havlík, Petr; Valin, Hugo; Herrero, Mario; Schmid, Erwin; O'Hare, Michael; Obersteiner, Michael

    2014-05-20

    This study examines whether policies to encourage cattle ranching intensification in Brazil can abate global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by sparing land from deforestation. We use an economic model of global land use to investigate, from 2010 to 2030, the global agricultural outcomes, land use changes, and GHG abatement resulting from two potential Brazilian policies: a tax on cattle from conventional pasture and a subsidy for cattle from semi-intensive pasture. We find that under either policy, Brazil could achieve considerable sparing of forests and abatement of GHGs, in line with its national policy targets. The land spared, particularly under the tax, is far less than proportional to the productivity increased. However, the tax, despite prompting less adoption of semi-intensive ranching, delivers slightly more forest sparing and GHG abatement than the subsidy. This difference is explained by increased deforestation associated with increased beef consumption under the subsidy and reduced deforestation associated with reduced beef consumption under the tax. Complementary policies to directly limit deforestation could help limit these effects. GHG abatement from either the tax or subsidy appears inexpensive but, over time, the tax would become cheaper than the subsidy. A revenue-neutral combination of the policies could be an element of a sustainable development strategy for Brazil and other emerging economies seeking to balance agricultural development and forest protection.

  11. Ice nucleation properties of mineral dusts

    OpenAIRE

    Steinke, Isabelle

    2013-01-01

    Ice nucleation in clouds has a significant impact on the global hydrological cycle as well as on the radiative budget of the Earth. The AIDA cloud chamber was used to investigate the ice nucleation efficiency of various atmospherically relevant mineral dusts. From experiments with Arizona Test Dust (ATD) a humidity and temperature dependent ice nucleation active surface site density parameterization was developed to describe deposition nucleation at temperatures above 220 K. Based...

  12. MODIS Snow and Sea Ice Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Dorothy K.; Riggs, George A.; Salomonson, Vincent V.

    2004-01-01

    In this chapter, we describe the suite of Earth Observing System (EOS) Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Terra and Aqua snow and sea ice products. Global, daily products, developed at Goddard Space Flight Center, are archived and distributed through the National Snow and Ice Data Center at various resolutions and on different grids useful for different communities Snow products include binary snow cover, snow albedo, and in the near future, fraction of snow in a 5OO-m pixel. Sea ice products include ice extent determined with two different algorithms, and sea ice surface temperature. The algorithms used to develop these products are described. Both the snow and sea ice products, available since February 24,2000, are useful for modelers. Validation of the products is also discussed.

  13. U.S. Geological Survey climate and land use change science strategy: a framework for understanding and responding to global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkett, Virginia R.; Kirtland, David A.; Taylor, Ione L.; Belnap, Jayne; Cronin, Thomas M.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Frazier, Eldrich L.; Haines, John W.; Loveland, Thomas R.; Milly, Paul C.D.; ,; ,; ,; Robert, S.; Maule, Alec G.; McMahon, Gerard; Striegl, Robert G.

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), a nonregulatory Federal science agency with national scope and responsibilities, is uniquely positioned to serve the Nation’s needs in understanding and responding to global change, including changes in climate, water availability, sea level, land use and land cover, ecosystems, and global biogeochemical cycles. Global change is among the most challenging and formidable issues confronting our Nation and society. Scientists agree that global environmental changes during this century will have far-reaching societal implications (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007; U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2009). In the face of these challenges, the Nation can benefit greatly by using natural science information in decisionmaking.

  14. Three Global Land Cover and Use Stage considering Environmental Condition and Economic Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, W. K.; Song, C.; Moon, J.; Ryu, D.

    2016-12-01

    The Mid-Latitude zone can be broadly defined as part of the hemisphere between around 30° - 60° latitude. This zone is a home to over more than 50% of the world population and encompasses about 36 countries throughout the principal regions which host most of the global problems related to development and poverty. Mid-Latitude region and its ecotone demands in-depth analysis, however, latitudinal approach has not been widely recognized, considering that many of natural resources and environment indicators, as well as social and economic indicators are based on administrative basis or by country and regional boundaries. This study sets the land cover change and use stage based on environmental condition and economic development. Because various land cover and use among the regions, form vegetated parts of East Asia and Mediterranean to deserted parts of Central Asia, the forest area was varied between countries. In addition, some nations such as North Korea, Afghanistan, Pakistan showed decreasing trends in forest area whereas some nations showed increasing trends in forest area. The economic capacity for environmental activities and policies for restoration were different among countries. By adopting the standard from IMF or World Bank, developing and developed counties were classified. Based on the classification, this study suggested the land cover and use stages as degradation, restoration, and sustainability. As the degradation stage, the nations which had decreasing forest area with less environmental restoration capacity based on economic size were selected. As the restoration stage, the nation which had increasing forest area or restoration capacity were selected. In the case of the sustainability, the nation which had enough restoration capacity with increasing forest area or small ratio in forest area decreasing were selected. In reviewing some of the past and current major environmental challenges that regions of Mid-Latitudes are facing, grouping by

  15. Multiple climate regimes in an idealized lake-ice-atmosphere model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugiyama, Noriyuki; Kravtsov, Sergey; Roebber, Paul

    2018-01-01

    In recent decades, the Laurentian Great Lakes have undergone rapid surface warming with the summertime trends substantially exceeding the warming rates of surrounding land. Warming of the deepest (Lake Superior) was the strongest, and that of the shallowest (Lake Erie)—the weakest of all lakes. To investigate the dynamics of accelerated lake warming, we considered single-column and multi-column thermodynamic lake-ice models coupled to an idealized two-layer atmosphere. The variable temperature of the upper atmospheric layer—a proxy for the large-scale atmospheric forcing—consisted, in the most general case, of a linear trend mimicking the global warming and atmospheric interannual variability, both on top of the prescribed seasonal cycle of the upper-air temperature. The atmospheric boundary layer of the coupled model exchanged heat with the lake and exhibited lateral diffusive heat transports between the adjacent atmospheric columns. In simpler single-column models, we find that, for a certain range of periodic atmospheric forcing, each lake possesses two stable equilibrium seasonal cycles, which we call "regimes"—with and without lake-ice occurrence in winter and with corresponding cold and warm temperatures in the following summer, respectively, all under an identical seasonally varying external forcing. Deeper lakes exhibit larger differences in their summertime surface water temperature between the warm and cold regimes, due to their larger thermal and dynamical inertia. The regime behavior of multi-column coupled models is similar but more complex, and in some cases, they admit more than two stable equilibrium seasonal cycles, with varying degrees of wintertime ice-cover. The simulated lake response to climate change in the presence of the atmospheric noise rationalizes the observed accelerated warming of the lakes, the correlation between wintertime ice cover and next summer's lake-surface temperature, as well as higher warming trends of the

  16. A marine biogenic source of atmospheric ice-nucleating particles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilson, T. W.; Ladino, L. A.; Alpert, Peter A.; Breckels, M. N.; Brooks, I. M.; Browse, J.; Burrows, Susannah M.; Carslaw, K. S.; Huffman, J. A.; Judd, C.; Kilthau, W. P.; Mason, R. H.; McFiggans, Gordon; Miller, L. A.; Najera, J.; Polishchuk, E. A.; Rae, S.; Schiller, C. L.; Si, M.; Vergara Temprado, J.; Whale, Thomas; Wong, J P S; Wurl, O.; Yakobi-Hancock, J. D.; Abbatt, JPD; Aller, Josephine Y.; Bertram, Allan K.; Knopf, Daniel A.; Murray, Benjamin J.

    2015-09-09

    The formation of ice in clouds is facilitated by the presence of airborne ice nucleating particles1,2. Sea spray is one of the major global sources of atmospheric particles, but it is unclear to what extent these particles are capable of nucleating ice3–11. Here we show that material in the sea surface microlayer, which is enriched in surface active organic material representative of that found in sub-micron sea- spray aerosol12–21, nucleates ice under conditions that occur in mixed-phase clouds and high-altitude ice clouds. The ice active material is likely biogenic and is less than ~0.2 ?m in size. We also show that organic material (exudate) released by a common marine diatom nucleates ice when separated from cells and propose that organic material associated with phytoplankton cell exudates are a candidate for the observed ice nucleating ability of the microlayer samples. By combining our measurements with global model simulations of marine organic aerosol, we show that ice nucleating particles of marine origin are dominant in remote marine environments, such as the Southern Ocean, the North Pacific and the North Atlantic.

  17. Implications of various land use change scenarios on global water scarcity over the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Y.; Hejazi, M. I.; Vernon, C. R.; Li, X.; Le Page, Y.; Calvin, K. V.

    2017-12-01

    While the effects of land use and land cover change (LULCC) on hydrological processes (e.g., runoff, peak flow and discharge) and water availability have been extensively researched, the impacts of LULCC on water scarcity has been rarely investigated. Water scarcity, usually defined as the ratio of water demand to available renewable water supply. The involved water demand is an important human-dimension factor, which is affected by both socio-economic conditions (e.g., population, income) as well as LULCC (e.g., the amount of land we dedicate for food, feed, and fuel crops). Recent studies have assessed the combined effects of climate change and human interventions (e.g., dams, water withdrawals and LULCC) on water scarcity, but none to date has focused on the implications of different pathways of LULCC alone on water scarcity. We establish a set of LULCC scenarios under changing climate and socioeconomic pathways using an integrated assessment model - Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), which integrates natural systems (e.g., water supply, ecosystems, climate) and human systems (e.g., water demand, land use, economy, food, energy, population). The LULCC scenarios encompass varying degrees of protected areas, different magnitudes of crop/bioenergy production and subsidies, and whether to penalize potential land use emissions from bioenergy production (e.g., loss of wood carbon stock from land conversion). Then we investigate how water scarcity responds to LULCC and how the distribution of global population under severe water stress varies in the 21st century. Preliminary results indicate that the LULCC-induced changes in water scarcity are overall small at the global scale (water stress and population being affected. Findings from this research could be used to inform strategies focused on alleviating water stress around the world.

  18. Measurement of the fracture toughness of polycrystalline bubbly ice from an Antarctic ice core

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Christmann

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The critical fracture toughness is a material parameter describing the resistance of a cracked body to further crack extension. It is an important parameter for simulating and predicting the breakup behavior of ice shelves from the calving of single icebergs to the disintegration of entire ice shelves over a wide range of length scales. The fracture toughness values are calculated with equations that are derived from an elastic stress analysis. Additionally, an X-ray computer tomography (CT scanner was used to identify the density as a function of depth. The critical fracture toughness of 91 Antarctic bubbly ice samples with densities between 840 and 870 kg m−3 has been determined by applying a four-point bending technique on single-edge v-notched beam samples. The examined ice core was drilled 70 m north of Kohnen Station, Dronnning Maud Land (75°00' S, 00°04' E; 2882 m. Supplementary data are available at doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.835321.

  19. Tracing trade-related telecouplings in the global land-system using the embodied human appropriation of net primary production framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haberl, H.; Kastner, T.; Schaffartzik, A.; Erb, K. H.

    2015-12-01

    Global land-system change is influenced by a complex set of drivers that transcend spatial, institutional and temporal scales. The notion of "telecouplings" is gaining importance in Land System Science as a framework to address that complexity of drivers. One of them is the trade in land-based products, which forges connections between different geographic regions. Trade in land-based products is growing rapidly, thereby creating an increasing spatial disconnect between the locations where primary products (e.g. crops, fodder or timber) are grown and harvested and where the related environmental pressures occur, and the locations where final products (e.g. food, fiber or bioenergy) are consumed. Governing land-related sustainability issues such as GHG emissions or pressures on biodiversity and ecosystems related with land-use changes requires information on trade-related telecouplings, e.g. in order to avoid leakage effects. However, tracing land use (change) related with flows of traded products is challenging, among others due to (a) the lack of easily implementable metrics to account for differences in land quality and land-use intensity, and (b) the lack of satisfactory methods to allocate land to products that are traded and consumed. Drawing from a database derived from FAO statistics that allows tracing bilateral trade flows between ~200 countries at a resolution of ~500 products for the time period 1986-2006, this presentation will discuss how the framework of embodied human appropriation of net primary production (eHANPP) can help tackling these difficult issues. The HANPP framework allows to consistently represent important aspects of land quality and land-use intensity, e.g. natural productivity potential or land-use efficiency. In terms of allocation of land to products, eHANPP is a factor-based approach, and the presentation will discuss differences to alternative methods such as environmentally extended input-output analysis. We will use the available

  20. IODP Expedition 318: From Greenhouse to Icehouse at the Wilkes Land Antarctic Margin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Klaus

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP Expedition 318, Wilkes Land Glacial History, drilled a transect of sites across the Wilkes Land margin of Antarctica to provide a long-term record of the sedimentary archives of Cenozoic Antarctic glaciation and its intimate relationships with global climatic and oceanographic change. The Wilkes Land drilling program was undertaken to constrain the age, nature, and paleoenvironment of the previously only seismicallyinferred glacial sequences. The expedition (January–March 2010 recovered ~2000 meters of high-quality middle Eocene–Holocene sediments from water depths between 400 m and 4000 m at four sites on the Wilkes Land rise (U1355, U1356, U1359, and U1361 and three sites on the Wilkes Land shelf (U1357, U1358, and U1360. These records span ~53 million years of Antarctic history, and the various seismic units (WL-S4–WL-S9 have been successfully dated. The cores reveal the history of the Wilkes Land Antarctic margin from an ice-free “greenhouse” Antarctica, to the first cooling, to the onset and erosional consequences of the first glaciation and the subsequentdynamics of the waxing and waning ice sheets, all the way to thick, unprecedented “tree ring style” records with seasonal resolution of the last deglaciation that began ~10,000 y ago. The cores also reveal details of the tectonic history of the Australo-Antarctic Gulf from 53 Ma, portraying the onset of the second phase of rifting between Australia and Antarctica, to ever-subsiding margins and deepening,to the present continental and ever-widening ocean/continent configuration.

  1. The greenhouse effect and the Arctic ice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groenaas, Sigbjoern

    2002-01-01

    The impact on the Arctic ice of global warming is important for many people and for the environment. Less ice means changed conditions for the Inuits, hard times for the polar bears and changed conditions for the fishing sector. There is at present some uncertainty about the thickness of the ice and what might be the cause of its oscillation. It was reported a few years ago that the thickness of the ice had almost been reduced by 50 per cent since the 1950s and some researchers suggested that within a few decades the ice would disappear during the summer. These measurements have turned out not to be representative for the whole Arctic region, and it now appears that a great deal of the measured thickness variation can be attributed to changes in the atmospheric circulation. The article discusses the Arctic Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation in relation to the ice thickness, and climate models. Feedback mechanisms such as reduced albedo may have a big impact in the Arctic in a global greenhouse warming. Model simulations are at variance, and the scenarios for the future are uncertain

  2. From Public to Private Standards for Tropical Commodities: A Century of Global Discourse on Land Governance on the Forest Frontier

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Derek Byerlee

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Globalization and commodity exports have a long history in affecting land use changes and land rights on the tropical forest frontier. This paper reviews a century of social and environmental discourse around land issues for four commodities grown in the humid tropics—rubber, cocoa, oil palm and bananas. States have exercised sovereign rights over land and forest resources and the outcomes for deforestation and land rights of existing users have been quite varied depending on local institutional contexts and political economy. In the current period of globalization, as land use changes associated with tropical commodities have accelerated, land issues are now at center stage in the global discourse. However, efforts to protect forests and the rights of local communities and indigenous groups continue to be ad hoc and codification of minimum standards and their implementation remains a work in progress. Given a widespread failure of state directed policies and institutions to curb deforestation and protect land rights, the private sector, with the exception of the rubber industry, is emphasizing voluntary standards to certify sustainability of their products. This is an important step but expectations that they will effectively address concerns about the impact of tropical commodities expansion might be too high, given their voluntary nature, demand constraints, and the challenge of including smallholders. It is also doubtful that private standards can more than partially compensate for long standing weaknesses in land governance and institutions on the forest frontier.

  3. What did the Romans ever do for us? Putting humans in global land models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bierkens, M. F.; Wada, Y.; Dermody, B.; Van Beek, L. P.

    2016-12-01

    During the late 1980s and early 1990s, awareness of the shortage of global water resources lead to the first detailed global water resources assessments using regional statistics of water use and observations of meteorological and hydrological variables. Shortly thereafter, the first macroscale hydrological models (MHM) appeared. In these models, blue water (i.e., surface water and renewable groundwater) availability was calculated by accumulating runoff over a stream network and comparing it with population densities or with estimated water demand for agriculture, industry and households. In this talk we review the evolution of human impact modelling in global land models with a focus on global water resources, touching upon developments of the last 15 years: i.e. calculating human water scarcity; estimating groundwater depletion; adding dams and reservoirs; fully integrating water use (abstraction, application, consumption, return flow) in the hydrology; simulating the effects of land use change. We identify four major challenges that hamper the further development of integrated water resources modelling and thus prohibit realistic projections of the future terrestrial water cycle in the Anthropocene. These are: 1) including the ability to model infrastructural changes and measures; 2) projecting future water demand and water use and associated measures; 3) including virtual water trade; 4) including land use change and landscape change. While all these challenges will likely benefit from hydro-economics and the newly developing field of socio-hydrology, we also show that especially for challenges 3 and 4 lessons can be drawn from the (pre)historic past. To make this point we provide two case studies: one modelling the virtual water trade in the Roman Empire and one modelling human-landscape interaction in prehistoric Calabria (Italy).

  4. GLOBATO: An enhanced global relief model at 30 arc-seconds resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Leary, V.; Amante, C.

    2017-12-01

    The National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), an office of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), first developed a digital bathymetric and elevation model, ETOPO5, from publicly available data in 1993. For nearly 25 years, NCEI's ETOPO family of global relief models have supported research at a planetary scale, including tsunami forecasting, ocean circulation modeling, visualization of the seafloor, understanding geological phenomena, and aiding the development of other global and regional elevation models. GLOBATO (GLObal BAThymetry and TOpography) is now the most detailed version released by NCEI with a horizontal resolution of 30 arc-seconds and succeeds ETOPO1 with the inclusion of several new or updated data-sets for the seafloor as well as land areas. GLOBATO is a compilation of data derived from models of satellite measurements, ship depth soundings, and multibeam surveys, as well as regional models developed for Greenland and Antarctica. These data were converted from different formats, resolutions, spatial distributions, and projections into a single global model using GDAL v2.2 and MB-System v5.5. As with previous NCEI models, GLOBATO is available in two formats, "bedrock elevation" (measured as the base of major ice sheets) and "ice surface elevation" (measured as the surface of major ice sheets) which provides comprehensive topographic and bathymetric coverage between +- 90 degrees latitude and +- 180 degrees longitude. Adhering to best practices, GLOBATO, all related digital products, and any supporting documentation are available online through the NCEI data portal. These new, high resolution models will better support the variety of research ETOPO1 has made possible.

  5. How the Emitted Size Distribution and Mixing State of Feldspar Affect Ice Nucleating Particles in a Global Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perlwitz, J. P.; Fridlind, A. M.; Knopf, D. A.; Miller, R. L.; Pérez García-Pando, C.

    2017-12-01

    The effect of aerosol particles on ice nucleation and, in turn, the formation of ice and mixed phase clouds is recognized as one of the largest sources of uncertainty in climate prediction. We apply an improved dust mineral specific aerosol module in the NASA GISS Earth System ModelE, which takes into account soil aggregates and their fragmentation at emission as well as the emission of large particles. We calculate ice nucleating particle concentrations from K-feldspar abundance for an active site parameterization for a range of activation temperatures and external and internal mixing assumption. We find that the globally averaged INP concentration is reduced by a factor of two to three, compared to a simple assumption on the size distribution of emitted dust minerals. The decrease can amount to a factor of five in some geographical regions. The results vary little between external and internal mixing and different activation temperatures, except for the coldest temperatures. In the sectional size distribution, the size range 2-4 μm contributes the largest INP number.

  6. How the Emitted Size Distribution and Mixing State of Feldspar Affect Ice Nucleating Particles in a Global Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perlwitz, Jan P.; Fridlind, Ann M.; Knopf, Daniel A.; Miller, Ron L.; García-Pando, Carlos Perez

    2017-01-01

    The effect of aerosol particles on ice nucleation and, in turn, the formation of ice and mixed phase clouds is recognized as one of the largest sources of uncertainty in climate prediction. We apply an improved dust mineral specific aerosol module in the NASA GISS Earth System ModelE, which takes into account soil aggregates and their fragmentation at emission as well as the emission of large particles. We calculate ice nucleating particle concentrations from K-feldspar abundance for an active site parameterization for a range of activation temperatures and external and internal mixing assumption. We find that the globally averaged INP concentration is reduced by a factor of two to three, compared to a simple assumption on the size distribution of emitted dust minerals. The decrease can amount to a factor of five in some geographical regions. The results vary little between external and internal mixing and different activation temperatures, except for the coldest temperatures. In the sectional size distribution, the size range 24 micrometer contributes the largest INP number.

  7. Simulating Extraterrestrial Ices in the Laboratory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berisford, D. F.; Carey, E. M.; Hand, K. P.; Choukroun, M.

    2017-12-01

    Several ongoing experiments at JPL attempt to simulate the ice environment for various regimes associated with icy moons. The Europa Penitent Ice Experiment (EPIX) simulates the surface environment of an icy moon, to investigate the physics of ice surface morphology growth. This experiment features half-meter-scale cryogenic ice samples, cryogenic radiative sink environment, vacuum conditions, and diurnal cycling solar simulation. The experiment also includes several smaller fixed-geometry vacuum chambers for ice simulation at Earth-like and intermediate temperature and vacuum conditions for development of surface morphology growth scaling relations. Additionally, an ice cutting facility built on a similar platform provides qualitative data on the mechanical behavior of cryogenic ice with impurities under vacuum, and allows testing of ice cutting/sampling tools relevant for landing spacecraft. A larger cutting facility is under construction at JPL, which will provide more quantitative data and allow full-scale sampling tool tests. Another facility, the JPL Ice Physics Laboratory, features icy analog simulant preparation abilities that range icy solar system objects such as Mars, Ceres and the icy satellites of Saturn and Jupiter. In addition, the Ice Physics Lab has unique facilities for Icy Analog Tidal Simulation and Rheological Studies of Cryogenic Icy Slurries, as well as equipment to perform thermal and mechanical properties testing on icy analog materials and their response to sinusoidal tidal stresses.

  8. Global vegetation-fire pattern under different land use and climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thonicke, K.; Poulter, B.; Heyder, U.; Gumpenberger, M.; Cramer, W.

    2008-12-01

    Fire is a process of global significance in the Earth System influencing vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling and biophysical feedbacks. Naturally ignited wildfires have long history in the Earth System. Humans have been using fire to shape the landscape for their purposes for many millenia, sometimes influencing the status of the vegetation remarkably as for example in Mediterranean-type ecosystems. Processes and drivers describing fire danger, ignitions, fire spread and effects are relatively well-known for many fire-prone ecosystems. Modeling these has a long tradition in fire-affected regions to predict fire risk and behavior for fire-fighting purposes. On the other hand, the global vegetation community realized the importance of disturbances to be recognized in their global vegetation models with fire being globally most important and so-far best studied. First attempts to simulate fire globally considered a minimal set of drivers, whereas recent developments attempt to consider each fire process separately. The process-based fire model SPITFIRE (SPread and InTensity of FIRE) simulates these processes embedded in the LPJ DGVM. Uncertainties still arise from missing measurements for some parameters in less-studied fire regimes, or from broad PFT classifications which subsume different fire-ecological adaptations and tolerances. Some earth observation data sets as well as fire emission models help to evaluate seasonality and spatial distribution of simulated fire ignitions, area burnt and fire emissions within SPITFIRE. Deforestation fires are a major source of carbon released to the atmosphere in the tropics; in the Amazon basin it is the second-largest contributor to Brazils GHG emissions. How ongoing deforestation affects fire regimes, forest stability and biogeochemical cycling in the Amazon basin under present climate conditions will be presented. Relative importance of fire vs. climate and land use change is analyzed. Emissions resulting from

  9. The community Noah land surface model with multiparameterization options (Noah-MP): 2. Evaluation over global river basins

    KAUST Repository

    Yang, Zong-Liang; Niu, Guo-Yue; Mitchell, Kenneth E.; Chen, Fei; Ek, Michael B.; Barlage, Michael; Longuevergne, Laurent; Manning, Kevin; Niyogi, Dev; Tewari, Mukul; Xia, Youlong

    2011-01-01

    The augmented Noah land surface model described in the first part of the two-part series was evaluated here over global river basins. Across various climate zones, global-scale tests can reveal a model's weaknesses and strengths that a local

  10. Alternative U.S. biofuel mandates and global GHG emissions: The role of land use change, crop management and yield growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mosnier, A.; Havlík, P.; Valin, H.; Baker, J.; Murray, B.; Feng, S.; Obersteiner, M.; McCarl, B.A.; Rose, S.K.; Schneider, U.A.

    2013-01-01

    We investigate the impacts of the U.S. renewable fuel standard (RFS2) and several alternative biofuel policy designs on global GHG emissions from land use change and agriculture over the 2010–2030 horizon. Analysis of the scenarios relies on GLOBIOM, a global, multi-sectoral economic model based on a detailed representation of land use. Our results reveal that RFS2 would substantially increase the portion of agricultural land needed for biofuel feedstock production. U.S. exports of most agricultural products would decrease as long as the biofuel target would increase leading to higher land conversion and nitrogen use globally. In fact, higher levels of the mandate mean lower net emissions within the U.S. but when the emissions from the rest of the world are considered, the US biofuel policy results in almost no change on GHG emissions for the RFS2 level and higher global GHG emissions for higher levels of the mandate or higher share of conventional corn-ethanol in the mandate. Finally, we show that if the projected crop productivity would be lower globally, the imbalance between domestic U.S. GHG savings and additional GHG emissions in the rest of the world would increase, thus deteriorating the net global impact of U.S. biofuel policies. - Highlights: ► We model the impact of the U.S. renewable fuel standard (RFS2). ► RFS2 would require more agricultural land and nitrogen globally. ► Increasing the mandates reduce GHG emissions within the U.S. ► Increasing the mandates increase GHG emissions in the rest of the world. ► Total GHG emissions increase with higher levels of mandate; higher share of corn-ethanol; lower productivity growth

  11. Ice-rafting from the British-Irish ice sheet since the earliest Pleistocene (2.6 million years ago): implications for long-term mid-latitudinal ice-sheet growth in the North Atlantic region

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thierens, M.; Pirlet, H.; Colin, C.; Latruwe, K.; Vanhaecke, F.; Lee, J.R.; Stuut, J.-B.; Titschaeck, J.; Titschack, J.; Huvenne, V.; Dorschel, B.; Wheeler, A.J.; Henriet, J.P.

    2012-01-01

    The Plio-Pleistocene intensification of Northern Hemisphere continental ice-sheet development is known to have profoundly affected the global climate system. Evidence for early continental glaciation is preserved in sediments throughout the North Atlantic Ocean, where ice-rafted detritus (IRD)

  12. Harmonization of global land-use scenarios for the period 850-2100

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurtt, G. C.; Chini, L. P.; Sahajpal, R.; Frolking, S. E.; Fisk, J.; Bodirsky, B.; Calvin, K. V.; Fujimori, S.; Goldewijk, K.; Hasegawa, T.; Havlik, P.; Heinimann, A.; Humpenöder, F.; Kaplan, J. O.; Krisztin, T.; Lawrence, D. M.; Lawrence, P.; Mertz, O.; Popp, A.; Riahi, K.; Stehfest, E.; van Vuuren, D.; de Waal, L.; Zhang, X.

    2016-12-01

    Human land-use activities have resulted in large changes to the biogeochemical and biophysical properties of the Earth surface, with resulting implications for climate. In the future, land-use activities are likely to expand and/or intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. As part of the World Climate Research Program Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), the international community is developing the next generation of advanced Earth System Models (ESM) able to estimate the combined effects of human activities (e.g. land use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon-climate system. In addition, a new set of historical data based on HYDE, and multiple alternative scenarios of the future (2015-2100) from Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) teams, are being developed as input for these models. Here we present results from the Land-use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) project, with the goal to smoothly connect updated historical reconstructions of land-use with new future projections in the format required for ESMs. The harmonization strategy estimates the fractional land-use patterns, underlying land-use transitions, and key agricultural management information, and resulting secondary lands annually while minimizing the differences between the end of the historical reconstruction and IAM initial conditions, and working to preserve changes depicted by the IAMs in the future. The new approach builds off the approach from CMIP5, and is provided at higher resolution (0.25x0.25 degree), over longer time domain (850-2100), with more detail (including multiple crop and pasture types and associated management), using more inputs (including Landsat data), updated algorithms (wood harvest and shifting cultivation), and is assessed via a new diagnostic package. The new LUH2 products contain >50 times the information content of the datasets used in CMIP5, and are designed to enable new and improved estimates of the combined effects of land-use on the

  13. The global economic contribution of protected natural lands and wilderness through tourism

    Science.gov (United States)

    H. Ken Cordell; J. Michael Bowker

    2007-01-01

    These are the first-round results of a project aimed at exploring at a global scale the complex relationships between protected natural lands, tourism, and economic growth. In this fist round we mainly were interested in secondary sources of data and parameters from previously published studies. In presenting results for the 8th World Wilderness Congress, we provided...

  14. The GEWEX LandFlux project: evaluation of model evaporation using tower-based and globally-gridded forcing data

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCabe, M. F.; Ershadi, A.; Jimenez, C.; Miralles, D. G.; Michel, D.; Wood, E. F.

    2015-08-01

    Determining the spatial distribution and temporal development of evaporation at regional and global scales is required to improve our understanding of the coupled water and energy cycles and to better monitor any changes in observed trends and variability of linked hydrological processes. With recent international efforts guiding the development of long-term and globally distributed flux estimates, continued product assessments are required to inform upon the selection of suitable model structures and also to establish the appropriateness of these multi-model simulations for global application. In support of the objectives of the GEWEX LandFlux project, four commonly used evaporation models are evaluated against data from tower-based eddy-covariance observations, distributed across a range of biomes and climate zones. The selected schemes include the Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) approach, the Priestley-Taylor Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PT-JPL) model, the Penman-Monteith based Mu model (PM-Mu) and the Global Land Evaporation: the Amsterdam Methodology (GLEAM). Here we seek to examine the fidelity of global evaporation simulations by examining the multi-model response to varying sources of forcing data. To do this, we perform parallel and collocated model simulations using tower-based data together with a global-scale grid-based forcing product. Through quantifying the multi-model response to high-quality tower data, a better understanding of the subsequent model response to coarse-scale globally gridded data that underlies the LandFlux product can be obtained, while also providing a relative evaluation and assessment of model performance. Using surface flux observations from forty-five globally distributed eddy-covariance stations as independent metrics of performance, the tower-based analysis indicated that PT-JPL provided the highest overally statistical performance (0.72; 61 W m-2; 0.65), followed closely by GLEAM (0.68; 64 W m-2; 0.62), with values in

  15. Loss of sea ice in the Arctic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perovich, Donald K; Richter-Menge, Jacqueline A

    2009-01-01

    The Arctic sea ice cover is in decline. The areal extent of the ice cover has been decreasing for the past few decades at an accelerating rate. Evidence also points to a decrease in sea ice thickness and a reduction in the amount of thicker perennial sea ice. A general global warming trend has made the ice cover more vulnerable to natural fluctuations in atmospheric and oceanic forcing. The observed reduction in Arctic sea ice is a consequence of both thermodynamic and dynamic processes, including such factors as preconditioning of the ice cover, overall warming trends, changes in cloud coverage, shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns, increased export of older ice out of the Arctic, advection of ocean heat from the Pacific and North Atlantic, enhanced solar heating of the ocean, and the ice-albedo feedback. The diminishing Arctic sea ice is creating social, political, economic, and ecological challenges.

  16. Mars: Periglacial Morphology and Implications for Future Landing Sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heldmann, Jennifer L.; Schurmeier, Lauren; McKay, Christopher; Davila, Alfonso; Stoker, Carol; Marinova, Margarita; Wilhelm, Mary Beth

    2015-01-01

    At the Mars Phoenix landing site and in much of the Martian northern plains, there is ice-cemented ground beneath a layer of dry permafrost. Unlike most permafrost on Earth, though, this ice is not liquid at any time of year. However, in past epochs at higher obliquity the surface conditions during summer may have resulted in warmer conditions and possible melting. This situation indicates that the ice-cemented ground in the north polar plains is likely to be a candidate for the most recently habitable place on Mars as near-surface ice likely provided adequate water activity approximately 5 Myr ago. The high elevation Dry Valleys of Antarctica provide the best analog on Earth of Martian ground ice. These locations are the only places on Earth where ice-cemented ground is found beneath dry permafrost. The Dry Valleys are a hyper-arid polar desert environment and in locations above 1500 m elevation, such as University Valley, air temperatures do not exceed 0 C. Thus, similarly to Mars, liquid water is largely absent here and instead the hydrologic cycle is dominated by frozen ice and vapor phase processes such as sublimation. These conditions make the high elevation Dry Valleys a key Mars analog location where periglacial processes and geomorphic features can be studied in situ. This talk will focus on studies of University Valley as a Mars analog for periglacial morphology and ice stability. We will review a landing site selection study encompassing this information gleaned from the Antarctic terrestrial analog studies plus Mars spacecraft data analysis to identify candidate landing sites for a future mission to search for life on Mars.

  17. Stealing land in the name of religion: A Rastafari religio-political critique of land theft by global imperial forces

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roderick Hewitt

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The issue of land has been central to Rastafari origins and ideological construct. Ethiopia, Africa, Babylon, Zion and Jamaica are symbols that point not only to physical location but also their ideological and psychological identity formation. This article uses Rastafari hermeneutics to critique the phenomenon of African Jamaican uprooting and dispossession of and from their land by powerful and global conglomerate forces that use the instrument of politics, economic and religion to accomplish their agenda. This article uses the Rastafari theological reflections, a theoretical framework that employs the phenomenon of faith, tradition and experience to interrogate the phenomenon of displacement of people through land theft. The religio-political narrative of Jamar Rolando McNaughton Jr, a young Jamaican reggae artist popularly known by his stage name Chronixx, will serve as the principal lens through which to interrogate the phenomenon of landlessness among the poor, primarily within the Jamaican context.

  18. Multiphase Reactive Transport and Platelet Ice Accretion in the Sea Ice of McMurdo Sound, Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buffo, J. J.; Schmidt, B. E.; Huber, C.

    2018-01-01

    Sea ice seasonally to interannually forms a thermal, chemical, and physical boundary between the atmosphere and hydrosphere over tens of millions of square kilometers of ocean. Its presence affects both local and global climate and ocean dynamics, ice shelf processes, and biological communities. Accurate incorporation of sea ice growth and decay, and its associated thermal and physiochemical processes, is underrepresented in large-scale models due to the complex physics that dictate oceanic ice formation and evolution. Two phenomena complicate sea ice simulation, particularly in the Antarctic: the multiphase physics of reactive transport brought about by the inhomogeneous solidification of seawater, and the buoyancy driven accretion of platelet ice formed by supercooled ice shelf water onto the basal surface of the overlying ice. Here a one-dimensional finite difference model capable of simulating both processes is developed and tested against ice core data. Temperature, salinity, liquid fraction, fluid velocity, total salt content, and ice structure are computed during model runs. The model results agree well with empirical observations and simulations highlight the effect platelet ice accretion has on overall ice thickness and characteristics. Results from sensitivity studies emphasize the need to further constrain sea ice microstructure and the associated physics, particularly permeability-porosity relationships, if a complete model of sea ice evolution is to be obtained. Additionally, implications for terrestrial ice shelves and icy moons in the solar system are discussed.

  19. A reconstruction of global agricultural areas and land cover for the last millennium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pongratz, J.; Reick, C.; Raddatz, T.; Claussen, M.

    2008-09-01

    Humans have substantially modified the Earth's land cover, especially by transforming natural ecosystems to agricultural areas. In preindustrial times, the expansion of agriculture was probably the dominant process by which humankind altered the Earth system, but little is known about its extent, timing, and spatial pattern. This study presents an approach to reconstruct spatially explicit changes in global agricultural areas (cropland and pasture) and the resulting changes in land cover over the last millennium. The reconstruction is based on published maps of agricultural areas for the last three centuries. For earlier times, a country-based method is developed that uses population data as a proxy for agricultural activity. With this approach, the extent of cropland and pasture is consistently estimated since AD 800. The resulting reconstruction of agricultural areas is combined with a map of potential vegetation to estimate the resulting historical changes in land cover. Uncertainties associated with this approach, in particular owing to technological progress in agriculture and uncertainties in population estimates, are quantified. About 5 million km2 of natural vegetation are found to be transformed to agriculture between AD 800 and 1700, slightly more to cropland (mainly at the expense of forested area) than to pasture (mainly at the expense of natural grasslands). Historical events such as the Black Death in Europe led to considerable dynamics in land cover change on a regional scale. The reconstruction can be used with global climate and ecosystem models to assess the impact of human activities on the Earth system in preindustrial times.

  20. World in the drift-ice; Ryuhyo no sekai

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aota, M. [Hokkaido Univ., Hokkaido (Japan)

    1999-06-07

    What freezes in the sea in the circumference in our country is only Sea of Okhotsk. What will be the drift-ice for the people who live in this beach? The distress by the drift-ice often occurred. The drift-ice spoils tearing, shell in the pickpocket in respect of the fishing gear in respect of destruction and kelp. The boat was landed, when the drift-ice came, the fisherman came out, and it went to the labor. The seafood processing field becomes also the closure condition. The drift-ice was a white demon for people of the beach, and it was a troublesome person. In the meantime, the drift-ice soothes the wave, and it becomes a natural float breakwater, the coast is kept, and the salt damage does be held. There is some that it is faced the sea off beach cleaning. People of the seashore in Okohtsk live with the drift-ice with merits and both demerit sideses. (NEDO)

  1. On Land Ice Mass Change in Southernmost South America, Antarctic Peninsula and Coastal Antarctica consistent with GRACE, GPS and Reconstructed Ice History for Past 1000 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivins, Erik; Wiese, David; Watkins, Michael; Yuan, Dah-Ning; Landerer, Felix; Simms, Alex; Boening, Carmen

    2014-05-01

    The improved spatial coverage provided by high-quality Global Positioning System observing systems on exposed bedrock has allowed these space geodetic experiments to play an increasingly important role in constraining both glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) processes and viscoelastic responses to present-day glacial mass changes (PGMC). Improved constraints on models of ice mass change in the Southern Hemisphere at present-day, during the Little Ice Age, and during the Late Holocene are invaluable for reconciling climate and sea-level variability on a global scale during the present solar radiation forcing and Milankovic orbital configuration. Studies by Jacobs et al. (1992), Whitehouse et al. (2012), King et al. (2012), Boening et al (2012), and others, support the contention that GRACE observations of both GIA and PGMC in the Southern Hemisphere are dominated by the geography and climate of coastal environments. This makes the proper masking of those environments for GRACE-determinations of secular mass balance especially sensitive, and downscaling, rescaling, and use of correlation mascon methods a non-trivial part of the analysis. Here we employ two analysis methods to determine the mass balances of the Antarctic Peninsula and Patagonia and incorporate GPS observations of ongoing uplift for GIA correction into both. Using data that roughly span 2002-2013, we determine -25 ± 5 Gt/yr for the uncorrected Antarctic Peninsula (AP) and -12 Gt/yr for southern Patagonia and the Cordillera Darwin (PCD). With corrections for GIA these are increased to -34 ± 8 Gt/yr for AP and -22 ± 6 Gt/yr for PCD.

  2. The Role of Suomi NPP VIIRS Data in Land Science and Applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Justice, C. O.; Csiszar, I. A.; Roman, M. O.; Vermote, E.

    2014-12-01

    The current Suomi-NPP mission was designed as a bridging mission to the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) next-generation, operational satellites. The VIIRS instrument on-board Suomi-NPP provides continuity with NASA's Earth Observing System Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observations and a much-needed replacement of the long-serving, operational NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) system, to meet the expanding needs of Earth Science and Applications of Societal Benefit. Post-launch evaluation has proven the instrument to be excellent for land observations and capable of providing measurement continuity with MODIS. This provides a critical contribution to the scientific study of global change. Several regions of the World are undergoing rapid land transformations, driven by economic development and population growth. In addition, changes in climate conditions are resulting in ecosystem responses and changes in land cover and land use. Long-term, systematic observations of the global land surface at coarse resolution enable detection, monitoring and characterization of such changes to the land surface. A suite of Land environmental data records (EDRs) from the VIIRS, are being developed by NOAA to meet operational data needs, primarily for the National Weather Service (e.g., Albedo, Land Surface Temperature, Fractional Vegetation Cover, Surface Type, Snow and Ice Monitoring). Scientists funded by NOAA and NASA, have been evaluating and validating these products. Based on these evaluations, NASA is embarking on a program to develop enhanced and additional products to provide continuity with MODIS to meet the needs of the global change science community. In addition, and as with MODIS, data from the VIIRS can be used as input to a number of practical applications of societal benefit and the associated decision support systems. For example, progress with VIIRS data is being made in the areas of fire and agricultural monitoring

  3. Evaluation of global continental hydrology as simulated by the Land-surface Processes and eXchanges Dynamic Global Vegetation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. J. Murray

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Global freshwater resources are sensitive to changes in climate, land cover and population density and distribution. The Land-surface Processes and eXchanges Dynamic Global Vegetation Model is a recent development of the Lund-Potsdam-Jena model with improved representation of fire-vegetation interactions. It allows simultaneous consideration of the effects of changes in climate, CO2 concentration, natural vegetation and fire regime shifts on the continental hydrological cycle. Here the model is assessed for its ability to simulate large-scale spatial and temporal runoff patterns, in order to test its suitability for modelling future global water resources. Comparisons are made against observations of streamflow and a composite dataset of modelled and observed runoff (1986–1995 and are also evaluated against soil moisture data and the Palmer Drought Severity Index. The model captures the main features of the geographical distribution of global runoff, but tends to overestimate runoff in much of the Northern Hemisphere (where this can be somewhat accounted for by freshwater consumption and the unrealistic accumulation of the simulated winter snowpack in permafrost regions and the southern tropics. Interannual variability is represented reasonably well at the large catchment scale, as are seasonal flow timings and monthly high and low flow events. Further improvements to the simulation of intra-annual runoff might be achieved via the addition of river flow routing. Overestimates of runoff in some basins could likely be corrected by the inclusion of transmission losses and direct-channel evaporation.

  4. Hyperresolution global land surface modeling: Meeting a grand challenge for monitoring Earth's terrestrial water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Eric F.; Roundy, Joshua K.; Troy, Tara J.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.; Blyth, Eleanor; de Roo, Ad; DöLl, Petra; Ek, Mike; Famiglietti, James; Gochis, David; van de Giesen, Nick; Houser, Paul; Jaffé, Peter R.; Kollet, Stefan; Lehner, Bernhard; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Sivapalan, Murugesu; Sheffield, Justin; Wade, Andrew; Whitehead, Paul

    2011-05-01

    Monitoring Earth's terrestrial water conditions is critically important to many hydrological applications such as global food production; assessing water resources sustainability; and flood, drought, and climate change prediction. These needs have motivated the development of pilot monitoring and prediction systems for terrestrial hydrologic and vegetative states, but to date only at the rather coarse spatial resolutions (˜10-100 km) over continental to global domains. Adequately addressing critical water cycle science questions and applications requires systems that are implemented globally at much higher resolutions, on the order of 1 km, resolutions referred to as hyperresolution in the context of global land surface models. This opinion paper sets forth the needs and benefits for a system that would monitor and predict the Earth's terrestrial water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles. We discuss six major challenges in developing a system: improved representation of surface-subsurface interactions due to fine-scale topography and vegetation; improved representation of land-atmospheric interactions and resulting spatial information on soil moisture and evapotranspiration; inclusion of water quality as part of the biogeochemical cycle; representation of human impacts from water management; utilizing massively parallel computer systems and recent computational advances in solving hyperresolution models that will have up to 109 unknowns; and developing the required in situ and remote sensing global data sets. We deem the development of a global hyperresolution model for monitoring the terrestrial water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles a "grand challenge" to the community, and we call upon the international hydrologic community and the hydrological science support infrastructure to endorse the effort.

  5. Hyperresolution Global Land Surface Modeling: Meeting a Grand Challenge for Monitoring Earth's Terrestrial Water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Eric F.; Roundy, Joshua K.; Troy, Tara J.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.; 4 Blyth, Eleanor; de Roo, Ad; Doell. Petra; Ek, Mike; Famiglietti, James; hide

    2011-01-01

    Monitoring Earth's terrestrial water conditions is critically important to many hydrological applications such as global food production; assessing water resources sustainability; and flood, drought, and climate change prediction. These needs have motivated the development of pilot monitoring and prediction systems for terrestrial hydrologic and vegetative states, but to date only at the rather coarse spatial resolutions (approx.10-100 km) over continental to global domains. Adequately addressing critical water cycle science questions and applications requires systems that are implemented globally at much higher resolutions, on the order of 1 km, resolutions referred to as hyperresolution in the context of global land surface models. This opinion paper sets forth the needs and benefits for a system that would monitor and predict the Earth's terrestrial water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles. We discuss six major challenges in developing a system: improved representation of surface-subsurface interactions due to fine-scale topography and vegetation; improved representation of land-atmospheric interactions and resulting spatial information on soil moisture and evapotranspiration; inclusion of water quality as part of the biogeochemical cycle; representation of human impacts from water management; utilizing massively parallel computer systems and recent computational advances in solving hyperresolution models that will have up to 10(exp 9) unknowns; and developing the required in situ and remote sensing global data sets. We deem the development of a global hyperresolution model for monitoring the terrestrial water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles a grand challenge to the community, and we call upon the international hydrologic community and the hydrological science support infrastructure to endorse the effort.

  6. Global and regional effects of land-use change on climate in 21st century simulations with interactive carbon cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. R. Boysen

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Biogeophysical (BGP and biogeochemical (BGC effects of land-use and land cover change (LULCC are separated at the global and regional scales in new interactive CO2 simulations for the 21st century. Results from four earth system models (ESMs are analyzed for the future RCP8.5 scenario from simulations with and without land-use and land cover change (LULCC, contributing to the Land-Use and Climate, IDentification of robust impacts (LUCID project. Over the period 2006–2100, LULCC causes the atmospheric CO2 concentration to increase by 12, 22, and 66 ppm in CanESM2, MIROC-ESM, and MPI-ESM-LR, respectively. Statistically significant changes in global near-surface temperature are found in three models with a BGC-induced global mean annual warming between 0.07 and 0.23 K. BGP-induced responses are simulated by three models in areas of intense LULCC of varying sign and magnitude (between −0.47 and 0.10 K. Modifications of the land carbon pool by LULCC are disentangled in accordance with processes that can lead to increases and decreases in this carbon pool. Global land carbon losses due to LULCC are simulated by all models: 218, 57, 35 and 34 Gt C by MPI-ESM-LR, MIROC-ESM, IPSL-CM5A-LR and CanESM2, respectively. On the contrary, the CO2-fertilization effect caused by elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations due to LULCC leads to a land carbon gain of 39 Gt C in MPI-ESM-LR and is almost negligible in the other models. A substantial part of the spread in models' responses to LULCC is attributed to the differences in implementation of LULCC (e.g., whether pastures or crops are simulated explicitly and the simulation of specific processes. Simple idealized experiments with clear protocols for implementing LULCC in ESMs are needed to increase the understanding of model responses and the statistical significance of results, especially when analyzing the regional-scale impacts of LULCC.

  7. Influence of Sea Ice Crack Formation on the Spatial Distribution of Nutrients and Microalgae in Flooded Antarctic Multiyear Ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nomura, Daiki; Aoki, Shigeru; Simizu, Daisuke; Iida, Takahiro

    2018-02-01

    Cracks are common and natural features of sea ice formed in the polar oceans. In this study, a sea ice crack in flooded, multiyear, land-fast Antarctic sea ice was examined to assess its influence on biological productivity and the transport of nutrients and microalgae into the upper layers of neighboring sea ice. The water inside the crack and the surrounding host ice were characterized by a strong discoloration (brown color), an indicator of a massive algal bloom. Salinity and oxygen isotopic ratio measurements indicated that 64-84% of the crack water consisted of snow meltwater supplied during the melt season. Measurements of nutrient and chlorophyll a concentrations within the slush layer pool (the flooded layer at the snow-ice interface) revealed the intrusion of water from the crack, likely forced by mixing with underlying seawater during the tidal cycle. Our results suggest that sea ice crack formation provides conditions favorable for algal blooms by directly exposing the crack water to sunlight and supplying nutrients from the under-ice water. Subsequently, constituents of the crack water modified by biological activity were transported into the upper layer of the flooded sea ice. They were then preserved in the multiyear ice column formed by upward growth of sea ice caused by snow ice formation in areas of significant snow accumulation.

  8. The GEWEX LandFlux project: evaluation of model evaporation using tower-based and globally gridded forcing data

    KAUST Repository

    McCabe, Matthew; Ershadi, Ali; Jimenez, C.; Miralles, Diego G.; Michel, D.; Wood, E. F.

    2016-01-01

    Determining the spatial distribution and temporal development of evaporation at regional and global scales is required to improve our understanding of the coupled water and energy cycles and to better monitor any changes in observed trends and variability of linked hydrological processes. With recent international efforts guiding the development of long-term and globally distributed flux estimates, continued product assessments are required to inform upon the selection of suitable model structures and also to establish the appropriateness of these multi-model simulations for global application. In support of the objectives of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Exchanges (GEWEX) LandFlux project, four commonly used evaporation models are evaluated against data from tower-based eddy-covariance observations, distributed across a range of biomes and climate zones. The selected schemes include the Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) approach, the Priestley–Taylor Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PT-JPL) model, the Penman–Monteith-based Mu model (PM-Mu) and the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM). Here we seek to examine the fidelity of global evaporation simulations by examining the multi-model response to varying sources of forcing data. To do this, we perform parallel and collocated model simulations using tower-based data together with a global-scale grid-based forcing product. Through quantifying the multi-model response to high-quality tower data, a better understanding of the subsequent model response to the coarse-scale globally gridded data that underlies the LandFlux product can be obtained, while also providing a relative evaluation and assessment of model performance.

    Using surface flux observations from 45 globally distributed eddy-covariance stations as independent metrics of performance, the tower-based analysis indicated that PT-JPL provided the highest overall statistical performance (0.72; 61 W m−2; 0.65), followed

  9. The GEWEX LandFlux project: evaluation of model evaporation using tower-based and globally gridded forcing data

    KAUST Repository

    McCabe, Matthew

    2016-01-26

    Determining the spatial distribution and temporal development of evaporation at regional and global scales is required to improve our understanding of the coupled water and energy cycles and to better monitor any changes in observed trends and variability of linked hydrological processes. With recent international efforts guiding the development of long-term and globally distributed flux estimates, continued product assessments are required to inform upon the selection of suitable model structures and also to establish the appropriateness of these multi-model simulations for global application. In support of the objectives of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Exchanges (GEWEX) LandFlux project, four commonly used evaporation models are evaluated against data from tower-based eddy-covariance observations, distributed across a range of biomes and climate zones. The selected schemes include the Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) approach, the Priestley–Taylor Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PT-JPL) model, the Penman–Monteith-based Mu model (PM-Mu) and the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM). Here we seek to examine the fidelity of global evaporation simulations by examining the multi-model response to varying sources of forcing data. To do this, we perform parallel and collocated model simulations using tower-based data together with a global-scale grid-based forcing product. Through quantifying the multi-model response to high-quality tower data, a better understanding of the subsequent model response to the coarse-scale globally gridded data that underlies the LandFlux product can be obtained, while also providing a relative evaluation and assessment of model performance.

    Using surface flux observations from 45 globally distributed eddy-covariance stations as independent metrics of performance, the tower-based analysis indicated that PT-JPL provided the highest overall statistical performance (0.72; 61 W m−2; 0.65), followed

  10. Global mobile satellite communications theory for maritime, land and aeronautical applications

    CERN Document Server

    Ilčev, Stojče Dimov

    2017-01-01

    This book discusses current theory regarding global mobile satellite communications (GMSC) for maritime, land (road and rail), and aeronautical applications. It covers how these can enable connections between moving objects such as ships, road and rail vehicles and aircrafts on one hand, and on the other ground telecommunications subscribers through the medium of communications satellites, ground earth stations, Terrestrial Telecommunication Networks (TTN), Internet Service Providers (ISP) and other wireless and landline telecommunications providers. This new edition covers new developments and initiatives that have resulted in land and aeronautical applications and the introduction of new satellite constellations in non-geostationary orbits and projects of new hybrid satellite constellations. The book presents current GMSC trends, mobile system concepts and network architecture using a simple mode of style with understandable technical information, characteristics, graphics, illustrations and mathematics equ...

  11. Towards systematic evaluation of crop model outputs for global land-use models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leclere, David; Azevedo, Ligia B.; Skalský, Rastislav; Balkovič, Juraj; Havlík, Petr

    2016-04-01

    Land provides vital socioeconomic resources to the society, however at the cost of large environmental degradations. Global integrated models combining high resolution global gridded crop models (GGCMs) and global economic models (GEMs) are increasingly being used to inform sustainable solution for agricultural land-use. However, little effort has yet been done to evaluate and compare the accuracy of GGCM outputs. In addition, GGCM datasets require a large amount of parameters whose values and their variability across space are weakly constrained: increasing the accuracy of such dataset has a very high computing cost. Innovative evaluation methods are required both to ground credibility to the global integrated models, and to allow efficient parameter specification of GGCMs. We propose an evaluation strategy for GGCM datasets in the perspective of use in GEMs, illustrated with preliminary results from a novel dataset (the Hypercube) generated by the EPIC GGCM and used in the GLOBIOM land use GEM to inform on present-day crop yield, water and nutrient input needs for 16 crops x 15 management intensities, at a spatial resolution of 5 arc-minutes. We adopt the following principle: evaluation should provide a transparent diagnosis of model adequacy for its intended use. We briefly describe how the Hypercube data is generated and how it articulates with GLOBIOM in order to transparently identify the performances to be evaluated, as well as the main assumptions and data processing involved. Expected performances include adequately representing the sub-national heterogeneity in crop yield and input needs: i) in space, ii) across crop species, and iii) across management intensities. We will present and discuss measures of these expected performances and weight the relative contribution of crop model, input data and data processing steps in performances. We will also compare obtained yield gaps and main yield-limiting factors against the M3 dataset. Next steps include

  12. Toward Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Arctic Sea Ice Forecasting Using the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamal, S.; Maslowski, W.; Roberts, A.; Osinski, R.; Cassano, J. J.; Seefeldt, M. W.

    2017-12-01

    The Regional Arctic system model has been developed and used to advance the current state of Arctic modeling and increase the skill of sea ice forecast. RASM is a fully coupled, limited-area model that includes the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, land hydrology and runoff routing components and the flux coupler to exchange information among them. Boundary conditions are derived from NCEP Climate Forecasting System Reanalyses (CFSR) or Era Iterim (ERA-I) for hindcast simulations or from NCEP Coupled Forecast System Model version 2 (CFSv2) for seasonal forecasts. We have used RASM to produce sea ice forecasts for September 2016 and 2017, in contribution to the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) of the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN). Each year, we produced three SIOs for the September minimum, initialized on June 1, July 1 and August 1. In 2016, predictions used a simple linear regression model to correct for systematic biases and included the mean September sea ice extent, the daily minimum and the week of the minimum. In 2017, we produced a 12-member ensemble on June 1 and July 1, and 28-member ensemble August 1. The predictions of September 2017 included the pan-Arctic and regional Alaskan sea ice extent, daily and monthly mean pan-Arctic maps of sea ice probability, concentration and thickness. No bias correction was applied to the 2017 forecasts. Finally, we will also discuss future plans for RASM forecasts, which include increased resolution for model components, ecosystem predictions with marine biogeochemistry extensions (mBGC) to the ocean and sea ice components, and feasibility of optional boundary conditions using the Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM).

  13. Light-absorbing Particles in Snow and Ice: Measurement and Modeling of Climatic and Hydrological Impact

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qian, Yun; Yasunari, Teppei J.; Doherty, Sarah J.; Flanner, M. G.; Lau, William K.; Ming, J.; Wang, Hailong; Wang, Mo; Warren, Stephen G.; Zhang, Rudong

    2015-01-01

    Light absorbing particles (LAP, e.g., black carbon, brown carbon, and dust) influence water and energy budgets of the atmosphere and snowpack in multiple ways. In addition to their effects associated with atmospheric heating by absorption of solar radiation and interactions with clouds, LAP in snow on land and ice can reduce the surface reflectance (a.k.a., surface darkening), which is likely to accelerate the snow aging process and further reduces snow albedo and increases the speed of snowpack melt. LAP in snow and ice (LAPSI) has been identified as one of major forcings affecting climate change, e.g. in the fourth and fifth assessment reports of IPCC. However, the uncertainty level in quantifying this effect remains very high. In this review paper, we document various technical methods of measuring LAPSI and review the progress made in measuring the LAPSI in Arctic, Tibetan Plateau and other mid-latitude regions. We also report the progress in modeling the mass concentrations, albedo reduction, radiative forcing, andclimatic and hydrological impact of LAPSI at global and regional scales. Finally we identify some research needs for reducing the uncertainties in the impact of LAPSI on global and regional climate and the hydrological cycle.

  14. Living Lands

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Suna Møller

    2015-01-01

    , hunters attended to questions like safe-journeying on ice or the role of natural surroundings in children’s education, in ways revealing a relational perception of ‘nature’ and dissolving culture-nature dualisms. Hunters’ experiences in living the land afforded children a dwelling position from which...... to grow with the features of the land. Framed this way, ‘nature’ was regarded as part of the social world. I suggest that learning among Arctic hunters is social and twofold. First, we can learn how human-environment relations influence individual life trajectories. Secondly, ‘nature’ as part...

  15. Sharply increased mass loss from glaciers and ice caps in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gardner, Alex S; Moholdt, Geir; Wouters, Bert; Wolken, Gabriel J; Burgess, David O; Sharp, Martin J; Cogley, J Graham; Braun, Carsten; Labine, Claude

    2011-05-19

    Mountain glaciers and ice caps are contributing significantly to present rates of sea level rise and will continue to do so over the next century and beyond. The Canadian Arctic Archipelago, located off the northwestern shore of Greenland, contains one-third of the global volume of land ice outside the ice sheets, but its contribution to sea-level change remains largely unknown. Here we show that the Canadian Arctic Archipelago has recently lost 61 ± 7 gigatonnes per year (Gt yr(-1)) of ice, contributing 0.17 ± 0.02 mm yr(-1) to sea-level rise. Our estimates are of regional mass changes for the ice caps and glaciers of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago referring to the years 2004 to 2009 and are based on three independent approaches: surface mass-budget modelling plus an estimate of ice discharge (SMB+D), repeat satellite laser altimetry (ICESat) and repeat satellite gravimetry (GRACE). All three approaches show consistent and large mass-loss estimates. Between the periods 2004-2006 and 2007-2009, the rate of mass loss sharply increased from 31 ± 8 Gt yr(-1) to 92 ± 12 Gt yr(-1) in direct response to warmer summer temperatures, to which rates of ice loss are highly sensitive (64 ± 14 Gt yr(-1) per 1 K increase). The duration of the study is too short to establish a long-term trend, but for 2007-2009, the increase in the rate of mass loss makes the Canadian Arctic Archipelago the single largest contributor to eustatic sea-level rise outside Greenland and Antarctica.

  16. Ice-dynamic projections of the Greenland ice sheet in response to atmospheric and oceanic warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. J. Fürst

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Continuing global warming will have a strong impact on the Greenland ice sheet in the coming centuries. During the last decade (2000–2010, both increased melt-water runoff and enhanced ice discharge from calving glaciers have contributed 0.6 ± 0.1 mm yr−1 to global sea-level rise, with a relative contribution of 60 and 40% respectively. Here we use a higher-order ice flow model, spun up to present day, to simulate future ice volume changes driven by both atmospheric and oceanic temperature changes. For these projections, the flow model accounts for runoff-induced basal lubrication and ocean warming-induced discharge increase at the marine margins. For a suite of 10 atmosphere and ocean general circulation models and four representative concentration pathway scenarios, the projected sea-level rise between 2000 and 2100 lies in the range of +1.4 to +16.6 cm. For two low emission scenarios, the projections are conducted up to 2300. Ice loss rates are found to abate for the most favourable scenario where the warming peaks in this century, allowing the ice sheet to maintain a geometry close to the present-day state. For the other moderate scenario, loss rates remain at a constant level over 300 years. In any scenario, volume loss is predominantly caused by increased surface melting as the contribution from enhanced ice discharge decreases over time and is self-limited by thinning and retreat of the marine margin, reducing the ice–ocean contact area. As confirmed by other studies, we find that the effect of enhanced basal lubrication on the volume evolution is negligible on centennial timescales. Our projections show that the observed rates of volume change over the last decades cannot simply be extrapolated over the 21st century on account of a different balance of processes causing ice loss over time. Our results also indicate that the largest source of uncertainty arises from the surface mass balance and the underlying climate change

  17. How to Quantify Human-environment Interactions in the Past: A Global Historical Land Use Data Set for the Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein Goldewijk, K.

    2015-12-01

    Land use plays an important role in the climate system. Many ecosystem processes are directly or indirectly climate driven, and together with human driven land use changes, they determine how the land surface will evolve through time. To assess the effects of land cover changes on the climate system, models are required which are capable of simulating interactions between the involved components of the Earth system. Since driving forces for global environmental change differ among regions, a geographically (spatially) explicit modeling approach is called for, so that it can be incorporated in global and regional (climate and/or biophysical) change models in order to enhance our understanding of the underlying processes and thus improving future projections.Some researchers suggest that mankind has shifted from living in the Holocene (~emergence of agriculture) into the Anthropocene (~humans capable of changing the Earth' atmosphere) since the start of the Industrial Revolution. But in the light of the sheer size and magnitude of some historical land use changes (e.g. the Black Plague in the 14th century and the aftermath of the Colombian Exchange in the 16th century), some believe that this point might have occurred earlier in time. There are still many uncertainties and gaps in our knowledge about the importance of land use (change) in the global biogeochemical cycle, and it is crucial that researchers from other disciplines are involved in decreasing the uncertainties.Thus, integrated records of the co-evolving human-environment system over millennia are needed to provide a basis for a deeper understanding of the present and for forecasting the future. This requires the major task of assembling and integrating regional and global historical, archaeological, and paleo-environmental records. Humans cannot predict the future. Here I present a tool for such long term global change studies; it is the latest update (v 3.2) of the History Database of the Global

  18. High Arctic Holocene temperature record from the Agassiz ice cap and Greenland ice sheet evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lecavalier, Benoit S; Fisher, David A; Milne, Glenn A; Vinther, Bo M; Tarasov, Lev; Huybrechts, Philippe; Lacelle, Denis; Main, Brittany; Zheng, James; Bourgeois, Jocelyne; Dyke, Arthur S

    2017-06-06

    We present a revised and extended high Arctic air temperature reconstruction from a single proxy that spans the past ∼12,000 y (up to 2009 CE). Our reconstruction from the Agassiz ice cap (Ellesmere Island, Canada) indicates an earlier and warmer Holocene thermal maximum with early Holocene temperatures that are 4-5 °C warmer compared with a previous reconstruction, and regularly exceed contemporary values for a period of ∼3,000 y. Our results show that air temperatures in this region are now at their warmest in the past 6,800-7,800 y, and that the recent rate of temperature change is unprecedented over the entire Holocene. The warmer early Holocene inferred from the Agassiz ice core leads to an estimated ∼1 km of ice thinning in northwest Greenland during the early Holocene using the Camp Century ice core. Ice modeling results show that this large thinning is consistent with our air temperature reconstruction. The modeling results also demonstrate the broader significance of the enhanced warming, with a retreat of the northern ice margin behind its present position in the mid Holocene and a ∼25% increase in total Greenland ice sheet mass loss (∼1.4 m sea-level equivalent) during the last deglaciation, both of which have implications for interpreting geodetic measurements of land uplift and gravity changes in northern Greenland.

  19. Enhancing Global Land Surface Hydrology Estimates from the NASA MERRA Reanalysis Using Precipitation Observations and Model Parameter Adjustments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reichle, Rolf; Koster, Randal; DeLannoy, Gabrielle; Forman, Barton; Liu, Qing; Mahanama, Sarith; Toure, Ally

    2011-01-01

    The Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) is a state-of-the-art reanalysis that provides. in addition to atmospheric fields. global estimates of soil moisture, latent heat flux. snow. and runoff for J 979-present. This study introduces a supplemental and improved set of land surface hydrological fields ('MERRA-Land') generated by replaying a revised version of the land component of the MERRA system. Specifically. the MERRA-Land estimates benefit from corrections to the precipitation forcing with the Global Precipitation Climatology Project pentad product (version 2.1) and from revised parameters in the rainfall interception model, changes that effectively correct for known limitations in the MERRA land surface meteorological forcings. The skill (defined as the correlation coefficient of the anomaly time series) in land surface hydrological fields from MERRA and MERRA-Land is assessed here against observations and compared to the skill of the state-of-the-art ERA-Interim reanalysis. MERRA-Land and ERA-Interim root zone soil moisture skills (against in situ observations at 85 US stations) are comparable and significantly greater than that of MERRA. Throughout the northern hemisphere, MERRA and MERRA-Land agree reasonably well with in situ snow depth measurements (from 583 stations) and with snow water equivalent from an independent analysis. Runoff skill (against naturalized stream flow observations from 15 basins in the western US) of MERRA and MERRA-Land is typically higher than that of ERA-Interim. With a few exceptions. the MERRA-Land data appear more accurate than the original MERRA estimates and are thus recommended for those interested in using '\\-tERRA output for land surface hydrological studies.

  20. The effect of changing sea ice on the vulnerability of Arctic coasts

    OpenAIRE

    K. R. Barnhart; I. Overeem; R. S. Anderson

    2014-01-01

    Shorefast sea ice prevents the interaction of the land and the ocean in the Arctic winter and influences this interaction in the summer by governing the fetch. In many parts of the Arctic the sea-ice-free season is increasing in duration, and the summertime sea ice extents are decreasing. Sea ice provides a first order control on the vulnerability of Arctic coasts to erosion, inundation, and damage to settlements and infrastructure. We ask how the changing sea ic...

  1. CLARA-SAL: a global 28 yr timeseries of Earth's black-sky surface albedo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Riihelä

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available We present a novel 28 yr dataset of Earth's black-sky surface albedo, derived from AVHRR instruments. The dataset is created using algorithms to separately derive the surface albedo for different land use areas globally. Snow, sea ice, open water and vegetation are all treated independently. The product features corrections for the atmospheric effect in satellite-observed surface radiances, a BRDF correction for the anisotropic reflectance properties of natural surfaces, and a novel topography correction of geolocation and radiometric accuracy of surface reflectance observations over mountainous areas. The dataset is based on a homogenized AVHRR radiance timeseries. The product is validated against quality-controlled in situ observations of clear-sky surface albedo at various BSRN sites around the world. Snow and ice albedo retrieval validation is given particular attention using BSRN sites over Antarctica, Greenland Climate Network stations on the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS, as well as sea ice albedo data from the SHEBA and Tara expeditions. The product quality is found to be comparable to other previous long-term surface albedo datasets from AVHRR.

  2. Sea Ice Summer Camp: Bringing Together Arctic Sea Ice Modelers and Observers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perovich, D. K.; Holland, M. M.

    2016-12-01

    The Arctic sea ice has undergone dramatic change and numerical models project this to continue for the foreseeable future. Understanding the mechanisms behind sea ice loss and its consequences for the larger Arctic and global systems is of critical importance if we are to anticipate and plan for the future. One impediment to progress is a disconnect between the observational and modeling communities. A sea ice summer camp was held in Barrow Alaska from 26 May to 1 June 2016 to overcome this impediment and better integrate the sea ice community. The 25 participants were a mix of modelers and observers from 13 different institutions at career stages from graduate student to senior scientist. The summer camp provided an accelerated program on sea ice observations and models and also fostered future collaborative interdisciplinary activities. Each morning was spent in the classroom with a daily lecture on an aspect of modeling or remote sensing followed by practical exercises. Topics included using models to assess sensitivity, to test hypotheses and to explore sources of uncertainty in future Arctic sea ice loss. The afternoons were spent on the ice making observations. There were four observational activities; albedo observations, ice thickness measurements, ice coring and physical properties, and ice morphology surveys. The last field day consisted of a grand challenge where the group formulated a hypothesis, developed an observational and modeling strategy to test the hypothesis, and then integrated the observations and model results. The impacts of changing sea ice are being felt today in Barrow Alaska. We opened a dialog with Barrow community members to further understand these changes. This included an evening discussion with two Barrow sea ice experts and a community presentation of our work in a public lecture at the Inupiat Heritage Center.

  3. Snowball Earth: Skating on Thin Ice?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberson, A. L.; Stout, A. M.; Pollard, D.; Kasting, J. F.

    2011-12-01

    There is evidence of at least two intervals of widespread glaciation during the late Neoproterozoic (600-800 Myr ago), which are commonly referred to as "Snowball Earth" episodes. The global nature of these events is indicated by the fact that glacial deposits are found at low paleolatitudes during this time. Models of a global glacial event have produced a variety of solutions at low latitudes: thick ice, thin ice, slushball, and open ocean . The latter two models are similar, except that the slushball model has its ice-line at higher latitudes. To be viable, a model has to be able to account for the survival of life through the glaciations and also explain the existence of cap carbonates and other glacial debris deposited at low latitudes. The "thick-ice" model is not viable because kilometers of ice prevent the penetration of light necessary for the photosynthetic biota below. The "slushball" model is also not viable as it does not allow the formation of cap carbonates. The "thin-ice" model has been discussed previously and can account for continuation of photosynthetic life and glacial deposits at low paleolatitudes. The recently proposed "open-ocean" or "Jormungand" model also satisfies these requirements. What is it, though, that causes some models to produce thin ice near the equator and others to have open water there? We examine this question using a zonally symmetric energy balance climate model (EBM) with flowing sea glaciers to determine what parameter ranges produce each type of solution.

  4. The GEWEX LandFlux project: evaluation of model evaporation using tower-based and globally-gridded forcing data

    KAUST Repository

    McCabe, Matthew

    2015-08-24

    Determining the spatial distribution and temporal development of evaporation at regional and global scales is required to improve our understanding of the coupled water and energy cycles and to better monitor any changes in observed trends and variability of linked hydrological processes. With recent international efforts guiding the development of long-term and globally distributed flux estimates, continued product assessments are required to inform upon the selection of suitable model structures and also to establish the appropriateness of these multi-model simulations for global application. In support of the objectives of the GEWEX LandFlux project, four commonly used evaporation models are evaluated against data from tower-based eddy-covariance observations, distributed across a range of biomes and climate zones. The selected schemes include the Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) approach, the Priestley-Taylor Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PT-JPL) model, the Penman-Monteith based Mu model (PM-Mu) and the Global Land Evaporation: the Amsterdam Methodology (GLEAM). Here we seek to examine the fidelity of global evaporation simulations by examining the multi-model response to varying sources of forcing data. To do this, we perform parallel and collocated model simulations using tower-based data together with a global-scale grid-based forcing product. Through quantifying the multi-model response to high-quality tower data, a better understanding of the subsequent model response to coarse-scale globally gridded data that underlies the LandFlux product can be obtained, while also providing a relative evaluation and assessment of model performance.

    Using surface flux observations from forty-five globally distributed eddy-covariance stations as independent metrics of performance, the tower-based analysis indicated that PT-JPL provided the highest overally statistical performance (0.72; 61 W m−2; 0.65), followed closely by GLEAM (0.68; 64 W m

  5. River Export of Plastic from Land to Sea: A Global Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegfried, Max; Gabbert, Silke; Koelmans, Albert A.; Kroeze, Carolien; Löhr, Ansje; Verburg, Charlotte

    2016-04-01

    Plastic is increasingly considered a serious cause of water pollution. It is a threat to aquatic ecosystems, including rivers, coastal waters and oceans. Rivers transport considerable amounts of plastic from land to sea. The quantity and its main sources, however, are not well known. Assessing the amount of macro- and microplastic transport from river to sea is, therefore, important for understanding the dimension and the patterns of plastic pollution of aquatic ecosystems. In addition, it is crucial for assessing short- and long-term impacts caused by plastic pollution. Here we present a global modelling approach to quantify river export of plastic from land to sea. Our approach accounts for different types of plastic, including both macro- and micro-plastics. Moreover, we distinguish point sources and diffuse sources of plastic in rivers. Our modelling approach is inspired by global nutrient models, which include more than 6000 river basins. In this paper, we will present our modelling approach, as well as first model results for micro-plastic pollution in European rivers. Important sources of micro-plastics include personal care products, laundry, household dust and car tyre wear. We combine information on these sources with information on sewage management, and plastic retention during river transport for the largest European rivers. Our modelling approach may help to better understand and prevent water pollution by plastic , and at the same time serves as 'proof of concept' for future application on global scale.

  6. Observations of Recent Arctic Sea Ice Volume Loss and Its Impact on Ocean-Atmosphere Energy Exchange and Ice Production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurtz, N. T.; Markus, T.; Farrell, S. L.; Worthen, D. L.; Boisvert, L. N.

    2011-01-01

    Using recently developed techniques we estimate snow and sea ice thickness distributions for the Arctic basin through the combination of freeboard data from the Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) and a snow depth model. These data are used with meteorological data and a thermodynamic sea ice model to calculate ocean-atmosphere heat exchange and ice volume production during the 2003-2008 fall and winter seasons. The calculated heat fluxes and ice growth rates are in agreement with previous observations over multiyear ice. In this study, we calculate heat fluxes and ice growth rates for the full distribution of ice thicknesses covering the Arctic basin and determine the impact of ice thickness change on the calculated values. Thinning of the sea ice is observed which greatly increases the 2005-2007 fall period ocean-atmosphere heat fluxes compared to those observed in 2003. Although there was also a decline in sea ice thickness for the winter periods, the winter time heat flux was found to be less impacted by the observed changes in ice thickness. A large increase in the net Arctic ocean-atmosphere heat output is also observed in the fall periods due to changes in the areal coverage of sea ice. The anomalously low sea ice coverage in 2007 led to a net ocean-atmosphere heat output approximately 3 times greater than was observed in previous years and suggests that sea ice losses are now playing a role in increasing surface air temperatures in the Arctic.

  7. Demography and behavior of polar bears summering on land in Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peacock, Lily

    2014-01-01

    Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the southern Beaufort Sea population (SB) are spending increased time on the coastal North Slope of Alaska between July and October (Gleason and Rode 2010). The duration spent on land by polar bears, satellite collared on the sea-ice in the spring, during the summer and fall has also increased (USGS, unpublished data; Figure 1). This change in polar bear ecology has relevance for human-bear interactions, subsistence harvest, prevalence of defense kills, and disturbance associated with existing land-based development [e.g., National Petroleum Reserve of Alaska (NPRA), Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR)], Native Alaskan communities, recreation (ANWR) and tourism (e.g., bear viewing in Kaktovik, AK). These activities have the potential to impact, in new ways, the status of the entire SB population. Concomitantly, the change in polar bear ecology will impact these human activities, and a base-line characterization of this phenomenon can better inform mitigation (e.g., industry permitting under the Endangered Species Act and Marine Mammal Protection Act). In this study we aim to characterize the demography, habitat-use, and aspects of foraging ecology and health of polar bears spending fall on land. The SB population is characterized by a divergent-sea ice ecology, where polar bears typically spend most of the year on the sea-ice, even as the pack ice retreats northward, away from the coast, to its minimal extent in September (Amstrup et al. 2008; Durner et al. 2009). From 2000 – 2005, using coastal aerial surveys, Schliebe et al. (2008) observed between 3.7 and 8% of polar bears from SB (~ 60 – 120 of 1526, Regher et al. 2006) on land during the autumn. Sighting probability was not estimated in these surveys, and therefore the numbers represent minimum numbers of bears on land. Our analysis of USGS data suggest an annual average of 15% (± 3%, SE) of polar bears satellite-tagged on the spring-time sea ice (total n = 18 of 124

  8. MODIS/Terra Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity Daily L3 Global 1km SIN Grid Day V006

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — MODIS/Terra Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity Daily L3 Global 1km SIN Grid Day (MOD21A1D.006). A new suite of MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) and...

  9. MODIS/Aqua Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity 8-Day L3 Global 1km SIN Grid V006

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — MODIS/Aqua Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity 8-Day L3 Global 1km SIN Grid (MYD21A2.006). A new suite of MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Emissivity...

  10. MODIS/Aqua Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity Daily L3 Global 1km SIN Grid Day V006

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — MODIS/Aqua Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity Daily L3 Global 1km SIN Grid Day (MYD21A1D.006). A new suite of MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) and...

  11. MODIS/Terra Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity 8-Day L3 Global 1km SIN Grid V006

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — MODIS/Terra Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity 8-Day L3 Global 1km SIN Grid (MOD21A2.006). A new suite of MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Emissivity...

  12. MODIS/Terra Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity Daily L3 Global 1km SIN Grid Night V006

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — MODIS/Terra Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity Daily L3 Global 1km SIN Grid Night (MOD21A1N.006). A new suite of MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) and...

  13. MODIS/Aqua Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity Daily L3 Global 1km SIN Grid Night V006

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — MODIS/Aqua Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity Daily L3 Global 1km SIN Grid Night (MYD21A1N.006). A new suite of MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) and...

  14. Ecology of southern ocean pack ice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brierley, Andrew S; Thomas, David N

    2002-01-01

    aggregating there. As a result, much of the Southern Ocean pelagic whaling was concentrated at the edge of the marginal ice zone. The extent and duration of sea ice fluctuate periodically under the influence of global climatic phenomena including the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Life cycles of some associated species may reflect this periodicity. With evidence for climatic warming in some regions of Antarctica, there is concern that ecosystem change may be induced by changes in sea-ice extent. The relative abundance of krill and salps appears to change interannually with sea-ice extent, and in warm years, when salps proliferate, krill are scarce and dependent predators suffer severely. Further research on the Southern Ocean sea-ice system is required, not only to further our basic understanding of the ecology, but also to provide ecosystem managers with the information necessary for the development of strategies in response to short- and medium-term environmental changes in Antarctica. Technological advances are delivering new sampling platforms such as autonomous underwater vehicles that are improving vastly our ability to sample the Antarctic under sea-ice environment. Data from such platforms will enhance greatly our understanding of the globally important Southern Ocean sea-ice ecosystem.

  15. CryoSat Ice Processor: Known Processor Anomalies and Potential Future Product Evolutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mannan, R.; Webb, E.; Hall, A.; Bouffard, J.; Femenias, P.; Parrinello, T.; Bouffard, J.; Brockley, D.; Baker, S.; Scagliola, M.; Urien, S.

    2016-08-01

    Launched in 2010, CryoSat was designed to measure changes in polar sea ice thickness and ice sheet elevation. To reach this goal the CryoSat data products have to meet the highest performance standards and are subjected to a continual cycle of improvement achieved through upgrades to the Instrument Processing Facilities (IPFs). Following the switch to the Baseline-C Ice IPFs there are already planned evolutions for the next processing Baseline, based on recommendations from the Scientific Community, Expert Support Laboratory (ESL), Quality Control (QC) Centres and Validation campaigns. Some of the proposed evolutions, to be discussed with the scientific community, include the activation of freeboard computation in SARin mode, the potential operation of SARin mode over flat-to-slope transitory land ice areas, further tuning of the land ice retracker, the switch to NetCDF format and the resolution of anomalies arising in Baseline-C. This paper describes some of the anomalies known to affect Baseline-C in addition to potential evolutions that are planned and foreseen for Baseline-D.

  16. Arctic climate response to forcing from light-absorbing particles in snow and sea ice in CESM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Goldenson

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The presence of light-absorbing aerosol particles deposited on arctic snow and sea ice influences the surface albedo, causing greater shortwave absorption, warming, and loss of snow and sea ice, lowering the albedo further. The Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1 now includes the radiative effects of light-absorbing particles in snow on land and sea ice and in sea ice itself. We investigate the model response to the deposition of black carbon and dust to both snow and sea ice. For these purposes we employ a slab ocean version of CESM1, using the Community Atmosphere Model version 4 (CAM4, run to equilibrium for year 2000 levels of CO2 and fixed aerosol deposition. We construct experiments with and without aerosol deposition, with dust or black carbon deposition alone, and with varying quantities of black carbon and dust to approximate year 1850 and 2000 deposition fluxes. The year 2000 deposition fluxes of both dust and black carbon cause 1–2 °C of surface warming over large areas of the Arctic Ocean and sub-Arctic seas in autumn and winter and in patches of Northern land in every season. Atmospheric circulation changes are a key component of the surface-warming pattern. Arctic sea ice thins by on average about 30 cm. Simulations with year 1850 aerosol deposition are not substantially different from those with year 2000 deposition, given constant levels of CO2. The climatic impact of particulate impurities deposited over land exceeds that of particles deposited over sea ice. Even the surface warming over the sea ice and sea ice thinning depends more upon light-absorbing particles deposited over land. For CO2 doubled relative to year 2000 levels, the climate impact of particulate impurities in snow and sea ice is substantially lower than for the year 2000 equilibrium simulation.

  17. Arctic Tides from GPS on sea-ice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kildegaard Rose, Stine; Skourup, Henriette; Forsberg, René

    2013-01-01

    The presence of sea-ice in the Arctic Ocean plays a significant role in the Arctic climate. Sea-ice dampens the ocean tide amplitude with the result that global tidal models perform less accurately in the polar regions. This paper presents, a kinematic processing of global positioning system (GPS....... The results show coherence between the GPS buoy measurements, and the tide model. Furthermore, we have proved that the reference ellipsoid of WGS84, can be interpolated to the tidal defined zero level by applying geophysical corrections to the GPS data....

  18. Insights into Spatial Sensitivities of Ice Mass Response to Environmental Change from the SeaRISE Ice Sheet Modeling Project I: Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowicki, Sophie; Bindschadler, Robert A.; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Aschwanden, Andy; Bueler, Ed; Choi, Hyengu; Fastook, Jim; Granzow, Glen; Greve, Ralf; Gutowski, Gail; hide

    2013-01-01

    Atmospheric, oceanic, and subglacial forcing scenarios from the Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) project are applied to six three-dimensional thermomechanical ice-sheet models to assess Antarctic ice sheet sensitivity over a 500 year timescale and to inform future modeling and field studies. Results indicate (i) growth with warming, except within low-latitude basins (where inland thickening is outpaced by marginal thinning); (ii) mass loss with enhanced sliding (with basins dominated by high driving stresses affected more than basins with low-surface-slope streaming ice); and (iii) mass loss with enhanced ice shelf melting (with changes in West Antarctica dominating the signal due to its marine setting and extensive ice shelves; cf. minimal impact in the Terre Adelie, George V, Oates, and Victoria Land region of East Antarctica). Ice loss due to dynamic changes associated with enhanced sliding and/or sub-shelf melting exceeds the gain due to increased precipitation. Furthermore, differences in results between and within basins as well as the controlling impact of sub-shelf melting on ice dynamics highlight the need for improved understanding of basal conditions, grounding-zone processes, ocean-ice interactions, and the numerical representation of all three.

  19. Understanding the Concept of Fit-For-Purpose Land Administration in Support of the Post 2015 Global Agenda

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Enemark, Stig

    2015-01-01

    on top-end technical solutions and high accuracy surveys. Of course, such flexibility allows for land administration systems to be incrementally improved over time. This paper unfolds the Fit-For-Purpose concept by analysing the three core components: • The spatial framework (large scale land parcel......This paper argues that the fit-for-purpose approach to building land administration systems in less developed countries will enable provision of the basic administrative frameworks for managing the people to land relationship that is fundamental for meeting the upcoming post 2015 global agenda....... The term “Fit-For-Purpose Land Administration” indicates that the approach used for building land administration systems in less developed countries should be flexible and focused on serving the purpose of the systems (such as providing security of tenure and control of land use) rather than focusing...

  20. Deriving global parameter estimates for the Noah land surface model using FLUXNET and machine learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaney, Nathaniel W.; Herman, Jonathan D.; Ek, Michael B.; Wood, Eric F.

    2016-11-01

    With their origins in numerical weather prediction and climate modeling, land surface models aim to accurately partition the surface energy balance. An overlooked challenge in these schemes is the role of model parameter uncertainty, particularly at unmonitored sites. This study provides global parameter estimates for the Noah land surface model using 85 eddy covariance sites in the global FLUXNET network. The at-site parameters are first calibrated using a Latin Hypercube-based ensemble of the most sensitive parameters, determined by the Sobol method, to be the minimum stomatal resistance (rs,min), the Zilitinkevich empirical constant (Czil), and the bare soil evaporation exponent (fxexp). Calibration leads to an increase in the mean Kling-Gupta Efficiency performance metric from 0.54 to 0.71. These calibrated parameter sets are then related to local environmental characteristics using the Extra-Trees machine learning algorithm. The fitted Extra-Trees model is used to map the optimal parameter sets over the globe at a 5 km spatial resolution. The leave-one-out cross validation of the mapped parameters using the Noah land surface model suggests that there is the potential to skillfully relate calibrated model parameter sets to local environmental characteristics. The results demonstrate the potential to use FLUXNET to tune the parameterizations of surface fluxes in land surface models and to provide improved parameter estimates over the globe.

  1. Recent ice cap snowmelt in Russian High Arctic and anti-correlation with late summer sea ice extent

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao, Meng; Ramage, Joan; Semmens, Kathryn; Obleitner, Friedrich

    2014-01-01

    Glacier surface melt dynamics throughout Novaya Zemlya (NovZ) and Severnaya Zemlya (SevZ) serve as a good indicator of ice mass ablation and regional climate change in the Russian High Arctic. Here we report trends of surface melt onset date (MOD) and total melt days (TMD) by combining multiple resolution-enhanced active and passive microwave satellite datasets and analyze the TMD correlations with local temperature and regional sea ice extent. The glacier surface snowpack on SevZ melted significantly earlier (−7.3 days/decade) from 1992 to 2012 and significantly longer (7.7 days/decade) from 1995 to 2011. NovZ experienced large interannual variability in MOD, but its annual mean TMD increased. The snowpack melt on NovZ is more sensitive to temperature fluctuations than SevZ in recent decades. After ruling out the regional temperature influence using partial correlation analysis, the TMD on both archipelagoes is statistically anti-correlated with regional late summer sea ice extent, linking land ice snowmelt dynamics to regional sea ice extent variations. (letter)

  2. Geology of the Wilkes land sub-basin and stability of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet: Insights from rock magnetism at IODP Site U1361

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tauxe, L.; Sugisaki, S.; Jiménez-Espejo, F.; Escutia, C.; Cook, C. P.; van de Flierdt, T.; Iwai, M.

    2015-02-01

    IODP Expedition 318 drilled Site U1361 on the continental rise offshore of Adélie Land and the Wilkes subglacial basin. The objective was to reconstruct the stability of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) during Neogene warm periods, such as the late Miocene and the early Pliocene. The sedimentary record tells a complex story of compaction, and erosion (thus hiatuses). Teasing out the paleoenvironmental implications is essential for understanding the evolution of the EAIS. Anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) is sensitive to differential compaction and other rock magnetic parameters like isothermal remanence and anhysteretic remanence are very sensitive to changes in the terrestrial source region. In general, highly anisotropic layers correspond with laminated clay-rich units, while more isotropic layers are bioturbated and have less clay. Layers enriched in diatoms are associated with the latter, which also have higher Ba/Al ratios consistent with higher productivity. Higher anisotropy layers have lower porosity and moisture contents and have fine grained magnetic mineralogy dominated by maghemite, the more oxidized form of iron oxide, while the lower anisotropy layers have magnetic mineralogies dominated by magnetite. The different magnetic mineralogies support the suggestion based on isotopic signatures by Cook et al. (2013) of different source regions during low productivity (cooler) and high productivity (warmer) times. These two facies were tied to the coastal outcrops of the Lower Paleozoic granitic terranes and the Ferrar Large Igneous Province in the more inland Wilkes Subglacial Basin respectively. Here we present evidence for a third geological unit, one eroded at the boundaries between the high and low clay zone with a "hard" (mostly hematite) dominated magnetic mineralogy. This unit likely outcrops in the Wilkes subglacial basin and could be hydrothermally altered Beacon sandstone similar to that detected by Craw and Findlay (1984) in Taylor

  3. How Could Agricultural Land Systems Contribute to Raise Food Production Under Global Change?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WU Wen-bin; YU Qiang-yi; Verburg H Peter; YOU Liang-zhi; YANG Peng; TANG Hua-jun

    2014-01-01

    To feed the increasing world population, more food needs to be produced from agricultural land systems. Solutions to produce more food with fewer resources while minimizing adverse environmental and ecological consequences require sustainable agricultural land use practices as supplementary to advanced biotechnology and agronomy. This review paper, from a land system perspective, systematically proposed and analyzed three interactive strategies that could possibly raise future food production under global change. By reviewing the current literatures, we suggest that cropland expansion is less possible amid iferce land competition, and it is likely to do less in increasing food production. Moreover, properly allocating crops in space and time is a practical way to ensure food production. Climate change, dietary shifts, and other socio-economic drivers, which would shape the demand and supply side of food systems, should be taken into consideration during the decision-making on rational land management in respect of sustainable crop choice and allocation. And ifnally, crop-speciifc agricultural intensiifcation would play a bigger role in raising future food production either by increasing the yield per unit area of individual crops or by increasing the number of crops sown on a particular area of land. Yet, only when it is done sustainably is this a much more effective strategy to maximize food production by closing yield and harvest gaps.

  4. Test Results of an F/A-18 Automatic Carrier Landing Using Shipboard Relative Global Positioning System

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Sousa, Paul

    2003-01-01

    Under the U.S. Department of Defense's Joint Precision Approach and Landing System program, the Navy is responsible for developing the shipboard coreponent, termed Shipboard Relative Global Positioning System (SRGPS...

  5. Mass budget of Queen Elizabeth Islands glaciers and ice caps, Canada, from 1992 to present

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millan, R.; Rignot, E. J.; Mouginot, J.

    2015-12-01

    Recent studies indicate to say that the Canadian Artic Archipelago's mass loss has increased in recent years. However the role of ice dynamics changes in this area is not well known. In this study, we present a comprehensive velocity mapping of the CAA using ALOS/PALSAR, RADARSAT-1, ERS1 and Landsat data between 1992 and 2015. Glaciers speed are calculated using a speckle and feature tracking algorithm.The results reveals that three large marine-terminating glaciers have accelerated significantly after 2010, while most others have slowed down or retreated to a sill to become similar to land-terminating glaciers. By combining the velocities of these glaciers with ice thickness measurements from NASA's Operation IceBridge, we calculate their ice discharge. The fluxes of these glaciers increased significantly since 2000 with a marked increase after 2011. The comparison of ice discharge with the surface mass balance from RACMO-2, shows that these glaciers came out of balance after 2011, which is also a time period where their discharge almost doubled. The analysis of RACMO-2 reveals an increase in runoff between 1970's and today and a precipitation with no significant trend. We digitalize the calving front positions of the glaciers and show an increasing rate retreat since 1976. We conclude that global pattern of velocity changes shows that the mass losses due to surface mass balance will likely going to raise in the coming years and that ice discharge will have a smaller part in the contribution of the CAA to sea level rise.

  6. Regular network model for the sea ice-albedo feedback in the Arctic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller-Stoffels, Marc; Wackerbauer, Renate

    2011-03-01

    The Arctic Ocean and sea ice form a feedback system that plays an important role in the global climate. The complexity of highly parameterized global circulation (climate) models makes it very difficult to assess feedback processes in climate without the concurrent use of simple models where the physics is understood. We introduce a two-dimensional energy-based regular network model to investigate feedback processes in an Arctic ice-ocean layer. The model includes the nonlinear aspect of the ice-water phase transition, a nonlinear diffusive energy transport within a heterogeneous ice-ocean lattice, and spatiotemporal atmospheric and oceanic forcing at the surfaces. First results for a horizontally homogeneous ice-ocean layer show bistability and related hysteresis between perennial ice and perennial open water for varying atmospheric heat influx. Seasonal ice cover exists as a transient phenomenon. We also find that ocean heat fluxes are more efficient than atmospheric heat fluxes to melt Arctic sea ice.

  7. Global Land Use Regression Model for Nitrogen Dioxide Air Pollution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larkin, Andrew; Geddes, Jeffrey A; Martin, Randall V; Xiao, Qingyang; Liu, Yang; Marshall, Julian D; Brauer, Michael; Hystad, Perry

    2017-06-20

    Nitrogen dioxide is a common air pollutant with growing evidence of health impacts independent of other common pollutants such as ozone and particulate matter. However, the worldwide distribution of NO 2 exposure and associated impacts on health is still largely uncertain. To advance global exposure estimates we created a global nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) land use regression model for 2011 using annual measurements from 5,220 air monitors in 58 countries. The model captured 54% of global NO 2 variation, with a mean absolute error of 3.7 ppb. Regional performance varied from R 2 = 0.42 (Africa) to 0.67 (South America). Repeated 10% cross-validation using bootstrap sampling (n = 10,000) demonstrated a robust performance with respect to air monitor sampling in North America, Europe, and Asia (adjusted R 2 within 2%) but not for Africa and Oceania (adjusted R 2 within 11%) where NO 2 monitoring data are sparse. The final model included 10 variables that captured both between and within-city spatial gradients in NO 2 concentrations. Variable contributions differed between continental regions, but major roads within 100 m and satellite-derived NO 2 were consistently the strongest predictors. The resulting model can be used for global risk assessments and health studies, particularly in countries without existing NO 2 monitoring data or models.

  8. Greenland ice sheet mass balance: a review

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khan, Shfaqat Abbas; Aschwanden, Andy; Bjørk, Anders A.

    2015-01-01

    Over the past quarter of a century the Arctic has warmed more than any other region on Earth, causing a profound impact on the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and its contribution to the rise in global sea level. The loss of ice can be partitioned into processes related to surface mass balance...

  9. The impact of German biogas production on European and global agricultural markets, land use and the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Britz, Wolfgang; Delzeit, Ruth

    2013-01-01

    As part of its climate policy, Germany promotes the production of biogas via its so-called Renewable-Energy-Act (EEG). The resulting boost in biogas output went along with a significant increase in production of green maize, the dominant feedstock. Existing studies of the EEG have analysed its impacts on German agriculture without considering market feedback. We thus expand existing quantitative analysis by also considering impacts on European and global agricultural markets, land use and the environment by combining a detailed location model for biogas plants, the Regionalised Location Information System-Maize (ReSi-M2012), with a global Partial Equilibrium model for agriculture, the Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact (CAPRI) model. Our results indicate that the German biogas production is large enough to have sizeable impacts on global agricultural markets in prices and quantities, causing significant land use change outside of Germany. While profits in the agricultural sector increase, food consumer face higher prices, and subsidies for biogas production are passed on to electricity consumers. The German biogas program, as long as it is almost entirely based on non-waste feedstocks, is probably not a promising avenue towards a GHG-saving renewable energy production, but a rather expensive one. - Highlights: • Recent changes to that program decrease green maize use but increase land demands. • The program could raise EU prices for cereals by 3%. • Agricultural land use expansion outside of the EU estimated at 1 Mio ha

  10. Review: Lorenzo Cotula, The Great African Land Grab?: Agricultural Investments and the Global Food System (2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kerstin Nolte

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Review of the monograph:Lorenzo Cotula, The Great African Land Grab?: Agricultural Investments and the Global Food System, London, New York: Zed Books, 2013, ISBN 9781780324203, 248 pages

  11. Global guidance on environmental life cycle impact assessment indicators: impacts of climate change, fine particulate matter formation, water consumption and land use

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jolliet, Olivier; Antón, Assumpció; Boulay, Anne-Marie

    2018-01-01

    of water consumption on human health assesses the DALYs from malnutrition caused by lack of water for irrigated food production. Land use impacts: CFs representing global potential species loss from land use are proposed as interim recommendation suitable to assess biodiversity loss due to land use......Purpose: Guidance is needed on best-suited indicators to quantify and monitor the man-made impacts on human health, biodiversity and resources. Therefore, the UNEP-SETAC Life Cycle Initiative initiated a global consensus process to agree on an updated overall life cycle impact assessment (LCIA...... are recommended: (a) The global warming potential 100 years (GWP 100) represents shorter term impacts associated with rate of change and adaptation capacity, and (b) the global temperature change potential 100 years (GTP 100) characterizes the century-scale long term impacts, both including climate-carbon cycle...

  12. A Meteorological Experiment in the Melting Zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oerlemans, J.; Vugts, H.F.

    1993-01-01

    Preliminary results are described from a glaciometeorological experiment carried out in the margin (melting zone) of the Greenland ice sheet in the summers of 1990 and 1991. This work was initiated within the framework of a Dutch research program on land ice and sea level change. Seven

  13. Using isotopes to improve impact and hydrological predictions of land-surface schemes in global climate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McGuffie, K.; Henderson-Sellers, A.

    2002-01-01

    Global climate model (GCM) predictions of the impact of large-scale land-use change date back to 1984 as do the earliest isotopic studies of large-basin hydrology. Despite this coincidence in interest and geography, with both papers focussed on the Amazon, there have been few studies that have tried to exploit isotopic information with the goal of improving climate model simulations of the land-surface. In this paper we analyze isotopic results from the IAEA global data base specifically with the goal of identifying signatures of potential value for improving global and regional climate model simulations of the land-surface. Evaluation of climate model predictions of the impacts of deforestation of the Amazon has been shown to be of significance by recent results which indicate impacts occurring distant from the Amazon i.e. tele-connections causing climate change elsewhere around the globe. It is suggested that these could be similar in magnitude and extent to the global impacts of ENSO events. Validation of GCM predictions associated with Amazonian deforestation are increasingly urgently required because of the additional effects of other aspects of climate change, particularly synergies occurring between forest removal and greenhouse gas increases, especially CO 2 . Here we examine three decades distributions of deuterium excess across the Amazon and use the results to evaluate the relative importance of the fractionating (partial evaporation) and non-fractionating (transpiration) processes. These results illuminate GCM scenarios of importance to the regional climate and hydrology: (i) the possible impact of increased stomatal resistance in the rainforest caused by higher levels of atmospheric CO2 [4]; and (ii) the consequences of the combined effects of deforestation and global warming on the regions climate and hydrology

  14. Correlated declines in Pacific arctic snow and sea ice cover

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, Robert P.; Douglas, David C.; Belchansky, Gennady I.; Drobot, Sheldon

    2005-01-01

    Simulations of future climate suggest that global warming will reduce Arctic snow and ice cover, resulting in decreased surface albedo (reflectivity). Lowering of the surface albedo leads to further warming by increasing solar absorption at the surface. This phenomenon is referred to as “temperature–albedo feedback.” Anticipation of such a feedback is one reason why scientists look to the Arctic for early indications of global warming. Much of the Arctic has warmed significantly. Northern Hemisphere snow cover has decreased, and sea ice has diminished in area and thickness. As reported in the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment in 2004, the trends are considered to be outside the range of natural variability, implicating global warming as an underlying cause. Changing climatic conditions in the high northern latitudes have influenced biogeochemical cycles on a broad scale. Warming has already affected the sea ice, the tundra, the plants, the animals, and the indigenous populations that depend on them. Changing annual cycles of snow and sea ice also affect sources and sinks of important greenhouse gases (such as carbon dioxide and methane), further complicating feedbacks involving the global budgets of these important constituents. For instance, thawing permafrost increases the extent of tundra wetlands and lakes, releasing greater amounts of methane into the atmosphere. Variable sea ice cover may affect the hemispheric carbon budget by altering the ocean–atmosphere exchange of carbon dioxide. There is growing concern that amplification of global warming in the Arctic will have far-reaching effects on lower latitude climate through these feedback mechanisms. Despite the diverse and convincing observational evidence that the Arctic environment is changing, it remains unclear whether these changes are anthropogenically forced or result from natural variations of the climate system. A better understanding of what controls the seasonal distributions of snow and ice

  15. ICESat's First Year of Measurements Over the Polar Ice Sheets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shuman, C. A.

    2004-05-01

    NASA's Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) mission was developed to measure changes in elevation of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Its primary mission goal is to significantly refine estimates of polar ice sheet mass balance. Obtaining precise, spatially dense, ice sheet elevations through time is the first step towards this goal. ICESat data will then enable study of associations between observed ice changes and dynamic or climatic forcing factors, and thus enable improved estimation of the present and future contributions of the ice sheets to global sea level rise. ICESat was launched on January 12, 2003 and acquired science data from February 20th to March 29th with the first of the three lasers of the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS). Data acquisition with the second laser began on September 25th and continued until November 18th, 2003. For one-year change detection, the second laser is scheduled for operation from approximately February 17th to March 20th, 2004. Additional operational periods will be selected to 1) enable periodic measurements through the year, and 2) to support of other NASA Earth Science Enterprise missions and activities. To obtain these precise ice sheet elevations, GLAS has a 1064 nm wavelength laser operating at 40 Hz with a designed range precision of about 10 cm. The laser footprints are about 70 m in diameter on the Earth's surface and are spaced every 172 m along-track. The on-board GPS receiver enables radial orbit determinations to an accuracy better than 5 cm. The star-tracking attitude-determination system will enable laser footprints to be located to 6 m horizontally when attitude calibration is completed. The orbital altitude averages 600 km at an inclination of 94 degrees with coverage extending from 86 degrees N and S latitude. The spacecraft attitude can be controlled to point the laser beam to within 50 m of surface reference tracks over the ice sheets and to point off-nadir up to 5 degrees to

  16. A network model for electrical transport in sea ice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu, J.; Golden, K.M.; Gully, A.; Sampson, C.

    2010-01-01

    Monitoring the thickness of sea ice is an important tool in assessing the impact of global warming on Earth's polar regions, and most methods of measuring ice thickness depend on detailed knowledge of its electrical properties. We develop a network model for the electrical conductivity of sea ice, which incorporates statistical measurements of the brine microstructure. The numerical simulations are in close agreement with direct measurements we made in Antarctica on the vertical conductivity of first year sea ice.

  17. Freshwater fluxes into the subpolar North Atlantic from secular trends in Arctic land ice mass balance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bamber, J. L.; Enderlin, E. M.; Howat, I. M.; Wouters, B.; van den Broeke, M.

    2015-12-01

    Freshwater fluxes (FWF) from river runoff and precipitation minus evaporation for the pan Arctic seas are relatively well documented and prescribed in ocean GCMs. Fluxes from Greenland and Arctic glaciers and ice caps on the other hand are generally ignored, despite their potential impacts on ocean circulation and marine biology and growing evidence for changes to the hydrography of parts of the subpolar North Atlantic. In a previous study we determined the FWF from Greenland for the period 1958-2010 using a combination of observations and regional climate modeling. Here, we update the analysis with data from new satellite observations to extend the record both in space and time. The new FWF estimates cover the period 1958-2014 and include the Canadian, Russian and Norwegian Arctic (Svalbard) in addition to the contributions from Greenland. We combine satellite altimetry (including CryoSat 2) with grounding line flux data, regional climate modeling of surface mass balance and gravimetry to produce consistent estimates of solid ice and liquid FWF into the Arctic and North Atlantic Oceans. The total cumulative FWF anomaly from land ice mass loss started to increase significantly in the mid 1990s and now exceeds 5000 km^3, a value that is about half of the Great Salinity Anomaly of the 1970s. The majority of the anomaly is entering two key areas of deep water overturning in the Labrador and Irminger Seas, at a rate that has been increasing steadily over the last ~20 years. Since the mid 2000s, however, the Canadian Arctic archipelago has been making a significant contribution to the FW anomaly entering Baffin Bay. Tracer experiments with eddy-permitting ocean GCMs suggest that the FW input from southern Greenland and the Canadian Arctic should accumulate in Baffin Bay with the potential to affect geostrophic circulation, stratification in the region and possibly the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. We also examine the trajectory of

  18. Ice dynamic response to two modes of surface lake drainage on the Greenland ice sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tedesco, Marco; Alexander, Patrick; Willis, Ian C; Banwell, Alison F; Arnold, Neil S; Hoffman, Matthew J

    2013-01-01

    Supraglacial lake drainage on the Greenland ice sheet opens surface-to-bed connections, reduces basal friction, and temporarily increases ice flow velocities by up to an order of magnitude. Existing field-based observations of lake drainages and their impact on ice dynamics are limited, and focus on one specific draining mechanism. Here, we report and analyse global positioning system measurements of ice velocity and elevation made at five locations surrounding two lakes that drained by different mechanisms and produced different dynamic responses. For the lake that drained slowly (>24 h) by overtopping its basin, delivering water via a channel to a pre-existing moulin, speedup and uplift were less than half those associated with a lake that drained rapidly (∼2 h) through hydrofracturing and the creation of new moulins in the lake bottom. Our results suggest that the mode and associated rate of lake drainage govern the impact on ice dynamics. (letter)

  19. Morphology of bottom surfaces of glacier ice tongues in the East Antarctic region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bianchi, C.; Chiappini, M.; Zirizzotti, A.; Zuccheretti, E. [Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome (Italy); Tabacco, I. E. [Milan Univ., Milan (Italy). Sez. Geofisica; Passerini, A. [Milan Univ. Bicocca, Milan (Italy). Dipt. di Fisica

    2001-02-01

    During three Antarctic summer campaigns (1995/97/99) Radio Echo Sounding (RES) system data from some glacier ice tongues in the East Antarctic regions between Victoria Land and George 5. Land were collected. The morphology and structure of the bottom surfaces deduced from the electromagnetic interpretation of echo signal were observed. The bottom surfaces at the ice/water interface show either irregular or flat contours or both. Some ice tongues are nearly perfectly flat, others show clear signs of irregularities while three of them have good regular spaced rippled bottom surfaces. The latter structures are well-evident in the longitudinal traverse of the tongues, whereas the transversal paths do not show the same features. This particular shape of the bottom surfaces related to the ablation process and detachment mechanism could be interesting especially to determine some physical characteristics and the possible fracture points of the ice tongues.

  20. Morphology of bottom surfaces of glacier ice tongues in the East Antarctic region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Zuccheretti

    2001-06-01

    Full Text Available During three Antarctic summer campaigns (1995/97/99 Radio Echo Sounding (RES system data from some glacier ice tongues in the East Antarctic regions between Victoria Land and George V Land were collected. The morphology and structure of the bottom surfaces deduced from the electromagnetic interpretation of echo signal were observed. The bottom surfaces at the ice/water interface show either irregular or flat contours or both. Some ice tongues are nearly perfectly flat, others show clear signs of irregularities while three of them have good regular spaced rippled bottom surfaces. The latter structures are well-evident in the longitudinal traverse of the tongues, whereas the transversal paths do not show the same features. This particular shape of the bottom surfaces related to the ablation process and detachment mechanism could be interesting especially to determine some physical characteristics and the possible fracture points of the ice tongues.

  1. New constraints on the structure and dynamics of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet from the joint IPY/Ice Bridge ICECAP aerogeophysical project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blankenship, D. D.; Young, D. A.; Siegert, M. J.; van Ommen, T. D.; Roberts, J. L.; Wright, A.; Warner, R. C.; Holt, J. W.; Young, N. W.; Le Meur, E.; Legresy, B.; Cavitte, M.; Icecap Team

    2010-12-01

    Ice within marine basins of East Antarctica, and their outlets, represent the ultimate limit on sea level change. The region of East Antarctica between the Ross Sea and Wilkes Land hosts a number of major basin, but has been poorly understood. Long range aerogeophysics from US, Australian and French stations, with significant British and IceBridge support, has, under the banner of the ICECAP project, greatly improved our knowledge of ice thickness, surface elevation, and crustal structure of the Wilkes and Aurora Subglacial Basins, as well as the Totten Glacier, Cook Ice Shelf, and Byrd Glacier. We will discuss the evolution of the Wilkes and Aurora Subglacial Basins, new constraints on the geometry of the major outlet glaciers, as well as our results from surface elevation change measurements over dynamic regions of the ice sheet. We will discuss the implications of our data for the presence of mid Pleistocene ice in central East Antarctica. Future directions for ICECAP will be discussed.

  2. Deglaciation of the Eurasian ice sheet complex

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patton, Henry; Hubbard, Alun; Andreassen, Karin; Auriac, Amandine; Whitehouse, Pippa L.; Stroeven, Arjen P.; Shackleton, Calvin; Winsborrow, Monica; Heyman, Jakob; Hall, Adrian M.

    2017-08-01

    The Eurasian ice sheet complex (EISC) was the third largest ice mass during the Last Glacial Maximum with a span of over 4500 km and responsible for around 20 m of eustatic sea-level lowering. Whilst recent terrestrial and marine empirical insights have improved understanding of the chronology, pattern and rates of retreat of this vast ice sheet, a concerted attempt to model the deglaciation of the EISC honouring these new constraints is conspicuously lacking. Here, we apply a first-order, thermomechanical ice sheet model, validated against a diverse suite of empirical data, to investigate the retreat of the EISC after 23 ka BP, directly extending the work of Patton et al. (2016) who modelled the build-up to its maximum extent. Retreat of the ice sheet complex was highly asynchronous, reflecting contrasting regional sensitivities to climate forcing, oceanic influence, and internal dynamics. Most rapid retreat was experienced across the Barents Sea sector after 17.8 ka BP when this marine-based ice sheet disintegrated at a rate of ∼670 gigatonnes per year (Gt a-1) through enhanced calving and interior dynamic thinning, driven by oceanic/atmospheric warming and exacerbated by eustatic sea-level rise. From 14.9 to 12.9 ka BP the EISC lost on average 750 Gt a-1, peaking at rates >3000 Gt a-1, roughly equally partitioned between surface melt and dynamic losses, and potentially contributing up to 2.5 m to global sea-level rise during Meltwater Pulse 1A. Independent glacio-isostatic modelling constrained by an extensive inventory of relative sea-level change corroborates our ice sheet loading history of the Barents Sea sector. Subglacial conditions were predominately temperate during deglaciation, with over 6000 subglacial lakes predicted along with an extensive subglacial drainage network. Moreover, the maximum EISC and its isostatic footprint had a profound impact on the proglacial hydrological network, forming the Fleuve Manche mega-catchment which had an area of

  3. Modelling the surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet and neighbouring ice caps : A dynamical and statistical downscaling approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Noël, B.P.Y.

    2018-01-01

    The Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is the world’s second largest ice mass, storing about one tenth of the Earth’s freshwater. If totally melted, global sea level would rise by 7.4 m, affecting low-lying regions worldwide. Since the mid-1990s, increased atmospheric and oceanic temperatures have

  4. Performance of the Goddard multiscale modeling framework with Goddard ice microphysical schemes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chern, Jiun-Dar; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Lang, Stephen E.; Matsui, Toshihisa; Li, J.-L. F.; Mohr, Karen I.; Skofronick-Jackson, Gail M.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

    2016-03-01

    The multiscale modeling framework (MMF), which replaces traditional cloud parameterizations with cloud-resolving models (CRMs) within a host atmospheric general circulation model (GCM), has become a new approach for climate modeling. The embedded CRMs make it possible to apply CRM-based cloud microphysics directly within a GCM. However, most such schemes have never been tested in a global environment for long-term climate simulation. The benefits of using an MMF to evaluate rigorously and improve microphysics schemes are here demonstrated. Four one-moment microphysical schemes are implemented into the Goddard MMF and their results validated against three CloudSat/CALIPSO cloud ice products and other satellite data. The new four-class (cloud ice, snow, graupel, and frozen drops/hail) ice scheme produces a better overall spatial distribution of cloud ice amount, total cloud fractions, net radiation, and total cloud radiative forcing than earlier three-class ice schemes, with biases within the observational uncertainties. Sensitivity experiments are conducted to examine the impact of recently upgraded microphysical processes on global hydrometeor distributions. Five processes dominate the global distributions of cloud ice and snow amount in long-term simulations: (1) allowing for ice supersaturation in the saturation adjustment, (2) three additional correction terms in the depositional growth of cloud ice to snow, (3) accounting for cloud ice fall speeds, (4) limiting cloud ice particle size, and (5) new size-mapping schemes for snow and graupel. Despite the cloud microphysics improvements, systematic errors associated with subgrid processes, cyclic lateral boundaries in the embedded CRMs, and momentum transport remain and will require future improvement.

  5. Global sea-level rise is recognised, but flooding from anthropogenic land subsidence is ignored around northern Manila Bay, Philippines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodolfo, Kelvin S; Siringan, Fernando P

    2006-03-01

    Land subsidence resulting from excessive extraction of groundwater is particularly acute in East Asian countries. Some Philippine government sectors have begun to recognise that the sea-level rise of one to three millimetres per year due to global warming is a cause of worsening floods around Manila Bay, but are oblivious to, or ignore, the principal reason: excessive groundwater extraction is lowering the land surface by several centimetres to more than a decimetre per year. Such ignorance allows the government to treat flooding as a lesser problem that can be mitigated through large infrastructural projects that are both ineffective and vulnerable to corruption. Money would be better spent on preventing the subsidence by reducing groundwater pumping and moderating population growth and land use, but these approaches are politically and psychologically unacceptable. Even if groundwater use is greatly reduced and enlightened land-use practices are initiated, natural deltaic subsidence and global sea-level rise will continue to aggravate flooding, although at substantially lower rates.

  6. IceBridge: Bringing a Field Campaign Home

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woods, J.; Beck, J.; Bartholow, S.

    2015-12-01

    IceBridge, a six-year NASA mission, is the largest airborne survey of Earth's polar ice ever flown. It will yield an unprecedented three-dimensional view of Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets, ice shelves and sea ice. These flights will provide a yearly, multi-instrument look at the behavior of the rapidly changing features of the Greenland and Antarctic ice. Data collected during IceBridge will help scientists bridge the gap in polar observations between NASA's Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) -- in orbit since 2003 -- and ICESat-2, planned for 2017. ICESat stopped collecting science data in 2009, making IceBridge critical for ensuring a continuous series of observations. IceBridge will use airborne instruments to map Arctic and Antarctic areas once a year at a minimum, with new campaigns being developed during the Arctic melt season. IceBridge flights are conducted in the spring and summer for the Arctic and in the fall over Antarctica. Other smaller airborne surveys around the world are also part of the IceBridge campaign. IceBridge actively engages the public and educators through a variety of outlets ranging from communications strategies through social media outlets, to larger organized efforts such as PolarTREC. In field activities include blog posts, photo updates, in flight chat sessions, and more intensive live events to include google hangouts, where field team members can interact with the public during a scheduled broadcast. The IceBridge team provides scientists and other team members with the training and support to become communicators in their own right. There is an exciting new initiative where IceBridge will be collaborating with Undergraduate and Graduate students to integrate the next generation of scientists and communicators into the Science Teams. This will be explored through partnerships with institutions that are interested in mentoring through project based initiatives.

  7. Responding to climate change and the global land crisis: REDD+, market transformation and low-emissions rural development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nepstad, Daniel C; Boyd, William; Stickler, Claudia M; Bezerra, Tathiana; Azevedo, Andrea A

    2013-06-05

    Climate change and rapidly escalating global demand for food, fuel, fibre and feed present seemingly contradictory challenges to humanity. Can greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from land-use, more than one-fourth of the global total, decline as growth in land-based production accelerates? This review examines the status of two major international initiatives that are designed to address different aspects of this challenge. REDD+ is an emerging policy framework for providing incentives to tropical nations and states that reduce their GHG emissions from deforestation and forest degradation. Market transformation, best represented by agricultural commodity roundtables, seeks to exclude unsustainable farmers from commodity markets through international social and environmental standards for farmers and processors. These global initiatives could potentially become synergistically integrated through (i) a shared approach for measuring and favouring high environmental and social performance of land use across entire jurisdictions and (ii) stronger links with the domestic policies, finance and laws in the jurisdictions where agricultural expansion is moving into forests. To achieve scale, the principles of REDD+ and sustainable farming systems must be embedded in domestic low-emission rural development models capable of garnering support across multiple constituencies. We illustrate this potential with the case of Mato Grosso State in the Brazilian Amazon.

  8. Customer-oriented Data Formats and Services for Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) Products at the NASA GES DISC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Hongliang; Beaudoing, Hiroko; Rodell, Matthew; Teng, BIll; Vollmer, Bruce

    2008-01-01

    The Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) is generating a series of land surface state (e.g., soil moisture and surface temperature) and flux (e.g., evaporation and sensible heat flux) products simulated by four land surface Models (CLM, Mosaic, Noah and VIC). These products are now accessible at the Hydrology Data and Information Services Center (HDISC), a component of NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GESDISC).

  9. The De-Icing Comparison Experiment (D-ICE): A campaign for improving data retention rates of radiometric measurements under icing conditions in cold regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, C. J.; Morris, S. M.

    2017-12-01

    Longwave and shortwave radiative fluxes are fundamental quantities regularly observed globally using broadband radiometers. In cold climates, frost, rime, snow and ice (collectively, "icing") frequently builds up on sensor windows, contaminating measurements. Since icing occurs under particular meteorological conditions, associated data losses constitutes a climatological bias. Furthermore, the signal caused by ice is difficult to distinguish from that of clouds, hampering efforts to identify contaminated from real data in post-processing. Because of the sensitivity of radiometers to internal temperature instabilities, there are limitations to using heat as a de-icing method. The magnitude of this problem is indicated by the large number of research institutions and commercial vendors that have developed various de-icing strategies. The D-ICE campaign has been designed to bring together a large number of currently available systems to quantitatively evaluate and compare ice-migration strategies and also to characterize the potentially adverse effects of the techniques themselves. For D-ICE, a variety of automated approaches making use of ventilation, heating, modified housings and alcohol spray are being evaluated alongside standard units operating with only the regularly scheduled manual cleaning by human operators at the NOAA Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) station in Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska. Previous experience within the BSRN community suggests that aspiration of ambient air alone may be sufficient to maintain ice-free radiometers without increasing measurement uncertainty during icing conditions, forming the main guiding hypothesis of the experiment. Icing on the sensors is monitored visually using cameras recording images every 15 minutes and quantitatively using an icing probe and met station. The effects of applied heat on infrared loss in pyranometers will be analyzed and the integrated effect of icing on monthly averages will be

  10. Spatio Temporal Variability of the Global Transmittance During the Arctic POLARSTERN Expedition 106/1 Ice Floe Station

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrientos Velasco, C.; Macke, A.; Griesche, H.; Engelmann, R.; Deneke, H.; Seifert, P.

    2017-12-01

    The Arctic is warming at a higher rate than the rest of the planet. This has been leading to a dramatically decrease of snow coverage and sea ice thickness in recent years and several studies have suggested that a similar trend is expected in the upcoming years. Large uncertainties in predicting the Arctic climate arise from our lack of understanding the role clouds play in sea ice / atmosphere interaction. During summer the shortwave radiation dominates and clouds have a net cooling effect at the surface. The strength of this cooling critically depends on cloud phase, composition and height. Clouds interactions with aerosols, and its sensitivity to surface properties further complicates their role in the Arctic system. Scattering between the surface and cloud layers amplifies the cloud shortwave contribution, especially over a highly reflective surface such as snow or ice. Therefore, to comprehend how the Arctic's surface is significantly modulated by solar radiation is necessary to more clearly understand the cloud-induced spatio-temporal variability at process relevant scales. Irradiance variability may also have an effect on the biological productivity of various plankton species below the ice. The present study provides an overview of spatio-temporal variability at spatial scales ranging from several decameters to 1 kilometer of the global transmittance derived from 15 pyranometer stations installed at an ice floe station (June 4-16 2017) during the POLARSTERN expedition PS106/1. Specific irradiance statistics under clear sky, broken clouds and overcast conditions will be described considering the combination of a Cloud Radar Mira 35 and a Polly Raman polarization Lidar. Ultimately, radiative closure studies will be performed to quantify our abilities to reproduce realistic cloud solar radiative forcing under Arctic conditions. Acknowledgements. This research is funded by Deutsche Forschunsgemeinschaft (DFG) and involves the active participation of Leibniz

  11. ISLSCP II Historical Land Cover and Land Use, 1700-1990

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: The Historical Land Cover and Land Use data set was developed to provide the global change community with historical land use estimates. The data set...

  12. Evaluation of the global MODIS 30 arc-second spatially and temporally complete snow-free land surface albedo and reflectance anisotropy dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Qingsong; Wang, Zhuosen; Li, Zhan; Erb, Angela; Schaaf, Crystal B.

    2017-06-01

    Land surface albedo is an essential variable for surface energy and climate modeling as it describes the proportion of incident solar radiant flux that is reflected from the Earth's surface. To capture the temporal variability and spatial heterogeneity of the land surface, satellite remote sensing must be used to monitor albedo accurately at a global scale. However, large data gaps caused by cloud or ephemeral snow have slowed the adoption of satellite albedo products by the climate modeling community. To address the needs of this community, we used a number of temporal and spatial gap-filling strategies to improve the spatial and temporal coverage of the global land surface MODIS BRDF, albedo and NBAR products. A rigorous evaluation of the gap-filled values shows good agreement with original high quality data (RMSE = 0.027 for the NIR band albedo, 0.020 for the red band albedo). This global snow-free and cloud-free MODIS BRDF and albedo dataset (established from 2001 to 2015) offers unique opportunities to monitor and assess the impact of the changes on the Earth's land surface.

  13. Preindustrial nitrous oxide emissions from the land biosphere estimated by using a global biogeochemistry model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Rongting; Tian, Hanqin; Lu, Chaoqun; Pan, Shufen; Chen, Jian; Yang, Jia; Zhang, Bowen

    2017-07-01

    To accurately assess how increased global nitrous oxide (N2O) emission has affected the climate system requires a robust estimation of the preindustrial N2O emissions since only the difference between current and preindustrial emissions represents net drivers of anthropogenic climate change. However, large uncertainty exists in previous estimates of preindustrial N2O emissions from the land biosphere, while preindustrial N2O emissions on the finer scales, such as regional, biome, or sector scales, have not been well quantified yet. In this study, we applied a process-based Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM) to estimate the magnitude and spatial patterns of preindustrial N2O fluxes at the biome, continental, and global level as driven by multiple environmental factors. Uncertainties associated with key parameters were also evaluated. Our study indicates that the mean of the preindustrial N2O emission was approximately 6.20 Tg N yr-1, with an uncertainty range of 4.76 to 8.13 Tg N yr-1. The estimated N2O emission varied significantly at spatial and biome levels. South America, Africa, and Southern Asia accounted for 34.12, 23.85, and 18.93 %, respectively, together contributing 76.90 % of global total emission. The tropics were identified as the major source of N2O released into the atmosphere, accounting for 64.66 % of the total emission. Our multi-scale estimates provide a robust reference for assessing the climate forcing of anthropogenic N2O emission from the land biosphere

  14. Preindustrial nitrous oxide emissions from the land biosphere estimated by using a global biogeochemistry model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Xu

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available To accurately assess how increased global nitrous oxide (N2O emission has affected the climate system requires a robust estimation of the preindustrial N2O emissions since only the difference between current and preindustrial emissions represents net drivers of anthropogenic climate change. However, large uncertainty exists in previous estimates of preindustrial N2O emissions from the land biosphere, while preindustrial N2O emissions on the finer scales, such as regional, biome, or sector scales, have not been well quantified yet. In this study, we applied a process-based Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM to estimate the magnitude and spatial patterns of preindustrial N2O fluxes at the biome, continental, and global level as driven by multiple environmental factors. Uncertainties associated with key parameters were also evaluated. Our study indicates that the mean of the preindustrial N2O emission was approximately 6.20 Tg N yr−1, with an uncertainty range of 4.76 to 8.13 Tg N yr−1. The estimated N2O emission varied significantly at spatial and biome levels. South America, Africa, and Southern Asia accounted for 34.12, 23.85, and 18.93 %, respectively, together contributing 76.90 % of global total emission. The tropics were identified as the major source of N2O released into the atmosphere, accounting for 64.66 % of the total emission. Our multi-scale estimates provide a robust reference for assessing the climate forcing of anthropogenic N2O emission from the land biosphere

  15. Impacts of projected sea ice changes on trans-Arctic navigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephenson, S. R.; Smith, L. C.

    2012-12-01

    Reduced Arctic sea ice continues to be a palpable signal of global change. Record lows in September sea ice extent from 2007 - 2011 have fueled speculation that trans-Arctic navigation routes may become physically viable in the 21st century. General Circulation Models project a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer by mid-century; however, how reduced sea ice will realistically impact navigation is not well understood. Using the ATAM (Arctic Transportation Accessibility Model) we present simulations of 21st-century trans-Arctic voyages as a function of climatic (ice) conditions and vessel class. Simulations are based on sea ice projections for three climatic forcing scenarios (RCP 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 W/m^2) representing present-day and mid-century conditions, assuming Polar Class 6 (PC6) and open-water vessels (OW) with medium and no ice-breaking capability, respectively. Optimal least-cost routes (minimizing travel time while avoiding ice impassible to a given vessel class) between the North Atlantic and the Bering Strait were calculated for summer months of each time window. While Arctic navigation depends on other factors besides sea ice including economics, infrastructure, bathymetry, current, and weather, these projections should be useful for strategic planning by governments, regulatory and environmental agencies, and the global maritime industry to assess potential changes in the spatial and temporal ranges of Arctic marine operations.

  16. The Effect of Land Use (Deforestation) on Global Changing and its consequences in Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onursal Denli, G.; Denli, H. H.

    2015-12-01

    Land use has generally been considered as a local environmental issue, but it is becoming a force of global importance. Global changes to forests, farmlands, waterways, and air are being driven by the need to provide food, water and shelter to more than six billion people. Global croplands, pastures, plantations and urban areas have expanded in recent decades, accompanied by large increases in energy, water and fertilizer consumption, along with considerable losses of biodiversity. Especially the forests influence climate through physical, chemical and biological processes that affect planetary energetics, the hydrologic cycle, and atmospheric composition. Such changes in land use have enabled humans to appropriate an increasing share of the planet's resources, but they also potentially undermine the capacity of ecosystems to sustain food production, maintain freshwater and forest resources, regulate climate and air quality. Global Warming and Climate Change are the two main fundamental problems facing Turkey as well as the World. The expedition and size of this change is becoming noticeably conspicuous now. According to the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), the global temperature has been increased of about 0.74 degree Celsius since the Industrial Revolution. Interdisciplinary science that integrates knowledge of the many interacting climate services of forests with the impacts of global change is necessary to identify and understand as yet unexplored feedbacks in the Earth system and the potential of forests to mitigate climate change. The general scientific opinions on the climate change states that in the past 50 years, global warming has effected the human life resulting with very obvious influences. High rates of deforestation within a country are most commonly linked to population growth and poverty. In Turkey, the forests are destroyed for various reasons resulting to a change in the climate. This study examines the causes of

  17. Modeling the Space-Time Destiny of Pan-Arctic Permafrost DOC in a Global Land Surface Model: Feedback Implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowring, S.; Lauerwald, R.; Guenet, B.; Zhu, D.; Ciais, P.

    2017-12-01

    Most global climate models do not represent the unique permafrost soil environment and its respective processes. This significantly contributes to uncertainty in estimating their responses, and that of the planet at large, to warming. Here, the production, transport and atmospheric release of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from high-latitude permafrost soils into inland waters and the ocean is explicitly represented for the first time in the land surface component (ORCHIDEE-MICT) of a CMIP6 global climate model (IPSL). This work merges two models that are able to mechanistically simulate complex processes for 1) snow, ice and soil phenomena in high latitude environments, and 2) DOC production and lateral transport through soils and the river network, respectively, at 0.5° to 2° resolution. The resulting model is subjected to a wide range of input forcing data, parameter testing and contentious feedback phenomena, including microbial heat generation as the active layer deepens. We present results for the present and future Pan-Arctic and Eurasia, with a focus on the Lena and Mackenzie River basins, and show that soil DOC concentrations, their riverine transport and atmospheric evasion are reasonably well represented as compared to observed stocks, fluxes and seasonality. We show that most basins exhibit large increases in DOC transport and riverine CO2 evasion across the suite of RCP scenarios to 2100. We also show that model output is strongly influenced by choice of input forcing data. The riverine component of what is known as the `boundless carbon cycle' is little-recognized in global climate modeling. Hydrological mobilization to the river network results either in sedimentary settling or atmospheric `evasion', presently amounting to 0.5-1.8 PgC yr-1. Our work aims at filling in these knowledge gaps, and the response of these DOC-related processes to thermal forcing. Potential feedbacks owing to such a response are of particular relevance, given the magnitude

  18. Land

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C.A. Hunsberger (Carol); Tom P. Evans

    2012-01-01

    textabstractPressure on land resources has increased during recent years despite international goals to improve their management. The fourth Global Environment Outlook (UNEP 2007) highlighted the unprecedented land-use changes created by a burgeoning population, economic development and

  19. A study of Arctic sea ice freeboard heights, gravity anomalies and dynamic topography from ICESat measurementes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skourup, Henriette

    The Arctic sea ice cover has a great influence on the climate and is believed to respond rapidly to climate changes. Since 2003 the Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) laser altimetry mission has provided satellite altimetry over the ice covered Arctic Ocean up to 86 N. In this thesis...

  20. Midlatitude Ice-Rich Ground on Mars: An Important Target for Science and In Situ Resource Utilization on Human Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoker, Carol; Heldmann, Jennifer

    2015-01-01

    The region of ROI is characterized by proven presence of near surface ground ice and numerous periglacial features. Midlatitude ground ice on Mars is of significant scientific interest for understanding the history and evolution of ice stability on Mars, the impact that changes in insolation produced by variations in Mars’ orbital parameters has on the regions climate, and could provide human exploration with a reliable and plentiful in situ resource. For both science and exploration, assessing the astrobiological potential of the ice is important in terms of (1) understanding the potential for life on Mars and (2) evaluating the presence of possible biohazards in advance of human exploration. Heldmann et al. (2014) studied locations on Mars in the Amazonis Planitia region where near surface ground ice was exposed by new impact craters (Byrne et al. 2009). The study examined whether sites in this region were suitable for human exploration including reviewing the evidence for midlatitude ground ice, discussing the possible explanations for its occurrence, assessing its potential habitability for modern life, and evaluating the resource potential. They systematically analyzed remote-sensing data sets to identify a viable landing site. Five sites where ground ice was exposed were examined with HiRise imaging and were classified according to (1) presence of polygons as a proxy for subsurface ice, (2) presence and abundance of rough topographic obstacles (e.g., large cracks, cliffs, uneven topography), (3) rock density, (4) presence and abundance of large boulders, and (5) presence of craters. A suitable landing site was found having ground ice at only 0.15m depth, and no landing site hazards within a 25 km landing ellipse. This paper presents results of that study and examines the relevance of this ROI to the workshop goals.

  1. Global water balances reconstructed by multi-model offline simulations of land surface models under GSWP3 (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oki, T.; KIM, H.; Ferguson, C. R.; Dirmeyer, P.; Seneviratne, S. I.

    2013-12-01

    As the climate warms, the frequency and severity of flood and drought events is projected to increase. Understanding the role that the land surface will play in reinforcing or diminishing these extremes at regional scales will become critical. In fact, the current development path from atmospheric (GCM) to coupled atmosphere-ocean (AOGCM) to fully-coupled dynamic earth system models (ESMs) has brought new awareness to the climate modeling community of the abundance of uncertainty in land surface parameterizations. One way to test the representativeness of a land surface scheme is to do so in off-line (uncoupled) mode with controlled, high quality meteorological forcing. When multiple land schemes are run in-parallel (with the same forcing data), an inter-comparison of their outputs can provide the basis for model confidence estimates and future model refinements. In 2003, the Global Soil Wetness Project Phase 2 (GSWP2) provided the first global multi-model analysis of land surface state variables and fluxes. It spanned the decade of 1986-1995. While it was state-of-the art at the time, physical schemes have since been enhanced, a number of additional processes and components in the water-energy-eco-systems nexus can now be simulated, , and the availability of global, long-term observationally-based datasets that can be used for forcing and validating models has grown. Today, the data exists to support century-scale off-line experiments. The ongoing follow-on to GSWP2, named GSWP3, capitalizes on these new feasibilities and model functionalities. The project's cornerstone is its century-scale (1901-2010), 3-hourly, 0.5° meteorological forcing dataset that has been dynamically downscaled from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis and bias-corrected using monthly Climate Research Unit (CRU) temperature and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) precipitation data. However, GSWP3 also has an important long-term future climate component that spans the 21st century

  2. African land degradation in a world of global atmospheric change: fertilization conceals degradation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le, Lulseged Tamene, Paul L. G. Vlek, Quang Bao

    2009-04-01

    Land degradation is one of the most widespread environmental problems worldwide. The sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is one of the most seriously affected regions with huge implications on food security and economic development. To plan plausible management measures, understanding the magnitude of the problem and identification of hotspot areas are necessary. Analysis of remote sensing and climate data observed from space for the period 1982 - 2003 showed significant improvement in vegetation productivity across 30% of SSA with decline on 5% of the subcontinent. Global change in atmospheric chemistry is likely responsible for the observed increasing trend in vegetation productivity. Such widespread greening observed from space could mask anthropogenic land degradation processes such as land conversion, selective logging, and soil nutrient mining. To assess this possible masking effect, a re-analysis of the vegetation productivity dynamics, taking into account atmospheric fertilization, was conducted. This was performed by analyzing the long-term trend in vegetation productivity of pristine lands (areas with minimum human- and climate- related impacts) identified across different biomes in SSA. The baseline slope values of biomass accrual calculated for those pristine lands were estimated and used to re-calculate the long-term trend of green biomass with and without the impact of atmospheric fertilization. This ultimately enabled to delineate the areas that would have experienced significant loss in vegetation productivity had the atmospheric chemistry not changed. The result suggests that seven times more than the area of actual productivity decline in SSA is affected by land degradation processes that are concealed by atmospheric fertilization. With this rate of surreptitious loss of vital land attributes and with the current rate of population growth (3%), the SSA subcontinent may soon lack the land resources necessary to foster economic development. Spatially

  3. Combustion of available fossil-fuel resources sufficient to eliminate the Antarctic Ice Sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkelmann, R.; Levermann, A.; Ridgwell, A.; Caldeira, K.

    2015-12-01

    The Antarctic Ice Sheet stores water equivalent to 58 meters in global sea-level rise. Here we show in simulations with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model that burning the currently attainable fossil-fuel resources is sufficient to eliminate the ice sheet. With cumulative fossil-fuel emissions of 10 000 GtC, Antarctica is projected to become almost ice-free with an average contribution to sea-level rise exceeding 3 meters per century during the first millennium. Consistent with recent observations and simulations, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet becomes unstable with 600 to 800 GtC of additional carbon emissions. Beyond this additional carbon release, the destabilization of ice basins in both West- and East Antarctica results in a threshold-increase in global sea level. Unabated carbon emissions thus threaten the Antarctic Ice Sheet in its entirety with associated sea-level rise that far exceeds that of all other possible sources.

  4. A global high-resolution data set of ice sheet topography, cavity geometry and ocean bathymetry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schaffer, Janin; Timmermann, Ralph; Arndt, Jan Erik

    2016-01-01

    of the Southern Ocean (IBCSO) version 1. While RTopo-1 primarily aimed at a good and consistent representation of the Antarctic ice sheet, ice shelves, and sub-ice cavities, RTopo-2now also contains ice topographies of the Greenland ice sheet and outlet glaciers. In particular, we aimed at agood representation....... For the continental shelf off Northeast Greenland and the floating ice tongue of Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden Glacier at about79 N, we incorporated a high-resolution digital bathymetry model considering original multibeam survey datafor the region. Radar data for surface topographies of the floating ice tongues...... for the geometry of Getz, Abbot, andFimbul ice shelf cavities. The data set is available in full and in regional subsets in NetCDF format from thePANGAEA database at doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.856844....

  5. Indicators of Arctic Sea Ice Bistability in Climate Model Simulations and Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-30

    associated with the ice - albedo feedback and the seasonal melt and growth of sea ice , as well as horizontal climate variations on a global domain. (2...1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Indicators of Arctic Sea Ice Bistability in Climate...possibility that the climate system supports multiple Arctic sea ice states that are relevant for the evolution of sea ice during the next several

  6. Simulating Arctic clouds during Arctic Radiation- IceBridge Sea and Ice Experiment (ARISE)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bromwich, D. H.; Hines, K. M.; Wang, S. H.

    2015-12-01

    The representation within global and regional models of the extensive low-level cloud cover over polar oceans remains a critical challenge for quantitative studies and forecasts of polar climate. In response, the polar-optimized version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (Polar WRF) is used to simulate the meteorology, boundary layer, and Arctic clouds during the September-October 2014 Arctic Radiation- IceBridge Sea and Ice Experiment (ARISE) project. Polar WRF was developed with several adjustments to the sea ice thermodynamics in WRF. ARISE was based out of Eielson Air Force Base near Fairbanks, Alaska and included multiple instrumented C-130 aircraft flights over open water and sea ice of the Beaufort Sea. Arctic boundary layer clouds were frequently observed within cold northeasterly flow over the open ocean and ice. Preliminary results indicate these clouds were primarily liquid water, with characteristics differing between open water and sea ice surfaces. Simulated clouds are compared to ARISE observations. Furthermore, Polar WRF simulations are run for the August-September 2008 Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS) for comparison to the ARISE. Preliminary analysis shows that simulated low-level water clouds over the sea ice are too extensive during the the second half of the ASCOS field program. Alternatives and improvements to the Polar WRF cloud schemes are considered. The goal is to use the ARISE and ASCOS observations to achieve an improved polar supplement to the WRF code for open water and sea ice that can be provided to the Polar WRF community.

  7. Retrieving near-global aerosol loading over land and ocean from AVHRR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, N. C.; Lee, J.; Sayer, A. M.; Carletta, N.; Chen, S.-H.; Tucker, C. J.; Holben, B. N.; Tsay, S.-C.

    2017-09-01

    The spaceborne advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) sensor data record is approaching 40 years, providing a crucial asset for studying long-term trends of aerosol properties regionally and globally. However, due to limitations of its channels' information content, aerosol optical depth (AOD) data from AVHRR over land are still largely lacking. In this paper, we describe a new physics-based algorithm to retrieve aerosol loading over both land and ocean from AVHRR for the first time. The over-land algorithm is an extension of our Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Deep Blue algorithm, while a simplified version of our Satellite Ocean Aerosol Retrieval algorithm is used over ocean. We compare retrieved AVHRR AOD with that from MODIS on a daily and seasonal basis and find, in general, good agreement between the two. For the satellites with equatorial crossing times within 2 h of solar noon, the spatial coverage of the AVHRR aerosol product is comparable to that of MODIS, except over very bright arid regions (such as the Sahara), where the underlying surface reflectance at 630 nm reaches the critical surface reflectance. Based upon comparisons of the AVHRR AOD against Aerosol Robotic Network data, preliminary results indicate that the expected error confidence interval envelope is around ±(0.03 + 15%) over ocean and ±(0.05 + 25%) over land for this first version of the AVHRR aerosol products. Consequently, these new AVHRR aerosol products can contribute important building blocks for constructing a consistent long-term data record for climate studies.

  8. Determination of ice water path in ice-over-water cloud systems using combined MODIS and AMSR-E measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jianping; Minnis, Patrick; Lin, Bing; Yi, Yuhong; Fan, T.-F.; Sun-Mack, Sunny; Ayers, J. K.

    2006-11-01

    To provide more accurate ice cloud microphysical properties, the multi-layered cloud retrieval system (MCRS) is used to retrieve ice water path (IWP) in ice-over-water cloud systems globally over oceans using combined instrument data from Aqua. The liquid water path (LWP) of lower-layer water clouds is estimated from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) measurements. The properties of the upper-level ice clouds are then derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) measurements by matching simulated radiances from a two-cloud-layer radiative transfer model. The results show that the MCRS can significantly improve the accuracy and reduce the over-estimation of optical depth and IWP retrievals for ice-over-water cloud systems. The mean daytime ice cloud optical depth and IWP for overlapped ice-over-water clouds over oceans from Aqua are 7.6 and 146.4 gm-2, respectively, down from the initial single-layer retrievals of 17.3 and 322.3 gm-2. The mean IWP for actual single-layer clouds is 128.2 gm-2.

  9. Observing ice clouds in the submillimeter spectral range: the CloudIce mission proposal for ESA's Earth Explorer 8

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Buehler

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Passive submillimeter-wave sensors are a way to obtain urgently needed global data on ice clouds, particularly on the so far poorly characterized "essential climate variable" ice water path (IWP and on ice particle size. CloudIce was a mission proposal to the European Space Agency ESA in response to the call for Earth Explorer 8 (EE8, which ran in 2009/2010. It proposed a passive submillimeter-wave sensor with channels ranging from 183 GHz to 664 GHz. The article describes the CloudIce mission proposal, with particular emphasis on describing the algorithms for the data-analysis of submillimeter-wave cloud ice data (retrieval algorithms and demonstrating their maturity. It is shown that we have a robust understanding of the radiative properties of cloud ice in the millimeter/submillimeter spectral range, and that we have a proven toolbox of retrieval algorithms to work with these data. Although the mission was not selected for EE8, the concept will be useful as a reference for other future mission proposals.

  10. The seasonal cycle of snow cover, sea ice and surface albedo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robock, A.

    1980-01-01

    The paper examines satellite data used to construct mean snow cover caps for the Northern Hemisphere. The zonally averaged snow cover from these maps is used to calculate the seasonal cycle of zonally averaged surface albedo. The effects of meltwater on the surface, solar zenith angle, and cloudiness are parameterized and included in the calculations of snow and ice albedo. The data allows a calculation of surface albedo for any land or ocean 10 deg latitude band as a function of surface temperature ice and snow cover; the correct determination of the ice boundary is more important than the snow boundary for accurately simulating the ice and snow albedo feedback.

  11. The role of sea-ice albedo in the climate of slowly rotating aquaplanets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salameh, Josiane; Popp, Max; Marotzke, Jochem

    2018-04-01

    We investigate the influence of the rotation period (P_{rot}) on the mean climate of an aquaplanet, with a focus on the role of sea-ice albedo. We perform aquaplanet simulations with the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM6 for various rotation periods from one Earth-day to 365 Earth-days in which case the planet is synchronously rotating. The global-mean surface temperature decreases with increasing P_{rot} and sea ice expands equatorwards. The cooling of the mean climate with increasing P_{rot} is caused partly by the high surface albedo of sea ice on the dayside and partly by the high albedo of the deep convective clouds over the substellar region. The cooling caused by these deep convective clouds is weak for non-synchronous rotations compared to synchronous rotation. Sensitivity simulations with the sea-ice model switched off show that the global-mean surface temperature is up to 27 K higher than in our main simulations with sea ice and thus highlight the large influence of sea ice on the climate. We present the first estimates of the influence of the rotation period on the transition of an Earth-like climate to global glaciation. Our results suggest that global glaciation of planets with synchronous rotation occurs at substantially lower incoming solar irradiation than for planets with slow but non-synchronous rotation.

  12. Photophysiology and cellular composition of sea ice algae

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lizotte, M.P.

    1989-01-01

    The productivity of sea ice algae depends on their physiological capabilities and the environmental conditions within various microhabitats. Pack ice is the dominant form of sea ice, but the photosynthetic activity of associated algae has rarely been studied. Biomass and photosynthetic rates of ice algae of the Weddell-Scotia Sea were investigated during autumn and winter, the period when ice cover grows from its minimum to maximum. Biomass-specific photosynthetic rates typically ranged from 0.3 to 3.0 μg C · μg chl -1 · h -1 higher than land-fast ice algae but similar to Antarctic phytoplankton. Primary production in the pack ice during winter may be minor compared to annual phytoplankton production, but could represent a vital seasonal contribution to the Antarctic ecosystem. Nutrient supply may limit the productivity of ice algae. In McMurdo Sound, congelation ice algae appeared to be more nutrient deficient than underlying platelet ice algae based on: lower nitrogen:carbon, chlorophyll:carbon, and protein:carbohydrate; and 14 C-photosynthate distribution to proteins and phospholipids was lower, while distribution to polysaccharides and neutral lipids was higher. Depletion of nitrate led to decreased nitrogen:carbon, chlorophyll:carbon, protein:carbohydrate, and 14 C-photosynthate to proteins. Studied were conducted during the spring bloom; therefore, nutrient limitation may only apply to dense ice algal communities. Growth limiting conditions may be alleviated when algae are released into seawater during the seasonal recession of the ice cover. To continue growth, algae must adapt to the variable light field encountered in a mixed water column. Photoadaptation was studied in surface ice communities and in bottom ice communities

  13. Icing conditions over Northern Eurasia in changing climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bulygina, Olga N; Arzhanova, Natalia M; Groisman, Pavel Ya

    2015-01-01

    Icing conditions, particularly in combination with wind, affect greatly the operation of overhead communication and transmission lines causing serious failures, which result in tremendous economic damage. Icing formation is dangerous to agriculture, forestry, high seas fishery, for land and off coast man-made infrastructure. Quantitative icing characteristics such as weight, thickness, and duration are very important for the economy and human wellbeing when their maximum values exceed certain thresholds. Russian meteorological stations perform both visual and instrumental monitoring of icing deposits. Visual monitoring is ocular estimation of the type and intensity of icing and the date of ice appearance and disappearance. Instrumental monitoring is performed by ice accretion indicator that in addition to the type, intensity and duration of ice deposits reports also their weight and size. We used observations at 958 Russian stations for the period 1977–2013 to analyze changes in the ice formation frequency at individual meteorological stations and on the territory of quasi-homogeneous climatic regions in Russia. It was found that hoar frosts are observed in most parts of Russia, but icing only occurs in European Russia and the Far East. On the Arctic coast of Russia, this phenomenon can even be observed in summer months. Statistically significant decreasing trends in occurrence of icing and hoar frost events are found over most of Russia. An increasing trend in icing weights (IWs) was found in the Atlantic Arctic region in autumn. Statistically significant large negative trends in IWs were found in the Pacific Arctic in winter and spring. (letter)

  14. An empirical firn-densification model comprising ice-lences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reeh, Niels; Fisher, D.A.; Koerner, R.M.

    2005-01-01

    a suitable value of the surface snow density. In the present study, a simple densification model is developed that specifically accounts for the content of ice lenses in the snowpack. An annual layer is considered to be composed of an ice fraction and a firn fraction. It is assumed that all meltwater formed...... changes reflect a volume change of the ice sheet with no corresponding change of mass, i.e. a volume change that does not influence global sea level....

  15. Balance of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-01-01

    For several decades, measurements of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet showed it to be retreating rapidly. But new data derived from satellite-borne radar sensors show the ice sheet to be growing. Changing Antarctic ice sheets remains an area of high scientific interest, particularly in light of recent global warming concerns. These new findings are significant because scientists estimate that sea level would rise 5-6 meters (16-20 feet) if the ice sheet collapsed into the sea. Do these new measurements signal the end of the ice sheet's 10,000-year retreat? Or, are these new satellite data simply much more accurate than the sparse ice core and surface measurements that produced the previous estimates? Another possibility is that the ice accumulation may simply indicate that the ice sheet naturally expands and retreats in regular cycles. Cryologists will grapple with these questions, and many others, as they examine the new data. The image above depicts the region of West Antarctica where scientists measured ice speed. The fast-moving central ice streams are shown in red. Slower tributaries feeding the ice streams are shown in blue. Green areas depict slow-moving, stable areas. Thick black lines depict the areas that collect snowfall to feed their respective ice streams. Reference: Ian Joughin and Slawek Tulaczyk Science Jan 18 2002: 476-480. Image courtesy RADARSAT Antarctic Mapping Project

  16. Combustion of available fossil fuel resources sufficient to eliminate the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkelmann, Ricarda; Levermann, Anders; Ridgwell, Andy; Caldeira, Ken

    2015-09-01

    The Antarctic Ice Sheet stores water equivalent to 58 m in global sea-level rise. We show in simulations using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model that burning the currently attainable fossil fuel resources is sufficient to eliminate the ice sheet. With cumulative fossil fuel emissions of 10,000 gigatonnes of carbon (GtC), Antarctica is projected to become almost ice-free with an average contribution to sea-level rise exceeding 3 m per century during the first millennium. Consistent with recent observations and simulations, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet becomes unstable with 600 to 800 GtC of additional carbon emissions. Beyond this additional carbon release, the destabilization of ice basins in both West and East Antarctica results in a threshold increase in global sea level. Unabated carbon emissions thus threaten the Antarctic Ice Sheet in its entirety with associated sea-level rise that far exceeds that of all other possible sources.

  17. Aerosol optical thickness retrieval over land and water using Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kusmierczyk-Michulec, J.; Leeuw, G. de

    2005-01-01

    An algorithm for the retrieval of the aerosol optical thickness over land and over water from Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) data is presented. The cloud fraction in the GOME pixels is determined using the Fast Retrieval Scheme for Clouds From the Oxygen A Band (FRESCO) algorithm. Surface

  18. Katabatic winds diminish precipitation contribution to the Antarctic ice mass balance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grazioli, Jacopo; Madeleine, Jean-Baptiste; Gallée, Hubert; Forbes, Richard M; Genthon, Christophe; Krinner, Gerhard; Berne, Alexis

    2017-10-10

    Snowfall in Antarctica is a key term of the ice sheet mass budget that influences the sea level at global scale. Over the continental margins, persistent katabatic winds blow all year long and supply the lower troposphere with unsaturated air. We show that this dry air leads to significant low-level sublimation of snowfall. We found using unprecedented data collected over 1 year on the coast of Adélie Land and simulations from different atmospheric models that low-level sublimation accounts for a 17% reduction of total snowfall over the continent and up to 35% on the margins of East Antarctica, significantly affecting satellite-based estimations close to the ground. Our findings suggest that, as climate warming progresses, this process will be enhanced and will limit expected precipitation increases at the ground level.

  19. Past climate changes derived from isotope measurements in polar ice cores

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beer, J.; Muscheler, R.; Wagner, G.; Kubik, P.K.

    2002-01-01

    Measurements of stable and radioactive isotopes in polar ice cores provide a wealth of information on the climate conditions of the past. Stable isotopes (δ 18 O, δD) reflect mainly the temperature, whereas δ 18 O of oxygen in air bubbles reveals predominantly the global ice volume and the biospheric activity. Cosmic ray produced radioisotopes (cosmogenic nuclides) such as 10 Be and 36 Cl record information on the solar variability and possibly also on the solar irradiance. If the flux of a cosmogenic nuclide into the ice is known the accumulation rate can be derived from the measured concentration. The comparison of 10 Be from ice with 14 C from tree rings allows deciding whether observed 14 C variations are caused by production or system effects. Finally, isotope measurements are very useful for establishing and improving time scales. The 10 Be/ 36 Cl ratio changes with an apparent half-life of 376,000 years and is therefore well suited to date old ice. Significant abrupt changes in the records of 10 Be, 36 Cl from ice and of δ 18 O from atmospheric oxygen representing global signals can be used to synchronize ice and sediment cores. (author)

  20. Greenland ice mass balance from GPS, GRACE and ICESat

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khan, Shfaqat Abbas; Kjær, Kurt H.; Korsgaard, Niels Jákup

    Greenland, using stereoscopic coverage by aerial photographs recorded in 1985, and subsequent comparative surface elevation data from ICESat (Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite) and ATM (Airborne Topographic Mapper) supplemented with measurements from GPS and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment...... (GRACE) satellite gravity mission, launched in March, 2002. The GRACE results provide a direct measure of mass loss, while the GPS data are used to monitor crustal uplift caused by ice mass loss close to the GPS sites....

  1. Ecology under lake ice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hampton, Stephanie E.; Galloway, Aaron W. E.; Powers, Stephen M.; Ozersky, Ted; Woo, Kara H.; Batt, Ryan D.; Labou, Stephanie G.; O'Reilly, Catherine M.; Sharma, Sapna; Lottig, Noah R.; Stanley, Emily H.; North, Rebecca L.; Stockwell, Jason D.; Adrian, Rita; Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A.; Arvola, Lauri; Baulch, Helen M.; Bertani, Isabella; Bowman, Larry L., Jr.; Carey, Cayelan C.; Catalan, Jordi; Colom-Montero, William; Domine, Leah M.; Felip, Marisol; Granados, Ignacio; Gries, Corinna; Grossart, Hans-Peter; Haberman, Juta; Haldna, Marina; Hayden, Brian; Higgins, Scott N.; Jolley, Jeff C.; Kahilainen, Kimmo K.; Kaup, Enn; Kehoe, Michael J.; MacIntyre, Sally; Mackay, Anson W.; Mariash, Heather L.; Mckay, Robert M.; Nixdorf, Brigitte; Noges, Peeter; Noges, Tiina; Palmer, Michelle; Pierson, Don C.; Post, David M.; Pruett, Matthew J.; Rautio, Milla; Read, Jordan S.; Roberts, Sarah L.; Ruecker, Jacqueline; Sadro, Steven; Silow, Eugene A.; Smith, Derek E.; Sterner, Robert W.; Swann, George E. A.; Timofeyev, Maxim A.; Toro, Manuel; Twiss, Michael R.; Vogt, Richard J.; Watson, Susan B.; Whiteford, Erika J.; Xenopoulos, Marguerite A.

    Winter conditions are rapidly changing in temperate ecosystems, particularly for those that experi-ence periods of snow and ice cover. Relatively little is known of winter ecology in these systems,due to a historical research focus on summer ‘growing seasons’. We executed the first global

  2. Simulation of the Greenland Ice Sheet over two glacial–interglacial cycles: investigating a sub-ice-shelf melt parameterization and relative sea level forcing in an ice-sheet–ice-shelf model

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    S. L. Bradley

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Observational evidence, including offshore moraines and sediment cores, confirm that at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS expanded to a significantly larger spatial extent than seen at present, grounding into Baffin Bay and out onto the continental shelf break. Given this larger spatial extent and its close proximity to the neighbouring Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS and Innuitian Ice Sheet (IIS, it is likely these ice sheets will have had a strong non-local influence on the spatial and temporal behaviour of the GrIS. Most previous paleo ice-sheet modelling simulations recreated an ice sheet that either did not extend out onto the continental shelf or utilized a simplified marine ice parameterization which did not fully include the effect of ice shelves or neglected the sensitivity of the GrIS to this non-local bedrock signal from the surrounding ice sheets. In this paper, we investigated the evolution of the GrIS over the two most recent glacial–interglacial cycles (240 ka BP to the present day using the ice-sheet–ice-shelf model IMAU-ICE. We investigated the solid earth influence of the LIS and IIS via an offline relative sea level (RSL forcing generated by a glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA model. The RSL forcing governed the spatial and temporal pattern of sub-ice-shelf melting via changes in the water depth below the ice shelves. In the ensemble of simulations, at the glacial maximums, the GrIS coalesced with the IIS to the north and expanded to the continental shelf break to the southwest but remained too restricted to the northeast. In terms of the global mean sea level contribution, at the Last Interglacial (LIG and LGM the ice sheet added 1.46 and −2.59 m, respectively. This LGM contribution by the GrIS is considerably higher (∼  1.26 m than most previous studies whereas the contribution to the LIG highstand is lower (∼  0.7 m. The spatial and temporal behaviour of the northern margin was

  3. The Second Deep Ice Coring Project at Dome Fuji, Antarctica

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    Hideaki Motoyama

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Throughout the history of the polar icecaps, dust and aerosols have been transported through the atmosphere to the poles, to be preserved within the annually freezing ice of the growing ice shields. Therefore, the Antarctic ice sheet is a “time capsule" for environmental data, containing information of ancient periods of Earth’s history. To unravel this history and decode cycles in glaciations and global change is among the major goals of the Dome Fuji Ice Coring Project.

  4. Modeling the imprint of Milankovitch cycles on early Pleistocene ice volume

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roychowdhury, R.; DeConto, R.; Pollard, D.

    2017-12-01

    Global climate during Quaternary and Late Pliocene (present-3.1 Ma) is characterized by alternating glacial and interglacial conditions. Several proposed theories associate these cycles with variations in the Earth's orbital configuration. In this study, we attempt to address the anomalously strong obliquity forcing in the Late Pliocene/Early Pleistocene ice volume records (41 kyr world), which stands in sharp contrast to the primary cyclicity of insolation, which is at precessional periods (23 kyr). Model results from GCM simulations show that at low eccentricities (e0.015), precessional response is important, and the insolation metrics vary out-of-phase between the two hemispheres. Using simulations from a GCM-driven ice sheet model, we simulate time continuous ice volume changes from Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Under eccentricities lower than 0.015, ice sheets in both hemispheres respond only to obliquity cycle, and grow and melt together (in-phase). If the ice sheet is simulated with eccentricity higher than 0.015, both hemispheres become more sensitive to precessional variation, and vary out-of-phase with each other, which is consistent with proxy observations from the late Pleistocene glaciations. We use the simulated ice volumes from 2.0 to 1.0 ma to empirically calculate global benthic δ18O variations based on the assumption that relationships between collapse and growth of ice-sheets and sea level is linear and symmetric and that the isotopic signature of the individual ice-sheets has not changed with time. Our modeled global benthic δ18O values are broadly consistent with the paleoclimate proxy records such as the LR04 stack.

  5. Global agricultural land resources--a high resolution suitability evaluation and its perspectives until 2100 under climate change conditions.

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    Florian Zabel

    Full Text Available Changing natural conditions determine the land's suitability for agriculture. The growing demand for food, feed, fiber and bioenergy increases pressure on land and causes trade-offs between different uses of land and ecosystem services. Accordingly, an inventory is required on the changing potentially suitable areas for agriculture under changing climate conditions. We applied a fuzzy logic approach to compute global agricultural suitability to grow the 16 most important food and energy crops according to the climatic, soil and topographic conditions at a spatial resolution of 30 arc seconds. We present our results for current climate conditions (1981-2010, considering today's irrigated areas and separately investigate the suitability of densely forested as well as protected areas, in order to investigate their potentials for agriculture. The impact of climate change under SRES A1B conditions, as simulated by the global climate model ECHAM5, on agricultural suitability is shown by comparing the time-period 2071-2100 with 1981-2010. Our results show that climate change will expand suitable cropland by additionally 5.6 million km2, particularly in the Northern high latitudes (mainly in Canada, China and Russia. Most sensitive regions with decreasing suitability are found in the Global South, mainly in tropical regions, where also the suitability for multiple cropping decreases.

  6. Pan-Arctic sea ice-algal chl a biomass and suitable habitat are largely underestimated for multiyear ice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lange, Benjamin A; Flores, Hauke; Michel, Christine; Beckers, Justin F; Bublitz, Anne; Casey, John Alec; Castellani, Giulia; Hatam, Ido; Reppchen, Anke; Rudolph, Svenja A; Haas, Christian

    2017-11-01

    There is mounting evidence that multiyear ice (MYI) is a unique component of the Arctic Ocean and may play a more important ecological role than previously assumed. This study improves our understanding of the potential of MYI as a suitable habitat for sea ice algae on a pan-Arctic scale. We sampled sea ice cores from MYI and first-year sea ice (FYI) within the Lincoln Sea during four consecutive spring seasons. This included four MYI hummocks with a mean chl a biomass of 2.0 mg/m 2 , a value significantly higher than FYI and MYI refrozen ponds. Our results support the hypothesis that MYI hummocks can host substantial ice-algal biomass and represent a reliable ice-algal habitat due to the (quasi-) permanent low-snow surface of these features. We identified an ice-algal habitat threshold value for calculated light transmittance of 0.014%. Ice classes and coverage of suitable ice-algal habitat were determined from snow and ice surveys. These ice classes and associated coverage of suitable habitat were applied to pan-Arctic CryoSat-2 snow and ice thickness data products. This habitat classification accounted for the variability of the snow and ice properties and showed an areal coverage of suitable ice-algal habitat within the MYI-covered region of 0.54 million km 2 (8.5% of total ice area). This is 27 times greater than the areal coverage of 0.02 million km 2 (0.3% of total ice area) determined using the conventional block-model classification, which assigns single-parameter values to each grid cell and does not account for subgrid cell variability. This emphasizes the importance of accounting for variable snow and ice conditions in all sea ice studies. Furthermore, our results indicate the loss of MYI will also mean the loss of reliable ice-algal habitat during spring when food is sparse and many organisms depend on ice-algae. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Assessment of the sea-ice carbon pump: Insights from a three-dimensional ocean-sea-ice biogeochemical model (NEMO-LIM-PISCES

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    Sébastien Moreau

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The role of sea ice in the carbon cycle is minimally represented in current Earth System Models (ESMs. Among potentially important flaws, mentioned by several authors and generally overlooked during ESM design, is the link between sea-ice growth and melt and oceanic dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC and total alkalinity (TA. Here we investigate whether this link is indeed an important feature of the marine carbon cycle misrepresented in ESMs. We use an ocean general circulation model (NEMO-LIM-PISCES with sea-ice and marine carbon cycle components, forced by atmospheric reanalyses, adding a first-order representation of DIC and TA storage and release in/from sea ice. Our results suggest that DIC rejection during sea-ice growth releases several hundred Tg C yr−1 to the surface ocean, of which < 2% is exported to depth, leading to a notable but weak redistribution of DIC towards deep polar basins. Active carbon processes (mainly CaCO3 precipitation but also ice-atmosphere CO2 fluxes and net community production increasing the TA/DIC ratio in sea-ice modified ocean-atmosphere CO2 fluxes by a few Tg C yr−1 in the sea-ice zone, with specific hemispheric effects: DIC content of the Arctic basin decreased but DIC content of the Southern Ocean increased. For the global ocean, DIC content increased by 4 Tg C yr−1 or 2 Pg C after 500 years of model run. The simulated numbers are generally small compared to the present-day global ocean annual CO2 sink (2.6 ± 0.5 Pg C yr−1. However, sea-ice carbon processes seem important at regional scales as they act significantly on DIC redistribution within and outside polar basins. The efficiency of carbon export to depth depends on the representation of surface-subsurface exchanges and their relationship with sea ice, and could differ substantially if a higher resolution or different ocean model were used.

  8. Evaluation of historical land cover, land use, and land-use change emissions in the GCAM integrated assessment model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvin, K. V.; Wise, M.; Kyle, P.; Janetos, A. C.; Zhou, Y.

    2012-12-01

    Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are often used as science-based decision-support tools for evaluating the consequences of climate and energy policies, and their use in this framework is likely to increase in the future. However, quantitative evaluation of these models has been somewhat limited for a variety of reasons, including data availability, data quality, and the inherent challenges in projections of societal values and decision-making. In this analysis, we identify and confront methodological challenges involved in evaluating the agriculture and land use component of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). GCAM is a global integrated assessment model, linking submodules of the regionally disaggregated global economy, energy system, agriculture and land-use, terrestrial carbon cycle, oceans and climate. GCAM simulates supply, demand, and prices for energy and agricultural goods from 2005 to 2100 in 5-year increments. In each time period, the model computes the allocation of land across a variety of land cover types in 151 different regions, assuming that farmers maximize profits and that food demand is relatively inelastic. GCAM then calculates both emissions from land-use practices, and long-term changes in carbon stocks in different land uses, thus providing simulation information that can be compared to observed historical data. In this work, we compare GCAM results, both in recent historic and future time periods, to historical data sets. We focus on land use, land cover, land-use change emissions, and albedo.

  9. Land-use change trajectories up to 2050. Insights from a global agro-economic model comparison

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schmitz, Christoph [Potsdam Inst. Climate Impact Research (PIK), Telegrafenberg (Germany); van Meijl, Hans [Wageningen Univ. and Research Center, Hague (Netherlands); Kyle, G. Page [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Nelson, Gerald C. [International Food Policy Research Inst. (IFPRI), Washington, DC (United States); Univ. of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL (United States); Fujimori, Shinichiro [National Inst. for Environmental Studies (NIES), Ibaraki (Japan); Gurgel, Angelo [Sao Paulo School of Economics (EESP-FGV) (Brazil); Havlik, Petr [International Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria); Heyhoe, Edwina [Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES), Canberra (Australia); Mason d' Croz, Daniel [International Food Policy Research Inst. (IFPRI), Washington, DC (United States); Popp, Alexander [Potsdam Inst. Climate Impact Research (PIK), Telegrafenberg (Germany); Sands, Ronald [U.S. Dept. of Agriculture (USDA), Washington, DC (United States); Tabeau, Andrzej [Wageningen Univ. and Research Center, Hague (Netherlands); van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique [Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Rome (Italy); von Lampe, Martin [Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Paris (France); Wise, Marshall A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Blanc, Elodie [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States); Hasegawa, Tomoko [National Inst. for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba (Japan); Kavallari, Aikaterini [Wageningen Univ. and Research Center, Hague (Netherlands); Valin, Hugo [International Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria)

    2013-12-10

    Changes in agricultural land use have important implications for environmental services. Previous studies of agricultural land-use futures have been published indicating large uncertainty due to different model assumptions and methodologies. In this article we present a first comprehensive comparison of global agro-economic models that have harmonized drivers of population, GDP, and biophysical yields. The comparison allows us to ask two research questions: (1) How much cropland will be used under different socioeconomic and climate change scenarios? (2) How can differences in model results be explained? The comparison includes four partial and six general equilibrium models that differ in how they model land supply and amount of potentially available land. We analyze results of two different socioeconomic scenarios and three climate scenarios (one with constant climate). Most models (7 out of 10) project an increase of cropland of 10–25% by 2050 compared to 2005 (under constant climate), but one model projects a decrease. Pasture land expands in some models, which increase the treat on natural vegetation further. Across all models most of the cropland expansion takes place in South America and sub-Saharan Africa. In general, the strongest differences in model results are related to differences in the costs of land expansion, the endogenous productivity responses, and the assumptions about potential cropland.

  10. Global land cover mapping at 30 m resolution: A POK-based operational approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jun; Chen, Jin; Liao, Anping; Cao, Xin; Chen, Lijun; Chen, Xuehong; He, Chaoying; Han, Gang; Peng, Shu; Lu, Miao; Zhang, Weiwei; Tong, Xiaohua; Mills, Jon

    2015-05-01

    Global Land Cover (GLC) information is fundamental for environmental change studies, land resource management, sustainable development, and many other societal benefits. Although GLC data exists at spatial resolutions of 300 m and 1000 m, a 30 m resolution mapping approach is now a feasible option for the next generation of GLC products. Since most significant human impacts on the land system can be captured at this scale, a number of researchers are focusing on such products. This paper reports the operational approach used in such a project, which aims to deliver reliable data products. Over 10,000 Landsat-like satellite images are required to cover the entire Earth at 30 m resolution. To derive a GLC map from such a large volume of data necessitates the development of effective, efficient, economic and operational approaches. Automated approaches usually provide higher efficiency and thus more economic solutions, yet existing automated classification has been deemed ineffective because of the low classification accuracy achievable (typically below 65%) at global scale at 30 m resolution. As a result, an approach based on the integration of pixel- and object-based methods with knowledge (POK-based) has been developed. To handle the classification process of 10 land cover types, a split-and-merge strategy was employed, i.e. firstly each class identified in a prioritized sequence and then results are merged together. For the identification of each class, a robust integration of pixel-and object-based classification was developed. To improve the quality of the classification results, a knowledge-based interactive verification procedure was developed with the support of web service technology. The performance of the POK-based approach was tested using eight selected areas with differing landscapes from five different continents. An overall classification accuracy of over 80% was achieved. This indicates that the developed POK-based approach is effective and feasible

  11. What Role for Humans in Global Land Cover Change over the Holocene? Insights from Models and Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, J. O.; Krumhardt, K. M.; Davis, B. A. S.; Zanon, M.

    2014-12-01

    Did humans affect global climate over the before the Industrial Era? While this question is hotly debated, the co-evolution of humans and the natural environment over the last 11,700 years had an undisputed role in influencing the development and present state of terrestrial ecosystems, many of which are highly valued today as economic, cultural, and ecological resources. Yet we still have a very incomplete picture of human-environment interactions over the Holocene. In order to address this, we combined a global dynamic vegetation model with a new model of preindustrial anthropogenic land cover change. We drive this integrated model a new synthesis of demographic, technological, and economic development over preindustrial time, and a database of historical urbanization covering the last 8000 years. We simulate natural vegetation and anthropogenic land use from 11,700 years before present to AD 1850 and compare these results with regional syntheses of pollen-based reconstructions of land cover. Our model results show that climate and tectonics controlled global land cover in the early Holocene. Shifts in forest biomes on the northern continents show an expansion of temperate tree types far to the north of their present day limits. By the early Iron Age (1000 BC), however, humans in Europe, East Asia, and Mesoamerica had a larger influence than natural processes on the landscape. Anthropogenic deforestation was widespread with most areas of temperate Europe and southwest Asia, east-central China, northern India, and Mesoamerica occupied by a matrix of natural vegetation, cropland and pastures. While we simulate fluctuations in human impact on the landscape, including periods of widespread land abandonment, e.g., during the Migration Period in Europe that following the end of the Western Roman Empire, approaching the Industrial Revolution nearly all of the landmasses of Europe and south and East Asia are dominated by anthropogenic activities. In contrast, the

  12. Representing anthropogenic gross land use change, wood harvest, and forest age dynamics in a global vegetation model ORCHIDEE-MICT v8.4.2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, Chao; Ciais, Philippe; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan; Li, Wei; McGrath, Matthew J.; Chang, Jinfeng; Peng, Shushi

    2018-01-01

    Land use change (LUC) is among the main anthropogenic disturbances in the global carbon cycle. Here we present the model developments in a global dynamic vegetation model ORCHIDEE-MICT v8.4.2 for a more realistic representation of LUC processes. First, we included gross land use change (primarily shifting cultivation) and forest wood harvest in addition to net land use change. Second, we included sub-grid evenly aged land cohorts to represent secondary forests and to keep track of the transient stage of agricultural lands since LUC. Combination of these two features allows the simulation of shifting cultivation with a rotation length involving mainly secondary forests instead of primary ones. Furthermore, a set of decision rules regarding the land cohorts to be targeted in different LUC processes have been implemented. Idealized site-scale simulation has been performed for miombo woodlands in southern Africa assuming an annual land turnover rate of 5 % grid cell area between forest and cropland. The result shows that the model can correctly represent forest recovery and cohort aging arising from agricultural abandonment. Such a land turnover process, even though without a net change in land cover, yields carbon emissions largely due to the imbalance between the fast release from forest clearing and the slow uptake from agricultural abandonment. The simulation with sub-grid land cohorts gives lower emissions than without, mainly because the cleared secondary forests have a lower biomass carbon stock than the mature forests that are otherwise cleared when sub-grid land cohorts are not considered. Over the region of southern Africa, the model is able to account for changes in different forest cohort areas along with the historical changes in different LUC activities, including regrowth of old forests when LUC area decreases. Our developments provide possibilities to account for continental or global forest demographic change resulting from past anthropogenic and

  13. Creep deformation and buttressing capacity of damaged ice shelves: theory and application to Larsen C ice shelf

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    C. P. Borstad

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Around the perimeter of Antarctica, much of the ice sheet discharges to the ocean through floating ice shelves. The buttressing provided by ice shelves is critical for modulating the flux of ice into the ocean, and the presently observed thinning of ice shelves is believed to be reducing their buttressing capacity and contributing to the acceleration and thinning of the grounded ice sheet. However, relatively little attention has been paid to the role that fractures play in the ability of ice shelves to sustain and transmit buttressing stresses. Here, we present a new framework for quantifying the role that fractures play in the creep deformation and buttressing capacity of ice shelves. We apply principles of continuum damage mechanics to derive a new analytical relation for the creep of an ice shelf that accounts for the softening influence of fractures on longitudinal deformation using a state damage variable. We use this new analytical relation, combined with a temperature calculation for the ice, to partition an inverse method solution for ice shelf rigidity into independent solutions for softening damage and stabilizing backstress. Using this new approach, field and remote sensing data can be utilized to monitor the structural integrity of ice shelves, their ability to buttress the flow of ice at the grounding line, and thus their indirect contribution to ice sheet mass balance and global sea level. We apply this technique to the Larsen C ice shelf using remote sensing and Operation IceBridge data, finding damage in areas with known crevasses and rifts. Backstress is highest near the grounding line and upstream of ice rises, in agreement with patterns observed on other ice shelves. The ice in contact with the Bawden ice rise is weakened by fractures, and additional damage or thinning in this area could diminish the backstress transmitted upstream. We model the consequences for the ice shelf if it loses contact with this small ice rise

  14. Greenland and Antarctica Ice Sheet Mass Changes and Effects on Global Sea Level

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forsberg, René; Sørensen, Louise Sandberg; Simonsen, Sebastian Bjerregaard

    2017-01-01

    Thirteen years of GRACE data provide an excellent picture of the current mass changes of Greenland and Antarctica, with mass loss in the GRACE period 2002–2015 amounting to 265 ± 25 GT/year for Greenland (including peripheral ice caps), and 95 ± 50 GT/year for Antarctica, corresponding to 0.......72 and 0.26 mm/year average global sea level change. A significant acceleration in mass loss rate is found, especially for Antarctica, while Greenland mass loss, after a corresponding acceleration period, and a record mass loss in the summer of 2012, has seen a slight decrease in short-term mass loss trend....... The yearly mass balance estimates, based on point mass inversion methods, have relatively large errors, both due to uncertainties in the glacial isostatic adjustment processes, especially for Antarctica, leakage from unmodelled ocean mass changes, and (for Greenland) difficulties in separating mass signals...

  15. Neutron activation analysis on sediments from Victoria Land, Antarctica. Multi-elemental characterization of potential atmospheric dust sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baccolo, G.; Maggi, V.; Baroni, C.; Clemenza, M.; Motta, A.; Nastasi, M.; Previtali, E.; University of Milano-Bicocca, Milan; Delmonte, B.; Salvatore, M.C.

    2014-01-01

    The elemental composition of 40 samples of mineral sediments collected in Victoria Land, Antarctica, in correspondence of ice-free sites, is presented. Concentration of 36 elements was determined by instrumental neutron activation analysis, INAA. The selection of 6 standard reference materials and the development of a specific analytical procedure allowed to reduce measurements uncertainties and to verify the reproducibility of the results. The decision to analyze sediment samples from Victoria Land ice-free areas is related to recent investigations regarding mineral dust content in the TALos Dome ICE core (159deg11'E; 72deg49'S, East Antarctica, Victoria Land), in which a coarse local fraction of dust was recognized. The characterization of Antarctic potential source areas of atmospheric mineral dust is the first step to identify the active sources of dust for the Talos Dome area and to reconstruct the atmospheric pathways followed by air masses in this region during different climatic periods. Principal components analysis was used to identify elements and samples correlations; attention was paid specially to rare earth elements (REE) and incompatible/compatible elements (ICE) in respect to iron, which proved to be the most discriminating elemental groups. The analysis of REE and ICE concentration profiles supported evidences of chemical weathering in ice-free areas of Victoria Land, whereas cold and dry climate conditions of the Talos Dome area and in general of East Antarctica. (author)

  16. Mercury from wildfires: Global emission inventories and sensitivity to 2000-2050 global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Aditya; Wu, Shiliang; Huang, Yaoxian; Liao, Hong; Kaplan, Jed O.

    2018-01-01

    We estimate the global Hg wildfire emissions for the 2000s and the potential impacts from the 2000-2050 changes in climate, land use and land cover and Hg anthropogenic emissions by combining statistical analysis with global data on vegetation type and coverage as well as fire activities. Global Hg wildfire emissions are estimated to be 612 Mg year-1. Africa is the dominant source region (43.8% of global emissions), followed by Eurasia (31%) and South America (16.6%). We find significant perturbations to wildfire emissions of Hg in the context of global change, driven by the projected changes in climate, land use and land cover and Hg anthropogenic emissions. 2000-2050 climate change could increase Hg emissions by 14% globally and regionally by 18% for South America, 14% for Africa and 13% for Eurasia. Projected changes in land use by 2050 could decrease the global Hg emissions from wildfires by 13% mainly driven by a decline in African emissions due to significant agricultural land expansion. Future land cover changes could lead to significant increases in Hg emissions over some regions (+32% North America, +14% Africa, +13% Eurasia). Potential enrichment of terrestrial ecosystems in 2050 in response to changes in Hg anthropogenic emissions could increase Hg wildfire emissions globally (+28%) and regionally (+19% North America, +20% South America, +24% Africa, +41% Eurasia). Our results indicate that the future evolution of climate, land use and land cover and Hg anthropogenic emissions are all important factors affecting Hg wildfire emissions in the coming decades.

  17. Rapid Environmental Change Drives Increased Land Use by an Arctic Marine Predator.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Todd C Atwood

    Full Text Available In the Arctic Ocean's southern Beaufort Sea (SB, the length of the sea ice melt season (i.e., period between the onset of sea ice break-up in summer and freeze-up in fall has increased substantially since the late 1990s. Historically, polar bears (Ursus maritimus of the SB have mostly remained on the sea ice year-round (except for those that came ashore to den, but recent changes in the extent and phenology of sea ice habitat have coincided with evidence that use of terrestrial habitat is increasing. We characterized the spatial behavior of polar bears spending summer and fall on land along Alaska's north coast to better understand the nexus between rapid environmental change and increased use of terrestrial habitat. We found that the percentage of radiocollared adult females from the SB subpopulation coming ashore has tripled over 15 years. Moreover, we detected trends of earlier arrival on shore, increased length of stay, and later departure back to sea ice, all of which were related to declines in the availability of sea ice habitat over the continental shelf and changes to sea ice phenology. Since the late 1990s, the mean duration of the open-water season in the SB increased by 36 days, and the mean length of stay on shore increased by 31 days. While on shore, the distribution of polar bears was influenced by the availability of scavenge subsidies in the form of subsistence-harvested bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus remains aggregated at sites along the coast. The declining spatio-temporal availability of sea ice habitat and increased availability of human-provisioned resources are likely to result in increased use of land. Increased residency on land is cause for concern given that, while there, bears may be exposed to a greater array of risk factors including those associated with increased human activities.

  18. Socioeconomic contexts of primate conservation: population, poverty, global economic demands, and sustainable land use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estrada, Alejandro

    2013-01-01

    Recent assessments by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) indicate the existence of about 612 recognized primate species and subspecies (IUCN RedList, 2012), but close to 50% of these taxa are at risk of extinction as a result of human action. In this article, I call attention to underlying regional and global socioeconomic contexts of primate conservation. Using information from FAO and UN databases and other sources, I examine, for the Neotropics, sub-Saharan Africa, and Southeast Asia, trends in forest loss and human demographics and social condition, discuss the impact of global market pressures upon primate habitats, and examine land-use patterns that may favor primate conservation. Between 1990 and 2010, an estimated 149 million ha of forest were lost in the three regions and additional losses are expected in the future. Global human population will increase from 7 billion in 2012 to 9 billion in 2050. Currently, 2 billion people live in the three primate range regions under high levels of poverty. Large-scale deforestation is related to global market demands, especially from developed and developing nations, for food (e.g., cattle), domestic animal feed (e.g., soybeans), biofuel-based crops (e.g., oil palm), and industrial round wood. The growth of protected areas in the three regions has been steady for several decades, but it is not enough to ensure long-term conservation of many primate taxa. Other conservations tools involving sustainable land use and biodiversity conservation corridors are required at the landscape level. The above assessment can easily be applied at the local level by primatologists, giving more precision to conservation initiatives. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  19. Sentinel-3 For Land Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goryl, Philippe; Gobron, Nadine; Mecklenburg, Susanne; Donlon, Craig; Bouvet, Marc; Buongiorno, Alessandra; Wilson, Hilary

    2016-07-01

    The Copernicus Programme, being Europe's Earth Observation and Monitoring Programme led by the European Union, aims to provide, on a sustainable basis, reliable and timely services related to environmental and security issues. The Sentinel-3 mission forms part of the Copernicus Space Component. Its main objectives, building on the heritage and experience of the European Space Agency's (ESA) ERS and ENVISAT missions, are to measure sea-surface topography, sea- and land-surface temperature and ocean- and land-surface colour in support of ocean forecasting systems, and for environmental and climate monitoring. The series of Sentinel-3 satellites will ensure global, frequent and near-real time ocean, ice and land monitoring, with the provision of observation data in a routine, long-term (up to 20 years of operations) and continuous fashion, with a consistent quality and a high level of reliability and availability. The launch of Sentinel-3 was successful last February 2016. The Sentinel-3 missions are jointly operated by ESA and EUMETSAT. ESA will be responsible for the operations, maintenance and evolution of the Sentinel-3 ground segment on land related products and EUMETSAT on the marine products and the satellite monitoring and control. All facilities supporting the Sentinel-3 operations are in place. The Sentinel-3 ground segment systematically acquires, processes and distributes a set of pre-defined core data products to the users. For a detailed description of the core data products please see https://earth.esa.int/web/sentinel/missions/sentinel-3/data-products. On request from the European Commission, ESA and EUMETSAT are presently assessing the possibility to include further core data products, in particular on aerosol optical depth, fire monitoring and synergistic products over land. This paper will provide an update on the status of the mission operations after the initial months in orbit and provide in particular an overview on the status of the Sentinel-3

  20. Titan's surface spectra at the Huygens landing site and Shangri-La

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rannou, P.; Toledo, D.; Lavvas, P.; D'Aversa, E.; Moriconi, M. L.; Adriani, A.; Le Mouélic, S.; Sotin, C.; Brown, R.

    2016-05-01

    Titan is an icy satellite of Saturn with a dense atmosphere and covered by a global photochemical organic haze. Ground based observations and the Huygens descent probe allowed to retrieve the main spectral signature of the water ice (Griffith, C.A. et al. [2003]. Science 300(5619), 628-630; Coustenis, A. et al. [2005]. Icarus 177, 89-105) at the surface, possibly covered by a layer of sedimented organic material (Tomasko, M.G. et al. [2005]. Nature 438(7069), 765-778). However, the spectrum of the surface is not yet understood. In this study, we find that the surface reflectivity at the Huygens Landing Site (HLS) is well modeled by a layer of water ice grains overlaid by a moist layer of weakly compacted photochemical aggregated aerosols. Moist soils have spectra shifted toward short wavelengths relatively to spectra of dry soils. Cassini observations of Shangri-La region from orbit also show a very dark surface with a reflectivity peak shifted toward short wavelengths in respect to the reflectivity peak of bright surfaces, revealing a dichotomy between terrains based to their spectra in visible.

  1. A geoelectrical survey above an Antarctic ice shelf

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Pavan

    1998-06-01

    Full Text Available A geoelectrical survey was performed on the Hells Gate ice shelf (Victoria Land-Antarctic within the framework of an integrated geophysical and glaciological research program. The resistivity profiles show a similar trend, with resistivity values ranging from about 25000 W · m to 500000 W · m. These results have been interpreted as the effect of a sharp transition from "marine ice" to "continental" ice an interpretation that is consistent with the results of surface mapping. Interpreting the Vertical Electrical Soundings (VES is a complex process. In fact, the alternating layers of ice with different compositions and salt content generate great uncertainty relative to the corresponding electric stratigraphies. To solve these problems of equivalency, all the available constraints were used including the drilling thickness, seismic reflection profiles as well as radar profiles. The results were used to provide what is mainly a qualitative overview that is coherent with the glaciological hypotheses relative to the evolution and structure proposed by some researchers for this ice shelf.

  2. Feedback attribution of the land-sea warming contrast in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sejas, Sergio A; Albert, Oriene S; Cai, Ming; Deng, Yi

    2014-01-01

    One of the salient features in both observations and climate simulations is a stronger land warming than sea. This paper provides a quantitative understanding of the main processes that contribute to the land-sea warming asymmetry in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4. The CO 2 forcing alone warms the surface nearly the same for both land and sea, suggesting that feedbacks are responsible for the warming contrast. Our analysis on one hand confirms that the principal contributor to the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio is the evaporation feedback; on the other hand the results indicate that the sensible heat flux feedback has the largest land-sea warming difference that favors a greater ocean than land warming. Therefore, the results uniquely highlight the importance of other feedbacks in establishing the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio. Particularly, the SW cloud feedback and the ocean heat storage in the transient response are key contributors to the greater warming over land than sea. (letter)

  3. Detecting high spatial variability of ice shelf basal mass balance, Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf, Antarctica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Berger

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Ice shelves control the dynamic mass loss of ice sheets through buttressing and their integrity depends on the spatial variability of their basal mass balance (BMB, i.e. the difference between refreezing and melting. Here, we present an improved technique – based on satellite observations – to capture the small-scale variability in the BMB of ice shelves. As a case study, we apply the methodology to the Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf, Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica, and derive its yearly averaged BMB at 10 m horizontal gridding. We use mass conservation in a Lagrangian framework based on high-resolution surface velocities, atmospheric-model surface mass balance and hydrostatic ice-thickness fields (derived from TanDEM-X surface elevation. Spatial derivatives are implemented using the total-variation differentiation, which preserves abrupt changes in flow velocities and their spatial gradients. Such changes may reflect a dynamic response to localized basal melting and should be included in the mass budget. Our BMB field exhibits much spatial detail and ranges from −14.7 to 8.6 m a−1 ice equivalent. Highest melt rates are found close to the grounding line where the pressure melting point is high, and the ice shelf slope is steep. The BMB field agrees well with on-site measurements from phase-sensitive radar, although independent radar profiling indicates unresolved spatial variations in firn density. We show that an elliptical surface depression (10 m deep and with an extent of 0.7 km × 1.3 km lowers by 0.5 to 1.4 m a−1, which we tentatively attribute to a transient adaptation to hydrostatic equilibrium. We find evidence for elevated melting beneath ice shelf channels (with melting being concentrated on the channel's flanks. However, farther downstream from the grounding line, the majority of ice shelf channels advect passively (i.e. no melting nor refreezing toward the ice shelf front. Although the absolute, satellite

  4. Drumlinised glaciofluvial and glaciolacustrine sediments on the Småland peneplain, South Sweden - new information on the growth and decay history of the Fennoscandian Ice Sheets during MIS 3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Möller, Per; Murray, Andrew S.

    2015-08-01

    Dug trenches in sediment-cored drumlins on the Småland peneplain, southern Sweden, occurring intermixed with rock-cored drumlins, revealed sedimentary successions and facies suggesting that the core sediments were primarily deposited proglacially, both in glaciolacustrine settings as delta-front and more distal deeper-water sediments, and as glaciofluvial braidplain sediments. From the relationship between the drumlin sorted-sediment cores and their surficial drape by a till carapace, it is concluded that erosion was the main drumlin-forming process here, reshaping the original sediment morphology into streamlined landforms, after which a more or less thick traction till was deposited over the eroded and/or deformed ice-bed interface. Drumlin formation probably took place during the last deglaciation over the area. The drumlin-core sediments in 14 excavated trenches were dated by Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL); most retrieved ages fall into two distinct groups, both within Marine Isotope Stage 3 (c. 60-30 ka). When plotted as mean OSL ages for each site, all but two sites fall either into an older age group, c. 48-56 ka (seven sites), or into a younger age group, c. 28-38 ka (five sites). These age intervals correlate well with the suggested time spans for the Ristinge and Klintholm ice advances in Denmark by ice flowing from the Baltic Basin westwards, terminating in fan-shaped patterns. These interstadial ice advances in the southwestern sector of the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet give rise to enigmatic questions on the physics and mechanics of ice sheet build-up and decay, especially as palaeoenvironmental data for northern Fennoscandia suggest widespread ice-free conditions within roughly the same time fame as the recorded ice advances in the south.

  5. On the Land-Ocean Contrast of Tropical Convection and Microphysics Statistics Derived from TRMM Satellite Signals and Global Storm-Resolving Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsui, Toshihisa; Chern, Jiun-Dar; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Lang, Stephen E.; Satoh, Masaki; Hashino, Tempei; Kubota, Takuji

    2016-01-01

    A 14-year climatology of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) collocated multi-sensor signal statistics reveal a distinct land-ocean contrast as well as geographical variability of precipitation type, intensity, and microphysics. Microphysics information inferred from the TRMM precipitation radar and Microwave Imager (TMI) show a large land-ocean contrast for the deep category, suggesting continental convective vigor. Over land, TRMM shows higher echo-top heights and larger maximum echoes, suggesting taller storms and more intense precipitation, as well as larger microwave scattering, suggesting the presence of morelarger frozen convective hydrometeors. This strong land-ocean contrast in deep convection is invariant over seasonal and multi-year time-scales. Consequently, relatively short-term simulations from two global storm-resolving models can be evaluated in terms of their land-ocean statistics using the TRMM Triple-sensor Three-step Evaluation via a satellite simulator. The models evaluated are the NASA Multi-scale Modeling Framework (MMF) and the Non-hydrostatic Icosahedral Cloud Atmospheric Model (NICAM). While both simulations can represent convective land-ocean contrasts in warm precipitation to some extent, near-surface conditions over land are relatively moisture in NICAM than MMF, which appears to be the key driver in the divergent warm precipitation results between the two models. Both the MMF and NICAM produced similar frequencies of large CAPE between land and ocean. The dry MMF boundary layer enhanced microwave scattering signals over land, but only NICAM had an enhanced deep convection frequency over land. Neither model could reproduce a realistic land-ocean contrast in in deep convective precipitation microphysics. A realistic contrast between land and ocean remains an issue in global storm-resolving modeling.

  6. Multidecadal global cooling and unprecedented ozone loss following a regional nuclear conflict

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mills, Michael J.; Toon, Owen B.; Lee-Taylor, Julia; Robock, Alan

    2014-04-01

    We present the first study of the global impacts of a regional nuclear war with an Earth system model including atmospheric chemistry, ocean dynamics, and interactive sea ice and land components. A limited, regional nuclear war between India and Pakistan in which each side detonates 50 15 kt weapons could produce about 5 Tg of black carbon (BC). This would self-loft to the stratosphere, where it would spread globally, producing a sudden drop in surface temperatures and intense heating of the stratosphere. Using the Community Earth System Model with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, we calculate an e-folding time of 8.7 years for stratospheric BC compared to 4-6.5 years for previous studies. Our calculations show that global ozone losses of 20%-50% over populated areas, levels unprecedented in human history, would accompany the coldest average surface temperatures in the last 1000 years. We calculate summer enhancements in UV indices of 30%-80% over midlatitudes, suggesting widespread damage to human health, agriculture, and terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Killing frosts would reduce growing seasons by 10-40 days per year for 5 years. Surface temperatures would be reduced for more than 25 years due to thermal inertia and albedo effects in the ocean and expanded sea ice. The combined cooling and enhanced UV would put significant pressures on global food supplies and could trigger a global nuclear famine. Knowledge of the impacts of 100 small nuclear weapons should motivate the elimination of more than 17,000 nuclear weapons that exist today.

  7. A multivariate analysis of Antarctic sea ice since 1979

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Magalhaes Neto, Newton de; Evangelista, Heitor [Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (Uerj), LARAMG - Laboratorio de Radioecologia e Mudancas Globais, Maracana, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Tanizaki-Fonseca, Kenny [Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (Uerj), LARAMG - Laboratorio de Radioecologia e Mudancas Globais, Maracana, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF), Dept. Analise Geoambiental, Inst. de Geociencias, Niteroi, RJ (Brazil); Penello Meirelles, Margareth Simoes [Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (UERJ)/Geomatica, Maracana, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Garcia, Carlos Eiras [Universidade Federal do Rio Grande (FURG), Laboratorio de Oceanografia Fisica, Rio Grande, RS (Brazil)

    2012-03-15

    Recent satellite observations have shown an increase in the total extent of Antarctic sea ice, during periods when the atmosphere and oceans tend to be warmer surrounding a significant part of the continent. Despite an increase in total sea ice, regional analyses depict negative trends in the Bellingshausen-Amundsen Sea and positive trends in the Ross Sea. Although several climate parameters are believed to drive the formation of Antarctic sea ice and the local atmosphere, a descriptive mechanism that could trigger such differences in trends are still unknown. In this study we employed a multivariate analysis in order to identify the response of the Antarctic sea ice with respect to commonly utilized climate forcings/parameters, as follows: (1) The global air surface temperature, (2) The global sea surface temperature, (3) The atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration, (4) The South Annular Mode, (5) The Nino 3, (6) The Nino (3 + 4, 7) The Nino 4, (8) The Southern Oscillation Index, (9) The Multivariate ENSO Index, (10) the Total Solar Irradiance, (11) The maximum O{sub 3} depletion area, and (12) The minimum O{sub 3} concentration over Antarctica. Our results indicate that western Antarctic sea ice is simultaneously impacted by several parameters; and that the minimum, mean, and maximum sea ice extent may respond to a separate set of climatic/geochemical parameters. (orig.)

  8. Ice_Sheets_CCI: Essential Climate Variables for the Greenland Ice Sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forsberg, R.; Sørensen, L. S.; Khan, A.; Aas, C.; Evansberget, D.; Adalsteinsdottir, G.; Mottram, R.; Andersen, S. B.; Ahlstrøm, A.; Dall, J.; Kusk, A.; Merryman, J.; Hvidberg, C.; Khvorostovsky, K.; Nagler, T.; Rott, H.; Scharrer, M.; Shepard, A.; Ticconi, F.; Engdahl, M.

    2012-04-01

    As part of the ESA Climate Change Initiative (www.esa-cci.org) a long-term project "ice_sheets_cci" started January 1, 2012, in addition to the existing 11 projects already generating Essential Climate Variables (ECV) for the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). The "ice_sheets_cci" goal is to generate a consistent, long-term and timely set of key climate parameters for the Greenland ice sheet, to maximize the impact of European satellite data on climate research, from missions such as ERS, Envisat and the future Sentinel satellites. The climate parameters to be provided, at first in a research context, and in the longer perspective by a routine production system, would be grids of Greenland ice sheet elevation changes from radar altimetry, ice velocity from repeat-pass SAR data, as well as time series of marine-terminating glacier calving front locations and grounding lines for floating-front glaciers. The ice_sheets_cci project will involve a broad interaction of the relevant cryosphere and climate communities, first through user consultations and specifications, and later in 2012 optional participation in "best" algorithm selection activities, where prototype climate parameter variables for selected regions and time frames will be produced and validated using an objective set of criteria ("Round-Robin intercomparison"). This comparative algorithm selection activity will be completely open, and we invite all interested scientific groups with relevant experience to participate. The results of the "Round Robin" exercise will form the algorithmic basis for the future ECV production system. First prototype results will be generated and validated by early 2014. The poster will show the planned outline of the project and some early prototype results.

  9. Cirrus Susceptibility to Changes in Ice Nuclei: Physical Processes, Model Uncertainties, and Measurement Needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, Eric

    2018-01-01

    One of the proposed concepts for mitigating the warming effect of increasing greenhouse gases is seeding cirrus cloud with ice nuclei (IN) in order to reduce the lifetime and coverage of cold cirrus that have a net warming impact on the earth's surface. Global model simulations of the net impact of changing upper tropospheric IN have given widely disparate results, partly as a result of poor understanding of ice nucleation processes in the current atmosphere, and partly as a result of poor representation of these processes in global models. Here, we present detailed process-model simulations of tropical tropopause layer (TTL) transport and cirrus formation with ice nuclei properties based on recent laboratory nucleation experiments and field measurements of aerosol composition. The model is used to assess the sensitivity of TTL cirrus occurrence frequency and microphysical properties to the abundance and efficacy of ice nuclei. The simulated cloud properties compared with recent high-altitude aircraft measurements of TTL cirrus and ice supersaturation. We find that abundant effective IN (either from glassy organic aerosols or crystalline ammonium sulfate with concentrations greater than about 100/L) prevent the occurrences of large ice concentration and large ice supersaturations, both of which are clearly indicated by the in situ observations. We find that concentrations of effective ice nuclei larger than about 50/L can drive significant changes in cirrus microphysical properties and occurrence frequency. However, the cloud occurrence frequency can either increase or decrease, depending on the efficacy and abundance of IN added to the TTL. We suggest that our lack of information about ice nuclei properties in the current atmosphere, as well as uncertainties in ice nucleation processes and their representations in global models, preclude meaningful estimates of climate impacts associated with addition of ice nuclei in the upper troposphere. We will briefly discuss

  10. The ICE-6G_C (VM5a) Global Model of the GIA Process: Antarctica at High Spatial Resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peltier, W. R.; Drummond, R.; Argus, D. F.

    2016-12-01

    The ICE-6G_C (VM5a) global model of the glacial isostatic adjustment process (Argus et al., 2014 GJI 198, 537-563; Peltier et al. , 2015, JGR 119, doi:10.1002/2014JB011176) is the latest model in the ICE-nG (VMx) sequence. The model continues to be unique in that it is the only model whose properties are made freely available at each iterative step in its development. This latest version, which embodies detailed descriptions of the Laurentide , Fennoscandian/Barents Sea, Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets through the most recent glacial cycle, is a refinement based primarily upon the incorporation of the constraints being provided by GPS measurements of the vertical and horizontal motion of the crust as well as GRACE observations of the time dependent gravity field. The model has been shown to provide exceptionally accurate predictions of these space geodetic observations of the response to the most recent Late Quaternary glacial cycle. Particular attention has been paid to the Antarctic component as it is well known on the basis of analyses of the sedimentary stratigraphy off-shore and geomorphological characteristics of the continental shelf, that the Last Glacial Maximum state of the southern continent was one in which grounded ice extended out to the shelf break in most locations, including significant fractions of the Ross Sea and Weddell Sea embayments. In the latter regions especially, it is expected that grounded ice would have existed below sea level. In ICE-6G_C (VM5a) a grounding line tracking algorithm was employed (Stuhne and Peltier, 2015 JGR 120, 1841-1865) in order to describe the unloading of the solid surface by ice that was initially grounded below sea level, an apparently unique characteristic of this model. In the initially published version, in which the Sea Level Equation (SLE) was inverted on a basis of spherical harmonics truncated at degree and order 256, this led to "ringing" in the embayments when the Stokes coefficients of the model

  11. Land cover in Upper Egypt assessed using regional and global land cover products derived from MODIS imagery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuller, Douglas O; Parenti, Michael S; Gad, Adel M; Beier, John C

    2012-01-01

    Irrigation along the Nile River has resulted in dramatic changes in the biophysical environment of Upper Egypt. In this study we used a combination of MODIS 250 m NDVI data and Landsat imagery to identify areas that changed from 2001-2008 as a result of irrigation and water-level fluctuations in the Nile River and nearby water bodies. We used two different methods of time series analysis -- principal components (PCA) and harmonic decomposition (HD), applied to the MODIS 250 m NDVI images to derive simple three-class land cover maps and then assessed their accuracy using a set of reference polygons derived from 30 m Landsat 5 and 7 imagery. We analyzed our MODIS 250 m maps against a new MODIS global land cover product (MOD12Q1 collection 5) to assess whether regionally specific mapping approaches are superior to a standard global product. Results showed that the accuracy of the PCA-based product was greater than the accuracy of either the HD or MOD12Q1 products for the years 2001, 2003, and 2008. However, the accuracy of the PCA product was only slightly better than the MOD12Q1 for 2001 and 2003. Overall, the results suggest that our PCA-based approach produces a high level of user and producer accuracies, although the MOD12Q1 product also showed consistently high accuracy. Overlay of 2001-2008 PCA-based maps showed a net increase of 12 129 ha of irrigated vegetation, with the largest increase found from 2006-2008 around the Districts of Edfu and Kom Ombo. This result was unexpected in light of ambitious government plans to develop 336 000 ha of irrigated agriculture around the Toshka Lakes.

  12. Monitoring Bedfast Ice and Ice Phenology in Lakes of the Lena River Delta Using TerraSAR-X Backscatter and Coherence Time Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sofia Antonova

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Thermokarst lakes and ponds are major elements of permafrost landscapes, occupying up to 40% of the land area in some Arctic regions. Shallow lakes freeze to the bed, thus preventing permafrost thaw underneath them and limiting the length of the period with greenhouse gas production in the unfrozen lake sediments. Radar remote sensing permits to distinguish lakes with bedfast ice due to the difference in backscatter intensities from bedfast and floating ice. This study investigates the potential of a unique time series of three-year repeat-pass TerraSAR-X (TSX imagery with high temporal (11 days and spatial (10 m resolution for monitoring bedfast ice as well as ice phenology of lakes in the zone of continuous permafrost in the Lena River Delta, Siberia. TSX backscatter intensity is shown to be an excellent tool for monitoring floating versus bedfast lake ice as well as ice phenology. TSX-derived timing of ice grounding and the ice growth model CLIMo are used to retrieve the ice thicknesses of the bedfast ice at points where in situ ice thickness measurements were available. Comparison shows good agreement in the year of field measurements. Additionally, for the first time, an 11-day sequential interferometric coherence time series is analyzed as a supplementary approach for the bedfast ice monitoring. The coherence time series detects most of the ice grounding as well as spring snow/ice melt onset. Overall, the results show the great value of TSX time series for monitoring Arctic lake ice and provide a basis for various applications: for instance, derivation of shallow lakes bathymetry, evaluation of winter water resources and locating fish winter habitat as well as estimation of taliks extent in permafrost.

  13. Land cover in the Guayas Basin using SAR images from low resolution ASAR Global mode to high resolution Sentinel-1 images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourrel, Luc; Brodu, Nicolas; Frappart, Frédéric

    2016-04-01

    Remotely sensed images allow a frequent monitoring of land cover variations at regional and global scale. Recently launched Sentinel-1 satellite offers a global cover of land areas at an unprecedented spatial (20 m) and temporal (6 days at the Equator). We propose here to compare the performances of commonly used supervised classification techniques (i.e., k-nearest neighbors, linear and Gaussian support vector machines, naive Bayes, linear and quadratic discriminant analyzes, adaptative boosting, loggit regression, ridge regression with one-vs-one voting, random forest, extremely randomized trees) for land cover applications in the Guayas Basin, the largest river basin of the Pacific coast of Ecuator (area ~32,000 km²). The reason of this choice is the importance of this region in Ecuatorian economy as its watershed represents 13% of the total area of Ecuador where 40% of the Ecuadorian population lives. It also corresponds to the most productive region of Ecuador for agriculture and aquaculture. Fifty percents of the country shrimp farming production comes from this watershed, and represents with agriculture the largest source of revenue of the country. Similar comparisons are also performed using ENVISAT ASAR images acquired in global mode (1 km of spatial resolution). Accuracy of the results will be achieved using land cover map derived from multi-spectral images.

  14. Two drastically different climate states on an Earth-like land planet with overland water recycling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalidindi, S.; Reick, C. H.; Raddatz, T.; Claussen, M.

    2017-12-01

    Prior studies have demonstrated that habitable areas on low-obliquity land planets are confined to the edges of frozen ice caps. Whether such dry planets can maintain long-lived liquid water is unclear. Leconte et al. 2013 argue that on such planets mechanisms like gravity driven ice flows and geothermal flux can maintain liquid water at the edges of thick ice caps and this water may flow back to the lower latitudes through rivers. However, there exists no modelling study which investigates the climate of an Earth-like land planet with an overland recycling mechanism bringing fresh water back from higher to lower latitudes. In our study, by using a comprehensive climate model ICON, we find that an Earth-like land planet with an overland recycling mechanism can exist in two drastically different climate states for the same set of boundary conditions and parameter values: A Cold and Wet (CW) state with dominant low-latitude precipitation and, a Hot and Dry (HD) state with only high-latitude precipitation. For perpetual equinox conditions, both climate states are stable below a certain threshold value of background soil albedo (α) while above that only the CW state is stable. Starting from the HD state and increasing α above the threshold causes an abrupt shift from the HD state to the CW state resulting in a sudden cooling of about 35°C globally which is of the order of the temperature difference between the present-day and the Snowball Earth state. In contrast to the Snowball Earth instability, we find that the sudden cooling in our study is driven by the cloud albedo feedback rather than the snow-albedo feedback. Also, when α in the CW state is reduced back to zero the land planet does not display a closed hysteresis. Our study also has implications for the habitability of Earth-like land planets. At the inner edge of the habitable zone, the higher cloud cover in the CW state cools the planet and may prevent the onset of a runaway greenhouse state. At the outer

  15. The community Noah land surface model with multiparameterization options (Noah-MP): 2. Evaluation over global river basins

    KAUST Repository

    Yang, Zong-Liang

    2011-06-24

    The augmented Noah land surface model described in the first part of the two-part series was evaluated here over global river basins. Across various climate zones, global-scale tests can reveal a model\\'s weaknesses and strengths that a local-scale testing cannot. In addition, global-scale tests are more challenging than local- and catchment-scale tests. Given constant model parameters (e. g., runoff parameters) across global river basins, global-scale tests are more stringent. We assessed model performance against various satellite and ground-based observations over global river basins through six experiments that mimic a transition from the original Noah LSM to the fully augmented version. The model shows transitional improvements in modeling runoff, soil moisture, snow, and skin temperature, despite considerable increase in computational time by the fully augmented Noah-MP version compared to the original Noah LSM. The dynamic vegetation model favorably captures seasonal and spatial variability of leaf area index and green vegetation fraction. We also conducted 36 ensemble experiments with 36 combinations of optional schemes for runoff, leaf dynamics, stomatal resistance, and the β factor. Runoff schemes play a dominant and different role in controlling soil moisture and its relationship with evapotranspiration compared to ecological processes such as β the factor, vegetation dynamics, and stomatal resistance. The 36-member ensemble mean of runoff performs better than any single member over the world\\'s 50 largest river basins, suggesting a great potential of land-based ensemble simulations for climate prediction. Copyright © 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

  16. Downscaling global land cover projections from an integrated assessment model for use in regional analyses: results and evaluation for the US from 2005 to 2095

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    West, Tristram O; Le Page, Yannick; Wolf, Julie; Thomson, Allison M; Huang, Maoyi

    2014-01-01

    Projections of land cover change generated from integrated assessment models (IAM) and other economic-based models can be applied for analyses of environmental impacts at sub-regional and landscape scales. For those IAM and economic models that project land cover change at the continental or regional scale, these projections must be downscaled and spatially distributed prior to use in climate or ecosystem models. Downscaling efforts to date have been conducted at the national extent with relatively high spatial resolution (30 m) and at the global extent with relatively coarse spatial resolution (0.5°). We revised existing methods to downscale global land cover change projections for the US to 0.05° resolution using MODIS land cover data as the initial proxy for land class distribution. Land cover change realizations generated here represent a reference scenario and two emissions mitigation pathways (MPs) generated by the global change assessment model (GCAM). Future gridded land cover realizations are constructed for each MODIS plant functional type (PFT) from 2005 to 2095, commensurate with the community land model PFT land classes, and archived for public use. The GCAM land cover realizations provide spatially explicit estimates of potential shifts in croplands, grasslands, shrublands, and forest lands. Downscaling of the MPs indicate a net replacement of grassland by cropland in the western US and by forest in the eastern US. An evaluation of the downscaling method indicates that it is able to reproduce recent changes in cropland and grassland distributions in respective areas in the US, suggesting it could provide relevant insights into the potential impacts of socio-economic and environmental drivers on future changes in land cover. (letters)

  17. Solid and gaseous inclusions in the EDML deep ice core: origins and implications for the physical properties of polar ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faria, S. H.; Kipfstuhl, S.; Garbe, C. S.; Bendel, V.; Weikusat, C.; Weikusat, I.

    2010-12-01

    The great value of polar deep ice cores stems mainly from two essential features of polar ice: its crystalline structure and its impurities. They determine the physical properties of the ice matrix and provide proxies for the investigation of past climates. Experience shows that these two essential features of polar ice manifest themselves in a multiscale diversity of dynamic structures, including dislocations, grain boundaries, solid particles, air bubbles, clathrate hydrates and cloudy bands, among others. The fact that these structures are dynamic implies that they evolve with time through intricate interactions between the crystalline structure, impurities, and the ice flow. Records of these interactions have been carefully investigated in samples of the EPICA deep ice core drilled in Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica (75°S, 0°E, 2882 m elevation, 2774.15 m core length). Here we show how the distributions of sizes and shapes of air bubbles correlate with impurities and the crystalline structure, how the interaction between moving grain boundaries and micro-inclusions changes with ice depth and temperature, as well as the possible causes for the abrupt change in ice rheology observed in the MIS6-MIS5e transition. We also discuss how these observations may affect the flow of the ice sheet and the interpretation of paleoclimate records. Micrograph of an EDML sample from 555m depth. One can identify air bubbles (dark, round objects), microinclusions (tiny defocused spots), and a grain boundary pinned by a bubble. The width of the image is 700 micrometers.

  18. Additive threats from pathogens, climate and land-use change for global amphibian diversity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hof, Christian; Bastos Araujo, Miguel; Jetz, Walter

    2011-01-01

    Amphibian population declines far exceed those of other vertebrate groups, with 30% of all species listed as threatened by the International Union for Conservation of Nature. The causes of these declines are a matter of continued research, but probably include climate change, land-use change...... to be found in Africa, parts of northern South America and the Andes. Regions with the highest projected impact of land-use and climate change coincide, but there is little spatial overlap with regions highly threatened by the fungal disease. Overall, the areas harbouring the richest amphibian faunas...... and spread of the pathogenic fungal disease chytridiomycosis. Here we assess the spatial distribution and interactions of these primary threats in relation to the global distribution of amphibian species. We show that the greatest proportions of species negatively affected by climate change are projected...

  19. Synthesis in land change science

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Magliocca, Nicholas R.; Rudel, Thomas K.; Verburg, Peter H.

    2015-01-01

    Global and regional economic and environmental changes are increasingly influencing local land-use, livelihoods, and ecosystems. At the same time, cumulative local land changes are driving global and regional changes in biodiversity and the environment. To understand the causes and consequences...... of these changes, land change science (LCS) draws on a wide array synthetic and meta-study techniques to generate global and regional knowledge from local case studies of land change. Here, we review the characteristics and applications of synthesis methods in LCS and assess the current state of synthetic research...... based on a meta-analysis of synthesis studies from 1995 to 2012. Publication of synthesis research is accelerating, with a clear trend toward increasingly sophisticated and quantitative methods, including meta-analysis. Detailed trends in synthesis objectives, methods, and land change phenomena...

  20. Data records of biophysical products in the Copernicus Global Land Service

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bydekerke, L.; Smets, B.; Swinnen, E.; Lacaze, R. N.; Calvet, J. C.; Baret, F.; camacho De Coca, F.; Roujean, J. L.; Tansey, K.; Coelho, S.; Jann, A.; Paulik, C.; Verger, A.

    2014-12-01

    From 1stJanuary 2013, the Copernicus Global Land service provides continuously a set of bio-geophysical variables describing, over the whole globe, the vegetation dynamic, the energy budget at the continental surface and some components of the water cycle. These generic products serve numerous applications such as agriculture and food security monitoring, weather forecast, climate change impact studies, water, forest and natural resources management. The portfolio contains Essential Climate Variables like Leaf Area Index (LAI), the Fraction of PAR absorbed by the vegetation (FAPAR), surface albedo, Land Surface Temperature, soil moisture, burnt areas, areas of water bodies, and additional vegetation indices. They are generated daily on a reliable and automatic basis from Earth Observation satellite data. Beside this timely production, the available historical archives, up to 16 years for SPOT-VEGETATION, have been processed using the same innovative algorithms. For a number of ECVs, the algorithms are adapted to work with NOAA-AVHRR as input to extend the time series up to 1982. The service continuity is provided in two parallel paths. On one hand, the existing retrieval methodologies are adapted to use the new PROBA-V sensor, fully consistent with SPOT-VEGETATION, and as such extends the time-series at 1km spatial resolution. On the other hand, the operation is moving to the finer resolution of PROBA-V (300m), while maintaining consistency with the 1km series. The data records are documented in terms of the physical methodologies, the technical properties, and the results of validation exercises. The service performs a continuous quality monitoring on three levels: technical, scientific and cross-cutting, following where possible the rules of CEOS/LPV and comparing with both in-situ and other datasets, e.g. MODIS. The service is improved through feedback from an independent expert team performing regular independent reviews and providing user feedback. All